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10:47

小作文画饼，ai破都完蛋

闪迪定“超高”长期目标：FY2028-30营收中高双位数增长、毛利率80%，周四股价一度涨近20%

10:46

长期看200年后还是涨

闪迪长期财务指引远超预期，带动港股存储走高

08-13 12:44

快到宴会高潮了，然后是一地鸡毛

黄仁勋5000亿豪赌的关键：芯片能否颠覆科技产品的折旧铁律

06-01

哇

美股夜盘 | 云计算服务商走强，IBM续涨逾13%、慧与科技、ServiceNow涨超10%；ARM续涨逾8%，该股年初至今累涨220%

05-28

$超微电脑(SMCI)$ 太猛了

05-20

芯片股拉指数

港股异动 | 芯片股拉升，华虹半导体、长光辰芯涨超13%

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07:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"闪迪定“超高”长期目标：FY2028-30营收中高双位数增长、毛利率80%，周四股价一度涨近20%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2659160313","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"闪迪预计，2028至2030财年，非GAAP口径下，公司毛利率维持在约80%，营业利润率约75%，调整后自由现金流利润率约50%；承诺在完成业务投资后，剩余现金100%返还股东；长期输入比特量增长目标为中高双位数，但可供销售的比特量将根据优化盈利能力的需要灵活调整；披露八大客户签长协，协议已覆盖2028财年约三分之二比特出货量；2030年企业级闪存TAM料达1.2ZB。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">AI推理需求持续推高存储需求之际，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDK\">闪迪</a>给出了极为激进的长期财务目标。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美东时间23日周四，闪迪在2026年投资者日公布长期财务模型，提出一系列2028财年至2030财年将要达到的财务目标，包括这期间内，公司<strong>营收</strong>将保持<strong>中高双位数增长</strong>。闪迪还澄清市场对比特增长的疑虑，提出<strong>可供销售比特量将根据盈利优化需要调整</strong>，同时承诺，在完成业务投资后，将把100%的剩余现金返还股东。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">消息公布后，市场迅速用股价投票。闪迪（SNDK）周四盘中涨幅一度扩大至<strong>17.6%</strong>；存储板块同步走强。到收盘，闪迪涨近14%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKHY\">SK海力士</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDC\">西部数据</a>涨超7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STX\">希捷科技</a>涨近5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>涨逾4%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aca30000443e5317111c970923d888f9\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"980\" tg-height=\"651\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">FY2028-30目标：毛利率80%、营业利润率75%</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此次投资者日最受市场关注的，无疑是闪迪给出的长期财务模型。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">公司预计，在<strong>2028至2030财年</strong>期间，营收将保持<strong>中高双位数增长</strong>，增速与比特出货量增长相匹配；与此同时，非GAAP口径下，毛利率预计维持在约<strong>80%</strong>，营业利润率约为<strong>75%。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这里需要特别注意财年的时间概念。闪迪的财年并不与自然年重合，公司财年截至最接近6月30日的周五，通常为52周，2026财年、即上一财年于2026年7月3日结束。<strong>2026年7月初已经进入2027财年</strong>，因此此次公布的2028至2030财年区间并非自然年2028年至2030年，而是指<strong>从2027年7月左右开始、连续三个财年的未来区间</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在这一财务模型下，闪迪预计运营费用占营收比例约为<strong>5%</strong>，其他收入及支出不会产生重大影响。即使计入税收、资本开支以及支撑业务增长所需的营运资金，公司仍预计调整后自由现金流利润率能够达到约<strong>50%</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对于此前高度周期性的NAND存储行业而言，这组目标尤其激进。闪迪实际上是在向市场传递一个明确判断：AI驱动的存储需求增长，有望让公司未来数年的营收增长与盈利能力保持在远高于传统存储周期平均水平的位置。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">不盲目追求“比特量”：闪迪将根据盈利能力灵活调节可销售产量</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">而闪迪此次释放的另一个重要信号，是公司并不准备简单地以扩大比特出货量作为增长目标，而是会<strong>主动根据盈利能力调整可供销售的比特量</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此前市场曾关注闪迪FY2027的比特量增长指引：公司预计输入端比特量增长达到中高双位数，而可供销售的输出比特量增长则可能低于这一水平。投资者日上，管理层进一步澄清，这并不意味着公司缺乏扩大产出的能力。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据Lynx Equity Strategies分析师KC Rajkumar对管理层表态的解读，闪迪CEO David Goeckeler明确表示，<strong>长期输入比特量增长目标为中高双位数，但可供销售的比特量将根据优化盈利能力的需要灵活调整</strong>；在某些时期，实际输出比特量增长甚至可能超过中高双位数。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这意味着，闪迪更看重的是“每一比特能赚多少钱”，而不是单纯追求“卖出多少比特”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">尤其是在NAND技术节点切换过程中，公司还会有选择地削减晶圆产出，以避免新技术带来的比特密度提升过快、进而导致市场供应过剩。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Rajkumar指出，闪迪每次NAND技术节点切换平均能够带来约<strong>54%的比特增长</strong>。因此，如果公司完全释放技术升级带来的新增产能，很容易重新制造供过于求的局面。通过在节点切换期间主动减少晶圆产出，闪迪可以控制进入市场的比特量，从而更好地维护价格、利润率和资本效率。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这套思路也解释了为什么闪迪敢于给出约80%的长期毛利率目标：技术进步带来的比特密度提升，不一定全部转化为供给增长，公司可以主动“踩刹车”，将部分技术红利转化为盈利能力。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">“赚到的钱”更多返还股东：超额现金100%回购或分红</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">除了营收和利润率目标，闪迪还给出了非常明确的资本回报承诺。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">闪迪首席财务官（CFO）Luis Visoso表示，在完成支持业务增长所需的投资之后，公司预计将把<strong>100%的超额现金返还给股东</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这意味着，闪迪未来的资本配置框架将围绕三条主线展开：首先投资于支持增长的业务和技术，其次保持强劲的自由现金流创造能力，最后将剩余现金尽可能返还给股东。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">而约<strong>50%的调整后自由现金流利润率</strong>，意味着如果长期财务模型能够兑现，闪迪未来产生现金的能力将非常强，这也是市场愿意给予其更高估值的重要原因之一。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">八大客户签长期协议，已覆盖FY2028约三分之二比特出货量</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">闪迪之所以对上述长期财务模型表现出较强信心，一个重要原因在于公司正在改变传统NAND行业的商业模式。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">公司披露，目前已经与<strong>8家客户</strong>签署新商业模式（NBM）协议。这些协议包括承诺采购量、具有约束力的合同框架、最低财务保障以及结构化定价机制，可以加强客户需求与公司产能规划之间的匹配，并降低传统存储行业周期性波动的影响。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">更重要的是，这些协议覆盖的规模已经相当可观：目前签署的NBM协议约覆盖<strong>FY2027比特出货量的50%</strong>，以及<strong>FY2028比特出货量的约三分之二</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">闪迪认为，这种模式能够带来更加可预测的营收、更高的现金流可见度以及更加持久的盈利增长。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">换句话说，闪迪不仅在押注AI带来的存储需求增长，也在试图通过长期协议把传统NAND业务较强的周期属性部分转化为更加稳定、可预测的收入和现金流。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">AI推理催生更大存储市场，2030年企业级闪存TAM料达1.2ZB</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">闪迪对未来三年高增长的另一大支撑，是AI从训练向推理扩张后，对存储基础设施提出的新需求。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">公司表示，AI推理工作负载正在推动Token使用量快速增长，KV Cache正在重塑数据中心的内存层级。随着AI推理规模扩大，AI数据中心将变得更加依赖存储，闪迪预计，到<strong>2030年企业数据中心闪存的总可用市场（TAM）将达到1.2泽字节（ZB）</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在技术层面，闪迪正在推进基于CMOS直接键合阵列（CBA）的二维扩展战略，以便更加灵活地开发满足不同市场需求的定制产品，同时提高资本效率。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">公司最新的BiCS9 QLC技术就是这一战略的首个案例。该技术将BiCS8阵列与基于BiCS10的CMOS晶圆结合；与此同时，新的BiCS10 QLC节点较BiCS8实现<strong>60%的比特密度提升</strong>。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">HBF押注AI推理，存储板块集体大涨</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">闪迪还在推进面向AI推理的新型高带宽闪存（HBF）技术。公司称，HBF正在成为应对AI推理时代存储需求的重要技术方案，目前相关产业生态也正在形成。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在市场看来，这意味着闪迪的AI存储逻辑已经不再局限于“AI数据中心需要更多SSD”，而是进一步延伸至AI推理架构本身对<strong>更高性能、更低功耗和更高存储密度</strong>的需求。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这一预期也迅速传导至整个存储板块。闪迪自身的涨势更为突出：在公布长期财务目标后，其股价盘中一度涨近18%。今年以来，闪迪股价累计涨幅已经超过530%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">不过，闪迪同时强调，前述长期财务目标属于前瞻性指标，建立在一系列估计和假设基础上，实际结果仍可能受到需求、平均售价、竞争、技术迭代、供应链以及存储行业周期等因素影响。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>闪迪定“超高”长期目标：FY2028-30营收中高双位数增长、毛利率80%，周四股价一度涨近20%</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n闪迪定“超高”长期目标：FY2028-30营收中高双位数增长、毛利率80%，周四股价一度涨近20%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-08-14 07:30</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">AI推理需求持续推高存储需求之际，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDK\">闪迪</a>给出了极为激进的长期财务目标。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美东时间23日周四，闪迪在2026年投资者日公布长期财务模型，提出一系列2028财年至2030财年将要达到的财务目标，包括这期间内，公司<strong>营收</strong>将保持<strong>中高双位数增长</strong>。闪迪还澄清市场对比特增长的疑虑，提出<strong>可供销售比特量将根据盈利优化需要调整</strong>，同时承诺，在完成业务投资后，将把100%的剩余现金返还股东。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">消息公布后，市场迅速用股价投票。闪迪（SNDK）周四盘中涨幅一度扩大至<strong>17.6%</strong>；存储板块同步走强。到收盘，闪迪涨近14%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKHY\">SK海力士</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDC\">西部数据</a>涨超7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STX\">希捷科技</a>涨近5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>涨逾4%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aca30000443e5317111c970923d888f9\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"980\" tg-height=\"651\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">FY2028-30目标：毛利率80%、营业利润率75%</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此次投资者日最受市场关注的，无疑是闪迪给出的长期财务模型。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">公司预计，在<strong>2028至2030财年</strong>期间，营收将保持<strong>中高双位数增长</strong>，增速与比特出货量增长相匹配；与此同时，非GAAP口径下，毛利率预计维持在约<strong>80%</strong>，营业利润率约为<strong>75%。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这里需要特别注意财年的时间概念。闪迪的财年并不与自然年重合，公司财年截至最接近6月30日的周五，通常为52周，2026财年、即上一财年于2026年7月3日结束。<strong>2026年7月初已经进入2027财年</strong>，因此此次公布的2028至2030财年区间并非自然年2028年至2030年，而是指<strong>从2027年7月左右开始、连续三个财年的未来区间</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在这一财务模型下，闪迪预计运营费用占营收比例约为<strong>5%</strong>，其他收入及支出不会产生重大影响。即使计入税收、资本开支以及支撑业务增长所需的营运资金，公司仍预计调整后自由现金流利润率能够达到约<strong>50%</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对于此前高度周期性的NAND存储行业而言，这组目标尤其激进。闪迪实际上是在向市场传递一个明确判断：AI驱动的存储需求增长，有望让公司未来数年的营收增长与盈利能力保持在远高于传统存储周期平均水平的位置。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">不盲目追求“比特量”：闪迪将根据盈利能力灵活调节可销售产量</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">而闪迪此次释放的另一个重要信号，是公司并不准备简单地以扩大比特出货量作为增长目标，而是会<strong>主动根据盈利能力调整可供销售的比特量</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此前市场曾关注闪迪FY2027的比特量增长指引：公司预计输入端比特量增长达到中高双位数，而可供销售的输出比特量增长则可能低于这一水平。投资者日上，管理层进一步澄清，这并不意味着公司缺乏扩大产出的能力。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据Lynx Equity Strategies分析师KC Rajkumar对管理层表态的解读，闪迪CEO David Goeckeler明确表示，<strong>长期输入比特量增长目标为中高双位数，但可供销售的比特量将根据优化盈利能力的需要灵活调整</strong>；在某些时期，实际输出比特量增长甚至可能超过中高双位数。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这意味着，闪迪更看重的是“每一比特能赚多少钱”，而不是单纯追求“卖出多少比特”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">尤其是在NAND技术节点切换过程中，公司还会有选择地削减晶圆产出，以避免新技术带来的比特密度提升过快、进而导致市场供应过剩。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Rajkumar指出，闪迪每次NAND技术节点切换平均能够带来约<strong>54%的比特增长</strong>。因此，如果公司完全释放技术升级带来的新增产能，很容易重新制造供过于求的局面。通过在节点切换期间主动减少晶圆产出，闪迪可以控制进入市场的比特量，从而更好地维护价格、利润率和资本效率。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这套思路也解释了为什么闪迪敢于给出约80%的长期毛利率目标：技术进步带来的比特密度提升，不一定全部转化为供给增长，公司可以主动“踩刹车”，将部分技术红利转化为盈利能力。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">“赚到的钱”更多返还股东：超额现金100%回购或分红</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">除了营收和利润率目标，闪迪还给出了非常明确的资本回报承诺。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">闪迪首席财务官（CFO）Luis Visoso表示，在完成支持业务增长所需的投资之后，公司预计将把<strong>100%的超额现金返还给股东</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这意味着，闪迪未来的资本配置框架将围绕三条主线展开：首先投资于支持增长的业务和技术，其次保持强劲的自由现金流创造能力，最后将剩余现金尽可能返还给股东。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">而约<strong>50%的调整后自由现金流利润率</strong>，意味着如果长期财务模型能够兑现，闪迪未来产生现金的能力将非常强，这也是市场愿意给予其更高估值的重要原因之一。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">八大客户签长期协议，已覆盖FY2028约三分之二比特出货量</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">闪迪之所以对上述长期财务模型表现出较强信心，一个重要原因在于公司正在改变传统NAND行业的商业模式。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">公司披露，目前已经与<strong>8家客户</strong>签署新商业模式（NBM）协议。这些协议包括承诺采购量、具有约束力的合同框架、最低财务保障以及结构化定价机制，可以加强客户需求与公司产能规划之间的匹配，并降低传统存储行业周期性波动的影响。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">更重要的是，这些协议覆盖的规模已经相当可观：目前签署的NBM协议约覆盖<strong>FY2027比特出货量的50%</strong>，以及<strong>FY2028比特出货量的约三分之二</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">闪迪认为，这种模式能够带来更加可预测的营收、更高的现金流可见度以及更加持久的盈利增长。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">换句话说，闪迪不仅在押注AI带来的存储需求增长，也在试图通过长期协议把传统NAND业务较强的周期属性部分转化为更加稳定、可预测的收入和现金流。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">AI推理催生更大存储市场，2030年企业级闪存TAM料达1.2ZB</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">闪迪对未来三年高增长的另一大支撑，是AI从训练向推理扩张后，对存储基础设施提出的新需求。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">公司表示，AI推理工作负载正在推动Token使用量快速增长，KV Cache正在重塑数据中心的内存层级。随着AI推理规模扩大，AI数据中心将变得更加依赖存储，闪迪预计，到<strong>2030年企业数据中心闪存的总可用市场（TAM）将达到1.2泽字节（ZB）</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在技术层面，闪迪正在推进基于CMOS直接键合阵列（CBA）的二维扩展战略，以便更加灵活地开发满足不同市场需求的定制产品，同时提高资本效率。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">公司最新的BiCS9 QLC技术就是这一战略的首个案例。该技术将BiCS8阵列与基于BiCS10的CMOS晶圆结合；与此同时，新的BiCS10 QLC节点较BiCS8实现<strong>60%的比特密度提升</strong>。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">HBF押注AI推理，存储板块集体大涨</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">闪迪还在推进面向AI推理的新型高带宽闪存（HBF）技术。公司称，HBF正在成为应对AI推理时代存储需求的重要技术方案，目前相关产业生态也正在形成。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在市场看来，这意味着闪迪的AI存储逻辑已经不再局限于“AI数据中心需要更多SSD”，而是进一步延伸至AI推理架构本身对<strong>更高性能、更低功耗和更高存储密度</strong>的需求。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这一预期也迅速传导至整个存储板块。闪迪自身的涨势更为突出：在公布长期财务目标后，其股价盘中一度涨近18%。今年以来，闪迪股价累计涨幅已经超过530%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">不过，闪迪同时强调，前述长期财务目标属于前瞻性指标，建立在一系列估计和假设基础上，实际结果仍可能受到需求、平均售价、竞争、技术迭代、供应链以及存储行业周期等因素影响。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4be70e998606c6ffabafd2bbe737fa8","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3779397","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2659160313","content_text":"AI推理需求持续推高存储需求之际，闪迪给出了极为激进的长期财务目标。美东时间23日周四，闪迪在2026年投资者日公布长期财务模型，提出一系列2028财年至2030财年将要达到的财务目标，包括这期间内，公司营收将保持中高双位数增长。闪迪还澄清市场对比特增长的疑虑，提出可供销售比特量将根据盈利优化需要调整，同时承诺，在完成业务投资后，将把100%的剩余现金返还股东。消息公布后，市场迅速用股价投票。闪迪（SNDK）周四盘中涨幅一度扩大至17.6%；存储板块同步走强。到收盘，闪迪涨近14%，SK海力士和西部数据涨超7%，希捷科技涨近5%，美光科技涨逾4%。FY2028-30目标：毛利率80%、营业利润率75%此次投资者日最受市场关注的，无疑是闪迪给出的长期财务模型。公司预计，在2028至2030财年期间，营收将保持中高双位数增长，增速与比特出货量增长相匹配；与此同时，非GAAP口径下，毛利率预计维持在约80%，营业利润率约为75%。这里需要特别注意财年的时间概念。闪迪的财年并不与自然年重合，公司财年截至最接近6月30日的周五，通常为52周，2026财年、即上一财年于2026年7月3日结束。2026年7月初已经进入2027财年，因此此次公布的2028至2030财年区间并非自然年2028年至2030年，而是指从2027年7月左右开始、连续三个财年的未来区间。在这一财务模型下，闪迪预计运营费用占营收比例约为5%，其他收入及支出不会产生重大影响。即使计入税收、资本开支以及支撑业务增长所需的营运资金，公司仍预计调整后自由现金流利润率能够达到约50%。对于此前高度周期性的NAND存储行业而言，这组目标尤其激进。闪迪实际上是在向市场传递一个明确判断：AI驱动的存储需求增长，有望让公司未来数年的营收增长与盈利能力保持在远高于传统存储周期平均水平的位置。不盲目追求“比特量”：闪迪将根据盈利能力灵活调节可销售产量而闪迪此次释放的另一个重要信号，是公司并不准备简单地以扩大比特出货量作为增长目标，而是会主动根据盈利能力调整可供销售的比特量。此前市场曾关注闪迪FY2027的比特量增长指引：公司预计输入端比特量增长达到中高双位数，而可供销售的输出比特量增长则可能低于这一水平。投资者日上，管理层进一步澄清，这并不意味着公司缺乏扩大产出的能力。据Lynx Equity Strategies分析师KC Rajkumar对管理层表态的解读，闪迪CEO David Goeckeler明确表示，长期输入比特量增长目标为中高双位数，但可供销售的比特量将根据优化盈利能力的需要灵活调整；在某些时期，实际输出比特量增长甚至可能超过中高双位数。这意味着，闪迪更看重的是“每一比特能赚多少钱”，而不是单纯追求“卖出多少比特”。尤其是在NAND技术节点切换过程中，公司还会有选择地削减晶圆产出，以避免新技术带来的比特密度提升过快、进而导致市场供应过剩。Rajkumar指出，闪迪每次NAND技术节点切换平均能够带来约54%的比特增长。因此，如果公司完全释放技术升级带来的新增产能，很容易重新制造供过于求的局面。通过在节点切换期间主动减少晶圆产出，闪迪可以控制进入市场的比特量，从而更好地维护价格、利润率和资本效率。这套思路也解释了为什么闪迪敢于给出约80%的长期毛利率目标：技术进步带来的比特密度提升，不一定全部转化为供给增长，公司可以主动“踩刹车”，将部分技术红利转化为盈利能力。“赚到的钱”更多返还股东：超额现金100%回购或分红除了营收和利润率目标，闪迪还给出了非常明确的资本回报承诺。闪迪首席财务官（CFO）Luis Visoso表示，在完成支持业务增长所需的投资之后，公司预计将把100%的超额现金返还给股东。这意味着，闪迪未来的资本配置框架将围绕三条主线展开：首先投资于支持增长的业务和技术，其次保持强劲的自由现金流创造能力，最后将剩余现金尽可能返还给股东。而约50%的调整后自由现金流利润率，意味着如果长期财务模型能够兑现，闪迪未来产生现金的能力将非常强，这也是市场愿意给予其更高估值的重要原因之一。八大客户签长期协议，已覆盖FY2028约三分之二比特出货量闪迪之所以对上述长期财务模型表现出较强信心，一个重要原因在于公司正在改变传统NAND行业的商业模式。公司披露，目前已经与8家客户签署新商业模式（NBM）协议。这些协议包括承诺采购量、具有约束力的合同框架、最低财务保障以及结构化定价机制，可以加强客户需求与公司产能规划之间的匹配，并降低传统存储行业周期性波动的影响。更重要的是，这些协议覆盖的规模已经相当可观：目前签署的NBM协议约覆盖FY2027比特出货量的50%，以及FY2028比特出货量的约三分之二。闪迪认为，这种模式能够带来更加可预测的营收、更高的现金流可见度以及更加持久的盈利增长。换句话说，闪迪不仅在押注AI带来的存储需求增长，也在试图通过长期协议把传统NAND业务较强的周期属性部分转化为更加稳定、可预测的收入和现金流。AI推理催生更大存储市场，2030年企业级闪存TAM料达1.2ZB闪迪对未来三年高增长的另一大支撑，是AI从训练向推理扩张后，对存储基础设施提出的新需求。公司表示，AI推理工作负载正在推动Token使用量快速增长，KV Cache正在重塑数据中心的内存层级。随着AI推理规模扩大，AI数据中心将变得更加依赖存储，闪迪预计，到2030年企业数据中心闪存的总可用市场（TAM）将达到1.2泽字节（ZB）。在技术层面，闪迪正在推进基于CMOS直接键合阵列（CBA）的二维扩展战略，以便更加灵活地开发满足不同市场需求的定制产品，同时提高资本效率。公司最新的BiCS9 QLC技术就是这一战略的首个案例。该技术将BiCS8阵列与基于BiCS10的CMOS晶圆结合；与此同时，新的BiCS10 QLC节点较BiCS8实现60%的比特密度提升。HBF押注AI推理，存储板块集体大涨闪迪还在推进面向AI推理的新型高带宽闪存（HBF）技术。公司称，HBF正在成为应对AI推理时代存储需求的重要技术方案，目前相关产业生态也正在形成。在市场看来，这意味着闪迪的AI存储逻辑已经不再局限于“AI数据中心需要更多SSD”，而是进一步延伸至AI推理架构本身对更高性能、更低功耗和更高存储密度的需求。这一预期也迅速传导至整个存储板块。闪迪自身的涨势更为突出：在公布长期财务目标后，其股价盘中一度涨近18%。今年以来，闪迪股价累计涨幅已经超过530%。不过，闪迪同时强调，前述长期财务目标属于前瞻性指标，建立在一系列估计和假设基础上，实际结果仍可能受到需求、平均售价、竞争、技术迭代、供应链以及存储行业周期等因素影响。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PTF":0.6,"QQQG":0.6,"COWG":0.6,"TMSL":0.6,"SNDG":0.6,"SNDC":0.6,"FSMD":0.6,"SNDQ":0.6,"SNDU":0.6,"SNXX":0.6,"SCHA":0.6,"SCHM":0.6,"FCUS":0.6,"OPTZ":0.6,"DISK":0.6,"SNDK":2.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":596612838232888,"gmtCreate":1786675586094,"gmtModify":1786675587900,"author":{"id":"3582775585343989","authorId":"3582775585343989","name":"多云轩","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582775585343989","idStr":"3582775585343989"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"长期看200年后还是涨","listText":"长期看200年后还是涨","text":"长期看200年后还是涨","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/596612838232888","repostId":"2659194115","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2659194115","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1786674243,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2659194115?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-08-14 10:24","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"闪迪长期财务指引远超预期，带动港股存储走高","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2659194115","media":"智通财经","summary":"消息面上，隔夜存储巨头$闪迪$大涨超13%，并带动美股存储概念大涨。闪迪在投资者日给出的长期财务目标远超预期，令市场开始重新审视过去对NAND的周期定价逻辑。闪迪预计，在2028至2030财年期间，营收将保持中高双位数增长；非GAAP口径下，毛利率预计维持在约80%，营业利润率约为75%。分析认为，公司实则是在传递一个明确信号：AI驱动的存储需求增长，有望令其未来数年的营收增速与盈利能力中枢显著高于传统存储周期平均水平。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">8月14日，存储概念涨幅居前，截至发稿， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/07709\">南方两倍做多海力士</a>涨10.18%，报37港元；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/07747\">南方两倍做多三星电子</a>(07747)涨4.05%，报82.8港元；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603986\">兆易创新</a>(03986)涨2.2%，报512港元；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688008\">澜起科技</a>(06809)涨2.23%，报293.2港元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">消息面上，隔夜存储巨头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDK\">闪迪</a>大涨超13%，并带动美股存储概念大涨。闪迪在投资者日给出的长期财务目标远超预期，令市场开始重新审视过去对NAND的周期定价逻辑。闪迪预计，在2028至2030财年期间，营收将保持中高双位数增长；非GAAP口径下，毛利率预计维持在约80%，营业利润率约为75%。分析认为，公司实则是在传递一个明确信号：AI驱动的存储需求增长，有望令其未来数年的营收增速与盈利能力中枢显著高于传统存储周期平均水平。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">另据报道，SK海力士董事长崔泰源表示，明年可能将成为近几年最严重的内存短缺年。随着AI服务器需求持续爆发，HBM高带宽存储供不应求，不少科技巨头甚至提前赶到韩国抢签长期协议。面对蜂拥而至的订单，海力士坦言产能有限，即使全力扩产，也难以满足所有客户需求。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>闪迪长期财务指引远超预期，带动港股存储走高</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n闪迪长期财务指引远超预期，带动港股存储走高\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-08-14 10:24 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1479862.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>8月14日，存储概念涨幅居前，截至发稿， 南方两倍做多海力士涨10.18%，报37港元；南方两倍做多三星电子(07747)涨4.05%，报82.8港元；兆易创新(03986)涨2.2%，报512港元；澜起科技(06809)涨2.23%，报293.2港元。消息面上，隔夜存储巨头闪迪大涨超13%，并带动美股存储概念大涨。闪迪在投资者日给出的长期财务目标远超预期，令市场开始重新审视过去对NAND的周期...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1479862.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03e38a3a3c63bd5a9d8d8ca2d384d1c5","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1479862.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2659194115","content_text":"8月14日，存储概念涨幅居前，截至发稿， 南方两倍做多海力士涨10.18%，报37港元；南方两倍做多三星电子(07747)涨4.05%，报82.8港元；兆易创新(03986)涨2.2%，报512港元；澜起科技(06809)涨2.23%，报293.2港元。消息面上，隔夜存储巨头闪迪大涨超13%，并带动美股存储概念大涨。闪迪在投资者日给出的长期财务目标远超预期，令市场开始重新审视过去对NAND的周期定价逻辑。闪迪预计，在2028至2030财年期间，营收将保持中高双位数增长；非GAAP口径下，毛利率预计维持在约80%，营业利润率约为75%。分析认为，公司实则是在传递一个明确信号：AI驱动的存储需求增长，有望令其未来数年的营收增速与盈利能力中枢显著高于传统存储周期平均水平。另据报道，SK海力士董事长崔泰源表示，明年可能将成为近几年最严重的内存短缺年。随着AI服务器需求持续爆发，HBM高带宽存储供不应求，不少科技巨头甚至提前赶到韩国抢签长期协议。面对蜂拥而至的订单，海力士坦言产能有限，即使全力扩产，也难以满足所有客户需求。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"603986":1.93,"688008":1.92,"PTF":0.6,"QQQG":0.6,"SKHA":0.6,"SKUU":0.6,"COWG":0.6,"TMSL":0.6,"SNDG":0.6,"03986":1.93,"SKHZ":0.6,"SKDD":0.6,"SNDC":0.6,"FSMD":0.6,"SNDQ":0.6,"06809":1.92,"SKHX":0.6,"SNDU":0.6,"SNXX":0.6,"SCHA":0.6,"07709":2,"SCHM":0.6,"FCUS":0.6,"HYNX":0.6,"OPTZ":0.6,"07747":1.95,"SKHU":0.6,"SK":0.6,"DISK":0.6,"SNDK":1.9,"SKHY":1.97,"CNAV":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":14,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":596287918818120,"gmtCreate":1786596262206,"gmtModify":1786596264345,"author":{"id":"3582775585343989","authorId":"3582775585343989","name":"多云轩","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582775585343989","idStr":"3582775585343989"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"快到宴会高潮了，然后是一地鸡毛","listText":"快到宴会高潮了，然后是一地鸡毛","text":"快到宴会高潮了，然后是一地鸡毛","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/596287918818120","repostId":"2659817701","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2659817701","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1786589457,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2659817701?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-08-13 10:50","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"黄仁勋5000亿豪赌的关键：芯片能否颠覆科技产品的折旧铁律","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2659817701","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"这场豪赌是将AI芯片租赁债权证券化，打造全新金融资产。核心逻辑是受AI热潮驱动的芯片需求将使芯片价格在更长时间内维持高位。黄仁勋以A100芯片超预期保值为据，并承诺25%残值担保。根本性风险在于：芯片技术迭代快、需求不确定，能否打破科技产品快速折旧的铁律。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>正联手华尔街，押注一个颠覆性命题：<strong>AI芯片能否打破科技产品快速贬值的金融铁律。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达本周宣布联合Apollo、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BX\">黑石</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">贝莱德</a>旗下GIP、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BN\">Brookfield</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>及KKR等华尔街巨头，以联合体形式为AI基础设施项目筹集高达5000亿美元资金，用于AI芯片采购、电力生产及数据中心建设，<strong>金融巨头将为科技企业提供半导体租赁融资。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">8月13日，据英国《金融时报》消息，参与交易的金融高管透露，这一计划的核心逻辑在于：<strong>受AI热潮驱动的芯片需求将使芯片价格在更长时间内维持高位，远超此前多数分析师的预期。</strong>英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋表示，这笔交易将创造一种以芯片为底层资产的全新资产类别，并向规模达22万亿美元的私人资本行业敞开大门。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">然而，这一宏大构想也面临根本性风险：<strong>金融机构能否准确判断英伟达芯片的需求持久性与长期价值，仍是未知数</strong>。与租赁汽车或商用飞机不同，芯片技术迭代迅速、需求波动剧烈，其长期价值存在高度不确定性。<strong>这场5000亿美元的豪赌，本质上是一场关于AI算力需求能否持续、芯片能否成为可靠金融资产的历史性押注。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">交易结构：私人资本入场，英伟达转移表外压力</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这笔交易的核心架构，是将芯片租赁债权证券化，并出售给保险公司等债务买家。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据英国《金融时报》报道，Apollo、KKR、Brookfield等私人资本机构计划将GPU租赁合同打包成证券，利用其管理的保险资产池撬动大规模资金。部分机构考虑设立专项融资公司，并参照私募股权收购中常用的担保贷款凭证（CLO）结构，将芯片资产分层切割，供不同风险偏好的投资者选择。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>&#34;你可以像CLO一样，按不同风险层级为GPU融资，&#34;</strong>一位参与交易的高管表示，但也有人对此持保留态度，认为&#34;每家机构的融资方式都会有所不同&#34;。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对英伟达而言，<strong>这一安排同样具有重要的财务意义。</strong>美银研究分析师Vivek Arya本周指出，华尔街<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FISI\">金融机构</a>的介入，意味着英伟达可以逐步退出&#34;供应商融资&#34;模式——即此前由英伟达直接为客户提供担保、协助其在资本市场融资的做法。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>&#34;负担由财团承担，而非英伟达的资产负债表，&#34;Arya表示，这对英伟达而言是明显利好。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">核心争议：芯片能否打破科技折旧铁律</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这笔交易最大的不确定性，<strong>在于芯片资产的长期价值是否足以支撑金融化运作。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">传统金融逻辑对科技资产的态度历来审慎。目前，针对芯片租赁支持的债务，多数贷款方要求在三至五年内全额还清，其假设前提是：<strong>底层资产在此之后价值将趋近于零。与租赁汽车或商用飞机不同，后者在客户违约时存在成熟的二级市场，而芯片一旦技术过时，几乎没有可靠的买家接盘。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Silicon Valley-based Creative Strategies技术分析师Ben Bajarin直言风险所在：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">&#34;整个方案的前提是持续不断的投资。存在过度建设的风险，需求可能放缓，模型可能改进，不再需要那么多算力。&#34;</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此外，芯片买家或租赁方还需同步建设数据中心，这意味着预期收入流将大幅滞后于支出计划，进一步加剧了现金流层面的压力。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达的反驳：旧芯片仍在创造价值</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">面对质疑，黄仁勋以实际数据为自己的逻辑背书。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">华尔街见闻文章写道，黄仁勋本周一在社交平台X上发文称，英伟达近期芯片的租赁定价已有所上涨，甚至其六年前推出的A100芯片至今仍在使用，使用寿命超出最初预期。他此前也多次强调，即便是较旧的H100芯片，由于算力需求的爆发式增长，其保值能力也远超市场预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达的策略不止于此。该公司通过持续更新其软件平台Cuda，主动延长芯片的使用寿命。Cuda平台是英伟达在AI处理领域保持主导地位的核心，它使客户能够将原本为图形设计的GPU用于加速AI应用。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Bajarin认为，<strong>旺盛的全品类芯片需求在中期内有望为英伟达的方案提供支撑，而长期成功则取决于英伟达能否持续降低产品的总拥有成本。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在风险分担机制上，英伟达也作出了实质性承诺：保证芯片在租赁期内至少保留25%的残值，由这家市值5.3万亿美元的芯片巨头承担初始损失。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据英国《金融时报》报道，一位参与5000亿美元交易的高管表示，&#34;<strong>GPU具有内在价值。英伟达在GPU租赁单价上有长达十年的历史记录</strong>&#34;，并将英伟达的担保定性为未来融资中&#34;第一道损失保护&#34;，即公司将吸收超出预期的早期价值损失。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>尽管风险犹存，华尔街的热情已然点燃。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">黑石的Jon Gray和贝莱德的Larry Fink均公开表示，旗下机构有意部署资本，以把握新建数据中心的庞大需求——这些数据中心将用于训练和运行最新的AI模型。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报道指出，另一位与英伟达合作的高管预测，GPU租赁将推动定价标准化，并为AI企业创造规模效益。他表示，随<strong>着&#34;人们逐渐摸清门道&#34;，公开债务市场的投资者最终也将进入这一领域，使该资产类别的流动性和可交易性得到提升。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">分析人士认为，这一进程的关键，在于市场能否就芯片的长期价值形成共识。<strong>如果英伟达的25%残值担保经受住市场检验，芯片租赁证券化或将成为继数据中心基础设施债务之后，AI投资浪潮催生的又一主流资产类别。但若AI需求出现降温、算力需求增速放缓，这场由黄仁勋主导的5000亿美元豪赌，将面临一次严峻的压力测试。</strong></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>黄仁勋5000亿豪赌的关键：芯片能否颠覆科技产品的折旧铁律</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n黄仁勋5000亿豪赌的关键：芯片能否颠覆科技产品的折旧铁律\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-08-13 10:50</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>正联手华尔街，押注一个颠覆性命题：<strong>AI芯片能否打破科技产品快速贬值的金融铁律。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达本周宣布联合Apollo、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BX\">黑石</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">贝莱德</a>旗下GIP、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BN\">Brookfield</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>及KKR等华尔街巨头，以联合体形式为AI基础设施项目筹集高达5000亿美元资金，用于AI芯片采购、电力生产及数据中心建设，<strong>金融巨头将为科技企业提供半导体租赁融资。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">8月13日，据英国《金融时报》消息，参与交易的金融高管透露，这一计划的核心逻辑在于：<strong>受AI热潮驱动的芯片需求将使芯片价格在更长时间内维持高位，远超此前多数分析师的预期。</strong>英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋表示，这笔交易将创造一种以芯片为底层资产的全新资产类别，并向规模达22万亿美元的私人资本行业敞开大门。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">然而，这一宏大构想也面临根本性风险：<strong>金融机构能否准确判断英伟达芯片的需求持久性与长期价值，仍是未知数</strong>。与租赁汽车或商用飞机不同，芯片技术迭代迅速、需求波动剧烈，其长期价值存在高度不确定性。<strong>这场5000亿美元的豪赌，本质上是一场关于AI算力需求能否持续、芯片能否成为可靠金融资产的历史性押注。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">交易结构：私人资本入场，英伟达转移表外压力</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这笔交易的核心架构，是将芯片租赁债权证券化，并出售给保险公司等债务买家。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据英国《金融时报》报道，Apollo、KKR、Brookfield等私人资本机构计划将GPU租赁合同打包成证券，利用其管理的保险资产池撬动大规模资金。部分机构考虑设立专项融资公司，并参照私募股权收购中常用的担保贷款凭证（CLO）结构，将芯片资产分层切割，供不同风险偏好的投资者选择。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>&#34;你可以像CLO一样，按不同风险层级为GPU融资，&#34;</strong>一位参与交易的高管表示，但也有人对此持保留态度，认为&#34;每家机构的融资方式都会有所不同&#34;。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对英伟达而言，<strong>这一安排同样具有重要的财务意义。</strong>美银研究分析师Vivek Arya本周指出，华尔街<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FISI\">金融机构</a>的介入，意味着英伟达可以逐步退出&#34;供应商融资&#34;模式——即此前由英伟达直接为客户提供担保、协助其在资本市场融资的做法。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>&#34;负担由财团承担，而非英伟达的资产负债表，&#34;Arya表示，这对英伟达而言是明显利好。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">核心争议：芯片能否打破科技折旧铁律</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这笔交易最大的不确定性，<strong>在于芯片资产的长期价值是否足以支撑金融化运作。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">传统金融逻辑对科技资产的态度历来审慎。目前，针对芯片租赁支持的债务，多数贷款方要求在三至五年内全额还清，其假设前提是：<strong>底层资产在此之后价值将趋近于零。与租赁汽车或商用飞机不同，后者在客户违约时存在成熟的二级市场，而芯片一旦技术过时，几乎没有可靠的买家接盘。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Silicon Valley-based Creative Strategies技术分析师Ben Bajarin直言风险所在：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">&#34;整个方案的前提是持续不断的投资。存在过度建设的风险，需求可能放缓，模型可能改进，不再需要那么多算力。&#34;</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此外，芯片买家或租赁方还需同步建设数据中心，这意味着预期收入流将大幅滞后于支出计划，进一步加剧了现金流层面的压力。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达的反驳：旧芯片仍在创造价值</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">面对质疑，黄仁勋以实际数据为自己的逻辑背书。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">华尔街见闻文章写道，黄仁勋本周一在社交平台X上发文称，英伟达近期芯片的租赁定价已有所上涨，甚至其六年前推出的A100芯片至今仍在使用，使用寿命超出最初预期。他此前也多次强调，即便是较旧的H100芯片，由于算力需求的爆发式增长，其保值能力也远超市场预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达的策略不止于此。该公司通过持续更新其软件平台Cuda，主动延长芯片的使用寿命。Cuda平台是英伟达在AI处理领域保持主导地位的核心，它使客户能够将原本为图形设计的GPU用于加速AI应用。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Bajarin认为，<strong>旺盛的全品类芯片需求在中期内有望为英伟达的方案提供支撑，而长期成功则取决于英伟达能否持续降低产品的总拥有成本。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在风险分担机制上，英伟达也作出了实质性承诺：保证芯片在租赁期内至少保留25%的残值，由这家市值5.3万亿美元的芯片巨头承担初始损失。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据英国《金融时报》报道，一位参与5000亿美元交易的高管表示，&#34;<strong>GPU具有内在价值。英伟达在GPU租赁单价上有长达十年的历史记录</strong>&#34;，并将英伟达的担保定性为未来融资中&#34;第一道损失保护&#34;，即公司将吸收超出预期的早期价值损失。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>尽管风险犹存，华尔街的热情已然点燃。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">黑石的Jon Gray和贝莱德的Larry Fink均公开表示，旗下机构有意部署资本，以把握新建数据中心的庞大需求——这些数据中心将用于训练和运行最新的AI模型。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报道指出，另一位与英伟达合作的高管预测，GPU租赁将推动定价标准化，并为AI企业创造规模效益。他表示，随<strong>着&#34;人们逐渐摸清门道&#34;，公开债务市场的投资者最终也将进入这一领域，使该资产类别的流动性和可交易性得到提升。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">分析人士认为，这一进程的关键，在于市场能否就芯片的长期价值形成共识。<strong>如果英伟达的25%残值担保经受住市场检验，芯片租赁证券化或将成为继数据中心基础设施债务之后，AI投资浪潮催生的又一主流资产类别。但若AI需求出现降温、算力需求增速放缓，这场由黄仁勋主导的5000亿美元豪赌，将面临一次严峻的压力测试。</strong></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9c5631fb0269dc70e8608fa4fd976cf","relate_stocks":{"LU0128525929.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0957808578.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"ZU\" (USD) 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ACC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3779327","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2659817701","content_text":"英伟达正联手华尔街，押注一个颠覆性命题：AI芯片能否打破科技产品快速贬值的金融铁律。英伟达本周宣布联合Apollo、黑石、贝莱德旗下GIP、Brookfield、高盛及KKR等华尔街巨头，以联合体形式为AI基础设施项目筹集高达5000亿美元资金，用于AI芯片采购、电力生产及数据中心建设，金融巨头将为科技企业提供半导体租赁融资。8月13日，据英国《金融时报》消息，参与交易的金融高管透露，这一计划的核心逻辑在于：受AI热潮驱动的芯片需求将使芯片价格在更长时间内维持高位，远超此前多数分析师的预期。英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋表示，这笔交易将创造一种以芯片为底层资产的全新资产类别，并向规模达22万亿美元的私人资本行业敞开大门。然而，这一宏大构想也面临根本性风险：金融机构能否准确判断英伟达芯片的需求持久性与长期价值，仍是未知数。与租赁汽车或商用飞机不同，芯片技术迭代迅速、需求波动剧烈，其长期价值存在高度不确定性。这场5000亿美元的豪赌，本质上是一场关于AI算力需求能否持续、芯片能否成为可靠金融资产的历史性押注。交易结构：私人资本入场，英伟达转移表外压力这笔交易的核心架构，是将芯片租赁债权证券化，并出售给保险公司等债务买家。据英国《金融时报》报道，Apollo、KKR、Brookfield等私人资本机构计划将GPU租赁合同打包成证券，利用其管理的保险资产池撬动大规模资金。部分机构考虑设立专项融资公司，并参照私募股权收购中常用的担保贷款凭证（CLO）结构，将芯片资产分层切割，供不同风险偏好的投资者选择。\"你可以像CLO一样，按不同风险层级为GPU融资，\"一位参与交易的高管表示，但也有人对此持保留态度，认为\"每家机构的融资方式都会有所不同\"。对英伟达而言，这一安排同样具有重要的财务意义。美银研究分析师Vivek Arya本周指出，华尔街金融机构的介入，意味着英伟达可以逐步退出\"供应商融资\"模式——即此前由英伟达直接为客户提供担保、协助其在资本市场融资的做法。\"负担由财团承担，而非英伟达的资产负债表，\"Arya表示，这对英伟达而言是明显利好。核心争议：芯片能否打破科技折旧铁律这笔交易最大的不确定性，在于芯片资产的长期价值是否足以支撑金融化运作。传统金融逻辑对科技资产的态度历来审慎。目前，针对芯片租赁支持的债务，多数贷款方要求在三至五年内全额还清，其假设前提是：底层资产在此之后价值将趋近于零。与租赁汽车或商用飞机不同，后者在客户违约时存在成熟的二级市场，而芯片一旦技术过时，几乎没有可靠的买家接盘。Silicon Valley-based Creative Strategies技术分析师Ben Bajarin直言风险所在：\"整个方案的前提是持续不断的投资。存在过度建设的风险，需求可能放缓，模型可能改进，不再需要那么多算力。\"此外，芯片买家或租赁方还需同步建设数据中心，这意味着预期收入流将大幅滞后于支出计划，进一步加剧了现金流层面的压力。英伟达的反驳：旧芯片仍在创造价值面对质疑，黄仁勋以实际数据为自己的逻辑背书。华尔街见闻文章写道，黄仁勋本周一在社交平台X上发文称，英伟达近期芯片的租赁定价已有所上涨，甚至其六年前推出的A100芯片至今仍在使用，使用寿命超出最初预期。他此前也多次强调，即便是较旧的H100芯片，由于算力需求的爆发式增长，其保值能力也远超市场预期。英伟达的策略不止于此。该公司通过持续更新其软件平台Cuda，主动延长芯片的使用寿命。Cuda平台是英伟达在AI处理领域保持主导地位的核心，它使客户能够将原本为图形设计的GPU用于加速AI应用。Bajarin认为，旺盛的全品类芯片需求在中期内有望为英伟达的方案提供支撑，而长期成功则取决于英伟达能否持续降低产品的总拥有成本。在风险分担机制上，英伟达也作出了实质性承诺：保证芯片在租赁期内至少保留25%的残值，由这家市值5.3万亿美元的芯片巨头承担初始损失。据英国《金融时报》报道，一位参与5000亿美元交易的高管表示，\"GPU具有内在价值。英伟达在GPU租赁单价上有长达十年的历史记录\"，并将英伟达的担保定性为未来融资中\"第一道损失保护\"，即公司将吸收超出预期的早期价值损失。尽管风险犹存，华尔街的热情已然点燃。黑石的Jon Gray和贝莱德的Larry Fink均公开表示，旗下机构有意部署资本，以把握新建数据中心的庞大需求——这些数据中心将用于训练和运行最新的AI模型。报道指出，另一位与英伟达合作的高管预测，GPU租赁将推动定价标准化，并为AI企业创造规模效益。他表示，随着\"人们逐渐摸清门道\"，公开债务市场的投资者最终也将进入这一领域，使该资产类别的流动性和可交易性得到提升。分析人士认为，这一进程的关键，在于市场能否就芯片的长期价值形成共识。如果英伟达的25%残值担保经受住市场检验，芯片租赁证券化或将成为继数据中心基础设施债务之后，AI投资浪潮催生的又一主流资产类别。但若AI需求出现降温、算力需求增速放缓，这场由黄仁勋主导的5000亿美元豪赌，将面临一次严峻的压力测试。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AIFD":0.6,"ANV":0.6,"NVDG":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"SNVD.UK":0.6,"NVD2.UK":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"TTXU":0.6,"NULC":0.6,"NVDL":0.6,"NVDO":0.6,"ESLG":0.6,"2NVD.UK":0.6,"ESUM":0.6,"USXF":0.6,"AGOX":0.6,"THMR":0.6,"ABFL":0.6,"METV":0.6,"NVIW.SI":0.6,"CLSE":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"SNPE":0.6,"NVDQ":0.6,"NVDA":2.1,"NVDD":0.6,"07788":0.6,"CMAG":0.6,"TRFK":0.6,"NVDB":0.6,"EFIV":0.6,"VT":0.6,"CHPX":0.6,"NVYY":0.6,"SHOC":0.6,"GAMR":0.6,"XLK":0.6,"ARTY":0.6,"WISE":0.6,"NVII":0.6,"TYLG":0.6,"JGRO":0.6,"ILDR":0.6,"VGT":0.6,"TTEQ":0.6,"IETC":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"FDTX":0.6,"AIPI":0.6,"NVDW":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"DIPS":0.6,"TEK":0.6,"LFGY":0.6,"IXN":0.6,"07388":0.6,"FAI":0.6,"FTEC":0.6,"CNEQ":0.6,"NVD3.UK":0.6,"ROM":0.6,"3NVD.UK":0.6,"SPTE":0.6,"NVDS.UK":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":126,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":570446365103152,"gmtCreate":1780273411702,"gmtModify":1780277808148,"author":{"id":"3582775585343989","authorId":"3582775585343989","name":"多云轩","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582775585343989","idStr":"3582775585343989"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"哇","listText":"哇","text":"哇","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/570446365103152","repostId":"1126722787","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1126722787","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1780272654,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1126722787?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-06-01 08:10","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美股夜盘 | 云计算服务商走强，IBM续涨逾13%、慧与科技、ServiceNow涨超10%；ARM续涨逾8%，该股年初至今累涨220%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126722787","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月1日，美股夜盘时段，云计算服务商走强，$IBM(IBM)$涨逾13%、$慧与科技(HPE)$、$ServiceNow(NOW)$涨超10%、$甲骨文(ORCL)$涨超5%，$CoreWeave(CRWV)$、$NEBIUS(NBIS)$涨超3%；$ARM(ARM)$续涨逾8%，该股年初至今累涨涨220%；$戴尔(DELL)$续涨逾4%，Q1业绩大超预期叠加多家投行上调目标价延续强势。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>6月1日，美股夜盘时段，云计算服务商走强，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a>涨逾13%、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HPE\">慧与科技</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOW\">ServiceNow</a>涨超10%、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">甲骨文</a>涨超5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWV\">CoreWeave</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NBIS\">NEBIUS</a>涨超3%；</p><p>软件股延续强势，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\">赛富时</a>涨超6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">Snowflake</a>涨超5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir</a>涨超3%；</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARM\">ARM</a>续涨逾8%，该股年初至今累涨220%；该股近期持续受益于AI推理CPU需求爆发叙事；</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DELL\">戴尔</a>续涨逾4%，上个交易日飙涨逾32%，Q1业绩大超预期叠加多家投行上调目标价延续强势；</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TMHC\">Taylor Morrison</a>涨20%，伯克希尔宣布将斥资85亿美元对其收购，逆势加码美国楼市。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股夜盘 | 云计算服务商走强，IBM续涨逾13%、慧与科技、ServiceNow涨超10%；ARM续涨逾8%，该股年初至今累涨220%</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股夜盘 | 云计算服务商走强，IBM续涨逾13%、慧与科技、ServiceNow涨超10%；ARM续涨逾8%，该股年初至今累涨220%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-06-01 08:10</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>6月1日，美股夜盘时段，云计算服务商走强，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a>涨逾13%、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HPE\">慧与科技</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOW\">ServiceNow</a>涨超10%、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">甲骨文</a>涨超5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWV\">CoreWeave</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NBIS\">NEBIUS</a>涨超3%；</p><p>软件股延续强势，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\">赛富时</a>涨超6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">Snowflake</a>涨超5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir</a>涨超3%；</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARM\">ARM</a>续涨逾8%，该股年初至今累涨220%；该股近期持续受益于AI推理CPU需求爆发叙事；</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DELL\">戴尔</a>续涨逾4%，上个交易日飙涨逾32%，Q1业绩大超预期叠加多家投行上调目标价延续强势；</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TMHC\">Taylor Morrison</a>涨20%，伯克希尔宣布将斥资85亿美元对其收购，逆势加码美国楼市。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d1fe578ee46cbe0d24c33435ff25ae5","relate_stocks":{"LU0868494617.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU1880398471.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS GLOBAL EQUITY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU1974910355.USD":"Allianz Thematica Cl AMg DIS USD","IE00B19Z9P08.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US AGGRESSIVE GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2433249047.HKD":"THEMATICS META \"R/A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","BK4602":"量子计算概念","BK4566":"资本集团","LU1989772840.SGD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc SGD-H","BK4528":"SaaS概念","LU1894683348.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS US EQUITY RESEARCH VALUE \"A2\" (USD) INC","LU1989772923.USD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc USD-H","LU2023250504.SGD":"Allianz Thematica Cl AMg DIS H2-SGD","LU0265550359.USD":"BGF SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL ENHANCED EQUITY YIELD \"A2\" (USD) 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13:24","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"港股异动 | 芯片股拉升，华虹半导体、长光辰芯涨超13%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185745739","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"5月20日，港股芯片股盘中拉升，$华虹半导体(01347)$、$长光辰芯(03277)$涨超13%，$兆易创新(03986)$涨超12%，$中芯国际(00981)$涨超12%，$壁仞科技(06082)$涨7%，$英诺赛科(02577)$涨超6%，$ASMPT(00522)$涨超5%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>5月20日，港股芯片股盘中拉升，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01347\">华虹半导体</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03277\">长光辰芯</a>涨超13%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00981\">中芯国际</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03986\">兆易创新</a>涨超12%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06082\">壁仞科技</a>涨7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02577\">英诺赛科</a>涨超6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00522\">ASMPT</a>涨超5%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbbe0dff8e125b7fb218069496c51543\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-05-20 13:24</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>5月20日，港股芯片股盘中拉升，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01347\">华虹半导体</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03277\">长光辰芯</a>涨超13%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00981\">中芯国际</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03986\">兆易创新</a>涨超12%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06082\">壁仞科技</a>涨7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02577\">英诺赛科</a>涨超6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00522\">ASMPT</a>涨超5%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbbe0dff8e125b7fb218069496c51543\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03e38a3a3c63bd5a9d8d8ca2d384d1c5","relate_stocks":{"159813":"芯片","BK1589":"北水核心资产","CHPS":"XTRACKERS SEMICONDUCTOR SELECT EQUITY ETF","BK4588":"碎股","SOXX":"iShares费城交易所半导体ETF","SMHX":"VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF","BK1163":"半导体产品","SOXY":"YieldMax Target 12 Semiconductor Option Income ETF","CHAT":"ROUNDHILL GENERATIVE AI & TECHNOLOGY ETF","CHPY":"YieldMax Semiconductor Portfolio Option Income ETF","TEKX":"SPDR Galaxy Transformative Tech Accelerators ETF","XSD":"SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF","BK1179":"电子设备和仪器","BK1614":"港股-半导体","01347":"华虹宏力","BK1607":"新IT概念","SOXL":"三倍做多半导体ETF-Direxion Daily","IE0034224299.USD":"PINEBRIDGE ASIA EX JAPAN EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","SSG":"Proshares Ultrashort Semiconductors","SMH":"半导体指数ETF-HOLDRs","VXUS":"国际股票ETF-Vanguard","PSI":"INVESCO SEMICONDUCTORS ETF","SOXQ":"Invesco PHLX 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08:10","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美股夜盘 | 云计算服务商走强，IBM续涨逾13%、慧与科技、ServiceNow涨超10%；ARM续涨逾8%，该股年初至今累涨220%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126722787","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月1日，美股夜盘时段，云计算服务商走强，$IBM(IBM)$涨逾13%、$慧与科技(HPE)$、$ServiceNow(NOW)$涨超10%、$甲骨文(ORCL)$涨超5%，$CoreWeave(CRWV)$、$NEBIUS(NBIS)$涨超3%；$ARM(ARM)$续涨逾8%，该股年初至今累涨涨220%；$戴尔(DELL)$续涨逾4%，Q1业绩大超预期叠加多家投行上调目标价延续强势。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>6月1日，美股夜盘时段，云计算服务商走强，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a>涨逾13%、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HPE\">慧与科技</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOW\">ServiceNow</a>涨超10%、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">甲骨文</a>涨超5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWV\">CoreWeave</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NBIS\">NEBIUS</a>涨超3%；</p><p>软件股延续强势，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\">赛富时</a>涨超6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">Snowflake</a>涨超5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir</a>涨超3%；</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARM\">ARM</a>续涨逾8%，该股年初至今累涨220%；该股近期持续受益于AI推理CPU需求爆发叙事；</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DELL\">戴尔</a>续涨逾4%，上个交易日飙涨逾32%，Q1业绩大超预期叠加多家投行上调目标价延续强势；</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TMHC\">Taylor Morrison</a>涨20%，伯克希尔宣布将斥资85亿美元对其收购，逆势加码美国楼市。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股夜盘 | 云计算服务商走强，IBM续涨逾13%、慧与科技、ServiceNow涨超10%；ARM续涨逾8%，该股年初至今累涨220%</title>\n<style 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08:10</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>6月1日，美股夜盘时段，云计算服务商走强，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a>涨逾13%、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HPE\">慧与科技</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOW\">ServiceNow</a>涨超10%、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">甲骨文</a>涨超5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWV\">CoreWeave</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NBIS\">NEBIUS</a>涨超3%；</p><p>软件股延续强势，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\">赛富时</a>涨超6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">Snowflake</a>涨超5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir</a>涨超3%；</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARM\">ARM</a>续涨逾8%，该股年初至今累涨220%；该股近期持续受益于AI推理CPU需求爆发叙事；</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DELL\">戴尔</a>续涨逾4%，上个交易日飙涨逾32%，Q1业绩大超预期叠加多家投行上调目标价延续强势；</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TMHC\">Taylor Morrison</a>涨20%，伯克希尔宣布将斥资85亿美元对其收购，逆势加码美国楼市。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d1fe578ee46cbe0d24c33435ff25ae5","relate_stocks":{"LU0868494617.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU1880398471.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS GLOBAL EQUITY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU1974910355.USD":"Allianz Thematica Cl AMg DIS USD","IE00B19Z9P08.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US AGGRESSIVE GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2433249047.HKD":"THEMATICS META \"R/A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","BK4602":"量子计算概念","BK4566":"资本集团","LU1989772840.SGD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc SGD-H","BK4528":"SaaS概念","LU1894683348.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS US EQUITY RESEARCH VALUE \"A2\" (USD) INC","LU1989772923.USD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc USD-H","LU2023250504.SGD":"Allianz Thematica Cl AMg DIS H2-SGD","LU0265550359.USD":"BGF SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL ENHANCED EQUITY YIELD \"A2\" (USD) 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13:24","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"港股异动 | 芯片股拉升，华虹半导体、长光辰芯涨超13%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185745739","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"5月20日，港股芯片股盘中拉升，$华虹半导体(01347)$、$长光辰芯(03277)$涨超13%，$兆易创新(03986)$涨超12%，$中芯国际(00981)$涨超12%，$壁仞科技(06082)$涨7%，$英诺赛科(02577)$涨超6%，$ASMPT(00522)$涨超5%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>5月20日，港股芯片股盘中拉升，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01347\">华虹半导体</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03277\">长光辰芯</a>涨超13%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00981\">中芯国际</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03986\">兆易创新</a>涨超12%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06082\">壁仞科技</a>涨7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02577\">英诺赛科</a>涨超6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00522\">ASMPT</a>涨超5%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbbe0dff8e125b7fb218069496c51543\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-05-20 13:24</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>5月20日，港股芯片股盘中拉升，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01347\">华虹半导体</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03277\">长光辰芯</a>涨超13%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00981\">中芯国际</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03986\">兆易创新</a>涨超12%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06082\">壁仞科技</a>涨7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02577\">英诺赛科</a>涨超6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00522\">ASMPT</a>涨超5%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbbe0dff8e125b7fb218069496c51543\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03e38a3a3c63bd5a9d8d8ca2d384d1c5","relate_stocks":{"159813":"芯片","BK1589":"北水核心资产","CHPS":"XTRACKERS SEMICONDUCTOR SELECT EQUITY ETF","BK4588":"碎股","SOXX":"iShares费城交易所半导体ETF","SMHX":"VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF","BK1163":"半导体产品","SOXY":"YieldMax Target 12 Semiconductor Option Income ETF","CHAT":"ROUNDHILL GENERATIVE AI & TECHNOLOGY ETF","CHPY":"YieldMax Semiconductor Portfolio Option Income ETF","TEKX":"SPDR Galaxy Transformative Tech Accelerators ETF","XSD":"SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF","BK1179":"电子设备和仪器","BK1614":"港股-半导体","01347":"华虹宏力","BK1607":"新IT概念","SOXL":"三倍做多半导体ETF-Direxion Daily","IE0034224299.USD":"PINEBRIDGE ASIA EX JAPAN EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","SSG":"Proshares Ultrashort Semiconductors","SMH":"半导体指数ETF-HOLDRs","VXUS":"国际股票ETF-Vanguard","PSI":"INVESCO SEMICONDUCTORS ETF","SOXQ":"Invesco PHLX 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07:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"闪迪定“超高”长期目标：FY2028-30营收中高双位数增长、毛利率80%，周四股价一度涨近20%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2659160313","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"闪迪预计，2028至2030财年，非GAAP口径下，公司毛利率维持在约80%，营业利润率约75%，调整后自由现金流利润率约50%；承诺在完成业务投资后，剩余现金100%返还股东；长期输入比特量增长目标为中高双位数，但可供销售的比特量将根据优化盈利能力的需要灵活调整；披露八大客户签长协，协议已覆盖2028财年约三分之二比特出货量；2030年企业级闪存TAM料达1.2ZB。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">AI推理需求持续推高存储需求之际，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDK\">闪迪</a>给出了极为激进的长期财务目标。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美东时间23日周四，闪迪在2026年投资者日公布长期财务模型，提出一系列2028财年至2030财年将要达到的财务目标，包括这期间内，公司<strong>营收</strong>将保持<strong>中高双位数增长</strong>。闪迪还澄清市场对比特增长的疑虑，提出<strong>可供销售比特量将根据盈利优化需要调整</strong>，同时承诺，在完成业务投资后，将把100%的剩余现金返还股东。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">消息公布后，市场迅速用股价投票。闪迪（SNDK）周四盘中涨幅一度扩大至<strong>17.6%</strong>；存储板块同步走强。到收盘，闪迪涨近14%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKHY\">SK海力士</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDC\">西部数据</a>涨超7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STX\">希捷科技</a>涨近5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>涨逾4%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aca30000443e5317111c970923d888f9\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"980\" tg-height=\"651\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">FY2028-30目标：毛利率80%、营业利润率75%</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此次投资者日最受市场关注的，无疑是闪迪给出的长期财务模型。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">公司预计，在<strong>2028至2030财年</strong>期间，营收将保持<strong>中高双位数增长</strong>，增速与比特出货量增长相匹配；与此同时，非GAAP口径下，毛利率预计维持在约<strong>80%</strong>，营业利润率约为<strong>75%。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这里需要特别注意财年的时间概念。闪迪的财年并不与自然年重合，公司财年截至最接近6月30日的周五，通常为52周，2026财年、即上一财年于2026年7月3日结束。<strong>2026年7月初已经进入2027财年</strong>，因此此次公布的2028至2030财年区间并非自然年2028年至2030年，而是指<strong>从2027年7月左右开始、连续三个财年的未来区间</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在这一财务模型下，闪迪预计运营费用占营收比例约为<strong>5%</strong>，其他收入及支出不会产生重大影响。即使计入税收、资本开支以及支撑业务增长所需的营运资金，公司仍预计调整后自由现金流利润率能够达到约<strong>50%</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对于此前高度周期性的NAND存储行业而言，这组目标尤其激进。闪迪实际上是在向市场传递一个明确判断：AI驱动的存储需求增长，有望让公司未来数年的营收增长与盈利能力保持在远高于传统存储周期平均水平的位置。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">不盲目追求“比特量”：闪迪将根据盈利能力灵活调节可销售产量</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">而闪迪此次释放的另一个重要信号，是公司并不准备简单地以扩大比特出货量作为增长目标，而是会<strong>主动根据盈利能力调整可供销售的比特量</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此前市场曾关注闪迪FY2027的比特量增长指引：公司预计输入端比特量增长达到中高双位数，而可供销售的输出比特量增长则可能低于这一水平。投资者日上，管理层进一步澄清，这并不意味着公司缺乏扩大产出的能力。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据Lynx Equity Strategies分析师KC Rajkumar对管理层表态的解读，闪迪CEO David Goeckeler明确表示，<strong>长期输入比特量增长目标为中高双位数，但可供销售的比特量将根据优化盈利能力的需要灵活调整</strong>；在某些时期，实际输出比特量增长甚至可能超过中高双位数。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这意味着，闪迪更看重的是“每一比特能赚多少钱”，而不是单纯追求“卖出多少比特”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">尤其是在NAND技术节点切换过程中，公司还会有选择地削减晶圆产出，以避免新技术带来的比特密度提升过快、进而导致市场供应过剩。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Rajkumar指出，闪迪每次NAND技术节点切换平均能够带来约<strong>54%的比特增长</strong>。因此，如果公司完全释放技术升级带来的新增产能，很容易重新制造供过于求的局面。通过在节点切换期间主动减少晶圆产出，闪迪可以控制进入市场的比特量，从而更好地维护价格、利润率和资本效率。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这套思路也解释了为什么闪迪敢于给出约80%的长期毛利率目标：技术进步带来的比特密度提升，不一定全部转化为供给增长，公司可以主动“踩刹车”，将部分技术红利转化为盈利能力。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">“赚到的钱”更多返还股东：超额现金100%回购或分红</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">除了营收和利润率目标，闪迪还给出了非常明确的资本回报承诺。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">闪迪首席财务官（CFO）Luis Visoso表示，在完成支持业务增长所需的投资之后，公司预计将把<strong>100%的超额现金返还给股东</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这意味着，闪迪未来的资本配置框架将围绕三条主线展开：首先投资于支持增长的业务和技术，其次保持强劲的自由现金流创造能力，最后将剩余现金尽可能返还给股东。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">而约<strong>50%的调整后自由现金流利润率</strong>，意味着如果长期财务模型能够兑现，闪迪未来产生现金的能力将非常强，这也是市场愿意给予其更高估值的重要原因之一。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">八大客户签长期协议，已覆盖FY2028约三分之二比特出货量</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">闪迪之所以对上述长期财务模型表现出较强信心，一个重要原因在于公司正在改变传统NAND行业的商业模式。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">公司披露，目前已经与<strong>8家客户</strong>签署新商业模式（NBM）协议。这些协议包括承诺采购量、具有约束力的合同框架、最低财务保障以及结构化定价机制，可以加强客户需求与公司产能规划之间的匹配，并降低传统存储行业周期性波动的影响。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">更重要的是，这些协议覆盖的规模已经相当可观：目前签署的NBM协议约覆盖<strong>FY2027比特出货量的50%</strong>，以及<strong>FY2028比特出货量的约三分之二</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">闪迪认为，这种模式能够带来更加可预测的营收、更高的现金流可见度以及更加持久的盈利增长。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">换句话说，闪迪不仅在押注AI带来的存储需求增长，也在试图通过长期协议把传统NAND业务较强的周期属性部分转化为更加稳定、可预测的收入和现金流。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">AI推理催生更大存储市场，2030年企业级闪存TAM料达1.2ZB</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">闪迪对未来三年高增长的另一大支撑，是AI从训练向推理扩张后，对存储基础设施提出的新需求。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">公司表示，AI推理工作负载正在推动Token使用量快速增长，KV Cache正在重塑数据中心的内存层级。随着AI推理规模扩大，AI数据中心将变得更加依赖存储，闪迪预计，到<strong>2030年企业数据中心闪存的总可用市场（TAM）将达到1.2泽字节（ZB）</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在技术层面，闪迪正在推进基于CMOS直接键合阵列（CBA）的二维扩展战略，以便更加灵活地开发满足不同市场需求的定制产品，同时提高资本效率。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">公司最新的BiCS9 QLC技术就是这一战略的首个案例。该技术将BiCS8阵列与基于BiCS10的CMOS晶圆结合；与此同时，新的BiCS10 QLC节点较BiCS8实现<strong>60%的比特密度提升</strong>。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">HBF押注AI推理，存储板块集体大涨</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">闪迪还在推进面向AI推理的新型高带宽闪存（HBF）技术。公司称，HBF正在成为应对AI推理时代存储需求的重要技术方案，目前相关产业生态也正在形成。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在市场看来，这意味着闪迪的AI存储逻辑已经不再局限于“AI数据中心需要更多SSD”，而是进一步延伸至AI推理架构本身对<strong>更高性能、更低功耗和更高存储密度</strong>的需求。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这一预期也迅速传导至整个存储板块。闪迪自身的涨势更为突出：在公布长期财务目标后，其股价盘中一度涨近18%。今年以来，闪迪股价累计涨幅已经超过530%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">不过，闪迪同时强调，前述长期财务目标属于前瞻性指标，建立在一系列估计和假设基础上，实际结果仍可能受到需求、平均售价、竞争、技术迭代、供应链以及存储行业周期等因素影响。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>闪迪定“超高”长期目标：FY2028-30营收中高双位数增长、毛利率80%，周四股价一度涨近20%</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n闪迪定“超高”长期目标：FY2028-30营收中高双位数增长、毛利率80%，周四股价一度涨近20%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-08-14 07:30</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">AI推理需求持续推高存储需求之际，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDK\">闪迪</a>给出了极为激进的长期财务目标。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美东时间23日周四，闪迪在2026年投资者日公布长期财务模型，提出一系列2028财年至2030财年将要达到的财务目标，包括这期间内，公司<strong>营收</strong>将保持<strong>中高双位数增长</strong>。闪迪还澄清市场对比特增长的疑虑，提出<strong>可供销售比特量将根据盈利优化需要调整</strong>，同时承诺，在完成业务投资后，将把100%的剩余现金返还股东。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">消息公布后，市场迅速用股价投票。闪迪（SNDK）周四盘中涨幅一度扩大至<strong>17.6%</strong>；存储板块同步走强。到收盘，闪迪涨近14%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKHY\">SK海力士</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDC\">西部数据</a>涨超7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STX\">希捷科技</a>涨近5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>涨逾4%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aca30000443e5317111c970923d888f9\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"980\" tg-height=\"651\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">FY2028-30目标：毛利率80%、营业利润率75%</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此次投资者日最受市场关注的，无疑是闪迪给出的长期财务模型。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">公司预计，在<strong>2028至2030财年</strong>期间，营收将保持<strong>中高双位数增长</strong>，增速与比特出货量增长相匹配；与此同时，非GAAP口径下，毛利率预计维持在约<strong>80%</strong>，营业利润率约为<strong>75%。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这里需要特别注意财年的时间概念。闪迪的财年并不与自然年重合，公司财年截至最接近6月30日的周五，通常为52周，2026财年、即上一财年于2026年7月3日结束。<strong>2026年7月初已经进入2027财年</strong>，因此此次公布的2028至2030财年区间并非自然年2028年至2030年，而是指<strong>从2027年7月左右开始、连续三个财年的未来区间</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在这一财务模型下，闪迪预计运营费用占营收比例约为<strong>5%</strong>，其他收入及支出不会产生重大影响。即使计入税收、资本开支以及支撑业务增长所需的营运资金，公司仍预计调整后自由现金流利润率能够达到约<strong>50%</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对于此前高度周期性的NAND存储行业而言，这组目标尤其激进。闪迪实际上是在向市场传递一个明确判断：AI驱动的存储需求增长，有望让公司未来数年的营收增长与盈利能力保持在远高于传统存储周期平均水平的位置。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">不盲目追求“比特量”：闪迪将根据盈利能力灵活调节可销售产量</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">而闪迪此次释放的另一个重要信号，是公司并不准备简单地以扩大比特出货量作为增长目标，而是会<strong>主动根据盈利能力调整可供销售的比特量</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此前市场曾关注闪迪FY2027的比特量增长指引：公司预计输入端比特量增长达到中高双位数，而可供销售的输出比特量增长则可能低于这一水平。投资者日上，管理层进一步澄清，这并不意味着公司缺乏扩大产出的能力。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据Lynx Equity Strategies分析师KC Rajkumar对管理层表态的解读，闪迪CEO David Goeckeler明确表示，<strong>长期输入比特量增长目标为中高双位数，但可供销售的比特量将根据优化盈利能力的需要灵活调整</strong>；在某些时期，实际输出比特量增长甚至可能超过中高双位数。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这意味着，闪迪更看重的是“每一比特能赚多少钱”，而不是单纯追求“卖出多少比特”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">尤其是在NAND技术节点切换过程中，公司还会有选择地削减晶圆产出，以避免新技术带来的比特密度提升过快、进而导致市场供应过剩。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Rajkumar指出，闪迪每次NAND技术节点切换平均能够带来约<strong>54%的比特增长</strong>。因此，如果公司完全释放技术升级带来的新增产能，很容易重新制造供过于求的局面。通过在节点切换期间主动减少晶圆产出，闪迪可以控制进入市场的比特量，从而更好地维护价格、利润率和资本效率。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这套思路也解释了为什么闪迪敢于给出约80%的长期毛利率目标：技术进步带来的比特密度提升，不一定全部转化为供给增长，公司可以主动“踩刹车”，将部分技术红利转化为盈利能力。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">“赚到的钱”更多返还股东：超额现金100%回购或分红</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">除了营收和利润率目标，闪迪还给出了非常明确的资本回报承诺。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">闪迪首席财务官（CFO）Luis Visoso表示，在完成支持业务增长所需的投资之后，公司预计将把<strong>100%的超额现金返还给股东</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这意味着，闪迪未来的资本配置框架将围绕三条主线展开：首先投资于支持增长的业务和技术，其次保持强劲的自由现金流创造能力，最后将剩余现金尽可能返还给股东。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">而约<strong>50%的调整后自由现金流利润率</strong>，意味着如果长期财务模型能够兑现，闪迪未来产生现金的能力将非常强，这也是市场愿意给予其更高估值的重要原因之一。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">八大客户签长期协议，已覆盖FY2028约三分之二比特出货量</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">闪迪之所以对上述长期财务模型表现出较强信心，一个重要原因在于公司正在改变传统NAND行业的商业模式。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">公司披露，目前已经与<strong>8家客户</strong>签署新商业模式（NBM）协议。这些协议包括承诺采购量、具有约束力的合同框架、最低财务保障以及结构化定价机制，可以加强客户需求与公司产能规划之间的匹配，并降低传统存储行业周期性波动的影响。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">更重要的是，这些协议覆盖的规模已经相当可观：目前签署的NBM协议约覆盖<strong>FY2027比特出货量的50%</strong>，以及<strong>FY2028比特出货量的约三分之二</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">闪迪认为，这种模式能够带来更加可预测的营收、更高的现金流可见度以及更加持久的盈利增长。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">换句话说，闪迪不仅在押注AI带来的存储需求增长，也在试图通过长期协议把传统NAND业务较强的周期属性部分转化为更加稳定、可预测的收入和现金流。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">AI推理催生更大存储市场，2030年企业级闪存TAM料达1.2ZB</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">闪迪对未来三年高增长的另一大支撑，是AI从训练向推理扩张后，对存储基础设施提出的新需求。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">公司表示，AI推理工作负载正在推动Token使用量快速增长，KV Cache正在重塑数据中心的内存层级。随着AI推理规模扩大，AI数据中心将变得更加依赖存储，闪迪预计，到<strong>2030年企业数据中心闪存的总可用市场（TAM）将达到1.2泽字节（ZB）</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在技术层面，闪迪正在推进基于CMOS直接键合阵列（CBA）的二维扩展战略，以便更加灵活地开发满足不同市场需求的定制产品，同时提高资本效率。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">公司最新的BiCS9 QLC技术就是这一战略的首个案例。该技术将BiCS8阵列与基于BiCS10的CMOS晶圆结合；与此同时，新的BiCS10 QLC节点较BiCS8实现<strong>60%的比特密度提升</strong>。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">HBF押注AI推理，存储板块集体大涨</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">闪迪还在推进面向AI推理的新型高带宽闪存（HBF）技术。公司称，HBF正在成为应对AI推理时代存储需求的重要技术方案，目前相关产业生态也正在形成。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在市场看来，这意味着闪迪的AI存储逻辑已经不再局限于“AI数据中心需要更多SSD”，而是进一步延伸至AI推理架构本身对<strong>更高性能、更低功耗和更高存储密度</strong>的需求。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这一预期也迅速传导至整个存储板块。闪迪自身的涨势更为突出：在公布长期财务目标后，其股价盘中一度涨近18%。今年以来，闪迪股价累计涨幅已经超过530%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">不过，闪迪同时强调，前述长期财务目标属于前瞻性指标，建立在一系列估计和假设基础上，实际结果仍可能受到需求、平均售价、竞争、技术迭代、供应链以及存储行业周期等因素影响。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4be70e998606c6ffabafd2bbe737fa8","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3779397","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2659160313","content_text":"AI推理需求持续推高存储需求之际，闪迪给出了极为激进的长期财务目标。美东时间23日周四，闪迪在2026年投资者日公布长期财务模型，提出一系列2028财年至2030财年将要达到的财务目标，包括这期间内，公司营收将保持中高双位数增长。闪迪还澄清市场对比特增长的疑虑，提出可供销售比特量将根据盈利优化需要调整，同时承诺，在完成业务投资后，将把100%的剩余现金返还股东。消息公布后，市场迅速用股价投票。闪迪（SNDK）周四盘中涨幅一度扩大至17.6%；存储板块同步走强。到收盘，闪迪涨近14%，SK海力士和西部数据涨超7%，希捷科技涨近5%，美光科技涨逾4%。FY2028-30目标：毛利率80%、营业利润率75%此次投资者日最受市场关注的，无疑是闪迪给出的长期财务模型。公司预计，在2028至2030财年期间，营收将保持中高双位数增长，增速与比特出货量增长相匹配；与此同时，非GAAP口径下，毛利率预计维持在约80%，营业利润率约为75%。这里需要特别注意财年的时间概念。闪迪的财年并不与自然年重合，公司财年截至最接近6月30日的周五，通常为52周，2026财年、即上一财年于2026年7月3日结束。2026年7月初已经进入2027财年，因此此次公布的2028至2030财年区间并非自然年2028年至2030年，而是指从2027年7月左右开始、连续三个财年的未来区间。在这一财务模型下，闪迪预计运营费用占营收比例约为5%，其他收入及支出不会产生重大影响。即使计入税收、资本开支以及支撑业务增长所需的营运资金，公司仍预计调整后自由现金流利润率能够达到约50%。对于此前高度周期性的NAND存储行业而言，这组目标尤其激进。闪迪实际上是在向市场传递一个明确判断：AI驱动的存储需求增长，有望让公司未来数年的营收增长与盈利能力保持在远高于传统存储周期平均水平的位置。不盲目追求“比特量”：闪迪将根据盈利能力灵活调节可销售产量而闪迪此次释放的另一个重要信号，是公司并不准备简单地以扩大比特出货量作为增长目标，而是会主动根据盈利能力调整可供销售的比特量。此前市场曾关注闪迪FY2027的比特量增长指引：公司预计输入端比特量增长达到中高双位数，而可供销售的输出比特量增长则可能低于这一水平。投资者日上，管理层进一步澄清，这并不意味着公司缺乏扩大产出的能力。据Lynx Equity Strategies分析师KC Rajkumar对管理层表态的解读，闪迪CEO David Goeckeler明确表示，长期输入比特量增长目标为中高双位数，但可供销售的比特量将根据优化盈利能力的需要灵活调整；在某些时期，实际输出比特量增长甚至可能超过中高双位数。这意味着，闪迪更看重的是“每一比特能赚多少钱”，而不是单纯追求“卖出多少比特”。尤其是在NAND技术节点切换过程中，公司还会有选择地削减晶圆产出，以避免新技术带来的比特密度提升过快、进而导致市场供应过剩。Rajkumar指出，闪迪每次NAND技术节点切换平均能够带来约54%的比特增长。因此，如果公司完全释放技术升级带来的新增产能，很容易重新制造供过于求的局面。通过在节点切换期间主动减少晶圆产出，闪迪可以控制进入市场的比特量，从而更好地维护价格、利润率和资本效率。这套思路也解释了为什么闪迪敢于给出约80%的长期毛利率目标：技术进步带来的比特密度提升，不一定全部转化为供给增长，公司可以主动“踩刹车”，将部分技术红利转化为盈利能力。“赚到的钱”更多返还股东：超额现金100%回购或分红除了营收和利润率目标，闪迪还给出了非常明确的资本回报承诺。闪迪首席财务官（CFO）Luis Visoso表示，在完成支持业务增长所需的投资之后，公司预计将把100%的超额现金返还给股东。这意味着，闪迪未来的资本配置框架将围绕三条主线展开：首先投资于支持增长的业务和技术，其次保持强劲的自由现金流创造能力，最后将剩余现金尽可能返还给股东。而约50%的调整后自由现金流利润率，意味着如果长期财务模型能够兑现，闪迪未来产生现金的能力将非常强，这也是市场愿意给予其更高估值的重要原因之一。八大客户签长期协议，已覆盖FY2028约三分之二比特出货量闪迪之所以对上述长期财务模型表现出较强信心，一个重要原因在于公司正在改变传统NAND行业的商业模式。公司披露，目前已经与8家客户签署新商业模式（NBM）协议。这些协议包括承诺采购量、具有约束力的合同框架、最低财务保障以及结构化定价机制，可以加强客户需求与公司产能规划之间的匹配，并降低传统存储行业周期性波动的影响。更重要的是，这些协议覆盖的规模已经相当可观：目前签署的NBM协议约覆盖FY2027比特出货量的50%，以及FY2028比特出货量的约三分之二。闪迪认为，这种模式能够带来更加可预测的营收、更高的现金流可见度以及更加持久的盈利增长。换句话说，闪迪不仅在押注AI带来的存储需求增长，也在试图通过长期协议把传统NAND业务较强的周期属性部分转化为更加稳定、可预测的收入和现金流。AI推理催生更大存储市场，2030年企业级闪存TAM料达1.2ZB闪迪对未来三年高增长的另一大支撑，是AI从训练向推理扩张后，对存储基础设施提出的新需求。公司表示，AI推理工作负载正在推动Token使用量快速增长，KV Cache正在重塑数据中心的内存层级。随着AI推理规模扩大，AI数据中心将变得更加依赖存储，闪迪预计，到2030年企业数据中心闪存的总可用市场（TAM）将达到1.2泽字节（ZB）。在技术层面，闪迪正在推进基于CMOS直接键合阵列（CBA）的二维扩展战略，以便更加灵活地开发满足不同市场需求的定制产品，同时提高资本效率。公司最新的BiCS9 QLC技术就是这一战略的首个案例。该技术将BiCS8阵列与基于BiCS10的CMOS晶圆结合；与此同时，新的BiCS10 QLC节点较BiCS8实现60%的比特密度提升。HBF押注AI推理，存储板块集体大涨闪迪还在推进面向AI推理的新型高带宽闪存（HBF）技术。公司称，HBF正在成为应对AI推理时代存储需求的重要技术方案，目前相关产业生态也正在形成。在市场看来，这意味着闪迪的AI存储逻辑已经不再局限于“AI数据中心需要更多SSD”，而是进一步延伸至AI推理架构本身对更高性能、更低功耗和更高存储密度的需求。这一预期也迅速传导至整个存储板块。闪迪自身的涨势更为突出：在公布长期财务目标后，其股价盘中一度涨近18%。今年以来，闪迪股价累计涨幅已经超过530%。不过，闪迪同时强调，前述长期财务目标属于前瞻性指标，建立在一系列估计和假设基础上，实际结果仍可能受到需求、平均售价、竞争、技术迭代、供应链以及存储行业周期等因素影响。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PTF":0.6,"QQQG":0.6,"COWG":0.6,"TMSL":0.6,"SNDG":0.6,"SNDC":0.6,"FSMD":0.6,"SNDQ":0.6,"SNDU":0.6,"SNXX":0.6,"SCHA":0.6,"SCHM":0.6,"FCUS":0.6,"OPTZ":0.6,"DISK":0.6,"SNDK":2.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":596612838232888,"gmtCreate":1786675586094,"gmtModify":1786675587900,"author":{"id":"3582775585343989","authorId":"3582775585343989","name":"多云轩","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582775585343989","idStr":"3582775585343989"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"长期看200年后还是涨","listText":"长期看200年后还是涨","text":"长期看200年后还是涨","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/596612838232888","repostId":"2659194115","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2659194115","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1786674243,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2659194115?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-08-14 10:24","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"闪迪长期财务指引远超预期，带动港股存储走高","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2659194115","media":"智通财经","summary":"消息面上，隔夜存储巨头$闪迪$大涨超13%，并带动美股存储概念大涨。闪迪在投资者日给出的长期财务目标远超预期，令市场开始重新审视过去对NAND的周期定价逻辑。闪迪预计，在2028至2030财年期间，营收将保持中高双位数增长；非GAAP口径下，毛利率预计维持在约80%，营业利润率约为75%。分析认为，公司实则是在传递一个明确信号：AI驱动的存储需求增长，有望令其未来数年的营收增速与盈利能力中枢显著高于传统存储周期平均水平。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">8月14日，存储概念涨幅居前，截至发稿， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/07709\">南方两倍做多海力士</a>涨10.18%，报37港元；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/07747\">南方两倍做多三星电子</a>(07747)涨4.05%，报82.8港元；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603986\">兆易创新</a>(03986)涨2.2%，报512港元；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688008\">澜起科技</a>(06809)涨2.23%，报293.2港元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">消息面上，隔夜存储巨头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDK\">闪迪</a>大涨超13%，并带动美股存储概念大涨。闪迪在投资者日给出的长期财务目标远超预期，令市场开始重新审视过去对NAND的周期定价逻辑。闪迪预计，在2028至2030财年期间，营收将保持中高双位数增长；非GAAP口径下，毛利率预计维持在约80%，营业利润率约为75%。分析认为，公司实则是在传递一个明确信号：AI驱动的存储需求增长，有望令其未来数年的营收增速与盈利能力中枢显著高于传统存储周期平均水平。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">另据报道，SK海力士董事长崔泰源表示，明年可能将成为近几年最严重的内存短缺年。随着AI服务器需求持续爆发，HBM高带宽存储供不应求，不少科技巨头甚至提前赶到韩国抢签长期协议。面对蜂拥而至的订单，海力士坦言产能有限，即使全力扩产，也难以满足所有客户需求。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>闪迪长期财务指引远超预期，带动港股存储走高</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n闪迪长期财务指引远超预期，带动港股存储走高\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-08-14 10:24 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1479862.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>8月14日，存储概念涨幅居前，截至发稿， 南方两倍做多海力士涨10.18%，报37港元；南方两倍做多三星电子(07747)涨4.05%，报82.8港元；兆易创新(03986)涨2.2%，报512港元；澜起科技(06809)涨2.23%，报293.2港元。消息面上，隔夜存储巨头闪迪大涨超13%，并带动美股存储概念大涨。闪迪在投资者日给出的长期财务目标远超预期，令市场开始重新审视过去对NAND的周期...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1479862.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03e38a3a3c63bd5a9d8d8ca2d384d1c5","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1479862.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2659194115","content_text":"8月14日，存储概念涨幅居前，截至发稿， 南方两倍做多海力士涨10.18%，报37港元；南方两倍做多三星电子(07747)涨4.05%，报82.8港元；兆易创新(03986)涨2.2%，报512港元；澜起科技(06809)涨2.23%，报293.2港元。消息面上，隔夜存储巨头闪迪大涨超13%，并带动美股存储概念大涨。闪迪在投资者日给出的长期财务目标远超预期，令市场开始重新审视过去对NAND的周期定价逻辑。闪迪预计，在2028至2030财年期间，营收将保持中高双位数增长；非GAAP口径下，毛利率预计维持在约80%，营业利润率约为75%。分析认为，公司实则是在传递一个明确信号：AI驱动的存储需求增长，有望令其未来数年的营收增速与盈利能力中枢显著高于传统存储周期平均水平。另据报道，SK海力士董事长崔泰源表示，明年可能将成为近几年最严重的内存短缺年。随着AI服务器需求持续爆发，HBM高带宽存储供不应求，不少科技巨头甚至提前赶到韩国抢签长期协议。面对蜂拥而至的订单，海力士坦言产能有限，即使全力扩产，也难以满足所有客户需求。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"603986":1.93,"688008":1.92,"PTF":0.6,"QQQG":0.6,"SKHA":0.6,"SKUU":0.6,"COWG":0.6,"TMSL":0.6,"SNDG":0.6,"03986":1.93,"SKHZ":0.6,"SKDD":0.6,"SNDC":0.6,"FSMD":0.6,"SNDQ":0.6,"06809":1.92,"SKHX":0.6,"SNDU":0.6,"SNXX":0.6,"SCHA":0.6,"07709":2,"SCHM":0.6,"FCUS":0.6,"HYNX":0.6,"OPTZ":0.6,"07747":1.95,"SKHU":0.6,"SK":0.6,"DISK":0.6,"SNDK":1.9,"SKHY":1.97,"CNAV":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":14,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":596287918818120,"gmtCreate":1786596262206,"gmtModify":1786596264345,"author":{"id":"3582775585343989","authorId":"3582775585343989","name":"多云轩","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582775585343989","idStr":"3582775585343989"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"快到宴会高潮了，然后是一地鸡毛","listText":"快到宴会高潮了，然后是一地鸡毛","text":"快到宴会高潮了，然后是一地鸡毛","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/596287918818120","repostId":"2659817701","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2659817701","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1786589457,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2659817701?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-08-13 10:50","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"黄仁勋5000亿豪赌的关键：芯片能否颠覆科技产品的折旧铁律","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2659817701","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"这场豪赌是将AI芯片租赁债权证券化，打造全新金融资产。核心逻辑是受AI热潮驱动的芯片需求将使芯片价格在更长时间内维持高位。黄仁勋以A100芯片超预期保值为据，并承诺25%残值担保。根本性风险在于：芯片技术迭代快、需求不确定，能否打破科技产品快速折旧的铁律。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>正联手华尔街，押注一个颠覆性命题：<strong>AI芯片能否打破科技产品快速贬值的金融铁律。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达本周宣布联合Apollo、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BX\">黑石</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">贝莱德</a>旗下GIP、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BN\">Brookfield</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>及KKR等华尔街巨头，以联合体形式为AI基础设施项目筹集高达5000亿美元资金，用于AI芯片采购、电力生产及数据中心建设，<strong>金融巨头将为科技企业提供半导体租赁融资。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">8月13日，据英国《金融时报》消息，参与交易的金融高管透露，这一计划的核心逻辑在于：<strong>受AI热潮驱动的芯片需求将使芯片价格在更长时间内维持高位，远超此前多数分析师的预期。</strong>英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋表示，这笔交易将创造一种以芯片为底层资产的全新资产类别，并向规模达22万亿美元的私人资本行业敞开大门。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">然而，这一宏大构想也面临根本性风险：<strong>金融机构能否准确判断英伟达芯片的需求持久性与长期价值，仍是未知数</strong>。与租赁汽车或商用飞机不同，芯片技术迭代迅速、需求波动剧烈，其长期价值存在高度不确定性。<strong>这场5000亿美元的豪赌，本质上是一场关于AI算力需求能否持续、芯片能否成为可靠金融资产的历史性押注。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">交易结构：私人资本入场，英伟达转移表外压力</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这笔交易的核心架构，是将芯片租赁债权证券化，并出售给保险公司等债务买家。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据英国《金融时报》报道，Apollo、KKR、Brookfield等私人资本机构计划将GPU租赁合同打包成证券，利用其管理的保险资产池撬动大规模资金。部分机构考虑设立专项融资公司，并参照私募股权收购中常用的担保贷款凭证（CLO）结构，将芯片资产分层切割，供不同风险偏好的投资者选择。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>&#34;你可以像CLO一样，按不同风险层级为GPU融资，&#34;</strong>一位参与交易的高管表示，但也有人对此持保留态度，认为&#34;每家机构的融资方式都会有所不同&#34;。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对英伟达而言，<strong>这一安排同样具有重要的财务意义。</strong>美银研究分析师Vivek Arya本周指出，华尔街<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FISI\">金融机构</a>的介入，意味着英伟达可以逐步退出&#34;供应商融资&#34;模式——即此前由英伟达直接为客户提供担保、协助其在资本市场融资的做法。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>&#34;负担由财团承担，而非英伟达的资产负债表，&#34;Arya表示，这对英伟达而言是明显利好。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">核心争议：芯片能否打破科技折旧铁律</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这笔交易最大的不确定性，<strong>在于芯片资产的长期价值是否足以支撑金融化运作。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">传统金融逻辑对科技资产的态度历来审慎。目前，针对芯片租赁支持的债务，多数贷款方要求在三至五年内全额还清，其假设前提是：<strong>底层资产在此之后价值将趋近于零。与租赁汽车或商用飞机不同，后者在客户违约时存在成熟的二级市场，而芯片一旦技术过时，几乎没有可靠的买家接盘。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Silicon Valley-based Creative Strategies技术分析师Ben Bajarin直言风险所在：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">&#34;整个方案的前提是持续不断的投资。存在过度建设的风险，需求可能放缓，模型可能改进，不再需要那么多算力。&#34;</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此外，芯片买家或租赁方还需同步建设数据中心，这意味着预期收入流将大幅滞后于支出计划，进一步加剧了现金流层面的压力。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达的反驳：旧芯片仍在创造价值</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">面对质疑，黄仁勋以实际数据为自己的逻辑背书。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">华尔街见闻文章写道，黄仁勋本周一在社交平台X上发文称，英伟达近期芯片的租赁定价已有所上涨，甚至其六年前推出的A100芯片至今仍在使用，使用寿命超出最初预期。他此前也多次强调，即便是较旧的H100芯片，由于算力需求的爆发式增长，其保值能力也远超市场预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达的策略不止于此。该公司通过持续更新其软件平台Cuda，主动延长芯片的使用寿命。Cuda平台是英伟达在AI处理领域保持主导地位的核心，它使客户能够将原本为图形设计的GPU用于加速AI应用。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Bajarin认为，<strong>旺盛的全品类芯片需求在中期内有望为英伟达的方案提供支撑，而长期成功则取决于英伟达能否持续降低产品的总拥有成本。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在风险分担机制上，英伟达也作出了实质性承诺：保证芯片在租赁期内至少保留25%的残值，由这家市值5.3万亿美元的芯片巨头承担初始损失。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据英国《金融时报》报道，一位参与5000亿美元交易的高管表示，&#34;<strong>GPU具有内在价值。英伟达在GPU租赁单价上有长达十年的历史记录</strong>&#34;，并将英伟达的担保定性为未来融资中&#34;第一道损失保护&#34;，即公司将吸收超出预期的早期价值损失。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>尽管风险犹存，华尔街的热情已然点燃。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">黑石的Jon Gray和贝莱德的Larry Fink均公开表示，旗下机构有意部署资本，以把握新建数据中心的庞大需求——这些数据中心将用于训练和运行最新的AI模型。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报道指出，另一位与英伟达合作的高管预测，GPU租赁将推动定价标准化，并为AI企业创造规模效益。他表示，随<strong>着&#34;人们逐渐摸清门道&#34;，公开债务市场的投资者最终也将进入这一领域，使该资产类别的流动性和可交易性得到提升。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">分析人士认为，这一进程的关键，在于市场能否就芯片的长期价值形成共识。<strong>如果英伟达的25%残值担保经受住市场检验，芯片租赁证券化或将成为继数据中心基础设施债务之后，AI投资浪潮催生的又一主流资产类别。但若AI需求出现降温、算力需求增速放缓，这场由黄仁勋主导的5000亿美元豪赌，将面临一次严峻的压力测试。</strong></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>黄仁勋5000亿豪赌的关键：芯片能否颠覆科技产品的折旧铁律</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n黄仁勋5000亿豪赌的关键：芯片能否颠覆科技产品的折旧铁律\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-08-13 10:50</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>正联手华尔街，押注一个颠覆性命题：<strong>AI芯片能否打破科技产品快速贬值的金融铁律。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达本周宣布联合Apollo、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BX\">黑石</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">贝莱德</a>旗下GIP、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BN\">Brookfield</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>及KKR等华尔街巨头，以联合体形式为AI基础设施项目筹集高达5000亿美元资金，用于AI芯片采购、电力生产及数据中心建设，<strong>金融巨头将为科技企业提供半导体租赁融资。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">8月13日，据英国《金融时报》消息，参与交易的金融高管透露，这一计划的核心逻辑在于：<strong>受AI热潮驱动的芯片需求将使芯片价格在更长时间内维持高位，远超此前多数分析师的预期。</strong>英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋表示，这笔交易将创造一种以芯片为底层资产的全新资产类别，并向规模达22万亿美元的私人资本行业敞开大门。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">然而，这一宏大构想也面临根本性风险：<strong>金融机构能否准确判断英伟达芯片的需求持久性与长期价值，仍是未知数</strong>。与租赁汽车或商用飞机不同，芯片技术迭代迅速、需求波动剧烈，其长期价值存在高度不确定性。<strong>这场5000亿美元的豪赌，本质上是一场关于AI算力需求能否持续、芯片能否成为可靠金融资产的历史性押注。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">交易结构：私人资本入场，英伟达转移表外压力</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这笔交易的核心架构，是将芯片租赁债权证券化，并出售给保险公司等债务买家。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据英国《金融时报》报道，Apollo、KKR、Brookfield等私人资本机构计划将GPU租赁合同打包成证券，利用其管理的保险资产池撬动大规模资金。部分机构考虑设立专项融资公司，并参照私募股权收购中常用的担保贷款凭证（CLO）结构，将芯片资产分层切割，供不同风险偏好的投资者选择。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>&#34;你可以像CLO一样，按不同风险层级为GPU融资，&#34;</strong>一位参与交易的高管表示，但也有人对此持保留态度，认为&#34;每家机构的融资方式都会有所不同&#34;。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对英伟达而言，<strong>这一安排同样具有重要的财务意义。</strong>美银研究分析师Vivek Arya本周指出，华尔街<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FISI\">金融机构</a>的介入，意味着英伟达可以逐步退出&#34;供应商融资&#34;模式——即此前由英伟达直接为客户提供担保、协助其在资本市场融资的做法。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>&#34;负担由财团承担，而非英伟达的资产负债表，&#34;Arya表示，这对英伟达而言是明显利好。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">核心争议：芯片能否打破科技折旧铁律</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这笔交易最大的不确定性，<strong>在于芯片资产的长期价值是否足以支撑金融化运作。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">传统金融逻辑对科技资产的态度历来审慎。目前，针对芯片租赁支持的债务，多数贷款方要求在三至五年内全额还清，其假设前提是：<strong>底层资产在此之后价值将趋近于零。与租赁汽车或商用飞机不同，后者在客户违约时存在成熟的二级市场，而芯片一旦技术过时，几乎没有可靠的买家接盘。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Silicon Valley-based Creative Strategies技术分析师Ben Bajarin直言风险所在：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">&#34;整个方案的前提是持续不断的投资。存在过度建设的风险，需求可能放缓，模型可能改进，不再需要那么多算力。&#34;</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此外，芯片买家或租赁方还需同步建设数据中心，这意味着预期收入流将大幅滞后于支出计划，进一步加剧了现金流层面的压力。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达的反驳：旧芯片仍在创造价值</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">面对质疑，黄仁勋以实际数据为自己的逻辑背书。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">华尔街见闻文章写道，黄仁勋本周一在社交平台X上发文称，英伟达近期芯片的租赁定价已有所上涨，甚至其六年前推出的A100芯片至今仍在使用，使用寿命超出最初预期。他此前也多次强调，即便是较旧的H100芯片，由于算力需求的爆发式增长，其保值能力也远超市场预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达的策略不止于此。该公司通过持续更新其软件平台Cuda，主动延长芯片的使用寿命。Cuda平台是英伟达在AI处理领域保持主导地位的核心，它使客户能够将原本为图形设计的GPU用于加速AI应用。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Bajarin认为，<strong>旺盛的全品类芯片需求在中期内有望为英伟达的方案提供支撑，而长期成功则取决于英伟达能否持续降低产品的总拥有成本。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在风险分担机制上，英伟达也作出了实质性承诺：保证芯片在租赁期内至少保留25%的残值，由这家市值5.3万亿美元的芯片巨头承担初始损失。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据英国《金融时报》报道，一位参与5000亿美元交易的高管表示，&#34;<strong>GPU具有内在价值。英伟达在GPU租赁单价上有长达十年的历史记录</strong>&#34;，并将英伟达的担保定性为未来融资中&#34;第一道损失保护&#34;，即公司将吸收超出预期的早期价值损失。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>尽管风险犹存，华尔街的热情已然点燃。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">黑石的Jon Gray和贝莱德的Larry Fink均公开表示，旗下机构有意部署资本，以把握新建数据中心的庞大需求——这些数据中心将用于训练和运行最新的AI模型。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报道指出，另一位与英伟达合作的高管预测，GPU租赁将推动定价标准化，并为AI企业创造规模效益。他表示，随<strong>着&#34;人们逐渐摸清门道&#34;，公开债务市场的投资者最终也将进入这一领域，使该资产类别的流动性和可交易性得到提升。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">分析人士认为，这一进程的关键，在于市场能否就芯片的长期价值形成共识。<strong>如果英伟达的25%残值担保经受住市场检验，芯片租赁证券化或将成为继数据中心基础设施债务之后，AI投资浪潮催生的又一主流资产类别。但若AI需求出现降温、算力需求增速放缓，这场由黄仁勋主导的5000亿美元豪赌，将面临一次严峻的压力测试。</strong></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9c5631fb0269dc70e8608fa4fd976cf","relate_stocks":{"LU0128525929.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0957808578.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"ZU\" (USD) 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