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2021-09-28

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Why stocks could lose popularity as the market’s ‘presidential election cycle’ enters its second year<blockquote>为什么随着市场“总统选举周期”进入第二年，股市可能会失去人气</blockquote>

2021-12-02

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Weibo plans to price HK listing at HK$272.80 per share<blockquote>微博计划香港上市定价为每股272.80港元</blockquote>

2021-11-15

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2021-11-06

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2021-09-28

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2021-08-20

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2021-12-03

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2021-11-08

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2021-11-03

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2021-10-25

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pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607293477","repostId":"1102037947","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4141,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":607293834,"gmtCreate":1639540766121,"gmtModify":1639540766506,"author":{"id":"3582617881962608","authorId":"3582617881962608","name":"Ahsiang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/310f96e7696af85ae33ece774a483d15","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582617881962608","authorIdStr":"3582617881962608"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607293834","repostId":"1156446659","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156446659","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639540344,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1156446659?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-15 11:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Warren Buffett has grown Berkshire Hathaway's Apple stake to 50% of its entire equity portfolio and nearly a quarter of its $649 billion market cap<blockquote>Warren Buffett已将Berkshire Hathaway持有的苹果股份增至其全部股票投资组合的50%，占其6490亿美元市值的近四分之一</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156446659","media":"Business Insider","summary":"Berkshire Hathaway's Apple holdings of 887 million shares swelled to a value of $159 billion on Frid","content":"<p><ul>  <li><b>Berkshire Hathaway's Apple holdings of 887 million shares swelled to a value of $159 billion on Friday.</b></li>  <li><b>That makes the stake worth half of Berkshire's entire equity portfolio, and almost 25% of its $649 billion market capitalization.</b></li>  <li><b>Warren Buffett started to build Berkshire's position in Apple in 2016 and added to it up until mid-2018.</b></li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4348b5dc216a2be5e154d22e356336b9\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>SCOTT MORGAN/REUTERS</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>周五，Berkshire Hathaway持有的苹果8.87亿股股票价值增至1,590亿美元。</b></li><li><b>这使得这些股份价值占伯克希尔整个股票投资组合的一半，占其6490亿美元市值的近25%。</b></li><li><b>Warren Buffett于2016年开始建立Berkshire在苹果的头寸，并一直持续到2018年年中。</b></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>斯科特·摩根/路透社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Warren Buffett is known for concentrating his investments to build generational wealth, and&nbsp;Berkshire Hathaway's&nbsp;stake in&nbsp;Apple&nbsp;is no better example of that investment practice.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特以集中投资创造世代财富而闻名，伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司在苹果的股份就是这种投资实践的最好例子。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire's 887.1 million shares in the iPhone maker swelled to a record value of $159 billion on Friday, a 342% increase from its&nbsp;original cost basis of about $36 billion.That means Apple is now worth more than half of Berkshire's $293 billion equity portfolio, based on data from its third-quarter 13F filing.</p><p><blockquote>周五，伯克希尔持有这家iPhone制造商的8.871亿股股票价值飙升至创纪录的1,590亿美元，较其原始成本基础约360亿美元增长了342%。根据伯克希尔第三季度13F文件的数据，这意味着苹果目前的价值超过了伯克希尔2930亿美元股票投资组合的一半。</blockquote></p><p> And assuming Berkshire hasn't trimmed its Apple position since September 30, the equity stake now represents about a quarter of Berkshire Hathaway's $649 billion market capitalization.</p><p><blockquote>假设伯克希尔哈撒韦公司自9月30日以来没有削减其在苹果的头寸，那么这些股权目前约占伯克希尔哈撒韦公司6490亿美元市值的四分之一。</blockquote></p><p> What also makes Buffett's concentration in Apple notable is that it didn't take&nbsp;decades to compound&nbsp;like most successful investments managed by Buffett. Instead, it's only been five years since Berkshire began to build its stake in Apple.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特对苹果的专注也值得注意，因为它并不像巴菲特管理的大多数成功投资那样需要几十年的时间才能实现复利。相反，从Berkshire开始增持苹果股份到现在才五年。</blockquote></p><p> The conglomerate first purchased Apple shares in 2016 and continued buying them until mid-2018, when the position topped 1 billion shares after adjusting for a 4-for-1 stock split in 2020. Buffett has&nbsp;trimmed Berkshire's position in Apple&nbsp;by about 12% since initially building the stake.</p><p><blockquote>该集团于2016年首次购买了苹果股票，并一直购买到2018年中期，在对2020年4比1的股票分割进行调整后，该持仓量突破10亿股。自最初增持苹果股份以来，巴菲特已将其持有的股份削减了约12%。</blockquote></p><p> Barring any changes since the most recent 13F filing, Berkshire's stock portfolio would be up 13.9% quarter-to-date, according to&nbsp;an analysis by Bespoke.Much of that gain has been driven by Apple's quarter-to-date gain of more than 20%.</p><p><blockquote>根据Bespoke的分析，除非自最近一次13F备案以来发生任何变化，否则Berkshire的股票投资组合本季度迄今将上涨13.9%。这一涨幅很大程度上是由苹果本季度迄今超过20%的涨幅推动的。</blockquote></p><p> Year-to-date, Apple is up 31%, compared to Berkshire Hathaway's return of 26%. Apple's stock price was less than&nbsp;$1.00 away from hitting a $3 trillion valuation on Monday.</p><p><blockquote>今年迄今为止，苹果股价上涨了31%，而Berkshire Hathaway的回报率为26%。周一，苹果股价距离触及3万亿美元估值不到1.00美元。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire's three largest positions after Apple are&nbsp;Bank of America,American Express, and&nbsp;Coca-Cola, which make up a combined 30% of the equity portfolio's value. And Berkshire is still sitting on about $150 billion in cash that it has yet to put to work.</p><p><blockquote>继苹果之后，伯克希尔最大的三个持仓是美国银行、美国运通和可口可乐，它们合计占股票投资组合价值的30%。伯克希尔仍坐拥约1500亿美元现金尚未投入使用。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Warren Buffett has grown Berkshire Hathaway's Apple stake to 50% of its entire equity portfolio and nearly a quarter of its $649 billion market cap<blockquote>Warren Buffett已将Berkshire Hathaway持有的苹果股份增至其全部股票投资组合的50%，占其6490亿美元市值的近四分之一</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWarren Buffett has grown Berkshire Hathaway's Apple stake to 50% of its entire equity portfolio and nearly a quarter of its $649 billion market cap<blockquote>Warren Buffett已将Berkshire Hathaway持有的苹果股份增至其全部股票投资组合的50%，占其6490亿美元市值的近四分之一</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Business Insider</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-15 11:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><ul>  <li><b>Berkshire Hathaway's Apple holdings of 887 million shares swelled to a value of $159 billion on Friday.</b></li>  <li><b>That makes the stake worth half of Berkshire's entire equity portfolio, and almost 25% of its $649 billion market capitalization.</b></li>  <li><b>Warren Buffett started to build Berkshire's position in Apple in 2016 and added to it up until mid-2018.</b></li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4348b5dc216a2be5e154d22e356336b9\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>SCOTT MORGAN/REUTERS</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>周五，Berkshire Hathaway持有的苹果8.87亿股股票价值增至1,590亿美元。</b></li><li><b>这使得这些股份价值占伯克希尔整个股票投资组合的一半，占其6490亿美元市值的近25%。</b></li><li><b>Warren Buffett于2016年开始建立Berkshire在苹果的头寸，并一直持续到2018年年中。</b></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>斯科特·摩根/路透社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Warren Buffett is known for concentrating his investments to build generational wealth, and&nbsp;Berkshire Hathaway's&nbsp;stake in&nbsp;Apple&nbsp;is no better example of that investment practice.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特以集中投资创造世代财富而闻名，伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司在苹果的股份就是这种投资实践的最好例子。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire's 887.1 million shares in the iPhone maker swelled to a record value of $159 billion on Friday, a 342% increase from its&nbsp;original cost basis of about $36 billion.That means Apple is now worth more than half of Berkshire's $293 billion equity portfolio, based on data from its third-quarter 13F filing.</p><p><blockquote>周五，伯克希尔持有这家iPhone制造商的8.871亿股股票价值飙升至创纪录的1,590亿美元，较其原始成本基础约360亿美元增长了342%。根据伯克希尔第三季度13F文件的数据，这意味着苹果目前的价值超过了伯克希尔2930亿美元股票投资组合的一半。</blockquote></p><p> And assuming Berkshire hasn't trimmed its Apple position since September 30, the equity stake now represents about a quarter of Berkshire Hathaway's $649 billion market capitalization.</p><p><blockquote>假设伯克希尔哈撒韦公司自9月30日以来没有削减其在苹果的头寸，那么这些股权目前约占伯克希尔哈撒韦公司6490亿美元市值的四分之一。</blockquote></p><p> What also makes Buffett's concentration in Apple notable is that it didn't take&nbsp;decades to compound&nbsp;like most successful investments managed by Buffett. Instead, it's only been five years since Berkshire began to build its stake in Apple.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特对苹果的专注也值得注意，因为它并不像巴菲特管理的大多数成功投资那样需要几十年的时间才能实现复利。相反，从Berkshire开始增持苹果股份到现在才五年。</blockquote></p><p> The conglomerate first purchased Apple shares in 2016 and continued buying them until mid-2018, when the position topped 1 billion shares after adjusting for a 4-for-1 stock split in 2020. Buffett has&nbsp;trimmed Berkshire's position in Apple&nbsp;by about 12% since initially building the stake.</p><p><blockquote>该集团于2016年首次购买了苹果股票，并一直购买到2018年中期，在对2020年4比1的股票分割进行调整后，该持仓量突破10亿股。自最初增持苹果股份以来，巴菲特已将其持有的股份削减了约12%。</blockquote></p><p> Barring any changes since the most recent 13F filing, Berkshire's stock portfolio would be up 13.9% quarter-to-date, according to&nbsp;an analysis by Bespoke.Much of that gain has been driven by Apple's quarter-to-date gain of more than 20%.</p><p><blockquote>根据Bespoke的分析，除非自最近一次13F备案以来发生任何变化，否则Berkshire的股票投资组合本季度迄今将上涨13.9%。这一涨幅很大程度上是由苹果本季度迄今超过20%的涨幅推动的。</blockquote></p><p> Year-to-date, Apple is up 31%, compared to Berkshire Hathaway's return of 26%. Apple's stock price was less than&nbsp;$1.00 away from hitting a $3 trillion valuation on Monday.</p><p><blockquote>今年迄今为止，苹果股价上涨了31%，而Berkshire Hathaway的回报率为26%。周一，苹果股价距离触及3万亿美元估值不到1.00美元。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire's three largest positions after Apple are&nbsp;Bank of America,American Express, and&nbsp;Coca-Cola, which make up a combined 30% of the equity portfolio's value. And Berkshire is still sitting on about $150 billion in cash that it has yet to put to work.</p><p><blockquote>继苹果之后，伯克希尔最大的三个持仓是美国银行、美国运通和可口可乐，它们合计占股票投资组合价值的30%。伯克希尔仍坐拥约1500亿美元现金尚未投入使用。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-apple-stake-half-berkshire-hathaway-equity-portfolio-concentration-2021-12\">Business Insider</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BRK.A":"伯克希尔","AAPL":"苹果","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B"},"source_url":"https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-apple-stake-half-berkshire-hathaway-equity-portfolio-concentration-2021-12","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156446659","content_text":"Berkshire Hathaway's Apple holdings of 887 million shares swelled to a value of $159 billion on Friday.\nThat makes the stake worth half of Berkshire's entire equity portfolio, and almost 25% of its $649 billion market capitalization.\nWarren Buffett started to build Berkshire's position in Apple in 2016 and added to it up until mid-2018.\n\nSCOTT MORGAN/REUTERS\nWarren Buffett is known for concentrating his investments to build generational wealth, and Berkshire Hathaway's stake in Apple is no better example of that investment practice.\nBerkshire's 887.1 million shares in the iPhone maker swelled to a record value of $159 billion on Friday, a 342% increase from its original cost basis of about $36 billion.That means Apple is now worth more than half of Berkshire's $293 billion equity portfolio, based on data from its third-quarter 13F filing.\nAnd assuming Berkshire hasn't trimmed its Apple position since September 30, the equity stake now represents about a quarter of Berkshire Hathaway's $649 billion market capitalization.\nWhat also makes Buffett's concentration in Apple notable is that it didn't take decades to compound like most successful investments managed by Buffett. Instead, it's only been five years since Berkshire began to build its stake in Apple.\nThe conglomerate first purchased Apple shares in 2016 and continued buying them until mid-2018, when the position topped 1 billion shares after adjusting for a 4-for-1 stock split in 2020. Buffett has trimmed Berkshire's position in Apple by about 12% since initially building the stake.\nBarring any changes since the most recent 13F filing, Berkshire's stock portfolio would be up 13.9% quarter-to-date, according to an analysis by Bespoke.Much of that gain has been driven by Apple's quarter-to-date gain of more than 20%.\nYear-to-date, Apple is up 31%, compared to Berkshire Hathaway's return of 26%. Apple's stock price was less than $1.00 away from hitting a $3 trillion valuation on Monday.\nBerkshire's three largest positions after Apple are Bank of America,American Express, and Coca-Cola, which make up a combined 30% of the equity portfolio's value. And Berkshire is still sitting on about $150 billion in cash that it has yet to put to work.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.A":0.9,"BRK.B":0.9,"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2921,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":607018617,"gmtCreate":1639456492848,"gmtModify":1639456493188,"author":{"id":"3582617881962608","authorId":"3582617881962608","name":"Ahsiang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/310f96e7696af85ae33ece774a483d15","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582617881962608","authorIdStr":"3582617881962608"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pwr","listText":"Pwr","text":"Pwr","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607018617","repostId":"1174933722","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3545,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":607018813,"gmtCreate":1639456482439,"gmtModify":1639456482830,"author":{"id":"3582617881962608","authorId":"3582617881962608","name":"Ahsiang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/310f96e7696af85ae33ece774a483d15","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582617881962608","authorIdStr":"3582617881962608"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607018813","repostId":"2191841329","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2191841329","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1639452680,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2191841329?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-14 11:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Highly valued S&P 500 index is 'near the top of its 85-year trend channel,' says Deutsche Bank<blockquote>德意志银行表示，高估值的标普500指数“接近85年趋势通道的顶部”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2191841329","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"'Inflation has historically been neutral for earnings, but negative for multiples,' says a Deutsche ","content":"<p>'Inflation has historically been neutral for earnings, but negative for multiples,' says a Deutsche Bank report</p><p><blockquote>德意志银行的一份报告称，通胀历来对盈利呈中性，但对市盈率呈负值</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b7803ce34d9ebaddbf2c083be3d67a2\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>The S&amp;P 500 index closed at a record high on Dec. 10, 2021. Chris Hondros/Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>标普500指数于2021年12月10日收于历史新高。克里斯·洪德罗斯/盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500's \"extremely high\" historical valuation puts the index near the upper bound of a \"trend channel of price appreciation\" that spans more than eight decades, but the broad equity benchmark still could go higher, according to Deutsche Bank Research.</p><p><blockquote>德意志银行研究部表示，标普500“极高”的历史估值使该指数接近跨越八十多年的“价格升值趋势通道”的上限，但广泛的股票基准仍可能走高。</blockquote></p><p> The U.S. stock index is \"near the top of its 85-year trend channel,\" the bank's strategists wrote in a research report dated Dec. 10. \"It was only higher in the late 1930s and late 1990s, when it went above,\" a chart in the report shows.</p><p><blockquote>该行策略师在12月10日的一份研究报告中写道，美国股指“接近85年趋势通道的顶部”。报告中的一张图表显示：“只有在20世纪30年代末和90年代末才会更高，当时它才会上升。”</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d4fc2a69934ea51cf28c489fdfd23d4\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"423\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH REPORT DATED DEC. 10, 2021</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>德意志银行12月研究报告。10, 2021</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 closed Dec. 10 at a record high of 4,712.02 and is on track to gain more than 24% this year, according to FactSet data.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet数据显示，标普500 12月10日收于4,712.02点的历史新高，今年有望上涨24%以上。</blockquote></p><p> Deutsche Bank's strategists project the index will continue to climb next year, pointing to earnings growth and saying in their report that stock buybacks should help keep S&amp;P 500 returns strong, particularly in the first half of 2022. They have a price target of 5,250 for the S&amp;P 500 by the end of next year, according to their research note.</p><p><blockquote>德银策略师预计该指数明年将继续攀升，指出盈利增长，并在报告中表示，股票回购应有助于保持标普500的强劲回报，特别是在2022年上半年。根据他们的研究报告，到明年年底，标普500的目标价格为5,250英镑。</blockquote></p><p> Deutsche Bank Research is part of the investment banking division. Separately, the chief investment office of the bank's wealth-management division provided a 2022 outlook presentation on Dec. 6 that showed an S&amp;P 500 target of 5,000.</p><p><blockquote>德意志银行研究部是投资银行部门的一部分。另外，该银行财富管理部门首席投资办公室于12月6日提供了2022年展望报告，显示标普500目标为5,000人。</blockquote></p><p> \"For the S&amp;P 500, we see 10% earnings growth to $230 in 2022,\" according to the Deutsche Bank Research note dated Dec. 10, with the strategists referring to their earnings-per-share forecast.</p><p><blockquote>德意志银行12月10日的研究报告称，“对于标普500来说，我们预计2022年盈利将增长10%，达到230美元”，策略师们提到了他们的每股收益预测。</blockquote></p><p> \"Inflation has historically been neutral for earnings, but negative for multiples,\" they wrote, against the backdrop of a surge in the cost of living during the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>他们写道：“从历史上看，通胀对盈利来说是中性的，但对市盈率来说是负的。”在疫情期间生活成本飙升的背景下。</blockquote></p><p> Valuations for the S&amp;P 500 index are \"extremely high,\" according to the Deutsche Bank Research report. \"Equity valuations are in the 97-100th percentile on almost any metric excluding the 1990s tech bubble period and well into the 90s in percentile terms even including it,\" the strategists wrote.</p><p><blockquote>德银研究报告称，标普500指数的估值“极高”。策略师们写道：“几乎所有指标的股票估值都处于97-100个百分点，不包括20世纪90年代的科技泡沫时期，即使包括该时期，按百分位数计算也远远超过了90年代。”</blockquote></p><p> Their 2022 forecast for the S&amp;P 500 implies a trailing 12-month price-to earnings ratio of 22.8, the research report from Dec. 10 shows.</p><p><blockquote>12月10日的研究报告显示，他们对标普500 2022年的预测意味着过去12个月的市盈率为22.8。</blockquote></p><p> \"With earnings having already recovered to levels above trend that often marked cycle peaks and equity valuations historically high, the outlook for equities looks subject to a larger degree of uncertainty and a wider range of possible outcomes than is typical,\" the strategists cautioned.</p><p><blockquote>策略师警告称：“由于盈利已经恢复到高于趋势水平（通常标志着周期峰值和股票估值处于历史高位），股市前景看起来比通常情况下面临更大程度的不确定性和更广泛的可能结果。”</blockquote></p><p> U.S. stock indexes closed lower Monday, with S&amp;P 500 ending 0.9% lower, FactSet data show.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet数据显示，美国股指周一收低，标普500收盘下跌0.9%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Highly valued S&P 500 index is 'near the top of its 85-year trend channel,' says Deutsche Bank<blockquote>德意志银行表示，高估值的标普500指数“接近85年趋势通道的顶部”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHighly valued S&P 500 index is 'near the top of its 85-year trend channel,' says Deutsche Bank<blockquote>德意志银行表示，高估值的标普500指数“接近85年趋势通道的顶部”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-14 11:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>'Inflation has historically been neutral for earnings, but negative for multiples,' says a Deutsche Bank report</p><p><blockquote>德意志银行的一份报告称，通胀历来对盈利呈中性，但对市盈率呈负值</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b7803ce34d9ebaddbf2c083be3d67a2\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>The S&amp;P 500 index closed at a record high on Dec. 10, 2021. Chris Hondros/Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>标普500指数于2021年12月10日收于历史新高。克里斯·洪德罗斯/盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500's \"extremely high\" historical valuation puts the index near the upper bound of a \"trend channel of price appreciation\" that spans more than eight decades, but the broad equity benchmark still could go higher, according to Deutsche Bank Research.</p><p><blockquote>德意志银行研究部表示，标普500“极高”的历史估值使该指数接近跨越八十多年的“价格升值趋势通道”的上限，但广泛的股票基准仍可能走高。</blockquote></p><p> The U.S. stock index is \"near the top of its 85-year trend channel,\" the bank's strategists wrote in a research report dated Dec. 10. \"It was only higher in the late 1930s and late 1990s, when it went above,\" a chart in the report shows.</p><p><blockquote>该行策略师在12月10日的一份研究报告中写道，美国股指“接近85年趋势通道的顶部”。报告中的一张图表显示：“只有在20世纪30年代末和90年代末才会更高，当时它才会上升。”</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d4fc2a69934ea51cf28c489fdfd23d4\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"423\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH REPORT DATED DEC. 10, 2021</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>德意志银行12月研究报告。10, 2021</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 closed Dec. 10 at a record high of 4,712.02 and is on track to gain more than 24% this year, according to FactSet data.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet数据显示，标普500 12月10日收于4,712.02点的历史新高，今年有望上涨24%以上。</blockquote></p><p> Deutsche Bank's strategists project the index will continue to climb next year, pointing to earnings growth and saying in their report that stock buybacks should help keep S&amp;P 500 returns strong, particularly in the first half of 2022. They have a price target of 5,250 for the S&amp;P 500 by the end of next year, according to their research note.</p><p><blockquote>德银策略师预计该指数明年将继续攀升，指出盈利增长，并在报告中表示，股票回购应有助于保持标普500的强劲回报，特别是在2022年上半年。根据他们的研究报告，到明年年底，标普500的目标价格为5,250英镑。</blockquote></p><p> Deutsche Bank Research is part of the investment banking division. Separately, the chief investment office of the bank's wealth-management division provided a 2022 outlook presentation on Dec. 6 that showed an S&amp;P 500 target of 5,000.</p><p><blockquote>德意志银行研究部是投资银行部门的一部分。另外，该银行财富管理部门首席投资办公室于12月6日提供了2022年展望报告，显示标普500目标为5,000人。</blockquote></p><p> \"For the S&amp;P 500, we see 10% earnings growth to $230 in 2022,\" according to the Deutsche Bank Research note dated Dec. 10, with the strategists referring to their earnings-per-share forecast.</p><p><blockquote>德意志银行12月10日的研究报告称，“对于标普500来说，我们预计2022年盈利将增长10%，达到230美元”，策略师们提到了他们的每股收益预测。</blockquote></p><p> \"Inflation has historically been neutral for earnings, but negative for multiples,\" they wrote, against the backdrop of a surge in the cost of living during the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>他们写道：“从历史上看，通胀对盈利来说是中性的，但对市盈率来说是负的。”在疫情期间生活成本飙升的背景下。</blockquote></p><p> Valuations for the S&amp;P 500 index are \"extremely high,\" according to the Deutsche Bank Research report. \"Equity valuations are in the 97-100th percentile on almost any metric excluding the 1990s tech bubble period and well into the 90s in percentile terms even including it,\" the strategists wrote.</p><p><blockquote>德银研究报告称，标普500指数的估值“极高”。策略师们写道：“几乎所有指标的股票估值都处于97-100个百分点，不包括20世纪90年代的科技泡沫时期，即使包括该时期，按百分位数计算也远远超过了90年代。”</blockquote></p><p> Their 2022 forecast for the S&amp;P 500 implies a trailing 12-month price-to earnings ratio of 22.8, the research report from Dec. 10 shows.</p><p><blockquote>12月10日的研究报告显示，他们对标普500 2022年的预测意味着过去12个月的市盈率为22.8。</blockquote></p><p> \"With earnings having already recovered to levels above trend that often marked cycle peaks and equity valuations historically high, the outlook for equities looks subject to a larger degree of uncertainty and a wider range of possible outcomes than is typical,\" the strategists cautioned.</p><p><blockquote>策略师警告称：“由于盈利已经恢复到高于趋势水平（通常标志着周期峰值和股票估值处于历史高位），股市前景看起来比通常情况下面临更大程度的不确定性和更广泛的可能结果。”</blockquote></p><p> U.S. stock indexes closed lower Monday, with S&amp;P 500 ending 0.9% lower, FactSet data show.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet数据显示，美国股指周一收低，标普500收盘下跌0.9%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/highly-valued-s-p-500-index-is-near-the-top-of-its-85-year-trend-channel-says-deutsche-bank-11639432105?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","DB":"德意志银行","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4118":"综合性资本市场","BK4566":"资本集团","SPY":"标普500ETF","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/highly-valued-s-p-500-index-is-near-the-top-of-its-85-year-trend-channel-says-deutsche-bank-11639432105?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2191841329","content_text":"'Inflation has historically been neutral for earnings, but negative for multiples,' says a Deutsche Bank report\nThe S&P 500 index closed at a record high on Dec. 10, 2021. Chris Hondros/Getty Images\nThe S&P 500's \"extremely high\" historical valuation puts the index near the upper bound of a \"trend channel of price appreciation\" that spans more than eight decades, but the broad equity benchmark still could go higher, according to Deutsche Bank Research.\nThe U.S. stock index is \"near the top of its 85-year trend channel,\" the bank's strategists wrote in a research report dated Dec. 10. \"It was only higher in the late 1930s and late 1990s, when it went above,\" a chart in the report shows.\nDEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH REPORT DATED DEC. 10, 2021\nThe S&P 500 closed Dec. 10 at a record high of 4,712.02 and is on track to gain more than 24% this year, according to FactSet data.\nDeutsche Bank's strategists project the index will continue to climb next year, pointing to earnings growth and saying in their report that stock buybacks should help keep S&P 500 returns strong, particularly in the first half of 2022. They have a price target of 5,250 for the S&P 500 by the end of next year, according to their research note.\nDeutsche Bank Research is part of the investment banking division. Separately, the chief investment office of the bank's wealth-management division provided a 2022 outlook presentation on Dec. 6 that showed an S&P 500 target of 5,000.\n\"For the S&P 500, we see 10% earnings growth to $230 in 2022,\" according to the Deutsche Bank Research note dated Dec. 10, with the strategists referring to their earnings-per-share forecast.\n\"Inflation has historically been neutral for earnings, but negative for multiples,\" they wrote, against the backdrop of a surge in the cost of living during the pandemic.\nValuations for the S&P 500 index are \"extremely high,\" according to the Deutsche Bank Research report. \"Equity valuations are in the 97-100th percentile on almost any metric excluding the 1990s tech bubble period and well into the 90s in percentile terms even including it,\" the strategists wrote.\nTheir 2022 forecast for the S&P 500 implies a trailing 12-month price-to earnings ratio of 22.8, the research report from Dec. 10 shows.\n\"With earnings having already recovered to levels above trend that often marked cycle peaks and equity valuations historically high, the outlook for equities looks subject to a larger degree of uncertainty and a wider range of possible outcomes than is typical,\" the strategists cautioned.\nU.S. stock indexes closed lower Monday, with S&P 500 ending 0.9% lower, FactSet data show.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"OEX":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SH":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"DB":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"SSO":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4128,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":607018112,"gmtCreate":1639456472050,"gmtModify":1639456472458,"author":{"id":"3582617881962608","authorId":"3582617881962608","name":"Ahsiang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/310f96e7696af85ae33ece774a483d15","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582617881962608","authorIdStr":"3582617881962608"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607018112","repostId":"2191098756","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2191098756","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1639453031,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2191098756?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-14 11:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Honeywell To Acquire US Digital Designs For Undisclosed Sum<blockquote>霍尼韦尔将收购美国数字设计公司，收购金额未公开</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2191098756","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Honeywell International Inc (NASDAQ: HON) agreed to acquire privately-held US Digital Designs, Inc.,","content":"<p><ul>  <li><b>Honeywell International Inc</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ: HON)&nbsp;agreed to acquire privately-held US Digital Designs,&nbsp;Inc., for a purchase multiple of ~14X EBITDA in an all-cash transaction. Deal terms not disclosed.</li>  <li>Tempe, Arizona-based US Digital Designs delivers alerting and dispatch communications solutions, enhancing first responders' efficacy and enabling faster emergency response times.</li>  <li>US Digital Designs' EBITDA margins are accretive to Honeywell. Honeywell expects to achieve a greater than 25% return on investment by the fifth year.</li>  <li>Honeywell anticipates integrating the US Digital Designs into the Fire and Connected Life Safety systems business and expanding the line of solutions for public safety communications.</li>  <li>\"Integrating US Digital Designs' fire station alerting capabilities with Honeywell's Connected Life Safety Services will allow us to eliminate manual processes and significantly reduce response time,\" said Doug Wright, CEO of Honeywell Building Technologies.</li>  <li>Honeywell held&nbsp;cash and cash equivalents of .1 billion&nbsp;as of September 30, 2021.</li>  <li>This acquisition does not affect Honeywell's financial guidance and is expected to close in 1Q22.</li>  <li><b>Price Action:</b>&nbsp;HON shares closed lower by 0.28% at $209.23 on&nbsp;Monday.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>霍尼韦尔国际公司</b>（纳斯达克：HON）同意在全现金交易中以约14倍EBITDA的购买倍数收购私人控股的美国数字设计公司。交易条款未披露。</li><li>总部位于亚利桑那州坦佩的US Digital Designs提供警报和调度通信解决方案，提高急救人员的效率并加快应急响应时间。</li><li>US Digital Designs的EBITDA利润率为霍尼韦尔带来了增值。霍尼韦尔预计到第五年将实现超过25%的投资回报率。</li><li>霍尼韦尔预计将把美国数字设计整合到消防和互联生命安全系统业务中，并扩大公共安全通信的解决方案系列。</li><li>霍尼韦尔建筑技术公司首席执行官Doug Wright表示：“将US Digital Designs的消防站警报功能与霍尼韦尔的互联生命安全服务相结合，将使我们能够消除手动流程并显着缩短响应时间。”</li><li>截至2021年9月30日，霍尼韦尔持有现金及现金等价物为10亿美元。</li><li>此次收购不影响Honeywell的财务指引，预计将在2022年第一季度完成交易。</li><li><b>价格走势：</b>HON股价周一收盘下跌0.28%，至209.23美元。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Honeywell To Acquire US Digital Designs For Undisclosed Sum<blockquote>霍尼韦尔将收购美国数字设计公司，收购金额未公开</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHoneywell To Acquire US Digital Designs For Undisclosed Sum<blockquote>霍尼韦尔将收购美国数字设计公司，收购金额未公开</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-14 11:37</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><ul>  <li><b>Honeywell International Inc</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ: HON)&nbsp;agreed to acquire privately-held US Digital Designs,&nbsp;Inc., for a purchase multiple of ~14X EBITDA in an all-cash transaction. Deal terms not disclosed.</li>  <li>Tempe, Arizona-based US Digital Designs delivers alerting and dispatch communications solutions, enhancing first responders' efficacy and enabling faster emergency response times.</li>  <li>US Digital Designs' EBITDA margins are accretive to Honeywell. Honeywell expects to achieve a greater than 25% return on investment by the fifth year.</li>  <li>Honeywell anticipates integrating the US Digital Designs into the Fire and Connected Life Safety systems business and expanding the line of solutions for public safety communications.</li>  <li>\"Integrating US Digital Designs' fire station alerting capabilities with Honeywell's Connected Life Safety Services will allow us to eliminate manual processes and significantly reduce response time,\" said Doug Wright, CEO of Honeywell Building Technologies.</li>  <li>Honeywell held&nbsp;cash and cash equivalents of .1 billion&nbsp;as of September 30, 2021.</li>  <li>This acquisition does not affect Honeywell's financial guidance and is expected to close in 1Q22.</li>  <li><b>Price Action:</b>&nbsp;HON shares closed lower by 0.28% at $209.23 on&nbsp;Monday.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>霍尼韦尔国际公司</b>（纳斯达克：HON）同意在全现金交易中以约14倍EBITDA的购买倍数收购私人控股的美国数字设计公司。交易条款未披露。</li><li>总部位于亚利桑那州坦佩的US Digital Designs提供警报和调度通信解决方案，提高急救人员的效率并加快应急响应时间。</li><li>US Digital Designs的EBITDA利润率为霍尼韦尔带来了增值。霍尼韦尔预计到第五年将实现超过25%的投资回报率。</li><li>霍尼韦尔预计将把美国数字设计整合到消防和互联生命安全系统业务中，并扩大公共安全通信的解决方案系列。</li><li>霍尼韦尔建筑技术公司首席执行官Doug Wright表示：“将US Digital Designs的消防站警报功能与霍尼韦尔的互联生命安全服务相结合，将使我们能够消除手动流程并显着缩短响应时间。”</li><li>截至2021年9月30日，霍尼韦尔持有现金及现金等价物为10亿美元。</li><li>此次收购不影响Honeywell的财务指引，预计将在2022年第一季度完成交易。</li><li><b>价格走势：</b>HON股价周一收盘下跌0.28%，至209.23美元。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4084":"特种房地产投资信托","BK4529":"IDC概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","HON":"霍尼韦尔","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","DLR":"数字房地产信托公司","BK4206":"工业集团企业"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2191098756","content_text":"Honeywell International Inc (NASDAQ: HON) agreed to acquire privately-held US Digital Designs, Inc., for a purchase multiple of ~14X EBITDA in an all-cash transaction. Deal terms not disclosed.\nTempe, Arizona-based US Digital Designs delivers alerting and dispatch communications solutions, enhancing first responders' efficacy and enabling faster emergency response times.\nUS Digital Designs' EBITDA margins are accretive to Honeywell. Honeywell expects to achieve a greater than 25% return on investment by the fifth year.\nHoneywell anticipates integrating the US Digital Designs into the Fire and Connected Life Safety systems business and expanding the line of solutions for public safety communications.\n\"Integrating US Digital Designs' fire station alerting capabilities with Honeywell's Connected Life Safety Services will allow us to eliminate manual processes and significantly reduce response time,\" said Doug Wright, CEO of Honeywell Building Technologies.\nHoneywell held cash and cash equivalents of .1 billion as of September 30, 2021.\nThis acquisition does not affect Honeywell's financial guidance and is expected to close in 1Q22.\nPrice Action: HON shares closed lower by 0.28% at $209.23 on Monday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DLR":0.9,"HON":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4144,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":607018333,"gmtCreate":1639456451982,"gmtModify":1639464825696,"author":{"id":"3582617881962608","authorId":"3582617881962608","name":"Ahsiang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/310f96e7696af85ae33ece774a483d15","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582617881962608","authorIdStr":"3582617881962608"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Shut up","listText":"Shut up","text":"Shut up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607018333","repostId":"1120286910","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120286910","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639453388,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1120286910?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-14 11:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"PayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks<blockquote>PayPal最近的价格下跌最终将发生在几乎所有被高估的科技股身上</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120286910","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.\nI wa","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>PayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.</li>  <li>I warned investors back in February of 2021 that PayPal was extremely overvalued and worth selling.</li>  <li>That warning could have been issued for dozens and dozens of overvalued technology stocks that still have over -50% downside from here within the next 3 years.</li>  <li>PayPal remains a great company that I would like to own, so I analyze the stock in order to establish I price at which I'd be willing to buy it.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/847095b0be294275f55f7e8f700d56b4\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1229\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>BsWei/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>PayPal股价较今年高点下跌超过-35%，而且该股仍然不便宜。</li><li>我早在2021年2月就警告投资者，PayPal的估值被严重高估，值得出售。</li><li>这一警告可能是针对数十只被高估的科技股发出的，这些股在未来3年内仍有超过-50%的下跌空间。</li><li>PayPal仍然是一家我想拥有的伟大公司，因此我分析该股票以确定我愿意购买它的价格。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>BsWei/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Back on February 6th, 2021, I made a video where I shared with investors why PayPal (PYPL) stock was overvalued enough to sell. I shared that video on my Seeking Alpha bloghere. Since that time, PayPal has performed poorly both on an absolute basis and relative to the S&amp;P 500 (SPY).</p><p><blockquote>早在2021年2月6日，我就制作了一段视频，与投资者分享了为什么PayPal(PYPL)股票被高估到足以出售。我在我的Seeking Alpha bloghere上分享了该视频。自那时以来，PayPal的绝对表现和相对于标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）的表现都很差。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8252b7218af36cce8b5a591f56abaecd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The stock price is down about -30% since I warned investors and down about -38% off its high price of the year.</p><p><blockquote>自从我向投资者发出警告以来，该股股价已下跌约-30%，较今年的高点下跌约-38%。</blockquote></p><p> The truth is that I could have issued the same warning about many other technology stocks that had become overvalued, but PayPal was one that I actually wanted to buy if the price ever fell to a reasonable level. It was a case where there was absolutely nothing wrong with the company. There was no bad story to tell. The price had simply gotten insanely overvalued. It didn't matter how good the story around PayPal was back in February. Numbers almost always trump narrative over the long-term. And the numbers back then didn't make sense.</p><p><blockquote>事实是，我本可以对许多其他被高估的科技股发出同样的警告，但如果价格跌至合理水平，我实际上想买入PayPal。这是一个公司绝对没有问题的案例。没有什么不好的故事可讲。这个价格被高估了。二月份围绕PayPal的故事有多好并不重要。从长远来看，数字几乎总是胜过叙事。当时的数字没有意义。</blockquote></p><p> This should be an important lesson for medium and long-term investors. If the numbers don't work, it doesn't matter what the story is.</p><p><blockquote>这应该是中长线投资者的重要一课。如果数字不起作用，故事是什么并不重要。</blockquote></p><p> The difficultly for a stock writer like myself is that investors<i>love</i>narratives and stories. It's not our fault. Our human brains are hardwired that way. Since I shared my bearish February PayPal video, out of 62 articles on Seeking Alpha covering PayPal, there hasn't been a single \"Bearish\" article written. The primary reason for that is because PayPal's narrative was so appealing that valuation numbers were either ignored, or the assumptions around the numbers were not realistic.</p><p><blockquote>对于像我这样的股票作家来说，困难的是投资者<i>爱</i>叙事和故事。这不是我们的错。我们人类的大脑天生就是这样。自从我分享了我看跌的2月份PayPal视频以来，Seeking Alpha上报道PayPal的62篇文章中，没有一篇“看跌”文章。主要原因是PayPal的叙述如此吸引人，以至于估值数字要么被忽视，要么围绕这些数字的假设不现实。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, I'm going to share my current PayPal valuation based on earnings and earnings growth projections. I'll also share what I consider to be a fair value range for PayPal stock, and the price I would be looking to buy with a margin of safety. This is the same basic process I used to determine that PayPal stock was overvalued back in February of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>在本文中，我将分享我目前基于盈利和盈利增长预测的PayPal估值。我还将分享我认为PayPal股票的公允价值范围，以及我希望在安全边际的情况下购买的价格。这与我在2021年2月用来确定PayPal股票被高估的基本过程相同。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>全周期盈利分析</b></blockquote></p><p> As part of the analysis, I calculate what I consider to be the two main drivers of future total returns: Market sentiment returns and business returns. I then combine those expected returns together in the form of a 10-year CAGR expectation and use that to value the stock.</p><p><blockquote>作为分析的一部分，我计算了我认为未来总回报的两个主要驱动因素：市场情绪回报和商业回报。然后，我将这些预期回报以10年复合年增长率预期的形式组合在一起，并用它来评估股票。</blockquote></p><p> Before I begin this analysis, I always check the business's long-term earnings patterns in order to ensure that the business is a proper fit for this sort of analysis. If the historical earnings 1) don't have a long enough history 2) are erratic in nature, or 3) are too cyclical, then I either avoid analyzing the stock altogether or I use a different type of analysis that is more appropriate.</p><p><blockquote>在我开始这种分析之前，我总是检查企业的长期盈利模式，以确保企业适合这种分析。如果历史收益1）没有足够长的历史2）本质上不稳定，或者3）周期性太强，那么我要么完全避免分析股票，要么使用更合适的不同类型的分析。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70078307e65a5a1d0e37f9e70b726b77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We can see that since 2015 PayPal's earnings per share have increased every single year. This is a clear secular growth pattern and it makes the stock very attractive as a long-term investment. Since 2015 there haven't been any negative earnings growth years so the stock is likely a good fit for the type of earnings analysis I'm going to perform. One important question to ask, though, is that while we did have a brief recession in 2020, it was a very unusual one. It's possible that PayPal's business could be more economically sensitive during a longer, more drawn-out recession. So, that is a risk. However, when I examined how eBay (EBAY) performed in the 2008/9 recession, its earnings growth was basically flat, and never went negative. If I had to make a guess, I think PayPal's earnings growth rate would probably decline during a \"normal\" recession, but still wouldn't be especially cyclical. For those reasons, I'm going to go ahead with my Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis even though we don't have hard historical data from \"normal\" recession for PayPal.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以看到，自2015年以来，PayPal的每股收益每年都在增长。这是一个明显的长期增长模式，它使该股票作为长期投资非常有吸引力。自2015年以来，没有出现过任何盈利负增长的年份，因此该股票可能非常适合我将要进行的盈利分析类型。不过，要问的一个重要问题是，虽然我们在2020年确实经历了短暂的衰退，但这是一次非常不寻常的衰退。在更长、更持久的经济衰退期间，PayPal的业务可能会对经济更加敏感。所以，这是一个风险。然而，当我考察eBay(EBAY)在2008/9年经济衰退中的表现时，其盈利增长基本持平，从未出现过负增长。如果让我猜测的话，我认为PayPal的盈利增长率可能会在“正常”衰退期间下降，但仍然不会特别具有周期性。出于这些原因，尽管我们没有PayPal“正常”衰退的硬历史数据，但我仍将继续进行全周期盈利分析。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market Sentiment Return Expectations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场情绪回归预期</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In order to estimate what sort of returns we might expect over the next 10 years, let's begin by examining what return we could expect 10 years from now if the P/E multiple were to revert to its mean from the previous economic cycle. Since we have had a recent recession (albeit an unusual one) I'm starting this cycle in fiscal year 2015 and running it through 2021's estimates.</p><p><blockquote>为了估计未来10年我们可能预期的回报，让我们首先研究一下，如果市盈率倍数恢复到上一个经济周期的平均值，我们从现在起10年后可以预期的回报。由于我们最近经历了一次衰退（尽管是一次不寻常的衰退），我将在2015财年开始这个周期，并通过2021年的估计运行它。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e36d2c3455962a02d96b8c88c32eadce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> PayPal's average P/E from 2015 to the present has been a healthy 34.11 (the blue bar circled in gold on the FAST Graph). Using 2021's forward earnings estimates of $4.60 (also circled in gold), PayPal has a current P/E of 40.73. If that 40.73 P/E were to revert to the average P/E of 34.11 over the course of the next 10 years and everything else was held the same, PayPal's price would fall and it would produce a 10-Year CAGR of<b>-1.75%</b>. That's the annual return we can expect from sentiment mean reversion if it takes ten years to revert. If it takes less time to revert, the price could fall faster.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal从2015年至今的平均市盈率为34.11（快速图上用金色圈出的蓝色条）。使用2021年4.60美元的预期盈利预测（也用金色圈出），PayPal目前的市盈率为40.73。如果40.73市盈率在未来10年恢复到34.11的平均市盈率，而其他条件保持不变，PayPal的股价将会下跌，10年复合年增长率将为<b>-1.75%</b>如果情绪回归需要十年时间，这就是我们可以从情绪均值回归中预期的年回报率。如果恢复所需的时间更短，价格可能会下跌得更快。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Earnings Expectations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>业务盈利预期</b></blockquote></p><p> We previously examined what would happen if market sentiment reverted to the mean. This is entirely determined by the mood of the market and is quite often disconnected, or only loosely connected, to the performance of the actual business. In this section, we will examine the actual earnings of the business. The goal here is simple: We want to know how much money we would earn (expressed in the form of a CAGR %) over the course of 10 years if we bought the business at today's prices and kept all of the earnings for ourselves.</p><p><blockquote>我们之前研究了如果市场情绪恢复到均值会发生什么。这完全由市场情绪决定，并且通常与实际业务的表现脱节，或者只是松散地联系在一起。在本节中，我们将检查企业的实际收益。这里的目标很简单：我们想知道如果我们以今天的价格收购企业并将所有收益留给自己，我们在10年内会赚多少钱（以CAGR%的形式表示）。</blockquote></p><p> There are two main components of this: the first is the earnings yield and the second is the rate at which the earnings can be expected to grow. Let's start with the earnings yield (which is an inverted P/E ratio, so, the Earnings/Price ratio). The current earnings yield is about +2.46%. The way I like to think about this is, if I bought the company's whole business right now for $100, I would earn $2.46 per year on my investment if earnings remained the same for the next 10 years.</p><p><blockquote>这有两个主要组成部分：第一个是收益收益率，第二个是收益的预期增长率。让我们从收益率（这是一个倒置的市盈率，因此，市盈率）开始。目前的收益率约为+2.46%。我喜欢思考这个问题的方式是，如果我现在以100美元购买公司的整个业务，如果未来10年收益保持不变，我每年的投资将获得2.46美元。</blockquote></p><p> The next step is to estimate the company's earnings growth during this time period. I do that by figuring out at what rate earnings grew during the last cycle and applying that rate to the next 10 years. This involves calculating the EPS growth rate since 2015, taking into account each year's EPS growth or decline, and then backing out any share buybacks that occurred over that time period (because reducing shares will increase the EPS due to fewer shares).</p><p><blockquote>下一步是估计公司在这段时间内的盈利增长。我通过计算上一个周期的收益增长率并将该增长率应用于未来10年来做到这一点。这涉及计算自2015年以来的每股收益增长率，考虑每年的每股收益增长或下降，然后退出该时期发生的任何股票回购（因为减持股票会因股票减少而增加每股收益）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f31b7d8ed5f59c82c2531cc686324d1a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Due to the scale of the graph, the buybacks look much bigger than they actually are, and there isn't much to adjust here. Additionally, since PayPal has grown earnings every year there are no earnings growth declines to adjust for either. This makes estimating PayPal's earnings growth a relatively straightforward affair, and I estimate PayPal's earnings growth at about +23.65%.</p><p><blockquote>由于图表的规模，回购看起来比实际要大得多，这里没有太多调整。此外，由于PayPal的盈利每年都在增长，因此无需调整盈利增长下降。这使得估计PayPal的盈利增长变得相对简单，我估计PayPal的盈利增长约为+23.65%。</blockquote></p><p> Now, this is the point where my conservatism when it comes to asking myself \"What is a reasonable expectation, for valuation purposes, going forward 10 years?\" It is very, very difficult for businesses to grow earnings over 20% per year for a full decade (particularly if they have already been doing that the previous decade). For that reason, I cap all of my long-term forward earnings growth estimates when using them for valuation purposes at 20%. This is simply a way to help keep me from overpaying for a stock when their P/E multiple is likely to contract over time. So, for this valuation exercise, I am limiting my earnings growth assumption to 20%.</p><p><blockquote>现在，当我问自己“出于估值目的，未来10年的合理预期是什么？”对于企业来说，在整整十年的时间里，收入每年增长超过20%是非常非常困难的（特别是如果他们在过去十年里已经这样做了）。因此，在用于估值目的时，我将所有长期预期盈利增长预测限制在20%。当股票的市盈率可能会随着时间的推移而收缩时，这只是一种帮助我避免为股票支付过高价格的方法。因此，对于这次估值工作，我将盈利增长假设限制在20%。</blockquote></p><p> Next, I'll apply that growth rate to current earnings, looking forward 10 years in order to get a final 10-year CAGR estimate. The way I think about this is, if I bought PayPal's whole business for $100, it would pay me back $2.46 plus +20.00% growth the first year, and that amount would grow at +20.00% per year for 10 years after that. I want to know how much money I would have in total at the end of 10 years on my $100 investment, which I calculate to be about $176.50 (including the original $100). When I plug that growth into a CAGR calculator, that translates to a<b>+5.85%</b>10-year CAGR estimate for the expected business earnings returns.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我将将该增长率应用于当前收益，展望10年，以获得最终的10年复合年增长率估计。我的想法是，如果我以100美元收购PayPal的整个业务，它将在第一年偿还我2.46美元，外加+20.00%的增长，并且在那之后的10年里，这个数额将以每年+20.00%的速度增长。我想知道我的100美元投资在10年后总共会有多少钱，我计算出大约是176.50美元（包括最初的100美元）。当我将这种增长插入CAGR计算器时，就会转化为<b>+5.85%</b>预期业务盈利回报的10年复合年增长率估计。</blockquote></p><p> <b>10-Year, Full-Cycle CAGR Estimate</b></p><p><blockquote><b>10年全周期复合年增长率估计</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Potential future returns can come from two main places: market sentiment returns or business earnings returns. If we assume that market sentiment reverts to the mean from the last cycle over the next 10 years for PayPal, it will produce a -1.75% CAGR. If the earnings yield and growth are similar to the last cycle, the company should produce somewhere around a +5.85% 10-year CAGR. If we put the two together, we get an expected 10-year, full-cycle CAGR of<b>+4.10%</b>at today's price.</p><p><blockquote>潜在的未来回报可以来自两个主要地方：市场情绪回报或业务收益回报。如果我们假设PayPal未来10年的市场情绪恢复到上一个周期的平均值，则复合年增长率将为-1.75%。如果盈利收益率和增长与上一个周期相似，该公司的10年复合年增长率应该在+5.85%左右。如果我们将两者放在一起，我们会得到预期的10年全周期复合年增长率为<b>+4.10%</b>以今天的价格。</blockquote></p><p> My Buy/Sell/Hold range for this category of stocks is: above a 12% CAGR is a Buy, below a 4% expected CAGR is a Sell, and in between 4% and 12% is a Hold. This puts PayPal stock just barely into the \"Hold\" category at today's price level.</p><p><blockquote>我对此类股票的买入/卖出/持有范围是：复合年增长率高于12%为买入，预期复合年增长率低于4%为卖出，4%至12%之间为持有。这使得PayPal股票在今天的价格水平上勉强属于“持有”类别。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Additional Considerations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>其他注意事项</b></blockquote></p><p> I consider PayPal one of the highest quality growth stocks in the market right now, which is why I've been monitoring its valuation relatively closely. In this section I'm going to share my fair value range for PayPal along with the price I would be willing to buy the stock with a margin of safety based on earnings, and also the price I would consider buying using a more aggressive and less conservative valuation approach. So, I'm going to look at PayPal's valuation from a variety of different perspectives to give us a clearer view of what might be an appropriate price to pay for the stock.</p><p><blockquote>我认为PayPal是目前市场上质量最高的成长型股票之一，这就是为什么我一直相对密切地关注其估值。在本节中，我将分享我对PayPal的公允价值范围，以及我愿意在基于收益的安全边际下购买该股票的价格，以及我考虑使用更激进和不太保守的估值方法购买的价格。因此，我将从各种不同的角度来看PayPal的估值，让我们更清楚地了解购买该股票的合适价格。</blockquote></p><p> First, I'll start with my buy price and fair value range using the same assumptions and inputs I used in this article. If we use all of those same inputs my current fair value range for PayPal is about $126.50 to $164.00 per share. My current buy price that includes a margin of safety is $112.10. Investors who buy below that price have very good odds of great returns over the medium-term with the stock.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我将使用本文中使用的相同假设和输入从我的购买价格和公允价值范围开始。如果我们使用所有这些相同的输入，我目前对PayPal的公允价值范围约为每股126.50美元至164.00美元。我目前的买入价格（包括安全边际）是112.10美元。低于该价格买入的投资者在中期内很有可能获得丰厚的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Once we get into the new year and 2022, I'll start pulling forward PayPal's 2022 earnings for my estimates. Right now, analysts expect $5.25 per share from earnings in 2022. That will improve PayPal's valuation a lot if the rest of their metrics remain the same, and it would raise their fair value range up to $145.00 to $187.50 dollars per share with a margin of safety buy price at $128.00 per share. This, of course, assumes analysts keep their estimates for 2022 in place and don't lower them over the next couple of months. It also means, based on future earnings, that in a month or two if PayPal keeps trading near its current price, it is already in the top end of a \"fair value\" price range. This might be a further reason for current owners to keep holding.</p><p><blockquote>一旦我们进入新的一年和2022年，我将开始提前预测PayPal 2022年的盈利。目前，分析师预计2022年每股收益为5.25美元。如果PayPal的其他指标保持不变，这将大大提高其估值，并将其公允价值范围提高至每股145.00美元至187.50美元，安全买入价格为每股128.00美元。当然，这是假设分析师维持对2022年的预期不变，并且在未来几个月内不会降低预期。这也意味着，根据未来的收益，如果PayPal在一两个月内保持接近当前价格的交易，它已经处于“公允价值”价格范围的上限。这可能是当前所有者继续持有的另一个原因。</blockquote></p><p> The Full-Cycle Earnings analysis I used in this article is not the only type of analysis I use. For certain rare businesses with fast profit growth dynamics, I recently developed a new analysis to help identify fast-growing businesses that might never become cheap enough to buy based on earnings alone. The methods of this analysis are exclusive to my private service, The Cyclical Investor's Club, but since PayPal's profit growth is very strong, it actually qualifies for this type of analysis, too, and I thought I would at least share the sort of \"buy price\" that analysis produces because it's a little more aggressive than the earnings-based analysis.</p><p><blockquote>我在本文中使用的全周期收益分析并不是我使用的唯一分析类型。对于某些利润快速增长的罕见企业，我最近开发了一种新的分析方法，以帮助识别仅根据收益可能永远不会变得足够便宜的快速增长企业。这种分析的方法是我的私人服务机构周期性投资者俱乐部独有的，但由于PayPal的利润增长非常强劲，它实际上也有资格进行这种类型的分析，我想我至少会分享这种分析产生的“购买价格”，因为它比基于收益的分析更激进一些。</blockquote></p><p> When I examine PayPal using the profit growth analysis, it produces a buy price of $144.90. I find that interesting because if profits keep growing this quarter that price is likely to rise a little bit and put it pretty close to the middle of fair value using next year's earnings using my earnings-based method. This assumes that PayPal's metrics don't deteriorate between now and then, and there would be some technical requirements PayPal would have to meet as well, but I think the odds are good that by February of 2022 I could be a buyer of PayPal stock, approximately one year after I warned investors about its high valuation. It's going to be very interesting to see how it turns out.</p><p><blockquote>当我使用利润增长分析来检查PayPal时，它得出的买入价格为144.90美元。我觉得这很有趣，因为如果本季度利润继续增长，价格可能会上涨一点，并使用我的基于收益的方法，使用明年的收益，使其非常接近公允价值的中间值。这是假设PayPal的指标从现在到那时不会恶化，而且PayPal也必须满足一些技术要求，但我认为到2022年2月，我很有可能成为PayPal股票的买家，大约在我警告投资者其高估值一年后。看看结果会很有趣。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> I think PayPal's 2021 decline is an interesting and useful case study that goes beyond PayPal itself. The sort of decline we've seen in PayPal's stock price this year was entirely predictable and there are many other richly valued technology stocks that will experience a similar decline, likely in 2022 for most of them. For investors who are overweight these types of stocks, now is probably a time to consider diversifying in order to help keep the gains they have experienced the past couple of years. While there will be some overvalued stocks that simply stagnate for several years and go nowhere, and a rare few that manage to keep rising, the vast majority will experience declines like PayPal has experienced.</p><p><blockquote>我认为PayPal 2021年的衰落是一个有趣且有用的案例研究，超越了PayPal本身。我们今年看到的PayPal股价下跌是完全可以预见的，还有许多其他估值丰厚的科技股也将经历类似的下跌，其中大多数可能在2022年。对于跑赢大盘此类股票的投资者来说，现在可能是考虑多元化的时候了，以帮助保持过去几年的收益。虽然会有一些被高估的股票停滞不前几年，毫无进展，也有极少数股票设法继续上涨，但绝大多数股票将经历像PayPal那样的下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>PayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks<blockquote>PayPal最近的价格下跌最终将发生在几乎所有被高估的科技股身上</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks<blockquote>PayPal最近的价格下跌最终将发生在几乎所有被高估的科技股身上</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-14 11:43</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>PayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.</li>  <li>I warned investors back in February of 2021 that PayPal was extremely overvalued and worth selling.</li>  <li>That warning could have been issued for dozens and dozens of overvalued technology stocks that still have over -50% downside from here within the next 3 years.</li>  <li>PayPal remains a great company that I would like to own, so I analyze the stock in order to establish I price at which I'd be willing to buy it.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/847095b0be294275f55f7e8f700d56b4\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1229\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>BsWei/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>PayPal股价较今年高点下跌超过-35%，而且该股仍然不便宜。</li><li>我早在2021年2月就警告投资者，PayPal的估值被严重高估，值得出售。</li><li>这一警告可能是针对数十只被高估的科技股发出的，这些股在未来3年内仍有超过-50%的下跌空间。</li><li>PayPal仍然是一家我想拥有的伟大公司，因此我分析该股票以确定我愿意购买它的价格。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>BsWei/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Back on February 6th, 2021, I made a video where I shared with investors why PayPal (PYPL) stock was overvalued enough to sell. I shared that video on my Seeking Alpha bloghere. Since that time, PayPal has performed poorly both on an absolute basis and relative to the S&amp;P 500 (SPY).</p><p><blockquote>早在2021年2月6日，我就制作了一段视频，与投资者分享了为什么PayPal(PYPL)股票被高估到足以出售。我在我的Seeking Alpha bloghere上分享了该视频。自那时以来，PayPal的绝对表现和相对于标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）的表现都很差。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8252b7218af36cce8b5a591f56abaecd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The stock price is down about -30% since I warned investors and down about -38% off its high price of the year.</p><p><blockquote>自从我向投资者发出警告以来，该股股价已下跌约-30%，较今年的高点下跌约-38%。</blockquote></p><p> The truth is that I could have issued the same warning about many other technology stocks that had become overvalued, but PayPal was one that I actually wanted to buy if the price ever fell to a reasonable level. It was a case where there was absolutely nothing wrong with the company. There was no bad story to tell. The price had simply gotten insanely overvalued. It didn't matter how good the story around PayPal was back in February. Numbers almost always trump narrative over the long-term. And the numbers back then didn't make sense.</p><p><blockquote>事实是，我本可以对许多其他被高估的科技股发出同样的警告，但如果价格跌至合理水平，我实际上想买入PayPal。这是一个公司绝对没有问题的案例。没有什么不好的故事可讲。这个价格被高估了。二月份围绕PayPal的故事有多好并不重要。从长远来看，数字几乎总是胜过叙事。当时的数字没有意义。</blockquote></p><p> This should be an important lesson for medium and long-term investors. If the numbers don't work, it doesn't matter what the story is.</p><p><blockquote>这应该是中长线投资者的重要一课。如果数字不起作用，故事是什么并不重要。</blockquote></p><p> The difficultly for a stock writer like myself is that investors<i>love</i>narratives and stories. It's not our fault. Our human brains are hardwired that way. Since I shared my bearish February PayPal video, out of 62 articles on Seeking Alpha covering PayPal, there hasn't been a single \"Bearish\" article written. The primary reason for that is because PayPal's narrative was so appealing that valuation numbers were either ignored, or the assumptions around the numbers were not realistic.</p><p><blockquote>对于像我这样的股票作家来说，困难的是投资者<i>爱</i>叙事和故事。这不是我们的错。我们人类的大脑天生就是这样。自从我分享了我看跌的2月份PayPal视频以来，Seeking Alpha上报道PayPal的62篇文章中，没有一篇“看跌”文章。主要原因是PayPal的叙述如此吸引人，以至于估值数字要么被忽视，要么围绕这些数字的假设不现实。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, I'm going to share my current PayPal valuation based on earnings and earnings growth projections. I'll also share what I consider to be a fair value range for PayPal stock, and the price I would be looking to buy with a margin of safety. This is the same basic process I used to determine that PayPal stock was overvalued back in February of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>在本文中，我将分享我目前基于盈利和盈利增长预测的PayPal估值。我还将分享我认为PayPal股票的公允价值范围，以及我希望在安全边际的情况下购买的价格。这与我在2021年2月用来确定PayPal股票被高估的基本过程相同。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>全周期盈利分析</b></blockquote></p><p> As part of the analysis, I calculate what I consider to be the two main drivers of future total returns: Market sentiment returns and business returns. I then combine those expected returns together in the form of a 10-year CAGR expectation and use that to value the stock.</p><p><blockquote>作为分析的一部分，我计算了我认为未来总回报的两个主要驱动因素：市场情绪回报和商业回报。然后，我将这些预期回报以10年复合年增长率预期的形式组合在一起，并用它来评估股票。</blockquote></p><p> Before I begin this analysis, I always check the business's long-term earnings patterns in order to ensure that the business is a proper fit for this sort of analysis. If the historical earnings 1) don't have a long enough history 2) are erratic in nature, or 3) are too cyclical, then I either avoid analyzing the stock altogether or I use a different type of analysis that is more appropriate.</p><p><blockquote>在我开始这种分析之前，我总是检查企业的长期盈利模式，以确保企业适合这种分析。如果历史收益1）没有足够长的历史2）本质上不稳定，或者3）周期性太强，那么我要么完全避免分析股票，要么使用更合适的不同类型的分析。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70078307e65a5a1d0e37f9e70b726b77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We can see that since 2015 PayPal's earnings per share have increased every single year. This is a clear secular growth pattern and it makes the stock very attractive as a long-term investment. Since 2015 there haven't been any negative earnings growth years so the stock is likely a good fit for the type of earnings analysis I'm going to perform. One important question to ask, though, is that while we did have a brief recession in 2020, it was a very unusual one. It's possible that PayPal's business could be more economically sensitive during a longer, more drawn-out recession. So, that is a risk. However, when I examined how eBay (EBAY) performed in the 2008/9 recession, its earnings growth was basically flat, and never went negative. If I had to make a guess, I think PayPal's earnings growth rate would probably decline during a \"normal\" recession, but still wouldn't be especially cyclical. For those reasons, I'm going to go ahead with my Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis even though we don't have hard historical data from \"normal\" recession for PayPal.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以看到，自2015年以来，PayPal的每股收益每年都在增长。这是一个明显的长期增长模式，它使该股票作为长期投资非常有吸引力。自2015年以来，没有出现过任何盈利负增长的年份，因此该股票可能非常适合我将要进行的盈利分析类型。不过，要问的一个重要问题是，虽然我们在2020年确实经历了短暂的衰退，但这是一次非常不寻常的衰退。在更长、更持久的经济衰退期间，PayPal的业务可能会对经济更加敏感。所以，这是一个风险。然而，当我考察eBay(EBAY)在2008/9年经济衰退中的表现时，其盈利增长基本持平，从未出现过负增长。如果让我猜测的话，我认为PayPal的盈利增长率可能会在“正常”衰退期间下降，但仍然不会特别具有周期性。出于这些原因，尽管我们没有PayPal“正常”衰退的硬历史数据，但我仍将继续进行全周期盈利分析。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market Sentiment Return Expectations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场情绪回归预期</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In order to estimate what sort of returns we might expect over the next 10 years, let's begin by examining what return we could expect 10 years from now if the P/E multiple were to revert to its mean from the previous economic cycle. Since we have had a recent recession (albeit an unusual one) I'm starting this cycle in fiscal year 2015 and running it through 2021's estimates.</p><p><blockquote>为了估计未来10年我们可能预期的回报，让我们首先研究一下，如果市盈率倍数恢复到上一个经济周期的平均值，我们从现在起10年后可以预期的回报。由于我们最近经历了一次衰退（尽管是一次不寻常的衰退），我将在2015财年开始这个周期，并通过2021年的估计运行它。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e36d2c3455962a02d96b8c88c32eadce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> PayPal's average P/E from 2015 to the present has been a healthy 34.11 (the blue bar circled in gold on the FAST Graph). Using 2021's forward earnings estimates of $4.60 (also circled in gold), PayPal has a current P/E of 40.73. If that 40.73 P/E were to revert to the average P/E of 34.11 over the course of the next 10 years and everything else was held the same, PayPal's price would fall and it would produce a 10-Year CAGR of<b>-1.75%</b>. That's the annual return we can expect from sentiment mean reversion if it takes ten years to revert. If it takes less time to revert, the price could fall faster.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal从2015年至今的平均市盈率为34.11（快速图上用金色圈出的蓝色条）。使用2021年4.60美元的预期盈利预测（也用金色圈出），PayPal目前的市盈率为40.73。如果40.73市盈率在未来10年恢复到34.11的平均市盈率，而其他条件保持不变，PayPal的股价将会下跌，10年复合年增长率将为<b>-1.75%</b>如果情绪回归需要十年时间，这就是我们可以从情绪均值回归中预期的年回报率。如果恢复所需的时间更短，价格可能会下跌得更快。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Earnings Expectations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>业务盈利预期</b></blockquote></p><p> We previously examined what would happen if market sentiment reverted to the mean. This is entirely determined by the mood of the market and is quite often disconnected, or only loosely connected, to the performance of the actual business. In this section, we will examine the actual earnings of the business. The goal here is simple: We want to know how much money we would earn (expressed in the form of a CAGR %) over the course of 10 years if we bought the business at today's prices and kept all of the earnings for ourselves.</p><p><blockquote>我们之前研究了如果市场情绪恢复到均值会发生什么。这完全由市场情绪决定，并且通常与实际业务的表现脱节，或者只是松散地联系在一起。在本节中，我们将检查企业的实际收益。这里的目标很简单：我们想知道如果我们以今天的价格收购企业并将所有收益留给自己，我们在10年内会赚多少钱（以CAGR%的形式表示）。</blockquote></p><p> There are two main components of this: the first is the earnings yield and the second is the rate at which the earnings can be expected to grow. Let's start with the earnings yield (which is an inverted P/E ratio, so, the Earnings/Price ratio). The current earnings yield is about +2.46%. The way I like to think about this is, if I bought the company's whole business right now for $100, I would earn $2.46 per year on my investment if earnings remained the same for the next 10 years.</p><p><blockquote>这有两个主要组成部分：第一个是收益收益率，第二个是收益的预期增长率。让我们从收益率（这是一个倒置的市盈率，因此，市盈率）开始。目前的收益率约为+2.46%。我喜欢思考这个问题的方式是，如果我现在以100美元购买公司的整个业务，如果未来10年收益保持不变，我每年的投资将获得2.46美元。</blockquote></p><p> The next step is to estimate the company's earnings growth during this time period. I do that by figuring out at what rate earnings grew during the last cycle and applying that rate to the next 10 years. This involves calculating the EPS growth rate since 2015, taking into account each year's EPS growth or decline, and then backing out any share buybacks that occurred over that time period (because reducing shares will increase the EPS due to fewer shares).</p><p><blockquote>下一步是估计公司在这段时间内的盈利增长。我通过计算上一个周期的收益增长率并将该增长率应用于未来10年来做到这一点。这涉及计算自2015年以来的每股收益增长率，考虑每年的每股收益增长或下降，然后退出该时期发生的任何股票回购（因为减持股票会因股票减少而增加每股收益）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f31b7d8ed5f59c82c2531cc686324d1a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Due to the scale of the graph, the buybacks look much bigger than they actually are, and there isn't much to adjust here. Additionally, since PayPal has grown earnings every year there are no earnings growth declines to adjust for either. This makes estimating PayPal's earnings growth a relatively straightforward affair, and I estimate PayPal's earnings growth at about +23.65%.</p><p><blockquote>由于图表的规模，回购看起来比实际要大得多，这里没有太多调整。此外，由于PayPal的盈利每年都在增长，因此无需调整盈利增长下降。这使得估计PayPal的盈利增长变得相对简单，我估计PayPal的盈利增长约为+23.65%。</blockquote></p><p> Now, this is the point where my conservatism when it comes to asking myself \"What is a reasonable expectation, for valuation purposes, going forward 10 years?\" It is very, very difficult for businesses to grow earnings over 20% per year for a full decade (particularly if they have already been doing that the previous decade). For that reason, I cap all of my long-term forward earnings growth estimates when using them for valuation purposes at 20%. This is simply a way to help keep me from overpaying for a stock when their P/E multiple is likely to contract over time. So, for this valuation exercise, I am limiting my earnings growth assumption to 20%.</p><p><blockquote>现在，当我问自己“出于估值目的，未来10年的合理预期是什么？”对于企业来说，在整整十年的时间里，收入每年增长超过20%是非常非常困难的（特别是如果他们在过去十年里已经这样做了）。因此，在用于估值目的时，我将所有长期预期盈利增长预测限制在20%。当股票的市盈率可能会随着时间的推移而收缩时，这只是一种帮助我避免为股票支付过高价格的方法。因此，对于这次估值工作，我将盈利增长假设限制在20%。</blockquote></p><p> Next, I'll apply that growth rate to current earnings, looking forward 10 years in order to get a final 10-year CAGR estimate. The way I think about this is, if I bought PayPal's whole business for $100, it would pay me back $2.46 plus +20.00% growth the first year, and that amount would grow at +20.00% per year for 10 years after that. I want to know how much money I would have in total at the end of 10 years on my $100 investment, which I calculate to be about $176.50 (including the original $100). When I plug that growth into a CAGR calculator, that translates to a<b>+5.85%</b>10-year CAGR estimate for the expected business earnings returns.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我将将该增长率应用于当前收益，展望10年，以获得最终的10年复合年增长率估计。我的想法是，如果我以100美元收购PayPal的整个业务，它将在第一年偿还我2.46美元，外加+20.00%的增长，并且在那之后的10年里，这个数额将以每年+20.00%的速度增长。我想知道我的100美元投资在10年后总共会有多少钱，我计算出大约是176.50美元（包括最初的100美元）。当我将这种增长插入CAGR计算器时，就会转化为<b>+5.85%</b>预期业务盈利回报的10年复合年增长率估计。</blockquote></p><p> <b>10-Year, Full-Cycle CAGR Estimate</b></p><p><blockquote><b>10年全周期复合年增长率估计</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Potential future returns can come from two main places: market sentiment returns or business earnings returns. If we assume that market sentiment reverts to the mean from the last cycle over the next 10 years for PayPal, it will produce a -1.75% CAGR. If the earnings yield and growth are similar to the last cycle, the company should produce somewhere around a +5.85% 10-year CAGR. If we put the two together, we get an expected 10-year, full-cycle CAGR of<b>+4.10%</b>at today's price.</p><p><blockquote>潜在的未来回报可以来自两个主要地方：市场情绪回报或业务收益回报。如果我们假设PayPal未来10年的市场情绪恢复到上一个周期的平均值，则复合年增长率将为-1.75%。如果盈利收益率和增长与上一个周期相似，该公司的10年复合年增长率应该在+5.85%左右。如果我们将两者放在一起，我们会得到预期的10年全周期复合年增长率为<b>+4.10%</b>以今天的价格。</blockquote></p><p> My Buy/Sell/Hold range for this category of stocks is: above a 12% CAGR is a Buy, below a 4% expected CAGR is a Sell, and in between 4% and 12% is a Hold. This puts PayPal stock just barely into the \"Hold\" category at today's price level.</p><p><blockquote>我对此类股票的买入/卖出/持有范围是：复合年增长率高于12%为买入，预期复合年增长率低于4%为卖出，4%至12%之间为持有。这使得PayPal股票在今天的价格水平上勉强属于“持有”类别。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Additional Considerations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>其他注意事项</b></blockquote></p><p> I consider PayPal one of the highest quality growth stocks in the market right now, which is why I've been monitoring its valuation relatively closely. In this section I'm going to share my fair value range for PayPal along with the price I would be willing to buy the stock with a margin of safety based on earnings, and also the price I would consider buying using a more aggressive and less conservative valuation approach. So, I'm going to look at PayPal's valuation from a variety of different perspectives to give us a clearer view of what might be an appropriate price to pay for the stock.</p><p><blockquote>我认为PayPal是目前市场上质量最高的成长型股票之一，这就是为什么我一直相对密切地关注其估值。在本节中，我将分享我对PayPal的公允价值范围，以及我愿意在基于收益的安全边际下购买该股票的价格，以及我考虑使用更激进和不太保守的估值方法购买的价格。因此，我将从各种不同的角度来看PayPal的估值，让我们更清楚地了解购买该股票的合适价格。</blockquote></p><p> First, I'll start with my buy price and fair value range using the same assumptions and inputs I used in this article. If we use all of those same inputs my current fair value range for PayPal is about $126.50 to $164.00 per share. My current buy price that includes a margin of safety is $112.10. Investors who buy below that price have very good odds of great returns over the medium-term with the stock.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我将使用本文中使用的相同假设和输入从我的购买价格和公允价值范围开始。如果我们使用所有这些相同的输入，我目前对PayPal的公允价值范围约为每股126.50美元至164.00美元。我目前的买入价格（包括安全边际）是112.10美元。低于该价格买入的投资者在中期内很有可能获得丰厚的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Once we get into the new year and 2022, I'll start pulling forward PayPal's 2022 earnings for my estimates. Right now, analysts expect $5.25 per share from earnings in 2022. That will improve PayPal's valuation a lot if the rest of their metrics remain the same, and it would raise their fair value range up to $145.00 to $187.50 dollars per share with a margin of safety buy price at $128.00 per share. This, of course, assumes analysts keep their estimates for 2022 in place and don't lower them over the next couple of months. It also means, based on future earnings, that in a month or two if PayPal keeps trading near its current price, it is already in the top end of a \"fair value\" price range. This might be a further reason for current owners to keep holding.</p><p><blockquote>一旦我们进入新的一年和2022年，我将开始提前预测PayPal 2022年的盈利。目前，分析师预计2022年每股收益为5.25美元。如果PayPal的其他指标保持不变，这将大大提高其估值，并将其公允价值范围提高至每股145.00美元至187.50美元，安全买入价格为每股128.00美元。当然，这是假设分析师维持对2022年的预期不变，并且在未来几个月内不会降低预期。这也意味着，根据未来的收益，如果PayPal在一两个月内保持接近当前价格的交易，它已经处于“公允价值”价格范围的上限。这可能是当前所有者继续持有的另一个原因。</blockquote></p><p> The Full-Cycle Earnings analysis I used in this article is not the only type of analysis I use. For certain rare businesses with fast profit growth dynamics, I recently developed a new analysis to help identify fast-growing businesses that might never become cheap enough to buy based on earnings alone. The methods of this analysis are exclusive to my private service, The Cyclical Investor's Club, but since PayPal's profit growth is very strong, it actually qualifies for this type of analysis, too, and I thought I would at least share the sort of \"buy price\" that analysis produces because it's a little more aggressive than the earnings-based analysis.</p><p><blockquote>我在本文中使用的全周期收益分析并不是我使用的唯一分析类型。对于某些利润快速增长的罕见企业，我最近开发了一种新的分析方法，以帮助识别仅根据收益可能永远不会变得足够便宜的快速增长企业。这种分析的方法是我的私人服务机构周期性投资者俱乐部独有的，但由于PayPal的利润增长非常强劲，它实际上也有资格进行这种类型的分析，我想我至少会分享这种分析产生的“购买价格”，因为它比基于收益的分析更激进一些。</blockquote></p><p> When I examine PayPal using the profit growth analysis, it produces a buy price of $144.90. I find that interesting because if profits keep growing this quarter that price is likely to rise a little bit and put it pretty close to the middle of fair value using next year's earnings using my earnings-based method. This assumes that PayPal's metrics don't deteriorate between now and then, and there would be some technical requirements PayPal would have to meet as well, but I think the odds are good that by February of 2022 I could be a buyer of PayPal stock, approximately one year after I warned investors about its high valuation. It's going to be very interesting to see how it turns out.</p><p><blockquote>当我使用利润增长分析来检查PayPal时，它得出的买入价格为144.90美元。我觉得这很有趣，因为如果本季度利润继续增长，价格可能会上涨一点，并使用我的基于收益的方法，使用明年的收益，使其非常接近公允价值的中间值。这是假设PayPal的指标从现在到那时不会恶化，而且PayPal也必须满足一些技术要求，但我认为到2022年2月，我很有可能成为PayPal股票的买家，大约在我警告投资者其高估值一年后。看看结果会很有趣。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> I think PayPal's 2021 decline is an interesting and useful case study that goes beyond PayPal itself. The sort of decline we've seen in PayPal's stock price this year was entirely predictable and there are many other richly valued technology stocks that will experience a similar decline, likely in 2022 for most of them. For investors who are overweight these types of stocks, now is probably a time to consider diversifying in order to help keep the gains they have experienced the past couple of years. While there will be some overvalued stocks that simply stagnate for several years and go nowhere, and a rare few that manage to keep rising, the vast majority will experience declines like PayPal has experienced.</p><p><blockquote>我认为PayPal 2021年的衰落是一个有趣且有用的案例研究，超越了PayPal本身。我们今年看到的PayPal股价下跌是完全可以预见的，还有许多其他估值丰厚的科技股也将经历类似的下跌，其中大多数可能在2022年。对于跑赢大盘此类股票的投资者来说，现在可能是考虑多元化的时候了，以帮助保持过去几年的收益。虽然会有一些被高估的股票停滞不前几年，毫无进展，也有极少数股票设法继续上涨，但绝大多数股票将经历像PayPal那样的下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474960-paypal-share-price-decline-overvalued-technology-stocks\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PYPL":"PayPal"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474960-paypal-share-price-decline-overvalued-technology-stocks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120286910","content_text":"Summary\n\nPayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.\nI warned investors back in February of 2021 that PayPal was extremely overvalued and worth selling.\nThat warning could have been issued for dozens and dozens of overvalued technology stocks that still have over -50% downside from here within the next 3 years.\nPayPal remains a great company that I would like to own, so I analyze the stock in order to establish I price at which I'd be willing to buy it.\n\nBsWei/iStock via Getty Images\nIntroduction\nBack on February 6th, 2021, I made a video where I shared with investors why PayPal (PYPL) stock was overvalued enough to sell. I shared that video on my Seeking Alpha bloghere. Since that time, PayPal has performed poorly both on an absolute basis and relative to the S&P 500 (SPY).\nData by YCharts\nThe stock price is down about -30% since I warned investors and down about -38% off its high price of the year.\nThe truth is that I could have issued the same warning about many other technology stocks that had become overvalued, but PayPal was one that I actually wanted to buy if the price ever fell to a reasonable level. It was a case where there was absolutely nothing wrong with the company. There was no bad story to tell. The price had simply gotten insanely overvalued. It didn't matter how good the story around PayPal was back in February. Numbers almost always trump narrative over the long-term. And the numbers back then didn't make sense.\nThis should be an important lesson for medium and long-term investors. If the numbers don't work, it doesn't matter what the story is.\nThe difficultly for a stock writer like myself is that investorslovenarratives and stories. It's not our fault. Our human brains are hardwired that way. Since I shared my bearish February PayPal video, out of 62 articles on Seeking Alpha covering PayPal, there hasn't been a single \"Bearish\" article written. The primary reason for that is because PayPal's narrative was so appealing that valuation numbers were either ignored, or the assumptions around the numbers were not realistic.\nIn this article, I'm going to share my current PayPal valuation based on earnings and earnings growth projections. I'll also share what I consider to be a fair value range for PayPal stock, and the price I would be looking to buy with a margin of safety. This is the same basic process I used to determine that PayPal stock was overvalued back in February of 2021.\nFull-Cycle Earnings Analysis\nAs part of the analysis, I calculate what I consider to be the two main drivers of future total returns: Market sentiment returns and business returns. I then combine those expected returns together in the form of a 10-year CAGR expectation and use that to value the stock.\nBefore I begin this analysis, I always check the business's long-term earnings patterns in order to ensure that the business is a proper fit for this sort of analysis. If the historical earnings 1) don't have a long enough history 2) are erratic in nature, or 3) are too cyclical, then I either avoid analyzing the stock altogether or I use a different type of analysis that is more appropriate.\n\nWe can see that since 2015 PayPal's earnings per share have increased every single year. This is a clear secular growth pattern and it makes the stock very attractive as a long-term investment. Since 2015 there haven't been any negative earnings growth years so the stock is likely a good fit for the type of earnings analysis I'm going to perform. One important question to ask, though, is that while we did have a brief recession in 2020, it was a very unusual one. It's possible that PayPal's business could be more economically sensitive during a longer, more drawn-out recession. So, that is a risk. However, when I examined how eBay (EBAY) performed in the 2008/9 recession, its earnings growth was basically flat, and never went negative. If I had to make a guess, I think PayPal's earnings growth rate would probably decline during a \"normal\" recession, but still wouldn't be especially cyclical. For those reasons, I'm going to go ahead with my Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis even though we don't have hard historical data from \"normal\" recession for PayPal.\nMarket Sentiment Return Expectations\nIn order to estimate what sort of returns we might expect over the next 10 years, let's begin by examining what return we could expect 10 years from now if the P/E multiple were to revert to its mean from the previous economic cycle. Since we have had a recent recession (albeit an unusual one) I'm starting this cycle in fiscal year 2015 and running it through 2021's estimates.\n\nPayPal's average P/E from 2015 to the present has been a healthy 34.11 (the blue bar circled in gold on the FAST Graph). Using 2021's forward earnings estimates of $4.60 (also circled in gold), PayPal has a current P/E of 40.73. If that 40.73 P/E were to revert to the average P/E of 34.11 over the course of the next 10 years and everything else was held the same, PayPal's price would fall and it would produce a 10-Year CAGR of-1.75%. That's the annual return we can expect from sentiment mean reversion if it takes ten years to revert. If it takes less time to revert, the price could fall faster.\nBusiness Earnings Expectations\nWe previously examined what would happen if market sentiment reverted to the mean. This is entirely determined by the mood of the market and is quite often disconnected, or only loosely connected, to the performance of the actual business. In this section, we will examine the actual earnings of the business. The goal here is simple: We want to know how much money we would earn (expressed in the form of a CAGR %) over the course of 10 years if we bought the business at today's prices and kept all of the earnings for ourselves.\nThere are two main components of this: the first is the earnings yield and the second is the rate at which the earnings can be expected to grow. Let's start with the earnings yield (which is an inverted P/E ratio, so, the Earnings/Price ratio). The current earnings yield is about +2.46%. The way I like to think about this is, if I bought the company's whole business right now for $100, I would earn $2.46 per year on my investment if earnings remained the same for the next 10 years.\nThe next step is to estimate the company's earnings growth during this time period. I do that by figuring out at what rate earnings grew during the last cycle and applying that rate to the next 10 years. This involves calculating the EPS growth rate since 2015, taking into account each year's EPS growth or decline, and then backing out any share buybacks that occurred over that time period (because reducing shares will increase the EPS due to fewer shares).\nData by YCharts\nDue to the scale of the graph, the buybacks look much bigger than they actually are, and there isn't much to adjust here. Additionally, since PayPal has grown earnings every year there are no earnings growth declines to adjust for either. This makes estimating PayPal's earnings growth a relatively straightforward affair, and I estimate PayPal's earnings growth at about +23.65%.\nNow, this is the point where my conservatism when it comes to asking myself \"What is a reasonable expectation, for valuation purposes, going forward 10 years?\" It is very, very difficult for businesses to grow earnings over 20% per year for a full decade (particularly if they have already been doing that the previous decade). For that reason, I cap all of my long-term forward earnings growth estimates when using them for valuation purposes at 20%. This is simply a way to help keep me from overpaying for a stock when their P/E multiple is likely to contract over time. So, for this valuation exercise, I am limiting my earnings growth assumption to 20%.\nNext, I'll apply that growth rate to current earnings, looking forward 10 years in order to get a final 10-year CAGR estimate. The way I think about this is, if I bought PayPal's whole business for $100, it would pay me back $2.46 plus +20.00% growth the first year, and that amount would grow at +20.00% per year for 10 years after that. I want to know how much money I would have in total at the end of 10 years on my $100 investment, which I calculate to be about $176.50 (including the original $100). When I plug that growth into a CAGR calculator, that translates to a+5.85%10-year CAGR estimate for the expected business earnings returns.\n10-Year, Full-Cycle CAGR Estimate\nPotential future returns can come from two main places: market sentiment returns or business earnings returns. If we assume that market sentiment reverts to the mean from the last cycle over the next 10 years for PayPal, it will produce a -1.75% CAGR. If the earnings yield and growth are similar to the last cycle, the company should produce somewhere around a +5.85% 10-year CAGR. If we put the two together, we get an expected 10-year, full-cycle CAGR of+4.10%at today's price.\nMy Buy/Sell/Hold range for this category of stocks is: above a 12% CAGR is a Buy, below a 4% expected CAGR is a Sell, and in between 4% and 12% is a Hold. This puts PayPal stock just barely into the \"Hold\" category at today's price level.\nAdditional Considerations\nI consider PayPal one of the highest quality growth stocks in the market right now, which is why I've been monitoring its valuation relatively closely. In this section I'm going to share my fair value range for PayPal along with the price I would be willing to buy the stock with a margin of safety based on earnings, and also the price I would consider buying using a more aggressive and less conservative valuation approach. So, I'm going to look at PayPal's valuation from a variety of different perspectives to give us a clearer view of what might be an appropriate price to pay for the stock.\nFirst, I'll start with my buy price and fair value range using the same assumptions and inputs I used in this article. If we use all of those same inputs my current fair value range for PayPal is about $126.50 to $164.00 per share. My current buy price that includes a margin of safety is $112.10. Investors who buy below that price have very good odds of great returns over the medium-term with the stock.\nOnce we get into the new year and 2022, I'll start pulling forward PayPal's 2022 earnings for my estimates. Right now, analysts expect $5.25 per share from earnings in 2022. That will improve PayPal's valuation a lot if the rest of their metrics remain the same, and it would raise their fair value range up to $145.00 to $187.50 dollars per share with a margin of safety buy price at $128.00 per share. This, of course, assumes analysts keep their estimates for 2022 in place and don't lower them over the next couple of months. It also means, based on future earnings, that in a month or two if PayPal keeps trading near its current price, it is already in the top end of a \"fair value\" price range. This might be a further reason for current owners to keep holding.\nThe Full-Cycle Earnings analysis I used in this article is not the only type of analysis I use. For certain rare businesses with fast profit growth dynamics, I recently developed a new analysis to help identify fast-growing businesses that might never become cheap enough to buy based on earnings alone. The methods of this analysis are exclusive to my private service, The Cyclical Investor's Club, but since PayPal's profit growth is very strong, it actually qualifies for this type of analysis, too, and I thought I would at least share the sort of \"buy price\" that analysis produces because it's a little more aggressive than the earnings-based analysis.\nWhen I examine PayPal using the profit growth analysis, it produces a buy price of $144.90. I find that interesting because if profits keep growing this quarter that price is likely to rise a little bit and put it pretty close to the middle of fair value using next year's earnings using my earnings-based method. This assumes that PayPal's metrics don't deteriorate between now and then, and there would be some technical requirements PayPal would have to meet as well, but I think the odds are good that by February of 2022 I could be a buyer of PayPal stock, approximately one year after I warned investors about its high valuation. It's going to be very interesting to see how it turns out.\nConclusion\nI think PayPal's 2021 decline is an interesting and useful case study that goes beyond PayPal itself. The sort of decline we've seen in PayPal's stock price this year was entirely predictable and there are many other richly valued technology stocks that will experience a similar decline, likely in 2022 for most of them. For investors who are overweight these types of stocks, now is probably a time to consider diversifying in order to help keep the gains they have experienced the past couple of years. While there will be some overvalued stocks that simply stagnate for several years and go nowhere, and a rare few that manage to keep rising, the vast majority will experience declines like PayPal has experienced.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PYPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4521,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":604817390,"gmtCreate":1639369427112,"gmtModify":1639369427470,"author":{"id":"3582617881962608","authorId":"3582617881962608","name":"Ahsiang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/310f96e7696af85ae33ece774a483d15","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582617881962608","authorIdStr":"3582617881962608"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Gogogo","listText":"Gogogo","text":"Gogogo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604817390","repostId":"1171394291","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1171394291","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639366890,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1171394291?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-13 11:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple's $3 trillion market cap to be a 'watershed moment' for company<blockquote>苹果3万亿美元市值将成为公司的“分水岭时刻”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171394291","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"As many companies begin to gear down for the Christmas and New Year holidays, there remains one tech","content":"<p>As many companies begin to gear down for the Christmas and New Year holidays, there remains one tech stalwart that is on the brink of a milestone that no other company in history has achieved: Apple.</p><p><blockquote>随着许多公司开始为圣诞节和新年假期做好准备，仍有一家科技巨头正处于历史上其他公司从未实现过的里程碑的边缘：苹果。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c6ec3289e9b74b1c20fa47308bcbb20\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1063\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>贾斯汀·沙利文/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The most-iconic of all tech companies stands a good chance of reaching $3 trillion in market capitalization this week. Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)finished Friday with a valuation of $2.944 trillion, so all Wall Street needs to do now is add $56 billion to the iPhone maker's stock value and Apple (AAPL) will stand alone in the $3 trillion club.</p><p><blockquote>所有科技公司中最具标志性的公司本周的市值很有可能达到3万亿美元。苹果（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）周五收盘估值为2.944万亿美元，因此华尔街现在需要做的就是将这家iPhone制造商的股票价值增加560亿美元，苹果（AAPL）将在3万亿美元俱乐部中独树一帜。</blockquote></p><p> To put that amount in some perspective, Apple (AAPL) became the first company to hit $1 trillion in market cap in 2018--or, 42 years after Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak founded Apple (AAPL) in a garage in Cupertino, Calif. It then took Apple just until 2020 to reach $2 trillion in market cap. Right now, the only other company worth more than $2 trillion is Microsoft(NASDAQ:MSFT), which ended last week with a market cap of $2.57 trillion.</p><p><blockquote>从某种角度来看，苹果(AAPL)在2018年成为第一家市值达到1万亿美元的公司，也就是史蒂夫·乔布斯(Steve Jobs)和史蒂夫·沃兹尼亚克(Steve Wozniak)在库比蒂诺的车库里创立苹果(AAPL)42年后，加利福尼亚州。直到2020年，苹果的市值才达到2万亿美元。目前，唯一一家市值超过2万亿美元的公司是微软（纳斯达克股票代码：MSFT），该公司上周收盘市值为2.57万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> \"The Street is starting to better appreciate the robust fundamental story into 2022 for [Apple Chief Executive] Tim Cook &amp; Co.,\" said Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, in a research note on Sunday. \"Hitting $3 trillion is another watershed moment for Apple as the company continues to prove the doubters wrong with the renaissance of growth story playing out in Cupertino.\"</p><p><blockquote>Wedbush分析师Dan Ives在周日的一份研究报告中表示：“华尔街开始更好地认识到[苹果首席执行官]蒂姆·库克公司(Tim Cook&amp;Co.)2022年强劲的基本面。”“达到3万亿美元是苹果的另一个分水岭，因为该公司继续证明怀疑者对库比蒂诺复兴增长故事的看法是错误的。”</blockquote></p><p> While Apple's (AAPL) iPhone sales continue to be the biggest source of the company's strength--iPhones accounted for almost $39 billion of Apple's $83.4 billion in fiscal fourth-quarter sales--Ives said the \"linchpin\" of Apple's (AAPL) growing valuation is its services business.</p><p><blockquote>虽然苹果(AAPL)的iPhone销量仍然是该公司实力的最大来源——iPhone在苹果第四财季834亿美元的销售额中占了近390亿美元——但Ives表示，苹果(AAPL)增长的“关键”估值是其服务业务。</blockquote></p><p> Services, which include items such as sales from the App Store and subscriptions to everything from Apple TV+ to iCloud storage plans, brought in $18.3 billion in revenue in Apple's (AAPL) most-recent quarter. Ives estimates that Apple's (AAPL) services business&nbsp;\"is worth $1.5 trillion in the eyes of the Street,\" and is benefiting from being coupled with a hardware ecosystem that \"is in the midst of its strongest product cycle in over a decade, led by iPhone 13.\"</p><p><blockquote>苹果(AAPL)最近一个季度的服务收入为183亿美元，其中包括App Store的销售以及从苹果TV+到iCloud存储计划的订阅等项目。Ives估计，苹果(AAPL)的服务业务“在华尔街眼中价值1.5万亿美元”，并且受益于与硬件生态系统的结合，该生态系统“正处于十多年来最强劲的产品周期中，以iPhone 13为首。”</blockquote></p><p> Even issues related to component supplies that could impede Apple's (AAPL) path toward a market cap for $3 trillion or more are likely to be little more than minor speedbumps for the company to overcome, in Ives opinion.</p><p><blockquote>Ives认为，即使与零部件供应相关的问题可能会阻碍苹果(AAPL)实现3万亿美元或更高市值的道路，也可能只不过是该公司需要克服的小障碍。</blockquote></p><p> \"Supply shortages of roughly 15 million iPhone units globally remain an issue that should moderate into early 2022,\" Ives said. \"Importantly, the underlying demand story is our focus into 2022 and we believe is the ultimate driver of the stock going forward.\"</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯表示：“全球约1500万部iPhone的供应短缺仍然是一个问题，到2022年初应该会有所缓解。”“重要的是，潜在的需求故事是我们2022年的重点，我们相信这是该股未来发展的最终驱动力。”</blockquote></p><p> Ives estimates that Apple (AAPL) will sell more than 40 million iPhones during the end-of-the-year holiday season, and that China alone is set to see 15 million upgrades to the iPhone 13 during the quarter that concludes at the end of December.</p><p><blockquote>Ives估计，苹果(AAPL)在年底假期期间将售出超过4000万部iPhone，仅在中国，在截至年底的季度内，iPhone 13的升级量就将达到1500万部。十二月。</blockquote></p><p> Along with the iPhone, Ives said many signs point toward Apple (AAPL) rolling out its first augmented reality [AR] glasses by the summer of 2022, and that move could add $20 a share to the company's valuation. Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty also recently said that Apple (AAPL) should see success with its AR glasses due to its long-time&nbsp;track record of entering consumer markets with successful new products.</p><p><blockquote>Ives表示，除了iPhone之外，许多迹象表明苹果(AAPL)将在2022年夏季推出首款增强现实[AR]眼镜，此举可能会使该公司每股估值增加20美元。Morgan Stanley分析师Katy Huberty最近也表示，苹果(AAPL)的AR眼镜应该会取得成功，因为该公司长期以来一直以成功的新产品进入消费市场。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple's $3 trillion market cap to be a 'watershed moment' for company<blockquote>苹果3万亿美元市值将成为公司的“分水岭时刻”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple's $3 trillion market cap to be a 'watershed moment' for company<blockquote>苹果3万亿美元市值将成为公司的“分水岭时刻”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-13 11:41</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>As many companies begin to gear down for the Christmas and New Year holidays, there remains one tech stalwart that is on the brink of a milestone that no other company in history has achieved: Apple.</p><p><blockquote>随着许多公司开始为圣诞节和新年假期做好准备，仍有一家科技巨头正处于历史上其他公司从未实现过的里程碑的边缘：苹果。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c6ec3289e9b74b1c20fa47308bcbb20\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1063\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>贾斯汀·沙利文/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The most-iconic of all tech companies stands a good chance of reaching $3 trillion in market capitalization this week. Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)finished Friday with a valuation of $2.944 trillion, so all Wall Street needs to do now is add $56 billion to the iPhone maker's stock value and Apple (AAPL) will stand alone in the $3 trillion club.</p><p><blockquote>所有科技公司中最具标志性的公司本周的市值很有可能达到3万亿美元。苹果（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）周五收盘估值为2.944万亿美元，因此华尔街现在需要做的就是将这家iPhone制造商的股票价值增加560亿美元，苹果（AAPL）将在3万亿美元俱乐部中独树一帜。</blockquote></p><p> To put that amount in some perspective, Apple (AAPL) became the first company to hit $1 trillion in market cap in 2018--or, 42 years after Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak founded Apple (AAPL) in a garage in Cupertino, Calif. It then took Apple just until 2020 to reach $2 trillion in market cap. Right now, the only other company worth more than $2 trillion is Microsoft(NASDAQ:MSFT), which ended last week with a market cap of $2.57 trillion.</p><p><blockquote>从某种角度来看，苹果(AAPL)在2018年成为第一家市值达到1万亿美元的公司，也就是史蒂夫·乔布斯(Steve Jobs)和史蒂夫·沃兹尼亚克(Steve Wozniak)在库比蒂诺的车库里创立苹果(AAPL)42年后，加利福尼亚州。直到2020年，苹果的市值才达到2万亿美元。目前，唯一一家市值超过2万亿美元的公司是微软（纳斯达克股票代码：MSFT），该公司上周收盘市值为2.57万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> \"The Street is starting to better appreciate the robust fundamental story into 2022 for [Apple Chief Executive] Tim Cook &amp; Co.,\" said Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, in a research note on Sunday. \"Hitting $3 trillion is another watershed moment for Apple as the company continues to prove the doubters wrong with the renaissance of growth story playing out in Cupertino.\"</p><p><blockquote>Wedbush分析师Dan Ives在周日的一份研究报告中表示：“华尔街开始更好地认识到[苹果首席执行官]蒂姆·库克公司(Tim Cook&amp;Co.)2022年强劲的基本面。”“达到3万亿美元是苹果的另一个分水岭，因为该公司继续证明怀疑者对库比蒂诺复兴增长故事的看法是错误的。”</blockquote></p><p> While Apple's (AAPL) iPhone sales continue to be the biggest source of the company's strength--iPhones accounted for almost $39 billion of Apple's $83.4 billion in fiscal fourth-quarter sales--Ives said the \"linchpin\" of Apple's (AAPL) growing valuation is its services business.</p><p><blockquote>虽然苹果(AAPL)的iPhone销量仍然是该公司实力的最大来源——iPhone在苹果第四财季834亿美元的销售额中占了近390亿美元——但Ives表示，苹果(AAPL)增长的“关键”估值是其服务业务。</blockquote></p><p> Services, which include items such as sales from the App Store and subscriptions to everything from Apple TV+ to iCloud storage plans, brought in $18.3 billion in revenue in Apple's (AAPL) most-recent quarter. Ives estimates that Apple's (AAPL) services business&nbsp;\"is worth $1.5 trillion in the eyes of the Street,\" and is benefiting from being coupled with a hardware ecosystem that \"is in the midst of its strongest product cycle in over a decade, led by iPhone 13.\"</p><p><blockquote>苹果(AAPL)最近一个季度的服务收入为183亿美元，其中包括App Store的销售以及从苹果TV+到iCloud存储计划的订阅等项目。Ives估计，苹果(AAPL)的服务业务“在华尔街眼中价值1.5万亿美元”，并且受益于与硬件生态系统的结合，该生态系统“正处于十多年来最强劲的产品周期中，以iPhone 13为首。”</blockquote></p><p> Even issues related to component supplies that could impede Apple's (AAPL) path toward a market cap for $3 trillion or more are likely to be little more than minor speedbumps for the company to overcome, in Ives opinion.</p><p><blockquote>Ives认为，即使与零部件供应相关的问题可能会阻碍苹果(AAPL)实现3万亿美元或更高市值的道路，也可能只不过是该公司需要克服的小障碍。</blockquote></p><p> \"Supply shortages of roughly 15 million iPhone units globally remain an issue that should moderate into early 2022,\" Ives said. \"Importantly, the underlying demand story is our focus into 2022 and we believe is the ultimate driver of the stock going forward.\"</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯表示：“全球约1500万部iPhone的供应短缺仍然是一个问题，到2022年初应该会有所缓解。”“重要的是，潜在的需求故事是我们2022年的重点，我们相信这是该股未来发展的最终驱动力。”</blockquote></p><p> Ives estimates that Apple (AAPL) will sell more than 40 million iPhones during the end-of-the-year holiday season, and that China alone is set to see 15 million upgrades to the iPhone 13 during the quarter that concludes at the end of December.</p><p><blockquote>Ives估计，苹果(AAPL)在年底假期期间将售出超过4000万部iPhone，仅在中国，在截至年底的季度内，iPhone 13的升级量就将达到1500万部。十二月。</blockquote></p><p> Along with the iPhone, Ives said many signs point toward Apple (AAPL) rolling out its first augmented reality [AR] glasses by the summer of 2022, and that move could add $20 a share to the company's valuation. Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty also recently said that Apple (AAPL) should see success with its AR glasses due to its long-time&nbsp;track record of entering consumer markets with successful new products.</p><p><blockquote>Ives表示，除了iPhone之外，许多迹象表明苹果(AAPL)将在2022年夏季推出首款增强现实[AR]眼镜，此举可能会使该公司每股估值增加20美元。Morgan Stanley分析师Katy Huberty最近也表示，苹果(AAPL)的AR眼镜应该会取得成功，因为该公司长期以来一直以成功的新产品进入消费市场。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3779362-apple-nearing-watershed-moment-of-3-trillion-in-market-cap\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3779362-apple-nearing-watershed-moment-of-3-trillion-in-market-cap","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171394291","content_text":"As many companies begin to gear down for the Christmas and New Year holidays, there remains one tech stalwart that is on the brink of a milestone that no other company in history has achieved: Apple.\nJustin Sullivan/Getty Images News\nThe most-iconic of all tech companies stands a good chance of reaching $3 trillion in market capitalization this week. Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)finished Friday with a valuation of $2.944 trillion, so all Wall Street needs to do now is add $56 billion to the iPhone maker's stock value and Apple (AAPL) will stand alone in the $3 trillion club.\nTo put that amount in some perspective, Apple (AAPL) became the first company to hit $1 trillion in market cap in 2018--or, 42 years after Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak founded Apple (AAPL) in a garage in Cupertino, Calif. It then took Apple just until 2020 to reach $2 trillion in market cap. Right now, the only other company worth more than $2 trillion is Microsoft(NASDAQ:MSFT), which ended last week with a market cap of $2.57 trillion.\n\"The Street is starting to better appreciate the robust fundamental story into 2022 for [Apple Chief Executive] Tim Cook & Co.,\" said Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, in a research note on Sunday. \"Hitting $3 trillion is another watershed moment for Apple as the company continues to prove the doubters wrong with the renaissance of growth story playing out in Cupertino.\"\nWhile Apple's (AAPL) iPhone sales continue to be the biggest source of the company's strength--iPhones accounted for almost $39 billion of Apple's $83.4 billion in fiscal fourth-quarter sales--Ives said the \"linchpin\" of Apple's (AAPL) growing valuation is its services business.\nServices, which include items such as sales from the App Store and subscriptions to everything from Apple TV+ to iCloud storage plans, brought in $18.3 billion in revenue in Apple's (AAPL) most-recent quarter. Ives estimates that Apple's (AAPL) services business \"is worth $1.5 trillion in the eyes of the Street,\" and is benefiting from being coupled with a hardware ecosystem that \"is in the midst of its strongest product cycle in over a decade, led by iPhone 13.\"\nEven issues related to component supplies that could impede Apple's (AAPL) path toward a market cap for $3 trillion or more are likely to be little more than minor speedbumps for the company to overcome, in Ives opinion.\n\"Supply shortages of roughly 15 million iPhone units globally remain an issue that should moderate into early 2022,\" Ives said. \"Importantly, the underlying demand story is our focus into 2022 and we believe is the ultimate driver of the stock going forward.\"\nIves estimates that Apple (AAPL) will sell more than 40 million iPhones during the end-of-the-year holiday season, and that China alone is set to see 15 million upgrades to the iPhone 13 during the quarter that concludes at the end of December.\nAlong with the iPhone, Ives said many signs point toward Apple (AAPL) rolling out its first augmented reality [AR] glasses by the summer of 2022, and that move could add $20 a share to the company's valuation. Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty also recently said that Apple (AAPL) should see success with its AR glasses due to its long-time track record of entering consumer markets with successful new products.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4753,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":604814765,"gmtCreate":1639369380168,"gmtModify":1639369380550,"author":{"id":"3582617881962608","authorId":"3582617881962608","name":"Ahsiang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/310f96e7696af85ae33ece774a483d15","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582617881962608","authorIdStr":"3582617881962608"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls&nbsp;","listText":"Like pls&nbsp;","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604814765","repostId":"1169099899","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169099899","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639367858,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1169099899?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-13 11:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169099899","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe short-term correction has probably not ended yet.\nMacroeconomic indicators signal furth","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The short-term correction has probably not ended yet.</li>  <li>Macroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.</li>  <li>The Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35de74b68a683fda3b95d3fd873bc678\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>MundusImages/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>短期回调很可能还没有结束。</li><li>尽管短期存在回调潜力，但宏观经济指标表明股市将进一步上涨。</li><li>美联储可能会比许多人预期更快地面临宽松货币立场的严峻挑战。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>MundusImages/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.</p><p><blockquote>商业周期正在成熟，但尚未结束。根据Stouff capital的估计，它可能正在进入周期后期阶段。他们的美国长期宏观指数指标达到了90%的阈值，这是经济衰退的早期指标。这是相关的，因为经济衰退对于股市熊市来说有着完美的记录。过去170年的每一次NBER衰退都涉及美国股市的熊市。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631eab7d5b7d2c62994d942fc86cdcfc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"511\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Refinitiv、Stouff Capital）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Nonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，进入商业周期后期并不意味着股市处于熊市。相反，股票在上个世纪商业周期的后期发展积极。如果投资者相信统计证据，商业周期的衰退阶段是他们想要避开的时间窗口。历史上可靠的其他领先指标尚未表明经济衰退即将来临。在上次报告之前，劳动力市场一直是建设性的。此外，世界大型企业联合会领先经济指数（LEI）的最新读数创下历史新高。从历史上看，劳动力市场和LEI比经济提前几个月达到周期峰值。大多数情况下，在美国经济陷入衰退之前，这两个指数甚至先于美国股市见顶。同样，收益率曲线尚未闪烁衰退信号。从历史上看，它在经济衰退到来前不久反转，也是周期性股市高点的领先指标。今天的情况也不是这样。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fed5b5760550aa77356656aee41f1d0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our&nbsp;mid-November article&nbsp;here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.</p><p><blockquote>然而，截至12月初，股市从近期高点回调了5%-10%。正如我们在11月中旬关于Seeking Alpha的文章中所解释的那样，下跌并不令人意外，因为市场正在火热。情绪和技术指标表明即将出现5%-10%的回调。尽管如此，调整可能不会在短期内完成。在接下来的几周里，更多的疲软仍然是基本情况。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.</p><p><blockquote>此外，当前的周期还有一些奇特之处。它正以前所未有的速度展开。因此，周期后期可能会让许多人感到惊讶，因为它不会像通常那样持续很长时间。此外，随着通胀迅速上升，当前环境对央行来说可能极具挑战性。上图显示，欧洲的采购价格比去年上涨了20%以上。这是该指数自70年代以来的最大涨幅。70年代是布雷顿森林汇率体系解体后最近一个出现两位数通胀的时期。美国的通胀压力也在加大。由于供应短缺，不仅商品变得昂贵，服务最近也加入了这一行列。这一发展对央行来说是一个问题，因为它们没有有效的工具来应对供应方短缺。因此，我们不太可能在短期内看到货币宽松。近年来，这一直是股市的阻力。再说一次，这不是肇事逃逸事件，我们还没有到那一步。从历史上看，股市通常在首次加息后很久就会达到周期性高点。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfdb33a6b0c068438eae297a0bd32d1d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Technicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&amp;P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.</p><p><blockquote>技术面支持上述宏观证据。大多数主要指数可能从11月高点展开看跌艾略特波浪。标普500最好被视为延伸到12月6日低点的领先对角线。这是一个信号，表明短期调整可能尚未结束。相反，该形态可能会演变为朝向4250-4390的三浪修正腿。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> All in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，短期内有可能造成更多损害。技术证据暗示，在看到下一次可持续上涨之前，4390 S/R将再次受到攻击。时间会证明这是否是周期结束前的最后一次上涨。上面讨论的一些宏观指标可能会在事情变糟之前提供进一步的暗示。最重要的是，尽管短期内有进一步回调的潜力，但牛市趋势很可能完好无损。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-13 11:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The short-term correction has probably not ended yet.</li>  <li>Macroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.</li>  <li>The Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35de74b68a683fda3b95d3fd873bc678\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>MundusImages/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>短期回调很可能还没有结束。</li><li>尽管短期存在回调潜力，但宏观经济指标表明股市将进一步上涨。</li><li>美联储可能会比许多人预期更快地面临宽松货币立场的严峻挑战。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>MundusImages/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.</p><p><blockquote>商业周期正在成熟，但尚未结束。根据Stouff capital的估计，它可能正在进入周期后期阶段。他们的美国长期宏观指数指标达到了90%的阈值，这是经济衰退的早期指标。这是相关的，因为经济衰退对于股市熊市来说有着完美的记录。过去170年的每一次NBER衰退都涉及美国股市的熊市。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631eab7d5b7d2c62994d942fc86cdcfc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"511\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Refinitiv、Stouff Capital）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Nonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，进入商业周期后期并不意味着股市处于熊市。相反，股票在上个世纪商业周期的后期发展积极。如果投资者相信统计证据，商业周期的衰退阶段是他们想要避开的时间窗口。历史上可靠的其他领先指标尚未表明经济衰退即将来临。在上次报告之前，劳动力市场一直是建设性的。此外，世界大型企业联合会领先经济指数（LEI）的最新读数创下历史新高。从历史上看，劳动力市场和LEI比经济提前几个月达到周期峰值。大多数情况下，在美国经济陷入衰退之前，这两个指数甚至先于美国股市见顶。同样，收益率曲线尚未闪烁衰退信号。从历史上看，它在经济衰退到来前不久反转，也是周期性股市高点的领先指标。今天的情况也不是这样。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fed5b5760550aa77356656aee41f1d0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our&nbsp;mid-November article&nbsp;here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.</p><p><blockquote>然而，截至12月初，股市从近期高点回调了5%-10%。正如我们在11月中旬关于Seeking Alpha的文章中所解释的那样，下跌并不令人意外，因为市场正在火热。情绪和技术指标表明即将出现5%-10%的回调。尽管如此，调整可能不会在短期内完成。在接下来的几周里，更多的疲软仍然是基本情况。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.</p><p><blockquote>此外，当前的周期还有一些奇特之处。它正以前所未有的速度展开。因此，周期后期可能会让许多人感到惊讶，因为它不会像通常那样持续很长时间。此外，随着通胀迅速上升，当前环境对央行来说可能极具挑战性。上图显示，欧洲的采购价格比去年上涨了20%以上。这是该指数自70年代以来的最大涨幅。70年代是布雷顿森林汇率体系解体后最近一个出现两位数通胀的时期。美国的通胀压力也在加大。由于供应短缺，不仅商品变得昂贵，服务最近也加入了这一行列。这一发展对央行来说是一个问题，因为它们没有有效的工具来应对供应方短缺。因此，我们不太可能在短期内看到货币宽松。近年来，这一直是股市的阻力。再说一次，这不是肇事逃逸事件，我们还没有到那一步。从历史上看，股市通常在首次加息后很久就会达到周期性高点。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfdb33a6b0c068438eae297a0bd32d1d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Technicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&amp;P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.</p><p><blockquote>技术面支持上述宏观证据。大多数主要指数可能从11月高点展开看跌艾略特波浪。标普500最好被视为延伸到12月6日低点的领先对角线。这是一个信号，表明短期调整可能尚未结束。相反，该形态可能会演变为朝向4250-4390的三浪修正腿。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> All in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，短期内有可能造成更多损害。技术证据暗示，在看到下一次可持续上涨之前，4390 S/R将再次受到攻击。时间会证明这是否是周期结束前的最后一次上涨。上面讨论的一些宏观指标可能会在事情变糟之前提供进一步的暗示。最重要的是，尽管短期内有进一步回调的潜力，但牛市趋势很可能完好无损。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474830-bull-run-enters-late-cycle\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474830-bull-run-enters-late-cycle","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169099899","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe short-term correction has probably not ended yet.\nMacroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.\nThe Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.\n\nMundusImages/E+ via Getty Images\nThe business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.\n(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)\nNonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.\n(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)\nHowever, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our mid-November article here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.\nMoreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.\n(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)\nTechnicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.\nAll in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2480,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":604814510,"gmtCreate":1639369359314,"gmtModify":1639369359698,"author":{"id":"3582617881962608","authorId":"3582617881962608","name":"Ahsiang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/310f96e7696af85ae33ece774a483d15","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582617881962608","authorIdStr":"3582617881962608"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604814510","repostId":"1171271872","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1171271872","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639348466,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1171271872?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-13 06:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Rivian,Adobe,FedEx,Lennar,Campbell Soup,and Other Stocks to Watch This Week<blockquote>Rivian、Adobe、联邦快递、Lennar、金宝汤等本周值得关注的股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171271872","media":"Barrons","summary":"The main event for investors this week will be the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee’s last meeting of 2021. Recent commentary from officials has leaned more hawkish, setting up a potential announcement of plans to accelerate monthly asset purchase tapering.The Federal Open Market Committee’s two-day meeting takes place on Tuesday and Wednesday.Earnings reports this week are few, but will include Campbell Soup on Tuesday;Lennar,Accenture,FedEx,Rivian Automotive, and Adobe on Thursday; and","content":"<p>The main event for investors this week will be the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee’s&nbsp;last meeting of 2021. Recent commentary from officials has leaned more hawkish, setting up a potential announcement of plans to accelerate monthly asset purchase tapering.</p><p><blockquote>本周投资者的主要事件将是美联储利率制定委员会2021年的最后一次会议。官员们最近的评论更加鹰派，可能会宣布加速每月资产购买缩减的计划。</blockquote></p><p> The Federal Open Market Committee’s two-day meeting takes place on Tuesday and Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会为期两天的会议将于周二和周三举行。</blockquote></p><p> Earnings reports this week are few, but will include&nbsp;Campbell Soup&nbsp;on Tuesday;Lennar,Accenture,FedEx,Rivian&nbsp;Automotive, and&nbsp;Adobe&nbsp;on Thursday; and&nbsp;Darden Restaurants&nbsp;on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>本周的财报很少，但周二将包括金宝汤；Lennar、Accenture、FedEx、Rivian汽车和Adobe周四；周五还有达顿餐厅。</blockquote></p><p> Economic data coming out this week includes the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ producer price index for November on Tuesday. Economists expect a 0.55% month-over-month rise for the headline index and a 0.4% gain for the core PPI. Those would both roughly match October’s pace of producer inflation.</p><p><blockquote>本周公布的经济数据包括美国劳工统计局周二公布的11月份生产者价格指数。经济学家预计整体指数环比上涨0.55%，核心PPI上涨0.4%。这两者都与10月份的生产者通胀速度大致相当。</blockquote></p><p> Other data releases include the National Federation of Independent Businesses’ sentiment&nbsp;index on Tuesday, November retail-sales spending from the Census Bureau on Wednesday, and the November housing starts on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>其他发布的数据包括周二全国独立企业联合会的信心指数、周三人口普查局公布的11月零售支出以及周四公布的11月新屋开工率。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Monday 12/13</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期一12/13</b></blockquote></p><p> J.Jill&nbsp;and&nbsp;PHX Minerals&nbsp;host earnings conference calls.</p><p><blockquote>J.Jill和PHX Minerals在评级举办收益会议。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tuesday 12/14</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二12/14</b></blockquote></p><p> Campbell Soup, Barnes Group, and&nbsp;Avaya Holdings&nbsp;host investor days.</p><p><blockquote>金宝汤、巴恩斯集团和Avaya Holdings举办投资者日。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bureau of Labor</b>&nbsp;Statistics releases the producer price index for November. Consensus estimate is for a 0.55% month-over-month rise, and for the core PPI, which excludes food and energy, to gain 0.4%. This compares with increases of 0.6% and 0.4%, respectively, in October.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工局</b>统计局发布11月份生产者价格指数。市场普遍预计环比上涨0.55%，不包括食品和能源的核心PPI将上涨0.4%。相比之下，10月份的增幅分别为0.6%和0.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The National Federation</b>&nbsp;of Independent Businesses reports its index, which surveys about 5,000 small-business owners across the country, for November. Expectations call for a reading of 98.3, compared with 98.2 in October.</p><p><blockquote><b>全国联合会</b>独立企业报告了11月份的指数，该指数调查了全国约5,000名小企业主。预期看涨期权为98.3，而10月份为98.2。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wednesday 12/15</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三12/15</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Federal Open Market Committee</b> concludes its two-day meeting, when policy makers will discuss accelerating the timetable for tapering monthly securities purchases.</p><p><blockquote><b>联邦公开市场委员会</b>结束了为期两天的会议，届时政策制定者将讨论加快缩减月度证券购买的时间表。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The BLS reports</b> export and import price data for November. Expectations are for a 0.5% month-over-month rise in export prices, while import prices are seen increasing 0.5%. This compares with gains of 1.5% and 1.2%, respectively, in October.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工统计局报告</b>11月进出口价格数据。预计出口价格环比上涨0.5%，而进口价格预计上涨0.5%。相比之下，10月份的涨幅分别为1.5%和1.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The National Association</b> of Home Builders releases its NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for December. Consensus estimate is for an 84 reading, compared with an 83 reading in November. The index peaked at 90 late last year, and home builders remain bullish on the housing market.</p><p><blockquote><b>全国协会</b>房屋建筑商协会发布了12月份NAHB/富国银行住房市场指数。普遍估计读数为84，而11月份的读数为83。该指数去年年底达到90的峰值，房屋建筑商仍然看好房地产市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau</b> reports on retail-sales spending for November. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted 0.7% month-over-month increase in retail sales, compared with a 1.7% rise in October. Excluding autos, spending is seen rising 0.8%, compared with 1.7% in the previous period.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>11月份零售支出报告。预计经季节调整后零售额环比增长0.7%，而10月份为增长1.7%。不包括汽车在内，支出预计将增长0.8%，而上一时期为1.7%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Thursday 12/16</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四12/16</b></blockquote></p><p> Heico,Lennar, Accenture, FedEx, Jabil, Adobe, Rivian Automotive, and Nordson are among companies hosting earnings conference calls.</p><p><blockquote>Heico、Lennar、Accenture、FedEx、Jabil、Adobe、Rivian汽车和Nordson等公司在评级举办财报会议。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau</b>releases its New Residential Construction report for November. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts is expected to be 1.563 million units, compared with 1.52 million in October. A housing start is counted when excavation begins on a home. Permits issued for new-home construction are expected to be 1.655 million, compared with 1.653 million in October.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>发布11月份新的住宅建设报告。季调后成屋开工年率料为156.3万套，10月为152万套。当房屋开始挖掘时，房屋开工被计算在内。新房建设许可证预计为165.5万份，而10月份为165.3万份。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bank of England</b> announces its interest-rate decision and publishes the minutes of the meeting.</p><p><blockquote><b>英格兰银行</b>宣布利率决定并公布会议记录。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Federal Reserve</b> releases industrial production data for November. Economists are looking for a 0.6% rise, after a 1.6% increase in October. Capacity utilization is expected at 76.8, roughly in line with October’s 76.4%.</p><p><blockquote><b>美联储</b>公布11月份工业生产数据。继10月份增长1.6%后，经济学家预计增长0.6%。产能利用率预计为76.8，与10月份的76.4%大致一致。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Friday 12/17</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期五12/17</b></blockquote></p><p> Steelcase,Darden Restaurants, and&nbsp;Quanex Building Products&nbsp;host earnings conference calls.</p><p><blockquote>Steelcase、Darden Restaurants和Quanex Building Products在评级举办收益会议。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Rivian,Adobe,FedEx,Lennar,Campbell Soup,and Other Stocks to Watch This Week<blockquote>Rivian、Adobe、联邦快递、Lennar、金宝汤等本周值得关注的股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRivian,Adobe,FedEx,Lennar,Campbell Soup,and Other Stocks to Watch This Week<blockquote>Rivian、Adobe、联邦快递、Lennar、金宝汤等本周值得关注的股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-13 06:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The main event for investors this week will be the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee’s&nbsp;last meeting of 2021. Recent commentary from officials has leaned more hawkish, setting up a potential announcement of plans to accelerate monthly asset purchase tapering.</p><p><blockquote>本周投资者的主要事件将是美联储利率制定委员会2021年的最后一次会议。官员们最近的评论更加鹰派，可能会宣布加速每月资产购买缩减的计划。</blockquote></p><p> The Federal Open Market Committee’s two-day meeting takes place on Tuesday and Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会为期两天的会议将于周二和周三举行。</blockquote></p><p> Earnings reports this week are few, but will include&nbsp;Campbell Soup&nbsp;on Tuesday;Lennar,Accenture,FedEx,Rivian&nbsp;Automotive, and&nbsp;Adobe&nbsp;on Thursday; and&nbsp;Darden Restaurants&nbsp;on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>本周的财报很少，但周二将包括金宝汤；Lennar、Accenture、FedEx、Rivian汽车和Adobe周四；周五还有达顿餐厅。</blockquote></p><p> Economic data coming out this week includes the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ producer price index for November on Tuesday. Economists expect a 0.55% month-over-month rise for the headline index and a 0.4% gain for the core PPI. Those would both roughly match October’s pace of producer inflation.</p><p><blockquote>本周公布的经济数据包括美国劳工统计局周二公布的11月份生产者价格指数。经济学家预计整体指数环比上涨0.55%，核心PPI上涨0.4%。这两者都与10月份的生产者通胀速度大致相当。</blockquote></p><p> Other data releases include the National Federation of Independent Businesses’ sentiment&nbsp;index on Tuesday, November retail-sales spending from the Census Bureau on Wednesday, and the November housing starts on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>其他发布的数据包括周二全国独立企业联合会的信心指数、周三人口普查局公布的11月零售支出以及周四公布的11月新屋开工率。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Monday 12/13</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期一12/13</b></blockquote></p><p> J.Jill&nbsp;and&nbsp;PHX Minerals&nbsp;host earnings conference calls.</p><p><blockquote>J.Jill和PHX Minerals在评级举办收益会议。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tuesday 12/14</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二12/14</b></blockquote></p><p> Campbell Soup, Barnes Group, and&nbsp;Avaya Holdings&nbsp;host investor days.</p><p><blockquote>金宝汤、巴恩斯集团和Avaya Holdings举办投资者日。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bureau of Labor</b>&nbsp;Statistics releases the producer price index for November. Consensus estimate is for a 0.55% month-over-month rise, and for the core PPI, which excludes food and energy, to gain 0.4%. This compares with increases of 0.6% and 0.4%, respectively, in October.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工局</b>统计局发布11月份生产者价格指数。市场普遍预计环比上涨0.55%，不包括食品和能源的核心PPI将上涨0.4%。相比之下，10月份的增幅分别为0.6%和0.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The National Federation</b>&nbsp;of Independent Businesses reports its index, which surveys about 5,000 small-business owners across the country, for November. Expectations call for a reading of 98.3, compared with 98.2 in October.</p><p><blockquote><b>全国联合会</b>独立企业报告了11月份的指数，该指数调查了全国约5,000名小企业主。预期看涨期权为98.3，而10月份为98.2。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wednesday 12/15</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三12/15</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Federal Open Market Committee</b> concludes its two-day meeting, when policy makers will discuss accelerating the timetable for tapering monthly securities purchases.</p><p><blockquote><b>联邦公开市场委员会</b>结束了为期两天的会议，届时政策制定者将讨论加快缩减月度证券购买的时间表。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The BLS reports</b> export and import price data for November. Expectations are for a 0.5% month-over-month rise in export prices, while import prices are seen increasing 0.5%. This compares with gains of 1.5% and 1.2%, respectively, in October.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工统计局报告</b>11月进出口价格数据。预计出口价格环比上涨0.5%，而进口价格预计上涨0.5%。相比之下，10月份的涨幅分别为1.5%和1.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The National Association</b> of Home Builders releases its NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for December. Consensus estimate is for an 84 reading, compared with an 83 reading in November. The index peaked at 90 late last year, and home builders remain bullish on the housing market.</p><p><blockquote><b>全国协会</b>房屋建筑商协会发布了12月份NAHB/富国银行住房市场指数。普遍估计读数为84，而11月份的读数为83。该指数去年年底达到90的峰值，房屋建筑商仍然看好房地产市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau</b> reports on retail-sales spending for November. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted 0.7% month-over-month increase in retail sales, compared with a 1.7% rise in October. Excluding autos, spending is seen rising 0.8%, compared with 1.7% in the previous period.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>11月份零售支出报告。预计经季节调整后零售额环比增长0.7%，而10月份为增长1.7%。不包括汽车在内，支出预计将增长0.8%，而上一时期为1.7%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Thursday 12/16</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四12/16</b></blockquote></p><p> Heico,Lennar, Accenture, FedEx, Jabil, Adobe, Rivian Automotive, and Nordson are among companies hosting earnings conference calls.</p><p><blockquote>Heico、Lennar、Accenture、FedEx、Jabil、Adobe、Rivian汽车和Nordson等公司在评级举办财报会议。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau</b>releases its New Residential Construction report for November. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts is expected to be 1.563 million units, compared with 1.52 million in October. A housing start is counted when excavation begins on a home. Permits issued for new-home construction are expected to be 1.655 million, compared with 1.653 million in October.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>发布11月份新的住宅建设报告。季调后成屋开工年率料为156.3万套，10月为152万套。当房屋开始挖掘时，房屋开工被计算在内。新房建设许可证预计为165.5万份，而10月份为165.3万份。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bank of England</b> announces its interest-rate decision and publishes the minutes of the meeting.</p><p><blockquote><b>英格兰银行</b>宣布利率决定并公布会议记录。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Federal Reserve</b> releases industrial production data for November. Economists are looking for a 0.6% rise, after a 1.6% increase in October. Capacity utilization is expected at 76.8, roughly in line with October’s 76.4%.</p><p><blockquote><b>美联储</b>公布11月份工业生产数据。继10月份增长1.6%后，经济学家预计增长0.6%。产能利用率预计为76.8，与10月份的76.4%大致一致。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Friday 12/17</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期五12/17</b></blockquote></p><p> Steelcase,Darden Restaurants, and&nbsp;Quanex Building Products&nbsp;host earnings conference calls.</p><p><blockquote>Steelcase、Darden Restaurants和Quanex Building Products在评级举办收益会议。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-to-watch-this-week-fedex-rivian-lennar-campbell-adobe-51639330550?mod=hp_LEAD_3\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DRI":"达登饭店","HEI":"海科航空","RIVN":"Rivian Automotive, Inc.","ADBE":"Adobe",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","PHX":"潘汉德尔油气","ACN":"埃森哲","SCS":"Steelcase Inc.",".DJI":"道琼斯","LEN":"莱纳建筑公司","JILL":"J.Jill Inc.","CPB":"金宝汤","FDX":"联邦快递"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-to-watch-this-week-fedex-rivian-lennar-campbell-adobe-51639330550?mod=hp_LEAD_3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171271872","content_text":"The main event for investors this week will be the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee’s last meeting of 2021. Recent commentary from officials has leaned more hawkish, setting up a potential announcement of plans to accelerate monthly asset purchase tapering.\nThe Federal Open Market Committee’s two-day meeting takes place on Tuesday and Wednesday.\nEarnings reports this week are few, but will include Campbell Soup on Tuesday;Lennar,Accenture,FedEx,Rivian Automotive, and Adobe on Thursday; and Darden Restaurants on Friday.\nEconomic data coming out this week includes the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ producer price index for November on Tuesday. Economists expect a 0.55% month-over-month rise for the headline index and a 0.4% gain for the core PPI. Those would both roughly match October’s pace of producer inflation.\nOther data releases include the National Federation of Independent Businesses’ sentiment index on Tuesday, November retail-sales spending from the Census Bureau on Wednesday, and the November housing starts on Thursday.\nMonday 12/13\nJ.Jill and PHX Minerals host earnings conference calls.\nTuesday 12/14\nCampbell Soup, Barnes Group, and Avaya Holdings host investor days.\nThe Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the producer price index for November. Consensus estimate is for a 0.55% month-over-month rise, and for the core PPI, which excludes food and energy, to gain 0.4%. This compares with increases of 0.6% and 0.4%, respectively, in October.\nThe National Federation of Independent Businesses reports its index, which surveys about 5,000 small-business owners across the country, for November. Expectations call for a reading of 98.3, compared with 98.2 in October.\nWednesday 12/15\nThe Federal Open Market Committee concludes its two-day meeting, when policy makers will discuss accelerating the timetable for tapering monthly securities purchases.\nThe BLS reports export and import price data for November. Expectations are for a 0.5% month-over-month rise in export prices, while import prices are seen increasing 0.5%. This compares with gains of 1.5% and 1.2%, respectively, in October.\nThe National Association of Home Builders releases its NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for December. Consensus estimate is for an 84 reading, compared with an 83 reading in November. The index peaked at 90 late last year, and home builders remain bullish on the housing market.\nThe Census Bureau reports on retail-sales spending for November. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted 0.7% month-over-month increase in retail sales, compared with a 1.7% rise in October. Excluding autos, spending is seen rising 0.8%, compared with 1.7% in the previous period.\nThursday 12/16\nHeico,Lennar, Accenture, FedEx, Jabil, Adobe, Rivian Automotive, and Nordson are among companies hosting earnings conference calls.\nThe Census Bureaureleases its New Residential Construction report for November. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts is expected to be 1.563 million units, compared with 1.52 million in October. A housing start is counted when excavation begins on a home. Permits issued for new-home construction are expected to be 1.655 million, compared with 1.653 million in October.\nThe Bank of England announces its interest-rate decision and publishes the minutes of the meeting.\nThe Federal Reserve releases industrial production data for November. Economists are looking for a 0.6% rise, after a 1.6% increase in October. Capacity utilization is expected at 76.8, roughly in line with October’s 76.4%.\nFriday 12/17\nSteelcase,Darden Restaurants, and Quanex Building Products host earnings conference calls.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SCS":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"LEN":0.9,"DRI":0.9,"HEI":0.9,"AVYA":0.9,"PHX":0.9,"CPB":0.9,"FDX":0.9,"ADBE":0.9,"RIVN":0.9,"ACN":0.9,"JILL":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3717,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":604030772,"gmtCreate":1639277529843,"gmtModify":1639277530228,"author":{"id":"3582617881962608","authorId":"3582617881962608","name":"Ahsiang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/310f96e7696af85ae33ece774a483d15","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582617881962608","authorIdStr":"3582617881962608"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sure bo","listText":"Sure bo","text":"Sure 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pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/605557917","repostId":"2190767366","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":844,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":605397069,"gmtCreate":1639110163453,"gmtModify":1639110164921,"author":{"id":"3582617881962608","authorId":"3582617881962608","name":"Ahsiang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/310f96e7696af85ae33ece774a483d15","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582617881962608","authorIdStr":"3582617881962608"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Gogogo","listText":"Gogogo","text":"Gogogo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/605397069","repostId":"1185791394","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185791394","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639108779,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1185791394?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-10 11:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir Stock May Be Down, But It’s Definitely Not Out<blockquote>Palantir股票可能下跌，但绝对没有出局</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185791394","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"There’s a school of thought that artificial intelligence and cybersecurity are a winning combination","content":"<p><div> There’s a school of thought that artificial intelligence and cybersecurity are a winning combination for a company to thrive in 2021. But Palantir Technologies(NYSE:PLTR) has defied that way of ...</p><p><blockquote><div>有一种观点认为，人工智能和网络安全是一家公司在2021年蓬勃发展的成功组合。但Palantir Technologies（纽约证券交易所股票代码：PLTR）却无视这种方式……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/pltr-stock-may-be-down-but-its-definitely-not-out/\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/pltr-stock-may-be-down-but-its-definitely-not-out/\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir Stock May Be Down, But It’s Definitely Not Out<blockquote>Palantir股票可能下跌，但绝对没有出局</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir Stock May Be Down, But It’s Definitely Not Out<blockquote>Palantir股票可能下跌，但绝对没有出局</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">InvestorPlace</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-10 11:59</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> There’s a school of thought that artificial intelligence and cybersecurity are a winning combination for a company to thrive in 2021. But Palantir Technologies(NYSE:PLTR) has defied that way of ...</p><p><blockquote><div>有一种观点认为，人工智能和网络安全是一家公司在2021年蓬勃发展的成功组合。但Palantir Technologies（纽约证券交易所股票代码：PLTR）却无视这种方式……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/pltr-stock-may-be-down-but-its-definitely-not-out/\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/pltr-stock-may-be-down-but-its-definitely-not-out/\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/pltr-stock-may-be-down-but-its-definitely-not-out/\">InvestorPlace</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/pltr-stock-may-be-down-but-its-definitely-not-out/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185791394","content_text":"There’s a school of thought that artificial intelligence and cybersecurity are a winning combination for a company to thrive in 2021. But Palantir Technologies(NYSE:PLTR) has defied that way of thinking as of late. PLTR stock has been a major disappointment for investors so far this year.\nSince hitting an all-time high of $45 in late January, shares of the big data analytics company are down roughly 57%. In the past month alone, PLTR stock is down nearly 28%.\nThat includes the post-earnings sell-off following the company’s third-quarter report, despite Palantir beating revenue expectations and delivering a strong outlook for the current quarter.\nCan PLTR stock turn its fortunes around in 2022? Let’s take a closer look.\nPalantir at a Glance\nFounded by Peter Thiel in 2003, Palantir Technologies went public via a direct listing in September 2020 and currently has a market cap of $38.8 billion. The company is headquartered in Denver and actually gets its name from J. R. R. Tolkien’s The Lord of the Rings series.“Palantiri” were magical and indestructible crystal balls that were used to communicate and see other parts of that fabled world.\nWhat Palantir does isn’t magical, but it is pretty cool. Palantir’s software allows government and private sector businesses to analyze and manage massive amounts of data, detecting meaningful patterns and connections. Its data sets are considered to be highly secure compared to its peers, which is why the company is sometimes considered a cybersecurity play.\nSome of Palantir’s first clients were U.S. intelligence agencies and the Pentagon. Over the past few years, the company has been growing its client base to include private firms, other federal agencies, and some state and local governments. For example, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services uses Palantir software to track vaccine distribution.\nPalantir Delivers a Strong Q3 Earnings Report\nThe company’s third-quarter earnings report should have been a positive for PLTR stock. Palantir posted $392 million in revenue, while analysts had expected only $385 million. Earnings of 4 cents per share met expectations.\nRevenue was up 36% from the same quarter a year ago. However, some investors may have been disappointed as the previous two quarters saw 49% year-over-year growth.\nFor the fourth quarter, management expects revenue to increase 30% to $418 million, which was ahead of the consensus estimate of $402 million. Palantir projects full-year revenue of $1.53 billion, which would be a year-over-year increase of 40%. Through 2025, management believes it can grow revenue at least 30% annually.\nThe company used its earnings call to promote its new platform, Apollo, which it described as a new continuous delivery system that brings software-as-a-service (SaaS) management to its platforms. COO Shyam Sankar stated:\n\n Once again, we are building five years ahead of the market, software shamans building technology that will meet its moment. With our latest investments, you will be able to develop streaming pipelines in Foundry that you then package up, version, and continuously deploy to Edge compute infrastructure, be it a Humvee, a satellite, a 5G base station to enable real-time processing of large amounts of data in a decentralized efficient manner. These pipelines, they’ll be versioned, upgrade, managed, and orchestrated by Apollo.\n\nDespite the revenue beat and the promotion of the Apollo platform, PLTR stock fell by more than 9% immediately after the earnings report. And it has continued lower ever since. Some of that slide can be attributed to the market’s drag on tech stocks. But investors also appear concerned that Palantir is seeing slower growth.\nKeep an Eye on Recent Announcements\nWhile growth is slowing, investors should be cheered by a series of announcements that came out recently. These include:\n\nPalantir and Merck KGaA announced a partnership to address the global semiconductor shortage. The companies are developing an AI-infused platform that will help firms navigate the supply chain and reduce time to market.\nPalantir and Babylon Holdings(NYSE:BBLN) announced“substantial progress”on their work to use data to improve clinical care for Babylon’s healthcare clients.\nPalantir won a$43 million federal government contract with the Space Command’s Cross-Mission Ground & Communications Enterprise.\nPalantir and Kinder Morgan(NYSE:KMI) announced a multi-year deal in which Kinder Morgan will use Palantir’s platform to support its infrastructure and improve data analysis, grid integrity and pricing.\n\nAnd those are just the announcements from the past week or so. I expect similar headlines to continue to roll in.\nThe Bottom Line on PLTR Stock\nPLTR stock made a huge run higher into early January but has been struggling ever since. However, if you’re looking for a long-term cybersecurity and AI play, this is a solid pick. You’ll just have to be patient.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":781,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":605394411,"gmtCreate":1639110154754,"gmtModify":1639110156108,"author":{"id":"3582617881962608","authorId":"3582617881962608","name":"Ahsiang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/310f96e7696af85ae33ece774a483d15","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582617881962608","authorIdStr":"3582617881962608"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/605394411","repostId":"2190964556","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":977,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":602299097,"gmtCreate":1639023359114,"gmtModify":1639023359482,"author":{"id":"3582617881962608","authorId":"3582617881962608","name":"Ahsiang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/310f96e7696af85ae33ece774a483d15","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582617881962608","authorIdStr":"3582617881962608"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Gogogogogogogo","listText":"Gogogogogogogo","text":"Gogogogogogogo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602299097","repostId":"2189695656","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":978,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":602207425,"gmtCreate":1639023220909,"gmtModify":1639023221208,"author":{"id":"3582617881962608","authorId":"3582617881962608","name":"Ahsiang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/310f96e7696af85ae33ece774a483d15","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582617881962608","authorIdStr":"3582617881962608"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Gogogo","listText":"Gogogo","text":"Gogogo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602207425","repostId":"2190694645","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":992,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":602207240,"gmtCreate":1639023206652,"gmtModify":1639023206992,"author":{"id":"3582617881962608","authorId":"3582617881962608","name":"Ahsiang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/310f96e7696af85ae33ece774a483d15","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582617881962608","authorIdStr":"3582617881962608"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pwr","listText":"Pwr","text":"Pwr","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602207240","repostId":"2190693325","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1462,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":866706286,"gmtCreate":1632801945445,"gmtModify":1632801945541,"author":{"id":"3582617881962608","authorId":"3582617881962608","name":"Ahsiang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/310f96e7696af85ae33ece774a483d15","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582617881962608","authorIdStr":"3582617881962608"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":14,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/866706286","repostId":"1129085736","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129085736","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632800151,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1129085736?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-28 11:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why stocks could lose popularity as the market’s ‘presidential election cycle’ enters its second year<blockquote>为什么随着市场“总统选举周期”进入第二年，股市可能会失去人气</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129085736","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Stock returns typically weaken in the second year of a U.S. president’s four-year term.\n\nShould inve","content":"<p>  <b>Stock returns typically weaken in the second year of a U.S. president’s four-year term.</b>  Should investors be worried that the second year of the “presidential election cycle” is about to begin? Followers of the cycle answer “yes,” since second years of the cycle are the worst, on average, of a U.S. president’s four-year term.</p><p><blockquote><b>在美国总统四年任期的第二年，股票回报率通常会减弱。</b>投资者是否应该担心“总统选举周期”的第二年即将开始？周期的追随者回答“是”，因为周期的第二年平均是美国总统四年任期中最糟糕的。</blockquote></p><p> Since the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.21% was created in 1896, the Dow’s average price-only return in non-second years has been more than nine percentage points higher than in second years.</p><p><blockquote>自道琼斯工业平均指数道琼斯（+0.21%）于1896年创立以来，道琼斯指数在非第二年的平均纯价格回报率比第二年高出9个百分点以上。</blockquote></p><p> This result is not statistically significant, however. There is such wide variability in year-to-year performance that the averages don’t tell us much. In more than half of the presidential election cycle’s second years since the Dow’s creation, the U.S. benchmark index actually rose. Furthermore, as the accompanying chart shows, the Dow has risen in each of the past four second years — up 13.1% on average.</p><p><blockquote>然而，该结果在统计学上并不显著。每年的表现差异如此之大，以至于平均值并不能告诉我们太多。自道琼斯指数创立以来，在总统选举周期的第二年中，美国基准指数实际上上涨了一半以上。此外，如附图所示，道琼斯指数在过去四年中每年都在上涨，平均上涨13.1%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fd92bdd871c0bf68559547fe96caf17\" tg-width=\"1400\" tg-height=\"942\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> At a minimum, therefore, we need to dig deeper into the data before basing any investment decisions on supposed second-year presidential-term weakness.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们至少需要在根据第二年总统任期的疲软做出任何投资决策之前更深入地挖掘数据。</blockquote></p><p> <b>History of the presidential election cycle</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总统选举周期的历史</b></blockquote></p><p> The presidential election cycle is based on the unobjectionable notion that presidents and their political parties want to get re-elected. They therefore will swallow any necessary economic medicine early in their terms in order for the economy to be roaring by the time the next presidential election comes around.</p><p><blockquote>总统选举周期是基于一个无可争议的观念，即总统及其政党希望连任。因此，他们将在任期早期吞下任何必要的经济药物，以便在下一次总统选举到来时经济蓬勃发展。</blockquote></p><p> As many have noted before, the historical data are only loosely consistent with this theory. The table below reports the year-by-year averages for the Dow since its creation in 1896 and since 1940. This latter year was chosen on the theory that presidential power grew enormously in the 1930s, thereby increasing a leader’s ability to ignite the economy.</p><p><blockquote>正如许多人之前指出的，历史数据与这一理论只是大致一致。下表报告了道琼斯指数自1896年创立以来和1940年以来的逐年平均值。选择后一年的理论是，总统权力在20世纪30年代大幅增长，从而提高了领导人点燃经济的能力。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/431b2d2204c7d245f63f4b630476ae1b\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"627\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Though second years are the worst of the cycle, the difference between its average return and that of the other three years is not significant at the 95% confidence level that statisticians often use when determining if a pattern is genuine. In fact, the only year of the four that jumps over this hurdle of statistical significance is the third year.</p><p><blockquote>尽管第二年是周期中最糟糕的，但在统计学家在确定模式是否真实时经常使用的95%置信水平上，其平均回报与其他三年之间的差异并不显著。事实上，这四年中唯一跨越这一统计意义障碍的年份是第三年。</blockquote></p><p> These results are based on fiscal years ending on Sep. 30. In focusing on fiscal years, I am following the lead of most presidential election cycle researchers. Had I chosen to focus on calendar years rather than fiscal years, the difference between second years and the other three years of the cycle would have been even less pronounced.</p><p><blockquote>这些结果基于截至9月30日的财年。在关注财政年度时，我追随了大多数总统选举周期研究人员的脚步。如果我选择关注日历年而不是财政年度，第二年和周期中其他三年之间的差异就不会那么明显了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Midterm election and stock prices</b></p><p><blockquote><b>中期选举和股价</b></blockquote></p><p> This would otherwise be the end of the story, but for another seasonal pattern that researchers have recently documented. It turns out that the six months prior to the midterm election is a particularly weak period for the stock market, while the six months after is particularly strong.</p><p><blockquote>如果不是研究人员最近记录的另一种季节性模式，故事就结束了。事实证明，中期选举前的六个月是股市特别疲软的时期，而中期选举后的六个月则特别强劲。</blockquote></p><p> This pattern was discovered by Kam Fong Chan, a professor of finance at the University of Western Australia, and Terry Marsh, an emeritus finance professor at the University of California, Berkeley, and CEO of Quantal International. Their study on the subject was published this summer in the Quarterly Journal of Economics.</p><p><blockquote>这种模式是由西澳大利亚大学金融学教授Kam Fong Chan和加州大学伯克利分校名誉金融学教授、Quantal International首席执行官Terry Marsh发现的。他们关于这个主题的研究发表在今年夏天的《经济学季刊》上。</blockquote></p><p> The researchers attribute the stock market’s pre-midterm weakness to uncertainty about the outcome of those elections. Similarly, post-midterm strength can be traced to the resolution of that uncertainty. Their explanation makes theoretical sense, because the stock market reacts poorly to uncertainty.</p><p><blockquote>研究人员将股市在中期选举前的疲软归因于这些选举结果的不确定性。同样，中期后的实力可以追溯到这种不确定性的解决。他们的解释在理论上是有道理的，因为股市对不确定性的反应很差。</blockquote></p><p> Their theory has empirical support in the seasonal patterns of the Economic Policy Uncertainty index (EPU), which measures politically sourced economic uncertainty. Historically, the EPU has tended to rise significantly in the six months before mid-term elections and then fallen just as much in the six months thereafter.</p><p><blockquote>他们的理论在经济政策不确定性指数（EPU）的季节性模式中得到了实证支持，该指数衡量政治来源的经济不确定性。从历史上看，EPU往往在中期选举前的六个月大幅上升，然后在此后的六个月下降同样多。</blockquote></p><p> To the extent this pre- and post-midterm pattern persists, you wouldn’t look for stock market strength until next spring — halfway through the second year of the presidential election year cycle. In the meantime, the stock market could still exhibit weakness. But if it does, it won’t be because of where we are in the cycle.</p><p><blockquote>如果这种中期前后的模式持续存在，你要到明年春天——总统选举年周期第二年的中期——才能看到股市走强。与此同时，股市仍可能表现疲软。但如果是这样，也不会是因为我们在周期中所处的位置。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why stocks could lose popularity as the market’s ‘presidential election cycle’ enters its second year<blockquote>为什么随着市场“总统选举周期”进入第二年，股市可能会失去人气</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy stocks could lose popularity as the market’s ‘presidential election cycle’ enters its second year<blockquote>为什么随着市场“总统选举周期”进入第二年，股市可能会失去人气</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-28 11:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>Stock returns typically weaken in the second year of a U.S. president’s four-year term.</b>  Should investors be worried that the second year of the “presidential election cycle” is about to begin? Followers of the cycle answer “yes,” since second years of the cycle are the worst, on average, of a U.S. president’s four-year term.</p><p><blockquote><b>在美国总统四年任期的第二年，股票回报率通常会减弱。</b>投资者是否应该担心“总统选举周期”的第二年即将开始？周期的追随者回答“是”，因为周期的第二年平均是美国总统四年任期中最糟糕的。</blockquote></p><p> Since the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.21% was created in 1896, the Dow’s average price-only return in non-second years has been more than nine percentage points higher than in second years.</p><p><blockquote>自道琼斯工业平均指数道琼斯（+0.21%）于1896年创立以来，道琼斯指数在非第二年的平均纯价格回报率比第二年高出9个百分点以上。</blockquote></p><p> This result is not statistically significant, however. There is such wide variability in year-to-year performance that the averages don’t tell us much. In more than half of the presidential election cycle’s second years since the Dow’s creation, the U.S. benchmark index actually rose. Furthermore, as the accompanying chart shows, the Dow has risen in each of the past four second years — up 13.1% on average.</p><p><blockquote>然而，该结果在统计学上并不显著。每年的表现差异如此之大，以至于平均值并不能告诉我们太多。自道琼斯指数创立以来，在总统选举周期的第二年中，美国基准指数实际上上涨了一半以上。此外，如附图所示，道琼斯指数在过去四年中每年都在上涨，平均上涨13.1%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fd92bdd871c0bf68559547fe96caf17\" tg-width=\"1400\" tg-height=\"942\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> At a minimum, therefore, we need to dig deeper into the data before basing any investment decisions on supposed second-year presidential-term weakness.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们至少需要在根据第二年总统任期的疲软做出任何投资决策之前更深入地挖掘数据。</blockquote></p><p> <b>History of the presidential election cycle</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总统选举周期的历史</b></blockquote></p><p> The presidential election cycle is based on the unobjectionable notion that presidents and their political parties want to get re-elected. They therefore will swallow any necessary economic medicine early in their terms in order for the economy to be roaring by the time the next presidential election comes around.</p><p><blockquote>总统选举周期是基于一个无可争议的观念，即总统及其政党希望连任。因此，他们将在任期早期吞下任何必要的经济药物，以便在下一次总统选举到来时经济蓬勃发展。</blockquote></p><p> As many have noted before, the historical data are only loosely consistent with this theory. The table below reports the year-by-year averages for the Dow since its creation in 1896 and since 1940. This latter year was chosen on the theory that presidential power grew enormously in the 1930s, thereby increasing a leader’s ability to ignite the economy.</p><p><blockquote>正如许多人之前指出的，历史数据与这一理论只是大致一致。下表报告了道琼斯指数自1896年创立以来和1940年以来的逐年平均值。选择后一年的理论是，总统权力在20世纪30年代大幅增长，从而提高了领导人点燃经济的能力。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/431b2d2204c7d245f63f4b630476ae1b\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"627\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Though second years are the worst of the cycle, the difference between its average return and that of the other three years is not significant at the 95% confidence level that statisticians often use when determining if a pattern is genuine. In fact, the only year of the four that jumps over this hurdle of statistical significance is the third year.</p><p><blockquote>尽管第二年是周期中最糟糕的，但在统计学家在确定模式是否真实时经常使用的95%置信水平上，其平均回报与其他三年之间的差异并不显著。事实上，这四年中唯一跨越这一统计意义障碍的年份是第三年。</blockquote></p><p> These results are based on fiscal years ending on Sep. 30. In focusing on fiscal years, I am following the lead of most presidential election cycle researchers. Had I chosen to focus on calendar years rather than fiscal years, the difference between second years and the other three years of the cycle would have been even less pronounced.</p><p><blockquote>这些结果基于截至9月30日的财年。在关注财政年度时，我追随了大多数总统选举周期研究人员的脚步。如果我选择关注日历年而不是财政年度，第二年和周期中其他三年之间的差异就不会那么明显了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Midterm election and stock prices</b></p><p><blockquote><b>中期选举和股价</b></blockquote></p><p> This would otherwise be the end of the story, but for another seasonal pattern that researchers have recently documented. It turns out that the six months prior to the midterm election is a particularly weak period for the stock market, while the six months after is particularly strong.</p><p><blockquote>如果不是研究人员最近记录的另一种季节性模式，故事就结束了。事实证明，中期选举前的六个月是股市特别疲软的时期，而中期选举后的六个月则特别强劲。</blockquote></p><p> This pattern was discovered by Kam Fong Chan, a professor of finance at the University of Western Australia, and Terry Marsh, an emeritus finance professor at the University of California, Berkeley, and CEO of Quantal International. Their study on the subject was published this summer in the Quarterly Journal of Economics.</p><p><blockquote>这种模式是由西澳大利亚大学金融学教授Kam Fong Chan和加州大学伯克利分校名誉金融学教授、Quantal International首席执行官Terry Marsh发现的。他们关于这个主题的研究发表在今年夏天的《经济学季刊》上。</blockquote></p><p> The researchers attribute the stock market’s pre-midterm weakness to uncertainty about the outcome of those elections. Similarly, post-midterm strength can be traced to the resolution of that uncertainty. Their explanation makes theoretical sense, because the stock market reacts poorly to uncertainty.</p><p><blockquote>研究人员将股市在中期选举前的疲软归因于这些选举结果的不确定性。同样，中期后的实力可以追溯到这种不确定性的解决。他们的解释在理论上是有道理的，因为股市对不确定性的反应很差。</blockquote></p><p> Their theory has empirical support in the seasonal patterns of the Economic Policy Uncertainty index (EPU), which measures politically sourced economic uncertainty. Historically, the EPU has tended to rise significantly in the six months before mid-term elections and then fallen just as much in the six months thereafter.</p><p><blockquote>他们的理论在经济政策不确定性指数（EPU）的季节性模式中得到了实证支持，该指数衡量政治来源的经济不确定性。从历史上看，EPU往往在中期选举前的六个月大幅上升，然后在此后的六个月下降同样多。</blockquote></p><p> To the extent this pre- and post-midterm pattern persists, you wouldn’t look for stock market strength until next spring — halfway through the second year of the presidential election year cycle. In the meantime, the stock market could still exhibit weakness. But if it does, it won’t be because of where we are in the cycle.</p><p><blockquote>如果这种中期前后的模式持续存在，你要到明年春天——总统选举年周期第二年的中期——才能看到股市走强。与此同时，股市仍可能表现疲软。但如果是这样，也不会是因为我们在周期中所处的位置。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-stocks-could-lose-popularity-as-the-markets-presidential-election-cycle-enters-its-second-year-11632776543?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-stocks-could-lose-popularity-as-the-markets-presidential-election-cycle-enters-its-second-year-11632776543?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129085736","content_text":"Stock returns typically weaken in the second year of a U.S. president’s four-year term.\n\nShould investors be worried that the second year of the “presidential election cycle” is about to begin? Followers of the cycle answer “yes,” since second years of the cycle are the worst, on average, of a U.S. president’s four-year term.\nSince the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.21% was created in 1896, the Dow’s average price-only return in non-second years has been more than nine percentage points higher than in second years.\nThis result is not statistically significant, however. There is such wide variability in year-to-year performance that the averages don’t tell us much. In more than half of the presidential election cycle’s second years since the Dow’s creation, the U.S. benchmark index actually rose. Furthermore, as the accompanying chart shows, the Dow has risen in each of the past four second years — up 13.1% on average.\n\nAt a minimum, therefore, we need to dig deeper into the data before basing any investment decisions on supposed second-year presidential-term weakness.\nHistory of the presidential election cycle\nThe presidential election cycle is based on the unobjectionable notion that presidents and their political parties want to get re-elected. They therefore will swallow any necessary economic medicine early in their terms in order for the economy to be roaring by the time the next presidential election comes around.\nAs many have noted before, the historical data are only loosely consistent with this theory. The table below reports the year-by-year averages for the Dow since its creation in 1896 and since 1940. This latter year was chosen on the theory that presidential power grew enormously in the 1930s, thereby increasing a leader’s ability to ignite the economy.\n\nThough second years are the worst of the cycle, the difference between its average return and that of the other three years is not significant at the 95% confidence level that statisticians often use when determining if a pattern is genuine. In fact, the only year of the four that jumps over this hurdle of statistical significance is the third year.\nThese results are based on fiscal years ending on Sep. 30. In focusing on fiscal years, I am following the lead of most presidential election cycle researchers. Had I chosen to focus on calendar years rather than fiscal years, the difference between second years and the other three years of the cycle would have been even less pronounced.\nMidterm election and stock prices\nThis would otherwise be the end of the story, but for another seasonal pattern that researchers have recently documented. It turns out that the six months prior to the midterm election is a particularly weak period for the stock market, while the six months after is particularly strong.\nThis pattern was discovered by Kam Fong Chan, a professor of finance at the University of Western Australia, and Terry Marsh, an emeritus finance professor at the University of California, Berkeley, and CEO of Quantal International. Their study on the subject was published this summer in the Quarterly Journal of Economics.\nThe researchers attribute the stock market’s pre-midterm weakness to uncertainty about the outcome of those elections. Similarly, post-midterm strength can be traced to the resolution of that uncertainty. Their explanation makes theoretical sense, because the stock market reacts poorly to uncertainty.\nTheir theory has empirical support in the seasonal patterns of the Economic Policy Uncertainty index (EPU), which measures politically sourced economic uncertainty. Historically, the EPU has tended to rise significantly in the six months before mid-term elections and then fallen just as much in the six months thereafter.\nTo the extent this pre- and post-midterm pattern persists, you wouldn’t look for stock market strength until next spring — halfway through the second year of the presidential election year cycle. In the meantime, the stock market could still exhibit weakness. But if it does, it won’t be because of where we are in the cycle.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":359,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":603275210,"gmtCreate":1638419943092,"gmtModify":1638419943708,"author":{"id":"3582617881962608","authorId":"3582617881962608","name":"Ahsiang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/310f96e7696af85ae33ece774a483d15","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582617881962608","authorIdStr":"3582617881962608"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/603275210","repostId":"1171217212","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1171217212","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638416856,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1171217212?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-02 11:47","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Weibo plans to price HK listing at HK$272.80 per share<blockquote>微博计划香港上市定价为每股272.80港元</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171217212","media":"IFR","summary":"Weibo plans to price HK listing at HK$272.80 per share, according to IFR.","content":"<p>Weibo plans to price HK listing at HK$272.80 per share,&nbsp;according&nbsp;to&nbsp;IFR.</p><p><blockquote>根据IFR的数据，微博计划在香港上市的定价为每股272.80港元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWeibo plans to price HK listing at HK$272.80 per share<blockquote>微博计划香港上市定价为每股272.80港元</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">IFR</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-02 11:47</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Weibo plans to price HK listing at HK$272.80 per share,&nbsp;according&nbsp;to&nbsp;IFR.</p><p><blockquote>根据IFR的数据，微博计划在香港上市的定价为每股272.80港元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.ifre.com/story/3164593/weibo-plans-to-price-hk-listing-at-hk27280-per-share-rnhybgnjwr\">IFR</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"WB":"微博","09898":"微博-SW"},"source_url":"https://www.ifre.com/story/3164593/weibo-plans-to-price-hk-listing-at-hk27280-per-share-rnhybgnjwr","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171217212","content_text":"Weibo plans to price HK listing at HK$272.80 per 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