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2021-07-24

👌

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2021-08-17

[比心]

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2021-07-22

👍

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2021-08-01

[强]

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2021-07-25

EV is the mode of transport in the future

Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote>

2021-09-25

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2021-09-11

Apple should have been a bigger man.

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2021-07-23

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2021-09-29

Actually it is a cycle of moods. Much like mood swings.

Technically Speaking: Is The Market "Melting-Up?"<blockquote>从技术上讲：市场正在“融化”吗？</blockquote>

2021-09-21

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Confluent[Happy]&nbsp;","listText":"Buy Confluent[Happy]&nbsp;","text":"Buy Confluent[Happy]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602353548","repostId":"1175631540","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175631540","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1638971326,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175631540?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-08 21:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Confluent Announces Proposed $1.0 Billion Offering of Convertible Senior Notes<blockquote>Confluent宣布拟发行10亿美元可转换优先票据</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175631540","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Confluent stock dropped 7.7% in premarket trading after announcing proposed $1.0 billion offering of","content":"<p>Confluent&nbsp;stock&nbsp;dropped&nbsp;7.7%&nbsp;in premarket trading&nbsp;after&nbsp;announcing proposed $1.0 billion offering of convertible senior notes.</p><p><blockquote>在宣布拟发行10亿美元可转换优先票据后，Confluence股价在盘前交易中下跌7.</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d476c7b993aae8544efebc2be2798615\" tg-width=\"850\" tg-height=\"620\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Confluent, Inc.(NASDAQ: CFLT)</b>,the platform for data in motion, today announced its intent to offer, subject to market conditions and other factors,$1.0 billionaggregate principal amount of Convertible Senior Notes due 2027 (the “Notes”) in a private placement (the “Offering”) to persons reasonably believed to be qualified institutional buyers pursuant to Rule 144A under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”). Confluent also intends to grant the initial purchasers of the Notes an option to purchase, within a 13-day period beginning on, and including, the date on which the Notes are first issued, up to an additional$100.0 millionaggregate principal amount of Notes.</p><p><blockquote><b>汇合公司（纳斯达克：CFLT）</b>data in motion平台今天宣布，根据市场状况和其他因素，打算以私募方式发行本金总额为10亿美元的2027年到期的可转换优先票据（“票据”）（“发行”）根据1933年证券法（经修订）（“证券法”）第144A条，向有理由相信是合格机构买家的人员。Confluent还打算授予票据的初始购买者选择权，可在票据首次发行之日起13天内额外购买最多1亿美元的票据本金总额。</blockquote></p><p> The Notes will be general unsecured obligations of Confluent and will accrue interest payable semiannually in arrears. The notes will be convertible into cash, shares of Confluent’s Class A common stock or a combination of cash and shares of Confluent’s Class A common stock, at Confluent’s election. The interest rate, initial conversion rate and other terms of the Notes will be determined at the time of pricing of the Offering.</p><p><blockquote>该票据将是Confluence的一般无担保债务，并将每半年计息一次。根据Confluent的选择，这些票据将可转换为现金、Confluent A类普通股或现金和Confluent A类普通股的组合。票据的利率、初始兑换率和其他条款将在发行定价时确定。</blockquote></p><p> Confluent expects to use a portion of the net proceeds from the Offering to pay the cost of the capped call transactions described below. Confluent expects to use the remaining net proceeds for working capital and other general corporate purposes. Confluent may also use a portion of the net proceeds for acquisitions of, or strategic investments in, complementary businesses, products, services, or technologies. If the initial purchasers exercise their option to purchase additional Notes, Confluent expects to use a portion of the net proceeds from the sale of the additional Notes to enter into additional capped call transactions with the Option Counterparties (as defined below) and the remaining net proceeds for working capital and other general corporate purposes and for acquisitions of, or strategic investments in, complementary businesses, products, services, or technologies. However, Confluent does not have any agreements or commitments to enter into any material acquisitions or investments at this time.</p><p><blockquote>Confluence预计将使用此次发行的部分净收益来支付下述上限看涨期权交易的成本。Confluence预计将剩余的净收益用于营运资金和其他一般公司用途。Confluent还可以将部分净收益用于收购或战略投资互补业务、产品、服务或技术。如果初始购买者行使购买额外票据的选择权，Confluence预计将使用出售额外票据的部分净收益与期权交易对手（定义如下）签订额外的上限看涨期权交易，剩余净收益用于营运资金和其他一般公司目的，以及收购或战略投资补充业务、产品、服务或技术。然而，Confluence目前没有任何协议或承诺进行任何重大收购或投资。</blockquote></p><p> In connection with the pricing of the Notes, Confluent expects to enter into capped call transactions with one or more of the initial purchasers or affiliates thereof and/or other financial institutions (the “Option Counterparties”). The capped call transactions will cover, subject to customary adjustments, the number of shares of Confluent’s Class A common stock initially underlying the Notes. The capped call transactions are expected generally to reduce the potential dilution to Confluent’s Class A common stock upon any conversion of Notes and/or offset any cash payments Confluent is required to make in excess of the principal amount of converted Notes, as the case may be, with such reduction and/or offset subject to a cap.</p><p><blockquote>就票据定价而言，Confluence预计将与一名或多名初始购买者或其关联公司和/或其他金融机构（“期权交易对手”）签订有上限的看涨期权交易。受限制的看涨期权交易将涵盖Confluent最初作为票据基础的A类普通股的股份数量（根据惯例进行调整）。预计有上限的看涨期权交易通常会减少任何票据转换时对Confluence A类普通股的潜在稀释和/或抵消Confluence需要支付的超过已转换票据本金额的任何现金支付（视情况而定），此类减少和/或抵消受上限限制。</blockquote></p><p> In connection with establishing their initial hedges of the capped call transactions, Confluent expects the Option Counterparties or their respective affiliates will enter into various derivative transactions with respect to Confluent’s Class A common stock and/or purchase shares of Confluent’s Class A common stock concurrently with or shortly after the pricing of the Notes, including with, or from, as the case may be, certain investors in the Notes. This activity could increase (or reduce the size of any decrease in) the market price of Confluent’s Class A common stock or the trading price of the Notes at that time.</p><p><blockquote>在建立上限看涨期权交易的初始对冲时，Confluence预计期权交易对手或其各自的关联公司将就Confluence的A类普通股进行各种衍生交易和/或在票据定价的同时或之后不久购买Confluence的A类普通股股票，包括与票据中的某些投资者或从票据中的某些投资者（视情况而定）。此活动可能会增加（或减少）Confluent A类普通股的市场价格或当时票据的交易价格。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, the Option Counterparties or their respective affiliates may modify their hedge positions by entering into or unwinding various derivatives with respect to Confluent’s Class A common stock and/or purchasing or selling Confluent’s Class A common stock or other securities of Confluent in secondary market transactions following the pricing of the Notes and prior to the maturity of the Notes (and are likely to do so during the 40 trading day period beginning on the 41st scheduled trading day prior to maturity of the Notes, or, to the extent Confluent exercises the relevant election under the capped call transactions, following any repurchase, redemption or conversion of the Notes). This activity could also cause or avoid an increase or a decrease in the market price of Confluent’s Class A common stock or the Notes which could affect a noteholder’s ability to convert the Notes and, to the extent the activity occurs during any observation period related to a conversion of Notes, this could affect the number of shares, if any, and value of the consideration that a noteholder will receive upon conversion of its Notes.</p><p><blockquote>此外，期权交易对手或其各自的关联公司可以在票据定价后和票据到期前，通过签订或平仓与Confluence A类普通股相关的各种衍生品和/或在二级市场交易中购买或出售Confluence A类普通股或Confluence的其他证券来修改其对冲头寸（并且可能在票据到期前第41个预定交易日开始的40个交易日期间这样做，或者在任何回购、赎回或转换票据后，Confluence根据上限看涨期权交易行使相关选择的范围内）。该活动还可能导致或避免Confluent A类普通股或票据的市场价格上涨或下跌，这可能会影响票据持有人转换票据的能力，并且如果该活动发生在与票据转换相关的任何观察期内，这可能会影响股份数量（如果有）以及票据持有人在转换其票据时将收到的对价价值。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The Notes and any shares of Confluent’s Class A common stock potentially issuable upon conversion of the Notes have not been and will not be registered under the Securities Act, any state securities laws or the securities laws of any other jurisdiction, and unless so registered, may not be offered or sold inthe United Statesabsent registration or an applicable exemption from, or in a transaction not subject to, the registration requirements of the Securities Act and other applicable securities laws.</p><p><blockquote>票据和票据转换后可能发行的Confluence A类普通股的任何股份尚未也不会根据《证券法》、任何州证券法或任何其他司法管辖区的证券法进行登记，除非进行了登记，否则不得在未经登记或适用豁免或不受《证券法》和其他适用证券法注册要求约束的交易中在美国发行或出售。</blockquote></p><p> This press release is neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation of an offer to buy any of these securities nor shall there be any sale of these securities in any state or jurisdiction in which such an offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to the registration or qualification thereof under the securities laws of any such state or jurisdiction.</p><p><blockquote>本新闻稿既不是出售任何这些证券的要约，也不是购买任何这些证券的要约邀请，也不是在任何州或司法管辖区出售这些证券，在这些州或司法管辖区，此类要约、招揽或出售在注册或根据任何此类州或司法管辖区的证券法获得资格之前是非法的。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Confluent Announces Proposed $1.0 Billion Offering of Convertible Senior Notes<blockquote>Confluent宣布拟发行10亿美元可转换优先票据</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nConfluent Announces Proposed $1.0 Billion Offering of Convertible Senior Notes<blockquote>Confluent宣布拟发行10亿美元可转换优先票据</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-08 21:48</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Confluent&nbsp;stock&nbsp;dropped&nbsp;7.7%&nbsp;in premarket trading&nbsp;after&nbsp;announcing proposed $1.0 billion offering of convertible senior notes.</p><p><blockquote>在宣布拟发行10亿美元可转换优先票据后，Confluence股价在盘前交易中下跌7.</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d476c7b993aae8544efebc2be2798615\" tg-width=\"850\" tg-height=\"620\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Confluent, Inc.(NASDAQ: CFLT)</b>,the platform for data in motion, today announced its intent to offer, subject to market conditions and other factors,$1.0 billionaggregate principal amount of Convertible Senior Notes due 2027 (the “Notes”) in a private placement (the “Offering”) to persons reasonably believed to be qualified institutional buyers pursuant to Rule 144A under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”). Confluent also intends to grant the initial purchasers of the Notes an option to purchase, within a 13-day period beginning on, and including, the date on which the Notes are first issued, up to an additional$100.0 millionaggregate principal amount of Notes.</p><p><blockquote><b>汇合公司（纳斯达克：CFLT）</b>data in motion平台今天宣布，根据市场状况和其他因素，打算以私募方式发行本金总额为10亿美元的2027年到期的可转换优先票据（“票据”）（“发行”）根据1933年证券法（经修订）（“证券法”）第144A条，向有理由相信是合格机构买家的人员。Confluent还打算授予票据的初始购买者选择权，可在票据首次发行之日起13天内额外购买最多1亿美元的票据本金总额。</blockquote></p><p> The Notes will be general unsecured obligations of Confluent and will accrue interest payable semiannually in arrears. The notes will be convertible into cash, shares of Confluent’s Class A common stock or a combination of cash and shares of Confluent’s Class A common stock, at Confluent’s election. The interest rate, initial conversion rate and other terms of the Notes will be determined at the time of pricing of the Offering.</p><p><blockquote>该票据将是Confluence的一般无担保债务，并将每半年计息一次。根据Confluent的选择，这些票据将可转换为现金、Confluent A类普通股或现金和Confluent A类普通股的组合。票据的利率、初始兑换率和其他条款将在发行定价时确定。</blockquote></p><p> Confluent expects to use a portion of the net proceeds from the Offering to pay the cost of the capped call transactions described below. Confluent expects to use the remaining net proceeds for working capital and other general corporate purposes. Confluent may also use a portion of the net proceeds for acquisitions of, or strategic investments in, complementary businesses, products, services, or technologies. If the initial purchasers exercise their option to purchase additional Notes, Confluent expects to use a portion of the net proceeds from the sale of the additional Notes to enter into additional capped call transactions with the Option Counterparties (as defined below) and the remaining net proceeds for working capital and other general corporate purposes and for acquisitions of, or strategic investments in, complementary businesses, products, services, or technologies. However, Confluent does not have any agreements or commitments to enter into any material acquisitions or investments at this time.</p><p><blockquote>Confluence预计将使用此次发行的部分净收益来支付下述上限看涨期权交易的成本。Confluence预计将剩余的净收益用于营运资金和其他一般公司用途。Confluent还可以将部分净收益用于收购或战略投资互补业务、产品、服务或技术。如果初始购买者行使购买额外票据的选择权，Confluence预计将使用出售额外票据的部分净收益与期权交易对手（定义如下）签订额外的上限看涨期权交易，剩余净收益用于营运资金和其他一般公司目的，以及收购或战略投资补充业务、产品、服务或技术。然而，Confluence目前没有任何协议或承诺进行任何重大收购或投资。</blockquote></p><p> In connection with the pricing of the Notes, Confluent expects to enter into capped call transactions with one or more of the initial purchasers or affiliates thereof and/or other financial institutions (the “Option Counterparties”). The capped call transactions will cover, subject to customary adjustments, the number of shares of Confluent’s Class A common stock initially underlying the Notes. The capped call transactions are expected generally to reduce the potential dilution to Confluent’s Class A common stock upon any conversion of Notes and/or offset any cash payments Confluent is required to make in excess of the principal amount of converted Notes, as the case may be, with such reduction and/or offset subject to a cap.</p><p><blockquote>就票据定价而言，Confluence预计将与一名或多名初始购买者或其关联公司和/或其他金融机构（“期权交易对手”）签订有上限的看涨期权交易。受限制的看涨期权交易将涵盖Confluent最初作为票据基础的A类普通股的股份数量（根据惯例进行调整）。预计有上限的看涨期权交易通常会减少任何票据转换时对Confluence A类普通股的潜在稀释和/或抵消Confluence需要支付的超过已转换票据本金额的任何现金支付（视情况而定），此类减少和/或抵消受上限限制。</blockquote></p><p> In connection with establishing their initial hedges of the capped call transactions, Confluent expects the Option Counterparties or their respective affiliates will enter into various derivative transactions with respect to Confluent’s Class A common stock and/or purchase shares of Confluent’s Class A common stock concurrently with or shortly after the pricing of the Notes, including with, or from, as the case may be, certain investors in the Notes. This activity could increase (or reduce the size of any decrease in) the market price of Confluent’s Class A common stock or the trading price of the Notes at that time.</p><p><blockquote>在建立上限看涨期权交易的初始对冲时，Confluence预计期权交易对手或其各自的关联公司将就Confluence的A类普通股进行各种衍生交易和/或在票据定价的同时或之后不久购买Confluence的A类普通股股票，包括与票据中的某些投资者或从票据中的某些投资者（视情况而定）。此活动可能会增加（或减少）Confluent A类普通股的市场价格或当时票据的交易价格。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, the Option Counterparties or their respective affiliates may modify their hedge positions by entering into or unwinding various derivatives with respect to Confluent’s Class A common stock and/or purchasing or selling Confluent’s Class A common stock or other securities of Confluent in secondary market transactions following the pricing of the Notes and prior to the maturity of the Notes (and are likely to do so during the 40 trading day period beginning on the 41st scheduled trading day prior to maturity of the Notes, or, to the extent Confluent exercises the relevant election under the capped call transactions, following any repurchase, redemption or conversion of the Notes). This activity could also cause or avoid an increase or a decrease in the market price of Confluent’s Class A common stock or the Notes which could affect a noteholder’s ability to convert the Notes and, to the extent the activity occurs during any observation period related to a conversion of Notes, this could affect the number of shares, if any, and value of the consideration that a noteholder will receive upon conversion of its Notes.</p><p><blockquote>此外，期权交易对手或其各自的关联公司可以在票据定价后和票据到期前，通过签订或平仓与Confluence A类普通股相关的各种衍生品和/或在二级市场交易中购买或出售Confluence A类普通股或Confluence的其他证券来修改其对冲头寸（并且可能在票据到期前第41个预定交易日开始的40个交易日期间这样做，或者在任何回购、赎回或转换票据后，Confluence根据上限看涨期权交易行使相关选择的范围内）。该活动还可能导致或避免Confluent A类普通股或票据的市场价格上涨或下跌，这可能会影响票据持有人转换票据的能力，并且如果该活动发生在与票据转换相关的任何观察期内，这可能会影响股份数量（如果有）以及票据持有人在转换其票据时将收到的对价价值。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The Notes and any shares of Confluent’s Class A common stock potentially issuable upon conversion of the Notes have not been and will not be registered under the Securities Act, any state securities laws or the securities laws of any other jurisdiction, and unless so registered, may not be offered or sold inthe United Statesabsent registration or an applicable exemption from, or in a transaction not subject to, the registration requirements of the Securities Act and other applicable securities laws.</p><p><blockquote>票据和票据转换后可能发行的Confluence A类普通股的任何股份尚未也不会根据《证券法》、任何州证券法或任何其他司法管辖区的证券法进行登记，除非进行了登记，否则不得在未经登记或适用豁免或不受《证券法》和其他适用证券法注册要求约束的交易中在美国发行或出售。</blockquote></p><p> This press release is neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation of an offer to buy any of these securities nor shall there be any sale of these securities in any state or jurisdiction in which such an offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to the registration or qualification thereof under the securities laws of any such state or jurisdiction.</p><p><blockquote>本新闻稿既不是出售任何这些证券的要约，也不是购买任何这些证券的要约邀请，也不是在任何州或司法管辖区出售这些证券，在这些州或司法管辖区，此类要约、招揽或出售在注册或根据任何此类州或司法管辖区的证券法获得资格之前是非法的。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CFLT":"Confluent, Inc."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175631540","content_text":"Confluent stock dropped 7.7% in premarket trading after announcing proposed $1.0 billion offering of convertible senior notes.\n\nConfluent, Inc.(NASDAQ: CFLT),the platform for data in motion, today announced its intent to offer, subject to market conditions and other factors,$1.0 billionaggregate principal amount of Convertible Senior Notes due 2027 (the “Notes”) in a private placement (the “Offering”) to persons reasonably believed to be qualified institutional buyers pursuant to Rule 144A under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”). Confluent also intends to grant the initial purchasers of the Notes an option to purchase, within a 13-day period beginning on, and including, the date on which the Notes are first issued, up to an additional$100.0 millionaggregate principal amount of Notes.\nThe Notes will be general unsecured obligations of Confluent and will accrue interest payable semiannually in arrears. The notes will be convertible into cash, shares of Confluent’s Class A common stock or a combination of cash and shares of Confluent’s Class A common stock, at Confluent’s election. The interest rate, initial conversion rate and other terms of the Notes will be determined at the time of pricing of the Offering.\nConfluent expects to use a portion of the net proceeds from the Offering to pay the cost of the capped call transactions described below. Confluent expects to use the remaining net proceeds for working capital and other general corporate purposes. Confluent may also use a portion of the net proceeds for acquisitions of, or strategic investments in, complementary businesses, products, services, or technologies. If the initial purchasers exercise their option to purchase additional Notes, Confluent expects to use a portion of the net proceeds from the sale of the additional Notes to enter into additional capped call transactions with the Option Counterparties (as defined below) and the remaining net proceeds for working capital and other general corporate purposes and for acquisitions of, or strategic investments in, complementary businesses, products, services, or technologies. However, Confluent does not have any agreements or commitments to enter into any material acquisitions or investments at this time.\nIn connection with the pricing of the Notes, Confluent expects to enter into capped call transactions with one or more of the initial purchasers or affiliates thereof and/or other financial institutions (the “Option Counterparties”). The capped call transactions will cover, subject to customary adjustments, the number of shares of Confluent’s Class A common stock initially underlying the Notes. The capped call transactions are expected generally to reduce the potential dilution to Confluent’s Class A common stock upon any conversion of Notes and/or offset any cash payments Confluent is required to make in excess of the principal amount of converted Notes, as the case may be, with such reduction and/or offset subject to a cap.\nIn connection with establishing their initial hedges of the capped call transactions, Confluent expects the Option Counterparties or their respective affiliates will enter into various derivative transactions with respect to Confluent’s Class A common stock and/or purchase shares of Confluent’s Class A common stock concurrently with or shortly after the pricing of the Notes, including with, or from, as the case may be, certain investors in the Notes. This activity could increase (or reduce the size of any decrease in) the market price of Confluent’s Class A common stock or the trading price of the Notes at that time.\nIn addition, the Option Counterparties or their respective affiliates may modify their hedge positions by entering into or unwinding various derivatives with respect to Confluent’s Class A common stock and/or purchasing or selling Confluent’s Class A common stock or other securities of Confluent in secondary market transactions following the pricing of the Notes and prior to the maturity of the Notes (and are likely to do so during the 40 trading day period beginning on the 41st scheduled trading day prior to maturity of the Notes, or, to the extent Confluent exercises the relevant election under the capped call transactions, following any repurchase, redemption or conversion of the Notes). This activity could also cause or avoid an increase or a decrease in the market price of Confluent’s Class A common stock or the Notes which could affect a noteholder’s ability to convert the Notes and, to the extent the activity occurs during any observation period related to a conversion of Notes, this could affect the number of shares, if any, and value of the consideration that a noteholder will receive upon conversion of its Notes.\nThe Notes and any shares of Confluent’s Class A common stock potentially issuable upon conversion of the Notes have not been and will not be registered under the Securities Act, any state securities laws or the securities laws of any other jurisdiction, and unless so registered, may not be offered or sold inthe United Statesabsent registration or an applicable exemption from, or in a transaction not subject to, the registration requirements of the Securities Act and other applicable securities laws.\nThis press release is neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation of an offer to buy any of these securities nor shall there be any sale of these securities in any state or jurisdiction in which such an offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to the registration or qualification thereof under the securities laws of any such state or jurisdiction.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CFLT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2588,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":842976372,"gmtCreate":1636128687399,"gmtModify":1636128687563,"author":{"id":"3583650394724849","authorId":"3583650394724849","name":"ThECROW","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583650394724849","idStr":"3583650394724849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Way to go[强]&nbsp;","listText":"Way to go[强]&nbsp;","text":"Way to go[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/842976372","repostId":"1173116654","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1173116654","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1636120291,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1173116654?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-05 21:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Confluent stock surged 14% in morning trading<blockquote>Confluence股票早盘飙升14%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1173116654","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Confluent stock surged 14% in morning trading after quarterly results beating expectations.\n\nConflue","content":"<p>Confluent stock surged 14% in morning trading after quarterly results beating expectations.</p><p><blockquote>季度业绩超出预期后，Confluence股价在早盘交易中飙升14%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/491afb60ce801feec7c28a82a51a62a3\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Confluent&nbsp;reported quarterly losses of $(0.17) per share which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $(0.23) by 26.09 percent. The company reported quarterly sales of $102.57 million which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $90.66 million by 13.14 percent.</p><p><blockquote>Confluence报告季度亏损为每股(0.17)美元，比分析师普遍预期的(0.23)美元高出26.09%。该公司报告季度销售额为1.0257亿美元，比分析师普遍预期的9066万美元高出13.14%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Confluent stock surged 14% in morning trading<blockquote>Confluence股票早盘飙升14%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nConfluent stock surged 14% in morning trading<blockquote>Confluence股票早盘飙升14%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-11-05 21:51</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Confluent stock surged 14% in morning trading after quarterly results beating expectations.</p><p><blockquote>季度业绩超出预期后，Confluence股价在早盘交易中飙升14%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/491afb60ce801feec7c28a82a51a62a3\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Confluent&nbsp;reported quarterly losses of $(0.17) per share which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $(0.23) by 26.09 percent. The company reported quarterly sales of $102.57 million which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $90.66 million by 13.14 percent.</p><p><blockquote>Confluence报告季度亏损为每股(0.17)美元，比分析师普遍预期的(0.23)美元高出26.09%。该公司报告季度销售额为1.0257亿美元，比分析师普遍预期的9066万美元高出13.14%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CFLT":"Confluent, Inc."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1173116654","content_text":"Confluent stock surged 14% in morning trading after quarterly results beating expectations.\n\nConfluent reported quarterly losses of $(0.17) per share which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $(0.23) by 26.09 percent. The company reported quarterly sales of $102.57 million which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $90.66 million by 13.14 percent.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CFLT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2102,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":857813129,"gmtCreate":1635517309750,"gmtModify":1635517313183,"author":{"id":"3583650394724849","authorId":"3583650394724849","name":"ThECROW","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583650394724849","idStr":"3583650394724849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[弱]&nbsp;","listText":"[弱]&nbsp;","text":"[弱]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/857813129","repostId":"1147983155","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147983155","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1635484615,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1147983155?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-29 13:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"This Indicator Is Signaling Trouble Ahead for the Stock Market<blockquote>该指标预示着股市即将遇到麻烦</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147983155","media":"Barrons","summary":"The bond market is signaling some concern over economic growth. That could spell rough waters for st","content":"<p>The bond market is signaling some concern over economic growth. That could spell rough waters for stocks in the near term: a potential buying opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>债券市场显示出对经济增长的一些担忧。这可能会在短期内给股市带来波涛汹涌：这是一个潜在的买入机会。</blockquote></p><p> The yield curve has flattened recently. The 10-year Treasury yield has fallen to 1.556% from its 2021 second-half high of 1.702%, hit a week ago, signifying that markets are less optimistic about economic demand and less concerned about the long-term inflation it could bring. Higher inflation, spurred in part by strong demand, means bond investors need higher yields to avoid losing money in real terms on the fixed payments they receive on the debt.</p><p><blockquote>收益率曲线近期趋于平坦。10年期国债收益率已从一周前触及的2021年下半年高点1.702%降至1.556%，表明市场对经济需求不太乐观，也不太担心其可能带来的长期通胀。部分由强劲需求刺激的通胀上升意味着债券投资者需要更高的收益率，以避免因债务固定付款而实际亏损。</blockquote></p><p> The 2-year yield, meanwhile, has risen to 0.49% from 0.46% a week ago, signaling that markets see the current surge in prices across the economy as lasting enough to force the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates. That would gradually reduce demand and inflation.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，2年期国债收益率已从一周前的0.46%升至0.49%，这表明市场认为当前整个经济的价格飙升足以迫使美联储加息。这将逐渐减少需求和通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p> Figures released Thursday show economic growth is slowing more than many people expected. In the third quarter, gross domestic product increased 2% from the second on a seasonally adjusted annual basis, while the consensus call among economists surveyed by FactSet had been for a 3.5% increase. Growth in the second quarter was 6.7%.</p><p><blockquote>周四公布的数据显示，经济增长放缓幅度超出了许多人的预期。经季节调整后，第三季度国内生产总值较第二季度增长2%，而FactSet调查的经济学家普遍看涨期权为增长3.5%。第二季度增长6.7%。</blockquote></p><p> “Clearly the curve flattening has been significant,” said Tony Bedikian, head of global markets at Citizens Banks. “It’s primarily driven by Fed rate hike expectations that have skyrocketed in the past few weeks.”</p><p><blockquote>公民银行全球市场主管托尼·贝迪基安(Tony Bedikian)表示：“显然，曲线变平非常显着。”“这主要是由过去几周飙升的美联储加息预期推动的。”</blockquote></p><p> The difference in yield between 2-year and 10-year debt has fallen to 1.07 percentage points from about 1.24 points a week ago.</p><p><blockquote>2年期和10年期国债收益率之差已从一周前的约1.24个百分点降至1.07个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market seems to have taken note of the bond market’s signal. Gains in the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;have slowed down. The index is up less than 1% in the past week, while it had gained just under 6% from its level on Oct. 4, the low point in a recent slump, through the close of trading a week ago.</p><p><blockquote>股市似乎已经注意到了债市的信号。标准普尔500指数的涨幅已经放缓。该指数过去一周上涨了不到1%，而截至一周前收盘，较10月4日（近期暴跌的低点）上涨了近6%。</blockquote></p><p> The slowdown in gains could turn into a selloff if the yield curve remains flat for a little while longer. That would signify that markets are more confident that the economic growth outlook is deteriorating.</p><p><blockquote>如果收益率曲线保持平坦一段时间，涨幅放缓可能会变成抛售。这将意味着市场对经济增长前景正在恶化更有信心。</blockquote></p><p> “If we get to the beginning of the new year and we’re still in a very flat yield curve environment, it’s going to raise some eyebrows that maybe there is an economic slowdown once the Fed eventually does start to hike,” Bedikian said.</p><p><blockquote>贝迪基安表示：“如果新年伊始，收益率曲线仍处于非常平坦的环境中，那么一旦美联储最终开始加息，经济可能会放缓，这将会引起一些人的担忧。”。</blockquote></p><p> That isn’t the most likely scenario. Most on Wall Street expect the yield curve to expand. The 10 year yield—at the least—could easily rise to close to 2% over time, given that long-term inflation expectations are above 2%, according to St. Louis Fed data. That is partly because, although the economic outlook has weakened, it remains positive.</p><p><blockquote>这不是最有可能的情况。华尔街大多数人预计收益率曲线将扩大。根据圣路易斯联储的数据，鉴于长期通胀预期高于2%，随着时间的推移，10年期国债收益率至少可以轻松升至接近2%。部分原因是，尽管经济前景有所减弱，但仍然乐观。</blockquote></p><p> A steeper yield curve would be a good sign for stocks, especially the more economically sensitive, cyclical ones.</p><p><blockquote>对于股票来说，更陡的收益率曲线将是一个好兆头，尤其是对经济更敏感的周期性股票。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of banks and industrial companies have fallen in the past week. The&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF&nbsp;(ticker: KBE) is down just over 2% and the&nbsp;Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF&nbsp;(XLI) has fallen about 0.5%. Those could be worth buying.</p><p><blockquote>过去一周，银行和工业公司的股价下跌。SPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF（股票代码：KBE）下跌略高于2%，工业精选行业SPDR ETF(XLI)下跌约0.5%。这些可能值得购买。</blockquote></p><p> “Fade the technical yield curve flattening and buy the dip in cyclical assets,” Marko Kolanovic, JPMorgan’s chief global markets strategist, said in a recent research note. Investors should note the message the bond market has been sending, but take it with a grain of salt.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通首席全球市场策略师马尔科·科拉诺维奇(Marko Kolanovic)在最近的一份研究报告中表示：“淡化技术性收益率曲线趋平的趋势，逢低买入周期性资产。”投资者应该注意债券市场发出的信息，但要持保留态度。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This Indicator Is Signaling Trouble Ahead for the Stock Market<blockquote>该指标预示着股市即将遇到麻烦</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis Indicator Is Signaling Trouble Ahead for the Stock Market<blockquote>该指标预示着股市即将遇到麻烦</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-29 13:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The bond market is signaling some concern over economic growth. That could spell rough waters for stocks in the near term: a potential buying opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>债券市场显示出对经济增长的一些担忧。这可能会在短期内给股市带来波涛汹涌：这是一个潜在的买入机会。</blockquote></p><p> The yield curve has flattened recently. The 10-year Treasury yield has fallen to 1.556% from its 2021 second-half high of 1.702%, hit a week ago, signifying that markets are less optimistic about economic demand and less concerned about the long-term inflation it could bring. Higher inflation, spurred in part by strong demand, means bond investors need higher yields to avoid losing money in real terms on the fixed payments they receive on the debt.</p><p><blockquote>收益率曲线近期趋于平坦。10年期国债收益率已从一周前触及的2021年下半年高点1.702%降至1.556%，表明市场对经济需求不太乐观，也不太担心其可能带来的长期通胀。部分由强劲需求刺激的通胀上升意味着债券投资者需要更高的收益率，以避免因债务固定付款而实际亏损。</blockquote></p><p> The 2-year yield, meanwhile, has risen to 0.49% from 0.46% a week ago, signaling that markets see the current surge in prices across the economy as lasting enough to force the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates. That would gradually reduce demand and inflation.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，2年期国债收益率已从一周前的0.46%升至0.49%，这表明市场认为当前整个经济的价格飙升足以迫使美联储加息。这将逐渐减少需求和通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p> Figures released Thursday show economic growth is slowing more than many people expected. In the third quarter, gross domestic product increased 2% from the second on a seasonally adjusted annual basis, while the consensus call among economists surveyed by FactSet had been for a 3.5% increase. Growth in the second quarter was 6.7%.</p><p><blockquote>周四公布的数据显示，经济增长放缓幅度超出了许多人的预期。经季节调整后，第三季度国内生产总值较第二季度增长2%，而FactSet调查的经济学家普遍看涨期权为增长3.5%。第二季度增长6.7%。</blockquote></p><p> “Clearly the curve flattening has been significant,” said Tony Bedikian, head of global markets at Citizens Banks. “It’s primarily driven by Fed rate hike expectations that have skyrocketed in the past few weeks.”</p><p><blockquote>公民银行全球市场主管托尼·贝迪基安(Tony Bedikian)表示：“显然，曲线变平非常显着。”“这主要是由过去几周飙升的美联储加息预期推动的。”</blockquote></p><p> The difference in yield between 2-year and 10-year debt has fallen to 1.07 percentage points from about 1.24 points a week ago.</p><p><blockquote>2年期和10年期国债收益率之差已从一周前的约1.24个百分点降至1.07个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market seems to have taken note of the bond market’s signal. Gains in the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;have slowed down. The index is up less than 1% in the past week, while it had gained just under 6% from its level on Oct. 4, the low point in a recent slump, through the close of trading a week ago.</p><p><blockquote>股市似乎已经注意到了债市的信号。标准普尔500指数的涨幅已经放缓。该指数过去一周上涨了不到1%，而截至一周前收盘，较10月4日（近期暴跌的低点）上涨了近6%。</blockquote></p><p> The slowdown in gains could turn into a selloff if the yield curve remains flat for a little while longer. That would signify that markets are more confident that the economic growth outlook is deteriorating.</p><p><blockquote>如果收益率曲线保持平坦一段时间，涨幅放缓可能会变成抛售。这将意味着市场对经济增长前景正在恶化更有信心。</blockquote></p><p> “If we get to the beginning of the new year and we’re still in a very flat yield curve environment, it’s going to raise some eyebrows that maybe there is an economic slowdown once the Fed eventually does start to hike,” Bedikian said.</p><p><blockquote>贝迪基安表示：“如果新年伊始，收益率曲线仍处于非常平坦的环境中，那么一旦美联储最终开始加息，经济可能会放缓，这将会引起一些人的担忧。”。</blockquote></p><p> That isn’t the most likely scenario. Most on Wall Street expect the yield curve to expand. The 10 year yield—at the least—could easily rise to close to 2% over time, given that long-term inflation expectations are above 2%, according to St. Louis Fed data. That is partly because, although the economic outlook has weakened, it remains positive.</p><p><blockquote>这不是最有可能的情况。华尔街大多数人预计收益率曲线将扩大。根据圣路易斯联储的数据，鉴于长期通胀预期高于2%，随着时间的推移，10年期国债收益率至少可以轻松升至接近2%。部分原因是，尽管经济前景有所减弱，但仍然乐观。</blockquote></p><p> A steeper yield curve would be a good sign for stocks, especially the more economically sensitive, cyclical ones.</p><p><blockquote>对于股票来说，更陡的收益率曲线将是一个好兆头，尤其是对经济更敏感的周期性股票。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of banks and industrial companies have fallen in the past week. The&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF&nbsp;(ticker: KBE) is down just over 2% and the&nbsp;Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF&nbsp;(XLI) has fallen about 0.5%. Those could be worth buying.</p><p><blockquote>过去一周，银行和工业公司的股价下跌。SPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF（股票代码：KBE）下跌略高于2%，工业精选行业SPDR ETF(XLI)下跌约0.5%。这些可能值得购买。</blockquote></p><p> “Fade the technical yield curve flattening and buy the dip in cyclical assets,” Marko Kolanovic, JPMorgan’s chief global markets strategist, said in a recent research note. Investors should note the message the bond market has been sending, but take it with a grain of salt.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通首席全球市场策略师马尔科·科拉诺维奇(Marko Kolanovic)在最近的一份研究报告中表示：“淡化技术性收益率曲线趋平的趋势，逢低买入周期性资产。”投资者应该注意债券市场发出的信息，但要持保留态度。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-yield-curve-bonds-51635440287?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-yield-curve-bonds-51635440287?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147983155","content_text":"The bond market is signaling some concern over economic growth. That could spell rough waters for stocks in the near term: a potential buying opportunity.\nThe yield curve has flattened recently. The 10-year Treasury yield has fallen to 1.556% from its 2021 second-half high of 1.702%, hit a week ago, signifying that markets are less optimistic about economic demand and less concerned about the long-term inflation it could bring. Higher inflation, spurred in part by strong demand, means bond investors need higher yields to avoid losing money in real terms on the fixed payments they receive on the debt.\nThe 2-year yield, meanwhile, has risen to 0.49% from 0.46% a week ago, signaling that markets see the current surge in prices across the economy as lasting enough to force the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates. That would gradually reduce demand and inflation.\nFigures released Thursday show economic growth is slowing more than many people expected. In the third quarter, gross domestic product increased 2% from the second on a seasonally adjusted annual basis, while the consensus call among economists surveyed by FactSet had been for a 3.5% increase. Growth in the second quarter was 6.7%.\n“Clearly the curve flattening has been significant,” said Tony Bedikian, head of global markets at Citizens Banks. “It’s primarily driven by Fed rate hike expectations that have skyrocketed in the past few weeks.”\nThe difference in yield between 2-year and 10-year debt has fallen to 1.07 percentage points from about 1.24 points a week ago.\nThe stock market seems to have taken note of the bond market’s signal. Gains in the S&P 500 have slowed down. The index is up less than 1% in the past week, while it had gained just under 6% from its level on Oct. 4, the low point in a recent slump, through the close of trading a week ago.\nThe slowdown in gains could turn into a selloff if the yield curve remains flat for a little while longer. That would signify that markets are more confident that the economic growth outlook is deteriorating.\n“If we get to the beginning of the new year and we’re still in a very flat yield curve environment, it’s going to raise some eyebrows that maybe there is an economic slowdown once the Fed eventually does start to hike,” Bedikian said.\nThat isn’t the most likely scenario. Most on Wall Street expect the yield curve to expand. The 10 year yield—at the least—could easily rise to close to 2% over time, given that long-term inflation expectations are above 2%, according to St. Louis Fed data. That is partly because, although the economic outlook has weakened, it remains positive.\nA steeper yield curve would be a good sign for stocks, especially the more economically sensitive, cyclical ones.\nShares of banks and industrial companies have fallen in the past week. The SPDR S&P Bank ETF (ticker: KBE) is down just over 2% and the Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLI) has fallen about 0.5%. Those could be worth buying.\n“Fade the technical yield curve flattening and buy the dip in cyclical assets,” Marko Kolanovic, JPMorgan’s chief global markets strategist, said in a recent research note. Investors should note the message the bond market has been sending, but take it with a grain of salt.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2410,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":862569073,"gmtCreate":1632891004819,"gmtModify":1632891004951,"author":{"id":"3583650394724849","authorId":"3583650394724849","name":"ThECROW","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583650394724849","idStr":"3583650394724849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Actually it is a cycle of moods. Much like mood swings.","listText":"Actually it is a cycle of moods. Much like mood swings.","text":"Actually it is a cycle of moods. Much like mood swings.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862569073","repostId":"1198528044","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198528044","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632882697,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198528044?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-29 10:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Technically Speaking: Is The Market \"Melting-Up?\"<blockquote>从技术上讲：市场正在“融化”吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198528044","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nGiven the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protect","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.</li>  <li>As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.</li>  <li>While it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent “this time is different”.</li> </ul> Is the<i>“market melting-up?”</i>Such was the question I received from my colleague at<i>Cut The Crap Investing.</i>It is an excellent question given the relentless increase in what investors believe is a<i>“no risk”</i>market.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>鉴于美联储正在进行的资产负债表操作，投资者完全相信他们有能力免受经济衰退的影响。</li><li>与往常一样，投资大众相信未来的收益将证明在融化期间价格上涨是合理的。从来都不是那样的。</li><li>虽然在融化持续期间利用它是至关重要的，但不要过于自满“这次不同了”。</li></ul>是<i>“市场融化？”</i>这是我从我的同事那里收到的问题<i>少废话投资。</i>考虑到投资者认为的持续增长，这是一个很好的问题<i>“没有风险”</i>市场。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, we need a definition of precisely what constitutes a melt-up.</p><p><blockquote>当然，我们需要一个准确定义什么是融化。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“A melt-up is a sustained and often unexpected improvement in the investment performance of an asset or asset class, driven partly</i>  <i><b>by a stampede of investors who don’t want to miss out on its rise,</b></i>  <i>rather than by fundamental improvements in the economy.“</i>–  <i>Investopedia</i>  Currently, there is sufficient evidence to support the idea of an exuberant market.<b><i>As noted previously:</i></b></p><p><blockquote><i>他说：“熔断是指一项资产或资产类别的投资表现持续且往往出乎意料的改善，部分原因是</i><i><b>不想错过其上涨机会的投资者蜂拥而至，</b></i><i>而不是经济的根本改善。”</i>–<i>投资百科</i>目前，有足够的证据支持市场繁荣的观点。<b><i>如前所述：</i></b></blockquote></p><p>   <i>“Near peaks of market cycles, investors become swept up by the underlying exuberance. That exuberance breeds the “rationalization” that “this time is different.” So how do you know the market is exuberant currently? Via Sentiment Trader:”</i>    <i>‘This type of market activity is an indication that markets have returned their ‘enthusiasm’ stage. Such is characterized by:’</i>  <ul>  <li><b><i>High optimism</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Easy credit (too easy, with loose terms)</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>A rush of initial and secondary offerings</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Risky stocks outperforming</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Stretched valuations</i></b></li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff8de3a84084162ca86b415584bbf793\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><i>“在市场周期接近峰值时，投资者会被潜在的繁荣所席卷。这种繁荣滋生了“合理化”，即“这次不同了”。那么，你如何知道市场目前是繁荣的呢？通过情绪交易者：”</i><i>这种类型的市场活动表明市场已经回到了“热情”阶段。其特征在于：</i><ul><li><b><i>高度乐观</i></b></li><li><b><i>宽松信贷（太宽松，条款宽松）</i></b></li><li><b><i>首次和二次发行热潮</i></b></li><li><b><i>风险股跑赢大盘</i></b></li><li><b><i>估值过高</i></b></li></ul></blockquote></p><p> However, while one would expect individuals to exhibit caution in such an environment, the opposite is true. Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.</p><p><blockquote>然而，虽然人们会期望个人在这样的环境中表现出谨慎，但事实恰恰相反。鉴于美联储正在进行的资产负债表操作，投资者完全相信他们有能力免受经济衰退的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Visualization Of A Market Melting-Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场融化的可视化</b></blockquote></p><p> It is often easier to visualize something rather than explain it.<b>Since 1900, only two previous market periods qualify as a melt-up: 1920-1929 and 1995-2000.</b>The chart below shows both periods in terms of price.</p><p><blockquote>想象某事通常比解释它更容易。<b>自1900年以来，只有两个市场时期符合熔化的条件：1920-1929年和1995-2000年。</b>下图显示了这两个时期的价格。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a218c7efe2ebd874d05c9ff7dd564436\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f193c9c32d55747bf7ff511c2f9fd53\" tg-width=\"793\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> However, the melt-up is also visually represented by the incredibly sharp rise in valuations. Such is essential because earnings are not rising at a fast enough clip to support higher prices.<b>As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，估值的大幅上涨也直观地体现了这种融化。这一点至关重要，因为盈利增长速度不足以支撑价格上涨。<b>与往常一样，投资大众相信未来的收益将证明在融化期间价格上涨是合理的。从来都不是那样的。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c69e418d5a19d6fd03b305ab111e3be3\" tg-width=\"794\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af03d3bbd071b8edfdf3a19e2c7b0bcd\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We can compare those two previous periods with the current advance from the March 2020 lows. Again, we see a very similar sharp advance in price combined with a surge in valuations. As expected, investors are currently hoping that future earnings will rise sharply enough to justify current prices. However, the justification for paying high prices is the Federal Reserve’s ongoing balance sheet expansion.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以将前两个时期与当前从2020年3月低点的上涨进行比较。我们再次看到非常相似的价格大幅上涨和估值飙升。正如预期的那样，投资者目前希望未来收益将大幅上涨，足以证明当前价格的合理性。然而，支付高价的理由是美联储持续的资产负债表扩张。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3562aea27b24ad4921d0f5cd497e072\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"444\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The following chart looks that the price advance and valuation measures a little differently. It shows the current deviation from the long-term exponential growth trend. Not surprisingly, during a market<i>“melt-up,”</i>there is a rapid deviation from the growth trend matching the acceleration in valuations.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示，价格上涨和估值指标略有不同。它显示了当前与长期指数增长趋势的背离。毫不奇怪，在市场期间<i>“融化。”</i>与估值加速相匹配的增长趋势出现了快速背离。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1419cf4b2afdcdc0f61e0cad862f498d\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The problem with market<i>“melt-ups”</i>is not the melt-up itself but what always follows.</p><p><blockquote>市场的问题<i>“融化”</i>不是融化本身，而是随之而来的一切。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Melting-Up Leads To Melting-Down</b></p><p><blockquote><b>熔化导致熔化</b></blockquote></p><p> A market melting-up is exciting while it lasts. During melt-ups, investors begin to rationalize why<i>“this time is different.”</i>They start taking on excess leverage to try and capitalize on the rapid advance in prices, and fundamentals take a back seat to price momentum.</p><p><blockquote>市场融化持续下去是令人兴奋的。在熔断期间，投资者开始合理化原因<i>“这次不一样。”</i>他们开始过度杠杆，试图利用价格的快速上涨，基本面让位于价格动能。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Market melt-ups are all about<i>“psychology.”</i><b>Historically, whatever has been the catalyst to spark the disregard of risk is readily witnessed in the corresponding surge in price and valuations.</b>The chart below shows the long-term deviations in relative strength, deviations, and valuations. The previous<i>‘melt-up”</i>periods should be easy to spot when compared with the advance currently.</p><p><blockquote>市场融化都是关于<i>“心理学。”</i><b>从历史上看，无论引发忽视风险的催化剂是什么，都很容易在价格和估值的相应飙升中看到。</b>下图显示了相对强度、偏差和估值的长期偏差。上一篇<i>“融化”</i>与目前的进展相比，时期应该很容易发现。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc04cb25c0199dd17475a551a5dd7ec1\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Given that current extensions match only a few rare periods in history, a couple of points should be readily apparent.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于目前的延期仅与历史上少数罕见的时期相匹配，有几点应该是显而易见的。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><b><i>Melt-ups can longer than logic would predict.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>The prevailing psychology is always “this time is different.”</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Valuations are dismissed in exchange for measures of momentum and forward expectations.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Investors take on excess leverage and risk in order to participate in a seemingly “can’t lose” market.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Lastly, and inevitably, “melt-ups” end and always in the worst possible outcomes.</i></b></li> </ol> It is essential to recognize the markets are in a<i>“melt-up,</i>” and the duration of that event is unknowable. Therefore, investors need a strategy to participate in the advance and mitigate the damage from the eventual<i>“melting-down.”</i></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><b><i>融化的时间可能比逻辑预测的要长。</i></b></li><li><b><i>普遍的心理总是“这次不一样了”。</i></b></li><li><b><i>估值被驳回，以换取动量和前瞻性预期的衡量标准。</i></b></li><li><b><i>投资者为了参与一个看似“输不起”的市场，承担了过多的杠杆和风险。</i></b></li><li><b><i>最后，不可避免的是，“融化”以最糟糕的结果告终。</i></b></li></ol>必须认识到市场正处于<i>“融化，</i>“而且该事件的持续时间是未知的。因此，投资者需要一种策略来参与提前并减轻最终的损失<i>“熔化。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Surviving The Melt-Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在融化中幸存下来</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>As noted, none of this means the next</b><b><i>“bear market”</i></b><b>is lurking.</b>Given that a market melting-up is a function of psychology, they can last longer and go further than logic would predict. What is required to “<i>end”</i>a melt-up is an unanticipated exogenous event that changes psychology from bullish to bearish. Such is when the stampede for the exits occurs, and prices decline very quickly.</p><p><blockquote><b>如上所述，这些都不意味着下一个</b><b><i>“熊市”</i></b><b>正在潜伏。</b>鉴于市场融化是心理作用，它们可以持续更长时间，走得比逻辑预测的更远。需要什么“<i>结束“</i>融化是一种意想不到的外生事件，它将心理从看涨转变为看跌。这就是人们蜂拥退出的时候，价格会迅速下跌。</blockquote></p><p> As such, investors need a set of guidelines to participate in the market advance. But, of course, the hard part is keeping those gains when corrections inevitably occur.</p><p><blockquote>因此，投资者需要一套指导方针来参与市场上涨。但是，当然，困难的部分是在不可避免地发生调整时保持这些收益。</blockquote></p><p> As portfolio managers for our clients, such is precisely the approach we must take. Accordingly, I have provided a general overview of the process that we employ.</p><p><blockquote>作为客户的投资组合经理，这正是我们必须采取的方法。因此，我提供了我们采用的流程的总体概述。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><i><b>Tighten up stop-loss levels</b></i><i>to current support levels for each position.(Provides identifiable exit points when the market reverses.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Hedge portfolios</b></i><i>against major market declines.(Non-correlated assets, short-market positions, index put options)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Take profits</b></i><i>in positions that have been big winners(Rebalancing overbought or extended positions to capture gains but continue to participate in the advance.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Sell laggards</b></i><i>and losers</i>.<i>(If something isn’t working in a market melt-up, it most likely won’t work during a broad decline. Better to eliminate the risk early.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Raise cash</b></i><i>and rebalance portfolios to target weightings.(Rebalancing risk on a regular basis keeps hidden risks somewhat mitigated.)</i></li> </ol> <b>Notice, nothing in there says,</b><b><i>“sell everything and go to cash.”</i></b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><i><b>收紧止损水平</b></i><i>每个头寸的当前支撑位。（当市场反转时提供可识别的退出点。）</i></li><li><i><b>对冲投资组合</b></i><i>（非相关资产、空头市场头寸、指数看跌期权）</i></li><li><i><b>获利了结</b></i><i>在已经成为大赢家的头寸中（重新平衡超买或扩展头寸以获取收益，但继续参与上涨。）</i></li><li><i><b>出售落后者</b></i><i>和失败者</i>.<i>（如果某些东西在市场融化时不起作用，那么在广泛下跌时很可能也不会起作用。最好尽早消除风险。）</i></li><li><i><b>筹集现金</b></i><i>并重新平衡投资组合以达到目标权重。（定期重新平衡风险可以在一定程度上减轻隐藏的风险。）</i></li></ol><b>注意，里面没有任何东西说，</b><b><i>“卖掉所有东西，去兑现。”</i></b></blockquote></p><p> There will be a time to raise significant levels of cash. A good portfolio management strategy will automatically ensure that<i>“stop-loss”</i>levels get triggered, exposure decreases, and cash levels rise when the selling begins.</p><p><blockquote>将会有一段时间来筹集大量现金。一个好的投资组合管理策略将自动确保<i>“止损”</i>当出售开始时，水平被触发，风险减少，现金水平上升。</blockquote></p><p> While it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent<i>“this time is different.”</i></p><p><blockquote>虽然有必要在融化持续期间利用它，但不要过于自满<i>“这次不一样。”</i></blockquote></p><p> It likely isn’t.</p><p><blockquote>很可能不是。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Technically Speaking: Is The Market \"Melting-Up?\"<blockquote>从技术上讲：市场正在“融化”吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTechnically Speaking: Is The Market \"Melting-Up?\"<blockquote>从技术上讲：市场正在“融化”吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-29 10:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.</li>  <li>As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.</li>  <li>While it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent “this time is different”.</li> </ul> Is the<i>“market melting-up?”</i>Such was the question I received from my colleague at<i>Cut The Crap Investing.</i>It is an excellent question given the relentless increase in what investors believe is a<i>“no risk”</i>market.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>鉴于美联储正在进行的资产负债表操作，投资者完全相信他们有能力免受经济衰退的影响。</li><li>与往常一样，投资大众相信未来的收益将证明在融化期间价格上涨是合理的。从来都不是那样的。</li><li>虽然在融化持续期间利用它是至关重要的，但不要过于自满“这次不同了”。</li></ul>是<i>“市场融化？”</i>这是我从我的同事那里收到的问题<i>少废话投资。</i>考虑到投资者认为的持续增长，这是一个很好的问题<i>“没有风险”</i>市场。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, we need a definition of precisely what constitutes a melt-up.</p><p><blockquote>当然，我们需要一个准确定义什么是融化。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“A melt-up is a sustained and often unexpected improvement in the investment performance of an asset or asset class, driven partly</i>  <i><b>by a stampede of investors who don’t want to miss out on its rise,</b></i>  <i>rather than by fundamental improvements in the economy.“</i>–  <i>Investopedia</i>  Currently, there is sufficient evidence to support the idea of an exuberant market.<b><i>As noted previously:</i></b></p><p><blockquote><i>他说：“熔断是指一项资产或资产类别的投资表现持续且往往出乎意料的改善，部分原因是</i><i><b>不想错过其上涨机会的投资者蜂拥而至，</b></i><i>而不是经济的根本改善。”</i>–<i>投资百科</i>目前，有足够的证据支持市场繁荣的观点。<b><i>如前所述：</i></b></blockquote></p><p>   <i>“Near peaks of market cycles, investors become swept up by the underlying exuberance. That exuberance breeds the “rationalization” that “this time is different.” So how do you know the market is exuberant currently? Via Sentiment Trader:”</i>    <i>‘This type of market activity is an indication that markets have returned their ‘enthusiasm’ stage. Such is characterized by:’</i>  <ul>  <li><b><i>High optimism</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Easy credit (too easy, with loose terms)</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>A rush of initial and secondary offerings</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Risky stocks outperforming</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Stretched valuations</i></b></li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff8de3a84084162ca86b415584bbf793\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><i>“在市场周期接近峰值时，投资者会被潜在的繁荣所席卷。这种繁荣滋生了“合理化”，即“这次不同了”。那么，你如何知道市场目前是繁荣的呢？通过情绪交易者：”</i><i>这种类型的市场活动表明市场已经回到了“热情”阶段。其特征在于：</i><ul><li><b><i>高度乐观</i></b></li><li><b><i>宽松信贷（太宽松，条款宽松）</i></b></li><li><b><i>首次和二次发行热潮</i></b></li><li><b><i>风险股跑赢大盘</i></b></li><li><b><i>估值过高</i></b></li></ul></blockquote></p><p> However, while one would expect individuals to exhibit caution in such an environment, the opposite is true. Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.</p><p><blockquote>然而，虽然人们会期望个人在这样的环境中表现出谨慎，但事实恰恰相反。鉴于美联储正在进行的资产负债表操作，投资者完全相信他们有能力免受经济衰退的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Visualization Of A Market Melting-Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场融化的可视化</b></blockquote></p><p> It is often easier to visualize something rather than explain it.<b>Since 1900, only two previous market periods qualify as a melt-up: 1920-1929 and 1995-2000.</b>The chart below shows both periods in terms of price.</p><p><blockquote>想象某事通常比解释它更容易。<b>自1900年以来，只有两个市场时期符合熔化的条件：1920-1929年和1995-2000年。</b>下图显示了这两个时期的价格。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a218c7efe2ebd874d05c9ff7dd564436\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f193c9c32d55747bf7ff511c2f9fd53\" tg-width=\"793\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> However, the melt-up is also visually represented by the incredibly sharp rise in valuations. Such is essential because earnings are not rising at a fast enough clip to support higher prices.<b>As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，估值的大幅上涨也直观地体现了这种融化。这一点至关重要，因为盈利增长速度不足以支撑价格上涨。<b>与往常一样，投资大众相信未来的收益将证明在融化期间价格上涨是合理的。从来都不是那样的。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c69e418d5a19d6fd03b305ab111e3be3\" tg-width=\"794\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af03d3bbd071b8edfdf3a19e2c7b0bcd\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We can compare those two previous periods with the current advance from the March 2020 lows. Again, we see a very similar sharp advance in price combined with a surge in valuations. As expected, investors are currently hoping that future earnings will rise sharply enough to justify current prices. However, the justification for paying high prices is the Federal Reserve’s ongoing balance sheet expansion.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以将前两个时期与当前从2020年3月低点的上涨进行比较。我们再次看到非常相似的价格大幅上涨和估值飙升。正如预期的那样，投资者目前希望未来收益将大幅上涨，足以证明当前价格的合理性。然而，支付高价的理由是美联储持续的资产负债表扩张。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3562aea27b24ad4921d0f5cd497e072\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"444\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The following chart looks that the price advance and valuation measures a little differently. It shows the current deviation from the long-term exponential growth trend. Not surprisingly, during a market<i>“melt-up,”</i>there is a rapid deviation from the growth trend matching the acceleration in valuations.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示，价格上涨和估值指标略有不同。它显示了当前与长期指数增长趋势的背离。毫不奇怪，在市场期间<i>“融化。”</i>与估值加速相匹配的增长趋势出现了快速背离。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1419cf4b2afdcdc0f61e0cad862f498d\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The problem with market<i>“melt-ups”</i>is not the melt-up itself but what always follows.</p><p><blockquote>市场的问题<i>“融化”</i>不是融化本身，而是随之而来的一切。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Melting-Up Leads To Melting-Down</b></p><p><blockquote><b>熔化导致熔化</b></blockquote></p><p> A market melting-up is exciting while it lasts. During melt-ups, investors begin to rationalize why<i>“this time is different.”</i>They start taking on excess leverage to try and capitalize on the rapid advance in prices, and fundamentals take a back seat to price momentum.</p><p><blockquote>市场融化持续下去是令人兴奋的。在熔断期间，投资者开始合理化原因<i>“这次不一样。”</i>他们开始过度杠杆，试图利用价格的快速上涨，基本面让位于价格动能。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Market melt-ups are all about<i>“psychology.”</i><b>Historically, whatever has been the catalyst to spark the disregard of risk is readily witnessed in the corresponding surge in price and valuations.</b>The chart below shows the long-term deviations in relative strength, deviations, and valuations. The previous<i>‘melt-up”</i>periods should be easy to spot when compared with the advance currently.</p><p><blockquote>市场融化都是关于<i>“心理学。”</i><b>从历史上看，无论引发忽视风险的催化剂是什么，都很容易在价格和估值的相应飙升中看到。</b>下图显示了相对强度、偏差和估值的长期偏差。上一篇<i>“融化”</i>与目前的进展相比，时期应该很容易发现。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc04cb25c0199dd17475a551a5dd7ec1\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Given that current extensions match only a few rare periods in history, a couple of points should be readily apparent.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于目前的延期仅与历史上少数罕见的时期相匹配，有几点应该是显而易见的。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><b><i>Melt-ups can longer than logic would predict.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>The prevailing psychology is always “this time is different.”</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Valuations are dismissed in exchange for measures of momentum and forward expectations.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Investors take on excess leverage and risk in order to participate in a seemingly “can’t lose” market.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Lastly, and inevitably, “melt-ups” end and always in the worst possible outcomes.</i></b></li> </ol> It is essential to recognize the markets are in a<i>“melt-up,</i>” and the duration of that event is unknowable. Therefore, investors need a strategy to participate in the advance and mitigate the damage from the eventual<i>“melting-down.”</i></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><b><i>融化的时间可能比逻辑预测的要长。</i></b></li><li><b><i>普遍的心理总是“这次不一样了”。</i></b></li><li><b><i>估值被驳回，以换取动量和前瞻性预期的衡量标准。</i></b></li><li><b><i>投资者为了参与一个看似“输不起”的市场，承担了过多的杠杆和风险。</i></b></li><li><b><i>最后，不可避免的是，“融化”以最糟糕的结果告终。</i></b></li></ol>必须认识到市场正处于<i>“融化，</i>“而且该事件的持续时间是未知的。因此，投资者需要一种策略来参与提前并减轻最终的损失<i>“熔化。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Surviving The Melt-Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在融化中幸存下来</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>As noted, none of this means the next</b><b><i>“bear market”</i></b><b>is lurking.</b>Given that a market melting-up is a function of psychology, they can last longer and go further than logic would predict. What is required to “<i>end”</i>a melt-up is an unanticipated exogenous event that changes psychology from bullish to bearish. Such is when the stampede for the exits occurs, and prices decline very quickly.</p><p><blockquote><b>如上所述，这些都不意味着下一个</b><b><i>“熊市”</i></b><b>正在潜伏。</b>鉴于市场融化是心理作用，它们可以持续更长时间，走得比逻辑预测的更远。需要什么“<i>结束“</i>融化是一种意想不到的外生事件，它将心理从看涨转变为看跌。这就是人们蜂拥退出的时候，价格会迅速下跌。</blockquote></p><p> As such, investors need a set of guidelines to participate in the market advance. But, of course, the hard part is keeping those gains when corrections inevitably occur.</p><p><blockquote>因此，投资者需要一套指导方针来参与市场上涨。但是，当然，困难的部分是在不可避免地发生调整时保持这些收益。</blockquote></p><p> As portfolio managers for our clients, such is precisely the approach we must take. Accordingly, I have provided a general overview of the process that we employ.</p><p><blockquote>作为客户的投资组合经理，这正是我们必须采取的方法。因此，我提供了我们采用的流程的总体概述。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><i><b>Tighten up stop-loss levels</b></i><i>to current support levels for each position.(Provides identifiable exit points when the market reverses.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Hedge portfolios</b></i><i>against major market declines.(Non-correlated assets, short-market positions, index put options)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Take profits</b></i><i>in positions that have been big winners(Rebalancing overbought or extended positions to capture gains but continue to participate in the advance.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Sell laggards</b></i><i>and losers</i>.<i>(If something isn’t working in a market melt-up, it most likely won’t work during a broad decline. Better to eliminate the risk early.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Raise cash</b></i><i>and rebalance portfolios to target weightings.(Rebalancing risk on a regular basis keeps hidden risks somewhat mitigated.)</i></li> </ol> <b>Notice, nothing in there says,</b><b><i>“sell everything and go to cash.”</i></b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><i><b>收紧止损水平</b></i><i>每个头寸的当前支撑位。（当市场反转时提供可识别的退出点。）</i></li><li><i><b>对冲投资组合</b></i><i>（非相关资产、空头市场头寸、指数看跌期权）</i></li><li><i><b>获利了结</b></i><i>在已经成为大赢家的头寸中（重新平衡超买或扩展头寸以获取收益，但继续参与上涨。）</i></li><li><i><b>出售落后者</b></i><i>和失败者</i>.<i>（如果某些东西在市场融化时不起作用，那么在广泛下跌时很可能也不会起作用。最好尽早消除风险。）</i></li><li><i><b>筹集现金</b></i><i>并重新平衡投资组合以达到目标权重。（定期重新平衡风险可以在一定程度上减轻隐藏的风险。）</i></li></ol><b>注意，里面没有任何东西说，</b><b><i>“卖掉所有东西，去兑现。”</i></b></blockquote></p><p> There will be a time to raise significant levels of cash. A good portfolio management strategy will automatically ensure that<i>“stop-loss”</i>levels get triggered, exposure decreases, and cash levels rise when the selling begins.</p><p><blockquote>将会有一段时间来筹集大量现金。一个好的投资组合管理策略将自动确保<i>“止损”</i>当出售开始时，水平被触发，风险减少，现金水平上升。</blockquote></p><p> While it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent<i>“this time is different.”</i></p><p><blockquote>虽然有必要在融化持续期间利用它，但不要过于自满<i>“这次不一样。”</i></blockquote></p><p> It likely isn’t.</p><p><blockquote>很可能不是。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457469-technically-speaking-is-the-market-melting-up\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457469-technically-speaking-is-the-market-melting-up","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198528044","content_text":"Summary\n\nGiven the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.\nAs is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.\nWhile it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent “this time is different”.\n\nIs the“market melting-up?”Such was the question I received from my colleague atCut The Crap Investing.It is an excellent question given the relentless increase in what investors believe is a“no risk”market.\nOf course, we need a definition of precisely what constitutes a melt-up.\n\n“A melt-up is a sustained and often unexpected improvement in the investment performance of an asset or asset class, driven partly\nby a stampede of investors who don’t want to miss out on its rise,\nrather than by fundamental improvements in the economy.“–\n Investopedia\n\nCurrently, there is sufficient evidence to support the idea of an exuberant market.As noted previously:\n\n“Near peaks of market cycles, investors become swept up by the underlying exuberance. That exuberance breeds the “rationalization” that “this time is different.” So how do you know the market is exuberant currently? Via Sentiment Trader:”\n\n\n‘This type of market activity is an indication that markets have returned their ‘enthusiasm’ stage. Such is characterized by:’\n\n\nHigh optimism\nEasy credit (too easy, with loose terms)\nA rush of initial and secondary offerings\nRisky stocks outperforming\nStretched valuations\n\n\nHowever, while one would expect individuals to exhibit caution in such an environment, the opposite is true. Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.\nA Visualization Of A Market Melting-Up\nIt is often easier to visualize something rather than explain it.Since 1900, only two previous market periods qualify as a melt-up: 1920-1929 and 1995-2000.The chart below shows both periods in terms of price.\n\nHowever, the melt-up is also visually represented by the incredibly sharp rise in valuations. Such is essential because earnings are not rising at a fast enough clip to support higher prices.As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.\n\nWe can compare those two previous periods with the current advance from the March 2020 lows. Again, we see a very similar sharp advance in price combined with a surge in valuations. As expected, investors are currently hoping that future earnings will rise sharply enough to justify current prices. However, the justification for paying high prices is the Federal Reserve’s ongoing balance sheet expansion.\n\nThe following chart looks that the price advance and valuation measures a little differently. It shows the current deviation from the long-term exponential growth trend. Not surprisingly, during a market“melt-up,”there is a rapid deviation from the growth trend matching the acceleration in valuations.\n\nThe problem with market“melt-ups”is not the melt-up itself but what always follows.\nMelting-Up Leads To Melting-Down\nA market melting-up is exciting while it lasts. During melt-ups, investors begin to rationalize why“this time is different.”They start taking on excess leverage to try and capitalize on the rapid advance in prices, and fundamentals take a back seat to price momentum.\nMarket melt-ups are all about“psychology.”Historically, whatever has been the catalyst to spark the disregard of risk is readily witnessed in the corresponding surge in price and valuations.The chart below shows the long-term deviations in relative strength, deviations, and valuations. The previous‘melt-up”periods should be easy to spot when compared with the advance currently.\n\nGiven that current extensions match only a few rare periods in history, a couple of points should be readily apparent.\n\nMelt-ups can longer than logic would predict.\nThe prevailing psychology is always “this time is different.”\nValuations are dismissed in exchange for measures of momentum and forward expectations.\nInvestors take on excess leverage and risk in order to participate in a seemingly “can’t lose” market.\nLastly, and inevitably, “melt-ups” end and always in the worst possible outcomes.\n\nIt is essential to recognize the markets are in a“melt-up,” and the duration of that event is unknowable. Therefore, investors need a strategy to participate in the advance and mitigate the damage from the eventual“melting-down.”\nSurviving The Melt-Up\nAs noted, none of this means the next“bear market”is lurking.Given that a market melting-up is a function of psychology, they can last longer and go further than logic would predict. What is required to “end”a melt-up is an unanticipated exogenous event that changes psychology from bullish to bearish. Such is when the stampede for the exits occurs, and prices decline very quickly.\nAs such, investors need a set of guidelines to participate in the market advance. But, of course, the hard part is keeping those gains when corrections inevitably occur.\nAs portfolio managers for our clients, such is precisely the approach we must take. Accordingly, I have provided a general overview of the process that we employ.\n\nTighten up stop-loss levelsto current support levels for each position.(Provides identifiable exit points when the market reverses.)\nHedge portfoliosagainst major market declines.(Non-correlated assets, short-market positions, index put options)\nTake profitsin positions that have been big winners(Rebalancing overbought or extended positions to capture gains but continue to participate in the advance.)\nSell laggardsand losers.(If something isn’t working in a market melt-up, it most likely won’t work during a broad decline. Better to eliminate the risk early.)\nRaise cashand rebalance portfolios to target weightings.(Rebalancing risk on a regular basis keeps hidden risks somewhat mitigated.)\n\nNotice, nothing in there says,“sell everything and go to cash.”\nThere will be a time to raise significant levels of cash. A good portfolio management strategy will automatically ensure that“stop-loss”levels get triggered, exposure decreases, and cash levels rise when the selling begins.\nWhile it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent“this time is different.”\nIt likely isn’t.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2211,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":861276555,"gmtCreate":1632507088777,"gmtModify":1632714651506,"author":{"id":"3583650394724849","authorId":"3583650394724849","name":"ThECROW","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583650394724849","idStr":"3583650394724849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[弱]&nbsp;","listText":"[弱]&nbsp;","text":"[弱]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/861276555","repostId":"1187521937","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2431,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":863709699,"gmtCreate":1632429736111,"gmtModify":1632728706661,"author":{"id":"3583650394724849","authorId":"3583650394724849","name":"ThECROW","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583650394724849","idStr":"3583650394724849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EQIX\">$Equinix(EQIX)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4093922341007940\">@venseliau</a>[强]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EQIX\">$Equinix(EQIX)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4093922341007940\">@venseliau</a>[强]&nbsp;","text":"$Equinix(EQIX)$@venseliau[强]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/204725148501739d3bbb96fb96c1762a","width":"720","height":"1593"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/863709699","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3233,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":869309893,"gmtCreate":1632239920112,"gmtModify":1632801821693,"author":{"id":"3583650394724849","authorId":"3583650394724849","name":"ThECROW","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583650394724849","idStr":"3583650394724849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[强]&nbsp;","listText":"[强]&nbsp;","text":"[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/869309893","repostId":"1178869256","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3025,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":888631008,"gmtCreate":1631492390704,"gmtModify":1631889101743,"author":{"id":"3583650394724849","authorId":"3583650394724849","name":"ThECROW","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583650394724849","idStr":"3583650394724849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[强]&nbsp;","listText":"[强]&nbsp;","text":"[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/888631008","repostId":"2167305804","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2595,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":881114722,"gmtCreate":1631316850766,"gmtModify":1631883964302,"author":{"id":"3583650394724849","authorId":"3583650394724849","name":"ThECROW","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583650394724849","idStr":"3583650394724849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Apple should have been a bigger man.","listText":"Apple should have been a bigger man.","text":"Apple should have been a bigger man.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/881114722","repostId":"2166711943","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1779,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":881355307,"gmtCreate":1631305717409,"gmtModify":1631889101748,"author":{"id":"3583650394724849","authorId":"3583650394724849","name":"ThECROW","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583650394724849","idStr":"3583650394724849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[强]&nbsp;","listText":"[强]&nbsp;","text":"[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/881355307","repostId":"1148605188","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148605188","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631265518,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148605188?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-10 17:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bitcoin Crash September 2021: What You Should Know<blockquote>2021年9月比特币坠机事件：您应该知道什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148605188","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nBitcoin will be Bitcoin and bucket shops will be bucket shops.\nStocks, options, commodities","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Bitcoin will be Bitcoin and bucket shops will be bucket shops.</li>  <li>Stocks, options, commodities and forex are no different from crypto in that they are filled with crashes, skulduggery and scandal.</li>  <li>If you're in crypto you need two strategies for dealing with crashes.</li> </ul> Yesterday (7thSeptember 2021) Bitcoin crashed, and as I write it is spiking down again. As a bear this is no surprise to me, but it is a major shock to many bulls who are expecting Bitcoin to go straight to $100,000 without a halt.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>比特币将成为比特币，桶店将成为桶店。</li><li>股票、期权、大宗商品和外汇与加密货币没有什么不同，因为它们充满了崩溃、欺诈和丑闻。</li><li>如果你在crypto，你需要两种策略来处理崩溃。</li></ul>昨天（2021年9月7日）比特币崩溃了，当我写这篇文章的时候，它又在飙升。作为空头，这对我来说并不奇怪，但对许多预计比特币将不间断地直奔10万美元的多头来说却是一个重大冲击。</blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin is plagued/blessed with volatility and, make no mistake, if it did not have huge volatility, it would not be the giant brand it has become and crypto would not be the financial earthquake that is changing financial services forever.</p><p><blockquote>比特币受到波动性的困扰/祝福，毫无疑问，如果它没有巨大的波动性，它就不会成为现在的巨型品牌，加密也不会成为永远改变金融服务的金融地震。</blockquote></p><p> Markets are casinos; gamblers love to gamble and casinos love gamblers and ensure that they accommodate the players in as profitable a way as they can. Stocks, options, commodities, forex, they are no different from crypto in that they are filled with crashes, skulduggery and scandal, and the gaming tables are the same... ‘come play with leverage, come play with stop losses, this could be your lucky day.’</p><p><blockquote>市场是赌场；赌徒喜欢赌博，赌场也喜欢赌徒，并确保他们尽可能以有利可图的方式容纳玩家。股票、期权、商品、外汇，它们与加密货币没有什么不同，因为它们充满了崩溃、欺诈和丑闻，赌桌也是一样的...“来玩杠杆，来玩止损，这可能是你的幸运日。”</blockquote></p><p> Edwin Lefevre wrote the classic trading book in 1923 called ‘Reminiscences of a Stock Operator’ about famous trader/speculator/gambler Jesse Livermore. The ‘bucket shop’ scams of the time and the general trading environment around 1890-1930 remain basically unchanged today (…but, but, but think of all the regulation we have now…). Livermore was an incredibly talented trader that committed suicide when he lost it all, as traders are fated - by their counterparties and math - to do.</p><p><blockquote>埃德温·勒费夫尔在1923年写了一本关于著名交易员/投机者/赌徒杰西·利弗莫尔的经典交易书，名为《股票经营者的回忆》。当时的“桶店”骗局和1890-1930年左右的总体交易环境今天基本保持不变（…但是，但是，但是想想我们现在所有的监管…）。利弗莫尔是一位才华横溢的交易者，当他失去一切时，他自杀了，这是交易者注定要做的——由他们的交易对手和数学来做的。</blockquote></p><p> Leverage and stop losses are just one example of how market actors like ‘bucket shops’ drive your account balances into their account balances. All the same finance scams of hidden charges, Ponzi schemes, ‘pump and dumps’ and so on are still everywhere to be seen in crypto, stocks etc. Where there are resources there are predators.</p><p><blockquote>杠杆和止损只是“桶店”等市场参与者如何将您的账户余额转移到他们的账户余额中的一个例子。隐藏费用、庞氏骗局、“拉高转储”等所有相同的金融诈骗在加密货币、股票等领域仍然随处可见。哪里有资源，哪里就有捕食者。</blockquote></p><p> So, a wild crash in crypto is to be expected and is perhaps even guaranteed. Take this phrase and write it like this:</p><p><blockquote>因此，加密货币的疯狂崩溃是可以预料的，甚至可能是必然的。把这个短语写成这样：</blockquote></p><p> So, a wild crash in ______ is to be expected and is perhaps even guaranteed.</p><p><blockquote>因此，______的疯狂崩溃是可以预料的，甚至可能是必然的。</blockquote></p><p> Fill the blank as you see fit: stocks, bonds, property, the dollar, gold, junk bonds…. It will fit in just fine.</p><p><blockquote>填写你认为合适的空白：股票、债券、房地产、美元、黄金、垃圾债券…它会很合适。</blockquote></p><p> Crashing is what markets do.</p><p><blockquote>崩盘是市场的表现。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, if you want to play in crypto, or for that matter in any financial market, you need two strategies for dealing with crashes.</p><p><blockquote>因此，如果你想玩加密货币，或者在任何金融市场，你需要两种应对崩溃的策略。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Strategy 1) What not to do</b></p><p><blockquote><b>策略1）不要做什么</b></blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>Do not carry much leverage if any. If an instrument is volatile do not carry leverage at all.</li>  <li>Do not hold stop losses on another party’s platforms.</li>  <li>Do not hold positions for no good reason.</li>  <li>Be prepared to hold your positions after a crash if you get caught and stuck in one</li>  <li>If you are<b>certain</b>a crash is underway, do not hold and hope,<i>sell</i>.</li> </ol> <b>Strategy 2) What to do</b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>如果有的话，不要携带太多杠杆。如果一种工具不稳定，根本不要使用杠杆。</li><li>不要在另一方的平台上持有止损。</li><li>不要无缘无故持仓。</li><li>如果您陷入其中，请做好在崩盘后持有头寸的准备</li><li>如果你是<b>某些</b>崩盘正在进行，不要抱着希望，<i>出售</i>.</li></ol><b>策略2）做什么</b></blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>Never stop searching out the next crash. It is inevitable. One BTC at $60,000 is two BTC at $30,000.</li>  <li>Buy the crash but only well after it’s happened and the dust is settling. This is the ultimate test of an investor.</li>  <li>If you must trade during a crash, make sure you can depend on your providers not shuttering you in or out when it matters most (as true in stocks as in crypto). If you cannot depend on your service provider do not play. There is no customer service during a crash.</li> </ol> A crash is a 25% drop in a dull asset but 50%-75% in anything spicy like crypto and 90% outside the blue chip instruments of a market.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>永远不要停止寻找下一次崩溃。这是不可避免的。一个6万美元的BTC就是两个3万美元的BTC。</li><li>购买崩溃，但只有在它发生并且尘埃落定之后。这是对一个投资者的终极考验。</li><li>如果您必须在崩盘期间进行交易，请确保您可以依靠您的提供商在最重要的时候不会将您拒之门外（股票和加密货币都是如此）。如果你不能依赖你的服务提供商，就不要玩。崩溃期间没有客户服务。</li></ol>崩盘是指一种沉闷的资产下跌25%，但任何辛辣的资产（如加密货币）下跌50%-75%，市场蓝筹股工具以外的资产下跌90%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What next?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>接下来呢？</b></blockquote></p><p> Here is the chart:</p><p><blockquote>图表如下：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e84d0c18312986bee801a102afc9dd6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">I’m still a bear<i>but</i>I think the recent rally is heavily driven by the social clampdown in China with Bitcoin and other cryptos a way of expatriating capital away from a developing authoritarian nightmare; a nightmare where even kids who want to play computer games can’t escape the boot of ideology. The impact of this new development may prove to be extremely potent and not in a good way for many, but for crypto it could be very strong.</p><p><blockquote>我还是只熊<i>但</i>我认为最近的反弹在很大程度上是由中国的社会打压推动的，比特币和其他加密货币是一种将资本从发展中的独裁噩梦中转移出去的方式；这是一场噩梦，即使是想玩电脑游戏的孩子也无法逃脱意识形态的束缚。这一新发展的影响可能会被证明是极其强大的，对许多人来说不是一件好事，但对crypto来说，它可能非常强大。</blockquote></p><p> However, without that tailwind or other geopolitical conniptions I would expect Bitcoin to go under $20,000 but markets don’t listen to me. Like with every call, you must measure your speculation against what transpired. I produced a similar chart a few months ago showing the bull and the bear trend like the above. I hovered to the bear trend as the move I expected, and up went Bitcoin exactly on the bull trend as if by magic. Speculation is just that, and you have to believe what you see not what you think.</p><p><blockquote>然而，如果没有这种顺风或其他地缘政治概念，我预计比特币将跌破20,000美元，但市场不听我的。就像每一次看涨期权一样，你必须根据所发生的事情来衡量你的猜测。几个月前，我制作了一张类似的图表，显示了如上所述的牛市和熊市趋势。我按照我预期的走势徘徊在熊市趋势，比特币就像变魔术一样在牛市趋势上上涨。猜测就是这样，你必须相信你所看到的，而不是你所想的。</blockquote></p><p> The above trends will therefore develop, and I remain a bear.</p><p><blockquote>上述趋势将因此发展，我仍然看跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What to do?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>怎么办？</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The golden rule is if you think you know, you don’t, so stop. If you know you know then proceed.</p><p><blockquote>黄金法则是，如果你认为你知道，你不知道，所以停下来。如果你知道你知道，那就继续。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically:</p><p><blockquote>具体来说：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>If you are a Hodl’er continue to dollar cost average in. If it really does melt down then perhaps drop some extra fiat in.</li>  <li>If you don’t know what to do and need to ask then sell and save your fiat for when you are certain of your positions</li>  <li>If you want to buy the dip be sure you want to hold because you might need to Hodl for a long time. If you are looking to flip you should wait because this move could go way lower.</li>  <li>If you want to trade, look to go against extreme moves but only when they make your eyes bug out. Make sure the platform you use won’t choke and can execute under extreme volume.</li>  <li>If you are looking for a re-entry - like me - this isn’t it (yet).</li>  <li>If you are a tyro trader, study every tick of this. Crashes are where the real traders and investors make their killings because this is where the novices lose their shirts.</li> </ol> <b>What am I doing?</b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>如果你是一个Hodl’er继续美元成本平均。如果它真的融化了，那么也许可以添加一些额外的菲亚特。</li><li>如果您不知道该做什么并且需要询问，那么出售并保存您的菲亚特以备您确定自己的头寸时使用</li><li>如果您想逢低买入，请确保您想持有，因为您可能需要长期持有。如果你想翻转，你应该等待，因为这一步可能会走得更低。</li><li>如果你想交易，就要反对极端的交易，但前提是它们会让你眼花缭乱。确保您使用的平台不会阻塞，并且可以在极端音量下执行。</li><li>如果你像我一样正在寻找重返校园的机会，这还不是它。</li><li>如果你是一个新手交易者，研究一下这一点。崩盘是真正的交易者和投资者大赚一笔的地方，因为这是新手输光的地方。</li></ol><b>我在做什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> ‘Hodling’ what little ‘unstable coins’ I have. I am watching out for what will look great value when this move capitulates while focusing on midcap tokens for now. If this is the big crash of this cycle, after it’s all over and a week or two later, I’ll be picking a portfolio from the rubble.</p><p><blockquote>“霍德林”我有多少“不稳定的硬币”。我正在关注当这一举措失败时什么看起来很有价值，同时目前专注于中型股代币。如果这是这个周期的大崩盘，在一切结束后，一两周后，我会从废墟中挑选一个投资组合。</blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin dropped another $1000 while I wrote this article and jumped $1000 while I edited it. The big take away is Bitcoin will be Bitcoin and crypto will always crash and moon and that is one of the reasons it will always be a huge brand fascinating millions.</p><p><blockquote>在我写这篇文章的时候，比特币又掉了1000美元，在我编辑这篇文章的时候又跳了1000美元。最大的收获是比特币将成为比特币，加密货币将永远崩溃和登月，这也是它将永远是一个吸引数百万人的巨大品牌的原因之一。</blockquote></p><p> Long term, Bitcoin will go a lot higher but it will not be a smooth or short road.</p><p><blockquote>从长远来看，比特币将走得更高，但这不会是一条平坦或短暂的道路。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bitcoin Crash September 2021: What You Should Know<blockquote>2021年9月比特币坠机事件：您应该知道什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBitcoin Crash September 2021: What You Should Know<blockquote>2021年9月比特币坠机事件：您应该知道什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-10 17:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Bitcoin will be Bitcoin and bucket shops will be bucket shops.</li>  <li>Stocks, options, commodities and forex are no different from crypto in that they are filled with crashes, skulduggery and scandal.</li>  <li>If you're in crypto you need two strategies for dealing with crashes.</li> </ul> Yesterday (7thSeptember 2021) Bitcoin crashed, and as I write it is spiking down again. As a bear this is no surprise to me, but it is a major shock to many bulls who are expecting Bitcoin to go straight to $100,000 without a halt.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>比特币将成为比特币，桶店将成为桶店。</li><li>股票、期权、大宗商品和外汇与加密货币没有什么不同，因为它们充满了崩溃、欺诈和丑闻。</li><li>如果你在crypto，你需要两种策略来处理崩溃。</li></ul>昨天（2021年9月7日）比特币崩溃了，当我写这篇文章的时候，它又在飙升。作为空头，这对我来说并不奇怪，但对许多预计比特币将不间断地直奔10万美元的多头来说却是一个重大冲击。</blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin is plagued/blessed with volatility and, make no mistake, if it did not have huge volatility, it would not be the giant brand it has become and crypto would not be the financial earthquake that is changing financial services forever.</p><p><blockquote>比特币受到波动性的困扰/祝福，毫无疑问，如果它没有巨大的波动性，它就不会成为现在的巨型品牌，加密也不会成为永远改变金融服务的金融地震。</blockquote></p><p> Markets are casinos; gamblers love to gamble and casinos love gamblers and ensure that they accommodate the players in as profitable a way as they can. Stocks, options, commodities, forex, they are no different from crypto in that they are filled with crashes, skulduggery and scandal, and the gaming tables are the same... ‘come play with leverage, come play with stop losses, this could be your lucky day.’</p><p><blockquote>市场是赌场；赌徒喜欢赌博，赌场也喜欢赌徒，并确保他们尽可能以有利可图的方式容纳玩家。股票、期权、商品、外汇，它们与加密货币没有什么不同，因为它们充满了崩溃、欺诈和丑闻，赌桌也是一样的...“来玩杠杆，来玩止损，这可能是你的幸运日。”</blockquote></p><p> Edwin Lefevre wrote the classic trading book in 1923 called ‘Reminiscences of a Stock Operator’ about famous trader/speculator/gambler Jesse Livermore. The ‘bucket shop’ scams of the time and the general trading environment around 1890-1930 remain basically unchanged today (…but, but, but think of all the regulation we have now…). Livermore was an incredibly talented trader that committed suicide when he lost it all, as traders are fated - by their counterparties and math - to do.</p><p><blockquote>埃德温·勒费夫尔在1923年写了一本关于著名交易员/投机者/赌徒杰西·利弗莫尔的经典交易书，名为《股票经营者的回忆》。当时的“桶店”骗局和1890-1930年左右的总体交易环境今天基本保持不变（…但是，但是，但是想想我们现在所有的监管…）。利弗莫尔是一位才华横溢的交易者，当他失去一切时，他自杀了，这是交易者注定要做的——由他们的交易对手和数学来做的。</blockquote></p><p> Leverage and stop losses are just one example of how market actors like ‘bucket shops’ drive your account balances into their account balances. All the same finance scams of hidden charges, Ponzi schemes, ‘pump and dumps’ and so on are still everywhere to be seen in crypto, stocks etc. Where there are resources there are predators.</p><p><blockquote>杠杆和止损只是“桶店”等市场参与者如何将您的账户余额转移到他们的账户余额中的一个例子。隐藏费用、庞氏骗局、“拉高转储”等所有相同的金融诈骗在加密货币、股票等领域仍然随处可见。哪里有资源，哪里就有捕食者。</blockquote></p><p> So, a wild crash in crypto is to be expected and is perhaps even guaranteed. Take this phrase and write it like this:</p><p><blockquote>因此，加密货币的疯狂崩溃是可以预料的，甚至可能是必然的。把这个短语写成这样：</blockquote></p><p> So, a wild crash in ______ is to be expected and is perhaps even guaranteed.</p><p><blockquote>因此，______的疯狂崩溃是可以预料的，甚至可能是必然的。</blockquote></p><p> Fill the blank as you see fit: stocks, bonds, property, the dollar, gold, junk bonds…. It will fit in just fine.</p><p><blockquote>填写你认为合适的空白：股票、债券、房地产、美元、黄金、垃圾债券…它会很合适。</blockquote></p><p> Crashing is what markets do.</p><p><blockquote>崩盘是市场的表现。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, if you want to play in crypto, or for that matter in any financial market, you need two strategies for dealing with crashes.</p><p><blockquote>因此，如果你想玩加密货币，或者在任何金融市场，你需要两种应对崩溃的策略。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Strategy 1) What not to do</b></p><p><blockquote><b>策略1）不要做什么</b></blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>Do not carry much leverage if any. If an instrument is volatile do not carry leverage at all.</li>  <li>Do not hold stop losses on another party’s platforms.</li>  <li>Do not hold positions for no good reason.</li>  <li>Be prepared to hold your positions after a crash if you get caught and stuck in one</li>  <li>If you are<b>certain</b>a crash is underway, do not hold and hope,<i>sell</i>.</li> </ol> <b>Strategy 2) What to do</b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>如果有的话，不要携带太多杠杆。如果一种工具不稳定，根本不要使用杠杆。</li><li>不要在另一方的平台上持有止损。</li><li>不要无缘无故持仓。</li><li>如果您陷入其中，请做好在崩盘后持有头寸的准备</li><li>如果你是<b>某些</b>崩盘正在进行，不要抱着希望，<i>出售</i>.</li></ol><b>策略2）做什么</b></blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>Never stop searching out the next crash. It is inevitable. One BTC at $60,000 is two BTC at $30,000.</li>  <li>Buy the crash but only well after it’s happened and the dust is settling. This is the ultimate test of an investor.</li>  <li>If you must trade during a crash, make sure you can depend on your providers not shuttering you in or out when it matters most (as true in stocks as in crypto). If you cannot depend on your service provider do not play. There is no customer service during a crash.</li> </ol> A crash is a 25% drop in a dull asset but 50%-75% in anything spicy like crypto and 90% outside the blue chip instruments of a market.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>永远不要停止寻找下一次崩溃。这是不可避免的。一个6万美元的BTC就是两个3万美元的BTC。</li><li>购买崩溃，但只有在它发生并且尘埃落定之后。这是对一个投资者的终极考验。</li><li>如果您必须在崩盘期间进行交易，请确保您可以依靠您的提供商在最重要的时候不会将您拒之门外（股票和加密货币都是如此）。如果你不能依赖你的服务提供商，就不要玩。崩溃期间没有客户服务。</li></ol>崩盘是指一种沉闷的资产下跌25%，但任何辛辣的资产（如加密货币）下跌50%-75%，市场蓝筹股工具以外的资产下跌90%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What next?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>接下来呢？</b></blockquote></p><p> Here is the chart:</p><p><blockquote>图表如下：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e84d0c18312986bee801a102afc9dd6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">I’m still a bear<i>but</i>I think the recent rally is heavily driven by the social clampdown in China with Bitcoin and other cryptos a way of expatriating capital away from a developing authoritarian nightmare; a nightmare where even kids who want to play computer games can’t escape the boot of ideology. The impact of this new development may prove to be extremely potent and not in a good way for many, but for crypto it could be very strong.</p><p><blockquote>我还是只熊<i>但</i>我认为最近的反弹在很大程度上是由中国的社会打压推动的，比特币和其他加密货币是一种将资本从发展中的独裁噩梦中转移出去的方式；这是一场噩梦，即使是想玩电脑游戏的孩子也无法逃脱意识形态的束缚。这一新发展的影响可能会被证明是极其强大的，对许多人来说不是一件好事，但对crypto来说，它可能非常强大。</blockquote></p><p> However, without that tailwind or other geopolitical conniptions I would expect Bitcoin to go under $20,000 but markets don’t listen to me. Like with every call, you must measure your speculation against what transpired. I produced a similar chart a few months ago showing the bull and the bear trend like the above. I hovered to the bear trend as the move I expected, and up went Bitcoin exactly on the bull trend as if by magic. Speculation is just that, and you have to believe what you see not what you think.</p><p><blockquote>然而，如果没有这种顺风或其他地缘政治概念，我预计比特币将跌破20,000美元，但市场不听我的。就像每一次看涨期权一样，你必须根据所发生的事情来衡量你的猜测。几个月前，我制作了一张类似的图表，显示了如上所述的牛市和熊市趋势。我按照我预期的走势徘徊在熊市趋势，比特币就像变魔术一样在牛市趋势上上涨。猜测就是这样，你必须相信你所看到的，而不是你所想的。</blockquote></p><p> The above trends will therefore develop, and I remain a bear.</p><p><blockquote>上述趋势将因此发展，我仍然看跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What to do?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>怎么办？</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The golden rule is if you think you know, you don’t, so stop. If you know you know then proceed.</p><p><blockquote>黄金法则是，如果你认为你知道，你不知道，所以停下来。如果你知道你知道，那就继续。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically:</p><p><blockquote>具体来说：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>If you are a Hodl’er continue to dollar cost average in. If it really does melt down then perhaps drop some extra fiat in.</li>  <li>If you don’t know what to do and need to ask then sell and save your fiat for when you are certain of your positions</li>  <li>If you want to buy the dip be sure you want to hold because you might need to Hodl for a long time. If you are looking to flip you should wait because this move could go way lower.</li>  <li>If you want to trade, look to go against extreme moves but only when they make your eyes bug out. Make sure the platform you use won’t choke and can execute under extreme volume.</li>  <li>If you are looking for a re-entry - like me - this isn’t it (yet).</li>  <li>If you are a tyro trader, study every tick of this. Crashes are where the real traders and investors make their killings because this is where the novices lose their shirts.</li> </ol> <b>What am I doing?</b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>如果你是一个Hodl’er继续美元成本平均。如果它真的融化了，那么也许可以添加一些额外的菲亚特。</li><li>如果您不知道该做什么并且需要询问，那么出售并保存您的菲亚特以备您确定自己的头寸时使用</li><li>如果您想逢低买入，请确保您想持有，因为您可能需要长期持有。如果你想翻转，你应该等待，因为这一步可能会走得更低。</li><li>如果你想交易，就要反对极端的交易，但前提是它们会让你眼花缭乱。确保您使用的平台不会阻塞，并且可以在极端音量下执行。</li><li>如果你像我一样正在寻找重返校园的机会，这还不是它。</li><li>如果你是一个新手交易者，研究一下这一点。崩盘是真正的交易者和投资者大赚一笔的地方，因为这是新手输光的地方。</li></ol><b>我在做什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> ‘Hodling’ what little ‘unstable coins’ I have. I am watching out for what will look great value when this move capitulates while focusing on midcap tokens for now. If this is the big crash of this cycle, after it’s all over and a week or two later, I’ll be picking a portfolio from the rubble.</p><p><blockquote>“霍德林”我有多少“不稳定的硬币”。我正在关注当这一举措失败时什么看起来很有价值，同时目前专注于中型股代币。如果这是这个周期的大崩盘，在一切结束后，一两周后，我会从废墟中挑选一个投资组合。</blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin dropped another $1000 while I wrote this article and jumped $1000 while I edited it. The big take away is Bitcoin will be Bitcoin and crypto will always crash and moon and that is one of the reasons it will always be a huge brand fascinating millions.</p><p><blockquote>在我写这篇文章的时候，比特币又掉了1000美元，在我编辑这篇文章的时候又跳了1000美元。最大的收获是比特币将成为比特币，加密货币将永远崩溃和登月，这也是它将永远是一个吸引数百万人的巨大品牌的原因之一。</blockquote></p><p> Long term, Bitcoin will go a lot higher but it will not be a smooth or short road.</p><p><blockquote>从长远来看，比特币将走得更高，但这不会是一条平坦或短暂的道路。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4454069-bitcoin-crash-september-2021-what-you-should-know\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc.","GBTC":"比特币ETF-Grayscale","01611":"新火科技控股","01499":"欧科云链"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4454069-bitcoin-crash-september-2021-what-you-should-know","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148605188","content_text":"Summary\n\nBitcoin will be Bitcoin and bucket shops will be bucket shops.\nStocks, options, commodities and forex are no different from crypto in that they are filled with crashes, skulduggery and scandal.\nIf you're in crypto you need two strategies for dealing with crashes.\n\nYesterday (7thSeptember 2021) Bitcoin crashed, and as I write it is spiking down again. As a bear this is no surprise to me, but it is a major shock to many bulls who are expecting Bitcoin to go straight to $100,000 without a halt.\nBitcoin is plagued/blessed with volatility and, make no mistake, if it did not have huge volatility, it would not be the giant brand it has become and crypto would not be the financial earthquake that is changing financial services forever.\nMarkets are casinos; gamblers love to gamble and casinos love gamblers and ensure that they accommodate the players in as profitable a way as they can. Stocks, options, commodities, forex, they are no different from crypto in that they are filled with crashes, skulduggery and scandal, and the gaming tables are the same... ‘come play with leverage, come play with stop losses, this could be your lucky day.’\nEdwin Lefevre wrote the classic trading book in 1923 called ‘Reminiscences of a Stock Operator’ about famous trader/speculator/gambler Jesse Livermore. The ‘bucket shop’ scams of the time and the general trading environment around 1890-1930 remain basically unchanged today (…but, but, but think of all the regulation we have now…). Livermore was an incredibly talented trader that committed suicide when he lost it all, as traders are fated - by their counterparties and math - to do.\nLeverage and stop losses are just one example of how market actors like ‘bucket shops’ drive your account balances into their account balances. All the same finance scams of hidden charges, Ponzi schemes, ‘pump and dumps’ and so on are still everywhere to be seen in crypto, stocks etc. Where there are resources there are predators.\nSo, a wild crash in crypto is to be expected and is perhaps even guaranteed. Take this phrase and write it like this:\nSo, a wild crash in ______ is to be expected and is perhaps even guaranteed.\nFill the blank as you see fit: stocks, bonds, property, the dollar, gold, junk bonds…. It will fit in just fine.\nCrashing is what markets do.\nTherefore, if you want to play in crypto, or for that matter in any financial market, you need two strategies for dealing with crashes.\nStrategy 1) What not to do\n\nDo not carry much leverage if any. If an instrument is volatile do not carry leverage at all.\nDo not hold stop losses on another party’s platforms.\nDo not hold positions for no good reason.\nBe prepared to hold your positions after a crash if you get caught and stuck in one\nIf you arecertaina crash is underway, do not hold and hope,sell.\n\nStrategy 2) What to do\n\nNever stop searching out the next crash. It is inevitable. One BTC at $60,000 is two BTC at $30,000.\nBuy the crash but only well after it’s happened and the dust is settling. This is the ultimate test of an investor.\nIf you must trade during a crash, make sure you can depend on your providers not shuttering you in or out when it matters most (as true in stocks as in crypto). If you cannot depend on your service provider do not play. There is no customer service during a crash.\n\nA crash is a 25% drop in a dull asset but 50%-75% in anything spicy like crypto and 90% outside the blue chip instruments of a market.\nWhat next?\nHere is the chart:\nI’m still a bearbutI think the recent rally is heavily driven by the social clampdown in China with Bitcoin and other cryptos a way of expatriating capital away from a developing authoritarian nightmare; a nightmare where even kids who want to play computer games can’t escape the boot of ideology. The impact of this new development may prove to be extremely potent and not in a good way for many, but for crypto it could be very strong.\nHowever, without that tailwind or other geopolitical conniptions I would expect Bitcoin to go under $20,000 but markets don’t listen to me. Like with every call, you must measure your speculation against what transpired. I produced a similar chart a few months ago showing the bull and the bear trend like the above. I hovered to the bear trend as the move I expected, and up went Bitcoin exactly on the bull trend as if by magic. Speculation is just that, and you have to believe what you see not what you think.\nThe above trends will therefore develop, and I remain a bear.\nWhat to do?\nThe golden rule is if you think you know, you don’t, so stop. If you know you know then proceed.\nSpecifically:\n\nIf you are a Hodl’er continue to dollar cost average in. If it really does melt down then perhaps drop some extra fiat in.\nIf you don’t know what to do and need to ask then sell and save your fiat for when you are certain of your positions\nIf you want to buy the dip be sure you want to hold because you might need to Hodl for a long time. If you are looking to flip you should wait because this move could go way lower.\nIf you want to trade, look to go against extreme moves but only when they make your eyes bug out. Make sure the platform you use won’t choke and can execute under extreme volume.\nIf you are looking for a re-entry - like me - this isn’t it (yet).\nIf you are a tyro trader, study every tick of this. Crashes are where the real traders and investors make their killings because this is where the novices lose their shirts.\n\nWhat am I doing?\n‘Hodling’ what little ‘unstable coins’ I have. I am watching out for what will look great value when this move capitulates while focusing on midcap tokens for now. If this is the big crash of this cycle, after it’s all over and a week or two later, I’ll be picking a portfolio from the rubble.\nBitcoin dropped another $1000 while I wrote this article and jumped $1000 while I edited it. The big take away is Bitcoin will be Bitcoin and crypto will always crash and moon and that is one of the reasons it will always be a huge brand fascinating millions.\nLong term, Bitcoin will go a lot higher but it will not be a smooth or short road.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"01611":0.9,"GBTC":0.9,"01499":0.9,"COIN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1778,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":883465025,"gmtCreate":1631263955667,"gmtModify":1631889101756,"author":{"id":"3583650394724849","authorId":"3583650394724849","name":"ThECROW","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583650394724849","idStr":"3583650394724849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[握手]&nbsp;[鼓掌]&nbsp;","listText":"[握手]&nbsp;[鼓掌]&nbsp;","text":"[握手] [鼓掌]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/883465025","repostId":"1108076835","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1108076835","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1631260909,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1108076835?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-10 16:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"UP Fintech Reports More Than 60% of Newly Funded Accounts Acquired From International Markets<blockquote>老虎证券报告称，超过60%的新资金账户是从国际市场获得的</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108076835","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"$Leading$ online brokerage firm, UP Fintech Holding Limited  , today reported revenues of US$60.2 million for the second quarter ended June 30, 2021 compared to revenue of US$30.3 million in the second quarter of 2020. Notably, more than 60% of the Company’s newly funded accounts were derived from international markets in the quarter. Growth was driven by enhanced platform capabilities and rising demand for convenient access to global brokerage services.UP Fintech Holding Limited Reports Unaudit","content":"<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LBIX\">Leading</a> online brokerage firm, UP Fintech Holding Limited (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a>: TIGR) (“UP Fintech” or the “Company”), today reported revenues of US$60.2 million for the second quarter ended June 30, 2021 compared to revenue of US$30.3 million in the second quarter of 2020. Notably, more than 60% of the Company’s newly funded accounts were derived from international markets in the quarter. Growth was driven by enhanced platform capabilities and rising demand for convenient access to global brokerage services.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LBIX\">领先的</a>网上经纪行、老虎证券控股有限公司(<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">纳斯达克</a>：TIGR）（“老虎证券”或“公司”）今天公布截至2021年6月30日的第二季度收入为6020万美元，而2020年第二季度的收入为3030万美元。值得注意的是，该公司本季度超过60%的新增资金账户来自国际市场。增长是由增强的平台功能和对便捷获取全球经纪服务的需求不断增长推动的。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://ir.itiger.com/news-releases/news-release-details/fintech-holding-limited-reports-unaudited-second-quarter-2021\" target=\"_blank\"><b>UP Fintech Holding Limited Reports Unaudited Second Quarter 2021 Financial Results</b></a></p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://ir.itiger.com/news-releases/news-release-details/fintech-holding-limited-reports-unaudited-second-quarter-2021\" target=\"_blank\"><b>老虎证券控股有限公司报告未经审计的2021年第二季度财务业绩</b></a></blockquote></p><p> “We maintained our solid business momentum with a high client retention rate and increased operational synergies, ”commented Mr. Wu Tianhua, founder and CEO of UP Fintech. “I am confident in the positive outlook for our Company and our industry. Our singular focus is to employ technology to make investing more efficient and we are committed to increasing the breadth and diversity of our product offerings, as well as leveraging our leading position in underwriting and ESOP (Employee Share Ownership Plans) to attract new clients.”</p><p><blockquote>老虎证券创始人兼首席执行官巫天华先生评论道：“我们保持了稳健的业务势头，客户保留率高，运营协同效应增强。”“我对我们公司和行业的积极前景充满信心。我们的唯一重点是利用技术提高投资效率，我们致力于增加产品的广度和多样性，并利用我们在承保和ESOP（员工持股计划）方面的领先地位来吸引新客户。”</blockquote></p><p> During the second quarter, the total number of funded accounts increased to 529,100. The Company added more funded accounts in the first six months of 2021 than it did in its entire cumulative operating history. The total account balance increased 188.9% year-over-year to US$23.9 billion as the Company continued to attract new clients from multiple international markets. In Singapore, UP Fintech’s local subsidiary, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">Tiger Brokers</a> (Singapore) Pte. Ltd., launched new products and in-APP functions such as an industry heatmap, Mini USD/CNH futures, and OSE futures, supplementing the wide range of analytical tools and securities trading functions available on the Company’s platform.</p><p><blockquote>第二季度，资金账户总数增至52.91万个。该公司在2021年前六个月增加的资金账户数量超过了其整个累计运营历史。随着公司继续吸引来自多个国际市场的新客户，账户余额总额同比增长188.9%至239亿美元。在新加坡，老虎证券当地的子公司，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">老虎证券</a>（新加坡）私人有限公司。有限公司推出了新产品和应用内功能，如行业热图、迷你美元/离岸人民币期货和OSE期货，补充了公司平台上广泛的分析工具和证券交易功能。</blockquote></p><p> The Company also recently announced that it has received approval-in-principle to be admitted as a Clearing Member of The Central Depository (Pte) Limited (CDP), and a trading member of Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Limited (SGX) and Singapore Exchange Derivatives Trading Limited. These partnerships aim to improve the user experience and further strengthen the Company’s presence in the Singaporean market.</p><p><blockquote>该公司最近还宣布，已获得原则批准成为中央存管（私人）有限公司（CDP）的结算会员，以及新加坡证券交易所交易有限公司（SGX）和新加坡交易所衍生品交易有限公司的交易会员。这些合作伙伴关系旨在改善用户体验，并进一步加强公司在新加坡市场的影响力。</blockquote></p><p> The Company’s ESOP business continued to exhibit healthy growth with 51 new clients, up from 41 new clients in the previous quarter；ESOP adoption is accelerating and in the first six months of 2021 the Company added more new clients than it did in all of 2020. The Company is a leader in providing extensive expertise and guidance for start-ups at every stage of their ESOP from initial establishment through to execution and reporting. In addition, the Company is now offering its ESOP service to A-Share companies, further expanding its prospective client base.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的员工持股计划业务继续保持健康增长，新增客户51家，高于上一季度的41家；员工持股计划的采用正在加速，2021年前六个月，该公司增加的新客户比2020年全年都多。该公司是一家领先的公司，在员工持股计划的每个阶段为初创企业提供广泛的专业知识和指导，从最初建立到执行和报告。此外，本公司现正向A股公司提供员工持股计划服务，进一步扩大其潜在客户群。</blockquote></p><p> The Company served as an underwriter or member of the selling group in 17 IPOs, and in total provided subscriptions to 29 IPOs, including several high profile Hong Kong IPOs such as those of Angelalign (HK:6699) and Nayuki (HK:2150). In addition, The Company completed its own follow-on offering of 6.5 million <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFG\">American</a> Depository Shares in the second quarter and even&nbsp;offered retail investors the opportunity to subscribe through its flagship mobile trading APP, Tiger Trade.</p><p><blockquote>公司在17宗IPO中担任承销商或销售团队成员，共为29宗IPO提供认购，其中包括时代天使(HK：6699)和奈雪(HK：2150)等多宗备受瞩目的香港IPO。此外，公司完成了自己的后续发行650万<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFG\">美国的</a>第二季度存托股票，甚至为散户投资者提供了通过其旗舰移动交易应用程序Tiger Trade认购的机会。</blockquote></p><p> “While the market will have its ups and downs and competition will remain intense, our innovative platform and technology have been built to create long term value for our clients,” Wu stated. “User experience has always been our top priority and we see significant room for growth as we continue to broaden our global footprint in the near-term.”</p><p><blockquote>吴表示：“虽然市场会有起有落，竞争仍将激烈，但我们的创新平台和技术旨在为客户创造长期价值。”“用户体验一直是我们的首要任务，随着我们在短期内继续扩大全球足迹，我们看到了巨大的增长空间。”</blockquote></p><p> Safe Harbor Statement</p><p><blockquote>安全港声明</blockquote></p><p></p><p> This announcement contains forward-looking statements. These statements are made under the “safe harbor” provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements can be identified by terminology such as “will,” “expects,” “anticipates,” “future,” “intends,” “plans,” “believes,” “estimates” and similar statements. Among other statements, the business outlook and quotations from management in this announcement, as well as the Company’s strategic and operational plans, contain forward-looking statements. The Company may also make written or oral forward-looking statements in its periodic reports to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) on Forms 20-F and 6-K, in its annual report to shareholders, in press releases and other written materials and in oral statements made by its officers, directors or employees to third parties. Statements that are not historical facts, including statements about the Company’s beliefs and expectations, are forward-looking statements. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FORD\">Forward</a>-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties. A number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statement, including but not limited to the following: the Company’s growth strategies; trends and competition in global financial markets; the effects of the global COVID-19 pandemic; and governmental policies relating to the Company’s industry and general economic conditions in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> and other countries. Further information regarding these and other risks is included in the Company’s filings with the SEC. All information provided in this press release and in the attachments is as of the date of this press release, and the Company undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement, except as required under applicable law.</p><p><blockquote>本公告包含前瞻性陈述。这些声明是根据1995年美国私人证券诉讼改革法案的“安全港”条款做出的。这些前瞻性陈述可以通过“将”、“期望”、“预期”、“未来”、“打算”、“计划”、“相信”、“估计”和类似陈述等术语来识别。除其他陈述外，本公告中管理层的业务展望和报价以及公司的战略和运营计划包含前瞻性陈述。公司还可能在向美国证券交易委员会（“SEC”）提交的20-F和6-K表格定期报告、向股东提交的年度报告、新闻稿和其他书面材料以及其管理人员、董事或员工向第三方做出的口头声明中做出书面或口头前瞻性陈述。非历史事实的陈述，包括有关公司信念和期望的陈述，都是前瞻性陈述。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FORD\">向前</a>-前瞻性陈述涉及固有风险和不确定性。许多因素可能导致实际结果与任何前瞻性陈述中包含的结果存在重大差异，包括但不限于以下内容：公司的增长战略；全球金融市场的趋势和竞争；全球新冠肺炎疫情的影响；以及与本公司所处行业及整体经济状况有关的政府政策<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>和其他国家。有关这些和其他风险的更多信息包含在公司向SEC提交的文件中。本新闻稿和附件中提供的所有信息均截至本新闻稿发布之日，公司不承担更新任何前瞻性声明的义务，除非适用法律要求。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>UP Fintech Reports More Than 60% of Newly Funded Accounts Acquired From International Markets<blockquote>老虎证券报告称，超过60%的新资金账户是从国际市场获得的</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUP Fintech Reports More Than 60% of Newly Funded Accounts Acquired From International Markets<blockquote>老虎证券报告称，超过60%的新资金账户是从国际市场获得的</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-10 16:01</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LBIX\">Leading</a> online brokerage firm, UP Fintech Holding Limited (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a>: TIGR) (“UP Fintech” or the “Company”), today reported revenues of US$60.2 million for the second quarter ended June 30, 2021 compared to revenue of US$30.3 million in the second quarter of 2020. Notably, more than 60% of the Company’s newly funded accounts were derived from international markets in the quarter. Growth was driven by enhanced platform capabilities and rising demand for convenient access to global brokerage services.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LBIX\">领先的</a>网上经纪行、老虎证券控股有限公司(<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">纳斯达克</a>：TIGR）（“老虎证券”或“公司”）今天公布截至2021年6月30日的第二季度收入为6020万美元，而2020年第二季度的收入为3030万美元。值得注意的是，该公司本季度超过60%的新增资金账户来自国际市场。增长是由增强的平台功能和对便捷获取全球经纪服务的需求不断增长推动的。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://ir.itiger.com/news-releases/news-release-details/fintech-holding-limited-reports-unaudited-second-quarter-2021\" target=\"_blank\"><b>UP Fintech Holding Limited Reports Unaudited Second Quarter 2021 Financial Results</b></a></p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://ir.itiger.com/news-releases/news-release-details/fintech-holding-limited-reports-unaudited-second-quarter-2021\" target=\"_blank\"><b>老虎证券控股有限公司报告未经审计的2021年第二季度财务业绩</b></a></blockquote></p><p> “We maintained our solid business momentum with a high client retention rate and increased operational synergies, ”commented Mr. Wu Tianhua, founder and CEO of UP Fintech. “I am confident in the positive outlook for our Company and our industry. Our singular focus is to employ technology to make investing more efficient and we are committed to increasing the breadth and diversity of our product offerings, as well as leveraging our leading position in underwriting and ESOP (Employee Share Ownership Plans) to attract new clients.”</p><p><blockquote>老虎证券创始人兼首席执行官巫天华先生评论道：“我们保持了稳健的业务势头，客户保留率高，运营协同效应增强。”“我对我们公司和行业的积极前景充满信心。我们的唯一重点是利用技术提高投资效率，我们致力于增加产品的广度和多样性，并利用我们在承保和ESOP（员工持股计划）方面的领先地位来吸引新客户。”</blockquote></p><p> During the second quarter, the total number of funded accounts increased to 529,100. The Company added more funded accounts in the first six months of 2021 than it did in its entire cumulative operating history. The total account balance increased 188.9% year-over-year to US$23.9 billion as the Company continued to attract new clients from multiple international markets. In Singapore, UP Fintech’s local subsidiary, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">Tiger Brokers</a> (Singapore) Pte. Ltd., launched new products and in-APP functions such as an industry heatmap, Mini USD/CNH futures, and OSE futures, supplementing the wide range of analytical tools and securities trading functions available on the Company’s platform.</p><p><blockquote>第二季度，资金账户总数增至52.91万个。该公司在2021年前六个月增加的资金账户数量超过了其整个累计运营历史。随着公司继续吸引来自多个国际市场的新客户，账户余额总额同比增长188.9%至239亿美元。在新加坡，老虎证券当地的子公司，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">老虎证券</a>（新加坡）私人有限公司。有限公司推出了新产品和应用内功能，如行业热图、迷你美元/离岸人民币期货和OSE期货，补充了公司平台上广泛的分析工具和证券交易功能。</blockquote></p><p> The Company also recently announced that it has received approval-in-principle to be admitted as a Clearing Member of The Central Depository (Pte) Limited (CDP), and a trading member of Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Limited (SGX) and Singapore Exchange Derivatives Trading Limited. These partnerships aim to improve the user experience and further strengthen the Company’s presence in the Singaporean market.</p><p><blockquote>该公司最近还宣布，已获得原则批准成为中央存管（私人）有限公司（CDP）的结算会员，以及新加坡证券交易所交易有限公司（SGX）和新加坡交易所衍生品交易有限公司的交易会员。这些合作伙伴关系旨在改善用户体验，并进一步加强公司在新加坡市场的影响力。</blockquote></p><p> The Company’s ESOP business continued to exhibit healthy growth with 51 new clients, up from 41 new clients in the previous quarter；ESOP adoption is accelerating and in the first six months of 2021 the Company added more new clients than it did in all of 2020. The Company is a leader in providing extensive expertise and guidance for start-ups at every stage of their ESOP from initial establishment through to execution and reporting. In addition, the Company is now offering its ESOP service to A-Share companies, further expanding its prospective client base.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的员工持股计划业务继续保持健康增长，新增客户51家，高于上一季度的41家；员工持股计划的采用正在加速，2021年前六个月，该公司增加的新客户比2020年全年都多。该公司是一家领先的公司，在员工持股计划的每个阶段为初创企业提供广泛的专业知识和指导，从最初建立到执行和报告。此外，本公司现正向A股公司提供员工持股计划服务，进一步扩大其潜在客户群。</blockquote></p><p> The Company served as an underwriter or member of the selling group in 17 IPOs, and in total provided subscriptions to 29 IPOs, including several high profile Hong Kong IPOs such as those of Angelalign (HK:6699) and Nayuki (HK:2150). In addition, The Company completed its own follow-on offering of 6.5 million <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFG\">American</a> Depository Shares in the second quarter and even&nbsp;offered retail investors the opportunity to subscribe through its flagship mobile trading APP, Tiger Trade.</p><p><blockquote>公司在17宗IPO中担任承销商或销售团队成员，共为29宗IPO提供认购，其中包括时代天使(HK：6699)和奈雪(HK：2150)等多宗备受瞩目的香港IPO。此外，公司完成了自己的后续发行650万<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFG\">美国的</a>第二季度存托股票，甚至为散户投资者提供了通过其旗舰移动交易应用程序Tiger Trade认购的机会。</blockquote></p><p> “While the market will have its ups and downs and competition will remain intense, our innovative platform and technology have been built to create long term value for our clients,” Wu stated. “User experience has always been our top priority and we see significant room for growth as we continue to broaden our global footprint in the near-term.”</p><p><blockquote>吴表示：“虽然市场会有起有落，竞争仍将激烈，但我们的创新平台和技术旨在为客户创造长期价值。”“用户体验一直是我们的首要任务，随着我们在短期内继续扩大全球足迹，我们看到了巨大的增长空间。”</blockquote></p><p> Safe Harbor Statement</p><p><blockquote>安全港声明</blockquote></p><p></p><p> This announcement contains forward-looking statements. These statements are made under the “safe harbor” provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements can be identified by terminology such as “will,” “expects,” “anticipates,” “future,” “intends,” “plans,” “believes,” “estimates” and similar statements. Among other statements, the business outlook and quotations from management in this announcement, as well as the Company’s strategic and operational plans, contain forward-looking statements. The Company may also make written or oral forward-looking statements in its periodic reports to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) on Forms 20-F and 6-K, in its annual report to shareholders, in press releases and other written materials and in oral statements made by its officers, directors or employees to third parties. Statements that are not historical facts, including statements about the Company’s beliefs and expectations, are forward-looking statements. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FORD\">Forward</a>-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties. A number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statement, including but not limited to the following: the Company’s growth strategies; trends and competition in global financial markets; the effects of the global COVID-19 pandemic; and governmental policies relating to the Company’s industry and general economic conditions in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> and other countries. Further information regarding these and other risks is included in the Company’s filings with the SEC. All information provided in this press release and in the attachments is as of the date of this press release, and the Company undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement, except as required under applicable law.</p><p><blockquote>本公告包含前瞻性陈述。这些声明是根据1995年美国私人证券诉讼改革法案的“安全港”条款做出的。这些前瞻性陈述可以通过“将”、“期望”、“预期”、“未来”、“打算”、“计划”、“相信”、“估计”和类似陈述等术语来识别。除其他陈述外，本公告中管理层的业务展望和报价以及公司的战略和运营计划包含前瞻性陈述。公司还可能在向美国证券交易委员会（“SEC”）提交的20-F和6-K表格定期报告、向股东提交的年度报告、新闻稿和其他书面材料以及其管理人员、董事或员工向第三方做出的口头声明中做出书面或口头前瞻性陈述。非历史事实的陈述，包括有关公司信念和期望的陈述，都是前瞻性陈述。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FORD\">向前</a>-前瞻性陈述涉及固有风险和不确定性。许多因素可能导致实际结果与任何前瞻性陈述中包含的结果存在重大差异，包括但不限于以下内容：公司的增长战略；全球金融市场的趋势和竞争；全球新冠肺炎疫情的影响；以及与本公司所处行业及整体经济状况有关的政府政策<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>和其他国家。有关这些和其他风险的更多信息包含在公司向SEC提交的文件中。本新闻稿和附件中提供的所有信息均截至本新闻稿发布之日，公司不承担更新任何前瞻性声明的义务，除非适用法律要求。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TIGR":"老虎证券"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108076835","content_text":"Leading online brokerage firm, UP Fintech Holding Limited (Nasdaq: TIGR) (“UP Fintech” or the “Company”), today reported revenues of US$60.2 million for the second quarter ended June 30, 2021 compared to revenue of US$30.3 million in the second quarter of 2020. Notably, more than 60% of the Company’s newly funded accounts were derived from international markets in the quarter. Growth was driven by enhanced platform capabilities and rising demand for convenient access to global brokerage services.\nUP Fintech Holding Limited Reports Unaudited Second Quarter 2021 Financial Results\n“We maintained our solid business momentum with a high client retention rate and increased operational synergies, ”commented Mr. Wu Tianhua, founder and CEO of UP Fintech. “I am confident in the positive outlook for our Company and our industry. Our singular focus is to employ technology to make investing more efficient and we are committed to increasing the breadth and diversity of our product offerings, as well as leveraging our leading position in underwriting and ESOP (Employee Share Ownership Plans) to attract new clients.”\nDuring the second quarter, the total number of funded accounts increased to 529,100. The Company added more funded accounts in the first six months of 2021 than it did in its entire cumulative operating history. The total account balance increased 188.9% year-over-year to US$23.9 billion as the Company continued to attract new clients from multiple international markets. In Singapore, UP Fintech’s local subsidiary, Tiger Brokers (Singapore) Pte. Ltd., launched new products and in-APP functions such as an industry heatmap, Mini USD/CNH futures, and OSE futures, supplementing the wide range of analytical tools and securities trading functions available on the Company’s platform.\nThe Company also recently announced that it has received approval-in-principle to be admitted as a Clearing Member of The Central Depository (Pte) Limited (CDP), and a trading member of Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Limited (SGX) and Singapore Exchange Derivatives Trading Limited. These partnerships aim to improve the user experience and further strengthen the Company’s presence in the Singaporean market.\nThe Company’s ESOP business continued to exhibit healthy growth with 51 new clients, up from 41 new clients in the previous quarter；ESOP adoption is accelerating and in the first six months of 2021 the Company added more new clients than it did in all of 2020. The Company is a leader in providing extensive expertise and guidance for start-ups at every stage of their ESOP from initial establishment through to execution and reporting. In addition, the Company is now offering its ESOP service to A-Share companies, further expanding its prospective client base.\nThe Company served as an underwriter or member of the selling group in 17 IPOs, and in total provided subscriptions to 29 IPOs, including several high profile Hong Kong IPOs such as those of Angelalign (HK:6699) and Nayuki (HK:2150). In addition, The Company completed its own follow-on offering of 6.5 million American Depository Shares in the second quarter and even offered retail investors the opportunity to subscribe through its flagship mobile trading APP, Tiger Trade.\n“While the market will have its ups and downs and competition will remain intense, our innovative platform and technology have been built to create long term value for our clients,” Wu stated. “User experience has always been our top priority and we see significant room for growth as we continue to broaden our global footprint in the near-term.”\n\nSafe Harbor Statement\nThis announcement contains forward-looking statements. These statements are made under the “safe harbor” provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements can be identified by terminology such as “will,” “expects,” “anticipates,” “future,” “intends,” “plans,” “believes,” “estimates” and similar statements. Among other statements, the business outlook and quotations from management in this announcement, as well as the Company’s strategic and operational plans, contain forward-looking statements. The Company may also make written or oral forward-looking statements in its periodic reports to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) on Forms 20-F and 6-K, in its annual report to shareholders, in press releases and other written materials and in oral statements made by its officers, directors or employees to third parties. Statements that are not historical facts, including statements about the Company’s beliefs and expectations, are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties. A number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statement, including but not limited to the following: the Company’s growth strategies; trends and competition in global financial markets; the effects of the global COVID-19 pandemic; and governmental policies relating to the Company’s industry and general economic conditions in China and other countries. Further information regarding these and other risks is included in the Company’s filings with the SEC. All information provided in this press release and in the attachments is as of the date of this press release, and the Company undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement, except as required under applicable law.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TIGR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1651,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":883374182,"gmtCreate":1631212894246,"gmtModify":1631889101755,"author":{"id":"3583650394724849","authorId":"3583650394724849","name":"ThECROW","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583650394724849","idStr":"3583650394724849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good advice&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;","listText":"Good advice&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;","text":"Good advice [强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/883374182","repostId":"1150166367","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":832,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":880787447,"gmtCreate":1631083181989,"gmtModify":1631889101757,"author":{"id":"3583650394724849","authorId":"3583650394724849","name":"ThECROW","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583650394724849","idStr":"3583650394724849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[弱]&nbsp;","listText":"[弱]&nbsp;","text":"[弱]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880787447","repostId":"2165368421","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2165368421","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1631060195,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2165368421?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-08 08:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stocks may fall 15% by year-end, warns Morgan Stanley. Here are some portfolio moves investors might consider.<blockquote>摩根士丹利警告称，到年底，股市可能会下跌15%。以下是投资者可能考虑的一些投资组合变动。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2165368421","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"'Markets are priced for perfection and vulnerable,' says the CIO of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management","content":"<p>'Markets are priced for perfection and vulnerable,' says the CIO of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利财富管理公司首席信息官表示，“市场的定价是完美和脆弱的”</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a01bf576907b812090131b9f0a817516\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Investors appear to be putting their 'faith' in the Federal Reserve, says Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摩根士丹利财富管理公司表示，投资者似乎对美联储抱有“信心”。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley's optimistic view of the economy isn't keeping it from warning about a looming correction in the U.S. stock market.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利对经济的乐观看法并没有阻止其对美国股市即将出现调整的警告。</blockquote></p><p> \"The issue is that the markets are priced for perfection and vulnerable, especially since there hasn't been a correction greater than 10% since the March 2020 low,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in a note Tuesday. The bank's global investment committee expects a stock-market pullback of 10% to 15% before the end of the year, she wrote.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利财富管理公司首席投资官丽莎·沙莱特(Lisa Shalett)在一份报告中表示：“问题在于，市场定价完美且脆弱，特别是自2020年3月低点以来，调整幅度从未超过10%。”周二。她写道，该银行全球投资委员会预计年底前股市将回调10%至15%。</blockquote></p><p> \"The strength of major U.S. equity indexes during August and the first few days of September, pushing to yet more daily and consecutive new highs in the face of concerning developments, is no longer constructive in the spirit of 'climbing a wall of worry,'\" said Shalett. \"Consider taking profits in index funds,\" she said, as stock benchmarks have dismissed \"resurgent COVID-19 hospitalizations, plummeting consumer confidence, higher interest rates and significant geopolitical shifts.\"</p><p><blockquote>“美国主要股指在8月和9月头几天的强势，面对令人担忧的事态发展，每天都创下更多连续新高，但本着‘爬上担忧之墙’的精神，这不再具有建设性。””沙莱特说。她表示，“考虑在指数基金中获利了结”，因为股票基准已经排除了“COVID-19住院人数死灰复燃、消费者信心暴跌、利率上升和地缘政治重大转变”的影响。</blockquote></p><p> She suggested rebalancing investment portfolios toward \"high-quality cyclicals,\" particularly stocks in the financial sector, while seeking \"consistent dividend-payers in consumer services, consumer staples and health care.\"</p><p><blockquote>她建议重新平衡投资组合，转向“优质周期性股票”，特别是金融行业的股票，同时寻求“消费服务、必需消费品和医疗保健领域持续的股息支付者”。</blockquote></p><p> Megatech stocks have been defying the transition that stocks typically make mid-cycle, with their price-to-earnings ratios remaining elevated despite declining in other areas of the market, such as cyclical and small-cap stocks, the Morgan Stanley report shows.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利的报告显示，大型科技股一直无视股票通常在周期中期进行的转型，尽管市场其他领域（例如周期性股票和小盘股）下跌，但它们的市盈率仍然很高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3a39edba8046c13b53de255d846cd3a\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"435\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>A Morgan Stanley Wealth Management note from Sept. 7, 2021.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摩根士丹利财富管理公司2021年9月7日的报告。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> \"As business and market cycles move through recession, recovery, repair and on to expansion, interest rates typically begin to normalize and price/earnings (P/E) ratios compress as stock gains are increasingly powered by profit growth as opposed to policymakers,\" wrote Shalett. But dominant megacap tech leaders in the stock market have not followed that \"playbook.\"</p><p><blockquote>“随着商业和市场周期经历衰退、复苏、修复和扩张，利率通常会开始正常化，市盈率(P/E)会压缩，因为股票上涨越来越多地受到利润增长而不是政策制定者的推动，”沙莱特写道。但股市中占主导地位的大型科技领导者并没有遵循这一“剧本”。</blockquote></p><p> Although Morgan Stanley remains \"sanguine on the economic outlook,\" with Shalett citing \"solid prospects for capital expenditures and strengthening labor markets,\" the bank's global investment committee is increasingly worried about market valuations, according to her note.</p><p><blockquote>根据她的报告，尽管摩根士丹利仍然“对经济前景持乐观态度”，沙莱特引用了“资本支出和劳动力市场走强的稳健前景”，但该行全球投资委员会越来越担心市场估值。</blockquote></p><p> The tech-laden Nasdaq Composite index ended Tuesday at another all-time closing high as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&amp;P 500 benchmarks for U.S. stocks retreated. The Dow, a blue-chip gauge of the U.S. stock market, and the S&amp;P 500, an index that is top-heavy with tech exposure, remain near their recent peaks.</p><p><blockquote>随着道琼斯工业平均指数和美国股市标普500基准指数回落，以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数周二收于另一个历史收盘高点。衡量美国股市蓝筹股的道琼斯指数和科技股头重脚轻的标普500指数仍接近近期峰值。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose almost 5 basis points Tuesday to 1.37%, the highest since July 13, according to Dow Jones Market data. Bond yields and prices move in opposite directions.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，根据道琼斯市场数据，10年期国债收益率周二上涨近5个基点至1.37%，为7月13日以来的最高水平。债券收益率和价格走势相反。</blockquote></p><p> \"Real interest rates are finally grinding higher not only because Fed tapering is expected to officially commence by the end of the year, but as global economies rebound and 'safe haven' foreign liquidity moves out of overpriced U.S. Treasuries,\" Shalett said. \"Higher interest rates should pressure price/earnings multiples, which are already well above historic norms, especially when taking into account current levels of measured and realized inflation.\"</p><p><blockquote>Shalett表示：“实际利率最终走高，不仅因为美联储预计将在今年年底正式开始缩减规模，而且随着全球经济反弹以及‘避险’外国流动性从定价过高的美国国债中流出。”“更高的利率应该会给市盈率带来压力，市盈率已经远高于历史正常水平，特别是考虑到当前衡量和实现的通胀水平。”</blockquote></p><p> Investors appear to be putting their \"faith\" in the Federal Reserve, with its \"masterfully nuanced communications,\" to achieve its policy goals, according to Shalett. Fed Chair Jerome Powell \"has seemingly convinced investors that he and his policymaking colleagues are capable of delicately threading the policy needle without making mistakes,\" she wrote.</p><p><blockquote>沙利特表示，投资者似乎对美联储“充满信心”，通过其“巧妙细致入微的沟通”来实现其政策目标。她写道，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔“似乎让投资者相信，他和他的政策制定同事有能力在不犯错误的情况下微妙地穿针引线”。</blockquote></p><p> For example, markets appeared encouraged after the central bank reiterated its view at the Jackson Hole, Wyo., economic policy symposium in late August that inflation is temporary, the eventual tapering of its asset purchases is not policy tightening, and that \"actual rate hikes are tied to the very high bar of their new criteria of 'maximum' employment,\" according to Shalett.</p><p><blockquote>例如，在央行在8月底怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔经济政策研讨会上重申其观点后，市场似乎受到了鼓舞，即通胀是暂时的，最终缩减资产购买并不是政策收紧，并且“实际加息”沙利特表示，这与他们新的‘最大’就业标准的非常高的标准有关。</blockquote></p><p> \"Both stock and bond investors cheered,\" she said, \"leaving asset bubbles and financial stability concerns be damned.\"</p><p><blockquote>“股票和债券投资者都欢呼雀跃，”她说，“让资产泡沫和金融稳定担忧见鬼去吧。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks may fall 15% by year-end, warns Morgan Stanley. Here are some portfolio moves investors might consider.<blockquote>摩根士丹利警告称，到年底，股市可能会下跌15%。以下是投资者可能考虑的一些投资组合变动。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks may fall 15% by year-end, warns Morgan Stanley. Here are some portfolio moves investors might consider.<blockquote>摩根士丹利警告称，到年底，股市可能会下跌15%。以下是投资者可能考虑的一些投资组合变动。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-08 08:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>'Markets are priced for perfection and vulnerable,' says the CIO of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利财富管理公司首席信息官表示，“市场的定价是完美和脆弱的”</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a01bf576907b812090131b9f0a817516\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Investors appear to be putting their 'faith' in the Federal Reserve, says Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摩根士丹利财富管理公司表示，投资者似乎对美联储抱有“信心”。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley's optimistic view of the economy isn't keeping it from warning about a looming correction in the U.S. stock market.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利对经济的乐观看法并没有阻止其对美国股市即将出现调整的警告。</blockquote></p><p> \"The issue is that the markets are priced for perfection and vulnerable, especially since there hasn't been a correction greater than 10% since the March 2020 low,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in a note Tuesday. The bank's global investment committee expects a stock-market pullback of 10% to 15% before the end of the year, she wrote.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利财富管理公司首席投资官丽莎·沙莱特(Lisa Shalett)在一份报告中表示：“问题在于，市场定价完美且脆弱，特别是自2020年3月低点以来，调整幅度从未超过10%。”周二。她写道，该银行全球投资委员会预计年底前股市将回调10%至15%。</blockquote></p><p> \"The strength of major U.S. equity indexes during August and the first few days of September, pushing to yet more daily and consecutive new highs in the face of concerning developments, is no longer constructive in the spirit of 'climbing a wall of worry,'\" said Shalett. \"Consider taking profits in index funds,\" she said, as stock benchmarks have dismissed \"resurgent COVID-19 hospitalizations, plummeting consumer confidence, higher interest rates and significant geopolitical shifts.\"</p><p><blockquote>“美国主要股指在8月和9月头几天的强势，面对令人担忧的事态发展，每天都创下更多连续新高，但本着‘爬上担忧之墙’的精神，这不再具有建设性。””沙莱特说。她表示，“考虑在指数基金中获利了结”，因为股票基准已经排除了“COVID-19住院人数死灰复燃、消费者信心暴跌、利率上升和地缘政治重大转变”的影响。</blockquote></p><p> She suggested rebalancing investment portfolios toward \"high-quality cyclicals,\" particularly stocks in the financial sector, while seeking \"consistent dividend-payers in consumer services, consumer staples and health care.\"</p><p><blockquote>她建议重新平衡投资组合，转向“优质周期性股票”，特别是金融行业的股票，同时寻求“消费服务、必需消费品和医疗保健领域持续的股息支付者”。</blockquote></p><p> Megatech stocks have been defying the transition that stocks typically make mid-cycle, with their price-to-earnings ratios remaining elevated despite declining in other areas of the market, such as cyclical and small-cap stocks, the Morgan Stanley report shows.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利的报告显示，大型科技股一直无视股票通常在周期中期进行的转型，尽管市场其他领域（例如周期性股票和小盘股）下跌，但它们的市盈率仍然很高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3a39edba8046c13b53de255d846cd3a\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"435\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>A Morgan Stanley Wealth Management note from Sept. 7, 2021.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摩根士丹利财富管理公司2021年9月7日的报告。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> \"As business and market cycles move through recession, recovery, repair and on to expansion, interest rates typically begin to normalize and price/earnings (P/E) ratios compress as stock gains are increasingly powered by profit growth as opposed to policymakers,\" wrote Shalett. But dominant megacap tech leaders in the stock market have not followed that \"playbook.\"</p><p><blockquote>“随着商业和市场周期经历衰退、复苏、修复和扩张，利率通常会开始正常化，市盈率(P/E)会压缩，因为股票上涨越来越多地受到利润增长而不是政策制定者的推动，”沙莱特写道。但股市中占主导地位的大型科技领导者并没有遵循这一“剧本”。</blockquote></p><p> Although Morgan Stanley remains \"sanguine on the economic outlook,\" with Shalett citing \"solid prospects for capital expenditures and strengthening labor markets,\" the bank's global investment committee is increasingly worried about market valuations, according to her note.</p><p><blockquote>根据她的报告，尽管摩根士丹利仍然“对经济前景持乐观态度”，沙莱特引用了“资本支出和劳动力市场走强的稳健前景”，但该行全球投资委员会越来越担心市场估值。</blockquote></p><p> The tech-laden Nasdaq Composite index ended Tuesday at another all-time closing high as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&amp;P 500 benchmarks for U.S. stocks retreated. The Dow, a blue-chip gauge of the U.S. stock market, and the S&amp;P 500, an index that is top-heavy with tech exposure, remain near their recent peaks.</p><p><blockquote>随着道琼斯工业平均指数和美国股市标普500基准指数回落，以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数周二收于另一个历史收盘高点。衡量美国股市蓝筹股的道琼斯指数和科技股头重脚轻的标普500指数仍接近近期峰值。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose almost 5 basis points Tuesday to 1.37%, the highest since July 13, according to Dow Jones Market data. Bond yields and prices move in opposite directions.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，根据道琼斯市场数据，10年期国债收益率周二上涨近5个基点至1.37%，为7月13日以来的最高水平。债券收益率和价格走势相反。</blockquote></p><p> \"Real interest rates are finally grinding higher not only because Fed tapering is expected to officially commence by the end of the year, but as global economies rebound and 'safe haven' foreign liquidity moves out of overpriced U.S. Treasuries,\" Shalett said. \"Higher interest rates should pressure price/earnings multiples, which are already well above historic norms, especially when taking into account current levels of measured and realized inflation.\"</p><p><blockquote>Shalett表示：“实际利率最终走高，不仅因为美联储预计将在今年年底正式开始缩减规模，而且随着全球经济反弹以及‘避险’外国流动性从定价过高的美国国债中流出。”“更高的利率应该会给市盈率带来压力，市盈率已经远高于历史正常水平，特别是考虑到当前衡量和实现的通胀水平。”</blockquote></p><p> Investors appear to be putting their \"faith\" in the Federal Reserve, with its \"masterfully nuanced communications,\" to achieve its policy goals, according to Shalett. Fed Chair Jerome Powell \"has seemingly convinced investors that he and his policymaking colleagues are capable of delicately threading the policy needle without making mistakes,\" she wrote.</p><p><blockquote>沙利特表示，投资者似乎对美联储“充满信心”，通过其“巧妙细致入微的沟通”来实现其政策目标。她写道，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔“似乎让投资者相信，他和他的政策制定同事有能力在不犯错误的情况下微妙地穿针引线”。</blockquote></p><p> For example, markets appeared encouraged after the central bank reiterated its view at the Jackson Hole, Wyo., economic policy symposium in late August that inflation is temporary, the eventual tapering of its asset purchases is not policy tightening, and that \"actual rate hikes are tied to the very high bar of their new criteria of 'maximum' employment,\" according to Shalett.</p><p><blockquote>例如，在央行在8月底怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔经济政策研讨会上重申其观点后，市场似乎受到了鼓舞，即通胀是暂时的，最终缩减资产购买并不是政策收紧，并且“实际加息”沙利特表示，这与他们新的‘最大’就业标准的非常高的标准有关。</blockquote></p><p> \"Both stock and bond investors cheered,\" she said, \"leaving asset bubbles and financial stability concerns be damned.\"</p><p><blockquote>“股票和债券投资者都欢呼雀跃，”她说，“让资产泡沫和金融稳定担忧见鬼去吧。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-may-fall-15-by-year-end-warns-morgan-stanley-here-are-some-portfolio-moves-investors-might-consider-11631057723?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-may-fall-15-by-year-end-warns-morgan-stanley-here-are-some-portfolio-moves-investors-might-consider-11631057723?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"2165368421","content_text":"'Markets are priced for perfection and vulnerable,' says the CIO of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management\nInvestors appear to be putting their 'faith' in the Federal Reserve, says Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.\nMorgan Stanley's optimistic view of the economy isn't keeping it from warning about a looming correction in the U.S. stock market.\n\"The issue is that the markets are priced for perfection and vulnerable, especially since there hasn't been a correction greater than 10% since the March 2020 low,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in a note Tuesday. The bank's global investment committee expects a stock-market pullback of 10% to 15% before the end of the year, she wrote.\n\"The strength of major U.S. equity indexes during August and the first few days of September, pushing to yet more daily and consecutive new highs in the face of concerning developments, is no longer constructive in the spirit of 'climbing a wall of worry,'\" said Shalett. \"Consider taking profits in index funds,\" she said, as stock benchmarks have dismissed \"resurgent COVID-19 hospitalizations, plummeting consumer confidence, higher interest rates and significant geopolitical shifts.\"\nShe suggested rebalancing investment portfolios toward \"high-quality cyclicals,\" particularly stocks in the financial sector, while seeking \"consistent dividend-payers in consumer services, consumer staples and health care.\"\nMegatech stocks have been defying the transition that stocks typically make mid-cycle, with their price-to-earnings ratios remaining elevated despite declining in other areas of the market, such as cyclical and small-cap stocks, the Morgan Stanley report shows.\nA Morgan Stanley Wealth Management note from Sept. 7, 2021.\n\"As business and market cycles move through recession, recovery, repair and on to expansion, interest rates typically begin to normalize and price/earnings (P/E) ratios compress as stock gains are increasingly powered by profit growth as opposed to policymakers,\" wrote Shalett. But dominant megacap tech leaders in the stock market have not followed that \"playbook.\"\nAlthough Morgan Stanley remains \"sanguine on the economic outlook,\" with Shalett citing \"solid prospects for capital expenditures and strengthening labor markets,\" the bank's global investment committee is increasingly worried about market valuations, according to her note.\nThe tech-laden Nasdaq Composite index ended Tuesday at another all-time closing high as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 benchmarks for U.S. stocks retreated. The Dow, a blue-chip gauge of the U.S. stock market, and the S&P 500, an index that is top-heavy with tech exposure, remain near their recent peaks.\nMeanwhile, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose almost 5 basis points Tuesday to 1.37%, the highest since July 13, according to Dow Jones Market data. Bond yields and prices move in opposite directions.\n\"Real interest rates are finally grinding higher not only because Fed tapering is expected to officially commence by the end of the year, but as global economies rebound and 'safe haven' foreign liquidity moves out of overpriced U.S. Treasuries,\" Shalett said. \"Higher interest rates should pressure price/earnings multiples, which are already well above historic norms, especially when taking into account current levels of measured and realized inflation.\"\nInvestors appear to be putting their \"faith\" in the Federal Reserve, with its \"masterfully nuanced communications,\" to achieve its policy goals, according to Shalett. Fed Chair Jerome Powell \"has seemingly convinced investors that he and his policymaking colleagues are capable of delicately threading the policy needle without making mistakes,\" she wrote.\nFor example, markets appeared encouraged after the central bank reiterated its view at the Jackson Hole, Wyo., economic policy symposium in late August that inflation is temporary, the eventual tapering of its asset purchases is not policy tightening, and that \"actual rate hikes are tied to the very high bar of their new criteria of 'maximum' employment,\" according to Shalett.\n\"Both stock and bond investors cheered,\" she said, \"leaving asset bubbles and financial stability concerns be damned.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":891,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":816263016,"gmtCreate":1630504085735,"gmtModify":1631889101761,"author":{"id":"3583650394724849","authorId":"3583650394724849","name":"ThECROW","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583650394724849","idStr":"3583650394724849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[强]&nbsp;","listText":"[强]&nbsp;","text":"[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/816263016","repostId":"1127232048","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1031,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":810239344,"gmtCreate":1629979066888,"gmtModify":1631889101765,"author":{"id":"3583650394724849","authorId":"3583650394724849","name":"ThECROW","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583650394724849","idStr":"3583650394724849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[弱]&nbsp;[抱拳]&nbsp;","listText":"[弱]&nbsp;[抱拳]&nbsp;","text":"[弱] [抱拳]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/810239344","repostId":"1125030506","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1125030506","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629961067,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1125030506?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-26 14:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Has 2 Secret Weapons. No, They're Not New iPhones.<blockquote>苹果有两个秘密武器。不，它们不是新的iPhones。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1125030506","media":"Barrons","summary":"For Apple investors, the focus over the next few weeks is going to be the next generation iPhone, li","content":"<p>For Apple investors, the focus over the next few weeks is going to be the next generation iPhone, likely to be introduced sometime next month. But the company has other levers to drive growth, and not all of them involve hardware.</p><p><blockquote>对于苹果投资者来说，未来几周的焦点将是下一代iPhone，它可能会在下个月某个时候推出。但该公司还有其他推动增长的杠杆，而且并非所有杠杆都涉及硬件。</blockquote></p><p> In particular,Apple(ticker: AAPL) has a substantial and growing opportunity in advertising and search revenue. A pair of research notes from the Street on Wednesday highlight how both areas should provide a material boost to top-line growth in the months and years ahead — while also noting a few associated risks.</p><p><blockquote>特别是，苹果（股票代码：AAPL）在广告和搜索收入方面拥有巨大且不断增长的机会。华尔街周三发布的两份研究报告强调了这两个领域应该如何在未来几个月和几年为营收增长提供实质性推动，同时也指出了一些相关风险。</blockquote></p><p> In a new report, Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani dove into Apple’s growing opportunity in advertising, and he likes what he found. Daryanani thinks Apple’s ad business can grow to $20 billion in the September 2025 fiscal year, from an estimated $2 billion in fiscal 2020, most of that from App Store ads.</p><p><blockquote>在一份新报告中，Evercore ISI分析师Amit Daryanani深入探讨了苹果在广告领域不断增长的机会，他喜欢自己的发现。Daryanani认为，到2025年9月财年，苹果的广告业务可能会从2020财年的估计20亿美元增长到200亿美元，其中大部分来自App Store广告。</blockquote></p><p> He notes that the projected growth would be similar to that of&nbsp;Amazon’s(AMZN) ad business, which has expanded to about $20 billion from about $3 billion over a four-year span. Daryanani asserts that ads could account for as much as 9% of Apple’s earnings per share in fiscal 2025 if the business hits his target.</p><p><blockquote>他指出，预计的增长将与亚马逊(AMZN)广告业务的增长类似，该业务在四年内已从约30亿美元扩大到约200亿美元。Daryanani声称，如果业务达到他的目标，ads可能占苹果2025财年每股收益的9%。</blockquote></p><p> “Apple’s advertising business remains an underappreciated lever for upside as we go forward and provides them with a unique way to ensure consumer privacy is upheld, but also further enhance the monetization mechanisms,” Daryanani writes in a research note.</p><p><blockquote>达里亚纳尼在一份研究报告中写道：“随着我们的前进，苹果的广告业务仍然是一个未被充分重视的上升杠杆，并为他们提供了一种独特的方式来确保消费者隐私得到维护，同时也进一步增强了货币化机制。”</blockquote></p><p> Under Apple’s “App Tracking Transparency” program, apps must ask for permission before tracking user activity across other companies’ apps and websites. The program has been positioned as a privacy measure, but has the secondary effect of shifting more ad dollars to Apple’s own advertising platform.</p><p><blockquote>根据苹果的“应用程序跟踪透明度”计划，应用程序在跟踪其他公司应用程序和网站的用户活动之前必须获得许可。该计划被定位为隐私措施，但具有将更多广告收入转移到苹果自己的广告平台的次要效果。</blockquote></p><p> Daryanani sees the biggest opportunity in shifting the App Store ad platform to content discovery, not just content delivery — ads offer a way for app developers to attract customers, in the same way that Amazon ads help sellers cut through the clutter to lure shoppers. And he sees additional advertising opportunities in Apple Maps and Apple TV+, among other places.</p><p><blockquote>Daryanani认为最大的机会是将App Store广告平台转向内容发现，而不仅仅是内容交付——广告为应用开发者提供了一种吸引客户的方式，就像亚马逊广告帮助卖家减少混乱以吸引购物者一样。他在苹果地图和苹果TV+等地方看到了更多的广告机会。</blockquote></p><p> “Advertising is a great growth opportunity for Apple and their tremendous installed base gives them a competitive advantage that they have not effectively exploited in the past,” he adds. “Recent actions indicate this is set to change as Apple looks to capture its fair share of a $1 trillion market.”</p><p><blockquote>“广告对苹果来说是一个巨大的增长机会，他们庞大的安装基础为他们提供了过去没有有效利用的竞争优势，”他补充道。“最近的行动表明，随着苹果希望在1万亿美元的市场中占据公平份额，这种情况将会改变。”</blockquote></p><p> Daryanani is not the only analyst that sees potential expansion in the Apple ad business. Earlier this month,Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi wrote a long research note on the same topic; his conclusion was that ads could be a $7 billion to $10 billion business for Apple in fiscal 2023 or 2024. He noted that growth drivers for the Apple ad business include the June addition of search ads in China, higher ad loads, and the introduction of banner ads to the App Store in May. Sacconaghi also pointed out that Apple generates very modest revenue today — likely under $500 million a year — from ads in the Apple News and Stocks apps. Daryanani echoed all of those points in his report.</p><p><blockquote>Daryanani并不是唯一一位看到苹果广告业务潜在扩张的分析师。本月早些时候，伯恩斯坦分析师托尼·萨科纳吉（Toni Sacconaghi）就同一主题撰写了一篇长篇研究报告；他的结论是，在2023或2024财年，广告可能成为苹果70亿至100亿美元的业务。他指出，苹果广告业务的增长动力包括6月份在中国增加的搜索广告、更高的广告负载以及5月份在App Store引入横幅广告。萨科纳吉还指出，苹果目前从苹果新闻和股票应用程序中的广告中产生的收入非常有限，每年可能不到5亿美元。Daryanani在他的报告中呼应了所有这些观点。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, in a new note on Wednesday, Sacconaghi turns his attention to Apple’s search relationship with Google, a unit of&nbsp;Alphabet(GOOGL). Google pays Apple a substantial annual fee to be the default search engine on the iPhone — a relationship that has drawn the attention of the Justice Department, which last year filed suit against Google for monopolizing its control of the search market,specifically citing the Apple deal in the complaint.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，在周三的一份新报告中，萨科纳吉将注意力转向了苹果与Alphabet（GOOGL）旗下谷歌的搜索关系。谷歌向苹果支付了一大笔年费，成为iPhone的默认搜索引擎——这种关系引起了司法部的注意，司法部去年起诉谷歌垄断了搜索市场的控制权，特别是在诉状中引用了苹果的交易。</blockquote></p><p> Neither Apple nor Google has been transparent about the terms of their relationship. Sacconaghi this morning writes that he now thinks Google’s payments to Apple in fiscal 2020 were $10 billion, higher than his previous estimate of $8 billion. And he thinks the payment could jump to $15 billion in fiscal 2021, driving up Apple’s services revenue, and contributing an estimated 9% of Apple’s overall gross profits. He estimates that 39% of Google’s traffic acquisition costs this year will go to Apple, up from an estimated 13% in 2013.</p><p><blockquote>苹果和谷歌都没有公开他们的关系条款。萨科纳吉今天早上写道，他现在认为谷歌在2020财年向苹果支付的款项为100亿美元，高于他之前估计的80亿美元。他认为，到2021财年，这笔付款可能会跃升至150亿美元，从而推高苹果的服务收入，并贡献苹果整体毛利润的约9%。他估计，谷歌今年39%的流量获取成本将流向苹果，高于2013年估计的13%。</blockquote></p><p> Search is really the largest advertising pool for Apple. Sacconaghi estimates that Apple’s overall revenue from advertising in fiscal 2020 was $12.4 billion – and that $10 billion of that came from the company’s search relationship with Google.</p><p><blockquote>搜索确实是苹果最大的广告池。Sacconaghi估计，苹果2020财年的广告总收入为124亿美元，其中100亿美元来自该公司与谷歌的搜索关系。</blockquote></p><p> Sacconaghi sees some risk in Apple’s growing connection with Google. For one thing, there is regulatory focus on the situation – although he thinks any conclusion of the Justice Department lawsuit is “years away,” he sees a potential 4% to 5% risk to Apple’s profits from an adverse ruling. He also thinks there is some risk that Google could choose to stop paying Apple, or look to renegotiate the terms of its deal and pay less.</p><p><blockquote>萨科纳吉认为苹果与谷歌日益增长的联系存在一些风险。一方面，监管机构正在关注这种情况——尽管他认为司法部诉讼的任何结论“还需要数年时间”，但他认为不利裁决可能会给苹果的利润带来4%至5%的潜在风险。他还认为，谷歌可能会选择停止向苹果付款，或者寻求重新谈判交易条款并减少付款，这存在一定的风险。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Sacconaghi says Google pays up for the deal in part to ensure&nbsp;Microsoft(MSFT) — the only real rival for Google in search — does not outbid it. But he also says that with payments to Apple likely to approach $20 billion in fiscal 2022, “it is not implausible that Google could revisit its strategy.”</p><p><blockquote>萨科纳吉表示，谷歌支付这笔交易的部分原因是为了确保微软（MSFT）——谷歌在搜索领域唯一真正的竞争对手——的出价不会高于它。但他也表示，由于2022财年向苹果支付的款项可能接近200亿美元，“谷歌重新审视其战略并非不可能。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Has 2 Secret Weapons. No, They're Not New iPhones.<blockquote>苹果有两个秘密武器。不，它们不是新的iPhones。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Has 2 Secret Weapons. No, They're Not New iPhones.<blockquote>苹果有两个秘密武器。不，它们不是新的iPhones。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-26 14:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>For Apple investors, the focus over the next few weeks is going to be the next generation iPhone, likely to be introduced sometime next month. But the company has other levers to drive growth, and not all of them involve hardware.</p><p><blockquote>对于苹果投资者来说，未来几周的焦点将是下一代iPhone，它可能会在下个月某个时候推出。但该公司还有其他推动增长的杠杆，而且并非所有杠杆都涉及硬件。</blockquote></p><p> In particular,Apple(ticker: AAPL) has a substantial and growing opportunity in advertising and search revenue. A pair of research notes from the Street on Wednesday highlight how both areas should provide a material boost to top-line growth in the months and years ahead — while also noting a few associated risks.</p><p><blockquote>特别是，苹果（股票代码：AAPL）在广告和搜索收入方面拥有巨大且不断增长的机会。华尔街周三发布的两份研究报告强调了这两个领域应该如何在未来几个月和几年为营收增长提供实质性推动，同时也指出了一些相关风险。</blockquote></p><p> In a new report, Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani dove into Apple’s growing opportunity in advertising, and he likes what he found. Daryanani thinks Apple’s ad business can grow to $20 billion in the September 2025 fiscal year, from an estimated $2 billion in fiscal 2020, most of that from App Store ads.</p><p><blockquote>在一份新报告中，Evercore ISI分析师Amit Daryanani深入探讨了苹果在广告领域不断增长的机会，他喜欢自己的发现。Daryanani认为，到2025年9月财年，苹果的广告业务可能会从2020财年的估计20亿美元增长到200亿美元，其中大部分来自App Store广告。</blockquote></p><p> He notes that the projected growth would be similar to that of&nbsp;Amazon’s(AMZN) ad business, which has expanded to about $20 billion from about $3 billion over a four-year span. Daryanani asserts that ads could account for as much as 9% of Apple’s earnings per share in fiscal 2025 if the business hits his target.</p><p><blockquote>他指出，预计的增长将与亚马逊(AMZN)广告业务的增长类似，该业务在四年内已从约30亿美元扩大到约200亿美元。Daryanani声称，如果业务达到他的目标，ads可能占苹果2025财年每股收益的9%。</blockquote></p><p> “Apple’s advertising business remains an underappreciated lever for upside as we go forward and provides them with a unique way to ensure consumer privacy is upheld, but also further enhance the monetization mechanisms,” Daryanani writes in a research note.</p><p><blockquote>达里亚纳尼在一份研究报告中写道：“随着我们的前进，苹果的广告业务仍然是一个未被充分重视的上升杠杆，并为他们提供了一种独特的方式来确保消费者隐私得到维护，同时也进一步增强了货币化机制。”</blockquote></p><p> Under Apple’s “App Tracking Transparency” program, apps must ask for permission before tracking user activity across other companies’ apps and websites. The program has been positioned as a privacy measure, but has the secondary effect of shifting more ad dollars to Apple’s own advertising platform.</p><p><blockquote>根据苹果的“应用程序跟踪透明度”计划，应用程序在跟踪其他公司应用程序和网站的用户活动之前必须获得许可。该计划被定位为隐私措施，但具有将更多广告收入转移到苹果自己的广告平台的次要效果。</blockquote></p><p> Daryanani sees the biggest opportunity in shifting the App Store ad platform to content discovery, not just content delivery — ads offer a way for app developers to attract customers, in the same way that Amazon ads help sellers cut through the clutter to lure shoppers. And he sees additional advertising opportunities in Apple Maps and Apple TV+, among other places.</p><p><blockquote>Daryanani认为最大的机会是将App Store广告平台转向内容发现，而不仅仅是内容交付——广告为应用开发者提供了一种吸引客户的方式，就像亚马逊广告帮助卖家减少混乱以吸引购物者一样。他在苹果地图和苹果TV+等地方看到了更多的广告机会。</blockquote></p><p> “Advertising is a great growth opportunity for Apple and their tremendous installed base gives them a competitive advantage that they have not effectively exploited in the past,” he adds. “Recent actions indicate this is set to change as Apple looks to capture its fair share of a $1 trillion market.”</p><p><blockquote>“广告对苹果来说是一个巨大的增长机会，他们庞大的安装基础为他们提供了过去没有有效利用的竞争优势，”他补充道。“最近的行动表明，随着苹果希望在1万亿美元的市场中占据公平份额，这种情况将会改变。”</blockquote></p><p> Daryanani is not the only analyst that sees potential expansion in the Apple ad business. Earlier this month,Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi wrote a long research note on the same topic; his conclusion was that ads could be a $7 billion to $10 billion business for Apple in fiscal 2023 or 2024. He noted that growth drivers for the Apple ad business include the June addition of search ads in China, higher ad loads, and the introduction of banner ads to the App Store in May. Sacconaghi also pointed out that Apple generates very modest revenue today — likely under $500 million a year — from ads in the Apple News and Stocks apps. Daryanani echoed all of those points in his report.</p><p><blockquote>Daryanani并不是唯一一位看到苹果广告业务潜在扩张的分析师。本月早些时候，伯恩斯坦分析师托尼·萨科纳吉（Toni Sacconaghi）就同一主题撰写了一篇长篇研究报告；他的结论是，在2023或2024财年，广告可能成为苹果70亿至100亿美元的业务。他指出，苹果广告业务的增长动力包括6月份在中国增加的搜索广告、更高的广告负载以及5月份在App Store引入横幅广告。萨科纳吉还指出，苹果目前从苹果新闻和股票应用程序中的广告中产生的收入非常有限，每年可能不到5亿美元。Daryanani在他的报告中呼应了所有这些观点。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, in a new note on Wednesday, Sacconaghi turns his attention to Apple’s search relationship with Google, a unit of&nbsp;Alphabet(GOOGL). Google pays Apple a substantial annual fee to be the default search engine on the iPhone — a relationship that has drawn the attention of the Justice Department, which last year filed suit against Google for monopolizing its control of the search market,specifically citing the Apple deal in the complaint.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，在周三的一份新报告中，萨科纳吉将注意力转向了苹果与Alphabet（GOOGL）旗下谷歌的搜索关系。谷歌向苹果支付了一大笔年费，成为iPhone的默认搜索引擎——这种关系引起了司法部的注意，司法部去年起诉谷歌垄断了搜索市场的控制权，特别是在诉状中引用了苹果的交易。</blockquote></p><p> Neither Apple nor Google has been transparent about the terms of their relationship. Sacconaghi this morning writes that he now thinks Google’s payments to Apple in fiscal 2020 were $10 billion, higher than his previous estimate of $8 billion. And he thinks the payment could jump to $15 billion in fiscal 2021, driving up Apple’s services revenue, and contributing an estimated 9% of Apple’s overall gross profits. He estimates that 39% of Google’s traffic acquisition costs this year will go to Apple, up from an estimated 13% in 2013.</p><p><blockquote>苹果和谷歌都没有公开他们的关系条款。萨科纳吉今天早上写道，他现在认为谷歌在2020财年向苹果支付的款项为100亿美元，高于他之前估计的80亿美元。他认为，到2021财年，这笔付款可能会跃升至150亿美元，从而推高苹果的服务收入，并贡献苹果整体毛利润的约9%。他估计，谷歌今年39%的流量获取成本将流向苹果，高于2013年估计的13%。</blockquote></p><p> Search is really the largest advertising pool for Apple. Sacconaghi estimates that Apple’s overall revenue from advertising in fiscal 2020 was $12.4 billion – and that $10 billion of that came from the company’s search relationship with Google.</p><p><blockquote>搜索确实是苹果最大的广告池。Sacconaghi估计，苹果2020财年的广告总收入为124亿美元，其中100亿美元来自该公司与谷歌的搜索关系。</blockquote></p><p> Sacconaghi sees some risk in Apple’s growing connection with Google. For one thing, there is regulatory focus on the situation – although he thinks any conclusion of the Justice Department lawsuit is “years away,” he sees a potential 4% to 5% risk to Apple’s profits from an adverse ruling. He also thinks there is some risk that Google could choose to stop paying Apple, or look to renegotiate the terms of its deal and pay less.</p><p><blockquote>萨科纳吉认为苹果与谷歌日益增长的联系存在一些风险。一方面，监管机构正在关注这种情况——尽管他认为司法部诉讼的任何结论“还需要数年时间”，但他认为不利裁决可能会给苹果的利润带来4%至5%的潜在风险。他还认为，谷歌可能会选择停止向苹果付款，或者寻求重新谈判交易条款并减少付款，这存在一定的风险。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Sacconaghi says Google pays up for the deal in part to ensure&nbsp;Microsoft(MSFT) — the only real rival for Google in search — does not outbid it. But he also says that with payments to Apple likely to approach $20 billion in fiscal 2022, “it is not implausible that Google could revisit its strategy.”</p><p><blockquote>萨科纳吉表示，谷歌支付这笔交易的部分原因是为了确保微软（MSFT）——谷歌在搜索领域唯一真正的竞争对手——的出价不会高于它。但他也表示，由于2022财年向苹果支付的款项可能接近200亿美元，“谷歌重新审视其战略并非不可能。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apples-secret-weapons-advertising-search-51629906248?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apples-secret-weapons-advertising-search-51629906248?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1125030506","content_text":"For Apple investors, the focus over the next few weeks is going to be the next generation iPhone, likely to be introduced sometime next month. But the company has other levers to drive growth, and not all of them involve hardware.\nIn particular,Apple(ticker: AAPL) has a substantial and growing opportunity in advertising and search revenue. A pair of research notes from the Street on Wednesday highlight how both areas should provide a material boost to top-line growth in the months and years ahead — while also noting a few associated risks.\nIn a new report, Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani dove into Apple’s growing opportunity in advertising, and he likes what he found. Daryanani thinks Apple’s ad business can grow to $20 billion in the September 2025 fiscal year, from an estimated $2 billion in fiscal 2020, most of that from App Store ads.\nHe notes that the projected growth would be similar to that of Amazon’s(AMZN) ad business, which has expanded to about $20 billion from about $3 billion over a four-year span. Daryanani asserts that ads could account for as much as 9% of Apple’s earnings per share in fiscal 2025 if the business hits his target.\n“Apple’s advertising business remains an underappreciated lever for upside as we go forward and provides them with a unique way to ensure consumer privacy is upheld, but also further enhance the monetization mechanisms,” Daryanani writes in a research note.\nUnder Apple’s “App Tracking Transparency” program, apps must ask for permission before tracking user activity across other companies’ apps and websites. The program has been positioned as a privacy measure, but has the secondary effect of shifting more ad dollars to Apple’s own advertising platform.\nDaryanani sees the biggest opportunity in shifting the App Store ad platform to content discovery, not just content delivery — ads offer a way for app developers to attract customers, in the same way that Amazon ads help sellers cut through the clutter to lure shoppers. And he sees additional advertising opportunities in Apple Maps and Apple TV+, among other places.\n“Advertising is a great growth opportunity for Apple and their tremendous installed base gives them a competitive advantage that they have not effectively exploited in the past,” he adds. “Recent actions indicate this is set to change as Apple looks to capture its fair share of a $1 trillion market.”\nDaryanani is not the only analyst that sees potential expansion in the Apple ad business. Earlier this month,Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi wrote a long research note on the same topic; his conclusion was that ads could be a $7 billion to $10 billion business for Apple in fiscal 2023 or 2024. He noted that growth drivers for the Apple ad business include the June addition of search ads in China, higher ad loads, and the introduction of banner ads to the App Store in May. Sacconaghi also pointed out that Apple generates very modest revenue today — likely under $500 million a year — from ads in the Apple News and Stocks apps. Daryanani echoed all of those points in his report.\nMeanwhile, in a new note on Wednesday, Sacconaghi turns his attention to Apple’s search relationship with Google, a unit of Alphabet(GOOGL). Google pays Apple a substantial annual fee to be the default search engine on the iPhone — a relationship that has drawn the attention of the Justice Department, which last year filed suit against Google for monopolizing its control of the search market,specifically citing the Apple deal in the complaint.\nNeither Apple nor Google has been transparent about the terms of their relationship. Sacconaghi this morning writes that he now thinks Google’s payments to Apple in fiscal 2020 were $10 billion, higher than his previous estimate of $8 billion. And he thinks the payment could jump to $15 billion in fiscal 2021, driving up Apple’s services revenue, and contributing an estimated 9% of Apple’s overall gross profits. He estimates that 39% of Google’s traffic acquisition costs this year will go to Apple, up from an estimated 13% in 2013.\nSearch is really the largest advertising pool for Apple. Sacconaghi estimates that Apple’s overall revenue from advertising in fiscal 2020 was $12.4 billion – and that $10 billion of that came from the company’s search relationship with Google.\nSacconaghi sees some risk in Apple’s growing connection with Google. For one thing, there is regulatory focus on the situation – although he thinks any conclusion of the Justice Department lawsuit is “years away,” he sees a potential 4% to 5% risk to Apple’s profits from an adverse ruling. He also thinks there is some risk that Google could choose to stop paying Apple, or look to renegotiate the terms of its deal and pay less.\nSacconaghi says Google pays up for the deal in part to ensure Microsoft(MSFT) — the only real rival for Google in search — does not outbid it. But he also says that with payments to Apple likely to approach $20 billion in fiscal 2022, “it is not implausible that Google could revisit its strategy.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":959,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":833100524,"gmtCreate":1629208583568,"gmtModify":1631889101769,"author":{"id":"3583650394724849","authorId":"3583650394724849","name":"ThECROW","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583650394724849","idStr":"3583650394724849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[比心]&nbsp;","listText":"[比心]&nbsp;","text":"[比心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/833100524","repostId":"2159022385","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":918,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":839015848,"gmtCreate":1629106532484,"gmtModify":1631889101773,"author":{"id":"3583650394724849","authorId":"3583650394724849","name":"ThECROW","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583650394724849","idStr":"3583650394724849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[强]&nbsp;","listText":"[强]&nbsp;","text":"[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/839015848","repostId":"1100841503","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":744,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":894384550,"gmtCreate":1628805373570,"gmtModify":1631889101778,"author":{"id":"3583650394724849","authorId":"3583650394724849","name":"ThECROW","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583650394724849","idStr":"3583650394724849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/894384550","repostId":"1162909242","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":996,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":890779448,"gmtCreate":1628137894784,"gmtModify":1631892494861,"author":{"id":"3583650394724849","authorId":"3583650394724849","name":"ThECROW","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583650394724849","idStr":"3583650394724849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[比心]&nbsp;","listText":"[比心]&nbsp;","text":"[比心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/890779448","repostId":"1169931259","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":863,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":807136275,"gmtCreate":1628004796497,"gmtModify":1631892494867,"author":{"id":"3583650394724849","authorId":"3583650394724849","name":"ThECROW","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583650394724849","idStr":"3583650394724849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊吓]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊吓]&nbsp;","text":"[惊吓]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/807136275","repostId":"1145562808","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145562808","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628000397,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1145562808?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-03 22:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fed Could Start ‘Tapering’ Soon. Don’t Expect It to Cause Havoc for the Stock Market This Time Around.<blockquote>美联储可能很快就会开始“缩减”。不要指望这次会对股市造成严重破坏。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145562808","media":"Barron's","summary":"The Federal Reserve is poised to reduce the size of its bond-buying program, so stocks could head lo","content":"<p>The Federal Reserve is poised to reduce the size of its bond-buying program, so stocks could head lower soon. The pain may not be acute, though, because investors generally expect the Fed to do just that.</p><p><blockquote>美联储准备缩减债券购买计划的规模，因此股市可能很快就会走低。不过，痛苦可能并不严重，因为投资者普遍预计美联储会这么做。</blockquote></p><p> It was a different scenario in May 2013, when Ben Bernanke, the Fed’s chief at the time, told Congress that if economic conditions kept improving, and policy makers were confident that would continue, the bank could pare back its buying. Bond yields leapt, and the S&amp;P 500 fell 5% in a five-day stretch in an episode known&nbsp;as the Taper Tantrum.</p><p><blockquote>2013年5月的情况有所不同，当时美联储主席本·伯南克(Ben Bernanke)告诉国会，如果经济状况持续改善，并且政策制定者有信心这种情况会持续下去，美联储可能会削减购买量。债券收益率飙升，标普500在五天内下跌5%，这一事件被称为“缩减恐慌”。</blockquote></p><p> As bond yields rose, stocks became relatively less attractive, especially because the bank was signaling it would provide less support to markets and the economy. The Fed ultimately announced a reduction of its buying in December that year.</p><p><blockquote>随着债券收益率上升，股票的吸引力相对下降，特别是因为央行表示将减少对市场和经济的支持。美联储最终在当年12月宣布减少购买。</blockquote></p><p> This time, investors are already expecting the Fed to taper. The central bank has telegraphed the change in monetary policy on several occasions. Government- bond dealers expect the Fed’s monthly bond purchases, part of its effort to prop up the economy as the pandemic struck, to fall from $120 billion currently to zero by the start of 2023, according to a Goldman Sachs survey.</p><p><blockquote>这一次，投资者已经在预期美联储会缩减规模。央行已经多次发出货币政策变化的信号。高盛(Goldman Sachs)的一项调查显示，政府债券交易商预计，到2023年初，美联储每月的债券购买量将从目前的1200亿美元降至零，这是其在疫情爆发时支撑经济的努力的一部分。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks are already valued in a way that makes higher bond yields seem plausible. The S&amp;P 500’s equity-risk premium—the percentage return from earnings and dividends for the average stock on the index, minus the yield on 10-year Treasury debt, is currently at about 6 percentage points, according to Goldman Sachs. The number represents the extra return relative to safe bonds that investors demand for being in equities.</p><p><blockquote>股票的估值已经使得更高的债券收益率似乎是合理的。根据高盛的数据，标普500的股票风险溢价——该指数中平均股票的收益和股息回报率减去10年期国债收益率的百分比，目前约为6个百分点。该数字代表了投资者投资股票所需的相对于安全债券的额外回报。</blockquote></p><p> The figure is higher than the sub 6% levels often seen since 2010, implying that even if bond yields move higher, narrowing the equity-risk premium, stocks would still offer relatively strong returns in historical terms. “Market participants appear aware of tapering,” writes David Kostin, chief U.S. equity strategist at Goldman Sachs. “The equity risk premium remains high versus history.”</p><p><blockquote>这一数字高于2010年以来经常出现的低于6%的水平，这意味着即使债券收益率走高，缩小股票风险溢价，从历史角度来看，股票仍将提供相对强劲的回报。高盛首席美国股票策略师David Kostin写道：“市场参与者似乎意识到了缩减购债规模。”“与历史相比，股票风险溢价仍然很高。”</blockquote></p><p> Others agree that markets are pricing in tapering by the Fed. “An orderly and transparent removal of easy monetary policy should not be disruptive, particularly if it’s undertaken in reaction to improvements in the underlying economy, “ wrote Jason Pride, chief investment officer for private wealth at Glenmede.</p><p><blockquote>其他人同意市场正在消化美联储的缩减规模。Glenmede私人财富首席投资官贾森·普莱德(Jason Pride)写道：“有序、透明地取消宽松货币政策不应具有破坏性，特别是如果它是为了应对基础经济的改善而采取的。”</blockquote></p><p> At the very least, investors should monitor how much money the Fed pulls out from the bond market and how quickly it does so. A sharp selloff in response to the simple news that the Fed is tapering is far from certain.</p><p><blockquote>至少，投资者应该监控美联储从债券市场撤出多少资金以及撤出的速度。美联储正在缩减购债规模这一简单消息引发的大幅抛售还远未确定。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed Could Start ‘Tapering’ Soon. Don’t Expect It to Cause Havoc for the Stock Market This Time Around.<blockquote>美联储可能很快就会开始“缩减”。不要指望这次会对股市造成严重破坏。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed Could Start ‘Tapering’ Soon. Don’t Expect It to Cause Havoc for the Stock Market This Time Around.<blockquote>美联储可能很快就会开始“缩减”。不要指望这次会对股市造成严重破坏。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-03 22:19</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The Federal Reserve is poised to reduce the size of its bond-buying program, so stocks could head lower soon. The pain may not be acute, though, because investors generally expect the Fed to do just that.</p><p><blockquote>美联储准备缩减债券购买计划的规模，因此股市可能很快就会走低。不过，痛苦可能并不严重，因为投资者普遍预计美联储会这么做。</blockquote></p><p> It was a different scenario in May 2013, when Ben Bernanke, the Fed’s chief at the time, told Congress that if economic conditions kept improving, and policy makers were confident that would continue, the bank could pare back its buying. Bond yields leapt, and the S&amp;P 500 fell 5% in a five-day stretch in an episode known&nbsp;as the Taper Tantrum.</p><p><blockquote>2013年5月的情况有所不同，当时美联储主席本·伯南克(Ben Bernanke)告诉国会，如果经济状况持续改善，并且政策制定者有信心这种情况会持续下去，美联储可能会削减购买量。债券收益率飙升，标普500在五天内下跌5%，这一事件被称为“缩减恐慌”。</blockquote></p><p> As bond yields rose, stocks became relatively less attractive, especially because the bank was signaling it would provide less support to markets and the economy. The Fed ultimately announced a reduction of its buying in December that year.</p><p><blockquote>随着债券收益率上升，股票的吸引力相对下降，特别是因为央行表示将减少对市场和经济的支持。美联储最终在当年12月宣布减少购买。</blockquote></p><p> This time, investors are already expecting the Fed to taper. The central bank has telegraphed the change in monetary policy on several occasions. Government- bond dealers expect the Fed’s monthly bond purchases, part of its effort to prop up the economy as the pandemic struck, to fall from $120 billion currently to zero by the start of 2023, according to a Goldman Sachs survey.</p><p><blockquote>这一次，投资者已经在预期美联储会缩减规模。央行已经多次发出货币政策变化的信号。高盛(Goldman Sachs)的一项调查显示，政府债券交易商预计，到2023年初，美联储每月的债券购买量将从目前的1200亿美元降至零，这是其在疫情爆发时支撑经济的努力的一部分。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks are already valued in a way that makes higher bond yields seem plausible. The S&amp;P 500’s equity-risk premium—the percentage return from earnings and dividends for the average stock on the index, minus the yield on 10-year Treasury debt, is currently at about 6 percentage points, according to Goldman Sachs. The number represents the extra return relative to safe bonds that investors demand for being in equities.</p><p><blockquote>股票的估值已经使得更高的债券收益率似乎是合理的。根据高盛的数据，标普500的股票风险溢价——该指数中平均股票的收益和股息回报率减去10年期国债收益率的百分比，目前约为6个百分点。该数字代表了投资者投资股票所需的相对于安全债券的额外回报。</blockquote></p><p> The figure is higher than the sub 6% levels often seen since 2010, implying that even if bond yields move higher, narrowing the equity-risk premium, stocks would still offer relatively strong returns in historical terms. “Market participants appear aware of tapering,” writes David Kostin, chief U.S. equity strategist at Goldman Sachs. “The equity risk premium remains high versus history.”</p><p><blockquote>这一数字高于2010年以来经常出现的低于6%的水平，这意味着即使债券收益率走高，缩小股票风险溢价，从历史角度来看，股票仍将提供相对强劲的回报。高盛首席美国股票策略师David Kostin写道：“市场参与者似乎意识到了缩减购债规模。”“与历史相比，股票风险溢价仍然很高。”</blockquote></p><p> Others agree that markets are pricing in tapering by the Fed. “An orderly and transparent removal of easy monetary policy should not be disruptive, particularly if it’s undertaken in reaction to improvements in the underlying economy, “ wrote Jason Pride, chief investment officer for private wealth at Glenmede.</p><p><blockquote>其他人同意市场正在消化美联储的缩减规模。Glenmede私人财富首席投资官贾森·普莱德(Jason Pride)写道：“有序、透明地取消宽松货币政策不应具有破坏性，特别是如果它是为了应对基础经济的改善而采取的。”</blockquote></p><p> At the very least, investors should monitor how much money the Fed pulls out from the bond market and how quickly it does so. A sharp selloff in response to the simple news that the Fed is tapering is far from certain.</p><p><blockquote>至少，投资者应该监控美联储从债券市场撤出多少资金以及撤出的速度。美联储正在缩减购债规模这一简单消息引发的大幅抛售还远未确定。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/federal-reserve-stocks-tapering-51627939038?mod=hp_LEAD_2_B_1\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/federal-reserve-stocks-tapering-51627939038?mod=hp_LEAD_2_B_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145562808","content_text":"The Federal Reserve is poised to reduce the size of its bond-buying program, so stocks could head lower soon. The pain may not be acute, though, because investors generally expect the Fed to do just that.\nIt was a different scenario in May 2013, when Ben Bernanke, the Fed’s chief at the time, told Congress that if economic conditions kept improving, and policy makers were confident that would continue, the bank could pare back its buying. Bond yields leapt, and the S&P 500 fell 5% in a five-day stretch in an episode known as the Taper Tantrum.\nAs bond yields rose, stocks became relatively less attractive, especially because the bank was signaling it would provide less support to markets and the economy. The Fed ultimately announced a reduction of its buying in December that year.\nThis time, investors are already expecting the Fed to taper. The central bank has telegraphed the change in monetary policy on several occasions. Government- bond dealers expect the Fed’s monthly bond purchases, part of its effort to prop up the economy as the pandemic struck, to fall from $120 billion currently to zero by the start of 2023, according to a Goldman Sachs survey.\nStocks are already valued in a way that makes higher bond yields seem plausible. The S&P 500’s equity-risk premium—the percentage return from earnings and dividends for the average stock on the index, minus the yield on 10-year Treasury debt, is currently at about 6 percentage points, according to Goldman Sachs. The number represents the extra return relative to safe bonds that investors demand for being in equities.\nThe figure is higher than the sub 6% levels often seen since 2010, implying that even if bond yields move higher, narrowing the equity-risk premium, stocks would still offer relatively strong returns in historical terms. “Market participants appear aware of tapering,” writes David Kostin, chief U.S. equity strategist at Goldman Sachs. “The equity risk premium remains high versus history.”\nOthers agree that markets are pricing in tapering by the Fed. “An orderly and transparent removal of easy monetary policy should not be disruptive, particularly if it’s undertaken in reaction to improvements in the underlying economy, “ wrote Jason Pride, chief investment officer for private wealth at Glenmede.\nAt the very least, investors should monitor how much money the Fed pulls out from the bond market and how quickly it does so. A sharp selloff in response to the simple news that the Fed is tapering is far from certain.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":701,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":174311240,"gmtCreate":1627077452880,"gmtModify":1631892494881,"author":{"id":"3583650394724849","authorId":"3583650394724849","name":"ThECROW","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583650394724849","idStr":"3583650394724849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/174311240","repostId":"2153983997","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":482,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":833100524,"gmtCreate":1629208583568,"gmtModify":1631889101769,"author":{"id":"3583650394724849","authorId":"3583650394724849","name":"ThECROW","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583650394724849","idStr":"3583650394724849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[比心]&nbsp;","listText":"[比心]&nbsp;","text":"[比心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/833100524","repostId":"2159022385","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":918,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":176283626,"gmtCreate":1626887752065,"gmtModify":1631892494887,"author":{"id":"3583650394724849","authorId":"3583650394724849","name":"ThECROW","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583650394724849","idStr":"3583650394724849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/176283626","repostId":"1107219983","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":341,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":802750820,"gmtCreate":1627811718160,"gmtModify":1631892494878,"author":{"id":"3583650394724849","authorId":"3583650394724849","name":"ThECROW","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583650394724849","idStr":"3583650394724849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[强]&nbsp;","listText":"[强]&nbsp;","text":"[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/802750820","repostId":"1141267906","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":523,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":177067725,"gmtCreate":1627170351867,"gmtModify":1631892494877,"author":{"id":"3583650394724849","authorId":"3583650394724849","name":"ThECROW","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583650394724849","idStr":"3583650394724849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"EV is the mode of transport in the future","listText":"EV is the mode of transport in the future","text":"EV is the mode of transport in the future","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177067725","repostId":"1112927800","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112927800","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627089375,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1112927800?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-24 09:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112927800","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV p","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.</li>  <li>NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.</li>  <li>NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f749c70c8a2af3e18d5f6cecc72bfbb\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>ipopba/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>让我们来看看今天的蔚来与特斯拉相比如何，蔚来的独特卖点，以及两家公司的相似之处。</li><li>蔚来是一个高增长的选择，相对于特斯拉的估值，它似乎并不太昂贵。</li><li>然而，蔚来并不是一只低风险股票，它可能并不是每个人的好选择。投资者还应该考虑蔚来与传统汽车公司的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ipopba/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来公司（蔚来）是中国领先的电动汽车制造商之一，通过其有吸引力的品牌和独特的BaaS产品吸引了消费者和投资者的极大兴趣。然而，如今，该公司仍然比目前引领全球电动汽车市场的特斯拉（TSLA）小得多。蔚来目前专注于国内市场，当特斯拉还是一家较小的公司时也是如此，但蔚来也将试图在海外市场抢占市场份额。股价已经反映了很大的增长，但如果蔚来能够复制特斯拉的成功，这可能是非常合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO And TSLA Stock Prices</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，两家公司都受益于人们对电动汽车日益增长的兴趣，这一趋势导致大多数纯电动汽车公司的股价迅速上涨。电动汽车市场份额不断增长、电动汽车购买补贴等宽松政策以及大规模货币刺激措施相结合，让蔚来和特斯拉的股价迅速上涨。蔚来去年上涨了245%，而特斯拉同期上涨了101%。然而，两家公司目前的交易价格均低于2021年初创下的历史高点，随后纯电动汽车的市场情绪在一定程度上降温。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ff5ce865807df85283775d2293b41af\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Taking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.</p><p><blockquote>快速浏览一下分析师的目标价，我们发现特斯拉的交易价格几乎完全符合共识，而蔚来的交易价格比分析师目标低约30%。如果分析师界是正确的，那么蔚来是一项更好的投资，因为预计特斯拉的股价明年不会大幅上涨，而蔚来的股价较分析师目标价有显着上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO Similar To Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉相似吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你关注的是什么。两家公司有相似之处，但也有不同之处。因此，人们可以说，在某些方面，两者是相似的，但在另一些方面，它们不是。让我们看几件事：</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都专注于电动汽车领域，尽管特斯拉多年来也在发展其他一些业务，例如储能。特斯拉的大部分收入来自销售电动汽车，这也是蔚来的运营方式。两家公司都专注于电动汽车的高端市场，销售价格较高的汽车，与宝马、梅赛德斯和雷克萨斯等品牌竞争。两家公司都提供少量不同的车辆，特斯拉是著名的S、X、3和Y，而蔚来则提供一款轿车(ET7)和三款SUV(EC6、ES6、ES8)。尽管蔚来如今是一家规模较小的公司，但两家公司的车型阵容并没有太大差异。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都向客户提供某种类型的充电基础设施，就特斯拉而言，这就是Supercharger网络，特斯拉车主可以根据安装的Supercharger版本为汽车充电高达250kW。蔚来正在采取不同的方法，为客户提供电池即服务解决方案。蔚来车主可以在蔚来的充电站将电池更换为充满电的电池，这一过程需要几分钟，因此与特斯拉和其他电动汽车厂商提供的常规电动汽车充电相比要快得多。因此，BaaS在充电/交换所需时间方面具有优势，但应该指出的是，与蔚来的电池交换站相比，特斯拉的超级充电站在世界各地更为常见。在其他市场推出该功能将需要大量资本支出，但与包括特斯拉在内的所有其他电动汽车厂商相比，蔚来的产品是一个独特的卖点。这最终是否会得到回报还有待观察，但随着电动汽车领域的竞争加剧，这可能成为蔚来的一大优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Size, growth, and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模、增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.</p><p><blockquote>这两家公司的规模差异很大，无论是在收入和汽车销量方面，还是在两家公司的市值方面。蔚来第二季度交付了22,000辆汽车，同比增长112%，年增长率约为90,000辆。与此同时，特斯拉在第二季度交付了201,000辆汽车，高于2020年第二季度的103,000辆汽车。这是一个强劲的同比增长，尽管略低于100%，因此低于蔚来目前的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:</p><p><blockquote>与蔚来相比，特斯拉每季度交付的汽车数量约为9倍，当我们查看两家公司的市值时，我们发现这一比例几乎完全相同，因为特斯拉6400亿美元的市值约为9倍。蔚来的市值为720亿美元。在类似的增长率下，这是完全有道理的，但目前看来蔚来可能是更好的交易，因为它的估值相当，同时产生更好的增长。在未来几个季度尤其如此，预计特斯拉的增长将放缓：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a986ea65130206f99961a46ce6cfed55\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的收入预计将从2021年的490亿美元增长到2023年的830亿美元，年增长率为30%。与此同时，蔚来的收入预计将在2021年至2023年间从54亿美元猛增至128亿美元，年增长率为54%。因此，相对而言，预计未来两年蔚来的增长速度将远远快于特斯拉。老实说，这并不奇怪，因为大数定律表明，对于一家规模越大的公司来说，保持大幅增长率就变得越来越困难，而特斯拉现在似乎已经达到了这一点——每年增加50%以上的收入将永远不可能。这甚至不一定是特斯拉的错，事实上，许多优质成长型公司都经历过同样的事情。但投资者仍应考虑这一重要事实——与我们过去看到的相比，特斯拉未来几年的增长将不那么令人兴奋，而蔚来等同行的增长速度更快。</blockquote></p><p> The same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).</p><p><blockquote>当我们从长远来看时，情况也是如此。蔚来2025年的收入预期为226亿美元，比2023年的预期再增长80%，比分析师对2021年的预测增长320%。与此同时，特斯拉预计2025年的收入将达到1,225亿美元，这是一个很大的数字，但比2023年增长了48%，比2021年总共增长了150%。因此，在2021年至2025年间，蔚来的收入将增加4倍，而特斯拉的收入将在同一时期增加2.5倍——在其他条件相同的情况下，这是一个有意义的差异，应该允许蔚来获得溢价估值，就像特斯拉一样。与大众汽车（OTCPK：VWAGY）等传统企业相比，它值得获得溢价估值。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.</p><p><blockquote>相对于两家公司目前的估值来看2025年的收入预期，我们发现蔚来的市盈率为2025年销售额的3.2倍，而特斯拉2025年的销售额倍数为5.2倍。因此，对于长期投资者来说，蔚来今天似乎更有价值，因为当我们展望未来时，它的销售倍数要低得多。然而，这并不一定意味着蔚来很便宜，因为与传统汽车公司的估值相比，即使2025年3.2倍的销售倍数也相对较高。然而，蔚来看起来比特斯拉便宜，尽管其股价绝对并不便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来能和特斯拉一样值钱吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly&nbsp;overpriced&nbsp;today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are&nbsp;underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你所关注的时间框架。如今，蔚来的规模明显小于特斯拉，因此其市值也相应地小得多。还应该指出的是，不能保证特斯拉的股票是电动汽车公司应该如何估值的一个很好的例子——至少，它的股票今天有可能被严重高估，我个人也相信这一点（请注意，有些人会认为股票定价过低，这也是一种可能性，尽管我个人并不持有这种信念）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> When we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.</p><p><blockquote>当我们暂时假设特斯拉今天的估值是正确的，并且电动汽车公司每年销售约80万辆汽车时确实应该获得6000亿美元的市值时，那么蔚来最终也可能达到这一目标，尽管不是在近期。蔚来今年将销售约9万辆汽车，2025年这一数字将增长至约40万辆。如果蔚来的销量在此之后每年增长15%，那么到2030年（即9年后），它可能会售出约80万辆汽车。如果想要更快的增长，也可以在2030年之前跨越每年80万辆汽车的界限，例如2028年或2029年。如果我们现在确实选择2030年，那么按照与特斯拉类似的交付量与市值比率，蔚来到2030年的估值可能会超过6000亿美元。换句话说，如果我们假设当前的增长预测是现实的，并且类似特斯拉的估值是合适的，那么九年后蔚来的价值可能会与特斯拉（今天）一样高。当然，这是两个主要的如果，尤其是第二点，我认为还远未确定。我个人不会对特斯拉的估值压缩感到太惊讶，因此蔚来的市值在2030年可能远低于6000亿美元的水平，即使它继续大幅增长。蔚来的增长也有可能令人失望，目前的预测过于乐观，尽管我认为蔚来凭借其独特的BaaS模式和在国内市场特别受认可的强大品牌，处于良好的增长地位。</blockquote></p><p> It should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.</p><p><blockquote>还应该指出的是，特斯拉2030年的市值可能与6000亿美元有很大不同，因此即使蔚来达到这一水平，也不能保证两家公司的市值会相似。到那时，特斯拉的估值可能会高得多，例如如果方舟模型是正确的（我个人认为不太可能）。为了回答上述问题，人们可以说，蔚来可能在8-10年内像特斯拉一样价值数千亿美元，但这根本不能保证。即使这种情况发生，到那时特斯拉的价值也可能会高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来现在是买入或卖出的好股票吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> When considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.</p><p><blockquote>当将蔚来视为一项投资时，它最终是否会变得像特斯拉一样庞大或估值很高并不重要。相反，投资者应该问自己，未来几年他们可以预期的总回报是多少，以及相对于蔚来商业模式的风险，这些预期回报是否足够高。关于这些风险，应该提到的事实是，该公司尚未盈利，这意味着蔚来依赖其资产负债表上的现金进行增长投资。最重要的是，电动汽车领域的竞争正在加剧，市场份额之争可能会在未来几年给利润率带来压力，尽管蔚来似乎由于其电池交换而处于相对有利的地位，我认为这是一个强大的USP。最后但并非最不重要的是，该公司对中国本土市场的依赖是一个应该牢记的潜在风险，尽管还应该指出的是，目前中国政府似乎对中国电动汽车公司非常包容。</blockquote></p><p> One could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.</p><p><blockquote>有人可能会说，相对于传统汽车公司的估值，整个电动汽车行业的估值过高。与纯电动汽车相比，即使是大众汽车或福特等拥有有吸引力的电动汽车产品的传统企业，其交易也有巨大的折扣。但如果你想投资纯电动汽车，蔚来似乎是一个不错的选择。该公司结合了强大的品牌、独特的BaaS产品、高增长率，并且与电动汽车之王特斯拉的估值相比，股票交易价格有折扣。与其他纯电动汽车公司相比，蔚来2025年收入略高于3倍，似乎并不算太贵，当然，与传统公司相比，这仍然代表着溢价。如果蔚来能够表现良好并继续推出深受消费者欢迎的新车型，从长远来看，其股价可能具有巨大的上涨潜力。如果电动汽车股票成为不受欢迎的投资，蔚来股票也可能有相当大的下跌空间，然而，这并不是一个低风险的选择。根据您的风险承受能力，如果您想要高增长的纯电动汽车，蔚来仍然可能具有价值。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-24 09:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.</li>  <li>NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.</li>  <li>NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f749c70c8a2af3e18d5f6cecc72bfbb\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>ipopba/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>让我们来看看今天的蔚来与特斯拉相比如何，蔚来的独特卖点，以及两家公司的相似之处。</li><li>蔚来是一个高增长的选择，相对于特斯拉的估值，它似乎并不太昂贵。</li><li>然而，蔚来并不是一只低风险股票，它可能并不是每个人的好选择。投资者还应该考虑蔚来与传统汽车公司的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ipopba/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来公司（蔚来）是中国领先的电动汽车制造商之一，通过其有吸引力的品牌和独特的BaaS产品吸引了消费者和投资者的极大兴趣。然而，如今，该公司仍然比目前引领全球电动汽车市场的特斯拉（TSLA）小得多。蔚来目前专注于国内市场，当特斯拉还是一家较小的公司时也是如此，但蔚来也将试图在海外市场抢占市场份额。股价已经反映了很大的增长，但如果蔚来能够复制特斯拉的成功，这可能是非常合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO And TSLA Stock Prices</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，两家公司都受益于人们对电动汽车日益增长的兴趣，这一趋势导致大多数纯电动汽车公司的股价迅速上涨。电动汽车市场份额不断增长、电动汽车购买补贴等宽松政策以及大规模货币刺激措施相结合，让蔚来和特斯拉的股价迅速上涨。蔚来去年上涨了245%，而特斯拉同期上涨了101%。然而，两家公司目前的交易价格均低于2021年初创下的历史高点，随后纯电动汽车的市场情绪在一定程度上降温。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ff5ce865807df85283775d2293b41af\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Taking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.</p><p><blockquote>快速浏览一下分析师的目标价，我们发现特斯拉的交易价格几乎完全符合共识，而蔚来的交易价格比分析师目标低约30%。如果分析师界是正确的，那么蔚来是一项更好的投资，因为预计特斯拉的股价明年不会大幅上涨，而蔚来的股价较分析师目标价有显着上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO Similar To Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉相似吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你关注的是什么。两家公司有相似之处，但也有不同之处。因此，人们可以说，在某些方面，两者是相似的，但在另一些方面，它们不是。让我们看几件事：</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都专注于电动汽车领域，尽管特斯拉多年来也在发展其他一些业务，例如储能。特斯拉的大部分收入来自销售电动汽车，这也是蔚来的运营方式。两家公司都专注于电动汽车的高端市场，销售价格较高的汽车，与宝马、梅赛德斯和雷克萨斯等品牌竞争。两家公司都提供少量不同的车辆，特斯拉是著名的S、X、3和Y，而蔚来则提供一款轿车(ET7)和三款SUV(EC6、ES6、ES8)。尽管蔚来如今是一家规模较小的公司，但两家公司的车型阵容并没有太大差异。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都向客户提供某种类型的充电基础设施，就特斯拉而言，这就是Supercharger网络，特斯拉车主可以根据安装的Supercharger版本为汽车充电高达250kW。蔚来正在采取不同的方法，为客户提供电池即服务解决方案。蔚来车主可以在蔚来的充电站将电池更换为充满电的电池，这一过程需要几分钟，因此与特斯拉和其他电动汽车厂商提供的常规电动汽车充电相比要快得多。因此，BaaS在充电/交换所需时间方面具有优势，但应该指出的是，与蔚来的电池交换站相比，特斯拉的超级充电站在世界各地更为常见。在其他市场推出该功能将需要大量资本支出，但与包括特斯拉在内的所有其他电动汽车厂商相比，蔚来的产品是一个独特的卖点。这最终是否会得到回报还有待观察，但随着电动汽车领域的竞争加剧，这可能成为蔚来的一大优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Size, growth, and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模、增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.</p><p><blockquote>这两家公司的规模差异很大，无论是在收入和汽车销量方面，还是在两家公司的市值方面。蔚来第二季度交付了22,000辆汽车，同比增长112%，年增长率约为90,000辆。与此同时，特斯拉在第二季度交付了201,000辆汽车，高于2020年第二季度的103,000辆汽车。这是一个强劲的同比增长，尽管略低于100%，因此低于蔚来目前的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:</p><p><blockquote>与蔚来相比，特斯拉每季度交付的汽车数量约为9倍，当我们查看两家公司的市值时，我们发现这一比例几乎完全相同，因为特斯拉6400亿美元的市值约为9倍。蔚来的市值为720亿美元。在类似的增长率下，这是完全有道理的，但目前看来蔚来可能是更好的交易，因为它的估值相当，同时产生更好的增长。在未来几个季度尤其如此，预计特斯拉的增长将放缓：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a986ea65130206f99961a46ce6cfed55\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的收入预计将从2021年的490亿美元增长到2023年的830亿美元，年增长率为30%。与此同时，蔚来的收入预计将在2021年至2023年间从54亿美元猛增至128亿美元，年增长率为54%。因此，相对而言，预计未来两年蔚来的增长速度将远远快于特斯拉。老实说，这并不奇怪，因为大数定律表明，对于一家规模越大的公司来说，保持大幅增长率就变得越来越困难，而特斯拉现在似乎已经达到了这一点——每年增加50%以上的收入将永远不可能。这甚至不一定是特斯拉的错，事实上，许多优质成长型公司都经历过同样的事情。但投资者仍应考虑这一重要事实——与我们过去看到的相比，特斯拉未来几年的增长将不那么令人兴奋，而蔚来等同行的增长速度更快。</blockquote></p><p> The same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).</p><p><blockquote>当我们从长远来看时，情况也是如此。蔚来2025年的收入预期为226亿美元，比2023年的预期再增长80%，比分析师对2021年的预测增长320%。与此同时，特斯拉预计2025年的收入将达到1,225亿美元，这是一个很大的数字，但比2023年增长了48%，比2021年总共增长了150%。因此，在2021年至2025年间，蔚来的收入将增加4倍，而特斯拉的收入将在同一时期增加2.5倍——在其他条件相同的情况下，这是一个有意义的差异，应该允许蔚来获得溢价估值，就像特斯拉一样。与大众汽车（OTCPK：VWAGY）等传统企业相比，它值得获得溢价估值。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.</p><p><blockquote>相对于两家公司目前的估值来看2025年的收入预期，我们发现蔚来的市盈率为2025年销售额的3.2倍，而特斯拉2025年的销售额倍数为5.2倍。因此，对于长期投资者来说，蔚来今天似乎更有价值，因为当我们展望未来时，它的销售倍数要低得多。然而，这并不一定意味着蔚来很便宜，因为与传统汽车公司的估值相比，即使2025年3.2倍的销售倍数也相对较高。然而，蔚来看起来比特斯拉便宜，尽管其股价绝对并不便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来能和特斯拉一样值钱吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly&nbsp;overpriced&nbsp;today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are&nbsp;underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你所关注的时间框架。如今，蔚来的规模明显小于特斯拉，因此其市值也相应地小得多。还应该指出的是，不能保证特斯拉的股票是电动汽车公司应该如何估值的一个很好的例子——至少，它的股票今天有可能被严重高估，我个人也相信这一点（请注意，有些人会认为股票定价过低，这也是一种可能性，尽管我个人并不持有这种信念）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> When we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.</p><p><blockquote>当我们暂时假设特斯拉今天的估值是正确的，并且电动汽车公司每年销售约80万辆汽车时确实应该获得6000亿美元的市值时，那么蔚来最终也可能达到这一目标，尽管不是在近期。蔚来今年将销售约9万辆汽车，2025年这一数字将增长至约40万辆。如果蔚来的销量在此之后每年增长15%，那么到2030年（即9年后），它可能会售出约80万辆汽车。如果想要更快的增长，也可以在2030年之前跨越每年80万辆汽车的界限，例如2028年或2029年。如果我们现在确实选择2030年，那么按照与特斯拉类似的交付量与市值比率，蔚来到2030年的估值可能会超过6000亿美元。换句话说，如果我们假设当前的增长预测是现实的，并且类似特斯拉的估值是合适的，那么九年后蔚来的价值可能会与特斯拉（今天）一样高。当然，这是两个主要的如果，尤其是第二点，我认为还远未确定。我个人不会对特斯拉的估值压缩感到太惊讶，因此蔚来的市值在2030年可能远低于6000亿美元的水平，即使它继续大幅增长。蔚来的增长也有可能令人失望，目前的预测过于乐观，尽管我认为蔚来凭借其独特的BaaS模式和在国内市场特别受认可的强大品牌，处于良好的增长地位。</blockquote></p><p> It should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.</p><p><blockquote>还应该指出的是，特斯拉2030年的市值可能与6000亿美元有很大不同，因此即使蔚来达到这一水平，也不能保证两家公司的市值会相似。到那时，特斯拉的估值可能会高得多，例如如果方舟模型是正确的（我个人认为不太可能）。为了回答上述问题，人们可以说，蔚来可能在8-10年内像特斯拉一样价值数千亿美元，但这根本不能保证。即使这种情况发生，到那时特斯拉的价值也可能会高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来现在是买入或卖出的好股票吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> When considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.</p><p><blockquote>当将蔚来视为一项投资时，它最终是否会变得像特斯拉一样庞大或估值很高并不重要。相反，投资者应该问自己，未来几年他们可以预期的总回报是多少，以及相对于蔚来商业模式的风险，这些预期回报是否足够高。关于这些风险，应该提到的事实是，该公司尚未盈利，这意味着蔚来依赖其资产负债表上的现金进行增长投资。最重要的是，电动汽车领域的竞争正在加剧，市场份额之争可能会在未来几年给利润率带来压力，尽管蔚来似乎由于其电池交换而处于相对有利的地位，我认为这是一个强大的USP。最后但并非最不重要的是，该公司对中国本土市场的依赖是一个应该牢记的潜在风险，尽管还应该指出的是，目前中国政府似乎对中国电动汽车公司非常包容。</blockquote></p><p> One could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.</p><p><blockquote>有人可能会说，相对于传统汽车公司的估值，整个电动汽车行业的估值过高。与纯电动汽车相比，即使是大众汽车或福特等拥有有吸引力的电动汽车产品的传统企业，其交易也有巨大的折扣。但如果你想投资纯电动汽车，蔚来似乎是一个不错的选择。该公司结合了强大的品牌、独特的BaaS产品、高增长率，并且与电动汽车之王特斯拉的估值相比，股票交易价格有折扣。与其他纯电动汽车公司相比，蔚来2025年收入略高于3倍，似乎并不算太贵，当然，与传统公司相比，这仍然代表着溢价。如果蔚来能够表现良好并继续推出深受消费者欢迎的新车型，从长远来看，其股价可能具有巨大的上涨潜力。如果电动汽车股票成为不受欢迎的投资，蔚来股票也可能有相当大的下跌空间，然而，这并不是一个低风险的选择。根据您的风险承受能力，如果您想要高增长的纯电动汽车，蔚来仍然可能具有价值。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112927800","content_text":"Summary\n\nLet's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.\nNIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.\nNIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.\n\nipopba/iStock via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nNIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.\nNIO And TSLA Stock Prices\nBoth companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.\nData by YCharts\nTaking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.\nIs NIO Similar To Tesla?\nThe answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:\nBusiness Model\nBoth companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.\nBoth companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.\nSize, growth, and valuation\nThe two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.\nTesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:\nData by YCharts\nTesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.\nThe same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).\nLooking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.\nCan NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?\nThe answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly overpriced today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).\nWhen we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.\nIt should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.\nIs NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?\nWhen considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.\nOne could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":353,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":861276555,"gmtCreate":1632507088777,"gmtModify":1632714651506,"author":{"id":"3583650394724849","authorId":"3583650394724849","name":"ThECROW","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583650394724849","idStr":"3583650394724849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[弱]&nbsp;","listText":"[弱]&nbsp;","text":"[弱]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/861276555","repostId":"1187521937","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2431,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":881114722,"gmtCreate":1631316850766,"gmtModify":1631883964302,"author":{"id":"3583650394724849","authorId":"3583650394724849","name":"ThECROW","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583650394724849","idStr":"3583650394724849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Apple should have been a bigger man.","listText":"Apple should have been a bigger man.","text":"Apple should have been a bigger man.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/881114722","repostId":"2166711943","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1779,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":175339312,"gmtCreate":1627005946436,"gmtModify":1631892494885,"author":{"id":"3583650394724849","authorId":"3583650394724849","name":"ThECROW","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583650394724849","idStr":"3583650394724849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[强]&nbsp;","listText":"[强]&nbsp;","text":"[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/175339312","repostId":"1164478982","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":435,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":862569073,"gmtCreate":1632891004819,"gmtModify":1632891004951,"author":{"id":"3583650394724849","authorId":"3583650394724849","name":"ThECROW","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583650394724849","idStr":"3583650394724849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Actually it is a cycle of moods. Much like mood swings.","listText":"Actually it is a cycle of moods. Much like mood swings.","text":"Actually it is a cycle of moods. Much like mood swings.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862569073","repostId":"1198528044","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198528044","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632882697,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198528044?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-29 10:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Technically Speaking: Is The Market \"Melting-Up?\"<blockquote>从技术上讲：市场正在“融化”吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198528044","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nGiven the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protect","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.</li>  <li>As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.</li>  <li>While it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent “this time is different”.</li> </ul> Is the<i>“market melting-up?”</i>Such was the question I received from my colleague at<i>Cut The Crap Investing.</i>It is an excellent question given the relentless increase in what investors believe is a<i>“no risk”</i>market.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>鉴于美联储正在进行的资产负债表操作，投资者完全相信他们有能力免受经济衰退的影响。</li><li>与往常一样，投资大众相信未来的收益将证明在融化期间价格上涨是合理的。从来都不是那样的。</li><li>虽然在融化持续期间利用它是至关重要的，但不要过于自满“这次不同了”。</li></ul>是<i>“市场融化？”</i>这是我从我的同事那里收到的问题<i>少废话投资。</i>考虑到投资者认为的持续增长，这是一个很好的问题<i>“没有风险”</i>市场。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, we need a definition of precisely what constitutes a melt-up.</p><p><blockquote>当然，我们需要一个准确定义什么是融化。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“A melt-up is a sustained and often unexpected improvement in the investment performance of an asset or asset class, driven partly</i>  <i><b>by a stampede of investors who don’t want to miss out on its rise,</b></i>  <i>rather than by fundamental improvements in the economy.“</i>–  <i>Investopedia</i>  Currently, there is sufficient evidence to support the idea of an exuberant market.<b><i>As noted previously:</i></b></p><p><blockquote><i>他说：“熔断是指一项资产或资产类别的投资表现持续且往往出乎意料的改善，部分原因是</i><i><b>不想错过其上涨机会的投资者蜂拥而至，</b></i><i>而不是经济的根本改善。”</i>–<i>投资百科</i>目前，有足够的证据支持市场繁荣的观点。<b><i>如前所述：</i></b></blockquote></p><p>   <i>“Near peaks of market cycles, investors become swept up by the underlying exuberance. That exuberance breeds the “rationalization” that “this time is different.” So how do you know the market is exuberant currently? Via Sentiment Trader:”</i>    <i>‘This type of market activity is an indication that markets have returned their ‘enthusiasm’ stage. Such is characterized by:’</i>  <ul>  <li><b><i>High optimism</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Easy credit (too easy, with loose terms)</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>A rush of initial and secondary offerings</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Risky stocks outperforming</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Stretched valuations</i></b></li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff8de3a84084162ca86b415584bbf793\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><i>“在市场周期接近峰值时，投资者会被潜在的繁荣所席卷。这种繁荣滋生了“合理化”，即“这次不同了”。那么，你如何知道市场目前是繁荣的呢？通过情绪交易者：”</i><i>这种类型的市场活动表明市场已经回到了“热情”阶段。其特征在于：</i><ul><li><b><i>高度乐观</i></b></li><li><b><i>宽松信贷（太宽松，条款宽松）</i></b></li><li><b><i>首次和二次发行热潮</i></b></li><li><b><i>风险股跑赢大盘</i></b></li><li><b><i>估值过高</i></b></li></ul></blockquote></p><p> However, while one would expect individuals to exhibit caution in such an environment, the opposite is true. Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.</p><p><blockquote>然而，虽然人们会期望个人在这样的环境中表现出谨慎，但事实恰恰相反。鉴于美联储正在进行的资产负债表操作，投资者完全相信他们有能力免受经济衰退的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Visualization Of A Market Melting-Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场融化的可视化</b></blockquote></p><p> It is often easier to visualize something rather than explain it.<b>Since 1900, only two previous market periods qualify as a melt-up: 1920-1929 and 1995-2000.</b>The chart below shows both periods in terms of price.</p><p><blockquote>想象某事通常比解释它更容易。<b>自1900年以来，只有两个市场时期符合熔化的条件：1920-1929年和1995-2000年。</b>下图显示了这两个时期的价格。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a218c7efe2ebd874d05c9ff7dd564436\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f193c9c32d55747bf7ff511c2f9fd53\" tg-width=\"793\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> However, the melt-up is also visually represented by the incredibly sharp rise in valuations. Such is essential because earnings are not rising at a fast enough clip to support higher prices.<b>As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，估值的大幅上涨也直观地体现了这种融化。这一点至关重要，因为盈利增长速度不足以支撑价格上涨。<b>与往常一样，投资大众相信未来的收益将证明在融化期间价格上涨是合理的。从来都不是那样的。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c69e418d5a19d6fd03b305ab111e3be3\" tg-width=\"794\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af03d3bbd071b8edfdf3a19e2c7b0bcd\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We can compare those two previous periods with the current advance from the March 2020 lows. Again, we see a very similar sharp advance in price combined with a surge in valuations. As expected, investors are currently hoping that future earnings will rise sharply enough to justify current prices. However, the justification for paying high prices is the Federal Reserve’s ongoing balance sheet expansion.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以将前两个时期与当前从2020年3月低点的上涨进行比较。我们再次看到非常相似的价格大幅上涨和估值飙升。正如预期的那样，投资者目前希望未来收益将大幅上涨，足以证明当前价格的合理性。然而，支付高价的理由是美联储持续的资产负债表扩张。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3562aea27b24ad4921d0f5cd497e072\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"444\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The following chart looks that the price advance and valuation measures a little differently. It shows the current deviation from the long-term exponential growth trend. Not surprisingly, during a market<i>“melt-up,”</i>there is a rapid deviation from the growth trend matching the acceleration in valuations.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示，价格上涨和估值指标略有不同。它显示了当前与长期指数增长趋势的背离。毫不奇怪，在市场期间<i>“融化。”</i>与估值加速相匹配的增长趋势出现了快速背离。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1419cf4b2afdcdc0f61e0cad862f498d\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The problem with market<i>“melt-ups”</i>is not the melt-up itself but what always follows.</p><p><blockquote>市场的问题<i>“融化”</i>不是融化本身，而是随之而来的一切。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Melting-Up Leads To Melting-Down</b></p><p><blockquote><b>熔化导致熔化</b></blockquote></p><p> A market melting-up is exciting while it lasts. During melt-ups, investors begin to rationalize why<i>“this time is different.”</i>They start taking on excess leverage to try and capitalize on the rapid advance in prices, and fundamentals take a back seat to price momentum.</p><p><blockquote>市场融化持续下去是令人兴奋的。在熔断期间，投资者开始合理化原因<i>“这次不一样。”</i>他们开始过度杠杆，试图利用价格的快速上涨，基本面让位于价格动能。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Market melt-ups are all about<i>“psychology.”</i><b>Historically, whatever has been the catalyst to spark the disregard of risk is readily witnessed in the corresponding surge in price and valuations.</b>The chart below shows the long-term deviations in relative strength, deviations, and valuations. The previous<i>‘melt-up”</i>periods should be easy to spot when compared with the advance currently.</p><p><blockquote>市场融化都是关于<i>“心理学。”</i><b>从历史上看，无论引发忽视风险的催化剂是什么，都很容易在价格和估值的相应飙升中看到。</b>下图显示了相对强度、偏差和估值的长期偏差。上一篇<i>“融化”</i>与目前的进展相比，时期应该很容易发现。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc04cb25c0199dd17475a551a5dd7ec1\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Given that current extensions match only a few rare periods in history, a couple of points should be readily apparent.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于目前的延期仅与历史上少数罕见的时期相匹配，有几点应该是显而易见的。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><b><i>Melt-ups can longer than logic would predict.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>The prevailing psychology is always “this time is different.”</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Valuations are dismissed in exchange for measures of momentum and forward expectations.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Investors take on excess leverage and risk in order to participate in a seemingly “can’t lose” market.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Lastly, and inevitably, “melt-ups” end and always in the worst possible outcomes.</i></b></li> </ol> It is essential to recognize the markets are in a<i>“melt-up,</i>” and the duration of that event is unknowable. Therefore, investors need a strategy to participate in the advance and mitigate the damage from the eventual<i>“melting-down.”</i></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><b><i>融化的时间可能比逻辑预测的要长。</i></b></li><li><b><i>普遍的心理总是“这次不一样了”。</i></b></li><li><b><i>估值被驳回，以换取动量和前瞻性预期的衡量标准。</i></b></li><li><b><i>投资者为了参与一个看似“输不起”的市场，承担了过多的杠杆和风险。</i></b></li><li><b><i>最后，不可避免的是，“融化”以最糟糕的结果告终。</i></b></li></ol>必须认识到市场正处于<i>“融化，</i>“而且该事件的持续时间是未知的。因此，投资者需要一种策略来参与提前并减轻最终的损失<i>“熔化。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Surviving The Melt-Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在融化中幸存下来</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>As noted, none of this means the next</b><b><i>“bear market”</i></b><b>is lurking.</b>Given that a market melting-up is a function of psychology, they can last longer and go further than logic would predict. What is required to “<i>end”</i>a melt-up is an unanticipated exogenous event that changes psychology from bullish to bearish. Such is when the stampede for the exits occurs, and prices decline very quickly.</p><p><blockquote><b>如上所述，这些都不意味着下一个</b><b><i>“熊市”</i></b><b>正在潜伏。</b>鉴于市场融化是心理作用，它们可以持续更长时间，走得比逻辑预测的更远。需要什么“<i>结束“</i>融化是一种意想不到的外生事件，它将心理从看涨转变为看跌。这就是人们蜂拥退出的时候，价格会迅速下跌。</blockquote></p><p> As such, investors need a set of guidelines to participate in the market advance. But, of course, the hard part is keeping those gains when corrections inevitably occur.</p><p><blockquote>因此，投资者需要一套指导方针来参与市场上涨。但是，当然，困难的部分是在不可避免地发生调整时保持这些收益。</blockquote></p><p> As portfolio managers for our clients, such is precisely the approach we must take. Accordingly, I have provided a general overview of the process that we employ.</p><p><blockquote>作为客户的投资组合经理，这正是我们必须采取的方法。因此，我提供了我们采用的流程的总体概述。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><i><b>Tighten up stop-loss levels</b></i><i>to current support levels for each position.(Provides identifiable exit points when the market reverses.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Hedge portfolios</b></i><i>against major market declines.(Non-correlated assets, short-market positions, index put options)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Take profits</b></i><i>in positions that have been big winners(Rebalancing overbought or extended positions to capture gains but continue to participate in the advance.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Sell laggards</b></i><i>and losers</i>.<i>(If something isn’t working in a market melt-up, it most likely won’t work during a broad decline. Better to eliminate the risk early.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Raise cash</b></i><i>and rebalance portfolios to target weightings.(Rebalancing risk on a regular basis keeps hidden risks somewhat mitigated.)</i></li> </ol> <b>Notice, nothing in there says,</b><b><i>“sell everything and go to cash.”</i></b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><i><b>收紧止损水平</b></i><i>每个头寸的当前支撑位。（当市场反转时提供可识别的退出点。）</i></li><li><i><b>对冲投资组合</b></i><i>（非相关资产、空头市场头寸、指数看跌期权）</i></li><li><i><b>获利了结</b></i><i>在已经成为大赢家的头寸中（重新平衡超买或扩展头寸以获取收益，但继续参与上涨。）</i></li><li><i><b>出售落后者</b></i><i>和失败者</i>.<i>（如果某些东西在市场融化时不起作用，那么在广泛下跌时很可能也不会起作用。最好尽早消除风险。）</i></li><li><i><b>筹集现金</b></i><i>并重新平衡投资组合以达到目标权重。（定期重新平衡风险可以在一定程度上减轻隐藏的风险。）</i></li></ol><b>注意，里面没有任何东西说，</b><b><i>“卖掉所有东西，去兑现。”</i></b></blockquote></p><p> There will be a time to raise significant levels of cash. A good portfolio management strategy will automatically ensure that<i>“stop-loss”</i>levels get triggered, exposure decreases, and cash levels rise when the selling begins.</p><p><blockquote>将会有一段时间来筹集大量现金。一个好的投资组合管理策略将自动确保<i>“止损”</i>当出售开始时，水平被触发，风险减少，现金水平上升。</blockquote></p><p> While it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent<i>“this time is different.”</i></p><p><blockquote>虽然有必要在融化持续期间利用它，但不要过于自满<i>“这次不一样。”</i></blockquote></p><p> It likely isn’t.</p><p><blockquote>很可能不是。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Technically Speaking: Is The Market \"Melting-Up?\"<blockquote>从技术上讲：市场正在“融化”吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTechnically Speaking: Is The Market \"Melting-Up?\"<blockquote>从技术上讲：市场正在“融化”吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-29 10:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.</li>  <li>As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.</li>  <li>While it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent “this time is different”.</li> </ul> Is the<i>“market melting-up?”</i>Such was the question I received from my colleague at<i>Cut The Crap Investing.</i>It is an excellent question given the relentless increase in what investors believe is a<i>“no risk”</i>market.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>鉴于美联储正在进行的资产负债表操作，投资者完全相信他们有能力免受经济衰退的影响。</li><li>与往常一样，投资大众相信未来的收益将证明在融化期间价格上涨是合理的。从来都不是那样的。</li><li>虽然在融化持续期间利用它是至关重要的，但不要过于自满“这次不同了”。</li></ul>是<i>“市场融化？”</i>这是我从我的同事那里收到的问题<i>少废话投资。</i>考虑到投资者认为的持续增长，这是一个很好的问题<i>“没有风险”</i>市场。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, we need a definition of precisely what constitutes a melt-up.</p><p><blockquote>当然，我们需要一个准确定义什么是融化。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“A melt-up is a sustained and often unexpected improvement in the investment performance of an asset or asset class, driven partly</i>  <i><b>by a stampede of investors who don’t want to miss out on its rise,</b></i>  <i>rather than by fundamental improvements in the economy.“</i>–  <i>Investopedia</i>  Currently, there is sufficient evidence to support the idea of an exuberant market.<b><i>As noted previously:</i></b></p><p><blockquote><i>他说：“熔断是指一项资产或资产类别的投资表现持续且往往出乎意料的改善，部分原因是</i><i><b>不想错过其上涨机会的投资者蜂拥而至，</b></i><i>而不是经济的根本改善。”</i>–<i>投资百科</i>目前，有足够的证据支持市场繁荣的观点。<b><i>如前所述：</i></b></blockquote></p><p>   <i>“Near peaks of market cycles, investors become swept up by the underlying exuberance. That exuberance breeds the “rationalization” that “this time is different.” So how do you know the market is exuberant currently? Via Sentiment Trader:”</i>    <i>‘This type of market activity is an indication that markets have returned their ‘enthusiasm’ stage. Such is characterized by:’</i>  <ul>  <li><b><i>High optimism</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Easy credit (too easy, with loose terms)</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>A rush of initial and secondary offerings</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Risky stocks outperforming</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Stretched valuations</i></b></li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff8de3a84084162ca86b415584bbf793\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><i>“在市场周期接近峰值时，投资者会被潜在的繁荣所席卷。这种繁荣滋生了“合理化”，即“这次不同了”。那么，你如何知道市场目前是繁荣的呢？通过情绪交易者：”</i><i>这种类型的市场活动表明市场已经回到了“热情”阶段。其特征在于：</i><ul><li><b><i>高度乐观</i></b></li><li><b><i>宽松信贷（太宽松，条款宽松）</i></b></li><li><b><i>首次和二次发行热潮</i></b></li><li><b><i>风险股跑赢大盘</i></b></li><li><b><i>估值过高</i></b></li></ul></blockquote></p><p> However, while one would expect individuals to exhibit caution in such an environment, the opposite is true. Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.</p><p><blockquote>然而，虽然人们会期望个人在这样的环境中表现出谨慎，但事实恰恰相反。鉴于美联储正在进行的资产负债表操作，投资者完全相信他们有能力免受经济衰退的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Visualization Of A Market Melting-Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场融化的可视化</b></blockquote></p><p> It is often easier to visualize something rather than explain it.<b>Since 1900, only two previous market periods qualify as a melt-up: 1920-1929 and 1995-2000.</b>The chart below shows both periods in terms of price.</p><p><blockquote>想象某事通常比解释它更容易。<b>自1900年以来，只有两个市场时期符合熔化的条件：1920-1929年和1995-2000年。</b>下图显示了这两个时期的价格。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a218c7efe2ebd874d05c9ff7dd564436\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f193c9c32d55747bf7ff511c2f9fd53\" tg-width=\"793\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> However, the melt-up is also visually represented by the incredibly sharp rise in valuations. Such is essential because earnings are not rising at a fast enough clip to support higher prices.<b>As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，估值的大幅上涨也直观地体现了这种融化。这一点至关重要，因为盈利增长速度不足以支撑价格上涨。<b>与往常一样，投资大众相信未来的收益将证明在融化期间价格上涨是合理的。从来都不是那样的。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c69e418d5a19d6fd03b305ab111e3be3\" tg-width=\"794\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af03d3bbd071b8edfdf3a19e2c7b0bcd\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We can compare those two previous periods with the current advance from the March 2020 lows. Again, we see a very similar sharp advance in price combined with a surge in valuations. As expected, investors are currently hoping that future earnings will rise sharply enough to justify current prices. However, the justification for paying high prices is the Federal Reserve’s ongoing balance sheet expansion.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以将前两个时期与当前从2020年3月低点的上涨进行比较。我们再次看到非常相似的价格大幅上涨和估值飙升。正如预期的那样，投资者目前希望未来收益将大幅上涨，足以证明当前价格的合理性。然而，支付高价的理由是美联储持续的资产负债表扩张。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3562aea27b24ad4921d0f5cd497e072\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"444\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The following chart looks that the price advance and valuation measures a little differently. It shows the current deviation from the long-term exponential growth trend. Not surprisingly, during a market<i>“melt-up,”</i>there is a rapid deviation from the growth trend matching the acceleration in valuations.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示，价格上涨和估值指标略有不同。它显示了当前与长期指数增长趋势的背离。毫不奇怪，在市场期间<i>“融化。”</i>与估值加速相匹配的增长趋势出现了快速背离。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1419cf4b2afdcdc0f61e0cad862f498d\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The problem with market<i>“melt-ups”</i>is not the melt-up itself but what always follows.</p><p><blockquote>市场的问题<i>“融化”</i>不是融化本身，而是随之而来的一切。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Melting-Up Leads To Melting-Down</b></p><p><blockquote><b>熔化导致熔化</b></blockquote></p><p> A market melting-up is exciting while it lasts. During melt-ups, investors begin to rationalize why<i>“this time is different.”</i>They start taking on excess leverage to try and capitalize on the rapid advance in prices, and fundamentals take a back seat to price momentum.</p><p><blockquote>市场融化持续下去是令人兴奋的。在熔断期间，投资者开始合理化原因<i>“这次不一样。”</i>他们开始过度杠杆，试图利用价格的快速上涨，基本面让位于价格动能。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Market melt-ups are all about<i>“psychology.”</i><b>Historically, whatever has been the catalyst to spark the disregard of risk is readily witnessed in the corresponding surge in price and valuations.</b>The chart below shows the long-term deviations in relative strength, deviations, and valuations. The previous<i>‘melt-up”</i>periods should be easy to spot when compared with the advance currently.</p><p><blockquote>市场融化都是关于<i>“心理学。”</i><b>从历史上看，无论引发忽视风险的催化剂是什么，都很容易在价格和估值的相应飙升中看到。</b>下图显示了相对强度、偏差和估值的长期偏差。上一篇<i>“融化”</i>与目前的进展相比，时期应该很容易发现。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc04cb25c0199dd17475a551a5dd7ec1\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Given that current extensions match only a few rare periods in history, a couple of points should be readily apparent.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于目前的延期仅与历史上少数罕见的时期相匹配，有几点应该是显而易见的。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><b><i>Melt-ups can longer than logic would predict.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>The prevailing psychology is always “this time is different.”</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Valuations are dismissed in exchange for measures of momentum and forward expectations.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Investors take on excess leverage and risk in order to participate in a seemingly “can’t lose” market.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Lastly, and inevitably, “melt-ups” end and always in the worst possible outcomes.</i></b></li> </ol> It is essential to recognize the markets are in a<i>“melt-up,</i>” and the duration of that event is unknowable. Therefore, investors need a strategy to participate in the advance and mitigate the damage from the eventual<i>“melting-down.”</i></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><b><i>融化的时间可能比逻辑预测的要长。</i></b></li><li><b><i>普遍的心理总是“这次不一样了”。</i></b></li><li><b><i>估值被驳回，以换取动量和前瞻性预期的衡量标准。</i></b></li><li><b><i>投资者为了参与一个看似“输不起”的市场，承担了过多的杠杆和风险。</i></b></li><li><b><i>最后，不可避免的是，“融化”以最糟糕的结果告终。</i></b></li></ol>必须认识到市场正处于<i>“融化，</i>“而且该事件的持续时间是未知的。因此，投资者需要一种策略来参与提前并减轻最终的损失<i>“熔化。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Surviving The Melt-Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在融化中幸存下来</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>As noted, none of this means the next</b><b><i>“bear market”</i></b><b>is lurking.</b>Given that a market melting-up is a function of psychology, they can last longer and go further than logic would predict. What is required to “<i>end”</i>a melt-up is an unanticipated exogenous event that changes psychology from bullish to bearish. Such is when the stampede for the exits occurs, and prices decline very quickly.</p><p><blockquote><b>如上所述，这些都不意味着下一个</b><b><i>“熊市”</i></b><b>正在潜伏。</b>鉴于市场融化是心理作用，它们可以持续更长时间，走得比逻辑预测的更远。需要什么“<i>结束“</i>融化是一种意想不到的外生事件，它将心理从看涨转变为看跌。这就是人们蜂拥退出的时候，价格会迅速下跌。</blockquote></p><p> As such, investors need a set of guidelines to participate in the market advance. But, of course, the hard part is keeping those gains when corrections inevitably occur.</p><p><blockquote>因此，投资者需要一套指导方针来参与市场上涨。但是，当然，困难的部分是在不可避免地发生调整时保持这些收益。</blockquote></p><p> As portfolio managers for our clients, such is precisely the approach we must take. Accordingly, I have provided a general overview of the process that we employ.</p><p><blockquote>作为客户的投资组合经理，这正是我们必须采取的方法。因此，我提供了我们采用的流程的总体概述。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><i><b>Tighten up stop-loss levels</b></i><i>to current support levels for each position.(Provides identifiable exit points when the market reverses.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Hedge portfolios</b></i><i>against major market declines.(Non-correlated assets, short-market positions, index put options)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Take profits</b></i><i>in positions that have been big winners(Rebalancing overbought or extended positions to capture gains but continue to participate in the advance.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Sell laggards</b></i><i>and losers</i>.<i>(If something isn’t working in a market melt-up, it most likely won’t work during a broad decline. Better to eliminate the risk early.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Raise cash</b></i><i>and rebalance portfolios to target weightings.(Rebalancing risk on a regular basis keeps hidden risks somewhat mitigated.)</i></li> </ol> <b>Notice, nothing in there says,</b><b><i>“sell everything and go to cash.”</i></b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><i><b>收紧止损水平</b></i><i>每个头寸的当前支撑位。（当市场反转时提供可识别的退出点。）</i></li><li><i><b>对冲投资组合</b></i><i>（非相关资产、空头市场头寸、指数看跌期权）</i></li><li><i><b>获利了结</b></i><i>在已经成为大赢家的头寸中（重新平衡超买或扩展头寸以获取收益，但继续参与上涨。）</i></li><li><i><b>出售落后者</b></i><i>和失败者</i>.<i>（如果某些东西在市场融化时不起作用，那么在广泛下跌时很可能也不会起作用。最好尽早消除风险。）</i></li><li><i><b>筹集现金</b></i><i>并重新平衡投资组合以达到目标权重。（定期重新平衡风险可以在一定程度上减轻隐藏的风险。）</i></li></ol><b>注意，里面没有任何东西说，</b><b><i>“卖掉所有东西，去兑现。”</i></b></blockquote></p><p> There will be a time to raise significant levels of cash. A good portfolio management strategy will automatically ensure that<i>“stop-loss”</i>levels get triggered, exposure decreases, and cash levels rise when the selling begins.</p><p><blockquote>将会有一段时间来筹集大量现金。一个好的投资组合管理策略将自动确保<i>“止损”</i>当出售开始时，水平被触发，风险减少，现金水平上升。</blockquote></p><p> While it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent<i>“this time is different.”</i></p><p><blockquote>虽然有必要在融化持续期间利用它，但不要过于自满<i>“这次不一样。”</i></blockquote></p><p> It likely isn’t.</p><p><blockquote>很可能不是。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457469-technically-speaking-is-the-market-melting-up\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457469-technically-speaking-is-the-market-melting-up","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198528044","content_text":"Summary\n\nGiven the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.\nAs is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.\nWhile it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent “this time is different”.\n\nIs the“market melting-up?”Such was the question I received from my colleague atCut The Crap Investing.It is an excellent question given the relentless increase in what investors believe is a“no risk”market.\nOf course, we need a definition of precisely what constitutes a melt-up.\n\n“A melt-up is a sustained and often unexpected improvement in the investment performance of an asset or asset class, driven partly\nby a stampede of investors who don’t want to miss out on its rise,\nrather than by fundamental improvements in the economy.“–\n Investopedia\n\nCurrently, there is sufficient evidence to support the idea of an exuberant market.As noted previously:\n\n“Near peaks of market cycles, investors become swept up by the underlying exuberance. That exuberance breeds the “rationalization” that “this time is different.” So how do you know the market is exuberant currently? Via Sentiment Trader:”\n\n\n‘This type of market activity is an indication that markets have returned their ‘enthusiasm’ stage. Such is characterized by:’\n\n\nHigh optimism\nEasy credit (too easy, with loose terms)\nA rush of initial and secondary offerings\nRisky stocks outperforming\nStretched valuations\n\n\nHowever, while one would expect individuals to exhibit caution in such an environment, the opposite is true. Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.\nA Visualization Of A Market Melting-Up\nIt is often easier to visualize something rather than explain it.Since 1900, only two previous market periods qualify as a melt-up: 1920-1929 and 1995-2000.The chart below shows both periods in terms of price.\n\nHowever, the melt-up is also visually represented by the incredibly sharp rise in valuations. Such is essential because earnings are not rising at a fast enough clip to support higher prices.As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.\n\nWe can compare those two previous periods with the current advance from the March 2020 lows. Again, we see a very similar sharp advance in price combined with a surge in valuations. As expected, investors are currently hoping that future earnings will rise sharply enough to justify current prices. However, the justification for paying high prices is the Federal Reserve’s ongoing balance sheet expansion.\n\nThe following chart looks that the price advance and valuation measures a little differently. It shows the current deviation from the long-term exponential growth trend. Not surprisingly, during a market“melt-up,”there is a rapid deviation from the growth trend matching the acceleration in valuations.\n\nThe problem with market“melt-ups”is not the melt-up itself but what always follows.\nMelting-Up Leads To Melting-Down\nA market melting-up is exciting while it lasts. During melt-ups, investors begin to rationalize why“this time is different.”They start taking on excess leverage to try and capitalize on the rapid advance in prices, and fundamentals take a back seat to price momentum.\nMarket melt-ups are all about“psychology.”Historically, whatever has been the catalyst to spark the disregard of risk is readily witnessed in the corresponding surge in price and valuations.The chart below shows the long-term deviations in relative strength, deviations, and valuations. The previous‘melt-up”periods should be easy to spot when compared with the advance currently.\n\nGiven that current extensions match only a few rare periods in history, a couple of points should be readily apparent.\n\nMelt-ups can longer than logic would predict.\nThe prevailing psychology is always “this time is different.”\nValuations are dismissed in exchange for measures of momentum and forward expectations.\nInvestors take on excess leverage and risk in order to participate in a seemingly “can’t lose” market.\nLastly, and inevitably, “melt-ups” end and always in the worst possible outcomes.\n\nIt is essential to recognize the markets are in a“melt-up,” and the duration of that event is unknowable. Therefore, investors need a strategy to participate in the advance and mitigate the damage from the eventual“melting-down.”\nSurviving The Melt-Up\nAs noted, none of this means the next“bear market”is lurking.Given that a market melting-up is a function of psychology, they can last longer and go further than logic would predict. What is required to “end”a melt-up is an unanticipated exogenous event that changes psychology from bullish to bearish. Such is when the stampede for the exits occurs, and prices decline very quickly.\nAs such, investors need a set of guidelines to participate in the market advance. But, of course, the hard part is keeping those gains when corrections inevitably occur.\nAs portfolio managers for our clients, such is precisely the approach we must take. Accordingly, I have provided a general overview of the process that we employ.\n\nTighten up stop-loss levelsto current support levels for each position.(Provides identifiable exit points when the market reverses.)\nHedge portfoliosagainst major market declines.(Non-correlated assets, short-market positions, index put options)\nTake profitsin positions that have been big winners(Rebalancing overbought or extended positions to capture gains but continue to participate in the advance.)\nSell laggardsand losers.(If something isn’t working in a market melt-up, it most likely won’t work during a broad decline. Better to eliminate the risk early.)\nRaise cashand rebalance portfolios to target weightings.(Rebalancing risk on a regular basis keeps hidden risks somewhat mitigated.)\n\nNotice, nothing in there says,“sell everything and go to cash.”\nThere will be a time to raise significant levels of cash. A good portfolio management strategy will automatically ensure that“stop-loss”levels get triggered, exposure decreases, and cash levels rise when the selling begins.\nWhile it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent“this time is different.”\nIt likely isn’t.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2211,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":869309893,"gmtCreate":1632239920112,"gmtModify":1632801821693,"author":{"id":"3583650394724849","authorId":"3583650394724849","name":"ThECROW","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583650394724849","idStr":"3583650394724849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[强]&nbsp;","listText":"[强]&nbsp;","text":"[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/869309893","repostId":"1178869256","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3025,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}