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2021-09-08

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Amazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote>

2021-08-05

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You Can Short Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation Fund. But Is It a Good Idea?<blockquote>你可以做空凯西·伍德的方舟创新基金。但这是个好主意吗？</blockquote>

2021-10-01

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2021-09-29

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Technically Speaking: Is The Market "Melting-Up?"<blockquote>从技术上讲：市场正在“融化”吗？</blockquote>

2021-09-03

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Zooming In On Zoom's Solid But Not Good Enough Results<blockquote>放大Zoom可靠但不够好的结果</blockquote>

2021-09-23

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2021-09-04

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2021-08-15

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These 10 Standout Stocks Could Be the Next Amazon<blockquote>这10只杰出股票可能成为下一个亚马逊</blockquote>

2021-10-13

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Sea Limited stock surged 4% in morning trading<blockquote>Sea Limited股价早盘飙升4%</blockquote>

2021-09-11

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Why Apple’s Risk Is Limited<blockquote>为什么苹果的风险有限</blockquote>

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Roblox Corporation, which enables users to enter virtual communities, known as the metaverse ...</p><p><blockquote><div>RBLX股票可能是长期赢家，但它可能首先受到短期障碍的损害。Roblox公司，使用户能够进入虚拟社区，被称为元宇宙...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/10/is-roblox-stock-poised-to-rally-soon/\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/10/is-roblox-stock-poised-to-rally-soon/\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Roblox Stock Poised to Rally Soon?<blockquote>Roblox股票即将上涨吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Roblox Stock Poised to Rally Soon?<blockquote>Roblox股票即将上涨吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">InvestorPlace</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-18 20:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> RBLX stock is likely to be a long-term winner, but it is likely to be hurt by shorter-term hurdles first.  Roblox Corporation, which enables users to enter virtual communities, known as the metaverse ...</p><p><blockquote><div>RBLX股票可能是长期赢家，但它可能首先受到短期障碍的损害。Roblox公司，使用户能够进入虚拟社区，被称为元宇宙...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/10/is-roblox-stock-poised-to-rally-soon/\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/10/is-roblox-stock-poised-to-rally-soon/\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/10/is-roblox-stock-poised-to-rally-soon/\">InvestorPlace</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"RBLX":"Roblox Corporation"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2021/10/is-roblox-stock-poised-to-rally-soon/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127670394","content_text":"RBLX stock is likely to be a long-term winner, but it is likely to be hurt by shorter-term hurdles first.\n\nRoblox Corporation, which enables users to enter virtual communities, known as the metaverse and create the own video games, has many positive attributes and great growth potential. What’s more, its management team appears to be adept both at making lucrative deals and adding captivating, new features to the company’s metaverse. Still, like many stay-at-home names that thrived in 2020, RBLX stock is facing important macro challenges.\nWhat’s more, despite their recent, sizeable pullback, the shares’ valuation remains quite steep. As a result of the latter two points, I’m currently cautious on the shares.\nRoblox Has Many Strengths\nRoblox has proven to be very proficient when it comes to attracting consumers to its metaverse and keeping them there. In August, thecompany reported that itsactive user base had jumped 32% from last year to 48.2 million\nMoreover, the company has been able to monetize those users fairly effectively, as it predicted that its August sales would come in at $219 million to $222 million. In 2020, Roblox’sreported revenue of $923million, way up from $508 million in 2020.\nAnd showing that it knows how to make very lucrative, highly impactful deals, Robloxannounced thatit would team up with the giant toymaker,Hasbro(NASDAQ:HAS). Under the agreement, Hasbro agreed to unveil Roblox-inspired Nerf blasters and a Monopoly board game that is based on Roblox.\nThe deal is likely to generate very high-margin royalties for Roblox that will move the needle for RBLX stock. Also worth noting is that a major cartoon creator, DreamWorks, already launched a Roblox TV series. I’m sure that Roblox is also getting high-margin royalties from that show.\nGiven the strong popularity of its metaverse, I expect the company to announce many more such deals.\nFinally, in September, the company statedthat it had added “spatial voice” that enablesvoice chat on its platform. Basically, it allows certain users to communicate with each other, using their own voices, in specified parts of Roblox’s metaverse.\nMany people like using their voices to communicate and find it very easy and natural to do so. Further, there are not very many video game developersthat have made voice chatan integral part of their offerings. Consequently, I believe that Roblox’s voice chat feature will, over the long term, make Roblox’s virtual community meaningfully more popular.\nMacro Challenges and Valuation\nAs I’ve written in multiple, past columns, video game makers, along with other developers of stay-at-home products that thrived during the heart of the pandemic, are likely to be hurt by the winding down of the virus. So it’s  unsurprising that Roblox’sdaily average users increased only4% in August versus July. That was a significant deceleration from the 8% month-over-month increase that the company reported in July compared with June.\nAs the pandemic winds down further, the company could very well report month-over-month declines in some of its user metrics, causing the shares to drop considerably. Making the stock particularly risky in the near-to-medium term is the fact that, despite its recent, steep declines, its valuation remains quite elevated.\nSince peaking in June, the stock had tumbled about 25%. Yet the shares are still changing hands for 13.5x analysts’ average 2022 revenue estimate. That’s a high valuation for a company that still generates steep losses, is in a highly competitive sector, and is facing important near-and-medium-term hurdles.\nThe Bottom Line on RBLX Stock\nRoblox appears to be well positioned to become a winner in the long term. But given its near-and-medium-term hurdles, I advise investors to wait for a better entry point before taking a bullish position in the name.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"RBLX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3388,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":822236974,"gmtCreate":1634133690364,"gmtModify":1634133690425,"author":{"id":"3583806200035507","authorId":"3583806200035507","name":"HuiBing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583806200035507","idStr":"3583806200035507"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/822236974","repostId":"1113013066","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1113013066","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1634132611,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1113013066?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-13 21:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Sea Limited stock surged 4% in morning trading<blockquote>Sea Limited股价早盘飙升4%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113013066","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Sea Limited stock surged 4% in morning trading.\n\nThe worldwide e-commerce market reports sales could","content":"<p>Sea Limited stock surged 4% in morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>Sea Limited股价早盘飙升4%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fddc716b0b77f80b45903abab0f71a7\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The worldwide e-commerce market reports sales could hit nearly $5 trillion in 2021. The migration of commerce from brick-and-mortar stores to the internet remains&nbsp;one&nbsp;of the most important growth stories of this era. Internet company&nbsp;<b>Sea Limited</b>(NYSE:SE) has emerged as the e-commerce leader in Southeast Asia while expanding into new markets such as Latin America, India, and Europe.</p><p><blockquote>全球电子商务市场报告称，2021年销售额可能达到近5万亿美元。商业从实体店向互联网的迁移仍然是这个时代最重要的增长故事之一。互联网公司<b>海有限公司</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SE）已成为东南亚电子商务的领导者，同时扩展到拉丁美洲、印度和欧洲等新市场。</blockquote></p><p> The company does more than e-commerce, tying successful gaming and digital payments businesses into its customer base. Sea Limited's Garena division owns FreeFire, the world's most popular mobile game.</p><p><blockquote>该公司不仅仅做电子商务，还将成功的游戏和数字支付业务与其客户群联系起来。Sea Limited的Garena部门拥有世界上最受欢迎的手机游戏FreeFire。</blockquote></p><p> Sea Limited has reported its 2021 second quarter, where revenue came in at $2.3 billion, a 159% increase year over year. An important thing to note is that the company, although reporting a net loss for the period, is seeing an increase in its number of active and quarterly paying users. It's just getting started in its new markets, so growth could easily continue to be rampant in the years ahead, forging a pathway to profitability.</p><p><blockquote>Sea Limited公布2021年第二季度收入为23亿美元，同比增长159%。值得注意的重要一点是，尽管该公司报告期内出现净亏损，但其活跃用户和季度付费用户数量正在增加。它刚刚进入新市场，因此未来几年增长很容易继续猖獗，从而开辟一条盈利之路。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sea Limited stock surged 4% in morning trading<blockquote>Sea Limited股价早盘飙升4%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSea Limited stock surged 4% in morning trading<blockquote>Sea Limited股价早盘飙升4%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-10-13 21:43</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Sea Limited stock surged 4% in morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>Sea Limited股价早盘飙升4%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fddc716b0b77f80b45903abab0f71a7\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The worldwide e-commerce market reports sales could hit nearly $5 trillion in 2021. The migration of commerce from brick-and-mortar stores to the internet remains&nbsp;one&nbsp;of the most important growth stories of this era. Internet company&nbsp;<b>Sea Limited</b>(NYSE:SE) has emerged as the e-commerce leader in Southeast Asia while expanding into new markets such as Latin America, India, and Europe.</p><p><blockquote>全球电子商务市场报告称，2021年销售额可能达到近5万亿美元。商业从实体店向互联网的迁移仍然是这个时代最重要的增长故事之一。互联网公司<b>海有限公司</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SE）已成为东南亚电子商务的领导者，同时扩展到拉丁美洲、印度和欧洲等新市场。</blockquote></p><p> The company does more than e-commerce, tying successful gaming and digital payments businesses into its customer base. Sea Limited's Garena division owns FreeFire, the world's most popular mobile game.</p><p><blockquote>该公司不仅仅做电子商务，还将成功的游戏和数字支付业务与其客户群联系起来。Sea Limited的Garena部门拥有世界上最受欢迎的手机游戏FreeFire。</blockquote></p><p> Sea Limited has reported its 2021 second quarter, where revenue came in at $2.3 billion, a 159% increase year over year. An important thing to note is that the company, although reporting a net loss for the period, is seeing an increase in its number of active and quarterly paying users. It's just getting started in its new markets, so growth could easily continue to be rampant in the years ahead, forging a pathway to profitability.</p><p><blockquote>Sea Limited公布2021年第二季度收入为23亿美元，同比增长159%。值得注意的重要一点是，尽管该公司报告期内出现净亏损，但其活跃用户和季度付费用户数量正在增加。它刚刚进入新市场，因此未来几年增长很容易继续猖獗，从而开辟一条盈利之路。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1113013066","content_text":"Sea Limited stock surged 4% in morning trading.\n\nThe worldwide e-commerce market reports sales could hit nearly $5 trillion in 2021. The migration of commerce from brick-and-mortar stores to the internet remains one of the most important growth stories of this era. Internet company Sea Limited(NYSE:SE) has emerged as the e-commerce leader in Southeast Asia while expanding into new markets such as Latin America, India, and Europe.\nThe company does more than e-commerce, tying successful gaming and digital payments businesses into its customer base. Sea Limited's Garena division owns FreeFire, the world's most popular mobile game.\nSea Limited has reported its 2021 second quarter, where revenue came in at $2.3 billion, a 159% increase year over year. An important thing to note is that the company, although reporting a net loss for the period, is seeing an increase in its number of active and quarterly paying users. It's just getting started in its new markets, so growth could easily continue to be rampant in the years ahead, forging a pathway to profitability.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2803,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":864209351,"gmtCreate":1633101363666,"gmtModify":1633101413514,"author":{"id":"3583806200035507","authorId":"3583806200035507","name":"HuiBing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583806200035507","idStr":"3583806200035507"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/864209351","repostId":"2172963836","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3474,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":862554803,"gmtCreate":1632894451863,"gmtModify":1632894452049,"author":{"id":"3583806200035507","authorId":"3583806200035507","name":"HuiBing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583806200035507","idStr":"3583806200035507"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862554803","repostId":"1198528044","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198528044","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632882697,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198528044?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-29 10:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Technically Speaking: Is The Market \"Melting-Up?\"<blockquote>从技术上讲：市场正在“融化”吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198528044","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nGiven the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protect","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.</li>  <li>As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.</li>  <li>While it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent “this time is different”.</li> </ul> Is the<i>“market melting-up?”</i>Such was the question I received from my colleague at<i>Cut The Crap Investing.</i>It is an excellent question given the relentless increase in what investors believe is a<i>“no risk”</i>market.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>鉴于美联储正在进行的资产负债表操作，投资者完全相信他们有能力免受经济衰退的影响。</li><li>与往常一样，投资大众相信未来的收益将证明在融化期间价格上涨是合理的。从来都不是那样的。</li><li>虽然在融化持续期间利用它是至关重要的，但不要过于自满“这次不同了”。</li></ul>是<i>“市场融化？”</i>这是我从我的同事那里收到的问题<i>少废话投资。</i>考虑到投资者认为的持续增长，这是一个很好的问题<i>“没有风险”</i>市场。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, we need a definition of precisely what constitutes a melt-up.</p><p><blockquote>当然，我们需要一个准确定义什么是融化。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“A melt-up is a sustained and often unexpected improvement in the investment performance of an asset or asset class, driven partly</i>  <i><b>by a stampede of investors who don’t want to miss out on its rise,</b></i>  <i>rather than by fundamental improvements in the economy.“</i>–  <i>Investopedia</i>  Currently, there is sufficient evidence to support the idea of an exuberant market.<b><i>As noted previously:</i></b></p><p><blockquote><i>他说：“熔断是指一项资产或资产类别的投资表现持续且往往出乎意料的改善，部分原因是</i><i><b>不想错过其上涨机会的投资者蜂拥而至，</b></i><i>而不是经济的根本改善。”</i>–<i>投资百科</i>目前，有足够的证据支持市场繁荣的观点。<b><i>如前所述：</i></b></blockquote></p><p>   <i>“Near peaks of market cycles, investors become swept up by the underlying exuberance. That exuberance breeds the “rationalization” that “this time is different.” So how do you know the market is exuberant currently? Via Sentiment Trader:”</i>    <i>‘This type of market activity is an indication that markets have returned their ‘enthusiasm’ stage. Such is characterized by:’</i>  <ul>  <li><b><i>High optimism</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Easy credit (too easy, with loose terms)</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>A rush of initial and secondary offerings</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Risky stocks outperforming</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Stretched valuations</i></b></li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff8de3a84084162ca86b415584bbf793\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><i>“在市场周期接近峰值时，投资者会被潜在的繁荣所席卷。这种繁荣滋生了“合理化”，即“这次不同了”。那么，你如何知道市场目前是繁荣的呢？通过情绪交易者：”</i><i>这种类型的市场活动表明市场已经回到了“热情”阶段。其特征在于：</i><ul><li><b><i>高度乐观</i></b></li><li><b><i>宽松信贷（太宽松，条款宽松）</i></b></li><li><b><i>首次和二次发行热潮</i></b></li><li><b><i>风险股跑赢大盘</i></b></li><li><b><i>估值过高</i></b></li></ul></blockquote></p><p> However, while one would expect individuals to exhibit caution in such an environment, the opposite is true. Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.</p><p><blockquote>然而，虽然人们会期望个人在这样的环境中表现出谨慎，但事实恰恰相反。鉴于美联储正在进行的资产负债表操作，投资者完全相信他们有能力免受经济衰退的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Visualization Of A Market Melting-Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场融化的可视化</b></blockquote></p><p> It is often easier to visualize something rather than explain it.<b>Since 1900, only two previous market periods qualify as a melt-up: 1920-1929 and 1995-2000.</b>The chart below shows both periods in terms of price.</p><p><blockquote>想象某事通常比解释它更容易。<b>自1900年以来，只有两个市场时期符合熔化的条件：1920-1929年和1995-2000年。</b>下图显示了这两个时期的价格。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a218c7efe2ebd874d05c9ff7dd564436\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f193c9c32d55747bf7ff511c2f9fd53\" tg-width=\"793\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> However, the melt-up is also visually represented by the incredibly sharp rise in valuations. Such is essential because earnings are not rising at a fast enough clip to support higher prices.<b>As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，估值的大幅上涨也直观地体现了这种融化。这一点至关重要，因为盈利增长速度不足以支撑价格上涨。<b>与往常一样，投资大众相信未来的收益将证明在融化期间价格上涨是合理的。从来都不是那样的。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c69e418d5a19d6fd03b305ab111e3be3\" tg-width=\"794\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af03d3bbd071b8edfdf3a19e2c7b0bcd\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We can compare those two previous periods with the current advance from the March 2020 lows. Again, we see a very similar sharp advance in price combined with a surge in valuations. As expected, investors are currently hoping that future earnings will rise sharply enough to justify current prices. However, the justification for paying high prices is the Federal Reserve’s ongoing balance sheet expansion.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以将前两个时期与当前从2020年3月低点的上涨进行比较。我们再次看到非常相似的价格大幅上涨和估值飙升。正如预期的那样，投资者目前希望未来收益将大幅上涨，足以证明当前价格的合理性。然而，支付高价的理由是美联储持续的资产负债表扩张。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3562aea27b24ad4921d0f5cd497e072\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"444\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The following chart looks that the price advance and valuation measures a little differently. It shows the current deviation from the long-term exponential growth trend. Not surprisingly, during a market<i>“melt-up,”</i>there is a rapid deviation from the growth trend matching the acceleration in valuations.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示，价格上涨和估值指标略有不同。它显示了当前与长期指数增长趋势的背离。毫不奇怪，在市场期间<i>“融化。”</i>与估值加速相匹配的增长趋势出现了快速背离。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1419cf4b2afdcdc0f61e0cad862f498d\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The problem with market<i>“melt-ups”</i>is not the melt-up itself but what always follows.</p><p><blockquote>市场的问题<i>“融化”</i>不是融化本身，而是随之而来的一切。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Melting-Up Leads To Melting-Down</b></p><p><blockquote><b>熔化导致熔化</b></blockquote></p><p> A market melting-up is exciting while it lasts. During melt-ups, investors begin to rationalize why<i>“this time is different.”</i>They start taking on excess leverage to try and capitalize on the rapid advance in prices, and fundamentals take a back seat to price momentum.</p><p><blockquote>市场融化持续下去是令人兴奋的。在熔断期间，投资者开始合理化原因<i>“这次不一样。”</i>他们开始过度杠杆，试图利用价格的快速上涨，基本面让位于价格动能。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Market melt-ups are all about<i>“psychology.”</i><b>Historically, whatever has been the catalyst to spark the disregard of risk is readily witnessed in the corresponding surge in price and valuations.</b>The chart below shows the long-term deviations in relative strength, deviations, and valuations. The previous<i>‘melt-up”</i>periods should be easy to spot when compared with the advance currently.</p><p><blockquote>市场融化都是关于<i>“心理学。”</i><b>从历史上看，无论引发忽视风险的催化剂是什么，都很容易在价格和估值的相应飙升中看到。</b>下图显示了相对强度、偏差和估值的长期偏差。上一篇<i>“融化”</i>与目前的进展相比，时期应该很容易发现。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc04cb25c0199dd17475a551a5dd7ec1\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Given that current extensions match only a few rare periods in history, a couple of points should be readily apparent.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于目前的延期仅与历史上少数罕见的时期相匹配，有几点应该是显而易见的。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><b><i>Melt-ups can longer than logic would predict.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>The prevailing psychology is always “this time is different.”</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Valuations are dismissed in exchange for measures of momentum and forward expectations.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Investors take on excess leverage and risk in order to participate in a seemingly “can’t lose” market.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Lastly, and inevitably, “melt-ups” end and always in the worst possible outcomes.</i></b></li> </ol> It is essential to recognize the markets are in a<i>“melt-up,</i>” and the duration of that event is unknowable. Therefore, investors need a strategy to participate in the advance and mitigate the damage from the eventual<i>“melting-down.”</i></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><b><i>融化的时间可能比逻辑预测的要长。</i></b></li><li><b><i>普遍的心理总是“这次不一样了”。</i></b></li><li><b><i>估值被驳回，以换取动量和前瞻性预期的衡量标准。</i></b></li><li><b><i>投资者为了参与一个看似“输不起”的市场，承担了过多的杠杆和风险。</i></b></li><li><b><i>最后，不可避免的是，“融化”以最糟糕的结果告终。</i></b></li></ol>必须认识到市场正处于<i>“融化，</i>“而且该事件的持续时间是未知的。因此，投资者需要一种策略来参与提前并减轻最终的损失<i>“熔化。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Surviving The Melt-Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在融化中幸存下来</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>As noted, none of this means the next</b><b><i>“bear market”</i></b><b>is lurking.</b>Given that a market melting-up is a function of psychology, they can last longer and go further than logic would predict. What is required to “<i>end”</i>a melt-up is an unanticipated exogenous event that changes psychology from bullish to bearish. Such is when the stampede for the exits occurs, and prices decline very quickly.</p><p><blockquote><b>如上所述，这些都不意味着下一个</b><b><i>“熊市”</i></b><b>正在潜伏。</b>鉴于市场融化是心理作用，它们可以持续更长时间，走得比逻辑预测的更远。需要什么“<i>结束“</i>融化是一种意想不到的外生事件，它将心理从看涨转变为看跌。这就是人们蜂拥退出的时候，价格会迅速下跌。</blockquote></p><p> As such, investors need a set of guidelines to participate in the market advance. But, of course, the hard part is keeping those gains when corrections inevitably occur.</p><p><blockquote>因此，投资者需要一套指导方针来参与市场上涨。但是，当然，困难的部分是在不可避免地发生调整时保持这些收益。</blockquote></p><p> As portfolio managers for our clients, such is precisely the approach we must take. Accordingly, I have provided a general overview of the process that we employ.</p><p><blockquote>作为客户的投资组合经理，这正是我们必须采取的方法。因此，我提供了我们采用的流程的总体概述。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><i><b>Tighten up stop-loss levels</b></i><i>to current support levels for each position.(Provides identifiable exit points when the market reverses.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Hedge portfolios</b></i><i>against major market declines.(Non-correlated assets, short-market positions, index put options)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Take profits</b></i><i>in positions that have been big winners(Rebalancing overbought or extended positions to capture gains but continue to participate in the advance.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Sell laggards</b></i><i>and losers</i>.<i>(If something isn’t working in a market melt-up, it most likely won’t work during a broad decline. Better to eliminate the risk early.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Raise cash</b></i><i>and rebalance portfolios to target weightings.(Rebalancing risk on a regular basis keeps hidden risks somewhat mitigated.)</i></li> </ol> <b>Notice, nothing in there says,</b><b><i>“sell everything and go to cash.”</i></b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><i><b>收紧止损水平</b></i><i>每个头寸的当前支撑位。（当市场反转时提供可识别的退出点。）</i></li><li><i><b>对冲投资组合</b></i><i>（非相关资产、空头市场头寸、指数看跌期权）</i></li><li><i><b>获利了结</b></i><i>在已经成为大赢家的头寸中（重新平衡超买或扩展头寸以获取收益，但继续参与上涨。）</i></li><li><i><b>出售落后者</b></i><i>和失败者</i>.<i>（如果某些东西在市场融化时不起作用，那么在广泛下跌时很可能也不会起作用。最好尽早消除风险。）</i></li><li><i><b>筹集现金</b></i><i>并重新平衡投资组合以达到目标权重。（定期重新平衡风险可以在一定程度上减轻隐藏的风险。）</i></li></ol><b>注意，里面没有任何东西说，</b><b><i>“卖掉所有东西，去兑现。”</i></b></blockquote></p><p> There will be a time to raise significant levels of cash. A good portfolio management strategy will automatically ensure that<i>“stop-loss”</i>levels get triggered, exposure decreases, and cash levels rise when the selling begins.</p><p><blockquote>将会有一段时间来筹集大量现金。一个好的投资组合管理策略将自动确保<i>“止损”</i>当出售开始时，水平被触发，风险减少，现金水平上升。</blockquote></p><p> While it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent<i>“this time is different.”</i></p><p><blockquote>虽然有必要在融化持续期间利用它，但不要过于自满<i>“这次不一样。”</i></blockquote></p><p> It likely isn’t.</p><p><blockquote>很可能不是。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Technically Speaking: Is The Market \"Melting-Up?\"<blockquote>从技术上讲：市场正在“融化”吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTechnically Speaking: Is The Market \"Melting-Up?\"<blockquote>从技术上讲：市场正在“融化”吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-29 10:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.</li>  <li>As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.</li>  <li>While it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent “this time is different”.</li> </ul> Is the<i>“market melting-up?”</i>Such was the question I received from my colleague at<i>Cut The Crap Investing.</i>It is an excellent question given the relentless increase in what investors believe is a<i>“no risk”</i>market.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>鉴于美联储正在进行的资产负债表操作，投资者完全相信他们有能力免受经济衰退的影响。</li><li>与往常一样，投资大众相信未来的收益将证明在融化期间价格上涨是合理的。从来都不是那样的。</li><li>虽然在融化持续期间利用它是至关重要的，但不要过于自满“这次不同了”。</li></ul>是<i>“市场融化？”</i>这是我从我的同事那里收到的问题<i>少废话投资。</i>考虑到投资者认为的持续增长，这是一个很好的问题<i>“没有风险”</i>市场。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, we need a definition of precisely what constitutes a melt-up.</p><p><blockquote>当然，我们需要一个准确定义什么是融化。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“A melt-up is a sustained and often unexpected improvement in the investment performance of an asset or asset class, driven partly</i>  <i><b>by a stampede of investors who don’t want to miss out on its rise,</b></i>  <i>rather than by fundamental improvements in the economy.“</i>–  <i>Investopedia</i>  Currently, there is sufficient evidence to support the idea of an exuberant market.<b><i>As noted previously:</i></b></p><p><blockquote><i>他说：“熔断是指一项资产或资产类别的投资表现持续且往往出乎意料的改善，部分原因是</i><i><b>不想错过其上涨机会的投资者蜂拥而至，</b></i><i>而不是经济的根本改善。”</i>–<i>投资百科</i>目前，有足够的证据支持市场繁荣的观点。<b><i>如前所述：</i></b></blockquote></p><p>   <i>“Near peaks of market cycles, investors become swept up by the underlying exuberance. That exuberance breeds the “rationalization” that “this time is different.” So how do you know the market is exuberant currently? Via Sentiment Trader:”</i>    <i>‘This type of market activity is an indication that markets have returned their ‘enthusiasm’ stage. Such is characterized by:’</i>  <ul>  <li><b><i>High optimism</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Easy credit (too easy, with loose terms)</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>A rush of initial and secondary offerings</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Risky stocks outperforming</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Stretched valuations</i></b></li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff8de3a84084162ca86b415584bbf793\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><i>“在市场周期接近峰值时，投资者会被潜在的繁荣所席卷。这种繁荣滋生了“合理化”，即“这次不同了”。那么，你如何知道市场目前是繁荣的呢？通过情绪交易者：”</i><i>这种类型的市场活动表明市场已经回到了“热情”阶段。其特征在于：</i><ul><li><b><i>高度乐观</i></b></li><li><b><i>宽松信贷（太宽松，条款宽松）</i></b></li><li><b><i>首次和二次发行热潮</i></b></li><li><b><i>风险股跑赢大盘</i></b></li><li><b><i>估值过高</i></b></li></ul></blockquote></p><p> However, while one would expect individuals to exhibit caution in such an environment, the opposite is true. Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.</p><p><blockquote>然而，虽然人们会期望个人在这样的环境中表现出谨慎，但事实恰恰相反。鉴于美联储正在进行的资产负债表操作，投资者完全相信他们有能力免受经济衰退的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Visualization Of A Market Melting-Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场融化的可视化</b></blockquote></p><p> It is often easier to visualize something rather than explain it.<b>Since 1900, only two previous market periods qualify as a melt-up: 1920-1929 and 1995-2000.</b>The chart below shows both periods in terms of price.</p><p><blockquote>想象某事通常比解释它更容易。<b>自1900年以来，只有两个市场时期符合熔化的条件：1920-1929年和1995-2000年。</b>下图显示了这两个时期的价格。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a218c7efe2ebd874d05c9ff7dd564436\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f193c9c32d55747bf7ff511c2f9fd53\" tg-width=\"793\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> However, the melt-up is also visually represented by the incredibly sharp rise in valuations. Such is essential because earnings are not rising at a fast enough clip to support higher prices.<b>As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，估值的大幅上涨也直观地体现了这种融化。这一点至关重要，因为盈利增长速度不足以支撑价格上涨。<b>与往常一样，投资大众相信未来的收益将证明在融化期间价格上涨是合理的。从来都不是那样的。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c69e418d5a19d6fd03b305ab111e3be3\" tg-width=\"794\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af03d3bbd071b8edfdf3a19e2c7b0bcd\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We can compare those two previous periods with the current advance from the March 2020 lows. Again, we see a very similar sharp advance in price combined with a surge in valuations. As expected, investors are currently hoping that future earnings will rise sharply enough to justify current prices. However, the justification for paying high prices is the Federal Reserve’s ongoing balance sheet expansion.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以将前两个时期与当前从2020年3月低点的上涨进行比较。我们再次看到非常相似的价格大幅上涨和估值飙升。正如预期的那样，投资者目前希望未来收益将大幅上涨，足以证明当前价格的合理性。然而，支付高价的理由是美联储持续的资产负债表扩张。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3562aea27b24ad4921d0f5cd497e072\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"444\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The following chart looks that the price advance and valuation measures a little differently. It shows the current deviation from the long-term exponential growth trend. Not surprisingly, during a market<i>“melt-up,”</i>there is a rapid deviation from the growth trend matching the acceleration in valuations.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示，价格上涨和估值指标略有不同。它显示了当前与长期指数增长趋势的背离。毫不奇怪，在市场期间<i>“融化。”</i>与估值加速相匹配的增长趋势出现了快速背离。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1419cf4b2afdcdc0f61e0cad862f498d\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The problem with market<i>“melt-ups”</i>is not the melt-up itself but what always follows.</p><p><blockquote>市场的问题<i>“融化”</i>不是融化本身，而是随之而来的一切。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Melting-Up Leads To Melting-Down</b></p><p><blockquote><b>熔化导致熔化</b></blockquote></p><p> A market melting-up is exciting while it lasts. During melt-ups, investors begin to rationalize why<i>“this time is different.”</i>They start taking on excess leverage to try and capitalize on the rapid advance in prices, and fundamentals take a back seat to price momentum.</p><p><blockquote>市场融化持续下去是令人兴奋的。在熔断期间，投资者开始合理化原因<i>“这次不一样。”</i>他们开始过度杠杆，试图利用价格的快速上涨，基本面让位于价格动能。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Market melt-ups are all about<i>“psychology.”</i><b>Historically, whatever has been the catalyst to spark the disregard of risk is readily witnessed in the corresponding surge in price and valuations.</b>The chart below shows the long-term deviations in relative strength, deviations, and valuations. The previous<i>‘melt-up”</i>periods should be easy to spot when compared with the advance currently.</p><p><blockquote>市场融化都是关于<i>“心理学。”</i><b>从历史上看，无论引发忽视风险的催化剂是什么，都很容易在价格和估值的相应飙升中看到。</b>下图显示了相对强度、偏差和估值的长期偏差。上一篇<i>“融化”</i>与目前的进展相比，时期应该很容易发现。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc04cb25c0199dd17475a551a5dd7ec1\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Given that current extensions match only a few rare periods in history, a couple of points should be readily apparent.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于目前的延期仅与历史上少数罕见的时期相匹配，有几点应该是显而易见的。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><b><i>Melt-ups can longer than logic would predict.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>The prevailing psychology is always “this time is different.”</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Valuations are dismissed in exchange for measures of momentum and forward expectations.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Investors take on excess leverage and risk in order to participate in a seemingly “can’t lose” market.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Lastly, and inevitably, “melt-ups” end and always in the worst possible outcomes.</i></b></li> </ol> It is essential to recognize the markets are in a<i>“melt-up,</i>” and the duration of that event is unknowable. Therefore, investors need a strategy to participate in the advance and mitigate the damage from the eventual<i>“melting-down.”</i></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><b><i>融化的时间可能比逻辑预测的要长。</i></b></li><li><b><i>普遍的心理总是“这次不一样了”。</i></b></li><li><b><i>估值被驳回，以换取动量和前瞻性预期的衡量标准。</i></b></li><li><b><i>投资者为了参与一个看似“输不起”的市场，承担了过多的杠杆和风险。</i></b></li><li><b><i>最后，不可避免的是，“融化”以最糟糕的结果告终。</i></b></li></ol>必须认识到市场正处于<i>“融化，</i>“而且该事件的持续时间是未知的。因此，投资者需要一种策略来参与提前并减轻最终的损失<i>“熔化。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Surviving The Melt-Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在融化中幸存下来</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>As noted, none of this means the next</b><b><i>“bear market”</i></b><b>is lurking.</b>Given that a market melting-up is a function of psychology, they can last longer and go further than logic would predict. What is required to “<i>end”</i>a melt-up is an unanticipated exogenous event that changes psychology from bullish to bearish. Such is when the stampede for the exits occurs, and prices decline very quickly.</p><p><blockquote><b>如上所述，这些都不意味着下一个</b><b><i>“熊市”</i></b><b>正在潜伏。</b>鉴于市场融化是心理作用，它们可以持续更长时间，走得比逻辑预测的更远。需要什么“<i>结束“</i>融化是一种意想不到的外生事件，它将心理从看涨转变为看跌。这就是人们蜂拥退出的时候，价格会迅速下跌。</blockquote></p><p> As such, investors need a set of guidelines to participate in the market advance. But, of course, the hard part is keeping those gains when corrections inevitably occur.</p><p><blockquote>因此，投资者需要一套指导方针来参与市场上涨。但是，当然，困难的部分是在不可避免地发生调整时保持这些收益。</blockquote></p><p> As portfolio managers for our clients, such is precisely the approach we must take. Accordingly, I have provided a general overview of the process that we employ.</p><p><blockquote>作为客户的投资组合经理，这正是我们必须采取的方法。因此，我提供了我们采用的流程的总体概述。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><i><b>Tighten up stop-loss levels</b></i><i>to current support levels for each position.(Provides identifiable exit points when the market reverses.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Hedge portfolios</b></i><i>against major market declines.(Non-correlated assets, short-market positions, index put options)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Take profits</b></i><i>in positions that have been big winners(Rebalancing overbought or extended positions to capture gains but continue to participate in the advance.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Sell laggards</b></i><i>and losers</i>.<i>(If something isn’t working in a market melt-up, it most likely won’t work during a broad decline. Better to eliminate the risk early.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Raise cash</b></i><i>and rebalance portfolios to target weightings.(Rebalancing risk on a regular basis keeps hidden risks somewhat mitigated.)</i></li> </ol> <b>Notice, nothing in there says,</b><b><i>“sell everything and go to cash.”</i></b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><i><b>收紧止损水平</b></i><i>每个头寸的当前支撑位。（当市场反转时提供可识别的退出点。）</i></li><li><i><b>对冲投资组合</b></i><i>（非相关资产、空头市场头寸、指数看跌期权）</i></li><li><i><b>获利了结</b></i><i>在已经成为大赢家的头寸中（重新平衡超买或扩展头寸以获取收益，但继续参与上涨。）</i></li><li><i><b>出售落后者</b></i><i>和失败者</i>.<i>（如果某些东西在市场融化时不起作用，那么在广泛下跌时很可能也不会起作用。最好尽早消除风险。）</i></li><li><i><b>筹集现金</b></i><i>并重新平衡投资组合以达到目标权重。（定期重新平衡风险可以在一定程度上减轻隐藏的风险。）</i></li></ol><b>注意，里面没有任何东西说，</b><b><i>“卖掉所有东西，去兑现。”</i></b></blockquote></p><p> There will be a time to raise significant levels of cash. A good portfolio management strategy will automatically ensure that<i>“stop-loss”</i>levels get triggered, exposure decreases, and cash levels rise when the selling begins.</p><p><blockquote>将会有一段时间来筹集大量现金。一个好的投资组合管理策略将自动确保<i>“止损”</i>当出售开始时，水平被触发，风险减少，现金水平上升。</blockquote></p><p> While it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent<i>“this time is different.”</i></p><p><blockquote>虽然有必要在融化持续期间利用它，但不要过于自满<i>“这次不一样。”</i></blockquote></p><p> It likely isn’t.</p><p><blockquote>很可能不是。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457469-technically-speaking-is-the-market-melting-up\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457469-technically-speaking-is-the-market-melting-up","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198528044","content_text":"Summary\n\nGiven the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.\nAs is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.\nWhile it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent “this time is different”.\n\nIs the“market melting-up?”Such was the question I received from my colleague atCut The Crap Investing.It is an excellent question given the relentless increase in what investors believe is a“no risk”market.\nOf course, we need a definition of precisely what constitutes a melt-up.\n\n“A melt-up is a sustained and often unexpected improvement in the investment performance of an asset or asset class, driven partly\nby a stampede of investors who don’t want to miss out on its rise,\nrather than by fundamental improvements in the economy.“–\n Investopedia\n\nCurrently, there is sufficient evidence to support the idea of an exuberant market.As noted previously:\n\n“Near peaks of market cycles, investors become swept up by the underlying exuberance. That exuberance breeds the “rationalization” that “this time is different.” So how do you know the market is exuberant currently? Via Sentiment Trader:”\n\n\n‘This type of market activity is an indication that markets have returned their ‘enthusiasm’ stage. Such is characterized by:’\n\n\nHigh optimism\nEasy credit (too easy, with loose terms)\nA rush of initial and secondary offerings\nRisky stocks outperforming\nStretched valuations\n\n\nHowever, while one would expect individuals to exhibit caution in such an environment, the opposite is true. Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.\nA Visualization Of A Market Melting-Up\nIt is often easier to visualize something rather than explain it.Since 1900, only two previous market periods qualify as a melt-up: 1920-1929 and 1995-2000.The chart below shows both periods in terms of price.\n\nHowever, the melt-up is also visually represented by the incredibly sharp rise in valuations. Such is essential because earnings are not rising at a fast enough clip to support higher prices.As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.\n\nWe can compare those two previous periods with the current advance from the March 2020 lows. Again, we see a very similar sharp advance in price combined with a surge in valuations. As expected, investors are currently hoping that future earnings will rise sharply enough to justify current prices. However, the justification for paying high prices is the Federal Reserve’s ongoing balance sheet expansion.\n\nThe following chart looks that the price advance and valuation measures a little differently. It shows the current deviation from the long-term exponential growth trend. Not surprisingly, during a market“melt-up,”there is a rapid deviation from the growth trend matching the acceleration in valuations.\n\nThe problem with market“melt-ups”is not the melt-up itself but what always follows.\nMelting-Up Leads To Melting-Down\nA market melting-up is exciting while it lasts. During melt-ups, investors begin to rationalize why“this time is different.”They start taking on excess leverage to try and capitalize on the rapid advance in prices, and fundamentals take a back seat to price momentum.\nMarket melt-ups are all about“psychology.”Historically, whatever has been the catalyst to spark the disregard of risk is readily witnessed in the corresponding surge in price and valuations.The chart below shows the long-term deviations in relative strength, deviations, and valuations. The previous‘melt-up”periods should be easy to spot when compared with the advance currently.\n\nGiven that current extensions match only a few rare periods in history, a couple of points should be readily apparent.\n\nMelt-ups can longer than logic would predict.\nThe prevailing psychology is always “this time is different.”\nValuations are dismissed in exchange for measures of momentum and forward expectations.\nInvestors take on excess leverage and risk in order to participate in a seemingly “can’t lose” market.\nLastly, and inevitably, “melt-ups” end and always in the worst possible outcomes.\n\nIt is essential to recognize the markets are in a“melt-up,” and the duration of that event is unknowable. Therefore, investors need a strategy to participate in the advance and mitigate the damage from the eventual“melting-down.”\nSurviving The Melt-Up\nAs noted, none of this means the next“bear market”is lurking.Given that a market melting-up is a function of psychology, they can last longer and go further than logic would predict. What is required to “end”a melt-up is an unanticipated exogenous event that changes psychology from bullish to bearish. Such is when the stampede for the exits occurs, and prices decline very quickly.\nAs such, investors need a set of guidelines to participate in the market advance. But, of course, the hard part is keeping those gains when corrections inevitably occur.\nAs portfolio managers for our clients, such is precisely the approach we must take. Accordingly, I have provided a general overview of the process that we employ.\n\nTighten up stop-loss levelsto current support levels for each position.(Provides identifiable exit points when the market reverses.)\nHedge portfoliosagainst major market declines.(Non-correlated assets, short-market positions, index put options)\nTake profitsin positions that have been big winners(Rebalancing overbought or extended positions to capture gains but continue to participate in the advance.)\nSell laggardsand losers.(If something isn’t working in a market melt-up, it most likely won’t work during a broad decline. Better to eliminate the risk early.)\nRaise cashand rebalance portfolios to target weightings.(Rebalancing risk on a regular basis keeps hidden risks somewhat mitigated.)\n\nNotice, nothing in there says,“sell everything and go to cash.”\nThere will be a time to raise significant levels of cash. A good portfolio management strategy will automatically ensure that“stop-loss”levels get triggered, exposure decreases, and cash levels rise when the selling begins.\nWhile it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent“this time is different.”\nIt likely isn’t.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3401,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":863124815,"gmtCreate":1632366408837,"gmtModify":1632800873664,"author":{"id":"3583806200035507","authorId":"3583806200035507","name":"HuiBing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583806200035507","idStr":"3583806200035507"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/863124815","repostId":"2169650271","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2144,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":860551151,"gmtCreate":1632190579273,"gmtModify":1632802174069,"author":{"id":"3583806200035507","authorId":"3583806200035507","name":"HuiBing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583806200035507","idStr":"3583806200035507"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/860551151","repostId":"1163068688","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3268,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":860314116,"gmtCreate":1632135195535,"gmtModify":1632802628920,"author":{"id":"3583806200035507","authorId":"3583806200035507","name":"HuiBing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583806200035507","idStr":"3583806200035507"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/860314116","repostId":"1194891884","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1194891884","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632091615,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1194891884?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-20 06:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nike, Costco, FedEx, Salesforce, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>耐克、好市多、联邦快递、Salesforce和其他本周值得投资者关注的股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194891884","media":"Barrons","summary":"The main event this week will be the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting. Investors will also","content":"<p>The main event this week will be the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting. Investors will also be watching for several corporate earnings releases, investor days, and the latest economic data.</p><p><blockquote>本周重头戏将是美联储9月政策会议。投资者还将关注几家公司的财报发布、投资者日和最新的经济数据。</blockquote></p><p> Lennar reports quarterly earnings on Monday, followed by results from Adobe, AutoZone, and FedEx on Tuesday. General Mills goes on Wednesday, then Nike, Accenture, Costco Wholesale, and Darden Restaurants report&nbsp;on Thursday. Investor days this week include&nbsp;Biogen on Tuesday,&nbsp;Weyerhaeuser on Wednesday, and&nbsp;Salesforce.com on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>Lennar将于周一公布季度收益，随后Adobe、AutoZone和FedEx将于周二公布业绩。通用磨坊周三上市，然后耐克、埃森哲、好市多批发和达顿餐厅周四上市。本周的投资者日包括周二的Biogen、周三的Weyerhaeuser和周四的Salesforce。</blockquote></p><p> The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee meets on Tuesday and Wednesday this week. The central bank is unlikely&nbsp;to change its target interest rate range, but could give an update on its plans to begin reducing its monthly asset purchases. Wednesday afternoon’s&nbsp;press conference with Fed chair Jerome Powell will be closely&nbsp;watched.</p><p><blockquote>美联储货币政策委员会将于本周周二和周三召开会议。央行不太可能改变其目标利率区间，但可能会更新其开始减少每月资产购买的计划。周三下午美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的新闻发布会将受到密切关注。</blockquote></p><p> Economic data out this week include the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index for August on Thursday. There will also be several updates on the U.S. housing market including the National Association of Home Builders’ Housing Market Index for September on Monday, the Census Bureau’s new residential construction data for August on Tuesday, and the National Association of Realtors’&nbsp;existing-home sales for August on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>本周公布的经济数据包括周四公布的世界大型企业联合会8月份领先经济指数。美国房地产市场还将发布多项更新，包括周一全国住宅建筑商协会9月份住房市场指数、周二人口普查局8月份新住宅建设数据以及全国房地产经纪人协会现房销售数据。周三八月。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Monday 9/20</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期一9/20</b></blockquote></p><p> Lennar reports third-quarter fiscal-2021 results.</p><p><blockquote>Lennar报告2021财年第三季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> Merck presents data on its portfolio of cancer drugs, in conjunction with the European Society for Medical Oncology’s 2021 Congress.</p><p><blockquote>默克公司在欧洲肿瘤内科学会2021年大会上展示了其癌症药物组合的数据。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The National Association</b>&nbsp;of Home Builders releases its Housing Market Index for September. Economists forecast a 73 reading, two points below August’s figure, which was the lowest in more than a year.</p><p><blockquote><b>全国协会</b>房屋建筑商协会发布了9月份的房地产市场指数。经济学家预测为73，比8月份的数据低两个百分点，这是一年多来的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tuesday 9/21</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二9/21</b></blockquote></p><p> Adobe, AutoZone, and FedEx release earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Adobe、AutoZone和FedEx发布财报。</blockquote></p><p> Biogen hosts an investor day to discuss its pipeline of neuroscience therapeutics.</p><p><blockquote>百健(Biogen)举办投资者日活动，讨论其神经科学治疗产品线。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau</b>&nbsp;reports on new residential construction for August. Consensus estimate is for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.55 million housing starts, 1% higher than the July level. Housing starts are down from their post–financial crisis peak of 1.725 million, reached in March of this year.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>八月份新住宅建设报告。市场普遍估计，经季节调整后的新屋开工年率为155万套，比7月份的水平高出1%。新屋开工量较今年3月达到的金融危机后172.5万套的峰值有所下降。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wednesday 9/22</b></p><p><blockquote><b>9/22星期三</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The FOMC announces</b>&nbsp;its monetary-policy decision. The Federal Reserve is likely to keep the federal-funds rate unchanged at near zero, but might signal that it will pare its asset purchases later this year.</p><p><blockquote><b>FOMC宣布</b>它的货币政策决定。美联储可能会将联邦基金利率维持在接近零的水平不变，但可能会暗示将在今年晚些时候削减资产购买。</blockquote></p><p> General Mills reports first-quarter fiscal-2022 results.</p><p><blockquote>通用磨坊公布2022财年第一季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> Boston Scientific,Weyerhaeuser, and&nbsp;Yum China Holdings&nbsp;host their 2021 investor days.</p><p><blockquote>波士顿科学、惠好和百胜中国控股举办2021年投资者日。</blockquote></p><p> <b>TheBank of Japan</b>&nbsp;announces its monetary-policy decision. The BOJ is widely expected to keep its key short-term interest rate unchanged at minus 0.1%, as Tokyo and other regions remain in a state of emergency through the end of September due to the Covid-19 Delta variant.</p><p><blockquote><b>日本银行</b>宣布其货币政策决定。市场普遍预计日本央行将把关键短期利率维持在负0.1%不变，因为由于Covid-19德尔塔变异毒株，东京都和其他地区在9月底之前仍处于紧急状态。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The National Association</b>&nbsp;of Realtors reports existing-home sales for August. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 578,000 homes sold, down 3.5%&nbsp;from July’s 599,000.</p><p><blockquote><b>全国协会</b>房地产经纪人报告8月份现房销售情况。预计经季节调整后的房屋销售量为578,000套，比7月份的599,000套下降3.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Thursday 9/23</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四9/23</b></blockquote></p><p> Accenture, Costco Wholesale, Darden Restaurants, and Nike hold conference calls to discuss their quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>Accenture、Costco Wholesale、Darden Restaurants和Nike在评级召开会议讨论季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> Salesforce.com holds its 2021 investor day. CEO Marc Benioff and Slack CEO Stewart Butterfield will be among the participants. Salesforce completed its $28 billion acquisition of Slack this summer.</p><p><blockquote>Salesforce.com举办2021年投资者日。首席执行官马克·贝尼奥夫和Slack首席执行官斯图尔特·巴特菲尔德将是参与者之一。Salesforce今年夏天完成了对Slack的280亿美元收购。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Conference Board</b>&nbsp;releases its Leading Economic Index for August. Economists forecast a 0.5% month-over-month rise, after a 0.9% increase in July. The Conference Board currently projects 6% gross-domestic-product growth for 2021, and 4% for 2022.</p><p><blockquote><b>世界大型企业联合会</b>发布8月份领先经济指数。经济学家预测环比增长0.5%，7月份增长0.9%。世界大型企业联合会目前预计2021年国内生产总值增长6%，2022年增长4%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Friday 9/24</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期五9/24</b></blockquote></p><p> Kansas City Southernhosts a special shareholder meeting to vote on a proposed merger withCanadian Pacific Railway.</p><p><blockquote>堪萨斯城南方铁路公司召开特别股东大会，就与加拿大太平洋铁路公司的合并提案进行投票。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nike, Costco, FedEx, Salesforce, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>耐克、好市多、联邦快递、Salesforce和其他本周值得投资者关注的股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNike, Costco, FedEx, Salesforce, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>耐克、好市多、联邦快递、Salesforce和其他本周值得投资者关注的股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-20 06:46</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The main event this week will be the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting. Investors will also be watching for several corporate earnings releases, investor days, and the latest economic data.</p><p><blockquote>本周重头戏将是美联储9月政策会议。投资者还将关注几家公司的财报发布、投资者日和最新的经济数据。</blockquote></p><p> Lennar reports quarterly earnings on Monday, followed by results from Adobe, AutoZone, and FedEx on Tuesday. General Mills goes on Wednesday, then Nike, Accenture, Costco Wholesale, and Darden Restaurants report&nbsp;on Thursday. Investor days this week include&nbsp;Biogen on Tuesday,&nbsp;Weyerhaeuser on Wednesday, and&nbsp;Salesforce.com on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>Lennar将于周一公布季度收益，随后Adobe、AutoZone和FedEx将于周二公布业绩。通用磨坊周三上市，然后耐克、埃森哲、好市多批发和达顿餐厅周四上市。本周的投资者日包括周二的Biogen、周三的Weyerhaeuser和周四的Salesforce。</blockquote></p><p> The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee meets on Tuesday and Wednesday this week. The central bank is unlikely&nbsp;to change its target interest rate range, but could give an update on its plans to begin reducing its monthly asset purchases. Wednesday afternoon’s&nbsp;press conference with Fed chair Jerome Powell will be closely&nbsp;watched.</p><p><blockquote>美联储货币政策委员会将于本周周二和周三召开会议。央行不太可能改变其目标利率区间，但可能会更新其开始减少每月资产购买的计划。周三下午美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的新闻发布会将受到密切关注。</blockquote></p><p> Economic data out this week include the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index for August on Thursday. There will also be several updates on the U.S. housing market including the National Association of Home Builders’ Housing Market Index for September on Monday, the Census Bureau’s new residential construction data for August on Tuesday, and the National Association of Realtors’&nbsp;existing-home sales for August on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>本周公布的经济数据包括周四公布的世界大型企业联合会8月份领先经济指数。美国房地产市场还将发布多项更新，包括周一全国住宅建筑商协会9月份住房市场指数、周二人口普查局8月份新住宅建设数据以及全国房地产经纪人协会现房销售数据。周三八月。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Monday 9/20</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期一9/20</b></blockquote></p><p> Lennar reports third-quarter fiscal-2021 results.</p><p><blockquote>Lennar报告2021财年第三季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> Merck presents data on its portfolio of cancer drugs, in conjunction with the European Society for Medical Oncology’s 2021 Congress.</p><p><blockquote>默克公司在欧洲肿瘤内科学会2021年大会上展示了其癌症药物组合的数据。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The National Association</b>&nbsp;of Home Builders releases its Housing Market Index for September. Economists forecast a 73 reading, two points below August’s figure, which was the lowest in more than a year.</p><p><blockquote><b>全国协会</b>房屋建筑商协会发布了9月份的房地产市场指数。经济学家预测为73，比8月份的数据低两个百分点，这是一年多来的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tuesday 9/21</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二9/21</b></blockquote></p><p> Adobe, AutoZone, and FedEx release earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Adobe、AutoZone和FedEx发布财报。</blockquote></p><p> Biogen hosts an investor day to discuss its pipeline of neuroscience therapeutics.</p><p><blockquote>百健(Biogen)举办投资者日活动，讨论其神经科学治疗产品线。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau</b>&nbsp;reports on new residential construction for August. Consensus estimate is for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.55 million housing starts, 1% higher than the July level. Housing starts are down from their post–financial crisis peak of 1.725 million, reached in March of this year.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>八月份新住宅建设报告。市场普遍估计，经季节调整后的新屋开工年率为155万套，比7月份的水平高出1%。新屋开工量较今年3月达到的金融危机后172.5万套的峰值有所下降。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wednesday 9/22</b></p><p><blockquote><b>9/22星期三</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The FOMC announces</b>&nbsp;its monetary-policy decision. The Federal Reserve is likely to keep the federal-funds rate unchanged at near zero, but might signal that it will pare its asset purchases later this year.</p><p><blockquote><b>FOMC宣布</b>它的货币政策决定。美联储可能会将联邦基金利率维持在接近零的水平不变，但可能会暗示将在今年晚些时候削减资产购买。</blockquote></p><p> General Mills reports first-quarter fiscal-2022 results.</p><p><blockquote>通用磨坊公布2022财年第一季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> Boston Scientific,Weyerhaeuser, and&nbsp;Yum China Holdings&nbsp;host their 2021 investor days.</p><p><blockquote>波士顿科学、惠好和百胜中国控股举办2021年投资者日。</blockquote></p><p> <b>TheBank of Japan</b>&nbsp;announces its monetary-policy decision. The BOJ is widely expected to keep its key short-term interest rate unchanged at minus 0.1%, as Tokyo and other regions remain in a state of emergency through the end of September due to the Covid-19 Delta variant.</p><p><blockquote><b>日本银行</b>宣布其货币政策决定。市场普遍预计日本央行将把关键短期利率维持在负0.1%不变，因为由于Covid-19德尔塔变异毒株，东京都和其他地区在9月底之前仍处于紧急状态。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The National Association</b>&nbsp;of Realtors reports existing-home sales for August. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 578,000 homes sold, down 3.5%&nbsp;from July’s 599,000.</p><p><blockquote><b>全国协会</b>房地产经纪人报告8月份现房销售情况。预计经季节调整后的房屋销售量为578,000套，比7月份的599,000套下降3.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Thursday 9/23</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四9/23</b></blockquote></p><p> Accenture, Costco Wholesale, Darden Restaurants, and Nike hold conference calls to discuss their quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>Accenture、Costco Wholesale、Darden Restaurants和Nike在评级召开会议讨论季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> Salesforce.com holds its 2021 investor day. CEO Marc Benioff and Slack CEO Stewart Butterfield will be among the participants. Salesforce completed its $28 billion acquisition of Slack this summer.</p><p><blockquote>Salesforce.com举办2021年投资者日。首席执行官马克·贝尼奥夫和Slack首席执行官斯图尔特·巴特菲尔德将是参与者之一。Salesforce今年夏天完成了对Slack的280亿美元收购。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Conference Board</b>&nbsp;releases its Leading Economic Index for August. Economists forecast a 0.5% month-over-month rise, after a 0.9% increase in July. The Conference Board currently projects 6% gross-domestic-product growth for 2021, and 4% for 2022.</p><p><blockquote><b>世界大型企业联合会</b>发布8月份领先经济指数。经济学家预测环比增长0.5%，7月份增长0.9%。世界大型企业联合会目前预计2021年国内生产总值增长6%，2022年增长4%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Friday 9/24</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期五9/24</b></blockquote></p><p> Kansas City Southernhosts a special shareholder meeting to vote on a proposed merger withCanadian Pacific Railway.</p><p><blockquote>堪萨斯城南方铁路公司召开特别股东大会，就与加拿大太平洋铁路公司的合并提案进行投票。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/nike-costco-fedex-salesforce-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51632078208?mod=hp_LEAD_2\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ADBE":"Adobe",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","NKE":"耐克","FDX":"联邦快递","COST":"好市多","CRM":"赛富时",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/nike-costco-fedex-salesforce-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51632078208?mod=hp_LEAD_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1194891884","content_text":"The main event this week will be the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting. Investors will also be watching for several corporate earnings releases, investor days, and the latest economic data.\nLennar reports quarterly earnings on Monday, followed by results from Adobe, AutoZone, and FedEx on Tuesday. General Mills goes on Wednesday, then Nike, Accenture, Costco Wholesale, and Darden Restaurants report on Thursday. Investor days this week include Biogen on Tuesday, Weyerhaeuser on Wednesday, and Salesforce.com on Thursday.\nThe Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee meets on Tuesday and Wednesday this week. The central bank is unlikely to change its target interest rate range, but could give an update on its plans to begin reducing its monthly asset purchases. Wednesday afternoon’s press conference with Fed chair Jerome Powell will be closely watched.\nEconomic data out this week include the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index for August on Thursday. There will also be several updates on the U.S. housing market including the National Association of Home Builders’ Housing Market Index for September on Monday, the Census Bureau’s new residential construction data for August on Tuesday, and the National Association of Realtors’ existing-home sales for August on Wednesday.\nMonday 9/20\nLennar reports third-quarter fiscal-2021 results.\nMerck presents data on its portfolio of cancer drugs, in conjunction with the European Society for Medical Oncology’s 2021 Congress.\nThe National Association of Home Builders releases its Housing Market Index for September. Economists forecast a 73 reading, two points below August’s figure, which was the lowest in more than a year.\nTuesday 9/21\nAdobe, AutoZone, and FedEx release earnings.\nBiogen hosts an investor day to discuss its pipeline of neuroscience therapeutics.\nThe Census Bureau reports on new residential construction for August. Consensus estimate is for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.55 million housing starts, 1% higher than the July level. Housing starts are down from their post–financial crisis peak of 1.725 million, reached in March of this year.\nWednesday 9/22\nThe FOMC announces its monetary-policy decision. The Federal Reserve is likely to keep the federal-funds rate unchanged at near zero, but might signal that it will pare its asset purchases later this year.\nGeneral Mills reports first-quarter fiscal-2022 results.\nBoston Scientific,Weyerhaeuser, and Yum China Holdings host their 2021 investor days.\nTheBank of Japan announces its monetary-policy decision. The BOJ is widely expected to keep its key short-term interest rate unchanged at minus 0.1%, as Tokyo and other regions remain in a state of emergency through the end of September due to the Covid-19 Delta variant.\nThe National Association of Realtors reports existing-home sales for August. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 578,000 homes sold, down 3.5% from July’s 599,000.\nThursday 9/23\nAccenture, Costco Wholesale, Darden Restaurants, and Nike hold conference calls to discuss their quarterly results.\nSalesforce.com holds its 2021 investor day. CEO Marc Benioff and Slack CEO Stewart Butterfield will be among the participants. Salesforce completed its $28 billion acquisition of Slack this summer.\nThe Conference Board releases its Leading Economic Index for August. Economists forecast a 0.5% month-over-month rise, after a 0.9% increase in July. The Conference Board currently projects 6% gross-domestic-product growth for 2021, and 4% for 2022.\nFriday 9/24\nKansas City Southernhosts a special shareholder meeting to vote on a proposed merger withCanadian Pacific Railway.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CRM":0.9,"COST":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"ADBE":0.9,"FDX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"NKE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3367,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":881531768,"gmtCreate":1631359550054,"gmtModify":1631891625322,"author":{"id":"3583806200035507","authorId":"3583806200035507","name":"HuiBing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583806200035507","idStr":"3583806200035507"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/881531768","repostId":"1147045390","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147045390","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631321547,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1147045390?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-11 08:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Apple’s Risk Is Limited<blockquote>为什么苹果的风险有限</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147045390","media":"Barrons","summary":"Apple faces real, but limited, risk to its revenue and profits from Friday’s ruling that requires it to allow developers to offer alternative payment methods for purchases made in apps downloaded through the Apple app store.In a case filed by Fortnite publisher Epic Games, U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers issued a permanent injunction that requires Apple  to allow developers the option to include links to alternative payment methods in their apps. Apple’s own payment system takes a 30%","content":"<p>Apple faces real, but limited, risk to its revenue and profits from Friday’s ruling that requires it to allow developers to offer alternative payment methods for purchases made in apps downloaded through the Apple app store.</p><p><blockquote>周五的裁决要求苹果允许开发者为通过苹果应用商店下载的应用程序中的购买提供替代支付方式，这给其收入和利润带来了真实但有限的风险。</blockquote></p><p> In a case filed by Fortnite publisher Epic Games, U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers issued a permanent injunction that requires Apple (ticker: AAPL) to allow developers the option to include links to alternative payment methods in their apps. Apple’s own payment system takes a 30% cut from large developers.</p><p><blockquote>在堡垒之夜发行商Epic Games提起的案件中，美国地区法官Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers发布了一项永久禁令，要求苹果（股票代码：AAPL）允许开发者选择在其应用程序中包含替代支付方式的链接。苹果自己的支付系统从大型开发商那里收取30%的提成。</blockquote></p><p> Data from the app tracker SensorTower shows that in calendar 2020, Apple had overall revenue from the App Store of $72.3 billion, generating an estimated $21.7 billion in fees, or about 7% of Apple’s overall revenues. That includes $21 billion in spending in the U.S., generating about $6.3 billion in fees, or about 2% of annualized revenues.</p><p><blockquote>应用追踪器SensorTower的数据显示，2020年，苹果从App Store获得的总收入为723亿美元，产生的费用估计为217亿美元，约占苹果总收入的7%。其中包括在美国的210亿美元支出，产生约63亿美元的费用，约占年收入的2%。</blockquote></p><p> SensorTower estimates that mobile-game spending in the App Store in calendar 2020 was $47.6 billion, generating $14.3 billion in fees, or a little under 5% of Apple’s total revenues.</p><p><blockquote>SensorTower估计，2020年App Store中的手机游戏支出为476亿美元，产生143亿美元的费用，略低于苹果总收入的5%。</blockquote></p><p> Gene Munster, managing director of the venture firm Loup Capital and a former sell-side analyst with a long history of tracking Apple, estimated that the App Store accounts for about 14% of the company’s profits. But he sees limited risk from Friday’s ruling.</p><p><blockquote>风险投资公司Loup Capital董事总经理、长期跟踪苹果的前卖方分析师吉恩·蒙斯特(Gene Munster)估计，App Store约占该公司利润的14%。但他认为周五裁决的风险有限。</blockquote></p><p> Munster thinks most app developers will stay inside of the Apple system. He sees “at most” a 2% headwind to overall revenue, and a potential 4% hit to profits.</p><p><blockquote>蒙斯特认为大多数应用程序开发人员将留在苹果系统内。他认为整体收入“最多”会受到2%的阻力，利润可能会受到4%的打击。</blockquote></p><p> “After the first year of these changes, app store growth rates will return to normal,” he said. “Bottom line, it’s at most a one-year headwind and does not change the big picture of where Apple is going over the next 5 years.”</p><p><blockquote>“在这些变化的第一年之后，app store的增长率将恢复正常，”他说。“最重要的是，这最多是一年的逆风，不会改变苹果未来5年的发展方向。”</blockquote></p><p> Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani said in a research note that the ruling is a setback for Apple, but that the eventual impact is likely to be manageable, given Apple has alternative ways to generate revenue from the store, including its growing in-store ad business. And he noted that Apple actually got a win on a bigger issue in the case: The judge rejected Epic’s assertion that the App Store is an illegal monopoly. Daryanani estimated the risk to Apple’s per-share earnings at 2% to 4%.</p><p><blockquote>Evercore ISI分析师Amit Daryanani在一份研究报告中表示，这一裁决对苹果来说是一次挫折，但鉴于苹果有其他方式从商店创收，包括其不断增长的店内广告业务，最终的影响可能是可控的。他指出，苹果实际上在该案中的一个更大问题上取得了胜利：法官驳回了Epic关于App Store是非法垄断的主张。Daryanani估计苹果每股收益面临的风险为2%至4%。</blockquote></p><p> Wedbush analyst Dan Ives told&nbsp;<i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;he thinks the worst-case scenario is a 3% to 4% hit to revenues, describing the risk as a “rounding error.” While Ives said the Street had expected an across-the-board win for Apple, the mixed decision removes an overhang on the stock and that investors are likely relieved to put the issue to rest.</p><p><blockquote>Wedbush分析师Dan Ives告诉<i>巴伦周刊</i>他认为最坏的情况是收入受到3%至4%的打击，并将这种风险描述为“舍入误差”。虽然Ives表示，华尔街原本预计苹果会全面获胜，但这一喜忧参半的决定消除了该股的悬念，投资者可能会因为解决这个问题而松一口气。</blockquote></p><p> The ruling is more a positive for companies like&nbsp;Spotify Technology&nbsp;and&nbsp;Match Group&nbsp;than it is a negative for Apple, he said. Apple stock fell 3.3% to $148.97&nbsp;on&nbsp;Friday, while Spotify and March gained 0.7% and&nbsp;4.2%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，这一裁决对Spotify Technology和Match Group等公司来说更多的是积极的，而不是对苹果的负面影响。苹果股价周五下跌3.3%，至148.97美元，Spotify和March分别上涨0.7%和4.</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Apple’s Risk Is Limited<blockquote>为什么苹果的风险有限</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Apple’s Risk Is Limited<blockquote>为什么苹果的风险有限</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-11 08:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple faces real, but limited, risk to its revenue and profits from Friday’s ruling that requires it to allow developers to offer alternative payment methods for purchases made in apps downloaded through the Apple app store.</p><p><blockquote>周五的裁决要求苹果允许开发者为通过苹果应用商店下载的应用程序中的购买提供替代支付方式，这给其收入和利润带来了真实但有限的风险。</blockquote></p><p> In a case filed by Fortnite publisher Epic Games, U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers issued a permanent injunction that requires Apple (ticker: AAPL) to allow developers the option to include links to alternative payment methods in their apps. Apple’s own payment system takes a 30% cut from large developers.</p><p><blockquote>在堡垒之夜发行商Epic Games提起的案件中，美国地区法官Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers发布了一项永久禁令，要求苹果（股票代码：AAPL）允许开发者选择在其应用程序中包含替代支付方式的链接。苹果自己的支付系统从大型开发商那里收取30%的提成。</blockquote></p><p> Data from the app tracker SensorTower shows that in calendar 2020, Apple had overall revenue from the App Store of $72.3 billion, generating an estimated $21.7 billion in fees, or about 7% of Apple’s overall revenues. That includes $21 billion in spending in the U.S., generating about $6.3 billion in fees, or about 2% of annualized revenues.</p><p><blockquote>应用追踪器SensorTower的数据显示，2020年，苹果从App Store获得的总收入为723亿美元，产生的费用估计为217亿美元，约占苹果总收入的7%。其中包括在美国的210亿美元支出，产生约63亿美元的费用，约占年收入的2%。</blockquote></p><p> SensorTower estimates that mobile-game spending in the App Store in calendar 2020 was $47.6 billion, generating $14.3 billion in fees, or a little under 5% of Apple’s total revenues.</p><p><blockquote>SensorTower估计，2020年App Store中的手机游戏支出为476亿美元，产生143亿美元的费用，略低于苹果总收入的5%。</blockquote></p><p> Gene Munster, managing director of the venture firm Loup Capital and a former sell-side analyst with a long history of tracking Apple, estimated that the App Store accounts for about 14% of the company’s profits. But he sees limited risk from Friday’s ruling.</p><p><blockquote>风险投资公司Loup Capital董事总经理、长期跟踪苹果的前卖方分析师吉恩·蒙斯特(Gene Munster)估计，App Store约占该公司利润的14%。但他认为周五裁决的风险有限。</blockquote></p><p> Munster thinks most app developers will stay inside of the Apple system. He sees “at most” a 2% headwind to overall revenue, and a potential 4% hit to profits.</p><p><blockquote>蒙斯特认为大多数应用程序开发人员将留在苹果系统内。他认为整体收入“最多”会受到2%的阻力，利润可能会受到4%的打击。</blockquote></p><p> “After the first year of these changes, app store growth rates will return to normal,” he said. “Bottom line, it’s at most a one-year headwind and does not change the big picture of where Apple is going over the next 5 years.”</p><p><blockquote>“在这些变化的第一年之后，app store的增长率将恢复正常，”他说。“最重要的是，这最多是一年的逆风，不会改变苹果未来5年的发展方向。”</blockquote></p><p> Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani said in a research note that the ruling is a setback for Apple, but that the eventual impact is likely to be manageable, given Apple has alternative ways to generate revenue from the store, including its growing in-store ad business. And he noted that Apple actually got a win on a bigger issue in the case: The judge rejected Epic’s assertion that the App Store is an illegal monopoly. Daryanani estimated the risk to Apple’s per-share earnings at 2% to 4%.</p><p><blockquote>Evercore ISI分析师Amit Daryanani在一份研究报告中表示，这一裁决对苹果来说是一次挫折，但鉴于苹果有其他方式从商店创收，包括其不断增长的店内广告业务，最终的影响可能是可控的。他指出，苹果实际上在该案中的一个更大问题上取得了胜利：法官驳回了Epic关于App Store是非法垄断的主张。Daryanani估计苹果每股收益面临的风险为2%至4%。</blockquote></p><p> Wedbush analyst Dan Ives told&nbsp;<i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;he thinks the worst-case scenario is a 3% to 4% hit to revenues, describing the risk as a “rounding error.” While Ives said the Street had expected an across-the-board win for Apple, the mixed decision removes an overhang on the stock and that investors are likely relieved to put the issue to rest.</p><p><blockquote>Wedbush分析师Dan Ives告诉<i>巴伦周刊</i>他认为最坏的情况是收入受到3%至4%的打击，并将这种风险描述为“舍入误差”。虽然Ives表示，华尔街原本预计苹果会全面获胜，但这一喜忧参半的决定消除了该股的悬念，投资者可能会因为解决这个问题而松一口气。</blockquote></p><p> The ruling is more a positive for companies like&nbsp;Spotify Technology&nbsp;and&nbsp;Match Group&nbsp;than it is a negative for Apple, he said. Apple stock fell 3.3% to $148.97&nbsp;on&nbsp;Friday, while Spotify and March gained 0.7% and&nbsp;4.2%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，这一裁决对Spotify Technology和Match Group等公司来说更多的是积极的，而不是对苹果的负面影响。苹果股价周五下跌3.3%，至148.97美元，Spotify和March分别上涨0.7%和4.</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-app-store-epic-51631304007?mod=hp_LEAD_1_B_2\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-app-store-epic-51631304007?mod=hp_LEAD_1_B_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147045390","content_text":"Apple faces real, but limited, risk to its revenue and profits from Friday’s ruling that requires it to allow developers to offer alternative payment methods for purchases made in apps downloaded through the Apple app store.\nIn a case filed by Fortnite publisher Epic Games, U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers issued a permanent injunction that requires Apple (ticker: AAPL) to allow developers the option to include links to alternative payment methods in their apps. Apple’s own payment system takes a 30% cut from large developers.\nData from the app tracker SensorTower shows that in calendar 2020, Apple had overall revenue from the App Store of $72.3 billion, generating an estimated $21.7 billion in fees, or about 7% of Apple’s overall revenues. That includes $21 billion in spending in the U.S., generating about $6.3 billion in fees, or about 2% of annualized revenues.\nSensorTower estimates that mobile-game spending in the App Store in calendar 2020 was $47.6 billion, generating $14.3 billion in fees, or a little under 5% of Apple’s total revenues.\nGene Munster, managing director of the venture firm Loup Capital and a former sell-side analyst with a long history of tracking Apple, estimated that the App Store accounts for about 14% of the company’s profits. But he sees limited risk from Friday’s ruling.\nMunster thinks most app developers will stay inside of the Apple system. He sees “at most” a 2% headwind to overall revenue, and a potential 4% hit to profits.\n“After the first year of these changes, app store growth rates will return to normal,” he said. “Bottom line, it’s at most a one-year headwind and does not change the big picture of where Apple is going over the next 5 years.”\nEvercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani said in a research note that the ruling is a setback for Apple, but that the eventual impact is likely to be manageable, given Apple has alternative ways to generate revenue from the store, including its growing in-store ad business. And he noted that Apple actually got a win on a bigger issue in the case: The judge rejected Epic’s assertion that the App Store is an illegal monopoly. Daryanani estimated the risk to Apple’s per-share earnings at 2% to 4%.\nWedbush analyst Dan Ives told Barron’s he thinks the worst-case scenario is a 3% to 4% hit to revenues, describing the risk as a “rounding error.” While Ives said the Street had expected an across-the-board win for Apple, the mixed decision removes an overhang on the stock and that investors are likely relieved to put the issue to rest.\nThe ruling is more a positive for companies like Spotify Technology and Match Group than it is a negative for Apple, he said. Apple stock fell 3.3% to $148.97 on Friday, while Spotify and March gained 0.7% and 4.2%, respectively.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2328,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":880442106,"gmtCreate":1631076191505,"gmtModify":1631891625331,"author":{"id":"3583806200035507","authorId":"3583806200035507","name":"HuiBing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583806200035507","idStr":"3583806200035507"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880442106","repostId":"1143120804","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143120804","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631072080,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1143120804?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-08 11:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143120804","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth ra","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.</li>  <li>While growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.</li>  <li>AWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.</li>  <li>We revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2ca0bbeb0cb7be66a257f4e9d5f5fa1\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>公司2020年收入增长超出我们预期，我们将其增长率预测修正为15.8%。</li><li>尽管在经历了强劲活动的辉煌一年后，增长正在放缓，但该公司仍有望从电子商务转变中受益，预计零售渗透率为22%。</li><li>在可预见的未来，AWS预计仍将是第一大市场领导者。</li><li>我们使用DCF分析修改了估值，从3,358.73美元获得了4,303.18美元的新目标价。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>4kodiak/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since our previous&nbsp;coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.</p><p><blockquote>自我们上次报道以来，亚马逊公司(AMZN)的股价已上涨26%，超出了我们24.5%的收入增长预期，并在2020年底上涨了37.6%，其在线零售业务增长了40%，达到近2000亿美元，第三方服务800亿美元。在本次分析中，我们重新审视了其主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方服务和AWS。</blockquote></p><p> Despite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3&nbsp;guidance&nbsp;of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.</p><p><blockquote>尽管第二季度网上商店销售额增长疲软13%，第三季度同比指引中点疲软13%，表明增长正常化的迹象，但电子商务市场的长期增长前景仍然具有吸引力。亚马逊已确立市场地位的在线零售。随着越来越多的消费者将购买行为转移到网上，预计到2023年，电子商务的份额将从2020年的18%达到22%。我们相信，亚马逊稳固的市场地位、作为忠实客户的庞大Prime会员基础以及坚实的物流和运输网络为其提供了优势，正如其与第三方卖家的电子商务市场的崛起所证明的那样。此外，在可预见的未来，其云业务预计仍将是云基础设施市场的市场领导者，持续致力于增长并以不断增长的数据量为基础。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a78658eabc40ec60c6713019d6f800c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Amazon</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：亚马逊</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>E-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>尽管增长正常化，电子商务销售前景仍然有吸引力</b></blockquote></p><p> Amazon's online store&nbsp;sales&nbsp;have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊的在线商店销售额在2020年从上一年的14.8%飙升了40%，因为它受益于对实体零售商的长期封锁和限制，加速了向电子商务的采用。然而，尽管2021年第二季度在线商店增长同比放缓13%，而第一季度为41%，但我们相信该公司将继续受益于电子商务采用率不断上升的长期推动力。</blockquote></p><p> According to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to&nbsp;reach&nbsp;22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.</p><p><blockquote>根据eMarketer的数据，随着消费者继续转向在线购买，电子商务销售额的份额预计将达到全球零售额的22%。随着全球疫苗接种运动和商业限制的放松，全球零售额预计将反弹7.2%。因此，2021年电子商务销售额预测为10.2%，较2019年的27.6%实现正常化增长，渗透率从去年的14%飙升至18%。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Global E-Commerce Market ($ bln)</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>全球电子商务市场（十亿美元）</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2016</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2016</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2017</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2017</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2018</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2018</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2019</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2019</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2020</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2020</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2021F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2021F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2022F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2022F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2023F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2023F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Total Global Retail Sales ('a')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>全球零售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21,453</p><p><blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22,904</p><p><blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>23,560</p><p><blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>24,780</p><p><blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>23,778</p><p><blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25,490</p><p><blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27,172</p><p><blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>28,395</p><p><blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-4.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.20%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.60%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.50%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1,845</p><p><blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,382</p><p><blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,982</p><p><blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>3,354</p><p><blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,280</p><p><blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,716</p><p><blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5,434</p><p><blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6,247</p><p><blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>29.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>12.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Penetration Rate ('c')</b></p><p><blockquote><tr><td><b>渗透率（“c”）</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10%</p><p><blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>12%</p><p><blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14%</p><p><blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>18%</p><p><blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19%</p><p><blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20%</p><p><blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22%</p><p><blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>* B = C x A</i></p><p><blockquote><i>*B=C x A</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：Statista、eMarketer、Khaveen Investments</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Amazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US&nbsp;population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊既定的市场定位是其利用市场增长的额外竞争优势。更具体地说，很难在价格、选择和便利性等关键标准上赢得公司的支持。显然，该公司的Prime会员在2020年继续增长15%，达到1.425亿会员，约占美国人口的43%。这表明忠实客户对该公司具有强大的吸引力，为其提供了庞大的安装基础。通过Prime会员，也推动消费者购买更多，以获得各种福利。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125c2baa1b52e2787075210f05321e20\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"492\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Backlinko</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Backlinko</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently&nbsp;attract&nbsp;sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.</p><p><blockquote>除了Prime会员之外，该公司还能够持续吸引卖家到其平台，自2017年以来新增卖家330万人，即每天3,718人。目前，它在美国、英国、德国、日本等地拥有970万卖家。因此，该公司已确立了自己作为市场主导者的地位，并在电子商务销售方面远远领先于第二接近的竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6272ba7ee8cf6f5aab477b8425f34923\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Marketing Charts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：营销图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Its market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer &amp; consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel &amp; accessories, books music &amp; video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.</p><p><blockquote>如下表所示，其在不同产品类别和市场中的市场领导地位相当广泛。例如，其消费品和消费电子产品销售额是最大的产品类别，占美国电子商务总销售额的50.2%，占零售总额的26.7%。其次是服装和配饰、书籍、音乐和视频以及家具和家居用品，分别占电子商务销售额的32%、83.2%和34.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6765530fd408a02c75515a712af4087\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"725\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: eMarketer</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：eMarketer</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Among the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having&nbsp;purchased&nbsp;electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software&nbsp;updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker&nbsp;units&nbsp;and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average&nbsp;price&nbsp;of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.</p><p><blockquote>在产品类别中，电子产品类别最受美国购物者欢迎，44%的美国购物者在亚马逊上购买过电子产品。它还销售自己的电子设备，包括Echo智能扬声器，占美国市场份额的70%，其次是谷歌(GOOG)和苹果(AAPL)，并继续通过新一代产品和软件更新来开发该产品。2020年，该公司智能音箱出货量超过3800万台，占全球出货量市场份额的28.3%。根据Echo产品系列103美元的平均价格，我们估计其智能扬声器销售收入约为39.4亿美元，约占其在线商店收入的2%。然而，它也面临着日益激烈的竞争，尤其是来自主导中国市场的百度（BIDU）和小米（OTCPK：XIACF）等中国制造商的竞争。</blockquote></p><p> All in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln&nbsp;products&nbsp;excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，该公司拥有1200万种产品，不包括书籍、媒体、葡萄酒和服务，随着卖家基础的不断增长，我们预计这一产品广度将继续扩大，并通过产品多样性为客户提供独特的价值主张。</blockquote></p><p> Thus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们预计其拥有稳固的市场主导地位，拥有成熟的客户群和忠诚的Prime会员生态系统，以及在各种关键产品类别中拥有广泛的市场领导地位和广泛的产品广度的庞大卖家基础，以支持其长期增长。我们预测其在线商店增长是基于我们对其市场份额的预期（基于全球电子商务销售额的5年平均值）为4.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Amazon Online Stores ($ bln)</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>亚马逊在线商店（十亿美元）</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2016</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2016</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2017</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2017</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2018</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2018</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2019</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2019</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2020</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2020</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2021F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2021F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2022F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2022F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2023F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2023F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Total Retail Sales ('a')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>零售销售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21,453</p><p><blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22,904</p><p><blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>23,560</p><p><blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>24,780</p><p><blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>23,778</p><p><blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25,490</p><p><blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27,172</p><p><blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>28,395</p><p><blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-4.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.20%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.60%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.50%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1,845</p><p><blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,382</p><p><blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,982</p><p><blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>3,354</p><p><blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,280</p><p><blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,716</p><p><blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5,434</p><p><blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6,247</p><p><blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>29.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>12.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Penetration Rate ('c')</b></p><p><blockquote><tr><td><b>渗透率（“c”）</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></p><p></p><p></td>    <td>10%</p><p><blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>12%</p><p><blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14%</p><p><blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>18%</p><p><blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19%</p><p><blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20%</p><p><blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22%</p><p><blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>16.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>16.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>20.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>17.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>17.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>11.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>11.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>32.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>32.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>2.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>8.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>10.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店收入('d')</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>91.43</p><p><blockquote><td>91.43</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>108.35</p><p><blockquote><td>108.35</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>122.99</p><p><blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>141.25</p><p><blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>197.35</p><p><blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>211.74</p><p><blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>244.02</p><p><blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>280.50</p><p><blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>18.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>18.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>13.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>39.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店市场份额('e')</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>* B = A x C</i></p><p><blockquote><i>*B=A x C</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>*D = B x E</i></p><p><blockquote><i>*D=B x E</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Rise of Third-party Seller Services</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第三方卖家服务的兴起</b></blockquote></p><p> Another major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的另一个主要优势是其物流和运输业务，这已成为一条难以逾越的护城河，很少有其他公司拥有资源或能力与之匹敌，亚马逊与该国大多数主要送货提供商合作。通过利用其强大的网络，它提供的计划使卖家能够通过其市场销售产品并通过公司履行订单。</blockquote></p><p> With Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore&nbsp;products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.</p><p><blockquote>通过亚马逊物流（“FBA”），第三方卖家在亚马逊的运营中心存储产品，并为这些产品挑选、包装、运输和提供客户服务。亚马逊不是卖家，但从主要由中小型企业组成的第三方卖家的安排中赚取佣金以及相关的履行和运输费用，包括库存管理、支付处理、货件跟踪和报告。</blockquote></p><p> Selling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately&nbsp;provides&nbsp;more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising&nbsp;share&nbsp;of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.</p><p><blockquote>作为第三方卖家在亚马逊上销售是卖家越来越受欢迎的选择。它最终提供了更大的灵活性和控制力、更强大的品牌影响力和更好的数据访问。在过去的几年里，亚马逊上第三方卖家的崛起，第三方销售额占其商品总销售额的比例不断上升，达到总销售额的62%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed0a2a75af197d4bf9dca92caab27d6c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: FourWeekMBA</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：FourWeekMBA</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it&nbsp;enhances&nbsp;its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business&nbsp;delivered&nbsp;1.9 bln packages in the US.</p><p><blockquote>下图进一步说明了亚马逊庞大的物流和运输网络。其履行中心网络是其增强物流和运输流程的几种方式之一，与联邦快递和UPS竞争，并且一直在加大力度推出其交付网络以及不断增长的飞机、无人机和货车机队。亚马逊自己的物流业务在美国运送了19亿个包裹。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732f32df08132a67f1f9ead2376b2fb\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"233\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: WebFX</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：WebFX</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Moreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming&nbsp;opening&nbsp;of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it&nbsp;announced&nbsp;plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.</p><p><blockquote>此外，其广泛的物流和运输覆盖范围在美国拥有100多个活跃仓库，其中加利福尼亚州、德克萨斯州和新泽西州的设施数量最多。此外，它正在南部大力扩张，规划仓库数量最多。例如，即将于2021年在密苏里州开设一个100万平方英尺的履行中心，员工将在那里包装和运输大型客户物品，如庭院家具、户外设备或地毯。2020年，该公司宣布了7个新履行中心的计划，包括佛罗里达州600,000平方英尺的设施、田纳西州855,000平方英尺的设施和德克萨斯州625,000平方英尺的履行中心。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d45f3a6df0a41b23e4f1d8fe2edb77d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: CNBC</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：CNBC</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Overall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has&nbsp;free&nbsp;Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，这些都是该公司凭借其广泛的物流网络在运输速度方面的优势的因素之一。该公司因其快速运输而非常受欢迎，甚至为Prime会员提供免费的两天甚至当天运输计划。根据下面的调查，大多数人或80%的人认为快速和免费送货是选择亚马逊的主要原因。我们相信，公司的计划扩张将继续增强其物流网络并保持其在客户中的受欢迎程度。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4143366dbcb762fad253420cdb1b5f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"409\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> We forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which&nbsp;represents&nbsp;60% of its total sales.</p><p><blockquote>我们预测了该公司的零售第三方卖家服务收入，其中包括来自第三方卖家销售的履行服务相关收入。随着第三方销售在其市场上越来越受欢迎，亚马逊的第三方商品销售总额预计将在过去5年的平均增长率为9%。此外，我们还预测，随着亚马逊继续扩大其履行能力以迎合第三方卖家，亚马逊的收入份额将从两年平均水平的27.3%增长1%。这一趋势也被认为对公司的利润率扩张具有重要意义，因为第三方卖家服务的毛利率估计在销售额的60%至75%之间，低于AWS的80%，但仍高于公司的整体毛利率37%由于与占总销售额60%的销售成本相关的高成本。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Third-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>第三方卖家服务收入（十亿美元）</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2016</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2016</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2017</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2017</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2018</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2018</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2019</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2019</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2020</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2020</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2021F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2021F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2022F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2022F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2023F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2023F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Global Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>全球零售电子商务销售额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1,845</p><p><blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,382</p><p><blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,982</p><p><blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>3,354</p><p><blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,280</p><p><blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,716</p><p><blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5,434</p><p><blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6,247</p><p><blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>29.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>12.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amazon Third Party Market Share ('b')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊第三方市场份额('b')</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>8.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>8.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>8.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21%</p><p><blockquote><td>21%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-2%</p><p><blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-2%</p><p><blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>11%</p><p><blockquote><td>11%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>16%</p><p><blockquote><td>16%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Third-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>第三方（亚马逊商城）GMV('c')</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>103</p><p><blockquote><td>103</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>130</p><p><blockquote><td>130</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>160</p><p><blockquote><td>160</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>200</p><p><blockquote><td>200</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>295</p><p><blockquote><td>295</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>353</p><p><blockquote><td>353</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>443</p><p><blockquote><td>443</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>553</p><p><blockquote><td>553</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>23.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>23.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>47.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>47.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>19.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>% Of Revenues ('d')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>佔收入百分比（“d”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>22.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>24.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>24.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>28.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>28.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>9.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>0.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>0.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>1.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Retail third-party seller services revenues ('e')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务收入（“e”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.99</p><p><blockquote><td>22.99</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.88</p><p><blockquote><td>31.88</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>42.75</p><p><blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>53.76</p><p><blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>80.46</p><p><blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>97.37</p><p><blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>123.25</p><p><blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>155.61</p><p><blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>38.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>38.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>34.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>49.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>*C = A x B</i></p><p><blockquote><i>*C=A × B</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>*E = C x D</i></p><p><blockquote><i>*E=C x D</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：亚马逊、Statista、Khaveen Investments</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>AWS Growth by Data Volume Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AWS按数据量增长增长</b></blockquote></p><p> Another key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的另一个关键增长领域是云计算，拥有Netflix(NFLX)、Verizon(VZ)、Capital One(COF)、麦当劳(MCD)等著名大客户。2020年AWS收入强劲增长29.5%，占据云基础设施市场31.8%的市场份额。自近20年前推出以来，它多年来已发展成为市场领导者，尽管竞争日益激烈，尤其是来自微软(MSFT)和谷歌的市场份额超过了亚马逊的增长，但它似乎将在可预见的未来维持现状。</blockquote></p><p> The rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.</p><p><blockquote>到2025年，全球数据量将增长23%，这支撑了云基础设施市场的快速增长，因为随着数据分析、5G和物联网的兴起，世界变得更加数据驱动，数据量预计将增长到180 zettabytes以上刺激了数据创建的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d467bae68efe047fa8c695360d5b551c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23%&nbsp;CAGR&nbsp;through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.</p><p><blockquote>我们预测云基础设施市场的增长基于到2025年数据量以23%的CAGR增长，平均云基础设施/数据增长系数为1.72。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd3a646de29cd8f5659eeaabcbf4831d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>*A=B x C资料来源：Statista、Khaveen Investments</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Thus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently&nbsp;announced&nbsp;a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.</p><p><blockquote>因此，尽管随着微软等竞争对手的增长速度超过AWS，AWS的市场份额趋于稳定，但我们仍然相信随着数据量的增长，云基础设施市场存在巨大机遇。更不用说，该公司通过新的客户关系强调了其对AWS的承诺，例如世界各地的主要体育联盟，包括国家曲棍球联盟、PGA巡回赛、一级方程式赛车和德国德甲联赛。此外，它最近还宣布与Dish Network建立合作关系，以构建基于云的5G基础设施，并将扩大其在以色列和阿拉伯联合酋长国的数据中心足迹。它目前在25个地理区域提供80个可用区，并计划再推出15个可用区来支持其云增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ebc384fe7bf254090200574fd352254\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Canalys, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Canalys、Khaveen投资</span></p></blockquote></p><p> All in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，我们基于市场份额预测假设来预测AWS的收入增长，即其市场份额领先地位正在被快速增长的竞争对手（尤其是微软）慢慢削弱，但在利用AWS的稳固大客户关系的支持下仍保持其市场领先地位。根据到2023年30.7%的市场份额预测，我们预计AWS收入将增长至815亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>AWS Forecasts</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>AWS预测</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2018</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2018</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2019</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2019</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2020</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2020</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2021F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2021F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2022F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2022F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2023F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2023F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>AWS Market Share</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>AWS市场份额</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>32.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>32.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>32.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>32.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>31.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>31.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>30.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>30.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>AWS Revenues ($ bln)</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>AWS收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.66</p><p><blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>35.03</p><p><blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.37</p><p><blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>54.58</p><p><blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>66.81</p><p><blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>81.52</p><p><blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>47.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>36.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>29.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>Source: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：亚马逊、Canalys、Khaveen Investments</i></blockquote></p><p> While AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.</p><p><blockquote>虽然AWS仅占其总收入的11%，但与其他公司部门的2.8%相比，其29%的高利润率使AWS在2020年占营业收入的59%，这凸显了AWS对其利润的重要性。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17ae44c90f44af56478935039edb4cc7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Amazon</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：亚马逊</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Antimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>反垄断和数据隐私罚款风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Amazon has been&nbsp;involved&nbsp;in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.</p><p><blockquote>民主党的报告称，亚马逊一直被指控不公平地从第三方卖家那里获取数据和信息，该公司在美国的电子商务市场份额约为40%。由于卖家对亚马逊销售渠道的依赖，亚马逊可以向卖家收取额外费用，并进一步惩罚卖家在其他网站上降低价格的行为。此外，由众议院议员组成的两党小组正在推动包括亚马逊在内的大型科技公司在一系列广泛的反垄断改革下对其商业行为进行彻底改革，这将使占主导地位的平台更难完成合并，并禁止它们拥有存在明显利益冲突的业务。</blockquote></p><p> Whereas in the&nbsp;European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>而在欧盟，亚马逊遭受了迄今为止最大的GDPR罚款。欧盟正在超越数据泄露，专注于数据实践。亚马逊因违反欧盟数据保护规则而面临8.88亿美元的罚款。亚马逊被指控违反了欧盟的通用数据保护条例（GDPR）。GDPR允许罚款高达亚马逊收入的4%，公布的数字显示，这约占亚马逊2020年213亿美元收入的4.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> The company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.</p><p><blockquote>该公司过去5年的平均收入增长率为29.4%，平均毛利率和净利润率分别为38.6%和3.5%。该公司的优势在于其利润率不断上升，因为由于其利润率更高的云业务的卓越增长，其净利润率也有所上升。AWS部门的营业利润率高达29.6%，而其余业务部门的营业利润率为2.8%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a075f1644a849d94c77b8707596cf501\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> More importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the&nbsp;acquisition&nbsp;of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，该公司拥有良好且强大的现金产生能力，过去5年的平均自由现金流利润率为3.01%。2017年，由于以137亿美元收购Whole Foods，其自由现金流利润率下降。其现金流的优势在于利润率的上升，因为其利润更高的AWS业务比其他部门表现出更高的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78710672b48942ad15fa6ecdd9fffaf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的资产负债表实力在于其偿还债务的强大能力。2020年其净债务为1130亿美元，2020年EBITDA/利息覆盖率为44倍。随着AWS的卓越增长，其盈利能力不断提高，其比率在过去5年中从32倍稳步上升。</blockquote></p><p> To value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.</p><p><blockquote>为了对亚马逊进行估值，我们使用了DCF估值，因为该公司过去拥有正的自由现金流。基于可比公司，我们得到的行业平均EV/EBITDA为27.64倍，如下表所示。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Company</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>公司</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>EV/EBITDA</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>EV/EBITDA</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amazon</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>28.57x</p><p><blockquote><td>28.57 x</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Alibaba (BABA)</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>阿里巴巴-SW（父亲）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21.14x</p><p><blockquote><td>21.14 x</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Microsoft</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>微软</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.89x</p><p><blockquote><td>25.89 x</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Google</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>谷歌</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.46x</p><p><blockquote><td>22.46 x</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Average</b></p><p><blockquote><tr><td><b>均值</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>24.52x</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>24.52 x</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>Source: SeekingAlpha</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：SeekingAlpha</i></blockquote></p><p> The revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.</p><p><blockquote>收入增长预测根据其在线商店、实体店、零售第三方卖家服务、订阅服务、AWS和其他的收入细分总结如下。网上商店预测源自其对电子商务市场预测增长的市场份额假设，而实体店销售则基于2021年7.2%的零售额增长率预测。零售第三方卖家服务来自其在整个电子商务市场中的第三方卖家GMV份额，并假设其从佣金和相关费用中获得%的收入。基于不断增长的数据量预测，AWS收入来自云市场增长。其他细分市场基于其平均3年增长率。2023年之后，我们下调了增长预测，到2027年，电子商务和云计算市场的加权复合年增长率为14.2%，并从2027年的12.3%逐步下调，到2030年每年下降2%，因为我们预计电子商务和云计算市场将更加成熟。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Amazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>亚马逊收入预测（十亿美元）</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2018</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2018</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2019</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2019</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2020</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2020</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2021F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2021F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2022F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2022F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2023F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2023F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Online stores</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>在线商店</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>122.99</p><p><blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>141.25</p><p><blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>197.35</p><p><blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>211.74</p><p><blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>244.02</p><p><blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>280.50</p><p><blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>13.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>39.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Physical stores</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>实体店</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>17.22</p><p><blockquote><td>17.22</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>17.19</p><p><blockquote><td>17.19</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>16.23</p><p><blockquote><td>16.23</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>17.40</p><p><blockquote><td>17.40</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>18.55</p><p><blockquote><td>18.55</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.38</p><p><blockquote><td>19.38</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>196.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>196.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-0.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>-0.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-5.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>-5.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.20%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.60%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.50%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Retail third-party seller services</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>42.75</p><p><blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>53.76</p><p><blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>80.46</p><p><blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>97.37</p><p><blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>123.25</p><p><blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>155.61</p><p><blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>34.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>49.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Subscription services</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>订阅服务</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14.17</p><p><blockquote><td>14.17</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.21</p><p><blockquote><td>19.21</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.21</p><p><blockquote><td>25.21</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>34.67</p><p><blockquote><td>34.67</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>47.68</p><p><blockquote><td>47.68</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>65.58</p><p><blockquote><td>65.58</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>35.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>35.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>37.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>37.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>37.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>AWS</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>AWS</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.66</p><p><blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>35.03</p><p><blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.37</p><p><blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>54.58</p><p><blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>66.81</p><p><blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>81.52</p><p><blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>47.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>36.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>29.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Other</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>其他的</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10.11</p><p><blockquote><td>10.11</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14.09</p><p><blockquote><td>14.09</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21.45</p><p><blockquote><td>21.45</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.27</p><p><blockquote><td>31.27</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.60</p><p><blockquote><td>45.60</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>66.48</p><p><blockquote><td>66.48</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>117.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>117.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>39.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>39.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>52.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>52.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></p><p></td>    <td>45.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Total</b></p><p><blockquote><tr><td><b>总的</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>232.9</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>232.9</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>280.53</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>280.53</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>386.07</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>386.07</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>447.0</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>447.0</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>545.9</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>545.9</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>669.1</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>669.1</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Total Growth %</b></p><p><blockquote><tr><td><b>总增长%</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>30.9%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>30.9%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>20.5%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>20.5%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>37.6%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>37.6%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>15.8%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>15.8%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>22.1%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>22.1%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>22.6%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>22.6%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</i></blockquote></p><p> Based on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.</p><p><blockquote>基于12.7%的贴现率（公司的WACC），我们的模型显示上涨空间为36.9%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74c5d7c65d544d533d2e87bb62270fb1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：卡文投资</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Verdict</b></p><p><blockquote><b>裁决</b></blockquote></p><p> In conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as a<i>Buy</i>with a price target of<i>$4,363.96.</i></p><p><blockquote>总之，我们分析了该公司的主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方卖家服务和AWS。虽然加速增长最终结束，但作为电子商务领域成熟且占主导地位的市场领导者，其增长前景仍然极具吸引力。随着消费者购买行为转向电子商务，电子商务销售额占零售总额的百分比预计将继续上升，预计到2023年将达到22%。该公司的Prime会员为其提供了大约占美国人口一半的忠实客户群。此外，另一个关键优势是其庞大的物流和运输网络，亚马逊FBA在其在线市场上看到第三方卖家的持续增长。最后，在可预见的未来，AWS仍然是明显的市场领导者，与大型企业客户有着密切的关系，管理层也不断致力于满足该细分市场不断增长的基础设施需求。因此，尽管预计2021年增长正常化，但我们认为其前景继续受到电子商务和云计算市场不断增长的提振，并将我们的增长率预测修正为2021年的15.8%，随后修正为2020年的22%。总体而言，我们将该股评级为<i>购买</i>目标价格为<i>$4,363.96.</i></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-08 11:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.</li>  <li>While growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.</li>  <li>AWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.</li>  <li>We revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2ca0bbeb0cb7be66a257f4e9d5f5fa1\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>公司2020年收入增长超出我们预期，我们将其增长率预测修正为15.8%。</li><li>尽管在经历了强劲活动的辉煌一年后，增长正在放缓，但该公司仍有望从电子商务转变中受益，预计零售渗透率为22%。</li><li>在可预见的未来，AWS预计仍将是第一大市场领导者。</li><li>我们使用DCF分析修改了估值，从3,358.73美元获得了4,303.18美元的新目标价。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>4kodiak/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since our previous&nbsp;coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.</p><p><blockquote>自我们上次报道以来，亚马逊公司(AMZN)的股价已上涨26%，超出了我们24.5%的收入增长预期，并在2020年底上涨了37.6%，其在线零售业务增长了40%，达到近2000亿美元，第三方服务800亿美元。在本次分析中，我们重新审视了其主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方服务和AWS。</blockquote></p><p> Despite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3&nbsp;guidance&nbsp;of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.</p><p><blockquote>尽管第二季度网上商店销售额增长疲软13%，第三季度同比指引中点疲软13%，表明增长正常化的迹象，但电子商务市场的长期增长前景仍然具有吸引力。亚马逊已确立市场地位的在线零售。随着越来越多的消费者将购买行为转移到网上，预计到2023年，电子商务的份额将从2020年的18%达到22%。我们相信，亚马逊稳固的市场地位、作为忠实客户的庞大Prime会员基础以及坚实的物流和运输网络为其提供了优势，正如其与第三方卖家的电子商务市场的崛起所证明的那样。此外，在可预见的未来，其云业务预计仍将是云基础设施市场的市场领导者，持续致力于增长并以不断增长的数据量为基础。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a78658eabc40ec60c6713019d6f800c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Amazon</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：亚马逊</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>E-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>尽管增长正常化，电子商务销售前景仍然有吸引力</b></blockquote></p><p> Amazon's online store&nbsp;sales&nbsp;have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊的在线商店销售额在2020年从上一年的14.8%飙升了40%，因为它受益于对实体零售商的长期封锁和限制，加速了向电子商务的采用。然而，尽管2021年第二季度在线商店增长同比放缓13%，而第一季度为41%，但我们相信该公司将继续受益于电子商务采用率不断上升的长期推动力。</blockquote></p><p> According to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to&nbsp;reach&nbsp;22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.</p><p><blockquote>根据eMarketer的数据，随着消费者继续转向在线购买，电子商务销售额的份额预计将达到全球零售额的22%。随着全球疫苗接种运动和商业限制的放松，全球零售额预计将反弹7.2%。因此，2021年电子商务销售额预测为10.2%，较2019年的27.6%实现正常化增长，渗透率从去年的14%飙升至18%。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Global E-Commerce Market ($ bln)</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>全球电子商务市场（十亿美元）</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2016</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2016</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2017</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2017</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2018</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2018</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2019</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2019</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2020</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2020</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2021F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2021F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2022F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2022F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2023F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2023F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Total Global Retail Sales ('a')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>全球零售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21,453</p><p><blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22,904</p><p><blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>23,560</p><p><blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>24,780</p><p><blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>23,778</p><p><blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25,490</p><p><blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27,172</p><p><blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>28,395</p><p><blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-4.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.20%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.60%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.50%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1,845</p><p><blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,382</p><p><blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,982</p><p><blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>3,354</p><p><blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,280</p><p><blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,716</p><p><blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5,434</p><p><blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6,247</p><p><blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>29.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>12.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Penetration Rate ('c')</b></p><p><blockquote><tr><td><b>渗透率（“c”）</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10%</p><p><blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>12%</p><p><blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14%</p><p><blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>18%</p><p><blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19%</p><p><blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20%</p><p><blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22%</p><p><blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>* B = C x A</i></p><p><blockquote><i>*B=C x A</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：Statista、eMarketer、Khaveen Investments</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Amazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US&nbsp;population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊既定的市场定位是其利用市场增长的额外竞争优势。更具体地说，很难在价格、选择和便利性等关键标准上赢得公司的支持。显然，该公司的Prime会员在2020年继续增长15%，达到1.425亿会员，约占美国人口的43%。这表明忠实客户对该公司具有强大的吸引力，为其提供了庞大的安装基础。通过Prime会员，也推动消费者购买更多，以获得各种福利。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125c2baa1b52e2787075210f05321e20\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"492\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Backlinko</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Backlinko</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently&nbsp;attract&nbsp;sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.</p><p><blockquote>除了Prime会员之外，该公司还能够持续吸引卖家到其平台，自2017年以来新增卖家330万人，即每天3,718人。目前，它在美国、英国、德国、日本等地拥有970万卖家。因此，该公司已确立了自己作为市场主导者的地位，并在电子商务销售方面远远领先于第二接近的竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6272ba7ee8cf6f5aab477b8425f34923\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Marketing Charts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：营销图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Its market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer &amp; consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel &amp; accessories, books music &amp; video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.</p><p><blockquote>如下表所示，其在不同产品类别和市场中的市场领导地位相当广泛。例如，其消费品和消费电子产品销售额是最大的产品类别，占美国电子商务总销售额的50.2%，占零售总额的26.7%。其次是服装和配饰、书籍、音乐和视频以及家具和家居用品，分别占电子商务销售额的32%、83.2%和34.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6765530fd408a02c75515a712af4087\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"725\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: eMarketer</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：eMarketer</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Among the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having&nbsp;purchased&nbsp;electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software&nbsp;updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker&nbsp;units&nbsp;and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average&nbsp;price&nbsp;of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.</p><p><blockquote>在产品类别中，电子产品类别最受美国购物者欢迎，44%的美国购物者在亚马逊上购买过电子产品。它还销售自己的电子设备，包括Echo智能扬声器，占美国市场份额的70%，其次是谷歌(GOOG)和苹果(AAPL)，并继续通过新一代产品和软件更新来开发该产品。2020年，该公司智能音箱出货量超过3800万台，占全球出货量市场份额的28.3%。根据Echo产品系列103美元的平均价格，我们估计其智能扬声器销售收入约为39.4亿美元，约占其在线商店收入的2%。然而，它也面临着日益激烈的竞争，尤其是来自主导中国市场的百度（BIDU）和小米（OTCPK：XIACF）等中国制造商的竞争。</blockquote></p><p> All in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln&nbsp;products&nbsp;excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，该公司拥有1200万种产品，不包括书籍、媒体、葡萄酒和服务，随着卖家基础的不断增长，我们预计这一产品广度将继续扩大，并通过产品多样性为客户提供独特的价值主张。</blockquote></p><p> Thus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们预计其拥有稳固的市场主导地位，拥有成熟的客户群和忠诚的Prime会员生态系统，以及在各种关键产品类别中拥有广泛的市场领导地位和广泛的产品广度的庞大卖家基础，以支持其长期增长。我们预测其在线商店增长是基于我们对其市场份额的预期（基于全球电子商务销售额的5年平均值）为4.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Amazon Online Stores ($ bln)</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>亚马逊在线商店（十亿美元）</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2016</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2016</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2017</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2017</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2018</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2018</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2019</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2019</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2020</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2020</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2021F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2021F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2022F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2022F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2023F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2023F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Total Retail Sales ('a')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>零售销售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21,453</p><p><blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22,904</p><p><blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>23,560</p><p><blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>24,780</p><p><blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>23,778</p><p><blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25,490</p><p><blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27,172</p><p><blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>28,395</p><p><blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-4.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.20%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.60%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.50%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1,845</p><p><blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,382</p><p><blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,982</p><p><blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>3,354</p><p><blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,280</p><p><blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,716</p><p><blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5,434</p><p><blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6,247</p><p><blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>29.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>12.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Penetration Rate ('c')</b></p><p><blockquote><tr><td><b>渗透率（“c”）</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></p><p></p><p></td>    <td>10%</p><p><blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>12%</p><p><blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14%</p><p><blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>18%</p><p><blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19%</p><p><blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20%</p><p><blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22%</p><p><blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>16.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>16.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>20.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>17.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>17.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>11.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>11.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>32.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>32.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>2.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>8.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>10.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店收入('d')</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>91.43</p><p><blockquote><td>91.43</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>108.35</p><p><blockquote><td>108.35</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>122.99</p><p><blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>141.25</p><p><blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>197.35</p><p><blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>211.74</p><p><blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>244.02</p><p><blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>280.50</p><p><blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>18.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>18.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>13.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>39.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店市场份额('e')</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>* B = A x C</i></p><p><blockquote><i>*B=A x C</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>*D = B x E</i></p><p><blockquote><i>*D=B x E</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Rise of Third-party Seller Services</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第三方卖家服务的兴起</b></blockquote></p><p> Another major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的另一个主要优势是其物流和运输业务，这已成为一条难以逾越的护城河，很少有其他公司拥有资源或能力与之匹敌，亚马逊与该国大多数主要送货提供商合作。通过利用其强大的网络，它提供的计划使卖家能够通过其市场销售产品并通过公司履行订单。</blockquote></p><p> With Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore&nbsp;products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.</p><p><blockquote>通过亚马逊物流（“FBA”），第三方卖家在亚马逊的运营中心存储产品，并为这些产品挑选、包装、运输和提供客户服务。亚马逊不是卖家，但从主要由中小型企业组成的第三方卖家的安排中赚取佣金以及相关的履行和运输费用，包括库存管理、支付处理、货件跟踪和报告。</blockquote></p><p> Selling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately&nbsp;provides&nbsp;more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising&nbsp;share&nbsp;of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.</p><p><blockquote>作为第三方卖家在亚马逊上销售是卖家越来越受欢迎的选择。它最终提供了更大的灵活性和控制力、更强大的品牌影响力和更好的数据访问。在过去的几年里，亚马逊上第三方卖家的崛起，第三方销售额占其商品总销售额的比例不断上升，达到总销售额的62%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed0a2a75af197d4bf9dca92caab27d6c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: FourWeekMBA</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：FourWeekMBA</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it&nbsp;enhances&nbsp;its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business&nbsp;delivered&nbsp;1.9 bln packages in the US.</p><p><blockquote>下图进一步说明了亚马逊庞大的物流和运输网络。其履行中心网络是其增强物流和运输流程的几种方式之一，与联邦快递和UPS竞争，并且一直在加大力度推出其交付网络以及不断增长的飞机、无人机和货车机队。亚马逊自己的物流业务在美国运送了19亿个包裹。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732f32df08132a67f1f9ead2376b2fb\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"233\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: WebFX</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：WebFX</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Moreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming&nbsp;opening&nbsp;of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it&nbsp;announced&nbsp;plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.</p><p><blockquote>此外，其广泛的物流和运输覆盖范围在美国拥有100多个活跃仓库，其中加利福尼亚州、德克萨斯州和新泽西州的设施数量最多。此外，它正在南部大力扩张，规划仓库数量最多。例如，即将于2021年在密苏里州开设一个100万平方英尺的履行中心，员工将在那里包装和运输大型客户物品，如庭院家具、户外设备或地毯。2020年，该公司宣布了7个新履行中心的计划，包括佛罗里达州600,000平方英尺的设施、田纳西州855,000平方英尺的设施和德克萨斯州625,000平方英尺的履行中心。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d45f3a6df0a41b23e4f1d8fe2edb77d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: CNBC</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：CNBC</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Overall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has&nbsp;free&nbsp;Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，这些都是该公司凭借其广泛的物流网络在运输速度方面的优势的因素之一。该公司因其快速运输而非常受欢迎，甚至为Prime会员提供免费的两天甚至当天运输计划。根据下面的调查，大多数人或80%的人认为快速和免费送货是选择亚马逊的主要原因。我们相信，公司的计划扩张将继续增强其物流网络并保持其在客户中的受欢迎程度。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4143366dbcb762fad253420cdb1b5f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"409\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> We forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which&nbsp;represents&nbsp;60% of its total sales.</p><p><blockquote>我们预测了该公司的零售第三方卖家服务收入，其中包括来自第三方卖家销售的履行服务相关收入。随着第三方销售在其市场上越来越受欢迎，亚马逊的第三方商品销售总额预计将在过去5年的平均增长率为9%。此外，我们还预测，随着亚马逊继续扩大其履行能力以迎合第三方卖家，亚马逊的收入份额将从两年平均水平的27.3%增长1%。这一趋势也被认为对公司的利润率扩张具有重要意义，因为第三方卖家服务的毛利率估计在销售额的60%至75%之间，低于AWS的80%，但仍高于公司的整体毛利率37%由于与占总销售额60%的销售成本相关的高成本。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Third-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>第三方卖家服务收入（十亿美元）</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2016</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2016</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2017</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2017</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2018</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2018</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2019</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2019</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2020</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2020</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2021F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2021F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2022F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2022F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2023F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2023F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Global Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>全球零售电子商务销售额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1,845</p><p><blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,382</p><p><blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,982</p><p><blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>3,354</p><p><blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,280</p><p><blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,716</p><p><blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5,434</p><p><blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6,247</p><p><blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>29.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>12.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amazon Third Party Market Share ('b')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊第三方市场份额('b')</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>8.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>8.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>8.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21%</p><p><blockquote><td>21%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-2%</p><p><blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-2%</p><p><blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>11%</p><p><blockquote><td>11%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>16%</p><p><blockquote><td>16%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Third-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>第三方（亚马逊商城）GMV('c')</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>103</p><p><blockquote><td>103</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>130</p><p><blockquote><td>130</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>160</p><p><blockquote><td>160</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>200</p><p><blockquote><td>200</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>295</p><p><blockquote><td>295</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>353</p><p><blockquote><td>353</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>443</p><p><blockquote><td>443</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>553</p><p><blockquote><td>553</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>23.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>23.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>47.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>47.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>19.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>% Of Revenues ('d')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>佔收入百分比（“d”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>22.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>24.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>24.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>28.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>28.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>9.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>0.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>0.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>1.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Retail third-party seller services revenues ('e')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务收入（“e”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.99</p><p><blockquote><td>22.99</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.88</p><p><blockquote><td>31.88</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>42.75</p><p><blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>53.76</p><p><blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>80.46</p><p><blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>97.37</p><p><blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>123.25</p><p><blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>155.61</p><p><blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>38.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>38.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>34.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>49.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>*C = A x B</i></p><p><blockquote><i>*C=A × B</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>*E = C x D</i></p><p><blockquote><i>*E=C x D</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：亚马逊、Statista、Khaveen Investments</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>AWS Growth by Data Volume Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AWS按数据量增长增长</b></blockquote></p><p> Another key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的另一个关键增长领域是云计算，拥有Netflix(NFLX)、Verizon(VZ)、Capital One(COF)、麦当劳(MCD)等著名大客户。2020年AWS收入强劲增长29.5%，占据云基础设施市场31.8%的市场份额。自近20年前推出以来，它多年来已发展成为市场领导者，尽管竞争日益激烈，尤其是来自微软(MSFT)和谷歌的市场份额超过了亚马逊的增长，但它似乎将在可预见的未来维持现状。</blockquote></p><p> The rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.</p><p><blockquote>到2025年，全球数据量将增长23%，这支撑了云基础设施市场的快速增长，因为随着数据分析、5G和物联网的兴起，世界变得更加数据驱动，数据量预计将增长到180 zettabytes以上刺激了数据创建的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d467bae68efe047fa8c695360d5b551c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23%&nbsp;CAGR&nbsp;through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.</p><p><blockquote>我们预测云基础设施市场的增长基于到2025年数据量以23%的CAGR增长，平均云基础设施/数据增长系数为1.72。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd3a646de29cd8f5659eeaabcbf4831d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>*A=B x C资料来源：Statista、Khaveen Investments</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Thus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently&nbsp;announced&nbsp;a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.</p><p><blockquote>因此，尽管随着微软等竞争对手的增长速度超过AWS，AWS的市场份额趋于稳定，但我们仍然相信随着数据量的增长，云基础设施市场存在巨大机遇。更不用说，该公司通过新的客户关系强调了其对AWS的承诺，例如世界各地的主要体育联盟，包括国家曲棍球联盟、PGA巡回赛、一级方程式赛车和德国德甲联赛。此外，它最近还宣布与Dish Network建立合作关系，以构建基于云的5G基础设施，并将扩大其在以色列和阿拉伯联合酋长国的数据中心足迹。它目前在25个地理区域提供80个可用区，并计划再推出15个可用区来支持其云增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ebc384fe7bf254090200574fd352254\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Canalys, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Canalys、Khaveen投资</span></p></blockquote></p><p> All in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，我们基于市场份额预测假设来预测AWS的收入增长，即其市场份额领先地位正在被快速增长的竞争对手（尤其是微软）慢慢削弱，但在利用AWS的稳固大客户关系的支持下仍保持其市场领先地位。根据到2023年30.7%的市场份额预测，我们预计AWS收入将增长至815亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>AWS Forecasts</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>AWS预测</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2018</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2018</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2019</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2019</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2020</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2020</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2021F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2021F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2022F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2022F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2023F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2023F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>AWS Market Share</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>AWS市场份额</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>32.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>32.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>32.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>32.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>31.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>31.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>30.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>30.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>AWS Revenues ($ bln)</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>AWS收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.66</p><p><blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>35.03</p><p><blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.37</p><p><blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>54.58</p><p><blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>66.81</p><p><blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>81.52</p><p><blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>47.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>36.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>29.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>Source: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：亚马逊、Canalys、Khaveen Investments</i></blockquote></p><p> While AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.</p><p><blockquote>虽然AWS仅占其总收入的11%，但与其他公司部门的2.8%相比，其29%的高利润率使AWS在2020年占营业收入的59%，这凸显了AWS对其利润的重要性。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17ae44c90f44af56478935039edb4cc7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Amazon</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：亚马逊</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Antimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>反垄断和数据隐私罚款风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Amazon has been&nbsp;involved&nbsp;in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.</p><p><blockquote>民主党的报告称，亚马逊一直被指控不公平地从第三方卖家那里获取数据和信息，该公司在美国的电子商务市场份额约为40%。由于卖家对亚马逊销售渠道的依赖，亚马逊可以向卖家收取额外费用，并进一步惩罚卖家在其他网站上降低价格的行为。此外，由众议院议员组成的两党小组正在推动包括亚马逊在内的大型科技公司在一系列广泛的反垄断改革下对其商业行为进行彻底改革，这将使占主导地位的平台更难完成合并，并禁止它们拥有存在明显利益冲突的业务。</blockquote></p><p> Whereas in the&nbsp;European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>而在欧盟，亚马逊遭受了迄今为止最大的GDPR罚款。欧盟正在超越数据泄露，专注于数据实践。亚马逊因违反欧盟数据保护规则而面临8.88亿美元的罚款。亚马逊被指控违反了欧盟的通用数据保护条例（GDPR）。GDPR允许罚款高达亚马逊收入的4%，公布的数字显示，这约占亚马逊2020年213亿美元收入的4.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> The company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.</p><p><blockquote>该公司过去5年的平均收入增长率为29.4%，平均毛利率和净利润率分别为38.6%和3.5%。该公司的优势在于其利润率不断上升，因为由于其利润率更高的云业务的卓越增长，其净利润率也有所上升。AWS部门的营业利润率高达29.6%，而其余业务部门的营业利润率为2.8%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a075f1644a849d94c77b8707596cf501\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> More importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the&nbsp;acquisition&nbsp;of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，该公司拥有良好且强大的现金产生能力，过去5年的平均自由现金流利润率为3.01%。2017年，由于以137亿美元收购Whole Foods，其自由现金流利润率下降。其现金流的优势在于利润率的上升，因为其利润更高的AWS业务比其他部门表现出更高的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78710672b48942ad15fa6ecdd9fffaf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的资产负债表实力在于其偿还债务的强大能力。2020年其净债务为1130亿美元，2020年EBITDA/利息覆盖率为44倍。随着AWS的卓越增长，其盈利能力不断提高，其比率在过去5年中从32倍稳步上升。</blockquote></p><p> To value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.</p><p><blockquote>为了对亚马逊进行估值，我们使用了DCF估值，因为该公司过去拥有正的自由现金流。基于可比公司，我们得到的行业平均EV/EBITDA为27.64倍，如下表所示。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Company</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>公司</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>EV/EBITDA</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>EV/EBITDA</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amazon</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>28.57x</p><p><blockquote><td>28.57 x</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Alibaba (BABA)</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>阿里巴巴-SW（父亲）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21.14x</p><p><blockquote><td>21.14 x</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Microsoft</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>微软</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.89x</p><p><blockquote><td>25.89 x</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Google</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>谷歌</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.46x</p><p><blockquote><td>22.46 x</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Average</b></p><p><blockquote><tr><td><b>均值</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>24.52x</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>24.52 x</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>Source: SeekingAlpha</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：SeekingAlpha</i></blockquote></p><p> The revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.</p><p><blockquote>收入增长预测根据其在线商店、实体店、零售第三方卖家服务、订阅服务、AWS和其他的收入细分总结如下。网上商店预测源自其对电子商务市场预测增长的市场份额假设，而实体店销售则基于2021年7.2%的零售额增长率预测。零售第三方卖家服务来自其在整个电子商务市场中的第三方卖家GMV份额，并假设其从佣金和相关费用中获得%的收入。基于不断增长的数据量预测，AWS收入来自云市场增长。其他细分市场基于其平均3年增长率。2023年之后，我们下调了增长预测，到2027年，电子商务和云计算市场的加权复合年增长率为14.2%，并从2027年的12.3%逐步下调，到2030年每年下降2%，因为我们预计电子商务和云计算市场将更加成熟。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Amazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>亚马逊收入预测（十亿美元）</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2018</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2018</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2019</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2019</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2020</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2020</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2021F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2021F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2022F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2022F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2023F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2023F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Online stores</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>在线商店</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>122.99</p><p><blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>141.25</p><p><blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>197.35</p><p><blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>211.74</p><p><blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>244.02</p><p><blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>280.50</p><p><blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>13.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>39.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Physical stores</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>实体店</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>17.22</p><p><blockquote><td>17.22</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>17.19</p><p><blockquote><td>17.19</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>16.23</p><p><blockquote><td>16.23</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>17.40</p><p><blockquote><td>17.40</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>18.55</p><p><blockquote><td>18.55</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.38</p><p><blockquote><td>19.38</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>196.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>196.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-0.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>-0.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-5.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>-5.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.20%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.60%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.50%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Retail third-party seller services</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>42.75</p><p><blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>53.76</p><p><blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>80.46</p><p><blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>97.37</p><p><blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>123.25</p><p><blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>155.61</p><p><blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>34.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>49.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Subscription services</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>订阅服务</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14.17</p><p><blockquote><td>14.17</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.21</p><p><blockquote><td>19.21</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.21</p><p><blockquote><td>25.21</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>34.67</p><p><blockquote><td>34.67</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>47.68</p><p><blockquote><td>47.68</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>65.58</p><p><blockquote><td>65.58</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>35.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>35.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>37.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>37.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>37.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>AWS</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>AWS</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.66</p><p><blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>35.03</p><p><blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.37</p><p><blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>54.58</p><p><blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>66.81</p><p><blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>81.52</p><p><blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>47.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>36.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>29.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Other</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>其他的</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10.11</p><p><blockquote><td>10.11</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14.09</p><p><blockquote><td>14.09</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21.45</p><p><blockquote><td>21.45</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.27</p><p><blockquote><td>31.27</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.60</p><p><blockquote><td>45.60</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>66.48</p><p><blockquote><td>66.48</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>117.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>117.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>39.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>39.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>52.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>52.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></p><p></td>    <td>45.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Total</b></p><p><blockquote><tr><td><b>总的</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>232.9</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>232.9</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>280.53</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>280.53</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>386.07</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>386.07</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>447.0</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>447.0</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>545.9</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>545.9</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>669.1</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>669.1</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Total Growth %</b></p><p><blockquote><tr><td><b>总增长%</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>30.9%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>30.9%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>20.5%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>20.5%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>37.6%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>37.6%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>15.8%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>15.8%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>22.1%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>22.1%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>22.6%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>22.6%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</i></blockquote></p><p> Based on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.</p><p><blockquote>基于12.7%的贴现率（公司的WACC），我们的模型显示上涨空间为36.9%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74c5d7c65d544d533d2e87bb62270fb1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：卡文投资</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Verdict</b></p><p><blockquote><b>裁决</b></blockquote></p><p> In conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as a<i>Buy</i>with a price target of<i>$4,363.96.</i></p><p><blockquote>总之，我们分析了该公司的主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方卖家服务和AWS。虽然加速增长最终结束，但作为电子商务领域成熟且占主导地位的市场领导者，其增长前景仍然极具吸引力。随着消费者购买行为转向电子商务，电子商务销售额占零售总额的百分比预计将继续上升，预计到2023年将达到22%。该公司的Prime会员为其提供了大约占美国人口一半的忠实客户群。此外，另一个关键优势是其庞大的物流和运输网络，亚马逊FBA在其在线市场上看到第三方卖家的持续增长。最后，在可预见的未来，AWS仍然是明显的市场领导者，与大型企业客户有着密切的关系，管理层也不断致力于满足该细分市场不断增长的基础设施需求。因此，尽管预计2021年增长正常化，但我们认为其前景继续受到电子商务和云计算市场不断增长的提振，并将我们的增长率预测修正为2021年的15.8%，随后修正为2020年的22%。总体而言，我们将该股评级为<i>购买</i>目标价格为<i>$4,363.96.</i></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453926-amazon-stock-still-attractive\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453926-amazon-stock-still-attractive","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143120804","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.\nWhile growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.\nAWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.\nWe revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.\n\n4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nSince our previous coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.\nDespite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3 guidance of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.\nSource: Amazon\nE-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth\nAmazon's online store sales have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.\nAccording to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to reach 22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.\n\n\n\nGlobal E-Commerce Market ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nTotal Global Retail Sales ('a')\n21,453\n22,904\n23,560\n24,780\n23,778\n25,490\n27,172\n28,395\n\n\nGrowth %\n2.6%\n6.8%\n2.9%\n5.2%\n-4.0%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail E-commerce Sales ('b')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPenetration Rate ('c')\n9%\n10%\n12%\n14%\n18%\n19%\n20%\n22%\n\n\n\n* B = C x A\nSource: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments\nAmazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.\nSource: Backlinko\nIn addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently attract sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.\nSource: Marketing Charts\nIts market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer & consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel & accessories, books music & video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.\nSource: eMarketer\nAmong the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having purchased electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker units and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average price of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.\nAll in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln products excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.\nThus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.\n\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nTotal Retail Sales ('a')\n21,453\n22,904\n23,560\n24,780\n23,778\n25,490\n27,172\n28,395\n\n\nGrowth %\n2.6%\n6.8%\n2.9%\n5.2%\n-4.0%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail E-commerce Sales ('b')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPenetration Rate ('c')\n9%\n10%\n12%\n14%\n18%\n19%\n20%\n22%\n\n\nGrowth %\n16.2%\n20.9%\n17.3%\n11.5%\n32.4%\n2.8%\n8.1%\n10.0%\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')\n91.43\n108.35\n122.99\n141.25\n197.35\n211.74\n244.02\n280.50\n\n\nGrowth %\n18.5%\n13.5%\n14.8%\n39.7%\n7.3%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')\n5.0%\n4.5%\n4.1%\n4.2%\n4.6%\n4.5%\n4.5%\n4.5%\n\n\n\n* B = A x C\n*D = B x E\nSource: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nThe Rise of Third-party Seller Services\nAnother major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.\nWith Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.\nSelling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately provides more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising share of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.\nSource: FourWeekMBA\nThe chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it enhances its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business delivered 1.9 bln packages in the US.\nSource: WebFX\nMoreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming opening of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it announced plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.\nSource: CNBC\nOverall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has free Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.\nSource: Statista\nWe forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which represents 60% of its total sales.\n\n\n\nThird-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nGlobal Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nAmazon Third Party Market Share ('b')\n5.6%\n5.5%\n5.4%\n6.0%\n6.9%\n7.5%\n8.1%\n8.9%\n\n\nGrowth %\n21%\n-2%\n-2%\n11%\n16%\n9%\n9%\n9%\n\n\nThird-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')\n103\n130\n160\n200\n295\n353\n443\n553\n\n\nGrowth %\n26.2%\n23.1%\n25.0%\n47.5%\n19.8%\n25.3%\n25.0%\n\n\n% Of Revenues ('d')\n22.3%\n24.5%\n26.7%\n26.9%\n27.3%\n27.6%\n27.8%\n28.1%\n\n\nGrowth %\n9.9%\n9.0%\n0.6%\n1.5%\n1.0%\n1.0%\n1.0%\n\n\nRetail third-party seller services revenues ('e')\n22.99\n31.88\n42.75\n53.76\n80.46\n97.37\n123.25\n155.61\n\n\nGrowth %\n38.7%\n34.1%\n25.8%\n49.7%\n21.0%\n26.6%\n26.3%\n\n\n\n*C = A x B\n*E = C x D\nSource: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments\nAWS Growth by Data Volume Growth\nAnother key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.\nThe rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.\nSource: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nWe projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23% CAGR through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.\n* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nThus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently announced a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.\nSource: Canalys, Khaveen Investments\nAll in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.\n\n\n\nAWS Forecasts\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nAWS Market Share\n32.6%\n32.3%\n31.8%\n31.2%\n31.0%\n30.7%\n\n\nAWS Revenues ($ bln)\n25.66\n35.03\n45.37\n54.58\n66.81\n81.52\n\n\nGrowth %\n47.0%\n36.5%\n29.5%\n20.3%\n22.4%\n22.0%\n\n\n\nSource: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments\nWhile AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.\nSource: Amazon\nAntimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk\nAmazon has been involved in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.\nWhereas in the European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.\nValuation\nThe company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nMore importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the acquisition of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nThe company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.\nTo value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.\n\n\n\nCompany\nEV/EBITDA\n\n\nAmazon\n28.57x\n\n\nAlibaba (BABA)\n21.14x\n\n\nMicrosoft\n25.89x\n\n\nGoogle\n22.46x\n\n\nAverage\n24.52x\n\n\n\nSource: SeekingAlpha\nThe revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.\n\n\n\nAmazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nOnline stores\n122.99\n141.25\n197.35\n211.74\n244.02\n280.50\n\n\nGrowth %\n13.5%\n14.8%\n39.7%\n7.3%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPhysical stores\n17.22\n17.19\n16.23\n17.40\n18.55\n19.38\n\n\nGrowth %\n196.9%\n-0.2%\n-5.6%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail third-party seller services\n42.75\n53.76\n80.46\n97.37\n123.25\n155.61\n\n\nGrowth %\n34.1%\n25.8%\n49.7%\n21.0%\n26.6%\n26.3%\n\n\nSubscription services\n14.17\n19.21\n25.21\n34.67\n47.68\n65.58\n\n\nGrowth %\n45.8%\n35.6%\n31.2%\n37.5%\n37.5%\n37.5%\n\n\nAWS\n25.66\n35.03\n45.37\n54.58\n66.81\n81.52\n\n\nGrowth %\n47.0%\n36.5%\n29.5%\n20.3%\n22.4%\n22.0%\n\n\nOther\n10.11\n14.09\n21.45\n31.27\n45.60\n66.48\n\n\nGrowth %\n117.4%\n39.4%\n52.2%\n45.8%\n45.8%\n45.8%\n\n\nTotal\n232.9\n280.53\n386.07\n447.0\n545.9\n669.1\n\n\nTotal Growth %\n30.9%\n20.5%\n37.6%\n15.8%\n22.1%\n22.6%\n\n\n\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nBased on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.\nSource: Khaveen Investments\nVerdict\nIn conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as aBuywith a price target of$4,363.96.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2474,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":814976832,"gmtCreate":1630754037226,"gmtModify":1631891625345,"author":{"id":"3583806200035507","authorId":"3583806200035507","name":"HuiBing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583806200035507","idStr":"3583806200035507"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/814976832","repostId":"1186003479","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3279,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":815261362,"gmtCreate":1630681184056,"gmtModify":1631891625358,"author":{"id":"3583806200035507","authorId":"3583806200035507","name":"HuiBing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583806200035507","idStr":"3583806200035507"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/815261362","repostId":"2164872049","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2164872049","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1630679468,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2164872049?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-03 22:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Zooming In On Zoom's Solid But Not Good Enough Results<blockquote>放大Zoom可靠但不够好的结果</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2164872049","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Despite logging its first billion-dollar quarter, the stock of Zoom Video Communications (NASDAQ: ZM) fell almost 11% on Monday after the company posted a higher-than-expected earnings forecast for the full year. The revenue guidance exactly met expectations, but sales-growth rates fall to new lows.","content":"<p>Despite logging its first billion-dollar quarter, the stock of&nbsp;<b>Zoom</b>&nbsp;<b>Video Communications</b> (NASDAQ:ZM) fell almost 11% on Monday after the company posted a higher-than-expected earnings forecast for the full year. The revenue guidance exactly met expectations, but sales-growth rates fall to new lows. In simple words, the video platform has continued to grow, but not at the overly optimistic pace that analysts expected.</p><p><blockquote>尽管第一个季度的收入达到了10亿美元，但<b>Zoom</b> <b>视频通信</b>（纳斯达克：ZM）周一下跌近11%，此前该公司公布了高于预期的全年盈利预测。收入指引完全符合预期，但销售增长率跌至新低。简单来说，视频平台一直在持续增长，但没有达到分析师预期的过于乐观的速度。</blockquote></p><p> <h4>Q2 Figures</h4> For the quarter that ended on July 31st, revenue increased by 54% YoY in the quarter &nbsp;and topping $1 billion for the first time as it amounted to $1.02 billion, also exceeding Refinitiv expectations of $991.0 million as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv. Adjusted net income came in 48% higher from the year-ago quarter, amounting to $1.36 per share, also exceeding $1.16 expected by Refinitiv. Free cash flow improved 22% as it improved to $455 million.</p><p><blockquote><h4>第二季度数据</h4>根据Refinitiv的数据，截至7月31日的季度，该季度收入同比增长54%，首次突破10亿美元，达到10.2亿美元，也超过了分析师预期的9.91亿美元。调整后净利润较去年同期增长48%，达到每股1.36美元，也超过Refinitiv预期的1.16美元。自由现金流增长22%，达到4.55亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Gross margin improved from 72.3% in the previous quarter to 74.4%. Gross margin benefited from new data center capacity as well as lower usage during the summer, thanks in part to the school break. The Zoom Phone cloud-based phone service expanded from 1.5 million three months earlier to 2 million seats.</p><p><blockquote>毛利率从上一季度的72.3%提高至74.4%。毛利率受益于新的数据中心容量以及夏季使用率的降低，部分原因是学校放假。Zoom Phone基于云的电话服务从三个月前的150万个扩展到200万个座位。</blockquote></p><p> <h4>Outlook</h4> During the quarter, Zoom announced it will acquire cloud contact-center software provider Five9, along with the availability of Zoom Events for premium online meetings. The video communications company also invested in event software maker Cvent that sought to go public through a SPAC.</p><p><blockquote><h4>世界观</h4>本季度，Zoom宣布将收购云联络中心软件提供商Five9，并为高级在线会议提供Zoom Events。这家视频通信公司还投资了活动软件制造商Cvent，该公司寻求通过SPAC上市。</blockquote></p><p> As for the undergoing quarter, Zoom is guiding to 31% growth. Adjusted earnings per share are expected in the range between $1.07 to $1.08 with $1.015 billion to $1.020 billion in revenue.</p><p><blockquote>至于本季度，Zoom预计增长31%。调整后每股收益预计在1.07美元至1.08美元之间，营收为10.15亿美元至10.20亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> For the full fiscal year, it improved its forecast as coronavirus case counts have increased and many companies delayed plans to reopen offices. Adjusted earnings are expected to be in the range between $4.75 to $4.79 per share with the revenue range being within $4.005 billion and $4.015 billion in revenue. Previous estimates for adjusted earnings were $4.56 to $4.61 and $3.98 billion to $3.99 billion for revenue.</p><p><blockquote>对于整个财年，由于冠状病毒病例数增加以及许多公司推迟了重新开放办事处的计划，该公司提高了预测。预计调整后每股收益在4.75美元至4.79美元之间，营收在40.05亿美元至40.15亿美元之间。此前对调整后收益的预期为4.56美元至4.61美元，营收为39.8亿美元至39.9亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The forecast is ahead of analysts' consensus estimates for both adjusted earnings per share and revenue, being $4.67 and $4.01 billion, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>该预测高于分析师对调整后每股收益和营收的普遍预期，分别为4.67美元和40.1亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The guidance assumes strong growth for the direct and channel businesses, but also a weakness in the online business because of challenges encountered by smaller customers and consumers. Gross margin is expected to expand with students resuming classes.</p><p><blockquote>该指南假设直销和渠道业务将强劲增长，但由于小客户和消费者遇到的挑战，在线业务也将疲软。随着学生复课，毛利率预计将扩大。</blockquote></p><p> <h4>The Verdict</h4> By most standards,&nbsp;Zoom's business metrics look solid with 2,278 customers contributing $100,000 or more to its annual revenue. This is well over double its last year's big-client count. Customers with more than 10 employees vaulted over the half-million mark, up 36% YoY. On a trailing 12-month basis, net dollar expansion rates remained above 130%. But its results just weren't good enough for Wall Street who was not pleased to see the company calling for roughly flat third-quarter revenue compared to the second quarter.</p><p><blockquote><h4>判决</h4>按照大多数标准，Zoom的业务指标看起来很稳健，有2,278名客户为其年收入贡献了10万美元或更多。这是去年大客户数量的两倍多。拥有10名以上员工的客户突破50万大关，同比增长36%。在过去12个月的基础上，美元净增长率保持在130%以上。但对于华尔街来说，其业绩还不够好，华尔街不高兴看到该公司要求第三季度收入与第二季度大致持平。</blockquote></p><p> <i>This article is not a press release and is contributed by a verified independent journalist for IAMNewswire. It should not be construed as investment advice at any time please read the full disclosure. IAM Newswire does not hold any position in the mentioned companies. Press Releases – If you are looking for full Press release distribution contact: press@iamnewswire.com Contributors – IAM Newswire accepts pitches. If you're interested in becoming an IAM journalist contact: contributors@iamnewswire.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>本文不是新闻稿，由IAMNewswire的经过验证的独立记者撰写。在任何时候都不应将其解释为投资建议，请阅读完整的披露。IAM Newswire在上述公司中没有任何职位。新闻稿-如果您正在寻找完整的新闻稿分发，请联系：press@iamnewswire.com贡献者-IAM Newswire接受推介。如果您有兴趣成为IAM记者，请联系：contributors@iamnewswire.com</i></blockquote></p><p> The post Zooming in on Zoom's Solid But Not Good Enough Results appeared first on IAM Newswire.</p><p><blockquote>放大Zoom稳健但不够好的结果的帖子首先出现在IAM新闻专线上。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Zooming In On Zoom's Solid But Not Good Enough Results<blockquote>放大Zoom可靠但不够好的结果</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nZooming In On Zoom's Solid But Not Good Enough Results<blockquote>放大Zoom可靠但不够好的结果</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-03 22:31</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Despite logging its first billion-dollar quarter, the stock of&nbsp;<b>Zoom</b>&nbsp;<b>Video Communications</b> (NASDAQ:ZM) fell almost 11% on Monday after the company posted a higher-than-expected earnings forecast for the full year. The revenue guidance exactly met expectations, but sales-growth rates fall to new lows. In simple words, the video platform has continued to grow, but not at the overly optimistic pace that analysts expected.</p><p><blockquote>尽管第一个季度的收入达到了10亿美元，但<b>Zoom</b> <b>视频通信</b>（纳斯达克：ZM）周一下跌近11%，此前该公司公布了高于预期的全年盈利预测。收入指引完全符合预期，但销售增长率跌至新低。简单来说，视频平台一直在持续增长，但没有达到分析师预期的过于乐观的速度。</blockquote></p><p> <h4>Q2 Figures</h4> For the quarter that ended on July 31st, revenue increased by 54% YoY in the quarter &nbsp;and topping $1 billion for the first time as it amounted to $1.02 billion, also exceeding Refinitiv expectations of $991.0 million as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv. Adjusted net income came in 48% higher from the year-ago quarter, amounting to $1.36 per share, also exceeding $1.16 expected by Refinitiv. Free cash flow improved 22% as it improved to $455 million.</p><p><blockquote><h4>第二季度数据</h4>根据Refinitiv的数据，截至7月31日的季度，该季度收入同比增长54%，首次突破10亿美元，达到10.2亿美元，也超过了分析师预期的9.91亿美元。调整后净利润较去年同期增长48%，达到每股1.36美元，也超过Refinitiv预期的1.16美元。自由现金流增长22%，达到4.55亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Gross margin improved from 72.3% in the previous quarter to 74.4%. Gross margin benefited from new data center capacity as well as lower usage during the summer, thanks in part to the school break. The Zoom Phone cloud-based phone service expanded from 1.5 million three months earlier to 2 million seats.</p><p><blockquote>毛利率从上一季度的72.3%提高至74.4%。毛利率受益于新的数据中心容量以及夏季使用率的降低，部分原因是学校放假。Zoom Phone基于云的电话服务从三个月前的150万个扩展到200万个座位。</blockquote></p><p> <h4>Outlook</h4> During the quarter, Zoom announced it will acquire cloud contact-center software provider Five9, along with the availability of Zoom Events for premium online meetings. The video communications company also invested in event software maker Cvent that sought to go public through a SPAC.</p><p><blockquote><h4>世界观</h4>本季度，Zoom宣布将收购云联络中心软件提供商Five9，并为高级在线会议提供Zoom Events。这家视频通信公司还投资了活动软件制造商Cvent，该公司寻求通过SPAC上市。</blockquote></p><p> As for the undergoing quarter, Zoom is guiding to 31% growth. Adjusted earnings per share are expected in the range between $1.07 to $1.08 with $1.015 billion to $1.020 billion in revenue.</p><p><blockquote>至于本季度，Zoom预计增长31%。调整后每股收益预计在1.07美元至1.08美元之间，营收为10.15亿美元至10.20亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> For the full fiscal year, it improved its forecast as coronavirus case counts have increased and many companies delayed plans to reopen offices. Adjusted earnings are expected to be in the range between $4.75 to $4.79 per share with the revenue range being within $4.005 billion and $4.015 billion in revenue. Previous estimates for adjusted earnings were $4.56 to $4.61 and $3.98 billion to $3.99 billion for revenue.</p><p><blockquote>对于整个财年，由于冠状病毒病例数增加以及许多公司推迟了重新开放办事处的计划，该公司提高了预测。预计调整后每股收益在4.75美元至4.79美元之间，营收在40.05亿美元至40.15亿美元之间。此前对调整后收益的预期为4.56美元至4.61美元，营收为39.8亿美元至39.9亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The forecast is ahead of analysts' consensus estimates for both adjusted earnings per share and revenue, being $4.67 and $4.01 billion, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>该预测高于分析师对调整后每股收益和营收的普遍预期，分别为4.67美元和40.1亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The guidance assumes strong growth for the direct and channel businesses, but also a weakness in the online business because of challenges encountered by smaller customers and consumers. Gross margin is expected to expand with students resuming classes.</p><p><blockquote>该指南假设直销和渠道业务将强劲增长，但由于小客户和消费者遇到的挑战，在线业务也将疲软。随着学生复课，毛利率预计将扩大。</blockquote></p><p> <h4>The Verdict</h4> By most standards,&nbsp;Zoom's business metrics look solid with 2,278 customers contributing $100,000 or more to its annual revenue. This is well over double its last year's big-client count. Customers with more than 10 employees vaulted over the half-million mark, up 36% YoY. On a trailing 12-month basis, net dollar expansion rates remained above 130%. But its results just weren't good enough for Wall Street who was not pleased to see the company calling for roughly flat third-quarter revenue compared to the second quarter.</p><p><blockquote><h4>判决</h4>按照大多数标准，Zoom的业务指标看起来很稳健，有2,278名客户为其年收入贡献了10万美元或更多。这是去年大客户数量的两倍多。拥有10名以上员工的客户突破50万大关，同比增长36%。在过去12个月的基础上，美元净增长率保持在130%以上。但对于华尔街来说，其业绩还不够好，华尔街不高兴看到该公司要求第三季度收入与第二季度大致持平。</blockquote></p><p> <i>This article is not a press release and is contributed by a verified independent journalist for IAMNewswire. It should not be construed as investment advice at any time please read the full disclosure. IAM Newswire does not hold any position in the mentioned companies. Press Releases – If you are looking for full Press release distribution contact: press@iamnewswire.com Contributors – IAM Newswire accepts pitches. If you're interested in becoming an IAM journalist contact: contributors@iamnewswire.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>本文不是新闻稿，由IAMNewswire的经过验证的独立记者撰写。在任何时候都不应将其解释为投资建议，请阅读完整的披露。IAM Newswire在上述公司中没有任何职位。新闻稿-如果您正在寻找完整的新闻稿分发，请联系：press@iamnewswire.com贡献者-IAM Newswire接受推介。如果您有兴趣成为IAM记者，请联系：contributors@iamnewswire.com</i></blockquote></p><p> The post Zooming in on Zoom's Solid But Not Good Enough Results appeared first on IAM Newswire.</p><p><blockquote>放大Zoom稳健但不够好的结果的帖子首先出现在IAM新闻专线上。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ZM":"Zoom"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2164872049","content_text":"Despite logging its first billion-dollar quarter, the stock of Zoom Video Communications (NASDAQ:ZM) fell almost 11% on Monday after the company posted a higher-than-expected earnings forecast for the full year. The revenue guidance exactly met expectations, but sales-growth rates fall to new lows. In simple words, the video platform has continued to grow, but not at the overly optimistic pace that analysts expected.\nQ2 Figures\nFor the quarter that ended on July 31st, revenue increased by 54% YoY in the quarter  and topping $1 billion for the first time as it amounted to $1.02 billion, also exceeding Refinitiv expectations of $991.0 million as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv. Adjusted net income came in 48% higher from the year-ago quarter, amounting to $1.36 per share, also exceeding $1.16 expected by Refinitiv. Free cash flow improved 22% as it improved to $455 million.\nGross margin improved from 72.3% in the previous quarter to 74.4%. Gross margin benefited from new data center capacity as well as lower usage during the summer, thanks in part to the school break. The Zoom Phone cloud-based phone service expanded from 1.5 million three months earlier to 2 million seats.\nOutlook\nDuring the quarter, Zoom announced it will acquire cloud contact-center software provider Five9, along with the availability of Zoom Events for premium online meetings. The video communications company also invested in event software maker Cvent that sought to go public through a SPAC.\nAs for the undergoing quarter, Zoom is guiding to 31% growth. Adjusted earnings per share are expected in the range between $1.07 to $1.08 with $1.015 billion to $1.020 billion in revenue.\nFor the full fiscal year, it improved its forecast as coronavirus case counts have increased and many companies delayed plans to reopen offices. Adjusted earnings are expected to be in the range between $4.75 to $4.79 per share with the revenue range being within $4.005 billion and $4.015 billion in revenue. Previous estimates for adjusted earnings were $4.56 to $4.61 and $3.98 billion to $3.99 billion for revenue.\nThe forecast is ahead of analysts' consensus estimates for both adjusted earnings per share and revenue, being $4.67 and $4.01 billion, respectively.\nThe guidance assumes strong growth for the direct and channel businesses, but also a weakness in the online business because of challenges encountered by smaller customers and consumers. Gross margin is expected to expand with students resuming classes.\nThe Verdict\nBy most standards, Zoom's business metrics look solid with 2,278 customers contributing $100,000 or more to its annual revenue. This is well over double its last year's big-client count. Customers with more than 10 employees vaulted over the half-million mark, up 36% YoY. On a trailing 12-month basis, net dollar expansion rates remained above 130%. But its results just weren't good enough for Wall Street who was not pleased to see the company calling for roughly flat third-quarter revenue compared to the second quarter.\nThis article is not a press release and is contributed by a verified independent journalist for IAMNewswire. It should not be construed as investment advice at any time please read the full disclosure. IAM Newswire does not hold any position in the mentioned companies. Press Releases – If you are looking for full Press release distribution contact: press@iamnewswire.com Contributors – IAM Newswire accepts pitches. If you're interested in becoming an IAM journalist contact: contributors@iamnewswire.com\nThe post Zooming in on Zoom's Solid But Not Good Enough Results appeared first on IAM Newswire.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ZM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":571,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":816915248,"gmtCreate":1630460100584,"gmtModify":1631891625366,"author":{"id":"3583806200035507","authorId":"3583806200035507","name":"HuiBing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583806200035507","idStr":"3583806200035507"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/816915248","repostId":"1121927990","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":698,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":839914490,"gmtCreate":1629116226410,"gmtModify":1631891625378,"author":{"id":"3583806200035507","authorId":"3583806200035507","name":"HuiBing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583806200035507","idStr":"3583806200035507"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/839914490","repostId":"1172009872","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":456,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":830144350,"gmtCreate":1629037286870,"gmtModify":1631891625390,"author":{"id":"3583806200035507","authorId":"3583806200035507","name":"HuiBing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583806200035507","idStr":"3583806200035507"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/830144350","repostId":"1127633167","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127633167","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628997765,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1127633167?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-15 11:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"These 10 Standout Stocks Could Be the Next Amazon<blockquote>这10只杰出股票可能成为下一个亚马逊</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127633167","media":"Barrons","summary":"One of the most popular buzzwords in investing today is “compounders.” Growth-oriented investors loo","content":"<p>One of the most popular buzzwords in investing today is “compounders.” Growth-oriented investors looking for the next Amazon.com, Costco Wholesale, Nike, or Visa seek to identify companies capable of generating double-digit compound growth in revenue and earnings—preferably both—for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>当今投资界最流行的流行语之一是“复合者”。寻找下一个亚马逊、Costco Wholesale、Nike或Visa的成长型投资者寻求寻找能够在未来几年实现收入和盈利两位数复合增长（最好是两者兼而有之）的公司。</blockquote></p><p> The idea is that stock prices should compound in line with revenue and profits, enabling investors to generate high returns over a holding period of five to 10 years. The ultimate goal is to find the elusive “10 bagger”—a stock&nbsp;that returns 10 times what you paid for it.</p><p><blockquote>这个想法是，股价应该与收入和利润保持一致，使投资者能够在五到十年的持有期内产生高回报。最终目标是找到难以捉摸的“10 bagger”——一只回报率是你购买价格10倍的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street analyst notes and client letters from investment pros are replete with compounder references. Many of the next generation of value managers, identified&nbsp;in a&nbsp;<i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;cover story in May, are seeking such shares, rather than the traditional value fare of cheap stocks.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街分析师的报告和投资专业人士的客户信函中充满了compounder的参考资料。许多下一代价值管理者，在<i>巴伦周刊</i>五月的封面故事，正在寻找这样的股票，而不是传统的廉价股票的价值票价。</blockquote></p><p> Their search has become more challenging, because buyers are paying lofty prices for high-growth stories. Really big winners are scarce. Only about 35 companies in each of a long series of 10-year periods have compounded their stock prices at 20% or more annually, resulting in at least a sixfold increase, according to Durable Capital Partners.</p><p><blockquote>他们的搜索变得更具挑战性，因为买家正在为高增长的故事支付高昂的价格。真正的大赢家很少。Durable Capital Partners的数据显示，在一系列10年期间，只有约35家公司的股价每年复合增长率达到20%或以上，导致股价至少上涨了六倍。</blockquote></p><p> Many investors are happy to stick with large, well-known compounders, such as&nbsp;Alphabet(ticker: GOOGL),Mastercard(MA),UnitedHealth Group(UNH), and&nbsp;Eli Lilly(LLY).</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者很乐意继续投资大型知名复合商，例如Alphabet（股票代码：GOOGL）、万事达卡（MA）、联合健康集团（UNH）和礼来公司（LLY）。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;sought to identify smaller candidates. We talked to investment managers and came up with an eclectic list of 10 stocks, most with market values under $10 billion. Here are the selections, in alphabetical order:</p><p><blockquote><i>巴伦周刊</i>试图确定较小的候选人。我们与投资经理进行了交谈，并列出了一份包含10只股票的折衷清单，其中大多数股票的市值低于100亿美元。以下是按字母顺序排列的选择：</blockquote></p><p> Strong and Steady Wins the RaceHere are 10 stocks that growth investors have identified as being able to generate consistently high growth in revenues or profits for many years.</p><p><blockquote>强劲而稳定的胜利以下是成长型投资者认为能够多年来持续实现收入或利润高增长的10只股票。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <thead>   <tr>    <th>Company / Ticker</th>    <th>Recent Price</th>    <th>YTD Change</th>    <th>2021E P/E</th>    <th>2021E Price/Sales</th>    <th>2022E P/E</th>    <th>2022E Price/Sales</th>    <th>LT Growth Rate*</th>    <th>Market Value (bil)</th>    <th>Comment</th>   </tr>  </thead>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td>Amedysis / AMED</td>    <td>$185.15</td>    <td>-37%</td>    <td>30.2</td>    <td>2.7</td>    <td>27.7</td>    <td>2.4</td>    <td>10.5%</td>    <td>$6.3</td>    <td>Leader in home health care</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amyris / AMRS</td>    <td>13.64</td>    <td>121</td>    <td>NM</td>    <td>10.4</td>    <td>NM</td>    <td>9.7</td>    <td>NA</td>    <td>4.1</td>    <td>Leading company in synthetic biology</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Booz Allen Hamilton Holding / BAH</td>    <td>81.73</td>    <td>-6</td>    <td>19.4</td>    <td>1.3</td>    <td>17.7</td>    <td>1.2</td>    <td>8.6</td>    <td>11.0</td>    <td>Defense-department consultant</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>J.B. Hunt Transport Services / JBHT</td>    <td>172.76</td>    <td>26</td>    <td>25.8</td>    <td>1.5</td>    <td>22.2</td>    <td>1.4</td>    <td>18.4</td>    <td>18.2</td>    <td>Strong in intermodal freight</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Marriott Vacations Worldwide / VAC</td>    <td>147.15</td>    <td>7</td>    <td>40.9</td>    <td>1.6</td>    <td>15.7</td>    <td>1.4</td>    <td>NA</td>    <td>6.3</td>    <td>Top company in vacation timeshares</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>SiteOne Landscape Supply / SITE</td>    <td>197.10</td>    <td>24</td>    <td>45.7</td>    <td>2.6</td>    <td>43.5</td>    <td>2.5</td>    <td>19.3</td>    <td>8.8</td>    <td>Big supplier of landscaping supplies</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Staar Surgical / STAA</td>    <td>138.19</td>    <td>74</td>    <td>192.3</td>    <td>28.6</td>    <td>140.8</td>    <td>22.5</td>    <td>30.0</td>    <td>6.6</td>    <td>Maker of implantable lens for myopia</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Stitch Fix / SFIX</td>    <td>44.38</td>    <td>-24</td>    <td>NM</td>    <td>1.9</td>    <td>1890.3</td>    <td>1.7</td>    <td>30.0</td>    <td>4.8</td>    <td>Data-driven subscription clothing firm</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Trex / TREX</td>    <td>105.94</td>    <td>27</td>    <td>51.9</td>    <td>10.5</td>    <td>43.6</td>    <td>9.3</td>    <td>18.8</td>    <td>12.2</td>    <td>Top maker of synthetic wood decking</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Upwork / UPWK</td>    <td>44.31</td>    <td>28</td>    <td>NM</td>    <td>11.4</td>    <td>556.8</td>    <td>9.2</td>    <td>NA</td>    <td>5.7</td>    <td>Online clearinghouse for free-lancers</td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> E=Estimate. BAH estimates are for fiscal years ending March 2022 and March 23. SFIX estimates are for fiscal years ending July 2022 and July 2023. NM=Not Meaningful. NA=Not Available. *The annual EPS growth the company can sustain over the next 3-5 years.</p><p><blockquote><table><thead><tr><th>公司/股票代码</th><th>近期价格</th><th>年初至今变化</th><th>2021年预计市盈率</th><th>2021E价格/销售额</th><th>2022年预计市盈率</th><th>2022E价格/销售额</th><th>LT增长率*</th><th>市值（bil）</th><th>评论</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Amedysis/AMED</td><td>$185.15</td><td>-37%</td><td>30.2</td><td>2.7</td><td>27.7</td><td>2.4</td><td>10.5%</td><td>$6.3</td><td>家庭医疗保健领域的领导者</td></tr><tr><td>Amyris/AMRS</td><td>13.64</td><td>121</td><td>NM</td><td>10.4</td><td>NM</td><td>9.7</td><td>NA</td><td>4.1</td><td>合成生物学领域的领先公司</td></tr><tr><td>博思艾伦控股/BAH</td><td>81.73</td><td>-6</td><td>19.4</td><td>1.3</td><td>17.7</td><td>1.2</td><td>8.6</td><td>11.0</td><td>国防部顾问</td></tr><tr><td>J.B.亨特运输服务/JBHT</td><td>172.76</td><td>26</td><td>25.8</td><td>1.5</td><td>22.2</td><td>1.4</td><td>18.4</td><td>18.2</td><td>多式联运货运实力强劲</td></tr><tr><td>万豪度假全球/VAC</td><td>147.15</td><td>7</td><td>40.9</td><td>1.6</td><td>15.7</td><td>1.4</td><td>NA</td><td>6.3</td><td>度假分时度假顶级公司</td></tr><tr><td>SiteOne景观供应/站点</td><td>197.10</td><td>24</td><td>45.7</td><td>2.6</td><td>43.5</td><td>2.5</td><td>19.3</td><td>8.8</td><td>园林绿化用品大供应商</td></tr><tr><td>Staar外科/STAA</td><td>138.19</td><td>74</td><td>192.3</td><td>28.6</td><td>140.8</td><td>22.5</td><td>30.0</td><td>6.6</td><td>近视植入式镜片制造商</td></tr><tr><td>缝合固定/SFIX</td><td>44.38</td><td>-24</td><td>NM</td><td>1.9</td><td>1890.3</td><td>1.7</td><td>30.0</td><td>4.8</td><td>数据驱动的订阅服装公司</td></tr><tr><td>Trex/Trex</td><td>105.94</td><td>27</td><td>51.9</td><td>10.5</td><td>43.6</td><td>9.3</td><td>18.8</td><td>12.2</td><td>顶级合成木地板制造商</td></tr><tr><td>Upwork/UPWK</td><td>44.31</td><td>28</td><td>NM</td><td>11.4</td><td>556.8</td><td>9.2</td><td>NA</td><td>5.7</td><td>自由职业者在线信息交换所</td></tr></tbody></table>E=估计值。BAH预估适用于截至2022年3月和3月23日的财年。SFIX预估为截至2022年7月和2023年7月的财年。NM=无意义。NA=不可用。*公司未来3-5年可维持的年度每股收益增长。</blockquote></p><p> Source: FactSet</p><p><blockquote>来源：FactSet</blockquote></p><p> Amedisys(AMED), a provider of home healthcare and hospice services, has a national footprint in a still-fragmented business.</p><p><blockquote>Amedisys(AMED)是一家家庭医疗保健和临终关怀服务提供商，业务仍然分散，业务遍及全国。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “There is going to be massive consolidation of the industry” predicts Dan Cole, a manager of the Columbia Small-Cap Growth fund. “Healthcare is moving to the home.”</p><p><blockquote>哥伦比亚小盘成长基金经理丹·科尔预测，“该行业将会出现大规模整合”。“医疗保健正在向家庭转移。”</blockquote></p><p> Amedisys stock is up more than tenfold in the past decade. But the shares, around $185, are off nearly 30% after the company recently cut 2021 financial guidance, citing Covid-related staffing and cost issues, mostly in acquired hospice operations. The 2021 earnings estimate is now $6.13 a share, down from nearly $7. The stock trades for 30 times projected 2021 profits. Cole says that the company remains capable of generating 10% annual gains in earnings per share.</p><p><blockquote>Amedisys股价在过去十年中上涨了十倍多。但该公司最近以与新冠疫情相关的人员配备和成本问题（主要是收购的临终关怀业务）为由，下调了2021年财务指引，股价约为185美元，下跌了近30%。2021年盈利预期目前为每股6.13美元，低于近7美元。该股的交易价格是2021年预计利润的30倍。科尔表示，该公司仍有能力实现每股收益10%的年增长。</blockquote></p><p> Amyris(AMRS) is a leader in synthetic biology. It fans say its opportunity is to supplant, in an eco-friendly way, a range of products now made from petrochemicals, animals, and plants.</p><p><blockquote>Amyris(AMRS)是合成生物学领域的领导者。它的粉丝们说，它的机会是以一种环保的方式取代一系列现在由石化产品、动物和植物制成的产品。</blockquote></p><p> Using genetically re-engineered yeast and sugar cane, Amyris produces such things as squalane, a high-end moisturizer formerly made from shark livers; vanillin, the flavoring for vanilla; and a no-calorie sweetener normally derived from plants. The stock trades around $13.</p><p><blockquote>Amyris使用基因改造的酵母和甘蔗生产角鲨烷等产品，这是一种以前由鲨鱼肝制成的高端保湿剂；香草醛，香草的调味料；和通常来源于植物的无热量甜味剂。该股交易价格约为13美元。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;wrote&nbsp;favorably on the company in July. Amyris sees sales reaching $2 billion by 2025, up from an estimated $400 million this year, driven by its consumer brands.</p><p><blockquote><i>巴伦周刊</i>7月份对该公司进行了好评。Amyris预计，在其消费品牌的推动下，到2025年销售额将达到20亿美元，高于今年预计的4亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> “The world needs clean chemistry, and Amyris is the point on the spear to create it,” says Randy Baron, a portfolio manager at Pinnacle Associates, which owns Amyris shares. He thinks they could hit $75 by the end of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>拥有Amyris股票的Pinnacle Associates的投资组合经理兰迪·巴伦(Randy Baron)表示：“世界需要清洁化学，而Amyris是创造清洁化学的关键。”他认为到2022年底它们可能会达到75美元。</blockquote></p><p> Booz Allen Hamilton Holding(BAH) is an important consultant to the Defense Department and other agencies. The U.S. government accounted for 97% of its revenue in its latest fiscal year. Booz Allen has built robust ties to the government over the years by providing an array of services, like cybersecurity. Its stock trades around $81, for a 1.8% yield.</p><p><blockquote>博思艾伦控股公司（BAH）是国防部和其他机构的重要顾问。美国政府最近一财年的收入占其收入的97%。多年来，博思艾伦通过提供网络安全等一系列服务与政府建立了牢固的关系。其股价约为81美元，收益率为1.8%。</blockquote></p><p> “It has built a strong, partnership-like culture and has a long record of steady growth,” says Josh Spencer, manager of the T. Rowe Price New Horizons fund. He sees Booz Allen as capable of generating 9% to 10% annual growth in revenue and yearly gains of 15% to 16% in earnings, in line with its historical performance. The stock is off 20% from its peak of $100, amid concerns about more restrained military spending. Spencer sees the pullback as a buying opportunity, with the stock valued at less than 20 times earnings.</p><p><blockquote>T.Rowe Price New Horizons基金经理乔什·斯宾塞(Josh Spencer)表示：“它建立了强大的、类似伙伴关系的文化，并拥有长期稳定增长的记录。”他认为博思艾伦有能力实现9%至10%的收入年增长率和15%至16%的盈利年增长率，与其历史表现一致。由于担心军费开支更加克制，该股较100美元的峰值下跌了20%。斯宾塞将回调视为买入机会，该股的市盈率不到20倍。</blockquote></p><p> J.B. Hunt Transport Services(JBHT) is a leader in intermodal freight, which involves the fuel-efficient movement of trucks over rail lines. It has been one of the most successful trucking companies. Its stock has risen 30-fold over the past 20 years, to a recent $173. “It has an incredible franchise,” says Henry Ellenbogen, chief investment officer at Durable Capital Partners and a member of the&nbsp;Barron’s Roundtable.</p><p><blockquote>J.B.亨特运输服务公司(JBHT)是多式联运货运领域的领导者，该领域涉及卡车在铁路线上的省油运输。它是最成功的卡车运输公司之一。其股价在过去20年中上涨了30倍，最近达到173美元。“它拥有令人难以置信的特许经营权，”Durable Capital Partners首席投资官、《巴伦周刊》圆桌会议成员亨利·埃伦博根(Henry Ellenbogen)表示。</blockquote></p><p> J.B. Hunt’s relationship with the Burlington Northern Santa Fe railroad gives it a strong position in intermodal freight, he notes. J.B. Hunt also has a growing business taking over the trucking operations of smaller companies. And it is involved in digital freight brokerage—matching truckers with shipping customers.</p><p><blockquote>J.B.他指出，亨特与伯灵顿北圣达菲铁路公司的关系使其在多式联运货运领域拥有强大的地位。J.B.亨特的业务也在不断增长，接管了小公司的卡车运输业务。它还参与数字货运经纪业务——为卡车司机和航运客户牵线搭桥。</blockquote></p><p> Ellenbogen says the stock is reasonable at 22 times estimated 2022 profits, given a mid-teens annual growth outlook for earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Ellenbogen表示，考虑到盈利年增长率为十几岁左右，该股2022年预计利润的22倍是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> Marriott Vacations Worldwide(VAC) is one of the top companies in the timeshare industry. It has 700,000 owners, a resilient business model with significant revenue from fees, and more exposure than its peers to luxury properties in places including Hawaii and Orlando, Fla.</p><p><blockquote>万豪度假全球（VAC）是分时度假行业的顶级公司之一。它拥有700,000名业主，拥有富有弹性的商业模式，从费用中获得可观的收入，并且比同行更多地接触夏威夷和佛罗里达州奥兰多等地的豪华房产。</blockquote></p><p> “It has the best customer base, with the highest spending and an impeccable balance sheet,” says David Baron, a manager of the Baron Focused Growth fund. Marriott Vacations, whose shares recently were trading around $145, should reinstate its dividend later this year, he adds.</p><p><blockquote>Baron Focused Growth基金经理David Baron表示：“它拥有最好的客户群、最高的支出和无可挑剔的资产负债表。”他补充道，万豪度假公司的股价最近约为145美元，应该会在今年晚些时候恢复股息。</blockquote></p><p> The shares, Baron argues, are cheap at a 11% free-cash-flow yield, based on 2022 estimates. He says that the stock, little changed since 2018, could produce 20% annual returns for shareholders in the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>Baron认为，根据2022年的预测，该股的自由现金流收益率为11%，价格低廉。他表示，该股自2018年以来几乎没有变化，未来几年可能为股东带来20%的年回报率。</blockquote></p><p> SiteOne Landscape Supply(SITE) is the country’s top supplier of landscaping products, with ample opportunity to expand, given that it has just a 13% market share in a highly fragmented industry.</p><p><blockquote>SiteOne Landscape Supply(SITE)是该国最大的景观美化产品供应商，鉴于其在高度分散的行业中仅占13%的市场份额，因此有充足的扩张机会。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s growing organically and has lots of acquisition opportunities,” says Columbia’s Cole, who considers the company to be capable of 10% to 15% annual revenue growth.</p><p><blockquote>哥伦比亚大学的科尔表示：“它正在有机增长，并且有很多收购机会。”他认为该公司的年收入有能力增长10%至15%。</blockquote></p><p> The stock, around $197, has a rich valuation, trading for 43 times projected 2022 earnings of $4.54 a share.</p><p><blockquote>该股股价约为197美元，估值很高，交易价格是2022年预计每股收益4.54美元的43倍。</blockquote></p><p> Staar Surgical(STAA) has developed an implantable lens to correct myopia (nearsightedness). That addresses a potentially huge market, given the rising global incidence of that vision problem. The company expects the lens, which has been available in Europe and Asia for at least five years, to be on the U.S. market in the fourth quarter, pending Food and Drug Administration approval.</p><p><blockquote>Staar外科公司（STAA）开发了一种可植入晶状体来矫正近视（近视）。鉴于全球视力问题的发病率不断上升，这解决了一个潜在的巨大市场。该公司预计，这款镜片已在欧洲和亚洲上市至少五年，将于第四季度进入美国市场，等待美国食品和药物管理局的批准。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “It could do substantial volumes,’’ says Doug Brodie, a global manager at Baillie Gifford. “It’s early in a journey and is largely devoid of competition.”</p><p><blockquote>Baillie Gifford全球经理道格·布罗迪(Doug Brodie)表示：“它的销量可能会很大。它还处于起步阶段，基本上没有竞争。”</blockquote></p><p> Lenses for both eyes can be implanted in less than an hour, and they don’t involve the removal of the natural lenses. The wholesale cost in the U.S. could be around $1,000 per lens.</p><p><blockquote>双眼的晶状体可以在不到一个小时内植入，而且不需要移除天然晶状体。在美国，每个镜片的批发成本可能在1000美元左右。</blockquote></p><p> At a recent $138, Staar shares are richly valued at more than 20 times projected 2022 sales and 140 times estimated 2022 earnings. But the market opportunity is enormous: Some five billion people worldwide could have myopia by 2050.</p><p><blockquote>Staar股价最近为138美元，其估值超过2022年预计销售额的20倍，是2022年预计收益的140倍。但市场机会是巨大的：到2050年，全球约有50亿人可能患有近视。</blockquote></p><p> Stitch Fix(SFIX) has developed a subscription service for clothing, shoes, and other accessories and boasts over four million customers.</p><p><blockquote>Stitch Fix(SFIX)开发了服装、鞋子和其他配饰的订阅服务，拥有超过400万客户。</blockquote></p><p> “This could be the Nordstrom of the future,” says Mario Cibelli, chief investment officer at Marathon Partners Equity Management, a Stitch Fix holder. “This a potentially huge market and nobody is addressing it in the same way.” Using a staff of 6,000 personal stylists and lots of data, Stitch Fix seeks to identify subscriber tastes to generate high satisfaction and limit returns on packages sent at intervals and determined by subscribers.</p><p><blockquote>“这可能是未来的诺德斯特龙，”Stitch Fix持有者Marathon Partners Equity Management首席投资官马里奥·西贝利(Mario Cibelli)表示。“这是一个潜在的巨大市场，没有人以同样的方式解决这个问题。”Stitch Fix利用6000名个人造型师和大量数据，试图确定订户的品味，以产生高满意度，并限制每隔一段时间发送并由订户决定的包裹的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Its shares, around $44, are down 60% from their level earlier in the year, on investors’ worries about potential churn and the business’s ultimate profitability.</p><p><blockquote>由于投资者对潜在客户流失和业务最终盈利能力的担忧，其股价约为44美元，较今年早些时候的水平下跌了60%。</blockquote></p><p> Yet Cibelli sees revenue growth of 20%-plus annually, opportunities outside its current U.S. and U.K. markets, and a potentially very profitable business in two to three years.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Cibelli预计收入每年将增长20%以上，在当前美国和英国市场之外还有机会，并且在两到三年内业务可能会非常有利可图。</blockquote></p><p> Trex(TREX) is the top producer of a high-end wood alternative for decks that comes from 95% recycled material, making it an eco-friendly housing play. The shares, at $105, trade for 43 times projected 2022 earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Trex(TREX)是甲板高端木材替代品的顶级生产商，其95%来自回收材料，使其成为一种环保的住房。该股股价为105美元，是2022年预计市盈率的43倍。</blockquote></p><p> T. Rowe Price’s Spencer views Trex as worth the price, based on his view that it can generate sustainable annual revenue growth of 15% to 20%. Earnings are expected to climb by about 20% in 2022 and at a similar pace in the following years. “If you roll the clock forward three years, it doesn’t look as expensive,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>T.Rowe Price的Spencer认为Trex物有所值，因为他认为它可以产生15%至20%的可持续年收入增长。预计2022年盈利将增长约20%，并在接下来的几年中以类似的速度增长。“如果你把时间拨快三年，它看起来并没有那么贵，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Upwork(UPWK), an online marketplace for freelance workers, is favored by Baillie Gifford’s Brodie, who says it offers a play on the greater acceptance of freelancers by businesses.</p><p><blockquote>Upwork(UPWK)是一个面向自由职业者的在线市场，受到Baillie Gifford的Brodie的青睐，他表示，它可以让企业更好地接受自由职业者。</blockquote></p><p> The shares, recently around $44, aren’t cheap. Upwork is valued at $5.7 billion, or more than 10 times this year’s projected sales of nearly $500 million. It operates at a slight loss.</p><p><blockquote>该股最近约为44美元，并不便宜。Upwork的估值为57亿美元，是今年预计销售额近5亿美元的10倍以上。它的运营略有亏损。</blockquote></p><p> The investment case is about rapid sales growth leading to ample earnings. Sales are expected to rise by 30%-plus this year and 25% for 2022.</p><p><blockquote>投资案例是关于快速销售增长带来丰厚收益。预计今年销售额将增长30%以上，2022年将增长25%。</blockquote></p><p> “Freelancers are more accepted by small to midsize business, but they’ve been frowned on by the HR departments at large businesses,” Brodie says. Upwork aims to change that perception by vetting its freelancers and by offering thousands of skill sets. “Upwork could become a trusted partner for an increasing number of enterprise-grade partners,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>“自由职业者更容易被中小型企业接受，但大型企业的人力资源部门却不喜欢他们，”布罗迪说。Upwork旨在通过审查自由职业者和提供数千种技能来改变这种看法。“Upwork可以成为越来越多企业级合作伙伴值得信赖的合作伙伴，”他说。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>These 10 Standout Stocks Could Be the Next Amazon<blockquote>这10只杰出股票可能成为下一个亚马逊</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThese 10 Standout Stocks Could Be the Next Amazon<blockquote>这10只杰出股票可能成为下一个亚马逊</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-15 11:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>One of the most popular buzzwords in investing today is “compounders.” Growth-oriented investors looking for the next Amazon.com, Costco Wholesale, Nike, or Visa seek to identify companies capable of generating double-digit compound growth in revenue and earnings—preferably both—for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>当今投资界最流行的流行语之一是“复合者”。寻找下一个亚马逊、Costco Wholesale、Nike或Visa的成长型投资者寻求寻找能够在未来几年实现收入和盈利两位数复合增长（最好是两者兼而有之）的公司。</blockquote></p><p> The idea is that stock prices should compound in line with revenue and profits, enabling investors to generate high returns over a holding period of five to 10 years. The ultimate goal is to find the elusive “10 bagger”—a stock&nbsp;that returns 10 times what you paid for it.</p><p><blockquote>这个想法是，股价应该与收入和利润保持一致，使投资者能够在五到十年的持有期内产生高回报。最终目标是找到难以捉摸的“10 bagger”——一只回报率是你购买价格10倍的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street analyst notes and client letters from investment pros are replete with compounder references. Many of the next generation of value managers, identified&nbsp;in a&nbsp;<i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;cover story in May, are seeking such shares, rather than the traditional value fare of cheap stocks.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街分析师的报告和投资专业人士的客户信函中充满了compounder的参考资料。许多下一代价值管理者，在<i>巴伦周刊</i>五月的封面故事，正在寻找这样的股票，而不是传统的廉价股票的价值票价。</blockquote></p><p> Their search has become more challenging, because buyers are paying lofty prices for high-growth stories. Really big winners are scarce. Only about 35 companies in each of a long series of 10-year periods have compounded their stock prices at 20% or more annually, resulting in at least a sixfold increase, according to Durable Capital Partners.</p><p><blockquote>他们的搜索变得更具挑战性，因为买家正在为高增长的故事支付高昂的价格。真正的大赢家很少。Durable Capital Partners的数据显示，在一系列10年期间，只有约35家公司的股价每年复合增长率达到20%或以上，导致股价至少上涨了六倍。</blockquote></p><p> Many investors are happy to stick with large, well-known compounders, such as&nbsp;Alphabet(ticker: GOOGL),Mastercard(MA),UnitedHealth Group(UNH), and&nbsp;Eli Lilly(LLY).</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者很乐意继续投资大型知名复合商，例如Alphabet（股票代码：GOOGL）、万事达卡（MA）、联合健康集团（UNH）和礼来公司（LLY）。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;sought to identify smaller candidates. We talked to investment managers and came up with an eclectic list of 10 stocks, most with market values under $10 billion. Here are the selections, in alphabetical order:</p><p><blockquote><i>巴伦周刊</i>试图确定较小的候选人。我们与投资经理进行了交谈，并列出了一份包含10只股票的折衷清单，其中大多数股票的市值低于100亿美元。以下是按字母顺序排列的选择：</blockquote></p><p> Strong and Steady Wins the RaceHere are 10 stocks that growth investors have identified as being able to generate consistently high growth in revenues or profits for many years.</p><p><blockquote>强劲而稳定的胜利以下是成长型投资者认为能够多年来持续实现收入或利润高增长的10只股票。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <thead>   <tr>    <th>Company / Ticker</th>    <th>Recent Price</th>    <th>YTD Change</th>    <th>2021E P/E</th>    <th>2021E Price/Sales</th>    <th>2022E P/E</th>    <th>2022E Price/Sales</th>    <th>LT Growth Rate*</th>    <th>Market Value (bil)</th>    <th>Comment</th>   </tr>  </thead>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td>Amedysis / AMED</td>    <td>$185.15</td>    <td>-37%</td>    <td>30.2</td>    <td>2.7</td>    <td>27.7</td>    <td>2.4</td>    <td>10.5%</td>    <td>$6.3</td>    <td>Leader in home health care</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amyris / AMRS</td>    <td>13.64</td>    <td>121</td>    <td>NM</td>    <td>10.4</td>    <td>NM</td>    <td>9.7</td>    <td>NA</td>    <td>4.1</td>    <td>Leading company in synthetic biology</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Booz Allen Hamilton Holding / BAH</td>    <td>81.73</td>    <td>-6</td>    <td>19.4</td>    <td>1.3</td>    <td>17.7</td>    <td>1.2</td>    <td>8.6</td>    <td>11.0</td>    <td>Defense-department consultant</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>J.B. Hunt Transport Services / JBHT</td>    <td>172.76</td>    <td>26</td>    <td>25.8</td>    <td>1.5</td>    <td>22.2</td>    <td>1.4</td>    <td>18.4</td>    <td>18.2</td>    <td>Strong in intermodal freight</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Marriott Vacations Worldwide / VAC</td>    <td>147.15</td>    <td>7</td>    <td>40.9</td>    <td>1.6</td>    <td>15.7</td>    <td>1.4</td>    <td>NA</td>    <td>6.3</td>    <td>Top company in vacation timeshares</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>SiteOne Landscape Supply / SITE</td>    <td>197.10</td>    <td>24</td>    <td>45.7</td>    <td>2.6</td>    <td>43.5</td>    <td>2.5</td>    <td>19.3</td>    <td>8.8</td>    <td>Big supplier of landscaping supplies</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Staar Surgical / STAA</td>    <td>138.19</td>    <td>74</td>    <td>192.3</td>    <td>28.6</td>    <td>140.8</td>    <td>22.5</td>    <td>30.0</td>    <td>6.6</td>    <td>Maker of implantable lens for myopia</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Stitch Fix / SFIX</td>    <td>44.38</td>    <td>-24</td>    <td>NM</td>    <td>1.9</td>    <td>1890.3</td>    <td>1.7</td>    <td>30.0</td>    <td>4.8</td>    <td>Data-driven subscription clothing firm</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Trex / TREX</td>    <td>105.94</td>    <td>27</td>    <td>51.9</td>    <td>10.5</td>    <td>43.6</td>    <td>9.3</td>    <td>18.8</td>    <td>12.2</td>    <td>Top maker of synthetic wood decking</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Upwork / UPWK</td>    <td>44.31</td>    <td>28</td>    <td>NM</td>    <td>11.4</td>    <td>556.8</td>    <td>9.2</td>    <td>NA</td>    <td>5.7</td>    <td>Online clearinghouse for free-lancers</td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> E=Estimate. BAH estimates are for fiscal years ending March 2022 and March 23. SFIX estimates are for fiscal years ending July 2022 and July 2023. NM=Not Meaningful. NA=Not Available. *The annual EPS growth the company can sustain over the next 3-5 years.</p><p><blockquote><table><thead><tr><th>公司/股票代码</th><th>近期价格</th><th>年初至今变化</th><th>2021年预计市盈率</th><th>2021E价格/销售额</th><th>2022年预计市盈率</th><th>2022E价格/销售额</th><th>LT增长率*</th><th>市值（bil）</th><th>评论</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Amedysis/AMED</td><td>$185.15</td><td>-37%</td><td>30.2</td><td>2.7</td><td>27.7</td><td>2.4</td><td>10.5%</td><td>$6.3</td><td>家庭医疗保健领域的领导者</td></tr><tr><td>Amyris/AMRS</td><td>13.64</td><td>121</td><td>NM</td><td>10.4</td><td>NM</td><td>9.7</td><td>NA</td><td>4.1</td><td>合成生物学领域的领先公司</td></tr><tr><td>博思艾伦控股/BAH</td><td>81.73</td><td>-6</td><td>19.4</td><td>1.3</td><td>17.7</td><td>1.2</td><td>8.6</td><td>11.0</td><td>国防部顾问</td></tr><tr><td>J.B.亨特运输服务/JBHT</td><td>172.76</td><td>26</td><td>25.8</td><td>1.5</td><td>22.2</td><td>1.4</td><td>18.4</td><td>18.2</td><td>多式联运货运实力强劲</td></tr><tr><td>万豪度假全球/VAC</td><td>147.15</td><td>7</td><td>40.9</td><td>1.6</td><td>15.7</td><td>1.4</td><td>NA</td><td>6.3</td><td>度假分时度假顶级公司</td></tr><tr><td>SiteOne景观供应/站点</td><td>197.10</td><td>24</td><td>45.7</td><td>2.6</td><td>43.5</td><td>2.5</td><td>19.3</td><td>8.8</td><td>园林绿化用品大供应商</td></tr><tr><td>Staar外科/STAA</td><td>138.19</td><td>74</td><td>192.3</td><td>28.6</td><td>140.8</td><td>22.5</td><td>30.0</td><td>6.6</td><td>近视植入式镜片制造商</td></tr><tr><td>缝合固定/SFIX</td><td>44.38</td><td>-24</td><td>NM</td><td>1.9</td><td>1890.3</td><td>1.7</td><td>30.0</td><td>4.8</td><td>数据驱动的订阅服装公司</td></tr><tr><td>Trex/Trex</td><td>105.94</td><td>27</td><td>51.9</td><td>10.5</td><td>43.6</td><td>9.3</td><td>18.8</td><td>12.2</td><td>顶级合成木地板制造商</td></tr><tr><td>Upwork/UPWK</td><td>44.31</td><td>28</td><td>NM</td><td>11.4</td><td>556.8</td><td>9.2</td><td>NA</td><td>5.7</td><td>自由职业者在线信息交换所</td></tr></tbody></table>E=估计值。BAH预估适用于截至2022年3月和3月23日的财年。SFIX预估为截至2022年7月和2023年7月的财年。NM=无意义。NA=不可用。*公司未来3-5年可维持的年度每股收益增长。</blockquote></p><p> Source: FactSet</p><p><blockquote>来源：FactSet</blockquote></p><p> Amedisys(AMED), a provider of home healthcare and hospice services, has a national footprint in a still-fragmented business.</p><p><blockquote>Amedisys(AMED)是一家家庭医疗保健和临终关怀服务提供商，业务仍然分散，业务遍及全国。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “There is going to be massive consolidation of the industry” predicts Dan Cole, a manager of the Columbia Small-Cap Growth fund. “Healthcare is moving to the home.”</p><p><blockquote>哥伦比亚小盘成长基金经理丹·科尔预测，“该行业将会出现大规模整合”。“医疗保健正在向家庭转移。”</blockquote></p><p> Amedisys stock is up more than tenfold in the past decade. But the shares, around $185, are off nearly 30% after the company recently cut 2021 financial guidance, citing Covid-related staffing and cost issues, mostly in acquired hospice operations. The 2021 earnings estimate is now $6.13 a share, down from nearly $7. The stock trades for 30 times projected 2021 profits. Cole says that the company remains capable of generating 10% annual gains in earnings per share.</p><p><blockquote>Amedisys股价在过去十年中上涨了十倍多。但该公司最近以与新冠疫情相关的人员配备和成本问题（主要是收购的临终关怀业务）为由，下调了2021年财务指引，股价约为185美元，下跌了近30%。2021年盈利预期目前为每股6.13美元，低于近7美元。该股的交易价格是2021年预计利润的30倍。科尔表示，该公司仍有能力实现每股收益10%的年增长。</blockquote></p><p> Amyris(AMRS) is a leader in synthetic biology. It fans say its opportunity is to supplant, in an eco-friendly way, a range of products now made from petrochemicals, animals, and plants.</p><p><blockquote>Amyris(AMRS)是合成生物学领域的领导者。它的粉丝们说，它的机会是以一种环保的方式取代一系列现在由石化产品、动物和植物制成的产品。</blockquote></p><p> Using genetically re-engineered yeast and sugar cane, Amyris produces such things as squalane, a high-end moisturizer formerly made from shark livers; vanillin, the flavoring for vanilla; and a no-calorie sweetener normally derived from plants. The stock trades around $13.</p><p><blockquote>Amyris使用基因改造的酵母和甘蔗生产角鲨烷等产品，这是一种以前由鲨鱼肝制成的高端保湿剂；香草醛，香草的调味料；和通常来源于植物的无热量甜味剂。该股交易价格约为13美元。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;wrote&nbsp;favorably on the company in July. Amyris sees sales reaching $2 billion by 2025, up from an estimated $400 million this year, driven by its consumer brands.</p><p><blockquote><i>巴伦周刊</i>7月份对该公司进行了好评。Amyris预计，在其消费品牌的推动下，到2025年销售额将达到20亿美元，高于今年预计的4亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> “The world needs clean chemistry, and Amyris is the point on the spear to create it,” says Randy Baron, a portfolio manager at Pinnacle Associates, which owns Amyris shares. He thinks they could hit $75 by the end of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>拥有Amyris股票的Pinnacle Associates的投资组合经理兰迪·巴伦(Randy Baron)表示：“世界需要清洁化学，而Amyris是创造清洁化学的关键。”他认为到2022年底它们可能会达到75美元。</blockquote></p><p> Booz Allen Hamilton Holding(BAH) is an important consultant to the Defense Department and other agencies. The U.S. government accounted for 97% of its revenue in its latest fiscal year. Booz Allen has built robust ties to the government over the years by providing an array of services, like cybersecurity. Its stock trades around $81, for a 1.8% yield.</p><p><blockquote>博思艾伦控股公司（BAH）是国防部和其他机构的重要顾问。美国政府最近一财年的收入占其收入的97%。多年来，博思艾伦通过提供网络安全等一系列服务与政府建立了牢固的关系。其股价约为81美元，收益率为1.8%。</blockquote></p><p> “It has built a strong, partnership-like culture and has a long record of steady growth,” says Josh Spencer, manager of the T. Rowe Price New Horizons fund. He sees Booz Allen as capable of generating 9% to 10% annual growth in revenue and yearly gains of 15% to 16% in earnings, in line with its historical performance. The stock is off 20% from its peak of $100, amid concerns about more restrained military spending. Spencer sees the pullback as a buying opportunity, with the stock valued at less than 20 times earnings.</p><p><blockquote>T.Rowe Price New Horizons基金经理乔什·斯宾塞(Josh Spencer)表示：“它建立了强大的、类似伙伴关系的文化，并拥有长期稳定增长的记录。”他认为博思艾伦有能力实现9%至10%的收入年增长率和15%至16%的盈利年增长率，与其历史表现一致。由于担心军费开支更加克制，该股较100美元的峰值下跌了20%。斯宾塞将回调视为买入机会，该股的市盈率不到20倍。</blockquote></p><p> J.B. Hunt Transport Services(JBHT) is a leader in intermodal freight, which involves the fuel-efficient movement of trucks over rail lines. It has been one of the most successful trucking companies. Its stock has risen 30-fold over the past 20 years, to a recent $173. “It has an incredible franchise,” says Henry Ellenbogen, chief investment officer at Durable Capital Partners and a member of the&nbsp;Barron’s Roundtable.</p><p><blockquote>J.B.亨特运输服务公司(JBHT)是多式联运货运领域的领导者，该领域涉及卡车在铁路线上的省油运输。它是最成功的卡车运输公司之一。其股价在过去20年中上涨了30倍，最近达到173美元。“它拥有令人难以置信的特许经营权，”Durable Capital Partners首席投资官、《巴伦周刊》圆桌会议成员亨利·埃伦博根(Henry Ellenbogen)表示。</blockquote></p><p> J.B. Hunt’s relationship with the Burlington Northern Santa Fe railroad gives it a strong position in intermodal freight, he notes. J.B. Hunt also has a growing business taking over the trucking operations of smaller companies. And it is involved in digital freight brokerage—matching truckers with shipping customers.</p><p><blockquote>J.B.他指出，亨特与伯灵顿北圣达菲铁路公司的关系使其在多式联运货运领域拥有强大的地位。J.B.亨特的业务也在不断增长，接管了小公司的卡车运输业务。它还参与数字货运经纪业务——为卡车司机和航运客户牵线搭桥。</blockquote></p><p> Ellenbogen says the stock is reasonable at 22 times estimated 2022 profits, given a mid-teens annual growth outlook for earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Ellenbogen表示，考虑到盈利年增长率为十几岁左右，该股2022年预计利润的22倍是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> Marriott Vacations Worldwide(VAC) is one of the top companies in the timeshare industry. It has 700,000 owners, a resilient business model with significant revenue from fees, and more exposure than its peers to luxury properties in places including Hawaii and Orlando, Fla.</p><p><blockquote>万豪度假全球（VAC）是分时度假行业的顶级公司之一。它拥有700,000名业主，拥有富有弹性的商业模式，从费用中获得可观的收入，并且比同行更多地接触夏威夷和佛罗里达州奥兰多等地的豪华房产。</blockquote></p><p> “It has the best customer base, with the highest spending and an impeccable balance sheet,” says David Baron, a manager of the Baron Focused Growth fund. Marriott Vacations, whose shares recently were trading around $145, should reinstate its dividend later this year, he adds.</p><p><blockquote>Baron Focused Growth基金经理David Baron表示：“它拥有最好的客户群、最高的支出和无可挑剔的资产负债表。”他补充道，万豪度假公司的股价最近约为145美元，应该会在今年晚些时候恢复股息。</blockquote></p><p> The shares, Baron argues, are cheap at a 11% free-cash-flow yield, based on 2022 estimates. He says that the stock, little changed since 2018, could produce 20% annual returns for shareholders in the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>Baron认为，根据2022年的预测，该股的自由现金流收益率为11%，价格低廉。他表示，该股自2018年以来几乎没有变化，未来几年可能为股东带来20%的年回报率。</blockquote></p><p> SiteOne Landscape Supply(SITE) is the country’s top supplier of landscaping products, with ample opportunity to expand, given that it has just a 13% market share in a highly fragmented industry.</p><p><blockquote>SiteOne Landscape Supply(SITE)是该国最大的景观美化产品供应商，鉴于其在高度分散的行业中仅占13%的市场份额，因此有充足的扩张机会。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s growing organically and has lots of acquisition opportunities,” says Columbia’s Cole, who considers the company to be capable of 10% to 15% annual revenue growth.</p><p><blockquote>哥伦比亚大学的科尔表示：“它正在有机增长，并且有很多收购机会。”他认为该公司的年收入有能力增长10%至15%。</blockquote></p><p> The stock, around $197, has a rich valuation, trading for 43 times projected 2022 earnings of $4.54 a share.</p><p><blockquote>该股股价约为197美元，估值很高，交易价格是2022年预计每股收益4.54美元的43倍。</blockquote></p><p> Staar Surgical(STAA) has developed an implantable lens to correct myopia (nearsightedness). That addresses a potentially huge market, given the rising global incidence of that vision problem. The company expects the lens, which has been available in Europe and Asia for at least five years, to be on the U.S. market in the fourth quarter, pending Food and Drug Administration approval.</p><p><blockquote>Staar外科公司（STAA）开发了一种可植入晶状体来矫正近视（近视）。鉴于全球视力问题的发病率不断上升，这解决了一个潜在的巨大市场。该公司预计，这款镜片已在欧洲和亚洲上市至少五年，将于第四季度进入美国市场，等待美国食品和药物管理局的批准。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “It could do substantial volumes,’’ says Doug Brodie, a global manager at Baillie Gifford. “It’s early in a journey and is largely devoid of competition.”</p><p><blockquote>Baillie Gifford全球经理道格·布罗迪(Doug Brodie)表示：“它的销量可能会很大。它还处于起步阶段，基本上没有竞争。”</blockquote></p><p> Lenses for both eyes can be implanted in less than an hour, and they don’t involve the removal of the natural lenses. The wholesale cost in the U.S. could be around $1,000 per lens.</p><p><blockquote>双眼的晶状体可以在不到一个小时内植入，而且不需要移除天然晶状体。在美国，每个镜片的批发成本可能在1000美元左右。</blockquote></p><p> At a recent $138, Staar shares are richly valued at more than 20 times projected 2022 sales and 140 times estimated 2022 earnings. But the market opportunity is enormous: Some five billion people worldwide could have myopia by 2050.</p><p><blockquote>Staar股价最近为138美元，其估值超过2022年预计销售额的20倍，是2022年预计收益的140倍。但市场机会是巨大的：到2050年，全球约有50亿人可能患有近视。</blockquote></p><p> Stitch Fix(SFIX) has developed a subscription service for clothing, shoes, and other accessories and boasts over four million customers.</p><p><blockquote>Stitch Fix(SFIX)开发了服装、鞋子和其他配饰的订阅服务，拥有超过400万客户。</blockquote></p><p> “This could be the Nordstrom of the future,” says Mario Cibelli, chief investment officer at Marathon Partners Equity Management, a Stitch Fix holder. “This a potentially huge market and nobody is addressing it in the same way.” Using a staff of 6,000 personal stylists and lots of data, Stitch Fix seeks to identify subscriber tastes to generate high satisfaction and limit returns on packages sent at intervals and determined by subscribers.</p><p><blockquote>“这可能是未来的诺德斯特龙，”Stitch Fix持有者Marathon Partners Equity Management首席投资官马里奥·西贝利(Mario Cibelli)表示。“这是一个潜在的巨大市场，没有人以同样的方式解决这个问题。”Stitch Fix利用6000名个人造型师和大量数据，试图确定订户的品味，以产生高满意度，并限制每隔一段时间发送并由订户决定的包裹的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Its shares, around $44, are down 60% from their level earlier in the year, on investors’ worries about potential churn and the business’s ultimate profitability.</p><p><blockquote>由于投资者对潜在客户流失和业务最终盈利能力的担忧，其股价约为44美元，较今年早些时候的水平下跌了60%。</blockquote></p><p> Yet Cibelli sees revenue growth of 20%-plus annually, opportunities outside its current U.S. and U.K. markets, and a potentially very profitable business in two to three years.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Cibelli预计收入每年将增长20%以上，在当前美国和英国市场之外还有机会，并且在两到三年内业务可能会非常有利可图。</blockquote></p><p> Trex(TREX) is the top producer of a high-end wood alternative for decks that comes from 95% recycled material, making it an eco-friendly housing play. The shares, at $105, trade for 43 times projected 2022 earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Trex(TREX)是甲板高端木材替代品的顶级生产商，其95%来自回收材料，使其成为一种环保的住房。该股股价为105美元，是2022年预计市盈率的43倍。</blockquote></p><p> T. Rowe Price’s Spencer views Trex as worth the price, based on his view that it can generate sustainable annual revenue growth of 15% to 20%. Earnings are expected to climb by about 20% in 2022 and at a similar pace in the following years. “If you roll the clock forward three years, it doesn’t look as expensive,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>T.Rowe Price的Spencer认为Trex物有所值，因为他认为它可以产生15%至20%的可持续年收入增长。预计2022年盈利将增长约20%，并在接下来的几年中以类似的速度增长。“如果你把时间拨快三年，它看起来并没有那么贵，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Upwork(UPWK), an online marketplace for freelance workers, is favored by Baillie Gifford’s Brodie, who says it offers a play on the greater acceptance of freelancers by businesses.</p><p><blockquote>Upwork(UPWK)是一个面向自由职业者的在线市场，受到Baillie Gifford的Brodie的青睐，他表示，它可以让企业更好地接受自由职业者。</blockquote></p><p> The shares, recently around $44, aren’t cheap. Upwork is valued at $5.7 billion, or more than 10 times this year’s projected sales of nearly $500 million. It operates at a slight loss.</p><p><blockquote>该股最近约为44美元，并不便宜。Upwork的估值为57亿美元，是今年预计销售额近5亿美元的10倍以上。它的运营略有亏损。</blockquote></p><p> The investment case is about rapid sales growth leading to ample earnings. Sales are expected to rise by 30%-plus this year and 25% for 2022.</p><p><blockquote>投资案例是关于快速销售增长带来丰厚收益。预计今年销售额将增长30%以上，2022年将增长25%。</blockquote></p><p> “Freelancers are more accepted by small to midsize business, but they’ve been frowned on by the HR departments at large businesses,” Brodie says. Upwork aims to change that perception by vetting its freelancers and by offering thousands of skill sets. “Upwork could become a trusted partner for an increasing number of enterprise-grade partners,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>“自由职业者更容易被中小型企业接受，但大型企业的人力资源部门却不喜欢他们，”布罗迪说。Upwork旨在通过审查自由职业者和提供数千种技能来改变这种看法。“Upwork可以成为越来越多企业级合作伙伴值得信赖的合作伙伴，”他说。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-potential-compounder-growth-51628888840?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"JBHT":"JB Hunt运输服务","VAC":"万豪度假环球","STAA":"STAAR Surgical Company","AMRS":"阿米瑞斯","SITE":"SiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc.","SFIX":"Stitch Fix Inc.","TREX":"Trex Co Inc","BAH":"博思艾伦咨询公司","AMED":"阿米斯医疗","UPWK":"Upwork Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-potential-compounder-growth-51628888840?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127633167","content_text":"One of the most popular buzzwords in investing today is “compounders.” Growth-oriented investors looking for the next Amazon.com, Costco Wholesale, Nike, or Visa seek to identify companies capable of generating double-digit compound growth in revenue and earnings—preferably both—for years to come.\nThe idea is that stock prices should compound in line with revenue and profits, enabling investors to generate high returns over a holding period of five to 10 years. The ultimate goal is to find the elusive “10 bagger”—a stock that returns 10 times what you paid for it.\nWall Street analyst notes and client letters from investment pros are replete with compounder references. Many of the next generation of value managers, identified in a Barron’s cover story in May, are seeking such shares, rather than the traditional value fare of cheap stocks.\nTheir search has become more challenging, because buyers are paying lofty prices for high-growth stories. Really big winners are scarce. Only about 35 companies in each of a long series of 10-year periods have compounded their stock prices at 20% or more annually, resulting in at least a sixfold increase, according to Durable Capital Partners.\nMany investors are happy to stick with large, well-known compounders, such as Alphabet(ticker: GOOGL),Mastercard(MA),UnitedHealth Group(UNH), and Eli Lilly(LLY).\nBarron’s sought to identify smaller candidates. We talked to investment managers and came up with an eclectic list of 10 stocks, most with market values under $10 billion. Here are the selections, in alphabetical order:\nStrong and Steady Wins the RaceHere are 10 stocks that growth investors have identified as being able to generate consistently high growth in revenues or profits for many years.\n\n\n\nCompany / Ticker\nRecent Price\nYTD Change\n2021E P/E\n2021E Price/Sales\n2022E P/E\n2022E Price/Sales\nLT Growth Rate*\nMarket Value (bil)\nComment\n\n\n\n\nAmedysis / AMED\n$185.15\n-37%\n30.2\n2.7\n27.7\n2.4\n10.5%\n$6.3\nLeader in home health care\n\n\nAmyris / AMRS\n13.64\n121\nNM\n10.4\nNM\n9.7\nNA\n4.1\nLeading company in synthetic biology\n\n\nBooz Allen Hamilton Holding / BAH\n81.73\n-6\n19.4\n1.3\n17.7\n1.2\n8.6\n11.0\nDefense-department consultant\n\n\nJ.B. Hunt Transport Services / JBHT\n172.76\n26\n25.8\n1.5\n22.2\n1.4\n18.4\n18.2\nStrong in intermodal freight\n\n\nMarriott Vacations Worldwide / VAC\n147.15\n7\n40.9\n1.6\n15.7\n1.4\nNA\n6.3\nTop company in vacation timeshares\n\n\nSiteOne Landscape Supply / SITE\n197.10\n24\n45.7\n2.6\n43.5\n2.5\n19.3\n8.8\nBig supplier of landscaping supplies\n\n\nStaar Surgical / STAA\n138.19\n74\n192.3\n28.6\n140.8\n22.5\n30.0\n6.6\nMaker of implantable lens for myopia\n\n\nStitch Fix / SFIX\n44.38\n-24\nNM\n1.9\n1890.3\n1.7\n30.0\n4.8\nData-driven subscription clothing firm\n\n\nTrex / TREX\n105.94\n27\n51.9\n10.5\n43.6\n9.3\n18.8\n12.2\nTop maker of synthetic wood decking\n\n\nUpwork / UPWK\n44.31\n28\nNM\n11.4\n556.8\n9.2\nNA\n5.7\nOnline clearinghouse for free-lancers\n\n\n\nE=Estimate. BAH estimates are for fiscal years ending March 2022 and March 23. SFIX estimates are for fiscal years ending July 2022 and July 2023. NM=Not Meaningful. NA=Not Available. *The annual EPS growth the company can sustain over the next 3-5 years.\nSource: FactSet\nAmedisys(AMED), a provider of home healthcare and hospice services, has a national footprint in a still-fragmented business.\n“There is going to be massive consolidation of the industry” predicts Dan Cole, a manager of the Columbia Small-Cap Growth fund. “Healthcare is moving to the home.”\nAmedisys stock is up more than tenfold in the past decade. But the shares, around $185, are off nearly 30% after the company recently cut 2021 financial guidance, citing Covid-related staffing and cost issues, mostly in acquired hospice operations. The 2021 earnings estimate is now $6.13 a share, down from nearly $7. The stock trades for 30 times projected 2021 profits. Cole says that the company remains capable of generating 10% annual gains in earnings per share.\nAmyris(AMRS) is a leader in synthetic biology. It fans say its opportunity is to supplant, in an eco-friendly way, a range of products now made from petrochemicals, animals, and plants.\nUsing genetically re-engineered yeast and sugar cane, Amyris produces such things as squalane, a high-end moisturizer formerly made from shark livers; vanillin, the flavoring for vanilla; and a no-calorie sweetener normally derived from plants. The stock trades around $13.\nBarron’s wrote favorably on the company in July. Amyris sees sales reaching $2 billion by 2025, up from an estimated $400 million this year, driven by its consumer brands.\n“The world needs clean chemistry, and Amyris is the point on the spear to create it,” says Randy Baron, a portfolio manager at Pinnacle Associates, which owns Amyris shares. He thinks they could hit $75 by the end of 2022.\nBooz Allen Hamilton Holding(BAH) is an important consultant to the Defense Department and other agencies. The U.S. government accounted for 97% of its revenue in its latest fiscal year. Booz Allen has built robust ties to the government over the years by providing an array of services, like cybersecurity. Its stock trades around $81, for a 1.8% yield.\n“It has built a strong, partnership-like culture and has a long record of steady growth,” says Josh Spencer, manager of the T. Rowe Price New Horizons fund. He sees Booz Allen as capable of generating 9% to 10% annual growth in revenue and yearly gains of 15% to 16% in earnings, in line with its historical performance. The stock is off 20% from its peak of $100, amid concerns about more restrained military spending. Spencer sees the pullback as a buying opportunity, with the stock valued at less than 20 times earnings.\nJ.B. Hunt Transport Services(JBHT) is a leader in intermodal freight, which involves the fuel-efficient movement of trucks over rail lines. It has been one of the most successful trucking companies. Its stock has risen 30-fold over the past 20 years, to a recent $173. “It has an incredible franchise,” says Henry Ellenbogen, chief investment officer at Durable Capital Partners and a member of the Barron’s Roundtable.\nJ.B. Hunt’s relationship with the Burlington Northern Santa Fe railroad gives it a strong position in intermodal freight, he notes. J.B. Hunt also has a growing business taking over the trucking operations of smaller companies. And it is involved in digital freight brokerage—matching truckers with shipping customers.\nEllenbogen says the stock is reasonable at 22 times estimated 2022 profits, given a mid-teens annual growth outlook for earnings.\nMarriott Vacations Worldwide(VAC) is one of the top companies in the timeshare industry. It has 700,000 owners, a resilient business model with significant revenue from fees, and more exposure than its peers to luxury properties in places including Hawaii and Orlando, Fla.\n“It has the best customer base, with the highest spending and an impeccable balance sheet,” says David Baron, a manager of the Baron Focused Growth fund. Marriott Vacations, whose shares recently were trading around $145, should reinstate its dividend later this year, he adds.\nThe shares, Baron argues, are cheap at a 11% free-cash-flow yield, based on 2022 estimates. He says that the stock, little changed since 2018, could produce 20% annual returns for shareholders in the coming years.\nSiteOne Landscape Supply(SITE) is the country’s top supplier of landscaping products, with ample opportunity to expand, given that it has just a 13% market share in a highly fragmented industry.\n\n“It’s growing organically and has lots of acquisition opportunities,” says Columbia’s Cole, who considers the company to be capable of 10% to 15% annual revenue growth.\nThe stock, around $197, has a rich valuation, trading for 43 times projected 2022 earnings of $4.54 a share.\nStaar Surgical(STAA) has developed an implantable lens to correct myopia (nearsightedness). That addresses a potentially huge market, given the rising global incidence of that vision problem. The company expects the lens, which has been available in Europe and Asia for at least five years, to be on the U.S. market in the fourth quarter, pending Food and Drug Administration approval.\n“It could do substantial volumes,’’ says Doug Brodie, a global manager at Baillie Gifford. “It’s early in a journey and is largely devoid of competition.”\nLenses for both eyes can be implanted in less than an hour, and they don’t involve the removal of the natural lenses. The wholesale cost in the U.S. could be around $1,000 per lens.\nAt a recent $138, Staar shares are richly valued at more than 20 times projected 2022 sales and 140 times estimated 2022 earnings. But the market opportunity is enormous: Some five billion people worldwide could have myopia by 2050.\nStitch Fix(SFIX) has developed a subscription service for clothing, shoes, and other accessories and boasts over four million customers.\n“This could be the Nordstrom of the future,” says Mario Cibelli, chief investment officer at Marathon Partners Equity Management, a Stitch Fix holder. “This a potentially huge market and nobody is addressing it in the same way.” Using a staff of 6,000 personal stylists and lots of data, Stitch Fix seeks to identify subscriber tastes to generate high satisfaction and limit returns on packages sent at intervals and determined by subscribers.\nIts shares, around $44, are down 60% from their level earlier in the year, on investors’ worries about potential churn and the business’s ultimate profitability.\nYet Cibelli sees revenue growth of 20%-plus annually, opportunities outside its current U.S. and U.K. markets, and a potentially very profitable business in two to three years.\nTrex(TREX) is the top producer of a high-end wood alternative for decks that comes from 95% recycled material, making it an eco-friendly housing play. The shares, at $105, trade for 43 times projected 2022 earnings.\nT. Rowe Price’s Spencer views Trex as worth the price, based on his view that it can generate sustainable annual revenue growth of 15% to 20%. Earnings are expected to climb by about 20% in 2022 and at a similar pace in the following years. “If you roll the clock forward three years, it doesn’t look as expensive,” he says.\nUpwork(UPWK), an online marketplace for freelance workers, is favored by Baillie Gifford’s Brodie, who says it offers a play on the greater acceptance of freelancers by businesses.\nThe shares, recently around $44, aren’t cheap. Upwork is valued at $5.7 billion, or more than 10 times this year’s projected sales of nearly $500 million. It operates at a slight loss.\nThe investment case is about rapid sales growth leading to ample earnings. Sales are expected to rise by 30%-plus this year and 25% for 2022.\n“Freelancers are more accepted by small to midsize business, but they’ve been frowned on by the HR departments at large businesses,” Brodie says. Upwork aims to change that perception by vetting its freelancers and by offering thousands of skill sets. “Upwork could become a trusted partner for an increasing number of enterprise-grade partners,” he says.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TREX":0.9,"BAH":0.9,"VAC":0.9,"SFIX":0.9,"STAA":0.9,"AMED":0.9,"AMRS":0.9,"JBHT":0.9,"SITE":0.9,"UPWK":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":707,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":897008755,"gmtCreate":1628861707877,"gmtModify":1631891625400,"author":{"id":"3583806200035507","authorId":"3583806200035507","name":"HuiBing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583806200035507","idStr":"3583806200035507"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/897008755","repostId":"1121308321","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":550,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":892182018,"gmtCreate":1628643936034,"gmtModify":1631891625412,"author":{"id":"3583806200035507","authorId":"3583806200035507","name":"HuiBing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583806200035507","idStr":"3583806200035507"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/892182018","repostId":"1113659361","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":561,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":890784357,"gmtCreate":1628134590679,"gmtModify":1631891625457,"author":{"id":"3583806200035507","authorId":"3583806200035507","name":"HuiBing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583806200035507","idStr":"3583806200035507"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment","listText":"Like and comment","text":"Like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/890784357","repostId":"1187380753","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187380753","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628133104,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1187380753?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-05 11:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"You Can Short Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation Fund. But Is It a Good Idea?<blockquote>你可以做空凯西·伍德的方舟创新基金。但这是个好主意吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187380753","media":"Barrons","summary":"For those bearish on ARK Invest’s innovation-driven stock picks, there might soon be a new ETF that ","content":"<p>For those bearish on ARK Invest’s innovation-driven stock picks, there might soon be a new ETF that allows investors to bet against them.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些看跌ARK Invest创新驱动型股票的人来说，可能很快就会有一只新的ETF允许投资者做空它们。</blockquote></p><p> Tuttle Capital Management, a small fund company with 10 ETFs and $228 million under management, has filed to launch the Short ARKK ETF under the ticker SARK. The fund would seek to track the inverse performance of the $23 billion ARK Innovation ETF (ticker: ARKK) through swaps contracts, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.</p><p><blockquote>Tuttle Capital Management是一家小型基金公司，管理着10只ETF和2.28亿美元，已申请推出空头ARKK ETF，股票代码为SARK。根据向美国证券交易委员会提交的文件，该基金将寻求通过掉期合约跟踪价值230亿美元的ARK Innovation ETF（股票代码：ARKK）的反向表现。</blockquote></p><p> Inverse ETFs have been around a long time, but most bet against a broad-market index or particular sector, rather than an actively managed portfolio like ARK’s. “As far as I’m aware, it’s unprecedented,” said Ben Johnson, director of global exchange-traded fund research for Morningstar.</p><p><blockquote>反向ETF已经存在很长时间了，但大多数都做空大盘指数或特定行业，而不是像ARK这样的主动管理投资组合。“据我所知，这是前所未有的，”晨星公司全球交易所交易基金研究总监本·约翰逊表示。</blockquote></p><p> It’s not the first time that Wall Street broke norms in order to tap on investors’ surging interest—whether bullish or bearish—in ARK and its stock-picking CEO, Cathie Wood.</p><p><blockquote>这并不是华尔街第一次打破规范，以利用投资者对ARK及其选股首席执行官凯西·伍德(Cathie Wood)日益高涨的兴趣（无论是看涨还是看跌）。</blockquote></p><p> Earlier this year, big investment banks started issuing&nbsp;structured notes tied to the firm’s actively managed ETFs. These debt securities involve complicated derivatives trades that promise some participation in the underlying assets’ gains but a certain level of downside protection<b>.</b>They are traditionally tied to single stocks or indexes like the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，大型投资银行开始发行与该公司主动管理型ETF挂钩的结构性票据。这些债务证券涉及复杂的衍生品交易，承诺在一定程度上参与基础资产的收益，但提供一定程度的下行保护<b>.</b>传统上，它们与单一股票或标准普尔500指数等指数挂钩。</blockquote></p><p> The filing for the Short ARKK ETF came as ARK funds are struggling to repeat their spectacular performance of last year. The ARK Innovation ETF, for example, gained roughly 150% in 2020 as one of the top-performing ETFs of the year. Year to date, it’s down 4.4%,after plunging 24% from the February peak.</p><p><blockquote>申请做空ARKK ETF之际，ARK基金正在努力重复去年的出色表现。例如，ARK Innovation ETF在2020年上涨了约150%，成为当年表现最好的ETF之一。今年迄今为止，该指数已下跌4.4%，较2月份的峰值暴跌24%。</blockquote></p><p> Some investors think Wood’s heavy bets on&nbsp;highflying tech stockslike&nbsp;Tesla(TSLA) and&nbsp;Square(SQ) have made the fund’s portfolio&nbsp;too expensive and risky, which has weighed on its performance this year as investors favored the cheaper cyclical stocks that could benefit from the postpandemic recovery.</p><p><blockquote>一些投资者认为，伍德对特斯拉(TSLA)和Square(SQ)等飞速发展的科技股的大举押注使得该基金的投资组合过于昂贵且风险太大，这影响了其今年的业绩，因为投资者青睐可能受益于疫情后复苏的廉价周期性股票。</blockquote></p><p> ARK did not respond to a request for comment.</p><p><blockquote>方舟没有回应置评请求。</blockquote></p><p> Even for investors skeptical about Wood’s penchant for innovation stocks, though, buying an anti-ARK ETF might not be the smartest thing to do. Anyone that doesn’t like the ARK funds can simply not buy them. Shorting them could bring more risks than the potential rewards.</p><p><blockquote>不过，即使对于对伍德对创新股的偏好持怀疑态度的投资者来说，购买反方舟ETF可能也不是最明智的做法。任何不喜欢方舟基金的人都不能购买。做空它们可能会带来比潜在回报更多的风险。</blockquote></p><p> “The odds you’re going to profit from those bearish beliefs by short selling these funds are pretty small,” said Morningstar’s Johnson, “The upside is limited, the best you can get is a 100% return on your investment, and that’s assuming ARK will run its portfolios to the ground, which isn’t going to happen. On the other hand, the worst that could happen is that if ARK has another year like they did last year. You’ll get absolutely torched.”</p><p><blockquote>晨星公司的约翰逊表示：“你通过卖空这些基金从这些看跌信念中获利的可能性非常小，上涨空间有限，你能获得的最好结果是100%的投资回报，这是假设ARK将把其投资组合搞得一团糟，这是不会发生的。另一方面，可能发生的最糟糕的情况是，如果ARK又像去年那样度过一年。”你绝对会被烧伤的。”</blockquote></p><p> Still, ARK doubters already&nbsp;are borrowing shares and selling the short&nbsp;themselves. According to data from FactSet, short interest in the ARK Innovation ETF has increased to nearly 10% of its total floating shares, up from 2% at the beginning of the year.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，方舟的怀疑者已经在借入股票并卖空自己。FactSet的数据显示，ARK Innovation ETF的空头兴趣已增至其总流通股的近10%，高于年初的2%。</blockquote></p><p> Many noninstitutional investors don’t have the capability or channel to short stocks or ETFs themselves, and Tuttle Capital Management sees an opportunity here. “Clearly there is an increased appetite to short unprofitable tech,” Matt Tuttle, the firm’s chief executive officer, told Barron’s in an email, “The goal there was to create tools for investors to express a view.”</p><p><blockquote>许多非机构投资者本身没有能力或渠道做空股票或ETF，塔特尔资本管理公司在这里看到了机会。该公司首席执行官马特·塔特尔(Matt Tuttle)在一封电子邮件中告诉《巴伦周刊》：“显然，做空无利可图的科技公司的兴趣有所增加，其目标是为投资者创造表达观点的工具。”</blockquote></p><p> The newly filed Short ARKK ETF plans to charge a 0.75% operating expense, mirroring the expense ratio of the ARK Innovation ETF. Compared to a simple inverse fund tracking a stock index or commodity, the fund might have a harder time returning the exact inverse of ARK Innovation’s performance, said Johnson<b>:</b>“You are betting against a moving target, and in theory, there’s going to be some degree of slippage when you try to do that.”</p><p><blockquote>新提交的空头ARKK ETF计划收取0.75%的运营费用，反映了ARK Innovation ETF的费用比率。约翰逊表示，与跟踪股票指数或大宗商品的简单反向基金相比，该基金可能更难实现与ARK Innovation业绩完全相反的回报<b>：</b>“你押注的是一个移动的目标，从理论上讲，当你尝试这样做时，会出现一定程度的下滑。”</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, the Short ARKK ETF is still in filing. There is a chance that the SEC might not approve it, given that the fund is the first of its kind.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，做空ARKK ETF仍在备案中。鉴于该基金是同类基金中的第一只，美国证券交易委员会可能不会批准它。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>You Can Short Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation Fund. But Is It a Good Idea?<blockquote>你可以做空凯西·伍德的方舟创新基金。但这是个好主意吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nYou Can Short Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation Fund. But Is It a Good Idea?<blockquote>你可以做空凯西·伍德的方舟创新基金。但这是个好主意吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-05 11:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>For those bearish on ARK Invest’s innovation-driven stock picks, there might soon be a new ETF that allows investors to bet against them.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些看跌ARK Invest创新驱动型股票的人来说，可能很快就会有一只新的ETF允许投资者做空它们。</blockquote></p><p> Tuttle Capital Management, a small fund company with 10 ETFs and $228 million under management, has filed to launch the Short ARKK ETF under the ticker SARK. The fund would seek to track the inverse performance of the $23 billion ARK Innovation ETF (ticker: ARKK) through swaps contracts, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.</p><p><blockquote>Tuttle Capital Management是一家小型基金公司，管理着10只ETF和2.28亿美元，已申请推出空头ARKK ETF，股票代码为SARK。根据向美国证券交易委员会提交的文件，该基金将寻求通过掉期合约跟踪价值230亿美元的ARK Innovation ETF（股票代码：ARKK）的反向表现。</blockquote></p><p> Inverse ETFs have been around a long time, but most bet against a broad-market index or particular sector, rather than an actively managed portfolio like ARK’s. “As far as I’m aware, it’s unprecedented,” said Ben Johnson, director of global exchange-traded fund research for Morningstar.</p><p><blockquote>反向ETF已经存在很长时间了，但大多数都做空大盘指数或特定行业，而不是像ARK这样的主动管理投资组合。“据我所知，这是前所未有的，”晨星公司全球交易所交易基金研究总监本·约翰逊表示。</blockquote></p><p> It’s not the first time that Wall Street broke norms in order to tap on investors’ surging interest—whether bullish or bearish—in ARK and its stock-picking CEO, Cathie Wood.</p><p><blockquote>这并不是华尔街第一次打破规范，以利用投资者对ARK及其选股首席执行官凯西·伍德(Cathie Wood)日益高涨的兴趣（无论是看涨还是看跌）。</blockquote></p><p> Earlier this year, big investment banks started issuing&nbsp;structured notes tied to the firm’s actively managed ETFs. These debt securities involve complicated derivatives trades that promise some participation in the underlying assets’ gains but a certain level of downside protection<b>.</b>They are traditionally tied to single stocks or indexes like the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，大型投资银行开始发行与该公司主动管理型ETF挂钩的结构性票据。这些债务证券涉及复杂的衍生品交易，承诺在一定程度上参与基础资产的收益，但提供一定程度的下行保护<b>.</b>传统上，它们与单一股票或标准普尔500指数等指数挂钩。</blockquote></p><p> The filing for the Short ARKK ETF came as ARK funds are struggling to repeat their spectacular performance of last year. The ARK Innovation ETF, for example, gained roughly 150% in 2020 as one of the top-performing ETFs of the year. Year to date, it’s down 4.4%,after plunging 24% from the February peak.</p><p><blockquote>申请做空ARKK ETF之际，ARK基金正在努力重复去年的出色表现。例如，ARK Innovation ETF在2020年上涨了约150%，成为当年表现最好的ETF之一。今年迄今为止，该指数已下跌4.4%，较2月份的峰值暴跌24%。</blockquote></p><p> Some investors think Wood’s heavy bets on&nbsp;highflying tech stockslike&nbsp;Tesla(TSLA) and&nbsp;Square(SQ) have made the fund’s portfolio&nbsp;too expensive and risky, which has weighed on its performance this year as investors favored the cheaper cyclical stocks that could benefit from the postpandemic recovery.</p><p><blockquote>一些投资者认为，伍德对特斯拉(TSLA)和Square(SQ)等飞速发展的科技股的大举押注使得该基金的投资组合过于昂贵且风险太大，这影响了其今年的业绩，因为投资者青睐可能受益于疫情后复苏的廉价周期性股票。</blockquote></p><p> ARK did not respond to a request for comment.</p><p><blockquote>方舟没有回应置评请求。</blockquote></p><p> Even for investors skeptical about Wood’s penchant for innovation stocks, though, buying an anti-ARK ETF might not be the smartest thing to do. Anyone that doesn’t like the ARK funds can simply not buy them. Shorting them could bring more risks than the potential rewards.</p><p><blockquote>不过，即使对于对伍德对创新股的偏好持怀疑态度的投资者来说，购买反方舟ETF可能也不是最明智的做法。任何不喜欢方舟基金的人都不能购买。做空它们可能会带来比潜在回报更多的风险。</blockquote></p><p> “The odds you’re going to profit from those bearish beliefs by short selling these funds are pretty small,” said Morningstar’s Johnson, “The upside is limited, the best you can get is a 100% return on your investment, and that’s assuming ARK will run its portfolios to the ground, which isn’t going to happen. On the other hand, the worst that could happen is that if ARK has another year like they did last year. You’ll get absolutely torched.”</p><p><blockquote>晨星公司的约翰逊表示：“你通过卖空这些基金从这些看跌信念中获利的可能性非常小，上涨空间有限，你能获得的最好结果是100%的投资回报，这是假设ARK将把其投资组合搞得一团糟，这是不会发生的。另一方面，可能发生的最糟糕的情况是，如果ARK又像去年那样度过一年。”你绝对会被烧伤的。”</blockquote></p><p> Still, ARK doubters already&nbsp;are borrowing shares and selling the short&nbsp;themselves. According to data from FactSet, short interest in the ARK Innovation ETF has increased to nearly 10% of its total floating shares, up from 2% at the beginning of the year.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，方舟的怀疑者已经在借入股票并卖空自己。FactSet的数据显示，ARK Innovation ETF的空头兴趣已增至其总流通股的近10%，高于年初的2%。</blockquote></p><p> Many noninstitutional investors don’t have the capability or channel to short stocks or ETFs themselves, and Tuttle Capital Management sees an opportunity here. “Clearly there is an increased appetite to short unprofitable tech,” Matt Tuttle, the firm’s chief executive officer, told Barron’s in an email, “The goal there was to create tools for investors to express a view.”</p><p><blockquote>许多非机构投资者本身没有能力或渠道做空股票或ETF，塔特尔资本管理公司在这里看到了机会。该公司首席执行官马特·塔特尔(Matt Tuttle)在一封电子邮件中告诉《巴伦周刊》：“显然，做空无利可图的科技公司的兴趣有所增加，其目标是为投资者创造表达观点的工具。”</blockquote></p><p> The newly filed Short ARKK ETF plans to charge a 0.75% operating expense, mirroring the expense ratio of the ARK Innovation ETF. Compared to a simple inverse fund tracking a stock index or commodity, the fund might have a harder time returning the exact inverse of ARK Innovation’s performance, said Johnson<b>:</b>“You are betting against a moving target, and in theory, there’s going to be some degree of slippage when you try to do that.”</p><p><blockquote>新提交的空头ARKK ETF计划收取0.75%的运营费用，反映了ARK Innovation ETF的费用比率。约翰逊表示，与跟踪股票指数或大宗商品的简单反向基金相比，该基金可能更难实现与ARK Innovation业绩完全相反的回报<b>：</b>“你押注的是一个移动的目标，从理论上讲，当你尝试这样做时，会出现一定程度的下滑。”</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, the Short ARKK ETF is still in filing. There is a chance that the SEC might not approve it, given that the fund is the first of its kind.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，做空ARKK ETF仍在备案中。鉴于该基金是同类基金中的第一只，美国证券交易委员会可能不会批准它。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/short-ark-innovation-fund-etf-51628035888?mod=hp_DAY_7\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/short-ark-innovation-fund-etf-51628035888?mod=hp_DAY_7","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187380753","content_text":"For those bearish on ARK Invest’s innovation-driven stock picks, there might soon be a new ETF that allows investors to bet against them.\nTuttle Capital Management, a small fund company with 10 ETFs and $228 million under management, has filed to launch the Short ARKK ETF under the ticker SARK. The fund would seek to track the inverse performance of the $23 billion ARK Innovation ETF (ticker: ARKK) through swaps contracts, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.\nInverse ETFs have been around a long time, but most bet against a broad-market index or particular sector, rather than an actively managed portfolio like ARK’s. “As far as I’m aware, it’s unprecedented,” said Ben Johnson, director of global exchange-traded fund research for Morningstar.\nIt’s not the first time that Wall Street broke norms in order to tap on investors’ surging interest—whether bullish or bearish—in ARK and its stock-picking CEO, Cathie Wood.\nEarlier this year, big investment banks started issuing structured notes tied to the firm’s actively managed ETFs. These debt securities involve complicated derivatives trades that promise some participation in the underlying assets’ gains but a certain level of downside protection.They are traditionally tied to single stocks or indexes like the S&P 500.\nThe filing for the Short ARKK ETF came as ARK funds are struggling to repeat their spectacular performance of last year. The ARK Innovation ETF, for example, gained roughly 150% in 2020 as one of the top-performing ETFs of the year. Year to date, it’s down 4.4%,after plunging 24% from the February peak.\nSome investors think Wood’s heavy bets on highflying tech stockslike Tesla(TSLA) and Square(SQ) have made the fund’s portfolio too expensive and risky, which has weighed on its performance this year as investors favored the cheaper cyclical stocks that could benefit from the postpandemic recovery.\nARK did not respond to a request for comment.\nEven for investors skeptical about Wood’s penchant for innovation stocks, though, buying an anti-ARK ETF might not be the smartest thing to do. Anyone that doesn’t like the ARK funds can simply not buy them. Shorting them could bring more risks than the potential rewards.\n“The odds you’re going to profit from those bearish beliefs by short selling these funds are pretty small,” said Morningstar’s Johnson, “The upside is limited, the best you can get is a 100% return on your investment, and that’s assuming ARK will run its portfolios to the ground, which isn’t going to happen. On the other hand, the worst that could happen is that if ARK has another year like they did last year. You’ll get absolutely torched.”\nStill, ARK doubters already are borrowing shares and selling the short themselves. According to data from FactSet, short interest in the ARK Innovation ETF has increased to nearly 10% of its total floating shares, up from 2% at the beginning of the year.\nMany noninstitutional investors don’t have the capability or channel to short stocks or ETFs themselves, and Tuttle Capital Management sees an opportunity here. “Clearly there is an increased appetite to short unprofitable tech,” Matt Tuttle, the firm’s chief executive officer, told Barron’s in an email, “The goal there was to create tools for investors to express a view.”\nThe newly filed Short ARKK ETF plans to charge a 0.75% operating expense, mirroring the expense ratio of the ARK Innovation ETF. Compared to a simple inverse fund tracking a stock index or commodity, the fund might have a harder time returning the exact inverse of ARK Innovation’s performance, said Johnson:“You are betting against a moving target, and in theory, there’s going to be some degree of slippage when you try to do that.”\nTo be sure, the Short ARKK ETF is still in filing. There is a chance that the SEC might not approve it, given that the fund is the first of its kind.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ARKK":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"SQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":451,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":806934374,"gmtCreate":1627623415498,"gmtModify":1633757659265,"author":{"id":"3583806200035507","authorId":"3583806200035507","name":"HuiBing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583806200035507","idStr":"3583806200035507"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/806934374","repostId":"1183715018","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":465,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127504124,"gmtCreate":1624854515068,"gmtModify":1633947907366,"author":{"id":"3583806200035507","authorId":"3583806200035507","name":"HuiBing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583806200035507","idStr":"3583806200035507"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127504124","repostId":"2146200677","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":627,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":130366832,"gmtCreate":1621513815626,"gmtModify":1634188537082,"author":{"id":"3583806200035507","authorId":"3583806200035507","name":"HuiBing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583806200035507","idStr":"3583806200035507"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment pls!","listText":"Like and comment pls!","text":"Like and comment pls!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/130366832","repostId":"2136924532","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":578,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":880442106,"gmtCreate":1631076191505,"gmtModify":1631891625331,"author":{"id":"3583806200035507","authorId":"3583806200035507","name":"HuiBing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583806200035507","authorIdStr":"3583806200035507"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880442106","repostId":"1143120804","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143120804","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631072080,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1143120804?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-08 11:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143120804","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth ra","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.</li>  <li>While growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.</li>  <li>AWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.</li>  <li>We revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2ca0bbeb0cb7be66a257f4e9d5f5fa1\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>公司2020年收入增长超出我们预期，我们将其增长率预测修正为15.8%。</li><li>尽管在经历了强劲活动的辉煌一年后，增长正在放缓，但该公司仍有望从电子商务转变中受益，预计零售渗透率为22%。</li><li>在可预见的未来，AWS预计仍将是第一大市场领导者。</li><li>我们使用DCF分析修改了估值，从3,358.73美元获得了4,303.18美元的新目标价。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>4kodiak/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since our previous&nbsp;coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.</p><p><blockquote>自我们上次报道以来，亚马逊公司(AMZN)的股价已上涨26%，超出了我们24.5%的收入增长预期，并在2020年底上涨了37.6%，其在线零售业务增长了40%，达到近2000亿美元，第三方服务800亿美元。在本次分析中，我们重新审视了其主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方服务和AWS。</blockquote></p><p> Despite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3&nbsp;guidance&nbsp;of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.</p><p><blockquote>尽管第二季度网上商店销售额增长疲软13%，第三季度同比指引中点疲软13%，表明增长正常化的迹象，但电子商务市场的长期增长前景仍然具有吸引力。亚马逊已确立市场地位的在线零售。随着越来越多的消费者将购买行为转移到网上，预计到2023年，电子商务的份额将从2020年的18%达到22%。我们相信，亚马逊稳固的市场地位、作为忠实客户的庞大Prime会员基础以及坚实的物流和运输网络为其提供了优势，正如其与第三方卖家的电子商务市场的崛起所证明的那样。此外，在可预见的未来，其云业务预计仍将是云基础设施市场的市场领导者，持续致力于增长并以不断增长的数据量为基础。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a78658eabc40ec60c6713019d6f800c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Amazon</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：亚马逊</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>E-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>尽管增长正常化，电子商务销售前景仍然有吸引力</b></blockquote></p><p> Amazon's online store&nbsp;sales&nbsp;have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊的在线商店销售额在2020年从上一年的14.8%飙升了40%，因为它受益于对实体零售商的长期封锁和限制，加速了向电子商务的采用。然而，尽管2021年第二季度在线商店增长同比放缓13%，而第一季度为41%，但我们相信该公司将继续受益于电子商务采用率不断上升的长期推动力。</blockquote></p><p> According to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to&nbsp;reach&nbsp;22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.</p><p><blockquote>根据eMarketer的数据，随着消费者继续转向在线购买，电子商务销售额的份额预计将达到全球零售额的22%。随着全球疫苗接种运动和商业限制的放松，全球零售额预计将反弹7.2%。因此，2021年电子商务销售额预测为10.2%，较2019年的27.6%实现正常化增长，渗透率从去年的14%飙升至18%。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Global E-Commerce Market ($ bln)</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>全球电子商务市场（十亿美元）</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2016</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2016</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2017</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2017</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2018</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2018</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2019</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2019</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2020</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2020</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2021F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2021F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2022F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2022F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2023F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2023F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Total Global Retail Sales ('a')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>全球零售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21,453</p><p><blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22,904</p><p><blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>23,560</p><p><blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>24,780</p><p><blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>23,778</p><p><blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25,490</p><p><blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27,172</p><p><blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>28,395</p><p><blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-4.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.20%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.60%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.50%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1,845</p><p><blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,382</p><p><blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,982</p><p><blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>3,354</p><p><blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,280</p><p><blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,716</p><p><blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5,434</p><p><blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6,247</p><p><blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>29.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>12.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Penetration Rate ('c')</b></p><p><blockquote><tr><td><b>渗透率（“c”）</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10%</p><p><blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>12%</p><p><blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14%</p><p><blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>18%</p><p><blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19%</p><p><blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20%</p><p><blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22%</p><p><blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>* B = C x A</i></p><p><blockquote><i>*B=C x A</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：Statista、eMarketer、Khaveen Investments</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Amazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US&nbsp;population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊既定的市场定位是其利用市场增长的额外竞争优势。更具体地说，很难在价格、选择和便利性等关键标准上赢得公司的支持。显然，该公司的Prime会员在2020年继续增长15%，达到1.425亿会员，约占美国人口的43%。这表明忠实客户对该公司具有强大的吸引力，为其提供了庞大的安装基础。通过Prime会员，也推动消费者购买更多，以获得各种福利。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125c2baa1b52e2787075210f05321e20\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"492\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Backlinko</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Backlinko</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently&nbsp;attract&nbsp;sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.</p><p><blockquote>除了Prime会员之外，该公司还能够持续吸引卖家到其平台，自2017年以来新增卖家330万人，即每天3,718人。目前，它在美国、英国、德国、日本等地拥有970万卖家。因此，该公司已确立了自己作为市场主导者的地位，并在电子商务销售方面远远领先于第二接近的竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6272ba7ee8cf6f5aab477b8425f34923\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Marketing Charts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：营销图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Its market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer &amp; consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel &amp; accessories, books music &amp; video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.</p><p><blockquote>如下表所示，其在不同产品类别和市场中的市场领导地位相当广泛。例如，其消费品和消费电子产品销售额是最大的产品类别，占美国电子商务总销售额的50.2%，占零售总额的26.7%。其次是服装和配饰、书籍、音乐和视频以及家具和家居用品，分别占电子商务销售额的32%、83.2%和34.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6765530fd408a02c75515a712af4087\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"725\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: eMarketer</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：eMarketer</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Among the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having&nbsp;purchased&nbsp;electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software&nbsp;updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker&nbsp;units&nbsp;and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average&nbsp;price&nbsp;of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.</p><p><blockquote>在产品类别中，电子产品类别最受美国购物者欢迎，44%的美国购物者在亚马逊上购买过电子产品。它还销售自己的电子设备，包括Echo智能扬声器，占美国市场份额的70%，其次是谷歌(GOOG)和苹果(AAPL)，并继续通过新一代产品和软件更新来开发该产品。2020年，该公司智能音箱出货量超过3800万台，占全球出货量市场份额的28.3%。根据Echo产品系列103美元的平均价格，我们估计其智能扬声器销售收入约为39.4亿美元，约占其在线商店收入的2%。然而，它也面临着日益激烈的竞争，尤其是来自主导中国市场的百度（BIDU）和小米（OTCPK：XIACF）等中国制造商的竞争。</blockquote></p><p> All in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln&nbsp;products&nbsp;excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，该公司拥有1200万种产品，不包括书籍、媒体、葡萄酒和服务，随着卖家基础的不断增长，我们预计这一产品广度将继续扩大，并通过产品多样性为客户提供独特的价值主张。</blockquote></p><p> Thus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们预计其拥有稳固的市场主导地位，拥有成熟的客户群和忠诚的Prime会员生态系统，以及在各种关键产品类别中拥有广泛的市场领导地位和广泛的产品广度的庞大卖家基础，以支持其长期增长。我们预测其在线商店增长是基于我们对其市场份额的预期（基于全球电子商务销售额的5年平均值）为4.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Amazon Online Stores ($ bln)</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>亚马逊在线商店（十亿美元）</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2016</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2016</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2017</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2017</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2018</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2018</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2019</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2019</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2020</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2020</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2021F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2021F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2022F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2022F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2023F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2023F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Total Retail Sales ('a')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>零售销售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21,453</p><p><blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22,904</p><p><blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>23,560</p><p><blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>24,780</p><p><blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>23,778</p><p><blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25,490</p><p><blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27,172</p><p><blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>28,395</p><p><blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-4.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.20%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.60%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.50%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1,845</p><p><blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,382</p><p><blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,982</p><p><blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>3,354</p><p><blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,280</p><p><blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,716</p><p><blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5,434</p><p><blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6,247</p><p><blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>29.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>12.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Penetration Rate ('c')</b></p><p><blockquote><tr><td><b>渗透率（“c”）</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></p><p></p><p></td>    <td>10%</p><p><blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>12%</p><p><blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14%</p><p><blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>18%</p><p><blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19%</p><p><blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20%</p><p><blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22%</p><p><blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>16.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>16.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>20.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>17.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>17.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>11.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>11.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>32.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>32.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>2.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>8.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>10.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店收入('d')</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>91.43</p><p><blockquote><td>91.43</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>108.35</p><p><blockquote><td>108.35</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>122.99</p><p><blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>141.25</p><p><blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>197.35</p><p><blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>211.74</p><p><blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>244.02</p><p><blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>280.50</p><p><blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>18.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>18.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>13.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>39.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店市场份额('e')</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>* B = A x C</i></p><p><blockquote><i>*B=A x C</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>*D = B x E</i></p><p><blockquote><i>*D=B x E</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Rise of Third-party Seller Services</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第三方卖家服务的兴起</b></blockquote></p><p> Another major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的另一个主要优势是其物流和运输业务，这已成为一条难以逾越的护城河，很少有其他公司拥有资源或能力与之匹敌，亚马逊与该国大多数主要送货提供商合作。通过利用其强大的网络，它提供的计划使卖家能够通过其市场销售产品并通过公司履行订单。</blockquote></p><p> With Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore&nbsp;products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.</p><p><blockquote>通过亚马逊物流（“FBA”），第三方卖家在亚马逊的运营中心存储产品，并为这些产品挑选、包装、运输和提供客户服务。亚马逊不是卖家，但从主要由中小型企业组成的第三方卖家的安排中赚取佣金以及相关的履行和运输费用，包括库存管理、支付处理、货件跟踪和报告。</blockquote></p><p> Selling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately&nbsp;provides&nbsp;more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising&nbsp;share&nbsp;of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.</p><p><blockquote>作为第三方卖家在亚马逊上销售是卖家越来越受欢迎的选择。它最终提供了更大的灵活性和控制力、更强大的品牌影响力和更好的数据访问。在过去的几年里，亚马逊上第三方卖家的崛起，第三方销售额占其商品总销售额的比例不断上升，达到总销售额的62%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed0a2a75af197d4bf9dca92caab27d6c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: FourWeekMBA</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：FourWeekMBA</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it&nbsp;enhances&nbsp;its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business&nbsp;delivered&nbsp;1.9 bln packages in the US.</p><p><blockquote>下图进一步说明了亚马逊庞大的物流和运输网络。其履行中心网络是其增强物流和运输流程的几种方式之一，与联邦快递和UPS竞争，并且一直在加大力度推出其交付网络以及不断增长的飞机、无人机和货车机队。亚马逊自己的物流业务在美国运送了19亿个包裹。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732f32df08132a67f1f9ead2376b2fb\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"233\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: WebFX</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：WebFX</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Moreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming&nbsp;opening&nbsp;of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it&nbsp;announced&nbsp;plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.</p><p><blockquote>此外，其广泛的物流和运输覆盖范围在美国拥有100多个活跃仓库，其中加利福尼亚州、德克萨斯州和新泽西州的设施数量最多。此外，它正在南部大力扩张，规划仓库数量最多。例如，即将于2021年在密苏里州开设一个100万平方英尺的履行中心，员工将在那里包装和运输大型客户物品，如庭院家具、户外设备或地毯。2020年，该公司宣布了7个新履行中心的计划，包括佛罗里达州600,000平方英尺的设施、田纳西州855,000平方英尺的设施和德克萨斯州625,000平方英尺的履行中心。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d45f3a6df0a41b23e4f1d8fe2edb77d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: CNBC</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：CNBC</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Overall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has&nbsp;free&nbsp;Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，这些都是该公司凭借其广泛的物流网络在运输速度方面的优势的因素之一。该公司因其快速运输而非常受欢迎，甚至为Prime会员提供免费的两天甚至当天运输计划。根据下面的调查，大多数人或80%的人认为快速和免费送货是选择亚马逊的主要原因。我们相信，公司的计划扩张将继续增强其物流网络并保持其在客户中的受欢迎程度。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4143366dbcb762fad253420cdb1b5f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"409\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> We forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which&nbsp;represents&nbsp;60% of its total sales.</p><p><blockquote>我们预测了该公司的零售第三方卖家服务收入，其中包括来自第三方卖家销售的履行服务相关收入。随着第三方销售在其市场上越来越受欢迎，亚马逊的第三方商品销售总额预计将在过去5年的平均增长率为9%。此外，我们还预测，随着亚马逊继续扩大其履行能力以迎合第三方卖家，亚马逊的收入份额将从两年平均水平的27.3%增长1%。这一趋势也被认为对公司的利润率扩张具有重要意义，因为第三方卖家服务的毛利率估计在销售额的60%至75%之间，低于AWS的80%，但仍高于公司的整体毛利率37%由于与占总销售额60%的销售成本相关的高成本。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Third-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>第三方卖家服务收入（十亿美元）</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2016</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2016</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2017</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2017</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2018</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2018</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2019</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2019</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2020</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2020</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2021F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2021F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2022F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2022F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2023F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2023F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Global Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>全球零售电子商务销售额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1,845</p><p><blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,382</p><p><blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,982</p><p><blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>3,354</p><p><blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,280</p><p><blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,716</p><p><blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5,434</p><p><blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6,247</p><p><blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>29.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>12.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amazon Third Party Market Share ('b')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊第三方市场份额('b')</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>8.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>8.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>8.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21%</p><p><blockquote><td>21%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-2%</p><p><blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-2%</p><p><blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>11%</p><p><blockquote><td>11%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>16%</p><p><blockquote><td>16%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Third-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>第三方（亚马逊商城）GMV('c')</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>103</p><p><blockquote><td>103</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>130</p><p><blockquote><td>130</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>160</p><p><blockquote><td>160</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>200</p><p><blockquote><td>200</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>295</p><p><blockquote><td>295</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>353</p><p><blockquote><td>353</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>443</p><p><blockquote><td>443</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>553</p><p><blockquote><td>553</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>23.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>23.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>47.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>47.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>19.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>% Of Revenues ('d')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>佔收入百分比（“d”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>22.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>24.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>24.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>28.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>28.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>9.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>0.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>0.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>1.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Retail third-party seller services revenues ('e')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务收入（“e”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.99</p><p><blockquote><td>22.99</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.88</p><p><blockquote><td>31.88</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>42.75</p><p><blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>53.76</p><p><blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>80.46</p><p><blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>97.37</p><p><blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>123.25</p><p><blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>155.61</p><p><blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>38.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>38.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>34.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>49.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>*C = A x B</i></p><p><blockquote><i>*C=A × B</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>*E = C x D</i></p><p><blockquote><i>*E=C x D</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：亚马逊、Statista、Khaveen Investments</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>AWS Growth by Data Volume Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AWS按数据量增长增长</b></blockquote></p><p> Another key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的另一个关键增长领域是云计算，拥有Netflix(NFLX)、Verizon(VZ)、Capital One(COF)、麦当劳(MCD)等著名大客户。2020年AWS收入强劲增长29.5%，占据云基础设施市场31.8%的市场份额。自近20年前推出以来，它多年来已发展成为市场领导者，尽管竞争日益激烈，尤其是来自微软(MSFT)和谷歌的市场份额超过了亚马逊的增长，但它似乎将在可预见的未来维持现状。</blockquote></p><p> The rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.</p><p><blockquote>到2025年，全球数据量将增长23%，这支撑了云基础设施市场的快速增长，因为随着数据分析、5G和物联网的兴起，世界变得更加数据驱动，数据量预计将增长到180 zettabytes以上刺激了数据创建的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d467bae68efe047fa8c695360d5b551c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23%&nbsp;CAGR&nbsp;through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.</p><p><blockquote>我们预测云基础设施市场的增长基于到2025年数据量以23%的CAGR增长，平均云基础设施/数据增长系数为1.72。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd3a646de29cd8f5659eeaabcbf4831d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>*A=B x C资料来源：Statista、Khaveen Investments</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Thus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently&nbsp;announced&nbsp;a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.</p><p><blockquote>因此，尽管随着微软等竞争对手的增长速度超过AWS，AWS的市场份额趋于稳定，但我们仍然相信随着数据量的增长，云基础设施市场存在巨大机遇。更不用说，该公司通过新的客户关系强调了其对AWS的承诺，例如世界各地的主要体育联盟，包括国家曲棍球联盟、PGA巡回赛、一级方程式赛车和德国德甲联赛。此外，它最近还宣布与Dish Network建立合作关系，以构建基于云的5G基础设施，并将扩大其在以色列和阿拉伯联合酋长国的数据中心足迹。它目前在25个地理区域提供80个可用区，并计划再推出15个可用区来支持其云增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ebc384fe7bf254090200574fd352254\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Canalys, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Canalys、Khaveen投资</span></p></blockquote></p><p> All in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，我们基于市场份额预测假设来预测AWS的收入增长，即其市场份额领先地位正在被快速增长的竞争对手（尤其是微软）慢慢削弱，但在利用AWS的稳固大客户关系的支持下仍保持其市场领先地位。根据到2023年30.7%的市场份额预测，我们预计AWS收入将增长至815亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>AWS Forecasts</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>AWS预测</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2018</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2018</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2019</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2019</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2020</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2020</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2021F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2021F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2022F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2022F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2023F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2023F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>AWS Market Share</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>AWS市场份额</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>32.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>32.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>32.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>32.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>31.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>31.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>30.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>30.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>AWS Revenues ($ bln)</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>AWS收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.66</p><p><blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>35.03</p><p><blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.37</p><p><blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>54.58</p><p><blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>66.81</p><p><blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>81.52</p><p><blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>47.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>36.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>29.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>Source: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：亚马逊、Canalys、Khaveen Investments</i></blockquote></p><p> While AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.</p><p><blockquote>虽然AWS仅占其总收入的11%，但与其他公司部门的2.8%相比，其29%的高利润率使AWS在2020年占营业收入的59%，这凸显了AWS对其利润的重要性。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17ae44c90f44af56478935039edb4cc7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Amazon</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：亚马逊</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Antimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>反垄断和数据隐私罚款风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Amazon has been&nbsp;involved&nbsp;in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.</p><p><blockquote>民主党的报告称，亚马逊一直被指控不公平地从第三方卖家那里获取数据和信息，该公司在美国的电子商务市场份额约为40%。由于卖家对亚马逊销售渠道的依赖，亚马逊可以向卖家收取额外费用，并进一步惩罚卖家在其他网站上降低价格的行为。此外，由众议院议员组成的两党小组正在推动包括亚马逊在内的大型科技公司在一系列广泛的反垄断改革下对其商业行为进行彻底改革，这将使占主导地位的平台更难完成合并，并禁止它们拥有存在明显利益冲突的业务。</blockquote></p><p> Whereas in the&nbsp;European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>而在欧盟，亚马逊遭受了迄今为止最大的GDPR罚款。欧盟正在超越数据泄露，专注于数据实践。亚马逊因违反欧盟数据保护规则而面临8.88亿美元的罚款。亚马逊被指控违反了欧盟的通用数据保护条例（GDPR）。GDPR允许罚款高达亚马逊收入的4%，公布的数字显示，这约占亚马逊2020年213亿美元收入的4.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> The company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.</p><p><blockquote>该公司过去5年的平均收入增长率为29.4%，平均毛利率和净利润率分别为38.6%和3.5%。该公司的优势在于其利润率不断上升，因为由于其利润率更高的云业务的卓越增长，其净利润率也有所上升。AWS部门的营业利润率高达29.6%，而其余业务部门的营业利润率为2.8%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a075f1644a849d94c77b8707596cf501\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> More importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the&nbsp;acquisition&nbsp;of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，该公司拥有良好且强大的现金产生能力，过去5年的平均自由现金流利润率为3.01%。2017年，由于以137亿美元收购Whole Foods，其自由现金流利润率下降。其现金流的优势在于利润率的上升，因为其利润更高的AWS业务比其他部门表现出更高的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78710672b48942ad15fa6ecdd9fffaf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的资产负债表实力在于其偿还债务的强大能力。2020年其净债务为1130亿美元，2020年EBITDA/利息覆盖率为44倍。随着AWS的卓越增长，其盈利能力不断提高，其比率在过去5年中从32倍稳步上升。</blockquote></p><p> To value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.</p><p><blockquote>为了对亚马逊进行估值，我们使用了DCF估值，因为该公司过去拥有正的自由现金流。基于可比公司，我们得到的行业平均EV/EBITDA为27.64倍，如下表所示。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Company</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>公司</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>EV/EBITDA</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>EV/EBITDA</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amazon</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>28.57x</p><p><blockquote><td>28.57 x</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Alibaba (BABA)</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>阿里巴巴-SW（父亲）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21.14x</p><p><blockquote><td>21.14 x</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Microsoft</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>微软</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.89x</p><p><blockquote><td>25.89 x</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Google</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>谷歌</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.46x</p><p><blockquote><td>22.46 x</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Average</b></p><p><blockquote><tr><td><b>均值</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>24.52x</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>24.52 x</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>Source: SeekingAlpha</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：SeekingAlpha</i></blockquote></p><p> The revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.</p><p><blockquote>收入增长预测根据其在线商店、实体店、零售第三方卖家服务、订阅服务、AWS和其他的收入细分总结如下。网上商店预测源自其对电子商务市场预测增长的市场份额假设，而实体店销售则基于2021年7.2%的零售额增长率预测。零售第三方卖家服务来自其在整个电子商务市场中的第三方卖家GMV份额，并假设其从佣金和相关费用中获得%的收入。基于不断增长的数据量预测，AWS收入来自云市场增长。其他细分市场基于其平均3年增长率。2023年之后，我们下调了增长预测，到2027年，电子商务和云计算市场的加权复合年增长率为14.2%，并从2027年的12.3%逐步下调，到2030年每年下降2%，因为我们预计电子商务和云计算市场将更加成熟。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Amazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>亚马逊收入预测（十亿美元）</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2018</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2018</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2019</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2019</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2020</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2020</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2021F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2021F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2022F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2022F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2023F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2023F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Online stores</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>在线商店</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>122.99</p><p><blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>141.25</p><p><blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>197.35</p><p><blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>211.74</p><p><blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>244.02</p><p><blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>280.50</p><p><blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>13.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>39.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Physical stores</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>实体店</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>17.22</p><p><blockquote><td>17.22</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>17.19</p><p><blockquote><td>17.19</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>16.23</p><p><blockquote><td>16.23</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>17.40</p><p><blockquote><td>17.40</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>18.55</p><p><blockquote><td>18.55</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.38</p><p><blockquote><td>19.38</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>196.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>196.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-0.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>-0.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-5.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>-5.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.20%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.60%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.50%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Retail third-party seller services</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>42.75</p><p><blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>53.76</p><p><blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>80.46</p><p><blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>97.37</p><p><blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>123.25</p><p><blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>155.61</p><p><blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>34.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>49.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Subscription services</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>订阅服务</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14.17</p><p><blockquote><td>14.17</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.21</p><p><blockquote><td>19.21</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.21</p><p><blockquote><td>25.21</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>34.67</p><p><blockquote><td>34.67</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>47.68</p><p><blockquote><td>47.68</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>65.58</p><p><blockquote><td>65.58</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>35.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>35.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>37.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>37.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>37.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>AWS</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>AWS</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.66</p><p><blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>35.03</p><p><blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.37</p><p><blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>54.58</p><p><blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>66.81</p><p><blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>81.52</p><p><blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>47.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>36.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>29.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Other</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>其他的</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10.11</p><p><blockquote><td>10.11</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14.09</p><p><blockquote><td>14.09</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21.45</p><p><blockquote><td>21.45</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.27</p><p><blockquote><td>31.27</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.60</p><p><blockquote><td>45.60</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>66.48</p><p><blockquote><td>66.48</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>117.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>117.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>39.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>39.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>52.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>52.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></p><p></td>    <td>45.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Total</b></p><p><blockquote><tr><td><b>总的</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>232.9</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>232.9</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>280.53</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>280.53</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>386.07</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>386.07</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>447.0</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>447.0</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>545.9</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>545.9</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>669.1</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>669.1</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Total Growth %</b></p><p><blockquote><tr><td><b>总增长%</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>30.9%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>30.9%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>20.5%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>20.5%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>37.6%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>37.6%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>15.8%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>15.8%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>22.1%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>22.1%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>22.6%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>22.6%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</i></blockquote></p><p> Based on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.</p><p><blockquote>基于12.7%的贴现率（公司的WACC），我们的模型显示上涨空间为36.9%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74c5d7c65d544d533d2e87bb62270fb1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：卡文投资</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Verdict</b></p><p><blockquote><b>裁决</b></blockquote></p><p> In conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as a<i>Buy</i>with a price target of<i>$4,363.96.</i></p><p><blockquote>总之，我们分析了该公司的主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方卖家服务和AWS。虽然加速增长最终结束，但作为电子商务领域成熟且占主导地位的市场领导者，其增长前景仍然极具吸引力。随着消费者购买行为转向电子商务，电子商务销售额占零售总额的百分比预计将继续上升，预计到2023年将达到22%。该公司的Prime会员为其提供了大约占美国人口一半的忠实客户群。此外，另一个关键优势是其庞大的物流和运输网络，亚马逊FBA在其在线市场上看到第三方卖家的持续增长。最后，在可预见的未来，AWS仍然是明显的市场领导者，与大型企业客户有着密切的关系，管理层也不断致力于满足该细分市场不断增长的基础设施需求。因此，尽管预计2021年增长正常化，但我们认为其前景继续受到电子商务和云计算市场不断增长的提振，并将我们的增长率预测修正为2021年的15.8%，随后修正为2020年的22%。总体而言，我们将该股评级为<i>购买</i>目标价格为<i>$4,363.96.</i></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-08 11:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.</li>  <li>While growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.</li>  <li>AWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.</li>  <li>We revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2ca0bbeb0cb7be66a257f4e9d5f5fa1\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>公司2020年收入增长超出我们预期，我们将其增长率预测修正为15.8%。</li><li>尽管在经历了强劲活动的辉煌一年后，增长正在放缓，但该公司仍有望从电子商务转变中受益，预计零售渗透率为22%。</li><li>在可预见的未来，AWS预计仍将是第一大市场领导者。</li><li>我们使用DCF分析修改了估值，从3,358.73美元获得了4,303.18美元的新目标价。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>4kodiak/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since our previous&nbsp;coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.</p><p><blockquote>自我们上次报道以来，亚马逊公司(AMZN)的股价已上涨26%，超出了我们24.5%的收入增长预期，并在2020年底上涨了37.6%，其在线零售业务增长了40%，达到近2000亿美元，第三方服务800亿美元。在本次分析中，我们重新审视了其主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方服务和AWS。</blockquote></p><p> Despite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3&nbsp;guidance&nbsp;of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.</p><p><blockquote>尽管第二季度网上商店销售额增长疲软13%，第三季度同比指引中点疲软13%，表明增长正常化的迹象，但电子商务市场的长期增长前景仍然具有吸引力。亚马逊已确立市场地位的在线零售。随着越来越多的消费者将购买行为转移到网上，预计到2023年，电子商务的份额将从2020年的18%达到22%。我们相信，亚马逊稳固的市场地位、作为忠实客户的庞大Prime会员基础以及坚实的物流和运输网络为其提供了优势，正如其与第三方卖家的电子商务市场的崛起所证明的那样。此外，在可预见的未来，其云业务预计仍将是云基础设施市场的市场领导者，持续致力于增长并以不断增长的数据量为基础。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a78658eabc40ec60c6713019d6f800c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Amazon</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：亚马逊</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>E-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>尽管增长正常化，电子商务销售前景仍然有吸引力</b></blockquote></p><p> Amazon's online store&nbsp;sales&nbsp;have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊的在线商店销售额在2020年从上一年的14.8%飙升了40%，因为它受益于对实体零售商的长期封锁和限制，加速了向电子商务的采用。然而，尽管2021年第二季度在线商店增长同比放缓13%，而第一季度为41%，但我们相信该公司将继续受益于电子商务采用率不断上升的长期推动力。</blockquote></p><p> According to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to&nbsp;reach&nbsp;22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.</p><p><blockquote>根据eMarketer的数据，随着消费者继续转向在线购买，电子商务销售额的份额预计将达到全球零售额的22%。随着全球疫苗接种运动和商业限制的放松，全球零售额预计将反弹7.2%。因此，2021年电子商务销售额预测为10.2%，较2019年的27.6%实现正常化增长，渗透率从去年的14%飙升至18%。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Global E-Commerce Market ($ bln)</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>全球电子商务市场（十亿美元）</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2016</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2016</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2017</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2017</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2018</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2018</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2019</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2019</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2020</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2020</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2021F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2021F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2022F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2022F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2023F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2023F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Total Global Retail Sales ('a')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>全球零售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21,453</p><p><blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22,904</p><p><blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>23,560</p><p><blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>24,780</p><p><blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>23,778</p><p><blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25,490</p><p><blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27,172</p><p><blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>28,395</p><p><blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-4.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.20%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.60%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.50%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1,845</p><p><blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,382</p><p><blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,982</p><p><blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>3,354</p><p><blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,280</p><p><blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,716</p><p><blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5,434</p><p><blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6,247</p><p><blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>29.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>12.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Penetration Rate ('c')</b></p><p><blockquote><tr><td><b>渗透率（“c”）</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10%</p><p><blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>12%</p><p><blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14%</p><p><blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>18%</p><p><blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19%</p><p><blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20%</p><p><blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22%</p><p><blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>* B = C x A</i></p><p><blockquote><i>*B=C x A</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：Statista、eMarketer、Khaveen Investments</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Amazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US&nbsp;population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊既定的市场定位是其利用市场增长的额外竞争优势。更具体地说，很难在价格、选择和便利性等关键标准上赢得公司的支持。显然，该公司的Prime会员在2020年继续增长15%，达到1.425亿会员，约占美国人口的43%。这表明忠实客户对该公司具有强大的吸引力，为其提供了庞大的安装基础。通过Prime会员，也推动消费者购买更多，以获得各种福利。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125c2baa1b52e2787075210f05321e20\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"492\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Backlinko</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Backlinko</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently&nbsp;attract&nbsp;sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.</p><p><blockquote>除了Prime会员之外，该公司还能够持续吸引卖家到其平台，自2017年以来新增卖家330万人，即每天3,718人。目前，它在美国、英国、德国、日本等地拥有970万卖家。因此，该公司已确立了自己作为市场主导者的地位，并在电子商务销售方面远远领先于第二接近的竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6272ba7ee8cf6f5aab477b8425f34923\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Marketing Charts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：营销图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Its market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer &amp; consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel &amp; accessories, books music &amp; video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.</p><p><blockquote>如下表所示，其在不同产品类别和市场中的市场领导地位相当广泛。例如，其消费品和消费电子产品销售额是最大的产品类别，占美国电子商务总销售额的50.2%，占零售总额的26.7%。其次是服装和配饰、书籍、音乐和视频以及家具和家居用品，分别占电子商务销售额的32%、83.2%和34.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6765530fd408a02c75515a712af4087\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"725\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: eMarketer</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：eMarketer</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Among the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having&nbsp;purchased&nbsp;electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software&nbsp;updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker&nbsp;units&nbsp;and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average&nbsp;price&nbsp;of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.</p><p><blockquote>在产品类别中，电子产品类别最受美国购物者欢迎，44%的美国购物者在亚马逊上购买过电子产品。它还销售自己的电子设备，包括Echo智能扬声器，占美国市场份额的70%，其次是谷歌(GOOG)和苹果(AAPL)，并继续通过新一代产品和软件更新来开发该产品。2020年，该公司智能音箱出货量超过3800万台，占全球出货量市场份额的28.3%。根据Echo产品系列103美元的平均价格，我们估计其智能扬声器销售收入约为39.4亿美元，约占其在线商店收入的2%。然而，它也面临着日益激烈的竞争，尤其是来自主导中国市场的百度（BIDU）和小米（OTCPK：XIACF）等中国制造商的竞争。</blockquote></p><p> All in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln&nbsp;products&nbsp;excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，该公司拥有1200万种产品，不包括书籍、媒体、葡萄酒和服务，随着卖家基础的不断增长，我们预计这一产品广度将继续扩大，并通过产品多样性为客户提供独特的价值主张。</blockquote></p><p> Thus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们预计其拥有稳固的市场主导地位，拥有成熟的客户群和忠诚的Prime会员生态系统，以及在各种关键产品类别中拥有广泛的市场领导地位和广泛的产品广度的庞大卖家基础，以支持其长期增长。我们预测其在线商店增长是基于我们对其市场份额的预期（基于全球电子商务销售额的5年平均值）为4.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Amazon Online Stores ($ bln)</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>亚马逊在线商店（十亿美元）</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2016</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2016</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2017</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2017</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2018</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2018</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2019</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2019</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2020</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2020</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2021F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2021F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2022F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2022F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2023F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2023F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Total Retail Sales ('a')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>零售销售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21,453</p><p><blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22,904</p><p><blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>23,560</p><p><blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>24,780</p><p><blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>23,778</p><p><blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25,490</p><p><blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27,172</p><p><blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>28,395</p><p><blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-4.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.20%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.60%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.50%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1,845</p><p><blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,382</p><p><blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,982</p><p><blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>3,354</p><p><blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,280</p><p><blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,716</p><p><blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5,434</p><p><blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6,247</p><p><blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>29.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>12.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Penetration Rate ('c')</b></p><p><blockquote><tr><td><b>渗透率（“c”）</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></p><p></p><p></td>    <td>10%</p><p><blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>12%</p><p><blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14%</p><p><blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>18%</p><p><blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19%</p><p><blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20%</p><p><blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22%</p><p><blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>16.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>16.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>20.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>17.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>17.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>11.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>11.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>32.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>32.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>2.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>8.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>10.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店收入('d')</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>91.43</p><p><blockquote><td>91.43</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>108.35</p><p><blockquote><td>108.35</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>122.99</p><p><blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>141.25</p><p><blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>197.35</p><p><blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>211.74</p><p><blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>244.02</p><p><blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>280.50</p><p><blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>18.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>18.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>13.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>39.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店市场份额('e')</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>* B = A x C</i></p><p><blockquote><i>*B=A x C</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>*D = B x E</i></p><p><blockquote><i>*D=B x E</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Rise of Third-party Seller Services</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第三方卖家服务的兴起</b></blockquote></p><p> Another major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的另一个主要优势是其物流和运输业务，这已成为一条难以逾越的护城河，很少有其他公司拥有资源或能力与之匹敌，亚马逊与该国大多数主要送货提供商合作。通过利用其强大的网络，它提供的计划使卖家能够通过其市场销售产品并通过公司履行订单。</blockquote></p><p> With Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore&nbsp;products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.</p><p><blockquote>通过亚马逊物流（“FBA”），第三方卖家在亚马逊的运营中心存储产品，并为这些产品挑选、包装、运输和提供客户服务。亚马逊不是卖家，但从主要由中小型企业组成的第三方卖家的安排中赚取佣金以及相关的履行和运输费用，包括库存管理、支付处理、货件跟踪和报告。</blockquote></p><p> Selling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately&nbsp;provides&nbsp;more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising&nbsp;share&nbsp;of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.</p><p><blockquote>作为第三方卖家在亚马逊上销售是卖家越来越受欢迎的选择。它最终提供了更大的灵活性和控制力、更强大的品牌影响力和更好的数据访问。在过去的几年里，亚马逊上第三方卖家的崛起，第三方销售额占其商品总销售额的比例不断上升，达到总销售额的62%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed0a2a75af197d4bf9dca92caab27d6c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: FourWeekMBA</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：FourWeekMBA</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it&nbsp;enhances&nbsp;its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business&nbsp;delivered&nbsp;1.9 bln packages in the US.</p><p><blockquote>下图进一步说明了亚马逊庞大的物流和运输网络。其履行中心网络是其增强物流和运输流程的几种方式之一，与联邦快递和UPS竞争，并且一直在加大力度推出其交付网络以及不断增长的飞机、无人机和货车机队。亚马逊自己的物流业务在美国运送了19亿个包裹。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732f32df08132a67f1f9ead2376b2fb\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"233\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: WebFX</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：WebFX</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Moreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming&nbsp;opening&nbsp;of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it&nbsp;announced&nbsp;plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.</p><p><blockquote>此外，其广泛的物流和运输覆盖范围在美国拥有100多个活跃仓库，其中加利福尼亚州、德克萨斯州和新泽西州的设施数量最多。此外，它正在南部大力扩张，规划仓库数量最多。例如，即将于2021年在密苏里州开设一个100万平方英尺的履行中心，员工将在那里包装和运输大型客户物品，如庭院家具、户外设备或地毯。2020年，该公司宣布了7个新履行中心的计划，包括佛罗里达州600,000平方英尺的设施、田纳西州855,000平方英尺的设施和德克萨斯州625,000平方英尺的履行中心。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d45f3a6df0a41b23e4f1d8fe2edb77d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: CNBC</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：CNBC</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Overall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has&nbsp;free&nbsp;Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，这些都是该公司凭借其广泛的物流网络在运输速度方面的优势的因素之一。该公司因其快速运输而非常受欢迎，甚至为Prime会员提供免费的两天甚至当天运输计划。根据下面的调查，大多数人或80%的人认为快速和免费送货是选择亚马逊的主要原因。我们相信，公司的计划扩张将继续增强其物流网络并保持其在客户中的受欢迎程度。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4143366dbcb762fad253420cdb1b5f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"409\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> We forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which&nbsp;represents&nbsp;60% of its total sales.</p><p><blockquote>我们预测了该公司的零售第三方卖家服务收入，其中包括来自第三方卖家销售的履行服务相关收入。随着第三方销售在其市场上越来越受欢迎，亚马逊的第三方商品销售总额预计将在过去5年的平均增长率为9%。此外，我们还预测，随着亚马逊继续扩大其履行能力以迎合第三方卖家，亚马逊的收入份额将从两年平均水平的27.3%增长1%。这一趋势也被认为对公司的利润率扩张具有重要意义，因为第三方卖家服务的毛利率估计在销售额的60%至75%之间，低于AWS的80%，但仍高于公司的整体毛利率37%由于与占总销售额60%的销售成本相关的高成本。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Third-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>第三方卖家服务收入（十亿美元）</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2016</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2016</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2017</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2017</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2018</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2018</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2019</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2019</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2020</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2020</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2021F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2021F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2022F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2022F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2023F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2023F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Global Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>全球零售电子商务销售额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1,845</p><p><blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,382</p><p><blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,982</p><p><blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>3,354</p><p><blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,280</p><p><blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,716</p><p><blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5,434</p><p><blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6,247</p><p><blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>29.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>12.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amazon Third Party Market Share ('b')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊第三方市场份额('b')</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>8.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>8.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>8.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21%</p><p><blockquote><td>21%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-2%</p><p><blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-2%</p><p><blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>11%</p><p><blockquote><td>11%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>16%</p><p><blockquote><td>16%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Third-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>第三方（亚马逊商城）GMV('c')</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>103</p><p><blockquote><td>103</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>130</p><p><blockquote><td>130</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>160</p><p><blockquote><td>160</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>200</p><p><blockquote><td>200</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>295</p><p><blockquote><td>295</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>353</p><p><blockquote><td>353</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>443</p><p><blockquote><td>443</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>553</p><p><blockquote><td>553</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>23.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>23.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>47.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>47.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>19.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>% Of Revenues ('d')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>佔收入百分比（“d”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>22.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>24.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>24.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>28.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>28.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>9.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>0.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>0.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>1.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Retail third-party seller services revenues ('e')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务收入（“e”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.99</p><p><blockquote><td>22.99</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.88</p><p><blockquote><td>31.88</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>42.75</p><p><blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>53.76</p><p><blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>80.46</p><p><blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>97.37</p><p><blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>123.25</p><p><blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>155.61</p><p><blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>38.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>38.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>34.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>49.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>*C = A x B</i></p><p><blockquote><i>*C=A × B</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>*E = C x D</i></p><p><blockquote><i>*E=C x D</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：亚马逊、Statista、Khaveen Investments</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>AWS Growth by Data Volume Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AWS按数据量增长增长</b></blockquote></p><p> Another key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的另一个关键增长领域是云计算，拥有Netflix(NFLX)、Verizon(VZ)、Capital One(COF)、麦当劳(MCD)等著名大客户。2020年AWS收入强劲增长29.5%，占据云基础设施市场31.8%的市场份额。自近20年前推出以来，它多年来已发展成为市场领导者，尽管竞争日益激烈，尤其是来自微软(MSFT)和谷歌的市场份额超过了亚马逊的增长，但它似乎将在可预见的未来维持现状。</blockquote></p><p> The rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.</p><p><blockquote>到2025年，全球数据量将增长23%，这支撑了云基础设施市场的快速增长，因为随着数据分析、5G和物联网的兴起，世界变得更加数据驱动，数据量预计将增长到180 zettabytes以上刺激了数据创建的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d467bae68efe047fa8c695360d5b551c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23%&nbsp;CAGR&nbsp;through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.</p><p><blockquote>我们预测云基础设施市场的增长基于到2025年数据量以23%的CAGR增长，平均云基础设施/数据增长系数为1.72。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd3a646de29cd8f5659eeaabcbf4831d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>*A=B x C资料来源：Statista、Khaveen Investments</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Thus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently&nbsp;announced&nbsp;a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.</p><p><blockquote>因此，尽管随着微软等竞争对手的增长速度超过AWS，AWS的市场份额趋于稳定，但我们仍然相信随着数据量的增长，云基础设施市场存在巨大机遇。更不用说，该公司通过新的客户关系强调了其对AWS的承诺，例如世界各地的主要体育联盟，包括国家曲棍球联盟、PGA巡回赛、一级方程式赛车和德国德甲联赛。此外，它最近还宣布与Dish Network建立合作关系，以构建基于云的5G基础设施，并将扩大其在以色列和阿拉伯联合酋长国的数据中心足迹。它目前在25个地理区域提供80个可用区，并计划再推出15个可用区来支持其云增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ebc384fe7bf254090200574fd352254\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Canalys, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Canalys、Khaveen投资</span></p></blockquote></p><p> All in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，我们基于市场份额预测假设来预测AWS的收入增长，即其市场份额领先地位正在被快速增长的竞争对手（尤其是微软）慢慢削弱，但在利用AWS的稳固大客户关系的支持下仍保持其市场领先地位。根据到2023年30.7%的市场份额预测，我们预计AWS收入将增长至815亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>AWS Forecasts</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>AWS预测</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2018</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2018</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2019</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2019</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2020</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2020</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2021F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2021F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2022F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2022F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2023F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2023F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>AWS Market Share</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>AWS市场份额</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>32.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>32.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>32.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>32.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>31.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>31.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>30.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>30.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>AWS Revenues ($ bln)</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>AWS收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.66</p><p><blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>35.03</p><p><blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.37</p><p><blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>54.58</p><p><blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>66.81</p><p><blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>81.52</p><p><blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>47.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>36.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>29.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>Source: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：亚马逊、Canalys、Khaveen Investments</i></blockquote></p><p> While AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.</p><p><blockquote>虽然AWS仅占其总收入的11%，但与其他公司部门的2.8%相比，其29%的高利润率使AWS在2020年占营业收入的59%，这凸显了AWS对其利润的重要性。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17ae44c90f44af56478935039edb4cc7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Amazon</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：亚马逊</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Antimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>反垄断和数据隐私罚款风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Amazon has been&nbsp;involved&nbsp;in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.</p><p><blockquote>民主党的报告称，亚马逊一直被指控不公平地从第三方卖家那里获取数据和信息，该公司在美国的电子商务市场份额约为40%。由于卖家对亚马逊销售渠道的依赖，亚马逊可以向卖家收取额外费用，并进一步惩罚卖家在其他网站上降低价格的行为。此外，由众议院议员组成的两党小组正在推动包括亚马逊在内的大型科技公司在一系列广泛的反垄断改革下对其商业行为进行彻底改革，这将使占主导地位的平台更难完成合并，并禁止它们拥有存在明显利益冲突的业务。</blockquote></p><p> Whereas in the&nbsp;European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>而在欧盟，亚马逊遭受了迄今为止最大的GDPR罚款。欧盟正在超越数据泄露，专注于数据实践。亚马逊因违反欧盟数据保护规则而面临8.88亿美元的罚款。亚马逊被指控违反了欧盟的通用数据保护条例（GDPR）。GDPR允许罚款高达亚马逊收入的4%，公布的数字显示，这约占亚马逊2020年213亿美元收入的4.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> The company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.</p><p><blockquote>该公司过去5年的平均收入增长率为29.4%，平均毛利率和净利润率分别为38.6%和3.5%。该公司的优势在于其利润率不断上升，因为由于其利润率更高的云业务的卓越增长，其净利润率也有所上升。AWS部门的营业利润率高达29.6%，而其余业务部门的营业利润率为2.8%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a075f1644a849d94c77b8707596cf501\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> More importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the&nbsp;acquisition&nbsp;of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，该公司拥有良好且强大的现金产生能力，过去5年的平均自由现金流利润率为3.01%。2017年，由于以137亿美元收购Whole Foods，其自由现金流利润率下降。其现金流的优势在于利润率的上升，因为其利润更高的AWS业务比其他部门表现出更高的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78710672b48942ad15fa6ecdd9fffaf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的资产负债表实力在于其偿还债务的强大能力。2020年其净债务为1130亿美元，2020年EBITDA/利息覆盖率为44倍。随着AWS的卓越增长，其盈利能力不断提高，其比率在过去5年中从32倍稳步上升。</blockquote></p><p> To value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.</p><p><blockquote>为了对亚马逊进行估值，我们使用了DCF估值，因为该公司过去拥有正的自由现金流。基于可比公司，我们得到的行业平均EV/EBITDA为27.64倍，如下表所示。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Company</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>公司</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>EV/EBITDA</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>EV/EBITDA</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amazon</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>28.57x</p><p><blockquote><td>28.57 x</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Alibaba (BABA)</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>阿里巴巴-SW（父亲）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21.14x</p><p><blockquote><td>21.14 x</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Microsoft</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>微软</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.89x</p><p><blockquote><td>25.89 x</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Google</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>谷歌</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.46x</p><p><blockquote><td>22.46 x</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Average</b></p><p><blockquote><tr><td><b>均值</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>24.52x</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>24.52 x</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>Source: SeekingAlpha</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：SeekingAlpha</i></blockquote></p><p> The revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.</p><p><blockquote>收入增长预测根据其在线商店、实体店、零售第三方卖家服务、订阅服务、AWS和其他的收入细分总结如下。网上商店预测源自其对电子商务市场预测增长的市场份额假设，而实体店销售则基于2021年7.2%的零售额增长率预测。零售第三方卖家服务来自其在整个电子商务市场中的第三方卖家GMV份额，并假设其从佣金和相关费用中获得%的收入。基于不断增长的数据量预测，AWS收入来自云市场增长。其他细分市场基于其平均3年增长率。2023年之后，我们下调了增长预测，到2027年，电子商务和云计算市场的加权复合年增长率为14.2%，并从2027年的12.3%逐步下调，到2030年每年下降2%，因为我们预计电子商务和云计算市场将更加成熟。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Amazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>亚马逊收入预测（十亿美元）</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2018</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2018</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2019</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2019</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2020</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2020</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2021F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2021F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2022F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2022F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2023F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2023F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Online stores</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>在线商店</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>122.99</p><p><blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>141.25</p><p><blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>197.35</p><p><blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>211.74</p><p><blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>244.02</p><p><blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>280.50</p><p><blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>13.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>39.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Physical stores</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>实体店</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>17.22</p><p><blockquote><td>17.22</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>17.19</p><p><blockquote><td>17.19</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>16.23</p><p><blockquote><td>16.23</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>17.40</p><p><blockquote><td>17.40</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>18.55</p><p><blockquote><td>18.55</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.38</p><p><blockquote><td>19.38</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>196.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>196.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-0.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>-0.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-5.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>-5.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.20%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.60%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.50%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Retail third-party seller services</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>42.75</p><p><blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>53.76</p><p><blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>80.46</p><p><blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>97.37</p><p><blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>123.25</p><p><blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>155.61</p><p><blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>34.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>49.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Subscription services</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>订阅服务</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14.17</p><p><blockquote><td>14.17</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.21</p><p><blockquote><td>19.21</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.21</p><p><blockquote><td>25.21</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>34.67</p><p><blockquote><td>34.67</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>47.68</p><p><blockquote><td>47.68</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>65.58</p><p><blockquote><td>65.58</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>35.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>35.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>37.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>37.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>37.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>AWS</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>AWS</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.66</p><p><blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>35.03</p><p><blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.37</p><p><blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>54.58</p><p><blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>66.81</p><p><blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>81.52</p><p><blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>47.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>36.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>29.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Other</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>其他的</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10.11</p><p><blockquote><td>10.11</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14.09</p><p><blockquote><td>14.09</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21.45</p><p><blockquote><td>21.45</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.27</p><p><blockquote><td>31.27</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.60</p><p><blockquote><td>45.60</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>66.48</p><p><blockquote><td>66.48</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>117.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>117.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>39.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>39.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>52.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>52.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></p><p></td>    <td>45.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Total</b></p><p><blockquote><tr><td><b>总的</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>232.9</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>232.9</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>280.53</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>280.53</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>386.07</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>386.07</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>447.0</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>447.0</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>545.9</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>545.9</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>669.1</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>669.1</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Total Growth %</b></p><p><blockquote><tr><td><b>总增长%</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>30.9%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>30.9%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>20.5%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>20.5%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>37.6%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>37.6%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>15.8%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>15.8%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>22.1%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>22.1%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>22.6%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>22.6%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</i></blockquote></p><p> Based on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.</p><p><blockquote>基于12.7%的贴现率（公司的WACC），我们的模型显示上涨空间为36.9%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74c5d7c65d544d533d2e87bb62270fb1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：卡文投资</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Verdict</b></p><p><blockquote><b>裁决</b></blockquote></p><p> In conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as a<i>Buy</i>with a price target of<i>$4,363.96.</i></p><p><blockquote>总之，我们分析了该公司的主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方卖家服务和AWS。虽然加速增长最终结束，但作为电子商务领域成熟且占主导地位的市场领导者，其增长前景仍然极具吸引力。随着消费者购买行为转向电子商务，电子商务销售额占零售总额的百分比预计将继续上升，预计到2023年将达到22%。该公司的Prime会员为其提供了大约占美国人口一半的忠实客户群。此外，另一个关键优势是其庞大的物流和运输网络，亚马逊FBA在其在线市场上看到第三方卖家的持续增长。最后，在可预见的未来，AWS仍然是明显的市场领导者，与大型企业客户有着密切的关系，管理层也不断致力于满足该细分市场不断增长的基础设施需求。因此，尽管预计2021年增长正常化，但我们认为其前景继续受到电子商务和云计算市场不断增长的提振，并将我们的增长率预测修正为2021年的15.8%，随后修正为2020年的22%。总体而言，我们将该股评级为<i>购买</i>目标价格为<i>$4,363.96.</i></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453926-amazon-stock-still-attractive\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453926-amazon-stock-still-attractive","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143120804","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.\nWhile growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.\nAWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.\nWe revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.\n\n4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nSince our previous coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.\nDespite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3 guidance of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.\nSource: Amazon\nE-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth\nAmazon's online store sales have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.\nAccording to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to reach 22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.\n\n\n\nGlobal E-Commerce Market ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nTotal Global Retail Sales ('a')\n21,453\n22,904\n23,560\n24,780\n23,778\n25,490\n27,172\n28,395\n\n\nGrowth %\n2.6%\n6.8%\n2.9%\n5.2%\n-4.0%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail E-commerce Sales ('b')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPenetration Rate ('c')\n9%\n10%\n12%\n14%\n18%\n19%\n20%\n22%\n\n\n\n* B = C x A\nSource: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments\nAmazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.\nSource: Backlinko\nIn addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently attract sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.\nSource: Marketing Charts\nIts market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer & consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel & accessories, books music & video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.\nSource: eMarketer\nAmong the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having purchased electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker units and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average price of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.\nAll in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln products excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.\nThus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.\n\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nTotal Retail Sales ('a')\n21,453\n22,904\n23,560\n24,780\n23,778\n25,490\n27,172\n28,395\n\n\nGrowth %\n2.6%\n6.8%\n2.9%\n5.2%\n-4.0%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail E-commerce Sales ('b')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPenetration Rate ('c')\n9%\n10%\n12%\n14%\n18%\n19%\n20%\n22%\n\n\nGrowth %\n16.2%\n20.9%\n17.3%\n11.5%\n32.4%\n2.8%\n8.1%\n10.0%\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')\n91.43\n108.35\n122.99\n141.25\n197.35\n211.74\n244.02\n280.50\n\n\nGrowth %\n18.5%\n13.5%\n14.8%\n39.7%\n7.3%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')\n5.0%\n4.5%\n4.1%\n4.2%\n4.6%\n4.5%\n4.5%\n4.5%\n\n\n\n* B = A x C\n*D = B x E\nSource: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nThe Rise of Third-party Seller Services\nAnother major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.\nWith Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.\nSelling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately provides more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising share of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.\nSource: FourWeekMBA\nThe chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it enhances its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business delivered 1.9 bln packages in the US.\nSource: WebFX\nMoreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming opening of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it announced plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.\nSource: CNBC\nOverall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has free Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.\nSource: Statista\nWe forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which represents 60% of its total sales.\n\n\n\nThird-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nGlobal Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nAmazon Third Party Market Share ('b')\n5.6%\n5.5%\n5.4%\n6.0%\n6.9%\n7.5%\n8.1%\n8.9%\n\n\nGrowth %\n21%\n-2%\n-2%\n11%\n16%\n9%\n9%\n9%\n\n\nThird-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')\n103\n130\n160\n200\n295\n353\n443\n553\n\n\nGrowth %\n26.2%\n23.1%\n25.0%\n47.5%\n19.8%\n25.3%\n25.0%\n\n\n% Of Revenues ('d')\n22.3%\n24.5%\n26.7%\n26.9%\n27.3%\n27.6%\n27.8%\n28.1%\n\n\nGrowth %\n9.9%\n9.0%\n0.6%\n1.5%\n1.0%\n1.0%\n1.0%\n\n\nRetail third-party seller services revenues ('e')\n22.99\n31.88\n42.75\n53.76\n80.46\n97.37\n123.25\n155.61\n\n\nGrowth %\n38.7%\n34.1%\n25.8%\n49.7%\n21.0%\n26.6%\n26.3%\n\n\n\n*C = A x B\n*E = C x D\nSource: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments\nAWS Growth by Data Volume Growth\nAnother key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.\nThe rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.\nSource: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nWe projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23% CAGR through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.\n* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nThus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently announced a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.\nSource: Canalys, Khaveen Investments\nAll in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.\n\n\n\nAWS Forecasts\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nAWS Market Share\n32.6%\n32.3%\n31.8%\n31.2%\n31.0%\n30.7%\n\n\nAWS Revenues ($ bln)\n25.66\n35.03\n45.37\n54.58\n66.81\n81.52\n\n\nGrowth %\n47.0%\n36.5%\n29.5%\n20.3%\n22.4%\n22.0%\n\n\n\nSource: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments\nWhile AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.\nSource: Amazon\nAntimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk\nAmazon has been involved in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.\nWhereas in the European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.\nValuation\nThe company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nMore importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the acquisition of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nThe company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.\nTo value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.\n\n\n\nCompany\nEV/EBITDA\n\n\nAmazon\n28.57x\n\n\nAlibaba (BABA)\n21.14x\n\n\nMicrosoft\n25.89x\n\n\nGoogle\n22.46x\n\n\nAverage\n24.52x\n\n\n\nSource: SeekingAlpha\nThe revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.\n\n\n\nAmazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nOnline stores\n122.99\n141.25\n197.35\n211.74\n244.02\n280.50\n\n\nGrowth %\n13.5%\n14.8%\n39.7%\n7.3%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPhysical stores\n17.22\n17.19\n16.23\n17.40\n18.55\n19.38\n\n\nGrowth %\n196.9%\n-0.2%\n-5.6%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail third-party seller services\n42.75\n53.76\n80.46\n97.37\n123.25\n155.61\n\n\nGrowth %\n34.1%\n25.8%\n49.7%\n21.0%\n26.6%\n26.3%\n\n\nSubscription services\n14.17\n19.21\n25.21\n34.67\n47.68\n65.58\n\n\nGrowth %\n45.8%\n35.6%\n31.2%\n37.5%\n37.5%\n37.5%\n\n\nAWS\n25.66\n35.03\n45.37\n54.58\n66.81\n81.52\n\n\nGrowth %\n47.0%\n36.5%\n29.5%\n20.3%\n22.4%\n22.0%\n\n\nOther\n10.11\n14.09\n21.45\n31.27\n45.60\n66.48\n\n\nGrowth %\n117.4%\n39.4%\n52.2%\n45.8%\n45.8%\n45.8%\n\n\nTotal\n232.9\n280.53\n386.07\n447.0\n545.9\n669.1\n\n\nTotal Growth %\n30.9%\n20.5%\n37.6%\n15.8%\n22.1%\n22.6%\n\n\n\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nBased on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.\nSource: Khaveen Investments\nVerdict\nIn conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as aBuywith a price target of$4,363.96.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2474,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":890784357,"gmtCreate":1628134590679,"gmtModify":1631891625457,"author":{"id":"3583806200035507","authorId":"3583806200035507","name":"HuiBing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583806200035507","authorIdStr":"3583806200035507"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment","listText":"Like and comment","text":"Like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/890784357","repostId":"1187380753","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187380753","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628133104,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1187380753?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-05 11:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"You Can Short Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation Fund. But Is It a Good Idea?<blockquote>你可以做空凯西·伍德的方舟创新基金。但这是个好主意吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187380753","media":"Barrons","summary":"For those bearish on ARK Invest’s innovation-driven stock picks, there might soon be a new ETF that ","content":"<p>For those bearish on ARK Invest’s innovation-driven stock picks, there might soon be a new ETF that allows investors to bet against them.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些看跌ARK Invest创新驱动型股票的人来说，可能很快就会有一只新的ETF允许投资者做空它们。</blockquote></p><p> Tuttle Capital Management, a small fund company with 10 ETFs and $228 million under management, has filed to launch the Short ARKK ETF under the ticker SARK. The fund would seek to track the inverse performance of the $23 billion ARK Innovation ETF (ticker: ARKK) through swaps contracts, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.</p><p><blockquote>Tuttle Capital Management是一家小型基金公司，管理着10只ETF和2.28亿美元，已申请推出空头ARKK ETF，股票代码为SARK。根据向美国证券交易委员会提交的文件，该基金将寻求通过掉期合约跟踪价值230亿美元的ARK Innovation ETF（股票代码：ARKK）的反向表现。</blockquote></p><p> Inverse ETFs have been around a long time, but most bet against a broad-market index or particular sector, rather than an actively managed portfolio like ARK’s. “As far as I’m aware, it’s unprecedented,” said Ben Johnson, director of global exchange-traded fund research for Morningstar.</p><p><blockquote>反向ETF已经存在很长时间了，但大多数都做空大盘指数或特定行业，而不是像ARK这样的主动管理投资组合。“据我所知，这是前所未有的，”晨星公司全球交易所交易基金研究总监本·约翰逊表示。</blockquote></p><p> It’s not the first time that Wall Street broke norms in order to tap on investors’ surging interest—whether bullish or bearish—in ARK and its stock-picking CEO, Cathie Wood.</p><p><blockquote>这并不是华尔街第一次打破规范，以利用投资者对ARK及其选股首席执行官凯西·伍德(Cathie Wood)日益高涨的兴趣（无论是看涨还是看跌）。</blockquote></p><p> Earlier this year, big investment banks started issuing&nbsp;structured notes tied to the firm’s actively managed ETFs. These debt securities involve complicated derivatives trades that promise some participation in the underlying assets’ gains but a certain level of downside protection<b>.</b>They are traditionally tied to single stocks or indexes like the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，大型投资银行开始发行与该公司主动管理型ETF挂钩的结构性票据。这些债务证券涉及复杂的衍生品交易，承诺在一定程度上参与基础资产的收益，但提供一定程度的下行保护<b>.</b>传统上，它们与单一股票或标准普尔500指数等指数挂钩。</blockquote></p><p> The filing for the Short ARKK ETF came as ARK funds are struggling to repeat their spectacular performance of last year. The ARK Innovation ETF, for example, gained roughly 150% in 2020 as one of the top-performing ETFs of the year. Year to date, it’s down 4.4%,after plunging 24% from the February peak.</p><p><blockquote>申请做空ARKK ETF之际，ARK基金正在努力重复去年的出色表现。例如，ARK Innovation ETF在2020年上涨了约150%，成为当年表现最好的ETF之一。今年迄今为止，该指数已下跌4.4%，较2月份的峰值暴跌24%。</blockquote></p><p> Some investors think Wood’s heavy bets on&nbsp;highflying tech stockslike&nbsp;Tesla(TSLA) and&nbsp;Square(SQ) have made the fund’s portfolio&nbsp;too expensive and risky, which has weighed on its performance this year as investors favored the cheaper cyclical stocks that could benefit from the postpandemic recovery.</p><p><blockquote>一些投资者认为，伍德对特斯拉(TSLA)和Square(SQ)等飞速发展的科技股的大举押注使得该基金的投资组合过于昂贵且风险太大，这影响了其今年的业绩，因为投资者青睐可能受益于疫情后复苏的廉价周期性股票。</blockquote></p><p> ARK did not respond to a request for comment.</p><p><blockquote>方舟没有回应置评请求。</blockquote></p><p> Even for investors skeptical about Wood’s penchant for innovation stocks, though, buying an anti-ARK ETF might not be the smartest thing to do. Anyone that doesn’t like the ARK funds can simply not buy them. Shorting them could bring more risks than the potential rewards.</p><p><blockquote>不过，即使对于对伍德对创新股的偏好持怀疑态度的投资者来说，购买反方舟ETF可能也不是最明智的做法。任何不喜欢方舟基金的人都不能购买。做空它们可能会带来比潜在回报更多的风险。</blockquote></p><p> “The odds you’re going to profit from those bearish beliefs by short selling these funds are pretty small,” said Morningstar’s Johnson, “The upside is limited, the best you can get is a 100% return on your investment, and that’s assuming ARK will run its portfolios to the ground, which isn’t going to happen. On the other hand, the worst that could happen is that if ARK has another year like they did last year. You’ll get absolutely torched.”</p><p><blockquote>晨星公司的约翰逊表示：“你通过卖空这些基金从这些看跌信念中获利的可能性非常小，上涨空间有限，你能获得的最好结果是100%的投资回报，这是假设ARK将把其投资组合搞得一团糟，这是不会发生的。另一方面，可能发生的最糟糕的情况是，如果ARK又像去年那样度过一年。”你绝对会被烧伤的。”</blockquote></p><p> Still, ARK doubters already&nbsp;are borrowing shares and selling the short&nbsp;themselves. According to data from FactSet, short interest in the ARK Innovation ETF has increased to nearly 10% of its total floating shares, up from 2% at the beginning of the year.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，方舟的怀疑者已经在借入股票并卖空自己。FactSet的数据显示，ARK Innovation ETF的空头兴趣已增至其总流通股的近10%，高于年初的2%。</blockquote></p><p> Many noninstitutional investors don’t have the capability or channel to short stocks or ETFs themselves, and Tuttle Capital Management sees an opportunity here. “Clearly there is an increased appetite to short unprofitable tech,” Matt Tuttle, the firm’s chief executive officer, told Barron’s in an email, “The goal there was to create tools for investors to express a view.”</p><p><blockquote>许多非机构投资者本身没有能力或渠道做空股票或ETF，塔特尔资本管理公司在这里看到了机会。该公司首席执行官马特·塔特尔(Matt Tuttle)在一封电子邮件中告诉《巴伦周刊》：“显然，做空无利可图的科技公司的兴趣有所增加，其目标是为投资者创造表达观点的工具。”</blockquote></p><p> The newly filed Short ARKK ETF plans to charge a 0.75% operating expense, mirroring the expense ratio of the ARK Innovation ETF. Compared to a simple inverse fund tracking a stock index or commodity, the fund might have a harder time returning the exact inverse of ARK Innovation’s performance, said Johnson<b>:</b>“You are betting against a moving target, and in theory, there’s going to be some degree of slippage when you try to do that.”</p><p><blockquote>新提交的空头ARKK ETF计划收取0.75%的运营费用，反映了ARK Innovation ETF的费用比率。约翰逊表示，与跟踪股票指数或大宗商品的简单反向基金相比，该基金可能更难实现与ARK Innovation业绩完全相反的回报<b>：</b>“你押注的是一个移动的目标，从理论上讲，当你尝试这样做时，会出现一定程度的下滑。”</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, the Short ARKK ETF is still in filing. There is a chance that the SEC might not approve it, given that the fund is the first of its kind.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，做空ARKK ETF仍在备案中。鉴于该基金是同类基金中的第一只，美国证券交易委员会可能不会批准它。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>You Can Short Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation Fund. But Is It a Good Idea?<blockquote>你可以做空凯西·伍德的方舟创新基金。但这是个好主意吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nYou Can Short Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation Fund. But Is It a Good Idea?<blockquote>你可以做空凯西·伍德的方舟创新基金。但这是个好主意吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-05 11:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>For those bearish on ARK Invest’s innovation-driven stock picks, there might soon be a new ETF that allows investors to bet against them.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些看跌ARK Invest创新驱动型股票的人来说，可能很快就会有一只新的ETF允许投资者做空它们。</blockquote></p><p> Tuttle Capital Management, a small fund company with 10 ETFs and $228 million under management, has filed to launch the Short ARKK ETF under the ticker SARK. The fund would seek to track the inverse performance of the $23 billion ARK Innovation ETF (ticker: ARKK) through swaps contracts, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.</p><p><blockquote>Tuttle Capital Management是一家小型基金公司，管理着10只ETF和2.28亿美元，已申请推出空头ARKK ETF，股票代码为SARK。根据向美国证券交易委员会提交的文件，该基金将寻求通过掉期合约跟踪价值230亿美元的ARK Innovation ETF（股票代码：ARKK）的反向表现。</blockquote></p><p> Inverse ETFs have been around a long time, but most bet against a broad-market index or particular sector, rather than an actively managed portfolio like ARK’s. “As far as I’m aware, it’s unprecedented,” said Ben Johnson, director of global exchange-traded fund research for Morningstar.</p><p><blockquote>反向ETF已经存在很长时间了，但大多数都做空大盘指数或特定行业，而不是像ARK这样的主动管理投资组合。“据我所知，这是前所未有的，”晨星公司全球交易所交易基金研究总监本·约翰逊表示。</blockquote></p><p> It’s not the first time that Wall Street broke norms in order to tap on investors’ surging interest—whether bullish or bearish—in ARK and its stock-picking CEO, Cathie Wood.</p><p><blockquote>这并不是华尔街第一次打破规范，以利用投资者对ARK及其选股首席执行官凯西·伍德(Cathie Wood)日益高涨的兴趣（无论是看涨还是看跌）。</blockquote></p><p> Earlier this year, big investment banks started issuing&nbsp;structured notes tied to the firm’s actively managed ETFs. These debt securities involve complicated derivatives trades that promise some participation in the underlying assets’ gains but a certain level of downside protection<b>.</b>They are traditionally tied to single stocks or indexes like the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，大型投资银行开始发行与该公司主动管理型ETF挂钩的结构性票据。这些债务证券涉及复杂的衍生品交易，承诺在一定程度上参与基础资产的收益，但提供一定程度的下行保护<b>.</b>传统上，它们与单一股票或标准普尔500指数等指数挂钩。</blockquote></p><p> The filing for the Short ARKK ETF came as ARK funds are struggling to repeat their spectacular performance of last year. The ARK Innovation ETF, for example, gained roughly 150% in 2020 as one of the top-performing ETFs of the year. Year to date, it’s down 4.4%,after plunging 24% from the February peak.</p><p><blockquote>申请做空ARKK ETF之际，ARK基金正在努力重复去年的出色表现。例如，ARK Innovation ETF在2020年上涨了约150%，成为当年表现最好的ETF之一。今年迄今为止，该指数已下跌4.4%，较2月份的峰值暴跌24%。</blockquote></p><p> Some investors think Wood’s heavy bets on&nbsp;highflying tech stockslike&nbsp;Tesla(TSLA) and&nbsp;Square(SQ) have made the fund’s portfolio&nbsp;too expensive and risky, which has weighed on its performance this year as investors favored the cheaper cyclical stocks that could benefit from the postpandemic recovery.</p><p><blockquote>一些投资者认为，伍德对特斯拉(TSLA)和Square(SQ)等飞速发展的科技股的大举押注使得该基金的投资组合过于昂贵且风险太大，这影响了其今年的业绩，因为投资者青睐可能受益于疫情后复苏的廉价周期性股票。</blockquote></p><p> ARK did not respond to a request for comment.</p><p><blockquote>方舟没有回应置评请求。</blockquote></p><p> Even for investors skeptical about Wood’s penchant for innovation stocks, though, buying an anti-ARK ETF might not be the smartest thing to do. Anyone that doesn’t like the ARK funds can simply not buy them. Shorting them could bring more risks than the potential rewards.</p><p><blockquote>不过，即使对于对伍德对创新股的偏好持怀疑态度的投资者来说，购买反方舟ETF可能也不是最明智的做法。任何不喜欢方舟基金的人都不能购买。做空它们可能会带来比潜在回报更多的风险。</blockquote></p><p> “The odds you’re going to profit from those bearish beliefs by short selling these funds are pretty small,” said Morningstar’s Johnson, “The upside is limited, the best you can get is a 100% return on your investment, and that’s assuming ARK will run its portfolios to the ground, which isn’t going to happen. On the other hand, the worst that could happen is that if ARK has another year like they did last year. You’ll get absolutely torched.”</p><p><blockquote>晨星公司的约翰逊表示：“你通过卖空这些基金从这些看跌信念中获利的可能性非常小，上涨空间有限，你能获得的最好结果是100%的投资回报，这是假设ARK将把其投资组合搞得一团糟，这是不会发生的。另一方面，可能发生的最糟糕的情况是，如果ARK又像去年那样度过一年。”你绝对会被烧伤的。”</blockquote></p><p> Still, ARK doubters already&nbsp;are borrowing shares and selling the short&nbsp;themselves. According to data from FactSet, short interest in the ARK Innovation ETF has increased to nearly 10% of its total floating shares, up from 2% at the beginning of the year.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，方舟的怀疑者已经在借入股票并卖空自己。FactSet的数据显示，ARK Innovation ETF的空头兴趣已增至其总流通股的近10%，高于年初的2%。</blockquote></p><p> Many noninstitutional investors don’t have the capability or channel to short stocks or ETFs themselves, and Tuttle Capital Management sees an opportunity here. “Clearly there is an increased appetite to short unprofitable tech,” Matt Tuttle, the firm’s chief executive officer, told Barron’s in an email, “The goal there was to create tools for investors to express a view.”</p><p><blockquote>许多非机构投资者本身没有能力或渠道做空股票或ETF，塔特尔资本管理公司在这里看到了机会。该公司首席执行官马特·塔特尔(Matt Tuttle)在一封电子邮件中告诉《巴伦周刊》：“显然，做空无利可图的科技公司的兴趣有所增加，其目标是为投资者创造表达观点的工具。”</blockquote></p><p> The newly filed Short ARKK ETF plans to charge a 0.75% operating expense, mirroring the expense ratio of the ARK Innovation ETF. Compared to a simple inverse fund tracking a stock index or commodity, the fund might have a harder time returning the exact inverse of ARK Innovation’s performance, said Johnson<b>:</b>“You are betting against a moving target, and in theory, there’s going to be some degree of slippage when you try to do that.”</p><p><blockquote>新提交的空头ARKK ETF计划收取0.75%的运营费用，反映了ARK Innovation ETF的费用比率。约翰逊表示，与跟踪股票指数或大宗商品的简单反向基金相比，该基金可能更难实现与ARK Innovation业绩完全相反的回报<b>：</b>“你押注的是一个移动的目标，从理论上讲，当你尝试这样做时，会出现一定程度的下滑。”</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, the Short ARKK ETF is still in filing. There is a chance that the SEC might not approve it, given that the fund is the first of its kind.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，做空ARKK ETF仍在备案中。鉴于该基金是同类基金中的第一只，美国证券交易委员会可能不会批准它。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/short-ark-innovation-fund-etf-51628035888?mod=hp_DAY_7\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/short-ark-innovation-fund-etf-51628035888?mod=hp_DAY_7","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187380753","content_text":"For those bearish on ARK Invest’s innovation-driven stock picks, there might soon be a new ETF that allows investors to bet against them.\nTuttle Capital Management, a small fund company with 10 ETFs and $228 million under management, has filed to launch the Short ARKK ETF under the ticker SARK. The fund would seek to track the inverse performance of the $23 billion ARK Innovation ETF (ticker: ARKK) through swaps contracts, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.\nInverse ETFs have been around a long time, but most bet against a broad-market index or particular sector, rather than an actively managed portfolio like ARK’s. “As far as I’m aware, it’s unprecedented,” said Ben Johnson, director of global exchange-traded fund research for Morningstar.\nIt’s not the first time that Wall Street broke norms in order to tap on investors’ surging interest—whether bullish or bearish—in ARK and its stock-picking CEO, Cathie Wood.\nEarlier this year, big investment banks started issuing structured notes tied to the firm’s actively managed ETFs. These debt securities involve complicated derivatives trades that promise some participation in the underlying assets’ gains but a certain level of downside protection.They are traditionally tied to single stocks or indexes like the S&P 500.\nThe filing for the Short ARKK ETF came as ARK funds are struggling to repeat their spectacular performance of last year. The ARK Innovation ETF, for example, gained roughly 150% in 2020 as one of the top-performing ETFs of the year. Year to date, it’s down 4.4%,after plunging 24% from the February peak.\nSome investors think Wood’s heavy bets on highflying tech stockslike Tesla(TSLA) and Square(SQ) have made the fund’s portfolio too expensive and risky, which has weighed on its performance this year as investors favored the cheaper cyclical stocks that could benefit from the postpandemic recovery.\nARK did not respond to a request for comment.\nEven for investors skeptical about Wood’s penchant for innovation stocks, though, buying an anti-ARK ETF might not be the smartest thing to do. Anyone that doesn’t like the ARK funds can simply not buy them. Shorting them could bring more risks than the potential rewards.\n“The odds you’re going to profit from those bearish beliefs by short selling these funds are pretty small,” said Morningstar’s Johnson, “The upside is limited, the best you can get is a 100% return on your investment, and that’s assuming ARK will run its portfolios to the ground, which isn’t going to happen. On the other hand, the worst that could happen is that if ARK has another year like they did last year. You’ll get absolutely torched.”\nStill, ARK doubters already are borrowing shares and selling the short themselves. According to data from FactSet, short interest in the ARK Innovation ETF has increased to nearly 10% of its total floating shares, up from 2% at the beginning of the year.\nMany noninstitutional investors don’t have the capability or channel to short stocks or ETFs themselves, and Tuttle Capital Management sees an opportunity here. “Clearly there is an increased appetite to short unprofitable tech,” Matt Tuttle, the firm’s chief executive officer, told Barron’s in an email, “The goal there was to create tools for investors to express a view.”\nThe newly filed Short ARKK ETF plans to charge a 0.75% operating expense, mirroring the expense ratio of the ARK Innovation ETF. Compared to a simple inverse fund tracking a stock index or commodity, the fund might have a harder time returning the exact inverse of ARK Innovation’s performance, said Johnson:“You are betting against a moving target, and in theory, there’s going to be some degree of slippage when you try to do that.”\nTo be sure, the Short ARKK ETF is still in filing. There is a chance that the SEC might not approve it, given that the fund is the first of its kind.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ARKK":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"SQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":451,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":864209351,"gmtCreate":1633101363666,"gmtModify":1633101413514,"author":{"id":"3583806200035507","authorId":"3583806200035507","name":"HuiBing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583806200035507","authorIdStr":"3583806200035507"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/864209351","repostId":"2172963836","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3474,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":862554803,"gmtCreate":1632894451863,"gmtModify":1632894452049,"author":{"id":"3583806200035507","authorId":"3583806200035507","name":"HuiBing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583806200035507","authorIdStr":"3583806200035507"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862554803","repostId":"1198528044","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198528044","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632882697,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198528044?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-29 10:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Technically Speaking: Is The Market \"Melting-Up?\"<blockquote>从技术上讲：市场正在“融化”吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198528044","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nGiven the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protect","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.</li>  <li>As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.</li>  <li>While it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent “this time is different”.</li> </ul> Is the<i>“market melting-up?”</i>Such was the question I received from my colleague at<i>Cut The Crap Investing.</i>It is an excellent question given the relentless increase in what investors believe is a<i>“no risk”</i>market.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>鉴于美联储正在进行的资产负债表操作，投资者完全相信他们有能力免受经济衰退的影响。</li><li>与往常一样，投资大众相信未来的收益将证明在融化期间价格上涨是合理的。从来都不是那样的。</li><li>虽然在融化持续期间利用它是至关重要的，但不要过于自满“这次不同了”。</li></ul>是<i>“市场融化？”</i>这是我从我的同事那里收到的问题<i>少废话投资。</i>考虑到投资者认为的持续增长，这是一个很好的问题<i>“没有风险”</i>市场。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, we need a definition of precisely what constitutes a melt-up.</p><p><blockquote>当然，我们需要一个准确定义什么是融化。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“A melt-up is a sustained and often unexpected improvement in the investment performance of an asset or asset class, driven partly</i>  <i><b>by a stampede of investors who don’t want to miss out on its rise,</b></i>  <i>rather than by fundamental improvements in the economy.“</i>–  <i>Investopedia</i>  Currently, there is sufficient evidence to support the idea of an exuberant market.<b><i>As noted previously:</i></b></p><p><blockquote><i>他说：“熔断是指一项资产或资产类别的投资表现持续且往往出乎意料的改善，部分原因是</i><i><b>不想错过其上涨机会的投资者蜂拥而至，</b></i><i>而不是经济的根本改善。”</i>–<i>投资百科</i>目前，有足够的证据支持市场繁荣的观点。<b><i>如前所述：</i></b></blockquote></p><p>   <i>“Near peaks of market cycles, investors become swept up by the underlying exuberance. That exuberance breeds the “rationalization” that “this time is different.” So how do you know the market is exuberant currently? Via Sentiment Trader:”</i>    <i>‘This type of market activity is an indication that markets have returned their ‘enthusiasm’ stage. Such is characterized by:’</i>  <ul>  <li><b><i>High optimism</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Easy credit (too easy, with loose terms)</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>A rush of initial and secondary offerings</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Risky stocks outperforming</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Stretched valuations</i></b></li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff8de3a84084162ca86b415584bbf793\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><i>“在市场周期接近峰值时，投资者会被潜在的繁荣所席卷。这种繁荣滋生了“合理化”，即“这次不同了”。那么，你如何知道市场目前是繁荣的呢？通过情绪交易者：”</i><i>这种类型的市场活动表明市场已经回到了“热情”阶段。其特征在于：</i><ul><li><b><i>高度乐观</i></b></li><li><b><i>宽松信贷（太宽松，条款宽松）</i></b></li><li><b><i>首次和二次发行热潮</i></b></li><li><b><i>风险股跑赢大盘</i></b></li><li><b><i>估值过高</i></b></li></ul></blockquote></p><p> However, while one would expect individuals to exhibit caution in such an environment, the opposite is true. Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.</p><p><blockquote>然而，虽然人们会期望个人在这样的环境中表现出谨慎，但事实恰恰相反。鉴于美联储正在进行的资产负债表操作，投资者完全相信他们有能力免受经济衰退的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Visualization Of A Market Melting-Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场融化的可视化</b></blockquote></p><p> It is often easier to visualize something rather than explain it.<b>Since 1900, only two previous market periods qualify as a melt-up: 1920-1929 and 1995-2000.</b>The chart below shows both periods in terms of price.</p><p><blockquote>想象某事通常比解释它更容易。<b>自1900年以来，只有两个市场时期符合熔化的条件：1920-1929年和1995-2000年。</b>下图显示了这两个时期的价格。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a218c7efe2ebd874d05c9ff7dd564436\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f193c9c32d55747bf7ff511c2f9fd53\" tg-width=\"793\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> However, the melt-up is also visually represented by the incredibly sharp rise in valuations. Such is essential because earnings are not rising at a fast enough clip to support higher prices.<b>As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，估值的大幅上涨也直观地体现了这种融化。这一点至关重要，因为盈利增长速度不足以支撑价格上涨。<b>与往常一样，投资大众相信未来的收益将证明在融化期间价格上涨是合理的。从来都不是那样的。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c69e418d5a19d6fd03b305ab111e3be3\" tg-width=\"794\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af03d3bbd071b8edfdf3a19e2c7b0bcd\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We can compare those two previous periods with the current advance from the March 2020 lows. Again, we see a very similar sharp advance in price combined with a surge in valuations. As expected, investors are currently hoping that future earnings will rise sharply enough to justify current prices. However, the justification for paying high prices is the Federal Reserve’s ongoing balance sheet expansion.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以将前两个时期与当前从2020年3月低点的上涨进行比较。我们再次看到非常相似的价格大幅上涨和估值飙升。正如预期的那样，投资者目前希望未来收益将大幅上涨，足以证明当前价格的合理性。然而，支付高价的理由是美联储持续的资产负债表扩张。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3562aea27b24ad4921d0f5cd497e072\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"444\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The following chart looks that the price advance and valuation measures a little differently. It shows the current deviation from the long-term exponential growth trend. Not surprisingly, during a market<i>“melt-up,”</i>there is a rapid deviation from the growth trend matching the acceleration in valuations.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示，价格上涨和估值指标略有不同。它显示了当前与长期指数增长趋势的背离。毫不奇怪，在市场期间<i>“融化。”</i>与估值加速相匹配的增长趋势出现了快速背离。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1419cf4b2afdcdc0f61e0cad862f498d\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The problem with market<i>“melt-ups”</i>is not the melt-up itself but what always follows.</p><p><blockquote>市场的问题<i>“融化”</i>不是融化本身，而是随之而来的一切。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Melting-Up Leads To Melting-Down</b></p><p><blockquote><b>熔化导致熔化</b></blockquote></p><p> A market melting-up is exciting while it lasts. During melt-ups, investors begin to rationalize why<i>“this time is different.”</i>They start taking on excess leverage to try and capitalize on the rapid advance in prices, and fundamentals take a back seat to price momentum.</p><p><blockquote>市场融化持续下去是令人兴奋的。在熔断期间，投资者开始合理化原因<i>“这次不一样。”</i>他们开始过度杠杆，试图利用价格的快速上涨，基本面让位于价格动能。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Market melt-ups are all about<i>“psychology.”</i><b>Historically, whatever has been the catalyst to spark the disregard of risk is readily witnessed in the corresponding surge in price and valuations.</b>The chart below shows the long-term deviations in relative strength, deviations, and valuations. The previous<i>‘melt-up”</i>periods should be easy to spot when compared with the advance currently.</p><p><blockquote>市场融化都是关于<i>“心理学。”</i><b>从历史上看，无论引发忽视风险的催化剂是什么，都很容易在价格和估值的相应飙升中看到。</b>下图显示了相对强度、偏差和估值的长期偏差。上一篇<i>“融化”</i>与目前的进展相比，时期应该很容易发现。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc04cb25c0199dd17475a551a5dd7ec1\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Given that current extensions match only a few rare periods in history, a couple of points should be readily apparent.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于目前的延期仅与历史上少数罕见的时期相匹配，有几点应该是显而易见的。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><b><i>Melt-ups can longer than logic would predict.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>The prevailing psychology is always “this time is different.”</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Valuations are dismissed in exchange for measures of momentum and forward expectations.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Investors take on excess leverage and risk in order to participate in a seemingly “can’t lose” market.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Lastly, and inevitably, “melt-ups” end and always in the worst possible outcomes.</i></b></li> </ol> It is essential to recognize the markets are in a<i>“melt-up,</i>” and the duration of that event is unknowable. Therefore, investors need a strategy to participate in the advance and mitigate the damage from the eventual<i>“melting-down.”</i></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><b><i>融化的时间可能比逻辑预测的要长。</i></b></li><li><b><i>普遍的心理总是“这次不一样了”。</i></b></li><li><b><i>估值被驳回，以换取动量和前瞻性预期的衡量标准。</i></b></li><li><b><i>投资者为了参与一个看似“输不起”的市场，承担了过多的杠杆和风险。</i></b></li><li><b><i>最后，不可避免的是，“融化”以最糟糕的结果告终。</i></b></li></ol>必须认识到市场正处于<i>“融化，</i>“而且该事件的持续时间是未知的。因此，投资者需要一种策略来参与提前并减轻最终的损失<i>“熔化。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Surviving The Melt-Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在融化中幸存下来</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>As noted, none of this means the next</b><b><i>“bear market”</i></b><b>is lurking.</b>Given that a market melting-up is a function of psychology, they can last longer and go further than logic would predict. What is required to “<i>end”</i>a melt-up is an unanticipated exogenous event that changes psychology from bullish to bearish. Such is when the stampede for the exits occurs, and prices decline very quickly.</p><p><blockquote><b>如上所述，这些都不意味着下一个</b><b><i>“熊市”</i></b><b>正在潜伏。</b>鉴于市场融化是心理作用，它们可以持续更长时间，走得比逻辑预测的更远。需要什么“<i>结束“</i>融化是一种意想不到的外生事件，它将心理从看涨转变为看跌。这就是人们蜂拥退出的时候，价格会迅速下跌。</blockquote></p><p> As such, investors need a set of guidelines to participate in the market advance. But, of course, the hard part is keeping those gains when corrections inevitably occur.</p><p><blockquote>因此，投资者需要一套指导方针来参与市场上涨。但是，当然，困难的部分是在不可避免地发生调整时保持这些收益。</blockquote></p><p> As portfolio managers for our clients, such is precisely the approach we must take. Accordingly, I have provided a general overview of the process that we employ.</p><p><blockquote>作为客户的投资组合经理，这正是我们必须采取的方法。因此，我提供了我们采用的流程的总体概述。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><i><b>Tighten up stop-loss levels</b></i><i>to current support levels for each position.(Provides identifiable exit points when the market reverses.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Hedge portfolios</b></i><i>against major market declines.(Non-correlated assets, short-market positions, index put options)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Take profits</b></i><i>in positions that have been big winners(Rebalancing overbought or extended positions to capture gains but continue to participate in the advance.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Sell laggards</b></i><i>and losers</i>.<i>(If something isn’t working in a market melt-up, it most likely won’t work during a broad decline. Better to eliminate the risk early.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Raise cash</b></i><i>and rebalance portfolios to target weightings.(Rebalancing risk on a regular basis keeps hidden risks somewhat mitigated.)</i></li> </ol> <b>Notice, nothing in there says,</b><b><i>“sell everything and go to cash.”</i></b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><i><b>收紧止损水平</b></i><i>每个头寸的当前支撑位。（当市场反转时提供可识别的退出点。）</i></li><li><i><b>对冲投资组合</b></i><i>（非相关资产、空头市场头寸、指数看跌期权）</i></li><li><i><b>获利了结</b></i><i>在已经成为大赢家的头寸中（重新平衡超买或扩展头寸以获取收益，但继续参与上涨。）</i></li><li><i><b>出售落后者</b></i><i>和失败者</i>.<i>（如果某些东西在市场融化时不起作用，那么在广泛下跌时很可能也不会起作用。最好尽早消除风险。）</i></li><li><i><b>筹集现金</b></i><i>并重新平衡投资组合以达到目标权重。（定期重新平衡风险可以在一定程度上减轻隐藏的风险。）</i></li></ol><b>注意，里面没有任何东西说，</b><b><i>“卖掉所有东西，去兑现。”</i></b></blockquote></p><p> There will be a time to raise significant levels of cash. A good portfolio management strategy will automatically ensure that<i>“stop-loss”</i>levels get triggered, exposure decreases, and cash levels rise when the selling begins.</p><p><blockquote>将会有一段时间来筹集大量现金。一个好的投资组合管理策略将自动确保<i>“止损”</i>当出售开始时，水平被触发，风险减少，现金水平上升。</blockquote></p><p> While it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent<i>“this time is different.”</i></p><p><blockquote>虽然有必要在融化持续期间利用它，但不要过于自满<i>“这次不一样。”</i></blockquote></p><p> It likely isn’t.</p><p><blockquote>很可能不是。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Technically Speaking: Is The Market \"Melting-Up?\"<blockquote>从技术上讲：市场正在“融化”吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTechnically Speaking: Is The Market \"Melting-Up?\"<blockquote>从技术上讲：市场正在“融化”吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-29 10:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.</li>  <li>As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.</li>  <li>While it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent “this time is different”.</li> </ul> Is the<i>“market melting-up?”</i>Such was the question I received from my colleague at<i>Cut The Crap Investing.</i>It is an excellent question given the relentless increase in what investors believe is a<i>“no risk”</i>market.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>鉴于美联储正在进行的资产负债表操作，投资者完全相信他们有能力免受经济衰退的影响。</li><li>与往常一样，投资大众相信未来的收益将证明在融化期间价格上涨是合理的。从来都不是那样的。</li><li>虽然在融化持续期间利用它是至关重要的，但不要过于自满“这次不同了”。</li></ul>是<i>“市场融化？”</i>这是我从我的同事那里收到的问题<i>少废话投资。</i>考虑到投资者认为的持续增长，这是一个很好的问题<i>“没有风险”</i>市场。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, we need a definition of precisely what constitutes a melt-up.</p><p><blockquote>当然，我们需要一个准确定义什么是融化。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“A melt-up is a sustained and often unexpected improvement in the investment performance of an asset or asset class, driven partly</i>  <i><b>by a stampede of investors who don’t want to miss out on its rise,</b></i>  <i>rather than by fundamental improvements in the economy.“</i>–  <i>Investopedia</i>  Currently, there is sufficient evidence to support the idea of an exuberant market.<b><i>As noted previously:</i></b></p><p><blockquote><i>他说：“熔断是指一项资产或资产类别的投资表现持续且往往出乎意料的改善，部分原因是</i><i><b>不想错过其上涨机会的投资者蜂拥而至，</b></i><i>而不是经济的根本改善。”</i>–<i>投资百科</i>目前，有足够的证据支持市场繁荣的观点。<b><i>如前所述：</i></b></blockquote></p><p>   <i>“Near peaks of market cycles, investors become swept up by the underlying exuberance. That exuberance breeds the “rationalization” that “this time is different.” So how do you know the market is exuberant currently? Via Sentiment Trader:”</i>    <i>‘This type of market activity is an indication that markets have returned their ‘enthusiasm’ stage. Such is characterized by:’</i>  <ul>  <li><b><i>High optimism</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Easy credit (too easy, with loose terms)</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>A rush of initial and secondary offerings</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Risky stocks outperforming</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Stretched valuations</i></b></li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff8de3a84084162ca86b415584bbf793\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><i>“在市场周期接近峰值时，投资者会被潜在的繁荣所席卷。这种繁荣滋生了“合理化”，即“这次不同了”。那么，你如何知道市场目前是繁荣的呢？通过情绪交易者：”</i><i>这种类型的市场活动表明市场已经回到了“热情”阶段。其特征在于：</i><ul><li><b><i>高度乐观</i></b></li><li><b><i>宽松信贷（太宽松，条款宽松）</i></b></li><li><b><i>首次和二次发行热潮</i></b></li><li><b><i>风险股跑赢大盘</i></b></li><li><b><i>估值过高</i></b></li></ul></blockquote></p><p> However, while one would expect individuals to exhibit caution in such an environment, the opposite is true. Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.</p><p><blockquote>然而，虽然人们会期望个人在这样的环境中表现出谨慎，但事实恰恰相反。鉴于美联储正在进行的资产负债表操作，投资者完全相信他们有能力免受经济衰退的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Visualization Of A Market Melting-Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场融化的可视化</b></blockquote></p><p> It is often easier to visualize something rather than explain it.<b>Since 1900, only two previous market periods qualify as a melt-up: 1920-1929 and 1995-2000.</b>The chart below shows both periods in terms of price.</p><p><blockquote>想象某事通常比解释它更容易。<b>自1900年以来，只有两个市场时期符合熔化的条件：1920-1929年和1995-2000年。</b>下图显示了这两个时期的价格。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a218c7efe2ebd874d05c9ff7dd564436\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f193c9c32d55747bf7ff511c2f9fd53\" tg-width=\"793\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> However, the melt-up is also visually represented by the incredibly sharp rise in valuations. Such is essential because earnings are not rising at a fast enough clip to support higher prices.<b>As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，估值的大幅上涨也直观地体现了这种融化。这一点至关重要，因为盈利增长速度不足以支撑价格上涨。<b>与往常一样，投资大众相信未来的收益将证明在融化期间价格上涨是合理的。从来都不是那样的。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c69e418d5a19d6fd03b305ab111e3be3\" tg-width=\"794\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af03d3bbd071b8edfdf3a19e2c7b0bcd\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We can compare those two previous periods with the current advance from the March 2020 lows. Again, we see a very similar sharp advance in price combined with a surge in valuations. As expected, investors are currently hoping that future earnings will rise sharply enough to justify current prices. However, the justification for paying high prices is the Federal Reserve’s ongoing balance sheet expansion.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以将前两个时期与当前从2020年3月低点的上涨进行比较。我们再次看到非常相似的价格大幅上涨和估值飙升。正如预期的那样，投资者目前希望未来收益将大幅上涨，足以证明当前价格的合理性。然而，支付高价的理由是美联储持续的资产负债表扩张。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3562aea27b24ad4921d0f5cd497e072\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"444\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The following chart looks that the price advance and valuation measures a little differently. It shows the current deviation from the long-term exponential growth trend. Not surprisingly, during a market<i>“melt-up,”</i>there is a rapid deviation from the growth trend matching the acceleration in valuations.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示，价格上涨和估值指标略有不同。它显示了当前与长期指数增长趋势的背离。毫不奇怪，在市场期间<i>“融化。”</i>与估值加速相匹配的增长趋势出现了快速背离。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1419cf4b2afdcdc0f61e0cad862f498d\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The problem with market<i>“melt-ups”</i>is not the melt-up itself but what always follows.</p><p><blockquote>市场的问题<i>“融化”</i>不是融化本身，而是随之而来的一切。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Melting-Up Leads To Melting-Down</b></p><p><blockquote><b>熔化导致熔化</b></blockquote></p><p> A market melting-up is exciting while it lasts. During melt-ups, investors begin to rationalize why<i>“this time is different.”</i>They start taking on excess leverage to try and capitalize on the rapid advance in prices, and fundamentals take a back seat to price momentum.</p><p><blockquote>市场融化持续下去是令人兴奋的。在熔断期间，投资者开始合理化原因<i>“这次不一样。”</i>他们开始过度杠杆，试图利用价格的快速上涨，基本面让位于价格动能。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Market melt-ups are all about<i>“psychology.”</i><b>Historically, whatever has been the catalyst to spark the disregard of risk is readily witnessed in the corresponding surge in price and valuations.</b>The chart below shows the long-term deviations in relative strength, deviations, and valuations. The previous<i>‘melt-up”</i>periods should be easy to spot when compared with the advance currently.</p><p><blockquote>市场融化都是关于<i>“心理学。”</i><b>从历史上看，无论引发忽视风险的催化剂是什么，都很容易在价格和估值的相应飙升中看到。</b>下图显示了相对强度、偏差和估值的长期偏差。上一篇<i>“融化”</i>与目前的进展相比，时期应该很容易发现。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc04cb25c0199dd17475a551a5dd7ec1\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Given that current extensions match only a few rare periods in history, a couple of points should be readily apparent.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于目前的延期仅与历史上少数罕见的时期相匹配，有几点应该是显而易见的。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><b><i>Melt-ups can longer than logic would predict.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>The prevailing psychology is always “this time is different.”</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Valuations are dismissed in exchange for measures of momentum and forward expectations.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Investors take on excess leverage and risk in order to participate in a seemingly “can’t lose” market.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Lastly, and inevitably, “melt-ups” end and always in the worst possible outcomes.</i></b></li> </ol> It is essential to recognize the markets are in a<i>“melt-up,</i>” and the duration of that event is unknowable. Therefore, investors need a strategy to participate in the advance and mitigate the damage from the eventual<i>“melting-down.”</i></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><b><i>融化的时间可能比逻辑预测的要长。</i></b></li><li><b><i>普遍的心理总是“这次不一样了”。</i></b></li><li><b><i>估值被驳回，以换取动量和前瞻性预期的衡量标准。</i></b></li><li><b><i>投资者为了参与一个看似“输不起”的市场，承担了过多的杠杆和风险。</i></b></li><li><b><i>最后，不可避免的是，“融化”以最糟糕的结果告终。</i></b></li></ol>必须认识到市场正处于<i>“融化，</i>“而且该事件的持续时间是未知的。因此，投资者需要一种策略来参与提前并减轻最终的损失<i>“熔化。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Surviving The Melt-Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在融化中幸存下来</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>As noted, none of this means the next</b><b><i>“bear market”</i></b><b>is lurking.</b>Given that a market melting-up is a function of psychology, they can last longer and go further than logic would predict. What is required to “<i>end”</i>a melt-up is an unanticipated exogenous event that changes psychology from bullish to bearish. Such is when the stampede for the exits occurs, and prices decline very quickly.</p><p><blockquote><b>如上所述，这些都不意味着下一个</b><b><i>“熊市”</i></b><b>正在潜伏。</b>鉴于市场融化是心理作用，它们可以持续更长时间，走得比逻辑预测的更远。需要什么“<i>结束“</i>融化是一种意想不到的外生事件，它将心理从看涨转变为看跌。这就是人们蜂拥退出的时候，价格会迅速下跌。</blockquote></p><p> As such, investors need a set of guidelines to participate in the market advance. But, of course, the hard part is keeping those gains when corrections inevitably occur.</p><p><blockquote>因此，投资者需要一套指导方针来参与市场上涨。但是，当然，困难的部分是在不可避免地发生调整时保持这些收益。</blockquote></p><p> As portfolio managers for our clients, such is precisely the approach we must take. Accordingly, I have provided a general overview of the process that we employ.</p><p><blockquote>作为客户的投资组合经理，这正是我们必须采取的方法。因此，我提供了我们采用的流程的总体概述。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><i><b>Tighten up stop-loss levels</b></i><i>to current support levels for each position.(Provides identifiable exit points when the market reverses.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Hedge portfolios</b></i><i>against major market declines.(Non-correlated assets, short-market positions, index put options)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Take profits</b></i><i>in positions that have been big winners(Rebalancing overbought or extended positions to capture gains but continue to participate in the advance.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Sell laggards</b></i><i>and losers</i>.<i>(If something isn’t working in a market melt-up, it most likely won’t work during a broad decline. Better to eliminate the risk early.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Raise cash</b></i><i>and rebalance portfolios to target weightings.(Rebalancing risk on a regular basis keeps hidden risks somewhat mitigated.)</i></li> </ol> <b>Notice, nothing in there says,</b><b><i>“sell everything and go to cash.”</i></b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><i><b>收紧止损水平</b></i><i>每个头寸的当前支撑位。（当市场反转时提供可识别的退出点。）</i></li><li><i><b>对冲投资组合</b></i><i>（非相关资产、空头市场头寸、指数看跌期权）</i></li><li><i><b>获利了结</b></i><i>在已经成为大赢家的头寸中（重新平衡超买或扩展头寸以获取收益，但继续参与上涨。）</i></li><li><i><b>出售落后者</b></i><i>和失败者</i>.<i>（如果某些东西在市场融化时不起作用，那么在广泛下跌时很可能也不会起作用。最好尽早消除风险。）</i></li><li><i><b>筹集现金</b></i><i>并重新平衡投资组合以达到目标权重。（定期重新平衡风险可以在一定程度上减轻隐藏的风险。）</i></li></ol><b>注意，里面没有任何东西说，</b><b><i>“卖掉所有东西，去兑现。”</i></b></blockquote></p><p> There will be a time to raise significant levels of cash. A good portfolio management strategy will automatically ensure that<i>“stop-loss”</i>levels get triggered, exposure decreases, and cash levels rise when the selling begins.</p><p><blockquote>将会有一段时间来筹集大量现金。一个好的投资组合管理策略将自动确保<i>“止损”</i>当出售开始时，水平被触发，风险减少，现金水平上升。</blockquote></p><p> While it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent<i>“this time is different.”</i></p><p><blockquote>虽然有必要在融化持续期间利用它，但不要过于自满<i>“这次不一样。”</i></blockquote></p><p> It likely isn’t.</p><p><blockquote>很可能不是。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457469-technically-speaking-is-the-market-melting-up\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457469-technically-speaking-is-the-market-melting-up","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198528044","content_text":"Summary\n\nGiven the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.\nAs is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.\nWhile it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent “this time is different”.\n\nIs the“market melting-up?”Such was the question I received from my colleague atCut The Crap Investing.It is an excellent question given the relentless increase in what investors believe is a“no risk”market.\nOf course, we need a definition of precisely what constitutes a melt-up.\n\n“A melt-up is a sustained and often unexpected improvement in the investment performance of an asset or asset class, driven partly\nby a stampede of investors who don’t want to miss out on its rise,\nrather than by fundamental improvements in the economy.“–\n Investopedia\n\nCurrently, there is sufficient evidence to support the idea of an exuberant market.As noted previously:\n\n“Near peaks of market cycles, investors become swept up by the underlying exuberance. That exuberance breeds the “rationalization” that “this time is different.” So how do you know the market is exuberant currently? Via Sentiment Trader:”\n\n\n‘This type of market activity is an indication that markets have returned their ‘enthusiasm’ stage. Such is characterized by:’\n\n\nHigh optimism\nEasy credit (too easy, with loose terms)\nA rush of initial and secondary offerings\nRisky stocks outperforming\nStretched valuations\n\n\nHowever, while one would expect individuals to exhibit caution in such an environment, the opposite is true. Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.\nA Visualization Of A Market Melting-Up\nIt is often easier to visualize something rather than explain it.Since 1900, only two previous market periods qualify as a melt-up: 1920-1929 and 1995-2000.The chart below shows both periods in terms of price.\n\nHowever, the melt-up is also visually represented by the incredibly sharp rise in valuations. Such is essential because earnings are not rising at a fast enough clip to support higher prices.As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.\n\nWe can compare those two previous periods with the current advance from the March 2020 lows. Again, we see a very similar sharp advance in price combined with a surge in valuations. As expected, investors are currently hoping that future earnings will rise sharply enough to justify current prices. However, the justification for paying high prices is the Federal Reserve’s ongoing balance sheet expansion.\n\nThe following chart looks that the price advance and valuation measures a little differently. It shows the current deviation from the long-term exponential growth trend. Not surprisingly, during a market“melt-up,”there is a rapid deviation from the growth trend matching the acceleration in valuations.\n\nThe problem with market“melt-ups”is not the melt-up itself but what always follows.\nMelting-Up Leads To Melting-Down\nA market melting-up is exciting while it lasts. During melt-ups, investors begin to rationalize why“this time is different.”They start taking on excess leverage to try and capitalize on the rapid advance in prices, and fundamentals take a back seat to price momentum.\nMarket melt-ups are all about“psychology.”Historically, whatever has been the catalyst to spark the disregard of risk is readily witnessed in the corresponding surge in price and valuations.The chart below shows the long-term deviations in relative strength, deviations, and valuations. The previous‘melt-up”periods should be easy to spot when compared with the advance currently.\n\nGiven that current extensions match only a few rare periods in history, a couple of points should be readily apparent.\n\nMelt-ups can longer than logic would predict.\nThe prevailing psychology is always “this time is different.”\nValuations are dismissed in exchange for measures of momentum and forward expectations.\nInvestors take on excess leverage and risk in order to participate in a seemingly “can’t lose” market.\nLastly, and inevitably, “melt-ups” end and always in the worst possible outcomes.\n\nIt is essential to recognize the markets are in a“melt-up,” and the duration of that event is unknowable. Therefore, investors need a strategy to participate in the advance and mitigate the damage from the eventual“melting-down.”\nSurviving The Melt-Up\nAs noted, none of this means the next“bear market”is lurking.Given that a market melting-up is a function of psychology, they can last longer and go further than logic would predict. What is required to “end”a melt-up is an unanticipated exogenous event that changes psychology from bullish to bearish. Such is when the stampede for the exits occurs, and prices decline very quickly.\nAs such, investors need a set of guidelines to participate in the market advance. But, of course, the hard part is keeping those gains when corrections inevitably occur.\nAs portfolio managers for our clients, such is precisely the approach we must take. Accordingly, I have provided a general overview of the process that we employ.\n\nTighten up stop-loss levelsto current support levels for each position.(Provides identifiable exit points when the market reverses.)\nHedge portfoliosagainst major market declines.(Non-correlated assets, short-market positions, index put options)\nTake profitsin positions that have been big winners(Rebalancing overbought or extended positions to capture gains but continue to participate in the advance.)\nSell laggardsand losers.(If something isn’t working in a market melt-up, it most likely won’t work during a broad decline. Better to eliminate the risk early.)\nRaise cashand rebalance portfolios to target weightings.(Rebalancing risk on a regular basis keeps hidden risks somewhat mitigated.)\n\nNotice, nothing in there says,“sell everything and go to cash.”\nThere will be a time to raise significant levels of cash. A good portfolio management strategy will automatically ensure that“stop-loss”levels get triggered, exposure decreases, and cash levels rise when the selling begins.\nWhile it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent“this time is different.”\nIt likely isn’t.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3401,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":815261362,"gmtCreate":1630681184056,"gmtModify":1631891625358,"author":{"id":"3583806200035507","authorId":"3583806200035507","name":"HuiBing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583806200035507","authorIdStr":"3583806200035507"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/815261362","repostId":"2164872049","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2164872049","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1630679468,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2164872049?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-03 22:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Zooming In On Zoom's Solid But Not Good Enough Results<blockquote>放大Zoom可靠但不够好的结果</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2164872049","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Despite logging its first billion-dollar quarter, the stock of Zoom Video Communications (NASDAQ: ZM) fell almost 11% on Monday after the company posted a higher-than-expected earnings forecast for the full year. The revenue guidance exactly met expectations, but sales-growth rates fall to new lows.","content":"<p>Despite logging its first billion-dollar quarter, the stock of&nbsp;<b>Zoom</b>&nbsp;<b>Video Communications</b> (NASDAQ:ZM) fell almost 11% on Monday after the company posted a higher-than-expected earnings forecast for the full year. The revenue guidance exactly met expectations, but sales-growth rates fall to new lows. In simple words, the video platform has continued to grow, but not at the overly optimistic pace that analysts expected.</p><p><blockquote>尽管第一个季度的收入达到了10亿美元，但<b>Zoom</b> <b>视频通信</b>（纳斯达克：ZM）周一下跌近11%，此前该公司公布了高于预期的全年盈利预测。收入指引完全符合预期，但销售增长率跌至新低。简单来说，视频平台一直在持续增长，但没有达到分析师预期的过于乐观的速度。</blockquote></p><p> <h4>Q2 Figures</h4> For the quarter that ended on July 31st, revenue increased by 54% YoY in the quarter &nbsp;and topping $1 billion for the first time as it amounted to $1.02 billion, also exceeding Refinitiv expectations of $991.0 million as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv. Adjusted net income came in 48% higher from the year-ago quarter, amounting to $1.36 per share, also exceeding $1.16 expected by Refinitiv. Free cash flow improved 22% as it improved to $455 million.</p><p><blockquote><h4>第二季度数据</h4>根据Refinitiv的数据，截至7月31日的季度，该季度收入同比增长54%，首次突破10亿美元，达到10.2亿美元，也超过了分析师预期的9.91亿美元。调整后净利润较去年同期增长48%，达到每股1.36美元，也超过Refinitiv预期的1.16美元。自由现金流增长22%，达到4.55亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Gross margin improved from 72.3% in the previous quarter to 74.4%. Gross margin benefited from new data center capacity as well as lower usage during the summer, thanks in part to the school break. The Zoom Phone cloud-based phone service expanded from 1.5 million three months earlier to 2 million seats.</p><p><blockquote>毛利率从上一季度的72.3%提高至74.4%。毛利率受益于新的数据中心容量以及夏季使用率的降低，部分原因是学校放假。Zoom Phone基于云的电话服务从三个月前的150万个扩展到200万个座位。</blockquote></p><p> <h4>Outlook</h4> During the quarter, Zoom announced it will acquire cloud contact-center software provider Five9, along with the availability of Zoom Events for premium online meetings. The video communications company also invested in event software maker Cvent that sought to go public through a SPAC.</p><p><blockquote><h4>世界观</h4>本季度，Zoom宣布将收购云联络中心软件提供商Five9，并为高级在线会议提供Zoom Events。这家视频通信公司还投资了活动软件制造商Cvent，该公司寻求通过SPAC上市。</blockquote></p><p> As for the undergoing quarter, Zoom is guiding to 31% growth. Adjusted earnings per share are expected in the range between $1.07 to $1.08 with $1.015 billion to $1.020 billion in revenue.</p><p><blockquote>至于本季度，Zoom预计增长31%。调整后每股收益预计在1.07美元至1.08美元之间，营收为10.15亿美元至10.20亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> For the full fiscal year, it improved its forecast as coronavirus case counts have increased and many companies delayed plans to reopen offices. Adjusted earnings are expected to be in the range between $4.75 to $4.79 per share with the revenue range being within $4.005 billion and $4.015 billion in revenue. Previous estimates for adjusted earnings were $4.56 to $4.61 and $3.98 billion to $3.99 billion for revenue.</p><p><blockquote>对于整个财年，由于冠状病毒病例数增加以及许多公司推迟了重新开放办事处的计划，该公司提高了预测。预计调整后每股收益在4.75美元至4.79美元之间，营收在40.05亿美元至40.15亿美元之间。此前对调整后收益的预期为4.56美元至4.61美元，营收为39.8亿美元至39.9亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The forecast is ahead of analysts' consensus estimates for both adjusted earnings per share and revenue, being $4.67 and $4.01 billion, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>该预测高于分析师对调整后每股收益和营收的普遍预期，分别为4.67美元和40.1亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The guidance assumes strong growth for the direct and channel businesses, but also a weakness in the online business because of challenges encountered by smaller customers and consumers. Gross margin is expected to expand with students resuming classes.</p><p><blockquote>该指南假设直销和渠道业务将强劲增长，但由于小客户和消费者遇到的挑战，在线业务也将疲软。随着学生复课，毛利率预计将扩大。</blockquote></p><p> <h4>The Verdict</h4> By most standards,&nbsp;Zoom's business metrics look solid with 2,278 customers contributing $100,000 or more to its annual revenue. This is well over double its last year's big-client count. Customers with more than 10 employees vaulted over the half-million mark, up 36% YoY. On a trailing 12-month basis, net dollar expansion rates remained above 130%. But its results just weren't good enough for Wall Street who was not pleased to see the company calling for roughly flat third-quarter revenue compared to the second quarter.</p><p><blockquote><h4>判决</h4>按照大多数标准，Zoom的业务指标看起来很稳健，有2,278名客户为其年收入贡献了10万美元或更多。这是去年大客户数量的两倍多。拥有10名以上员工的客户突破50万大关，同比增长36%。在过去12个月的基础上，美元净增长率保持在130%以上。但对于华尔街来说，其业绩还不够好，华尔街不高兴看到该公司要求第三季度收入与第二季度大致持平。</blockquote></p><p> <i>This article is not a press release and is contributed by a verified independent journalist for IAMNewswire. It should not be construed as investment advice at any time please read the full disclosure. IAM Newswire does not hold any position in the mentioned companies. Press Releases – If you are looking for full Press release distribution contact: press@iamnewswire.com Contributors – IAM Newswire accepts pitches. If you're interested in becoming an IAM journalist contact: contributors@iamnewswire.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>本文不是新闻稿，由IAMNewswire的经过验证的独立记者撰写。在任何时候都不应将其解释为投资建议，请阅读完整的披露。IAM Newswire在上述公司中没有任何职位。新闻稿-如果您正在寻找完整的新闻稿分发，请联系：press@iamnewswire.com贡献者-IAM Newswire接受推介。如果您有兴趣成为IAM记者，请联系：contributors@iamnewswire.com</i></blockquote></p><p> The post Zooming in on Zoom's Solid But Not Good Enough Results appeared first on IAM Newswire.</p><p><blockquote>放大Zoom稳健但不够好的结果的帖子首先出现在IAM新闻专线上。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Zooming In On Zoom's Solid But Not Good Enough Results<blockquote>放大Zoom可靠但不够好的结果</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nZooming In On Zoom's Solid But Not Good Enough Results<blockquote>放大Zoom可靠但不够好的结果</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-03 22:31</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Despite logging its first billion-dollar quarter, the stock of&nbsp;<b>Zoom</b>&nbsp;<b>Video Communications</b> (NASDAQ:ZM) fell almost 11% on Monday after the company posted a higher-than-expected earnings forecast for the full year. The revenue guidance exactly met expectations, but sales-growth rates fall to new lows. In simple words, the video platform has continued to grow, but not at the overly optimistic pace that analysts expected.</p><p><blockquote>尽管第一个季度的收入达到了10亿美元，但<b>Zoom</b> <b>视频通信</b>（纳斯达克：ZM）周一下跌近11%，此前该公司公布了高于预期的全年盈利预测。收入指引完全符合预期，但销售增长率跌至新低。简单来说，视频平台一直在持续增长，但没有达到分析师预期的过于乐观的速度。</blockquote></p><p> <h4>Q2 Figures</h4> For the quarter that ended on July 31st, revenue increased by 54% YoY in the quarter &nbsp;and topping $1 billion for the first time as it amounted to $1.02 billion, also exceeding Refinitiv expectations of $991.0 million as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv. Adjusted net income came in 48% higher from the year-ago quarter, amounting to $1.36 per share, also exceeding $1.16 expected by Refinitiv. Free cash flow improved 22% as it improved to $455 million.</p><p><blockquote><h4>第二季度数据</h4>根据Refinitiv的数据，截至7月31日的季度，该季度收入同比增长54%，首次突破10亿美元，达到10.2亿美元，也超过了分析师预期的9.91亿美元。调整后净利润较去年同期增长48%，达到每股1.36美元，也超过Refinitiv预期的1.16美元。自由现金流增长22%，达到4.55亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Gross margin improved from 72.3% in the previous quarter to 74.4%. Gross margin benefited from new data center capacity as well as lower usage during the summer, thanks in part to the school break. The Zoom Phone cloud-based phone service expanded from 1.5 million three months earlier to 2 million seats.</p><p><blockquote>毛利率从上一季度的72.3%提高至74.4%。毛利率受益于新的数据中心容量以及夏季使用率的降低，部分原因是学校放假。Zoom Phone基于云的电话服务从三个月前的150万个扩展到200万个座位。</blockquote></p><p> <h4>Outlook</h4> During the quarter, Zoom announced it will acquire cloud contact-center software provider Five9, along with the availability of Zoom Events for premium online meetings. The video communications company also invested in event software maker Cvent that sought to go public through a SPAC.</p><p><blockquote><h4>世界观</h4>本季度，Zoom宣布将收购云联络中心软件提供商Five9，并为高级在线会议提供Zoom Events。这家视频通信公司还投资了活动软件制造商Cvent，该公司寻求通过SPAC上市。</blockquote></p><p> As for the undergoing quarter, Zoom is guiding to 31% growth. Adjusted earnings per share are expected in the range between $1.07 to $1.08 with $1.015 billion to $1.020 billion in revenue.</p><p><blockquote>至于本季度，Zoom预计增长31%。调整后每股收益预计在1.07美元至1.08美元之间，营收为10.15亿美元至10.20亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> For the full fiscal year, it improved its forecast as coronavirus case counts have increased and many companies delayed plans to reopen offices. Adjusted earnings are expected to be in the range between $4.75 to $4.79 per share with the revenue range being within $4.005 billion and $4.015 billion in revenue. Previous estimates for adjusted earnings were $4.56 to $4.61 and $3.98 billion to $3.99 billion for revenue.</p><p><blockquote>对于整个财年，由于冠状病毒病例数增加以及许多公司推迟了重新开放办事处的计划，该公司提高了预测。预计调整后每股收益在4.75美元至4.79美元之间，营收在40.05亿美元至40.15亿美元之间。此前对调整后收益的预期为4.56美元至4.61美元，营收为39.8亿美元至39.9亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The forecast is ahead of analysts' consensus estimates for both adjusted earnings per share and revenue, being $4.67 and $4.01 billion, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>该预测高于分析师对调整后每股收益和营收的普遍预期，分别为4.67美元和40.1亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The guidance assumes strong growth for the direct and channel businesses, but also a weakness in the online business because of challenges encountered by smaller customers and consumers. Gross margin is expected to expand with students resuming classes.</p><p><blockquote>该指南假设直销和渠道业务将强劲增长，但由于小客户和消费者遇到的挑战，在线业务也将疲软。随着学生复课，毛利率预计将扩大。</blockquote></p><p> <h4>The Verdict</h4> By most standards,&nbsp;Zoom's business metrics look solid with 2,278 customers contributing $100,000 or more to its annual revenue. This is well over double its last year's big-client count. Customers with more than 10 employees vaulted over the half-million mark, up 36% YoY. On a trailing 12-month basis, net dollar expansion rates remained above 130%. But its results just weren't good enough for Wall Street who was not pleased to see the company calling for roughly flat third-quarter revenue compared to the second quarter.</p><p><blockquote><h4>判决</h4>按照大多数标准，Zoom的业务指标看起来很稳健，有2,278名客户为其年收入贡献了10万美元或更多。这是去年大客户数量的两倍多。拥有10名以上员工的客户突破50万大关，同比增长36%。在过去12个月的基础上，美元净增长率保持在130%以上。但对于华尔街来说，其业绩还不够好，华尔街不高兴看到该公司要求第三季度收入与第二季度大致持平。</blockquote></p><p> <i>This article is not a press release and is contributed by a verified independent journalist for IAMNewswire. It should not be construed as investment advice at any time please read the full disclosure. IAM Newswire does not hold any position in the mentioned companies. Press Releases – If you are looking for full Press release distribution contact: press@iamnewswire.com Contributors – IAM Newswire accepts pitches. If you're interested in becoming an IAM journalist contact: contributors@iamnewswire.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>本文不是新闻稿，由IAMNewswire的经过验证的独立记者撰写。在任何时候都不应将其解释为投资建议，请阅读完整的披露。IAM Newswire在上述公司中没有任何职位。新闻稿-如果您正在寻找完整的新闻稿分发，请联系：press@iamnewswire.com贡献者-IAM Newswire接受推介。如果您有兴趣成为IAM记者，请联系：contributors@iamnewswire.com</i></blockquote></p><p> The post Zooming in on Zoom's Solid But Not Good Enough Results appeared first on IAM Newswire.</p><p><blockquote>放大Zoom稳健但不够好的结果的帖子首先出现在IAM新闻专线上。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ZM":"Zoom"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2164872049","content_text":"Despite logging its first billion-dollar quarter, the stock of Zoom Video Communications (NASDAQ:ZM) fell almost 11% on Monday after the company posted a higher-than-expected earnings forecast for the full year. The revenue guidance exactly met expectations, but sales-growth rates fall to new lows. In simple words, the video platform has continued to grow, but not at the overly optimistic pace that analysts expected.\nQ2 Figures\nFor the quarter that ended on July 31st, revenue increased by 54% YoY in the quarter  and topping $1 billion for the first time as it amounted to $1.02 billion, also exceeding Refinitiv expectations of $991.0 million as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv. Adjusted net income came in 48% higher from the year-ago quarter, amounting to $1.36 per share, also exceeding $1.16 expected by Refinitiv. Free cash flow improved 22% as it improved to $455 million.\nGross margin improved from 72.3% in the previous quarter to 74.4%. Gross margin benefited from new data center capacity as well as lower usage during the summer, thanks in part to the school break. The Zoom Phone cloud-based phone service expanded from 1.5 million three months earlier to 2 million seats.\nOutlook\nDuring the quarter, Zoom announced it will acquire cloud contact-center software provider Five9, along with the availability of Zoom Events for premium online meetings. The video communications company also invested in event software maker Cvent that sought to go public through a SPAC.\nAs for the undergoing quarter, Zoom is guiding to 31% growth. Adjusted earnings per share are expected in the range between $1.07 to $1.08 with $1.015 billion to $1.020 billion in revenue.\nFor the full fiscal year, it improved its forecast as coronavirus case counts have increased and many companies delayed plans to reopen offices. Adjusted earnings are expected to be in the range between $4.75 to $4.79 per share with the revenue range being within $4.005 billion and $4.015 billion in revenue. Previous estimates for adjusted earnings were $4.56 to $4.61 and $3.98 billion to $3.99 billion for revenue.\nThe forecast is ahead of analysts' consensus estimates for both adjusted earnings per share and revenue, being $4.67 and $4.01 billion, respectively.\nThe guidance assumes strong growth for the direct and channel businesses, but also a weakness in the online business because of challenges encountered by smaller customers and consumers. Gross margin is expected to expand with students resuming classes.\nThe Verdict\nBy most standards, Zoom's business metrics look solid with 2,278 customers contributing $100,000 or more to its annual revenue. This is well over double its last year's big-client count. Customers with more than 10 employees vaulted over the half-million mark, up 36% YoY. On a trailing 12-month basis, net dollar expansion rates remained above 130%. But its results just weren't good enough for Wall Street who was not pleased to see the company calling for roughly flat third-quarter revenue compared to the second quarter.\nThis article is not a press release and is contributed by a verified independent journalist for IAMNewswire. It should not be construed as investment advice at any time please read the full disclosure. IAM Newswire does not hold any position in the mentioned companies. Press Releases – If you are looking for full Press release distribution contact: press@iamnewswire.com Contributors – IAM Newswire accepts pitches. If you're interested in becoming an IAM journalist contact: contributors@iamnewswire.com\nThe post Zooming in on Zoom's Solid But Not Good Enough Results appeared first on IAM Newswire.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ZM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":571,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":863124815,"gmtCreate":1632366408837,"gmtModify":1632800873664,"author":{"id":"3583806200035507","authorId":"3583806200035507","name":"HuiBing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583806200035507","authorIdStr":"3583806200035507"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/863124815","repostId":"2169650271","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2144,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":814976832,"gmtCreate":1630754037226,"gmtModify":1631891625345,"author":{"id":"3583806200035507","authorId":"3583806200035507","name":"HuiBing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583806200035507","authorIdStr":"3583806200035507"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/814976832","repostId":"1186003479","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3279,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":830144350,"gmtCreate":1629037286870,"gmtModify":1631891625390,"author":{"id":"3583806200035507","authorId":"3583806200035507","name":"HuiBing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583806200035507","authorIdStr":"3583806200035507"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/830144350","repostId":"1127633167","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127633167","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628997765,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1127633167?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-15 11:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"These 10 Standout Stocks Could Be the Next Amazon<blockquote>这10只杰出股票可能成为下一个亚马逊</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127633167","media":"Barrons","summary":"One of the most popular buzzwords in investing today is “compounders.” Growth-oriented investors loo","content":"<p>One of the most popular buzzwords in investing today is “compounders.” Growth-oriented investors looking for the next Amazon.com, Costco Wholesale, Nike, or Visa seek to identify companies capable of generating double-digit compound growth in revenue and earnings—preferably both—for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>当今投资界最流行的流行语之一是“复合者”。寻找下一个亚马逊、Costco Wholesale、Nike或Visa的成长型投资者寻求寻找能够在未来几年实现收入和盈利两位数复合增长（最好是两者兼而有之）的公司。</blockquote></p><p> The idea is that stock prices should compound in line with revenue and profits, enabling investors to generate high returns over a holding period of five to 10 years. The ultimate goal is to find the elusive “10 bagger”—a stock&nbsp;that returns 10 times what you paid for it.</p><p><blockquote>这个想法是，股价应该与收入和利润保持一致，使投资者能够在五到十年的持有期内产生高回报。最终目标是找到难以捉摸的“10 bagger”——一只回报率是你购买价格10倍的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street analyst notes and client letters from investment pros are replete with compounder references. Many of the next generation of value managers, identified&nbsp;in a&nbsp;<i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;cover story in May, are seeking such shares, rather than the traditional value fare of cheap stocks.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街分析师的报告和投资专业人士的客户信函中充满了compounder的参考资料。许多下一代价值管理者，在<i>巴伦周刊</i>五月的封面故事，正在寻找这样的股票，而不是传统的廉价股票的价值票价。</blockquote></p><p> Their search has become more challenging, because buyers are paying lofty prices for high-growth stories. Really big winners are scarce. Only about 35 companies in each of a long series of 10-year periods have compounded their stock prices at 20% or more annually, resulting in at least a sixfold increase, according to Durable Capital Partners.</p><p><blockquote>他们的搜索变得更具挑战性，因为买家正在为高增长的故事支付高昂的价格。真正的大赢家很少。Durable Capital Partners的数据显示，在一系列10年期间，只有约35家公司的股价每年复合增长率达到20%或以上，导致股价至少上涨了六倍。</blockquote></p><p> Many investors are happy to stick with large, well-known compounders, such as&nbsp;Alphabet(ticker: GOOGL),Mastercard(MA),UnitedHealth Group(UNH), and&nbsp;Eli Lilly(LLY).</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者很乐意继续投资大型知名复合商，例如Alphabet（股票代码：GOOGL）、万事达卡（MA）、联合健康集团（UNH）和礼来公司（LLY）。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;sought to identify smaller candidates. We talked to investment managers and came up with an eclectic list of 10 stocks, most with market values under $10 billion. Here are the selections, in alphabetical order:</p><p><blockquote><i>巴伦周刊</i>试图确定较小的候选人。我们与投资经理进行了交谈，并列出了一份包含10只股票的折衷清单，其中大多数股票的市值低于100亿美元。以下是按字母顺序排列的选择：</blockquote></p><p> Strong and Steady Wins the RaceHere are 10 stocks that growth investors have identified as being able to generate consistently high growth in revenues or profits for many years.</p><p><blockquote>强劲而稳定的胜利以下是成长型投资者认为能够多年来持续实现收入或利润高增长的10只股票。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <thead>   <tr>    <th>Company / Ticker</th>    <th>Recent Price</th>    <th>YTD Change</th>    <th>2021E P/E</th>    <th>2021E Price/Sales</th>    <th>2022E P/E</th>    <th>2022E Price/Sales</th>    <th>LT Growth Rate*</th>    <th>Market Value (bil)</th>    <th>Comment</th>   </tr>  </thead>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td>Amedysis / AMED</td>    <td>$185.15</td>    <td>-37%</td>    <td>30.2</td>    <td>2.7</td>    <td>27.7</td>    <td>2.4</td>    <td>10.5%</td>    <td>$6.3</td>    <td>Leader in home health care</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amyris / AMRS</td>    <td>13.64</td>    <td>121</td>    <td>NM</td>    <td>10.4</td>    <td>NM</td>    <td>9.7</td>    <td>NA</td>    <td>4.1</td>    <td>Leading company in synthetic biology</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Booz Allen Hamilton Holding / BAH</td>    <td>81.73</td>    <td>-6</td>    <td>19.4</td>    <td>1.3</td>    <td>17.7</td>    <td>1.2</td>    <td>8.6</td>    <td>11.0</td>    <td>Defense-department consultant</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>J.B. Hunt Transport Services / JBHT</td>    <td>172.76</td>    <td>26</td>    <td>25.8</td>    <td>1.5</td>    <td>22.2</td>    <td>1.4</td>    <td>18.4</td>    <td>18.2</td>    <td>Strong in intermodal freight</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Marriott Vacations Worldwide / VAC</td>    <td>147.15</td>    <td>7</td>    <td>40.9</td>    <td>1.6</td>    <td>15.7</td>    <td>1.4</td>    <td>NA</td>    <td>6.3</td>    <td>Top company in vacation timeshares</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>SiteOne Landscape Supply / SITE</td>    <td>197.10</td>    <td>24</td>    <td>45.7</td>    <td>2.6</td>    <td>43.5</td>    <td>2.5</td>    <td>19.3</td>    <td>8.8</td>    <td>Big supplier of landscaping supplies</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Staar Surgical / STAA</td>    <td>138.19</td>    <td>74</td>    <td>192.3</td>    <td>28.6</td>    <td>140.8</td>    <td>22.5</td>    <td>30.0</td>    <td>6.6</td>    <td>Maker of implantable lens for myopia</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Stitch Fix / SFIX</td>    <td>44.38</td>    <td>-24</td>    <td>NM</td>    <td>1.9</td>    <td>1890.3</td>    <td>1.7</td>    <td>30.0</td>    <td>4.8</td>    <td>Data-driven subscription clothing firm</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Trex / TREX</td>    <td>105.94</td>    <td>27</td>    <td>51.9</td>    <td>10.5</td>    <td>43.6</td>    <td>9.3</td>    <td>18.8</td>    <td>12.2</td>    <td>Top maker of synthetic wood decking</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Upwork / UPWK</td>    <td>44.31</td>    <td>28</td>    <td>NM</td>    <td>11.4</td>    <td>556.8</td>    <td>9.2</td>    <td>NA</td>    <td>5.7</td>    <td>Online clearinghouse for free-lancers</td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> E=Estimate. BAH estimates are for fiscal years ending March 2022 and March 23. SFIX estimates are for fiscal years ending July 2022 and July 2023. NM=Not Meaningful. NA=Not Available. *The annual EPS growth the company can sustain over the next 3-5 years.</p><p><blockquote><table><thead><tr><th>公司/股票代码</th><th>近期价格</th><th>年初至今变化</th><th>2021年预计市盈率</th><th>2021E价格/销售额</th><th>2022年预计市盈率</th><th>2022E价格/销售额</th><th>LT增长率*</th><th>市值（bil）</th><th>评论</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Amedysis/AMED</td><td>$185.15</td><td>-37%</td><td>30.2</td><td>2.7</td><td>27.7</td><td>2.4</td><td>10.5%</td><td>$6.3</td><td>家庭医疗保健领域的领导者</td></tr><tr><td>Amyris/AMRS</td><td>13.64</td><td>121</td><td>NM</td><td>10.4</td><td>NM</td><td>9.7</td><td>NA</td><td>4.1</td><td>合成生物学领域的领先公司</td></tr><tr><td>博思艾伦控股/BAH</td><td>81.73</td><td>-6</td><td>19.4</td><td>1.3</td><td>17.7</td><td>1.2</td><td>8.6</td><td>11.0</td><td>国防部顾问</td></tr><tr><td>J.B.亨特运输服务/JBHT</td><td>172.76</td><td>26</td><td>25.8</td><td>1.5</td><td>22.2</td><td>1.4</td><td>18.4</td><td>18.2</td><td>多式联运货运实力强劲</td></tr><tr><td>万豪度假全球/VAC</td><td>147.15</td><td>7</td><td>40.9</td><td>1.6</td><td>15.7</td><td>1.4</td><td>NA</td><td>6.3</td><td>度假分时度假顶级公司</td></tr><tr><td>SiteOne景观供应/站点</td><td>197.10</td><td>24</td><td>45.7</td><td>2.6</td><td>43.5</td><td>2.5</td><td>19.3</td><td>8.8</td><td>园林绿化用品大供应商</td></tr><tr><td>Staar外科/STAA</td><td>138.19</td><td>74</td><td>192.3</td><td>28.6</td><td>140.8</td><td>22.5</td><td>30.0</td><td>6.6</td><td>近视植入式镜片制造商</td></tr><tr><td>缝合固定/SFIX</td><td>44.38</td><td>-24</td><td>NM</td><td>1.9</td><td>1890.3</td><td>1.7</td><td>30.0</td><td>4.8</td><td>数据驱动的订阅服装公司</td></tr><tr><td>Trex/Trex</td><td>105.94</td><td>27</td><td>51.9</td><td>10.5</td><td>43.6</td><td>9.3</td><td>18.8</td><td>12.2</td><td>顶级合成木地板制造商</td></tr><tr><td>Upwork/UPWK</td><td>44.31</td><td>28</td><td>NM</td><td>11.4</td><td>556.8</td><td>9.2</td><td>NA</td><td>5.7</td><td>自由职业者在线信息交换所</td></tr></tbody></table>E=估计值。BAH预估适用于截至2022年3月和3月23日的财年。SFIX预估为截至2022年7月和2023年7月的财年。NM=无意义。NA=不可用。*公司未来3-5年可维持的年度每股收益增长。</blockquote></p><p> Source: FactSet</p><p><blockquote>来源：FactSet</blockquote></p><p> Amedisys(AMED), a provider of home healthcare and hospice services, has a national footprint in a still-fragmented business.</p><p><blockquote>Amedisys(AMED)是一家家庭医疗保健和临终关怀服务提供商，业务仍然分散，业务遍及全国。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “There is going to be massive consolidation of the industry” predicts Dan Cole, a manager of the Columbia Small-Cap Growth fund. “Healthcare is moving to the home.”</p><p><blockquote>哥伦比亚小盘成长基金经理丹·科尔预测，“该行业将会出现大规模整合”。“医疗保健正在向家庭转移。”</blockquote></p><p> Amedisys stock is up more than tenfold in the past decade. But the shares, around $185, are off nearly 30% after the company recently cut 2021 financial guidance, citing Covid-related staffing and cost issues, mostly in acquired hospice operations. The 2021 earnings estimate is now $6.13 a share, down from nearly $7. The stock trades for 30 times projected 2021 profits. Cole says that the company remains capable of generating 10% annual gains in earnings per share.</p><p><blockquote>Amedisys股价在过去十年中上涨了十倍多。但该公司最近以与新冠疫情相关的人员配备和成本问题（主要是收购的临终关怀业务）为由，下调了2021年财务指引，股价约为185美元，下跌了近30%。2021年盈利预期目前为每股6.13美元，低于近7美元。该股的交易价格是2021年预计利润的30倍。科尔表示，该公司仍有能力实现每股收益10%的年增长。</blockquote></p><p> Amyris(AMRS) is a leader in synthetic biology. It fans say its opportunity is to supplant, in an eco-friendly way, a range of products now made from petrochemicals, animals, and plants.</p><p><blockquote>Amyris(AMRS)是合成生物学领域的领导者。它的粉丝们说，它的机会是以一种环保的方式取代一系列现在由石化产品、动物和植物制成的产品。</blockquote></p><p> Using genetically re-engineered yeast and sugar cane, Amyris produces such things as squalane, a high-end moisturizer formerly made from shark livers; vanillin, the flavoring for vanilla; and a no-calorie sweetener normally derived from plants. The stock trades around $13.</p><p><blockquote>Amyris使用基因改造的酵母和甘蔗生产角鲨烷等产品，这是一种以前由鲨鱼肝制成的高端保湿剂；香草醛，香草的调味料；和通常来源于植物的无热量甜味剂。该股交易价格约为13美元。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;wrote&nbsp;favorably on the company in July. Amyris sees sales reaching $2 billion by 2025, up from an estimated $400 million this year, driven by its consumer brands.</p><p><blockquote><i>巴伦周刊</i>7月份对该公司进行了好评。Amyris预计，在其消费品牌的推动下，到2025年销售额将达到20亿美元，高于今年预计的4亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> “The world needs clean chemistry, and Amyris is the point on the spear to create it,” says Randy Baron, a portfolio manager at Pinnacle Associates, which owns Amyris shares. He thinks they could hit $75 by the end of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>拥有Amyris股票的Pinnacle Associates的投资组合经理兰迪·巴伦(Randy Baron)表示：“世界需要清洁化学，而Amyris是创造清洁化学的关键。”他认为到2022年底它们可能会达到75美元。</blockquote></p><p> Booz Allen Hamilton Holding(BAH) is an important consultant to the Defense Department and other agencies. The U.S. government accounted for 97% of its revenue in its latest fiscal year. Booz Allen has built robust ties to the government over the years by providing an array of services, like cybersecurity. Its stock trades around $81, for a 1.8% yield.</p><p><blockquote>博思艾伦控股公司（BAH）是国防部和其他机构的重要顾问。美国政府最近一财年的收入占其收入的97%。多年来，博思艾伦通过提供网络安全等一系列服务与政府建立了牢固的关系。其股价约为81美元，收益率为1.8%。</blockquote></p><p> “It has built a strong, partnership-like culture and has a long record of steady growth,” says Josh Spencer, manager of the T. Rowe Price New Horizons fund. He sees Booz Allen as capable of generating 9% to 10% annual growth in revenue and yearly gains of 15% to 16% in earnings, in line with its historical performance. The stock is off 20% from its peak of $100, amid concerns about more restrained military spending. Spencer sees the pullback as a buying opportunity, with the stock valued at less than 20 times earnings.</p><p><blockquote>T.Rowe Price New Horizons基金经理乔什·斯宾塞(Josh Spencer)表示：“它建立了强大的、类似伙伴关系的文化，并拥有长期稳定增长的记录。”他认为博思艾伦有能力实现9%至10%的收入年增长率和15%至16%的盈利年增长率，与其历史表现一致。由于担心军费开支更加克制，该股较100美元的峰值下跌了20%。斯宾塞将回调视为买入机会，该股的市盈率不到20倍。</blockquote></p><p> J.B. Hunt Transport Services(JBHT) is a leader in intermodal freight, which involves the fuel-efficient movement of trucks over rail lines. It has been one of the most successful trucking companies. Its stock has risen 30-fold over the past 20 years, to a recent $173. “It has an incredible franchise,” says Henry Ellenbogen, chief investment officer at Durable Capital Partners and a member of the&nbsp;Barron’s Roundtable.</p><p><blockquote>J.B.亨特运输服务公司(JBHT)是多式联运货运领域的领导者，该领域涉及卡车在铁路线上的省油运输。它是最成功的卡车运输公司之一。其股价在过去20年中上涨了30倍，最近达到173美元。“它拥有令人难以置信的特许经营权，”Durable Capital Partners首席投资官、《巴伦周刊》圆桌会议成员亨利·埃伦博根(Henry Ellenbogen)表示。</blockquote></p><p> J.B. Hunt’s relationship with the Burlington Northern Santa Fe railroad gives it a strong position in intermodal freight, he notes. J.B. Hunt also has a growing business taking over the trucking operations of smaller companies. And it is involved in digital freight brokerage—matching truckers with shipping customers.</p><p><blockquote>J.B.他指出，亨特与伯灵顿北圣达菲铁路公司的关系使其在多式联运货运领域拥有强大的地位。J.B.亨特的业务也在不断增长，接管了小公司的卡车运输业务。它还参与数字货运经纪业务——为卡车司机和航运客户牵线搭桥。</blockquote></p><p> Ellenbogen says the stock is reasonable at 22 times estimated 2022 profits, given a mid-teens annual growth outlook for earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Ellenbogen表示，考虑到盈利年增长率为十几岁左右，该股2022年预计利润的22倍是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> Marriott Vacations Worldwide(VAC) is one of the top companies in the timeshare industry. It has 700,000 owners, a resilient business model with significant revenue from fees, and more exposure than its peers to luxury properties in places including Hawaii and Orlando, Fla.</p><p><blockquote>万豪度假全球（VAC）是分时度假行业的顶级公司之一。它拥有700,000名业主，拥有富有弹性的商业模式，从费用中获得可观的收入，并且比同行更多地接触夏威夷和佛罗里达州奥兰多等地的豪华房产。</blockquote></p><p> “It has the best customer base, with the highest spending and an impeccable balance sheet,” says David Baron, a manager of the Baron Focused Growth fund. Marriott Vacations, whose shares recently were trading around $145, should reinstate its dividend later this year, he adds.</p><p><blockquote>Baron Focused Growth基金经理David Baron表示：“它拥有最好的客户群、最高的支出和无可挑剔的资产负债表。”他补充道，万豪度假公司的股价最近约为145美元，应该会在今年晚些时候恢复股息。</blockquote></p><p> The shares, Baron argues, are cheap at a 11% free-cash-flow yield, based on 2022 estimates. He says that the stock, little changed since 2018, could produce 20% annual returns for shareholders in the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>Baron认为，根据2022年的预测，该股的自由现金流收益率为11%，价格低廉。他表示，该股自2018年以来几乎没有变化，未来几年可能为股东带来20%的年回报率。</blockquote></p><p> SiteOne Landscape Supply(SITE) is the country’s top supplier of landscaping products, with ample opportunity to expand, given that it has just a 13% market share in a highly fragmented industry.</p><p><blockquote>SiteOne Landscape Supply(SITE)是该国最大的景观美化产品供应商，鉴于其在高度分散的行业中仅占13%的市场份额，因此有充足的扩张机会。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s growing organically and has lots of acquisition opportunities,” says Columbia’s Cole, who considers the company to be capable of 10% to 15% annual revenue growth.</p><p><blockquote>哥伦比亚大学的科尔表示：“它正在有机增长，并且有很多收购机会。”他认为该公司的年收入有能力增长10%至15%。</blockquote></p><p> The stock, around $197, has a rich valuation, trading for 43 times projected 2022 earnings of $4.54 a share.</p><p><blockquote>该股股价约为197美元，估值很高，交易价格是2022年预计每股收益4.54美元的43倍。</blockquote></p><p> Staar Surgical(STAA) has developed an implantable lens to correct myopia (nearsightedness). That addresses a potentially huge market, given the rising global incidence of that vision problem. The company expects the lens, which has been available in Europe and Asia for at least five years, to be on the U.S. market in the fourth quarter, pending Food and Drug Administration approval.</p><p><blockquote>Staar外科公司（STAA）开发了一种可植入晶状体来矫正近视（近视）。鉴于全球视力问题的发病率不断上升，这解决了一个潜在的巨大市场。该公司预计，这款镜片已在欧洲和亚洲上市至少五年，将于第四季度进入美国市场，等待美国食品和药物管理局的批准。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “It could do substantial volumes,’’ says Doug Brodie, a global manager at Baillie Gifford. “It’s early in a journey and is largely devoid of competition.”</p><p><blockquote>Baillie Gifford全球经理道格·布罗迪(Doug Brodie)表示：“它的销量可能会很大。它还处于起步阶段，基本上没有竞争。”</blockquote></p><p> Lenses for both eyes can be implanted in less than an hour, and they don’t involve the removal of the natural lenses. The wholesale cost in the U.S. could be around $1,000 per lens.</p><p><blockquote>双眼的晶状体可以在不到一个小时内植入，而且不需要移除天然晶状体。在美国，每个镜片的批发成本可能在1000美元左右。</blockquote></p><p> At a recent $138, Staar shares are richly valued at more than 20 times projected 2022 sales and 140 times estimated 2022 earnings. But the market opportunity is enormous: Some five billion people worldwide could have myopia by 2050.</p><p><blockquote>Staar股价最近为138美元，其估值超过2022年预计销售额的20倍，是2022年预计收益的140倍。但市场机会是巨大的：到2050年，全球约有50亿人可能患有近视。</blockquote></p><p> Stitch Fix(SFIX) has developed a subscription service for clothing, shoes, and other accessories and boasts over four million customers.</p><p><blockquote>Stitch Fix(SFIX)开发了服装、鞋子和其他配饰的订阅服务，拥有超过400万客户。</blockquote></p><p> “This could be the Nordstrom of the future,” says Mario Cibelli, chief investment officer at Marathon Partners Equity Management, a Stitch Fix holder. “This a potentially huge market and nobody is addressing it in the same way.” Using a staff of 6,000 personal stylists and lots of data, Stitch Fix seeks to identify subscriber tastes to generate high satisfaction and limit returns on packages sent at intervals and determined by subscribers.</p><p><blockquote>“这可能是未来的诺德斯特龙，”Stitch Fix持有者Marathon Partners Equity Management首席投资官马里奥·西贝利(Mario Cibelli)表示。“这是一个潜在的巨大市场，没有人以同样的方式解决这个问题。”Stitch Fix利用6000名个人造型师和大量数据，试图确定订户的品味，以产生高满意度，并限制每隔一段时间发送并由订户决定的包裹的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Its shares, around $44, are down 60% from their level earlier in the year, on investors’ worries about potential churn and the business’s ultimate profitability.</p><p><blockquote>由于投资者对潜在客户流失和业务最终盈利能力的担忧，其股价约为44美元，较今年早些时候的水平下跌了60%。</blockquote></p><p> Yet Cibelli sees revenue growth of 20%-plus annually, opportunities outside its current U.S. and U.K. markets, and a potentially very profitable business in two to three years.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Cibelli预计收入每年将增长20%以上，在当前美国和英国市场之外还有机会，并且在两到三年内业务可能会非常有利可图。</blockquote></p><p> Trex(TREX) is the top producer of a high-end wood alternative for decks that comes from 95% recycled material, making it an eco-friendly housing play. The shares, at $105, trade for 43 times projected 2022 earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Trex(TREX)是甲板高端木材替代品的顶级生产商，其95%来自回收材料，使其成为一种环保的住房。该股股价为105美元，是2022年预计市盈率的43倍。</blockquote></p><p> T. Rowe Price’s Spencer views Trex as worth the price, based on his view that it can generate sustainable annual revenue growth of 15% to 20%. Earnings are expected to climb by about 20% in 2022 and at a similar pace in the following years. “If you roll the clock forward three years, it doesn’t look as expensive,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>T.Rowe Price的Spencer认为Trex物有所值，因为他认为它可以产生15%至20%的可持续年收入增长。预计2022年盈利将增长约20%，并在接下来的几年中以类似的速度增长。“如果你把时间拨快三年，它看起来并没有那么贵，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Upwork(UPWK), an online marketplace for freelance workers, is favored by Baillie Gifford’s Brodie, who says it offers a play on the greater acceptance of freelancers by businesses.</p><p><blockquote>Upwork(UPWK)是一个面向自由职业者的在线市场，受到Baillie Gifford的Brodie的青睐，他表示，它可以让企业更好地接受自由职业者。</blockquote></p><p> The shares, recently around $44, aren’t cheap. Upwork is valued at $5.7 billion, or more than 10 times this year’s projected sales of nearly $500 million. It operates at a slight loss.</p><p><blockquote>该股最近约为44美元，并不便宜。Upwork的估值为57亿美元，是今年预计销售额近5亿美元的10倍以上。它的运营略有亏损。</blockquote></p><p> The investment case is about rapid sales growth leading to ample earnings. Sales are expected to rise by 30%-plus this year and 25% for 2022.</p><p><blockquote>投资案例是关于快速销售增长带来丰厚收益。预计今年销售额将增长30%以上，2022年将增长25%。</blockquote></p><p> “Freelancers are more accepted by small to midsize business, but they’ve been frowned on by the HR departments at large businesses,” Brodie says. Upwork aims to change that perception by vetting its freelancers and by offering thousands of skill sets. “Upwork could become a trusted partner for an increasing number of enterprise-grade partners,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>“自由职业者更容易被中小型企业接受，但大型企业的人力资源部门却不喜欢他们，”布罗迪说。Upwork旨在通过审查自由职业者和提供数千种技能来改变这种看法。“Upwork可以成为越来越多企业级合作伙伴值得信赖的合作伙伴，”他说。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>These 10 Standout Stocks Could Be the Next Amazon<blockquote>这10只杰出股票可能成为下一个亚马逊</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThese 10 Standout Stocks Could Be the Next Amazon<blockquote>这10只杰出股票可能成为下一个亚马逊</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-15 11:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>One of the most popular buzzwords in investing today is “compounders.” Growth-oriented investors looking for the next Amazon.com, Costco Wholesale, Nike, or Visa seek to identify companies capable of generating double-digit compound growth in revenue and earnings—preferably both—for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>当今投资界最流行的流行语之一是“复合者”。寻找下一个亚马逊、Costco Wholesale、Nike或Visa的成长型投资者寻求寻找能够在未来几年实现收入和盈利两位数复合增长（最好是两者兼而有之）的公司。</blockquote></p><p> The idea is that stock prices should compound in line with revenue and profits, enabling investors to generate high returns over a holding period of five to 10 years. The ultimate goal is to find the elusive “10 bagger”—a stock&nbsp;that returns 10 times what you paid for it.</p><p><blockquote>这个想法是，股价应该与收入和利润保持一致，使投资者能够在五到十年的持有期内产生高回报。最终目标是找到难以捉摸的“10 bagger”——一只回报率是你购买价格10倍的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street analyst notes and client letters from investment pros are replete with compounder references. Many of the next generation of value managers, identified&nbsp;in a&nbsp;<i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;cover story in May, are seeking such shares, rather than the traditional value fare of cheap stocks.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街分析师的报告和投资专业人士的客户信函中充满了compounder的参考资料。许多下一代价值管理者，在<i>巴伦周刊</i>五月的封面故事，正在寻找这样的股票，而不是传统的廉价股票的价值票价。</blockquote></p><p> Their search has become more challenging, because buyers are paying lofty prices for high-growth stories. Really big winners are scarce. Only about 35 companies in each of a long series of 10-year periods have compounded their stock prices at 20% or more annually, resulting in at least a sixfold increase, according to Durable Capital Partners.</p><p><blockquote>他们的搜索变得更具挑战性，因为买家正在为高增长的故事支付高昂的价格。真正的大赢家很少。Durable Capital Partners的数据显示，在一系列10年期间，只有约35家公司的股价每年复合增长率达到20%或以上，导致股价至少上涨了六倍。</blockquote></p><p> Many investors are happy to stick with large, well-known compounders, such as&nbsp;Alphabet(ticker: GOOGL),Mastercard(MA),UnitedHealth Group(UNH), and&nbsp;Eli Lilly(LLY).</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者很乐意继续投资大型知名复合商，例如Alphabet（股票代码：GOOGL）、万事达卡（MA）、联合健康集团（UNH）和礼来公司（LLY）。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;sought to identify smaller candidates. We talked to investment managers and came up with an eclectic list of 10 stocks, most with market values under $10 billion. Here are the selections, in alphabetical order:</p><p><blockquote><i>巴伦周刊</i>试图确定较小的候选人。我们与投资经理进行了交谈，并列出了一份包含10只股票的折衷清单，其中大多数股票的市值低于100亿美元。以下是按字母顺序排列的选择：</blockquote></p><p> Strong and Steady Wins the RaceHere are 10 stocks that growth investors have identified as being able to generate consistently high growth in revenues or profits for many years.</p><p><blockquote>强劲而稳定的胜利以下是成长型投资者认为能够多年来持续实现收入或利润高增长的10只股票。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <thead>   <tr>    <th>Company / Ticker</th>    <th>Recent Price</th>    <th>YTD Change</th>    <th>2021E P/E</th>    <th>2021E Price/Sales</th>    <th>2022E P/E</th>    <th>2022E Price/Sales</th>    <th>LT Growth Rate*</th>    <th>Market Value (bil)</th>    <th>Comment</th>   </tr>  </thead>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td>Amedysis / AMED</td>    <td>$185.15</td>    <td>-37%</td>    <td>30.2</td>    <td>2.7</td>    <td>27.7</td>    <td>2.4</td>    <td>10.5%</td>    <td>$6.3</td>    <td>Leader in home health care</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amyris / AMRS</td>    <td>13.64</td>    <td>121</td>    <td>NM</td>    <td>10.4</td>    <td>NM</td>    <td>9.7</td>    <td>NA</td>    <td>4.1</td>    <td>Leading company in synthetic biology</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Booz Allen Hamilton Holding / BAH</td>    <td>81.73</td>    <td>-6</td>    <td>19.4</td>    <td>1.3</td>    <td>17.7</td>    <td>1.2</td>    <td>8.6</td>    <td>11.0</td>    <td>Defense-department consultant</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>J.B. Hunt Transport Services / JBHT</td>    <td>172.76</td>    <td>26</td>    <td>25.8</td>    <td>1.5</td>    <td>22.2</td>    <td>1.4</td>    <td>18.4</td>    <td>18.2</td>    <td>Strong in intermodal freight</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Marriott Vacations Worldwide / VAC</td>    <td>147.15</td>    <td>7</td>    <td>40.9</td>    <td>1.6</td>    <td>15.7</td>    <td>1.4</td>    <td>NA</td>    <td>6.3</td>    <td>Top company in vacation timeshares</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>SiteOne Landscape Supply / SITE</td>    <td>197.10</td>    <td>24</td>    <td>45.7</td>    <td>2.6</td>    <td>43.5</td>    <td>2.5</td>    <td>19.3</td>    <td>8.8</td>    <td>Big supplier of landscaping supplies</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Staar Surgical / STAA</td>    <td>138.19</td>    <td>74</td>    <td>192.3</td>    <td>28.6</td>    <td>140.8</td>    <td>22.5</td>    <td>30.0</td>    <td>6.6</td>    <td>Maker of implantable lens for myopia</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Stitch Fix / SFIX</td>    <td>44.38</td>    <td>-24</td>    <td>NM</td>    <td>1.9</td>    <td>1890.3</td>    <td>1.7</td>    <td>30.0</td>    <td>4.8</td>    <td>Data-driven subscription clothing firm</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Trex / TREX</td>    <td>105.94</td>    <td>27</td>    <td>51.9</td>    <td>10.5</td>    <td>43.6</td>    <td>9.3</td>    <td>18.8</td>    <td>12.2</td>    <td>Top maker of synthetic wood decking</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Upwork / UPWK</td>    <td>44.31</td>    <td>28</td>    <td>NM</td>    <td>11.4</td>    <td>556.8</td>    <td>9.2</td>    <td>NA</td>    <td>5.7</td>    <td>Online clearinghouse for free-lancers</td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> E=Estimate. BAH estimates are for fiscal years ending March 2022 and March 23. SFIX estimates are for fiscal years ending July 2022 and July 2023. NM=Not Meaningful. NA=Not Available. *The annual EPS growth the company can sustain over the next 3-5 years.</p><p><blockquote><table><thead><tr><th>公司/股票代码</th><th>近期价格</th><th>年初至今变化</th><th>2021年预计市盈率</th><th>2021E价格/销售额</th><th>2022年预计市盈率</th><th>2022E价格/销售额</th><th>LT增长率*</th><th>市值（bil）</th><th>评论</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Amedysis/AMED</td><td>$185.15</td><td>-37%</td><td>30.2</td><td>2.7</td><td>27.7</td><td>2.4</td><td>10.5%</td><td>$6.3</td><td>家庭医疗保健领域的领导者</td></tr><tr><td>Amyris/AMRS</td><td>13.64</td><td>121</td><td>NM</td><td>10.4</td><td>NM</td><td>9.7</td><td>NA</td><td>4.1</td><td>合成生物学领域的领先公司</td></tr><tr><td>博思艾伦控股/BAH</td><td>81.73</td><td>-6</td><td>19.4</td><td>1.3</td><td>17.7</td><td>1.2</td><td>8.6</td><td>11.0</td><td>国防部顾问</td></tr><tr><td>J.B.亨特运输服务/JBHT</td><td>172.76</td><td>26</td><td>25.8</td><td>1.5</td><td>22.2</td><td>1.4</td><td>18.4</td><td>18.2</td><td>多式联运货运实力强劲</td></tr><tr><td>万豪度假全球/VAC</td><td>147.15</td><td>7</td><td>40.9</td><td>1.6</td><td>15.7</td><td>1.4</td><td>NA</td><td>6.3</td><td>度假分时度假顶级公司</td></tr><tr><td>SiteOne景观供应/站点</td><td>197.10</td><td>24</td><td>45.7</td><td>2.6</td><td>43.5</td><td>2.5</td><td>19.3</td><td>8.8</td><td>园林绿化用品大供应商</td></tr><tr><td>Staar外科/STAA</td><td>138.19</td><td>74</td><td>192.3</td><td>28.6</td><td>140.8</td><td>22.5</td><td>30.0</td><td>6.6</td><td>近视植入式镜片制造商</td></tr><tr><td>缝合固定/SFIX</td><td>44.38</td><td>-24</td><td>NM</td><td>1.9</td><td>1890.3</td><td>1.7</td><td>30.0</td><td>4.8</td><td>数据驱动的订阅服装公司</td></tr><tr><td>Trex/Trex</td><td>105.94</td><td>27</td><td>51.9</td><td>10.5</td><td>43.6</td><td>9.3</td><td>18.8</td><td>12.2</td><td>顶级合成木地板制造商</td></tr><tr><td>Upwork/UPWK</td><td>44.31</td><td>28</td><td>NM</td><td>11.4</td><td>556.8</td><td>9.2</td><td>NA</td><td>5.7</td><td>自由职业者在线信息交换所</td></tr></tbody></table>E=估计值。BAH预估适用于截至2022年3月和3月23日的财年。SFIX预估为截至2022年7月和2023年7月的财年。NM=无意义。NA=不可用。*公司未来3-5年可维持的年度每股收益增长。</blockquote></p><p> Source: FactSet</p><p><blockquote>来源：FactSet</blockquote></p><p> Amedisys(AMED), a provider of home healthcare and hospice services, has a national footprint in a still-fragmented business.</p><p><blockquote>Amedisys(AMED)是一家家庭医疗保健和临终关怀服务提供商，业务仍然分散，业务遍及全国。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “There is going to be massive consolidation of the industry” predicts Dan Cole, a manager of the Columbia Small-Cap Growth fund. “Healthcare is moving to the home.”</p><p><blockquote>哥伦比亚小盘成长基金经理丹·科尔预测，“该行业将会出现大规模整合”。“医疗保健正在向家庭转移。”</blockquote></p><p> Amedisys stock is up more than tenfold in the past decade. But the shares, around $185, are off nearly 30% after the company recently cut 2021 financial guidance, citing Covid-related staffing and cost issues, mostly in acquired hospice operations. The 2021 earnings estimate is now $6.13 a share, down from nearly $7. The stock trades for 30 times projected 2021 profits. Cole says that the company remains capable of generating 10% annual gains in earnings per share.</p><p><blockquote>Amedisys股价在过去十年中上涨了十倍多。但该公司最近以与新冠疫情相关的人员配备和成本问题（主要是收购的临终关怀业务）为由，下调了2021年财务指引，股价约为185美元，下跌了近30%。2021年盈利预期目前为每股6.13美元，低于近7美元。该股的交易价格是2021年预计利润的30倍。科尔表示，该公司仍有能力实现每股收益10%的年增长。</blockquote></p><p> Amyris(AMRS) is a leader in synthetic biology. It fans say its opportunity is to supplant, in an eco-friendly way, a range of products now made from petrochemicals, animals, and plants.</p><p><blockquote>Amyris(AMRS)是合成生物学领域的领导者。它的粉丝们说，它的机会是以一种环保的方式取代一系列现在由石化产品、动物和植物制成的产品。</blockquote></p><p> Using genetically re-engineered yeast and sugar cane, Amyris produces such things as squalane, a high-end moisturizer formerly made from shark livers; vanillin, the flavoring for vanilla; and a no-calorie sweetener normally derived from plants. The stock trades around $13.</p><p><blockquote>Amyris使用基因改造的酵母和甘蔗生产角鲨烷等产品，这是一种以前由鲨鱼肝制成的高端保湿剂；香草醛，香草的调味料；和通常来源于植物的无热量甜味剂。该股交易价格约为13美元。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;wrote&nbsp;favorably on the company in July. Amyris sees sales reaching $2 billion by 2025, up from an estimated $400 million this year, driven by its consumer brands.</p><p><blockquote><i>巴伦周刊</i>7月份对该公司进行了好评。Amyris预计，在其消费品牌的推动下，到2025年销售额将达到20亿美元，高于今年预计的4亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> “The world needs clean chemistry, and Amyris is the point on the spear to create it,” says Randy Baron, a portfolio manager at Pinnacle Associates, which owns Amyris shares. He thinks they could hit $75 by the end of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>拥有Amyris股票的Pinnacle Associates的投资组合经理兰迪·巴伦(Randy Baron)表示：“世界需要清洁化学，而Amyris是创造清洁化学的关键。”他认为到2022年底它们可能会达到75美元。</blockquote></p><p> Booz Allen Hamilton Holding(BAH) is an important consultant to the Defense Department and other agencies. The U.S. government accounted for 97% of its revenue in its latest fiscal year. Booz Allen has built robust ties to the government over the years by providing an array of services, like cybersecurity. Its stock trades around $81, for a 1.8% yield.</p><p><blockquote>博思艾伦控股公司（BAH）是国防部和其他机构的重要顾问。美国政府最近一财年的收入占其收入的97%。多年来，博思艾伦通过提供网络安全等一系列服务与政府建立了牢固的关系。其股价约为81美元，收益率为1.8%。</blockquote></p><p> “It has built a strong, partnership-like culture and has a long record of steady growth,” says Josh Spencer, manager of the T. Rowe Price New Horizons fund. He sees Booz Allen as capable of generating 9% to 10% annual growth in revenue and yearly gains of 15% to 16% in earnings, in line with its historical performance. The stock is off 20% from its peak of $100, amid concerns about more restrained military spending. Spencer sees the pullback as a buying opportunity, with the stock valued at less than 20 times earnings.</p><p><blockquote>T.Rowe Price New Horizons基金经理乔什·斯宾塞(Josh Spencer)表示：“它建立了强大的、类似伙伴关系的文化，并拥有长期稳定增长的记录。”他认为博思艾伦有能力实现9%至10%的收入年增长率和15%至16%的盈利年增长率，与其历史表现一致。由于担心军费开支更加克制，该股较100美元的峰值下跌了20%。斯宾塞将回调视为买入机会，该股的市盈率不到20倍。</blockquote></p><p> J.B. Hunt Transport Services(JBHT) is a leader in intermodal freight, which involves the fuel-efficient movement of trucks over rail lines. It has been one of the most successful trucking companies. Its stock has risen 30-fold over the past 20 years, to a recent $173. “It has an incredible franchise,” says Henry Ellenbogen, chief investment officer at Durable Capital Partners and a member of the&nbsp;Barron’s Roundtable.</p><p><blockquote>J.B.亨特运输服务公司(JBHT)是多式联运货运领域的领导者，该领域涉及卡车在铁路线上的省油运输。它是最成功的卡车运输公司之一。其股价在过去20年中上涨了30倍，最近达到173美元。“它拥有令人难以置信的特许经营权，”Durable Capital Partners首席投资官、《巴伦周刊》圆桌会议成员亨利·埃伦博根(Henry Ellenbogen)表示。</blockquote></p><p> J.B. Hunt’s relationship with the Burlington Northern Santa Fe railroad gives it a strong position in intermodal freight, he notes. J.B. Hunt also has a growing business taking over the trucking operations of smaller companies. And it is involved in digital freight brokerage—matching truckers with shipping customers.</p><p><blockquote>J.B.他指出，亨特与伯灵顿北圣达菲铁路公司的关系使其在多式联运货运领域拥有强大的地位。J.B.亨特的业务也在不断增长，接管了小公司的卡车运输业务。它还参与数字货运经纪业务——为卡车司机和航运客户牵线搭桥。</blockquote></p><p> Ellenbogen says the stock is reasonable at 22 times estimated 2022 profits, given a mid-teens annual growth outlook for earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Ellenbogen表示，考虑到盈利年增长率为十几岁左右，该股2022年预计利润的22倍是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> Marriott Vacations Worldwide(VAC) is one of the top companies in the timeshare industry. It has 700,000 owners, a resilient business model with significant revenue from fees, and more exposure than its peers to luxury properties in places including Hawaii and Orlando, Fla.</p><p><blockquote>万豪度假全球（VAC）是分时度假行业的顶级公司之一。它拥有700,000名业主，拥有富有弹性的商业模式，从费用中获得可观的收入，并且比同行更多地接触夏威夷和佛罗里达州奥兰多等地的豪华房产。</blockquote></p><p> “It has the best customer base, with the highest spending and an impeccable balance sheet,” says David Baron, a manager of the Baron Focused Growth fund. Marriott Vacations, whose shares recently were trading around $145, should reinstate its dividend later this year, he adds.</p><p><blockquote>Baron Focused Growth基金经理David Baron表示：“它拥有最好的客户群、最高的支出和无可挑剔的资产负债表。”他补充道，万豪度假公司的股价最近约为145美元，应该会在今年晚些时候恢复股息。</blockquote></p><p> The shares, Baron argues, are cheap at a 11% free-cash-flow yield, based on 2022 estimates. He says that the stock, little changed since 2018, could produce 20% annual returns for shareholders in the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>Baron认为，根据2022年的预测，该股的自由现金流收益率为11%，价格低廉。他表示，该股自2018年以来几乎没有变化，未来几年可能为股东带来20%的年回报率。</blockquote></p><p> SiteOne Landscape Supply(SITE) is the country’s top supplier of landscaping products, with ample opportunity to expand, given that it has just a 13% market share in a highly fragmented industry.</p><p><blockquote>SiteOne Landscape Supply(SITE)是该国最大的景观美化产品供应商，鉴于其在高度分散的行业中仅占13%的市场份额，因此有充足的扩张机会。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s growing organically and has lots of acquisition opportunities,” says Columbia’s Cole, who considers the company to be capable of 10% to 15% annual revenue growth.</p><p><blockquote>哥伦比亚大学的科尔表示：“它正在有机增长，并且有很多收购机会。”他认为该公司的年收入有能力增长10%至15%。</blockquote></p><p> The stock, around $197, has a rich valuation, trading for 43 times projected 2022 earnings of $4.54 a share.</p><p><blockquote>该股股价约为197美元，估值很高，交易价格是2022年预计每股收益4.54美元的43倍。</blockquote></p><p> Staar Surgical(STAA) has developed an implantable lens to correct myopia (nearsightedness). That addresses a potentially huge market, given the rising global incidence of that vision problem. The company expects the lens, which has been available in Europe and Asia for at least five years, to be on the U.S. market in the fourth quarter, pending Food and Drug Administration approval.</p><p><blockquote>Staar外科公司（STAA）开发了一种可植入晶状体来矫正近视（近视）。鉴于全球视力问题的发病率不断上升，这解决了一个潜在的巨大市场。该公司预计，这款镜片已在欧洲和亚洲上市至少五年，将于第四季度进入美国市场，等待美国食品和药物管理局的批准。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “It could do substantial volumes,’’ says Doug Brodie, a global manager at Baillie Gifford. “It’s early in a journey and is largely devoid of competition.”</p><p><blockquote>Baillie Gifford全球经理道格·布罗迪(Doug Brodie)表示：“它的销量可能会很大。它还处于起步阶段，基本上没有竞争。”</blockquote></p><p> Lenses for both eyes can be implanted in less than an hour, and they don’t involve the removal of the natural lenses. The wholesale cost in the U.S. could be around $1,000 per lens.</p><p><blockquote>双眼的晶状体可以在不到一个小时内植入，而且不需要移除天然晶状体。在美国，每个镜片的批发成本可能在1000美元左右。</blockquote></p><p> At a recent $138, Staar shares are richly valued at more than 20 times projected 2022 sales and 140 times estimated 2022 earnings. But the market opportunity is enormous: Some five billion people worldwide could have myopia by 2050.</p><p><blockquote>Staar股价最近为138美元，其估值超过2022年预计销售额的20倍，是2022年预计收益的140倍。但市场机会是巨大的：到2050年，全球约有50亿人可能患有近视。</blockquote></p><p> Stitch Fix(SFIX) has developed a subscription service for clothing, shoes, and other accessories and boasts over four million customers.</p><p><blockquote>Stitch Fix(SFIX)开发了服装、鞋子和其他配饰的订阅服务，拥有超过400万客户。</blockquote></p><p> “This could be the Nordstrom of the future,” says Mario Cibelli, chief investment officer at Marathon Partners Equity Management, a Stitch Fix holder. “This a potentially huge market and nobody is addressing it in the same way.” Using a staff of 6,000 personal stylists and lots of data, Stitch Fix seeks to identify subscriber tastes to generate high satisfaction and limit returns on packages sent at intervals and determined by subscribers.</p><p><blockquote>“这可能是未来的诺德斯特龙，”Stitch Fix持有者Marathon Partners Equity Management首席投资官马里奥·西贝利(Mario Cibelli)表示。“这是一个潜在的巨大市场，没有人以同样的方式解决这个问题。”Stitch Fix利用6000名个人造型师和大量数据，试图确定订户的品味，以产生高满意度，并限制每隔一段时间发送并由订户决定的包裹的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Its shares, around $44, are down 60% from their level earlier in the year, on investors’ worries about potential churn and the business’s ultimate profitability.</p><p><blockquote>由于投资者对潜在客户流失和业务最终盈利能力的担忧，其股价约为44美元，较今年早些时候的水平下跌了60%。</blockquote></p><p> Yet Cibelli sees revenue growth of 20%-plus annually, opportunities outside its current U.S. and U.K. markets, and a potentially very profitable business in two to three years.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Cibelli预计收入每年将增长20%以上，在当前美国和英国市场之外还有机会，并且在两到三年内业务可能会非常有利可图。</blockquote></p><p> Trex(TREX) is the top producer of a high-end wood alternative for decks that comes from 95% recycled material, making it an eco-friendly housing play. The shares, at $105, trade for 43 times projected 2022 earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Trex(TREX)是甲板高端木材替代品的顶级生产商，其95%来自回收材料，使其成为一种环保的住房。该股股价为105美元，是2022年预计市盈率的43倍。</blockquote></p><p> T. Rowe Price’s Spencer views Trex as worth the price, based on his view that it can generate sustainable annual revenue growth of 15% to 20%. Earnings are expected to climb by about 20% in 2022 and at a similar pace in the following years. “If you roll the clock forward three years, it doesn’t look as expensive,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>T.Rowe Price的Spencer认为Trex物有所值，因为他认为它可以产生15%至20%的可持续年收入增长。预计2022年盈利将增长约20%，并在接下来的几年中以类似的速度增长。“如果你把时间拨快三年，它看起来并没有那么贵，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Upwork(UPWK), an online marketplace for freelance workers, is favored by Baillie Gifford’s Brodie, who says it offers a play on the greater acceptance of freelancers by businesses.</p><p><blockquote>Upwork(UPWK)是一个面向自由职业者的在线市场，受到Baillie Gifford的Brodie的青睐，他表示，它可以让企业更好地接受自由职业者。</blockquote></p><p> The shares, recently around $44, aren’t cheap. Upwork is valued at $5.7 billion, or more than 10 times this year’s projected sales of nearly $500 million. It operates at a slight loss.</p><p><blockquote>该股最近约为44美元，并不便宜。Upwork的估值为57亿美元，是今年预计销售额近5亿美元的10倍以上。它的运营略有亏损。</blockquote></p><p> The investment case is about rapid sales growth leading to ample earnings. Sales are expected to rise by 30%-plus this year and 25% for 2022.</p><p><blockquote>投资案例是关于快速销售增长带来丰厚收益。预计今年销售额将增长30%以上，2022年将增长25%。</blockquote></p><p> “Freelancers are more accepted by small to midsize business, but they’ve been frowned on by the HR departments at large businesses,” Brodie says. Upwork aims to change that perception by vetting its freelancers and by offering thousands of skill sets. “Upwork could become a trusted partner for an increasing number of enterprise-grade partners,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>“自由职业者更容易被中小型企业接受，但大型企业的人力资源部门却不喜欢他们，”布罗迪说。Upwork旨在通过审查自由职业者和提供数千种技能来改变这种看法。“Upwork可以成为越来越多企业级合作伙伴值得信赖的合作伙伴，”他说。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-potential-compounder-growth-51628888840?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"JBHT":"JB Hunt运输服务","VAC":"万豪度假环球","STAA":"STAAR Surgical Company","AMRS":"阿米瑞斯","SITE":"SiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc.","SFIX":"Stitch Fix Inc.","TREX":"Trex Co Inc","BAH":"博思艾伦咨询公司","AMED":"阿米斯医疗","UPWK":"Upwork Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-potential-compounder-growth-51628888840?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127633167","content_text":"One of the most popular buzzwords in investing today is “compounders.” Growth-oriented investors looking for the next Amazon.com, Costco Wholesale, Nike, or Visa seek to identify companies capable of generating double-digit compound growth in revenue and earnings—preferably both—for years to come.\nThe idea is that stock prices should compound in line with revenue and profits, enabling investors to generate high returns over a holding period of five to 10 years. The ultimate goal is to find the elusive “10 bagger”—a stock that returns 10 times what you paid for it.\nWall Street analyst notes and client letters from investment pros are replete with compounder references. Many of the next generation of value managers, identified in a Barron’s cover story in May, are seeking such shares, rather than the traditional value fare of cheap stocks.\nTheir search has become more challenging, because buyers are paying lofty prices for high-growth stories. Really big winners are scarce. Only about 35 companies in each of a long series of 10-year periods have compounded their stock prices at 20% or more annually, resulting in at least a sixfold increase, according to Durable Capital Partners.\nMany investors are happy to stick with large, well-known compounders, such as Alphabet(ticker: GOOGL),Mastercard(MA),UnitedHealth Group(UNH), and Eli Lilly(LLY).\nBarron’s sought to identify smaller candidates. We talked to investment managers and came up with an eclectic list of 10 stocks, most with market values under $10 billion. Here are the selections, in alphabetical order:\nStrong and Steady Wins the RaceHere are 10 stocks that growth investors have identified as being able to generate consistently high growth in revenues or profits for many years.\n\n\n\nCompany / Ticker\nRecent Price\nYTD Change\n2021E P/E\n2021E Price/Sales\n2022E P/E\n2022E Price/Sales\nLT Growth Rate*\nMarket Value (bil)\nComment\n\n\n\n\nAmedysis / AMED\n$185.15\n-37%\n30.2\n2.7\n27.7\n2.4\n10.5%\n$6.3\nLeader in home health care\n\n\nAmyris / AMRS\n13.64\n121\nNM\n10.4\nNM\n9.7\nNA\n4.1\nLeading company in synthetic biology\n\n\nBooz Allen Hamilton Holding / BAH\n81.73\n-6\n19.4\n1.3\n17.7\n1.2\n8.6\n11.0\nDefense-department consultant\n\n\nJ.B. Hunt Transport Services / JBHT\n172.76\n26\n25.8\n1.5\n22.2\n1.4\n18.4\n18.2\nStrong in intermodal freight\n\n\nMarriott Vacations Worldwide / VAC\n147.15\n7\n40.9\n1.6\n15.7\n1.4\nNA\n6.3\nTop company in vacation timeshares\n\n\nSiteOne Landscape Supply / SITE\n197.10\n24\n45.7\n2.6\n43.5\n2.5\n19.3\n8.8\nBig supplier of landscaping supplies\n\n\nStaar Surgical / STAA\n138.19\n74\n192.3\n28.6\n140.8\n22.5\n30.0\n6.6\nMaker of implantable lens for myopia\n\n\nStitch Fix / SFIX\n44.38\n-24\nNM\n1.9\n1890.3\n1.7\n30.0\n4.8\nData-driven subscription clothing firm\n\n\nTrex / TREX\n105.94\n27\n51.9\n10.5\n43.6\n9.3\n18.8\n12.2\nTop maker of synthetic wood decking\n\n\nUpwork / UPWK\n44.31\n28\nNM\n11.4\n556.8\n9.2\nNA\n5.7\nOnline clearinghouse for free-lancers\n\n\n\nE=Estimate. BAH estimates are for fiscal years ending March 2022 and March 23. SFIX estimates are for fiscal years ending July 2022 and July 2023. NM=Not Meaningful. NA=Not Available. *The annual EPS growth the company can sustain over the next 3-5 years.\nSource: FactSet\nAmedisys(AMED), a provider of home healthcare and hospice services, has a national footprint in a still-fragmented business.\n“There is going to be massive consolidation of the industry” predicts Dan Cole, a manager of the Columbia Small-Cap Growth fund. “Healthcare is moving to the home.”\nAmedisys stock is up more than tenfold in the past decade. But the shares, around $185, are off nearly 30% after the company recently cut 2021 financial guidance, citing Covid-related staffing and cost issues, mostly in acquired hospice operations. The 2021 earnings estimate is now $6.13 a share, down from nearly $7. The stock trades for 30 times projected 2021 profits. Cole says that the company remains capable of generating 10% annual gains in earnings per share.\nAmyris(AMRS) is a leader in synthetic biology. It fans say its opportunity is to supplant, in an eco-friendly way, a range of products now made from petrochemicals, animals, and plants.\nUsing genetically re-engineered yeast and sugar cane, Amyris produces such things as squalane, a high-end moisturizer formerly made from shark livers; vanillin, the flavoring for vanilla; and a no-calorie sweetener normally derived from plants. The stock trades around $13.\nBarron’s wrote favorably on the company in July. Amyris sees sales reaching $2 billion by 2025, up from an estimated $400 million this year, driven by its consumer brands.\n“The world needs clean chemistry, and Amyris is the point on the spear to create it,” says Randy Baron, a portfolio manager at Pinnacle Associates, which owns Amyris shares. He thinks they could hit $75 by the end of 2022.\nBooz Allen Hamilton Holding(BAH) is an important consultant to the Defense Department and other agencies. The U.S. government accounted for 97% of its revenue in its latest fiscal year. Booz Allen has built robust ties to the government over the years by providing an array of services, like cybersecurity. Its stock trades around $81, for a 1.8% yield.\n“It has built a strong, partnership-like culture and has a long record of steady growth,” says Josh Spencer, manager of the T. Rowe Price New Horizons fund. He sees Booz Allen as capable of generating 9% to 10% annual growth in revenue and yearly gains of 15% to 16% in earnings, in line with its historical performance. The stock is off 20% from its peak of $100, amid concerns about more restrained military spending. Spencer sees the pullback as a buying opportunity, with the stock valued at less than 20 times earnings.\nJ.B. Hunt Transport Services(JBHT) is a leader in intermodal freight, which involves the fuel-efficient movement of trucks over rail lines. It has been one of the most successful trucking companies. Its stock has risen 30-fold over the past 20 years, to a recent $173. “It has an incredible franchise,” says Henry Ellenbogen, chief investment officer at Durable Capital Partners and a member of the Barron’s Roundtable.\nJ.B. Hunt’s relationship with the Burlington Northern Santa Fe railroad gives it a strong position in intermodal freight, he notes. J.B. Hunt also has a growing business taking over the trucking operations of smaller companies. And it is involved in digital freight brokerage—matching truckers with shipping customers.\nEllenbogen says the stock is reasonable at 22 times estimated 2022 profits, given a mid-teens annual growth outlook for earnings.\nMarriott Vacations Worldwide(VAC) is one of the top companies in the timeshare industry. It has 700,000 owners, a resilient business model with significant revenue from fees, and more exposure than its peers to luxury properties in places including Hawaii and Orlando, Fla.\n“It has the best customer base, with the highest spending and an impeccable balance sheet,” says David Baron, a manager of the Baron Focused Growth fund. Marriott Vacations, whose shares recently were trading around $145, should reinstate its dividend later this year, he adds.\nThe shares, Baron argues, are cheap at a 11% free-cash-flow yield, based on 2022 estimates. He says that the stock, little changed since 2018, could produce 20% annual returns for shareholders in the coming years.\nSiteOne Landscape Supply(SITE) is the country’s top supplier of landscaping products, with ample opportunity to expand, given that it has just a 13% market share in a highly fragmented industry.\n\n“It’s growing organically and has lots of acquisition opportunities,” says Columbia’s Cole, who considers the company to be capable of 10% to 15% annual revenue growth.\nThe stock, around $197, has a rich valuation, trading for 43 times projected 2022 earnings of $4.54 a share.\nStaar Surgical(STAA) has developed an implantable lens to correct myopia (nearsightedness). That addresses a potentially huge market, given the rising global incidence of that vision problem. The company expects the lens, which has been available in Europe and Asia for at least five years, to be on the U.S. market in the fourth quarter, pending Food and Drug Administration approval.\n“It could do substantial volumes,’’ says Doug Brodie, a global manager at Baillie Gifford. “It’s early in a journey and is largely devoid of competition.”\nLenses for both eyes can be implanted in less than an hour, and they don’t involve the removal of the natural lenses. The wholesale cost in the U.S. could be around $1,000 per lens.\nAt a recent $138, Staar shares are richly valued at more than 20 times projected 2022 sales and 140 times estimated 2022 earnings. But the market opportunity is enormous: Some five billion people worldwide could have myopia by 2050.\nStitch Fix(SFIX) has developed a subscription service for clothing, shoes, and other accessories and boasts over four million customers.\n“This could be the Nordstrom of the future,” says Mario Cibelli, chief investment officer at Marathon Partners Equity Management, a Stitch Fix holder. “This a potentially huge market and nobody is addressing it in the same way.” Using a staff of 6,000 personal stylists and lots of data, Stitch Fix seeks to identify subscriber tastes to generate high satisfaction and limit returns on packages sent at intervals and determined by subscribers.\nIts shares, around $44, are down 60% from their level earlier in the year, on investors’ worries about potential churn and the business’s ultimate profitability.\nYet Cibelli sees revenue growth of 20%-plus annually, opportunities outside its current U.S. and U.K. markets, and a potentially very profitable business in two to three years.\nTrex(TREX) is the top producer of a high-end wood alternative for decks that comes from 95% recycled material, making it an eco-friendly housing play. The shares, at $105, trade for 43 times projected 2022 earnings.\nT. Rowe Price’s Spencer views Trex as worth the price, based on his view that it can generate sustainable annual revenue growth of 15% to 20%. Earnings are expected to climb by about 20% in 2022 and at a similar pace in the following years. “If you roll the clock forward three years, it doesn’t look as expensive,” he says.\nUpwork(UPWK), an online marketplace for freelance workers, is favored by Baillie Gifford’s Brodie, who says it offers a play on the greater acceptance of freelancers by businesses.\nThe shares, recently around $44, aren’t cheap. Upwork is valued at $5.7 billion, or more than 10 times this year’s projected sales of nearly $500 million. It operates at a slight loss.\nThe investment case is about rapid sales growth leading to ample earnings. Sales are expected to rise by 30%-plus this year and 25% for 2022.\n“Freelancers are more accepted by small to midsize business, but they’ve been frowned on by the HR departments at large businesses,” Brodie says. Upwork aims to change that perception by vetting its freelancers and by offering thousands of skill sets. “Upwork could become a trusted partner for an increasing number of enterprise-grade partners,” he says.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TREX":0.9,"BAH":0.9,"VAC":0.9,"SFIX":0.9,"STAA":0.9,"AMED":0.9,"AMRS":0.9,"JBHT":0.9,"SITE":0.9,"UPWK":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":707,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":822236974,"gmtCreate":1634133690364,"gmtModify":1634133690425,"author":{"id":"3583806200035507","authorId":"3583806200035507","name":"HuiBing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583806200035507","authorIdStr":"3583806200035507"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/822236974","repostId":"1113013066","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1113013066","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1634132611,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1113013066?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-13 21:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Sea Limited stock surged 4% in morning trading<blockquote>Sea Limited股价早盘飙升4%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113013066","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Sea Limited stock surged 4% in morning trading.\n\nThe worldwide e-commerce market reports sales could","content":"<p>Sea Limited stock surged 4% in morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>Sea Limited股价早盘飙升4%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fddc716b0b77f80b45903abab0f71a7\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The worldwide e-commerce market reports sales could hit nearly $5 trillion in 2021. The migration of commerce from brick-and-mortar stores to the internet remains&nbsp;one&nbsp;of the most important growth stories of this era. Internet company&nbsp;<b>Sea Limited</b>(NYSE:SE) has emerged as the e-commerce leader in Southeast Asia while expanding into new markets such as Latin America, India, and Europe.</p><p><blockquote>全球电子商务市场报告称，2021年销售额可能达到近5万亿美元。商业从实体店向互联网的迁移仍然是这个时代最重要的增长故事之一。互联网公司<b>海有限公司</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SE）已成为东南亚电子商务的领导者，同时扩展到拉丁美洲、印度和欧洲等新市场。</blockquote></p><p> The company does more than e-commerce, tying successful gaming and digital payments businesses into its customer base. Sea Limited's Garena division owns FreeFire, the world's most popular mobile game.</p><p><blockquote>该公司不仅仅做电子商务，还将成功的游戏和数字支付业务与其客户群联系起来。Sea Limited的Garena部门拥有世界上最受欢迎的手机游戏FreeFire。</blockquote></p><p> Sea Limited has reported its 2021 second quarter, where revenue came in at $2.3 billion, a 159% increase year over year. An important thing to note is that the company, although reporting a net loss for the period, is seeing an increase in its number of active and quarterly paying users. It's just getting started in its new markets, so growth could easily continue to be rampant in the years ahead, forging a pathway to profitability.</p><p><blockquote>Sea Limited公布2021年第二季度收入为23亿美元，同比增长159%。值得注意的重要一点是，尽管该公司报告期内出现净亏损，但其活跃用户和季度付费用户数量正在增加。它刚刚进入新市场，因此未来几年增长很容易继续猖獗，从而开辟一条盈利之路。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sea Limited stock surged 4% in morning trading<blockquote>Sea Limited股价早盘飙升4%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSea Limited stock surged 4% in morning trading<blockquote>Sea Limited股价早盘飙升4%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-10-13 21:43</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Sea Limited stock surged 4% in morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>Sea Limited股价早盘飙升4%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fddc716b0b77f80b45903abab0f71a7\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The worldwide e-commerce market reports sales could hit nearly $5 trillion in 2021. The migration of commerce from brick-and-mortar stores to the internet remains&nbsp;one&nbsp;of the most important growth stories of this era. Internet company&nbsp;<b>Sea Limited</b>(NYSE:SE) has emerged as the e-commerce leader in Southeast Asia while expanding into new markets such as Latin America, India, and Europe.</p><p><blockquote>全球电子商务市场报告称，2021年销售额可能达到近5万亿美元。商业从实体店向互联网的迁移仍然是这个时代最重要的增长故事之一。互联网公司<b>海有限公司</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SE）已成为东南亚电子商务的领导者，同时扩展到拉丁美洲、印度和欧洲等新市场。</blockquote></p><p> The company does more than e-commerce, tying successful gaming and digital payments businesses into its customer base. Sea Limited's Garena division owns FreeFire, the world's most popular mobile game.</p><p><blockquote>该公司不仅仅做电子商务，还将成功的游戏和数字支付业务与其客户群联系起来。Sea Limited的Garena部门拥有世界上最受欢迎的手机游戏FreeFire。</blockquote></p><p> Sea Limited has reported its 2021 second quarter, where revenue came in at $2.3 billion, a 159% increase year over year. An important thing to note is that the company, although reporting a net loss for the period, is seeing an increase in its number of active and quarterly paying users. It's just getting started in its new markets, so growth could easily continue to be rampant in the years ahead, forging a pathway to profitability.</p><p><blockquote>Sea Limited公布2021年第二季度收入为23亿美元，同比增长159%。值得注意的重要一点是，尽管该公司报告期内出现净亏损，但其活跃用户和季度付费用户数量正在增加。它刚刚进入新市场，因此未来几年增长很容易继续猖獗，从而开辟一条盈利之路。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1113013066","content_text":"Sea Limited stock surged 4% in morning trading.\n\nThe worldwide e-commerce market reports sales could hit nearly $5 trillion in 2021. The migration of commerce from brick-and-mortar stores to the internet remains one of the most important growth stories of this era. Internet company Sea Limited(NYSE:SE) has emerged as the e-commerce leader in Southeast Asia while expanding into new markets such as Latin America, India, and Europe.\nThe company does more than e-commerce, tying successful gaming and digital payments businesses into its customer base. Sea Limited's Garena division owns FreeFire, the world's most popular mobile game.\nSea Limited has reported its 2021 second quarter, where revenue came in at $2.3 billion, a 159% increase year over year. An important thing to note is that the company, although reporting a net loss for the period, is seeing an increase in its number of active and quarterly paying users. It's just getting started in its new markets, so growth could easily continue to be rampant in the years ahead, forging a pathway to profitability.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2803,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":881531768,"gmtCreate":1631359550054,"gmtModify":1631891625322,"author":{"id":"3583806200035507","authorId":"3583806200035507","name":"HuiBing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583806200035507","authorIdStr":"3583806200035507"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/881531768","repostId":"1147045390","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147045390","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631321547,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1147045390?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-11 08:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Apple’s Risk Is Limited<blockquote>为什么苹果的风险有限</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147045390","media":"Barrons","summary":"Apple faces real, but limited, risk to its revenue and profits from Friday’s ruling that requires it to allow developers to offer alternative payment methods for purchases made in apps downloaded through the Apple app store.In a case filed by Fortnite publisher Epic Games, U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers issued a permanent injunction that requires Apple  to allow developers the option to include links to alternative payment methods in their apps. Apple’s own payment system takes a 30%","content":"<p>Apple faces real, but limited, risk to its revenue and profits from Friday’s ruling that requires it to allow developers to offer alternative payment methods for purchases made in apps downloaded through the Apple app store.</p><p><blockquote>周五的裁决要求苹果允许开发者为通过苹果应用商店下载的应用程序中的购买提供替代支付方式，这给其收入和利润带来了真实但有限的风险。</blockquote></p><p> In a case filed by Fortnite publisher Epic Games, U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers issued a permanent injunction that requires Apple (ticker: AAPL) to allow developers the option to include links to alternative payment methods in their apps. Apple’s own payment system takes a 30% cut from large developers.</p><p><blockquote>在堡垒之夜发行商Epic Games提起的案件中，美国地区法官Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers发布了一项永久禁令，要求苹果（股票代码：AAPL）允许开发者选择在其应用程序中包含替代支付方式的链接。苹果自己的支付系统从大型开发商那里收取30%的提成。</blockquote></p><p> Data from the app tracker SensorTower shows that in calendar 2020, Apple had overall revenue from the App Store of $72.3 billion, generating an estimated $21.7 billion in fees, or about 7% of Apple’s overall revenues. That includes $21 billion in spending in the U.S., generating about $6.3 billion in fees, or about 2% of annualized revenues.</p><p><blockquote>应用追踪器SensorTower的数据显示，2020年，苹果从App Store获得的总收入为723亿美元，产生的费用估计为217亿美元，约占苹果总收入的7%。其中包括在美国的210亿美元支出，产生约63亿美元的费用，约占年收入的2%。</blockquote></p><p> SensorTower estimates that mobile-game spending in the App Store in calendar 2020 was $47.6 billion, generating $14.3 billion in fees, or a little under 5% of Apple’s total revenues.</p><p><blockquote>SensorTower估计，2020年App Store中的手机游戏支出为476亿美元，产生143亿美元的费用，略低于苹果总收入的5%。</blockquote></p><p> Gene Munster, managing director of the venture firm Loup Capital and a former sell-side analyst with a long history of tracking Apple, estimated that the App Store accounts for about 14% of the company’s profits. But he sees limited risk from Friday’s ruling.</p><p><blockquote>风险投资公司Loup Capital董事总经理、长期跟踪苹果的前卖方分析师吉恩·蒙斯特(Gene Munster)估计，App Store约占该公司利润的14%。但他认为周五裁决的风险有限。</blockquote></p><p> Munster thinks most app developers will stay inside of the Apple system. He sees “at most” a 2% headwind to overall revenue, and a potential 4% hit to profits.</p><p><blockquote>蒙斯特认为大多数应用程序开发人员将留在苹果系统内。他认为整体收入“最多”会受到2%的阻力，利润可能会受到4%的打击。</blockquote></p><p> “After the first year of these changes, app store growth rates will return to normal,” he said. “Bottom line, it’s at most a one-year headwind and does not change the big picture of where Apple is going over the next 5 years.”</p><p><blockquote>“在这些变化的第一年之后，app store的增长率将恢复正常，”他说。“最重要的是，这最多是一年的逆风，不会改变苹果未来5年的发展方向。”</blockquote></p><p> Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani said in a research note that the ruling is a setback for Apple, but that the eventual impact is likely to be manageable, given Apple has alternative ways to generate revenue from the store, including its growing in-store ad business. And he noted that Apple actually got a win on a bigger issue in the case: The judge rejected Epic’s assertion that the App Store is an illegal monopoly. Daryanani estimated the risk to Apple’s per-share earnings at 2% to 4%.</p><p><blockquote>Evercore ISI分析师Amit Daryanani在一份研究报告中表示，这一裁决对苹果来说是一次挫折，但鉴于苹果有其他方式从商店创收，包括其不断增长的店内广告业务，最终的影响可能是可控的。他指出，苹果实际上在该案中的一个更大问题上取得了胜利：法官驳回了Epic关于App Store是非法垄断的主张。Daryanani估计苹果每股收益面临的风险为2%至4%。</blockquote></p><p> Wedbush analyst Dan Ives told&nbsp;<i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;he thinks the worst-case scenario is a 3% to 4% hit to revenues, describing the risk as a “rounding error.” While Ives said the Street had expected an across-the-board win for Apple, the mixed decision removes an overhang on the stock and that investors are likely relieved to put the issue to rest.</p><p><blockquote>Wedbush分析师Dan Ives告诉<i>巴伦周刊</i>他认为最坏的情况是收入受到3%至4%的打击，并将这种风险描述为“舍入误差”。虽然Ives表示，华尔街原本预计苹果会全面获胜，但这一喜忧参半的决定消除了该股的悬念，投资者可能会因为解决这个问题而松一口气。</blockquote></p><p> The ruling is more a positive for companies like&nbsp;Spotify Technology&nbsp;and&nbsp;Match Group&nbsp;than it is a negative for Apple, he said. Apple stock fell 3.3% to $148.97&nbsp;on&nbsp;Friday, while Spotify and March gained 0.7% and&nbsp;4.2%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，这一裁决对Spotify Technology和Match Group等公司来说更多的是积极的，而不是对苹果的负面影响。苹果股价周五下跌3.3%，至148.97美元，Spotify和March分别上涨0.7%和4.</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Apple’s Risk Is Limited<blockquote>为什么苹果的风险有限</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Apple’s Risk Is Limited<blockquote>为什么苹果的风险有限</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-11 08:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple faces real, but limited, risk to its revenue and profits from Friday’s ruling that requires it to allow developers to offer alternative payment methods for purchases made in apps downloaded through the Apple app store.</p><p><blockquote>周五的裁决要求苹果允许开发者为通过苹果应用商店下载的应用程序中的购买提供替代支付方式，这给其收入和利润带来了真实但有限的风险。</blockquote></p><p> In a case filed by Fortnite publisher Epic Games, U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers issued a permanent injunction that requires Apple (ticker: AAPL) to allow developers the option to include links to alternative payment methods in their apps. Apple’s own payment system takes a 30% cut from large developers.</p><p><blockquote>在堡垒之夜发行商Epic Games提起的案件中，美国地区法官Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers发布了一项永久禁令，要求苹果（股票代码：AAPL）允许开发者选择在其应用程序中包含替代支付方式的链接。苹果自己的支付系统从大型开发商那里收取30%的提成。</blockquote></p><p> Data from the app tracker SensorTower shows that in calendar 2020, Apple had overall revenue from the App Store of $72.3 billion, generating an estimated $21.7 billion in fees, or about 7% of Apple’s overall revenues. That includes $21 billion in spending in the U.S., generating about $6.3 billion in fees, or about 2% of annualized revenues.</p><p><blockquote>应用追踪器SensorTower的数据显示，2020年，苹果从App Store获得的总收入为723亿美元，产生的费用估计为217亿美元，约占苹果总收入的7%。其中包括在美国的210亿美元支出，产生约63亿美元的费用，约占年收入的2%。</blockquote></p><p> SensorTower estimates that mobile-game spending in the App Store in calendar 2020 was $47.6 billion, generating $14.3 billion in fees, or a little under 5% of Apple’s total revenues.</p><p><blockquote>SensorTower估计，2020年App Store中的手机游戏支出为476亿美元，产生143亿美元的费用，略低于苹果总收入的5%。</blockquote></p><p> Gene Munster, managing director of the venture firm Loup Capital and a former sell-side analyst with a long history of tracking Apple, estimated that the App Store accounts for about 14% of the company’s profits. But he sees limited risk from Friday’s ruling.</p><p><blockquote>风险投资公司Loup Capital董事总经理、长期跟踪苹果的前卖方分析师吉恩·蒙斯特(Gene Munster)估计，App Store约占该公司利润的14%。但他认为周五裁决的风险有限。</blockquote></p><p> Munster thinks most app developers will stay inside of the Apple system. He sees “at most” a 2% headwind to overall revenue, and a potential 4% hit to profits.</p><p><blockquote>蒙斯特认为大多数应用程序开发人员将留在苹果系统内。他认为整体收入“最多”会受到2%的阻力，利润可能会受到4%的打击。</blockquote></p><p> “After the first year of these changes, app store growth rates will return to normal,” he said. “Bottom line, it’s at most a one-year headwind and does not change the big picture of where Apple is going over the next 5 years.”</p><p><blockquote>“在这些变化的第一年之后，app store的增长率将恢复正常，”他说。“最重要的是，这最多是一年的逆风，不会改变苹果未来5年的发展方向。”</blockquote></p><p> Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani said in a research note that the ruling is a setback for Apple, but that the eventual impact is likely to be manageable, given Apple has alternative ways to generate revenue from the store, including its growing in-store ad business. And he noted that Apple actually got a win on a bigger issue in the case: The judge rejected Epic’s assertion that the App Store is an illegal monopoly. Daryanani estimated the risk to Apple’s per-share earnings at 2% to 4%.</p><p><blockquote>Evercore ISI分析师Amit Daryanani在一份研究报告中表示，这一裁决对苹果来说是一次挫折，但鉴于苹果有其他方式从商店创收，包括其不断增长的店内广告业务，最终的影响可能是可控的。他指出，苹果实际上在该案中的一个更大问题上取得了胜利：法官驳回了Epic关于App Store是非法垄断的主张。Daryanani估计苹果每股收益面临的风险为2%至4%。</blockquote></p><p> Wedbush analyst Dan Ives told&nbsp;<i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;he thinks the worst-case scenario is a 3% to 4% hit to revenues, describing the risk as a “rounding error.” While Ives said the Street had expected an across-the-board win for Apple, the mixed decision removes an overhang on the stock and that investors are likely relieved to put the issue to rest.</p><p><blockquote>Wedbush分析师Dan Ives告诉<i>巴伦周刊</i>他认为最坏的情况是收入受到3%至4%的打击，并将这种风险描述为“舍入误差”。虽然Ives表示，华尔街原本预计苹果会全面获胜，但这一喜忧参半的决定消除了该股的悬念，投资者可能会因为解决这个问题而松一口气。</blockquote></p><p> The ruling is more a positive for companies like&nbsp;Spotify Technology&nbsp;and&nbsp;Match Group&nbsp;than it is a negative for Apple, he said. Apple stock fell 3.3% to $148.97&nbsp;on&nbsp;Friday, while Spotify and March gained 0.7% and&nbsp;4.2%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，这一裁决对Spotify Technology和Match Group等公司来说更多的是积极的，而不是对苹果的负面影响。苹果股价周五下跌3.3%，至148.97美元，Spotify和March分别上涨0.7%和4.</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-app-store-epic-51631304007?mod=hp_LEAD_1_B_2\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-app-store-epic-51631304007?mod=hp_LEAD_1_B_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147045390","content_text":"Apple faces real, but limited, risk to its revenue and profits from Friday’s ruling that requires it to allow developers to offer alternative payment methods for purchases made in apps downloaded through the Apple app store.\nIn a case filed by Fortnite publisher Epic Games, U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers issued a permanent injunction that requires Apple (ticker: AAPL) to allow developers the option to include links to alternative payment methods in their apps. Apple’s own payment system takes a 30% cut from large developers.\nData from the app tracker SensorTower shows that in calendar 2020, Apple had overall revenue from the App Store of $72.3 billion, generating an estimated $21.7 billion in fees, or about 7% of Apple’s overall revenues. That includes $21 billion in spending in the U.S., generating about $6.3 billion in fees, or about 2% of annualized revenues.\nSensorTower estimates that mobile-game spending in the App Store in calendar 2020 was $47.6 billion, generating $14.3 billion in fees, or a little under 5% of Apple’s total revenues.\nGene Munster, managing director of the venture firm Loup Capital and a former sell-side analyst with a long history of tracking Apple, estimated that the App Store accounts for about 14% of the company’s profits. But he sees limited risk from Friday’s ruling.\nMunster thinks most app developers will stay inside of the Apple system. He sees “at most” a 2% headwind to overall revenue, and a potential 4% hit to profits.\n“After the first year of these changes, app store growth rates will return to normal,” he said. “Bottom line, it’s at most a one-year headwind and does not change the big picture of where Apple is going over the next 5 years.”\nEvercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani said in a research note that the ruling is a setback for Apple, but that the eventual impact is likely to be manageable, given Apple has alternative ways to generate revenue from the store, including its growing in-store ad business. And he noted that Apple actually got a win on a bigger issue in the case: The judge rejected Epic’s assertion that the App Store is an illegal monopoly. Daryanani estimated the risk to Apple’s per-share earnings at 2% to 4%.\nWedbush analyst Dan Ives told Barron’s he thinks the worst-case scenario is a 3% to 4% hit to revenues, describing the risk as a “rounding error.” While Ives said the Street had expected an across-the-board win for Apple, the mixed decision removes an overhang on the stock and that investors are likely relieved to put the issue to rest.\nThe ruling is more a positive for companies like Spotify Technology and Match Group than it is a negative for Apple, he said. Apple stock fell 3.3% to $148.97 on Friday, while Spotify and March gained 0.7% and 4.2%, respectively.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2328,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}