+关注
Pixieponies
暂无个人介绍
IP属地：未知
1
关注
0
粉丝
0
主题
0
勋章
主贴
热门
Pixieponies
2021-06-18
Wowwww
As the S&P 500 falters, this is what it will take to revive the bull market<blockquote>随着标普500步履蹒跚，这就是重振牛市的方法</blockquote>
去老虎APP查看更多动态
{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3583036752853589","uuid":"3583036752853589","gmtCreate":1619943437365,"gmtModify":1619955445246,"name":"Pixieponies","pinyin":"pixieponies","introduction":"","introductionEn":null,"signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b41d4c73bb602c4f7e17b0108275e8a","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":0,"headSize":1,"tweetSize":1,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":3,"level":{"id":1,"name":"萌萌虎","nameTw":"萌萌虎","represent":"呱呱坠地","factor":"评论帖子3次或发布1条主帖（非转发）","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[],"userBadgeCount":0,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"未知","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":168776217,"gmtCreate":1623984827239,"gmtModify":1634024672992,"author":{"id":"3583036752853589","authorId":"3583036752853589","name":"Pixieponies","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b41d4c73bb602c4f7e17b0108275e8a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583036752853589","idStr":"3583036752853589"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wowwww ","listText":"Wowwww ","text":"Wowwww","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168776217","repostId":"1169452580","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169452580","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623976154,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1169452580?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 08:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"As the S&P 500 falters, this is what it will take to revive the bull market<blockquote>随着标普500步履蹒跚，这就是重振牛市的方法</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169452580","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The stock market’s key level is 4190\nRunning with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/","content":"<p>The stock market’s key level is 4190</p><p><blockquote>股市关键位4190</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3f4a1dc768fe79cb0fda59c2aa0b93f\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"961\"><span>Running with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>和公牛一起跑步会让人筋疲力尽。法新社/盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Over the past two weeks, the S&P 500 index has been attempting to break out to the upside. The previous highs at 4238 were registered in early May, and while SPX did close or trade above 4238 for five straight days, there was no follow-through. Now the nervousness brought about by the Federal Reserve meeting has caused the index to fall back below that level.</p><p><blockquote>过去两周，标普500指数一直试图向上突破。之前的高点4238点是在5月初创下的，虽然SPX确实连续五天收盘或交易在4238点上方，但没有后续行动。现在美联储会议带来的紧张情绪导致指数回落至该水平以下。</blockquote></p><p> I wouldn’t classify this as a “false breakout” yet, but it’s pretty close to being one.</p><p><blockquote>我还不会把这归类为“假突破”，但它已经非常接近了。</blockquote></p><p> SPX has been trading in a tight range since May 24, and it seems to have been pulled back into that range. A close below 4190 would be a close below the bottom of that range, and<i>that</i>would be the completion of a “false breakout,” in my opinion.</p><p><blockquote>自5月24日以来，SPX一直在窄幅区间内交易，目前似乎已被拉回该区间。收盘价低于4190点将是收盘价低于该区间底部，并且<i>那个</i>在我看来，这将是一次“假突破”的完成。</blockquote></p><p> A failure at that level would bring about the specter of a retracement all the way to the bottom of the larger trading range – to the May lows at 4060. A failure of that level would be much more dire and might be the issuance of a new bear market.</p><p><blockquote>在该水平上的失败将带来回撤的幽灵，一直到更大交易区间的底部——到5月份的低点4060点。未能达到这一水平将更加可怕，可能会引发新的熊市。</blockquote></p><p> But before getting carried away with dire predictions, it should be noted that the bears have had many, many chances to take control – especially since last December – and have failed to do so every time. It is still the case that the return to new all-time highs, via a breakout over what is now a rather condensed resistance area from 4238 up to the recent new highs at 4257, would return clear control to the bulls.</p><p><blockquote>但在被可怕的预测冲昏头脑之前，应该指出的是，空头有很多很多次机会控制局面——尤其是自去年12月以来——但每次都失败了。情况仍然是，通过突破从4238点到最近的新高4257点的相当集中的阻力区，回到历史新高，将使多头明确控制。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05764c1c1d52ace424d326a7a0b116d\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"694\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>劳伦斯·麦克米兰</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The limited movement that has been seen by SPX since May 24 has had the effect of drastically dropping the realized, or historical volatility (HV). The S&P’s 20-day HV is now down to 7% (a rise back above 11% would be a sell signal, but that’s not imminent).</p><p><blockquote>SPX自5月24日以来的有限波动导致已实现或历史波动率(HV)大幅下降。S&P的20天HV现已降至7%（回升至11%以上将是卖出信号，但这不会迫在眉睫）。</blockquote></p><p> In turn, this drop in realized volatility has caused the “modified Bollinger Bands” (mBB) to tighten about the S&P’s still-rising 20-day Moving Average. The McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal of early May is still in effect. It will either be stopped out by rising above the +4σ Band, or it will reach its target by touching the -4σ Band. Both of those are now more likely, since the Bands are constricting.</p><p><blockquote>反过来，实际波动率的下降导致“修正布林线”（mBB）收紧标准普尔仍在上涨的20日移动平均线。5月初的麦克米兰波动带(MVB)卖出信号仍然有效。它要么通过升至+4 σ波段以上而被止损，要么通过触及-4 σ波段而达到目标。这两种情况现在都更有可能发生，因为波段正在收缩。</blockquote></p><p> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. They turned downward, issuing those buy signals, in late May. Call buying has remained relatively heavy since then, forcing those ratios lower. As long as they are declining, that is a bullish sign for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率仍处于买入信号。他们在五月下旬转向下行，发出了买入信号。自那以来，看涨期权的购买量一直相对较大，迫使这些比率下降。只要它们在下跌，这对股票来说就是看涨的信号。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7df3290d0ca5e563bba9819c21394cd9\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>劳伦斯·麦克米兰</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cfe716af41c1797bbb147a441d73df0\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"692\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>劳伦斯·麦克米兰</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Breadth has been something of a problem. While our breadth oscillators did issue buy signal on May 13, they never really expanded as SPX was making those new all-time highs recently. That is not a good sign, and now breadth has been negative for the last three trading days. This is enough to roll the “stocks only” breadth oscillator over to a sell signal.</p><p><blockquote>广度一直是个问题。虽然我们的广度振荡指标确实在5月13日发出了买入信号，但随着SPX最近创下历史新高，它们从未真正扩大。这不是一个好兆头，现在广度在过去三个交易日一直为负。这足以将“仅股票”宽度振荡器滚动为卖出信号。</blockquote></p><p> The NYSE breadth oscillator is not yet in agreement, but one more day of negative breadth today would force that onto a sell signal as well.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标尚未达成一致，但今天再出现一天的负宽度也将迫使其发出卖出信号。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, the cumulative breadth indicators had been making new all-time highs along with SPX, but as readers of mine should know, I do not consider that predictive. It only means that a negative divergence is not in place. Even so, not every market top has a negative divergence. So, for now, breadth has become something of a problem.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，累积宽度指标与SPX一起创下历史新高，但正如我的读者应该知道的那样，我不认为这是预测性的。这只意味着负背离不到位。即便如此，并不是每个市场顶部都有负背离。所以，就目前而言，广度已经成为一个问题。</blockquote></p><p> The measure of new 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows, however, is not a problem as far as the bulls are concerned. New highs continue to dominate new lows across all three data sets. So, this indicator remains bullish.</p><p><blockquote>然而，对于多头来说，衡量52周新高与52周新低并不是问题。在所有三个数据集中，新高继续主导新低。因此，该指标仍然看涨。</blockquote></p><p> Volatility and volatility derivatives have remained in the bullish camp for most of the last year, and they are still there. VIX has not returned to “spiking” mode (a gain of 3.00 or more points, using closing prices, over any three-day time frame). Thus, the “spike peak” buy signal of May 21 remains intact. Meanwhile, the trend of the VIX chart is still lower, as VIX is well below its declining 200-day moving average, and so is the 20-day MA.</p><p><blockquote>波动率和波动率衍生品在去年的大部分时间里都保持在看涨阵营，现在仍然如此。VIX尚未回到“飙升”模式（使用收盘价，在任何三天时间范围内上涨3.00点或更多）。因此，5月21日的“峰值”买入信号保持不变。与此同时，VIX图表的趋势仍然走低，因为VIX远低于其下降的200日移动平均线，20日均线也是如此。</blockquote></p><p> The construct of volatility derivatives remains bullish for stocks. That is, the VIX futures (of which July is now the front month) are all trading at fairly large premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. Likewise, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward, too. Those are all bullish signs for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构仍然看好股市。也就是说，VIX期货（现在是7月的前一个月）的交易价格都相对于VIX有相当大的溢价，并且它们的期限结构向上倾斜。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构也向上倾斜。这些都是股市看涨的迹象。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c7a9b8266644b877085c11cc2429a6\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"690\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>劳伦斯·麦克米兰</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In summary, the indicators are still mostly positive, so as long as the S&P 500 can remain above 4190, we are still bullish. As confirmed sell signals may arise, we will trade them around the essentially “core” bullish position.</p><p><blockquote>综上，指标还是偏多，所以只要标普500能维持在4190以上，我们还是看涨的。由于可能出现确认的卖出信号，我们将围绕本质上“核心”看涨位置进行交易。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New recommendation: SPX upside breakout</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新建议：SPX上行突破</b></blockquote></p><p> Should SPX recover and make new all-time highs, we want to take a corresponding long position.</p><p><blockquote>如果SPX恢复并创下历史新高，我们希望建立相应的多头头寸。</blockquote></p><p> <b>IF SPX closes above 4260,</b></p><p><blockquote><b>如果SPX收于4260上方，</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>THEN buy 2 SPY July (16th) at-the-money calls.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>然后购买2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）平价评级。</b></blockquote></p><p> SPX: 4223</p><p><blockquote>SPX：4223</blockquote></p><p> NOTE: We are not use a call bull spread for this recommendation, since VIX is low enough (and will likely be lower if SPX makes new all-time highs) that the spread is not necessary. Call bull spreads, as opposed to outright long call positions, are only called for when volatility is high (i.e., when the options are “over-priced”). That is not the case any longer.</p><p><blockquote>注意：我们在此建议中不使用看涨期权牛市价差，因为VIX足够低（如果SPX创下历史新高，可能会更低），因此没有必要使用价差。与直接多头看涨期权头寸相反，看涨期权牛市价差仅在波动性较高时（即当期权“定价过高”时）才需要。现在情况不再是这样了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New Recommendation: Rapt Therapeutics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新推荐：Rapt Therapeutics</b></blockquote></p><p> This past week, there has been unusual option volume in a number of areas, but not so much in takeover rumors. There was heavy volume in a couple of the new SPAC mergers – Churchill Capital Corp. and GS Acquisition Holdings Corp.Those are typically overdone in the first few days after the mergers are announced. There was also heavy option volume in Petco Health & Wellness Co.,but that seem to be related to the social media message boards – a dubious reason for buying a stock.</p><p><blockquote>过去一周，许多领域的期权交易量都出现了异常，但收购传闻却没有那么多。丘吉尔资本公司(Churchill Capital Corp.)和GS Acquisition Holdings Corp.)的几起新的SPAC合并交易量很大。在合并宣布后的头几天，这些行为通常会过度。Petco Health&Wellness Co.的期权交易量也很大，但这似乎与社交媒体留言板有关——这是购买股票的可疑原因。</blockquote></p><p> However, in Rapt Therapeutics,there was a major drug announcement in the form of the results of a positive trial for a drug for eczema. Apparently, there is major potential for such a drug. The stock exploded from 19 to 42 in one day but has now pulled back to 31. This is a highly aggressive recommendation, but at least with a call option purchase, you know what your risk is – the cost of the call.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在Rapt Therapeutics中，有一个重大的药物公告，其形式是一种治疗湿疹的药物的阳性试验结果。显然，这种药物有很大的潜力。该股一天内从19点飙升至42点，但现在已回落至31点。这是一个非常激进的建议，但至少在购买看涨期权期权时，您知道您的风险是什么——看涨期权的成本。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Buy 1 RAPT July (16th) 30 call</b></p><p><blockquote><b>购买1 RAPT 7月（16日）30看涨期权</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>At a price of 5.00 or less.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>价格为5.00或更低。</b></blockquote></p><p> RAPT: 31.90 July (16th) 30 call: 4.50 bid, offered at 5.00</p><p><blockquote>RAPT：31.90 7月（16日）30看涨期权：4.50出价，报价5.00</blockquote></p><p> If the call is bought, stop yourself out on a close below 26 by RAPT, for that would close that gap from last December and would not be in line with a bullish outlook.</p><p><blockquote>如果看涨期权被买入，请在收盘价低于26时止损，因为这将缩小与去年12月的差距，并且不符合看涨前景。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b63b8c6a70a7ad7227974855bc6355a7\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"690\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>劳伦斯·麦克米兰</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Follow-up action</b></p><p><blockquote><b>后续行动</b></blockquote></p><p> <b><i>All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>除非另有说明，所有停止都是精神关闭停止。</i></b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 2 SPY July (2nd) 410 puts:</b>This trade was originally taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4280 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band, which is currently at 4135 and rising.</p><p><blockquote><b>多头2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（2日）410看跌期权：</b>这笔交易最初是因为5月12日出现的MVB卖出信号而进行的。它将被SPX再次收于+4 σ波段上方止损，该波段位于4280点并横盘整理。如果SPX交易在-4 σ区间，该信号将达到其利润目标，目前该区间为4135点且正在上升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 3 expiring DUK June (18th) 100 calls:</b>There has not been any news on the activist investor in Duke Energy except for the fact that option volume picks up whenever the stock rallies slightly. We are going to roll to <b>July (16th) 100 calls.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>龙3到期DUK 6月（18日）100评级：</b>除了每当该股小幅上涨时期权交易量就会增加之外，目前还没有任何关于杜克能源激进投资者的消息。我们要滚到<b>7月（16日）100评级。</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 2 expiring SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:</b>This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. Since the signal is still intact (barely), sell this spread and replace it by buying 2 SPY July (9th) at-the-money calls. We are no longer using a spread here. The calls would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices). Today, that would be a close over 19.39. Meanwhile, if the position<i>is</i>stopped out, a new “spike peak” buy signal will set up shortly.</p><p><blockquote><b>多2到期SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（18日）415评级空2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（18日）428评级：</b>该价差是在5月21日最新的VIX“尖峰”买入信号得到确认时买入的。由于信号仍然完好无损（勉强），卖出这个价差，换成买入2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（9日）平价评级。我们在这里不再使用跨页。如果VIX回到飙升模式——也就是说，如果它在任何三天或更短的时间内上涨至少3.00点（使用收盘价），评级将被阻止。今天，收盘价将超过19.39。同时，如果持仓<i>是</i>止损后，新的“尖峰”买入信号将很快建立。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 1 expiring KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:</b>This takeover bid has not worked out well. Sell these calls and do not replace them.</p><p><blockquote><b>长1到期KSU 6月（18日）300看涨期权：</b>这次收购并不顺利。出售这些评级，不要更换它们。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:</b>This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPX trades at 437, roll up the calls from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll down the puts to the 403 strike.</p><p><blockquote><b>做多1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）420看涨期权和做多1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）420看跌：</b>这种多头跨式交易是在预期SPX将从420水平波动移动的情况下进行的。如果SPX交易价格为437，则将评级从420点向上滚动至437点（或最接近该点的点）。相反，如果SPX交易价格为403，则将看跌期权滚降至403。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:</b>The takeover rumors were rampant again this past week – on June 14. Roll to the<b>July (16th) 80 calls.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>龙4 CERN 6月（18日）80评级：</b>过去一周——6月14日——收购传闻再次甚嚣尘上。滚动到<b>7月（16日）80评级。</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls:</b>Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Cornerstone OnDemand closed above 47, which it did on June 4. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 48.00.</p><p><blockquote><b>龙4 CSOD 7月（16日）47.5评级：</b>我们的建议是，如果Cornerstone OnDemand收盘价高于47点（6月4日），则买入这些评级。将尾随收盘止损提高至48.00。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls:</b>Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Dropbox closed above 28.50, which it did on June 7. This is also an “activist investor” situation. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 27.80.</p><p><blockquote><b>龙4 DBX 7月（16日）28日评级：</b>我们的建议是，如果Dropbox收盘价高于28.50（6月7日），则买入这些评级。这也是一种“维权投资者”的情况。将尾随收盘止损提高至27.80。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Long 6 CVA July (16th) 17.5 calls:</b>Hold without a stop, while the rumor of the company pursuing strategic alternatives has a chance to work out.</p><p><blockquote><b>龙6 CVA 7月（16日）17.5评级：</b>不停地持有，而该公司寻求战略替代方案的传言有机会得到解决。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 4 SDC July (16th) 9 calls:</b>Option volume remains modestly heavy as takeover rumors continue to circulate. Hold without a stop.</p><p><blockquote><b>龙4 SDC 7月（16日）9评级：</b>随着收购传闻继续流传，期权交易量仍然适度偏高。不停地坚持。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>As the S&P 500 falters, this is what it will take to revive the bull market<blockquote>随着标普500步履蹒跚，这就是重振牛市的方法</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAs the S&P 500 falters, this is what it will take to revive the bull market<blockquote>随着标普500步履蹒跚，这就是重振牛市的方法</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 08:29</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The stock market’s key level is 4190</p><p><blockquote>股市关键位4190</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3f4a1dc768fe79cb0fda59c2aa0b93f\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"961\"><span>Running with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>和公牛一起跑步会让人筋疲力尽。法新社/盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Over the past two weeks, the S&P 500 index has been attempting to break out to the upside. The previous highs at 4238 were registered in early May, and while SPX did close or trade above 4238 for five straight days, there was no follow-through. Now the nervousness brought about by the Federal Reserve meeting has caused the index to fall back below that level.</p><p><blockquote>过去两周，标普500指数一直试图向上突破。之前的高点4238点是在5月初创下的，虽然SPX确实连续五天收盘或交易在4238点上方，但没有后续行动。现在美联储会议带来的紧张情绪导致指数回落至该水平以下。</blockquote></p><p> I wouldn’t classify this as a “false breakout” yet, but it’s pretty close to being one.</p><p><blockquote>我还不会把这归类为“假突破”，但它已经非常接近了。</blockquote></p><p> SPX has been trading in a tight range since May 24, and it seems to have been pulled back into that range. A close below 4190 would be a close below the bottom of that range, and<i>that</i>would be the completion of a “false breakout,” in my opinion.</p><p><blockquote>自5月24日以来，SPX一直在窄幅区间内交易，目前似乎已被拉回该区间。收盘价低于4190点将是收盘价低于该区间底部，并且<i>那个</i>在我看来，这将是一次“假突破”的完成。</blockquote></p><p> A failure at that level would bring about the specter of a retracement all the way to the bottom of the larger trading range – to the May lows at 4060. A failure of that level would be much more dire and might be the issuance of a new bear market.</p><p><blockquote>在该水平上的失败将带来回撤的幽灵，一直到更大交易区间的底部——到5月份的低点4060点。未能达到这一水平将更加可怕，可能会引发新的熊市。</blockquote></p><p> But before getting carried away with dire predictions, it should be noted that the bears have had many, many chances to take control – especially since last December – and have failed to do so every time. It is still the case that the return to new all-time highs, via a breakout over what is now a rather condensed resistance area from 4238 up to the recent new highs at 4257, would return clear control to the bulls.</p><p><blockquote>但在被可怕的预测冲昏头脑之前，应该指出的是，空头有很多很多次机会控制局面——尤其是自去年12月以来——但每次都失败了。情况仍然是，通过突破从4238点到最近的新高4257点的相当集中的阻力区，回到历史新高，将使多头明确控制。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05764c1c1d52ace424d326a7a0b116d\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"694\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>劳伦斯·麦克米兰</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The limited movement that has been seen by SPX since May 24 has had the effect of drastically dropping the realized, or historical volatility (HV). The S&P’s 20-day HV is now down to 7% (a rise back above 11% would be a sell signal, but that’s not imminent).</p><p><blockquote>SPX自5月24日以来的有限波动导致已实现或历史波动率(HV)大幅下降。S&P的20天HV现已降至7%（回升至11%以上将是卖出信号，但这不会迫在眉睫）。</blockquote></p><p> In turn, this drop in realized volatility has caused the “modified Bollinger Bands” (mBB) to tighten about the S&P’s still-rising 20-day Moving Average. The McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal of early May is still in effect. It will either be stopped out by rising above the +4σ Band, or it will reach its target by touching the -4σ Band. Both of those are now more likely, since the Bands are constricting.</p><p><blockquote>反过来，实际波动率的下降导致“修正布林线”（mBB）收紧标准普尔仍在上涨的20日移动平均线。5月初的麦克米兰波动带(MVB)卖出信号仍然有效。它要么通过升至+4 σ波段以上而被止损，要么通过触及-4 σ波段而达到目标。这两种情况现在都更有可能发生，因为波段正在收缩。</blockquote></p><p> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. They turned downward, issuing those buy signals, in late May. Call buying has remained relatively heavy since then, forcing those ratios lower. As long as they are declining, that is a bullish sign for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率仍处于买入信号。他们在五月下旬转向下行，发出了买入信号。自那以来，看涨期权的购买量一直相对较大，迫使这些比率下降。只要它们在下跌，这对股票来说就是看涨的信号。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7df3290d0ca5e563bba9819c21394cd9\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>劳伦斯·麦克米兰</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cfe716af41c1797bbb147a441d73df0\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"692\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>劳伦斯·麦克米兰</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Breadth has been something of a problem. While our breadth oscillators did issue buy signal on May 13, they never really expanded as SPX was making those new all-time highs recently. That is not a good sign, and now breadth has been negative for the last three trading days. This is enough to roll the “stocks only” breadth oscillator over to a sell signal.</p><p><blockquote>广度一直是个问题。虽然我们的广度振荡指标确实在5月13日发出了买入信号，但随着SPX最近创下历史新高，它们从未真正扩大。这不是一个好兆头，现在广度在过去三个交易日一直为负。这足以将“仅股票”宽度振荡器滚动为卖出信号。</blockquote></p><p> The NYSE breadth oscillator is not yet in agreement, but one more day of negative breadth today would force that onto a sell signal as well.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标尚未达成一致，但今天再出现一天的负宽度也将迫使其发出卖出信号。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, the cumulative breadth indicators had been making new all-time highs along with SPX, but as readers of mine should know, I do not consider that predictive. It only means that a negative divergence is not in place. Even so, not every market top has a negative divergence. So, for now, breadth has become something of a problem.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，累积宽度指标与SPX一起创下历史新高，但正如我的读者应该知道的那样，我不认为这是预测性的。这只意味着负背离不到位。即便如此，并不是每个市场顶部都有负背离。所以，就目前而言，广度已经成为一个问题。</blockquote></p><p> The measure of new 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows, however, is not a problem as far as the bulls are concerned. New highs continue to dominate new lows across all three data sets. So, this indicator remains bullish.</p><p><blockquote>然而，对于多头来说，衡量52周新高与52周新低并不是问题。在所有三个数据集中，新高继续主导新低。因此，该指标仍然看涨。</blockquote></p><p> Volatility and volatility derivatives have remained in the bullish camp for most of the last year, and they are still there. VIX has not returned to “spiking” mode (a gain of 3.00 or more points, using closing prices, over any three-day time frame). Thus, the “spike peak” buy signal of May 21 remains intact. Meanwhile, the trend of the VIX chart is still lower, as VIX is well below its declining 200-day moving average, and so is the 20-day MA.</p><p><blockquote>波动率和波动率衍生品在去年的大部分时间里都保持在看涨阵营，现在仍然如此。VIX尚未回到“飙升”模式（使用收盘价，在任何三天时间范围内上涨3.00点或更多）。因此，5月21日的“峰值”买入信号保持不变。与此同时，VIX图表的趋势仍然走低，因为VIX远低于其下降的200日移动平均线，20日均线也是如此。</blockquote></p><p> The construct of volatility derivatives remains bullish for stocks. That is, the VIX futures (of which July is now the front month) are all trading at fairly large premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. Likewise, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward, too. Those are all bullish signs for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构仍然看好股市。也就是说，VIX期货（现在是7月的前一个月）的交易价格都相对于VIX有相当大的溢价，并且它们的期限结构向上倾斜。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构也向上倾斜。这些都是股市看涨的迹象。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c7a9b8266644b877085c11cc2429a6\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"690\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>劳伦斯·麦克米兰</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In summary, the indicators are still mostly positive, so as long as the S&P 500 can remain above 4190, we are still bullish. As confirmed sell signals may arise, we will trade them around the essentially “core” bullish position.</p><p><blockquote>综上，指标还是偏多，所以只要标普500能维持在4190以上，我们还是看涨的。由于可能出现确认的卖出信号，我们将围绕本质上“核心”看涨位置进行交易。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New recommendation: SPX upside breakout</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新建议：SPX上行突破</b></blockquote></p><p> Should SPX recover and make new all-time highs, we want to take a corresponding long position.</p><p><blockquote>如果SPX恢复并创下历史新高，我们希望建立相应的多头头寸。</blockquote></p><p> <b>IF SPX closes above 4260,</b></p><p><blockquote><b>如果SPX收于4260上方，</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>THEN buy 2 SPY July (16th) at-the-money calls.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>然后购买2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）平价评级。</b></blockquote></p><p> SPX: 4223</p><p><blockquote>SPX：4223</blockquote></p><p> NOTE: We are not use a call bull spread for this recommendation, since VIX is low enough (and will likely be lower if SPX makes new all-time highs) that the spread is not necessary. Call bull spreads, as opposed to outright long call positions, are only called for when volatility is high (i.e., when the options are “over-priced”). That is not the case any longer.</p><p><blockquote>注意：我们在此建议中不使用看涨期权牛市价差，因为VIX足够低（如果SPX创下历史新高，可能会更低），因此没有必要使用价差。与直接多头看涨期权头寸相反，看涨期权牛市价差仅在波动性较高时（即当期权“定价过高”时）才需要。现在情况不再是这样了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New Recommendation: Rapt Therapeutics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新推荐：Rapt Therapeutics</b></blockquote></p><p> This past week, there has been unusual option volume in a number of areas, but not so much in takeover rumors. There was heavy volume in a couple of the new SPAC mergers – Churchill Capital Corp. and GS Acquisition Holdings Corp.Those are typically overdone in the first few days after the mergers are announced. There was also heavy option volume in Petco Health & Wellness Co.,but that seem to be related to the social media message boards – a dubious reason for buying a stock.</p><p><blockquote>过去一周，许多领域的期权交易量都出现了异常，但收购传闻却没有那么多。丘吉尔资本公司(Churchill Capital Corp.)和GS Acquisition Holdings Corp.)的几起新的SPAC合并交易量很大。在合并宣布后的头几天，这些行为通常会过度。Petco Health&Wellness Co.的期权交易量也很大，但这似乎与社交媒体留言板有关——这是购买股票的可疑原因。</blockquote></p><p> However, in Rapt Therapeutics,there was a major drug announcement in the form of the results of a positive trial for a drug for eczema. Apparently, there is major potential for such a drug. The stock exploded from 19 to 42 in one day but has now pulled back to 31. This is a highly aggressive recommendation, but at least with a call option purchase, you know what your risk is – the cost of the call.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在Rapt Therapeutics中，有一个重大的药物公告，其形式是一种治疗湿疹的药物的阳性试验结果。显然，这种药物有很大的潜力。该股一天内从19点飙升至42点，但现在已回落至31点。这是一个非常激进的建议，但至少在购买看涨期权期权时，您知道您的风险是什么——看涨期权的成本。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Buy 1 RAPT July (16th) 30 call</b></p><p><blockquote><b>购买1 RAPT 7月（16日）30看涨期权</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>At a price of 5.00 or less.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>价格为5.00或更低。</b></blockquote></p><p> RAPT: 31.90 July (16th) 30 call: 4.50 bid, offered at 5.00</p><p><blockquote>RAPT：31.90 7月（16日）30看涨期权：4.50出价，报价5.00</blockquote></p><p> If the call is bought, stop yourself out on a close below 26 by RAPT, for that would close that gap from last December and would not be in line with a bullish outlook.</p><p><blockquote>如果看涨期权被买入，请在收盘价低于26时止损，因为这将缩小与去年12月的差距，并且不符合看涨前景。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b63b8c6a70a7ad7227974855bc6355a7\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"690\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>劳伦斯·麦克米兰</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Follow-up action</b></p><p><blockquote><b>后续行动</b></blockquote></p><p> <b><i>All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>除非另有说明，所有停止都是精神关闭停止。</i></b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 2 SPY July (2nd) 410 puts:</b>This trade was originally taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4280 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band, which is currently at 4135 and rising.</p><p><blockquote><b>多头2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（2日）410看跌期权：</b>这笔交易最初是因为5月12日出现的MVB卖出信号而进行的。它将被SPX再次收于+4 σ波段上方止损，该波段位于4280点并横盘整理。如果SPX交易在-4 σ区间，该信号将达到其利润目标，目前该区间为4135点且正在上升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 3 expiring DUK June (18th) 100 calls:</b>There has not been any news on the activist investor in Duke Energy except for the fact that option volume picks up whenever the stock rallies slightly. We are going to roll to <b>July (16th) 100 calls.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>龙3到期DUK 6月（18日）100评级：</b>除了每当该股小幅上涨时期权交易量就会增加之外，目前还没有任何关于杜克能源激进投资者的消息。我们要滚到<b>7月（16日）100评级。</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 2 expiring SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:</b>This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. Since the signal is still intact (barely), sell this spread and replace it by buying 2 SPY July (9th) at-the-money calls. We are no longer using a spread here. The calls would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices). Today, that would be a close over 19.39. Meanwhile, if the position<i>is</i>stopped out, a new “spike peak” buy signal will set up shortly.</p><p><blockquote><b>多2到期SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（18日）415评级空2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（18日）428评级：</b>该价差是在5月21日最新的VIX“尖峰”买入信号得到确认时买入的。由于信号仍然完好无损（勉强），卖出这个价差，换成买入2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（9日）平价评级。我们在这里不再使用跨页。如果VIX回到飙升模式——也就是说，如果它在任何三天或更短的时间内上涨至少3.00点（使用收盘价），评级将被阻止。今天，收盘价将超过19.39。同时，如果持仓<i>是</i>止损后，新的“尖峰”买入信号将很快建立。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 1 expiring KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:</b>This takeover bid has not worked out well. Sell these calls and do not replace them.</p><p><blockquote><b>长1到期KSU 6月（18日）300看涨期权：</b>这次收购并不顺利。出售这些评级，不要更换它们。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:</b>This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPX trades at 437, roll up the calls from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll down the puts to the 403 strike.</p><p><blockquote><b>做多1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）420看涨期权和做多1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）420看跌：</b>这种多头跨式交易是在预期SPX将从420水平波动移动的情况下进行的。如果SPX交易价格为437，则将评级从420点向上滚动至437点（或最接近该点的点）。相反，如果SPX交易价格为403，则将看跌期权滚降至403。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:</b>The takeover rumors were rampant again this past week – on June 14. Roll to the<b>July (16th) 80 calls.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>龙4 CERN 6月（18日）80评级：</b>过去一周——6月14日——收购传闻再次甚嚣尘上。滚动到<b>7月（16日）80评级。</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls:</b>Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Cornerstone OnDemand closed above 47, which it did on June 4. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 48.00.</p><p><blockquote><b>龙4 CSOD 7月（16日）47.5评级：</b>我们的建议是，如果Cornerstone OnDemand收盘价高于47点（6月4日），则买入这些评级。将尾随收盘止损提高至48.00。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls:</b>Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Dropbox closed above 28.50, which it did on June 7. This is also an “activist investor” situation. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 27.80.</p><p><blockquote><b>龙4 DBX 7月（16日）28日评级：</b>我们的建议是，如果Dropbox收盘价高于28.50（6月7日），则买入这些评级。这也是一种“维权投资者”的情况。将尾随收盘止损提高至27.80。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Long 6 CVA July (16th) 17.5 calls:</b>Hold without a stop, while the rumor of the company pursuing strategic alternatives has a chance to work out.</p><p><blockquote><b>龙6 CVA 7月（16日）17.5评级：</b>不停地持有，而该公司寻求战略替代方案的传言有机会得到解决。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 4 SDC July (16th) 9 calls:</b>Option volume remains modestly heavy as takeover rumors continue to circulate. Hold without a stop.</p><p><blockquote><b>龙4 SDC 7月（16日）9评级：</b>随着收购传闻继续流传，期权交易量仍然适度偏高。不停地坚持。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-falters-this-is-what-it-will-take-to-revive-the-bull-market-11623942534?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-falters-this-is-what-it-will-take-to-revive-the-bull-market-11623942534?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169452580","content_text":"The stock market’s key level is 4190\nRunning with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES\nOver the past two weeks, the S&P 500 index has been attempting to break out to the upside. The previous highs at 4238 were registered in early May, and while SPX did close or trade above 4238 for five straight days, there was no follow-through. Now the nervousness brought about by the Federal Reserve meeting has caused the index to fall back below that level.\nI wouldn’t classify this as a “false breakout” yet, but it’s pretty close to being one.\nSPX has been trading in a tight range since May 24, and it seems to have been pulled back into that range. A close below 4190 would be a close below the bottom of that range, andthatwould be the completion of a “false breakout,” in my opinion.\nA failure at that level would bring about the specter of a retracement all the way to the bottom of the larger trading range – to the May lows at 4060. A failure of that level would be much more dire and might be the issuance of a new bear market.\nBut before getting carried away with dire predictions, it should be noted that the bears have had many, many chances to take control – especially since last December – and have failed to do so every time. It is still the case that the return to new all-time highs, via a breakout over what is now a rather condensed resistance area from 4238 up to the recent new highs at 4257, would return clear control to the bulls.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nThe limited movement that has been seen by SPX since May 24 has had the effect of drastically dropping the realized, or historical volatility (HV). The S&P’s 20-day HV is now down to 7% (a rise back above 11% would be a sell signal, but that’s not imminent).\nIn turn, this drop in realized volatility has caused the “modified Bollinger Bands” (mBB) to tighten about the S&P’s still-rising 20-day Moving Average. The McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal of early May is still in effect. It will either be stopped out by rising above the +4σ Band, or it will reach its target by touching the -4σ Band. Both of those are now more likely, since the Bands are constricting.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. They turned downward, issuing those buy signals, in late May. Call buying has remained relatively heavy since then, forcing those ratios lower. As long as they are declining, that is a bullish sign for stocks.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has been something of a problem. While our breadth oscillators did issue buy signal on May 13, they never really expanded as SPX was making those new all-time highs recently. That is not a good sign, and now breadth has been negative for the last three trading days. This is enough to roll the “stocks only” breadth oscillator over to a sell signal.\nThe NYSE breadth oscillator is not yet in agreement, but one more day of negative breadth today would force that onto a sell signal as well.\nMeanwhile, the cumulative breadth indicators had been making new all-time highs along with SPX, but as readers of mine should know, I do not consider that predictive. It only means that a negative divergence is not in place. Even so, not every market top has a negative divergence. So, for now, breadth has become something of a problem.\nThe measure of new 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows, however, is not a problem as far as the bulls are concerned. New highs continue to dominate new lows across all three data sets. So, this indicator remains bullish.\nVolatility and volatility derivatives have remained in the bullish camp for most of the last year, and they are still there. VIX has not returned to “spiking” mode (a gain of 3.00 or more points, using closing prices, over any three-day time frame). Thus, the “spike peak” buy signal of May 21 remains intact. Meanwhile, the trend of the VIX chart is still lower, as VIX is well below its declining 200-day moving average, and so is the 20-day MA.\nThe construct of volatility derivatives remains bullish for stocks. That is, the VIX futures (of which July is now the front month) are all trading at fairly large premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. Likewise, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward, too. Those are all bullish signs for stocks.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nIn summary, the indicators are still mostly positive, so as long as the S&P 500 can remain above 4190, we are still bullish. As confirmed sell signals may arise, we will trade them around the essentially “core” bullish position.\nNew recommendation: SPX upside breakout\nShould SPX recover and make new all-time highs, we want to take a corresponding long position.\nIF SPX closes above 4260,\nTHEN buy 2 SPY July (16th) at-the-money calls.\nSPX: 4223\nNOTE: We are not use a call bull spread for this recommendation, since VIX is low enough (and will likely be lower if SPX makes new all-time highs) that the spread is not necessary. Call bull spreads, as opposed to outright long call positions, are only called for when volatility is high (i.e., when the options are “over-priced”). That is not the case any longer.\nNew Recommendation: Rapt Therapeutics\nThis past week, there has been unusual option volume in a number of areas, but not so much in takeover rumors. There was heavy volume in a couple of the new SPAC mergers – Churchill Capital Corp. and GS Acquisition Holdings Corp.Those are typically overdone in the first few days after the mergers are announced. There was also heavy option volume in Petco Health & Wellness Co.,but that seem to be related to the social media message boards – a dubious reason for buying a stock.\nHowever, in Rapt Therapeutics,there was a major drug announcement in the form of the results of a positive trial for a drug for eczema. Apparently, there is major potential for such a drug. The stock exploded from 19 to 42 in one day but has now pulled back to 31. This is a highly aggressive recommendation, but at least with a call option purchase, you know what your risk is – the cost of the call.\nBuy 1 RAPT July (16th) 30 call\nAt a price of 5.00 or less.\nRAPT: 31.90 July (16th) 30 call: 4.50 bid, offered at 5.00\nIf the call is bought, stop yourself out on a close below 26 by RAPT, for that would close that gap from last December and would not be in line with a bullish outlook.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nFollow-up action\nAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.\nLong 2 SPY July (2nd) 410 puts:This trade was originally taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4280 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band, which is currently at 4135 and rising.\nLong 3 expiring DUK June (18th) 100 calls:There has not been any news on the activist investor in Duke Energy except for the fact that option volume picks up whenever the stock rallies slightly. We are going to roll to July (16th) 100 calls.\nLong 2 expiring SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. Since the signal is still intact (barely), sell this spread and replace it by buying 2 SPY July (9th) at-the-money calls. We are no longer using a spread here. The calls would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices). Today, that would be a close over 19.39. Meanwhile, if the positionisstopped out, a new “spike peak” buy signal will set up shortly.\nLong 1 expiring KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:This takeover bid has not worked out well. Sell these calls and do not replace them.\nLong 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPX trades at 437, roll up the calls from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll down the puts to the 403 strike.\nLong 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:The takeover rumors were rampant again this past week – on June 14. Roll to theJuly (16th) 80 calls.\nLong 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Cornerstone OnDemand closed above 47, which it did on June 4. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 48.00.\nLong 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Dropbox closed above 28.50, which it did on June 7. This is also an “activist investor” situation. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 27.80.\nLong 6 CVA July (16th) 17.5 calls:Hold without a stop, while the rumor of the company pursuing strategic alternatives has a chance to work out.\nLong 4 SDC July (16th) 9 calls:Option volume remains modestly heavy as takeover rumors continue to circulate. Hold without a stop.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2638,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":168776217,"gmtCreate":1623984827239,"gmtModify":1634024672992,"author":{"id":"3583036752853589","authorId":"3583036752853589","name":"Pixieponies","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b41d4c73bb602c4f7e17b0108275e8a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583036752853589","authorIdStr":"3583036752853589"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wowwww ","listText":"Wowwww ","text":"Wowwww","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168776217","repostId":"1169452580","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169452580","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623976154,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1169452580?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 08:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"As the S&P 500 falters, this is what it will take to revive the bull market<blockquote>随着标普500步履蹒跚，这就是重振牛市的方法</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169452580","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The stock market’s key level is 4190\nRunning with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/","content":"<p>The stock market’s key level is 4190</p><p><blockquote>股市关键位4190</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3f4a1dc768fe79cb0fda59c2aa0b93f\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"961\"><span>Running with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>和公牛一起跑步会让人筋疲力尽。法新社/盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Over the past two weeks, the S&P 500 index has been attempting to break out to the upside. The previous highs at 4238 were registered in early May, and while SPX did close or trade above 4238 for five straight days, there was no follow-through. Now the nervousness brought about by the Federal Reserve meeting has caused the index to fall back below that level.</p><p><blockquote>过去两周，标普500指数一直试图向上突破。之前的高点4238点是在5月初创下的，虽然SPX确实连续五天收盘或交易在4238点上方，但没有后续行动。现在美联储会议带来的紧张情绪导致指数回落至该水平以下。</blockquote></p><p> I wouldn’t classify this as a “false breakout” yet, but it’s pretty close to being one.</p><p><blockquote>我还不会把这归类为“假突破”，但它已经非常接近了。</blockquote></p><p> SPX has been trading in a tight range since May 24, and it seems to have been pulled back into that range. A close below 4190 would be a close below the bottom of that range, and<i>that</i>would be the completion of a “false breakout,” in my opinion.</p><p><blockquote>自5月24日以来，SPX一直在窄幅区间内交易，目前似乎已被拉回该区间。收盘价低于4190点将是收盘价低于该区间底部，并且<i>那个</i>在我看来，这将是一次“假突破”的完成。</blockquote></p><p> A failure at that level would bring about the specter of a retracement all the way to the bottom of the larger trading range – to the May lows at 4060. A failure of that level would be much more dire and might be the issuance of a new bear market.</p><p><blockquote>在该水平上的失败将带来回撤的幽灵，一直到更大交易区间的底部——到5月份的低点4060点。未能达到这一水平将更加可怕，可能会引发新的熊市。</blockquote></p><p> But before getting carried away with dire predictions, it should be noted that the bears have had many, many chances to take control – especially since last December – and have failed to do so every time. It is still the case that the return to new all-time highs, via a breakout over what is now a rather condensed resistance area from 4238 up to the recent new highs at 4257, would return clear control to the bulls.</p><p><blockquote>但在被可怕的预测冲昏头脑之前，应该指出的是，空头有很多很多次机会控制局面——尤其是自去年12月以来——但每次都失败了。情况仍然是，通过突破从4238点到最近的新高4257点的相当集中的阻力区，回到历史新高，将使多头明确控制。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05764c1c1d52ace424d326a7a0b116d\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"694\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>劳伦斯·麦克米兰</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The limited movement that has been seen by SPX since May 24 has had the effect of drastically dropping the realized, or historical volatility (HV). The S&P’s 20-day HV is now down to 7% (a rise back above 11% would be a sell signal, but that’s not imminent).</p><p><blockquote>SPX自5月24日以来的有限波动导致已实现或历史波动率(HV)大幅下降。S&P的20天HV现已降至7%（回升至11%以上将是卖出信号，但这不会迫在眉睫）。</blockquote></p><p> In turn, this drop in realized volatility has caused the “modified Bollinger Bands” (mBB) to tighten about the S&P’s still-rising 20-day Moving Average. The McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal of early May is still in effect. It will either be stopped out by rising above the +4σ Band, or it will reach its target by touching the -4σ Band. Both of those are now more likely, since the Bands are constricting.</p><p><blockquote>反过来，实际波动率的下降导致“修正布林线”（mBB）收紧标准普尔仍在上涨的20日移动平均线。5月初的麦克米兰波动带(MVB)卖出信号仍然有效。它要么通过升至+4 σ波段以上而被止损，要么通过触及-4 σ波段而达到目标。这两种情况现在都更有可能发生，因为波段正在收缩。</blockquote></p><p> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. They turned downward, issuing those buy signals, in late May. Call buying has remained relatively heavy since then, forcing those ratios lower. As long as they are declining, that is a bullish sign for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率仍处于买入信号。他们在五月下旬转向下行，发出了买入信号。自那以来，看涨期权的购买量一直相对较大，迫使这些比率下降。只要它们在下跌，这对股票来说就是看涨的信号。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7df3290d0ca5e563bba9819c21394cd9\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>劳伦斯·麦克米兰</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cfe716af41c1797bbb147a441d73df0\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"692\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>劳伦斯·麦克米兰</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Breadth has been something of a problem. While our breadth oscillators did issue buy signal on May 13, they never really expanded as SPX was making those new all-time highs recently. That is not a good sign, and now breadth has been negative for the last three trading days. This is enough to roll the “stocks only” breadth oscillator over to a sell signal.</p><p><blockquote>广度一直是个问题。虽然我们的广度振荡指标确实在5月13日发出了买入信号，但随着SPX最近创下历史新高，它们从未真正扩大。这不是一个好兆头，现在广度在过去三个交易日一直为负。这足以将“仅股票”宽度振荡器滚动为卖出信号。</blockquote></p><p> The NYSE breadth oscillator is not yet in agreement, but one more day of negative breadth today would force that onto a sell signal as well.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标尚未达成一致，但今天再出现一天的负宽度也将迫使其发出卖出信号。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, the cumulative breadth indicators had been making new all-time highs along with SPX, but as readers of mine should know, I do not consider that predictive. It only means that a negative divergence is not in place. Even so, not every market top has a negative divergence. So, for now, breadth has become something of a problem.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，累积宽度指标与SPX一起创下历史新高，但正如我的读者应该知道的那样，我不认为这是预测性的。这只意味着负背离不到位。即便如此，并不是每个市场顶部都有负背离。所以，就目前而言，广度已经成为一个问题。</blockquote></p><p> The measure of new 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows, however, is not a problem as far as the bulls are concerned. New highs continue to dominate new lows across all three data sets. So, this indicator remains bullish.</p><p><blockquote>然而，对于多头来说，衡量52周新高与52周新低并不是问题。在所有三个数据集中，新高继续主导新低。因此，该指标仍然看涨。</blockquote></p><p> Volatility and volatility derivatives have remained in the bullish camp for most of the last year, and they are still there. VIX has not returned to “spiking” mode (a gain of 3.00 or more points, using closing prices, over any three-day time frame). Thus, the “spike peak” buy signal of May 21 remains intact. Meanwhile, the trend of the VIX chart is still lower, as VIX is well below its declining 200-day moving average, and so is the 20-day MA.</p><p><blockquote>波动率和波动率衍生品在去年的大部分时间里都保持在看涨阵营，现在仍然如此。VIX尚未回到“飙升”模式（使用收盘价，在任何三天时间范围内上涨3.00点或更多）。因此，5月21日的“峰值”买入信号保持不变。与此同时，VIX图表的趋势仍然走低，因为VIX远低于其下降的200日移动平均线，20日均线也是如此。</blockquote></p><p> The construct of volatility derivatives remains bullish for stocks. That is, the VIX futures (of which July is now the front month) are all trading at fairly large premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. Likewise, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward, too. Those are all bullish signs for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构仍然看好股市。也就是说，VIX期货（现在是7月的前一个月）的交易价格都相对于VIX有相当大的溢价，并且它们的期限结构向上倾斜。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构也向上倾斜。这些都是股市看涨的迹象。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c7a9b8266644b877085c11cc2429a6\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"690\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>劳伦斯·麦克米兰</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In summary, the indicators are still mostly positive, so as long as the S&P 500 can remain above 4190, we are still bullish. As confirmed sell signals may arise, we will trade them around the essentially “core” bullish position.</p><p><blockquote>综上，指标还是偏多，所以只要标普500能维持在4190以上，我们还是看涨的。由于可能出现确认的卖出信号，我们将围绕本质上“核心”看涨位置进行交易。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New recommendation: SPX upside breakout</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新建议：SPX上行突破</b></blockquote></p><p> Should SPX recover and make new all-time highs, we want to take a corresponding long position.</p><p><blockquote>如果SPX恢复并创下历史新高，我们希望建立相应的多头头寸。</blockquote></p><p> <b>IF SPX closes above 4260,</b></p><p><blockquote><b>如果SPX收于4260上方，</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>THEN buy 2 SPY July (16th) at-the-money calls.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>然后购买2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）平价评级。</b></blockquote></p><p> SPX: 4223</p><p><blockquote>SPX：4223</blockquote></p><p> NOTE: We are not use a call bull spread for this recommendation, since VIX is low enough (and will likely be lower if SPX makes new all-time highs) that the spread is not necessary. Call bull spreads, as opposed to outright long call positions, are only called for when volatility is high (i.e., when the options are “over-priced”). That is not the case any longer.</p><p><blockquote>注意：我们在此建议中不使用看涨期权牛市价差，因为VIX足够低（如果SPX创下历史新高，可能会更低），因此没有必要使用价差。与直接多头看涨期权头寸相反，看涨期权牛市价差仅在波动性较高时（即当期权“定价过高”时）才需要。现在情况不再是这样了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New Recommendation: Rapt Therapeutics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新推荐：Rapt Therapeutics</b></blockquote></p><p> This past week, there has been unusual option volume in a number of areas, but not so much in takeover rumors. There was heavy volume in a couple of the new SPAC mergers – Churchill Capital Corp. and GS Acquisition Holdings Corp.Those are typically overdone in the first few days after the mergers are announced. There was also heavy option volume in Petco Health & Wellness Co.,but that seem to be related to the social media message boards – a dubious reason for buying a stock.</p><p><blockquote>过去一周，许多领域的期权交易量都出现了异常，但收购传闻却没有那么多。丘吉尔资本公司(Churchill Capital Corp.)和GS Acquisition Holdings Corp.)的几起新的SPAC合并交易量很大。在合并宣布后的头几天，这些行为通常会过度。Petco Health&Wellness Co.的期权交易量也很大，但这似乎与社交媒体留言板有关——这是购买股票的可疑原因。</blockquote></p><p> However, in Rapt Therapeutics,there was a major drug announcement in the form of the results of a positive trial for a drug for eczema. Apparently, there is major potential for such a drug. The stock exploded from 19 to 42 in one day but has now pulled back to 31. This is a highly aggressive recommendation, but at least with a call option purchase, you know what your risk is – the cost of the call.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在Rapt Therapeutics中，有一个重大的药物公告，其形式是一种治疗湿疹的药物的阳性试验结果。显然，这种药物有很大的潜力。该股一天内从19点飙升至42点，但现在已回落至31点。这是一个非常激进的建议，但至少在购买看涨期权期权时，您知道您的风险是什么——看涨期权的成本。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Buy 1 RAPT July (16th) 30 call</b></p><p><blockquote><b>购买1 RAPT 7月（16日）30看涨期权</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>At a price of 5.00 or less.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>价格为5.00或更低。</b></blockquote></p><p> RAPT: 31.90 July (16th) 30 call: 4.50 bid, offered at 5.00</p><p><blockquote>RAPT：31.90 7月（16日）30看涨期权：4.50出价，报价5.00</blockquote></p><p> If the call is bought, stop yourself out on a close below 26 by RAPT, for that would close that gap from last December and would not be in line with a bullish outlook.</p><p><blockquote>如果看涨期权被买入，请在收盘价低于26时止损，因为这将缩小与去年12月的差距，并且不符合看涨前景。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b63b8c6a70a7ad7227974855bc6355a7\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"690\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>劳伦斯·麦克米兰</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Follow-up action</b></p><p><blockquote><b>后续行动</b></blockquote></p><p> <b><i>All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>除非另有说明，所有停止都是精神关闭停止。</i></b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 2 SPY July (2nd) 410 puts:</b>This trade was originally taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4280 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band, which is currently at 4135 and rising.</p><p><blockquote><b>多头2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（2日）410看跌期权：</b>这笔交易最初是因为5月12日出现的MVB卖出信号而进行的。它将被SPX再次收于+4 σ波段上方止损，该波段位于4280点并横盘整理。如果SPX交易在-4 σ区间，该信号将达到其利润目标，目前该区间为4135点且正在上升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 3 expiring DUK June (18th) 100 calls:</b>There has not been any news on the activist investor in Duke Energy except for the fact that option volume picks up whenever the stock rallies slightly. We are going to roll to <b>July (16th) 100 calls.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>龙3到期DUK 6月（18日）100评级：</b>除了每当该股小幅上涨时期权交易量就会增加之外，目前还没有任何关于杜克能源激进投资者的消息。我们要滚到<b>7月（16日）100评级。</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 2 expiring SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:</b>This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. Since the signal is still intact (barely), sell this spread and replace it by buying 2 SPY July (9th) at-the-money calls. We are no longer using a spread here. The calls would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices). Today, that would be a close over 19.39. Meanwhile, if the position<i>is</i>stopped out, a new “spike peak” buy signal will set up shortly.</p><p><blockquote><b>多2到期SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（18日）415评级空2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（18日）428评级：</b>该价差是在5月21日最新的VIX“尖峰”买入信号得到确认时买入的。由于信号仍然完好无损（勉强），卖出这个价差，换成买入2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（9日）平价评级。我们在这里不再使用跨页。如果VIX回到飙升模式——也就是说，如果它在任何三天或更短的时间内上涨至少3.00点（使用收盘价），评级将被阻止。今天，收盘价将超过19.39。同时，如果持仓<i>是</i>止损后，新的“尖峰”买入信号将很快建立。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 1 expiring KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:</b>This takeover bid has not worked out well. Sell these calls and do not replace them.</p><p><blockquote><b>长1到期KSU 6月（18日）300看涨期权：</b>这次收购并不顺利。出售这些评级，不要更换它们。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:</b>This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPX trades at 437, roll up the calls from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll down the puts to the 403 strike.</p><p><blockquote><b>做多1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）420看涨期权和做多1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）420看跌：</b>这种多头跨式交易是在预期SPX将从420水平波动移动的情况下进行的。如果SPX交易价格为437，则将评级从420点向上滚动至437点（或最接近该点的点）。相反，如果SPX交易价格为403，则将看跌期权滚降至403。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:</b>The takeover rumors were rampant again this past week – on June 14. Roll to the<b>July (16th) 80 calls.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>龙4 CERN 6月（18日）80评级：</b>过去一周——6月14日——收购传闻再次甚嚣尘上。滚动到<b>7月（16日）80评级。</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls:</b>Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Cornerstone OnDemand closed above 47, which it did on June 4. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 48.00.</p><p><blockquote><b>龙4 CSOD 7月（16日）47.5评级：</b>我们的建议是，如果Cornerstone OnDemand收盘价高于47点（6月4日），则买入这些评级。将尾随收盘止损提高至48.00。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls:</b>Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Dropbox closed above 28.50, which it did on June 7. This is also an “activist investor” situation. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 27.80.</p><p><blockquote><b>龙4 DBX 7月（16日）28日评级：</b>我们的建议是，如果Dropbox收盘价高于28.50（6月7日），则买入这些评级。这也是一种“维权投资者”的情况。将尾随收盘止损提高至27.80。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Long 6 CVA July (16th) 17.5 calls:</b>Hold without a stop, while the rumor of the company pursuing strategic alternatives has a chance to work out.</p><p><blockquote><b>龙6 CVA 7月（16日）17.5评级：</b>不停地持有，而该公司寻求战略替代方案的传言有机会得到解决。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 4 SDC July (16th) 9 calls:</b>Option volume remains modestly heavy as takeover rumors continue to circulate. Hold without a stop.</p><p><blockquote><b>龙4 SDC 7月（16日）9评级：</b>随着收购传闻继续流传，期权交易量仍然适度偏高。不停地坚持。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>As the S&P 500 falters, this is what it will take to revive the bull market<blockquote>随着标普500步履蹒跚，这就是重振牛市的方法</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAs the S&P 500 falters, this is what it will take to revive the bull market<blockquote>随着标普500步履蹒跚，这就是重振牛市的方法</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 08:29</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The stock market’s key level is 4190</p><p><blockquote>股市关键位4190</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3f4a1dc768fe79cb0fda59c2aa0b93f\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"961\"><span>Running with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>和公牛一起跑步会让人筋疲力尽。法新社/盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Over the past two weeks, the S&P 500 index has been attempting to break out to the upside. The previous highs at 4238 were registered in early May, and while SPX did close or trade above 4238 for five straight days, there was no follow-through. Now the nervousness brought about by the Federal Reserve meeting has caused the index to fall back below that level.</p><p><blockquote>过去两周，标普500指数一直试图向上突破。之前的高点4238点是在5月初创下的，虽然SPX确实连续五天收盘或交易在4238点上方，但没有后续行动。现在美联储会议带来的紧张情绪导致指数回落至该水平以下。</blockquote></p><p> I wouldn’t classify this as a “false breakout” yet, but it’s pretty close to being one.</p><p><blockquote>我还不会把这归类为“假突破”，但它已经非常接近了。</blockquote></p><p> SPX has been trading in a tight range since May 24, and it seems to have been pulled back into that range. A close below 4190 would be a close below the bottom of that range, and<i>that</i>would be the completion of a “false breakout,” in my opinion.</p><p><blockquote>自5月24日以来，SPX一直在窄幅区间内交易，目前似乎已被拉回该区间。收盘价低于4190点将是收盘价低于该区间底部，并且<i>那个</i>在我看来，这将是一次“假突破”的完成。</blockquote></p><p> A failure at that level would bring about the specter of a retracement all the way to the bottom of the larger trading range – to the May lows at 4060. A failure of that level would be much more dire and might be the issuance of a new bear market.</p><p><blockquote>在该水平上的失败将带来回撤的幽灵，一直到更大交易区间的底部——到5月份的低点4060点。未能达到这一水平将更加可怕，可能会引发新的熊市。</blockquote></p><p> But before getting carried away with dire predictions, it should be noted that the bears have had many, many chances to take control – especially since last December – and have failed to do so every time. It is still the case that the return to new all-time highs, via a breakout over what is now a rather condensed resistance area from 4238 up to the recent new highs at 4257, would return clear control to the bulls.</p><p><blockquote>但在被可怕的预测冲昏头脑之前，应该指出的是，空头有很多很多次机会控制局面——尤其是自去年12月以来——但每次都失败了。情况仍然是，通过突破从4238点到最近的新高4257点的相当集中的阻力区，回到历史新高，将使多头明确控制。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05764c1c1d52ace424d326a7a0b116d\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"694\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>劳伦斯·麦克米兰</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The limited movement that has been seen by SPX since May 24 has had the effect of drastically dropping the realized, or historical volatility (HV). The S&P’s 20-day HV is now down to 7% (a rise back above 11% would be a sell signal, but that’s not imminent).</p><p><blockquote>SPX自5月24日以来的有限波动导致已实现或历史波动率(HV)大幅下降。S&P的20天HV现已降至7%（回升至11%以上将是卖出信号，但这不会迫在眉睫）。</blockquote></p><p> In turn, this drop in realized volatility has caused the “modified Bollinger Bands” (mBB) to tighten about the S&P’s still-rising 20-day Moving Average. The McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal of early May is still in effect. It will either be stopped out by rising above the +4σ Band, or it will reach its target by touching the -4σ Band. Both of those are now more likely, since the Bands are constricting.</p><p><blockquote>反过来，实际波动率的下降导致“修正布林线”（mBB）收紧标准普尔仍在上涨的20日移动平均线。5月初的麦克米兰波动带(MVB)卖出信号仍然有效。它要么通过升至+4 σ波段以上而被止损，要么通过触及-4 σ波段而达到目标。这两种情况现在都更有可能发生，因为波段正在收缩。</blockquote></p><p> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. They turned downward, issuing those buy signals, in late May. Call buying has remained relatively heavy since then, forcing those ratios lower. As long as they are declining, that is a bullish sign for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率仍处于买入信号。他们在五月下旬转向下行，发出了买入信号。自那以来，看涨期权的购买量一直相对较大，迫使这些比率下降。只要它们在下跌，这对股票来说就是看涨的信号。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7df3290d0ca5e563bba9819c21394cd9\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>劳伦斯·麦克米兰</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cfe716af41c1797bbb147a441d73df0\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"692\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>劳伦斯·麦克米兰</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Breadth has been something of a problem. While our breadth oscillators did issue buy signal on May 13, they never really expanded as SPX was making those new all-time highs recently. That is not a good sign, and now breadth has been negative for the last three trading days. This is enough to roll the “stocks only” breadth oscillator over to a sell signal.</p><p><blockquote>广度一直是个问题。虽然我们的广度振荡指标确实在5月13日发出了买入信号，但随着SPX最近创下历史新高，它们从未真正扩大。这不是一个好兆头，现在广度在过去三个交易日一直为负。这足以将“仅股票”宽度振荡器滚动为卖出信号。</blockquote></p><p> The NYSE breadth oscillator is not yet in agreement, but one more day of negative breadth today would force that onto a sell signal as well.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标尚未达成一致，但今天再出现一天的负宽度也将迫使其发出卖出信号。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, the cumulative breadth indicators had been making new all-time highs along with SPX, but as readers of mine should know, I do not consider that predictive. It only means that a negative divergence is not in place. Even so, not every market top has a negative divergence. So, for now, breadth has become something of a problem.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，累积宽度指标与SPX一起创下历史新高，但正如我的读者应该知道的那样，我不认为这是预测性的。这只意味着负背离不到位。即便如此，并不是每个市场顶部都有负背离。所以，就目前而言，广度已经成为一个问题。</blockquote></p><p> The measure of new 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows, however, is not a problem as far as the bulls are concerned. New highs continue to dominate new lows across all three data sets. So, this indicator remains bullish.</p><p><blockquote>然而，对于多头来说，衡量52周新高与52周新低并不是问题。在所有三个数据集中，新高继续主导新低。因此，该指标仍然看涨。</blockquote></p><p> Volatility and volatility derivatives have remained in the bullish camp for most of the last year, and they are still there. VIX has not returned to “spiking” mode (a gain of 3.00 or more points, using closing prices, over any three-day time frame). Thus, the “spike peak” buy signal of May 21 remains intact. Meanwhile, the trend of the VIX chart is still lower, as VIX is well below its declining 200-day moving average, and so is the 20-day MA.</p><p><blockquote>波动率和波动率衍生品在去年的大部分时间里都保持在看涨阵营，现在仍然如此。VIX尚未回到“飙升”模式（使用收盘价，在任何三天时间范围内上涨3.00点或更多）。因此，5月21日的“峰值”买入信号保持不变。与此同时，VIX图表的趋势仍然走低，因为VIX远低于其下降的200日移动平均线，20日均线也是如此。</blockquote></p><p> The construct of volatility derivatives remains bullish for stocks. That is, the VIX futures (of which July is now the front month) are all trading at fairly large premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. Likewise, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward, too. Those are all bullish signs for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构仍然看好股市。也就是说，VIX期货（现在是7月的前一个月）的交易价格都相对于VIX有相当大的溢价，并且它们的期限结构向上倾斜。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构也向上倾斜。这些都是股市看涨的迹象。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c7a9b8266644b877085c11cc2429a6\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"690\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>劳伦斯·麦克米兰</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In summary, the indicators are still mostly positive, so as long as the S&P 500 can remain above 4190, we are still bullish. As confirmed sell signals may arise, we will trade them around the essentially “core” bullish position.</p><p><blockquote>综上，指标还是偏多，所以只要标普500能维持在4190以上，我们还是看涨的。由于可能出现确认的卖出信号，我们将围绕本质上“核心”看涨位置进行交易。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New recommendation: SPX upside breakout</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新建议：SPX上行突破</b></blockquote></p><p> Should SPX recover and make new all-time highs, we want to take a corresponding long position.</p><p><blockquote>如果SPX恢复并创下历史新高，我们希望建立相应的多头头寸。</blockquote></p><p> <b>IF SPX closes above 4260,</b></p><p><blockquote><b>如果SPX收于4260上方，</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>THEN buy 2 SPY July (16th) at-the-money calls.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>然后购买2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）平价评级。</b></blockquote></p><p> SPX: 4223</p><p><blockquote>SPX：4223</blockquote></p><p> NOTE: We are not use a call bull spread for this recommendation, since VIX is low enough (and will likely be lower if SPX makes new all-time highs) that the spread is not necessary. Call bull spreads, as opposed to outright long call positions, are only called for when volatility is high (i.e., when the options are “over-priced”). That is not the case any longer.</p><p><blockquote>注意：我们在此建议中不使用看涨期权牛市价差，因为VIX足够低（如果SPX创下历史新高，可能会更低），因此没有必要使用价差。与直接多头看涨期权头寸相反，看涨期权牛市价差仅在波动性较高时（即当期权“定价过高”时）才需要。现在情况不再是这样了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New Recommendation: Rapt Therapeutics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新推荐：Rapt Therapeutics</b></blockquote></p><p> This past week, there has been unusual option volume in a number of areas, but not so much in takeover rumors. There was heavy volume in a couple of the new SPAC mergers – Churchill Capital Corp. and GS Acquisition Holdings Corp.Those are typically overdone in the first few days after the mergers are announced. There was also heavy option volume in Petco Health & Wellness Co.,but that seem to be related to the social media message boards – a dubious reason for buying a stock.</p><p><blockquote>过去一周，许多领域的期权交易量都出现了异常，但收购传闻却没有那么多。丘吉尔资本公司(Churchill Capital Corp.)和GS Acquisition Holdings Corp.)的几起新的SPAC合并交易量很大。在合并宣布后的头几天，这些行为通常会过度。Petco Health&Wellness Co.的期权交易量也很大，但这似乎与社交媒体留言板有关——这是购买股票的可疑原因。</blockquote></p><p> However, in Rapt Therapeutics,there was a major drug announcement in the form of the results of a positive trial for a drug for eczema. Apparently, there is major potential for such a drug. The stock exploded from 19 to 42 in one day but has now pulled back to 31. This is a highly aggressive recommendation, but at least with a call option purchase, you know what your risk is – the cost of the call.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在Rapt Therapeutics中，有一个重大的药物公告，其形式是一种治疗湿疹的药物的阳性试验结果。显然，这种药物有很大的潜力。该股一天内从19点飙升至42点，但现在已回落至31点。这是一个非常激进的建议，但至少在购买看涨期权期权时，您知道您的风险是什么——看涨期权的成本。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Buy 1 RAPT July (16th) 30 call</b></p><p><blockquote><b>购买1 RAPT 7月（16日）30看涨期权</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>At a price of 5.00 or less.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>价格为5.00或更低。</b></blockquote></p><p> RAPT: 31.90 July (16th) 30 call: 4.50 bid, offered at 5.00</p><p><blockquote>RAPT：31.90 7月（16日）30看涨期权：4.50出价，报价5.00</blockquote></p><p> If the call is bought, stop yourself out on a close below 26 by RAPT, for that would close that gap from last December and would not be in line with a bullish outlook.</p><p><blockquote>如果看涨期权被买入，请在收盘价低于26时止损，因为这将缩小与去年12月的差距，并且不符合看涨前景。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b63b8c6a70a7ad7227974855bc6355a7\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"690\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>劳伦斯·麦克米兰</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Follow-up action</b></p><p><blockquote><b>后续行动</b></blockquote></p><p> <b><i>All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>除非另有说明，所有停止都是精神关闭停止。</i></b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 2 SPY July (2nd) 410 puts:</b>This trade was originally taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4280 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band, which is currently at 4135 and rising.</p><p><blockquote><b>多头2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（2日）410看跌期权：</b>这笔交易最初是因为5月12日出现的MVB卖出信号而进行的。它将被SPX再次收于+4 σ波段上方止损，该波段位于4280点并横盘整理。如果SPX交易在-4 σ区间，该信号将达到其利润目标，目前该区间为4135点且正在上升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 3 expiring DUK June (18th) 100 calls:</b>There has not been any news on the activist investor in Duke Energy except for the fact that option volume picks up whenever the stock rallies slightly. We are going to roll to <b>July (16th) 100 calls.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>龙3到期DUK 6月（18日）100评级：</b>除了每当该股小幅上涨时期权交易量就会增加之外，目前还没有任何关于杜克能源激进投资者的消息。我们要滚到<b>7月（16日）100评级。</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 2 expiring SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:</b>This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. Since the signal is still intact (barely), sell this spread and replace it by buying 2 SPY July (9th) at-the-money calls. We are no longer using a spread here. The calls would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices). Today, that would be a close over 19.39. Meanwhile, if the position<i>is</i>stopped out, a new “spike peak” buy signal will set up shortly.</p><p><blockquote><b>多2到期SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（18日）415评级空2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（18日）428评级：</b>该价差是在5月21日最新的VIX“尖峰”买入信号得到确认时买入的。由于信号仍然完好无损（勉强），卖出这个价差，换成买入2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（9日）平价评级。我们在这里不再使用跨页。如果VIX回到飙升模式——也就是说，如果它在任何三天或更短的时间内上涨至少3.00点（使用收盘价），评级将被阻止。今天，收盘价将超过19.39。同时，如果持仓<i>是</i>止损后，新的“尖峰”买入信号将很快建立。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 1 expiring KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:</b>This takeover bid has not worked out well. Sell these calls and do not replace them.</p><p><blockquote><b>长1到期KSU 6月（18日）300看涨期权：</b>这次收购并不顺利。出售这些评级，不要更换它们。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:</b>This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPX trades at 437, roll up the calls from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll down the puts to the 403 strike.</p><p><blockquote><b>做多1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）420看涨期权和做多1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）420看跌：</b>这种多头跨式交易是在预期SPX将从420水平波动移动的情况下进行的。如果SPX交易价格为437，则将评级从420点向上滚动至437点（或最接近该点的点）。相反，如果SPX交易价格为403，则将看跌期权滚降至403。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:</b>The takeover rumors were rampant again this past week – on June 14. Roll to the<b>July (16th) 80 calls.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>龙4 CERN 6月（18日）80评级：</b>过去一周——6月14日——收购传闻再次甚嚣尘上。滚动到<b>7月（16日）80评级。</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls:</b>Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Cornerstone OnDemand closed above 47, which it did on June 4. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 48.00.</p><p><blockquote><b>龙4 CSOD 7月（16日）47.5评级：</b>我们的建议是，如果Cornerstone OnDemand收盘价高于47点（6月4日），则买入这些评级。将尾随收盘止损提高至48.00。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls:</b>Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Dropbox closed above 28.50, which it did on June 7. This is also an “activist investor” situation. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 27.80.</p><p><blockquote><b>龙4 DBX 7月（16日）28日评级：</b>我们的建议是，如果Dropbox收盘价高于28.50（6月7日），则买入这些评级。这也是一种“维权投资者”的情况。将尾随收盘止损提高至27.80。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Long 6 CVA July (16th) 17.5 calls:</b>Hold without a stop, while the rumor of the company pursuing strategic alternatives has a chance to work out.</p><p><blockquote><b>龙6 CVA 7月（16日）17.5评级：</b>不停地持有，而该公司寻求战略替代方案的传言有机会得到解决。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 4 SDC July (16th) 9 calls:</b>Option volume remains modestly heavy as takeover rumors continue to circulate. Hold without a stop.</p><p><blockquote><b>龙4 SDC 7月（16日）9评级：</b>随着收购传闻继续流传，期权交易量仍然适度偏高。不停地坚持。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-falters-this-is-what-it-will-take-to-revive-the-bull-market-11623942534?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-falters-this-is-what-it-will-take-to-revive-the-bull-market-11623942534?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169452580","content_text":"The stock market’s key level is 4190\nRunning with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES\nOver the past two weeks, the S&P 500 index has been attempting to break out to the upside. The previous highs at 4238 were registered in early May, and while SPX did close or trade above 4238 for five straight days, there was no follow-through. Now the nervousness brought about by the Federal Reserve meeting has caused the index to fall back below that level.\nI wouldn’t classify this as a “false breakout” yet, but it’s pretty close to being one.\nSPX has been trading in a tight range since May 24, and it seems to have been pulled back into that range. A close below 4190 would be a close below the bottom of that range, andthatwould be the completion of a “false breakout,” in my opinion.\nA failure at that level would bring about the specter of a retracement all the way to the bottom of the larger trading range – to the May lows at 4060. A failure of that level would be much more dire and might be the issuance of a new bear market.\nBut before getting carried away with dire predictions, it should be noted that the bears have had many, many chances to take control – especially since last December – and have failed to do so every time. It is still the case that the return to new all-time highs, via a breakout over what is now a rather condensed resistance area from 4238 up to the recent new highs at 4257, would return clear control to the bulls.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nThe limited movement that has been seen by SPX since May 24 has had the effect of drastically dropping the realized, or historical volatility (HV). The S&P’s 20-day HV is now down to 7% (a rise back above 11% would be a sell signal, but that’s not imminent).\nIn turn, this drop in realized volatility has caused the “modified Bollinger Bands” (mBB) to tighten about the S&P’s still-rising 20-day Moving Average. The McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal of early May is still in effect. It will either be stopped out by rising above the +4σ Band, or it will reach its target by touching the -4σ Band. Both of those are now more likely, since the Bands are constricting.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. They turned downward, issuing those buy signals, in late May. Call buying has remained relatively heavy since then, forcing those ratios lower. As long as they are declining, that is a bullish sign for stocks.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has been something of a problem. While our breadth oscillators did issue buy signal on May 13, they never really expanded as SPX was making those new all-time highs recently. That is not a good sign, and now breadth has been negative for the last three trading days. This is enough to roll the “stocks only” breadth oscillator over to a sell signal.\nThe NYSE breadth oscillator is not yet in agreement, but one more day of negative breadth today would force that onto a sell signal as well.\nMeanwhile, the cumulative breadth indicators had been making new all-time highs along with SPX, but as readers of mine should know, I do not consider that predictive. It only means that a negative divergence is not in place. Even so, not every market top has a negative divergence. So, for now, breadth has become something of a problem.\nThe measure of new 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows, however, is not a problem as far as the bulls are concerned. New highs continue to dominate new lows across all three data sets. So, this indicator remains bullish.\nVolatility and volatility derivatives have remained in the bullish camp for most of the last year, and they are still there. VIX has not returned to “spiking” mode (a gain of 3.00 or more points, using closing prices, over any three-day time frame). Thus, the “spike peak” buy signal of May 21 remains intact. Meanwhile, the trend of the VIX chart is still lower, as VIX is well below its declining 200-day moving average, and so is the 20-day MA.\nThe construct of volatility derivatives remains bullish for stocks. That is, the VIX futures (of which July is now the front month) are all trading at fairly large premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. Likewise, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward, too. Those are all bullish signs for stocks.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nIn summary, the indicators are still mostly positive, so as long as the S&P 500 can remain above 4190, we are still bullish. As confirmed sell signals may arise, we will trade them around the essentially “core” bullish position.\nNew recommendation: SPX upside breakout\nShould SPX recover and make new all-time highs, we want to take a corresponding long position.\nIF SPX closes above 4260,\nTHEN buy 2 SPY July (16th) at-the-money calls.\nSPX: 4223\nNOTE: We are not use a call bull spread for this recommendation, since VIX is low enough (and will likely be lower if SPX makes new all-time highs) that the spread is not necessary. Call bull spreads, as opposed to outright long call positions, are only called for when volatility is high (i.e., when the options are “over-priced”). That is not the case any longer.\nNew Recommendation: Rapt Therapeutics\nThis past week, there has been unusual option volume in a number of areas, but not so much in takeover rumors. There was heavy volume in a couple of the new SPAC mergers – Churchill Capital Corp. and GS Acquisition Holdings Corp.Those are typically overdone in the first few days after the mergers are announced. There was also heavy option volume in Petco Health & Wellness Co.,but that seem to be related to the social media message boards – a dubious reason for buying a stock.\nHowever, in Rapt Therapeutics,there was a major drug announcement in the form of the results of a positive trial for a drug for eczema. Apparently, there is major potential for such a drug. The stock exploded from 19 to 42 in one day but has now pulled back to 31. This is a highly aggressive recommendation, but at least with a call option purchase, you know what your risk is – the cost of the call.\nBuy 1 RAPT July (16th) 30 call\nAt a price of 5.00 or less.\nRAPT: 31.90 July (16th) 30 call: 4.50 bid, offered at 5.00\nIf the call is bought, stop yourself out on a close below 26 by RAPT, for that would close that gap from last December and would not be in line with a bullish outlook.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nFollow-up action\nAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.\nLong 2 SPY July (2nd) 410 puts:This trade was originally taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4280 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band, which is currently at 4135 and rising.\nLong 3 expiring DUK June (18th) 100 calls:There has not been any news on the activist investor in Duke Energy except for the fact that option volume picks up whenever the stock rallies slightly. We are going to roll to July (16th) 100 calls.\nLong 2 expiring SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. Since the signal is still intact (barely), sell this spread and replace it by buying 2 SPY July (9th) at-the-money calls. We are no longer using a spread here. The calls would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices). Today, that would be a close over 19.39. Meanwhile, if the positionisstopped out, a new “spike peak” buy signal will set up shortly.\nLong 1 expiring KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:This takeover bid has not worked out well. Sell these calls and do not replace them.\nLong 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPX trades at 437, roll up the calls from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll down the puts to the 403 strike.\nLong 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:The takeover rumors were rampant again this past week – on June 14. Roll to theJuly (16th) 80 calls.\nLong 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Cornerstone OnDemand closed above 47, which it did on June 4. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 48.00.\nLong 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Dropbox closed above 28.50, which it did on June 7. This is also an “activist investor” situation. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 27.80.\nLong 6 CVA July (16th) 17.5 calls:Hold without a stop, while the rumor of the company pursuing strategic alternatives has a chance to work out.\nLong 4 SDC July (16th) 9 calls:Option volume remains modestly heavy as takeover rumors continue to circulate. Hold without a stop.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2638,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
