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2021-12-16

Ok

10 Biggest Price Target Changes For Thursday<blockquote>周四10个最大价格目标变化</blockquote>

2021-06-21

Dip and buy

Apple: Winter Is Coming<blockquote>苹果：冬天来了</blockquote>

2021-06-20

Woohoo

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2021-06-19

Interesting

ASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential<blockquote>ASML：市场可能低估了其潜力</blockquote>

2021-06-18

Good buy

Adobe Q2 Earnings Beat Expectations<blockquote>Adobe第二季度盈利超出预期</blockquote>

2021-06-16

Oh no

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2021-06-15

Great!

Toplines Before US Market Open on Tuesday<blockquote>周二美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote>

2021-06-01

Buy?

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2021-06-01

Higher!

Dow pops 270 points as June begins, S&P 500 nears record high<blockquote>6月初道琼斯指数上涨270点，标普500接近历史新高</blockquote>

2021-05-16

Yes!

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Under Armour shares fell 0.7% to $22.22 in pre-market trading.RBC Capital lowered the price target on Airbnb, Inc. from $195 to $175. Airbnb shares rose 0.3% to $168.62 in pre-market trading.Morgan Stanley lowered DocuSign, Inc. price target from $350 to $165. DocuSign shares dropped 2.4% to $147.51 in pre-market trading.Barclays cut the price target on Aptiv PLC from $212 to $200. Aptiv shares rose 2.7% to $168.91 in pre-market","content":"<p><div> Stifel cut the price target on Under Armour, Inc..(NYSE:UAA) from $30 to $24. Under Armour shares fell 0.7% to $22.22 in pre-market trading. 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Under Armour shares fell 0.7% to $22.22 in pre-market trading. RBC Capital lowered the price target on Airbnb, Inc.(NASDAQ...</p><p><blockquote><div>Stifel将Under Armour，Inc.（纽约证券交易所代码：UAA）的目标价从30美元下调至24美元。Under Armour股价在盘前交易中下跌0.7%，至22.22美元。加拿大皇家银行资本下调了Airbnb，Inc.（纳斯达克...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/price-target/21/12/24641061/10-biggest-price-target-changes-for-thursday\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/price-target/21/12/24641061/10-biggest-price-target-changes-for-thursday\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/price-target/21/12/24641061/10-biggest-price-target-changes-for-thursday\">Benzinga</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ABNB":"爱彼迎","T":"At&T","DOCU":"Docusign"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/price-target/21/12/24641061/10-biggest-price-target-changes-for-thursday","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191683541","content_text":"Stifel cut the price target on Under Armour, Inc..(NYSE:UAA) from $30 to $24. Under Armour shares fell 0.7% to $22.22 in pre-market trading.\nRBC Capital lowered the price target on Airbnb, Inc.(NASDAQ:ABNB) from $195 to $175. Airbnb shares rose 0.3% to $168.62 in pre-market trading.\nMorgan Stanley cut AT&T Inc.(NYSE:T) price target from $32 to $28. AT&T shares rose 1.7% to $22.55 in pre-market trading.\nMorgan Stanley lowered DocuSign, Inc.(NASDAQ:DOCU) price target from $350 to $165. DocuSign shares dropped 2.4% to $147.51 in pre-market trading.\nBarclays cut the price target on Aptiv PLC(NYSE:APTV) from $212 to $200. Aptiv shares rose 2.7% to $168.91 in pre-market trading.\nRaymond James raised The Progressive Corporation(NYSE:PGR) price target from $105 to $110. Progressive shares rose 4.8% to close at $101.81 on Wednesday.\nWells Fargo boosted the price target for Magna International Inc.(NYSE:MGA) from $84 to $93. Magna International shares rose 1.7% to $79.04 in pre-market trading.\nB of A Securities reduced the price target for Wayfair Inc.(NYSE:W) from $265 to $175. Wayfair shares dropped 2.4% to $202.28 in pre-market trading.\nHC Wainwright & Co. cut IGM Biosciences, Inc.(NASDAQ:IGMS) price target from $114 to $76. IGM Biosciences shares fell 0.1% to close at $28.35 on Wednesday.\nNeedham cut Medtronic plc(NYSE:MDT) price target from $145 to $131. Medtronic shares rose 0.1% to $105.01 in pre-market trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"T":0.9,"ABNB":0.9,"DOCU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1851,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":167192287,"gmtCreate":1624250849349,"gmtModify":1634008862714,"author":{"id":"3582499726363900","authorId":"3582499726363900","name":"owlee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582499726363900","idStr":"3582499726363900"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Dip and buy","listText":"Dip and buy","text":"Dip and buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167192287","repostId":"1175906479","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175906479","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624242000,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175906479?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-21 10:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Winter Is Coming<blockquote>苹果：冬天来了</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175906479","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share .In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period.</li>  <li>I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).</li>  <li>From the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4dc5052119e6bbc5b693cf7385d8738\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果股价在过去五年中上涨了449%，跑赢了标普500同期102%的涨幅。</li><li>我给予苹果中性评级，公允价值为111.42美元/股（当前价格为131.7美元/股）。</li><li>从技术分析角度来看，股价正遵循上升三角形形态，正向137美元/股的目标价迈进。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Michael M.Santiago/Getty Images新闻公司概述</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司(AAPL)股价在过去五年中上涨了449%，跑赢了标普500同期102%的涨幅。由基本面支持的出色回报。我特别想从后者开始分析。</blockquote></p><p> Over the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的二十年里，苹果成功的主要驱动力一直是iPhone。2016年，iPhone占总销量的63%。这对苹果来说是个问题，他们知道这一点。这个问题的存在主要有两个因素：第一，智能手机业务已经成熟（增长率较低）；其次，它过去是（现在也是）一个竞争激烈的行业。然而，苹果拥有其他竞争对手所没有的东西，即庞大的iPhone用户群（例如，这允许销售更多服务）。多年来，苹果一直能够有效地实现其收入来源多元化，目前的结构如下所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4602be0c6fa92191baf04a7496c4e024\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Let's now take a look at each of these segments:</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们来看看这些部分：</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. iPhone</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.iPhone</b></blockquote></p><p> From 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>自2016年至2020年，iPhone分部的复合年增长率为0.20%，并由佔总销售额的63.4%（2016年）变为51%（“TTM”）。我在下面展示了iPhone细分市场在过去5年（2016-TTM）的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/916b48499e3e3ed2c0c167af3ba62bdb\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告的数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，在具有5G功能的新iPhone12系列以及来自中国的有趣数据的推动下，iPhone细分市场的TTM增长率为18.5%。我相信向5G的过渡将是该细分市场增长的主要驱动力。我想以这种方式报告第二季度收益看涨期权的一段文字记录。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.</i>  <b>2. iPad</b></p><p><blockquote><i>在企业市场，许多行业的客户都在加速采用iPhone 12和5G，将其作为未来业务的关键平台。例如，达美航空正在将iPhone 12和5G连接交给空乘人员，以便他们能够在航空旅行反弹时提供尽可能最好的乘客服务。英国的Openreach已开始为数万名现场工程师配备iPhone 12加快向全国家庭部署宽带服务。科罗拉多州的一家大型医疗保健提供商UCHealth能够将每位患者的疫苗接种时间从3分钟减少到30秒，这主要是通过从PC工作站转移到iPhone。这使得他们的工作人员能够快速扫描和登记新患者，并大大提高他们的日常疫苗接种能力。</i><b>2.iPad</b></blockquote></p><p> As it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>与过去一样，iPad细分市场占总销售额的百分比或多或少是一个恒定的数字，2016年为9.6%，而TTM为9.1%。从2016年到2020年，iPad细分市场的CAGR增长率为3.56%（整体趋势有所改善）。我在下面展示了iPad细分市场在过去5年（2016-TTM）的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6faf9ddb8d29d662fcaa46bbda862f48\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).</p><p><blockquote>TTM数据向我们展示了一幅有趣的画面，iPad细分市场的TTM增长率为24.9%，这是由三个因素推动的：M1芯片、新的5G功能以及我们都在家的事实。我看到了很多实现新一代iPads的方法。不过，我也不得不承认，还有一个大玩家在同一个海里游泳，那就是新的2-1笔记本电脑。对于那些希望两全其美的人来说，新的2-1笔记本电脑是一个非常有趣的解决方案。在最后一种观点中，iPad细分市场占总销售额的比例可能较低，约为7.8%（目前为9.1%）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Mac</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.三月</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> From 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>从2016年到2020年，Mac细分市场的CAGR增长率为5.81%，与iPad细分市场一样，Mac细分市场在2016年占总销售额的比例为10.6%，而TTM为10.4%。我在下面介绍了过去5年（2016-TTM）Mac细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2494d89c1d5cd70a4cf0c5fb31fb20a\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.</p><p><blockquote>采用M1芯片的新一代Mac似乎受到了客户的赞赏，事实上，今年迄今为止，Mac细分市场的TTM增长率为18.4%。我亲自尝试了这款新一代MAC电脑，我不得不承认，苹果非常知道如何取悦顾客。个人电脑是一个竞争激烈的市场，即使我喜欢并使用苹果产品，我也更喜欢与联想合作。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&amp;A)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.可穿戴设备、家居和配件（WH&amp;A）</b></blockquote></p><p> The Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&amp;A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&amp;A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>可穿戴设备、家居和配件部门包括AirPods、苹果电视、苹果手表、Beats产品、HomePod等的销售。这就是有趣的地方。从2016年到2020年，WH&amp;A分部的复合年增长率为28.78%，从2016年仅占总销售额的5.2%变为占TTM的10.8%。我在下面列出了过去5年（2016-TTM）WH&amp;A细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e16432a1ae66aa9dda7a4f969a9cfcdf\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The WH&amp;A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).</p><p><blockquote>在苹果手表系列6和苹果手表SE的强劲表现的推动下，WH&amp;A细分市场的TTM增长率为14.7%。在苹果进入医疗保健市场的推动下，苹果观察在未来几年可能会有一个非常光明的未来。事实上，它可以用来监测人的健康状况。想象一下，你即将心脏病发作，你的苹果手表可能会看涨期权一辆救护车并挽救你的生命，不错不是吗？最后，我们不要忘记苹果电视4K和最新配件AirTag的推出（我没有看到后者的市场，但我可能是错的）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Services</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5.服务</b></blockquote></p><p> Services include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>服务包括公司广告、AppleCare、数字内容和其他服务的销售。于二零一六年至二零二零年，服务分部的复合年增长率为21.9%，并由二零一六年佔总销售额的11.3%变为佔TTM的18.6%。我在下面列出了过去5年（2016-TTM）服务部门的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af34eb1ba8fffd690a75318f8cf805f7\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> To date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，服务部门的TTM增长率为12.3%。这一增长是由应用商店、云服务、音乐、广告和支付服务推动的。苹果TV+、苹果街机、苹果新闻+和苹果卡等新服务也开始为整体服务增长做出贡献，并继续增加用户、内容和功能。我相信，未来，服务板块将是公司的主导板块。下面我展示了我从第四季度收益看涨期权中推断出来的有趣部分。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>First, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.</i>  <b>Company Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><i>首先，我们的安装基础持续增长，并且在每个主要产品类别中都处于历史最高水平。其次，我们数字内容商店上的交易账户和付费账户数量在9月份季度均创下历史新高，每个地理区域的付费账户均以两位数增长。第三，付费订阅量环比增长超过3500万，目前我们平台上的服务付费订阅量超过5.85亿，比一年前增加了1.35亿。凭借这一势头，我们非常有信心在2020年底前达到并超过6亿付费订阅的增加目标。</i><b>公司分析</b></blockquote></p><p> I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&amp;D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&amp;D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&amp;D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).</p><p><blockquote>我给予苹果中性评级，公允价值为111.42美元/股（当前价格为131.7美元/股）。公允价值是算法调整后的价值，考虑了不同的因素，基本面和技术面（如DCF公允价值、动量等）。），因此它考虑了市场先生的情绪。同时，我通过DCF模型获得的公允价值等于105.68美元/股。现在，在显示结果之前，用作基数的数字是过去12个月的数字。此外，我还重述了财务数据，因为我将可摊销期限为3年的研发费用资本化。我不认为就苹果而言，研发是一项运营费用，因此，我将其视为资本支出。考虑到研发，以下指标已被重述（所有数字均以百万美元为单位）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7a2222a8e8b9088e619b0b971193a1f\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is very important to capitalize on R&amp;D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.</p><p><blockquote>利用研发费用非常重要，如果我们不这样做，我们只是将公司最大的资产保留在资产负债表之外。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Discounted Cash Flow Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>折现现金流量模型</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们转向贴现现金流估值部分。下面，你可以看到我所做的相对假设的结果。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2da633d931f51b493d897d9c87ecee5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Now, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:</p><p><blockquote>现在，这次我还提出了三种可能的情况以及我的估计：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Base Case Scenario</i>: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.</li>  <li><i>Best Case Scenario</i>: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.</li>  <li><i>Worst Case Scenario</i>: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.</li> </ul> Finally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>基本情况</i>：上面的DCF模型代表了我的基本情况。在基本情况下，我假设增长的驱动力是：iPhone细分市场（由5G过渡驱动）、服务细分市场（由更广泛的客户群驱动）和新的M1 MAC细分市场。在这种情况下，我假设Y1增长率为12%，Y2-Y5复合年增长率为7.1%，Y10的目标营业利润率为27%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为105.68美元/股。</li><li><i>最佳情况</i>：生意火爆！在最好的情况下，我再次将我在基本情况中描述的主要驱动因素视为主要驱动因素，但是，此外，我还看到中国的市场渗透率更高。在过去的5年里，我们可以观察到中国的销售额呈下降趋势，然而，今年的销售额增长了39.7%（iPhone细分市场大幅增长）。在这种情况下，我假设Y1增长率为14%，Y2-Y5复合年增长率为9.1%，Y10的目标营业利润率为30%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为130.32美元/股。</li><li><i>最坏的情况</i>：嗯，这是一个我想看涨期权为“成熟公司场景”的场景。在这种情况下，我认为苹果的增长略高于经济增长率，因此，我假设Y1增长率为10%，Y2-Y5复合年增长率为3.1%，Y10的目标营业利润率为25%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为81.03美元/股。</li></ul>最后，对于每种情况，我都看到苹果凭借其苹果手表进入医疗保健市场。正如你可以想象的那样，我在每种情况下分配了不同的市场渗透可能性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sensitivity Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>敏感性分析</b></blockquote></p><p> Moreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我还想提供基本情况的敏感性分析。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95f00eba768526d07d68fd846ecf998d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Technical Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术分析</b></blockquote></p><p> From the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).</p><p><blockquote>从技术分析的角度来看，我还没有看到任何问题。股价处于看涨模式，目前处于上升三角形形态。截至目前，股价正在遵循其模式，正朝着137美元/股或D点的目标价迈进，在那里它可能会反弹并回到E点。如果这种情况发生，E点通常是股价再次反弹的点，从该点开始，股票走高（这只是一个技术分析假设，照原样）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecf3e5f45dcb5e30b092c02bbf94d6f9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:TradingView.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&amp;P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.</p><p><blockquote>苹果是一家成熟的公司，能够在未来几年发现问题并解决它。通过查看在基本情况下计算的公允价值，我们可以认为该股票目前被高估，但没有高估那么多。对于什么关注风险，最好情况和最坏情况之间的差异可以用作风险的代理。考虑到这一点，我认为没有什么理由恐慌，但是，我确实看到市场即将出现调整。许多技术和基本面指标都向我表明，市场目前过于沉重（即使标准普尔500指数可能会走高，也许会在4400点区域）。总而言之，我不认为要平仓我的整个苹果头寸，但是，一旦达到我的价格目标，我会平仓其中的60%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Winter Is Coming<blockquote>苹果：冬天来了</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Winter Is Coming<blockquote>苹果：冬天来了</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-21 10:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period.</li>  <li>I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).</li>  <li>From the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4dc5052119e6bbc5b693cf7385d8738\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果股价在过去五年中上涨了449%，跑赢了标普500同期102%的涨幅。</li><li>我给予苹果中性评级，公允价值为111.42美元/股（当前价格为131.7美元/股）。</li><li>从技术分析角度来看，股价正遵循上升三角形形态，正向137美元/股的目标价迈进。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Michael M.Santiago/Getty Images新闻公司概述</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司(AAPL)股价在过去五年中上涨了449%，跑赢了标普500同期102%的涨幅。由基本面支持的出色回报。我特别想从后者开始分析。</blockquote></p><p> Over the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的二十年里，苹果成功的主要驱动力一直是iPhone。2016年，iPhone占总销量的63%。这对苹果来说是个问题，他们知道这一点。这个问题的存在主要有两个因素：第一，智能手机业务已经成熟（增长率较低）；其次，它过去是（现在也是）一个竞争激烈的行业。然而，苹果拥有其他竞争对手所没有的东西，即庞大的iPhone用户群（例如，这允许销售更多服务）。多年来，苹果一直能够有效地实现其收入来源多元化，目前的结构如下所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4602be0c6fa92191baf04a7496c4e024\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Let's now take a look at each of these segments:</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们来看看这些部分：</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. iPhone</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.iPhone</b></blockquote></p><p> From 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>自2016年至2020年，iPhone分部的复合年增长率为0.20%，并由佔总销售额的63.4%（2016年）变为51%（“TTM”）。我在下面展示了iPhone细分市场在过去5年（2016-TTM）的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/916b48499e3e3ed2c0c167af3ba62bdb\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告的数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，在具有5G功能的新iPhone12系列以及来自中国的有趣数据的推动下，iPhone细分市场的TTM增长率为18.5%。我相信向5G的过渡将是该细分市场增长的主要驱动力。我想以这种方式报告第二季度收益看涨期权的一段文字记录。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.</i>  <b>2. iPad</b></p><p><blockquote><i>在企业市场，许多行业的客户都在加速采用iPhone 12和5G，将其作为未来业务的关键平台。例如，达美航空正在将iPhone 12和5G连接交给空乘人员，以便他们能够在航空旅行反弹时提供尽可能最好的乘客服务。英国的Openreach已开始为数万名现场工程师配备iPhone 12加快向全国家庭部署宽带服务。科罗拉多州的一家大型医疗保健提供商UCHealth能够将每位患者的疫苗接种时间从3分钟减少到30秒，这主要是通过从PC工作站转移到iPhone。这使得他们的工作人员能够快速扫描和登记新患者，并大大提高他们的日常疫苗接种能力。</i><b>2.iPad</b></blockquote></p><p> As it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>与过去一样，iPad细分市场占总销售额的百分比或多或少是一个恒定的数字，2016年为9.6%，而TTM为9.1%。从2016年到2020年，iPad细分市场的CAGR增长率为3.56%（整体趋势有所改善）。我在下面展示了iPad细分市场在过去5年（2016-TTM）的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6faf9ddb8d29d662fcaa46bbda862f48\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).</p><p><blockquote>TTM数据向我们展示了一幅有趣的画面，iPad细分市场的TTM增长率为24.9%，这是由三个因素推动的：M1芯片、新的5G功能以及我们都在家的事实。我看到了很多实现新一代iPads的方法。不过，我也不得不承认，还有一个大玩家在同一个海里游泳，那就是新的2-1笔记本电脑。对于那些希望两全其美的人来说，新的2-1笔记本电脑是一个非常有趣的解决方案。在最后一种观点中，iPad细分市场占总销售额的比例可能较低，约为7.8%（目前为9.1%）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Mac</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.三月</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> From 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>从2016年到2020年，Mac细分市场的CAGR增长率为5.81%，与iPad细分市场一样，Mac细分市场在2016年占总销售额的比例为10.6%，而TTM为10.4%。我在下面介绍了过去5年（2016-TTM）Mac细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2494d89c1d5cd70a4cf0c5fb31fb20a\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.</p><p><blockquote>采用M1芯片的新一代Mac似乎受到了客户的赞赏，事实上，今年迄今为止，Mac细分市场的TTM增长率为18.4%。我亲自尝试了这款新一代MAC电脑，我不得不承认，苹果非常知道如何取悦顾客。个人电脑是一个竞争激烈的市场，即使我喜欢并使用苹果产品，我也更喜欢与联想合作。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&amp;A)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.可穿戴设备、家居和配件（WH&amp;A）</b></blockquote></p><p> The Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&amp;A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&amp;A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>可穿戴设备、家居和配件部门包括AirPods、苹果电视、苹果手表、Beats产品、HomePod等的销售。这就是有趣的地方。从2016年到2020年，WH&amp;A分部的复合年增长率为28.78%，从2016年仅占总销售额的5.2%变为占TTM的10.8%。我在下面列出了过去5年（2016-TTM）WH&amp;A细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e16432a1ae66aa9dda7a4f969a9cfcdf\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The WH&amp;A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).</p><p><blockquote>在苹果手表系列6和苹果手表SE的强劲表现的推动下，WH&amp;A细分市场的TTM增长率为14.7%。在苹果进入医疗保健市场的推动下，苹果观察在未来几年可能会有一个非常光明的未来。事实上，它可以用来监测人的健康状况。想象一下，你即将心脏病发作，你的苹果手表可能会看涨期权一辆救护车并挽救你的生命，不错不是吗？最后，我们不要忘记苹果电视4K和最新配件AirTag的推出（我没有看到后者的市场，但我可能是错的）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Services</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5.服务</b></blockquote></p><p> Services include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>服务包括公司广告、AppleCare、数字内容和其他服务的销售。于二零一六年至二零二零年，服务分部的复合年增长率为21.9%，并由二零一六年佔总销售额的11.3%变为佔TTM的18.6%。我在下面列出了过去5年（2016-TTM）服务部门的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af34eb1ba8fffd690a75318f8cf805f7\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> To date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，服务部门的TTM增长率为12.3%。这一增长是由应用商店、云服务、音乐、广告和支付服务推动的。苹果TV+、苹果街机、苹果新闻+和苹果卡等新服务也开始为整体服务增长做出贡献，并继续增加用户、内容和功能。我相信，未来，服务板块将是公司的主导板块。下面我展示了我从第四季度收益看涨期权中推断出来的有趣部分。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>First, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.</i>  <b>Company Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><i>首先，我们的安装基础持续增长，并且在每个主要产品类别中都处于历史最高水平。其次，我们数字内容商店上的交易账户和付费账户数量在9月份季度均创下历史新高，每个地理区域的付费账户均以两位数增长。第三，付费订阅量环比增长超过3500万，目前我们平台上的服务付费订阅量超过5.85亿，比一年前增加了1.35亿。凭借这一势头，我们非常有信心在2020年底前达到并超过6亿付费订阅的增加目标。</i><b>公司分析</b></blockquote></p><p> I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&amp;D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&amp;D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&amp;D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).</p><p><blockquote>我给予苹果中性评级，公允价值为111.42美元/股（当前价格为131.7美元/股）。公允价值是算法调整后的价值，考虑了不同的因素，基本面和技术面（如DCF公允价值、动量等）。），因此它考虑了市场先生的情绪。同时，我通过DCF模型获得的公允价值等于105.68美元/股。现在，在显示结果之前，用作基数的数字是过去12个月的数字。此外，我还重述了财务数据，因为我将可摊销期限为3年的研发费用资本化。我不认为就苹果而言，研发是一项运营费用，因此，我将其视为资本支出。考虑到研发，以下指标已被重述（所有数字均以百万美元为单位）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7a2222a8e8b9088e619b0b971193a1f\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is very important to capitalize on R&amp;D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.</p><p><blockquote>利用研发费用非常重要，如果我们不这样做，我们只是将公司最大的资产保留在资产负债表之外。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Discounted Cash Flow Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>折现现金流量模型</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们转向贴现现金流估值部分。下面，你可以看到我所做的相对假设的结果。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2da633d931f51b493d897d9c87ecee5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Now, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:</p><p><blockquote>现在，这次我还提出了三种可能的情况以及我的估计：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Base Case Scenario</i>: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.</li>  <li><i>Best Case Scenario</i>: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.</li>  <li><i>Worst Case Scenario</i>: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.</li> </ul> Finally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>基本情况</i>：上面的DCF模型代表了我的基本情况。在基本情况下，我假设增长的驱动力是：iPhone细分市场（由5G过渡驱动）、服务细分市场（由更广泛的客户群驱动）和新的M1 MAC细分市场。在这种情况下，我假设Y1增长率为12%，Y2-Y5复合年增长率为7.1%，Y10的目标营业利润率为27%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为105.68美元/股。</li><li><i>最佳情况</i>：生意火爆！在最好的情况下，我再次将我在基本情况中描述的主要驱动因素视为主要驱动因素，但是，此外，我还看到中国的市场渗透率更高。在过去的5年里，我们可以观察到中国的销售额呈下降趋势，然而，今年的销售额增长了39.7%（iPhone细分市场大幅增长）。在这种情况下，我假设Y1增长率为14%，Y2-Y5复合年增长率为9.1%，Y10的目标营业利润率为30%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为130.32美元/股。</li><li><i>最坏的情况</i>：嗯，这是一个我想看涨期权为“成熟公司场景”的场景。在这种情况下，我认为苹果的增长略高于经济增长率，因此，我假设Y1增长率为10%，Y2-Y5复合年增长率为3.1%，Y10的目标营业利润率为25%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为81.03美元/股。</li></ul>最后，对于每种情况，我都看到苹果凭借其苹果手表进入医疗保健市场。正如你可以想象的那样，我在每种情况下分配了不同的市场渗透可能性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sensitivity Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>敏感性分析</b></blockquote></p><p> Moreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我还想提供基本情况的敏感性分析。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95f00eba768526d07d68fd846ecf998d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Technical Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术分析</b></blockquote></p><p> From the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).</p><p><blockquote>从技术分析的角度来看，我还没有看到任何问题。股价处于看涨模式，目前处于上升三角形形态。截至目前，股价正在遵循其模式，正朝着137美元/股或D点的目标价迈进，在那里它可能会反弹并回到E点。如果这种情况发生，E点通常是股价再次反弹的点，从该点开始，股票走高（这只是一个技术分析假设，照原样）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecf3e5f45dcb5e30b092c02bbf94d6f9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:TradingView.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&amp;P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.</p><p><blockquote>苹果是一家成熟的公司，能够在未来几年发现问题并解决它。通过查看在基本情况下计算的公允价值，我们可以认为该股票目前被高估，但没有高估那么多。对于什么关注风险，最好情况和最坏情况之间的差异可以用作风险的代理。考虑到这一点，我认为没有什么理由恐慌，但是，我确实看到市场即将出现调整。许多技术和基本面指标都向我表明，市场目前过于沉重（即使标准普尔500指数可能会走高，也许会在4400点区域）。总而言之，我不认为要平仓我的整个苹果头寸，但是，一旦达到我的价格目标，我会平仓其中的60%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175906479","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).\nFrom the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.\n\nMichael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview\nApple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.\nOver the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nLet's now take a look at each of these segments:\n1. iPhone\nFrom 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report\nSo far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.\n\nIn the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.\n\n2. iPad\nAs it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).\n3. Mac\nFrom 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.\n4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&A)\nThe Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe WH&A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).\n5. Services\nServices include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nTo date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.\n\nFirst, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.\n\nCompany Analysis\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nIt is very important to capitalize on R&D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.\nDiscounted Cash Flow Model\nNow, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nNow, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:\n\nBase Case Scenario: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.\nBest Case Scenario: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.\nWorst Case Scenario: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.\n\nFinally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.\nSensitivity Analysis\nMoreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nTechnical Analysis\nFrom the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).\nSource:TradingView.com\nFinal Thoughts\nApple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1626,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":165513893,"gmtCreate":1624151010012,"gmtModify":1634010296705,"author":{"id":"3582499726363900","authorId":"3582499726363900","name":"owlee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582499726363900","idStr":"3582499726363900"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Woohoo","listText":"Woohoo","text":"Woohoo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/165513893","repostId":"1111305468","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1620,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162886153,"gmtCreate":1624056897172,"gmtModify":1634023557100,"author":{"id":"3582499726363900","authorId":"3582499726363900","name":"owlee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582499726363900","idStr":"3582499726363900"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting&nbsp;","listText":"Interesting&nbsp;","text":"Interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162886153","repostId":"1168762020","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1168762020","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623988654,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1168762020?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 11:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"ASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential<blockquote>ASML：市场可能低估了其潜力</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168762020","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.\nDUV lithogra","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.</li>  <li>DUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 12% through 2027.</li>  <li>ASML holds a monopoly within EUV and faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms absolutely vital for the semiconductor manufacturing process.</li>  <li>A true innovator, ASML commands an outstanding position and growth outlook but the stock market has long since recognized the potential.</li>  <li>Existing shareholders do well for themselves in just enjoying the ride, but there is little margin of safety left for prospective shareholders who might dip their toes into the water through dollar-cost averaging to benefit from the strong tailwinds powering ASML.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44b5f81c309842f14fe1adffe3d6c9ca\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"432\"><span>MACRO PHOTO/iStock via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>预计到2028年，半导体行业的复合年增长率将达到8.6%。</li><li>预计到2025年，DUV光刻将以8.4%的CAGR增长，而EUV光刻预计到2027年将以12%的CAGR增长。</li><li>ASML在EUV领域占据垄断地位，在DUV领域面临非常有限的竞争，这两个平台对半导体制造工艺绝对至关重要。</li><li>作为真正的创新者，ASML拥有出色的地位和增长前景，但股市早已认识到其潜力。</li><li>现有股东在享受这一旅程方面做得很好，但对于潜在股东来说，几乎没有安全边际，他们可能会通过平均成本法涉足水，以从推动ASML的强劲顺风中受益。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>宏观照片/iStock来自Getty Images投资论文</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ASML Holding (ASML) commands a market position like no one else with not a competitor in sight for its most advanced technological platform, EUV lithography. Similarly, it faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms vital for semiconductor manufacturing. The household names within the semiconductor industry belong to the manufacturers, but the machinery providers, such as ASML, command very strong moats through extensive technological knowledge and strong process knowledge leaving all potential competitors years behind if they should ever try to compete.</p><p><blockquote>ASML Holding(ASML)在其最先进的技术平台EUV光刻方面拥有无与伦比的市场地位，看不到竞争对手。同样，它在DUV内部面临的竞争非常有限，这两个平台对半导体制造都至关重要。半导体行业内家喻户晓的品牌属于制造商，但ASML等机械供应商通过广泛的技术知识和强大的工艺知识拥有非常强大的护城河，如果所有潜在竞争对手试图竞争，他们将落后数年。</blockquote></p><p> It's hard to think of a better competitive situation, especially when operating in a sector forecasted to grow well above general GDP for many years to come. However, the market has long since recognized ASML's outstanding potential and potential journey, but still, it could be underestimating the potential.</p><p><blockquote>很难想象有比这更好的竞争形势了，尤其是在一个预计未来许多年增长将远高于总体GDP的行业运营时。然而，市场早已认识到ASML的突出潜力和潜力之旅，但它仍然可能低估了潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> I recently wrote an article concerning how youcan’t own too much semiconductor exposure. Having decomposed the value chain for semiconductor manufacturing, I received a number of questions concerning ASML in the comment sections and decided to conduct this follow-up. I’ve selected ASML due to its unique marketplace position and potential.</p><p><blockquote>我最近写了一篇关于如何不要拥有太多半导体敞口的文章。在分解了半导体制造的价值链后，我在评论区收到了许多关于ASML的问题，并决定进行跟进。我选择ASML是因为其独特的市场地位和潜力。</blockquote></p><p> Personally I have exposure to the manufacturing level of the semiconductor value chain through shares in both Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), but venturing further back into the value chain, and investors can be allowed to invest in a broader manner into the industry, as the suppliers of machinery and software obtain a broader exposure to most of the manufacturers making it immensely interesting as you can adopt the mantra of “I don’t really mind who wins, as long as they are racing”. As such, potential exposure upstream in the value chain carries great interest.</p><p><blockquote>就我个人而言，我通过持有德州仪器(TXN)和博通公司(AVGO)的股票接触到了半导体价值链的制造水平，但进一步深入价值链，投资者可以被允许以更广泛的方式投资该行业，因为机械和软件供应商可以更广泛地接触大多数制造商，这使得它非常有趣，因为你可以采用“我真的不介意谁赢，只要他们在比赛”的口号。因此，价值链上游的潜在风险引起了极大的兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Marketplace and Value Drivers For Years To Come</b></p><p><blockquote><b>未来几年的市场和价值驱动因素</b></blockquote></p><p> For ASML followers it’s no surprise at this point, but ASML is dominant within the product offering that will drive its revenue for the coming decade, EUV (Extreme ultraviolet lithography) technology. My personal take is that it is hard to find a company in a similarly advantageous competitive position anywhere in any industry. ASML provides equipment for lithography, the art of printing the chip features via light sources, in several light spectrums with its most advanced being EUV which is the next-gen to DUV (deep ultraviolet lithography). For DUV there are competitors albeit ASML has a massive market share above 85%. The difference between DUV and EUV is that EUV operates at a light wavelength almost 15 times smaller than DUV (13.5nm compared to 193nm).</p><p><blockquote>对于ASML的追随者来说，这一点并不奇怪，但ASML在将推动其未来十年收入的产品中占据主导地位，即EUV（极紫外光刻）技术。我个人的看法是，在任何行业的任何地方都很难找到一家处于类似优势竞争地位的公司。ASML提供光刻设备，这是一种通过光源打印芯片特征的艺术，有多种光谱，其中最先进的是EUV，这是DUV（深紫外光刻）的下一代。对于DUV来说，尽管ASML拥有超过85%的巨大市场份额，但仍有竞争对手。DUV和EUV之间的区别在于，EUV的工作波长几乎比DUV小15倍（13.5 nm与193nm相比）。</blockquote></p><p> Actually, the semiconductor manufacturers for the leading edge chips such as 5nm and soon to be 3nm are deeply dependent on the EUV machinery. Without it, it simply wouldn’t be possible. That sounds like a pretty good bargain for those who can manufacture these machines, but there is only one company that is able to do it, and that is ASML. For every generation of new EUV machinery, its yield becomes better with higher throughput and reduced downtime issues, meaning that ASML is effectively lightyears ahead of anyone who would try to pick up the gauntlet and challenge their dominant position.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，5nm和即将到来的3nm等前沿芯片的半导体制造商非常依赖EUV机器。没有它，这根本不可能。对于那些能够制造这些机器的人来说，这听起来很划算，但只有一家公司能够做到这一点，那就是ASML。对于每一代新的EUV机器，其产量都会变得更好，吞吐量更高，停机问题也会减少，这意味着ASML实际上领先于任何试图接受挑战并挑战其主导地位的人。</blockquote></p><p> This is an industry where everything is about process knowledge. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is able to produce 5nm chips because it was able to produce 7nm, and it will be able to produce 3nm because it can produce 5nm and has done that a million times over which is also why it was so detrimental to Intel Corp (INTC) that it had to acknowledge its persistent issues with the 7nm technology.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个一切都与流程知识有关的行业。台积电(TSM)能够生产5纳米芯片，因为它能够生产7纳米芯片，它将能够生产3纳米芯片，因为它可以生产5纳米芯片，并且已经这样做了一百万次，这也是为什么它对英特尔公司如此有害。(INTC)不得不承认其在7纳米技术方面持续存在的问题。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Quite simply, there is no 3nm if you can’t do the 5nm, as also discussed in my previous article. Same goes for ASML as a competitor would be years and years behind ASML if they entered the EUV space as they would struggle with the same issues that have plagued ASML in its early days of EUV more than a decade ago. I’ve included a number of illustrations from their most recent investor day which took place in November 2018, with the next one to take place in September 2021.</p><p><blockquote>很简单，如果你做不到5纳米，就没有3纳米，我在上一篇文章中也讨论过。ASML也是如此，因为如果竞争对手进入EUV领域，他们将落后ASML很多年，因为他们将面临十多年前困扰ASML的EUV早期的相同问题。我附上了他们最近一次投资者日的一些插图，这次投资者日发生在2018年11月，下一次投资者日将于2021年9月举行。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edaa6b5a77f99726bbae61b032b9c208\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 6.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。6.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The picture above clearly illustrates the process knowledge having been picked up by ASML throughout its EUV lifetime. This has also translated into better EUV machinery for each new generation as also evident by its productivity improvements. Again, I can’t imagine a more favourable competitive situation for a company, given how much time and capital it would require for a competitor to adopt the EUV technology.</p><p><blockquote>上图清楚地说明了ASML在其EUV生命周期中获得的工艺知识。这也转化为每一代更好的EUV机器，其生产率的提高也证明了这一点。同样，考虑到竞争对手采用EUV技术需要多少时间和资金，我无法想象对一家公司来说还有比这更有利的竞争形势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85913766aea721e218e976e4f73349e5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 16.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。16.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Semiconductor manufacturing is a cutthroat business with heavy R&amp;D spend (it took ASML €6 billion in R&amp;D spend to invent EUV) driving chip improvements according to Moore’s law, meaning that ASML is already working on the next-gen technology, referred to as High NA-EUV. High NA-EUV is still some time away, with the timeline below being slightly outdated, but its technology will significantly improve the EUV platform and power the industry beyond this decade. It takes time to develop the technology, improve yield and reduce downtime, but there is still plenty of opportunities for EUV in terms of marketplace expansion and margin improvement.</p><p><blockquote>半导体制造是一项残酷的业务，根据摩尔定律，大量的研发支出（ASML花费了60亿欧元的研发支出来发明EUV）推动芯片改进，这意味着ASML已经在研究下一代技术，称为高NA-EUV。高NA-EUV还有一段时间，下面的时间表略显过时，但其技术将显着改善EUV平台，并在本十年后为行业提供动力。开发技术、提高产量和减少停机时间需要时间，但EUV在市场扩张和利润率提高方面仍有大量机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7709f0f76b1619a31b32fc3330134005\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 21.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。21.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ASML itself has laid out the expected path in terms of optimised margins through both add-ons facing the buyer side and upstream cost reductions facing their suppliers creating a sweet spot for the company effectively striving to achieve the same profitability profile as for its more mature DUV platform.</p><p><blockquote>ASML本身已经通过面向买方的附加产品和面向供应商的上游成本降低，在优化利润率方面制定了预期路径，为公司创造了一个最佳点，有效地努力实现与其更成熟的DUV平台相同的盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/809661531ad423f613fb44c26e0b3352\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 25.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。25.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If that wasn’t good enough, then add the fact that the semiconductor industry in general is expected to outpace general GDP for at least until 2028 with a CAGR of 8.6%. Recentcommunicationsby Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel and Samsung Electronics Company (OTC:SSNLF) shows the strength and growth potential for the sector with their combined CAPEX expectations going beyond $200 billion for the coming decade, with a significant chunk of that within the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>如果这还不够好，那么再加上这样一个事实，即半导体行业总体预计至少在2028年之前将超过总体GDP，复合年增长率为8.6%。台积电、英特尔和三星电子公司（场外交易代码：SSNLF）最近的通讯显示了该行业的实力和增长潜力，他们预计未来十年的总资本支出将超过2000亿美元，其中很大一部分将在未来几年内实现。</blockquote></p><p> As can be seen in the illustration above, ASML expects increased customer value through upgrades, with their roadmap for DUV serving as an example in terms of how the revenue base could expand over the coming years for EUV as is the case for DUV via what the company has labelled installed base management.</p><p><blockquote>从上图中可以看出，ASML希望通过升级来增加客户价值，他们的DUV路线图可以作为一个例子，说明EUV的收入基础如何在未来几年扩大，就像DUV的情况一样。该公司已标记为安装基础管理。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8ef7940a4b888c50159e5b9db4c0634\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, DUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 10.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，DUV产品和商机，第14页。10.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> There is of course always the possibility of a serious contender entering the marketplace in order to try and challenge ASML, but companies have tried to enter the space when the technology was in its infancy having given up, meaning the prime threat would be the emergence of a new lithography technology arriving and doing to EUV what EUV did to DUV. Possible sure, likely, not so much. Just to hammer down the point, I’ve inserted a paragraph from ASML’s own description of how lithography plays its role.</p><p><blockquote>当然，总有可能有一个强有力的竞争者进入市场，试图挑战ASML，但公司在该技术处于起步阶段时就试图进入该领域，但已经放弃了，这意味着主要威胁将是一种新的光刻技术的出现，对EUV的影响就像EUV对DUV所做的那样。可能当然，很可能，没那么多。为了强调这一点，我插入了ASML自己对光刻如何发挥作用的描述中的一段话。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   “  <i>Lithography is a driving force in the creation of more powerful, faster and cheaper chips. The manufacturing of chips becomes increasingly complex as semiconductor feature sizes shrink, while the imperative to mass produce at the right cost remains. Our holistic lithography product portfolio helps to optimize production and enable affordable shrink by integrating lithography systems with computational modeling, as well as metrology and inspection solutions. A lithography system is essentially a projection system. Light is projected through a blueprint of the pattern that will be printed (known as a ‘mask’ or ‘reticle’). With the pattern encoded in the light, the system’s optics shrink and focus the pattern onto a photosensitive silicon wafer. After the pattern is printed, the system moves the wafer slightly and makes another copy on the wafer. This process is repeated until the wafer is covered in patterns, completing one layer of the wafer’s chips. To make an entire microchip, this process is repeated layer after layer, stacking the patterns to create an integrated circuit (IC). The simplest chips have around 10 layers, while the most complex can have over 150 layers. The size of the features to be printed varies depending on the layer, which means that different types of lithography systems are used for different layers – our latest-generation EUV systems for the most critical layers with the smallest features to ArF, KrF, and i-line DUV systems for less critical layers with larger features.</i>”  <i>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</i>  <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa32572971943844c4e71ddfc77559d6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"547\"><span>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</span></p><p><blockquote>“<i>光刻技术是制造更强大、更快、更便宜芯片的驱动力。随着半导体特征尺寸的缩小，芯片的制造变得越来越复杂，而以合适的成本大规模生产的必要性仍然存在。我们的整体光刻产品组合通过将光刻系统与计算建模以及计量和检测解决方案集成，有助于优化生产并实现可承受的收缩。光刻系统本质上是投影系统。光通过将被打印的图案的蓝图(称为“掩模”或“掩模”)投射。随着图案被编码在光中，系统的光学器件收缩并将图案聚焦到光敏硅晶片上。在打印图案之后，系统稍微移动晶片并在晶片上进行另一次复制。重复该过程，直到晶片被图案覆盖，完成晶片的一层芯片。为了制造整个微芯片，该过程一层又一层地重复，堆叠图案以创建集成电路(IC)。最简单的芯片大约有10层，而最复杂的芯片可以有超过150层。要打印的特征尺寸因层而异，这意味着不同类型的光刻系统用于不同的层——我们最新一代的EUV系统用于具有最小特征的最关键层，而ArF、KrF和i-line DUV系统用于具有较大特征的不太关键层。</i>”<i>ASML 2020年年度报告，光刻的作用，第14页。12.</i><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2020年年度报告，光刻的作用，第14页。12.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I believe most investors are familiar with confirmation bias, and if they aren’t, they should grab a book and educate themselves. Having read through this section, it can easily sound as if I as the author is suffering from confirmation bias given how strongly I’ve advocated for ASML’s position and competitive power. However, I’ve striven towards identifying situations that could severely impact ASML and being honest I can’t find it. There are of course the risks associated with geopolitical tension, which also showed itself in the stock price back in 2016, the risk of supply chain disruption as is currently transpiring across the industry and competition for talent. These are touched upon by the company itself in their annual report 2020 p. 21 and no industry comes without potential risks.</p><p><blockquote>我相信大多数投资者都熟悉确认偏差，如果他们不熟悉，他们应该拿本书自学。通读这一部分后，考虑到我对ASML的地位和竞争力的强烈支持，我作为作者很容易受到确认偏见的困扰。然而，我一直在努力找出可能严重影响ASML的情况，老实说，我找不到。当然，也存在与地缘政治紧张局势相关的风险，这在2016年的股价中也有所体现，目前整个行业正在发生的供应链中断的风险以及人才竞争。该公司自己在其2020年年度报告第21页中提到了这些问题，没有一个行业没有潜在风险。</blockquote></p><p> So, to sum it all up:</p><p><blockquote>所以，总结一下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>ASML has pioneered EUV lithography, with no competitors in sight</li>  <li>EUV will enable the continuation of Moore’s Law and will drive long term value for ASML and its customers well into this decade</li>  <li>The semiconductor sector forecasted to grow at CAGR of 8.6% through 2028, outpacing general GDP with ASML being a key supplier to the manufacturers (foundries)</li>  <li>Strong industry CAPEX driving demand for ASML offerings</li>  <li>The path forward for expanding EUV business in terms of installed base management, margins improvement and manufacturer dependency on EUV machinery for leading edge chips</li>  <li>ASML is a crucial player for leading edge chip manufacturing</li> </ul> Sounds pretty good to me.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>ASML开创了EUV光刻，看不到竞争对手</li><li>EUV将使摩尔定律得以延续，并将在本十年为ASML及其客户带来长期价值</li><li>预计到2028年，半导体行业的复合年增长率将达到8.6%，超过总体GDP，ASML是制造商（代工厂）的主要供应商</li><li>强劲的行业资本支出推动了对ASML产品的需求</li><li>在装机基础管理、利润率提高以及制造商对领先芯片的EUV机械的依赖方面扩大EUV业务的前进道路</li><li>ASML是领先芯片制造的关键参与者</li></ul>对我来说听起来不错。</blockquote></p><p> The Financial Performance and Development</p><p><blockquote>财务表现及发展</blockquote></p><p> ASML is doing well for itself as evident by the illustration below.</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，ASML自身表现良好。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Strong revenue growth</li>  <li>Strong margin expansion</li>  <li>Strong improvement in free cash flow</li>  <li>Impressive operational improvements strengthening its moat through increased R&amp;D spend and IP portfolio</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7900753b1857ac9ad6fc705b9baad563\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"414\"><span>Annual Report 2020, p 7.</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>收入增长强劲</li><li>利润率强劲扩张</li><li>自由现金流强劲改善</li><li>令人印象深刻的运营改进通过增加研发支出和知识产权组合来加强其护城河</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2020年年度报告，第7页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This was followed by a strong Q1-2021 performance with mouth-watering financials on both top and bottom line. However, for their Q2-2021 performance they are guiding for slightly lower revenue expansion at €4.1 billion with a gross margin of 49%, which is still above the long term average but closer to it. There is however no denying that the company is thriving in the current environment.</p><p><blockquote>随后是2021年第一季度的强劲表现，营收和利润都令人垂涎。然而，对于2021年第二季度的业绩，他们预计收入扩张略低，为41亿欧元，毛利率为49%，仍高于长期平均水平，但更接近长期平均水平。然而，不可否认的是，该公司在当前环境下蓬勃发展。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60ea4dedde41a918bd9e1fd307a9531f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 14.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2021年第一季度，第14页。14.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> An interesting detail is the development within the installed base management as illustrated earlier in the article. The company is delivering on its promise with a strong development within this segment growing 29% YoY from 2019 to 2020, well beyond the total growth of 18%.</p><p><blockquote>一个有趣的细节是安装库管理中的开发，如本文前面所述。该公司正在兑现其承诺，该领域的强劲发展从2019年到2020年同比增长29%，远远超过18%的总增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6966dcaf747d226d5de580187d4d3ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 8.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2021年第一季度，第14页。8.</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The more interesting question however is whether the market estimates are underestimating the potential for ASML. An immensely hard question, but if we give it a look, I personally at least see the possibility of that being the case.</p><p><blockquote>然而，更有趣的问题是，市场估计是否低估了ASML的潜力。这是一个非常困难的问题，但如果我们看一看，我个人至少看到了这种可能性。</blockquote></p><p> Are Analyst Consensus Estimates Under- or Over-Estimating ASML’s Potential?</p><p><blockquote>分析师的一致估计是低估了还是高估了ASML的潜力？</blockquote></p><p> ASML is well-covered by analysts offering estimates all the way through 2028, but with coverage waning once we go beyond 2025 which is the last year covered by more than one analyst. The current estimates show a revenue CAGR development of 11.1% from 2020 to 2028, but if we remove 2021, which shows stellar growth, the CAGR is 6.5%.</p><p><blockquote>分析师对ASML的报道很好，他们提供了到2028年的预测，但一旦我们超过2025年，报道范围就会减弱，这是最后一年有超过一名分析师报道。目前的估计显示，从2020年到2028年，收入CAGR发展为11.1%，但如果我们去掉2021年的强劲增长，CAGR为6.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9adf4cebbce28dc7433186b5bd0827e8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Author's Own Creation, Source Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>作者自己的创作，来源寻求阿尔法。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Remember the sector as a whole is forecasted to exhibit growth at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028. These are all estimates which carry great uncertainty with no one able to reliably predict the future. However, it is worth noticing that revenue estimates for ASML are below the sector as a whole if the massive jump from 2020 to 2021 is left out of the equation. Average revenue growth from 2026 to 2028 is currently estimated to be 3.5%.</p><p><blockquote>请记住，预计到2028年，整个行业的复合年增长率将达到8.6%。这些都是带有很大不确定性的估计，没有人能够可靠地预测未来。然而，值得注意的是，如果不考虑2020年至2021年的大幅增长，ASML的收入预期将低于整个行业。目前预计2026年至2028年的平均收入增长率为3.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Considering some of the arguments in favour of why ASML’s outlook could be even more positive:</p><p><blockquote>考虑一些支持ASML前景可能更加积极的论点：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>General semiconductor industry CAGR 2020-2028 forecasted at 8.6%.</li>  <li>DUV CAGR 2020-2025forecastedat 8.4%, it is still ASML’s largest product category.</li>  <li>EUV CAGR 2020-2027forecastedat 12%.</li>  <li>ASML is a linchpin player to solve chip shortage through technology advancement and its machines define the performance of every electrical gadget we utilise in our daily lives.</li>  <li>ASML shows progress in its plan to widen the ecosystem for its machinery through \"Installed Base Management\" increasing the total addressable market by upwards of double digits percentage as 2018 sales were 20% installed base management and 2025 estimate is 50%.</li>  <li>ASML dominates the DUV immersion segment, the part of DUV with high margins as its two solecompetitorsin DUV, Nikon and Canon lack the means and capabilities.</li>  <li>As the market transitions to EUV, the demand for DUV willfollowas the chip stacking process benefits from both systems through its manufacturing.</li> </ul> This is without mentioning the potential price increases that could trickle down towards its customers as they could be fighting over ASML’s capacity due to its strong market position of 85% in DUV and monopoly within EUV while also bringing High NA-EUV to market by mid of this decade. Customers today pay roughly $130-150 million for EUV machines, while DUV machines come in at around $100 million. The largest hindrance to ASML overdelivering is its current capacity constraint in terms of ability to deliver EUV systems which is capped somewhere between 40 and 50 systems a year, with the company of course striving to expand that capacity constraint as demand builds up over the years. On the other hand, this could also be a driver for price increases as ASML strives to expand capacity.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>通用半导体行业CAGR 2020-2028年预测为8.6%。</li><li>DUV CAGR 2020-2025预测为8.4%，仍然是ASML最大的产品类别。</li><li>EUV CAGR 2020-2027年预测为12%。</li><li>ASML是通过技术进步解决芯片短缺的关键参与者，其机器定义了我们日常生活中使用的每一个电子设备的性能。</li><li>ASML在通过“安装基础管理”扩大其机械生态系统的计划方面取得了进展，使总目标市场增加了两位数以上的百分比，因为2018年的销售额占安装基础管理的20%，2025年的估计为50%。</li><li>ASML在DUV沉浸式细分市场占据主导地位，这是DUV利润率较高的部分，因为其在DUV的两个唯一竞争对手尼康和佳能缺乏手段和能力。</li><li>随着市场向EUV过渡，对DUV的需求将随之而来，因为芯片堆叠工艺通过其制造从这两种系统中受益。</li></ul>这还没有提到潜在的价格上涨可能会渗透到其客户身上，因为他们可能会争夺ASML的产能，因为ASML在DUV中占据85%的强大市场地位以及在EUV中的垄断地位，同时也在中期将高NA-EUV推向市场。这十年。如今，客户为EUV机器支付大约1.3-1.5亿美元，而DUV机器的价格约为1亿美元。ASML超额交付的最大障碍是其目前交付EUV系统的能力限制，每年交付EUV系统的能力限制在40到50个系统之间，随着多年来需求的增加，该公司当然会努力扩大这一能力限制。另一方面，随着ASML努力扩大产能，这也可能成为价格上涨的驱动力。</blockquote></p><p> I will not try to construct an even bolder revenue guidance as it’s a cheap shot and frankly, no one has the capacity to accurately forecast if the current expectations will stand or whether they are too positive or negative. I just want to highlight that with everything going on and ASML’s market position in mind, I don’t consider it unreasonable that the company will do even better than currently anticipated.</p><p><blockquote>我不会试图构建一个更大胆的收入指引，因为这是一个廉价的机会，坦率地说，没有人有能力准确预测当前的预期是否成立，或者它们是否过于积极或消极。我只想强调，考虑到正在发生的一切以及ASML的市场地位，我认为该公司的表现比目前预期的更好并不是不合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> The stock price is an inch away from its 52-week high and has been on a tear since the beginning of 2020, really taking off since October 2020 from which it has doubled since.</p><p><blockquote>该股价距离52周高点仅一英寸，自2020年初以来一直在上涨，自2020年10月以来真正起飞，此后已翻了一番。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/472c0e2f540c1d4ee2a7bbaec09379c0\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"453\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Market cap has exploded with all other parameters left in its wake having seen a significant expansion in price-earnings ratio despite a strong improvement in EPS and revenue. The stock market has long since recognised the story and potential of ASML with the Wall Street analyst target currently at $722 per share. Fair to say, there is no margin of safety if the analysts are correct in the predictions. Interestingly, out of the 30 analysts offering a price target, the percentage who are very bullish hasn’t been higher since 2016 with 56% stating a very bullish opinion. There is a mental exercise in staying cautious in terms of believing in such statements, not least because the stock has only known one direction for the last couple of years – upwards.</p><p><blockquote>尽管每股收益和收入强劲改善，但所有其他参数都出现了爆炸式增长，市盈率也大幅扩大。股市早已认识到ASML的故事和潜力，华尔街分析师目前的目标是每股722美元。公平地说，如果分析师的预测是正确的，就没有安全边际。有趣的是，在提供价格目标的30名分析师中，非常看涨的比例自2016年以来从未如此之高，其中56%的分析师表示非常看涨。在相信此类言论时保持谨慎是一种心理锻炼，尤其是因为该股在过去几年中只知道一个方向——向上。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The significance of the expansion in typical ratios is evident when considered over a five-year horizon as shown below. Both P/E and P/S have expanded massively standing at 55 and 15.7 respectively. However, the company is in a very different place compared to three years ago.</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，当考虑到五年的时间范围时，典型比率扩张的重要性是显而易见的。市盈率和市盈率均大幅上涨，分别为55和15.7。然而，与三年前相比，该公司的处境截然不同。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c691d4662a793b5de150add67a3a4e11\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Revenue is growing significantly faster than previously with gross margin and free cash flow also having improved. Due to this positive development, ASML is also returning plenty of capital to its shareholders with a share buyback program of €10 billion for 2021, which unfortunately only translates to a reduction of 0.5% of the current float.</p><p><blockquote>收入增长速度明显快于以前，毛利率和自由现金流也有所改善。由于这一积极的发展，ASML还通过2021年100亿欧元的股票回购计划向股东返还了大量资本，不幸的是，这仅相当于当前流通量减少了0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7341584d3ba7b1db51e1eef3c4bdaccd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The strong belief in ASML going forward is also clearly illustrated by the estimates for the coming years, which throughout the most recent years has been steadily climbing due to the company’s strong portfolio and market dominance.</p><p><blockquote>对ASML未来几年的预测也清楚地表明了人们对ASML未来的坚定信心，由于该公司强大的投资组合和市场主导地位，近年来该预测一直在稳步攀升。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b262aeeb8d75114dbc3e45bf9464c830\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With all that said, I believe that current shareholders do well for themselves in holding on to their existing shares as this company has a great outlook. I’ve had my eyes on ASML for the last year, and I’m extremely sad to say I never got around to looking into it properly, but only looked it at from afar and concluded that the stock might be due for a good pullback at one point. Little did I know.</p><p><blockquote>综上所述，我相信目前的股东在持有现有股份方面做得很好，因为这家公司前景广阔。去年我一直在关注ASML，我非常难过地说，我从未抽出时间仔细研究过它，只是从远处看了看，并得出结论，该股可能会出现良好的回调在某一点上。我一点也不知道。</blockquote></p><p> As Peter Lynch famously said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves,” as would also be true for someone like me who didn’t act in time. I’m still massively fascinated by ASML’s outlook and potential journey, but at the current price, I remain hesitant about the prospects and the lack of margin of safety.</p><p><blockquote>正如彼得·林奇（Peter Lynch）的名言，“投资者为调整做准备或试图预测调整而损失的资金远远多于调整本身损失的资金”，对于像我这样没有及时采取行动的人来说也是如此。我仍然对ASML的前景和潜在旅程非常着迷，但以目前的价格，我仍然对前景和缺乏安全边际犹豫不决。</blockquote></p><p> There is a lot of potential for ASML to grow into its valuation, and if one is to add that current levels, I’d say dollar-cost averaging is a prudent strategy for the current price, while reserving the possibility to back up the truck for a full load if we see a pullback before end of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>ASML的估值有很大的增长潜力，如果要加上当前的水平，我会说美元成本平均法对于当前价格来说是一种谨慎的策略，同时保留备份的可能性如果我们在2021年底之前看到回调，卡车将满载。</blockquote></p><p> As can be seen below, it is not uncommon for ASML to experience a 10% setback once or twice a year.</p><p><blockquote>从下面可以看出，ASML每年经历一两次10%的挫折并不罕见。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad90b51964870f5475b596fe16f63317\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> ASML is dominant within its two main offerings, the DUV and EUV lithography. Its market is backed by incredibly strong tailwinds as all our gadgets, electrical cars, 5G, datacentres, cloud servers, etc. are heavily reliant on the technology platform offered by ASML. A true innovator with no real competition in sight, feeding machinery and tools to an industry expected to grow at CAGR 8.6% through 2028 with potentially even stronger growth for both its DUV and EUV platforms while also expecting margin expansion.</p><p><blockquote>ASML在其两个主要产品DUV和EUV光刻中占据主导地位。它的市场得到了令人难以置信的强劲推动力的支持，因为我们所有的小工具、电动汽车、5G、数据中心、云服务器等。严重依赖ASML提供的技术平台。一家真正的创新者，看不到真正的竞争，为预计到2028年复合年增长率为8.6%的行业提供机械和工具，其DUV和EUV平台的增长可能会更强劲，同时预计利润率将扩大。</blockquote></p><p> There is little evil to be said about ASML, but unfortunately, the stock market has long since recognised its amazing story and potential. With such a strong outlook in sight, existing shareholders do well for themselves in holding onto their shares and just enjoy the journey ahead, but for the prospective shareholders, there appears to be a little margin of safety with the market cap having expanded significantly recently and the stock trading just an inch shy of its 52 week high.</p><p><blockquote>ASML没什么不好说的，但不幸的是，股市早已认识到其惊人的故事和潜力。在如此强劲的前景下，现有股东在持有股票并享受未来的旅程方面做得很好，但对于潜在股东来说，随着市值的大幅扩大，似乎还有一点安全边际。最近，该股的交易价格距离52周高点仅一英寸。</blockquote></p><p> As Peter Lynch said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” The exact fallacy I’ve fallen victim to as I’ve looked at ASML from afar for quite a while. Despite the recent expansion in market cap and multiples, there could be made a case for current estimates underestimating ASML’s true potential, but any forecast extending 5-10 years into the future comes with extreme uncertainty and guesstimation. As I’ve shown, ASML’s share price is prone to setbacks once or twice a year allowing dollar-cost averaging to serve as a method to acquire exposure to the company slowly building a position along the way.</p><p><blockquote>正如彼得·林奇（Peter Lynch）所说，“投资者准备调整或试图预测调整所损失的资金远远超过调整本身所损失的资金。”当我从远处看ASML很长一段时间时，我已经成为了这个谬论的受害者。尽管最近市值和市盈率有所扩大，但目前的估计可能低估了ASML的真正潜力，但任何延长到未来5-10年的预测都带有极大的不确定性和猜测。正如我所展示的，ASML的股价每年容易出现一到两次挫折，这使得平均成本法可以作为一种方法来获得该公司的风险敞口，并在此过程中慢慢建立头寸。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>ASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential<blockquote>ASML：市场可能低估了其潜力</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential<blockquote>ASML：市场可能低估了其潜力</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 11:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.</li>  <li>DUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 12% through 2027.</li>  <li>ASML holds a monopoly within EUV and faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms absolutely vital for the semiconductor manufacturing process.</li>  <li>A true innovator, ASML commands an outstanding position and growth outlook but the stock market has long since recognized the potential.</li>  <li>Existing shareholders do well for themselves in just enjoying the ride, but there is little margin of safety left for prospective shareholders who might dip their toes into the water through dollar-cost averaging to benefit from the strong tailwinds powering ASML.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44b5f81c309842f14fe1adffe3d6c9ca\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"432\"><span>MACRO PHOTO/iStock via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>预计到2028年，半导体行业的复合年增长率将达到8.6%。</li><li>预计到2025年，DUV光刻将以8.4%的CAGR增长，而EUV光刻预计到2027年将以12%的CAGR增长。</li><li>ASML在EUV领域占据垄断地位，在DUV领域面临非常有限的竞争，这两个平台对半导体制造工艺绝对至关重要。</li><li>作为真正的创新者，ASML拥有出色的地位和增长前景，但股市早已认识到其潜力。</li><li>现有股东在享受这一旅程方面做得很好，但对于潜在股东来说，几乎没有安全边际，他们可能会通过平均成本法涉足水，以从推动ASML的强劲顺风中受益。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>宏观照片/iStock来自Getty Images投资论文</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ASML Holding (ASML) commands a market position like no one else with not a competitor in sight for its most advanced technological platform, EUV lithography. Similarly, it faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms vital for semiconductor manufacturing. The household names within the semiconductor industry belong to the manufacturers, but the machinery providers, such as ASML, command very strong moats through extensive technological knowledge and strong process knowledge leaving all potential competitors years behind if they should ever try to compete.</p><p><blockquote>ASML Holding(ASML)在其最先进的技术平台EUV光刻方面拥有无与伦比的市场地位，看不到竞争对手。同样，它在DUV内部面临的竞争非常有限，这两个平台对半导体制造都至关重要。半导体行业内家喻户晓的品牌属于制造商，但ASML等机械供应商通过广泛的技术知识和强大的工艺知识拥有非常强大的护城河，如果所有潜在竞争对手试图竞争，他们将落后数年。</blockquote></p><p> It's hard to think of a better competitive situation, especially when operating in a sector forecasted to grow well above general GDP for many years to come. However, the market has long since recognized ASML's outstanding potential and potential journey, but still, it could be underestimating the potential.</p><p><blockquote>很难想象有比这更好的竞争形势了，尤其是在一个预计未来许多年增长将远高于总体GDP的行业运营时。然而，市场早已认识到ASML的突出潜力和潜力之旅，但它仍然可能低估了潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> I recently wrote an article concerning how youcan’t own too much semiconductor exposure. Having decomposed the value chain for semiconductor manufacturing, I received a number of questions concerning ASML in the comment sections and decided to conduct this follow-up. I’ve selected ASML due to its unique marketplace position and potential.</p><p><blockquote>我最近写了一篇关于如何不要拥有太多半导体敞口的文章。在分解了半导体制造的价值链后，我在评论区收到了许多关于ASML的问题，并决定进行跟进。我选择ASML是因为其独特的市场地位和潜力。</blockquote></p><p> Personally I have exposure to the manufacturing level of the semiconductor value chain through shares in both Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), but venturing further back into the value chain, and investors can be allowed to invest in a broader manner into the industry, as the suppliers of machinery and software obtain a broader exposure to most of the manufacturers making it immensely interesting as you can adopt the mantra of “I don’t really mind who wins, as long as they are racing”. As such, potential exposure upstream in the value chain carries great interest.</p><p><blockquote>就我个人而言，我通过持有德州仪器(TXN)和博通公司(AVGO)的股票接触到了半导体价值链的制造水平，但进一步深入价值链，投资者可以被允许以更广泛的方式投资该行业，因为机械和软件供应商可以更广泛地接触大多数制造商，这使得它非常有趣，因为你可以采用“我真的不介意谁赢，只要他们在比赛”的口号。因此，价值链上游的潜在风险引起了极大的兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Marketplace and Value Drivers For Years To Come</b></p><p><blockquote><b>未来几年的市场和价值驱动因素</b></blockquote></p><p> For ASML followers it’s no surprise at this point, but ASML is dominant within the product offering that will drive its revenue for the coming decade, EUV (Extreme ultraviolet lithography) technology. My personal take is that it is hard to find a company in a similarly advantageous competitive position anywhere in any industry. ASML provides equipment for lithography, the art of printing the chip features via light sources, in several light spectrums with its most advanced being EUV which is the next-gen to DUV (deep ultraviolet lithography). For DUV there are competitors albeit ASML has a massive market share above 85%. The difference between DUV and EUV is that EUV operates at a light wavelength almost 15 times smaller than DUV (13.5nm compared to 193nm).</p><p><blockquote>对于ASML的追随者来说，这一点并不奇怪，但ASML在将推动其未来十年收入的产品中占据主导地位，即EUV（极紫外光刻）技术。我个人的看法是，在任何行业的任何地方都很难找到一家处于类似优势竞争地位的公司。ASML提供光刻设备，这是一种通过光源打印芯片特征的艺术，有多种光谱，其中最先进的是EUV，这是DUV（深紫外光刻）的下一代。对于DUV来说，尽管ASML拥有超过85%的巨大市场份额，但仍有竞争对手。DUV和EUV之间的区别在于，EUV的工作波长几乎比DUV小15倍（13.5 nm与193nm相比）。</blockquote></p><p> Actually, the semiconductor manufacturers for the leading edge chips such as 5nm and soon to be 3nm are deeply dependent on the EUV machinery. Without it, it simply wouldn’t be possible. That sounds like a pretty good bargain for those who can manufacture these machines, but there is only one company that is able to do it, and that is ASML. For every generation of new EUV machinery, its yield becomes better with higher throughput and reduced downtime issues, meaning that ASML is effectively lightyears ahead of anyone who would try to pick up the gauntlet and challenge their dominant position.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，5nm和即将到来的3nm等前沿芯片的半导体制造商非常依赖EUV机器。没有它，这根本不可能。对于那些能够制造这些机器的人来说，这听起来很划算，但只有一家公司能够做到这一点，那就是ASML。对于每一代新的EUV机器，其产量都会变得更好，吞吐量更高，停机问题也会减少，这意味着ASML实际上领先于任何试图接受挑战并挑战其主导地位的人。</blockquote></p><p> This is an industry where everything is about process knowledge. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is able to produce 5nm chips because it was able to produce 7nm, and it will be able to produce 3nm because it can produce 5nm and has done that a million times over which is also why it was so detrimental to Intel Corp (INTC) that it had to acknowledge its persistent issues with the 7nm technology.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个一切都与流程知识有关的行业。台积电(TSM)能够生产5纳米芯片，因为它能够生产7纳米芯片，它将能够生产3纳米芯片，因为它可以生产5纳米芯片，并且已经这样做了一百万次，这也是为什么它对英特尔公司如此有害。(INTC)不得不承认其在7纳米技术方面持续存在的问题。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Quite simply, there is no 3nm if you can’t do the 5nm, as also discussed in my previous article. Same goes for ASML as a competitor would be years and years behind ASML if they entered the EUV space as they would struggle with the same issues that have plagued ASML in its early days of EUV more than a decade ago. I’ve included a number of illustrations from their most recent investor day which took place in November 2018, with the next one to take place in September 2021.</p><p><blockquote>很简单，如果你做不到5纳米，就没有3纳米，我在上一篇文章中也讨论过。ASML也是如此，因为如果竞争对手进入EUV领域，他们将落后ASML很多年，因为他们将面临十多年前困扰ASML的EUV早期的相同问题。我附上了他们最近一次投资者日的一些插图，这次投资者日发生在2018年11月，下一次投资者日将于2021年9月举行。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edaa6b5a77f99726bbae61b032b9c208\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 6.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。6.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The picture above clearly illustrates the process knowledge having been picked up by ASML throughout its EUV lifetime. This has also translated into better EUV machinery for each new generation as also evident by its productivity improvements. Again, I can’t imagine a more favourable competitive situation for a company, given how much time and capital it would require for a competitor to adopt the EUV technology.</p><p><blockquote>上图清楚地说明了ASML在其EUV生命周期中获得的工艺知识。这也转化为每一代更好的EUV机器，其生产率的提高也证明了这一点。同样，考虑到竞争对手采用EUV技术需要多少时间和资金，我无法想象对一家公司来说还有比这更有利的竞争形势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85913766aea721e218e976e4f73349e5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 16.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。16.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Semiconductor manufacturing is a cutthroat business with heavy R&amp;D spend (it took ASML €6 billion in R&amp;D spend to invent EUV) driving chip improvements according to Moore’s law, meaning that ASML is already working on the next-gen technology, referred to as High NA-EUV. High NA-EUV is still some time away, with the timeline below being slightly outdated, but its technology will significantly improve the EUV platform and power the industry beyond this decade. It takes time to develop the technology, improve yield and reduce downtime, but there is still plenty of opportunities for EUV in terms of marketplace expansion and margin improvement.</p><p><blockquote>半导体制造是一项残酷的业务，根据摩尔定律，大量的研发支出（ASML花费了60亿欧元的研发支出来发明EUV）推动芯片改进，这意味着ASML已经在研究下一代技术，称为高NA-EUV。高NA-EUV还有一段时间，下面的时间表略显过时，但其技术将显着改善EUV平台，并在本十年后为行业提供动力。开发技术、提高产量和减少停机时间需要时间，但EUV在市场扩张和利润率提高方面仍有大量机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7709f0f76b1619a31b32fc3330134005\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 21.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。21.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ASML itself has laid out the expected path in terms of optimised margins through both add-ons facing the buyer side and upstream cost reductions facing their suppliers creating a sweet spot for the company effectively striving to achieve the same profitability profile as for its more mature DUV platform.</p><p><blockquote>ASML本身已经通过面向买方的附加产品和面向供应商的上游成本降低，在优化利润率方面制定了预期路径，为公司创造了一个最佳点，有效地努力实现与其更成熟的DUV平台相同的盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/809661531ad423f613fb44c26e0b3352\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 25.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。25.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If that wasn’t good enough, then add the fact that the semiconductor industry in general is expected to outpace general GDP for at least until 2028 with a CAGR of 8.6%. Recentcommunicationsby Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel and Samsung Electronics Company (OTC:SSNLF) shows the strength and growth potential for the sector with their combined CAPEX expectations going beyond $200 billion for the coming decade, with a significant chunk of that within the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>如果这还不够好，那么再加上这样一个事实，即半导体行业总体预计至少在2028年之前将超过总体GDP，复合年增长率为8.6%。台积电、英特尔和三星电子公司（场外交易代码：SSNLF）最近的通讯显示了该行业的实力和增长潜力，他们预计未来十年的总资本支出将超过2000亿美元，其中很大一部分将在未来几年内实现。</blockquote></p><p> As can be seen in the illustration above, ASML expects increased customer value through upgrades, with their roadmap for DUV serving as an example in terms of how the revenue base could expand over the coming years for EUV as is the case for DUV via what the company has labelled installed base management.</p><p><blockquote>从上图中可以看出，ASML希望通过升级来增加客户价值，他们的DUV路线图可以作为一个例子，说明EUV的收入基础如何在未来几年扩大，就像DUV的情况一样。该公司已标记为安装基础管理。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8ef7940a4b888c50159e5b9db4c0634\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, DUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 10.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，DUV产品和商机，第14页。10.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> There is of course always the possibility of a serious contender entering the marketplace in order to try and challenge ASML, but companies have tried to enter the space when the technology was in its infancy having given up, meaning the prime threat would be the emergence of a new lithography technology arriving and doing to EUV what EUV did to DUV. Possible sure, likely, not so much. Just to hammer down the point, I’ve inserted a paragraph from ASML’s own description of how lithography plays its role.</p><p><blockquote>当然，总有可能有一个强有力的竞争者进入市场，试图挑战ASML，但公司在该技术处于起步阶段时就试图进入该领域，但已经放弃了，这意味着主要威胁将是一种新的光刻技术的出现，对EUV的影响就像EUV对DUV所做的那样。可能当然，很可能，没那么多。为了强调这一点，我插入了ASML自己对光刻如何发挥作用的描述中的一段话。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   “  <i>Lithography is a driving force in the creation of more powerful, faster and cheaper chips. The manufacturing of chips becomes increasingly complex as semiconductor feature sizes shrink, while the imperative to mass produce at the right cost remains. Our holistic lithography product portfolio helps to optimize production and enable affordable shrink by integrating lithography systems with computational modeling, as well as metrology and inspection solutions. A lithography system is essentially a projection system. Light is projected through a blueprint of the pattern that will be printed (known as a ‘mask’ or ‘reticle’). With the pattern encoded in the light, the system’s optics shrink and focus the pattern onto a photosensitive silicon wafer. After the pattern is printed, the system moves the wafer slightly and makes another copy on the wafer. This process is repeated until the wafer is covered in patterns, completing one layer of the wafer’s chips. To make an entire microchip, this process is repeated layer after layer, stacking the patterns to create an integrated circuit (IC). The simplest chips have around 10 layers, while the most complex can have over 150 layers. The size of the features to be printed varies depending on the layer, which means that different types of lithography systems are used for different layers – our latest-generation EUV systems for the most critical layers with the smallest features to ArF, KrF, and i-line DUV systems for less critical layers with larger features.</i>”  <i>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</i>  <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa32572971943844c4e71ddfc77559d6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"547\"><span>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</span></p><p><blockquote>“<i>光刻技术是制造更强大、更快、更便宜芯片的驱动力。随着半导体特征尺寸的缩小，芯片的制造变得越来越复杂，而以合适的成本大规模生产的必要性仍然存在。我们的整体光刻产品组合通过将光刻系统与计算建模以及计量和检测解决方案集成，有助于优化生产并实现可承受的收缩。光刻系统本质上是投影系统。光通过将被打印的图案的蓝图(称为“掩模”或“掩模”)投射。随着图案被编码在光中，系统的光学器件收缩并将图案聚焦到光敏硅晶片上。在打印图案之后，系统稍微移动晶片并在晶片上进行另一次复制。重复该过程，直到晶片被图案覆盖，完成晶片的一层芯片。为了制造整个微芯片，该过程一层又一层地重复，堆叠图案以创建集成电路(IC)。最简单的芯片大约有10层，而最复杂的芯片可以有超过150层。要打印的特征尺寸因层而异，这意味着不同类型的光刻系统用于不同的层——我们最新一代的EUV系统用于具有最小特征的最关键层，而ArF、KrF和i-line DUV系统用于具有较大特征的不太关键层。</i>”<i>ASML 2020年年度报告，光刻的作用，第14页。12.</i><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2020年年度报告，光刻的作用，第14页。12.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I believe most investors are familiar with confirmation bias, and if they aren’t, they should grab a book and educate themselves. Having read through this section, it can easily sound as if I as the author is suffering from confirmation bias given how strongly I’ve advocated for ASML’s position and competitive power. However, I’ve striven towards identifying situations that could severely impact ASML and being honest I can’t find it. There are of course the risks associated with geopolitical tension, which also showed itself in the stock price back in 2016, the risk of supply chain disruption as is currently transpiring across the industry and competition for talent. These are touched upon by the company itself in their annual report 2020 p. 21 and no industry comes without potential risks.</p><p><blockquote>我相信大多数投资者都熟悉确认偏差，如果他们不熟悉，他们应该拿本书自学。通读这一部分后，考虑到我对ASML的地位和竞争力的强烈支持，我作为作者很容易受到确认偏见的困扰。然而，我一直在努力找出可能严重影响ASML的情况，老实说，我找不到。当然，也存在与地缘政治紧张局势相关的风险，这在2016年的股价中也有所体现，目前整个行业正在发生的供应链中断的风险以及人才竞争。该公司自己在其2020年年度报告第21页中提到了这些问题，没有一个行业没有潜在风险。</blockquote></p><p> So, to sum it all up:</p><p><blockquote>所以，总结一下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>ASML has pioneered EUV lithography, with no competitors in sight</li>  <li>EUV will enable the continuation of Moore’s Law and will drive long term value for ASML and its customers well into this decade</li>  <li>The semiconductor sector forecasted to grow at CAGR of 8.6% through 2028, outpacing general GDP with ASML being a key supplier to the manufacturers (foundries)</li>  <li>Strong industry CAPEX driving demand for ASML offerings</li>  <li>The path forward for expanding EUV business in terms of installed base management, margins improvement and manufacturer dependency on EUV machinery for leading edge chips</li>  <li>ASML is a crucial player for leading edge chip manufacturing</li> </ul> Sounds pretty good to me.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>ASML开创了EUV光刻，看不到竞争对手</li><li>EUV将使摩尔定律得以延续，并将在本十年为ASML及其客户带来长期价值</li><li>预计到2028年，半导体行业的复合年增长率将达到8.6%，超过总体GDP，ASML是制造商（代工厂）的主要供应商</li><li>强劲的行业资本支出推动了对ASML产品的需求</li><li>在装机基础管理、利润率提高以及制造商对领先芯片的EUV机械的依赖方面扩大EUV业务的前进道路</li><li>ASML是领先芯片制造的关键参与者</li></ul>对我来说听起来不错。</blockquote></p><p> The Financial Performance and Development</p><p><blockquote>财务表现及发展</blockquote></p><p> ASML is doing well for itself as evident by the illustration below.</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，ASML自身表现良好。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Strong revenue growth</li>  <li>Strong margin expansion</li>  <li>Strong improvement in free cash flow</li>  <li>Impressive operational improvements strengthening its moat through increased R&amp;D spend and IP portfolio</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7900753b1857ac9ad6fc705b9baad563\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"414\"><span>Annual Report 2020, p 7.</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>收入增长强劲</li><li>利润率强劲扩张</li><li>自由现金流强劲改善</li><li>令人印象深刻的运营改进通过增加研发支出和知识产权组合来加强其护城河</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2020年年度报告，第7页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This was followed by a strong Q1-2021 performance with mouth-watering financials on both top and bottom line. However, for their Q2-2021 performance they are guiding for slightly lower revenue expansion at €4.1 billion with a gross margin of 49%, which is still above the long term average but closer to it. There is however no denying that the company is thriving in the current environment.</p><p><blockquote>随后是2021年第一季度的强劲表现，营收和利润都令人垂涎。然而，对于2021年第二季度的业绩，他们预计收入扩张略低，为41亿欧元，毛利率为49%，仍高于长期平均水平，但更接近长期平均水平。然而，不可否认的是，该公司在当前环境下蓬勃发展。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60ea4dedde41a918bd9e1fd307a9531f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 14.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2021年第一季度，第14页。14.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> An interesting detail is the development within the installed base management as illustrated earlier in the article. The company is delivering on its promise with a strong development within this segment growing 29% YoY from 2019 to 2020, well beyond the total growth of 18%.</p><p><blockquote>一个有趣的细节是安装库管理中的开发，如本文前面所述。该公司正在兑现其承诺，该领域的强劲发展从2019年到2020年同比增长29%，远远超过18%的总增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6966dcaf747d226d5de580187d4d3ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 8.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2021年第一季度，第14页。8.</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The more interesting question however is whether the market estimates are underestimating the potential for ASML. An immensely hard question, but if we give it a look, I personally at least see the possibility of that being the case.</p><p><blockquote>然而，更有趣的问题是，市场估计是否低估了ASML的潜力。这是一个非常困难的问题，但如果我们看一看，我个人至少看到了这种可能性。</blockquote></p><p> Are Analyst Consensus Estimates Under- or Over-Estimating ASML’s Potential?</p><p><blockquote>分析师的一致估计是低估了还是高估了ASML的潜力？</blockquote></p><p> ASML is well-covered by analysts offering estimates all the way through 2028, but with coverage waning once we go beyond 2025 which is the last year covered by more than one analyst. The current estimates show a revenue CAGR development of 11.1% from 2020 to 2028, but if we remove 2021, which shows stellar growth, the CAGR is 6.5%.</p><p><blockquote>分析师对ASML的报道很好，他们提供了到2028年的预测，但一旦我们超过2025年，报道范围就会减弱，这是最后一年有超过一名分析师报道。目前的估计显示，从2020年到2028年，收入CAGR发展为11.1%，但如果我们去掉2021年的强劲增长，CAGR为6.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9adf4cebbce28dc7433186b5bd0827e8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Author's Own Creation, Source Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>作者自己的创作，来源寻求阿尔法。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Remember the sector as a whole is forecasted to exhibit growth at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028. These are all estimates which carry great uncertainty with no one able to reliably predict the future. However, it is worth noticing that revenue estimates for ASML are below the sector as a whole if the massive jump from 2020 to 2021 is left out of the equation. Average revenue growth from 2026 to 2028 is currently estimated to be 3.5%.</p><p><blockquote>请记住，预计到2028年，整个行业的复合年增长率将达到8.6%。这些都是带有很大不确定性的估计，没有人能够可靠地预测未来。然而，值得注意的是，如果不考虑2020年至2021年的大幅增长，ASML的收入预期将低于整个行业。目前预计2026年至2028年的平均收入增长率为3.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Considering some of the arguments in favour of why ASML’s outlook could be even more positive:</p><p><blockquote>考虑一些支持ASML前景可能更加积极的论点：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>General semiconductor industry CAGR 2020-2028 forecasted at 8.6%.</li>  <li>DUV CAGR 2020-2025forecastedat 8.4%, it is still ASML’s largest product category.</li>  <li>EUV CAGR 2020-2027forecastedat 12%.</li>  <li>ASML is a linchpin player to solve chip shortage through technology advancement and its machines define the performance of every electrical gadget we utilise in our daily lives.</li>  <li>ASML shows progress in its plan to widen the ecosystem for its machinery through \"Installed Base Management\" increasing the total addressable market by upwards of double digits percentage as 2018 sales were 20% installed base management and 2025 estimate is 50%.</li>  <li>ASML dominates the DUV immersion segment, the part of DUV with high margins as its two solecompetitorsin DUV, Nikon and Canon lack the means and capabilities.</li>  <li>As the market transitions to EUV, the demand for DUV willfollowas the chip stacking process benefits from both systems through its manufacturing.</li> </ul> This is without mentioning the potential price increases that could trickle down towards its customers as they could be fighting over ASML’s capacity due to its strong market position of 85% in DUV and monopoly within EUV while also bringing High NA-EUV to market by mid of this decade. Customers today pay roughly $130-150 million for EUV machines, while DUV machines come in at around $100 million. The largest hindrance to ASML overdelivering is its current capacity constraint in terms of ability to deliver EUV systems which is capped somewhere between 40 and 50 systems a year, with the company of course striving to expand that capacity constraint as demand builds up over the years. On the other hand, this could also be a driver for price increases as ASML strives to expand capacity.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>通用半导体行业CAGR 2020-2028年预测为8.6%。</li><li>DUV CAGR 2020-2025预测为8.4%，仍然是ASML最大的产品类别。</li><li>EUV CAGR 2020-2027年预测为12%。</li><li>ASML是通过技术进步解决芯片短缺的关键参与者，其机器定义了我们日常生活中使用的每一个电子设备的性能。</li><li>ASML在通过“安装基础管理”扩大其机械生态系统的计划方面取得了进展，使总目标市场增加了两位数以上的百分比，因为2018年的销售额占安装基础管理的20%，2025年的估计为50%。</li><li>ASML在DUV沉浸式细分市场占据主导地位，这是DUV利润率较高的部分，因为其在DUV的两个唯一竞争对手尼康和佳能缺乏手段和能力。</li><li>随着市场向EUV过渡，对DUV的需求将随之而来，因为芯片堆叠工艺通过其制造从这两种系统中受益。</li></ul>这还没有提到潜在的价格上涨可能会渗透到其客户身上，因为他们可能会争夺ASML的产能，因为ASML在DUV中占据85%的强大市场地位以及在EUV中的垄断地位，同时也在中期将高NA-EUV推向市场。这十年。如今，客户为EUV机器支付大约1.3-1.5亿美元，而DUV机器的价格约为1亿美元。ASML超额交付的最大障碍是其目前交付EUV系统的能力限制，每年交付EUV系统的能力限制在40到50个系统之间，随着多年来需求的增加，该公司当然会努力扩大这一能力限制。另一方面，随着ASML努力扩大产能，这也可能成为价格上涨的驱动力。</blockquote></p><p> I will not try to construct an even bolder revenue guidance as it’s a cheap shot and frankly, no one has the capacity to accurately forecast if the current expectations will stand or whether they are too positive or negative. I just want to highlight that with everything going on and ASML’s market position in mind, I don’t consider it unreasonable that the company will do even better than currently anticipated.</p><p><blockquote>我不会试图构建一个更大胆的收入指引，因为这是一个廉价的机会，坦率地说，没有人有能力准确预测当前的预期是否成立，或者它们是否过于积极或消极。我只想强调，考虑到正在发生的一切以及ASML的市场地位，我认为该公司的表现比目前预期的更好并不是不合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> The stock price is an inch away from its 52-week high and has been on a tear since the beginning of 2020, really taking off since October 2020 from which it has doubled since.</p><p><blockquote>该股价距离52周高点仅一英寸，自2020年初以来一直在上涨，自2020年10月以来真正起飞，此后已翻了一番。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/472c0e2f540c1d4ee2a7bbaec09379c0\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"453\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Market cap has exploded with all other parameters left in its wake having seen a significant expansion in price-earnings ratio despite a strong improvement in EPS and revenue. The stock market has long since recognised the story and potential of ASML with the Wall Street analyst target currently at $722 per share. Fair to say, there is no margin of safety if the analysts are correct in the predictions. Interestingly, out of the 30 analysts offering a price target, the percentage who are very bullish hasn’t been higher since 2016 with 56% stating a very bullish opinion. There is a mental exercise in staying cautious in terms of believing in such statements, not least because the stock has only known one direction for the last couple of years – upwards.</p><p><blockquote>尽管每股收益和收入强劲改善，但所有其他参数都出现了爆炸式增长，市盈率也大幅扩大。股市早已认识到ASML的故事和潜力，华尔街分析师目前的目标是每股722美元。公平地说，如果分析师的预测是正确的，就没有安全边际。有趣的是，在提供价格目标的30名分析师中，非常看涨的比例自2016年以来从未如此之高，其中56%的分析师表示非常看涨。在相信此类言论时保持谨慎是一种心理锻炼，尤其是因为该股在过去几年中只知道一个方向——向上。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The significance of the expansion in typical ratios is evident when considered over a five-year horizon as shown below. Both P/E and P/S have expanded massively standing at 55 and 15.7 respectively. However, the company is in a very different place compared to three years ago.</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，当考虑到五年的时间范围时，典型比率扩张的重要性是显而易见的。市盈率和市盈率均大幅上涨，分别为55和15.7。然而，与三年前相比，该公司的处境截然不同。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c691d4662a793b5de150add67a3a4e11\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Revenue is growing significantly faster than previously with gross margin and free cash flow also having improved. Due to this positive development, ASML is also returning plenty of capital to its shareholders with a share buyback program of €10 billion for 2021, which unfortunately only translates to a reduction of 0.5% of the current float.</p><p><blockquote>收入增长速度明显快于以前，毛利率和自由现金流也有所改善。由于这一积极的发展，ASML还通过2021年100亿欧元的股票回购计划向股东返还了大量资本，不幸的是，这仅相当于当前流通量减少了0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7341584d3ba7b1db51e1eef3c4bdaccd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The strong belief in ASML going forward is also clearly illustrated by the estimates for the coming years, which throughout the most recent years has been steadily climbing due to the company’s strong portfolio and market dominance.</p><p><blockquote>对ASML未来几年的预测也清楚地表明了人们对ASML未来的坚定信心，由于该公司强大的投资组合和市场主导地位，近年来该预测一直在稳步攀升。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b262aeeb8d75114dbc3e45bf9464c830\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With all that said, I believe that current shareholders do well for themselves in holding on to their existing shares as this company has a great outlook. I’ve had my eyes on ASML for the last year, and I’m extremely sad to say I never got around to looking into it properly, but only looked it at from afar and concluded that the stock might be due for a good pullback at one point. Little did I know.</p><p><blockquote>综上所述，我相信目前的股东在持有现有股份方面做得很好，因为这家公司前景广阔。去年我一直在关注ASML，我非常难过地说，我从未抽出时间仔细研究过它，只是从远处看了看，并得出结论，该股可能会出现良好的回调在某一点上。我一点也不知道。</blockquote></p><p> As Peter Lynch famously said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves,” as would also be true for someone like me who didn’t act in time. I’m still massively fascinated by ASML’s outlook and potential journey, but at the current price, I remain hesitant about the prospects and the lack of margin of safety.</p><p><blockquote>正如彼得·林奇（Peter Lynch）的名言，“投资者为调整做准备或试图预测调整而损失的资金远远多于调整本身损失的资金”，对于像我这样没有及时采取行动的人来说也是如此。我仍然对ASML的前景和潜在旅程非常着迷，但以目前的价格，我仍然对前景和缺乏安全边际犹豫不决。</blockquote></p><p> There is a lot of potential for ASML to grow into its valuation, and if one is to add that current levels, I’d say dollar-cost averaging is a prudent strategy for the current price, while reserving the possibility to back up the truck for a full load if we see a pullback before end of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>ASML的估值有很大的增长潜力，如果要加上当前的水平，我会说美元成本平均法对于当前价格来说是一种谨慎的策略，同时保留备份的可能性如果我们在2021年底之前看到回调，卡车将满载。</blockquote></p><p> As can be seen below, it is not uncommon for ASML to experience a 10% setback once or twice a year.</p><p><blockquote>从下面可以看出，ASML每年经历一两次10%的挫折并不罕见。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad90b51964870f5475b596fe16f63317\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> ASML is dominant within its two main offerings, the DUV and EUV lithography. Its market is backed by incredibly strong tailwinds as all our gadgets, electrical cars, 5G, datacentres, cloud servers, etc. are heavily reliant on the technology platform offered by ASML. A true innovator with no real competition in sight, feeding machinery and tools to an industry expected to grow at CAGR 8.6% through 2028 with potentially even stronger growth for both its DUV and EUV platforms while also expecting margin expansion.</p><p><blockquote>ASML在其两个主要产品DUV和EUV光刻中占据主导地位。它的市场得到了令人难以置信的强劲推动力的支持，因为我们所有的小工具、电动汽车、5G、数据中心、云服务器等。严重依赖ASML提供的技术平台。一家真正的创新者，看不到真正的竞争，为预计到2028年复合年增长率为8.6%的行业提供机械和工具，其DUV和EUV平台的增长可能会更强劲，同时预计利润率将扩大。</blockquote></p><p> There is little evil to be said about ASML, but unfortunately, the stock market has long since recognised its amazing story and potential. With such a strong outlook in sight, existing shareholders do well for themselves in holding onto their shares and just enjoy the journey ahead, but for the prospective shareholders, there appears to be a little margin of safety with the market cap having expanded significantly recently and the stock trading just an inch shy of its 52 week high.</p><p><blockquote>ASML没什么不好说的，但不幸的是，股市早已认识到其惊人的故事和潜力。在如此强劲的前景下，现有股东在持有股票并享受未来的旅程方面做得很好，但对于潜在股东来说，随着市值的大幅扩大，似乎还有一点安全边际。最近，该股的交易价格距离52周高点仅一英寸。</blockquote></p><p> As Peter Lynch said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” The exact fallacy I’ve fallen victim to as I’ve looked at ASML from afar for quite a while. Despite the recent expansion in market cap and multiples, there could be made a case for current estimates underestimating ASML’s true potential, but any forecast extending 5-10 years into the future comes with extreme uncertainty and guesstimation. As I’ve shown, ASML’s share price is prone to setbacks once or twice a year allowing dollar-cost averaging to serve as a method to acquire exposure to the company slowly building a position along the way.</p><p><blockquote>正如彼得·林奇（Peter Lynch）所说，“投资者准备调整或试图预测调整所损失的资金远远超过调整本身所损失的资金。”当我从远处看ASML很长一段时间时，我已经成为了这个谬论的受害者。尽管最近市值和市盈率有所扩大，但目前的估计可能低估了ASML的真正潜力，但任何延长到未来5-10年的预测都带有极大的不确定性和猜测。正如我所展示的，ASML的股价每年容易出现一到两次挫折，这使得平均成本法可以作为一种方法来获得该公司的风险敞口，并在此过程中慢慢建立头寸。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435422-asml-market-could-be-underestimating-its-potential\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ASML":"阿斯麦"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435422-asml-market-could-be-underestimating-its-potential","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168762020","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.\nDUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 12% through 2027.\nASML holds a monopoly within EUV and faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms absolutely vital for the semiconductor manufacturing process.\nA true innovator, ASML commands an outstanding position and growth outlook but the stock market has long since recognized the potential.\nExisting shareholders do well for themselves in just enjoying the ride, but there is little margin of safety left for prospective shareholders who might dip their toes into the water through dollar-cost averaging to benefit from the strong tailwinds powering ASML.\n\nMACRO PHOTO/iStock via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis\nASML Holding (ASML) commands a market position like no one else with not a competitor in sight for its most advanced technological platform, EUV lithography. Similarly, it faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms vital for semiconductor manufacturing. The household names within the semiconductor industry belong to the manufacturers, but the machinery providers, such as ASML, command very strong moats through extensive technological knowledge and strong process knowledge leaving all potential competitors years behind if they should ever try to compete.\nIt's hard to think of a better competitive situation, especially when operating in a sector forecasted to grow well above general GDP for many years to come. However, the market has long since recognized ASML's outstanding potential and potential journey, but still, it could be underestimating the potential.\nIntroduction\nI recently wrote an article concerning how youcan’t own too much semiconductor exposure. Having decomposed the value chain for semiconductor manufacturing, I received a number of questions concerning ASML in the comment sections and decided to conduct this follow-up. I’ve selected ASML due to its unique marketplace position and potential.\nPersonally I have exposure to the manufacturing level of the semiconductor value chain through shares in both Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), but venturing further back into the value chain, and investors can be allowed to invest in a broader manner into the industry, as the suppliers of machinery and software obtain a broader exposure to most of the manufacturers making it immensely interesting as you can adopt the mantra of “I don’t really mind who wins, as long as they are racing”. As such, potential exposure upstream in the value chain carries great interest.\nThe Marketplace and Value Drivers For Years To Come\nFor ASML followers it’s no surprise at this point, but ASML is dominant within the product offering that will drive its revenue for the coming decade, EUV (Extreme ultraviolet lithography) technology. My personal take is that it is hard to find a company in a similarly advantageous competitive position anywhere in any industry. ASML provides equipment for lithography, the art of printing the chip features via light sources, in several light spectrums with its most advanced being EUV which is the next-gen to DUV (deep ultraviolet lithography). For DUV there are competitors albeit ASML has a massive market share above 85%. The difference between DUV and EUV is that EUV operates at a light wavelength almost 15 times smaller than DUV (13.5nm compared to 193nm).\nActually, the semiconductor manufacturers for the leading edge chips such as 5nm and soon to be 3nm are deeply dependent on the EUV machinery. Without it, it simply wouldn’t be possible. That sounds like a pretty good bargain for those who can manufacture these machines, but there is only one company that is able to do it, and that is ASML. For every generation of new EUV machinery, its yield becomes better with higher throughput and reduced downtime issues, meaning that ASML is effectively lightyears ahead of anyone who would try to pick up the gauntlet and challenge their dominant position.\nThis is an industry where everything is about process knowledge. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is able to produce 5nm chips because it was able to produce 7nm, and it will be able to produce 3nm because it can produce 5nm and has done that a million times over which is also why it was so detrimental to Intel Corp (INTC) that it had to acknowledge its persistent issues with the 7nm technology.\nQuite simply, there is no 3nm if you can’t do the 5nm, as also discussed in my previous article. Same goes for ASML as a competitor would be years and years behind ASML if they entered the EUV space as they would struggle with the same issues that have plagued ASML in its early days of EUV more than a decade ago. I’ve included a number of illustrations from their most recent investor day which took place in November 2018, with the next one to take place in September 2021.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 6.\nThe picture above clearly illustrates the process knowledge having been picked up by ASML throughout its EUV lifetime. This has also translated into better EUV machinery for each new generation as also evident by its productivity improvements. Again, I can’t imagine a more favourable competitive situation for a company, given how much time and capital it would require for a competitor to adopt the EUV technology.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 16.\nSemiconductor manufacturing is a cutthroat business with heavy R&D spend (it took ASML €6 billion in R&D spend to invent EUV) driving chip improvements according to Moore’s law, meaning that ASML is already working on the next-gen technology, referred to as High NA-EUV. High NA-EUV is still some time away, with the timeline below being slightly outdated, but its technology will significantly improve the EUV platform and power the industry beyond this decade. It takes time to develop the technology, improve yield and reduce downtime, but there is still plenty of opportunities for EUV in terms of marketplace expansion and margin improvement.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 21.\nASML itself has laid out the expected path in terms of optimised margins through both add-ons facing the buyer side and upstream cost reductions facing their suppliers creating a sweet spot for the company effectively striving to achieve the same profitability profile as for its more mature DUV platform.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 25.\nIf that wasn’t good enough, then add the fact that the semiconductor industry in general is expected to outpace general GDP for at least until 2028 with a CAGR of 8.6%. Recentcommunicationsby Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel and Samsung Electronics Company (OTC:SSNLF) shows the strength and growth potential for the sector with their combined CAPEX expectations going beyond $200 billion for the coming decade, with a significant chunk of that within the coming years.\nAs can be seen in the illustration above, ASML expects increased customer value through upgrades, with their roadmap for DUV serving as an example in terms of how the revenue base could expand over the coming years for EUV as is the case for DUV via what the company has labelled installed base management.\nASML Investor Day 2018, DUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 10.\nThere is of course always the possibility of a serious contender entering the marketplace in order to try and challenge ASML, but companies have tried to enter the space when the technology was in its infancy having given up, meaning the prime threat would be the emergence of a new lithography technology arriving and doing to EUV what EUV did to DUV. Possible sure, likely, not so much. Just to hammer down the point, I’ve inserted a paragraph from ASML’s own description of how lithography plays its role.\n\n “\n Lithography is a driving force in the creation of more powerful, faster and cheaper chips. The manufacturing of chips becomes increasingly complex as semiconductor feature sizes shrink, while the imperative to mass produce at the right cost remains. Our holistic lithography product portfolio helps to optimize production and enable affordable shrink by integrating lithography systems with computational modeling, as well as metrology and inspection solutions. A lithography system is essentially a projection system. Light is projected through a blueprint of the pattern that will be printed (known as a ‘mask’ or ‘reticle’). With the pattern encoded in the light, the system’s optics shrink and focus the pattern onto a photosensitive silicon wafer. After the pattern is printed, the system moves the wafer slightly and makes another copy on the wafer. This process is repeated until the wafer is covered in patterns, completing one layer of the wafer’s chips. To make an entire microchip, this process is repeated layer after layer, stacking the patterns to create an integrated circuit (IC). The simplest chips have around 10 layers, while the most complex can have over 150 layers. The size of the features to be printed varies depending on the layer, which means that different types of lithography systems are used for different layers – our latest-generation EUV systems for the most critical layers with the smallest features to ArF, KrF, and i-line DUV systems for less critical layers with larger features.”\n ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.\n\nASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.\nI believe most investors are familiar with confirmation bias, and if they aren’t, they should grab a book and educate themselves. Having read through this section, it can easily sound as if I as the author is suffering from confirmation bias given how strongly I’ve advocated for ASML’s position and competitive power. However, I’ve striven towards identifying situations that could severely impact ASML and being honest I can’t find it. There are of course the risks associated with geopolitical tension, which also showed itself in the stock price back in 2016, the risk of supply chain disruption as is currently transpiring across the industry and competition for talent. These are touched upon by the company itself in their annual report 2020 p. 21 and no industry comes without potential risks.\nSo, to sum it all up:\n\nASML has pioneered EUV lithography, with no competitors in sight\nEUV will enable the continuation of Moore’s Law and will drive long term value for ASML and its customers well into this decade\nThe semiconductor sector forecasted to grow at CAGR of 8.6% through 2028, outpacing general GDP with ASML being a key supplier to the manufacturers (foundries)\nStrong industry CAPEX driving demand for ASML offerings\nThe path forward for expanding EUV business in terms of installed base management, margins improvement and manufacturer dependency on EUV machinery for leading edge chips\nASML is a crucial player for leading edge chip manufacturing\n\nSounds pretty good to me.\nThe Financial Performance and Development\nASML is doing well for itself as evident by the illustration below.\n\nStrong revenue growth\nStrong margin expansion\nStrong improvement in free cash flow\nImpressive operational improvements strengthening its moat through increased R&D spend and IP portfolio\n\nAnnual Report 2020, p 7.\nThis was followed by a strong Q1-2021 performance with mouth-watering financials on both top and bottom line. However, for their Q2-2021 performance they are guiding for slightly lower revenue expansion at €4.1 billion with a gross margin of 49%, which is still above the long term average but closer to it. There is however no denying that the company is thriving in the current environment.\nASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 14.\nAn interesting detail is the development within the installed base management as illustrated earlier in the article. The company is delivering on its promise with a strong development within this segment growing 29% YoY from 2019 to 2020, well beyond the total growth of 18%.\nASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 8.\nThe more interesting question however is whether the market estimates are underestimating the potential for ASML. An immensely hard question, but if we give it a look, I personally at least see the possibility of that being the case.\nAre Analyst Consensus Estimates Under- or Over-Estimating ASML’s Potential?\nASML is well-covered by analysts offering estimates all the way through 2028, but with coverage waning once we go beyond 2025 which is the last year covered by more than one analyst. The current estimates show a revenue CAGR development of 11.1% from 2020 to 2028, but if we remove 2021, which shows stellar growth, the CAGR is 6.5%.\nAuthor's Own Creation, Source Seeking Alpha.\nRemember the sector as a whole is forecasted to exhibit growth at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028. These are all estimates which carry great uncertainty with no one able to reliably predict the future. However, it is worth noticing that revenue estimates for ASML are below the sector as a whole if the massive jump from 2020 to 2021 is left out of the equation. Average revenue growth from 2026 to 2028 is currently estimated to be 3.5%.\nConsidering some of the arguments in favour of why ASML’s outlook could be even more positive:\n\nGeneral semiconductor industry CAGR 2020-2028 forecasted at 8.6%.\nDUV CAGR 2020-2025forecastedat 8.4%, it is still ASML’s largest product category.\nEUV CAGR 2020-2027forecastedat 12%.\nASML is a linchpin player to solve chip shortage through technology advancement and its machines define the performance of every electrical gadget we utilise in our daily lives.\nASML shows progress in its plan to widen the ecosystem for its machinery through \"Installed Base Management\" increasing the total addressable market by upwards of double digits percentage as 2018 sales were 20% installed base management and 2025 estimate is 50%.\nASML dominates the DUV immersion segment, the part of DUV with high margins as its two solecompetitorsin DUV, Nikon and Canon lack the means and capabilities.\nAs the market transitions to EUV, the demand for DUV willfollowas the chip stacking process benefits from both systems through its manufacturing.\n\nThis is without mentioning the potential price increases that could trickle down towards its customers as they could be fighting over ASML’s capacity due to its strong market position of 85% in DUV and monopoly within EUV while also bringing High NA-EUV to market by mid of this decade. Customers today pay roughly $130-150 million for EUV machines, while DUV machines come in at around $100 million. The largest hindrance to ASML overdelivering is its current capacity constraint in terms of ability to deliver EUV systems which is capped somewhere between 40 and 50 systems a year, with the company of course striving to expand that capacity constraint as demand builds up over the years. On the other hand, this could also be a driver for price increases as ASML strives to expand capacity.\nI will not try to construct an even bolder revenue guidance as it’s a cheap shot and frankly, no one has the capacity to accurately forecast if the current expectations will stand or whether they are too positive or negative. I just want to highlight that with everything going on and ASML’s market position in mind, I don’t consider it unreasonable that the company will do even better than currently anticipated.\nValuation\nThe stock price is an inch away from its 52-week high and has been on a tear since the beginning of 2020, really taking off since October 2020 from which it has doubled since.\nData by YCharts\nMarket cap has exploded with all other parameters left in its wake having seen a significant expansion in price-earnings ratio despite a strong improvement in EPS and revenue. The stock market has long since recognised the story and potential of ASML with the Wall Street analyst target currently at $722 per share. Fair to say, there is no margin of safety if the analysts are correct in the predictions. Interestingly, out of the 30 analysts offering a price target, the percentage who are very bullish hasn’t been higher since 2016 with 56% stating a very bullish opinion. There is a mental exercise in staying cautious in terms of believing in such statements, not least because the stock has only known one direction for the last couple of years – upwards.\nThe significance of the expansion in typical ratios is evident when considered over a five-year horizon as shown below. Both P/E and P/S have expanded massively standing at 55 and 15.7 respectively. However, the company is in a very different place compared to three years ago.\nData by YCharts\nRevenue is growing significantly faster than previously with gross margin and free cash flow also having improved. Due to this positive development, ASML is also returning plenty of capital to its shareholders with a share buyback program of €10 billion for 2021, which unfortunately only translates to a reduction of 0.5% of the current float.\nData by YCharts\nThe strong belief in ASML going forward is also clearly illustrated by the estimates for the coming years, which throughout the most recent years has been steadily climbing due to the company’s strong portfolio and market dominance.\nData by YCharts\nWith all that said, I believe that current shareholders do well for themselves in holding on to their existing shares as this company has a great outlook. I’ve had my eyes on ASML for the last year, and I’m extremely sad to say I never got around to looking into it properly, but only looked it at from afar and concluded that the stock might be due for a good pullback at one point. Little did I know.\nAs Peter Lynch famously said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves,” as would also be true for someone like me who didn’t act in time. I’m still massively fascinated by ASML’s outlook and potential journey, but at the current price, I remain hesitant about the prospects and the lack of margin of safety.\nThere is a lot of potential for ASML to grow into its valuation, and if one is to add that current levels, I’d say dollar-cost averaging is a prudent strategy for the current price, while reserving the possibility to back up the truck for a full load if we see a pullback before end of 2021.\nAs can be seen below, it is not uncommon for ASML to experience a 10% setback once or twice a year.\nData by YCharts\nConclusion\nASML is dominant within its two main offerings, the DUV and EUV lithography. Its market is backed by incredibly strong tailwinds as all our gadgets, electrical cars, 5G, datacentres, cloud servers, etc. are heavily reliant on the technology platform offered by ASML. A true innovator with no real competition in sight, feeding machinery and tools to an industry expected to grow at CAGR 8.6% through 2028 with potentially even stronger growth for both its DUV and EUV platforms while also expecting margin expansion.\nThere is little evil to be said about ASML, but unfortunately, the stock market has long since recognised its amazing story and potential. With such a strong outlook in sight, existing shareholders do well for themselves in holding onto their shares and just enjoy the journey ahead, but for the prospective shareholders, there appears to be a little margin of safety with the market cap having expanded significantly recently and the stock trading just an inch shy of its 52 week high.\nAs Peter Lynch said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” The exact fallacy I’ve fallen victim to as I’ve looked at ASML from afar for quite a while. Despite the recent expansion in market cap and multiples, there could be made a case for current estimates underestimating ASML’s true potential, but any forecast extending 5-10 years into the future comes with extreme uncertainty and guesstimation. As I’ve shown, ASML’s share price is prone to setbacks once or twice a year allowing dollar-cost averaging to serve as a method to acquire exposure to the company slowly building a position along the way.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ASML":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1518,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166829929,"gmtCreate":1624002863761,"gmtModify":1634024286107,"author":{"id":"3582499726363900","authorId":"3582499726363900","name":"owlee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582499726363900","idStr":"3582499726363900"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good buy","listText":"Good buy","text":"Good buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166829929","repostId":"1198149770","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198149770","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623974643,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198149770?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 08:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Adobe Q2 Earnings Beat Expectations<blockquote>Adobe第二季度盈利超出预期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198149770","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Adobe stock is trading higher late Thursday after the creative-software company posted better-than-e","content":"<p>Adobe stock is trading higher late Thursday after the creative-software company posted better-than-expected results for its fiscal second quarter ended June 4.</p><p><blockquote>Adobe股价周四晚间走高，此前这家创意软件公司公布了截至6月4日的第二财季业绩好于预期。</blockquote></p><p> For the quarter, Adobe (ticker: ADBE) reported revenue of $3.84 billion, up 23% from a year ago, and ahead of the company’s forecast of $3.72 billion. Non-GAAP profits were $3.03 a share, ahead of the company’s projection of $2.81 a share. Under generally accepted accounting principles, Adobe earned $2.32 a share.</p><p><blockquote>Adobe（股票代码：ADBE）报告本季度营收为38.4亿美元，同比增长23%，高于该公司预期的37.2亿美元。非GAAP利润为每股3.03美元，高于公司预期的每股2.81美元。根据公认会计原则，Adobe每股盈利2.32美元。</blockquote></p><p> Adobe stock rose 2.7%&nbsp;to $566&nbsp;in extended trading.</p><p><blockquote>Adobe股价在盘后交易中上涨2.7%至566美元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28b7cdf0a510d12cc43d7e44330be797\" tg-width=\"1302\" tg-height=\"663\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Adobe’s results were above expectations in every segment. Digital Media revenue was $2.79 billion, up 25%, and four points better than the company’s guidance. That includes creative revenue of $2.32 billion, up 24%, and document cloud revenue of $496 million, up 30%.</p><p><blockquote>Adobe在每个领域的业绩都超出了预期。数字媒体收入为27.9亿美元，增长25%，比公司指引高出4个百分点。其中创意收入23.2亿美元，增长24%，文档云收入4.96亿美元，增长30%。</blockquote></p><p> Digital Experience segment revenue was $938 million, up 21%, and three points better than the company’s target for 18% growth.</p><p><blockquote>数字体验部门收入为9.38亿美元，增长21%，比公司18%增长的目标高出3个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> The company also said it bought back about 2.1 million shares in the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还表示，本季度回购了约210万股股票。</blockquote></p><p> For the fiscal third quarter, Adobe sees revenue of $3.88 billion, slightly higher than the Street consensus forecast of $3.83 billion, with non-GAAP profits of $3 a share, above the Street consensus estimate for $2.89 a share. The company sees growth in the quarter of 21% in the digital experience segment, and 25% in digital experience.</p><p><blockquote>Adobe预计第三财季营收为38.8亿美元，略高于华尔街普遍预期的38.3亿美元，非GAAP每股利润为3美元，高于华尔街普遍预期的每股2.89美元。该公司预计本季度数字体验领域增长21%，数字体验领域增长25%。</blockquote></p><p> “Adobe had an outstanding second quarter as Creative Cloud, Document Cloud and Experience Cloud continue to transform work, learn and play in a digital-first world,” Adobe CEO Shantanu Narayen said in a statement.</p><p><blockquote>Adobe首席执行官Shantanu Narayen在一份声明中表示：“随着Creative Cloud、Document Cloud和Experience Cloud继续改变数字优先世界中的工作、学习和娱乐，Adobe第二季度表现出色。”</blockquote></p><p> Chief Financial Officer John Murphy added in a statement that “the large market opportunity and momentum we are seeing across our creative, document and customer experience management businesses position us well to deliver another record year.”</p><p><blockquote>首席财务官约翰·墨菲(John Murphy)在一份声明中补充道：“我们在创意、文档和客户体验管理业务中看到的巨大市场机会和势头使我们能够再创历史新高。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Adobe Q2 Earnings Beat Expectations<blockquote>Adobe第二季度盈利超出预期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAdobe Q2 Earnings Beat Expectations<blockquote>Adobe第二季度盈利超出预期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-18 08:04</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Adobe stock is trading higher late Thursday after the creative-software company posted better-than-expected results for its fiscal second quarter ended June 4.</p><p><blockquote>Adobe股价周四晚间走高，此前这家创意软件公司公布了截至6月4日的第二财季业绩好于预期。</blockquote></p><p> For the quarter, Adobe (ticker: ADBE) reported revenue of $3.84 billion, up 23% from a year ago, and ahead of the company’s forecast of $3.72 billion. Non-GAAP profits were $3.03 a share, ahead of the company’s projection of $2.81 a share. Under generally accepted accounting principles, Adobe earned $2.32 a share.</p><p><blockquote>Adobe（股票代码：ADBE）报告本季度营收为38.4亿美元，同比增长23%，高于该公司预期的37.2亿美元。非GAAP利润为每股3.03美元，高于公司预期的每股2.81美元。根据公认会计原则，Adobe每股盈利2.32美元。</blockquote></p><p> Adobe stock rose 2.7%&nbsp;to $566&nbsp;in extended trading.</p><p><blockquote>Adobe股价在盘后交易中上涨2.7%至566美元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28b7cdf0a510d12cc43d7e44330be797\" tg-width=\"1302\" tg-height=\"663\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Adobe’s results were above expectations in every segment. Digital Media revenue was $2.79 billion, up 25%, and four points better than the company’s guidance. That includes creative revenue of $2.32 billion, up 24%, and document cloud revenue of $496 million, up 30%.</p><p><blockquote>Adobe在每个领域的业绩都超出了预期。数字媒体收入为27.9亿美元，增长25%，比公司指引高出4个百分点。其中创意收入23.2亿美元，增长24%，文档云收入4.96亿美元，增长30%。</blockquote></p><p> Digital Experience segment revenue was $938 million, up 21%, and three points better than the company’s target for 18% growth.</p><p><blockquote>数字体验部门收入为9.38亿美元，增长21%，比公司18%增长的目标高出3个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> The company also said it bought back about 2.1 million shares in the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还表示，本季度回购了约210万股股票。</blockquote></p><p> For the fiscal third quarter, Adobe sees revenue of $3.88 billion, slightly higher than the Street consensus forecast of $3.83 billion, with non-GAAP profits of $3 a share, above the Street consensus estimate for $2.89 a share. The company sees growth in the quarter of 21% in the digital experience segment, and 25% in digital experience.</p><p><blockquote>Adobe预计第三财季营收为38.8亿美元，略高于华尔街普遍预期的38.3亿美元，非GAAP每股利润为3美元，高于华尔街普遍预期的每股2.89美元。该公司预计本季度数字体验领域增长21%，数字体验领域增长25%。</blockquote></p><p> “Adobe had an outstanding second quarter as Creative Cloud, Document Cloud and Experience Cloud continue to transform work, learn and play in a digital-first world,” Adobe CEO Shantanu Narayen said in a statement.</p><p><blockquote>Adobe首席执行官Shantanu Narayen在一份声明中表示：“随着Creative Cloud、Document Cloud和Experience Cloud继续改变数字优先世界中的工作、学习和娱乐，Adobe第二季度表现出色。”</blockquote></p><p> Chief Financial Officer John Murphy added in a statement that “the large market opportunity and momentum we are seeing across our creative, document and customer experience management businesses position us well to deliver another record year.”</p><p><blockquote>首席财务官约翰·墨菲(John Murphy)在一份声明中补充道：“我们在创意、文档和客户体验管理业务中看到的巨大市场机会和势头使我们能够再创历史新高。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ADBE":"Adobe"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198149770","content_text":"Adobe stock is trading higher late Thursday after the creative-software company posted better-than-expected results for its fiscal second quarter ended June 4.\nFor the quarter, Adobe (ticker: ADBE) reported revenue of $3.84 billion, up 23% from a year ago, and ahead of the company’s forecast of $3.72 billion. Non-GAAP profits were $3.03 a share, ahead of the company’s projection of $2.81 a share. Under generally accepted accounting principles, Adobe earned $2.32 a share.\nAdobe stock rose 2.7% to $566 in extended trading.\n\nAdobe’s results were above expectations in every segment. Digital Media revenue was $2.79 billion, up 25%, and four points better than the company’s guidance. That includes creative revenue of $2.32 billion, up 24%, and document cloud revenue of $496 million, up 30%.\nDigital Experience segment revenue was $938 million, up 21%, and three points better than the company’s target for 18% growth.\nThe company also said it bought back about 2.1 million shares in the quarter.\nFor the fiscal third quarter, Adobe sees revenue of $3.88 billion, slightly higher than the Street consensus forecast of $3.83 billion, with non-GAAP profits of $3 a share, above the Street consensus estimate for $2.89 a share. The company sees growth in the quarter of 21% in the digital experience segment, and 25% in digital experience.\n“Adobe had an outstanding second quarter as Creative Cloud, Document Cloud and Experience Cloud continue to transform work, learn and play in a digital-first world,” Adobe CEO Shantanu Narayen said in a statement.\nChief Financial Officer John Murphy added in a statement that “the large market opportunity and momentum we are seeing across our creative, document and customer experience management businesses position us well to deliver another record year.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ADBE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1576,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160737960,"gmtCreate":1623806252950,"gmtModify":1634027890583,"author":{"id":"3582499726363900","authorId":"3582499726363900","name":"owlee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582499726363900","idStr":"3582499726363900"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh no","listText":"Oh no","text":"Oh no","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160737960","repostId":"2143680537","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1890,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187419493,"gmtCreate":1623761687212,"gmtModify":1634028804620,"author":{"id":"3582499726363900","authorId":"3582499726363900","name":"owlee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582499726363900","idStr":"3582499726363900"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great!&nbsp;","listText":"Great!&nbsp;","text":"Great!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187419493","repostId":"1127660571","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127660571","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623760680,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1127660571?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 20:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Toplines Before US Market Open on Tuesday<blockquote>周二美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127660571","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Stock futures edge up ahead of retail sales data.\nS&P 500 index is headed toward its 30th record clo","content":"<p><ul>  <li>Stock futures edge up ahead of retail sales data.</li>  <li>S&amp;P 500 index is headed toward its 30th record close of the year, bolstered by gains in tech stocks.</li>  <li><b>Increase in in PPI over past 12 months rises to 6.6% from 6.2%.</b></li>  <li><b>U.S. retail sales minus gas and autos fall 0.8% in May.</b></li>  <li><b>U.S. retail sales minus gas and autos fall 0.8% in May.</b></li> </ul> (June 15)&nbsp;<b>Producer prices climb 6.6% in May on annual basis, largest 12-month increase on record.</b>&nbsp;Producer prices rose at their fastest annual clip in nearly 11 years in May as inflation continued to build in the U.S. economy, the Labor Department reported Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>股票期货在零售销售数据公布前小幅上涨。</li><li>在科技股上涨的推动下，标普500指数即将创下今年第30个收盘纪录。</li><li><b>过去12个月PPI涨幅从6.2%升至6.6%。</b></li><li><b>美国5月份扣除汽油和汽车的零售额下降0.8%。</b></li><li><b>美国5月份扣除汽油和汽车的零售额下降0.8%。</b></li></ul>（6月15日）<b>5月份生产者价格按年率计算上涨6.6%，为有记录以来的12个月最大涨幅。</b>美国劳工部周二报告称，随着美国经济通胀持续加剧，5月份生产者价格涨幅创近11年来最快。</blockquote></p><p> On a monthly basis, the producer price index for final demand rose 0.8%, ahead of the Dow Jones estimate of 0.6%.</p><p><blockquote>按月计算，最终需求生产者价格指数上涨0.8%，高于道琼斯预期的0.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stock&nbsp;Market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>股票市场</b></blockquote></p><p> U.S. stock futures edged higher Tuesday ahead of fresh data that will indicate how much Americans spent in stores, at restaurants and online last month.</p><p><blockquote>美国股指期货周二小幅走高，新数据将显示美国人上个月在商店、餐馆和网上的支出。</blockquote></p><p> Futures tied to the S&amp;P 500 ticked up 0.1%, indicating that the broad benchmark index is on track to notch its thirtieth record close of the year. Nasdaq-100 futures gained 0.2%, pointing togains in technology stocksafter the opening bell.</p><p><blockquote>与标普500相关的期货上涨0.1%，表明该广泛的基准指数有望创下今年第三十个收盘纪录。纳斯达克100指数期货上涨0.2%，表明开盘后科技股上涨。</blockquote></p><p> At 8:38&nbsp;a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 18 points, or 0.05%, S&amp;P 500 e-minis were up 5.5 points, or 0.13%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 24.75 points, or 0.18%.</p><p><blockquote>上午8点38分。ET，道指e-minis上涨18点，涨幅0.05%，标普500 e-minis上涨5.5点，涨幅0.13%，纳斯达克100 e-minis上涨24.75点，涨幅0.18%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86af5e5e5e4faf68b304fa020ca3a033\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"487\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Investors expect that stocks will climb through the rest of the year due to easy monetary policies. Many people are also betting thathigher inflation, due to the easing of economic restrictions and supply-chain bottlenecks, will be temporary. Signs that inflation will be elevated for a prolonged period or that theFederal Reserve may retrace its supportcould shake that confidence, money managers said.</p><p><blockquote>投资者预计，由于宽松的货币政策，股市将在今年剩余时间内攀升。许多人还押注，由于经济限制和供应链瓶颈的缓解，通胀上升将是暂时的。基金经理表示，通胀将长期上升或美联储可能收回支持的迹象可能会动摇这种信心。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket: Vroom, Ping Identity, Sage Therapeutics &amp; more</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：Vroom、Ping Identity、Sage Therapeutics等</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>1)&nbsp;Vroom(VRM)</b> – Vroom intends to offer $500 million in convertible senior notes due in 2026. The used-vehicle e-commerce platform provider plans to use the proceeds for a variety of corporate purposes as well as investing in or acquiring new technologies. Its shares slid 6.1% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>1）轰鸣（VRM）</b>-Vroom打算发行2026年到期的5亿美元可转换优先票据。这家二手车电子商务平台提供商计划将所得款项用于各种企业用途以及投资或收购新技术。其股价在盘前交易中下跌6.1%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2)&nbsp;Ping Identity(PING) </b>– Ping Identity announced a 6 million share common stock offering, in a sale of shares held by investment funds affiliated with Vista Equity Partners. The identity management solutions company will not receive any proceeds from the offering. The stock tumbled 4.2% in premarket action.</p><p><blockquote><b>2）PING身份（PING）</b>-Ping Identity宣布发行600万股普通股，出售Vista Equity Partners附属投资基金持有的股份。身份管理解决方案公司不会从此次发行中获得任何收益。该股在盘前下跌4.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3)&nbsp;Sage Therapeutics(SAGE)</b> – The drugmaker’s shares tanked 17.5% in premarket trading following the release of study results for Sage’s experimental depression drug. The treatment resulted in a statistically significant improvement in symptoms, although it could take up to six weeks to be effective and treatment may be required for months.</p><p><blockquote><b>3）Sage Therapeutics（SAGE）</b>-在Sage实验性抑郁症药物的研究结果发布后，该制药商的股价在盘前交易中下跌17.5%。该治疗导致症状的统计学显著改善，尽管可能需要长达六周才能有效，并且可能需要数月的治疗。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4)&nbsp;Boeing(BA) </b>– The U.S. and European Union announced aresolution of the long-standing disputeover aircraft subsidies involving Boeing and European rival Airbus. The deal suspends World Trade Organization-authorized tariffs for five years, and U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai said it could serve as a model for resolving future disputes.</p><p><blockquote><b>4）波音（BA）</b>-美国和欧盟宣布解决涉及波音公司和欧洲竞争对手空中客车公司的长期飞机补贴争端。该协议将世界贸易组织授权的关税暂停五年，美国贸易代表凯瑟琳·戴表示，该协议可以作为解决未来争端的典范。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5)&nbsp;Exxon Mobil(XOM) </b>– Bank of America reiterated a “buy” rating on the energy giant’s stock, predicting that Exxon Mobil would hike its dividend before the end of the year following cost-cutting measures and a rebound in oil prices.</p><p><blockquote><b>5)埃克森美孚(XOM)</b>——美国银行重申了对这家能源巨头股票的“买入”评级，预计在成本削减措施和油价反弹后，埃克森美孚将在年底前提高股息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>6)&nbsp;Spirit Airlines(SAVE)</b> – Spirit Airlines said in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing that leisure demand has continued to improve throughout the second quarter, and that it has seen operating yields strengthen as well. Citi upgraded the stock to “buy” from “neutral” following that update, and shares rallied 2.6% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>6)精神航空(SAVE)</b>-精神航空在向美国证券交易委员会提交的文件中表示，整个第二季度休闲需求持续改善，营业收益率也有所增强。更新后，花旗将该股评级从“中性”上调至“买入”，股价在盘前上涨2.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>7)&nbsp;Fastenal(FAST)</b> – The maker of industrial and construction supplies was downgraded to “underweight” from “equal-weight” at Morgan Stanley, which notes a lull in customer acquisition as well as a stock that is already near an all-time high. The stock slid 2.2% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>7）Fastenal（快速）</b>-摩根士丹利将这家工业和建筑用品制造商的评级从“同等权重”下调至“跑输大盘”，摩根士丹利指出客户获取陷入停滞，而且该股已接近历史高点。该股盘前下跌2.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>8)&nbsp;AstraZeneca(AZN) </b>– AstraZeneca said an experimental monoclonal antibody treatment did not meet its main goal of preventing Covid-19 in patients who had been exposed to the virus. The company also said, however, that its Covid-19 vaccine is 92% effective against the so-called “Delta” variant of the virus.</p><p><blockquote><b>8）阿斯利康（AZN）</b>-阿斯利康表示，一种实验性单克隆抗体治疗方法没有达到其在接触过该病毒的患者中预防Covid-19的主要目标。然而，该公司还表示，其Covid-19疫苗对所谓的“Delta”病毒变种的有效率为92%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>9)&nbsp;Cracker Barrel(CBRL)</b> – Cracker Barrel announced a $275 million private offering of convertible senior notes due in 2026. The restaurant chain will use the proceeds to pay debt and for general corporate purposes.</p><p><blockquote><b>9）裂解桶（CBRL）</b>-Cracker Barrel宣布私募2.75亿美元2026年到期的可转换优先票据。该连锁餐厅将用所得款项偿还债务和用于一般公司用途。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>10)&nbsp;Novavax(NVAX)</b> – Novavax announced positive results from its first study of its Covid-19 vaccine and a flu vaccine administered simultaneously. The study suggested that simultaneous vaccination may be a viable strategy.</p><p><blockquote><b>10)诺瓦瓦克斯(NVAX)</b>-Novavax宣布其Covid-19疫苗和流感疫苗同时接种的首次研究取得积极结果。该研究表明，同时接种疫苗可能是一种可行的策略。</blockquote></p><p> <b>11)&nbsp;Intuit(INTU)</b> – The financial software company revealed in an SEC filing that its QuickBooks online service saw new customer acquisition grow by more than 25% year-over-year for the nine months ended April 30. Intuit shares had hit an all-time high in Monday’s trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>11）Intuit（INTU）</b>–这家金融软件公司在向SEC提交的文件中透露，截至4月30日的九个月内，其QuickBooks online服务的新客户获取量同比增长超过25%。Intuit股价在周一的交易中创下历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>12)&nbsp;Vimeo(VMEO)</b> – Vimeo reported that total revenue in May rose 42% from a year ago, with the video services company also seeing average revenue per user up 18%.</p><p><blockquote><b>12)Vimeo(VMEO)</b>-Vimeo报告称，5月份总收入同比增长42%，这家视频服务公司的每用户平均收入也增长了18%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Toplines Before US Market Open on Tuesday<blockquote>周二美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nToplines Before US Market Open on Tuesday<blockquote>周二美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-15 20:38</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><ul>  <li>Stock futures edge up ahead of retail sales data.</li>  <li>S&amp;P 500 index is headed toward its 30th record close of the year, bolstered by gains in tech stocks.</li>  <li><b>Increase in in PPI over past 12 months rises to 6.6% from 6.2%.</b></li>  <li><b>U.S. retail sales minus gas and autos fall 0.8% in May.</b></li>  <li><b>U.S. retail sales minus gas and autos fall 0.8% in May.</b></li> </ul> (June 15)&nbsp;<b>Producer prices climb 6.6% in May on annual basis, largest 12-month increase on record.</b>&nbsp;Producer prices rose at their fastest annual clip in nearly 11 years in May as inflation continued to build in the U.S. economy, the Labor Department reported Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>股票期货在零售销售数据公布前小幅上涨。</li><li>在科技股上涨的推动下，标普500指数即将创下今年第30个收盘纪录。</li><li><b>过去12个月PPI涨幅从6.2%升至6.6%。</b></li><li><b>美国5月份扣除汽油和汽车的零售额下降0.8%。</b></li><li><b>美国5月份扣除汽油和汽车的零售额下降0.8%。</b></li></ul>（6月15日）<b>5月份生产者价格按年率计算上涨6.6%，为有记录以来的12个月最大涨幅。</b>美国劳工部周二报告称，随着美国经济通胀持续加剧，5月份生产者价格涨幅创近11年来最快。</blockquote></p><p> On a monthly basis, the producer price index for final demand rose 0.8%, ahead of the Dow Jones estimate of 0.6%.</p><p><blockquote>按月计算，最终需求生产者价格指数上涨0.8%，高于道琼斯预期的0.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stock&nbsp;Market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>股票市场</b></blockquote></p><p> U.S. stock futures edged higher Tuesday ahead of fresh data that will indicate how much Americans spent in stores, at restaurants and online last month.</p><p><blockquote>美国股指期货周二小幅走高，新数据将显示美国人上个月在商店、餐馆和网上的支出。</blockquote></p><p> Futures tied to the S&amp;P 500 ticked up 0.1%, indicating that the broad benchmark index is on track to notch its thirtieth record close of the year. Nasdaq-100 futures gained 0.2%, pointing togains in technology stocksafter the opening bell.</p><p><blockquote>与标普500相关的期货上涨0.1%，表明该广泛的基准指数有望创下今年第三十个收盘纪录。纳斯达克100指数期货上涨0.2%，表明开盘后科技股上涨。</blockquote></p><p> At 8:38&nbsp;a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 18 points, or 0.05%, S&amp;P 500 e-minis were up 5.5 points, or 0.13%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 24.75 points, or 0.18%.</p><p><blockquote>上午8点38分。ET，道指e-minis上涨18点，涨幅0.05%，标普500 e-minis上涨5.5点，涨幅0.13%，纳斯达克100 e-minis上涨24.75点，涨幅0.18%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86af5e5e5e4faf68b304fa020ca3a033\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"487\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Investors expect that stocks will climb through the rest of the year due to easy monetary policies. Many people are also betting thathigher inflation, due to the easing of economic restrictions and supply-chain bottlenecks, will be temporary. Signs that inflation will be elevated for a prolonged period or that theFederal Reserve may retrace its supportcould shake that confidence, money managers said.</p><p><blockquote>投资者预计，由于宽松的货币政策，股市将在今年剩余时间内攀升。许多人还押注，由于经济限制和供应链瓶颈的缓解，通胀上升将是暂时的。基金经理表示，通胀将长期上升或美联储可能收回支持的迹象可能会动摇这种信心。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket: Vroom, Ping Identity, Sage Therapeutics &amp; more</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：Vroom、Ping Identity、Sage Therapeutics等</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>1)&nbsp;Vroom(VRM)</b> – Vroom intends to offer $500 million in convertible senior notes due in 2026. The used-vehicle e-commerce platform provider plans to use the proceeds for a variety of corporate purposes as well as investing in or acquiring new technologies. Its shares slid 6.1% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>1）轰鸣（VRM）</b>-Vroom打算发行2026年到期的5亿美元可转换优先票据。这家二手车电子商务平台提供商计划将所得款项用于各种企业用途以及投资或收购新技术。其股价在盘前交易中下跌6.1%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2)&nbsp;Ping Identity(PING) </b>– Ping Identity announced a 6 million share common stock offering, in a sale of shares held by investment funds affiliated with Vista Equity Partners. The identity management solutions company will not receive any proceeds from the offering. The stock tumbled 4.2% in premarket action.</p><p><blockquote><b>2）PING身份（PING）</b>-Ping Identity宣布发行600万股普通股，出售Vista Equity Partners附属投资基金持有的股份。身份管理解决方案公司不会从此次发行中获得任何收益。该股在盘前下跌4.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3)&nbsp;Sage Therapeutics(SAGE)</b> – The drugmaker’s shares tanked 17.5% in premarket trading following the release of study results for Sage’s experimental depression drug. The treatment resulted in a statistically significant improvement in symptoms, although it could take up to six weeks to be effective and treatment may be required for months.</p><p><blockquote><b>3）Sage Therapeutics（SAGE）</b>-在Sage实验性抑郁症药物的研究结果发布后，该制药商的股价在盘前交易中下跌17.5%。该治疗导致症状的统计学显著改善，尽管可能需要长达六周才能有效，并且可能需要数月的治疗。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4)&nbsp;Boeing(BA) </b>– The U.S. and European Union announced aresolution of the long-standing disputeover aircraft subsidies involving Boeing and European rival Airbus. The deal suspends World Trade Organization-authorized tariffs for five years, and U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai said it could serve as a model for resolving future disputes.</p><p><blockquote><b>4）波音（BA）</b>-美国和欧盟宣布解决涉及波音公司和欧洲竞争对手空中客车公司的长期飞机补贴争端。该协议将世界贸易组织授权的关税暂停五年，美国贸易代表凯瑟琳·戴表示，该协议可以作为解决未来争端的典范。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5)&nbsp;Exxon Mobil(XOM) </b>– Bank of America reiterated a “buy” rating on the energy giant’s stock, predicting that Exxon Mobil would hike its dividend before the end of the year following cost-cutting measures and a rebound in oil prices.</p><p><blockquote><b>5)埃克森美孚(XOM)</b>——美国银行重申了对这家能源巨头股票的“买入”评级，预计在成本削减措施和油价反弹后，埃克森美孚将在年底前提高股息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>6)&nbsp;Spirit Airlines(SAVE)</b> – Spirit Airlines said in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing that leisure demand has continued to improve throughout the second quarter, and that it has seen operating yields strengthen as well. Citi upgraded the stock to “buy” from “neutral” following that update, and shares rallied 2.6% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>6)精神航空(SAVE)</b>-精神航空在向美国证券交易委员会提交的文件中表示，整个第二季度休闲需求持续改善，营业收益率也有所增强。更新后，花旗将该股评级从“中性”上调至“买入”，股价在盘前上涨2.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>7)&nbsp;Fastenal(FAST)</b> – The maker of industrial and construction supplies was downgraded to “underweight” from “equal-weight” at Morgan Stanley, which notes a lull in customer acquisition as well as a stock that is already near an all-time high. The stock slid 2.2% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>7）Fastenal（快速）</b>-摩根士丹利将这家工业和建筑用品制造商的评级从“同等权重”下调至“跑输大盘”，摩根士丹利指出客户获取陷入停滞，而且该股已接近历史高点。该股盘前下跌2.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>8)&nbsp;AstraZeneca(AZN) </b>– AstraZeneca said an experimental monoclonal antibody treatment did not meet its main goal of preventing Covid-19 in patients who had been exposed to the virus. The company also said, however, that its Covid-19 vaccine is 92% effective against the so-called “Delta” variant of the virus.</p><p><blockquote><b>8）阿斯利康（AZN）</b>-阿斯利康表示，一种实验性单克隆抗体治疗方法没有达到其在接触过该病毒的患者中预防Covid-19的主要目标。然而，该公司还表示，其Covid-19疫苗对所谓的“Delta”病毒变种的有效率为92%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>9)&nbsp;Cracker Barrel(CBRL)</b> – Cracker Barrel announced a $275 million private offering of convertible senior notes due in 2026. The restaurant chain will use the proceeds to pay debt and for general corporate purposes.</p><p><blockquote><b>9）裂解桶（CBRL）</b>-Cracker Barrel宣布私募2.75亿美元2026年到期的可转换优先票据。该连锁餐厅将用所得款项偿还债务和用于一般公司用途。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>10)&nbsp;Novavax(NVAX)</b> – Novavax announced positive results from its first study of its Covid-19 vaccine and a flu vaccine administered simultaneously. The study suggested that simultaneous vaccination may be a viable strategy.</p><p><blockquote><b>10)诺瓦瓦克斯(NVAX)</b>-Novavax宣布其Covid-19疫苗和流感疫苗同时接种的首次研究取得积极结果。该研究表明，同时接种疫苗可能是一种可行的策略。</blockquote></p><p> <b>11)&nbsp;Intuit(INTU)</b> – The financial software company revealed in an SEC filing that its QuickBooks online service saw new customer acquisition grow by more than 25% year-over-year for the nine months ended April 30. Intuit shares had hit an all-time high in Monday’s trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>11）Intuit（INTU）</b>–这家金融软件公司在向SEC提交的文件中透露，截至4月30日的九个月内，其QuickBooks online服务的新客户获取量同比增长超过25%。Intuit股价在周一的交易中创下历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>12)&nbsp;Vimeo(VMEO)</b> – Vimeo reported that total revenue in May rose 42% from a year ago, with the video services company also seeing average revenue per user up 18%.</p><p><blockquote><b>12)Vimeo(VMEO)</b>-Vimeo报告称，5月份总收入同比增长42%，这家视频服务公司的每用户平均收入也增长了18%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127660571","content_text":"Stock futures edge up ahead of retail sales data.\nS&P 500 index is headed toward its 30th record close of the year, bolstered by gains in tech stocks.\nIncrease in in PPI over past 12 months rises to 6.6% from 6.2%.\nU.S. retail sales minus gas and autos fall 0.8% in May.\nU.S. retail sales minus gas and autos fall 0.8% in May.\n\n(June 15) Producer prices climb 6.6% in May on annual basis, largest 12-month increase on record. Producer prices rose at their fastest annual clip in nearly 11 years in May as inflation continued to build in the U.S. economy, the Labor Department reported Tuesday.\nOn a monthly basis, the producer price index for final demand rose 0.8%, ahead of the Dow Jones estimate of 0.6%.\nStock Market\nU.S. stock futures edged higher Tuesday ahead of fresh data that will indicate how much Americans spent in stores, at restaurants and online last month.\nFutures tied to the S&P 500 ticked up 0.1%, indicating that the broad benchmark index is on track to notch its thirtieth record close of the year. Nasdaq-100 futures gained 0.2%, pointing togains in technology stocksafter the opening bell.\nAt 8:38 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 18 points, or 0.05%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 5.5 points, or 0.13%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 24.75 points, or 0.18%.\n\nInvestors expect that stocks will climb through the rest of the year due to easy monetary policies. Many people are also betting thathigher inflation, due to the easing of economic restrictions and supply-chain bottlenecks, will be temporary. Signs that inflation will be elevated for a prolonged period or that theFederal Reserve may retrace its supportcould shake that confidence, money managers said.\nStocks making the biggest moves in the premarket: Vroom, Ping Identity, Sage Therapeutics & more\n1) Vroom(VRM) – Vroom intends to offer $500 million in convertible senior notes due in 2026. The used-vehicle e-commerce platform provider plans to use the proceeds for a variety of corporate purposes as well as investing in or acquiring new technologies. Its shares slid 6.1% in premarket trading.\n2) Ping Identity(PING) – Ping Identity announced a 6 million share common stock offering, in a sale of shares held by investment funds affiliated with Vista Equity Partners. The identity management solutions company will not receive any proceeds from the offering. The stock tumbled 4.2% in premarket action.\n3) Sage Therapeutics(SAGE) – The drugmaker’s shares tanked 17.5% in premarket trading following the release of study results for Sage’s experimental depression drug. The treatment resulted in a statistically significant improvement in symptoms, although it could take up to six weeks to be effective and treatment may be required for months.\n4) Boeing(BA) – The U.S. and European Union announced aresolution of the long-standing disputeover aircraft subsidies involving Boeing and European rival Airbus. The deal suspends World Trade Organization-authorized tariffs for five years, and U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai said it could serve as a model for resolving future disputes.\n5) Exxon Mobil(XOM) – Bank of America reiterated a “buy” rating on the energy giant’s stock, predicting that Exxon Mobil would hike its dividend before the end of the year following cost-cutting measures and a rebound in oil prices.\n6) Spirit Airlines(SAVE) – Spirit Airlines said in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing that leisure demand has continued to improve throughout the second quarter, and that it has seen operating yields strengthen as well. Citi upgraded the stock to “buy” from “neutral” following that update, and shares rallied 2.6% in the premarket.\n7) Fastenal(FAST) – The maker of industrial and construction supplies was downgraded to “underweight” from “equal-weight” at Morgan Stanley, which notes a lull in customer acquisition as well as a stock that is already near an all-time high. The stock slid 2.2% in the premarket.\n8) AstraZeneca(AZN) – AstraZeneca said an experimental monoclonal antibody treatment did not meet its main goal of preventing Covid-19 in patients who had been exposed to the virus. The company also said, however, that its Covid-19 vaccine is 92% effective against the so-called “Delta” variant of the virus.\n9) Cracker Barrel(CBRL) – Cracker Barrel announced a $275 million private offering of convertible senior notes due in 2026. The restaurant chain will use the proceeds to pay debt and for general corporate purposes.\n10) Novavax(NVAX) – Novavax announced positive results from its first study of its Covid-19 vaccine and a flu vaccine administered simultaneously. The study suggested that simultaneous vaccination may be a viable strategy.\n11) Intuit(INTU) – The financial software company revealed in an SEC filing that its QuickBooks online service saw new customer acquisition grow by more than 25% year-over-year for the nine months ended April 30. Intuit shares had hit an all-time high in Monday’s trading.\n12) Vimeo(VMEO) – Vimeo reported that total revenue in May rose 42% from a year ago, with the video services company also seeing average revenue per user up 18%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1556,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":119550798,"gmtCreate":1622556040214,"gmtModify":1634100513317,"author":{"id":"3582499726363900","authorId":"3582499726363900","name":"owlee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582499726363900","idStr":"3582499726363900"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy?","listText":"Buy?","text":"Buy?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/119550798","repostId":"2140618864","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1718,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":119527991,"gmtCreate":1622555982313,"gmtModify":1634100514366,"author":{"id":"3582499726363900","authorId":"3582499726363900","name":"owlee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582499726363900","idStr":"3582499726363900"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Higher!&nbsp;","listText":"Higher!&nbsp;","text":"Higher!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/119527991","repostId":"1117557808","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117557808","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1622554347,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1117557808?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-01 21:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Dow pops 270 points as June begins, S&P 500 nears record high<blockquote>6月初道琼斯指数上涨270点，标普500接近历史新高</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117557808","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"U.S. stocks climbed on Tuesday as enthusiasm about the economic reopening lifted the S&P 500 to near","content":"<p>U.S. stocks climbed on Tuesday as enthusiasm about the economic reopening lifted the S&amp;P 500 to near a record.</p><p><blockquote>美国股市周二攀升，因对经济重新开放的热情将标普500推升至接近纪录水平。</blockquote></p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 270 points, or 0.8%. The S&amp;P 500 gained 0.7%, putting the benchmark close to its record. On Friday, the S&amp;P 500 closed just 0.8% away from an all-time high.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数上涨270点，涨幅0.8%。标普500上涨0.7%，基准指数接近历史新高。周五，标普500收盘距离历史高点仅0.8%。</blockquote></p><p>The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.6%.</p><p><blockquote>纳斯达克综合指数上涨0.6%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a53d549679bed409628ad4412f7ac9d6\" tg-width=\"1047\" tg-height=\"476\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>The gains came as Covid cases continue to decline in the U.S. as vaccination rates rise. In a major milestone, more than half the U.S. population has received at least one dose of a Covid vaccination, according to CDC data posted Sunday. More than 62% of adults have received at leased one dose, the CDC said. There were just 12,663 new cases on Saturday, according to the CDC, the lowest since March 2020.</p><p><blockquote>随着疫苗接种率的上升，美国的新冠病例持续下降。根据CDC周日发布的数据，超过一半的美国人口至少接种了一剂新冠疫苗，这是一个重要的里程碑。CDC表示，超过62%的成年人至少接种了一剂疫苗。根据疾病预防控制中心的数据，周六新增病例仅12,663例，为2020年3月以来的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p>Stocks linked to a reopening economy led the gains in the premarket. Share of Carnival Corp and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings jumped more than 2% apiece. American Airlines and United airlines gained more than 1.5% each.</p><p><blockquote>与经济重新开放相关的股票在盘前领涨。嘉年华公司和挪威邮轮控股公司的股价分别上涨了2%以上。美国航空和联合航空涨幅均超过1.5%。</blockquote></p><p>Boeing gained 3.2% after one analyst&nbsp;recommended investors discount near-term hurdles&nbsp;for the aircraft maker and buy the stock while it's still below where it traded in early 2020.</p><p><blockquote>一位分析师建议投资者对这家飞机制造商的近期障碍进行折扣，并在该股仍低于2020年初的交易价格时买入该股，该公司股价上涨3.2%。</blockquote></p><p>Energy stocks gained as U.S. oil futures jumped nearly 3% to above $68 a barrel. Exxon, Chevron and Marathon Petroleum gained in premarket trading as the summer travel season kicked off.</p><p><blockquote>能源股上涨，美国石油期货上涨近3%，至每桶68美元上方。随着夏季旅游旺季的开始，埃克森美孚、雪佛龙和马拉松石油公司在盘前交易中上涨。</blockquote></p><p>Meme stock AMC Entertainment&nbsp;was jumping again&nbsp;after selling $230.5 million in new stock to an investor. The shares were up 14% after doubling last week.</p><p><blockquote>在向投资者出售2.305亿美元的新股后，Meme股票AMC院线再次上涨。该股继上周翻倍后上涨14%。</blockquote></p><p>The moves in overnight trading come after the blue-chip Dow and the S&amp;P 500 gained 1.93% and 0.55% in May, respectively, to mark their fourth consecutive positive month. The small-cap Russell 2000 rose 0.11% in May to post its eighth positive month in a row — its longest monthly win streak since 1995.</p><p><blockquote>在隔夜交易中，蓝筹股道琼斯指数和标普500指数在5月份分别上涨1.93%和0.55%，连续第四个月上涨。小盘股罗素2000指数5月份上涨0.11%，连续第八个月上涨，这是自1995年以来最长的月度连涨。</blockquote></p><p>The Nasdaq gained 2.06% last week to post its best weekly performance since April. However, the tech-heavy composite lost 1.53% in May, breaking a 6-month win streak.</p><p><blockquote>纳斯达克上周上涨2.06%，创下4月份以来的最佳单周表现。然而，以科技股为主的综合指数5月份下跌1.53%，打破了6个月的连涨势头。</blockquote></p><p>The stock market was closed Monday for Memorial Day.</p><p><blockquote>股市周一因阵亡将士纪念日休市。</blockquote></p><p>A key inflation gauge — the core personal consumption expenditures index —&nbsp;rose 3.1% in April from a year earlier,&nbsp;faster than the forecasted 2.9% increase. Despite the hotter-than-expected inflation data,treasury yields fell on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>一个关键的通胀指标——核心个人消费支出指数——4月份同比上涨3.1%，快于预期的2.9%。尽管通胀数据高于预期，但美国国债收益率周五仍下跌。</blockquote></p><p>“Overall, given the market’s reaction to [Friday]’s PCE release, investor concerns about inflation may have been exaggerated — or perhaps already priced in,” Chris Hussey, a managing director at&nbsp;Goldman Sachs, said in a note.</p><p><blockquote>高盛董事总经理克里斯·赫西(Chris Hussey)在一份报告中表示：“总体而言，鉴于市场对[周五]PCE发布的反应，投资者对通胀的担忧可能被夸大了，或者可能已经被消化了。”</blockquote></p><p>“Consensus may be building that the inflation we are seeing today is ‘good’ inflation — the kind of rise in prices that accompanies accelerating growth, not a monetary policy mistake,” Hussey said.</p><p><blockquote>赫西表示：“人们可能正在形成共识，即我们今天看到的通胀是‘好’通胀——伴随着增长加速的价格上涨，而不是货币政策错误。”</blockquote></p><p>Investors are awaiting the Federal Reserve’s meeting scheduled for June 15-16. Key for the markets is whether the Fed begins to believe that inflation is higher than it expected or that the economy is strengthening enough to progress without so much monetary support.</p><p><blockquote>投资者正在等待美联储定于6月15日至16日举行的会议。市场的关键是美联储是否开始相信通胀高于预期，或者经济正在走强到足以在没有如此多货币支持的情况下取得进展。</blockquote></p><p>May’s employment report, set to be released on Friday, will provide a key reading of the economy. According to Dow Jones, economists expect to see about 674,000 jobs created in May, after the much&nbsp;fewer-than-expected 266,000 jobs&nbsp;added in April.</p><p><blockquote>定于周五发布的5月份就业报告将提供经济的关键数据。根据道琼斯的数据，经济学家预计5月份将创造约674,000个就业岗位，而4月份新增就业岗位远低于预期的266,000个。</blockquote></p><p>Zoom Video Communications&nbsp;and&nbsp;Hewlett Packard Enterprise&nbsp;are set to report quarterly earnings results on Tuesday after the bell.</p><p><blockquote>Zoom Video通信公司和慧与公司将于周二盘后公布季度盈利结果。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dow pops 270 points as June begins, S&P 500 nears record high<blockquote>6月初道琼斯指数上涨270点，标普500接近历史新高</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDow pops 270 points as June begins, S&P 500 nears record high<blockquote>6月初道琼斯指数上涨270点，标普500接近历史新高</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-01 21:32</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S. stocks climbed on Tuesday as enthusiasm about the economic reopening lifted the S&amp;P 500 to near a record.</p><p><blockquote>美国股市周二攀升，因对经济重新开放的热情将标普500推升至接近纪录水平。</blockquote></p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 270 points, or 0.8%. The S&amp;P 500 gained 0.7%, putting the benchmark close to its record. On Friday, the S&amp;P 500 closed just 0.8% away from an all-time high.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数上涨270点，涨幅0.8%。标普500上涨0.7%，基准指数接近历史新高。周五，标普500收盘距离历史高点仅0.8%。</blockquote></p><p>The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.6%.</p><p><blockquote>纳斯达克综合指数上涨0.6%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a53d549679bed409628ad4412f7ac9d6\" tg-width=\"1047\" tg-height=\"476\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>The gains came as Covid cases continue to decline in the U.S. as vaccination rates rise. In a major milestone, more than half the U.S. population has received at least one dose of a Covid vaccination, according to CDC data posted Sunday. More than 62% of adults have received at leased one dose, the CDC said. There were just 12,663 new cases on Saturday, according to the CDC, the lowest since March 2020.</p><p><blockquote>随着疫苗接种率的上升，美国的新冠病例持续下降。根据CDC周日发布的数据，超过一半的美国人口至少接种了一剂新冠疫苗，这是一个重要的里程碑。CDC表示，超过62%的成年人至少接种了一剂疫苗。根据疾病预防控制中心的数据，周六新增病例仅12,663例，为2020年3月以来的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p>Stocks linked to a reopening economy led the gains in the premarket. Share of Carnival Corp and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings jumped more than 2% apiece. American Airlines and United airlines gained more than 1.5% each.</p><p><blockquote>与经济重新开放相关的股票在盘前领涨。嘉年华公司和挪威邮轮控股公司的股价分别上涨了2%以上。美国航空和联合航空涨幅均超过1.5%。</blockquote></p><p>Boeing gained 3.2% after one analyst&nbsp;recommended investors discount near-term hurdles&nbsp;for the aircraft maker and buy the stock while it's still below where it traded in early 2020.</p><p><blockquote>一位分析师建议投资者对这家飞机制造商的近期障碍进行折扣，并在该股仍低于2020年初的交易价格时买入该股，该公司股价上涨3.2%。</blockquote></p><p>Energy stocks gained as U.S. oil futures jumped nearly 3% to above $68 a barrel. Exxon, Chevron and Marathon Petroleum gained in premarket trading as the summer travel season kicked off.</p><p><blockquote>能源股上涨，美国石油期货上涨近3%，至每桶68美元上方。随着夏季旅游旺季的开始，埃克森美孚、雪佛龙和马拉松石油公司在盘前交易中上涨。</blockquote></p><p>Meme stock AMC Entertainment&nbsp;was jumping again&nbsp;after selling $230.5 million in new stock to an investor. The shares were up 14% after doubling last week.</p><p><blockquote>在向投资者出售2.305亿美元的新股后，Meme股票AMC院线再次上涨。该股继上周翻倍后上涨14%。</blockquote></p><p>The moves in overnight trading come after the blue-chip Dow and the S&amp;P 500 gained 1.93% and 0.55% in May, respectively, to mark their fourth consecutive positive month. The small-cap Russell 2000 rose 0.11% in May to post its eighth positive month in a row — its longest monthly win streak since 1995.</p><p><blockquote>在隔夜交易中，蓝筹股道琼斯指数和标普500指数在5月份分别上涨1.93%和0.55%，连续第四个月上涨。小盘股罗素2000指数5月份上涨0.11%，连续第八个月上涨，这是自1995年以来最长的月度连涨。</blockquote></p><p>The Nasdaq gained 2.06% last week to post its best weekly performance since April. However, the tech-heavy composite lost 1.53% in May, breaking a 6-month win streak.</p><p><blockquote>纳斯达克上周上涨2.06%，创下4月份以来的最佳单周表现。然而，以科技股为主的综合指数5月份下跌1.53%，打破了6个月的连涨势头。</blockquote></p><p>The stock market was closed Monday for Memorial Day.</p><p><blockquote>股市周一因阵亡将士纪念日休市。</blockquote></p><p>A key inflation gauge — the core personal consumption expenditures index —&nbsp;rose 3.1% in April from a year earlier,&nbsp;faster than the forecasted 2.9% increase. Despite the hotter-than-expected inflation data,treasury yields fell on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>一个关键的通胀指标——核心个人消费支出指数——4月份同比上涨3.1%，快于预期的2.9%。尽管通胀数据高于预期，但美国国债收益率周五仍下跌。</blockquote></p><p>“Overall, given the market’s reaction to [Friday]’s PCE release, investor concerns about inflation may have been exaggerated — or perhaps already priced in,” Chris Hussey, a managing director at&nbsp;Goldman Sachs, said in a note.</p><p><blockquote>高盛董事总经理克里斯·赫西(Chris Hussey)在一份报告中表示：“总体而言，鉴于市场对[周五]PCE发布的反应，投资者对通胀的担忧可能被夸大了，或者可能已经被消化了。”</blockquote></p><p>“Consensus may be building that the inflation we are seeing today is ‘good’ inflation — the kind of rise in prices that accompanies accelerating growth, not a monetary policy mistake,” Hussey said.</p><p><blockquote>赫西表示：“人们可能正在形成共识，即我们今天看到的通胀是‘好’通胀——伴随着增长加速的价格上涨，而不是货币政策错误。”</blockquote></p><p>Investors are awaiting the Federal Reserve’s meeting scheduled for June 15-16. Key for the markets is whether the Fed begins to believe that inflation is higher than it expected or that the economy is strengthening enough to progress without so much monetary support.</p><p><blockquote>投资者正在等待美联储定于6月15日至16日举行的会议。市场的关键是美联储是否开始相信通胀高于预期，或者经济正在走强到足以在没有如此多货币支持的情况下取得进展。</blockquote></p><p>May’s employment report, set to be released on Friday, will provide a key reading of the economy. According to Dow Jones, economists expect to see about 674,000 jobs created in May, after the much&nbsp;fewer-than-expected 266,000 jobs&nbsp;added in April.</p><p><blockquote>定于周五发布的5月份就业报告将提供经济的关键数据。根据道琼斯的数据，经济学家预计5月份将创造约674,000个就业岗位，而4月份新增就业岗位远低于预期的266,000个。</blockquote></p><p>Zoom Video Communications&nbsp;and&nbsp;Hewlett Packard Enterprise&nbsp;are set to report quarterly earnings results on Tuesday after the bell.</p><p><blockquote>Zoom Video通信公司和慧与公司将于周二盘后公布季度盈利结果。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117557808","content_text":"U.S. stocks climbed on Tuesday as enthusiasm about the economic reopening lifted the S&P 500 to near a record.The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 270 points, or 0.8%. The S&P 500 gained 0.7%, putting the benchmark close to its record. On Friday, the S&P 500 closed just 0.8% away from an all-time high.The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.6%.The gains came as Covid cases continue to decline in the U.S. as vaccination rates rise. In a major milestone, more than half the U.S. population has received at least one dose of a Covid vaccination, according to CDC data posted Sunday. More than 62% of adults have received at leased one dose, the CDC said. There were just 12,663 new cases on Saturday, according to the CDC, the lowest since March 2020.Stocks linked to a reopening economy led the gains in the premarket. Share of Carnival Corp and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings jumped more than 2% apiece. American Airlines and United airlines gained more than 1.5% each.Boeing gained 3.2% after one analyst recommended investors discount near-term hurdles for the aircraft maker and buy the stock while it's still below where it traded in early 2020.Energy stocks gained as U.S. oil futures jumped nearly 3% to above $68 a barrel. Exxon, Chevron and Marathon Petroleum gained in premarket trading as the summer travel season kicked off.Meme stock AMC Entertainment was jumping again after selling $230.5 million in new stock to an investor. The shares were up 14% after doubling last week.The moves in overnight trading come after the blue-chip Dow and the S&P 500 gained 1.93% and 0.55% in May, respectively, to mark their fourth consecutive positive month. The small-cap Russell 2000 rose 0.11% in May to post its eighth positive month in a row — its longest monthly win streak since 1995.The Nasdaq gained 2.06% last week to post its best weekly performance since April. However, the tech-heavy composite lost 1.53% in May, breaking a 6-month win streak.The stock market was closed Monday for Memorial Day.A key inflation gauge — the core personal consumption expenditures index — rose 3.1% in April from a year earlier, faster than the forecasted 2.9% increase. Despite the hotter-than-expected inflation data,treasury yields fell on Friday.“Overall, given the market’s reaction to [Friday]’s PCE release, investor concerns about inflation may have been exaggerated — or perhaps already priced in,” Chris Hussey, a managing director at Goldman Sachs, said in a note.“Consensus may be building that the inflation we are seeing today is ‘good’ inflation — the kind of rise in prices that accompanies accelerating growth, not a monetary policy mistake,” Hussey said.Investors are awaiting the Federal Reserve’s meeting scheduled for June 15-16. Key for the markets is whether the Fed begins to believe that inflation is higher than it expected or that the economy is strengthening enough to progress without so much monetary support.May’s employment report, set to be released on Friday, will provide a key reading of the economy. According to Dow Jones, economists expect to see about 674,000 jobs created in May, after the much fewer-than-expected 266,000 jobs added in April.Zoom Video Communications and Hewlett Packard Enterprise are set to report quarterly earnings results on Tuesday after the bell.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2307,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":196732374,"gmtCreate":1621121200698,"gmtModify":1634194001027,"author":{"id":"3582499726363900","authorId":"3582499726363900","name":"owlee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582499726363900","idStr":"3582499726363900"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes!&nbsp;","listText":"Yes!&nbsp;","text":"Yes!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/196732374","repostId":"1106979218","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1927,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":196732374,"gmtCreate":1621121200698,"gmtModify":1634194001027,"author":{"id":"3582499726363900","authorId":"3582499726363900","name":"owlee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582499726363900","authorIdStr":"3582499726363900"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes!&nbsp;","listText":"Yes!&nbsp;","text":"Yes!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/196732374","repostId":"1106979218","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1927,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":119527991,"gmtCreate":1622555982313,"gmtModify":1634100514366,"author":{"id":"3582499726363900","authorId":"3582499726363900","name":"owlee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582499726363900","authorIdStr":"3582499726363900"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Higher!&nbsp;","listText":"Higher!&nbsp;","text":"Higher!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/119527991","repostId":"1117557808","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117557808","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1622554347,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1117557808?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-01 21:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Dow pops 270 points as June begins, S&P 500 nears record high<blockquote>6月初道琼斯指数上涨270点，标普500接近历史新高</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117557808","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"U.S. stocks climbed on Tuesday as enthusiasm about the economic reopening lifted the S&P 500 to near","content":"<p>U.S. stocks climbed on Tuesday as enthusiasm about the economic reopening lifted the S&amp;P 500 to near a record.</p><p><blockquote>美国股市周二攀升，因对经济重新开放的热情将标普500推升至接近纪录水平。</blockquote></p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 270 points, or 0.8%. The S&amp;P 500 gained 0.7%, putting the benchmark close to its record. On Friday, the S&amp;P 500 closed just 0.8% away from an all-time high.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数上涨270点，涨幅0.8%。标普500上涨0.7%，基准指数接近历史新高。周五，标普500收盘距离历史高点仅0.8%。</blockquote></p><p>The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.6%.</p><p><blockquote>纳斯达克综合指数上涨0.6%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a53d549679bed409628ad4412f7ac9d6\" tg-width=\"1047\" tg-height=\"476\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>The gains came as Covid cases continue to decline in the U.S. as vaccination rates rise. In a major milestone, more than half the U.S. population has received at least one dose of a Covid vaccination, according to CDC data posted Sunday. More than 62% of adults have received at leased one dose, the CDC said. There were just 12,663 new cases on Saturday, according to the CDC, the lowest since March 2020.</p><p><blockquote>随着疫苗接种率的上升，美国的新冠病例持续下降。根据CDC周日发布的数据，超过一半的美国人口至少接种了一剂新冠疫苗，这是一个重要的里程碑。CDC表示，超过62%的成年人至少接种了一剂疫苗。根据疾病预防控制中心的数据，周六新增病例仅12,663例，为2020年3月以来的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p>Stocks linked to a reopening economy led the gains in the premarket. Share of Carnival Corp and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings jumped more than 2% apiece. American Airlines and United airlines gained more than 1.5% each.</p><p><blockquote>与经济重新开放相关的股票在盘前领涨。嘉年华公司和挪威邮轮控股公司的股价分别上涨了2%以上。美国航空和联合航空涨幅均超过1.5%。</blockquote></p><p>Boeing gained 3.2% after one analyst&nbsp;recommended investors discount near-term hurdles&nbsp;for the aircraft maker and buy the stock while it's still below where it traded in early 2020.</p><p><blockquote>一位分析师建议投资者对这家飞机制造商的近期障碍进行折扣，并在该股仍低于2020年初的交易价格时买入该股，该公司股价上涨3.2%。</blockquote></p><p>Energy stocks gained as U.S. oil futures jumped nearly 3% to above $68 a barrel. Exxon, Chevron and Marathon Petroleum gained in premarket trading as the summer travel season kicked off.</p><p><blockquote>能源股上涨，美国石油期货上涨近3%，至每桶68美元上方。随着夏季旅游旺季的开始，埃克森美孚、雪佛龙和马拉松石油公司在盘前交易中上涨。</blockquote></p><p>Meme stock AMC Entertainment&nbsp;was jumping again&nbsp;after selling $230.5 million in new stock to an investor. The shares were up 14% after doubling last week.</p><p><blockquote>在向投资者出售2.305亿美元的新股后，Meme股票AMC院线再次上涨。该股继上周翻倍后上涨14%。</blockquote></p><p>The moves in overnight trading come after the blue-chip Dow and the S&amp;P 500 gained 1.93% and 0.55% in May, respectively, to mark their fourth consecutive positive month. The small-cap Russell 2000 rose 0.11% in May to post its eighth positive month in a row — its longest monthly win streak since 1995.</p><p><blockquote>在隔夜交易中，蓝筹股道琼斯指数和标普500指数在5月份分别上涨1.93%和0.55%，连续第四个月上涨。小盘股罗素2000指数5月份上涨0.11%，连续第八个月上涨，这是自1995年以来最长的月度连涨。</blockquote></p><p>The Nasdaq gained 2.06% last week to post its best weekly performance since April. However, the tech-heavy composite lost 1.53% in May, breaking a 6-month win streak.</p><p><blockquote>纳斯达克上周上涨2.06%，创下4月份以来的最佳单周表现。然而，以科技股为主的综合指数5月份下跌1.53%，打破了6个月的连涨势头。</blockquote></p><p>The stock market was closed Monday for Memorial Day.</p><p><blockquote>股市周一因阵亡将士纪念日休市。</blockquote></p><p>A key inflation gauge — the core personal consumption expenditures index —&nbsp;rose 3.1% in April from a year earlier,&nbsp;faster than the forecasted 2.9% increase. Despite the hotter-than-expected inflation data,treasury yields fell on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>一个关键的通胀指标——核心个人消费支出指数——4月份同比上涨3.1%，快于预期的2.9%。尽管通胀数据高于预期，但美国国债收益率周五仍下跌。</blockquote></p><p>“Overall, given the market’s reaction to [Friday]’s PCE release, investor concerns about inflation may have been exaggerated — or perhaps already priced in,” Chris Hussey, a managing director at&nbsp;Goldman Sachs, said in a note.</p><p><blockquote>高盛董事总经理克里斯·赫西(Chris Hussey)在一份报告中表示：“总体而言，鉴于市场对[周五]PCE发布的反应，投资者对通胀的担忧可能被夸大了，或者可能已经被消化了。”</blockquote></p><p>“Consensus may be building that the inflation we are seeing today is ‘good’ inflation — the kind of rise in prices that accompanies accelerating growth, not a monetary policy mistake,” Hussey said.</p><p><blockquote>赫西表示：“人们可能正在形成共识，即我们今天看到的通胀是‘好’通胀——伴随着增长加速的价格上涨，而不是货币政策错误。”</blockquote></p><p>Investors are awaiting the Federal Reserve’s meeting scheduled for June 15-16. Key for the markets is whether the Fed begins to believe that inflation is higher than it expected or that the economy is strengthening enough to progress without so much monetary support.</p><p><blockquote>投资者正在等待美联储定于6月15日至16日举行的会议。市场的关键是美联储是否开始相信通胀高于预期，或者经济正在走强到足以在没有如此多货币支持的情况下取得进展。</blockquote></p><p>May’s employment report, set to be released on Friday, will provide a key reading of the economy. According to Dow Jones, economists expect to see about 674,000 jobs created in May, after the much&nbsp;fewer-than-expected 266,000 jobs&nbsp;added in April.</p><p><blockquote>定于周五发布的5月份就业报告将提供经济的关键数据。根据道琼斯的数据，经济学家预计5月份将创造约674,000个就业岗位，而4月份新增就业岗位远低于预期的266,000个。</blockquote></p><p>Zoom Video Communications&nbsp;and&nbsp;Hewlett Packard Enterprise&nbsp;are set to report quarterly earnings results on Tuesday after the bell.</p><p><blockquote>Zoom Video通信公司和慧与公司将于周二盘后公布季度盈利结果。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dow pops 270 points as June begins, S&P 500 nears record high<blockquote>6月初道琼斯指数上涨270点，标普500接近历史新高</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDow pops 270 points as June begins, S&P 500 nears record high<blockquote>6月初道琼斯指数上涨270点，标普500接近历史新高</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-01 21:32</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S. stocks climbed on Tuesday as enthusiasm about the economic reopening lifted the S&amp;P 500 to near a record.</p><p><blockquote>美国股市周二攀升，因对经济重新开放的热情将标普500推升至接近纪录水平。</blockquote></p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 270 points, or 0.8%. The S&amp;P 500 gained 0.7%, putting the benchmark close to its record. On Friday, the S&amp;P 500 closed just 0.8% away from an all-time high.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数上涨270点，涨幅0.8%。标普500上涨0.7%，基准指数接近历史新高。周五，标普500收盘距离历史高点仅0.8%。</blockquote></p><p>The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.6%.</p><p><blockquote>纳斯达克综合指数上涨0.6%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a53d549679bed409628ad4412f7ac9d6\" tg-width=\"1047\" tg-height=\"476\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>The gains came as Covid cases continue to decline in the U.S. as vaccination rates rise. In a major milestone, more than half the U.S. population has received at least one dose of a Covid vaccination, according to CDC data posted Sunday. More than 62% of adults have received at leased one dose, the CDC said. There were just 12,663 new cases on Saturday, according to the CDC, the lowest since March 2020.</p><p><blockquote>随着疫苗接种率的上升，美国的新冠病例持续下降。根据CDC周日发布的数据，超过一半的美国人口至少接种了一剂新冠疫苗，这是一个重要的里程碑。CDC表示，超过62%的成年人至少接种了一剂疫苗。根据疾病预防控制中心的数据，周六新增病例仅12,663例，为2020年3月以来的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p>Stocks linked to a reopening economy led the gains in the premarket. Share of Carnival Corp and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings jumped more than 2% apiece. American Airlines and United airlines gained more than 1.5% each.</p><p><blockquote>与经济重新开放相关的股票在盘前领涨。嘉年华公司和挪威邮轮控股公司的股价分别上涨了2%以上。美国航空和联合航空涨幅均超过1.5%。</blockquote></p><p>Boeing gained 3.2% after one analyst&nbsp;recommended investors discount near-term hurdles&nbsp;for the aircraft maker and buy the stock while it's still below where it traded in early 2020.</p><p><blockquote>一位分析师建议投资者对这家飞机制造商的近期障碍进行折扣，并在该股仍低于2020年初的交易价格时买入该股，该公司股价上涨3.2%。</blockquote></p><p>Energy stocks gained as U.S. oil futures jumped nearly 3% to above $68 a barrel. Exxon, Chevron and Marathon Petroleum gained in premarket trading as the summer travel season kicked off.</p><p><blockquote>能源股上涨，美国石油期货上涨近3%，至每桶68美元上方。随着夏季旅游旺季的开始，埃克森美孚、雪佛龙和马拉松石油公司在盘前交易中上涨。</blockquote></p><p>Meme stock AMC Entertainment&nbsp;was jumping again&nbsp;after selling $230.5 million in new stock to an investor. The shares were up 14% after doubling last week.</p><p><blockquote>在向投资者出售2.305亿美元的新股后，Meme股票AMC院线再次上涨。该股继上周翻倍后上涨14%。</blockquote></p><p>The moves in overnight trading come after the blue-chip Dow and the S&amp;P 500 gained 1.93% and 0.55% in May, respectively, to mark their fourth consecutive positive month. The small-cap Russell 2000 rose 0.11% in May to post its eighth positive month in a row — its longest monthly win streak since 1995.</p><p><blockquote>在隔夜交易中，蓝筹股道琼斯指数和标普500指数在5月份分别上涨1.93%和0.55%，连续第四个月上涨。小盘股罗素2000指数5月份上涨0.11%，连续第八个月上涨，这是自1995年以来最长的月度连涨。</blockquote></p><p>The Nasdaq gained 2.06% last week to post its best weekly performance since April. However, the tech-heavy composite lost 1.53% in May, breaking a 6-month win streak.</p><p><blockquote>纳斯达克上周上涨2.06%，创下4月份以来的最佳单周表现。然而，以科技股为主的综合指数5月份下跌1.53%，打破了6个月的连涨势头。</blockquote></p><p>The stock market was closed Monday for Memorial Day.</p><p><blockquote>股市周一因阵亡将士纪念日休市。</blockquote></p><p>A key inflation gauge — the core personal consumption expenditures index —&nbsp;rose 3.1% in April from a year earlier,&nbsp;faster than the forecasted 2.9% increase. Despite the hotter-than-expected inflation data,treasury yields fell on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>一个关键的通胀指标——核心个人消费支出指数——4月份同比上涨3.1%，快于预期的2.9%。尽管通胀数据高于预期，但美国国债收益率周五仍下跌。</blockquote></p><p>“Overall, given the market’s reaction to [Friday]’s PCE release, investor concerns about inflation may have been exaggerated — or perhaps already priced in,” Chris Hussey, a managing director at&nbsp;Goldman Sachs, said in a note.</p><p><blockquote>高盛董事总经理克里斯·赫西(Chris Hussey)在一份报告中表示：“总体而言，鉴于市场对[周五]PCE发布的反应，投资者对通胀的担忧可能被夸大了，或者可能已经被消化了。”</blockquote></p><p>“Consensus may be building that the inflation we are seeing today is ‘good’ inflation — the kind of rise in prices that accompanies accelerating growth, not a monetary policy mistake,” Hussey said.</p><p><blockquote>赫西表示：“人们可能正在形成共识，即我们今天看到的通胀是‘好’通胀——伴随着增长加速的价格上涨，而不是货币政策错误。”</blockquote></p><p>Investors are awaiting the Federal Reserve’s meeting scheduled for June 15-16. Key for the markets is whether the Fed begins to believe that inflation is higher than it expected or that the economy is strengthening enough to progress without so much monetary support.</p><p><blockquote>投资者正在等待美联储定于6月15日至16日举行的会议。市场的关键是美联储是否开始相信通胀高于预期，或者经济正在走强到足以在没有如此多货币支持的情况下取得进展。</blockquote></p><p>May’s employment report, set to be released on Friday, will provide a key reading of the economy. According to Dow Jones, economists expect to see about 674,000 jobs created in May, after the much&nbsp;fewer-than-expected 266,000 jobs&nbsp;added in April.</p><p><blockquote>定于周五发布的5月份就业报告将提供经济的关键数据。根据道琼斯的数据，经济学家预计5月份将创造约674,000个就业岗位，而4月份新增就业岗位远低于预期的266,000个。</blockquote></p><p>Zoom Video Communications&nbsp;and&nbsp;Hewlett Packard Enterprise&nbsp;are set to report quarterly earnings results on Tuesday after the bell.</p><p><blockquote>Zoom Video通信公司和慧与公司将于周二盘后公布季度盈利结果。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117557808","content_text":"U.S. stocks climbed on Tuesday as enthusiasm about the economic reopening lifted the S&P 500 to near a record.The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 270 points, or 0.8%. The S&P 500 gained 0.7%, putting the benchmark close to its record. On Friday, the S&P 500 closed just 0.8% away from an all-time high.The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.6%.The gains came as Covid cases continue to decline in the U.S. as vaccination rates rise. In a major milestone, more than half the U.S. population has received at least one dose of a Covid vaccination, according to CDC data posted Sunday. More than 62% of adults have received at leased one dose, the CDC said. There were just 12,663 new cases on Saturday, according to the CDC, the lowest since March 2020.Stocks linked to a reopening economy led the gains in the premarket. Share of Carnival Corp and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings jumped more than 2% apiece. American Airlines and United airlines gained more than 1.5% each.Boeing gained 3.2% after one analyst recommended investors discount near-term hurdles for the aircraft maker and buy the stock while it's still below where it traded in early 2020.Energy stocks gained as U.S. oil futures jumped nearly 3% to above $68 a barrel. Exxon, Chevron and Marathon Petroleum gained in premarket trading as the summer travel season kicked off.Meme stock AMC Entertainment was jumping again after selling $230.5 million in new stock to an investor. The shares were up 14% after doubling last week.The moves in overnight trading come after the blue-chip Dow and the S&P 500 gained 1.93% and 0.55% in May, respectively, to mark their fourth consecutive positive month. The small-cap Russell 2000 rose 0.11% in May to post its eighth positive month in a row — its longest monthly win streak since 1995.The Nasdaq gained 2.06% last week to post its best weekly performance since April. However, the tech-heavy composite lost 1.53% in May, breaking a 6-month win streak.The stock market was closed Monday for Memorial Day.A key inflation gauge — the core personal consumption expenditures index — rose 3.1% in April from a year earlier, faster than the forecasted 2.9% increase. Despite the hotter-than-expected inflation data,treasury yields fell on Friday.“Overall, given the market’s reaction to [Friday]’s PCE release, investor concerns about inflation may have been exaggerated — or perhaps already priced in,” Chris Hussey, a managing director at Goldman Sachs, said in a note.“Consensus may be building that the inflation we are seeing today is ‘good’ inflation — the kind of rise in prices that accompanies accelerating growth, not a monetary policy mistake,” Hussey said.Investors are awaiting the Federal Reserve’s meeting scheduled for June 15-16. Key for the markets is whether the Fed begins to believe that inflation is higher than it expected or that the economy is strengthening enough to progress without so much monetary support.May’s employment report, set to be released on Friday, will provide a key reading of the economy. According to Dow Jones, economists expect to see about 674,000 jobs created in May, after the much fewer-than-expected 266,000 jobs added in April.Zoom Video Communications and Hewlett Packard Enterprise are set to report quarterly earnings results on Tuesday after the bell.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2307,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":690617642,"gmtCreate":1639663500663,"gmtModify":1639663500714,"author":{"id":"3582499726363900","authorId":"3582499726363900","name":"owlee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582499726363900","authorIdStr":"3582499726363900"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690617642","repostId":"1191683541","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191683541","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639658241,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191683541?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-16 20:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"10 Biggest Price Target Changes For Thursday<blockquote>周四10个最大价格目标变化</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191683541","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Stifel cut the price target on Under Armour, Inc.. from $30 to $24. Under Armour shares fell 0.7% to $22.22 in pre-market trading.RBC Capital lowered the price target on Airbnb, Inc. from $195 to $175. Airbnb shares rose 0.3% to $168.62 in pre-market trading.Morgan Stanley lowered DocuSign, Inc. price target from $350 to $165. DocuSign shares dropped 2.4% to $147.51 in pre-market trading.Barclays cut the price target on Aptiv PLC from $212 to $200. Aptiv shares rose 2.7% to $168.91 in pre-market","content":"<p><div> Stifel cut the price target on Under Armour, Inc..(NYSE:UAA) from $30 to $24. Under Armour shares fell 0.7% to $22.22 in pre-market trading. RBC Capital lowered the price target on Airbnb, Inc.(NASDAQ...</p><p><blockquote><div>Stifel将Under Armour，Inc.（纽约证券交易所代码：UAA）的目标价从30美元下调至24美元。Under Armour股价在盘前交易中下跌0.7%，至22.22美元。加拿大皇家银行资本下调了Airbnb，Inc.（纳斯达克...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/price-target/21/12/24641061/10-biggest-price-target-changes-for-thursday\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/price-target/21/12/24641061/10-biggest-price-target-changes-for-thursday\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>10 Biggest Price Target Changes For Thursday<blockquote>周四10个最大价格目标变化</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n10 Biggest Price Target Changes For Thursday<blockquote>周四10个最大价格目标变化</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Benzinga</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-16 20:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Stifel cut the price target on Under Armour, Inc..(NYSE:UAA) from $30 to $24. Under Armour shares fell 0.7% to $22.22 in pre-market trading. RBC Capital lowered the price target on Airbnb, Inc.(NASDAQ...</p><p><blockquote><div>Stifel将Under Armour，Inc.（纽约证券交易所代码：UAA）的目标价从30美元下调至24美元。Under Armour股价在盘前交易中下跌0.7%，至22.22美元。加拿大皇家银行资本下调了Airbnb，Inc.（纳斯达克...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/price-target/21/12/24641061/10-biggest-price-target-changes-for-thursday\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/price-target/21/12/24641061/10-biggest-price-target-changes-for-thursday\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/price-target/21/12/24641061/10-biggest-price-target-changes-for-thursday\">Benzinga</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ABNB":"爱彼迎","T":"At&T","DOCU":"Docusign"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/price-target/21/12/24641061/10-biggest-price-target-changes-for-thursday","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191683541","content_text":"Stifel cut the price target on Under Armour, Inc..(NYSE:UAA) from $30 to $24. Under Armour shares fell 0.7% to $22.22 in pre-market trading.\nRBC Capital lowered the price target on Airbnb, Inc.(NASDAQ:ABNB) from $195 to $175. Airbnb shares rose 0.3% to $168.62 in pre-market trading.\nMorgan Stanley cut AT&T Inc.(NYSE:T) price target from $32 to $28. AT&T shares rose 1.7% to $22.55 in pre-market trading.\nMorgan Stanley lowered DocuSign, Inc.(NASDAQ:DOCU) price target from $350 to $165. DocuSign shares dropped 2.4% to $147.51 in pre-market trading.\nBarclays cut the price target on Aptiv PLC(NYSE:APTV) from $212 to $200. Aptiv shares rose 2.7% to $168.91 in pre-market trading.\nRaymond James raised The Progressive Corporation(NYSE:PGR) price target from $105 to $110. Progressive shares rose 4.8% to close at $101.81 on Wednesday.\nWells Fargo boosted the price target for Magna International Inc.(NYSE:MGA) from $84 to $93. Magna International shares rose 1.7% to $79.04 in pre-market trading.\nB of A Securities reduced the price target for Wayfair Inc.(NYSE:W) from $265 to $175. Wayfair shares dropped 2.4% to $202.28 in pre-market trading.\nHC Wainwright & Co. cut IGM Biosciences, Inc.(NASDAQ:IGMS) price target from $114 to $76. IGM Biosciences shares fell 0.1% to close at $28.35 on Wednesday.\nNeedham cut Medtronic plc(NYSE:MDT) price target from $145 to $131. Medtronic shares rose 0.1% to $105.01 in pre-market trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"T":0.9,"ABNB":0.9,"DOCU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1851,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":162886153,"gmtCreate":1624056897172,"gmtModify":1634023557100,"author":{"id":"3582499726363900","authorId":"3582499726363900","name":"owlee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582499726363900","authorIdStr":"3582499726363900"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting&nbsp;","listText":"Interesting&nbsp;","text":"Interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162886153","repostId":"1168762020","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1168762020","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623988654,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1168762020?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 11:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"ASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential<blockquote>ASML：市场可能低估了其潜力</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168762020","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.\nDUV lithogra","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.</li>  <li>DUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 12% through 2027.</li>  <li>ASML holds a monopoly within EUV and faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms absolutely vital for the semiconductor manufacturing process.</li>  <li>A true innovator, ASML commands an outstanding position and growth outlook but the stock market has long since recognized the potential.</li>  <li>Existing shareholders do well for themselves in just enjoying the ride, but there is little margin of safety left for prospective shareholders who might dip their toes into the water through dollar-cost averaging to benefit from the strong tailwinds powering ASML.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44b5f81c309842f14fe1adffe3d6c9ca\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"432\"><span>MACRO PHOTO/iStock via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>预计到2028年，半导体行业的复合年增长率将达到8.6%。</li><li>预计到2025年，DUV光刻将以8.4%的CAGR增长，而EUV光刻预计到2027年将以12%的CAGR增长。</li><li>ASML在EUV领域占据垄断地位，在DUV领域面临非常有限的竞争，这两个平台对半导体制造工艺绝对至关重要。</li><li>作为真正的创新者，ASML拥有出色的地位和增长前景，但股市早已认识到其潜力。</li><li>现有股东在享受这一旅程方面做得很好，但对于潜在股东来说，几乎没有安全边际，他们可能会通过平均成本法涉足水，以从推动ASML的强劲顺风中受益。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>宏观照片/iStock来自Getty Images投资论文</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ASML Holding (ASML) commands a market position like no one else with not a competitor in sight for its most advanced technological platform, EUV lithography. Similarly, it faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms vital for semiconductor manufacturing. The household names within the semiconductor industry belong to the manufacturers, but the machinery providers, such as ASML, command very strong moats through extensive technological knowledge and strong process knowledge leaving all potential competitors years behind if they should ever try to compete.</p><p><blockquote>ASML Holding(ASML)在其最先进的技术平台EUV光刻方面拥有无与伦比的市场地位，看不到竞争对手。同样，它在DUV内部面临的竞争非常有限，这两个平台对半导体制造都至关重要。半导体行业内家喻户晓的品牌属于制造商，但ASML等机械供应商通过广泛的技术知识和强大的工艺知识拥有非常强大的护城河，如果所有潜在竞争对手试图竞争，他们将落后数年。</blockquote></p><p> It's hard to think of a better competitive situation, especially when operating in a sector forecasted to grow well above general GDP for many years to come. However, the market has long since recognized ASML's outstanding potential and potential journey, but still, it could be underestimating the potential.</p><p><blockquote>很难想象有比这更好的竞争形势了，尤其是在一个预计未来许多年增长将远高于总体GDP的行业运营时。然而，市场早已认识到ASML的突出潜力和潜力之旅，但它仍然可能低估了潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> I recently wrote an article concerning how youcan’t own too much semiconductor exposure. Having decomposed the value chain for semiconductor manufacturing, I received a number of questions concerning ASML in the comment sections and decided to conduct this follow-up. I’ve selected ASML due to its unique marketplace position and potential.</p><p><blockquote>我最近写了一篇关于如何不要拥有太多半导体敞口的文章。在分解了半导体制造的价值链后，我在评论区收到了许多关于ASML的问题，并决定进行跟进。我选择ASML是因为其独特的市场地位和潜力。</blockquote></p><p> Personally I have exposure to the manufacturing level of the semiconductor value chain through shares in both Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), but venturing further back into the value chain, and investors can be allowed to invest in a broader manner into the industry, as the suppliers of machinery and software obtain a broader exposure to most of the manufacturers making it immensely interesting as you can adopt the mantra of “I don’t really mind who wins, as long as they are racing”. As such, potential exposure upstream in the value chain carries great interest.</p><p><blockquote>就我个人而言，我通过持有德州仪器(TXN)和博通公司(AVGO)的股票接触到了半导体价值链的制造水平，但进一步深入价值链，投资者可以被允许以更广泛的方式投资该行业，因为机械和软件供应商可以更广泛地接触大多数制造商，这使得它非常有趣，因为你可以采用“我真的不介意谁赢，只要他们在比赛”的口号。因此，价值链上游的潜在风险引起了极大的兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Marketplace and Value Drivers For Years To Come</b></p><p><blockquote><b>未来几年的市场和价值驱动因素</b></blockquote></p><p> For ASML followers it’s no surprise at this point, but ASML is dominant within the product offering that will drive its revenue for the coming decade, EUV (Extreme ultraviolet lithography) technology. My personal take is that it is hard to find a company in a similarly advantageous competitive position anywhere in any industry. ASML provides equipment for lithography, the art of printing the chip features via light sources, in several light spectrums with its most advanced being EUV which is the next-gen to DUV (deep ultraviolet lithography). For DUV there are competitors albeit ASML has a massive market share above 85%. The difference between DUV and EUV is that EUV operates at a light wavelength almost 15 times smaller than DUV (13.5nm compared to 193nm).</p><p><blockquote>对于ASML的追随者来说，这一点并不奇怪，但ASML在将推动其未来十年收入的产品中占据主导地位，即EUV（极紫外光刻）技术。我个人的看法是，在任何行业的任何地方都很难找到一家处于类似优势竞争地位的公司。ASML提供光刻设备，这是一种通过光源打印芯片特征的艺术，有多种光谱，其中最先进的是EUV，这是DUV（深紫外光刻）的下一代。对于DUV来说，尽管ASML拥有超过85%的巨大市场份额，但仍有竞争对手。DUV和EUV之间的区别在于，EUV的工作波长几乎比DUV小15倍（13.5 nm与193nm相比）。</blockquote></p><p> Actually, the semiconductor manufacturers for the leading edge chips such as 5nm and soon to be 3nm are deeply dependent on the EUV machinery. Without it, it simply wouldn’t be possible. That sounds like a pretty good bargain for those who can manufacture these machines, but there is only one company that is able to do it, and that is ASML. For every generation of new EUV machinery, its yield becomes better with higher throughput and reduced downtime issues, meaning that ASML is effectively lightyears ahead of anyone who would try to pick up the gauntlet and challenge their dominant position.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，5nm和即将到来的3nm等前沿芯片的半导体制造商非常依赖EUV机器。没有它，这根本不可能。对于那些能够制造这些机器的人来说，这听起来很划算，但只有一家公司能够做到这一点，那就是ASML。对于每一代新的EUV机器，其产量都会变得更好，吞吐量更高，停机问题也会减少，这意味着ASML实际上领先于任何试图接受挑战并挑战其主导地位的人。</blockquote></p><p> This is an industry where everything is about process knowledge. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is able to produce 5nm chips because it was able to produce 7nm, and it will be able to produce 3nm because it can produce 5nm and has done that a million times over which is also why it was so detrimental to Intel Corp (INTC) that it had to acknowledge its persistent issues with the 7nm technology.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个一切都与流程知识有关的行业。台积电(TSM)能够生产5纳米芯片，因为它能够生产7纳米芯片，它将能够生产3纳米芯片，因为它可以生产5纳米芯片，并且已经这样做了一百万次，这也是为什么它对英特尔公司如此有害。(INTC)不得不承认其在7纳米技术方面持续存在的问题。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Quite simply, there is no 3nm if you can’t do the 5nm, as also discussed in my previous article. Same goes for ASML as a competitor would be years and years behind ASML if they entered the EUV space as they would struggle with the same issues that have plagued ASML in its early days of EUV more than a decade ago. I’ve included a number of illustrations from their most recent investor day which took place in November 2018, with the next one to take place in September 2021.</p><p><blockquote>很简单，如果你做不到5纳米，就没有3纳米，我在上一篇文章中也讨论过。ASML也是如此，因为如果竞争对手进入EUV领域，他们将落后ASML很多年，因为他们将面临十多年前困扰ASML的EUV早期的相同问题。我附上了他们最近一次投资者日的一些插图，这次投资者日发生在2018年11月，下一次投资者日将于2021年9月举行。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edaa6b5a77f99726bbae61b032b9c208\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 6.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。6.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The picture above clearly illustrates the process knowledge having been picked up by ASML throughout its EUV lifetime. This has also translated into better EUV machinery for each new generation as also evident by its productivity improvements. Again, I can’t imagine a more favourable competitive situation for a company, given how much time and capital it would require for a competitor to adopt the EUV technology.</p><p><blockquote>上图清楚地说明了ASML在其EUV生命周期中获得的工艺知识。这也转化为每一代更好的EUV机器，其生产率的提高也证明了这一点。同样，考虑到竞争对手采用EUV技术需要多少时间和资金，我无法想象对一家公司来说还有比这更有利的竞争形势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85913766aea721e218e976e4f73349e5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 16.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。16.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Semiconductor manufacturing is a cutthroat business with heavy R&amp;D spend (it took ASML €6 billion in R&amp;D spend to invent EUV) driving chip improvements according to Moore’s law, meaning that ASML is already working on the next-gen technology, referred to as High NA-EUV. High NA-EUV is still some time away, with the timeline below being slightly outdated, but its technology will significantly improve the EUV platform and power the industry beyond this decade. It takes time to develop the technology, improve yield and reduce downtime, but there is still plenty of opportunities for EUV in terms of marketplace expansion and margin improvement.</p><p><blockquote>半导体制造是一项残酷的业务，根据摩尔定律，大量的研发支出（ASML花费了60亿欧元的研发支出来发明EUV）推动芯片改进，这意味着ASML已经在研究下一代技术，称为高NA-EUV。高NA-EUV还有一段时间，下面的时间表略显过时，但其技术将显着改善EUV平台，并在本十年后为行业提供动力。开发技术、提高产量和减少停机时间需要时间，但EUV在市场扩张和利润率提高方面仍有大量机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7709f0f76b1619a31b32fc3330134005\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 21.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。21.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ASML itself has laid out the expected path in terms of optimised margins through both add-ons facing the buyer side and upstream cost reductions facing their suppliers creating a sweet spot for the company effectively striving to achieve the same profitability profile as for its more mature DUV platform.</p><p><blockquote>ASML本身已经通过面向买方的附加产品和面向供应商的上游成本降低，在优化利润率方面制定了预期路径，为公司创造了一个最佳点，有效地努力实现与其更成熟的DUV平台相同的盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/809661531ad423f613fb44c26e0b3352\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 25.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。25.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If that wasn’t good enough, then add the fact that the semiconductor industry in general is expected to outpace general GDP for at least until 2028 with a CAGR of 8.6%. Recentcommunicationsby Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel and Samsung Electronics Company (OTC:SSNLF) shows the strength and growth potential for the sector with their combined CAPEX expectations going beyond $200 billion for the coming decade, with a significant chunk of that within the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>如果这还不够好，那么再加上这样一个事实，即半导体行业总体预计至少在2028年之前将超过总体GDP，复合年增长率为8.6%。台积电、英特尔和三星电子公司（场外交易代码：SSNLF）最近的通讯显示了该行业的实力和增长潜力，他们预计未来十年的总资本支出将超过2000亿美元，其中很大一部分将在未来几年内实现。</blockquote></p><p> As can be seen in the illustration above, ASML expects increased customer value through upgrades, with their roadmap for DUV serving as an example in terms of how the revenue base could expand over the coming years for EUV as is the case for DUV via what the company has labelled installed base management.</p><p><blockquote>从上图中可以看出，ASML希望通过升级来增加客户价值，他们的DUV路线图可以作为一个例子，说明EUV的收入基础如何在未来几年扩大，就像DUV的情况一样。该公司已标记为安装基础管理。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8ef7940a4b888c50159e5b9db4c0634\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, DUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 10.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，DUV产品和商机，第14页。10.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> There is of course always the possibility of a serious contender entering the marketplace in order to try and challenge ASML, but companies have tried to enter the space when the technology was in its infancy having given up, meaning the prime threat would be the emergence of a new lithography technology arriving and doing to EUV what EUV did to DUV. Possible sure, likely, not so much. Just to hammer down the point, I’ve inserted a paragraph from ASML’s own description of how lithography plays its role.</p><p><blockquote>当然，总有可能有一个强有力的竞争者进入市场，试图挑战ASML，但公司在该技术处于起步阶段时就试图进入该领域，但已经放弃了，这意味着主要威胁将是一种新的光刻技术的出现，对EUV的影响就像EUV对DUV所做的那样。可能当然，很可能，没那么多。为了强调这一点，我插入了ASML自己对光刻如何发挥作用的描述中的一段话。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   “  <i>Lithography is a driving force in the creation of more powerful, faster and cheaper chips. The manufacturing of chips becomes increasingly complex as semiconductor feature sizes shrink, while the imperative to mass produce at the right cost remains. Our holistic lithography product portfolio helps to optimize production and enable affordable shrink by integrating lithography systems with computational modeling, as well as metrology and inspection solutions. A lithography system is essentially a projection system. Light is projected through a blueprint of the pattern that will be printed (known as a ‘mask’ or ‘reticle’). With the pattern encoded in the light, the system’s optics shrink and focus the pattern onto a photosensitive silicon wafer. After the pattern is printed, the system moves the wafer slightly and makes another copy on the wafer. This process is repeated until the wafer is covered in patterns, completing one layer of the wafer’s chips. To make an entire microchip, this process is repeated layer after layer, stacking the patterns to create an integrated circuit (IC). The simplest chips have around 10 layers, while the most complex can have over 150 layers. The size of the features to be printed varies depending on the layer, which means that different types of lithography systems are used for different layers – our latest-generation EUV systems for the most critical layers with the smallest features to ArF, KrF, and i-line DUV systems for less critical layers with larger features.</i>”  <i>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</i>  <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa32572971943844c4e71ddfc77559d6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"547\"><span>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</span></p><p><blockquote>“<i>光刻技术是制造更强大、更快、更便宜芯片的驱动力。随着半导体特征尺寸的缩小，芯片的制造变得越来越复杂，而以合适的成本大规模生产的必要性仍然存在。我们的整体光刻产品组合通过将光刻系统与计算建模以及计量和检测解决方案集成，有助于优化生产并实现可承受的收缩。光刻系统本质上是投影系统。光通过将被打印的图案的蓝图(称为“掩模”或“掩模”)投射。随着图案被编码在光中，系统的光学器件收缩并将图案聚焦到光敏硅晶片上。在打印图案之后，系统稍微移动晶片并在晶片上进行另一次复制。重复该过程，直到晶片被图案覆盖，完成晶片的一层芯片。为了制造整个微芯片，该过程一层又一层地重复，堆叠图案以创建集成电路(IC)。最简单的芯片大约有10层，而最复杂的芯片可以有超过150层。要打印的特征尺寸因层而异，这意味着不同类型的光刻系统用于不同的层——我们最新一代的EUV系统用于具有最小特征的最关键层，而ArF、KrF和i-line DUV系统用于具有较大特征的不太关键层。</i>”<i>ASML 2020年年度报告，光刻的作用，第14页。12.</i><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2020年年度报告，光刻的作用，第14页。12.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I believe most investors are familiar with confirmation bias, and if they aren’t, they should grab a book and educate themselves. Having read through this section, it can easily sound as if I as the author is suffering from confirmation bias given how strongly I’ve advocated for ASML’s position and competitive power. However, I’ve striven towards identifying situations that could severely impact ASML and being honest I can’t find it. There are of course the risks associated with geopolitical tension, which also showed itself in the stock price back in 2016, the risk of supply chain disruption as is currently transpiring across the industry and competition for talent. These are touched upon by the company itself in their annual report 2020 p. 21 and no industry comes without potential risks.</p><p><blockquote>我相信大多数投资者都熟悉确认偏差，如果他们不熟悉，他们应该拿本书自学。通读这一部分后，考虑到我对ASML的地位和竞争力的强烈支持，我作为作者很容易受到确认偏见的困扰。然而，我一直在努力找出可能严重影响ASML的情况，老实说，我找不到。当然，也存在与地缘政治紧张局势相关的风险，这在2016年的股价中也有所体现，目前整个行业正在发生的供应链中断的风险以及人才竞争。该公司自己在其2020年年度报告第21页中提到了这些问题，没有一个行业没有潜在风险。</blockquote></p><p> So, to sum it all up:</p><p><blockquote>所以，总结一下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>ASML has pioneered EUV lithography, with no competitors in sight</li>  <li>EUV will enable the continuation of Moore’s Law and will drive long term value for ASML and its customers well into this decade</li>  <li>The semiconductor sector forecasted to grow at CAGR of 8.6% through 2028, outpacing general GDP with ASML being a key supplier to the manufacturers (foundries)</li>  <li>Strong industry CAPEX driving demand for ASML offerings</li>  <li>The path forward for expanding EUV business in terms of installed base management, margins improvement and manufacturer dependency on EUV machinery for leading edge chips</li>  <li>ASML is a crucial player for leading edge chip manufacturing</li> </ul> Sounds pretty good to me.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>ASML开创了EUV光刻，看不到竞争对手</li><li>EUV将使摩尔定律得以延续，并将在本十年为ASML及其客户带来长期价值</li><li>预计到2028年，半导体行业的复合年增长率将达到8.6%，超过总体GDP，ASML是制造商（代工厂）的主要供应商</li><li>强劲的行业资本支出推动了对ASML产品的需求</li><li>在装机基础管理、利润率提高以及制造商对领先芯片的EUV机械的依赖方面扩大EUV业务的前进道路</li><li>ASML是领先芯片制造的关键参与者</li></ul>对我来说听起来不错。</blockquote></p><p> The Financial Performance and Development</p><p><blockquote>财务表现及发展</blockquote></p><p> ASML is doing well for itself as evident by the illustration below.</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，ASML自身表现良好。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Strong revenue growth</li>  <li>Strong margin expansion</li>  <li>Strong improvement in free cash flow</li>  <li>Impressive operational improvements strengthening its moat through increased R&amp;D spend and IP portfolio</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7900753b1857ac9ad6fc705b9baad563\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"414\"><span>Annual Report 2020, p 7.</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>收入增长强劲</li><li>利润率强劲扩张</li><li>自由现金流强劲改善</li><li>令人印象深刻的运营改进通过增加研发支出和知识产权组合来加强其护城河</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2020年年度报告，第7页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This was followed by a strong Q1-2021 performance with mouth-watering financials on both top and bottom line. However, for their Q2-2021 performance they are guiding for slightly lower revenue expansion at €4.1 billion with a gross margin of 49%, which is still above the long term average but closer to it. There is however no denying that the company is thriving in the current environment.</p><p><blockquote>随后是2021年第一季度的强劲表现，营收和利润都令人垂涎。然而，对于2021年第二季度的业绩，他们预计收入扩张略低，为41亿欧元，毛利率为49%，仍高于长期平均水平，但更接近长期平均水平。然而，不可否认的是，该公司在当前环境下蓬勃发展。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60ea4dedde41a918bd9e1fd307a9531f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 14.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2021年第一季度，第14页。14.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> An interesting detail is the development within the installed base management as illustrated earlier in the article. The company is delivering on its promise with a strong development within this segment growing 29% YoY from 2019 to 2020, well beyond the total growth of 18%.</p><p><blockquote>一个有趣的细节是安装库管理中的开发，如本文前面所述。该公司正在兑现其承诺，该领域的强劲发展从2019年到2020年同比增长29%，远远超过18%的总增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6966dcaf747d226d5de580187d4d3ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 8.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2021年第一季度，第14页。8.</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The more interesting question however is whether the market estimates are underestimating the potential for ASML. An immensely hard question, but if we give it a look, I personally at least see the possibility of that being the case.</p><p><blockquote>然而，更有趣的问题是，市场估计是否低估了ASML的潜力。这是一个非常困难的问题，但如果我们看一看，我个人至少看到了这种可能性。</blockquote></p><p> Are Analyst Consensus Estimates Under- or Over-Estimating ASML’s Potential?</p><p><blockquote>分析师的一致估计是低估了还是高估了ASML的潜力？</blockquote></p><p> ASML is well-covered by analysts offering estimates all the way through 2028, but with coverage waning once we go beyond 2025 which is the last year covered by more than one analyst. The current estimates show a revenue CAGR development of 11.1% from 2020 to 2028, but if we remove 2021, which shows stellar growth, the CAGR is 6.5%.</p><p><blockquote>分析师对ASML的报道很好，他们提供了到2028年的预测，但一旦我们超过2025年，报道范围就会减弱，这是最后一年有超过一名分析师报道。目前的估计显示，从2020年到2028年，收入CAGR发展为11.1%，但如果我们去掉2021年的强劲增长，CAGR为6.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9adf4cebbce28dc7433186b5bd0827e8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Author's Own Creation, Source Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>作者自己的创作，来源寻求阿尔法。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Remember the sector as a whole is forecasted to exhibit growth at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028. These are all estimates which carry great uncertainty with no one able to reliably predict the future. However, it is worth noticing that revenue estimates for ASML are below the sector as a whole if the massive jump from 2020 to 2021 is left out of the equation. Average revenue growth from 2026 to 2028 is currently estimated to be 3.5%.</p><p><blockquote>请记住，预计到2028年，整个行业的复合年增长率将达到8.6%。这些都是带有很大不确定性的估计，没有人能够可靠地预测未来。然而，值得注意的是，如果不考虑2020年至2021年的大幅增长，ASML的收入预期将低于整个行业。目前预计2026年至2028年的平均收入增长率为3.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Considering some of the arguments in favour of why ASML’s outlook could be even more positive:</p><p><blockquote>考虑一些支持ASML前景可能更加积极的论点：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>General semiconductor industry CAGR 2020-2028 forecasted at 8.6%.</li>  <li>DUV CAGR 2020-2025forecastedat 8.4%, it is still ASML’s largest product category.</li>  <li>EUV CAGR 2020-2027forecastedat 12%.</li>  <li>ASML is a linchpin player to solve chip shortage through technology advancement and its machines define the performance of every electrical gadget we utilise in our daily lives.</li>  <li>ASML shows progress in its plan to widen the ecosystem for its machinery through \"Installed Base Management\" increasing the total addressable market by upwards of double digits percentage as 2018 sales were 20% installed base management and 2025 estimate is 50%.</li>  <li>ASML dominates the DUV immersion segment, the part of DUV with high margins as its two solecompetitorsin DUV, Nikon and Canon lack the means and capabilities.</li>  <li>As the market transitions to EUV, the demand for DUV willfollowas the chip stacking process benefits from both systems through its manufacturing.</li> </ul> This is without mentioning the potential price increases that could trickle down towards its customers as they could be fighting over ASML’s capacity due to its strong market position of 85% in DUV and monopoly within EUV while also bringing High NA-EUV to market by mid of this decade. Customers today pay roughly $130-150 million for EUV machines, while DUV machines come in at around $100 million. The largest hindrance to ASML overdelivering is its current capacity constraint in terms of ability to deliver EUV systems which is capped somewhere between 40 and 50 systems a year, with the company of course striving to expand that capacity constraint as demand builds up over the years. On the other hand, this could also be a driver for price increases as ASML strives to expand capacity.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>通用半导体行业CAGR 2020-2028年预测为8.6%。</li><li>DUV CAGR 2020-2025预测为8.4%，仍然是ASML最大的产品类别。</li><li>EUV CAGR 2020-2027年预测为12%。</li><li>ASML是通过技术进步解决芯片短缺的关键参与者，其机器定义了我们日常生活中使用的每一个电子设备的性能。</li><li>ASML在通过“安装基础管理”扩大其机械生态系统的计划方面取得了进展，使总目标市场增加了两位数以上的百分比，因为2018年的销售额占安装基础管理的20%，2025年的估计为50%。</li><li>ASML在DUV沉浸式细分市场占据主导地位，这是DUV利润率较高的部分，因为其在DUV的两个唯一竞争对手尼康和佳能缺乏手段和能力。</li><li>随着市场向EUV过渡，对DUV的需求将随之而来，因为芯片堆叠工艺通过其制造从这两种系统中受益。</li></ul>这还没有提到潜在的价格上涨可能会渗透到其客户身上，因为他们可能会争夺ASML的产能，因为ASML在DUV中占据85%的强大市场地位以及在EUV中的垄断地位，同时也在中期将高NA-EUV推向市场。这十年。如今，客户为EUV机器支付大约1.3-1.5亿美元，而DUV机器的价格约为1亿美元。ASML超额交付的最大障碍是其目前交付EUV系统的能力限制，每年交付EUV系统的能力限制在40到50个系统之间，随着多年来需求的增加，该公司当然会努力扩大这一能力限制。另一方面，随着ASML努力扩大产能，这也可能成为价格上涨的驱动力。</blockquote></p><p> I will not try to construct an even bolder revenue guidance as it’s a cheap shot and frankly, no one has the capacity to accurately forecast if the current expectations will stand or whether they are too positive or negative. I just want to highlight that with everything going on and ASML’s market position in mind, I don’t consider it unreasonable that the company will do even better than currently anticipated.</p><p><blockquote>我不会试图构建一个更大胆的收入指引，因为这是一个廉价的机会，坦率地说，没有人有能力准确预测当前的预期是否成立，或者它们是否过于积极或消极。我只想强调，考虑到正在发生的一切以及ASML的市场地位，我认为该公司的表现比目前预期的更好并不是不合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> The stock price is an inch away from its 52-week high and has been on a tear since the beginning of 2020, really taking off since October 2020 from which it has doubled since.</p><p><blockquote>该股价距离52周高点仅一英寸，自2020年初以来一直在上涨，自2020年10月以来真正起飞，此后已翻了一番。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/472c0e2f540c1d4ee2a7bbaec09379c0\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"453\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Market cap has exploded with all other parameters left in its wake having seen a significant expansion in price-earnings ratio despite a strong improvement in EPS and revenue. The stock market has long since recognised the story and potential of ASML with the Wall Street analyst target currently at $722 per share. Fair to say, there is no margin of safety if the analysts are correct in the predictions. Interestingly, out of the 30 analysts offering a price target, the percentage who are very bullish hasn’t been higher since 2016 with 56% stating a very bullish opinion. There is a mental exercise in staying cautious in terms of believing in such statements, not least because the stock has only known one direction for the last couple of years – upwards.</p><p><blockquote>尽管每股收益和收入强劲改善，但所有其他参数都出现了爆炸式增长，市盈率也大幅扩大。股市早已认识到ASML的故事和潜力，华尔街分析师目前的目标是每股722美元。公平地说，如果分析师的预测是正确的，就没有安全边际。有趣的是，在提供价格目标的30名分析师中，非常看涨的比例自2016年以来从未如此之高，其中56%的分析师表示非常看涨。在相信此类言论时保持谨慎是一种心理锻炼，尤其是因为该股在过去几年中只知道一个方向——向上。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The significance of the expansion in typical ratios is evident when considered over a five-year horizon as shown below. Both P/E and P/S have expanded massively standing at 55 and 15.7 respectively. However, the company is in a very different place compared to three years ago.</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，当考虑到五年的时间范围时，典型比率扩张的重要性是显而易见的。市盈率和市盈率均大幅上涨，分别为55和15.7。然而，与三年前相比，该公司的处境截然不同。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c691d4662a793b5de150add67a3a4e11\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Revenue is growing significantly faster than previously with gross margin and free cash flow also having improved. Due to this positive development, ASML is also returning plenty of capital to its shareholders with a share buyback program of €10 billion for 2021, which unfortunately only translates to a reduction of 0.5% of the current float.</p><p><blockquote>收入增长速度明显快于以前，毛利率和自由现金流也有所改善。由于这一积极的发展，ASML还通过2021年100亿欧元的股票回购计划向股东返还了大量资本，不幸的是，这仅相当于当前流通量减少了0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7341584d3ba7b1db51e1eef3c4bdaccd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The strong belief in ASML going forward is also clearly illustrated by the estimates for the coming years, which throughout the most recent years has been steadily climbing due to the company’s strong portfolio and market dominance.</p><p><blockquote>对ASML未来几年的预测也清楚地表明了人们对ASML未来的坚定信心，由于该公司强大的投资组合和市场主导地位，近年来该预测一直在稳步攀升。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b262aeeb8d75114dbc3e45bf9464c830\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With all that said, I believe that current shareholders do well for themselves in holding on to their existing shares as this company has a great outlook. I’ve had my eyes on ASML for the last year, and I’m extremely sad to say I never got around to looking into it properly, but only looked it at from afar and concluded that the stock might be due for a good pullback at one point. Little did I know.</p><p><blockquote>综上所述，我相信目前的股东在持有现有股份方面做得很好，因为这家公司前景广阔。去年我一直在关注ASML，我非常难过地说，我从未抽出时间仔细研究过它，只是从远处看了看，并得出结论，该股可能会出现良好的回调在某一点上。我一点也不知道。</blockquote></p><p> As Peter Lynch famously said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves,” as would also be true for someone like me who didn’t act in time. I’m still massively fascinated by ASML’s outlook and potential journey, but at the current price, I remain hesitant about the prospects and the lack of margin of safety.</p><p><blockquote>正如彼得·林奇（Peter Lynch）的名言，“投资者为调整做准备或试图预测调整而损失的资金远远多于调整本身损失的资金”，对于像我这样没有及时采取行动的人来说也是如此。我仍然对ASML的前景和潜在旅程非常着迷，但以目前的价格，我仍然对前景和缺乏安全边际犹豫不决。</blockquote></p><p> There is a lot of potential for ASML to grow into its valuation, and if one is to add that current levels, I’d say dollar-cost averaging is a prudent strategy for the current price, while reserving the possibility to back up the truck for a full load if we see a pullback before end of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>ASML的估值有很大的增长潜力，如果要加上当前的水平，我会说美元成本平均法对于当前价格来说是一种谨慎的策略，同时保留备份的可能性如果我们在2021年底之前看到回调，卡车将满载。</blockquote></p><p> As can be seen below, it is not uncommon for ASML to experience a 10% setback once or twice a year.</p><p><blockquote>从下面可以看出，ASML每年经历一两次10%的挫折并不罕见。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad90b51964870f5475b596fe16f63317\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> ASML is dominant within its two main offerings, the DUV and EUV lithography. Its market is backed by incredibly strong tailwinds as all our gadgets, electrical cars, 5G, datacentres, cloud servers, etc. are heavily reliant on the technology platform offered by ASML. A true innovator with no real competition in sight, feeding machinery and tools to an industry expected to grow at CAGR 8.6% through 2028 with potentially even stronger growth for both its DUV and EUV platforms while also expecting margin expansion.</p><p><blockquote>ASML在其两个主要产品DUV和EUV光刻中占据主导地位。它的市场得到了令人难以置信的强劲推动力的支持，因为我们所有的小工具、电动汽车、5G、数据中心、云服务器等。严重依赖ASML提供的技术平台。一家真正的创新者，看不到真正的竞争，为预计到2028年复合年增长率为8.6%的行业提供机械和工具，其DUV和EUV平台的增长可能会更强劲，同时预计利润率将扩大。</blockquote></p><p> There is little evil to be said about ASML, but unfortunately, the stock market has long since recognised its amazing story and potential. With such a strong outlook in sight, existing shareholders do well for themselves in holding onto their shares and just enjoy the journey ahead, but for the prospective shareholders, there appears to be a little margin of safety with the market cap having expanded significantly recently and the stock trading just an inch shy of its 52 week high.</p><p><blockquote>ASML没什么不好说的，但不幸的是，股市早已认识到其惊人的故事和潜力。在如此强劲的前景下，现有股东在持有股票并享受未来的旅程方面做得很好，但对于潜在股东来说，随着市值的大幅扩大，似乎还有一点安全边际。最近，该股的交易价格距离52周高点仅一英寸。</blockquote></p><p> As Peter Lynch said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” The exact fallacy I’ve fallen victim to as I’ve looked at ASML from afar for quite a while. Despite the recent expansion in market cap and multiples, there could be made a case for current estimates underestimating ASML’s true potential, but any forecast extending 5-10 years into the future comes with extreme uncertainty and guesstimation. As I’ve shown, ASML’s share price is prone to setbacks once or twice a year allowing dollar-cost averaging to serve as a method to acquire exposure to the company slowly building a position along the way.</p><p><blockquote>正如彼得·林奇（Peter Lynch）所说，“投资者准备调整或试图预测调整所损失的资金远远超过调整本身所损失的资金。”当我从远处看ASML很长一段时间时，我已经成为了这个谬论的受害者。尽管最近市值和市盈率有所扩大，但目前的估计可能低估了ASML的真正潜力，但任何延长到未来5-10年的预测都带有极大的不确定性和猜测。正如我所展示的，ASML的股价每年容易出现一到两次挫折，这使得平均成本法可以作为一种方法来获得该公司的风险敞口，并在此过程中慢慢建立头寸。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>ASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential<blockquote>ASML：市场可能低估了其潜力</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential<blockquote>ASML：市场可能低估了其潜力</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 11:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.</li>  <li>DUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 12% through 2027.</li>  <li>ASML holds a monopoly within EUV and faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms absolutely vital for the semiconductor manufacturing process.</li>  <li>A true innovator, ASML commands an outstanding position and growth outlook but the stock market has long since recognized the potential.</li>  <li>Existing shareholders do well for themselves in just enjoying the ride, but there is little margin of safety left for prospective shareholders who might dip their toes into the water through dollar-cost averaging to benefit from the strong tailwinds powering ASML.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44b5f81c309842f14fe1adffe3d6c9ca\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"432\"><span>MACRO PHOTO/iStock via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>预计到2028年，半导体行业的复合年增长率将达到8.6%。</li><li>预计到2025年，DUV光刻将以8.4%的CAGR增长，而EUV光刻预计到2027年将以12%的CAGR增长。</li><li>ASML在EUV领域占据垄断地位，在DUV领域面临非常有限的竞争，这两个平台对半导体制造工艺绝对至关重要。</li><li>作为真正的创新者，ASML拥有出色的地位和增长前景，但股市早已认识到其潜力。</li><li>现有股东在享受这一旅程方面做得很好，但对于潜在股东来说，几乎没有安全边际，他们可能会通过平均成本法涉足水，以从推动ASML的强劲顺风中受益。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>宏观照片/iStock来自Getty Images投资论文</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ASML Holding (ASML) commands a market position like no one else with not a competitor in sight for its most advanced technological platform, EUV lithography. Similarly, it faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms vital for semiconductor manufacturing. The household names within the semiconductor industry belong to the manufacturers, but the machinery providers, such as ASML, command very strong moats through extensive technological knowledge and strong process knowledge leaving all potential competitors years behind if they should ever try to compete.</p><p><blockquote>ASML Holding(ASML)在其最先进的技术平台EUV光刻方面拥有无与伦比的市场地位，看不到竞争对手。同样，它在DUV内部面临的竞争非常有限，这两个平台对半导体制造都至关重要。半导体行业内家喻户晓的品牌属于制造商，但ASML等机械供应商通过广泛的技术知识和强大的工艺知识拥有非常强大的护城河，如果所有潜在竞争对手试图竞争，他们将落后数年。</blockquote></p><p> It's hard to think of a better competitive situation, especially when operating in a sector forecasted to grow well above general GDP for many years to come. However, the market has long since recognized ASML's outstanding potential and potential journey, but still, it could be underestimating the potential.</p><p><blockquote>很难想象有比这更好的竞争形势了，尤其是在一个预计未来许多年增长将远高于总体GDP的行业运营时。然而，市场早已认识到ASML的突出潜力和潜力之旅，但它仍然可能低估了潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> I recently wrote an article concerning how youcan’t own too much semiconductor exposure. Having decomposed the value chain for semiconductor manufacturing, I received a number of questions concerning ASML in the comment sections and decided to conduct this follow-up. I’ve selected ASML due to its unique marketplace position and potential.</p><p><blockquote>我最近写了一篇关于如何不要拥有太多半导体敞口的文章。在分解了半导体制造的价值链后，我在评论区收到了许多关于ASML的问题，并决定进行跟进。我选择ASML是因为其独特的市场地位和潜力。</blockquote></p><p> Personally I have exposure to the manufacturing level of the semiconductor value chain through shares in both Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), but venturing further back into the value chain, and investors can be allowed to invest in a broader manner into the industry, as the suppliers of machinery and software obtain a broader exposure to most of the manufacturers making it immensely interesting as you can adopt the mantra of “I don’t really mind who wins, as long as they are racing”. As such, potential exposure upstream in the value chain carries great interest.</p><p><blockquote>就我个人而言，我通过持有德州仪器(TXN)和博通公司(AVGO)的股票接触到了半导体价值链的制造水平，但进一步深入价值链，投资者可以被允许以更广泛的方式投资该行业，因为机械和软件供应商可以更广泛地接触大多数制造商，这使得它非常有趣，因为你可以采用“我真的不介意谁赢，只要他们在比赛”的口号。因此，价值链上游的潜在风险引起了极大的兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Marketplace and Value Drivers For Years To Come</b></p><p><blockquote><b>未来几年的市场和价值驱动因素</b></blockquote></p><p> For ASML followers it’s no surprise at this point, but ASML is dominant within the product offering that will drive its revenue for the coming decade, EUV (Extreme ultraviolet lithography) technology. My personal take is that it is hard to find a company in a similarly advantageous competitive position anywhere in any industry. ASML provides equipment for lithography, the art of printing the chip features via light sources, in several light spectrums with its most advanced being EUV which is the next-gen to DUV (deep ultraviolet lithography). For DUV there are competitors albeit ASML has a massive market share above 85%. The difference between DUV and EUV is that EUV operates at a light wavelength almost 15 times smaller than DUV (13.5nm compared to 193nm).</p><p><blockquote>对于ASML的追随者来说，这一点并不奇怪，但ASML在将推动其未来十年收入的产品中占据主导地位，即EUV（极紫外光刻）技术。我个人的看法是，在任何行业的任何地方都很难找到一家处于类似优势竞争地位的公司。ASML提供光刻设备，这是一种通过光源打印芯片特征的艺术，有多种光谱，其中最先进的是EUV，这是DUV（深紫外光刻）的下一代。对于DUV来说，尽管ASML拥有超过85%的巨大市场份额，但仍有竞争对手。DUV和EUV之间的区别在于，EUV的工作波长几乎比DUV小15倍（13.5 nm与193nm相比）。</blockquote></p><p> Actually, the semiconductor manufacturers for the leading edge chips such as 5nm and soon to be 3nm are deeply dependent on the EUV machinery. Without it, it simply wouldn’t be possible. That sounds like a pretty good bargain for those who can manufacture these machines, but there is only one company that is able to do it, and that is ASML. For every generation of new EUV machinery, its yield becomes better with higher throughput and reduced downtime issues, meaning that ASML is effectively lightyears ahead of anyone who would try to pick up the gauntlet and challenge their dominant position.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，5nm和即将到来的3nm等前沿芯片的半导体制造商非常依赖EUV机器。没有它，这根本不可能。对于那些能够制造这些机器的人来说，这听起来很划算，但只有一家公司能够做到这一点，那就是ASML。对于每一代新的EUV机器，其产量都会变得更好，吞吐量更高，停机问题也会减少，这意味着ASML实际上领先于任何试图接受挑战并挑战其主导地位的人。</blockquote></p><p> This is an industry where everything is about process knowledge. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is able to produce 5nm chips because it was able to produce 7nm, and it will be able to produce 3nm because it can produce 5nm and has done that a million times over which is also why it was so detrimental to Intel Corp (INTC) that it had to acknowledge its persistent issues with the 7nm technology.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个一切都与流程知识有关的行业。台积电(TSM)能够生产5纳米芯片，因为它能够生产7纳米芯片，它将能够生产3纳米芯片，因为它可以生产5纳米芯片，并且已经这样做了一百万次，这也是为什么它对英特尔公司如此有害。(INTC)不得不承认其在7纳米技术方面持续存在的问题。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Quite simply, there is no 3nm if you can’t do the 5nm, as also discussed in my previous article. Same goes for ASML as a competitor would be years and years behind ASML if they entered the EUV space as they would struggle with the same issues that have plagued ASML in its early days of EUV more than a decade ago. I’ve included a number of illustrations from their most recent investor day which took place in November 2018, with the next one to take place in September 2021.</p><p><blockquote>很简单，如果你做不到5纳米，就没有3纳米，我在上一篇文章中也讨论过。ASML也是如此，因为如果竞争对手进入EUV领域，他们将落后ASML很多年，因为他们将面临十多年前困扰ASML的EUV早期的相同问题。我附上了他们最近一次投资者日的一些插图，这次投资者日发生在2018年11月，下一次投资者日将于2021年9月举行。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edaa6b5a77f99726bbae61b032b9c208\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 6.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。6.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The picture above clearly illustrates the process knowledge having been picked up by ASML throughout its EUV lifetime. This has also translated into better EUV machinery for each new generation as also evident by its productivity improvements. Again, I can’t imagine a more favourable competitive situation for a company, given how much time and capital it would require for a competitor to adopt the EUV technology.</p><p><blockquote>上图清楚地说明了ASML在其EUV生命周期中获得的工艺知识。这也转化为每一代更好的EUV机器，其生产率的提高也证明了这一点。同样，考虑到竞争对手采用EUV技术需要多少时间和资金，我无法想象对一家公司来说还有比这更有利的竞争形势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85913766aea721e218e976e4f73349e5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 16.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。16.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Semiconductor manufacturing is a cutthroat business with heavy R&amp;D spend (it took ASML €6 billion in R&amp;D spend to invent EUV) driving chip improvements according to Moore’s law, meaning that ASML is already working on the next-gen technology, referred to as High NA-EUV. High NA-EUV is still some time away, with the timeline below being slightly outdated, but its technology will significantly improve the EUV platform and power the industry beyond this decade. It takes time to develop the technology, improve yield and reduce downtime, but there is still plenty of opportunities for EUV in terms of marketplace expansion and margin improvement.</p><p><blockquote>半导体制造是一项残酷的业务，根据摩尔定律，大量的研发支出（ASML花费了60亿欧元的研发支出来发明EUV）推动芯片改进，这意味着ASML已经在研究下一代技术，称为高NA-EUV。高NA-EUV还有一段时间，下面的时间表略显过时，但其技术将显着改善EUV平台，并在本十年后为行业提供动力。开发技术、提高产量和减少停机时间需要时间，但EUV在市场扩张和利润率提高方面仍有大量机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7709f0f76b1619a31b32fc3330134005\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 21.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。21.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ASML itself has laid out the expected path in terms of optimised margins through both add-ons facing the buyer side and upstream cost reductions facing their suppliers creating a sweet spot for the company effectively striving to achieve the same profitability profile as for its more mature DUV platform.</p><p><blockquote>ASML本身已经通过面向买方的附加产品和面向供应商的上游成本降低，在优化利润率方面制定了预期路径，为公司创造了一个最佳点，有效地努力实现与其更成熟的DUV平台相同的盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/809661531ad423f613fb44c26e0b3352\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 25.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。25.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If that wasn’t good enough, then add the fact that the semiconductor industry in general is expected to outpace general GDP for at least until 2028 with a CAGR of 8.6%. Recentcommunicationsby Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel and Samsung Electronics Company (OTC:SSNLF) shows the strength and growth potential for the sector with their combined CAPEX expectations going beyond $200 billion for the coming decade, with a significant chunk of that within the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>如果这还不够好，那么再加上这样一个事实，即半导体行业总体预计至少在2028年之前将超过总体GDP，复合年增长率为8.6%。台积电、英特尔和三星电子公司（场外交易代码：SSNLF）最近的通讯显示了该行业的实力和增长潜力，他们预计未来十年的总资本支出将超过2000亿美元，其中很大一部分将在未来几年内实现。</blockquote></p><p> As can be seen in the illustration above, ASML expects increased customer value through upgrades, with their roadmap for DUV serving as an example in terms of how the revenue base could expand over the coming years for EUV as is the case for DUV via what the company has labelled installed base management.</p><p><blockquote>从上图中可以看出，ASML希望通过升级来增加客户价值，他们的DUV路线图可以作为一个例子，说明EUV的收入基础如何在未来几年扩大，就像DUV的情况一样。该公司已标记为安装基础管理。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8ef7940a4b888c50159e5b9db4c0634\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, DUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 10.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，DUV产品和商机，第14页。10.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> There is of course always the possibility of a serious contender entering the marketplace in order to try and challenge ASML, but companies have tried to enter the space when the technology was in its infancy having given up, meaning the prime threat would be the emergence of a new lithography technology arriving and doing to EUV what EUV did to DUV. Possible sure, likely, not so much. Just to hammer down the point, I’ve inserted a paragraph from ASML’s own description of how lithography plays its role.</p><p><blockquote>当然，总有可能有一个强有力的竞争者进入市场，试图挑战ASML，但公司在该技术处于起步阶段时就试图进入该领域，但已经放弃了，这意味着主要威胁将是一种新的光刻技术的出现，对EUV的影响就像EUV对DUV所做的那样。可能当然，很可能，没那么多。为了强调这一点，我插入了ASML自己对光刻如何发挥作用的描述中的一段话。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   “  <i>Lithography is a driving force in the creation of more powerful, faster and cheaper chips. The manufacturing of chips becomes increasingly complex as semiconductor feature sizes shrink, while the imperative to mass produce at the right cost remains. Our holistic lithography product portfolio helps to optimize production and enable affordable shrink by integrating lithography systems with computational modeling, as well as metrology and inspection solutions. A lithography system is essentially a projection system. Light is projected through a blueprint of the pattern that will be printed (known as a ‘mask’ or ‘reticle’). With the pattern encoded in the light, the system’s optics shrink and focus the pattern onto a photosensitive silicon wafer. After the pattern is printed, the system moves the wafer slightly and makes another copy on the wafer. This process is repeated until the wafer is covered in patterns, completing one layer of the wafer’s chips. To make an entire microchip, this process is repeated layer after layer, stacking the patterns to create an integrated circuit (IC). The simplest chips have around 10 layers, while the most complex can have over 150 layers. The size of the features to be printed varies depending on the layer, which means that different types of lithography systems are used for different layers – our latest-generation EUV systems for the most critical layers with the smallest features to ArF, KrF, and i-line DUV systems for less critical layers with larger features.</i>”  <i>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</i>  <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa32572971943844c4e71ddfc77559d6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"547\"><span>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</span></p><p><blockquote>“<i>光刻技术是制造更强大、更快、更便宜芯片的驱动力。随着半导体特征尺寸的缩小，芯片的制造变得越来越复杂，而以合适的成本大规模生产的必要性仍然存在。我们的整体光刻产品组合通过将光刻系统与计算建模以及计量和检测解决方案集成，有助于优化生产并实现可承受的收缩。光刻系统本质上是投影系统。光通过将被打印的图案的蓝图(称为“掩模”或“掩模”)投射。随着图案被编码在光中，系统的光学器件收缩并将图案聚焦到光敏硅晶片上。在打印图案之后，系统稍微移动晶片并在晶片上进行另一次复制。重复该过程，直到晶片被图案覆盖，完成晶片的一层芯片。为了制造整个微芯片，该过程一层又一层地重复，堆叠图案以创建集成电路(IC)。最简单的芯片大约有10层，而最复杂的芯片可以有超过150层。要打印的特征尺寸因层而异，这意味着不同类型的光刻系统用于不同的层——我们最新一代的EUV系统用于具有最小特征的最关键层，而ArF、KrF和i-line DUV系统用于具有较大特征的不太关键层。</i>”<i>ASML 2020年年度报告，光刻的作用，第14页。12.</i><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2020年年度报告，光刻的作用，第14页。12.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I believe most investors are familiar with confirmation bias, and if they aren’t, they should grab a book and educate themselves. Having read through this section, it can easily sound as if I as the author is suffering from confirmation bias given how strongly I’ve advocated for ASML’s position and competitive power. However, I’ve striven towards identifying situations that could severely impact ASML and being honest I can’t find it. There are of course the risks associated with geopolitical tension, which also showed itself in the stock price back in 2016, the risk of supply chain disruption as is currently transpiring across the industry and competition for talent. These are touched upon by the company itself in their annual report 2020 p. 21 and no industry comes without potential risks.</p><p><blockquote>我相信大多数投资者都熟悉确认偏差，如果他们不熟悉，他们应该拿本书自学。通读这一部分后，考虑到我对ASML的地位和竞争力的强烈支持，我作为作者很容易受到确认偏见的困扰。然而，我一直在努力找出可能严重影响ASML的情况，老实说，我找不到。当然，也存在与地缘政治紧张局势相关的风险，这在2016年的股价中也有所体现，目前整个行业正在发生的供应链中断的风险以及人才竞争。该公司自己在其2020年年度报告第21页中提到了这些问题，没有一个行业没有潜在风险。</blockquote></p><p> So, to sum it all up:</p><p><blockquote>所以，总结一下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>ASML has pioneered EUV lithography, with no competitors in sight</li>  <li>EUV will enable the continuation of Moore’s Law and will drive long term value for ASML and its customers well into this decade</li>  <li>The semiconductor sector forecasted to grow at CAGR of 8.6% through 2028, outpacing general GDP with ASML being a key supplier to the manufacturers (foundries)</li>  <li>Strong industry CAPEX driving demand for ASML offerings</li>  <li>The path forward for expanding EUV business in terms of installed base management, margins improvement and manufacturer dependency on EUV machinery for leading edge chips</li>  <li>ASML is a crucial player for leading edge chip manufacturing</li> </ul> Sounds pretty good to me.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>ASML开创了EUV光刻，看不到竞争对手</li><li>EUV将使摩尔定律得以延续，并将在本十年为ASML及其客户带来长期价值</li><li>预计到2028年，半导体行业的复合年增长率将达到8.6%，超过总体GDP，ASML是制造商（代工厂）的主要供应商</li><li>强劲的行业资本支出推动了对ASML产品的需求</li><li>在装机基础管理、利润率提高以及制造商对领先芯片的EUV机械的依赖方面扩大EUV业务的前进道路</li><li>ASML是领先芯片制造的关键参与者</li></ul>对我来说听起来不错。</blockquote></p><p> The Financial Performance and Development</p><p><blockquote>财务表现及发展</blockquote></p><p> ASML is doing well for itself as evident by the illustration below.</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，ASML自身表现良好。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Strong revenue growth</li>  <li>Strong margin expansion</li>  <li>Strong improvement in free cash flow</li>  <li>Impressive operational improvements strengthening its moat through increased R&amp;D spend and IP portfolio</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7900753b1857ac9ad6fc705b9baad563\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"414\"><span>Annual Report 2020, p 7.</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>收入增长强劲</li><li>利润率强劲扩张</li><li>自由现金流强劲改善</li><li>令人印象深刻的运营改进通过增加研发支出和知识产权组合来加强其护城河</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2020年年度报告，第7页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This was followed by a strong Q1-2021 performance with mouth-watering financials on both top and bottom line. However, for their Q2-2021 performance they are guiding for slightly lower revenue expansion at €4.1 billion with a gross margin of 49%, which is still above the long term average but closer to it. There is however no denying that the company is thriving in the current environment.</p><p><blockquote>随后是2021年第一季度的强劲表现，营收和利润都令人垂涎。然而，对于2021年第二季度的业绩，他们预计收入扩张略低，为41亿欧元，毛利率为49%，仍高于长期平均水平，但更接近长期平均水平。然而，不可否认的是，该公司在当前环境下蓬勃发展。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60ea4dedde41a918bd9e1fd307a9531f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 14.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2021年第一季度，第14页。14.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> An interesting detail is the development within the installed base management as illustrated earlier in the article. The company is delivering on its promise with a strong development within this segment growing 29% YoY from 2019 to 2020, well beyond the total growth of 18%.</p><p><blockquote>一个有趣的细节是安装库管理中的开发，如本文前面所述。该公司正在兑现其承诺，该领域的强劲发展从2019年到2020年同比增长29%，远远超过18%的总增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6966dcaf747d226d5de580187d4d3ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 8.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2021年第一季度，第14页。8.</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The more interesting question however is whether the market estimates are underestimating the potential for ASML. An immensely hard question, but if we give it a look, I personally at least see the possibility of that being the case.</p><p><blockquote>然而，更有趣的问题是，市场估计是否低估了ASML的潜力。这是一个非常困难的问题，但如果我们看一看，我个人至少看到了这种可能性。</blockquote></p><p> Are Analyst Consensus Estimates Under- or Over-Estimating ASML’s Potential?</p><p><blockquote>分析师的一致估计是低估了还是高估了ASML的潜力？</blockquote></p><p> ASML is well-covered by analysts offering estimates all the way through 2028, but with coverage waning once we go beyond 2025 which is the last year covered by more than one analyst. The current estimates show a revenue CAGR development of 11.1% from 2020 to 2028, but if we remove 2021, which shows stellar growth, the CAGR is 6.5%.</p><p><blockquote>分析师对ASML的报道很好，他们提供了到2028年的预测，但一旦我们超过2025年，报道范围就会减弱，这是最后一年有超过一名分析师报道。目前的估计显示，从2020年到2028年，收入CAGR发展为11.1%，但如果我们去掉2021年的强劲增长，CAGR为6.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9adf4cebbce28dc7433186b5bd0827e8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Author's Own Creation, Source Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>作者自己的创作，来源寻求阿尔法。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Remember the sector as a whole is forecasted to exhibit growth at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028. These are all estimates which carry great uncertainty with no one able to reliably predict the future. However, it is worth noticing that revenue estimates for ASML are below the sector as a whole if the massive jump from 2020 to 2021 is left out of the equation. Average revenue growth from 2026 to 2028 is currently estimated to be 3.5%.</p><p><blockquote>请记住，预计到2028年，整个行业的复合年增长率将达到8.6%。这些都是带有很大不确定性的估计，没有人能够可靠地预测未来。然而，值得注意的是，如果不考虑2020年至2021年的大幅增长，ASML的收入预期将低于整个行业。目前预计2026年至2028年的平均收入增长率为3.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Considering some of the arguments in favour of why ASML’s outlook could be even more positive:</p><p><blockquote>考虑一些支持ASML前景可能更加积极的论点：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>General semiconductor industry CAGR 2020-2028 forecasted at 8.6%.</li>  <li>DUV CAGR 2020-2025forecastedat 8.4%, it is still ASML’s largest product category.</li>  <li>EUV CAGR 2020-2027forecastedat 12%.</li>  <li>ASML is a linchpin player to solve chip shortage through technology advancement and its machines define the performance of every electrical gadget we utilise in our daily lives.</li>  <li>ASML shows progress in its plan to widen the ecosystem for its machinery through \"Installed Base Management\" increasing the total addressable market by upwards of double digits percentage as 2018 sales were 20% installed base management and 2025 estimate is 50%.</li>  <li>ASML dominates the DUV immersion segment, the part of DUV with high margins as its two solecompetitorsin DUV, Nikon and Canon lack the means and capabilities.</li>  <li>As the market transitions to EUV, the demand for DUV willfollowas the chip stacking process benefits from both systems through its manufacturing.</li> </ul> This is without mentioning the potential price increases that could trickle down towards its customers as they could be fighting over ASML’s capacity due to its strong market position of 85% in DUV and monopoly within EUV while also bringing High NA-EUV to market by mid of this decade. Customers today pay roughly $130-150 million for EUV machines, while DUV machines come in at around $100 million. The largest hindrance to ASML overdelivering is its current capacity constraint in terms of ability to deliver EUV systems which is capped somewhere between 40 and 50 systems a year, with the company of course striving to expand that capacity constraint as demand builds up over the years. On the other hand, this could also be a driver for price increases as ASML strives to expand capacity.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>通用半导体行业CAGR 2020-2028年预测为8.6%。</li><li>DUV CAGR 2020-2025预测为8.4%，仍然是ASML最大的产品类别。</li><li>EUV CAGR 2020-2027年预测为12%。</li><li>ASML是通过技术进步解决芯片短缺的关键参与者，其机器定义了我们日常生活中使用的每一个电子设备的性能。</li><li>ASML在通过“安装基础管理”扩大其机械生态系统的计划方面取得了进展，使总目标市场增加了两位数以上的百分比，因为2018年的销售额占安装基础管理的20%，2025年的估计为50%。</li><li>ASML在DUV沉浸式细分市场占据主导地位，这是DUV利润率较高的部分，因为其在DUV的两个唯一竞争对手尼康和佳能缺乏手段和能力。</li><li>随着市场向EUV过渡，对DUV的需求将随之而来，因为芯片堆叠工艺通过其制造从这两种系统中受益。</li></ul>这还没有提到潜在的价格上涨可能会渗透到其客户身上，因为他们可能会争夺ASML的产能，因为ASML在DUV中占据85%的强大市场地位以及在EUV中的垄断地位，同时也在中期将高NA-EUV推向市场。这十年。如今，客户为EUV机器支付大约1.3-1.5亿美元，而DUV机器的价格约为1亿美元。ASML超额交付的最大障碍是其目前交付EUV系统的能力限制，每年交付EUV系统的能力限制在40到50个系统之间，随着多年来需求的增加，该公司当然会努力扩大这一能力限制。另一方面，随着ASML努力扩大产能，这也可能成为价格上涨的驱动力。</blockquote></p><p> I will not try to construct an even bolder revenue guidance as it’s a cheap shot and frankly, no one has the capacity to accurately forecast if the current expectations will stand or whether they are too positive or negative. I just want to highlight that with everything going on and ASML’s market position in mind, I don’t consider it unreasonable that the company will do even better than currently anticipated.</p><p><blockquote>我不会试图构建一个更大胆的收入指引，因为这是一个廉价的机会，坦率地说，没有人有能力准确预测当前的预期是否成立，或者它们是否过于积极或消极。我只想强调，考虑到正在发生的一切以及ASML的市场地位，我认为该公司的表现比目前预期的更好并不是不合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> The stock price is an inch away from its 52-week high and has been on a tear since the beginning of 2020, really taking off since October 2020 from which it has doubled since.</p><p><blockquote>该股价距离52周高点仅一英寸，自2020年初以来一直在上涨，自2020年10月以来真正起飞，此后已翻了一番。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/472c0e2f540c1d4ee2a7bbaec09379c0\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"453\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Market cap has exploded with all other parameters left in its wake having seen a significant expansion in price-earnings ratio despite a strong improvement in EPS and revenue. The stock market has long since recognised the story and potential of ASML with the Wall Street analyst target currently at $722 per share. Fair to say, there is no margin of safety if the analysts are correct in the predictions. Interestingly, out of the 30 analysts offering a price target, the percentage who are very bullish hasn’t been higher since 2016 with 56% stating a very bullish opinion. There is a mental exercise in staying cautious in terms of believing in such statements, not least because the stock has only known one direction for the last couple of years – upwards.</p><p><blockquote>尽管每股收益和收入强劲改善，但所有其他参数都出现了爆炸式增长，市盈率也大幅扩大。股市早已认识到ASML的故事和潜力，华尔街分析师目前的目标是每股722美元。公平地说，如果分析师的预测是正确的，就没有安全边际。有趣的是，在提供价格目标的30名分析师中，非常看涨的比例自2016年以来从未如此之高，其中56%的分析师表示非常看涨。在相信此类言论时保持谨慎是一种心理锻炼，尤其是因为该股在过去几年中只知道一个方向——向上。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The significance of the expansion in typical ratios is evident when considered over a five-year horizon as shown below. Both P/E and P/S have expanded massively standing at 55 and 15.7 respectively. However, the company is in a very different place compared to three years ago.</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，当考虑到五年的时间范围时，典型比率扩张的重要性是显而易见的。市盈率和市盈率均大幅上涨，分别为55和15.7。然而，与三年前相比，该公司的处境截然不同。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c691d4662a793b5de150add67a3a4e11\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Revenue is growing significantly faster than previously with gross margin and free cash flow also having improved. Due to this positive development, ASML is also returning plenty of capital to its shareholders with a share buyback program of €10 billion for 2021, which unfortunately only translates to a reduction of 0.5% of the current float.</p><p><blockquote>收入增长速度明显快于以前，毛利率和自由现金流也有所改善。由于这一积极的发展，ASML还通过2021年100亿欧元的股票回购计划向股东返还了大量资本，不幸的是，这仅相当于当前流通量减少了0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7341584d3ba7b1db51e1eef3c4bdaccd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The strong belief in ASML going forward is also clearly illustrated by the estimates for the coming years, which throughout the most recent years has been steadily climbing due to the company’s strong portfolio and market dominance.</p><p><blockquote>对ASML未来几年的预测也清楚地表明了人们对ASML未来的坚定信心，由于该公司强大的投资组合和市场主导地位，近年来该预测一直在稳步攀升。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b262aeeb8d75114dbc3e45bf9464c830\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With all that said, I believe that current shareholders do well for themselves in holding on to their existing shares as this company has a great outlook. I’ve had my eyes on ASML for the last year, and I’m extremely sad to say I never got around to looking into it properly, but only looked it at from afar and concluded that the stock might be due for a good pullback at one point. Little did I know.</p><p><blockquote>综上所述，我相信目前的股东在持有现有股份方面做得很好，因为这家公司前景广阔。去年我一直在关注ASML，我非常难过地说，我从未抽出时间仔细研究过它，只是从远处看了看，并得出结论，该股可能会出现良好的回调在某一点上。我一点也不知道。</blockquote></p><p> As Peter Lynch famously said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves,” as would also be true for someone like me who didn’t act in time. I’m still massively fascinated by ASML’s outlook and potential journey, but at the current price, I remain hesitant about the prospects and the lack of margin of safety.</p><p><blockquote>正如彼得·林奇（Peter Lynch）的名言，“投资者为调整做准备或试图预测调整而损失的资金远远多于调整本身损失的资金”，对于像我这样没有及时采取行动的人来说也是如此。我仍然对ASML的前景和潜在旅程非常着迷，但以目前的价格，我仍然对前景和缺乏安全边际犹豫不决。</blockquote></p><p> There is a lot of potential for ASML to grow into its valuation, and if one is to add that current levels, I’d say dollar-cost averaging is a prudent strategy for the current price, while reserving the possibility to back up the truck for a full load if we see a pullback before end of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>ASML的估值有很大的增长潜力，如果要加上当前的水平，我会说美元成本平均法对于当前价格来说是一种谨慎的策略，同时保留备份的可能性如果我们在2021年底之前看到回调，卡车将满载。</blockquote></p><p> As can be seen below, it is not uncommon for ASML to experience a 10% setback once or twice a year.</p><p><blockquote>从下面可以看出，ASML每年经历一两次10%的挫折并不罕见。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad90b51964870f5475b596fe16f63317\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> ASML is dominant within its two main offerings, the DUV and EUV lithography. Its market is backed by incredibly strong tailwinds as all our gadgets, electrical cars, 5G, datacentres, cloud servers, etc. are heavily reliant on the technology platform offered by ASML. A true innovator with no real competition in sight, feeding machinery and tools to an industry expected to grow at CAGR 8.6% through 2028 with potentially even stronger growth for both its DUV and EUV platforms while also expecting margin expansion.</p><p><blockquote>ASML在其两个主要产品DUV和EUV光刻中占据主导地位。它的市场得到了令人难以置信的强劲推动力的支持，因为我们所有的小工具、电动汽车、5G、数据中心、云服务器等。严重依赖ASML提供的技术平台。一家真正的创新者，看不到真正的竞争，为预计到2028年复合年增长率为8.6%的行业提供机械和工具，其DUV和EUV平台的增长可能会更强劲，同时预计利润率将扩大。</blockquote></p><p> There is little evil to be said about ASML, but unfortunately, the stock market has long since recognised its amazing story and potential. With such a strong outlook in sight, existing shareholders do well for themselves in holding onto their shares and just enjoy the journey ahead, but for the prospective shareholders, there appears to be a little margin of safety with the market cap having expanded significantly recently and the stock trading just an inch shy of its 52 week high.</p><p><blockquote>ASML没什么不好说的，但不幸的是，股市早已认识到其惊人的故事和潜力。在如此强劲的前景下，现有股东在持有股票并享受未来的旅程方面做得很好，但对于潜在股东来说，随着市值的大幅扩大，似乎还有一点安全边际。最近，该股的交易价格距离52周高点仅一英寸。</blockquote></p><p> As Peter Lynch said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” The exact fallacy I’ve fallen victim to as I’ve looked at ASML from afar for quite a while. Despite the recent expansion in market cap and multiples, there could be made a case for current estimates underestimating ASML’s true potential, but any forecast extending 5-10 years into the future comes with extreme uncertainty and guesstimation. As I’ve shown, ASML’s share price is prone to setbacks once or twice a year allowing dollar-cost averaging to serve as a method to acquire exposure to the company slowly building a position along the way.</p><p><blockquote>正如彼得·林奇（Peter Lynch）所说，“投资者准备调整或试图预测调整所损失的资金远远超过调整本身所损失的资金。”当我从远处看ASML很长一段时间时，我已经成为了这个谬论的受害者。尽管最近市值和市盈率有所扩大，但目前的估计可能低估了ASML的真正潜力，但任何延长到未来5-10年的预测都带有极大的不确定性和猜测。正如我所展示的，ASML的股价每年容易出现一到两次挫折，这使得平均成本法可以作为一种方法来获得该公司的风险敞口，并在此过程中慢慢建立头寸。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435422-asml-market-could-be-underestimating-its-potential\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ASML":"阿斯麦"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435422-asml-market-could-be-underestimating-its-potential","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168762020","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.\nDUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 12% through 2027.\nASML holds a monopoly within EUV and faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms absolutely vital for the semiconductor manufacturing process.\nA true innovator, ASML commands an outstanding position and growth outlook but the stock market has long since recognized the potential.\nExisting shareholders do well for themselves in just enjoying the ride, but there is little margin of safety left for prospective shareholders who might dip their toes into the water through dollar-cost averaging to benefit from the strong tailwinds powering ASML.\n\nMACRO PHOTO/iStock via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis\nASML Holding (ASML) commands a market position like no one else with not a competitor in sight for its most advanced technological platform, EUV lithography. Similarly, it faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms vital for semiconductor manufacturing. The household names within the semiconductor industry belong to the manufacturers, but the machinery providers, such as ASML, command very strong moats through extensive technological knowledge and strong process knowledge leaving all potential competitors years behind if they should ever try to compete.\nIt's hard to think of a better competitive situation, especially when operating in a sector forecasted to grow well above general GDP for many years to come. However, the market has long since recognized ASML's outstanding potential and potential journey, but still, it could be underestimating the potential.\nIntroduction\nI recently wrote an article concerning how youcan’t own too much semiconductor exposure. Having decomposed the value chain for semiconductor manufacturing, I received a number of questions concerning ASML in the comment sections and decided to conduct this follow-up. I’ve selected ASML due to its unique marketplace position and potential.\nPersonally I have exposure to the manufacturing level of the semiconductor value chain through shares in both Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), but venturing further back into the value chain, and investors can be allowed to invest in a broader manner into the industry, as the suppliers of machinery and software obtain a broader exposure to most of the manufacturers making it immensely interesting as you can adopt the mantra of “I don’t really mind who wins, as long as they are racing”. As such, potential exposure upstream in the value chain carries great interest.\nThe Marketplace and Value Drivers For Years To Come\nFor ASML followers it’s no surprise at this point, but ASML is dominant within the product offering that will drive its revenue for the coming decade, EUV (Extreme ultraviolet lithography) technology. My personal take is that it is hard to find a company in a similarly advantageous competitive position anywhere in any industry. ASML provides equipment for lithography, the art of printing the chip features via light sources, in several light spectrums with its most advanced being EUV which is the next-gen to DUV (deep ultraviolet lithography). For DUV there are competitors albeit ASML has a massive market share above 85%. The difference between DUV and EUV is that EUV operates at a light wavelength almost 15 times smaller than DUV (13.5nm compared to 193nm).\nActually, the semiconductor manufacturers for the leading edge chips such as 5nm and soon to be 3nm are deeply dependent on the EUV machinery. Without it, it simply wouldn’t be possible. That sounds like a pretty good bargain for those who can manufacture these machines, but there is only one company that is able to do it, and that is ASML. For every generation of new EUV machinery, its yield becomes better with higher throughput and reduced downtime issues, meaning that ASML is effectively lightyears ahead of anyone who would try to pick up the gauntlet and challenge their dominant position.\nThis is an industry where everything is about process knowledge. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is able to produce 5nm chips because it was able to produce 7nm, and it will be able to produce 3nm because it can produce 5nm and has done that a million times over which is also why it was so detrimental to Intel Corp (INTC) that it had to acknowledge its persistent issues with the 7nm technology.\nQuite simply, there is no 3nm if you can’t do the 5nm, as also discussed in my previous article. Same goes for ASML as a competitor would be years and years behind ASML if they entered the EUV space as they would struggle with the same issues that have plagued ASML in its early days of EUV more than a decade ago. I’ve included a number of illustrations from their most recent investor day which took place in November 2018, with the next one to take place in September 2021.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 6.\nThe picture above clearly illustrates the process knowledge having been picked up by ASML throughout its EUV lifetime. This has also translated into better EUV machinery for each new generation as also evident by its productivity improvements. Again, I can’t imagine a more favourable competitive situation for a company, given how much time and capital it would require for a competitor to adopt the EUV technology.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 16.\nSemiconductor manufacturing is a cutthroat business with heavy R&D spend (it took ASML €6 billion in R&D spend to invent EUV) driving chip improvements according to Moore’s law, meaning that ASML is already working on the next-gen technology, referred to as High NA-EUV. High NA-EUV is still some time away, with the timeline below being slightly outdated, but its technology will significantly improve the EUV platform and power the industry beyond this decade. It takes time to develop the technology, improve yield and reduce downtime, but there is still plenty of opportunities for EUV in terms of marketplace expansion and margin improvement.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 21.\nASML itself has laid out the expected path in terms of optimised margins through both add-ons facing the buyer side and upstream cost reductions facing their suppliers creating a sweet spot for the company effectively striving to achieve the same profitability profile as for its more mature DUV platform.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 25.\nIf that wasn’t good enough, then add the fact that the semiconductor industry in general is expected to outpace general GDP for at least until 2028 with a CAGR of 8.6%. Recentcommunicationsby Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel and Samsung Electronics Company (OTC:SSNLF) shows the strength and growth potential for the sector with their combined CAPEX expectations going beyond $200 billion for the coming decade, with a significant chunk of that within the coming years.\nAs can be seen in the illustration above, ASML expects increased customer value through upgrades, with their roadmap for DUV serving as an example in terms of how the revenue base could expand over the coming years for EUV as is the case for DUV via what the company has labelled installed base management.\nASML Investor Day 2018, DUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 10.\nThere is of course always the possibility of a serious contender entering the marketplace in order to try and challenge ASML, but companies have tried to enter the space when the technology was in its infancy having given up, meaning the prime threat would be the emergence of a new lithography technology arriving and doing to EUV what EUV did to DUV. Possible sure, likely, not so much. Just to hammer down the point, I’ve inserted a paragraph from ASML’s own description of how lithography plays its role.\n\n “\n Lithography is a driving force in the creation of more powerful, faster and cheaper chips. The manufacturing of chips becomes increasingly complex as semiconductor feature sizes shrink, while the imperative to mass produce at the right cost remains. Our holistic lithography product portfolio helps to optimize production and enable affordable shrink by integrating lithography systems with computational modeling, as well as metrology and inspection solutions. A lithography system is essentially a projection system. Light is projected through a blueprint of the pattern that will be printed (known as a ‘mask’ or ‘reticle’). With the pattern encoded in the light, the system’s optics shrink and focus the pattern onto a photosensitive silicon wafer. After the pattern is printed, the system moves the wafer slightly and makes another copy on the wafer. This process is repeated until the wafer is covered in patterns, completing one layer of the wafer’s chips. To make an entire microchip, this process is repeated layer after layer, stacking the patterns to create an integrated circuit (IC). The simplest chips have around 10 layers, while the most complex can have over 150 layers. The size of the features to be printed varies depending on the layer, which means that different types of lithography systems are used for different layers – our latest-generation EUV systems for the most critical layers with the smallest features to ArF, KrF, and i-line DUV systems for less critical layers with larger features.”\n ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.\n\nASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.\nI believe most investors are familiar with confirmation bias, and if they aren’t, they should grab a book and educate themselves. Having read through this section, it can easily sound as if I as the author is suffering from confirmation bias given how strongly I’ve advocated for ASML’s position and competitive power. However, I’ve striven towards identifying situations that could severely impact ASML and being honest I can’t find it. There are of course the risks associated with geopolitical tension, which also showed itself in the stock price back in 2016, the risk of supply chain disruption as is currently transpiring across the industry and competition for talent. These are touched upon by the company itself in their annual report 2020 p. 21 and no industry comes without potential risks.\nSo, to sum it all up:\n\nASML has pioneered EUV lithography, with no competitors in sight\nEUV will enable the continuation of Moore’s Law and will drive long term value for ASML and its customers well into this decade\nThe semiconductor sector forecasted to grow at CAGR of 8.6% through 2028, outpacing general GDP with ASML being a key supplier to the manufacturers (foundries)\nStrong industry CAPEX driving demand for ASML offerings\nThe path forward for expanding EUV business in terms of installed base management, margins improvement and manufacturer dependency on EUV machinery for leading edge chips\nASML is a crucial player for leading edge chip manufacturing\n\nSounds pretty good to me.\nThe Financial Performance and Development\nASML is doing well for itself as evident by the illustration below.\n\nStrong revenue growth\nStrong margin expansion\nStrong improvement in free cash flow\nImpressive operational improvements strengthening its moat through increased R&D spend and IP portfolio\n\nAnnual Report 2020, p 7.\nThis was followed by a strong Q1-2021 performance with mouth-watering financials on both top and bottom line. However, for their Q2-2021 performance they are guiding for slightly lower revenue expansion at €4.1 billion with a gross margin of 49%, which is still above the long term average but closer to it. There is however no denying that the company is thriving in the current environment.\nASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 14.\nAn interesting detail is the development within the installed base management as illustrated earlier in the article. The company is delivering on its promise with a strong development within this segment growing 29% YoY from 2019 to 2020, well beyond the total growth of 18%.\nASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 8.\nThe more interesting question however is whether the market estimates are underestimating the potential for ASML. An immensely hard question, but if we give it a look, I personally at least see the possibility of that being the case.\nAre Analyst Consensus Estimates Under- or Over-Estimating ASML’s Potential?\nASML is well-covered by analysts offering estimates all the way through 2028, but with coverage waning once we go beyond 2025 which is the last year covered by more than one analyst. The current estimates show a revenue CAGR development of 11.1% from 2020 to 2028, but if we remove 2021, which shows stellar growth, the CAGR is 6.5%.\nAuthor's Own Creation, Source Seeking Alpha.\nRemember the sector as a whole is forecasted to exhibit growth at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028. These are all estimates which carry great uncertainty with no one able to reliably predict the future. However, it is worth noticing that revenue estimates for ASML are below the sector as a whole if the massive jump from 2020 to 2021 is left out of the equation. Average revenue growth from 2026 to 2028 is currently estimated to be 3.5%.\nConsidering some of the arguments in favour of why ASML’s outlook could be even more positive:\n\nGeneral semiconductor industry CAGR 2020-2028 forecasted at 8.6%.\nDUV CAGR 2020-2025forecastedat 8.4%, it is still ASML’s largest product category.\nEUV CAGR 2020-2027forecastedat 12%.\nASML is a linchpin player to solve chip shortage through technology advancement and its machines define the performance of every electrical gadget we utilise in our daily lives.\nASML shows progress in its plan to widen the ecosystem for its machinery through \"Installed Base Management\" increasing the total addressable market by upwards of double digits percentage as 2018 sales were 20% installed base management and 2025 estimate is 50%.\nASML dominates the DUV immersion segment, the part of DUV with high margins as its two solecompetitorsin DUV, Nikon and Canon lack the means and capabilities.\nAs the market transitions to EUV, the demand for DUV willfollowas the chip stacking process benefits from both systems through its manufacturing.\n\nThis is without mentioning the potential price increases that could trickle down towards its customers as they could be fighting over ASML’s capacity due to its strong market position of 85% in DUV and monopoly within EUV while also bringing High NA-EUV to market by mid of this decade. Customers today pay roughly $130-150 million for EUV machines, while DUV machines come in at around $100 million. The largest hindrance to ASML overdelivering is its current capacity constraint in terms of ability to deliver EUV systems which is capped somewhere between 40 and 50 systems a year, with the company of course striving to expand that capacity constraint as demand builds up over the years. On the other hand, this could also be a driver for price increases as ASML strives to expand capacity.\nI will not try to construct an even bolder revenue guidance as it’s a cheap shot and frankly, no one has the capacity to accurately forecast if the current expectations will stand or whether they are too positive or negative. I just want to highlight that with everything going on and ASML’s market position in mind, I don’t consider it unreasonable that the company will do even better than currently anticipated.\nValuation\nThe stock price is an inch away from its 52-week high and has been on a tear since the beginning of 2020, really taking off since October 2020 from which it has doubled since.\nData by YCharts\nMarket cap has exploded with all other parameters left in its wake having seen a significant expansion in price-earnings ratio despite a strong improvement in EPS and revenue. The stock market has long since recognised the story and potential of ASML with the Wall Street analyst target currently at $722 per share. Fair to say, there is no margin of safety if the analysts are correct in the predictions. Interestingly, out of the 30 analysts offering a price target, the percentage who are very bullish hasn’t been higher since 2016 with 56% stating a very bullish opinion. There is a mental exercise in staying cautious in terms of believing in such statements, not least because the stock has only known one direction for the last couple of years – upwards.\nThe significance of the expansion in typical ratios is evident when considered over a five-year horizon as shown below. Both P/E and P/S have expanded massively standing at 55 and 15.7 respectively. However, the company is in a very different place compared to three years ago.\nData by YCharts\nRevenue is growing significantly faster than previously with gross margin and free cash flow also having improved. Due to this positive development, ASML is also returning plenty of capital to its shareholders with a share buyback program of €10 billion for 2021, which unfortunately only translates to a reduction of 0.5% of the current float.\nData by YCharts\nThe strong belief in ASML going forward is also clearly illustrated by the estimates for the coming years, which throughout the most recent years has been steadily climbing due to the company’s strong portfolio and market dominance.\nData by YCharts\nWith all that said, I believe that current shareholders do well for themselves in holding on to their existing shares as this company has a great outlook. I’ve had my eyes on ASML for the last year, and I’m extremely sad to say I never got around to looking into it properly, but only looked it at from afar and concluded that the stock might be due for a good pullback at one point. Little did I know.\nAs Peter Lynch famously said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves,” as would also be true for someone like me who didn’t act in time. I’m still massively fascinated by ASML’s outlook and potential journey, but at the current price, I remain hesitant about the prospects and the lack of margin of safety.\nThere is a lot of potential for ASML to grow into its valuation, and if one is to add that current levels, I’d say dollar-cost averaging is a prudent strategy for the current price, while reserving the possibility to back up the truck for a full load if we see a pullback before end of 2021.\nAs can be seen below, it is not uncommon for ASML to experience a 10% setback once or twice a year.\nData by YCharts\nConclusion\nASML is dominant within its two main offerings, the DUV and EUV lithography. Its market is backed by incredibly strong tailwinds as all our gadgets, electrical cars, 5G, datacentres, cloud servers, etc. are heavily reliant on the technology platform offered by ASML. A true innovator with no real competition in sight, feeding machinery and tools to an industry expected to grow at CAGR 8.6% through 2028 with potentially even stronger growth for both its DUV and EUV platforms while also expecting margin expansion.\nThere is little evil to be said about ASML, but unfortunately, the stock market has long since recognised its amazing story and potential. With such a strong outlook in sight, existing shareholders do well for themselves in holding onto their shares and just enjoy the journey ahead, but for the prospective shareholders, there appears to be a little margin of safety with the market cap having expanded significantly recently and the stock trading just an inch shy of its 52 week high.\nAs Peter Lynch said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” The exact fallacy I’ve fallen victim to as I’ve looked at ASML from afar for quite a while. Despite the recent expansion in market cap and multiples, there could be made a case for current estimates underestimating ASML’s true potential, but any forecast extending 5-10 years into the future comes with extreme uncertainty and guesstimation. As I’ve shown, ASML’s share price is prone to setbacks once or twice a year allowing dollar-cost averaging to serve as a method to acquire exposure to the company slowly building a position along the way.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ASML":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1518,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160737960,"gmtCreate":1623806252950,"gmtModify":1634027890583,"author":{"id":"3582499726363900","authorId":"3582499726363900","name":"owlee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582499726363900","authorIdStr":"3582499726363900"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh no","listText":"Oh no","text":"Oh no","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160737960","repostId":"2143680537","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1890,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187419493,"gmtCreate":1623761687212,"gmtModify":1634028804620,"author":{"id":"3582499726363900","authorId":"3582499726363900","name":"owlee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582499726363900","authorIdStr":"3582499726363900"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great!&nbsp;","listText":"Great!&nbsp;","text":"Great!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187419493","repostId":"1127660571","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127660571","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623760680,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1127660571?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 20:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Toplines Before US Market Open on Tuesday<blockquote>周二美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127660571","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Stock futures edge up ahead of retail sales data.\nS&P 500 index is headed toward its 30th record clo","content":"<p><ul>  <li>Stock futures edge up ahead of retail sales data.</li>  <li>S&amp;P 500 index is headed toward its 30th record close of the year, bolstered by gains in tech stocks.</li>  <li><b>Increase in in PPI over past 12 months rises to 6.6% from 6.2%.</b></li>  <li><b>U.S. retail sales minus gas and autos fall 0.8% in May.</b></li>  <li><b>U.S. retail sales minus gas and autos fall 0.8% in May.</b></li> </ul> (June 15)&nbsp;<b>Producer prices climb 6.6% in May on annual basis, largest 12-month increase on record.</b>&nbsp;Producer prices rose at their fastest annual clip in nearly 11 years in May as inflation continued to build in the U.S. economy, the Labor Department reported Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>股票期货在零售销售数据公布前小幅上涨。</li><li>在科技股上涨的推动下，标普500指数即将创下今年第30个收盘纪录。</li><li><b>过去12个月PPI涨幅从6.2%升至6.6%。</b></li><li><b>美国5月份扣除汽油和汽车的零售额下降0.8%。</b></li><li><b>美国5月份扣除汽油和汽车的零售额下降0.8%。</b></li></ul>（6月15日）<b>5月份生产者价格按年率计算上涨6.6%，为有记录以来的12个月最大涨幅。</b>美国劳工部周二报告称，随着美国经济通胀持续加剧，5月份生产者价格涨幅创近11年来最快。</blockquote></p><p> On a monthly basis, the producer price index for final demand rose 0.8%, ahead of the Dow Jones estimate of 0.6%.</p><p><blockquote>按月计算，最终需求生产者价格指数上涨0.8%，高于道琼斯预期的0.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stock&nbsp;Market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>股票市场</b></blockquote></p><p> U.S. stock futures edged higher Tuesday ahead of fresh data that will indicate how much Americans spent in stores, at restaurants and online last month.</p><p><blockquote>美国股指期货周二小幅走高，新数据将显示美国人上个月在商店、餐馆和网上的支出。</blockquote></p><p> Futures tied to the S&amp;P 500 ticked up 0.1%, indicating that the broad benchmark index is on track to notch its thirtieth record close of the year. Nasdaq-100 futures gained 0.2%, pointing togains in technology stocksafter the opening bell.</p><p><blockquote>与标普500相关的期货上涨0.1%，表明该广泛的基准指数有望创下今年第三十个收盘纪录。纳斯达克100指数期货上涨0.2%，表明开盘后科技股上涨。</blockquote></p><p> At 8:38&nbsp;a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 18 points, or 0.05%, S&amp;P 500 e-minis were up 5.5 points, or 0.13%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 24.75 points, or 0.18%.</p><p><blockquote>上午8点38分。ET，道指e-minis上涨18点，涨幅0.05%，标普500 e-minis上涨5.5点，涨幅0.13%，纳斯达克100 e-minis上涨24.75点，涨幅0.18%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86af5e5e5e4faf68b304fa020ca3a033\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"487\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Investors expect that stocks will climb through the rest of the year due to easy monetary policies. Many people are also betting thathigher inflation, due to the easing of economic restrictions and supply-chain bottlenecks, will be temporary. Signs that inflation will be elevated for a prolonged period or that theFederal Reserve may retrace its supportcould shake that confidence, money managers said.</p><p><blockquote>投资者预计，由于宽松的货币政策，股市将在今年剩余时间内攀升。许多人还押注，由于经济限制和供应链瓶颈的缓解，通胀上升将是暂时的。基金经理表示，通胀将长期上升或美联储可能收回支持的迹象可能会动摇这种信心。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket: Vroom, Ping Identity, Sage Therapeutics &amp; more</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：Vroom、Ping Identity、Sage Therapeutics等</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>1)&nbsp;Vroom(VRM)</b> – Vroom intends to offer $500 million in convertible senior notes due in 2026. The used-vehicle e-commerce platform provider plans to use the proceeds for a variety of corporate purposes as well as investing in or acquiring new technologies. Its shares slid 6.1% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>1）轰鸣（VRM）</b>-Vroom打算发行2026年到期的5亿美元可转换优先票据。这家二手车电子商务平台提供商计划将所得款项用于各种企业用途以及投资或收购新技术。其股价在盘前交易中下跌6.1%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2)&nbsp;Ping Identity(PING) </b>– Ping Identity announced a 6 million share common stock offering, in a sale of shares held by investment funds affiliated with Vista Equity Partners. The identity management solutions company will not receive any proceeds from the offering. The stock tumbled 4.2% in premarket action.</p><p><blockquote><b>2）PING身份（PING）</b>-Ping Identity宣布发行600万股普通股，出售Vista Equity Partners附属投资基金持有的股份。身份管理解决方案公司不会从此次发行中获得任何收益。该股在盘前下跌4.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3)&nbsp;Sage Therapeutics(SAGE)</b> – The drugmaker’s shares tanked 17.5% in premarket trading following the release of study results for Sage’s experimental depression drug. The treatment resulted in a statistically significant improvement in symptoms, although it could take up to six weeks to be effective and treatment may be required for months.</p><p><blockquote><b>3）Sage Therapeutics（SAGE）</b>-在Sage实验性抑郁症药物的研究结果发布后，该制药商的股价在盘前交易中下跌17.5%。该治疗导致症状的统计学显著改善，尽管可能需要长达六周才能有效，并且可能需要数月的治疗。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4)&nbsp;Boeing(BA) </b>– The U.S. and European Union announced aresolution of the long-standing disputeover aircraft subsidies involving Boeing and European rival Airbus. The deal suspends World Trade Organization-authorized tariffs for five years, and U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai said it could serve as a model for resolving future disputes.</p><p><blockquote><b>4）波音（BA）</b>-美国和欧盟宣布解决涉及波音公司和欧洲竞争对手空中客车公司的长期飞机补贴争端。该协议将世界贸易组织授权的关税暂停五年，美国贸易代表凯瑟琳·戴表示，该协议可以作为解决未来争端的典范。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5)&nbsp;Exxon Mobil(XOM) </b>– Bank of America reiterated a “buy” rating on the energy giant’s stock, predicting that Exxon Mobil would hike its dividend before the end of the year following cost-cutting measures and a rebound in oil prices.</p><p><blockquote><b>5)埃克森美孚(XOM)</b>——美国银行重申了对这家能源巨头股票的“买入”评级，预计在成本削减措施和油价反弹后，埃克森美孚将在年底前提高股息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>6)&nbsp;Spirit Airlines(SAVE)</b> – Spirit Airlines said in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing that leisure demand has continued to improve throughout the second quarter, and that it has seen operating yields strengthen as well. Citi upgraded the stock to “buy” from “neutral” following that update, and shares rallied 2.6% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>6)精神航空(SAVE)</b>-精神航空在向美国证券交易委员会提交的文件中表示，整个第二季度休闲需求持续改善，营业收益率也有所增强。更新后，花旗将该股评级从“中性”上调至“买入”，股价在盘前上涨2.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>7)&nbsp;Fastenal(FAST)</b> – The maker of industrial and construction supplies was downgraded to “underweight” from “equal-weight” at Morgan Stanley, which notes a lull in customer acquisition as well as a stock that is already near an all-time high. The stock slid 2.2% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>7）Fastenal（快速）</b>-摩根士丹利将这家工业和建筑用品制造商的评级从“同等权重”下调至“跑输大盘”，摩根士丹利指出客户获取陷入停滞，而且该股已接近历史高点。该股盘前下跌2.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>8)&nbsp;AstraZeneca(AZN) </b>– AstraZeneca said an experimental monoclonal antibody treatment did not meet its main goal of preventing Covid-19 in patients who had been exposed to the virus. The company also said, however, that its Covid-19 vaccine is 92% effective against the so-called “Delta” variant of the virus.</p><p><blockquote><b>8）阿斯利康（AZN）</b>-阿斯利康表示，一种实验性单克隆抗体治疗方法没有达到其在接触过该病毒的患者中预防Covid-19的主要目标。然而，该公司还表示，其Covid-19疫苗对所谓的“Delta”病毒变种的有效率为92%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>9)&nbsp;Cracker Barrel(CBRL)</b> – Cracker Barrel announced a $275 million private offering of convertible senior notes due in 2026. The restaurant chain will use the proceeds to pay debt and for general corporate purposes.</p><p><blockquote><b>9）裂解桶（CBRL）</b>-Cracker Barrel宣布私募2.75亿美元2026年到期的可转换优先票据。该连锁餐厅将用所得款项偿还债务和用于一般公司用途。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>10)&nbsp;Novavax(NVAX)</b> – Novavax announced positive results from its first study of its Covid-19 vaccine and a flu vaccine administered simultaneously. The study suggested that simultaneous vaccination may be a viable strategy.</p><p><blockquote><b>10)诺瓦瓦克斯(NVAX)</b>-Novavax宣布其Covid-19疫苗和流感疫苗同时接种的首次研究取得积极结果。该研究表明，同时接种疫苗可能是一种可行的策略。</blockquote></p><p> <b>11)&nbsp;Intuit(INTU)</b> – The financial software company revealed in an SEC filing that its QuickBooks online service saw new customer acquisition grow by more than 25% year-over-year for the nine months ended April 30. Intuit shares had hit an all-time high in Monday’s trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>11）Intuit（INTU）</b>–这家金融软件公司在向SEC提交的文件中透露，截至4月30日的九个月内，其QuickBooks online服务的新客户获取量同比增长超过25%。Intuit股价在周一的交易中创下历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>12)&nbsp;Vimeo(VMEO)</b> – Vimeo reported that total revenue in May rose 42% from a year ago, with the video services company also seeing average revenue per user up 18%.</p><p><blockquote><b>12)Vimeo(VMEO)</b>-Vimeo报告称，5月份总收入同比增长42%，这家视频服务公司的每用户平均收入也增长了18%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Toplines Before US Market Open on Tuesday<blockquote>周二美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nToplines Before US Market Open on Tuesday<blockquote>周二美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-15 20:38</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><ul>  <li>Stock futures edge up ahead of retail sales data.</li>  <li>S&amp;P 500 index is headed toward its 30th record close of the year, bolstered by gains in tech stocks.</li>  <li><b>Increase in in PPI over past 12 months rises to 6.6% from 6.2%.</b></li>  <li><b>U.S. retail sales minus gas and autos fall 0.8% in May.</b></li>  <li><b>U.S. retail sales minus gas and autos fall 0.8% in May.</b></li> </ul> (June 15)&nbsp;<b>Producer prices climb 6.6% in May on annual basis, largest 12-month increase on record.</b>&nbsp;Producer prices rose at their fastest annual clip in nearly 11 years in May as inflation continued to build in the U.S. economy, the Labor Department reported Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>股票期货在零售销售数据公布前小幅上涨。</li><li>在科技股上涨的推动下，标普500指数即将创下今年第30个收盘纪录。</li><li><b>过去12个月PPI涨幅从6.2%升至6.6%。</b></li><li><b>美国5月份扣除汽油和汽车的零售额下降0.8%。</b></li><li><b>美国5月份扣除汽油和汽车的零售额下降0.8%。</b></li></ul>（6月15日）<b>5月份生产者价格按年率计算上涨6.6%，为有记录以来的12个月最大涨幅。</b>美国劳工部周二报告称，随着美国经济通胀持续加剧，5月份生产者价格涨幅创近11年来最快。</blockquote></p><p> On a monthly basis, the producer price index for final demand rose 0.8%, ahead of the Dow Jones estimate of 0.6%.</p><p><blockquote>按月计算，最终需求生产者价格指数上涨0.8%，高于道琼斯预期的0.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stock&nbsp;Market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>股票市场</b></blockquote></p><p> U.S. stock futures edged higher Tuesday ahead of fresh data that will indicate how much Americans spent in stores, at restaurants and online last month.</p><p><blockquote>美国股指期货周二小幅走高，新数据将显示美国人上个月在商店、餐馆和网上的支出。</blockquote></p><p> Futures tied to the S&amp;P 500 ticked up 0.1%, indicating that the broad benchmark index is on track to notch its thirtieth record close of the year. Nasdaq-100 futures gained 0.2%, pointing togains in technology stocksafter the opening bell.</p><p><blockquote>与标普500相关的期货上涨0.1%，表明该广泛的基准指数有望创下今年第三十个收盘纪录。纳斯达克100指数期货上涨0.2%，表明开盘后科技股上涨。</blockquote></p><p> At 8:38&nbsp;a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 18 points, or 0.05%, S&amp;P 500 e-minis were up 5.5 points, or 0.13%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 24.75 points, or 0.18%.</p><p><blockquote>上午8点38分。ET，道指e-minis上涨18点，涨幅0.05%，标普500 e-minis上涨5.5点，涨幅0.13%，纳斯达克100 e-minis上涨24.75点，涨幅0.18%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86af5e5e5e4faf68b304fa020ca3a033\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"487\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Investors expect that stocks will climb through the rest of the year due to easy monetary policies. Many people are also betting thathigher inflation, due to the easing of economic restrictions and supply-chain bottlenecks, will be temporary. Signs that inflation will be elevated for a prolonged period or that theFederal Reserve may retrace its supportcould shake that confidence, money managers said.</p><p><blockquote>投资者预计，由于宽松的货币政策，股市将在今年剩余时间内攀升。许多人还押注，由于经济限制和供应链瓶颈的缓解，通胀上升将是暂时的。基金经理表示，通胀将长期上升或美联储可能收回支持的迹象可能会动摇这种信心。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket: Vroom, Ping Identity, Sage Therapeutics &amp; more</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：Vroom、Ping Identity、Sage Therapeutics等</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>1)&nbsp;Vroom(VRM)</b> – Vroom intends to offer $500 million in convertible senior notes due in 2026. The used-vehicle e-commerce platform provider plans to use the proceeds for a variety of corporate purposes as well as investing in or acquiring new technologies. Its shares slid 6.1% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>1）轰鸣（VRM）</b>-Vroom打算发行2026年到期的5亿美元可转换优先票据。这家二手车电子商务平台提供商计划将所得款项用于各种企业用途以及投资或收购新技术。其股价在盘前交易中下跌6.1%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2)&nbsp;Ping Identity(PING) </b>– Ping Identity announced a 6 million share common stock offering, in a sale of shares held by investment funds affiliated with Vista Equity Partners. The identity management solutions company will not receive any proceeds from the offering. The stock tumbled 4.2% in premarket action.</p><p><blockquote><b>2）PING身份（PING）</b>-Ping Identity宣布发行600万股普通股，出售Vista Equity Partners附属投资基金持有的股份。身份管理解决方案公司不会从此次发行中获得任何收益。该股在盘前下跌4.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3)&nbsp;Sage Therapeutics(SAGE)</b> – The drugmaker’s shares tanked 17.5% in premarket trading following the release of study results for Sage’s experimental depression drug. The treatment resulted in a statistically significant improvement in symptoms, although it could take up to six weeks to be effective and treatment may be required for months.</p><p><blockquote><b>3）Sage Therapeutics（SAGE）</b>-在Sage实验性抑郁症药物的研究结果发布后，该制药商的股价在盘前交易中下跌17.5%。该治疗导致症状的统计学显著改善，尽管可能需要长达六周才能有效，并且可能需要数月的治疗。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4)&nbsp;Boeing(BA) </b>– The U.S. and European Union announced aresolution of the long-standing disputeover aircraft subsidies involving Boeing and European rival Airbus. The deal suspends World Trade Organization-authorized tariffs for five years, and U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai said it could serve as a model for resolving future disputes.</p><p><blockquote><b>4）波音（BA）</b>-美国和欧盟宣布解决涉及波音公司和欧洲竞争对手空中客车公司的长期飞机补贴争端。该协议将世界贸易组织授权的关税暂停五年，美国贸易代表凯瑟琳·戴表示，该协议可以作为解决未来争端的典范。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5)&nbsp;Exxon Mobil(XOM) </b>– Bank of America reiterated a “buy” rating on the energy giant’s stock, predicting that Exxon Mobil would hike its dividend before the end of the year following cost-cutting measures and a rebound in oil prices.</p><p><blockquote><b>5)埃克森美孚(XOM)</b>——美国银行重申了对这家能源巨头股票的“买入”评级，预计在成本削减措施和油价反弹后，埃克森美孚将在年底前提高股息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>6)&nbsp;Spirit Airlines(SAVE)</b> – Spirit Airlines said in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing that leisure demand has continued to improve throughout the second quarter, and that it has seen operating yields strengthen as well. Citi upgraded the stock to “buy” from “neutral” following that update, and shares rallied 2.6% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>6)精神航空(SAVE)</b>-精神航空在向美国证券交易委员会提交的文件中表示，整个第二季度休闲需求持续改善，营业收益率也有所增强。更新后，花旗将该股评级从“中性”上调至“买入”，股价在盘前上涨2.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>7)&nbsp;Fastenal(FAST)</b> – The maker of industrial and construction supplies was downgraded to “underweight” from “equal-weight” at Morgan Stanley, which notes a lull in customer acquisition as well as a stock that is already near an all-time high. The stock slid 2.2% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>7）Fastenal（快速）</b>-摩根士丹利将这家工业和建筑用品制造商的评级从“同等权重”下调至“跑输大盘”，摩根士丹利指出客户获取陷入停滞，而且该股已接近历史高点。该股盘前下跌2.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>8)&nbsp;AstraZeneca(AZN) </b>– AstraZeneca said an experimental monoclonal antibody treatment did not meet its main goal of preventing Covid-19 in patients who had been exposed to the virus. The company also said, however, that its Covid-19 vaccine is 92% effective against the so-called “Delta” variant of the virus.</p><p><blockquote><b>8）阿斯利康（AZN）</b>-阿斯利康表示，一种实验性单克隆抗体治疗方法没有达到其在接触过该病毒的患者中预防Covid-19的主要目标。然而，该公司还表示，其Covid-19疫苗对所谓的“Delta”病毒变种的有效率为92%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>9)&nbsp;Cracker Barrel(CBRL)</b> – Cracker Barrel announced a $275 million private offering of convertible senior notes due in 2026. The restaurant chain will use the proceeds to pay debt and for general corporate purposes.</p><p><blockquote><b>9）裂解桶（CBRL）</b>-Cracker Barrel宣布私募2.75亿美元2026年到期的可转换优先票据。该连锁餐厅将用所得款项偿还债务和用于一般公司用途。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>10)&nbsp;Novavax(NVAX)</b> – Novavax announced positive results from its first study of its Covid-19 vaccine and a flu vaccine administered simultaneously. The study suggested that simultaneous vaccination may be a viable strategy.</p><p><blockquote><b>10)诺瓦瓦克斯(NVAX)</b>-Novavax宣布其Covid-19疫苗和流感疫苗同时接种的首次研究取得积极结果。该研究表明，同时接种疫苗可能是一种可行的策略。</blockquote></p><p> <b>11)&nbsp;Intuit(INTU)</b> – The financial software company revealed in an SEC filing that its QuickBooks online service saw new customer acquisition grow by more than 25% year-over-year for the nine months ended April 30. Intuit shares had hit an all-time high in Monday’s trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>11）Intuit（INTU）</b>–这家金融软件公司在向SEC提交的文件中透露，截至4月30日的九个月内，其QuickBooks online服务的新客户获取量同比增长超过25%。Intuit股价在周一的交易中创下历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>12)&nbsp;Vimeo(VMEO)</b> – Vimeo reported that total revenue in May rose 42% from a year ago, with the video services company also seeing average revenue per user up 18%.</p><p><blockquote><b>12)Vimeo(VMEO)</b>-Vimeo报告称，5月份总收入同比增长42%，这家视频服务公司的每用户平均收入也增长了18%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127660571","content_text":"Stock futures edge up ahead of retail sales data.\nS&P 500 index is headed toward its 30th record close of the year, bolstered by gains in tech stocks.\nIncrease in in PPI over past 12 months rises to 6.6% from 6.2%.\nU.S. retail sales minus gas and autos fall 0.8% in May.\nU.S. retail sales minus gas and autos fall 0.8% in May.\n\n(June 15) Producer prices climb 6.6% in May on annual basis, largest 12-month increase on record. Producer prices rose at their fastest annual clip in nearly 11 years in May as inflation continued to build in the U.S. economy, the Labor Department reported Tuesday.\nOn a monthly basis, the producer price index for final demand rose 0.8%, ahead of the Dow Jones estimate of 0.6%.\nStock Market\nU.S. stock futures edged higher Tuesday ahead of fresh data that will indicate how much Americans spent in stores, at restaurants and online last month.\nFutures tied to the S&P 500 ticked up 0.1%, indicating that the broad benchmark index is on track to notch its thirtieth record close of the year. Nasdaq-100 futures gained 0.2%, pointing togains in technology stocksafter the opening bell.\nAt 8:38 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 18 points, or 0.05%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 5.5 points, or 0.13%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 24.75 points, or 0.18%.\n\nInvestors expect that stocks will climb through the rest of the year due to easy monetary policies. Many people are also betting thathigher inflation, due to the easing of economic restrictions and supply-chain bottlenecks, will be temporary. Signs that inflation will be elevated for a prolonged period or that theFederal Reserve may retrace its supportcould shake that confidence, money managers said.\nStocks making the biggest moves in the premarket: Vroom, Ping Identity, Sage Therapeutics & more\n1) Vroom(VRM) – Vroom intends to offer $500 million in convertible senior notes due in 2026. The used-vehicle e-commerce platform provider plans to use the proceeds for a variety of corporate purposes as well as investing in or acquiring new technologies. Its shares slid 6.1% in premarket trading.\n2) Ping Identity(PING) – Ping Identity announced a 6 million share common stock offering, in a sale of shares held by investment funds affiliated with Vista Equity Partners. The identity management solutions company will not receive any proceeds from the offering. The stock tumbled 4.2% in premarket action.\n3) Sage Therapeutics(SAGE) – The drugmaker’s shares tanked 17.5% in premarket trading following the release of study results for Sage’s experimental depression drug. The treatment resulted in a statistically significant improvement in symptoms, although it could take up to six weeks to be effective and treatment may be required for months.\n4) Boeing(BA) – The U.S. and European Union announced aresolution of the long-standing disputeover aircraft subsidies involving Boeing and European rival Airbus. The deal suspends World Trade Organization-authorized tariffs for five years, and U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai said it could serve as a model for resolving future disputes.\n5) Exxon Mobil(XOM) – Bank of America reiterated a “buy” rating on the energy giant’s stock, predicting that Exxon Mobil would hike its dividend before the end of the year following cost-cutting measures and a rebound in oil prices.\n6) Spirit Airlines(SAVE) – Spirit Airlines said in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing that leisure demand has continued to improve throughout the second quarter, and that it has seen operating yields strengthen as well. Citi upgraded the stock to “buy” from “neutral” following that update, and shares rallied 2.6% in the premarket.\n7) Fastenal(FAST) – The maker of industrial and construction supplies was downgraded to “underweight” from “equal-weight” at Morgan Stanley, which notes a lull in customer acquisition as well as a stock that is already near an all-time high. The stock slid 2.2% in the premarket.\n8) AstraZeneca(AZN) – AstraZeneca said an experimental monoclonal antibody treatment did not meet its main goal of preventing Covid-19 in patients who had been exposed to the virus. The company also said, however, that its Covid-19 vaccine is 92% effective against the so-called “Delta” variant of the virus.\n9) Cracker Barrel(CBRL) – Cracker Barrel announced a $275 million private offering of convertible senior notes due in 2026. The restaurant chain will use the proceeds to pay debt and for general corporate purposes.\n10) Novavax(NVAX) – Novavax announced positive results from its first study of its Covid-19 vaccine and a flu vaccine administered simultaneously. The study suggested that simultaneous vaccination may be a viable strategy.\n11) Intuit(INTU) – The financial software company revealed in an SEC filing that its QuickBooks online service saw new customer acquisition grow by more than 25% year-over-year for the nine months ended April 30. Intuit shares had hit an all-time high in Monday’s trading.\n12) Vimeo(VMEO) – Vimeo reported that total revenue in May rose 42% from a year ago, with the video services company also seeing average revenue per user up 18%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1556,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167192287,"gmtCreate":1624250849349,"gmtModify":1634008862714,"author":{"id":"3582499726363900","authorId":"3582499726363900","name":"owlee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582499726363900","authorIdStr":"3582499726363900"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Dip and buy","listText":"Dip and buy","text":"Dip and buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167192287","repostId":"1175906479","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175906479","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624242000,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175906479?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-21 10:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Winter Is Coming<blockquote>苹果：冬天来了</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175906479","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share .In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period.</li>  <li>I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).</li>  <li>From the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4dc5052119e6bbc5b693cf7385d8738\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果股价在过去五年中上涨了449%，跑赢了标普500同期102%的涨幅。</li><li>我给予苹果中性评级，公允价值为111.42美元/股（当前价格为131.7美元/股）。</li><li>从技术分析角度来看，股价正遵循上升三角形形态，正向137美元/股的目标价迈进。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Michael M.Santiago/Getty Images新闻公司概述</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司(AAPL)股价在过去五年中上涨了449%，跑赢了标普500同期102%的涨幅。由基本面支持的出色回报。我特别想从后者开始分析。</blockquote></p><p> Over the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的二十年里，苹果成功的主要驱动力一直是iPhone。2016年，iPhone占总销量的63%。这对苹果来说是个问题，他们知道这一点。这个问题的存在主要有两个因素：第一，智能手机业务已经成熟（增长率较低）；其次，它过去是（现在也是）一个竞争激烈的行业。然而，苹果拥有其他竞争对手所没有的东西，即庞大的iPhone用户群（例如，这允许销售更多服务）。多年来，苹果一直能够有效地实现其收入来源多元化，目前的结构如下所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4602be0c6fa92191baf04a7496c4e024\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Let's now take a look at each of these segments:</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们来看看这些部分：</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. iPhone</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.iPhone</b></blockquote></p><p> From 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>自2016年至2020年，iPhone分部的复合年增长率为0.20%，并由佔总销售额的63.4%（2016年）变为51%（“TTM”）。我在下面展示了iPhone细分市场在过去5年（2016-TTM）的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/916b48499e3e3ed2c0c167af3ba62bdb\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告的数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，在具有5G功能的新iPhone12系列以及来自中国的有趣数据的推动下，iPhone细分市场的TTM增长率为18.5%。我相信向5G的过渡将是该细分市场增长的主要驱动力。我想以这种方式报告第二季度收益看涨期权的一段文字记录。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.</i>  <b>2. iPad</b></p><p><blockquote><i>在企业市场，许多行业的客户都在加速采用iPhone 12和5G，将其作为未来业务的关键平台。例如，达美航空正在将iPhone 12和5G连接交给空乘人员，以便他们能够在航空旅行反弹时提供尽可能最好的乘客服务。英国的Openreach已开始为数万名现场工程师配备iPhone 12加快向全国家庭部署宽带服务。科罗拉多州的一家大型医疗保健提供商UCHealth能够将每位患者的疫苗接种时间从3分钟减少到30秒，这主要是通过从PC工作站转移到iPhone。这使得他们的工作人员能够快速扫描和登记新患者，并大大提高他们的日常疫苗接种能力。</i><b>2.iPad</b></blockquote></p><p> As it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>与过去一样，iPad细分市场占总销售额的百分比或多或少是一个恒定的数字，2016年为9.6%，而TTM为9.1%。从2016年到2020年，iPad细分市场的CAGR增长率为3.56%（整体趋势有所改善）。我在下面展示了iPad细分市场在过去5年（2016-TTM）的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6faf9ddb8d29d662fcaa46bbda862f48\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).</p><p><blockquote>TTM数据向我们展示了一幅有趣的画面，iPad细分市场的TTM增长率为24.9%，这是由三个因素推动的：M1芯片、新的5G功能以及我们都在家的事实。我看到了很多实现新一代iPads的方法。不过，我也不得不承认，还有一个大玩家在同一个海里游泳，那就是新的2-1笔记本电脑。对于那些希望两全其美的人来说，新的2-1笔记本电脑是一个非常有趣的解决方案。在最后一种观点中，iPad细分市场占总销售额的比例可能较低，约为7.8%（目前为9.1%）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Mac</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.三月</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> From 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>从2016年到2020年，Mac细分市场的CAGR增长率为5.81%，与iPad细分市场一样，Mac细分市场在2016年占总销售额的比例为10.6%，而TTM为10.4%。我在下面介绍了过去5年（2016-TTM）Mac细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2494d89c1d5cd70a4cf0c5fb31fb20a\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.</p><p><blockquote>采用M1芯片的新一代Mac似乎受到了客户的赞赏，事实上，今年迄今为止，Mac细分市场的TTM增长率为18.4%。我亲自尝试了这款新一代MAC电脑，我不得不承认，苹果非常知道如何取悦顾客。个人电脑是一个竞争激烈的市场，即使我喜欢并使用苹果产品，我也更喜欢与联想合作。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&amp;A)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.可穿戴设备、家居和配件（WH&amp;A）</b></blockquote></p><p> The Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&amp;A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&amp;A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>可穿戴设备、家居和配件部门包括AirPods、苹果电视、苹果手表、Beats产品、HomePod等的销售。这就是有趣的地方。从2016年到2020年，WH&amp;A分部的复合年增长率为28.78%，从2016年仅占总销售额的5.2%变为占TTM的10.8%。我在下面列出了过去5年（2016-TTM）WH&amp;A细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e16432a1ae66aa9dda7a4f969a9cfcdf\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The WH&amp;A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).</p><p><blockquote>在苹果手表系列6和苹果手表SE的强劲表现的推动下，WH&amp;A细分市场的TTM增长率为14.7%。在苹果进入医疗保健市场的推动下，苹果观察在未来几年可能会有一个非常光明的未来。事实上，它可以用来监测人的健康状况。想象一下，你即将心脏病发作，你的苹果手表可能会看涨期权一辆救护车并挽救你的生命，不错不是吗？最后，我们不要忘记苹果电视4K和最新配件AirTag的推出（我没有看到后者的市场，但我可能是错的）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Services</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5.服务</b></blockquote></p><p> Services include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>服务包括公司广告、AppleCare、数字内容和其他服务的销售。于二零一六年至二零二零年，服务分部的复合年增长率为21.9%，并由二零一六年佔总销售额的11.3%变为佔TTM的18.6%。我在下面列出了过去5年（2016-TTM）服务部门的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af34eb1ba8fffd690a75318f8cf805f7\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> To date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，服务部门的TTM增长率为12.3%。这一增长是由应用商店、云服务、音乐、广告和支付服务推动的。苹果TV+、苹果街机、苹果新闻+和苹果卡等新服务也开始为整体服务增长做出贡献，并继续增加用户、内容和功能。我相信，未来，服务板块将是公司的主导板块。下面我展示了我从第四季度收益看涨期权中推断出来的有趣部分。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>First, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.</i>  <b>Company Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><i>首先，我们的安装基础持续增长，并且在每个主要产品类别中都处于历史最高水平。其次，我们数字内容商店上的交易账户和付费账户数量在9月份季度均创下历史新高，每个地理区域的付费账户均以两位数增长。第三，付费订阅量环比增长超过3500万，目前我们平台上的服务付费订阅量超过5.85亿，比一年前增加了1.35亿。凭借这一势头，我们非常有信心在2020年底前达到并超过6亿付费订阅的增加目标。</i><b>公司分析</b></blockquote></p><p> I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&amp;D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&amp;D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&amp;D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).</p><p><blockquote>我给予苹果中性评级，公允价值为111.42美元/股（当前价格为131.7美元/股）。公允价值是算法调整后的价值，考虑了不同的因素，基本面和技术面（如DCF公允价值、动量等）。），因此它考虑了市场先生的情绪。同时，我通过DCF模型获得的公允价值等于105.68美元/股。现在，在显示结果之前，用作基数的数字是过去12个月的数字。此外，我还重述了财务数据，因为我将可摊销期限为3年的研发费用资本化。我不认为就苹果而言，研发是一项运营费用，因此，我将其视为资本支出。考虑到研发，以下指标已被重述（所有数字均以百万美元为单位）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7a2222a8e8b9088e619b0b971193a1f\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is very important to capitalize on R&amp;D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.</p><p><blockquote>利用研发费用非常重要，如果我们不这样做，我们只是将公司最大的资产保留在资产负债表之外。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Discounted Cash Flow Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>折现现金流量模型</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们转向贴现现金流估值部分。下面，你可以看到我所做的相对假设的结果。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2da633d931f51b493d897d9c87ecee5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Now, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:</p><p><blockquote>现在，这次我还提出了三种可能的情况以及我的估计：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Base Case Scenario</i>: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.</li>  <li><i>Best Case Scenario</i>: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.</li>  <li><i>Worst Case Scenario</i>: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.</li> </ul> Finally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>基本情况</i>：上面的DCF模型代表了我的基本情况。在基本情况下，我假设增长的驱动力是：iPhone细分市场（由5G过渡驱动）、服务细分市场（由更广泛的客户群驱动）和新的M1 MAC细分市场。在这种情况下，我假设Y1增长率为12%，Y2-Y5复合年增长率为7.1%，Y10的目标营业利润率为27%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为105.68美元/股。</li><li><i>最佳情况</i>：生意火爆！在最好的情况下，我再次将我在基本情况中描述的主要驱动因素视为主要驱动因素，但是，此外，我还看到中国的市场渗透率更高。在过去的5年里，我们可以观察到中国的销售额呈下降趋势，然而，今年的销售额增长了39.7%（iPhone细分市场大幅增长）。在这种情况下，我假设Y1增长率为14%，Y2-Y5复合年增长率为9.1%，Y10的目标营业利润率为30%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为130.32美元/股。</li><li><i>最坏的情况</i>：嗯，这是一个我想看涨期权为“成熟公司场景”的场景。在这种情况下，我认为苹果的增长略高于经济增长率，因此，我假设Y1增长率为10%，Y2-Y5复合年增长率为3.1%，Y10的目标营业利润率为25%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为81.03美元/股。</li></ul>最后，对于每种情况，我都看到苹果凭借其苹果手表进入医疗保健市场。正如你可以想象的那样，我在每种情况下分配了不同的市场渗透可能性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sensitivity Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>敏感性分析</b></blockquote></p><p> Moreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我还想提供基本情况的敏感性分析。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95f00eba768526d07d68fd846ecf998d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Technical Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术分析</b></blockquote></p><p> From the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).</p><p><blockquote>从技术分析的角度来看，我还没有看到任何问题。股价处于看涨模式，目前处于上升三角形形态。截至目前，股价正在遵循其模式，正朝着137美元/股或D点的目标价迈进，在那里它可能会反弹并回到E点。如果这种情况发生，E点通常是股价再次反弹的点，从该点开始，股票走高（这只是一个技术分析假设，照原样）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecf3e5f45dcb5e30b092c02bbf94d6f9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:TradingView.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&amp;P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.</p><p><blockquote>苹果是一家成熟的公司，能够在未来几年发现问题并解决它。通过查看在基本情况下计算的公允价值，我们可以认为该股票目前被高估，但没有高估那么多。对于什么关注风险，最好情况和最坏情况之间的差异可以用作风险的代理。考虑到这一点，我认为没有什么理由恐慌，但是，我确实看到市场即将出现调整。许多技术和基本面指标都向我表明，市场目前过于沉重（即使标准普尔500指数可能会走高，也许会在4400点区域）。总而言之，我不认为要平仓我的整个苹果头寸，但是，一旦达到我的价格目标，我会平仓其中的60%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Winter Is Coming<blockquote>苹果：冬天来了</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Winter Is Coming<blockquote>苹果：冬天来了</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-21 10:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period.</li>  <li>I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).</li>  <li>From the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4dc5052119e6bbc5b693cf7385d8738\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果股价在过去五年中上涨了449%，跑赢了标普500同期102%的涨幅。</li><li>我给予苹果中性评级，公允价值为111.42美元/股（当前价格为131.7美元/股）。</li><li>从技术分析角度来看，股价正遵循上升三角形形态，正向137美元/股的目标价迈进。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Michael M.Santiago/Getty Images新闻公司概述</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司(AAPL)股价在过去五年中上涨了449%，跑赢了标普500同期102%的涨幅。由基本面支持的出色回报。我特别想从后者开始分析。</blockquote></p><p> Over the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的二十年里，苹果成功的主要驱动力一直是iPhone。2016年，iPhone占总销量的63%。这对苹果来说是个问题，他们知道这一点。这个问题的存在主要有两个因素：第一，智能手机业务已经成熟（增长率较低）；其次，它过去是（现在也是）一个竞争激烈的行业。然而，苹果拥有其他竞争对手所没有的东西，即庞大的iPhone用户群（例如，这允许销售更多服务）。多年来，苹果一直能够有效地实现其收入来源多元化，目前的结构如下所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4602be0c6fa92191baf04a7496c4e024\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Let's now take a look at each of these segments:</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们来看看这些部分：</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. iPhone</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.iPhone</b></blockquote></p><p> From 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>自2016年至2020年，iPhone分部的复合年增长率为0.20%，并由佔总销售额的63.4%（2016年）变为51%（“TTM”）。我在下面展示了iPhone细分市场在过去5年（2016-TTM）的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/916b48499e3e3ed2c0c167af3ba62bdb\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告的数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，在具有5G功能的新iPhone12系列以及来自中国的有趣数据的推动下，iPhone细分市场的TTM增长率为18.5%。我相信向5G的过渡将是该细分市场增长的主要驱动力。我想以这种方式报告第二季度收益看涨期权的一段文字记录。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.</i>  <b>2. iPad</b></p><p><blockquote><i>在企业市场，许多行业的客户都在加速采用iPhone 12和5G，将其作为未来业务的关键平台。例如，达美航空正在将iPhone 12和5G连接交给空乘人员，以便他们能够在航空旅行反弹时提供尽可能最好的乘客服务。英国的Openreach已开始为数万名现场工程师配备iPhone 12加快向全国家庭部署宽带服务。科罗拉多州的一家大型医疗保健提供商UCHealth能够将每位患者的疫苗接种时间从3分钟减少到30秒，这主要是通过从PC工作站转移到iPhone。这使得他们的工作人员能够快速扫描和登记新患者，并大大提高他们的日常疫苗接种能力。</i><b>2.iPad</b></blockquote></p><p> As it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>与过去一样，iPad细分市场占总销售额的百分比或多或少是一个恒定的数字，2016年为9.6%，而TTM为9.1%。从2016年到2020年，iPad细分市场的CAGR增长率为3.56%（整体趋势有所改善）。我在下面展示了iPad细分市场在过去5年（2016-TTM）的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6faf9ddb8d29d662fcaa46bbda862f48\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).</p><p><blockquote>TTM数据向我们展示了一幅有趣的画面，iPad细分市场的TTM增长率为24.9%，这是由三个因素推动的：M1芯片、新的5G功能以及我们都在家的事实。我看到了很多实现新一代iPads的方法。不过，我也不得不承认，还有一个大玩家在同一个海里游泳，那就是新的2-1笔记本电脑。对于那些希望两全其美的人来说，新的2-1笔记本电脑是一个非常有趣的解决方案。在最后一种观点中，iPad细分市场占总销售额的比例可能较低，约为7.8%（目前为9.1%）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Mac</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.三月</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> From 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>从2016年到2020年，Mac细分市场的CAGR增长率为5.81%，与iPad细分市场一样，Mac细分市场在2016年占总销售额的比例为10.6%，而TTM为10.4%。我在下面介绍了过去5年（2016-TTM）Mac细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2494d89c1d5cd70a4cf0c5fb31fb20a\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.</p><p><blockquote>采用M1芯片的新一代Mac似乎受到了客户的赞赏，事实上，今年迄今为止，Mac细分市场的TTM增长率为18.4%。我亲自尝试了这款新一代MAC电脑，我不得不承认，苹果非常知道如何取悦顾客。个人电脑是一个竞争激烈的市场，即使我喜欢并使用苹果产品，我也更喜欢与联想合作。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&amp;A)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.可穿戴设备、家居和配件（WH&amp;A）</b></blockquote></p><p> The Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&amp;A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&amp;A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>可穿戴设备、家居和配件部门包括AirPods、苹果电视、苹果手表、Beats产品、HomePod等的销售。这就是有趣的地方。从2016年到2020年，WH&amp;A分部的复合年增长率为28.78%，从2016年仅占总销售额的5.2%变为占TTM的10.8%。我在下面列出了过去5年（2016-TTM）WH&amp;A细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e16432a1ae66aa9dda7a4f969a9cfcdf\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The WH&amp;A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).</p><p><blockquote>在苹果手表系列6和苹果手表SE的强劲表现的推动下，WH&amp;A细分市场的TTM增长率为14.7%。在苹果进入医疗保健市场的推动下，苹果观察在未来几年可能会有一个非常光明的未来。事实上，它可以用来监测人的健康状况。想象一下，你即将心脏病发作，你的苹果手表可能会看涨期权一辆救护车并挽救你的生命，不错不是吗？最后，我们不要忘记苹果电视4K和最新配件AirTag的推出（我没有看到后者的市场，但我可能是错的）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Services</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5.服务</b></blockquote></p><p> Services include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>服务包括公司广告、AppleCare、数字内容和其他服务的销售。于二零一六年至二零二零年，服务分部的复合年增长率为21.9%，并由二零一六年佔总销售额的11.3%变为佔TTM的18.6%。我在下面列出了过去5年（2016-TTM）服务部门的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af34eb1ba8fffd690a75318f8cf805f7\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> To date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，服务部门的TTM增长率为12.3%。这一增长是由应用商店、云服务、音乐、广告和支付服务推动的。苹果TV+、苹果街机、苹果新闻+和苹果卡等新服务也开始为整体服务增长做出贡献，并继续增加用户、内容和功能。我相信，未来，服务板块将是公司的主导板块。下面我展示了我从第四季度收益看涨期权中推断出来的有趣部分。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>First, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.</i>  <b>Company Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><i>首先，我们的安装基础持续增长，并且在每个主要产品类别中都处于历史最高水平。其次，我们数字内容商店上的交易账户和付费账户数量在9月份季度均创下历史新高，每个地理区域的付费账户均以两位数增长。第三，付费订阅量环比增长超过3500万，目前我们平台上的服务付费订阅量超过5.85亿，比一年前增加了1.35亿。凭借这一势头，我们非常有信心在2020年底前达到并超过6亿付费订阅的增加目标。</i><b>公司分析</b></blockquote></p><p> I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&amp;D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&amp;D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&amp;D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).</p><p><blockquote>我给予苹果中性评级，公允价值为111.42美元/股（当前价格为131.7美元/股）。公允价值是算法调整后的价值，考虑了不同的因素，基本面和技术面（如DCF公允价值、动量等）。），因此它考虑了市场先生的情绪。同时，我通过DCF模型获得的公允价值等于105.68美元/股。现在，在显示结果之前，用作基数的数字是过去12个月的数字。此外，我还重述了财务数据，因为我将可摊销期限为3年的研发费用资本化。我不认为就苹果而言，研发是一项运营费用，因此，我将其视为资本支出。考虑到研发，以下指标已被重述（所有数字均以百万美元为单位）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7a2222a8e8b9088e619b0b971193a1f\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is very important to capitalize on R&amp;D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.</p><p><blockquote>利用研发费用非常重要，如果我们不这样做，我们只是将公司最大的资产保留在资产负债表之外。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Discounted Cash Flow Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>折现现金流量模型</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们转向贴现现金流估值部分。下面，你可以看到我所做的相对假设的结果。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2da633d931f51b493d897d9c87ecee5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Now, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:</p><p><blockquote>现在，这次我还提出了三种可能的情况以及我的估计：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Base Case Scenario</i>: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.</li>  <li><i>Best Case Scenario</i>: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.</li>  <li><i>Worst Case Scenario</i>: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.</li> </ul> Finally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>基本情况</i>：上面的DCF模型代表了我的基本情况。在基本情况下，我假设增长的驱动力是：iPhone细分市场（由5G过渡驱动）、服务细分市场（由更广泛的客户群驱动）和新的M1 MAC细分市场。在这种情况下，我假设Y1增长率为12%，Y2-Y5复合年增长率为7.1%，Y10的目标营业利润率为27%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为105.68美元/股。</li><li><i>最佳情况</i>：生意火爆！在最好的情况下，我再次将我在基本情况中描述的主要驱动因素视为主要驱动因素，但是，此外，我还看到中国的市场渗透率更高。在过去的5年里，我们可以观察到中国的销售额呈下降趋势，然而，今年的销售额增长了39.7%（iPhone细分市场大幅增长）。在这种情况下，我假设Y1增长率为14%，Y2-Y5复合年增长率为9.1%，Y10的目标营业利润率为30%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为130.32美元/股。</li><li><i>最坏的情况</i>：嗯，这是一个我想看涨期权为“成熟公司场景”的场景。在这种情况下，我认为苹果的增长略高于经济增长率，因此，我假设Y1增长率为10%，Y2-Y5复合年增长率为3.1%，Y10的目标营业利润率为25%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为81.03美元/股。</li></ul>最后，对于每种情况，我都看到苹果凭借其苹果手表进入医疗保健市场。正如你可以想象的那样，我在每种情况下分配了不同的市场渗透可能性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sensitivity Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>敏感性分析</b></blockquote></p><p> Moreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我还想提供基本情况的敏感性分析。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95f00eba768526d07d68fd846ecf998d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Technical Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术分析</b></blockquote></p><p> From the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).</p><p><blockquote>从技术分析的角度来看，我还没有看到任何问题。股价处于看涨模式，目前处于上升三角形形态。截至目前，股价正在遵循其模式，正朝着137美元/股或D点的目标价迈进，在那里它可能会反弹并回到E点。如果这种情况发生，E点通常是股价再次反弹的点，从该点开始，股票走高（这只是一个技术分析假设，照原样）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecf3e5f45dcb5e30b092c02bbf94d6f9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:TradingView.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&amp;P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.</p><p><blockquote>苹果是一家成熟的公司，能够在未来几年发现问题并解决它。通过查看在基本情况下计算的公允价值，我们可以认为该股票目前被高估，但没有高估那么多。对于什么关注风险，最好情况和最坏情况之间的差异可以用作风险的代理。考虑到这一点，我认为没有什么理由恐慌，但是，我确实看到市场即将出现调整。许多技术和基本面指标都向我表明，市场目前过于沉重（即使标准普尔500指数可能会走高，也许会在4400点区域）。总而言之，我不认为要平仓我的整个苹果头寸，但是，一旦达到我的价格目标，我会平仓其中的60%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175906479","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).\nFrom the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.\n\nMichael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview\nApple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.\nOver the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nLet's now take a look at each of these segments:\n1. iPhone\nFrom 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report\nSo far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.\n\nIn the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.\n\n2. iPad\nAs it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).\n3. Mac\nFrom 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.\n4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&A)\nThe Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe WH&A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).\n5. Services\nServices include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nTo date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.\n\nFirst, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.\n\nCompany Analysis\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nIt is very important to capitalize on R&D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.\nDiscounted Cash Flow Model\nNow, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nNow, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:\n\nBase Case Scenario: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.\nBest Case Scenario: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.\nWorst Case Scenario: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.\n\nFinally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.\nSensitivity Analysis\nMoreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nTechnical Analysis\nFrom the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).\nSource:TradingView.com\nFinal Thoughts\nApple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1626,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166829929,"gmtCreate":1624002863761,"gmtModify":1634024286107,"author":{"id":"3582499726363900","authorId":"3582499726363900","name":"owlee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582499726363900","authorIdStr":"3582499726363900"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good buy","listText":"Good buy","text":"Good buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166829929","repostId":"1198149770","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198149770","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623974643,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198149770?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 08:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Adobe Q2 Earnings Beat Expectations<blockquote>Adobe第二季度盈利超出预期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198149770","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Adobe stock is trading higher late Thursday after the creative-software company posted better-than-e","content":"<p>Adobe stock is trading higher late Thursday after the creative-software company posted better-than-expected results for its fiscal second quarter ended June 4.</p><p><blockquote>Adobe股价周四晚间走高，此前这家创意软件公司公布了截至6月4日的第二财季业绩好于预期。</blockquote></p><p> For the quarter, Adobe (ticker: ADBE) reported revenue of $3.84 billion, up 23% from a year ago, and ahead of the company’s forecast of $3.72 billion. Non-GAAP profits were $3.03 a share, ahead of the company’s projection of $2.81 a share. Under generally accepted accounting principles, Adobe earned $2.32 a share.</p><p><blockquote>Adobe（股票代码：ADBE）报告本季度营收为38.4亿美元，同比增长23%，高于该公司预期的37.2亿美元。非GAAP利润为每股3.03美元，高于公司预期的每股2.81美元。根据公认会计原则，Adobe每股盈利2.32美元。</blockquote></p><p> Adobe stock rose 2.7%&nbsp;to $566&nbsp;in extended trading.</p><p><blockquote>Adobe股价在盘后交易中上涨2.7%至566美元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28b7cdf0a510d12cc43d7e44330be797\" tg-width=\"1302\" tg-height=\"663\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Adobe’s results were above expectations in every segment. Digital Media revenue was $2.79 billion, up 25%, and four points better than the company’s guidance. That includes creative revenue of $2.32 billion, up 24%, and document cloud revenue of $496 million, up 30%.</p><p><blockquote>Adobe在每个领域的业绩都超出了预期。数字媒体收入为27.9亿美元，增长25%，比公司指引高出4个百分点。其中创意收入23.2亿美元，增长24%，文档云收入4.96亿美元，增长30%。</blockquote></p><p> Digital Experience segment revenue was $938 million, up 21%, and three points better than the company’s target for 18% growth.</p><p><blockquote>数字体验部门收入为9.38亿美元，增长21%，比公司18%增长的目标高出3个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> The company also said it bought back about 2.1 million shares in the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还表示，本季度回购了约210万股股票。</blockquote></p><p> For the fiscal third quarter, Adobe sees revenue of $3.88 billion, slightly higher than the Street consensus forecast of $3.83 billion, with non-GAAP profits of $3 a share, above the Street consensus estimate for $2.89 a share. The company sees growth in the quarter of 21% in the digital experience segment, and 25% in digital experience.</p><p><blockquote>Adobe预计第三财季营收为38.8亿美元，略高于华尔街普遍预期的38.3亿美元，非GAAP每股利润为3美元，高于华尔街普遍预期的每股2.89美元。该公司预计本季度数字体验领域增长21%，数字体验领域增长25%。</blockquote></p><p> “Adobe had an outstanding second quarter as Creative Cloud, Document Cloud and Experience Cloud continue to transform work, learn and play in a digital-first world,” Adobe CEO Shantanu Narayen said in a statement.</p><p><blockquote>Adobe首席执行官Shantanu Narayen在一份声明中表示：“随着Creative Cloud、Document Cloud和Experience Cloud继续改变数字优先世界中的工作、学习和娱乐，Adobe第二季度表现出色。”</blockquote></p><p> Chief Financial Officer John Murphy added in a statement that “the large market opportunity and momentum we are seeing across our creative, document and customer experience management businesses position us well to deliver another record year.”</p><p><blockquote>首席财务官约翰·墨菲(John Murphy)在一份声明中补充道：“我们在创意、文档和客户体验管理业务中看到的巨大市场机会和势头使我们能够再创历史新高。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Adobe Q2 Earnings Beat Expectations<blockquote>Adobe第二季度盈利超出预期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAdobe Q2 Earnings Beat Expectations<blockquote>Adobe第二季度盈利超出预期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-18 08:04</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Adobe stock is trading higher late Thursday after the creative-software company posted better-than-expected results for its fiscal second quarter ended June 4.</p><p><blockquote>Adobe股价周四晚间走高，此前这家创意软件公司公布了截至6月4日的第二财季业绩好于预期。</blockquote></p><p> For the quarter, Adobe (ticker: ADBE) reported revenue of $3.84 billion, up 23% from a year ago, and ahead of the company’s forecast of $3.72 billion. Non-GAAP profits were $3.03 a share, ahead of the company’s projection of $2.81 a share. Under generally accepted accounting principles, Adobe earned $2.32 a share.</p><p><blockquote>Adobe（股票代码：ADBE）报告本季度营收为38.4亿美元，同比增长23%，高于该公司预期的37.2亿美元。非GAAP利润为每股3.03美元，高于公司预期的每股2.81美元。根据公认会计原则，Adobe每股盈利2.32美元。</blockquote></p><p> Adobe stock rose 2.7%&nbsp;to $566&nbsp;in extended trading.</p><p><blockquote>Adobe股价在盘后交易中上涨2.7%至566美元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28b7cdf0a510d12cc43d7e44330be797\" tg-width=\"1302\" tg-height=\"663\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Adobe’s results were above expectations in every segment. Digital Media revenue was $2.79 billion, up 25%, and four points better than the company’s guidance. That includes creative revenue of $2.32 billion, up 24%, and document cloud revenue of $496 million, up 30%.</p><p><blockquote>Adobe在每个领域的业绩都超出了预期。数字媒体收入为27.9亿美元，增长25%，比公司指引高出4个百分点。其中创意收入23.2亿美元，增长24%，文档云收入4.96亿美元，增长30%。</blockquote></p><p> Digital Experience segment revenue was $938 million, up 21%, and three points better than the company’s target for 18% growth.</p><p><blockquote>数字体验部门收入为9.38亿美元，增长21%，比公司18%增长的目标高出3个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> The company also said it bought back about 2.1 million shares in the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还表示，本季度回购了约210万股股票。</blockquote></p><p> For the fiscal third quarter, Adobe sees revenue of $3.88 billion, slightly higher than the Street consensus forecast of $3.83 billion, with non-GAAP profits of $3 a share, above the Street consensus estimate for $2.89 a share. The company sees growth in the quarter of 21% in the digital experience segment, and 25% in digital experience.</p><p><blockquote>Adobe预计第三财季营收为38.8亿美元，略高于华尔街普遍预期的38.3亿美元，非GAAP每股利润为3美元，高于华尔街普遍预期的每股2.89美元。该公司预计本季度数字体验领域增长21%，数字体验领域增长25%。</blockquote></p><p> “Adobe had an outstanding second quarter as Creative Cloud, Document Cloud and Experience Cloud continue to transform work, learn and play in a digital-first world,” Adobe CEO Shantanu Narayen said in a statement.</p><p><blockquote>Adobe首席执行官Shantanu Narayen在一份声明中表示：“随着Creative Cloud、Document Cloud和Experience Cloud继续改变数字优先世界中的工作、学习和娱乐，Adobe第二季度表现出色。”</blockquote></p><p> Chief Financial Officer John Murphy added in a statement that “the large market opportunity and momentum we are seeing across our creative, document and customer experience management businesses position us well to deliver another record year.”</p><p><blockquote>首席财务官约翰·墨菲(John Murphy)在一份声明中补充道：“我们在创意、文档和客户体验管理业务中看到的巨大市场机会和势头使我们能够再创历史新高。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ADBE":"Adobe"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198149770","content_text":"Adobe stock is trading higher late Thursday after the creative-software company posted better-than-expected results for its fiscal second quarter ended June 4.\nFor the quarter, Adobe (ticker: ADBE) reported revenue of $3.84 billion, up 23% from a year ago, and ahead of the company’s forecast of $3.72 billion. Non-GAAP profits were $3.03 a share, ahead of the company’s projection of $2.81 a share. Under generally accepted accounting principles, Adobe earned $2.32 a share.\nAdobe stock rose 2.7% to $566 in extended trading.\n\nAdobe’s results were above expectations in every segment. Digital Media revenue was $2.79 billion, up 25%, and four points better than the company’s guidance. That includes creative revenue of $2.32 billion, up 24%, and document cloud revenue of $496 million, up 30%.\nDigital Experience segment revenue was $938 million, up 21%, and three points better than the company’s target for 18% growth.\nThe company also said it bought back about 2.1 million shares in the quarter.\nFor the fiscal third quarter, Adobe sees revenue of $3.88 billion, slightly higher than the Street consensus forecast of $3.83 billion, with non-GAAP profits of $3 a share, above the Street consensus estimate for $2.89 a share. The company sees growth in the quarter of 21% in the digital experience segment, and 25% in digital experience.\n“Adobe had an outstanding second quarter as Creative Cloud, Document Cloud and Experience Cloud continue to transform work, learn and play in a digital-first world,” Adobe CEO Shantanu Narayen said in a statement.\nChief Financial Officer John Murphy added in a statement that “the large market opportunity and momentum we are seeing across our creative, document and customer experience management businesses position us well to deliver another record year.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ADBE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1576,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":165513893,"gmtCreate":1624151010012,"gmtModify":1634010296705,"author":{"id":"3582499726363900","authorId":"3582499726363900","name":"owlee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582499726363900","authorIdStr":"3582499726363900"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Woohoo","listText":"Woohoo","text":"Woohoo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/165513893","repostId":"1111305468","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1620,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":119550798,"gmtCreate":1622556040214,"gmtModify":1634100513317,"author":{"id":"3582499726363900","authorId":"3582499726363900","name":"owlee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582499726363900","authorIdStr":"3582499726363900"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy?","listText":"Buy?","text":"Buy?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/119550798","repostId":"2140618864","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1718,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}