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2021-08-18

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2021-07-15

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2021-09-09

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Stock Futures Fall Ahead of Jobless Claims Data<blockquote>初请失业金数据公布前股指期货下跌</blockquote>

2021-09-12

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US IPO Week Ahead: The Fall IPO market kicks off with a 10 IPO week<blockquote>美国IPO周：秋季IPO市场以10周IPO拉开帷幕</blockquote>

2021-09-07

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2021-09-13

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2021-09-13

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2021-09-16

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2021-09-11

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2021-08-30

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Thank you!","listText":"Hi can someone help to like my comment? Thank you!","text":"Hi can someone help to like my comment? Thank you!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/885144309","repostId":"2167515516","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1775,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":882931402,"gmtCreate":1631638685506,"gmtModify":1631891234424,"author":{"id":"3582282988628365","authorId":"3582282988628365","name":"Biancaneve","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c690c91e593d663e5b2aa7fa7a45cead","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582282988628365","idStr":"3582282988628365"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please heLp to like mY commeNt. ThanK you!","listText":"Please heLp to like mY commeNt. ThanK you!","text":"Please heLp to like mY commeNt. ThanK you!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/882931402","repostId":"1149444561","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149444561","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1631637038,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1149444561?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-15 00:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Sportradar fell 0.83% on its first day of trading<blockquote>Sportradar上市首日跌0.83%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149444561","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Online betting company Sportradar opened at $27 each on Tuesday.\n\nEverything To Like About The Sport","content":"<p>Online betting company Sportradar opened at $27 each on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>在线博彩公司Sportradar周二开盘价为每股27美元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50aafa6b5817c8055173c9017ac900d2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"2240\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Everything To Like About The Sportradar IPO</p><p><blockquote>Sportradar IPO的一切值得喜欢的地方</blockquote></p><p> <b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Sportradar Group AG is preparing to go public at a valuation of $7.8 billion and will raise over $500 million.</li>  <li>Sportradar plays an important, though indirect role in the rapidly growing sports betting industry. However, it faces tough competition.</li>  <li>Sportradar’s finances are in good shape with high growth and a positive net profit, and its valuation appears low relative to competitors.</li>  <li>Investors should strongly consider this company when it goes public.</li> </ul> Sportradar (NASDAQ:SRAD) has released pricing information about its upcoming IPO.Renaissance Capitalreported on Tuesday that Sportradar “plans to raise $504 million by offering 19 million shares at a price range of $25 to $28,” as well as an additional $159 million concurrent private placement. This will give the Swiss company a valuation of $7.8 billion at the midpoint range.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Sportradar Group AG正准备以78亿美元的估值上市，并将筹集超过5亿美元。</li><li>Sportradar在快速增长的体育博彩行业中发挥着重要但间接的作用。然而，它面临着激烈的竞争。</li><li>Sportradar的财务状况良好，增长强劲，净利润为正，相对于竞争对手，其估值似乎较低。</li><li>当这家公司上市时，投资者应该强烈考虑它。</li></ul>Sportradar（纳斯达克股票代码：SRAD）发布了有关其即将进行的IPO的定价信息。Renaissance Capital周二报道称，Sportradar“计划通过以25至28美元的价格发行1900万股股票筹集5.04亿美元”，并额外筹集1.59亿美元同时私募。这将使这家瑞士公司的中值估值达到78亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> These numbers may be a tiny disappointment for Sportradar, as it had been reportedly shooting for a$10 billion valuationearlier in the year by undergoing a SPAC. But it is great news for investors, as there is a great deal to like about Sportradar. The sports company is in a market with major growth potential, is profitable, and has been growing rapidly. Concerns remain such as COVID and other competition, but investors should strongly consider getting in on this company as soon as possible especially compared to its main competitors.</p><p><blockquote>这些数字可能让Sportradar有点失望，因为据报道，该公司今年早些时候通过SPAC寻求100亿美元的估值。但这对投资者来说是个好消息，因为Sportradar有很多值得喜欢的地方。该体育公司处于一个具有巨大增长潜力的市场，是盈利的，并且一直在快速增长。新冠疫情和其他竞争等担忧仍然存在，但投资者应强烈考虑尽快进入这家公司，特别是与其主要竞争对手相比。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sports Gambling Market Potential</b></p><p><blockquote><b>体育博彩市场潜力</b></blockquote></p><p> Sports betting has become increasingly accepted and thus a more lucrative market in recent years, as governments have legalized it for the first time.Front Office Sportsreported in June that the US sports betting market could reach $37 billion by 2025 compared to its present value of $9.5 billion. Furthermore, the global sports betting market could reach as much as $144 billion by the same timeframe. And while there are some concerns due to COVID, it is highly unlikely that sports leagues will once again start canceling their events going forward.</p><p><blockquote>近年来，体育博彩越来越被接受，因此成为一个更有利可图的市场，因为政府首次将其合法化。Front Office Sports在6月份报告称，到2025年，美国体育博彩市场可能达到370亿美元，而其现值为95亿美元。此外，在同一时期，全球体育博彩市场可能达到1440亿美元。虽然由于COVID有一些担忧，但体育联盟不太可能再次开始取消他们的赛事。</blockquote></p><p> Sportradar’s plan is to be the company selling shovels in this betting gold rush. What it intends to sell is information. Sportradar works with sports leagues across the world to help compile sports data. This data helps betting companies set better odds, helps bettors know that the betting company is not making any mistakes, and helps media companies know that they have the right data.</p><p><blockquote>Sportradar的计划是成为这场博彩淘金热中销售铲子的公司。它打算出售的是信息。Sportradar与世界各地的体育联盟合作，帮助汇编体育数据。这些数据有助于博彩公司设定更好的赔率，有助于投注者知道博彩公司没有犯任何错误，也有助于媒体公司知道他们有正确的数据。</blockquote></p><p> The right data is not just about tracking points, home runs, or touchdowns. Sportradar claims in itsF-1/Athat it tracks “over 1.2 billion live data points per year from over 600,000 events in 37 sports,” which created over 21 billion odds changes. Furthermore, Sportradar has a strong data rights portfolio, as it has partnerships with the NBA, MLB, and NHL among other sports leagues across the world.</p><p><blockquote>正确的数据不仅仅是跟踪得分、本垒打或达阵。Sportradar在其F-1/A中声称，它跟踪“每年来自37项运动的60多万场赛事的超过12亿个实时数据点”，这创造了超过210亿次赔率变化。此外，Sportradar拥有强大的数据权利组合，因为它与NBA、MLB和NHL以及世界各地的其他体育联盟建立了合作伙伴关系。</blockquote></p><p> These factors point to a company with major growth potential, but then there is the issue of competition. Sportradar’s primary competitor is Genius Sports (NYSE:GENI), which went public this April. After some stumbles a few weeks back, Genius has performed well and has a market cap of $4.23 billion as of the time of writing. While smaller than what Sportradar is aiming for, Genius does have a prized partnership with the NFL and reported a revenue growth of 108% a few days ago perCNBC.</p><p><blockquote>这些因素指向一家具有重大增长潜力的公司，但接下来还有竞争问题。Sportradar的主要竞争对手是Genius Sports（纽约证券交易所股票代码：GENI），该公司于今年4月上市。在几周前经历了一些挫折之后，Genius表现良好，截至撰写本文时市值已达42.3亿美元。虽然规模小于Sportradar的目标，但Genius确实与NFL建立了宝贵的合作伙伴关系，并在几天前向CNBC报告了108%的收入增长。</blockquote></p><p> Sportradar will need to show how it can continue to distinguish itself from its competitors like Genius, as well as Stats Perform, IMGArena, and BetConstruct. But the company has a Dollar-Based Net Retention Rate of 138% which shows an ability to keep customers. Furthermore, the massive potential of the sports betting market means that Sportradar will be able to keep growing without having to poach from competitors.</p><p><blockquote>Sportradar需要展示如何继续将自己与Genius、Stats Perform、IMGArena和BetConstruct等竞争对手区分开来。但该公司以美元计算的净保留率为138%，这表明其有能力留住客户。此外，体育博彩市场的巨大潜力意味着Sportradar将能够保持增长，而不必从竞争对手那里挖走。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Finances and Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务及估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Sportradar’s growth potential is shown by its finances, where it is the rare tech company which can report both high growth and profitability. The company reported a revenue of $318 million in the first half of 2021, up 42% from the same time period last year. This is probably elevated due to the pandemic depressing 2020 revenue as it only grew 6% in 2020, but Sportradar reports a CAGR of 25% going back to 2016. That is a more reasonable yet still sufficient growth rate.</p><p><blockquote>Sportradar的增长潜力体现在其财务状况上，它是少有的同时实现高增长和盈利的科技公司。该公司报告2021年上半年营收为3.18亿美元，较去年同期增长42%。这一数字可能是由于疫情抑制了2020年收入，因为2020年收入仅增长了6%，但Sportradar报告称，自2016年以来，复合年增长率为25%。这是一个更合理但仍然足够的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, Sportradar reported a net income of over $20 million in the first half of 2021 and has a history of profitability going back to at least 2019. Cash flow is also positive, with a net gain of $67 million in cash from operating activities in the first half of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>此外，Sportradar报告2021年上半年净利润超过2000万美元，盈利历史至少可以追溯到2019年。现金流也为正，2021年上半年经营活动现金净收益6700万美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Finally, Sportradar reports having $223 million in cash against $967 million in total liabilities. What these numbers show is that Sportradar is rapidly growing, though admittedly not as fast as Genius Sports. But unlike Genius, Sportradar is larger and reports a profit.</p><p><blockquote>最后，Sportradar报告称其现金为2.23亿美元，总负债为9.67亿美元。这些数字表明，Sportradar正在快速增长，尽管不可否认不如Genius Sports快。但与Genius不同的是，Sportradar规模更大，并报告盈利。</blockquote></p><p> The next question thus becomes whether Sportradar is worth $7.8 billion. At that market cap, Sportradar has an enterprise value of about $8.5 billion. If we just extrapolate Sportradar’s revenue for the entire year and presume a revenue of $636 million, this gives an EV/revenue ratio of 13.36. By contrast, Genius Sports has an enterprise value of nearly $4 billion, and its first half 2021 revenue was just $109.5 million. From that metric, Sportradar thus appears to be the safer long-term bet.</p><p><blockquote>因此，下一个问题就变成了Sportradar是否值78亿美元。按此市值计算，Sportradar的企业价值约为85亿美元。如果我们只是推断Sportradar全年的收入并假设收入为6.36亿美元，则EV/收入比率为13.36。相比之下，Genius Sports的企业价值接近40亿美元，2021年上半年营收仅为1.095亿美元。因此，从这个指标来看，Sportradar似乎是更安全的长期选择。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> While there is a great deal to like about Sportradar, that does not suggest that there are no problematic clouds on the horizon. I believe that the current COVID situation, where many are reluctant to go outside but sports games are still ongoing, is an excellent situation for Sportradar as people watching from home are more likely to bet online. But if it worsens and sports events are canceled, that would be problematic. If it improves, people may start going for other entertainment options such as casinos which could hurt Sportradar’s growth.</p><p><blockquote>虽然Sportradar有很多值得喜欢的地方，但这并不意味着地平线上没有问题。我认为，目前的COVID情况，许多人不愿意出去，但体育比赛仍在进行，对Sportradar来说是一个极好的情况，因为在家观看比赛的人更有可能在网上下注。但如果情况恶化，体育赛事被取消，那就有问题了。如果情况有所改善，人们可能会开始转向其他娱乐选择，例如赌场，这可能会损害Sportradar的增长。</blockquote></p><p> But Sportradar has shown an ability to consistently grow and is in a market which has major potential almost regardless of the state of COVID. Its financial numbers are in solid shape, and few companies provide a product like what it offers. Finally, its valuation of $7.8 billion is eminently fair, especially by the standards of a typical tech company IPO.</p><p><blockquote>但Sportradar已经表现出持续增长的能力，并且无论COVID的状态如何，它所处的市场都具有巨大的潜力。它的财务数据稳健，很少有公司能提供像它这样的产品。最后，其78亿美元的估值非常公平，尤其是按照典型科技公司IPO的标准。</blockquote></p><p> Investors who chase growth above all else may want to consider Genius, especially as Genius’s lockup period expires soon and it is reasonable to expect a decrease in the price then. But for investors interested in a good tech IPO at a reasonable price, Sportradar will be an excellent fit for most.</p><p><blockquote>追求增长高于一切的投资者可能会考虑Genius，尤其是Genius的禁售期即将到期，预计届时价格会下跌是合理的。但对于对以合理价格进行优质科技IPO感兴趣的投资者来说，Sportradar将是大多数人的绝佳选择。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sportradar fell 0.83% on its first day of trading<blockquote>Sportradar上市首日跌0.83%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSportradar fell 0.83% on its first day of trading<blockquote>Sportradar上市首日跌0.83%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-15 00:30</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Online betting company Sportradar opened at $27 each on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>在线博彩公司Sportradar周二开盘价为每股27美元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50aafa6b5817c8055173c9017ac900d2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"2240\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Everything To Like About The Sportradar IPO</p><p><blockquote>Sportradar IPO的一切值得喜欢的地方</blockquote></p><p> <b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Sportradar Group AG is preparing to go public at a valuation of $7.8 billion and will raise over $500 million.</li>  <li>Sportradar plays an important, though indirect role in the rapidly growing sports betting industry. However, it faces tough competition.</li>  <li>Sportradar’s finances are in good shape with high growth and a positive net profit, and its valuation appears low relative to competitors.</li>  <li>Investors should strongly consider this company when it goes public.</li> </ul> Sportradar (NASDAQ:SRAD) has released pricing information about its upcoming IPO.Renaissance Capitalreported on Tuesday that Sportradar “plans to raise $504 million by offering 19 million shares at a price range of $25 to $28,” as well as an additional $159 million concurrent private placement. This will give the Swiss company a valuation of $7.8 billion at the midpoint range.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Sportradar Group AG正准备以78亿美元的估值上市，并将筹集超过5亿美元。</li><li>Sportradar在快速增长的体育博彩行业中发挥着重要但间接的作用。然而，它面临着激烈的竞争。</li><li>Sportradar的财务状况良好，增长强劲，净利润为正，相对于竞争对手，其估值似乎较低。</li><li>当这家公司上市时，投资者应该强烈考虑它。</li></ul>Sportradar（纳斯达克股票代码：SRAD）发布了有关其即将进行的IPO的定价信息。Renaissance Capital周二报道称，Sportradar“计划通过以25至28美元的价格发行1900万股股票筹集5.04亿美元”，并额外筹集1.59亿美元同时私募。这将使这家瑞士公司的中值估值达到78亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> These numbers may be a tiny disappointment for Sportradar, as it had been reportedly shooting for a$10 billion valuationearlier in the year by undergoing a SPAC. But it is great news for investors, as there is a great deal to like about Sportradar. The sports company is in a market with major growth potential, is profitable, and has been growing rapidly. Concerns remain such as COVID and other competition, but investors should strongly consider getting in on this company as soon as possible especially compared to its main competitors.</p><p><blockquote>这些数字可能让Sportradar有点失望，因为据报道，该公司今年早些时候通过SPAC寻求100亿美元的估值。但这对投资者来说是个好消息，因为Sportradar有很多值得喜欢的地方。该体育公司处于一个具有巨大增长潜力的市场，是盈利的，并且一直在快速增长。新冠疫情和其他竞争等担忧仍然存在，但投资者应强烈考虑尽快进入这家公司，特别是与其主要竞争对手相比。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sports Gambling Market Potential</b></p><p><blockquote><b>体育博彩市场潜力</b></blockquote></p><p> Sports betting has become increasingly accepted and thus a more lucrative market in recent years, as governments have legalized it for the first time.Front Office Sportsreported in June that the US sports betting market could reach $37 billion by 2025 compared to its present value of $9.5 billion. Furthermore, the global sports betting market could reach as much as $144 billion by the same timeframe. And while there are some concerns due to COVID, it is highly unlikely that sports leagues will once again start canceling their events going forward.</p><p><blockquote>近年来，体育博彩越来越被接受，因此成为一个更有利可图的市场，因为政府首次将其合法化。Front Office Sports在6月份报告称，到2025年，美国体育博彩市场可能达到370亿美元，而其现值为95亿美元。此外，在同一时期，全球体育博彩市场可能达到1440亿美元。虽然由于COVID有一些担忧，但体育联盟不太可能再次开始取消他们的赛事。</blockquote></p><p> Sportradar’s plan is to be the company selling shovels in this betting gold rush. What it intends to sell is information. Sportradar works with sports leagues across the world to help compile sports data. This data helps betting companies set better odds, helps bettors know that the betting company is not making any mistakes, and helps media companies know that they have the right data.</p><p><blockquote>Sportradar的计划是成为这场博彩淘金热中销售铲子的公司。它打算出售的是信息。Sportradar与世界各地的体育联盟合作，帮助汇编体育数据。这些数据有助于博彩公司设定更好的赔率，有助于投注者知道博彩公司没有犯任何错误，也有助于媒体公司知道他们有正确的数据。</blockquote></p><p> The right data is not just about tracking points, home runs, or touchdowns. Sportradar claims in itsF-1/Athat it tracks “over 1.2 billion live data points per year from over 600,000 events in 37 sports,” which created over 21 billion odds changes. Furthermore, Sportradar has a strong data rights portfolio, as it has partnerships with the NBA, MLB, and NHL among other sports leagues across the world.</p><p><blockquote>正确的数据不仅仅是跟踪得分、本垒打或达阵。Sportradar在其F-1/A中声称，它跟踪“每年来自37项运动的60多万场赛事的超过12亿个实时数据点”，这创造了超过210亿次赔率变化。此外，Sportradar拥有强大的数据权利组合，因为它与NBA、MLB和NHL以及世界各地的其他体育联盟建立了合作伙伴关系。</blockquote></p><p> These factors point to a company with major growth potential, but then there is the issue of competition. Sportradar’s primary competitor is Genius Sports (NYSE:GENI), which went public this April. After some stumbles a few weeks back, Genius has performed well and has a market cap of $4.23 billion as of the time of writing. While smaller than what Sportradar is aiming for, Genius does have a prized partnership with the NFL and reported a revenue growth of 108% a few days ago perCNBC.</p><p><blockquote>这些因素指向一家具有重大增长潜力的公司，但接下来还有竞争问题。Sportradar的主要竞争对手是Genius Sports（纽约证券交易所股票代码：GENI），该公司于今年4月上市。在几周前经历了一些挫折之后，Genius表现良好，截至撰写本文时市值已达42.3亿美元。虽然规模小于Sportradar的目标，但Genius确实与NFL建立了宝贵的合作伙伴关系，并在几天前向CNBC报告了108%的收入增长。</blockquote></p><p> Sportradar will need to show how it can continue to distinguish itself from its competitors like Genius, as well as Stats Perform, IMGArena, and BetConstruct. But the company has a Dollar-Based Net Retention Rate of 138% which shows an ability to keep customers. Furthermore, the massive potential of the sports betting market means that Sportradar will be able to keep growing without having to poach from competitors.</p><p><blockquote>Sportradar需要展示如何继续将自己与Genius、Stats Perform、IMGArena和BetConstruct等竞争对手区分开来。但该公司以美元计算的净保留率为138%，这表明其有能力留住客户。此外，体育博彩市场的巨大潜力意味着Sportradar将能够保持增长，而不必从竞争对手那里挖走。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Finances and Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务及估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Sportradar’s growth potential is shown by its finances, where it is the rare tech company which can report both high growth and profitability. The company reported a revenue of $318 million in the first half of 2021, up 42% from the same time period last year. This is probably elevated due to the pandemic depressing 2020 revenue as it only grew 6% in 2020, but Sportradar reports a CAGR of 25% going back to 2016. That is a more reasonable yet still sufficient growth rate.</p><p><blockquote>Sportradar的增长潜力体现在其财务状况上，它是少有的同时实现高增长和盈利的科技公司。该公司报告2021年上半年营收为3.18亿美元，较去年同期增长42%。这一数字可能是由于疫情抑制了2020年收入，因为2020年收入仅增长了6%，但Sportradar报告称，自2016年以来，复合年增长率为25%。这是一个更合理但仍然足够的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, Sportradar reported a net income of over $20 million in the first half of 2021 and has a history of profitability going back to at least 2019. Cash flow is also positive, with a net gain of $67 million in cash from operating activities in the first half of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>此外，Sportradar报告2021年上半年净利润超过2000万美元，盈利历史至少可以追溯到2019年。现金流也为正，2021年上半年经营活动现金净收益6700万美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Finally, Sportradar reports having $223 million in cash against $967 million in total liabilities. What these numbers show is that Sportradar is rapidly growing, though admittedly not as fast as Genius Sports. But unlike Genius, Sportradar is larger and reports a profit.</p><p><blockquote>最后，Sportradar报告称其现金为2.23亿美元，总负债为9.67亿美元。这些数字表明，Sportradar正在快速增长，尽管不可否认不如Genius Sports快。但与Genius不同的是，Sportradar规模更大，并报告盈利。</blockquote></p><p> The next question thus becomes whether Sportradar is worth $7.8 billion. At that market cap, Sportradar has an enterprise value of about $8.5 billion. If we just extrapolate Sportradar’s revenue for the entire year and presume a revenue of $636 million, this gives an EV/revenue ratio of 13.36. By contrast, Genius Sports has an enterprise value of nearly $4 billion, and its first half 2021 revenue was just $109.5 million. From that metric, Sportradar thus appears to be the safer long-term bet.</p><p><blockquote>因此，下一个问题就变成了Sportradar是否值78亿美元。按此市值计算，Sportradar的企业价值约为85亿美元。如果我们只是推断Sportradar全年的收入并假设收入为6.36亿美元，则EV/收入比率为13.36。相比之下，Genius Sports的企业价值接近40亿美元，2021年上半年营收仅为1.095亿美元。因此，从这个指标来看，Sportradar似乎是更安全的长期选择。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> While there is a great deal to like about Sportradar, that does not suggest that there are no problematic clouds on the horizon. I believe that the current COVID situation, where many are reluctant to go outside but sports games are still ongoing, is an excellent situation for Sportradar as people watching from home are more likely to bet online. But if it worsens and sports events are canceled, that would be problematic. If it improves, people may start going for other entertainment options such as casinos which could hurt Sportradar’s growth.</p><p><blockquote>虽然Sportradar有很多值得喜欢的地方，但这并不意味着地平线上没有问题。我认为，目前的COVID情况，许多人不愿意出去，但体育比赛仍在进行，对Sportradar来说是一个极好的情况，因为在家观看比赛的人更有可能在网上下注。但如果情况恶化，体育赛事被取消，那就有问题了。如果情况有所改善，人们可能会开始转向其他娱乐选择，例如赌场，这可能会损害Sportradar的增长。</blockquote></p><p> But Sportradar has shown an ability to consistently grow and is in a market which has major potential almost regardless of the state of COVID. Its financial numbers are in solid shape, and few companies provide a product like what it offers. Finally, its valuation of $7.8 billion is eminently fair, especially by the standards of a typical tech company IPO.</p><p><blockquote>但Sportradar已经表现出持续增长的能力，并且无论COVID的状态如何，它所处的市场都具有巨大的潜力。它的财务数据稳健，很少有公司能提供像它这样的产品。最后，其78亿美元的估值非常公平，尤其是按照典型科技公司IPO的标准。</blockquote></p><p> Investors who chase growth above all else may want to consider Genius, especially as Genius’s lockup period expires soon and it is reasonable to expect a decrease in the price then. But for investors interested in a good tech IPO at a reasonable price, Sportradar will be an excellent fit for most.</p><p><blockquote>追求增长高于一切的投资者可能会考虑Genius，尤其是Genius的禁售期即将到期，预计届时价格会下跌是合理的。但对于对以合理价格进行优质科技IPO感兴趣的投资者来说，Sportradar将是大多数人的绝佳选择。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SRAD":"Sportradar Group AG"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149444561","content_text":"Online betting company Sportradar opened at $27 each on Tuesday.\n\nEverything To Like About The Sportradar IPO\nSummary\n\nSportradar Group AG is preparing to go public at a valuation of $7.8 billion and will raise over $500 million.\nSportradar plays an important, though indirect role in the rapidly growing sports betting industry. However, it faces tough competition.\nSportradar’s finances are in good shape with high growth and a positive net profit, and its valuation appears low relative to competitors.\nInvestors should strongly consider this company when it goes public.\n\nSportradar (NASDAQ:SRAD) has released pricing information about its upcoming IPO.Renaissance Capitalreported on Tuesday that Sportradar “plans to raise $504 million by offering 19 million shares at a price range of $25 to $28,” as well as an additional $159 million concurrent private placement. This will give the Swiss company a valuation of $7.8 billion at the midpoint range.\nThese numbers may be a tiny disappointment for Sportradar, as it had been reportedly shooting for a$10 billion valuationearlier in the year by undergoing a SPAC. But it is great news for investors, as there is a great deal to like about Sportradar. The sports company is in a market with major growth potential, is profitable, and has been growing rapidly. Concerns remain such as COVID and other competition, but investors should strongly consider getting in on this company as soon as possible especially compared to its main competitors.\nSports Gambling Market Potential\nSports betting has become increasingly accepted and thus a more lucrative market in recent years, as governments have legalized it for the first time.Front Office Sportsreported in June that the US sports betting market could reach $37 billion by 2025 compared to its present value of $9.5 billion. Furthermore, the global sports betting market could reach as much as $144 billion by the same timeframe. And while there are some concerns due to COVID, it is highly unlikely that sports leagues will once again start canceling their events going forward.\nSportradar’s plan is to be the company selling shovels in this betting gold rush. What it intends to sell is information. Sportradar works with sports leagues across the world to help compile sports data. This data helps betting companies set better odds, helps bettors know that the betting company is not making any mistakes, and helps media companies know that they have the right data.\nThe right data is not just about tracking points, home runs, or touchdowns. Sportradar claims in itsF-1/Athat it tracks “over 1.2 billion live data points per year from over 600,000 events in 37 sports,” which created over 21 billion odds changes. Furthermore, Sportradar has a strong data rights portfolio, as it has partnerships with the NBA, MLB, and NHL among other sports leagues across the world.\nThese factors point to a company with major growth potential, but then there is the issue of competition. Sportradar’s primary competitor is Genius Sports (NYSE:GENI), which went public this April. After some stumbles a few weeks back, Genius has performed well and has a market cap of $4.23 billion as of the time of writing. While smaller than what Sportradar is aiming for, Genius does have a prized partnership with the NFL and reported a revenue growth of 108% a few days ago perCNBC.\nSportradar will need to show how it can continue to distinguish itself from its competitors like Genius, as well as Stats Perform, IMGArena, and BetConstruct. But the company has a Dollar-Based Net Retention Rate of 138% which shows an ability to keep customers. Furthermore, the massive potential of the sports betting market means that Sportradar will be able to keep growing without having to poach from competitors.\nFinances and Valuation\nSportradar’s growth potential is shown by its finances, where it is the rare tech company which can report both high growth and profitability. The company reported a revenue of $318 million in the first half of 2021, up 42% from the same time period last year. This is probably elevated due to the pandemic depressing 2020 revenue as it only grew 6% in 2020, but Sportradar reports a CAGR of 25% going back to 2016. That is a more reasonable yet still sufficient growth rate.\nFurthermore, Sportradar reported a net income of over $20 million in the first half of 2021 and has a history of profitability going back to at least 2019. Cash flow is also positive, with a net gain of $67 million in cash from operating activities in the first half of 2021.\nFinally, Sportradar reports having $223 million in cash against $967 million in total liabilities. What these numbers show is that Sportradar is rapidly growing, though admittedly not as fast as Genius Sports. But unlike Genius, Sportradar is larger and reports a profit.\n\nThe next question thus becomes whether Sportradar is worth $7.8 billion. At that market cap, Sportradar has an enterprise value of about $8.5 billion. If we just extrapolate Sportradar’s revenue for the entire year and presume a revenue of $636 million, this gives an EV/revenue ratio of 13.36. By contrast, Genius Sports has an enterprise value of nearly $4 billion, and its first half 2021 revenue was just $109.5 million. From that metric, Sportradar thus appears to be the safer long-term bet.\nFinal Thoughts\nWhile there is a great deal to like about Sportradar, that does not suggest that there are no problematic clouds on the horizon. I believe that the current COVID situation, where many are reluctant to go outside but sports games are still ongoing, is an excellent situation for Sportradar as people watching from home are more likely to bet online. But if it worsens and sports events are canceled, that would be problematic. If it improves, people may start going for other entertainment options such as casinos which could hurt Sportradar’s growth.\nBut Sportradar has shown an ability to consistently grow and is in a market which has major potential almost regardless of the state of COVID. Its financial numbers are in solid shape, and few companies provide a product like what it offers. Finally, its valuation of $7.8 billion is eminently fair, especially by the standards of a typical tech company IPO.\nInvestors who chase growth above all else may want to consider Genius, especially as Genius’s lockup period expires soon and it is reasonable to expect a decrease in the price then. But for investors interested in a good tech IPO at a reasonable price, Sportradar will be an excellent fit for most.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SRAD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1035,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":888535388,"gmtCreate":1631506063744,"gmtModify":1631891234429,"author":{"id":"3582282988628365","authorId":"3582282988628365","name":"Biancaneve","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c690c91e593d663e5b2aa7fa7a45cead","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582282988628365","idStr":"3582282988628365"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi can someone help me to like my comment? Thank you!","listText":"Hi can someone help me to like my comment? Thank you!","text":"Hi can someone help me to like my comment? Thank you!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/888535388","repostId":"1108703048","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3380,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":888532207,"gmtCreate":1631506016909,"gmtModify":1631891234433,"author":{"id":"3582282988628365","authorId":"3582282988628365","name":"Biancaneve","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c690c91e593d663e5b2aa7fa7a45cead","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582282988628365","idStr":"3582282988628365"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi can someone help me to like my comment? Thank you!","listText":"Hi can someone help me to like my comment? Thank you!","text":"Hi can someone help me to like my comment? Thank you!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/888532207","repostId":"1191352294","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1829,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":888532809,"gmtCreate":1631505981601,"gmtModify":1631891234435,"author":{"id":"3582282988628365","authorId":"3582282988628365","name":"Biancaneve","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c690c91e593d663e5b2aa7fa7a45cead","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582282988628365","idStr":"3582282988628365"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi can someone help me to like my comment? Thank you","listText":"Hi can someone help me to like my comment? Thank you","text":"Hi can someone help me to like my comment? Thank you","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/888532809","repostId":"1191352294","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1327,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":888985360,"gmtCreate":1631422485250,"gmtModify":1631891234438,"author":{"id":"3582282988628365","authorId":"3582282988628365","name":"Biancaneve","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c690c91e593d663e5b2aa7fa7a45cead","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582282988628365","idStr":"3582282988628365"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi someone pls help me to like my comment. Thank you 😄","listText":"Hi someone pls help me to like my comment. Thank you 😄","text":"Hi someone pls help me to like my comment. Thank you 😄","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/888985360","repostId":"1189654544","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1189654544","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631406130,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1189654544?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-12 08:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US IPO Week Ahead: The Fall IPO market kicks off with a 10 IPO week<blockquote>美国IPO周：秋季IPO市场以10周IPO拉开帷幕</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189654544","media":"Renaissance Capital","summary":"After a wave of launches in the short holiday week, 10 IPOs are scheduled to raise over $3 billion i","content":"<p>After a wave of launches in the short holiday week, 10 IPOs are scheduled to raise over $3 billion in the week ahead.</p><p><blockquote>在短暂的假期周经历了一波发行之后，未来一周将有10起IPO计划筹集超过30亿美元的资金。</blockquote></p><p> Tech consultancy&nbsp;<b>Thoughtworks</b>(TWKS) plans to raise $700 million at a $6.3 billion market cap. This agile software developer provides premium, end-to-end digital strategy, design, and engineering services to more than 300 enterprise customers. The company grew revenue at a 14% CAGR from 2017 to 2020, and expanded margins in 2020 and the 1H21.</p><p><blockquote>技术咨询<b>Thoughtworks</b>(TWKS)计划以63亿美元的市值筹集7亿美元。这家敏捷软件开发商为300多家企业客户提供优质的端到端数字战略、设计和工程服务。从2017年到2020年，该公司的收入复合年增长率为14%，并在2020年和2021年上半年扩大了利润率。</blockquote></p><p> Swiss running shoe brand&nbsp;<b>On Holding</b>(ONON) plans to raise $591 million at a $5.9 billion market cap. On is a global provider of premium athletic footwear, apparel, and accessories that are designed using sustainable materials and its proprietary technology. The company has demonstrated growth and profitability, though it faces significant competition from other well-known sportswear brands.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士跑鞋品牌<b>持有时</b>(ONON)计划以59亿美元的市值筹集5.91亿美元。On是一家全球优质运动鞋、服装和配饰供应商，采用可持续材料及其专有技术设计。尽管面临来自其他知名运动服装品牌的激烈竞争，但该公司已展现出增长和盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p> After ending talks to go public via SPAC,<b>Sportradar Group</b>(SRAD) plans to raise $504 million at a $7.9 billion market cap. Covering over 750,000 events annually across 83 sports, this Swiss company provides software, data, and content to sports leagues, betting operators, and media companies. Sportradar is profitable, and growth accelerated in the 1H21 as live sports resumed.</p><p><blockquote>在结束通过SPAC上市的谈判后，<b>Sportradar集团</b>(SRAD)计划以79亿美元的市值筹集5.04亿美元。这家瑞士公司每年报道83项运动的750,000多场赛事，为体育联盟、博彩运营商和媒体公司提供软件、数据和内容。Sportradar已实现盈利，随着体育直播的恢复，2021年上半年增长加速。</blockquote></p><p> Drive-thru coffee chain&nbsp;<b>Dutch Bros</b>(BROS) plans to raise $400 million at a $3.3 billion market cap. This Oregon-based company has a chain of 471 drive-thru coffee shops in the Western US, and it has been able to maintain a track record of same-store sales growth as it has expanded to new states. Insiders received pre-IPO dividends and will sell shares back to the company.</p><p><blockquote>得来速咖啡连锁店<b>荷兰兄弟</b>(BROS)计划以33亿美元的市值筹集4亿美元。这家总部位于俄勒冈州的公司在美国西部拥有471家得来速咖啡店连锁店，随着业务扩展到新州，它一直能够保持同店销售增长的记录。内部人士收到了IPO前的股息，并将把股票卖回给公司。</blockquote></p><p> Healthcare intelligence platform&nbsp;<b>Definitive Healthcare</b>(DH) plans to raise $350 million at a $3.3 billion market cap. This company provides a healthcare commercial intelligence and analytics platform, helping its customers to analyze, navigate, and sell into the complex healthcare ecosystem. Unprofitable with strong growth, Definitive Healthcare will be leveraged post-IPO.</p><p><blockquote>医疗智能平台<b>权威医疗保健</b>(DH)计划以33亿美元的市值筹集3.5亿美元。该公司提供医疗保健商业智能和分析平台，帮助其客户分析、导航和销售复杂的医疗保健生态系统。由于增长强劲，Definitive Healthcare尚未盈利，但将在IPO后进行杠杆化。</blockquote></p><p> Identity management platform&nbsp;<b>ForgeRock</b>(FORG) plans to raise $248 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. The company provides identity and access management software, with a platform to provision, authenticate, and govern all types of digital identities. Unprofitable with high sales and marketing expenses, ForgeRock is a leading next-gen provider in the multi-billion-dollar identity and access market.</p><p><blockquote>身份管理平台<b>ForgeRock</b>(FORG)计划以21亿美元的市值筹集2.48亿美元。该公司提供身份和访问管理软件，以及一个提供、认证和管理所有类型数字身份的平台。由于销售和营销费用高昂，ForgeRock无利可图，是价值数十亿美元的身份和访问市场中领先的下一代提供商。</blockquote></p><p> Immunology biotech&nbsp;<b>DICE Therapeutics</b>(DICE) plans to raise $160 million at a $550 million market cap. This biotech is developing oral small molecule therapies to treat chronic diseases in immunology and other therapeutic areas. DICE plans to initiate a Phase 1 trial of its lead candidate S011806, an oral antagonist with a variety of immunology indications.</p><p><blockquote>免疫学生物技术<b>骰子疗法</b>(DICE)计划以5.5亿美元的市值筹集1.6亿美元。这家生物技术公司正在开发口服小分子疗法，以治疗免疫学和其他治疗领域的慢性疾病。DICE计划启动其主要候选药物S011806的1期试验，这是一种具有多种免疫学适应症的口服拮抗剂。</blockquote></p><p> Surgical robotics developer&nbsp;<b>PROCEPT BioRobotics</b>(PRCT) plans to raise $127 million at a $1.1 billion market cap. This commercial-stage company develops surgical robotic systems for minimally-invasive urologic surgery with an initial focus on treating benign prostatic hyperplasia. PROCEPT BioRobotics is highly unprofitable and saw revenue increase more than sixfold in the 1H21.</p><p><blockquote>手术机器人开发商<b>PROCEPT生物机器人</b>(PRCT)计划以11亿美元的市值筹集1.27亿美元。这家商业阶段的公司开发用于微创泌尿外科手术的手术机器人系统，最初的重点是治疗良性前列腺增生。PROCEPT BioRobotics非常无利可图，2021年上半年收入增长了六倍多。</blockquote></p><p> Oncology biotech&nbsp;<b>Tyra Biosciences</b>(TYRA) plans to raise $101 million at a $584 million market cap. This preclinical biotech is developing FGFR kinase inhibitors for cancer, specifically solid tumors. Tyra’s lead candidate is initially focused on bladder cancer, and the company expects to submit an IND for it in mid-2022.</p><p><blockquote>肿瘤生物技术<b>泰拉生物科学公司</b>(TYRA)计划以5.84亿美元的市值筹集1.01亿美元。这家临床前生物技术公司正在开发用于癌症，特别是实体瘤的FGFR激酶抑制剂。Tyra的主要候选药物最初专注于膀胱癌，该公司预计将于2022年中期提交IND。</blockquote></p><p> Micro-cap gas delivery service&nbsp;<b>EzFill Holdings</b>(EZFL) plans to raise $25 million at a $104 million market cap. This mobile-fueling company provides an on-demand fuel delivery service in Florida via mobile app. Highly unprofitable with explosive growth, EzFill states that it is the dominant player in the South Florida market.</p><p><blockquote>微帽气体输送服务<b>埃兹菲尔控股</b>(EZFL)计划以1.04亿美元的市值筹集2500万美元。这家移动加油公司通过移动应用程序在佛罗里达州提供按需加油服务。由于爆炸性增长，EzFill表示，它是南佛罗里达州市场的主导者。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/718698ff98644c4026f32efe91d076c6\" tg-width=\"1128\" tg-height=\"684\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97fe13300d9e4cf61effc59b9706776a\" tg-width=\"1129\" tg-height=\"247\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>IPO Market Snapshot</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IPO市场快照</b></blockquote></p><p> The Renaissance IPO Indices are market cap weighted baskets of newly public companies. As of 9/9/21, the Renaissance IPO Index was up 7.7% year-to-date, while the S&amp;P 500 was up 19.6%. Renaissance Capital's IPO ETF (NYSE: IPO) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Snowflake (SNOW) and Palantir Technologies (PLTR). The Renaissance International IPO Index was down 11.0% year-to-date, while the ACWX was up 10.0%. Renaissance Capital’s International IPO ETF (NYSE: IPOS) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Smoore International and EQT Partners.</p><p><blockquote>文艺复兴IPO指数是新上市公司的市值加权篮子。截至9/9/21，文艺复兴IPO指数今年迄今上涨了7.7%，而标普500上涨了19.6%。Renaissance Capital的IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPO）跟踪该指数，持有的顶级ETF包括Snowflake（SNOW）和Palantir Technologies（PLTR）。Renaissance International IPO指数今年迄今下跌11.0%，而ACWX指数上涨10.0%。Renaissance Capital的国际IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPOS）跟踪该指数，持有的顶级ETF包括思摩尔国际和殷拓合伙人。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603787993745","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US IPO Week Ahead: The Fall IPO market kicks off with a 10 IPO week<blockquote>美国IPO周：秋季IPO市场以10周IPO拉开帷幕</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS IPO Week Ahead: The Fall IPO market kicks off with a 10 IPO week<blockquote>美国IPO周：秋季IPO市场以10周IPO拉开帷幕</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Renaissance Capital</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-12 08:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>After a wave of launches in the short holiday week, 10 IPOs are scheduled to raise over $3 billion in the week ahead.</p><p><blockquote>在短暂的假期周经历了一波发行之后，未来一周将有10起IPO计划筹集超过30亿美元的资金。</blockquote></p><p> Tech consultancy&nbsp;<b>Thoughtworks</b>(TWKS) plans to raise $700 million at a $6.3 billion market cap. This agile software developer provides premium, end-to-end digital strategy, design, and engineering services to more than 300 enterprise customers. The company grew revenue at a 14% CAGR from 2017 to 2020, and expanded margins in 2020 and the 1H21.</p><p><blockquote>技术咨询<b>Thoughtworks</b>(TWKS)计划以63亿美元的市值筹集7亿美元。这家敏捷软件开发商为300多家企业客户提供优质的端到端数字战略、设计和工程服务。从2017年到2020年，该公司的收入复合年增长率为14%，并在2020年和2021年上半年扩大了利润率。</blockquote></p><p> Swiss running shoe brand&nbsp;<b>On Holding</b>(ONON) plans to raise $591 million at a $5.9 billion market cap. On is a global provider of premium athletic footwear, apparel, and accessories that are designed using sustainable materials and its proprietary technology. The company has demonstrated growth and profitability, though it faces significant competition from other well-known sportswear brands.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士跑鞋品牌<b>持有时</b>(ONON)计划以59亿美元的市值筹集5.91亿美元。On是一家全球优质运动鞋、服装和配饰供应商，采用可持续材料及其专有技术设计。尽管面临来自其他知名运动服装品牌的激烈竞争，但该公司已展现出增长和盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p> After ending talks to go public via SPAC,<b>Sportradar Group</b>(SRAD) plans to raise $504 million at a $7.9 billion market cap. Covering over 750,000 events annually across 83 sports, this Swiss company provides software, data, and content to sports leagues, betting operators, and media companies. Sportradar is profitable, and growth accelerated in the 1H21 as live sports resumed.</p><p><blockquote>在结束通过SPAC上市的谈判后，<b>Sportradar集团</b>(SRAD)计划以79亿美元的市值筹集5.04亿美元。这家瑞士公司每年报道83项运动的750,000多场赛事，为体育联盟、博彩运营商和媒体公司提供软件、数据和内容。Sportradar已实现盈利，随着体育直播的恢复，2021年上半年增长加速。</blockquote></p><p> Drive-thru coffee chain&nbsp;<b>Dutch Bros</b>(BROS) plans to raise $400 million at a $3.3 billion market cap. This Oregon-based company has a chain of 471 drive-thru coffee shops in the Western US, and it has been able to maintain a track record of same-store sales growth as it has expanded to new states. Insiders received pre-IPO dividends and will sell shares back to the company.</p><p><blockquote>得来速咖啡连锁店<b>荷兰兄弟</b>(BROS)计划以33亿美元的市值筹集4亿美元。这家总部位于俄勒冈州的公司在美国西部拥有471家得来速咖啡店连锁店，随着业务扩展到新州，它一直能够保持同店销售增长的记录。内部人士收到了IPO前的股息，并将把股票卖回给公司。</blockquote></p><p> Healthcare intelligence platform&nbsp;<b>Definitive Healthcare</b>(DH) plans to raise $350 million at a $3.3 billion market cap. This company provides a healthcare commercial intelligence and analytics platform, helping its customers to analyze, navigate, and sell into the complex healthcare ecosystem. Unprofitable with strong growth, Definitive Healthcare will be leveraged post-IPO.</p><p><blockquote>医疗智能平台<b>权威医疗保健</b>(DH)计划以33亿美元的市值筹集3.5亿美元。该公司提供医疗保健商业智能和分析平台，帮助其客户分析、导航和销售复杂的医疗保健生态系统。由于增长强劲，Definitive Healthcare尚未盈利，但将在IPO后进行杠杆化。</blockquote></p><p> Identity management platform&nbsp;<b>ForgeRock</b>(FORG) plans to raise $248 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. The company provides identity and access management software, with a platform to provision, authenticate, and govern all types of digital identities. Unprofitable with high sales and marketing expenses, ForgeRock is a leading next-gen provider in the multi-billion-dollar identity and access market.</p><p><blockquote>身份管理平台<b>ForgeRock</b>(FORG)计划以21亿美元的市值筹集2.48亿美元。该公司提供身份和访问管理软件，以及一个提供、认证和管理所有类型数字身份的平台。由于销售和营销费用高昂，ForgeRock无利可图，是价值数十亿美元的身份和访问市场中领先的下一代提供商。</blockquote></p><p> Immunology biotech&nbsp;<b>DICE Therapeutics</b>(DICE) plans to raise $160 million at a $550 million market cap. This biotech is developing oral small molecule therapies to treat chronic diseases in immunology and other therapeutic areas. DICE plans to initiate a Phase 1 trial of its lead candidate S011806, an oral antagonist with a variety of immunology indications.</p><p><blockquote>免疫学生物技术<b>骰子疗法</b>(DICE)计划以5.5亿美元的市值筹集1.6亿美元。这家生物技术公司正在开发口服小分子疗法，以治疗免疫学和其他治疗领域的慢性疾病。DICE计划启动其主要候选药物S011806的1期试验，这是一种具有多种免疫学适应症的口服拮抗剂。</blockquote></p><p> Surgical robotics developer&nbsp;<b>PROCEPT BioRobotics</b>(PRCT) plans to raise $127 million at a $1.1 billion market cap. This commercial-stage company develops surgical robotic systems for minimally-invasive urologic surgery with an initial focus on treating benign prostatic hyperplasia. PROCEPT BioRobotics is highly unprofitable and saw revenue increase more than sixfold in the 1H21.</p><p><blockquote>手术机器人开发商<b>PROCEPT生物机器人</b>(PRCT)计划以11亿美元的市值筹集1.27亿美元。这家商业阶段的公司开发用于微创泌尿外科手术的手术机器人系统，最初的重点是治疗良性前列腺增生。PROCEPT BioRobotics非常无利可图，2021年上半年收入增长了六倍多。</blockquote></p><p> Oncology biotech&nbsp;<b>Tyra Biosciences</b>(TYRA) plans to raise $101 million at a $584 million market cap. This preclinical biotech is developing FGFR kinase inhibitors for cancer, specifically solid tumors. Tyra’s lead candidate is initially focused on bladder cancer, and the company expects to submit an IND for it in mid-2022.</p><p><blockquote>肿瘤生物技术<b>泰拉生物科学公司</b>(TYRA)计划以5.84亿美元的市值筹集1.01亿美元。这家临床前生物技术公司正在开发用于癌症，特别是实体瘤的FGFR激酶抑制剂。Tyra的主要候选药物最初专注于膀胱癌，该公司预计将于2022年中期提交IND。</blockquote></p><p> Micro-cap gas delivery service&nbsp;<b>EzFill Holdings</b>(EZFL) plans to raise $25 million at a $104 million market cap. This mobile-fueling company provides an on-demand fuel delivery service in Florida via mobile app. Highly unprofitable with explosive growth, EzFill states that it is the dominant player in the South Florida market.</p><p><blockquote>微帽气体输送服务<b>埃兹菲尔控股</b>(EZFL)计划以1.04亿美元的市值筹集2500万美元。这家移动加油公司通过移动应用程序在佛罗里达州提供按需加油服务。由于爆炸性增长，EzFill表示，它是南佛罗里达州市场的主导者。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/718698ff98644c4026f32efe91d076c6\" tg-width=\"1128\" tg-height=\"684\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97fe13300d9e4cf61effc59b9706776a\" tg-width=\"1129\" tg-height=\"247\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>IPO Market Snapshot</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IPO市场快照</b></blockquote></p><p> The Renaissance IPO Indices are market cap weighted baskets of newly public companies. As of 9/9/21, the Renaissance IPO Index was up 7.7% year-to-date, while the S&amp;P 500 was up 19.6%. Renaissance Capital's IPO ETF (NYSE: IPO) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Snowflake (SNOW) and Palantir Technologies (PLTR). The Renaissance International IPO Index was down 11.0% year-to-date, while the ACWX was up 10.0%. Renaissance Capital’s International IPO ETF (NYSE: IPOS) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Smoore International and EQT Partners.</p><p><blockquote>文艺复兴IPO指数是新上市公司的市值加权篮子。截至9/9/21，文艺复兴IPO指数今年迄今上涨了7.7%，而标普500上涨了19.6%。Renaissance Capital的IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPO）跟踪该指数，持有的顶级ETF包括Snowflake（SNOW）和Palantir Technologies（PLTR）。Renaissance International IPO指数今年迄今下跌11.0%，而ACWX指数上涨10.0%。Renaissance Capital的国际IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPOS）跟踪该指数，持有的顶级ETF包括思摩尔国际和殷拓合伙人。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/85972/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-The-Fall-IPO-market-kicks-off-with-a-10-IPO-week\">Renaissance Capital</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","TWKS":"Thoughtworks Holding Inc.","PRCT":"PROCEPT BioRobotics","SRAD":"Sportradar Group AG","BROS":"Dutch Bros Inc.","DICE":"DICE Therapeutics, Inc.","TYRA":"Tyra Biosciences, Inc.","DH":"Definitive Healthcare Corp.",".DJI":"道琼斯","FORG":"ForgeRock, Inc.",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","ONON":"On Holding AG"},"source_url":"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/85972/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-The-Fall-IPO-market-kicks-off-with-a-10-IPO-week","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189654544","content_text":"After a wave of launches in the short holiday week, 10 IPOs are scheduled to raise over $3 billion in the week ahead.\nTech consultancy Thoughtworks(TWKS) plans to raise $700 million at a $6.3 billion market cap. This agile software developer provides premium, end-to-end digital strategy, design, and engineering services to more than 300 enterprise customers. The company grew revenue at a 14% CAGR from 2017 to 2020, and expanded margins in 2020 and the 1H21.\nSwiss running shoe brand On Holding(ONON) plans to raise $591 million at a $5.9 billion market cap. On is a global provider of premium athletic footwear, apparel, and accessories that are designed using sustainable materials and its proprietary technology. The company has demonstrated growth and profitability, though it faces significant competition from other well-known sportswear brands.\nAfter ending talks to go public via SPAC,Sportradar Group(SRAD) plans to raise $504 million at a $7.9 billion market cap. Covering over 750,000 events annually across 83 sports, this Swiss company provides software, data, and content to sports leagues, betting operators, and media companies. Sportradar is profitable, and growth accelerated in the 1H21 as live sports resumed.\nDrive-thru coffee chain Dutch Bros(BROS) plans to raise $400 million at a $3.3 billion market cap. This Oregon-based company has a chain of 471 drive-thru coffee shops in the Western US, and it has been able to maintain a track record of same-store sales growth as it has expanded to new states. Insiders received pre-IPO dividends and will sell shares back to the company.\nHealthcare intelligence platform Definitive Healthcare(DH) plans to raise $350 million at a $3.3 billion market cap. This company provides a healthcare commercial intelligence and analytics platform, helping its customers to analyze, navigate, and sell into the complex healthcare ecosystem. Unprofitable with strong growth, Definitive Healthcare will be leveraged post-IPO.\nIdentity management platform ForgeRock(FORG) plans to raise $248 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. The company provides identity and access management software, with a platform to provision, authenticate, and govern all types of digital identities. Unprofitable with high sales and marketing expenses, ForgeRock is a leading next-gen provider in the multi-billion-dollar identity and access market.\nImmunology biotech DICE Therapeutics(DICE) plans to raise $160 million at a $550 million market cap. This biotech is developing oral small molecule therapies to treat chronic diseases in immunology and other therapeutic areas. DICE plans to initiate a Phase 1 trial of its lead candidate S011806, an oral antagonist with a variety of immunology indications.\nSurgical robotics developer PROCEPT BioRobotics(PRCT) plans to raise $127 million at a $1.1 billion market cap. This commercial-stage company develops surgical robotic systems for minimally-invasive urologic surgery with an initial focus on treating benign prostatic hyperplasia. PROCEPT BioRobotics is highly unprofitable and saw revenue increase more than sixfold in the 1H21.\nOncology biotech Tyra Biosciences(TYRA) plans to raise $101 million at a $584 million market cap. This preclinical biotech is developing FGFR kinase inhibitors for cancer, specifically solid tumors. Tyra’s lead candidate is initially focused on bladder cancer, and the company expects to submit an IND for it in mid-2022.\nMicro-cap gas delivery service EzFill Holdings(EZFL) plans to raise $25 million at a $104 million market cap. This mobile-fueling company provides an on-demand fuel delivery service in Florida via mobile app. Highly unprofitable with explosive growth, EzFill states that it is the dominant player in the South Florida market.\n\nIPO Market Snapshot\nThe Renaissance IPO Indices are market cap weighted baskets of newly public companies. As of 9/9/21, the Renaissance IPO Index was up 7.7% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 was up 19.6%. Renaissance Capital's IPO ETF (NYSE: IPO) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Snowflake (SNOW) and Palantir Technologies (PLTR). The Renaissance International IPO Index was down 11.0% year-to-date, while the ACWX was up 10.0%. Renaissance Capital’s International IPO ETF (NYSE: IPOS) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Smoore International and EQT Partners.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DICE":0.9,"TYRA":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"BROS":0.9,"EZFL":0.9,"FORG":0.9,"ONON":0.9,"PRCT":0.9,"DH":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"TWKS":0.9,"SRAD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3167,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":881385207,"gmtCreate":1631293411809,"gmtModify":1631891234450,"author":{"id":"3582282988628365","authorId":"3582282988628365","name":"Biancaneve","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c690c91e593d663e5b2aa7fa7a45cead","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582282988628365","idStr":"3582282988628365"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi can anyone give me 1 like? Thank you!","listText":"Hi can anyone give me 1 like? Thank you!","text":"Hi can anyone give me 1 like? Thank you!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/881385207","repostId":"2166375610","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3001,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":889788109,"gmtCreate":1631179093001,"gmtModify":1631891234446,"author":{"id":"3582282988628365","authorId":"3582282988628365","name":"Biancaneve","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c690c91e593d663e5b2aa7fa7a45cead","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582282988628365","idStr":"3582282988628365"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi pls help me to like my comment. Thank you","listText":"Hi pls help me to like my comment. Thank you","text":"Hi pls help me to like my comment. Thank you","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/889788109","repostId":"1108464667","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1108464667","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631178310,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1108464667?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-09 17:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stock Futures Fall Ahead of Jobless Claims Data<blockquote>初请失业金数据公布前股指期货下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108464667","media":"The Wall Street Journal","summary":"The S&P and the Dow Jones Industrial Average are poised for a fourth consecutive day of declines.\n\nU","content":"<p>  <b>The S&amp;P and the Dow Jones Industrial Average are poised for a fourth consecutive day of declines.</b>  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62ea30e47cbb28a9a602059dd3626f41\" tg-width=\"886\" tg-height=\"522\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">U.S. stock futures fell Thursday ahead of fresh data on jobless claims and an update to the European Central Bank’s monetary policy.</p><p><blockquote><b>标准普尔指数和道琼斯工业平均指数有望连续第四天下跌。</b>在新的初请失业金数据和欧洲央行货币政策更新公布之前，美国股指期货周四下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Futures tied to the S&amp;P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average ticked 0.2% lower, indicating that both indexes willextend lossesafter sliding for three consecutive trading days. Contracts for the Nasdaq-100 edged down 0.2%, suggesting that large technology stocks may also decline at the opening bell.</p><p><blockquote>与标普500和道琼斯工业平均指数相关的期货下跌0.2%，表明这两个指数在连续三个交易日下滑后将扩大跌幅。纳斯达克100指数合约小幅下跌0.2%，表明大型科技股也可能在开盘时下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Investors’ optimism has waned this week following a jobs report that showed asharp slowdown in the pace of hiringin the U.S., and signs that thepace of economic recovery weakenedover the summer due to the Delta variant of Covid-19. Questions around when the Federal Reserve and the ECB willbegin to pare back their stimulus programsis also weighing on sentiment, money managers say.</p><p><blockquote>本周，就业报告显示美国招聘步伐急剧放缓，并且有迹象表明，由于Covid-19德尔塔变异毒株，夏季经济复苏步伐减弱，投资者的乐观情绪有所减弱。基金经理表示，围绕美联储和欧洲央行何时开始削减刺激计划的问题也打压了市场情绪。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re slightly more cautious,” said Charles Hepworth, an investment director at GAM Investments. “It does feel that people are getting a bit freaked out by valuations. The Delta variant transmission is a threat for global growth. If you get tapering too soon, that risks derailing the recovery.”</p><p><blockquote>GAM Investments投资总监查尔斯·赫普沃斯(Charles Hepworth)表示：“我们稍微谨慎一些。”“确实感觉人们对估值有点吓坏了。德尔塔变异毒株传导对全球经济增长构成威胁。如果过早缩减规模，就有可能破坏复苏。”</blockquote></p><p> The Cboe Volatility Index—Wall Street’s so-called fear gauge, also known as the VIX—ticked up to 19.</p><p><blockquote>芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数（华尔街所谓的恐惧指标，也称为VIX）升至19。</blockquote></p><p> The ECB will issue its latest policy statement at 7:45 a.m. ET, with policy makers offering their assessment of the economy and inflation. Some investors are betting that the central bank will disclose plans to startparing back its purchase of government bondsthrough an emergency program that was meant to bolster credit markets and growth during the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>欧洲央行将于美国东部时间上午7:45发布最新政策声明，政策制定者将提供对经济和通胀的评估。一些投资者押注央行将披露通过一项紧急计划开始削减政府债券购买的计划，该计划旨在在疫情期间提振信贷市场和增长。</blockquote></p><p> “The real unknown is if the ECB will revise its inflation and growth forecast,” said Agnès Belaisch, chief European strategist at the Barings Investment Institute. “If it raises its inflation forecast closer to 2%, that will make markets wonder if it could overshoot and if the ECB could have to raise interest rates.”</p><p><blockquote>巴林投资研究所首席欧洲策略师Agnès Belaisch表示：“真正的未知数是欧洲央行是否会修改通胀和增长预测。”“如果它将通胀预期上调至接近2%，这将让市场怀疑通胀是否会超调，以及欧洲央行是否可能不得不加息。”</blockquote></p><p> Investors will get fresh figures at 8:30 a.m. ET on the number of Americans who applied for first-time unemployment benefits, a metric that is seen as a proxy for layoffs, in the week ended Sept. 4. The Fed has said that inflation and the labor market are two key factors it is monitoring to determine changes to monetary policy.</p><p><blockquote>投资者将于美国东部时间上午8:30获得截至9月4日当周首次申请失业救济的美国人人数的最新数据，该指标被视为裁员的指标。美联储曾表示，通胀和劳动力市场是其正在监控的决定货币政策变化的两个关键因素。</blockquote></p><p> In bond markets, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note ticked down to 1.322% from 1.333% Wednesday. Yields fall when prices rise.</p><p><blockquote>在债券市场，10年期国债收益率从周三的1.333%降至1.322%。当价格上涨时，收益率下降。</blockquote></p><p> Overseas, the pan-continental Stoxx Europe 600 shed 0.4%, led by losses in travel and leisure companies.</p><p><blockquote>海外方面，泛大陆斯托克欧洲600指数下跌0.4%，旅游和休闲公司跌幅居前。</blockquote></p><p> Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index declined 2.3% by the end of the day. Shares of Chinese videogame giants Tencent Holdings and NetEase tumbled Thursday after authorities summoned the companies and ordered them to follow new rules for the online-gaming industry. Tencent shed 8.5% in Hong Kong trading, while NetEase tumbled 11%.</p><p><blockquote>截至当天收盘，恒生指数下跌2.3%。中国视频游戏巨头腾讯控股控股和网易的股价周四暴跌，此前当局传唤了这两家公司并命令它们遵守网络游戏行业的新规则。腾讯控股在香港交易中下跌8.5%，网易下跌11%。</blockquote></p><p> Other major indexes in Asia broadly closed lower. South Korea’s Kospi fell 1.5%, Australia’s S&amp;P /ASX200 contracted 1.9% and Japan’s Nikkei 225 declined 0.6%. China’s Shanghai Composite Index bucked the trend, gaining 0.5%.</p><p><blockquote>亚洲其他主要股指普遍收低。韩国综合指数下跌1.5%，澳大利亚S&amp;P/ASX200指数下跌1.9%，日本日经225指数下跌0.6%。中国上证综合指数逆势上涨0.5%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stock Futures Fall Ahead of Jobless Claims Data<blockquote>初请失业金数据公布前股指期货下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStock Futures Fall Ahead of Jobless Claims Data<blockquote>初请失业金数据公布前股指期货下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Wall Street Journal</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-09 17:05</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>The S&amp;P and the Dow Jones Industrial Average are poised for a fourth consecutive day of declines.</b>  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62ea30e47cbb28a9a602059dd3626f41\" tg-width=\"886\" tg-height=\"522\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">U.S. stock futures fell Thursday ahead of fresh data on jobless claims and an update to the European Central Bank’s monetary policy.</p><p><blockquote><b>标准普尔指数和道琼斯工业平均指数有望连续第四天下跌。</b>在新的初请失业金数据和欧洲央行货币政策更新公布之前，美国股指期货周四下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Futures tied to the S&amp;P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average ticked 0.2% lower, indicating that both indexes willextend lossesafter sliding for three consecutive trading days. Contracts for the Nasdaq-100 edged down 0.2%, suggesting that large technology stocks may also decline at the opening bell.</p><p><blockquote>与标普500和道琼斯工业平均指数相关的期货下跌0.2%，表明这两个指数在连续三个交易日下滑后将扩大跌幅。纳斯达克100指数合约小幅下跌0.2%，表明大型科技股也可能在开盘时下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Investors’ optimism has waned this week following a jobs report that showed asharp slowdown in the pace of hiringin the U.S., and signs that thepace of economic recovery weakenedover the summer due to the Delta variant of Covid-19. Questions around when the Federal Reserve and the ECB willbegin to pare back their stimulus programsis also weighing on sentiment, money managers say.</p><p><blockquote>本周，就业报告显示美国招聘步伐急剧放缓，并且有迹象表明，由于Covid-19德尔塔变异毒株，夏季经济复苏步伐减弱，投资者的乐观情绪有所减弱。基金经理表示，围绕美联储和欧洲央行何时开始削减刺激计划的问题也打压了市场情绪。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re slightly more cautious,” said Charles Hepworth, an investment director at GAM Investments. “It does feel that people are getting a bit freaked out by valuations. The Delta variant transmission is a threat for global growth. If you get tapering too soon, that risks derailing the recovery.”</p><p><blockquote>GAM Investments投资总监查尔斯·赫普沃斯(Charles Hepworth)表示：“我们稍微谨慎一些。”“确实感觉人们对估值有点吓坏了。德尔塔变异毒株传导对全球经济增长构成威胁。如果过早缩减规模，就有可能破坏复苏。”</blockquote></p><p> The Cboe Volatility Index—Wall Street’s so-called fear gauge, also known as the VIX—ticked up to 19.</p><p><blockquote>芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数（华尔街所谓的恐惧指标，也称为VIX）升至19。</blockquote></p><p> The ECB will issue its latest policy statement at 7:45 a.m. ET, with policy makers offering their assessment of the economy and inflation. Some investors are betting that the central bank will disclose plans to startparing back its purchase of government bondsthrough an emergency program that was meant to bolster credit markets and growth during the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>欧洲央行将于美国东部时间上午7:45发布最新政策声明，政策制定者将提供对经济和通胀的评估。一些投资者押注央行将披露通过一项紧急计划开始削减政府债券购买的计划，该计划旨在在疫情期间提振信贷市场和增长。</blockquote></p><p> “The real unknown is if the ECB will revise its inflation and growth forecast,” said Agnès Belaisch, chief European strategist at the Barings Investment Institute. “If it raises its inflation forecast closer to 2%, that will make markets wonder if it could overshoot and if the ECB could have to raise interest rates.”</p><p><blockquote>巴林投资研究所首席欧洲策略师Agnès Belaisch表示：“真正的未知数是欧洲央行是否会修改通胀和增长预测。”“如果它将通胀预期上调至接近2%，这将让市场怀疑通胀是否会超调，以及欧洲央行是否可能不得不加息。”</blockquote></p><p> Investors will get fresh figures at 8:30 a.m. ET on the number of Americans who applied for first-time unemployment benefits, a metric that is seen as a proxy for layoffs, in the week ended Sept. 4. The Fed has said that inflation and the labor market are two key factors it is monitoring to determine changes to monetary policy.</p><p><blockquote>投资者将于美国东部时间上午8:30获得截至9月4日当周首次申请失业救济的美国人人数的最新数据，该指标被视为裁员的指标。美联储曾表示，通胀和劳动力市场是其正在监控的决定货币政策变化的两个关键因素。</blockquote></p><p> In bond markets, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note ticked down to 1.322% from 1.333% Wednesday. Yields fall when prices rise.</p><p><blockquote>在债券市场，10年期国债收益率从周三的1.333%降至1.322%。当价格上涨时，收益率下降。</blockquote></p><p> Overseas, the pan-continental Stoxx Europe 600 shed 0.4%, led by losses in travel and leisure companies.</p><p><blockquote>海外方面，泛大陆斯托克欧洲600指数下跌0.4%，旅游和休闲公司跌幅居前。</blockquote></p><p> Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index declined 2.3% by the end of the day. Shares of Chinese videogame giants Tencent Holdings and NetEase tumbled Thursday after authorities summoned the companies and ordered them to follow new rules for the online-gaming industry. Tencent shed 8.5% in Hong Kong trading, while NetEase tumbled 11%.</p><p><blockquote>截至当天收盘，恒生指数下跌2.3%。中国视频游戏巨头腾讯控股控股和网易的股价周四暴跌，此前当局传唤了这两家公司并命令它们遵守网络游戏行业的新规则。腾讯控股在香港交易中下跌8.5%，网易下跌11%。</blockquote></p><p> Other major indexes in Asia broadly closed lower. South Korea’s Kospi fell 1.5%, Australia’s S&amp;P /ASX200 contracted 1.9% and Japan’s Nikkei 225 declined 0.6%. China’s Shanghai Composite Index bucked the trend, gaining 0.5%.</p><p><blockquote>亚洲其他主要股指普遍收低。韩国综合指数下跌1.5%，澳大利亚S&amp;P/ASX200指数下跌1.9%，日本日经225指数下跌0.6%。中国上证综合指数逆势上涨0.5%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stock-markets-dow-update-09-09-2021-11631173050?mod=markets_lead_pos1\">The Wall Street Journal</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stock-markets-dow-update-09-09-2021-11631173050?mod=markets_lead_pos1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108464667","content_text":"The S&P and the Dow Jones Industrial Average are poised for a fourth consecutive day of declines.\n\nU.S. stock futures fell Thursday ahead of fresh data on jobless claims and an update to the European Central Bank’s monetary policy.\nFutures tied to the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average ticked 0.2% lower, indicating that both indexes willextend lossesafter sliding for three consecutive trading days. Contracts for the Nasdaq-100 edged down 0.2%, suggesting that large technology stocks may also decline at the opening bell.\nInvestors’ optimism has waned this week following a jobs report that showed asharp slowdown in the pace of hiringin the U.S., and signs that thepace of economic recovery weakenedover the summer due to the Delta variant of Covid-19. Questions around when the Federal Reserve and the ECB willbegin to pare back their stimulus programsis also weighing on sentiment, money managers say.\n“We’re slightly more cautious,” said Charles Hepworth, an investment director at GAM Investments. “It does feel that people are getting a bit freaked out by valuations. The Delta variant transmission is a threat for global growth. If you get tapering too soon, that risks derailing the recovery.”\nThe Cboe Volatility Index—Wall Street’s so-called fear gauge, also known as the VIX—ticked up to 19.\nThe ECB will issue its latest policy statement at 7:45 a.m. ET, with policy makers offering their assessment of the economy and inflation. Some investors are betting that the central bank will disclose plans to startparing back its purchase of government bondsthrough an emergency program that was meant to bolster credit markets and growth during the pandemic.\n“The real unknown is if the ECB will revise its inflation and growth forecast,” said Agnès Belaisch, chief European strategist at the Barings Investment Institute. “If it raises its inflation forecast closer to 2%, that will make markets wonder if it could overshoot and if the ECB could have to raise interest rates.”\nInvestors will get fresh figures at 8:30 a.m. ET on the number of Americans who applied for first-time unemployment benefits, a metric that is seen as a proxy for layoffs, in the week ended Sept. 4. The Fed has said that inflation and the labor market are two key factors it is monitoring to determine changes to monetary policy.\nIn bond markets, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note ticked down to 1.322% from 1.333% Wednesday. Yields fall when prices rise.\nOverseas, the pan-continental Stoxx Europe 600 shed 0.4%, led by losses in travel and leisure companies.\nHong Kong’s Hang Seng Index declined 2.3% by the end of the day. Shares of Chinese videogame giants Tencent Holdings and NetEase tumbled Thursday after authorities summoned the companies and ordered them to follow new rules for the online-gaming industry. Tencent shed 8.5% in Hong Kong trading, while NetEase tumbled 11%.\nOther major indexes in Asia broadly closed lower. South Korea’s Kospi fell 1.5%, Australia’s S&P /ASX200 contracted 1.9% and Japan’s Nikkei 225 declined 0.6%. China’s Shanghai Composite Index bucked the trend, gaining 0.5%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1599,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":880838842,"gmtCreate":1631029834786,"gmtModify":1631891234454,"author":{"id":"3582282988628365","authorId":"3582282988628365","name":"Biancaneve","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c690c91e593d663e5b2aa7fa7a45cead","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582282988628365","idStr":"3582282988628365"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls help me like my comment&nbsp;","listText":"Pls help me like my comment&nbsp;","text":"Pls help me like my comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880838842","repostId":"2165849354","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":513,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":817660088,"gmtCreate":1630941901844,"gmtModify":1631891234461,"author":{"id":"3582282988628365","authorId":"3582282988628365","name":"Biancaneve","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c690c91e593d663e5b2aa7fa7a45cead","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582282988628365","idStr":"3582282988628365"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please help me like my comment. Thank you","listText":"Please help me like my comment. Thank you","text":"Please help me like my comment. Thank you","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/817660088","repostId":"1138372877","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138372877","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630932732,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138372877?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-06 20:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Jerome Powell's Quest For Economic Stability Is Destabilizing<blockquote>杰罗姆·鲍威尔对经济稳定的追求正在破坏稳定</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138372877","media":"zerohedge","summary":"When the chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank speaks the financial markets listen, and this was no d","content":"<p>When the chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank speaks the financial markets listen, and this was no different with Jerome Powell’s virtual address to the annual meeting of central bankers at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. What they got is what Harry Truman complained about when hearing from his economic advisors:<i><b>“On the one hand, ‘this,’ but on the other hand, ‘that’.”</b></i>Truman said that he desperately wanted a one-handed economist.</p><p><blockquote>当美联储主席发表讲话时，金融市场都会倾听，这与杰罗姆·鲍威尔在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行的央行行长年会上的虚拟讲话没有什么不同。他们得到的是哈里·杜鲁门在听取他的经济顾问的意见时所抱怨的：<i><b>“一方面是‘这个’，另一方面是‘那个’。”</b></i>杜鲁门说，他非常想要一个单手经济学家。</blockquote></p><p> After a decade of general economic calm most of the time, with modest to reasonable growth, relatively low price inflation, and, at the beginning of 2020 before the Coronavirus lockdowns, unemployment at its lowest level in half a century,<b>everyone is now worried about what to expect from the Federal Reserve in terms of monetary and interest rate policy in the months and years ahead in the face of all that has been happening for the last year and a half.</b></p><p><blockquote>在经历了十年大部分时间经济总体平静、适度至合理的增长、相对较低的物价通胀，以及在2020年初冠状病毒封锁之前，失业率处于半个世纪以来的最低水平，<b>面对过去一年半发生的一切，每个人现在都在担心美联储在未来几个月和几年的货币和利率政策方面会发生什么。</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Whipsaw GDP and Huge Government Expenditures</b></p><p><blockquote><b>大幅增长的GDP和巨额政府支出</b></blockquote></p><p> After a staggering decline in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from $19.2 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2019 to $17.2 trillion in the second quarter of 2020, or a 9 percent decrease of real GDP in a matter of a few months, the latest revised estimate by the&nbsp;Bureau of Economic Analysis&nbsp;(BEA) for the second quarter of 2021 is that real GDP reached $19.36 trillion. This was a 12.5 percent increase over its 2020 low, and a level now above its pre-Coronavirus high.</p><p><blockquote>在实际国内生产总值（GDP）从2019年第四季度的19.2万亿美元惊人下降到2020年第二季度的17.2万亿美元，即实际GDP在几个月内下降了9%之后，经济分析局（BEA）对2021年第二季度的最新修订估计为实际GDP达到19.36万亿美元。这比2020年的低点增长了12.5%，目前高于冠状病毒爆发前的高点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>It is worth keeping in mind, however, that all of these numbers are exaggerated in terms of real private sector vibrancy because in 2019, federal government&nbsp;expenditures&nbsp;came to $4.45 trillion, or 23 percent of that $19.2 trillion GDP total.</b>By the end of 2020, due to the relaxing of the federal and state lockdown and shutdown mandates over much of the U.S. economy in the second half of last year, real GDP had recovered to $18.76 trillion, but federal government expenditures came to $6.6 trillion, or 35 percent of that total GDP. And just in the first half of 2021, out of that $19.36 trillion GDP, federal spending has already been $5.86 trillion of that total, or 30.2 percent.</p><p><blockquote><b>然而，值得记住的是，就私营部门的实际活力而言，所有这些数字都被夸大了，因为2019年，联邦政府支出达到4.45万亿美元，占19.2万亿美元GDP总额的23%。</b>到2020年底，由于去年下半年联邦和州对美国经济大部分地区的封锁和关闭命令放松，实际GDP已恢复至18.76万亿美元，但联邦政府支出达到6.6万亿美元，占GDP总额的35%。就在2021年上半年，在19.36万亿美元的GDP中，联邦支出已经占了5.86万亿美元，占30.2%。</blockquote></p><p> If government spending is even partly discounted from GDP as a false indicator of the economic “health” of the U.S., since Uncle Sam has nothing to spend other than what it either first taxes away from the private sector or has borrowed from the financial markets, the private economy is far from doing as well as the GDP numbers suggest.</p><p><blockquote>如果政府支出甚至部分从GDP中扣除，作为美国经济“健康”的错误指标，因为山姆大叔除了首先从私营部门征税或从金融市场借款之外没有什么可花的，私营经济远没有GDP数据显示的那么好。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lagging Unemployment and Rising Price Inflation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>滞后的失业和不断上升的物价通胀</b></blockquote></p><p> After unemployment had reached a low of 3.5 percent of the labor force at the start of 2020, it rose to almost 15 percent in April of last year, due to the government-commanded halt of a huge amount of economic activity. In&nbsp;July 2021, unemployment had declined to 5.4 percent of the labor force; but this still left it almost 55 percent above its low at the beginning of 2020.</p><p><blockquote>在2020年初达到劳动力3.5%的低点后，由于政府下令停止大量经济活动，失业率在去年4月升至近15%。2021年7月，失业率已降至劳动力的5.4%；但这仍使其比2020年初的低点高出近55%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>After the&nbsp;Consumer Price Index&nbsp;(CPI) mostly fluctuated in a relatively narrow range of between one and two percent, annually, over the last ten years, 2021 has seen the CPI increase to 5.4 percent in July of this year. Certain subgroups, such as energy and used car automotive sectors increased in double digit ranges on an annualized basis.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在过去十年中，消费者价格指数（CPI）每年大多在1%至2%的相对狭窄范围内波动后，2021年CPI在今年7月上涨至5.4%。某些子组，例如能源和二手车汽车行业，年化增长幅度达到两位数。</b></blockquote></p><p> With unemployment still considered high, with the CPI increasing noticeably above the decade-long annual average, and question marks concerning how GDP will grow for the remainder of this year, given continuing supply-chain disruptions and uncertainties about the impact of variations and new mutations of the Coronavirus, all eyes and ears turned to Jerome Powell’s pronouncements about the future direction of Federal Reserve monetary and interest rate policy.</p><p><blockquote>由于失业率仍然很高，CPI涨幅明显高于十年来的年平均水平，鉴于供应链持续中断以及变异和新变异影响的不确定性，今年剩余时间GDP将如何增长也存在问号冠状病毒，所有的目光和耳朵都转向了杰罗姆·鲍威尔关于美联储货币和利率政策未来方向的声明。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Powell’s Maybe This, Maybe That, Policy Pronouncement</b></p><p><blockquote><b>鲍威尔的政策声明也许是这个，也许是那个</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>And what he said was that the Federal Reserve Board of Governors has not decided what to do!</b></p><p><blockquote><b>而他说的是，美联储理事会还没有决定该怎么做！</b></blockquote></p><p> On the one hand, the economy is improving so, perhaps, before the end of the year, the Fed will reduce its current&nbsp;monthly purchase&nbsp;of $120 billion worth of assets – $80 billion of U.S. government securities, and $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities. And it may decide that it is time to no longer use its policy tools to keep key interest rates close to zero.</p><p><blockquote>一方面，经济正在改善，因此，也许在今年年底之前，美联储将减少目前每月购买价值1200亿美元的资产——800亿美元的美国政府证券和400亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券。它可能会决定，是时候不再使用其政策工具将关键利率保持在接近零的水平了。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, recent price inflation may only be a transitory spurt due to supply-side problems, so the concern about accelerating price increases may be misplaced. Therefore, it may be premature to reduce asset purchases too quickly and certainly it is necessary to be cautious in any nudging up of interest rates that might cut short the national economic recovery before unemployment has been reduced, once again, to a level closer to standard benchmarks of “full employment.”</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，近期的价格通胀可能只是供给侧问题造成的短暂井喷，因此对价格加速上涨的担忧可能是错位的。因此，过快减少资产购买可能还为时过早，当然，在失业率再次降至更接近“充分就业”标准基准的水平之前，任何可能缩短国民经济复苏的加息都需要谨慎。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> On the one hand, the worst of the Coronavirus may have passed, so there may be no new shutdown hurdles in the way of continuing improvement as reflected in the usual macroeconomic measurements. On the other hand, virus variants may prevent a smooth path to a fully restored and growing economy. So, it may be too soon to really specify when and by how much asset purchases will be reduced or by how much those interest rates will be raised from their current near zero levels.</p><p><blockquote>一方面，冠状病毒最糟糕的时期可能已经过去，因此在持续改善的道路上可能不会出现新的停工障碍，正如通常的宏观经济指标所反映的那样。另一方面，病毒变种可能会阻碍通往全面恢复和增长的经济的顺利道路。因此，现在真正确定何时减少资产购买以及减少多少，或者这些利率将从目前接近零的水平上调多少，可能还为时过早。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed Chairman also said that, on the one hand, the Fed leadership has plenty of experience and policy tools to keep the economy on a sound and even path. On the other hand, such things as the impact of the Coronavirus and the threats facing the world from global warming are unique, making charting the Fed policy course a distinct challenge.</p><p><blockquote>这位美联储主席还表示，一方面，美联储领导层拥有丰富的经验和政策工具，可以让经济保持在稳健、平稳的道路上。另一方面，冠状病毒的影响和全球变暖对世界的威胁是独特的，这使得制定美联储的政策路线成为一个明显的挑战。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Powell’s Reticence and the Political Business Cycle</b></p><p><blockquote><b>鲍威尔的沉默与政治商业周期</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>In other words, Jerome Powell evaded any straightforward policy program, and therefore offered something for almost everyone, in terms of easing fears and concerns that either the policy foot will stay too long where it is on the accelerator or will start putting on the brakes too quickly.</b>Either he is being reticent due to honest doubts about what he thinks is ahead for the economy, or he knows how to play to the audience in the White House and in Congress who will decide whether or not he is appointed for a second term as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. After all, you don’t want to seem to be planning any clear policy moves that might threaten the reelection of Senators or Congressmen in the 2022 elections, or antagonize a president who does not want to lose his thin majority in the national legislature.</p><p><blockquote><b>换句话说，杰罗姆·鲍威尔回避了任何直截了当的政策计划，因此为几乎所有人提供了一些东西，缓解了人们的恐惧和担忧，即政策要么会在油门上停留太久，要么会开始踩刹车太快。</b>要么他是因为对他认为的经济前景的诚实怀疑而保持沉默，要么他知道如何迎合白宫和国会的观众，他们将决定他是否被任命为美联储系统理事会主席的第二个任期。毕竟，你不想看起来正在计划任何可能威胁参议员或众议员在2022年选举中连任的明确政策举措，或者激怒一位不想失去在国家立法机构中微弱多数的总统。</blockquote></p><p> That politicians and central bankers are sensitive to the phases of the business cycle as they may impact the political electoral cycle in thinking about their policy decisions and directions has been understood by some economists at least since Johan Akerman’s (1896-1982) analysis of the&nbsp;“Political Economic Cycle”&nbsp;(<i>Kyklos</i>, May 1947), in which he traced out observed changes in those running governments in democratic societies resulting from the phases in the business cycle, and how those in government attempt to manage public policy to maintain their political positions.</p><p><blockquote>至少自约翰·阿克曼（Johan Akerman，1896-1982）对“政治经济周期”（<i>基克洛斯</i>在这篇文章中，他追溯了在民主社会中由商业周期的各个阶段引起的政府管理者的变化，以及政府中的那些人如何试图管理公共政策以维持他们的政治地位。</blockquote></p><p> Historically, Akerman said, looking over the period from the mid-19th&nbsp;century to 1945 in countries like Great Britain, the United States, Germany, and Sweden, the result of the analysis could be summarized in the following way: “All general economic depressions in England . . . lead to cabinet crises and a change of the party in power . . . In the United States the presidential elections as a rule involve a change in party control when votes are cast during a depression and a maintenance of the party in office when the votes are cast during periods of prosperity,” in sixteen of the twenty elections between 1865 and 1945.</p><p><blockquote>阿克曼说，从历史上看，纵观19世纪中期至1945年期间的英国、美国、德国和瑞典等国家，分析结果可以总结如下：“英国所有普遍的经济萧条……都会导致内阁危机和执政党的更迭……在美国，总统选举通常涉及在萧条时期投票时改变政党控制，在繁荣时期投票时维持政党执政”，在1865年至1945年的20次选举中有16次。</blockquote></p><p> Governments, Akerman also pointed out, try “to stabilize financial and economic conditions, and for a brief period may succeed in doing so.” While not pursuing it in his article, the fact is that the underlying circumstances that create “booms” that result in “busts” are usually of the government’s own policy. making. The “good times” monetary and fiscal policies finally create the economic crises that threaten the political policy-makers’ positions in authority. Hence, a government’s frequent demise in the next election when a recession or depression finally occurs. (p. 107)</p><p><blockquote>阿克曼还指出，各国政府试图“稳定金融和经济状况，在短时间内可能会成功。”虽然他的文章没有追究这一点，但事实是，造成“繁荣”导致“萧条”的潜在环境通常是政府自己的政策。制作。“好时代”的货币和财政政策最终造成了经济危机，威胁到政治决策者的权威地位。因此，当经济衰退或萧条最终发生时，政府往往会在下一次选举中垮台。（第107页）</blockquote></p><p> <b>Interest Rates Should Coordinate Savings and Investment</b></p><p><blockquote><b>利率应协调储蓄和投资</b></blockquote></p><p> But this gets to the real essence of the dilemma in Jerome Powell’s statement of Federal Reserve policy and its possible future direction. The underlying presumption is that a central bank can and should be attempting to manage the monetary system and the level of interest rates in the financial markets and, therefore, trying to macro-manage the society as a whole.</p><p><blockquote>但这触及了杰罗姆·鲍威尔美联储政策声明中困境的真正本质及其未来可能的方向。潜在的假设是，中央银行可以也应该试图管理货币体系和金融市场的利率水平，因此，试图对整个社会进行宏观管理。</blockquote></p><p> Let us start with interest rates. The role of market prices is to bring into coordinated balance the two sides of demand and supply. Prices do so by effectively informing those needing to know on the supply side what is it that demanders want and the value they place upon it in terms of what they are willing to pay to get it; prices, at the same time, inform demanders what suppliers can and are willing to produce and offer for sale, and at what price reflecting the producer’s opportunity costs of bringing a particular good or service to market. The competitive interaction of those two sides of the market brings about the balance between them.</p><p><blockquote>让我们从利率开始。市场价格的作用是使供求双方达到协调平衡。价格通过有效地告知那些在供应方需要知道需求者想要什么以及他们愿意支付什么来获得它的价值来做到这一点；与此同时，价格告诉需求者供应商能够并且愿意生产和出售什么，以及以什么价格反映了生产者将特定商品或服务推向市场的机会成本。市场双方的竞争互动带来了它们之间的平衡。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The role of interest rates is to do the same for borrowers and lenders. It is the trading of the use of resources across time between those who are interested and willing to defer the more immediate use of resources (expressed in money) in their possession or under their control, in return for a premium in the future from those interested in more immediate uses of those resources beyond their own capacity in exchange for paying such a premium in the future. That premium is the rate of interest, which may vary with the duration of the loan and risk elements in extending it.</p><p><blockquote>利率的作用是为借款人和贷款人做同样的事情。它是那些有兴趣并愿意推迟更直接地使用其拥有或控制的资源（以货币表示）的人之间对资源使用的交易，以换取那些有兴趣更直接地使用超出其自身能力的资源的人在未来支付这种溢价。该溢价就是利率，它可能会随着贷款期限和延长贷款的风险因素而变化。</blockquote></p><p> The role of the rate of interest is to coordinate the willingness of savers with the desires of borrowers. Any rate of interest above or below this results in, respectively, an excess of savings over investment demand or an excess of investment demand over available savings.</p><p><blockquote>利率的作用是协调储户的意愿和借款人的意愿。高于或低于这一利率的任何利率分别导致储蓄超过投资需求或投资需求超过可用储蓄。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Manipulating Interests Rates Distorts Markets</b></p><p><blockquote><b>操纵利率扭曲市场</b></blockquote></p><p> The crucial difference between a price, say, for hats that is set below the market-clearing, or coordinating, level is that a shortage results with some willing buyers leaving the market empty-handed; but when the Federal Reserve, or any central bank, wishes to manipulate interest rates below the market coordinating level, it fills the gap with newly created money with which loans may be extended in excess of actual savings in the economy.</p><p><blockquote>比如说，低于市场清算或协调水平的帽子价格之间的关键区别在于，短缺会导致一些有意愿的买家空手离开市场；但是，当美联储或任何中央银行希望将利率操纵到市场协调水平以下时，它就会用新创造的货币来填补缺口，这些货币可以用来发放超过经济实际储蓄的贷款。</blockquote></p><p> This not only results in an increase in the number of units of the medium of exchange through which buyers can express their greater demand for desired goods and services, tending, in general, to place upward pressure on overall market prices. It also influences the structure of relative prices and wages, since increases in the supply of money can only enter the economy through the increased demand for the particular goods, resources, and services those borrowers of that new money wish to purchase and use. But the money is then passed to another group of hands; that is, those who have sold those goods, resources and services to the borrowers. This second group, in turn, spends the new money that they have received from sales on other goods, resources and services for which they wish to increase their demand.</p><p><blockquote>这不仅导致交换媒介单位数量的增加，购买者可以通过这种媒介表达他们对所需商品和服务的更大需求，通常倾向于对总体市场价格施加上行压力。它还影响相对价格和工资的结构，因为货币供应量的增加只能通过对新货币的借款人希望购买和使用的特定商品、资源和服务的需求增加而进入经济。但是这些钱随后被传递到另一组人手中；即那些向借款人出售这些商品、资源和服务的人。反过来，第二组人将他们从销售中获得的新钱花在他们希望增加需求的其他商品、资源和服务上。</blockquote></p><p> Step-by-step, in a patterned sequence through time, the newly created money increases the demands and the prices of one set of goods and services, and then another, and then another, until, finally, in principle, all prices for finished goods and the factors of production will have been impacted to one degree or another, at different times in the sequence, with changes in relative profit margins and employment opportunities for as long as the monetary inflationary process continues.</p><p><blockquote>随着时间的推移，新创造的货币一步一步地增加了一套商品和服务的需求和价格，然后是另一套，然后是另一套，直到最后，原则上，成品和生产要素的所有价格都会在序列的不同时间受到某种程度的影响，只要货币通货膨胀过程继续，相对利润率和就业机会就会发生变化。</blockquote></p><p> This also means that whenever the monetary expansion stops or slows down, or even, perhaps, fails to accelerate, the resulting patterned use of labor, resources, and capital equipment brought into existence due to the way the money has entered into the economy and is being spent, period-after-period, begins to fall apart. This precipitates a readjustment process during which it is discovered that labor, capital and resources have been directed into allocated and applied for uses that are unsustainable once the inflationary process comes to an end.</p><p><blockquote>这也意味着，每当货币扩张停止或放缓，甚至可能未能加速时，由于货币进入经济和支出的方式而产生的劳动力、资源和资本设备的模式使用就开始分崩离析。这引发了一个重新调整过程，在此过程中，人们发现，一旦通货膨胀过程结束，劳动力、资本和资源已被分配和应用于不可持续的用途。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Fed’s Monetary Expansion and Bank Reserve Tricks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美联储的货币扩张和银行准备金技巧</b></blockquote></p><p> For over ten years, since the financial and housing crisis of 2008-2009, the Federal Reserve has been dramatically expanding the money supply. In January 2008, the&nbsp;Monetary Base&nbsp;(loanable reserves in the banking system plus currency in general circulation) equaled $837 billion; by August 2014, the Monetary Base had been expanded to over $4 trillion. In February 2020, just before the Coronavirus crisis impacted the U.S. in terms of the government mandated lockdowns and shutdowns, it still was historically high at $3.45 trillion; but by July 2021, the Monetary Base stood at $6.13 trillion, or a nearly 78 percent increase just in the last year and a half.</p><p><blockquote>自2008-2009年金融和房地产危机以来的十多年里，美联储一直在大幅扩大货币供应。2008年1月，货币基础（银行体系可供借贷储备加上一般流通货币）为8,370亿元；到2014年8月，货币基础已扩大到超过4万亿美元。2020年2月，就在冠状病毒危机影响美国政府强制封锁和停工之前，仍处于3.45万亿美元的历史高位；但到2021年7月，基础货币为6.13万亿美元，仅在过去一年半内就增长了近78%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why has there not been the expected general price inflation from such a huge increase in the money supply through the banking system? Because the Federal Reserve has been paying banks not to fully lend the loanable reserves at their disposal.</b>As a result, as of&nbsp;July 2021, banks were holding “excess reserves,” (that is, reserves above the minimum Federal Reserve rules require banks to hold against possible cash withdrawals by their depositors), of around $3.9 trillion, upon which the Federal Reserve&nbsp;pays&nbsp;those banks an interest rate of 0.15 percent. In other words, 63 percent of the Monetary Base is being held off the active loan market.</p><p><blockquote><b>为什么通过银行系统如此巨大的货币供应增加没有出现预期的普遍价格通胀？因为美联储一直在付钱给银行，让他们不要完全借出他们可以支配的可贷准备金。</b>因此，截至2021年7月，银行持有约3.9万亿美元的“超额准备金”（即高于美联储规则要求银行为储户可能提取现金而持有的最低准备金），美联储向这些银行支付0.15%的利率。换句话说，63%的基础货币被活跃的贷款市场拒之门外。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Given that real GDP in the United States has increased by over 25 percent since 2010, and the velocity of circulation of money (number of times money turns over in transactions per period of time), has decreased by almost 40 percent over the last ten years or so, it is not too surprising that prices in general have not been rising more, or more rapidly, given these countervailing factors, plus the Federal Reserve’s “trick” of paying banks to not lend all the huge amount of bank reserves their open market operations have created during the past decade.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于美国的实际GDP自2010年以来增长了25%以上，而货币流通速度（每段时间内货币在交易中周转的次数）在过去十年左右下降了近40%，鉴于这些抵消因素，再加上美联储付钱给银行不要将其公开市场操作在过去十年中创造的所有巨额银行准备金放贷的“伎俩”，价格总体上没有上涨更多或更快也就不足为奇了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Markets Still Distorted, Even with Low Price Inflation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>即使价格通胀较低，市场仍然扭曲</b></blockquote></p><p> It is nonetheless the case, that through its continuing large purchases of U.S. treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, market interest rates have been artificially pushed significantly below any rates of interest that would prevail on financial markets not manipulated in this manner.</p><p><blockquote>然而，事实是，通过持续大量购买美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券，市场利率被人为地大幅推低到不以这种方式操纵的金融市场的任何利率以下。</blockquote></p><p> <b>It is not unreasonable to ask what informational role market interest rates have been even playing about the real underlying savings and investment borrowing relationship in the economy in such a setting. Federal Reserve monetary and interest rate policy has undermined any reasonably accurate intertemporal price to coordinate saving with borrowing.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在这种情况下，人们不禁要问，市场利率在经济中真正的潜在储蓄和投资借贷关系中发挥了什么信息作用。美联储的货币和利率政策破坏了任何合理准确的跨期价格来协调储蓄和借贷。</b></blockquote></p><p> Another way of saying this is that the Federal Reserve’s monetary central planning has virtually abolished a market-based pricing system for the allocation and use of resources across time. How can anyone easily know what real savings is available to fund investment and other loan uses in a way that is not throwing the economy out of serious balance?</p><p><blockquote>另一种说法是，美联储的货币中央计划实际上废除了跨时间资源分配和使用的基于市场的定价体系。任何人怎么能轻易地知道有哪些真正的储蓄可以用来为投资和其他贷款用途提供资金，而不会使经济严重失衡？</blockquote></p><p> In the name of trying to steer the economic “ship” to assure growing GDP, moderate price inflation, and “full employment” of the labor force, Jerome Powell and his fellow Fed Board members are, in fact, setting the stage for an eventual economic downturn by distorting a series of interconnected “microeconomic” relationships in the name of “macroeconomic” stability.</p><p><blockquote>杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）和他的美联储董事会成员以试图驾驭经济“船”以确保GDP增长、温和的价格通胀和劳动力“充分就业”的名义，实际上是在通过以“宏观经济”稳定的名义扭曲一系列相互关联的“微观经济”关系，为最终的经济衰退埋下伏笔。</blockquote></p><p> When the Fed chairman cautiously suggests that the American central bankers are not sure what they are going to do, it is because they cannot do what they say they want to do.<b>By trying to pursue their declared goals through the monetary and interest rate policy tools at their disposal, they are, in fact, continuing to imbalance and wrongly “twist” the real economy in ways that will result in the instability, and the eventual recession and likely price inflation they say they wish to prevent.</b></p><p><blockquote>当美联储主席谨慎地暗示美国央行行长们不确定他们要做什么时，那是因为他们不能做他们说想做的事情。<b>通过试图通过他们所掌握的货币和利率政策工具来追求他们宣称的目标，他们实际上是在继续失衡和错误地“扭曲”实体经济，从而导致不稳定、最终的衰退和他们所说的他们希望防止的可能的价格通胀。</b></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Jerome Powell's Quest For Economic Stability Is Destabilizing<blockquote>杰罗姆·鲍威尔对经济稳定的追求正在破坏稳定</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJerome Powell's Quest For Economic Stability Is Destabilizing<blockquote>杰罗姆·鲍威尔对经济稳定的追求正在破坏稳定</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-06 20:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>When the chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank speaks the financial markets listen, and this was no different with Jerome Powell’s virtual address to the annual meeting of central bankers at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. What they got is what Harry Truman complained about when hearing from his economic advisors:<i><b>“On the one hand, ‘this,’ but on the other hand, ‘that’.”</b></i>Truman said that he desperately wanted a one-handed economist.</p><p><blockquote>当美联储主席发表讲话时，金融市场都会倾听，这与杰罗姆·鲍威尔在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行的央行行长年会上的虚拟讲话没有什么不同。他们得到的是哈里·杜鲁门在听取他的经济顾问的意见时所抱怨的：<i><b>“一方面是‘这个’，另一方面是‘那个’。”</b></i>杜鲁门说，他非常想要一个单手经济学家。</blockquote></p><p> After a decade of general economic calm most of the time, with modest to reasonable growth, relatively low price inflation, and, at the beginning of 2020 before the Coronavirus lockdowns, unemployment at its lowest level in half a century,<b>everyone is now worried about what to expect from the Federal Reserve in terms of monetary and interest rate policy in the months and years ahead in the face of all that has been happening for the last year and a half.</b></p><p><blockquote>在经历了十年大部分时间经济总体平静、适度至合理的增长、相对较低的物价通胀，以及在2020年初冠状病毒封锁之前，失业率处于半个世纪以来的最低水平，<b>面对过去一年半发生的一切，每个人现在都在担心美联储在未来几个月和几年的货币和利率政策方面会发生什么。</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Whipsaw GDP and Huge Government Expenditures</b></p><p><blockquote><b>大幅增长的GDP和巨额政府支出</b></blockquote></p><p> After a staggering decline in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from $19.2 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2019 to $17.2 trillion in the second quarter of 2020, or a 9 percent decrease of real GDP in a matter of a few months, the latest revised estimate by the&nbsp;Bureau of Economic Analysis&nbsp;(BEA) for the second quarter of 2021 is that real GDP reached $19.36 trillion. This was a 12.5 percent increase over its 2020 low, and a level now above its pre-Coronavirus high.</p><p><blockquote>在实际国内生产总值（GDP）从2019年第四季度的19.2万亿美元惊人下降到2020年第二季度的17.2万亿美元，即实际GDP在几个月内下降了9%之后，经济分析局（BEA）对2021年第二季度的最新修订估计为实际GDP达到19.36万亿美元。这比2020年的低点增长了12.5%，目前高于冠状病毒爆发前的高点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>It is worth keeping in mind, however, that all of these numbers are exaggerated in terms of real private sector vibrancy because in 2019, federal government&nbsp;expenditures&nbsp;came to $4.45 trillion, or 23 percent of that $19.2 trillion GDP total.</b>By the end of 2020, due to the relaxing of the federal and state lockdown and shutdown mandates over much of the U.S. economy in the second half of last year, real GDP had recovered to $18.76 trillion, but federal government expenditures came to $6.6 trillion, or 35 percent of that total GDP. And just in the first half of 2021, out of that $19.36 trillion GDP, federal spending has already been $5.86 trillion of that total, or 30.2 percent.</p><p><blockquote><b>然而，值得记住的是，就私营部门的实际活力而言，所有这些数字都被夸大了，因为2019年，联邦政府支出达到4.45万亿美元，占19.2万亿美元GDP总额的23%。</b>到2020年底，由于去年下半年联邦和州对美国经济大部分地区的封锁和关闭命令放松，实际GDP已恢复至18.76万亿美元，但联邦政府支出达到6.6万亿美元，占GDP总额的35%。就在2021年上半年，在19.36万亿美元的GDP中，联邦支出已经占了5.86万亿美元，占30.2%。</blockquote></p><p> If government spending is even partly discounted from GDP as a false indicator of the economic “health” of the U.S., since Uncle Sam has nothing to spend other than what it either first taxes away from the private sector or has borrowed from the financial markets, the private economy is far from doing as well as the GDP numbers suggest.</p><p><blockquote>如果政府支出甚至部分从GDP中扣除，作为美国经济“健康”的错误指标，因为山姆大叔除了首先从私营部门征税或从金融市场借款之外没有什么可花的，私营经济远没有GDP数据显示的那么好。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lagging Unemployment and Rising Price Inflation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>滞后的失业和不断上升的物价通胀</b></blockquote></p><p> After unemployment had reached a low of 3.5 percent of the labor force at the start of 2020, it rose to almost 15 percent in April of last year, due to the government-commanded halt of a huge amount of economic activity. In&nbsp;July 2021, unemployment had declined to 5.4 percent of the labor force; but this still left it almost 55 percent above its low at the beginning of 2020.</p><p><blockquote>在2020年初达到劳动力3.5%的低点后，由于政府下令停止大量经济活动，失业率在去年4月升至近15%。2021年7月，失业率已降至劳动力的5.4%；但这仍使其比2020年初的低点高出近55%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>After the&nbsp;Consumer Price Index&nbsp;(CPI) mostly fluctuated in a relatively narrow range of between one and two percent, annually, over the last ten years, 2021 has seen the CPI increase to 5.4 percent in July of this year. Certain subgroups, such as energy and used car automotive sectors increased in double digit ranges on an annualized basis.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在过去十年中，消费者价格指数（CPI）每年大多在1%至2%的相对狭窄范围内波动后，2021年CPI在今年7月上涨至5.4%。某些子组，例如能源和二手车汽车行业，年化增长幅度达到两位数。</b></blockquote></p><p> With unemployment still considered high, with the CPI increasing noticeably above the decade-long annual average, and question marks concerning how GDP will grow for the remainder of this year, given continuing supply-chain disruptions and uncertainties about the impact of variations and new mutations of the Coronavirus, all eyes and ears turned to Jerome Powell’s pronouncements about the future direction of Federal Reserve monetary and interest rate policy.</p><p><blockquote>由于失业率仍然很高，CPI涨幅明显高于十年来的年平均水平，鉴于供应链持续中断以及变异和新变异影响的不确定性，今年剩余时间GDP将如何增长也存在问号冠状病毒，所有的目光和耳朵都转向了杰罗姆·鲍威尔关于美联储货币和利率政策未来方向的声明。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Powell’s Maybe This, Maybe That, Policy Pronouncement</b></p><p><blockquote><b>鲍威尔的政策声明也许是这个，也许是那个</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>And what he said was that the Federal Reserve Board of Governors has not decided what to do!</b></p><p><blockquote><b>而他说的是，美联储理事会还没有决定该怎么做！</b></blockquote></p><p> On the one hand, the economy is improving so, perhaps, before the end of the year, the Fed will reduce its current&nbsp;monthly purchase&nbsp;of $120 billion worth of assets – $80 billion of U.S. government securities, and $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities. And it may decide that it is time to no longer use its policy tools to keep key interest rates close to zero.</p><p><blockquote>一方面，经济正在改善，因此，也许在今年年底之前，美联储将减少目前每月购买价值1200亿美元的资产——800亿美元的美国政府证券和400亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券。它可能会决定，是时候不再使用其政策工具将关键利率保持在接近零的水平了。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, recent price inflation may only be a transitory spurt due to supply-side problems, so the concern about accelerating price increases may be misplaced. Therefore, it may be premature to reduce asset purchases too quickly and certainly it is necessary to be cautious in any nudging up of interest rates that might cut short the national economic recovery before unemployment has been reduced, once again, to a level closer to standard benchmarks of “full employment.”</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，近期的价格通胀可能只是供给侧问题造成的短暂井喷，因此对价格加速上涨的担忧可能是错位的。因此，过快减少资产购买可能还为时过早，当然，在失业率再次降至更接近“充分就业”标准基准的水平之前，任何可能缩短国民经济复苏的加息都需要谨慎。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> On the one hand, the worst of the Coronavirus may have passed, so there may be no new shutdown hurdles in the way of continuing improvement as reflected in the usual macroeconomic measurements. On the other hand, virus variants may prevent a smooth path to a fully restored and growing economy. So, it may be too soon to really specify when and by how much asset purchases will be reduced or by how much those interest rates will be raised from their current near zero levels.</p><p><blockquote>一方面，冠状病毒最糟糕的时期可能已经过去，因此在持续改善的道路上可能不会出现新的停工障碍，正如通常的宏观经济指标所反映的那样。另一方面，病毒变种可能会阻碍通往全面恢复和增长的经济的顺利道路。因此，现在真正确定何时减少资产购买以及减少多少，或者这些利率将从目前接近零的水平上调多少，可能还为时过早。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed Chairman also said that, on the one hand, the Fed leadership has plenty of experience and policy tools to keep the economy on a sound and even path. On the other hand, such things as the impact of the Coronavirus and the threats facing the world from global warming are unique, making charting the Fed policy course a distinct challenge.</p><p><blockquote>这位美联储主席还表示，一方面，美联储领导层拥有丰富的经验和政策工具，可以让经济保持在稳健、平稳的道路上。另一方面，冠状病毒的影响和全球变暖对世界的威胁是独特的，这使得制定美联储的政策路线成为一个明显的挑战。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Powell’s Reticence and the Political Business Cycle</b></p><p><blockquote><b>鲍威尔的沉默与政治商业周期</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>In other words, Jerome Powell evaded any straightforward policy program, and therefore offered something for almost everyone, in terms of easing fears and concerns that either the policy foot will stay too long where it is on the accelerator or will start putting on the brakes too quickly.</b>Either he is being reticent due to honest doubts about what he thinks is ahead for the economy, or he knows how to play to the audience in the White House and in Congress who will decide whether or not he is appointed for a second term as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. After all, you don’t want to seem to be planning any clear policy moves that might threaten the reelection of Senators or Congressmen in the 2022 elections, or antagonize a president who does not want to lose his thin majority in the national legislature.</p><p><blockquote><b>换句话说，杰罗姆·鲍威尔回避了任何直截了当的政策计划，因此为几乎所有人提供了一些东西，缓解了人们的恐惧和担忧，即政策要么会在油门上停留太久，要么会开始踩刹车太快。</b>要么他是因为对他认为的经济前景的诚实怀疑而保持沉默，要么他知道如何迎合白宫和国会的观众，他们将决定他是否被任命为美联储系统理事会主席的第二个任期。毕竟，你不想看起来正在计划任何可能威胁参议员或众议员在2022年选举中连任的明确政策举措，或者激怒一位不想失去在国家立法机构中微弱多数的总统。</blockquote></p><p> That politicians and central bankers are sensitive to the phases of the business cycle as they may impact the political electoral cycle in thinking about their policy decisions and directions has been understood by some economists at least since Johan Akerman’s (1896-1982) analysis of the&nbsp;“Political Economic Cycle”&nbsp;(<i>Kyklos</i>, May 1947), in which he traced out observed changes in those running governments in democratic societies resulting from the phases in the business cycle, and how those in government attempt to manage public policy to maintain their political positions.</p><p><blockquote>至少自约翰·阿克曼（Johan Akerman，1896-1982）对“政治经济周期”（<i>基克洛斯</i>在这篇文章中，他追溯了在民主社会中由商业周期的各个阶段引起的政府管理者的变化，以及政府中的那些人如何试图管理公共政策以维持他们的政治地位。</blockquote></p><p> Historically, Akerman said, looking over the period from the mid-19th&nbsp;century to 1945 in countries like Great Britain, the United States, Germany, and Sweden, the result of the analysis could be summarized in the following way: “All general economic depressions in England . . . lead to cabinet crises and a change of the party in power . . . In the United States the presidential elections as a rule involve a change in party control when votes are cast during a depression and a maintenance of the party in office when the votes are cast during periods of prosperity,” in sixteen of the twenty elections between 1865 and 1945.</p><p><blockquote>阿克曼说，从历史上看，纵观19世纪中期至1945年期间的英国、美国、德国和瑞典等国家，分析结果可以总结如下：“英国所有普遍的经济萧条……都会导致内阁危机和执政党的更迭……在美国，总统选举通常涉及在萧条时期投票时改变政党控制，在繁荣时期投票时维持政党执政”，在1865年至1945年的20次选举中有16次。</blockquote></p><p> Governments, Akerman also pointed out, try “to stabilize financial and economic conditions, and for a brief period may succeed in doing so.” While not pursuing it in his article, the fact is that the underlying circumstances that create “booms” that result in “busts” are usually of the government’s own policy. making. The “good times” monetary and fiscal policies finally create the economic crises that threaten the political policy-makers’ positions in authority. Hence, a government’s frequent demise in the next election when a recession or depression finally occurs. (p. 107)</p><p><blockquote>阿克曼还指出，各国政府试图“稳定金融和经济状况，在短时间内可能会成功。”虽然他的文章没有追究这一点，但事实是，造成“繁荣”导致“萧条”的潜在环境通常是政府自己的政策。制作。“好时代”的货币和财政政策最终造成了经济危机，威胁到政治决策者的权威地位。因此，当经济衰退或萧条最终发生时，政府往往会在下一次选举中垮台。（第107页）</blockquote></p><p> <b>Interest Rates Should Coordinate Savings and Investment</b></p><p><blockquote><b>利率应协调储蓄和投资</b></blockquote></p><p> But this gets to the real essence of the dilemma in Jerome Powell’s statement of Federal Reserve policy and its possible future direction. The underlying presumption is that a central bank can and should be attempting to manage the monetary system and the level of interest rates in the financial markets and, therefore, trying to macro-manage the society as a whole.</p><p><blockquote>但这触及了杰罗姆·鲍威尔美联储政策声明中困境的真正本质及其未来可能的方向。潜在的假设是，中央银行可以也应该试图管理货币体系和金融市场的利率水平，因此，试图对整个社会进行宏观管理。</blockquote></p><p> Let us start with interest rates. The role of market prices is to bring into coordinated balance the two sides of demand and supply. Prices do so by effectively informing those needing to know on the supply side what is it that demanders want and the value they place upon it in terms of what they are willing to pay to get it; prices, at the same time, inform demanders what suppliers can and are willing to produce and offer for sale, and at what price reflecting the producer’s opportunity costs of bringing a particular good or service to market. The competitive interaction of those two sides of the market brings about the balance between them.</p><p><blockquote>让我们从利率开始。市场价格的作用是使供求双方达到协调平衡。价格通过有效地告知那些在供应方需要知道需求者想要什么以及他们愿意支付什么来获得它的价值来做到这一点；与此同时，价格告诉需求者供应商能够并且愿意生产和出售什么，以及以什么价格反映了生产者将特定商品或服务推向市场的机会成本。市场双方的竞争互动带来了它们之间的平衡。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The role of interest rates is to do the same for borrowers and lenders. It is the trading of the use of resources across time between those who are interested and willing to defer the more immediate use of resources (expressed in money) in their possession or under their control, in return for a premium in the future from those interested in more immediate uses of those resources beyond their own capacity in exchange for paying such a premium in the future. That premium is the rate of interest, which may vary with the duration of the loan and risk elements in extending it.</p><p><blockquote>利率的作用是为借款人和贷款人做同样的事情。它是那些有兴趣并愿意推迟更直接地使用其拥有或控制的资源（以货币表示）的人之间对资源使用的交易，以换取那些有兴趣更直接地使用超出其自身能力的资源的人在未来支付这种溢价。该溢价就是利率，它可能会随着贷款期限和延长贷款的风险因素而变化。</blockquote></p><p> The role of the rate of interest is to coordinate the willingness of savers with the desires of borrowers. Any rate of interest above or below this results in, respectively, an excess of savings over investment demand or an excess of investment demand over available savings.</p><p><blockquote>利率的作用是协调储户的意愿和借款人的意愿。高于或低于这一利率的任何利率分别导致储蓄超过投资需求或投资需求超过可用储蓄。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Manipulating Interests Rates Distorts Markets</b></p><p><blockquote><b>操纵利率扭曲市场</b></blockquote></p><p> The crucial difference between a price, say, for hats that is set below the market-clearing, or coordinating, level is that a shortage results with some willing buyers leaving the market empty-handed; but when the Federal Reserve, or any central bank, wishes to manipulate interest rates below the market coordinating level, it fills the gap with newly created money with which loans may be extended in excess of actual savings in the economy.</p><p><blockquote>比如说，低于市场清算或协调水平的帽子价格之间的关键区别在于，短缺会导致一些有意愿的买家空手离开市场；但是，当美联储或任何中央银行希望将利率操纵到市场协调水平以下时，它就会用新创造的货币来填补缺口，这些货币可以用来发放超过经济实际储蓄的贷款。</blockquote></p><p> This not only results in an increase in the number of units of the medium of exchange through which buyers can express their greater demand for desired goods and services, tending, in general, to place upward pressure on overall market prices. It also influences the structure of relative prices and wages, since increases in the supply of money can only enter the economy through the increased demand for the particular goods, resources, and services those borrowers of that new money wish to purchase and use. But the money is then passed to another group of hands; that is, those who have sold those goods, resources and services to the borrowers. This second group, in turn, spends the new money that they have received from sales on other goods, resources and services for which they wish to increase their demand.</p><p><blockquote>这不仅导致交换媒介单位数量的增加，购买者可以通过这种媒介表达他们对所需商品和服务的更大需求，通常倾向于对总体市场价格施加上行压力。它还影响相对价格和工资的结构，因为货币供应量的增加只能通过对新货币的借款人希望购买和使用的特定商品、资源和服务的需求增加而进入经济。但是这些钱随后被传递到另一组人手中；即那些向借款人出售这些商品、资源和服务的人。反过来，第二组人将他们从销售中获得的新钱花在他们希望增加需求的其他商品、资源和服务上。</blockquote></p><p> Step-by-step, in a patterned sequence through time, the newly created money increases the demands and the prices of one set of goods and services, and then another, and then another, until, finally, in principle, all prices for finished goods and the factors of production will have been impacted to one degree or another, at different times in the sequence, with changes in relative profit margins and employment opportunities for as long as the monetary inflationary process continues.</p><p><blockquote>随着时间的推移，新创造的货币一步一步地增加了一套商品和服务的需求和价格，然后是另一套，然后是另一套，直到最后，原则上，成品和生产要素的所有价格都会在序列的不同时间受到某种程度的影响，只要货币通货膨胀过程继续，相对利润率和就业机会就会发生变化。</blockquote></p><p> This also means that whenever the monetary expansion stops or slows down, or even, perhaps, fails to accelerate, the resulting patterned use of labor, resources, and capital equipment brought into existence due to the way the money has entered into the economy and is being spent, period-after-period, begins to fall apart. This precipitates a readjustment process during which it is discovered that labor, capital and resources have been directed into allocated and applied for uses that are unsustainable once the inflationary process comes to an end.</p><p><blockquote>这也意味着，每当货币扩张停止或放缓，甚至可能未能加速时，由于货币进入经济和支出的方式而产生的劳动力、资源和资本设备的模式使用就开始分崩离析。这引发了一个重新调整过程，在此过程中，人们发现，一旦通货膨胀过程结束，劳动力、资本和资源已被分配和应用于不可持续的用途。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Fed’s Monetary Expansion and Bank Reserve Tricks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美联储的货币扩张和银行准备金技巧</b></blockquote></p><p> For over ten years, since the financial and housing crisis of 2008-2009, the Federal Reserve has been dramatically expanding the money supply. In January 2008, the&nbsp;Monetary Base&nbsp;(loanable reserves in the banking system plus currency in general circulation) equaled $837 billion; by August 2014, the Monetary Base had been expanded to over $4 trillion. In February 2020, just before the Coronavirus crisis impacted the U.S. in terms of the government mandated lockdowns and shutdowns, it still was historically high at $3.45 trillion; but by July 2021, the Monetary Base stood at $6.13 trillion, or a nearly 78 percent increase just in the last year and a half.</p><p><blockquote>自2008-2009年金融和房地产危机以来的十多年里，美联储一直在大幅扩大货币供应。2008年1月，货币基础（银行体系可供借贷储备加上一般流通货币）为8,370亿元；到2014年8月，货币基础已扩大到超过4万亿美元。2020年2月，就在冠状病毒危机影响美国政府强制封锁和停工之前，仍处于3.45万亿美元的历史高位；但到2021年7月，基础货币为6.13万亿美元，仅在过去一年半内就增长了近78%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why has there not been the expected general price inflation from such a huge increase in the money supply through the banking system? Because the Federal Reserve has been paying banks not to fully lend the loanable reserves at their disposal.</b>As a result, as of&nbsp;July 2021, banks were holding “excess reserves,” (that is, reserves above the minimum Federal Reserve rules require banks to hold against possible cash withdrawals by their depositors), of around $3.9 trillion, upon which the Federal Reserve&nbsp;pays&nbsp;those banks an interest rate of 0.15 percent. In other words, 63 percent of the Monetary Base is being held off the active loan market.</p><p><blockquote><b>为什么通过银行系统如此巨大的货币供应增加没有出现预期的普遍价格通胀？因为美联储一直在付钱给银行，让他们不要完全借出他们可以支配的可贷准备金。</b>因此，截至2021年7月，银行持有约3.9万亿美元的“超额准备金”（即高于美联储规则要求银行为储户可能提取现金而持有的最低准备金），美联储向这些银行支付0.15%的利率。换句话说，63%的基础货币被活跃的贷款市场拒之门外。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Given that real GDP in the United States has increased by over 25 percent since 2010, and the velocity of circulation of money (number of times money turns over in transactions per period of time), has decreased by almost 40 percent over the last ten years or so, it is not too surprising that prices in general have not been rising more, or more rapidly, given these countervailing factors, plus the Federal Reserve’s “trick” of paying banks to not lend all the huge amount of bank reserves their open market operations have created during the past decade.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于美国的实际GDP自2010年以来增长了25%以上，而货币流通速度（每段时间内货币在交易中周转的次数）在过去十年左右下降了近40%，鉴于这些抵消因素，再加上美联储付钱给银行不要将其公开市场操作在过去十年中创造的所有巨额银行准备金放贷的“伎俩”，价格总体上没有上涨更多或更快也就不足为奇了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Markets Still Distorted, Even with Low Price Inflation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>即使价格通胀较低，市场仍然扭曲</b></blockquote></p><p> It is nonetheless the case, that through its continuing large purchases of U.S. treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, market interest rates have been artificially pushed significantly below any rates of interest that would prevail on financial markets not manipulated in this manner.</p><p><blockquote>然而，事实是，通过持续大量购买美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券，市场利率被人为地大幅推低到不以这种方式操纵的金融市场的任何利率以下。</blockquote></p><p> <b>It is not unreasonable to ask what informational role market interest rates have been even playing about the real underlying savings and investment borrowing relationship in the economy in such a setting. Federal Reserve monetary and interest rate policy has undermined any reasonably accurate intertemporal price to coordinate saving with borrowing.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在这种情况下，人们不禁要问，市场利率在经济中真正的潜在储蓄和投资借贷关系中发挥了什么信息作用。美联储的货币和利率政策破坏了任何合理准确的跨期价格来协调储蓄和借贷。</b></blockquote></p><p> Another way of saying this is that the Federal Reserve’s monetary central planning has virtually abolished a market-based pricing system for the allocation and use of resources across time. How can anyone easily know what real savings is available to fund investment and other loan uses in a way that is not throwing the economy out of serious balance?</p><p><blockquote>另一种说法是，美联储的货币中央计划实际上废除了跨时间资源分配和使用的基于市场的定价体系。任何人怎么能轻易地知道有哪些真正的储蓄可以用来为投资和其他贷款用途提供资金，而不会使经济严重失衡？</blockquote></p><p> In the name of trying to steer the economic “ship” to assure growing GDP, moderate price inflation, and “full employment” of the labor force, Jerome Powell and his fellow Fed Board members are, in fact, setting the stage for an eventual economic downturn by distorting a series of interconnected “microeconomic” relationships in the name of “macroeconomic” stability.</p><p><blockquote>杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）和他的美联储董事会成员以试图驾驭经济“船”以确保GDP增长、温和的价格通胀和劳动力“充分就业”的名义，实际上是在通过以“宏观经济”稳定的名义扭曲一系列相互关联的“微观经济”关系，为最终的经济衰退埋下伏笔。</blockquote></p><p> When the Fed chairman cautiously suggests that the American central bankers are not sure what they are going to do, it is because they cannot do what they say they want to do.<b>By trying to pursue their declared goals through the monetary and interest rate policy tools at their disposal, they are, in fact, continuing to imbalance and wrongly “twist” the real economy in ways that will result in the instability, and the eventual recession and likely price inflation they say they wish to prevent.</b></p><p><blockquote>当美联储主席谨慎地暗示美国央行行长们不确定他们要做什么时，那是因为他们不能做他们说想做的事情。<b>通过试图通过他们所掌握的货币和利率政策工具来追求他们宣称的目标，他们实际上是在继续失衡和错误地“扭曲”实体经济，从而导致不稳定、最终的衰退和他们所说的他们希望防止的可能的价格通胀。</b></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/jerome-powells-quest-economic-stability-destabilizing\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/jerome-powells-quest-economic-stability-destabilizing","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138372877","content_text":"When the chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank speaks the financial markets listen, and this was no different with Jerome Powell’s virtual address to the annual meeting of central bankers at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. What they got is what Harry Truman complained about when hearing from his economic advisors:“On the one hand, ‘this,’ but on the other hand, ‘that’.”Truman said that he desperately wanted a one-handed economist.\nAfter a decade of general economic calm most of the time, with modest to reasonable growth, relatively low price inflation, and, at the beginning of 2020 before the Coronavirus lockdowns, unemployment at its lowest level in half a century,everyone is now worried about what to expect from the Federal Reserve in terms of monetary and interest rate policy in the months and years ahead in the face of all that has been happening for the last year and a half.\nWhipsaw GDP and Huge Government Expenditures\nAfter a staggering decline in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from $19.2 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2019 to $17.2 trillion in the second quarter of 2020, or a 9 percent decrease of real GDP in a matter of a few months, the latest revised estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) for the second quarter of 2021 is that real GDP reached $19.36 trillion. This was a 12.5 percent increase over its 2020 low, and a level now above its pre-Coronavirus high.\nIt is worth keeping in mind, however, that all of these numbers are exaggerated in terms of real private sector vibrancy because in 2019, federal government expenditures came to $4.45 trillion, or 23 percent of that $19.2 trillion GDP total.By the end of 2020, due to the relaxing of the federal and state lockdown and shutdown mandates over much of the U.S. economy in the second half of last year, real GDP had recovered to $18.76 trillion, but federal government expenditures came to $6.6 trillion, or 35 percent of that total GDP. And just in the first half of 2021, out of that $19.36 trillion GDP, federal spending has already been $5.86 trillion of that total, or 30.2 percent.\nIf government spending is even partly discounted from GDP as a false indicator of the economic “health” of the U.S., since Uncle Sam has nothing to spend other than what it either first taxes away from the private sector or has borrowed from the financial markets, the private economy is far from doing as well as the GDP numbers suggest.\nLagging Unemployment and Rising Price Inflation\nAfter unemployment had reached a low of 3.5 percent of the labor force at the start of 2020, it rose to almost 15 percent in April of last year, due to the government-commanded halt of a huge amount of economic activity. In July 2021, unemployment had declined to 5.4 percent of the labor force; but this still left it almost 55 percent above its low at the beginning of 2020.\nAfter the Consumer Price Index (CPI) mostly fluctuated in a relatively narrow range of between one and two percent, annually, over the last ten years, 2021 has seen the CPI increase to 5.4 percent in July of this year. Certain subgroups, such as energy and used car automotive sectors increased in double digit ranges on an annualized basis.\nWith unemployment still considered high, with the CPI increasing noticeably above the decade-long annual average, and question marks concerning how GDP will grow for the remainder of this year, given continuing supply-chain disruptions and uncertainties about the impact of variations and new mutations of the Coronavirus, all eyes and ears turned to Jerome Powell’s pronouncements about the future direction of Federal Reserve monetary and interest rate policy.\nPowell’s Maybe This, Maybe That, Policy Pronouncement\nAnd what he said was that the Federal Reserve Board of Governors has not decided what to do!\nOn the one hand, the economy is improving so, perhaps, before the end of the year, the Fed will reduce its current monthly purchase of $120 billion worth of assets – $80 billion of U.S. government securities, and $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities. And it may decide that it is time to no longer use its policy tools to keep key interest rates close to zero.\nOn the other hand, recent price inflation may only be a transitory spurt due to supply-side problems, so the concern about accelerating price increases may be misplaced. Therefore, it may be premature to reduce asset purchases too quickly and certainly it is necessary to be cautious in any nudging up of interest rates that might cut short the national economic recovery before unemployment has been reduced, once again, to a level closer to standard benchmarks of “full employment.”\nOn the one hand, the worst of the Coronavirus may have passed, so there may be no new shutdown hurdles in the way of continuing improvement as reflected in the usual macroeconomic measurements. On the other hand, virus variants may prevent a smooth path to a fully restored and growing economy. So, it may be too soon to really specify when and by how much asset purchases will be reduced or by how much those interest rates will be raised from their current near zero levels.\nThe Fed Chairman also said that, on the one hand, the Fed leadership has plenty of experience and policy tools to keep the economy on a sound and even path. On the other hand, such things as the impact of the Coronavirus and the threats facing the world from global warming are unique, making charting the Fed policy course a distinct challenge.\nPowell’s Reticence and the Political Business Cycle\nIn other words, Jerome Powell evaded any straightforward policy program, and therefore offered something for almost everyone, in terms of easing fears and concerns that either the policy foot will stay too long where it is on the accelerator or will start putting on the brakes too quickly.Either he is being reticent due to honest doubts about what he thinks is ahead for the economy, or he knows how to play to the audience in the White House and in Congress who will decide whether or not he is appointed for a second term as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. After all, you don’t want to seem to be planning any clear policy moves that might threaten the reelection of Senators or Congressmen in the 2022 elections, or antagonize a president who does not want to lose his thin majority in the national legislature.\nThat politicians and central bankers are sensitive to the phases of the business cycle as they may impact the political electoral cycle in thinking about their policy decisions and directions has been understood by some economists at least since Johan Akerman’s (1896-1982) analysis of the “Political Economic Cycle” (Kyklos, May 1947), in which he traced out observed changes in those running governments in democratic societies resulting from the phases in the business cycle, and how those in government attempt to manage public policy to maintain their political positions.\nHistorically, Akerman said, looking over the period from the mid-19th century to 1945 in countries like Great Britain, the United States, Germany, and Sweden, the result of the analysis could be summarized in the following way: “All general economic depressions in England . . . lead to cabinet crises and a change of the party in power . . . In the United States the presidential elections as a rule involve a change in party control when votes are cast during a depression and a maintenance of the party in office when the votes are cast during periods of prosperity,” in sixteen of the twenty elections between 1865 and 1945.\nGovernments, Akerman also pointed out, try “to stabilize financial and economic conditions, and for a brief period may succeed in doing so.” While not pursuing it in his article, the fact is that the underlying circumstances that create “booms” that result in “busts” are usually of the government’s own policy. making. The “good times” monetary and fiscal policies finally create the economic crises that threaten the political policy-makers’ positions in authority. Hence, a government’s frequent demise in the next election when a recession or depression finally occurs. (p. 107)\nInterest Rates Should Coordinate Savings and Investment\nBut this gets to the real essence of the dilemma in Jerome Powell’s statement of Federal Reserve policy and its possible future direction. The underlying presumption is that a central bank can and should be attempting to manage the monetary system and the level of interest rates in the financial markets and, therefore, trying to macro-manage the society as a whole.\nLet us start with interest rates. The role of market prices is to bring into coordinated balance the two sides of demand and supply. Prices do so by effectively informing those needing to know on the supply side what is it that demanders want and the value they place upon it in terms of what they are willing to pay to get it; prices, at the same time, inform demanders what suppliers can and are willing to produce and offer for sale, and at what price reflecting the producer’s opportunity costs of bringing a particular good or service to market. The competitive interaction of those two sides of the market brings about the balance between them.\nThe role of interest rates is to do the same for borrowers and lenders. It is the trading of the use of resources across time between those who are interested and willing to defer the more immediate use of resources (expressed in money) in their possession or under their control, in return for a premium in the future from those interested in more immediate uses of those resources beyond their own capacity in exchange for paying such a premium in the future. That premium is the rate of interest, which may vary with the duration of the loan and risk elements in extending it.\nThe role of the rate of interest is to coordinate the willingness of savers with the desires of borrowers. Any rate of interest above or below this results in, respectively, an excess of savings over investment demand or an excess of investment demand over available savings.\nManipulating Interests Rates Distorts Markets\nThe crucial difference between a price, say, for hats that is set below the market-clearing, or coordinating, level is that a shortage results with some willing buyers leaving the market empty-handed; but when the Federal Reserve, or any central bank, wishes to manipulate interest rates below the market coordinating level, it fills the gap with newly created money with which loans may be extended in excess of actual savings in the economy.\nThis not only results in an increase in the number of units of the medium of exchange through which buyers can express their greater demand for desired goods and services, tending, in general, to place upward pressure on overall market prices. It also influences the structure of relative prices and wages, since increases in the supply of money can only enter the economy through the increased demand for the particular goods, resources, and services those borrowers of that new money wish to purchase and use. But the money is then passed to another group of hands; that is, those who have sold those goods, resources and services to the borrowers. This second group, in turn, spends the new money that they have received from sales on other goods, resources and services for which they wish to increase their demand.\nStep-by-step, in a patterned sequence through time, the newly created money increases the demands and the prices of one set of goods and services, and then another, and then another, until, finally, in principle, all prices for finished goods and the factors of production will have been impacted to one degree or another, at different times in the sequence, with changes in relative profit margins and employment opportunities for as long as the monetary inflationary process continues.\nThis also means that whenever the monetary expansion stops or slows down, or even, perhaps, fails to accelerate, the resulting patterned use of labor, resources, and capital equipment brought into existence due to the way the money has entered into the economy and is being spent, period-after-period, begins to fall apart. This precipitates a readjustment process during which it is discovered that labor, capital and resources have been directed into allocated and applied for uses that are unsustainable once the inflationary process comes to an end.\nThe Fed’s Monetary Expansion and Bank Reserve Tricks\nFor over ten years, since the financial and housing crisis of 2008-2009, the Federal Reserve has been dramatically expanding the money supply. In January 2008, the Monetary Base (loanable reserves in the banking system plus currency in general circulation) equaled $837 billion; by August 2014, the Monetary Base had been expanded to over $4 trillion. In February 2020, just before the Coronavirus crisis impacted the U.S. in terms of the government mandated lockdowns and shutdowns, it still was historically high at $3.45 trillion; but by July 2021, the Monetary Base stood at $6.13 trillion, or a nearly 78 percent increase just in the last year and a half.\nWhy has there not been the expected general price inflation from such a huge increase in the money supply through the banking system? Because the Federal Reserve has been paying banks not to fully lend the loanable reserves at their disposal.As a result, as of July 2021, banks were holding “excess reserves,” (that is, reserves above the minimum Federal Reserve rules require banks to hold against possible cash withdrawals by their depositors), of around $3.9 trillion, upon which the Federal Reserve pays those banks an interest rate of 0.15 percent. In other words, 63 percent of the Monetary Base is being held off the active loan market.\nGiven that real GDP in the United States has increased by over 25 percent since 2010, and the velocity of circulation of money (number of times money turns over in transactions per period of time), has decreased by almost 40 percent over the last ten years or so, it is not too surprising that prices in general have not been rising more, or more rapidly, given these countervailing factors, plus the Federal Reserve’s “trick” of paying banks to not lend all the huge amount of bank reserves their open market operations have created during the past decade.\nMarkets Still Distorted, Even with Low Price Inflation\nIt is nonetheless the case, that through its continuing large purchases of U.S. treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, market interest rates have been artificially pushed significantly below any rates of interest that would prevail on financial markets not manipulated in this manner.\nIt is not unreasonable to ask what informational role market interest rates have been even playing about the real underlying savings and investment borrowing relationship in the economy in such a setting. Federal Reserve monetary and interest rate policy has undermined any reasonably accurate intertemporal price to coordinate saving with borrowing.\nAnother way of saying this is that the Federal Reserve’s monetary central planning has virtually abolished a market-based pricing system for the allocation and use of resources across time. How can anyone easily know what real savings is available to fund investment and other loan uses in a way that is not throwing the economy out of serious balance?\nIn the name of trying to steer the economic “ship” to assure growing GDP, moderate price inflation, and “full employment” of the labor force, Jerome Powell and his fellow Fed Board members are, in fact, setting the stage for an eventual economic downturn by distorting a series of interconnected “microeconomic” relationships in the name of “macroeconomic” stability.\nWhen the Fed chairman cautiously suggests that the American central bankers are not sure what they are going to do, it is because they cannot do what they say they want to do.By trying to pursue their declared goals through the monetary and interest rate policy tools at their disposal, they are, in fact, continuing to imbalance and wrongly “twist” the real economy in ways that will result in the instability, and the eventual recession and likely price inflation they say they wish to prevent.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":611,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":812946611,"gmtCreate":1630548884233,"gmtModify":1631893079525,"author":{"id":"3582282988628365","authorId":"3582282988628365","name":"Biancaneve","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c690c91e593d663e5b2aa7fa7a45cead","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582282988628365","idStr":"3582282988628365"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please kindly give me 1 like. Thank you","listText":"Please kindly give me 1 like. Thank you","text":"Please kindly give me 1 like. Thank you","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/812946611","repostId":"1182102030","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":592,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":811232163,"gmtCreate":1630325578652,"gmtModify":1704958440834,"author":{"id":"3582282988628365","authorId":"3582282988628365","name":"Biancaneve","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c690c91e593d663e5b2aa7fa7a45cead","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582282988628365","idStr":"3582282988628365"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Give me 1 like pls. Thank you","listText":"Give me 1 like pls. Thank you","text":"Give me 1 like pls. Thank you","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/811232163","repostId":"2163853228","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":930,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":813816055,"gmtCreate":1630168278977,"gmtModify":1704956698445,"author":{"id":"3582282988628365","authorId":"3582282988628365","name":"Biancaneve","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c690c91e593d663e5b2aa7fa7a45cead","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582282988628365","idStr":"3582282988628365"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Can anyone help me to like my comment? Thank you!","listText":"Can anyone help me to like my comment? Thank you!","text":"Can anyone help me to like my comment? Thank you!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/813816055","repostId":"1123342356","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":530,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":810459397,"gmtCreate":1629994935919,"gmtModify":1704954397872,"author":{"id":"3582282988628365","authorId":"3582282988628365","name":"Biancaneve","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c690c91e593d663e5b2aa7fa7a45cead","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582282988628365","idStr":"3582282988628365"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"&nbsp;help me like my comment. Thank you very much","listText":"&nbsp;help me like my comment. Thank you very much","text":"help me like my comment. Thank you very much","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/810459397","repostId":"1139424376","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":408,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":832955749,"gmtCreate":1629568113481,"gmtModify":1631893079537,"author":{"id":"3582282988628365","authorId":"3582282988628365","name":"Biancaneve","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c690c91e593d663e5b2aa7fa7a45cead","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582282988628365","idStr":"3582282988628365"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please help me to like my comment. Thank you very much!&nbsp;","listText":"Please help me to like my comment. Thank you very much!&nbsp;","text":"Please help me to like my comment. Thank you very much!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/832955749","repostId":"1151608193","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151608193","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629728324,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1151608193?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-23 22:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股回调——长期关注这6家公司</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151608193","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.\nISTOCKPHOTO\nIn the rolling correcti","content":"<p><b>The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>iShares半导体ETF较近期高点下跌超过6%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b24e4a76a5d1cd0ff030cf1b0eeac0f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.</p><p><blockquote>在股市的滚动调整中，芯片制造商受到的打击比大多数制造商都要严重。</blockquote></p><p> The iShares Semiconductor ETF&nbsp;is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&amp;P 500,Nasdaq&nbsp;Composite&nbsp;and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.</p><p><blockquote>iShares半导体ETF较近期高点下跌超过6%，而标普500、纳斯达克综合指数和道琼斯工业平均指数的跌幅为2%或更少。</blockquote></p><p> Does that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.</p><p><blockquote>这是否意味着芯片股值得买入？或者这个历史上周期性的行业是否会故技重施，进入持续下跌趋势，让你大吃一惊。</blockquote></p><p> A lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”</p><p><blockquote>很大程度上取决于您的时间表，但如果您喜欢持有多年股票而不是租用几天，那么该集团是值得买入的。主要原因：“这次不一样。”</blockquote></p><p> Those are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.</p><p><blockquote>诚然，这些是投资中最可怕的词语之一。但芯片行业已经发生了如此大的变化，现在确实有所不同——这表明它不太可能压垮你。</blockquote></p><p> You’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为没有风险，那你就是个傻瓜。我去看看。但首先，以下是该组织现在“更安全”的三个主要原因，以及过去几天我与之交谈的六位行业专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.周期性的邪恶女巫死了</b></blockquote></p><p> “Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">First</a> PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.</p><p><blockquote>Impax Asset Management的投资组合经理David Winborne表示：“芯片行业的需求总是由产品周期驱动而繁荣和萧条。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">第一</a>个人电脑，然后是服务器，然后是电话。”但他表示，现在整个经济对芯片的需求已经扩大，因此长期增长情况更容易预测。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>看看你周围。由于我们的生活和工作日益“数字化”，从各个角度来看，终端市场需求更加多样化。将远程办公服务视为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>看好该集团的Gabelli Funds投资组合经理兼科技分析师Hendi Susanto指出，在线购物、云服务、电动汽车、5G手机、智能工厂、大数据计算甚至洗衣机。</blockquote></p><p> “There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool芯片行业分析师John Rotonti表示：“现代数字经济的任何方面都离不开半导体。”“这意味着更多的芯片进入所有领域。长期需求是存在的。”</blockquote></p><p> He’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William&nbsp;Blair&nbsp;analyst Greg Scolaro.</p><p><blockquote>他不是在开玩笑。William Blair分析师Greg Scolaro预测，到2030年，芯片行业的收入将从2020年的4650亿美元翻一番，达到1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> All of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a> chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> confirmed by a majority of large customers.”</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都意味着你所听到的普遍供应短缺“可能要到明年年底才能得到解决”，他说<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>芯片行业分析师Vivek Arya。“这不仅仅是我们的观点，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>得到了大多数大客户的确认。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. The players have consolidated</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.玩家已经巩固</b></blockquote></p><p> All up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.</p><p><blockquote>在生产链的上上下下，从设计到各种类型的设备生产商再到制造，行业参与者已经整合到罗通蒂·评级“赢得”的双头垄断或垄断中。</blockquote></p><p> In chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems&nbsp;and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML&nbsp;in extreme ultraviolet lithography&nbsp;(EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor&nbsp;and Samsung Electronics.</p><p><blockquote>在芯片设计软件中，有Cadence Design Systems和Synopsys。在生产设备方面，公司在极紫外光刻（EUV）领域的ASML等专业领域占据主导地位。制造业由台积电和三星电子主导。</blockquote></p><p> These companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司通过在他们所做的事情上做到最好来赢得他们的利基或双头垄断地位。这使得投资者对它们很感兴趣。罗通蒂表示，整合还意味着参与者在定价和产能方面表现得更加理性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Profitability has improved</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3、盈利能力有所提升</b></blockquote></p><p> This more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.</p><p><blockquote>这种更加理性的行为，加上成本削减，意味着现在的盈利能力远高于历史水平。“过去几年，芯片制造的经济性有了很大改善，”温伯恩说。现金流或EBITDA利润率现在通常超过30%，而十年前还在20%左右。</blockquote></p><p> This has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere &amp; Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”</p><p><blockquote>这对估值有影响。Villere&amp;Co.的投资组合经理Lamar Villere指出，尽管芯片股的交易价格约为市场倍数，但它们看起来很便宜，因为它们是更好的公司。“他们的市盈率并不是泡沫。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>The stocks to buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>值得购买的股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.</p><p><blockquote>以下是我最近调查的芯片专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New management plays</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新的管理策略</b></blockquote></p><p> Though Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm&nbsp;and ON Semiconductor.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Thrivent的高级股票研究分析师Peter Karazeris有理由对该集团持谨慎态度（见下文），但他特别指出了两家公司，它们的业绩可能会因为在新管理层的领导下而得到提振：高通和安森美半导体。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Both have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">ON Semiconductor</a> is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.</p><p><blockquote>两者都具有稳健的盈利能力。高通最近受到了一次性问题的打击，例如德克萨斯州的恶劣天气导致生产中断，但该公司对5G手机趋势有很好的了解。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">安森美半导体</a>正在从手机扩展到汽车、工业和物联网互联设备领域等新领域。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A data center and gaming play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数据中心和游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> Karazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.</p><p><blockquote>Karazeris还特别提到了Nvidia，该公司因其卓越的设计能力而从数据中心和游戏设备芯片需求中获得持续增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Design tool companies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>设计工具公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">Synopsys</a>.</p><p><blockquote>说到设计，当像高通和英伟达这样的公司想要设计芯片时，他们会求助于Cadence Design Systems提供的设计工具和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">新思科技</a>.</blockquote></p><p> Their software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool的Rotonti解释说，他们基于软件的设计工具帮助芯片创新者为他们的芯片创建蓝图，他挑出了这些名字。“他们不是世界上最快的种植者，但他们有很好的利润率。”他们也主宰着这个空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An EUV&nbsp;play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>EUV播放</b></blockquote></p><p> To put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>为了在芯片生产的早期阶段将这些蓝图放在硅上，台积电和三星等公司转向ASML。它的机器使用微小的光脉冲将芯片设计模板到硅片上，这一过程被称为极紫外光刻。“没有人知道如何做到这一点，”罗通蒂说。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，它在供应做到这一点的机器方面拥有垄断地位——这对于任何想要制造领先芯片的公司来说都是必要的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.</p><p><blockquote>以下是芯片行业投资者需要关注的一些主要风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oversupply</b></p><p><blockquote><b>供应过剩</b></blockquote></p><p> Chip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.</p><p><blockquote>芯片生产已经政治化。美国希望在国内生产更多产品，这样就不会受到中国供应链中断的影响。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>Winborne表示，希望到2025年生产70%的芯片，高于目前的5%。</blockquote></p><p> The upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.</p><p><blockquote>这里的结果是，有大量的政府支持来促进制造业——所以会有更多的支持。风险在于未来某个时候供应过剩。这也可能会推动芯片设备的购买，导致未来的平静，这可能会损害设备制造商的销售和利润趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Next, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple&nbsp;and Ammazon.com&nbsp;are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，像Alphabet、苹果和亚马逊这样的大型科技公司都在做自己的芯片设计，这威胁到了做同样事情的专业芯片公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">Quantum</a> computing</b></p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">量子的</a>计算机的</b></blockquote></p><p> Computers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”</p><p><blockquote>William Blair的Scolaro指出，使用基于量子物理学的芯片设计而不是传统半导体架构的计算机具有卓越的性能。“虽然量子计算可能至少在未来五年内不会成为主流，但它有潜力改变从技术到医疗保健的一切。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A disturbing signal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>令人不安的信号</b></blockquote></p><p> A blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.</p><p><blockquote>全球采购经理人指数（PMI）在4月份达到顶峰，然后连续三个月减速。与此同时，芯片销售持续增长。在Thrivent跟踪这一指标的Karazeris指出，通常情况下，两者遵循相同的趋势。他将这种差异归因于库存建设，而库存建设的可持续性不如真实的终端市场需求。因此，他将这种背离视为芯片行业的看跌信号。</blockquote></p><p> Another cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory&nbsp;(DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.</p><p><blockquote>另一个警告信号来自动态随机存取存储器（DRAM）芯片定价的预测疲软。“这些通常是你在周期顶部而不是底部看到的事情，”卡拉泽里斯说。</blockquote></p><p> But it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>但全球PMI放缓也有可能更多地反映了芯片短缺，而不是表明短缺并不真实（只是库存增加）。Leuthold经济学家兼策略师吉姆·保尔森(Jim Paulsen)表示：“这种分歧并不一定意味着芯片订单会滚动并死亡。这意味着芯片制造业必须迎头赶上。”</blockquote></p><p> Ford,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.</p><p><blockquote>例如，福特刚刚宣布，由于芯片短缺，而不是潜在需求短缺，它不得不削减产量。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> cars.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预测，由于高储蓄率、就业和收入反弹以及被压抑的大件商品需求等因素，良好的经济增长是可持续的。如果他是对的，持续的经济实力将支持对所有使用芯片的产品的需求——包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>汽车。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股回调——长期关注这6家公司</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股回调——长期关注这6家公司</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-23 22:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>iShares半导体ETF较近期高点下跌超过6%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b24e4a76a5d1cd0ff030cf1b0eeac0f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.</p><p><blockquote>在股市的滚动调整中，芯片制造商受到的打击比大多数制造商都要严重。</blockquote></p><p> The iShares Semiconductor ETF&nbsp;is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&amp;P 500,Nasdaq&nbsp;Composite&nbsp;and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.</p><p><blockquote>iShares半导体ETF较近期高点下跌超过6%，而标普500、纳斯达克综合指数和道琼斯工业平均指数的跌幅为2%或更少。</blockquote></p><p> Does that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.</p><p><blockquote>这是否意味着芯片股值得买入？或者这个历史上周期性的行业是否会故技重施，进入持续下跌趋势，让你大吃一惊。</blockquote></p><p> A lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”</p><p><blockquote>很大程度上取决于您的时间表，但如果您喜欢持有多年股票而不是租用几天，那么该集团是值得买入的。主要原因：“这次不一样。”</blockquote></p><p> Those are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.</p><p><blockquote>诚然，这些是投资中最可怕的词语之一。但芯片行业已经发生了如此大的变化，现在确实有所不同——这表明它不太可能压垮你。</blockquote></p><p> You’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为没有风险，那你就是个傻瓜。我去看看。但首先，以下是该组织现在“更安全”的三个主要原因，以及过去几天我与之交谈的六位行业专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.周期性的邪恶女巫死了</b></blockquote></p><p> “Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">First</a> PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.</p><p><blockquote>Impax Asset Management的投资组合经理David Winborne表示：“芯片行业的需求总是由产品周期驱动而繁荣和萧条。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">第一</a>个人电脑，然后是服务器，然后是电话。”但他表示，现在整个经济对芯片的需求已经扩大，因此长期增长情况更容易预测。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>看看你周围。由于我们的生活和工作日益“数字化”，从各个角度来看，终端市场需求更加多样化。将远程办公服务视为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>看好该集团的Gabelli Funds投资组合经理兼科技分析师Hendi Susanto指出，在线购物、云服务、电动汽车、5G手机、智能工厂、大数据计算甚至洗衣机。</blockquote></p><p> “There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool芯片行业分析师John Rotonti表示：“现代数字经济的任何方面都离不开半导体。”“这意味着更多的芯片进入所有领域。长期需求是存在的。”</blockquote></p><p> He’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William&nbsp;Blair&nbsp;analyst Greg Scolaro.</p><p><blockquote>他不是在开玩笑。William Blair分析师Greg Scolaro预测，到2030年，芯片行业的收入将从2020年的4650亿美元翻一番，达到1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> All of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a> chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> confirmed by a majority of large customers.”</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都意味着你所听到的普遍供应短缺“可能要到明年年底才能得到解决”，他说<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>芯片行业分析师Vivek Arya。“这不仅仅是我们的观点，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>得到了大多数大客户的确认。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. The players have consolidated</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.玩家已经巩固</b></blockquote></p><p> All up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.</p><p><blockquote>在生产链的上上下下，从设计到各种类型的设备生产商再到制造，行业参与者已经整合到罗通蒂·评级“赢得”的双头垄断或垄断中。</blockquote></p><p> In chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems&nbsp;and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML&nbsp;in extreme ultraviolet lithography&nbsp;(EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor&nbsp;and Samsung Electronics.</p><p><blockquote>在芯片设计软件中，有Cadence Design Systems和Synopsys。在生产设备方面，公司在极紫外光刻（EUV）领域的ASML等专业领域占据主导地位。制造业由台积电和三星电子主导。</blockquote></p><p> These companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司通过在他们所做的事情上做到最好来赢得他们的利基或双头垄断地位。这使得投资者对它们很感兴趣。罗通蒂表示，整合还意味着参与者在定价和产能方面表现得更加理性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Profitability has improved</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3、盈利能力有所提升</b></blockquote></p><p> This more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.</p><p><blockquote>这种更加理性的行为，加上成本削减，意味着现在的盈利能力远高于历史水平。“过去几年，芯片制造的经济性有了很大改善，”温伯恩说。现金流或EBITDA利润率现在通常超过30%，而十年前还在20%左右。</blockquote></p><p> This has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere &amp; Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”</p><p><blockquote>这对估值有影响。Villere&amp;Co.的投资组合经理Lamar Villere指出，尽管芯片股的交易价格约为市场倍数，但它们看起来很便宜，因为它们是更好的公司。“他们的市盈率并不是泡沫。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>The stocks to buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>值得购买的股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.</p><p><blockquote>以下是我最近调查的芯片专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New management plays</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新的管理策略</b></blockquote></p><p> Though Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm&nbsp;and ON Semiconductor.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Thrivent的高级股票研究分析师Peter Karazeris有理由对该集团持谨慎态度（见下文），但他特别指出了两家公司，它们的业绩可能会因为在新管理层的领导下而得到提振：高通和安森美半导体。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Both have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">ON Semiconductor</a> is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.</p><p><blockquote>两者都具有稳健的盈利能力。高通最近受到了一次性问题的打击，例如德克萨斯州的恶劣天气导致生产中断，但该公司对5G手机趋势有很好的了解。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">安森美半导体</a>正在从手机扩展到汽车、工业和物联网互联设备领域等新领域。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A data center and gaming play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数据中心和游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> Karazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.</p><p><blockquote>Karazeris还特别提到了Nvidia，该公司因其卓越的设计能力而从数据中心和游戏设备芯片需求中获得持续增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Design tool companies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>设计工具公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">Synopsys</a>.</p><p><blockquote>说到设计，当像高通和英伟达这样的公司想要设计芯片时，他们会求助于Cadence Design Systems提供的设计工具和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">新思科技</a>.</blockquote></p><p> Their software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool的Rotonti解释说，他们基于软件的设计工具帮助芯片创新者为他们的芯片创建蓝图，他挑出了这些名字。“他们不是世界上最快的种植者，但他们有很好的利润率。”他们也主宰着这个空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An EUV&nbsp;play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>EUV播放</b></blockquote></p><p> To put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>为了在芯片生产的早期阶段将这些蓝图放在硅上，台积电和三星等公司转向ASML。它的机器使用微小的光脉冲将芯片设计模板到硅片上，这一过程被称为极紫外光刻。“没有人知道如何做到这一点，”罗通蒂说。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，它在供应做到这一点的机器方面拥有垄断地位——这对于任何想要制造领先芯片的公司来说都是必要的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.</p><p><blockquote>以下是芯片行业投资者需要关注的一些主要风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oversupply</b></p><p><blockquote><b>供应过剩</b></blockquote></p><p> Chip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.</p><p><blockquote>芯片生产已经政治化。美国希望在国内生产更多产品，这样就不会受到中国供应链中断的影响。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>Winborne表示，希望到2025年生产70%的芯片，高于目前的5%。</blockquote></p><p> The upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.</p><p><blockquote>这里的结果是，有大量的政府支持来促进制造业——所以会有更多的支持。风险在于未来某个时候供应过剩。这也可能会推动芯片设备的购买，导致未来的平静，这可能会损害设备制造商的销售和利润趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Next, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple&nbsp;and Ammazon.com&nbsp;are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，像Alphabet、苹果和亚马逊这样的大型科技公司都在做自己的芯片设计，这威胁到了做同样事情的专业芯片公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">Quantum</a> computing</b></p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">量子的</a>计算机的</b></blockquote></p><p> Computers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”</p><p><blockquote>William Blair的Scolaro指出，使用基于量子物理学的芯片设计而不是传统半导体架构的计算机具有卓越的性能。“虽然量子计算可能至少在未来五年内不会成为主流，但它有潜力改变从技术到医疗保健的一切。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A disturbing signal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>令人不安的信号</b></blockquote></p><p> A blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.</p><p><blockquote>全球采购经理人指数（PMI）在4月份达到顶峰，然后连续三个月减速。与此同时，芯片销售持续增长。在Thrivent跟踪这一指标的Karazeris指出，通常情况下，两者遵循相同的趋势。他将这种差异归因于库存建设，而库存建设的可持续性不如真实的终端市场需求。因此，他将这种背离视为芯片行业的看跌信号。</blockquote></p><p> Another cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory&nbsp;(DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.</p><p><blockquote>另一个警告信号来自动态随机存取存储器（DRAM）芯片定价的预测疲软。“这些通常是你在周期顶部而不是底部看到的事情，”卡拉泽里斯说。</blockquote></p><p> But it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>但全球PMI放缓也有可能更多地反映了芯片短缺，而不是表明短缺并不真实（只是库存增加）。Leuthold经济学家兼策略师吉姆·保尔森(Jim Paulsen)表示：“这种分歧并不一定意味着芯片订单会滚动并死亡。这意味着芯片制造业必须迎头赶上。”</blockquote></p><p> Ford,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.</p><p><blockquote>例如，福特刚刚宣布，由于芯片短缺，而不是潜在需求短缺，它不得不削减产量。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> cars.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预测，由于高储蓄率、就业和收入反弹以及被压抑的大件商品需求等因素，良好的经济增长是可持续的。如果他是对的，持续的经济实力将支持对所有使用芯片的产品的需求——包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>汽车。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-the-pullback-in-chip-stocks-and-focus-on-these-6-companies-for-the-long-haul-11629468380?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOOGL":"谷歌A","SSNLF":"三星电子","TSM":"台积电","SNPS":"新思科技","NVDA":"英伟达","SOXX":"iShares费城交易所半导体ETF","ASML":"阿斯麦","CDNS":"铿腾电子","ON":"安森美半导体","AMZN":"亚马逊","GOOG":"谷歌","AAPL":"苹果","QCOM":"高通"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-the-pullback-in-chip-stocks-and-focus-on-these-6-companies-for-the-long-haul-11629468380?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151608193","content_text":"The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.\nISTOCKPHOTO\nIn the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.\nThe iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&P 500,Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.\nDoes that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.\nA lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”\nThose are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.\nYou’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.\n1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead\n“Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “First PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.\nJust look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like Zoom, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.\n“There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”\nHe’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William Blair analyst Greg Scolaro.\nAll of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says Bank of America chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but one confirmed by a majority of large customers.”\n2. The players have consolidated\nAll up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.\nIn chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML in extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung Electronics.\nThese companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.\n3. Profitability has improved\nThis more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.\nThis has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere & Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”\nThe stocks to buy\nHere are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.\nNew management plays\nThough Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm and ON Semiconductor.\nBoth have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. ON Semiconductor is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.\nA data center and gaming play\nKarazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.\nDesign tool companies\nSpeaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys.\nTheir software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.\nAn EUV play\nTo put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.\nIn other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.\nRisks\nHere are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.\nOversupply\nChip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. China wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.\nThe upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.\nNext, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple and Ammazon.com are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.\nQuantum computing\nComputers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”\nA disturbing signal\nA blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.\nAnother cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.\nBut it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.\nFord,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.\nPaulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including Ford cars.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ON":0.9,"SSNLF":0.9,"AMZN":0.9,"AAPL":0.9,"CDNS":0.9,"GOOG":0.9,"ASML":0.9,"NVDA":0.9,"QCOM":0.9,"SOXX":0.9,"GOOGL":0.9,"TSM":0.9,"SNPS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":866,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":836686456,"gmtCreate":1629476130775,"gmtModify":1631893079544,"author":{"id":"3582282988628365","authorId":"3582282988628365","name":"Biancaneve","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c690c91e593d663e5b2aa7fa7a45cead","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582282988628365","idStr":"3582282988628365"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Can help to like my comment pls? Appreciate it. Thank you.","listText":"Can help to like my comment pls? Appreciate it. Thank you.","text":"Can help to like my comment pls? 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Thank you","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/144611863","repostId":"2151142915","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":511,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":889788109,"gmtCreate":1631179093001,"gmtModify":1631891234446,"author":{"id":"3582282988628365","authorId":"3582282988628365","name":"Biancaneve","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c690c91e593d663e5b2aa7fa7a45cead","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582282988628365","idStr":"3582282988628365"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi pls help me to like my comment. Thank you","listText":"Hi pls help me to like my comment. Thank you","text":"Hi pls help me to like my comment. Thank you","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/889788109","repostId":"1108464667","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1108464667","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631178310,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1108464667?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-09 17:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stock Futures Fall Ahead of Jobless Claims Data<blockquote>初请失业金数据公布前股指期货下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108464667","media":"The Wall Street Journal","summary":"The S&P and the Dow Jones Industrial Average are poised for a fourth consecutive day of declines.\n\nU","content":"<p>  <b>The S&amp;P and the Dow Jones Industrial Average are poised for a fourth consecutive day of declines.</b>  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62ea30e47cbb28a9a602059dd3626f41\" tg-width=\"886\" tg-height=\"522\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">U.S. stock futures fell Thursday ahead of fresh data on jobless claims and an update to the European Central Bank’s monetary policy.</p><p><blockquote><b>标准普尔指数和道琼斯工业平均指数有望连续第四天下跌。</b>在新的初请失业金数据和欧洲央行货币政策更新公布之前，美国股指期货周四下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Futures tied to the S&amp;P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average ticked 0.2% lower, indicating that both indexes willextend lossesafter sliding for three consecutive trading days. Contracts for the Nasdaq-100 edged down 0.2%, suggesting that large technology stocks may also decline at the opening bell.</p><p><blockquote>与标普500和道琼斯工业平均指数相关的期货下跌0.2%，表明这两个指数在连续三个交易日下滑后将扩大跌幅。纳斯达克100指数合约小幅下跌0.2%，表明大型科技股也可能在开盘时下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Investors’ optimism has waned this week following a jobs report that showed asharp slowdown in the pace of hiringin the U.S., and signs that thepace of economic recovery weakenedover the summer due to the Delta variant of Covid-19. Questions around when the Federal Reserve and the ECB willbegin to pare back their stimulus programsis also weighing on sentiment, money managers say.</p><p><blockquote>本周，就业报告显示美国招聘步伐急剧放缓，并且有迹象表明，由于Covid-19德尔塔变异毒株，夏季经济复苏步伐减弱，投资者的乐观情绪有所减弱。基金经理表示，围绕美联储和欧洲央行何时开始削减刺激计划的问题也打压了市场情绪。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re slightly more cautious,” said Charles Hepworth, an investment director at GAM Investments. “It does feel that people are getting a bit freaked out by valuations. The Delta variant transmission is a threat for global growth. If you get tapering too soon, that risks derailing the recovery.”</p><p><blockquote>GAM Investments投资总监查尔斯·赫普沃斯(Charles Hepworth)表示：“我们稍微谨慎一些。”“确实感觉人们对估值有点吓坏了。德尔塔变异毒株传导对全球经济增长构成威胁。如果过早缩减规模，就有可能破坏复苏。”</blockquote></p><p> The Cboe Volatility Index—Wall Street’s so-called fear gauge, also known as the VIX—ticked up to 19.</p><p><blockquote>芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数（华尔街所谓的恐惧指标，也称为VIX）升至19。</blockquote></p><p> The ECB will issue its latest policy statement at 7:45 a.m. ET, with policy makers offering their assessment of the economy and inflation. Some investors are betting that the central bank will disclose plans to startparing back its purchase of government bondsthrough an emergency program that was meant to bolster credit markets and growth during the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>欧洲央行将于美国东部时间上午7:45发布最新政策声明，政策制定者将提供对经济和通胀的评估。一些投资者押注央行将披露通过一项紧急计划开始削减政府债券购买的计划，该计划旨在在疫情期间提振信贷市场和增长。</blockquote></p><p> “The real unknown is if the ECB will revise its inflation and growth forecast,” said Agnès Belaisch, chief European strategist at the Barings Investment Institute. “If it raises its inflation forecast closer to 2%, that will make markets wonder if it could overshoot and if the ECB could have to raise interest rates.”</p><p><blockquote>巴林投资研究所首席欧洲策略师Agnès Belaisch表示：“真正的未知数是欧洲央行是否会修改通胀和增长预测。”“如果它将通胀预期上调至接近2%，这将让市场怀疑通胀是否会超调，以及欧洲央行是否可能不得不加息。”</blockquote></p><p> Investors will get fresh figures at 8:30 a.m. ET on the number of Americans who applied for first-time unemployment benefits, a metric that is seen as a proxy for layoffs, in the week ended Sept. 4. The Fed has said that inflation and the labor market are two key factors it is monitoring to determine changes to monetary policy.</p><p><blockquote>投资者将于美国东部时间上午8:30获得截至9月4日当周首次申请失业救济的美国人人数的最新数据，该指标被视为裁员的指标。美联储曾表示，通胀和劳动力市场是其正在监控的决定货币政策变化的两个关键因素。</blockquote></p><p> In bond markets, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note ticked down to 1.322% from 1.333% Wednesday. Yields fall when prices rise.</p><p><blockquote>在债券市场，10年期国债收益率从周三的1.333%降至1.322%。当价格上涨时，收益率下降。</blockquote></p><p> Overseas, the pan-continental Stoxx Europe 600 shed 0.4%, led by losses in travel and leisure companies.</p><p><blockquote>海外方面，泛大陆斯托克欧洲600指数下跌0.4%，旅游和休闲公司跌幅居前。</blockquote></p><p> Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index declined 2.3% by the end of the day. Shares of Chinese videogame giants Tencent Holdings and NetEase tumbled Thursday after authorities summoned the companies and ordered them to follow new rules for the online-gaming industry. Tencent shed 8.5% in Hong Kong trading, while NetEase tumbled 11%.</p><p><blockquote>截至当天收盘，恒生指数下跌2.3%。中国视频游戏巨头腾讯控股控股和网易的股价周四暴跌，此前当局传唤了这两家公司并命令它们遵守网络游戏行业的新规则。腾讯控股在香港交易中下跌8.5%，网易下跌11%。</blockquote></p><p> Other major indexes in Asia broadly closed lower. South Korea’s Kospi fell 1.5%, Australia’s S&amp;P /ASX200 contracted 1.9% and Japan’s Nikkei 225 declined 0.6%. China’s Shanghai Composite Index bucked the trend, gaining 0.5%.</p><p><blockquote>亚洲其他主要股指普遍收低。韩国综合指数下跌1.5%，澳大利亚S&amp;P/ASX200指数下跌1.9%，日本日经225指数下跌0.6%。中国上证综合指数逆势上涨0.5%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stock Futures Fall Ahead of Jobless Claims Data<blockquote>初请失业金数据公布前股指期货下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStock Futures Fall Ahead of Jobless Claims Data<blockquote>初请失业金数据公布前股指期货下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Wall Street Journal</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-09 17:05</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>The S&amp;P and the Dow Jones Industrial Average are poised for a fourth consecutive day of declines.</b>  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62ea30e47cbb28a9a602059dd3626f41\" tg-width=\"886\" tg-height=\"522\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">U.S. stock futures fell Thursday ahead of fresh data on jobless claims and an update to the European Central Bank’s monetary policy.</p><p><blockquote><b>标准普尔指数和道琼斯工业平均指数有望连续第四天下跌。</b>在新的初请失业金数据和欧洲央行货币政策更新公布之前，美国股指期货周四下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Futures tied to the S&amp;P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average ticked 0.2% lower, indicating that both indexes willextend lossesafter sliding for three consecutive trading days. Contracts for the Nasdaq-100 edged down 0.2%, suggesting that large technology stocks may also decline at the opening bell.</p><p><blockquote>与标普500和道琼斯工业平均指数相关的期货下跌0.2%，表明这两个指数在连续三个交易日下滑后将扩大跌幅。纳斯达克100指数合约小幅下跌0.2%，表明大型科技股也可能在开盘时下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Investors’ optimism has waned this week following a jobs report that showed asharp slowdown in the pace of hiringin the U.S., and signs that thepace of economic recovery weakenedover the summer due to the Delta variant of Covid-19. Questions around when the Federal Reserve and the ECB willbegin to pare back their stimulus programsis also weighing on sentiment, money managers say.</p><p><blockquote>本周，就业报告显示美国招聘步伐急剧放缓，并且有迹象表明，由于Covid-19德尔塔变异毒株，夏季经济复苏步伐减弱，投资者的乐观情绪有所减弱。基金经理表示，围绕美联储和欧洲央行何时开始削减刺激计划的问题也打压了市场情绪。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re slightly more cautious,” said Charles Hepworth, an investment director at GAM Investments. “It does feel that people are getting a bit freaked out by valuations. The Delta variant transmission is a threat for global growth. If you get tapering too soon, that risks derailing the recovery.”</p><p><blockquote>GAM Investments投资总监查尔斯·赫普沃斯(Charles Hepworth)表示：“我们稍微谨慎一些。”“确实感觉人们对估值有点吓坏了。德尔塔变异毒株传导对全球经济增长构成威胁。如果过早缩减规模，就有可能破坏复苏。”</blockquote></p><p> The Cboe Volatility Index—Wall Street’s so-called fear gauge, also known as the VIX—ticked up to 19.</p><p><blockquote>芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数（华尔街所谓的恐惧指标，也称为VIX）升至19。</blockquote></p><p> The ECB will issue its latest policy statement at 7:45 a.m. ET, with policy makers offering their assessment of the economy and inflation. Some investors are betting that the central bank will disclose plans to startparing back its purchase of government bondsthrough an emergency program that was meant to bolster credit markets and growth during the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>欧洲央行将于美国东部时间上午7:45发布最新政策声明，政策制定者将提供对经济和通胀的评估。一些投资者押注央行将披露通过一项紧急计划开始削减政府债券购买的计划，该计划旨在在疫情期间提振信贷市场和增长。</blockquote></p><p> “The real unknown is if the ECB will revise its inflation and growth forecast,” said Agnès Belaisch, chief European strategist at the Barings Investment Institute. “If it raises its inflation forecast closer to 2%, that will make markets wonder if it could overshoot and if the ECB could have to raise interest rates.”</p><p><blockquote>巴林投资研究所首席欧洲策略师Agnès Belaisch表示：“真正的未知数是欧洲央行是否会修改通胀和增长预测。”“如果它将通胀预期上调至接近2%，这将让市场怀疑通胀是否会超调，以及欧洲央行是否可能不得不加息。”</blockquote></p><p> Investors will get fresh figures at 8:30 a.m. ET on the number of Americans who applied for first-time unemployment benefits, a metric that is seen as a proxy for layoffs, in the week ended Sept. 4. The Fed has said that inflation and the labor market are two key factors it is monitoring to determine changes to monetary policy.</p><p><blockquote>投资者将于美国东部时间上午8:30获得截至9月4日当周首次申请失业救济的美国人人数的最新数据，该指标被视为裁员的指标。美联储曾表示，通胀和劳动力市场是其正在监控的决定货币政策变化的两个关键因素。</blockquote></p><p> In bond markets, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note ticked down to 1.322% from 1.333% Wednesday. Yields fall when prices rise.</p><p><blockquote>在债券市场，10年期国债收益率从周三的1.333%降至1.322%。当价格上涨时，收益率下降。</blockquote></p><p> Overseas, the pan-continental Stoxx Europe 600 shed 0.4%, led by losses in travel and leisure companies.</p><p><blockquote>海外方面，泛大陆斯托克欧洲600指数下跌0.4%，旅游和休闲公司跌幅居前。</blockquote></p><p> Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index declined 2.3% by the end of the day. Shares of Chinese videogame giants Tencent Holdings and NetEase tumbled Thursday after authorities summoned the companies and ordered them to follow new rules for the online-gaming industry. Tencent shed 8.5% in Hong Kong trading, while NetEase tumbled 11%.</p><p><blockquote>截至当天收盘，恒生指数下跌2.3%。中国视频游戏巨头腾讯控股控股和网易的股价周四暴跌，此前当局传唤了这两家公司并命令它们遵守网络游戏行业的新规则。腾讯控股在香港交易中下跌8.5%，网易下跌11%。</blockquote></p><p> Other major indexes in Asia broadly closed lower. South Korea’s Kospi fell 1.5%, Australia’s S&amp;P /ASX200 contracted 1.9% and Japan’s Nikkei 225 declined 0.6%. China’s Shanghai Composite Index bucked the trend, gaining 0.5%.</p><p><blockquote>亚洲其他主要股指普遍收低。韩国综合指数下跌1.5%，澳大利亚S&amp;P/ASX200指数下跌1.9%，日本日经225指数下跌0.6%。中国上证综合指数逆势上涨0.5%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stock-markets-dow-update-09-09-2021-11631173050?mod=markets_lead_pos1\">The Wall Street Journal</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stock-markets-dow-update-09-09-2021-11631173050?mod=markets_lead_pos1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108464667","content_text":"The S&P and the Dow Jones Industrial Average are poised for a fourth consecutive day of declines.\n\nU.S. stock futures fell Thursday ahead of fresh data on jobless claims and an update to the European Central Bank’s monetary policy.\nFutures tied to the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average ticked 0.2% lower, indicating that both indexes willextend lossesafter sliding for three consecutive trading days. Contracts for the Nasdaq-100 edged down 0.2%, suggesting that large technology stocks may also decline at the opening bell.\nInvestors’ optimism has waned this week following a jobs report that showed asharp slowdown in the pace of hiringin the U.S., and signs that thepace of economic recovery weakenedover the summer due to the Delta variant of Covid-19. Questions around when the Federal Reserve and the ECB willbegin to pare back their stimulus programsis also weighing on sentiment, money managers say.\n“We’re slightly more cautious,” said Charles Hepworth, an investment director at GAM Investments. “It does feel that people are getting a bit freaked out by valuations. The Delta variant transmission is a threat for global growth. If you get tapering too soon, that risks derailing the recovery.”\nThe Cboe Volatility Index—Wall Street’s so-called fear gauge, also known as the VIX—ticked up to 19.\nThe ECB will issue its latest policy statement at 7:45 a.m. ET, with policy makers offering their assessment of the economy and inflation. Some investors are betting that the central bank will disclose plans to startparing back its purchase of government bondsthrough an emergency program that was meant to bolster credit markets and growth during the pandemic.\n“The real unknown is if the ECB will revise its inflation and growth forecast,” said Agnès Belaisch, chief European strategist at the Barings Investment Institute. “If it raises its inflation forecast closer to 2%, that will make markets wonder if it could overshoot and if the ECB could have to raise interest rates.”\nInvestors will get fresh figures at 8:30 a.m. ET on the number of Americans who applied for first-time unemployment benefits, a metric that is seen as a proxy for layoffs, in the week ended Sept. 4. The Fed has said that inflation and the labor market are two key factors it is monitoring to determine changes to monetary policy.\nIn bond markets, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note ticked down to 1.322% from 1.333% Wednesday. Yields fall when prices rise.\nOverseas, the pan-continental Stoxx Europe 600 shed 0.4%, led by losses in travel and leisure companies.\nHong Kong’s Hang Seng Index declined 2.3% by the end of the day. Shares of Chinese videogame giants Tencent Holdings and NetEase tumbled Thursday after authorities summoned the companies and ordered them to follow new rules for the online-gaming industry. Tencent shed 8.5% in Hong Kong trading, while NetEase tumbled 11%.\nOther major indexes in Asia broadly closed lower. South Korea’s Kospi fell 1.5%, Australia’s S&P /ASX200 contracted 1.9% and Japan’s Nikkei 225 declined 0.6%. China’s Shanghai Composite Index bucked the trend, gaining 0.5%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1599,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":888985360,"gmtCreate":1631422485250,"gmtModify":1631891234438,"author":{"id":"3582282988628365","authorId":"3582282988628365","name":"Biancaneve","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c690c91e593d663e5b2aa7fa7a45cead","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582282988628365","idStr":"3582282988628365"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi someone pls help me to like my comment. Thank you 😄","listText":"Hi someone pls help me to like my comment. Thank you 😄","text":"Hi someone pls help me to like my comment. Thank you 😄","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/888985360","repostId":"1189654544","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1189654544","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631406130,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1189654544?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-12 08:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US IPO Week Ahead: The Fall IPO market kicks off with a 10 IPO week<blockquote>美国IPO周：秋季IPO市场以10周IPO拉开帷幕</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189654544","media":"Renaissance Capital","summary":"After a wave of launches in the short holiday week, 10 IPOs are scheduled to raise over $3 billion i","content":"<p>After a wave of launches in the short holiday week, 10 IPOs are scheduled to raise over $3 billion in the week ahead.</p><p><blockquote>在短暂的假期周经历了一波发行之后，未来一周将有10起IPO计划筹集超过30亿美元的资金。</blockquote></p><p> Tech consultancy&nbsp;<b>Thoughtworks</b>(TWKS) plans to raise $700 million at a $6.3 billion market cap. This agile software developer provides premium, end-to-end digital strategy, design, and engineering services to more than 300 enterprise customers. The company grew revenue at a 14% CAGR from 2017 to 2020, and expanded margins in 2020 and the 1H21.</p><p><blockquote>技术咨询<b>Thoughtworks</b>(TWKS)计划以63亿美元的市值筹集7亿美元。这家敏捷软件开发商为300多家企业客户提供优质的端到端数字战略、设计和工程服务。从2017年到2020年，该公司的收入复合年增长率为14%，并在2020年和2021年上半年扩大了利润率。</blockquote></p><p> Swiss running shoe brand&nbsp;<b>On Holding</b>(ONON) plans to raise $591 million at a $5.9 billion market cap. On is a global provider of premium athletic footwear, apparel, and accessories that are designed using sustainable materials and its proprietary technology. The company has demonstrated growth and profitability, though it faces significant competition from other well-known sportswear brands.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士跑鞋品牌<b>持有时</b>(ONON)计划以59亿美元的市值筹集5.91亿美元。On是一家全球优质运动鞋、服装和配饰供应商，采用可持续材料及其专有技术设计。尽管面临来自其他知名运动服装品牌的激烈竞争，但该公司已展现出增长和盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p> After ending talks to go public via SPAC,<b>Sportradar Group</b>(SRAD) plans to raise $504 million at a $7.9 billion market cap. Covering over 750,000 events annually across 83 sports, this Swiss company provides software, data, and content to sports leagues, betting operators, and media companies. Sportradar is profitable, and growth accelerated in the 1H21 as live sports resumed.</p><p><blockquote>在结束通过SPAC上市的谈判后，<b>Sportradar集团</b>(SRAD)计划以79亿美元的市值筹集5.04亿美元。这家瑞士公司每年报道83项运动的750,000多场赛事，为体育联盟、博彩运营商和媒体公司提供软件、数据和内容。Sportradar已实现盈利，随着体育直播的恢复，2021年上半年增长加速。</blockquote></p><p> Drive-thru coffee chain&nbsp;<b>Dutch Bros</b>(BROS) plans to raise $400 million at a $3.3 billion market cap. This Oregon-based company has a chain of 471 drive-thru coffee shops in the Western US, and it has been able to maintain a track record of same-store sales growth as it has expanded to new states. Insiders received pre-IPO dividends and will sell shares back to the company.</p><p><blockquote>得来速咖啡连锁店<b>荷兰兄弟</b>(BROS)计划以33亿美元的市值筹集4亿美元。这家总部位于俄勒冈州的公司在美国西部拥有471家得来速咖啡店连锁店，随着业务扩展到新州，它一直能够保持同店销售增长的记录。内部人士收到了IPO前的股息，并将把股票卖回给公司。</blockquote></p><p> Healthcare intelligence platform&nbsp;<b>Definitive Healthcare</b>(DH) plans to raise $350 million at a $3.3 billion market cap. This company provides a healthcare commercial intelligence and analytics platform, helping its customers to analyze, navigate, and sell into the complex healthcare ecosystem. Unprofitable with strong growth, Definitive Healthcare will be leveraged post-IPO.</p><p><blockquote>医疗智能平台<b>权威医疗保健</b>(DH)计划以33亿美元的市值筹集3.5亿美元。该公司提供医疗保健商业智能和分析平台，帮助其客户分析、导航和销售复杂的医疗保健生态系统。由于增长强劲，Definitive Healthcare尚未盈利，但将在IPO后进行杠杆化。</blockquote></p><p> Identity management platform&nbsp;<b>ForgeRock</b>(FORG) plans to raise $248 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. The company provides identity and access management software, with a platform to provision, authenticate, and govern all types of digital identities. Unprofitable with high sales and marketing expenses, ForgeRock is a leading next-gen provider in the multi-billion-dollar identity and access market.</p><p><blockquote>身份管理平台<b>ForgeRock</b>(FORG)计划以21亿美元的市值筹集2.48亿美元。该公司提供身份和访问管理软件，以及一个提供、认证和管理所有类型数字身份的平台。由于销售和营销费用高昂，ForgeRock无利可图，是价值数十亿美元的身份和访问市场中领先的下一代提供商。</blockquote></p><p> Immunology biotech&nbsp;<b>DICE Therapeutics</b>(DICE) plans to raise $160 million at a $550 million market cap. This biotech is developing oral small molecule therapies to treat chronic diseases in immunology and other therapeutic areas. DICE plans to initiate a Phase 1 trial of its lead candidate S011806, an oral antagonist with a variety of immunology indications.</p><p><blockquote>免疫学生物技术<b>骰子疗法</b>(DICE)计划以5.5亿美元的市值筹集1.6亿美元。这家生物技术公司正在开发口服小分子疗法，以治疗免疫学和其他治疗领域的慢性疾病。DICE计划启动其主要候选药物S011806的1期试验，这是一种具有多种免疫学适应症的口服拮抗剂。</blockquote></p><p> Surgical robotics developer&nbsp;<b>PROCEPT BioRobotics</b>(PRCT) plans to raise $127 million at a $1.1 billion market cap. This commercial-stage company develops surgical robotic systems for minimally-invasive urologic surgery with an initial focus on treating benign prostatic hyperplasia. PROCEPT BioRobotics is highly unprofitable and saw revenue increase more than sixfold in the 1H21.</p><p><blockquote>手术机器人开发商<b>PROCEPT生物机器人</b>(PRCT)计划以11亿美元的市值筹集1.27亿美元。这家商业阶段的公司开发用于微创泌尿外科手术的手术机器人系统，最初的重点是治疗良性前列腺增生。PROCEPT BioRobotics非常无利可图，2021年上半年收入增长了六倍多。</blockquote></p><p> Oncology biotech&nbsp;<b>Tyra Biosciences</b>(TYRA) plans to raise $101 million at a $584 million market cap. This preclinical biotech is developing FGFR kinase inhibitors for cancer, specifically solid tumors. Tyra’s lead candidate is initially focused on bladder cancer, and the company expects to submit an IND for it in mid-2022.</p><p><blockquote>肿瘤生物技术<b>泰拉生物科学公司</b>(TYRA)计划以5.84亿美元的市值筹集1.01亿美元。这家临床前生物技术公司正在开发用于癌症，特别是实体瘤的FGFR激酶抑制剂。Tyra的主要候选药物最初专注于膀胱癌，该公司预计将于2022年中期提交IND。</blockquote></p><p> Micro-cap gas delivery service&nbsp;<b>EzFill Holdings</b>(EZFL) plans to raise $25 million at a $104 million market cap. This mobile-fueling company provides an on-demand fuel delivery service in Florida via mobile app. Highly unprofitable with explosive growth, EzFill states that it is the dominant player in the South Florida market.</p><p><blockquote>微帽气体输送服务<b>埃兹菲尔控股</b>(EZFL)计划以1.04亿美元的市值筹集2500万美元。这家移动加油公司通过移动应用程序在佛罗里达州提供按需加油服务。由于爆炸性增长，EzFill表示，它是南佛罗里达州市场的主导者。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/718698ff98644c4026f32efe91d076c6\" tg-width=\"1128\" tg-height=\"684\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97fe13300d9e4cf61effc59b9706776a\" tg-width=\"1129\" tg-height=\"247\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>IPO Market Snapshot</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IPO市场快照</b></blockquote></p><p> The Renaissance IPO Indices are market cap weighted baskets of newly public companies. As of 9/9/21, the Renaissance IPO Index was up 7.7% year-to-date, while the S&amp;P 500 was up 19.6%. Renaissance Capital's IPO ETF (NYSE: IPO) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Snowflake (SNOW) and Palantir Technologies (PLTR). The Renaissance International IPO Index was down 11.0% year-to-date, while the ACWX was up 10.0%. Renaissance Capital’s International IPO ETF (NYSE: IPOS) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Smoore International and EQT Partners.</p><p><blockquote>文艺复兴IPO指数是新上市公司的市值加权篮子。截至9/9/21，文艺复兴IPO指数今年迄今上涨了7.7%，而标普500上涨了19.6%。Renaissance Capital的IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPO）跟踪该指数，持有的顶级ETF包括Snowflake（SNOW）和Palantir Technologies（PLTR）。Renaissance International IPO指数今年迄今下跌11.0%，而ACWX指数上涨10.0%。Renaissance Capital的国际IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPOS）跟踪该指数，持有的顶级ETF包括思摩尔国际和殷拓合伙人。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603787993745","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US IPO Week Ahead: The Fall IPO market kicks off with a 10 IPO week<blockquote>美国IPO周：秋季IPO市场以10周IPO拉开帷幕</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS IPO Week Ahead: The Fall IPO market kicks off with a 10 IPO week<blockquote>美国IPO周：秋季IPO市场以10周IPO拉开帷幕</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Renaissance Capital</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-12 08:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>After a wave of launches in the short holiday week, 10 IPOs are scheduled to raise over $3 billion in the week ahead.</p><p><blockquote>在短暂的假期周经历了一波发行之后，未来一周将有10起IPO计划筹集超过30亿美元的资金。</blockquote></p><p> Tech consultancy&nbsp;<b>Thoughtworks</b>(TWKS) plans to raise $700 million at a $6.3 billion market cap. This agile software developer provides premium, end-to-end digital strategy, design, and engineering services to more than 300 enterprise customers. The company grew revenue at a 14% CAGR from 2017 to 2020, and expanded margins in 2020 and the 1H21.</p><p><blockquote>技术咨询<b>Thoughtworks</b>(TWKS)计划以63亿美元的市值筹集7亿美元。这家敏捷软件开发商为300多家企业客户提供优质的端到端数字战略、设计和工程服务。从2017年到2020年，该公司的收入复合年增长率为14%，并在2020年和2021年上半年扩大了利润率。</blockquote></p><p> Swiss running shoe brand&nbsp;<b>On Holding</b>(ONON) plans to raise $591 million at a $5.9 billion market cap. On is a global provider of premium athletic footwear, apparel, and accessories that are designed using sustainable materials and its proprietary technology. The company has demonstrated growth and profitability, though it faces significant competition from other well-known sportswear brands.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士跑鞋品牌<b>持有时</b>(ONON)计划以59亿美元的市值筹集5.91亿美元。On是一家全球优质运动鞋、服装和配饰供应商，采用可持续材料及其专有技术设计。尽管面临来自其他知名运动服装品牌的激烈竞争，但该公司已展现出增长和盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p> After ending talks to go public via SPAC,<b>Sportradar Group</b>(SRAD) plans to raise $504 million at a $7.9 billion market cap. Covering over 750,000 events annually across 83 sports, this Swiss company provides software, data, and content to sports leagues, betting operators, and media companies. Sportradar is profitable, and growth accelerated in the 1H21 as live sports resumed.</p><p><blockquote>在结束通过SPAC上市的谈判后，<b>Sportradar集团</b>(SRAD)计划以79亿美元的市值筹集5.04亿美元。这家瑞士公司每年报道83项运动的750,000多场赛事，为体育联盟、博彩运营商和媒体公司提供软件、数据和内容。Sportradar已实现盈利，随着体育直播的恢复，2021年上半年增长加速。</blockquote></p><p> Drive-thru coffee chain&nbsp;<b>Dutch Bros</b>(BROS) plans to raise $400 million at a $3.3 billion market cap. This Oregon-based company has a chain of 471 drive-thru coffee shops in the Western US, and it has been able to maintain a track record of same-store sales growth as it has expanded to new states. Insiders received pre-IPO dividends and will sell shares back to the company.</p><p><blockquote>得来速咖啡连锁店<b>荷兰兄弟</b>(BROS)计划以33亿美元的市值筹集4亿美元。这家总部位于俄勒冈州的公司在美国西部拥有471家得来速咖啡店连锁店，随着业务扩展到新州，它一直能够保持同店销售增长的记录。内部人士收到了IPO前的股息，并将把股票卖回给公司。</blockquote></p><p> Healthcare intelligence platform&nbsp;<b>Definitive Healthcare</b>(DH) plans to raise $350 million at a $3.3 billion market cap. This company provides a healthcare commercial intelligence and analytics platform, helping its customers to analyze, navigate, and sell into the complex healthcare ecosystem. Unprofitable with strong growth, Definitive Healthcare will be leveraged post-IPO.</p><p><blockquote>医疗智能平台<b>权威医疗保健</b>(DH)计划以33亿美元的市值筹集3.5亿美元。该公司提供医疗保健商业智能和分析平台，帮助其客户分析、导航和销售复杂的医疗保健生态系统。由于增长强劲，Definitive Healthcare尚未盈利，但将在IPO后进行杠杆化。</blockquote></p><p> Identity management platform&nbsp;<b>ForgeRock</b>(FORG) plans to raise $248 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. The company provides identity and access management software, with a platform to provision, authenticate, and govern all types of digital identities. Unprofitable with high sales and marketing expenses, ForgeRock is a leading next-gen provider in the multi-billion-dollar identity and access market.</p><p><blockquote>身份管理平台<b>ForgeRock</b>(FORG)计划以21亿美元的市值筹集2.48亿美元。该公司提供身份和访问管理软件，以及一个提供、认证和管理所有类型数字身份的平台。由于销售和营销费用高昂，ForgeRock无利可图，是价值数十亿美元的身份和访问市场中领先的下一代提供商。</blockquote></p><p> Immunology biotech&nbsp;<b>DICE Therapeutics</b>(DICE) plans to raise $160 million at a $550 million market cap. This biotech is developing oral small molecule therapies to treat chronic diseases in immunology and other therapeutic areas. DICE plans to initiate a Phase 1 trial of its lead candidate S011806, an oral antagonist with a variety of immunology indications.</p><p><blockquote>免疫学生物技术<b>骰子疗法</b>(DICE)计划以5.5亿美元的市值筹集1.6亿美元。这家生物技术公司正在开发口服小分子疗法，以治疗免疫学和其他治疗领域的慢性疾病。DICE计划启动其主要候选药物S011806的1期试验，这是一种具有多种免疫学适应症的口服拮抗剂。</blockquote></p><p> Surgical robotics developer&nbsp;<b>PROCEPT BioRobotics</b>(PRCT) plans to raise $127 million at a $1.1 billion market cap. This commercial-stage company develops surgical robotic systems for minimally-invasive urologic surgery with an initial focus on treating benign prostatic hyperplasia. PROCEPT BioRobotics is highly unprofitable and saw revenue increase more than sixfold in the 1H21.</p><p><blockquote>手术机器人开发商<b>PROCEPT生物机器人</b>(PRCT)计划以11亿美元的市值筹集1.27亿美元。这家商业阶段的公司开发用于微创泌尿外科手术的手术机器人系统，最初的重点是治疗良性前列腺增生。PROCEPT BioRobotics非常无利可图，2021年上半年收入增长了六倍多。</blockquote></p><p> Oncology biotech&nbsp;<b>Tyra Biosciences</b>(TYRA) plans to raise $101 million at a $584 million market cap. This preclinical biotech is developing FGFR kinase inhibitors for cancer, specifically solid tumors. Tyra’s lead candidate is initially focused on bladder cancer, and the company expects to submit an IND for it in mid-2022.</p><p><blockquote>肿瘤生物技术<b>泰拉生物科学公司</b>(TYRA)计划以5.84亿美元的市值筹集1.01亿美元。这家临床前生物技术公司正在开发用于癌症，特别是实体瘤的FGFR激酶抑制剂。Tyra的主要候选药物最初专注于膀胱癌，该公司预计将于2022年中期提交IND。</blockquote></p><p> Micro-cap gas delivery service&nbsp;<b>EzFill Holdings</b>(EZFL) plans to raise $25 million at a $104 million market cap. This mobile-fueling company provides an on-demand fuel delivery service in Florida via mobile app. Highly unprofitable with explosive growth, EzFill states that it is the dominant player in the South Florida market.</p><p><blockquote>微帽气体输送服务<b>埃兹菲尔控股</b>(EZFL)计划以1.04亿美元的市值筹集2500万美元。这家移动加油公司通过移动应用程序在佛罗里达州提供按需加油服务。由于爆炸性增长，EzFill表示，它是南佛罗里达州市场的主导者。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/718698ff98644c4026f32efe91d076c6\" tg-width=\"1128\" tg-height=\"684\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97fe13300d9e4cf61effc59b9706776a\" tg-width=\"1129\" tg-height=\"247\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>IPO Market Snapshot</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IPO市场快照</b></blockquote></p><p> The Renaissance IPO Indices are market cap weighted baskets of newly public companies. As of 9/9/21, the Renaissance IPO Index was up 7.7% year-to-date, while the S&amp;P 500 was up 19.6%. Renaissance Capital's IPO ETF (NYSE: IPO) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Snowflake (SNOW) and Palantir Technologies (PLTR). The Renaissance International IPO Index was down 11.0% year-to-date, while the ACWX was up 10.0%. Renaissance Capital’s International IPO ETF (NYSE: IPOS) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Smoore International and EQT Partners.</p><p><blockquote>文艺复兴IPO指数是新上市公司的市值加权篮子。截至9/9/21，文艺复兴IPO指数今年迄今上涨了7.7%，而标普500上涨了19.6%。Renaissance Capital的IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPO）跟踪该指数，持有的顶级ETF包括Snowflake（SNOW）和Palantir Technologies（PLTR）。Renaissance International IPO指数今年迄今下跌11.0%，而ACWX指数上涨10.0%。Renaissance Capital的国际IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPOS）跟踪该指数，持有的顶级ETF包括思摩尔国际和殷拓合伙人。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/85972/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-The-Fall-IPO-market-kicks-off-with-a-10-IPO-week\">Renaissance Capital</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","TWKS":"Thoughtworks Holding Inc.","PRCT":"PROCEPT BioRobotics","SRAD":"Sportradar Group AG","BROS":"Dutch Bros Inc.","DICE":"DICE Therapeutics, Inc.","TYRA":"Tyra Biosciences, Inc.","DH":"Definitive Healthcare Corp.",".DJI":"道琼斯","FORG":"ForgeRock, Inc.",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","ONON":"On Holding AG"},"source_url":"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/85972/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-The-Fall-IPO-market-kicks-off-with-a-10-IPO-week","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189654544","content_text":"After a wave of launches in the short holiday week, 10 IPOs are scheduled to raise over $3 billion in the week ahead.\nTech consultancy Thoughtworks(TWKS) plans to raise $700 million at a $6.3 billion market cap. This agile software developer provides premium, end-to-end digital strategy, design, and engineering services to more than 300 enterprise customers. The company grew revenue at a 14% CAGR from 2017 to 2020, and expanded margins in 2020 and the 1H21.\nSwiss running shoe brand On Holding(ONON) plans to raise $591 million at a $5.9 billion market cap. On is a global provider of premium athletic footwear, apparel, and accessories that are designed using sustainable materials and its proprietary technology. The company has demonstrated growth and profitability, though it faces significant competition from other well-known sportswear brands.\nAfter ending talks to go public via SPAC,Sportradar Group(SRAD) plans to raise $504 million at a $7.9 billion market cap. Covering over 750,000 events annually across 83 sports, this Swiss company provides software, data, and content to sports leagues, betting operators, and media companies. Sportradar is profitable, and growth accelerated in the 1H21 as live sports resumed.\nDrive-thru coffee chain Dutch Bros(BROS) plans to raise $400 million at a $3.3 billion market cap. This Oregon-based company has a chain of 471 drive-thru coffee shops in the Western US, and it has been able to maintain a track record of same-store sales growth as it has expanded to new states. Insiders received pre-IPO dividends and will sell shares back to the company.\nHealthcare intelligence platform Definitive Healthcare(DH) plans to raise $350 million at a $3.3 billion market cap. This company provides a healthcare commercial intelligence and analytics platform, helping its customers to analyze, navigate, and sell into the complex healthcare ecosystem. Unprofitable with strong growth, Definitive Healthcare will be leveraged post-IPO.\nIdentity management platform ForgeRock(FORG) plans to raise $248 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. The company provides identity and access management software, with a platform to provision, authenticate, and govern all types of digital identities. Unprofitable with high sales and marketing expenses, ForgeRock is a leading next-gen provider in the multi-billion-dollar identity and access market.\nImmunology biotech DICE Therapeutics(DICE) plans to raise $160 million at a $550 million market cap. This biotech is developing oral small molecule therapies to treat chronic diseases in immunology and other therapeutic areas. DICE plans to initiate a Phase 1 trial of its lead candidate S011806, an oral antagonist with a variety of immunology indications.\nSurgical robotics developer PROCEPT BioRobotics(PRCT) plans to raise $127 million at a $1.1 billion market cap. This commercial-stage company develops surgical robotic systems for minimally-invasive urologic surgery with an initial focus on treating benign prostatic hyperplasia. PROCEPT BioRobotics is highly unprofitable and saw revenue increase more than sixfold in the 1H21.\nOncology biotech Tyra Biosciences(TYRA) plans to raise $101 million at a $584 million market cap. This preclinical biotech is developing FGFR kinase inhibitors for cancer, specifically solid tumors. Tyra’s lead candidate is initially focused on bladder cancer, and the company expects to submit an IND for it in mid-2022.\nMicro-cap gas delivery service EzFill Holdings(EZFL) plans to raise $25 million at a $104 million market cap. This mobile-fueling company provides an on-demand fuel delivery service in Florida via mobile app. Highly unprofitable with explosive growth, EzFill states that it is the dominant player in the South Florida market.\n\nIPO Market Snapshot\nThe Renaissance IPO Indices are market cap weighted baskets of newly public companies. As of 9/9/21, the Renaissance IPO Index was up 7.7% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 was up 19.6%. Renaissance Capital's IPO ETF (NYSE: IPO) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Snowflake (SNOW) and Palantir Technologies (PLTR). The Renaissance International IPO Index was down 11.0% year-to-date, while the ACWX was up 10.0%. Renaissance Capital’s International IPO ETF (NYSE: IPOS) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Smoore International and EQT Partners.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DICE":0.9,"TYRA":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"BROS":0.9,"EZFL":0.9,"FORG":0.9,"ONON":0.9,"PRCT":0.9,"DH":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"TWKS":0.9,"SRAD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3167,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":880838842,"gmtCreate":1631029834786,"gmtModify":1631891234454,"author":{"id":"3582282988628365","authorId":"3582282988628365","name":"Biancaneve","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c690c91e593d663e5b2aa7fa7a45cead","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582282988628365","idStr":"3582282988628365"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls help me like my comment&nbsp;","listText":"Pls help me like my comment&nbsp;","text":"Pls help me like my comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880838842","repostId":"2165849354","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":513,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":888532207,"gmtCreate":1631506016909,"gmtModify":1631891234433,"author":{"id":"3582282988628365","authorId":"3582282988628365","name":"Biancaneve","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c690c91e593d663e5b2aa7fa7a45cead","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582282988628365","idStr":"3582282988628365"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi can someone help me to like my comment? 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Thank you!","text":"Hi can someone help me to like my comment? Thank you!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/888535388","repostId":"1108703048","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3380,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":885144309,"gmtCreate":1631770508301,"gmtModify":1631891234422,"author":{"id":"3582282988628365","authorId":"3582282988628365","name":"Biancaneve","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c690c91e593d663e5b2aa7fa7a45cead","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582282988628365","idStr":"3582282988628365"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi can someone help to like my comment? Thank you!","listText":"Hi can someone help to like my comment? Thank you!","text":"Hi can someone help to like my comment? Thank you!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/885144309","repostId":"2167515516","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1775,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":881385207,"gmtCreate":1631293411809,"gmtModify":1631891234450,"author":{"id":"3582282988628365","authorId":"3582282988628365","name":"Biancaneve","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c690c91e593d663e5b2aa7fa7a45cead","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582282988628365","idStr":"3582282988628365"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi can anyone give me 1 like? Thank you!","listText":"Hi can anyone give me 1 like? Thank you!","text":"Hi can anyone give me 1 like? 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Thank you","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/811232163","repostId":"2163853228","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":930,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}