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2021-08-19

Sksksk

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2021-08-18

Djdjdj

U.S. stock market opens lower Wednesday as Wall Street watches for Fed minutes<blockquote>华尔街关注美联储会议纪要，美国股市周三低开</blockquote>

2021-08-17

Jsjsjs

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2021-08-16

Jdjdje

Some vaccine stocks fell in morning trading<blockquote>部分疫苗股早盘下跌</blockquote>

2021-07-31

Ajajaj

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2021-07-30

Wowowow

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2021-07-29

Jsjsj

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2021-07-28

Hshshs

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2021-07-27

Kdkdkkd

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2021-07-26

Lell

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2021-07-25

Keke

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2021-07-24

Jsjsj

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2021-07-23

Lol

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2021-07-22

Lel

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2021-07-20

Honggan

(Forward-Looking) US Building Permits Plunge To 8-Month Lows In June<blockquote>（前瞻）美国6月建筑许可骤降至8个月低点</blockquote>

2021-07-19

Jejejsjs

Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be "Hotter But Shorter" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：本轮周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote>

2021-07-18

Kekkeke

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2021-07-17

Ll

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2021-07-16

Gg

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2021-07-15

Keksk

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The S&P 500 fell 0.2% and the Nasdaq Composite traded near the flatline.The Federal Reserve publishes its meeting minutes from its July gathering at 2 p.m. ET. Market participants will be looking for clues about when the central bank could start dialing back its monthly bond buying program.Since that July meeting, there’s been growing support within the Fed to announce a taperin","content":"<p>(Aug 18)&nbsp;U.S. stock market opens lower Wednesday as Wall Street watches for Fed minutes.</p><p><blockquote>（8月18日）美国。由于华尔街关注美联储会议纪要，周三股市开盘走低。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed roughly 120 points, or 0.3%, after it snapped a 5-day winning streak on Tuesday. The S&amp;P 500 fell 0.2% and the Nasdaq Composite traded near the flatline.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数在周二结束连续5天的上涨后下跌约120点，即0.3%。标普500下跌0.2%，纳斯达克综合指数接近持平线。</blockquote></p><p> The Federal Reserve publishes its meeting minutes from its July gathering at 2 p.m. ET. Market participants will be looking for clues about when the central bank could start dialing back its monthly bond buying program.</p><p><blockquote>美联储将于美国东部时间下午2点公布7月份会议纪要。市场参与者将寻找有关央行何时可能开始缩减月度债券购买计划的线索。</blockquote></p><p> Since that July meeting, there’s been growing support within the Fed to&nbsp;announce a tapering in September&nbsp;and begin it in October. The&nbsp;10-year Treasury yield&nbsp;inched slightly higher to 1.28% on Wednesday ahead of the release.</p><p><blockquote>自7月会议以来，美联储内部越来越多的人支持在9月宣布缩减规模并在10月开始缩减规模。周三，10年期国债收益率在发布前小幅上涨至1.28%。</blockquote></p><p> Housing starts fell 7% in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.534 million units, well below economists’ expectations.</p><p><blockquote>7月新屋开工下降7%，经季节调整后年率为153.4万套，远低于经济学家预期。</blockquote></p><p> Investors also waded through more major retail earnings reports.</p><p><blockquote>投资者还费力地阅读了更多主要零售企业的收益报告。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of Target pulled back even after&nbsp;beating on second-quarter earnings. The retailer’s profit and revenue topped expectations and the company raised its forecast for the second half of the year, citing a good start to back-to-school spending. Target shares were up 44% this year through Tuesday, so some investors may be taking profits.</p><p><blockquote>即使第二季度盈利好于预期，塔吉特股价仍回落。该零售商的利润和收入超出预期，该公司上调了下半年的预期，理由是返校支出有了良好的开端。截至周二，塔吉特股价今年上涨了44%，因此一些投资者可能正在获利了结。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of Lowe’s jumped more than 3% after&nbsp;earnings last quarter topped expectations, with higher sales to home professionals.</p><p><blockquote>劳氏(Lowe's)上季度盈利超出预期，对家居专业人士的销售额增加，股价上涨超过3%。</blockquote></p><p> ViacomCBS shares popped around 2% after Wells Fargo&nbsp;upgraded the stock, saying it can soar more than 50% on the back of strong streaming growth and possible industry consolidation.</p><p><blockquote>富国银行上调ViacomCBS股票评级后，ViacomCBS股价上涨约2%，称在流媒体强劲增长和可能的行业整合的背景下，该股可能飙升50%以上。</blockquote></p><p> “The stock market is way overdue for a correction. Covid cases continue to spike higher darkening economic reopenings, consumer data shockingly has collapsed recently — including consumer confidence last Friday and retail sales and homebuilders’ sentiment [Tuesday] — several stocks have stopped reacting positively to good earnings, inflation reports remain hot, and Federal Reserve taper talk is everywhere,” Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at the Leuthold Group, said.</p><p><blockquote>“股市早就应该进行调整了。随着经济重新开放的恶化，新冠病例继续飙升，消费者数据最近令人震惊地崩溃——包括上周五的消费者信心以及[周二]的零售销售和房屋建筑商情绪——一些股票已经停止做出积极反应Leuthold Group首席投资策略师吉姆·保尔森(Jim Paulsen)表示：“良好的盈利、通胀报告依然火爆，美联储缩减规模的言论无处不在。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. stock market opens lower Wednesday as Wall Street watches for Fed minutes<blockquote>华尔街关注美联储会议纪要，美国股市周三低开</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. stock market opens lower Wednesday as Wall Street watches for Fed minutes<blockquote>华尔街关注美联储会议纪要，美国股市周三低开</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-18 21:31</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Aug 18)&nbsp;U.S. stock market opens lower Wednesday as Wall Street watches for Fed minutes.</p><p><blockquote>（8月18日）美国。由于华尔街关注美联储会议纪要，周三股市开盘走低。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed roughly 120 points, or 0.3%, after it snapped a 5-day winning streak on Tuesday. The S&amp;P 500 fell 0.2% and the Nasdaq Composite traded near the flatline.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数在周二结束连续5天的上涨后下跌约120点，即0.3%。标普500下跌0.2%，纳斯达克综合指数接近持平线。</blockquote></p><p> The Federal Reserve publishes its meeting minutes from its July gathering at 2 p.m. ET. Market participants will be looking for clues about when the central bank could start dialing back its monthly bond buying program.</p><p><blockquote>美联储将于美国东部时间下午2点公布7月份会议纪要。市场参与者将寻找有关央行何时可能开始缩减月度债券购买计划的线索。</blockquote></p><p> Since that July meeting, there’s been growing support within the Fed to&nbsp;announce a tapering in September&nbsp;and begin it in October. The&nbsp;10-year Treasury yield&nbsp;inched slightly higher to 1.28% on Wednesday ahead of the release.</p><p><blockquote>自7月会议以来，美联储内部越来越多的人支持在9月宣布缩减规模并在10月开始缩减规模。周三，10年期国债收益率在发布前小幅上涨至1.28%。</blockquote></p><p> Housing starts fell 7% in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.534 million units, well below economists’ expectations.</p><p><blockquote>7月新屋开工下降7%，经季节调整后年率为153.4万套，远低于经济学家预期。</blockquote></p><p> Investors also waded through more major retail earnings reports.</p><p><blockquote>投资者还费力地阅读了更多主要零售企业的收益报告。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of Target pulled back even after&nbsp;beating on second-quarter earnings. The retailer’s profit and revenue topped expectations and the company raised its forecast for the second half of the year, citing a good start to back-to-school spending. Target shares were up 44% this year through Tuesday, so some investors may be taking profits.</p><p><blockquote>即使第二季度盈利好于预期，塔吉特股价仍回落。该零售商的利润和收入超出预期，该公司上调了下半年的预期，理由是返校支出有了良好的开端。截至周二，塔吉特股价今年上涨了44%，因此一些投资者可能正在获利了结。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of Lowe’s jumped more than 3% after&nbsp;earnings last quarter topped expectations, with higher sales to home professionals.</p><p><blockquote>劳氏(Lowe's)上季度盈利超出预期，对家居专业人士的销售额增加，股价上涨超过3%。</blockquote></p><p> ViacomCBS shares popped around 2% after Wells Fargo&nbsp;upgraded the stock, saying it can soar more than 50% on the back of strong streaming growth and possible industry consolidation.</p><p><blockquote>富国银行上调ViacomCBS股票评级后，ViacomCBS股价上涨约2%，称在流媒体强劲增长和可能的行业整合的背景下，该股可能飙升50%以上。</blockquote></p><p> “The stock market is way overdue for a correction. Covid cases continue to spike higher darkening economic reopenings, consumer data shockingly has collapsed recently — including consumer confidence last Friday and retail sales and homebuilders’ sentiment [Tuesday] — several stocks have stopped reacting positively to good earnings, inflation reports remain hot, and Federal Reserve taper talk is everywhere,” Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at the Leuthold Group, said.</p><p><blockquote>“股市早就应该进行调整了。随着经济重新开放的恶化，新冠病例继续飙升，消费者数据最近令人震惊地崩溃——包括上周五的消费者信心以及[周二]的零售销售和房屋建筑商情绪——一些股票已经停止做出积极反应Leuthold Group首席投资策略师吉姆·保尔森(Jim Paulsen)表示：“良好的盈利、通胀报告依然火爆，美联储缩减规模的言论无处不在。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1173506975","content_text":"(Aug 18) U.S. stock market opens lower Wednesday as Wall Street watches for Fed minutes.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average shed roughly 120 points, or 0.3%, after it snapped a 5-day winning streak on Tuesday. The S&P 500 fell 0.2% and the Nasdaq Composite traded near the flatline.\nThe Federal Reserve publishes its meeting minutes from its July gathering at 2 p.m. ET. Market participants will be looking for clues about when the central bank could start dialing back its monthly bond buying program.\nSince that July meeting, there’s been growing support within the Fed to announce a tapering in September and begin it in October. The 10-year Treasury yield inched slightly higher to 1.28% on Wednesday ahead of the release.\nHousing starts fell 7% in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.534 million units, well below economists’ expectations.\nInvestors also waded through more major retail earnings reports.\nShares of Target pulled back even after beating on second-quarter earnings. The retailer’s profit and revenue topped expectations and the company raised its forecast for the second half of the year, citing a good start to back-to-school spending. Target shares were up 44% this year through Tuesday, so some investors may be taking profits.\nShares of Lowe’s jumped more than 3% after earnings last quarter topped expectations, with higher sales to home professionals.\nViacomCBS shares popped around 2% after Wells Fargo upgraded the stock, saying it can soar more than 50% on the back of strong streaming growth and possible industry consolidation.\n“The stock market is way overdue for a correction. Covid cases continue to spike higher darkening economic reopenings, consumer data shockingly has collapsed recently — including consumer confidence last Friday and retail sales and homebuilders’ sentiment [Tuesday] — several stocks have stopped reacting positively to good earnings, inflation reports remain hot, and Federal Reserve taper talk is everywhere,” Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at the Leuthold Group, said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1402,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":833891344,"gmtCreate":1629213767888,"gmtModify":1631891400516,"author":{"id":"3583032727743539","authorId":"3583032727743539","name":"Scam","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583032727743539","idStr":"3583032727743539"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Jsjsjs","listText":"Jsjsjs","text":"Jsjsjs","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/833891344","repostId":"2160207855","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1601,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":839348200,"gmtCreate":1629123962400,"gmtModify":1631891400517,"author":{"id":"3583032727743539","authorId":"3583032727743539","name":"Scam","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583032727743539","idStr":"3583032727743539"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Jdjdje","listText":"Jdjdje","text":"Jdjdje","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/839348200","repostId":"1121898790","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121898790","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1629123621,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1121898790?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-16 22:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Some vaccine stocks fell in morning trading<blockquote>部分疫苗股早盘下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121898790","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(Aug 16) Some vaccine stocks fell in morning trading.","content":"<p>(Aug 16)&nbsp;Some&nbsp;vaccine stocks fell in morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>（8月16日）部分疫苗股早盘下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77e26b0fb712c8d2f4ca82ce140a9433\" tg-width=\"308\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta 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trading<blockquote>部分疫苗股早盘下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-16 22:20</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Aug 16)&nbsp;Some&nbsp;vaccine stocks fell in morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>（8月16日）部分疫苗股早盘下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77e26b0fb712c8d2f4ca82ce140a9433\" tg-width=\"308\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121898790","content_text":"(Aug 16) Some vaccine stocks fell in morning 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20:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"(Forward-Looking) US Building Permits Plunge To 8-Month Lows In June<blockquote>（前瞻）美国6月建筑许可骤降至8个月低点</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112457513","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Amid a slew of weak housing sales data, weak mortgage applications, crashing homebuyer sentiment, an","content":"<p>Amid a slew of weak housing sales data, weak mortgage applications, crashing homebuyer sentiment, and 11-month low homebuilder sentiment, analysts still expected both housing starts and permits to rise MoM in June... they were half right!</p><p><blockquote>在一系列疲软的房屋销售数据、疲软的抵押贷款申请、购房者情绪崩溃以及房屋建筑商情绪连续11个月低迷的情况下，分析师仍然预计6月份新屋开工和许可数量将环比上升...他们说对了一半！</blockquote></p><p> After a small downward revision in May, Housing Starts soared 6.3% MoM in June (massively beating expectations of +1.2% MoM), but... Building Permits, which are forward-looking of course, saw a third straight month of declines, plunging 5.1% MoM (far worse than the +0.7% MoM expected)...</p><p><blockquote>在5月份小幅下调后，6月份新屋开工量环比飙升6.3%（大大超出了环比+1.2%的预期），但是...建筑许可当然是前瞻性的，但连续第三个月下降，环比下降5.1%（远低于预期的+0.7%）...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b214cc5c7f50f8c1d773d1340ab8371\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"564\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> This pushed the Permits SAAR below Starts for the first time since Jan 2020, and to its weakest since Oct 2020...</p><p><blockquote>这使得萨尔的许可证自2020年1月以来首次低于开工水平，也是自2020年10月以来的最低水平...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f22146cea0299321e3b778b2c12f567\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"560\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> Under the hood, Single Family Starts rose 6.3% SAAR to 1.160MM, the highest since March, and Multi Family (rentals) Starts were up 6.8% to 474K, highest since July 2020...</p><p><blockquote>在引擎盖下，SAAR的单户住宅开工率上涨6.3%，至1160毫米，为3月份以来的最高水平，多户住宅（租赁）开工率上涨6.8%，至47.4万毫米，为2020年7月以来的最高水平...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53df9fc958c939cc72809a5e5afd0a0e\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"619\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> But Permits were far more ugly, with Single Family Permits down 6.3% to 1.063MM SAAR, lowest since August 2020; and Multi Family Permits down 1.6% to 483K SAAR, lowest since Dec 2020.</p><p><blockquote>但许可证要糟糕得多，单身家庭许可证下降了6.3%，至1063毫米萨尔，为2020年8月以来的最低水平；多家庭许可证下降1.6%，至48.3万萨尔，为2020年12月以来的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/069ebc904e3c351c7461b49c2e4abad5\" tg-width=\"872\" tg-height=\"560\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">This is not a pretty picture for the future.</p><p><blockquote>这不是一幅美好的未来图景。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Exorbitant materials costs, combined with shortages of land and labor, have thwarted developers seeking to ramp up construction.</b>Supply concerns and a slowdown in sales pushed builder confidence down to an 11-month low in July, a&nbsp;survey&nbsp;from the National Association of Home Builders showed Monday.</p><p><blockquote><b>高昂的材料成本，加上土地和劳动力的短缺，阻碍了寻求加快建设的开发商。</b>全国住宅建筑商协会周一的一项调查显示，供应担忧和销售放缓导致7月份建筑商信心降至11个月低点。</blockquote></p><p> An inventory crunch that followed solid demand last year has sent prices soaring, tempering buyer interest.<b>A&nbsp;record&nbsp;71% of consumers said higher prices were a reason why buying conditions have soured</b>, according to July data from the University of Michigan.</p><p><blockquote>去年需求强劲后出现库存紧缩，导致价格飙升，抑制了买家的兴趣。<b>创纪录的71%的消费者表示，价格上涨是购买条件恶化的原因</b>，根据密歇根大学7月份的数据。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>(Forward-Looking) US Building Permits Plunge To 8-Month Lows In June<blockquote>（前瞻）美国6月建筑许可骤降至8个月低点</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n(Forward-Looking) US Building Permits Plunge To 8-Month Lows In June<blockquote>（前瞻）美国6月建筑许可骤降至8个月低点</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-20 20:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Amid a slew of weak housing sales data, weak mortgage applications, crashing homebuyer sentiment, and 11-month low homebuilder sentiment, analysts still expected both housing starts and permits to rise MoM in June... they were half right!</p><p><blockquote>在一系列疲软的房屋销售数据、疲软的抵押贷款申请、购房者情绪崩溃以及房屋建筑商情绪连续11个月低迷的情况下，分析师仍然预计6月份新屋开工和许可数量将环比上升...他们说对了一半！</blockquote></p><p> After a small downward revision in May, Housing Starts soared 6.3% MoM in June (massively beating expectations of +1.2% MoM), but... Building Permits, which are forward-looking of course, saw a third straight month of declines, plunging 5.1% MoM (far worse than the +0.7% MoM expected)...</p><p><blockquote>在5月份小幅下调后，6月份新屋开工量环比飙升6.3%（大大超出了环比+1.2%的预期），但是...建筑许可当然是前瞻性的，但连续第三个月下降，环比下降5.1%（远低于预期的+0.7%）...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b214cc5c7f50f8c1d773d1340ab8371\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"564\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> This pushed the Permits SAAR below Starts for the first time since Jan 2020, and to its weakest since Oct 2020...</p><p><blockquote>这使得萨尔的许可证自2020年1月以来首次低于开工水平，也是自2020年10月以来的最低水平...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f22146cea0299321e3b778b2c12f567\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"560\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> Under the hood, Single Family Starts rose 6.3% SAAR to 1.160MM, the highest since March, and Multi Family (rentals) Starts were up 6.8% to 474K, highest since July 2020...</p><p><blockquote>在引擎盖下，SAAR的单户住宅开工率上涨6.3%，至1160毫米，为3月份以来的最高水平，多户住宅（租赁）开工率上涨6.8%，至47.4万毫米，为2020年7月以来的最高水平...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53df9fc958c939cc72809a5e5afd0a0e\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"619\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> But Permits were far more ugly, with Single Family Permits down 6.3% to 1.063MM SAAR, lowest since August 2020; and Multi Family Permits down 1.6% to 483K SAAR, lowest since Dec 2020.</p><p><blockquote>但许可证要糟糕得多，单身家庭许可证下降了6.3%，至1063毫米萨尔，为2020年8月以来的最低水平；多家庭许可证下降1.6%，至48.3万萨尔，为2020年12月以来的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/069ebc904e3c351c7461b49c2e4abad5\" tg-width=\"872\" tg-height=\"560\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">This is not a pretty picture for the future.</p><p><blockquote>这不是一幅美好的未来图景。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Exorbitant materials costs, combined with shortages of land and labor, have thwarted developers seeking to ramp up construction.</b>Supply concerns and a slowdown in sales pushed builder confidence down to an 11-month low in July, a&nbsp;survey&nbsp;from the National Association of Home Builders showed Monday.</p><p><blockquote><b>高昂的材料成本，加上土地和劳动力的短缺，阻碍了寻求加快建设的开发商。</b>全国住宅建筑商协会周一的一项调查显示，供应担忧和销售放缓导致7月份建筑商信心降至11个月低点。</blockquote></p><p> An inventory crunch that followed solid demand last year has sent prices soaring, tempering buyer interest.<b>A&nbsp;record&nbsp;71% of consumers said higher prices were a reason why buying conditions have soured</b>, according to July data from the University of Michigan.</p><p><blockquote>去年需求强劲后出现库存紧缩，导致价格飙升，抑制了买家的兴趣。<b>创纪录的71%的消费者表示，价格上涨是购买条件恶化的原因</b>，根据密歇根大学7月份的数据。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/forward-looking-us-building-permits-plunge-8-month-lows-june\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/forward-looking-us-building-permits-plunge-8-month-lows-june","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112457513","content_text":"Amid a slew of weak housing sales data, weak mortgage applications, crashing homebuyer sentiment, and 11-month low homebuilder sentiment, analysts still expected both housing starts and permits to rise MoM in June... they were half right!\nAfter a small downward revision in May, Housing Starts soared 6.3% MoM in June (massively beating expectations of +1.2% MoM), but... Building Permits, which are forward-looking of course, saw a third straight month of declines, plunging 5.1% MoM (far worse than the +0.7% MoM expected)...\nSource: Bloomberg\nThis pushed the Permits SAAR below Starts for the first time since Jan 2020, and to its weakest since Oct 2020...\nSource: Bloomberg\nUnder the hood, Single Family Starts rose 6.3% SAAR to 1.160MM, the highest since March, and Multi Family (rentals) Starts were up 6.8% to 474K, highest since July 2020...\n\nBut Permits were far more ugly, with Single Family Permits down 6.3% to 1.063MM SAAR, lowest since August 2020; and Multi Family Permits down 1.6% to 483K SAAR, lowest since Dec 2020.\nThis is not a pretty picture for the future.\nExorbitant materials costs, combined with shortages of land and labor, have thwarted developers seeking to ramp up construction.Supply concerns and a slowdown in sales pushed builder confidence down to an 11-month low in July, a survey from the National Association of Home Builders showed Monday.\nAn inventory crunch that followed solid demand last year has sent prices soaring, tempering buyer interest.A record 71% of consumers said higher prices were a reason why buying conditions have soured, according to July data from the University of Michigan.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":339,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171953312,"gmtCreate":1626703449436,"gmtModify":1633924795480,"author":{"id":"3583032727743539","authorId":"3583032727743539","name":"Scam","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583032727743539","idStr":"3583032727743539"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Jejejsjs","listText":"Jejejsjs","text":"Jejejsjs","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171953312","repostId":"1146536243","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146536243","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626683272,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1146536243?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-19 16:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：本轮周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146536243","media":"zerohedge","summary":"This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","content":"<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为这个经济周期将是正常的、强劲的、短暂的。这些假设中的每一个都受到市场的激烈争论。每一项都是我们投资策略的关键。</blockquote></p><p> The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p><p><blockquote>关于周期“常态”的争论是不言自明的。毫不夸张地说，疫情造成了有记录以来最大幅度的产出下降。随后，在政策支持的帮助下，经济活动迅速回升。将这种情况视为独特的，不同于其他周期性经历的理由是，这种暴力的下跌和上涨从未允许传统的“重置”。</blockquote></p><p> But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p><p><blockquote>但市场中的“正常”是一个有趣的概念，记忆的粗糙边缘往往会随着时间的推移而变得光滑和抛光。2003-07年的周期以大萧条以来最大的银行和房地产危机结束。1992-2000年的周期以巨大的股票泡沫破裂、广泛的会计欺诈和难以言喻的悲剧而告终。“正常”周期在理论上很好，但在实践中更难。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p><p><blockquote>相反，让我们考虑一下为什么我们使用术语“周期”。经济和市场往往遵循周期性模式，这些模式往往会在市场表现中显现出来。我们关心的是那些模式，如果它们仍然适用，它们可以在不确定的地形中提供有用的指导。</blockquote></p><p> Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p><p><blockquote>去年的衰退之前是否存在收益率曲线倒挂、低波动性、低失业率、高消费者信心和股市广度收窄等周期后期条件？是的。由此产生的股票、信贷、收益率和收益率曲线的低谷是否符合市场和经济低点之间的通常节奏？他们做到了。随后反弹的领头羊是否是通常的早期周期赢家，如小型股和周期性股票、高收益信贷和工业金属？他们是。</blockquote></p><p> If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are.&nbsp;If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should&nbsp;<i>continue</i>&nbsp;to do so.</p><p><blockquote>如果它像鸭子一样走路，像鸭子一样嘎嘎叫，我们认为这是一个正常的循环。或者这些事情实际上是正常的。如果到目前为止已经发生了很多“正常”的循环行为，那么它应该<i>继续</i>这样做。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see&nbsp;The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，这与市场复苏时的表现模式有关。随着复苏的推进，这些模式应该会发生变化。正如我的同事迈克尔·威尔逊所指出的，我们认为我们正在进入周期中期市场，尽管距离经济活动低点仅16个月。我们看到当前状况与2004年上半年有许多相似之处，2004年上半年是大幅通货再膨胀反弹之后的周期中期。重要的是，尽管最近对增长感到担忧，但我们认为全球复苏将继续推进（见增长恐慌周年纪念，2021年7月11日）。</blockquote></p><p> Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p><p><blockquote>因为人们总能找到适合他们特定周期观点的指标，所以我们长期以来一直是综合指数的粉丝。这就是我们的“周期模型”，它结合了美国宏观、信贷周期和企业侵略性的十个指标，以衡量我们在市场周期中的位置。在2019年6月进入周期后期“低迷”和2020年4月进入周期早期“修复”后，该指数飙升。<b>它上升得如此之快，以至于已经过了下一个阶段（“复苏”），直接进入了“扩张”。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility:&nbsp;this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p><p><blockquote>这很不寻常。“扩张”意味着捕捉“比正常情况更好且正在改善”的条件，<b>自1980年以来，“低迷”结束后平均需要35个月才能实现这一目标</b>它的迅速到来表明，在巨大的政策支持下，经济正在迅速复苏。<b>这也暗示了另一种可能性：这个更热的周期可能会更短。</b>这是我们的论点，它体现在我们的定量测量中。</blockquote></p><p> All this has a number of implications:</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都有许多含义：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li>  <li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li>  <li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li>  <li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li> </ul> This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>周期越短，信贷相对于其他风险资产越差；信贷从“繁荣”中获得的收益较少，如果下一次衰退提前到来，信贷就会面临风险，并且随着企业信心的增强，信贷将面临更多的供应</b>在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国IG和HY Credit N1200万超额回报分别比平均水平差29个基点和161个基点。</li><li><b>在其中许多时期，尽管违约率仍然很低，但信贷表现却参差不齐</b>投资者应该尝试承担违约风险而不是利差风险：我们的信用策略师喜欢持有CDX HY 0-15%，并用CDX IG付款人利差进行对冲。</li><li><b>在股票方面，我们认为我们的模型支持投资组合更加平衡</b>我们看好美国和欧洲的医疗保健行业，因为该行业具有几个良好的因素：质量、低估值、高利差和低波动性。从全球来看，欧洲和日本的股市往往跑赢“中期周期”，我们认为它们可以再次这样做。</li><li><b>利率对复苏过于悲观。在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国10年期国债1200万奈拉回报率比平均水平低97个基点</b>.Guneet Dhingra和我们的美国利率策略团队在全球资产配置中转移了跑输大盘美国10年期国债，而我们反过来又转移了跑输大盘政府债券。</li></ul>这种循环是不寻常的。大多数“正常”周期都是。我们认为复苏是可持续的，而且更有可能“更热、更短”。出售国债并相信扩张。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：本轮周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：本轮周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-19 16:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为这个经济周期将是正常的、强劲的、短暂的。这些假设中的每一个都受到市场的激烈争论。每一项都是我们投资策略的关键。</blockquote></p><p> The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p><p><blockquote>关于周期“常态”的争论是不言自明的。毫不夸张地说，疫情造成了有记录以来最大幅度的产出下降。随后，在政策支持的帮助下，经济活动迅速回升。将这种情况视为独特的，不同于其他周期性经历的理由是，这种暴力的下跌和上涨从未允许传统的“重置”。</blockquote></p><p> But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p><p><blockquote>但市场中的“正常”是一个有趣的概念，记忆的粗糙边缘往往会随着时间的推移而变得光滑和抛光。2003-07年的周期以大萧条以来最大的银行和房地产危机结束。1992-2000年的周期以巨大的股票泡沫破裂、广泛的会计欺诈和难以言喻的悲剧而告终。“正常”周期在理论上很好，但在实践中更难。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p><p><blockquote>相反，让我们考虑一下为什么我们使用术语“周期”。经济和市场往往遵循周期性模式，这些模式往往会在市场表现中显现出来。我们关心的是那些模式，如果它们仍然适用，它们可以在不确定的地形中提供有用的指导。</blockquote></p><p> Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p><p><blockquote>去年的衰退之前是否存在收益率曲线倒挂、低波动性、低失业率、高消费者信心和股市广度收窄等周期后期条件？是的。由此产生的股票、信贷、收益率和收益率曲线的低谷是否符合市场和经济低点之间的通常节奏？他们做到了。随后反弹的领头羊是否是通常的早期周期赢家，如小型股和周期性股票、高收益信贷和工业金属？他们是。</blockquote></p><p> If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are.&nbsp;If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should&nbsp;<i>continue</i>&nbsp;to do so.</p><p><blockquote>如果它像鸭子一样走路，像鸭子一样嘎嘎叫，我们认为这是一个正常的循环。或者这些事情实际上是正常的。如果到目前为止已经发生了很多“正常”的循环行为，那么它应该<i>继续</i>这样做。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see&nbsp;The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，这与市场复苏时的表现模式有关。随着复苏的推进，这些模式应该会发生变化。正如我的同事迈克尔·威尔逊所指出的，我们认为我们正在进入周期中期市场，尽管距离经济活动低点仅16个月。我们看到当前状况与2004年上半年有许多相似之处，2004年上半年是大幅通货再膨胀反弹之后的周期中期。重要的是，尽管最近对增长感到担忧，但我们认为全球复苏将继续推进（见增长恐慌周年纪念，2021年7月11日）。</blockquote></p><p> Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p><p><blockquote>因为人们总能找到适合他们特定周期观点的指标，所以我们长期以来一直是综合指数的粉丝。这就是我们的“周期模型”，它结合了美国宏观、信贷周期和企业侵略性的十个指标，以衡量我们在市场周期中的位置。在2019年6月进入周期后期“低迷”和2020年4月进入周期早期“修复”后，该指数飙升。<b>它上升得如此之快，以至于已经过了下一个阶段（“复苏”），直接进入了“扩张”。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility:&nbsp;this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p><p><blockquote>这很不寻常。“扩张”意味着捕捉“比正常情况更好且正在改善”的条件，<b>自1980年以来，“低迷”结束后平均需要35个月才能实现这一目标</b>它的迅速到来表明，在巨大的政策支持下，经济正在迅速复苏。<b>这也暗示了另一种可能性：这个更热的周期可能会更短。</b>这是我们的论点，它体现在我们的定量测量中。</blockquote></p><p> All this has a number of implications:</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都有许多含义：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li>  <li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li>  <li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li>  <li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li> </ul> This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>周期越短，信贷相对于其他风险资产越差；信贷从“繁荣”中获得的收益较少，如果下一次衰退提前到来，信贷就会面临风险，并且随着企业信心的增强，信贷将面临更多的供应</b>在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国IG和HY Credit N1200万超额回报分别比平均水平差29个基点和161个基点。</li><li><b>在其中许多时期，尽管违约率仍然很低，但信贷表现却参差不齐</b>投资者应该尝试承担违约风险而不是利差风险：我们的信用策略师喜欢持有CDX HY 0-15%，并用CDX IG付款人利差进行对冲。</li><li><b>在股票方面，我们认为我们的模型支持投资组合更加平衡</b>我们看好美国和欧洲的医疗保健行业，因为该行业具有几个良好的因素：质量、低估值、高利差和低波动性。从全球来看，欧洲和日本的股市往往跑赢“中期周期”，我们认为它们可以再次这样做。</li><li><b>利率对复苏过于悲观。在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国10年期国债1200万奈拉回报率比平均水平低97个基点</b>.Guneet Dhingra和我们的美国利率策略团队在全球资产配置中转移了跑输大盘美国10年期国债，而我们反过来又转移了跑输大盘政府债券。</li></ul>这种循环是不寻常的。大多数“正常”周期都是。我们认为复苏是可持续的，而且更有可能“更热、更短”。出售国债并相信扩张。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146536243","content_text":"We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.\nThe debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.\nBut 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.\nInstead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.\nWas last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.\nIf it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are. If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should continue to do so.\nSpecifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).\nBecause one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.\nThisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.It also hints at another possibility: this hotter cycle could be shorter.This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.\nAll this has a number of implications:\n\nThe shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.\nIn many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.\nIn equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.\nInterest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.\n\nThis cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the 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16:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：本轮周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146536243","media":"zerohedge","summary":"This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","content":"<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为这个经济周期将是正常的、强劲的、短暂的。这些假设中的每一个都受到市场的激烈争论。每一项都是我们投资策略的关键。</blockquote></p><p> The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p><p><blockquote>关于周期“常态”的争论是不言自明的。毫不夸张地说，疫情造成了有记录以来最大幅度的产出下降。随后，在政策支持的帮助下，经济活动迅速回升。将这种情况视为独特的，不同于其他周期性经历的理由是，这种暴力的下跌和上涨从未允许传统的“重置”。</blockquote></p><p> But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p><p><blockquote>但市场中的“正常”是一个有趣的概念，记忆的粗糙边缘往往会随着时间的推移而变得光滑和抛光。2003-07年的周期以大萧条以来最大的银行和房地产危机结束。1992-2000年的周期以巨大的股票泡沫破裂、广泛的会计欺诈和难以言喻的悲剧而告终。“正常”周期在理论上很好，但在实践中更难。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p><p><blockquote>相反，让我们考虑一下为什么我们使用术语“周期”。经济和市场往往遵循周期性模式，这些模式往往会在市场表现中显现出来。我们关心的是那些模式，如果它们仍然适用，它们可以在不确定的地形中提供有用的指导。</blockquote></p><p> Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p><p><blockquote>去年的衰退之前是否存在收益率曲线倒挂、低波动性、低失业率、高消费者信心和股市广度收窄等周期后期条件？是的。由此产生的股票、信贷、收益率和收益率曲线的低谷是否符合市场和经济低点之间的通常节奏？他们做到了。随后反弹的领头羊是否是通常的早期周期赢家，如小型股和周期性股票、高收益信贷和工业金属？他们是。</blockquote></p><p> If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are.&nbsp;If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should&nbsp;<i>continue</i>&nbsp;to do so.</p><p><blockquote>如果它像鸭子一样走路，像鸭子一样嘎嘎叫，我们认为这是一个正常的循环。或者这些事情实际上是正常的。如果到目前为止已经发生了很多“正常”的循环行为，那么它应该<i>继续</i>这样做。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see&nbsp;The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，这与市场复苏时的表现模式有关。随着复苏的推进，这些模式应该会发生变化。正如我的同事迈克尔·威尔逊所指出的，我们认为我们正在进入周期中期市场，尽管距离经济活动低点仅16个月。我们看到当前状况与2004年上半年有许多相似之处，2004年上半年是大幅通货再膨胀反弹之后的周期中期。重要的是，尽管最近对增长感到担忧，但我们认为全球复苏将继续推进（见增长恐慌周年纪念，2021年7月11日）。</blockquote></p><p> Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p><p><blockquote>因为人们总能找到适合他们特定周期观点的指标，所以我们长期以来一直是综合指数的粉丝。这就是我们的“周期模型”，它结合了美国宏观、信贷周期和企业侵略性的十个指标，以衡量我们在市场周期中的位置。在2019年6月进入周期后期“低迷”和2020年4月进入周期早期“修复”后，该指数飙升。<b>它上升得如此之快，以至于已经过了下一个阶段（“复苏”），直接进入了“扩张”。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility:&nbsp;this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p><p><blockquote>这很不寻常。“扩张”意味着捕捉“比正常情况更好且正在改善”的条件，<b>自1980年以来，“低迷”结束后平均需要35个月才能实现这一目标</b>它的迅速到来表明，在巨大的政策支持下，经济正在迅速复苏。<b>这也暗示了另一种可能性：这个更热的周期可能会更短。</b>这是我们的论点，它体现在我们的定量测量中。</blockquote></p><p> All this has a number of implications:</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都有许多含义：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li>  <li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li>  <li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li>  <li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li> </ul> This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>周期越短，信贷相对于其他风险资产越差；信贷从“繁荣”中获得的收益较少，如果下一次衰退提前到来，信贷就会面临风险，并且随着企业信心的增强，信贷将面临更多的供应</b>在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国IG和HY Credit N1200万超额回报分别比平均水平差29个基点和161个基点。</li><li><b>在其中许多时期，尽管违约率仍然很低，但信贷表现却参差不齐</b>投资者应该尝试承担违约风险而不是利差风险：我们的信用策略师喜欢持有CDX HY 0-15%，并用CDX IG付款人利差进行对冲。</li><li><b>在股票方面，我们认为我们的模型支持投资组合更加平衡</b>我们看好美国和欧洲的医疗保健行业，因为该行业具有几个良好的因素：质量、低估值、高利差和低波动性。从全球来看，欧洲和日本的股市往往跑赢“中期周期”，我们认为它们可以再次这样做。</li><li><b>利率对复苏过于悲观。在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国10年期国债1200万奈拉回报率比平均水平低97个基点</b>.Guneet Dhingra和我们的美国利率策略团队在全球资产配置中转移了跑输大盘美国10年期国债，而我们反过来又转移了跑输大盘政府债券。</li></ul>这种循环是不寻常的。大多数“正常”周期都是。我们认为复苏是可持续的，而且更有可能“更热、更短”。出售国债并相信扩张。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：本轮周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：本轮周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-19 16:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为这个经济周期将是正常的、强劲的、短暂的。这些假设中的每一个都受到市场的激烈争论。每一项都是我们投资策略的关键。</blockquote></p><p> The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p><p><blockquote>关于周期“常态”的争论是不言自明的。毫不夸张地说，疫情造成了有记录以来最大幅度的产出下降。随后，在政策支持的帮助下，经济活动迅速回升。将这种情况视为独特的，不同于其他周期性经历的理由是，这种暴力的下跌和上涨从未允许传统的“重置”。</blockquote></p><p> But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p><p><blockquote>但市场中的“正常”是一个有趣的概念，记忆的粗糙边缘往往会随着时间的推移而变得光滑和抛光。2003-07年的周期以大萧条以来最大的银行和房地产危机结束。1992-2000年的周期以巨大的股票泡沫破裂、广泛的会计欺诈和难以言喻的悲剧而告终。“正常”周期在理论上很好，但在实践中更难。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p><p><blockquote>相反，让我们考虑一下为什么我们使用术语“周期”。经济和市场往往遵循周期性模式，这些模式往往会在市场表现中显现出来。我们关心的是那些模式，如果它们仍然适用，它们可以在不确定的地形中提供有用的指导。</blockquote></p><p> Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p><p><blockquote>去年的衰退之前是否存在收益率曲线倒挂、低波动性、低失业率、高消费者信心和股市广度收窄等周期后期条件？是的。由此产生的股票、信贷、收益率和收益率曲线的低谷是否符合市场和经济低点之间的通常节奏？他们做到了。随后反弹的领头羊是否是通常的早期周期赢家，如小型股和周期性股票、高收益信贷和工业金属？他们是。</blockquote></p><p> If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are.&nbsp;If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should&nbsp;<i>continue</i>&nbsp;to do so.</p><p><blockquote>如果它像鸭子一样走路，像鸭子一样嘎嘎叫，我们认为这是一个正常的循环。或者这些事情实际上是正常的。如果到目前为止已经发生了很多“正常”的循环行为，那么它应该<i>继续</i>这样做。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see&nbsp;The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，这与市场复苏时的表现模式有关。随着复苏的推进，这些模式应该会发生变化。正如我的同事迈克尔·威尔逊所指出的，我们认为我们正在进入周期中期市场，尽管距离经济活动低点仅16个月。我们看到当前状况与2004年上半年有许多相似之处，2004年上半年是大幅通货再膨胀反弹之后的周期中期。重要的是，尽管最近对增长感到担忧，但我们认为全球复苏将继续推进（见增长恐慌周年纪念，2021年7月11日）。</blockquote></p><p> Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p><p><blockquote>因为人们总能找到适合他们特定周期观点的指标，所以我们长期以来一直是综合指数的粉丝。这就是我们的“周期模型”，它结合了美国宏观、信贷周期和企业侵略性的十个指标，以衡量我们在市场周期中的位置。在2019年6月进入周期后期“低迷”和2020年4月进入周期早期“修复”后，该指数飙升。<b>它上升得如此之快，以至于已经过了下一个阶段（“复苏”），直接进入了“扩张”。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility:&nbsp;this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p><p><blockquote>这很不寻常。“扩张”意味着捕捉“比正常情况更好且正在改善”的条件，<b>自1980年以来，“低迷”结束后平均需要35个月才能实现这一目标</b>它的迅速到来表明，在巨大的政策支持下，经济正在迅速复苏。<b>这也暗示了另一种可能性：这个更热的周期可能会更短。</b>这是我们的论点，它体现在我们的定量测量中。</blockquote></p><p> All this has a number of implications:</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都有许多含义：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li>  <li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li>  <li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li>  <li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li> </ul> This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>周期越短，信贷相对于其他风险资产越差；信贷从“繁荣”中获得的收益较少，如果下一次衰退提前到来，信贷就会面临风险，并且随着企业信心的增强，信贷将面临更多的供应</b>在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国IG和HY Credit N1200万超额回报分别比平均水平差29个基点和161个基点。</li><li><b>在其中许多时期，尽管违约率仍然很低，但信贷表现却参差不齐</b>投资者应该尝试承担违约风险而不是利差风险：我们的信用策略师喜欢持有CDX HY 0-15%，并用CDX IG付款人利差进行对冲。</li><li><b>在股票方面，我们认为我们的模型支持投资组合更加平衡</b>我们看好美国和欧洲的医疗保健行业，因为该行业具有几个良好的因素：质量、低估值、高利差和低波动性。从全球来看，欧洲和日本的股市往往跑赢“中期周期”，我们认为它们可以再次这样做。</li><li><b>利率对复苏过于悲观。在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国10年期国债1200万奈拉回报率比平均水平低97个基点</b>.Guneet Dhingra和我们的美国利率策略团队在全球资产配置中转移了跑输大盘美国10年期国债，而我们反过来又转移了跑输大盘政府债券。</li></ul>这种循环是不寻常的。大多数“正常”周期都是。我们认为复苏是可持续的，而且更有可能“更热、更短”。出售国债并相信扩张。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146536243","content_text":"We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.\nThe debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.\nBut 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.\nInstead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.\nWas last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.\nIf it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are. If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should continue to do so.\nSpecifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).\nBecause one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.\nThisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.It also hints at another possibility: this hotter cycle could be shorter.This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.\nAll this has a number of implications:\n\nThe shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.\nIn many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.\nIn equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.\nInterest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.\n\nThis cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":329,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":179608024,"gmtCreate":1626510364668,"gmtModify":1633926120211,"author":{"id":"3583032727743539","authorId":"3583032727743539","name":"Scam","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583032727743539","idStr":"3583032727743539"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ll","listText":"Ll","text":"Ll","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/179608024","repostId":"1198202103","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":473,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185794804,"gmtCreate":1623672214608,"gmtModify":1634030390886,"author":{"id":"3583032727743539","authorId":"3583032727743539","name":"Scam","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583032727743539","idStr":"3583032727743539"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nihaomoa","listText":"Nihaomoa","text":"Nihaomoa","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185794804","repostId":"1146430910","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":266,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":189954962,"gmtCreate":1623242050156,"gmtModify":1634035475288,"author":{"id":"3583032727743539","authorId":"3583032727743539","name":"Scam","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583032727743539","idStr":"3583032727743539"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nihao","listText":"Nihao","text":"Nihao","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/189954962","repostId":"1150769391","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1150769391","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623239634,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1150769391?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-09 19:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Toplines Before US Market Open on Wednesday<blockquote>周三美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150769391","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Stock futures traded mixed Wednesday morning as investors considered more mixed data on the U.S. eco","content":"<p><ul>  <li>Stock futures traded mixed Wednesday morning as investors considered more mixed data on the U.S. economic recovery.</li>  <li>A resurgence in the social media-fueled \"meme stocks.</li>  <li>Newest meme stock Clover Health is set to soar again.</li>  <li>Shares of major banks came under some pressure as bond yields sank to one-month lows.</li> </ul> (June 9)&nbsp;U.S. stock index futures were little changed on Wednesday as a lack of clear catalysts kept trading slow, with investors awaiting fresh cues from inflation data this week and an upcoming Federal Reserve meeting.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>周三上午股指期货交易涨跌互现，投资者考虑的美国经济复苏数据好坏参半。</li><li>社交媒体推动的“模因股票”复苏。</li><li>最新的模因股票Clover Health将再次飙升。</li><li>随着债券收益率跌至一个月低点，主要银行的股价面临一定压力。</li></ul>（6月9日）美国。股指期货周三几乎没有变化，因为缺乏明确的催化剂导致交易缓慢，投资者等待本周通胀数据和即将召开的美联储会议的新线索。</blockquote></p><p> At 7:48 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were down 54 points, or 0.16%, S&amp;P 500 e-minis were up 0.5 points, or 0.01%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 30.25 points, or 0.22%.</p><p><blockquote>截至美国东部时间上午7:48，道指e-minis下跌54点，跌幅0.16%，标普500 e-minis上涨0.5点，跌幅0.01%，纳斯达克100 e-minis上涨30.25点，跌幅0.22%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3a1c4aedbfac21d4c2feae0a05614f3\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"478\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>7:48 a.m. ET</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国东部时间上午7:48</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But buying into so-called “meme stocks” by small-time retail investors continued, with the new social media favorite Clover Health surging 25.73% in premarket trade after jumping 85% to a record high on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>但小型散户投资者继续买入所谓的“模因股票”，社交媒体新宠Clover Health在周二飙升85%至历史新高后，在盘前交易中飙升25.73%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef37b731791f10c5962707211941a638\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"514\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> GameStop - the company most closely associated with the retail rally this year - rose 1.03% ahead of its quarterly results, due after the bell.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站是今年与零售业反弹关系最密切的公司，在盘后公布季度业绩之前上涨1.03%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac557bd1a3e7455529267059a84f206b\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"514\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Wall Street indexes have moved little this week amid a dearth of cues, with most investors sticking to the sidelines ahead of key inflation data on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>由于缺乏线索，华尔街指数本周几乎没有变动，大多数投资者在周四关键通胀数据公布之前保持观望。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s meeting next week is also expected to shed more light on the bank’s policy tapering plans. While inflation has surged in recent months, a sluggish labor market is broadly expected to keep the bank dovish.</p><p><blockquote>美联储下周的会议预计也将进一步阐明该行的政策缩减计划。尽管近几个月通胀飙升，但人们普遍预计低迷的劳动力市场将使央行保持鸽派立场。</blockquote></p><p> <h3><b>Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:</b></h3> <b>1)&nbsp;Clover Health(CLOV),Wendy's(WEN) </b>– The two stocksextended their gainsin premarket trading, after surging yesterday on increased social media attention. Clover – a seller of health-care insurance that went public via a SPAC deal in October – has risen for the past six days, capped by a nearly 86% surge Tuesday. It soared 24.2% in premarket action, while Wendy's – up nearly 26% in yesterday's trading – added another 4.3% this morning.</p><p><blockquote><h3><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：</b></h3><b>1)Clover Health(CLOV)、Wendy's(WEN)</b>-这两只股票在昨天因社交媒体关注度增加而飙升后，在盘前交易中扩大了涨幅。Clover是一家医疗保险销售商，于10月份通过SPAC交易上市，过去六天股价上涨，周二飙升近86%。该股在盘前股价飙升24.2%，而Wendy's在昨天的交易中上涨了近26%，今天上午又上涨了4.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2)&nbsp;Campbell Soup(CPB) </b>– The food producer reported quarterly earnings of 57 cents per share, missing consensus by 9 cents a share. Revenue also missed forecasts as results lagged year-ago figures that were boosted by pandemic-related demand. Campbell also cut its full-year forecast, reflecting both those quarterly results and the recent sale of its Plum baby food and snacks business. Campbell shares tumbled 5.8% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>2）金宝汤（CPB）</b>–该食品生产商公布的季度收益为每股57美分，比市场预期低9美分。由于业绩落后于受大流行相关需求提振的去年同期数据，收入也未达到预期。金宝汤还下调了全年预期，反映了这些季度业绩以及最近出售其Plum婴儿食品和零食业务。金宝汤股价盘前下跌5.8%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3)&nbsp;Lordstown Motors(RIDE)</b> – Lordstown Motors said there was \"substantial doubt\" about its ability to continue as a going concern. The electric truck maker said in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing that it is having problems funding vehicle production. Lordstown plunged more than 16% yesterday ahead of the news, and slid another 4.2% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>3)洛兹敦汽车公司(RIDE)</b>-洛兹敦汽车公司表示，对其持续经营的能力存在“重大疑问”。这家电动卡车制造商在向美国证券交易委员会提交的文件中表示，它在为汽车生产提供资金方面遇到了问题。昨天消息传出前，洛兹敦股价暴跌超过16%，盘前交易中又下跌4.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4)&nbsp;Target(TGT) </b>– The retailer increased its quarterly dividend to 90 cents per share from 68 cents a share, a jump of 32%. The improved payout will go to shareholders of record as of Aug. 18, to be paid on Sept. 10.</p><p><blockquote><b>4）靶点（TGT）</b>-该零售商将季度股息从每股68美分提高到每股90美分，增幅为32%。改进后的派息将支付给截至8月18日登记在册的股东，并于9月10日支付。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5)&nbsp;Merck(MRK)</b> – The drugmaker struck an agreement to supply the government with molnupiravir, an oral treatment designed to treat mild to moderate cases of Covid-19. The drug is currently being evaluated in a phase 3 trial.</p><p><blockquote><b>5）默克（MRK）</b>–该制药商达成协议，向政府提供molnupiravir，这是一种旨在治疗轻度至中度Covid-19病例的口服治疗药物。该药物目前正在3期试验中进行评估。</blockquote></p><p> <b>6)&nbsp;Fastly(FSLY)</b> – Fastly issued an apology for Tuesday’s widespread internet outage, with the cloud computing company saying the incident was caused by a software bug that was triggered when a customer changed settings. Fastly rose 2.4% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>6)快速(FSLY)</b>-Fastly为周二的大范围互联网中断道歉，这家云计算公司表示，该事件是由客户更改设置时触发的软件错误引起的。Fastly盘前上涨2.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>7)&nbsp;Sherwin-Williams(SHW) </b>– Sherwin-Williams raised its sales and profit guidance for the year, as the paint maker sees pandemic-induced demand for its products continuing even as the pandemic recedes. The company is also raising its prices to deal with higher costs for raw materials. Sherwin-Williams fell 1.3% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>7）宣伟（SHW）</b>-宣伟上调了今年的销售和利润指引，因为该涂料制造商认为，即使疫情消退，疫情引发的对其产品的需求仍在继续。该公司还提高价格以应对原材料成本上涨。宣伟盘前下跌1.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>8)&nbsp;Casey’s General Stores(CASY)</b> – Casey’s reported quarterly earnings of $1.12 per share, beating the consensus estimate of 88 cents a share. The convenience store chain’s revenue exceeded estimates as well. Same-store sales, excluding gasoline purchases, rose 12.8% as customer traffic steadily increased.</p><p><blockquote><b>8)凯西综合商店(CASY)</b>–Casey报告的季度收益为每股1.12美元，超出了每股88美分的普遍预期。这家连锁便利店的收入也超出了预期。随着客流量稳步增加，不包括汽油购买的同店销售额增长了12.8%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>9)&nbsp;Fox Corp.(FOXA) </b>– Fox added 1.8% in the premarket following an upgrade to “overweight” from “equal weight” at Wells Fargo Securities, which feels the stock could benefit from Fox’s presence in sports gambling despite pressures from cord-cutting.</p><p><blockquote><b>9)福克斯公司(FOXA)</b>-富国银行证券(Wells Fargo Securities)将福克斯评级从“同等权重”上调至“跑赢大盘”，该公司认为，尽管面临裁员的压力，该股仍可能受益于福克斯在体育博彩领域的存在。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>10)&nbsp;Abercrombie &amp; Fitch(ANF)</b> – The apparel retailer was upgraded to “buy” from “hold” at Jefferies, which points to ongoing benefits from years of brand elevation efforts as well as an increase in profit margins. Abercrombie rose 2.9% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>10)Abercrombie&amp;Fitch(ANF)</b>-杰富瑞(Jefferies)将该服装零售商的评级从“持有”上调至“买入”，这表明多年来的品牌提升努力以及利润率的提高带来了持续的好处。Abercrombie在盘前交易中上涨2.9%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>11)&nbsp;GameStop(GME)</b> – The videogame retailer will report quarterly earnings after today’s closing bell. GameStop shares surged the past two days amid renewed buying in the so-called “meme” stocks.</p><p><blockquote><b>11）游戏驿站(GME)</b>-这家视频游戏零售商将在今天收盘后公布季度收益。过去两天，由于所谓“模因”股票的重新买盘，游戏驿站股价飙升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>12)&nbsp;Ferrari(RACE) </b>– Ferrari namedSTMicroelectronics(STM) executive Benedetto Vignaas its new CEO, filling a position that had been vacant for six months since Louis Camilleri retired as the automaker’s chief. Vigna – who runs chipmaker STMicro’s biggest division – will begin his new duties at Ferrari on Sept. 1.</p><p><blockquote><b>12）法拉利（比赛）</b>–法拉利任命意法半导体(STM)高管Benedetto Vignaa为新任首席执行官，填补自路易斯·卡米莱里(Louis Camilleri)从汽车制造商首席执行官职位上退休以来空缺了六个月的职位。维尼亚是芯片制造商意法半导体最大部门的负责人，他将于9月1日开始在法拉利履行新职责。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Toplines Before US Market Open on Wednesday<blockquote>周三美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nToplines Before US Market Open on Wednesday<blockquote>周三美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-09 19:53</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><ul>  <li>Stock futures traded mixed Wednesday morning as investors considered more mixed data on the U.S. economic recovery.</li>  <li>A resurgence in the social media-fueled \"meme stocks.</li>  <li>Newest meme stock Clover Health is set to soar again.</li>  <li>Shares of major banks came under some pressure as bond yields sank to one-month lows.</li> </ul> (June 9)&nbsp;U.S. stock index futures were little changed on Wednesday as a lack of clear catalysts kept trading slow, with investors awaiting fresh cues from inflation data this week and an upcoming Federal Reserve meeting.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>周三上午股指期货交易涨跌互现，投资者考虑的美国经济复苏数据好坏参半。</li><li>社交媒体推动的“模因股票”复苏。</li><li>最新的模因股票Clover Health将再次飙升。</li><li>随着债券收益率跌至一个月低点，主要银行的股价面临一定压力。</li></ul>（6月9日）美国。股指期货周三几乎没有变化，因为缺乏明确的催化剂导致交易缓慢，投资者等待本周通胀数据和即将召开的美联储会议的新线索。</blockquote></p><p> At 7:48 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were down 54 points, or 0.16%, S&amp;P 500 e-minis were up 0.5 points, or 0.01%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 30.25 points, or 0.22%.</p><p><blockquote>截至美国东部时间上午7:48，道指e-minis下跌54点，跌幅0.16%，标普500 e-minis上涨0.5点，跌幅0.01%，纳斯达克100 e-minis上涨30.25点，跌幅0.22%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3a1c4aedbfac21d4c2feae0a05614f3\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"478\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>7:48 a.m. ET</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国东部时间上午7:48</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But buying into so-called “meme stocks” by small-time retail investors continued, with the new social media favorite Clover Health surging 25.73% in premarket trade after jumping 85% to a record high on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>但小型散户投资者继续买入所谓的“模因股票”，社交媒体新宠Clover Health在周二飙升85%至历史新高后，在盘前交易中飙升25.73%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef37b731791f10c5962707211941a638\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"514\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> GameStop - the company most closely associated with the retail rally this year - rose 1.03% ahead of its quarterly results, due after the bell.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站是今年与零售业反弹关系最密切的公司，在盘后公布季度业绩之前上涨1.03%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac557bd1a3e7455529267059a84f206b\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"514\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Wall Street indexes have moved little this week amid a dearth of cues, with most investors sticking to the sidelines ahead of key inflation data on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>由于缺乏线索，华尔街指数本周几乎没有变动，大多数投资者在周四关键通胀数据公布之前保持观望。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s meeting next week is also expected to shed more light on the bank’s policy tapering plans. While inflation has surged in recent months, a sluggish labor market is broadly expected to keep the bank dovish.</p><p><blockquote>美联储下周的会议预计也将进一步阐明该行的政策缩减计划。尽管近几个月通胀飙升，但人们普遍预计低迷的劳动力市场将使央行保持鸽派立场。</blockquote></p><p> <h3><b>Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:</b></h3> <b>1)&nbsp;Clover Health(CLOV),Wendy's(WEN) </b>– The two stocksextended their gainsin premarket trading, after surging yesterday on increased social media attention. Clover – a seller of health-care insurance that went public via a SPAC deal in October – has risen for the past six days, capped by a nearly 86% surge Tuesday. It soared 24.2% in premarket action, while Wendy's – up nearly 26% in yesterday's trading – added another 4.3% this morning.</p><p><blockquote><h3><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：</b></h3><b>1)Clover Health(CLOV)、Wendy's(WEN)</b>-这两只股票在昨天因社交媒体关注度增加而飙升后，在盘前交易中扩大了涨幅。Clover是一家医疗保险销售商，于10月份通过SPAC交易上市，过去六天股价上涨，周二飙升近86%。该股在盘前股价飙升24.2%，而Wendy's在昨天的交易中上涨了近26%，今天上午又上涨了4.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2)&nbsp;Campbell Soup(CPB) </b>– The food producer reported quarterly earnings of 57 cents per share, missing consensus by 9 cents a share. Revenue also missed forecasts as results lagged year-ago figures that were boosted by pandemic-related demand. Campbell also cut its full-year forecast, reflecting both those quarterly results and the recent sale of its Plum baby food and snacks business. Campbell shares tumbled 5.8% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>2）金宝汤（CPB）</b>–该食品生产商公布的季度收益为每股57美分，比市场预期低9美分。由于业绩落后于受大流行相关需求提振的去年同期数据，收入也未达到预期。金宝汤还下调了全年预期，反映了这些季度业绩以及最近出售其Plum婴儿食品和零食业务。金宝汤股价盘前下跌5.8%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3)&nbsp;Lordstown Motors(RIDE)</b> – Lordstown Motors said there was \"substantial doubt\" about its ability to continue as a going concern. The electric truck maker said in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing that it is having problems funding vehicle production. Lordstown plunged more than 16% yesterday ahead of the news, and slid another 4.2% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>3)洛兹敦汽车公司(RIDE)</b>-洛兹敦汽车公司表示，对其持续经营的能力存在“重大疑问”。这家电动卡车制造商在向美国证券交易委员会提交的文件中表示，它在为汽车生产提供资金方面遇到了问题。昨天消息传出前，洛兹敦股价暴跌超过16%，盘前交易中又下跌4.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4)&nbsp;Target(TGT) </b>– The retailer increased its quarterly dividend to 90 cents per share from 68 cents a share, a jump of 32%. The improved payout will go to shareholders of record as of Aug. 18, to be paid on Sept. 10.</p><p><blockquote><b>4）靶点（TGT）</b>-该零售商将季度股息从每股68美分提高到每股90美分，增幅为32%。改进后的派息将支付给截至8月18日登记在册的股东，并于9月10日支付。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5)&nbsp;Merck(MRK)</b> – The drugmaker struck an agreement to supply the government with molnupiravir, an oral treatment designed to treat mild to moderate cases of Covid-19. The drug is currently being evaluated in a phase 3 trial.</p><p><blockquote><b>5）默克（MRK）</b>–该制药商达成协议，向政府提供molnupiravir，这是一种旨在治疗轻度至中度Covid-19病例的口服治疗药物。该药物目前正在3期试验中进行评估。</blockquote></p><p> <b>6)&nbsp;Fastly(FSLY)</b> – Fastly issued an apology for Tuesday’s widespread internet outage, with the cloud computing company saying the incident was caused by a software bug that was triggered when a customer changed settings. Fastly rose 2.4% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>6)快速(FSLY)</b>-Fastly为周二的大范围互联网中断道歉，这家云计算公司表示，该事件是由客户更改设置时触发的软件错误引起的。Fastly盘前上涨2.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>7)&nbsp;Sherwin-Williams(SHW) </b>– Sherwin-Williams raised its sales and profit guidance for the year, as the paint maker sees pandemic-induced demand for its products continuing even as the pandemic recedes. The company is also raising its prices to deal with higher costs for raw materials. Sherwin-Williams fell 1.3% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>7）宣伟（SHW）</b>-宣伟上调了今年的销售和利润指引，因为该涂料制造商认为，即使疫情消退，疫情引发的对其产品的需求仍在继续。该公司还提高价格以应对原材料成本上涨。宣伟盘前下跌1.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>8)&nbsp;Casey’s General Stores(CASY)</b> – Casey’s reported quarterly earnings of $1.12 per share, beating the consensus estimate of 88 cents a share. The convenience store chain’s revenue exceeded estimates as well. Same-store sales, excluding gasoline purchases, rose 12.8% as customer traffic steadily increased.</p><p><blockquote><b>8)凯西综合商店(CASY)</b>–Casey报告的季度收益为每股1.12美元，超出了每股88美分的普遍预期。这家连锁便利店的收入也超出了预期。随着客流量稳步增加，不包括汽油购买的同店销售额增长了12.8%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>9)&nbsp;Fox Corp.(FOXA) </b>– Fox added 1.8% in the premarket following an upgrade to “overweight” from “equal weight” at Wells Fargo Securities, which feels the stock could benefit from Fox’s presence in sports gambling despite pressures from cord-cutting.</p><p><blockquote><b>9)福克斯公司(FOXA)</b>-富国银行证券(Wells Fargo Securities)将福克斯评级从“同等权重”上调至“跑赢大盘”，该公司认为，尽管面临裁员的压力，该股仍可能受益于福克斯在体育博彩领域的存在。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>10)&nbsp;Abercrombie &amp; Fitch(ANF)</b> – The apparel retailer was upgraded to “buy” from “hold” at Jefferies, which points to ongoing benefits from years of brand elevation efforts as well as an increase in profit margins. Abercrombie rose 2.9% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>10)Abercrombie&amp;Fitch(ANF)</b>-杰富瑞(Jefferies)将该服装零售商的评级从“持有”上调至“买入”，这表明多年来的品牌提升努力以及利润率的提高带来了持续的好处。Abercrombie在盘前交易中上涨2.9%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>11)&nbsp;GameStop(GME)</b> – The videogame retailer will report quarterly earnings after today’s closing bell. GameStop shares surged the past two days amid renewed buying in the so-called “meme” stocks.</p><p><blockquote><b>11）游戏驿站(GME)</b>-这家视频游戏零售商将在今天收盘后公布季度收益。过去两天，由于所谓“模因”股票的重新买盘，游戏驿站股价飙升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>12)&nbsp;Ferrari(RACE) </b>– Ferrari namedSTMicroelectronics(STM) executive Benedetto Vignaas its new CEO, filling a position that had been vacant for six months since Louis Camilleri retired as the automaker’s chief. Vigna – who runs chipmaker STMicro’s biggest division – will begin his new duties at Ferrari on Sept. 1.</p><p><blockquote><b>12）法拉利（比赛）</b>–法拉利任命意法半导体(STM)高管Benedetto Vignaa为新任首席执行官，填补自路易斯·卡米莱里(Louis Camilleri)从汽车制造商首席执行官职位上退休以来空缺了六个月的职位。维尼亚是芯片制造商意法半导体最大部门的负责人，他将于9月1日开始在法拉利履行新职责。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150769391","content_text":"Stock futures traded mixed Wednesday morning as investors considered more mixed data on the U.S. economic recovery.\nA resurgence in the social media-fueled \"meme stocks.\nNewest meme stock Clover Health is set to soar again.\nShares of major banks came under some pressure as bond yields sank to one-month lows.\n\n(June 9) U.S. stock index futures were little changed on Wednesday as a lack of clear catalysts kept trading slow, with investors awaiting fresh cues from inflation data this week and an upcoming Federal Reserve meeting.\nAt 7:48 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were down 54 points, or 0.16%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 0.5 points, or 0.01%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 30.25 points, or 0.22%.\n7:48 a.m. ET\nBut buying into so-called “meme stocks” by small-time retail investors continued, with the new social media favorite Clover Health surging 25.73% in premarket trade after jumping 85% to a record high on Tuesday.\n\nGameStop - the company most closely associated with the retail rally this year - rose 1.03% ahead of its quarterly results, due after the bell.\n\nWall Street indexes have moved little this week amid a dearth of cues, with most investors sticking to the sidelines ahead of key inflation data on Thursday.\nThe Fed’s meeting next week is also expected to shed more light on the bank’s policy tapering plans. While inflation has surged in recent months, a sluggish labor market is broadly expected to keep the bank dovish.\nStocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:\n1) Clover Health(CLOV),Wendy's(WEN) – The two stocksextended their gainsin premarket trading, after surging yesterday on increased social media attention. Clover – a seller of health-care insurance that went public via a SPAC deal in October – has risen for the past six days, capped by a nearly 86% surge Tuesday. It soared 24.2% in premarket action, while Wendy's – up nearly 26% in yesterday's trading – added another 4.3% this morning.\n2) Campbell Soup(CPB) – The food producer reported quarterly earnings of 57 cents per share, missing consensus by 9 cents a share. Revenue also missed forecasts as results lagged year-ago figures that were boosted by pandemic-related demand. Campbell also cut its full-year forecast, reflecting both those quarterly results and the recent sale of its Plum baby food and snacks business. Campbell shares tumbled 5.8% in the premarket.\n3) Lordstown Motors(RIDE) – Lordstown Motors said there was \"substantial doubt\" about its ability to continue as a going concern. The electric truck maker said in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing that it is having problems funding vehicle production. Lordstown plunged more than 16% yesterday ahead of the news, and slid another 4.2% in premarket trading.\n4) Target(TGT) – The retailer increased its quarterly dividend to 90 cents per share from 68 cents a share, a jump of 32%. The improved payout will go to shareholders of record as of Aug. 18, to be paid on Sept. 10.\n5) Merck(MRK) – The drugmaker struck an agreement to supply the government with molnupiravir, an oral treatment designed to treat mild to moderate cases of Covid-19. The drug is currently being evaluated in a phase 3 trial.\n6) Fastly(FSLY) – Fastly issued an apology for Tuesday’s widespread internet outage, with the cloud computing company saying the incident was caused by a software bug that was triggered when a customer changed settings. Fastly rose 2.4% in the premarket.\n7) Sherwin-Williams(SHW) – Sherwin-Williams raised its sales and profit guidance for the year, as the paint maker sees pandemic-induced demand for its products continuing even as the pandemic recedes. The company is also raising its prices to deal with higher costs for raw materials. Sherwin-Williams fell 1.3% in the premarket.\n8) Casey’s General Stores(CASY) – Casey’s reported quarterly earnings of $1.12 per share, beating the consensus estimate of 88 cents a share. The convenience store chain’s revenue exceeded estimates as well. Same-store sales, excluding gasoline purchases, rose 12.8% as customer traffic steadily increased.\n9) Fox Corp.(FOXA) – Fox added 1.8% in the premarket following an upgrade to “overweight” from “equal weight” at Wells Fargo Securities, which feels the stock could benefit from Fox’s presence in sports gambling despite pressures from cord-cutting.\n10) Abercrombie & Fitch(ANF) – The apparel retailer was upgraded to “buy” from “hold” at Jefferies, which points to ongoing benefits from years of brand elevation efforts as well as an increase in profit margins. Abercrombie rose 2.9% in premarket trading.\n11) GameStop(GME) – The videogame retailer will report quarterly earnings after today’s closing bell. GameStop shares surged the past two days amid renewed buying in the so-called “meme” stocks.\n12) Ferrari(RACE) – Ferrari namedSTMicroelectronics(STM) executive Benedetto Vignaas its new CEO, filling a position that had been vacant for six months since Louis Camilleri retired as the automaker’s chief. Vigna – who runs chipmaker STMicro’s biggest division – will begin his new duties at Ferrari on Sept. 1.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":258,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":178305233,"gmtCreate":1626786957022,"gmtModify":1633771065160,"author":{"id":"3583032727743539","authorId":"3583032727743539","name":"Scam","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583032727743539","idStr":"3583032727743539"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Honggan","listText":"Honggan","text":"Honggan","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/178305233","repostId":"1112457513","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112457513","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626785289,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1112457513?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-20 20:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"(Forward-Looking) US Building Permits Plunge To 8-Month Lows In June<blockquote>（前瞻）美国6月建筑许可骤降至8个月低点</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112457513","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Amid a slew of weak housing sales data, weak mortgage applications, crashing homebuyer sentiment, an","content":"<p>Amid a slew of weak housing sales data, weak mortgage applications, crashing homebuyer sentiment, and 11-month low homebuilder sentiment, analysts still expected both housing starts and permits to rise MoM in June... they were half right!</p><p><blockquote>在一系列疲软的房屋销售数据、疲软的抵押贷款申请、购房者情绪崩溃以及房屋建筑商情绪连续11个月低迷的情况下，分析师仍然预计6月份新屋开工和许可数量将环比上升...他们说对了一半！</blockquote></p><p> After a small downward revision in May, Housing Starts soared 6.3% MoM in June (massively beating expectations of +1.2% MoM), but... Building Permits, which are forward-looking of course, saw a third straight month of declines, plunging 5.1% MoM (far worse than the +0.7% MoM expected)...</p><p><blockquote>在5月份小幅下调后，6月份新屋开工量环比飙升6.3%（大大超出了环比+1.2%的预期），但是...建筑许可当然是前瞻性的，但连续第三个月下降，环比下降5.1%（远低于预期的+0.7%）...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b214cc5c7f50f8c1d773d1340ab8371\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"564\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> This pushed the Permits SAAR below Starts for the first time since Jan 2020, and to its weakest since Oct 2020...</p><p><blockquote>这使得萨尔的许可证自2020年1月以来首次低于开工水平，也是自2020年10月以来的最低水平...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f22146cea0299321e3b778b2c12f567\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"560\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> Under the hood, Single Family Starts rose 6.3% SAAR to 1.160MM, the highest since March, and Multi Family (rentals) Starts were up 6.8% to 474K, highest since July 2020...</p><p><blockquote>在引擎盖下，SAAR的单户住宅开工率上涨6.3%，至1160毫米，为3月份以来的最高水平，多户住宅（租赁）开工率上涨6.8%，至47.4万毫米，为2020年7月以来的最高水平...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53df9fc958c939cc72809a5e5afd0a0e\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"619\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> But Permits were far more ugly, with Single Family Permits down 6.3% to 1.063MM SAAR, lowest since August 2020; and Multi Family Permits down 1.6% to 483K SAAR, lowest since Dec 2020.</p><p><blockquote>但许可证要糟糕得多，单身家庭许可证下降了6.3%，至1063毫米萨尔，为2020年8月以来的最低水平；多家庭许可证下降1.6%，至48.3万萨尔，为2020年12月以来的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/069ebc904e3c351c7461b49c2e4abad5\" tg-width=\"872\" tg-height=\"560\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">This is not a pretty picture for the future.</p><p><blockquote>这不是一幅美好的未来图景。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Exorbitant materials costs, combined with shortages of land and labor, have thwarted developers seeking to ramp up construction.</b>Supply concerns and a slowdown in sales pushed builder confidence down to an 11-month low in July, a&nbsp;survey&nbsp;from the National Association of Home Builders showed Monday.</p><p><blockquote><b>高昂的材料成本，加上土地和劳动力的短缺，阻碍了寻求加快建设的开发商。</b>全国住宅建筑商协会周一的一项调查显示，供应担忧和销售放缓导致7月份建筑商信心降至11个月低点。</blockquote></p><p> An inventory crunch that followed solid demand last year has sent prices soaring, tempering buyer interest.<b>A&nbsp;record&nbsp;71% of consumers said higher prices were a reason why buying conditions have soured</b>, according to July data from the University of Michigan.</p><p><blockquote>去年需求强劲后出现库存紧缩，导致价格飙升，抑制了买家的兴趣。<b>创纪录的71%的消费者表示，价格上涨是购买条件恶化的原因</b>，根据密歇根大学7月份的数据。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>(Forward-Looking) US Building Permits Plunge To 8-Month Lows In June<blockquote>（前瞻）美国6月建筑许可骤降至8个月低点</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n(Forward-Looking) US Building Permits Plunge To 8-Month Lows In June<blockquote>（前瞻）美国6月建筑许可骤降至8个月低点</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-20 20:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Amid a slew of weak housing sales data, weak mortgage applications, crashing homebuyer sentiment, and 11-month low homebuilder sentiment, analysts still expected both housing starts and permits to rise MoM in June... they were half right!</p><p><blockquote>在一系列疲软的房屋销售数据、疲软的抵押贷款申请、购房者情绪崩溃以及房屋建筑商情绪连续11个月低迷的情况下，分析师仍然预计6月份新屋开工和许可数量将环比上升...他们说对了一半！</blockquote></p><p> After a small downward revision in May, Housing Starts soared 6.3% MoM in June (massively beating expectations of +1.2% MoM), but... Building Permits, which are forward-looking of course, saw a third straight month of declines, plunging 5.1% MoM (far worse than the +0.7% MoM expected)...</p><p><blockquote>在5月份小幅下调后，6月份新屋开工量环比飙升6.3%（大大超出了环比+1.2%的预期），但是...建筑许可当然是前瞻性的，但连续第三个月下降，环比下降5.1%（远低于预期的+0.7%）...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b214cc5c7f50f8c1d773d1340ab8371\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"564\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> This pushed the Permits SAAR below Starts for the first time since Jan 2020, and to its weakest since Oct 2020...</p><p><blockquote>这使得萨尔的许可证自2020年1月以来首次低于开工水平，也是自2020年10月以来的最低水平...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f22146cea0299321e3b778b2c12f567\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"560\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> Under the hood, Single Family Starts rose 6.3% SAAR to 1.160MM, the highest since March, and Multi Family (rentals) Starts were up 6.8% to 474K, highest since July 2020...</p><p><blockquote>在引擎盖下，SAAR的单户住宅开工率上涨6.3%，至1160毫米，为3月份以来的最高水平，多户住宅（租赁）开工率上涨6.8%，至47.4万毫米，为2020年7月以来的最高水平...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53df9fc958c939cc72809a5e5afd0a0e\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"619\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> But Permits were far more ugly, with Single Family Permits down 6.3% to 1.063MM SAAR, lowest since August 2020; and Multi Family Permits down 1.6% to 483K SAAR, lowest since Dec 2020.</p><p><blockquote>但许可证要糟糕得多，单身家庭许可证下降了6.3%，至1063毫米萨尔，为2020年8月以来的最低水平；多家庭许可证下降1.6%，至48.3万萨尔，为2020年12月以来的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/069ebc904e3c351c7461b49c2e4abad5\" tg-width=\"872\" tg-height=\"560\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">This is not a pretty picture for the future.</p><p><blockquote>这不是一幅美好的未来图景。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Exorbitant materials costs, combined with shortages of land and labor, have thwarted developers seeking to ramp up construction.</b>Supply concerns and a slowdown in sales pushed builder confidence down to an 11-month low in July, a&nbsp;survey&nbsp;from the National Association of Home Builders showed Monday.</p><p><blockquote><b>高昂的材料成本，加上土地和劳动力的短缺，阻碍了寻求加快建设的开发商。</b>全国住宅建筑商协会周一的一项调查显示，供应担忧和销售放缓导致7月份建筑商信心降至11个月低点。</blockquote></p><p> An inventory crunch that followed solid demand last year has sent prices soaring, tempering buyer interest.<b>A&nbsp;record&nbsp;71% of consumers said higher prices were a reason why buying conditions have soured</b>, according to July data from the University of Michigan.</p><p><blockquote>去年需求强劲后出现库存紧缩，导致价格飙升，抑制了买家的兴趣。<b>创纪录的71%的消费者表示，价格上涨是购买条件恶化的原因</b>，根据密歇根大学7月份的数据。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/forward-looking-us-building-permits-plunge-8-month-lows-june\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/forward-looking-us-building-permits-plunge-8-month-lows-june","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112457513","content_text":"Amid a slew of weak housing sales data, weak mortgage applications, crashing homebuyer sentiment, and 11-month low homebuilder sentiment, analysts still expected both housing starts and permits to rise MoM in June... they were half right!\nAfter a small downward revision in May, Housing Starts soared 6.3% MoM in June (massively beating expectations of +1.2% MoM), but... Building Permits, which are forward-looking of course, saw a third straight month of declines, plunging 5.1% MoM (far worse than the +0.7% MoM expected)...\nSource: Bloomberg\nThis pushed the Permits SAAR below Starts for the first time since Jan 2020, and to its weakest since Oct 2020...\nSource: Bloomberg\nUnder the hood, Single Family Starts rose 6.3% SAAR to 1.160MM, the highest since March, and Multi Family (rentals) Starts were up 6.8% to 474K, highest since July 2020...\n\nBut Permits were far more ugly, with Single Family Permits down 6.3% to 1.063MM SAAR, lowest since August 2020; and Multi Family Permits down 1.6% to 483K SAAR, lowest since Dec 2020.\nThis is not a pretty picture for the future.\nExorbitant materials costs, combined with shortages of land and labor, have thwarted developers seeking to ramp up construction.Supply concerns and a slowdown in sales pushed builder confidence down to an 11-month low in July, a survey from the National Association of Home Builders showed Monday.\nAn inventory crunch that followed solid demand last year has sent prices soaring, tempering buyer interest.A record 71% of consumers said higher prices were a reason why buying conditions have soured, according to July data from the University of Michigan.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":339,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}