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2021-11-24

$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$ should I sell or hold? I am so devastated

2021-12-15

$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$😱😭😭😭

2021-04-27

Hi do comment and like thanks

Tesla posts record net income of $438 million, revenue surges by 74%<blockquote>特斯拉净利润创纪录4.38亿美元营收暴增74%</blockquote>

2021-07-20

$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$ should I cut lost or HODL

2021-05-12

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New Outbreaks Prompt Return to Restrictions in Taiwan, Semiconductor Stocks Fell Today<blockquote>新发疫情促使台湾恢复限制措施半导体股今日下跌</blockquote>

2021-07-19

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Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be "Hotter But Shorter" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：本轮周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote>

2021-05-31

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抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-05-01

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抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-04-29

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抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-05-25

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Tesla shares rose nearly 1%,after setting up China site to store data locally<blockquote>特斯拉股价上涨近1%，此前设立中国站点在本地存储数据</blockquote>

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I am so devastated","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1749be341ddbb2c89f14d0a842ad370","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":17,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/875792179","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6052,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3567677730367093","authorId":"3567677730367093","name":"木火生辉","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4b04f3b4948890d0545f77067f44cae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3567677730367093","authorIdStr":"3567677730367093"},"content":"这种时候当然是持有，因为已经没有出售的必要了，然后以后万一涨起来，会各种后悔。我均价跟你差不多，我diamond hand。","text":"这种时候当然是持有，因为已经没有出售的必要了，然后以后万一涨起来，会各种后悔。我均价跟你差不多，我diamond hand。","html":"这种时候当然是持有，因为已经没有出售的必要了，然后以后万一涨起来，会各种后悔。我均价跟你差不多，我diamond 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and comment&nbsp;","listText":"Like and comment&nbsp;","text":"Like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171984254","repostId":"1146536243","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146536243","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626683272,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1146536243?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-19 16:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：本轮周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146536243","media":"zerohedge","summary":"This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","content":"<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为这个经济周期将是正常的、强劲的、短暂的。这些假设中的每一个都受到市场的激烈争论。每一项都是我们投资策略的关键。</blockquote></p><p> The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p><p><blockquote>关于周期“常态”的争论是不言自明的。毫不夸张地说，疫情造成了有记录以来最大幅度的产出下降。随后，在政策支持的帮助下，经济活动迅速回升。将这种情况视为独特的，不同于其他周期性经历的理由是，这种暴力的下跌和上涨从未允许传统的“重置”。</blockquote></p><p> But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p><p><blockquote>但市场中的“正常”是一个有趣的概念，记忆的粗糙边缘往往会随着时间的推移而变得光滑和抛光。2003-07年的周期以大萧条以来最大的银行和房地产危机结束。1992-2000年的周期以巨大的股票泡沫破裂、广泛的会计欺诈和难以言喻的悲剧而告终。“正常”周期在理论上很好，但在实践中更难。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p><p><blockquote>相反，让我们考虑一下为什么我们使用术语“周期”。经济和市场往往遵循周期性模式，这些模式往往会在市场表现中显现出来。我们关心的是那些模式，如果它们仍然适用，它们可以在不确定的地形中提供有用的指导。</blockquote></p><p> Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p><p><blockquote>去年的衰退之前是否存在收益率曲线倒挂、低波动性、低失业率、高消费者信心和股市广度收窄等周期后期条件？是的。由此产生的股票、信贷、收益率和收益率曲线的低谷是否符合市场和经济低点之间的通常节奏？他们做到了。随后反弹的领头羊是否是通常的早期周期赢家，如小型股和周期性股票、高收益信贷和工业金属？他们是。</blockquote></p><p> If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are.&nbsp;If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should&nbsp;<i>continue</i>&nbsp;to do so.</p><p><blockquote>如果它像鸭子一样走路，像鸭子一样嘎嘎叫，我们认为这是一个正常的循环。或者这些事情实际上是正常的。如果到目前为止已经发生了很多“正常”的循环行为，那么它应该<i>继续</i>这样做。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see&nbsp;The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，这与市场复苏时的表现模式有关。随着复苏的推进，这些模式应该会发生变化。正如我的同事迈克尔·威尔逊所指出的，我们认为我们正在进入周期中期市场，尽管距离经济活动低点仅16个月。我们看到当前状况与2004年上半年有许多相似之处，2004年上半年是大幅通货再膨胀反弹之后的周期中期。重要的是，尽管最近对增长感到担忧，但我们认为全球复苏将继续推进（见增长恐慌周年纪念，2021年7月11日）。</blockquote></p><p> Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p><p><blockquote>因为人们总能找到适合他们特定周期观点的指标，所以我们长期以来一直是综合指数的粉丝。这就是我们的“周期模型”，它结合了美国宏观、信贷周期和企业侵略性的十个指标，以衡量我们在市场周期中的位置。在2019年6月进入周期后期“低迷”和2020年4月进入周期早期“修复”后，该指数飙升。<b>它上升得如此之快，以至于已经过了下一个阶段（“复苏”），直接进入了“扩张”。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility:&nbsp;this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p><p><blockquote>这很不寻常。“扩张”意味着捕捉“比正常情况更好且正在改善”的条件，<b>自1980年以来，“低迷”结束后平均需要35个月才能实现这一目标</b>它的迅速到来表明，在巨大的政策支持下，经济正在迅速复苏。<b>这也暗示了另一种可能性：这个更热的周期可能会更短。</b>这是我们的论点，它体现在我们的定量测量中。</blockquote></p><p> All this has a number of implications:</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都有许多含义：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li>  <li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li>  <li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li>  <li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li> </ul> This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>周期越短，信贷相对于其他风险资产越差；信贷从“繁荣”中获得的收益较少，如果下一次衰退提前到来，信贷就会面临风险，并且随着企业信心的增强，信贷将面临更多的供应</b>在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国IG和HY Credit N1200万超额回报分别比平均水平差29个基点和161个基点。</li><li><b>在其中许多时期，尽管违约率仍然很低，但信贷表现却参差不齐</b>投资者应该尝试承担违约风险而不是利差风险：我们的信用策略师喜欢持有CDX HY 0-15%，并用CDX IG付款人利差进行对冲。</li><li><b>在股票方面，我们认为我们的模型支持投资组合更加平衡</b>我们看好美国和欧洲的医疗保健行业，因为该行业具有几个良好的因素：质量、低估值、高利差和低波动性。从全球来看，欧洲和日本的股市往往跑赢“中期周期”，我们认为它们可以再次这样做。</li><li><b>利率对复苏过于悲观。在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国10年期国债1200万奈拉回报率比平均水平低97个基点</b>.Guneet Dhingra和我们的美国利率策略团队在全球资产配置中转移了跑输大盘美国10年期国债，而我们反过来又转移了跑输大盘政府债券。</li></ul>这种循环是不寻常的。大多数“正常”周期都是。我们认为复苏是可持续的，而且更有可能“更热、更短”。出售国债并相信扩张。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：本轮周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：本轮周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-19 16:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为这个经济周期将是正常的、强劲的、短暂的。这些假设中的每一个都受到市场的激烈争论。每一项都是我们投资策略的关键。</blockquote></p><p> The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p><p><blockquote>关于周期“常态”的争论是不言自明的。毫不夸张地说，疫情造成了有记录以来最大幅度的产出下降。随后，在政策支持的帮助下，经济活动迅速回升。将这种情况视为独特的，不同于其他周期性经历的理由是，这种暴力的下跌和上涨从未允许传统的“重置”。</blockquote></p><p> But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p><p><blockquote>但市场中的“正常”是一个有趣的概念，记忆的粗糙边缘往往会随着时间的推移而变得光滑和抛光。2003-07年的周期以大萧条以来最大的银行和房地产危机结束。1992-2000年的周期以巨大的股票泡沫破裂、广泛的会计欺诈和难以言喻的悲剧而告终。“正常”周期在理论上很好，但在实践中更难。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p><p><blockquote>相反，让我们考虑一下为什么我们使用术语“周期”。经济和市场往往遵循周期性模式，这些模式往往会在市场表现中显现出来。我们关心的是那些模式，如果它们仍然适用，它们可以在不确定的地形中提供有用的指导。</blockquote></p><p> Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p><p><blockquote>去年的衰退之前是否存在收益率曲线倒挂、低波动性、低失业率、高消费者信心和股市广度收窄等周期后期条件？是的。由此产生的股票、信贷、收益率和收益率曲线的低谷是否符合市场和经济低点之间的通常节奏？他们做到了。随后反弹的领头羊是否是通常的早期周期赢家，如小型股和周期性股票、高收益信贷和工业金属？他们是。</blockquote></p><p> If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are.&nbsp;If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should&nbsp;<i>continue</i>&nbsp;to do so.</p><p><blockquote>如果它像鸭子一样走路，像鸭子一样嘎嘎叫，我们认为这是一个正常的循环。或者这些事情实际上是正常的。如果到目前为止已经发生了很多“正常”的循环行为，那么它应该<i>继续</i>这样做。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see&nbsp;The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，这与市场复苏时的表现模式有关。随着复苏的推进，这些模式应该会发生变化。正如我的同事迈克尔·威尔逊所指出的，我们认为我们正在进入周期中期市场，尽管距离经济活动低点仅16个月。我们看到当前状况与2004年上半年有许多相似之处，2004年上半年是大幅通货再膨胀反弹之后的周期中期。重要的是，尽管最近对增长感到担忧，但我们认为全球复苏将继续推进（见增长恐慌周年纪念，2021年7月11日）。</blockquote></p><p> Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p><p><blockquote>因为人们总能找到适合他们特定周期观点的指标，所以我们长期以来一直是综合指数的粉丝。这就是我们的“周期模型”，它结合了美国宏观、信贷周期和企业侵略性的十个指标，以衡量我们在市场周期中的位置。在2019年6月进入周期后期“低迷”和2020年4月进入周期早期“修复”后，该指数飙升。<b>它上升得如此之快，以至于已经过了下一个阶段（“复苏”），直接进入了“扩张”。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility:&nbsp;this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p><p><blockquote>这很不寻常。“扩张”意味着捕捉“比正常情况更好且正在改善”的条件，<b>自1980年以来，“低迷”结束后平均需要35个月才能实现这一目标</b>它的迅速到来表明，在巨大的政策支持下，经济正在迅速复苏。<b>这也暗示了另一种可能性：这个更热的周期可能会更短。</b>这是我们的论点，它体现在我们的定量测量中。</blockquote></p><p> All this has a number of implications:</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都有许多含义：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li>  <li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li>  <li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li>  <li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li> </ul> This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>周期越短，信贷相对于其他风险资产越差；信贷从“繁荣”中获得的收益较少，如果下一次衰退提前到来，信贷就会面临风险，并且随着企业信心的增强，信贷将面临更多的供应</b>在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国IG和HY Credit N1200万超额回报分别比平均水平差29个基点和161个基点。</li><li><b>在其中许多时期，尽管违约率仍然很低，但信贷表现却参差不齐</b>投资者应该尝试承担违约风险而不是利差风险：我们的信用策略师喜欢持有CDX HY 0-15%，并用CDX IG付款人利差进行对冲。</li><li><b>在股票方面，我们认为我们的模型支持投资组合更加平衡</b>我们看好美国和欧洲的医疗保健行业，因为该行业具有几个良好的因素：质量、低估值、高利差和低波动性。从全球来看，欧洲和日本的股市往往跑赢“中期周期”，我们认为它们可以再次这样做。</li><li><b>利率对复苏过于悲观。在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国10年期国债1200万奈拉回报率比平均水平低97个基点</b>.Guneet Dhingra和我们的美国利率策略团队在全球资产配置中转移了跑输大盘美国10年期国债，而我们反过来又转移了跑输大盘政府债券。</li></ul>这种循环是不寻常的。大多数“正常”周期都是。我们认为复苏是可持续的，而且更有可能“更热、更短”。出售国债并相信扩张。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146536243","content_text":"We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.\nThe debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.\nBut 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.\nInstead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.\nWas last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.\nIf it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are. If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should continue to do so.\nSpecifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).\nBecause one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.\nThisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.It also hints at another possibility: this hotter cycle could be shorter.This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.\nAll this has a number of implications:\n\nThe shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.\nIn many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.\nIn equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.\nInterest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.\n\nThis cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":172,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":144609412,"gmtCreate":1626277429436,"gmtModify":1633928308177,"author":{"id":"3582349066499647","authorId":"3582349066499647","name":"Huatcel","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6dc5ff854a615f554459ab92c2e24","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582349066499647","authorIdStr":"3582349066499647"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>&nbsp;gosh I can only HODL","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>&nbsp;gosh I can only HODL","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$ gosh I can only HODL","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b76bcf156bc70f67bbc98c579ff003d","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/144609412","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":465,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126399969,"gmtCreate":1624543733151,"gmtModify":1634004614536,"author":{"id":"3582349066499647","authorId":"3582349066499647","name":"Huatcel","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6dc5ff854a615f554459ab92c2e24","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582349066499647","authorIdStr":"3582349066499647"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow do comment&nbsp;","listText":"Wow do comment&nbsp;","text":"Wow do comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126399969","repostId":"1143833110","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143833110","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624542572,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1143833110?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-24 21:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Luminar rose 12% in morning trading<blockquote>Luminar早盘上涨12%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143833110","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(June 24) Luminar rose 12% in morning trading.\n\nLuminar Technologies CFO Tom Fennimore says the comp","content":"<p>(June 24)&nbsp;Luminar rose 12% in morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>（6月24日）Luminar早盘上涨12%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c35c21d86e92f27ee5143c2e0fc56192\" tg-width=\"658\" tg-height=\"438\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Luminar Technologies&nbsp;CFO&nbsp;Tom Fennimore says the company targets becoming profitable in 2024.</p><p><blockquote>Luminar Technologies首席财务官Tom Fennimore表示，该公司的目标是在2024年实现盈利。</blockquote></p><p> In an interview with<i>The Wall Street Journal</i>, Fennimore reiterates some of the company's full-year goals, weeks after sample versions of its lidar sensors went into production at a contract manufacturing facility in Mexico.</p><p><blockquote>在接受采访时<i>华尔街日报</i>在其激光雷达传感器的样品版本在墨西哥的一家合同制造工厂投入生产几周后，Fennimore重申了该公司的一些全年目标。</blockquote></p><p> Fennimore says the company aims to end the year with more cash than at the beginning. The company had $485.7M in liquidity as of December 31, 2020. As of March 31, liquidity stood at $610.3M.</p><p><blockquote>芬尼莫尔表示，该公司的目标是在年底拥有比年初更多的现金。截至2020年12月31日，该公司拥有4.857亿美元的流动性。截至3月31日，流动性为6.103亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The CFO says the extra cash will cushion the company against any potential \"bump on the road.\"</p><p><blockquote>首席财务官表示，额外的现金将缓冲公司免受任何潜在的“道路上的颠簸”。</blockquote></p><p> Luminar's existing automaker relationships include Volvo, Daimler, and SAIC.</p><p><blockquote>Luminar现有的汽车制造商关系包括沃尔沃、戴姆勒和上汽集团。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Luminar rose 12% in morning trading<blockquote>Luminar早盘上涨12%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLuminar rose 12% in morning trading<blockquote>Luminar早盘上涨12%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-24 21:49</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(June 24)&nbsp;Luminar rose 12% in morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>（6月24日）Luminar早盘上涨12%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c35c21d86e92f27ee5143c2e0fc56192\" tg-width=\"658\" tg-height=\"438\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Luminar Technologies&nbsp;CFO&nbsp;Tom Fennimore says the company targets becoming profitable in 2024.</p><p><blockquote>Luminar Technologies首席财务官Tom Fennimore表示，该公司的目标是在2024年实现盈利。</blockquote></p><p> In an interview with<i>The Wall Street Journal</i>, Fennimore reiterates some of the company's full-year goals, weeks after sample versions of its lidar sensors went into production at a contract manufacturing facility in Mexico.</p><p><blockquote>在接受采访时<i>华尔街日报</i>在其激光雷达传感器的样品版本在墨西哥的一家合同制造工厂投入生产几周后，Fennimore重申了该公司的一些全年目标。</blockquote></p><p> Fennimore says the company aims to end the year with more cash than at the beginning. The company had $485.7M in liquidity as of December 31, 2020. As of March 31, liquidity stood at $610.3M.</p><p><blockquote>芬尼莫尔表示，该公司的目标是在年底拥有比年初更多的现金。截至2020年12月31日，该公司拥有4.857亿美元的流动性。截至3月31日，流动性为6.103亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The CFO says the extra cash will cushion the company against any potential \"bump on the road.\"</p><p><blockquote>首席财务官表示，额外的现金将缓冲公司免受任何潜在的“道路上的颠簸”。</blockquote></p><p> Luminar's existing automaker relationships include Volvo, Daimler, and SAIC.</p><p><blockquote>Luminar现有的汽车制造商关系包括沃尔沃、戴姆勒和上汽集团。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143833110","content_text":"(June 24) Luminar rose 12% in morning trading.\n\nLuminar Technologies CFO Tom Fennimore says the company targets becoming profitable in 2024.\nIn an interview withThe Wall Street Journal, Fennimore reiterates some of the company's full-year goals, weeks after sample versions of its lidar sensors went into production at a contract manufacturing facility in Mexico.\nFennimore says the company aims to end the year with more cash than at the beginning. The company had $485.7M in liquidity as of December 31, 2020. As of March 31, liquidity stood at $610.3M.\nThe CFO says the extra cash will cushion the company against any potential \"bump on the road.\"\nLuminar's existing automaker relationships include Volvo, Daimler, and SAIC.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LAZR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":189,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166390356,"gmtCreate":1623990472975,"gmtModify":1634024482242,"author":{"id":"3582349066499647","authorId":"3582349066499647","name":"Huatcel","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6dc5ff854a615f554459ab92c2e24","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582349066499647","authorIdStr":"3582349066499647"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Weee","listText":"Weee","text":"Weee","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166390356","repostId":"1175693382","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175693382","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623978463,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175693382?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 09:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175693382","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.</li>  <li>The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.</li>  <li>The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.</li>  <li>We discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e63c77d4f3f3dc3d618e43044638bb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Yongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW可能是目前最被低估的成长型股票。</li><li>该公司在快速扩张的市场中的多种增长动力使其估值看起来更加令人困惑。</li><li>短期技术面可能会转向看涨，并出现潜在的双底价格走势信号。</li><li>我们讨论公司的多种增长动力，让投资者自行判断。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>戴永源/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Technical Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术论文</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7febf6ed056b0e3bc038321cdaad9b1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba’s&nbsp;stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.</p><p><blockquote>自11月20日早些时候蚂蚁金服IPO被取消以来，阿里巴巴-SW的股价已经经历了可怕的8个月，股价低迷，较高点下跌了34%。当考虑其长期上升趋势的健康状况时，很明显BABA具有相对较强的上升趋势偏差，并且通常在其关键的50W MA上得到良好支撑。过去4年中唯一一次失去关键的50W MA支撑位是在2018年熊市期间，当时BABA下跌了约40%，但仍在重要的200W MA上方得到良好支撑，我们通常认为这是“最后一道防线”。现在阿里巴巴再次面临类似的情况：下跌34%，失去了50W MA，但看起来在200W MA上方得到了很好的支撑。除此之外，价格行为分析中的一个有趣观察可能会导致价格行为交易者/投资者特别看涨：潜在的双底形成。阿里巴巴的价格似乎正在经历双底，就像2018年熊市期间一样，随后强劲反弹。因此，阿里巴巴目前的水平现在可能提供一个可能的技术买入切入点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的基本论点：快速扩大增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba49f5881708929949c30628eedc5d4\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"578\"><span>Annual GMV. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年度GMV。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6c4ed3e2402f5af52b2dea8bab411\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"517\"><span>Annual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年电子商务收入。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴的GMV在短短7年内从1.68 T元增长到7.49 T元，复合年增长率为23.8%，增速确实惊人。我们还看到其GMV增长转化为收入增长，其中国商业收入从76.7亿元增长至4736.8亿元，过去10年复合年增长率为51%。虽然其国际足迹仍然相当小，但在过去10年中，其复合年增长率仍为30.42%，这一点也不慢。</blockquote></p><p> Even though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计未来三年中国电子商务市场的增长速度将大幅放缓，复合年增长率为12.4%，从2021年的13.8 T元（相当于2.16 T美元）增长到2024年的19.6 T元（相当于3.06 T美元），但庞大的市场规模仍然为阿里巴巴及其最接近的竞争对手提供了巨大的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe2dee43f267e1d1399c68e3ca60f36\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>E-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国电子商务收入数据来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.</p><p><blockquote>当我们通过比较中国与美国电子商务市场的增长率和规模来更清晰地看待事物时，我们可以看到它们的规模和增长率的巨大差异，因为美国电子商务市场预计仅增长2021年至2025年的复合年增长率为4.67%，明显低于中国的12.4%。此外，美国市场的总收入预计也将达到约5630亿美元，是届时中国市场预计价值的18%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a8d0d8a6a2dcdf667a6f33c6c9771\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>Peers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行息税前利润率和预计息税前利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&amp;A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.</p><p><blockquote>尽管阿里巴巴-SW一直面临着来自快速增长的主要竞争对手京东（纳斯达克：JD）和拼多多（纳斯达克：PDD）的越来越大的竞争压力，但阿里巴巴已经在经营利润更高的业务（息税前利润和自由现金流），并且预计未来将继续实现强劲的盈利能力，这将使该公司具有巨大的灵活性，可以与京东和拼多多正面竞争，以扩大其领导地位。投资者可能会注意到，阿里巴巴的息税前利润率受到其SG&amp;A中反映的27.82亿美元一次性行政罚款的影响，因此其息税前利润率出现下行。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of&nbsp;823M AAC&nbsp;in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only&nbsp;100M AAC in Q2’C17&nbsp;as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>一项重要举措是该公司决定进一步投资社区市场，这是拼多多的主要电子商务战略，拼多多在最近一个季度总共获得了8.23亿AAC，而阿里巴巴的AAC为8.91亿。与阿里巴巴同期的4.66亿AAC相比，拼多多的AAC在2017年第二季度仅有1亿AAC，其AAC增长确实是惊人的。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.</p><p><blockquote>因此，增长势头肯定已经转向社区市场领域，阿里巴巴需要拿出重磅炸弹（它已经拥有）来与拼多多和京东争夺主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b83b69b08b1f4b11a26393c8e6eead5\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国社区团购的市场规模。数据来源：艾媒咨询</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计到2022年1020亿元的总市场规模仅占阿里巴巴21财年中国商业收入的21.5%左右，但阿里巴巴不能错过2019年至2022年3年内44.22%的预期快速复合年增长率。虽然市场还比较小，但BABA不能让这个市场目前的龙头：PDD在旁人无知的情况下，如此轻易地称霸并吞噬早期的高增长率。当然，阿里巴巴必须竞争并争取自己在这一领域的地位，并争取早期领导地位，以防止拼多多扩大领先优势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b2b4a8a182dc9846d8fb7e4039877\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"770\"><span>PDD profitability metrics &amp; revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PDD盈利指标和收入增长预测。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以从上图中观察到，拼多多的收入预计将在未来几年继续快速增长，尽管预计随后将正常化。更重要的是，拼多多预计未来的息税前利润和自由现金流盈利能力也将日益提高。这表明社区市场细分市场是一个非常重要的增长动力，阿里巴巴必须利用其优势来利用它，以否认拼多多在游戏早期声称的无可争议的领导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aadc32155b4108426a1a982e3b5b1c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>China public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云支出。来源：中国互联网观察；Canalys</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1538b9f7bdc8d6d35a72d9acf8ecbc\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Size of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云市场规模。数据来源：中国信通技术；新浪网</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴在中国公有云市场拥有40%的份额，远远领先于其主要竞争对手。然而，值得注意的是，尽管处于领先地位，阿里巴巴仍处于大力投资模式，以继续扩大其市场份额，因为中国公共云市场预计将从2017年的264.8亿元增长到2023年的2307.4亿元，这将代表CAGR 43.4%，这是一个令人难以置信的出色增长率。当我们将中国的增长率与全球增长率（见下文）进行比较时，这一点尤其明显，因为全球公共云支出预计将从2017年的1450亿美元增长到2022年的3970亿美元，这将代表22.3%的CAGR。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06198c569504bc303c34563041dfb294\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Worldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云支出。数据来源：Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8482037f60575f964053ab732496bee3\" tg-width=\"1176\" tg-height=\"700\"><span>Worldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云市场份额。来源：CnTechPost；Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.</p><p><blockquote>因此，阿里云在2020年以9.5%的市场份额继续扩大对Alphabet（纳斯达克：GOOGL）（纳斯达克：GOOG）GCP的领先优势，我并不觉得奇怪。虽然亚马逊仍然是市场上明显的领导者，但随着公共云支出的持续扩大，其市场份额一直在大幅下降，这表明多个参与者存在巨大的增长潜力。凭借阿里巴巴在快速扩张的中国市场的领导地位，我越来越看好该细分市场未来的利润和自由现金流对阿里巴巴业绩的贡献。尽管阿里巴巴的云部门尚未实现息税前利润（21财年息税前利润率：-15%，20财年息税前利润率：-17.5%），但值得注意的是，Alphabet的GCP也尚未实现盈利（20财年息税前利润率：-42.9%，19财年息税前利润率：-52%）。因此，我们需要给阿里巴巴一些时间来扩大其在亚太地区和中国的云服务规模，预计阿里巴巴将拥有更强大的领导力，使其能够更快地增长，投资者应该预计随着时间的推移，这将是一个高利润的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的估值看起来非常引人注目</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a087c4b3ef7efc2c5dde813e3b959d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>NTM TEV/EBIT 3Y范围。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2605c0e5ad364a7a43929fef204595c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\"><span>EV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>EV/Fwd息税前利润和EV/Fwd Rev趋势。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑阿里巴巴的TEV/EBIT历史范围（3年平均值为33.54倍）时，阿里巴巴的EV/Fwd EBIT趋势无疑意味着该股票被严重低估，因为预计阿里巴巴的收入和营业利润仍将快速增长。然而，由于我们希望更清楚地了解其同行的估值情况，我们认为如果我们对阿里巴巴的息税前利润进行估值，而不是下面介绍的一组基准公司，这将是有用的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27873e676dfb23c98d4a69aa5861e02\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1117\"><span>Peers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行EV/EBIT估值。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.</p><p><blockquote>通过混合使用历史和远期息税前利润，我们可以看到，与基准公司一组观察值的中值相比，阿里巴巴的EV/EBIT看起来确实被低估了。我们得出阿里巴巴的公允价值范围为294.98美元，位于该范围的中点，基于当前210美元的股价，这意味着40.5%的潜在上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks to Assumptions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>假设风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.</p><p><blockquote>现在，看着先生如何表现显然令人困惑。市场决定对阿里巴巴进行折扣，就好像该公司已经失去了所有关键的增长来源，而事实上，其商业部门、新的市场举措和不断增长的阿里云部门仍有很大的潜在上涨空间，其中。我们认为该股表现不佳的主要现实原因只是监管风险。我们认为投资者应该承认这种风险是非常真实的，有时大型中国公司会发现自己受到中国政府的额外审查（事实上这并不是什么新鲜事）。这里关键的是，中国政府似乎对其科技巨头的行为和行动拥有重大影响力，而这些影响力有时可能在很大程度上是不可预测的。市场当然讨厌不可预测性，因此他们可能会因此大幅折扣阿里巴巴。如果投资者无法应对潜在不可预测的监管行动及其后果的不确定性，那么阿里巴巴可能不适合您。然而，如果你认为这只是阿里巴巴漫长旅程中的一个短暂时刻，那么你肯定会发现阿里巴巴现在的估值极具吸引力，再加上长期思维。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切包起来</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW继续取得稳健的业绩，展示了公司强大的执行能力。由于该公司继续在一个拥有如此多增长动力的市场中运营，预计将推动公司未来的增长，投资者应该会发现当前的估值非常有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 09:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.</li>  <li>The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.</li>  <li>The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.</li>  <li>We discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e63c77d4f3f3dc3d618e43044638bb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Yongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW可能是目前最被低估的成长型股票。</li><li>该公司在快速扩张的市场中的多种增长动力使其估值看起来更加令人困惑。</li><li>短期技术面可能会转向看涨，并出现潜在的双底价格走势信号。</li><li>我们讨论公司的多种增长动力，让投资者自行判断。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>戴永源/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Technical Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术论文</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7febf6ed056b0e3bc038321cdaad9b1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba’s&nbsp;stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.</p><p><blockquote>自11月20日早些时候蚂蚁金服IPO被取消以来，阿里巴巴-SW的股价已经经历了可怕的8个月，股价低迷，较高点下跌了34%。当考虑其长期上升趋势的健康状况时，很明显BABA具有相对较强的上升趋势偏差，并且通常在其关键的50W MA上得到良好支撑。过去4年中唯一一次失去关键的50W MA支撑位是在2018年熊市期间，当时BABA下跌了约40%，但仍在重要的200W MA上方得到良好支撑，我们通常认为这是“最后一道防线”。现在阿里巴巴再次面临类似的情况：下跌34%，失去了50W MA，但看起来在200W MA上方得到了很好的支撑。除此之外，价格行为分析中的一个有趣观察可能会导致价格行为交易者/投资者特别看涨：潜在的双底形成。阿里巴巴的价格似乎正在经历双底，就像2018年熊市期间一样，随后强劲反弹。因此，阿里巴巴目前的水平现在可能提供一个可能的技术买入切入点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的基本论点：快速扩大增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba49f5881708929949c30628eedc5d4\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"578\"><span>Annual GMV. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年度GMV。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6c4ed3e2402f5af52b2dea8bab411\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"517\"><span>Annual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年电子商务收入。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴的GMV在短短7年内从1.68 T元增长到7.49 T元，复合年增长率为23.8%，增速确实惊人。我们还看到其GMV增长转化为收入增长，其中国商业收入从76.7亿元增长至4736.8亿元，过去10年复合年增长率为51%。虽然其国际足迹仍然相当小，但在过去10年中，其复合年增长率仍为30.42%，这一点也不慢。</blockquote></p><p> Even though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计未来三年中国电子商务市场的增长速度将大幅放缓，复合年增长率为12.4%，从2021年的13.8 T元（相当于2.16 T美元）增长到2024年的19.6 T元（相当于3.06 T美元），但庞大的市场规模仍然为阿里巴巴及其最接近的竞争对手提供了巨大的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe2dee43f267e1d1399c68e3ca60f36\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>E-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国电子商务收入数据来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.</p><p><blockquote>当我们通过比较中国与美国电子商务市场的增长率和规模来更清晰地看待事物时，我们可以看到它们的规模和增长率的巨大差异，因为美国电子商务市场预计仅增长2021年至2025年的复合年增长率为4.67%，明显低于中国的12.4%。此外，美国市场的总收入预计也将达到约5630亿美元，是届时中国市场预计价值的18%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a8d0d8a6a2dcdf667a6f33c6c9771\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>Peers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行息税前利润率和预计息税前利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&amp;A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.</p><p><blockquote>尽管阿里巴巴-SW一直面临着来自快速增长的主要竞争对手京东（纳斯达克：JD）和拼多多（纳斯达克：PDD）的越来越大的竞争压力，但阿里巴巴已经在经营利润更高的业务（息税前利润和自由现金流），并且预计未来将继续实现强劲的盈利能力，这将使该公司具有巨大的灵活性，可以与京东和拼多多正面竞争，以扩大其领导地位。投资者可能会注意到，阿里巴巴的息税前利润率受到其SG&amp;A中反映的27.82亿美元一次性行政罚款的影响，因此其息税前利润率出现下行。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of&nbsp;823M AAC&nbsp;in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only&nbsp;100M AAC in Q2’C17&nbsp;as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>一项重要举措是该公司决定进一步投资社区市场，这是拼多多的主要电子商务战略，拼多多在最近一个季度总共获得了8.23亿AAC，而阿里巴巴的AAC为8.91亿。与阿里巴巴同期的4.66亿AAC相比，拼多多的AAC在2017年第二季度仅有1亿AAC，其AAC增长确实是惊人的。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.</p><p><blockquote>因此，增长势头肯定已经转向社区市场领域，阿里巴巴需要拿出重磅炸弹（它已经拥有）来与拼多多和京东争夺主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b83b69b08b1f4b11a26393c8e6eead5\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国社区团购的市场规模。数据来源：艾媒咨询</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计到2022年1020亿元的总市场规模仅占阿里巴巴21财年中国商业收入的21.5%左右，但阿里巴巴不能错过2019年至2022年3年内44.22%的预期快速复合年增长率。虽然市场还比较小，但BABA不能让这个市场目前的龙头：PDD在旁人无知的情况下，如此轻易地称霸并吞噬早期的高增长率。当然，阿里巴巴必须竞争并争取自己在这一领域的地位，并争取早期领导地位，以防止拼多多扩大领先优势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b2b4a8a182dc9846d8fb7e4039877\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"770\"><span>PDD profitability metrics &amp; revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PDD盈利指标和收入增长预测。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以从上图中观察到，拼多多的收入预计将在未来几年继续快速增长，尽管预计随后将正常化。更重要的是，拼多多预计未来的息税前利润和自由现金流盈利能力也将日益提高。这表明社区市场细分市场是一个非常重要的增长动力，阿里巴巴必须利用其优势来利用它，以否认拼多多在游戏早期声称的无可争议的领导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aadc32155b4108426a1a982e3b5b1c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>China public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云支出。来源：中国互联网观察；Canalys</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1538b9f7bdc8d6d35a72d9acf8ecbc\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Size of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云市场规模。数据来源：中国信通技术；新浪网</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴在中国公有云市场拥有40%的份额，远远领先于其主要竞争对手。然而，值得注意的是，尽管处于领先地位，阿里巴巴仍处于大力投资模式，以继续扩大其市场份额，因为中国公共云市场预计将从2017年的264.8亿元增长到2023年的2307.4亿元，这将代表CAGR 43.4%，这是一个令人难以置信的出色增长率。当我们将中国的增长率与全球增长率（见下文）进行比较时，这一点尤其明显，因为全球公共云支出预计将从2017年的1450亿美元增长到2022年的3970亿美元，这将代表22.3%的CAGR。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06198c569504bc303c34563041dfb294\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Worldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云支出。数据来源：Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8482037f60575f964053ab732496bee3\" tg-width=\"1176\" tg-height=\"700\"><span>Worldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云市场份额。来源：CnTechPost；Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.</p><p><blockquote>因此，阿里云在2020年以9.5%的市场份额继续扩大对Alphabet（纳斯达克：GOOGL）（纳斯达克：GOOG）GCP的领先优势，我并不觉得奇怪。虽然亚马逊仍然是市场上明显的领导者，但随着公共云支出的持续扩大，其市场份额一直在大幅下降，这表明多个参与者存在巨大的增长潜力。凭借阿里巴巴在快速扩张的中国市场的领导地位，我越来越看好该细分市场未来的利润和自由现金流对阿里巴巴业绩的贡献。尽管阿里巴巴的云部门尚未实现息税前利润（21财年息税前利润率：-15%，20财年息税前利润率：-17.5%），但值得注意的是，Alphabet的GCP也尚未实现盈利（20财年息税前利润率：-42.9%，19财年息税前利润率：-52%）。因此，我们需要给阿里巴巴一些时间来扩大其在亚太地区和中国的云服务规模，预计阿里巴巴将拥有更强大的领导力，使其能够更快地增长，投资者应该预计随着时间的推移，这将是一个高利润的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的估值看起来非常引人注目</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a087c4b3ef7efc2c5dde813e3b959d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>NTM TEV/EBIT 3Y范围。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2605c0e5ad364a7a43929fef204595c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\"><span>EV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>EV/Fwd息税前利润和EV/Fwd Rev趋势。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑阿里巴巴的TEV/EBIT历史范围（3年平均值为33.54倍）时，阿里巴巴的EV/Fwd EBIT趋势无疑意味着该股票被严重低估，因为预计阿里巴巴的收入和营业利润仍将快速增长。然而，由于我们希望更清楚地了解其同行的估值情况，我们认为如果我们对阿里巴巴的息税前利润进行估值，而不是下面介绍的一组基准公司，这将是有用的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27873e676dfb23c98d4a69aa5861e02\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1117\"><span>Peers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行EV/EBIT估值。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.</p><p><blockquote>通过混合使用历史和远期息税前利润，我们可以看到，与基准公司一组观察值的中值相比，阿里巴巴的EV/EBIT看起来确实被低估了。我们得出阿里巴巴的公允价值范围为294.98美元，位于该范围的中点，基于当前210美元的股价，这意味着40.5%的潜在上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks to Assumptions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>假设风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.</p><p><blockquote>现在，看着先生如何表现显然令人困惑。市场决定对阿里巴巴进行折扣，就好像该公司已经失去了所有关键的增长来源，而事实上，其商业部门、新的市场举措和不断增长的阿里云部门仍有很大的潜在上涨空间，其中。我们认为该股表现不佳的主要现实原因只是监管风险。我们认为投资者应该承认这种风险是非常真实的，有时大型中国公司会发现自己受到中国政府的额外审查（事实上这并不是什么新鲜事）。这里关键的是，中国政府似乎对其科技巨头的行为和行动拥有重大影响力，而这些影响力有时可能在很大程度上是不可预测的。市场当然讨厌不可预测性，因此他们可能会因此大幅折扣阿里巴巴。如果投资者无法应对潜在不可预测的监管行动及其后果的不确定性，那么阿里巴巴可能不适合您。然而，如果你认为这只是阿里巴巴漫长旅程中的一个短暂时刻，那么你肯定会发现阿里巴巴现在的估值极具吸引力，再加上长期思维。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切包起来</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW继续取得稳健的业绩，展示了公司强大的执行能力。由于该公司继续在一个拥有如此多增长动力的市场中运营，预计将推动公司未来的增长，投资者应该会发现当前的估值非常有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175693382","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.\nThe company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.\nThe short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.\nWe discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.\n\nYongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nThe Technical Thesis\nSource: TradingView\nAlibaba’s stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.\nBABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers\nAnnual GMV. Data source: Company filings\nAnnual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings\nBABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.\nEven though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.\nE-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista\nWhen we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.\nPeers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nEven though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.\nOne important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of 823M AAC in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only 100M AAC in Q2’C17 as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.\nTherefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.\nMarket size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research\nEven though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.\nPDD profitability metrics & revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWe could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.\nChina public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys\nSize of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn\nBABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.\nWorldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner\nWorldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner\nTherefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.\nBABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling\nNTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.\nEV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWhen we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.\nPeers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nBy using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.\nRisks to Assumptions\nNow, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.\nWrapping It All Up\nAlibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09988":0.9,"BABA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":142,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118839618,"gmtCreate":1622727317634,"gmtModify":1634098699564,"author":{"id":"3582349066499647","authorId":"3582349066499647","name":"Huatcel","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6dc5ff854a615f554459ab92c2e24","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582349066499647","authorIdStr":"3582349066499647"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi comment and like thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Hi comment and like thanks&nbsp;","text":"Hi comment and like thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/118839618","repostId":"1139859065","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":278,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":110833791,"gmtCreate":1622436614813,"gmtModify":1634101471689,"author":{"id":"3582349066499647","authorId":"3582349066499647","name":"Huatcel","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6dc5ff854a615f554459ab92c2e24","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582349066499647","authorIdStr":"3582349066499647"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment and like","listText":"Comment and like","text":"Comment and like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/110833791","repostId":"2139438981","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":212,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":134520844,"gmtCreate":1622249373888,"gmtModify":1634102836223,"author":{"id":"3582349066499647","authorId":"3582349066499647","name":"Huatcel","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6dc5ff854a615f554459ab92c2e24","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582349066499647","authorIdStr":"3582349066499647"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment and like","listText":"Comment and like","text":"Comment and like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/134520844","repostId":"2138948877","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":239,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":134302315,"gmtCreate":1622205479137,"gmtModify":1634182879481,"author":{"id":"3582349066499647","authorId":"3582349066499647","name":"Huatcel","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6dc5ff854a615f554459ab92c2e24","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582349066499647","authorIdStr":"3582349066499647"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi like and comments&nbsp;","listText":"Hi like and comments&nbsp;","text":"Hi like and comments","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/134302315","repostId":"1114654556","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":190,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":135040012,"gmtCreate":1622123722636,"gmtModify":1634183652237,"author":{"id":"3582349066499647","authorId":"3582349066499647","name":"Huatcel","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6dc5ff854a615f554459ab92c2e24","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582349066499647","authorIdStr":"3582349066499647"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hello comment and like&nbsp;","listText":"Hello comment and like&nbsp;","text":"Hello comment and like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/135040012","repostId":"1188393893","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188393893","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1622123328,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1188393893?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-27 21:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Beyond Meat shares surges nearly 10%<blockquote>Beyond Meat股价飙升近10%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188393893","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Beyond Meat shares surges nearly 10%.For the first quarter of 2021, Beyond Meat saw 11.4% year-over-","content":"<p>Beyond Meat&nbsp;shares&nbsp;surges&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;10%.</p><p><blockquote>Beyond Meat股价飙升近10%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a34ea5683a321e8be4e74d066f19af12\" tg-width=\"810\" tg-height=\"610\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">For the first quarter of 2021, Beyond Meat saw 11.4% year-over-year (YOY) revenue growth despite the domestic foodservice segment being down 26% YOY. The reduction in the restaurant business drives the decrease in the foodservice segment, and Beyond Meat should see stronger results as restaurants begin to reopen domestically and internationally.</p><p><blockquote>2021年第一季度，尽管国内餐饮服务部门同比下降26%，但Beyond Meat的收入同比增长11.4%。餐厅业务的减少推动了餐饮服务领域的下降，随着餐厅开始在国内外重新开业，Beyond Meat应该会看到更强劲的业绩。</blockquote></p><p>Looking through Beyond Meat's investor relations press release, the company has announced numerous partnerships. To name a few, in the past three months it has increased its products in&nbsp;<b>Walmart</b>, partnered up with&nbsp;<b>Pizza Hut</b>Canada and Carl's Jr., announced major retail expansions throughout Europe, and opened up a manufacturing facility in China.</p><p><blockquote>翻阅Beyond Meat的投资者关系新闻稿，该公司已经宣布了众多合作伙伴关系。仅举几个例子，在过去的三个月里，它增加了在<b>沃尔玛</b>，与<b>必胜客</b>加拿大和Carl’s Jr.宣布在整个欧洲进行重大零售扩张，并在中国开设了一家制造工厂。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Beyond Meat shares surges nearly 10%<blockquote>Beyond Meat股价飙升近10%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBeyond Meat shares surges nearly 10%<blockquote>Beyond Meat股价飙升近10%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-27 21:48</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Beyond Meat&nbsp;shares&nbsp;surges&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;10%.</p><p><blockquote>Beyond Meat股价飙升近10%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a34ea5683a321e8be4e74d066f19af12\" tg-width=\"810\" tg-height=\"610\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">For the first quarter of 2021, Beyond Meat saw 11.4% year-over-year (YOY) revenue growth despite the domestic foodservice segment being down 26% YOY. The reduction in the restaurant business drives the decrease in the foodservice segment, and Beyond Meat should see stronger results as restaurants begin to reopen domestically and internationally.</p><p><blockquote>2021年第一季度，尽管国内餐饮服务部门同比下降26%，但Beyond Meat的收入同比增长11.4%。餐厅业务的减少推动了餐饮服务领域的下降，随着餐厅开始在国内外重新开业，Beyond Meat应该会看到更强劲的业绩。</blockquote></p><p>Looking through Beyond Meat's investor relations press release, the company has announced numerous partnerships. To name a few, in the past three months it has increased its products in&nbsp;<b>Walmart</b>, partnered up with&nbsp;<b>Pizza Hut</b>Canada and Carl's Jr., announced major retail expansions throughout Europe, and opened up a manufacturing facility in China.</p><p><blockquote>翻阅Beyond Meat的投资者关系新闻稿，该公司已经宣布了众多合作伙伴关系。仅举几个例子，在过去的三个月里，它增加了在<b>沃尔玛</b>，与<b>必胜客</b>加拿大和Carl’s Jr.宣布在整个欧洲进行重大零售扩张，并在中国开设了一家制造工厂。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BYND":"Beyond Meat, Inc."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188393893","content_text":"Beyond Meat shares surges nearly 10%.For the first quarter of 2021, Beyond Meat saw 11.4% year-over-year (YOY) revenue growth despite the domestic foodservice segment being down 26% YOY. The reduction in the restaurant business drives the decrease in the foodservice segment, and Beyond Meat should see stronger results as restaurants begin to reopen domestically and internationally.Looking through Beyond Meat's investor relations press release, the company has announced numerous partnerships. To name a few, in the past three months it has increased its products in Walmart, partnered up with Pizza HutCanada and Carl's Jr., announced major retail expansions throughout Europe, and opened up a manufacturing facility in China.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BYND":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":106,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":136509185,"gmtCreate":1622025094747,"gmtModify":1634184568724,"author":{"id":"3582349066499647","authorId":"3582349066499647","name":"Huatcel","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6dc5ff854a615f554459ab92c2e24","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582349066499647","authorIdStr":"3582349066499647"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi like and comments&nbsp;","listText":"Hi like and comments&nbsp;","text":"Hi like and comments","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/136509185","repostId":"1164246696","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":106,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":875792179,"gmtCreate":1637683587309,"gmtModify":1637684784134,"author":{"id":"3582349066499647","authorId":"3582349066499647","name":"Huatcel","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6dc5ff854a615f554459ab92c2e24","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582349066499647","idStr":"3582349066499647"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>&nbsp;should I sell or hold? I am so devastated","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>&nbsp;should I sell or hold? I am so devastated","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$ should I sell or hold? I am so devastated","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1749be341ddbb2c89f14d0a842ad370","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":17,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/875792179","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6052,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3567677730367093","authorId":"3567677730367093","name":"木火生辉","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4b04f3b4948890d0545f77067f44cae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3567677730367093","idStr":"3567677730367093"},"content":"这种时候当然是持有，因为已经没有出售的必要了，然后以后万一涨起来，会各种后悔。我均价跟你差不多，我diamond hand。","text":"这种时候当然是持有，因为已经没有出售的必要了，然后以后万一涨起来，会各种后悔。我均价跟你差不多，我diamond hand。","html":"这种时候当然是持有，因为已经没有出售的必要了，然后以后万一涨起来，会各种后悔。我均价跟你差不多，我diamond hand。"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":607827814,"gmtCreate":1639527065000,"gmtModify":1639527065124,"author":{"id":"3582349066499647","authorId":"3582349066499647","name":"Huatcel","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6dc5ff854a615f554459ab92c2e24","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582349066499647","idStr":"3582349066499647"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>😱😭😭😭","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>😱😭😭😭","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$😱😭😭😭","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92bd7c93be281065551552a837ef223e","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":13,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607827814","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2854,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":374766601,"gmtCreate":1619481605103,"gmtModify":1634273131613,"author":{"id":"3582349066499647","authorId":"3582349066499647","name":"Huatcel","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6dc5ff854a615f554459ab92c2e24","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582349066499647","idStr":"3582349066499647"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi do comment and like thanks","listText":"Hi do comment and like thanks","text":"Hi do comment and like thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/374766601","repostId":"1190086074","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1190086074","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1619480390,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1190086074?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-27 07:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla posts record net income of $438 million, revenue surges by 74%<blockquote>特斯拉净利润创纪录4.38亿美元营收暴增74%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190086074","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Tesla reported record net income of $438 million during the quarter, as well as earnings of 93 cents per share on $10.39 billion in revenue.In its earnings release, the company said it has weathered chip shortages that have plagued the auto industry in part by “pivoting extremely quickly to new microcontrollers, while simultaneously developing firmware for new chips made by new suppliers.”On an earnings call, CEO Elon Musk said the delayed new version of the company’s Model S sedan will be deliv","content":"<p><b>KEY POINTS</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要点</b></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Tesla reported record net income of $438 million during the quarter, as well as earnings of 93 cents per share on $10.39 billion in revenue.</li><li>In its earnings release, the company said it has weathered chip shortages that have plagued the auto industry in part by “pivoting extremely quickly to new microcontrollers, while simultaneously developing firmware for new chips made by new suppliers.”</li><li>On an earnings call, CEO Elon Musk said the delayed new version of the company’s Model S sedan will be delivered starting in May 2021, and Model X deliveries will begin in the third quarter of the year.</li></ul>Tesla&nbsp;reported first-quarter results after the bell on Monday. The company beat expectations handily, buoyed by sales of bitcoin and regulatory credits, but the stock dipped as much as 2.5% after hours as investors digested the numbers.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>特斯拉报告本季度净利润达到创纪录的4.38亿美元，每股收益为93美分，营收为103.9亿美元。</li><li>该公司在财报中表示，通过“极快地转向新的微控制器，同时为新供应商制造的新芯片开发固件”，它已经度过了困扰汽车行业的芯片短缺问题。</li><li>在财报看涨期权上，首席执行官Elon Musk表示，该公司推迟的新版Model S轿车将于2021年5月开始交付，Model X将于今年第三季度开始交付。</li></ul>特斯拉周一盘后公布了第一季度业绩。在比特币销售和监管信贷的提振下，该公司轻松超出预期，但随着投资者消化这些数据，该股盘后下跌2.5%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fec5c52f391c1077b749edc13b7b3417\" tg-width=\"1302\" tg-height=\"833\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Here’s how the company fared in the quarter, compared with analyst estimates compiled by Refinitiv:</p><p><blockquote>以下是该公司本季度的表现，与Refinitiv编制的分析师预期相比：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li><b>Earnings:</b>93 cents per share vs. 79 cents per share expected</li><li><b>Revenue:</b>$10.39 billion vs. $10.29 billion expected, up 74% from a year ago</li></ul>Net profit reached a quarterly record of $438 million on a GAAP basis, and the company recorded $518 million in revenue from sales of regulatory credits during the period. It also recorded a $101 million positive impact from&nbsp;sales of bitcoin&nbsp;during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>收益：</b>每股93美分，预期每股79美分</li><li><b>收入：</b>103.9亿美元，预期为102.9亿美元，同比增长74%</li></ul>按GAAP计算，净利润达到季度创纪录的4.38亿美元，该公司在此期间从监管信贷销售中获得了5.18亿美元的收入。本季度比特币销售还带来了1.01亿美元的积极影响。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/107ab1e725bed375ea106bdf3024ec6a\" tg-width=\"1910\" tg-height=\"1097\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>CEO Elon Musk’s electric vehicle business reported in the first quarter&nbsp;vehicle deliveries of 184,800&nbsp;Model 3 and Model Y cars, beating expectations and setting a record for Tesla. However, the company also said it produced none of its higher-end Model S sedans or Model X SUVs for the period ending March. It delivered2,020 older Model S sedans and Model X SUVs from inventory.</p><p><blockquote>首席执行官Elon Musk的电动汽车业务报告称，第一季度Model 3和Model Y汽车交付量为18.48万辆，超出预期，创下了特斯拉的纪录。不过，该公司还表示，截至3月份，该公司没有生产任何高端Model S轿车或Model X SUV。它从库存中交付了2,020辆旧款Model S轿车和Model X SUV。</blockquote></p><p>On Monday’s earnings call, Musk said the new version of the company’s Model S sedans will finally be delivered to customers starting in May 2021, with Model X deliveries to begin in the third quarter of the year. Musk and CFO Zachary Kirkhorn both said supply chain issues are likely to remain a challenge for Tesla this year.</p><p><blockquote>在周一的财报看涨期权上，Musk表示，该公司新版Model S轿车最终将于2021年5月开始向客户交付，Model X将于今年第三季度开始交付。Musk和CFO Zachary Kirkhorn均表示，供应链问题可能仍是特斯拉今年面临的挑战。</blockquote></p><p>In January 2021 (during a fourth-quarter 2020 earnings update) Musk had said that the Model S Plaid was already in production would be delivered starting in February 2021. But he admitted on Monday, “There were more challenges than expected,” in producing the refreshed version of these vehicles. He did not elaborate.</p><p><blockquote>2021年1月（在2020年第四季度财报更新期间），马斯克曾表示Model S Plaid已经投入生产，并将于2021年2月开始交付。但他周一承认，在生产这些车辆的更新版本时，“存在比预期更多的挑战”。他没有详细说明。</blockquote></p><p>Tesla is now aiming to produce 2,000 Model S and X vehicles per week later this year.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉目前的目标是在今年晚些时候每周生产2,000辆Model S和X汽车。</blockquote></p><p>The company said Monday it expects more than 50% vehicle delivery growth in 2021 overall, which implies minimum deliveries around 750,000 vehicles this year.</p><p><blockquote>该公司周一表示，预计2021年汽车交付量总体增长将超过50%，这意味着今年的最低交付量约为75万辆。</blockquote></p><p>The fact Tesla grew vehicle unit sales by more than 100% year over year but grew service centers by only 28% and its mobile service fleet by only 22% explains why some Tesla customers face frustratingly long wait times for repairs. Service expansion is not keeping pace with the volume of vehicles sold.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，特斯拉的汽车销量同比增长超过100%，但服务中心仅增长28%，移动服务车队仅增长22%，这解释了为什么一些特斯拉客户面临令人沮丧的漫长维修等待时间。服务扩张跟不上车辆销量的步伐。</blockquote></p><p>Tesla said it has weathered chip shortages that have plagued the auto industry in part by “pivoting extremely quickly to new microcontrollers, while simultaneously developing firmware for new chips made by new suppliers.” It did not disclose the names of its new suppliers.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉表示，它通过“极快地转向新的微控制器，同时为新供应商制造的新芯片开发固件”，部分克服了困扰汽车行业的芯片短缺问题。它没有透露新供应商的名称。</blockquote></p><p>It also reiterated Musk’s frequent claim that cameras, not radar, are a better path toward autonomous vehicles. “Our AI-based software architecture has been increasingly reliant on cameras, to the point where radar is becoming unnecessary earlier than expected. As a result, our FSD [Full Self-Driving] team is fully focused on evolving to a vision-based autonomous system and we are nearly ready to switch the US market to Tesla Vision,” the company said in its earnings release.</p><p><blockquote>它还重申了马斯克经常声称的摄像头而不是雷达是自动驾驶汽车的更好途径。“我们基于人工智能的软件架构越来越依赖摄像头，以至于雷达比预期更早变得不必要。因此，我们的FSD（全自动驾驶）团队完全专注于向基于视觉的自动驾驶系统发展，我们几乎准备好将美国市场转向特斯拉视觉，”该公司在财报中表示。</blockquote></p><p>Revenue for its energy generation and storage business nearly doubled for Tesla versus the same period in 2020, when Musk said Covid, then an emerging pandemic, had slowed its energy business to a crawl. But energy revenue declined from $787 million in the fourth quarter to $595 million in the first quarter of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>与2020年同期相比，特斯拉能源发电和存储业务的收入几乎翻了一番，当时马斯克表示，当时新冠疫情是一种新兴流行病，导致其能源业务放缓。但能源收入从第四季度的7.87亿美元下降至2021年第一季度的5.95亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Recently, Tesla increased prices for its solar rooftops by 50%, and now requires anyone ordering solar photovoltaics (including Tesla solar roof tiles) to also order the Powerwall, Tesla’s home energy storage system. The sudden price change applied retroactively to some&nbsp;vexed customers.</p><p><blockquote>最近，特斯拉将其太阳能屋顶的价格提高了50%，现在要求任何订购太阳能光伏（包括特斯拉太阳能屋顶瓦片）的人也必须订购特斯拉的家庭储能系统Powerwall。突然的价格变化追溯适用于一些恼怒的顾客。</blockquote></p><p>Musk said on the Q1 2021 call that he is aiming for homes with solar rooftops and batteries from Tesla to function as a “giant distributed utility” that can help incumbent electrical utilities supply customers with all the electricity they need as demand and extreme weather events increase.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克在2021年第一季度看涨期权上表示，他的目标是让拥有太阳能屋顶和特斯拉电池的家庭成为“巨型分布式公用事业公司”，可以帮助现有电力公司在需求和极端天气事件增加时为客户提供所需的所有电力。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Executives did not say how they would change their production or mix of battery cells from suppliers in order to make a higher volume of vehicles and energy storage products in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>高管们没有透露他们将如何改变供应商的电池生产或组合，以便在2021年生产更多的汽车和储能产品。</blockquote></p><p>Musk said the company’s 4680 cells, which it developed independently and makes at a pilot plant in Fremont, California, are not yet reliable enough to be shipped in Tesla vehicles. He said Tesla would probably “achieve volume production” of these cells in 12 to 18 months.</p><p><blockquote>Musk表示，该公司自主开发并在加州Fremont的一家试点工厂生产的4680电池还不够可靠，无法用特斯拉汽车运输。他表示，特斯拉可能会在12至18个月内“实现批量生产”这些电池。</blockquote></p><p>The company revealed in February it purchased&nbsp;$1.5 billion in bitcoin&nbsp;and would potentially invest in other cryptocurrencies in the future. By April, bitcoin rose to record levels before pulling back. In its statement of cash flows, Tesla revealed that it had sold $272 million worth of “digital assets,” presumably bitcoin, during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在2月份透露，它购买了15亿美元的比特币，并可能在未来投资其他加密货币。到4月份，比特币升至创纪录水平，然后回落。特斯拉在其现金流量表中透露，该公司在本季度出售了价值2.72亿美元的“数字资产”，可能是比特币。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla posts record net income of $438 million, revenue surges by 74%<blockquote>特斯拉净利润创纪录4.38亿美元营收暴增74%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla posts record net income of $438 million, revenue surges by 74%<blockquote>特斯拉净利润创纪录4.38亿美元营收暴增74%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-27 07:39</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>KEY POINTS</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要点</b></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Tesla reported record net income of $438 million during the quarter, as well as earnings of 93 cents per share on $10.39 billion in revenue.</li><li>In its earnings release, the company said it has weathered chip shortages that have plagued the auto industry in part by “pivoting extremely quickly to new microcontrollers, while simultaneously developing firmware for new chips made by new suppliers.”</li><li>On an earnings call, CEO Elon Musk said the delayed new version of the company’s Model S sedan will be delivered starting in May 2021, and Model X deliveries will begin in the third quarter of the year.</li></ul>Tesla&nbsp;reported first-quarter results after the bell on Monday. The company beat expectations handily, buoyed by sales of bitcoin and regulatory credits, but the stock dipped as much as 2.5% after hours as investors digested the numbers.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>特斯拉报告本季度净利润达到创纪录的4.38亿美元，每股收益为93美分，营收为103.9亿美元。</li><li>该公司在财报中表示，通过“极快地转向新的微控制器，同时为新供应商制造的新芯片开发固件”，它已经度过了困扰汽车行业的芯片短缺问题。</li><li>在财报看涨期权上，首席执行官Elon Musk表示，该公司推迟的新版Model S轿车将于2021年5月开始交付，Model X将于今年第三季度开始交付。</li></ul>特斯拉周一盘后公布了第一季度业绩。在比特币销售和监管信贷的提振下，该公司轻松超出预期，但随着投资者消化这些数据，该股盘后下跌2.5%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fec5c52f391c1077b749edc13b7b3417\" tg-width=\"1302\" tg-height=\"833\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Here’s how the company fared in the quarter, compared with analyst estimates compiled by Refinitiv:</p><p><blockquote>以下是该公司本季度的表现，与Refinitiv编制的分析师预期相比：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li><b>Earnings:</b>93 cents per share vs. 79 cents per share expected</li><li><b>Revenue:</b>$10.39 billion vs. $10.29 billion expected, up 74% from a year ago</li></ul>Net profit reached a quarterly record of $438 million on a GAAP basis, and the company recorded $518 million in revenue from sales of regulatory credits during the period. It also recorded a $101 million positive impact from&nbsp;sales of bitcoin&nbsp;during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>收益：</b>每股93美分，预期每股79美分</li><li><b>收入：</b>103.9亿美元，预期为102.9亿美元，同比增长74%</li></ul>按GAAP计算，净利润达到季度创纪录的4.38亿美元，该公司在此期间从监管信贷销售中获得了5.18亿美元的收入。本季度比特币销售还带来了1.01亿美元的积极影响。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/107ab1e725bed375ea106bdf3024ec6a\" tg-width=\"1910\" tg-height=\"1097\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>CEO Elon Musk’s electric vehicle business reported in the first quarter&nbsp;vehicle deliveries of 184,800&nbsp;Model 3 and Model Y cars, beating expectations and setting a record for Tesla. However, the company also said it produced none of its higher-end Model S sedans or Model X SUVs for the period ending March. It delivered2,020 older Model S sedans and Model X SUVs from inventory.</p><p><blockquote>首席执行官Elon Musk的电动汽车业务报告称，第一季度Model 3和Model Y汽车交付量为18.48万辆，超出预期，创下了特斯拉的纪录。不过，该公司还表示，截至3月份，该公司没有生产任何高端Model S轿车或Model X SUV。它从库存中交付了2,020辆旧款Model S轿车和Model X SUV。</blockquote></p><p>On Monday’s earnings call, Musk said the new version of the company’s Model S sedans will finally be delivered to customers starting in May 2021, with Model X deliveries to begin in the third quarter of the year. Musk and CFO Zachary Kirkhorn both said supply chain issues are likely to remain a challenge for Tesla this year.</p><p><blockquote>在周一的财报看涨期权上，Musk表示，该公司新版Model S轿车最终将于2021年5月开始向客户交付，Model X将于今年第三季度开始交付。Musk和CFO Zachary Kirkhorn均表示，供应链问题可能仍是特斯拉今年面临的挑战。</blockquote></p><p>In January 2021 (during a fourth-quarter 2020 earnings update) Musk had said that the Model S Plaid was already in production would be delivered starting in February 2021. But he admitted on Monday, “There were more challenges than expected,” in producing the refreshed version of these vehicles. He did not elaborate.</p><p><blockquote>2021年1月（在2020年第四季度财报更新期间），马斯克曾表示Model S Plaid已经投入生产，并将于2021年2月开始交付。但他周一承认，在生产这些车辆的更新版本时，“存在比预期更多的挑战”。他没有详细说明。</blockquote></p><p>Tesla is now aiming to produce 2,000 Model S and X vehicles per week later this year.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉目前的目标是在今年晚些时候每周生产2,000辆Model S和X汽车。</blockquote></p><p>The company said Monday it expects more than 50% vehicle delivery growth in 2021 overall, which implies minimum deliveries around 750,000 vehicles this year.</p><p><blockquote>该公司周一表示，预计2021年汽车交付量总体增长将超过50%，这意味着今年的最低交付量约为75万辆。</blockquote></p><p>The fact Tesla grew vehicle unit sales by more than 100% year over year but grew service centers by only 28% and its mobile service fleet by only 22% explains why some Tesla customers face frustratingly long wait times for repairs. Service expansion is not keeping pace with the volume of vehicles sold.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，特斯拉的汽车销量同比增长超过100%，但服务中心仅增长28%，移动服务车队仅增长22%，这解释了为什么一些特斯拉客户面临令人沮丧的漫长维修等待时间。服务扩张跟不上车辆销量的步伐。</blockquote></p><p>Tesla said it has weathered chip shortages that have plagued the auto industry in part by “pivoting extremely quickly to new microcontrollers, while simultaneously developing firmware for new chips made by new suppliers.” It did not disclose the names of its new suppliers.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉表示，它通过“极快地转向新的微控制器，同时为新供应商制造的新芯片开发固件”，部分克服了困扰汽车行业的芯片短缺问题。它没有透露新供应商的名称。</blockquote></p><p>It also reiterated Musk’s frequent claim that cameras, not radar, are a better path toward autonomous vehicles. “Our AI-based software architecture has been increasingly reliant on cameras, to the point where radar is becoming unnecessary earlier than expected. As a result, our FSD [Full Self-Driving] team is fully focused on evolving to a vision-based autonomous system and we are nearly ready to switch the US market to Tesla Vision,” the company said in its earnings release.</p><p><blockquote>它还重申了马斯克经常声称的摄像头而不是雷达是自动驾驶汽车的更好途径。“我们基于人工智能的软件架构越来越依赖摄像头，以至于雷达比预期更早变得不必要。因此，我们的FSD（全自动驾驶）团队完全专注于向基于视觉的自动驾驶系统发展，我们几乎准备好将美国市场转向特斯拉视觉，”该公司在财报中表示。</blockquote></p><p>Revenue for its energy generation and storage business nearly doubled for Tesla versus the same period in 2020, when Musk said Covid, then an emerging pandemic, had slowed its energy business to a crawl. But energy revenue declined from $787 million in the fourth quarter to $595 million in the first quarter of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>与2020年同期相比，特斯拉能源发电和存储业务的收入几乎翻了一番，当时马斯克表示，当时新冠疫情是一种新兴流行病，导致其能源业务放缓。但能源收入从第四季度的7.87亿美元下降至2021年第一季度的5.95亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Recently, Tesla increased prices for its solar rooftops by 50%, and now requires anyone ordering solar photovoltaics (including Tesla solar roof tiles) to also order the Powerwall, Tesla’s home energy storage system. The sudden price change applied retroactively to some&nbsp;vexed customers.</p><p><blockquote>最近，特斯拉将其太阳能屋顶的价格提高了50%，现在要求任何订购太阳能光伏（包括特斯拉太阳能屋顶瓦片）的人也必须订购特斯拉的家庭储能系统Powerwall。突然的价格变化追溯适用于一些恼怒的顾客。</blockquote></p><p>Musk said on the Q1 2021 call that he is aiming for homes with solar rooftops and batteries from Tesla to function as a “giant distributed utility” that can help incumbent electrical utilities supply customers with all the electricity they need as demand and extreme weather events increase.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克在2021年第一季度看涨期权上表示，他的目标是让拥有太阳能屋顶和特斯拉电池的家庭成为“巨型分布式公用事业公司”，可以帮助现有电力公司在需求和极端天气事件增加时为客户提供所需的所有电力。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Executives did not say how they would change their production or mix of battery cells from suppliers in order to make a higher volume of vehicles and energy storage products in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>高管们没有透露他们将如何改变供应商的电池生产或组合，以便在2021年生产更多的汽车和储能产品。</blockquote></p><p>Musk said the company’s 4680 cells, which it developed independently and makes at a pilot plant in Fremont, California, are not yet reliable enough to be shipped in Tesla vehicles. He said Tesla would probably “achieve volume production” of these cells in 12 to 18 months.</p><p><blockquote>Musk表示，该公司自主开发并在加州Fremont的一家试点工厂生产的4680电池还不够可靠，无法用特斯拉汽车运输。他表示，特斯拉可能会在12至18个月内“实现批量生产”这些电池。</blockquote></p><p>The company revealed in February it purchased&nbsp;$1.5 billion in bitcoin&nbsp;and would potentially invest in other cryptocurrencies in the future. By April, bitcoin rose to record levels before pulling back. In its statement of cash flows, Tesla revealed that it had sold $272 million worth of “digital assets,” presumably bitcoin, during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在2月份透露，它购买了15亿美元的比特币，并可能在未来投资其他加密货币。到4月份，比特币升至创纪录水平，然后回落。特斯拉在其现金流量表中透露，该公司在本季度出售了价值2.72亿美元的“数字资产”，可能是比特币。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190086074","content_text":"KEY POINTSTesla reported record net income of $438 million during the quarter, as well as earnings of 93 cents per share on $10.39 billion in revenue.In its earnings release, the company said it has weathered chip shortages that have plagued the auto industry in part by “pivoting extremely quickly to new microcontrollers, while simultaneously developing firmware for new chips made by new suppliers.”On an earnings call, CEO Elon Musk said the delayed new version of the company’s Model S sedan will be delivered starting in May 2021, and Model X deliveries will begin in the third quarter of the year.Tesla reported first-quarter results after the bell on Monday. The company beat expectations handily, buoyed by sales of bitcoin and regulatory credits, but the stock dipped as much as 2.5% after hours as investors digested the numbers.Here’s how the company fared in the quarter, compared with analyst estimates compiled by Refinitiv:Earnings:93 cents per share vs. 79 cents per share expectedRevenue:$10.39 billion vs. $10.29 billion expected, up 74% from a year agoNet profit reached a quarterly record of $438 million on a GAAP basis, and the company recorded $518 million in revenue from sales of regulatory credits during the period. It also recorded a $101 million positive impact from sales of bitcoin during the quarter.CEO Elon Musk’s electric vehicle business reported in the first quarter vehicle deliveries of 184,800 Model 3 and Model Y cars, beating expectations and setting a record for Tesla. However, the company also said it produced none of its higher-end Model S sedans or Model X SUVs for the period ending March. It delivered2,020 older Model S sedans and Model X SUVs from inventory.On Monday’s earnings call, Musk said the new version of the company’s Model S sedans will finally be delivered to customers starting in May 2021, with Model X deliveries to begin in the third quarter of the year. Musk and CFO Zachary Kirkhorn both said supply chain issues are likely to remain a challenge for Tesla this year.In January 2021 (during a fourth-quarter 2020 earnings update) Musk had said that the Model S Plaid was already in production would be delivered starting in February 2021. But he admitted on Monday, “There were more challenges than expected,” in producing the refreshed version of these vehicles. He did not elaborate.Tesla is now aiming to produce 2,000 Model S and X vehicles per week later this year.The company said Monday it expects more than 50% vehicle delivery growth in 2021 overall, which implies minimum deliveries around 750,000 vehicles this year.The fact Tesla grew vehicle unit sales by more than 100% year over year but grew service centers by only 28% and its mobile service fleet by only 22% explains why some Tesla customers face frustratingly long wait times for repairs. Service expansion is not keeping pace with the volume of vehicles sold.Tesla said it has weathered chip shortages that have plagued the auto industry in part by “pivoting extremely quickly to new microcontrollers, while simultaneously developing firmware for new chips made by new suppliers.” It did not disclose the names of its new suppliers.It also reiterated Musk’s frequent claim that cameras, not radar, are a better path toward autonomous vehicles. “Our AI-based software architecture has been increasingly reliant on cameras, to the point where radar is becoming unnecessary earlier than expected. As a result, our FSD [Full Self-Driving] team is fully focused on evolving to a vision-based autonomous system and we are nearly ready to switch the US market to Tesla Vision,” the company said in its earnings release.Revenue for its energy generation and storage business nearly doubled for Tesla versus the same period in 2020, when Musk said Covid, then an emerging pandemic, had slowed its energy business to a crawl. But energy revenue declined from $787 million in the fourth quarter to $595 million in the first quarter of 2021.Recently, Tesla increased prices for its solar rooftops by 50%, and now requires anyone ordering solar photovoltaics (including Tesla solar roof tiles) to also order the Powerwall, Tesla’s home energy storage system. The sudden price change applied retroactively to some vexed customers.Musk said on the Q1 2021 call that he is aiming for homes with solar rooftops and batteries from Tesla to function as a “giant distributed utility” that can help incumbent electrical utilities supply customers with all the electricity they need as demand and extreme weather events increase.Executives did not say how they would change their production or mix of battery cells from suppliers in order to make a higher volume of vehicles and energy storage products in 2021.Musk said the company’s 4680 cells, which it developed independently and makes at a pilot plant in Fremont, California, are not yet reliable enough to be shipped in Tesla vehicles. He said Tesla would probably “achieve volume production” of these cells in 12 to 18 months.The company revealed in February it purchased $1.5 billion in bitcoin and would potentially invest in other cryptocurrencies in the future. By April, bitcoin rose to record levels before pulling back. In its statement of cash flows, Tesla revealed that it had sold $272 million worth of “digital assets,” presumably bitcoin, during the quarter.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":420,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":178323955,"gmtCreate":1626788857877,"gmtModify":1633771032288,"author":{"id":"3582349066499647","authorId":"3582349066499647","name":"Huatcel","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6dc5ff854a615f554459ab92c2e24","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582349066499647","idStr":"3582349066499647"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>&nbsp;should I cut lost or HODL","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>&nbsp;should I cut lost or HODL","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$ should I cut lost or HODL","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/178323955","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2649,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":191062282,"gmtCreate":1620828502146,"gmtModify":1634196011743,"author":{"id":"3582349066499647","authorId":"3582349066499647","name":"Huatcel","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6dc5ff854a615f554459ab92c2e24","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582349066499647","idStr":"3582349066499647"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hello please like and comment&nbsp;","listText":"Hello please like and comment&nbsp;","text":"Hello please like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/191062282","repostId":"1175479098","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175479098","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1620828125,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175479098?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-12 22:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"New Outbreaks Prompt Return to Restrictions in Taiwan, Semiconductor Stocks Fell Today<blockquote>新发疫情促使台湾恢复限制措施半导体股今日下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175479098","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(May 12) Semiconductor stocks fell, as Taiwan warns COVID alert level could rise.Taiwan reported its","content":"<p>(May 12)&nbsp;Semiconductor stocks fell, as Taiwan warns COVID alert level could rise.</p><p><blockquote>（5月12日）半导体股下跌，台湾警告COVID警戒级别可能上升。</blockquote></p><p>Taiwan reported its largest daily rise in domestic COVID-19 cases on Wednesday, while the stock market tanked after the health minister warned the island could move to a higher alert level, though he later clarified that step was not imminent.</p><p><blockquote>台湾周三报告了国内COVID-19病例的最大单日增幅，而在卫生部长警告台湾可能会进入更高的警戒级别后，股市暴跌，尽管他后来澄清这一步骤不会迫在眉睫。</blockquote></p><p>Early and effective prevention steps succeeded in shielding Taiwan from the worst of the pandemic, with just 1,231 infections reported so far.</p><p><blockquote>早期有效的预防措施成功地使台湾免受疫情最严重的影响，迄今为止仅报告了1,231例感染。</blockquote></p><p>But markets have been on edge since renewed domestic outbreaks began late last month, with 16 new domestic cases announced on Wednesday setting a record daily high.</p><p><blockquote>但自上月底国内疫情再次爆发以来，市场一直处于紧张状态，周三宣布新增16例国内病例，创下单日新高。</blockquote></p><p>Taiwan's benchmark stock index(.TWII)was down more than 8% at one point in a fall that accelerated as Health Minister Chen Shih-chung told parliament the alert level could be raised, potentially leading to strict new limits on gatherings and closure of non-essential businesses.</p><p><blockquote>台湾基准股指（。TWII）一度下跌超过8%，随着卫生部长陈时中告诉议会，警戒级别可能会提高，这可能导致对集会的严格新限制和非必要企业的关闭，跌势加速。</blockquote></p><p>Semiconductor stocks fell today.</p><p><blockquote>半导体股今天下跌。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f22e71e408d72b8a37262d2c8deb5d2\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"676\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0f4d34303f94c11eccc3320d2a77ec9\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"612\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">There's more demand for chips than there is supply right now, which has caused a chip shortage for everything from televisions to automobiles.</p><p><blockquote>目前对芯片的需求大于供应，这导致了从电视到汽车等各种产品的芯片短缺。</blockquote></p><p>Chip manufacturing took a hit from supply chain disruptions as the coronavirus pandemic took root around the world last year, forcing workers into lockdowns. Additionally, shifting consumer spending during the pandemic and rising tensions between the U.S. and China have disrupted the normal flow of chip production.</p><p><blockquote>去年，随着冠状病毒大流行在世界各地扎根，芯片制造受到供应链中断的打击，迫使工人封锁。此外，疫情期间消费者支出的转移以及中美之间紧张局势的加剧扰乱了芯片生产的正常流动。</blockquote></p><p>While chipmakers are trying to ramp up production to meet demand, some analysts have suggested that the chip shortage could last for a couple of years. It's unclear how severe an ongoing chip shortage could be, but investors are already feeling the pressure.</p><p><blockquote>虽然芯片制造商正试图提高产量以满足需求，但一些分析师表示，芯片短缺可能会持续几年。目前尚不清楚持续的芯片短缺会有多严重，但投资者已经感受到了压力。</blockquote></p><p><b>Qpinion:&nbsp;The global chip shortage could last until 2023</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Qpinion：全球芯片短缺可能持续到2023年</b></blockquote></p><p>Semiconductors will be in short supply for some time to come yet, according to analysts that monitor the industry.</p><p><blockquote>据监测该行业的分析师称，半导体在未来一段时间内将出现供应短缺。</blockquote></p><p>Today, chips are in everything from PlayStation 5s and toothbrushes to washing machines and alarm clocks. But there's not enough to go around — it's a multifaceted issue thatshows no signs of abating, leading some to call the current crisis \"chipageddon.\"</p><p><blockquote>如今，从PlayStation 5s和牙刷到洗衣机和闹钟，芯片无处不在。但解决办法还不够——这是一个多方面的问题，而且没有减弱的迹象，导致一些人将当前的危机称为“芯片”。</blockquote></p><p>Glenn O'Donnell, a vice president research director at advisory firm Forrester, believes the shortage could last until 2023.</p><p><blockquote>咨询公司Forrester的副总裁研究总监Glenn O’Donnell认为，短缺可能会持续到2023年。</blockquote></p><p>\"Because demand will remain high and supply will remain constrained, we expect this shortage to last through 2022 and into 2023,\" he wrote in ablog.</p><p><blockquote>他在ablog中写道：“由于需求仍将保持高位，而供应仍将受到限制，我们预计这种短缺将持续到2022年和2023年。”</blockquote></p><p>O'Donnell expects demand for PCs, which contain some of the most advanced chips, to \"soften a bit\" in the coming year but \"not a lot.\"</p><p><blockquote>奥唐纳预计，对包含一些最先进芯片的个人电脑的需求在未来一年将“有所疲软”，但“不会太多”。</blockquote></p><p>Meanwhile, he expects data centers, which are full of computer servers, to buy more chips in the next year after what he describes as a \"dismal 2020.\"</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，他预计，在经历了他所描述的“惨淡的2020年”之后，充满计算机服务器的数据中心将在明年购买更多芯片。</blockquote></p><p>\"Couple that with the unstoppable desire to instrument everything, along with continued growth in cloud computing and cryptocurrency mining, and we see nothing but boom times ahead for chip demand,\" said O'Donell.</p><p><blockquote>奥多内尔表示：“再加上对一切仪器化的不可阻挡的渴望，以及云计算和加密货币挖矿的持续增长，我们只看到芯片需求的繁荣时期。”</blockquote></p><p>Meanwhile, Patrick Armstrong, CIO of Plurimi Investment Managers, told CNBC's \"Street Signs Europe\" last week, that he thinks the chip shortage will last 18 months. \"It's not just autos. It's phones. It's the internet of everything. There's so many goods now that have many more chips than they ever did in the past,\" he said. \"They're all internet enabled.\"</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，Plurimi Investment Managers首席信息官帕特里克·阿姆斯特朗(Patrick Armstrong)上周向CNBC的“欧洲路标”节目表示，他认为芯片短缺将持续18个月。“不仅仅是汽车。还有手机。这是万物的互联网。现在有太多的商品比过去拥有更多的芯片，”他说。“它们都支持互联网。”</blockquote></p><p>The car industry has been affected by the global chip shortage more than any other sector.</p><p><blockquote>汽车行业受全球芯片短缺的影响比其他任何行业都大。</blockquote></p><p>The world's largest chip manufacturer, TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company), said earlier this month that it thinks it will be able to catch up with automotive demand by June. Armstrong, however, believes that's ambitious.</p><p><blockquote>全球最大的芯片制造商台积电（台积电公司）本月早些时候表示，它认为到6月份将能够赶上汽车需求。然而，阿姆斯特朗认为这是雄心勃勃的。</blockquote></p><p>\"If you listen to Ford, BMW, Volkswagen, they all highlighted that there's bottlenecks in capacity and they can't get the chips they need to manufacture the new cars,\" he said.</p><p><blockquote>“如果你听听福特、宝马、大众的意见，他们都强调产能存在瓶颈，他们无法获得制造新车所需的芯片，”他说。</blockquote></p><p>Elsewhere, Gartner said on Wednesday that the shortage will persist throughout 2021, adding that the shortage impacts all chip types and that chip prices are rising.</p><p><blockquote>在其他方面，Gartner周三表示，短缺将持续到2021年，并补充说，短缺影响到所有芯片类型，芯片价格正在上涨。</blockquote></p><p>Gartner analyst Alan Priestley told CNBC Thursday that the situation may improve for some sectors in the next six months, but that there may be a \"knock-on effect\" into 2022.</p><p><blockquote>Gartner分析师Alan Priestley周四对CNBC表示，未来六个月某些行业的情况可能会有所改善，但可能会对2022年产生“连锁反应”。</blockquote></p><p>\"It shouldn't go longer,\" he said. \"The industry is putting more capacity in place, but it does take time.\"</p><p><blockquote>“应该不会再持续了，”他说。“该行业正在增加产能，但这确实需要时间。”</blockquote></p><p>Indeed, Intel,announced in Marchthat it plans to spend $20 billion on two new chip factories in Arizona. Intel has also said it could build a plant in Europe if it gets public funding.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，英特尔在3月份宣布计划斥资200亿美元在亚利桑那州新建两家芯片工厂。英特尔还表示，如果获得公共资金，它可能会在欧洲建厂。</blockquote></p><p>\"That stuff is going take two or three years before we start to see that,\" said Priestley. \"But that's really looking to meet future demand.\"</p><p><blockquote>普里斯特利说：“我们需要两三年的时间才能看到这一点。”“但这确实是为了满足未来的需求。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Meanwhile, the chief executive of German chipmaker Infineon said last Tuesday that the semiconductor industry is in unchartered territory.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，德国芯片制造商英飞凌的首席执行官上周二表示，半导体行业正处于未知领域。</blockquote></p><p>Reinhard Ploss told CNBC's \"Street Signs Europe\" last week that it is \"very clear it will take time\" until supply and demand are rebalanced.</p><p><blockquote>赖因哈德·普洛斯(Reinhard Ploss)上周在CNBC的“欧洲路标”节目中表示，供需重新平衡“很明显需要时间”。</blockquote></p><p>\"I think two years is too long, but we will definitely see it reaching out to 2022,\" he said. \"I think additional capacity is going to come … I expect a more balanced situation in the next calendar year.\"</p><p><blockquote>“我认为两年太长了，但我们肯定会看到它延伸到2022年，”他说。“我认为额外的产能将会到来……我预计下一个日历年的情况会更加平衡。”</blockquote></p><p>Wenzhe Zhao, director of global economies and strategy at Credit Suisse, said in a note last Wednesday that the recent chip shortages have encouraged inventory hoarding along chip production chains, widening the gap between expanding demand and stagnant supply.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷全球经济和战略主管赵文哲上周三在一份报告中表示，最近的芯片短缺鼓励了芯片生产链上的库存囤积，扩大了不断扩大的需求和停滞的供应之间的差距。</blockquote></p><p>Zhao said that new semiconductor production capacity won't come online until 2022 or later, adding that little can be done to address today's shortage besides adjusting order books, production schedules, and prices.</p><p><blockquote>赵表示，新的半导体产能要到2022年或更晚才会上线，并补充说，除了调整订单、生产计划和价格外，几乎无法解决目前的短缺问题。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNew Outbreaks Prompt Return to Restrictions in Taiwan, Semiconductor Stocks Fell Today<blockquote>新发疫情促使台湾恢复限制措施半导体股今日下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-12 22:02</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(May 12)&nbsp;Semiconductor stocks fell, as Taiwan warns COVID alert level could rise.</p><p><blockquote>（5月12日）半导体股下跌，台湾警告COVID警戒级别可能上升。</blockquote></p><p>Taiwan reported its largest daily rise in domestic COVID-19 cases on Wednesday, while the stock market tanked after the health minister warned the island could move to a higher alert level, though he later clarified that step was not imminent.</p><p><blockquote>台湾周三报告了国内COVID-19病例的最大单日增幅，而在卫生部长警告台湾可能会进入更高的警戒级别后，股市暴跌，尽管他后来澄清这一步骤不会迫在眉睫。</blockquote></p><p>Early and effective prevention steps succeeded in shielding Taiwan from the worst of the pandemic, with just 1,231 infections reported so far.</p><p><blockquote>早期有效的预防措施成功地使台湾免受疫情最严重的影响，迄今为止仅报告了1,231例感染。</blockquote></p><p>But markets have been on edge since renewed domestic outbreaks began late last month, with 16 new domestic cases announced on Wednesday setting a record daily high.</p><p><blockquote>但自上月底国内疫情再次爆发以来，市场一直处于紧张状态，周三宣布新增16例国内病例，创下单日新高。</blockquote></p><p>Taiwan's benchmark stock index(.TWII)was down more than 8% at one point in a fall that accelerated as Health Minister Chen Shih-chung told parliament the alert level could be raised, potentially leading to strict new limits on gatherings and closure of non-essential businesses.</p><p><blockquote>台湾基准股指（。TWII）一度下跌超过8%，随着卫生部长陈时中告诉议会，警戒级别可能会提高，这可能导致对集会的严格新限制和非必要企业的关闭，跌势加速。</blockquote></p><p>Semiconductor stocks fell today.</p><p><blockquote>半导体股今天下跌。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f22e71e408d72b8a37262d2c8deb5d2\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"676\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0f4d34303f94c11eccc3320d2a77ec9\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"612\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">There's more demand for chips than there is supply right now, which has caused a chip shortage for everything from televisions to automobiles.</p><p><blockquote>目前对芯片的需求大于供应，这导致了从电视到汽车等各种产品的芯片短缺。</blockquote></p><p>Chip manufacturing took a hit from supply chain disruptions as the coronavirus pandemic took root around the world last year, forcing workers into lockdowns. Additionally, shifting consumer spending during the pandemic and rising tensions between the U.S. and China have disrupted the normal flow of chip production.</p><p><blockquote>去年，随着冠状病毒大流行在世界各地扎根，芯片制造受到供应链中断的打击，迫使工人封锁。此外，疫情期间消费者支出的转移以及中美之间紧张局势的加剧扰乱了芯片生产的正常流动。</blockquote></p><p>While chipmakers are trying to ramp up production to meet demand, some analysts have suggested that the chip shortage could last for a couple of years. It's unclear how severe an ongoing chip shortage could be, but investors are already feeling the pressure.</p><p><blockquote>虽然芯片制造商正试图提高产量以满足需求，但一些分析师表示，芯片短缺可能会持续几年。目前尚不清楚持续的芯片短缺会有多严重，但投资者已经感受到了压力。</blockquote></p><p><b>Qpinion:&nbsp;The global chip shortage could last until 2023</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Qpinion：全球芯片短缺可能持续到2023年</b></blockquote></p><p>Semiconductors will be in short supply for some time to come yet, according to analysts that monitor the industry.</p><p><blockquote>据监测该行业的分析师称，半导体在未来一段时间内将出现供应短缺。</blockquote></p><p>Today, chips are in everything from PlayStation 5s and toothbrushes to washing machines and alarm clocks. But there's not enough to go around — it's a multifaceted issue thatshows no signs of abating, leading some to call the current crisis \"chipageddon.\"</p><p><blockquote>如今，从PlayStation 5s和牙刷到洗衣机和闹钟，芯片无处不在。但解决办法还不够——这是一个多方面的问题，而且没有减弱的迹象，导致一些人将当前的危机称为“芯片”。</blockquote></p><p>Glenn O'Donnell, a vice president research director at advisory firm Forrester, believes the shortage could last until 2023.</p><p><blockquote>咨询公司Forrester的副总裁研究总监Glenn O’Donnell认为，短缺可能会持续到2023年。</blockquote></p><p>\"Because demand will remain high and supply will remain constrained, we expect this shortage to last through 2022 and into 2023,\" he wrote in ablog.</p><p><blockquote>他在ablog中写道：“由于需求仍将保持高位，而供应仍将受到限制，我们预计这种短缺将持续到2022年和2023年。”</blockquote></p><p>O'Donnell expects demand for PCs, which contain some of the most advanced chips, to \"soften a bit\" in the coming year but \"not a lot.\"</p><p><blockquote>奥唐纳预计，对包含一些最先进芯片的个人电脑的需求在未来一年将“有所疲软”，但“不会太多”。</blockquote></p><p>Meanwhile, he expects data centers, which are full of computer servers, to buy more chips in the next year after what he describes as a \"dismal 2020.\"</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，他预计，在经历了他所描述的“惨淡的2020年”之后，充满计算机服务器的数据中心将在明年购买更多芯片。</blockquote></p><p>\"Couple that with the unstoppable desire to instrument everything, along with continued growth in cloud computing and cryptocurrency mining, and we see nothing but boom times ahead for chip demand,\" said O'Donell.</p><p><blockquote>奥多内尔表示：“再加上对一切仪器化的不可阻挡的渴望，以及云计算和加密货币挖矿的持续增长，我们只看到芯片需求的繁荣时期。”</blockquote></p><p>Meanwhile, Patrick Armstrong, CIO of Plurimi Investment Managers, told CNBC's \"Street Signs Europe\" last week, that he thinks the chip shortage will last 18 months. \"It's not just autos. It's phones. It's the internet of everything. There's so many goods now that have many more chips than they ever did in the past,\" he said. \"They're all internet enabled.\"</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，Plurimi Investment Managers首席信息官帕特里克·阿姆斯特朗(Patrick Armstrong)上周向CNBC的“欧洲路标”节目表示，他认为芯片短缺将持续18个月。“不仅仅是汽车。还有手机。这是万物的互联网。现在有太多的商品比过去拥有更多的芯片，”他说。“它们都支持互联网。”</blockquote></p><p>The car industry has been affected by the global chip shortage more than any other sector.</p><p><blockquote>汽车行业受全球芯片短缺的影响比其他任何行业都大。</blockquote></p><p>The world's largest chip manufacturer, TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company), said earlier this month that it thinks it will be able to catch up with automotive demand by June. Armstrong, however, believes that's ambitious.</p><p><blockquote>全球最大的芯片制造商台积电（台积电公司）本月早些时候表示，它认为到6月份将能够赶上汽车需求。然而，阿姆斯特朗认为这是雄心勃勃的。</blockquote></p><p>\"If you listen to Ford, BMW, Volkswagen, they all highlighted that there's bottlenecks in capacity and they can't get the chips they need to manufacture the new cars,\" he said.</p><p><blockquote>“如果你听听福特、宝马、大众的意见，他们都强调产能存在瓶颈，他们无法获得制造新车所需的芯片，”他说。</blockquote></p><p>Elsewhere, Gartner said on Wednesday that the shortage will persist throughout 2021, adding that the shortage impacts all chip types and that chip prices are rising.</p><p><blockquote>在其他方面，Gartner周三表示，短缺将持续到2021年，并补充说，短缺影响到所有芯片类型，芯片价格正在上涨。</blockquote></p><p>Gartner analyst Alan Priestley told CNBC Thursday that the situation may improve for some sectors in the next six months, but that there may be a \"knock-on effect\" into 2022.</p><p><blockquote>Gartner分析师Alan Priestley周四对CNBC表示，未来六个月某些行业的情况可能会有所改善，但可能会对2022年产生“连锁反应”。</blockquote></p><p>\"It shouldn't go longer,\" he said. \"The industry is putting more capacity in place, but it does take time.\"</p><p><blockquote>“应该不会再持续了，”他说。“该行业正在增加产能，但这确实需要时间。”</blockquote></p><p>Indeed, Intel,announced in Marchthat it plans to spend $20 billion on two new chip factories in Arizona. Intel has also said it could build a plant in Europe if it gets public funding.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，英特尔在3月份宣布计划斥资200亿美元在亚利桑那州新建两家芯片工厂。英特尔还表示，如果获得公共资金，它可能会在欧洲建厂。</blockquote></p><p>\"That stuff is going take two or three years before we start to see that,\" said Priestley. \"But that's really looking to meet future demand.\"</p><p><blockquote>普里斯特利说：“我们需要两三年的时间才能看到这一点。”“但这确实是为了满足未来的需求。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Meanwhile, the chief executive of German chipmaker Infineon said last Tuesday that the semiconductor industry is in unchartered territory.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，德国芯片制造商英飞凌的首席执行官上周二表示，半导体行业正处于未知领域。</blockquote></p><p>Reinhard Ploss told CNBC's \"Street Signs Europe\" last week that it is \"very clear it will take time\" until supply and demand are rebalanced.</p><p><blockquote>赖因哈德·普洛斯(Reinhard Ploss)上周在CNBC的“欧洲路标”节目中表示，供需重新平衡“很明显需要时间”。</blockquote></p><p>\"I think two years is too long, but we will definitely see it reaching out to 2022,\" he said. \"I think additional capacity is going to come … I expect a more balanced situation in the next calendar year.\"</p><p><blockquote>“我认为两年太长了，但我们肯定会看到它延伸到2022年，”他说。“我认为额外的产能将会到来……我预计下一个日历年的情况会更加平衡。”</blockquote></p><p>Wenzhe Zhao, director of global economies and strategy at Credit Suisse, said in a note last Wednesday that the recent chip shortages have encouraged inventory hoarding along chip production chains, widening the gap between expanding demand and stagnant supply.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷全球经济和战略主管赵文哲上周三在一份报告中表示，最近的芯片短缺鼓励了芯片生产链上的库存囤积，扩大了不断扩大的需求和停滞的供应之间的差距。</blockquote></p><p>Zhao said that new semiconductor production capacity won't come online until 2022 or later, adding that little can be done to address today's shortage besides adjusting order books, production schedules, and prices.</p><p><blockquote>赵表示，新的半导体产能要到2022年或更晚才会上线，并补充说，除了调整订单、生产计划和价格外，几乎无法解决目前的短缺问题。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司","TSM":"台积电","INTC":"英特尔","NVDA":"英伟达","QCOM":"高通"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175479098","content_text":"(May 12) Semiconductor stocks fell, as Taiwan warns COVID alert level could rise.Taiwan reported its largest daily rise in domestic COVID-19 cases on Wednesday, while the stock market tanked after the health minister warned the island could move to a higher alert level, though he later clarified that step was not imminent.Early and effective prevention steps succeeded in shielding Taiwan from the worst of the pandemic, with just 1,231 infections reported so far.But markets have been on edge since renewed domestic outbreaks began late last month, with 16 new domestic cases announced on Wednesday setting a record daily high.Taiwan's benchmark stock index(.TWII)was down more than 8% at one point in a fall that accelerated as Health Minister Chen Shih-chung told parliament the alert level could be raised, potentially leading to strict new limits on gatherings and closure of non-essential businesses.Semiconductor stocks fell today.There's more demand for chips than there is supply right now, which has caused a chip shortage for everything from televisions to automobiles.Chip manufacturing took a hit from supply chain disruptions as the coronavirus pandemic took root around the world last year, forcing workers into lockdowns. Additionally, shifting consumer spending during the pandemic and rising tensions between the U.S. and China have disrupted the normal flow of chip production.While chipmakers are trying to ramp up production to meet demand, some analysts have suggested that the chip shortage could last for a couple of years. It's unclear how severe an ongoing chip shortage could be, but investors are already feeling the pressure.Qpinion: The global chip shortage could last until 2023Semiconductors will be in short supply for some time to come yet, according to analysts that monitor the industry.Today, chips are in everything from PlayStation 5s and toothbrushes to washing machines and alarm clocks. But there's not enough to go around — it's a multifaceted issue thatshows no signs of abating, leading some to call the current crisis \"chipageddon.\"Glenn O'Donnell, a vice president research director at advisory firm Forrester, believes the shortage could last until 2023.\"Because demand will remain high and supply will remain constrained, we expect this shortage to last through 2022 and into 2023,\" he wrote in ablog.O'Donnell expects demand for PCs, which contain some of the most advanced chips, to \"soften a bit\" in the coming year but \"not a lot.\"Meanwhile, he expects data centers, which are full of computer servers, to buy more chips in the next year after what he describes as a \"dismal 2020.\"\"Couple that with the unstoppable desire to instrument everything, along with continued growth in cloud computing and cryptocurrency mining, and we see nothing but boom times ahead for chip demand,\" said O'Donell.Meanwhile, Patrick Armstrong, CIO of Plurimi Investment Managers, told CNBC's \"Street Signs Europe\" last week, that he thinks the chip shortage will last 18 months. \"It's not just autos. It's phones. It's the internet of everything. There's so many goods now that have many more chips than they ever did in the past,\" he said. \"They're all internet enabled.\"The car industry has been affected by the global chip shortage more than any other sector.The world's largest chip manufacturer, TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company), said earlier this month that it thinks it will be able to catch up with automotive demand by June. Armstrong, however, believes that's ambitious.\"If you listen to Ford, BMW, Volkswagen, they all highlighted that there's bottlenecks in capacity and they can't get the chips they need to manufacture the new cars,\" he said.Elsewhere, Gartner said on Wednesday that the shortage will persist throughout 2021, adding that the shortage impacts all chip types and that chip prices are rising.Gartner analyst Alan Priestley told CNBC Thursday that the situation may improve for some sectors in the next six months, but that there may be a \"knock-on effect\" into 2022.\"It shouldn't go longer,\" he said. \"The industry is putting more capacity in place, but it does take time.\"Indeed, Intel,announced in Marchthat it plans to spend $20 billion on two new chip factories in Arizona. Intel has also said it could build a plant in Europe if it gets public funding.\"That stuff is going take two or three years before we start to see that,\" said Priestley. \"But that's really looking to meet future demand.\"Meanwhile, the chief executive of German chipmaker Infineon said last Tuesday that the semiconductor industry is in unchartered territory.Reinhard Ploss told CNBC's \"Street Signs Europe\" last week that it is \"very clear it will take time\" until supply and demand are rebalanced.\"I think two years is too long, but we will definitely see it reaching out to 2022,\" he said. \"I think additional capacity is going to come … I expect a more balanced situation in the next calendar year.\"Wenzhe Zhao, director of global economies and strategy at Credit Suisse, said in a note last Wednesday that the recent chip shortages have encouraged inventory hoarding along chip production chains, widening the gap between expanding demand and stagnant supply.Zhao said that new semiconductor production capacity won't come online until 2022 or later, adding that little can be done to address today's shortage besides adjusting order books, production schedules, and prices.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSM":0.9,"INTC":0.9,"QCOM":0.9,"AMD":0.9,"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":235,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171984254,"gmtCreate":1626702688878,"gmtModify":1633924810377,"author":{"id":"3582349066499647","authorId":"3582349066499647","name":"Huatcel","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6dc5ff854a615f554459ab92c2e24","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582349066499647","idStr":"3582349066499647"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment&nbsp;","listText":"Like and comment&nbsp;","text":"Like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171984254","repostId":"1146536243","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146536243","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626683272,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1146536243?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-19 16:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：本轮周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146536243","media":"zerohedge","summary":"This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","content":"<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为这个经济周期将是正常的、强劲的、短暂的。这些假设中的每一个都受到市场的激烈争论。每一项都是我们投资策略的关键。</blockquote></p><p> The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p><p><blockquote>关于周期“常态”的争论是不言自明的。毫不夸张地说，疫情造成了有记录以来最大幅度的产出下降。随后，在政策支持的帮助下，经济活动迅速回升。将这种情况视为独特的，不同于其他周期性经历的理由是，这种暴力的下跌和上涨从未允许传统的“重置”。</blockquote></p><p> But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p><p><blockquote>但市场中的“正常”是一个有趣的概念，记忆的粗糙边缘往往会随着时间的推移而变得光滑和抛光。2003-07年的周期以大萧条以来最大的银行和房地产危机结束。1992-2000年的周期以巨大的股票泡沫破裂、广泛的会计欺诈和难以言喻的悲剧而告终。“正常”周期在理论上很好，但在实践中更难。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p><p><blockquote>相反，让我们考虑一下为什么我们使用术语“周期”。经济和市场往往遵循周期性模式，这些模式往往会在市场表现中显现出来。我们关心的是那些模式，如果它们仍然适用，它们可以在不确定的地形中提供有用的指导。</blockquote></p><p> Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p><p><blockquote>去年的衰退之前是否存在收益率曲线倒挂、低波动性、低失业率、高消费者信心和股市广度收窄等周期后期条件？是的。由此产生的股票、信贷、收益率和收益率曲线的低谷是否符合市场和经济低点之间的通常节奏？他们做到了。随后反弹的领头羊是否是通常的早期周期赢家，如小型股和周期性股票、高收益信贷和工业金属？他们是。</blockquote></p><p> If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are.&nbsp;If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should&nbsp;<i>continue</i>&nbsp;to do so.</p><p><blockquote>如果它像鸭子一样走路，像鸭子一样嘎嘎叫，我们认为这是一个正常的循环。或者这些事情实际上是正常的。如果到目前为止已经发生了很多“正常”的循环行为，那么它应该<i>继续</i>这样做。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see&nbsp;The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，这与市场复苏时的表现模式有关。随着复苏的推进，这些模式应该会发生变化。正如我的同事迈克尔·威尔逊所指出的，我们认为我们正在进入周期中期市场，尽管距离经济活动低点仅16个月。我们看到当前状况与2004年上半年有许多相似之处，2004年上半年是大幅通货再膨胀反弹之后的周期中期。重要的是，尽管最近对增长感到担忧，但我们认为全球复苏将继续推进（见增长恐慌周年纪念，2021年7月11日）。</blockquote></p><p> Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p><p><blockquote>因为人们总能找到适合他们特定周期观点的指标，所以我们长期以来一直是综合指数的粉丝。这就是我们的“周期模型”，它结合了美国宏观、信贷周期和企业侵略性的十个指标，以衡量我们在市场周期中的位置。在2019年6月进入周期后期“低迷”和2020年4月进入周期早期“修复”后，该指数飙升。<b>它上升得如此之快，以至于已经过了下一个阶段（“复苏”），直接进入了“扩张”。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility:&nbsp;this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p><p><blockquote>这很不寻常。“扩张”意味着捕捉“比正常情况更好且正在改善”的条件，<b>自1980年以来，“低迷”结束后平均需要35个月才能实现这一目标</b>它的迅速到来表明，在巨大的政策支持下，经济正在迅速复苏。<b>这也暗示了另一种可能性：这个更热的周期可能会更短。</b>这是我们的论点，它体现在我们的定量测量中。</blockquote></p><p> All this has a number of implications:</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都有许多含义：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li>  <li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li>  <li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li>  <li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li> </ul> This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>周期越短，信贷相对于其他风险资产越差；信贷从“繁荣”中获得的收益较少，如果下一次衰退提前到来，信贷就会面临风险，并且随着企业信心的增强，信贷将面临更多的供应</b>在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国IG和HY Credit N1200万超额回报分别比平均水平差29个基点和161个基点。</li><li><b>在其中许多时期，尽管违约率仍然很低，但信贷表现却参差不齐</b>投资者应该尝试承担违约风险而不是利差风险：我们的信用策略师喜欢持有CDX HY 0-15%，并用CDX IG付款人利差进行对冲。</li><li><b>在股票方面，我们认为我们的模型支持投资组合更加平衡</b>我们看好美国和欧洲的医疗保健行业，因为该行业具有几个良好的因素：质量、低估值、高利差和低波动性。从全球来看，欧洲和日本的股市往往跑赢“中期周期”，我们认为它们可以再次这样做。</li><li><b>利率对复苏过于悲观。在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国10年期国债1200万奈拉回报率比平均水平低97个基点</b>.Guneet Dhingra和我们的美国利率策略团队在全球资产配置中转移了跑输大盘美国10年期国债，而我们反过来又转移了跑输大盘政府债券。</li></ul>这种循环是不寻常的。大多数“正常”周期都是。我们认为复苏是可持续的，而且更有可能“更热、更短”。出售国债并相信扩张。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：本轮周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：本轮周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-19 16:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为这个经济周期将是正常的、强劲的、短暂的。这些假设中的每一个都受到市场的激烈争论。每一项都是我们投资策略的关键。</blockquote></p><p> The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p><p><blockquote>关于周期“常态”的争论是不言自明的。毫不夸张地说，疫情造成了有记录以来最大幅度的产出下降。随后，在政策支持的帮助下，经济活动迅速回升。将这种情况视为独特的，不同于其他周期性经历的理由是，这种暴力的下跌和上涨从未允许传统的“重置”。</blockquote></p><p> But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p><p><blockquote>但市场中的“正常”是一个有趣的概念，记忆的粗糙边缘往往会随着时间的推移而变得光滑和抛光。2003-07年的周期以大萧条以来最大的银行和房地产危机结束。1992-2000年的周期以巨大的股票泡沫破裂、广泛的会计欺诈和难以言喻的悲剧而告终。“正常”周期在理论上很好，但在实践中更难。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p><p><blockquote>相反，让我们考虑一下为什么我们使用术语“周期”。经济和市场往往遵循周期性模式，这些模式往往会在市场表现中显现出来。我们关心的是那些模式，如果它们仍然适用，它们可以在不确定的地形中提供有用的指导。</blockquote></p><p> Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p><p><blockquote>去年的衰退之前是否存在收益率曲线倒挂、低波动性、低失业率、高消费者信心和股市广度收窄等周期后期条件？是的。由此产生的股票、信贷、收益率和收益率曲线的低谷是否符合市场和经济低点之间的通常节奏？他们做到了。随后反弹的领头羊是否是通常的早期周期赢家，如小型股和周期性股票、高收益信贷和工业金属？他们是。</blockquote></p><p> If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are.&nbsp;If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should&nbsp;<i>continue</i>&nbsp;to do so.</p><p><blockquote>如果它像鸭子一样走路，像鸭子一样嘎嘎叫，我们认为这是一个正常的循环。或者这些事情实际上是正常的。如果到目前为止已经发生了很多“正常”的循环行为，那么它应该<i>继续</i>这样做。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see&nbsp;The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，这与市场复苏时的表现模式有关。随着复苏的推进，这些模式应该会发生变化。正如我的同事迈克尔·威尔逊所指出的，我们认为我们正在进入周期中期市场，尽管距离经济活动低点仅16个月。我们看到当前状况与2004年上半年有许多相似之处，2004年上半年是大幅通货再膨胀反弹之后的周期中期。重要的是，尽管最近对增长感到担忧，但我们认为全球复苏将继续推进（见增长恐慌周年纪念，2021年7月11日）。</blockquote></p><p> Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p><p><blockquote>因为人们总能找到适合他们特定周期观点的指标，所以我们长期以来一直是综合指数的粉丝。这就是我们的“周期模型”，它结合了美国宏观、信贷周期和企业侵略性的十个指标，以衡量我们在市场周期中的位置。在2019年6月进入周期后期“低迷”和2020年4月进入周期早期“修复”后，该指数飙升。<b>它上升得如此之快，以至于已经过了下一个阶段（“复苏”），直接进入了“扩张”。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility:&nbsp;this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p><p><blockquote>这很不寻常。“扩张”意味着捕捉“比正常情况更好且正在改善”的条件，<b>自1980年以来，“低迷”结束后平均需要35个月才能实现这一目标</b>它的迅速到来表明，在巨大的政策支持下，经济正在迅速复苏。<b>这也暗示了另一种可能性：这个更热的周期可能会更短。</b>这是我们的论点，它体现在我们的定量测量中。</blockquote></p><p> All this has a number of implications:</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都有许多含义：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li>  <li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li>  <li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li>  <li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li> </ul> This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>周期越短，信贷相对于其他风险资产越差；信贷从“繁荣”中获得的收益较少，如果下一次衰退提前到来，信贷就会面临风险，并且随着企业信心的增强，信贷将面临更多的供应</b>在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国IG和HY Credit N1200万超额回报分别比平均水平差29个基点和161个基点。</li><li><b>在其中许多时期，尽管违约率仍然很低，但信贷表现却参差不齐</b>投资者应该尝试承担违约风险而不是利差风险：我们的信用策略师喜欢持有CDX HY 0-15%，并用CDX IG付款人利差进行对冲。</li><li><b>在股票方面，我们认为我们的模型支持投资组合更加平衡</b>我们看好美国和欧洲的医疗保健行业，因为该行业具有几个良好的因素：质量、低估值、高利差和低波动性。从全球来看，欧洲和日本的股市往往跑赢“中期周期”，我们认为它们可以再次这样做。</li><li><b>利率对复苏过于悲观。在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国10年期国债1200万奈拉回报率比平均水平低97个基点</b>.Guneet Dhingra和我们的美国利率策略团队在全球资产配置中转移了跑输大盘美国10年期国债，而我们反过来又转移了跑输大盘政府债券。</li></ul>这种循环是不寻常的。大多数“正常”周期都是。我们认为复苏是可持续的，而且更有可能“更热、更短”。出售国债并相信扩张。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146536243","content_text":"We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.\nThe debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.\nBut 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.\nInstead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.\nWas last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.\nIf it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are. If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should continue to do so.\nSpecifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).\nBecause one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.\nThisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.It also hints at another possibility: this hotter cycle could be shorter.This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.\nAll this has a number of implications:\n\nThe shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.\nIn many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.\nIn equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.\nInterest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.\n\nThis cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":172,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":110833791,"gmtCreate":1622436614813,"gmtModify":1634101471689,"author":{"id":"3582349066499647","authorId":"3582349066499647","name":"Huatcel","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6dc5ff854a615f554459ab92c2e24","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582349066499647","idStr":"3582349066499647"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment and like","listText":"Comment and like","text":"Comment and 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thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/101864661","repostId":"2132603015","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":173,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":100719425,"gmtCreate":1619650447067,"gmtModify":1634211130013,"author":{"id":"3582349066499647","authorId":"3582349066499647","name":"Huatcel","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6dc5ff854a615f554459ab92c2e24","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582349066499647","idStr":"3582349066499647"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi pls like my comment","listText":"Hi pls like my comment","text":"Hi pls like my comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/100719425","repostId":"1132578048","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":372,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":138557098,"gmtCreate":1621950892214,"gmtModify":1634185211092,"author":{"id":"3582349066499647","authorId":"3582349066499647","name":"Huatcel","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6dc5ff854a615f554459ab92c2e24","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582349066499647","idStr":"3582349066499647"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comments thanks","listText":"Like and comments thanks","text":"Like and comments thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/138557098","repostId":"1110261806","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1110261806","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1621950621,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1110261806?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-25 21:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla shares rose nearly 1%,after setting up China site to store data locally<blockquote>特斯拉股价上涨近1%，此前设立中国站点在本地存储数据</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1110261806","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Today Tesla shares rose nearly 1%,after setting up China site to store data locally.Tesla Inc said o","content":"<p>Today&nbsp;Tesla&nbsp;shares rose&nbsp;nearly 1%,after&nbsp;setting up China site to store data locally.</p><p><blockquote>今天，特斯拉股价上涨近1%，此前该公司设立了中国网站以在当地存储数据。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2de557c9be554d7bcaa7c01e96411100\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Tesla Inc said on Tuesday it had established a site in China to store car data locally, as automakers come under growing scrutiny over how they handle information collected by vehicle cameras and sensors.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉公司周二表示，该公司已在中国建立了一个网站，在中国本地存储汽车数据，因为汽车制造商在如何处理车载摄像头和传感器收集的信息方面受到越来越多的审查。</blockquote></p><p>Tesla said in a Weibo post that data generated by all cars it sells in China, where it is making Model 3 sedans and Model Y sport-utility vehicles, would be stored in the country.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉在微博中表示，其在中国销售的所有汽车生成的数据将存储在中国，该公司在中国生产Model 3轿车和Model Y运动型多功能车。</blockquote></p><p>China, the world's biggest car market and the second largest for Tesla, is drafting rules to ensure the security of data generated by connected vehicles as their growing popularity fuels concerns about privacy and national security.</p><p><blockquote>中国是全球最大的汽车市场，也是特斯拉的第二大市场，中国正在起草规则，以确保联网汽车产生的数据的安全，因为联网汽车越来越受欢迎，引发了人们对隐私和国家安全的担忧。</blockquote></p><p>Staff at some Chinese government offices have been told not to park their Tesla cars inside government compounds due to security concerns over vehicle cameras, two people with knowledge of the matter told Reuters last week.</p><p><blockquote>两名知情人士上周告诉路透社，出于对车载摄像头的安全担忧，一些中国政府办公室的工作人员被告知不要将特斯拉汽车停在政府大院内。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla shares rose nearly 1%,after setting up China site to store data locally<blockquote>特斯拉股价上涨近1%，此前设立中国站点在本地存储数据</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ 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left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla shares rose nearly 1%,after setting up China site to store data locally<blockquote>特斯拉股价上涨近1%，此前设立中国站点在本地存储数据</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-25 21:50</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Today&nbsp;Tesla&nbsp;shares rose&nbsp;nearly 1%,after&nbsp;setting up China site to store data locally.</p><p><blockquote>今天，特斯拉股价上涨近1%，此前该公司设立了中国网站以在当地存储数据。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2de557c9be554d7bcaa7c01e96411100\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Tesla Inc said on Tuesday it had established a site in China to store car data locally, as automakers come under growing scrutiny over how they handle information collected by vehicle cameras and sensors.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉公司周二表示，该公司已在中国建立了一个网站，在中国本地存储汽车数据，因为汽车制造商在如何处理车载摄像头和传感器收集的信息方面受到越来越多的审查。</blockquote></p><p>Tesla said in a Weibo post that data generated by all cars it sells in China, where it is making Model 3 sedans and Model Y sport-utility vehicles, would be stored in the country.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉在微博中表示，其在中国销售的所有汽车生成的数据将存储在中国，该公司在中国生产Model 3轿车和Model Y运动型多功能车。</blockquote></p><p>China, the world's biggest car market and the second largest for Tesla, is drafting rules to ensure the security of data generated by connected vehicles as their growing popularity fuels concerns about privacy and national security.</p><p><blockquote>中国是全球最大的汽车市场，也是特斯拉的第二大市场，中国正在起草规则，以确保联网汽车产生的数据的安全，因为联网汽车越来越受欢迎，引发了人们对隐私和国家安全的担忧。</blockquote></p><p>Staff at some Chinese government offices have been told not to park their Tesla cars inside government compounds due to security concerns over vehicle cameras, two people with knowledge of the matter told Reuters last week.</p><p><blockquote>两名知情人士上周告诉路透社，出于对车载摄像头的安全担忧，一些中国政府办公室的工作人员被告知不要将特斯拉汽车停在政府大院内。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1110261806","content_text":"Today Tesla shares rose nearly 1%,after setting up China site to store data locally.Tesla Inc said on Tuesday it had established a site in China to store car data locally, as automakers come under growing scrutiny over how they handle information collected by vehicle cameras and sensors.Tesla said in a Weibo post that data generated by all cars it sells in China, where it is making Model 3 sedans and Model Y sport-utility vehicles, would be stored in the country.China, the world's biggest car market and the second largest for Tesla, is drafting rules to ensure the security of data generated by connected vehicles as their growing popularity fuels concerns about privacy and national security.Staff at some Chinese government offices have been told not to park their Tesla cars inside government compounds due to security concerns over vehicle cameras, two people with knowledge of the matter told Reuters last week.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":391,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}