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Evergrande Stock Sinks Below Liquidation Level<blockquote>恒大股价跌破平仓位</blockquote>

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15:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Evergrande Stock Sinks Below Liquidation Level<blockquote>恒大股价跌破平仓位</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134513535","media":"zerohedge","summary":"The steepening rout in China Evergrande’s shares have sent them far below the value of its assets, s","content":"<p>The&nbsp;steepening rout&nbsp;in China Evergrande’s shares have sent them far below the value of its assets, showing how pessimistic investors are about the developer’s ability to generate cash.</p><p><blockquote>中国恒大股价的急剧下跌使其远低于其资产价值，这表明投资者对该开发商产生现金的能力有多么悲观。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Evergrande shares trade at just 62% of book value following Monday’s plunge</b>, the lowest-ever valuation in data compiled by Bloomberg going back to its IPO in 2009. The wide deviation from its market value suggests shareholders are pricing in a significant decline in the assets’ earnings power. In terms of dollar amounts, its shares have lost $15 billion in value since this year’s January high.</p><p><blockquote><b>周一暴跌后，恒大股价仅为账面价值的62%</b>这是彭博社编制的自2009年IPO以来的最低估值。与其市值的大幅偏离表明股东正在消化该资产盈利能力的大幅下降。就美元金额而言，自今年1月高点以来，其股价已损失150亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The collapse in the valuation of the shares is a problem for a heavily indebted company with narrowing options for raising funds. It’s not just its own shares: subsidiary Evergrande Property Services has lost about $17 billion in value since its February high, while Evergrande New Energy Vehicle is down more than $60 billion in the period. Evergrande controls more than 60% of both firms. The value of Hengten Networks -- a Hong Kong-listed internet services provider in which Evergrande has a 38% stake -- has dropped about $15 billion.</p><p><blockquote>对于一家负债累累、融资选择不断缩小的公司来说，股价暴跌是一个问题。这不仅仅是它自己的股票：子公司恒大物业服务自2月份高点以来已损失约170亿美元，而恒大新能源汽车在此期间下跌了超过600亿美元。恒大控制着两家公司60%以上的股份。恒腾网络是一家在香港上市的互联网服务提供商，恒大持有该公司38%的股份，其价值已下跌约150亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The company’s access to freely available cash is also shrinking. After the shares plunged 16% on Monday following the&nbsp;freezing&nbsp;of a bank deposit, a city in Hunan province&nbsp;halted&nbsp;sales at two of the company’s residential projects, alleging the developer didn’t properly handle funds. The suspension will last until Oct. 13 and Evergrande can’t use funds currently deposited in supervised bank accounts, according to a statement.</p><p><blockquote>该公司获得免费现金的机会也在减少。周一，由于银行存款被冻结，该公司股价暴跌16%，湖南省一个城市停止了该公司两个住宅项目的销售，指控开发商没有妥善处理资金。一份声明称，暂停将持续到10月13日，恒大不能使用目前存入受监管银行账户的资金。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc7bc1ac90d6e5cc0474f860f876f292\" tg-width=\"1223\" tg-height=\"668\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Evergrande will discuss plans for a special dividend to its shareholders at a board meeting on July 27. The developer is unlikely to fund such a plan with cash, according to CCB International analysts. They predict the most likely outcome would involve a share distribution in one of its units, namely Evergrande New Energy Vehicle, but the value of those shares is fast evaporating.</p><p><blockquote>恒大将在7月27日的董事会会议上讨论向股东派发特别股息的计划。建银国际分析师表示，开发商不太可能用现金为此类计划提供资金。他们预测，最有可能的结果是对其子公司之一恒大新能源汽车进行股份分配，但这些股份的价值正在迅速蒸发。</blockquote></p><p> The company’s bonds are also pricing in a bleak outcome for the developer. Evergrande’s 8.75% dollar bond due 2025 trades at 58.5 cents, Bloomberg-compiled prices show. That’s down from 82.9 cents at the beginning of the year. The company hasn’t sold a single dollar bond in more than 17 months.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的债券也反映了开发商的惨淡结果。彭博社编制的价格显示，恒大2025年到期的8.75%美元债券交易价格为58.5美分。这比年初的82.9美分有所下降。该公司已经超过17个月没有出售过一只美元债券了。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Evergrande Stock Sinks Below Liquidation Level<blockquote>恒大股价跌破平仓位</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEvergrande Stock Sinks Below Liquidation Level<blockquote>恒大股价跌破平仓位</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-20 15:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The&nbsp;steepening rout&nbsp;in China Evergrande’s shares have sent them far below the value of its assets, showing how pessimistic investors are about the developer’s ability to generate cash.</p><p><blockquote>中国恒大股价的急剧下跌使其远低于其资产价值，这表明投资者对该开发商产生现金的能力有多么悲观。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Evergrande shares trade at just 62% of book value following Monday’s plunge</b>, the lowest-ever valuation in data compiled by Bloomberg going back to its IPO in 2009. The wide deviation from its market value suggests shareholders are pricing in a significant decline in the assets’ earnings power. In terms of dollar amounts, its shares have lost $15 billion in value since this year’s January high.</p><p><blockquote><b>周一暴跌后，恒大股价仅为账面价值的62%</b>这是彭博社编制的自2009年IPO以来的最低估值。与其市值的大幅偏离表明股东正在消化该资产盈利能力的大幅下降。就美元金额而言，自今年1月高点以来，其股价已损失150亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The collapse in the valuation of the shares is a problem for a heavily indebted company with narrowing options for raising funds. It’s not just its own shares: subsidiary Evergrande Property Services has lost about $17 billion in value since its February high, while Evergrande New Energy Vehicle is down more than $60 billion in the period. Evergrande controls more than 60% of both firms. The value of Hengten Networks -- a Hong Kong-listed internet services provider in which Evergrande has a 38% stake -- has dropped about $15 billion.</p><p><blockquote>对于一家负债累累、融资选择不断缩小的公司来说，股价暴跌是一个问题。这不仅仅是它自己的股票：子公司恒大物业服务自2月份高点以来已损失约170亿美元，而恒大新能源汽车在此期间下跌了超过600亿美元。恒大控制着两家公司60%以上的股份。恒腾网络是一家在香港上市的互联网服务提供商，恒大持有该公司38%的股份，其价值已下跌约150亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The company’s access to freely available cash is also shrinking. After the shares plunged 16% on Monday following the&nbsp;freezing&nbsp;of a bank deposit, a city in Hunan province&nbsp;halted&nbsp;sales at two of the company’s residential projects, alleging the developer didn’t properly handle funds. The suspension will last until Oct. 13 and Evergrande can’t use funds currently deposited in supervised bank accounts, according to a statement.</p><p><blockquote>该公司获得免费现金的机会也在减少。周一，由于银行存款被冻结，该公司股价暴跌16%，湖南省一个城市停止了该公司两个住宅项目的销售，指控开发商没有妥善处理资金。一份声明称，暂停将持续到10月13日，恒大不能使用目前存入受监管银行账户的资金。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc7bc1ac90d6e5cc0474f860f876f292\" tg-width=\"1223\" tg-height=\"668\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Evergrande will discuss plans for a special dividend to its shareholders at a board meeting on July 27. The developer is unlikely to fund such a plan with cash, according to CCB International analysts. They predict the most likely outcome would involve a share distribution in one of its units, namely Evergrande New Energy Vehicle, but the value of those shares is fast evaporating.</p><p><blockquote>恒大将在7月27日的董事会会议上讨论向股东派发特别股息的计划。建银国际分析师表示，开发商不太可能用现金为此类计划提供资金。他们预测，最有可能的结果是对其子公司之一恒大新能源汽车进行股份分配，但这些股份的价值正在迅速蒸发。</blockquote></p><p> The company’s bonds are also pricing in a bleak outcome for the developer. Evergrande’s 8.75% dollar bond due 2025 trades at 58.5 cents, Bloomberg-compiled prices show. That’s down from 82.9 cents at the beginning of the year. The company hasn’t sold a single dollar bond in more than 17 months.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的债券也反映了开发商的惨淡结果。彭博社编制的价格显示，恒大2025年到期的8.75%美元债券交易价格为58.5美分。这比年初的82.9美分有所下降。该公司已经超过17个月没有出售过一只美元债券了。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/evergrande-stock-sinks-below-liquidation-level\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"03333":"中国恒大"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/evergrande-stock-sinks-below-liquidation-level","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1134513535","content_text":"The steepening rout in China Evergrande’s shares have sent them far below the value of its assets, showing how pessimistic investors are about the developer’s ability to generate cash.\nEvergrande shares trade at just 62% of book value following Monday’s plunge, the lowest-ever valuation in data compiled by Bloomberg going back to its IPO in 2009. The wide deviation from its market value suggests shareholders are pricing in a significant decline in the assets’ earnings power. In terms of dollar amounts, its shares have lost $15 billion in value since this year’s January high.\nThe collapse in the valuation of the shares is a problem for a heavily indebted company with narrowing options for raising funds. It’s not just its own shares: subsidiary Evergrande Property Services has lost about $17 billion in value since its February high, while Evergrande New Energy Vehicle is down more than $60 billion in the period. Evergrande controls more than 60% of both firms. The value of Hengten Networks -- a Hong Kong-listed internet services provider in which Evergrande has a 38% stake -- has dropped about $15 billion.\nThe company’s access to freely available cash is also shrinking. After the shares plunged 16% on Monday following the freezing of a bank deposit, a city in Hunan province halted sales at two of the company’s residential projects, alleging the developer didn’t properly handle funds. The suspension will last until Oct. 13 and Evergrande can’t use funds currently deposited in supervised bank accounts, according to a statement.\nEvergrande will discuss plans for a special dividend to its shareholders at a board meeting on July 27. The developer is unlikely to fund such a plan with cash, according to CCB International analysts. They predict the most likely outcome would involve a share distribution in one of its units, namely Evergrande New Energy Vehicle, but the value of those shares is fast evaporating.\nThe company’s bonds are also pricing in a bleak outcome for the developer. Evergrande’s 8.75% dollar bond due 2025 trades at 58.5 cents, Bloomberg-compiled prices show. That’s down from 82.9 cents at the beginning of the year. The company hasn’t sold a single dollar bond in more than 17 months.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"EGRNY":0.9,"03333":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1816,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173573713,"gmtCreate":1626675008532,"gmtModify":1631887979302,"author":{"id":"3582441430299393","authorId":"3582441430299393","name":"TerranceYee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bad1cb6d60af593e8e18243a352e839e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582441430299393","idStr":"3582441430299393"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/173573713","repostId":"1111084715","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2139,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173070577,"gmtCreate":1626591056599,"gmtModify":1631887979313,"author":{"id":"3582441430299393","authorId":"3582441430299393","name":"TerranceYee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bad1cb6d60af593e8e18243a352e839e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582441430299393","idStr":"3582441430299393"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/173070577","repostId":"1139907709","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1139907709","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626568617,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1139907709?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-18 08:36","market":"sh","language":"en","title":"Wall Street Crime And Punishment: Thomas F. Quinn's Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad World<blockquote>华尔街罪与罚：托马斯·F·奎因的疯狂、疯狂、疯狂、疯狂的世界</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139907709","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Does crime pay?\nIn August 1988, French authorities arrested an American expatriate named Thomas F. Q","content":"<p><div> Does crime pay? In August 1988, French authorities arrested an American expatriate named Thomas F. Quinn for orchestrating a global securities scheme that defrauded investors out of $500 million. As ...</p><p><blockquote><div>犯罪有报酬吗？1988年8月，法国当局逮捕了一位名叫托马斯·F·奎因的美国侨民，罪名是他策划了一项全球证券计划，诈骗投资者5亿美元。作为...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/government/21/07/21990476/wall-street-crime-and-punishment-thomas-f-quinns-mad-mad-mad-mad-world\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/government/21/07/21990476/wall-street-crime-and-punishment-thomas-f-quinns-mad-mad-mad-mad-world\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street Crime And Punishment: Thomas F. Quinn's Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad World<blockquote>华尔街罪与罚：托马斯·F·奎因的疯狂、疯狂、疯狂、疯狂的世界</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street Crime And Punishment: Thomas F. Quinn's Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad World<blockquote>华尔街罪与罚：托马斯·F·奎因的疯狂、疯狂、疯狂、疯狂的世界</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Benzinga</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-18 08:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Does crime pay? In August 1988, French authorities arrested an American expatriate named Thomas F. Quinn for orchestrating a global securities scheme that defrauded investors out of $500 million. As ...</p><p><blockquote><div>犯罪有报酬吗？1988年8月，法国当局逮捕了一位名叫托马斯·F·奎因的美国侨民，罪名是他策划了一项全球证券计划，诈骗投资者5亿美元。作为...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/government/21/07/21990476/wall-street-crime-and-punishment-thomas-f-quinns-mad-mad-mad-mad-world\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/government/21/07/21990476/wall-street-crime-and-punishment-thomas-f-quinns-mad-mad-mad-mad-world\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/government/21/07/21990476/wall-street-crime-and-punishment-thomas-f-quinns-mad-mad-mad-mad-world\">Benzinga</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/government/21/07/21990476/wall-street-crime-and-punishment-thomas-f-quinns-mad-mad-mad-mad-world","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1139907709","content_text":"Does crime pay?\nIn August 1988, French authorities arrested an American expatriate named Thomas F. Quinn for orchestrating a global securities scheme that defrauded investors out of $500 million.\nAs an unapologetic financial miscreant with a lifelong penchant for fraud, the French escapade represented something of a career peak for Quinn, whose flair of swindling took on an astonishing level of organizing that left no corner of the world untouched.\nIllusory Assets For Sale:Thomas Francis Quinn was born in Brooklyn in 1932; his father drove a cement truck and his mother was a housewife who made extra money selling clothing and jewelry from the family’s garage.\nQuinn was an altar boy in his childhood and was the first member of his family to pursue higher education, graduating from St. John’s University Law School and passing the bar in 1962.\nQuinn opted to go into business for himself, starting a brokerage firm in New York called Thomas, Williams & Lee.The main focus of this firm became the promotion of Kent Industries,a company that claimed to own Florida property valued at $2 million.\nThere was a slight problem — Kent Industries didn’t own anything in the Sunshine State, and this inconvenient fact helped to introduce Quinn to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).\nLong story short: Quinn received a lifetime banishment from the SEC in 1966 from doing business with brokers and dealers thanks to what the agency defined as his “flagrant fraudulent practices” related to the Kent Industries assets, which the regulator considered to be “almost completely illusory.”\nThe U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) was a bit slower in dealing with Quinn, but by 1970 he was sent to jail for six months and was later permanently disbarred from practicing law.\nA Job With The Mob:Prior to losing his law license, Quinn gained a partnership in a New York-based securities law firm that set off several alarms among federal law enforcement agencies. Indeed, an FBI report from 1983 recalled this firm’s chief focus was being responsible for the “funds of hoodlum-controlled companies.”\nQuinn was on both the FBI’s and SEC’s respective radars in the early 1980s for his role with two companies,Sundance Gold Mining and Aquarius Gold Exploration, that claimed to have discovered gold in Suriname. The companies created a flurry of excitement among investors, but an investigation into their operations found a hitherto undeclared connection with the Genovese crime family.\nThe SEC filed a civil complaint against Quinn in 1983, charging him with fraudulently manipulating and promoting the companies’ stocks.\nThree years later, he reached a settlement with the regulator by agreeing to permanently stay away from anything related to securities.\nThe FBI, despite finding Mafia fingerprints in Quinn’s business affairs, declined to press charges against him.\nRealizing that he wore out his welcome in his home country, Quinn and his common-law wife Rochelle Rothfleisch decided to relocate to France and to up his game to an unprecedented operation.\nBoiler Room Follies:The circumstances and details of how Quinn built his swindling masterpiece are a bit fuzzy, but it is believed that the scheme was first hatched in 1984 and was coordinated out of his $6 million villa in the south of France.\nQuinn set up an archipelago of offices in several European countries and in Dubai, Jamaica and the tiny South Pacific island nation of Vanuatu, and he gave them phony names that sounded similar to respectable brokerages.\nEach office was staffed with salesmen who were tasked to sell stocks for 20 U.S. corporations to individual investors around the world. The stocks in question were mostly shell companies trading on the over-the-counter exchanges that Quinn picked up for pennies, but they were resold by Quinn’s salesmen at inflated amounts.\nThe investors were culled from mailing lists sold by publishing companies and professional organizations, as well as from respondents to advertisements placed in newsletters focused on the over-the-counter markets.\nQuinn’s henchmen would telephone the investors — nearly all of whom were novices to investing — and do a high-pressure sales spiel that, more often than not, resulted in the separation of the gullible targets from their money.\nQuinn’s team aimed at European, Australian, Middle Eastern and Hong Kong neophyte investors. The only country off-limits from this scheme was the U.S. Quinn was already on the FBI’s radar and the last thing he wanted was to give them cause to pursue him anew.\nA Temporary Setback: In 1988, Quinn’s arrest in France saw him charged with securities fraud, forgery of administrative documents and the possession of two fake Greek passports. His detention and the subsequent arrest of 20 of his salesmen created a fascinating dilemma for banking and law enforcement agencies in multiple countries.\nFor starters, no one could easily figure out where the majority of Quinn’s $500 million in ill-gotten gains wound up. Transfers were traced through banks in Switzerland, Luxembourg and Gibraltar, as well as the beleaguered Bank of Credit and Commerce International in Tampa, Florida, which gained national attention as a favored depository for those involved in drug money laundering. But where the money eventually landed was anyone’s guess, and Quinn’s talent for adopting aliases to cover his business tracks confounded investigators.\nAlso, it was unclear regarding how many people were swindled. A pair of class-action lawsuits brought out a total of 500 people trying to regain their money, but some observers of this case speculated the number could have been higher — some investors might have seen Quinn’s scam as a means of evading local taxes and foreign currency exchanges and would then have to answer to their authorities if this chicanery came to light.\nThe SEC got into the picture because the stocks being sold in the scheme were all U.S. companies. The agency hosted a meeting in Washington D.C. with law enforcement officers and prosecutors from eight European countries and Australia, with the hopes of sorting out the mess. But since no Americans were defrauded in this elaborate charade, Quinn did not face criminal charges in his own country, although the SEC temporarily froze his U.S. assets.\nIn France, Quinn was initially released after agreeing to reimburse his French victims but was arrested again when the Swiss government demanded his extradition.\nHe came to trial in 1991 and was only sentenced to four years in prison, but his sentence was reduced to include time served and he was extradited to Switzerland.\nHis Alpine detention was brief and by the mid-1990s he returned to the U.S. and rented a luxury home in Greenwich, Connecticut, a swanky suburb of New York City.\nAn Eventual Stumble:One of Quinn’s neighbors in Greenwich wasMartin Frankel,a financier with his own addiction to swindling.\nIn 1999, the Wall Street Journal used anonymous “people familiar with the matter” to claim Quinn assisted Frankel in his efforts to raise money for a controlled investment fund designed to buy insurance companies — but this turned out to be an embezzlement scam that resulted in Frankel fleeing the U.S. to Germany on a phony passport.\nFrankel was eventually extradited and spent nearly two decades in prison, but Quinn was never charged for being a partner in Frankel’s shenanigans.\nFor most of the 1990s and the 2000s, Quinn kept a very low public profile, although law enforcement tracked his travels to such far-flung places as the Maldives and the United Arab Emirates.\nIn 2004, he made a rare appearance at the Irish Derby as the co-owner of the winning thoroughbred Grey Swallow. Photographs of Quinn with the winning racehorse marked the only time that he was ever photographed in a public gathering. (Copyright restrictions prevent us from reprinting the photograph here, butthis linkon the RTE website shows Quinn, standing second from right, at the conclusion of the championship race.)\nIn November 2009, Quinn’s luck finally ran out. On a trip back from Ireland to New York’s JFK International Airport, he was arrested for his role within a ring of embezzlers that sought to defraud a pair of British telecommunications companies out of more than $60 million. The scheme had the global hallmarks of Quinn’s earlier criminal triumph, with funds being disbursed to seven countries across four continents.\nQuinn was immediately jailed upon his arrest and was denied bail because it was feared he would attempt to flee the country. He eventually pleaded guilty to a single count of wire fraud and, despite exhortations to avoid prison due to health problems, he was sentenced in March 2013 to 84 months in prison. He was released in May 2016.\nWhat became of Quinn since his release is unknown. No obituary for him has been published, and he would be 89 years old if he is still alive.\nOne information-tracking website listed him residing at a Brooklyn address, but the website also listed an accompanying telephone number that is not in service. Any readers who may have information on Quinn’s whereabouts should contact us and we will offer an update on his story.\nQuinn rarely spoke to anyone about his criminal activities. During an investigative session after his final arrest, he reportedly would only answer questions through a series of eyelid blinks. When a reporter sought to interview him in 1995, he demanded his privacy.\n\"Just forget me,\" Quinn said. \"I've got a lot of trouble and a lot of personal grief. I'm just trying to get on with my life. I'm not in the securities business and never will be again.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1848,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":147294860,"gmtCreate":1626358521050,"gmtModify":1631887979323,"author":{"id":"3582441430299393","authorId":"3582441430299393","name":"TerranceYee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bad1cb6d60af593e8e18243a352e839e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582441430299393","idStr":"3582441430299393"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/147294860","repostId":"1184777604","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1796,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":145224074,"gmtCreate":1626226599098,"gmtModify":1631887979340,"author":{"id":"3582441430299393","authorId":"3582441430299393","name":"TerranceYee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bad1cb6d60af593e8e18243a352e839e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582441430299393","idStr":"3582441430299393"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/145224074","repostId":"2151560584","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1131,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":145980279,"gmtCreate":1626186081691,"gmtModify":1631887979349,"author":{"id":"3582441430299393","authorId":"3582441430299393","name":"TerranceYee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bad1cb6d60af593e8e18243a352e839e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582441430299393","idStr":"3582441430299393"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/145980279","repostId":"1152834985","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152834985","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1626184827,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1152834985?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-13 22:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Boeing shares fell more than 3% in early trading,as cutting 787 Dreamliner production target after new flaw found.<blockquote>波音股价早盘下跌超过3%，因在发现新缺陷后削减了787梦想飞机的生产目标。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152834985","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Boeing shares fell more than 3% in early trading,as cutting 787 Dreamliner production target after n","content":"<p>Boeing shares&nbsp;fell&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;3%&nbsp;in&nbsp;early&nbsp;trading,as&nbsp;cutting 787 Dreamliner production&nbsp;target after new flaw found.</p><p><blockquote>波音股价早盘下跌超过3%，因在发现新缺陷后削减了787梦想飞机的生产目标。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa6bb6b3a9d92023b85a895ae9c32a75\" tg-width=\"1273\" tg-height=\"591\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Boeing&nbsp;cut its delivery target for its undelivered 787 Dreamliner planes and said it will temporarily lower production rates after a new defect was detected on some of the wide-body jets.</p><p><blockquote>波音削减了未交付的787梦想飞机的交付目标，并表示在部分宽体飞机上发现新缺陷后将暂时降低生产率。</blockquote></p><p> Boeing said Tuesday it will deliver fewer than half of the Dreamliners it has already produced but has not yet delivered to customers.</p><p><blockquote>波音公司周二表示，将交付不到一半的已经生产但尚未交付给客户的梦想飞机。</blockquote></p><p> CEO Dave Calhoun said at an investor conference last month that the company would deliver the \"lion's share\" of the roughly 100 Dreamliners in its inventory this year.</p><p><blockquote>首席执行官戴夫·卡尔霍恩(Dave Calhoun)在上个月的投资者会议上表示，该公司今年将交付其库存中约100架梦想飞机中的“最大份额”。</blockquote></p><p> Boeing halted deliveries of the wide-body planes in May for thesecond timein less than a year as the Federal Aviation Administration reviewed the manufacturer's method for evaluating the aircraft. Last year, Boeing first disclosed incorrect spacing in some parts of certain 787 aircraft, including the fuselage, halting deliveries for five months.</p><p><blockquote>由于美国联邦航空管理局审查了制造商的飞机评估方法，波音公司于5月份停止了宽体飞机的交付，这是不到一年的时间内第二次。去年，波音首次披露某些787飞机的某些部件（包括机身）间距不正确，导致交付暂停五个月。</blockquote></p><p> The FAA said Monday the latest issue was related to that and was detected \"near the nose\" of certain 787 Dreamliners that Boeing has manufactured but not delivered.</p><p><blockquote>美国联邦航空局周一表示，最新问题与此有关，是在波音制造但未交付的某些787梦想飞机的“机头附近”检测到的。</blockquote></p><p> Because most of an aircraft's price is paid when the plane is handed over to customers, further delivery delays would mean more financial strain for Boeing. The company is trying to regain its footing in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic and two fatal crashes that grounded its best-selling 737 Max .</p><p><blockquote>由于飞机的大部分价格是在飞机移交给客户时支付的，因此进一步的交付延迟将意味着波音公司面临更大的财务压力。在冠状病毒大流行和两起导致其最畅销的737 Max停飞的致命坠机事件之后，该公司正试图重新站稳脚跟。</blockquote></p><p> \"This issue was discovered as part of the ongoing system-wide inspection of Boeing's 787 shimming processes required by the FAA,\" the agency said. \"Although the issue poses no immediate threat to flight safety, Boeing has committed to fix these airplanes before resuming deliveries.\"</p><p><blockquote>该机构表示：“这个问题是在美国联邦航空局要求对波音787垫片过程进行的全系统检查中发现的。”“尽管该问题不会对飞行安全构成直接威胁，但波音公司已承诺在恢复交付之前修复这些飞机。”</blockquote></p><p> Boeing said it would reduce production to fewer than the current rate of five planes a month for a few weeks but declined to say by how much.&nbsp;Boeing will reassign staff on the production line to inspect planes and make any necessary repairs.</p><p><blockquote>波音表示，将在几周内将产量降至低于目前每月5架飞机的水平，但拒绝透露具体产量。波音将重新分配生产线上的员工来检查飞机并进行任何必要的维修。</blockquote></p><p> \"Based on data, the FAA will determine whether similar modifications should be made on 787s already in commercial service,\" the FAA said.</p><p><blockquote>FAA表示：“根据数据，FAA将决定是否应该对已经投入商业服务的787进行类似改装。”</blockquote></p><p> Boeing also said Tuesday it delivered 45 planes last month, 33 of them 737 Maxes. In the first half of the year the company handed over 156 planes, one fewer than its total for all of 2020, when coronavirus devastated the industry.</p><p><blockquote>波音公司周二还表示，上个月交付了45架飞机，其中33架是737 MAX。今年上半年，该公司交付了156架飞机，比2020年全年的总数少了一架，当时冠状病毒摧毁了该行业。</blockquote></p><p> Net orders for the month totaled 146 planes, while gross orders of 219 were the highest in two years.</p><p><blockquote>当月净订单总数为146架，而总订单为219架，为两年来最高。</blockquote></p><p> Those included an order for 200 Maxes toUnited&nbsp;Airlines, which the carrier announcedlast monthalong with an order for 70 Airbus narrow-body planes.</p><p><blockquote>其中包括向联合航空订购200架MAX飞机，该航空公司上个月宣布了这一订单，同时还订购了70架空客窄体飞机。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Boeing shares fell more than 3% in early trading,as cutting 787 Dreamliner production target after new flaw found.<blockquote>波音股价早盘下跌超过3%，因在发现新缺陷后削减了787梦想飞机的生产目标。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBoeing shares fell more than 3% in early trading,as cutting 787 Dreamliner production target after new flaw found.<blockquote>波音股价早盘下跌超过3%，因在发现新缺陷后削减了787梦想飞机的生产目标。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-13 22:00</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Boeing shares&nbsp;fell&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;3%&nbsp;in&nbsp;early&nbsp;trading,as&nbsp;cutting 787 Dreamliner production&nbsp;target after new flaw found.</p><p><blockquote>波音股价早盘下跌超过3%，因在发现新缺陷后削减了787梦想飞机的生产目标。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa6bb6b3a9d92023b85a895ae9c32a75\" tg-width=\"1273\" tg-height=\"591\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Boeing&nbsp;cut its delivery target for its undelivered 787 Dreamliner planes and said it will temporarily lower production rates after a new defect was detected on some of the wide-body jets.</p><p><blockquote>波音削减了未交付的787梦想飞机的交付目标，并表示在部分宽体飞机上发现新缺陷后将暂时降低生产率。</blockquote></p><p> Boeing said Tuesday it will deliver fewer than half of the Dreamliners it has already produced but has not yet delivered to customers.</p><p><blockquote>波音公司周二表示，将交付不到一半的已经生产但尚未交付给客户的梦想飞机。</blockquote></p><p> CEO Dave Calhoun said at an investor conference last month that the company would deliver the \"lion's share\" of the roughly 100 Dreamliners in its inventory this year.</p><p><blockquote>首席执行官戴夫·卡尔霍恩(Dave Calhoun)在上个月的投资者会议上表示，该公司今年将交付其库存中约100架梦想飞机中的“最大份额”。</blockquote></p><p> Boeing halted deliveries of the wide-body planes in May for thesecond timein less than a year as the Federal Aviation Administration reviewed the manufacturer's method for evaluating the aircraft. Last year, Boeing first disclosed incorrect spacing in some parts of certain 787 aircraft, including the fuselage, halting deliveries for five months.</p><p><blockquote>由于美国联邦航空管理局审查了制造商的飞机评估方法，波音公司于5月份停止了宽体飞机的交付，这是不到一年的时间内第二次。去年，波音首次披露某些787飞机的某些部件（包括机身）间距不正确，导致交付暂停五个月。</blockquote></p><p> The FAA said Monday the latest issue was related to that and was detected \"near the nose\" of certain 787 Dreamliners that Boeing has manufactured but not delivered.</p><p><blockquote>美国联邦航空局周一表示，最新问题与此有关，是在波音制造但未交付的某些787梦想飞机的“机头附近”检测到的。</blockquote></p><p> Because most of an aircraft's price is paid when the plane is handed over to customers, further delivery delays would mean more financial strain for Boeing. The company is trying to regain its footing in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic and two fatal crashes that grounded its best-selling 737 Max .</p><p><blockquote>由于飞机的大部分价格是在飞机移交给客户时支付的，因此进一步的交付延迟将意味着波音公司面临更大的财务压力。在冠状病毒大流行和两起导致其最畅销的737 Max停飞的致命坠机事件之后，该公司正试图重新站稳脚跟。</blockquote></p><p> \"This issue was discovered as part of the ongoing system-wide inspection of Boeing's 787 shimming processes required by the FAA,\" the agency said. \"Although the issue poses no immediate threat to flight safety, Boeing has committed to fix these airplanes before resuming deliveries.\"</p><p><blockquote>该机构表示：“这个问题是在美国联邦航空局要求对波音787垫片过程进行的全系统检查中发现的。”“尽管该问题不会对飞行安全构成直接威胁，但波音公司已承诺在恢复交付之前修复这些飞机。”</blockquote></p><p> Boeing said it would reduce production to fewer than the current rate of five planes a month for a few weeks but declined to say by how much.&nbsp;Boeing will reassign staff on the production line to inspect planes and make any necessary repairs.</p><p><blockquote>波音表示，将在几周内将产量降至低于目前每月5架飞机的水平，但拒绝透露具体产量。波音将重新分配生产线上的员工来检查飞机并进行任何必要的维修。</blockquote></p><p> \"Based on data, the FAA will determine whether similar modifications should be made on 787s already in commercial service,\" the FAA said.</p><p><blockquote>FAA表示：“根据数据，FAA将决定是否应该对已经投入商业服务的787进行类似改装。”</blockquote></p><p> Boeing also said Tuesday it delivered 45 planes last month, 33 of them 737 Maxes. In the first half of the year the company handed over 156 planes, one fewer than its total for all of 2020, when coronavirus devastated the industry.</p><p><blockquote>波音公司周二还表示，上个月交付了45架飞机，其中33架是737 MAX。今年上半年，该公司交付了156架飞机，比2020年全年的总数少了一架，当时冠状病毒摧毁了该行业。</blockquote></p><p> Net orders for the month totaled 146 planes, while gross orders of 219 were the highest in two years.</p><p><blockquote>当月净订单总数为146架，而总订单为219架，为两年来最高。</blockquote></p><p> Those included an order for 200 Maxes toUnited&nbsp;Airlines, which the carrier announcedlast monthalong with an order for 70 Airbus narrow-body planes.</p><p><blockquote>其中包括向联合航空订购200架MAX飞机，该航空公司上个月宣布了这一订单，同时还订购了70架空客窄体飞机。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BA":"波音"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152834985","content_text":"Boeing shares fell more than 3% in early trading,as cutting 787 Dreamliner production target after new flaw found.\nBoeing cut its delivery target for its undelivered 787 Dreamliner planes and said it will temporarily lower production rates after a new defect was detected on some of the wide-body jets.\nBoeing said Tuesday it will deliver fewer than half of the Dreamliners it has already produced but has not yet delivered to customers.\nCEO Dave Calhoun said at an investor conference last month that the company would deliver the \"lion's share\" of the roughly 100 Dreamliners in its inventory this year.\nBoeing halted deliveries of the wide-body planes in May for thesecond timein less than a year as the Federal Aviation Administration reviewed the manufacturer's method for evaluating the aircraft. Last year, Boeing first disclosed incorrect spacing in some parts of certain 787 aircraft, including the fuselage, halting deliveries for five months.\nThe FAA said Monday the latest issue was related to that and was detected \"near the nose\" of certain 787 Dreamliners that Boeing has manufactured but not delivered.\nBecause most of an aircraft's price is paid when the plane is handed over to customers, further delivery delays would mean more financial strain for Boeing. The company is trying to regain its footing in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic and two fatal crashes that grounded its best-selling 737 Max .\n\"This issue was discovered as part of the ongoing system-wide inspection of Boeing's 787 shimming processes required by the FAA,\" the agency said. \"Although the issue poses no immediate threat to flight safety, Boeing has committed to fix these airplanes before resuming deliveries.\"\nBoeing said it would reduce production to fewer than the current rate of five planes a month for a few weeks but declined to say by how much. Boeing will reassign staff on the production line to inspect planes and make any necessary repairs.\n\"Based on data, the FAA will determine whether similar modifications should be made on 787s already in commercial service,\" the FAA said.\nBoeing also said Tuesday it delivered 45 planes last month, 33 of them 737 Maxes. In the first half of the year the company handed over 156 planes, one fewer than its total for all of 2020, when coronavirus devastated the industry.\nNet orders for the month totaled 146 planes, while gross orders of 219 were the highest in two years.\nThose included an order for 200 Maxes toUnited Airlines, which the carrier announcedlast monthalong with an order for 70 Airbus narrow-body planes.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2681,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":146047462,"gmtCreate":1626046946856,"gmtModify":1631887979359,"author":{"id":"3582441430299393","authorId":"3582441430299393","name":"TerranceYee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bad1cb6d60af593e8e18243a352e839e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582441430299393","idStr":"3582441430299393"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146047462","repostId":"1114863871","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2393,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148443696,"gmtCreate":1626010910615,"gmtModify":1631887979370,"author":{"id":"3582441430299393","authorId":"3582441430299393","name":"TerranceYee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bad1cb6d60af593e8e18243a352e839e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582441430299393","idStr":"3582441430299393"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148443696","repostId":"1112201050","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112201050","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625966101,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1112201050?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-11 09:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Meme Stock Trade Is Far From Over. What Investors Need to Know.<blockquote>模因股票交易还远未结束。投资者需要知道的。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112201050","media":"Barrons","summary":"It seemed to be only a matter of time.\nWhen GameStop (ticker: GME), BlackBerry (BB), and even the de","content":"<p>It seemed to be only a matter of time.</p><p><blockquote>这似乎只是时间问题。</blockquote></p><p> When GameStop (ticker: GME), BlackBerry (BB), and even the desiccated carcass of Blockbuster suddenly sprang to life in January, the clock was already ticking for when they would crash again. Would it be hours, days, or weeks?</p><p><blockquote>当游戏驿站（股票代码：GME）、黑莓（BB），甚至百视达（Blockbuster）的干涸尸体在一月份突然复活时，他们再次崩溃的时间已经在滴答作响。是几个小时、几天还是几周？</blockquote></p><p> It has now been half a year, and the core “meme stocks” are still trading at levels considered outrageous by people who have studied them for years. New names like&nbsp;Clover Health Investments(CLOV) and&nbsp;Newegg Commerce(NEGG) have recently popped up on message boards, and their stocks have popped, too.</p><p><blockquote>现在已经半年了，核心“模因股”的交易水平仍然被研究它们多年的人认为令人发指。Clover Health Investments(CLOV)和Newegg Commerce(NEGG)等新名字最近出现在留言板上，它们的股票也随之上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The collective efforts of millions of retail traders—long derided as “the dumb money”—have successfully held stocks aloft and forced naysayers to capitulate.</p><p><blockquote>数百万散户交易者——长期以来被嘲笑为“愚蠢的钱”——的集体努力成功地保持了股票的高位，并迫使反对者投降。</blockquote></p><p> That is true even as the companies they are betting on have shown scant signs of transforming their businesses, or turning profits that might justify their valuations. BlackBerry burned cash in its latest quarter and warned that its key cybersecurity division would hit the low end of its revenue guidance; the stock dipped on the news but has still more than doubled in the past year.</p><p><blockquote>尽管他们押注的公司几乎没有表现出业务转型或扭亏为盈的迹象，但情况确实如此。黑莓在最近一个季度烧钱，并警告其关键的网络安全部门将触及收入指引的低端；消息传出后，该股下跌，但在过去一年中仍上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> While trading volume at the big brokers has come down slightly from its February peak, it remains two to three times as high as it was before the pandemic. And a startling amount of that activity is occurring in stocks favored by retail traders. The average daily value of shares traded in&nbsp;AMC Entertainment Holdings(AMC), for example, reached $13.1 billion in June, more than&nbsp;Apple’s(AAPL) $9.5 billion and Amazon.com’s (AMZN) $10.3 billion.</p><p><blockquote>尽管大型经纪商的交易量较2月份的峰值略有下降，但仍是大流行前的两到三倍。散户交易者青睐的股票中发生了数量惊人的此类活动。例如，AMC院线控股公司(AMC)6月份股票日均交易价值达到131亿美元，超过苹果(AAPL)的95亿美元和亚马逊(AMZN)的103亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Even as the coronavirus fades in the U.S., most new traders say they are committed to the hobby they learned during lockdown—58% of day traders in a Betterment survey said they are planning to trade even more in the future, and only 12% plan to trade less. Amateur pandemic bakers have stopped kneading sourdough loaves; traders are only getting hungrier.</p><p><blockquote>即使冠状病毒在美国消退，大多数新交易者表示，他们仍致力于他们在封锁期间学到的爱好——在一项Betterment调查中，58%的日内交易者表示，他们计划在未来进行更多交易，只有12%的人计划减少交易。业余疫情面包师已经停止揉酸面团面包；交易者只会越来越饥渴。</blockquote></p><p> A sustained bear market would spoil such an appetite, as it did when the dot-com bubble burst. For now, dips are reasons to hold or buy.</p><p><blockquote>持续的熊市会破坏这种胃口，就像互联网泡沫破裂时一样。就目前而言，下跌是持有或买入的理由。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25a79e71371c165f9a3a5085931fc487\" tg-width=\"979\" tg-height=\"649\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> “I’ve seen that the ‘buy the dip’ sentiment hasn’t relented for a moment,” wrote Brandon Luczek, an electronics technician for the U.S. Navy who trades with friends online, in an email to&nbsp;Barron’s.</p><p><blockquote>“我发现‘逢低买入’的情绪一刻也没有减弱，”与朋友在线交易的美国海军电子技术员布兰登·卢泽克(Brandon Luczek)在给《巴伦周刊》的电子邮件中写道。</blockquote></p><p> The meme stock surge has been propelled by a rise in trading by retail investors. In 2020, online brokers signed clients at a record pace, with more than 10 million people opening new accounts. That record will almost certainly be broken in 2021. Brokers had already added more than 10 million accounts less than halfway into the year, some of the top firms have disclosed.</p><p><blockquote>散户投资者交易量的增加推动了模因股票的飙升。2020年，在线经纪商以创纪录的速度签约客户，新开户人数超过1000万人。这一纪录几乎肯定会在2021年被打破。一些顶级公司透露，今年不到一半，经纪商就已经增加了超过1000万个账户。</blockquote></p><p> Meme stocks are both the cart and the horse of this phenomenon. Their sudden price spikes are driven by new investors, and then that action drives even more new people to invest. Millions of people downloaded investing apps in late January and early February just to be a part of the fun. A recent&nbsp;Charles Schwab(SCHW) survey found that 15% of all current traders began investing after 2020.</p><p><blockquote>模因股票既是这一现象的马车，也是马。它们的价格突然飙升是由新投资者推动的，然后这种行为会推动更多的新人投资。数百万人在一月底和二月初下载了投资应用程序，只是为了享受乐趣。嘉信理财(SCHW)最近的一项调查发现，15%的当前交易者在2020年之后开始投资。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/167386c6881a258922ad62caaf7a05f4\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e29e3041b91070252ab9063d1a11fa2\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"642\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9cc1c0bd6368721c0eca87e25719f16\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"641\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The most prominent player in the surge is Robinhood, which said it had added 5.5 million funded accounts in the first quarter alone. But it isn’t alone. Fidelity, for instance, announced that it had attracted 1.6 million new customers under the age of 35 in the first quarter, 223% more than a year before.</p><p><blockquote>这一激增中最突出的参与者是Robinhood，该公司表示仅在第一季度就增加了550万个受资助账户。但它并不孤单。例如，富达宣布第一季度吸引了160万35岁以下的新客户，比去年同期增长了223%。</blockquote></p><p> Under pressure from Robinhood’s zero-commission model, all of the major brokers cut commissions to zero in 2019. That opened the floodgates to a new group of customers—one that may not have as much spare cash to trade but is more active and diverse than its predecessors. And the brokers are cashing in. Fidelity is hoping to attract investors before they even have driver’s licenses, allowing children as young as 13 to open trading accounts. Robinhood is riding the momentum to an initial public offering that analysts expect to value it at more than 10 times its revenue.</p><p><blockquote>在Robinhood零佣金模式的压力下，所有主要经纪商都在2019年将佣金降至零。这为新的客户群体打开了闸门——他们可能没有那么多闲钱可供交易，但比前辈更加活跃和多样化。经纪人正在兑现。富达希望在投资者拥有驾驶执照之前就吸引他们，允许年仅13岁的儿童开设交易账户。Robinhood正在乘势进行首次公开募股，分析师预计其估值将超过其收入的10倍。</blockquote></p><p> These new customers act differently than their older peers. For years, there was a “big gravitation toward ETFs,” says Chris Larkin, head of trading at E*Trade, which is now owned by Morgan Stanley (MS). But picking single stocks is clearly “the big story of 2021.”</p><p><blockquote>这些新客户的行为与老客户不同。E*Trade（现归摩根士丹利(MS)所有）交易主管克里斯·拉金(Chris Larkin)表示，多年来，“ETF的吸引力很大”。但挑选个股显然是“2021年的大新闻”。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, equity exchange-traded funds are still doing well, as investors around the world bet on the pandemic recovery and avoid weak bond yields.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，股票交易所交易基金仍然表现良好，因为世界各地的投资者都押注于疫情复苏，并避免债券收益率疲软。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But ETFs don’t light up the message boards like stocks do. Not that it has been a one-way ride for the top names. GameStop did dip in February, and Wall Street enjoyed a moment of schadenfreude. It didn’t last.</p><p><blockquote>但ETF不像股票那样点亮留言板。对于顶级品牌来说，这并不是一条单程之旅。游戏驿站确实在二月份下跌，华尔街享受了一段幸灾乐祸的时刻。这并没有持续多久。</blockquote></p><p> “Like cicadas, meme traders returned in a wild blaze of activity after being seemingly underground for several months,” wrote Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers. Sosnick believes that the meme stocks tend to trade inversely to cryptocurrencies, because their fans rotate from one to the other as the momentum shifts.</p><p><blockquote>盈透证券(Interactive Brokers)首席策略师史蒂夫·索斯尼克(Steve Sosnick)写道：“就像蝉一样，模因交易者在看似地下几个月后，又以疯狂的活动回归。”索斯尼克认为，模因股票的交易往往与加密货币相反，因为随着势头的变化，它们的粉丝会从一种股票转向另一种股票。</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t think it’s strictly a coincidence that meme stocks roared back to life after a significant correction in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies,” he wrote.</p><p><blockquote>他写道：“我认为，在比特币和其他加密货币大幅调整后，模因股票重新焕发生机，这绝非巧合。”</blockquote></p><p> Sosnick considers meme stocks a “sector unto themselves,” one that he segregates on his computer monitor away from other stock tickers.</p><p><blockquote>索斯尼克认为模因股票是一个“独立的行业”，他在电脑显示器上将其与其他股票代码分开。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, Wall Street’s reaction to the meme stock revolution has been to isolate the parts of the market that the pros deem irrational. Most short sellers won’t touch the stocks, and analysts are dropping coverage.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，华尔街对模因股票革命的反应是孤立市场中专业人士认为非理性的部分。大多数卖空者不会碰这些股票，分析师也放弃了报道。</blockquote></p><p> But Wall Street can’t swat the retail army away like cicadas, or count on them disappearing for the next 17 years. Stock trading has permanently shifted. This year, retail activity accounts for 24% of equity volume, up from 15% in 2019. Adherents to the new creed are not passive observers willing to let Wall Street manage the markets.</p><p><blockquote>但华尔街不能像蝉一样将零售大军赶走，也不能指望它们在未来17年消失。股票交易已经永久转移。今年，零售活动占股本的24%，高于2019年的15%。新信条的追随者并不是愿意让华尔街管理市场的被动观察者。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/710e642d3b685b74f8c9dcaf46ef3e0b\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"643\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> “What this really reflects is a reversal of the trends that we saw toward less and less engagement with individual companies,” says Joshua Mitts, a professor at Columbia Law School specializing in securities markets. “Technology is bringing the average investor closer to the companies in which he or she invests, and that’s just taking on new and unpredictable forms.”</p><p><blockquote>哥伦比亚大学法学院专门研究证券市场的教授约书亚·米茨(Joshua Mitts)表示：“这真正反映了我们看到的与个别公司的接触越来越少的趋势的逆转。”“技术正在拉近普通投资者与他或她投资的公司的距离，而这只是以新的、不可预测的形式出现。”</blockquote></p><p> The swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way.</p><p><blockquote>你得到的秋千肯定会让你有某种感觉。</blockquote></p><p> — Matt Kohrs, 26, who streams stock analysis daily on YouTube</p><p><blockquote>——Matt Kohrs，26岁，每天在YouTube上播放股票分析</blockquote></p><p> It is now changing the lives of those who got in early and are still riding the names higher.</p><p><blockquote>它现在正在改变那些早期进入的人的生活，并且仍然名气更高。</blockquote></p><p> Take Matt Kohrs, who had invested in AMC Entertainment early. He quit his job as a programmer in New York in February, moved to Philadelphia, and started streaming&nbsp;stock analysis on YouTube&nbsp;for seven hours a day.</p><p><blockquote>以马特·科尔斯（Matt Kohrs）为例，他很早就投资了AMC院线。今年2月，他辞去了在纽约的程序员工作，搬到了费城，并开始每天在YouTube上播放7个小时的股票分析。</blockquote></p><p> With 350,000 YouTube followers, it’s paying the bills. With his earnings from ads and from the stock, Kohrs says he can pull down roughly the same salary he made before. But he also knows that relying on earnings from stocks like this is nothing like a 9-to-5 job.</p><p><blockquote>它在YouTube上拥有35万粉丝，正在支付账单。科尔斯表示，凭借广告和股票的收入，他可以降低与以前大致相同的工资。但他也知道，像这样依赖股票的收益与朝九晚五的工作完全不同。</blockquote></p><p> “The swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>“你得到的挥杆肯定会让你有某种感觉，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Companies are starting to react more aggressively, too. They are either embracing their new owners or paying meme-ologists to understand the emoji-filled language of the new Wall Street so they can ward them off or appease them.</p><p><blockquote>公司也开始做出更积极的反应。他们要么拥抱他们的新主人，要么付钱给模因学家来理解新华尔街充满表情符号的语言，这样他们就可以避开他们或安抚他们。</blockquote></p><p> AMC even canceled a proposed equity raise this past week because the company apparently didn’t like the vibes it was getting from the Reddit crowd. AMC has already quintupled its share count over the past year. CEO Adam Aron tweeted that he had seen “many yes, many no” reactions to his proposal to issue 25 million more shares, so it will be canceled instead of being presented for a vote at AMC’s annual meeting later this month. The company did not respond to a question on how it had polled shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>AMC甚至在过去一周取消了拟议的股权融资，因为该公司显然不喜欢Reddit人群的氛围。过去一年，AMC的股票数量已经增加了五倍。首席执行官Adam Aron在推特上表示，他看到了对他增发2500万股股票的提议“许多是，许多不是”的反应，因此该提议将被取消，而不是在本月晚些时候的AMC年会上进行投票。该公司没有回应有关如何对股东进行民意调查的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Forget the boardroom. Corporate policy is now being determined in the chat room.</p><p><blockquote>忘了会议室吧。公司政策现在正在聊天室中确定。</blockquote></p><p> Big investors are spending more time tracking social-media discussions about stocks. Bank of America found in a survey this year that about 25% of institutions had already been tracking social-media sentiment, but that about 40% are interested in using it going forward.</p><p><blockquote>大投资者花更多时间跟踪社交媒体上有关股票的讨论。美国银行在今年的一项调查中发现，大约25%的机构已经在跟踪社交媒体情绪，但大约40%的机构有兴趣在未来使用它。</blockquote></p><p> In the past few months, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and J.P. Morgan have all produced reports on how to trade around the retail action, coming to somewhat different conclusions.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的几个月里，美国银行、摩根士丹利和摩根大通都发布了关于如何围绕散户行为进行交易的报告，得出了有些不同的结论。</blockquote></p><p> There can be “alpha in the signal,” as Morgan Stanley put it, but it can take some intense number-crunching to get there. Not all message-board chatter leads to sustained price gains, of course, and retail order flow cannot easily be separated from institutional flow without substantial data analysis. For investors with the tools to pinpoint which stocks retail investors are buying and which they are selling, J.P. Morgan suggests going long on the 20% of stocks with the most buying interest and short on the top 20% in selling interest.</p><p><blockquote>正如摩根士丹利所说，信号中可能存在“阿尔法”，但可能需要一些激烈的数字运算才能达到这一目标。当然，并非所有留言板上的喋喋不休都会导致价格持续上涨，而且在没有大量数据分析的情况下，零售订单流无法轻易与机构订单流分开。对于拥有工具来确定散户投资者正在买入和卖出哪些股票的投资者，摩根大通建议做多买入兴趣最高的20%的股票，做空卖出兴趣最高的20%的股票。</blockquote></p><p> For now, many of the institutions buying data on social-media sentiment appear to be trying to reduce their risks, as opposed to scouting new opportunities, according to Boris Spiwak of alternative data firm Thinknum, which offers products that track social-media sentiment. “They see it as almost like an insurance policy, to limit their downside risks,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>提供跟踪社交媒体情绪产品的另类数据公司Thinknum的鲍里斯·斯皮瓦克(Boris Spiwak)表示，目前，许多购买社交媒体情绪数据的机构似乎都在试图降低风险，而不是寻找新的机会。“他们认为这几乎就像一份保险单，以限制他们的下行风险，”他说。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For retail traders, the method isn’t always scientific. The action is sustained by a community ethos. And the force behind it is as much emotional and moral as financial.</p><p><blockquote>对于散户来说，这种方法并不总是科学的。这一行动得到了社区精神的支持。其背后的力量既是经济上的，也是情感上的和道德上的。</blockquote></p><p> New investors say they are motivated by a desire to prove themselves and punish the old guard as much as by profits. They learn from one another about the market, sometimes amplifying or debunking conspiracy theories about Wall Street. Some link the meme-stock movement to continued mistrust of big financial institutions stemming from the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p><blockquote>新投资者表示，他们的动机是证明自己和惩罚保守派的愿望，就像利润一样。他们互相了解市场，有时会放大或揭穿有关华尔街的阴谋论。一些人将模因股票走势与2008年金融危机引发的对大型金融机构的持续不信任联系起来。</blockquote></p><p> “Wall Street brought our economy to its knees, and no one ever got in trouble for it,” says the 26-year-old Kohrs. “So, I think they view this as not only can we make money, but we can also make these hedge funds on Wall Street pay.”</p><p><blockquote>“华尔街让我们的经济陷入瘫痪，没有人因此惹上麻烦，”26岁的科尔斯说。“所以，我认为他们认为这不仅可以让我们赚钱，还可以让华尔街的这些对冲基金付钱。”</blockquote></p><p> Claire Hirschberg is a 28-year-old union organizer who bought about $50 worth of GameStop stock on Robinhood in January after hearing about it from friends. She liked the idea, but what really got her excited about it was the reaction of her father, a longtime money manager. “He was so mad I had bought GameStop and was refusing to sell,” she says, laughing. “And that just makes me want to hold it forever.”</p><p><blockquote>克莱尔·赫希伯格(Claire Hirschberg)是一名28岁的工会组织者，她在从朋友那里听说此事后，于1月份在Robinhood上购买了价值约50美元的游戏驿站股票。她喜欢这个想法，但真正让她兴奋的是她父亲的反应，他父亲是一位长期的资金经理。“他对我买下游戏驿站并拒绝出售感到非常生气，”她笑着说。“这让我想永远拥有它。”</blockquote></p><p> Just like old Wall Street has rituals and codes, the new one does, too. A new investment banking employee learns quickly that you don’t wear a Ferragamo tie until after you make associate. You never leave the office until the managing director does, and you don’t complain about the hours. And the bad guys are the regulators and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, and not in that order.</p><p><blockquote>就像旧华尔街有仪式和准则一样，新华尔街也有。一位新的投资银行员工很快就会知道，直到你成为合伙人后，你才会戴菲拉格慕领带。在总经理离开之前，你永远不会离开办公室，你也不会抱怨工作时间。坏人是监管者和参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦，而不是这个顺序。</blockquote></p><p> The new trading desk—the apps that millions of retail traders now use and the message boards where they congregate—have unspoken rules, too. Publicly acknowledging financial losses is a valiant act, evidence of internal fortitude and belief in the group. You don’t take yourself seriously and you don’t police language. You are part of an army of “apes” or “retards.” You hold through the crashes, even if it means you might lose everything. And the bad guys are the short sellers, the market makers, and the Wall Street elites, in that order.</p><p><blockquote>新的交易台——数百万零售交易者现在使用的应用程序和他们聚集的留言板——也有潜规则。公开承认经济损失是一种勇敢的行为，是内部坚韧和对集团信念的证明。你不把自己当回事，也不监管语言。你是“猿”或“弱智”大军的一员。你坚持住了崩溃，即使这意味着你可能会失去一切。坏人依次是卖空者、做市商和华尔街精英。</blockquote></p><p> The group action is not just for moral support. The trading strategy depends on people keeping up the buying pressure to force a short squeeze or to buy bullish options that trigger what’s known as a gamma squeeze.</p><p><blockquote>群体行动不仅仅是为了道义上的支持。交易策略取决于人们保持购买压力以迫使空头挤压或购买看涨期权，从而触发所谓的伽马挤压。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75d79c78a14cc8f297e17397cc54bdb5\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\"><span>Keith Gill became the face of the Reddit army of retail traders pushing shares of GameStop higher when he appeared virtually before a House Financial Services Committee hearing in February.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>基思·吉尔(Keith Gill)二月份几乎出现在众议院金融服务委员会听证会上，成为Reddit零售交易员大军的代言人，推动游戏驿站股价走高。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Many short sellers say they won’t touch these stocks anymore. But clearly, others aren’t taking that advice and are giving the meme movement oxygen by repeatedly betting against the stocks. AMC’s short interest was at 17% of the stock’s float in mid-June, down from 28% in January, but not by much.</p><p><blockquote>许多卖空者表示，他们不会再碰这些股票了。但显然，其他人并没有采纳这一建议，而是通过反复做空股票来为模因运动提供氧气。6月中旬，AMC的空头利息占该股流通量的17%，低于1月份的28%，但幅度不大。</blockquote></p><p> As the price rises, the shorts can’t help themselves. They start “drooling, with flames coming out of their ears,” says Michael Pachter, a Wedbush Securities analyst who has covered GameStop for years. “What’s kind of shocked me is the definition of insanity, which is doing the same thing over and over and over again and hoping for a different outcome each time, and the shorts keep coming back,” he says. “And [GameStop bull] Keith Gill and his Reddit raiders keep squeezing them, and it keeps working.”</p><p><blockquote>随着价格的上涨，空头们也身不由己。Wedbush Securities分析师Michael Pachter表示，他们开始“流口水，耳朵里冒出火焰”，多年来一直关注游戏驿站。“让我有点震惊的是精神错乱的定义，即一遍又一遍地做同样的事情，每次都希望有不同的结果，而空头不断回来，”他说。“[游戏驿站公牛]基思·吉尔和他的Reddit攻略不断挤压他们，而且它一直在发挥作用。”</blockquote></p><p> To beat the short sellers, the Reddit crowd needs to hold together, but the community has been showing cracks at times. The two meme stocks with the most determined fan bases—GameStop and AMC—still have enormous armies of core believers who do not seem easily swayed. But other names seem to have more-fickle backers. Several stocks caught up in the meme madness have come crashing down to earth.Bed Bath &amp; Beyond(BBBY) spiked twice—in late January and early June—but now trades only slightly above its mid-January levels. People who bought during the upswings have lost money.</p><p><blockquote>为了击败卖空者，Reddit人群需要团结一致，但社区有时会出现裂痕。拥有最坚定粉丝群的两只模因股票——游戏驿站和AMC——仍然拥有庞大的核心信徒大军，他们似乎不容易动摇。但其他名字似乎有更多善变的支持者。几只陷入迷因疯狂的股票已经暴跌。Bed Bath&amp;Beyond(BBBY)在1月底和6月初两次飙升，但现在的交易价格仅略高于1月中旬的水平。在上涨期间买入的人已经赔钱了。</blockquote></p><p> Distrust has spread, and some traders worry that wallstreetbets— the original Reddit message board that inspired the GameStop frenzy—has grown so fast that it has lost its original spirit, and potentially grown vulnerable to manipulation. Some have moved to other message boards, like r/superstonk, in hopes of reclaiming the old community’s flavor.</p><p><blockquote>不信任已经蔓延，一些交易员担心wallstreetbets——最初引发游戏驿站狂热的Reddit留言板——发展如此之快，以至于失去了最初的精神，并可能变得容易受到操纵。一些人已经转移到其他留言板，如r/superstonk，希望恢复旧社区的风味。</blockquote></p><p> Travis Rehl, the founder of social-media tracking company Hype Equity, says that he tries to separate possible manipulators from more organic investor sentiment. Hype Equity is usually hired by public-relations firms representing companies that are being talked about online, he says. Now, he sees a growing trend of stocks that suddenly come up on message boards, receive positive chatter, and then disappear.</p><p><blockquote>社交媒体跟踪公司Hype Equity的创始人特拉维斯·雷尔(Travis Rehl)表示，他试图将可能的操纵者与更有机的投资者情绪区分开来。他说，炒作股权通常是由代表网上谈论的公司的公关公司雇佣的。现在，他看到越来越多的股票突然出现在留言板上，收到积极的议论，然后消失。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “It’s called into question what is a true discussion versus what is something that somebody just wants to pump,” he says. The moderators of wallstreetbets forbid market manipulation on the platform, and Rehl say they appear to work hard to police misinformation. The moderators did not respond to a request from&nbsp;Barron’s&nbsp;for comment.</p><p><blockquote>“这引发了人们对什么是真正的讨论与什么是某人只是想炒作的讨论的质疑，”他说。wallstreetbets的版主禁止在该平台上进行市场操纵，Rehl表示，他们似乎正在努力监管错误信息。主持人没有回应《巴伦周刊》的置评请求。</blockquote></p><p> “If you can create enough buzz to get a stock that goes up 10%, 20%, even 50% in a short period of time, there’s a tremendous incentive to do that,” Sosnick says.</p><p><blockquote>索斯尼克表示：“如果你能制造足够的轰动效应，让股票在短时间内上涨10%、20%甚至50%，那么就有巨大的动力这样做。”</blockquote></p><p> The Securities and Exchange Commission is watching for funny business on the message boards. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and some members of Congress have discussed changing market rules with the intention of adding transparency protecting retail traders—although changes could also anger the retail crowd if they slow down trading or make it more expensive.</p><p><blockquote>证券交易委员会正在留言板上关注有趣的事情。美国证券交易委员会主席加里·詹斯勒(Gary Gensler)和一些国会议员讨论了改变市场规则，旨在增加保护零售交易者的透明度——尽管如果这些变化减慢交易速度或提高交易成本，也可能会激怒散户。</blockquote></p><p> Regulations aren’t the only thing that could deflate this trend. Dan Egan, vice president of behavioral finance and investing at fintech Betterment, thinks the momentum may run out of steam in September. Even “apes” have responsibilities. “Kids start going back to schools; parents are free to go to work again,” he says. “That’s the next time there’s going to be some oxygen pulled out of the room.”</p><p><blockquote>监管并不是唯一可能抑制这一趋势的因素。fintech Betterment行为金融和投资副总裁丹·伊根(Dan Egan)认为，这一势头可能会在9月份失去动力。即使是“猿”也有责任。“孩子们开始回到学校；父母可以再次自由地去工作，”他说。“那是下一次从房间里抽出一些氧气的时候。”</blockquote></p><p> Traditional investors may be tempted to write off the entire phenomenon as temporary madness inspired by lockdowns and free government money. But that would be a mistake. If zero-commission brokerages and fun with GameStop broke down barriers for millions of new investors to open accounts, it’s almost certainly a good thing, as long as most people bet with money they don’t need immediately. Many new retail traders say they are teaching themselves how to trade, and have begun to diversify their holdings.</p><p><blockquote>传统投资者可能会倾向于将整个现象视为由封锁和免费政府资金激发的暂时疯狂。但那将是一个错误。如果零佣金经纪公司和游戏驿站的乐趣打破了数百万新投资者开户的障碍，这几乎肯定是一件好事，只要大多数人用他们并不立即需要的钱下注。许多新零售交易员表示，他们正在自学如何交易，并已开始分散持股。</blockquote></p><p> In one form or another, this is the future client base of Wall Street.</p><p><blockquote>以这样或那样的形式，这就是华尔街未来的客户群。</blockquote></p><p> Arizona State University professor Hendrik Bessembinder published groundbreaking&nbsp;research&nbsp;in 2018 that found that “a randomly selected stock in a randomly selected month is more likely to lose money than make money.” In short, picking single stocks and holding a concentrated portfolio tends to be a losing strategy.</p><p><blockquote>亚利桑那州立大学教授Hendrik Bessembinder在2018年发表了开创性的研究，发现“在随机选择的月份随机选择的股票更有可能亏损而不是赚钱。”简而言之，挑选单一股票并持有集中的投资组合往往是一种失败的策略。</blockquote></p><p> Even so, he’s encouraged by the new wave of trading. “I welcome the increase in retail trading, the idea of the stock market being a place with wide participation,” Bessembinder says. “Economists can’t tell people they shouldn’t get some fun.”</p><p><blockquote>即便如此，他还是受到了新一波交易的鼓舞。“我欢迎零售交易的增加，以及股票市场是一个广泛参与的地方的想法，”贝森宾德说。“经济学家不能告诉人们他们不应该找点乐子。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Meme Stock Trade Is Far From Over. What Investors Need to Know.<blockquote>模因股票交易还远未结束。投资者需要知道的。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Meme Stock Trade Is Far From Over. What Investors Need to Know.<blockquote>模因股票交易还远未结束。投资者需要知道的。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-11 09:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>It seemed to be only a matter of time.</p><p><blockquote>这似乎只是时间问题。</blockquote></p><p> When GameStop (ticker: GME), BlackBerry (BB), and even the desiccated carcass of Blockbuster suddenly sprang to life in January, the clock was already ticking for when they would crash again. Would it be hours, days, or weeks?</p><p><blockquote>当游戏驿站（股票代码：GME）、黑莓（BB），甚至百视达（Blockbuster）的干涸尸体在一月份突然复活时，他们再次崩溃的时间已经在滴答作响。是几个小时、几天还是几周？</blockquote></p><p> It has now been half a year, and the core “meme stocks” are still trading at levels considered outrageous by people who have studied them for years. New names like&nbsp;Clover Health Investments(CLOV) and&nbsp;Newegg Commerce(NEGG) have recently popped up on message boards, and their stocks have popped, too.</p><p><blockquote>现在已经半年了，核心“模因股”的交易水平仍然被研究它们多年的人认为令人发指。Clover Health Investments(CLOV)和Newegg Commerce(NEGG)等新名字最近出现在留言板上，它们的股票也随之上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The collective efforts of millions of retail traders—long derided as “the dumb money”—have successfully held stocks aloft and forced naysayers to capitulate.</p><p><blockquote>数百万散户交易者——长期以来被嘲笑为“愚蠢的钱”——的集体努力成功地保持了股票的高位，并迫使反对者投降。</blockquote></p><p> That is true even as the companies they are betting on have shown scant signs of transforming their businesses, or turning profits that might justify their valuations. BlackBerry burned cash in its latest quarter and warned that its key cybersecurity division would hit the low end of its revenue guidance; the stock dipped on the news but has still more than doubled in the past year.</p><p><blockquote>尽管他们押注的公司几乎没有表现出业务转型或扭亏为盈的迹象，但情况确实如此。黑莓在最近一个季度烧钱，并警告其关键的网络安全部门将触及收入指引的低端；消息传出后，该股下跌，但在过去一年中仍上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> While trading volume at the big brokers has come down slightly from its February peak, it remains two to three times as high as it was before the pandemic. And a startling amount of that activity is occurring in stocks favored by retail traders. The average daily value of shares traded in&nbsp;AMC Entertainment Holdings(AMC), for example, reached $13.1 billion in June, more than&nbsp;Apple’s(AAPL) $9.5 billion and Amazon.com’s (AMZN) $10.3 billion.</p><p><blockquote>尽管大型经纪商的交易量较2月份的峰值略有下降，但仍是大流行前的两到三倍。散户交易者青睐的股票中发生了数量惊人的此类活动。例如，AMC院线控股公司(AMC)6月份股票日均交易价值达到131亿美元，超过苹果(AAPL)的95亿美元和亚马逊(AMZN)的103亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Even as the coronavirus fades in the U.S., most new traders say they are committed to the hobby they learned during lockdown—58% of day traders in a Betterment survey said they are planning to trade even more in the future, and only 12% plan to trade less. Amateur pandemic bakers have stopped kneading sourdough loaves; traders are only getting hungrier.</p><p><blockquote>即使冠状病毒在美国消退，大多数新交易者表示，他们仍致力于他们在封锁期间学到的爱好——在一项Betterment调查中，58%的日内交易者表示，他们计划在未来进行更多交易，只有12%的人计划减少交易。业余疫情面包师已经停止揉酸面团面包；交易者只会越来越饥渴。</blockquote></p><p> A sustained bear market would spoil such an appetite, as it did when the dot-com bubble burst. For now, dips are reasons to hold or buy.</p><p><blockquote>持续的熊市会破坏这种胃口，就像互联网泡沫破裂时一样。就目前而言，下跌是持有或买入的理由。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25a79e71371c165f9a3a5085931fc487\" tg-width=\"979\" tg-height=\"649\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> “I’ve seen that the ‘buy the dip’ sentiment hasn’t relented for a moment,” wrote Brandon Luczek, an electronics technician for the U.S. Navy who trades with friends online, in an email to&nbsp;Barron’s.</p><p><blockquote>“我发现‘逢低买入’的情绪一刻也没有减弱，”与朋友在线交易的美国海军电子技术员布兰登·卢泽克(Brandon Luczek)在给《巴伦周刊》的电子邮件中写道。</blockquote></p><p> The meme stock surge has been propelled by a rise in trading by retail investors. In 2020, online brokers signed clients at a record pace, with more than 10 million people opening new accounts. That record will almost certainly be broken in 2021. Brokers had already added more than 10 million accounts less than halfway into the year, some of the top firms have disclosed.</p><p><blockquote>散户投资者交易量的增加推动了模因股票的飙升。2020年，在线经纪商以创纪录的速度签约客户，新开户人数超过1000万人。这一纪录几乎肯定会在2021年被打破。一些顶级公司透露，今年不到一半，经纪商就已经增加了超过1000万个账户。</blockquote></p><p> Meme stocks are both the cart and the horse of this phenomenon. Their sudden price spikes are driven by new investors, and then that action drives even more new people to invest. Millions of people downloaded investing apps in late January and early February just to be a part of the fun. A recent&nbsp;Charles Schwab(SCHW) survey found that 15% of all current traders began investing after 2020.</p><p><blockquote>模因股票既是这一现象的马车，也是马。它们的价格突然飙升是由新投资者推动的，然后这种行为会推动更多的新人投资。数百万人在一月底和二月初下载了投资应用程序，只是为了享受乐趣。嘉信理财(SCHW)最近的一项调查发现，15%的当前交易者在2020年之后开始投资。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/167386c6881a258922ad62caaf7a05f4\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e29e3041b91070252ab9063d1a11fa2\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"642\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9cc1c0bd6368721c0eca87e25719f16\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"641\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The most prominent player in the surge is Robinhood, which said it had added 5.5 million funded accounts in the first quarter alone. But it isn’t alone. Fidelity, for instance, announced that it had attracted 1.6 million new customers under the age of 35 in the first quarter, 223% more than a year before.</p><p><blockquote>这一激增中最突出的参与者是Robinhood，该公司表示仅在第一季度就增加了550万个受资助账户。但它并不孤单。例如，富达宣布第一季度吸引了160万35岁以下的新客户，比去年同期增长了223%。</blockquote></p><p> Under pressure from Robinhood’s zero-commission model, all of the major brokers cut commissions to zero in 2019. That opened the floodgates to a new group of customers—one that may not have as much spare cash to trade but is more active and diverse than its predecessors. And the brokers are cashing in. Fidelity is hoping to attract investors before they even have driver’s licenses, allowing children as young as 13 to open trading accounts. Robinhood is riding the momentum to an initial public offering that analysts expect to value it at more than 10 times its revenue.</p><p><blockquote>在Robinhood零佣金模式的压力下，所有主要经纪商都在2019年将佣金降至零。这为新的客户群体打开了闸门——他们可能没有那么多闲钱可供交易，但比前辈更加活跃和多样化。经纪人正在兑现。富达希望在投资者拥有驾驶执照之前就吸引他们，允许年仅13岁的儿童开设交易账户。Robinhood正在乘势进行首次公开募股，分析师预计其估值将超过其收入的10倍。</blockquote></p><p> These new customers act differently than their older peers. For years, there was a “big gravitation toward ETFs,” says Chris Larkin, head of trading at E*Trade, which is now owned by Morgan Stanley (MS). But picking single stocks is clearly “the big story of 2021.”</p><p><blockquote>这些新客户的行为与老客户不同。E*Trade（现归摩根士丹利(MS)所有）交易主管克里斯·拉金(Chris Larkin)表示，多年来，“ETF的吸引力很大”。但挑选个股显然是“2021年的大新闻”。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, equity exchange-traded funds are still doing well, as investors around the world bet on the pandemic recovery and avoid weak bond yields.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，股票交易所交易基金仍然表现良好，因为世界各地的投资者都押注于疫情复苏，并避免债券收益率疲软。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But ETFs don’t light up the message boards like stocks do. Not that it has been a one-way ride for the top names. GameStop did dip in February, and Wall Street enjoyed a moment of schadenfreude. It didn’t last.</p><p><blockquote>但ETF不像股票那样点亮留言板。对于顶级品牌来说，这并不是一条单程之旅。游戏驿站确实在二月份下跌，华尔街享受了一段幸灾乐祸的时刻。这并没有持续多久。</blockquote></p><p> “Like cicadas, meme traders returned in a wild blaze of activity after being seemingly underground for several months,” wrote Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers. Sosnick believes that the meme stocks tend to trade inversely to cryptocurrencies, because their fans rotate from one to the other as the momentum shifts.</p><p><blockquote>盈透证券(Interactive Brokers)首席策略师史蒂夫·索斯尼克(Steve Sosnick)写道：“就像蝉一样，模因交易者在看似地下几个月后，又以疯狂的活动回归。”索斯尼克认为，模因股票的交易往往与加密货币相反，因为随着势头的变化，它们的粉丝会从一种股票转向另一种股票。</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t think it’s strictly a coincidence that meme stocks roared back to life after a significant correction in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies,” he wrote.</p><p><blockquote>他写道：“我认为，在比特币和其他加密货币大幅调整后，模因股票重新焕发生机，这绝非巧合。”</blockquote></p><p> Sosnick considers meme stocks a “sector unto themselves,” one that he segregates on his computer monitor away from other stock tickers.</p><p><blockquote>索斯尼克认为模因股票是一个“独立的行业”，他在电脑显示器上将其与其他股票代码分开。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, Wall Street’s reaction to the meme stock revolution has been to isolate the parts of the market that the pros deem irrational. Most short sellers won’t touch the stocks, and analysts are dropping coverage.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，华尔街对模因股票革命的反应是孤立市场中专业人士认为非理性的部分。大多数卖空者不会碰这些股票，分析师也放弃了报道。</blockquote></p><p> But Wall Street can’t swat the retail army away like cicadas, or count on them disappearing for the next 17 years. Stock trading has permanently shifted. This year, retail activity accounts for 24% of equity volume, up from 15% in 2019. Adherents to the new creed are not passive observers willing to let Wall Street manage the markets.</p><p><blockquote>但华尔街不能像蝉一样将零售大军赶走，也不能指望它们在未来17年消失。股票交易已经永久转移。今年，零售活动占股本的24%，高于2019年的15%。新信条的追随者并不是愿意让华尔街管理市场的被动观察者。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/710e642d3b685b74f8c9dcaf46ef3e0b\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"643\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> “What this really reflects is a reversal of the trends that we saw toward less and less engagement with individual companies,” says Joshua Mitts, a professor at Columbia Law School specializing in securities markets. “Technology is bringing the average investor closer to the companies in which he or she invests, and that’s just taking on new and unpredictable forms.”</p><p><blockquote>哥伦比亚大学法学院专门研究证券市场的教授约书亚·米茨(Joshua Mitts)表示：“这真正反映了我们看到的与个别公司的接触越来越少的趋势的逆转。”“技术正在拉近普通投资者与他或她投资的公司的距离，而这只是以新的、不可预测的形式出现。”</blockquote></p><p> The swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way.</p><p><blockquote>你得到的秋千肯定会让你有某种感觉。</blockquote></p><p> — Matt Kohrs, 26, who streams stock analysis daily on YouTube</p><p><blockquote>——Matt Kohrs，26岁，每天在YouTube上播放股票分析</blockquote></p><p> It is now changing the lives of those who got in early and are still riding the names higher.</p><p><blockquote>它现在正在改变那些早期进入的人的生活，并且仍然名气更高。</blockquote></p><p> Take Matt Kohrs, who had invested in AMC Entertainment early. He quit his job as a programmer in New York in February, moved to Philadelphia, and started streaming&nbsp;stock analysis on YouTube&nbsp;for seven hours a day.</p><p><blockquote>以马特·科尔斯（Matt Kohrs）为例，他很早就投资了AMC院线。今年2月，他辞去了在纽约的程序员工作，搬到了费城，并开始每天在YouTube上播放7个小时的股票分析。</blockquote></p><p> With 350,000 YouTube followers, it’s paying the bills. With his earnings from ads and from the stock, Kohrs says he can pull down roughly the same salary he made before. But he also knows that relying on earnings from stocks like this is nothing like a 9-to-5 job.</p><p><blockquote>它在YouTube上拥有35万粉丝，正在支付账单。科尔斯表示，凭借广告和股票的收入，他可以降低与以前大致相同的工资。但他也知道，像这样依赖股票的收益与朝九晚五的工作完全不同。</blockquote></p><p> “The swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>“你得到的挥杆肯定会让你有某种感觉，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Companies are starting to react more aggressively, too. They are either embracing their new owners or paying meme-ologists to understand the emoji-filled language of the new Wall Street so they can ward them off or appease them.</p><p><blockquote>公司也开始做出更积极的反应。他们要么拥抱他们的新主人，要么付钱给模因学家来理解新华尔街充满表情符号的语言，这样他们就可以避开他们或安抚他们。</blockquote></p><p> AMC even canceled a proposed equity raise this past week because the company apparently didn’t like the vibes it was getting from the Reddit crowd. AMC has already quintupled its share count over the past year. CEO Adam Aron tweeted that he had seen “many yes, many no” reactions to his proposal to issue 25 million more shares, so it will be canceled instead of being presented for a vote at AMC’s annual meeting later this month. The company did not respond to a question on how it had polled shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>AMC甚至在过去一周取消了拟议的股权融资，因为该公司显然不喜欢Reddit人群的氛围。过去一年，AMC的股票数量已经增加了五倍。首席执行官Adam Aron在推特上表示，他看到了对他增发2500万股股票的提议“许多是，许多不是”的反应，因此该提议将被取消，而不是在本月晚些时候的AMC年会上进行投票。该公司没有回应有关如何对股东进行民意调查的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Forget the boardroom. Corporate policy is now being determined in the chat room.</p><p><blockquote>忘了会议室吧。公司政策现在正在聊天室中确定。</blockquote></p><p> Big investors are spending more time tracking social-media discussions about stocks. Bank of America found in a survey this year that about 25% of institutions had already been tracking social-media sentiment, but that about 40% are interested in using it going forward.</p><p><blockquote>大投资者花更多时间跟踪社交媒体上有关股票的讨论。美国银行在今年的一项调查中发现，大约25%的机构已经在跟踪社交媒体情绪，但大约40%的机构有兴趣在未来使用它。</blockquote></p><p> In the past few months, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and J.P. Morgan have all produced reports on how to trade around the retail action, coming to somewhat different conclusions.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的几个月里，美国银行、摩根士丹利和摩根大通都发布了关于如何围绕散户行为进行交易的报告，得出了有些不同的结论。</blockquote></p><p> There can be “alpha in the signal,” as Morgan Stanley put it, but it can take some intense number-crunching to get there. Not all message-board chatter leads to sustained price gains, of course, and retail order flow cannot easily be separated from institutional flow without substantial data analysis. For investors with the tools to pinpoint which stocks retail investors are buying and which they are selling, J.P. Morgan suggests going long on the 20% of stocks with the most buying interest and short on the top 20% in selling interest.</p><p><blockquote>正如摩根士丹利所说，信号中可能存在“阿尔法”，但可能需要一些激烈的数字运算才能达到这一目标。当然，并非所有留言板上的喋喋不休都会导致价格持续上涨，而且在没有大量数据分析的情况下，零售订单流无法轻易与机构订单流分开。对于拥有工具来确定散户投资者正在买入和卖出哪些股票的投资者，摩根大通建议做多买入兴趣最高的20%的股票，做空卖出兴趣最高的20%的股票。</blockquote></p><p> For now, many of the institutions buying data on social-media sentiment appear to be trying to reduce their risks, as opposed to scouting new opportunities, according to Boris Spiwak of alternative data firm Thinknum, which offers products that track social-media sentiment. “They see it as almost like an insurance policy, to limit their downside risks,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>提供跟踪社交媒体情绪产品的另类数据公司Thinknum的鲍里斯·斯皮瓦克(Boris Spiwak)表示，目前，许多购买社交媒体情绪数据的机构似乎都在试图降低风险，而不是寻找新的机会。“他们认为这几乎就像一份保险单，以限制他们的下行风险，”他说。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For retail traders, the method isn’t always scientific. The action is sustained by a community ethos. And the force behind it is as much emotional and moral as financial.</p><p><blockquote>对于散户来说，这种方法并不总是科学的。这一行动得到了社区精神的支持。其背后的力量既是经济上的，也是情感上的和道德上的。</blockquote></p><p> New investors say they are motivated by a desire to prove themselves and punish the old guard as much as by profits. They learn from one another about the market, sometimes amplifying or debunking conspiracy theories about Wall Street. Some link the meme-stock movement to continued mistrust of big financial institutions stemming from the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p><blockquote>新投资者表示，他们的动机是证明自己和惩罚保守派的愿望，就像利润一样。他们互相了解市场，有时会放大或揭穿有关华尔街的阴谋论。一些人将模因股票走势与2008年金融危机引发的对大型金融机构的持续不信任联系起来。</blockquote></p><p> “Wall Street brought our economy to its knees, and no one ever got in trouble for it,” says the 26-year-old Kohrs. “So, I think they view this as not only can we make money, but we can also make these hedge funds on Wall Street pay.”</p><p><blockquote>“华尔街让我们的经济陷入瘫痪，没有人因此惹上麻烦，”26岁的科尔斯说。“所以，我认为他们认为这不仅可以让我们赚钱，还可以让华尔街的这些对冲基金付钱。”</blockquote></p><p> Claire Hirschberg is a 28-year-old union organizer who bought about $50 worth of GameStop stock on Robinhood in January after hearing about it from friends. She liked the idea, but what really got her excited about it was the reaction of her father, a longtime money manager. “He was so mad I had bought GameStop and was refusing to sell,” she says, laughing. “And that just makes me want to hold it forever.”</p><p><blockquote>克莱尔·赫希伯格(Claire Hirschberg)是一名28岁的工会组织者，她在从朋友那里听说此事后，于1月份在Robinhood上购买了价值约50美元的游戏驿站股票。她喜欢这个想法，但真正让她兴奋的是她父亲的反应，他父亲是一位长期的资金经理。“他对我买下游戏驿站并拒绝出售感到非常生气，”她笑着说。“这让我想永远拥有它。”</blockquote></p><p> Just like old Wall Street has rituals and codes, the new one does, too. A new investment banking employee learns quickly that you don’t wear a Ferragamo tie until after you make associate. You never leave the office until the managing director does, and you don’t complain about the hours. And the bad guys are the regulators and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, and not in that order.</p><p><blockquote>就像旧华尔街有仪式和准则一样，新华尔街也有。一位新的投资银行员工很快就会知道，直到你成为合伙人后，你才会戴菲拉格慕领带。在总经理离开之前，你永远不会离开办公室，你也不会抱怨工作时间。坏人是监管者和参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦，而不是这个顺序。</blockquote></p><p> The new trading desk—the apps that millions of retail traders now use and the message boards where they congregate—have unspoken rules, too. Publicly acknowledging financial losses is a valiant act, evidence of internal fortitude and belief in the group. You don’t take yourself seriously and you don’t police language. You are part of an army of “apes” or “retards.” You hold through the crashes, even if it means you might lose everything. And the bad guys are the short sellers, the market makers, and the Wall Street elites, in that order.</p><p><blockquote>新的交易台——数百万零售交易者现在使用的应用程序和他们聚集的留言板——也有潜规则。公开承认经济损失是一种勇敢的行为，是内部坚韧和对集团信念的证明。你不把自己当回事，也不监管语言。你是“猿”或“弱智”大军的一员。你坚持住了崩溃，即使这意味着你可能会失去一切。坏人依次是卖空者、做市商和华尔街精英。</blockquote></p><p> The group action is not just for moral support. The trading strategy depends on people keeping up the buying pressure to force a short squeeze or to buy bullish options that trigger what’s known as a gamma squeeze.</p><p><blockquote>群体行动不仅仅是为了道义上的支持。交易策略取决于人们保持购买压力以迫使空头挤压或购买看涨期权，从而触发所谓的伽马挤压。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75d79c78a14cc8f297e17397cc54bdb5\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\"><span>Keith Gill became the face of the Reddit army of retail traders pushing shares of GameStop higher when he appeared virtually before a House Financial Services Committee hearing in February.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>基思·吉尔(Keith Gill)二月份几乎出现在众议院金融服务委员会听证会上，成为Reddit零售交易员大军的代言人，推动游戏驿站股价走高。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Many short sellers say they won’t touch these stocks anymore. But clearly, others aren’t taking that advice and are giving the meme movement oxygen by repeatedly betting against the stocks. AMC’s short interest was at 17% of the stock’s float in mid-June, down from 28% in January, but not by much.</p><p><blockquote>许多卖空者表示，他们不会再碰这些股票了。但显然，其他人并没有采纳这一建议，而是通过反复做空股票来为模因运动提供氧气。6月中旬，AMC的空头利息占该股流通量的17%，低于1月份的28%，但幅度不大。</blockquote></p><p> As the price rises, the shorts can’t help themselves. They start “drooling, with flames coming out of their ears,” says Michael Pachter, a Wedbush Securities analyst who has covered GameStop for years. “What’s kind of shocked me is the definition of insanity, which is doing the same thing over and over and over again and hoping for a different outcome each time, and the shorts keep coming back,” he says. “And [GameStop bull] Keith Gill and his Reddit raiders keep squeezing them, and it keeps working.”</p><p><blockquote>随着价格的上涨，空头们也身不由己。Wedbush Securities分析师Michael Pachter表示，他们开始“流口水，耳朵里冒出火焰”，多年来一直关注游戏驿站。“让我有点震惊的是精神错乱的定义，即一遍又一遍地做同样的事情，每次都希望有不同的结果，而空头不断回来，”他说。“[游戏驿站公牛]基思·吉尔和他的Reddit攻略不断挤压他们，而且它一直在发挥作用。”</blockquote></p><p> To beat the short sellers, the Reddit crowd needs to hold together, but the community has been showing cracks at times. The two meme stocks with the most determined fan bases—GameStop and AMC—still have enormous armies of core believers who do not seem easily swayed. But other names seem to have more-fickle backers. Several stocks caught up in the meme madness have come crashing down to earth.Bed Bath &amp; Beyond(BBBY) spiked twice—in late January and early June—but now trades only slightly above its mid-January levels. People who bought during the upswings have lost money.</p><p><blockquote>为了击败卖空者，Reddit人群需要团结一致，但社区有时会出现裂痕。拥有最坚定粉丝群的两只模因股票——游戏驿站和AMC——仍然拥有庞大的核心信徒大军，他们似乎不容易动摇。但其他名字似乎有更多善变的支持者。几只陷入迷因疯狂的股票已经暴跌。Bed Bath&amp;Beyond(BBBY)在1月底和6月初两次飙升，但现在的交易价格仅略高于1月中旬的水平。在上涨期间买入的人已经赔钱了。</blockquote></p><p> Distrust has spread, and some traders worry that wallstreetbets— the original Reddit message board that inspired the GameStop frenzy—has grown so fast that it has lost its original spirit, and potentially grown vulnerable to manipulation. Some have moved to other message boards, like r/superstonk, in hopes of reclaiming the old community’s flavor.</p><p><blockquote>不信任已经蔓延，一些交易员担心wallstreetbets——最初引发游戏驿站狂热的Reddit留言板——发展如此之快，以至于失去了最初的精神，并可能变得容易受到操纵。一些人已经转移到其他留言板，如r/superstonk，希望恢复旧社区的风味。</blockquote></p><p> Travis Rehl, the founder of social-media tracking company Hype Equity, says that he tries to separate possible manipulators from more organic investor sentiment. Hype Equity is usually hired by public-relations firms representing companies that are being talked about online, he says. Now, he sees a growing trend of stocks that suddenly come up on message boards, receive positive chatter, and then disappear.</p><p><blockquote>社交媒体跟踪公司Hype Equity的创始人特拉维斯·雷尔(Travis Rehl)表示，他试图将可能的操纵者与更有机的投资者情绪区分开来。他说，炒作股权通常是由代表网上谈论的公司的公关公司雇佣的。现在，他看到越来越多的股票突然出现在留言板上，收到积极的议论，然后消失。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “It’s called into question what is a true discussion versus what is something that somebody just wants to pump,” he says. The moderators of wallstreetbets forbid market manipulation on the platform, and Rehl say they appear to work hard to police misinformation. The moderators did not respond to a request from&nbsp;Barron’s&nbsp;for comment.</p><p><blockquote>“这引发了人们对什么是真正的讨论与什么是某人只是想炒作的讨论的质疑，”他说。wallstreetbets的版主禁止在该平台上进行市场操纵，Rehl表示，他们似乎正在努力监管错误信息。主持人没有回应《巴伦周刊》的置评请求。</blockquote></p><p> “If you can create enough buzz to get a stock that goes up 10%, 20%, even 50% in a short period of time, there’s a tremendous incentive to do that,” Sosnick says.</p><p><blockquote>索斯尼克表示：“如果你能制造足够的轰动效应，让股票在短时间内上涨10%、20%甚至50%，那么就有巨大的动力这样做。”</blockquote></p><p> The Securities and Exchange Commission is watching for funny business on the message boards. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and some members of Congress have discussed changing market rules with the intention of adding transparency protecting retail traders—although changes could also anger the retail crowd if they slow down trading or make it more expensive.</p><p><blockquote>证券交易委员会正在留言板上关注有趣的事情。美国证券交易委员会主席加里·詹斯勒(Gary Gensler)和一些国会议员讨论了改变市场规则，旨在增加保护零售交易者的透明度——尽管如果这些变化减慢交易速度或提高交易成本，也可能会激怒散户。</blockquote></p><p> Regulations aren’t the only thing that could deflate this trend. Dan Egan, vice president of behavioral finance and investing at fintech Betterment, thinks the momentum may run out of steam in September. Even “apes” have responsibilities. “Kids start going back to schools; parents are free to go to work again,” he says. “That’s the next time there’s going to be some oxygen pulled out of the room.”</p><p><blockquote>监管并不是唯一可能抑制这一趋势的因素。fintech Betterment行为金融和投资副总裁丹·伊根(Dan Egan)认为，这一势头可能会在9月份失去动力。即使是“猿”也有责任。“孩子们开始回到学校；父母可以再次自由地去工作，”他说。“那是下一次从房间里抽出一些氧气的时候。”</blockquote></p><p> Traditional investors may be tempted to write off the entire phenomenon as temporary madness inspired by lockdowns and free government money. But that would be a mistake. If zero-commission brokerages and fun with GameStop broke down barriers for millions of new investors to open accounts, it’s almost certainly a good thing, as long as most people bet with money they don’t need immediately. Many new retail traders say they are teaching themselves how to trade, and have begun to diversify their holdings.</p><p><blockquote>传统投资者可能会倾向于将整个现象视为由封锁和免费政府资金激发的暂时疯狂。但那将是一个错误。如果零佣金经纪公司和游戏驿站的乐趣打破了数百万新投资者开户的障碍，这几乎肯定是一件好事，只要大多数人用他们并不立即需要的钱下注。许多新零售交易员表示，他们正在自学如何交易，并已开始分散持股。</blockquote></p><p> In one form or another, this is the future client base of Wall Street.</p><p><blockquote>以这样或那样的形式，这就是华尔街未来的客户群。</blockquote></p><p> Arizona State University professor Hendrik Bessembinder published groundbreaking&nbsp;research&nbsp;in 2018 that found that “a randomly selected stock in a randomly selected month is more likely to lose money than make money.” In short, picking single stocks and holding a concentrated portfolio tends to be a losing strategy.</p><p><blockquote>亚利桑那州立大学教授Hendrik Bessembinder在2018年发表了开创性的研究，发现“在随机选择的月份随机选择的股票更有可能亏损而不是赚钱。”简而言之，挑选单一股票并持有集中的投资组合往往是一种失败的策略。</blockquote></p><p> Even so, he’s encouraged by the new wave of trading. “I welcome the increase in retail trading, the idea of the stock market being a place with wide participation,” Bessembinder says. “Economists can’t tell people they shouldn’t get some fun.”</p><p><blockquote>即便如此，他还是受到了新一波交易的鼓舞。“我欢迎零售交易的增加，以及股票市场是一个广泛参与的地方的想法，”贝森宾德说。“经济学家不能告诉人们他们不应该找点乐子。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-meme-stock-trade-is-far-from-over-what-investors-need-to-know-51625875247?mod=hp_HERO\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"WKHS":"Workhorse Group, Inc.","AMC":"AMC院线","NEGG":"Newegg Comm Inc.","CARV":"卡弗储蓄","GME":"游戏驿站","BBBY":"Bed Bath & Beyond, Inc.","BB":"黑莓","SCHW":"嘉信理财","CLOV":"Clover Health Corp"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-meme-stock-trade-is-far-from-over-what-investors-need-to-know-51625875247?mod=hp_HERO","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112201050","content_text":"It seemed to be only a matter of time.\nWhen GameStop (ticker: GME), BlackBerry (BB), and even the desiccated carcass of Blockbuster suddenly sprang to life in January, the clock was already ticking for when they would crash again. Would it be hours, days, or weeks?\nIt has now been half a year, and the core “meme stocks” are still trading at levels considered outrageous by people who have studied them for years. New names like Clover Health Investments(CLOV) and Newegg Commerce(NEGG) have recently popped up on message boards, and their stocks have popped, too.\nThe collective efforts of millions of retail traders—long derided as “the dumb money”—have successfully held stocks aloft and forced naysayers to capitulate.\nThat is true even as the companies they are betting on have shown scant signs of transforming their businesses, or turning profits that might justify their valuations. BlackBerry burned cash in its latest quarter and warned that its key cybersecurity division would hit the low end of its revenue guidance; the stock dipped on the news but has still more than doubled in the past year.\nWhile trading volume at the big brokers has come down slightly from its February peak, it remains two to three times as high as it was before the pandemic. And a startling amount of that activity is occurring in stocks favored by retail traders. The average daily value of shares traded in AMC Entertainment Holdings(AMC), for example, reached $13.1 billion in June, more than Apple’s(AAPL) $9.5 billion and Amazon.com’s (AMZN) $10.3 billion.\nEven as the coronavirus fades in the U.S., most new traders say they are committed to the hobby they learned during lockdown—58% of day traders in a Betterment survey said they are planning to trade even more in the future, and only 12% plan to trade less. Amateur pandemic bakers have stopped kneading sourdough loaves; traders are only getting hungrier.\nA sustained bear market would spoil such an appetite, as it did when the dot-com bubble burst. For now, dips are reasons to hold or buy.\n\n“I’ve seen that the ‘buy the dip’ sentiment hasn’t relented for a moment,” wrote Brandon Luczek, an electronics technician for the U.S. Navy who trades with friends online, in an email to Barron’s.\nThe meme stock surge has been propelled by a rise in trading by retail investors. In 2020, online brokers signed clients at a record pace, with more than 10 million people opening new accounts. That record will almost certainly be broken in 2021. Brokers had already added more than 10 million accounts less than halfway into the year, some of the top firms have disclosed.\nMeme stocks are both the cart and the horse of this phenomenon. Their sudden price spikes are driven by new investors, and then that action drives even more new people to invest. Millions of people downloaded investing apps in late January and early February just to be a part of the fun. A recent Charles Schwab(SCHW) survey found that 15% of all current traders began investing after 2020.\n\nThe most prominent player in the surge is Robinhood, which said it had added 5.5 million funded accounts in the first quarter alone. But it isn’t alone. Fidelity, for instance, announced that it had attracted 1.6 million new customers under the age of 35 in the first quarter, 223% more than a year before.\nUnder pressure from Robinhood’s zero-commission model, all of the major brokers cut commissions to zero in 2019. That opened the floodgates to a new group of customers—one that may not have as much spare cash to trade but is more active and diverse than its predecessors. And the brokers are cashing in. Fidelity is hoping to attract investors before they even have driver’s licenses, allowing children as young as 13 to open trading accounts. Robinhood is riding the momentum to an initial public offering that analysts expect to value it at more than 10 times its revenue.\nThese new customers act differently than their older peers. For years, there was a “big gravitation toward ETFs,” says Chris Larkin, head of trading at E*Trade, which is now owned by Morgan Stanley (MS). But picking single stocks is clearly “the big story of 2021.”\nTo be sure, equity exchange-traded funds are still doing well, as investors around the world bet on the pandemic recovery and avoid weak bond yields.\nBut ETFs don’t light up the message boards like stocks do. Not that it has been a one-way ride for the top names. GameStop did dip in February, and Wall Street enjoyed a moment of schadenfreude. It didn’t last.\n“Like cicadas, meme traders returned in a wild blaze of activity after being seemingly underground for several months,” wrote Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers. Sosnick believes that the meme stocks tend to trade inversely to cryptocurrencies, because their fans rotate from one to the other as the momentum shifts.\n“I don’t think it’s strictly a coincidence that meme stocks roared back to life after a significant correction in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies,” he wrote.\nSosnick considers meme stocks a “sector unto themselves,” one that he segregates on his computer monitor away from other stock tickers.\nIndeed, Wall Street’s reaction to the meme stock revolution has been to isolate the parts of the market that the pros deem irrational. Most short sellers won’t touch the stocks, and analysts are dropping coverage.\nBut Wall Street can’t swat the retail army away like cicadas, or count on them disappearing for the next 17 years. Stock trading has permanently shifted. This year, retail activity accounts for 24% of equity volume, up from 15% in 2019. Adherents to the new creed are not passive observers willing to let Wall Street manage the markets.\n\n“What this really reflects is a reversal of the trends that we saw toward less and less engagement with individual companies,” says Joshua Mitts, a professor at Columbia Law School specializing in securities markets. “Technology is bringing the average investor closer to the companies in which he or she invests, and that’s just taking on new and unpredictable forms.”\nThe swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way.\n— Matt Kohrs, 26, who streams stock analysis daily on YouTube\nIt is now changing the lives of those who got in early and are still riding the names higher.\nTake Matt Kohrs, who had invested in AMC Entertainment early. He quit his job as a programmer in New York in February, moved to Philadelphia, and started streaming stock analysis on YouTube for seven hours a day.\nWith 350,000 YouTube followers, it’s paying the bills. With his earnings from ads and from the stock, Kohrs says he can pull down roughly the same salary he made before. But he also knows that relying on earnings from stocks like this is nothing like a 9-to-5 job.\n“The swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way,” he says.\nCompanies are starting to react more aggressively, too. They are either embracing their new owners or paying meme-ologists to understand the emoji-filled language of the new Wall Street so they can ward them off or appease them.\nAMC even canceled a proposed equity raise this past week because the company apparently didn’t like the vibes it was getting from the Reddit crowd. AMC has already quintupled its share count over the past year. CEO Adam Aron tweeted that he had seen “many yes, many no” reactions to his proposal to issue 25 million more shares, so it will be canceled instead of being presented for a vote at AMC’s annual meeting later this month. The company did not respond to a question on how it had polled shareholders.\nForget the boardroom. Corporate policy is now being determined in the chat room.\nBig investors are spending more time tracking social-media discussions about stocks. Bank of America found in a survey this year that about 25% of institutions had already been tracking social-media sentiment, but that about 40% are interested in using it going forward.\nIn the past few months, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and J.P. Morgan have all produced reports on how to trade around the retail action, coming to somewhat different conclusions.\nThere can be “alpha in the signal,” as Morgan Stanley put it, but it can take some intense number-crunching to get there. Not all message-board chatter leads to sustained price gains, of course, and retail order flow cannot easily be separated from institutional flow without substantial data analysis. For investors with the tools to pinpoint which stocks retail investors are buying and which they are selling, J.P. Morgan suggests going long on the 20% of stocks with the most buying interest and short on the top 20% in selling interest.\nFor now, many of the institutions buying data on social-media sentiment appear to be trying to reduce their risks, as opposed to scouting new opportunities, according to Boris Spiwak of alternative data firm Thinknum, which offers products that track social-media sentiment. “They see it as almost like an insurance policy, to limit their downside risks,” he says.\nFor retail traders, the method isn’t always scientific. The action is sustained by a community ethos. And the force behind it is as much emotional and moral as financial.\nNew investors say they are motivated by a desire to prove themselves and punish the old guard as much as by profits. They learn from one another about the market, sometimes amplifying or debunking conspiracy theories about Wall Street. Some link the meme-stock movement to continued mistrust of big financial institutions stemming from the 2008 financial crisis.\n“Wall Street brought our economy to its knees, and no one ever got in trouble for it,” says the 26-year-old Kohrs. “So, I think they view this as not only can we make money, but we can also make these hedge funds on Wall Street pay.”\nClaire Hirschberg is a 28-year-old union organizer who bought about $50 worth of GameStop stock on Robinhood in January after hearing about it from friends. She liked the idea, but what really got her excited about it was the reaction of her father, a longtime money manager. “He was so mad I had bought GameStop and was refusing to sell,” she says, laughing. “And that just makes me want to hold it forever.”\nJust like old Wall Street has rituals and codes, the new one does, too. A new investment banking employee learns quickly that you don’t wear a Ferragamo tie until after you make associate. You never leave the office until the managing director does, and you don’t complain about the hours. And the bad guys are the regulators and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, and not in that order.\nThe new trading desk—the apps that millions of retail traders now use and the message boards where they congregate—have unspoken rules, too. Publicly acknowledging financial losses is a valiant act, evidence of internal fortitude and belief in the group. You don’t take yourself seriously and you don’t police language. You are part of an army of “apes” or “retards.” You hold through the crashes, even if it means you might lose everything. And the bad guys are the short sellers, the market makers, and the Wall Street elites, in that order.\nThe group action is not just for moral support. The trading strategy depends on people keeping up the buying pressure to force a short squeeze or to buy bullish options that trigger what’s known as a gamma squeeze.\nKeith Gill became the face of the Reddit army of retail traders pushing shares of GameStop higher when he appeared virtually before a House Financial Services Committee hearing in February.\nMany short sellers say they won’t touch these stocks anymore. But clearly, others aren’t taking that advice and are giving the meme movement oxygen by repeatedly betting against the stocks. AMC’s short interest was at 17% of the stock’s float in mid-June, down from 28% in January, but not by much.\nAs the price rises, the shorts can’t help themselves. They start “drooling, with flames coming out of their ears,” says Michael Pachter, a Wedbush Securities analyst who has covered GameStop for years. “What’s kind of shocked me is the definition of insanity, which is doing the same thing over and over and over again and hoping for a different outcome each time, and the shorts keep coming back,” he says. “And [GameStop bull] Keith Gill and his Reddit raiders keep squeezing them, and it keeps working.”\nTo beat the short sellers, the Reddit crowd needs to hold together, but the community has been showing cracks at times. The two meme stocks with the most determined fan bases—GameStop and AMC—still have enormous armies of core believers who do not seem easily swayed. But other names seem to have more-fickle backers. Several stocks caught up in the meme madness have come crashing down to earth.Bed Bath & Beyond(BBBY) spiked twice—in late January and early June—but now trades only slightly above its mid-January levels. People who bought during the upswings have lost money.\nDistrust has spread, and some traders worry that wallstreetbets— the original Reddit message board that inspired the GameStop frenzy—has grown so fast that it has lost its original spirit, and potentially grown vulnerable to manipulation. Some have moved to other message boards, like r/superstonk, in hopes of reclaiming the old community’s flavor.\nTravis Rehl, the founder of social-media tracking company Hype Equity, says that he tries to separate possible manipulators from more organic investor sentiment. Hype Equity is usually hired by public-relations firms representing companies that are being talked about online, he says. Now, he sees a growing trend of stocks that suddenly come up on message boards, receive positive chatter, and then disappear.\n“It’s called into question what is a true discussion versus what is something that somebody just wants to pump,” he says. The moderators of wallstreetbets forbid market manipulation on the platform, and Rehl say they appear to work hard to police misinformation. The moderators did not respond to a request from Barron’s for comment.\n“If you can create enough buzz to get a stock that goes up 10%, 20%, even 50% in a short period of time, there’s a tremendous incentive to do that,” Sosnick says.\nThe Securities and Exchange Commission is watching for funny business on the message boards. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and some members of Congress have discussed changing market rules with the intention of adding transparency protecting retail traders—although changes could also anger the retail crowd if they slow down trading or make it more expensive.\nRegulations aren’t the only thing that could deflate this trend. Dan Egan, vice president of behavioral finance and investing at fintech Betterment, thinks the momentum may run out of steam in September. Even “apes” have responsibilities. “Kids start going back to schools; parents are free to go to work again,” he says. “That’s the next time there’s going to be some oxygen pulled out of the room.”\nTraditional investors may be tempted to write off the entire phenomenon as temporary madness inspired by lockdowns and free government money. But that would be a mistake. If zero-commission brokerages and fun with GameStop broke down barriers for millions of new investors to open accounts, it’s almost certainly a good thing, as long as most people bet with money they don’t need immediately. Many new retail traders say they are teaching themselves how to trade, and have begun to diversify their holdings.\nIn one form or another, this is the future client base of Wall Street.\nArizona State University professor Hendrik Bessembinder published groundbreaking research in 2018 that found that “a randomly selected stock in a randomly selected month is more likely to lose money than make money.” In short, picking single stocks and holding a concentrated portfolio tends to be a losing strategy.\nEven so, he’s encouraged by the new wave of trading. “I welcome the increase in retail trading, the idea of the stock market being a place with wide participation,” Bessembinder says. “Economists can’t tell people they shouldn’t get some fun.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BB":0.9,"AMC":0.9,"CARV":0.9,"GME":0.9,"MRIN":0.9,"NEGG":0.9,"SCHW":0.9,"CLOV":0.9,"BBBY":0.9,"WKHS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1519,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148020040,"gmtCreate":1625902782680,"gmtModify":1631891386614,"author":{"id":"3582441430299393","authorId":"3582441430299393","name":"TerranceYee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bad1cb6d60af593e8e18243a352e839e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582441430299393","idStr":"3582441430299393"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok&nbsp;","listText":"Ok&nbsp;","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148020040","repostId":"1177397700","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":354,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":141171152,"gmtCreate":1625844043476,"gmtModify":1631891386619,"author":{"id":"3582441430299393","authorId":"3582441430299393","name":"TerranceYee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bad1cb6d60af593e8e18243a352e839e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582441430299393","idStr":"3582441430299393"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/141171152","repostId":"1173679159","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1173679159","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1625842396,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1173679159?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-09 22:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple shares surges 1.4%,climbing to a new record high.<blockquote>苹果股价飙升1.4%，攀升至历史新高。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1173679159","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Apple shares surges 1.4%,climbing to a new record high.","content":"<p>Apple shares surges&nbsp;1.4%,climbing to a new&nbsp;record high.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价飙升1.4%，攀升至历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ec1879e2b236e7f57fd94e6811ef06e\" tg-width=\"792\" tg-height=\"628\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple shares surges 1.4%,climbing to a new record high.<blockquote>苹果股价飙升1.4%，攀升至历史新高。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple shares surges 1.4%,climbing to a new record high.<blockquote>苹果股价飙升1.4%，攀升至历史新高。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-09 22:53</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple shares surges&nbsp;1.4%,climbing to a new&nbsp;record high.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价飙升1.4%，攀升至历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ec1879e2b236e7f57fd94e6811ef06e\" tg-width=\"792\" tg-height=\"628\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1173679159","content_text":"Apple shares surges 1.4%,climbing to a new record high.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":746,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":154786085,"gmtCreate":1625545791947,"gmtModify":1631891386620,"author":{"id":"3582441430299393","authorId":"3582441430299393","name":"TerranceYee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bad1cb6d60af593e8e18243a352e839e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582441430299393","idStr":"3582441430299393"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍🏻","listText":"👍🏻","text":"👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/154786085","repostId":"1116255026","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":426,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":154884108,"gmtCreate":1625498115604,"gmtModify":1631891386625,"author":{"id":"3582441430299393","authorId":"3582441430299393","name":"TerranceYee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bad1cb6d60af593e8e18243a352e839e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582441430299393","idStr":"3582441430299393"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍🏻","listText":"👍🏻","text":"👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/154884108","repostId":"1109703914","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109703914","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625464355,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1109703914?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-05 13:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is the Stock Market Open or Closed on Independence Day?<blockquote>独立日股票市场是开放还是关闭？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109703914","media":"Thestreet","summary":"Independence Day in the U.S. is for many a picnic-and-beach day. But July 4 this year falls on a Sunday, which in the United States isn't a trading day.So will the major markets open or close for the holiday?The New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq will, in fact, be closed on Monday, July 5, to celebrate Independence Day.It's one of nine full-closing daysfor the stock market this year.For instance, the stock market will close for Thanksgiving on Thursday, Nov. 25. On Friday, Nov. 26, trading i","content":"<p>Independence Day in the U.S. is for many a picnic-and-beach day. But July 4 this year falls on a Sunday, which in the United States isn't a trading day.</p><p><blockquote>对许多人来说，美国的独立日是野餐和海滩日。但今年7月4日是周日，这在美国不是交易日。</blockquote></p><p> So will the major markets open or close for the holiday?</p><p><blockquote>那么假期主要市场会开盘还是收盘呢？</blockquote></p><p> The New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq will, in fact, be closed on Monday, July 5, to celebrate Independence Day.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，纽约证券交易所和纳斯达克将于7月5日星期一休市，以庆祝独立日。</blockquote></p><p> It's&nbsp;one of nine full-closing daysfor the stock market this year.</p><p><blockquote>这是今年股市九个完整休市日之一。</blockquote></p><p> For instance, the stock market will close for Thanksgiving on Thursday, Nov. 25. On Friday, Nov. 26, trading is scheduled for a bit more than a half-day, 9:30 a.m. to 1 p.m. ET.</p><p><blockquote>例如，股市将于11月25日星期四感恩节休市。11月26日星期五，交易时间为半天多一点，上午9:30至下午1点。美国东部时间。</blockquote></p><p> Normal stock-trading hours run 9:30 a.m. to 4 p.m. ET.</p><p><blockquote>正常股票交易时间为上午9:30至下午4点。东部时间。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the Stock Market Open or Closed on Independence Day?<blockquote>独立日股票市场是开放还是关闭？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the Stock Market Open or Closed on Independence Day?<blockquote>独立日股票市场是开放还是关闭？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Thestreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-05 13:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Independence Day in the U.S. is for many a picnic-and-beach day. But July 4 this year falls on a Sunday, which in the United States isn't a trading day.</p><p><blockquote>对许多人来说，美国的独立日是野餐和海滩日。但今年7月4日是周日，这在美国不是交易日。</blockquote></p><p> So will the major markets open or close for the holiday?</p><p><blockquote>那么假期主要市场会开盘还是收盘呢？</blockquote></p><p> The New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq will, in fact, be closed on Monday, July 5, to celebrate Independence Day.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，纽约证券交易所和纳斯达克将于7月5日星期一休市，以庆祝独立日。</blockquote></p><p> It's&nbsp;one of nine full-closing daysfor the stock market this year.</p><p><blockquote>这是今年股市九个完整休市日之一。</blockquote></p><p> For instance, the stock market will close for Thanksgiving on Thursday, Nov. 25. On Friday, Nov. 26, trading is scheduled for a bit more than a half-day, 9:30 a.m. to 1 p.m. ET.</p><p><blockquote>例如，股市将于11月25日星期四感恩节休市。11月26日星期五，交易时间为半天多一点，上午9:30至下午1点。美国东部时间。</blockquote></p><p> Normal stock-trading hours run 9:30 a.m. to 4 p.m. ET.</p><p><blockquote>正常股票交易时间为上午9:30至下午4点。东部时间。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/independence-day-stock-markets-trading-hours\">Thestreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/independence-day-stock-markets-trading-hours","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109703914","content_text":"Independence Day in the U.S. is for many a picnic-and-beach day. But July 4 this year falls on a Sunday, which in the United States isn't a trading day.\nSo will the major markets open or close for the holiday?\nThe New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq will, in fact, be closed on Monday, July 5, to celebrate Independence Day.\nIt's one of nine full-closing daysfor the stock market this year.\nFor instance, the stock market will close for Thanksgiving on Thursday, Nov. 25. On Friday, Nov. 26, trading is scheduled for a bit more than a half-day, 9:30 a.m. to 1 p.m. ET.\nNormal stock-trading hours run 9:30 a.m. to 4 p.m. ET.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":531,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152275218,"gmtCreate":1625304480534,"gmtModify":1631891386630,"author":{"id":"3582441430299393","authorId":"3582441430299393","name":"TerranceYee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bad1cb6d60af593e8e18243a352e839e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582441430299393","idStr":"3582441430299393"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍🏻&nbsp;","listText":"👍🏻&nbsp;","text":"👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/152275218","repostId":"1165340887","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":375,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":156877968,"gmtCreate":1625214881654,"gmtModify":1631891386633,"author":{"id":"3582441430299393","authorId":"3582441430299393","name":"TerranceYee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bad1cb6d60af593e8e18243a352e839e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582441430299393","idStr":"3582441430299393"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/156877968","repostId":"1115821085","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115821085","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625214660,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1115821085?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-02 16:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Great Company, Risky Investment<blockquote>Palantir：伟大的公司，有风险的投资</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115821085","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPalantir holds a unique place in the market and has a significant moat around this business","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Palantir holds a unique place in the market and has a significant moat around this business.</li>  <li>Having said this, even under optimistic assumptions, Palantir looks overvalued.</li>  <li>Furthermore, Palantir faces a unique and hard to control set of challenges.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24b21fd364a3c58b289354c3e5b92fd0\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Maria Marganingsih/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir在市场上占有独特的地位，并在该业务上拥有重要的护城河。</li><li>话虽如此，即使在乐观的假设下，Palantir看起来也被高估了。</li><li>此外，Palantir面临着一系列独特且难以控制的挑战。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Maria Marganingsih/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Thesis Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>论文摘要</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) is, by many accounts, an outstanding company. We believe that Palantir occupies a niche spot in the market, and has built a moat around its business thanks to its technology and workforce.</p><p><blockquote>许多人认为，Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)是一家杰出的公司。我们相信Palantir在市场上占据了利基市场，并凭借其技术和劳动力围绕其业务建立了护城河。</blockquote></p><p> We have derived a valuation for Palantir using trend analysis and comparables, with a 2030 horizon, where we tackle mainly profitability and equity dilution. Although our target price for that year is nearly $42 per share, this only represents a 4.6% annual growth rate from the current price.</p><p><blockquote>我们使用趋势分析和可比数据得出了Palantir的估值，展望2030年，我们主要解决盈利能力和股权稀释问题。尽管我们当年的目标价接近每股42美元，但这仅代表当前价格4.6%的年增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Ultimately, though Palantir is a great business, the current price does not offer investors attractive returns.</p><p><blockquote>最终，尽管Palantir是一家伟大的企业，但目前的价格并不能为投资者提供有吸引力的回报。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What makes Palantir special?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir有什么特别之处？</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir seems to be one of the most popular stocks to talk about in the last few months. The company, which has been around since 2003, but IPO'd only eight and a half months ago, is followed closely by both hawkish bears and delighted bulls. But why? What exactly makes Palantir so special?</p><p><blockquote>Palantir似乎是过去几个月最受欢迎的股票之一。该公司自2003年成立，但仅在八个半月前首次公开募股，受到鹰派空头和欣喜多头的密切关注。但是为什么呢？究竟是什么让Palantir如此特别？</blockquote></p><p> The bears would point out nothing, and while I do agree that, oftentimes, unwarranted hype is created around buzzwords like \"data\", I will argue here that Palantir is special. This is important because it puts Palantir in a great situation in terms of the competitive landscape and growth opportunities. However, it also creates a very particular set of \"risks\" and challenges for the company.</p><p><blockquote>看空者不会指出任何事情，虽然我确实同意，围绕“数据”等流行语经常进行毫无根据的炒作，但我在这里认为Palantir很特别。这很重要，因为它使Palantir在竞争格局和增长机会方面处于有利地位。然而，它也给公司带来了一系列非常特殊的“风险”和挑战。</blockquote></p><p> On the most superficial level, Palantir is a \"data analytics company\", which has found itself a nice spot on the list of government contractors, both domestic and abroad. This already makes the company more interesting than many others. There is nothing today growing faster than data, and at close second we could put government spending. However, this misses the point of what actually makes the company special, or, more specifically, what has allowed the company to gain so much favour with public institutions, and now private clients.</p><p><blockquote>从最表面的层面来看，Palantir是一家“数据分析公司”，它已经在国内外政府承包商名单上找到了一席之地。这已经使该公司比许多其他公司更有趣。如今，没有什么比数据增长得更快了，紧随其后的是政府支出。然而，这忽略了是什么让该公司真正与众不同，或者更具体地说，是什么让该公司获得了公共机构以及现在的私人客户的如此多的青睐。</blockquote></p><p> If we could put it into one sentence, we would say the following: Palantir walks a fine line between data analytics and consulting. Indeed, the company has some very powerful proprietary software, which we might as well call an AI, but it also has one of the most talented workforces in the world, with specific task forces being created to address the needs of each client/contract.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们可以用一句话来概括，我们会说：Palantir在数据分析和咨询之间徘徊。事实上，该公司拥有一些非常强大的专有软件，我们不妨将其看涨期权为人工智能，但它也拥有世界上最有才华的员工队伍之一，并创建了特定的工作组来满足每个客户/合同的需求。</blockquote></p><p> Think about it like a mix between McKinsey and International Business Machines (IBM). In practice, it's not enough to have a powerful computer that can find great insights. First, it has to be led in the right direction, and then those insights have to be implemented properly. And of course, once you implement new measures, these create a whole new set of variables and data, so you can rinse and repeat indefinitely.</p><p><blockquote>把它想象成麦肯锡和国际商业机器公司(IBM)的混合体。在实践中，仅仅拥有一台能够发现伟大见解的强大计算机是不够的。首先，它必须被引导到正确的方向，然后这些见解必须被正确地实施。当然，一旦你实施了新的措施，这些措施会创建一组全新的变量和数据，所以你可以无限期地冲洗和重复。</blockquote></p><p> This is what a lot of people miss about this company. Some think it just has great software, which it does, but its biggest asset, we would argue, is its \"business model\" which is powered by its workforce. Furthermore, many of those who do acknowledge the fact that Palantir relies heavily on using specialized employees to address their clients' needs point this out as a weakness rather than the great strength that it is. They would argue that Palantir has to spend a lot of money on employing people to help their clients use their product, which makes it less \"profitable\", but this is a very rudimentary understanding of the situation. It's true that it might not achieve such high margins as a traditional SaaS, but it definitely doesn't mean the company is unprofitable. Consulting firms, like McKinsey or Accenture plc (ACN), do just this, employ people to help out their clients, and they certainly don't seem to struggle to make a profit. Ultimately, a cost is justified as long as it brings sufficient value.</p><p><blockquote>这是很多人怀念这家公司的地方。有些人认为它只是拥有出色的软件，事实也的确如此，但我们认为，它最大的资产是由员工驱动的“商业模式”。此外，许多承认Palantir严重依赖使用专业员工来满足客户需求的人指出，这是一个弱点，而不是它的巨大优势。他们会争辩说，Palantir不得不花很多钱雇人来帮助他们的客户使用他们的产品，这使得它不那么“有利可图”，但这是对情况的非常初级的理解。诚然，它可能无法像传统SaaS那样实现如此高的利润率，但这绝对不意味着该公司无利可图。像麦肯锡或埃森哲公司（ACN）这样的咨询公司就是这样做的，雇佣人们来帮助他们的客户，而且他们似乎并不努力盈利。最终，只要成本带来足够的价值，它就是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Does Palantir have a \"moat\"?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir有“护城河”吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> But even if Palantir is special; does this matter? How does this set it apart from its competitors? In this regard, Palantir faces three different sets of competitors:</p><p><blockquote>但即使Palantir很特别；这有关系吗？这如何将其与竞争对手区分开来？在这方面，Palantir面临三组不同的竞争对手：</blockquote></p><p> Firstly, Palantir is competing with traditional consulting firms. Ultimately, this is what the company does, since it is working hand-in-hand with its clients to improve their operations. Consulting firms like Accenture and McKinsey do this to a certain degree, but at the moment, they lack the technical requirements and niche focus that Palantir has.</p><p><blockquote>首先，Palantir正在与传统咨询公司竞争。最终，这就是该公司所做的，因为它正在与客户携手改善他们的运营。埃森哲和麦肯锡等咨询公司在一定程度上做到了这一点，但目前，他们缺乏Palantir所具备的技术要求和利基重点。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> From a data analytics sector perspective, Palantir could be put into the same category as companies like IBM or SAP SE (SAP). These companies do indeed have the necessary resources to compete with Palantir in terms of services, but not on price. These companies have been around for too long and are way too big to be able to compete in price with Palantir. They simply cannot scale down efficiently enough.</p><p><blockquote>从数据分析行业的角度来看，Palantir可以与IBM或SAP SE(SAP)等公司归入同一类别。这些公司确实拥有在服务方面与Palantir竞争的必要资源，但不是在价格上。这些公司已经存在太久了，规模太大，无法在价格上与Palantir竞争。他们根本无法足够有效地缩小规模。</blockquote></p><p> Lastly, the company competes head-to-head with other defence contractors such as Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corporation (BAH) and SAIC. The problem these firms have competing with Palantir is that they are not specialized enough within their offerings.</p><p><blockquote>最后，该公司与博思艾伦控股公司(BAH)和SAIC等其他国防承包商展开正面竞争。这些公司与Palantir竞争的问题是他们的产品不够专业化。</blockquote></p><p> To sum up, we would argue that Palantir's moat comes, firstly, from its business proposition. Palantir was created with a very clear idea behind it, which allowed it to be a niche company. This specialization also allows it to be more efficient, and offer clients more competitive prices.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，我们认为Palantir的护城河首先来自于其商业主张。Palantir的创建背后有一个非常明确的想法，这使得它成为一家利基公司。这种专业化也使其更加高效，并为客户提供更具竞争力的价格。</blockquote></p><p> It is true that this business model can be copied. There is nothing stopping new companies from doing what Palantir is doing and there are some startups attempting to do this, such as&nbsp;Digital Reasoning, but bear in mind this company has only ever received $134 million in funding. What does set Palantir apart from its competitors and is something that they can't easily replicate is its workforce. Palantir spends a lot of money to find and keep the best talent in the industry. A big part of this is done through stock-based compensation, which is a hot topic&nbsp;I discussed here. In any case, Palantir has the advantage of being \"the place to be\" right now, within the industry. This popularity and recognition has increased even more since its IPO and is a key factor in attracting and retaining young talent. This talent is, ultimately, the company's biggest strength.</p><p><blockquote>诚然，这种商业模式是可以复制的。没有什么可以阻止新公司做Palantir正在做的事情，也有一些初创公司试图这样做，例如数字推理，但请记住，这家公司只获得了1.34亿美元的资金。Palantir与竞争对手的区别在于其员工队伍，这也是他们无法轻易复制的。Palantir花费大量资金寻找并留住业内最优秀的人才。其中很大一部分是通过基于股票的薪酬来完成的，这是我在这里讨论的一个热门话题。无论如何，Palantir具有目前行业内“最佳去处”的优势。自首次公开募股以来，这种受欢迎程度和认可度进一步提高，是吸引和留住年轻人才的关键因素。这种人才最终是公司最大的优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Addressable Market &amp; Growth Opportunities</b></p><p><blockquote><b>潜在市场和增长机会</b></blockquote></p><p> With that said, let's proceed towards analysing Palantir's TAM and Growth outlook.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，让我们继续分析Palantir的TAM和增长前景。</blockquote></p><p> In the sections above, we mentioned how Palantir is in a unique situation, because it is both a consulting firm and a data analytics firm, and it also has significant government contracts. Therefore, we could look at TAM from these three perspectives:</p><p><blockquote>在上面的章节中，我们提到了Palantir的独特处境，因为它既是一家咨询公司，也是一家数据分析公司，而且还拥有重要的政府合同。因此，我们可以从以下三个角度来看待TAM：</blockquote></p><p> Starting with consulting, this is perhaps the least exciting of the three areas where Palantir can grow. According to research, the \"Management Consulting Services\" industry will grow at a CAGR of 8% through 2025, which would put the industry at a size of $1201.06 billion. Granted, this is not impressive growth but it is a remarkable size. In this sense, Palantir could actually attack much of this market, which is now dominated by \"the big four\".</p><p><blockquote>从咨询开始，这可能是Palantir可以发展的三个领域中最不令人兴奋的。根据研究，到2025年，“管理咨询服务”行业将以8%的CAGR增长，这将使该行业的规模达到12010.6亿美元。诚然，这并不是令人印象深刻的增长，但它是一个非凡的规模。从这个意义上说，Palantir实际上可以攻击这个目前由“四大”主导的市场的大部分。</blockquote></p><p> From the point of view of data analytics, we have a market that, in this case, is growing very fast. According to Quince Market Insights, this segment will grow at a&nbsp;CAGR of 25% in the next 10 years. Furthermore, studies have also found that, currently, companies only analyze around&nbsp;12% of their data.This creates a massive opportunity for a company like Palantir to come in, and show these companies exactly how and why they need to analyze their data.</p><p><blockquote>从数据分析的角度来看，我们有一个增长非常快的市场。根据Quince Market Insights的数据，该细分市场在未来10年将以25%的CAGR增长。此外，研究还发现，目前，公司只分析了大约12%的数据。这为像Palantir这样的公司创造了巨大的机会，并向这些公司展示了他们需要如何以及为什么分析他们的数据。</blockquote></p><p> Lastly, since Palantir works closely with the government, it is only reasonable to believe that the more it spends, the more Palantir will make.The CBO projects&nbsp;average yearly deficits of $1.2 trillion from 2022 to 2030. This is in line with the current tendency of continued increase in public spending, but what is most encouraging is where this spending will take place:</p><p><blockquote>最后，由于Palantir与政府密切合作，因此有理由相信它花的越多，Palantir赚的就越多。CBO预计，从2022年到2030年，年均赤字为1.2万亿美元。这与目前公共开支持续增加的趋势是一致的，但最令人鼓舞的是，这项开支将会发生在何处：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8330575726862d333c1cfabc18987a50\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"626\"><span>Source:CBO.gov</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：CBO.gov</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By 2030, the biggest item on the Federal government's expense sheet will be Major Health Care Programs, which will be equivalent to 9% of GDP. Data from the NHE also suggest that by 2028 healthcare will be a&nbsp;$6.2 trillion business.Again, this is great news for Palantir, since data analytics within the healthcare industry is a high growth area. Palantir already has clients in this area, including the&nbsp;UK's National Health System[NHS].</p><p><blockquote>到2030年，联邦政府开支单上最大的项目将是主要的医疗保健项目，这将相当于GDP的9%。NHE的数据还表明，到2028年，医疗保健业务将达到6.2万亿美元。同样，这对Palantir来说是个好消息，因为医疗保健行业的数据分析是一个高增长领域。Palantir已经在该领域拥有客户，包括英国国家卫生系统[NHS]。</blockquote></p><p> All in all, Palantir has the benefit of working within a fast-growing sector, data, but with the ability of being able to deploy their technology and workforce to solve niche applications. Given that the data analytics industry is projected to grow at 25% and that Palantir has strong government connections, we believe the company could easily achieve analysts' goal of 30% CAGR over the next 5 years.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，Palantir的优势在于在快速增长的数据领域工作，但也有能力部署他们的技术和劳动力来解决利基应用。鉴于数据分析行业预计将增长25%，并且Palantir拥有强大的政府关系，我们相信该公司可以轻松实现分析师未来5年复合年增长率30%的目标。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Profitability Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盈利能力分析</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Profitability is expected to grow as revenues reach higher levels. The question that any investor would like answered is not only if this is going to be the case, but by how much. Our aim here is to make a forecast of Palantir revenues and earnings until 2030 so that we can later make a sound valuation of the stock through earnings multiples. The method used here is a combination of trendline analysis of existing financials, performances by most comparable competitors, and estimates by analysts and the company itself.</p><p><blockquote>随着收入达到更高水平，盈利能力预计将增长。任何投资者想要回答的问题不仅是这种情况是否会发生，而且会发生多少。我们的目标是预测Palantir到2030年的收入和收益，以便我们以后可以通过市盈率对该股票进行合理的估值。这里使用的方法是对现有财务状况的趋势线分析、大多数可比竞争对手的表现以及分析师和公司本身的估计的结合。</blockquote></p><p> We have already talked about the addressable market and growth prospects, now it is time to quantify the expected revenue path for Palantir. Since companies rarely sustain such high growth rates in the long run, we find that a second order polynomial trendline is often the best method to calculate this. This type of equation delivers a flatter curve than an exponential trendline, which assumes a constant growth rate. For Palantir's quarterly revenue, it is also a very good fit as you can see below. You can see the trendline along the actual revenue recorded in the last nine quarters, and a projection until 2030 Q4.</p><p><blockquote>我们已经讨论了潜在市场和增长前景，现在是时候量化Palantir的预期收入路径了。由于公司很少长期保持如此高的增长率，我们发现二阶多项式趋势线通常是计算这一点的最佳方法。这种类型的方程提供了比指数趋势线更平坦的曲线，指数趋势线假设增长率恒定。对于Palantir的季度收入来说，它也非常适合，如下所示。您可以看到过去九个季度记录的实际收入的趋势线，以及到2030年第四季度的预测。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acada8ddc443d930e8cb4e3929b42015\" tg-width=\"515\" tg-height=\"341\"><span>Source: Author's work based on financial records. Revenue in $million. Quarters are numbered from 1 (Q1 2019) to 48 (Q4 2030)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者基于财务记录的工作。收入单位为百万美元。季度编号为1（2019年第一季度）至48（2030年第四季度）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If you apply the function above you get a forecasted yearly revenue of 11.9 billion for 2030, including $3.1 billion in Q4 of that year. This is not far from the consensus estimate for 2030 you can find on Seeking Alpha, which is $12.42 billion. According to the latest earnings call, management expects to deliver 30%+ growth at least in the next four years. To put this into perspective, a CAGR of 30% until 2030 would give a revenue of $11.5 billion. Taking the three into account, we will keep our trendline estimate of 11.9, which lies between the other two figures.</p><p><blockquote>如果你应用上面的函数，你会得到2030年的预测年收入为119亿美元，其中包括当年第四季度的31亿美元。这与Seeking Alpha上对2030年的共识估计（124.2亿美元）相差不远。根据最新的收益看涨期权，管理层预计至少在未来四年内实现30%以上的增长。从这个角度来看，到2030年，30%的复合年增长率将带来115亿美元的收入。考虑到这三者，我们将保持趋势线估计值11.9，该值位于其他两个数字之间。</blockquote></p><p> Gross margins have been improving gradually according to GAAP figures over the last nine quarters, from nearly 68% in the first quarter of 2019 to over 78% in the latest quarter. Except for an unusually bad figure in Q3 2020, which has been taken out of the equation for a smoother analysis, the gross margin as a function of revenue shows a predictable path of improvement through a linear trend, as you can see in this chart.</p><p><blockquote>根据GAAP数据，过去九个季度的毛利率一直在逐步提高，从2019年第一季度的近68%提高到最近一个季度的78%以上。除了2020年第三季度异常糟糕的数据（为了更顺利的分析，该数据已从等式中删除）外，毛利率作为收入的函数通过线性趋势显示了可预测的改善路径，如您在此图表中看到的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9094dcdd5ddbc9df1499318bf694ad7a\" tg-width=\"481\" tg-height=\"289\"><span>Source: Author's work based on financial records. Items in $million</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者基于财务记录的工作。项目（百万美元）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Data excludes a figure of (289,140) from Q3 2020.</p><p><blockquote>数据不包括2020年第三季度的数字（289,140）。</blockquote></p><p> The linear equation above, with a 0.9 slope, generates a forecast where the gross margin should tend towards 90% of revenue. Applying this formula to the forecasted revenue of $11.9 billion predicts a gross margin figure of $10.6 billion for 2030.</p><p><blockquote>上面的线性方程斜率为0.9，预测毛利率应趋向于收入的90%。将此公式应用于119亿美元的预测收入，预计2030年的毛利率为106亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> In order to transform gross margins into net income, so that we can make a valuation based on an earnings multiple, we will look at one of Palantir's comparables, discussed&nbsp;in a previous article, Cognizant (NASDAQ:CTSH). The reason for using Cognizant is that not only is the activity they carry out similar but it is also an example of a profitable pier with a fairly consistent earnings margin, and with debt and gross margin volumes comparable to the ones we are predicting for Palantir.</p><p><blockquote>为了将毛利率转化为净利润，以便我们可以根据市盈率进行估值，我们将研究Palantir的可比公司之一，如上一篇文章中所讨论的，Cognizant（纳斯达克股票代码：CTSH）。使用Cognizant的原因是，他们开展的活动不仅相似，而且它也是一个盈利码头的例子，利润率相当稳定，债务和毛利率与我们对Palantir的预测相当。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7effd28b7de277b78a107d14608164ff\" tg-width=\"481\" tg-height=\"289\"><span>Source: Author's work.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者作品。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With gross margins stable at around 6 billion in recent years, CTSH has maintained a healthy level of net income, ranging from 22% to 35% of gross profits. To make a fair estimate, we will assume the average percentage through the 10-year period, which is 30.61% of gross profit. We will also assume that Palantir achieves that level in 2030, with a gradual increase of the percentage until then.</p><p><blockquote>近年来毛利率稳定在60亿左右，CTSH净利润保持在健康水平，占毛利润的22%至35%不等。为了做出公平的估计，我们将假设10年期间的平均百分比，即毛利的30.61%。我们还假设Palantir将在2030年达到这一水平，并在此之前逐步增加百分比。</blockquote></p><p> This completes our revenue and earnings estimates for Palantir in 2030, reaching 11.9 billion revenue, $10.6 billion gross margin, and $3.3 billion net income.</p><p><blockquote>这完成了我们对Palantir 2030年收入和盈利的预测，收入达到119亿美元，毛利率达到106亿美元，净利润达到33亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td>Year</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>年</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2021</p><p><blockquote><td>2021</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2022</p><p><blockquote><td>2022</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2023</p><p><blockquote><td>2023</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2024</p><p><blockquote><td>2024</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2025</p><p><blockquote><td>2025</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2026</p><p><blockquote><td>2026</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2027</p><p><blockquote><td>2027</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2028</p><p><blockquote><td>2028</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2029</p><p><blockquote><td>2029</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2030</p><p><blockquote><td>2030</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Reven.</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>雷文。</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1,581</p><p><blockquote><td>1,581</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,196</p><p><blockquote><td>2,196</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,942</p><p><blockquote><td>2,942</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>3,820</p><p><blockquote><td>3,820</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,830</p><p><blockquote><td>4,830</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5,972</p><p><blockquote><td>5,972</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7,245</p><p><blockquote><td>7,245</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>8,650</p><p><blockquote><td>8,650</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10,188</p><p><blockquote><td>10,188</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>11,856</p><p><blockquote><td>11,856</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Gross Profit</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>毛利</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1,382</p><p><blockquote><td>1,382</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1,936</p><p><blockquote><td>1,936</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,608</p><p><blockquote><td>2,608</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>3,399</p><p><blockquote><td>3,399</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,309</p><p><blockquote><td>4,309</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5,338</p><p><blockquote><td>5,338</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6,485</p><p><blockquote><td>6,485</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7,751</p><p><blockquote><td>7,751</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9,136</p><p><blockquote><td>9,136</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10,639</p><p><blockquote><td>10,639</td></blockquote></p><p></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Net Income</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>净收入</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>42</p><p><blockquote><td>42</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>119</p><p><blockquote><td>119</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>240</p><p><blockquote><td>240</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>416</p><p><blockquote><td>416</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>660</p><p><blockquote><td>660</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>980</p><p><blockquote><td>980</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1,390</p><p><blockquote><td>1,390</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1,898</p><p><blockquote><td>1,898</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,517</p><p><blockquote><td>2,517</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>3,257</p><p><blockquote><td>3,257</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> Source: Author's work. Items in $millions.</p><p><blockquote>来源：作者作品。百万美元的项目。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Having forecasted revenues and earnings, we are prepared to estimate a path for Palantir's stock price. In order to do this, we need to also look into financing through equity and how the dilution will affect share prices. We are going to continue using the 2030 horizon as the timeframe.</p><p><blockquote>预测收入和盈利后，我们准备估计Palantir股价的走势。为了做到这一点，我们还需要研究通过股权融资以及稀释将如何影响股价。我们将继续使用2030年作为时间框架。</blockquote></p><p> First, we will create an estimate for market capitalization based on the current sector median earnings multiple, and then we will make a forecast for the dilution. The current GAAP TTM Price/earnings ratio for the sector is 33.94. The assumption here is that as Palantir becomes profitable, its valuation should approach this multiple and be fairly valued for its earnings. Based on the earnings we forecasted and the 33.94 PE ratio, we get the following estimated market capitalizations:</p><p><blockquote>首先，我们将根据当前行业市盈率中位数对市值进行估计，然后对稀释进行预测。该行业目前的GAAP TTM市盈率为33.94。这里的假设是，随着Palantir实现盈利，其估值应接近该倍数，并且其盈利估值合理。根据我们预测的盈利和33.94的市盈率，我们得到以下估计市值：</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td>Year</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>年</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2021</p><p><blockquote><td>2021</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2022</p><p><blockquote><td>2022</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2023</p><p><blockquote><td>2023</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2024</p><p><blockquote><td>2024</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2025</p><p><blockquote><td>2025</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2026</p><p><blockquote><td>2026</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2027</p><p><blockquote><td>2027</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2028</p><p><blockquote><td>2028</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2029</p><p><blockquote><td>2029</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2030</p><p><blockquote><td>2030</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Net Inc.</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>网络公司。</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>42</p><p><blockquote><td>42</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>119</p><p><blockquote><td>119</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>240</p><p><blockquote><td>240</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>416</p><p><blockquote><td>416</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>660</p><p><blockquote><td>660</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>980</p><p><blockquote><td>980</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1,390</p><p><blockquote><td>1,390</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1,898</p><p><blockquote><td>1,898</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,517</p><p><blockquote><td>2,517</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>3,257</p><p><blockquote><td>3,257</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Mkt. Cap [PE]</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>市场。帽[PE]</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1,436</p><p><blockquote><td>1,436</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,023</p><p><blockquote><td>4,023</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>8,129</p><p><blockquote><td>8,129</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14,126</p><p><blockquote><td>14,126</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22,384</p><p><blockquote><td>22,384</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>33,272</p><p><blockquote><td>33,272</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>47,160</p><p><blockquote><td>47,160</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>64,420</p><p><blockquote><td>64,420</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>85,421</p><p><blockquote><td>85,421</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>110,532</p><p><blockquote><td>110,532</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> Source: Author's work. Items in $millions.</p><p><blockquote>来源：作者作品。百万美元的项目。</blockquote></p><p> As you can see, the current market capitalization of slightly over $50 billion wouldn't be justified by earnings until after 2027, reaching a level of $111 billion by 2030. This represents a CAGR of just 8.57%, before we take dilution into account.</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，目前略高于500亿美元的市值要到2027年之后才能被盈利证明是合理的，到2030年将达到1110亿美元的水平。在我们考虑稀释之前，这意味着复合年增长率仅为8.57%。</blockquote></p><p> In order to predict how the number of common shares is likely to evolve over these years, we have made a forecast of the book value based on revenue, assuming the balance sheet maintains a similar structure relative to the volume of operations. If we look at the last four quarters, we have a fairly consistent linear pattern of how book value has increased with quarterly revenue, as you can see below.</p><p><blockquote>为了预测这些年普通股数量可能如何演变，我们根据收入对账面价值进行了预测，假设资产负债表相对于业务量保持类似的结构。如果我们看看过去四个季度，我们会发现账面价值随季度收入增长的线性模式相当一致，如下所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9066505bd8b5fce4ebf0d4f538a4bafe\" tg-width=\"481\" tg-height=\"289\"><span>Source: Author's work based on financial records. Items in $million</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者基于财务记录的工作。项目（百万美元）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Applying this equation, with a revenue of $3.1 billion in Q4 2030, as per our previous forecast, the book value should rise to $34.2 billion. If we take into account the current book value of 1.8 billion and the accumulated net income we have already forecasted for the whole period, which is $11.5 billion, we estimate that an additional $20.9 billion of funding through new equity will be required. At the current share price of $27.37, this would mean 739 million additional common shares by the end of 2030. Added to the current 1.8 billion outstanding, the total is 2.6 billion common shares. Applying the $111 billion market capitalization we have forecasted, the resulting target price for the end of 2030 is $41.87. You can see a summary of these figures below.</p><p><blockquote>应用这个等式，根据我们之前的预测，2030年第四季度的收入为31亿美元，账面价值应升至342亿美元。如果我们考虑到当前18亿美元的账面价值以及我们已经预测的整个期间的累计净利润115亿美元，我们估计将需要通过新股权额外筹集209亿美元的资金。按照目前27.37美元的股价计算，这意味着到2030年底将增加7.39亿股普通股。加上目前已发行的18亿股，普通股总数为26亿股。应用我们预测的1110亿美元市值，2030年底的目标价为41.87美元。您可以在下面看到这些数字的摘要。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td>Concept</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>概念</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>Amount</p><p><blockquote><td>数量</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Revenue Q4 2030</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>2030年第四季度收入</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>3,128</p><p><blockquote><td>3,128</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Book Value Q4 2030</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>2030年第四季度账面价值</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>34,212</p><p><blockquote><td>34,212</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Book Value Q1 2021</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>2021年第一季度账面价值</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1,806</p><p><blockquote><td>1,806</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Acc. Net Income Q2 2021-Q4 2030</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>Acc.2021年第二季度-2030年第四季度净利润</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>11,517</p><p><blockquote><td>11,517</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Financing from new equity</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>新增股权融资</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20,889</p><p><blockquote><td>20,889</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Current Share Price</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>当前股价</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$ 27.37</p><p><blockquote><td>$27.37</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>New shares required</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>所需新股</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>763</p><p><blockquote><td>763</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Market cap 2030 Q4</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>2030年第四季度市值</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>110,532</p><p><blockquote><td>110,532</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Nº Shares 2030 Q4 (millions)</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>2030年第四季度股数（百万）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,640</p><p><blockquote><td>2,640</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Target Price 2030 Q4</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>2030年第四季度目标价</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$ 41.87</p><p><blockquote><td>$41.87</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>CAGR</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>CAGR</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.58%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.58%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> Source: Author's work. Monetary items in $millions, except per share items, nº of shares in millions.</p><p><blockquote>来源：作者作品。货币项目以百万美元为单位，每股项目除外，股份数量以百万为单位。</blockquote></p><p> As you can see, the expected CAGR for Palantir's stock price as per our forecasted fair value at the end of 2030 is just 4.58%. If we were to require, say, a 10% return, which is more reasonable for a growth stock, the fair price today would be $16.93, 38% lower than the current price.</p><p><blockquote>如您所见，根据我们预测的2030年底公允价值，Palantir股价的预期复合年增长率仅为4.58%。如果我们要求10%的回报率（这对于成长型股票来说更合理），那么今天的公平价格将是16.93美元，比当前价格低38%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Having said all this, we also have to mention some particular challenges that a company like Palantir faces. The most significant of these would relate to how the company has to manage its image in a world where privacy is becoming \"taboo\".</p><p><blockquote>说了这么多，我们还必须提到像Palantir这样的公司面临的一些特殊挑战。其中最重要的是，在一个隐私正成为“禁忌”的世界里，该公司必须如何管理自己的形象。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir is a company that, on many levels, has a lot of power, which can be both a blessing and a curse. The company has to be very careful with its data to avoid any events that could damage its reputation, which it needs in order to survive. Think, for example, Edward Snowden, who before becoming one of the most wanted men in the world was working for Booz Allen. What would happen if the next whistleblower came from within Palantir's ranks?</p><p><blockquote>Palantir是一家在很多层面上都拥有巨大权力的公司，这既可能是福也可能是祸。该公司必须非常小心地处理其数据，以避免任何可能损害其声誉的事件，而这是其生存所必需的。以爱德华·斯诺登为例，他在成为世界头号通缉犯之一之前曾在博思艾伦工作。如果下一个举报人来自Palantir内部会发生什么？</blockquote></p><p> On top of that, Palantir is also facing resistance from organizations abroad. For example, there is currently a campaign in the UK trying to stop Palantir fromworking with the NHS. It's understandable that some people may not want their medical data to be handled by a foreign company, even if it is from an allied country.</p><p><blockquote>除此之外，Palantir还面临着来自海外组织的阻力。例如，目前英国有一场运动试图阻止Palantir与NHS合作。可以理解的是，有些人可能不希望他们的医疗数据由外国公司处理，即使它来自盟国。</blockquote></p><p> Ultimately, these are very particular challenges that Palantir faces. Its growth could be hampered if people or even the government start to think the company is \"too powerful\". Furthermore, if anything happened to damage the company's reputation, Palantir could be finished overnight. Of course, this is why the company invests so heavily in its workforce. But will it be enough?</p><p><blockquote>最终，这些都是Palantir面临的非常特殊的挑战。如果人们甚至政府开始认为该公司“过于强大”，其增长可能会受到阻碍。此外，如果发生任何损害公司声誉的事情，Palantir可能会在一夜之间被终结。当然，这也是公司在员工方面投入如此之多的原因。但这就够了吗？</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> In conclusion, we believe Palantir is qualitatively a great company. They operate in a niche market with a lot of growth potential. On top of that, Palantir has one of the best technologies and workforces in the market right now, but this is not enough. Even with double-digit growth and assuming a steady path towards profitability, Palantir seems way too expensive today to provide investors with good returns. A great company doesn't always make a great investment, and we feel this is the case with Palantir.</p><p><blockquote>总之，我们相信Palantir在质量上是一家伟大的公司。他们在一个具有巨大增长潜力的利基市场运营。最重要的是，Palantir拥有目前市场上最好的技术和劳动力之一，但这还不够。即使Palantir实现了两位数的增长并稳步实现盈利，但如今的Palantir似乎过于昂贵，无法为投资者提供良好的回报。一家伟大的公司并不总是做出伟大的投资，我们认为Palantir就是这种情况。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Great Company, Risky Investment<blockquote>Palantir：伟大的公司，有风险的投资</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Great Company, Risky Investment<blockquote>Palantir：伟大的公司，有风险的投资</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-02 16:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Palantir holds a unique place in the market and has a significant moat around this business.</li>  <li>Having said this, even under optimistic assumptions, Palantir looks overvalued.</li>  <li>Furthermore, Palantir faces a unique and hard to control set of challenges.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24b21fd364a3c58b289354c3e5b92fd0\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Maria Marganingsih/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir在市场上占有独特的地位，并在该业务上拥有重要的护城河。</li><li>话虽如此，即使在乐观的假设下，Palantir看起来也被高估了。</li><li>此外，Palantir面临着一系列独特且难以控制的挑战。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Maria Marganingsih/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Thesis Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>论文摘要</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) is, by many accounts, an outstanding company. We believe that Palantir occupies a niche spot in the market, and has built a moat around its business thanks to its technology and workforce.</p><p><blockquote>许多人认为，Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)是一家杰出的公司。我们相信Palantir在市场上占据了利基市场，并凭借其技术和劳动力围绕其业务建立了护城河。</blockquote></p><p> We have derived a valuation for Palantir using trend analysis and comparables, with a 2030 horizon, where we tackle mainly profitability and equity dilution. Although our target price for that year is nearly $42 per share, this only represents a 4.6% annual growth rate from the current price.</p><p><blockquote>我们使用趋势分析和可比数据得出了Palantir的估值，展望2030年，我们主要解决盈利能力和股权稀释问题。尽管我们当年的目标价接近每股42美元，但这仅代表当前价格4.6%的年增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Ultimately, though Palantir is a great business, the current price does not offer investors attractive returns.</p><p><blockquote>最终，尽管Palantir是一家伟大的企业，但目前的价格并不能为投资者提供有吸引力的回报。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What makes Palantir special?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir有什么特别之处？</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir seems to be one of the most popular stocks to talk about in the last few months. The company, which has been around since 2003, but IPO'd only eight and a half months ago, is followed closely by both hawkish bears and delighted bulls. But why? What exactly makes Palantir so special?</p><p><blockquote>Palantir似乎是过去几个月最受欢迎的股票之一。该公司自2003年成立，但仅在八个半月前首次公开募股，受到鹰派空头和欣喜多头的密切关注。但是为什么呢？究竟是什么让Palantir如此特别？</blockquote></p><p> The bears would point out nothing, and while I do agree that, oftentimes, unwarranted hype is created around buzzwords like \"data\", I will argue here that Palantir is special. This is important because it puts Palantir in a great situation in terms of the competitive landscape and growth opportunities. However, it also creates a very particular set of \"risks\" and challenges for the company.</p><p><blockquote>看空者不会指出任何事情，虽然我确实同意，围绕“数据”等流行语经常进行毫无根据的炒作，但我在这里认为Palantir很特别。这很重要，因为它使Palantir在竞争格局和增长机会方面处于有利地位。然而，它也给公司带来了一系列非常特殊的“风险”和挑战。</blockquote></p><p> On the most superficial level, Palantir is a \"data analytics company\", which has found itself a nice spot on the list of government contractors, both domestic and abroad. This already makes the company more interesting than many others. There is nothing today growing faster than data, and at close second we could put government spending. However, this misses the point of what actually makes the company special, or, more specifically, what has allowed the company to gain so much favour with public institutions, and now private clients.</p><p><blockquote>从最表面的层面来看，Palantir是一家“数据分析公司”，它已经在国内外政府承包商名单上找到了一席之地。这已经使该公司比许多其他公司更有趣。如今，没有什么比数据增长得更快了，紧随其后的是政府支出。然而，这忽略了是什么让该公司真正与众不同，或者更具体地说，是什么让该公司获得了公共机构以及现在的私人客户的如此多的青睐。</blockquote></p><p> If we could put it into one sentence, we would say the following: Palantir walks a fine line between data analytics and consulting. Indeed, the company has some very powerful proprietary software, which we might as well call an AI, but it also has one of the most talented workforces in the world, with specific task forces being created to address the needs of each client/contract.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们可以用一句话来概括，我们会说：Palantir在数据分析和咨询之间徘徊。事实上，该公司拥有一些非常强大的专有软件，我们不妨将其看涨期权为人工智能，但它也拥有世界上最有才华的员工队伍之一，并创建了特定的工作组来满足每个客户/合同的需求。</blockquote></p><p> Think about it like a mix between McKinsey and International Business Machines (IBM). In practice, it's not enough to have a powerful computer that can find great insights. First, it has to be led in the right direction, and then those insights have to be implemented properly. And of course, once you implement new measures, these create a whole new set of variables and data, so you can rinse and repeat indefinitely.</p><p><blockquote>把它想象成麦肯锡和国际商业机器公司(IBM)的混合体。在实践中，仅仅拥有一台能够发现伟大见解的强大计算机是不够的。首先，它必须被引导到正确的方向，然后这些见解必须被正确地实施。当然，一旦你实施了新的措施，这些措施会创建一组全新的变量和数据，所以你可以无限期地冲洗和重复。</blockquote></p><p> This is what a lot of people miss about this company. Some think it just has great software, which it does, but its biggest asset, we would argue, is its \"business model\" which is powered by its workforce. Furthermore, many of those who do acknowledge the fact that Palantir relies heavily on using specialized employees to address their clients' needs point this out as a weakness rather than the great strength that it is. They would argue that Palantir has to spend a lot of money on employing people to help their clients use their product, which makes it less \"profitable\", but this is a very rudimentary understanding of the situation. It's true that it might not achieve such high margins as a traditional SaaS, but it definitely doesn't mean the company is unprofitable. Consulting firms, like McKinsey or Accenture plc (ACN), do just this, employ people to help out their clients, and they certainly don't seem to struggle to make a profit. Ultimately, a cost is justified as long as it brings sufficient value.</p><p><blockquote>这是很多人怀念这家公司的地方。有些人认为它只是拥有出色的软件，事实也的确如此，但我们认为，它最大的资产是由员工驱动的“商业模式”。此外，许多承认Palantir严重依赖使用专业员工来满足客户需求的人指出，这是一个弱点，而不是它的巨大优势。他们会争辩说，Palantir不得不花很多钱雇人来帮助他们的客户使用他们的产品，这使得它不那么“有利可图”，但这是对情况的非常初级的理解。诚然，它可能无法像传统SaaS那样实现如此高的利润率，但这绝对不意味着该公司无利可图。像麦肯锡或埃森哲公司（ACN）这样的咨询公司就是这样做的，雇佣人们来帮助他们的客户，而且他们似乎并不努力盈利。最终，只要成本带来足够的价值，它就是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Does Palantir have a \"moat\"?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir有“护城河”吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> But even if Palantir is special; does this matter? How does this set it apart from its competitors? In this regard, Palantir faces three different sets of competitors:</p><p><blockquote>但即使Palantir很特别；这有关系吗？这如何将其与竞争对手区分开来？在这方面，Palantir面临三组不同的竞争对手：</blockquote></p><p> Firstly, Palantir is competing with traditional consulting firms. Ultimately, this is what the company does, since it is working hand-in-hand with its clients to improve their operations. Consulting firms like Accenture and McKinsey do this to a certain degree, but at the moment, they lack the technical requirements and niche focus that Palantir has.</p><p><blockquote>首先，Palantir正在与传统咨询公司竞争。最终，这就是该公司所做的，因为它正在与客户携手改善他们的运营。埃森哲和麦肯锡等咨询公司在一定程度上做到了这一点，但目前，他们缺乏Palantir所具备的技术要求和利基重点。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> From a data analytics sector perspective, Palantir could be put into the same category as companies like IBM or SAP SE (SAP). These companies do indeed have the necessary resources to compete with Palantir in terms of services, but not on price. These companies have been around for too long and are way too big to be able to compete in price with Palantir. They simply cannot scale down efficiently enough.</p><p><blockquote>从数据分析行业的角度来看，Palantir可以与IBM或SAP SE(SAP)等公司归入同一类别。这些公司确实拥有在服务方面与Palantir竞争的必要资源，但不是在价格上。这些公司已经存在太久了，规模太大，无法在价格上与Palantir竞争。他们根本无法足够有效地缩小规模。</blockquote></p><p> Lastly, the company competes head-to-head with other defence contractors such as Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corporation (BAH) and SAIC. The problem these firms have competing with Palantir is that they are not specialized enough within their offerings.</p><p><blockquote>最后，该公司与博思艾伦控股公司(BAH)和SAIC等其他国防承包商展开正面竞争。这些公司与Palantir竞争的问题是他们的产品不够专业化。</blockquote></p><p> To sum up, we would argue that Palantir's moat comes, firstly, from its business proposition. Palantir was created with a very clear idea behind it, which allowed it to be a niche company. This specialization also allows it to be more efficient, and offer clients more competitive prices.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，我们认为Palantir的护城河首先来自于其商业主张。Palantir的创建背后有一个非常明确的想法，这使得它成为一家利基公司。这种专业化也使其更加高效，并为客户提供更具竞争力的价格。</blockquote></p><p> It is true that this business model can be copied. There is nothing stopping new companies from doing what Palantir is doing and there are some startups attempting to do this, such as&nbsp;Digital Reasoning, but bear in mind this company has only ever received $134 million in funding. What does set Palantir apart from its competitors and is something that they can't easily replicate is its workforce. Palantir spends a lot of money to find and keep the best talent in the industry. A big part of this is done through stock-based compensation, which is a hot topic&nbsp;I discussed here. In any case, Palantir has the advantage of being \"the place to be\" right now, within the industry. This popularity and recognition has increased even more since its IPO and is a key factor in attracting and retaining young talent. This talent is, ultimately, the company's biggest strength.</p><p><blockquote>诚然，这种商业模式是可以复制的。没有什么可以阻止新公司做Palantir正在做的事情，也有一些初创公司试图这样做，例如数字推理，但请记住，这家公司只获得了1.34亿美元的资金。Palantir与竞争对手的区别在于其员工队伍，这也是他们无法轻易复制的。Palantir花费大量资金寻找并留住业内最优秀的人才。其中很大一部分是通过基于股票的薪酬来完成的，这是我在这里讨论的一个热门话题。无论如何，Palantir具有目前行业内“最佳去处”的优势。自首次公开募股以来，这种受欢迎程度和认可度进一步提高，是吸引和留住年轻人才的关键因素。这种人才最终是公司最大的优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Addressable Market &amp; Growth Opportunities</b></p><p><blockquote><b>潜在市场和增长机会</b></blockquote></p><p> With that said, let's proceed towards analysing Palantir's TAM and Growth outlook.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，让我们继续分析Palantir的TAM和增长前景。</blockquote></p><p> In the sections above, we mentioned how Palantir is in a unique situation, because it is both a consulting firm and a data analytics firm, and it also has significant government contracts. Therefore, we could look at TAM from these three perspectives:</p><p><blockquote>在上面的章节中，我们提到了Palantir的独特处境，因为它既是一家咨询公司，也是一家数据分析公司，而且还拥有重要的政府合同。因此，我们可以从以下三个角度来看待TAM：</blockquote></p><p> Starting with consulting, this is perhaps the least exciting of the three areas where Palantir can grow. According to research, the \"Management Consulting Services\" industry will grow at a CAGR of 8% through 2025, which would put the industry at a size of $1201.06 billion. Granted, this is not impressive growth but it is a remarkable size. In this sense, Palantir could actually attack much of this market, which is now dominated by \"the big four\".</p><p><blockquote>从咨询开始，这可能是Palantir可以发展的三个领域中最不令人兴奋的。根据研究，到2025年，“管理咨询服务”行业将以8%的CAGR增长，这将使该行业的规模达到12010.6亿美元。诚然，这并不是令人印象深刻的增长，但它是一个非凡的规模。从这个意义上说，Palantir实际上可以攻击这个目前由“四大”主导的市场的大部分。</blockquote></p><p> From the point of view of data analytics, we have a market that, in this case, is growing very fast. According to Quince Market Insights, this segment will grow at a&nbsp;CAGR of 25% in the next 10 years. Furthermore, studies have also found that, currently, companies only analyze around&nbsp;12% of their data.This creates a massive opportunity for a company like Palantir to come in, and show these companies exactly how and why they need to analyze their data.</p><p><blockquote>从数据分析的角度来看，我们有一个增长非常快的市场。根据Quince Market Insights的数据，该细分市场在未来10年将以25%的CAGR增长。此外，研究还发现，目前，公司只分析了大约12%的数据。这为像Palantir这样的公司创造了巨大的机会，并向这些公司展示了他们需要如何以及为什么分析他们的数据。</blockquote></p><p> Lastly, since Palantir works closely with the government, it is only reasonable to believe that the more it spends, the more Palantir will make.The CBO projects&nbsp;average yearly deficits of $1.2 trillion from 2022 to 2030. This is in line with the current tendency of continued increase in public spending, but what is most encouraging is where this spending will take place:</p><p><blockquote>最后，由于Palantir与政府密切合作，因此有理由相信它花的越多，Palantir赚的就越多。CBO预计，从2022年到2030年，年均赤字为1.2万亿美元。这与目前公共开支持续增加的趋势是一致的，但最令人鼓舞的是，这项开支将会发生在何处：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8330575726862d333c1cfabc18987a50\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"626\"><span>Source:CBO.gov</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：CBO.gov</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By 2030, the biggest item on the Federal government's expense sheet will be Major Health Care Programs, which will be equivalent to 9% of GDP. Data from the NHE also suggest that by 2028 healthcare will be a&nbsp;$6.2 trillion business.Again, this is great news for Palantir, since data analytics within the healthcare industry is a high growth area. Palantir already has clients in this area, including the&nbsp;UK's National Health System[NHS].</p><p><blockquote>到2030年，联邦政府开支单上最大的项目将是主要的医疗保健项目，这将相当于GDP的9%。NHE的数据还表明，到2028年，医疗保健业务将达到6.2万亿美元。同样，这对Palantir来说是个好消息，因为医疗保健行业的数据分析是一个高增长领域。Palantir已经在该领域拥有客户，包括英国国家卫生系统[NHS]。</blockquote></p><p> All in all, Palantir has the benefit of working within a fast-growing sector, data, but with the ability of being able to deploy their technology and workforce to solve niche applications. Given that the data analytics industry is projected to grow at 25% and that Palantir has strong government connections, we believe the company could easily achieve analysts' goal of 30% CAGR over the next 5 years.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，Palantir的优势在于在快速增长的数据领域工作，但也有能力部署他们的技术和劳动力来解决利基应用。鉴于数据分析行业预计将增长25%，并且Palantir拥有强大的政府关系，我们相信该公司可以轻松实现分析师未来5年复合年增长率30%的目标。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Profitability Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盈利能力分析</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Profitability is expected to grow as revenues reach higher levels. The question that any investor would like answered is not only if this is going to be the case, but by how much. Our aim here is to make a forecast of Palantir revenues and earnings until 2030 so that we can later make a sound valuation of the stock through earnings multiples. The method used here is a combination of trendline analysis of existing financials, performances by most comparable competitors, and estimates by analysts and the company itself.</p><p><blockquote>随着收入达到更高水平，盈利能力预计将增长。任何投资者想要回答的问题不仅是这种情况是否会发生，而且会发生多少。我们的目标是预测Palantir到2030年的收入和收益，以便我们以后可以通过市盈率对该股票进行合理的估值。这里使用的方法是对现有财务状况的趋势线分析、大多数可比竞争对手的表现以及分析师和公司本身的估计的结合。</blockquote></p><p> We have already talked about the addressable market and growth prospects, now it is time to quantify the expected revenue path for Palantir. Since companies rarely sustain such high growth rates in the long run, we find that a second order polynomial trendline is often the best method to calculate this. This type of equation delivers a flatter curve than an exponential trendline, which assumes a constant growth rate. For Palantir's quarterly revenue, it is also a very good fit as you can see below. You can see the trendline along the actual revenue recorded in the last nine quarters, and a projection until 2030 Q4.</p><p><blockquote>我们已经讨论了潜在市场和增长前景，现在是时候量化Palantir的预期收入路径了。由于公司很少长期保持如此高的增长率，我们发现二阶多项式趋势线通常是计算这一点的最佳方法。这种类型的方程提供了比指数趋势线更平坦的曲线，指数趋势线假设增长率恒定。对于Palantir的季度收入来说，它也非常适合，如下所示。您可以看到过去九个季度记录的实际收入的趋势线，以及到2030年第四季度的预测。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acada8ddc443d930e8cb4e3929b42015\" tg-width=\"515\" tg-height=\"341\"><span>Source: Author's work based on financial records. Revenue in $million. Quarters are numbered from 1 (Q1 2019) to 48 (Q4 2030)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者基于财务记录的工作。收入单位为百万美元。季度编号为1（2019年第一季度）至48（2030年第四季度）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If you apply the function above you get a forecasted yearly revenue of 11.9 billion for 2030, including $3.1 billion in Q4 of that year. This is not far from the consensus estimate for 2030 you can find on Seeking Alpha, which is $12.42 billion. According to the latest earnings call, management expects to deliver 30%+ growth at least in the next four years. To put this into perspective, a CAGR of 30% until 2030 would give a revenue of $11.5 billion. Taking the three into account, we will keep our trendline estimate of 11.9, which lies between the other two figures.</p><p><blockquote>如果你应用上面的函数，你会得到2030年的预测年收入为119亿美元，其中包括当年第四季度的31亿美元。这与Seeking Alpha上对2030年的共识估计（124.2亿美元）相差不远。根据最新的收益看涨期权，管理层预计至少在未来四年内实现30%以上的增长。从这个角度来看，到2030年，30%的复合年增长率将带来115亿美元的收入。考虑到这三者，我们将保持趋势线估计值11.9，该值位于其他两个数字之间。</blockquote></p><p> Gross margins have been improving gradually according to GAAP figures over the last nine quarters, from nearly 68% in the first quarter of 2019 to over 78% in the latest quarter. Except for an unusually bad figure in Q3 2020, which has been taken out of the equation for a smoother analysis, the gross margin as a function of revenue shows a predictable path of improvement through a linear trend, as you can see in this chart.</p><p><blockquote>根据GAAP数据，过去九个季度的毛利率一直在逐步提高，从2019年第一季度的近68%提高到最近一个季度的78%以上。除了2020年第三季度异常糟糕的数据（为了更顺利的分析，该数据已从等式中删除）外，毛利率作为收入的函数通过线性趋势显示了可预测的改善路径，如您在此图表中看到的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9094dcdd5ddbc9df1499318bf694ad7a\" tg-width=\"481\" tg-height=\"289\"><span>Source: Author's work based on financial records. Items in $million</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者基于财务记录的工作。项目（百万美元）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Data excludes a figure of (289,140) from Q3 2020.</p><p><blockquote>数据不包括2020年第三季度的数字（289,140）。</blockquote></p><p> The linear equation above, with a 0.9 slope, generates a forecast where the gross margin should tend towards 90% of revenue. Applying this formula to the forecasted revenue of $11.9 billion predicts a gross margin figure of $10.6 billion for 2030.</p><p><blockquote>上面的线性方程斜率为0.9，预测毛利率应趋向于收入的90%。将此公式应用于119亿美元的预测收入，预计2030年的毛利率为106亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> In order to transform gross margins into net income, so that we can make a valuation based on an earnings multiple, we will look at one of Palantir's comparables, discussed&nbsp;in a previous article, Cognizant (NASDAQ:CTSH). The reason for using Cognizant is that not only is the activity they carry out similar but it is also an example of a profitable pier with a fairly consistent earnings margin, and with debt and gross margin volumes comparable to the ones we are predicting for Palantir.</p><p><blockquote>为了将毛利率转化为净利润，以便我们可以根据市盈率进行估值，我们将研究Palantir的可比公司之一，如上一篇文章中所讨论的，Cognizant（纳斯达克股票代码：CTSH）。使用Cognizant的原因是，他们开展的活动不仅相似，而且它也是一个盈利码头的例子，利润率相当稳定，债务和毛利率与我们对Palantir的预测相当。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7effd28b7de277b78a107d14608164ff\" tg-width=\"481\" tg-height=\"289\"><span>Source: Author's work.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者作品。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With gross margins stable at around 6 billion in recent years, CTSH has maintained a healthy level of net income, ranging from 22% to 35% of gross profits. To make a fair estimate, we will assume the average percentage through the 10-year period, which is 30.61% of gross profit. We will also assume that Palantir achieves that level in 2030, with a gradual increase of the percentage until then.</p><p><blockquote>近年来毛利率稳定在60亿左右，CTSH净利润保持在健康水平，占毛利润的22%至35%不等。为了做出公平的估计，我们将假设10年期间的平均百分比，即毛利的30.61%。我们还假设Palantir将在2030年达到这一水平，并在此之前逐步增加百分比。</blockquote></p><p> This completes our revenue and earnings estimates for Palantir in 2030, reaching 11.9 billion revenue, $10.6 billion gross margin, and $3.3 billion net income.</p><p><blockquote>这完成了我们对Palantir 2030年收入和盈利的预测，收入达到119亿美元，毛利率达到106亿美元，净利润达到33亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td>Year</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>年</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2021</p><p><blockquote><td>2021</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2022</p><p><blockquote><td>2022</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2023</p><p><blockquote><td>2023</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2024</p><p><blockquote><td>2024</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2025</p><p><blockquote><td>2025</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2026</p><p><blockquote><td>2026</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2027</p><p><blockquote><td>2027</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2028</p><p><blockquote><td>2028</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2029</p><p><blockquote><td>2029</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2030</p><p><blockquote><td>2030</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Reven.</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>雷文。</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1,581</p><p><blockquote><td>1,581</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,196</p><p><blockquote><td>2,196</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,942</p><p><blockquote><td>2,942</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>3,820</p><p><blockquote><td>3,820</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,830</p><p><blockquote><td>4,830</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5,972</p><p><blockquote><td>5,972</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7,245</p><p><blockquote><td>7,245</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>8,650</p><p><blockquote><td>8,650</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10,188</p><p><blockquote><td>10,188</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>11,856</p><p><blockquote><td>11,856</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Gross Profit</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>毛利</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1,382</p><p><blockquote><td>1,382</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1,936</p><p><blockquote><td>1,936</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,608</p><p><blockquote><td>2,608</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>3,399</p><p><blockquote><td>3,399</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,309</p><p><blockquote><td>4,309</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5,338</p><p><blockquote><td>5,338</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6,485</p><p><blockquote><td>6,485</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7,751</p><p><blockquote><td>7,751</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9,136</p><p><blockquote><td>9,136</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10,639</p><p><blockquote><td>10,639</td></blockquote></p><p></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Net Income</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>净收入</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>42</p><p><blockquote><td>42</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>119</p><p><blockquote><td>119</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>240</p><p><blockquote><td>240</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>416</p><p><blockquote><td>416</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>660</p><p><blockquote><td>660</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>980</p><p><blockquote><td>980</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1,390</p><p><blockquote><td>1,390</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1,898</p><p><blockquote><td>1,898</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,517</p><p><blockquote><td>2,517</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>3,257</p><p><blockquote><td>3,257</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> Source: Author's work. Items in $millions.</p><p><blockquote>来源：作者作品。百万美元的项目。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Having forecasted revenues and earnings, we are prepared to estimate a path for Palantir's stock price. In order to do this, we need to also look into financing through equity and how the dilution will affect share prices. We are going to continue using the 2030 horizon as the timeframe.</p><p><blockquote>预测收入和盈利后，我们准备估计Palantir股价的走势。为了做到这一点，我们还需要研究通过股权融资以及稀释将如何影响股价。我们将继续使用2030年作为时间框架。</blockquote></p><p> First, we will create an estimate for market capitalization based on the current sector median earnings multiple, and then we will make a forecast for the dilution. The current GAAP TTM Price/earnings ratio for the sector is 33.94. The assumption here is that as Palantir becomes profitable, its valuation should approach this multiple and be fairly valued for its earnings. Based on the earnings we forecasted and the 33.94 PE ratio, we get the following estimated market capitalizations:</p><p><blockquote>首先，我们将根据当前行业市盈率中位数对市值进行估计，然后对稀释进行预测。该行业目前的GAAP TTM市盈率为33.94。这里的假设是，随着Palantir实现盈利，其估值应接近该倍数，并且其盈利估值合理。根据我们预测的盈利和33.94的市盈率，我们得到以下估计市值：</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td>Year</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>年</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2021</p><p><blockquote><td>2021</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2022</p><p><blockquote><td>2022</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2023</p><p><blockquote><td>2023</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2024</p><p><blockquote><td>2024</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2025</p><p><blockquote><td>2025</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2026</p><p><blockquote><td>2026</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2027</p><p><blockquote><td>2027</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2028</p><p><blockquote><td>2028</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2029</p><p><blockquote><td>2029</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2030</p><p><blockquote><td>2030</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Net Inc.</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>网络公司。</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>42</p><p><blockquote><td>42</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>119</p><p><blockquote><td>119</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>240</p><p><blockquote><td>240</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>416</p><p><blockquote><td>416</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>660</p><p><blockquote><td>660</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>980</p><p><blockquote><td>980</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1,390</p><p><blockquote><td>1,390</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1,898</p><p><blockquote><td>1,898</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,517</p><p><blockquote><td>2,517</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>3,257</p><p><blockquote><td>3,257</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Mkt. Cap [PE]</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>市场。帽[PE]</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1,436</p><p><blockquote><td>1,436</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,023</p><p><blockquote><td>4,023</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>8,129</p><p><blockquote><td>8,129</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14,126</p><p><blockquote><td>14,126</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22,384</p><p><blockquote><td>22,384</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>33,272</p><p><blockquote><td>33,272</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>47,160</p><p><blockquote><td>47,160</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>64,420</p><p><blockquote><td>64,420</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>85,421</p><p><blockquote><td>85,421</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>110,532</p><p><blockquote><td>110,532</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> Source: Author's work. Items in $millions.</p><p><blockquote>来源：作者作品。百万美元的项目。</blockquote></p><p> As you can see, the current market capitalization of slightly over $50 billion wouldn't be justified by earnings until after 2027, reaching a level of $111 billion by 2030. This represents a CAGR of just 8.57%, before we take dilution into account.</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，目前略高于500亿美元的市值要到2027年之后才能被盈利证明是合理的，到2030年将达到1110亿美元的水平。在我们考虑稀释之前，这意味着复合年增长率仅为8.57%。</blockquote></p><p> In order to predict how the number of common shares is likely to evolve over these years, we have made a forecast of the book value based on revenue, assuming the balance sheet maintains a similar structure relative to the volume of operations. If we look at the last four quarters, we have a fairly consistent linear pattern of how book value has increased with quarterly revenue, as you can see below.</p><p><blockquote>为了预测这些年普通股数量可能如何演变，我们根据收入对账面价值进行了预测，假设资产负债表相对于业务量保持类似的结构。如果我们看看过去四个季度，我们会发现账面价值随季度收入增长的线性模式相当一致，如下所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9066505bd8b5fce4ebf0d4f538a4bafe\" tg-width=\"481\" tg-height=\"289\"><span>Source: Author's work based on financial records. Items in $million</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者基于财务记录的工作。项目（百万美元）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Applying this equation, with a revenue of $3.1 billion in Q4 2030, as per our previous forecast, the book value should rise to $34.2 billion. If we take into account the current book value of 1.8 billion and the accumulated net income we have already forecasted for the whole period, which is $11.5 billion, we estimate that an additional $20.9 billion of funding through new equity will be required. At the current share price of $27.37, this would mean 739 million additional common shares by the end of 2030. Added to the current 1.8 billion outstanding, the total is 2.6 billion common shares. Applying the $111 billion market capitalization we have forecasted, the resulting target price for the end of 2030 is $41.87. You can see a summary of these figures below.</p><p><blockquote>应用这个等式，根据我们之前的预测，2030年第四季度的收入为31亿美元，账面价值应升至342亿美元。如果我们考虑到当前18亿美元的账面价值以及我们已经预测的整个期间的累计净利润115亿美元，我们估计将需要通过新股权额外筹集209亿美元的资金。按照目前27.37美元的股价计算，这意味着到2030年底将增加7.39亿股普通股。加上目前已发行的18亿股，普通股总数为26亿股。应用我们预测的1110亿美元市值，2030年底的目标价为41.87美元。您可以在下面看到这些数字的摘要。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td>Concept</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>概念</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>Amount</p><p><blockquote><td>数量</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Revenue Q4 2030</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>2030年第四季度收入</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>3,128</p><p><blockquote><td>3,128</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Book Value Q4 2030</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>2030年第四季度账面价值</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>34,212</p><p><blockquote><td>34,212</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Book Value Q1 2021</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>2021年第一季度账面价值</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1,806</p><p><blockquote><td>1,806</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Acc. Net Income Q2 2021-Q4 2030</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>Acc.2021年第二季度-2030年第四季度净利润</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>11,517</p><p><blockquote><td>11,517</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Financing from new equity</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>新增股权融资</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20,889</p><p><blockquote><td>20,889</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Current Share Price</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>当前股价</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$ 27.37</p><p><blockquote><td>$27.37</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>New shares required</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>所需新股</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>763</p><p><blockquote><td>763</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Market cap 2030 Q4</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>2030年第四季度市值</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>110,532</p><p><blockquote><td>110,532</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Nº Shares 2030 Q4 (millions)</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>2030年第四季度股数（百万）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,640</p><p><blockquote><td>2,640</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Target Price 2030 Q4</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>2030年第四季度目标价</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$ 41.87</p><p><blockquote><td>$41.87</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>CAGR</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>CAGR</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.58%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.58%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> Source: Author's work. Monetary items in $millions, except per share items, nº of shares in millions.</p><p><blockquote>来源：作者作品。货币项目以百万美元为单位，每股项目除外，股份数量以百万为单位。</blockquote></p><p> As you can see, the expected CAGR for Palantir's stock price as per our forecasted fair value at the end of 2030 is just 4.58%. If we were to require, say, a 10% return, which is more reasonable for a growth stock, the fair price today would be $16.93, 38% lower than the current price.</p><p><blockquote>如您所见，根据我们预测的2030年底公允价值，Palantir股价的预期复合年增长率仅为4.58%。如果我们要求10%的回报率（这对于成长型股票来说更合理），那么今天的公平价格将是16.93美元，比当前价格低38%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Having said all this, we also have to mention some particular challenges that a company like Palantir faces. The most significant of these would relate to how the company has to manage its image in a world where privacy is becoming \"taboo\".</p><p><blockquote>说了这么多，我们还必须提到像Palantir这样的公司面临的一些特殊挑战。其中最重要的是，在一个隐私正成为“禁忌”的世界里，该公司必须如何管理自己的形象。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir is a company that, on many levels, has a lot of power, which can be both a blessing and a curse. The company has to be very careful with its data to avoid any events that could damage its reputation, which it needs in order to survive. Think, for example, Edward Snowden, who before becoming one of the most wanted men in the world was working for Booz Allen. What would happen if the next whistleblower came from within Palantir's ranks?</p><p><blockquote>Palantir是一家在很多层面上都拥有巨大权力的公司，这既可能是福也可能是祸。该公司必须非常小心地处理其数据，以避免任何可能损害其声誉的事件，而这是其生存所必需的。以爱德华·斯诺登为例，他在成为世界头号通缉犯之一之前曾在博思艾伦工作。如果下一个举报人来自Palantir内部会发生什么？</blockquote></p><p> On top of that, Palantir is also facing resistance from organizations abroad. For example, there is currently a campaign in the UK trying to stop Palantir fromworking with the NHS. It's understandable that some people may not want their medical data to be handled by a foreign company, even if it is from an allied country.</p><p><blockquote>除此之外，Palantir还面临着来自海外组织的阻力。例如，目前英国有一场运动试图阻止Palantir与NHS合作。可以理解的是，有些人可能不希望他们的医疗数据由外国公司处理，即使它来自盟国。</blockquote></p><p> Ultimately, these are very particular challenges that Palantir faces. Its growth could be hampered if people or even the government start to think the company is \"too powerful\". Furthermore, if anything happened to damage the company's reputation, Palantir could be finished overnight. Of course, this is why the company invests so heavily in its workforce. But will it be enough?</p><p><blockquote>最终，这些都是Palantir面临的非常特殊的挑战。如果人们甚至政府开始认为该公司“过于强大”，其增长可能会受到阻碍。此外，如果发生任何损害公司声誉的事情，Palantir可能会在一夜之间被终结。当然，这也是公司在员工方面投入如此之多的原因。但这就够了吗？</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> In conclusion, we believe Palantir is qualitatively a great company. They operate in a niche market with a lot of growth potential. On top of that, Palantir has one of the best technologies and workforces in the market right now, but this is not enough. Even with double-digit growth and assuming a steady path towards profitability, Palantir seems way too expensive today to provide investors with good returns. A great company doesn't always make a great investment, and we feel this is the case with Palantir.</p><p><blockquote>总之，我们相信Palantir在质量上是一家伟大的公司。他们在一个具有巨大增长潜力的利基市场运营。最重要的是，Palantir拥有目前市场上最好的技术和劳动力之一，但这还不够。即使Palantir实现了两位数的增长并稳步实现盈利，但如今的Palantir似乎过于昂贵，无法为投资者提供良好的回报。一家伟大的公司并不总是做出伟大的投资，我们认为Palantir就是这种情况。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437458-palantir-great-company-bad-investment\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437458-palantir-great-company-bad-investment","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115821085","content_text":"Summary\n\nPalantir holds a unique place in the market and has a significant moat around this business.\nHaving said this, even under optimistic assumptions, Palantir looks overvalued.\nFurthermore, Palantir faces a unique and hard to control set of challenges.\n\nMaria Marganingsih/iStock via Getty Images\nThesis Summary\nPalantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) is, by many accounts, an outstanding company. We believe that Palantir occupies a niche spot in the market, and has built a moat around its business thanks to its technology and workforce.\nWe have derived a valuation for Palantir using trend analysis and comparables, with a 2030 horizon, where we tackle mainly profitability and equity dilution. Although our target price for that year is nearly $42 per share, this only represents a 4.6% annual growth rate from the current price.\nUltimately, though Palantir is a great business, the current price does not offer investors attractive returns.\nWhat makes Palantir special?\nPalantir seems to be one of the most popular stocks to talk about in the last few months. The company, which has been around since 2003, but IPO'd only eight and a half months ago, is followed closely by both hawkish bears and delighted bulls. But why? What exactly makes Palantir so special?\nThe bears would point out nothing, and while I do agree that, oftentimes, unwarranted hype is created around buzzwords like \"data\", I will argue here that Palantir is special. This is important because it puts Palantir in a great situation in terms of the competitive landscape and growth opportunities. However, it also creates a very particular set of \"risks\" and challenges for the company.\nOn the most superficial level, Palantir is a \"data analytics company\", which has found itself a nice spot on the list of government contractors, both domestic and abroad. This already makes the company more interesting than many others. There is nothing today growing faster than data, and at close second we could put government spending. However, this misses the point of what actually makes the company special, or, more specifically, what has allowed the company to gain so much favour with public institutions, and now private clients.\nIf we could put it into one sentence, we would say the following: Palantir walks a fine line between data analytics and consulting. Indeed, the company has some very powerful proprietary software, which we might as well call an AI, but it also has one of the most talented workforces in the world, with specific task forces being created to address the needs of each client/contract.\nThink about it like a mix between McKinsey and International Business Machines (IBM). In practice, it's not enough to have a powerful computer that can find great insights. First, it has to be led in the right direction, and then those insights have to be implemented properly. And of course, once you implement new measures, these create a whole new set of variables and data, so you can rinse and repeat indefinitely.\nThis is what a lot of people miss about this company. Some think it just has great software, which it does, but its biggest asset, we would argue, is its \"business model\" which is powered by its workforce. Furthermore, many of those who do acknowledge the fact that Palantir relies heavily on using specialized employees to address their clients' needs point this out as a weakness rather than the great strength that it is. They would argue that Palantir has to spend a lot of money on employing people to help their clients use their product, which makes it less \"profitable\", but this is a very rudimentary understanding of the situation. It's true that it might not achieve such high margins as a traditional SaaS, but it definitely doesn't mean the company is unprofitable. Consulting firms, like McKinsey or Accenture plc (ACN), do just this, employ people to help out their clients, and they certainly don't seem to struggle to make a profit. Ultimately, a cost is justified as long as it brings sufficient value.\nDoes Palantir have a \"moat\"?\nBut even if Palantir is special; does this matter? How does this set it apart from its competitors? In this regard, Palantir faces three different sets of competitors:\nFirstly, Palantir is competing with traditional consulting firms. Ultimately, this is what the company does, since it is working hand-in-hand with its clients to improve their operations. Consulting firms like Accenture and McKinsey do this to a certain degree, but at the moment, they lack the technical requirements and niche focus that Palantir has.\nFrom a data analytics sector perspective, Palantir could be put into the same category as companies like IBM or SAP SE (SAP). These companies do indeed have the necessary resources to compete with Palantir in terms of services, but not on price. These companies have been around for too long and are way too big to be able to compete in price with Palantir. They simply cannot scale down efficiently enough.\nLastly, the company competes head-to-head with other defence contractors such as Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corporation (BAH) and SAIC. The problem these firms have competing with Palantir is that they are not specialized enough within their offerings.\nTo sum up, we would argue that Palantir's moat comes, firstly, from its business proposition. Palantir was created with a very clear idea behind it, which allowed it to be a niche company. This specialization also allows it to be more efficient, and offer clients more competitive prices.\nIt is true that this business model can be copied. There is nothing stopping new companies from doing what Palantir is doing and there are some startups attempting to do this, such as Digital Reasoning, but bear in mind this company has only ever received $134 million in funding. What does set Palantir apart from its competitors and is something that they can't easily replicate is its workforce. Palantir spends a lot of money to find and keep the best talent in the industry. A big part of this is done through stock-based compensation, which is a hot topic I discussed here. In any case, Palantir has the advantage of being \"the place to be\" right now, within the industry. This popularity and recognition has increased even more since its IPO and is a key factor in attracting and retaining young talent. This talent is, ultimately, the company's biggest strength.\nAddressable Market & Growth Opportunities\nWith that said, let's proceed towards analysing Palantir's TAM and Growth outlook.\nIn the sections above, we mentioned how Palantir is in a unique situation, because it is both a consulting firm and a data analytics firm, and it also has significant government contracts. Therefore, we could look at TAM from these three perspectives:\nStarting with consulting, this is perhaps the least exciting of the three areas where Palantir can grow. According to research, the \"Management Consulting Services\" industry will grow at a CAGR of 8% through 2025, which would put the industry at a size of $1201.06 billion. Granted, this is not impressive growth but it is a remarkable size. In this sense, Palantir could actually attack much of this market, which is now dominated by \"the big four\".\nFrom the point of view of data analytics, we have a market that, in this case, is growing very fast. According to Quince Market Insights, this segment will grow at a CAGR of 25% in the next 10 years. Furthermore, studies have also found that, currently, companies only analyze around 12% of their data.This creates a massive opportunity for a company like Palantir to come in, and show these companies exactly how and why they need to analyze their data.\nLastly, since Palantir works closely with the government, it is only reasonable to believe that the more it spends, the more Palantir will make.The CBO projects average yearly deficits of $1.2 trillion from 2022 to 2030. This is in line with the current tendency of continued increase in public spending, but what is most encouraging is where this spending will take place:\nSource:CBO.gov\nBy 2030, the biggest item on the Federal government's expense sheet will be Major Health Care Programs, which will be equivalent to 9% of GDP. Data from the NHE also suggest that by 2028 healthcare will be a $6.2 trillion business.Again, this is great news for Palantir, since data analytics within the healthcare industry is a high growth area. Palantir already has clients in this area, including the UK's National Health System[NHS].\nAll in all, Palantir has the benefit of working within a fast-growing sector, data, but with the ability of being able to deploy their technology and workforce to solve niche applications. Given that the data analytics industry is projected to grow at 25% and that Palantir has strong government connections, we believe the company could easily achieve analysts' goal of 30% CAGR over the next 5 years.\nProfitability Analysis\nProfitability is expected to grow as revenues reach higher levels. The question that any investor would like answered is not only if this is going to be the case, but by how much. Our aim here is to make a forecast of Palantir revenues and earnings until 2030 so that we can later make a sound valuation of the stock through earnings multiples. The method used here is a combination of trendline analysis of existing financials, performances by most comparable competitors, and estimates by analysts and the company itself.\nWe have already talked about the addressable market and growth prospects, now it is time to quantify the expected revenue path for Palantir. Since companies rarely sustain such high growth rates in the long run, we find that a second order polynomial trendline is often the best method to calculate this. This type of equation delivers a flatter curve than an exponential trendline, which assumes a constant growth rate. For Palantir's quarterly revenue, it is also a very good fit as you can see below. You can see the trendline along the actual revenue recorded in the last nine quarters, and a projection until 2030 Q4.\nSource: Author's work based on financial records. Revenue in $million. Quarters are numbered from 1 (Q1 2019) to 48 (Q4 2030)\nIf you apply the function above you get a forecasted yearly revenue of 11.9 billion for 2030, including $3.1 billion in Q4 of that year. This is not far from the consensus estimate for 2030 you can find on Seeking Alpha, which is $12.42 billion. According to the latest earnings call, management expects to deliver 30%+ growth at least in the next four years. To put this into perspective, a CAGR of 30% until 2030 would give a revenue of $11.5 billion. Taking the three into account, we will keep our trendline estimate of 11.9, which lies between the other two figures.\nGross margins have been improving gradually according to GAAP figures over the last nine quarters, from nearly 68% in the first quarter of 2019 to over 78% in the latest quarter. Except for an unusually bad figure in Q3 2020, which has been taken out of the equation for a smoother analysis, the gross margin as a function of revenue shows a predictable path of improvement through a linear trend, as you can see in this chart.\nSource: Author's work based on financial records. Items in $million\nData excludes a figure of (289,140) from Q3 2020.\nThe linear equation above, with a 0.9 slope, generates a forecast where the gross margin should tend towards 90% of revenue. Applying this formula to the forecasted revenue of $11.9 billion predicts a gross margin figure of $10.6 billion for 2030.\nIn order to transform gross margins into net income, so that we can make a valuation based on an earnings multiple, we will look at one of Palantir's comparables, discussed in a previous article, Cognizant (NASDAQ:CTSH). The reason for using Cognizant is that not only is the activity they carry out similar but it is also an example of a profitable pier with a fairly consistent earnings margin, and with debt and gross margin volumes comparable to the ones we are predicting for Palantir.\nSource: Author's work.\nWith gross margins stable at around 6 billion in recent years, CTSH has maintained a healthy level of net income, ranging from 22% to 35% of gross profits. To make a fair estimate, we will assume the average percentage through the 10-year period, which is 30.61% of gross profit. We will also assume that Palantir achieves that level in 2030, with a gradual increase of the percentage until then.\nThis completes our revenue and earnings estimates for Palantir in 2030, reaching 11.9 billion revenue, $10.6 billion gross margin, and $3.3 billion net income.\n\n\n\nYear\n2021\n2022\n2023\n2024\n2025\n2026\n2027\n2028\n2029\n2030\n\n\nReven.\n1,581\n2,196\n2,942\n3,820\n4,830\n5,972\n7,245\n8,650\n10,188\n11,856\n\n\nGross Profit\n1,382\n1,936\n2,608\n3,399\n4,309\n5,338\n6,485\n7,751\n9,136\n10,639\n\n\nNet Income\n42\n119\n240\n416\n660\n980\n1,390\n1,898\n2,517\n3,257\n\n\n\nSource: Author's work. Items in $millions.\nValuation\nHaving forecasted revenues and earnings, we are prepared to estimate a path for Palantir's stock price. In order to do this, we need to also look into financing through equity and how the dilution will affect share prices. We are going to continue using the 2030 horizon as the timeframe.\nFirst, we will create an estimate for market capitalization based on the current sector median earnings multiple, and then we will make a forecast for the dilution. The current GAAP TTM Price/earnings ratio for the sector is 33.94. The assumption here is that as Palantir becomes profitable, its valuation should approach this multiple and be fairly valued for its earnings. Based on the earnings we forecasted and the 33.94 PE ratio, we get the following estimated market capitalizations:\n\n\n\nYear\n2021\n2022\n2023\n2024\n2025\n2026\n2027\n2028\n2029\n2030\n\n\nNet Inc.\n42\n119\n240\n416\n660\n980\n1,390\n1,898\n2,517\n3,257\n\n\nMkt. Cap [PE]\n1,436\n4,023\n8,129\n14,126\n22,384\n33,272\n47,160\n64,420\n85,421\n110,532\n\n\n\nSource: Author's work. Items in $millions.\nAs you can see, the current market capitalization of slightly over $50 billion wouldn't be justified by earnings until after 2027, reaching a level of $111 billion by 2030. This represents a CAGR of just 8.57%, before we take dilution into account.\nIn order to predict how the number of common shares is likely to evolve over these years, we have made a forecast of the book value based on revenue, assuming the balance sheet maintains a similar structure relative to the volume of operations. If we look at the last four quarters, we have a fairly consistent linear pattern of how book value has increased with quarterly revenue, as you can see below.\nSource: Author's work based on financial records. Items in $million\nApplying this equation, with a revenue of $3.1 billion in Q4 2030, as per our previous forecast, the book value should rise to $34.2 billion. If we take into account the current book value of 1.8 billion and the accumulated net income we have already forecasted for the whole period, which is $11.5 billion, we estimate that an additional $20.9 billion of funding through new equity will be required. At the current share price of $27.37, this would mean 739 million additional common shares by the end of 2030. Added to the current 1.8 billion outstanding, the total is 2.6 billion common shares. Applying the $111 billion market capitalization we have forecasted, the resulting target price for the end of 2030 is $41.87. You can see a summary of these figures below.\n\n\n\nConcept\nAmount\n\n\nRevenue Q4 2030\n3,128\n\n\nBook Value Q4 2030\n34,212\n\n\nBook Value Q1 2021\n1,806\n\n\nAcc. Net Income Q2 2021-Q4 2030\n11,517\n\n\nFinancing from new equity\n20,889\n\n\nCurrent Share Price\n$ 27.37\n\n\nNew shares required\n763\n\n\nMarket cap 2030 Q4\n110,532\n\n\nNº Shares 2030 Q4 (millions)\n2,640\n\n\nTarget Price 2030 Q4\n$ 41.87\n\n\nCAGR\n4.58%\n\n\n\nSource: Author's work. Monetary items in $millions, except per share items, nº of shares in millions.\nAs you can see, the expected CAGR for Palantir's stock price as per our forecasted fair value at the end of 2030 is just 4.58%. If we were to require, say, a 10% return, which is more reasonable for a growth stock, the fair price today would be $16.93, 38% lower than the current price.\nRisks\nHaving said all this, we also have to mention some particular challenges that a company like Palantir faces. The most significant of these would relate to how the company has to manage its image in a world where privacy is becoming \"taboo\".\nPalantir is a company that, on many levels, has a lot of power, which can be both a blessing and a curse. The company has to be very careful with its data to avoid any events that could damage its reputation, which it needs in order to survive. Think, for example, Edward Snowden, who before becoming one of the most wanted men in the world was working for Booz Allen. What would happen if the next whistleblower came from within Palantir's ranks?\nOn top of that, Palantir is also facing resistance from organizations abroad. For example, there is currently a campaign in the UK trying to stop Palantir fromworking with the NHS. It's understandable that some people may not want their medical data to be handled by a foreign company, even if it is from an allied country.\nUltimately, these are very particular challenges that Palantir faces. Its growth could be hampered if people or even the government start to think the company is \"too powerful\". Furthermore, if anything happened to damage the company's reputation, Palantir could be finished overnight. Of course, this is why the company invests so heavily in its workforce. But will it be enough?\nTakeaway\nIn conclusion, we believe Palantir is qualitatively a great company. They operate in a niche market with a lot of growth potential. On top of that, Palantir has one of the best technologies and workforces in the market right now, but this is not enough. Even with double-digit growth and assuming a steady path towards profitability, Palantir seems way too expensive today to provide investors with good returns. A great company doesn't always make a great investment, and we feel this is the case with Palantir.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":499,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":158298620,"gmtCreate":1625150031360,"gmtModify":1631891386632,"author":{"id":"3582441430299393","authorId":"3582441430299393","name":"TerranceYee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bad1cb6d60af593e8e18243a352e839e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582441430299393","idStr":"3582441430299393"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/158298620","repostId":"1199212665","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199212665","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625146084,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1199212665?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-01 21:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Expensive Tech Stocks to Buy in the Next Market Crash<blockquote>下一次市场崩盘时值得买入的3只昂贵科技股</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199212665","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Get ready to buy Snowflake and two other hot tech stocks if this frothy market collapses.","content":"<p>Many high-growth tech stocks have seen price pullbacks over the past few months, due to concerns about higher bond yields, inflation, and decelerating growth for companies that benefited from the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>由于担心债券收益率上升、通货膨胀以及受益于疫情的公司增长放缓，许多高增长科技股在过去几个月出现了价格回调。</blockquote></p><p> That sell-off created some buying opportunities -- but some of the sector's pricier names merely pulled back slightly, held onto their gains, or even rallied. That relative strength is admirable, but it's a bit frustrating for investors who don't want to pay the wrong price for the right company.</p><p><blockquote>这次抛售创造了一些买入机会，但该行业一些价格较高的股票只是小幅回调，保持涨幅，甚至上涨。这种相对实力令人钦佩，但对于那些不想为合适的公司支付错误价格的投资者来说，这有点令人沮丧。</blockquote></p><p> That's why I'm making a shopping list of expensive tech stocks which I'd eagerly buy during the next market crash. Let's take a look at three of those companies:<b>Snowflake</b>(NYSE:SNOW),<b>Twilio</b>(NYSE:TWLO), and&nbsp;<b>CrowdStrike</b>(NASDAQ:CRWD).</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么我列出了一份昂贵科技股的购物清单，这些股票是我在下一次市场崩盘时急切购买的。让我们来看看其中三家公司：<b>雪花</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：SNOW），<b>Twilio</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：TWLO），以及<b>CrowdStrike</b>（纳斯达克：CRWD）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fde232ce39d9cd52a01fd6ec018cae53\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Snowflake</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.雪花</b></blockquote></p><p> Snowflake was one of the hottest tech IPOs of 2020, thanks to its jaw-dropping growth rates and big investments from&nbsp;<b>Berkshire Hathaway</b>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>salesforce.com</b>.</p><p><blockquote>Snowflake是2020年最热门的科技IPO之一，这要归功于其令人瞠目结舌的增长率和来自<b>伯克希尔哈撒韦</b>和<b>salesforce.com</b>.</blockquote></p><p> Snowflake'scloud-baseddata warehouse pulls all of a company's data onto a single platform, where it can then be fed into third-party data visualization apps. Its service breaks down the silos between different departments and computing platforms, which makes it easier for large companies to make data-driven decisions.</p><p><blockquote>Snowflake基于云的数据仓库将公司的所有数据拉到一个平台上，然后可以将其输入第三方数据可视化应用程序。它的服务打破了不同部门和计算平台之间的孤岛，使大公司更容易做出数据驱动的决策。</blockquote></p><p> Snowflake's number of customers jumped 73% to 4,139 in fiscal 2021 (which ended this January), including 186 of the Fortune 500 companies. Its revenue surged 124% to $592 million, as its net retention rate -- which gauges its year-over-year revenue growth per existing customer -- hit 165%.</p><p><blockquote>Snowflake的客户数量在2021财年（截至今年1月）跃升73%至4,139家，其中包括186家财富500强公司。其收入飙升124%，达到5.92亿美元，净保留率（衡量每个现有客户的收入同比增长）达到165%。</blockquote></p><p> That growth continued in the first quarter of 2022. Its revenue rose 110% year over year to $228.9 million, its number of customers increased 67% to 4,532, and it achieved a net retention rate of 168%.</p><p><blockquote>这种增长在2022年第一季度仍在继续。其收入同比增长110%至2.289亿美元，客户数量增长67%至4,532人，净保留率达到168%。</blockquote></p><p> But Snowflake isn't profitable yet. ItsGAAPnet loss widened from $348.5 million in fiscal 2020 to $539.1 million in fiscal 2021, and<i>more than doubled</i>from $93.6 million to $203.2 million in the first quarter of 2022. It's also unprofitable on a non-GAAP basis, which excludes its stock-based compensation expenses.</p><p><blockquote>但Snowflake尚未盈利。其GAAP净亏损从2020财年的3.485亿美元扩大至2021财年的5.391亿美元，并且<i>翻了一倍多</i>2022年第一季度从9360万美元增至2.032亿美元。在非公认会计准则的基础上，它也是无利可图的，这不包括其股票薪酬费用。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts expect Snowflake's revenue to rise 88% this year, with a narrower loss. However, its stock still trades at 65 times this year's sales -- which indicates there's still far too much growth baked into the stock. But if Snowflake gets cut in half in a crash, I'd considerstarting a big position.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计Snowflake今年的收入将增长88%，亏损将收窄。然而，其股价仍是今年销售额的65倍，这表明该股仍有太多增长。但如果雪花在崩盘中被切成两半，我会考虑建立一个大头寸。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Twilio</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.Twilio</b></blockquote></p><p> Twilio's cloud platform processes text messages, calls, and videos within apps. For example, it helps&nbsp;<b>Lyft</b>'s passengers contact their drivers, and&nbsp;<b>Airbnb</b>'s guests reach their hosts.</p><p><blockquote>Twilio的云平台在应用程序中处理短信、评级和视频。例如，它有助于<b>Lyft</b>的乘客联系他们的司机，并且<b>爱彼迎</b>的客人到达他们的主人。</blockquote></p><p> In the past, developers built those tools from scratch, which was generally time-consuming, buggy, and difficult to scale. However, developers can now outsource those features to Twilio's cloud service by simply adding a few lines of code to their apps.</p><p><blockquote>过去，开发人员从头开始构建这些工具，这通常很耗时、有缺陷且难以扩展。然而，开发人员现在只需在他们的应用程序中添加几行代码，就可以将这些功能外包给Twilio的云服务。</blockquote></p><p> Twilio's revenue rose 55% to $1.76 billion in 2020. Its net expansion rate, which is comparable to Snowflake's net retention rate, reached 137%. In the first quarter of 2021, its revenue jumped 62% year over year to $590 million as it integrated its recent purchase of the customer data firm Segment.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，Twilio的收入增长了55%，达到17.6亿美元。其净扩张率与Snowflake的净留存率相当，达到了137%。2021年第一季度，由于整合了最近收购的客户数据公司部门，其收入同比增长62%至5.9亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Twilio remains unprofitable on a GAAP basis, but its non-GAAP net income rose 62% to $35.9 million in 2020. In the first quarter of 2021, its non-GAAP net income rose another 15% to $9.6 million.</p><p><blockquote>按GAAP计算，Twilio仍未盈利，但其非GAAP净利润在2020年增长了62%，达到3590万美元。2021年第一季度，其非GAAP净利润再增长15%至960万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts expect its revenue to rise 44% this year, but for its non-GAAP earnings to dip into the red again amid higher investments and rising A2P (application-to-person) fees, which are now charged by carriers whenever an app accesses an SMS network.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计其今年收入将增长44%，但由于投资增加和A2P（应用到个人）费用上涨，其非GAAP收益将再次出现亏损，现在每当应用程序访问短信网络时，运营商都会收取这些费用。</blockquote></p><p> That near-term outlook doesn't look great for a stock that trades at nearly 30 times this year's sales. However, I still think Twilio has great growth potential, and I'd definitely buy its stock at a lower price.</p><p><blockquote>对于一只交易价格是今年销售额近30倍的股票来说，近期前景看起来并不乐观。不过，我仍然认为Twilio具有巨大的增长潜力，我肯定会以较低的价格购买其股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. CrowdStrike</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.CrowdStrike</b></blockquote></p><p> CrowdStrike is a cybersecurity company that differs from its industry peers in one major way. Most cybersecurity companies install on-site appliances to support their services, which can be expensive to maintain and difficult to scale as an organization expands. CrowdStrike eliminates those appliances by offering its end-to-end security platform as a cloud-based service.</p><p><blockquote>CrowdStrike是一家网络安全公司，在一个主要方面不同于行业同行。大多数网络安全公司安装现场设备来支持其服务，这些设备的维护成本可能很高，并且随着组织的扩展难以扩展。CrowdStrike通过提供端到端安全平台作为基于云的服务来消除这些设备。</blockquote></p><p> CrowdStrike's growth clearly reflects its disruptive potential. Its revenue rose 82% to $874.4 million in fiscal 2021 (which ended this January), its number of subscription customers increased 82% to 9,896, and its net retention rate stayed above 120%.</p><p><blockquote>CrowdStrike的增长清楚地反映了其颠覆性的潜力。其2021财年（截至今年1月）收入增长82%至8.744亿美元，订阅客户数量增长82%至9,896人，净留存率保持在120%以上。</blockquote></p><p> In the first quarter of fiscal 2022, its revenue rose 70% year over year to $302.8 million, its subscriber base expanded 82% year over year to 11,420, and it kept its retention rate above 120%.</p><p><blockquote>2022财年第一季度，其收入同比增长70%至3.028亿美元，用户群同比增长82%至11,420人，留存率保持在120%以上。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> CrowdStrike also turned profitable on a non-GAAP basis in 2021, with a net profit of $62.6 million. Its non-GAAP net income rose more than fivefold year over year to $23.3 million in the first quarter of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>CrowdStrike也在2021年实现了非GAAP盈利，净利润为6260万美元。2022年第一季度，其非GAAP净利润同比增长五倍多，达到2330万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Those&nbsp;numbers are impressive, but CrowdStrike still trades at about 350 times forward earnings and more than 40 times this year's sales. Therefore, this is another stock I won't buy unless the market crashes.</p><p><blockquote>这些数字令人印象深刻，但CrowdStrike的市盈率仍约为350倍，是今年销售额的40多倍。因此，这是另一只我不会买的股票，除非市场崩盘。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Expensive Tech Stocks to Buy in the Next Market Crash<blockquote>下一次市场崩盘时值得买入的3只昂贵科技股</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Expensive Tech Stocks to Buy in the Next Market Crash<blockquote>下一次市场崩盘时值得买入的3只昂贵科技股</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-01 21:28</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Many high-growth tech stocks have seen price pullbacks over the past few months, due to concerns about higher bond yields, inflation, and decelerating growth for companies that benefited from the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>由于担心债券收益率上升、通货膨胀以及受益于疫情的公司增长放缓，许多高增长科技股在过去几个月出现了价格回调。</blockquote></p><p> That sell-off created some buying opportunities -- but some of the sector's pricier names merely pulled back slightly, held onto their gains, or even rallied. That relative strength is admirable, but it's a bit frustrating for investors who don't want to pay the wrong price for the right company.</p><p><blockquote>这次抛售创造了一些买入机会，但该行业一些价格较高的股票只是小幅回调，保持涨幅，甚至上涨。这种相对实力令人钦佩，但对于那些不想为合适的公司支付错误价格的投资者来说，这有点令人沮丧。</blockquote></p><p> That's why I'm making a shopping list of expensive tech stocks which I'd eagerly buy during the next market crash. Let's take a look at three of those companies:<b>Snowflake</b>(NYSE:SNOW),<b>Twilio</b>(NYSE:TWLO), and&nbsp;<b>CrowdStrike</b>(NASDAQ:CRWD).</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么我列出了一份昂贵科技股的购物清单，这些股票是我在下一次市场崩盘时急切购买的。让我们来看看其中三家公司：<b>雪花</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：SNOW），<b>Twilio</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：TWLO），以及<b>CrowdStrike</b>（纳斯达克：CRWD）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fde232ce39d9cd52a01fd6ec018cae53\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Snowflake</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.雪花</b></blockquote></p><p> Snowflake was one of the hottest tech IPOs of 2020, thanks to its jaw-dropping growth rates and big investments from&nbsp;<b>Berkshire Hathaway</b>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>salesforce.com</b>.</p><p><blockquote>Snowflake是2020年最热门的科技IPO之一，这要归功于其令人瞠目结舌的增长率和来自<b>伯克希尔哈撒韦</b>和<b>salesforce.com</b>.</blockquote></p><p> Snowflake'scloud-baseddata warehouse pulls all of a company's data onto a single platform, where it can then be fed into third-party data visualization apps. Its service breaks down the silos between different departments and computing platforms, which makes it easier for large companies to make data-driven decisions.</p><p><blockquote>Snowflake基于云的数据仓库将公司的所有数据拉到一个平台上，然后可以将其输入第三方数据可视化应用程序。它的服务打破了不同部门和计算平台之间的孤岛，使大公司更容易做出数据驱动的决策。</blockquote></p><p> Snowflake's number of customers jumped 73% to 4,139 in fiscal 2021 (which ended this January), including 186 of the Fortune 500 companies. Its revenue surged 124% to $592 million, as its net retention rate -- which gauges its year-over-year revenue growth per existing customer -- hit 165%.</p><p><blockquote>Snowflake的客户数量在2021财年（截至今年1月）跃升73%至4,139家，其中包括186家财富500强公司。其收入飙升124%，达到5.92亿美元，净保留率（衡量每个现有客户的收入同比增长）达到165%。</blockquote></p><p> That growth continued in the first quarter of 2022. Its revenue rose 110% year over year to $228.9 million, its number of customers increased 67% to 4,532, and it achieved a net retention rate of 168%.</p><p><blockquote>这种增长在2022年第一季度仍在继续。其收入同比增长110%至2.289亿美元，客户数量增长67%至4,532人，净保留率达到168%。</blockquote></p><p> But Snowflake isn't profitable yet. ItsGAAPnet loss widened from $348.5 million in fiscal 2020 to $539.1 million in fiscal 2021, and<i>more than doubled</i>from $93.6 million to $203.2 million in the first quarter of 2022. It's also unprofitable on a non-GAAP basis, which excludes its stock-based compensation expenses.</p><p><blockquote>但Snowflake尚未盈利。其GAAP净亏损从2020财年的3.485亿美元扩大至2021财年的5.391亿美元，并且<i>翻了一倍多</i>2022年第一季度从9360万美元增至2.032亿美元。在非公认会计准则的基础上，它也是无利可图的，这不包括其股票薪酬费用。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts expect Snowflake's revenue to rise 88% this year, with a narrower loss. However, its stock still trades at 65 times this year's sales -- which indicates there's still far too much growth baked into the stock. But if Snowflake gets cut in half in a crash, I'd considerstarting a big position.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计Snowflake今年的收入将增长88%，亏损将收窄。然而，其股价仍是今年销售额的65倍，这表明该股仍有太多增长。但如果雪花在崩盘中被切成两半，我会考虑建立一个大头寸。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Twilio</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.Twilio</b></blockquote></p><p> Twilio's cloud platform processes text messages, calls, and videos within apps. For example, it helps&nbsp;<b>Lyft</b>'s passengers contact their drivers, and&nbsp;<b>Airbnb</b>'s guests reach their hosts.</p><p><blockquote>Twilio的云平台在应用程序中处理短信、评级和视频。例如，它有助于<b>Lyft</b>的乘客联系他们的司机，并且<b>爱彼迎</b>的客人到达他们的主人。</blockquote></p><p> In the past, developers built those tools from scratch, which was generally time-consuming, buggy, and difficult to scale. However, developers can now outsource those features to Twilio's cloud service by simply adding a few lines of code to their apps.</p><p><blockquote>过去，开发人员从头开始构建这些工具，这通常很耗时、有缺陷且难以扩展。然而，开发人员现在只需在他们的应用程序中添加几行代码，就可以将这些功能外包给Twilio的云服务。</blockquote></p><p> Twilio's revenue rose 55% to $1.76 billion in 2020. Its net expansion rate, which is comparable to Snowflake's net retention rate, reached 137%. In the first quarter of 2021, its revenue jumped 62% year over year to $590 million as it integrated its recent purchase of the customer data firm Segment.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，Twilio的收入增长了55%，达到17.6亿美元。其净扩张率与Snowflake的净留存率相当，达到了137%。2021年第一季度，由于整合了最近收购的客户数据公司部门，其收入同比增长62%至5.9亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Twilio remains unprofitable on a GAAP basis, but its non-GAAP net income rose 62% to $35.9 million in 2020. In the first quarter of 2021, its non-GAAP net income rose another 15% to $9.6 million.</p><p><blockquote>按GAAP计算，Twilio仍未盈利，但其非GAAP净利润在2020年增长了62%，达到3590万美元。2021年第一季度，其非GAAP净利润再增长15%至960万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts expect its revenue to rise 44% this year, but for its non-GAAP earnings to dip into the red again amid higher investments and rising A2P (application-to-person) fees, which are now charged by carriers whenever an app accesses an SMS network.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计其今年收入将增长44%，但由于投资增加和A2P（应用到个人）费用上涨，其非GAAP收益将再次出现亏损，现在每当应用程序访问短信网络时，运营商都会收取这些费用。</blockquote></p><p> That near-term outlook doesn't look great for a stock that trades at nearly 30 times this year's sales. However, I still think Twilio has great growth potential, and I'd definitely buy its stock at a lower price.</p><p><blockquote>对于一只交易价格是今年销售额近30倍的股票来说，近期前景看起来并不乐观。不过，我仍然认为Twilio具有巨大的增长潜力，我肯定会以较低的价格购买其股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. CrowdStrike</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.CrowdStrike</b></blockquote></p><p> CrowdStrike is a cybersecurity company that differs from its industry peers in one major way. Most cybersecurity companies install on-site appliances to support their services, which can be expensive to maintain and difficult to scale as an organization expands. CrowdStrike eliminates those appliances by offering its end-to-end security platform as a cloud-based service.</p><p><blockquote>CrowdStrike是一家网络安全公司，在一个主要方面不同于行业同行。大多数网络安全公司安装现场设备来支持其服务，这些设备的维护成本可能很高，并且随着组织的扩展难以扩展。CrowdStrike通过提供端到端安全平台作为基于云的服务来消除这些设备。</blockquote></p><p> CrowdStrike's growth clearly reflects its disruptive potential. Its revenue rose 82% to $874.4 million in fiscal 2021 (which ended this January), its number of subscription customers increased 82% to 9,896, and its net retention rate stayed above 120%.</p><p><blockquote>CrowdStrike的增长清楚地反映了其颠覆性的潜力。其2021财年（截至今年1月）收入增长82%至8.744亿美元，订阅客户数量增长82%至9,896人，净留存率保持在120%以上。</blockquote></p><p> In the first quarter of fiscal 2022, its revenue rose 70% year over year to $302.8 million, its subscriber base expanded 82% year over year to 11,420, and it kept its retention rate above 120%.</p><p><blockquote>2022财年第一季度，其收入同比增长70%至3.028亿美元，用户群同比增长82%至11,420人，留存率保持在120%以上。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> CrowdStrike also turned profitable on a non-GAAP basis in 2021, with a net profit of $62.6 million. Its non-GAAP net income rose more than fivefold year over year to $23.3 million in the first quarter of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>CrowdStrike也在2021年实现了非GAAP盈利，净利润为6260万美元。2022年第一季度，其非GAAP净利润同比增长五倍多，达到2330万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Those&nbsp;numbers are impressive, but CrowdStrike still trades at about 350 times forward earnings and more than 40 times this year's sales. Therefore, this is another stock I won't buy unless the market crashes.</p><p><blockquote>这些数字令人印象深刻，但CrowdStrike的市盈率仍约为350倍，是今年销售额的40多倍。因此，这是另一只我不会买的股票，除非市场崩盘。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/01/expensive-tech-stocks-to-buy-in-next-market-crash/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CRWD":"CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.","SNOW":"Snowflake","TWLO":"Twilio Inc"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/01/expensive-tech-stocks-to-buy-in-next-market-crash/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199212665","content_text":"Many high-growth tech stocks have seen price pullbacks over the past few months, due to concerns about higher bond yields, inflation, and decelerating growth for companies that benefited from the pandemic.\nThat sell-off created some buying opportunities -- but some of the sector's pricier names merely pulled back slightly, held onto their gains, or even rallied. That relative strength is admirable, but it's a bit frustrating for investors who don't want to pay the wrong price for the right company.\nThat's why I'm making a shopping list of expensive tech stocks which I'd eagerly buy during the next market crash. Let's take a look at three of those companies:Snowflake(NYSE:SNOW),Twilio(NYSE:TWLO), and CrowdStrike(NASDAQ:CRWD).\nIMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.\n1. Snowflake\nSnowflake was one of the hottest tech IPOs of 2020, thanks to its jaw-dropping growth rates and big investments from Berkshire Hathaway and salesforce.com.\nSnowflake'scloud-baseddata warehouse pulls all of a company's data onto a single platform, where it can then be fed into third-party data visualization apps. Its service breaks down the silos between different departments and computing platforms, which makes it easier for large companies to make data-driven decisions.\nSnowflake's number of customers jumped 73% to 4,139 in fiscal 2021 (which ended this January), including 186 of the Fortune 500 companies. Its revenue surged 124% to $592 million, as its net retention rate -- which gauges its year-over-year revenue growth per existing customer -- hit 165%.\nThat growth continued in the first quarter of 2022. Its revenue rose 110% year over year to $228.9 million, its number of customers increased 67% to 4,532, and it achieved a net retention rate of 168%.\nBut Snowflake isn't profitable yet. ItsGAAPnet loss widened from $348.5 million in fiscal 2020 to $539.1 million in fiscal 2021, andmore than doubledfrom $93.6 million to $203.2 million in the first quarter of 2022. It's also unprofitable on a non-GAAP basis, which excludes its stock-based compensation expenses.\nAnalysts expect Snowflake's revenue to rise 88% this year, with a narrower loss. However, its stock still trades at 65 times this year's sales -- which indicates there's still far too much growth baked into the stock. But if Snowflake gets cut in half in a crash, I'd considerstarting a big position.\n2. Twilio\nTwilio's cloud platform processes text messages, calls, and videos within apps. For example, it helps Lyft's passengers contact their drivers, and Airbnb's guests reach their hosts.\nIn the past, developers built those tools from scratch, which was generally time-consuming, buggy, and difficult to scale. However, developers can now outsource those features to Twilio's cloud service by simply adding a few lines of code to their apps.\nTwilio's revenue rose 55% to $1.76 billion in 2020. Its net expansion rate, which is comparable to Snowflake's net retention rate, reached 137%. In the first quarter of 2021, its revenue jumped 62% year over year to $590 million as it integrated its recent purchase of the customer data firm Segment.\nTwilio remains unprofitable on a GAAP basis, but its non-GAAP net income rose 62% to $35.9 million in 2020. In the first quarter of 2021, its non-GAAP net income rose another 15% to $9.6 million.\nAnalysts expect its revenue to rise 44% this year, but for its non-GAAP earnings to dip into the red again amid higher investments and rising A2P (application-to-person) fees, which are now charged by carriers whenever an app accesses an SMS network.\nThat near-term outlook doesn't look great for a stock that trades at nearly 30 times this year's sales. However, I still think Twilio has great growth potential, and I'd definitely buy its stock at a lower price.\n3. CrowdStrike\nCrowdStrike is a cybersecurity company that differs from its industry peers in one major way. Most cybersecurity companies install on-site appliances to support their services, which can be expensive to maintain and difficult to scale as an organization expands. CrowdStrike eliminates those appliances by offering its end-to-end security platform as a cloud-based service.\nCrowdStrike's growth clearly reflects its disruptive potential. Its revenue rose 82% to $874.4 million in fiscal 2021 (which ended this January), its number of subscription customers increased 82% to 9,896, and its net retention rate stayed above 120%.\nIn the first quarter of fiscal 2022, its revenue rose 70% year over year to $302.8 million, its subscriber base expanded 82% year over year to 11,420, and it kept its retention rate above 120%.\nCrowdStrike also turned profitable on a non-GAAP basis in 2021, with a net profit of $62.6 million. Its non-GAAP net income rose more than fivefold year over year to $23.3 million in the first quarter of 2022.\nThose numbers are impressive, but CrowdStrike still trades at about 350 times forward earnings and more than 40 times this year's sales. 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please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/111293169","repostId":"1115876867","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":450,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":178006775,"gmtCreate":1626769830397,"gmtModify":1631887979291,"author":{"id":"3582441430299393","authorId":"3582441430299393","name":"TerranceYee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bad1cb6d60af593e8e18243a352e839e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582441430299393","authorIdStr":"3582441430299393"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"k","listText":"k","text":"k","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/178006775","repostId":"1134513535","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1134513535","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626767558,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1134513535?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-20 15:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Evergrande Stock Sinks Below Liquidation Level<blockquote>恒大股价跌破平仓位</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134513535","media":"zerohedge","summary":"The steepening rout in China Evergrande’s shares have sent them far below the value of its assets, s","content":"<p>The&nbsp;steepening rout&nbsp;in China Evergrande’s shares have sent them far below the value of its assets, showing how pessimistic investors are about the developer’s ability to generate cash.</p><p><blockquote>中国恒大股价的急剧下跌使其远低于其资产价值，这表明投资者对该开发商产生现金的能力有多么悲观。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Evergrande shares trade at just 62% of book value following Monday’s plunge</b>, the lowest-ever valuation in data compiled by Bloomberg going back to its IPO in 2009. The wide deviation from its market value suggests shareholders are pricing in a significant decline in the assets’ earnings power. In terms of dollar amounts, its shares have lost $15 billion in value since this year’s January high.</p><p><blockquote><b>周一暴跌后，恒大股价仅为账面价值的62%</b>这是彭博社编制的自2009年IPO以来的最低估值。与其市值的大幅偏离表明股东正在消化该资产盈利能力的大幅下降。就美元金额而言，自今年1月高点以来，其股价已损失150亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The collapse in the valuation of the shares is a problem for a heavily indebted company with narrowing options for raising funds. It’s not just its own shares: subsidiary Evergrande Property Services has lost about $17 billion in value since its February high, while Evergrande New Energy Vehicle is down more than $60 billion in the period. Evergrande controls more than 60% of both firms. The value of Hengten Networks -- a Hong Kong-listed internet services provider in which Evergrande has a 38% stake -- has dropped about $15 billion.</p><p><blockquote>对于一家负债累累、融资选择不断缩小的公司来说，股价暴跌是一个问题。这不仅仅是它自己的股票：子公司恒大物业服务自2月份高点以来已损失约170亿美元，而恒大新能源汽车在此期间下跌了超过600亿美元。恒大控制着两家公司60%以上的股份。恒腾网络是一家在香港上市的互联网服务提供商，恒大持有该公司38%的股份，其价值已下跌约150亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The company’s access to freely available cash is also shrinking. After the shares plunged 16% on Monday following the&nbsp;freezing&nbsp;of a bank deposit, a city in Hunan province&nbsp;halted&nbsp;sales at two of the company’s residential projects, alleging the developer didn’t properly handle funds. The suspension will last until Oct. 13 and Evergrande can’t use funds currently deposited in supervised bank accounts, according to a statement.</p><p><blockquote>该公司获得免费现金的机会也在减少。周一，由于银行存款被冻结，该公司股价暴跌16%，湖南省一个城市停止了该公司两个住宅项目的销售，指控开发商没有妥善处理资金。一份声明称，暂停将持续到10月13日，恒大不能使用目前存入受监管银行账户的资金。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc7bc1ac90d6e5cc0474f860f876f292\" tg-width=\"1223\" tg-height=\"668\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Evergrande will discuss plans for a special dividend to its shareholders at a board meeting on July 27. The developer is unlikely to fund such a plan with cash, according to CCB International analysts. They predict the most likely outcome would involve a share distribution in one of its units, namely Evergrande New Energy Vehicle, but the value of those shares is fast evaporating.</p><p><blockquote>恒大将在7月27日的董事会会议上讨论向股东派发特别股息的计划。建银国际分析师表示，开发商不太可能用现金为此类计划提供资金。他们预测，最有可能的结果是对其子公司之一恒大新能源汽车进行股份分配，但这些股份的价值正在迅速蒸发。</blockquote></p><p> The company’s bonds are also pricing in a bleak outcome for the developer. Evergrande’s 8.75% dollar bond due 2025 trades at 58.5 cents, Bloomberg-compiled prices show. That’s down from 82.9 cents at the beginning of the year. The company hasn’t sold a single dollar bond in more than 17 months.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的债券也反映了开发商的惨淡结果。彭博社编制的价格显示，恒大2025年到期的8.75%美元债券交易价格为58.5美分。这比年初的82.9美分有所下降。该公司已经超过17个月没有出售过一只美元债券了。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Evergrande Stock Sinks Below Liquidation Level<blockquote>恒大股价跌破平仓位</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEvergrande Stock Sinks Below Liquidation Level<blockquote>恒大股价跌破平仓位</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-20 15:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The&nbsp;steepening rout&nbsp;in China Evergrande’s shares have sent them far below the value of its assets, showing how pessimistic investors are about the developer’s ability to generate cash.</p><p><blockquote>中国恒大股价的急剧下跌使其远低于其资产价值，这表明投资者对该开发商产生现金的能力有多么悲观。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Evergrande shares trade at just 62% of book value following Monday’s plunge</b>, the lowest-ever valuation in data compiled by Bloomberg going back to its IPO in 2009. The wide deviation from its market value suggests shareholders are pricing in a significant decline in the assets’ earnings power. In terms of dollar amounts, its shares have lost $15 billion in value since this year’s January high.</p><p><blockquote><b>周一暴跌后，恒大股价仅为账面价值的62%</b>这是彭博社编制的自2009年IPO以来的最低估值。与其市值的大幅偏离表明股东正在消化该资产盈利能力的大幅下降。就美元金额而言，自今年1月高点以来，其股价已损失150亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The collapse in the valuation of the shares is a problem for a heavily indebted company with narrowing options for raising funds. It’s not just its own shares: subsidiary Evergrande Property Services has lost about $17 billion in value since its February high, while Evergrande New Energy Vehicle is down more than $60 billion in the period. Evergrande controls more than 60% of both firms. The value of Hengten Networks -- a Hong Kong-listed internet services provider in which Evergrande has a 38% stake -- has dropped about $15 billion.</p><p><blockquote>对于一家负债累累、融资选择不断缩小的公司来说，股价暴跌是一个问题。这不仅仅是它自己的股票：子公司恒大物业服务自2月份高点以来已损失约170亿美元，而恒大新能源汽车在此期间下跌了超过600亿美元。恒大控制着两家公司60%以上的股份。恒腾网络是一家在香港上市的互联网服务提供商，恒大持有该公司38%的股份，其价值已下跌约150亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The company’s access to freely available cash is also shrinking. After the shares plunged 16% on Monday following the&nbsp;freezing&nbsp;of a bank deposit, a city in Hunan province&nbsp;halted&nbsp;sales at two of the company’s residential projects, alleging the developer didn’t properly handle funds. The suspension will last until Oct. 13 and Evergrande can’t use funds currently deposited in supervised bank accounts, according to a statement.</p><p><blockquote>该公司获得免费现金的机会也在减少。周一，由于银行存款被冻结，该公司股价暴跌16%，湖南省一个城市停止了该公司两个住宅项目的销售，指控开发商没有妥善处理资金。一份声明称，暂停将持续到10月13日，恒大不能使用目前存入受监管银行账户的资金。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc7bc1ac90d6e5cc0474f860f876f292\" tg-width=\"1223\" tg-height=\"668\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Evergrande will discuss plans for a special dividend to its shareholders at a board meeting on July 27. The developer is unlikely to fund such a plan with cash, according to CCB International analysts. They predict the most likely outcome would involve a share distribution in one of its units, namely Evergrande New Energy Vehicle, but the value of those shares is fast evaporating.</p><p><blockquote>恒大将在7月27日的董事会会议上讨论向股东派发特别股息的计划。建银国际分析师表示，开发商不太可能用现金为此类计划提供资金。他们预测，最有可能的结果是对其子公司之一恒大新能源汽车进行股份分配，但这些股份的价值正在迅速蒸发。</blockquote></p><p> The company’s bonds are also pricing in a bleak outcome for the developer. Evergrande’s 8.75% dollar bond due 2025 trades at 58.5 cents, Bloomberg-compiled prices show. That’s down from 82.9 cents at the beginning of the year. The company hasn’t sold a single dollar bond in more than 17 months.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的债券也反映了开发商的惨淡结果。彭博社编制的价格显示，恒大2025年到期的8.75%美元债券交易价格为58.5美分。这比年初的82.9美分有所下降。该公司已经超过17个月没有出售过一只美元债券了。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/evergrande-stock-sinks-below-liquidation-level\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"03333":"中国恒大"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/evergrande-stock-sinks-below-liquidation-level","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1134513535","content_text":"The steepening rout in China Evergrande’s shares have sent them far below the value of its assets, showing how pessimistic investors are about the developer’s ability to generate cash.\nEvergrande shares trade at just 62% of book value following Monday’s plunge, the lowest-ever valuation in data compiled by Bloomberg going back to its IPO in 2009. The wide deviation from its market value suggests shareholders are pricing in a significant decline in the assets’ earnings power. In terms of dollar amounts, its shares have lost $15 billion in value since this year’s January high.\nThe collapse in the valuation of the shares is a problem for a heavily indebted company with narrowing options for raising funds. It’s not just its own shares: subsidiary Evergrande Property Services has lost about $17 billion in value since its February high, while Evergrande New Energy Vehicle is down more than $60 billion in the period. Evergrande controls more than 60% of both firms. The value of Hengten Networks -- a Hong Kong-listed internet services provider in which Evergrande has a 38% stake -- has dropped about $15 billion.\nThe company’s access to freely available cash is also shrinking. After the shares plunged 16% on Monday following the freezing of a bank deposit, a city in Hunan province halted sales at two of the company’s residential projects, alleging the developer didn’t properly handle funds. The suspension will last until Oct. 13 and Evergrande can’t use funds currently deposited in supervised bank accounts, according to a statement.\nEvergrande will discuss plans for a special dividend to its shareholders at a board meeting on July 27. The developer is unlikely to fund such a plan with cash, according to CCB International analysts. They predict the most likely outcome would involve a share distribution in one of its units, namely Evergrande New Energy Vehicle, but the value of those shares is fast evaporating.\nThe company’s bonds are also pricing in a bleak outcome for the developer. Evergrande’s 8.75% dollar bond due 2025 trades at 58.5 cents, Bloomberg-compiled prices show. That’s down from 82.9 cents at the beginning of the year. The company hasn’t sold a single dollar bond in more than 17 months.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"EGRNY":0.9,"03333":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1816,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}