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2021-08-29

Huat

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2021-08-04

Huat

Treasury To Start Reducing Bond Auction Sizes As Soon As November<blockquote>财政部最快将于11月开始缩减债券拍卖规模</blockquote>

2021-07-24

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2021-07-20

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2021-06-01

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2021-09-05

Huat

Beat the market with this quant system that’s very bullish on stocks at record highs<blockquote>利用这个非常看好历史新高股票的量化系统击败市场</blockquote>

2021-08-16

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2021-08-06

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2021-07-25

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2021-07-21

Huat huat

Jeff Bezos Reveals Blue Origin Has Sold $100M Worth Of Tickets, 'Demand Is Very, Very High'<blockquote>杰夫·贝索斯透露蓝色起源已售出价值1亿美元的门票，“需求非常非常高”</blockquote>

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10:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Dennis Gartman Says ‘Bear Market Is Required’ as Stocks Over-Valued<blockquote>丹尼斯·加特曼表示，由于股市估值过高，“熊市是必需的”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115225272","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- U.S. equities investors, having enjoyed a lengthy run of rich valuations during the c","content":"<p>(Bloomberg) -- U.S. equities investors, having enjoyed a lengthy run of rich valuations during the course of the pandemic, need to pull back, especially from growth stocks as the Federal Reserve begins to tighten monetary policy, according to Dennis Gartman, University of Akron Endowment Chairman.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）——阿克伦大学捐赠基金主席丹尼斯·加特曼表示，在疫情期间享受了长期高估值的美国股票投资者需要回调，尤其是随着美联储开始收紧货币政策，从成长型股票中回调。</blockquote></p><p> “A bear market is required at this point,” Gartman said Monday on Bloomberg Radio. “We had an expansion for a long period of time and I think over the course of next year, he or she who loses the least amount of money will be the winner.”</p><p><blockquote>“目前需要熊市，”加特曼周一在彭博电台表示。“我们进行了很长一段时间的扩张，我认为在明年的过程中，损失最少的人将成为赢家。”</blockquote></p><p> Though the S&amp;P 500 Index and Nasdaq 100 Index are both up over 20% in 2021, market participants have turned their attention to elevated inflation and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish tilt, prompting hedge funds to ditch equities at the fastest rate in 20 months. In fact, the endowment where Gartman helps manage investments plans to follow their lead and cut around 10% of equity exposure before year’s end.</p><p><blockquote>尽管标普500指数和纳斯达克100指数在2021年均上涨超过20%，但市场参与者已将注意力转向通胀上升和美联储主席Jerome Powell的鹰派倾向，促使对冲基金以20个月来最快的速度抛售股市。事实上，加特曼帮助管理投资的捐赠基金计划效仿他们的做法，在年底前削减约10%的股票敞口。</blockquote></p><p> In a wide-ranging interview about stock market volatility and “over-valued” equities, the former publisher of the influential “The Gartman Letter” predicted that prices should go lower within the next year and the 10-year Treasury yield will rise to 2-3% over the next several years.</p><p><blockquote>在一次有关股市波动和“高估”股票的广泛采访中，颇具影响力的《加特曼信》的前出版商预测，明年价格应该会走低，10年期国债收益率将上升至未来几年的2-3%。</blockquote></p><p> “The Fed clearly will be tightening monetary policy rather than being as expansionary as it has been, and stock prices are probably headed -- the best that one can say is, ‘Get the trend right’ and I think that the trend is now to the down, not the upside.”</p><p><blockquote>“美联储显然将收紧货币政策，而不是像以前那样扩张，股价可能会走向——人们能说的最好的话就是，‘把握好趋势’，我认为现在的趋势是向下，而不是向上。”</blockquote></p><p> As for where investors should seek refuge to cope with a less accommodative central bank, Gartman recommends high-dividend stocks and to “avoid the high-tech stuff Cathie Wood et al. have been exposed to.” Wood is founder and chief executive officer of Ark Investment Management LLC.</p><p><blockquote>至于投资者应该在哪里寻求庇护以应对不太宽松的央行，加特曼建议购买高股息股票，并“避免凯西·伍德等人接触过的高科技产品”。伍德是方舟投资管理有限责任公司的创始人兼首席执行官。</blockquote></p><p> “They’re having a rather difficult time and I think they’re going to have an even more difficult time over the course of the next several months,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“他们正在经历一段相当困难的时期，我认为在接下来的几个月里他们将会经历更加困难的时期，”他说。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dennis Gartman Says ‘Bear Market Is Required’ as Stocks Over-Valued<blockquote>丹尼斯·加特曼表示，由于股市估值过高，“熊市是必需的”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDennis Gartman Says ‘Bear Market Is Required’ as Stocks Over-Valued<blockquote>丹尼斯·加特曼表示，由于股市估值过高，“熊市是必需的”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Bloomberg</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-07 10:26</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Bloomberg) -- U.S. equities investors, having enjoyed a lengthy run of rich valuations during the course of the pandemic, need to pull back, especially from growth stocks as the Federal Reserve begins to tighten monetary policy, according to Dennis Gartman, University of Akron Endowment Chairman.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）——阿克伦大学捐赠基金主席丹尼斯·加特曼表示，在疫情期间享受了长期高估值的美国股票投资者需要回调，尤其是随着美联储开始收紧货币政策，从成长型股票中回调。</blockquote></p><p> “A bear market is required at this point,” Gartman said Monday on Bloomberg Radio. “We had an expansion for a long period of time and I think over the course of next year, he or she who loses the least amount of money will be the winner.”</p><p><blockquote>“目前需要熊市，”加特曼周一在彭博电台表示。“我们进行了很长一段时间的扩张，我认为在明年的过程中，损失最少的人将成为赢家。”</blockquote></p><p> Though the S&amp;P 500 Index and Nasdaq 100 Index are both up over 20% in 2021, market participants have turned their attention to elevated inflation and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish tilt, prompting hedge funds to ditch equities at the fastest rate in 20 months. In fact, the endowment where Gartman helps manage investments plans to follow their lead and cut around 10% of equity exposure before year’s end.</p><p><blockquote>尽管标普500指数和纳斯达克100指数在2021年均上涨超过20%，但市场参与者已将注意力转向通胀上升和美联储主席Jerome Powell的鹰派倾向，促使对冲基金以20个月来最快的速度抛售股市。事实上，加特曼帮助管理投资的捐赠基金计划效仿他们的做法，在年底前削减约10%的股票敞口。</blockquote></p><p> In a wide-ranging interview about stock market volatility and “over-valued” equities, the former publisher of the influential “The Gartman Letter” predicted that prices should go lower within the next year and the 10-year Treasury yield will rise to 2-3% over the next several years.</p><p><blockquote>在一次有关股市波动和“高估”股票的广泛采访中，颇具影响力的《加特曼信》的前出版商预测，明年价格应该会走低，10年期国债收益率将上升至未来几年的2-3%。</blockquote></p><p> “The Fed clearly will be tightening monetary policy rather than being as expansionary as it has been, and stock prices are probably headed -- the best that one can say is, ‘Get the trend right’ and I think that the trend is now to the down, not the upside.”</p><p><blockquote>“美联储显然将收紧货币政策，而不是像以前那样扩张，股价可能会走向——人们能说的最好的话就是，‘把握好趋势’，我认为现在的趋势是向下，而不是向上。”</blockquote></p><p> As for where investors should seek refuge to cope with a less accommodative central bank, Gartman recommends high-dividend stocks and to “avoid the high-tech stuff Cathie Wood et al. have been exposed to.” Wood is founder and chief executive officer of Ark Investment Management LLC.</p><p><blockquote>至于投资者应该在哪里寻求庇护以应对不太宽松的央行，加特曼建议购买高股息股票，并“避免凯西·伍德等人接触过的高科技产品”。伍德是方舟投资管理有限责任公司的创始人兼首席执行官。</blockquote></p><p> “They’re having a rather difficult time and I think they’re going to have an even more difficult time over the course of the next several months,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“他们正在经历一段相当困难的时期，我认为在接下来的几个月里他们将会经历更加困难的时期，”他说。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dennis-gartman-says-bear-market-163928843.html\">Bloomberg</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dennis-gartman-says-bear-market-163928843.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115225272","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- U.S. equities investors, having enjoyed a lengthy run of rich valuations during the course of the pandemic, need to pull back, especially from growth stocks as the Federal Reserve begins to tighten monetary policy, according to Dennis Gartman, University of Akron Endowment Chairman.\n“A bear market is required at this point,” Gartman said Monday on Bloomberg Radio. “We had an expansion for a long period of time and I think over the course of next year, he or she who loses the least amount of money will be the winner.”\nThough the S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq 100 Index are both up over 20% in 2021, market participants have turned their attention to elevated inflation and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish tilt, prompting hedge funds to ditch equities at the fastest rate in 20 months. In fact, the endowment where Gartman helps manage investments plans to follow their lead and cut around 10% of equity exposure before year’s end.\nIn a wide-ranging interview about stock market volatility and “over-valued” equities, the former publisher of the influential “The Gartman Letter” predicted that prices should go lower within the next year and the 10-year Treasury yield will rise to 2-3% over the next several years.\n“The Fed clearly will be tightening monetary policy rather than being as expansionary as it has been, and stock prices are probably headed -- the best that one can say is, ‘Get the trend right’ and I think that the trend is now to the down, not the upside.”\nAs for where investors should seek refuge to cope with a less accommodative central bank, Gartman recommends high-dividend stocks and to “avoid the high-tech stuff Cathie Wood et al. have been exposed to.” Wood is founder and chief executive officer of Ark Investment Management LLC.\n“They’re having a rather difficult time and I think they’re going to have an even more difficult time over the course of the next several months,” he said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3884,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":601220380,"gmtCreate":1638536942454,"gmtModify":1638536942454,"author":{"id":"3582928782122574","authorId":"3582928782122574","name":"Hoba","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59c2266c2e959396b467872738c290cc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582928782122574","idStr":"3582928782122574"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Still better than grab","listText":"Still better than grab","text":"Still better than grab","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/601220380","repostId":"1175699025","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175699025","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638535445,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175699025?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-03 20:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia’s Purchase of Arm Is (Likely) Dead. What Comes Next?<blockquote>英伟达对Arm的收购（很可能）已经胎死腹中。接下来会发生什么？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175699025","media":"Barrons","summary":"Nvidia‘s $40 billion purchase of Arm—heralded as the biggest deal in the history of the semiconducto","content":"<p>Nvidia‘s $40 billion purchase of Arm—heralded as the biggest deal in the history of the semiconductor industry—looks dead in the water.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达以400亿美元收购Arm的交易——被誉为半导体行业历史上最大的交易——看起来已经泡汤了。</blockquote></p><p> The Federal Trade Commission sued to block the deal Thursday, citing competition concerns and all but killing the prospect of Nvidia (ticker: NVDA) taking over control of the leading chip designer from&nbsp;SoftBank&nbsp;(SFTBY). And while Nvidia has vowed to press ahead, the transaction faces further scrutiny in Europe and China.</p><p><blockquote>美国联邦贸易委员会周四提起诉讼，要求阻止该交易，理由是竞争担忧，并且几乎扼杀了英伟达（股票代码：NVDA）从软银（SFTBY）手中接管这家领先芯片设计公司的前景。尽管英伟达发誓要继续推进，但该交易在欧洲和中国面临进一步审查。</blockquote></p><p> So what comes next?</p><p><blockquote>那么接下来会发生什么？</blockquote></p><p> Following news of the FTC’s hammer-blow, analysts at Citibank slashed the probability of the deal going through to 5% from 30%. The chances used to be slim. Now they’re very slim.</p><p><blockquote>在联邦贸易委员会重磅打击的消息传出后，花旗银行分析师将交易通过的可能性从30%下调至5%。以前机会很小。现在它们非常苗条。</blockquote></p><p> “Nobody thinks this is going to close,” Stacy Rasgon, an analyst at Bernstein Research, told MarketWatch Thursday. “The stock didn’t even bobble when the news came out.”</p><p><blockquote>伯恩斯坦研究公司(Bernstein Research)分析师斯泰西·拉斯贡(Stacy Rasgon)周四对MarketWatch表示：“没有人认为这会结束。”“当消息传出时，该股甚至没有下跌。”</blockquote></p><p> That underscores the fact that analysts have been pessimistic about this for a while.</p><p><blockquote>这凸显了分析师对此持悲观态度已有一段时间的事实。</blockquote></p><p> Last month, Wedbush analyst Matt Bryson outlined how the broker and investment bank continued to believe the proposed coupling wouldn’t be approved. He cited not just regulatory pressure in the U.S., but also China.</p><p><blockquote>上个月，Wedbush分析师马特·布赖森(Matt Bryson)概述了该经纪商和投资银行如何仍然认为拟议的耦合不会获得批准。他不仅提到了美国的监管压力，还提到了中国的监管压力。</blockquote></p><p> “Any concerns about the Arm acquisition closing seem to be having little impact on the stock,” Bryson said at the time. “A lack of an Arm acquisition might have little impact on Nvidia’s momentum.”</p><p><blockquote>布赖森当时表示：“对Arm收购完成的任何担忧似乎对该股影响不大。”“没有收购Arm可能对英伟达的势头影响不大。”</blockquote></p><p> Remember: the metaverse, and the potentially lucrative future in virtual worlds that Nvidia is helping create, wasn’t a consideration for investors when the Arm deal was announced.</p><p><blockquote>请记住：当宣布Arm交易时，投资者并没有考虑元宇宙以及英伟达正在帮助创造的虚拟世界中潜在的利润丰厚的未来。</blockquote></p><p> Since then, Nvidia’s stock has climbed a staggering 165%, from around $120 a share to $320, on the back of a wave of growth optimism covering data centers and cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and, of course, the metaverse.</p><p><blockquote>从那时起，在涵盖数据中心和云计算、人工智能，当然还有元宇宙的增长乐观浪潮的推动下，英伟达的股价上涨了惊人的165%，从每股120美元左右上涨至320美元。</blockquote></p><p> But it’s not over ‘til it’s over. The deal is still alive, barely, for now.</p><p><blockquote>但直到结束才算结束。目前，这笔交易仍然有效，勉强有效。</blockquote></p><p> The thrust of the concerns from the FTC and other regulators is that Arm’s neutrality in the chip industry would be compromised under Nvidia’s ownership. Arm licenses intellectual property to the likes of&nbsp;Apple&nbsp;(AAPL),Amazon&nbsp;(AMZN),Qualcomm&nbsp;(QCOM) and others.</p><p><blockquote>联邦贸易委员会和其他监管机构担忧的主旨是，在英伟达的所有权下，Arm在芯片行业的中立性将受到损害。Arm将知识产权授权给苹果(AAPL)、亚马逊(AMZN)、高通(QCOM)等公司。</blockquote></p><p> If Nvidia owns Arm, the competition concerns go, then it would have access to competitively sensitive information about Arm’s clients, and Arm would be unlikely to pursue innovations that challenge Nvidia’s interests.</p><p><blockquote>如果英伟达拥有Arm，竞争担忧就会消失，那么它将能够获得有关Arm客户的竞争敏感信息，而Arm不太可能追求挑战英伟达利益的创新。</blockquote></p><p> Can these concerns really be addressed?</p><p><blockquote>这些担忧真的能得到解决吗？</blockquote></p><p> “We view a potential path forward if Nvidia can present remedies that, among other options, might include creating a ‘Chinese Wall’ between the research and development engine and Arm business contracts in order to ease the regulatory antitrust concerns,” Citibank analysts Atif Malik and Amanda Scarnati said.</p><p><blockquote>花旗银行分析师Atif表示：“如果英伟达能够提出补救措施，我们认为这是一条潜在的前进道路，其中包括在研发引擎和Arm业务合同之间建立一堵‘中国墙’，以缓解监管反垄断担忧。”马利克和阿曼达·斯卡纳蒂说道。</blockquote></p><p> A dead deal is likely to hurt SoftBank the most. While the Japanese technology investor would get to keep the $2 billion Nvidia paid up front, which includes a $1.25 billion breakup fee, the $40 billion ticket price actually represented a whole lot more.</p><p><blockquote>一笔死交易对软银的伤害可能最大。虽然这家日本科技投资者将保留英伟达预先支付的20亿美元，其中包括12.5亿美元的分手费，但400亿美元的票价实际上意味着更多。</blockquote></p><p> That $40 billion figure included what, at the time, was 44.3 million Nvidia shares valued at some $21.5 billion. Since then, Nvidia’s stock has torn higher, making the stock part of a cash-and-stock deal a lot more lucrative.</p><p><blockquote>这400亿美元的数字包括当时4430万股Nvidia股票，价值约215亿美元。此后，英伟达的股价一路走高，使得现金加股票交易的股票利润更高。</blockquote></p><p> Nvidia stock was 0.8% lower in premarket trading Friday, slightly outpacing declines in Nasdaq 100 futures.</p><p><blockquote>周五盘前交易中，英伟达股价下跌0.8%，略高于纳斯达克100指数期货的跌幅。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia’s Purchase of Arm Is (Likely) Dead. What Comes Next?<blockquote>英伟达对Arm的收购（很可能）已经胎死腹中。接下来会发生什么？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia’s Purchase of Arm Is (Likely) Dead. What Comes Next?<blockquote>英伟达对Arm的收购（很可能）已经胎死腹中。接下来会发生什么？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-03 20:44</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Nvidia‘s $40 billion purchase of Arm—heralded as the biggest deal in the history of the semiconductor industry—looks dead in the water.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达以400亿美元收购Arm的交易——被誉为半导体行业历史上最大的交易——看起来已经泡汤了。</blockquote></p><p> The Federal Trade Commission sued to block the deal Thursday, citing competition concerns and all but killing the prospect of Nvidia (ticker: NVDA) taking over control of the leading chip designer from&nbsp;SoftBank&nbsp;(SFTBY). And while Nvidia has vowed to press ahead, the transaction faces further scrutiny in Europe and China.</p><p><blockquote>美国联邦贸易委员会周四提起诉讼，要求阻止该交易，理由是竞争担忧，并且几乎扼杀了英伟达（股票代码：NVDA）从软银（SFTBY）手中接管这家领先芯片设计公司的前景。尽管英伟达发誓要继续推进，但该交易在欧洲和中国面临进一步审查。</blockquote></p><p> So what comes next?</p><p><blockquote>那么接下来会发生什么？</blockquote></p><p> Following news of the FTC’s hammer-blow, analysts at Citibank slashed the probability of the deal going through to 5% from 30%. The chances used to be slim. Now they’re very slim.</p><p><blockquote>在联邦贸易委员会重磅打击的消息传出后，花旗银行分析师将交易通过的可能性从30%下调至5%。以前机会很小。现在它们非常苗条。</blockquote></p><p> “Nobody thinks this is going to close,” Stacy Rasgon, an analyst at Bernstein Research, told MarketWatch Thursday. “The stock didn’t even bobble when the news came out.”</p><p><blockquote>伯恩斯坦研究公司(Bernstein Research)分析师斯泰西·拉斯贡(Stacy Rasgon)周四对MarketWatch表示：“没有人认为这会结束。”“当消息传出时，该股甚至没有下跌。”</blockquote></p><p> That underscores the fact that analysts have been pessimistic about this for a while.</p><p><blockquote>这凸显了分析师对此持悲观态度已有一段时间的事实。</blockquote></p><p> Last month, Wedbush analyst Matt Bryson outlined how the broker and investment bank continued to believe the proposed coupling wouldn’t be approved. He cited not just regulatory pressure in the U.S., but also China.</p><p><blockquote>上个月，Wedbush分析师马特·布赖森(Matt Bryson)概述了该经纪商和投资银行如何仍然认为拟议的耦合不会获得批准。他不仅提到了美国的监管压力，还提到了中国的监管压力。</blockquote></p><p> “Any concerns about the Arm acquisition closing seem to be having little impact on the stock,” Bryson said at the time. “A lack of an Arm acquisition might have little impact on Nvidia’s momentum.”</p><p><blockquote>布赖森当时表示：“对Arm收购完成的任何担忧似乎对该股影响不大。”“没有收购Arm可能对英伟达的势头影响不大。”</blockquote></p><p> Remember: the metaverse, and the potentially lucrative future in virtual worlds that Nvidia is helping create, wasn’t a consideration for investors when the Arm deal was announced.</p><p><blockquote>请记住：当宣布Arm交易时，投资者并没有考虑元宇宙以及英伟达正在帮助创造的虚拟世界中潜在的利润丰厚的未来。</blockquote></p><p> Since then, Nvidia’s stock has climbed a staggering 165%, from around $120 a share to $320, on the back of a wave of growth optimism covering data centers and cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and, of course, the metaverse.</p><p><blockquote>从那时起，在涵盖数据中心和云计算、人工智能，当然还有元宇宙的增长乐观浪潮的推动下，英伟达的股价上涨了惊人的165%，从每股120美元左右上涨至320美元。</blockquote></p><p> But it’s not over ‘til it’s over. The deal is still alive, barely, for now.</p><p><blockquote>但直到结束才算结束。目前，这笔交易仍然有效，勉强有效。</blockquote></p><p> The thrust of the concerns from the FTC and other regulators is that Arm’s neutrality in the chip industry would be compromised under Nvidia’s ownership. Arm licenses intellectual property to the likes of&nbsp;Apple&nbsp;(AAPL),Amazon&nbsp;(AMZN),Qualcomm&nbsp;(QCOM) and others.</p><p><blockquote>联邦贸易委员会和其他监管机构担忧的主旨是，在英伟达的所有权下，Arm在芯片行业的中立性将受到损害。Arm将知识产权授权给苹果(AAPL)、亚马逊(AMZN)、高通(QCOM)等公司。</blockquote></p><p> If Nvidia owns Arm, the competition concerns go, then it would have access to competitively sensitive information about Arm’s clients, and Arm would be unlikely to pursue innovations that challenge Nvidia’s interests.</p><p><blockquote>如果英伟达拥有Arm，竞争担忧就会消失，那么它将能够获得有关Arm客户的竞争敏感信息，而Arm不太可能追求挑战英伟达利益的创新。</blockquote></p><p> Can these concerns really be addressed?</p><p><blockquote>这些担忧真的能得到解决吗？</blockquote></p><p> “We view a potential path forward if Nvidia can present remedies that, among other options, might include creating a ‘Chinese Wall’ between the research and development engine and Arm business contracts in order to ease the regulatory antitrust concerns,” Citibank analysts Atif Malik and Amanda Scarnati said.</p><p><blockquote>花旗银行分析师Atif表示：“如果英伟达能够提出补救措施，我们认为这是一条潜在的前进道路，其中包括在研发引擎和Arm业务合同之间建立一堵‘中国墙’，以缓解监管反垄断担忧。”马利克和阿曼达·斯卡纳蒂说道。</blockquote></p><p> A dead deal is likely to hurt SoftBank the most. While the Japanese technology investor would get to keep the $2 billion Nvidia paid up front, which includes a $1.25 billion breakup fee, the $40 billion ticket price actually represented a whole lot more.</p><p><blockquote>一笔死交易对软银的伤害可能最大。虽然这家日本科技投资者将保留英伟达预先支付的20亿美元，其中包括12.5亿美元的分手费，但400亿美元的票价实际上意味着更多。</blockquote></p><p> That $40 billion figure included what, at the time, was 44.3 million Nvidia shares valued at some $21.5 billion. Since then, Nvidia’s stock has torn higher, making the stock part of a cash-and-stock deal a lot more lucrative.</p><p><blockquote>这400亿美元的数字包括当时4430万股Nvidia股票，价值约215亿美元。此后，英伟达的股价一路走高，使得现金加股票交易的股票利润更高。</blockquote></p><p> Nvidia stock was 0.8% lower in premarket trading Friday, slightly outpacing declines in Nasdaq 100 futures.</p><p><blockquote>周五盘前交易中，英伟达股价下跌0.8%，略高于纳斯达克100指数期货的跌幅。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/nvidia-nvda-arm-acquisition-ftc-51638533956?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/nvidia-nvda-arm-acquisition-ftc-51638533956?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175699025","content_text":"Nvidia‘s $40 billion purchase of Arm—heralded as the biggest deal in the history of the semiconductor industry—looks dead in the water.\nThe Federal Trade Commission sued to block the deal Thursday, citing competition concerns and all but killing the prospect of Nvidia (ticker: NVDA) taking over control of the leading chip designer from SoftBank (SFTBY). And while Nvidia has vowed to press ahead, the transaction faces further scrutiny in Europe and China.\nSo what comes next?\nFollowing news of the FTC’s hammer-blow, analysts at Citibank slashed the probability of the deal going through to 5% from 30%. The chances used to be slim. Now they’re very slim.\n“Nobody thinks this is going to close,” Stacy Rasgon, an analyst at Bernstein Research, told MarketWatch Thursday. “The stock didn’t even bobble when the news came out.”\nThat underscores the fact that analysts have been pessimistic about this for a while.\nLast month, Wedbush analyst Matt Bryson outlined how the broker and investment bank continued to believe the proposed coupling wouldn’t be approved. He cited not just regulatory pressure in the U.S., but also China.\n“Any concerns about the Arm acquisition closing seem to be having little impact on the stock,” Bryson said at the time. “A lack of an Arm acquisition might have little impact on Nvidia’s momentum.”\nRemember: the metaverse, and the potentially lucrative future in virtual worlds that Nvidia is helping create, wasn’t a consideration for investors when the Arm deal was announced.\nSince then, Nvidia’s stock has climbed a staggering 165%, from around $120 a share to $320, on the back of a wave of growth optimism covering data centers and cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and, of course, the metaverse.\nBut it’s not over ‘til it’s over. The deal is still alive, barely, for now.\nThe thrust of the concerns from the FTC and other regulators is that Arm’s neutrality in the chip industry would be compromised under Nvidia’s ownership. Arm licenses intellectual property to the likes of Apple (AAPL),Amazon (AMZN),Qualcomm (QCOM) and others.\nIf Nvidia owns Arm, the competition concerns go, then it would have access to competitively sensitive information about Arm’s clients, and Arm would be unlikely to pursue innovations that challenge Nvidia’s interests.\nCan these concerns really be addressed?\n“We view a potential path forward if Nvidia can present remedies that, among other options, might include creating a ‘Chinese Wall’ between the research and development engine and Arm business contracts in order to ease the regulatory antitrust concerns,” Citibank analysts Atif Malik and Amanda Scarnati said.\nA dead deal is likely to hurt SoftBank the most. While the Japanese technology investor would get to keep the $2 billion Nvidia paid up front, which includes a $1.25 billion breakup fee, the $40 billion ticket price actually represented a whole lot more.\nThat $40 billion figure included what, at the time, was 44.3 million Nvidia shares valued at some $21.5 billion. Since then, Nvidia’s stock has torn higher, making the stock part of a cash-and-stock deal a lot more lucrative.\nNvidia stock was 0.8% lower in premarket trading Friday, slightly outpacing declines in Nasdaq 100 futures.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2145,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":603177453,"gmtCreate":1638385195061,"gmtModify":1638385195159,"author":{"id":"3582928782122574","authorId":"3582928782122574","name":"Hoba","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59c2266c2e959396b467872738c290cc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582928782122574","idStr":"3582928782122574"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Huat","listText":"Huat","text":"Huat","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/603177453","repostId":"2188680355","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1795,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":877149133,"gmtCreate":1637903168279,"gmtModify":1637903168279,"author":{"id":"3582928782122574","authorId":"3582928782122574","name":"Hoba","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59c2266c2e959396b467872738c290cc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582928782122574","idStr":"3582928782122574"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Huat","listText":"Huat","text":"Huat","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/877149133","repostId":"1123673637","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3723,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":873225830,"gmtCreate":1636950775795,"gmtModify":1636950775795,"author":{"id":"3582928782122574","authorId":"3582928782122574","name":"Hoba","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59c2266c2e959396b467872738c290cc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582928782122574","idStr":"3582928782122574"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Huat","listText":"Huat","text":"Huat","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873225830","repostId":"1109952016","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109952016","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1636945464,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1109952016?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-15 11:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Netflix Cozying Up To Apple By Letting It Have A Share Of Gaming-Revenue Pie, Says Mark Gurman<blockquote>Mark Gurman表示，Netflix通过让苹果分享游戏收入蛋糕来讨好它</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109952016","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Users of some Apple Inc NFLX devices got a taste of Netflix Inc gaming last week — but in a move ter","content":"<p><div> Users of some Apple Inc NFLX devices got a taste of Netflix Inc gaming last week — but in a move termed “surprising” by journalist Mark Gurman, the streaming giant has cozied up to the iPhone maker. ...</p><p><blockquote><div>一些苹果公司NFLX设备的用户上周尝到了网飞公司游戏的滋味——但在记者Mark Gurman称之为“令人惊讶”的举动中，这家流媒体巨头向iPhone制造商示好。...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/11/24083308/netflix-cozying-up-to-apple-by-letting-it-have-a-share-of-gaming-revenue-pie-says-m\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/11/24083308/netflix-cozying-up-to-apple-by-letting-it-have-a-share-of-gaming-revenue-pie-says-m\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Netflix Cozying Up To Apple By Letting It Have A Share Of Gaming-Revenue Pie, Says Mark Gurman<blockquote>Mark Gurman表示，Netflix通过让苹果分享游戏收入蛋糕来讨好它</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNetflix Cozying Up To Apple By Letting It Have A Share Of Gaming-Revenue Pie, Says Mark Gurman<blockquote>Mark Gurman表示，Netflix通过让苹果分享游戏收入蛋糕来讨好它</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Benzinga</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-15 11:04</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Users of some Apple Inc NFLX devices got a taste of Netflix Inc gaming last week — but in a move termed “surprising” by journalist Mark Gurman, the streaming giant has cozied up to the iPhone maker. ...</p><p><blockquote><div>一些苹果公司NFLX设备的用户上周尝到了网飞公司游戏的滋味——但在记者Mark Gurman称之为“令人惊讶”的举动中，这家流媒体巨头向iPhone制造商示好。...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/11/24083308/netflix-cozying-up-to-apple-by-letting-it-have-a-share-of-gaming-revenue-pie-says-m\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/11/24083308/netflix-cozying-up-to-apple-by-letting-it-have-a-share-of-gaming-revenue-pie-says-m\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/11/24083308/netflix-cozying-up-to-apple-by-letting-it-have-a-share-of-gaming-revenue-pie-says-m\">Benzinga</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NFLX":"奈飞"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/11/24083308/netflix-cozying-up-to-apple-by-letting-it-have-a-share-of-gaming-revenue-pie-says-m","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109952016","content_text":"Users of some Apple Inc NFLX devices got a taste of Netflix Inc gaming last week — but in a move termed “surprising” by journalist Mark Gurman, the streaming giant has cozied up to the iPhone maker.\nWhat Happened: Gurman said that Netflix is allowing its users to sign up for subscriptions inside of its games through Apple’s in-app purchase system.\n“That gives Apple up to a 30% cut. Even more surprising is that those subscriptions also work in the main Netflix video streaming app,” Gurman wrote in his weekly newsletter.\nGurman said that this is a signal that tensions between Apple and Netflix “seem to be cooling.”\nWhy It Matters:The development surrounding in-app payments is notable, according to Gurman, because Netflix stopped letting its customers subscribe through Apple’s service in 2018.\n“Now it’s providing a new way to sign up that lets Apple take a cut again,” said Gurman.\nNetflix has yet to reinstate in-app purchases through its main app. Gurman said he does not anticipate that happening, terming the games concession a “major change.”\n“I’m curious to see what this is a precursor to. Perhaps Netflix will ask Apple for an exemption to the ban on all-in-one gaming apps, letting the streaming giant provide a more streamlined offering to its customers.”\nLast week, Netflix launched 5 games for iPhone and iPad users through an app available on the App Store marketplace.\nGurman noted last week that the Tim Cook-led company was a roadblock in Netflixachieving success in gaming as it ultimately will have to transition the gaming service to a cloud-based one. Apple has previously prevented similar cloud-based services from listing on the App Store.\nPrice Action:On Friday, Apple shares closed nearly 1.4% higher at $149.99 in the regular session and fell almost 0.2% in the after-hours trading. On the same day, Netflix shares rose 3.81% in the regular session to $682.61 and declined 0.35% in the after-hours trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NFLX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4358,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":873225181,"gmtCreate":1636950761375,"gmtModify":1636950761375,"author":{"id":"3582928782122574","authorId":"3582928782122574","name":"Hoba","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59c2266c2e959396b467872738c290cc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582928782122574","idStr":"3582928782122574"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Huat ah","listText":"Huat ah","text":"Huat ah","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873225181","repostId":"1112145208","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112145208","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1636945957,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1112145208?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-15 11:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Soros Reveals Four New Bets; Raises Stakes in Property and Bank Stocks<blockquote>索罗斯透露四个新赌注；增持房地产和银行股股份</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112145208","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- Soros Fund Management increased its bets on real estate and financial stocks during t","content":"<p>(Bloomberg) -- Soros Fund Management increased its bets on real estate and financial stocks during the last quarter, while the value of its U.S. equity portfolio dipped to less than $5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）——索罗斯基金管理公司在上个季度增加了对房地产和金融股的押注，而其美国股票投资组合的价值降至不到50亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> George Soros’s investment firm disclosed new positions in Hill-Rom Holdings Inc., MGM Growth Properties LLC, JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc., according to a regulatory filing Friday.</p><p><blockquote>根据周五提交的监管文件，乔治·索罗斯的投资公司披露了在Hill-Rom Holdings Inc.、MGM Growth Properties LLC、摩根大通和高盛集团的新头寸。</blockquote></p><p> The New York-based firm increased stakes in IHS Markit Ltd. and homebuilder Dr Horton Inc. It exited positions in electric-vehicle battery startup QuantumScape Corp. and elevator manufacturer Otis Worldwide Corp.</p><p><blockquote>这家总部位于纽约的公司增持了IHS Markit Ltd.和住宅建筑商Dr Horton Inc.的股份。它退出了电动汽车电池初创公司QuantumScape Corp.和电梯制造商Otis Worldwide Corp.的职位。</blockquote></p><p> The billionaire philanthropist’s investment firm held $4.96 billion in U.S. equities at the end of the quarter, down $205.2 million from the prior period, the filing showed.</p><p><blockquote>文件显示，这位亿万富翁慈善家的投资公司截至本季度末持有49.6亿美元的美国股票，比上一季度减少2.052亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Money managers overseeing more than $100 million in U.S. equities have to file a 13F form within 45 days of the end of each quarter to list their holdings in stocks that trade on U.S. exchanges. It’s one of the few places to gain insight into how hedge funds and some large family offices invest in stocks.</p><p><blockquote>监管超过1亿美元美国股票的基金经理必须在每个季度结束后45天内提交13F表格，以列出其持有的在美国交易所交易的股票。这是少数几个可以深入了解对冲基金和一些大型家族办公室如何投资股票的地方之一。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Soros Reveals Four New Bets; Raises Stakes in Property and Bank Stocks<blockquote>索罗斯透露四个新赌注；增持房地产和银行股股份</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSoros Reveals Four New Bets; Raises Stakes in Property and Bank Stocks<blockquote>索罗斯透露四个新赌注；增持房地产和银行股股份</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Bloomberg</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-15 11:12</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Bloomberg) -- Soros Fund Management increased its bets on real estate and financial stocks during the last quarter, while the value of its U.S. equity portfolio dipped to less than $5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）——索罗斯基金管理公司在上个季度增加了对房地产和金融股的押注，而其美国股票投资组合的价值降至不到50亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> George Soros’s investment firm disclosed new positions in Hill-Rom Holdings Inc., MGM Growth Properties LLC, JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc., according to a regulatory filing Friday.</p><p><blockquote>根据周五提交的监管文件，乔治·索罗斯的投资公司披露了在Hill-Rom Holdings Inc.、MGM Growth Properties LLC、摩根大通和高盛集团的新头寸。</blockquote></p><p> The New York-based firm increased stakes in IHS Markit Ltd. and homebuilder Dr Horton Inc. It exited positions in electric-vehicle battery startup QuantumScape Corp. and elevator manufacturer Otis Worldwide Corp.</p><p><blockquote>这家总部位于纽约的公司增持了IHS Markit Ltd.和住宅建筑商Dr Horton Inc.的股份。它退出了电动汽车电池初创公司QuantumScape Corp.和电梯制造商Otis Worldwide Corp.的职位。</blockquote></p><p> The billionaire philanthropist’s investment firm held $4.96 billion in U.S. equities at the end of the quarter, down $205.2 million from the prior period, the filing showed.</p><p><blockquote>文件显示，这位亿万富翁慈善家的投资公司截至本季度末持有49.6亿美元的美国股票，比上一季度减少2.052亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Money managers overseeing more than $100 million in U.S. equities have to file a 13F form within 45 days of the end of each quarter to list their holdings in stocks that trade on U.S. exchanges. It’s one of the few places to gain insight into how hedge funds and some large family offices invest in stocks.</p><p><blockquote>监管超过1亿美元美国股票的基金经理必须在每个季度结束后45天内提交13F表格，以列出其持有的在美国交易所交易的股票。这是少数几个可以深入了解对冲基金和一些大型家族办公室如何投资股票的地方之一。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/soros-reveals-four-bets-raises-012305021.html\">Bloomberg</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DHI":"霍顿房屋","QS":"Quantumscape Corp.","HRC":"希尔罗控股","GS":"高盛","OTIS":"奥的斯","MGM":"美高梅","JPM":"摩根大通"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/soros-reveals-four-bets-raises-012305021.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112145208","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- Soros Fund Management increased its bets on real estate and financial stocks during the last quarter, while the value of its U.S. equity portfolio dipped to less than $5 billion.\nGeorge Soros’s investment firm disclosed new positions in Hill-Rom Holdings Inc., MGM Growth Properties LLC, JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc., according to a regulatory filing Friday.\nThe New York-based firm increased stakes in IHS Markit Ltd. and homebuilder Dr Horton Inc. It exited positions in electric-vehicle battery startup QuantumScape Corp. and elevator manufacturer Otis Worldwide Corp.\nThe billionaire philanthropist’s investment firm held $4.96 billion in U.S. equities at the end of the quarter, down $205.2 million from the prior period, the filing showed.\nMoney managers overseeing more than $100 million in U.S. equities have to file a 13F form within 45 days of the end of each quarter to list their holdings in stocks that trade on U.S. exchanges. It’s one of the few places to gain insight into how hedge funds and some large family offices invest in stocks.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GS":0.9,"OTIS":0.9,"JPM":0.9,"QS":0.9,"DHI":0.9,"HRC":0.9,"MGM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4380,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":860762857,"gmtCreate":1632215433279,"gmtModify":1632802023051,"author":{"id":"3582928782122574","authorId":"3582928782122574","name":"Hoba","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59c2266c2e959396b467872738c290cc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582928782122574","idStr":"3582928782122574"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Huat","listText":"Huat","text":"Huat","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/860762857","repostId":"1169324317","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3240,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":885466600,"gmtCreate":1631816594700,"gmtModify":1631890487135,"author":{"id":"3582928782122574","authorId":"3582928782122574","name":"Hoba","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59c2266c2e959396b467872738c290cc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582928782122574","idStr":"3582928782122574"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Genius","listText":"Genius","text":"Genius","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/885466600","repostId":"2167651799","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3111,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":880876350,"gmtCreate":1631049281770,"gmtModify":1631890487140,"author":{"id":"3582928782122574","authorId":"3582928782122574","name":"Hoba","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59c2266c2e959396b467872738c290cc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582928782122574","idStr":"3582928782122574"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Huat","listText":"Huat","text":"Huat","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880876350","repostId":"1130130857","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130130857","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631007146,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1130130857?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-07 17:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Strategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?<blockquote>策略师表示，今年秋天股市可能会陷入困境。现在买什么？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130130857","media":"Barron's","summary":"What a year this has been for the markets!Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and  a mostly receding pandemic, theS&P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.Tailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnin","content":"<p>What a year this has been for the markets! Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and (until recently) a mostly receding pandemic, theS&amp;P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.</p><p><blockquote>对于市场来说，这是多么美好的一年啊！在货币和财政刺激、经济和盈利增长以及（直到最近）疫情基本消退的推动下，标准普尔500股票指数已上涨20%，连续七个月上涨，并创下50多个高点。除此之外，去年市场从2020年3月的低点反弹了68%。</blockquote></p><p> Tailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnings growth are likely to decelerate through the end of the year. What’s more, theFederal Reserve has all but promised to start tapering its bond buyingin coming months, and the Biden administration has proposed hiking corporate and personal tax rates. None of this is apt to sit well with holders of increasingly pricey shares.</p><p><blockquote>顺风依然存在，但逆风现在迫在眉睫，可能会减缓股市的上涨。刺激支出已经见顶，经济和企业盈利增长可能会在今年年底放缓。此外，美联储几乎承诺在未来几个月开始缩减债券购买规模，拜登政府也提议提高企业和个人税率。这些都不会让股价越来越贵的持有者满意。</blockquote></p><p> In other words,brace for a volatile fallin which conflicting forces buffet stocks, bonds, and investors. “The everything rally is behind us,” says Saira Malik, chief investment officer of global equities at Nuveen. “It’s not going to be a sharply rising economic tide that lifts all boats from here.”</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，要做好迎接波动性下跌的准备，这种冲突迫使巴菲特股票、债券和投资者。Nuveen全球股票首席投资官Saira Malik表示：“一切反弹都已经过去。”“这不会是一场急剧上升的经济浪潮，将所有船只从这里抬起。”</blockquote></p><p> That’s the general consensus among the six market strategists and chief investment officers whom<i>Barron’s</i>recently consulted. All see the S&amp;P 500 ending the year near Thursday’s close of 4536. Their average target: 4585.</p><p><blockquote>这是六位市场策略师和首席投资官的普遍共识<i>巴伦周刊</i>最近咨询过。所有人都认为标普500将在周四收盘价4536点附近结束今年。他们的平均目标是：4585。</blockquote></p><p> Next year’s gains look muted, as well, relative to recent trends. The group expects the S&amp;P 500 to tack on another 6% in 2022, rising to about 4800.</p><p><blockquote>相对于最近的趋势，明年的涨幅看起来也很微弱。该集团预计2022年标普500将再增加6%，升至约4800。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb61c7b74b9b0f18a019afb4ac44ad59\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With stocks trading for about 21 times the coming year’s expected earnings,bonds yielding little, and cash yielding less than nothing after accounting for inflation, investors face tough asset-allocation decisions. In place of the “everything rally,” which lifted fast-growing tech stocks, no-growth meme stocks, and the Dogecoins of the digital world, our market watchers recommend focusing on “quality” investments. In equities, that means shares of businesses with solid balance sheets, expanding profit margins, and ample and recurring free cash flow. Even if the averages do little in coming months, these stocks are likely to shine.</p><p><blockquote>由于股票交易价格约为来年预期收益的21倍，债券收益率很低，考虑通货膨胀后现金收益率低于零，投资者面临着艰难的资产配置决策。我们的市场观察人士建议关注“优质”投资，而不是提振快速增长的科技股、无增长的模因股和数字世界的狗狗币的“一切反弹”。在股票方面，这意味着拥有稳健的资产负债表、不断扩大的利润率以及充足且经常性的自由现金流的企业的股票。即使未来几个月平均指数表现不大，这些股票也可能会大放异彩。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market’s massive rally in the past year was a gift of sorts from the Federal Reserve, which flooded the financial system with money to stave off theeconomic damage wrought by the Covid pandemic. Since March 2020, the U.S. central bank has been buying a combined $120 billion a month of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, while keeping its benchmark federal-funds rate target at 0% to 0.25%. These moves have depressed bond yields and pushed investors into riskier assets, including stocks.</p><p><blockquote>过去一年股市的大幅上涨是美联储的一份礼物，美联储向金融体系注入了大量资金，以避免新冠疫情造成的经济损失。自2020年3月以来，美联储每月购买总计1200亿美元的美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券，同时将基准联邦基金利率目标维持在0%至0.25%。这些举措压低了债券收益率，并推动投资者进入包括股票在内的风险较高的资产。</blockquote></p><p> Fed Chairman Jerome <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">Powell</a> has said that the central bank might begin to wind down, or taper, its emergency asset purchases sometime in the coming quarters, a move that could roil risk assets of all sorts. “For us, it’s very simple: Tapering is tightening,” says Mike Wilson, chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist atMorgan Stanley.“It’s the first step away from maximum accommodation [by the Fed]. They’re being very calculated about it this time, but the bottom line is that it should have a negative effect on equity valuations.”</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">鲍威尔</a>曾表示，央行可能会在未来几个季度的某个时候开始逐步减少或缩减紧急资产购买，此举可能会扰乱各类风险资产。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)首席投资官兼首席美国股票策略师威尔逊(Mike Wilson)表示：“对我们来说，缩减规模很简单：缩减规模就是紧缩。这是（美联储）距离最大限度宽松政策迈出的第一步。他们这次对此非常谨慎，但底线是，这应该会对股票估值产生负面影响。”</blockquote></p><p> The government’s stimulus spending, too, has peaked, the strategists note. Supplemental federal unemployment benefits of $300 a week expire as of Sept. 6. Although Congress seems likely to pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill this fall, the near-term economic impact will pale in comparison to the multiple rounds of stimulus introduced since March 2020.</p><p><blockquote>策略师指出，政府的刺激支出也已见顶。每周300美元的补充联邦失业救济金将于9月6日到期。尽管国会似乎有可能在今年秋天通过一项两党基础设施法案，但与2020年3月以来推出的多轮刺激措施相比，近期的经济影响将相形见绌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2cb76c498c1c4c980139e3d0514c261\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The bill includes about $550 billion in new spending—a fraction of the trillions authorized by previous laws—and it will be spread out over many years. The short-term boost that infrastructure stimulus will give to consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70% of U.S. growth domestic product, won’t come close to what the economy saw after millions of Americans received checks from the government this past year.</p><p><blockquote>该法案包括约5500亿美元的新支出——只是之前法律授权的数万亿美元的一小部分——并且将分散在许多年内。基础设施刺激措施将给消费者支出带来的短期提振，占美国国内生产总值增长的近70%，但不会接近去年数百万美国人收到政府支票后的经济增长。</blockquote></p><p> A budget bill approved by Democrats only should follow the infrastructure bill, and include spending to support Medicare expansion, child-care funding, free community-college tuition, public housing, and climate-related measures, among other party priorities. Congress could vote to lift taxes on corporations and high-earning individuals to offset that spending—another near-term risk to the market.</p><p><blockquote>仅由民主党批准的预算法案应该遵循基础设施法案，并包括支持医疗保险扩张、儿童保育资金、免费社区大学学费、公共住房和气候相关措施以及其他政党优先事项的支出。国会可能会投票提高企业和高收入个人的税收，以抵消这些支出——这是市场面临的另一个近期风险。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6693da658db16059fc99e08a7531675f\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Other politically charged issues likewise could derail equities this fall. Congress needs to pass a debt-ceiling increase to fund the government, and a stop-gap spending bill later this month to avoid a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">Washington</a> shutdown in October.</p><p><blockquote>今年秋天，其他带有政治色彩的问题同样可能会让股市脱轨。国会需要通过提高债务上限来为政府提供资金，并在本月晚些时候通过一项权宜之计的支出法案来避免<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">华盛顿州</a>10月停工。</blockquote></p><p> For now, our market experts are relatively sanguine about the economic impact of the Delta variant of Covid-19. As long as vaccines remain effective in minimizing severe infections that lead to hospitalizations and deaths, the negative effects of the current Covid wave will be limited largely to the travel industry and movie theaters, they say. Wall Street’s base case for the market doesn’t include a renewed wave of lockdowns that would undermine economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>目前，我们的市场专家对Covid-19德尔塔变异毒株的经济影响相对乐观。他们说，只要疫苗在最大限度地减少导致住院和死亡的严重感染方面仍然有效，当前Covid浪潮的负面影响将主要限于旅游业和电影院。华尔街对市场的基本假设不包括会破坏经济增长的新一波封锁。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation has been a hot topic at the Fed and among investors, partly because it has been running so hot of late. The U.S. consumer price index rose at an annualized 5.4% in both June and July—a spike the Fed calls transitory, although others aren’t so sure. The strategists are taking Powell’s side of the argument; they expect inflation to fall significantly next year. Their forecasts fall between 2.5% and 3.5%, which they consider manageable for consumers and companies, and an acceptable side effect of rapid economic growth. An inflation rate above 2.5%, however, combined with Fed tapering, would mean that now ultralow bond yields should rise.</p><p><blockquote>通胀一直是美联储和投资者的热门话题，部分原因是通胀最近非常火爆。6月和7月，美国消费者价格指数年化涨幅为5.4%，这是美联储评级暂时性的飙升，尽管其他人不太确定。策略师们站在鲍威尔一边。他们预计明年通胀将大幅下降。他们的预测在2.5%至3.5%之间，他们认为这对消费者和公司来说是可控的，也是经济快速增长的可接受的副作用。然而，通胀率高于2.5%，加上美联储缩减规模，意味着目前超低的债券收益率应该会上升。</blockquote></p><p> “We think inflation will continue to run hotter than it has since the financial crisis, but it’s hard for us to see inflation much over 2.5% once many of the reopening-related pressures start to dissipate,” says Michael Fredericks, head of income investing for theBlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group. “So bond yields do need to move up, but that will happen gradually.”</p><p><blockquote>收益投资主管迈克尔·弗雷德里克斯(Michael Fredericks)表示：“我们认为通胀将继续比金融危机以来更高，但一旦许多与重新开放相关的压力开始消散，我们很难看到通胀率远高于2.5%。”贝莱德多资产策略集团。“因此债券收益率确实需要上升，但这将逐渐发生。”</blockquote></p><p> The strategists see the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbing to around 1.65% by year end. That’s about 35 basis points—or hundredths of a percentage point—above current levels, but below the 1.75% that the yield reached at its March 2021 highs. By next year, the 10-year Treasury could yield 2%, the group says. Those aren’t big moves in absolute terms, but they’re meaningful for&nbsp;the bond market—and could be even more so for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>策略师预计，到年底，10年期美国国债收益率将攀升至1.65%左右。这比当前水平高出约35个基点（即百分之几个百分点），但低于2021年3月收益率高点时达到的1.75%。该组织表示，到明年，10年期国债收益率可能达到2%。从绝对值来看，这些举措并不是很大，但对债券市场来说意义重大，对股票来说可能更是如此。</blockquote></p><p> Rising yields tend to weigh on stock valuations for two reasons. Higher-yielding bonds offer competition to stocks, and companies’ future earnings are worthless in the present when discounting them at a higher rate. Still, a 10-year yield around 2% won’t be enough to knock stock valuations down to pre-Covid levels. Even if yields climb, market strategists see the price/earnings multiple of the S&amp;P 500 holding well above its 30-year average of 16 times forward earnings. The index’s forward P/E topped 23 last fall.</p><p><blockquote>收益率上升往往会打压股票估值，原因有二。高收益债券提供了与股票的竞争，当以更高的利率贴现时，公司的未来收益在目前毫无价值。尽管如此，2%左右的10年期国债收益率仍不足以将股票估值降至新冠疫情爆发前的水平。即使收益率攀升，市场策略师认为标普500的市盈率仍远高于预期市盈率16倍的30年平均水平。去年秋天，该指数的远期市盈率突破23。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e08d24cb421d7cc13debd76a9c6fea01\" tg-width=\"660\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As long as 10-year Treasury yields stay in the 2% range, the S&amp;P 500 should be able to command a forward P/E in the high teens, strategists say. A return to the 16-times long-term average isn’t in the cards until there is more pressure from much higher yields—or something else that causes stocks to fall.</p><p><blockquote>策略师表示，只要10年期国债收益率保持在2%的范围内，标普500的远期市盈率就应该能够在十几岁左右。除非收益率高得多或其他导致股市下跌的因素带来更大压力，否则不可能回到16倍的长期平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> If yields surge past 2% or 2.25%, investors could start to question equity valuations more seriously, says&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">State</a> Street’schief portfolio strategist, Gaurav Mallik: “We haven’t seen [the 10-year yield] above 2% for some time now, so that’s an important sentiment level for investors.”</p><p><blockquote>表示，如果收益率飙升超过2%或2.25%，投资者可能会开始更严重地质疑股票估值<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">国家</a>Street首席投资组合策略师Gaurav Mallik：“我们已经有一段时间没有看到（10年期国债收益率）超过2%了，因此这对投资者来说是一个重要的情绪水平。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93ff6490069ab5dc1b4057f1ff7966f3\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Wilson is more concerned, noting that the stock market’s valuation risk is asymmetric: “It’s very unlikely that multiples are going to go up, and there’s a good chance that they go down more than 10% given the deceleration in growth and where we are in the cycle,” he says</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊更担心，他指出，股市的估值风险是不对称的：“市盈率不太可能上升，考虑到增长放缓和我们所处的位置，市盈率很有可能下降10%以上。在周期中，”他说</blockquote></p><p> If 16 to 23 times forward earnings is the range, he adds, “you’re already at the very high end of that. There’s more potential risk than reward.”</p><p><blockquote>他补充道，如果预期市盈率为16至23倍，“你已经处于这个范围的很高端。潜在风险大于回报。”</blockquote></p><p> Some P/E-multiple compression is baked into all six strategists’ forecasts, heaping greater importance on the path of profit growth. On average, the strategists expect S&amp;P 500 earnings to jump 46% this year, to about $204, after last year’s earnings depression. That could be followed by a more normalized gain of 9% in 2022, to about $222.50.</p><p><blockquote>所有六位策略师的预测都包含了一些市盈率倍数的压缩，这对利润增长的路径变得更加重要。平均而言，策略师预计，继去年的盈利低迷之后，标普500今年的盈利将增长46%，至204美元左右。随后，2022年可能会上涨9%，达到约222.50美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> A potential headwind would be a higher federal corporate-tax rate in 2022. The details of Democrats’ spending and taxation plans will be worked out in the coming weeks, and investors can expect to hear a lot more about potential tax increases. Several strategists see a 25% federal rate on corporate profits as a likely compromise figure, above the 21% in place since 2018, but below the 28% sought by the Biden administration.</p><p><blockquote>一个潜在的阻力是2022年联邦企业税率上升。民主党支出和税收计划的细节将在未来几周内制定出来，投资者可以期待听到更多有关潜在增税的消息。几位策略师认为，25%的联邦企业利润税率可能是一个妥协数字，高于2018年以来实施的21%，但低于拜登政府寻求的28%。</blockquote></p><p> An increase of that magnitude would shave about 5% off S&amp;P 500 earnings next year. The index could drop by a similar amount as the passage of the Democrats’ reconciliation bill nears this fall, but the impact should be limited to that initial correction. As with the tax cuts in December 2017, the change should be a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-time event for the market, some strategists predict.</p><p><blockquote>如此幅度的增长将使标普500明年的盈利减少约5%。随着今年秋天民主党和解法案的通过，该指数可能会下跌类似的幅度，但影响应该仅限于最初的调整。与2017年12月的减税一样，这一变化应该是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>——一些策略师预测，市场的时间事件。</blockquote></p><p> These concerns aside, investors shouldn’t miss the bigger picture: The U.S. economy is in good shape and growing robustly. The strategists expect gross domestic product to rise 6.3% this year and about 4% in 2022. “The cyclical uplift and above-trend growth will continue at least through 2022, and we want to be biased toward assets that have that exposure,” says Mallik.</p><p><blockquote>抛开这些担忧不谈，投资者不应错过更大的图景：美国经济状况良好，增长强劲。策略师预计今年国内生产总值将增长6.3%，2022年将增长约4%。Mallik表示：“周期性上涨和高于趋势的增长将至少持续到2022年，我们希望偏向于具有这种风险的资产。”</blockquote></p><p>   “We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next. When GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”— Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets  The State Street strategist recommends overweighting materials, financials, and technology in investment portfolios. That approach includes both economically sensitive companies, such as banks and miners, and steady growers in the tech sector.</p><p><blockquote>“今明两年我们的经济将会火爆。当GDP增长高于平均水平时，价值会战胜增长，周期性会战胜防御性。”—Lori Calvasina，加拿大皇家银行资本市场道富策略师建议在投资组合中增持材料、金融和科技股。这种方法既包括银行和矿业公司等对经济敏感的公司，也包括科技行业的稳定增长者。</blockquote></p><p> RBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, likewise takes a barbell approach, with both cyclical and growth exposure. Her preferred sectors are energy, financials, and technology.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)美国股票策略主管洛里·卡尔瓦西纳(Lori Calvasina)同样采取杠铃法，同时投资周期性和成长性。她最喜欢的行业是能源、金融和技术。</blockquote></p><p> “Valuations are still a lot more attractive in financials and energy than growth [sectors such as technology or consumer discretionary,]” Calvasina says. “The catalyst in the near term is getting out of the current Covid wave... We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next, and traditionally when GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳表示：“金融和能源行业的估值仍然比增长行业（科技或非必需消费品等行业）更具吸引力。”“近期的催化剂是摆脱当前的新冠疫情浪潮……今年和明年我们将迎来经济火爆，传统上，当GDP增长高于平均水平时，价值会跑赢增长，周期性会跑赢防御性。”</blockquote></p><p> But the focus on quality will be pivotal, especially moving into the second half of 2022. That’s when the Fed is likely to hike interest rates for the first time in this cycle. By 2023, the economy could return to pre-Covid growth on the order of 2%.</p><p><blockquote>但对质量的关注将是关键，尤其是进入2022年下半年。届时美联储可能会在本周期内首次加息。到2023年，经济可能会恢复到新冠疫情前2%左右的增长。</blockquote></p><p> “The historical playbook is that coming out of a recession, you tend to see low-quality outperformance that lasts about a year, then leadership flips back to high quality,” Calvasina says. “But that transition from low quality back to high quality tends to be very bumpy.”</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳表示：“历史上的剧本是，走出衰退后，你往往会看到持续一年左右的低质量优异表现，然后领导力又会恢复到高质量。”“但从低质量回到高质量的转变往往非常坎坷。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Shopping List for Fall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>秋季购物清单</b></blockquote></p><p> Most strategists favor a combination of economically sensitive stocks and steady growers, including tech shares. Financials should do well, particularly if bond yields rise.</p><p><blockquote>大多数策略师青睐对经济敏感的股票和稳定增长的股票（包括科技股）的组合。金融股应该会表现良好，特别是如果债券收益率上升的话。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a54c4bd114c1a5f7f700d1fc14d30d8e\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Although stocks with quality attributes have outperformed the market this summer, according to a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a> analysis, the quality factor has lagged since positive vaccine news was first reported last November.</p><p><blockquote>尽管今年夏天具有质量属性的股票表现优于大盘，但根据一家<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">贝莱德</a>分析，自去年11月首次报道疫苗正面消息以来，质量因素一直滞后。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re moving into a mid-cycle environment, when underlying economic growth remains strong but momentum begins to decelerate,” BlackRock’s Fredericks says. “Our research shows that quality stocks perform particularly well in such a period.”</p><p><blockquote>贝莱德的弗雷德里克斯表示：“我们正在进入周期中期环境，基本经济增长仍然强劲，但势头开始减速。”“我们的研究表明，优质股票在这样的时期表现尤其出色。”</blockquote></p><p> He recommends overweighting profitable technology companies; financials, including banks, and consumer staples and industrials with those quality characteristics.</p><p><blockquote>他建议增持盈利的科技公司；金融，包括银行，以及具有这些质量特征的消费品和工业。</blockquote></p><p> For <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>’s head of equity strategy, Christopher Harvey, a mix of post-pandemic beneficiaries and defensive exposure is the way to go. He constructed a basket of stocks with lower-than-average volatility—which should outperform during periods of market uncertainty or stress this fall—and high “Covid beta,” or sensitivity to good or bad news about the pandemic. One requirement; The stocks had to be rated the equivalent of Buy by Wells Fargo’s equity analysts.</p><p><blockquote>为了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>股票策略主管克里斯托弗·哈维(Christopher Harvey)表示，大流行后受益者和防御性敞口的结合才是正确的选择。他构建了一篮子波动性低于平均水平的股票——在今年秋季市场不确定性或压力时期，这些股票应该会跑赢大盘——并且“新冠贝塔值”较高，即对有关大流行的好消息或坏消息的敏感性。一个要求；富国银行的股票分析师必须将这些股票评级为“买入”。</blockquote></p><p> “There’s near-term economic uncertainty, interest-rate uncertainty, and Covid risk, and generally we’re in a seasonally weaker part of the year around September,” says Harvey. “If we can balance low vol and high Covid beta, we can mitigate a lot of the upcoming uncertainty and volatility around timing of several of those catalysts. Longer-term, though, we still want to have that [reopening exposure.]”</p><p><blockquote>哈维表示：“近期经济存在不确定性、利率不确定性和新冠病毒风险，一般来说，我们正处于9月份左右的季节性疲软时期。”“如果我们能够平衡低波动性和高新贝塔值，我们就可以减轻其中几种催化剂时机即将到来的不确定性和波动性。不过，从长远来看，我们仍然希望[重新开放风险。]”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Harvey’s list of low-volatility stocks with high Covid beta includesApple(AAPL),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>(BAC),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">Northern</a> Trust(NTRS),Lowe’s(LOW),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a> Holdings(IQV), andMasco(MAS).</p><p><blockquote>哈维列出的具有高新贝塔值的低波动性股票名单包括苹果(AAPL)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>（BAC），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">北方的</a>信托(NTRS)、劳氏(LOW)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a>控股公司（IQV）和马斯科公司（MAS）。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, banks are the most frequently recommended group for the months ahead. TheInvesco KBW Bankexchange-traded fund (KBWB) provides broad exposure to the sector in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，银行是未来几个月最常被推荐的群体。Invesco KBW银行交易所交易基金(KBWB)提供对美国该行业的广泛投资。</blockquote></p><p> “We like the valuations [and] credit quality; they are now allowed to buy back shares and increase dividends, and there’s higher Covid beta,” says Harvey.</p><p><blockquote>“我们喜欢估值和信用质量；他们现在被允许回购股票并增加股息，而且新冠贝塔值更高，”哈维说。</blockquote></p><p> Cheaper valuations mean less potential downside in a market correction. And, contrary to much of the rest of the stock market, higher interest rates would be a tailwind for the banks, which could then charge more for loans.</p><p><blockquote>较低的估值意味着市场调整中潜在的下行空间较小。而且，与股市的其他大部分地区相反，更高的利率将成为银行的顺风车，银行可能会收取更高的贷款费用。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">Healthcare</a> stocks also have some fans. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">Healthcare</a> has both defensive and growth attributes to it,” Wilson says. “You’re paying a lot less per unit of growth in healthcare today than you are in other sectors. So we think it provides good balance in this market when we’re worried about valuation.” Health insurerHumana(HUM) makes Wilson’s “Fresh Money Buy List” of stocks Buy-rated by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a> analysts and fitting his macro views.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">医疗保健</a>股票也有一些粉丝。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">医疗保健</a>具有防御性和成长性，”威尔逊说。“如今，医疗保健行业每单位增长支付的费用比其他行业低得多。因此，我们认为，当我们担心估值时，它为这个市场提供了良好的平衡。”健康保险公司Humana(HUM)跻身威尔逊“新鲜资金买入名单”股票买入评级<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师并符合他的宏观观点。</blockquote></p><p> Nuveen’s Malik is also looking toward health care for relatively underpriced growth exposure, namely in the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology groups. She points toSeagen(SGEN), which is focused on oncology drugs and could be an attractive acquisition target for a pharma giant.</p><p><blockquote>Nuveen的Malik还将目光投向医疗保健领域，以获得相对低估的增长机会，即制药和生物技术领域。她指出了Seagen(SGEN)，该公司专注于肿瘤药物，可能成为制药巨头有吸引力的收购目标。</blockquote></p><p> Malik also likesAbbVie(ABBV) which trades at an undemanding eight times forward earnings and sports a 4.7% dividend yield. The coming expiration of patents on its blockbuster anti-inflammatory drug Humira has kept some investors away, but Malik is confident that management can limit the damage and sees promising drugs in development at the $200 billion company.</p><p><blockquote>马利克还喜欢艾伯维(ABBV)，该公司的预期市盈率为8倍，股息收益率为4.7%。其重磅抗炎药修美乐(Humira)的专利即将到期，这让一些投资者望而却步，但马利克相信管理层能够限制损失，并看到这家价值2000亿美元的公司正在开发有前途的药物。</blockquote></p><p> Both stocks have had a tough time in recent days. Seagen fell more than 8% last week, to around $152, on news that its co-founder and CEO sold a large number of shares recently. AndAbbVietanked 7% Wednesday, to $112.27, after the Food and Drug Administration required new warning labels for JAK inhibitors, a type of anti-rheumatoid drug that includes one of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">AbbVie</a>’s most promising post-Humira products.</p><p><blockquote>这两只股票最近几天都过得很艰难。Seagen上周跌超8%，报152美元左右，因有消息称其联合创始人兼首席执行官近期大量抛售股票。在美国食品和药物管理局要求为JAK抑制剂贴上新的警告标签后，ABBVIE周三上涨7%，至112.27美元。JAK抑制剂是一种抗类风湿药物，其中包括一种<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">艾伯维</a>最有前途的后修美乐产品。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>(PFE),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>(AXP),Johnson &amp; Johnson(JNJ), andCisco Systems(CSCO) are other S&amp;P 500 members that pass a<i>Barron’s</i>screen for quality attributes.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a>（PFE），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">美国运通</a>(AXP)、强生(JNJ)和思科系统(CSCO)是其他通过A的标普500成员<i>巴伦周刊</i>筛选质量属性。</blockquote></p><p> After a year of steady gains, investors might be reminded this fall that stocks can also decline, as growth momentum and policy support begin to fade. But underlying economic strength supports buying the dip, should the market drop from its highs. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> be more selective. And go with quality.</p><p><blockquote>经过一年的稳定上涨后，今年秋天投资者可能会被提醒，随着增长势头和政策支持开始消退，股市也可能下跌。但如果市场从高点下跌，潜在的经济实力支持逢低买入。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>更有选择性。追求质量。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Strategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?<blockquote>策略师表示，今年秋天股市可能会陷入困境。现在买什么？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStrategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?<blockquote>策略师表示，今年秋天股市可能会陷入困境。现在买什么？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-07 17:32</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>What a year this has been for the markets! Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and (until recently) a mostly receding pandemic, theS&amp;P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.</p><p><blockquote>对于市场来说，这是多么美好的一年啊！在货币和财政刺激、经济和盈利增长以及（直到最近）疫情基本消退的推动下，标准普尔500股票指数已上涨20%，连续七个月上涨，并创下50多个高点。除此之外，去年市场从2020年3月的低点反弹了68%。</blockquote></p><p> Tailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnings growth are likely to decelerate through the end of the year. What’s more, theFederal Reserve has all but promised to start tapering its bond buyingin coming months, and the Biden administration has proposed hiking corporate and personal tax rates. None of this is apt to sit well with holders of increasingly pricey shares.</p><p><blockquote>顺风依然存在，但逆风现在迫在眉睫，可能会减缓股市的上涨。刺激支出已经见顶，经济和企业盈利增长可能会在今年年底放缓。此外，美联储几乎承诺在未来几个月开始缩减债券购买规模，拜登政府也提议提高企业和个人税率。这些都不会让股价越来越贵的持有者满意。</blockquote></p><p> In other words,brace for a volatile fallin which conflicting forces buffet stocks, bonds, and investors. “The everything rally is behind us,” says Saira Malik, chief investment officer of global equities at Nuveen. “It’s not going to be a sharply rising economic tide that lifts all boats from here.”</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，要做好迎接波动性下跌的准备，这种冲突迫使巴菲特股票、债券和投资者。Nuveen全球股票首席投资官Saira Malik表示：“一切反弹都已经过去。”“这不会是一场急剧上升的经济浪潮，将所有船只从这里抬起。”</blockquote></p><p> That’s the general consensus among the six market strategists and chief investment officers whom<i>Barron’s</i>recently consulted. All see the S&amp;P 500 ending the year near Thursday’s close of 4536. Their average target: 4585.</p><p><blockquote>这是六位市场策略师和首席投资官的普遍共识<i>巴伦周刊</i>最近咨询过。所有人都认为标普500将在周四收盘价4536点附近结束今年。他们的平均目标是：4585。</blockquote></p><p> Next year’s gains look muted, as well, relative to recent trends. The group expects the S&amp;P 500 to tack on another 6% in 2022, rising to about 4800.</p><p><blockquote>相对于最近的趋势，明年的涨幅看起来也很微弱。该集团预计2022年标普500将再增加6%，升至约4800。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb61c7b74b9b0f18a019afb4ac44ad59\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With stocks trading for about 21 times the coming year’s expected earnings,bonds yielding little, and cash yielding less than nothing after accounting for inflation, investors face tough asset-allocation decisions. In place of the “everything rally,” which lifted fast-growing tech stocks, no-growth meme stocks, and the Dogecoins of the digital world, our market watchers recommend focusing on “quality” investments. In equities, that means shares of businesses with solid balance sheets, expanding profit margins, and ample and recurring free cash flow. Even if the averages do little in coming months, these stocks are likely to shine.</p><p><blockquote>由于股票交易价格约为来年预期收益的21倍，债券收益率很低，考虑通货膨胀后现金收益率低于零，投资者面临着艰难的资产配置决策。我们的市场观察人士建议关注“优质”投资，而不是提振快速增长的科技股、无增长的模因股和数字世界的狗狗币的“一切反弹”。在股票方面，这意味着拥有稳健的资产负债表、不断扩大的利润率以及充足且经常性的自由现金流的企业的股票。即使未来几个月平均指数表现不大，这些股票也可能会大放异彩。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market’s massive rally in the past year was a gift of sorts from the Federal Reserve, which flooded the financial system with money to stave off theeconomic damage wrought by the Covid pandemic. Since March 2020, the U.S. central bank has been buying a combined $120 billion a month of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, while keeping its benchmark federal-funds rate target at 0% to 0.25%. These moves have depressed bond yields and pushed investors into riskier assets, including stocks.</p><p><blockquote>过去一年股市的大幅上涨是美联储的一份礼物，美联储向金融体系注入了大量资金，以避免新冠疫情造成的经济损失。自2020年3月以来，美联储每月购买总计1200亿美元的美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券，同时将基准联邦基金利率目标维持在0%至0.25%。这些举措压低了债券收益率，并推动投资者进入包括股票在内的风险较高的资产。</blockquote></p><p> Fed Chairman Jerome <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">Powell</a> has said that the central bank might begin to wind down, or taper, its emergency asset purchases sometime in the coming quarters, a move that could roil risk assets of all sorts. “For us, it’s very simple: Tapering is tightening,” says Mike Wilson, chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist atMorgan Stanley.“It’s the first step away from maximum accommodation [by the Fed]. They’re being very calculated about it this time, but the bottom line is that it should have a negative effect on equity valuations.”</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">鲍威尔</a>曾表示，央行可能会在未来几个季度的某个时候开始逐步减少或缩减紧急资产购买，此举可能会扰乱各类风险资产。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)首席投资官兼首席美国股票策略师威尔逊(Mike Wilson)表示：“对我们来说，缩减规模很简单：缩减规模就是紧缩。这是（美联储）距离最大限度宽松政策迈出的第一步。他们这次对此非常谨慎，但底线是，这应该会对股票估值产生负面影响。”</blockquote></p><p> The government’s stimulus spending, too, has peaked, the strategists note. Supplemental federal unemployment benefits of $300 a week expire as of Sept. 6. Although Congress seems likely to pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill this fall, the near-term economic impact will pale in comparison to the multiple rounds of stimulus introduced since March 2020.</p><p><blockquote>策略师指出，政府的刺激支出也已见顶。每周300美元的补充联邦失业救济金将于9月6日到期。尽管国会似乎有可能在今年秋天通过一项两党基础设施法案，但与2020年3月以来推出的多轮刺激措施相比，近期的经济影响将相形见绌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2cb76c498c1c4c980139e3d0514c261\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The bill includes about $550 billion in new spending—a fraction of the trillions authorized by previous laws—and it will be spread out over many years. The short-term boost that infrastructure stimulus will give to consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70% of U.S. growth domestic product, won’t come close to what the economy saw after millions of Americans received checks from the government this past year.</p><p><blockquote>该法案包括约5500亿美元的新支出——只是之前法律授权的数万亿美元的一小部分——并且将分散在许多年内。基础设施刺激措施将给消费者支出带来的短期提振，占美国国内生产总值增长的近70%，但不会接近去年数百万美国人收到政府支票后的经济增长。</blockquote></p><p> A budget bill approved by Democrats only should follow the infrastructure bill, and include spending to support Medicare expansion, child-care funding, free community-college tuition, public housing, and climate-related measures, among other party priorities. Congress could vote to lift taxes on corporations and high-earning individuals to offset that spending—another near-term risk to the market.</p><p><blockquote>仅由民主党批准的预算法案应该遵循基础设施法案，并包括支持医疗保险扩张、儿童保育资金、免费社区大学学费、公共住房和气候相关措施以及其他政党优先事项的支出。国会可能会投票提高企业和高收入个人的税收，以抵消这些支出——这是市场面临的另一个近期风险。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6693da658db16059fc99e08a7531675f\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Other politically charged issues likewise could derail equities this fall. Congress needs to pass a debt-ceiling increase to fund the government, and a stop-gap spending bill later this month to avoid a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">Washington</a> shutdown in October.</p><p><blockquote>今年秋天，其他带有政治色彩的问题同样可能会让股市脱轨。国会需要通过提高债务上限来为政府提供资金，并在本月晚些时候通过一项权宜之计的支出法案来避免<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">华盛顿州</a>10月停工。</blockquote></p><p> For now, our market experts are relatively sanguine about the economic impact of the Delta variant of Covid-19. As long as vaccines remain effective in minimizing severe infections that lead to hospitalizations and deaths, the negative effects of the current Covid wave will be limited largely to the travel industry and movie theaters, they say. Wall Street’s base case for the market doesn’t include a renewed wave of lockdowns that would undermine economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>目前，我们的市场专家对Covid-19德尔塔变异毒株的经济影响相对乐观。他们说，只要疫苗在最大限度地减少导致住院和死亡的严重感染方面仍然有效，当前Covid浪潮的负面影响将主要限于旅游业和电影院。华尔街对市场的基本假设不包括会破坏经济增长的新一波封锁。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation has been a hot topic at the Fed and among investors, partly because it has been running so hot of late. The U.S. consumer price index rose at an annualized 5.4% in both June and July—a spike the Fed calls transitory, although others aren’t so sure. The strategists are taking Powell’s side of the argument; they expect inflation to fall significantly next year. Their forecasts fall between 2.5% and 3.5%, which they consider manageable for consumers and companies, and an acceptable side effect of rapid economic growth. An inflation rate above 2.5%, however, combined with Fed tapering, would mean that now ultralow bond yields should rise.</p><p><blockquote>通胀一直是美联储和投资者的热门话题，部分原因是通胀最近非常火爆。6月和7月，美国消费者价格指数年化涨幅为5.4%，这是美联储评级暂时性的飙升，尽管其他人不太确定。策略师们站在鲍威尔一边。他们预计明年通胀将大幅下降。他们的预测在2.5%至3.5%之间，他们认为这对消费者和公司来说是可控的，也是经济快速增长的可接受的副作用。然而，通胀率高于2.5%，加上美联储缩减规模，意味着目前超低的债券收益率应该会上升。</blockquote></p><p> “We think inflation will continue to run hotter than it has since the financial crisis, but it’s hard for us to see inflation much over 2.5% once many of the reopening-related pressures start to dissipate,” says Michael Fredericks, head of income investing for theBlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group. “So bond yields do need to move up, but that will happen gradually.”</p><p><blockquote>收益投资主管迈克尔·弗雷德里克斯(Michael Fredericks)表示：“我们认为通胀将继续比金融危机以来更高，但一旦许多与重新开放相关的压力开始消散，我们很难看到通胀率远高于2.5%。”贝莱德多资产策略集团。“因此债券收益率确实需要上升，但这将逐渐发生。”</blockquote></p><p> The strategists see the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbing to around 1.65% by year end. That’s about 35 basis points—or hundredths of a percentage point—above current levels, but below the 1.75% that the yield reached at its March 2021 highs. By next year, the 10-year Treasury could yield 2%, the group says. Those aren’t big moves in absolute terms, but they’re meaningful for&nbsp;the bond market—and could be even more so for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>策略师预计，到年底，10年期美国国债收益率将攀升至1.65%左右。这比当前水平高出约35个基点（即百分之几个百分点），但低于2021年3月收益率高点时达到的1.75%。该组织表示，到明年，10年期国债收益率可能达到2%。从绝对值来看，这些举措并不是很大，但对债券市场来说意义重大，对股票来说可能更是如此。</blockquote></p><p> Rising yields tend to weigh on stock valuations for two reasons. Higher-yielding bonds offer competition to stocks, and companies’ future earnings are worthless in the present when discounting them at a higher rate. Still, a 10-year yield around 2% won’t be enough to knock stock valuations down to pre-Covid levels. Even if yields climb, market strategists see the price/earnings multiple of the S&amp;P 500 holding well above its 30-year average of 16 times forward earnings. The index’s forward P/E topped 23 last fall.</p><p><blockquote>收益率上升往往会打压股票估值，原因有二。高收益债券提供了与股票的竞争，当以更高的利率贴现时，公司的未来收益在目前毫无价值。尽管如此，2%左右的10年期国债收益率仍不足以将股票估值降至新冠疫情爆发前的水平。即使收益率攀升，市场策略师认为标普500的市盈率仍远高于预期市盈率16倍的30年平均水平。去年秋天，该指数的远期市盈率突破23。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e08d24cb421d7cc13debd76a9c6fea01\" tg-width=\"660\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As long as 10-year Treasury yields stay in the 2% range, the S&amp;P 500 should be able to command a forward P/E in the high teens, strategists say. A return to the 16-times long-term average isn’t in the cards until there is more pressure from much higher yields—or something else that causes stocks to fall.</p><p><blockquote>策略师表示，只要10年期国债收益率保持在2%的范围内，标普500的远期市盈率就应该能够在十几岁左右。除非收益率高得多或其他导致股市下跌的因素带来更大压力，否则不可能回到16倍的长期平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> If yields surge past 2% or 2.25%, investors could start to question equity valuations more seriously, says&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">State</a> Street’schief portfolio strategist, Gaurav Mallik: “We haven’t seen [the 10-year yield] above 2% for some time now, so that’s an important sentiment level for investors.”</p><p><blockquote>表示，如果收益率飙升超过2%或2.25%，投资者可能会开始更严重地质疑股票估值<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">国家</a>Street首席投资组合策略师Gaurav Mallik：“我们已经有一段时间没有看到（10年期国债收益率）超过2%了，因此这对投资者来说是一个重要的情绪水平。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93ff6490069ab5dc1b4057f1ff7966f3\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Wilson is more concerned, noting that the stock market’s valuation risk is asymmetric: “It’s very unlikely that multiples are going to go up, and there’s a good chance that they go down more than 10% given the deceleration in growth and where we are in the cycle,” he says</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊更担心，他指出，股市的估值风险是不对称的：“市盈率不太可能上升，考虑到增长放缓和我们所处的位置，市盈率很有可能下降10%以上。在周期中，”他说</blockquote></p><p> If 16 to 23 times forward earnings is the range, he adds, “you’re already at the very high end of that. There’s more potential risk than reward.”</p><p><blockquote>他补充道，如果预期市盈率为16至23倍，“你已经处于这个范围的很高端。潜在风险大于回报。”</blockquote></p><p> Some P/E-multiple compression is baked into all six strategists’ forecasts, heaping greater importance on the path of profit growth. On average, the strategists expect S&amp;P 500 earnings to jump 46% this year, to about $204, after last year’s earnings depression. That could be followed by a more normalized gain of 9% in 2022, to about $222.50.</p><p><blockquote>所有六位策略师的预测都包含了一些市盈率倍数的压缩，这对利润增长的路径变得更加重要。平均而言，策略师预计，继去年的盈利低迷之后，标普500今年的盈利将增长46%，至204美元左右。随后，2022年可能会上涨9%，达到约222.50美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> A potential headwind would be a higher federal corporate-tax rate in 2022. The details of Democrats’ spending and taxation plans will be worked out in the coming weeks, and investors can expect to hear a lot more about potential tax increases. Several strategists see a 25% federal rate on corporate profits as a likely compromise figure, above the 21% in place since 2018, but below the 28% sought by the Biden administration.</p><p><blockquote>一个潜在的阻力是2022年联邦企业税率上升。民主党支出和税收计划的细节将在未来几周内制定出来，投资者可以期待听到更多有关潜在增税的消息。几位策略师认为，25%的联邦企业利润税率可能是一个妥协数字，高于2018年以来实施的21%，但低于拜登政府寻求的28%。</blockquote></p><p> An increase of that magnitude would shave about 5% off S&amp;P 500 earnings next year. The index could drop by a similar amount as the passage of the Democrats’ reconciliation bill nears this fall, but the impact should be limited to that initial correction. As with the tax cuts in December 2017, the change should be a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-time event for the market, some strategists predict.</p><p><blockquote>如此幅度的增长将使标普500明年的盈利减少约5%。随着今年秋天民主党和解法案的通过，该指数可能会下跌类似的幅度，但影响应该仅限于最初的调整。与2017年12月的减税一样，这一变化应该是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>——一些策略师预测，市场的时间事件。</blockquote></p><p> These concerns aside, investors shouldn’t miss the bigger picture: The U.S. economy is in good shape and growing robustly. The strategists expect gross domestic product to rise 6.3% this year and about 4% in 2022. “The cyclical uplift and above-trend growth will continue at least through 2022, and we want to be biased toward assets that have that exposure,” says Mallik.</p><p><blockquote>抛开这些担忧不谈，投资者不应错过更大的图景：美国经济状况良好，增长强劲。策略师预计今年国内生产总值将增长6.3%，2022年将增长约4%。Mallik表示：“周期性上涨和高于趋势的增长将至少持续到2022年，我们希望偏向于具有这种风险的资产。”</blockquote></p><p>   “We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next. When GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”— Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets  The State Street strategist recommends overweighting materials, financials, and technology in investment portfolios. That approach includes both economically sensitive companies, such as banks and miners, and steady growers in the tech sector.</p><p><blockquote>“今明两年我们的经济将会火爆。当GDP增长高于平均水平时，价值会战胜增长，周期性会战胜防御性。”—Lori Calvasina，加拿大皇家银行资本市场道富策略师建议在投资组合中增持材料、金融和科技股。这种方法既包括银行和矿业公司等对经济敏感的公司，也包括科技行业的稳定增长者。</blockquote></p><p> RBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, likewise takes a barbell approach, with both cyclical and growth exposure. Her preferred sectors are energy, financials, and technology.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)美国股票策略主管洛里·卡尔瓦西纳(Lori Calvasina)同样采取杠铃法，同时投资周期性和成长性。她最喜欢的行业是能源、金融和技术。</blockquote></p><p> “Valuations are still a lot more attractive in financials and energy than growth [sectors such as technology or consumer discretionary,]” Calvasina says. “The catalyst in the near term is getting out of the current Covid wave... We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next, and traditionally when GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳表示：“金融和能源行业的估值仍然比增长行业（科技或非必需消费品等行业）更具吸引力。”“近期的催化剂是摆脱当前的新冠疫情浪潮……今年和明年我们将迎来经济火爆，传统上，当GDP增长高于平均水平时，价值会跑赢增长，周期性会跑赢防御性。”</blockquote></p><p> But the focus on quality will be pivotal, especially moving into the second half of 2022. That’s when the Fed is likely to hike interest rates for the first time in this cycle. By 2023, the economy could return to pre-Covid growth on the order of 2%.</p><p><blockquote>但对质量的关注将是关键，尤其是进入2022年下半年。届时美联储可能会在本周期内首次加息。到2023年，经济可能会恢复到新冠疫情前2%左右的增长。</blockquote></p><p> “The historical playbook is that coming out of a recession, you tend to see low-quality outperformance that lasts about a year, then leadership flips back to high quality,” Calvasina says. “But that transition from low quality back to high quality tends to be very bumpy.”</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳表示：“历史上的剧本是，走出衰退后，你往往会看到持续一年左右的低质量优异表现，然后领导力又会恢复到高质量。”“但从低质量回到高质量的转变往往非常坎坷。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Shopping List for Fall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>秋季购物清单</b></blockquote></p><p> Most strategists favor a combination of economically sensitive stocks and steady growers, including tech shares. Financials should do well, particularly if bond yields rise.</p><p><blockquote>大多数策略师青睐对经济敏感的股票和稳定增长的股票（包括科技股）的组合。金融股应该会表现良好，特别是如果债券收益率上升的话。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a54c4bd114c1a5f7f700d1fc14d30d8e\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Although stocks with quality attributes have outperformed the market this summer, according to a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a> analysis, the quality factor has lagged since positive vaccine news was first reported last November.</p><p><blockquote>尽管今年夏天具有质量属性的股票表现优于大盘，但根据一家<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">贝莱德</a>分析，自去年11月首次报道疫苗正面消息以来，质量因素一直滞后。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re moving into a mid-cycle environment, when underlying economic growth remains strong but momentum begins to decelerate,” BlackRock’s Fredericks says. “Our research shows that quality stocks perform particularly well in such a period.”</p><p><blockquote>贝莱德的弗雷德里克斯表示：“我们正在进入周期中期环境，基本经济增长仍然强劲，但势头开始减速。”“我们的研究表明，优质股票在这样的时期表现尤其出色。”</blockquote></p><p> He recommends overweighting profitable technology companies; financials, including banks, and consumer staples and industrials with those quality characteristics.</p><p><blockquote>他建议增持盈利的科技公司；金融，包括银行，以及具有这些质量特征的消费品和工业。</blockquote></p><p> For <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>’s head of equity strategy, Christopher Harvey, a mix of post-pandemic beneficiaries and defensive exposure is the way to go. He constructed a basket of stocks with lower-than-average volatility—which should outperform during periods of market uncertainty or stress this fall—and high “Covid beta,” or sensitivity to good or bad news about the pandemic. One requirement; The stocks had to be rated the equivalent of Buy by Wells Fargo’s equity analysts.</p><p><blockquote>为了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>股票策略主管克里斯托弗·哈维(Christopher Harvey)表示，大流行后受益者和防御性敞口的结合才是正确的选择。他构建了一篮子波动性低于平均水平的股票——在今年秋季市场不确定性或压力时期，这些股票应该会跑赢大盘——并且“新冠贝塔值”较高，即对有关大流行的好消息或坏消息的敏感性。一个要求；富国银行的股票分析师必须将这些股票评级为“买入”。</blockquote></p><p> “There’s near-term economic uncertainty, interest-rate uncertainty, and Covid risk, and generally we’re in a seasonally weaker part of the year around September,” says Harvey. “If we can balance low vol and high Covid beta, we can mitigate a lot of the upcoming uncertainty and volatility around timing of several of those catalysts. Longer-term, though, we still want to have that [reopening exposure.]”</p><p><blockquote>哈维表示：“近期经济存在不确定性、利率不确定性和新冠病毒风险，一般来说，我们正处于9月份左右的季节性疲软时期。”“如果我们能够平衡低波动性和高新贝塔值，我们就可以减轻其中几种催化剂时机即将到来的不确定性和波动性。不过，从长远来看，我们仍然希望[重新开放风险。]”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Harvey’s list of low-volatility stocks with high Covid beta includesApple(AAPL),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>(BAC),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">Northern</a> Trust(NTRS),Lowe’s(LOW),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a> Holdings(IQV), andMasco(MAS).</p><p><blockquote>哈维列出的具有高新贝塔值的低波动性股票名单包括苹果(AAPL)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>（BAC），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">北方的</a>信托(NTRS)、劳氏(LOW)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a>控股公司（IQV）和马斯科公司（MAS）。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, banks are the most frequently recommended group for the months ahead. TheInvesco KBW Bankexchange-traded fund (KBWB) provides broad exposure to the sector in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，银行是未来几个月最常被推荐的群体。Invesco KBW银行交易所交易基金(KBWB)提供对美国该行业的广泛投资。</blockquote></p><p> “We like the valuations [and] credit quality; they are now allowed to buy back shares and increase dividends, and there’s higher Covid beta,” says Harvey.</p><p><blockquote>“我们喜欢估值和信用质量；他们现在被允许回购股票并增加股息，而且新冠贝塔值更高，”哈维说。</blockquote></p><p> Cheaper valuations mean less potential downside in a market correction. And, contrary to much of the rest of the stock market, higher interest rates would be a tailwind for the banks, which could then charge more for loans.</p><p><blockquote>较低的估值意味着市场调整中潜在的下行空间较小。而且，与股市的其他大部分地区相反，更高的利率将成为银行的顺风车，银行可能会收取更高的贷款费用。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">Healthcare</a> stocks also have some fans. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">Healthcare</a> has both defensive and growth attributes to it,” Wilson says. “You’re paying a lot less per unit of growth in healthcare today than you are in other sectors. So we think it provides good balance in this market when we’re worried about valuation.” Health insurerHumana(HUM) makes Wilson’s “Fresh Money Buy List” of stocks Buy-rated by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a> analysts and fitting his macro views.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">医疗保健</a>股票也有一些粉丝。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">医疗保健</a>具有防御性和成长性，”威尔逊说。“如今，医疗保健行业每单位增长支付的费用比其他行业低得多。因此，我们认为，当我们担心估值时，它为这个市场提供了良好的平衡。”健康保险公司Humana(HUM)跻身威尔逊“新鲜资金买入名单”股票买入评级<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师并符合他的宏观观点。</blockquote></p><p> Nuveen’s Malik is also looking toward health care for relatively underpriced growth exposure, namely in the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology groups. She points toSeagen(SGEN), which is focused on oncology drugs and could be an attractive acquisition target for a pharma giant.</p><p><blockquote>Nuveen的Malik还将目光投向医疗保健领域，以获得相对低估的增长机会，即制药和生物技术领域。她指出了Seagen(SGEN)，该公司专注于肿瘤药物，可能成为制药巨头有吸引力的收购目标。</blockquote></p><p> Malik also likesAbbVie(ABBV) which trades at an undemanding eight times forward earnings and sports a 4.7% dividend yield. The coming expiration of patents on its blockbuster anti-inflammatory drug Humira has kept some investors away, but Malik is confident that management can limit the damage and sees promising drugs in development at the $200 billion company.</p><p><blockquote>马利克还喜欢艾伯维(ABBV)，该公司的预期市盈率为8倍，股息收益率为4.7%。其重磅抗炎药修美乐(Humira)的专利即将到期，这让一些投资者望而却步，但马利克相信管理层能够限制损失，并看到这家价值2000亿美元的公司正在开发有前途的药物。</blockquote></p><p> Both stocks have had a tough time in recent days. Seagen fell more than 8% last week, to around $152, on news that its co-founder and CEO sold a large number of shares recently. AndAbbVietanked 7% Wednesday, to $112.27, after the Food and Drug Administration required new warning labels for JAK inhibitors, a type of anti-rheumatoid drug that includes one of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">AbbVie</a>’s most promising post-Humira products.</p><p><blockquote>这两只股票最近几天都过得很艰难。Seagen上周跌超8%，报152美元左右，因有消息称其联合创始人兼首席执行官近期大量抛售股票。在美国食品和药物管理局要求为JAK抑制剂贴上新的警告标签后，ABBVIE周三上涨7%，至112.27美元。JAK抑制剂是一种抗类风湿药物，其中包括一种<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">艾伯维</a>最有前途的后修美乐产品。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>(PFE),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>(AXP),Johnson &amp; Johnson(JNJ), andCisco Systems(CSCO) are other S&amp;P 500 members that pass a<i>Barron’s</i>screen for quality attributes.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a>（PFE），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">美国运通</a>(AXP)、强生(JNJ)和思科系统(CSCO)是其他通过A的标普500成员<i>巴伦周刊</i>筛选质量属性。</blockquote></p><p> After a year of steady gains, investors might be reminded this fall that stocks can also decline, as growth momentum and policy support begin to fade. But underlying economic strength supports buying the dip, should the market drop from its highs. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> be more selective. And go with quality.</p><p><blockquote>经过一年的稳定上涨后，今年秋天投资者可能会被提醒，随着增长势头和政策支持开始消退，股市也可能下跌。但如果市场从高点下跌，潜在的经济实力支持逢低买入。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>更有选择性。追求质量。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-could-struggle-this-fall-market-strategists-say-stick-with-quality-companies-51630699840?siteid=yhoof2\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-could-struggle-this-fall-market-strategists-say-stick-with-quality-companies-51630699840?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130130857","content_text":"What a year this has been for the markets! Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and (until recently) a mostly receding pandemic, theS&P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.\nTailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnings growth are likely to decelerate through the end of the year. What’s more, theFederal Reserve has all but promised to start tapering its bond buyingin coming months, and the Biden administration has proposed hiking corporate and personal tax rates. None of this is apt to sit well with holders of increasingly pricey shares.\nIn other words,brace for a volatile fallin which conflicting forces buffet stocks, bonds, and investors. “The everything rally is behind us,” says Saira Malik, chief investment officer of global equities at Nuveen. “It’s not going to be a sharply rising economic tide that lifts all boats from here.”\nThat’s the general consensus among the six market strategists and chief investment officers whomBarron’srecently consulted. All see the S&P 500 ending the year near Thursday’s close of 4536. Their average target: 4585.\nNext year’s gains look muted, as well, relative to recent trends. The group expects the S&P 500 to tack on another 6% in 2022, rising to about 4800.\nWith stocks trading for about 21 times the coming year’s expected earnings,bonds yielding little, and cash yielding less than nothing after accounting for inflation, investors face tough asset-allocation decisions. In place of the “everything rally,” which lifted fast-growing tech stocks, no-growth meme stocks, and the Dogecoins of the digital world, our market watchers recommend focusing on “quality” investments. In equities, that means shares of businesses with solid balance sheets, expanding profit margins, and ample and recurring free cash flow. Even if the averages do little in coming months, these stocks are likely to shine.\nThe stock market’s massive rally in the past year was a gift of sorts from the Federal Reserve, which flooded the financial system with money to stave off theeconomic damage wrought by the Covid pandemic. Since March 2020, the U.S. central bank has been buying a combined $120 billion a month of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, while keeping its benchmark federal-funds rate target at 0% to 0.25%. These moves have depressed bond yields and pushed investors into riskier assets, including stocks.\nFed Chairman Jerome Powell has said that the central bank might begin to wind down, or taper, its emergency asset purchases sometime in the coming quarters, a move that could roil risk assets of all sorts. “For us, it’s very simple: Tapering is tightening,” says Mike Wilson, chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist atMorgan Stanley.“It’s the first step away from maximum accommodation [by the Fed]. They’re being very calculated about it this time, but the bottom line is that it should have a negative effect on equity valuations.”\nThe government’s stimulus spending, too, has peaked, the strategists note. Supplemental federal unemployment benefits of $300 a week expire as of Sept. 6. Although Congress seems likely to pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill this fall, the near-term economic impact will pale in comparison to the multiple rounds of stimulus introduced since March 2020.\nThe bill includes about $550 billion in new spending—a fraction of the trillions authorized by previous laws—and it will be spread out over many years. The short-term boost that infrastructure stimulus will give to consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70% of U.S. growth domestic product, won’t come close to what the economy saw after millions of Americans received checks from the government this past year.\nA budget bill approved by Democrats only should follow the infrastructure bill, and include spending to support Medicare expansion, child-care funding, free community-college tuition, public housing, and climate-related measures, among other party priorities. Congress could vote to lift taxes on corporations and high-earning individuals to offset that spending—another near-term risk to the market.\nOther politically charged issues likewise could derail equities this fall. Congress needs to pass a debt-ceiling increase to fund the government, and a stop-gap spending bill later this month to avoid a Washington shutdown in October.\nFor now, our market experts are relatively sanguine about the economic impact of the Delta variant of Covid-19. As long as vaccines remain effective in minimizing severe infections that lead to hospitalizations and deaths, the negative effects of the current Covid wave will be limited largely to the travel industry and movie theaters, they say. Wall Street’s base case for the market doesn’t include a renewed wave of lockdowns that would undermine economic growth.\nInflation has been a hot topic at the Fed and among investors, partly because it has been running so hot of late. The U.S. consumer price index rose at an annualized 5.4% in both June and July—a spike the Fed calls transitory, although others aren’t so sure. The strategists are taking Powell’s side of the argument; they expect inflation to fall significantly next year. Their forecasts fall between 2.5% and 3.5%, which they consider manageable for consumers and companies, and an acceptable side effect of rapid economic growth. An inflation rate above 2.5%, however, combined with Fed tapering, would mean that now ultralow bond yields should rise.\n“We think inflation will continue to run hotter than it has since the financial crisis, but it’s hard for us to see inflation much over 2.5% once many of the reopening-related pressures start to dissipate,” says Michael Fredericks, head of income investing for theBlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group. “So bond yields do need to move up, but that will happen gradually.”\nThe strategists see the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbing to around 1.65% by year end. That’s about 35 basis points—or hundredths of a percentage point—above current levels, but below the 1.75% that the yield reached at its March 2021 highs. By next year, the 10-year Treasury could yield 2%, the group says. Those aren’t big moves in absolute terms, but they’re meaningful for the bond market—and could be even more so for stocks.\nRising yields tend to weigh on stock valuations for two reasons. Higher-yielding bonds offer competition to stocks, and companies’ future earnings are worthless in the present when discounting them at a higher rate. Still, a 10-year yield around 2% won’t be enough to knock stock valuations down to pre-Covid levels. Even if yields climb, market strategists see the price/earnings multiple of the S&P 500 holding well above its 30-year average of 16 times forward earnings. The index’s forward P/E topped 23 last fall.\n\nAs long as 10-year Treasury yields stay in the 2% range, the S&P 500 should be able to command a forward P/E in the high teens, strategists say. A return to the 16-times long-term average isn’t in the cards until there is more pressure from much higher yields—or something else that causes stocks to fall.\nIf yields surge past 2% or 2.25%, investors could start to question equity valuations more seriously, says State Street’schief portfolio strategist, Gaurav Mallik: “We haven’t seen [the 10-year yield] above 2% for some time now, so that’s an important sentiment level for investors.”\n\nWilson is more concerned, noting that the stock market’s valuation risk is asymmetric: “It’s very unlikely that multiples are going to go up, and there’s a good chance that they go down more than 10% given the deceleration in growth and where we are in the cycle,” he says\nIf 16 to 23 times forward earnings is the range, he adds, “you’re already at the very high end of that. There’s more potential risk than reward.”\nSome P/E-multiple compression is baked into all six strategists’ forecasts, heaping greater importance on the path of profit growth. On average, the strategists expect S&P 500 earnings to jump 46% this year, to about $204, after last year’s earnings depression. That could be followed by a more normalized gain of 9% in 2022, to about $222.50.\nA potential headwind would be a higher federal corporate-tax rate in 2022. The details of Democrats’ spending and taxation plans will be worked out in the coming weeks, and investors can expect to hear a lot more about potential tax increases. Several strategists see a 25% federal rate on corporate profits as a likely compromise figure, above the 21% in place since 2018, but below the 28% sought by the Biden administration.\nAn increase of that magnitude would shave about 5% off S&P 500 earnings next year. The index could drop by a similar amount as the passage of the Democrats’ reconciliation bill nears this fall, but the impact should be limited to that initial correction. As with the tax cuts in December 2017, the change should be a one-time event for the market, some strategists predict.\nThese concerns aside, investors shouldn’t miss the bigger picture: The U.S. economy is in good shape and growing robustly. The strategists expect gross domestic product to rise 6.3% this year and about 4% in 2022. “The cyclical uplift and above-trend growth will continue at least through 2022, and we want to be biased toward assets that have that exposure,” says Mallik.\n\n “We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next. When GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”— Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets\n\nThe State Street strategist recommends overweighting materials, financials, and technology in investment portfolios. That approach includes both economically sensitive companies, such as banks and miners, and steady growers in the tech sector.\nRBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, likewise takes a barbell approach, with both cyclical and growth exposure. Her preferred sectors are energy, financials, and technology.\n“Valuations are still a lot more attractive in financials and energy than growth [sectors such as technology or consumer discretionary,]” Calvasina says. “The catalyst in the near term is getting out of the current Covid wave... We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next, and traditionally when GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”\nBut the focus on quality will be pivotal, especially moving into the second half of 2022. That’s when the Fed is likely to hike interest rates for the first time in this cycle. By 2023, the economy could return to pre-Covid growth on the order of 2%.\n“The historical playbook is that coming out of a recession, you tend to see low-quality outperformance that lasts about a year, then leadership flips back to high quality,” Calvasina says. “But that transition from low quality back to high quality tends to be very bumpy.”\nA Shopping List for Fall\nMost strategists favor a combination of economically sensitive stocks and steady growers, including tech shares. Financials should do well, particularly if bond yields rise.\n\nAlthough stocks with quality attributes have outperformed the market this summer, according to a BlackRock analysis, the quality factor has lagged since positive vaccine news was first reported last November.\n“We’re moving into a mid-cycle environment, when underlying economic growth remains strong but momentum begins to decelerate,” BlackRock’s Fredericks says. “Our research shows that quality stocks perform particularly well in such a period.”\nHe recommends overweighting profitable technology companies; financials, including banks, and consumer staples and industrials with those quality characteristics.\nFor Wells Fargo’s head of equity strategy, Christopher Harvey, a mix of post-pandemic beneficiaries and defensive exposure is the way to go. He constructed a basket of stocks with lower-than-average volatility—which should outperform during periods of market uncertainty or stress this fall—and high “Covid beta,” or sensitivity to good or bad news about the pandemic. One requirement; The stocks had to be rated the equivalent of Buy by Wells Fargo’s equity analysts.\n“There’s near-term economic uncertainty, interest-rate uncertainty, and Covid risk, and generally we’re in a seasonally weaker part of the year around September,” says Harvey. “If we can balance low vol and high Covid beta, we can mitigate a lot of the upcoming uncertainty and volatility around timing of several of those catalysts. Longer-term, though, we still want to have that [reopening exposure.]”\nHarvey’s list of low-volatility stocks with high Covid beta includesApple(AAPL),Bank of America(BAC),Northern Trust(NTRS),Lowe’s(LOW),IQVIA Holdings(IQV), andMasco(MAS).\nOverall, banks are the most frequently recommended group for the months ahead. TheInvesco KBW Bankexchange-traded fund (KBWB) provides broad exposure to the sector in the U.S.\n“We like the valuations [and] credit quality; they are now allowed to buy back shares and increase dividends, and there’s higher Covid beta,” says Harvey.\nCheaper valuations mean less potential downside in a market correction. And, contrary to much of the rest of the stock market, higher interest rates would be a tailwind for the banks, which could then charge more for loans.\nHealthcare stocks also have some fans. “Healthcare has both defensive and growth attributes to it,” Wilson says. “You’re paying a lot less per unit of growth in healthcare today than you are in other sectors. So we think it provides good balance in this market when we’re worried about valuation.” Health insurerHumana(HUM) makes Wilson’s “Fresh Money Buy List” of stocks Buy-rated by Morgan Stanley analysts and fitting his macro views.\nNuveen’s Malik is also looking toward health care for relatively underpriced growth exposure, namely in the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology groups. She points toSeagen(SGEN), which is focused on oncology drugs and could be an attractive acquisition target for a pharma giant.\nMalik also likesAbbVie(ABBV) which trades at an undemanding eight times forward earnings and sports a 4.7% dividend yield. The coming expiration of patents on its blockbuster anti-inflammatory drug Humira has kept some investors away, but Malik is confident that management can limit the damage and sees promising drugs in development at the $200 billion company.\nBoth stocks have had a tough time in recent days. Seagen fell more than 8% last week, to around $152, on news that its co-founder and CEO sold a large number of shares recently. AndAbbVietanked 7% Wednesday, to $112.27, after the Food and Drug Administration required new warning labels for JAK inhibitors, a type of anti-rheumatoid drug that includes one of AbbVie’s most promising post-Humira products.\nPfizer(PFE),American Express(AXP),Johnson & Johnson(JNJ), andCisco Systems(CSCO) are other S&P 500 members that pass aBarron’sscreen for quality attributes.\nAfter a year of steady gains, investors might be reminded this fall that stocks can also decline, as growth momentum and policy support begin to fade. But underlying economic strength supports buying the dip, should the market drop from its highs. Just be more selective. And go with quality.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2979,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":814588613,"gmtCreate":1630844568932,"gmtModify":1631890487144,"author":{"id":"3582928782122574","authorId":"3582928782122574","name":"Hoba","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59c2266c2e959396b467872738c290cc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582928782122574","idStr":"3582928782122574"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Huat","listText":"Huat","text":"Huat","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/814588613","repostId":"1157895022","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157895022","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630810619,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1157895022?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-05 10:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Beat the market with this quant system that’s very bullish on stocks at record highs<blockquote>利用这个非常看好历史新高股票的量化系统击败市场</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157895022","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Vance Howard’s HCM Tactical Growth Fund moves you in and out of the stock market when prudent to do ","content":"<p>  <b>Vance Howard’s HCM Tactical Growth Fund moves you in and out of the stock market when prudent to do so. So far his team of computer scientists’ strategy has paid off.</b>  Imagine you had a money-making machine to harvest gains in the stock market while you sat back to enjoy life.</p><p><blockquote><b>万斯·霍华德(Vance Howard)的HCM战术增长基金在谨慎的情况下让您进出股市。到目前为止，他的计算机科学家团队的策略已经得到了回报。</b>想象一下，当你坐下来享受生活时，你有一台赚钱机器在股市中收获收益。</blockquote></p><p> That’s everyone’s dream, right? Investor Vance Howard thinks he’s found it.</p><p><blockquote>那是每个人的梦想，对吧？投资者万斯·霍华德认为他已经找到了。</blockquote></p><p> Howard and his small army of computer programmers atHoward Capital Managementin Roswell, Ga., have a quantitative system that posts great returns.</p><p><blockquote>霍华德和他的一小队计算机程序员在佐治亚州罗斯威尔的资本管理公司工作。，有一个量化系统，张贴巨大的回报。</blockquote></p><p> His HCM Tactical Growth Fund&nbsp;HCMGX,+0.35%beats its Russell 1000&nbsp;benchmark index and large-blend fund category by 8.5-10.4 percentage points annualized over the past five years, according to Morningstar. That is no small feat, and not only because it has to overcome a 2.22% fee. Beating the market is simply not easy. His HCM Dividend Sector PlusHCMQX,-0.05%) and HCM Income PlusHCMLX,+0.30%funds post similar outperformance.</p><p><blockquote>根据晨星公司的数据，他的HCM战术增长基金HCMGX,+0.35%在过去五年中的年化增长率比罗素1000基准指数和大型混合基金类别高出8.5-10.4个百分点。这不是一个小壮举，不仅因为它必须克服2.22%的费用。战胜市场并不容易。他的HCM Dividend Sector PlusHCMQX,-0.05%)和HCM Income PlusHCMLX,+0.30%基金也表现类似。</blockquote></p><p> There are drawbacks, which I detail below. (Among them: Potentially long stretches of underperformance and regular tax bills.) But first, what can we learn from this winner?</p><p><blockquote>有缺点，我在下面详述。（其中包括：潜在的长期表现不佳和定期的税单。）但首先，我们能从这位赢家身上学到什么？</blockquote></p><p> So-called quants never share all the details of their proprietary systems, but Howard shares a lot, as you’ll see. And this Texas rancher has a lot of good advice based on “horse sense” — not surprising, given his infectious passion for the markets, and his three decades of experience as a pro.</p><p><blockquote>所谓的量化分析师从不分享他们专有系统的所有细节，但霍华德分享了很多，正如你将看到的。这位德克萨斯州牧场主有很多基于“马的感觉”的好建议——考虑到他对市场富有感染力的热情，以及他三十年的职业经验，这并不奇怪。</blockquote></p><p> Here are five lessons, 12 exchange traded funds (ETFs) and four stocks to consider, from a recent interview with him.</p><p><blockquote>以下是最近对他的采访中的五个教训、12只交易所交易基金(ETF)和四只值得考虑的股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #1: Don’t be emotional</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第一课：不要情绪化</b></blockquote></p><p> It’s no surprise so many people do poorly in the market. Evolution has programmed us to fail. For survival, we’ve learned to run from things that frightens us. And crave more of things that are pleasurable — like sweets or fats to store calories ahead of what might be a long stretch without food. But in the market, acting on the emotions of fear and greed invariably make us do the wrong thing at the wrong time. Sell at the bottom, buy at the top.</p><p><blockquote>难怪这么多人在市场上表现不佳。进化让我们注定要失败。为了生存，我们学会了逃避让我们害怕的事情。渴望更多令人愉快的东西——比如甜食或脂肪，以便在长时间没有食物之前储存卡路里。但在市场中，对恐惧和贪婪的情绪采取行动总是会让我们在错误的时间做错误的事情。底部卖出，顶部买入。</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, we’re programmed to believe being with the crowd brings safety. If you’re a zebra on the Savanna, you are more likely to get picked off by a predator if you go it alone. The problem here is being part of a crowd — and crowd psychology — dumb us down to a purely emotional level. This is why people in crowds do terrible things they would never do on their own. It doesn’t matter how smart you are. When you join a crowd, you lose a lot of IQ points. Base emotions take over.</p><p><blockquote>同样，我们被设定为相信和人群在一起会带来安全。如果你是稀树草原上的斑马，如果你单干，你更有可能被捕食者吃掉。这里的问题是，成为人群的一部分——以及人群心理——让我们变得愚蠢到纯粹的情感层面。这就是为什么人群中的人会做他们自己永远不会做的可怕的事情。你有多聪明并不重要。当你加入一个人群时，你会失去很多智商点。基本情绪占了上风。</blockquote></p><p> To do well in the market, you have to counteract these tendencies. “One of the biggest mistakes individual investors and money managers make is getting emotional,” says Howard. “Let your emotions go.”</p><p><blockquote>要想在市场上做得好，你必须抵制这些倾向。“个人投资者和基金经理犯的最大错误之一就是变得情绪化，”霍华德说。“放下你的情绪。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #2: Have a system and stick to it</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第二课：有一个系统并坚持下去</b></blockquote></p><p> To exorcise emotion, have a system. “And don’t second guess it,” says Howard. “This keeps you from letting the pandemic or Afghanistan scare you out of the market.” He calls his system the HCM-BuyLine. It is basically a momentum and trend-following system — which often works well in the markets.</p><p><blockquote>驱除情绪，要有一个系统。“不要怀疑它，”霍华德说。“这可以防止你被大流行或阿富汗吓出市场。”他评级了他的系统HCM-购买线。它基本上是一个动量和趋势跟踪系统——通常在市场上运行良好。</blockquote></p><p> The HCM-BuyLine basically works like this. First, rather than use the S&amp;P 500SPX,-0.03%or the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.21%,Howard blends several stock indices to create his own index. Then he uses a moving average that tells him whether the market is in an uptrend or downtrend.</p><p><blockquote>HCM-BuyLine基本上是这样工作的。首先，霍华德没有使用标准普尔500SPX（-0.03%）或道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA（-0.21%），而是混合了几个股票指数来创建自己的指数。然后他使用移动平均线来告诉他市场是处于上升趋势还是下降趋势。</blockquote></p><p> When the moving average drops 3.5%, he sells 35%. If it drops 6.5%, he sells another 35%. He rarely goes to 100% cash.</p><p><blockquote>当移动平均线下跌3.5%时，他卖出35%。如果下跌6.5%，他就再卖出35%。他很少100%现金。</blockquote></p><p> “If the BuyLine is positive, we will stay long no matter what,” he says. “We take all the emotion out of the equation by letting the math decide.”</p><p><blockquote>“如果买入线为正，无论如何我们都会长期持有，”他说。“我们通过让数学来决定，将所有情感从等式中剔除。”</blockquote></p><p> Right now, it’s bullish. (More on this below.)</p><p><blockquote>目前，情况看涨。（更多信息见下文。）</blockquote></p><p> Your system also has to tell you when to get back in.</p><p><blockquote>你的系统还必须告诉你什么时候回去。</blockquote></p><p> “That’s where most people screw up,” he says. “They get out of the market, and they don’t know when to get back in.” The HCM-BuyLine gives a buy signal when his custom index trades above its moving average for six consecutive sessions, and then goes on to trade above the high hit during those six days.</p><p><blockquote>“这就是大多数人搞砸的地方，”他说。“他们退出市场，不知道什么时候才能重新进入。”当他的定制指数连续六个交易日高于其移动平均线时，HCM-买入线会发出买入信号，然后继续高于这六天触及的高点。</blockquote></p><p> You don’t need a system that calls exact market tops or bottoms. Instead, the BuyLine keeps Howard out of down markets 85% of the time, and in for 85% of the good times.</p><p><blockquote>你不需要一个评级精确市场顶部或底部的系统。相反，买入线让霍华德在85%的时间里远离低迷的市场，在85%的好时光里远离。</blockquote></p><p> “If we can do that consistently, we have superior returns and a less stressful life,” he says. “Being all in during a bad tape is no fun.”</p><p><blockquote>“如果我们能够始终如一地做到这一点，我们就会获得更高的回报和更少的生活压力，”他说。“在一盘糟糕的磁带中全力以赴一点也不好玩。”</blockquote></p><p> His system is slow to get him out of the market, but quick to get him back in. Not even a 10% correction will necessarily move him out. He’s often buying those pullbacks. Getting back in fast makes sense, because recoveries off bottoms tend to happen fast.</p><p><blockquote>他的系统让他退出市场很慢，但让他回来很快。即使是10%的修正也不一定能让他出局。他经常买入那些回调。快速反弹是有意义的，因为从底部恢复往往会很快。</blockquote></p><p> “The HCM-BuyLine takes all the emotion out of the process,” says Howard.</p><p><blockquote>“HCM-BuyLine消除了整个过程中的所有情绪，”霍华德说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #3: Don’t fight the tape</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第三课：不要和磁带作对</b></blockquote></p><p> This concept is one of the core pieces of wisdom from Marty Zweig’s classic book, “Winning on Wall Street.”</p><p><blockquote>这一概念是马蒂·茨威格经典著作《在华尔街获胜》中的核心智慧之一。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “You have to stay on the right side of market,” agrees Howard. “If you try to trade long in a bad market, it is painful.”</p><p><blockquote>“你必须站在市场的正确一边，”霍华德表示同意。“如果你试图在糟糕的市场中做多，那是很痛苦的。”</blockquote></p><p> In other words, don’t try to be a hero.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，不要试图成为英雄。</blockquote></p><p> “Sometimes, not losing money is where you want to be,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>“有时候，不赔钱才是你想要的，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, don’t turn cautious just because the market hits new highs — like now. You should love new highs, because it is a sign of market strength that may likely endure.</p><p><blockquote>同样，不要仅仅因为市场创下新高就变得谨慎——就像现在这样。你应该喜欢新高，因为这是市场力量的标志，可能会持续下去。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #4: Keep it simple</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第四课：保持简单</b></blockquote></p><p> As you’ll see below, Howard doesn’t use esoteric instruments such as derivatives, swaps or index options. He doesn’t even trade foreign stocks or currencies. This is refreshing for individual investors, because we have a harder time accessing those tools.</p><p><blockquote>正如您将在下面看到的，霍华德不使用衍生品、掉期或指数期权等深奥工具。他甚至不交易外国股票或货币。这对个人投资者来说令人耳目一新，因为我们更难获得这些工具。</blockquote></p><p> “You don’t have to trade crazy stuff,” he says. “You can trade plain-vanilla ETFs and beat everybody out there.”</p><p><blockquote>“你不必交易疯狂的东西，”他说。“你可以交易普通的ETF并击败所有人。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #5: How to trade the current market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第5课：如何交易当前市场</b></blockquote></p><p> First, be long.</p><p><blockquote>首先，做长。</blockquote></p><p> “The HCM-BuyLine is very positive. We are 100% in,” says Howard. “The market is broadening out. It is getting pretty exciting. We do not see it turn around any time soon. We are buying pullbacks.”</p><p><blockquote>“HCM-购买线非常积极。我们100%参与，”霍华德说。“市场正在扩大。它变得相当令人兴奋。我们认为它不会很快好转。我们正在买入回调。”</blockquote></p><p> One bullish signal is all the cash on the sidelines. “If there is any relief in Covid, we may see a big rally. We may end up with a great fall [season].”</p><p><blockquote>一个看涨信号是所有现金都在观望。“如果新冠疫情有所缓解，我们可能会看到大幅反弹。我们可能会以一个伟大的秋季[季节]结束。”</blockquote></p><p> Howard uses momentum indicators to select stocks and ETFs, too. For sectors he favors the following.</p><p><blockquote>霍华德也使用动量指标来选择股票和ETF。对于行业，他倾向于以下几点。</blockquote></p><p> He likes health care, tradable through the iShares US HealthcareIYH,-0.04%and ProShares Ultra Health CareRXL,+0.12%ETFs. He’s turning more bullish on biotech, which he plays via the iShares Biotechnology ETFIBB,-0.11%.</p><p><blockquote>他喜欢医疗保健，可通过iShares US HealthcareIYH(-0.04%)和ProShares Ultra Health CareRXL(+0.12%)ETF进行交易。他变得更加看好生物技术，他通过iShares Biotechnology ETFIBB进行投资，-0.11%。</blockquote></p><p> He likes consumer discretionary tradable through the iShares US Consumer ServicesIYC,-0.30%,and airlines via US Global JetsJETS,-1.17%.He also likes tech exposure via the Invesco QQQ TrustQQQ,+0.31%,iShares US TechnologyIYW,+0.50%and&nbsp;iShares SemiconductorSOXX,+0.75%.</p><p><blockquote>他喜欢通过iShares US Consumer ServicesIYC(-0.30%)进行交易的非必需消费品，以及通过US Global JetsJETS(-1.17%)进行交易的航空公司。他还喜欢通过Invesco QQQ TrustQQQ(+0.31%)、iShares US TechnologyIYW(+0.50%)进行科技投资和iShares半导体SOXX，+0.75%。</blockquote></p><p> He likes small-caps via the Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index FundVBK,+0.07%.And convertible bonds via SPDR Bloomberg Barclays Convertible SecuritiesCWB,+0.64%and iShares Convertible BondICVT,+0.37%.</p><p><blockquote>他喜欢Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index FundVBK，+0.07%的小盘股。以及SPDR Bloomberg Barclays可转换证券CWB，+0.64%和iShares可转换债券ICVT，+0.37%的可转换债券。</blockquote></p><p> As for individual names, he singles out MicrosoftMSFT,-0.00%and AppleAAPL,+0.42%in tech, as well as Amazon.comAMZN,+0.43%and TeslaTSLA,+0.16%.</p><p><blockquote>至于个人名称，他特别提到了科技股中的微软MSFT(-0.00%)和苹果AAPL(+0.42%)，以及亚马逊MAMZN(+0.43%)和特斯拉TSLA(+0.16%)。</blockquote></p><p> Also consider Howard’s two ETFs: The HCM Defender 100 IndexQQH,+0.62%and HCM Defender 500 IndexLGH,+1.32%.</p><p><blockquote>另请考虑Howard的两只ETF：HCM Defender 100 IndexQQH，+0.62%和HCM Defender 500 IndexLGH，+1.32%。</blockquote></p><p> He prefers to add to holdings on 1%-3% dips.</p><p><blockquote>他更喜欢在下跌1%-3%时增持。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A few drawbacks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一些缺点</b></blockquote></p><p> His HCM Tactical Growth fund has a history of posting two-year stretches of underperformance of 1.5% to 8.8%, since it was launched in 2015. The fund then came roaring back to net the very positive five-year outperformance cited above. Investing in his system can require patience.</p><p><blockquote>他的HCM战术增长基金自2015年推出以来，曾连续两年表现不佳，涨幅为1.5%至8.8%。随后，该基金卷土重来，实现了上述非常积极的五年优异表现。投资他的系统需要耐心。</blockquote></p><p> Every manager, including Warren Buffett, can have a stretch of underperformance, says Howard.</p><p><blockquote>霍华德说，每个经理人，包括沃伦·巴菲特，都可能有一段时间表现不佳。</blockquote></p><p> “We are in the odds game,” he says. “Even in the odds game, you can have a bad hand or two thrown at you.”</p><p><blockquote>“我们正处于赔率游戏中，”他说。“即使在赔率游戏中，你也可能会遇到一两手糟糕的牌。”</blockquote></p><p> Another challenge is the high turnover, which is 140% a year for Tactical Growth. This means Uncle Sam takes a big cut in the good years. So if you buy Howard’s funds, you may want to do so in a tax-protected account.</p><p><blockquote>另一个挑战是高流动率，战术增长每年140%。这意味着山姆大叔在好年景中会得到很大的提成。因此，如果您购买霍华德的基金，您可能希望在避税账户中购买。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Beat the market with this quant system that’s very bullish on stocks at record highs<blockquote>利用这个非常看好历史新高股票的量化系统击败市场</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBeat the market with this quant system that’s very bullish on stocks at record highs<blockquote>利用这个非常看好历史新高股票的量化系统击败市场</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-05 10:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>Vance Howard’s HCM Tactical Growth Fund moves you in and out of the stock market when prudent to do so. So far his team of computer scientists’ strategy has paid off.</b>  Imagine you had a money-making machine to harvest gains in the stock market while you sat back to enjoy life.</p><p><blockquote><b>万斯·霍华德(Vance Howard)的HCM战术增长基金在谨慎的情况下让您进出股市。到目前为止，他的计算机科学家团队的策略已经得到了回报。</b>想象一下，当你坐下来享受生活时，你有一台赚钱机器在股市中收获收益。</blockquote></p><p> That’s everyone’s dream, right? Investor Vance Howard thinks he’s found it.</p><p><blockquote>那是每个人的梦想，对吧？投资者万斯·霍华德认为他已经找到了。</blockquote></p><p> Howard and his small army of computer programmers atHoward Capital Managementin Roswell, Ga., have a quantitative system that posts great returns.</p><p><blockquote>霍华德和他的一小队计算机程序员在佐治亚州罗斯威尔的资本管理公司工作。，有一个量化系统，张贴巨大的回报。</blockquote></p><p> His HCM Tactical Growth Fund&nbsp;HCMGX,+0.35%beats its Russell 1000&nbsp;benchmark index and large-blend fund category by 8.5-10.4 percentage points annualized over the past five years, according to Morningstar. That is no small feat, and not only because it has to overcome a 2.22% fee. Beating the market is simply not easy. His HCM Dividend Sector PlusHCMQX,-0.05%) and HCM Income PlusHCMLX,+0.30%funds post similar outperformance.</p><p><blockquote>根据晨星公司的数据，他的HCM战术增长基金HCMGX,+0.35%在过去五年中的年化增长率比罗素1000基准指数和大型混合基金类别高出8.5-10.4个百分点。这不是一个小壮举，不仅因为它必须克服2.22%的费用。战胜市场并不容易。他的HCM Dividend Sector PlusHCMQX,-0.05%)和HCM Income PlusHCMLX,+0.30%基金也表现类似。</blockquote></p><p> There are drawbacks, which I detail below. (Among them: Potentially long stretches of underperformance and regular tax bills.) But first, what can we learn from this winner?</p><p><blockquote>有缺点，我在下面详述。（其中包括：潜在的长期表现不佳和定期的税单。）但首先，我们能从这位赢家身上学到什么？</blockquote></p><p> So-called quants never share all the details of their proprietary systems, but Howard shares a lot, as you’ll see. And this Texas rancher has a lot of good advice based on “horse sense” — not surprising, given his infectious passion for the markets, and his three decades of experience as a pro.</p><p><blockquote>所谓的量化分析师从不分享他们专有系统的所有细节，但霍华德分享了很多，正如你将看到的。这位德克萨斯州牧场主有很多基于“马的感觉”的好建议——考虑到他对市场富有感染力的热情，以及他三十年的职业经验，这并不奇怪。</blockquote></p><p> Here are five lessons, 12 exchange traded funds (ETFs) and four stocks to consider, from a recent interview with him.</p><p><blockquote>以下是最近对他的采访中的五个教训、12只交易所交易基金(ETF)和四只值得考虑的股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #1: Don’t be emotional</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第一课：不要情绪化</b></blockquote></p><p> It’s no surprise so many people do poorly in the market. Evolution has programmed us to fail. For survival, we’ve learned to run from things that frightens us. And crave more of things that are pleasurable — like sweets or fats to store calories ahead of what might be a long stretch without food. But in the market, acting on the emotions of fear and greed invariably make us do the wrong thing at the wrong time. Sell at the bottom, buy at the top.</p><p><blockquote>难怪这么多人在市场上表现不佳。进化让我们注定要失败。为了生存，我们学会了逃避让我们害怕的事情。渴望更多令人愉快的东西——比如甜食或脂肪，以便在长时间没有食物之前储存卡路里。但在市场中，对恐惧和贪婪的情绪采取行动总是会让我们在错误的时间做错误的事情。底部卖出，顶部买入。</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, we’re programmed to believe being with the crowd brings safety. If you’re a zebra on the Savanna, you are more likely to get picked off by a predator if you go it alone. The problem here is being part of a crowd — and crowd psychology — dumb us down to a purely emotional level. This is why people in crowds do terrible things they would never do on their own. It doesn’t matter how smart you are. When you join a crowd, you lose a lot of IQ points. Base emotions take over.</p><p><blockquote>同样，我们被设定为相信和人群在一起会带来安全。如果你是稀树草原上的斑马，如果你单干，你更有可能被捕食者吃掉。这里的问题是，成为人群的一部分——以及人群心理——让我们变得愚蠢到纯粹的情感层面。这就是为什么人群中的人会做他们自己永远不会做的可怕的事情。你有多聪明并不重要。当你加入一个人群时，你会失去很多智商点。基本情绪占了上风。</blockquote></p><p> To do well in the market, you have to counteract these tendencies. “One of the biggest mistakes individual investors and money managers make is getting emotional,” says Howard. “Let your emotions go.”</p><p><blockquote>要想在市场上做得好，你必须抵制这些倾向。“个人投资者和基金经理犯的最大错误之一就是变得情绪化，”霍华德说。“放下你的情绪。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #2: Have a system and stick to it</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第二课：有一个系统并坚持下去</b></blockquote></p><p> To exorcise emotion, have a system. “And don’t second guess it,” says Howard. “This keeps you from letting the pandemic or Afghanistan scare you out of the market.” He calls his system the HCM-BuyLine. It is basically a momentum and trend-following system — which often works well in the markets.</p><p><blockquote>驱除情绪，要有一个系统。“不要怀疑它，”霍华德说。“这可以防止你被大流行或阿富汗吓出市场。”他评级了他的系统HCM-购买线。它基本上是一个动量和趋势跟踪系统——通常在市场上运行良好。</blockquote></p><p> The HCM-BuyLine basically works like this. First, rather than use the S&amp;P 500SPX,-0.03%or the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.21%,Howard blends several stock indices to create his own index. Then he uses a moving average that tells him whether the market is in an uptrend or downtrend.</p><p><blockquote>HCM-BuyLine基本上是这样工作的。首先，霍华德没有使用标准普尔500SPX（-0.03%）或道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA（-0.21%），而是混合了几个股票指数来创建自己的指数。然后他使用移动平均线来告诉他市场是处于上升趋势还是下降趋势。</blockquote></p><p> When the moving average drops 3.5%, he sells 35%. If it drops 6.5%, he sells another 35%. He rarely goes to 100% cash.</p><p><blockquote>当移动平均线下跌3.5%时，他卖出35%。如果下跌6.5%，他就再卖出35%。他很少100%现金。</blockquote></p><p> “If the BuyLine is positive, we will stay long no matter what,” he says. “We take all the emotion out of the equation by letting the math decide.”</p><p><blockquote>“如果买入线为正，无论如何我们都会长期持有，”他说。“我们通过让数学来决定，将所有情感从等式中剔除。”</blockquote></p><p> Right now, it’s bullish. (More on this below.)</p><p><blockquote>目前，情况看涨。（更多信息见下文。）</blockquote></p><p> Your system also has to tell you when to get back in.</p><p><blockquote>你的系统还必须告诉你什么时候回去。</blockquote></p><p> “That’s where most people screw up,” he says. “They get out of the market, and they don’t know when to get back in.” The HCM-BuyLine gives a buy signal when his custom index trades above its moving average for six consecutive sessions, and then goes on to trade above the high hit during those six days.</p><p><blockquote>“这就是大多数人搞砸的地方，”他说。“他们退出市场，不知道什么时候才能重新进入。”当他的定制指数连续六个交易日高于其移动平均线时，HCM-买入线会发出买入信号，然后继续高于这六天触及的高点。</blockquote></p><p> You don’t need a system that calls exact market tops or bottoms. Instead, the BuyLine keeps Howard out of down markets 85% of the time, and in for 85% of the good times.</p><p><blockquote>你不需要一个评级精确市场顶部或底部的系统。相反，买入线让霍华德在85%的时间里远离低迷的市场，在85%的好时光里远离。</blockquote></p><p> “If we can do that consistently, we have superior returns and a less stressful life,” he says. “Being all in during a bad tape is no fun.”</p><p><blockquote>“如果我们能够始终如一地做到这一点，我们就会获得更高的回报和更少的生活压力，”他说。“在一盘糟糕的磁带中全力以赴一点也不好玩。”</blockquote></p><p> His system is slow to get him out of the market, but quick to get him back in. Not even a 10% correction will necessarily move him out. He’s often buying those pullbacks. Getting back in fast makes sense, because recoveries off bottoms tend to happen fast.</p><p><blockquote>他的系统让他退出市场很慢，但让他回来很快。即使是10%的修正也不一定能让他出局。他经常买入那些回调。快速反弹是有意义的，因为从底部恢复往往会很快。</blockquote></p><p> “The HCM-BuyLine takes all the emotion out of the process,” says Howard.</p><p><blockquote>“HCM-BuyLine消除了整个过程中的所有情绪，”霍华德说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #3: Don’t fight the tape</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第三课：不要和磁带作对</b></blockquote></p><p> This concept is one of the core pieces of wisdom from Marty Zweig’s classic book, “Winning on Wall Street.”</p><p><blockquote>这一概念是马蒂·茨威格经典著作《在华尔街获胜》中的核心智慧之一。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “You have to stay on the right side of market,” agrees Howard. “If you try to trade long in a bad market, it is painful.”</p><p><blockquote>“你必须站在市场的正确一边，”霍华德表示同意。“如果你试图在糟糕的市场中做多，那是很痛苦的。”</blockquote></p><p> In other words, don’t try to be a hero.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，不要试图成为英雄。</blockquote></p><p> “Sometimes, not losing money is where you want to be,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>“有时候，不赔钱才是你想要的，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, don’t turn cautious just because the market hits new highs — like now. You should love new highs, because it is a sign of market strength that may likely endure.</p><p><blockquote>同样，不要仅仅因为市场创下新高就变得谨慎——就像现在这样。你应该喜欢新高，因为这是市场力量的标志，可能会持续下去。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #4: Keep it simple</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第四课：保持简单</b></blockquote></p><p> As you’ll see below, Howard doesn’t use esoteric instruments such as derivatives, swaps or index options. He doesn’t even trade foreign stocks or currencies. This is refreshing for individual investors, because we have a harder time accessing those tools.</p><p><blockquote>正如您将在下面看到的，霍华德不使用衍生品、掉期或指数期权等深奥工具。他甚至不交易外国股票或货币。这对个人投资者来说令人耳目一新，因为我们更难获得这些工具。</blockquote></p><p> “You don’t have to trade crazy stuff,” he says. “You can trade plain-vanilla ETFs and beat everybody out there.”</p><p><blockquote>“你不必交易疯狂的东西，”他说。“你可以交易普通的ETF并击败所有人。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #5: How to trade the current market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第5课：如何交易当前市场</b></blockquote></p><p> First, be long.</p><p><blockquote>首先，做长。</blockquote></p><p> “The HCM-BuyLine is very positive. We are 100% in,” says Howard. “The market is broadening out. It is getting pretty exciting. We do not see it turn around any time soon. We are buying pullbacks.”</p><p><blockquote>“HCM-购买线非常积极。我们100%参与，”霍华德说。“市场正在扩大。它变得相当令人兴奋。我们认为它不会很快好转。我们正在买入回调。”</blockquote></p><p> One bullish signal is all the cash on the sidelines. “If there is any relief in Covid, we may see a big rally. We may end up with a great fall [season].”</p><p><blockquote>一个看涨信号是所有现金都在观望。“如果新冠疫情有所缓解，我们可能会看到大幅反弹。我们可能会以一个伟大的秋季[季节]结束。”</blockquote></p><p> Howard uses momentum indicators to select stocks and ETFs, too. For sectors he favors the following.</p><p><blockquote>霍华德也使用动量指标来选择股票和ETF。对于行业，他倾向于以下几点。</blockquote></p><p> He likes health care, tradable through the iShares US HealthcareIYH,-0.04%and ProShares Ultra Health CareRXL,+0.12%ETFs. He’s turning more bullish on biotech, which he plays via the iShares Biotechnology ETFIBB,-0.11%.</p><p><blockquote>他喜欢医疗保健，可通过iShares US HealthcareIYH(-0.04%)和ProShares Ultra Health CareRXL(+0.12%)ETF进行交易。他变得更加看好生物技术，他通过iShares Biotechnology ETFIBB进行投资，-0.11%。</blockquote></p><p> He likes consumer discretionary tradable through the iShares US Consumer ServicesIYC,-0.30%,and airlines via US Global JetsJETS,-1.17%.He also likes tech exposure via the Invesco QQQ TrustQQQ,+0.31%,iShares US TechnologyIYW,+0.50%and&nbsp;iShares SemiconductorSOXX,+0.75%.</p><p><blockquote>他喜欢通过iShares US Consumer ServicesIYC(-0.30%)进行交易的非必需消费品，以及通过US Global JetsJETS(-1.17%)进行交易的航空公司。他还喜欢通过Invesco QQQ TrustQQQ(+0.31%)、iShares US TechnologyIYW(+0.50%)进行科技投资和iShares半导体SOXX，+0.75%。</blockquote></p><p> He likes small-caps via the Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index FundVBK,+0.07%.And convertible bonds via SPDR Bloomberg Barclays Convertible SecuritiesCWB,+0.64%and iShares Convertible BondICVT,+0.37%.</p><p><blockquote>他喜欢Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index FundVBK，+0.07%的小盘股。以及SPDR Bloomberg Barclays可转换证券CWB，+0.64%和iShares可转换债券ICVT，+0.37%的可转换债券。</blockquote></p><p> As for individual names, he singles out MicrosoftMSFT,-0.00%and AppleAAPL,+0.42%in tech, as well as Amazon.comAMZN,+0.43%and TeslaTSLA,+0.16%.</p><p><blockquote>至于个人名称，他特别提到了科技股中的微软MSFT(-0.00%)和苹果AAPL(+0.42%)，以及亚马逊MAMZN(+0.43%)和特斯拉TSLA(+0.16%)。</blockquote></p><p> Also consider Howard’s two ETFs: The HCM Defender 100 IndexQQH,+0.62%and HCM Defender 500 IndexLGH,+1.32%.</p><p><blockquote>另请考虑Howard的两只ETF：HCM Defender 100 IndexQQH，+0.62%和HCM Defender 500 IndexLGH，+1.32%。</blockquote></p><p> He prefers to add to holdings on 1%-3% dips.</p><p><blockquote>他更喜欢在下跌1%-3%时增持。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A few drawbacks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一些缺点</b></blockquote></p><p> His HCM Tactical Growth fund has a history of posting two-year stretches of underperformance of 1.5% to 8.8%, since it was launched in 2015. The fund then came roaring back to net the very positive five-year outperformance cited above. Investing in his system can require patience.</p><p><blockquote>他的HCM战术增长基金自2015年推出以来，曾连续两年表现不佳，涨幅为1.5%至8.8%。随后，该基金卷土重来，实现了上述非常积极的五年优异表现。投资他的系统需要耐心。</blockquote></p><p> Every manager, including Warren Buffett, can have a stretch of underperformance, says Howard.</p><p><blockquote>霍华德说，每个经理人，包括沃伦·巴菲特，都可能有一段时间表现不佳。</blockquote></p><p> “We are in the odds game,” he says. “Even in the odds game, you can have a bad hand or two thrown at you.”</p><p><blockquote>“我们正处于赔率游戏中，”他说。“即使在赔率游戏中，你也可能会遇到一两手糟糕的牌。”</blockquote></p><p> Another challenge is the high turnover, which is 140% a year for Tactical Growth. This means Uncle Sam takes a big cut in the good years. So if you buy Howard’s funds, you may want to do so in a tax-protected account.</p><p><blockquote>另一个挑战是高流动率，战术增长每年140%。这意味着山姆大叔在好年景中会得到很大的提成。因此，如果您购买霍华德的基金，您可能希望在避税账户中购买。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/beat-the-market-with-this-quant-system-thats-very-bullish-on-stocks-at-record-highs-11630761531?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/beat-the-market-with-this-quant-system-thats-very-bullish-on-stocks-at-record-highs-11630761531?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157895022","content_text":"Vance Howard’s HCM Tactical Growth Fund moves you in and out of the stock market when prudent to do so. So far his team of computer scientists’ strategy has paid off.\n\nImagine you had a money-making machine to harvest gains in the stock market while you sat back to enjoy life.\nThat’s everyone’s dream, right? Investor Vance Howard thinks he’s found it.\nHoward and his small army of computer programmers atHoward Capital Managementin Roswell, Ga., have a quantitative system that posts great returns.\nHis HCM Tactical Growth Fund HCMGX,+0.35%beats its Russell 1000 benchmark index and large-blend fund category by 8.5-10.4 percentage points annualized over the past five years, according to Morningstar. That is no small feat, and not only because it has to overcome a 2.22% fee. Beating the market is simply not easy. His HCM Dividend Sector PlusHCMQX,-0.05%) and HCM Income PlusHCMLX,+0.30%funds post similar outperformance.\nThere are drawbacks, which I detail below. (Among them: Potentially long stretches of underperformance and regular tax bills.) But first, what can we learn from this winner?\nSo-called quants never share all the details of their proprietary systems, but Howard shares a lot, as you’ll see. And this Texas rancher has a lot of good advice based on “horse sense” — not surprising, given his infectious passion for the markets, and his three decades of experience as a pro.\nHere are five lessons, 12 exchange traded funds (ETFs) and four stocks to consider, from a recent interview with him.\nLesson #1: Don’t be emotional\nIt’s no surprise so many people do poorly in the market. Evolution has programmed us to fail. For survival, we’ve learned to run from things that frightens us. And crave more of things that are pleasurable — like sweets or fats to store calories ahead of what might be a long stretch without food. But in the market, acting on the emotions of fear and greed invariably make us do the wrong thing at the wrong time. Sell at the bottom, buy at the top.\nLikewise, we’re programmed to believe being with the crowd brings safety. If you’re a zebra on the Savanna, you are more likely to get picked off by a predator if you go it alone. The problem here is being part of a crowd — and crowd psychology — dumb us down to a purely emotional level. This is why people in crowds do terrible things they would never do on their own. It doesn’t matter how smart you are. When you join a crowd, you lose a lot of IQ points. Base emotions take over.\nTo do well in the market, you have to counteract these tendencies. “One of the biggest mistakes individual investors and money managers make is getting emotional,” says Howard. “Let your emotions go.”\nLesson #2: Have a system and stick to it\nTo exorcise emotion, have a system. “And don’t second guess it,” says Howard. “This keeps you from letting the pandemic or Afghanistan scare you out of the market.” He calls his system the HCM-BuyLine. It is basically a momentum and trend-following system — which often works well in the markets.\nThe HCM-BuyLine basically works like this. First, rather than use the S&P 500SPX,-0.03%or the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.21%,Howard blends several stock indices to create his own index. Then he uses a moving average that tells him whether the market is in an uptrend or downtrend.\nWhen the moving average drops 3.5%, he sells 35%. If it drops 6.5%, he sells another 35%. He rarely goes to 100% cash.\n“If the BuyLine is positive, we will stay long no matter what,” he says. “We take all the emotion out of the equation by letting the math decide.”\nRight now, it’s bullish. (More on this below.)\nYour system also has to tell you when to get back in.\n“That’s where most people screw up,” he says. “They get out of the market, and they don’t know when to get back in.” The HCM-BuyLine gives a buy signal when his custom index trades above its moving average for six consecutive sessions, and then goes on to trade above the high hit during those six days.\nYou don’t need a system that calls exact market tops or bottoms. Instead, the BuyLine keeps Howard out of down markets 85% of the time, and in for 85% of the good times.\n“If we can do that consistently, we have superior returns and a less stressful life,” he says. “Being all in during a bad tape is no fun.”\nHis system is slow to get him out of the market, but quick to get him back in. Not even a 10% correction will necessarily move him out. He’s often buying those pullbacks. Getting back in fast makes sense, because recoveries off bottoms tend to happen fast.\n“The HCM-BuyLine takes all the emotion out of the process,” says Howard.\nLesson #3: Don’t fight the tape\nThis concept is one of the core pieces of wisdom from Marty Zweig’s classic book, “Winning on Wall Street.”\n“You have to stay on the right side of market,” agrees Howard. “If you try to trade long in a bad market, it is painful.”\nIn other words, don’t try to be a hero.\n“Sometimes, not losing money is where you want to be,” he says.\nLikewise, don’t turn cautious just because the market hits new highs — like now. You should love new highs, because it is a sign of market strength that may likely endure.\nLesson #4: Keep it simple\nAs you’ll see below, Howard doesn’t use esoteric instruments such as derivatives, swaps or index options. He doesn’t even trade foreign stocks or currencies. This is refreshing for individual investors, because we have a harder time accessing those tools.\n“You don’t have to trade crazy stuff,” he says. “You can trade plain-vanilla ETFs and beat everybody out there.”\nLesson #5: How to trade the current market\nFirst, be long.\n“The HCM-BuyLine is very positive. We are 100% in,” says Howard. “The market is broadening out. It is getting pretty exciting. We do not see it turn around any time soon. We are buying pullbacks.”\nOne bullish signal is all the cash on the sidelines. “If there is any relief in Covid, we may see a big rally. We may end up with a great fall [season].”\nHoward uses momentum indicators to select stocks and ETFs, too. For sectors he favors the following.\nHe likes health care, tradable through the iShares US HealthcareIYH,-0.04%and ProShares Ultra Health CareRXL,+0.12%ETFs. He’s turning more bullish on biotech, which he plays via the iShares Biotechnology ETFIBB,-0.11%.\nHe likes consumer discretionary tradable through the iShares US Consumer ServicesIYC,-0.30%,and airlines via US Global JetsJETS,-1.17%.He also likes tech exposure via the Invesco QQQ TrustQQQ,+0.31%,iShares US TechnologyIYW,+0.50%and iShares SemiconductorSOXX,+0.75%.\nHe likes small-caps via the Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index FundVBK,+0.07%.And convertible bonds via SPDR Bloomberg Barclays Convertible SecuritiesCWB,+0.64%and iShares Convertible BondICVT,+0.37%.\nAs for individual names, he singles out MicrosoftMSFT,-0.00%and AppleAAPL,+0.42%in tech, as well as Amazon.comAMZN,+0.43%and TeslaTSLA,+0.16%.\nAlso consider Howard’s two ETFs: The HCM Defender 100 IndexQQH,+0.62%and HCM Defender 500 IndexLGH,+1.32%.\nHe prefers to add to holdings on 1%-3% dips.\nA few drawbacks\nHis HCM Tactical Growth fund has a history of posting two-year stretches of underperformance of 1.5% to 8.8%, since it was launched in 2015. The fund then came roaring back to net the very positive five-year outperformance cited above. Investing in his system can require patience.\nEvery manager, including Warren Buffett, can have a stretch of underperformance, says Howard.\n“We are in the odds game,” he says. “Even in the odds game, you can have a bad hand or two thrown at you.”\nAnother challenge is the high turnover, which is 140% a year for Tactical Growth. This means Uncle Sam takes a big cut in the good years. So if you buy Howard’s funds, you may want to do so in a tax-protected account.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":725,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":815233066,"gmtCreate":1630679567255,"gmtModify":1631890487147,"author":{"id":"3582928782122574","authorId":"3582928782122574","name":"Hoba","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59c2266c2e959396b467872738c290cc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582928782122574","idStr":"3582928782122574"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Huat","listText":"Huat","text":"Huat","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/815233066","repostId":"1185745995","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":668,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":815297392,"gmtCreate":1630679442516,"gmtModify":1631890487147,"author":{"id":"3582928782122574","authorId":"3582928782122574","name":"Hoba","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59c2266c2e959396b467872738c290cc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582928782122574","idStr":"3582928782122574"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Huat","listText":"Huat","text":"Huat","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/815297392","repostId":"815922363","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":815922363,"gmtCreate":1630637152448,"gmtModify":1630637614803,"author":{"id":"3527667596890271","authorId":"3527667596890271","name":"Buy_Sell","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5f0ed79a338c758a22e0b4ea13bf9d2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667596890271","idStr":"3527667596890271"},"themes":[],"title":"🔥【9月3日】能源股回升，区块链上扬！今天买什么？","htmlText":"聊聊今日份的交易想法，包括对于大盘走势后续的看法？看涨/看跌哪只股票、晒晒单等等。 港股市场 9月3日，恒生指数开盘下跌67.76点，跌幅0.26%，报26022.67点；国企指数开盘下跌21.67点，跌幅0.23%，报9319.63点；红筹指数开盘上涨3.53点，涨幅0.09%，报3977.99点。 恒生科技指数跌0.34%，科技股多数下跌，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">$快手-W(01024)$</a> 跌超2%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$</a> 、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">$百度集团-SW(09888)$</a> 、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09626\">$哔哩哔哩-SW(09626)$</a> 、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">$美团-W(03690)$</a> 跌超1% 中资券商股集体高开，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06806\">$申万宏源(06806)$</a> 大涨9.6%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06066\">$中信建投证券(06066)$</a> 涨超6%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03908\">$中金公司(03908)$</a> 涨超5%，中信证券、中国银","listText":"聊聊今日份的交易想法，包括对于大盘走势后续的看法？看涨/看跌哪只股票、晒晒单等等。 港股市场 9月3日，恒生指数开盘下跌67.76点，跌幅0.26%，报26022.67点；国企指数开盘下跌21.67点，跌幅0.23%，报9319.63点；红筹指数开盘上涨3.53点，涨幅0.09%，报3977.99点。 恒生科技指数跌0.34%，科技股多数下跌，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">$快手-W(01024)$</a> 跌超2%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$</a> 、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">$百度集团-SW(09888)$</a> 、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09626\">$哔哩哔哩-SW(09626)$</a> 、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">$美团-W(03690)$</a> 跌超1% 中资券商股集体高开，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06806\">$申万宏源(06806)$</a> 大涨9.6%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06066\">$中信建投证券(06066)$</a> 涨超6%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03908\">$中金公司(03908)$</a> 涨超5%，中信证券、中国银","text":"聊聊今日份的交易想法，包括对于大盘走势后续的看法？看涨/看跌哪只股票、晒晒单等等。 港股市场 9月3日，恒生指数开盘下跌67.76点，跌幅0.26%，报26022.67点；国企指数开盘下跌21.67点，跌幅0.23%，报9319.63点；红筹指数开盘上涨3.53点，涨幅0.09%，报3977.99点。 恒生科技指数跌0.34%，科技股多数下跌，$快手-W(01024)$ 跌超2%，$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$ 、$百度集团-SW(09888)$ 、$哔哩哔哩-SW(09626)$ 、$美团-W(03690)$ 跌超1% 中资券商股集体高开，$申万宏源(06806)$ 大涨9.6%，$中信建投证券(06066)$ 涨超6%，$中金公司(03908)$ 涨超5%，中信证券、中国银","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ef6c9cd81a136f5fb3809e3654109e6","width":"500","height":"278"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/815922363","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"subType":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":593,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":813702652,"gmtCreate":1630242065476,"gmtModify":1704957382323,"author":{"id":"3582928782122574","authorId":"3582928782122574","name":"Hoba","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59c2266c2e959396b467872738c290cc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582928782122574","idStr":"3582928782122574"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Huat//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4088390766152690\">@mingliang104</a>: Nice sale! Like pls&nbsp;","listText":"Huat//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4088390766152690\">@mingliang104</a>: Nice sale! Like pls&nbsp;","text":"Huat//@mingliang104: Nice sale! Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/813702652","repostId":"1160859146","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1160859146","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626920814,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1160859146?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-22 10:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Prudential to Sell Its Retirement Division to Great-West for $3.55 Billion<blockquote>保诚集团将以35.5亿美元的价格将其退休部门出售给Great-West</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160859146","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- Prudential Financial Inc. said it would sell its full-service retirement business to ","content":"<p>(Bloomberg) -- Prudential Financial Inc. said it would sell its full-service retirement business to a unit of Canada’s Great-West Lifeco Inc. for $3.55 billion as the life insurer continues implementing Chief Executive Officer Charles Lowrey’s three-year transformation plan.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）——保德信金融公司(Prudential Financial Inc.)表示，将以35.5亿美元的价格将其全方位服务退休业务出售给加拿大Great-West Lifeco Inc.的一个部门，该公司继续实施首席执行官查尔斯·劳里(Charles Lowrey)的三年转型计划。</blockquote></p><p> The business will be purchased by Great-West’s Greenwood Village, Colorado-based Empower Retirement division. Prudential expects total proceeds of about $2.8 billion from the sale, which is expected to close in the first quarter of next year, the companies said in a statement. It will boost Empower’s customer base by about 4 million people to 16.6 million participants.</p><p><blockquote>该业务将由Great-West位于科罗拉多州格林伍德村的Empower Retirement部门收购。两家公司在一份声明中表示，保诚预计此次出售的总收益约为28亿美元，预计将于明年第一季度完成。这将使Empower的客户群增加约400万人，达到1660万参与者。</blockquote></p><p> Lowrey is working to transform Prudential’s business through deals, cost savings and share buybacks, including selling off interest-rate sensitive businesses and making acquisitions in growth markets. Prudential will continue participating in the retirement market, serving retirees, employers and those collecting on annuities, through businesses including its individual-annuities unit and PGIM, Prudential’s asset manager.</p><p><blockquote>劳里正在努力通过交易、成本节约和股票回购来转变保德信的业务，包括出售对利率敏感的业务以及在增长市场进行收购。保诚将继续参与退休市场，通过其个人年金部门和保诚资产管理公司PGIM等业务为退休人员、雇主和年金领取者提供服务。</blockquote></p><p> “Today’s announcement is a significant milestone in Prudential’s transformation and the execution of our strategy to become a higher growth, less market sensitive, more nimble business,” Lowrey said in the statement.</p><p><blockquote>劳里在声明中表示：“今天的公告是保德信转型和执行我们战略的一个重要里程碑，该战略旨在成为一家增长更高、市场敏感性更低、更灵活的企业。”</blockquote></p><p> Prudential, based in Newark, New Jersey, said it will use proceeds from the transaction for general corporate purposes. It now plans to increase capital returned to shareholders by 2023 to $11 billion from the $10.5 billion announced in May, and will reduce financial leverage.</p><p><blockquote>总部位于新泽西州纽瓦克的保诚集团表示，将把交易所得用于一般企业用途。它现在计划到2023年将返还给股东的资本从5月份宣布的105亿美元增加到110亿美元，并将降低财务杠杆。</blockquote></p><p> Bloomberg News reported earlier this year that Prudential was exploring a sale of its retirement business. The deal comes as insurers part with retirement-related assets to focus on core operations. Great-West agreed last year to buy Massachusetts Mutual Life Insurance Co.’s retirement-services arm for $3.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>彭博新闻社今年早些时候报道称，保诚集团正在考虑出售其退休业务。这笔交易达成之际，保险公司正在剥离退休相关资产，专注于核心业务。Great-West去年同意以34亿美元收购马萨诸塞州互助人寿保险公司的退休服务部门。</blockquote></p><p> “Empower’s acquisition of Prudential’s full-service retirement business will add significant scale and capabilities, further solidifying its leadership position in the world’s largest retirement market,” Great-West CEO Paul Mahon said in a separate statement.</p><p><blockquote>Great-West首席执行官Paul Mahon在另一份声明中表示：“Empower收购Prudential的全方位服务退休业务将显着增加规模和能力，进一步巩固其在全球最大退休市场的领导地位。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Prudential to Sell Its Retirement Division to Great-West for $3.55 Billion<blockquote>保诚集团将以35.5亿美元的价格将其退休部门出售给Great-West</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPrudential to Sell Its Retirement Division to Great-West for $3.55 Billion<blockquote>保诚集团将以35.5亿美元的价格将其退休部门出售给Great-West</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Bloomberg</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-22 10:26</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Bloomberg) -- Prudential Financial Inc. said it would sell its full-service retirement business to a unit of Canada’s Great-West Lifeco Inc. for $3.55 billion as the life insurer continues implementing Chief Executive Officer Charles Lowrey’s three-year transformation plan.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）——保德信金融公司(Prudential Financial Inc.)表示，将以35.5亿美元的价格将其全方位服务退休业务出售给加拿大Great-West Lifeco Inc.的一个部门，该公司继续实施首席执行官查尔斯·劳里(Charles Lowrey)的三年转型计划。</blockquote></p><p> The business will be purchased by Great-West’s Greenwood Village, Colorado-based Empower Retirement division. Prudential expects total proceeds of about $2.8 billion from the sale, which is expected to close in the first quarter of next year, the companies said in a statement. It will boost Empower’s customer base by about 4 million people to 16.6 million participants.</p><p><blockquote>该业务将由Great-West位于科罗拉多州格林伍德村的Empower Retirement部门收购。两家公司在一份声明中表示，保诚预计此次出售的总收益约为28亿美元，预计将于明年第一季度完成。这将使Empower的客户群增加约400万人，达到1660万参与者。</blockquote></p><p> Lowrey is working to transform Prudential’s business through deals, cost savings and share buybacks, including selling off interest-rate sensitive businesses and making acquisitions in growth markets. Prudential will continue participating in the retirement market, serving retirees, employers and those collecting on annuities, through businesses including its individual-annuities unit and PGIM, Prudential’s asset manager.</p><p><blockquote>劳里正在努力通过交易、成本节约和股票回购来转变保德信的业务，包括出售对利率敏感的业务以及在增长市场进行收购。保诚将继续参与退休市场，通过其个人年金部门和保诚资产管理公司PGIM等业务为退休人员、雇主和年金领取者提供服务。</blockquote></p><p> “Today’s announcement is a significant milestone in Prudential’s transformation and the execution of our strategy to become a higher growth, less market sensitive, more nimble business,” Lowrey said in the statement.</p><p><blockquote>劳里在声明中表示：“今天的公告是保德信转型和执行我们战略的一个重要里程碑，该战略旨在成为一家增长更高、市场敏感性更低、更灵活的企业。”</blockquote></p><p> Prudential, based in Newark, New Jersey, said it will use proceeds from the transaction for general corporate purposes. It now plans to increase capital returned to shareholders by 2023 to $11 billion from the $10.5 billion announced in May, and will reduce financial leverage.</p><p><blockquote>总部位于新泽西州纽瓦克的保诚集团表示，将把交易所得用于一般企业用途。它现在计划到2023年将返还给股东的资本从5月份宣布的105亿美元增加到110亿美元，并将降低财务杠杆。</blockquote></p><p> Bloomberg News reported earlier this year that Prudential was exploring a sale of its retirement business. The deal comes as insurers part with retirement-related assets to focus on core operations. Great-West agreed last year to buy Massachusetts Mutual Life Insurance Co.’s retirement-services arm for $3.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>彭博新闻社今年早些时候报道称，保诚集团正在考虑出售其退休业务。这笔交易达成之际，保险公司正在剥离退休相关资产，专注于核心业务。Great-West去年同意以34亿美元收购马萨诸塞州互助人寿保险公司的退休服务部门。</blockquote></p><p> “Empower’s acquisition of Prudential’s full-service retirement business will add significant scale and capabilities, further solidifying its leadership position in the world’s largest retirement market,” Great-West CEO Paul Mahon said in a separate statement.</p><p><blockquote>Great-West首席执行官Paul Mahon在另一份声明中表示：“Empower收购Prudential的全方位服务退休业务将显着增加规模和能力，进一步巩固其在全球最大退休市场的领导地位。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/prudential-sell-retirement-division-great-132237534.html\">Bloomberg</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PFH":"Prudential Financial Inc"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/prudential-sell-retirement-division-great-132237534.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160859146","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- Prudential Financial Inc. said it would sell its full-service retirement business to a unit of Canada’s Great-West Lifeco Inc. for $3.55 billion as the life insurer continues implementing Chief Executive Officer Charles Lowrey’s three-year transformation plan.\nThe business will be purchased by Great-West’s Greenwood Village, Colorado-based Empower Retirement division. Prudential expects total proceeds of about $2.8 billion from the sale, which is expected to close in the first quarter of next year, the companies said in a statement. It will boost Empower’s customer base by about 4 million people to 16.6 million participants.\nLowrey is working to transform Prudential’s business through deals, cost savings and share buybacks, including selling off interest-rate sensitive businesses and making acquisitions in growth markets. Prudential will continue participating in the retirement market, serving retirees, employers and those collecting on annuities, through businesses including its individual-annuities unit and PGIM, Prudential’s asset manager.\n“Today’s announcement is a significant milestone in Prudential’s transformation and the execution of our strategy to become a higher growth, less market sensitive, more nimble business,” Lowrey said in the statement.\nPrudential, based in Newark, New Jersey, said it will use proceeds from the transaction for general corporate purposes. It now plans to increase capital returned to shareholders by 2023 to $11 billion from the $10.5 billion announced in May, and will reduce financial leverage.\nBloomberg News reported earlier this year that Prudential was exploring a sale of its retirement business. The deal comes as insurers part with retirement-related assets to focus on core operations. Great-West agreed last year to buy Massachusetts Mutual Life Insurance Co.’s retirement-services arm for $3.4 billion.\n“Empower’s acquisition of Prudential’s full-service retirement business will add significant scale and capabilities, further solidifying its leadership position in the world’s largest retirement market,” Great-West CEO Paul Mahon said in a separate statement.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PFH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":643,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":813702171,"gmtCreate":1630241961193,"gmtModify":1704957382150,"author":{"id":"3582928782122574","authorId":"3582928782122574","name":"Hoba","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59c2266c2e959396b467872738c290cc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582928782122574","idStr":"3582928782122574"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Huat","listText":"Huat","text":"Huat","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/813702171","repostId":"2163304079","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":492,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":813521863,"gmtCreate":1630217025152,"gmtModify":1704957168164,"author":{"id":"3582928782122574","authorId":"3582928782122574","name":"Hoba","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59c2266c2e959396b467872738c290cc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582928782122574","idStr":"3582928782122574"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Huat","listText":"Huat","text":"Huat","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/813521863","repostId":"836486908","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":836486908,"gmtCreate":1629514628204,"gmtModify":1631890736950,"author":{"id":"3579574507989417","authorId":"3579574507989417","name":"jingshen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f2e7a9c8bf801981646c34ca8c306f4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579574507989417","idStr":"3579574507989417"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a>this regulation really killingus","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a>this regulation really killingus","text":"$Alibaba(BABA)$this regulation really 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21:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Treasury To Start Reducing Bond Auction Sizes As Soon As November<blockquote>财政部最快将于11月开始缩减债券拍卖规模</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106185106","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Heading into today's quarterly refunding announcement, the bond market was on edge over the (low) po","content":"<p>Heading into today's quarterly refunding announcement, the bond market was on edge over the (low) possibility widely discussed on sellside desks, that the Treasury could cut trim coupon auction sizes in the next few months to coincide with the Fed's tapering as the Treasury's funding needs have gradually emerged to be less than expected thanks to higher than expected tax revenues. In fact, according to some the drop in yields in recent weeks has been not due to the ongoing monster squeeze but due to expectations that there will be less TSY supply than demand.</p><p><blockquote>在今天的季度再融资公告发布之前，债券市场对卖方广泛讨论的（低）可能性感到紧张，即财政部可能在未来几个月内削减息票拍卖规模，以配合美联储的缩减规模，因为财政部的资金需求由于税收收入高于预期，需求逐渐低于预期。事实上，根据一些人的说法，最近几周收益率下降并不是由于持续的巨大挤压，而是由于预期TSY供应将少于需求。</blockquote></p><p> So when the Treasury released itslatest refunding statement(whose highlights hit about 10 mins early after some newswire broke the embargo), battered TSY bears breathed a sigh of relief because the Treasury said that contrary growing expectations, it \"<b>does not anticipate making any changes to nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes over the next quarter</b>.\" Here is the proposed treasury issuance scheduled for Q3:</p><p><blockquote>因此，当财政部发布最新的退款声明时（在一些新闻专线打破禁运后，其亮点提前约10分钟发布），遭受重创的TSY空头松了一口气，因为财政部表示，与日益增长的预期相反，它“<b>预计下一季度名义息票和FRN拍卖规模不会发生任何变化</b>.”以下是计划于第三季度发行的拟议国债：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38e4d7e4d0f23901ba21254476fb0640\" tg-width=\"674\" tg-height=\"923\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> However, in line with expectations, \"<b>continuing current issuance sizes and patterns may provide more borrowing capacity than is needed to address borrowing needs over the intermediate-to-long term</b>.\" As a result, the \"Treasury will continue to engage with a variety of market participants to better understand the supply and demand dynamics for existing securities,<b>with an expectation of announcing an initial set of auction size reductions as soon as the November refunding announcement</b>\" which is also in line with what most Primary Dealers had expected (among the 24 primary dealers in U.S. government securities, j<i>ust three expected smaller auctions during the August-to-October quarter, with many more seeing an announcement in November).</i>&nbsp; In other words,<b>shortly after the Fed's taper announcement at or just after Jackson Hole, the Treasury will follow up with an issuance cut of its own.</b></p><p><blockquote>不过，符合预期，”<b>继续目前的发行规模和模式可能会提供比满足中长期借款需求所需更多的借款能力</b>因此，“财政部将继续与各种市场参与者接触，以更好地了解现有证券的供需动态，<b>预计在11月退款公告发布后立即宣布初步削减拍卖规模</b>“这也符合大多数一级交易商的预期（在美国政府证券的24家一级交易商中，j<i>ust three预计8月至10月季度将进行规模较小的拍卖，还有更多拍卖将在11月发布公告）。</i>换句话说，<b>在美联储在杰克逊霍尔宣布缩减规模后不久或之后，财政部将跟进自己的减持。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4ea04a7e2abe81b943385a9bdeab027\" tg-width=\"661\" tg-height=\"495\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">So if no changes in coupon sizes, will Bill issuance at least shrink? You bet: as the Treasury added, \"seasonal or unexpected variations in borrowing needs over the next quarter is to be met by changes in bill auction sizes and Cash Management Bills (CMBs).\"&nbsp; Additionally, the Treasury will<b>end weekly issuance of 6-week CMBs later this month</b>:</p><p><blockquote>那么，如果息票规模没有变化，票据发行至少会萎缩吗？你打赌：正如财政部补充的那样，“下一季度借贷需求的季节性或意外变化将通过票据拍卖规模和现金管理票据（CMBs）的变化来满足。”此外，财政部将<b>本月晚些时候结束每周发行6周期CMBs</b>：</blockquote></p><p>   \"the amount of net new cash still being raised from coupon issuance will allow Treasury to continue gradual reductions in bills as a percent of Treasury debt outstanding, in a manner consistent with recommendations made by the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) at its November 2020 meeting.&nbsp; Accordingly,  <b>Treasury plans to further modify its regular cadence of CMBs.&nbsp; Treasury anticipates that weekly issuance of the 6-week CMBs will cease after settlement on August 19, whereas weekly issuance of the 17-week CMBs will continue at least through the end of October</b>.  Also of note, now that the US has triggered the debt ceiling extension measures which have an impact on how much cash the Treasury can hold at the current moment ($450BN), the Treasury said that it is unsure how long extraordinary measures put in place due to the debt ceiling will last:</p><p><blockquote>“仍从息票发行中筹集的净新现金金额将使财政部能够继续逐步减少票据占未偿国债的百分比，其方式与财政部借款咨询委员会（TBAC）在其2020年11月会议上提出的建议一致。因此，<b>财政部计划进一步调整CMBs的定期发行节奏。财政部预计，6周期CMBs的每周发行将在8月19日结算后停止，而17周期CMBs的每周发行将至少持续到10月底</b>同样值得注意的是，既然美国已经触发了债务上限延长措施，这将影响财政部目前可以持有多少现金（4500亿美元），财政部表示，不确定因债务上限而采取的非常措施将持续多久：</blockquote></p><p>   As Secretary Yellen recently outlined in a July 23 letter to Congress, the period of time that extraordinary measures may last is subject to considerable uncertainty due to a variety of factors, including the challenges of forecasting the payments and receipts of the U.S. government months into the future, exacerbated by the heightened uncertainty in payments and receipts related to the economic impact of the pandemic.  <b>Given this, Treasury is not able to currently provide a specific estimate of how long extraordinary measures will last.</b>  While it was of secondary importance, the Treasury also revealed the details of next week's auctions a/k/a the quarterly refunding offering, which&nbsp; was in line with expectations. Specifically, the Treasury will offer $126 billion of Treasuries to refund $58.6 billion of Treasury notes and bonds maturing on August 15, 2021.&nbsp;<b>This issuance will raise new cash of approximately $67.4 billion</b>. The securities are:</p><p><blockquote>正如耶伦部长最近在7月23日致国会的一封信中概述的那样，由于多种因素，非常措施可能持续的时间存在相当大的不确定性，包括预测美国政府未来几个月的付款和收入的挑战，与大流行的经济影响相关的付款和收入的不确定性加剧了这种情况。<b>有鉴于此，财政部目前无法提供非常措施将持续多长时间的具体估计。</b>虽然这是次要的，但财政部也透露了下周拍卖的细节，也就是季度退款发行，这符合预期。具体来说，财政部将提供1260亿美元的国债，以偿还2021年8月15日到期的586亿美元国债和债券。<b>本次发行将筹集约674亿美元新现金</b>该等证券为：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>A 3-year note in the amount of $58 billion, as expected</li>  <li>A 10-year note in the amount of $41 billion, as expected</li>  <li>A 30-year bond in the amount of $27 billion, as expected</li> </ul> Going back to the Treasury's coupon shrinkage plans, theMinutes of the latest Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committeerevealed that the committee reviewed a presentation presentation about potential adjustments to coupon auction sizes in the coming years,,,</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>正如预期的那样，金额为580亿美元的3年期票据</li><li>正如预期的那样，金额为410亿美元的10年期票据</li><li>正如预期的那样，金额为270亿美元的30年期债券</li></ul>回到财政部的息票收缩计划，最新的财政部借款咨询委员会会议纪要显示，该委员会审查了一份关于未来几年息票拍卖规模潜在调整的演示文稿，</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e1a37f22f9f748507c3370311dece35\" tg-width=\"1026\" tg-height=\"780\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> ... based on the presenting member’s assessment that the current auction schedule will likely leave Treasury significantly overfunded.</p><p><blockquote>...根据出席会议的成员的评估，目前的拍卖时间表可能会使财政部资金严重过剩。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54a5416fc7b72a56cb803a006a63256f\" tg-width=\"1022\" tg-height=\"782\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">It noted that several significant financing uncertainties were also highlighted by the presenting member that will require a flexible approach within the regular and predictable paradigm.&nbsp; The resulting share of bills outstanding, the impact on the maturity profile, and the relative persistent supply and demand dynamics at each maturity point were then discussed for each issuance size scenario.</p><p><blockquote>它指出，发言的成员还强调了几个重大的融资不确定性，这些不确定性需要在常规和可预测的范式内采取灵活的方法。然后，针对每种发行规模情景，讨论了由此产生的未偿票据份额、对到期日状况的影响以及每个到期日相对持续的供需动态。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The presenting member concluded by recommending that Treasury begin to move towards a scenario with issuance cuts across the nominal curve, but with relatively larger reductions in the 7-year and 20-year tenors, offset by smaller reductions to the 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year tenors.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>发言成员最后建议财政部开始走向名义曲线上的发行量削减情景，但7年期和20年期国债的减少幅度相对较大，被5年期、10年期国债的较小减少所抵消。年和30年期限。</b></blockquote></p><p> The Committee then turned to its financing recommendation for the upcoming quarters.<b>The Committee recommended that Treasury begin to reduce nominal coupon auction sizes at the November 2021 quarterly refunding and attempt to target a bill share of total marketable debt outstanding within the Committee’s past recommendation of 15 to 20 percent</b>.&nbsp; However, the Committee emphasized the current level of fiscal uncertainty and the need to remain flexible if borrowing needs were to change materially.</p><p><blockquote>委员会随后转向未来几个季度的融资建议。<b>委员会建议财政部在2021年11月季度再融资时开始减少名义息票拍卖规模，并尝试将票据占未偿可销售债务总额的比例设定在委员会过去建议的15至20%以内</b>然而，委员会强调，当前的财政不确定性水平，如果借款需求发生重大变化，需要保持灵活性。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a7f025722c8e8f65c79b40a66f977bc\" tg-width=\"1026\" tg-height=\"770\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">After a discussion, the Committee further recommended that Treasury proceed in November with modestly larger reductions in the 7-year note and 20-year bond.&nbsp; Finally, the Committee recommended that Treasury continue to increase TIPS auction sizes at a pace consistent with the increase in gross issuance for CY2021 that was announced at the November 2020 quarterly refunding.&nbsp; The Committee also reaffirmed its support for Treasury to issue a floating rate note indexed to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate.</p><p><blockquote>经过讨论，委员会进一步建议财政部在11月继续适度大幅削减7年期国债和20年期债券。最后，委员会建议财政部继续增加TIPS拍卖规模，其速度与2020年11月季度再融资中宣布的2021年总发行量的增长保持一致。委员会还重申支持财政部发行与担保隔夜融资利率挂钩的浮动利率票据。</blockquote></p><p> Tangentially, and perhaps linked to the recent discussions of tether, TBAC reviewed a presentation on regulatory reform options for the money market mutual fund (MMF) industry, given the stress experienced by certain types of funds during March 2020.&nbsp; The presenting member noted the vulnerabilities that exist for primmoe MMFs, highlighting common themes in several recent episodes of heightened outflows. During these events, the outflows from prime MMFs have tended to result in similarly sized and simultaneous inflows into government MMFs. The presenting member concluded by arguing that optimal reforms to address the vulnerabilities among prime MMFs should balance allowing these funds to offer attractive yields under normal market conditions while ensuring stability during periods of market stress.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于某些类型的基金在2020年3月期间经历的压力，TBAC审查了一份关于货币市场共同基金（MMF）行业监管改革方案的介绍，这可能与泰达币最近的讨论有关。发言成员指出了Primmoe MMF存在的脆弱性，强调了最近几次资金外流加剧的共同主题。在这些事件中，主要货币市场基金的资金外流往往会导致规模相似、同时流入政府货币市场基金。发言成员最后认为，解决主要货币市场基金脆弱性的最佳改革应平衡允许这些基金在正常市场条件下提供有吸引力的收益率，同时确保市场压力时期的稳定性。</blockquote></p><p> As Bloomberg notes, if the Treasury does proceed with a reduction in the November-to-January period,<b>it would be the first in more than five years</b>. Issuance had been climbing for years, thanks to surging federal budget deficits in the wake of former President&nbsp;Donald Trump’s tax cuts and, later, the emergency spending caused by the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>正如彭博社指出的那样，如果财政部确实在11月至1月期间继续削减开支，<b>这将是五年多来的第一次</b>由于前总统唐纳德·特朗普减税后联邦预算赤字激增，以及后来疫情造成的紧急支出，发行量多年来一直在攀升。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Treasury To Start Reducing Bond Auction Sizes As Soon As November<blockquote>财政部最快将于11月开始缩减债券拍卖规模</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTreasury To Start Reducing Bond Auction Sizes As Soon As November<blockquote>财政部最快将于11月开始缩减债券拍卖规模</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-04 21:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Heading into today's quarterly refunding announcement, the bond market was on edge over the (low) possibility widely discussed on sellside desks, that the Treasury could cut trim coupon auction sizes in the next few months to coincide with the Fed's tapering as the Treasury's funding needs have gradually emerged to be less than expected thanks to higher than expected tax revenues. In fact, according to some the drop in yields in recent weeks has been not due to the ongoing monster squeeze but due to expectations that there will be less TSY supply than demand.</p><p><blockquote>在今天的季度再融资公告发布之前，债券市场对卖方广泛讨论的（低）可能性感到紧张，即财政部可能在未来几个月内削减息票拍卖规模，以配合美联储的缩减规模，因为财政部的资金需求由于税收收入高于预期，需求逐渐低于预期。事实上，根据一些人的说法，最近几周收益率下降并不是由于持续的巨大挤压，而是由于预期TSY供应将少于需求。</blockquote></p><p> So when the Treasury released itslatest refunding statement(whose highlights hit about 10 mins early after some newswire broke the embargo), battered TSY bears breathed a sigh of relief because the Treasury said that contrary growing expectations, it \"<b>does not anticipate making any changes to nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes over the next quarter</b>.\" Here is the proposed treasury issuance scheduled for Q3:</p><p><blockquote>因此，当财政部发布最新的退款声明时（在一些新闻专线打破禁运后，其亮点提前约10分钟发布），遭受重创的TSY空头松了一口气，因为财政部表示，与日益增长的预期相反，它“<b>预计下一季度名义息票和FRN拍卖规模不会发生任何变化</b>.”以下是计划于第三季度发行的拟议国债：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38e4d7e4d0f23901ba21254476fb0640\" tg-width=\"674\" tg-height=\"923\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> However, in line with expectations, \"<b>continuing current issuance sizes and patterns may provide more borrowing capacity than is needed to address borrowing needs over the intermediate-to-long term</b>.\" As a result, the \"Treasury will continue to engage with a variety of market participants to better understand the supply and demand dynamics for existing securities,<b>with an expectation of announcing an initial set of auction size reductions as soon as the November refunding announcement</b>\" which is also in line with what most Primary Dealers had expected (among the 24 primary dealers in U.S. government securities, j<i>ust three expected smaller auctions during the August-to-October quarter, with many more seeing an announcement in November).</i>&nbsp; In other words,<b>shortly after the Fed's taper announcement at or just after Jackson Hole, the Treasury will follow up with an issuance cut of its own.</b></p><p><blockquote>不过，符合预期，”<b>继续目前的发行规模和模式可能会提供比满足中长期借款需求所需更多的借款能力</b>因此，“财政部将继续与各种市场参与者接触，以更好地了解现有证券的供需动态，<b>预计在11月退款公告发布后立即宣布初步削减拍卖规模</b>“这也符合大多数一级交易商的预期（在美国政府证券的24家一级交易商中，j<i>ust three预计8月至10月季度将进行规模较小的拍卖，还有更多拍卖将在11月发布公告）。</i>换句话说，<b>在美联储在杰克逊霍尔宣布缩减规模后不久或之后，财政部将跟进自己的减持。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4ea04a7e2abe81b943385a9bdeab027\" tg-width=\"661\" tg-height=\"495\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">So if no changes in coupon sizes, will Bill issuance at least shrink? You bet: as the Treasury added, \"seasonal or unexpected variations in borrowing needs over the next quarter is to be met by changes in bill auction sizes and Cash Management Bills (CMBs).\"&nbsp; Additionally, the Treasury will<b>end weekly issuance of 6-week CMBs later this month</b>:</p><p><blockquote>那么，如果息票规模没有变化，票据发行至少会萎缩吗？你打赌：正如财政部补充的那样，“下一季度借贷需求的季节性或意外变化将通过票据拍卖规模和现金管理票据（CMBs）的变化来满足。”此外，财政部将<b>本月晚些时候结束每周发行6周期CMBs</b>：</blockquote></p><p>   \"the amount of net new cash still being raised from coupon issuance will allow Treasury to continue gradual reductions in bills as a percent of Treasury debt outstanding, in a manner consistent with recommendations made by the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) at its November 2020 meeting.&nbsp; Accordingly,  <b>Treasury plans to further modify its regular cadence of CMBs.&nbsp; Treasury anticipates that weekly issuance of the 6-week CMBs will cease after settlement on August 19, whereas weekly issuance of the 17-week CMBs will continue at least through the end of October</b>.  Also of note, now that the US has triggered the debt ceiling extension measures which have an impact on how much cash the Treasury can hold at the current moment ($450BN), the Treasury said that it is unsure how long extraordinary measures put in place due to the debt ceiling will last:</p><p><blockquote>“仍从息票发行中筹集的净新现金金额将使财政部能够继续逐步减少票据占未偿国债的百分比，其方式与财政部借款咨询委员会（TBAC）在其2020年11月会议上提出的建议一致。因此，<b>财政部计划进一步调整CMBs的定期发行节奏。财政部预计，6周期CMBs的每周发行将在8月19日结算后停止，而17周期CMBs的每周发行将至少持续到10月底</b>同样值得注意的是，既然美国已经触发了债务上限延长措施，这将影响财政部目前可以持有多少现金（4500亿美元），财政部表示，不确定因债务上限而采取的非常措施将持续多久：</blockquote></p><p>   As Secretary Yellen recently outlined in a July 23 letter to Congress, the period of time that extraordinary measures may last is subject to considerable uncertainty due to a variety of factors, including the challenges of forecasting the payments and receipts of the U.S. government months into the future, exacerbated by the heightened uncertainty in payments and receipts related to the economic impact of the pandemic.  <b>Given this, Treasury is not able to currently provide a specific estimate of how long extraordinary measures will last.</b>  While it was of secondary importance, the Treasury also revealed the details of next week's auctions a/k/a the quarterly refunding offering, which&nbsp; was in line with expectations. Specifically, the Treasury will offer $126 billion of Treasuries to refund $58.6 billion of Treasury notes and bonds maturing on August 15, 2021.&nbsp;<b>This issuance will raise new cash of approximately $67.4 billion</b>. The securities are:</p><p><blockquote>正如耶伦部长最近在7月23日致国会的一封信中概述的那样，由于多种因素，非常措施可能持续的时间存在相当大的不确定性，包括预测美国政府未来几个月的付款和收入的挑战，与大流行的经济影响相关的付款和收入的不确定性加剧了这种情况。<b>有鉴于此，财政部目前无法提供非常措施将持续多长时间的具体估计。</b>虽然这是次要的，但财政部也透露了下周拍卖的细节，也就是季度退款发行，这符合预期。具体来说，财政部将提供1260亿美元的国债，以偿还2021年8月15日到期的586亿美元国债和债券。<b>本次发行将筹集约674亿美元新现金</b>该等证券为：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>A 3-year note in the amount of $58 billion, as expected</li>  <li>A 10-year note in the amount of $41 billion, as expected</li>  <li>A 30-year bond in the amount of $27 billion, as expected</li> </ul> Going back to the Treasury's coupon shrinkage plans, theMinutes of the latest Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committeerevealed that the committee reviewed a presentation presentation about potential adjustments to coupon auction sizes in the coming years,,,</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>正如预期的那样，金额为580亿美元的3年期票据</li><li>正如预期的那样，金额为410亿美元的10年期票据</li><li>正如预期的那样，金额为270亿美元的30年期债券</li></ul>回到财政部的息票收缩计划，最新的财政部借款咨询委员会会议纪要显示，该委员会审查了一份关于未来几年息票拍卖规模潜在调整的演示文稿，</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e1a37f22f9f748507c3370311dece35\" tg-width=\"1026\" tg-height=\"780\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> ... based on the presenting member’s assessment that the current auction schedule will likely leave Treasury significantly overfunded.</p><p><blockquote>...根据出席会议的成员的评估，目前的拍卖时间表可能会使财政部资金严重过剩。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54a5416fc7b72a56cb803a006a63256f\" tg-width=\"1022\" tg-height=\"782\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">It noted that several significant financing uncertainties were also highlighted by the presenting member that will require a flexible approach within the regular and predictable paradigm.&nbsp; The resulting share of bills outstanding, the impact on the maturity profile, and the relative persistent supply and demand dynamics at each maturity point were then discussed for each issuance size scenario.</p><p><blockquote>它指出，发言的成员还强调了几个重大的融资不确定性，这些不确定性需要在常规和可预测的范式内采取灵活的方法。然后，针对每种发行规模情景，讨论了由此产生的未偿票据份额、对到期日状况的影响以及每个到期日相对持续的供需动态。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The presenting member concluded by recommending that Treasury begin to move towards a scenario with issuance cuts across the nominal curve, but with relatively larger reductions in the 7-year and 20-year tenors, offset by smaller reductions to the 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year tenors.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>发言成员最后建议财政部开始走向名义曲线上的发行量削减情景，但7年期和20年期国债的减少幅度相对较大，被5年期、10年期国债的较小减少所抵消。年和30年期限。</b></blockquote></p><p> The Committee then turned to its financing recommendation for the upcoming quarters.<b>The Committee recommended that Treasury begin to reduce nominal coupon auction sizes at the November 2021 quarterly refunding and attempt to target a bill share of total marketable debt outstanding within the Committee’s past recommendation of 15 to 20 percent</b>.&nbsp; However, the Committee emphasized the current level of fiscal uncertainty and the need to remain flexible if borrowing needs were to change materially.</p><p><blockquote>委员会随后转向未来几个季度的融资建议。<b>委员会建议财政部在2021年11月季度再融资时开始减少名义息票拍卖规模，并尝试将票据占未偿可销售债务总额的比例设定在委员会过去建议的15至20%以内</b>然而，委员会强调，当前的财政不确定性水平，如果借款需求发生重大变化，需要保持灵活性。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a7f025722c8e8f65c79b40a66f977bc\" tg-width=\"1026\" tg-height=\"770\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">After a discussion, the Committee further recommended that Treasury proceed in November with modestly larger reductions in the 7-year note and 20-year bond.&nbsp; Finally, the Committee recommended that Treasury continue to increase TIPS auction sizes at a pace consistent with the increase in gross issuance for CY2021 that was announced at the November 2020 quarterly refunding.&nbsp; The Committee also reaffirmed its support for Treasury to issue a floating rate note indexed to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate.</p><p><blockquote>经过讨论，委员会进一步建议财政部在11月继续适度大幅削减7年期国债和20年期债券。最后，委员会建议财政部继续增加TIPS拍卖规模，其速度与2020年11月季度再融资中宣布的2021年总发行量的增长保持一致。委员会还重申支持财政部发行与担保隔夜融资利率挂钩的浮动利率票据。</blockquote></p><p> Tangentially, and perhaps linked to the recent discussions of tether, TBAC reviewed a presentation on regulatory reform options for the money market mutual fund (MMF) industry, given the stress experienced by certain types of funds during March 2020.&nbsp; The presenting member noted the vulnerabilities that exist for primmoe MMFs, highlighting common themes in several recent episodes of heightened outflows. During these events, the outflows from prime MMFs have tended to result in similarly sized and simultaneous inflows into government MMFs. The presenting member concluded by arguing that optimal reforms to address the vulnerabilities among prime MMFs should balance allowing these funds to offer attractive yields under normal market conditions while ensuring stability during periods of market stress.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于某些类型的基金在2020年3月期间经历的压力，TBAC审查了一份关于货币市场共同基金（MMF）行业监管改革方案的介绍，这可能与泰达币最近的讨论有关。发言成员指出了Primmoe MMF存在的脆弱性，强调了最近几次资金外流加剧的共同主题。在这些事件中，主要货币市场基金的资金外流往往会导致规模相似、同时流入政府货币市场基金。发言成员最后认为，解决主要货币市场基金脆弱性的最佳改革应平衡允许这些基金在正常市场条件下提供有吸引力的收益率，同时确保市场压力时期的稳定性。</blockquote></p><p> As Bloomberg notes, if the Treasury does proceed with a reduction in the November-to-January period,<b>it would be the first in more than five years</b>. Issuance had been climbing for years, thanks to surging federal budget deficits in the wake of former President&nbsp;Donald Trump’s tax cuts and, later, the emergency spending caused by the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>正如彭博社指出的那样，如果财政部确实在11月至1月期间继续削减开支，<b>这将是五年多来的第一次</b>由于前总统唐纳德·特朗普减税后联邦预算赤字激增，以及后来疫情造成的紧急支出，发行量多年来一直在攀升。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/treasury-start-reducing-bond-auction-sizes-soon-november\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/treasury-start-reducing-bond-auction-sizes-soon-november","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106185106","content_text":"Heading into today's quarterly refunding announcement, the bond market was on edge over the (low) possibility widely discussed on sellside desks, that the Treasury could cut trim coupon auction sizes in the next few months to coincide with the Fed's tapering as the Treasury's funding needs have gradually emerged to be less than expected thanks to higher than expected tax revenues. In fact, according to some the drop in yields in recent weeks has been not due to the ongoing monster squeeze but due to expectations that there will be less TSY supply than demand.\nSo when the Treasury released itslatest refunding statement(whose highlights hit about 10 mins early after some newswire broke the embargo), battered TSY bears breathed a sigh of relief because the Treasury said that contrary growing expectations, it \"does not anticipate making any changes to nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes over the next quarter.\" Here is the proposed treasury issuance scheduled for Q3:\n\nHowever, in line with expectations, \"continuing current issuance sizes and patterns may provide more borrowing capacity than is needed to address borrowing needs over the intermediate-to-long term.\" As a result, the \"Treasury will continue to engage with a variety of market participants to better understand the supply and demand dynamics for existing securities,with an expectation of announcing an initial set of auction size reductions as soon as the November refunding announcement\" which is also in line with what most Primary Dealers had expected (among the 24 primary dealers in U.S. government securities, just three expected smaller auctions during the August-to-October quarter, with many more seeing an announcement in November).  In other words,shortly after the Fed's taper announcement at or just after Jackson Hole, the Treasury will follow up with an issuance cut of its own.\nSo if no changes in coupon sizes, will Bill issuance at least shrink? You bet: as the Treasury added, \"seasonal or unexpected variations in borrowing needs over the next quarter is to be met by changes in bill auction sizes and Cash Management Bills (CMBs).\"  Additionally, the Treasury willend weekly issuance of 6-week CMBs later this month:\n\n \"the amount of net new cash still being raised from coupon issuance will allow Treasury to continue gradual reductions in bills as a percent of Treasury debt outstanding, in a manner consistent with recommendations made by the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) at its November 2020 meeting.  Accordingly,\n Treasury plans to further modify its regular cadence of CMBs.  Treasury anticipates that weekly issuance of the 6-week CMBs will cease after settlement on August 19, whereas weekly issuance of the 17-week CMBs will continue at least through the end of October.\n\nAlso of note, now that the US has triggered the debt ceiling extension measures which have an impact on how much cash the Treasury can hold at the current moment ($450BN), the Treasury said that it is unsure how long extraordinary measures put in place due to the debt ceiling will last:\n\n As Secretary Yellen recently outlined in a July 23 letter to Congress, the period of time that extraordinary measures may last is subject to considerable uncertainty due to a variety of factors, including the challenges of forecasting the payments and receipts of the U.S. government months into the future, exacerbated by the heightened uncertainty in payments and receipts related to the economic impact of the pandemic.\n Given this, Treasury is not able to currently provide a specific estimate of how long extraordinary measures will last.\n\nWhile it was of secondary importance, the Treasury also revealed the details of next week's auctions a/k/a the quarterly refunding offering, which  was in line with expectations. Specifically, the Treasury will offer $126 billion of Treasuries to refund $58.6 billion of Treasury notes and bonds maturing on August 15, 2021. This issuance will raise new cash of approximately $67.4 billion. The securities are:\n\nA 3-year note in the amount of $58 billion, as expected\nA 10-year note in the amount of $41 billion, as expected\nA 30-year bond in the amount of $27 billion, as expected\n\nGoing back to the Treasury's coupon shrinkage plans, theMinutes of the latest Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committeerevealed that the committee reviewed a presentation presentation about potential adjustments to coupon auction sizes in the coming years,,,\n\n... based on the presenting member’s assessment that the current auction schedule will likely leave Treasury significantly overfunded.\nIt noted that several significant financing uncertainties were also highlighted by the presenting member that will require a flexible approach within the regular and predictable paradigm.  The resulting share of bills outstanding, the impact on the maturity profile, and the relative persistent supply and demand dynamics at each maturity point were then discussed for each issuance size scenario.\nThe presenting member concluded by recommending that Treasury begin to move towards a scenario with issuance cuts across the nominal curve, but with relatively larger reductions in the 7-year and 20-year tenors, offset by smaller reductions to the 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year tenors.\nThe Committee then turned to its financing recommendation for the upcoming quarters.The Committee recommended that Treasury begin to reduce nominal coupon auction sizes at the November 2021 quarterly refunding and attempt to target a bill share of total marketable debt outstanding within the Committee’s past recommendation of 15 to 20 percent.  However, the Committee emphasized the current level of fiscal uncertainty and the need to remain flexible if borrowing needs were to change materially.\nAfter a discussion, the Committee further recommended that Treasury proceed in November with modestly larger reductions in the 7-year note and 20-year bond.  Finally, the Committee recommended that Treasury continue to increase TIPS auction sizes at a pace consistent with the increase in gross issuance for CY2021 that was announced at the November 2020 quarterly refunding.  The Committee also reaffirmed its support for Treasury to issue a floating rate note indexed to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate.\nTangentially, and perhaps linked to the recent discussions of tether, TBAC reviewed a presentation on regulatory reform options for the money market mutual fund (MMF) industry, given the stress experienced by certain types of funds during March 2020.  The presenting member noted the vulnerabilities that exist for primmoe MMFs, highlighting common themes in several recent episodes of heightened outflows. During these events, the outflows from prime MMFs have tended to result in similarly sized and simultaneous inflows into government MMFs. The presenting member concluded by arguing that optimal reforms to address the vulnerabilities among prime MMFs should balance allowing these funds to offer attractive yields under normal market conditions while ensuring stability during periods of market stress.\nAs Bloomberg notes, if the Treasury does proceed with a reduction in the November-to-January period,it would be the first in more than five years. Issuance had been climbing for years, thanks to surging federal budget deficits in the wake of former President Donald Trump’s tax cuts and, later, the emergency spending caused by the pandemic.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":619,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":174656711,"gmtCreate":1627096959133,"gmtModify":1633767992913,"author":{"id":"3582928782122574","authorId":"3582928782122574","name":"Hoba","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59c2266c2e959396b467872738c290cc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582928782122574","idStr":"3582928782122574"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Huat","listText":"Huat","text":"Huat","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/174656711","repostId":"2153980423","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":372,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171586301,"gmtCreate":1626750431203,"gmtModify":1633771382605,"author":{"id":"3582928782122574","authorId":"3582928782122574","name":"Hoba","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59c2266c2e959396b467872738c290cc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582928782122574","idStr":"3582928782122574"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Huat","listText":"Huat","text":"Huat","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171586301","repostId":"2152652683","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":548,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":119166569,"gmtCreate":1622528017851,"gmtModify":1634100782553,"author":{"id":"3582928782122574","authorId":"3582928782122574","name":"Hoba","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59c2266c2e959396b467872738c290cc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582928782122574","idStr":"3582928782122574"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Huat","listText":"Huat","text":"Huat","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/119166569","repostId":"1109591824","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":483,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":814588613,"gmtCreate":1630844568932,"gmtModify":1631890487144,"author":{"id":"3582928782122574","authorId":"3582928782122574","name":"Hoba","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59c2266c2e959396b467872738c290cc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582928782122574","idStr":"3582928782122574"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Huat","listText":"Huat","text":"Huat","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/814588613","repostId":"1157895022","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157895022","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630810619,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1157895022?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-05 10:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Beat the market with this quant system that’s very bullish on stocks at record highs<blockquote>利用这个非常看好历史新高股票的量化系统击败市场</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157895022","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Vance Howard’s HCM Tactical Growth Fund moves you in and out of the stock market when prudent to do ","content":"<p>  <b>Vance Howard’s HCM Tactical Growth Fund moves you in and out of the stock market when prudent to do so. So far his team of computer scientists’ strategy has paid off.</b>  Imagine you had a money-making machine to harvest gains in the stock market while you sat back to enjoy life.</p><p><blockquote><b>万斯·霍华德(Vance Howard)的HCM战术增长基金在谨慎的情况下让您进出股市。到目前为止，他的计算机科学家团队的策略已经得到了回报。</b>想象一下，当你坐下来享受生活时，你有一台赚钱机器在股市中收获收益。</blockquote></p><p> That’s everyone’s dream, right? Investor Vance Howard thinks he’s found it.</p><p><blockquote>那是每个人的梦想，对吧？投资者万斯·霍华德认为他已经找到了。</blockquote></p><p> Howard and his small army of computer programmers atHoward Capital Managementin Roswell, Ga., have a quantitative system that posts great returns.</p><p><blockquote>霍华德和他的一小队计算机程序员在佐治亚州罗斯威尔的资本管理公司工作。，有一个量化系统，张贴巨大的回报。</blockquote></p><p> His HCM Tactical Growth Fund&nbsp;HCMGX,+0.35%beats its Russell 1000&nbsp;benchmark index and large-blend fund category by 8.5-10.4 percentage points annualized over the past five years, according to Morningstar. That is no small feat, and not only because it has to overcome a 2.22% fee. Beating the market is simply not easy. His HCM Dividend Sector PlusHCMQX,-0.05%) and HCM Income PlusHCMLX,+0.30%funds post similar outperformance.</p><p><blockquote>根据晨星公司的数据，他的HCM战术增长基金HCMGX,+0.35%在过去五年中的年化增长率比罗素1000基准指数和大型混合基金类别高出8.5-10.4个百分点。这不是一个小壮举，不仅因为它必须克服2.22%的费用。战胜市场并不容易。他的HCM Dividend Sector PlusHCMQX,-0.05%)和HCM Income PlusHCMLX,+0.30%基金也表现类似。</blockquote></p><p> There are drawbacks, which I detail below. (Among them: Potentially long stretches of underperformance and regular tax bills.) But first, what can we learn from this winner?</p><p><blockquote>有缺点，我在下面详述。（其中包括：潜在的长期表现不佳和定期的税单。）但首先，我们能从这位赢家身上学到什么？</blockquote></p><p> So-called quants never share all the details of their proprietary systems, but Howard shares a lot, as you’ll see. And this Texas rancher has a lot of good advice based on “horse sense” — not surprising, given his infectious passion for the markets, and his three decades of experience as a pro.</p><p><blockquote>所谓的量化分析师从不分享他们专有系统的所有细节，但霍华德分享了很多，正如你将看到的。这位德克萨斯州牧场主有很多基于“马的感觉”的好建议——考虑到他对市场富有感染力的热情，以及他三十年的职业经验，这并不奇怪。</blockquote></p><p> Here are five lessons, 12 exchange traded funds (ETFs) and four stocks to consider, from a recent interview with him.</p><p><blockquote>以下是最近对他的采访中的五个教训、12只交易所交易基金(ETF)和四只值得考虑的股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #1: Don’t be emotional</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第一课：不要情绪化</b></blockquote></p><p> It’s no surprise so many people do poorly in the market. Evolution has programmed us to fail. For survival, we’ve learned to run from things that frightens us. And crave more of things that are pleasurable — like sweets or fats to store calories ahead of what might be a long stretch without food. But in the market, acting on the emotions of fear and greed invariably make us do the wrong thing at the wrong time. Sell at the bottom, buy at the top.</p><p><blockquote>难怪这么多人在市场上表现不佳。进化让我们注定要失败。为了生存，我们学会了逃避让我们害怕的事情。渴望更多令人愉快的东西——比如甜食或脂肪，以便在长时间没有食物之前储存卡路里。但在市场中，对恐惧和贪婪的情绪采取行动总是会让我们在错误的时间做错误的事情。底部卖出，顶部买入。</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, we’re programmed to believe being with the crowd brings safety. If you’re a zebra on the Savanna, you are more likely to get picked off by a predator if you go it alone. The problem here is being part of a crowd — and crowd psychology — dumb us down to a purely emotional level. This is why people in crowds do terrible things they would never do on their own. It doesn’t matter how smart you are. When you join a crowd, you lose a lot of IQ points. Base emotions take over.</p><p><blockquote>同样，我们被设定为相信和人群在一起会带来安全。如果你是稀树草原上的斑马，如果你单干，你更有可能被捕食者吃掉。这里的问题是，成为人群的一部分——以及人群心理——让我们变得愚蠢到纯粹的情感层面。这就是为什么人群中的人会做他们自己永远不会做的可怕的事情。你有多聪明并不重要。当你加入一个人群时，你会失去很多智商点。基本情绪占了上风。</blockquote></p><p> To do well in the market, you have to counteract these tendencies. “One of the biggest mistakes individual investors and money managers make is getting emotional,” says Howard. “Let your emotions go.”</p><p><blockquote>要想在市场上做得好，你必须抵制这些倾向。“个人投资者和基金经理犯的最大错误之一就是变得情绪化，”霍华德说。“放下你的情绪。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #2: Have a system and stick to it</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第二课：有一个系统并坚持下去</b></blockquote></p><p> To exorcise emotion, have a system. “And don’t second guess it,” says Howard. “This keeps you from letting the pandemic or Afghanistan scare you out of the market.” He calls his system the HCM-BuyLine. It is basically a momentum and trend-following system — which often works well in the markets.</p><p><blockquote>驱除情绪，要有一个系统。“不要怀疑它，”霍华德说。“这可以防止你被大流行或阿富汗吓出市场。”他评级了他的系统HCM-购买线。它基本上是一个动量和趋势跟踪系统——通常在市场上运行良好。</blockquote></p><p> The HCM-BuyLine basically works like this. First, rather than use the S&amp;P 500SPX,-0.03%or the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.21%,Howard blends several stock indices to create his own index. Then he uses a moving average that tells him whether the market is in an uptrend or downtrend.</p><p><blockquote>HCM-BuyLine基本上是这样工作的。首先，霍华德没有使用标准普尔500SPX（-0.03%）或道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA（-0.21%），而是混合了几个股票指数来创建自己的指数。然后他使用移动平均线来告诉他市场是处于上升趋势还是下降趋势。</blockquote></p><p> When the moving average drops 3.5%, he sells 35%. If it drops 6.5%, he sells another 35%. He rarely goes to 100% cash.</p><p><blockquote>当移动平均线下跌3.5%时，他卖出35%。如果下跌6.5%，他就再卖出35%。他很少100%现金。</blockquote></p><p> “If the BuyLine is positive, we will stay long no matter what,” he says. “We take all the emotion out of the equation by letting the math decide.”</p><p><blockquote>“如果买入线为正，无论如何我们都会长期持有，”他说。“我们通过让数学来决定，将所有情感从等式中剔除。”</blockquote></p><p> Right now, it’s bullish. (More on this below.)</p><p><blockquote>目前，情况看涨。（更多信息见下文。）</blockquote></p><p> Your system also has to tell you when to get back in.</p><p><blockquote>你的系统还必须告诉你什么时候回去。</blockquote></p><p> “That’s where most people screw up,” he says. “They get out of the market, and they don’t know when to get back in.” The HCM-BuyLine gives a buy signal when his custom index trades above its moving average for six consecutive sessions, and then goes on to trade above the high hit during those six days.</p><p><blockquote>“这就是大多数人搞砸的地方，”他说。“他们退出市场，不知道什么时候才能重新进入。”当他的定制指数连续六个交易日高于其移动平均线时，HCM-买入线会发出买入信号，然后继续高于这六天触及的高点。</blockquote></p><p> You don’t need a system that calls exact market tops or bottoms. Instead, the BuyLine keeps Howard out of down markets 85% of the time, and in for 85% of the good times.</p><p><blockquote>你不需要一个评级精确市场顶部或底部的系统。相反，买入线让霍华德在85%的时间里远离低迷的市场，在85%的好时光里远离。</blockquote></p><p> “If we can do that consistently, we have superior returns and a less stressful life,” he says. “Being all in during a bad tape is no fun.”</p><p><blockquote>“如果我们能够始终如一地做到这一点，我们就会获得更高的回报和更少的生活压力，”他说。“在一盘糟糕的磁带中全力以赴一点也不好玩。”</blockquote></p><p> His system is slow to get him out of the market, but quick to get him back in. Not even a 10% correction will necessarily move him out. He’s often buying those pullbacks. Getting back in fast makes sense, because recoveries off bottoms tend to happen fast.</p><p><blockquote>他的系统让他退出市场很慢，但让他回来很快。即使是10%的修正也不一定能让他出局。他经常买入那些回调。快速反弹是有意义的，因为从底部恢复往往会很快。</blockquote></p><p> “The HCM-BuyLine takes all the emotion out of the process,” says Howard.</p><p><blockquote>“HCM-BuyLine消除了整个过程中的所有情绪，”霍华德说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #3: Don’t fight the tape</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第三课：不要和磁带作对</b></blockquote></p><p> This concept is one of the core pieces of wisdom from Marty Zweig’s classic book, “Winning on Wall Street.”</p><p><blockquote>这一概念是马蒂·茨威格经典著作《在华尔街获胜》中的核心智慧之一。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “You have to stay on the right side of market,” agrees Howard. “If you try to trade long in a bad market, it is painful.”</p><p><blockquote>“你必须站在市场的正确一边，”霍华德表示同意。“如果你试图在糟糕的市场中做多，那是很痛苦的。”</blockquote></p><p> In other words, don’t try to be a hero.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，不要试图成为英雄。</blockquote></p><p> “Sometimes, not losing money is where you want to be,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>“有时候，不赔钱才是你想要的，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, don’t turn cautious just because the market hits new highs — like now. You should love new highs, because it is a sign of market strength that may likely endure.</p><p><blockquote>同样，不要仅仅因为市场创下新高就变得谨慎——就像现在这样。你应该喜欢新高，因为这是市场力量的标志，可能会持续下去。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #4: Keep it simple</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第四课：保持简单</b></blockquote></p><p> As you’ll see below, Howard doesn’t use esoteric instruments such as derivatives, swaps or index options. He doesn’t even trade foreign stocks or currencies. This is refreshing for individual investors, because we have a harder time accessing those tools.</p><p><blockquote>正如您将在下面看到的，霍华德不使用衍生品、掉期或指数期权等深奥工具。他甚至不交易外国股票或货币。这对个人投资者来说令人耳目一新，因为我们更难获得这些工具。</blockquote></p><p> “You don’t have to trade crazy stuff,” he says. “You can trade plain-vanilla ETFs and beat everybody out there.”</p><p><blockquote>“你不必交易疯狂的东西，”他说。“你可以交易普通的ETF并击败所有人。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #5: How to trade the current market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第5课：如何交易当前市场</b></blockquote></p><p> First, be long.</p><p><blockquote>首先，做长。</blockquote></p><p> “The HCM-BuyLine is very positive. We are 100% in,” says Howard. “The market is broadening out. It is getting pretty exciting. We do not see it turn around any time soon. We are buying pullbacks.”</p><p><blockquote>“HCM-购买线非常积极。我们100%参与，”霍华德说。“市场正在扩大。它变得相当令人兴奋。我们认为它不会很快好转。我们正在买入回调。”</blockquote></p><p> One bullish signal is all the cash on the sidelines. “If there is any relief in Covid, we may see a big rally. We may end up with a great fall [season].”</p><p><blockquote>一个看涨信号是所有现金都在观望。“如果新冠疫情有所缓解，我们可能会看到大幅反弹。我们可能会以一个伟大的秋季[季节]结束。”</blockquote></p><p> Howard uses momentum indicators to select stocks and ETFs, too. For sectors he favors the following.</p><p><blockquote>霍华德也使用动量指标来选择股票和ETF。对于行业，他倾向于以下几点。</blockquote></p><p> He likes health care, tradable through the iShares US HealthcareIYH,-0.04%and ProShares Ultra Health CareRXL,+0.12%ETFs. He’s turning more bullish on biotech, which he plays via the iShares Biotechnology ETFIBB,-0.11%.</p><p><blockquote>他喜欢医疗保健，可通过iShares US HealthcareIYH(-0.04%)和ProShares Ultra Health CareRXL(+0.12%)ETF进行交易。他变得更加看好生物技术，他通过iShares Biotechnology ETFIBB进行投资，-0.11%。</blockquote></p><p> He likes consumer discretionary tradable through the iShares US Consumer ServicesIYC,-0.30%,and airlines via US Global JetsJETS,-1.17%.He also likes tech exposure via the Invesco QQQ TrustQQQ,+0.31%,iShares US TechnologyIYW,+0.50%and&nbsp;iShares SemiconductorSOXX,+0.75%.</p><p><blockquote>他喜欢通过iShares US Consumer ServicesIYC(-0.30%)进行交易的非必需消费品，以及通过US Global JetsJETS(-1.17%)进行交易的航空公司。他还喜欢通过Invesco QQQ TrustQQQ(+0.31%)、iShares US TechnologyIYW(+0.50%)进行科技投资和iShares半导体SOXX，+0.75%。</blockquote></p><p> He likes small-caps via the Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index FundVBK,+0.07%.And convertible bonds via SPDR Bloomberg Barclays Convertible SecuritiesCWB,+0.64%and iShares Convertible BondICVT,+0.37%.</p><p><blockquote>他喜欢Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index FundVBK，+0.07%的小盘股。以及SPDR Bloomberg Barclays可转换证券CWB，+0.64%和iShares可转换债券ICVT，+0.37%的可转换债券。</blockquote></p><p> As for individual names, he singles out MicrosoftMSFT,-0.00%and AppleAAPL,+0.42%in tech, as well as Amazon.comAMZN,+0.43%and TeslaTSLA,+0.16%.</p><p><blockquote>至于个人名称，他特别提到了科技股中的微软MSFT(-0.00%)和苹果AAPL(+0.42%)，以及亚马逊MAMZN(+0.43%)和特斯拉TSLA(+0.16%)。</blockquote></p><p> Also consider Howard’s two ETFs: The HCM Defender 100 IndexQQH,+0.62%and HCM Defender 500 IndexLGH,+1.32%.</p><p><blockquote>另请考虑Howard的两只ETF：HCM Defender 100 IndexQQH，+0.62%和HCM Defender 500 IndexLGH，+1.32%。</blockquote></p><p> He prefers to add to holdings on 1%-3% dips.</p><p><blockquote>他更喜欢在下跌1%-3%时增持。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A few drawbacks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一些缺点</b></blockquote></p><p> His HCM Tactical Growth fund has a history of posting two-year stretches of underperformance of 1.5% to 8.8%, since it was launched in 2015. The fund then came roaring back to net the very positive five-year outperformance cited above. Investing in his system can require patience.</p><p><blockquote>他的HCM战术增长基金自2015年推出以来，曾连续两年表现不佳，涨幅为1.5%至8.8%。随后，该基金卷土重来，实现了上述非常积极的五年优异表现。投资他的系统需要耐心。</blockquote></p><p> Every manager, including Warren Buffett, can have a stretch of underperformance, says Howard.</p><p><blockquote>霍华德说，每个经理人，包括沃伦·巴菲特，都可能有一段时间表现不佳。</blockquote></p><p> “We are in the odds game,” he says. “Even in the odds game, you can have a bad hand or two thrown at you.”</p><p><blockquote>“我们正处于赔率游戏中，”他说。“即使在赔率游戏中，你也可能会遇到一两手糟糕的牌。”</blockquote></p><p> Another challenge is the high turnover, which is 140% a year for Tactical Growth. This means Uncle Sam takes a big cut in the good years. So if you buy Howard’s funds, you may want to do so in a tax-protected account.</p><p><blockquote>另一个挑战是高流动率，战术增长每年140%。这意味着山姆大叔在好年景中会得到很大的提成。因此，如果您购买霍华德的基金，您可能希望在避税账户中购买。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Beat the market with this quant system that’s very bullish on stocks at record highs<blockquote>利用这个非常看好历史新高股票的量化系统击败市场</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBeat the market with this quant system that’s very bullish on stocks at record highs<blockquote>利用这个非常看好历史新高股票的量化系统击败市场</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-05 10:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>Vance Howard’s HCM Tactical Growth Fund moves you in and out of the stock market when prudent to do so. So far his team of computer scientists’ strategy has paid off.</b>  Imagine you had a money-making machine to harvest gains in the stock market while you sat back to enjoy life.</p><p><blockquote><b>万斯·霍华德(Vance Howard)的HCM战术增长基金在谨慎的情况下让您进出股市。到目前为止，他的计算机科学家团队的策略已经得到了回报。</b>想象一下，当你坐下来享受生活时，你有一台赚钱机器在股市中收获收益。</blockquote></p><p> That’s everyone’s dream, right? Investor Vance Howard thinks he’s found it.</p><p><blockquote>那是每个人的梦想，对吧？投资者万斯·霍华德认为他已经找到了。</blockquote></p><p> Howard and his small army of computer programmers atHoward Capital Managementin Roswell, Ga., have a quantitative system that posts great returns.</p><p><blockquote>霍华德和他的一小队计算机程序员在佐治亚州罗斯威尔的资本管理公司工作。，有一个量化系统，张贴巨大的回报。</blockquote></p><p> His HCM Tactical Growth Fund&nbsp;HCMGX,+0.35%beats its Russell 1000&nbsp;benchmark index and large-blend fund category by 8.5-10.4 percentage points annualized over the past five years, according to Morningstar. That is no small feat, and not only because it has to overcome a 2.22% fee. Beating the market is simply not easy. His HCM Dividend Sector PlusHCMQX,-0.05%) and HCM Income PlusHCMLX,+0.30%funds post similar outperformance.</p><p><blockquote>根据晨星公司的数据，他的HCM战术增长基金HCMGX,+0.35%在过去五年中的年化增长率比罗素1000基准指数和大型混合基金类别高出8.5-10.4个百分点。这不是一个小壮举，不仅因为它必须克服2.22%的费用。战胜市场并不容易。他的HCM Dividend Sector PlusHCMQX,-0.05%)和HCM Income PlusHCMLX,+0.30%基金也表现类似。</blockquote></p><p> There are drawbacks, which I detail below. (Among them: Potentially long stretches of underperformance and regular tax bills.) But first, what can we learn from this winner?</p><p><blockquote>有缺点，我在下面详述。（其中包括：潜在的长期表现不佳和定期的税单。）但首先，我们能从这位赢家身上学到什么？</blockquote></p><p> So-called quants never share all the details of their proprietary systems, but Howard shares a lot, as you’ll see. And this Texas rancher has a lot of good advice based on “horse sense” — not surprising, given his infectious passion for the markets, and his three decades of experience as a pro.</p><p><blockquote>所谓的量化分析师从不分享他们专有系统的所有细节，但霍华德分享了很多，正如你将看到的。这位德克萨斯州牧场主有很多基于“马的感觉”的好建议——考虑到他对市场富有感染力的热情，以及他三十年的职业经验，这并不奇怪。</blockquote></p><p> Here are five lessons, 12 exchange traded funds (ETFs) and four stocks to consider, from a recent interview with him.</p><p><blockquote>以下是最近对他的采访中的五个教训、12只交易所交易基金(ETF)和四只值得考虑的股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #1: Don’t be emotional</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第一课：不要情绪化</b></blockquote></p><p> It’s no surprise so many people do poorly in the market. Evolution has programmed us to fail. For survival, we’ve learned to run from things that frightens us. And crave more of things that are pleasurable — like sweets or fats to store calories ahead of what might be a long stretch without food. But in the market, acting on the emotions of fear and greed invariably make us do the wrong thing at the wrong time. Sell at the bottom, buy at the top.</p><p><blockquote>难怪这么多人在市场上表现不佳。进化让我们注定要失败。为了生存，我们学会了逃避让我们害怕的事情。渴望更多令人愉快的东西——比如甜食或脂肪，以便在长时间没有食物之前储存卡路里。但在市场中，对恐惧和贪婪的情绪采取行动总是会让我们在错误的时间做错误的事情。底部卖出，顶部买入。</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, we’re programmed to believe being with the crowd brings safety. If you’re a zebra on the Savanna, you are more likely to get picked off by a predator if you go it alone. The problem here is being part of a crowd — and crowd psychology — dumb us down to a purely emotional level. This is why people in crowds do terrible things they would never do on their own. It doesn’t matter how smart you are. When you join a crowd, you lose a lot of IQ points. Base emotions take over.</p><p><blockquote>同样，我们被设定为相信和人群在一起会带来安全。如果你是稀树草原上的斑马，如果你单干，你更有可能被捕食者吃掉。这里的问题是，成为人群的一部分——以及人群心理——让我们变得愚蠢到纯粹的情感层面。这就是为什么人群中的人会做他们自己永远不会做的可怕的事情。你有多聪明并不重要。当你加入一个人群时，你会失去很多智商点。基本情绪占了上风。</blockquote></p><p> To do well in the market, you have to counteract these tendencies. “One of the biggest mistakes individual investors and money managers make is getting emotional,” says Howard. “Let your emotions go.”</p><p><blockquote>要想在市场上做得好，你必须抵制这些倾向。“个人投资者和基金经理犯的最大错误之一就是变得情绪化，”霍华德说。“放下你的情绪。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #2: Have a system and stick to it</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第二课：有一个系统并坚持下去</b></blockquote></p><p> To exorcise emotion, have a system. “And don’t second guess it,” says Howard. “This keeps you from letting the pandemic or Afghanistan scare you out of the market.” He calls his system the HCM-BuyLine. It is basically a momentum and trend-following system — which often works well in the markets.</p><p><blockquote>驱除情绪，要有一个系统。“不要怀疑它，”霍华德说。“这可以防止你被大流行或阿富汗吓出市场。”他评级了他的系统HCM-购买线。它基本上是一个动量和趋势跟踪系统——通常在市场上运行良好。</blockquote></p><p> The HCM-BuyLine basically works like this. First, rather than use the S&amp;P 500SPX,-0.03%or the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.21%,Howard blends several stock indices to create his own index. Then he uses a moving average that tells him whether the market is in an uptrend or downtrend.</p><p><blockquote>HCM-BuyLine基本上是这样工作的。首先，霍华德没有使用标准普尔500SPX（-0.03%）或道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA（-0.21%），而是混合了几个股票指数来创建自己的指数。然后他使用移动平均线来告诉他市场是处于上升趋势还是下降趋势。</blockquote></p><p> When the moving average drops 3.5%, he sells 35%. If it drops 6.5%, he sells another 35%. He rarely goes to 100% cash.</p><p><blockquote>当移动平均线下跌3.5%时，他卖出35%。如果下跌6.5%，他就再卖出35%。他很少100%现金。</blockquote></p><p> “If the BuyLine is positive, we will stay long no matter what,” he says. “We take all the emotion out of the equation by letting the math decide.”</p><p><blockquote>“如果买入线为正，无论如何我们都会长期持有，”他说。“我们通过让数学来决定，将所有情感从等式中剔除。”</blockquote></p><p> Right now, it’s bullish. (More on this below.)</p><p><blockquote>目前，情况看涨。（更多信息见下文。）</blockquote></p><p> Your system also has to tell you when to get back in.</p><p><blockquote>你的系统还必须告诉你什么时候回去。</blockquote></p><p> “That’s where most people screw up,” he says. “They get out of the market, and they don’t know when to get back in.” The HCM-BuyLine gives a buy signal when his custom index trades above its moving average for six consecutive sessions, and then goes on to trade above the high hit during those six days.</p><p><blockquote>“这就是大多数人搞砸的地方，”他说。“他们退出市场，不知道什么时候才能重新进入。”当他的定制指数连续六个交易日高于其移动平均线时，HCM-买入线会发出买入信号，然后继续高于这六天触及的高点。</blockquote></p><p> You don’t need a system that calls exact market tops or bottoms. Instead, the BuyLine keeps Howard out of down markets 85% of the time, and in for 85% of the good times.</p><p><blockquote>你不需要一个评级精确市场顶部或底部的系统。相反，买入线让霍华德在85%的时间里远离低迷的市场，在85%的好时光里远离。</blockquote></p><p> “If we can do that consistently, we have superior returns and a less stressful life,” he says. “Being all in during a bad tape is no fun.”</p><p><blockquote>“如果我们能够始终如一地做到这一点，我们就会获得更高的回报和更少的生活压力，”他说。“在一盘糟糕的磁带中全力以赴一点也不好玩。”</blockquote></p><p> His system is slow to get him out of the market, but quick to get him back in. Not even a 10% correction will necessarily move him out. He’s often buying those pullbacks. Getting back in fast makes sense, because recoveries off bottoms tend to happen fast.</p><p><blockquote>他的系统让他退出市场很慢，但让他回来很快。即使是10%的修正也不一定能让他出局。他经常买入那些回调。快速反弹是有意义的，因为从底部恢复往往会很快。</blockquote></p><p> “The HCM-BuyLine takes all the emotion out of the process,” says Howard.</p><p><blockquote>“HCM-BuyLine消除了整个过程中的所有情绪，”霍华德说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #3: Don’t fight the tape</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第三课：不要和磁带作对</b></blockquote></p><p> This concept is one of the core pieces of wisdom from Marty Zweig’s classic book, “Winning on Wall Street.”</p><p><blockquote>这一概念是马蒂·茨威格经典著作《在华尔街获胜》中的核心智慧之一。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “You have to stay on the right side of market,” agrees Howard. “If you try to trade long in a bad market, it is painful.”</p><p><blockquote>“你必须站在市场的正确一边，”霍华德表示同意。“如果你试图在糟糕的市场中做多，那是很痛苦的。”</blockquote></p><p> In other words, don’t try to be a hero.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，不要试图成为英雄。</blockquote></p><p> “Sometimes, not losing money is where you want to be,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>“有时候，不赔钱才是你想要的，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, don’t turn cautious just because the market hits new highs — like now. You should love new highs, because it is a sign of market strength that may likely endure.</p><p><blockquote>同样，不要仅仅因为市场创下新高就变得谨慎——就像现在这样。你应该喜欢新高，因为这是市场力量的标志，可能会持续下去。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #4: Keep it simple</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第四课：保持简单</b></blockquote></p><p> As you’ll see below, Howard doesn’t use esoteric instruments such as derivatives, swaps or index options. He doesn’t even trade foreign stocks or currencies. This is refreshing for individual investors, because we have a harder time accessing those tools.</p><p><blockquote>正如您将在下面看到的，霍华德不使用衍生品、掉期或指数期权等深奥工具。他甚至不交易外国股票或货币。这对个人投资者来说令人耳目一新，因为我们更难获得这些工具。</blockquote></p><p> “You don’t have to trade crazy stuff,” he says. “You can trade plain-vanilla ETFs and beat everybody out there.”</p><p><blockquote>“你不必交易疯狂的东西，”他说。“你可以交易普通的ETF并击败所有人。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #5: How to trade the current market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第5课：如何交易当前市场</b></blockquote></p><p> First, be long.</p><p><blockquote>首先，做长。</blockquote></p><p> “The HCM-BuyLine is very positive. We are 100% in,” says Howard. “The market is broadening out. It is getting pretty exciting. We do not see it turn around any time soon. We are buying pullbacks.”</p><p><blockquote>“HCM-购买线非常积极。我们100%参与，”霍华德说。“市场正在扩大。它变得相当令人兴奋。我们认为它不会很快好转。我们正在买入回调。”</blockquote></p><p> One bullish signal is all the cash on the sidelines. “If there is any relief in Covid, we may see a big rally. We may end up with a great fall [season].”</p><p><blockquote>一个看涨信号是所有现金都在观望。“如果新冠疫情有所缓解，我们可能会看到大幅反弹。我们可能会以一个伟大的秋季[季节]结束。”</blockquote></p><p> Howard uses momentum indicators to select stocks and ETFs, too. For sectors he favors the following.</p><p><blockquote>霍华德也使用动量指标来选择股票和ETF。对于行业，他倾向于以下几点。</blockquote></p><p> He likes health care, tradable through the iShares US HealthcareIYH,-0.04%and ProShares Ultra Health CareRXL,+0.12%ETFs. He’s turning more bullish on biotech, which he plays via the iShares Biotechnology ETFIBB,-0.11%.</p><p><blockquote>他喜欢医疗保健，可通过iShares US HealthcareIYH(-0.04%)和ProShares Ultra Health CareRXL(+0.12%)ETF进行交易。他变得更加看好生物技术，他通过iShares Biotechnology ETFIBB进行投资，-0.11%。</blockquote></p><p> He likes consumer discretionary tradable through the iShares US Consumer ServicesIYC,-0.30%,and airlines via US Global JetsJETS,-1.17%.He also likes tech exposure via the Invesco QQQ TrustQQQ,+0.31%,iShares US TechnologyIYW,+0.50%and&nbsp;iShares SemiconductorSOXX,+0.75%.</p><p><blockquote>他喜欢通过iShares US Consumer ServicesIYC(-0.30%)进行交易的非必需消费品，以及通过US Global JetsJETS(-1.17%)进行交易的航空公司。他还喜欢通过Invesco QQQ TrustQQQ(+0.31%)、iShares US TechnologyIYW(+0.50%)进行科技投资和iShares半导体SOXX，+0.75%。</blockquote></p><p> He likes small-caps via the Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index FundVBK,+0.07%.And convertible bonds via SPDR Bloomberg Barclays Convertible SecuritiesCWB,+0.64%and iShares Convertible BondICVT,+0.37%.</p><p><blockquote>他喜欢Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index FundVBK，+0.07%的小盘股。以及SPDR Bloomberg Barclays可转换证券CWB，+0.64%和iShares可转换债券ICVT，+0.37%的可转换债券。</blockquote></p><p> As for individual names, he singles out MicrosoftMSFT,-0.00%and AppleAAPL,+0.42%in tech, as well as Amazon.comAMZN,+0.43%and TeslaTSLA,+0.16%.</p><p><blockquote>至于个人名称，他特别提到了科技股中的微软MSFT(-0.00%)和苹果AAPL(+0.42%)，以及亚马逊MAMZN(+0.43%)和特斯拉TSLA(+0.16%)。</blockquote></p><p> Also consider Howard’s two ETFs: The HCM Defender 100 IndexQQH,+0.62%and HCM Defender 500 IndexLGH,+1.32%.</p><p><blockquote>另请考虑Howard的两只ETF：HCM Defender 100 IndexQQH，+0.62%和HCM Defender 500 IndexLGH，+1.32%。</blockquote></p><p> He prefers to add to holdings on 1%-3% dips.</p><p><blockquote>他更喜欢在下跌1%-3%时增持。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A few drawbacks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一些缺点</b></blockquote></p><p> His HCM Tactical Growth fund has a history of posting two-year stretches of underperformance of 1.5% to 8.8%, since it was launched in 2015. The fund then came roaring back to net the very positive five-year outperformance cited above. Investing in his system can require patience.</p><p><blockquote>他的HCM战术增长基金自2015年推出以来，曾连续两年表现不佳，涨幅为1.5%至8.8%。随后，该基金卷土重来，实现了上述非常积极的五年优异表现。投资他的系统需要耐心。</blockquote></p><p> Every manager, including Warren Buffett, can have a stretch of underperformance, says Howard.</p><p><blockquote>霍华德说，每个经理人，包括沃伦·巴菲特，都可能有一段时间表现不佳。</blockquote></p><p> “We are in the odds game,” he says. “Even in the odds game, you can have a bad hand or two thrown at you.”</p><p><blockquote>“我们正处于赔率游戏中，”他说。“即使在赔率游戏中，你也可能会遇到一两手糟糕的牌。”</blockquote></p><p> Another challenge is the high turnover, which is 140% a year for Tactical Growth. This means Uncle Sam takes a big cut in the good years. So if you buy Howard’s funds, you may want to do so in a tax-protected account.</p><p><blockquote>另一个挑战是高流动率，战术增长每年140%。这意味着山姆大叔在好年景中会得到很大的提成。因此，如果您购买霍华德的基金，您可能希望在避税账户中购买。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/beat-the-market-with-this-quant-system-thats-very-bullish-on-stocks-at-record-highs-11630761531?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/beat-the-market-with-this-quant-system-thats-very-bullish-on-stocks-at-record-highs-11630761531?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157895022","content_text":"Vance Howard’s HCM Tactical Growth Fund moves you in and out of the stock market when prudent to do so. So far his team of computer scientists’ strategy has paid off.\n\nImagine you had a money-making machine to harvest gains in the stock market while you sat back to enjoy life.\nThat’s everyone’s dream, right? Investor Vance Howard thinks he’s found it.\nHoward and his small army of computer programmers atHoward Capital Managementin Roswell, Ga., have a quantitative system that posts great returns.\nHis HCM Tactical Growth Fund HCMGX,+0.35%beats its Russell 1000 benchmark index and large-blend fund category by 8.5-10.4 percentage points annualized over the past five years, according to Morningstar. That is no small feat, and not only because it has to overcome a 2.22% fee. Beating the market is simply not easy. His HCM Dividend Sector PlusHCMQX,-0.05%) and HCM Income PlusHCMLX,+0.30%funds post similar outperformance.\nThere are drawbacks, which I detail below. (Among them: Potentially long stretches of underperformance and regular tax bills.) But first, what can we learn from this winner?\nSo-called quants never share all the details of their proprietary systems, but Howard shares a lot, as you’ll see. And this Texas rancher has a lot of good advice based on “horse sense” — not surprising, given his infectious passion for the markets, and his three decades of experience as a pro.\nHere are five lessons, 12 exchange traded funds (ETFs) and four stocks to consider, from a recent interview with him.\nLesson #1: Don’t be emotional\nIt’s no surprise so many people do poorly in the market. Evolution has programmed us to fail. For survival, we’ve learned to run from things that frightens us. And crave more of things that are pleasurable — like sweets or fats to store calories ahead of what might be a long stretch without food. But in the market, acting on the emotions of fear and greed invariably make us do the wrong thing at the wrong time. Sell at the bottom, buy at the top.\nLikewise, we’re programmed to believe being with the crowd brings safety. If you’re a zebra on the Savanna, you are more likely to get picked off by a predator if you go it alone. The problem here is being part of a crowd — and crowd psychology — dumb us down to a purely emotional level. This is why people in crowds do terrible things they would never do on their own. It doesn’t matter how smart you are. When you join a crowd, you lose a lot of IQ points. Base emotions take over.\nTo do well in the market, you have to counteract these tendencies. “One of the biggest mistakes individual investors and money managers make is getting emotional,” says Howard. “Let your emotions go.”\nLesson #2: Have a system and stick to it\nTo exorcise emotion, have a system. “And don’t second guess it,” says Howard. “This keeps you from letting the pandemic or Afghanistan scare you out of the market.” He calls his system the HCM-BuyLine. It is basically a momentum and trend-following system — which often works well in the markets.\nThe HCM-BuyLine basically works like this. First, rather than use the S&P 500SPX,-0.03%or the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.21%,Howard blends several stock indices to create his own index. Then he uses a moving average that tells him whether the market is in an uptrend or downtrend.\nWhen the moving average drops 3.5%, he sells 35%. If it drops 6.5%, he sells another 35%. He rarely goes to 100% cash.\n“If the BuyLine is positive, we will stay long no matter what,” he says. “We take all the emotion out of the equation by letting the math decide.”\nRight now, it’s bullish. (More on this below.)\nYour system also has to tell you when to get back in.\n“That’s where most people screw up,” he says. “They get out of the market, and they don’t know when to get back in.” The HCM-BuyLine gives a buy signal when his custom index trades above its moving average for six consecutive sessions, and then goes on to trade above the high hit during those six days.\nYou don’t need a system that calls exact market tops or bottoms. Instead, the BuyLine keeps Howard out of down markets 85% of the time, and in for 85% of the good times.\n“If we can do that consistently, we have superior returns and a less stressful life,” he says. “Being all in during a bad tape is no fun.”\nHis system is slow to get him out of the market, but quick to get him back in. Not even a 10% correction will necessarily move him out. He’s often buying those pullbacks. Getting back in fast makes sense, because recoveries off bottoms tend to happen fast.\n“The HCM-BuyLine takes all the emotion out of the process,” says Howard.\nLesson #3: Don’t fight the tape\nThis concept is one of the core pieces of wisdom from Marty Zweig’s classic book, “Winning on Wall Street.”\n“You have to stay on the right side of market,” agrees Howard. “If you try to trade long in a bad market, it is painful.”\nIn other words, don’t try to be a hero.\n“Sometimes, not losing money is where you want to be,” he says.\nLikewise, don’t turn cautious just because the market hits new highs — like now. You should love new highs, because it is a sign of market strength that may likely endure.\nLesson #4: Keep it simple\nAs you’ll see below, Howard doesn’t use esoteric instruments such as derivatives, swaps or index options. He doesn’t even trade foreign stocks or currencies. This is refreshing for individual investors, because we have a harder time accessing those tools.\n“You don’t have to trade crazy stuff,” he says. “You can trade plain-vanilla ETFs and beat everybody out there.”\nLesson #5: How to trade the current market\nFirst, be long.\n“The HCM-BuyLine is very positive. We are 100% in,” says Howard. “The market is broadening out. It is getting pretty exciting. We do not see it turn around any time soon. We are buying pullbacks.”\nOne bullish signal is all the cash on the sidelines. “If there is any relief in Covid, we may see a big rally. We may end up with a great fall [season].”\nHoward uses momentum indicators to select stocks and ETFs, too. For sectors he favors the following.\nHe likes health care, tradable through the iShares US HealthcareIYH,-0.04%and ProShares Ultra Health CareRXL,+0.12%ETFs. He’s turning more bullish on biotech, which he plays via the iShares Biotechnology ETFIBB,-0.11%.\nHe likes consumer discretionary tradable through the iShares US Consumer ServicesIYC,-0.30%,and airlines via US Global JetsJETS,-1.17%.He also likes tech exposure via the Invesco QQQ TrustQQQ,+0.31%,iShares US TechnologyIYW,+0.50%and iShares SemiconductorSOXX,+0.75%.\nHe likes small-caps via the Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index FundVBK,+0.07%.And convertible bonds via SPDR Bloomberg Barclays Convertible SecuritiesCWB,+0.64%and iShares Convertible BondICVT,+0.37%.\nAs for individual names, he singles out MicrosoftMSFT,-0.00%and AppleAAPL,+0.42%in tech, as well as Amazon.comAMZN,+0.43%and TeslaTSLA,+0.16%.\nAlso consider Howard’s two ETFs: The HCM Defender 100 IndexQQH,+0.62%and HCM Defender 500 IndexLGH,+1.32%.\nHe prefers to add to holdings on 1%-3% dips.\nA few drawbacks\nHis HCM Tactical Growth fund has a history of posting two-year stretches of underperformance of 1.5% to 8.8%, since it was launched in 2015. The fund then came roaring back to net the very positive five-year outperformance cited above. Investing in his system can require patience.\nEvery manager, including Warren Buffett, can have a stretch of underperformance, says Howard.\n“We are in the odds game,” he says. “Even in the odds game, you can have a bad hand or two thrown at you.”\nAnother challenge is the high turnover, which is 140% a year for Tactical Growth. This means Uncle Sam takes a big cut in the good years. So if you buy Howard’s funds, you may want to do so in a tax-protected account.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":725,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":830718093,"gmtCreate":1629098391112,"gmtModify":1633687418010,"author":{"id":"3582928782122574","authorId":"3582928782122574","name":"Hoba","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59c2266c2e959396b467872738c290cc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582928782122574","idStr":"3582928782122574"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Huat","listText":"Huat","text":"Huat","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/830718093","repostId":"2159210604","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":579,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":899234942,"gmtCreate":1628197535786,"gmtModify":1633752807791,"author":{"id":"3582928782122574","authorId":"3582928782122574","name":"Hoba","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59c2266c2e959396b467872738c290cc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582928782122574","idStr":"3582928782122574"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Huat","listText":"Huat","text":"Huat","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/899234942","repostId":"1173170520","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":356,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177851196,"gmtCreate":1627198834815,"gmtModify":1633767207255,"author":{"id":"3582928782122574","authorId":"3582928782122574","name":"Hoba","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59c2266c2e959396b467872738c290cc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582928782122574","idStr":"3582928782122574"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Huat","listText":"Huat","text":"Huat","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177851196","repostId":"2153878189","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":268,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":176050959,"gmtCreate":1626847929771,"gmtModify":1633770430943,"author":{"id":"3582928782122574","authorId":"3582928782122574","name":"Hoba","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59c2266c2e959396b467872738c290cc","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582928782122574","idStr":"3582928782122574"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Huat huat","listText":"Huat huat","text":"Huat huat","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/176050959","repostId":"1109432059","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109432059","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626847295,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1109432059?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-21 14:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Jeff Bezos Reveals Blue Origin Has Sold $100M Worth Of Tickets, 'Demand Is Very, Very High'<blockquote>杰夫·贝索斯透露蓝色起源已售出价值1亿美元的门票，“需求非常非常高”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109432059","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Amazon.com, Inc Chair Jeff Bezos revealed Tuesday that his funded space tourism company Blue Origin ","content":"<p><div> Amazon.com, Inc Chair Jeff Bezos revealed Tuesday that his funded space tourism company Blue Origin has sold $100 million worth of tickets for future flights. What Happened:“The demand is very, very ...</p><p><blockquote><div>亚马逊公司董事长杰夫·贝索斯周二透露，他资助的太空旅游公司蓝色起源已经售出了价值1亿美元的未来航班机票。发生了什么：“需求非常非常...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/22075328/jeff-bezos-reveals-blue-origin-has-sold-100m-worth-of-tickets-demand-is-very-very-high\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/22075328/jeff-bezos-reveals-blue-origin-has-sold-100m-worth-of-tickets-demand-is-very-very-high\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Jeff Bezos Reveals Blue Origin Has Sold $100M Worth Of Tickets, 'Demand Is Very, Very High'<blockquote>杰夫·贝索斯透露蓝色起源已售出价值1亿美元的门票，“需求非常非常高”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJeff Bezos Reveals Blue Origin Has Sold $100M Worth Of Tickets, 'Demand Is Very, Very High'<blockquote>杰夫·贝索斯透露蓝色起源已售出价值1亿美元的门票，“需求非常非常高”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Benzinga</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-21 14:01</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Amazon.com, Inc Chair Jeff Bezos revealed Tuesday that his funded space tourism company Blue Origin has sold $100 million worth of tickets for future flights. What Happened:“The demand is very, very ...</p><p><blockquote><div>亚马逊公司董事长杰夫·贝索斯周二透露，他资助的太空旅游公司蓝色起源已经售出了价值1亿美元的未来航班机票。发生了什么：“需求非常非常...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/22075328/jeff-bezos-reveals-blue-origin-has-sold-100m-worth-of-tickets-demand-is-very-very-high\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/22075328/jeff-bezos-reveals-blue-origin-has-sold-100m-worth-of-tickets-demand-is-very-very-high\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/22075328/jeff-bezos-reveals-blue-origin-has-sold-100m-worth-of-tickets-demand-is-very-very-high\">Benzinga</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPCE":"维珍银河","AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/22075328/jeff-bezos-reveals-blue-origin-has-sold-100m-worth-of-tickets-demand-is-very-very-high","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109432059","content_text":"Amazon.com, Inc Chair Jeff Bezos revealed Tuesday that his funded space tourism company Blue Origin has sold $100 million worth of tickets for future flights.\nWhat Happened:“The demand is very, very high,” Bezos said at the post-flight presentation of Blue Origin.\nOn Tuesday, Bezos and three others including the world’s youngest and oldest humans to have reached space, successfully flewonboard the New Shepard rocket.\nNo disclosures were made by Bezos on how much it would cost for a seat on New Shepard.\nBezos revealed that Blue Origin is due to fly human missions two more times in 2021 but was “not sure yet” on the number of crewed flights in 2022, as per CNBC.\nWhy It Matters:Among the four passengers that flew to space on Tuesday with Blue Origin, only the 18-year-old Oliver Daemen was a paying one.\nAn anonymous person who originally bid $28 billion to fly with Bezos did not do so due to “scheduling conflicts,” as per Blue Origin.\nRival Sir Richard Branson-founded Virgin Galactic Holdings has600 reservationsfrom paying customers who are willing to shell out between $200,000 to $250,000 to go to space.\nAmong the celebrities going to space with Virgin Galactic include Justin Bieber,Leonardo DiCaprio,and Tesla IncTSLA 2.21%and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk.\nWally Funk, the co-passenger of Bezos, who at age 82 became the oldest person to go to space, has alsoplaced a depositto fly with Virgin Galactic.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPCE":0.9,"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":635,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}