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DLIM

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DLIM YNWA

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2021-07-18

Alternative proteins is the way forward to a more sustainable eco enviroment and healthy living

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2021-10-19

Alibaba is more than just Ecommerce [强]

Alibaba rose nearly 2% in premarket trading as it unveils one of China’s most advanced chips<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW盘前涨近2%，推出国内最先进芯片之一</blockquote>

2021-07-22

Is he trying to manipulate the market?

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2021-07-28

Market oversold due to fear

Hot Chinese concept stocks continue to rebound<blockquote>热点中概股持续反弹</blockquote>

2021-09-03

Always remember to do your portfolio management

What Will Happen When Trillions In Stimulus Run Out In 2022?<blockquote>2022年数万亿刺激用完会发生什么？</blockquote>

2021-07-23

Maybe could consider Consumer Staples and Discretionary stocks which should have high secular domestic demands

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2021-09-06

Hopefully the management could explore new business opportunities thru aquisition or diversificatio

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2021-08-02

Another manipulating move by Elon [白眼]

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2021-07-18

Potfolio diversification and management is important

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2021-09-30

Great summary

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forward to hear more positive news and future growths plan during Alibaba Investors Day on 16-17&nbsp;December 2021","listText":"Looking forward to hear more positive news and future growths plan during Alibaba Investors Day on 16-17&nbsp;December 2021","text":"Looking forward to hear more positive news and future growths plan during Alibaba Investors Day on 16-17 December 2021","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/872721206","repostId":"1192020197","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1192020197","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1637559822,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1192020197?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-22 13:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"BABA Stock: Despite Earnings Miss, Experts See 54% Upside<blockquote>阿里巴巴股票：尽管盈利未达预期，但专家认为还有54%的上涨空间</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1192020197","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba reported disappointing earnings on November 18. The stock reacted p","content":"<p>Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba reported disappointing earnings on November 18. The stock reacted poorly, sinking 11%. However, Wall Street experts still believe that BABA is undervalued.</p><p><blockquote>中国电子商务巨头阿里巴巴-SW 11月18日公布的财报令人失望。该股反应不佳，下跌11%。然而，华尔街专家仍然认为阿里巴巴被低估了。</blockquote></p><p> Alibabadisappointed on earnings day. On November 18, the Chinese e-commerce behemoth reported a revenue and EPS miss. The stock has been hurting badly throughout 2021 and is nearly 40% lower year-to-date.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴在财报日感到失望。11月18日，这家中国电子商务巨头公布的营收和每股收益均未达到预期。该股在2021年全年遭受重创，今年迄今已下跌近40%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c36e7c677aeece40f848878d4ce5194e\" tg-width=\"685\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Figure 1: Alibaba stock chart price year-to-date.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：阿里巴巴-SW股票图表年初至今的价格。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, Wall Street still sees BABA as a strong buy. After the release of the earnings report, at least three experts have weighed on Alibaba stock. Wall Street Memes takes a closer look at what experts have been saying after Alibaba earnings.</p><p><blockquote>然而，华尔街仍将阿里巴巴视为强力买入。财报发布后，至少有三位专家对阿里巴巴-SW股票进行了评级。Wall Street Memes仔细研究了阿里巴巴-SW财报公布后专家们的言论。</blockquote></p><p> <b>September quarter’s big miss</b></p><p><blockquote><b>九月季度的大失误</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba&nbsp;reported&nbsp;September quarter earnings below Wall Street estimates. Earnings per share missed by $0.19 and revenue missed by $638.6 million. Not only did the company disappoint on fiscal Q2 results, but it also delivered soft guidance as well.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW公布的9月份季度盈利低于华尔街预期。每股收益下降0.19美元，营收下降6.386亿美元。该公司不仅对第二财季业绩感到失望，而且还提供了软指引。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c0700584bcc1964a4ab6d213b455924\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Figure 2: BABA EPS surprise &amp; estimates by quarter.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：按季度划分的阿里巴巴每股收益惊喜和估计。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Weaker-than-expected performance can be blamed on China’s economic&nbsp;slowdown&nbsp;during calendar Q3, in addition to issues like regulations around antitrust and data security. However, Daniel Zhang, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Alibaba Group,said&nbsp;that the longer-term growth goals remain on track.:</p><p><blockquote>除了反垄断和数据安全监管等问题外，业绩弱于预期还可以归咎于中国第三季度经济放缓。不过，阿里巴巴-SW集团董事长兼首席执行官张勇表示，长期增长目标仍在正轨上。：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>This quarter, Alibaba continued to firmly invest into our three strategic pillars of domestic consumption, globalization, and cloud computing to establish solid foundations for our long-term goal of sustainable growth in the future.”</i>  Alibaba’s gloomy view of macroeconomic conditions and the competitive landscape dictated its fiscal year 2022 revenue&nbsp;guidance&nbsp;of $145 billion (RMB930 billion). Alibaba now&nbsp;expects&nbsp;the top line to grow 20% to 23% year-over-year, quite a bit lower than pre-earnings consensus of 28.5%.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>本季度，阿里巴巴-SW继续坚定地投资于我们的国内消费、全球化和云计算三大战略支柱，为我们未来可持续增长的长期目标奠定坚实的基础。”</i>阿里巴巴-SW对宏观经济状况和竞争格局的悲观看法决定了其2022财年收入指引为1450亿美元（9300亿元人民币）。阿里巴巴-SW目前预计营收将同比增长20%至23%，远低于财报前普遍预期的28.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Experts are still bullish</b></p><p><blockquote><b>专家仍看涨</b></blockquote></p><p> Before the September quarter earnings season, sell-side consensus on BABA looked extremely bullish. Based on 22 analyst rating, the stock was considered a strong buy, with only one neutral and one sell recommendation.</p><p><blockquote>在九月季度财报季之前，卖方对阿里巴巴的共识看起来极其乐观。根据22名分析师的评级，该股被认为是强力买入，只有一个中性和一个卖出建议。</blockquote></p><p> After the earnings report, at least three analysts have weighed on BABA stock. Despite all three having lowered their price targets, BABA still has an average projected price of $221.33 among these analysts, which represents 54% upside potential.</p><p><blockquote>财报发布后，至少有三位分析师对阿里巴巴股票表示担忧。尽管这三家公司都下调了目标价，但这些分析师对阿里巴巴的平均预测价仍为221.33美元，这意味着54%的上涨潜力。</blockquote></p><p> CLSA analyst Elinor Leung maintained a buy recommendation on BABA and&nbsp;lowered&nbsp;the company’s price target to $250 from $273, for a still compelling 74% upside potential. The analyst sees September quarter results as disappointing, but also believes that the company’s strategic investments continue to improve.</p><p><blockquote>里昂证券分析师Elinor Leung维持对阿里巴巴的买入建议，并将该公司目标价从273美元下调至250美元，因为该公司仍有74%的上涨潜力。该分析师认为9月份季度业绩令人失望，但也认为该公司的战略投资继续改善。</blockquote></p><p> Citigroup analyst Alicia Yap also&nbsp;lowered&nbsp;the research firm's price target on Alibaba to $234 from $240 for 63% gain potential, but kept a buy recommendation. Mrs. Yap was not surprised to see Alibaba’s miss, especially following a substantial slowdown in NBS retail data for the past two months.</p><p><blockquote>花旗集团分析师Alicia Yap也将该研究公司对阿里巴巴-SW的目标股价从240美元下调至234美元，上涨潜力为63%，但维持买入建议。叶女士对阿里巴巴-SW的表现并不感到惊讶，尤其是在过去两个月国家统计局零售数据大幅放缓之后。</blockquote></p><p> Lastly, Morgan Stanley analyst Gary Yu&nbsp;maintained&nbsp;his buy recommendation on BABA and set the upside opportunity at 25%. Alibaba’s fiscal 2022 revenue growth guidance cut to 20-23% led the analyst to revisit his model and de-risk the price target. The analyst also said:</p><p><blockquote>最后，摩根士丹利分析师Gary Yu维持对阿里巴巴的买入建议，并将上涨机会定为25%。阿里巴巴-SW 2022财年收入增长指引下调至20-23%，导致分析师重新审视他的模型并降低价格目标的风险。该分析师还表示：</blockquote></p><p>   <i>\"We estimate that slightly less than half of the incremental change of RMB50-70 billion comes from lower customer management revenue (CMR) and some from China Retail Others, given lackluster consumption and competition. 3QF22 industry GMV is tracking only at single-digit growth. NBS online retail sales of goods grew 10.3% yoy in October while Tmall Double 11 GMV grew 8.5% yoy. With merchant support, therefore, we expect CMR to grow 4-5% yoy in 2HF22.”</i> </p><p><blockquote><i>“我们估计，鉴于消费和竞争低迷，500-700亿元的增量变化中，略低于一半来自客户管理收入(CMR)下降，部分来自中国零售其他收入。22年第三季度行业GMV仅呈个位数增长。10月份国家统计局网络商品零售额同比增长10.3%，天猫双11 GMV同比增长8.5%。因此，在商家的支持下，我们预计2022年下半年CMR将同比增长4-5%。”</i></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>BABA Stock: Despite Earnings Miss, Experts See 54% Upside<blockquote>阿里巴巴股票：尽管盈利未达预期，但专家认为还有54%的上涨空间</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBABA Stock: Despite Earnings Miss, Experts See 54% Upside<blockquote>阿里巴巴股票：尽管盈利未达预期，但专家认为还有54%的上涨空间</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-22 13:43</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba reported disappointing earnings on November 18. The stock reacted poorly, sinking 11%. However, Wall Street experts still believe that BABA is undervalued.</p><p><blockquote>中国电子商务巨头阿里巴巴-SW 11月18日公布的财报令人失望。该股反应不佳，下跌11%。然而，华尔街专家仍然认为阿里巴巴被低估了。</blockquote></p><p> Alibabadisappointed on earnings day. On November 18, the Chinese e-commerce behemoth reported a revenue and EPS miss. The stock has been hurting badly throughout 2021 and is nearly 40% lower year-to-date.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴在财报日感到失望。11月18日，这家中国电子商务巨头公布的营收和每股收益均未达到预期。该股在2021年全年遭受重创，今年迄今已下跌近40%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c36e7c677aeece40f848878d4ce5194e\" tg-width=\"685\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Figure 1: Alibaba stock chart price year-to-date.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：阿里巴巴-SW股票图表年初至今的价格。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, Wall Street still sees BABA as a strong buy. After the release of the earnings report, at least three experts have weighed on Alibaba stock. Wall Street Memes takes a closer look at what experts have been saying after Alibaba earnings.</p><p><blockquote>然而，华尔街仍将阿里巴巴视为强力买入。财报发布后，至少有三位专家对阿里巴巴-SW股票进行了评级。Wall Street Memes仔细研究了阿里巴巴-SW财报公布后专家们的言论。</blockquote></p><p> <b>September quarter’s big miss</b></p><p><blockquote><b>九月季度的大失误</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba&nbsp;reported&nbsp;September quarter earnings below Wall Street estimates. Earnings per share missed by $0.19 and revenue missed by $638.6 million. Not only did the company disappoint on fiscal Q2 results, but it also delivered soft guidance as well.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW公布的9月份季度盈利低于华尔街预期。每股收益下降0.19美元，营收下降6.386亿美元。该公司不仅对第二财季业绩感到失望，而且还提供了软指引。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c0700584bcc1964a4ab6d213b455924\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Figure 2: BABA EPS surprise &amp; estimates by quarter.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：按季度划分的阿里巴巴每股收益惊喜和估计。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Weaker-than-expected performance can be blamed on China’s economic&nbsp;slowdown&nbsp;during calendar Q3, in addition to issues like regulations around antitrust and data security. However, Daniel Zhang, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Alibaba Group,said&nbsp;that the longer-term growth goals remain on track.:</p><p><blockquote>除了反垄断和数据安全监管等问题外，业绩弱于预期还可以归咎于中国第三季度经济放缓。不过，阿里巴巴-SW集团董事长兼首席执行官张勇表示，长期增长目标仍在正轨上。：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>This quarter, Alibaba continued to firmly invest into our three strategic pillars of domestic consumption, globalization, and cloud computing to establish solid foundations for our long-term goal of sustainable growth in the future.”</i>  Alibaba’s gloomy view of macroeconomic conditions and the competitive landscape dictated its fiscal year 2022 revenue&nbsp;guidance&nbsp;of $145 billion (RMB930 billion). Alibaba now&nbsp;expects&nbsp;the top line to grow 20% to 23% year-over-year, quite a bit lower than pre-earnings consensus of 28.5%.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>本季度，阿里巴巴-SW继续坚定地投资于我们的国内消费、全球化和云计算三大战略支柱，为我们未来可持续增长的长期目标奠定坚实的基础。”</i>阿里巴巴-SW对宏观经济状况和竞争格局的悲观看法决定了其2022财年收入指引为1450亿美元（9300亿元人民币）。阿里巴巴-SW目前预计营收将同比增长20%至23%，远低于财报前普遍预期的28.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Experts are still bullish</b></p><p><blockquote><b>专家仍看涨</b></blockquote></p><p> Before the September quarter earnings season, sell-side consensus on BABA looked extremely bullish. Based on 22 analyst rating, the stock was considered a strong buy, with only one neutral and one sell recommendation.</p><p><blockquote>在九月季度财报季之前，卖方对阿里巴巴的共识看起来极其乐观。根据22名分析师的评级，该股被认为是强力买入，只有一个中性和一个卖出建议。</blockquote></p><p> After the earnings report, at least three analysts have weighed on BABA stock. Despite all three having lowered their price targets, BABA still has an average projected price of $221.33 among these analysts, which represents 54% upside potential.</p><p><blockquote>财报发布后，至少有三位分析师对阿里巴巴股票表示担忧。尽管这三家公司都下调了目标价，但这些分析师对阿里巴巴的平均预测价仍为221.33美元，这意味着54%的上涨潜力。</blockquote></p><p> CLSA analyst Elinor Leung maintained a buy recommendation on BABA and&nbsp;lowered&nbsp;the company’s price target to $250 from $273, for a still compelling 74% upside potential. The analyst sees September quarter results as disappointing, but also believes that the company’s strategic investments continue to improve.</p><p><blockquote>里昂证券分析师Elinor Leung维持对阿里巴巴的买入建议，并将该公司目标价从273美元下调至250美元，因为该公司仍有74%的上涨潜力。该分析师认为9月份季度业绩令人失望，但也认为该公司的战略投资继续改善。</blockquote></p><p> Citigroup analyst Alicia Yap also&nbsp;lowered&nbsp;the research firm's price target on Alibaba to $234 from $240 for 63% gain potential, but kept a buy recommendation. Mrs. Yap was not surprised to see Alibaba’s miss, especially following a substantial slowdown in NBS retail data for the past two months.</p><p><blockquote>花旗集团分析师Alicia Yap也将该研究公司对阿里巴巴-SW的目标股价从240美元下调至234美元，上涨潜力为63%，但维持买入建议。叶女士对阿里巴巴-SW的表现并不感到惊讶，尤其是在过去两个月国家统计局零售数据大幅放缓之后。</blockquote></p><p> Lastly, Morgan Stanley analyst Gary Yu&nbsp;maintained&nbsp;his buy recommendation on BABA and set the upside opportunity at 25%. Alibaba’s fiscal 2022 revenue growth guidance cut to 20-23% led the analyst to revisit his model and de-risk the price target. The analyst also said:</p><p><blockquote>最后，摩根士丹利分析师Gary Yu维持对阿里巴巴的买入建议，并将上涨机会定为25%。阿里巴巴-SW 2022财年收入增长指引下调至20-23%，导致分析师重新审视他的模型并降低价格目标的风险。该分析师还表示：</blockquote></p><p>   <i>\"We estimate that slightly less than half of the incremental change of RMB50-70 billion comes from lower customer management revenue (CMR) and some from China Retail Others, given lackluster consumption and competition. 3QF22 industry GMV is tracking only at single-digit growth. NBS online retail sales of goods grew 10.3% yoy in October while Tmall Double 11 GMV grew 8.5% yoy. With merchant support, therefore, we expect CMR to grow 4-5% yoy in 2HF22.”</i> </p><p><blockquote><i>“我们估计，鉴于消费和竞争低迷，500-700亿元的增量变化中，略低于一半来自客户管理收入(CMR)下降，部分来自中国零售其他收入。22年第三季度行业GMV仅呈个位数增长。10月份国家统计局网络商品零售额同比增长10.3%，天猫双11 GMV同比增长8.5%。因此，在商家的支持下，我们预计2022年下半年CMR将同比增长4-5%。”</i></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/memestocks/other-memes/baba-stock-despite-earnings-miss-experts-see-54-upside\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/memestocks/other-memes/baba-stock-despite-earnings-miss-experts-see-54-upside","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1192020197","content_text":"Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba reported disappointing earnings on November 18. The stock reacted poorly, sinking 11%. However, Wall Street experts still believe that BABA is undervalued.\nAlibabadisappointed on earnings day. On November 18, the Chinese e-commerce behemoth reported a revenue and EPS miss. The stock has been hurting badly throughout 2021 and is nearly 40% lower year-to-date.\nFigure 1: Alibaba stock chart price year-to-date.\nHowever, Wall Street still sees BABA as a strong buy. After the release of the earnings report, at least three experts have weighed on Alibaba stock. Wall Street Memes takes a closer look at what experts have been saying after Alibaba earnings.\nSeptember quarter’s big miss\nAlibaba reported September quarter earnings below Wall Street estimates. Earnings per share missed by $0.19 and revenue missed by $638.6 million. Not only did the company disappoint on fiscal Q2 results, but it also delivered soft guidance as well.\nFigure 2: BABA EPS surprise & estimates by quarter.\nWeaker-than-expected performance can be blamed on China’s economic slowdown during calendar Q3, in addition to issues like regulations around antitrust and data security. However, Daniel Zhang, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Alibaba Group,said that the longer-term growth goals remain on track.:\n\n “\n This quarter, Alibaba continued to firmly invest into our three strategic pillars of domestic consumption, globalization, and cloud computing to establish solid foundations for our long-term goal of sustainable growth in the future.”\n\nAlibaba’s gloomy view of macroeconomic conditions and the competitive landscape dictated its fiscal year 2022 revenue guidance of $145 billion (RMB930 billion). Alibaba now expects the top line to grow 20% to 23% year-over-year, quite a bit lower than pre-earnings consensus of 28.5%.\nExperts are still bullish\nBefore the September quarter earnings season, sell-side consensus on BABA looked extremely bullish. Based on 22 analyst rating, the stock was considered a strong buy, with only one neutral and one sell recommendation.\nAfter the earnings report, at least three analysts have weighed on BABA stock. Despite all three having lowered their price targets, BABA still has an average projected price of $221.33 among these analysts, which represents 54% upside potential.\nCLSA analyst Elinor Leung maintained a buy recommendation on BABA and lowered the company’s price target to $250 from $273, for a still compelling 74% upside potential. The analyst sees September quarter results as disappointing, but also believes that the company’s strategic investments continue to improve.\nCitigroup analyst Alicia Yap also lowered the research firm's price target on Alibaba to $234 from $240 for 63% gain potential, but kept a buy recommendation. Mrs. Yap was not surprised to see Alibaba’s miss, especially following a substantial slowdown in NBS retail data for the past two months.\nLastly, Morgan Stanley analyst Gary Yu maintained his buy recommendation on BABA and set the upside opportunity at 25%. Alibaba’s fiscal 2022 revenue growth guidance cut to 20-23% led the analyst to revisit his model and de-risk the price target. The analyst also said:\n\n\"We estimate that slightly less than half of the incremental change of RMB50-70 billion comes from lower customer management revenue (CMR) and some from China Retail Others, given lackluster consumption and competition. 3QF22 industry GMV is tracking only at single-digit growth. NBS online retail sales of goods grew 10.3% yoy in October while Tmall Double 11 GMV grew 8.5% yoy. With merchant support, therefore, we expect CMR to grow 4-5% yoy in 2HF22.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9,"09988":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3247,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":859004837,"gmtCreate":1634634222069,"gmtModify":1634634222339,"author":{"id":"3583811401087980","authorId":"3583811401087980","name":"DLIM","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/140bf807c414ea069de5f87b2b1509cd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583811401087980","authorIdStr":"3583811401087980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Alibaba is more than just Ecommerce&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;","listText":"Alibaba is more than just Ecommerce&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;","text":"Alibaba is more than just Ecommerce [强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/859004837","repostId":"1185133403","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1185133403","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1634631070,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1185133403?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-19 16:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba rose nearly 2% in premarket trading as it unveils one of China’s most advanced chips<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW盘前涨近2%，推出国内最先进芯片之一</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185133403","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Alibaba rose nearly 2% in premarket trading, and its stocks’ price in Hong Kong jumped 1.17% on Tuesday.The company unveiled a new server chip that’s based on advanced 5-nanometer technology, marking a milestone in China’s pursuit of semiconductor self-sufficiency.The newest chip is based on micro-architecture provided by the SoftBank Group Corp.-owned Arm Ltd., according to a statement Tuesday. Alibaba, which is holding its annual cloud summit in Hangzhou, said the silicon will be put to use in","content":"<p>Alibaba rose nearly 2% in premarket trading, and its stocks’ price in Hong Kong jumped 1.17% on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW盘前交易中上涨近2%，其在港股价周二上涨1.17%。</blockquote></p><p> &nbsp;<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64d09abc429be4e1672683409ffa01e3\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote> </blockquote></p><p> The company unveiled a new server chip that’s based on advanced 5-nanometer technology, marking a milestone in China’s pursuit of semiconductor self-sufficiency.&nbsp;</p><p><blockquote>该公司推出了一款基于先进5纳米技术的新型服务器芯片，标志着中国追求半导体自给自足的一个里程碑。</blockquote></p><p> The newest chip is based on micro-architecture provided by the SoftBank Group Corp.-owned Arm Ltd., according to a statement Tuesday. Alibaba, which is holding its annual cloud summit in Hangzhou, said the silicon will be put to use in its own data centers in the “near future” and will not be sold commercially, at least for now.</p><p><blockquote>根据周二的一份声明，最新的芯片基于软银集团旗下的Arm Ltd.提供的微架构。正在杭州举行年度云峰会的阿里巴巴-SW表示，这种硅将在“不久的将来”在自己的数据中心投入使用，至少目前不会进行商业销售。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba rose nearly 2% in premarket trading as it unveils one of China’s most advanced chips<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW盘前涨近2%，推出国内最先进芯片之一</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba rose nearly 2% in premarket trading as it unveils one of China’s most advanced chips<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW盘前涨近2%，推出国内最先进芯片之一</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-10-19 16:11</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Alibaba rose nearly 2% in premarket trading, and its stocks’ price in Hong Kong jumped 1.17% on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW盘前交易中上涨近2%，其在港股价周二上涨1.17%。</blockquote></p><p> &nbsp;<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64d09abc429be4e1672683409ffa01e3\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote> </blockquote></p><p> The company unveiled a new server chip that’s based on advanced 5-nanometer technology, marking a milestone in China’s pursuit of semiconductor self-sufficiency.&nbsp;</p><p><blockquote>该公司推出了一款基于先进5纳米技术的新型服务器芯片，标志着中国追求半导体自给自足的一个里程碑。</blockquote></p><p> The newest chip is based on micro-architecture provided by the SoftBank Group Corp.-owned Arm Ltd., according to a statement Tuesday. Alibaba, which is holding its annual cloud summit in Hangzhou, said the silicon will be put to use in its own data centers in the “near future” and will not be sold commercially, at least for now.</p><p><blockquote>根据周二的一份声明，最新的芯片基于软银集团旗下的Arm Ltd.提供的微架构。正在杭州举行年度云峰会的阿里巴巴-SW表示，这种硅将在“不久的将来”在自己的数据中心投入使用，至少目前不会进行商业销售。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185133403","content_text":"Alibaba rose nearly 2% in premarket trading, and its stocks’ price in Hong Kong jumped 1.17% on Tuesday.\n \nThe company unveiled a new server chip that’s based on advanced 5-nanometer technology, marking a milestone in China’s pursuit of semiconductor self-sufficiency. \nThe newest chip is based on micro-architecture provided by the SoftBank Group Corp.-owned Arm Ltd., according to a statement Tuesday. Alibaba, which is holding its annual cloud summit in Hangzhou, said the silicon will be put to use in its own data centers in the “near future” and will not be sold commercially, at least for now.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9,"09988":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2846,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":865468190,"gmtCreate":1633011517075,"gmtModify":1633011517343,"author":{"id":"3583811401087980","authorId":"3583811401087980","name":"DLIM","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/140bf807c414ea069de5f87b2b1509cd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583811401087980","authorIdStr":"3583811401087980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great summary","listText":"Great summary","text":"Great summary","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/865468190","repostId":"1104172212","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2723,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":817689052,"gmtCreate":1630940620176,"gmtModify":1632905031135,"author":{"id":"3583811401087980","authorId":"3583811401087980","name":"DLIM","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/140bf807c414ea069de5f87b2b1509cd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583811401087980","authorIdStr":"3583811401087980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hopefully the management could explore new business opportunities thru aquisition or diversificatio","listText":"Hopefully the management could explore new business opportunities thru aquisition or diversificatio","text":"Hopefully the management could explore new business opportunities thru aquisition or diversificatio","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/817689052","repostId":"2165384258","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3283,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":815140059,"gmtCreate":1630659590471,"gmtModify":1632468164081,"author":{"id":"3583811401087980","authorId":"3583811401087980","name":"DLIM","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/140bf807c414ea069de5f87b2b1509cd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583811401087980","authorIdStr":"3583811401087980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Always remember to do your portfolio management","listText":"Always remember to do your portfolio management","text":"Always remember to do your portfolio management","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/815140059","repostId":"1115112299","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115112299","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630641559,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1115112299?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-03 11:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What Will Happen When Trillions In Stimulus Run Out In 2022?<blockquote>2022年数万亿刺激用完会发生什么？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115112299","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe US economy and stock market have benefitted from an unprecedented amount of stimulus in","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The US economy and stock market have benefitted from an unprecedented amount of stimulus in 2021.</li>  <li>With expanded unemployment set to end, student loan &amp; mortgage forbearance to end, and a possible corporate tax rate hike on the horizon, it's possible 2022 earnings estimates for stocks are simply too high.</li>  <li>In light of this, the broad stock market faces an unattractive risk-reward proposition.</li>  <li>I break down the possibilities and game plan with expert value/dividend investor Sam Kovacs.</li> </ul> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2021年，美国经济和股市受益于前所未有的刺激措施。</li><li>随着失业扩大即将结束，学生贷款和抵押贷款忍耐即将结束，以及企业税率可能上调，2022年股市盈利预期可能太高了。</li><li>有鉴于此，整个股市面临着一个没有吸引力的风险回报命题。</li><li>我与专家价值/股息投资者萨姆·科瓦奇一起分析了可能性和游戏计划。</li></ul><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>The United States government has turned to an unprecedented amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus to help the economy through the COVID-19 pandemic. Notable examples include multiple rounds of stimulus checks, the student loan pause, mortgage forbearance/eviction moratorium, PPP, and enhanced unemployment benefits. So far, this effort seems to have been successful, although critics point out that it has resulted in significant increases in inflation. However, the political and economic reality is that the US can't run $3 trillion deficits forever, at least without everyone implicitly paying for it via higher consumer prices compared to their earnings.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>美国政府已经转向前所未有的财政和货币刺激措施，以帮助经济度过新冠肺炎疫情。值得注意的例子包括多轮刺激检查、学生贷款暂停、抵押贷款延期/驱逐暂停、PPP和提高失业福利。到目前为止，这一努力似乎是成功的，尽管批评者指出，这导致了通货膨胀的显著上升。然而，政治和经济现实是，美国不可能永远保持3万亿美元的赤字，至少在每个人都没有通过高于其收入的消费者价格来隐性支付赤字的情况下。</blockquote></p><p> The weight of theevidence suggeststhat prices are rising faster than wages. In turn, the government has stepped in to fill this gap with stimulus payments, but the trillion-dollar question is what happens when the economy has to run on its own productivity–rather than on temporary transfer payments. For 2021, thanks to pent-up demand and stimulus, S&amp;P 500 components are expected to smash the record for the highest amount ever earned in a year (somewhere between $200 and $205 per share for 2021, vs. the previous record of $163 in 2019). Wall Street analysts additionally expect the S&amp;P 500 to earn~$215 per share in 2022, which would be yet another record. When you pull numbers forproductivity and economic output, the picture isn't as great, which helps explain why there are so many shortages of goods and services right now. If you feel that the change in nominal economic output is more indicative of what corporations can earn over the medium term (taking away the impact of consumers spending temporary transfer payments), you get an earnings number for the S&amp;P 500 closer to $180, which is about 15 percent lower than Wall Street is currently expecting.</p><p><blockquote>大量证据表明，物价上涨速度快于工资上涨速度。反过来，政府已经介入，通过刺激支付来填补这一缺口，但万亿美元的问题是，当经济不得不依靠自身生产力而不是临时转移支付来运行时会发生什么。2021年，由于被压抑的需求和刺激措施，标普500组件预计将打破一年内最高收入记录（2021年每股收入在200美元至205美元之间，而2019年的纪录为163美元）。此外，华尔街分析师预计标普500 2022年每股收益约为215美元，这将再创历史新高。当你计算生产率和经济产出的数字时，情况就不那么好了，这有助于解释为什么现在商品和服务如此短缺。如果你认为名义经济产出的变化更能反映企业在中期内的收入（剔除消费者支出临时转移支付的影响），你会得到标普500的收入数字接近180美元，这比华尔街目前的预期低约15%。</blockquote></p><p> Putting further pressure on earnings is the potential corporate tax hike from 21 percent to 25 percent, which will decrease S&amp;P 500 earnings by 5 percent, all else being equal. Political betting markets show that this has a roughly50/50 chance of becoming lawat the moment. With many investors making easy money piling into low-conviction, high momentum names, the consequences of unwinding stimulus could be a shock to their portfolio balances. Helping me make sense of the stimulus unwind is fellow<i>Seeking Alpha</i>authorSam Kovacs.Although living halfway across the world from me here in suburban Texas, Sam and I think eerily alike about the markets, gravitating to high-quality stocks with solid earnings and dividends.</p><p><blockquote>给盈利带来进一步压力的是潜在的公司税从21%提高到25%，在其他条件相同的情况下，这将使标普500的盈利减少5%。政治博彩市场显示，这有大约50/50的机会成为lawat时刻。随着许多轻松赚钱的投资者涌入低信心、高势头的股票，取消刺激措施的后果可能会对他们的投资组合平衡造成冲击。帮助我理解刺激放松是同伴<i>寻求阿尔法</i>作者萨姆·科瓦奇。尽管住在德克萨斯州郊区，与我相隔半个地球，但我和萨姆对市场的看法却出奇地相似，都被具有稳定收益和股息的优质股票所吸引。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>Within the first couple of months of the Fed’s reaction to the pandemic, I was concerned that they would be placing themselves between a rock and a hard place. I would not have wanted to be in Powell’s shoes, but then again there aren’t many government jobs I’d consider taking. Striking a balance between pulling stimulus too early and risking runaway inflation is no easy task. The government has looked to prior crashes and decided that risking inflation was the way to go.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆-</i>在美联储对疫情做出反应的头几个月里，我担心他们会进退两难。我不想站在鲍威尔的立场上，但话说回来，我会考虑接受的政府工作并不多。在过早取消刺激措施和通胀失控风险之间取得平衡绝非易事。政府回顾了之前的崩盘，并决定冒通胀风险是正确的选择。</blockquote></p><p> Keep telling the people that it is “transitory” and surely it will be. But anyone who has taken Econ 101 knows that inflation feeds on itself. At first, companies are reactionary, but then they become proactive in pricing measures. Here are a few snippets.</p><p><blockquote>不断告诉人们这是“暂时的”，而且肯定会是。但是任何学过经济学101的人都知道，通货膨胀是自我驱动的。起初，公司是反动的，但后来它们在定价措施上变得积极主动。这里有几个片段。</blockquote></p><p> From Hormel's (HRL) latestcall:</p><p><blockquote>来自荷美尔(HRL)的最新电话：</blockquote></p><p> <i>We have taken numerous pricing actions across the portfolio to protect profitability. The actions will take place early in the third quarter with additional pricing actions likely.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>我们在整个投资组合中采取了大量定价行动来保护盈利能力。这些行动将在第三季度初进行，并可能采取额外的定价行动。</i></blockquote></p><p> From Conagra's (CAG) latestcall:</p><p><blockquote>来自康尼格拉(CAG)的最新电话：</blockquote></p><p> <i>And the short answer is yes. In fact, we began implementing pricing actions on some of our products in the quarter related to the initial inflation we experienced. The very early read on the data from those actions is that our elasticities look good so far. And we have more pricing coming.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>简短的回答是肯定的。事实上，我们在本季度开始对一些产品实施与我们经历的最初通货膨胀相关的定价行动。对这些行动数据的早期解读是，到目前为止，我们的弹性看起来不错。我们还将推出更多定价。</i></blockquote></p><p> There will be no shortage of inflation in food in upcoming quarters. Oil price still has a couple of quarters of weak comparables which continue to contribute to higher headline inflation rates.</p><p><blockquote>未来几个季度不会出现食品通胀。油价仍有几个季度的疲软可比数据，这继续导致整体通胀率上升。</blockquote></p><p> Food &amp; transportation, along with housing are the major costs of US households. For1/6thof adults, you can throw in student loans as well. US consumers have been able to absorb the inflation on the back of various stimulus efforts.</p><p><blockquote>食品、交通以及住房是美国家庭的主要开支。对于1/6的成年人，你也可以提供学生贷款。在各种刺激措施的支持下，美国消费者已经能够吸收通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But the stimulus can’t last forever. Part of it is being extended as Delta is slowing (not killing) the recovery. What happens when the different forms of stimulus fade? That’s what we’re going to look at in the rest of the article.</p><p><blockquote>但刺激不可能永远持续下去。由于达美航空正在减缓（而不是扼杀）复苏，其中一部分正在延长。当不同形式的刺激消退时会发生什么？这就是我们将在本文的其余部分中讨论的内容。</blockquote></p><p> The Eviction/Foreclosure Moratorium</p><p><blockquote>暂停驱逐/取消抵押品赎回权</blockquote></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>Foreclosures have started again, and the Supreme Court recentlystruck downthe eviction moratorium imposed by the CDC. By my last count, there are about1.5 million householdswho are in forbearance programs at the moment (i.e. not paying their mortgages), against somewhere in the ballpark of 50 million mortgages in the US. Foreclosure is a process, not an event, and the most common outcome is that people get behind on their payments, try to work with the bank for 6-12 months, and then eventually sell, collect their equity, and move somewhere cheaper. The problem in 2008 was that borrowers had negative equity on their mortgages, so it short-circuited this process. This isn't the case now–I don't see a systematic risk to the economy from foreclosures. Around 6-7 million houses in the US are bought and sold in a typical year, meaning in a vacuum, most people who are behind could sell over a 6-12 month period, and it would be a win-win for those struggling with the shortage of houses to buy and those who can't make payments on the ones they own. The Fed taper might complicate this. If mortgage rates go back up to the ~4 percent they've averaged over the last 10 years at the same time people are unloading houses they've been in forbearance on, prices are going to come down more.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>止赎又开始了，最高法院最近推翻了疾病预防控制中心实施的驱逐禁令。根据我的最新统计，目前约有150万家庭处于延期计划中（即不支付抵押贷款），而美国的抵押贷款数量约为5000万。止赎是一个过程，而不是一个事件，最常见的结果是人们拖欠付款，试图与银行合作6-12个月，然后最终出售，收集他们的股权，并搬到更便宜的地方。2008年的问题是借款人的抵押贷款为负资产，因此它缩短了这一过程。现在的情况并非如此——我不认为取消抵押品赎回权会给经济带来系统性风险。在美国，一年大约有600-700万套房屋被买卖，这意味着在真空中，大多数落后的人可以在6-12个月的时间内出售，这对于那些为购买房屋短缺而苦苦挣扎的人和那些无法支付所拥有房屋的人来说是双赢的。美联储缩减规模可能会使情况变得复杂。如果抵押贷款利率回到过去10年的平均4%左右，同时人们正在抛售他们一直忍住的房子，价格将会进一步下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Evictions are messier–there are millions of people not paying rent and living off the extra money. When they have to start paying rent again somewhere else, their household budgets are going to dramatically shrink. Roughly 2-3 percent of American households are significantly behind on rent, so I would expect a lot of both formal and informal (cash for keys) evictions. This has to negatively affect consumer spending, and earnings estimates that ignore the unwind of stimulus are not properly accounting for it.</p><p><blockquote>驱逐更加混乱——有数百万人不付房租，靠额外的钱生活。当他们不得不在其他地方重新开始支付房租时，他们的家庭预算将会大幅缩水。大约2-3%的美国家庭严重拖欠租金，所以我预计会有很多正式和非正式的（现金换钥匙）驱逐。这必然会对消费者支出产生负面影响，而忽视刺激措施放松的盈利预测也没有正确考虑到这一点。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>The risk here is not so much on the real estate market, as Logan correctly summarized, but rather the knock-on effects on consumption.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆-</i>正如洛根正确总结的那样，这里的风险与其说是房地产市场，不如说是对消费的连锁反应。</blockquote></p><p> The end of the federal eviction moratorium is a boon for apartment REITs which can resume collecting rent. However, that doesn’t mean investors should pile into residential REITs. have gone from deeply undervalued back to historically overvalued, as the below MAD Chart for Essex Property (ESS) shows. We previously suggested investors sell ESS.</p><p><blockquote>联邦驱逐禁令的结束对可以恢复收取租金的公寓房地产投资信托基金来说是一个福音。然而，这并不意味着投资者应该涌入住宅房地产投资信托基金。正如下面埃塞克斯地产(ESS)的MAD图表所示，已经从严重低估回到历史高估。我们之前建议投资者出售ESS。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc5c631a8b25f6a52735e699fbc69b29\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"293\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source:Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> Looking at the other residential REITs on the block, the same picture emerges. AvalonBay Communities (AVB) also is historically overvalued.</p><p><blockquote>看看该街区的其他住宅房地产投资信托基金，也会出现同样的情况。AvalonBay Communities(AVB)历来也被高估。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e17980a72bfba653b02553382a920419\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"315\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> None seem more overvalued relative to their historical normal range of prices than Camden Property Trust (CPT) which could easily come down by 1/3rdon a change in sentiment.</p><p><blockquote>相对于其历史正常价格范围，似乎没有比卡姆登房地产信托(CPT)更高估的了，如果情绪发生变化，卡姆登房地产信托(CPT)很容易下跌1/3。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/136a7707c3add17401e4dd4047278e14\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"303\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> I believe that this trade has passed. We bought ESS about a year ago, and have been selling it throughout the past few months.</p><p><blockquote>我相信这笔交易已经过去了。我们大约一年前购买了ESS，并在过去几个月里一直在出售它。</blockquote></p><p> Taking profits now in these industries makes sense: “buy the rumor/sell the news”.</p><p><blockquote>现在在这些行业获利了结是有道理的：“买入谣言/卖出消息”。</blockquote></p><p> If we’re looking ahead, we’re seeing one lever which will pressure consumption for a certain part of the population.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们展望未来，我们会看到一个杠杆将给某一部分人口的消费带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Student Loan Forbearance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>学生贷款延期</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>The Biden Administration extended the student loan pause until January 31, 2022. 1 in 6 adults in the US has student loans, with an average balance of ~$40,000. Most borrowers are under 30, a group that spends a higher percentage of their income than, say a 50-year old saving for retirement. Hit 1 in 6 American adults with an average$400 per month payment, paid with mostly post-tax dollars, and that's like stimulus in reverse. Anecdotally, almost no one I know who has student loans is currently paying them. The extra money they're getting from not paying loans is generally either being spent on consumption, invested in cryptocurrency, or in meme stocks like GameStop (GME). This is a decent threat to consumer spending, and there isn't an easy way out. The left wing of the Democratic Party in the US wants to cancel most or all student loans, but the main problem with this is that much of the debt is held by middle and upper-middle-class professionals, which would create a moral hazard as well as redistribute wealth from people lower on the socioeconomic ladder (for example, people who work in trades and pay their income taxes) to those of higher social class (for example, indebted white-collar college graduates). We're talking$1.7+ trillion in US student loansthat are generally not being serviced by those who owe it for this 21 month period. When those kick in again, consumer spending is not going to be higher than it is now. 2022 earnings estimates are mostly blind to this fact.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>拜登政府将学生贷款暂停期限延长至2022年1月31日。美国六分之一的成年人拥有学生贷款，平均余额约为4万美元。大多数借款人年龄在30岁以下，这个群体的支出占其收入的比例高于50岁的退休储蓄。六分之一的美国成年人平均每月支付400美元，大部分是税后美元，这就像是反向刺激。有趣的是，我认识的有学生贷款的人目前几乎没有人在偿还贷款。他们因不偿还贷款而获得的额外资金通常要么用于消费、投资加密货币，要么投资于游戏驿站(GME)等模因股票。这对消费者支出构成了相当大的威胁，而且没有简单的解决办法。美国民主党左翼希望取消大部分或全部学生贷款，但这样做的主要问题是，大部分债务由中产阶级和中上阶层的专业人士持有，这将造成道德风险，并将财富从社会经济阶梯较低的人（例如，从事贸易并缴纳所得税的人）重新分配到较高的社会阶层（例如，负债累累的白领大学毕业生）。我们谈论的是1.7多万亿美元的美国学生贷款，这些贷款在这21个月内通常没有被那些欠债的人偿还。当这些因素再次发挥作用时，消费者支出不会比现在高。2022年的盈利预测大多对这一事实视而不见。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>When Logan and I initially discussed this article, this seemed to be the easiest form of stimulus for the government to keep giving. Since most of the loans are federal, a pause on the payments doesn’t explicitly hurt anyone enough to complain. And since the handouts are not direct, critics aren’t as vocal as they are with stimulus checks. The money which has been put into various investments, be it stock or crypto, will come out when they have to start servicing debt again. Whether this has enough of an impact to move markets is questionable, but the retail meme stocks could finally have their day of reckoning as a large portion of the population has to resume payments. The aftermath of removing the pause on debt servicing will be harsh for an important part of the population. At least you’ll still be able to watch a movie at AMC Theater (AMC).</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆-</i>当洛根和我最初讨论这篇文章时，这似乎是政府继续给予的最容易的刺激形式。由于大多数贷款都是联邦贷款，暂停付款不会对任何人造成足够的伤害来抱怨。由于施舍不是直接的，批评者不像对刺激支票那样直言不讳。投入各种投资的资金，无论是股票还是加密货币，将在他们不得不再次开始偿还债务时流出。这是否会产生足够的影响来推动市场值得怀疑，但随着很大一部分人必须恢复支付，零售模因股票最终可能会迎来清算日。取消暂停偿债的后果对很大一部分人口来说将是严酷的。至少您仍然可以在AMC剧院(AMC)观看电影。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Enhanced Unemployment &amp; Stimulus Checks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>加强失业和刺激检查</b></blockquote></p><p> Logan- Enhanced unemployment runs out on September 6, and there are 11 million people who won't be getting it after that week. This is $3.3 billion per week that the Federal government is dripping out to unemployed persons, which in turn is a lot less than it was 12 months ago. When it's gone, it's yet another piece of the puzzle that will rein in consumer spending. Stimulus checks were another source of income for many Americans over the last 18 months. A family of 4 making the median income would have seen a stimulus check in March of $5,600, in addition to the prior payments under the Trump Administration. These aren't going to be going out anymore, and for middle-income Americans, this means that they won't be able to spend as much money as they have before. The expanded child tax credit may make up for this and is probably a more efficient means of getting money out, but it expires also in its current form in December.</p><p><blockquote>洛根——增强失业将于9月6日到期，在那一周之后，有1100万人将无法领取失业救济金。联邦政府每周向失业者发放33亿美元，这比12个月前要少得多。当它消失时，它将成为抑制消费者支出的又一块拼图。在过去的18个月里，刺激支票是许多美国人的另一个收入来源。除了特朗普政府之前的付款外，一个收入中位数的4口之家在3月份还会看到5600美元的刺激支票。这些不会再出去了，对于中等收入的美国人来说，这意味着他们将无法像以前那样花那么多钱。扩大的儿童税收抵免可能会弥补这一点，并且可能是一种更有效的提款方式，但目前的形式也将于12月到期。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>Enhanced Unemployment is running out in a few days, we’re likely to see many of the 8 million Americans who are looking for a job finally find one amongthe 10 million job openings. As of the time of writing, job data is to be posted in the next few hours. Strong job numbers could kick off a Fed taper sooner than expected.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆-</i>失业率的上升将在几天内消失，我们可能会看到800万正在找工作的美国人中的许多人最终在1000万个职位空缺中找到一个。截至撰写本文时，工作数据将在未来几个小时内发布。强劲的就业数据可能会比预期更早启动美联储缩减规模。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion: What Is Yet to Come?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论：接下来会发生什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>High profile earnings misses from the likes of Amazon (AMZN), Zoom Video (ZM), and Peloton (PTON) suggest that at least on a micro level, analysts assumed that good times would last forever for companies that benefitted from temporary changes resulting from the pandemic. Whether this is true on a macro level is a strong possibility, and depending on how the rest of earnings results come in for the rest of the year, it may end up becoming a reality. While it isn't set in stone that the market should necessarily go down significantly in price because of this, it's hard to deny that the risk-reward tradeoff for the market has deteriorated over the past 6-12 months. Now is a good time to dial back risk, if at all possible. A good defense, in both of our views, is to invest in high-quality companies rather than popular high-momentum stocks with middling fundamentals, and to take a long-term perspective.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>亚马逊(AMZN)、Zoom Video(ZM)和Peloton(PTON)等公司的盈利大幅下滑表明，至少在微观层面上，分析师认为，对于那些受益于暂时变化的公司来说，美好时光将永远持续下去。大流行。从宏观层面来看，这是否属实的可能性很大，而且取决于今年剩余时间的盈利结果，它最终可能会成为现实。虽然市场价格并不一定会因此大幅下跌，但很难否认市场的风险回报权衡在过去6-12个月中已经恶化。如果可能的话，现在是降低风险的好时机。在我们看来，一个好的防御是投资于优质公司，而不是基本面中等的热门高动能股票，并从长远角度来看。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>The inflation train has left the station. Powell believes it is transitory, I believe that it might be partially transitory, but the abundance of fiscal stimulus has kicked up a cycle of inflation which will be above 2% for quite some time. The Covid delta variant has softened some economic indicators like eating out in restaurants or travel, but as the country’s case count is already peaking, the economy is set to continue heating up.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆-</i>充气列车已经离开车站了。鲍威尔认为这是暂时的，我认为这可能是部分暂时的，但大量的财政刺激已经启动了通胀周期，通胀将在相当长的一段时间内保持在2%以上。新冠疫情德尔塔变异毒株削弱了外出就餐或旅行等一些经济指标，但随着该国病例数已经达到峰值，经济将继续升温。</blockquote></p><p> This will lead to a taper. Higher rates, or even the expectation of higher rates, will lead to a change in discount rates, which is a fancy way to say future profits are worthless.</p><p><blockquote>这将导致锥度。更高的利率，甚至更高利率的预期，都会导致贴现率的变化，这是一种说未来利润一文不值的奇特方式。</blockquote></p><p> Investors want to take a hard look at their portfolios and ask whether they have positions which are overvalued beyond reason?</p><p><blockquote>投资者希望仔细审视他们的投资组合，并询问他们是否拥有被过度高估的头寸？</blockquote></p><p> No need to look at obscure parts of the market, this is playing out in the S&amp;P 500 (SPY).</p><p><blockquote>无需关注市场中不起眼的部分，这正在标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）上演。</blockquote></p><p> For instance, I cannot fathom how a stock like Intuit (INTU) currently trades at 16x sales? Even on its lofty usual measure of 8-9x sales, this is unusually high. Compare it to the stock's historical dividend, and the reading is off the wall.</p><p><blockquote>例如，我无法理解像Intuit(INTU)这样的股票目前的交易价格是销售额的16倍？即使按照通常8-9倍的销售额来衡量，这也是异常高的。将其与该股票的历史股息进行比较，读数是惊人的。</blockquote></p><p> Investors want to focus on companies with strong earnings power, large-scale operations, which are trading at relatively cheap valuations.</p><p><blockquote>投资者希望关注盈利能力强、经营规模大、估值相对便宜的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Among those that come to mind in the top 100 stocks are Amgen (AMGN) which currently yields over 3%.</p><p><blockquote>前100名股票中我想到的是安进(AMGN)，该公司目前的收益率超过3%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd53f68bc9f02f82e05458098625b0a7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"297\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> Philip Morris International (PM), Broadcom (AVGO), and Morgan Stanley (MS.PK) are also undervalued relative to their historical valuations.</p><p><blockquote>菲利普莫里斯国际（PM）、博通（AVGO）和摩根士丹利（MS.PK）相对于其历史估值也被低估。</blockquote></p><p> In such an environment, focus on quality is a must. Focus on value is a close second. We’re looking to buy the highest quality assets with growth prospects at a decent price. We’re very cautious that stimulus unwinding will hit consumption which will hit earning results. Big misses from overvalued names spells trouble. The responsible thing to do is to scale out of stocks when they become overvalued.</p><p><blockquote>在这样的环境下，注重质量是必须的。关注价值紧随其后。我们希望以合理的价格购买具有增长前景的最优质资产。我们非常谨慎地认为，刺激措施的取消将打击消费，从而影响盈利结果。估值过高的名字的重大失误会带来麻烦。负责任的做法是在股票估值过高时退出。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Will Happen When Trillions In Stimulus Run Out In 2022?<blockquote>2022年数万亿刺激用完会发生什么？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Will Happen When Trillions In Stimulus Run Out In 2022?<blockquote>2022年数万亿刺激用完会发生什么？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-03 11:59</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The US economy and stock market have benefitted from an unprecedented amount of stimulus in 2021.</li>  <li>With expanded unemployment set to end, student loan &amp; mortgage forbearance to end, and a possible corporate tax rate hike on the horizon, it's possible 2022 earnings estimates for stocks are simply too high.</li>  <li>In light of this, the broad stock market faces an unattractive risk-reward proposition.</li>  <li>I break down the possibilities and game plan with expert value/dividend investor Sam Kovacs.</li> </ul> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2021年，美国经济和股市受益于前所未有的刺激措施。</li><li>随着失业扩大即将结束，学生贷款和抵押贷款忍耐即将结束，以及企业税率可能上调，2022年股市盈利预期可能太高了。</li><li>有鉴于此，整个股市面临着一个没有吸引力的风险回报命题。</li><li>我与专家价值/股息投资者萨姆·科瓦奇一起分析了可能性和游戏计划。</li></ul><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>The United States government has turned to an unprecedented amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus to help the economy through the COVID-19 pandemic. Notable examples include multiple rounds of stimulus checks, the student loan pause, mortgage forbearance/eviction moratorium, PPP, and enhanced unemployment benefits. So far, this effort seems to have been successful, although critics point out that it has resulted in significant increases in inflation. However, the political and economic reality is that the US can't run $3 trillion deficits forever, at least without everyone implicitly paying for it via higher consumer prices compared to their earnings.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>美国政府已经转向前所未有的财政和货币刺激措施，以帮助经济度过新冠肺炎疫情。值得注意的例子包括多轮刺激检查、学生贷款暂停、抵押贷款延期/驱逐暂停、PPP和提高失业福利。到目前为止，这一努力似乎是成功的，尽管批评者指出，这导致了通货膨胀的显著上升。然而，政治和经济现实是，美国不可能永远保持3万亿美元的赤字，至少在每个人都没有通过高于其收入的消费者价格来隐性支付赤字的情况下。</blockquote></p><p> The weight of theevidence suggeststhat prices are rising faster than wages. In turn, the government has stepped in to fill this gap with stimulus payments, but the trillion-dollar question is what happens when the economy has to run on its own productivity–rather than on temporary transfer payments. For 2021, thanks to pent-up demand and stimulus, S&amp;P 500 components are expected to smash the record for the highest amount ever earned in a year (somewhere between $200 and $205 per share for 2021, vs. the previous record of $163 in 2019). Wall Street analysts additionally expect the S&amp;P 500 to earn~$215 per share in 2022, which would be yet another record. When you pull numbers forproductivity and economic output, the picture isn't as great, which helps explain why there are so many shortages of goods and services right now. If you feel that the change in nominal economic output is more indicative of what corporations can earn over the medium term (taking away the impact of consumers spending temporary transfer payments), you get an earnings number for the S&amp;P 500 closer to $180, which is about 15 percent lower than Wall Street is currently expecting.</p><p><blockquote>大量证据表明，物价上涨速度快于工资上涨速度。反过来，政府已经介入，通过刺激支付来填补这一缺口，但万亿美元的问题是，当经济不得不依靠自身生产力而不是临时转移支付来运行时会发生什么。2021年，由于被压抑的需求和刺激措施，标普500组件预计将打破一年内最高收入记录（2021年每股收入在200美元至205美元之间，而2019年的纪录为163美元）。此外，华尔街分析师预计标普500 2022年每股收益约为215美元，这将再创历史新高。当你计算生产率和经济产出的数字时，情况就不那么好了，这有助于解释为什么现在商品和服务如此短缺。如果你认为名义经济产出的变化更能反映企业在中期内的收入（剔除消费者支出临时转移支付的影响），你会得到标普500的收入数字接近180美元，这比华尔街目前的预期低约15%。</blockquote></p><p> Putting further pressure on earnings is the potential corporate tax hike from 21 percent to 25 percent, which will decrease S&amp;P 500 earnings by 5 percent, all else being equal. Political betting markets show that this has a roughly50/50 chance of becoming lawat the moment. With many investors making easy money piling into low-conviction, high momentum names, the consequences of unwinding stimulus could be a shock to their portfolio balances. Helping me make sense of the stimulus unwind is fellow<i>Seeking Alpha</i>authorSam Kovacs.Although living halfway across the world from me here in suburban Texas, Sam and I think eerily alike about the markets, gravitating to high-quality stocks with solid earnings and dividends.</p><p><blockquote>给盈利带来进一步压力的是潜在的公司税从21%提高到25%，在其他条件相同的情况下，这将使标普500的盈利减少5%。政治博彩市场显示，这有大约50/50的机会成为lawat时刻。随着许多轻松赚钱的投资者涌入低信心、高势头的股票，取消刺激措施的后果可能会对他们的投资组合平衡造成冲击。帮助我理解刺激放松是同伴<i>寻求阿尔法</i>作者萨姆·科瓦奇。尽管住在德克萨斯州郊区，与我相隔半个地球，但我和萨姆对市场的看法却出奇地相似，都被具有稳定收益和股息的优质股票所吸引。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>Within the first couple of months of the Fed’s reaction to the pandemic, I was concerned that they would be placing themselves between a rock and a hard place. I would not have wanted to be in Powell’s shoes, but then again there aren’t many government jobs I’d consider taking. Striking a balance between pulling stimulus too early and risking runaway inflation is no easy task. The government has looked to prior crashes and decided that risking inflation was the way to go.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆-</i>在美联储对疫情做出反应的头几个月里，我担心他们会进退两难。我不想站在鲍威尔的立场上，但话说回来，我会考虑接受的政府工作并不多。在过早取消刺激措施和通胀失控风险之间取得平衡绝非易事。政府回顾了之前的崩盘，并决定冒通胀风险是正确的选择。</blockquote></p><p> Keep telling the people that it is “transitory” and surely it will be. But anyone who has taken Econ 101 knows that inflation feeds on itself. At first, companies are reactionary, but then they become proactive in pricing measures. Here are a few snippets.</p><p><blockquote>不断告诉人们这是“暂时的”，而且肯定会是。但是任何学过经济学101的人都知道，通货膨胀是自我驱动的。起初，公司是反动的，但后来它们在定价措施上变得积极主动。这里有几个片段。</blockquote></p><p> From Hormel's (HRL) latestcall:</p><p><blockquote>来自荷美尔(HRL)的最新电话：</blockquote></p><p> <i>We have taken numerous pricing actions across the portfolio to protect profitability. The actions will take place early in the third quarter with additional pricing actions likely.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>我们在整个投资组合中采取了大量定价行动来保护盈利能力。这些行动将在第三季度初进行，并可能采取额外的定价行动。</i></blockquote></p><p> From Conagra's (CAG) latestcall:</p><p><blockquote>来自康尼格拉(CAG)的最新电话：</blockquote></p><p> <i>And the short answer is yes. In fact, we began implementing pricing actions on some of our products in the quarter related to the initial inflation we experienced. The very early read on the data from those actions is that our elasticities look good so far. And we have more pricing coming.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>简短的回答是肯定的。事实上，我们在本季度开始对一些产品实施与我们经历的最初通货膨胀相关的定价行动。对这些行动数据的早期解读是，到目前为止，我们的弹性看起来不错。我们还将推出更多定价。</i></blockquote></p><p> There will be no shortage of inflation in food in upcoming quarters. Oil price still has a couple of quarters of weak comparables which continue to contribute to higher headline inflation rates.</p><p><blockquote>未来几个季度不会出现食品通胀。油价仍有几个季度的疲软可比数据，这继续导致整体通胀率上升。</blockquote></p><p> Food &amp; transportation, along with housing are the major costs of US households. For1/6thof adults, you can throw in student loans as well. US consumers have been able to absorb the inflation on the back of various stimulus efforts.</p><p><blockquote>食品、交通以及住房是美国家庭的主要开支。对于1/6的成年人，你也可以提供学生贷款。在各种刺激措施的支持下，美国消费者已经能够吸收通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But the stimulus can’t last forever. Part of it is being extended as Delta is slowing (not killing) the recovery. What happens when the different forms of stimulus fade? That’s what we’re going to look at in the rest of the article.</p><p><blockquote>但刺激不可能永远持续下去。由于达美航空正在减缓（而不是扼杀）复苏，其中一部分正在延长。当不同形式的刺激消退时会发生什么？这就是我们将在本文的其余部分中讨论的内容。</blockquote></p><p> The Eviction/Foreclosure Moratorium</p><p><blockquote>暂停驱逐/取消抵押品赎回权</blockquote></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>Foreclosures have started again, and the Supreme Court recentlystruck downthe eviction moratorium imposed by the CDC. By my last count, there are about1.5 million householdswho are in forbearance programs at the moment (i.e. not paying their mortgages), against somewhere in the ballpark of 50 million mortgages in the US. Foreclosure is a process, not an event, and the most common outcome is that people get behind on their payments, try to work with the bank for 6-12 months, and then eventually sell, collect their equity, and move somewhere cheaper. The problem in 2008 was that borrowers had negative equity on their mortgages, so it short-circuited this process. This isn't the case now–I don't see a systematic risk to the economy from foreclosures. Around 6-7 million houses in the US are bought and sold in a typical year, meaning in a vacuum, most people who are behind could sell over a 6-12 month period, and it would be a win-win for those struggling with the shortage of houses to buy and those who can't make payments on the ones they own. The Fed taper might complicate this. If mortgage rates go back up to the ~4 percent they've averaged over the last 10 years at the same time people are unloading houses they've been in forbearance on, prices are going to come down more.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>止赎又开始了，最高法院最近推翻了疾病预防控制中心实施的驱逐禁令。根据我的最新统计，目前约有150万家庭处于延期计划中（即不支付抵押贷款），而美国的抵押贷款数量约为5000万。止赎是一个过程，而不是一个事件，最常见的结果是人们拖欠付款，试图与银行合作6-12个月，然后最终出售，收集他们的股权，并搬到更便宜的地方。2008年的问题是借款人的抵押贷款为负资产，因此它缩短了这一过程。现在的情况并非如此——我不认为取消抵押品赎回权会给经济带来系统性风险。在美国，一年大约有600-700万套房屋被买卖，这意味着在真空中，大多数落后的人可以在6-12个月的时间内出售，这对于那些为购买房屋短缺而苦苦挣扎的人和那些无法支付所拥有房屋的人来说是双赢的。美联储缩减规模可能会使情况变得复杂。如果抵押贷款利率回到过去10年的平均4%左右，同时人们正在抛售他们一直忍住的房子，价格将会进一步下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Evictions are messier–there are millions of people not paying rent and living off the extra money. When they have to start paying rent again somewhere else, their household budgets are going to dramatically shrink. Roughly 2-3 percent of American households are significantly behind on rent, so I would expect a lot of both formal and informal (cash for keys) evictions. This has to negatively affect consumer spending, and earnings estimates that ignore the unwind of stimulus are not properly accounting for it.</p><p><blockquote>驱逐更加混乱——有数百万人不付房租，靠额外的钱生活。当他们不得不在其他地方重新开始支付房租时，他们的家庭预算将会大幅缩水。大约2-3%的美国家庭严重拖欠租金，所以我预计会有很多正式和非正式的（现金换钥匙）驱逐。这必然会对消费者支出产生负面影响，而忽视刺激措施放松的盈利预测也没有正确考虑到这一点。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>The risk here is not so much on the real estate market, as Logan correctly summarized, but rather the knock-on effects on consumption.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆-</i>正如洛根正确总结的那样，这里的风险与其说是房地产市场，不如说是对消费的连锁反应。</blockquote></p><p> The end of the federal eviction moratorium is a boon for apartment REITs which can resume collecting rent. However, that doesn’t mean investors should pile into residential REITs. have gone from deeply undervalued back to historically overvalued, as the below MAD Chart for Essex Property (ESS) shows. We previously suggested investors sell ESS.</p><p><blockquote>联邦驱逐禁令的结束对可以恢复收取租金的公寓房地产投资信托基金来说是一个福音。然而，这并不意味着投资者应该涌入住宅房地产投资信托基金。正如下面埃塞克斯地产(ESS)的MAD图表所示，已经从严重低估回到历史高估。我们之前建议投资者出售ESS。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc5c631a8b25f6a52735e699fbc69b29\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"293\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source:Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> Looking at the other residential REITs on the block, the same picture emerges. AvalonBay Communities (AVB) also is historically overvalued.</p><p><blockquote>看看该街区的其他住宅房地产投资信托基金，也会出现同样的情况。AvalonBay Communities(AVB)历来也被高估。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e17980a72bfba653b02553382a920419\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"315\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> None seem more overvalued relative to their historical normal range of prices than Camden Property Trust (CPT) which could easily come down by 1/3rdon a change in sentiment.</p><p><blockquote>相对于其历史正常价格范围，似乎没有比卡姆登房地产信托(CPT)更高估的了，如果情绪发生变化，卡姆登房地产信托(CPT)很容易下跌1/3。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/136a7707c3add17401e4dd4047278e14\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"303\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> I believe that this trade has passed. We bought ESS about a year ago, and have been selling it throughout the past few months.</p><p><blockquote>我相信这笔交易已经过去了。我们大约一年前购买了ESS，并在过去几个月里一直在出售它。</blockquote></p><p> Taking profits now in these industries makes sense: “buy the rumor/sell the news”.</p><p><blockquote>现在在这些行业获利了结是有道理的：“买入谣言/卖出消息”。</blockquote></p><p> If we’re looking ahead, we’re seeing one lever which will pressure consumption for a certain part of the population.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们展望未来，我们会看到一个杠杆将给某一部分人口的消费带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Student Loan Forbearance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>学生贷款延期</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>The Biden Administration extended the student loan pause until January 31, 2022. 1 in 6 adults in the US has student loans, with an average balance of ~$40,000. Most borrowers are under 30, a group that spends a higher percentage of their income than, say a 50-year old saving for retirement. Hit 1 in 6 American adults with an average$400 per month payment, paid with mostly post-tax dollars, and that's like stimulus in reverse. Anecdotally, almost no one I know who has student loans is currently paying them. The extra money they're getting from not paying loans is generally either being spent on consumption, invested in cryptocurrency, or in meme stocks like GameStop (GME). This is a decent threat to consumer spending, and there isn't an easy way out. The left wing of the Democratic Party in the US wants to cancel most or all student loans, but the main problem with this is that much of the debt is held by middle and upper-middle-class professionals, which would create a moral hazard as well as redistribute wealth from people lower on the socioeconomic ladder (for example, people who work in trades and pay their income taxes) to those of higher social class (for example, indebted white-collar college graduates). We're talking$1.7+ trillion in US student loansthat are generally not being serviced by those who owe it for this 21 month period. When those kick in again, consumer spending is not going to be higher than it is now. 2022 earnings estimates are mostly blind to this fact.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>拜登政府将学生贷款暂停期限延长至2022年1月31日。美国六分之一的成年人拥有学生贷款，平均余额约为4万美元。大多数借款人年龄在30岁以下，这个群体的支出占其收入的比例高于50岁的退休储蓄。六分之一的美国成年人平均每月支付400美元，大部分是税后美元，这就像是反向刺激。有趣的是，我认识的有学生贷款的人目前几乎没有人在偿还贷款。他们因不偿还贷款而获得的额外资金通常要么用于消费、投资加密货币，要么投资于游戏驿站(GME)等模因股票。这对消费者支出构成了相当大的威胁，而且没有简单的解决办法。美国民主党左翼希望取消大部分或全部学生贷款，但这样做的主要问题是，大部分债务由中产阶级和中上阶层的专业人士持有，这将造成道德风险，并将财富从社会经济阶梯较低的人（例如，从事贸易并缴纳所得税的人）重新分配到较高的社会阶层（例如，负债累累的白领大学毕业生）。我们谈论的是1.7多万亿美元的美国学生贷款，这些贷款在这21个月内通常没有被那些欠债的人偿还。当这些因素再次发挥作用时，消费者支出不会比现在高。2022年的盈利预测大多对这一事实视而不见。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>When Logan and I initially discussed this article, this seemed to be the easiest form of stimulus for the government to keep giving. Since most of the loans are federal, a pause on the payments doesn’t explicitly hurt anyone enough to complain. And since the handouts are not direct, critics aren’t as vocal as they are with stimulus checks. The money which has been put into various investments, be it stock or crypto, will come out when they have to start servicing debt again. Whether this has enough of an impact to move markets is questionable, but the retail meme stocks could finally have their day of reckoning as a large portion of the population has to resume payments. The aftermath of removing the pause on debt servicing will be harsh for an important part of the population. At least you’ll still be able to watch a movie at AMC Theater (AMC).</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆-</i>当洛根和我最初讨论这篇文章时，这似乎是政府继续给予的最容易的刺激形式。由于大多数贷款都是联邦贷款，暂停付款不会对任何人造成足够的伤害来抱怨。由于施舍不是直接的，批评者不像对刺激支票那样直言不讳。投入各种投资的资金，无论是股票还是加密货币，将在他们不得不再次开始偿还债务时流出。这是否会产生足够的影响来推动市场值得怀疑，但随着很大一部分人必须恢复支付，零售模因股票最终可能会迎来清算日。取消暂停偿债的后果对很大一部分人口来说将是严酷的。至少您仍然可以在AMC剧院(AMC)观看电影。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Enhanced Unemployment &amp; Stimulus Checks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>加强失业和刺激检查</b></blockquote></p><p> Logan- Enhanced unemployment runs out on September 6, and there are 11 million people who won't be getting it after that week. This is $3.3 billion per week that the Federal government is dripping out to unemployed persons, which in turn is a lot less than it was 12 months ago. When it's gone, it's yet another piece of the puzzle that will rein in consumer spending. Stimulus checks were another source of income for many Americans over the last 18 months. A family of 4 making the median income would have seen a stimulus check in March of $5,600, in addition to the prior payments under the Trump Administration. These aren't going to be going out anymore, and for middle-income Americans, this means that they won't be able to spend as much money as they have before. The expanded child tax credit may make up for this and is probably a more efficient means of getting money out, but it expires also in its current form in December.</p><p><blockquote>洛根——增强失业将于9月6日到期，在那一周之后，有1100万人将无法领取失业救济金。联邦政府每周向失业者发放33亿美元，这比12个月前要少得多。当它消失时，它将成为抑制消费者支出的又一块拼图。在过去的18个月里，刺激支票是许多美国人的另一个收入来源。除了特朗普政府之前的付款外，一个收入中位数的4口之家在3月份还会看到5600美元的刺激支票。这些不会再出去了，对于中等收入的美国人来说，这意味着他们将无法像以前那样花那么多钱。扩大的儿童税收抵免可能会弥补这一点，并且可能是一种更有效的提款方式，但目前的形式也将于12月到期。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>Enhanced Unemployment is running out in a few days, we’re likely to see many of the 8 million Americans who are looking for a job finally find one amongthe 10 million job openings. As of the time of writing, job data is to be posted in the next few hours. Strong job numbers could kick off a Fed taper sooner than expected.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆-</i>失业率的上升将在几天内消失，我们可能会看到800万正在找工作的美国人中的许多人最终在1000万个职位空缺中找到一个。截至撰写本文时，工作数据将在未来几个小时内发布。强劲的就业数据可能会比预期更早启动美联储缩减规模。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion: What Is Yet to Come?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论：接下来会发生什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>High profile earnings misses from the likes of Amazon (AMZN), Zoom Video (ZM), and Peloton (PTON) suggest that at least on a micro level, analysts assumed that good times would last forever for companies that benefitted from temporary changes resulting from the pandemic. Whether this is true on a macro level is a strong possibility, and depending on how the rest of earnings results come in for the rest of the year, it may end up becoming a reality. While it isn't set in stone that the market should necessarily go down significantly in price because of this, it's hard to deny that the risk-reward tradeoff for the market has deteriorated over the past 6-12 months. Now is a good time to dial back risk, if at all possible. A good defense, in both of our views, is to invest in high-quality companies rather than popular high-momentum stocks with middling fundamentals, and to take a long-term perspective.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>亚马逊(AMZN)、Zoom Video(ZM)和Peloton(PTON)等公司的盈利大幅下滑表明，至少在微观层面上，分析师认为，对于那些受益于暂时变化的公司来说，美好时光将永远持续下去。大流行。从宏观层面来看，这是否属实的可能性很大，而且取决于今年剩余时间的盈利结果，它最终可能会成为现实。虽然市场价格并不一定会因此大幅下跌，但很难否认市场的风险回报权衡在过去6-12个月中已经恶化。如果可能的话，现在是降低风险的好时机。在我们看来，一个好的防御是投资于优质公司，而不是基本面中等的热门高动能股票，并从长远角度来看。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>The inflation train has left the station. Powell believes it is transitory, I believe that it might be partially transitory, but the abundance of fiscal stimulus has kicked up a cycle of inflation which will be above 2% for quite some time. The Covid delta variant has softened some economic indicators like eating out in restaurants or travel, but as the country’s case count is already peaking, the economy is set to continue heating up.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆-</i>充气列车已经离开车站了。鲍威尔认为这是暂时的，我认为这可能是部分暂时的，但大量的财政刺激已经启动了通胀周期，通胀将在相当长的一段时间内保持在2%以上。新冠疫情德尔塔变异毒株削弱了外出就餐或旅行等一些经济指标，但随着该国病例数已经达到峰值，经济将继续升温。</blockquote></p><p> This will lead to a taper. Higher rates, or even the expectation of higher rates, will lead to a change in discount rates, which is a fancy way to say future profits are worthless.</p><p><blockquote>这将导致锥度。更高的利率，甚至更高利率的预期，都会导致贴现率的变化，这是一种说未来利润一文不值的奇特方式。</blockquote></p><p> Investors want to take a hard look at their portfolios and ask whether they have positions which are overvalued beyond reason?</p><p><blockquote>投资者希望仔细审视他们的投资组合，并询问他们是否拥有被过度高估的头寸？</blockquote></p><p> No need to look at obscure parts of the market, this is playing out in the S&amp;P 500 (SPY).</p><p><blockquote>无需关注市场中不起眼的部分，这正在标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）上演。</blockquote></p><p> For instance, I cannot fathom how a stock like Intuit (INTU) currently trades at 16x sales? Even on its lofty usual measure of 8-9x sales, this is unusually high. Compare it to the stock's historical dividend, and the reading is off the wall.</p><p><blockquote>例如，我无法理解像Intuit(INTU)这样的股票目前的交易价格是销售额的16倍？即使按照通常8-9倍的销售额来衡量，这也是异常高的。将其与该股票的历史股息进行比较，读数是惊人的。</blockquote></p><p> Investors want to focus on companies with strong earnings power, large-scale operations, which are trading at relatively cheap valuations.</p><p><blockquote>投资者希望关注盈利能力强、经营规模大、估值相对便宜的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Among those that come to mind in the top 100 stocks are Amgen (AMGN) which currently yields over 3%.</p><p><blockquote>前100名股票中我想到的是安进(AMGN)，该公司目前的收益率超过3%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd53f68bc9f02f82e05458098625b0a7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"297\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> Philip Morris International (PM), Broadcom (AVGO), and Morgan Stanley (MS.PK) are also undervalued relative to their historical valuations.</p><p><blockquote>菲利普莫里斯国际（PM）、博通（AVGO）和摩根士丹利（MS.PK）相对于其历史估值也被低估。</blockquote></p><p> In such an environment, focus on quality is a must. Focus on value is a close second. We’re looking to buy the highest quality assets with growth prospects at a decent price. We’re very cautious that stimulus unwinding will hit consumption which will hit earning results. Big misses from overvalued names spells trouble. The responsible thing to do is to scale out of stocks when they become overvalued.</p><p><blockquote>在这样的环境下，注重质量是必须的。关注价值紧随其后。我们希望以合理的价格购买具有增长前景的最优质资产。我们非常谨慎地认为，刺激措施的取消将打击消费，从而影响盈利结果。估值过高的名字的重大失误会带来麻烦。负责任的做法是在股票估值过高时退出。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453272-what-will-happen-when-trillions-in-stimulus-runs-out-in-2022\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453272-what-will-happen-when-trillions-in-stimulus-runs-out-in-2022","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115112299","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe US economy and stock market have benefitted from an unprecedented amount of stimulus in 2021.\nWith expanded unemployment set to end, student loan & mortgage forbearance to end, and a possible corporate tax rate hike on the horizon, it's possible 2022 earnings estimates for stocks are simply too high.\nIn light of this, the broad stock market faces an unattractive risk-reward proposition.\nI break down the possibilities and game plan with expert value/dividend investor Sam Kovacs.\n\nIntroduction\nLogan–The United States government has turned to an unprecedented amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus to help the economy through the COVID-19 pandemic. Notable examples include multiple rounds of stimulus checks, the student loan pause, mortgage forbearance/eviction moratorium, PPP, and enhanced unemployment benefits. So far, this effort seems to have been successful, although critics point out that it has resulted in significant increases in inflation. However, the political and economic reality is that the US can't run $3 trillion deficits forever, at least without everyone implicitly paying for it via higher consumer prices compared to their earnings.\nThe weight of theevidence suggeststhat prices are rising faster than wages. In turn, the government has stepped in to fill this gap with stimulus payments, but the trillion-dollar question is what happens when the economy has to run on its own productivity–rather than on temporary transfer payments. For 2021, thanks to pent-up demand and stimulus, S&P 500 components are expected to smash the record for the highest amount ever earned in a year (somewhere between $200 and $205 per share for 2021, vs. the previous record of $163 in 2019). Wall Street analysts additionally expect the S&P 500 to earn~$215 per share in 2022, which would be yet another record. When you pull numbers forproductivity and economic output, the picture isn't as great, which helps explain why there are so many shortages of goods and services right now. If you feel that the change in nominal economic output is more indicative of what corporations can earn over the medium term (taking away the impact of consumers spending temporary transfer payments), you get an earnings number for the S&P 500 closer to $180, which is about 15 percent lower than Wall Street is currently expecting.\nPutting further pressure on earnings is the potential corporate tax hike from 21 percent to 25 percent, which will decrease S&P 500 earnings by 5 percent, all else being equal. Political betting markets show that this has a roughly50/50 chance of becoming lawat the moment. With many investors making easy money piling into low-conviction, high momentum names, the consequences of unwinding stimulus could be a shock to their portfolio balances. Helping me make sense of the stimulus unwind is fellowSeeking AlphaauthorSam Kovacs.Although living halfway across the world from me here in suburban Texas, Sam and I think eerily alike about the markets, gravitating to high-quality stocks with solid earnings and dividends.\nSam–Within the first couple of months of the Fed’s reaction to the pandemic, I was concerned that they would be placing themselves between a rock and a hard place. I would not have wanted to be in Powell’s shoes, but then again there aren’t many government jobs I’d consider taking. Striking a balance between pulling stimulus too early and risking runaway inflation is no easy task. The government has looked to prior crashes and decided that risking inflation was the way to go.\nKeep telling the people that it is “transitory” and surely it will be. But anyone who has taken Econ 101 knows that inflation feeds on itself. At first, companies are reactionary, but then they become proactive in pricing measures. Here are a few snippets.\nFrom Hormel's (HRL) latestcall:\nWe have taken numerous pricing actions across the portfolio to protect profitability. The actions will take place early in the third quarter with additional pricing actions likely.\nFrom Conagra's (CAG) latestcall:\nAnd the short answer is yes. In fact, we began implementing pricing actions on some of our products in the quarter related to the initial inflation we experienced. The very early read on the data from those actions is that our elasticities look good so far. And we have more pricing coming.\nThere will be no shortage of inflation in food in upcoming quarters. Oil price still has a couple of quarters of weak comparables which continue to contribute to higher headline inflation rates.\nFood & transportation, along with housing are the major costs of US households. For1/6thof adults, you can throw in student loans as well. US consumers have been able to absorb the inflation on the back of various stimulus efforts.\nBut the stimulus can’t last forever. Part of it is being extended as Delta is slowing (not killing) the recovery. What happens when the different forms of stimulus fade? That’s what we’re going to look at in the rest of the article.\nThe Eviction/Foreclosure Moratorium\nLogan–Foreclosures have started again, and the Supreme Court recentlystruck downthe eviction moratorium imposed by the CDC. By my last count, there are about1.5 million householdswho are in forbearance programs at the moment (i.e. not paying their mortgages), against somewhere in the ballpark of 50 million mortgages in the US. Foreclosure is a process, not an event, and the most common outcome is that people get behind on their payments, try to work with the bank for 6-12 months, and then eventually sell, collect their equity, and move somewhere cheaper. The problem in 2008 was that borrowers had negative equity on their mortgages, so it short-circuited this process. This isn't the case now–I don't see a systematic risk to the economy from foreclosures. Around 6-7 million houses in the US are bought and sold in a typical year, meaning in a vacuum, most people who are behind could sell over a 6-12 month period, and it would be a win-win for those struggling with the shortage of houses to buy and those who can't make payments on the ones they own. The Fed taper might complicate this. If mortgage rates go back up to the ~4 percent they've averaged over the last 10 years at the same time people are unloading houses they've been in forbearance on, prices are going to come down more.\nEvictions are messier–there are millions of people not paying rent and living off the extra money. When they have to start paying rent again somewhere else, their household budgets are going to dramatically shrink. Roughly 2-3 percent of American households are significantly behind on rent, so I would expect a lot of both formal and informal (cash for keys) evictions. This has to negatively affect consumer spending, and earnings estimates that ignore the unwind of stimulus are not properly accounting for it.\nSam–The risk here is not so much on the real estate market, as Logan correctly summarized, but rather the knock-on effects on consumption.\nThe end of the federal eviction moratorium is a boon for apartment REITs which can resume collecting rent. However, that doesn’t mean investors should pile into residential REITs. have gone from deeply undervalued back to historically overvalued, as the below MAD Chart for Essex Property (ESS) shows. We previously suggested investors sell ESS.\n\nSource:Dividend Freedom Tribe\nLooking at the other residential REITs on the block, the same picture emerges. AvalonBay Communities (AVB) also is historically overvalued.\n\nSource: Dividend Freedom Tribe\nNone seem more overvalued relative to their historical normal range of prices than Camden Property Trust (CPT) which could easily come down by 1/3rdon a change in sentiment.\n\nSource: Dividend Freedom Tribe\nI believe that this trade has passed. We bought ESS about a year ago, and have been selling it throughout the past few months.\nTaking profits now in these industries makes sense: “buy the rumor/sell the news”.\nIf we’re looking ahead, we’re seeing one lever which will pressure consumption for a certain part of the population.\nStudent Loan Forbearance\nLogan–The Biden Administration extended the student loan pause until January 31, 2022. 1 in 6 adults in the US has student loans, with an average balance of ~$40,000. Most borrowers are under 30, a group that spends a higher percentage of their income than, say a 50-year old saving for retirement. Hit 1 in 6 American adults with an average$400 per month payment, paid with mostly post-tax dollars, and that's like stimulus in reverse. Anecdotally, almost no one I know who has student loans is currently paying them. The extra money they're getting from not paying loans is generally either being spent on consumption, invested in cryptocurrency, or in meme stocks like GameStop (GME). This is a decent threat to consumer spending, and there isn't an easy way out. The left wing of the Democratic Party in the US wants to cancel most or all student loans, but the main problem with this is that much of the debt is held by middle and upper-middle-class professionals, which would create a moral hazard as well as redistribute wealth from people lower on the socioeconomic ladder (for example, people who work in trades and pay their income taxes) to those of higher social class (for example, indebted white-collar college graduates). We're talking$1.7+ trillion in US student loansthat are generally not being serviced by those who owe it for this 21 month period. When those kick in again, consumer spending is not going to be higher than it is now. 2022 earnings estimates are mostly blind to this fact.\nSam–When Logan and I initially discussed this article, this seemed to be the easiest form of stimulus for the government to keep giving. Since most of the loans are federal, a pause on the payments doesn’t explicitly hurt anyone enough to complain. And since the handouts are not direct, critics aren’t as vocal as they are with stimulus checks. The money which has been put into various investments, be it stock or crypto, will come out when they have to start servicing debt again. Whether this has enough of an impact to move markets is questionable, but the retail meme stocks could finally have their day of reckoning as a large portion of the population has to resume payments. The aftermath of removing the pause on debt servicing will be harsh for an important part of the population. At least you’ll still be able to watch a movie at AMC Theater (AMC).\nEnhanced Unemployment & Stimulus Checks\nLogan- Enhanced unemployment runs out on September 6, and there are 11 million people who won't be getting it after that week. This is $3.3 billion per week that the Federal government is dripping out to unemployed persons, which in turn is a lot less than it was 12 months ago. When it's gone, it's yet another piece of the puzzle that will rein in consumer spending. Stimulus checks were another source of income for many Americans over the last 18 months. A family of 4 making the median income would have seen a stimulus check in March of $5,600, in addition to the prior payments under the Trump Administration. These aren't going to be going out anymore, and for middle-income Americans, this means that they won't be able to spend as much money as they have before. The expanded child tax credit may make up for this and is probably a more efficient means of getting money out, but it expires also in its current form in December.\nSam–Enhanced Unemployment is running out in a few days, we’re likely to see many of the 8 million Americans who are looking for a job finally find one amongthe 10 million job openings. As of the time of writing, job data is to be posted in the next few hours. Strong job numbers could kick off a Fed taper sooner than expected.\nConclusion: What Is Yet to Come?\nLogan–High profile earnings misses from the likes of Amazon (AMZN), Zoom Video (ZM), and Peloton (PTON) suggest that at least on a micro level, analysts assumed that good times would last forever for companies that benefitted from temporary changes resulting from the pandemic. Whether this is true on a macro level is a strong possibility, and depending on how the rest of earnings results come in for the rest of the year, it may end up becoming a reality. While it isn't set in stone that the market should necessarily go down significantly in price because of this, it's hard to deny that the risk-reward tradeoff for the market has deteriorated over the past 6-12 months. Now is a good time to dial back risk, if at all possible. A good defense, in both of our views, is to invest in high-quality companies rather than popular high-momentum stocks with middling fundamentals, and to take a long-term perspective.\nSam–The inflation train has left the station. Powell believes it is transitory, I believe that it might be partially transitory, but the abundance of fiscal stimulus has kicked up a cycle of inflation which will be above 2% for quite some time. The Covid delta variant has softened some economic indicators like eating out in restaurants or travel, but as the country’s case count is already peaking, the economy is set to continue heating up.\nThis will lead to a taper. Higher rates, or even the expectation of higher rates, will lead to a change in discount rates, which is a fancy way to say future profits are worthless.\nInvestors want to take a hard look at their portfolios and ask whether they have positions which are overvalued beyond reason?\nNo need to look at obscure parts of the market, this is playing out in the S&P 500 (SPY).\nFor instance, I cannot fathom how a stock like Intuit (INTU) currently trades at 16x sales? Even on its lofty usual measure of 8-9x sales, this is unusually high. Compare it to the stock's historical dividend, and the reading is off the wall.\nInvestors want to focus on companies with strong earnings power, large-scale operations, which are trading at relatively cheap valuations.\nAmong those that come to mind in the top 100 stocks are Amgen (AMGN) which currently yields over 3%.\n\nSource: Dividend Freedom Tribe\nPhilip Morris International (PM), Broadcom (AVGO), and Morgan Stanley (MS.PK) are also undervalued relative to their historical valuations.\nIn such an environment, focus on quality is a must. Focus on value is a close second. We’re looking to buy the highest quality assets with growth prospects at a decent price. We’re very cautious that stimulus unwinding will hit consumption which will hit earning results. Big misses from overvalued names spells trouble. The responsible thing to do is to scale out of stocks when they become overvalued.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2031,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":810856359,"gmtCreate":1629965727471,"gmtModify":1633681135994,"author":{"id":"3583811401087980","authorId":"3583811401087980","name":"DLIM","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/140bf807c414ea069de5f87b2b1509cd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583811401087980","authorIdStr":"3583811401087980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"In general, Huya financial and management&nbsp;performance are better than Douyu. This merger&nbsp;cancellation could be a blessing in disguise for Huya.","listText":"In general, Huya financial and management&nbsp;performance are better than Douyu. This merger&nbsp;cancellation could be a blessing in disguise for Huya.","text":"In general, Huya financial and management performance are better than Douyu. This merger cancellation could be a blessing in disguise for Huya.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/810856359","repostId":"2162061803","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1953,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":890066119,"gmtCreate":1628068052331,"gmtModify":1633753900267,"author":{"id":"3583811401087980","authorId":"3583811401087980","name":"DLIM","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/140bf807c414ea069de5f87b2b1509cd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583811401087980","authorIdStr":"3583811401087980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Not only the Margin is low; the Revenue is decreasing over past few years","listText":"Not only the Margin is low; the Revenue is decreasing over past few years","text":"Not only the Margin is low; the Revenue is decreasing over past few years","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/890066119","repostId":"1177585640","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3196,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":804751608,"gmtCreate":1627982652304,"gmtModify":1633754665470,"author":{"id":"3583811401087980","authorId":"3583811401087980","name":"DLIM","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/140bf807c414ea069de5f87b2b1509cd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583811401087980","authorIdStr":"3583811401087980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"There's light at the end of tunnel. Global demand for fossil fuels will continue while transition to alternative&nbsp; and renewable energy.","listText":"There's light at the end of tunnel. Global demand for fossil fuels will continue while transition to alternative&nbsp; and renewable energy.","text":"There's light at the end of tunnel. Global demand for fossil fuels will continue while transition to alternative and renewable energy.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/804751608","repostId":"2156149842","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3622,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":805525602,"gmtCreate":1627893144706,"gmtModify":1633755531596,"author":{"id":"3583811401087980","authorId":"3583811401087980","name":"DLIM","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/140bf807c414ea069de5f87b2b1509cd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583811401087980","authorIdStr":"3583811401087980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Another manipulating move by Elon&nbsp;[白眼]&nbsp;","listText":"Another manipulating move by Elon&nbsp;[白眼]&nbsp;","text":"Another manipulating move by Elon [白眼]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/805525602","repostId":"1101994060","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4222,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":805563567,"gmtCreate":1627892339659,"gmtModify":1633755541465,"author":{"id":"3583811401087980","authorId":"3583811401087980","name":"DLIM","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/140bf807c414ea069de5f87b2b1509cd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583811401087980","authorIdStr":"3583811401087980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nano-X company background and product data information raise red flags","listText":"Nano-X company background and product data information raise red flags","text":"Nano-X company background and product data information raise red flags","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/805563567","repostId":"2156169749","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1375,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":803720321,"gmtCreate":1627465424963,"gmtModify":1633764747399,"author":{"id":"3583811401087980","authorId":"3583811401087980","name":"DLIM","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/140bf807c414ea069de5f87b2b1509cd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583811401087980","authorIdStr":"3583811401087980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Market irrational.... stay calm&nbsp;","listText":"Market irrational.... stay calm&nbsp;","text":"Market irrational.... stay calm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/803720321","repostId":"2154003945","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":475,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":803714846,"gmtCreate":1627463660685,"gmtModify":1633764759820,"author":{"id":"3583811401087980","authorId":"3583811401087980","name":"DLIM","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/140bf807c414ea069de5f87b2b1509cd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583811401087980","authorIdStr":"3583811401087980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Market oversold due to fear","listText":"Market oversold due to fear","text":"Market oversold due to fear","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/803714846","repostId":"1154854343","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154854343","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1627481786,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1154854343?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-28 22:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Hot Chinese concept stocks continue to rebound<blockquote>热点中概股持续反弹</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154854343","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Hot Chinese concept stocks continue to rebound in Wednesday morning trading.Alibaba,JD.com, Pinduodu","content":"<p>Hot Chinese concept stocks continue to rebound&nbsp;in Wednesday morning trading.Alibaba,JD.com,&nbsp;Pinduoduo,Baidu,DiDi&nbsp;Global,Nio,Xpeng Motors and Li Auto&nbsp;climbed between 3% and 13%.</p><p><blockquote>周三早盘热门中概股继续反弹，阿里巴巴、京东、拼多多、百度、滴滴全球、蔚来、小鹏汽车和理想汽车涨幅在3%至13%之间。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8198eadc3c17e2d3fa3226a5348e1bef\" tg-width=\"359\" tg-height=\"603\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hot Chinese concept stocks continue to rebound<blockquote>热点中概股持续反弹</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; 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#7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHot Chinese concept stocks continue to rebound<blockquote>热点中概股持续反弹</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-28 22:16</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Hot Chinese concept stocks continue to rebound&nbsp;in Wednesday morning trading.Alibaba,JD.com,&nbsp;Pinduoduo,Baidu,DiDi&nbsp;Global,Nio,Xpeng Motors and Li Auto&nbsp;climbed between 3% and 13%.</p><p><blockquote>周三早盘热门中概股继续反弹，阿里巴巴、京东、拼多多、百度、滴滴全球、蔚来、小鹏汽车和理想汽车涨幅在3%至13%之间。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8198eadc3c17e2d3fa3226a5348e1bef\" tg-width=\"359\" tg-height=\"603\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)","JD":"京东","BABA":"阿里巴巴","LI":"理想汽车","PDD":"拼多多","BIDU":"百度","NTES":"网易","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","NIO":"蔚来"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154854343","content_text":"Hot Chinese concept stocks continue to rebound in Wednesday morning trading.Alibaba,JD.com, Pinduoduo,Baidu,DiDi Global,Nio,Xpeng Motors and Li Auto climbed between 3% and 13%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9,"JD":0.9,"LI":0.9,"NTES":0.9,"NIO":0.9,"XPEV":0.9,"DIDI":0.9,"PDD":0.9,"BIDU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":898,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":175664354,"gmtCreate":1627029338178,"gmtModify":1631892752840,"author":{"id":"3583811401087980","authorId":"3583811401087980","name":"DLIM","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/140bf807c414ea069de5f87b2b1509cd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583811401087980","authorIdStr":"3583811401087980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Maybe could consider Consumer Staples and Discretionary stocks which should have high secular domestic demands","listText":"Maybe could consider Consumer Staples and Discretionary stocks which should have high secular domestic demands","text":"Maybe could consider Consumer Staples and Discretionary stocks which should have high secular domestic demands","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/175664354","repostId":"1112567098","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":613,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":172185654,"gmtCreate":1626944473478,"gmtModify":1633769513648,"author":{"id":"3583811401087980","authorId":"3583811401087980","name":"DLIM","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/140bf807c414ea069de5f87b2b1509cd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583811401087980","authorIdStr":"3583811401087980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Is he trying to manipulate the market?","listText":"Is he trying to manipulate the market?","text":"Is he trying to manipulate the market?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/172185654","repostId":"1153484478","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":828,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":178900538,"gmtCreate":1626777649924,"gmtModify":1633771145138,"author":{"id":"3583811401087980","authorId":"3583811401087980","name":"DLIM","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/140bf807c414ea069de5f87b2b1509cd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583811401087980","authorIdStr":"3583811401087980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Xpeng is the future of EV&nbsp;","listText":"Xpeng is the future of EV&nbsp;","text":"Xpeng is the future of 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living","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/173965850","repostId":"1156209584","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":739,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173987635,"gmtCreate":1626600608527,"gmtModify":1633925555878,"author":{"id":"3583811401087980","authorId":"3583811401087980","name":"DLIM","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/140bf807c414ea069de5f87b2b1509cd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583811401087980","authorIdStr":"3583811401087980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Consider do a Sell Put Option","listText":"Consider do a Sell Put Option","text":"Consider do a Sell Put Option","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/173987635","repostId":"2152336681","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":338,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173986657,"gmtCreate":1626599864579,"gmtModify":1633925560225,"author":{"id":"3583811401087980","authorId":"3583811401087980","name":"DLIM","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/140bf807c414ea069de5f87b2b1509cd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583811401087980","authorIdStr":"3583811401087980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Potfolio diversification and management is important","listText":"Potfolio diversification and management is important","text":"Potfolio diversification and management is important","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/173986657","repostId":"1149577900","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":633,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":144061550,"gmtCreate":1626254207670,"gmtModify":1633928605159,"author":{"id":"3583811401087980","authorId":"3583811401087980","name":"DLIM","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/140bf807c414ea069de5f87b2b1509cd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583811401087980","authorIdStr":"3583811401087980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good information","listText":"Good information","text":"Good information","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/144061550","repostId":"1148011457","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148011457","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626226288,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148011457?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-14 09:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"This surge in inflation will soon be history — because companies will sacrifice profit for market share<blockquote>这种通胀飙升很快将成为历史——因为公司将牺牲利润来换取市场份额</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148011457","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Market share trumps pricing power.\n\nInflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for t","content":"<p>  <b>Market share trumps pricing power.</b>  Inflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for this cycle.</p><p><blockquote><b>市场份额胜过定价权。</b>6月份通胀飙升，但目前已达到或接近本周期的峰值。</blockquote></p><p> What will determine the path of consumer-price inflation from this point on is how companies answer a key question: What is more important, protecting profit margins or protecting market share?</p><p><blockquote>从现在开始，将决定消费者价格通胀路径的是企业如何回答一个关键问题：保护利润率和保护市场份额哪个更重要？</blockquote></p><p> There is no doubt that input costs have soared. Paying higher wages to attract new workers and retain current employees does raise operating expenses. So does spending more on key commodities. The temptation therefore to pass those higher costs on to customers is strong.</p><p><blockquote>毫无疑问，投入成本飙升。支付更高的工资来吸引新员工并留住现有员工确实会增加运营费用。在关键商品上的支出增加也是如此。因此，将这些更高的成本转嫁给客户的诱惑很大。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Calculated risk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>计算风险</b></blockquote></p><p> But it is also a calculated risk. There is always the fear that longtime clients will walk away and instead do business with a competitor who suddenly sees an opportunity to stand out from the pack by dropping prices. And if there is one painful lesson companies of all sizes have learned it is that once you lose market share, it is hellishly difficult and expensive to get it back.</p><p><blockquote>但这也是一个经过计算的风险。人们总是担心长期客户会离开，转而与突然看到通过降价脱颖而出的机会的竞争对手做生意。如果说各种规模的公司都吸取了一个惨痛的教训，那就是一旦失去市场份额，想要夺回市场份额是极其困难和昂贵的。</blockquote></p><p> What June’s 0.9% jump in the consumer price index tells us is that most businesses found their operating expenses increased way too much and way too quickly to simply be absorbed. They had to make up for those shrinking margins by charging consumers more.</p><p><blockquote>6月份消费者价格指数上涨0.9%告诉我们，大多数企业发现他们的运营费用增长太多、太快，根本无法吸收。他们不得不通过向消费者收取更多费用来弥补利润的萎缩。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd8661c9e62b57cf95d3d61da103d77a\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"710\">Again, it’s a calculated risk and probably a safe one…for now! After all, households&nbsp;are flush with cash and eager to spend, and that means Americans are less likely to be price sensitive at this time. We haven’t seen such pricing power in decades. Inflation has risen by 5.4% over the past 12 months, the fastest gain since the summer of 2008, with core CPI up a sharp 4.5%, the most since 1991.</p><p><blockquote>再说一次，这是一个经过计算的风险，而且可能是安全的…就目前而言！毕竟，家庭现金充裕，渴望消费，这意味着美国人此时不太可能对价格敏感。我们已经几十年没有见过这样的定价权了。过去12个月通胀率上涨5.4%，为2008年夏季以来最快涨幅，核心CPI大幅上涨4.5%，为1991年以来最大涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> So long as pricing power doesn’t threaten market share, inflation will continue to creep higher. But history has shown this cannot last long. Price competition will re-emerge in the second half of the year and more vigorously in 2022 and that should soften inflation pressures. Here’s why.</p><p><blockquote>只要定价权不威胁市场份额，通胀就会继续攀升。但历史表明，这种情况不会持续太久。价格竞争将在今年下半年重新出现，并在2022年更加激烈，这应该会缓解通胀压力。原因如下。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Here’s why inflation has peaked</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这就是通货膨胀见顶的原因</b></blockquote></p><p> First, as Washington transitions from fiscal stimulus to fiscal restraint, we expect to see household consumption ease accordingly.</p><p><blockquote>首先，随着华盛顿从财政刺激转向财政紧缩，我们预计家庭消费将相应缓解。</blockquote></p><p> Second, the enormous buildup in pent-up demand by consumers over the past year provided the economy with much forward momentum. But as demand is being satisfied, this spending drive will lose momentum.</p><p><blockquote>其次，过去一年消费者被压抑的需求大幅增加，为经济提供了巨大的前进动力。但随着需求得到满足，这种支出驱动将失去动力。</blockquote></p><p> Third, there is little doubt the Federal Reserve is gearing up to scale back purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries. Whether it begins to taper quantitative easing at the end of this year or early next, once they do, the cost of borrowing will increase. That will slow both home sales and capital investments.</p><p><blockquote>第三，毫无疑问，美联储正准备缩减对抵押贷款支持证券和美国国债的购买。无论是今年年底还是明年初开始缩减量化宽松，一旦他们这样做，借贷成本都会增加。这将减缓房屋销售和资本投资。</blockquote></p><p> Fourth, the supply-chain bottlenecks of the first half have begun to ease. Cargo ships are being unloaded at a faster pace, especially on the West Coast. This improvement in logistics sets the stage for the price of commodities and finished goods to drift lower.</p><p><blockquote>第四，上半年的供应链瓶颈开始缓解。货船正在以更快的速度卸货，尤其是在西海岸。物流的改善为大宗商品和成品价格的走低奠定了基础。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, and I say this will some reluctance, as much as we wish to declare victory over the COVID-19 virus, it would be premature to do so. The appearance of new variants (Delta, Delta plus and now Lambda) in the U.S., combined with the challenge of getting 70% to 80% of the U.S. population fully vaccinated (the figure is only 48% as of today, according to the CDC) raises the specter of another wave of infections in the fall and winter. That, too, could also take some wind out of the economy.</p><p><blockquote>最后，我要说，这将是一些不情愿，尽管我们希望宣布战胜新冠肺炎病毒，但这样做还为时过早。新变种（Delta、Delta plus和现在的Lambda）在美国的出现，加上让70%至80%的美国人口完全接种疫苗的挑战（根据CDC的数据，截至今天，这一数字仅为48%），引发了秋冬季另一波感染的担忧。这也可能会给经济带来一些压力。</blockquote></p><p> Our assessment is we are near the peak in the inflation cycle and most voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee share this general sentiment. The forces that drive price competition and bring down retail prices are bound to emerge as consumers seek out more deals and as firms refocus on locking in, if not expanding, their market share.</p><p><blockquote>我们的评估是，我们已接近通胀周期的顶峰，联邦公开市场委员会的大多数投票成员都认同这一普遍情绪。随着消费者寻求更多交易，以及企业重新专注于锁定（如果不是扩大）市场份额，推动价格竞争和降低零售价格的力量必然会出现。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This surge in inflation will soon be history — because companies will sacrifice profit for market share<blockquote>这种通胀飙升很快将成为历史——因为公司将牺牲利润来换取市场份额</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis surge in inflation will soon be history — because companies will sacrifice profit for market share<blockquote>这种通胀飙升很快将成为历史——因为公司将牺牲利润来换取市场份额</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-14 09:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>Market share trumps pricing power.</b>  Inflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for this cycle.</p><p><blockquote><b>市场份额胜过定价权。</b>6月份通胀飙升，但目前已达到或接近本周期的峰值。</blockquote></p><p> What will determine the path of consumer-price inflation from this point on is how companies answer a key question: What is more important, protecting profit margins or protecting market share?</p><p><blockquote>从现在开始，将决定消费者价格通胀路径的是企业如何回答一个关键问题：保护利润率和保护市场份额哪个更重要？</blockquote></p><p> There is no doubt that input costs have soared. Paying higher wages to attract new workers and retain current employees does raise operating expenses. So does spending more on key commodities. The temptation therefore to pass those higher costs on to customers is strong.</p><p><blockquote>毫无疑问，投入成本飙升。支付更高的工资来吸引新员工并留住现有员工确实会增加运营费用。在关键商品上的支出增加也是如此。因此，将这些更高的成本转嫁给客户的诱惑很大。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Calculated risk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>计算风险</b></blockquote></p><p> But it is also a calculated risk. There is always the fear that longtime clients will walk away and instead do business with a competitor who suddenly sees an opportunity to stand out from the pack by dropping prices. And if there is one painful lesson companies of all sizes have learned it is that once you lose market share, it is hellishly difficult and expensive to get it back.</p><p><blockquote>但这也是一个经过计算的风险。人们总是担心长期客户会离开，转而与突然看到通过降价脱颖而出的机会的竞争对手做生意。如果说各种规模的公司都吸取了一个惨痛的教训，那就是一旦失去市场份额，想要夺回市场份额是极其困难和昂贵的。</blockquote></p><p> What June’s 0.9% jump in the consumer price index tells us is that most businesses found their operating expenses increased way too much and way too quickly to simply be absorbed. They had to make up for those shrinking margins by charging consumers more.</p><p><blockquote>6月份消费者价格指数上涨0.9%告诉我们，大多数企业发现他们的运营费用增长太多、太快，根本无法吸收。他们不得不通过向消费者收取更多费用来弥补利润的萎缩。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd8661c9e62b57cf95d3d61da103d77a\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"710\">Again, it’s a calculated risk and probably a safe one…for now! After all, households&nbsp;are flush with cash and eager to spend, and that means Americans are less likely to be price sensitive at this time. We haven’t seen such pricing power in decades. Inflation has risen by 5.4% over the past 12 months, the fastest gain since the summer of 2008, with core CPI up a sharp 4.5%, the most since 1991.</p><p><blockquote>再说一次，这是一个经过计算的风险，而且可能是安全的…就目前而言！毕竟，家庭现金充裕，渴望消费，这意味着美国人此时不太可能对价格敏感。我们已经几十年没有见过这样的定价权了。过去12个月通胀率上涨5.4%，为2008年夏季以来最快涨幅，核心CPI大幅上涨4.5%，为1991年以来最大涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> So long as pricing power doesn’t threaten market share, inflation will continue to creep higher. But history has shown this cannot last long. Price competition will re-emerge in the second half of the year and more vigorously in 2022 and that should soften inflation pressures. Here’s why.</p><p><blockquote>只要定价权不威胁市场份额，通胀就会继续攀升。但历史表明，这种情况不会持续太久。价格竞争将在今年下半年重新出现，并在2022年更加激烈，这应该会缓解通胀压力。原因如下。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Here’s why inflation has peaked</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这就是通货膨胀见顶的原因</b></blockquote></p><p> First, as Washington transitions from fiscal stimulus to fiscal restraint, we expect to see household consumption ease accordingly.</p><p><blockquote>首先，随着华盛顿从财政刺激转向财政紧缩，我们预计家庭消费将相应缓解。</blockquote></p><p> Second, the enormous buildup in pent-up demand by consumers over the past year provided the economy with much forward momentum. But as demand is being satisfied, this spending drive will lose momentum.</p><p><blockquote>其次，过去一年消费者被压抑的需求大幅增加，为经济提供了巨大的前进动力。但随着需求得到满足，这种支出驱动将失去动力。</blockquote></p><p> Third, there is little doubt the Federal Reserve is gearing up to scale back purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries. Whether it begins to taper quantitative easing at the end of this year or early next, once they do, the cost of borrowing will increase. That will slow both home sales and capital investments.</p><p><blockquote>第三，毫无疑问，美联储正准备缩减对抵押贷款支持证券和美国国债的购买。无论是今年年底还是明年初开始缩减量化宽松，一旦他们这样做，借贷成本都会增加。这将减缓房屋销售和资本投资。</blockquote></p><p> Fourth, the supply-chain bottlenecks of the first half have begun to ease. Cargo ships are being unloaded at a faster pace, especially on the West Coast. This improvement in logistics sets the stage for the price of commodities and finished goods to drift lower.</p><p><blockquote>第四，上半年的供应链瓶颈开始缓解。货船正在以更快的速度卸货，尤其是在西海岸。物流的改善为大宗商品和成品价格的走低奠定了基础。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, and I say this will some reluctance, as much as we wish to declare victory over the COVID-19 virus, it would be premature to do so. The appearance of new variants (Delta, Delta plus and now Lambda) in the U.S., combined with the challenge of getting 70% to 80% of the U.S. population fully vaccinated (the figure is only 48% as of today, according to the CDC) raises the specter of another wave of infections in the fall and winter. That, too, could also take some wind out of the economy.</p><p><blockquote>最后，我要说，这将是一些不情愿，尽管我们希望宣布战胜新冠肺炎病毒，但这样做还为时过早。新变种（Delta、Delta plus和现在的Lambda）在美国的出现，加上让70%至80%的美国人口完全接种疫苗的挑战（根据CDC的数据，截至今天，这一数字仅为48%），引发了秋冬季另一波感染的担忧。这也可能会给经济带来一些压力。</blockquote></p><p> Our assessment is we are near the peak in the inflation cycle and most voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee share this general sentiment. The forces that drive price competition and bring down retail prices are bound to emerge as consumers seek out more deals and as firms refocus on locking in, if not expanding, their market share.</p><p><blockquote>我们的评估是，我们已接近通胀周期的顶峰，联邦公开市场委员会的大多数投票成员都认同这一普遍情绪。随着消费者寻求更多交易，以及企业重新专注于锁定（如果不是扩大）市场份额，推动价格竞争和降低零售价格的力量必然会出现。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/five-reasons-weve-seen-the-peak-of-inflation-for-this-cycle-11626195636?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/five-reasons-weve-seen-the-peak-of-inflation-for-this-cycle-11626195636?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148011457","content_text":"Market share trumps pricing power.\n\nInflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for this cycle.\nWhat will determine the path of consumer-price inflation from this point on is how companies answer a key question: What is more important, protecting profit margins or protecting market share?\nThere is no doubt that input costs have soared. Paying higher wages to attract new workers and retain current employees does raise operating expenses. So does spending more on key commodities. The temptation therefore to pass those higher costs on to customers is strong.\nCalculated risk\nBut it is also a calculated risk. There is always the fear that longtime clients will walk away and instead do business with a competitor who suddenly sees an opportunity to stand out from the pack by dropping prices. And if there is one painful lesson companies of all sizes have learned it is that once you lose market share, it is hellishly difficult and expensive to get it back.\nWhat June’s 0.9% jump in the consumer price index tells us is that most businesses found their operating expenses increased way too much and way too quickly to simply be absorbed. They had to make up for those shrinking margins by charging consumers more.\nAgain, it’s a calculated risk and probably a safe one…for now! After all, households are flush with cash and eager to spend, and that means Americans are less likely to be price sensitive at this time. We haven’t seen such pricing power in decades. Inflation has risen by 5.4% over the past 12 months, the fastest gain since the summer of 2008, with core CPI up a sharp 4.5%, the most since 1991.\nSo long as pricing power doesn’t threaten market share, inflation will continue to creep higher. But history has shown this cannot last long. Price competition will re-emerge in the second half of the year and more vigorously in 2022 and that should soften inflation pressures. Here’s why.\nHere’s why inflation has peaked\nFirst, as Washington transitions from fiscal stimulus to fiscal restraint, we expect to see household consumption ease accordingly.\nSecond, the enormous buildup in pent-up demand by consumers over the past year provided the economy with much forward momentum. But as demand is being satisfied, this spending drive will lose momentum.\nThird, there is little doubt the Federal Reserve is gearing up to scale back purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries. Whether it begins to taper quantitative easing at the end of this year or early next, once they do, the cost of borrowing will increase. That will slow both home sales and capital investments.\nFourth, the supply-chain bottlenecks of the first half have begun to ease. Cargo ships are being unloaded at a faster pace, especially on the West Coast. This improvement in logistics sets the stage for the price of commodities and finished goods to drift lower.\nFinally, and I say this will some reluctance, as much as we wish to declare victory over the COVID-19 virus, it would be premature to do so. The appearance of new variants (Delta, Delta plus and now Lambda) in the U.S., combined with the challenge of getting 70% to 80% of the U.S. population fully vaccinated (the figure is only 48% as of today, according to the CDC) raises the specter of another wave of infections in the fall and winter. That, too, could also take some wind out of the economy.\nOur assessment is we are near the peak in the inflation cycle and most voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee share this general sentiment. The forces that drive price competition and bring down retail prices are bound to emerge as consumers seek out more deals and as firms refocus on locking in, if not expanding, their market share.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":764,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":173965850,"gmtCreate":1626602209570,"gmtModify":1633925548470,"author":{"id":"3583811401087980","authorId":"3583811401087980","name":"DLIM","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/140bf807c414ea069de5f87b2b1509cd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583811401087980","idStr":"3583811401087980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Alternative proteins is the way forward to a more sustainable eco enviroment and healthy living","listText":"Alternative proteins is the way forward to a more sustainable eco enviroment and healthy living","text":"Alternative proteins is the way forward to a more sustainable eco enviroment and healthy living","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/173965850","repostId":"1156209584","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":739,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":859004837,"gmtCreate":1634634222069,"gmtModify":1634634222339,"author":{"id":"3583811401087980","authorId":"3583811401087980","name":"DLIM","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/140bf807c414ea069de5f87b2b1509cd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583811401087980","idStr":"3583811401087980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Alibaba is more than just Ecommerce&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;","listText":"Alibaba is more than just Ecommerce&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;","text":"Alibaba is more than just Ecommerce [强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/859004837","repostId":"1185133403","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1185133403","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1634631070,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1185133403?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-19 16:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba rose nearly 2% in premarket trading as it unveils one of China’s most advanced chips<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW盘前涨近2%，推出国内最先进芯片之一</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185133403","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Alibaba rose nearly 2% in premarket trading, and its stocks’ price in Hong Kong jumped 1.17% on Tuesday.The company unveiled a new server chip that’s based on advanced 5-nanometer technology, marking a milestone in China’s pursuit of semiconductor self-sufficiency.The newest chip is based on micro-architecture provided by the SoftBank Group Corp.-owned Arm Ltd., according to a statement Tuesday. Alibaba, which is holding its annual cloud summit in Hangzhou, said the silicon will be put to use in","content":"<p>Alibaba rose nearly 2% in premarket trading, and its stocks’ price in Hong Kong jumped 1.17% on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW盘前交易中上涨近2%，其在港股价周二上涨1.17%。</blockquote></p><p> &nbsp;<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64d09abc429be4e1672683409ffa01e3\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote> </blockquote></p><p> The company unveiled a new server chip that’s based on advanced 5-nanometer technology, marking a milestone in China’s pursuit of semiconductor self-sufficiency.&nbsp;</p><p><blockquote>该公司推出了一款基于先进5纳米技术的新型服务器芯片，标志着中国追求半导体自给自足的一个里程碑。</blockquote></p><p> The newest chip is based on micro-architecture provided by the SoftBank Group Corp.-owned Arm Ltd., according to a statement Tuesday. Alibaba, which is holding its annual cloud summit in Hangzhou, said the silicon will be put to use in its own data centers in the “near future” and will not be sold commercially, at least for now.</p><p><blockquote>根据周二的一份声明，最新的芯片基于软银集团旗下的Arm Ltd.提供的微架构。正在杭州举行年度云峰会的阿里巴巴-SW表示，这种硅将在“不久的将来”在自己的数据中心投入使用，至少目前不会进行商业销售。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba rose nearly 2% in premarket trading as it unveils one of China’s most advanced chips<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW盘前涨近2%，推出国内最先进芯片之一</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba rose nearly 2% in premarket trading as it unveils one of China’s most advanced chips<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW盘前涨近2%，推出国内最先进芯片之一</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-10-19 16:11</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Alibaba rose nearly 2% in premarket trading, and its stocks’ price in Hong Kong jumped 1.17% on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW盘前交易中上涨近2%，其在港股价周二上涨1.17%。</blockquote></p><p> &nbsp;<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64d09abc429be4e1672683409ffa01e3\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote> </blockquote></p><p> The company unveiled a new server chip that’s based on advanced 5-nanometer technology, marking a milestone in China’s pursuit of semiconductor self-sufficiency.&nbsp;</p><p><blockquote>该公司推出了一款基于先进5纳米技术的新型服务器芯片，标志着中国追求半导体自给自足的一个里程碑。</blockquote></p><p> The newest chip is based on micro-architecture provided by the SoftBank Group Corp.-owned Arm Ltd., according to a statement Tuesday. Alibaba, which is holding its annual cloud summit in Hangzhou, said the silicon will be put to use in its own data centers in the “near future” and will not be sold commercially, at least for now.</p><p><blockquote>根据周二的一份声明，最新的芯片基于软银集团旗下的Arm Ltd.提供的微架构。正在杭州举行年度云峰会的阿里巴巴-SW表示，这种硅将在“不久的将来”在自己的数据中心投入使用，至少目前不会进行商业销售。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185133403","content_text":"Alibaba rose nearly 2% in premarket trading, and its stocks’ price in Hong Kong jumped 1.17% on Tuesday.\n \nThe company unveiled a new server chip that’s based on advanced 5-nanometer technology, marking a milestone in China’s pursuit of semiconductor self-sufficiency. \nThe newest chip is based on micro-architecture provided by the SoftBank Group Corp.-owned Arm Ltd., according to a statement Tuesday. Alibaba, which is holding its annual cloud summit in Hangzhou, said the silicon will be put to use in its own data centers in the “near future” and will not be sold commercially, at least for now.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9,"09988":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2846,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":172185654,"gmtCreate":1626944473478,"gmtModify":1633769513648,"author":{"id":"3583811401087980","authorId":"3583811401087980","name":"DLIM","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/140bf807c414ea069de5f87b2b1509cd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583811401087980","idStr":"3583811401087980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Is he trying to manipulate the market?","listText":"Is he trying to manipulate the market?","text":"Is he trying to manipulate the market?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/172185654","repostId":"1153484478","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":828,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":803714846,"gmtCreate":1627463660685,"gmtModify":1633764759820,"author":{"id":"3583811401087980","authorId":"3583811401087980","name":"DLIM","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/140bf807c414ea069de5f87b2b1509cd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583811401087980","idStr":"3583811401087980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Market oversold due to fear","listText":"Market oversold due to fear","text":"Market oversold due to fear","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/803714846","repostId":"1154854343","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154854343","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1627481786,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1154854343?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-28 22:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Hot Chinese concept stocks continue to rebound<blockquote>热点中概股持续反弹</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154854343","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Hot Chinese concept stocks continue to rebound in Wednesday morning trading.Alibaba,JD.com, Pinduodu","content":"<p>Hot Chinese concept stocks continue to rebound&nbsp;in Wednesday morning trading.Alibaba,JD.com,&nbsp;Pinduoduo,Baidu,DiDi&nbsp;Global,Nio,Xpeng Motors and Li Auto&nbsp;climbed between 3% and 13%.</p><p><blockquote>周三早盘热门中概股继续反弹，阿里巴巴、京东、拼多多、百度、滴滴全球、蔚来、小鹏汽车和理想汽车涨幅在3%至13%之间。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8198eadc3c17e2d3fa3226a5348e1bef\" tg-width=\"359\" tg-height=\"603\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hot Chinese concept stocks continue to rebound<blockquote>热点中概股持续反弹</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHot Chinese concept stocks continue to rebound<blockquote>热点中概股持续反弹</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-28 22:16</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Hot Chinese concept stocks continue to rebound&nbsp;in Wednesday morning trading.Alibaba,JD.com,&nbsp;Pinduoduo,Baidu,DiDi&nbsp;Global,Nio,Xpeng Motors and Li Auto&nbsp;climbed between 3% and 13%.</p><p><blockquote>周三早盘热门中概股继续反弹，阿里巴巴、京东、拼多多、百度、滴滴全球、蔚来、小鹏汽车和理想汽车涨幅在3%至13%之间。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8198eadc3c17e2d3fa3226a5348e1bef\" tg-width=\"359\" tg-height=\"603\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)","JD":"京东","BABA":"阿里巴巴","LI":"理想汽车","PDD":"拼多多","BIDU":"百度","NTES":"网易","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","NIO":"蔚来"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154854343","content_text":"Hot Chinese concept stocks continue to rebound in Wednesday morning trading.Alibaba,JD.com, Pinduoduo,Baidu,DiDi Global,Nio,Xpeng Motors and Li Auto climbed between 3% and 13%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9,"JD":0.9,"LI":0.9,"NTES":0.9,"NIO":0.9,"XPEV":0.9,"DIDI":0.9,"PDD":0.9,"BIDU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":898,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":815140059,"gmtCreate":1630659590471,"gmtModify":1632468164081,"author":{"id":"3583811401087980","authorId":"3583811401087980","name":"DLIM","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/140bf807c414ea069de5f87b2b1509cd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583811401087980","idStr":"3583811401087980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Always remember to do your portfolio management","listText":"Always remember to do your portfolio management","text":"Always remember to do your portfolio management","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/815140059","repostId":"1115112299","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115112299","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630641559,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1115112299?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-03 11:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What Will Happen When Trillions In Stimulus Run Out In 2022?<blockquote>2022年数万亿刺激用完会发生什么？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115112299","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe US economy and stock market have benefitted from an unprecedented amount of stimulus in","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The US economy and stock market have benefitted from an unprecedented amount of stimulus in 2021.</li>  <li>With expanded unemployment set to end, student loan &amp; mortgage forbearance to end, and a possible corporate tax rate hike on the horizon, it's possible 2022 earnings estimates for stocks are simply too high.</li>  <li>In light of this, the broad stock market faces an unattractive risk-reward proposition.</li>  <li>I break down the possibilities and game plan with expert value/dividend investor Sam Kovacs.</li> </ul> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2021年，美国经济和股市受益于前所未有的刺激措施。</li><li>随着失业扩大即将结束，学生贷款和抵押贷款忍耐即将结束，以及企业税率可能上调，2022年股市盈利预期可能太高了。</li><li>有鉴于此，整个股市面临着一个没有吸引力的风险回报命题。</li><li>我与专家价值/股息投资者萨姆·科瓦奇一起分析了可能性和游戏计划。</li></ul><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>The United States government has turned to an unprecedented amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus to help the economy through the COVID-19 pandemic. Notable examples include multiple rounds of stimulus checks, the student loan pause, mortgage forbearance/eviction moratorium, PPP, and enhanced unemployment benefits. So far, this effort seems to have been successful, although critics point out that it has resulted in significant increases in inflation. However, the political and economic reality is that the US can't run $3 trillion deficits forever, at least without everyone implicitly paying for it via higher consumer prices compared to their earnings.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>美国政府已经转向前所未有的财政和货币刺激措施，以帮助经济度过新冠肺炎疫情。值得注意的例子包括多轮刺激检查、学生贷款暂停、抵押贷款延期/驱逐暂停、PPP和提高失业福利。到目前为止，这一努力似乎是成功的，尽管批评者指出，这导致了通货膨胀的显著上升。然而，政治和经济现实是，美国不可能永远保持3万亿美元的赤字，至少在每个人都没有通过高于其收入的消费者价格来隐性支付赤字的情况下。</blockquote></p><p> The weight of theevidence suggeststhat prices are rising faster than wages. In turn, the government has stepped in to fill this gap with stimulus payments, but the trillion-dollar question is what happens when the economy has to run on its own productivity–rather than on temporary transfer payments. For 2021, thanks to pent-up demand and stimulus, S&amp;P 500 components are expected to smash the record for the highest amount ever earned in a year (somewhere between $200 and $205 per share for 2021, vs. the previous record of $163 in 2019). Wall Street analysts additionally expect the S&amp;P 500 to earn~$215 per share in 2022, which would be yet another record. When you pull numbers forproductivity and economic output, the picture isn't as great, which helps explain why there are so many shortages of goods and services right now. If you feel that the change in nominal economic output is more indicative of what corporations can earn over the medium term (taking away the impact of consumers spending temporary transfer payments), you get an earnings number for the S&amp;P 500 closer to $180, which is about 15 percent lower than Wall Street is currently expecting.</p><p><blockquote>大量证据表明，物价上涨速度快于工资上涨速度。反过来，政府已经介入，通过刺激支付来填补这一缺口，但万亿美元的问题是，当经济不得不依靠自身生产力而不是临时转移支付来运行时会发生什么。2021年，由于被压抑的需求和刺激措施，标普500组件预计将打破一年内最高收入记录（2021年每股收入在200美元至205美元之间，而2019年的纪录为163美元）。此外，华尔街分析师预计标普500 2022年每股收益约为215美元，这将再创历史新高。当你计算生产率和经济产出的数字时，情况就不那么好了，这有助于解释为什么现在商品和服务如此短缺。如果你认为名义经济产出的变化更能反映企业在中期内的收入（剔除消费者支出临时转移支付的影响），你会得到标普500的收入数字接近180美元，这比华尔街目前的预期低约15%。</blockquote></p><p> Putting further pressure on earnings is the potential corporate tax hike from 21 percent to 25 percent, which will decrease S&amp;P 500 earnings by 5 percent, all else being equal. Political betting markets show that this has a roughly50/50 chance of becoming lawat the moment. With many investors making easy money piling into low-conviction, high momentum names, the consequences of unwinding stimulus could be a shock to their portfolio balances. Helping me make sense of the stimulus unwind is fellow<i>Seeking Alpha</i>authorSam Kovacs.Although living halfway across the world from me here in suburban Texas, Sam and I think eerily alike about the markets, gravitating to high-quality stocks with solid earnings and dividends.</p><p><blockquote>给盈利带来进一步压力的是潜在的公司税从21%提高到25%，在其他条件相同的情况下，这将使标普500的盈利减少5%。政治博彩市场显示，这有大约50/50的机会成为lawat时刻。随着许多轻松赚钱的投资者涌入低信心、高势头的股票，取消刺激措施的后果可能会对他们的投资组合平衡造成冲击。帮助我理解刺激放松是同伴<i>寻求阿尔法</i>作者萨姆·科瓦奇。尽管住在德克萨斯州郊区，与我相隔半个地球，但我和萨姆对市场的看法却出奇地相似，都被具有稳定收益和股息的优质股票所吸引。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>Within the first couple of months of the Fed’s reaction to the pandemic, I was concerned that they would be placing themselves between a rock and a hard place. I would not have wanted to be in Powell’s shoes, but then again there aren’t many government jobs I’d consider taking. Striking a balance between pulling stimulus too early and risking runaway inflation is no easy task. The government has looked to prior crashes and decided that risking inflation was the way to go.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆-</i>在美联储对疫情做出反应的头几个月里，我担心他们会进退两难。我不想站在鲍威尔的立场上，但话说回来，我会考虑接受的政府工作并不多。在过早取消刺激措施和通胀失控风险之间取得平衡绝非易事。政府回顾了之前的崩盘，并决定冒通胀风险是正确的选择。</blockquote></p><p> Keep telling the people that it is “transitory” and surely it will be. But anyone who has taken Econ 101 knows that inflation feeds on itself. At first, companies are reactionary, but then they become proactive in pricing measures. Here are a few snippets.</p><p><blockquote>不断告诉人们这是“暂时的”，而且肯定会是。但是任何学过经济学101的人都知道，通货膨胀是自我驱动的。起初，公司是反动的，但后来它们在定价措施上变得积极主动。这里有几个片段。</blockquote></p><p> From Hormel's (HRL) latestcall:</p><p><blockquote>来自荷美尔(HRL)的最新电话：</blockquote></p><p> <i>We have taken numerous pricing actions across the portfolio to protect profitability. The actions will take place early in the third quarter with additional pricing actions likely.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>我们在整个投资组合中采取了大量定价行动来保护盈利能力。这些行动将在第三季度初进行，并可能采取额外的定价行动。</i></blockquote></p><p> From Conagra's (CAG) latestcall:</p><p><blockquote>来自康尼格拉(CAG)的最新电话：</blockquote></p><p> <i>And the short answer is yes. In fact, we began implementing pricing actions on some of our products in the quarter related to the initial inflation we experienced. The very early read on the data from those actions is that our elasticities look good so far. And we have more pricing coming.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>简短的回答是肯定的。事实上，我们在本季度开始对一些产品实施与我们经历的最初通货膨胀相关的定价行动。对这些行动数据的早期解读是，到目前为止，我们的弹性看起来不错。我们还将推出更多定价。</i></blockquote></p><p> There will be no shortage of inflation in food in upcoming quarters. Oil price still has a couple of quarters of weak comparables which continue to contribute to higher headline inflation rates.</p><p><blockquote>未来几个季度不会出现食品通胀。油价仍有几个季度的疲软可比数据，这继续导致整体通胀率上升。</blockquote></p><p> Food &amp; transportation, along with housing are the major costs of US households. For1/6thof adults, you can throw in student loans as well. US consumers have been able to absorb the inflation on the back of various stimulus efforts.</p><p><blockquote>食品、交通以及住房是美国家庭的主要开支。对于1/6的成年人，你也可以提供学生贷款。在各种刺激措施的支持下，美国消费者已经能够吸收通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But the stimulus can’t last forever. Part of it is being extended as Delta is slowing (not killing) the recovery. What happens when the different forms of stimulus fade? That’s what we’re going to look at in the rest of the article.</p><p><blockquote>但刺激不可能永远持续下去。由于达美航空正在减缓（而不是扼杀）复苏，其中一部分正在延长。当不同形式的刺激消退时会发生什么？这就是我们将在本文的其余部分中讨论的内容。</blockquote></p><p> The Eviction/Foreclosure Moratorium</p><p><blockquote>暂停驱逐/取消抵押品赎回权</blockquote></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>Foreclosures have started again, and the Supreme Court recentlystruck downthe eviction moratorium imposed by the CDC. By my last count, there are about1.5 million householdswho are in forbearance programs at the moment (i.e. not paying their mortgages), against somewhere in the ballpark of 50 million mortgages in the US. Foreclosure is a process, not an event, and the most common outcome is that people get behind on their payments, try to work with the bank for 6-12 months, and then eventually sell, collect their equity, and move somewhere cheaper. The problem in 2008 was that borrowers had negative equity on their mortgages, so it short-circuited this process. This isn't the case now–I don't see a systematic risk to the economy from foreclosures. Around 6-7 million houses in the US are bought and sold in a typical year, meaning in a vacuum, most people who are behind could sell over a 6-12 month period, and it would be a win-win for those struggling with the shortage of houses to buy and those who can't make payments on the ones they own. The Fed taper might complicate this. If mortgage rates go back up to the ~4 percent they've averaged over the last 10 years at the same time people are unloading houses they've been in forbearance on, prices are going to come down more.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>止赎又开始了，最高法院最近推翻了疾病预防控制中心实施的驱逐禁令。根据我的最新统计，目前约有150万家庭处于延期计划中（即不支付抵押贷款），而美国的抵押贷款数量约为5000万。止赎是一个过程，而不是一个事件，最常见的结果是人们拖欠付款，试图与银行合作6-12个月，然后最终出售，收集他们的股权，并搬到更便宜的地方。2008年的问题是借款人的抵押贷款为负资产，因此它缩短了这一过程。现在的情况并非如此——我不认为取消抵押品赎回权会给经济带来系统性风险。在美国，一年大约有600-700万套房屋被买卖，这意味着在真空中，大多数落后的人可以在6-12个月的时间内出售，这对于那些为购买房屋短缺而苦苦挣扎的人和那些无法支付所拥有房屋的人来说是双赢的。美联储缩减规模可能会使情况变得复杂。如果抵押贷款利率回到过去10年的平均4%左右，同时人们正在抛售他们一直忍住的房子，价格将会进一步下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Evictions are messier–there are millions of people not paying rent and living off the extra money. When they have to start paying rent again somewhere else, their household budgets are going to dramatically shrink. Roughly 2-3 percent of American households are significantly behind on rent, so I would expect a lot of both formal and informal (cash for keys) evictions. This has to negatively affect consumer spending, and earnings estimates that ignore the unwind of stimulus are not properly accounting for it.</p><p><blockquote>驱逐更加混乱——有数百万人不付房租，靠额外的钱生活。当他们不得不在其他地方重新开始支付房租时，他们的家庭预算将会大幅缩水。大约2-3%的美国家庭严重拖欠租金，所以我预计会有很多正式和非正式的（现金换钥匙）驱逐。这必然会对消费者支出产生负面影响，而忽视刺激措施放松的盈利预测也没有正确考虑到这一点。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>The risk here is not so much on the real estate market, as Logan correctly summarized, but rather the knock-on effects on consumption.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆-</i>正如洛根正确总结的那样，这里的风险与其说是房地产市场，不如说是对消费的连锁反应。</blockquote></p><p> The end of the federal eviction moratorium is a boon for apartment REITs which can resume collecting rent. However, that doesn’t mean investors should pile into residential REITs. have gone from deeply undervalued back to historically overvalued, as the below MAD Chart for Essex Property (ESS) shows. We previously suggested investors sell ESS.</p><p><blockquote>联邦驱逐禁令的结束对可以恢复收取租金的公寓房地产投资信托基金来说是一个福音。然而，这并不意味着投资者应该涌入住宅房地产投资信托基金。正如下面埃塞克斯地产(ESS)的MAD图表所示，已经从严重低估回到历史高估。我们之前建议投资者出售ESS。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc5c631a8b25f6a52735e699fbc69b29\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"293\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source:Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> Looking at the other residential REITs on the block, the same picture emerges. AvalonBay Communities (AVB) also is historically overvalued.</p><p><blockquote>看看该街区的其他住宅房地产投资信托基金，也会出现同样的情况。AvalonBay Communities(AVB)历来也被高估。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e17980a72bfba653b02553382a920419\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"315\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> None seem more overvalued relative to their historical normal range of prices than Camden Property Trust (CPT) which could easily come down by 1/3rdon a change in sentiment.</p><p><blockquote>相对于其历史正常价格范围，似乎没有比卡姆登房地产信托(CPT)更高估的了，如果情绪发生变化，卡姆登房地产信托(CPT)很容易下跌1/3。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/136a7707c3add17401e4dd4047278e14\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"303\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> I believe that this trade has passed. We bought ESS about a year ago, and have been selling it throughout the past few months.</p><p><blockquote>我相信这笔交易已经过去了。我们大约一年前购买了ESS，并在过去几个月里一直在出售它。</blockquote></p><p> Taking profits now in these industries makes sense: “buy the rumor/sell the news”.</p><p><blockquote>现在在这些行业获利了结是有道理的：“买入谣言/卖出消息”。</blockquote></p><p> If we’re looking ahead, we’re seeing one lever which will pressure consumption for a certain part of the population.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们展望未来，我们会看到一个杠杆将给某一部分人口的消费带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Student Loan Forbearance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>学生贷款延期</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>The Biden Administration extended the student loan pause until January 31, 2022. 1 in 6 adults in the US has student loans, with an average balance of ~$40,000. Most borrowers are under 30, a group that spends a higher percentage of their income than, say a 50-year old saving for retirement. Hit 1 in 6 American adults with an average$400 per month payment, paid with mostly post-tax dollars, and that's like stimulus in reverse. Anecdotally, almost no one I know who has student loans is currently paying them. The extra money they're getting from not paying loans is generally either being spent on consumption, invested in cryptocurrency, or in meme stocks like GameStop (GME). This is a decent threat to consumer spending, and there isn't an easy way out. The left wing of the Democratic Party in the US wants to cancel most or all student loans, but the main problem with this is that much of the debt is held by middle and upper-middle-class professionals, which would create a moral hazard as well as redistribute wealth from people lower on the socioeconomic ladder (for example, people who work in trades and pay their income taxes) to those of higher social class (for example, indebted white-collar college graduates). We're talking$1.7+ trillion in US student loansthat are generally not being serviced by those who owe it for this 21 month period. When those kick in again, consumer spending is not going to be higher than it is now. 2022 earnings estimates are mostly blind to this fact.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>拜登政府将学生贷款暂停期限延长至2022年1月31日。美国六分之一的成年人拥有学生贷款，平均余额约为4万美元。大多数借款人年龄在30岁以下，这个群体的支出占其收入的比例高于50岁的退休储蓄。六分之一的美国成年人平均每月支付400美元，大部分是税后美元，这就像是反向刺激。有趣的是，我认识的有学生贷款的人目前几乎没有人在偿还贷款。他们因不偿还贷款而获得的额外资金通常要么用于消费、投资加密货币，要么投资于游戏驿站(GME)等模因股票。这对消费者支出构成了相当大的威胁，而且没有简单的解决办法。美国民主党左翼希望取消大部分或全部学生贷款，但这样做的主要问题是，大部分债务由中产阶级和中上阶层的专业人士持有，这将造成道德风险，并将财富从社会经济阶梯较低的人（例如，从事贸易并缴纳所得税的人）重新分配到较高的社会阶层（例如，负债累累的白领大学毕业生）。我们谈论的是1.7多万亿美元的美国学生贷款，这些贷款在这21个月内通常没有被那些欠债的人偿还。当这些因素再次发挥作用时，消费者支出不会比现在高。2022年的盈利预测大多对这一事实视而不见。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>When Logan and I initially discussed this article, this seemed to be the easiest form of stimulus for the government to keep giving. Since most of the loans are federal, a pause on the payments doesn’t explicitly hurt anyone enough to complain. And since the handouts are not direct, critics aren’t as vocal as they are with stimulus checks. The money which has been put into various investments, be it stock or crypto, will come out when they have to start servicing debt again. Whether this has enough of an impact to move markets is questionable, but the retail meme stocks could finally have their day of reckoning as a large portion of the population has to resume payments. The aftermath of removing the pause on debt servicing will be harsh for an important part of the population. At least you’ll still be able to watch a movie at AMC Theater (AMC).</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆-</i>当洛根和我最初讨论这篇文章时，这似乎是政府继续给予的最容易的刺激形式。由于大多数贷款都是联邦贷款，暂停付款不会对任何人造成足够的伤害来抱怨。由于施舍不是直接的，批评者不像对刺激支票那样直言不讳。投入各种投资的资金，无论是股票还是加密货币，将在他们不得不再次开始偿还债务时流出。这是否会产生足够的影响来推动市场值得怀疑，但随着很大一部分人必须恢复支付，零售模因股票最终可能会迎来清算日。取消暂停偿债的后果对很大一部分人口来说将是严酷的。至少您仍然可以在AMC剧院(AMC)观看电影。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Enhanced Unemployment &amp; Stimulus Checks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>加强失业和刺激检查</b></blockquote></p><p> Logan- Enhanced unemployment runs out on September 6, and there are 11 million people who won't be getting it after that week. This is $3.3 billion per week that the Federal government is dripping out to unemployed persons, which in turn is a lot less than it was 12 months ago. When it's gone, it's yet another piece of the puzzle that will rein in consumer spending. Stimulus checks were another source of income for many Americans over the last 18 months. A family of 4 making the median income would have seen a stimulus check in March of $5,600, in addition to the prior payments under the Trump Administration. These aren't going to be going out anymore, and for middle-income Americans, this means that they won't be able to spend as much money as they have before. The expanded child tax credit may make up for this and is probably a more efficient means of getting money out, but it expires also in its current form in December.</p><p><blockquote>洛根——增强失业将于9月6日到期，在那一周之后，有1100万人将无法领取失业救济金。联邦政府每周向失业者发放33亿美元，这比12个月前要少得多。当它消失时，它将成为抑制消费者支出的又一块拼图。在过去的18个月里，刺激支票是许多美国人的另一个收入来源。除了特朗普政府之前的付款外，一个收入中位数的4口之家在3月份还会看到5600美元的刺激支票。这些不会再出去了，对于中等收入的美国人来说，这意味着他们将无法像以前那样花那么多钱。扩大的儿童税收抵免可能会弥补这一点，并且可能是一种更有效的提款方式，但目前的形式也将于12月到期。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>Enhanced Unemployment is running out in a few days, we’re likely to see many of the 8 million Americans who are looking for a job finally find one amongthe 10 million job openings. As of the time of writing, job data is to be posted in the next few hours. Strong job numbers could kick off a Fed taper sooner than expected.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆-</i>失业率的上升将在几天内消失，我们可能会看到800万正在找工作的美国人中的许多人最终在1000万个职位空缺中找到一个。截至撰写本文时，工作数据将在未来几个小时内发布。强劲的就业数据可能会比预期更早启动美联储缩减规模。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion: What Is Yet to Come?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论：接下来会发生什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>High profile earnings misses from the likes of Amazon (AMZN), Zoom Video (ZM), and Peloton (PTON) suggest that at least on a micro level, analysts assumed that good times would last forever for companies that benefitted from temporary changes resulting from the pandemic. Whether this is true on a macro level is a strong possibility, and depending on how the rest of earnings results come in for the rest of the year, it may end up becoming a reality. While it isn't set in stone that the market should necessarily go down significantly in price because of this, it's hard to deny that the risk-reward tradeoff for the market has deteriorated over the past 6-12 months. Now is a good time to dial back risk, if at all possible. A good defense, in both of our views, is to invest in high-quality companies rather than popular high-momentum stocks with middling fundamentals, and to take a long-term perspective.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>亚马逊(AMZN)、Zoom Video(ZM)和Peloton(PTON)等公司的盈利大幅下滑表明，至少在微观层面上，分析师认为，对于那些受益于暂时变化的公司来说，美好时光将永远持续下去。大流行。从宏观层面来看，这是否属实的可能性很大，而且取决于今年剩余时间的盈利结果，它最终可能会成为现实。虽然市场价格并不一定会因此大幅下跌，但很难否认市场的风险回报权衡在过去6-12个月中已经恶化。如果可能的话，现在是降低风险的好时机。在我们看来，一个好的防御是投资于优质公司，而不是基本面中等的热门高动能股票，并从长远角度来看。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>The inflation train has left the station. Powell believes it is transitory, I believe that it might be partially transitory, but the abundance of fiscal stimulus has kicked up a cycle of inflation which will be above 2% for quite some time. The Covid delta variant has softened some economic indicators like eating out in restaurants or travel, but as the country’s case count is already peaking, the economy is set to continue heating up.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆-</i>充气列车已经离开车站了。鲍威尔认为这是暂时的，我认为这可能是部分暂时的，但大量的财政刺激已经启动了通胀周期，通胀将在相当长的一段时间内保持在2%以上。新冠疫情德尔塔变异毒株削弱了外出就餐或旅行等一些经济指标，但随着该国病例数已经达到峰值，经济将继续升温。</blockquote></p><p> This will lead to a taper. Higher rates, or even the expectation of higher rates, will lead to a change in discount rates, which is a fancy way to say future profits are worthless.</p><p><blockquote>这将导致锥度。更高的利率，甚至更高利率的预期，都会导致贴现率的变化，这是一种说未来利润一文不值的奇特方式。</blockquote></p><p> Investors want to take a hard look at their portfolios and ask whether they have positions which are overvalued beyond reason?</p><p><blockquote>投资者希望仔细审视他们的投资组合，并询问他们是否拥有被过度高估的头寸？</blockquote></p><p> No need to look at obscure parts of the market, this is playing out in the S&amp;P 500 (SPY).</p><p><blockquote>无需关注市场中不起眼的部分，这正在标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）上演。</blockquote></p><p> For instance, I cannot fathom how a stock like Intuit (INTU) currently trades at 16x sales? Even on its lofty usual measure of 8-9x sales, this is unusually high. Compare it to the stock's historical dividend, and the reading is off the wall.</p><p><blockquote>例如，我无法理解像Intuit(INTU)这样的股票目前的交易价格是销售额的16倍？即使按照通常8-9倍的销售额来衡量，这也是异常高的。将其与该股票的历史股息进行比较，读数是惊人的。</blockquote></p><p> Investors want to focus on companies with strong earnings power, large-scale operations, which are trading at relatively cheap valuations.</p><p><blockquote>投资者希望关注盈利能力强、经营规模大、估值相对便宜的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Among those that come to mind in the top 100 stocks are Amgen (AMGN) which currently yields over 3%.</p><p><blockquote>前100名股票中我想到的是安进(AMGN)，该公司目前的收益率超过3%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd53f68bc9f02f82e05458098625b0a7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"297\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> Philip Morris International (PM), Broadcom (AVGO), and Morgan Stanley (MS.PK) are also undervalued relative to their historical valuations.</p><p><blockquote>菲利普莫里斯国际（PM）、博通（AVGO）和摩根士丹利（MS.PK）相对于其历史估值也被低估。</blockquote></p><p> In such an environment, focus on quality is a must. Focus on value is a close second. We’re looking to buy the highest quality assets with growth prospects at a decent price. We’re very cautious that stimulus unwinding will hit consumption which will hit earning results. Big misses from overvalued names spells trouble. The responsible thing to do is to scale out of stocks when they become overvalued.</p><p><blockquote>在这样的环境下，注重质量是必须的。关注价值紧随其后。我们希望以合理的价格购买具有增长前景的最优质资产。我们非常谨慎地认为，刺激措施的取消将打击消费，从而影响盈利结果。估值过高的名字的重大失误会带来麻烦。负责任的做法是在股票估值过高时退出。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Will Happen When Trillions In Stimulus Run Out In 2022?<blockquote>2022年数万亿刺激用完会发生什么？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Will Happen When Trillions In Stimulus Run Out In 2022?<blockquote>2022年数万亿刺激用完会发生什么？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-03 11:59</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The US economy and stock market have benefitted from an unprecedented amount of stimulus in 2021.</li>  <li>With expanded unemployment set to end, student loan &amp; mortgage forbearance to end, and a possible corporate tax rate hike on the horizon, it's possible 2022 earnings estimates for stocks are simply too high.</li>  <li>In light of this, the broad stock market faces an unattractive risk-reward proposition.</li>  <li>I break down the possibilities and game plan with expert value/dividend investor Sam Kovacs.</li> </ul> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2021年，美国经济和股市受益于前所未有的刺激措施。</li><li>随着失业扩大即将结束，学生贷款和抵押贷款忍耐即将结束，以及企业税率可能上调，2022年股市盈利预期可能太高了。</li><li>有鉴于此，整个股市面临着一个没有吸引力的风险回报命题。</li><li>我与专家价值/股息投资者萨姆·科瓦奇一起分析了可能性和游戏计划。</li></ul><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>The United States government has turned to an unprecedented amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus to help the economy through the COVID-19 pandemic. Notable examples include multiple rounds of stimulus checks, the student loan pause, mortgage forbearance/eviction moratorium, PPP, and enhanced unemployment benefits. So far, this effort seems to have been successful, although critics point out that it has resulted in significant increases in inflation. However, the political and economic reality is that the US can't run $3 trillion deficits forever, at least without everyone implicitly paying for it via higher consumer prices compared to their earnings.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>美国政府已经转向前所未有的财政和货币刺激措施，以帮助经济度过新冠肺炎疫情。值得注意的例子包括多轮刺激检查、学生贷款暂停、抵押贷款延期/驱逐暂停、PPP和提高失业福利。到目前为止，这一努力似乎是成功的，尽管批评者指出，这导致了通货膨胀的显著上升。然而，政治和经济现实是，美国不可能永远保持3万亿美元的赤字，至少在每个人都没有通过高于其收入的消费者价格来隐性支付赤字的情况下。</blockquote></p><p> The weight of theevidence suggeststhat prices are rising faster than wages. In turn, the government has stepped in to fill this gap with stimulus payments, but the trillion-dollar question is what happens when the economy has to run on its own productivity–rather than on temporary transfer payments. For 2021, thanks to pent-up demand and stimulus, S&amp;P 500 components are expected to smash the record for the highest amount ever earned in a year (somewhere between $200 and $205 per share for 2021, vs. the previous record of $163 in 2019). Wall Street analysts additionally expect the S&amp;P 500 to earn~$215 per share in 2022, which would be yet another record. When you pull numbers forproductivity and economic output, the picture isn't as great, which helps explain why there are so many shortages of goods and services right now. If you feel that the change in nominal economic output is more indicative of what corporations can earn over the medium term (taking away the impact of consumers spending temporary transfer payments), you get an earnings number for the S&amp;P 500 closer to $180, which is about 15 percent lower than Wall Street is currently expecting.</p><p><blockquote>大量证据表明，物价上涨速度快于工资上涨速度。反过来，政府已经介入，通过刺激支付来填补这一缺口，但万亿美元的问题是，当经济不得不依靠自身生产力而不是临时转移支付来运行时会发生什么。2021年，由于被压抑的需求和刺激措施，标普500组件预计将打破一年内最高收入记录（2021年每股收入在200美元至205美元之间，而2019年的纪录为163美元）。此外，华尔街分析师预计标普500 2022年每股收益约为215美元，这将再创历史新高。当你计算生产率和经济产出的数字时，情况就不那么好了，这有助于解释为什么现在商品和服务如此短缺。如果你认为名义经济产出的变化更能反映企业在中期内的收入（剔除消费者支出临时转移支付的影响），你会得到标普500的收入数字接近180美元，这比华尔街目前的预期低约15%。</blockquote></p><p> Putting further pressure on earnings is the potential corporate tax hike from 21 percent to 25 percent, which will decrease S&amp;P 500 earnings by 5 percent, all else being equal. Political betting markets show that this has a roughly50/50 chance of becoming lawat the moment. With many investors making easy money piling into low-conviction, high momentum names, the consequences of unwinding stimulus could be a shock to their portfolio balances. Helping me make sense of the stimulus unwind is fellow<i>Seeking Alpha</i>authorSam Kovacs.Although living halfway across the world from me here in suburban Texas, Sam and I think eerily alike about the markets, gravitating to high-quality stocks with solid earnings and dividends.</p><p><blockquote>给盈利带来进一步压力的是潜在的公司税从21%提高到25%，在其他条件相同的情况下，这将使标普500的盈利减少5%。政治博彩市场显示，这有大约50/50的机会成为lawat时刻。随着许多轻松赚钱的投资者涌入低信心、高势头的股票，取消刺激措施的后果可能会对他们的投资组合平衡造成冲击。帮助我理解刺激放松是同伴<i>寻求阿尔法</i>作者萨姆·科瓦奇。尽管住在德克萨斯州郊区，与我相隔半个地球，但我和萨姆对市场的看法却出奇地相似，都被具有稳定收益和股息的优质股票所吸引。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>Within the first couple of months of the Fed’s reaction to the pandemic, I was concerned that they would be placing themselves between a rock and a hard place. I would not have wanted to be in Powell’s shoes, but then again there aren’t many government jobs I’d consider taking. Striking a balance between pulling stimulus too early and risking runaway inflation is no easy task. The government has looked to prior crashes and decided that risking inflation was the way to go.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆-</i>在美联储对疫情做出反应的头几个月里，我担心他们会进退两难。我不想站在鲍威尔的立场上，但话说回来，我会考虑接受的政府工作并不多。在过早取消刺激措施和通胀失控风险之间取得平衡绝非易事。政府回顾了之前的崩盘，并决定冒通胀风险是正确的选择。</blockquote></p><p> Keep telling the people that it is “transitory” and surely it will be. But anyone who has taken Econ 101 knows that inflation feeds on itself. At first, companies are reactionary, but then they become proactive in pricing measures. Here are a few snippets.</p><p><blockquote>不断告诉人们这是“暂时的”，而且肯定会是。但是任何学过经济学101的人都知道，通货膨胀是自我驱动的。起初，公司是反动的，但后来它们在定价措施上变得积极主动。这里有几个片段。</blockquote></p><p> From Hormel's (HRL) latestcall:</p><p><blockquote>来自荷美尔(HRL)的最新电话：</blockquote></p><p> <i>We have taken numerous pricing actions across the portfolio to protect profitability. The actions will take place early in the third quarter with additional pricing actions likely.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>我们在整个投资组合中采取了大量定价行动来保护盈利能力。这些行动将在第三季度初进行，并可能采取额外的定价行动。</i></blockquote></p><p> From Conagra's (CAG) latestcall:</p><p><blockquote>来自康尼格拉(CAG)的最新电话：</blockquote></p><p> <i>And the short answer is yes. In fact, we began implementing pricing actions on some of our products in the quarter related to the initial inflation we experienced. The very early read on the data from those actions is that our elasticities look good so far. And we have more pricing coming.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>简短的回答是肯定的。事实上，我们在本季度开始对一些产品实施与我们经历的最初通货膨胀相关的定价行动。对这些行动数据的早期解读是，到目前为止，我们的弹性看起来不错。我们还将推出更多定价。</i></blockquote></p><p> There will be no shortage of inflation in food in upcoming quarters. Oil price still has a couple of quarters of weak comparables which continue to contribute to higher headline inflation rates.</p><p><blockquote>未来几个季度不会出现食品通胀。油价仍有几个季度的疲软可比数据，这继续导致整体通胀率上升。</blockquote></p><p> Food &amp; transportation, along with housing are the major costs of US households. For1/6thof adults, you can throw in student loans as well. US consumers have been able to absorb the inflation on the back of various stimulus efforts.</p><p><blockquote>食品、交通以及住房是美国家庭的主要开支。对于1/6的成年人，你也可以提供学生贷款。在各种刺激措施的支持下，美国消费者已经能够吸收通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But the stimulus can’t last forever. Part of it is being extended as Delta is slowing (not killing) the recovery. What happens when the different forms of stimulus fade? That’s what we’re going to look at in the rest of the article.</p><p><blockquote>但刺激不可能永远持续下去。由于达美航空正在减缓（而不是扼杀）复苏，其中一部分正在延长。当不同形式的刺激消退时会发生什么？这就是我们将在本文的其余部分中讨论的内容。</blockquote></p><p> The Eviction/Foreclosure Moratorium</p><p><blockquote>暂停驱逐/取消抵押品赎回权</blockquote></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>Foreclosures have started again, and the Supreme Court recentlystruck downthe eviction moratorium imposed by the CDC. By my last count, there are about1.5 million householdswho are in forbearance programs at the moment (i.e. not paying their mortgages), against somewhere in the ballpark of 50 million mortgages in the US. Foreclosure is a process, not an event, and the most common outcome is that people get behind on their payments, try to work with the bank for 6-12 months, and then eventually sell, collect their equity, and move somewhere cheaper. The problem in 2008 was that borrowers had negative equity on their mortgages, so it short-circuited this process. This isn't the case now–I don't see a systematic risk to the economy from foreclosures. Around 6-7 million houses in the US are bought and sold in a typical year, meaning in a vacuum, most people who are behind could sell over a 6-12 month period, and it would be a win-win for those struggling with the shortage of houses to buy and those who can't make payments on the ones they own. The Fed taper might complicate this. If mortgage rates go back up to the ~4 percent they've averaged over the last 10 years at the same time people are unloading houses they've been in forbearance on, prices are going to come down more.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>止赎又开始了，最高法院最近推翻了疾病预防控制中心实施的驱逐禁令。根据我的最新统计，目前约有150万家庭处于延期计划中（即不支付抵押贷款），而美国的抵押贷款数量约为5000万。止赎是一个过程，而不是一个事件，最常见的结果是人们拖欠付款，试图与银行合作6-12个月，然后最终出售，收集他们的股权，并搬到更便宜的地方。2008年的问题是借款人的抵押贷款为负资产，因此它缩短了这一过程。现在的情况并非如此——我不认为取消抵押品赎回权会给经济带来系统性风险。在美国，一年大约有600-700万套房屋被买卖，这意味着在真空中，大多数落后的人可以在6-12个月的时间内出售，这对于那些为购买房屋短缺而苦苦挣扎的人和那些无法支付所拥有房屋的人来说是双赢的。美联储缩减规模可能会使情况变得复杂。如果抵押贷款利率回到过去10年的平均4%左右，同时人们正在抛售他们一直忍住的房子，价格将会进一步下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Evictions are messier–there are millions of people not paying rent and living off the extra money. When they have to start paying rent again somewhere else, their household budgets are going to dramatically shrink. Roughly 2-3 percent of American households are significantly behind on rent, so I would expect a lot of both formal and informal (cash for keys) evictions. This has to negatively affect consumer spending, and earnings estimates that ignore the unwind of stimulus are not properly accounting for it.</p><p><blockquote>驱逐更加混乱——有数百万人不付房租，靠额外的钱生活。当他们不得不在其他地方重新开始支付房租时，他们的家庭预算将会大幅缩水。大约2-3%的美国家庭严重拖欠租金，所以我预计会有很多正式和非正式的（现金换钥匙）驱逐。这必然会对消费者支出产生负面影响，而忽视刺激措施放松的盈利预测也没有正确考虑到这一点。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>The risk here is not so much on the real estate market, as Logan correctly summarized, but rather the knock-on effects on consumption.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆-</i>正如洛根正确总结的那样，这里的风险与其说是房地产市场，不如说是对消费的连锁反应。</blockquote></p><p> The end of the federal eviction moratorium is a boon for apartment REITs which can resume collecting rent. However, that doesn’t mean investors should pile into residential REITs. have gone from deeply undervalued back to historically overvalued, as the below MAD Chart for Essex Property (ESS) shows. We previously suggested investors sell ESS.</p><p><blockquote>联邦驱逐禁令的结束对可以恢复收取租金的公寓房地产投资信托基金来说是一个福音。然而，这并不意味着投资者应该涌入住宅房地产投资信托基金。正如下面埃塞克斯地产(ESS)的MAD图表所示，已经从严重低估回到历史高估。我们之前建议投资者出售ESS。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc5c631a8b25f6a52735e699fbc69b29\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"293\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source:Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> Looking at the other residential REITs on the block, the same picture emerges. AvalonBay Communities (AVB) also is historically overvalued.</p><p><blockquote>看看该街区的其他住宅房地产投资信托基金，也会出现同样的情况。AvalonBay Communities(AVB)历来也被高估。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e17980a72bfba653b02553382a920419\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"315\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> None seem more overvalued relative to their historical normal range of prices than Camden Property Trust (CPT) which could easily come down by 1/3rdon a change in sentiment.</p><p><blockquote>相对于其历史正常价格范围，似乎没有比卡姆登房地产信托(CPT)更高估的了，如果情绪发生变化，卡姆登房地产信托(CPT)很容易下跌1/3。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/136a7707c3add17401e4dd4047278e14\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"303\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> I believe that this trade has passed. We bought ESS about a year ago, and have been selling it throughout the past few months.</p><p><blockquote>我相信这笔交易已经过去了。我们大约一年前购买了ESS，并在过去几个月里一直在出售它。</blockquote></p><p> Taking profits now in these industries makes sense: “buy the rumor/sell the news”.</p><p><blockquote>现在在这些行业获利了结是有道理的：“买入谣言/卖出消息”。</blockquote></p><p> If we’re looking ahead, we’re seeing one lever which will pressure consumption for a certain part of the population.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们展望未来，我们会看到一个杠杆将给某一部分人口的消费带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Student Loan Forbearance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>学生贷款延期</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>The Biden Administration extended the student loan pause until January 31, 2022. 1 in 6 adults in the US has student loans, with an average balance of ~$40,000. Most borrowers are under 30, a group that spends a higher percentage of their income than, say a 50-year old saving for retirement. Hit 1 in 6 American adults with an average$400 per month payment, paid with mostly post-tax dollars, and that's like stimulus in reverse. Anecdotally, almost no one I know who has student loans is currently paying them. The extra money they're getting from not paying loans is generally either being spent on consumption, invested in cryptocurrency, or in meme stocks like GameStop (GME). This is a decent threat to consumer spending, and there isn't an easy way out. The left wing of the Democratic Party in the US wants to cancel most or all student loans, but the main problem with this is that much of the debt is held by middle and upper-middle-class professionals, which would create a moral hazard as well as redistribute wealth from people lower on the socioeconomic ladder (for example, people who work in trades and pay their income taxes) to those of higher social class (for example, indebted white-collar college graduates). We're talking$1.7+ trillion in US student loansthat are generally not being serviced by those who owe it for this 21 month period. When those kick in again, consumer spending is not going to be higher than it is now. 2022 earnings estimates are mostly blind to this fact.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>拜登政府将学生贷款暂停期限延长至2022年1月31日。美国六分之一的成年人拥有学生贷款，平均余额约为4万美元。大多数借款人年龄在30岁以下，这个群体的支出占其收入的比例高于50岁的退休储蓄。六分之一的美国成年人平均每月支付400美元，大部分是税后美元，这就像是反向刺激。有趣的是，我认识的有学生贷款的人目前几乎没有人在偿还贷款。他们因不偿还贷款而获得的额外资金通常要么用于消费、投资加密货币，要么投资于游戏驿站(GME)等模因股票。这对消费者支出构成了相当大的威胁，而且没有简单的解决办法。美国民主党左翼希望取消大部分或全部学生贷款，但这样做的主要问题是，大部分债务由中产阶级和中上阶层的专业人士持有，这将造成道德风险，并将财富从社会经济阶梯较低的人（例如，从事贸易并缴纳所得税的人）重新分配到较高的社会阶层（例如，负债累累的白领大学毕业生）。我们谈论的是1.7多万亿美元的美国学生贷款，这些贷款在这21个月内通常没有被那些欠债的人偿还。当这些因素再次发挥作用时，消费者支出不会比现在高。2022年的盈利预测大多对这一事实视而不见。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>When Logan and I initially discussed this article, this seemed to be the easiest form of stimulus for the government to keep giving. Since most of the loans are federal, a pause on the payments doesn’t explicitly hurt anyone enough to complain. And since the handouts are not direct, critics aren’t as vocal as they are with stimulus checks. The money which has been put into various investments, be it stock or crypto, will come out when they have to start servicing debt again. Whether this has enough of an impact to move markets is questionable, but the retail meme stocks could finally have their day of reckoning as a large portion of the population has to resume payments. The aftermath of removing the pause on debt servicing will be harsh for an important part of the population. At least you’ll still be able to watch a movie at AMC Theater (AMC).</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆-</i>当洛根和我最初讨论这篇文章时，这似乎是政府继续给予的最容易的刺激形式。由于大多数贷款都是联邦贷款，暂停付款不会对任何人造成足够的伤害来抱怨。由于施舍不是直接的，批评者不像对刺激支票那样直言不讳。投入各种投资的资金，无论是股票还是加密货币，将在他们不得不再次开始偿还债务时流出。这是否会产生足够的影响来推动市场值得怀疑，但随着很大一部分人必须恢复支付，零售模因股票最终可能会迎来清算日。取消暂停偿债的后果对很大一部分人口来说将是严酷的。至少您仍然可以在AMC剧院(AMC)观看电影。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Enhanced Unemployment &amp; Stimulus Checks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>加强失业和刺激检查</b></blockquote></p><p> Logan- Enhanced unemployment runs out on September 6, and there are 11 million people who won't be getting it after that week. This is $3.3 billion per week that the Federal government is dripping out to unemployed persons, which in turn is a lot less than it was 12 months ago. When it's gone, it's yet another piece of the puzzle that will rein in consumer spending. Stimulus checks were another source of income for many Americans over the last 18 months. A family of 4 making the median income would have seen a stimulus check in March of $5,600, in addition to the prior payments under the Trump Administration. These aren't going to be going out anymore, and for middle-income Americans, this means that they won't be able to spend as much money as they have before. The expanded child tax credit may make up for this and is probably a more efficient means of getting money out, but it expires also in its current form in December.</p><p><blockquote>洛根——增强失业将于9月6日到期，在那一周之后，有1100万人将无法领取失业救济金。联邦政府每周向失业者发放33亿美元，这比12个月前要少得多。当它消失时，它将成为抑制消费者支出的又一块拼图。在过去的18个月里，刺激支票是许多美国人的另一个收入来源。除了特朗普政府之前的付款外，一个收入中位数的4口之家在3月份还会看到5600美元的刺激支票。这些不会再出去了，对于中等收入的美国人来说，这意味着他们将无法像以前那样花那么多钱。扩大的儿童税收抵免可能会弥补这一点，并且可能是一种更有效的提款方式，但目前的形式也将于12月到期。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>Enhanced Unemployment is running out in a few days, we’re likely to see many of the 8 million Americans who are looking for a job finally find one amongthe 10 million job openings. As of the time of writing, job data is to be posted in the next few hours. Strong job numbers could kick off a Fed taper sooner than expected.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆-</i>失业率的上升将在几天内消失，我们可能会看到800万正在找工作的美国人中的许多人最终在1000万个职位空缺中找到一个。截至撰写本文时，工作数据将在未来几个小时内发布。强劲的就业数据可能会比预期更早启动美联储缩减规模。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion: What Is Yet to Come?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论：接下来会发生什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>High profile earnings misses from the likes of Amazon (AMZN), Zoom Video (ZM), and Peloton (PTON) suggest that at least on a micro level, analysts assumed that good times would last forever for companies that benefitted from temporary changes resulting from the pandemic. Whether this is true on a macro level is a strong possibility, and depending on how the rest of earnings results come in for the rest of the year, it may end up becoming a reality. While it isn't set in stone that the market should necessarily go down significantly in price because of this, it's hard to deny that the risk-reward tradeoff for the market has deteriorated over the past 6-12 months. Now is a good time to dial back risk, if at all possible. A good defense, in both of our views, is to invest in high-quality companies rather than popular high-momentum stocks with middling fundamentals, and to take a long-term perspective.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>亚马逊(AMZN)、Zoom Video(ZM)和Peloton(PTON)等公司的盈利大幅下滑表明，至少在微观层面上，分析师认为，对于那些受益于暂时变化的公司来说，美好时光将永远持续下去。大流行。从宏观层面来看，这是否属实的可能性很大，而且取决于今年剩余时间的盈利结果，它最终可能会成为现实。虽然市场价格并不一定会因此大幅下跌，但很难否认市场的风险回报权衡在过去6-12个月中已经恶化。如果可能的话，现在是降低风险的好时机。在我们看来，一个好的防御是投资于优质公司，而不是基本面中等的热门高动能股票，并从长远角度来看。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>The inflation train has left the station. Powell believes it is transitory, I believe that it might be partially transitory, but the abundance of fiscal stimulus has kicked up a cycle of inflation which will be above 2% for quite some time. The Covid delta variant has softened some economic indicators like eating out in restaurants or travel, but as the country’s case count is already peaking, the economy is set to continue heating up.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆-</i>充气列车已经离开车站了。鲍威尔认为这是暂时的，我认为这可能是部分暂时的，但大量的财政刺激已经启动了通胀周期，通胀将在相当长的一段时间内保持在2%以上。新冠疫情德尔塔变异毒株削弱了外出就餐或旅行等一些经济指标，但随着该国病例数已经达到峰值，经济将继续升温。</blockquote></p><p> This will lead to a taper. Higher rates, or even the expectation of higher rates, will lead to a change in discount rates, which is a fancy way to say future profits are worthless.</p><p><blockquote>这将导致锥度。更高的利率，甚至更高利率的预期，都会导致贴现率的变化，这是一种说未来利润一文不值的奇特方式。</blockquote></p><p> Investors want to take a hard look at their portfolios and ask whether they have positions which are overvalued beyond reason?</p><p><blockquote>投资者希望仔细审视他们的投资组合，并询问他们是否拥有被过度高估的头寸？</blockquote></p><p> No need to look at obscure parts of the market, this is playing out in the S&amp;P 500 (SPY).</p><p><blockquote>无需关注市场中不起眼的部分，这正在标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）上演。</blockquote></p><p> For instance, I cannot fathom how a stock like Intuit (INTU) currently trades at 16x sales? Even on its lofty usual measure of 8-9x sales, this is unusually high. Compare it to the stock's historical dividend, and the reading is off the wall.</p><p><blockquote>例如，我无法理解像Intuit(INTU)这样的股票目前的交易价格是销售额的16倍？即使按照通常8-9倍的销售额来衡量，这也是异常高的。将其与该股票的历史股息进行比较，读数是惊人的。</blockquote></p><p> Investors want to focus on companies with strong earnings power, large-scale operations, which are trading at relatively cheap valuations.</p><p><blockquote>投资者希望关注盈利能力强、经营规模大、估值相对便宜的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Among those that come to mind in the top 100 stocks are Amgen (AMGN) which currently yields over 3%.</p><p><blockquote>前100名股票中我想到的是安进(AMGN)，该公司目前的收益率超过3%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd53f68bc9f02f82e05458098625b0a7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"297\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> Philip Morris International (PM), Broadcom (AVGO), and Morgan Stanley (MS.PK) are also undervalued relative to their historical valuations.</p><p><blockquote>菲利普莫里斯国际（PM）、博通（AVGO）和摩根士丹利（MS.PK）相对于其历史估值也被低估。</blockquote></p><p> In such an environment, focus on quality is a must. Focus on value is a close second. We’re looking to buy the highest quality assets with growth prospects at a decent price. We’re very cautious that stimulus unwinding will hit consumption which will hit earning results. Big misses from overvalued names spells trouble. The responsible thing to do is to scale out of stocks when they become overvalued.</p><p><blockquote>在这样的环境下，注重质量是必须的。关注价值紧随其后。我们希望以合理的价格购买具有增长前景的最优质资产。我们非常谨慎地认为，刺激措施的取消将打击消费，从而影响盈利结果。估值过高的名字的重大失误会带来麻烦。负责任的做法是在股票估值过高时退出。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453272-what-will-happen-when-trillions-in-stimulus-runs-out-in-2022\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453272-what-will-happen-when-trillions-in-stimulus-runs-out-in-2022","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115112299","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe US economy and stock market have benefitted from an unprecedented amount of stimulus in 2021.\nWith expanded unemployment set to end, student loan & mortgage forbearance to end, and a possible corporate tax rate hike on the horizon, it's possible 2022 earnings estimates for stocks are simply too high.\nIn light of this, the broad stock market faces an unattractive risk-reward proposition.\nI break down the possibilities and game plan with expert value/dividend investor Sam Kovacs.\n\nIntroduction\nLogan–The United States government has turned to an unprecedented amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus to help the economy through the COVID-19 pandemic. Notable examples include multiple rounds of stimulus checks, the student loan pause, mortgage forbearance/eviction moratorium, PPP, and enhanced unemployment benefits. So far, this effort seems to have been successful, although critics point out that it has resulted in significant increases in inflation. However, the political and economic reality is that the US can't run $3 trillion deficits forever, at least without everyone implicitly paying for it via higher consumer prices compared to their earnings.\nThe weight of theevidence suggeststhat prices are rising faster than wages. In turn, the government has stepped in to fill this gap with stimulus payments, but the trillion-dollar question is what happens when the economy has to run on its own productivity–rather than on temporary transfer payments. For 2021, thanks to pent-up demand and stimulus, S&P 500 components are expected to smash the record for the highest amount ever earned in a year (somewhere between $200 and $205 per share for 2021, vs. the previous record of $163 in 2019). Wall Street analysts additionally expect the S&P 500 to earn~$215 per share in 2022, which would be yet another record. When you pull numbers forproductivity and economic output, the picture isn't as great, which helps explain why there are so many shortages of goods and services right now. If you feel that the change in nominal economic output is more indicative of what corporations can earn over the medium term (taking away the impact of consumers spending temporary transfer payments), you get an earnings number for the S&P 500 closer to $180, which is about 15 percent lower than Wall Street is currently expecting.\nPutting further pressure on earnings is the potential corporate tax hike from 21 percent to 25 percent, which will decrease S&P 500 earnings by 5 percent, all else being equal. Political betting markets show that this has a roughly50/50 chance of becoming lawat the moment. With many investors making easy money piling into low-conviction, high momentum names, the consequences of unwinding stimulus could be a shock to their portfolio balances. Helping me make sense of the stimulus unwind is fellowSeeking AlphaauthorSam Kovacs.Although living halfway across the world from me here in suburban Texas, Sam and I think eerily alike about the markets, gravitating to high-quality stocks with solid earnings and dividends.\nSam–Within the first couple of months of the Fed’s reaction to the pandemic, I was concerned that they would be placing themselves between a rock and a hard place. I would not have wanted to be in Powell’s shoes, but then again there aren’t many government jobs I’d consider taking. Striking a balance between pulling stimulus too early and risking runaway inflation is no easy task. The government has looked to prior crashes and decided that risking inflation was the way to go.\nKeep telling the people that it is “transitory” and surely it will be. But anyone who has taken Econ 101 knows that inflation feeds on itself. At first, companies are reactionary, but then they become proactive in pricing measures. Here are a few snippets.\nFrom Hormel's (HRL) latestcall:\nWe have taken numerous pricing actions across the portfolio to protect profitability. The actions will take place early in the third quarter with additional pricing actions likely.\nFrom Conagra's (CAG) latestcall:\nAnd the short answer is yes. In fact, we began implementing pricing actions on some of our products in the quarter related to the initial inflation we experienced. The very early read on the data from those actions is that our elasticities look good so far. And we have more pricing coming.\nThere will be no shortage of inflation in food in upcoming quarters. Oil price still has a couple of quarters of weak comparables which continue to contribute to higher headline inflation rates.\nFood & transportation, along with housing are the major costs of US households. For1/6thof adults, you can throw in student loans as well. US consumers have been able to absorb the inflation on the back of various stimulus efforts.\nBut the stimulus can’t last forever. Part of it is being extended as Delta is slowing (not killing) the recovery. What happens when the different forms of stimulus fade? That’s what we’re going to look at in the rest of the article.\nThe Eviction/Foreclosure Moratorium\nLogan–Foreclosures have started again, and the Supreme Court recentlystruck downthe eviction moratorium imposed by the CDC. By my last count, there are about1.5 million householdswho are in forbearance programs at the moment (i.e. not paying their mortgages), against somewhere in the ballpark of 50 million mortgages in the US. Foreclosure is a process, not an event, and the most common outcome is that people get behind on their payments, try to work with the bank for 6-12 months, and then eventually sell, collect their equity, and move somewhere cheaper. The problem in 2008 was that borrowers had negative equity on their mortgages, so it short-circuited this process. This isn't the case now–I don't see a systematic risk to the economy from foreclosures. Around 6-7 million houses in the US are bought and sold in a typical year, meaning in a vacuum, most people who are behind could sell over a 6-12 month period, and it would be a win-win for those struggling with the shortage of houses to buy and those who can't make payments on the ones they own. The Fed taper might complicate this. If mortgage rates go back up to the ~4 percent they've averaged over the last 10 years at the same time people are unloading houses they've been in forbearance on, prices are going to come down more.\nEvictions are messier–there are millions of people not paying rent and living off the extra money. When they have to start paying rent again somewhere else, their household budgets are going to dramatically shrink. Roughly 2-3 percent of American households are significantly behind on rent, so I would expect a lot of both formal and informal (cash for keys) evictions. This has to negatively affect consumer spending, and earnings estimates that ignore the unwind of stimulus are not properly accounting for it.\nSam–The risk here is not so much on the real estate market, as Logan correctly summarized, but rather the knock-on effects on consumption.\nThe end of the federal eviction moratorium is a boon for apartment REITs which can resume collecting rent. However, that doesn’t mean investors should pile into residential REITs. have gone from deeply undervalued back to historically overvalued, as the below MAD Chart for Essex Property (ESS) shows. We previously suggested investors sell ESS.\n\nSource:Dividend Freedom Tribe\nLooking at the other residential REITs on the block, the same picture emerges. AvalonBay Communities (AVB) also is historically overvalued.\n\nSource: Dividend Freedom Tribe\nNone seem more overvalued relative to their historical normal range of prices than Camden Property Trust (CPT) which could easily come down by 1/3rdon a change in sentiment.\n\nSource: Dividend Freedom Tribe\nI believe that this trade has passed. We bought ESS about a year ago, and have been selling it throughout the past few months.\nTaking profits now in these industries makes sense: “buy the rumor/sell the news”.\nIf we’re looking ahead, we’re seeing one lever which will pressure consumption for a certain part of the population.\nStudent Loan Forbearance\nLogan–The Biden Administration extended the student loan pause until January 31, 2022. 1 in 6 adults in the US has student loans, with an average balance of ~$40,000. Most borrowers are under 30, a group that spends a higher percentage of their income than, say a 50-year old saving for retirement. Hit 1 in 6 American adults with an average$400 per month payment, paid with mostly post-tax dollars, and that's like stimulus in reverse. Anecdotally, almost no one I know who has student loans is currently paying them. The extra money they're getting from not paying loans is generally either being spent on consumption, invested in cryptocurrency, or in meme stocks like GameStop (GME). This is a decent threat to consumer spending, and there isn't an easy way out. The left wing of the Democratic Party in the US wants to cancel most or all student loans, but the main problem with this is that much of the debt is held by middle and upper-middle-class professionals, which would create a moral hazard as well as redistribute wealth from people lower on the socioeconomic ladder (for example, people who work in trades and pay their income taxes) to those of higher social class (for example, indebted white-collar college graduates). We're talking$1.7+ trillion in US student loansthat are generally not being serviced by those who owe it for this 21 month period. When those kick in again, consumer spending is not going to be higher than it is now. 2022 earnings estimates are mostly blind to this fact.\nSam–When Logan and I initially discussed this article, this seemed to be the easiest form of stimulus for the government to keep giving. Since most of the loans are federal, a pause on the payments doesn’t explicitly hurt anyone enough to complain. And since the handouts are not direct, critics aren’t as vocal as they are with stimulus checks. The money which has been put into various investments, be it stock or crypto, will come out when they have to start servicing debt again. Whether this has enough of an impact to move markets is questionable, but the retail meme stocks could finally have their day of reckoning as a large portion of the population has to resume payments. The aftermath of removing the pause on debt servicing will be harsh for an important part of the population. At least you’ll still be able to watch a movie at AMC Theater (AMC).\nEnhanced Unemployment & Stimulus Checks\nLogan- Enhanced unemployment runs out on September 6, and there are 11 million people who won't be getting it after that week. This is $3.3 billion per week that the Federal government is dripping out to unemployed persons, which in turn is a lot less than it was 12 months ago. When it's gone, it's yet another piece of the puzzle that will rein in consumer spending. Stimulus checks were another source of income for many Americans over the last 18 months. A family of 4 making the median income would have seen a stimulus check in March of $5,600, in addition to the prior payments under the Trump Administration. These aren't going to be going out anymore, and for middle-income Americans, this means that they won't be able to spend as much money as they have before. The expanded child tax credit may make up for this and is probably a more efficient means of getting money out, but it expires also in its current form in December.\nSam–Enhanced Unemployment is running out in a few days, we’re likely to see many of the 8 million Americans who are looking for a job finally find one amongthe 10 million job openings. As of the time of writing, job data is to be posted in the next few hours. Strong job numbers could kick off a Fed taper sooner than expected.\nConclusion: What Is Yet to Come?\nLogan–High profile earnings misses from the likes of Amazon (AMZN), Zoom Video (ZM), and Peloton (PTON) suggest that at least on a micro level, analysts assumed that good times would last forever for companies that benefitted from temporary changes resulting from the pandemic. Whether this is true on a macro level is a strong possibility, and depending on how the rest of earnings results come in for the rest of the year, it may end up becoming a reality. While it isn't set in stone that the market should necessarily go down significantly in price because of this, it's hard to deny that the risk-reward tradeoff for the market has deteriorated over the past 6-12 months. Now is a good time to dial back risk, if at all possible. A good defense, in both of our views, is to invest in high-quality companies rather than popular high-momentum stocks with middling fundamentals, and to take a long-term perspective.\nSam–The inflation train has left the station. Powell believes it is transitory, I believe that it might be partially transitory, but the abundance of fiscal stimulus has kicked up a cycle of inflation which will be above 2% for quite some time. The Covid delta variant has softened some economic indicators like eating out in restaurants or travel, but as the country’s case count is already peaking, the economy is set to continue heating up.\nThis will lead to a taper. Higher rates, or even the expectation of higher rates, will lead to a change in discount rates, which is a fancy way to say future profits are worthless.\nInvestors want to take a hard look at their portfolios and ask whether they have positions which are overvalued beyond reason?\nNo need to look at obscure parts of the market, this is playing out in the S&P 500 (SPY).\nFor instance, I cannot fathom how a stock like Intuit (INTU) currently trades at 16x sales? Even on its lofty usual measure of 8-9x sales, this is unusually high. Compare it to the stock's historical dividend, and the reading is off the wall.\nInvestors want to focus on companies with strong earnings power, large-scale operations, which are trading at relatively cheap valuations.\nAmong those that come to mind in the top 100 stocks are Amgen (AMGN) which currently yields over 3%.\n\nSource: Dividend Freedom Tribe\nPhilip Morris International (PM), Broadcom (AVGO), and Morgan Stanley (MS.PK) are also undervalued relative to their historical valuations.\nIn such an environment, focus on quality is a must. Focus on value is a close second. We’re looking to buy the highest quality assets with growth prospects at a decent price. We’re very cautious that stimulus unwinding will hit consumption which will hit earning results. Big misses from overvalued names spells trouble. The responsible thing to do is to scale out of stocks when they become overvalued.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2031,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":175664354,"gmtCreate":1627029338178,"gmtModify":1631892752840,"author":{"id":"3583811401087980","authorId":"3583811401087980","name":"DLIM","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/140bf807c414ea069de5f87b2b1509cd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583811401087980","idStr":"3583811401087980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Maybe could consider Consumer Staples and Discretionary stocks which should have high secular domestic demands","listText":"Maybe could consider Consumer Staples and Discretionary stocks which should have high secular domestic demands","text":"Maybe could consider Consumer Staples and Discretionary stocks which should have high secular domestic demands","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/175664354","repostId":"1112567098","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":613,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":817689052,"gmtCreate":1630940620176,"gmtModify":1632905031135,"author":{"id":"3583811401087980","authorId":"3583811401087980","name":"DLIM","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/140bf807c414ea069de5f87b2b1509cd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583811401087980","idStr":"3583811401087980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hopefully the management could explore new business opportunities thru aquisition or diversificatio","listText":"Hopefully the management could explore new business opportunities thru aquisition or diversificatio","text":"Hopefully the management could explore new business opportunities thru aquisition or diversificatio","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/817689052","repostId":"2165384258","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3283,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":805525602,"gmtCreate":1627893144706,"gmtModify":1633755531596,"author":{"id":"3583811401087980","authorId":"3583811401087980","name":"DLIM","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/140bf807c414ea069de5f87b2b1509cd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583811401087980","idStr":"3583811401087980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Another manipulating move by Elon&nbsp;[白眼]&nbsp;","listText":"Another manipulating move by Elon&nbsp;[白眼]&nbsp;","text":"Another manipulating move by Elon [白眼]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/805525602","repostId":"1101994060","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4222,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":173986657,"gmtCreate":1626599864579,"gmtModify":1633925560225,"author":{"id":"3583811401087980","authorId":"3583811401087980","name":"DLIM","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/140bf807c414ea069de5f87b2b1509cd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583811401087980","idStr":"3583811401087980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Potfolio diversification and management is important","listText":"Potfolio diversification and management is important","text":"Potfolio diversification and management is important","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/173986657","repostId":"1149577900","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":633,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":865468190,"gmtCreate":1633011517075,"gmtModify":1633011517343,"author":{"id":"3583811401087980","authorId":"3583811401087980","name":"DLIM","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/140bf807c414ea069de5f87b2b1509cd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583811401087980","idStr":"3583811401087980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great summary","listText":"Great summary","text":"Great summary","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/865468190","repostId":"1104172212","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2723,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}