huanbaolux的个人主页 - 老虎社区

huanbaolux

huanbaolux

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IP属地：江苏

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4主题

0勋章

2021-12-12

$Upstart Holdings, Inc.(UPST)$应该是低位了吧，先买入5股[害羞] [害羞]

2021-06-28

$森松国际(02155)$开心的像个胖子

2022-03-30

$诺瓦瓦克斯医药(NVAX)$不可能再低于70了[捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸]

2021-06-29

$奈雪的茶(02150)$真的可以买个自行车

2021-11-03

$小米集团-W(01810)$估计又回购了，我也买点吧[财迷] [财迷]

2022-01-03

$商汤-W(00020)$打新股，又有肉吃了，多谢老虎[财迷] [财迷] [财迷]

2021-11-23

$小米集团-W(01810)$小米就值这个价吧，20块不能再多了[笑哭] [笑哭] [笑哭]

2022-02-15

$特斯拉(TSLA)$这周预测可以回到1000

2021-07-13

$维珍银河(SPCE)$老东西别回来了，死在太空吧[笑哭] [笑哭]

2022-05-11

$Unity Software Inc.(U)$可以抄底，不要被最近不佳的财报所影响

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11:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"习惯了长牛之后，美股“失落的十年”要来了？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2236744038","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"投资者对美国经济将会衰退的担忧日益加深。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>面对四十多年来最高水平的通胀和美联储激进的加息政策，投资者对美国经济将会衰退的担忧日益加深。</p><p>近期市场动荡不安，避险情绪使得投资者纷纷抛售美股，此外，美债和加密货币等也都在下跌。</p><p>《华尔街日报》认为，<b>投资者可能会在一段时间内“无处可去”，或者可能会“结束并崩溃”。</b></p><h2><b>美股过去十年的繁荣</b></h2><p>对于2022年的美股，投资者的期望曾经一度很高。法国投行Natixis于2021年的一项调查显示，投资者对美股未来年回报率的最高预测为17.5%。这与9.8%的长期美股年回报率相比差异非常明显。</p><p>在2021年，投资者乐观地认为，在未来十年内，1万美元的投资抛进美股将能够增长到5万美元左右，比之前预测的2.5万美元翻了一番。</p><p><b>对于投资者的这种乐观情绪，美股过去十年的繁荣为其标上了注解。在过去十年间，被广泛用作衡量美股表现的基准标普500指数的复合年回报率为16.6%，这与投资者对美股未来年回报率的最高预测17.5%相差不远。</b></p><p>企业盈利的增长支撑了美股过去十年的繁荣。根据对冲基金Semper Augustus Investments Group LLC的数据，标普500指数的每股收益平均每年增长7.7%。当企业利润率从可观的9.2%上升到更高的13.4%时，带动了美股的快速增长。</p><p><b>有分析称，即使在科技和地产繁荣的时期，标普500指数成分股公司的利润率超过9%也是少见的，未来美股能否延续前十年的繁荣将是不可预测。</b></p><h2><b>美股回调才刚刚开始？</b></h2><p>在经过了过去几天的企稳反弹后，隔夜美股市场再度出现剧烈动荡。标普500指数大跌4%，纳数跌近5%，创下2020年疫情以来的最大单日跌幅，也基本回吐了过去几天的反弹。</p><p>有分析称，对企业增长前景和盈利压力的担忧是美股再度大跌的主要原因。市场目前普遍预期企业增长前景将停滞或逆转，直接原因是劳动力、材料和运输成本不断上升。另外，投资者对于美股价值是否会回归均值也把握不定。</p><p>美国财长耶轮此前发表讲话称，全球经济前景充满挑战和不确定性，食品和能源价格上涨可能会产生滞胀效应。面对四十多年来最高水平的通胀和美联储激进的加息政策，投资者对经济衰退的担忧日益加深，避险情绪使得投资者抛售美股。</p><p>对冲基金Semper Augustus的总裁兼首席投资官Christopher Bloomstran表示，最近美股的大幅抛售可能是回调的早期阶段。在他看来：</p><blockquote><b>美股市场的本轮调整才刚刚开始</b>，美联储收紧货币政策可能是投资者抛售美股的催化剂。</blockquote><p>上周一，《金融时报》援引私募巨头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/APOL\">阿波罗</a>全球（Apollo Global）的首席执行官Marc Rowan分析称，随着不断飙升的通胀对全球经济造成严重破坏，美联储不得不通过加息来应对，美股将继续下跌。Rowan指出：</p><blockquote><b>美股还会有更多的回调，我们距离股市中性估值还有很长的路要走</b>，债券市场也是如此。</blockquote><p>此外，资管公司GMO的联合创始人Jeremy Grantham预计，美股将会急剧进入熊市，企业普遍面临股价“腰斩”。他在今年1月份表示：</p><blockquote><b>美股目前已经进入了近一百年来的第四次“超级泡沫”。</b>此前投资者的行为类似于在顶部“敲钟”，他们一度疯狂投机，比如炒散户概念股（meme股票）、电动汽车股和加密货币。</blockquote></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>习惯了长牛之后，美股“失落的十年”要来了？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n习惯了长牛之后，美股“失落的十年”要来了？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-19 11:40 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3659770><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>面对四十多年来最高水平的通胀和美联储激进的加息政策，投资者对美国经济将会衰退的担忧日益加深。近期市场动荡不安，避险情绪使得投资者纷纷抛售美股，此外，美债和加密货币等也都在下跌。《华尔街日报》认为，投资者可能会在一段时间内“无处可去”，或者可能会“结束并崩溃”。美股过去十年的繁荣对于2022年的美股，投资者的期望曾经一度很高。法国投行Natixis于2021年的一项调查显示，投资者对美股未来年回报率...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3659770\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3659770","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2236744038","content_text":"面对四十多年来最高水平的通胀和美联储激进的加息政策，投资者对美国经济将会衰退的担忧日益加深。近期市场动荡不安，避险情绪使得投资者纷纷抛售美股，此外，美债和加密货币等也都在下跌。《华尔街日报》认为，投资者可能会在一段时间内“无处可去”，或者可能会“结束并崩溃”。美股过去十年的繁荣对于2022年的美股，投资者的期望曾经一度很高。法国投行Natixis于2021年的一项调查显示，投资者对美股未来年回报率的最高预测为17.5%。这与9.8%的长期美股年回报率相比差异非常明显。在2021年，投资者乐观地认为，在未来十年内，1万美元的投资抛进美股将能够增长到5万美元左右，比之前预测的2.5万美元翻了一番。对于投资者的这种乐观情绪，美股过去十年的繁荣为其标上了注解。在过去十年间，被广泛用作衡量美股表现的基准标普500指数的复合年回报率为16.6%，这与投资者对美股未来年回报率的最高预测17.5%相差不远。企业盈利的增长支撑了美股过去十年的繁荣。根据对冲基金Semper Augustus Investments Group LLC的数据，标普500指数的每股收益平均每年增长7.7%。当企业利润率从可观的9.2%上升到更高的13.4%时，带动了美股的快速增长。有分析称，即使在科技和地产繁荣的时期，标普500指数成分股公司的利润率超过9%也是少见的，未来美股能否延续前十年的繁荣将是不可预测。美股回调才刚刚开始？在经过了过去几天的企稳反弹后，隔夜美股市场再度出现剧烈动荡。标普500指数大跌4%，纳数跌近5%，创下2020年疫情以来的最大单日跌幅，也基本回吐了过去几天的反弹。有分析称，对企业增长前景和盈利压力的担忧是美股再度大跌的主要原因。市场目前普遍预期企业增长前景将停滞或逆转，直接原因是劳动力、材料和运输成本不断上升。另外，投资者对于美股价值是否会回归均值也把握不定。美国财长耶轮此前发表讲话称，全球经济前景充满挑战和不确定性，食品和能源价格上涨可能会产生滞胀效应。面对四十多年来最高水平的通胀和美联储激进的加息政策，投资者对经济衰退的担忧日益加深，避险情绪使得投资者抛售美股。对冲基金Semper Augustus的总裁兼首席投资官Christopher Bloomstran表示，最近美股的大幅抛售可能是回调的早期阶段。在他看来：美股市场的本轮调整才刚刚开始，美联储收紧货币政策可能是投资者抛售美股的催化剂。上周一，《金融时报》援引私募巨头阿波罗全球（Apollo Global）的首席执行官Marc Rowan分析称，随着不断飙升的通胀对全球经济造成严重破坏，美联储不得不通过加息来应对，美股将继续下跌。Rowan指出：美股还会有更多的回调，我们距离股市中性估值还有很长的路要走，债券市场也是如此。此外，资管公司GMO的联合创始人Jeremy 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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2022042518194079b4fc55&s=b><strong>金融界</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>近日，高盛和汇丰两大机构纷纷发表研究报告，看好飞鹤股票价值。其中，高盛认为中国飞鹤买入时机已到。目前疫情和急剧通胀压力已反映在食品和饮料领域估值中，现在憧憬估值或盈利反弹为时过早，但相信最近的回调仍为中国飞鹤等部分股票提供了有吸引力的买入机会。高盛预计，依靠强劲的线下执行、调整后稳定的定价体系以及健康的低渠道库存，中国飞鹤未来仍能实现两位数的收入增长，并继续在婴幼儿配方奶粉、儿童及承成人奶粉领域...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2022042518194079b4fc55&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"06186":"中国飞鹤"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2022042518194079b4fc55&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2230125417","content_text":"近日，高盛和汇丰两大机构纷纷发表研究报告，看好飞鹤股票价值。其中，高盛认为中国飞鹤买入时机已到。目前疫情和急剧通胀压力已反映在食品和饮料领域估值中，现在憧憬估值或盈利反弹为时过早，但相信最近的回调仍为中国飞鹤等部分股票提供了有吸引力的买入机会。高盛预计，依靠强劲的线下执行、调整后稳定的定价体系以及健康的低渠道库存，中国飞鹤未来仍能实现两位数的收入增长，并继续在婴幼儿配方奶粉、儿童及承成人奶粉领域保持多年市场份额。汇丰研究亦建议投资者关注四个投资主题，香港市场复苏、利率上升、企业股票回购浪潮和具深度价值股份。其中，汇丰将飞鹤列入港股深度价值股份推介名单。此前，汇丰研究就发表过内地奶业报告，直指中国飞鹤现价太便宜，维持「买入」评级。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"06186":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5234,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":611227751,"gmtCreate":1650514583370,"gmtModify":1650514583370,"author":{"id":"3582162082899132","authorId":"3582162082899132","name":"huanbaolux","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f11f880fdf0384e5a8b5f752a2127d6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582162082899132","idStr":"3582162082899132"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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19:59","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"小米：3月31日回购713.16万股，耗资约9976万港元","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120679139","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"小米集团：于2022年3月31日赎回713.16万股股票，价格为13.92港元-14.02港元，共耗资约9976万港元。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>小米集团：于2022年3月31日赎回713.16万股股票，价格为13.92港元-14.02港元，共耗资约9976万港元。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/592d0f5fe40e4be6926fe215bac80cc9\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>小米：3月31日回购713.16万股，耗资约9976万港元</title>\n<style 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08:01</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>当地时间3月23日，美国贸易代表办公室表示，将恢复部分中国进口商品的关税豁免。</p><p>此次关税豁免涉及此前549项待定产品中的352项。该规定将适用于2021年10月12日至2022年12月31日之间进口自中国的商品。（央视）<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/372f5b50bc6326eeb4805a5213ea4f61\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5f37245cdd9f577000f7193c7907d3f","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121964242","content_text":"当地时间3月23日，美国贸易代表办公室表示，将恢复部分中国进口商品的关税豁免。此次关税豁免涉及此前549项待定产品中的352项。该规定将适用于2021年10月12日至2022年12月31日之间进口自中国的商品。（央视）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0,".SPX":0,".IXIC":0}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2523,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":637820953,"gmtCreate":1648014724778,"gmtModify":1648014724778,"author":{"id":"3582162082899132","authorId":"3582162082899132","name":"huanbaolux","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f11f880fdf0384e5a8b5f752a2127d6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582162082899132","idStr":"3582162082899132"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"赶紧结束战争，和平万岁","listText":"赶紧结束战争，和平万岁","text":"赶紧结束战争，和平万岁","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/637820953","repostId":"2221092422","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2221092422","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1648001676,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2221092422?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-03-23 10:14","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"小摩称泽连斯基接近“投降”？ 市场情绪大反转，该如何布局","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2221092422","media":"同花顺财经期货","summary":"近期整个市场投机情绪却迎来了峰回路转。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>局势反转？俄欧股市大涨原油回落</b></p><p>很多人调侃称，俄乌战争，远看是俄罗斯打乌克兰、近看是俄罗斯打欧盟、再仔细一看是美国资本打欧盟。不管“战争逼迫资本回流美国境内”的阴谋论是否为真，欧盟在本轮冲突中损失惨重确实是不争的事实。</p><p>然而，近期整个市场投机情绪却是迎来了峰回路转。股市方面，美股和中概股的反弹姑且不提，连饱受冲突困扰资金大量出逃的欧洲股市居然也呈现出了全线飘红的态势。</p><p>同时，被戏称为“俄乌谈判进展晴雨表”的原油也意外迎来了回落态势。周二，国际油价小幅回落。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90e24b6eebb5b4dda04d935ec35b5d86\" tg-width=\"1284\" tg-height=\"877\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>那么问题来了，是什么导致了盘面氛围的突然反转？后市我们又该何去何从呢？</p><p><b>市场为和谈做准备：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>暗指泽连斯基接近“投降”</b></p><p>毫无疑问，市场对俄乌和谈预期的变化是本轮盘面反复的直接原因。</p><p>据央视报道，乌克兰总统泽连斯基在接受乌克兰媒体采访时表示，<b>他已经准备好讨论，作出有关乌克兰不寻求加入北约的承诺，以换取停火、俄军撤军以及乌克兰的安全保障。</b>其提到，事实很清楚，乌克兰不能获准加入北约，是因为北约不想与俄罗斯发生冲突。泽连斯基还表示，乌俄谈判有可能达成妥协，不过首先应当是实现停火。他还再次呼吁与俄罗斯总统普京进行直接会谈；而美联社则更近一步，直接点出“泽连斯基似乎准备放弃对克里米亚和顿巴斯地区的领土主张”；同时，<b>摩根大通交易部门在昨日(周二)亦是撰文暗指泽连斯基已经接近“投降”，并开始对达成和平协议后的市场走势作出假设。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30fc9b7b4356a600e7025ac79c3b4fe3\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"118\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>欧美股市走强及原油的普跌发生在“消息广泛传播”后。这说明，市场已经开始“有意识的押注”了。</p><p><b>德国态度强硬：欧盟需要进口俄罗斯石油</b></p><p>除开乌克兰在最敏感的领土问题上“意见松动”外，欧美内部对禁止俄罗斯原油进口议题的分歧亦是引发市场投机氛围的一大核心要素。</p><p>据了解，当前欧盟各国已就“禁运俄罗斯石油”的假设做出了新一轮的磋商，但这一情形遭到了德国和匈牙利的强烈反对。</p><p>尽管24日拜登将在北约峰会上就“敲定新一轮对俄制裁”进行呼吁，但基于当前欧美内部的猛烈分歧，市场对起达成“原油禁运”的目的持悲观态度。</p><p>注：欧盟40%的能源供应依赖俄罗斯进口，德国是欧盟大型经济体中对俄罗斯天然气依赖程度最深的国家之一，同时也购买了最多的俄罗斯原油。近日，俄罗斯曾警告成，如果对俄原油禁运，俄方将切断对欧盟的天然气管道输送。</p><p><b>现货告急：提防近月原油历史性逼空风险</b></p><p>当然，需要提醒的是。尽管市场对油价的后市预期开始趋于和缓，但它也带来额外的风险因素，即“近月合约远强于远月”。</p><p>本周一，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>大宗商品团队向专业客户发布了一份题为“库欣缓冲库存所剩无几”的必读报告。报告指出，WTI原油日历价差最近飙升至十年高位，虽然现已有所稳定，但仍然处于高位，这不利于鼓励交易商储存石油。库欣<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HUBG\">枢纽</a>的库存年初至今已消耗约1300万桶，上周跌到2400万桶，是页岩时代的最低季节性水平(俗称“罐底”)。――库欣油罐的顶部是浮动的，机构通常会利用上方盖子的浮起高度来提前判定现有库存。</p><p>撇开库欣地区原油现货较远月高企不谈，更致命的是，包括墨西哥湾在内的周边地区还有着超高溢价，这将进一步阻止原油流进库存。美国银行认为，随着交割日的临近，由于原油库存处于历史低位，所以“无油交割”的情况或将致使空头合约持有人争相买入以求按期平仓，但是这可能会致使油价到达“任何位置”，甚至出现“历史性逼空”。</p><p>综上所述，“远月不看好，但近月存在逼仓风险”的思路在近期油市已经“越来越有受众”了。若持有相关仓单，应适度提高警惕。</p></body></html>","source":"ths_fut","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>小摩称泽连斯基接近“投降”？ 市场情绪大反转，该如何布局</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n小摩称泽连斯基接近“投降”？ 市场情绪大反转，该如何布局\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-23 10:14 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://goodsfu.10jqka.com.cn/20220323/c637718309.shtml><strong>同花顺财经期货</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>局势反转？俄欧股市大涨原油回落很多人调侃称，俄乌战争，远看是俄罗斯打乌克兰、近看是俄罗斯打欧盟、再仔细一看是美国资本打欧盟。不管“战争逼迫资本回流美国境内”的阴谋论是否为真，欧盟在本轮冲突中损失惨重确实是不争的事实。然而，近期整个市场投机情绪却是迎来了峰回路转。股市方面，美股和中概股的反弹姑且不提，连饱受冲突困扰资金大量出逃的欧洲股市居然也呈现出了全线飘红的态势。同时，被戏称为“俄乌谈判进展晴雨表...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://goodsfu.10jqka.com.cn/20220323/c637718309.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec55645df2a853f64791de2a1ad27327","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","USO":"美国原油ETF"},"source_url":"http://goodsfu.10jqka.com.cn/20220323/c637718309.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2221092422","content_text":"局势反转？俄欧股市大涨原油回落很多人调侃称，俄乌战争，远看是俄罗斯打乌克兰、近看是俄罗斯打欧盟、再仔细一看是美国资本打欧盟。不管“战争逼迫资本回流美国境内”的阴谋论是否为真，欧盟在本轮冲突中损失惨重确实是不争的事实。然而，近期整个市场投机情绪却是迎来了峰回路转。股市方面，美股和中概股的反弹姑且不提，连饱受冲突困扰资金大量出逃的欧洲股市居然也呈现出了全线飘红的态势。同时，被戏称为“俄乌谈判进展晴雨表”的原油也意外迎来了回落态势。周二，国际油价小幅回落。那么问题来了，是什么导致了盘面氛围的突然反转？后市我们又该何去何从呢？市场为和谈做准备：摩根大通暗指泽连斯基接近“投降”毫无疑问，市场对俄乌和谈预期的变化是本轮盘面反复的直接原因。据央视报道，乌克兰总统泽连斯基在接受乌克兰媒体采访时表示，他已经准备好讨论，作出有关乌克兰不寻求加入北约的承诺，以换取停火、俄军撤军以及乌克兰的安全保障。其提到，事实很清楚，乌克兰不能获准加入北约，是因为北约不想与俄罗斯发生冲突。泽连斯基还表示，乌俄谈判有可能达成妥协，不过首先应当是实现停火。他还再次呼吁与俄罗斯总统普京进行直接会谈；而美联社则更近一步，直接点出“泽连斯基似乎准备放弃对克里米亚和顿巴斯地区的领土主张”；同时，摩根大通交易部门在昨日(周二)亦是撰文暗指泽连斯基已经接近“投降”，并开始对达成和平协议后的市场走势作出假设。欧美股市走强及原油的普跌发生在“消息广泛传播”后。这说明，市场已经开始“有意识的押注”了。德国态度强硬：欧盟需要进口俄罗斯石油除开乌克兰在最敏感的领土问题上“意见松动”外，欧美内部对禁止俄罗斯原油进口议题的分歧亦是引发市场投机氛围的一大核心要素。据了解，当前欧盟各国已就“禁运俄罗斯石油”的假设做出了新一轮的磋商，但这一情形遭到了德国和匈牙利的强烈反对。尽管24日拜登将在北约峰会上就“敲定新一轮对俄制裁”进行呼吁，但基于当前欧美内部的猛烈分歧，市场对起达成“原油禁运”的目的持悲观态度。注：欧盟40%的能源供应依赖俄罗斯进口，德国是欧盟大型经济体中对俄罗斯天然气依赖程度最深的国家之一，同时也购买了最多的俄罗斯原油。近日，俄罗斯曾警告成，如果对俄原油禁运，俄方将切断对欧盟的天然气管道输送。现货告急：提防近月原油历史性逼空风险当然，需要提醒的是。尽管市场对油价的后市预期开始趋于和缓，但它也带来额外的风险因素，即“近月合约远强于远月”。本周一，美国银行大宗商品团队向专业客户发布了一份题为“库欣缓冲库存所剩无几”的必读报告。报告指出，WTI原油日历价差最近飙升至十年高位，虽然现已有所稳定，但仍然处于高位，这不利于鼓励交易商储存石油。库欣枢纽的库存年初至今已消耗约1300万桶，上周跌到2400万桶，是页岩时代的最低季节性水平(俗称“罐底”)。――库欣油罐的顶部是浮动的，机构通常会利用上方盖子的浮起高度来提前判定现有库存。撇开库欣地区原油现货较远月高企不谈，更致命的是，包括墨西哥湾在内的周边地区还有着超高溢价，这将进一步阻止原油流进库存。美国银行认为，随着交割日的临近，由于原油库存处于历史低位，所以“无油交割”的情况或将致使空头合约持有人争相买入以求按期平仓，但是这可能会致使油价到达“任何位置”，甚至出现“历史性逼空”。综上所述，“远月不看好，但近月存在逼仓风险”的思路在近期油市已经“越来越有受众”了。若持有相关仓单，应适度提高警惕。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"USO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1335,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":605799011,"gmtCreate":1639239476416,"gmtModify":1639239476416,"author":{"id":"3582162082899132","authorId":"3582162082899132","name":"huanbaolux","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f11f880fdf0384e5a8b5f752a2127d6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582162082899132","idStr":"3582162082899132"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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