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TANKH888

TANKH888

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2021-09-03

DOW is going for 40000 and Nasdaq is going for 20000 to make investors excited...

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2021-07-02

Still trying for a strong support

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2021-07-01

That is why the share price went up...

NIO delivered 8,083 vehicles in June 2021, increasing by 116.1% YOY<blockquote>蔚来2021年6月交付8,083辆汽车，同比增长116.1%</blockquote>

2021-06-30

Pullback is good and not crash..

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2021-06-30

Dow going for 35000 and Nasdaq going for 15000..

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2021-06-29

Great. Push higher 👍

The S&P 500 index rose to 4300, a new all-time high.<blockquote>标普500指数升至4300点，创历史新高。</blockquote>

2021-06-29

Price need to observe carefully

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2021-06-28

Agreed..

Amazon: Good Stock, Not Good Price<blockquote>亚马逊：库存好，价格不好</blockquote>

2021-06-28

This will make Crypto to fall further..

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2021-06-27

Equally good..

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2021-06-27

Good...

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2021-06-27

Time will tell

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2021-06-27

Good test for the stock

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2021-06-26

Stand aside and watch.. Crypto is for those with deep pocket...

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2021-06-25

Yes.. Dow going for 35000 and Nasdaq going for 15000

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2021-06-25

This is bigger than Grab..

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2021-06-25

Both are good atock

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2021-06-24

Agreed..

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2021-06-24

Good...

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2021-06-23

Let's see what is next. Stand aside and observe

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is going for 40000 and Nasdaq is going for 20000 to make investors excited...&nbsp;","listText":"DOW is going for 40000 and Nasdaq is going for 20000 to make investors excited...&nbsp;","text":"DOW is going for 40000 and Nasdaq is going for 20000 to make investors excited...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/815962260","repostId":"2164829818","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2047,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":158753273,"gmtCreate":1625183494092,"gmtModify":1631890279798,"author":{"id":"3583660884205170","authorId":"3583660884205170","name":"TANKH888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59dee1a92cf748c217b1e0a4e79ec5e8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583660884205170","idStr":"3583660884205170"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Still trying for a 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up...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/158975806","repostId":"1114101721","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1114101721","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1625126532,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1114101721?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-01 16:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO delivered 8,083 vehicles in June 2021, increasing by 116.1% YOY<blockquote>蔚来2021年6月交付8,083辆汽车，同比增长116.1%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114101721","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"NIO delivered 21,896 vehicles in the three months ended June 2021, increasing by 111.9% year-over-year. Cumulative deliveries of the ES8, ES6 and EC6 as of June 30, 2021 reached 117,597. NIO Inc., a pioneer and a leading manufacturer of premium smart electric vehicles in China, today announced its June and second quarter 2021 delivery results.NIO delivered 8,083 vehicles in June 2021, a new monthly record representing a robust 116.1% year-over-year growth. The deliveries consisted of 1,498 ES8s,","content":"<p><ul>  <li><b><i>NIO delivered 8,083 vehicles in June 2021, increasing by 116.1% year-over-year</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>NIO delivered 21,896 vehicles in the three months ended June 2021, increasing by 111.9% year-over-year</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Cumulative deliveries of the ES8, ES6 and EC6 as of June 30, 2021 reached 117,597</i></b></li> </ul> NIO Inc., a pioneer and a leading manufacturer of premium smart electric vehicles in China, today announced its June and second quarter 2021 delivery results.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b><i>2021年6月，蔚来交付汽车8,083辆，同比增长116.1%</i></b></li><li><b><i>截至二零二一年六月三个月，蔚来交付21,896辆汽车，同比增长111.9%</i></b></li><li><b><i>截至2021年6月30日，ES8、ES6和EC6的累计交付量达到117,597辆</i></b></li></ul>蔚来是中国高端智能电动汽车的先驱和领先制造商，今天公布了2021年6月和第二季度的交付业绩。</blockquote></p><p> NIO delivered 8,083 vehicles in June 2021, a new monthly record representing a robust 116.1% year-over-year growth. The deliveries consisted of 1,498 ES8s, the Company’s six-seater or seven-seater flagship premium smart electric SUV, 3,755 ES6s, the Company’s five-seater high-performance premium smart electric SUV, and 2,830 EC6s, the Company’s five-seater premium smart electric coupe SUV. NIO delivered 21,896 vehicles in the three months ended June 2021, a new quarterly record representing a strong increase of 111.9% year-over-year. As of June 30, 2021, cumulative deliveries of the ES8, ES6 and EC6 reached 117,597 vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来在2021年6月交付了8,083辆汽车，创下了新的月度记录，同比强劲增长116.1%。交付的车辆包括 1498 辆 ES8（该公司的六座或七座旗舰高端智能电动 SUV）、3755 辆 ES6（该公司的五座高性能高端智能电动 SUV）和 2830 辆 EC6（该公司的五座高端智能电动轿跑车 SUV）。截至2021年6月的三个月，蔚来交付了21,896辆汽车，创下新的季度记录，同比强劲增长111.9%。截至2021年6月30日，ES8、ES6和EC6的累计交付量达到117,597辆。</blockquote></p><p> NIO&nbsp;stock&nbsp;rose&nbsp;0.7%&nbsp;in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来股价在盘前交易中上涨 0.7%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/649d5139ca369d18c052a809e36398a5\" tg-width=\"1302\" tg-height=\"663\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO delivered 8,083 vehicles in June 2021, increasing by 116.1% YOY<blockquote>蔚来2021年6月交付8,083辆汽车，同比增长116.1%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO delivered 8,083 vehicles in June 2021, increasing by 116.1% YOY<blockquote>蔚来2021年6月交付8,083辆汽车，同比增长116.1%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-01 16:02</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><ul>  <li><b><i>NIO delivered 8,083 vehicles in June 2021, increasing by 116.1% year-over-year</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>NIO delivered 21,896 vehicles in the three months ended June 2021, increasing by 111.9% year-over-year</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Cumulative deliveries of the ES8, ES6 and EC6 as of June 30, 2021 reached 117,597</i></b></li> </ul> NIO Inc., a pioneer and a leading manufacturer of premium smart electric vehicles in China, today announced its June and second quarter 2021 delivery results.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b><i>2021年6月，蔚来交付汽车8,083辆，同比增长116.1%</i></b></li><li><b><i>截至二零二一年六月三个月，蔚来交付21,896辆汽车，同比增长111.9%</i></b></li><li><b><i>截至2021年6月30日，ES8、ES6和EC6的累计交付量达到117,597辆</i></b></li></ul>蔚来是中国高端智能电动汽车的先驱和领先制造商，今天公布了2021年6月和第二季度的交付业绩。</blockquote></p><p> NIO delivered 8,083 vehicles in June 2021, a new monthly record representing a robust 116.1% year-over-year growth. The deliveries consisted of 1,498 ES8s, the Company’s six-seater or seven-seater flagship premium smart electric SUV, 3,755 ES6s, the Company’s five-seater high-performance premium smart electric SUV, and 2,830 EC6s, the Company’s five-seater premium smart electric coupe SUV. NIO delivered 21,896 vehicles in the three months ended June 2021, a new quarterly record representing a strong increase of 111.9% year-over-year. As of June 30, 2021, cumulative deliveries of the ES8, ES6 and EC6 reached 117,597 vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来在2021年6月交付了8,083辆汽车，创下了新的月度记录，同比强劲增长116.1%。交付的车辆包括 1498 辆 ES8（该公司的六座或七座旗舰高端智能电动 SUV）、3755 辆 ES6（该公司的五座高性能高端智能电动 SUV）和 2830 辆 EC6（该公司的五座高端智能电动轿跑车 SUV）。截至2021年6月的三个月，蔚来交付了21,896辆汽车，创下新的季度记录，同比强劲增长111.9%。截至2021年6月30日，ES8、ES6和EC6的累计交付量达到117,597辆。</blockquote></p><p> NIO&nbsp;stock&nbsp;rose&nbsp;0.7%&nbsp;in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来股价在盘前交易中上涨 0.7%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/649d5139ca369d18c052a809e36398a5\" tg-width=\"1302\" tg-height=\"663\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114101721","content_text":"NIO delivered 8,083 vehicles in June 2021, increasing by 116.1% year-over-year\nNIO delivered 21,896 vehicles in the three months ended June 2021, increasing by 111.9% year-over-year\nCumulative deliveries of the ES8, ES6 and EC6 as of June 30, 2021 reached 117,597\n\nNIO Inc., a pioneer and a leading manufacturer of premium smart electric vehicles in China, today announced its June and second quarter 2021 delivery results.\nNIO delivered 8,083 vehicles in June 2021, a new monthly record representing a robust 116.1% year-over-year growth. The deliveries consisted of 1,498 ES8s, the Company’s six-seater or seven-seater flagship premium smart electric SUV, 3,755 ES6s, the Company’s five-seater high-performance premium smart electric SUV, and 2,830 EC6s, the Company’s five-seater premium smart electric coupe SUV. NIO delivered 21,896 vehicles in the three months ended June 2021, a new quarterly record representing a strong increase of 111.9% year-over-year. As of June 30, 2021, cumulative deliveries of the ES8, ES6 and EC6 reached 117,597 vehicles.\nNIO stock rose 0.7% in premarket trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3876,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153323850,"gmtCreate":1625010761870,"gmtModify":1631890279826,"author":{"id":"3583660884205170","authorId":"3583660884205170","name":"TANKH888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59dee1a92cf748c217b1e0a4e79ec5e8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583660884205170","idStr":"3583660884205170"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Pullback is good and not crash..&nbsp;","listText":"Pullback is good and not crash..&nbsp;","text":"Pullback is good and not crash..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":11,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/153323850","repostId":"1174683579","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1698,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153368821,"gmtCreate":1625010551563,"gmtModify":1631884483759,"author":{"id":"3583660884205170","authorId":"3583660884205170","name":"TANKH888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59dee1a92cf748c217b1e0a4e79ec5e8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583660884205170","idStr":"3583660884205170"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Dow going for 35000 and Nasdaq going for 15000..","listText":"Dow going for 35000 and Nasdaq going for 15000..","text":"Dow going for 35000 and Nasdaq going for 15000..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/153368821","repostId":"1122418477","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2069,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":159447849,"gmtCreate":1624978263781,"gmtModify":1631890279833,"author":{"id":"3583660884205170","authorId":"3583660884205170","name":"TANKH888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59dee1a92cf748c217b1e0a4e79ec5e8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583660884205170","idStr":"3583660884205170"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great. Push higher 👍","listText":"Great. Push higher 👍","text":"Great. Push higher 👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/159447849","repostId":"1155367467","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155367467","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624977461,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1155367467?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-29 22:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The S&P 500 index rose to 4300, a new all-time high.<blockquote>标普500指数升至4300点，创历史新高。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155367467","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"The S&P 500 index hit a record high shortly after the open on Tuesday, lifted by big U.S. banks, whi","content":"<p>The S&amp;P 500 index hit a record high shortly after the open on Tuesday, lifted by big U.S. banks, while investors looked to consumer confidence data against the backdrop of rising inflation and a spike in COVID-19 cases in Asia.</p><p><blockquote>受美国大银行提振，标普500指数周二开盘后不久创下历史新高，而投资者则在通胀上升和亚洲新冠肺炎病例激增的背景下关注消费者信心数据。</blockquote></p><p> At 10:35 a.m., the S&amp;P 500 gained 0.5%&nbsp;to record high of 4,300.52. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.48% to 34,447.68, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.04% to 14,505.21.</p><p><blockquote>上午 10:35，标普500上涨 0.5%，至 4,300.52 点的历史新高。道琼斯工业平均指数上涨0.48%，至34,447.68点；纳斯达克综合指数上涨0.04%，至14,505.21点。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e88a411c3ba9c78717a1e724ec2041b\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The S&P 500 index rose to 4300, a new all-time high.<blockquote>标普500指数升至4300点，创历史新高。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe S&P 500 index rose to 4300, a new all-time high.<blockquote>标普500指数升至4300点，创历史新高。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-29 22:37</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 index hit a record high shortly after the open on Tuesday, lifted by big U.S. banks, while investors looked to consumer confidence data against the backdrop of rising inflation and a spike in COVID-19 cases in Asia.</p><p><blockquote>受美国大银行提振，标普500指数周二开盘后不久创下历史新高，而投资者则在通胀上升和亚洲新冠肺炎病例激增的背景下关注消费者信心数据。</blockquote></p><p> At 10:35 a.m., the S&amp;P 500 gained 0.5%&nbsp;to record high of 4,300.52. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.48% to 34,447.68, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.04% to 14,505.21.</p><p><blockquote>上午 10:35，标普500上涨 0.5%，至 4,300.52 点的历史新高。道琼斯工业平均指数上涨0.48%，至34,447.68点；纳斯达克综合指数上涨0.04%，至14,505.21点。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e88a411c3ba9c78717a1e724ec2041b\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155367467","content_text":"The S&P 500 index hit a record high shortly after the open on Tuesday, lifted by big U.S. banks, while investors looked to consumer confidence data against the backdrop of rising inflation and a spike in COVID-19 cases in Asia.\nAt 10:35 a.m., the S&P 500 gained 0.5% to record high of 4,300.52. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.48% to 34,447.68, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.04% to 14,505.21.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1869,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150552159,"gmtCreate":1624922649371,"gmtModify":1631890279853,"author":{"id":"3583660884205170","authorId":"3583660884205170","name":"TANKH888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59dee1a92cf748c217b1e0a4e79ec5e8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583660884205170","idStr":"3583660884205170"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Price need to observe carefully","listText":"Price need to observe carefully","text":"Price need to observe carefully","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150552159","repostId":"2147283798","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2258,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127326718,"gmtCreate":1624836676034,"gmtModify":1631890279862,"author":{"id":"3583660884205170","authorId":"3583660884205170","name":"TANKH888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59dee1a92cf748c217b1e0a4e79ec5e8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583660884205170","idStr":"3583660884205170"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Agreed..&nbsp;","listText":"Agreed..&nbsp;","text":"Agreed..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127326718","repostId":"1184001921","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184001921","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624763737,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1184001921?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-27 11:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon: Good Stock, Not Good Price<blockquote>亚马逊：库存好，价格不好</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184001921","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAmazon is one of the most innovative companies in the world today, leading the E-commerce i","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Amazon is one of the most innovative companies in the world today, leading the E-commerce industry and cloud computing services.</li>  <li>Unfortunately, it's a little overpriced. This is consistent with some of the other mega-cap stocks I've analyzed.</li>  <li>This article looks at what Amazon stock is most likely worth for us investors.</li>  <li>I hope you enjoy.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/451bc93115fb453c0fcb76434c40f7f4\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>亚马逊是当今世界最具创新精神的公司之一，引领着电子商务行业和云计算服务。</li><li>不幸的是，它的价格有点过高。这与我分析过的其他一些大型股一致。</li><li>本文着眼于亚马逊股票对美国投资者来说最有可能的价值。</li><li>我希望你喜欢。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>杂项摄影/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Today, Amazon (AMZN) seems to be a little overpriced based on my intrinsic value model.</p><p><blockquote>如今，根据我的内在价值模型，亚马逊（AMZN）似乎有点定价过高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82d937a2de3f0709088e1ab4548267b\" tg-width=\"371\" tg-height=\"260\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> You might have seen some of my other articles where I've bashed other popular stocks like Apple (AAPL) or Microsoft (MSFT). Well, I guess today it's Amazon's turn. I just try to share what I think companies are worth, and I've found that a lot of companies seem to be overpriced.</p><p><blockquote>您可能已经看过我的其他一些文章，其中我抨击了苹果 (AAPL) 或微软 (MSFT) 等其他热门股票。好吧，我想今天轮到亚马逊了。我只是试图分享我认为公司的价值，我发现很多公司似乎定价过高。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, I'll break down how I came up with Amazon's valuation. I know that there's tons of different opinions out there about Amazon, so I'll try to share the reasoning behind my valuation to help you make better investments in the future.</p><p><blockquote>在这篇文章中，我将分析我是如何得出亚马逊估值的。我知道关于亚马逊有很多不同的观点，所以我会尝试分享我的估值背后的原因，以帮助你在未来做出更好的投资。</blockquote></p><p> Something important you should know - I'm not an expert on Amazon, and I have a really difficult time valuing growth stocks. I really doubt that I have the ability to estimate a company's future growth. I made future growth estimates by looking at past growth and making conservative estimates of the future.</p><p><blockquote>你应该知道一件重要的事情——我不是亚马逊方面的专家，而且我很难评估成长型股票。我真的怀疑我是否有能力估计一家公司的未来增长。我通过观察过去的增长并对未来做出保守的估计来预测未来的增长。</blockquote></p><p> This method borders on \"data extrapolation\", which is making assumptions based on past data. Data extrapolation isn't great because the future is different from the past - so making future projections based on past data isn't ideal.</p><p><blockquote>这种方法接近于“数据外推”，即根据过去的数据做出假设。数据外推不是很好，因为未来不同于过去——所以根据过去的数据进行未来预测并不理想。</blockquote></p><p> But after valuing hundreds of companies, I've found that this kind of style does a good job of getting the valuation approximately right. I always try to set my valuations low, because it's better to buy low and make a killing than buy high and lose money.</p><p><blockquote>但在对数百家公司进行估值后，我发现这种风格在获得大致正确的估值方面做得很好。我总是尽量把我的估值定得低，因为低买高卖赔钱不如低买高卖。</blockquote></p><p>   Warren Buffett said, “The three most important words in investing are  <b>margin of safety</b>.” That means to buy stuff on sale... That's the whole secret to great investing.    Rule 1 Investing  This model is built on getting the valuation \"approximately right,\" and looking to buy with a large margin of safety. I hope you enjoy, and as always, I'll try to keep it clean and common sense.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特说：“投资中最重要的三个词是<b>安全裕度</b>意思是买打折的东西……这就是伟大投资的全部秘诀。规则 1 投资该模型的基础是获得“大致正确”的估值，并寻求以较大的安全边际购买。我希望你喜欢，一如既往，我会尽量保持干净和常识。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Where does Amazon get its money? Amazon is split into 3 segments: North America, International, and AWS.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊从哪里来钱？亚马逊分为3个部门：北美、国际和AWS。</blockquote></p><p> As a market leader in 2 high growth industries (E-commerce and cloud computing), Amazon will probably continue to see high growth in the future. In this section, I looked at the past revenue growth and operating margins for each of Amazon's segments, and I used this to make conservative future projections.</p><p><blockquote>作为2个高增长行业（电子商务和云计算）的市场领导者，亚马逊未来很可能会继续保持高增长。在本节中，我查看了亚马逊每个细分市场过去的收入增长和营业利润率，并以此对未来做出了保守的预测。</blockquote></p><p> And later, I added up the numbers from each segment to make projections for the whole company. Here's a look at AMZN's North America segment. This segment's revenue comes from retail sales and subscription service revenues.</p><p><blockquote>后来，我把每个细分市场的数字加起来，对整个公司进行预测。以下是 AMZN 的北美业务。该部门的收入来自零售销售和订阅服务收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce022c0ecacc3829cf83378211bbfd9d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"192\"><span>Source: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者数据来自 2018 10-K、2019 10-K 和 2020 10-K</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I projected declining revenue growth and strong operating margins for this segment. I projected slower revenue growth, because I figure there has to be a cap on how much money Amazon can make in North America.</p><p><blockquote>我预计该部门的收入增长将下降，营业利润率将强劲。我预计收入增长会放缓，因为我认为亚马逊在北美能赚多少钱必须有一个上限。</blockquote></p><p> Hopefully, Amazon will exceed this revenue growth. But, I do think it would be a pretty incredible feat for Amazon to grow from $200B in revenue to $400B in 5 years.</p><p><blockquote>希望亚马逊能够超过这一收入增长。但是，我确实认为亚马逊在5年内从2000亿美元的收入增长到4000亿美元将是一个非常不可思议的壮举。</blockquote></p><p> Here's a look at Amazon's International segment:</p><p><blockquote>以下是亚马逊的国际业务：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3d7a5bde370f55e863f58c888abc496\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"219\"><span>Source: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者数据来自 2018 10-K、2019 10-K 和 2020 10-K</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For Amazon's international segment, I projected 20% annual revenue growth, and improving operating margins. I figured that operating margins would gradually improve until the margins reached a similar point to what Amazon sees in its US segment.</p><p><blockquote>对于亚马逊的国际部门，我预计年收入增长 20%，营业利润率将有所提高。我认为营业利润率会逐渐提高，直到利润率达到与亚马逊美国业务相似的水平。</blockquote></p><p> And for Amazon's last and most exciting segment, here's AWS:</p><p><blockquote>对于亚马逊最后也是最令人兴奋的部分，这里是 AWS：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/769700013871f2cd09e8ce47cfb10966\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"203\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AWS is undoubtedly going to bring high growth for Amazon, and high profits. I projected that the AWS segment will probably continue to grow at a high rate. I projected a 25-30% annual revenue growth rate because cloud computing has a lot of room to grow, and according to Research and Markets, the cloud computing industry should grow at about&nbsp;17.5% CAGR&nbsp;until 2025.</p><p><blockquote>AWS无疑将为亚马逊带来高增长和高利润。我预计 AWS 细分市场可能会继续高速增长。我预计年收入增长率为25-30%，因为云计算有很大的增长空间，根据研究和市场，到2025年，云计算行业的CAGR增长率应该约为17.5%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Additionally, I projected 28% operating margins, because the AWS business benefits from operating leverage. As more people use the software, the company is able to make higher margins as it spreads costs over more people. It's possible that Amazon could exceed 28% operating margins, so there might be upside to Amazon's fair value.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我预计营业利润率为 28%，因为 AWS 业务受益于运营杠杆。随着越来越多的人使用该软件，该公司能够将成本分摊到更多人身上，从而获得更高的利润。亚马逊的营业利润率有可能超过 28%，因此亚马逊的公允价值可能会有上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> These projections were added together to help us figure out what the entire company should be worth.</p><p><blockquote>这些预测被加在一起，以帮助我们计算出整个公司的价值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Capital Allocation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>资本配置</b></blockquote></p><p> How does Amazon spend its money? You might find it interesting to analyze Amazon's capital allocation, so you can see what Amazon does with its money, and where it might be investing for the future.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊是怎么花钱的？你可能会发现分析亚马逊的资本配置很有趣，这样你就可以看到亚马逊用它的钱做了什么，以及它未来可能会投资到哪里。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45f5afa0f641ee1aae39aa69cc150165\" tg-width=\"619\" tg-height=\"499\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The biggest portion of Amazon's operating cash flows goes towards capital expenditures. From what I can tell, Amazon has not had any share activity over the past 5 years. The company has issued shares - but from the looks of the cash flow statement, it looks like they haven't raised any money from selling shares, and they haven't spent any money buying back shares.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊运营现金流的最大部分用于资本支出。据我所知，亚马逊在过去5年里没有任何分享活动。该公司已经发行股票——但从现金流量表来看，他们似乎没有通过出售股票筹集到任何资金，也没有花任何钱回购股票。</blockquote></p><p>   In February 2016, the Board of Directors authorized a program to repurchase up to $5.0 billion of our common stock, with no fixed expiration.  <i>There were no repurchases of common stock in 2018, 2019, or 2020.</i>    Source:2020 10-K&nbsp;page 60,  <i>emphasis added</i>  But for our purposes, this quote shows that Amazon hasn't bought back any stock over the past 3 years. They also haven't spent any money on dividends, which is good because they're a high growth company.</p><p><blockquote>2016年2月，董事会批准了一项回购高达50亿美元普通股的计划，没有固定的到期日。<i>2018年、2019年或2020年没有回购普通股。</i>来源：2020 10-K 第 60 页，<i>增加了重点</i>但就我们的目的而言，这句话表明亚马逊在过去 3 年里没有回购任何股票。他们也没有在股息上花任何钱，这很好，因为他们是一家高增长公司。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon has consistently spent money on acquisitions and paying down debt. What's really interesting is that Amazon has built up a lot of spare cash over the past 5 years. Their cash position has risen about $58B since 2016, going from about $26B at the end of 2016 to about $84B at the end of 2020.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊一直在收购和偿还债务上花钱。真正有趣的是，亚马逊在过去5年里积累了大量闲置现金。自2016年以来，他们的现金头寸增加了约580亿美元，从2016年底的约26B美元增加到2020年底的约840亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon has a lot more cash than they used to, so we could see future spending go towards a dividend, share buybacks, new acquisitions, or maybe more business investments that will lead to growth.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊拥有比以前多得多的现金，因此我们可能会看到未来的支出将用于股息、股票回购、新收购，或者更多将带来增长的商业投资。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> First, I used a discount rate of 7.7% for Amazon because that's what I found the company's weighted average cost of capital, or WACC, to be. I assumed an 8% cost of equity, and Amazon has averaged somewhere around a 20-30% tax rate over the past 10 years.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我对亚马逊使用了 7.7% 的贴现率，因为我发现该公司的加权平均资本成本 (WACC) 就是这样。我假设股权成本为 8%，过去 10 年亚马逊的平均税率约为 20-30%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c036264f19bb10fdad477a629b40f803\" tg-width=\"361\" tg-height=\"288\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I used a DCF model to find Amazon's value today. In the model down below, you can see in the top 2 red boxes that I projected that the company would have lower revenue growth and strong operating margins.</p><p><blockquote>我用DCF模型找到了亚马逊今天的价值。在下面的模型中，您可以在顶部 2 个红色方框中看到，我预计该公司的收入增长将较低，营业利润率将较高。</blockquote></p><p> This model projects that Amazon will have over $850B in revenue by 2025. That's absolutely nuts if you think about it, but based on estimated revenue growth, it seems feasible.</p><p><blockquote>该模型预计，到 2025 年，亚马逊的收入将超过 8500 亿美元。仔细想想，这绝对是疯狂的，但根据预计的收入增长，这似乎是可行的。</blockquote></p><p> Right now, Walmart(NYSE:WMT)leads the world in revenue with about $550B. Amazon sits in third place for annual revenue, with about $390B. In 5 years, Amazon could easily have the largest revenue of any company in the world.</p><p><blockquote>目前，沃尔玛（纽约证券交易所股票代码：WMT）以约 5500 亿美元的收入领先全球。亚马逊的年收入排名第三，约为 3900 亿美元。5年后，亚马逊很容易成为世界上收入最高的公司。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95c459abcbda43e35b40379a1083ecae\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"510\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Down at the bottom of this model, you can see there's a red box that projects unlevered FCF margins. This basically measures how much of the company's revenue will become business profits, without including interest or debt payments. In the turquoise box, I applied the discount rate to see what the future cash flows are worth today.</p><p><blockquote>在该模型的底部，您可以看到一个红色框，显示无杠杆自由现金流利润率。这基本上衡量了公司有多少收入将成为商业利润，不包括利息或债务支付。在绿松石框中，我应用贴现率来查看未来现金流今天的价值。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3fa0846616fdc847a3fe1fdf7a09bed\" tg-width=\"267\" tg-height=\"404\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Today, it looks like Amazon is slightly overvalued. The model projects that the stock might be about 15% overvalued, and we could expect to make about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years if we invested today.</p><p><blockquote>如今，亚马逊似乎被高估了。该模型预测该股可能被高估约 15%，如果我们今天投资，我们预计未来 5 年的年回报率约为 5%。</blockquote></p><p> These estimations are based on the future cash flows that the business should generate. I don't hate Amazon or anything, I just don't think that Amazon stock would make a great investment at current prices.</p><p><blockquote>该等估计乃基于业务应产生的未来现金流量。我不讨厌亚马逊或任何东西，我只是不认为亚马逊股票在目前的价格下会是一项伟大的投资。</blockquote></p><p> Down at the bottom, I threw in 2 \"Buy Prices\" where Amazon stock might be more appealing. The idea behind this is that the cheaper AMZN stock gets, the higher returns we can expect.</p><p><blockquote>在底部，我抛出了两个亚马逊股票可能更有吸引力的“买入价”。这背后的想法是，AMZN 股票越便宜，我们期望的回报就越高。</blockquote></p><p> The model projects that you'd make around 15% annual returns at $2,200 per share, and you might make around 22% annual returns at $1,700 per share.</p><p><blockquote>该模型预计，每股 2,200 美元的年回报率约为 15%，每股 1,700 美元的年回报率约为 22%。</blockquote></p><p> \"But doesn't it seem unreasonable to set the buy price in the $2,000s when the stock's trading near $3,500?\" It does a little bit. It seems pretty unlikely that Amazon's share price will nose dive right down past $2,000.</p><p><blockquote>“但是当股票交易价格接近 3,500 美元时，将买入价设定在 2,000 美元左右是不是似乎不合理？”确实有一点点。亚马逊的股价似乎不太可能跌破 2,000 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But the idea is, if we're patient, we might get an opportunity to buy these shares underpriced. Last February, Amazon traded lower than $1,900 (I wish I bought some back then). We'll probably have opportunities in the future to buy Amazon at a discount.</p><p><blockquote>但我们的想法是，如果我们有耐心，我们可能会有机会以低价购买这些股票。去年2月，亚马逊的交易价格低于1900美元（我希望我当时买了一些）。我们将来可能有机会以折扣价购买亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recap</b></p><p><blockquote><b>回顾</b></blockquote></p><p> Today, it seems like Amazon is slightly overvalued, because it seems to offer about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years. That doesn't mean you should sell Amazon if you're a long time holder, because Amazon should continue to do well as a leader in E-commerce and cloud computing.</p><p><blockquote>如今，亚马逊似乎被略微高估了，因为它似乎在未来 5 年内提供了约 5% 的年回报率。这并不意味着如果你是长期持有者，你就应该出售亚马逊，因为亚马逊应该继续作为电子商务和云计算领域的领导者做得很好。</blockquote></p><p> But if you're looking for your next stock to invest in, Amazon seems to be too expensive right now. And if you've been eyeing Amazon for a while and you're looking to get in, now's not the best time to get into Amazon.</p><p><blockquote>但如果您正在寻找下一只投资股票，亚马逊现在似乎太贵了。如果你已经关注亚马逊有一段时间了，你想进入亚马逊，现在不是进入亚马逊的最佳时机。</blockquote></p><p> Even if we don't invest in the stock, we can still watch Amazon as they become the company with the most revenue in the world. And there's a lot we can learn from studying Amazon and Jeff Bezos. He's a smart dude.</p><p><blockquote>即使我们不投资股票，我们仍然可以看着亚马逊成为世界上收入最高的公司。我们可以从研究亚马逊和杰夫·贝索斯中学到很多东西。他是个聪明的家伙。</blockquote></p><p> Thank you very much for reading, and I hope that you have a great rest of your day.</p><p><blockquote>非常感谢你的阅读，我希望你今天过得愉快。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: Good Stock, Not Good Price<blockquote>亚马逊：库存好，价格不好</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: Good Stock, Not Good Price<blockquote>亚马逊：库存好，价格不好</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-27 11:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Amazon is one of the most innovative companies in the world today, leading the E-commerce industry and cloud computing services.</li>  <li>Unfortunately, it's a little overpriced. This is consistent with some of the other mega-cap stocks I've analyzed.</li>  <li>This article looks at what Amazon stock is most likely worth for us investors.</li>  <li>I hope you enjoy.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/451bc93115fb453c0fcb76434c40f7f4\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>亚马逊是当今世界最具创新精神的公司之一，引领着电子商务行业和云计算服务。</li><li>不幸的是，它的价格有点过高。这与我分析过的其他一些大型股一致。</li><li>本文着眼于亚马逊股票对美国投资者来说最有可能的价值。</li><li>我希望你喜欢。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>杂项摄影/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Today, Amazon (AMZN) seems to be a little overpriced based on my intrinsic value model.</p><p><blockquote>如今，根据我的内在价值模型，亚马逊（AMZN）似乎有点定价过高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82d937a2de3f0709088e1ab4548267b\" tg-width=\"371\" tg-height=\"260\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> You might have seen some of my other articles where I've bashed other popular stocks like Apple (AAPL) or Microsoft (MSFT). Well, I guess today it's Amazon's turn. I just try to share what I think companies are worth, and I've found that a lot of companies seem to be overpriced.</p><p><blockquote>您可能已经看过我的其他一些文章，其中我抨击了苹果 (AAPL) 或微软 (MSFT) 等其他热门股票。好吧，我想今天轮到亚马逊了。我只是试图分享我认为公司的价值，我发现很多公司似乎定价过高。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, I'll break down how I came up with Amazon's valuation. I know that there's tons of different opinions out there about Amazon, so I'll try to share the reasoning behind my valuation to help you make better investments in the future.</p><p><blockquote>在这篇文章中，我将分析我是如何得出亚马逊估值的。我知道关于亚马逊有很多不同的观点，所以我会尝试分享我的估值背后的原因，以帮助你在未来做出更好的投资。</blockquote></p><p> Something important you should know - I'm not an expert on Amazon, and I have a really difficult time valuing growth stocks. I really doubt that I have the ability to estimate a company's future growth. I made future growth estimates by looking at past growth and making conservative estimates of the future.</p><p><blockquote>你应该知道一件重要的事情——我不是亚马逊方面的专家，而且我很难评估成长型股票。我真的怀疑我是否有能力估计一家公司的未来增长。我通过观察过去的增长并对未来做出保守的估计来预测未来的增长。</blockquote></p><p> This method borders on \"data extrapolation\", which is making assumptions based on past data. Data extrapolation isn't great because the future is different from the past - so making future projections based on past data isn't ideal.</p><p><blockquote>这种方法接近于“数据外推”，即根据过去的数据做出假设。数据外推不是很好，因为未来不同于过去——所以根据过去的数据进行未来预测并不理想。</blockquote></p><p> But after valuing hundreds of companies, I've found that this kind of style does a good job of getting the valuation approximately right. I always try to set my valuations low, because it's better to buy low and make a killing than buy high and lose money.</p><p><blockquote>但在对数百家公司进行估值后，我发现这种风格在获得大致正确的估值方面做得很好。我总是尽量把我的估值定得低，因为低买高卖赔钱不如低买高卖。</blockquote></p><p>   Warren Buffett said, “The three most important words in investing are  <b>margin of safety</b>.” That means to buy stuff on sale... That's the whole secret to great investing.    Rule 1 Investing  This model is built on getting the valuation \"approximately right,\" and looking to buy with a large margin of safety. I hope you enjoy, and as always, I'll try to keep it clean and common sense.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特说：“投资中最重要的三个词是<b>安全裕度</b>意思是买打折的东西……这就是伟大投资的全部秘诀。规则 1 投资该模型的基础是获得“大致正确”的估值，并寻求以较大的安全边际购买。我希望你喜欢，一如既往，我会尽量保持干净和常识。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Where does Amazon get its money? Amazon is split into 3 segments: North America, International, and AWS.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊从哪里来钱？亚马逊分为3个部门：北美、国际和AWS。</blockquote></p><p> As a market leader in 2 high growth industries (E-commerce and cloud computing), Amazon will probably continue to see high growth in the future. In this section, I looked at the past revenue growth and operating margins for each of Amazon's segments, and I used this to make conservative future projections.</p><p><blockquote>作为2个高增长行业（电子商务和云计算）的市场领导者，亚马逊未来很可能会继续保持高增长。在本节中，我查看了亚马逊每个细分市场过去的收入增长和营业利润率，并以此对未来做出了保守的预测。</blockquote></p><p> And later, I added up the numbers from each segment to make projections for the whole company. Here's a look at AMZN's North America segment. This segment's revenue comes from retail sales and subscription service revenues.</p><p><blockquote>后来，我把每个细分市场的数字加起来，对整个公司进行预测。以下是 AMZN 的北美业务。该部门的收入来自零售销售和订阅服务收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce022c0ecacc3829cf83378211bbfd9d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"192\"><span>Source: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者数据来自 2018 10-K、2019 10-K 和 2020 10-K</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I projected declining revenue growth and strong operating margins for this segment. I projected slower revenue growth, because I figure there has to be a cap on how much money Amazon can make in North America.</p><p><blockquote>我预计该部门的收入增长将下降，营业利润率将强劲。我预计收入增长会放缓，因为我认为亚马逊在北美能赚多少钱必须有一个上限。</blockquote></p><p> Hopefully, Amazon will exceed this revenue growth. But, I do think it would be a pretty incredible feat for Amazon to grow from $200B in revenue to $400B in 5 years.</p><p><blockquote>希望亚马逊能够超过这一收入增长。但是，我确实认为亚马逊在5年内从2000亿美元的收入增长到4000亿美元将是一个非常不可思议的壮举。</blockquote></p><p> Here's a look at Amazon's International segment:</p><p><blockquote>以下是亚马逊的国际业务：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3d7a5bde370f55e863f58c888abc496\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"219\"><span>Source: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者数据来自 2018 10-K、2019 10-K 和 2020 10-K</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For Amazon's international segment, I projected 20% annual revenue growth, and improving operating margins. I figured that operating margins would gradually improve until the margins reached a similar point to what Amazon sees in its US segment.</p><p><blockquote>对于亚马逊的国际部门，我预计年收入增长 20%，营业利润率将有所提高。我认为营业利润率会逐渐提高，直到利润率达到与亚马逊美国业务相似的水平。</blockquote></p><p> And for Amazon's last and most exciting segment, here's AWS:</p><p><blockquote>对于亚马逊最后也是最令人兴奋的部分，这里是 AWS：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/769700013871f2cd09e8ce47cfb10966\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"203\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AWS is undoubtedly going to bring high growth for Amazon, and high profits. I projected that the AWS segment will probably continue to grow at a high rate. I projected a 25-30% annual revenue growth rate because cloud computing has a lot of room to grow, and according to Research and Markets, the cloud computing industry should grow at about&nbsp;17.5% CAGR&nbsp;until 2025.</p><p><blockquote>AWS无疑将为亚马逊带来高增长和高利润。我预计 AWS 细分市场可能会继续高速增长。我预计年收入增长率为25-30%，因为云计算有很大的增长空间，根据研究和市场，到2025年，云计算行业的CAGR增长率应该约为17.5%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Additionally, I projected 28% operating margins, because the AWS business benefits from operating leverage. As more people use the software, the company is able to make higher margins as it spreads costs over more people. It's possible that Amazon could exceed 28% operating margins, so there might be upside to Amazon's fair value.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我预计营业利润率为 28%，因为 AWS 业务受益于运营杠杆。随着越来越多的人使用该软件，该公司能够将成本分摊到更多人身上，从而获得更高的利润。亚马逊的营业利润率有可能超过 28%，因此亚马逊的公允价值可能会有上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> These projections were added together to help us figure out what the entire company should be worth.</p><p><blockquote>这些预测被加在一起，以帮助我们计算出整个公司的价值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Capital Allocation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>资本配置</b></blockquote></p><p> How does Amazon spend its money? You might find it interesting to analyze Amazon's capital allocation, so you can see what Amazon does with its money, and where it might be investing for the future.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊是怎么花钱的？你可能会发现分析亚马逊的资本配置很有趣，这样你就可以看到亚马逊用它的钱做了什么，以及它未来可能会投资到哪里。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45f5afa0f641ee1aae39aa69cc150165\" tg-width=\"619\" tg-height=\"499\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The biggest portion of Amazon's operating cash flows goes towards capital expenditures. From what I can tell, Amazon has not had any share activity over the past 5 years. The company has issued shares - but from the looks of the cash flow statement, it looks like they haven't raised any money from selling shares, and they haven't spent any money buying back shares.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊运营现金流的最大部分用于资本支出。据我所知，亚马逊在过去5年里没有任何分享活动。该公司已经发行股票——但从现金流量表来看，他们似乎没有通过出售股票筹集到任何资金，也没有花任何钱回购股票。</blockquote></p><p>   In February 2016, the Board of Directors authorized a program to repurchase up to $5.0 billion of our common stock, with no fixed expiration.  <i>There were no repurchases of common stock in 2018, 2019, or 2020.</i>    Source:2020 10-K&nbsp;page 60,  <i>emphasis added</i>  But for our purposes, this quote shows that Amazon hasn't bought back any stock over the past 3 years. They also haven't spent any money on dividends, which is good because they're a high growth company.</p><p><blockquote>2016年2月，董事会批准了一项回购高达50亿美元普通股的计划，没有固定的到期日。<i>2018年、2019年或2020年没有回购普通股。</i>来源：2020 10-K 第 60 页，<i>增加了重点</i>但就我们的目的而言，这句话表明亚马逊在过去 3 年里没有回购任何股票。他们也没有在股息上花任何钱，这很好，因为他们是一家高增长公司。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon has consistently spent money on acquisitions and paying down debt. What's really interesting is that Amazon has built up a lot of spare cash over the past 5 years. Their cash position has risen about $58B since 2016, going from about $26B at the end of 2016 to about $84B at the end of 2020.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊一直在收购和偿还债务上花钱。真正有趣的是，亚马逊在过去5年里积累了大量闲置现金。自2016年以来，他们的现金头寸增加了约580亿美元，从2016年底的约26B美元增加到2020年底的约840亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon has a lot more cash than they used to, so we could see future spending go towards a dividend, share buybacks, new acquisitions, or maybe more business investments that will lead to growth.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊拥有比以前多得多的现金，因此我们可能会看到未来的支出将用于股息、股票回购、新收购，或者更多将带来增长的商业投资。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> First, I used a discount rate of 7.7% for Amazon because that's what I found the company's weighted average cost of capital, or WACC, to be. I assumed an 8% cost of equity, and Amazon has averaged somewhere around a 20-30% tax rate over the past 10 years.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我对亚马逊使用了 7.7% 的贴现率，因为我发现该公司的加权平均资本成本 (WACC) 就是这样。我假设股权成本为 8%，过去 10 年亚马逊的平均税率约为 20-30%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c036264f19bb10fdad477a629b40f803\" tg-width=\"361\" tg-height=\"288\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I used a DCF model to find Amazon's value today. In the model down below, you can see in the top 2 red boxes that I projected that the company would have lower revenue growth and strong operating margins.</p><p><blockquote>我用DCF模型找到了亚马逊今天的价值。在下面的模型中，您可以在顶部 2 个红色方框中看到，我预计该公司的收入增长将较低，营业利润率将较高。</blockquote></p><p> This model projects that Amazon will have over $850B in revenue by 2025. That's absolutely nuts if you think about it, but based on estimated revenue growth, it seems feasible.</p><p><blockquote>该模型预计，到 2025 年，亚马逊的收入将超过 8500 亿美元。仔细想想，这绝对是疯狂的，但根据预计的收入增长，这似乎是可行的。</blockquote></p><p> Right now, Walmart(NYSE:WMT)leads the world in revenue with about $550B. Amazon sits in third place for annual revenue, with about $390B. In 5 years, Amazon could easily have the largest revenue of any company in the world.</p><p><blockquote>目前，沃尔玛（纽约证券交易所股票代码：WMT）以约 5500 亿美元的收入领先全球。亚马逊的年收入排名第三，约为 3900 亿美元。5年后，亚马逊很容易成为世界上收入最高的公司。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95c459abcbda43e35b40379a1083ecae\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"510\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Down at the bottom of this model, you can see there's a red box that projects unlevered FCF margins. This basically measures how much of the company's revenue will become business profits, without including interest or debt payments. In the turquoise box, I applied the discount rate to see what the future cash flows are worth today.</p><p><blockquote>在该模型的底部，您可以看到一个红色框，显示无杠杆自由现金流利润率。这基本上衡量了公司有多少收入将成为商业利润，不包括利息或债务支付。在绿松石框中，我应用贴现率来查看未来现金流今天的价值。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3fa0846616fdc847a3fe1fdf7a09bed\" tg-width=\"267\" tg-height=\"404\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Today, it looks like Amazon is slightly overvalued. The model projects that the stock might be about 15% overvalued, and we could expect to make about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years if we invested today.</p><p><blockquote>如今，亚马逊似乎被高估了。该模型预测该股可能被高估约 15%，如果我们今天投资，我们预计未来 5 年的年回报率约为 5%。</blockquote></p><p> These estimations are based on the future cash flows that the business should generate. I don't hate Amazon or anything, I just don't think that Amazon stock would make a great investment at current prices.</p><p><blockquote>该等估计乃基于业务应产生的未来现金流量。我不讨厌亚马逊或任何东西，我只是不认为亚马逊股票在目前的价格下会是一项伟大的投资。</blockquote></p><p> Down at the bottom, I threw in 2 \"Buy Prices\" where Amazon stock might be more appealing. The idea behind this is that the cheaper AMZN stock gets, the higher returns we can expect.</p><p><blockquote>在底部，我抛出了两个亚马逊股票可能更有吸引力的“买入价”。这背后的想法是，AMZN 股票越便宜，我们期望的回报就越高。</blockquote></p><p> The model projects that you'd make around 15% annual returns at $2,200 per share, and you might make around 22% annual returns at $1,700 per share.</p><p><blockquote>该模型预计，每股 2,200 美元的年回报率约为 15%，每股 1,700 美元的年回报率约为 22%。</blockquote></p><p> \"But doesn't it seem unreasonable to set the buy price in the $2,000s when the stock's trading near $3,500?\" It does a little bit. It seems pretty unlikely that Amazon's share price will nose dive right down past $2,000.</p><p><blockquote>“但是当股票交易价格接近 3,500 美元时，将买入价设定在 2,000 美元左右是不是似乎不合理？”确实有一点点。亚马逊的股价似乎不太可能跌破 2,000 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But the idea is, if we're patient, we might get an opportunity to buy these shares underpriced. Last February, Amazon traded lower than $1,900 (I wish I bought some back then). We'll probably have opportunities in the future to buy Amazon at a discount.</p><p><blockquote>但我们的想法是，如果我们有耐心，我们可能会有机会以低价购买这些股票。去年2月，亚马逊的交易价格低于1900美元（我希望我当时买了一些）。我们将来可能有机会以折扣价购买亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recap</b></p><p><blockquote><b>回顾</b></blockquote></p><p> Today, it seems like Amazon is slightly overvalued, because it seems to offer about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years. That doesn't mean you should sell Amazon if you're a long time holder, because Amazon should continue to do well as a leader in E-commerce and cloud computing.</p><p><blockquote>如今，亚马逊似乎被略微高估了，因为它似乎在未来 5 年内提供了约 5% 的年回报率。这并不意味着如果你是长期持有者，你就应该出售亚马逊，因为亚马逊应该继续作为电子商务和云计算领域的领导者做得很好。</blockquote></p><p> But if you're looking for your next stock to invest in, Amazon seems to be too expensive right now. And if you've been eyeing Amazon for a while and you're looking to get in, now's not the best time to get into Amazon.</p><p><blockquote>但如果您正在寻找下一只投资股票，亚马逊现在似乎太贵了。如果你已经关注亚马逊有一段时间了，你想进入亚马逊，现在不是进入亚马逊的最佳时机。</blockquote></p><p> Even if we don't invest in the stock, we can still watch Amazon as they become the company with the most revenue in the world. And there's a lot we can learn from studying Amazon and Jeff Bezos. He's a smart dude.</p><p><blockquote>即使我们不投资股票，我们仍然可以看着亚马逊成为世界上收入最高的公司。我们可以从研究亚马逊和杰夫·贝索斯中学到很多东西。他是个聪明的家伙。</blockquote></p><p> Thank you very much for reading, and I hope that you have a great rest of your day.</p><p><blockquote>非常感谢你的阅读，我希望你今天过得愉快。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436641-amazon-good-stock-not-good-price\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436641-amazon-good-stock-not-good-price","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184001921","content_text":"Summary\n\nAmazon is one of the most innovative companies in the world today, leading the E-commerce industry and cloud computing services.\nUnfortunately, it's a little overpriced. This is consistent with some of the other mega-cap stocks I've analyzed.\nThis article looks at what Amazon stock is most likely worth for us investors.\nI hope you enjoy.\n\nSundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nToday, Amazon (AMZN) seems to be a little overpriced based on my intrinsic value model.\nSource: Author\nYou might have seen some of my other articles where I've bashed other popular stocks like Apple (AAPL) or Microsoft (MSFT). Well, I guess today it's Amazon's turn. I just try to share what I think companies are worth, and I've found that a lot of companies seem to be overpriced.\nIn this article, I'll break down how I came up with Amazon's valuation. I know that there's tons of different opinions out there about Amazon, so I'll try to share the reasoning behind my valuation to help you make better investments in the future.\nSomething important you should know - I'm not an expert on Amazon, and I have a really difficult time valuing growth stocks. I really doubt that I have the ability to estimate a company's future growth. I made future growth estimates by looking at past growth and making conservative estimates of the future.\nThis method borders on \"data extrapolation\", which is making assumptions based on past data. Data extrapolation isn't great because the future is different from the past - so making future projections based on past data isn't ideal.\nBut after valuing hundreds of companies, I've found that this kind of style does a good job of getting the valuation approximately right. I always try to set my valuations low, because it's better to buy low and make a killing than buy high and lose money.\n\n Warren Buffett said, “The three most important words in investing are\n margin of safety.” That means to buy stuff on sale... That's the whole secret to great investing.\n\n\n Rule 1 Investing\n\nThis model is built on getting the valuation \"approximately right,\" and looking to buy with a large margin of safety. I hope you enjoy, and as always, I'll try to keep it clean and common sense.\nBusiness Model\nWhere does Amazon get its money? Amazon is split into 3 segments: North America, International, and AWS.\nAs a market leader in 2 high growth industries (E-commerce and cloud computing), Amazon will probably continue to see high growth in the future. In this section, I looked at the past revenue growth and operating margins for each of Amazon's segments, and I used this to make conservative future projections.\nAnd later, I added up the numbers from each segment to make projections for the whole company. Here's a look at AMZN's North America segment. This segment's revenue comes from retail sales and subscription service revenues.\nSource: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K\nI projected declining revenue growth and strong operating margins for this segment. I projected slower revenue growth, because I figure there has to be a cap on how much money Amazon can make in North America.\nHopefully, Amazon will exceed this revenue growth. But, I do think it would be a pretty incredible feat for Amazon to grow from $200B in revenue to $400B in 5 years.\nHere's a look at Amazon's International segment:\nSource: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K\nFor Amazon's international segment, I projected 20% annual revenue growth, and improving operating margins. I figured that operating margins would gradually improve until the margins reached a similar point to what Amazon sees in its US segment.\nAnd for Amazon's last and most exciting segment, here's AWS:\nSource: Author\nAWS is undoubtedly going to bring high growth for Amazon, and high profits. I projected that the AWS segment will probably continue to grow at a high rate. I projected a 25-30% annual revenue growth rate because cloud computing has a lot of room to grow, and according to Research and Markets, the cloud computing industry should grow at about 17.5% CAGR until 2025.\nAdditionally, I projected 28% operating margins, because the AWS business benefits from operating leverage. As more people use the software, the company is able to make higher margins as it spreads costs over more people. It's possible that Amazon could exceed 28% operating margins, so there might be upside to Amazon's fair value.\nThese projections were added together to help us figure out what the entire company should be worth.\nCapital Allocation\nHow does Amazon spend its money? You might find it interesting to analyze Amazon's capital allocation, so you can see what Amazon does with its money, and where it might be investing for the future.\nSource: Author\nThe biggest portion of Amazon's operating cash flows goes towards capital expenditures. From what I can tell, Amazon has not had any share activity over the past 5 years. The company has issued shares - but from the looks of the cash flow statement, it looks like they haven't raised any money from selling shares, and they haven't spent any money buying back shares.\n\n In February 2016, the Board of Directors authorized a program to repurchase up to $5.0 billion of our common stock, with no fixed expiration.\n There were no repurchases of common stock in 2018, 2019, or 2020.\n\n\n Source:2020 10-K page 60,\n emphasis added\n\nBut for our purposes, this quote shows that Amazon hasn't bought back any stock over the past 3 years. They also haven't spent any money on dividends, which is good because they're a high growth company.\nAmazon has consistently spent money on acquisitions and paying down debt. What's really interesting is that Amazon has built up a lot of spare cash over the past 5 years. Their cash position has risen about $58B since 2016, going from about $26B at the end of 2016 to about $84B at the end of 2020.\nAmazon has a lot more cash than they used to, so we could see future spending go towards a dividend, share buybacks, new acquisitions, or maybe more business investments that will lead to growth.\nValuation\nFirst, I used a discount rate of 7.7% for Amazon because that's what I found the company's weighted average cost of capital, or WACC, to be. I assumed an 8% cost of equity, and Amazon has averaged somewhere around a 20-30% tax rate over the past 10 years.\nSource: Author\nI used a DCF model to find Amazon's value today. In the model down below, you can see in the top 2 red boxes that I projected that the company would have lower revenue growth and strong operating margins.\nThis model projects that Amazon will have over $850B in revenue by 2025. That's absolutely nuts if you think about it, but based on estimated revenue growth, it seems feasible.\nRight now, Walmart(NYSE:WMT)leads the world in revenue with about $550B. Amazon sits in third place for annual revenue, with about $390B. In 5 years, Amazon could easily have the largest revenue of any company in the world.\nSource: Author\nDown at the bottom of this model, you can see there's a red box that projects unlevered FCF margins. This basically measures how much of the company's revenue will become business profits, without including interest or debt payments. In the turquoise box, I applied the discount rate to see what the future cash flows are worth today.\nSource: Author\nToday, it looks like Amazon is slightly overvalued. The model projects that the stock might be about 15% overvalued, and we could expect to make about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years if we invested today.\nThese estimations are based on the future cash flows that the business should generate. I don't hate Amazon or anything, I just don't think that Amazon stock would make a great investment at current prices.\nDown at the bottom, I threw in 2 \"Buy Prices\" where Amazon stock might be more appealing. The idea behind this is that the cheaper AMZN stock gets, the higher returns we can expect.\nThe model projects that you'd make around 15% annual returns at $2,200 per share, and you might make around 22% annual returns at $1,700 per share.\n\"But doesn't it seem unreasonable to set the buy price in the $2,000s when the stock's trading near $3,500?\" It does a little bit. It seems pretty unlikely that Amazon's share price will nose dive right down past $2,000.\nBut the idea is, if we're patient, we might get an opportunity to buy these shares underpriced. Last February, Amazon traded lower than $1,900 (I wish I bought some back then). We'll probably have opportunities in the future to buy Amazon at a discount.\nRecap\nToday, it seems like Amazon is slightly overvalued, because it seems to offer about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years. That doesn't mean you should sell Amazon if you're a long time holder, because Amazon should continue to do well as a leader in E-commerce and cloud computing.\nBut if you're looking for your next stock to invest in, Amazon seems to be too expensive right now. And if you've been eyeing Amazon for a while and you're looking to get in, now's not the best time to get into Amazon.\nEven if we don't invest in the stock, we can still watch Amazon as they become the company with the most revenue in the world. And there's a lot we can learn from studying Amazon and Jeff Bezos. He's a smart dude.\nThank you very much for reading, and I hope that you have a great rest of your day.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2451,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127328836,"gmtCreate":1624836580025,"gmtModify":1631890279873,"author":{"id":"3583660884205170","authorId":"3583660884205170","name":"TANKH888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59dee1a92cf748c217b1e0a4e79ec5e8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583660884205170","idStr":"3583660884205170"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"This will make Crypto to fall further..&nbsp;","listText":"This will make Crypto to fall further..&nbsp;","text":"This will make Crypto to fall further..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127328836","repostId":"1149670859","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1979,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124163655,"gmtCreate":1624754053377,"gmtModify":1631890279889,"author":{"id":"3583660884205170","authorId":"3583660884205170","name":"TANKH888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59dee1a92cf748c217b1e0a4e79ec5e8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583660884205170","idStr":"3583660884205170"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Equally good..&nbsp;","listText":"Equally good..&nbsp;","text":"Equally good..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124163655","repostId":"1108941456","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4077,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124160213,"gmtCreate":1624753977532,"gmtModify":1631890279899,"author":{"id":"3583660884205170","authorId":"3583660884205170","name":"TANKH888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59dee1a92cf748c217b1e0a4e79ec5e8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583660884205170","idStr":"3583660884205170"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good...&nbsp;","listText":"Good...&nbsp;","text":"Good...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124160213","repostId":"2146107083","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":782,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124187674,"gmtCreate":1624753901698,"gmtModify":1631885483109,"author":{"id":"3583660884205170","authorId":"3583660884205170","name":"TANKH888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59dee1a92cf748c217b1e0a4e79ec5e8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583660884205170","idStr":"3583660884205170"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Time will tell","listText":"Time will tell","text":"Time will tell","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124187674","repostId":"1164137597","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1078,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124185612,"gmtCreate":1624753741936,"gmtModify":1631890279908,"author":{"id":"3583660884205170","authorId":"3583660884205170","name":"TANKH888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59dee1a92cf748c217b1e0a4e79ec5e8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583660884205170","idStr":"3583660884205170"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good test for the stock","listText":"Good test for the stock","text":"Good test for the stock","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124185612","repostId":"1189436009","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":828,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125491741,"gmtCreate":1624683766583,"gmtModify":1631893344001,"author":{"id":"3583660884205170","authorId":"3583660884205170","name":"TANKH888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59dee1a92cf748c217b1e0a4e79ec5e8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583660884205170","idStr":"3583660884205170"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Stand aside and watch.. Crypto is for those with deep pocket...&nbsp;","listText":"Stand aside and watch.. Crypto is for those with deep pocket...&nbsp;","text":"Stand aside and watch.. Crypto is for those with deep pocket...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/125491741","repostId":"2146500392","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":854,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126517216,"gmtCreate":1624578671735,"gmtModify":1631884483796,"author":{"id":"3583660884205170","authorId":"3583660884205170","name":"TANKH888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59dee1a92cf748c217b1e0a4e79ec5e8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583660884205170","idStr":"3583660884205170"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Yes.. Dow going for 35000 and Nasdaq going for 15000","listText":"Yes.. Dow going for 35000 and Nasdaq going for 15000","text":"Yes.. Dow going for 35000 and Nasdaq going for 15000","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126517216","repostId":"2146023477","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":765,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126516711,"gmtCreate":1624578542533,"gmtModify":1631893344012,"author":{"id":"3583660884205170","authorId":"3583660884205170","name":"TANKH888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59dee1a92cf748c217b1e0a4e79ec5e8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583660884205170","idStr":"3583660884205170"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"This is bigger than Grab..&nbsp;","listText":"This is bigger than Grab..&nbsp;","text":"This is bigger than Grab..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126516711","repostId":"2146255080","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":881,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126863983,"gmtCreate":1624551402042,"gmtModify":1631893344027,"author":{"id":"3583660884205170","authorId":"3583660884205170","name":"TANKH888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59dee1a92cf748c217b1e0a4e79ec5e8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583660884205170","idStr":"3583660884205170"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Both are good atock","listText":"Both are good atock","text":"Both are good atock","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126863983","repostId":"1198422658","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":874,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128861234,"gmtCreate":1624510427228,"gmtModify":1631893344036,"author":{"id":"3583660884205170","authorId":"3583660884205170","name":"TANKH888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59dee1a92cf748c217b1e0a4e79ec5e8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583660884205170","idStr":"3583660884205170"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Agreed..&nbsp;","listText":"Agreed..&nbsp;","text":"Agreed..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128861234","repostId":"1176854050","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":751,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121210108,"gmtCreate":1624464911504,"gmtModify":1631893344050,"author":{"id":"3583660884205170","authorId":"3583660884205170","name":"TANKH888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59dee1a92cf748c217b1e0a4e79ec5e8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583660884205170","idStr":"3583660884205170"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good...&nbsp;","listText":"Good...&nbsp;","text":"Good...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121210108","repostId":"1166274187","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":839,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":123343059,"gmtCreate":1624410330771,"gmtModify":1631893344060,"author":{"id":"3583660884205170","authorId":"3583660884205170","name":"TANKH888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59dee1a92cf748c217b1e0a4e79ec5e8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583660884205170","idStr":"3583660884205170"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Let's see what is next. Stand aside and observe","listText":"Let's see what is next. Stand aside and observe","text":"Let's see what is next. Stand aside and observe","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123343059","repostId":"1164759713","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":753,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":112545969,"gmtCreate":1622893253051,"gmtModify":1634097026595,"author":{"id":"3583660884205170","authorId":"3583660884205170","name":"TANKH888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59dee1a92cf748c217b1e0a4e79ec5e8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583660884205170","authorIdStr":"3583660884205170"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Of course&nbsp;","listText":"Of course&nbsp;","text":"Of course","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":128,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/112545969","repostId":"1158897173","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":530,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153323850,"gmtCreate":1625010761870,"gmtModify":1631890279826,"author":{"id":"3583660884205170","authorId":"3583660884205170","name":"TANKH888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59dee1a92cf748c217b1e0a4e79ec5e8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583660884205170","authorIdStr":"3583660884205170"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Pullback is good and not crash..&nbsp;","listText":"Pullback is good and not crash..&nbsp;","text":"Pullback is good and not crash..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":11,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/153323850","repostId":"1174683579","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1174683579","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"个股异动一手消息解读","home_visible":1,"media_name":"行情直击","id":"1059448697","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51943b2858f75e05ca2ebb144b4e626a"},"pubTimestamp":1777402016,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1174683579?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-29 02:46","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"异动解读｜Galaxy Digital盘中上涨5.15%，Q1业绩大幅超预期叠加投行首次覆盖","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174683579","media":"行情直击","summary":"4月28日，Galaxy Digital盘中上涨5.15%，报26.34美元/股，成交额1.16亿美元。消息面上，公司公布一季度财报，调整后每股亏损0.49美元，大幅优于市场预期的亏损0.95美元，超预期幅度达48.42%；季度营收录得100.41亿美元，同样超越分析师预期的95.44亿美元。此外，Chardan于近日首次覆盖Galaxy Digital，给予买入评级及35美元目标价，高于当前股价约33%。业绩超预期与投行积极覆盖形成双重利好，推动股价走强。","content":"<p><p>4月28日，Galaxy Digital盘中上涨5.15%，报26.34美元/股，成交额1.16亿美元。</p><p>消息面上，公司公布一季度财报，调整后每股亏损0.49美元，大幅优于市场预期的亏损0.95美元，超预期幅度达48.42%；季度营收录得100.41亿美元，同样超越分析师预期的95.44亿美元。此外，Chardan于近日首次覆盖Galaxy Digital，给予买入评级及35美元目标价，高于当前股价约33%。目前市场分析师对该股平均评级为买入，平均目标价为40.10美元。业绩超预期与投行积极覆盖形成双重利好，推动股价走强。</p><p>（以上内容均基于市场公开消息，由程序或算法智能生成，仅作为股价异动提醒，不作为投资建议或交易依据。）</p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>异动解读｜Galaxy Digital盘中上涨5.15%，Q1业绩大幅超预期叠加投行首次覆盖</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n异动解读｜Galaxy Digital盘中上涨5.15%，Q1业绩大幅超预期叠加投行首次覆盖\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1059448697\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/51943b2858f75e05ca2ebb144b4e626a);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">行情直击 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-04-29 02:46</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><p>4月28日，Galaxy Digital盘中上涨5.15%，报26.34美元/股，成交额1.16亿美元。</p><p>消息面上，公司公布一季度财报，调整后每股亏损0.49美元，大幅优于市场预期的亏损0.95美元，超预期幅度达48.42%；季度营收录得100.41亿美元，同样超越分析师预期的95.44亿美元。此外，Chardan于近日首次覆盖Galaxy Digital，给予买入评级及35美元目标价，高于当前股价约33%。目前市场分析师对该股平均评级为买入，平均目标价为40.10美元。业绩超预期与投行积极覆盖形成双重利好，推动股价走强。</p><p>（以上内容均基于市场公开消息，由程序或算法智能生成，仅作为股价异动提醒，不作为投资建议或交易依据。）</p></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GLXY":"Galaxy Digital Holdings Ltd."},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174683579","content_text":"4月28日，Galaxy Digital盘中上涨5.15%，报26.34美元/股，成交额1.16亿美元。消息面上，公司公布一季度财报，调整后每股亏损0.49美元，大幅优于市场预期的亏损0.95美元，超预期幅度达48.42%；季度营收录得100.41亿美元，同样超越分析师预期的95.44亿美元。此外，Chardan于近日首次覆盖Galaxy Digital，给予买入评级及35美元目标价，高于当前股价约33%。目前市场分析师对该股平均评级为买入，平均目标价为40.10美元。业绩超预期与投行积极覆盖形成双重利好，推动股价走强。（以上内容均基于市场公开消息，由程序或算法智能生成，仅作为股价异动提醒，不作为投资建议或交易依据。）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GLXY":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1698,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":123077487,"gmtCreate":1624405366449,"gmtModify":1631884483812,"author":{"id":"3583660884205170","authorId":"3583660884205170","name":"TANKH888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59dee1a92cf748c217b1e0a4e79ec5e8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583660884205170","authorIdStr":"3583660884205170"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good. Dow going for 35000 and Nasdaq going for 15000","listText":"Good. Dow going for 35000 and Nasdaq going for 15000","text":"Good. Dow going for 35000 and Nasdaq going for 15000","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123077487","repostId":"2145664330","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":718,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":133802008,"gmtCreate":1621732637204,"gmtModify":1634186952020,"author":{"id":"3583660884205170","authorId":"3583660884205170","name":"TANKH888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59dee1a92cf748c217b1e0a4e79ec5e8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583660884205170","authorIdStr":"3583660884205170"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Yes. If no crypto, Tesla would have done better","listText":"Yes. If no crypto, Tesla would have done better","text":"Yes. If no crypto, Tesla would have done better","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/133802008","repostId":"1111747453","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111747453","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621609858,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1111747453?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-21 23:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla’s New Plaid Model Is Ready. That Should Help the Stock.<blockquote>特斯拉的新款格子图案已经准备就绪。这应该有助于股票。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111747453","media":"Barrons","summary":"Tesla’s updated Model S sedan is ready.CEO Elon Musk tweeted out Thursday that his company will host a delivery event for the Plaid model of its Model S electric car on June 3. That is a milestone investors who are bullish on Tesla stock have been waiting for, but it isn’t the most important one.Tesla stock rose 4.1% amid a broad market rally Thursday, but the gain still left shares down for the week. Tesla stock was up another 0.8% in Friday trading, a touch better than the 0.7% gain in the Dow","content":"<p>Tesla’s updated Model S sedan is ready.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉更新后的 Model S 轿车已经准备就绪。</blockquote></p><p> CEO Elon Musk tweeted out Thursday that his company will host a delivery event for the Plaid model of its Model S electric car on June 3. That is a milestone investors who are bullish on Tesla stock have been waiting for, but it isn’t the most important one.</p><p><blockquote>首席执行官埃隆·马斯克 (Elon Musk) 周四在推特上表示，他的公司将于 6 月 3 日举办 Model S 电动汽车格子车型的交付活动。这是看好特斯拉股票的投资者一直在等待的一个里程碑，但这并不是最重要的里程碑。</blockquote></p><p> Beginning deliveries should help the stock—-a little.</p><p><blockquote>开始交付应该会对股票有所帮助——一点点。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla(ticker: TSLA) stock rose 4.1% amid a broad market rally Thursday, but the gain still left shares down for the week. Tesla stock was up another 0.8% in Friday trading, a touch better than the 0.7% gain in the&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average.The&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;was up 0.5%.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）股价周四在大盘上涨的情况下上涨 4.1%，但涨幅仍导致本周股价下跌。特斯拉股价周五交易中又上涨 0.8%，略好于道琼斯工业平均指数 0.7% 的涨幅。标普500上涨 0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b73c480440da121bd6da538ca389d0ef\" tg-width=\"834\" tg-height=\"414\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The Plaid is billed by Tesla as the fastest production car ever, going zero to 60 in under 2 seconds. A&nbsp;Bugatti Chiron, which costs about $2.3 million and is equipped with a 16-cylinder, four-turbocharger engine, can go zero to 60 in about 2.3 seconds.</p><p><blockquote>Plaid 被特斯拉宣传为有史以来最快的量产车，从零到 60 不到 2 秒。布加迪 Chiron 售价约 230 万美元，配备 16 缸四涡轮增压器发动机，可在约 2.3 秒内从 0 加速到 60。</blockquote></p><p> Electric motors have better torque at zero revolutions a minute, giving drivers an incredible jolt from their initial acceleration.</p><p><blockquote>电动机在每分钟零转时具有更好的扭矩，在初始加速时给驾驶员带来难以置信的震动。</blockquote></p><p> The&nbsp;Plaid edition&nbsp;of the Model S won’t cost anywhere near as much as a Chiron, but it will still run buyers $120,000 or more. Prices like that mean the car won’t sell in the high volumes seen from the Tesla Model 3 or Model Y. Those cars can be had for what a nicely equipped sedan from&nbsp;BMW&nbsp;(BMW.Germany) or evenToyota Motor&nbsp;(TM) or&nbsp;Honda&nbsp;(HMC) can cost.</p><p><blockquote>格子版 Model S 的价格远不及 Chiron，但仍将花费 12 万美元或更多。这样的价格意味着这款车的销量不会像特斯拉 Model 3 或 Model Y 那样高。这些汽车的价格与宝马 (BMW.Germany) 或丰田汽车 (TM) 或本田 (HMC) 的装备精良的轿车价格相当。</blockquote></p><p> Still, the launch highlights Tesla’s ability to update its designs. The first Model S went into production almost a decade ago. Its performance shows Tesla is improving on its technologies for battery management and electric motors.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，这次发布还是凸显了特斯拉更新设计的能力。第一辆 Model S 于近十年前投入生产。其表现表明特斯拉正在改进其电池管理和电动机技术。</blockquote></p><p> All that is important for perceptions about Tesla, but there are bigger things on investors’ minds. Tesla is building new capacity in Austin, Texas, andBerlin. Investors want to see both plants on line by the end of the year, giving Tesla the output capacity needed to increase sales.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些对人们对特斯拉的看法都很重要，但投资者心中还有更重要的事情。特斯拉正在德克萨斯奥斯汀和柏林建设新的产能。投资者希望看到这两家工厂在今年年底前上线，从而为特斯拉提供增加销量所需的产能。</blockquote></p><p> Investors also want updates about the company’s autonomous driving programs. Musk has boasted the company is close to&nbsp;achieving fully autonomous cars&nbsp;with newer versions of its self-driving software. The new versions probably won’t mean drivers can actually leave the driver seat, but better driver-assistance functions are a competitive advantage for auto makers.</p><p><blockquote>投资者还希望了解该公司自动驾驶项目的最新情况。马斯克吹嘘说，该公司即将通过新版本的自动驾驶软件实现全自动驾驶汽车。新版本可能并不意味着驾驶员可以真正离开驾驶座，但更好的驾驶辅助功能是汽车制造商的竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p> The next version of the Tesla software is due to roll out in coming weeks.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉软件的下一个版本将在未来几周内推出。</blockquote></p><p> Capacity and autonomous driving have the potential to lift the stock in coming years. The Model S Plaid can help it in coming quarters.</p><p><blockquote>产能和自动驾驶有可能在未来几年提振该股。Model S Plaid 可以在未来几个季度为其提供帮助。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla stock is in need of a lift. Shares are down about 35% from their 52-week high of more than $900, reached in January.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股票需要提振。股价较 1 月份触及的 52 周高点超过 900 美元下跌约 35%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla’s New Plaid Model Is Ready. That Should Help the Stock.<blockquote>特斯拉的新款格子图案已经准备就绪。这应该有助于股票。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla’s New Plaid Model Is Ready. That Should Help the Stock.<blockquote>特斯拉的新款格子图案已经准备就绪。这应该有助于股票。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-21 23:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tesla’s updated Model S sedan is ready.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉更新后的 Model S 轿车已经准备就绪。</blockquote></p><p> CEO Elon Musk tweeted out Thursday that his company will host a delivery event for the Plaid model of its Model S electric car on June 3. That is a milestone investors who are bullish on Tesla stock have been waiting for, but it isn’t the most important one.</p><p><blockquote>首席执行官埃隆·马斯克 (Elon Musk) 周四在推特上表示，他的公司将于 6 月 3 日举办 Model S 电动汽车格子车型的交付活动。这是看好特斯拉股票的投资者一直在等待的一个里程碑，但这并不是最重要的里程碑。</blockquote></p><p> Beginning deliveries should help the stock—-a little.</p><p><blockquote>开始交付应该会对股票有所帮助——一点点。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla(ticker: TSLA) stock rose 4.1% amid a broad market rally Thursday, but the gain still left shares down for the week. Tesla stock was up another 0.8% in Friday trading, a touch better than the 0.7% gain in the&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average.The&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;was up 0.5%.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）股价周四在大盘上涨的情况下上涨 4.1%，但涨幅仍导致本周股价下跌。特斯拉股价周五交易中又上涨 0.8%，略好于道琼斯工业平均指数 0.7% 的涨幅。标普500上涨 0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b73c480440da121bd6da538ca389d0ef\" tg-width=\"834\" tg-height=\"414\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The Plaid is billed by Tesla as the fastest production car ever, going zero to 60 in under 2 seconds. A&nbsp;Bugatti Chiron, which costs about $2.3 million and is equipped with a 16-cylinder, four-turbocharger engine, can go zero to 60 in about 2.3 seconds.</p><p><blockquote>Plaid 被特斯拉宣传为有史以来最快的量产车，从零到 60 不到 2 秒。布加迪 Chiron 售价约 230 万美元，配备 16 缸四涡轮增压器发动机，可在约 2.3 秒内从 0 加速到 60。</blockquote></p><p> Electric motors have better torque at zero revolutions a minute, giving drivers an incredible jolt from their initial acceleration.</p><p><blockquote>电动机在每分钟零转时具有更好的扭矩，在初始加速时给驾驶员带来难以置信的震动。</blockquote></p><p> The&nbsp;Plaid edition&nbsp;of the Model S won’t cost anywhere near as much as a Chiron, but it will still run buyers $120,000 or more. Prices like that mean the car won’t sell in the high volumes seen from the Tesla Model 3 or Model Y. Those cars can be had for what a nicely equipped sedan from&nbsp;BMW&nbsp;(BMW.Germany) or evenToyota Motor&nbsp;(TM) or&nbsp;Honda&nbsp;(HMC) can cost.</p><p><blockquote>格子版 Model S 的价格远不及 Chiron，但仍将花费 12 万美元或更多。这样的价格意味着这款车的销量不会像特斯拉 Model 3 或 Model Y 那样高。这些汽车的价格与宝马 (BMW.Germany) 或丰田汽车 (TM) 或本田 (HMC) 的装备精良的轿车价格相当。</blockquote></p><p> Still, the launch highlights Tesla’s ability to update its designs. The first Model S went into production almost a decade ago. Its performance shows Tesla is improving on its technologies for battery management and electric motors.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，这次发布还是凸显了特斯拉更新设计的能力。第一辆 Model S 于近十年前投入生产。其表现表明特斯拉正在改进其电池管理和电动机技术。</blockquote></p><p> All that is important for perceptions about Tesla, but there are bigger things on investors’ minds. Tesla is building new capacity in Austin, Texas, andBerlin. Investors want to see both plants on line by the end of the year, giving Tesla the output capacity needed to increase sales.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些对人们对特斯拉的看法都很重要，但投资者心中还有更重要的事情。特斯拉正在德克萨斯奥斯汀和柏林建设新的产能。投资者希望看到这两家工厂在今年年底前上线，从而为特斯拉提供增加销量所需的产能。</blockquote></p><p> Investors also want updates about the company’s autonomous driving programs. Musk has boasted the company is close to&nbsp;achieving fully autonomous cars&nbsp;with newer versions of its self-driving software. The new versions probably won’t mean drivers can actually leave the driver seat, but better driver-assistance functions are a competitive advantage for auto makers.</p><p><blockquote>投资者还希望了解该公司自动驾驶项目的最新情况。马斯克吹嘘说，该公司即将通过新版本的自动驾驶软件实现全自动驾驶汽车。新版本可能并不意味着驾驶员可以真正离开驾驶座，但更好的驾驶辅助功能是汽车制造商的竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p> The next version of the Tesla software is due to roll out in coming weeks.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉软件的下一个版本将在未来几周内推出。</blockquote></p><p> Capacity and autonomous driving have the potential to lift the stock in coming years. The Model S Plaid can help it in coming quarters.</p><p><blockquote>产能和自动驾驶有可能在未来几年提振该股。Model S Plaid 可以在未来几个季度为其提供帮助。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla stock is in need of a lift. Shares are down about 35% from their 52-week high of more than $900, reached in January.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股票需要提振。股价较 1 月份触及的 52 周高点超过 900 美元下跌约 35%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-model-s-new-plaid-model-ready-51621608150?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-model-s-new-plaid-model-ready-51621608150?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111747453","content_text":"Tesla’s updated Model S sedan is ready.\nCEO Elon Musk tweeted out Thursday that his company will host a delivery event for the Plaid model of its Model S electric car on June 3. That is a milestone investors who are bullish on Tesla stock have been waiting for, but it isn’t the most important one.\nBeginning deliveries should help the stock—-a little.\nTesla(ticker: TSLA) stock rose 4.1% amid a broad market rally Thursday, but the gain still left shares down for the week. Tesla stock was up another 0.8% in Friday trading, a touch better than the 0.7% gain in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.The S&P 500 was up 0.5%.\n\nThe Plaid is billed by Tesla as the fastest production car ever, going zero to 60 in under 2 seconds. A Bugatti Chiron, which costs about $2.3 million and is equipped with a 16-cylinder, four-turbocharger engine, can go zero to 60 in about 2.3 seconds.\nElectric motors have better torque at zero revolutions a minute, giving drivers an incredible jolt from their initial acceleration.\nThe Plaid edition of the Model S won’t cost anywhere near as much as a Chiron, but it will still run buyers $120,000 or more. Prices like that mean the car won’t sell in the high volumes seen from the Tesla Model 3 or Model Y. Those cars can be had for what a nicely equipped sedan from BMW (BMW.Germany) or evenToyota Motor (TM) or Honda (HMC) can cost.\nStill, the launch highlights Tesla’s ability to update its designs. The first Model S went into production almost a decade ago. Its performance shows Tesla is improving on its technologies for battery management and electric motors.\nAll that is important for perceptions about Tesla, but there are bigger things on investors’ minds. Tesla is building new capacity in Austin, Texas, andBerlin. Investors want to see both plants on line by the end of the year, giving Tesla the output capacity needed to increase sales.\nInvestors also want updates about the company’s autonomous driving programs. Musk has boasted the company is close to achieving fully autonomous cars with newer versions of its self-driving software. The new versions probably won’t mean drivers can actually leave the driver seat, but better driver-assistance functions are a competitive advantage for auto makers.\nThe next version of the Tesla software is due to roll out in coming weeks.\nCapacity and autonomous driving have the potential to lift the stock in coming years. The Model S Plaid can help it in coming quarters.\nTesla stock is in need of a lift. Shares are down about 35% from their 52-week high of more than $900, reached in January.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":628,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124187674,"gmtCreate":1624753901698,"gmtModify":1631885483109,"author":{"id":"3583660884205170","authorId":"3583660884205170","name":"TANKH888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59dee1a92cf748c217b1e0a4e79ec5e8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583660884205170","authorIdStr":"3583660884205170"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Time will tell","listText":"Time will tell","text":"Time will tell","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124187674","repostId":"1164137597","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1078,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":158753273,"gmtCreate":1625183494092,"gmtModify":1631890279798,"author":{"id":"3583660884205170","authorId":"3583660884205170","name":"TANKH888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59dee1a92cf748c217b1e0a4e79ec5e8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583660884205170","authorIdStr":"3583660884205170"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Still trying for a strong support","listText":"Still trying for a strong support","text":"Still trying for a strong support","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/158753273","repostId":"2148824712","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3161,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":134503915,"gmtCreate":1622246546137,"gmtModify":1634182553236,"author":{"id":"3583660884205170","authorId":"3583660884205170","name":"TANKH888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59dee1a92cf748c217b1e0a4e79ec5e8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583660884205170","authorIdStr":"3583660884205170"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"This give Tesla a chance to prove their worth","listText":"This give Tesla a chance to prove their worth","text":"This give Tesla a chance to prove their worth","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/134503915","repostId":"2138765488","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":568,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124185612,"gmtCreate":1624753741936,"gmtModify":1631890279908,"author":{"id":"3583660884205170","authorId":"3583660884205170","name":"TANKH888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59dee1a92cf748c217b1e0a4e79ec5e8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583660884205170","authorIdStr":"3583660884205170"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good test for the stock","listText":"Good test for the stock","text":"Good test for the stock","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124185612","repostId":"1189436009","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":828,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":133069452,"gmtCreate":1621670042376,"gmtModify":1634187228789,"author":{"id":"3583660884205170","authorId":"3583660884205170","name":"TANKH888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59dee1a92cf748c217b1e0a4e79ec5e8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583660884205170","authorIdStr":"3583660884205170"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Expected, crypto too high too fast..","listText":"Expected, crypto too high too fast..","text":"Expected, crypto too high too fast..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/133069452","repostId":"1174075999","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":645,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167134127,"gmtCreate":1624251337769,"gmtModify":1631883985943,"author":{"id":"3583660884205170","authorId":"3583660884205170","name":"TANKH888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59dee1a92cf748c217b1e0a4e79ec5e8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583660884205170","authorIdStr":"3583660884205170"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good. You will never know, the institution investors are the one that decide the how the price will go...&nbsp;","listText":"Good. You will never know, the institution investors are the one that decide the how the price will go...&nbsp;","text":"Good. You will never know, the institution investors are the one that decide the how the price will go...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167134127","repostId":"1175906479","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175906479","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624242000,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1175906479?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-21 10:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Winter Is Coming<blockquote>苹果：冬天来了</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175906479","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share .In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period.</li>  <li>I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).</li>  <li>From the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4dc5052119e6bbc5b693cf7385d8738\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果股价在过去五年中上涨了 449%，超过了标普500同期 102% 的涨幅。</li><li>我以中性评级和公允价值为111.42美元/股（当前价格为131.7美元/股）启动苹果。</li><li>从技术分析的角度来看，股价正在遵循上升的三角形模式，并正朝着137美元/股的目标价迈进。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images News 公司概述</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司 (AAPL) 的股价在过去五年中上涨了 449%，超过了标普500同期 102% 的涨幅。由基本面支撑的出色回报。特别是，我想从后者开始分析。</blockquote></p><p> Over the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的二十年里，苹果成功的主要驱动力一直是iPhone。2016年，iPhone手机占总销量的63%。这对苹果来说是个问题，他们知道这一点。问题的存在主要有两个因素：第一，智能手机业务成熟（增长率低）；其次，它过去是（现在仍然是）一个竞争激烈的行业。然而，苹果拥有其他竞争对手所没有的东西，庞大的iPhone用户基础（例如，这允许销售更多服务）。多年来，苹果已经能够有效地实现其收入来源的多元化，目前呈现以下结构。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4602be0c6fa92191baf04a7496c4e024\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Let's now take a look at each of these segments:</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们看看这些部分中的每一个：</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. iPhone</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1. iPhone</b></blockquote></p><p> From 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>于二零一六年至二零二零年，iPhone分部以0.20%的复合年增长率增长，并由占总销售额的63.4%（二零一六年）变为51%（「TTM」）。以下是过去5年（2016-TTM）iPhone细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/916b48499e3e3ed2c0c167af3ba62bdb\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，iPhone细分市场的TTM增长率为18.5%，这得益于具有5G功能的新iPhone12系列，以及来自中国的有趣数据。我相信向5G的过渡将是这一细分市场增长的主要驱动力。通过这种方式，我想报告第二季度盈利看涨期权的部分成绩单。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.</i>  <b>2. iPad</b></p><p><blockquote><i>在企业市场，许多行业的客户正在加速采用iPhone 12和5G作为其业务未来的关键平台。例如，达美航空公司正在将 iPhone 12 和 5G 连接交到空乘人员手中，以便他们能够在航空旅行反弹时提供尽可能最好的乘客服务。英国的 Openreach 已开始为数万名现场工程师配备 iPhone 12，以加快他们向全国各地家庭部署宽带服务。科罗拉多州的一家大型医疗保健提供商UCHealth能够将每位患者的疫苗接种时间从3分钟减少到仅30秒，这主要是通过从PC站转移到iPhone。这使得他们的工作人员能够快速扫描和登记新患者，并大大提高了他们的日常疫苗接种能力。</i><b>2、iPad</b></blockquote></p><p> As it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>与过去一样，iPad 细分市场占总销售额的比例或多或少是一个恒定的数字，2016 年为 9.6%，而 TTM 为 9.1%。从2016年到2020年，iPad细分市场的CAGR增长率为3.56%（整体趋势有所改善）。以下是iPad细分市场过去5年（2016-TTM）的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6faf9ddb8d29d662fcaa46bbda862f48\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).</p><p><blockquote>TTM数据向我们展示了一幅有趣的画面，iPad细分市场的TTM增长率为24.9%，这是由三个因素推动的：M1芯片、新的5G功能以及我们都在家的事实。我看到了新一代iPad的很多实现方式。不过，我也不得不承认，在同一片海里游泳的还有一个大玩家，新款2-1笔记本电脑。对于那些希望两全其美的人来说，新的2-1笔记本电脑是一个非常有趣的解决方案。在最后一个观点中，iPad细分市场占总销售额的比例可能较低，约为7.8%（而目前为9.1%）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Mac</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3. Mac</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> From 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>从2016年到2020年，Mac细分市场的CAGR增长率为5.81%，与iPad细分市场一样，Mac细分市场占总销售额的比例或多或少保持不变，2016年为10.6%，而TTM为10.4%。以下是过去5年（2016-TTM）Mac细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2494d89c1d5cd70a4cf0c5fb31fb20a\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.</p><p><blockquote>由M1芯片驱动的新一代Mac似乎受到了客户的赞赏，事实上，今年迄今为止，Mac细分市场的TTM增长率为18.4%。我个人尝试了新一代Mac电脑，我不得不承认，苹果非常清楚如何取悦顾客。个人电脑是一个竞争激烈的市场，即使我喜欢并使用苹果产品，我也更喜欢与联想合作。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&amp;A)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4. 可穿戴设备、家居和配件（WH&amp;A）</b></blockquote></p><p> The Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&amp;A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&amp;A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>可穿戴设备、家居和配件部门包括AirPods、苹果电视、苹果手表、Beats产品、HomePod等的销售。这就是有趣的地方。从2016年到2020年，WH&amp;A分部以28.78%的复合年增长率增长，并从2016年仅占总销售额的5.2%变为占总销售额的10.8%。以下是过去5年（2016-TTM）WH&amp;A细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e16432a1ae66aa9dda7a4f969a9cfcdf\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The WH&amp;A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).</p><p><blockquote>在苹果手表系列6和苹果手表SE的强劲表现推动下，WH&amp;A细分市场的TTM增长率为14.7%。在苹果进入医疗保健市场的推动下，苹果手表在未来几年可能会有一个非常光明的未来。事实上，它可以用来监测人的健康状况。想象一下，你即将心脏病发作，你的苹果手表可能会看涨期权一辆救护车，救了你的命，不错吧？最后，我们不要忘记苹果电视4K和最新配件AirTag的推出（我看不到后者的市场，但我可能错了）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Services</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5. 服务</b></blockquote></p><p> Services include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>服务包括公司广告、AppleCare、数字内容和其他服务的销售。于二零一六年至二零二零年，服务分部以21.9%的复合年增长率增长，并由二零一六年占总销售额的11.3%变为占总销售额的18.6%。以下是过去5年（2016-TTM）服务部门的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af34eb1ba8fffd690a75318f8cf805f7\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> To date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，服务部门的TTM增长率为12.3%。增长是由应用商店、云服务、音乐、广告和支付服务推动的。新服务苹果电视+、苹果街机、苹果新闻+和苹果卡也开始为整体服务增长做出贡献，并继续增加用户、内容和功能。我相信未来服务板块将是公司的主导板块。下面我展示了我从第四季度盈利看涨期权中推断出的一个有趣的部分。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>First, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.</i>  <b>Company Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><i>首先，我们的安装基数持续增长，并且在每个主要产品类别中都处于历史最高水平。其次，我们数字内容商店的交易账户和付费账户数量在 9 月份季度创下历史新高，我们每个地区的付费账户都增长了两位数。第三，付费订阅量连续增长超过3500万，我们现在平台上的所有服务的付费订阅量超过5.85亿，比一年前增加了1.35亿。凭借这一势头，我们非常有信心在2020年底前达到并超过6亿付费订阅的目标。</i><b>公司分析</b></blockquote></p><p> I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&amp;D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&amp;D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&amp;D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).</p><p><blockquote>我以中性评级和公允价值为111.42美元/股（当前价格为131.7美元/股）启动苹果。公允价值是一个经过算法调整的价值，考虑了基本面和技术面的不同因素（如DCF公允价值、动量等）。），因此它考虑了市场情绪。同时，我通过DCF模型获得的公允价值等于105.68美元/股。现在，在显示结果之前，用作基数的数字是过去12个月的数字。此外，我还重述了财务状况，因为我将R&amp;D费用资本化，摊销年限为3年。我不认为在苹果的情况下，R&amp;D是一项运营费用，因此，我将其视为资本支出。考虑到研发，以下指标已重述（所有数字均以百万美元为单位）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7a2222a8e8b9088e619b0b971193a1f\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is very important to capitalize on R&amp;D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.</p><p><blockquote>利用研发费用非常重要，如果我们不这样做，我们只是将公司最大的资产保留在资产负债表之外。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Discounted Cash Flow Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>贴现现金流量模型</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们转向贴现现金流估值部分。下面，你可以看到我所做的相对假设的结果。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2da633d931f51b493d897d9c87ecee5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Now, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:</p><p><blockquote>现在，这次我还提出了三种可能的情况以及我的估计：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Base Case Scenario</i>: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.</li>  <li><i>Best Case Scenario</i>: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.</li>  <li><i>Worst Case Scenario</i>: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.</li> </ul> Finally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>基本案例场景</i>：上面的DCF模型代表了我的基本案例场景。在基本情况下，我假设增长的驱动力是：iPhone细分市场（由5G转型驱动）、服务细分市场（由更广泛的客户群驱动）和新的M1 Mac细分市场。在这种情况下，我假设第一年的增长率为 12%，第二年至第五年的复合年增长率为 7.1%，第十年的目标营业利润率为 27%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为105.68美元/股。</li><li><i>最佳情况场景</i>: 生意火爆!在最佳情况下，我再次将我为基本情况描述的主要驱动因素视为主要驱动因素，然而，除此之外，我还看到了中国更大的市场渗透率。在过去5年中，我们可以观察到中国的销售额呈下降趋势，然而，今年的销售额跃升了39.7%（iPhone细分市场大幅增长）。在这种情况下，我假设第一年的增长率为 14%，第二年至第五年的复合年增长率为 9.1%，第十年的目标营业利润率为 30%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为130.32美元/股。</li><li><i>最坏情况</i>:嗯，这是一个我想看涨期权喜欢“成熟公司场景”的场景。在这种情况下，我认为苹果的增长率略高于经济增长率，因此，我假设第一年的增长率为10%，第二年至第五年的CAGR为3.1%，第十年的目标营业利润率为25%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为81.03美元/股。</li></ul>最后，对于每种情况，我都看到苹果带着苹果手表进入医疗保健市场。正如你可以想象的那样，我在每种情况下都分配了不同的市场渗透可能性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sensitivity Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>灵敏度分析</b></blockquote></p><p> Moreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我还想提供基本案例场景的敏感性分析。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95f00eba768526d07d68fd846ecf998d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Technical Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术分析</b></blockquote></p><p> From the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).</p><p><blockquote>从技术分析的角度来看，我还没有看到任何问题。股价处于看涨模式，目前处于上升三角形模式。截至目前，股价正在遵循其模式，正朝着137美元/股或D点的目标价前进，在那里它可能会反弹并回到E点。如果出现这种情况，E点通常是股价再次反弹的点，从该点开始，股票走高（这只是一个技术分析假设，按原样理解）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecf3e5f45dcb5e30b092c02bbf94d6f9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:TradingView.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&amp;P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.</p><p><blockquote>苹果是一家成熟的公司，能够提前几年发现问题并解决问题。通过观察在基本情况下计算的公允价值，我们可以说该股票目前被高估了，但没有那么高。对于关注风险，最好情况和最坏情况之间的差异可以用作风险的代表。考虑到这一点，我认为没有理由恐慌，然而，我也确实看到了市场即将出现的调整。许多技术指标和基本面指标都告诉我，目前市场过于沉重（即使标准普尔500可能会走高，也许在4400点区域）。总之，我不打算平掉我的全部苹果头寸，但是，一旦达到我的价格目标，我会平掉其中的 60%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Winter Is Coming<blockquote>苹果：冬天来了</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Winter Is Coming<blockquote>苹果：冬天来了</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-21 10:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period.</li>  <li>I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).</li>  <li>From the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4dc5052119e6bbc5b693cf7385d8738\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果股价在过去五年中上涨了 449%，超过了标普500同期 102% 的涨幅。</li><li>我以中性评级和公允价值为111.42美元/股（当前价格为131.7美元/股）启动苹果。</li><li>从技术分析的角度来看，股价正在遵循上升的三角形模式，并正朝着137美元/股的目标价迈进。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images News 公司概述</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司 (AAPL) 的股价在过去五年中上涨了 449%，超过了标普500同期 102% 的涨幅。由基本面支撑的出色回报。特别是，我想从后者开始分析。</blockquote></p><p> Over the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的二十年里，苹果成功的主要驱动力一直是iPhone。2016年，iPhone手机占总销量的63%。这对苹果来说是个问题，他们知道这一点。问题的存在主要有两个因素：第一，智能手机业务成熟（增长率低）；其次，它过去是（现在仍然是）一个竞争激烈的行业。然而，苹果拥有其他竞争对手所没有的东西，庞大的iPhone用户基础（例如，这允许销售更多服务）。多年来，苹果已经能够有效地实现其收入来源的多元化，目前呈现以下结构。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4602be0c6fa92191baf04a7496c4e024\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Let's now take a look at each of these segments:</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们看看这些部分中的每一个：</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. iPhone</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1. iPhone</b></blockquote></p><p> From 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>于二零一六年至二零二零年，iPhone分部以0.20%的复合年增长率增长，并由占总销售额的63.4%（二零一六年）变为51%（「TTM」）。以下是过去5年（2016-TTM）iPhone细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/916b48499e3e3ed2c0c167af3ba62bdb\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，iPhone细分市场的TTM增长率为18.5%，这得益于具有5G功能的新iPhone12系列，以及来自中国的有趣数据。我相信向5G的过渡将是这一细分市场增长的主要驱动力。通过这种方式，我想报告第二季度盈利看涨期权的部分成绩单。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.</i>  <b>2. iPad</b></p><p><blockquote><i>在企业市场，许多行业的客户正在加速采用iPhone 12和5G作为其业务未来的关键平台。例如，达美航空公司正在将 iPhone 12 和 5G 连接交到空乘人员手中，以便他们能够在航空旅行反弹时提供尽可能最好的乘客服务。英国的 Openreach 已开始为数万名现场工程师配备 iPhone 12，以加快他们向全国各地家庭部署宽带服务。科罗拉多州的一家大型医疗保健提供商UCHealth能够将每位患者的疫苗接种时间从3分钟减少到仅30秒，这主要是通过从PC站转移到iPhone。这使得他们的工作人员能够快速扫描和登记新患者，并大大提高了他们的日常疫苗接种能力。</i><b>2、iPad</b></blockquote></p><p> As it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>与过去一样，iPad 细分市场占总销售额的比例或多或少是一个恒定的数字，2016 年为 9.6%，而 TTM 为 9.1%。从2016年到2020年，iPad细分市场的CAGR增长率为3.56%（整体趋势有所改善）。以下是iPad细分市场过去5年（2016-TTM）的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6faf9ddb8d29d662fcaa46bbda862f48\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).</p><p><blockquote>TTM数据向我们展示了一幅有趣的画面，iPad细分市场的TTM增长率为24.9%，这是由三个因素推动的：M1芯片、新的5G功能以及我们都在家的事实。我看到了新一代iPad的很多实现方式。不过，我也不得不承认，在同一片海里游泳的还有一个大玩家，新款2-1笔记本电脑。对于那些希望两全其美的人来说，新的2-1笔记本电脑是一个非常有趣的解决方案。在最后一个观点中，iPad细分市场占总销售额的比例可能较低，约为7.8%（而目前为9.1%）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Mac</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3. Mac</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> From 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>从2016年到2020年，Mac细分市场的CAGR增长率为5.81%，与iPad细分市场一样，Mac细分市场占总销售额的比例或多或少保持不变，2016年为10.6%，而TTM为10.4%。以下是过去5年（2016-TTM）Mac细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2494d89c1d5cd70a4cf0c5fb31fb20a\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.</p><p><blockquote>由M1芯片驱动的新一代Mac似乎受到了客户的赞赏，事实上，今年迄今为止，Mac细分市场的TTM增长率为18.4%。我个人尝试了新一代Mac电脑，我不得不承认，苹果非常清楚如何取悦顾客。个人电脑是一个竞争激烈的市场，即使我喜欢并使用苹果产品，我也更喜欢与联想合作。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&amp;A)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4. 可穿戴设备、家居和配件（WH&amp;A）</b></blockquote></p><p> The Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&amp;A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&amp;A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>可穿戴设备、家居和配件部门包括AirPods、苹果电视、苹果手表、Beats产品、HomePod等的销售。这就是有趣的地方。从2016年到2020年，WH&amp;A分部以28.78%的复合年增长率增长，并从2016年仅占总销售额的5.2%变为占总销售额的10.8%。以下是过去5年（2016-TTM）WH&amp;A细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e16432a1ae66aa9dda7a4f969a9cfcdf\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The WH&amp;A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).</p><p><blockquote>在苹果手表系列6和苹果手表SE的强劲表现推动下，WH&amp;A细分市场的TTM增长率为14.7%。在苹果进入医疗保健市场的推动下，苹果手表在未来几年可能会有一个非常光明的未来。事实上，它可以用来监测人的健康状况。想象一下，你即将心脏病发作，你的苹果手表可能会看涨期权一辆救护车，救了你的命，不错吧？最后，我们不要忘记苹果电视4K和最新配件AirTag的推出（我看不到后者的市场，但我可能错了）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Services</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5. 服务</b></blockquote></p><p> Services include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>服务包括公司广告、AppleCare、数字内容和其他服务的销售。于二零一六年至二零二零年，服务分部以21.9%的复合年增长率增长，并由二零一六年占总销售额的11.3%变为占总销售额的18.6%。以下是过去5年（2016-TTM）服务部门的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af34eb1ba8fffd690a75318f8cf805f7\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> To date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，服务部门的TTM增长率为12.3%。增长是由应用商店、云服务、音乐、广告和支付服务推动的。新服务苹果电视+、苹果街机、苹果新闻+和苹果卡也开始为整体服务增长做出贡献，并继续增加用户、内容和功能。我相信未来服务板块将是公司的主导板块。下面我展示了我从第四季度盈利看涨期权中推断出的一个有趣的部分。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>First, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.</i>  <b>Company Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><i>首先，我们的安装基数持续增长，并且在每个主要产品类别中都处于历史最高水平。其次，我们数字内容商店的交易账户和付费账户数量在 9 月份季度创下历史新高，我们每个地区的付费账户都增长了两位数。第三，付费订阅量连续增长超过3500万，我们现在平台上的所有服务的付费订阅量超过5.85亿，比一年前增加了1.35亿。凭借这一势头，我们非常有信心在2020年底前达到并超过6亿付费订阅的目标。</i><b>公司分析</b></blockquote></p><p> I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&amp;D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&amp;D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&amp;D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).</p><p><blockquote>我以中性评级和公允价值为111.42美元/股（当前价格为131.7美元/股）启动苹果。公允价值是一个经过算法调整的价值，考虑了基本面和技术面的不同因素（如DCF公允价值、动量等）。），因此它考虑了市场情绪。同时，我通过DCF模型获得的公允价值等于105.68美元/股。现在，在显示结果之前，用作基数的数字是过去12个月的数字。此外，我还重述了财务状况，因为我将R&amp;D费用资本化，摊销年限为3年。我不认为在苹果的情况下，R&amp;D是一项运营费用，因此，我将其视为资本支出。考虑到研发，以下指标已重述（所有数字均以百万美元为单位）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7a2222a8e8b9088e619b0b971193a1f\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is very important to capitalize on R&amp;D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.</p><p><blockquote>利用研发费用非常重要，如果我们不这样做，我们只是将公司最大的资产保留在资产负债表之外。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Discounted Cash Flow Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>贴现现金流量模型</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们转向贴现现金流估值部分。下面，你可以看到我所做的相对假设的结果。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2da633d931f51b493d897d9c87ecee5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Now, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:</p><p><blockquote>现在，这次我还提出了三种可能的情况以及我的估计：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Base Case Scenario</i>: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.</li>  <li><i>Best Case Scenario</i>: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.</li>  <li><i>Worst Case Scenario</i>: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.</li> </ul> Finally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>基本案例场景</i>：上面的DCF模型代表了我的基本案例场景。在基本情况下，我假设增长的驱动力是：iPhone细分市场（由5G转型驱动）、服务细分市场（由更广泛的客户群驱动）和新的M1 Mac细分市场。在这种情况下，我假设第一年的增长率为 12%，第二年至第五年的复合年增长率为 7.1%，第十年的目标营业利润率为 27%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为105.68美元/股。</li><li><i>最佳情况场景</i>: 生意火爆!在最佳情况下，我再次将我为基本情况描述的主要驱动因素视为主要驱动因素，然而，除此之外，我还看到了中国更大的市场渗透率。在过去5年中，我们可以观察到中国的销售额呈下降趋势，然而，今年的销售额跃升了39.7%（iPhone细分市场大幅增长）。在这种情况下，我假设第一年的增长率为 14%，第二年至第五年的复合年增长率为 9.1%，第十年的目标营业利润率为 30%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为130.32美元/股。</li><li><i>最坏情况</i>:嗯，这是一个我想看涨期权喜欢“成熟公司场景”的场景。在这种情况下，我认为苹果的增长率略高于经济增长率，因此，我假设第一年的增长率为10%，第二年至第五年的CAGR为3.1%，第十年的目标营业利润率为25%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为81.03美元/股。</li></ul>最后，对于每种情况，我都看到苹果带着苹果手表进入医疗保健市场。正如你可以想象的那样，我在每种情况下都分配了不同的市场渗透可能性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sensitivity Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>灵敏度分析</b></blockquote></p><p> Moreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我还想提供基本案例场景的敏感性分析。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95f00eba768526d07d68fd846ecf998d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Technical Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术分析</b></blockquote></p><p> From the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).</p><p><blockquote>从技术分析的角度来看，我还没有看到任何问题。股价处于看涨模式，目前处于上升三角形模式。截至目前，股价正在遵循其模式，正朝着137美元/股或D点的目标价前进，在那里它可能会反弹并回到E点。如果出现这种情况，E点通常是股价再次反弹的点，从该点开始，股票走高（这只是一个技术分析假设，按原样理解）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecf3e5f45dcb5e30b092c02bbf94d6f9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:TradingView.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&amp;P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.</p><p><blockquote>苹果是一家成熟的公司，能够提前几年发现问题并解决问题。通过观察在基本情况下计算的公允价值，我们可以说该股票目前被高估了，但没有那么高。对于关注风险，最好情况和最坏情况之间的差异可以用作风险的代表。考虑到这一点，我认为没有理由恐慌，然而，我也确实看到了市场即将出现的调整。许多技术指标和基本面指标都告诉我，目前市场过于沉重（即使标准普尔500可能会走高，也许在4400点区域）。总之，我不打算平掉我的全部苹果头寸，但是，一旦达到我的价格目标，我会平掉其中的 60%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175906479","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).\nFrom the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.\n\nMichael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview\nApple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.\nOver the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nLet's now take a look at each of these segments:\n1. iPhone\nFrom 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report\nSo far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.\n\nIn the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.\n\n2. iPad\nAs it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).\n3. Mac\nFrom 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.\n4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&A)\nThe Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe WH&A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).\n5. Services\nServices include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nTo date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.\n\nFirst, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.\n\nCompany Analysis\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nIt is very important to capitalize on R&D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.\nDiscounted Cash Flow Model\nNow, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nNow, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:\n\nBase Case Scenario: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.\nBest Case Scenario: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.\nWorst Case Scenario: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.\n\nFinally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.\nSensitivity Analysis\nMoreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nTechnical Analysis\nFrom the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).\nSource:TradingView.com\nFinal Thoughts\nApple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":716,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}