Joyce124的个人主页 - 老虎社区

Joyce124

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2021-12-24

$恒大汽车(00708)$在涨四五天就回本了[流泪] [流泪] [流泪] [流泪] [流泪] [流泪] [流泪] [流泪] [流泪] 好苦[流泪] [流泪] [流泪] [流泪] [流泪] [流泪]

2021-12-03

$恒大汽车(00708)$今天60个点！冲冲

2021-11-29

$恒大汽车(00708)$明天的恒车会不会涨三十个点？许总想翻身把恒车推到特斯拉一半价位，不要说翻身了！人生癫峰都不在话下！

2021-12-28

$恒大汽车(00708)$今天最少涨四十个点！但是我还是不能回本[笑哭] [笑哭] [笑哭] [捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸]

2022-01-03

$恒大汽车(00708)$今天肯定最少20个点！

2021-12-23

$恒大汽车(00708)$在涨多几天就回本了[笑哭] [笑哭] [笑哭] [笑哭] [笑哭] [笑哭] [笑哭]

2021-12-21

$恒大汽车(00708)$贫也好败也好，我会为自己眼光与选择买单！

2021-12-06

$恒大汽车(00708)$挨最狠的刀！食最大的肉

2021-12-02

$恒大汽车(00708)$希望今年最错的不是四块三上车！我平时买的那三个股票这几天都轮流大涨[笑哭] [捂脸]

2021-12-30

$恒大汽车(00708)$需要点时间！

2021-12-23

$恒大汽车(00708)$预祝恒驰直特斯拉！[强] [强] [强] [强] [强] [强] [666] [666] [666] [666] [666]

2021-12-08

$恒大汽车(00708)$我就等竞价时段百分之二百，收盘百分之三百五至四百！这样想一点都不过分吧？

2022-03-15

$恒生指数(HSI)$俄罗斯被欧盟制裁都没你跌的惨！[笑哭] [笑哭] [笑哭] [笑哭] [笑哭] [笑哭]

2022-01-03

$恒大汽车(00708)$2022第一个交易日！就这么难看？恒大关恒车什么事！又不建房子🏠！

2021-12-03

$恒大汽车(00708)$会有200百起步的那一天的[666] [666] [666] [666] [比心] [比心] [比心] [看涨] [看涨] [看涨] [看涨]

2021-11-30

$恒大汽车(00708)$恒车上五六百一洗前耻！2W亿债务算什么！

2022-07-21

T思L不骗穷人！

别被特斯拉财报骗了，新能源车的下半年未必一帆风顺

2021-12-20

$恒大汽车(00708)$漂亮[强] [强] [强] [强] [强]

2021-09-30

$恒大汽车(00708)$40米九菜刀已经准备好[笑哭] [笑哭] [笑哭]

2022-05-04

$汇森家居(02127)$这是发现昨天涨错了么？今天悬崖勒马？还好没钱融资！不然今天又又又又又又又被强平！下次拉涨的时候小心点，不要在搞错了！浪费心情！

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怎么回事？什么情况？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/653977613","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1343,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":667742943,"gmtCreate":1669184411182,"gmtModify":1669184413690,"author":{"id":"3584064374196548","authorId":"3584064374196548","name":"Joyce124","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"22块钱你要多少？你先把钱给我！","listText":"22块钱你要多少？你先把钱给我！","text":"22块钱你要多少？你先把钱给我！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/667742943","repostId":"2285942008","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2285942008","pubTimestamp":1669183811,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2285942008?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-11-23 14:10","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"中信证券：维持京东物流(02618)“买入”评级 目标价22港元","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2285942008","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研究报告称，维持京东物流“买入”评级，长期看预计盈利将明显提升，2024年核心净利率有望达1.5%，目标价22港元。同时预计公司全年能够实现经调净利盈亏平衡，德邦将进一步贡献正利润。此外，通过德邦获得覆盖全国的快运网络，期待双方在客户和网络方面协同效应的不断释放，该行预计德邦全年有望贡献正利润。","content":"<html><body><p>智通财经APP获悉，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">中信证券</a>发布研究报告称，维持<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02618\">京东物流</a>(02618)“买入”评级，长期看预计盈利将明显提升，2024年核心净利率有望达1.5%，目标价22港元。公司2022Q3实现non-ifrs净利润4.5亿元，同比扭亏。同期外部收入占比增长至69.5%，同时布局直播电商物流，该行预计此板块收入占比或持续提升。另2022Q3毛利率同比提升2.5pcts至7.4%，预计随着规模效应释放、服务能力升级以及成本管理持续，盈利水平有望进一步提升。同时预计公司(不含德邦)全年能够实现经调净利盈亏平衡，德邦将进一步贡献正利润。</p><p>报告中称，截至2022年9月底，公司(含德邦)运营1500+仓库，仓储网络管理面积超过3000万平方米(含云仓)，覆盖航空货运航线1000+条，2022年8月底获得民航局颁布的CCAR-121部《航空承运人运行合格证》，标志<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>物流航空正式投运。目前南通往返北京的自有全货机航线已正式运营。京东航空有望从成本、效率等方面为供应链服务提供支撑，提高资源壁垒和业务竞争力。此外，通过德邦获得覆盖全国的快运网络，期待双方在客户和网络方面协同效应的不断释放，该行预计德邦全年有望贡献正利润。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>中信证券：维持京东物流(02618)“买入”评级 目标价22港元</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n中信证券：维持京东物流(02618)“买入”评级 目标价22港元\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-23 14:10 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/835901.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研究报告称，维持京东物流(02618)“买入”评级，长期看预计盈利将明显提升，2024年核心净利率有望达1.5%，目标价22港元。公司2022Q3实现non-ifrs净利润4.5亿元，同比扭亏。同期外部收入占比增长至69.5%，同时布局直播电商物流，该行预计此板块收入占比或持续提升。另2022Q3毛利率同比提升2.5pcts至7.4%，预计随着规模效应释放、服务能力...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/835901.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"02618":"京东物流","JD":"京东"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/835901.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2285942008","content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研究报告称，维持京东物流(02618)“买入”评级，长期看预计盈利将明显提升，2024年核心净利率有望达1.5%，目标价22港元。公司2022Q3实现non-ifrs净利润4.5亿元，同比扭亏。同期外部收入占比增长至69.5%，同时布局直播电商物流，该行预计此板块收入占比或持续提升。另2022Q3毛利率同比提升2.5pcts至7.4%，预计随着规模效应释放、服务能力升级以及成本管理持续，盈利水平有望进一步提升。同时预计公司(不含德邦)全年能够实现经调净利盈亏平衡，德邦将进一步贡献正利润。报告中称，截至2022年9月底，公司(含德邦)运营1500+仓库，仓储网络管理面积超过3000万平方米(含云仓)，覆盖航空货运航线1000+条，2022年8月底获得民航局颁布的CCAR-121部《航空承运人运行合格证》，标志京东物流航空正式投运。目前南通往返北京的自有全货机航线已正式运营。京东航空有望从成本、效率等方面为供应链服务提供支撑，提高资源壁垒和业务竞争力。此外，通过德邦获得覆盖全国的快运网络，期待双方在客户和网络方面协同效应的不断释放，该行预计德邦全年有望贡献正利润。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1188,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":686579468,"gmtCreate":1658413286655,"gmtModify":1704870455011,"author":{"id":"3584064374196548","authorId":"3584064374196548","name":"Joyce124","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"T思L不骗穷人！","listText":"T思L不骗穷人！","text":"T思L不骗穷人！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/686579468","repostId":"1107960522","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107960522","pubTimestamp":1658409897,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1107960522?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-07-21 21:24","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"别被特斯拉财报骗了，新能源车的下半年未必一帆风顺","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107960522","media":"格隆汇","summary":"特斯拉乃至中国的新势力们，还会像之前那么顺利吗？","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>翘首以盼的特斯拉财报，终于来到眼前。</p><p>对于这份财报，有些已经料到，比如交付量下滑，营收下滑，毛利率下滑，结束了好多个季度的单边上涨态势，特别是Q2的交付量早于财报前就已经公布，研究员大致算一下，便可窥见全貌；有些没有料到，净利润居然还能超出预期，同比翻了近一倍。</p><p>客观地说，这是一份平稳的财报，好坏对冲后，市场大致也能够接受。</p><p>但是，在目前仍然错综复杂的宏观经济形势下，特斯拉乃至中国的新势力们，还会像之前那么顺利吗？</p><p><b>01喜忧参半</b></p><p>首先说一下这个财报的几个关键点。</p><p>如市场最为关注的交付量下滑，这对于长时间习惯了增长模式的特斯拉投资者，是不太容易接受的事实。不过，理性地看，交付量下滑主要是上海疫情的影响，这个问题几乎所有在中国做生产的汽车厂商都一样，而且特斯拉股价下跌了如此之多，一定程度上也反映了这个结果。</p><p>所以，Q2交付量这个问题其实不用过于敏感，疫情解封后的6月，特斯拉已经出现了强势反弹。真正存在不确定性的，是下半年或者更长的时间。按照特斯拉自己的说法，手头的订单还很多，基本不用担心生意，而更应该担忧自己能不能造出车来及时交付，高管在电话会议上也重申了50%的年增长率，尽管明白当中有困难。另外，马斯克的经营能力，以及特斯拉的执行力也是值得称道的，典型的证据就是裁员果断、对供应链以及成本的控制，使得特斯拉在Q2如此困难的宏观环境下，依然能够取得超预期的利润。</p><p><b>这可以算是喜的一面。</b></p><p>但是，从欧美高通胀甚至可能出现经济危机的角度出发，特斯拉的订单在未来1-2年内还能够维持这么高，就得打上一个问号了，如果真的发生经济危机，订单量必定会有所收缩，营收端的压力就会浮现，这必然会给公司的增长前景蒙上阴影。</p><p><b>这是忧的一面。</b></p><p>从产能端，特斯拉4家超级工厂的总产能在200万左右，平均每个50万辆，现在又传出上海工厂扩建到75万辆，满打满算也就是215万辆，按照去年93万的出厂量，未来要实现每年50%的增长，至少在产能端是具备能力的，当然还要看柏林和奥斯汀工厂的爬坡情况。</p><p>而另外两个较为受关注的盈利点——<b>FSD和新车型</b>，今年估计都没有什么值得期待的地方。</p><p>关于FSD，马斯克食言已经很多次，市场基本也麻木了，在个人采访中，马斯克也多次承认，很多关注FSD的“曙光”最后都被证明是假的，要真正解决FSD所面临的问题，其实就是解决真实世界的人工智能问题。说得更直白一点，是要真正实现AI代替人脑，这个事，至少现在看来还没有谁敢拍胸口，说自己能够做到的。其实，FSD这种事是非常困难的，试想一下，在一个高速行驶的车里自动驾驶，出事就是人命观天，马虎不得。</p><p>所以，估值体系里如果过于乐观将FSD纳入，那就很可能是估值泡沫。</p><p>至于新车型，今年铁定没戏，电话会议上说的，9月份能够看到机器人，但新车型，例如皮卡，得明年才能看到。实际上，即使推出新车型，我也很怀疑特斯拉的产能能否应付得了，尤其是Model 3和Model Y都这么多未完成的订单，除非新建工厂，否则基本不可能应付得来，即使真的量产，也只是小规模。</p><p>特斯拉高管对于新建工厂计划的回应不多，目前的工作重点还在于两家新工厂的产能爬坡，导致了市场对于特斯拉未来的增长预期有所弱化，这也是财报公布后股价短暂拉升又迅速回落的原因，很明显，市场正在重新给特斯拉估值。</p><p><b>从基本面上看，特斯拉没有太大问题，现在的压制因素主要来自宏观经济，宏观层面没有触底复苏，特斯拉的股价就缺乏上涨动力，想要回到年初的高峰位置，更加是困难重重。</b></p><p>今年下半年，大概率还是在过去一个多月的区间里磨来磨去，直到全球经济有转机。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/988425ec83176d94f2f8428576e8e8d0\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>02国内新势力几何？</b></p><p>说到特斯拉，就不得不提国内的新能源车企。</p><p><b>现在大家都还沉浸在6月份强劲的销量数据上，似乎一切都没什么好担心的，但是，昨天一个新势力的调研报告出炉，当中提到下半年会降价促销，以完成全年的销售任务。</b></p><p>这个看似不大不小的动作，其实蕴含的信息量非常巨大。电动车集体提价还是几个月的事，这么快就反转，可以感受得到车企所面临的销售压力，终极问题就在于，到底新能源汽车是不是如我们所见的乐观？</p><p>当然，这家新势力的降价促销实属无奈之举，因为今年时间过半，但销售任务只完成了1/3，同时该车企还要面对三大新势力亏损最大这个事实，如果要完成全年任务，等于说下半年的销量要是上半年的2倍，这个挑战其实是很大的，虽然说下半年的车市才是销售旺季，但鉴于现在宏观环境和居民消费力，汽车这种大宗消费品能否继续维持高增，就存在很多不确定性。同时，很多车企都不断推出新车去抢占新能源市场，虽然新势力们还头顶光环，但冷暖只有它们自己才知道。</p><p>回看5、6月份的电动车为何销售强劲回升，其实原因只有一个，<b>政策刺激</b>。如果政策继续加码，那下半年新能源汽车的销售不会有太大问题，不过，从昨天总理的表态来看，下半年的经济刺激政策即使有，也不会过猛。换句话说，国家对于电动车的刺激，能做到现在这个份上，基本也已经尽力了的，再希望国家拿钱出来就不现实了。</p><p>当然，看多者还有一个信仰，那就是<b>抢食燃油车的蛋糕</b>。</p><p>根据中国汽车工业协会披露的数据，今年上半年燃油车的总体销量（乘用车和商用车）按年下跌19.1%。更重要的是，燃油车作为旧时代的代表，几乎没有还手之力，只能眼睁睁看着地盘被蚕食。如果按照这个剧本演下去，似乎新能源汽车也没有值得担心的，但正如前文所言，燃油车企的变量在于，它们也在迫不及待地挤进新能源汽车赛道，这必然会加剧市场竞争，赛道本身有增长没错，但每家的份额能不能增长就不一定了。</p><p>对于车企而言，前端有宏观经济、居民消费的压力，又有锂矿造成的成本压力，对于下半年，不宜太乐观。现在，整个港A股新能源汽车板块都处于回调之中，新势力们的股价在6月末触顶之后，已经跌了大半个月，反映的正是这样一种预期。</p><p>今年新能源汽车的整体销量，市场上的预期大概是550万辆，现在的股价，基本也反映了这种预期，除非政策上再有动作支持，否则，新势力们的上涨动力会很弱，顶多就是来回波动一下。</p><p><b>03结语</b></p><p>眼下的市场，确实缺乏新的主线。</p><p><b>在宏观经济未有周期性向上之时，走势都会反复震荡，对于投资者而言，这会是相当磨人的一个时期，虽然中间会有反弹，但到一定程度，常常戛然而止，踏空、被套就会经常发生。</b></p><p>作为极少数拥有广阔增长空间的行业，新能源汽车一直受到资金追捧，但是资金过度涌入，又往往容易推高估值，造成阶段性泡沫，上涨阶段获利容易，但回调阶段又很容易套人。如果是长线资金，在低位进入，可以无视股价波动，但是大部分投资者，尤其是散户，是不可能做到的。</p><p>新能源汽车板块何时再进入上涨阶段，今年或者都不容易看到了。因为要再来一次6月份的上涨，要么像4月份那样，崩一次，要么经济重新进入上涨周期，再有，就是成本端出现大幅下滑，例如锂矿价格大幅回落，而这几个因素，出现的可能性都不大。</p><p>新能源汽车的财报，仍然耀眼，但别被财报骗了，下半年的新能源汽车的股价，还是谨慎为好。</p></body></html>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>别被特斯拉财报骗了，新能源车的下半年未必一帆风顺</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n别被特斯拉财报骗了，新能源车的下半年未必一帆风顺\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-21 21:24 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/540787><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>翘首以盼的特斯拉财报，终于来到眼前。对于这份财报，有些已经料到，比如交付量下滑，营收下滑，毛利率下滑，结束了好多个季度的单边上涨态势，特别是Q2的交付量早于财报前就已经公布，研究员大致算一下，便可窥见全貌；有些没有料到，净利润居然还能超出预期，同比翻了近一倍。客观地说，这是一份平稳的财报，好坏对冲后，市场大致也能够接受。但是，在目前仍然错综复杂的宏观经济形势下，特斯拉乃至中国的新势力们，还会像之前...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/540787\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/968c7f56416ea450ba452ed25e324d2e","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/540787","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"1107960522","content_text":"翘首以盼的特斯拉财报，终于来到眼前。对于这份财报，有些已经料到，比如交付量下滑，营收下滑，毛利率下滑，结束了好多个季度的单边上涨态势，特别是Q2的交付量早于财报前就已经公布，研究员大致算一下，便可窥见全貌；有些没有料到，净利润居然还能超出预期，同比翻了近一倍。客观地说，这是一份平稳的财报，好坏对冲后，市场大致也能够接受。但是，在目前仍然错综复杂的宏观经济形势下，特斯拉乃至中国的新势力们，还会像之前那么顺利吗？01喜忧参半首先说一下这个财报的几个关键点。如市场最为关注的交付量下滑，这对于长时间习惯了增长模式的特斯拉投资者，是不太容易接受的事实。不过，理性地看，交付量下滑主要是上海疫情的影响，这个问题几乎所有在中国做生产的汽车厂商都一样，而且特斯拉股价下跌了如此之多，一定程度上也反映了这个结果。所以，Q2交付量这个问题其实不用过于敏感，疫情解封后的6月，特斯拉已经出现了强势反弹。真正存在不确定性的，是下半年或者更长的时间。按照特斯拉自己的说法，手头的订单还很多，基本不用担心生意，而更应该担忧自己能不能造出车来及时交付，高管在电话会议上也重申了50%的年增长率，尽管明白当中有困难。另外，马斯克的经营能力，以及特斯拉的执行力也是值得称道的，典型的证据就是裁员果断、对供应链以及成本的控制，使得特斯拉在Q2如此困难的宏观环境下，依然能够取得超预期的利润。这可以算是喜的一面。但是，从欧美高通胀甚至可能出现经济危机的角度出发，特斯拉的订单在未来1-2年内还能够维持这么高，就得打上一个问号了，如果真的发生经济危机，订单量必定会有所收缩，营收端的压力就会浮现，这必然会给公司的增长前景蒙上阴影。这是忧的一面。从产能端，特斯拉4家超级工厂的总产能在200万左右，平均每个50万辆，现在又传出上海工厂扩建到75万辆，满打满算也就是215万辆，按照去年93万的出厂量，未来要实现每年50%的增长，至少在产能端是具备能力的，当然还要看柏林和奥斯汀工厂的爬坡情况。而另外两个较为受关注的盈利点——FSD和新车型，今年估计都没有什么值得期待的地方。关于FSD，马斯克食言已经很多次，市场基本也麻木了，在个人采访中，马斯克也多次承认，很多关注FSD的“曙光”最后都被证明是假的，要真正解决FSD所面临的问题，其实就是解决真实世界的人工智能问题。说得更直白一点，是要真正实现AI代替人脑，这个事，至少现在看来还没有谁敢拍胸口，说自己能够做到的。其实，FSD这种事是非常困难的，试想一下，在一个高速行驶的车里自动驾驶，出事就是人命观天，马虎不得。所以，估值体系里如果过于乐观将FSD纳入，那就很可能是估值泡沫。至于新车型，今年铁定没戏，电话会议上说的，9月份能够看到机器人，但新车型，例如皮卡，得明年才能看到。实际上，即使推出新车型，我也很怀疑特斯拉的产能能否应付得了，尤其是Model 3和Model Y都这么多未完成的订单，除非新建工厂，否则基本不可能应付得来，即使真的量产，也只是小规模。特斯拉高管对于新建工厂计划的回应不多，目前的工作重点还在于两家新工厂的产能爬坡，导致了市场对于特斯拉未来的增长预期有所弱化，这也是财报公布后股价短暂拉升又迅速回落的原因，很明显，市场正在重新给特斯拉估值。从基本面上看，特斯拉没有太大问题，现在的压制因素主要来自宏观经济，宏观层面没有触底复苏，特斯拉的股价就缺乏上涨动力，想要回到年初的高峰位置，更加是困难重重。今年下半年，大概率还是在过去一个多月的区间里磨来磨去，直到全球经济有转机。02国内新势力几何？说到特斯拉，就不得不提国内的新能源车企。现在大家都还沉浸在6月份强劲的销量数据上，似乎一切都没什么好担心的，但是，昨天一个新势力的调研报告出炉，当中提到下半年会降价促销，以完成全年的销售任务。这个看似不大不小的动作，其实蕴含的信息量非常巨大。电动车集体提价还是几个月的事，这么快就反转，可以感受得到车企所面临的销售压力，终极问题就在于，到底新能源汽车是不是如我们所见的乐观？当然，这家新势力的降价促销实属无奈之举，因为今年时间过半，但销售任务只完成了1/3，同时该车企还要面对三大新势力亏损最大这个事实，如果要完成全年任务，等于说下半年的销量要是上半年的2倍，这个挑战其实是很大的，虽然说下半年的车市才是销售旺季，但鉴于现在宏观环境和居民消费力，汽车这种大宗消费品能否继续维持高增，就存在很多不确定性。同时，很多车企都不断推出新车去抢占新能源市场，虽然新势力们还头顶光环，但冷暖只有它们自己才知道。回看5、6月份的电动车为何销售强劲回升，其实原因只有一个，政策刺激。如果政策继续加码，那下半年新能源汽车的销售不会有太大问题，不过，从昨天总理的表态来看，下半年的经济刺激政策即使有，也不会过猛。换句话说，国家对于电动车的刺激，能做到现在这个份上，基本也已经尽力了的，再希望国家拿钱出来就不现实了。当然，看多者还有一个信仰，那就是抢食燃油车的蛋糕。根据中国汽车工业协会披露的数据，今年上半年燃油车的总体销量（乘用车和商用车）按年下跌19.1%。更重要的是，燃油车作为旧时代的代表，几乎没有还手之力，只能眼睁睁看着地盘被蚕食。如果按照这个剧本演下去，似乎新能源汽车也没有值得担心的，但正如前文所言，燃油车企的变量在于，它们也在迫不及待地挤进新能源汽车赛道，这必然会加剧市场竞争，赛道本身有增长没错，但每家的份额能不能增长就不一定了。对于车企而言，前端有宏观经济、居民消费的压力，又有锂矿造成的成本压力，对于下半年，不宜太乐观。现在，整个港A股新能源汽车板块都处于回调之中，新势力们的股价在6月末触顶之后，已经跌了大半个月，反映的正是这样一种预期。今年新能源汽车的整体销量，市场上的预期大概是550万辆，现在的股价，基本也反映了这种预期，除非政策上再有动作支持，否则，新势力们的上涨动力会很弱，顶多就是来回波动一下。03结语眼下的市场，确实缺乏新的主线。在宏观经济未有周期性向上之时，走势都会反复震荡，对于投资者而言，这会是相当磨人的一个时期，虽然中间会有反弹，但到一定程度，常常戛然而止，踏空、被套就会经常发生。作为极少数拥有广阔增长空间的行业，新能源汽车一直受到资金追捧，但是资金过度涌入，又往往容易推高估值，造成阶段性泡沫，上涨阶段获利容易，但回调阶段又很容易套人。如果是长线资金，在低位进入，可以无视股价波动，但是大部分投资者，尤其是散户，是不可能做到的。新能源汽车板块何时再进入上涨阶段，今年或者都不容易看到了。因为要再来一次6月份的上涨，要么像4月份那样，崩一次，要么经济重新进入上涨周期，再有，就是成本端出现大幅下滑，例如锂矿价格大幅回落，而这几个因素，出现的可能性都不大。新能源汽车的财报，仍然耀眼，但别被财报骗了，下半年的新能源汽车的股价，还是谨慎为好。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":799,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":612649149,"gmtCreate":1652335792181,"gmtModify":1652335792181,"author":{"id":"3584064374196548","authorId":"3584064374196548","name":"Joyce124","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00708\">$恒大汽车(00708)$</a>恒车上五六百一洗前耻！2W亿债务算什么！","text":"$恒大汽车(00708)$恒车上五六百一洗前耻！2W亿债务算什么！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/609970998","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":340,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":686579468,"gmtCreate":1658413286655,"gmtModify":1704870455011,"author":{"id":"3584064374196548","authorId":"3584064374196548","name":"Joyce124","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"T思L不骗穷人！","listText":"T思L不骗穷人！","text":"T思L不骗穷人！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/686579468","repostId":"1107960522","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107960522","pubTimestamp":1658409897,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1107960522?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-07-21 21:24","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"别被特斯拉财报骗了，新能源车的下半年未必一帆风顺","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107960522","media":"格隆汇","summary":"特斯拉乃至中国的新势力们，还会像之前那么顺利吗？","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>翘首以盼的特斯拉财报，终于来到眼前。</p><p>对于这份财报，有些已经料到，比如交付量下滑，营收下滑，毛利率下滑，结束了好多个季度的单边上涨态势，特别是Q2的交付量早于财报前就已经公布，研究员大致算一下，便可窥见全貌；有些没有料到，净利润居然还能超出预期，同比翻了近一倍。</p><p>客观地说，这是一份平稳的财报，好坏对冲后，市场大致也能够接受。</p><p>但是，在目前仍然错综复杂的宏观经济形势下，特斯拉乃至中国的新势力们，还会像之前那么顺利吗？</p><p><b>01喜忧参半</b></p><p>首先说一下这个财报的几个关键点。</p><p>如市场最为关注的交付量下滑，这对于长时间习惯了增长模式的特斯拉投资者，是不太容易接受的事实。不过，理性地看，交付量下滑主要是上海疫情的影响，这个问题几乎所有在中国做生产的汽车厂商都一样，而且特斯拉股价下跌了如此之多，一定程度上也反映了这个结果。</p><p>所以，Q2交付量这个问题其实不用过于敏感，疫情解封后的6月，特斯拉已经出现了强势反弹。真正存在不确定性的，是下半年或者更长的时间。按照特斯拉自己的说法，手头的订单还很多，基本不用担心生意，而更应该担忧自己能不能造出车来及时交付，高管在电话会议上也重申了50%的年增长率，尽管明白当中有困难。另外，马斯克的经营能力，以及特斯拉的执行力也是值得称道的，典型的证据就是裁员果断、对供应链以及成本的控制，使得特斯拉在Q2如此困难的宏观环境下，依然能够取得超预期的利润。</p><p><b>这可以算是喜的一面。</b></p><p>但是，从欧美高通胀甚至可能出现经济危机的角度出发，特斯拉的订单在未来1-2年内还能够维持这么高，就得打上一个问号了，如果真的发生经济危机，订单量必定会有所收缩，营收端的压力就会浮现，这必然会给公司的增长前景蒙上阴影。</p><p><b>这是忧的一面。</b></p><p>从产能端，特斯拉4家超级工厂的总产能在200万左右，平均每个50万辆，现在又传出上海工厂扩建到75万辆，满打满算也就是215万辆，按照去年93万的出厂量，未来要实现每年50%的增长，至少在产能端是具备能力的，当然还要看柏林和奥斯汀工厂的爬坡情况。</p><p>而另外两个较为受关注的盈利点——<b>FSD和新车型</b>，今年估计都没有什么值得期待的地方。</p><p>关于FSD，马斯克食言已经很多次，市场基本也麻木了，在个人采访中，马斯克也多次承认，很多关注FSD的“曙光”最后都被证明是假的，要真正解决FSD所面临的问题，其实就是解决真实世界的人工智能问题。说得更直白一点，是要真正实现AI代替人脑，这个事，至少现在看来还没有谁敢拍胸口，说自己能够做到的。其实，FSD这种事是非常困难的，试想一下，在一个高速行驶的车里自动驾驶，出事就是人命观天，马虎不得。</p><p>所以，估值体系里如果过于乐观将FSD纳入，那就很可能是估值泡沫。</p><p>至于新车型，今年铁定没戏，电话会议上说的，9月份能够看到机器人，但新车型，例如皮卡，得明年才能看到。实际上，即使推出新车型，我也很怀疑特斯拉的产能能否应付得了，尤其是Model 3和Model Y都这么多未完成的订单，除非新建工厂，否则基本不可能应付得来，即使真的量产，也只是小规模。</p><p>特斯拉高管对于新建工厂计划的回应不多，目前的工作重点还在于两家新工厂的产能爬坡，导致了市场对于特斯拉未来的增长预期有所弱化，这也是财报公布后股价短暂拉升又迅速回落的原因，很明显，市场正在重新给特斯拉估值。</p><p><b>从基本面上看，特斯拉没有太大问题，现在的压制因素主要来自宏观经济，宏观层面没有触底复苏，特斯拉的股价就缺乏上涨动力，想要回到年初的高峰位置，更加是困难重重。</b></p><p>今年下半年，大概率还是在过去一个多月的区间里磨来磨去，直到全球经济有转机。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/988425ec83176d94f2f8428576e8e8d0\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>02国内新势力几何？</b></p><p>说到特斯拉，就不得不提国内的新能源车企。</p><p><b>现在大家都还沉浸在6月份强劲的销量数据上，似乎一切都没什么好担心的，但是，昨天一个新势力的调研报告出炉，当中提到下半年会降价促销，以完成全年的销售任务。</b></p><p>这个看似不大不小的动作，其实蕴含的信息量非常巨大。电动车集体提价还是几个月的事，这么快就反转，可以感受得到车企所面临的销售压力，终极问题就在于，到底新能源汽车是不是如我们所见的乐观？</p><p>当然，这家新势力的降价促销实属无奈之举，因为今年时间过半，但销售任务只完成了1/3，同时该车企还要面对三大新势力亏损最大这个事实，如果要完成全年任务，等于说下半年的销量要是上半年的2倍，这个挑战其实是很大的，虽然说下半年的车市才是销售旺季，但鉴于现在宏观环境和居民消费力，汽车这种大宗消费品能否继续维持高增，就存在很多不确定性。同时，很多车企都不断推出新车去抢占新能源市场，虽然新势力们还头顶光环，但冷暖只有它们自己才知道。</p><p>回看5、6月份的电动车为何销售强劲回升，其实原因只有一个，<b>政策刺激</b>。如果政策继续加码，那下半年新能源汽车的销售不会有太大问题，不过，从昨天总理的表态来看，下半年的经济刺激政策即使有，也不会过猛。换句话说，国家对于电动车的刺激，能做到现在这个份上，基本也已经尽力了的，再希望国家拿钱出来就不现实了。</p><p>当然，看多者还有一个信仰，那就是<b>抢食燃油车的蛋糕</b>。</p><p>根据中国汽车工业协会披露的数据，今年上半年燃油车的总体销量（乘用车和商用车）按年下跌19.1%。更重要的是，燃油车作为旧时代的代表，几乎没有还手之力，只能眼睁睁看着地盘被蚕食。如果按照这个剧本演下去，似乎新能源汽车也没有值得担心的，但正如前文所言，燃油车企的变量在于，它们也在迫不及待地挤进新能源汽车赛道，这必然会加剧市场竞争，赛道本身有增长没错，但每家的份额能不能增长就不一定了。</p><p>对于车企而言，前端有宏观经济、居民消费的压力，又有锂矿造成的成本压力，对于下半年，不宜太乐观。现在，整个港A股新能源汽车板块都处于回调之中，新势力们的股价在6月末触顶之后，已经跌了大半个月，反映的正是这样一种预期。</p><p>今年新能源汽车的整体销量，市场上的预期大概是550万辆，现在的股价，基本也反映了这种预期，除非政策上再有动作支持，否则，新势力们的上涨动力会很弱，顶多就是来回波动一下。</p><p><b>03结语</b></p><p>眼下的市场，确实缺乏新的主线。</p><p><b>在宏观经济未有周期性向上之时，走势都会反复震荡，对于投资者而言，这会是相当磨人的一个时期，虽然中间会有反弹，但到一定程度，常常戛然而止，踏空、被套就会经常发生。</b></p><p>作为极少数拥有广阔增长空间的行业，新能源汽车一直受到资金追捧，但是资金过度涌入，又往往容易推高估值，造成阶段性泡沫，上涨阶段获利容易，但回调阶段又很容易套人。如果是长线资金，在低位进入，可以无视股价波动，但是大部分投资者，尤其是散户，是不可能做到的。</p><p>新能源汽车板块何时再进入上涨阶段，今年或者都不容易看到了。因为要再来一次6月份的上涨，要么像4月份那样，崩一次，要么经济重新进入上涨周期，再有，就是成本端出现大幅下滑，例如锂矿价格大幅回落，而这几个因素，出现的可能性都不大。</p><p>新能源汽车的财报，仍然耀眼，但别被财报骗了，下半年的新能源汽车的股价，还是谨慎为好。</p></body></html>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>别被特斯拉财报骗了，新能源车的下半年未必一帆风顺</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n别被特斯拉财报骗了，新能源车的下半年未必一帆风顺\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-21 21:24 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/540787><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>翘首以盼的特斯拉财报，终于来到眼前。对于这份财报，有些已经料到，比如交付量下滑，营收下滑，毛利率下滑，结束了好多个季度的单边上涨态势，特别是Q2的交付量早于财报前就已经公布，研究员大致算一下，便可窥见全貌；有些没有料到，净利润居然还能超出预期，同比翻了近一倍。客观地说，这是一份平稳的财报，好坏对冲后，市场大致也能够接受。但是，在目前仍然错综复杂的宏观经济形势下，特斯拉乃至中国的新势力们，还会像之前...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/540787\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/968c7f56416ea450ba452ed25e324d2e","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/540787","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"1107960522","content_text":"翘首以盼的特斯拉财报，终于来到眼前。对于这份财报，有些已经料到，比如交付量下滑，营收下滑，毛利率下滑，结束了好多个季度的单边上涨态势，特别是Q2的交付量早于财报前就已经公布，研究员大致算一下，便可窥见全貌；有些没有料到，净利润居然还能超出预期，同比翻了近一倍。客观地说，这是一份平稳的财报，好坏对冲后，市场大致也能够接受。但是，在目前仍然错综复杂的宏观经济形势下，特斯拉乃至中国的新势力们，还会像之前那么顺利吗？01喜忧参半首先说一下这个财报的几个关键点。如市场最为关注的交付量下滑，这对于长时间习惯了增长模式的特斯拉投资者，是不太容易接受的事实。不过，理性地看，交付量下滑主要是上海疫情的影响，这个问题几乎所有在中国做生产的汽车厂商都一样，而且特斯拉股价下跌了如此之多，一定程度上也反映了这个结果。所以，Q2交付量这个问题其实不用过于敏感，疫情解封后的6月，特斯拉已经出现了强势反弹。真正存在不确定性的，是下半年或者更长的时间。按照特斯拉自己的说法，手头的订单还很多，基本不用担心生意，而更应该担忧自己能不能造出车来及时交付，高管在电话会议上也重申了50%的年增长率，尽管明白当中有困难。另外，马斯克的经营能力，以及特斯拉的执行力也是值得称道的，典型的证据就是裁员果断、对供应链以及成本的控制，使得特斯拉在Q2如此困难的宏观环境下，依然能够取得超预期的利润。这可以算是喜的一面。但是，从欧美高通胀甚至可能出现经济危机的角度出发，特斯拉的订单在未来1-2年内还能够维持这么高，就得打上一个问号了，如果真的发生经济危机，订单量必定会有所收缩，营收端的压力就会浮现，这必然会给公司的增长前景蒙上阴影。这是忧的一面。从产能端，特斯拉4家超级工厂的总产能在200万左右，平均每个50万辆，现在又传出上海工厂扩建到75万辆，满打满算也就是215万辆，按照去年93万的出厂量，未来要实现每年50%的增长，至少在产能端是具备能力的，当然还要看柏林和奥斯汀工厂的爬坡情况。而另外两个较为受关注的盈利点——FSD和新车型，今年估计都没有什么值得期待的地方。关于FSD，马斯克食言已经很多次，市场基本也麻木了，在个人采访中，马斯克也多次承认，很多关注FSD的“曙光”最后都被证明是假的，要真正解决FSD所面临的问题，其实就是解决真实世界的人工智能问题。说得更直白一点，是要真正实现AI代替人脑，这个事，至少现在看来还没有谁敢拍胸口，说自己能够做到的。其实，FSD这种事是非常困难的，试想一下，在一个高速行驶的车里自动驾驶，出事就是人命观天，马虎不得。所以，估值体系里如果过于乐观将FSD纳入，那就很可能是估值泡沫。至于新车型，今年铁定没戏，电话会议上说的，9月份能够看到机器人，但新车型，例如皮卡，得明年才能看到。实际上，即使推出新车型，我也很怀疑特斯拉的产能能否应付得了，尤其是Model 3和Model Y都这么多未完成的订单，除非新建工厂，否则基本不可能应付得来，即使真的量产，也只是小规模。特斯拉高管对于新建工厂计划的回应不多，目前的工作重点还在于两家新工厂的产能爬坡，导致了市场对于特斯拉未来的增长预期有所弱化，这也是财报公布后股价短暂拉升又迅速回落的原因，很明显，市场正在重新给特斯拉估值。从基本面上看，特斯拉没有太大问题，现在的压制因素主要来自宏观经济，宏观层面没有触底复苏，特斯拉的股价就缺乏上涨动力，想要回到年初的高峰位置，更加是困难重重。今年下半年，大概率还是在过去一个多月的区间里磨来磨去，直到全球经济有转机。02国内新势力几何？说到特斯拉，就不得不提国内的新能源车企。现在大家都还沉浸在6月份强劲的销量数据上，似乎一切都没什么好担心的，但是，昨天一个新势力的调研报告出炉，当中提到下半年会降价促销，以完成全年的销售任务。这个看似不大不小的动作，其实蕴含的信息量非常巨大。电动车集体提价还是几个月的事，这么快就反转，可以感受得到车企所面临的销售压力，终极问题就在于，到底新能源汽车是不是如我们所见的乐观？当然，这家新势力的降价促销实属无奈之举，因为今年时间过半，但销售任务只完成了1/3，同时该车企还要面对三大新势力亏损最大这个事实，如果要完成全年任务，等于说下半年的销量要是上半年的2倍，这个挑战其实是很大的，虽然说下半年的车市才是销售旺季，但鉴于现在宏观环境和居民消费力，汽车这种大宗消费品能否继续维持高增，就存在很多不确定性。同时，很多车企都不断推出新车去抢占新能源市场，虽然新势力们还头顶光环，但冷暖只有它们自己才知道。回看5、6月份的电动车为何销售强劲回升，其实原因只有一个，政策刺激。如果政策继续加码，那下半年新能源汽车的销售不会有太大问题，不过，从昨天总理的表态来看，下半年的经济刺激政策即使有，也不会过猛。换句话说，国家对于电动车的刺激，能做到现在这个份上，基本也已经尽力了的，再希望国家拿钱出来就不现实了。当然，看多者还有一个信仰，那就是抢食燃油车的蛋糕。根据中国汽车工业协会披露的数据，今年上半年燃油车的总体销量（乘用车和商用车）按年下跌19.1%。更重要的是，燃油车作为旧时代的代表，几乎没有还手之力，只能眼睁睁看着地盘被蚕食。如果按照这个剧本演下去，似乎新能源汽车也没有值得担心的，但正如前文所言，燃油车企的变量在于，它们也在迫不及待地挤进新能源汽车赛道，这必然会加剧市场竞争，赛道本身有增长没错，但每家的份额能不能增长就不一定了。对于车企而言，前端有宏观经济、居民消费的压力，又有锂矿造成的成本压力，对于下半年，不宜太乐观。现在，整个港A股新能源汽车板块都处于回调之中，新势力们的股价在6月末触顶之后，已经跌了大半个月，反映的正是这样一种预期。今年新能源汽车的整体销量，市场上的预期大概是550万辆，现在的股价，基本也反映了这种预期，除非政策上再有动作支持，否则，新势力们的上涨动力会很弱，顶多就是来回波动一下。03结语眼下的市场，确实缺乏新的主线。在宏观经济未有周期性向上之时，走势都会反复震荡，对于投资者而言，这会是相当磨人的一个时期，虽然中间会有反弹，但到一定程度，常常戛然而止，踏空、被套就会经常发生。作为极少数拥有广阔增长空间的行业，新能源汽车一直受到资金追捧，但是资金过度涌入，又往往容易推高估值，造成阶段性泡沫，上涨阶段获利容易，但回调阶段又很容易套人。如果是长线资金，在低位进入，可以无视股价波动，但是大部分投资者，尤其是散户，是不可能做到的。新能源汽车板块何时再进入上涨阶段，今年或者都不容易看到了。因为要再来一次6月份的上涨，要么像4月份那样，崩一次，要么经济重新进入上涨周期，再有，就是成本端出现大幅下滑，例如锂矿价格大幅回落，而这几个因素，出现的可能性都不大。新能源汽车的财报，仍然耀眼，但别被财报骗了，下半年的新能源汽车的股价，还是谨慎为好。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":799,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":693103208,"gmtCreate":1639979570153,"gmtModify":1639979570153,"author":{"id":"3584064374196548","authorId":"3584064374196548","name":"Joyce124","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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