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2021-10-09

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S&P 500 ends lower after U.S. September jobs miss<blockquote>美国 9 月份就业岗位未达预期后标普500收低</blockquote>

2021-10-11

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2021-06-02

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S&P 500 dips, as healthcare weighs; Dow ends higher<blockquote>随着医疗保健的压力，标普500下跌；道琼斯指数收高</blockquote>

2021-10-08

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September Payrolls Preview: It Will Be A Beat, The Question Is How Big<blockquote>9 月份就业预览：这将是一个节拍，问题是有多大</blockquote>

2021-08-06

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2021-06-18

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2021-05-19

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JD.com to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in the Cards?<blockquote>京东将公布第一季度收益：前景如何？</blockquote>

2021-05-18

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2021-08-02

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Alibaba,Uber, DraftKings, GM, Roku, EA, ViacomCBS, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>阿里巴巴、Uber、DraftKings、通用汽车、Roku、EA、维亚康姆哥伦比亚广播公司和其他投资者本周值得关注的股票</blockquote>

2021-06-19

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Adobe Getting Lift From Economic Reopening Post-Pandemic<blockquote>Adobe 从疫情后经济重新开放中获得提振</blockquote>

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07:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"S&P 500 ends lower after U.S. September jobs miss<blockquote>美国 9 月份就业岗位未达预期后标普500收低</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100565546","media":"Reuters","summary":" - The S&P 500 ended lower on Friday after data showed weaker jobs growth than expected in September, yet investors still expected the Federal Reserve to begin tapering asset purchases this year.Wall Street’s three main indexes were mixed for much of the session before losing ground toward the end. All three indexes posted weekly gains.Comcast Corp tumbled after Wells Fargo cut its price target on the media company, while Charter Communications Inc fell after Wells Fargo downgraded that cable op","content":"<p>(Reuters) - The S&amp;P 500 ended lower on Friday after data showed weaker jobs growth than expected in September, yet investors still expected the Federal Reserve to begin tapering asset purchases this year.</p><p><blockquote>（路透社） - 标普500周五收低，此前数据显示9月就业增长弱于预期，但投资者仍预计美联储今年将开始缩减资产购买规模。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street’s three main indexes were mixed for much of the session before losing ground toward the end. All three indexes posted weekly gains.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街三大股指在盘中的大部分时间里涨跌互现，但在接近尾声时有所回落。这三个指数均出现周涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> Comcast Corp tumbled after Wells Fargo cut its price target on the media company, while Charter Communications Inc fell after Wells Fargo downgraded that cable operator to “underweight” from “overweight”.</p><p><blockquote>康卡斯特公司（Comcast Corp）在富国银行（Wells Fargo）下调了该媒体公司的目标价后暴跌，而特许通信公司（Charter Communications Inc）在富国银行（Wells Fargo）将该有线电视运营商的评级从 “跑赢大盘 ”下调至 “跑输大盘 ”后暴跌。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies were among the biggest drags on the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq.</p><p><blockquote>这两家公司都是标普500和纳斯达克最大的拖累之一。</blockquote></p><p> Real estate and utilities were the poorest performers among 11 S&amp;P 500 sector indexes, down 1.1% and 0.7%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>在11个标普500行业指数中，房地产和公用事业表现最差，分别下跌1.1%和0.7%。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 energy sector index jumped 3.1%, with oil up more than 4% on the week as a global energy crunch has boosted prices to their highest since 2014.</p><p><blockquote>标普500能源行业指数上涨 3.1%，其中油价本周上涨超过 4%，原因是全球能源危机将油价推至 2014 年以来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> Chevron and Exxon Mobil rallied more than 2% and were among the companies giving the S&amp;P 500 the greatest lift.</p><p><blockquote>雪佛龙和埃克森美孚股价上涨超过 2%，是对标普500提振最大的公司之一。</blockquote></p><p> The Labor Department’s nonfarm payrolls report showed the U.S. economy in September created the fewest jobs in nine months as hiring dropped at schools and some businesses were short of workers. The unemployment rate fell to 4.8% from 5.2% in August and average hourly earnings rose 0.6%, which was more than expected.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工部的非农就业报告显示，9月份美国经济创造的就业岗位是九个月来最少的，原因是学校招聘人数下降，一些企业工人短缺。失业率从8月份的5.2%降至4.8%，平均时薪增长0.6%，超出预期。</blockquote></p><p> “I think that the Federal Reserve made it very clear that they don’t need a blockbuster jobs report to taper in November,” said Kathy Lien, Managing Director at BK Asset Management in New York. “I think the Fed remains on track.”</p><p><blockquote>“纽约 BK 资产管理公司董事总经理凯西-连（Kathy Lien）说：”我认为美联储已经非常明确地表示，他们不需要一份重磅就业报告就能在 11 月份缩减规模。“我认为美联储仍在正轨上。”</blockquote></p><p> Futures on the federal funds rate priced in a quarter-point tightening by the Federal Reserve by November or December next year.</p><p><blockquote>联邦基金利率期货定价为美联储明年 11 月或 12 月收紧 25 个基点。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 0.03% to end at 34,746.25 points, while the S&amp;P 500 lost 0.19% to 4,391.35.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数下跌0.03%，收于34,746.25点，标普500指数下跌0.19%，至4,391.35点。</blockquote></p><p> The Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.51% to 14,579.54.</p><p><blockquote>纳斯达克综合指数下跌 0.51%，至 14,579.54 点。</blockquote></p><p> For the week, the S&amp;P 500 rose 0.8%, the Dow added 1.2% and the Nasdaq gained 0.1%.</p><p><blockquote>本周，标普500指数上涨0.8%，道琼斯指数上涨1.2%，纳斯达克指数上涨0.1%。</blockquote></p><p> Third-quarter reporting season kicks off next week, with JPMorgan Chase and other big banks among the first to post results. Investors are focused on global supply chain problems and labor shortages.</p><p><blockquote>第三季度财报季将于下周拉开帷幕，摩根大通和其他大银行将率先发布业绩。投资者关注全球供应链问题和劳动力短缺。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts see Q3 U.S. earnings growth of 30%:</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计美国第三季度盈利增长 30%：</blockquote></p><p> Analysts on average expect S&amp;P 500 earnings per share for the quarter to be up almost 30%, according to Refinitiv.</p><p><blockquote>路孚特表示，分析师平均预计标普500本季度每股收益将增长近 30%。</blockquote></p><p> “I think it’s going to be a dicey earnings season,” warned Liz Young, head of investment strategy at SoFi in New York. “If supply-chain issues are driving up costs, a company with strong pricing power can pass through those rising costs. But you can’t pass through a labor shortage if you can’t find workers to hire.”</p><p><blockquote>“纽约 SoFi 投资策略主管 Liz Young 警告说：”我认为这将是一个充满风险的财报季。“如果供应链问题推高了成本上升，那么一家拥有强大定价权的公司就可以转嫁这些不断上涨的成本。但如果你找不到工人来雇佣，你就无法转嫁劳动力短缺的问题。”</blockquote></p><p> Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.24-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.52-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所下跌发行量与上涨发行量的比例为 1.24 比 1；在纳斯达克，1.52 比 1 的比率有利于下跌者。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 posted 26 new 52-week highs and 3 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 86 new highs and 113 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下 26 个 52 周新高和 3 个新低；纳斯达克综合指数创下86个新高和113个新低。</blockquote></p><p> Volume on U.S. exchanges was 9.2 billion shares, compared with the 11 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所的成交量为92亿股，而过去20个交易日的平均成交量为110亿股。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>S&P 500 ends lower after U.S. September jobs miss<blockquote>美国 9 月份就业岗位未达预期后标普500收低</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS&P 500 ends lower after U.S. September jobs miss<blockquote>美国 9 月份就业岗位未达预期后标普500收低</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-09 07:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Reuters) - The S&amp;P 500 ended lower on Friday after data showed weaker jobs growth than expected in September, yet investors still expected the Federal Reserve to begin tapering asset purchases this year.</p><p><blockquote>（路透社） - 标普500周五收低，此前数据显示9月就业增长弱于预期，但投资者仍预计美联储今年将开始缩减资产购买规模。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street’s three main indexes were mixed for much of the session before losing ground toward the end. All three indexes posted weekly gains.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街三大股指在盘中的大部分时间里涨跌互现，但在接近尾声时有所回落。这三个指数均出现周涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> Comcast Corp tumbled after Wells Fargo cut its price target on the media company, while Charter Communications Inc fell after Wells Fargo downgraded that cable operator to “underweight” from “overweight”.</p><p><blockquote>康卡斯特公司（Comcast Corp）在富国银行（Wells Fargo）下调了该媒体公司的目标价后暴跌，而特许通信公司（Charter Communications Inc）在富国银行（Wells Fargo）将该有线电视运营商的评级从 “跑赢大盘 ”下调至 “跑输大盘 ”后暴跌。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies were among the biggest drags on the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq.</p><p><blockquote>这两家公司都是标普500和纳斯达克最大的拖累之一。</blockquote></p><p> Real estate and utilities were the poorest performers among 11 S&amp;P 500 sector indexes, down 1.1% and 0.7%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>在11个标普500行业指数中，房地产和公用事业表现最差，分别下跌1.1%和0.7%。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 energy sector index jumped 3.1%, with oil up more than 4% on the week as a global energy crunch has boosted prices to their highest since 2014.</p><p><blockquote>标普500能源行业指数上涨 3.1%，其中油价本周上涨超过 4%，原因是全球能源危机将油价推至 2014 年以来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> Chevron and Exxon Mobil rallied more than 2% and were among the companies giving the S&amp;P 500 the greatest lift.</p><p><blockquote>雪佛龙和埃克森美孚股价上涨超过 2%，是对标普500提振最大的公司之一。</blockquote></p><p> The Labor Department’s nonfarm payrolls report showed the U.S. economy in September created the fewest jobs in nine months as hiring dropped at schools and some businesses were short of workers. The unemployment rate fell to 4.8% from 5.2% in August and average hourly earnings rose 0.6%, which was more than expected.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工部的非农就业报告显示，9月份美国经济创造的就业岗位是九个月来最少的，原因是学校招聘人数下降，一些企业工人短缺。失业率从8月份的5.2%降至4.8%，平均时薪增长0.6%，超出预期。</blockquote></p><p> “I think that the Federal Reserve made it very clear that they don’t need a blockbuster jobs report to taper in November,” said Kathy Lien, Managing Director at BK Asset Management in New York. “I think the Fed remains on track.”</p><p><blockquote>“纽约 BK 资产管理公司董事总经理凯西-连（Kathy Lien）说：”我认为美联储已经非常明确地表示，他们不需要一份重磅就业报告就能在 11 月份缩减规模。“我认为美联储仍在正轨上。”</blockquote></p><p> Futures on the federal funds rate priced in a quarter-point tightening by the Federal Reserve by November or December next year.</p><p><blockquote>联邦基金利率期货定价为美联储明年 11 月或 12 月收紧 25 个基点。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 0.03% to end at 34,746.25 points, while the S&amp;P 500 lost 0.19% to 4,391.35.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数下跌0.03%，收于34,746.25点，标普500指数下跌0.19%，至4,391.35点。</blockquote></p><p> The Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.51% to 14,579.54.</p><p><blockquote>纳斯达克综合指数下跌 0.51%，至 14,579.54 点。</blockquote></p><p> For the week, the S&amp;P 500 rose 0.8%, the Dow added 1.2% and the Nasdaq gained 0.1%.</p><p><blockquote>本周，标普500指数上涨0.8%，道琼斯指数上涨1.2%，纳斯达克指数上涨0.1%。</blockquote></p><p> Third-quarter reporting season kicks off next week, with JPMorgan Chase and other big banks among the first to post results. Investors are focused on global supply chain problems and labor shortages.</p><p><blockquote>第三季度财报季将于下周拉开帷幕，摩根大通和其他大银行将率先发布业绩。投资者关注全球供应链问题和劳动力短缺。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts see Q3 U.S. earnings growth of 30%:</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计美国第三季度盈利增长 30%：</blockquote></p><p> Analysts on average expect S&amp;P 500 earnings per share for the quarter to be up almost 30%, according to Refinitiv.</p><p><blockquote>路孚特表示，分析师平均预计标普500本季度每股收益将增长近 30%。</blockquote></p><p> “I think it’s going to be a dicey earnings season,” warned Liz Young, head of investment strategy at SoFi in New York. “If supply-chain issues are driving up costs, a company with strong pricing power can pass through those rising costs. But you can’t pass through a labor shortage if you can’t find workers to hire.”</p><p><blockquote>“纽约 SoFi 投资策略主管 Liz Young 警告说：”我认为这将是一个充满风险的财报季。“如果供应链问题推高了成本上升，那么一家拥有强大定价权的公司就可以转嫁这些不断上涨的成本。但如果你找不到工人来雇佣，你就无法转嫁劳动力短缺的问题。”</blockquote></p><p> Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.24-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.52-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所下跌发行量与上涨发行量的比例为 1.24 比 1；在纳斯达克，1.52 比 1 的比率有利于下跌者。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 posted 26 new 52-week highs and 3 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 86 new highs and 113 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下 26 个 52 周新高和 3 个新低；纳斯达克综合指数创下86个新高和113个新低。</blockquote></p><p> Volume on U.S. exchanges was 9.2 billion shares, compared with the 11 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所的成交量为92亿股，而过去20个交易日的平均成交量为110亿股。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks/us-stocks-sp-500-ends-lower-after-u-s-september-jobs-miss-idUSL1N2R42C9\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks/us-stocks-sp-500-ends-lower-after-u-s-september-jobs-miss-idUSL1N2R42C9","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100565546","content_text":"(Reuters) - The S&P 500 ended lower on Friday after data showed weaker jobs growth than expected in September, yet investors still expected the Federal Reserve to begin tapering asset purchases this year.\nWall Street’s three main indexes were mixed for much of the session before losing ground toward the end. All three indexes posted weekly gains.\nComcast Corp tumbled after Wells Fargo cut its price target on the media company, while Charter Communications Inc fell after Wells Fargo downgraded that cable operator to “underweight” from “overweight”.\nBoth companies were among the biggest drags on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.\nReal estate and utilities were the poorest performers among 11 S&P 500 sector indexes, down 1.1% and 0.7%, respectively.\nThe S&P 500 energy sector index jumped 3.1%, with oil up more than 4% on the week as a global energy crunch has boosted prices to their highest since 2014.\nChevron and Exxon Mobil rallied more than 2% and were among the companies giving the S&P 500 the greatest lift.\nThe Labor Department’s nonfarm payrolls report showed the U.S. economy in September created the fewest jobs in nine months as hiring dropped at schools and some businesses were short of workers. The unemployment rate fell to 4.8% from 5.2% in August and average hourly earnings rose 0.6%, which was more than expected.\n“I think that the Federal Reserve made it very clear that they don’t need a blockbuster jobs report to taper in November,” said Kathy Lien, Managing Director at BK Asset Management in New York. “I think the Fed remains on track.”\nFutures on the federal funds rate priced in a quarter-point tightening by the Federal Reserve by November or December next year.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 0.03% to end at 34,746.25 points, while the S&P 500 lost 0.19% to 4,391.35.\nThe Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.51% to 14,579.54.\nFor the week, the S&P 500 rose 0.8%, the Dow added 1.2% and the Nasdaq gained 0.1%.\nThird-quarter reporting season kicks off next week, with JPMorgan Chase and other big banks among the first to post results. Investors are focused on global supply chain problems and labor shortages.\nAnalysts see Q3 U.S. earnings growth of 30%:\nAnalysts on average expect S&P 500 earnings per share for the quarter to be up almost 30%, according to Refinitiv.\n“I think it’s going to be a dicey earnings season,” warned Liz Young, head of investment strategy at SoFi in New York. “If supply-chain issues are driving up costs, a company with strong pricing power can pass through those rising costs. But you can’t pass through a labor shortage if you can’t find workers to hire.”\nDeclining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.24-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.52-to-1 ratio favored decliners.\nThe S&P 500 posted 26 new 52-week highs and 3 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 86 new highs and 113 new lows.\nVolume on U.S. exchanges was 9.2 billion shares, compared with the 11 billion average over the last 20 trading days.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2791,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":821928561,"gmtCreate":1633689175864,"gmtModify":1633689176180,"author":{"id":"3582059706803344","authorId":"3582059706803344","name":"YJ12","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/053b18ef264ba18845e0b6ec9727bcb6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582059706803344","idStr":"3582059706803344"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821928561","repostId":"1135993400","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135993400","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633675137,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1135993400?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-08 14:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"September Payrolls Preview: It Will Be A Beat, The Question Is How Big<blockquote>9 月份就业预览：这将是一个节拍，问题是有多大</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135993400","media":"zerohedge","summary":"After a strong initial claims report and a solid ADP private payrolls print, all eyes turn to the mo","content":"<p>After a strong initial claims report and a solid ADP private payrolls print, all eyes turn to the most important economic data point of the week, and the month, Friday's nonfarm payrolls report due at 830am ET on Friday, where consensus expects a 500K print- more than double last month's disappointing 235K print - as well as a drop in the unemployment rate to 5.1% and an increase in average hourly earnings to 4.6%. And unlike last month, when wecorrectly predicted the big miss in August payrolls, this time we agree that tomorrow's report will be a beat, the only question is how big.</p><p><blockquote>在强劲的初始申请失业救济金报告和稳健的 ADP 私人就业数据之后，所有人的目光都转向了本周和本月最重要的经济数据点，即美国东部时间周五上午 8:30 发布的周五非农就业报告，普遍预计将有 50 万人就业，是上个月令人失望的 23.5 万人就业的两倍多，失业率将降至 5.1%，平均时薪将增至 4.6%。与上个月不同，当时我们正确预测了 8 月份就业人数的重大失误，这次我们同意明天的报告将是一个打击，唯一的问题是有多大。</blockquote></p><p> Here is a snapshot of what to expect tomorrow:</p><p><blockquote>以下是明天的快照：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Total Payrolls: 500K, Last 235K</li>  <li>Private Payrolls: 450K, Last 243K</li>  <li>Unemployment Rate: 5.1%, Last 5.2%</li>  <li>Labor force participation rate: 61.8%, Last 61.7%</li>  <li>Average Hourly Earnings Y/Y: 4.6%, Last 4.3%</li>  <li>Average Weekly Hours: 34.7, Last 34.7</li> </ul> As&nbsp;Newsquawk&nbsp;writes in its NFP preview, September’s jobs data, the last before the Fed’s November 3rd policy meeting, will be framed in the context of the central bank’s expected taper announcement, where a merely satisfactory report would likely to be enough for the FOMC to greenlight a November announcement to scale-back its USD 120BN/month asset purchases.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>总就业人数：50万，最后23.5万</li><li>私人就业人数：45万，最后24.3万</li><li>失业率：5.1%，去年5.2%</li><li>劳动力参与率：61.8%，去年61.7%</li><li>平均每小时收益同比：4.6%，去年 4.3%</li><li>平均每周小时数：34.7，最近34.7</li></ul>正如 Newsquawk 在其 NFP 预览中所写的那样，9 月份的就业数据是美联储 11 月 3 日政策会议前的最后一份数据，它将以美联储预期宣布缩减规模为背景，而一份令人满意的报告可能就足以让联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 在 11 月份宣布缩减每月 1200 亿美元的资产购买规模。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman economists are more bullish than normal, and estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 600k in September, above consensus of +500k, and they note that \"labor demand remains very strong,&nbsp;<b>and we believe the nationwide expiration of enhanced unemployment beneﬁts on September 5 boosted effective labor supply and job growth—as it did in July and August in states that ended federal beneﬁts early.\"</b>As a result, Goldman is assuming a 200k boost in tomorrow’s numbers and a larger boost in October. The bank also believes the reopening of schools contributed to September job growth, by around 150k. Despite these tailwinds, Big Data employment signals were mixed, and dining activity rebounded only marginally.</p><p><blockquote>高盛经济学家比正常情况更加乐观，估计 9 月份非农就业人数增加 60 万人，高于 +50 万人的共识，他们指出“劳动力需求仍然非常强劲，<b>我们相信，9 月 5 日全国范围内增加的失业救济金到期促进了有效劳动力供应和就业增长——就像 7 月和 8 月提前结束联邦福利的州所做的那样。”</b>因此，高盛预计明天的数字将增加 20 万，10 月份的数字将增加更多。该银行还认为，学校的重新开放促进了9月份就业岗位的增长，增加了约15万个。尽管有这些有利因素，大数据就业信号好坏参半，餐饮活动仅小幅反弹。</blockquote></p><p> Labor market proxies have been constructive for the month: ADP’s gauge of payrolls surprised to the upside, although analysts continue to note that the direct relationship between the official data and the ADP’s gauge is tenuous, despite the gap being under 100k over the last three reports. The number of initial jobless claims and continuing claims has eased back between the survey periods of the August and September jobs data, although analysts note that more recent releases have shown an uptick in claims potentially clouding the outlook. The ISM business surveys have signaled employment growth in the month, with manufacturing employment rising into growth territory again, but services sector hiring cooled a little in the month, but remains expansionary; survey commentary continues to allude to a tight labour market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September employment situation report at 13:30BST/08:30EDT on October 8th.</p><p><blockquote>本月劳动力市场指标具有建设性： 尽管分析师们继续指出，官方数据与 ADP 指标之间的直接关系很脆弱，但在过去三份报告中，官方数据与 ADP 指标之间的直接关系很脆弱。在 8 月至 9 月就业数据调查期间，首次申请失业救济人数和持续申请失业救济人数有所回落，尽管分析师指出，最近公布的数据显示申请失业救济人数上升，这可能会给前景蒙上阴影。ISM商业调查显示本月就业增长，制造业就业再次进入增长区域，但服务业招聘本月略有降温，但仍保持扩张性；调查评论继续暗示劳动力市场紧张。美国劳工统计局将于10月8日英国夏令时13:30/美国东部时间08:30发布9月份就业形势报告。</blockquote></p><p> <b>POLICY</b>: The September jobs report might have reduced relevance on trading conditions given that Fed officials have effectively confirmed that, barring a collapse in the jobs data, it is on course to announce a tapering of its asset purchases at the November 3rd meeting. Accordingly, trading risks may be skewed to the downside, rather than to the upside, where a significant payrolls miss may present obstacles to the Fed announcing its taper. Additionally, it is worth being cognizant of how efforts in Washington to raise the debt ceiling are progressing; as yet, officials have not struck a deal, and are in the process of enacting stop gap legislation to allow funding into December; some analysts suggest that the Fed may be reticent to tighten policy in the face of potential default risks.</p><p><blockquote><b>政策</b>：鉴于美联储官员已有效确认，除非就业数据暴跌，否则美联储将在 11 月 3 日的会议上宣布缩减资产购买规模，因此 9 月份就业报告可能会降低其对交易条件的相关性。因此，交易风险可能会向下行倾斜，而不是向上行倾斜，因为就业数据的大幅下降可能会给美联储宣布缩减规模带来障碍。此外，值得认识到华盛顿提高债务上限的努力是如何取得进展的；到目前为止，官员们尚未达成协议，并正在制定权宜之计立法，以允许在 12 月之前提供资金；有分析师暗示，面对潜在的违约风险，美联储可能不愿收紧政策。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PAYROLLS:</b>The consensus looks for 500k nonfarm payrolls to be added to the US economy in September (prev. 235k), which would be a cooler rate of growth than the three- and six-month average rate, though in line with the 12-month average (3-month average is 750k/month, the six-month average is 653k/month, and the 12-month average is 503k/month – that technically at least suggests an improving rate of payrolls growth in recent months).<b>Aggregating the nonfarm payrolls data since March 2020, around 5.33mln Americans remain out of work relative to pre-pandemic levels.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>工资单：</b>共识预计9月份美国经济将增加50万非农就业人数（上一篇。23.5万），这将是一个比三个月和六个月平均增长率更冷的增长率，尽管与12个月的平均水平一致（3个月平均水平为75万/月，6个月平均水平为65.3万/月，12个月平均水平为50.3万/月——从技术上讲，这至少表明最近几个月的就业增长率有所提高）。<b>汇总2020年3月以来的非农就业数据，相对于大流行前的水平，约有533万美国人仍然失业。</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>MEASURES OF SLACK:</b>The Unemployment Rate is expected at 5.1% (prev. 5.2%); Labour Force Participation previously at 61.7% vs 63.2% pre-pandemic; U6 measure of underemployment was previously at 8.8% vs 7.0% prepandemic; Employment-population ratio was previously 58.5% vs 61.1% pre-pandemic. These measures of slack are likely to provide more insight into how Fed officials are judging labour market progress, with many in recent months noting that they are closely watching the Underemployment Rate, Participation Rate, and the Employment-Population Ratio for a better handle on the level of slack that remains in the economy. Analysts would be encouraged the closer these get to pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>松弛的度量：</b>失业率预计为5.1%（之前为5.2%）；劳动力参与率此前为61.7%，而大流行前为63.2%；U6 就业不足指标此前为 8.8%，而大流行前为 7.0%；就业人口比率此前为58.5%，而疫情前为61.1%。这些松弛的衡量标准可能会让人们更深入地了解美联储官员如何判断劳动力市场的进展，近几个月来，许多官员指出，他们正在密切关注就业不足率、参与率和就业与人口比率，以更好地处理经济中仍然存在的松弛程度。分析师们会受到鼓舞，因为这些数字越接近大流行前的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>EARNINGS:</b>Average Hourly Earnings expected at +0.4% M/M (prev. +0.6%); Average Hourly Earnings expected at +4. 6% Y/Y (prev. +4.3%); Average Workweek Hours expected at 34.7hrs (prev. 34.7hrs). Aggregating the nonfarm payrolls data since March 2020, around 5.33mln Americans still remain out of work relative to pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>收益：</b>平均每小时收益预计为 +0.4%（之前为 +0.6%）；平均小时收益预计同比+4.6%（前值+4.3%）；平均每周工作时间预计为34.7小时（以前。34.7小时）.汇总2020年3月以来的非农就业数据，相对于大流行前的水平，约有533万美国人仍然失业。</blockquote></p><p> <b>ADP:</b>The ADP National Employment Report showed 568k jobs added to the US economy in September, topping expectations for 428k, and a better pace than the prior 340k (revised down from 374k initially reported). ADP itself said that the labor market recovery continued to make progress despite the marked slowdown in the rate of job additions from the 748k pace seen in Q2. It also noted that Leisure &amp; Hospitality remained one of the biggest beneficiaries to the recovery, though said that hiring was still heavily impacted by the trajectory of the pandemic, especially for small firms. ADP thinks that the current bottlenecks in hiring will likely fade as the pandemic situation continues to improve, and that could set the stage for solid job gains in the months ahead. On the data methodology, analysts continue to note that ADP's model incorporates much of the prior official payrolls data, other macroeconomic variables, as well as data from its own payrolls platform; \"Payrolls were soft in August, thanks to the hit to the services sector from the Delta variant, and that weakness likely constrained ADP data,\" Pantheon Macroeconomics said. \"The overshoot to consensus, therefore, suggests that the other inputs to ADP’s model were stronger than we expected, but none of the details are published, so we don’t know if the overshoot was model-driven or due to stronger employment data at ADP’s clients.\"</p><p><blockquote><b>ADP：</b>ADP全国就业报告显示，9月份美国经济新增就业岗位56.8万个，高于预期的42.8万个，增速好于之前的34万个（从最初报告的37.4万个下调）。ADP本身表示，尽管第二季度的74.8万个工作岗位增加速度明显放缓，但劳动力市场复苏继续取得进展。它还指出，休闲和酒店业仍然是复苏的最大受益者之一，尽管表示招聘仍然受到疫情轨迹的严重影响，特别是对小公司而言。ADP认为，随着疫情形势的持续改善，当前的招聘瓶颈可能会消失，这可能会为未来几个月的稳健就业增长创造条件。在数据方法方面，分析师继续指出，ADP的模型纳入了许多以前的官方就业数据、其他宏观经济变量以及来自其自己的就业平台的数据；万神殿宏观经济学表示：“由于德尔塔变异毒株对服务业的打击，8 月份就业人数疲软，这种疲软可能会限制 ADP 数据。”“因此，与共识的超调表明，ADP模型的其他输入比我们预期的要强，但没有公布任何细节，因此我们不知道超调是模型驱动的，还是由于ADP客户的就业数据更强劲”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS:</b>Initial jobless claims data for the week that coincides with the BLS jobs report survey window saw claims at around 351k – little changed from the 349k for the August jobs data survey window – where analysts said seasonal factors played a role in boosting the weekly data, while there may have been some lingering Hurricane Ida effects; the corresponding continuing claims data has fallen to 2.802mln in the September survey period vs 2.908mln in the August survey period. In aggregate, the data continues to point to declining trend, although in recent weeks the level of jobless claims has been picking up again.</p><p><blockquote><b>首次申请失业救济人数：</b>与 BLS 就业报告调查窗口相吻合的一周首次申请失业救济人数约为 35.1 万人，与 8 月份就业数据调查窗口的 34.9 万人几乎没有变化，分析师表示，季节性因素在提振每周数据方面发挥了作用，而可能存在一些挥之不去的飓风艾达的影响；相应的持续索赔数据在9月份调查期间降至280.2万份，而8月份调查期间为290.8万份。总体而言，数据继续指向下降趋势，尽管最近几周申请失业救济人数的水平再次回升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BUSINESS SURVEYS</b>: The Services and Manufacturing ISM reports showed divergent trends in September, with the service sector employment sub-index easing a little to 53.0 from 53.7, signalling growth but at a slower rate, while the manufacturing employment sub-index rose back into expansionary territory, printing 50.2 from 49.0 prior. On the manufacturing sector, ISM said companies were still struggling to meet labour-management plans, but noted some modest signs of progress compared to previous months: \"Less than 5% of comments noted improvements regarding employment, compared to none in August,\" it said, \"an overwhelming majority of panelists indicate their companies are hiring or attempting to hire,\" where around 85% of responses were about seeking additional staffing, while nearly half of the respondents expressed difficulty in filling positions, an increase from August. \"The increasing frequency of comments on turnover rates and retirements continued a trend that began in August,\" ISM said. Meanwhile, in the services sector, employment activity rose for a third straight month; respondents noted that employees were flocking to better-paying jobs and there was a lack of pipeline to replace these staff, while other respondents talked of labor shortages being experienced at all levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>商业调查</b>: 9 月份服务业和制造业 ISM 报告显示了不同的趋势，服务业就业分项指数从 53.7 小幅放缓至 53.0，表明增长，但速度较慢，而制造业就业分项指数回升至扩张区域，从之前的 49.0 升至 50.2。在制造业方面，ISM 表示，企业仍在努力实现劳动力管理计划，但指出与前几个月相比有一些适度的进展迹象：“不到 5% 的评论指出就业有所改善，而 8 月份则没有，”它表示，“绝大多数小组成员表示他们的公司正在招聘或试图招聘，”其中约 85% 的回答是关于寻求额外的员工，而近一半的受访者表示难以填补职位，这一比例较 8 月份有所增加。ISM 表示：“有关离职率和退休的评论越来越频繁，延续了 8 月份开始的趋势。”与此同时，服务业就业活动连续第三个月上升；受访者指出，员工纷纷涌向薪酬更高的工作，缺乏替代这些员工的渠道，而其他受访者则谈到各级都出现了劳动力短缺。</blockquote></p><p> <b>ARGUING FOR A BETTER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT</b>:</p><p><blockquote><b>争取一份好于预期的报告</b>:</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>End of federal enhanced unemployment beneﬁts</b>. The expiration of federal beneﬁts in some states boosted labor supply and job-ﬁnding rates over the summer, and all remaining such programs expired on September 5. The July and August indicated a cumulative 6pp boost to job-ﬁnding probabilities from June to August for workers losing $300 top-up payments and a 12pp boost for workers losing all beneﬁts.<b>Some of the 6mn workers who lost some or all beneﬁts on September 5 got a job by September 18—in time to be counted in tomorrow’s data.</b>Goldman assumes a +200k boost to job growth from this channel, with a larger increase in subsequent reports (+1.3mn cumulatively by year end).</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa8e5900cf66c76d4b64055f84e58048\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>联邦增强失业救济金的终止</b>.一些州的联邦福利到期提高了夏季的劳动力供应和就业率，所有剩余的此类计划都于9月5日到期。7 月和 8 月显示，从 6 月到 8 月，失去 300 美元充值付款的工人的求职概率累计增加了 6 个百分点，失去所有福利的工人的求职概率累计增加了 12 个百分点。<b>9 月 5 日失去部分或全部福利的 600 万工人中，有一些人在 9 月 18 日找到了工作--及时计入明天的数据。</b>高盛假设这一渠道将推动就业增长+20万人，随后的报告将有更大的增长（截至年底累计+130万人）。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>School reopening</b>. The largest 100 school districts are all open for in-person learning, catalyzing the return of many previously furloughed teachers and support staff. While full normalization of employment levels would contribute 600k jobs (mom sa, see left panel of the chart below), some janitors and support staff did not return due to hybrid teaching models, and job openings in the sector are only 200k above the pre-crisis level (see right panel). Relatedly, the BLS’s seasonal factors already embed the usual rehiring of education workers on summer layoff, so if fewer janitors returned to work than in a typical September, this would reduce seasonally adjusted job growth, other things equal. Taken together, assume a roughly 150k boost from the reopening of schools in tomorrow’s report.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff3e69723b40e0d372ec2bebecb38b1f\" tg-width=\"799\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>学校复课</b>最大的100个学区都开放面对面学习，促使许多以前休假的教师和辅助人员重返校园。虽然就业水平的完全正常化将提供60万个工作岗位（mom sa，见下图左图），但由于混合教学模式，一些看门人和辅助人员没有返回，该部门的职位空缺仅比危机前的水平高出20万个（见右图）。与此相关的是，在其他条件相同的情况下，劳工统计局的季节性因素已经包含了教育工作者通常在夏季裁员时重新招聘的情况，因此，如果重返工作岗位的清洁工少于典型的 9 月份，这将降低经季节性调整后的就业增长。综合来看，在明天的报告中，学校重新开放将带来大约 15 万人的增长。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Job availability</b>. The Conference Board labor differential—the difference between the percent of respondents saying jobs are plentiful and those saying jobs are hardto get - edged down to 42.5 from 44.4, still an elevated level. Additionally, JOLTS job openings increased by 749k in July to a new record high of 10.9mn.</li>  <li><b>ADP.</b>Private sector employment in the ADP report increased by 568k in September, above consensus expectations for a 430k gain, implying strong growth in the underlying ADP sample. Additionally, schools generally do not use ADP payroll software, arguing for a larger gain from school reopening in the official payroll measure.</li> </ul> <b>ARGUING FOR A WEAKER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT:</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>工作可用性</b>世界大型企业联合会劳动力差异——认为工作机会充足的受访者和认为工作机会很难找到的受访者之间的差异——从44.4%降至42.5%，仍然是一个较高的水平。此外，JOLTS 7月份职位空缺增加了74.9万个，达到1090万个的新高。</li><li><b>ADP。</b>ADP报告中的私营部门就业人数在9月份增加了56.8万人，高于市场普遍预期的43万人，这意味着基础ADP样本的强劲增长。此外，学校通常不使用ADP工资软件，认为在官方工资衡量标准中，学校重新开放会带来更大的收益。</li></ul><b>主张报告弱于预期：</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Delta variant.</b>Rebounding covid infection rates weighed on services consumption and the labor market in August. And while US case counts began to decline in early September, restaurant seatings on Open Table rebounded only marginally. leisure and hospitality employment rose in September, but probably not at the ~400k monthly pace of June and July.</li>  <li><b>Employer surveys</b>. The employment components of our business surveys were flat to down, whereas we and consensus forecast a pickup in job growth. Goldman's services survey employment tracker remained unchanged at 54.5 and the manufacturing survey employment tracker declined 0.4pt to 57.8. And while the Goldman Sachs Analyst Index (GSAI) decreased 0.8% to 68.5, the employment component rose1.9% to 71.9.</li> </ul> <b>NEUTRAL FACTORS:</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>德尔塔变异毒株.</b>8 月份新冠感染率反弹给服务消费和劳动力市场带来压力。虽然美国病例数在9月初开始下降，但开放餐桌的餐厅座位仅略有反弹。9 月份休闲和酒店业就业人数有所增长，但可能不会达到 6 月和 7 月每月约 40 万人的增长速度。</li><li><b>雇主调查</b>我们的商业调查中的就业组成部分持平或下降，而我们和共识预测就业增长将回升。高盛服务业调查就业跟踪指数保持在 54.5 不变，制造业调查就业跟踪指数下降 0.4 个百分点至 57.8。高盛分析师指数 (GSAI) 下降 0.8% 至 68.5，而就业成分上升 1.9% 至 71.9。</li></ul><b>中性因素：</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Big Data.</b>High-frequency data on the labor market were mixed between the August and September survey weeks, on net providing little guidance about the underlying pace of job growth. Three of the five measures tracked indicate an at-or-above-consensus gain (Census Small Business Pulse +0.5mn, ADP +0.6mn,Google mobility +2mn), but the Homebase data was an outlier to the downside. At face value, it would indicate a large outright decline in payrolls. The Census Household Pulse (-0.6mn) was also quite weak, though encouragingly, it also indicated a large drop in childcare-related labor supply headwinds as schools reopened.</li>  <li><b>Seasonality.</b>The September seasonal hurdle is relatively low: the BLS adjustment factors generally assume a 600-700k decline in private payrolls (which exclude public schools), compared to around -100k on average in July and August. Continued labor shortages encouraged firms to lay off fewer workers at the end of summer. Partially offsetting this tailwind, the September seasonal factors may have evolved unfavorably due to the crisis—specifically by fitting to last September’s reopening-driven job surge (private payrolls +932k mom sa).</li>  <li><b>Jobless claims.</b>Initial jobless claims fell during the September payroll month, averaging 339k per week vs. 378k in August despite a boost from individuals transitioning or attempting to transition to state programs. Across all employee programs including emergency benefits, continuing claims fell dramatically (-3.3mn)–but again for non-economic reasons (federal enhanced programs expired). Continuing claims in regular state programs decreased 106k from survey week to survey week.</li>  <li><b>Job cuts.</b>Announced layoffs reported by Challenger, Gray &amp; Christmas rebounded 11% month-over-month in September after decreasing by 14% over the prior two months (SA by GS). Nonetheless, layoffs remain near the three-decade low on this measure (in 1993).</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>大数据。</b>8 月至 9 月调查周期间，劳动力市场的高频数据好坏参半，对就业增长的基本速度几乎没有提供指导。跟踪的五项指标中有三项显示增幅达到或高于共识（人口普查小企业脉冲+50万，ADP+60万，谷歌移动+200万），但Homebase数据是下行的异常值。从表面上看，这将表明就业人数大幅下降。人口普查家庭脉搏（-60万）也相当疲软，尽管令人鼓舞，但它也表明随着学校重新开放，与儿童保育相关的劳动力供应逆风大幅下降。</li><li><b>季节性。</b>9月份的季节性障碍相对较低：BLS调整因素通常假设私人就业人数（不包括公立学校）下降60-70万人，而7月和8月的平均就业人数约为-10万人。持续的劳动力短缺鼓励企业在夏季结束时减少裁员。9 月份的季节性因素可能因危机而发生了不利的演变，这在一定程度上抵消了这一推动力--特别是与去年 9 月份重新开放推动的就业激增相吻合（私人就业人数 +93.2 万 mom sa）。</li><li><b>申请失业救济金。</b>尽管个人过渡到或试图过渡到国家计划，但9月份的首次申请失业救济人数有所上升，平均每周为33.9万人，而8月份为37.8万人。在包括紧急福利在内的所有员工计划中，持续索赔大幅下降（-330万）——但同样是因为非经济原因（联邦增强型计划到期）。从调查周到调查周，常规州项目的持续申请减少了10.6万人。</li><li><b>裁员。</b>Challenger、Gray &amp; Christmas 报告的宣布裁员人数在前两个月下降 14% 后，9 月份环比反弹 11%（SA by GS）。尽管如此，这一指标的裁员仍接近三十年来的最低点（1993 年）。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>September Payrolls Preview: It Will Be A Beat, The Question Is How Big<blockquote>9 月份就业预览：这将是一个节拍，问题是有多大</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSeptember Payrolls Preview: It Will Be A Beat, The Question Is How Big<blockquote>9 月份就业预览：这将是一个节拍，问题是有多大</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-08 14:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>After a strong initial claims report and a solid ADP private payrolls print, all eyes turn to the most important economic data point of the week, and the month, Friday's nonfarm payrolls report due at 830am ET on Friday, where consensus expects a 500K print- more than double last month's disappointing 235K print - as well as a drop in the unemployment rate to 5.1% and an increase in average hourly earnings to 4.6%. And unlike last month, when wecorrectly predicted the big miss in August payrolls, this time we agree that tomorrow's report will be a beat, the only question is how big.</p><p><blockquote>在强劲的初始申请失业救济金报告和稳健的 ADP 私人就业数据之后，所有人的目光都转向了本周和本月最重要的经济数据点，即美国东部时间周五上午 8:30 发布的周五非农就业报告，普遍预计将有 50 万人就业，是上个月令人失望的 23.5 万人就业的两倍多，失业率将降至 5.1%，平均时薪将增至 4.6%。与上个月不同，当时我们正确预测了 8 月份就业人数的重大失误，这次我们同意明天的报告将是一个打击，唯一的问题是有多大。</blockquote></p><p> Here is a snapshot of what to expect tomorrow:</p><p><blockquote>以下是明天的快照：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Total Payrolls: 500K, Last 235K</li>  <li>Private Payrolls: 450K, Last 243K</li>  <li>Unemployment Rate: 5.1%, Last 5.2%</li>  <li>Labor force participation rate: 61.8%, Last 61.7%</li>  <li>Average Hourly Earnings Y/Y: 4.6%, Last 4.3%</li>  <li>Average Weekly Hours: 34.7, Last 34.7</li> </ul> As&nbsp;Newsquawk&nbsp;writes in its NFP preview, September’s jobs data, the last before the Fed’s November 3rd policy meeting, will be framed in the context of the central bank’s expected taper announcement, where a merely satisfactory report would likely to be enough for the FOMC to greenlight a November announcement to scale-back its USD 120BN/month asset purchases.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>总就业人数：50万，最后23.5万</li><li>私人就业人数：45万，最后24.3万</li><li>失业率：5.1%，去年5.2%</li><li>劳动力参与率：61.8%，去年61.7%</li><li>平均每小时收益同比：4.6%，去年 4.3%</li><li>平均每周小时数：34.7，最近34.7</li></ul>正如 Newsquawk 在其 NFP 预览中所写的那样，9 月份的就业数据是美联储 11 月 3 日政策会议前的最后一份数据，它将以美联储预期宣布缩减规模为背景，而一份令人满意的报告可能就足以让联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 在 11 月份宣布缩减每月 1200 亿美元的资产购买规模。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman economists are more bullish than normal, and estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 600k in September, above consensus of +500k, and they note that \"labor demand remains very strong,&nbsp;<b>and we believe the nationwide expiration of enhanced unemployment beneﬁts on September 5 boosted effective labor supply and job growth—as it did in July and August in states that ended federal beneﬁts early.\"</b>As a result, Goldman is assuming a 200k boost in tomorrow’s numbers and a larger boost in October. The bank also believes the reopening of schools contributed to September job growth, by around 150k. Despite these tailwinds, Big Data employment signals were mixed, and dining activity rebounded only marginally.</p><p><blockquote>高盛经济学家比正常情况更加乐观，估计 9 月份非农就业人数增加 60 万人，高于 +50 万人的共识，他们指出“劳动力需求仍然非常强劲，<b>我们相信，9 月 5 日全国范围内增加的失业救济金到期促进了有效劳动力供应和就业增长——就像 7 月和 8 月提前结束联邦福利的州所做的那样。”</b>因此，高盛预计明天的数字将增加 20 万，10 月份的数字将增加更多。该银行还认为，学校的重新开放促进了9月份就业岗位的增长，增加了约15万个。尽管有这些有利因素，大数据就业信号好坏参半，餐饮活动仅小幅反弹。</blockquote></p><p> Labor market proxies have been constructive for the month: ADP’s gauge of payrolls surprised to the upside, although analysts continue to note that the direct relationship between the official data and the ADP’s gauge is tenuous, despite the gap being under 100k over the last three reports. The number of initial jobless claims and continuing claims has eased back between the survey periods of the August and September jobs data, although analysts note that more recent releases have shown an uptick in claims potentially clouding the outlook. The ISM business surveys have signaled employment growth in the month, with manufacturing employment rising into growth territory again, but services sector hiring cooled a little in the month, but remains expansionary; survey commentary continues to allude to a tight labour market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September employment situation report at 13:30BST/08:30EDT on October 8th.</p><p><blockquote>本月劳动力市场指标具有建设性： 尽管分析师们继续指出，官方数据与 ADP 指标之间的直接关系很脆弱，但在过去三份报告中，官方数据与 ADP 指标之间的直接关系很脆弱。在 8 月至 9 月就业数据调查期间，首次申请失业救济人数和持续申请失业救济人数有所回落，尽管分析师指出，最近公布的数据显示申请失业救济人数上升，这可能会给前景蒙上阴影。ISM商业调查显示本月就业增长，制造业就业再次进入增长区域，但服务业招聘本月略有降温，但仍保持扩张性；调查评论继续暗示劳动力市场紧张。美国劳工统计局将于10月8日英国夏令时13:30/美国东部时间08:30发布9月份就业形势报告。</blockquote></p><p> <b>POLICY</b>: The September jobs report might have reduced relevance on trading conditions given that Fed officials have effectively confirmed that, barring a collapse in the jobs data, it is on course to announce a tapering of its asset purchases at the November 3rd meeting. Accordingly, trading risks may be skewed to the downside, rather than to the upside, where a significant payrolls miss may present obstacles to the Fed announcing its taper. Additionally, it is worth being cognizant of how efforts in Washington to raise the debt ceiling are progressing; as yet, officials have not struck a deal, and are in the process of enacting stop gap legislation to allow funding into December; some analysts suggest that the Fed may be reticent to tighten policy in the face of potential default risks.</p><p><blockquote><b>政策</b>：鉴于美联储官员已有效确认，除非就业数据暴跌，否则美联储将在 11 月 3 日的会议上宣布缩减资产购买规模，因此 9 月份就业报告可能会降低其对交易条件的相关性。因此，交易风险可能会向下行倾斜，而不是向上行倾斜，因为就业数据的大幅下降可能会给美联储宣布缩减规模带来障碍。此外，值得认识到华盛顿提高债务上限的努力是如何取得进展的；到目前为止，官员们尚未达成协议，并正在制定权宜之计立法，以允许在 12 月之前提供资金；有分析师暗示，面对潜在的违约风险，美联储可能不愿收紧政策。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PAYROLLS:</b>The consensus looks for 500k nonfarm payrolls to be added to the US economy in September (prev. 235k), which would be a cooler rate of growth than the three- and six-month average rate, though in line with the 12-month average (3-month average is 750k/month, the six-month average is 653k/month, and the 12-month average is 503k/month – that technically at least suggests an improving rate of payrolls growth in recent months).<b>Aggregating the nonfarm payrolls data since March 2020, around 5.33mln Americans remain out of work relative to pre-pandemic levels.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>工资单：</b>共识预计9月份美国经济将增加50万非农就业人数（上一篇。23.5万），这将是一个比三个月和六个月平均增长率更冷的增长率，尽管与12个月的平均水平一致（3个月平均水平为75万/月，6个月平均水平为65.3万/月，12个月平均水平为50.3万/月——从技术上讲，这至少表明最近几个月的就业增长率有所提高）。<b>汇总2020年3月以来的非农就业数据，相对于大流行前的水平，约有533万美国人仍然失业。</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>MEASURES OF SLACK:</b>The Unemployment Rate is expected at 5.1% (prev. 5.2%); Labour Force Participation previously at 61.7% vs 63.2% pre-pandemic; U6 measure of underemployment was previously at 8.8% vs 7.0% prepandemic; Employment-population ratio was previously 58.5% vs 61.1% pre-pandemic. These measures of slack are likely to provide more insight into how Fed officials are judging labour market progress, with many in recent months noting that they are closely watching the Underemployment Rate, Participation Rate, and the Employment-Population Ratio for a better handle on the level of slack that remains in the economy. Analysts would be encouraged the closer these get to pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>松弛的度量：</b>失业率预计为5.1%（之前为5.2%）；劳动力参与率此前为61.7%，而大流行前为63.2%；U6 就业不足指标此前为 8.8%，而大流行前为 7.0%；就业人口比率此前为58.5%，而疫情前为61.1%。这些松弛的衡量标准可能会让人们更深入地了解美联储官员如何判断劳动力市场的进展，近几个月来，许多官员指出，他们正在密切关注就业不足率、参与率和就业与人口比率，以更好地处理经济中仍然存在的松弛程度。分析师们会受到鼓舞，因为这些数字越接近大流行前的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>EARNINGS:</b>Average Hourly Earnings expected at +0.4% M/M (prev. +0.6%); Average Hourly Earnings expected at +4. 6% Y/Y (prev. +4.3%); Average Workweek Hours expected at 34.7hrs (prev. 34.7hrs). Aggregating the nonfarm payrolls data since March 2020, around 5.33mln Americans still remain out of work relative to pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>收益：</b>平均每小时收益预计为 +0.4%（之前为 +0.6%）；平均小时收益预计同比+4.6%（前值+4.3%）；平均每周工作时间预计为34.7小时（以前。34.7小时）.汇总2020年3月以来的非农就业数据，相对于大流行前的水平，约有533万美国人仍然失业。</blockquote></p><p> <b>ADP:</b>The ADP National Employment Report showed 568k jobs added to the US economy in September, topping expectations for 428k, and a better pace than the prior 340k (revised down from 374k initially reported). ADP itself said that the labor market recovery continued to make progress despite the marked slowdown in the rate of job additions from the 748k pace seen in Q2. It also noted that Leisure &amp; Hospitality remained one of the biggest beneficiaries to the recovery, though said that hiring was still heavily impacted by the trajectory of the pandemic, especially for small firms. ADP thinks that the current bottlenecks in hiring will likely fade as the pandemic situation continues to improve, and that could set the stage for solid job gains in the months ahead. On the data methodology, analysts continue to note that ADP's model incorporates much of the prior official payrolls data, other macroeconomic variables, as well as data from its own payrolls platform; \"Payrolls were soft in August, thanks to the hit to the services sector from the Delta variant, and that weakness likely constrained ADP data,\" Pantheon Macroeconomics said. \"The overshoot to consensus, therefore, suggests that the other inputs to ADP’s model were stronger than we expected, but none of the details are published, so we don’t know if the overshoot was model-driven or due to stronger employment data at ADP’s clients.\"</p><p><blockquote><b>ADP：</b>ADP全国就业报告显示，9月份美国经济新增就业岗位56.8万个，高于预期的42.8万个，增速好于之前的34万个（从最初报告的37.4万个下调）。ADP本身表示，尽管第二季度的74.8万个工作岗位增加速度明显放缓，但劳动力市场复苏继续取得进展。它还指出，休闲和酒店业仍然是复苏的最大受益者之一，尽管表示招聘仍然受到疫情轨迹的严重影响，特别是对小公司而言。ADP认为，随着疫情形势的持续改善，当前的招聘瓶颈可能会消失，这可能会为未来几个月的稳健就业增长创造条件。在数据方法方面，分析师继续指出，ADP的模型纳入了许多以前的官方就业数据、其他宏观经济变量以及来自其自己的就业平台的数据；万神殿宏观经济学表示：“由于德尔塔变异毒株对服务业的打击，8 月份就业人数疲软，这种疲软可能会限制 ADP 数据。”“因此，与共识的超调表明，ADP模型的其他输入比我们预期的要强，但没有公布任何细节，因此我们不知道超调是模型驱动的，还是由于ADP客户的就业数据更强劲”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS:</b>Initial jobless claims data for the week that coincides with the BLS jobs report survey window saw claims at around 351k – little changed from the 349k for the August jobs data survey window – where analysts said seasonal factors played a role in boosting the weekly data, while there may have been some lingering Hurricane Ida effects; the corresponding continuing claims data has fallen to 2.802mln in the September survey period vs 2.908mln in the August survey period. In aggregate, the data continues to point to declining trend, although in recent weeks the level of jobless claims has been picking up again.</p><p><blockquote><b>首次申请失业救济人数：</b>与 BLS 就业报告调查窗口相吻合的一周首次申请失业救济人数约为 35.1 万人，与 8 月份就业数据调查窗口的 34.9 万人几乎没有变化，分析师表示，季节性因素在提振每周数据方面发挥了作用，而可能存在一些挥之不去的飓风艾达的影响；相应的持续索赔数据在9月份调查期间降至280.2万份，而8月份调查期间为290.8万份。总体而言，数据继续指向下降趋势，尽管最近几周申请失业救济人数的水平再次回升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BUSINESS SURVEYS</b>: The Services and Manufacturing ISM reports showed divergent trends in September, with the service sector employment sub-index easing a little to 53.0 from 53.7, signalling growth but at a slower rate, while the manufacturing employment sub-index rose back into expansionary territory, printing 50.2 from 49.0 prior. On the manufacturing sector, ISM said companies were still struggling to meet labour-management plans, but noted some modest signs of progress compared to previous months: \"Less than 5% of comments noted improvements regarding employment, compared to none in August,\" it said, \"an overwhelming majority of panelists indicate their companies are hiring or attempting to hire,\" where around 85% of responses were about seeking additional staffing, while nearly half of the respondents expressed difficulty in filling positions, an increase from August. \"The increasing frequency of comments on turnover rates and retirements continued a trend that began in August,\" ISM said. Meanwhile, in the services sector, employment activity rose for a third straight month; respondents noted that employees were flocking to better-paying jobs and there was a lack of pipeline to replace these staff, while other respondents talked of labor shortages being experienced at all levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>商业调查</b>: 9 月份服务业和制造业 ISM 报告显示了不同的趋势，服务业就业分项指数从 53.7 小幅放缓至 53.0，表明增长，但速度较慢，而制造业就业分项指数回升至扩张区域，从之前的 49.0 升至 50.2。在制造业方面，ISM 表示，企业仍在努力实现劳动力管理计划，但指出与前几个月相比有一些适度的进展迹象：“不到 5% 的评论指出就业有所改善，而 8 月份则没有，”它表示，“绝大多数小组成员表示他们的公司正在招聘或试图招聘，”其中约 85% 的回答是关于寻求额外的员工，而近一半的受访者表示难以填补职位，这一比例较 8 月份有所增加。ISM 表示：“有关离职率和退休的评论越来越频繁，延续了 8 月份开始的趋势。”与此同时，服务业就业活动连续第三个月上升；受访者指出，员工纷纷涌向薪酬更高的工作，缺乏替代这些员工的渠道，而其他受访者则谈到各级都出现了劳动力短缺。</blockquote></p><p> <b>ARGUING FOR A BETTER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT</b>:</p><p><blockquote><b>争取一份好于预期的报告</b>:</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>End of federal enhanced unemployment beneﬁts</b>. The expiration of federal beneﬁts in some states boosted labor supply and job-ﬁnding rates over the summer, and all remaining such programs expired on September 5. The July and August indicated a cumulative 6pp boost to job-ﬁnding probabilities from June to August for workers losing $300 top-up payments and a 12pp boost for workers losing all beneﬁts.<b>Some of the 6mn workers who lost some or all beneﬁts on September 5 got a job by September 18—in time to be counted in tomorrow’s data.</b>Goldman assumes a +200k boost to job growth from this channel, with a larger increase in subsequent reports (+1.3mn cumulatively by year end).</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa8e5900cf66c76d4b64055f84e58048\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>联邦增强失业救济金的终止</b>.一些州的联邦福利到期提高了夏季的劳动力供应和就业率，所有剩余的此类计划都于9月5日到期。7 月和 8 月显示，从 6 月到 8 月，失去 300 美元充值付款的工人的求职概率累计增加了 6 个百分点，失去所有福利的工人的求职概率累计增加了 12 个百分点。<b>9 月 5 日失去部分或全部福利的 600 万工人中，有一些人在 9 月 18 日找到了工作--及时计入明天的数据。</b>高盛假设这一渠道将推动就业增长+20万人，随后的报告将有更大的增长（截至年底累计+130万人）。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>School reopening</b>. The largest 100 school districts are all open for in-person learning, catalyzing the return of many previously furloughed teachers and support staff. While full normalization of employment levels would contribute 600k jobs (mom sa, see left panel of the chart below), some janitors and support staff did not return due to hybrid teaching models, and job openings in the sector are only 200k above the pre-crisis level (see right panel). Relatedly, the BLS’s seasonal factors already embed the usual rehiring of education workers on summer layoff, so if fewer janitors returned to work than in a typical September, this would reduce seasonally adjusted job growth, other things equal. Taken together, assume a roughly 150k boost from the reopening of schools in tomorrow’s report.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff3e69723b40e0d372ec2bebecb38b1f\" tg-width=\"799\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>学校复课</b>最大的100个学区都开放面对面学习，促使许多以前休假的教师和辅助人员重返校园。虽然就业水平的完全正常化将提供60万个工作岗位（mom sa，见下图左图），但由于混合教学模式，一些看门人和辅助人员没有返回，该部门的职位空缺仅比危机前的水平高出20万个（见右图）。与此相关的是，在其他条件相同的情况下，劳工统计局的季节性因素已经包含了教育工作者通常在夏季裁员时重新招聘的情况，因此，如果重返工作岗位的清洁工少于典型的 9 月份，这将降低经季节性调整后的就业增长。综合来看，在明天的报告中，学校重新开放将带来大约 15 万人的增长。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Job availability</b>. The Conference Board labor differential—the difference between the percent of respondents saying jobs are plentiful and those saying jobs are hardto get - edged down to 42.5 from 44.4, still an elevated level. Additionally, JOLTS job openings increased by 749k in July to a new record high of 10.9mn.</li>  <li><b>ADP.</b>Private sector employment in the ADP report increased by 568k in September, above consensus expectations for a 430k gain, implying strong growth in the underlying ADP sample. Additionally, schools generally do not use ADP payroll software, arguing for a larger gain from school reopening in the official payroll measure.</li> </ul> <b>ARGUING FOR A WEAKER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT:</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>工作可用性</b>世界大型企业联合会劳动力差异——认为工作机会充足的受访者和认为工作机会很难找到的受访者之间的差异——从44.4%降至42.5%，仍然是一个较高的水平。此外，JOLTS 7月份职位空缺增加了74.9万个，达到1090万个的新高。</li><li><b>ADP。</b>ADP报告中的私营部门就业人数在9月份增加了56.8万人，高于市场普遍预期的43万人，这意味着基础ADP样本的强劲增长。此外，学校通常不使用ADP工资软件，认为在官方工资衡量标准中，学校重新开放会带来更大的收益。</li></ul><b>主张报告弱于预期：</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Delta variant.</b>Rebounding covid infection rates weighed on services consumption and the labor market in August. And while US case counts began to decline in early September, restaurant seatings on Open Table rebounded only marginally. leisure and hospitality employment rose in September, but probably not at the ~400k monthly pace of June and July.</li>  <li><b>Employer surveys</b>. The employment components of our business surveys were flat to down, whereas we and consensus forecast a pickup in job growth. Goldman's services survey employment tracker remained unchanged at 54.5 and the manufacturing survey employment tracker declined 0.4pt to 57.8. And while the Goldman Sachs Analyst Index (GSAI) decreased 0.8% to 68.5, the employment component rose1.9% to 71.9.</li> </ul> <b>NEUTRAL FACTORS:</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>德尔塔变异毒株.</b>8 月份新冠感染率反弹给服务消费和劳动力市场带来压力。虽然美国病例数在9月初开始下降，但开放餐桌的餐厅座位仅略有反弹。9 月份休闲和酒店业就业人数有所增长，但可能不会达到 6 月和 7 月每月约 40 万人的增长速度。</li><li><b>雇主调查</b>我们的商业调查中的就业组成部分持平或下降，而我们和共识预测就业增长将回升。高盛服务业调查就业跟踪指数保持在 54.5 不变，制造业调查就业跟踪指数下降 0.4 个百分点至 57.8。高盛分析师指数 (GSAI) 下降 0.8% 至 68.5，而就业成分上升 1.9% 至 71.9。</li></ul><b>中性因素：</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Big Data.</b>High-frequency data on the labor market were mixed between the August and September survey weeks, on net providing little guidance about the underlying pace of job growth. Three of the five measures tracked indicate an at-or-above-consensus gain (Census Small Business Pulse +0.5mn, ADP +0.6mn,Google mobility +2mn), but the Homebase data was an outlier to the downside. At face value, it would indicate a large outright decline in payrolls. The Census Household Pulse (-0.6mn) was also quite weak, though encouragingly, it also indicated a large drop in childcare-related labor supply headwinds as schools reopened.</li>  <li><b>Seasonality.</b>The September seasonal hurdle is relatively low: the BLS adjustment factors generally assume a 600-700k decline in private payrolls (which exclude public schools), compared to around -100k on average in July and August. Continued labor shortages encouraged firms to lay off fewer workers at the end of summer. Partially offsetting this tailwind, the September seasonal factors may have evolved unfavorably due to the crisis—specifically by fitting to last September’s reopening-driven job surge (private payrolls +932k mom sa).</li>  <li><b>Jobless claims.</b>Initial jobless claims fell during the September payroll month, averaging 339k per week vs. 378k in August despite a boost from individuals transitioning or attempting to transition to state programs. Across all employee programs including emergency benefits, continuing claims fell dramatically (-3.3mn)–but again for non-economic reasons (federal enhanced programs expired). Continuing claims in regular state programs decreased 106k from survey week to survey week.</li>  <li><b>Job cuts.</b>Announced layoffs reported by Challenger, Gray &amp; Christmas rebounded 11% month-over-month in September after decreasing by 14% over the prior two months (SA by GS). Nonetheless, layoffs remain near the three-decade low on this measure (in 1993).</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>大数据。</b>8 月至 9 月调查周期间，劳动力市场的高频数据好坏参半，对就业增长的基本速度几乎没有提供指导。跟踪的五项指标中有三项显示增幅达到或高于共识（人口普查小企业脉冲+50万，ADP+60万，谷歌移动+200万），但Homebase数据是下行的异常值。从表面上看，这将表明就业人数大幅下降。人口普查家庭脉搏（-60万）也相当疲软，尽管令人鼓舞，但它也表明随着学校重新开放，与儿童保育相关的劳动力供应逆风大幅下降。</li><li><b>季节性。</b>9月份的季节性障碍相对较低：BLS调整因素通常假设私人就业人数（不包括公立学校）下降60-70万人，而7月和8月的平均就业人数约为-10万人。持续的劳动力短缺鼓励企业在夏季结束时减少裁员。9 月份的季节性因素可能因危机而发生了不利的演变，这在一定程度上抵消了这一推动力--特别是与去年 9 月份重新开放推动的就业激增相吻合（私人就业人数 +93.2 万 mom sa）。</li><li><b>申请失业救济金。</b>尽管个人过渡到或试图过渡到国家计划，但9月份的首次申请失业救济人数有所上升，平均每周为33.9万人，而8月份为37.8万人。在包括紧急福利在内的所有员工计划中，持续索赔大幅下降（-330万）——但同样是因为非经济原因（联邦增强型计划到期）。从调查周到调查周，常规州项目的持续申请减少了10.6万人。</li><li><b>裁员。</b>Challenger、Gray &amp; Christmas 报告的宣布裁员人数在前两个月下降 14% 后，9 月份环比反弹 11%（SA by GS）。尽管如此，这一指标的裁员仍接近三十年来的最低点（1993 年）。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/september-payrolls-preview-it-will-be-beat-question-how-big\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/september-payrolls-preview-it-will-be-beat-question-how-big","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135993400","content_text":"After a strong initial claims report and a solid ADP private payrolls print, all eyes turn to the most important economic data point of the week, and the month, Friday's nonfarm payrolls report due at 830am ET on Friday, where consensus expects a 500K print- more than double last month's disappointing 235K print - as well as a drop in the unemployment rate to 5.1% and an increase in average hourly earnings to 4.6%. And unlike last month, when wecorrectly predicted the big miss in August payrolls, this time we agree that tomorrow's report will be a beat, the only question is how big.\nHere is a snapshot of what to expect tomorrow:\n\nTotal Payrolls: 500K, Last 235K\nPrivate Payrolls: 450K, Last 243K\nUnemployment Rate: 5.1%, Last 5.2%\nLabor force participation rate: 61.8%, Last 61.7%\nAverage Hourly Earnings Y/Y: 4.6%, Last 4.3%\nAverage Weekly Hours: 34.7, Last 34.7\n\nAs Newsquawk writes in its NFP preview, September’s jobs data, the last before the Fed’s November 3rd policy meeting, will be framed in the context of the central bank’s expected taper announcement, where a merely satisfactory report would likely to be enough for the FOMC to greenlight a November announcement to scale-back its USD 120BN/month asset purchases.\nGoldman economists are more bullish than normal, and estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 600k in September, above consensus of +500k, and they note that \"labor demand remains very strong, and we believe the nationwide expiration of enhanced unemployment beneﬁts on September 5 boosted effective labor supply and job growth—as it did in July and August in states that ended federal beneﬁts early.\"As a result, Goldman is assuming a 200k boost in tomorrow’s numbers and a larger boost in October. The bank also believes the reopening of schools contributed to September job growth, by around 150k. Despite these tailwinds, Big Data employment signals were mixed, and dining activity rebounded only marginally.\nLabor market proxies have been constructive for the month: ADP’s gauge of payrolls surprised to the upside, although analysts continue to note that the direct relationship between the official data and the ADP’s gauge is tenuous, despite the gap being under 100k over the last three reports. The number of initial jobless claims and continuing claims has eased back between the survey periods of the August and September jobs data, although analysts note that more recent releases have shown an uptick in claims potentially clouding the outlook. The ISM business surveys have signaled employment growth in the month, with manufacturing employment rising into growth territory again, but services sector hiring cooled a little in the month, but remains expansionary; survey commentary continues to allude to a tight labour market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September employment situation report at 13:30BST/08:30EDT on October 8th.\nPOLICY: The September jobs report might have reduced relevance on trading conditions given that Fed officials have effectively confirmed that, barring a collapse in the jobs data, it is on course to announce a tapering of its asset purchases at the November 3rd meeting. Accordingly, trading risks may be skewed to the downside, rather than to the upside, where a significant payrolls miss may present obstacles to the Fed announcing its taper. Additionally, it is worth being cognizant of how efforts in Washington to raise the debt ceiling are progressing; as yet, officials have not struck a deal, and are in the process of enacting stop gap legislation to allow funding into December; some analysts suggest that the Fed may be reticent to tighten policy in the face of potential default risks.\nPAYROLLS:The consensus looks for 500k nonfarm payrolls to be added to the US economy in September (prev. 235k), which would be a cooler rate of growth than the three- and six-month average rate, though in line with the 12-month average (3-month average is 750k/month, the six-month average is 653k/month, and the 12-month average is 503k/month – that technically at least suggests an improving rate of payrolls growth in recent months).Aggregating the nonfarm payrolls data since March 2020, around 5.33mln Americans remain out of work relative to pre-pandemic levels.\nMEASURES OF SLACK:The Unemployment Rate is expected at 5.1% (prev. 5.2%); Labour Force Participation previously at 61.7% vs 63.2% pre-pandemic; U6 measure of underemployment was previously at 8.8% vs 7.0% prepandemic; Employment-population ratio was previously 58.5% vs 61.1% pre-pandemic. These measures of slack are likely to provide more insight into how Fed officials are judging labour market progress, with many in recent months noting that they are closely watching the Underemployment Rate, Participation Rate, and the Employment-Population Ratio for a better handle on the level of slack that remains in the economy. Analysts would be encouraged the closer these get to pre-pandemic levels.\nEARNINGS:Average Hourly Earnings expected at +0.4% M/M (prev. +0.6%); Average Hourly Earnings expected at +4. 6% Y/Y (prev. +4.3%); Average Workweek Hours expected at 34.7hrs (prev. 34.7hrs). Aggregating the nonfarm payrolls data since March 2020, around 5.33mln Americans still remain out of work relative to pre-pandemic levels.\nADP:The ADP National Employment Report showed 568k jobs added to the US economy in September, topping expectations for 428k, and a better pace than the prior 340k (revised down from 374k initially reported). ADP itself said that the labor market recovery continued to make progress despite the marked slowdown in the rate of job additions from the 748k pace seen in Q2. It also noted that Leisure & Hospitality remained one of the biggest beneficiaries to the recovery, though said that hiring was still heavily impacted by the trajectory of the pandemic, especially for small firms. ADP thinks that the current bottlenecks in hiring will likely fade as the pandemic situation continues to improve, and that could set the stage for solid job gains in the months ahead. On the data methodology, analysts continue to note that ADP's model incorporates much of the prior official payrolls data, other macroeconomic variables, as well as data from its own payrolls platform; \"Payrolls were soft in August, thanks to the hit to the services sector from the Delta variant, and that weakness likely constrained ADP data,\" Pantheon Macroeconomics said. \"The overshoot to consensus, therefore, suggests that the other inputs to ADP’s model were stronger than we expected, but none of the details are published, so we don’t know if the overshoot was model-driven or due to stronger employment data at ADP’s clients.\"\nINITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS:Initial jobless claims data for the week that coincides with the BLS jobs report survey window saw claims at around 351k – little changed from the 349k for the August jobs data survey window – where analysts said seasonal factors played a role in boosting the weekly data, while there may have been some lingering Hurricane Ida effects; the corresponding continuing claims data has fallen to 2.802mln in the September survey period vs 2.908mln in the August survey period. In aggregate, the data continues to point to declining trend, although in recent weeks the level of jobless claims has been picking up again.\nBUSINESS SURVEYS: The Services and Manufacturing ISM reports showed divergent trends in September, with the service sector employment sub-index easing a little to 53.0 from 53.7, signalling growth but at a slower rate, while the manufacturing employment sub-index rose back into expansionary territory, printing 50.2 from 49.0 prior. On the manufacturing sector, ISM said companies were still struggling to meet labour-management plans, but noted some modest signs of progress compared to previous months: \"Less than 5% of comments noted improvements regarding employment, compared to none in August,\" it said, \"an overwhelming majority of panelists indicate their companies are hiring or attempting to hire,\" where around 85% of responses were about seeking additional staffing, while nearly half of the respondents expressed difficulty in filling positions, an increase from August. \"The increasing frequency of comments on turnover rates and retirements continued a trend that began in August,\" ISM said. Meanwhile, in the services sector, employment activity rose for a third straight month; respondents noted that employees were flocking to better-paying jobs and there was a lack of pipeline to replace these staff, while other respondents talked of labor shortages being experienced at all levels.\nARGUING FOR A BETTER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT:\n\nEnd of federal enhanced unemployment beneﬁts. The expiration of federal beneﬁts in some states boosted labor supply and job-ﬁnding rates over the summer, and all remaining such programs expired on September 5. The July and August indicated a cumulative 6pp boost to job-ﬁnding probabilities from June to August for workers losing $300 top-up payments and a 12pp boost for workers losing all beneﬁts.Some of the 6mn workers who lost some or all beneﬁts on September 5 got a job by September 18—in time to be counted in tomorrow’s data.Goldman assumes a +200k boost to job growth from this channel, with a larger increase in subsequent reports (+1.3mn cumulatively by year end).\n\n\n\nSchool reopening. The largest 100 school districts are all open for in-person learning, catalyzing the return of many previously furloughed teachers and support staff. While full normalization of employment levels would contribute 600k jobs (mom sa, see left panel of the chart below), some janitors and support staff did not return due to hybrid teaching models, and job openings in the sector are only 200k above the pre-crisis level (see right panel). Relatedly, the BLS’s seasonal factors already embed the usual rehiring of education workers on summer layoff, so if fewer janitors returned to work than in a typical September, this would reduce seasonally adjusted job growth, other things equal. Taken together, assume a roughly 150k boost from the reopening of schools in tomorrow’s report.\n\n\n\nJob availability. The Conference Board labor differential—the difference between the percent of respondents saying jobs are plentiful and those saying jobs are hardto get - edged down to 42.5 from 44.4, still an elevated level. Additionally, JOLTS job openings increased by 749k in July to a new record high of 10.9mn.\nADP.Private sector employment in the ADP report increased by 568k in September, above consensus expectations for a 430k gain, implying strong growth in the underlying ADP sample. Additionally, schools generally do not use ADP payroll software, arguing for a larger gain from school reopening in the official payroll measure.\n\nARGUING FOR A WEAKER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT:\n\nDelta variant.Rebounding covid infection rates weighed on services consumption and the labor market in August. And while US case counts began to decline in early September, restaurant seatings on Open Table rebounded only marginally. leisure and hospitality employment rose in September, but probably not at the ~400k monthly pace of June and July.\nEmployer surveys. The employment components of our business surveys were flat to down, whereas we and consensus forecast a pickup in job growth. Goldman's services survey employment tracker remained unchanged at 54.5 and the manufacturing survey employment tracker declined 0.4pt to 57.8. And while the Goldman Sachs Analyst Index (GSAI) decreased 0.8% to 68.5, the employment component rose1.9% to 71.9.\n\nNEUTRAL FACTORS:\n\nBig Data.High-frequency data on the labor market were mixed between the August and September survey weeks, on net providing little guidance about the underlying pace of job growth. Three of the five measures tracked indicate an at-or-above-consensus gain (Census Small Business Pulse +0.5mn, ADP +0.6mn,Google mobility +2mn), but the Homebase data was an outlier to the downside. At face value, it would indicate a large outright decline in payrolls. The Census Household Pulse (-0.6mn) was also quite weak, though encouragingly, it also indicated a large drop in childcare-related labor supply headwinds as schools reopened.\nSeasonality.The September seasonal hurdle is relatively low: the BLS adjustment factors generally assume a 600-700k decline in private payrolls (which exclude public schools), compared to around -100k on average in July and August. Continued labor shortages encouraged firms to lay off fewer workers at the end of summer. Partially offsetting this tailwind, the September seasonal factors may have evolved unfavorably due to the crisis—specifically by fitting to last September’s reopening-driven job surge (private payrolls +932k mom sa).\nJobless claims.Initial jobless claims fell during the September payroll month, averaging 339k per week vs. 378k in August despite a boost from individuals transitioning or attempting to transition to state programs. Across all employee programs including emergency benefits, continuing claims fell dramatically (-3.3mn)–but again for non-economic reasons (federal enhanced programs expired). Continuing claims in regular state programs decreased 106k from survey week to survey week.\nJob cuts.Announced layoffs reported by Challenger, Gray & Christmas rebounded 11% month-over-month in September after decreasing by 14% over the prior two months (SA by GS). Nonetheless, layoffs remain near the three-decade low on this measure (in 1993).","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2538,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":821928646,"gmtCreate":1633689156821,"gmtModify":1633690064477,"author":{"id":"3582059706803344","authorId":"3582059706803344","name":"YJ12","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/053b18ef264ba18845e0b6ec9727bcb6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582059706803344","idStr":"3582059706803344"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"hello","listText":"hello","text":"hello","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821928646","repostId":"1135993400","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135993400","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633675137,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1135993400?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-08 14:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"September Payrolls Preview: It Will Be A Beat, The Question Is How Big<blockquote>9 月份就业预览：这将是一个节拍，问题是有多大</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135993400","media":"zerohedge","summary":"After a strong initial claims report and a solid ADP private payrolls print, all eyes turn to the mo","content":"<p>After a strong initial claims report and a solid ADP private payrolls print, all eyes turn to the most important economic data point of the week, and the month, Friday's nonfarm payrolls report due at 830am ET on Friday, where consensus expects a 500K print- more than double last month's disappointing 235K print - as well as a drop in the unemployment rate to 5.1% and an increase in average hourly earnings to 4.6%. And unlike last month, when wecorrectly predicted the big miss in August payrolls, this time we agree that tomorrow's report will be a beat, the only question is how big.</p><p><blockquote>在强劲的初始申请失业救济金报告和稳健的 ADP 私人就业数据之后，所有人的目光都转向了本周和本月最重要的经济数据点，即美国东部时间周五上午 8:30 发布的周五非农就业报告，普遍预计将有 50 万人就业，是上个月令人失望的 23.5 万人就业的两倍多，失业率将降至 5.1%，平均时薪将增至 4.6%。与上个月不同，当时我们正确预测了 8 月份就业人数的重大失误，这次我们同意明天的报告将是一个打击，唯一的问题是有多大。</blockquote></p><p> Here is a snapshot of what to expect tomorrow:</p><p><blockquote>以下是明天的快照：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Total Payrolls: 500K, Last 235K</li>  <li>Private Payrolls: 450K, Last 243K</li>  <li>Unemployment Rate: 5.1%, Last 5.2%</li>  <li>Labor force participation rate: 61.8%, Last 61.7%</li>  <li>Average Hourly Earnings Y/Y: 4.6%, Last 4.3%</li>  <li>Average Weekly Hours: 34.7, Last 34.7</li> </ul> As&nbsp;Newsquawk&nbsp;writes in its NFP preview, September’s jobs data, the last before the Fed’s November 3rd policy meeting, will be framed in the context of the central bank’s expected taper announcement, where a merely satisfactory report would likely to be enough for the FOMC to greenlight a November announcement to scale-back its USD 120BN/month asset purchases.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>总就业人数：50万，最后23.5万</li><li>私人就业人数：45万，最后24.3万</li><li>失业率：5.1%，去年5.2%</li><li>劳动力参与率：61.8%，去年61.7%</li><li>平均每小时收益同比：4.6%，去年 4.3%</li><li>平均每周小时数：34.7，最近34.7</li></ul>正如 Newsquawk 在其 NFP 预览中所写的那样，9 月份的就业数据是美联储 11 月 3 日政策会议前的最后一份数据，它将以美联储预期宣布缩减规模为背景，而一份令人满意的报告可能就足以让联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 在 11 月份宣布缩减每月 1200 亿美元的资产购买规模。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman economists are more bullish than normal, and estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 600k in September, above consensus of +500k, and they note that \"labor demand remains very strong,&nbsp;<b>and we believe the nationwide expiration of enhanced unemployment beneﬁts on September 5 boosted effective labor supply and job growth—as it did in July and August in states that ended federal beneﬁts early.\"</b>As a result, Goldman is assuming a 200k boost in tomorrow’s numbers and a larger boost in October. The bank also believes the reopening of schools contributed to September job growth, by around 150k. Despite these tailwinds, Big Data employment signals were mixed, and dining activity rebounded only marginally.</p><p><blockquote>高盛经济学家比正常情况更加乐观，估计 9 月份非农就业人数增加 60 万人，高于 +50 万人的共识，他们指出“劳动力需求仍然非常强劲，<b>我们相信，9 月 5 日全国范围内增加的失业救济金到期促进了有效劳动力供应和就业增长——就像 7 月和 8 月提前结束联邦福利的州所做的那样。”</b>因此，高盛预计明天的数字将增加 20 万，10 月份的数字将增加更多。该银行还认为，学校的重新开放促进了9月份就业岗位的增长，增加了约15万个。尽管有这些有利因素，大数据就业信号好坏参半，餐饮活动仅小幅反弹。</blockquote></p><p> Labor market proxies have been constructive for the month: ADP’s gauge of payrolls surprised to the upside, although analysts continue to note that the direct relationship between the official data and the ADP’s gauge is tenuous, despite the gap being under 100k over the last three reports. The number of initial jobless claims and continuing claims has eased back between the survey periods of the August and September jobs data, although analysts note that more recent releases have shown an uptick in claims potentially clouding the outlook. The ISM business surveys have signaled employment growth in the month, with manufacturing employment rising into growth territory again, but services sector hiring cooled a little in the month, but remains expansionary; survey commentary continues to allude to a tight labour market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September employment situation report at 13:30BST/08:30EDT on October 8th.</p><p><blockquote>本月劳动力市场指标具有建设性： 尽管分析师们继续指出，官方数据与 ADP 指标之间的直接关系很脆弱，但在过去三份报告中，官方数据与 ADP 指标之间的直接关系很脆弱。在 8 月至 9 月就业数据调查期间，首次申请失业救济人数和持续申请失业救济人数有所回落，尽管分析师指出，最近公布的数据显示申请失业救济人数上升，这可能会给前景蒙上阴影。ISM商业调查显示本月就业增长，制造业就业再次进入增长区域，但服务业招聘本月略有降温，但仍保持扩张性；调查评论继续暗示劳动力市场紧张。美国劳工统计局将于10月8日英国夏令时13:30/美国东部时间08:30发布9月份就业形势报告。</blockquote></p><p> <b>POLICY</b>: The September jobs report might have reduced relevance on trading conditions given that Fed officials have effectively confirmed that, barring a collapse in the jobs data, it is on course to announce a tapering of its asset purchases at the November 3rd meeting. Accordingly, trading risks may be skewed to the downside, rather than to the upside, where a significant payrolls miss may present obstacles to the Fed announcing its taper. Additionally, it is worth being cognizant of how efforts in Washington to raise the debt ceiling are progressing; as yet, officials have not struck a deal, and are in the process of enacting stop gap legislation to allow funding into December; some analysts suggest that the Fed may be reticent to tighten policy in the face of potential default risks.</p><p><blockquote><b>政策</b>：鉴于美联储官员已有效确认，除非就业数据暴跌，否则美联储将在 11 月 3 日的会议上宣布缩减资产购买规模，因此 9 月份就业报告可能会降低其对交易条件的相关性。因此，交易风险可能会向下行倾斜，而不是向上行倾斜，因为就业数据的大幅下降可能会给美联储宣布缩减规模带来障碍。此外，值得认识到华盛顿提高债务上限的努力是如何取得进展的；到目前为止，官员们尚未达成协议，并正在制定权宜之计立法，以允许在 12 月之前提供资金；有分析师暗示，面对潜在的违约风险，美联储可能不愿收紧政策。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PAYROLLS:</b>The consensus looks for 500k nonfarm payrolls to be added to the US economy in September (prev. 235k), which would be a cooler rate of growth than the three- and six-month average rate, though in line with the 12-month average (3-month average is 750k/month, the six-month average is 653k/month, and the 12-month average is 503k/month – that technically at least suggests an improving rate of payrolls growth in recent months).<b>Aggregating the nonfarm payrolls data since March 2020, around 5.33mln Americans remain out of work relative to pre-pandemic levels.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>工资单：</b>共识预计9月份美国经济将增加50万非农就业人数（上一篇。23.5万），这将是一个比三个月和六个月平均增长率更冷的增长率，尽管与12个月的平均水平一致（3个月平均水平为75万/月，6个月平均水平为65.3万/月，12个月平均水平为50.3万/月——从技术上讲，这至少表明最近几个月的就业增长率有所提高）。<b>汇总2020年3月以来的非农就业数据，相对于大流行前的水平，约有533万美国人仍然失业。</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>MEASURES OF SLACK:</b>The Unemployment Rate is expected at 5.1% (prev. 5.2%); Labour Force Participation previously at 61.7% vs 63.2% pre-pandemic; U6 measure of underemployment was previously at 8.8% vs 7.0% prepandemic; Employment-population ratio was previously 58.5% vs 61.1% pre-pandemic. These measures of slack are likely to provide more insight into how Fed officials are judging labour market progress, with many in recent months noting that they are closely watching the Underemployment Rate, Participation Rate, and the Employment-Population Ratio for a better handle on the level of slack that remains in the economy. Analysts would be encouraged the closer these get to pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>松弛的度量：</b>失业率预计为5.1%（之前为5.2%）；劳动力参与率此前为61.7%，而大流行前为63.2%；U6 就业不足指标此前为 8.8%，而大流行前为 7.0%；就业人口比率此前为58.5%，而疫情前为61.1%。这些松弛的衡量标准可能会让人们更深入地了解美联储官员如何判断劳动力市场的进展，近几个月来，许多官员指出，他们正在密切关注就业不足率、参与率和就业与人口比率，以更好地处理经济中仍然存在的松弛程度。分析师们会受到鼓舞，因为这些数字越接近大流行前的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>EARNINGS:</b>Average Hourly Earnings expected at +0.4% M/M (prev. +0.6%); Average Hourly Earnings expected at +4. 6% Y/Y (prev. +4.3%); Average Workweek Hours expected at 34.7hrs (prev. 34.7hrs). Aggregating the nonfarm payrolls data since March 2020, around 5.33mln Americans still remain out of work relative to pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>收益：</b>平均每小时收益预计为 +0.4%（之前为 +0.6%）；平均小时收益预计同比+4.6%（前值+4.3%）；平均每周工作时间预计为34.7小时（以前。34.7小时）.汇总2020年3月以来的非农就业数据，相对于大流行前的水平，约有533万美国人仍然失业。</blockquote></p><p> <b>ADP:</b>The ADP National Employment Report showed 568k jobs added to the US economy in September, topping expectations for 428k, and a better pace than the prior 340k (revised down from 374k initially reported). ADP itself said that the labor market recovery continued to make progress despite the marked slowdown in the rate of job additions from the 748k pace seen in Q2. It also noted that Leisure &amp; Hospitality remained one of the biggest beneficiaries to the recovery, though said that hiring was still heavily impacted by the trajectory of the pandemic, especially for small firms. ADP thinks that the current bottlenecks in hiring will likely fade as the pandemic situation continues to improve, and that could set the stage for solid job gains in the months ahead. On the data methodology, analysts continue to note that ADP's model incorporates much of the prior official payrolls data, other macroeconomic variables, as well as data from its own payrolls platform; \"Payrolls were soft in August, thanks to the hit to the services sector from the Delta variant, and that weakness likely constrained ADP data,\" Pantheon Macroeconomics said. \"The overshoot to consensus, therefore, suggests that the other inputs to ADP’s model were stronger than we expected, but none of the details are published, so we don’t know if the overshoot was model-driven or due to stronger employment data at ADP’s clients.\"</p><p><blockquote><b>ADP：</b>ADP全国就业报告显示，9月份美国经济新增就业岗位56.8万个，高于预期的42.8万个，增速好于之前的34万个（从最初报告的37.4万个下调）。ADP本身表示，尽管第二季度的74.8万个工作岗位增加速度明显放缓，但劳动力市场复苏继续取得进展。它还指出，休闲和酒店业仍然是复苏的最大受益者之一，尽管表示招聘仍然受到疫情轨迹的严重影响，特别是对小公司而言。ADP认为，随着疫情形势的持续改善，当前的招聘瓶颈可能会消失，这可能会为未来几个月的稳健就业增长创造条件。在数据方法方面，分析师继续指出，ADP的模型纳入了许多以前的官方就业数据、其他宏观经济变量以及来自其自己的就业平台的数据；万神殿宏观经济学表示：“由于德尔塔变异毒株对服务业的打击，8 月份就业人数疲软，这种疲软可能会限制 ADP 数据。”“因此，与共识的超调表明，ADP模型的其他输入比我们预期的要强，但没有公布任何细节，因此我们不知道超调是模型驱动的，还是由于ADP客户的就业数据更强劲”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS:</b>Initial jobless claims data for the week that coincides with the BLS jobs report survey window saw claims at around 351k – little changed from the 349k for the August jobs data survey window – where analysts said seasonal factors played a role in boosting the weekly data, while there may have been some lingering Hurricane Ida effects; the corresponding continuing claims data has fallen to 2.802mln in the September survey period vs 2.908mln in the August survey period. In aggregate, the data continues to point to declining trend, although in recent weeks the level of jobless claims has been picking up again.</p><p><blockquote><b>首次申请失业救济人数：</b>与 BLS 就业报告调查窗口相吻合的一周首次申请失业救济人数约为 35.1 万人，与 8 月份就业数据调查窗口的 34.9 万人几乎没有变化，分析师表示，季节性因素在提振每周数据方面发挥了作用，而可能存在一些挥之不去的飓风艾达的影响；相应的持续索赔数据在9月份调查期间降至280.2万份，而8月份调查期间为290.8万份。总体而言，数据继续指向下降趋势，尽管最近几周申请失业救济人数的水平再次回升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BUSINESS SURVEYS</b>: The Services and Manufacturing ISM reports showed divergent trends in September, with the service sector employment sub-index easing a little to 53.0 from 53.7, signalling growth but at a slower rate, while the manufacturing employment sub-index rose back into expansionary territory, printing 50.2 from 49.0 prior. On the manufacturing sector, ISM said companies were still struggling to meet labour-management plans, but noted some modest signs of progress compared to previous months: \"Less than 5% of comments noted improvements regarding employment, compared to none in August,\" it said, \"an overwhelming majority of panelists indicate their companies are hiring or attempting to hire,\" where around 85% of responses were about seeking additional staffing, while nearly half of the respondents expressed difficulty in filling positions, an increase from August. \"The increasing frequency of comments on turnover rates and retirements continued a trend that began in August,\" ISM said. Meanwhile, in the services sector, employment activity rose for a third straight month; respondents noted that employees were flocking to better-paying jobs and there was a lack of pipeline to replace these staff, while other respondents talked of labor shortages being experienced at all levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>商业调查</b>: 9 月份服务业和制造业 ISM 报告显示了不同的趋势，服务业就业分项指数从 53.7 小幅放缓至 53.0，表明增长，但速度较慢，而制造业就业分项指数回升至扩张区域，从之前的 49.0 升至 50.2。在制造业方面，ISM 表示，企业仍在努力实现劳动力管理计划，但指出与前几个月相比有一些适度的进展迹象：“不到 5% 的评论指出就业有所改善，而 8 月份则没有，”它表示，“绝大多数小组成员表示他们的公司正在招聘或试图招聘，”其中约 85% 的回答是关于寻求额外的员工，而近一半的受访者表示难以填补职位，这一比例较 8 月份有所增加。ISM 表示：“有关离职率和退休的评论越来越频繁，延续了 8 月份开始的趋势。”与此同时，服务业就业活动连续第三个月上升；受访者指出，员工纷纷涌向薪酬更高的工作，缺乏替代这些员工的渠道，而其他受访者则谈到各级都出现了劳动力短缺。</blockquote></p><p> <b>ARGUING FOR A BETTER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT</b>:</p><p><blockquote><b>争取一份好于预期的报告</b>:</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>End of federal enhanced unemployment beneﬁts</b>. The expiration of federal beneﬁts in some states boosted labor supply and job-ﬁnding rates over the summer, and all remaining such programs expired on September 5. The July and August indicated a cumulative 6pp boost to job-ﬁnding probabilities from June to August for workers losing $300 top-up payments and a 12pp boost for workers losing all beneﬁts.<b>Some of the 6mn workers who lost some or all beneﬁts on September 5 got a job by September 18—in time to be counted in tomorrow’s data.</b>Goldman assumes a +200k boost to job growth from this channel, with a larger increase in subsequent reports (+1.3mn cumulatively by year end).</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa8e5900cf66c76d4b64055f84e58048\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>联邦增强失业救济金的终止</b>.一些州的联邦福利到期提高了夏季的劳动力供应和就业率，所有剩余的此类计划都于9月5日到期。7 月和 8 月显示，从 6 月到 8 月，失去 300 美元充值付款的工人的求职概率累计增加了 6 个百分点，失去所有福利的工人的求职概率累计增加了 12 个百分点。<b>9 月 5 日失去部分或全部福利的 600 万工人中，有一些人在 9 月 18 日找到了工作--及时计入明天的数据。</b>高盛假设这一渠道将推动就业增长+20万人，随后的报告将有更大的增长（截至年底累计+130万人）。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>School reopening</b>. The largest 100 school districts are all open for in-person learning, catalyzing the return of many previously furloughed teachers and support staff. While full normalization of employment levels would contribute 600k jobs (mom sa, see left panel of the chart below), some janitors and support staff did not return due to hybrid teaching models, and job openings in the sector are only 200k above the pre-crisis level (see right panel). Relatedly, the BLS’s seasonal factors already embed the usual rehiring of education workers on summer layoff, so if fewer janitors returned to work than in a typical September, this would reduce seasonally adjusted job growth, other things equal. Taken together, assume a roughly 150k boost from the reopening of schools in tomorrow’s report.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff3e69723b40e0d372ec2bebecb38b1f\" tg-width=\"799\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>学校复课</b>最大的100个学区都开放面对面学习，促使许多以前休假的教师和辅助人员重返校园。虽然就业水平的完全正常化将提供60万个工作岗位（mom sa，见下图左图），但由于混合教学模式，一些看门人和辅助人员没有返回，该部门的职位空缺仅比危机前的水平高出20万个（见右图）。与此相关的是，在其他条件相同的情况下，劳工统计局的季节性因素已经包含了教育工作者通常在夏季裁员时重新招聘的情况，因此，如果重返工作岗位的清洁工少于典型的 9 月份，这将降低经季节性调整后的就业增长。综合来看，在明天的报告中，学校重新开放将带来大约 15 万人的增长。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Job availability</b>. The Conference Board labor differential—the difference between the percent of respondents saying jobs are plentiful and those saying jobs are hardto get - edged down to 42.5 from 44.4, still an elevated level. Additionally, JOLTS job openings increased by 749k in July to a new record high of 10.9mn.</li>  <li><b>ADP.</b>Private sector employment in the ADP report increased by 568k in September, above consensus expectations for a 430k gain, implying strong growth in the underlying ADP sample. Additionally, schools generally do not use ADP payroll software, arguing for a larger gain from school reopening in the official payroll measure.</li> </ul> <b>ARGUING FOR A WEAKER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT:</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>工作可用性</b>世界大型企业联合会劳动力差异——认为工作机会充足的受访者和认为工作机会很难找到的受访者之间的差异——从44.4%降至42.5%，仍然是一个较高的水平。此外，JOLTS 7月份职位空缺增加了74.9万个，达到1090万个的新高。</li><li><b>ADP。</b>ADP报告中的私营部门就业人数在9月份增加了56.8万人，高于市场普遍预期的43万人，这意味着基础ADP样本的强劲增长。此外，学校通常不使用ADP工资软件，认为在官方工资衡量标准中，学校重新开放会带来更大的收益。</li></ul><b>主张报告弱于预期：</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Delta variant.</b>Rebounding covid infection rates weighed on services consumption and the labor market in August. And while US case counts began to decline in early September, restaurant seatings on Open Table rebounded only marginally. leisure and hospitality employment rose in September, but probably not at the ~400k monthly pace of June and July.</li>  <li><b>Employer surveys</b>. The employment components of our business surveys were flat to down, whereas we and consensus forecast a pickup in job growth. Goldman's services survey employment tracker remained unchanged at 54.5 and the manufacturing survey employment tracker declined 0.4pt to 57.8. And while the Goldman Sachs Analyst Index (GSAI) decreased 0.8% to 68.5, the employment component rose1.9% to 71.9.</li> </ul> <b>NEUTRAL FACTORS:</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>德尔塔变异毒株.</b>8 月份新冠感染率反弹给服务消费和劳动力市场带来压力。虽然美国病例数在9月初开始下降，但开放餐桌的餐厅座位仅略有反弹。9 月份休闲和酒店业就业人数有所增长，但可能不会达到 6 月和 7 月每月约 40 万人的增长速度。</li><li><b>雇主调查</b>我们的商业调查中的就业组成部分持平或下降，而我们和共识预测就业增长将回升。高盛服务业调查就业跟踪指数保持在 54.5 不变，制造业调查就业跟踪指数下降 0.4 个百分点至 57.8。高盛分析师指数 (GSAI) 下降 0.8% 至 68.5，而就业成分上升 1.9% 至 71.9。</li></ul><b>中性因素：</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Big Data.</b>High-frequency data on the labor market were mixed between the August and September survey weeks, on net providing little guidance about the underlying pace of job growth. Three of the five measures tracked indicate an at-or-above-consensus gain (Census Small Business Pulse +0.5mn, ADP +0.6mn,Google mobility +2mn), but the Homebase data was an outlier to the downside. At face value, it would indicate a large outright decline in payrolls. The Census Household Pulse (-0.6mn) was also quite weak, though encouragingly, it also indicated a large drop in childcare-related labor supply headwinds as schools reopened.</li>  <li><b>Seasonality.</b>The September seasonal hurdle is relatively low: the BLS adjustment factors generally assume a 600-700k decline in private payrolls (which exclude public schools), compared to around -100k on average in July and August. Continued labor shortages encouraged firms to lay off fewer workers at the end of summer. Partially offsetting this tailwind, the September seasonal factors may have evolved unfavorably due to the crisis—specifically by fitting to last September’s reopening-driven job surge (private payrolls +932k mom sa).</li>  <li><b>Jobless claims.</b>Initial jobless claims fell during the September payroll month, averaging 339k per week vs. 378k in August despite a boost from individuals transitioning or attempting to transition to state programs. Across all employee programs including emergency benefits, continuing claims fell dramatically (-3.3mn)–but again for non-economic reasons (federal enhanced programs expired). Continuing claims in regular state programs decreased 106k from survey week to survey week.</li>  <li><b>Job cuts.</b>Announced layoffs reported by Challenger, Gray &amp; Christmas rebounded 11% month-over-month in September after decreasing by 14% over the prior two months (SA by GS). Nonetheless, layoffs remain near the three-decade low on this measure (in 1993).</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>大数据。</b>8 月至 9 月调查周期间，劳动力市场的高频数据好坏参半，对就业增长的基本速度几乎没有提供指导。跟踪的五项指标中有三项显示增幅达到或高于共识（人口普查小企业脉冲+50万，ADP+60万，谷歌移动+200万），但Homebase数据是下行的异常值。从表面上看，这将表明就业人数大幅下降。人口普查家庭脉搏（-60万）也相当疲软，尽管令人鼓舞，但它也表明随着学校重新开放，与儿童保育相关的劳动力供应逆风大幅下降。</li><li><b>季节性。</b>9月份的季节性障碍相对较低：BLS调整因素通常假设私人就业人数（不包括公立学校）下降60-70万人，而7月和8月的平均就业人数约为-10万人。持续的劳动力短缺鼓励企业在夏季结束时减少裁员。9 月份的季节性因素可能因危机而发生了不利的演变，这在一定程度上抵消了这一推动力--特别是与去年 9 月份重新开放推动的就业激增相吻合（私人就业人数 +93.2 万 mom sa）。</li><li><b>申请失业救济金。</b>尽管个人过渡到或试图过渡到国家计划，但9月份的首次申请失业救济人数有所上升，平均每周为33.9万人，而8月份为37.8万人。在包括紧急福利在内的所有员工计划中，持续索赔大幅下降（-330万）——但同样是因为非经济原因（联邦增强型计划到期）。从调查周到调查周，常规州项目的持续申请减少了10.6万人。</li><li><b>裁员。</b>Challenger、Gray &amp; Christmas 报告的宣布裁员人数在前两个月下降 14% 后，9 月份环比反弹 11%（SA by GS）。尽管如此，这一指标的裁员仍接近三十年来的最低点（1993 年）。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>September Payrolls Preview: It Will Be A Beat, The Question Is How Big<blockquote>9 月份就业预览：这将是一个节拍，问题是有多大</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSeptember Payrolls Preview: It Will Be A Beat, The Question Is How Big<blockquote>9 月份就业预览：这将是一个节拍，问题是有多大</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-08 14:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>After a strong initial claims report and a solid ADP private payrolls print, all eyes turn to the most important economic data point of the week, and the month, Friday's nonfarm payrolls report due at 830am ET on Friday, where consensus expects a 500K print- more than double last month's disappointing 235K print - as well as a drop in the unemployment rate to 5.1% and an increase in average hourly earnings to 4.6%. And unlike last month, when wecorrectly predicted the big miss in August payrolls, this time we agree that tomorrow's report will be a beat, the only question is how big.</p><p><blockquote>在强劲的初始申请失业救济金报告和稳健的 ADP 私人就业数据之后，所有人的目光都转向了本周和本月最重要的经济数据点，即美国东部时间周五上午 8:30 发布的周五非农就业报告，普遍预计将有 50 万人就业，是上个月令人失望的 23.5 万人就业的两倍多，失业率将降至 5.1%，平均时薪将增至 4.6%。与上个月不同，当时我们正确预测了 8 月份就业人数的重大失误，这次我们同意明天的报告将是一个打击，唯一的问题是有多大。</blockquote></p><p> Here is a snapshot of what to expect tomorrow:</p><p><blockquote>以下是明天的快照：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Total Payrolls: 500K, Last 235K</li>  <li>Private Payrolls: 450K, Last 243K</li>  <li>Unemployment Rate: 5.1%, Last 5.2%</li>  <li>Labor force participation rate: 61.8%, Last 61.7%</li>  <li>Average Hourly Earnings Y/Y: 4.6%, Last 4.3%</li>  <li>Average Weekly Hours: 34.7, Last 34.7</li> </ul> As&nbsp;Newsquawk&nbsp;writes in its NFP preview, September’s jobs data, the last before the Fed’s November 3rd policy meeting, will be framed in the context of the central bank’s expected taper announcement, where a merely satisfactory report would likely to be enough for the FOMC to greenlight a November announcement to scale-back its USD 120BN/month asset purchases.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>总就业人数：50万，最后23.5万</li><li>私人就业人数：45万，最后24.3万</li><li>失业率：5.1%，去年5.2%</li><li>劳动力参与率：61.8%，去年61.7%</li><li>平均每小时收益同比：4.6%，去年 4.3%</li><li>平均每周小时数：34.7，最近34.7</li></ul>正如 Newsquawk 在其 NFP 预览中所写的那样，9 月份的就业数据是美联储 11 月 3 日政策会议前的最后一份数据，它将以美联储预期宣布缩减规模为背景，而一份令人满意的报告可能就足以让联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 在 11 月份宣布缩减每月 1200 亿美元的资产购买规模。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman economists are more bullish than normal, and estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 600k in September, above consensus of +500k, and they note that \"labor demand remains very strong,&nbsp;<b>and we believe the nationwide expiration of enhanced unemployment beneﬁts on September 5 boosted effective labor supply and job growth—as it did in July and August in states that ended federal beneﬁts early.\"</b>As a result, Goldman is assuming a 200k boost in tomorrow’s numbers and a larger boost in October. The bank also believes the reopening of schools contributed to September job growth, by around 150k. Despite these tailwinds, Big Data employment signals were mixed, and dining activity rebounded only marginally.</p><p><blockquote>高盛经济学家比正常情况更加乐观，估计 9 月份非农就业人数增加 60 万人，高于 +50 万人的共识，他们指出“劳动力需求仍然非常强劲，<b>我们相信，9 月 5 日全国范围内增加的失业救济金到期促进了有效劳动力供应和就业增长——就像 7 月和 8 月提前结束联邦福利的州所做的那样。”</b>因此，高盛预计明天的数字将增加 20 万，10 月份的数字将增加更多。该银行还认为，学校的重新开放促进了9月份就业岗位的增长，增加了约15万个。尽管有这些有利因素，大数据就业信号好坏参半，餐饮活动仅小幅反弹。</blockquote></p><p> Labor market proxies have been constructive for the month: ADP’s gauge of payrolls surprised to the upside, although analysts continue to note that the direct relationship between the official data and the ADP’s gauge is tenuous, despite the gap being under 100k over the last three reports. The number of initial jobless claims and continuing claims has eased back between the survey periods of the August and September jobs data, although analysts note that more recent releases have shown an uptick in claims potentially clouding the outlook. The ISM business surveys have signaled employment growth in the month, with manufacturing employment rising into growth territory again, but services sector hiring cooled a little in the month, but remains expansionary; survey commentary continues to allude to a tight labour market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September employment situation report at 13:30BST/08:30EDT on October 8th.</p><p><blockquote>本月劳动力市场指标具有建设性： 尽管分析师们继续指出，官方数据与 ADP 指标之间的直接关系很脆弱，但在过去三份报告中，官方数据与 ADP 指标之间的直接关系很脆弱。在 8 月至 9 月就业数据调查期间，首次申请失业救济人数和持续申请失业救济人数有所回落，尽管分析师指出，最近公布的数据显示申请失业救济人数上升，这可能会给前景蒙上阴影。ISM商业调查显示本月就业增长，制造业就业再次进入增长区域，但服务业招聘本月略有降温，但仍保持扩张性；调查评论继续暗示劳动力市场紧张。美国劳工统计局将于10月8日英国夏令时13:30/美国东部时间08:30发布9月份就业形势报告。</blockquote></p><p> <b>POLICY</b>: The September jobs report might have reduced relevance on trading conditions given that Fed officials have effectively confirmed that, barring a collapse in the jobs data, it is on course to announce a tapering of its asset purchases at the November 3rd meeting. Accordingly, trading risks may be skewed to the downside, rather than to the upside, where a significant payrolls miss may present obstacles to the Fed announcing its taper. Additionally, it is worth being cognizant of how efforts in Washington to raise the debt ceiling are progressing; as yet, officials have not struck a deal, and are in the process of enacting stop gap legislation to allow funding into December; some analysts suggest that the Fed may be reticent to tighten policy in the face of potential default risks.</p><p><blockquote><b>政策</b>：鉴于美联储官员已有效确认，除非就业数据暴跌，否则美联储将在 11 月 3 日的会议上宣布缩减资产购买规模，因此 9 月份就业报告可能会降低其对交易条件的相关性。因此，交易风险可能会向下行倾斜，而不是向上行倾斜，因为就业数据的大幅下降可能会给美联储宣布缩减规模带来障碍。此外，值得认识到华盛顿提高债务上限的努力是如何取得进展的；到目前为止，官员们尚未达成协议，并正在制定权宜之计立法，以允许在 12 月之前提供资金；有分析师暗示，面对潜在的违约风险，美联储可能不愿收紧政策。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PAYROLLS:</b>The consensus looks for 500k nonfarm payrolls to be added to the US economy in September (prev. 235k), which would be a cooler rate of growth than the three- and six-month average rate, though in line with the 12-month average (3-month average is 750k/month, the six-month average is 653k/month, and the 12-month average is 503k/month – that technically at least suggests an improving rate of payrolls growth in recent months).<b>Aggregating the nonfarm payrolls data since March 2020, around 5.33mln Americans remain out of work relative to pre-pandemic levels.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>工资单：</b>共识预计9月份美国经济将增加50万非农就业人数（上一篇。23.5万），这将是一个比三个月和六个月平均增长率更冷的增长率，尽管与12个月的平均水平一致（3个月平均水平为75万/月，6个月平均水平为65.3万/月，12个月平均水平为50.3万/月——从技术上讲，这至少表明最近几个月的就业增长率有所提高）。<b>汇总2020年3月以来的非农就业数据，相对于大流行前的水平，约有533万美国人仍然失业。</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>MEASURES OF SLACK:</b>The Unemployment Rate is expected at 5.1% (prev. 5.2%); Labour Force Participation previously at 61.7% vs 63.2% pre-pandemic; U6 measure of underemployment was previously at 8.8% vs 7.0% prepandemic; Employment-population ratio was previously 58.5% vs 61.1% pre-pandemic. These measures of slack are likely to provide more insight into how Fed officials are judging labour market progress, with many in recent months noting that they are closely watching the Underemployment Rate, Participation Rate, and the Employment-Population Ratio for a better handle on the level of slack that remains in the economy. Analysts would be encouraged the closer these get to pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>松弛的度量：</b>失业率预计为5.1%（之前为5.2%）；劳动力参与率此前为61.7%，而大流行前为63.2%；U6 就业不足指标此前为 8.8%，而大流行前为 7.0%；就业人口比率此前为58.5%，而疫情前为61.1%。这些松弛的衡量标准可能会让人们更深入地了解美联储官员如何判断劳动力市场的进展，近几个月来，许多官员指出，他们正在密切关注就业不足率、参与率和就业与人口比率，以更好地处理经济中仍然存在的松弛程度。分析师们会受到鼓舞，因为这些数字越接近大流行前的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>EARNINGS:</b>Average Hourly Earnings expected at +0.4% M/M (prev. +0.6%); Average Hourly Earnings expected at +4. 6% Y/Y (prev. +4.3%); Average Workweek Hours expected at 34.7hrs (prev. 34.7hrs). Aggregating the nonfarm payrolls data since March 2020, around 5.33mln Americans still remain out of work relative to pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>收益：</b>平均每小时收益预计为 +0.4%（之前为 +0.6%）；平均小时收益预计同比+4.6%（前值+4.3%）；平均每周工作时间预计为34.7小时（以前。34.7小时）.汇总2020年3月以来的非农就业数据，相对于大流行前的水平，约有533万美国人仍然失业。</blockquote></p><p> <b>ADP:</b>The ADP National Employment Report showed 568k jobs added to the US economy in September, topping expectations for 428k, and a better pace than the prior 340k (revised down from 374k initially reported). ADP itself said that the labor market recovery continued to make progress despite the marked slowdown in the rate of job additions from the 748k pace seen in Q2. It also noted that Leisure &amp; Hospitality remained one of the biggest beneficiaries to the recovery, though said that hiring was still heavily impacted by the trajectory of the pandemic, especially for small firms. ADP thinks that the current bottlenecks in hiring will likely fade as the pandemic situation continues to improve, and that could set the stage for solid job gains in the months ahead. On the data methodology, analysts continue to note that ADP's model incorporates much of the prior official payrolls data, other macroeconomic variables, as well as data from its own payrolls platform; \"Payrolls were soft in August, thanks to the hit to the services sector from the Delta variant, and that weakness likely constrained ADP data,\" Pantheon Macroeconomics said. \"The overshoot to consensus, therefore, suggests that the other inputs to ADP’s model were stronger than we expected, but none of the details are published, so we don’t know if the overshoot was model-driven or due to stronger employment data at ADP’s clients.\"</p><p><blockquote><b>ADP：</b>ADP全国就业报告显示，9月份美国经济新增就业岗位56.8万个，高于预期的42.8万个，增速好于之前的34万个（从最初报告的37.4万个下调）。ADP本身表示，尽管第二季度的74.8万个工作岗位增加速度明显放缓，但劳动力市场复苏继续取得进展。它还指出，休闲和酒店业仍然是复苏的最大受益者之一，尽管表示招聘仍然受到疫情轨迹的严重影响，特别是对小公司而言。ADP认为，随着疫情形势的持续改善，当前的招聘瓶颈可能会消失，这可能会为未来几个月的稳健就业增长创造条件。在数据方法方面，分析师继续指出，ADP的模型纳入了许多以前的官方就业数据、其他宏观经济变量以及来自其自己的就业平台的数据；万神殿宏观经济学表示：“由于德尔塔变异毒株对服务业的打击，8 月份就业人数疲软，这种疲软可能会限制 ADP 数据。”“因此，与共识的超调表明，ADP模型的其他输入比我们预期的要强，但没有公布任何细节，因此我们不知道超调是模型驱动的，还是由于ADP客户的就业数据更强劲”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS:</b>Initial jobless claims data for the week that coincides with the BLS jobs report survey window saw claims at around 351k – little changed from the 349k for the August jobs data survey window – where analysts said seasonal factors played a role in boosting the weekly data, while there may have been some lingering Hurricane Ida effects; the corresponding continuing claims data has fallen to 2.802mln in the September survey period vs 2.908mln in the August survey period. In aggregate, the data continues to point to declining trend, although in recent weeks the level of jobless claims has been picking up again.</p><p><blockquote><b>首次申请失业救济人数：</b>与 BLS 就业报告调查窗口相吻合的一周首次申请失业救济人数约为 35.1 万人，与 8 月份就业数据调查窗口的 34.9 万人几乎没有变化，分析师表示，季节性因素在提振每周数据方面发挥了作用，而可能存在一些挥之不去的飓风艾达的影响；相应的持续索赔数据在9月份调查期间降至280.2万份，而8月份调查期间为290.8万份。总体而言，数据继续指向下降趋势，尽管最近几周申请失业救济人数的水平再次回升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BUSINESS SURVEYS</b>: The Services and Manufacturing ISM reports showed divergent trends in September, with the service sector employment sub-index easing a little to 53.0 from 53.7, signalling growth but at a slower rate, while the manufacturing employment sub-index rose back into expansionary territory, printing 50.2 from 49.0 prior. On the manufacturing sector, ISM said companies were still struggling to meet labour-management plans, but noted some modest signs of progress compared to previous months: \"Less than 5% of comments noted improvements regarding employment, compared to none in August,\" it said, \"an overwhelming majority of panelists indicate their companies are hiring or attempting to hire,\" where around 85% of responses were about seeking additional staffing, while nearly half of the respondents expressed difficulty in filling positions, an increase from August. \"The increasing frequency of comments on turnover rates and retirements continued a trend that began in August,\" ISM said. Meanwhile, in the services sector, employment activity rose for a third straight month; respondents noted that employees were flocking to better-paying jobs and there was a lack of pipeline to replace these staff, while other respondents talked of labor shortages being experienced at all levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>商业调查</b>: 9 月份服务业和制造业 ISM 报告显示了不同的趋势，服务业就业分项指数从 53.7 小幅放缓至 53.0，表明增长，但速度较慢，而制造业就业分项指数回升至扩张区域，从之前的 49.0 升至 50.2。在制造业方面，ISM 表示，企业仍在努力实现劳动力管理计划，但指出与前几个月相比有一些适度的进展迹象：“不到 5% 的评论指出就业有所改善，而 8 月份则没有，”它表示，“绝大多数小组成员表示他们的公司正在招聘或试图招聘，”其中约 85% 的回答是关于寻求额外的员工，而近一半的受访者表示难以填补职位，这一比例较 8 月份有所增加。ISM 表示：“有关离职率和退休的评论越来越频繁，延续了 8 月份开始的趋势。”与此同时，服务业就业活动连续第三个月上升；受访者指出，员工纷纷涌向薪酬更高的工作，缺乏替代这些员工的渠道，而其他受访者则谈到各级都出现了劳动力短缺。</blockquote></p><p> <b>ARGUING FOR A BETTER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT</b>:</p><p><blockquote><b>争取一份好于预期的报告</b>:</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>End of federal enhanced unemployment beneﬁts</b>. The expiration of federal beneﬁts in some states boosted labor supply and job-ﬁnding rates over the summer, and all remaining such programs expired on September 5. The July and August indicated a cumulative 6pp boost to job-ﬁnding probabilities from June to August for workers losing $300 top-up payments and a 12pp boost for workers losing all beneﬁts.<b>Some of the 6mn workers who lost some or all beneﬁts on September 5 got a job by September 18—in time to be counted in tomorrow’s data.</b>Goldman assumes a +200k boost to job growth from this channel, with a larger increase in subsequent reports (+1.3mn cumulatively by year end).</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa8e5900cf66c76d4b64055f84e58048\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>联邦增强失业救济金的终止</b>.一些州的联邦福利到期提高了夏季的劳动力供应和就业率，所有剩余的此类计划都于9月5日到期。7 月和 8 月显示，从 6 月到 8 月，失去 300 美元充值付款的工人的求职概率累计增加了 6 个百分点，失去所有福利的工人的求职概率累计增加了 12 个百分点。<b>9 月 5 日失去部分或全部福利的 600 万工人中，有一些人在 9 月 18 日找到了工作--及时计入明天的数据。</b>高盛假设这一渠道将推动就业增长+20万人，随后的报告将有更大的增长（截至年底累计+130万人）。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>School reopening</b>. The largest 100 school districts are all open for in-person learning, catalyzing the return of many previously furloughed teachers and support staff. While full normalization of employment levels would contribute 600k jobs (mom sa, see left panel of the chart below), some janitors and support staff did not return due to hybrid teaching models, and job openings in the sector are only 200k above the pre-crisis level (see right panel). Relatedly, the BLS’s seasonal factors already embed the usual rehiring of education workers on summer layoff, so if fewer janitors returned to work than in a typical September, this would reduce seasonally adjusted job growth, other things equal. Taken together, assume a roughly 150k boost from the reopening of schools in tomorrow’s report.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff3e69723b40e0d372ec2bebecb38b1f\" tg-width=\"799\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>学校复课</b>最大的100个学区都开放面对面学习，促使许多以前休假的教师和辅助人员重返校园。虽然就业水平的完全正常化将提供60万个工作岗位（mom sa，见下图左图），但由于混合教学模式，一些看门人和辅助人员没有返回，该部门的职位空缺仅比危机前的水平高出20万个（见右图）。与此相关的是，在其他条件相同的情况下，劳工统计局的季节性因素已经包含了教育工作者通常在夏季裁员时重新招聘的情况，因此，如果重返工作岗位的清洁工少于典型的 9 月份，这将降低经季节性调整后的就业增长。综合来看，在明天的报告中，学校重新开放将带来大约 15 万人的增长。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Job availability</b>. The Conference Board labor differential—the difference between the percent of respondents saying jobs are plentiful and those saying jobs are hardto get - edged down to 42.5 from 44.4, still an elevated level. Additionally, JOLTS job openings increased by 749k in July to a new record high of 10.9mn.</li>  <li><b>ADP.</b>Private sector employment in the ADP report increased by 568k in September, above consensus expectations for a 430k gain, implying strong growth in the underlying ADP sample. Additionally, schools generally do not use ADP payroll software, arguing for a larger gain from school reopening in the official payroll measure.</li> </ul> <b>ARGUING FOR A WEAKER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT:</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>工作可用性</b>世界大型企业联合会劳动力差异——认为工作机会充足的受访者和认为工作机会很难找到的受访者之间的差异——从44.4%降至42.5%，仍然是一个较高的水平。此外，JOLTS 7月份职位空缺增加了74.9万个，达到1090万个的新高。</li><li><b>ADP。</b>ADP报告中的私营部门就业人数在9月份增加了56.8万人，高于市场普遍预期的43万人，这意味着基础ADP样本的强劲增长。此外，学校通常不使用ADP工资软件，认为在官方工资衡量标准中，学校重新开放会带来更大的收益。</li></ul><b>主张报告弱于预期：</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Delta variant.</b>Rebounding covid infection rates weighed on services consumption and the labor market in August. And while US case counts began to decline in early September, restaurant seatings on Open Table rebounded only marginally. leisure and hospitality employment rose in September, but probably not at the ~400k monthly pace of June and July.</li>  <li><b>Employer surveys</b>. The employment components of our business surveys were flat to down, whereas we and consensus forecast a pickup in job growth. Goldman's services survey employment tracker remained unchanged at 54.5 and the manufacturing survey employment tracker declined 0.4pt to 57.8. And while the Goldman Sachs Analyst Index (GSAI) decreased 0.8% to 68.5, the employment component rose1.9% to 71.9.</li> </ul> <b>NEUTRAL FACTORS:</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>德尔塔变异毒株.</b>8 月份新冠感染率反弹给服务消费和劳动力市场带来压力。虽然美国病例数在9月初开始下降，但开放餐桌的餐厅座位仅略有反弹。9 月份休闲和酒店业就业人数有所增长，但可能不会达到 6 月和 7 月每月约 40 万人的增长速度。</li><li><b>雇主调查</b>我们的商业调查中的就业组成部分持平或下降，而我们和共识预测就业增长将回升。高盛服务业调查就业跟踪指数保持在 54.5 不变，制造业调查就业跟踪指数下降 0.4 个百分点至 57.8。高盛分析师指数 (GSAI) 下降 0.8% 至 68.5，而就业成分上升 1.9% 至 71.9。</li></ul><b>中性因素：</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Big Data.</b>High-frequency data on the labor market were mixed between the August and September survey weeks, on net providing little guidance about the underlying pace of job growth. Three of the five measures tracked indicate an at-or-above-consensus gain (Census Small Business Pulse +0.5mn, ADP +0.6mn,Google mobility +2mn), but the Homebase data was an outlier to the downside. At face value, it would indicate a large outright decline in payrolls. The Census Household Pulse (-0.6mn) was also quite weak, though encouragingly, it also indicated a large drop in childcare-related labor supply headwinds as schools reopened.</li>  <li><b>Seasonality.</b>The September seasonal hurdle is relatively low: the BLS adjustment factors generally assume a 600-700k decline in private payrolls (which exclude public schools), compared to around -100k on average in July and August. Continued labor shortages encouraged firms to lay off fewer workers at the end of summer. Partially offsetting this tailwind, the September seasonal factors may have evolved unfavorably due to the crisis—specifically by fitting to last September’s reopening-driven job surge (private payrolls +932k mom sa).</li>  <li><b>Jobless claims.</b>Initial jobless claims fell during the September payroll month, averaging 339k per week vs. 378k in August despite a boost from individuals transitioning or attempting to transition to state programs. Across all employee programs including emergency benefits, continuing claims fell dramatically (-3.3mn)–but again for non-economic reasons (federal enhanced programs expired). Continuing claims in regular state programs decreased 106k from survey week to survey week.</li>  <li><b>Job cuts.</b>Announced layoffs reported by Challenger, Gray &amp; Christmas rebounded 11% month-over-month in September after decreasing by 14% over the prior two months (SA by GS). Nonetheless, layoffs remain near the three-decade low on this measure (in 1993).</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>大数据。</b>8 月至 9 月调查周期间，劳动力市场的高频数据好坏参半，对就业增长的基本速度几乎没有提供指导。跟踪的五项指标中有三项显示增幅达到或高于共识（人口普查小企业脉冲+50万，ADP+60万，谷歌移动+200万），但Homebase数据是下行的异常值。从表面上看，这将表明就业人数大幅下降。人口普查家庭脉搏（-60万）也相当疲软，尽管令人鼓舞，但它也表明随着学校重新开放，与儿童保育相关的劳动力供应逆风大幅下降。</li><li><b>季节性。</b>9月份的季节性障碍相对较低：BLS调整因素通常假设私人就业人数（不包括公立学校）下降60-70万人，而7月和8月的平均就业人数约为-10万人。持续的劳动力短缺鼓励企业在夏季结束时减少裁员。9 月份的季节性因素可能因危机而发生了不利的演变，这在一定程度上抵消了这一推动力--特别是与去年 9 月份重新开放推动的就业激增相吻合（私人就业人数 +93.2 万 mom sa）。</li><li><b>申请失业救济金。</b>尽管个人过渡到或试图过渡到国家计划，但9月份的首次申请失业救济人数有所上升，平均每周为33.9万人，而8月份为37.8万人。在包括紧急福利在内的所有员工计划中，持续索赔大幅下降（-330万）——但同样是因为非经济原因（联邦增强型计划到期）。从调查周到调查周，常规州项目的持续申请减少了10.6万人。</li><li><b>裁员。</b>Challenger、Gray &amp; Christmas 报告的宣布裁员人数在前两个月下降 14% 后，9 月份环比反弹 11%（SA by GS）。尽管如此，这一指标的裁员仍接近三十年来的最低点（1993 年）。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/september-payrolls-preview-it-will-be-beat-question-how-big\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/september-payrolls-preview-it-will-be-beat-question-how-big","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135993400","content_text":"After a strong initial claims report and a solid ADP private payrolls print, all eyes turn to the most important economic data point of the week, and the month, Friday's nonfarm payrolls report due at 830am ET on Friday, where consensus expects a 500K print- more than double last month's disappointing 235K print - as well as a drop in the unemployment rate to 5.1% and an increase in average hourly earnings to 4.6%. And unlike last month, when wecorrectly predicted the big miss in August payrolls, this time we agree that tomorrow's report will be a beat, the only question is how big.\nHere is a snapshot of what to expect tomorrow:\n\nTotal Payrolls: 500K, Last 235K\nPrivate Payrolls: 450K, Last 243K\nUnemployment Rate: 5.1%, Last 5.2%\nLabor force participation rate: 61.8%, Last 61.7%\nAverage Hourly Earnings Y/Y: 4.6%, Last 4.3%\nAverage Weekly Hours: 34.7, Last 34.7\n\nAs Newsquawk writes in its NFP preview, September’s jobs data, the last before the Fed’s November 3rd policy meeting, will be framed in the context of the central bank’s expected taper announcement, where a merely satisfactory report would likely to be enough for the FOMC to greenlight a November announcement to scale-back its USD 120BN/month asset purchases.\nGoldman economists are more bullish than normal, and estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 600k in September, above consensus of +500k, and they note that \"labor demand remains very strong, and we believe the nationwide expiration of enhanced unemployment beneﬁts on September 5 boosted effective labor supply and job growth—as it did in July and August in states that ended federal beneﬁts early.\"As a result, Goldman is assuming a 200k boost in tomorrow’s numbers and a larger boost in October. The bank also believes the reopening of schools contributed to September job growth, by around 150k. Despite these tailwinds, Big Data employment signals were mixed, and dining activity rebounded only marginally.\nLabor market proxies have been constructive for the month: ADP’s gauge of payrolls surprised to the upside, although analysts continue to note that the direct relationship between the official data and the ADP’s gauge is tenuous, despite the gap being under 100k over the last three reports. The number of initial jobless claims and continuing claims has eased back between the survey periods of the August and September jobs data, although analysts note that more recent releases have shown an uptick in claims potentially clouding the outlook. The ISM business surveys have signaled employment growth in the month, with manufacturing employment rising into growth territory again, but services sector hiring cooled a little in the month, but remains expansionary; survey commentary continues to allude to a tight labour market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September employment situation report at 13:30BST/08:30EDT on October 8th.\nPOLICY: The September jobs report might have reduced relevance on trading conditions given that Fed officials have effectively confirmed that, barring a collapse in the jobs data, it is on course to announce a tapering of its asset purchases at the November 3rd meeting. Accordingly, trading risks may be skewed to the downside, rather than to the upside, where a significant payrolls miss may present obstacles to the Fed announcing its taper. Additionally, it is worth being cognizant of how efforts in Washington to raise the debt ceiling are progressing; as yet, officials have not struck a deal, and are in the process of enacting stop gap legislation to allow funding into December; some analysts suggest that the Fed may be reticent to tighten policy in the face of potential default risks.\nPAYROLLS:The consensus looks for 500k nonfarm payrolls to be added to the US economy in September (prev. 235k), which would be a cooler rate of growth than the three- and six-month average rate, though in line with the 12-month average (3-month average is 750k/month, the six-month average is 653k/month, and the 12-month average is 503k/month – that technically at least suggests an improving rate of payrolls growth in recent months).Aggregating the nonfarm payrolls data since March 2020, around 5.33mln Americans remain out of work relative to pre-pandemic levels.\nMEASURES OF SLACK:The Unemployment Rate is expected at 5.1% (prev. 5.2%); Labour Force Participation previously at 61.7% vs 63.2% pre-pandemic; U6 measure of underemployment was previously at 8.8% vs 7.0% prepandemic; Employment-population ratio was previously 58.5% vs 61.1% pre-pandemic. These measures of slack are likely to provide more insight into how Fed officials are judging labour market progress, with many in recent months noting that they are closely watching the Underemployment Rate, Participation Rate, and the Employment-Population Ratio for a better handle on the level of slack that remains in the economy. Analysts would be encouraged the closer these get to pre-pandemic levels.\nEARNINGS:Average Hourly Earnings expected at +0.4% M/M (prev. +0.6%); Average Hourly Earnings expected at +4. 6% Y/Y (prev. +4.3%); Average Workweek Hours expected at 34.7hrs (prev. 34.7hrs). Aggregating the nonfarm payrolls data since March 2020, around 5.33mln Americans still remain out of work relative to pre-pandemic levels.\nADP:The ADP National Employment Report showed 568k jobs added to the US economy in September, topping expectations for 428k, and a better pace than the prior 340k (revised down from 374k initially reported). ADP itself said that the labor market recovery continued to make progress despite the marked slowdown in the rate of job additions from the 748k pace seen in Q2. It also noted that Leisure & Hospitality remained one of the biggest beneficiaries to the recovery, though said that hiring was still heavily impacted by the trajectory of the pandemic, especially for small firms. ADP thinks that the current bottlenecks in hiring will likely fade as the pandemic situation continues to improve, and that could set the stage for solid job gains in the months ahead. On the data methodology, analysts continue to note that ADP's model incorporates much of the prior official payrolls data, other macroeconomic variables, as well as data from its own payrolls platform; \"Payrolls were soft in August, thanks to the hit to the services sector from the Delta variant, and that weakness likely constrained ADP data,\" Pantheon Macroeconomics said. \"The overshoot to consensus, therefore, suggests that the other inputs to ADP’s model were stronger than we expected, but none of the details are published, so we don’t know if the overshoot was model-driven or due to stronger employment data at ADP’s clients.\"\nINITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS:Initial jobless claims data for the week that coincides with the BLS jobs report survey window saw claims at around 351k – little changed from the 349k for the August jobs data survey window – where analysts said seasonal factors played a role in boosting the weekly data, while there may have been some lingering Hurricane Ida effects; the corresponding continuing claims data has fallen to 2.802mln in the September survey period vs 2.908mln in the August survey period. In aggregate, the data continues to point to declining trend, although in recent weeks the level of jobless claims has been picking up again.\nBUSINESS SURVEYS: The Services and Manufacturing ISM reports showed divergent trends in September, with the service sector employment sub-index easing a little to 53.0 from 53.7, signalling growth but at a slower rate, while the manufacturing employment sub-index rose back into expansionary territory, printing 50.2 from 49.0 prior. On the manufacturing sector, ISM said companies were still struggling to meet labour-management plans, but noted some modest signs of progress compared to previous months: \"Less than 5% of comments noted improvements regarding employment, compared to none in August,\" it said, \"an overwhelming majority of panelists indicate their companies are hiring or attempting to hire,\" where around 85% of responses were about seeking additional staffing, while nearly half of the respondents expressed difficulty in filling positions, an increase from August. \"The increasing frequency of comments on turnover rates and retirements continued a trend that began in August,\" ISM said. Meanwhile, in the services sector, employment activity rose for a third straight month; respondents noted that employees were flocking to better-paying jobs and there was a lack of pipeline to replace these staff, while other respondents talked of labor shortages being experienced at all levels.\nARGUING FOR A BETTER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT:\n\nEnd of federal enhanced unemployment beneﬁts. The expiration of federal beneﬁts in some states boosted labor supply and job-ﬁnding rates over the summer, and all remaining such programs expired on September 5. The July and August indicated a cumulative 6pp boost to job-ﬁnding probabilities from June to August for workers losing $300 top-up payments and a 12pp boost for workers losing all beneﬁts.Some of the 6mn workers who lost some or all beneﬁts on September 5 got a job by September 18—in time to be counted in tomorrow’s data.Goldman assumes a +200k boost to job growth from this channel, with a larger increase in subsequent reports (+1.3mn cumulatively by year end).\n\n\n\nSchool reopening. The largest 100 school districts are all open for in-person learning, catalyzing the return of many previously furloughed teachers and support staff. While full normalization of employment levels would contribute 600k jobs (mom sa, see left panel of the chart below), some janitors and support staff did not return due to hybrid teaching models, and job openings in the sector are only 200k above the pre-crisis level (see right panel). Relatedly, the BLS’s seasonal factors already embed the usual rehiring of education workers on summer layoff, so if fewer janitors returned to work than in a typical September, this would reduce seasonally adjusted job growth, other things equal. Taken together, assume a roughly 150k boost from the reopening of schools in tomorrow’s report.\n\n\n\nJob availability. The Conference Board labor differential—the difference between the percent of respondents saying jobs are plentiful and those saying jobs are hardto get - edged down to 42.5 from 44.4, still an elevated level. Additionally, JOLTS job openings increased by 749k in July to a new record high of 10.9mn.\nADP.Private sector employment in the ADP report increased by 568k in September, above consensus expectations for a 430k gain, implying strong growth in the underlying ADP sample. Additionally, schools generally do not use ADP payroll software, arguing for a larger gain from school reopening in the official payroll measure.\n\nARGUING FOR A WEAKER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT:\n\nDelta variant.Rebounding covid infection rates weighed on services consumption and the labor market in August. And while US case counts began to decline in early September, restaurant seatings on Open Table rebounded only marginally. leisure and hospitality employment rose in September, but probably not at the ~400k monthly pace of June and July.\nEmployer surveys. The employment components of our business surveys were flat to down, whereas we and consensus forecast a pickup in job growth. Goldman's services survey employment tracker remained unchanged at 54.5 and the manufacturing survey employment tracker declined 0.4pt to 57.8. And while the Goldman Sachs Analyst Index (GSAI) decreased 0.8% to 68.5, the employment component rose1.9% to 71.9.\n\nNEUTRAL FACTORS:\n\nBig Data.High-frequency data on the labor market were mixed between the August and September survey weeks, on net providing little guidance about the underlying pace of job growth. Three of the five measures tracked indicate an at-or-above-consensus gain (Census Small Business Pulse +0.5mn, ADP +0.6mn,Google mobility +2mn), but the Homebase data was an outlier to the downside. At face value, it would indicate a large outright decline in payrolls. The Census Household Pulse (-0.6mn) was also quite weak, though encouragingly, it also indicated a large drop in childcare-related labor supply headwinds as schools reopened.\nSeasonality.The September seasonal hurdle is relatively low: the BLS adjustment factors generally assume a 600-700k decline in private payrolls (which exclude public schools), compared to around -100k on average in July and August. Continued labor shortages encouraged firms to lay off fewer workers at the end of summer. Partially offsetting this tailwind, the September seasonal factors may have evolved unfavorably due to the crisis—specifically by fitting to last September’s reopening-driven job surge (private payrolls +932k mom sa).\nJobless claims.Initial jobless claims fell during the September payroll month, averaging 339k per week vs. 378k in August despite a boost from individuals transitioning or attempting to transition to state programs. Across all employee programs including emergency benefits, continuing claims fell dramatically (-3.3mn)–but again for non-economic reasons (federal enhanced programs expired). Continuing claims in regular state programs decreased 106k from survey week to survey week.\nJob cuts.Announced layoffs reported by Challenger, Gray & Christmas rebounded 11% month-over-month in September after decreasing by 14% over the prior two months (SA by GS). Nonetheless, layoffs remain near the three-decade low on this measure (in 1993).","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2385,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":821928866,"gmtCreate":1633689146600,"gmtModify":1633690062878,"author":{"id":"3582059706803344","authorId":"3582059706803344","name":"YJ12","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/053b18ef264ba18845e0b6ec9727bcb6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582059706803344","idStr":"3582059706803344"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"hello","listText":"hello","text":"hello","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821928866","repostId":"1135993400","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135993400","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633675137,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1135993400?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-08 14:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"September Payrolls Preview: It Will Be A Beat, The Question Is How Big<blockquote>9 月份就业预览：这将是一个节拍，问题是有多大</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135993400","media":"zerohedge","summary":"After a strong initial claims report and a solid ADP private payrolls print, all eyes turn to the mo","content":"<p>After a strong initial claims report and a solid ADP private payrolls print, all eyes turn to the most important economic data point of the week, and the month, Friday's nonfarm payrolls report due at 830am ET on Friday, where consensus expects a 500K print- more than double last month's disappointing 235K print - as well as a drop in the unemployment rate to 5.1% and an increase in average hourly earnings to 4.6%. And unlike last month, when wecorrectly predicted the big miss in August payrolls, this time we agree that tomorrow's report will be a beat, the only question is how big.</p><p><blockquote>在强劲的初始申请失业救济金报告和稳健的 ADP 私人就业数据之后，所有人的目光都转向了本周和本月最重要的经济数据点，即美国东部时间周五上午 8:30 发布的周五非农就业报告，普遍预计将有 50 万人就业，是上个月令人失望的 23.5 万人就业的两倍多，失业率将降至 5.1%，平均时薪将增至 4.6%。与上个月不同，当时我们正确预测了 8 月份就业人数的重大失误，这次我们同意明天的报告将是一个打击，唯一的问题是有多大。</blockquote></p><p> Here is a snapshot of what to expect tomorrow:</p><p><blockquote>以下是明天的快照：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Total Payrolls: 500K, Last 235K</li>  <li>Private Payrolls: 450K, Last 243K</li>  <li>Unemployment Rate: 5.1%, Last 5.2%</li>  <li>Labor force participation rate: 61.8%, Last 61.7%</li>  <li>Average Hourly Earnings Y/Y: 4.6%, Last 4.3%</li>  <li>Average Weekly Hours: 34.7, Last 34.7</li> </ul> As&nbsp;Newsquawk&nbsp;writes in its NFP preview, September’s jobs data, the last before the Fed’s November 3rd policy meeting, will be framed in the context of the central bank’s expected taper announcement, where a merely satisfactory report would likely to be enough for the FOMC to greenlight a November announcement to scale-back its USD 120BN/month asset purchases.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>总就业人数：50万，最后23.5万</li><li>私人就业人数：45万，最后24.3万</li><li>失业率：5.1%，去年5.2%</li><li>劳动力参与率：61.8%，去年61.7%</li><li>平均每小时收益同比：4.6%，去年 4.3%</li><li>平均每周小时数：34.7，最近34.7</li></ul>正如 Newsquawk 在其 NFP 预览中所写的那样，9 月份的就业数据是美联储 11 月 3 日政策会议前的最后一份数据，它将以美联储预期宣布缩减规模为背景，而一份令人满意的报告可能就足以让联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 在 11 月份宣布缩减每月 1200 亿美元的资产购买规模。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman economists are more bullish than normal, and estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 600k in September, above consensus of +500k, and they note that \"labor demand remains very strong,&nbsp;<b>and we believe the nationwide expiration of enhanced unemployment beneﬁts on September 5 boosted effective labor supply and job growth—as it did in July and August in states that ended federal beneﬁts early.\"</b>As a result, Goldman is assuming a 200k boost in tomorrow’s numbers and a larger boost in October. The bank also believes the reopening of schools contributed to September job growth, by around 150k. Despite these tailwinds, Big Data employment signals were mixed, and dining activity rebounded only marginally.</p><p><blockquote>高盛经济学家比正常情况更加乐观，估计 9 月份非农就业人数增加 60 万人，高于 +50 万人的共识，他们指出“劳动力需求仍然非常强劲，<b>我们相信，9 月 5 日全国范围内增加的失业救济金到期促进了有效劳动力供应和就业增长——就像 7 月和 8 月提前结束联邦福利的州所做的那样。”</b>因此，高盛预计明天的数字将增加 20 万，10 月份的数字将增加更多。该银行还认为，学校的重新开放促进了9月份就业岗位的增长，增加了约15万个。尽管有这些有利因素，大数据就业信号好坏参半，餐饮活动仅小幅反弹。</blockquote></p><p> Labor market proxies have been constructive for the month: ADP’s gauge of payrolls surprised to the upside, although analysts continue to note that the direct relationship between the official data and the ADP’s gauge is tenuous, despite the gap being under 100k over the last three reports. The number of initial jobless claims and continuing claims has eased back between the survey periods of the August and September jobs data, although analysts note that more recent releases have shown an uptick in claims potentially clouding the outlook. The ISM business surveys have signaled employment growth in the month, with manufacturing employment rising into growth territory again, but services sector hiring cooled a little in the month, but remains expansionary; survey commentary continues to allude to a tight labour market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September employment situation report at 13:30BST/08:30EDT on October 8th.</p><p><blockquote>本月劳动力市场指标具有建设性： 尽管分析师们继续指出，官方数据与 ADP 指标之间的直接关系很脆弱，但在过去三份报告中，官方数据与 ADP 指标之间的直接关系很脆弱。在 8 月至 9 月就业数据调查期间，首次申请失业救济人数和持续申请失业救济人数有所回落，尽管分析师指出，最近公布的数据显示申请失业救济人数上升，这可能会给前景蒙上阴影。ISM商业调查显示本月就业增长，制造业就业再次进入增长区域，但服务业招聘本月略有降温，但仍保持扩张性；调查评论继续暗示劳动力市场紧张。美国劳工统计局将于10月8日英国夏令时13:30/美国东部时间08:30发布9月份就业形势报告。</blockquote></p><p> <b>POLICY</b>: The September jobs report might have reduced relevance on trading conditions given that Fed officials have effectively confirmed that, barring a collapse in the jobs data, it is on course to announce a tapering of its asset purchases at the November 3rd meeting. Accordingly, trading risks may be skewed to the downside, rather than to the upside, where a significant payrolls miss may present obstacles to the Fed announcing its taper. Additionally, it is worth being cognizant of how efforts in Washington to raise the debt ceiling are progressing; as yet, officials have not struck a deal, and are in the process of enacting stop gap legislation to allow funding into December; some analysts suggest that the Fed may be reticent to tighten policy in the face of potential default risks.</p><p><blockquote><b>政策</b>：鉴于美联储官员已有效确认，除非就业数据暴跌，否则美联储将在 11 月 3 日的会议上宣布缩减资产购买规模，因此 9 月份就业报告可能会降低其对交易条件的相关性。因此，交易风险可能会向下行倾斜，而不是向上行倾斜，因为就业数据的大幅下降可能会给美联储宣布缩减规模带来障碍。此外，值得认识到华盛顿提高债务上限的努力是如何取得进展的；到目前为止，官员们尚未达成协议，并正在制定权宜之计立法，以允许在 12 月之前提供资金；有分析师暗示，面对潜在的违约风险，美联储可能不愿收紧政策。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PAYROLLS:</b>The consensus looks for 500k nonfarm payrolls to be added to the US economy in September (prev. 235k), which would be a cooler rate of growth than the three- and six-month average rate, though in line with the 12-month average (3-month average is 750k/month, the six-month average is 653k/month, and the 12-month average is 503k/month – that technically at least suggests an improving rate of payrolls growth in recent months).<b>Aggregating the nonfarm payrolls data since March 2020, around 5.33mln Americans remain out of work relative to pre-pandemic levels.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>工资单：</b>共识预计9月份美国经济将增加50万非农就业人数（上一篇。23.5万），这将是一个比三个月和六个月平均增长率更冷的增长率，尽管与12个月的平均水平一致（3个月平均水平为75万/月，6个月平均水平为65.3万/月，12个月平均水平为50.3万/月——从技术上讲，这至少表明最近几个月的就业增长率有所提高）。<b>汇总2020年3月以来的非农就业数据，相对于大流行前的水平，约有533万美国人仍然失业。</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>MEASURES OF SLACK:</b>The Unemployment Rate is expected at 5.1% (prev. 5.2%); Labour Force Participation previously at 61.7% vs 63.2% pre-pandemic; U6 measure of underemployment was previously at 8.8% vs 7.0% prepandemic; Employment-population ratio was previously 58.5% vs 61.1% pre-pandemic. These measures of slack are likely to provide more insight into how Fed officials are judging labour market progress, with many in recent months noting that they are closely watching the Underemployment Rate, Participation Rate, and the Employment-Population Ratio for a better handle on the level of slack that remains in the economy. Analysts would be encouraged the closer these get to pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>松弛的度量：</b>失业率预计为5.1%（之前为5.2%）；劳动力参与率此前为61.7%，而大流行前为63.2%；U6 就业不足指标此前为 8.8%，而大流行前为 7.0%；就业人口比率此前为58.5%，而疫情前为61.1%。这些松弛的衡量标准可能会让人们更深入地了解美联储官员如何判断劳动力市场的进展，近几个月来，许多官员指出，他们正在密切关注就业不足率、参与率和就业与人口比率，以更好地处理经济中仍然存在的松弛程度。分析师们会受到鼓舞，因为这些数字越接近大流行前的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>EARNINGS:</b>Average Hourly Earnings expected at +0.4% M/M (prev. +0.6%); Average Hourly Earnings expected at +4. 6% Y/Y (prev. +4.3%); Average Workweek Hours expected at 34.7hrs (prev. 34.7hrs). Aggregating the nonfarm payrolls data since March 2020, around 5.33mln Americans still remain out of work relative to pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>收益：</b>平均每小时收益预计为 +0.4%（之前为 +0.6%）；平均小时收益预计同比+4.6%（前值+4.3%）；平均每周工作时间预计为34.7小时（以前。34.7小时）.汇总2020年3月以来的非农就业数据，相对于大流行前的水平，约有533万美国人仍然失业。</blockquote></p><p> <b>ADP:</b>The ADP National Employment Report showed 568k jobs added to the US economy in September, topping expectations for 428k, and a better pace than the prior 340k (revised down from 374k initially reported). ADP itself said that the labor market recovery continued to make progress despite the marked slowdown in the rate of job additions from the 748k pace seen in Q2. It also noted that Leisure &amp; Hospitality remained one of the biggest beneficiaries to the recovery, though said that hiring was still heavily impacted by the trajectory of the pandemic, especially for small firms. ADP thinks that the current bottlenecks in hiring will likely fade as the pandemic situation continues to improve, and that could set the stage for solid job gains in the months ahead. On the data methodology, analysts continue to note that ADP's model incorporates much of the prior official payrolls data, other macroeconomic variables, as well as data from its own payrolls platform; \"Payrolls were soft in August, thanks to the hit to the services sector from the Delta variant, and that weakness likely constrained ADP data,\" Pantheon Macroeconomics said. \"The overshoot to consensus, therefore, suggests that the other inputs to ADP’s model were stronger than we expected, but none of the details are published, so we don’t know if the overshoot was model-driven or due to stronger employment data at ADP’s clients.\"</p><p><blockquote><b>ADP：</b>ADP全国就业报告显示，9月份美国经济新增就业岗位56.8万个，高于预期的42.8万个，增速好于之前的34万个（从最初报告的37.4万个下调）。ADP本身表示，尽管第二季度的74.8万个工作岗位增加速度明显放缓，但劳动力市场复苏继续取得进展。它还指出，休闲和酒店业仍然是复苏的最大受益者之一，尽管表示招聘仍然受到疫情轨迹的严重影响，特别是对小公司而言。ADP认为，随着疫情形势的持续改善，当前的招聘瓶颈可能会消失，这可能会为未来几个月的稳健就业增长创造条件。在数据方法方面，分析师继续指出，ADP的模型纳入了许多以前的官方就业数据、其他宏观经济变量以及来自其自己的就业平台的数据；万神殿宏观经济学表示：“由于德尔塔变异毒株对服务业的打击，8 月份就业人数疲软，这种疲软可能会限制 ADP 数据。”“因此，与共识的超调表明，ADP模型的其他输入比我们预期的要强，但没有公布任何细节，因此我们不知道超调是模型驱动的，还是由于ADP客户的就业数据更强劲”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS:</b>Initial jobless claims data for the week that coincides with the BLS jobs report survey window saw claims at around 351k – little changed from the 349k for the August jobs data survey window – where analysts said seasonal factors played a role in boosting the weekly data, while there may have been some lingering Hurricane Ida effects; the corresponding continuing claims data has fallen to 2.802mln in the September survey period vs 2.908mln in the August survey period. In aggregate, the data continues to point to declining trend, although in recent weeks the level of jobless claims has been picking up again.</p><p><blockquote><b>首次申请失业救济人数：</b>与 BLS 就业报告调查窗口相吻合的一周首次申请失业救济人数约为 35.1 万人，与 8 月份就业数据调查窗口的 34.9 万人几乎没有变化，分析师表示，季节性因素在提振每周数据方面发挥了作用，而可能存在一些挥之不去的飓风艾达的影响；相应的持续索赔数据在9月份调查期间降至280.2万份，而8月份调查期间为290.8万份。总体而言，数据继续指向下降趋势，尽管最近几周申请失业救济人数的水平再次回升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BUSINESS SURVEYS</b>: The Services and Manufacturing ISM reports showed divergent trends in September, with the service sector employment sub-index easing a little to 53.0 from 53.7, signalling growth but at a slower rate, while the manufacturing employment sub-index rose back into expansionary territory, printing 50.2 from 49.0 prior. On the manufacturing sector, ISM said companies were still struggling to meet labour-management plans, but noted some modest signs of progress compared to previous months: \"Less than 5% of comments noted improvements regarding employment, compared to none in August,\" it said, \"an overwhelming majority of panelists indicate their companies are hiring or attempting to hire,\" where around 85% of responses were about seeking additional staffing, while nearly half of the respondents expressed difficulty in filling positions, an increase from August. \"The increasing frequency of comments on turnover rates and retirements continued a trend that began in August,\" ISM said. Meanwhile, in the services sector, employment activity rose for a third straight month; respondents noted that employees were flocking to better-paying jobs and there was a lack of pipeline to replace these staff, while other respondents talked of labor shortages being experienced at all levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>商业调查</b>: 9 月份服务业和制造业 ISM 报告显示了不同的趋势，服务业就业分项指数从 53.7 小幅放缓至 53.0，表明增长，但速度较慢，而制造业就业分项指数回升至扩张区域，从之前的 49.0 升至 50.2。在制造业方面，ISM 表示，企业仍在努力实现劳动力管理计划，但指出与前几个月相比有一些适度的进展迹象：“不到 5% 的评论指出就业有所改善，而 8 月份则没有，”它表示，“绝大多数小组成员表示他们的公司正在招聘或试图招聘，”其中约 85% 的回答是关于寻求额外的员工，而近一半的受访者表示难以填补职位，这一比例较 8 月份有所增加。ISM 表示：“有关离职率和退休的评论越来越频繁，延续了 8 月份开始的趋势。”与此同时，服务业就业活动连续第三个月上升；受访者指出，员工纷纷涌向薪酬更高的工作，缺乏替代这些员工的渠道，而其他受访者则谈到各级都出现了劳动力短缺。</blockquote></p><p> <b>ARGUING FOR A BETTER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT</b>:</p><p><blockquote><b>争取一份好于预期的报告</b>:</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>End of federal enhanced unemployment beneﬁts</b>. The expiration of federal beneﬁts in some states boosted labor supply and job-ﬁnding rates over the summer, and all remaining such programs expired on September 5. The July and August indicated a cumulative 6pp boost to job-ﬁnding probabilities from June to August for workers losing $300 top-up payments and a 12pp boost for workers losing all beneﬁts.<b>Some of the 6mn workers who lost some or all beneﬁts on September 5 got a job by September 18—in time to be counted in tomorrow’s data.</b>Goldman assumes a +200k boost to job growth from this channel, with a larger increase in subsequent reports (+1.3mn cumulatively by year end).</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa8e5900cf66c76d4b64055f84e58048\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>联邦增强失业救济金的终止</b>.一些州的联邦福利到期提高了夏季的劳动力供应和就业率，所有剩余的此类计划都于9月5日到期。7 月和 8 月显示，从 6 月到 8 月，失去 300 美元充值付款的工人的求职概率累计增加了 6 个百分点，失去所有福利的工人的求职概率累计增加了 12 个百分点。<b>9 月 5 日失去部分或全部福利的 600 万工人中，有一些人在 9 月 18 日找到了工作--及时计入明天的数据。</b>高盛假设这一渠道将推动就业增长+20万人，随后的报告将有更大的增长（截至年底累计+130万人）。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>School reopening</b>. The largest 100 school districts are all open for in-person learning, catalyzing the return of many previously furloughed teachers and support staff. While full normalization of employment levels would contribute 600k jobs (mom sa, see left panel of the chart below), some janitors and support staff did not return due to hybrid teaching models, and job openings in the sector are only 200k above the pre-crisis level (see right panel). Relatedly, the BLS’s seasonal factors already embed the usual rehiring of education workers on summer layoff, so if fewer janitors returned to work than in a typical September, this would reduce seasonally adjusted job growth, other things equal. Taken together, assume a roughly 150k boost from the reopening of schools in tomorrow’s report.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff3e69723b40e0d372ec2bebecb38b1f\" tg-width=\"799\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>学校复课</b>最大的100个学区都开放面对面学习，促使许多以前休假的教师和辅助人员重返校园。虽然就业水平的完全正常化将提供60万个工作岗位（mom sa，见下图左图），但由于混合教学模式，一些看门人和辅助人员没有返回，该部门的职位空缺仅比危机前的水平高出20万个（见右图）。与此相关的是，在其他条件相同的情况下，劳工统计局的季节性因素已经包含了教育工作者通常在夏季裁员时重新招聘的情况，因此，如果重返工作岗位的清洁工少于典型的 9 月份，这将降低经季节性调整后的就业增长。综合来看，在明天的报告中，学校重新开放将带来大约 15 万人的增长。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Job availability</b>. The Conference Board labor differential—the difference between the percent of respondents saying jobs are plentiful and those saying jobs are hardto get - edged down to 42.5 from 44.4, still an elevated level. Additionally, JOLTS job openings increased by 749k in July to a new record high of 10.9mn.</li>  <li><b>ADP.</b>Private sector employment in the ADP report increased by 568k in September, above consensus expectations for a 430k gain, implying strong growth in the underlying ADP sample. Additionally, schools generally do not use ADP payroll software, arguing for a larger gain from school reopening in the official payroll measure.</li> </ul> <b>ARGUING FOR A WEAKER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT:</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>工作可用性</b>世界大型企业联合会劳动力差异——认为工作机会充足的受访者和认为工作机会很难找到的受访者之间的差异——从44.4%降至42.5%，仍然是一个较高的水平。此外，JOLTS 7月份职位空缺增加了74.9万个，达到1090万个的新高。</li><li><b>ADP。</b>ADP报告中的私营部门就业人数在9月份增加了56.8万人，高于市场普遍预期的43万人，这意味着基础ADP样本的强劲增长。此外，学校通常不使用ADP工资软件，认为在官方工资衡量标准中，学校重新开放会带来更大的收益。</li></ul><b>主张报告弱于预期：</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Delta variant.</b>Rebounding covid infection rates weighed on services consumption and the labor market in August. And while US case counts began to decline in early September, restaurant seatings on Open Table rebounded only marginally. leisure and hospitality employment rose in September, but probably not at the ~400k monthly pace of June and July.</li>  <li><b>Employer surveys</b>. The employment components of our business surveys were flat to down, whereas we and consensus forecast a pickup in job growth. Goldman's services survey employment tracker remained unchanged at 54.5 and the manufacturing survey employment tracker declined 0.4pt to 57.8. And while the Goldman Sachs Analyst Index (GSAI) decreased 0.8% to 68.5, the employment component rose1.9% to 71.9.</li> </ul> <b>NEUTRAL FACTORS:</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>德尔塔变异毒株.</b>8 月份新冠感染率反弹给服务消费和劳动力市场带来压力。虽然美国病例数在9月初开始下降，但开放餐桌的餐厅座位仅略有反弹。9 月份休闲和酒店业就业人数有所增长，但可能不会达到 6 月和 7 月每月约 40 万人的增长速度。</li><li><b>雇主调查</b>我们的商业调查中的就业组成部分持平或下降，而我们和共识预测就业增长将回升。高盛服务业调查就业跟踪指数保持在 54.5 不变，制造业调查就业跟踪指数下降 0.4 个百分点至 57.8。高盛分析师指数 (GSAI) 下降 0.8% 至 68.5，而就业成分上升 1.9% 至 71.9。</li></ul><b>中性因素：</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Big Data.</b>High-frequency data on the labor market were mixed between the August and September survey weeks, on net providing little guidance about the underlying pace of job growth. Three of the five measures tracked indicate an at-or-above-consensus gain (Census Small Business Pulse +0.5mn, ADP +0.6mn,Google mobility +2mn), but the Homebase data was an outlier to the downside. At face value, it would indicate a large outright decline in payrolls. The Census Household Pulse (-0.6mn) was also quite weak, though encouragingly, it also indicated a large drop in childcare-related labor supply headwinds as schools reopened.</li>  <li><b>Seasonality.</b>The September seasonal hurdle is relatively low: the BLS adjustment factors generally assume a 600-700k decline in private payrolls (which exclude public schools), compared to around -100k on average in July and August. Continued labor shortages encouraged firms to lay off fewer workers at the end of summer. Partially offsetting this tailwind, the September seasonal factors may have evolved unfavorably due to the crisis—specifically by fitting to last September’s reopening-driven job surge (private payrolls +932k mom sa).</li>  <li><b>Jobless claims.</b>Initial jobless claims fell during the September payroll month, averaging 339k per week vs. 378k in August despite a boost from individuals transitioning or attempting to transition to state programs. Across all employee programs including emergency benefits, continuing claims fell dramatically (-3.3mn)–but again for non-economic reasons (federal enhanced programs expired). Continuing claims in regular state programs decreased 106k from survey week to survey week.</li>  <li><b>Job cuts.</b>Announced layoffs reported by Challenger, Gray &amp; Christmas rebounded 11% month-over-month in September after decreasing by 14% over the prior two months (SA by GS). Nonetheless, layoffs remain near the three-decade low on this measure (in 1993).</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>大数据。</b>8 月至 9 月调查周期间，劳动力市场的高频数据好坏参半，对就业增长的基本速度几乎没有提供指导。跟踪的五项指标中有三项显示增幅达到或高于共识（人口普查小企业脉冲+50万，ADP+60万，谷歌移动+200万），但Homebase数据是下行的异常值。从表面上看，这将表明就业人数大幅下降。人口普查家庭脉搏（-60万）也相当疲软，尽管令人鼓舞，但它也表明随着学校重新开放，与儿童保育相关的劳动力供应逆风大幅下降。</li><li><b>季节性。</b>9月份的季节性障碍相对较低：BLS调整因素通常假设私人就业人数（不包括公立学校）下降60-70万人，而7月和8月的平均就业人数约为-10万人。持续的劳动力短缺鼓励企业在夏季结束时减少裁员。9 月份的季节性因素可能因危机而发生了不利的演变，这在一定程度上抵消了这一推动力--特别是与去年 9 月份重新开放推动的就业激增相吻合（私人就业人数 +93.2 万 mom sa）。</li><li><b>申请失业救济金。</b>尽管个人过渡到或试图过渡到国家计划，但9月份的首次申请失业救济人数有所上升，平均每周为33.9万人，而8月份为37.8万人。在包括紧急福利在内的所有员工计划中，持续索赔大幅下降（-330万）——但同样是因为非经济原因（联邦增强型计划到期）。从调查周到调查周，常规州项目的持续申请减少了10.6万人。</li><li><b>裁员。</b>Challenger、Gray &amp; Christmas 报告的宣布裁员人数在前两个月下降 14% 后，9 月份环比反弹 11%（SA by GS）。尽管如此，这一指标的裁员仍接近三十年来的最低点（1993 年）。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>September Payrolls Preview: It Will Be A Beat, The Question Is How Big<blockquote>9 月份就业预览：这将是一个节拍，问题是有多大</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSeptember Payrolls Preview: It Will Be A Beat, The Question Is How Big<blockquote>9 月份就业预览：这将是一个节拍，问题是有多大</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-08 14:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>After a strong initial claims report and a solid ADP private payrolls print, all eyes turn to the most important economic data point of the week, and the month, Friday's nonfarm payrolls report due at 830am ET on Friday, where consensus expects a 500K print- more than double last month's disappointing 235K print - as well as a drop in the unemployment rate to 5.1% and an increase in average hourly earnings to 4.6%. And unlike last month, when wecorrectly predicted the big miss in August payrolls, this time we agree that tomorrow's report will be a beat, the only question is how big.</p><p><blockquote>在强劲的初始申请失业救济金报告和稳健的 ADP 私人就业数据之后，所有人的目光都转向了本周和本月最重要的经济数据点，即美国东部时间周五上午 8:30 发布的周五非农就业报告，普遍预计将有 50 万人就业，是上个月令人失望的 23.5 万人就业的两倍多，失业率将降至 5.1%，平均时薪将增至 4.6%。与上个月不同，当时我们正确预测了 8 月份就业人数的重大失误，这次我们同意明天的报告将是一个打击，唯一的问题是有多大。</blockquote></p><p> Here is a snapshot of what to expect tomorrow:</p><p><blockquote>以下是明天的快照：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Total Payrolls: 500K, Last 235K</li>  <li>Private Payrolls: 450K, Last 243K</li>  <li>Unemployment Rate: 5.1%, Last 5.2%</li>  <li>Labor force participation rate: 61.8%, Last 61.7%</li>  <li>Average Hourly Earnings Y/Y: 4.6%, Last 4.3%</li>  <li>Average Weekly Hours: 34.7, Last 34.7</li> </ul> As&nbsp;Newsquawk&nbsp;writes in its NFP preview, September’s jobs data, the last before the Fed’s November 3rd policy meeting, will be framed in the context of the central bank’s expected taper announcement, where a merely satisfactory report would likely to be enough for the FOMC to greenlight a November announcement to scale-back its USD 120BN/month asset purchases.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>总就业人数：50万，最后23.5万</li><li>私人就业人数：45万，最后24.3万</li><li>失业率：5.1%，去年5.2%</li><li>劳动力参与率：61.8%，去年61.7%</li><li>平均每小时收益同比：4.6%，去年 4.3%</li><li>平均每周小时数：34.7，最近34.7</li></ul>正如 Newsquawk 在其 NFP 预览中所写的那样，9 月份的就业数据是美联储 11 月 3 日政策会议前的最后一份数据，它将以美联储预期宣布缩减规模为背景，而一份令人满意的报告可能就足以让联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 在 11 月份宣布缩减每月 1200 亿美元的资产购买规模。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman economists are more bullish than normal, and estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 600k in September, above consensus of +500k, and they note that \"labor demand remains very strong,&nbsp;<b>and we believe the nationwide expiration of enhanced unemployment beneﬁts on September 5 boosted effective labor supply and job growth—as it did in July and August in states that ended federal beneﬁts early.\"</b>As a result, Goldman is assuming a 200k boost in tomorrow’s numbers and a larger boost in October. The bank also believes the reopening of schools contributed to September job growth, by around 150k. Despite these tailwinds, Big Data employment signals were mixed, and dining activity rebounded only marginally.</p><p><blockquote>高盛经济学家比正常情况更加乐观，估计 9 月份非农就业人数增加 60 万人，高于 +50 万人的共识，他们指出“劳动力需求仍然非常强劲，<b>我们相信，9 月 5 日全国范围内增加的失业救济金到期促进了有效劳动力供应和就业增长——就像 7 月和 8 月提前结束联邦福利的州所做的那样。”</b>因此，高盛预计明天的数字将增加 20 万，10 月份的数字将增加更多。该银行还认为，学校的重新开放促进了9月份就业岗位的增长，增加了约15万个。尽管有这些有利因素，大数据就业信号好坏参半，餐饮活动仅小幅反弹。</blockquote></p><p> Labor market proxies have been constructive for the month: ADP’s gauge of payrolls surprised to the upside, although analysts continue to note that the direct relationship between the official data and the ADP’s gauge is tenuous, despite the gap being under 100k over the last three reports. The number of initial jobless claims and continuing claims has eased back between the survey periods of the August and September jobs data, although analysts note that more recent releases have shown an uptick in claims potentially clouding the outlook. The ISM business surveys have signaled employment growth in the month, with manufacturing employment rising into growth territory again, but services sector hiring cooled a little in the month, but remains expansionary; survey commentary continues to allude to a tight labour market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September employment situation report at 13:30BST/08:30EDT on October 8th.</p><p><blockquote>本月劳动力市场指标具有建设性： 尽管分析师们继续指出，官方数据与 ADP 指标之间的直接关系很脆弱，但在过去三份报告中，官方数据与 ADP 指标之间的直接关系很脆弱。在 8 月至 9 月就业数据调查期间，首次申请失业救济人数和持续申请失业救济人数有所回落，尽管分析师指出，最近公布的数据显示申请失业救济人数上升，这可能会给前景蒙上阴影。ISM商业调查显示本月就业增长，制造业就业再次进入增长区域，但服务业招聘本月略有降温，但仍保持扩张性；调查评论继续暗示劳动力市场紧张。美国劳工统计局将于10月8日英国夏令时13:30/美国东部时间08:30发布9月份就业形势报告。</blockquote></p><p> <b>POLICY</b>: The September jobs report might have reduced relevance on trading conditions given that Fed officials have effectively confirmed that, barring a collapse in the jobs data, it is on course to announce a tapering of its asset purchases at the November 3rd meeting. Accordingly, trading risks may be skewed to the downside, rather than to the upside, where a significant payrolls miss may present obstacles to the Fed announcing its taper. Additionally, it is worth being cognizant of how efforts in Washington to raise the debt ceiling are progressing; as yet, officials have not struck a deal, and are in the process of enacting stop gap legislation to allow funding into December; some analysts suggest that the Fed may be reticent to tighten policy in the face of potential default risks.</p><p><blockquote><b>政策</b>：鉴于美联储官员已有效确认，除非就业数据暴跌，否则美联储将在 11 月 3 日的会议上宣布缩减资产购买规模，因此 9 月份就业报告可能会降低其对交易条件的相关性。因此，交易风险可能会向下行倾斜，而不是向上行倾斜，因为就业数据的大幅下降可能会给美联储宣布缩减规模带来障碍。此外，值得认识到华盛顿提高债务上限的努力是如何取得进展的；到目前为止，官员们尚未达成协议，并正在制定权宜之计立法，以允许在 12 月之前提供资金；有分析师暗示，面对潜在的违约风险，美联储可能不愿收紧政策。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PAYROLLS:</b>The consensus looks for 500k nonfarm payrolls to be added to the US economy in September (prev. 235k), which would be a cooler rate of growth than the three- and six-month average rate, though in line with the 12-month average (3-month average is 750k/month, the six-month average is 653k/month, and the 12-month average is 503k/month – that technically at least suggests an improving rate of payrolls growth in recent months).<b>Aggregating the nonfarm payrolls data since March 2020, around 5.33mln Americans remain out of work relative to pre-pandemic levels.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>工资单：</b>共识预计9月份美国经济将增加50万非农就业人数（上一篇。23.5万），这将是一个比三个月和六个月平均增长率更冷的增长率，尽管与12个月的平均水平一致（3个月平均水平为75万/月，6个月平均水平为65.3万/月，12个月平均水平为50.3万/月——从技术上讲，这至少表明最近几个月的就业增长率有所提高）。<b>汇总2020年3月以来的非农就业数据，相对于大流行前的水平，约有533万美国人仍然失业。</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>MEASURES OF SLACK:</b>The Unemployment Rate is expected at 5.1% (prev. 5.2%); Labour Force Participation previously at 61.7% vs 63.2% pre-pandemic; U6 measure of underemployment was previously at 8.8% vs 7.0% prepandemic; Employment-population ratio was previously 58.5% vs 61.1% pre-pandemic. These measures of slack are likely to provide more insight into how Fed officials are judging labour market progress, with many in recent months noting that they are closely watching the Underemployment Rate, Participation Rate, and the Employment-Population Ratio for a better handle on the level of slack that remains in the economy. Analysts would be encouraged the closer these get to pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>松弛的度量：</b>失业率预计为5.1%（之前为5.2%）；劳动力参与率此前为61.7%，而大流行前为63.2%；U6 就业不足指标此前为 8.8%，而大流行前为 7.0%；就业人口比率此前为58.5%，而疫情前为61.1%。这些松弛的衡量标准可能会让人们更深入地了解美联储官员如何判断劳动力市场的进展，近几个月来，许多官员指出，他们正在密切关注就业不足率、参与率和就业与人口比率，以更好地处理经济中仍然存在的松弛程度。分析师们会受到鼓舞，因为这些数字越接近大流行前的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>EARNINGS:</b>Average Hourly Earnings expected at +0.4% M/M (prev. +0.6%); Average Hourly Earnings expected at +4. 6% Y/Y (prev. +4.3%); Average Workweek Hours expected at 34.7hrs (prev. 34.7hrs). Aggregating the nonfarm payrolls data since March 2020, around 5.33mln Americans still remain out of work relative to pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>收益：</b>平均每小时收益预计为 +0.4%（之前为 +0.6%）；平均小时收益预计同比+4.6%（前值+4.3%）；平均每周工作时间预计为34.7小时（以前。34.7小时）.汇总2020年3月以来的非农就业数据，相对于大流行前的水平，约有533万美国人仍然失业。</blockquote></p><p> <b>ADP:</b>The ADP National Employment Report showed 568k jobs added to the US economy in September, topping expectations for 428k, and a better pace than the prior 340k (revised down from 374k initially reported). ADP itself said that the labor market recovery continued to make progress despite the marked slowdown in the rate of job additions from the 748k pace seen in Q2. It also noted that Leisure &amp; Hospitality remained one of the biggest beneficiaries to the recovery, though said that hiring was still heavily impacted by the trajectory of the pandemic, especially for small firms. ADP thinks that the current bottlenecks in hiring will likely fade as the pandemic situation continues to improve, and that could set the stage for solid job gains in the months ahead. On the data methodology, analysts continue to note that ADP's model incorporates much of the prior official payrolls data, other macroeconomic variables, as well as data from its own payrolls platform; \"Payrolls were soft in August, thanks to the hit to the services sector from the Delta variant, and that weakness likely constrained ADP data,\" Pantheon Macroeconomics said. \"The overshoot to consensus, therefore, suggests that the other inputs to ADP’s model were stronger than we expected, but none of the details are published, so we don’t know if the overshoot was model-driven or due to stronger employment data at ADP’s clients.\"</p><p><blockquote><b>ADP：</b>ADP全国就业报告显示，9月份美国经济新增就业岗位56.8万个，高于预期的42.8万个，增速好于之前的34万个（从最初报告的37.4万个下调）。ADP本身表示，尽管第二季度的74.8万个工作岗位增加速度明显放缓，但劳动力市场复苏继续取得进展。它还指出，休闲和酒店业仍然是复苏的最大受益者之一，尽管表示招聘仍然受到疫情轨迹的严重影响，特别是对小公司而言。ADP认为，随着疫情形势的持续改善，当前的招聘瓶颈可能会消失，这可能会为未来几个月的稳健就业增长创造条件。在数据方法方面，分析师继续指出，ADP的模型纳入了许多以前的官方就业数据、其他宏观经济变量以及来自其自己的就业平台的数据；万神殿宏观经济学表示：“由于德尔塔变异毒株对服务业的打击，8 月份就业人数疲软，这种疲软可能会限制 ADP 数据。”“因此，与共识的超调表明，ADP模型的其他输入比我们预期的要强，但没有公布任何细节，因此我们不知道超调是模型驱动的，还是由于ADP客户的就业数据更强劲”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS:</b>Initial jobless claims data for the week that coincides with the BLS jobs report survey window saw claims at around 351k – little changed from the 349k for the August jobs data survey window – where analysts said seasonal factors played a role in boosting the weekly data, while there may have been some lingering Hurricane Ida effects; the corresponding continuing claims data has fallen to 2.802mln in the September survey period vs 2.908mln in the August survey period. In aggregate, the data continues to point to declining trend, although in recent weeks the level of jobless claims has been picking up again.</p><p><blockquote><b>首次申请失业救济人数：</b>与 BLS 就业报告调查窗口相吻合的一周首次申请失业救济人数约为 35.1 万人，与 8 月份就业数据调查窗口的 34.9 万人几乎没有变化，分析师表示，季节性因素在提振每周数据方面发挥了作用，而可能存在一些挥之不去的飓风艾达的影响；相应的持续索赔数据在9月份调查期间降至280.2万份，而8月份调查期间为290.8万份。总体而言，数据继续指向下降趋势，尽管最近几周申请失业救济人数的水平再次回升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BUSINESS SURVEYS</b>: The Services and Manufacturing ISM reports showed divergent trends in September, with the service sector employment sub-index easing a little to 53.0 from 53.7, signalling growth but at a slower rate, while the manufacturing employment sub-index rose back into expansionary territory, printing 50.2 from 49.0 prior. On the manufacturing sector, ISM said companies were still struggling to meet labour-management plans, but noted some modest signs of progress compared to previous months: \"Less than 5% of comments noted improvements regarding employment, compared to none in August,\" it said, \"an overwhelming majority of panelists indicate their companies are hiring or attempting to hire,\" where around 85% of responses were about seeking additional staffing, while nearly half of the respondents expressed difficulty in filling positions, an increase from August. \"The increasing frequency of comments on turnover rates and retirements continued a trend that began in August,\" ISM said. Meanwhile, in the services sector, employment activity rose for a third straight month; respondents noted that employees were flocking to better-paying jobs and there was a lack of pipeline to replace these staff, while other respondents talked of labor shortages being experienced at all levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>商业调查</b>: 9 月份服务业和制造业 ISM 报告显示了不同的趋势，服务业就业分项指数从 53.7 小幅放缓至 53.0，表明增长，但速度较慢，而制造业就业分项指数回升至扩张区域，从之前的 49.0 升至 50.2。在制造业方面，ISM 表示，企业仍在努力实现劳动力管理计划，但指出与前几个月相比有一些适度的进展迹象：“不到 5% 的评论指出就业有所改善，而 8 月份则没有，”它表示，“绝大多数小组成员表示他们的公司正在招聘或试图招聘，”其中约 85% 的回答是关于寻求额外的员工，而近一半的受访者表示难以填补职位，这一比例较 8 月份有所增加。ISM 表示：“有关离职率和退休的评论越来越频繁，延续了 8 月份开始的趋势。”与此同时，服务业就业活动连续第三个月上升；受访者指出，员工纷纷涌向薪酬更高的工作，缺乏替代这些员工的渠道，而其他受访者则谈到各级都出现了劳动力短缺。</blockquote></p><p> <b>ARGUING FOR A BETTER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT</b>:</p><p><blockquote><b>争取一份好于预期的报告</b>:</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>End of federal enhanced unemployment beneﬁts</b>. The expiration of federal beneﬁts in some states boosted labor supply and job-ﬁnding rates over the summer, and all remaining such programs expired on September 5. The July and August indicated a cumulative 6pp boost to job-ﬁnding probabilities from June to August for workers losing $300 top-up payments and a 12pp boost for workers losing all beneﬁts.<b>Some of the 6mn workers who lost some or all beneﬁts on September 5 got a job by September 18—in time to be counted in tomorrow’s data.</b>Goldman assumes a +200k boost to job growth from this channel, with a larger increase in subsequent reports (+1.3mn cumulatively by year end).</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa8e5900cf66c76d4b64055f84e58048\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>联邦增强失业救济金的终止</b>.一些州的联邦福利到期提高了夏季的劳动力供应和就业率，所有剩余的此类计划都于9月5日到期。7 月和 8 月显示，从 6 月到 8 月，失去 300 美元充值付款的工人的求职概率累计增加了 6 个百分点，失去所有福利的工人的求职概率累计增加了 12 个百分点。<b>9 月 5 日失去部分或全部福利的 600 万工人中，有一些人在 9 月 18 日找到了工作--及时计入明天的数据。</b>高盛假设这一渠道将推动就业增长+20万人，随后的报告将有更大的增长（截至年底累计+130万人）。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>School reopening</b>. The largest 100 school districts are all open for in-person learning, catalyzing the return of many previously furloughed teachers and support staff. While full normalization of employment levels would contribute 600k jobs (mom sa, see left panel of the chart below), some janitors and support staff did not return due to hybrid teaching models, and job openings in the sector are only 200k above the pre-crisis level (see right panel). Relatedly, the BLS’s seasonal factors already embed the usual rehiring of education workers on summer layoff, so if fewer janitors returned to work than in a typical September, this would reduce seasonally adjusted job growth, other things equal. Taken together, assume a roughly 150k boost from the reopening of schools in tomorrow’s report.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff3e69723b40e0d372ec2bebecb38b1f\" tg-width=\"799\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>学校复课</b>最大的100个学区都开放面对面学习，促使许多以前休假的教师和辅助人员重返校园。虽然就业水平的完全正常化将提供60万个工作岗位（mom sa，见下图左图），但由于混合教学模式，一些看门人和辅助人员没有返回，该部门的职位空缺仅比危机前的水平高出20万个（见右图）。与此相关的是，在其他条件相同的情况下，劳工统计局的季节性因素已经包含了教育工作者通常在夏季裁员时重新招聘的情况，因此，如果重返工作岗位的清洁工少于典型的 9 月份，这将降低经季节性调整后的就业增长。综合来看，在明天的报告中，学校重新开放将带来大约 15 万人的增长。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Job availability</b>. The Conference Board labor differential—the difference between the percent of respondents saying jobs are plentiful and those saying jobs are hardto get - edged down to 42.5 from 44.4, still an elevated level. Additionally, JOLTS job openings increased by 749k in July to a new record high of 10.9mn.</li>  <li><b>ADP.</b>Private sector employment in the ADP report increased by 568k in September, above consensus expectations for a 430k gain, implying strong growth in the underlying ADP sample. Additionally, schools generally do not use ADP payroll software, arguing for a larger gain from school reopening in the official payroll measure.</li> </ul> <b>ARGUING FOR A WEAKER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT:</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>工作可用性</b>世界大型企业联合会劳动力差异——认为工作机会充足的受访者和认为工作机会很难找到的受访者之间的差异——从44.4%降至42.5%，仍然是一个较高的水平。此外，JOLTS 7月份职位空缺增加了74.9万个，达到1090万个的新高。</li><li><b>ADP。</b>ADP报告中的私营部门就业人数在9月份增加了56.8万人，高于市场普遍预期的43万人，这意味着基础ADP样本的强劲增长。此外，学校通常不使用ADP工资软件，认为在官方工资衡量标准中，学校重新开放会带来更大的收益。</li></ul><b>主张报告弱于预期：</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Delta variant.</b>Rebounding covid infection rates weighed on services consumption and the labor market in August. And while US case counts began to decline in early September, restaurant seatings on Open Table rebounded only marginally. leisure and hospitality employment rose in September, but probably not at the ~400k monthly pace of June and July.</li>  <li><b>Employer surveys</b>. The employment components of our business surveys were flat to down, whereas we and consensus forecast a pickup in job growth. Goldman's services survey employment tracker remained unchanged at 54.5 and the manufacturing survey employment tracker declined 0.4pt to 57.8. And while the Goldman Sachs Analyst Index (GSAI) decreased 0.8% to 68.5, the employment component rose1.9% to 71.9.</li> </ul> <b>NEUTRAL FACTORS:</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>德尔塔变异毒株.</b>8 月份新冠感染率反弹给服务消费和劳动力市场带来压力。虽然美国病例数在9月初开始下降，但开放餐桌的餐厅座位仅略有反弹。9 月份休闲和酒店业就业人数有所增长，但可能不会达到 6 月和 7 月每月约 40 万人的增长速度。</li><li><b>雇主调查</b>我们的商业调查中的就业组成部分持平或下降，而我们和共识预测就业增长将回升。高盛服务业调查就业跟踪指数保持在 54.5 不变，制造业调查就业跟踪指数下降 0.4 个百分点至 57.8。高盛分析师指数 (GSAI) 下降 0.8% 至 68.5，而就业成分上升 1.9% 至 71.9。</li></ul><b>中性因素：</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Big Data.</b>High-frequency data on the labor market were mixed between the August and September survey weeks, on net providing little guidance about the underlying pace of job growth. Three of the five measures tracked indicate an at-or-above-consensus gain (Census Small Business Pulse +0.5mn, ADP +0.6mn,Google mobility +2mn), but the Homebase data was an outlier to the downside. At face value, it would indicate a large outright decline in payrolls. The Census Household Pulse (-0.6mn) was also quite weak, though encouragingly, it also indicated a large drop in childcare-related labor supply headwinds as schools reopened.</li>  <li><b>Seasonality.</b>The September seasonal hurdle is relatively low: the BLS adjustment factors generally assume a 600-700k decline in private payrolls (which exclude public schools), compared to around -100k on average in July and August. Continued labor shortages encouraged firms to lay off fewer workers at the end of summer. Partially offsetting this tailwind, the September seasonal factors may have evolved unfavorably due to the crisis—specifically by fitting to last September’s reopening-driven job surge (private payrolls +932k mom sa).</li>  <li><b>Jobless claims.</b>Initial jobless claims fell during the September payroll month, averaging 339k per week vs. 378k in August despite a boost from individuals transitioning or attempting to transition to state programs. Across all employee programs including emergency benefits, continuing claims fell dramatically (-3.3mn)–but again for non-economic reasons (federal enhanced programs expired). Continuing claims in regular state programs decreased 106k from survey week to survey week.</li>  <li><b>Job cuts.</b>Announced layoffs reported by Challenger, Gray &amp; Christmas rebounded 11% month-over-month in September after decreasing by 14% over the prior two months (SA by GS). Nonetheless, layoffs remain near the three-decade low on this measure (in 1993).</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>大数据。</b>8 月至 9 月调查周期间，劳动力市场的高频数据好坏参半，对就业增长的基本速度几乎没有提供指导。跟踪的五项指标中有三项显示增幅达到或高于共识（人口普查小企业脉冲+50万，ADP+60万，谷歌移动+200万），但Homebase数据是下行的异常值。从表面上看，这将表明就业人数大幅下降。人口普查家庭脉搏（-60万）也相当疲软，尽管令人鼓舞，但它也表明随着学校重新开放，与儿童保育相关的劳动力供应逆风大幅下降。</li><li><b>季节性。</b>9月份的季节性障碍相对较低：BLS调整因素通常假设私人就业人数（不包括公立学校）下降60-70万人，而7月和8月的平均就业人数约为-10万人。持续的劳动力短缺鼓励企业在夏季结束时减少裁员。9 月份的季节性因素可能因危机而发生了不利的演变，这在一定程度上抵消了这一推动力--特别是与去年 9 月份重新开放推动的就业激增相吻合（私人就业人数 +93.2 万 mom sa）。</li><li><b>申请失业救济金。</b>尽管个人过渡到或试图过渡到国家计划，但9月份的首次申请失业救济人数有所上升，平均每周为33.9万人，而8月份为37.8万人。在包括紧急福利在内的所有员工计划中，持续索赔大幅下降（-330万）——但同样是因为非经济原因（联邦增强型计划到期）。从调查周到调查周，常规州项目的持续申请减少了10.6万人。</li><li><b>裁员。</b>Challenger、Gray &amp; Christmas 报告的宣布裁员人数在前两个月下降 14% 后，9 月份环比反弹 11%（SA by GS）。尽管如此，这一指标的裁员仍接近三十年来的最低点（1993 年）。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/september-payrolls-preview-it-will-be-beat-question-how-big\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/september-payrolls-preview-it-will-be-beat-question-how-big","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135993400","content_text":"After a strong initial claims report and a solid ADP private payrolls print, all eyes turn to the most important economic data point of the week, and the month, Friday's nonfarm payrolls report due at 830am ET on Friday, where consensus expects a 500K print- more than double last month's disappointing 235K print - as well as a drop in the unemployment rate to 5.1% and an increase in average hourly earnings to 4.6%. And unlike last month, when wecorrectly predicted the big miss in August payrolls, this time we agree that tomorrow's report will be a beat, the only question is how big.\nHere is a snapshot of what to expect tomorrow:\n\nTotal Payrolls: 500K, Last 235K\nPrivate Payrolls: 450K, Last 243K\nUnemployment Rate: 5.1%, Last 5.2%\nLabor force participation rate: 61.8%, Last 61.7%\nAverage Hourly Earnings Y/Y: 4.6%, Last 4.3%\nAverage Weekly Hours: 34.7, Last 34.7\n\nAs Newsquawk writes in its NFP preview, September’s jobs data, the last before the Fed’s November 3rd policy meeting, will be framed in the context of the central bank’s expected taper announcement, where a merely satisfactory report would likely to be enough for the FOMC to greenlight a November announcement to scale-back its USD 120BN/month asset purchases.\nGoldman economists are more bullish than normal, and estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 600k in September, above consensus of +500k, and they note that \"labor demand remains very strong, and we believe the nationwide expiration of enhanced unemployment beneﬁts on September 5 boosted effective labor supply and job growth—as it did in July and August in states that ended federal beneﬁts early.\"As a result, Goldman is assuming a 200k boost in tomorrow’s numbers and a larger boost in October. The bank also believes the reopening of schools contributed to September job growth, by around 150k. Despite these tailwinds, Big Data employment signals were mixed, and dining activity rebounded only marginally.\nLabor market proxies have been constructive for the month: ADP’s gauge of payrolls surprised to the upside, although analysts continue to note that the direct relationship between the official data and the ADP’s gauge is tenuous, despite the gap being under 100k over the last three reports. The number of initial jobless claims and continuing claims has eased back between the survey periods of the August and September jobs data, although analysts note that more recent releases have shown an uptick in claims potentially clouding the outlook. The ISM business surveys have signaled employment growth in the month, with manufacturing employment rising into growth territory again, but services sector hiring cooled a little in the month, but remains expansionary; survey commentary continues to allude to a tight labour market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September employment situation report at 13:30BST/08:30EDT on October 8th.\nPOLICY: The September jobs report might have reduced relevance on trading conditions given that Fed officials have effectively confirmed that, barring a collapse in the jobs data, it is on course to announce a tapering of its asset purchases at the November 3rd meeting. Accordingly, trading risks may be skewed to the downside, rather than to the upside, where a significant payrolls miss may present obstacles to the Fed announcing its taper. Additionally, it is worth being cognizant of how efforts in Washington to raise the debt ceiling are progressing; as yet, officials have not struck a deal, and are in the process of enacting stop gap legislation to allow funding into December; some analysts suggest that the Fed may be reticent to tighten policy in the face of potential default risks.\nPAYROLLS:The consensus looks for 500k nonfarm payrolls to be added to the US economy in September (prev. 235k), which would be a cooler rate of growth than the three- and six-month average rate, though in line with the 12-month average (3-month average is 750k/month, the six-month average is 653k/month, and the 12-month average is 503k/month – that technically at least suggests an improving rate of payrolls growth in recent months).Aggregating the nonfarm payrolls data since March 2020, around 5.33mln Americans remain out of work relative to pre-pandemic levels.\nMEASURES OF SLACK:The Unemployment Rate is expected at 5.1% (prev. 5.2%); Labour Force Participation previously at 61.7% vs 63.2% pre-pandemic; U6 measure of underemployment was previously at 8.8% vs 7.0% prepandemic; Employment-population ratio was previously 58.5% vs 61.1% pre-pandemic. These measures of slack are likely to provide more insight into how Fed officials are judging labour market progress, with many in recent months noting that they are closely watching the Underemployment Rate, Participation Rate, and the Employment-Population Ratio for a better handle on the level of slack that remains in the economy. Analysts would be encouraged the closer these get to pre-pandemic levels.\nEARNINGS:Average Hourly Earnings expected at +0.4% M/M (prev. +0.6%); Average Hourly Earnings expected at +4. 6% Y/Y (prev. +4.3%); Average Workweek Hours expected at 34.7hrs (prev. 34.7hrs). Aggregating the nonfarm payrolls data since March 2020, around 5.33mln Americans still remain out of work relative to pre-pandemic levels.\nADP:The ADP National Employment Report showed 568k jobs added to the US economy in September, topping expectations for 428k, and a better pace than the prior 340k (revised down from 374k initially reported). ADP itself said that the labor market recovery continued to make progress despite the marked slowdown in the rate of job additions from the 748k pace seen in Q2. It also noted that Leisure & Hospitality remained one of the biggest beneficiaries to the recovery, though said that hiring was still heavily impacted by the trajectory of the pandemic, especially for small firms. ADP thinks that the current bottlenecks in hiring will likely fade as the pandemic situation continues to improve, and that could set the stage for solid job gains in the months ahead. On the data methodology, analysts continue to note that ADP's model incorporates much of the prior official payrolls data, other macroeconomic variables, as well as data from its own payrolls platform; \"Payrolls were soft in August, thanks to the hit to the services sector from the Delta variant, and that weakness likely constrained ADP data,\" Pantheon Macroeconomics said. \"The overshoot to consensus, therefore, suggests that the other inputs to ADP’s model were stronger than we expected, but none of the details are published, so we don’t know if the overshoot was model-driven or due to stronger employment data at ADP’s clients.\"\nINITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS:Initial jobless claims data for the week that coincides with the BLS jobs report survey window saw claims at around 351k – little changed from the 349k for the August jobs data survey window – where analysts said seasonal factors played a role in boosting the weekly data, while there may have been some lingering Hurricane Ida effects; the corresponding continuing claims data has fallen to 2.802mln in the September survey period vs 2.908mln in the August survey period. In aggregate, the data continues to point to declining trend, although in recent weeks the level of jobless claims has been picking up again.\nBUSINESS SURVEYS: The Services and Manufacturing ISM reports showed divergent trends in September, with the service sector employment sub-index easing a little to 53.0 from 53.7, signalling growth but at a slower rate, while the manufacturing employment sub-index rose back into expansionary territory, printing 50.2 from 49.0 prior. On the manufacturing sector, ISM said companies were still struggling to meet labour-management plans, but noted some modest signs of progress compared to previous months: \"Less than 5% of comments noted improvements regarding employment, compared to none in August,\" it said, \"an overwhelming majority of panelists indicate their companies are hiring or attempting to hire,\" where around 85% of responses were about seeking additional staffing, while nearly half of the respondents expressed difficulty in filling positions, an increase from August. \"The increasing frequency of comments on turnover rates and retirements continued a trend that began in August,\" ISM said. Meanwhile, in the services sector, employment activity rose for a third straight month; respondents noted that employees were flocking to better-paying jobs and there was a lack of pipeline to replace these staff, while other respondents talked of labor shortages being experienced at all levels.\nARGUING FOR A BETTER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT:\n\nEnd of federal enhanced unemployment beneﬁts. The expiration of federal beneﬁts in some states boosted labor supply and job-ﬁnding rates over the summer, and all remaining such programs expired on September 5. The July and August indicated a cumulative 6pp boost to job-ﬁnding probabilities from June to August for workers losing $300 top-up payments and a 12pp boost for workers losing all beneﬁts.Some of the 6mn workers who lost some or all beneﬁts on September 5 got a job by September 18—in time to be counted in tomorrow’s data.Goldman assumes a +200k boost to job growth from this channel, with a larger increase in subsequent reports (+1.3mn cumulatively by year end).\n\n\n\nSchool reopening. The largest 100 school districts are all open for in-person learning, catalyzing the return of many previously furloughed teachers and support staff. While full normalization of employment levels would contribute 600k jobs (mom sa, see left panel of the chart below), some janitors and support staff did not return due to hybrid teaching models, and job openings in the sector are only 200k above the pre-crisis level (see right panel). Relatedly, the BLS’s seasonal factors already embed the usual rehiring of education workers on summer layoff, so if fewer janitors returned to work than in a typical September, this would reduce seasonally adjusted job growth, other things equal. Taken together, assume a roughly 150k boost from the reopening of schools in tomorrow’s report.\n\n\n\nJob availability. The Conference Board labor differential—the difference between the percent of respondents saying jobs are plentiful and those saying jobs are hardto get - edged down to 42.5 from 44.4, still an elevated level. Additionally, JOLTS job openings increased by 749k in July to a new record high of 10.9mn.\nADP.Private sector employment in the ADP report increased by 568k in September, above consensus expectations for a 430k gain, implying strong growth in the underlying ADP sample. Additionally, schools generally do not use ADP payroll software, arguing for a larger gain from school reopening in the official payroll measure.\n\nARGUING FOR A WEAKER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT:\n\nDelta variant.Rebounding covid infection rates weighed on services consumption and the labor market in August. And while US case counts began to decline in early September, restaurant seatings on Open Table rebounded only marginally. leisure and hospitality employment rose in September, but probably not at the ~400k monthly pace of June and July.\nEmployer surveys. The employment components of our business surveys were flat to down, whereas we and consensus forecast a pickup in job growth. Goldman's services survey employment tracker remained unchanged at 54.5 and the manufacturing survey employment tracker declined 0.4pt to 57.8. And while the Goldman Sachs Analyst Index (GSAI) decreased 0.8% to 68.5, the employment component rose1.9% to 71.9.\n\nNEUTRAL FACTORS:\n\nBig Data.High-frequency data on the labor market were mixed between the August and September survey weeks, on net providing little guidance about the underlying pace of job growth. Three of the five measures tracked indicate an at-or-above-consensus gain (Census Small Business Pulse +0.5mn, ADP +0.6mn,Google mobility +2mn), but the Homebase data was an outlier to the downside. At face value, it would indicate a large outright decline in payrolls. The Census Household Pulse (-0.6mn) was also quite weak, though encouragingly, it also indicated a large drop in childcare-related labor supply headwinds as schools reopened.\nSeasonality.The September seasonal hurdle is relatively low: the BLS adjustment factors generally assume a 600-700k decline in private payrolls (which exclude public schools), compared to around -100k on average in July and August. Continued labor shortages encouraged firms to lay off fewer workers at the end of summer. Partially offsetting this tailwind, the September seasonal factors may have evolved unfavorably due to the crisis—specifically by fitting to last September’s reopening-driven job surge (private payrolls +932k mom sa).\nJobless claims.Initial jobless claims fell during the September payroll month, averaging 339k per week vs. 378k in August despite a boost from individuals transitioning or attempting to transition to state programs. Across all employee programs including emergency benefits, continuing claims fell dramatically (-3.3mn)–but again for non-economic reasons (federal enhanced programs expired). Continuing claims in regular state programs decreased 106k from survey week to survey week.\nJob cuts.Announced layoffs reported by Challenger, Gray & Christmas rebounded 11% month-over-month in September after decreasing by 14% over the prior two months (SA by GS). Nonetheless, layoffs remain near the three-decade low on this measure (in 1993).","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2037,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":823692198,"gmtCreate":1633616531555,"gmtModify":1633616621981,"author":{"id":"3582059706803344","authorId":"3582059706803344","name":"YJ12","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/053b18ef264ba18845e0b6ec9727bcb6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582059706803344","idStr":"3582059706803344"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/823692198","repostId":"1170599877","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3069,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":829355519,"gmtCreate":1633476763475,"gmtModify":1633476763787,"author":{"id":"3582059706803344","authorId":"3582059706803344","name":"YJ12","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/053b18ef264ba18845e0b6ec9727bcb6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582059706803344","idStr":"3582059706803344"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/829355519","repostId":"1101968131","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2336,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":820429108,"gmtCreate":1633418939694,"gmtModify":1633418939930,"author":{"id":"3582059706803344","authorId":"3582059706803344","name":"YJ12","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/053b18ef264ba18845e0b6ec9727bcb6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582059706803344","idStr":"3582059706803344"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/820429108","repostId":"1152735438","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":714,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":867574724,"gmtCreate":1633305162331,"gmtModify":1633305180414,"author":{"id":"3582059706803344","authorId":"3582059706803344","name":"YJ12","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/053b18ef264ba18845e0b6ec9727bcb6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582059706803344","idStr":"3582059706803344"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/867574724","repostId":"2172313961","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":703,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":864027188,"gmtCreate":1633044793769,"gmtModify":1633044794055,"author":{"id":"3582059706803344","authorId":"3582059706803344","name":"YJ12","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/053b18ef264ba18845e0b6ec9727bcb6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582059706803344","idStr":"3582059706803344"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hihihi","listText":"Hihihi","text":"Hihihi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/864027188","repostId":"1166373612","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166373612","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633043917,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1166373612?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-01 07:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stocks sink in whipsaw session, S&P 500 posts first monthly decline since January<blockquote>股市暴跌，标普500自一月份以来首次月度下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166373612","media":"Yahoo Finance","summary":"Stocks sank on Thursday in the final session of September and the third quarter, with stocks extendi","content":"<p>Stocks sank on Thursday in the final session of September and the third quarter, with stocks extending a weeks-long streak of volatility as concerns over inflation, the economic backdrop and debates in Washington over a host of measures weighed on equities.</p><p><blockquote>周四，股市在 9 月和第三季度的最后一个交易日下跌，由于对通胀、经济背景的担忧以及华盛顿关于一系列措施的辩论给股市带来压力，股市延续了长达数周的波动。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 ended the day lower by 1.2%. The index fell by more than 4.5% in September for its first monthly decline since January, with concerns around fiscal and monetary policy, inflation, regulations in China and the ongoing pandemic all colliding to knock equities from their upward trajectory. Still, the S&amp;P 500 remained up by about 15% for the year-to-date through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>标普500收盘下跌1.2%。该指数 9 月份下跌超过 4.5%，为 1 月份以来首次月度下跌，对财政和货币政策、通胀、中国监管以及持续的疫情的担忧都相互碰撞，导致股市偏离上涨轨迹。尽管如此，截至周四收盘，标普500今年迄今仍上涨约 15%。</blockquote></p><p> Cyclical stocks, though down during Thursday's session, led the way higher in September as investors bet on higher inflation and rising rates. A jump in crude oil prices helped make the energy sector by far the best performer in the S&amp;P 500. Financial stocks also outperformed, with rising Treasury yields serving as a tailwind to bank profitability.</p><p><blockquote>尽管周四交易时段下跌，但由于投资者押注通胀上升和利率上升，周期性股票在 9 月份领涨。原油价格的上涨使能源行业成为标普500迄今为止表现最好的行业。金融股也表现出色，国债收益率上升成为银行盈利能力的推动力。</blockquote></p><p> The Nasdaq has underperformed over the past month as traders rotated away from the growth and technology stocks that pulled the market higher last year. High-flying technology stocks also got hit as Treasury yields jumped over the past week, with the rising borrowing costs weighing on the valuations of growth companies that rely heavily on expectations of strong future earnings.</p><p><blockquote>过去一个月，纳斯达克表现不佳，因为交易员纷纷远离去年推动市场走高的成长型和科技股。随着过去一周美国国债收益率飙升，飙升的科技股也受到打击，借贷成本上升给严重依赖未来强劲盈利预期的成长型公司的估值带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> “This feels a lot worse than it actually is because we haven’t had much volatility since last October, last September,” Paul Schatz, Heritage Capital President, told Yahoo Finance Live on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>“Heritage Capital 总裁保罗-沙茨（Paul Schatz）周三对雅虎财经直播说：”这种感觉比实际情况要糟糕得多，因为自去年 10 月、去年 9 月以来，我们就没有太大的波动。</blockquote></p><p> Concerns about inflation and supply chain issues continued to hamper the markets on Thursday.Shares of Bed Bath &amp; Beyond fell 22.1%after the company said those issues hurt the company’s second-quarter results, and the news appeared to hit fellow retail stocks. Walgreens Boots Alliance and Home Depot fell 3.4% and nearly 2.6%, respectively, making them two of the worst performers in the Dow.</p><p><blockquote>周四，对通胀和供应链问题的担忧继续阻碍市场。Bed Bath &amp; Beyond 的股价下跌了 22.1%，此前该公司表示这些问题损害了公司第二季度的业绩，这一消息似乎打击了其他零售股。沃尔格林博姿联盟和家得宝分别下跌 3.4% 和近 2.6%，成为道琼斯指数中表现最差的两家公司。</blockquote></p><p> Energy and financial stocks, which have been some of the best performers in recent weeks, took a step back on Thursday. Shares of Goldman Sachs were 1.7% lower, while JPMorgan was down 1.3%.</p><p><blockquote>最近几周表现最好的能源和金融股周四有所回落。高盛股价下跌 1.7%，摩根大通股价下跌 1.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Tech stocks outperformed on Thursday, but the Nasdaq still suffered its fifth-straight losing session. Tech names have been hit by the recent jump in the 10-year Treasury yield, which broke above 1.567% earlier in the week. The measure retreated slightly on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>科技股周四表现优异，但纳斯达克仍连续第五个交易日下跌。科技股受到近期 10 年期国债收益率飙升的打击，本周早些时候该收益率突破 1.567%。该措施周四略有回落。</blockquote></p><p> Rising yields, fueled by concerns over inflation and the Federal Reserve’s signals that it will soon begin winding down its pandemic-era asset purchases, are seen as a negative for tech stocks because they make far-off future profits look less attractive to investors.</p><p><blockquote>由于对通胀的担忧以及美联储将很快开始逐步减少大流行病时期的资产购买的信号，收益率上升被视为对科技股的利空，因为这使得遥远的未来利润对投资者的吸引力下降。</blockquote></p><p> “We’ve been talking about spooky season — September and October — and the expectation of about a 5% dip from the high. … But we’ve said we don’t expect a correction,” said David Bianco of DWS Group. A correction is typically defined as a pullback of more than 10% from a recent high.</p><p><blockquote>“我们一直在谈论阴森恐怖的季节--9 月和 10 月--以及从高点下降约 5% 的预期。.但我们说过，我们预计不会出现回调，”DWS 集团的大卫-比安科（David Bianco）说。修正通常被定义为从近期高点回调超过 10%。</blockquote></p><p> “We expect yields to climb, and that’s why we’re overweight banks, but we don’t expect yields to surge. And without a surge in yields, we can live with these [valuations],” Bianco added.</p><p><blockquote>“我们预计收益率会攀升，这也是我们成为跑赢大盘银行的原因，但我们预计收益率不会激增。如果收益率没有激增，我们就可以接受这些[估值]，”比安科补充道。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of Apple and Amazon finished the day in negative territory after moving higher in morning trading. Chip giant Nvidia and Netflix managed to hold on to their gains but closed well off session highs.</p><p><blockquote>苹果和亚马逊的股价在早盘交易中走高后收盘下跌。芯片巨头英伟达 (Nvidia) 和 Netflix 设法保持了涨幅，但收盘价远远低于盘中高点。</blockquote></p><p> “We wouldn’t get caught up in any end-of-quarter machinations today and continue to advise fading rallies (especially in tech) as the coming weeks will stay rocky,” wrote Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge.</p><p><blockquote>“Vital Knowledge 的亚当-克里萨富利（Adam Crisafulli）写道：”我们今天不会陷入任何季度末的阴谋诡计，并继续建议涨势逐渐消退（尤其是科技股），因为未来几周仍将不稳定。</blockquote></p><p> September’s losses led to a weak third quarter for the market. For the 3-month period, the Dow dropped 1.9%, while the Nasdaq Composite shed 0.4%. The S&amp;P 500 held on to a modest gain and is still up nearly 15% on the year.</p><p><blockquote>9 月份的亏损导致市场第三季度表现疲软。3个月期间，道琼斯指数下跌1.9%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.4%。标普500保持小幅上涨，今年仍上涨近15%。</blockquote></p><p> October has a reputation for some violent sell-offs but overall is typically the start of better seasonal performance for stocks. The S&amp;P 500 averages a 0.8% gain for the month, according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac.</p><p><blockquote>十月以剧烈抛售而闻名，但总体而言，这通常是股票季节性表现更好的开始。根据《股票交易员年鉴》（The Stock Trader's Almanac）的数据，标普500本月平均上涨 0.8%。</blockquote></p><p> Investors were also keeping an eye on Washington as Congresspassed a bill that would fund the government through early December. The bill would avert a government shutdown but Congress still has not raised the debt ceiling, which Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen says will be reached on Oct. 18.</p><p><blockquote>随着国会通过一项法案，为政府提供资金直至 12 月初，投资者也在密切关注华盛顿。该法案将避免政府关门，但国会仍未提高债务上限，财政部长珍妮特·耶伦表示，债务上限将于 10 月 18 日达到。</blockquote></p><p> Yellen and Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified before the House Financial Services Committee on Thursday. Yellen reiterated her call for Congress to raise the debt ceiling, saying that failure to do so would be “catastrophic.”</p><p><blockquote>耶伦和美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周四在众议院金融服务委员会作证。耶伦重申了她对国会提高债务上限的看涨期权，称不这样做将是 “灾难性的”。</blockquote></p><p> On the data front,initial jobless claimsfor the prior week came in at 362,000. Economists were expecting a print of 335,000, according to Dow Jones. The October jobs report, which is seen as a key indicator for the Federal Reserve’s next steps, will be released on Oct. 8.</p><p><blockquote>数据方面，前一周首次申请失业救济人数为 362,000 人。根据道琼斯的数据，经济学家预计印刷量为 335,000 份。10 月份就业报告将于 10 月 8 日发布，该报告被视为美联储下一步行动的关键指标。</blockquote></p><p> Here were the main moves in markets as of 4:09 p.m. ET:</p><p><blockquote>以下是截至下午 4:09 的市场主要走势ET：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>S&amp;P 500 (^GSPC)</b>: -51.92 (-1.19%) to 4,307.54</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>标普500（^GSPC）</b>：-51.92 (-1.19%) 至 4,307.54</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Dow (^DJI)</b>: -546.80 (-1.59%) to 33,843.92</p><p><blockquote><li><b>道琼斯指数（^DJI）</b>：-546.80 (-1.59%) 至 33,843.92</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Nasdaq (^IXIC)</b>: -63.86 (-0.44%) to 14,448.58</p><p><blockquote><li><b>纳斯达克（^IXIC）</b>：-63.86 (-0.44%) 至 14,448.58</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Crude (CL=F)</b>: +$0.11 (+0.15%) to $74.94 a barrel</p><p><blockquote><li><b>原油（CL=F）</b>：每桶 +0.11 美元 (+0.15%) 至 74.94 美元</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Gold (GC=F)</b>: +$33.70 (+1.96%) to $1,756.60 per ounce</p><p><blockquote><li><b>金（GC=F）</b>：+33.70 美元（+1.96%）至每盎司 1,756.60 美元</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>10-year Treasury (^TNX)</b>: -1.2 bps to yield 1.5290%</p><p><blockquote><li><b>10年期国债(^TNX)</b>：-1.2 个基点，收益率为 1.5290%</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> —</p><p><blockquote>—</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks sink in whipsaw session, S&P 500 posts first monthly decline since January<blockquote>股市暴跌，标普500自一月份以来首次月度下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Yahoo Finance</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-01 07:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Stocks sank on Thursday in the final session of September and the third quarter, with stocks extending a weeks-long streak of volatility as concerns over inflation, the economic backdrop and debates in Washington over a host of measures weighed on equities.</p><p><blockquote>周四，股市在 9 月和第三季度的最后一个交易日下跌，由于对通胀、经济背景的担忧以及华盛顿关于一系列措施的辩论给股市带来压力，股市延续了长达数周的波动。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 ended the day lower by 1.2%. The index fell by more than 4.5% in September for its first monthly decline since January, with concerns around fiscal and monetary policy, inflation, regulations in China and the ongoing pandemic all colliding to knock equities from their upward trajectory. Still, the S&amp;P 500 remained up by about 15% for the year-to-date through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>标普500收盘下跌1.2%。该指数 9 月份下跌超过 4.5%，为 1 月份以来首次月度下跌，对财政和货币政策、通胀、中国监管以及持续的疫情的担忧都相互碰撞，导致股市偏离上涨轨迹。尽管如此，截至周四收盘，标普500今年迄今仍上涨约 15%。</blockquote></p><p> Cyclical stocks, though down during Thursday's session, led the way higher in September as investors bet on higher inflation and rising rates. A jump in crude oil prices helped make the energy sector by far the best performer in the S&amp;P 500. Financial stocks also outperformed, with rising Treasury yields serving as a tailwind to bank profitability.</p><p><blockquote>尽管周四交易时段下跌，但由于投资者押注通胀上升和利率上升，周期性股票在 9 月份领涨。原油价格的上涨使能源行业成为标普500迄今为止表现最好的行业。金融股也表现出色，国债收益率上升成为银行盈利能力的推动力。</blockquote></p><p> The Nasdaq has underperformed over the past month as traders rotated away from the growth and technology stocks that pulled the market higher last year. High-flying technology stocks also got hit as Treasury yields jumped over the past week, with the rising borrowing costs weighing on the valuations of growth companies that rely heavily on expectations of strong future earnings.</p><p><blockquote>过去一个月，纳斯达克表现不佳，因为交易员纷纷远离去年推动市场走高的成长型和科技股。随着过去一周美国国债收益率飙升，飙升的科技股也受到打击，借贷成本上升给严重依赖未来强劲盈利预期的成长型公司的估值带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> “This feels a lot worse than it actually is because we haven’t had much volatility since last October, last September,” Paul Schatz, Heritage Capital President, told Yahoo Finance Live on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>“Heritage Capital 总裁保罗-沙茨（Paul Schatz）周三对雅虎财经直播说：”这种感觉比实际情况要糟糕得多，因为自去年 10 月、去年 9 月以来，我们就没有太大的波动。</blockquote></p><p> Concerns about inflation and supply chain issues continued to hamper the markets on Thursday.Shares of Bed Bath &amp; Beyond fell 22.1%after the company said those issues hurt the company’s second-quarter results, and the news appeared to hit fellow retail stocks. Walgreens Boots Alliance and Home Depot fell 3.4% and nearly 2.6%, respectively, making them two of the worst performers in the Dow.</p><p><blockquote>周四，对通胀和供应链问题的担忧继续阻碍市场。Bed Bath &amp; Beyond 的股价下跌了 22.1%，此前该公司表示这些问题损害了公司第二季度的业绩，这一消息似乎打击了其他零售股。沃尔格林博姿联盟和家得宝分别下跌 3.4% 和近 2.6%，成为道琼斯指数中表现最差的两家公司。</blockquote></p><p> Energy and financial stocks, which have been some of the best performers in recent weeks, took a step back on Thursday. Shares of Goldman Sachs were 1.7% lower, while JPMorgan was down 1.3%.</p><p><blockquote>最近几周表现最好的能源和金融股周四有所回落。高盛股价下跌 1.7%，摩根大通股价下跌 1.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Tech stocks outperformed on Thursday, but the Nasdaq still suffered its fifth-straight losing session. Tech names have been hit by the recent jump in the 10-year Treasury yield, which broke above 1.567% earlier in the week. The measure retreated slightly on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>科技股周四表现优异，但纳斯达克仍连续第五个交易日下跌。科技股受到近期 10 年期国债收益率飙升的打击，本周早些时候该收益率突破 1.567%。该措施周四略有回落。</blockquote></p><p> Rising yields, fueled by concerns over inflation and the Federal Reserve’s signals that it will soon begin winding down its pandemic-era asset purchases, are seen as a negative for tech stocks because they make far-off future profits look less attractive to investors.</p><p><blockquote>由于对通胀的担忧以及美联储将很快开始逐步减少大流行病时期的资产购买的信号，收益率上升被视为对科技股的利空，因为这使得遥远的未来利润对投资者的吸引力下降。</blockquote></p><p> “We’ve been talking about spooky season — September and October — and the expectation of about a 5% dip from the high. … But we’ve said we don’t expect a correction,” said David Bianco of DWS Group. A correction is typically defined as a pullback of more than 10% from a recent high.</p><p><blockquote>“我们一直在谈论阴森恐怖的季节--9 月和 10 月--以及从高点下降约 5% 的预期。.但我们说过，我们预计不会出现回调，”DWS 集团的大卫-比安科（David Bianco）说。修正通常被定义为从近期高点回调超过 10%。</blockquote></p><p> “We expect yields to climb, and that’s why we’re overweight banks, but we don’t expect yields to surge. And without a surge in yields, we can live with these [valuations],” Bianco added.</p><p><blockquote>“我们预计收益率会攀升，这也是我们成为跑赢大盘银行的原因，但我们预计收益率不会激增。如果收益率没有激增，我们就可以接受这些[估值]，”比安科补充道。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of Apple and Amazon finished the day in negative territory after moving higher in morning trading. Chip giant Nvidia and Netflix managed to hold on to their gains but closed well off session highs.</p><p><blockquote>苹果和亚马逊的股价在早盘交易中走高后收盘下跌。芯片巨头英伟达 (Nvidia) 和 Netflix 设法保持了涨幅，但收盘价远远低于盘中高点。</blockquote></p><p> “We wouldn’t get caught up in any end-of-quarter machinations today and continue to advise fading rallies (especially in tech) as the coming weeks will stay rocky,” wrote Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge.</p><p><blockquote>“Vital Knowledge 的亚当-克里萨富利（Adam Crisafulli）写道：”我们今天不会陷入任何季度末的阴谋诡计，并继续建议涨势逐渐消退（尤其是科技股），因为未来几周仍将不稳定。</blockquote></p><p> September’s losses led to a weak third quarter for the market. For the 3-month period, the Dow dropped 1.9%, while the Nasdaq Composite shed 0.4%. The S&amp;P 500 held on to a modest gain and is still up nearly 15% on the year.</p><p><blockquote>9 月份的亏损导致市场第三季度表现疲软。3个月期间，道琼斯指数下跌1.9%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.4%。标普500保持小幅上涨，今年仍上涨近15%。</blockquote></p><p> October has a reputation for some violent sell-offs but overall is typically the start of better seasonal performance for stocks. The S&amp;P 500 averages a 0.8% gain for the month, according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac.</p><p><blockquote>十月以剧烈抛售而闻名，但总体而言，这通常是股票季节性表现更好的开始。根据《股票交易员年鉴》（The Stock Trader's Almanac）的数据，标普500本月平均上涨 0.8%。</blockquote></p><p> Investors were also keeping an eye on Washington as Congresspassed a bill that would fund the government through early December. The bill would avert a government shutdown but Congress still has not raised the debt ceiling, which Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen says will be reached on Oct. 18.</p><p><blockquote>随着国会通过一项法案，为政府提供资金直至 12 月初，投资者也在密切关注华盛顿。该法案将避免政府关门，但国会仍未提高债务上限，财政部长珍妮特·耶伦表示，债务上限将于 10 月 18 日达到。</blockquote></p><p> Yellen and Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified before the House Financial Services Committee on Thursday. Yellen reiterated her call for Congress to raise the debt ceiling, saying that failure to do so would be “catastrophic.”</p><p><blockquote>耶伦和美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周四在众议院金融服务委员会作证。耶伦重申了她对国会提高债务上限的看涨期权，称不这样做将是 “灾难性的”。</blockquote></p><p> On the data front,initial jobless claimsfor the prior week came in at 362,000. Economists were expecting a print of 335,000, according to Dow Jones. The October jobs report, which is seen as a key indicator for the Federal Reserve’s next steps, will be released on Oct. 8.</p><p><blockquote>数据方面，前一周首次申请失业救济人数为 362,000 人。根据道琼斯的数据，经济学家预计印刷量为 335,000 份。10 月份就业报告将于 10 月 8 日发布，该报告被视为美联储下一步行动的关键指标。</blockquote></p><p> Here were the main moves in markets as of 4:09 p.m. ET:</p><p><blockquote>以下是截至下午 4:09 的市场主要走势ET：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>S&amp;P 500 (^GSPC)</b>: -51.92 (-1.19%) to 4,307.54</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>标普500（^GSPC）</b>：-51.92 (-1.19%) 至 4,307.54</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Dow (^DJI)</b>: -546.80 (-1.59%) to 33,843.92</p><p><blockquote><li><b>道琼斯指数（^DJI）</b>：-546.80 (-1.59%) 至 33,843.92</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Nasdaq (^IXIC)</b>: -63.86 (-0.44%) to 14,448.58</p><p><blockquote><li><b>纳斯达克（^IXIC）</b>：-63.86 (-0.44%) 至 14,448.58</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Crude (CL=F)</b>: +$0.11 (+0.15%) to $74.94 a barrel</p><p><blockquote><li><b>原油（CL=F）</b>：每桶 +0.11 美元 (+0.15%) 至 74.94 美元</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Gold (GC=F)</b>: +$33.70 (+1.96%) to $1,756.60 per ounce</p><p><blockquote><li><b>金（GC=F）</b>：+33.70 美元（+1.96%）至每盎司 1,756.60 美元</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>10-year Treasury (^TNX)</b>: -1.2 bps to yield 1.5290%</p><p><blockquote><li><b>10年期国债(^TNX)</b>：-1.2 个基点，收益率为 1.5290%</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> —</p><p><blockquote>—</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-september-30-2021-223533367.html\">Yahoo Finance</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-september-30-2021-223533367.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166373612","content_text":"Stocks sank on Thursday in the final session of September and the third quarter, with stocks extending a weeks-long streak of volatility as concerns over inflation, the economic backdrop and debates in Washington over a host of measures weighed on equities.\nThe S&P 500 ended the day lower by 1.2%. The index fell by more than 4.5% in September for its first monthly decline since January, with concerns around fiscal and monetary policy, inflation, regulations in China and the ongoing pandemic all colliding to knock equities from their upward trajectory. Still, the S&P 500 remained up by about 15% for the year-to-date through Thursday's close.\nCyclical stocks, though down during Thursday's session, led the way higher in September as investors bet on higher inflation and rising rates. A jump in crude oil prices helped make the energy sector by far the best performer in the S&P 500. Financial stocks also outperformed, with rising Treasury yields serving as a tailwind to bank profitability.\nThe Nasdaq has underperformed over the past month as traders rotated away from the growth and technology stocks that pulled the market higher last year. High-flying technology stocks also got hit as Treasury yields jumped over the past week, with the rising borrowing costs weighing on the valuations of growth companies that rely heavily on expectations of strong future earnings.\n“This feels a lot worse than it actually is because we haven’t had much volatility since last October, last September,” Paul Schatz, Heritage Capital President, told Yahoo Finance Live on Wednesday.\nConcerns about inflation and supply chain issues continued to hamper the markets on Thursday.Shares of Bed Bath & Beyond fell 22.1%after the company said those issues hurt the company’s second-quarter results, and the news appeared to hit fellow retail stocks. Walgreens Boots Alliance and Home Depot fell 3.4% and nearly 2.6%, respectively, making them two of the worst performers in the Dow.\nEnergy and financial stocks, which have been some of the best performers in recent weeks, took a step back on Thursday. Shares of Goldman Sachs were 1.7% lower, while JPMorgan was down 1.3%.\nTech stocks outperformed on Thursday, but the Nasdaq still suffered its fifth-straight losing session. Tech names have been hit by the recent jump in the 10-year Treasury yield, which broke above 1.567% earlier in the week. The measure retreated slightly on Thursday.\nRising yields, fueled by concerns over inflation and the Federal Reserve’s signals that it will soon begin winding down its pandemic-era asset purchases, are seen as a negative for tech stocks because they make far-off future profits look less attractive to investors.\n“We’ve been talking about spooky season — September and October — and the expectation of about a 5% dip from the high. … But we’ve said we don’t expect a correction,” said David Bianco of DWS Group. A correction is typically defined as a pullback of more than 10% from a recent high.\n“We expect yields to climb, and that’s why we’re overweight banks, but we don’t expect yields to surge. And without a surge in yields, we can live with these [valuations],” Bianco added.\nShares of Apple and Amazon finished the day in negative territory after moving higher in morning trading. Chip giant Nvidia and Netflix managed to hold on to their gains but closed well off session highs.\n“We wouldn’t get caught up in any end-of-quarter machinations today and continue to advise fading rallies (especially in tech) as the coming weeks will stay rocky,” wrote Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge.\nSeptember’s losses led to a weak third quarter for the market. For the 3-month period, the Dow dropped 1.9%, while the Nasdaq Composite shed 0.4%. The S&P 500 held on to a modest gain and is still up nearly 15% on the year.\nOctober has a reputation for some violent sell-offs but overall is typically the start of better seasonal performance for stocks. The S&P 500 averages a 0.8% gain for the month, according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac.\nInvestors were also keeping an eye on Washington as Congresspassed a bill that would fund the government through early December. The bill would avert a government shutdown but Congress still has not raised the debt ceiling, which Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen says will be reached on Oct. 18.\nYellen and Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified before the House Financial Services Committee on Thursday. Yellen reiterated her call for Congress to raise the debt ceiling, saying that failure to do so would be “catastrophic.”\nOn the data front,initial jobless claimsfor the prior week came in at 362,000. Economists were expecting a print of 335,000, according to Dow Jones. The October jobs report, which is seen as a key indicator for the Federal Reserve’s next steps, will be released on Oct. 8.\nHere were the main moves in markets as of 4:09 p.m. ET:\n\nS&P 500 (^GSPC): -51.92 (-1.19%) to 4,307.54\nDow (^DJI): -546.80 (-1.59%) to 33,843.92\nNasdaq (^IXIC): -63.86 (-0.44%) to 14,448.58\nCrude (CL=F): +$0.11 (+0.15%) to $74.94 a barrel\nGold (GC=F): +$33.70 (+1.96%) to $1,756.60 per ounce\n10-year Treasury (^TNX): -1.2 bps to yield 1.5290%\n\n—","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":561,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":865152864,"gmtCreate":1632962898797,"gmtModify":1632962899082,"author":{"id":"3582059706803344","authorId":"3582059706803344","name":"YJ12","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/053b18ef264ba18845e0b6ec9727bcb6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582059706803344","idStr":"3582059706803344"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"hihihi","listText":"hihihi","text":"hihihi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/865152864","repostId":"2171300933","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":575,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":862655342,"gmtCreate":1632877603466,"gmtModify":1632877603544,"author":{"id":"3582059706803344","authorId":"3582059706803344","name":"YJ12","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/053b18ef264ba18845e0b6ec9727bcb6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582059706803344","idStr":"3582059706803344"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"hihi","listText":"hihi","text":"hihi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862655342","repostId":"1179744266","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":696,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":866265958,"gmtCreate":1632785827374,"gmtModify":1632797598013,"author":{"id":"3582059706803344","authorId":"3582059706803344","name":"YJ12","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/053b18ef264ba18845e0b6ec9727bcb6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582059706803344","idStr":"3582059706803344"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/866265958","repostId":"2170624172","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":707,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":866321800,"gmtCreate":1632737120800,"gmtModify":1632798207746,"author":{"id":"3582059706803344","authorId":"3582059706803344","name":"YJ12","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/053b18ef264ba18845e0b6ec9727bcb6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582059706803344","idStr":"3582059706803344"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"hihi","listText":"hihi","text":"hihi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/866321800","repostId":"2170488786","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2170488786","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632685409,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2170488786?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-27 03:43","market":"other","language":"en","title":"Debt ceiling debates in Congress, consumer confidence: What to know this week<blockquote>国会债务上限辩论、消费者信心：本周需要了解什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2170488786","media":"Yahoo Finance","summary":"Investors this week are set to closely monitor developments in Washington, D.C., as lawmakers race t","content":"<p><div> Investors this week are set to closely monitor developments in Washington, D.C., as lawmakers race to pass legislation to avoid a government shutdown by the end of the month and debate raising the ...</p><p><blockquote><div>投资者本周将密切关注华盛顿特区的事态发展，因为立法者们竞相通过立法，以避免政府在本月底关门，并就提高……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/debt-ceiling-debates-in-congress-consumer-confidence-what-to-know-this-week-194329712.html\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/debt-ceiling-debates-in-congress-consumer-confidence-what-to-know-this-week-194329712.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"yahoofinance_au","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Debt ceiling debates in Congress, consumer confidence: What to know this week<blockquote>国会债务上限辩论、消费者信心：本周需要了解什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDebt ceiling debates in Congress, consumer confidence: What to know this week<blockquote>国会债务上限辩论、消费者信心：本周需要了解什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Yahoo Finance</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-27 03:43</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Investors this week are set to closely monitor developments in Washington, D.C., as lawmakers race to pass legislation to avoid a government shutdown by the end of the month and debate raising the ...</p><p><blockquote><div>投资者本周将密切关注华盛顿特区的事态发展，因为立法者们竞相通过立法，以避免政府在本月底关门，并就提高……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/debt-ceiling-debates-in-congress-consumer-confidence-what-to-know-this-week-194329712.html\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/debt-ceiling-debates-in-congress-consumer-confidence-what-to-know-this-week-194329712.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/debt-ceiling-debates-in-congress-consumer-confidence-what-to-know-this-week-194329712.html\">Yahoo Finance</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7e749e88d2580d292ffc6ae18d03b65","relate_stocks":{"SPY.AU":"SPDR® S&P 500® ETF Trust"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/debt-ceiling-debates-in-congress-consumer-confidence-what-to-know-this-week-194329712.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2170488786","content_text":"Investors this week are set to closely monitor developments in Washington, D.C., as lawmakers race to pass legislation to avoid a government shutdown by the end of the month and debate raising the debt ceiling. Elsewhere, economic data on consumer confidence is also due for release.\nThe Senate is expected to vote Monday on a procedural motion over the legislation passed by the House of Representatives last week. That bill included a plan to temporarily fund the government through early December, and came alongside a measure to raise the government debt ceiling through December 2022.\nThe latter point has been an area of contention for Senate Republicans, who are only narrowly outnumbered by Democratic lawmakers in both chambers and who have threatened to block the bill in its current form.\nSenate Republicans including Minority Leader Mitch McConnell have suggested that Democratic lawmakers should use the budget reconciliation process to raise the debt ceiling without Republican support. McConnell has, however, supported a short-term government funding bill that excludes a debt ceiling suspension.\n\"If they [the Democrats] want to tax, borrow and spend historic sums of money without our input, they’ll have to raise the debt limit without our help. This is the reality,” McConnell said on the Senate floor last week.\nDemocratic lawmakers, for their part, have called for the move to raise the debt limit be bipartisan to prevent the government from defaulting on its obligations. The Treasury Department has warned that the U.S. could default on its debts as soon as October in absence of congressional action.\n\"The U.S. has always paid its bills on time, but the overwhelming consensus among economists and Treasury officials of both parties is that failing to raise the debt limit would produce widespread economic catastrophe,\" Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen wrote in an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal last week.\nFederal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also warned of the consequences of a failure to raise the debt ceiling during his post-FOMC meeting press conference last week.\n\"It's just very important that the debt ceiling be raised in a timely fashion so that the United States can pay its bills when and as they come due. That's a critically important thing,\" he said. \"The failure to do that is something that could result in severe reactions, severe damage to the economy and to the financial markets ... no one should assume that the Fed or anyone else can protect the markets or the economy in the event of a failure.\"\nA dead Elm tree is removed on the West Front of the Capitol in Washington, Friday, Sept. 10, 2021. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)ASSOCIATED PRESS\nAmid the standoff, the Office of Management and Budget began warning federal agencies last week to prepare for a potential government shutdown. The reminder served as a standard warning one week out from Congress's deadline to reach an agreement to at least temporarily continue funding the government.\nThough leaders of both political parties have agreed that a continuing resolution to avoid the shutdown at the end of the month is needed, the ongoing tension over raising the debt limit has served as a potential roadblock in this effort.\n\"We still expect Congress to avert a partial government shutdown at the start of October. Republicans won’t vote for the current continuing resolution being touted by the Democratic leadership, which also includes a new debt ceiling suspension,\" wrote Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist for Capital Economics, in a note Friday. \"But we expect a Plan B to emerge next week with the latter stripped out, which Republicans will support.\"\n\"The bigger issue is that there doesn’t appear to be an easy path to raising the debt ceiling by mid-October, which is when estimates suggest the Treasury’s will exhaust the 'extraordinary measures it is currently using to keep the lights on,\" he added.\nInvestors have also grown jittery as the debates wore on, with stocks posting their worst day since May last week amid a confluence of concerns that also included debt concerns with China Evergrande.\nMany strategists, however, have suggested market participants need not be overly concerned about the impacts of a potential government shutdown.\n\"Historically, we've seen that government shutdowns tend to be short-lived,\" Jordan Jackson, JPMorgan Asset Management global market strategist, told Yahoo Finance Live on Friday. \"We also know that for those non-essential federal employees, they do get furlough pay as well.\"\n\"If it lasts more than 30 days, it's certainly going to have a bigger impact on the economy. But generally speaking, these shutdowns tend to be short-lived and markets — while they may correct in the short-term — they do sort of continue to grind higher,\" he added. \"I think it's certainly a risk in terms of a short-term mini correction there. But again, with all the liquidity out there, I think any sort of blip in the markets will be short-lived.\"\nHistorical equity performance during and immediately following a government shutdown has also tended to point to a muted market impact.\n\"In the 14 government shutdowns since 1980, the S&P 500 generated median returns of -0.1% on the dates of budget authority expiration, 0.1% during the shutdown periods, and 0.3% on the dates of resolution,\" David Kostin, Goldman Sachs chief equity strategist, wrote in a note published on Sept. 21.\n\"One notable exception was the most recent federal shutdown in December 2018, when the S&P 500 fell 2% on the spending authority expiration date,\" he added. \"However, this decline was likely driven primarily by investor concerns about Fed tightening.\"\nKostin also noted that the typical government shutdown since 1980 has only lasted three days before ultimately being resolved. More recent shutdowns have lasted several times longer, however, with the duration of the four most recent federal shutdowns averaging 18 days, Kostin said.\nConsumer confidence\nOn the economic data front, one of the most closely watched new pieces of data will be on consumer confidence.\nThe Conference Board is set to release its September consumer confidence index Tuesday morning. Economists expect the index to tick up only slightly compared to August, with consumers' views on the coronavirus and rising prices stabilizing near the lowest level since February.\nSpecifically, consensus economists are looking for the index to rise to 115.0 in September after dropping to 113.8 in August. During the last monthly report, consumers' assessments of current business and labor market conditions both eased, and expectations for the next six months out also deteriorated.\n\"Consumer confidence fell to a six-month low in August, due to concerns around the Delta variant and inflation,\" wrote Bank of America economist Michelle Meyer in a note on Friday. \"We think these concerns largely remained in September.\"\nAt the time, Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at the Conference Board, said it was still \"too soon to conclude\" whether decline in consumer confidence would \"result in consumers significantly curtailing their spending in the months ahead.\"\nThe latest spending data has also been equivocal. The Commerce Department's latest report showed retail sales rose 0.7% in August after declining in July. However, the categories posting the biggest declines were areas like e-commerce shops and grocery stores, suggesting consumer behavior was shifting back toward stay-in-place trends and away from in-person events like restaurant dining amid the latest wave of the coronavirus.\nEconomic calendar\n\nMonday: Durable goods orders, August preliminary (0.6% expected, -0.1% in July); Durable goods excluding transportation, August preliminary (0.5% expected, 0.8% in July); Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, August preliminary (0.3% expected, 0.1% in July); Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, August preliminary (0.9% in July); Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index, September (11.0 expected, 9.0 in July)\nTuesday: Advance goods trade balance, August (-$87.0 billion expected, -$86.4 billion in July); Wholesale inventories, month-over-month, August preliminary (0.6% in July); Retail inventories, month-over-month, August (0.4% in July); FHFA House Price Index, month-over-month, July (1.5% expected, 1.6% in July); S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index, month-over-month, July (1.62% expected, 1.77% in June); S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index, month-over-month, July (20.1% expected, 19.08% in June); Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, September (114.2 expected, 113.8 in August); Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, September (9 in August)\nWednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, week ended September 24 (4.9% during prior month); Pending home sales, month-over-month, August (1.0% expected, -1.8% in July)\nThursday: Initial jobless claims, week ended September 25 (320,000 expected, 351,000 during prior week); Continuing claims, week ended September 18 (2.845 million during prior week); GDP annualized, quarter-over-quarter, second-quarter third estimate (6.7% expected, 6.6% in prior estimate); Personal consumption, second-quarter third estimate (11.9% in prior estimate); Core personal consumption expenditures, second quarter third estimate (6.1% in prior estimate); MNI Chicago PMI, September (65.0 expected, 66.8 in August)\nFriday: Personal income, August (0.2% expected, 1.1% in July); Personal spending, August (0.7% expected, 0.3% in July); Personal consumption expenditures core deflator, month-over-over, August (0.2% expected, 0.3% in July); Personal consumption expenditures core deflator, year-over-year, August (3.6% expected, 3.6% in July); Markit manufacturing PMI, September final (60.5 in prior estimate); Construction spending, month-over-month, August (0.3% expected, 0.3% in July); University of Michigan sentiment, September final (71.0 expected, 71.0 in prior print); ISM Manufacturing, September (59.5 expected, 59.9 in August)\n\nEarnings calendar\n\nMonday: Aurora Cannabis (ACB) after market close\nTuesday: Micron Technology (MU) after market close.\nWednesday: No notable reports scheduled for release\nThursday: CarMax (KMX), Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) before market open; Jefferies (JEF) after market close\nFriday: No notable reports scheduled for releas","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY.AU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1070,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":866321949,"gmtCreate":1632737101781,"gmtModify":1632798207867,"author":{"id":"3582059706803344","authorId":"3582059706803344","name":"YJ12","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/053b18ef264ba18845e0b6ec9727bcb6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582059706803344","idStr":"3582059706803344"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"hello","listText":"hello","text":"hello","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/866321949","repostId":"2170488786","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2170488786","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632685409,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2170488786?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-27 03:43","market":"other","language":"en","title":"Debt ceiling debates in Congress, consumer confidence: What to know this week<blockquote>国会债务上限辩论、消费者信心：本周需要了解什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2170488786","media":"Yahoo Finance","summary":"Investors this week are set to closely monitor developments in Washington, D.C., as lawmakers race t","content":"<p><div> Investors this week are set to closely monitor developments in Washington, D.C., as lawmakers race to pass legislation to avoid a government shutdown by the end of the month and debate raising the ...</p><p><blockquote><div>投资者本周将密切关注华盛顿特区的事态发展，因为立法者们竞相通过立法，以避免政府在本月底关门，并就提高……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/debt-ceiling-debates-in-congress-consumer-confidence-what-to-know-this-week-194329712.html\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/debt-ceiling-debates-in-congress-consumer-confidence-what-to-know-this-week-194329712.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"yahoofinance_au","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Debt ceiling debates in Congress, consumer confidence: What to know this week<blockquote>国会债务上限辩论、消费者信心：本周需要了解什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDebt ceiling debates in Congress, consumer confidence: What to know this week<blockquote>国会债务上限辩论、消费者信心：本周需要了解什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Yahoo Finance</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-27 03:43</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Investors this week are set to closely monitor developments in Washington, D.C., as lawmakers race to pass legislation to avoid a government shutdown by the end of the month and debate raising the ...</p><p><blockquote><div>投资者本周将密切关注华盛顿特区的事态发展，因为立法者们竞相通过立法，以避免政府在本月底关门，并就提高……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/debt-ceiling-debates-in-congress-consumer-confidence-what-to-know-this-week-194329712.html\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/debt-ceiling-debates-in-congress-consumer-confidence-what-to-know-this-week-194329712.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/debt-ceiling-debates-in-congress-consumer-confidence-what-to-know-this-week-194329712.html\">Yahoo Finance</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7e749e88d2580d292ffc6ae18d03b65","relate_stocks":{"SPY.AU":"SPDR® S&P 500® ETF Trust"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/debt-ceiling-debates-in-congress-consumer-confidence-what-to-know-this-week-194329712.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2170488786","content_text":"Investors this week are set to closely monitor developments in Washington, D.C., as lawmakers race to pass legislation to avoid a government shutdown by the end of the month and debate raising the debt ceiling. Elsewhere, economic data on consumer confidence is also due for release.\nThe Senate is expected to vote Monday on a procedural motion over the legislation passed by the House of Representatives last week. That bill included a plan to temporarily fund the government through early December, and came alongside a measure to raise the government debt ceiling through December 2022.\nThe latter point has been an area of contention for Senate Republicans, who are only narrowly outnumbered by Democratic lawmakers in both chambers and who have threatened to block the bill in its current form.\nSenate Republicans including Minority Leader Mitch McConnell have suggested that Democratic lawmakers should use the budget reconciliation process to raise the debt ceiling without Republican support. McConnell has, however, supported a short-term government funding bill that excludes a debt ceiling suspension.\n\"If they [the Democrats] want to tax, borrow and spend historic sums of money without our input, they’ll have to raise the debt limit without our help. This is the reality,” McConnell said on the Senate floor last week.\nDemocratic lawmakers, for their part, have called for the move to raise the debt limit be bipartisan to prevent the government from defaulting on its obligations. The Treasury Department has warned that the U.S. could default on its debts as soon as October in absence of congressional action.\n\"The U.S. has always paid its bills on time, but the overwhelming consensus among economists and Treasury officials of both parties is that failing to raise the debt limit would produce widespread economic catastrophe,\" Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen wrote in an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal last week.\nFederal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also warned of the consequences of a failure to raise the debt ceiling during his post-FOMC meeting press conference last week.\n\"It's just very important that the debt ceiling be raised in a timely fashion so that the United States can pay its bills when and as they come due. That's a critically important thing,\" he said. \"The failure to do that is something that could result in severe reactions, severe damage to the economy and to the financial markets ... no one should assume that the Fed or anyone else can protect the markets or the economy in the event of a failure.\"\nA dead Elm tree is removed on the West Front of the Capitol in Washington, Friday, Sept. 10, 2021. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)ASSOCIATED PRESS\nAmid the standoff, the Office of Management and Budget began warning federal agencies last week to prepare for a potential government shutdown. The reminder served as a standard warning one week out from Congress's deadline to reach an agreement to at least temporarily continue funding the government.\nThough leaders of both political parties have agreed that a continuing resolution to avoid the shutdown at the end of the month is needed, the ongoing tension over raising the debt limit has served as a potential roadblock in this effort.\n\"We still expect Congress to avert a partial government shutdown at the start of October. Republicans won’t vote for the current continuing resolution being touted by the Democratic leadership, which also includes a new debt ceiling suspension,\" wrote Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist for Capital Economics, in a note Friday. \"But we expect a Plan B to emerge next week with the latter stripped out, which Republicans will support.\"\n\"The bigger issue is that there doesn’t appear to be an easy path to raising the debt ceiling by mid-October, which is when estimates suggest the Treasury’s will exhaust the 'extraordinary measures it is currently using to keep the lights on,\" he added.\nInvestors have also grown jittery as the debates wore on, with stocks posting their worst day since May last week amid a confluence of concerns that also included debt concerns with China Evergrande.\nMany strategists, however, have suggested market participants need not be overly concerned about the impacts of a potential government shutdown.\n\"Historically, we've seen that government shutdowns tend to be short-lived,\" Jordan Jackson, JPMorgan Asset Management global market strategist, told Yahoo Finance Live on Friday. \"We also know that for those non-essential federal employees, they do get furlough pay as well.\"\n\"If it lasts more than 30 days, it's certainly going to have a bigger impact on the economy. But generally speaking, these shutdowns tend to be short-lived and markets — while they may correct in the short-term — they do sort of continue to grind higher,\" he added. \"I think it's certainly a risk in terms of a short-term mini correction there. But again, with all the liquidity out there, I think any sort of blip in the markets will be short-lived.\"\nHistorical equity performance during and immediately following a government shutdown has also tended to point to a muted market impact.\n\"In the 14 government shutdowns since 1980, the S&P 500 generated median returns of -0.1% on the dates of budget authority expiration, 0.1% during the shutdown periods, and 0.3% on the dates of resolution,\" David Kostin, Goldman Sachs chief equity strategist, wrote in a note published on Sept. 21.\n\"One notable exception was the most recent federal shutdown in December 2018, when the S&P 500 fell 2% on the spending authority expiration date,\" he added. \"However, this decline was likely driven primarily by investor concerns about Fed tightening.\"\nKostin also noted that the typical government shutdown since 1980 has only lasted three days before ultimately being resolved. More recent shutdowns have lasted several times longer, however, with the duration of the four most recent federal shutdowns averaging 18 days, Kostin said.\nConsumer confidence\nOn the economic data front, one of the most closely watched new pieces of data will be on consumer confidence.\nThe Conference Board is set to release its September consumer confidence index Tuesday morning. Economists expect the index to tick up only slightly compared to August, with consumers' views on the coronavirus and rising prices stabilizing near the lowest level since February.\nSpecifically, consensus economists are looking for the index to rise to 115.0 in September after dropping to 113.8 in August. During the last monthly report, consumers' assessments of current business and labor market conditions both eased, and expectations for the next six months out also deteriorated.\n\"Consumer confidence fell to a six-month low in August, due to concerns around the Delta variant and inflation,\" wrote Bank of America economist Michelle Meyer in a note on Friday. \"We think these concerns largely remained in September.\"\nAt the time, Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at the Conference Board, said it was still \"too soon to conclude\" whether decline in consumer confidence would \"result in consumers significantly curtailing their spending in the months ahead.\"\nThe latest spending data has also been equivocal. The Commerce Department's latest report showed retail sales rose 0.7% in August after declining in July. However, the categories posting the biggest declines were areas like e-commerce shops and grocery stores, suggesting consumer behavior was shifting back toward stay-in-place trends and away from in-person events like restaurant dining amid the latest wave of the coronavirus.\nEconomic calendar\n\nMonday: Durable goods orders, August preliminary (0.6% expected, -0.1% in July); Durable goods excluding transportation, August preliminary (0.5% expected, 0.8% in July); Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, August preliminary (0.3% expected, 0.1% in July); Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, August preliminary (0.9% in July); Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index, September (11.0 expected, 9.0 in July)\nTuesday: Advance goods trade balance, August (-$87.0 billion expected, -$86.4 billion in July); Wholesale inventories, month-over-month, August preliminary (0.6% in July); Retail inventories, month-over-month, August (0.4% in July); FHFA House Price Index, month-over-month, July (1.5% expected, 1.6% in July); S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index, month-over-month, July (1.62% expected, 1.77% in June); S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index, month-over-month, July (20.1% expected, 19.08% in June); Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, September (114.2 expected, 113.8 in August); Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, September (9 in August)\nWednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, week ended September 24 (4.9% during prior month); Pending home sales, month-over-month, August (1.0% expected, -1.8% in July)\nThursday: Initial jobless claims, week ended September 25 (320,000 expected, 351,000 during prior week); Continuing claims, week ended September 18 (2.845 million during prior week); GDP annualized, quarter-over-quarter, second-quarter third estimate (6.7% expected, 6.6% in prior estimate); Personal consumption, second-quarter third estimate (11.9% in prior estimate); Core personal consumption expenditures, second quarter third estimate (6.1% in prior estimate); MNI Chicago PMI, September (65.0 expected, 66.8 in August)\nFriday: Personal income, August (0.2% expected, 1.1% in July); Personal spending, August (0.7% expected, 0.3% in July); Personal consumption expenditures core deflator, month-over-over, August (0.2% expected, 0.3% in July); Personal consumption expenditures core deflator, year-over-year, August (3.6% expected, 3.6% in July); Markit manufacturing PMI, September final (60.5 in prior estimate); Construction spending, month-over-month, August (0.3% expected, 0.3% in July); University of Michigan sentiment, September final (71.0 expected, 71.0 in prior print); ISM Manufacturing, September (59.5 expected, 59.9 in August)\n\nEarnings calendar\n\nMonday: Aurora Cannabis (ACB) after market close\nTuesday: Micron Technology (MU) after market close.\nWednesday: No notable reports scheduled for release\nThursday: CarMax (KMX), Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) before market open; Jefferies (JEF) after market close\nFriday: No notable reports scheduled for releas","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY.AU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":678,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":868147692,"gmtCreate":1632623735716,"gmtModify":1632650549614,"author":{"id":"3582059706803344","authorId":"3582059706803344","name":"YJ12","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/053b18ef264ba18845e0b6ec9727bcb6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582059706803344","idStr":"3582059706803344"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/868147692","repostId":"2170614164","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":653,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":861431818,"gmtCreate":1632530077834,"gmtModify":1632711755018,"author":{"id":"3582059706803344","authorId":"3582059706803344","name":"YJ12","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/053b18ef264ba18845e0b6ec9727bcb6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582059706803344","idStr":"3582059706803344"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/861431818","repostId":"2170619785","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":617,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":821285019,"gmtCreate":1633747810657,"gmtModify":1633747834007,"author":{"id":"3582059706803344","authorId":"3582059706803344","name":"YJ12","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/053b18ef264ba18845e0b6ec9727bcb6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582059706803344","authorIdStr":"3582059706803344"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821285019","repostId":"1100565546","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100565546","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633734823,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1100565546?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-09 07:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"S&P 500 ends lower after U.S. September jobs miss<blockquote>美国 9 月份就业岗位未达预期后标普500收低</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100565546","media":"Reuters","summary":" - The S&P 500 ended lower on Friday after data showed weaker jobs growth than expected in September, yet investors still expected the Federal Reserve to begin tapering asset purchases this year.Wall Street’s three main indexes were mixed for much of the session before losing ground toward the end. All three indexes posted weekly gains.Comcast Corp tumbled after Wells Fargo cut its price target on the media company, while Charter Communications Inc fell after Wells Fargo downgraded that cable op","content":"<p>(Reuters) - The S&amp;P 500 ended lower on Friday after data showed weaker jobs growth than expected in September, yet investors still expected the Federal Reserve to begin tapering asset purchases this year.</p><p><blockquote>（路透社） - 标普500周五收低，此前数据显示9月就业增长弱于预期，但投资者仍预计美联储今年将开始缩减资产购买规模。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street’s three main indexes were mixed for much of the session before losing ground toward the end. All three indexes posted weekly gains.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街三大股指在盘中的大部分时间里涨跌互现，但在接近尾声时有所回落。这三个指数均出现周涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> Comcast Corp tumbled after Wells Fargo cut its price target on the media company, while Charter Communications Inc fell after Wells Fargo downgraded that cable operator to “underweight” from “overweight”.</p><p><blockquote>康卡斯特公司（Comcast Corp）在富国银行（Wells Fargo）下调了该媒体公司的目标价后暴跌，而特许通信公司（Charter Communications Inc）在富国银行（Wells Fargo）将该有线电视运营商的评级从 “跑赢大盘 ”下调至 “跑输大盘 ”后暴跌。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies were among the biggest drags on the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq.</p><p><blockquote>这两家公司都是标普500和纳斯达克最大的拖累之一。</blockquote></p><p> Real estate and utilities were the poorest performers among 11 S&amp;P 500 sector indexes, down 1.1% and 0.7%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>在11个标普500行业指数中，房地产和公用事业表现最差，分别下跌1.1%和0.7%。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 energy sector index jumped 3.1%, with oil up more than 4% on the week as a global energy crunch has boosted prices to their highest since 2014.</p><p><blockquote>标普500能源行业指数上涨 3.1%，其中油价本周上涨超过 4%，原因是全球能源危机将油价推至 2014 年以来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> Chevron and Exxon Mobil rallied more than 2% and were among the companies giving the S&amp;P 500 the greatest lift.</p><p><blockquote>雪佛龙和埃克森美孚股价上涨超过 2%，是对标普500提振最大的公司之一。</blockquote></p><p> The Labor Department’s nonfarm payrolls report showed the U.S. economy in September created the fewest jobs in nine months as hiring dropped at schools and some businesses were short of workers. The unemployment rate fell to 4.8% from 5.2% in August and average hourly earnings rose 0.6%, which was more than expected.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工部的非农就业报告显示，9月份美国经济创造的就业岗位是九个月来最少的，原因是学校招聘人数下降，一些企业工人短缺。失业率从8月份的5.2%降至4.8%，平均时薪增长0.6%，超出预期。</blockquote></p><p> “I think that the Federal Reserve made it very clear that they don’t need a blockbuster jobs report to taper in November,” said Kathy Lien, Managing Director at BK Asset Management in New York. “I think the Fed remains on track.”</p><p><blockquote>“纽约 BK 资产管理公司董事总经理凯西-连（Kathy Lien）说：”我认为美联储已经非常明确地表示，他们不需要一份重磅就业报告就能在 11 月份缩减规模。“我认为美联储仍在正轨上。”</blockquote></p><p> Futures on the federal funds rate priced in a quarter-point tightening by the Federal Reserve by November or December next year.</p><p><blockquote>联邦基金利率期货定价为美联储明年 11 月或 12 月收紧 25 个基点。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 0.03% to end at 34,746.25 points, while the S&amp;P 500 lost 0.19% to 4,391.35.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数下跌0.03%，收于34,746.25点，标普500指数下跌0.19%，至4,391.35点。</blockquote></p><p> The Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.51% to 14,579.54.</p><p><blockquote>纳斯达克综合指数下跌 0.51%，至 14,579.54 点。</blockquote></p><p> For the week, the S&amp;P 500 rose 0.8%, the Dow added 1.2% and the Nasdaq gained 0.1%.</p><p><blockquote>本周，标普500指数上涨0.8%，道琼斯指数上涨1.2%，纳斯达克指数上涨0.1%。</blockquote></p><p> Third-quarter reporting season kicks off next week, with JPMorgan Chase and other big banks among the first to post results. Investors are focused on global supply chain problems and labor shortages.</p><p><blockquote>第三季度财报季将于下周拉开帷幕，摩根大通和其他大银行将率先发布业绩。投资者关注全球供应链问题和劳动力短缺。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts see Q3 U.S. earnings growth of 30%:</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计美国第三季度盈利增长 30%：</blockquote></p><p> Analysts on average expect S&amp;P 500 earnings per share for the quarter to be up almost 30%, according to Refinitiv.</p><p><blockquote>路孚特表示，分析师平均预计标普500本季度每股收益将增长近 30%。</blockquote></p><p> “I think it’s going to be a dicey earnings season,” warned Liz Young, head of investment strategy at SoFi in New York. “If supply-chain issues are driving up costs, a company with strong pricing power can pass through those rising costs. But you can’t pass through a labor shortage if you can’t find workers to hire.”</p><p><blockquote>“纽约 SoFi 投资策略主管 Liz Young 警告说：”我认为这将是一个充满风险的财报季。“如果供应链问题推高了成本上升，那么一家拥有强大定价权的公司就可以转嫁这些不断上涨的成本。但如果你找不到工人来雇佣，你就无法转嫁劳动力短缺的问题。”</blockquote></p><p> Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.24-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.52-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所下跌发行量与上涨发行量的比例为 1.24 比 1；在纳斯达克，1.52 比 1 的比率有利于下跌者。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 posted 26 new 52-week highs and 3 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 86 new highs and 113 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下 26 个 52 周新高和 3 个新低；纳斯达克综合指数创下86个新高和113个新低。</blockquote></p><p> Volume on U.S. exchanges was 9.2 billion shares, compared with the 11 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所的成交量为92亿股，而过去20个交易日的平均成交量为110亿股。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>S&P 500 ends lower after U.S. September jobs miss<blockquote>美国 9 月份就业岗位未达预期后标普500收低</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS&P 500 ends lower after U.S. September jobs miss<blockquote>美国 9 月份就业岗位未达预期后标普500收低</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-09 07:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Reuters) - The S&amp;P 500 ended lower on Friday after data showed weaker jobs growth than expected in September, yet investors still expected the Federal Reserve to begin tapering asset purchases this year.</p><p><blockquote>（路透社） - 标普500周五收低，此前数据显示9月就业增长弱于预期，但投资者仍预计美联储今年将开始缩减资产购买规模。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street’s three main indexes were mixed for much of the session before losing ground toward the end. All three indexes posted weekly gains.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街三大股指在盘中的大部分时间里涨跌互现，但在接近尾声时有所回落。这三个指数均出现周涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> Comcast Corp tumbled after Wells Fargo cut its price target on the media company, while Charter Communications Inc fell after Wells Fargo downgraded that cable operator to “underweight” from “overweight”.</p><p><blockquote>康卡斯特公司（Comcast Corp）在富国银行（Wells Fargo）下调了该媒体公司的目标价后暴跌，而特许通信公司（Charter Communications Inc）在富国银行（Wells Fargo）将该有线电视运营商的评级从 “跑赢大盘 ”下调至 “跑输大盘 ”后暴跌。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies were among the biggest drags on the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq.</p><p><blockquote>这两家公司都是标普500和纳斯达克最大的拖累之一。</blockquote></p><p> Real estate and utilities were the poorest performers among 11 S&amp;P 500 sector indexes, down 1.1% and 0.7%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>在11个标普500行业指数中，房地产和公用事业表现最差，分别下跌1.1%和0.7%。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 energy sector index jumped 3.1%, with oil up more than 4% on the week as a global energy crunch has boosted prices to their highest since 2014.</p><p><blockquote>标普500能源行业指数上涨 3.1%，其中油价本周上涨超过 4%，原因是全球能源危机将油价推至 2014 年以来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> Chevron and Exxon Mobil rallied more than 2% and were among the companies giving the S&amp;P 500 the greatest lift.</p><p><blockquote>雪佛龙和埃克森美孚股价上涨超过 2%，是对标普500提振最大的公司之一。</blockquote></p><p> The Labor Department’s nonfarm payrolls report showed the U.S. economy in September created the fewest jobs in nine months as hiring dropped at schools and some businesses were short of workers. The unemployment rate fell to 4.8% from 5.2% in August and average hourly earnings rose 0.6%, which was more than expected.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工部的非农就业报告显示，9月份美国经济创造的就业岗位是九个月来最少的，原因是学校招聘人数下降，一些企业工人短缺。失业率从8月份的5.2%降至4.8%，平均时薪增长0.6%，超出预期。</blockquote></p><p> “I think that the Federal Reserve made it very clear that they don’t need a blockbuster jobs report to taper in November,” said Kathy Lien, Managing Director at BK Asset Management in New York. “I think the Fed remains on track.”</p><p><blockquote>“纽约 BK 资产管理公司董事总经理凯西-连（Kathy Lien）说：”我认为美联储已经非常明确地表示，他们不需要一份重磅就业报告就能在 11 月份缩减规模。“我认为美联储仍在正轨上。”</blockquote></p><p> Futures on the federal funds rate priced in a quarter-point tightening by the Federal Reserve by November or December next year.</p><p><blockquote>联邦基金利率期货定价为美联储明年 11 月或 12 月收紧 25 个基点。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 0.03% to end at 34,746.25 points, while the S&amp;P 500 lost 0.19% to 4,391.35.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数下跌0.03%，收于34,746.25点，标普500指数下跌0.19%，至4,391.35点。</blockquote></p><p> The Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.51% to 14,579.54.</p><p><blockquote>纳斯达克综合指数下跌 0.51%，至 14,579.54 点。</blockquote></p><p> For the week, the S&amp;P 500 rose 0.8%, the Dow added 1.2% and the Nasdaq gained 0.1%.</p><p><blockquote>本周，标普500指数上涨0.8%，道琼斯指数上涨1.2%，纳斯达克指数上涨0.1%。</blockquote></p><p> Third-quarter reporting season kicks off next week, with JPMorgan Chase and other big banks among the first to post results. Investors are focused on global supply chain problems and labor shortages.</p><p><blockquote>第三季度财报季将于下周拉开帷幕，摩根大通和其他大银行将率先发布业绩。投资者关注全球供应链问题和劳动力短缺。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts see Q3 U.S. earnings growth of 30%:</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计美国第三季度盈利增长 30%：</blockquote></p><p> Analysts on average expect S&amp;P 500 earnings per share for the quarter to be up almost 30%, according to Refinitiv.</p><p><blockquote>路孚特表示，分析师平均预计标普500本季度每股收益将增长近 30%。</blockquote></p><p> “I think it’s going to be a dicey earnings season,” warned Liz Young, head of investment strategy at SoFi in New York. “If supply-chain issues are driving up costs, a company with strong pricing power can pass through those rising costs. But you can’t pass through a labor shortage if you can’t find workers to hire.”</p><p><blockquote>“纽约 SoFi 投资策略主管 Liz Young 警告说：”我认为这将是一个充满风险的财报季。“如果供应链问题推高了成本上升，那么一家拥有强大定价权的公司就可以转嫁这些不断上涨的成本。但如果你找不到工人来雇佣，你就无法转嫁劳动力短缺的问题。”</blockquote></p><p> Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.24-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.52-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所下跌发行量与上涨发行量的比例为 1.24 比 1；在纳斯达克，1.52 比 1 的比率有利于下跌者。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 posted 26 new 52-week highs and 3 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 86 new highs and 113 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下 26 个 52 周新高和 3 个新低；纳斯达克综合指数创下86个新高和113个新低。</blockquote></p><p> Volume on U.S. exchanges was 9.2 billion shares, compared with the 11 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所的成交量为92亿股，而过去20个交易日的平均成交量为110亿股。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks/us-stocks-sp-500-ends-lower-after-u-s-september-jobs-miss-idUSL1N2R42C9\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks/us-stocks-sp-500-ends-lower-after-u-s-september-jobs-miss-idUSL1N2R42C9","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100565546","content_text":"(Reuters) - The S&P 500 ended lower on Friday after data showed weaker jobs growth than expected in September, yet investors still expected the Federal Reserve to begin tapering asset purchases this year.\nWall Street’s three main indexes were mixed for much of the session before losing ground toward the end. All three indexes posted weekly gains.\nComcast Corp tumbled after Wells Fargo cut its price target on the media company, while Charter Communications Inc fell after Wells Fargo downgraded that cable operator to “underweight” from “overweight”.\nBoth companies were among the biggest drags on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.\nReal estate and utilities were the poorest performers among 11 S&P 500 sector indexes, down 1.1% and 0.7%, respectively.\nThe S&P 500 energy sector index jumped 3.1%, with oil up more than 4% on the week as a global energy crunch has boosted prices to their highest since 2014.\nChevron and Exxon Mobil rallied more than 2% and were among the companies giving the S&P 500 the greatest lift.\nThe Labor Department’s nonfarm payrolls report showed the U.S. economy in September created the fewest jobs in nine months as hiring dropped at schools and some businesses were short of workers. The unemployment rate fell to 4.8% from 5.2% in August and average hourly earnings rose 0.6%, which was more than expected.\n“I think that the Federal Reserve made it very clear that they don’t need a blockbuster jobs report to taper in November,” said Kathy Lien, Managing Director at BK Asset Management in New York. “I think the Fed remains on track.”\nFutures on the federal funds rate priced in a quarter-point tightening by the Federal Reserve by November or December next year.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 0.03% to end at 34,746.25 points, while the S&P 500 lost 0.19% to 4,391.35.\nThe Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.51% to 14,579.54.\nFor the week, the S&P 500 rose 0.8%, the Dow added 1.2% and the Nasdaq gained 0.1%.\nThird-quarter reporting season kicks off next week, with JPMorgan Chase and other big banks among the first to post results. Investors are focused on global supply chain problems and labor shortages.\nAnalysts see Q3 U.S. earnings growth of 30%:\nAnalysts on average expect S&P 500 earnings per share for the quarter to be up almost 30%, according to Refinitiv.\n“I think it’s going to be a dicey earnings season,” warned Liz Young, head of investment strategy at SoFi in New York. “If supply-chain issues are driving up costs, a company with strong pricing power can pass through those rising costs. But you can’t pass through a labor shortage if you can’t find workers to hire.”\nDeclining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.24-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.52-to-1 ratio favored decliners.\nThe S&P 500 posted 26 new 52-week highs and 3 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 86 new highs and 113 new lows.\nVolume on U.S. exchanges was 9.2 billion shares, compared with the 11 billion average over the last 20 trading days.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2791,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":828768632,"gmtCreate":1633947773173,"gmtModify":1633947773255,"author":{"id":"3582059706803344","authorId":"3582059706803344","name":"YJ12","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/053b18ef264ba18845e0b6ec9727bcb6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582059706803344","authorIdStr":"3582059706803344"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/828768632","repostId":"2174971913","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4675,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":113364755,"gmtCreate":1622594938977,"gmtModify":1634100146514,"author":{"id":"3582059706803344","authorId":"3582059706803344","name":"YJ12","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/053b18ef264ba18845e0b6ec9727bcb6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582059706803344","authorIdStr":"3582059706803344"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Pls like and comments thank you&nbsp;","listText":"Pls like and comments thank you&nbsp;","text":"Pls like and comments thank you","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/113364755","repostId":"1106176005","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1106176005","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622588821,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1106176005?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-02 07:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"S&P 500 dips, as healthcare weighs; Dow ends higher<blockquote>随着医疗保健的压力，标普500下跌；道琼斯指数收高</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106176005","media":"Reuters","summary":"The S&P 500dipped on Tuesday, with declines in healthcare and tech shares countered by energy and financial gains, as investors weighed the latest U.S. economic data for signs of a rebound and rising inflation.The S&P 500 financial sectorhit a record high, while expected growth in fuel demand boosted oil prices and helped lift the energy sector3.9%, its biggest $one$-day gain in nearly four months. The heavyweight tech sectorfell while the healthcare sectorwas dragged down by a weak profit forec","content":"<p>The S&amp;P 500(.SPX)dipped on Tuesday, with declines in healthcare and tech shares countered by energy and financial gains, as investors weighed the latest U.S. economic data for signs of a rebound and rising inflation.</p><p><blockquote>标普500 (.SPX) 周二下跌，医疗保健和科技股的下跌被能源和金融股的上涨所抵消，投资者权衡最新的美国经济数据是否有反弹和通胀上升的迹象。</blockquote></p><p>The S&amp;P 500 financial sector(.SPSY)hit a record high, while expected growth in fuel demand boosted oil prices and helped lift the energy sector(.SPNY)3.9%, its biggest <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a>-day gain in nearly four months. The heavyweight tech sector(.SPLRCT)fell while the healthcare sector(.SPXHC)was dragged down by a weak profit forecast from <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABT\">Abbott Laboratories</a>(ABT.N).</p><p><blockquote>标普500金融业 (.SPSY) 创下历史新高，而燃料需求的预期增长提振了油价，并帮助能源业 (.SPNY) 上涨 3.9%，成为其最大的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">一</a>-近四个月的日增。重量级科技板块 (.SPLRCT) 下跌，而医疗保健板块 (.SPXHC) 则受到利润预测疲软的拖累<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABT\">雅培实验室</a>（ABT.N）。</blockquote></p><p>Data showed U.S.manufacturing activity pickedup in May as pent-up demand in a reopening economy boosted orders. But unfinished work piled up because of shortages of raw materials and labor.</p><p><blockquote>数据显示，由于经济重新开放中被压抑的需求提振了订单，美国 5 月份制造业活动有所回升。但由于原材料和劳动力短缺，未完成的工作堆积如山。</blockquote></p><p>\"People came back from a holiday weekend convinced that the economy is recovering nicely and that any inflation that we might be seeing in labor and other costs is temporary,\" Peter Tuz, president of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCF\">Chase</a> Investment Counsel in Charlottesville, Virginia.</p><p><blockquote>“人们从周末假期回来后确信经济复苏良好，我们可能在劳动力和其他成本方面看到的任何通货膨胀都是暂时的，”公司总裁彼得·图兹 (Peter Tuz)<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCF\">追逐</a>弗吉尼亚州夏洛茨维尔的投资顾问。</blockquote></p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI)rose 45.86 points, or 0.13%, to 34,575.31; the S&amp;P 500(.SPX)lost 2.07 points, or 0.05%, at 4,202.04; and the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a> Composite(.IXIC)dropped 12.26 points, or 0.09%, to 13,736.48.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数(.DJI)上涨45.86点，涨幅0.13%，至34,575.31点；标普500 (.SPX) 下跌 2.07 点，或 0.05%，至 4,202.04 点；和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">纳斯达克</a>综合指数(.IXIC)下跌12.26点，跌幅0.09%，至13,736.48点。</blockquote></p><p>Along with sharp gains for financials and energy, the small-cap Russell 2000(.RUT)rose 1.1% on Tuesday, underscoring strength for segments of the stock market expected to do particularly well in an expanding economy.</p><p><blockquote>随着金融和能源股的大幅上涨，小盘股罗素 2000 指数 (.RUT) 周二上涨 1.1%，凸显了预计在经济扩张中表现尤为出色的股市板块的走强。</blockquote></p><p>While the S&amp;P 500 remains less than 1% of its record high after four straight months of gains, investors are worried about whether rising inflation could hit equity prices.</p><p><blockquote>尽管标普500在连续四个月上涨后仍不到历史高点的1%，但投资者担心通胀上升是否会打击股价。</blockquote></p><p>\"We have supply chain issues, delays, price increases, pricing pressures in general, we have got employers saying they have got difficulty sourcing labor,\" said Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IVZ\">Invesco</a> in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NWY\">New York</a>.</p><p><blockquote>首席全球市场策略师克里斯蒂娜·胡珀 (Kristina Hooper) 表示：“我们面临供应链问题、延误、价格上涨、普遍定价压力，雇主表示他们在寻找劳动力方面遇到困难。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IVZ\">景顺</a>在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NWY\">纽约</a>.</blockquote></p><p>\"So this is a microcosm of what we are already hearing about and seeing in the overall economy and it's just a reminder that inflation remains a concern.\"</p><p><blockquote>“因此，这是我们在整体经济中已经听到和看到的一个缩影，它只是提醒人们通货膨胀仍然是一个令人担忧的问题。”</blockquote></p><p>A Wall St. sign is seen near the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYRT\">New York</a> Stock Exchange (NYSE) in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NGD\">New</a> York <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHCO\">City</a>, U.S., May 4, 2021. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo</p><p><blockquote>附近可以看到华尔街的标志<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYRT\">纽约</a>纽约证券交易所<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NGD\">新的</a>约克<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHCO\">城市</a>，美国，2021年5月4日。路透社/布伦丹·麦克德米德/资料照片</blockquote></p><p>Stock markets on Friday brushed off a surge inkey inflation readingsfor April following reassurances from Federal Reserve officials that the central bank’s ultra-loose monetary policy would remain in place.</p><p><blockquote>在美联储官员保证美联储将继续实施超宽松货币政策后，周五股市与 4 月份关键通胀数据的飙升擦肩而过。</blockquote></p><p>Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari and Fed Vice Chair for supervision Randal Quarles on Tuesday reiterated the view that higher prices would be transitory.</p><p><blockquote>明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行行长尼尔·卡什卡里和美联储负责监管的副主席兰德尔·夸尔斯周二重申，价格上涨将是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p>This week's focus will be on a raft of economic data, culminating with U.S. payrolls due on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>本周的焦点将是一系列经济数据，最终将于周五公布的美国就业数据。</blockquote></p><p>Abbott Labs shares fell 9.3% after the company cut itsfull-year 2021 profit forecast, citing expectations for a sharp decline in revenue from its COVID-19 tests as more Americans get vaccinated. Shares of other test makers also fell.</p><p><blockquote>雅培实验室下调了 2021 年全年利润预测，理由是随着越来越多的美国人接种疫苗，预计其 COVID-19 检测收入将大幅下降，该公司股价下跌 9.3%。其他测试制造商的股价也下跌。</blockquote></p><p>Cloudera Inc(CLDR.N)shares jumped 23.9% after private equity firms KKR &amp; Co(KKR.N)and Clayton Dubilier &amp; Rice LLCagreed to take the data analytics firm private.</p><p><blockquote>在私募股权公司 KKR &amp; Co (KKR.N) 和 Clayton Dubilier &amp; Rice LLC 同意将数据分析公司私有化后，Cloudera Inc (CLDR.N) 股价上涨 23.9%。</blockquote></p><p>A group of“meme stocks” extended gainsfrom the previous week, with shares of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Entertainment</a> Holdings Inc(AMC.N)up 22.7% after the movie theater chain said it sold $230 million of its stock.</p><p><blockquote>一批 “模因股 ”延续了前一周的涨幅，其中<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC院线</a>Holdings Inc (AMC.N) 上涨 22.7%，此前这家连锁影院表示出售了价值 2.3 亿美元的股票。</blockquote></p><p>Advancing issues outnumbered decliners on the NYSE by a 2.54-to-1 ratio; on <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a>, a 1.79-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所上涨股票的数量比下跌股票的数量多 2.54 比 1；在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">纳斯达克</a>1.79比1的比率有利于进步人士。</blockquote></p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 73 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 168 new highs and 25 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下73个52周新高，没有新低；纳斯达克综合指数创下168个新高和25个新低。</blockquote></p><p>About 10.7 billion shares changed hands in U.S. exchanges, compared with the 10.5 billion daily average over the last 20 sessions.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所约有 107 亿股股票易手，而过去 20 个交易日的日均成交量为 105 亿股。</blockquote></p><p><b>Here are company's financial statements：</b></p><p><blockquote><b>以下是公司的财务报表：</b></blockquote></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1184181912\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Zoom reports blowout earnings but warns of a coming slowdown</b></a></p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1184181912\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Zoom 报告盈利井喷，但警告即将放缓</b></a></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>S&P 500 dips, as healthcare weighs; Dow ends higher<blockquote>随着医疗保健的压力，标普500下跌；道琼斯指数收高</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; 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color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS&P 500 dips, as healthcare weighs; Dow ends higher<blockquote>随着医疗保健的压力，标普500下跌；道琼斯指数收高</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-02 07:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500(.SPX)dipped on Tuesday, with declines in healthcare and tech shares countered by energy and financial gains, as investors weighed the latest U.S. economic data for signs of a rebound and rising inflation.</p><p><blockquote>标普500 (.SPX) 周二下跌，医疗保健和科技股的下跌被能源和金融股的上涨所抵消，投资者权衡最新的美国经济数据是否有反弹和通胀上升的迹象。</blockquote></p><p>The S&amp;P 500 financial sector(.SPSY)hit a record high, while expected growth in fuel demand boosted oil prices and helped lift the energy sector(.SPNY)3.9%, its biggest <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a>-day gain in nearly four months. The heavyweight tech sector(.SPLRCT)fell while the healthcare sector(.SPXHC)was dragged down by a weak profit forecast from <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABT\">Abbott Laboratories</a>(ABT.N).</p><p><blockquote>标普500金融业 (.SPSY) 创下历史新高，而燃料需求的预期增长提振了油价，并帮助能源业 (.SPNY) 上涨 3.9%，成为其最大的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">一</a>-近四个月的日增。重量级科技板块 (.SPLRCT) 下跌，而医疗保健板块 (.SPXHC) 则受到利润预测疲软的拖累<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABT\">雅培实验室</a>（ABT.N）。</blockquote></p><p>Data showed U.S.manufacturing activity pickedup in May as pent-up demand in a reopening economy boosted orders. But unfinished work piled up because of shortages of raw materials and labor.</p><p><blockquote>数据显示，由于经济重新开放中被压抑的需求提振了订单，美国 5 月份制造业活动有所回升。但由于原材料和劳动力短缺，未完成的工作堆积如山。</blockquote></p><p>\"People came back from a holiday weekend convinced that the economy is recovering nicely and that any inflation that we might be seeing in labor and other costs is temporary,\" Peter Tuz, president of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCF\">Chase</a> Investment Counsel in Charlottesville, Virginia.</p><p><blockquote>“人们从周末假期回来后确信经济复苏良好，我们可能在劳动力和其他成本方面看到的任何通货膨胀都是暂时的，”公司总裁彼得·图兹 (Peter Tuz)<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCF\">追逐</a>弗吉尼亚州夏洛茨维尔的投资顾问。</blockquote></p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI)rose 45.86 points, or 0.13%, to 34,575.31; the S&amp;P 500(.SPX)lost 2.07 points, or 0.05%, at 4,202.04; and the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a> Composite(.IXIC)dropped 12.26 points, or 0.09%, to 13,736.48.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数(.DJI)上涨45.86点，涨幅0.13%，至34,575.31点；标普500 (.SPX) 下跌 2.07 点，或 0.05%，至 4,202.04 点；和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">纳斯达克</a>综合指数(.IXIC)下跌12.26点，跌幅0.09%，至13,736.48点。</blockquote></p><p>Along with sharp gains for financials and energy, the small-cap Russell 2000(.RUT)rose 1.1% on Tuesday, underscoring strength for segments of the stock market expected to do particularly well in an expanding economy.</p><p><blockquote>随着金融和能源股的大幅上涨，小盘股罗素 2000 指数 (.RUT) 周二上涨 1.1%，凸显了预计在经济扩张中表现尤为出色的股市板块的走强。</blockquote></p><p>While the S&amp;P 500 remains less than 1% of its record high after four straight months of gains, investors are worried about whether rising inflation could hit equity prices.</p><p><blockquote>尽管标普500在连续四个月上涨后仍不到历史高点的1%，但投资者担心通胀上升是否会打击股价。</blockquote></p><p>\"We have supply chain issues, delays, price increases, pricing pressures in general, we have got employers saying they have got difficulty sourcing labor,\" said Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IVZ\">Invesco</a> in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NWY\">New York</a>.</p><p><blockquote>首席全球市场策略师克里斯蒂娜·胡珀 (Kristina Hooper) 表示：“我们面临供应链问题、延误、价格上涨、普遍定价压力，雇主表示他们在寻找劳动力方面遇到困难。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IVZ\">景顺</a>在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NWY\">纽约</a>.</blockquote></p><p>\"So this is a microcosm of what we are already hearing about and seeing in the overall economy and it's just a reminder that inflation remains a concern.\"</p><p><blockquote>“因此，这是我们在整体经济中已经听到和看到的一个缩影，它只是提醒人们通货膨胀仍然是一个令人担忧的问题。”</blockquote></p><p>A Wall St. sign is seen near the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYRT\">New York</a> Stock Exchange (NYSE) in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NGD\">New</a> York <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHCO\">City</a>, U.S., May 4, 2021. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo</p><p><blockquote>附近可以看到华尔街的标志<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYRT\">纽约</a>纽约证券交易所<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NGD\">新的</a>约克<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHCO\">城市</a>，美国，2021年5月4日。路透社/布伦丹·麦克德米德/资料照片</blockquote></p><p>Stock markets on Friday brushed off a surge inkey inflation readingsfor April following reassurances from Federal Reserve officials that the central bank’s ultra-loose monetary policy would remain in place.</p><p><blockquote>在美联储官员保证美联储将继续实施超宽松货币政策后，周五股市与 4 月份关键通胀数据的飙升擦肩而过。</blockquote></p><p>Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari and Fed Vice Chair for supervision Randal Quarles on Tuesday reiterated the view that higher prices would be transitory.</p><p><blockquote>明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行行长尼尔·卡什卡里和美联储负责监管的副主席兰德尔·夸尔斯周二重申，价格上涨将是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p>This week's focus will be on a raft of economic data, culminating with U.S. payrolls due on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>本周的焦点将是一系列经济数据，最终将于周五公布的美国就业数据。</blockquote></p><p>Abbott Labs shares fell 9.3% after the company cut itsfull-year 2021 profit forecast, citing expectations for a sharp decline in revenue from its COVID-19 tests as more Americans get vaccinated. Shares of other test makers also fell.</p><p><blockquote>雅培实验室下调了 2021 年全年利润预测，理由是随着越来越多的美国人接种疫苗，预计其 COVID-19 检测收入将大幅下降，该公司股价下跌 9.3%。其他测试制造商的股价也下跌。</blockquote></p><p>Cloudera Inc(CLDR.N)shares jumped 23.9% after private equity firms KKR &amp; Co(KKR.N)and Clayton Dubilier &amp; Rice LLCagreed to take the data analytics firm private.</p><p><blockquote>在私募股权公司 KKR &amp; Co (KKR.N) 和 Clayton Dubilier &amp; Rice LLC 同意将数据分析公司私有化后，Cloudera Inc (CLDR.N) 股价上涨 23.9%。</blockquote></p><p>A group of“meme stocks” extended gainsfrom the previous week, with shares of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Entertainment</a> Holdings Inc(AMC.N)up 22.7% after the movie theater chain said it sold $230 million of its stock.</p><p><blockquote>一批 “模因股 ”延续了前一周的涨幅，其中<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC院线</a>Holdings Inc (AMC.N) 上涨 22.7%，此前这家连锁影院表示出售了价值 2.3 亿美元的股票。</blockquote></p><p>Advancing issues outnumbered decliners on the NYSE by a 2.54-to-1 ratio; on <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a>, a 1.79-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所上涨股票的数量比下跌股票的数量多 2.54 比 1；在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">纳斯达克</a>1.79比1的比率有利于进步人士。</blockquote></p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 73 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 168 new highs and 25 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下73个52周新高，没有新低；纳斯达克综合指数创下168个新高和25个新低。</blockquote></p><p>About 10.7 billion shares changed hands in U.S. exchanges, compared with the 10.5 billion daily average over the last 20 sessions.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所约有 107 亿股股票易手，而过去 20 个交易日的日均成交量为 105 亿股。</blockquote></p><p><b>Here are company's financial statements：</b></p><p><blockquote><b>以下是公司的财务报表：</b></blockquote></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1184181912\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Zoom reports blowout earnings but warns of a coming slowdown</b></a></p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1184181912\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Zoom 报告盈利井喷，但警告即将放缓</b></a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/business/sp-500-dips-healthcare-weighs-dow-ends-higher-2021-06-01/\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/business/sp-500-dips-healthcare-weighs-dow-ends-higher-2021-06-01/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106176005","content_text":"The S&P 500(.SPX)dipped on Tuesday, with declines in healthcare and tech shares countered by energy and financial gains, as investors weighed the latest U.S. economic data for signs of a rebound and rising inflation.The S&P 500 financial sector(.SPSY)hit a record high, while expected growth in fuel demand boosted oil prices and helped lift the energy sector(.SPNY)3.9%, its biggest one-day gain in nearly four months. The heavyweight tech sector(.SPLRCT)fell while the healthcare sector(.SPXHC)was dragged down by a weak profit forecast from Abbott Laboratories(ABT.N).Data showed U.S.manufacturing activity pickedup in May as pent-up demand in a reopening economy boosted orders. But unfinished work piled up because of shortages of raw materials and labor.\"People came back from a holiday weekend convinced that the economy is recovering nicely and that any inflation that we might be seeing in labor and other costs is temporary,\" Peter Tuz, president of Chase Investment Counsel in Charlottesville, Virginia.The Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI)rose 45.86 points, or 0.13%, to 34,575.31; the S&P 500(.SPX)lost 2.07 points, or 0.05%, at 4,202.04; and the Nasdaq Composite(.IXIC)dropped 12.26 points, or 0.09%, to 13,736.48.Along with sharp gains for financials and energy, the small-cap Russell 2000(.RUT)rose 1.1% on Tuesday, underscoring strength for segments of the stock market expected to do particularly well in an expanding economy.While the S&P 500 remains less than 1% of its record high after four straight months of gains, investors are worried about whether rising inflation could hit equity prices.\"We have supply chain issues, delays, price increases, pricing pressures in general, we have got employers saying they have got difficulty sourcing labor,\" said Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco in New York.\"So this is a microcosm of what we are already hearing about and seeing in the overall economy and it's just a reminder that inflation remains a concern.\"A Wall St. sign is seen near the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., May 4, 2021. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File PhotoStock markets on Friday brushed off a surge inkey inflation readingsfor April following reassurances from Federal Reserve officials that the central bank’s ultra-loose monetary policy would remain in place.Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari and Fed Vice Chair for supervision Randal Quarles on Tuesday reiterated the view that higher prices would be transitory.This week's focus will be on a raft of economic data, culminating with U.S. payrolls due on Friday.Abbott Labs shares fell 9.3% after the company cut itsfull-year 2021 profit forecast, citing expectations for a sharp decline in revenue from its COVID-19 tests as more Americans get vaccinated. Shares of other test makers also fell.Cloudera Inc(CLDR.N)shares jumped 23.9% after private equity firms KKR & Co(KKR.N)and Clayton Dubilier & Rice LLCagreed to take the data analytics firm private.A group of“meme stocks” extended gainsfrom the previous week, with shares of AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc(AMC.N)up 22.7% after the movie theater chain said it sold $230 million of its stock.Advancing issues outnumbered decliners on the NYSE by a 2.54-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.79-to-1 ratio favored advancers.The S&P 500 posted 73 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 168 new highs and 25 new lows.About 10.7 billion shares changed hands in U.S. exchanges, compared with the 10.5 billion daily average over the last 20 sessions.Here are company's financial statements：Zoom reports blowout earnings but warns of a coming slowdown","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SH":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":301,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":821928561,"gmtCreate":1633689175864,"gmtModify":1633689176180,"author":{"id":"3582059706803344","authorId":"3582059706803344","name":"YJ12","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/053b18ef264ba18845e0b6ec9727bcb6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582059706803344","authorIdStr":"3582059706803344"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821928561","repostId":"1135993400","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135993400","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633675137,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1135993400?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-08 14:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"September Payrolls Preview: It Will Be A Beat, The Question Is How Big<blockquote>9 月份就业预览：这将是一个节拍，问题是有多大</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135993400","media":"zerohedge","summary":"After a strong initial claims report and a solid ADP private payrolls print, all eyes turn to the mo","content":"<p>After a strong initial claims report and a solid ADP private payrolls print, all eyes turn to the most important economic data point of the week, and the month, Friday's nonfarm payrolls report due at 830am ET on Friday, where consensus expects a 500K print- more than double last month's disappointing 235K print - as well as a drop in the unemployment rate to 5.1% and an increase in average hourly earnings to 4.6%. And unlike last month, when wecorrectly predicted the big miss in August payrolls, this time we agree that tomorrow's report will be a beat, the only question is how big.</p><p><blockquote>在强劲的初始申请失业救济金报告和稳健的 ADP 私人就业数据之后，所有人的目光都转向了本周和本月最重要的经济数据点，即美国东部时间周五上午 8:30 发布的周五非农就业报告，普遍预计将有 50 万人就业，是上个月令人失望的 23.5 万人就业的两倍多，失业率将降至 5.1%，平均时薪将增至 4.6%。与上个月不同，当时我们正确预测了 8 月份就业人数的重大失误，这次我们同意明天的报告将是一个打击，唯一的问题是有多大。</blockquote></p><p> Here is a snapshot of what to expect tomorrow:</p><p><blockquote>以下是明天的快照：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Total Payrolls: 500K, Last 235K</li>  <li>Private Payrolls: 450K, Last 243K</li>  <li>Unemployment Rate: 5.1%, Last 5.2%</li>  <li>Labor force participation rate: 61.8%, Last 61.7%</li>  <li>Average Hourly Earnings Y/Y: 4.6%, Last 4.3%</li>  <li>Average Weekly Hours: 34.7, Last 34.7</li> </ul> As&nbsp;Newsquawk&nbsp;writes in its NFP preview, September’s jobs data, the last before the Fed’s November 3rd policy meeting, will be framed in the context of the central bank’s expected taper announcement, where a merely satisfactory report would likely to be enough for the FOMC to greenlight a November announcement to scale-back its USD 120BN/month asset purchases.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>总就业人数：50万，最后23.5万</li><li>私人就业人数：45万，最后24.3万</li><li>失业率：5.1%，去年5.2%</li><li>劳动力参与率：61.8%，去年61.7%</li><li>平均每小时收益同比：4.6%，去年 4.3%</li><li>平均每周小时数：34.7，最近34.7</li></ul>正如 Newsquawk 在其 NFP 预览中所写的那样，9 月份的就业数据是美联储 11 月 3 日政策会议前的最后一份数据，它将以美联储预期宣布缩减规模为背景，而一份令人满意的报告可能就足以让联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 在 11 月份宣布缩减每月 1200 亿美元的资产购买规模。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman economists are more bullish than normal, and estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 600k in September, above consensus of +500k, and they note that \"labor demand remains very strong,&nbsp;<b>and we believe the nationwide expiration of enhanced unemployment beneﬁts on September 5 boosted effective labor supply and job growth—as it did in July and August in states that ended federal beneﬁts early.\"</b>As a result, Goldman is assuming a 200k boost in tomorrow’s numbers and a larger boost in October. The bank also believes the reopening of schools contributed to September job growth, by around 150k. Despite these tailwinds, Big Data employment signals were mixed, and dining activity rebounded only marginally.</p><p><blockquote>高盛经济学家比正常情况更加乐观，估计 9 月份非农就业人数增加 60 万人，高于 +50 万人的共识，他们指出“劳动力需求仍然非常强劲，<b>我们相信，9 月 5 日全国范围内增加的失业救济金到期促进了有效劳动力供应和就业增长——就像 7 月和 8 月提前结束联邦福利的州所做的那样。”</b>因此，高盛预计明天的数字将增加 20 万，10 月份的数字将增加更多。该银行还认为，学校的重新开放促进了9月份就业岗位的增长，增加了约15万个。尽管有这些有利因素，大数据就业信号好坏参半，餐饮活动仅小幅反弹。</blockquote></p><p> Labor market proxies have been constructive for the month: ADP’s gauge of payrolls surprised to the upside, although analysts continue to note that the direct relationship between the official data and the ADP’s gauge is tenuous, despite the gap being under 100k over the last three reports. The number of initial jobless claims and continuing claims has eased back between the survey periods of the August and September jobs data, although analysts note that more recent releases have shown an uptick in claims potentially clouding the outlook. The ISM business surveys have signaled employment growth in the month, with manufacturing employment rising into growth territory again, but services sector hiring cooled a little in the month, but remains expansionary; survey commentary continues to allude to a tight labour market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September employment situation report at 13:30BST/08:30EDT on October 8th.</p><p><blockquote>本月劳动力市场指标具有建设性： 尽管分析师们继续指出，官方数据与 ADP 指标之间的直接关系很脆弱，但在过去三份报告中，官方数据与 ADP 指标之间的直接关系很脆弱。在 8 月至 9 月就业数据调查期间，首次申请失业救济人数和持续申请失业救济人数有所回落，尽管分析师指出，最近公布的数据显示申请失业救济人数上升，这可能会给前景蒙上阴影。ISM商业调查显示本月就业增长，制造业就业再次进入增长区域，但服务业招聘本月略有降温，但仍保持扩张性；调查评论继续暗示劳动力市场紧张。美国劳工统计局将于10月8日英国夏令时13:30/美国东部时间08:30发布9月份就业形势报告。</blockquote></p><p> <b>POLICY</b>: The September jobs report might have reduced relevance on trading conditions given that Fed officials have effectively confirmed that, barring a collapse in the jobs data, it is on course to announce a tapering of its asset purchases at the November 3rd meeting. Accordingly, trading risks may be skewed to the downside, rather than to the upside, where a significant payrolls miss may present obstacles to the Fed announcing its taper. Additionally, it is worth being cognizant of how efforts in Washington to raise the debt ceiling are progressing; as yet, officials have not struck a deal, and are in the process of enacting stop gap legislation to allow funding into December; some analysts suggest that the Fed may be reticent to tighten policy in the face of potential default risks.</p><p><blockquote><b>政策</b>：鉴于美联储官员已有效确认，除非就业数据暴跌，否则美联储将在 11 月 3 日的会议上宣布缩减资产购买规模，因此 9 月份就业报告可能会降低其对交易条件的相关性。因此，交易风险可能会向下行倾斜，而不是向上行倾斜，因为就业数据的大幅下降可能会给美联储宣布缩减规模带来障碍。此外，值得认识到华盛顿提高债务上限的努力是如何取得进展的；到目前为止，官员们尚未达成协议，并正在制定权宜之计立法，以允许在 12 月之前提供资金；有分析师暗示，面对潜在的违约风险，美联储可能不愿收紧政策。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PAYROLLS:</b>The consensus looks for 500k nonfarm payrolls to be added to the US economy in September (prev. 235k), which would be a cooler rate of growth than the three- and six-month average rate, though in line with the 12-month average (3-month average is 750k/month, the six-month average is 653k/month, and the 12-month average is 503k/month – that technically at least suggests an improving rate of payrolls growth in recent months).<b>Aggregating the nonfarm payrolls data since March 2020, around 5.33mln Americans remain out of work relative to pre-pandemic levels.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>工资单：</b>共识预计9月份美国经济将增加50万非农就业人数（上一篇。23.5万），这将是一个比三个月和六个月平均增长率更冷的增长率，尽管与12个月的平均水平一致（3个月平均水平为75万/月，6个月平均水平为65.3万/月，12个月平均水平为50.3万/月——从技术上讲，这至少表明最近几个月的就业增长率有所提高）。<b>汇总2020年3月以来的非农就业数据，相对于大流行前的水平，约有533万美国人仍然失业。</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>MEASURES OF SLACK:</b>The Unemployment Rate is expected at 5.1% (prev. 5.2%); Labour Force Participation previously at 61.7% vs 63.2% pre-pandemic; U6 measure of underemployment was previously at 8.8% vs 7.0% prepandemic; Employment-population ratio was previously 58.5% vs 61.1% pre-pandemic. These measures of slack are likely to provide more insight into how Fed officials are judging labour market progress, with many in recent months noting that they are closely watching the Underemployment Rate, Participation Rate, and the Employment-Population Ratio for a better handle on the level of slack that remains in the economy. Analysts would be encouraged the closer these get to pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>松弛的度量：</b>失业率预计为5.1%（之前为5.2%）；劳动力参与率此前为61.7%，而大流行前为63.2%；U6 就业不足指标此前为 8.8%，而大流行前为 7.0%；就业人口比率此前为58.5%，而疫情前为61.1%。这些松弛的衡量标准可能会让人们更深入地了解美联储官员如何判断劳动力市场的进展，近几个月来，许多官员指出，他们正在密切关注就业不足率、参与率和就业与人口比率，以更好地处理经济中仍然存在的松弛程度。分析师们会受到鼓舞，因为这些数字越接近大流行前的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>EARNINGS:</b>Average Hourly Earnings expected at +0.4% M/M (prev. +0.6%); Average Hourly Earnings expected at +4. 6% Y/Y (prev. +4.3%); Average Workweek Hours expected at 34.7hrs (prev. 34.7hrs). Aggregating the nonfarm payrolls data since March 2020, around 5.33mln Americans still remain out of work relative to pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>收益：</b>平均每小时收益预计为 +0.4%（之前为 +0.6%）；平均小时收益预计同比+4.6%（前值+4.3%）；平均每周工作时间预计为34.7小时（以前。34.7小时）.汇总2020年3月以来的非农就业数据，相对于大流行前的水平，约有533万美国人仍然失业。</blockquote></p><p> <b>ADP:</b>The ADP National Employment Report showed 568k jobs added to the US economy in September, topping expectations for 428k, and a better pace than the prior 340k (revised down from 374k initially reported). ADP itself said that the labor market recovery continued to make progress despite the marked slowdown in the rate of job additions from the 748k pace seen in Q2. It also noted that Leisure &amp; Hospitality remained one of the biggest beneficiaries to the recovery, though said that hiring was still heavily impacted by the trajectory of the pandemic, especially for small firms. ADP thinks that the current bottlenecks in hiring will likely fade as the pandemic situation continues to improve, and that could set the stage for solid job gains in the months ahead. On the data methodology, analysts continue to note that ADP's model incorporates much of the prior official payrolls data, other macroeconomic variables, as well as data from its own payrolls platform; \"Payrolls were soft in August, thanks to the hit to the services sector from the Delta variant, and that weakness likely constrained ADP data,\" Pantheon Macroeconomics said. \"The overshoot to consensus, therefore, suggests that the other inputs to ADP’s model were stronger than we expected, but none of the details are published, so we don’t know if the overshoot was model-driven or due to stronger employment data at ADP’s clients.\"</p><p><blockquote><b>ADP：</b>ADP全国就业报告显示，9月份美国经济新增就业岗位56.8万个，高于预期的42.8万个，增速好于之前的34万个（从最初报告的37.4万个下调）。ADP本身表示，尽管第二季度的74.8万个工作岗位增加速度明显放缓，但劳动力市场复苏继续取得进展。它还指出，休闲和酒店业仍然是复苏的最大受益者之一，尽管表示招聘仍然受到疫情轨迹的严重影响，特别是对小公司而言。ADP认为，随着疫情形势的持续改善，当前的招聘瓶颈可能会消失，这可能会为未来几个月的稳健就业增长创造条件。在数据方法方面，分析师继续指出，ADP的模型纳入了许多以前的官方就业数据、其他宏观经济变量以及来自其自己的就业平台的数据；万神殿宏观经济学表示：“由于德尔塔变异毒株对服务业的打击，8 月份就业人数疲软，这种疲软可能会限制 ADP 数据。”“因此，与共识的超调表明，ADP模型的其他输入比我们预期的要强，但没有公布任何细节，因此我们不知道超调是模型驱动的，还是由于ADP客户的就业数据更强劲”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS:</b>Initial jobless claims data for the week that coincides with the BLS jobs report survey window saw claims at around 351k – little changed from the 349k for the August jobs data survey window – where analysts said seasonal factors played a role in boosting the weekly data, while there may have been some lingering Hurricane Ida effects; the corresponding continuing claims data has fallen to 2.802mln in the September survey period vs 2.908mln in the August survey period. In aggregate, the data continues to point to declining trend, although in recent weeks the level of jobless claims has been picking up again.</p><p><blockquote><b>首次申请失业救济人数：</b>与 BLS 就业报告调查窗口相吻合的一周首次申请失业救济人数约为 35.1 万人，与 8 月份就业数据调查窗口的 34.9 万人几乎没有变化，分析师表示，季节性因素在提振每周数据方面发挥了作用，而可能存在一些挥之不去的飓风艾达的影响；相应的持续索赔数据在9月份调查期间降至280.2万份，而8月份调查期间为290.8万份。总体而言，数据继续指向下降趋势，尽管最近几周申请失业救济人数的水平再次回升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BUSINESS SURVEYS</b>: The Services and Manufacturing ISM reports showed divergent trends in September, with the service sector employment sub-index easing a little to 53.0 from 53.7, signalling growth but at a slower rate, while the manufacturing employment sub-index rose back into expansionary territory, printing 50.2 from 49.0 prior. On the manufacturing sector, ISM said companies were still struggling to meet labour-management plans, but noted some modest signs of progress compared to previous months: \"Less than 5% of comments noted improvements regarding employment, compared to none in August,\" it said, \"an overwhelming majority of panelists indicate their companies are hiring or attempting to hire,\" where around 85% of responses were about seeking additional staffing, while nearly half of the respondents expressed difficulty in filling positions, an increase from August. \"The increasing frequency of comments on turnover rates and retirements continued a trend that began in August,\" ISM said. Meanwhile, in the services sector, employment activity rose for a third straight month; respondents noted that employees were flocking to better-paying jobs and there was a lack of pipeline to replace these staff, while other respondents talked of labor shortages being experienced at all levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>商业调查</b>: 9 月份服务业和制造业 ISM 报告显示了不同的趋势，服务业就业分项指数从 53.7 小幅放缓至 53.0，表明增长，但速度较慢，而制造业就业分项指数回升至扩张区域，从之前的 49.0 升至 50.2。在制造业方面，ISM 表示，企业仍在努力实现劳动力管理计划，但指出与前几个月相比有一些适度的进展迹象：“不到 5% 的评论指出就业有所改善，而 8 月份则没有，”它表示，“绝大多数小组成员表示他们的公司正在招聘或试图招聘，”其中约 85% 的回答是关于寻求额外的员工，而近一半的受访者表示难以填补职位，这一比例较 8 月份有所增加。ISM 表示：“有关离职率和退休的评论越来越频繁，延续了 8 月份开始的趋势。”与此同时，服务业就业活动连续第三个月上升；受访者指出，员工纷纷涌向薪酬更高的工作，缺乏替代这些员工的渠道，而其他受访者则谈到各级都出现了劳动力短缺。</blockquote></p><p> <b>ARGUING FOR A BETTER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT</b>:</p><p><blockquote><b>争取一份好于预期的报告</b>:</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>End of federal enhanced unemployment beneﬁts</b>. The expiration of federal beneﬁts in some states boosted labor supply and job-ﬁnding rates over the summer, and all remaining such programs expired on September 5. The July and August indicated a cumulative 6pp boost to job-ﬁnding probabilities from June to August for workers losing $300 top-up payments and a 12pp boost for workers losing all beneﬁts.<b>Some of the 6mn workers who lost some or all beneﬁts on September 5 got a job by September 18—in time to be counted in tomorrow’s data.</b>Goldman assumes a +200k boost to job growth from this channel, with a larger increase in subsequent reports (+1.3mn cumulatively by year end).</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa8e5900cf66c76d4b64055f84e58048\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>联邦增强失业救济金的终止</b>.一些州的联邦福利到期提高了夏季的劳动力供应和就业率，所有剩余的此类计划都于9月5日到期。7 月和 8 月显示，从 6 月到 8 月，失去 300 美元充值付款的工人的求职概率累计增加了 6 个百分点，失去所有福利的工人的求职概率累计增加了 12 个百分点。<b>9 月 5 日失去部分或全部福利的 600 万工人中，有一些人在 9 月 18 日找到了工作--及时计入明天的数据。</b>高盛假设这一渠道将推动就业增长+20万人，随后的报告将有更大的增长（截至年底累计+130万人）。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>School reopening</b>. The largest 100 school districts are all open for in-person learning, catalyzing the return of many previously furloughed teachers and support staff. While full normalization of employment levels would contribute 600k jobs (mom sa, see left panel of the chart below), some janitors and support staff did not return due to hybrid teaching models, and job openings in the sector are only 200k above the pre-crisis level (see right panel). Relatedly, the BLS’s seasonal factors already embed the usual rehiring of education workers on summer layoff, so if fewer janitors returned to work than in a typical September, this would reduce seasonally adjusted job growth, other things equal. Taken together, assume a roughly 150k boost from the reopening of schools in tomorrow’s report.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff3e69723b40e0d372ec2bebecb38b1f\" tg-width=\"799\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>学校复课</b>最大的100个学区都开放面对面学习，促使许多以前休假的教师和辅助人员重返校园。虽然就业水平的完全正常化将提供60万个工作岗位（mom sa，见下图左图），但由于混合教学模式，一些看门人和辅助人员没有返回，该部门的职位空缺仅比危机前的水平高出20万个（见右图）。与此相关的是，在其他条件相同的情况下，劳工统计局的季节性因素已经包含了教育工作者通常在夏季裁员时重新招聘的情况，因此，如果重返工作岗位的清洁工少于典型的 9 月份，这将降低经季节性调整后的就业增长。综合来看，在明天的报告中，学校重新开放将带来大约 15 万人的增长。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Job availability</b>. The Conference Board labor differential—the difference between the percent of respondents saying jobs are plentiful and those saying jobs are hardto get - edged down to 42.5 from 44.4, still an elevated level. Additionally, JOLTS job openings increased by 749k in July to a new record high of 10.9mn.</li>  <li><b>ADP.</b>Private sector employment in the ADP report increased by 568k in September, above consensus expectations for a 430k gain, implying strong growth in the underlying ADP sample. Additionally, schools generally do not use ADP payroll software, arguing for a larger gain from school reopening in the official payroll measure.</li> </ul> <b>ARGUING FOR A WEAKER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT:</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>工作可用性</b>世界大型企业联合会劳动力差异——认为工作机会充足的受访者和认为工作机会很难找到的受访者之间的差异——从44.4%降至42.5%，仍然是一个较高的水平。此外，JOLTS 7月份职位空缺增加了74.9万个，达到1090万个的新高。</li><li><b>ADP。</b>ADP报告中的私营部门就业人数在9月份增加了56.8万人，高于市场普遍预期的43万人，这意味着基础ADP样本的强劲增长。此外，学校通常不使用ADP工资软件，认为在官方工资衡量标准中，学校重新开放会带来更大的收益。</li></ul><b>主张报告弱于预期：</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Delta variant.</b>Rebounding covid infection rates weighed on services consumption and the labor market in August. And while US case counts began to decline in early September, restaurant seatings on Open Table rebounded only marginally. leisure and hospitality employment rose in September, but probably not at the ~400k monthly pace of June and July.</li>  <li><b>Employer surveys</b>. The employment components of our business surveys were flat to down, whereas we and consensus forecast a pickup in job growth. Goldman's services survey employment tracker remained unchanged at 54.5 and the manufacturing survey employment tracker declined 0.4pt to 57.8. And while the Goldman Sachs Analyst Index (GSAI) decreased 0.8% to 68.5, the employment component rose1.9% to 71.9.</li> </ul> <b>NEUTRAL FACTORS:</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>德尔塔变异毒株.</b>8 月份新冠感染率反弹给服务消费和劳动力市场带来压力。虽然美国病例数在9月初开始下降，但开放餐桌的餐厅座位仅略有反弹。9 月份休闲和酒店业就业人数有所增长，但可能不会达到 6 月和 7 月每月约 40 万人的增长速度。</li><li><b>雇主调查</b>我们的商业调查中的就业组成部分持平或下降，而我们和共识预测就业增长将回升。高盛服务业调查就业跟踪指数保持在 54.5 不变，制造业调查就业跟踪指数下降 0.4 个百分点至 57.8。高盛分析师指数 (GSAI) 下降 0.8% 至 68.5，而就业成分上升 1.9% 至 71.9。</li></ul><b>中性因素：</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Big Data.</b>High-frequency data on the labor market were mixed between the August and September survey weeks, on net providing little guidance about the underlying pace of job growth. Three of the five measures tracked indicate an at-or-above-consensus gain (Census Small Business Pulse +0.5mn, ADP +0.6mn,Google mobility +2mn), but the Homebase data was an outlier to the downside. At face value, it would indicate a large outright decline in payrolls. The Census Household Pulse (-0.6mn) was also quite weak, though encouragingly, it also indicated a large drop in childcare-related labor supply headwinds as schools reopened.</li>  <li><b>Seasonality.</b>The September seasonal hurdle is relatively low: the BLS adjustment factors generally assume a 600-700k decline in private payrolls (which exclude public schools), compared to around -100k on average in July and August. Continued labor shortages encouraged firms to lay off fewer workers at the end of summer. Partially offsetting this tailwind, the September seasonal factors may have evolved unfavorably due to the crisis—specifically by fitting to last September’s reopening-driven job surge (private payrolls +932k mom sa).</li>  <li><b>Jobless claims.</b>Initial jobless claims fell during the September payroll month, averaging 339k per week vs. 378k in August despite a boost from individuals transitioning or attempting to transition to state programs. Across all employee programs including emergency benefits, continuing claims fell dramatically (-3.3mn)–but again for non-economic reasons (federal enhanced programs expired). Continuing claims in regular state programs decreased 106k from survey week to survey week.</li>  <li><b>Job cuts.</b>Announced layoffs reported by Challenger, Gray &amp; Christmas rebounded 11% month-over-month in September after decreasing by 14% over the prior two months (SA by GS). Nonetheless, layoffs remain near the three-decade low on this measure (in 1993).</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>大数据。</b>8 月至 9 月调查周期间，劳动力市场的高频数据好坏参半，对就业增长的基本速度几乎没有提供指导。跟踪的五项指标中有三项显示增幅达到或高于共识（人口普查小企业脉冲+50万，ADP+60万，谷歌移动+200万），但Homebase数据是下行的异常值。从表面上看，这将表明就业人数大幅下降。人口普查家庭脉搏（-60万）也相当疲软，尽管令人鼓舞，但它也表明随着学校重新开放，与儿童保育相关的劳动力供应逆风大幅下降。</li><li><b>季节性。</b>9月份的季节性障碍相对较低：BLS调整因素通常假设私人就业人数（不包括公立学校）下降60-70万人，而7月和8月的平均就业人数约为-10万人。持续的劳动力短缺鼓励企业在夏季结束时减少裁员。9 月份的季节性因素可能因危机而发生了不利的演变，这在一定程度上抵消了这一推动力--特别是与去年 9 月份重新开放推动的就业激增相吻合（私人就业人数 +93.2 万 mom sa）。</li><li><b>申请失业救济金。</b>尽管个人过渡到或试图过渡到国家计划，但9月份的首次申请失业救济人数有所上升，平均每周为33.9万人，而8月份为37.8万人。在包括紧急福利在内的所有员工计划中，持续索赔大幅下降（-330万）——但同样是因为非经济原因（联邦增强型计划到期）。从调查周到调查周，常规州项目的持续申请减少了10.6万人。</li><li><b>裁员。</b>Challenger、Gray &amp; Christmas 报告的宣布裁员人数在前两个月下降 14% 后，9 月份环比反弹 11%（SA by GS）。尽管如此，这一指标的裁员仍接近三十年来的最低点（1993 年）。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>September Payrolls Preview: It Will Be A Beat, The Question Is How Big<blockquote>9 月份就业预览：这将是一个节拍，问题是有多大</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSeptember Payrolls Preview: It Will Be A Beat, The Question Is How Big<blockquote>9 月份就业预览：这将是一个节拍，问题是有多大</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-08 14:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>After a strong initial claims report and a solid ADP private payrolls print, all eyes turn to the most important economic data point of the week, and the month, Friday's nonfarm payrolls report due at 830am ET on Friday, where consensus expects a 500K print- more than double last month's disappointing 235K print - as well as a drop in the unemployment rate to 5.1% and an increase in average hourly earnings to 4.6%. And unlike last month, when wecorrectly predicted the big miss in August payrolls, this time we agree that tomorrow's report will be a beat, the only question is how big.</p><p><blockquote>在强劲的初始申请失业救济金报告和稳健的 ADP 私人就业数据之后，所有人的目光都转向了本周和本月最重要的经济数据点，即美国东部时间周五上午 8:30 发布的周五非农就业报告，普遍预计将有 50 万人就业，是上个月令人失望的 23.5 万人就业的两倍多，失业率将降至 5.1%，平均时薪将增至 4.6%。与上个月不同，当时我们正确预测了 8 月份就业人数的重大失误，这次我们同意明天的报告将是一个打击，唯一的问题是有多大。</blockquote></p><p> Here is a snapshot of what to expect tomorrow:</p><p><blockquote>以下是明天的快照：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Total Payrolls: 500K, Last 235K</li>  <li>Private Payrolls: 450K, Last 243K</li>  <li>Unemployment Rate: 5.1%, Last 5.2%</li>  <li>Labor force participation rate: 61.8%, Last 61.7%</li>  <li>Average Hourly Earnings Y/Y: 4.6%, Last 4.3%</li>  <li>Average Weekly Hours: 34.7, Last 34.7</li> </ul> As&nbsp;Newsquawk&nbsp;writes in its NFP preview, September’s jobs data, the last before the Fed’s November 3rd policy meeting, will be framed in the context of the central bank’s expected taper announcement, where a merely satisfactory report would likely to be enough for the FOMC to greenlight a November announcement to scale-back its USD 120BN/month asset purchases.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>总就业人数：50万，最后23.5万</li><li>私人就业人数：45万，最后24.3万</li><li>失业率：5.1%，去年5.2%</li><li>劳动力参与率：61.8%，去年61.7%</li><li>平均每小时收益同比：4.6%，去年 4.3%</li><li>平均每周小时数：34.7，最近34.7</li></ul>正如 Newsquawk 在其 NFP 预览中所写的那样，9 月份的就业数据是美联储 11 月 3 日政策会议前的最后一份数据，它将以美联储预期宣布缩减规模为背景，而一份令人满意的报告可能就足以让联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 在 11 月份宣布缩减每月 1200 亿美元的资产购买规模。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman economists are more bullish than normal, and estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 600k in September, above consensus of +500k, and they note that \"labor demand remains very strong,&nbsp;<b>and we believe the nationwide expiration of enhanced unemployment beneﬁts on September 5 boosted effective labor supply and job growth—as it did in July and August in states that ended federal beneﬁts early.\"</b>As a result, Goldman is assuming a 200k boost in tomorrow’s numbers and a larger boost in October. The bank also believes the reopening of schools contributed to September job growth, by around 150k. Despite these tailwinds, Big Data employment signals were mixed, and dining activity rebounded only marginally.</p><p><blockquote>高盛经济学家比正常情况更加乐观，估计 9 月份非农就业人数增加 60 万人，高于 +50 万人的共识，他们指出“劳动力需求仍然非常强劲，<b>我们相信，9 月 5 日全国范围内增加的失业救济金到期促进了有效劳动力供应和就业增长——就像 7 月和 8 月提前结束联邦福利的州所做的那样。”</b>因此，高盛预计明天的数字将增加 20 万，10 月份的数字将增加更多。该银行还认为，学校的重新开放促进了9月份就业岗位的增长，增加了约15万个。尽管有这些有利因素，大数据就业信号好坏参半，餐饮活动仅小幅反弹。</blockquote></p><p> Labor market proxies have been constructive for the month: ADP’s gauge of payrolls surprised to the upside, although analysts continue to note that the direct relationship between the official data and the ADP’s gauge is tenuous, despite the gap being under 100k over the last three reports. The number of initial jobless claims and continuing claims has eased back between the survey periods of the August and September jobs data, although analysts note that more recent releases have shown an uptick in claims potentially clouding the outlook. The ISM business surveys have signaled employment growth in the month, with manufacturing employment rising into growth territory again, but services sector hiring cooled a little in the month, but remains expansionary; survey commentary continues to allude to a tight labour market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September employment situation report at 13:30BST/08:30EDT on October 8th.</p><p><blockquote>本月劳动力市场指标具有建设性： 尽管分析师们继续指出，官方数据与 ADP 指标之间的直接关系很脆弱，但在过去三份报告中，官方数据与 ADP 指标之间的直接关系很脆弱。在 8 月至 9 月就业数据调查期间，首次申请失业救济人数和持续申请失业救济人数有所回落，尽管分析师指出，最近公布的数据显示申请失业救济人数上升，这可能会给前景蒙上阴影。ISM商业调查显示本月就业增长，制造业就业再次进入增长区域，但服务业招聘本月略有降温，但仍保持扩张性；调查评论继续暗示劳动力市场紧张。美国劳工统计局将于10月8日英国夏令时13:30/美国东部时间08:30发布9月份就业形势报告。</blockquote></p><p> <b>POLICY</b>: The September jobs report might have reduced relevance on trading conditions given that Fed officials have effectively confirmed that, barring a collapse in the jobs data, it is on course to announce a tapering of its asset purchases at the November 3rd meeting. Accordingly, trading risks may be skewed to the downside, rather than to the upside, where a significant payrolls miss may present obstacles to the Fed announcing its taper. Additionally, it is worth being cognizant of how efforts in Washington to raise the debt ceiling are progressing; as yet, officials have not struck a deal, and are in the process of enacting stop gap legislation to allow funding into December; some analysts suggest that the Fed may be reticent to tighten policy in the face of potential default risks.</p><p><blockquote><b>政策</b>：鉴于美联储官员已有效确认，除非就业数据暴跌，否则美联储将在 11 月 3 日的会议上宣布缩减资产购买规模，因此 9 月份就业报告可能会降低其对交易条件的相关性。因此，交易风险可能会向下行倾斜，而不是向上行倾斜，因为就业数据的大幅下降可能会给美联储宣布缩减规模带来障碍。此外，值得认识到华盛顿提高债务上限的努力是如何取得进展的；到目前为止，官员们尚未达成协议，并正在制定权宜之计立法，以允许在 12 月之前提供资金；有分析师暗示，面对潜在的违约风险，美联储可能不愿收紧政策。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PAYROLLS:</b>The consensus looks for 500k nonfarm payrolls to be added to the US economy in September (prev. 235k), which would be a cooler rate of growth than the three- and six-month average rate, though in line with the 12-month average (3-month average is 750k/month, the six-month average is 653k/month, and the 12-month average is 503k/month – that technically at least suggests an improving rate of payrolls growth in recent months).<b>Aggregating the nonfarm payrolls data since March 2020, around 5.33mln Americans remain out of work relative to pre-pandemic levels.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>工资单：</b>共识预计9月份美国经济将增加50万非农就业人数（上一篇。23.5万），这将是一个比三个月和六个月平均增长率更冷的增长率，尽管与12个月的平均水平一致（3个月平均水平为75万/月，6个月平均水平为65.3万/月，12个月平均水平为50.3万/月——从技术上讲，这至少表明最近几个月的就业增长率有所提高）。<b>汇总2020年3月以来的非农就业数据，相对于大流行前的水平，约有533万美国人仍然失业。</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>MEASURES OF SLACK:</b>The Unemployment Rate is expected at 5.1% (prev. 5.2%); Labour Force Participation previously at 61.7% vs 63.2% pre-pandemic; U6 measure of underemployment was previously at 8.8% vs 7.0% prepandemic; Employment-population ratio was previously 58.5% vs 61.1% pre-pandemic. These measures of slack are likely to provide more insight into how Fed officials are judging labour market progress, with many in recent months noting that they are closely watching the Underemployment Rate, Participation Rate, and the Employment-Population Ratio for a better handle on the level of slack that remains in the economy. Analysts would be encouraged the closer these get to pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>松弛的度量：</b>失业率预计为5.1%（之前为5.2%）；劳动力参与率此前为61.7%，而大流行前为63.2%；U6 就业不足指标此前为 8.8%，而大流行前为 7.0%；就业人口比率此前为58.5%，而疫情前为61.1%。这些松弛的衡量标准可能会让人们更深入地了解美联储官员如何判断劳动力市场的进展，近几个月来，许多官员指出，他们正在密切关注就业不足率、参与率和就业与人口比率，以更好地处理经济中仍然存在的松弛程度。分析师们会受到鼓舞，因为这些数字越接近大流行前的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>EARNINGS:</b>Average Hourly Earnings expected at +0.4% M/M (prev. +0.6%); Average Hourly Earnings expected at +4. 6% Y/Y (prev. +4.3%); Average Workweek Hours expected at 34.7hrs (prev. 34.7hrs). Aggregating the nonfarm payrolls data since March 2020, around 5.33mln Americans still remain out of work relative to pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>收益：</b>平均每小时收益预计为 +0.4%（之前为 +0.6%）；平均小时收益预计同比+4.6%（前值+4.3%）；平均每周工作时间预计为34.7小时（以前。34.7小时）.汇总2020年3月以来的非农就业数据，相对于大流行前的水平，约有533万美国人仍然失业。</blockquote></p><p> <b>ADP:</b>The ADP National Employment Report showed 568k jobs added to the US economy in September, topping expectations for 428k, and a better pace than the prior 340k (revised down from 374k initially reported). ADP itself said that the labor market recovery continued to make progress despite the marked slowdown in the rate of job additions from the 748k pace seen in Q2. It also noted that Leisure &amp; Hospitality remained one of the biggest beneficiaries to the recovery, though said that hiring was still heavily impacted by the trajectory of the pandemic, especially for small firms. ADP thinks that the current bottlenecks in hiring will likely fade as the pandemic situation continues to improve, and that could set the stage for solid job gains in the months ahead. On the data methodology, analysts continue to note that ADP's model incorporates much of the prior official payrolls data, other macroeconomic variables, as well as data from its own payrolls platform; \"Payrolls were soft in August, thanks to the hit to the services sector from the Delta variant, and that weakness likely constrained ADP data,\" Pantheon Macroeconomics said. \"The overshoot to consensus, therefore, suggests that the other inputs to ADP’s model were stronger than we expected, but none of the details are published, so we don’t know if the overshoot was model-driven or due to stronger employment data at ADP’s clients.\"</p><p><blockquote><b>ADP：</b>ADP全国就业报告显示，9月份美国经济新增就业岗位56.8万个，高于预期的42.8万个，增速好于之前的34万个（从最初报告的37.4万个下调）。ADP本身表示，尽管第二季度的74.8万个工作岗位增加速度明显放缓，但劳动力市场复苏继续取得进展。它还指出，休闲和酒店业仍然是复苏的最大受益者之一，尽管表示招聘仍然受到疫情轨迹的严重影响，特别是对小公司而言。ADP认为，随着疫情形势的持续改善，当前的招聘瓶颈可能会消失，这可能会为未来几个月的稳健就业增长创造条件。在数据方法方面，分析师继续指出，ADP的模型纳入了许多以前的官方就业数据、其他宏观经济变量以及来自其自己的就业平台的数据；万神殿宏观经济学表示：“由于德尔塔变异毒株对服务业的打击，8 月份就业人数疲软，这种疲软可能会限制 ADP 数据。”“因此，与共识的超调表明，ADP模型的其他输入比我们预期的要强，但没有公布任何细节，因此我们不知道超调是模型驱动的，还是由于ADP客户的就业数据更强劲”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS:</b>Initial jobless claims data for the week that coincides with the BLS jobs report survey window saw claims at around 351k – little changed from the 349k for the August jobs data survey window – where analysts said seasonal factors played a role in boosting the weekly data, while there may have been some lingering Hurricane Ida effects; the corresponding continuing claims data has fallen to 2.802mln in the September survey period vs 2.908mln in the August survey period. In aggregate, the data continues to point to declining trend, although in recent weeks the level of jobless claims has been picking up again.</p><p><blockquote><b>首次申请失业救济人数：</b>与 BLS 就业报告调查窗口相吻合的一周首次申请失业救济人数约为 35.1 万人，与 8 月份就业数据调查窗口的 34.9 万人几乎没有变化，分析师表示，季节性因素在提振每周数据方面发挥了作用，而可能存在一些挥之不去的飓风艾达的影响；相应的持续索赔数据在9月份调查期间降至280.2万份，而8月份调查期间为290.8万份。总体而言，数据继续指向下降趋势，尽管最近几周申请失业救济人数的水平再次回升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BUSINESS SURVEYS</b>: The Services and Manufacturing ISM reports showed divergent trends in September, with the service sector employment sub-index easing a little to 53.0 from 53.7, signalling growth but at a slower rate, while the manufacturing employment sub-index rose back into expansionary territory, printing 50.2 from 49.0 prior. On the manufacturing sector, ISM said companies were still struggling to meet labour-management plans, but noted some modest signs of progress compared to previous months: \"Less than 5% of comments noted improvements regarding employment, compared to none in August,\" it said, \"an overwhelming majority of panelists indicate their companies are hiring or attempting to hire,\" where around 85% of responses were about seeking additional staffing, while nearly half of the respondents expressed difficulty in filling positions, an increase from August. \"The increasing frequency of comments on turnover rates and retirements continued a trend that began in August,\" ISM said. Meanwhile, in the services sector, employment activity rose for a third straight month; respondents noted that employees were flocking to better-paying jobs and there was a lack of pipeline to replace these staff, while other respondents talked of labor shortages being experienced at all levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>商业调查</b>: 9 月份服务业和制造业 ISM 报告显示了不同的趋势，服务业就业分项指数从 53.7 小幅放缓至 53.0，表明增长，但速度较慢，而制造业就业分项指数回升至扩张区域，从之前的 49.0 升至 50.2。在制造业方面，ISM 表示，企业仍在努力实现劳动力管理计划，但指出与前几个月相比有一些适度的进展迹象：“不到 5% 的评论指出就业有所改善，而 8 月份则没有，”它表示，“绝大多数小组成员表示他们的公司正在招聘或试图招聘，”其中约 85% 的回答是关于寻求额外的员工，而近一半的受访者表示难以填补职位，这一比例较 8 月份有所增加。ISM 表示：“有关离职率和退休的评论越来越频繁，延续了 8 月份开始的趋势。”与此同时，服务业就业活动连续第三个月上升；受访者指出，员工纷纷涌向薪酬更高的工作，缺乏替代这些员工的渠道，而其他受访者则谈到各级都出现了劳动力短缺。</blockquote></p><p> <b>ARGUING FOR A BETTER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT</b>:</p><p><blockquote><b>争取一份好于预期的报告</b>:</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>End of federal enhanced unemployment beneﬁts</b>. The expiration of federal beneﬁts in some states boosted labor supply and job-ﬁnding rates over the summer, and all remaining such programs expired on September 5. The July and August indicated a cumulative 6pp boost to job-ﬁnding probabilities from June to August for workers losing $300 top-up payments and a 12pp boost for workers losing all beneﬁts.<b>Some of the 6mn workers who lost some or all beneﬁts on September 5 got a job by September 18—in time to be counted in tomorrow’s data.</b>Goldman assumes a +200k boost to job growth from this channel, with a larger increase in subsequent reports (+1.3mn cumulatively by year end).</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa8e5900cf66c76d4b64055f84e58048\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>联邦增强失业救济金的终止</b>.一些州的联邦福利到期提高了夏季的劳动力供应和就业率，所有剩余的此类计划都于9月5日到期。7 月和 8 月显示，从 6 月到 8 月，失去 300 美元充值付款的工人的求职概率累计增加了 6 个百分点，失去所有福利的工人的求职概率累计增加了 12 个百分点。<b>9 月 5 日失去部分或全部福利的 600 万工人中，有一些人在 9 月 18 日找到了工作--及时计入明天的数据。</b>高盛假设这一渠道将推动就业增长+20万人，随后的报告将有更大的增长（截至年底累计+130万人）。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>School reopening</b>. The largest 100 school districts are all open for in-person learning, catalyzing the return of many previously furloughed teachers and support staff. While full normalization of employment levels would contribute 600k jobs (mom sa, see left panel of the chart below), some janitors and support staff did not return due to hybrid teaching models, and job openings in the sector are only 200k above the pre-crisis level (see right panel). Relatedly, the BLS’s seasonal factors already embed the usual rehiring of education workers on summer layoff, so if fewer janitors returned to work than in a typical September, this would reduce seasonally adjusted job growth, other things equal. Taken together, assume a roughly 150k boost from the reopening of schools in tomorrow’s report.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff3e69723b40e0d372ec2bebecb38b1f\" tg-width=\"799\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>学校复课</b>最大的100个学区都开放面对面学习，促使许多以前休假的教师和辅助人员重返校园。虽然就业水平的完全正常化将提供60万个工作岗位（mom sa，见下图左图），但由于混合教学模式，一些看门人和辅助人员没有返回，该部门的职位空缺仅比危机前的水平高出20万个（见右图）。与此相关的是，在其他条件相同的情况下，劳工统计局的季节性因素已经包含了教育工作者通常在夏季裁员时重新招聘的情况，因此，如果重返工作岗位的清洁工少于典型的 9 月份，这将降低经季节性调整后的就业增长。综合来看，在明天的报告中，学校重新开放将带来大约 15 万人的增长。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Job availability</b>. The Conference Board labor differential—the difference between the percent of respondents saying jobs are plentiful and those saying jobs are hardto get - edged down to 42.5 from 44.4, still an elevated level. Additionally, JOLTS job openings increased by 749k in July to a new record high of 10.9mn.</li>  <li><b>ADP.</b>Private sector employment in the ADP report increased by 568k in September, above consensus expectations for a 430k gain, implying strong growth in the underlying ADP sample. Additionally, schools generally do not use ADP payroll software, arguing for a larger gain from school reopening in the official payroll measure.</li> </ul> <b>ARGUING FOR A WEAKER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT:</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>工作可用性</b>世界大型企业联合会劳动力差异——认为工作机会充足的受访者和认为工作机会很难找到的受访者之间的差异——从44.4%降至42.5%，仍然是一个较高的水平。此外，JOLTS 7月份职位空缺增加了74.9万个，达到1090万个的新高。</li><li><b>ADP。</b>ADP报告中的私营部门就业人数在9月份增加了56.8万人，高于市场普遍预期的43万人，这意味着基础ADP样本的强劲增长。此外，学校通常不使用ADP工资软件，认为在官方工资衡量标准中，学校重新开放会带来更大的收益。</li></ul><b>主张报告弱于预期：</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Delta variant.</b>Rebounding covid infection rates weighed on services consumption and the labor market in August. And while US case counts began to decline in early September, restaurant seatings on Open Table rebounded only marginally. leisure and hospitality employment rose in September, but probably not at the ~400k monthly pace of June and July.</li>  <li><b>Employer surveys</b>. The employment components of our business surveys were flat to down, whereas we and consensus forecast a pickup in job growth. Goldman's services survey employment tracker remained unchanged at 54.5 and the manufacturing survey employment tracker declined 0.4pt to 57.8. And while the Goldman Sachs Analyst Index (GSAI) decreased 0.8% to 68.5, the employment component rose1.9% to 71.9.</li> </ul> <b>NEUTRAL FACTORS:</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>德尔塔变异毒株.</b>8 月份新冠感染率反弹给服务消费和劳动力市场带来压力。虽然美国病例数在9月初开始下降，但开放餐桌的餐厅座位仅略有反弹。9 月份休闲和酒店业就业人数有所增长，但可能不会达到 6 月和 7 月每月约 40 万人的增长速度。</li><li><b>雇主调查</b>我们的商业调查中的就业组成部分持平或下降，而我们和共识预测就业增长将回升。高盛服务业调查就业跟踪指数保持在 54.5 不变，制造业调查就业跟踪指数下降 0.4 个百分点至 57.8。高盛分析师指数 (GSAI) 下降 0.8% 至 68.5，而就业成分上升 1.9% 至 71.9。</li></ul><b>中性因素：</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Big Data.</b>High-frequency data on the labor market were mixed between the August and September survey weeks, on net providing little guidance about the underlying pace of job growth. Three of the five measures tracked indicate an at-or-above-consensus gain (Census Small Business Pulse +0.5mn, ADP +0.6mn,Google mobility +2mn), but the Homebase data was an outlier to the downside. At face value, it would indicate a large outright decline in payrolls. The Census Household Pulse (-0.6mn) was also quite weak, though encouragingly, it also indicated a large drop in childcare-related labor supply headwinds as schools reopened.</li>  <li><b>Seasonality.</b>The September seasonal hurdle is relatively low: the BLS adjustment factors generally assume a 600-700k decline in private payrolls (which exclude public schools), compared to around -100k on average in July and August. Continued labor shortages encouraged firms to lay off fewer workers at the end of summer. Partially offsetting this tailwind, the September seasonal factors may have evolved unfavorably due to the crisis—specifically by fitting to last September’s reopening-driven job surge (private payrolls +932k mom sa).</li>  <li><b>Jobless claims.</b>Initial jobless claims fell during the September payroll month, averaging 339k per week vs. 378k in August despite a boost from individuals transitioning or attempting to transition to state programs. Across all employee programs including emergency benefits, continuing claims fell dramatically (-3.3mn)–but again for non-economic reasons (federal enhanced programs expired). Continuing claims in regular state programs decreased 106k from survey week to survey week.</li>  <li><b>Job cuts.</b>Announced layoffs reported by Challenger, Gray &amp; Christmas rebounded 11% month-over-month in September after decreasing by 14% over the prior two months (SA by GS). Nonetheless, layoffs remain near the three-decade low on this measure (in 1993).</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>大数据。</b>8 月至 9 月调查周期间，劳动力市场的高频数据好坏参半，对就业增长的基本速度几乎没有提供指导。跟踪的五项指标中有三项显示增幅达到或高于共识（人口普查小企业脉冲+50万，ADP+60万，谷歌移动+200万），但Homebase数据是下行的异常值。从表面上看，这将表明就业人数大幅下降。人口普查家庭脉搏（-60万）也相当疲软，尽管令人鼓舞，但它也表明随着学校重新开放，与儿童保育相关的劳动力供应逆风大幅下降。</li><li><b>季节性。</b>9月份的季节性障碍相对较低：BLS调整因素通常假设私人就业人数（不包括公立学校）下降60-70万人，而7月和8月的平均就业人数约为-10万人。持续的劳动力短缺鼓励企业在夏季结束时减少裁员。9 月份的季节性因素可能因危机而发生了不利的演变，这在一定程度上抵消了这一推动力--特别是与去年 9 月份重新开放推动的就业激增相吻合（私人就业人数 +93.2 万 mom sa）。</li><li><b>申请失业救济金。</b>尽管个人过渡到或试图过渡到国家计划，但9月份的首次申请失业救济人数有所上升，平均每周为33.9万人，而8月份为37.8万人。在包括紧急福利在内的所有员工计划中，持续索赔大幅下降（-330万）——但同样是因为非经济原因（联邦增强型计划到期）。从调查周到调查周，常规州项目的持续申请减少了10.6万人。</li><li><b>裁员。</b>Challenger、Gray &amp; Christmas 报告的宣布裁员人数在前两个月下降 14% 后，9 月份环比反弹 11%（SA by GS）。尽管如此，这一指标的裁员仍接近三十年来的最低点（1993 年）。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/september-payrolls-preview-it-will-be-beat-question-how-big\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/september-payrolls-preview-it-will-be-beat-question-how-big","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135993400","content_text":"After a strong initial claims report and a solid ADP private payrolls print, all eyes turn to the most important economic data point of the week, and the month, Friday's nonfarm payrolls report due at 830am ET on Friday, where consensus expects a 500K print- more than double last month's disappointing 235K print - as well as a drop in the unemployment rate to 5.1% and an increase in average hourly earnings to 4.6%. And unlike last month, when wecorrectly predicted the big miss in August payrolls, this time we agree that tomorrow's report will be a beat, the only question is how big.\nHere is a snapshot of what to expect tomorrow:\n\nTotal Payrolls: 500K, Last 235K\nPrivate Payrolls: 450K, Last 243K\nUnemployment Rate: 5.1%, Last 5.2%\nLabor force participation rate: 61.8%, Last 61.7%\nAverage Hourly Earnings Y/Y: 4.6%, Last 4.3%\nAverage Weekly Hours: 34.7, Last 34.7\n\nAs Newsquawk writes in its NFP preview, September’s jobs data, the last before the Fed’s November 3rd policy meeting, will be framed in the context of the central bank’s expected taper announcement, where a merely satisfactory report would likely to be enough for the FOMC to greenlight a November announcement to scale-back its USD 120BN/month asset purchases.\nGoldman economists are more bullish than normal, and estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 600k in September, above consensus of +500k, and they note that \"labor demand remains very strong, and we believe the nationwide expiration of enhanced unemployment beneﬁts on September 5 boosted effective labor supply and job growth—as it did in July and August in states that ended federal beneﬁts early.\"As a result, Goldman is assuming a 200k boost in tomorrow’s numbers and a larger boost in October. The bank also believes the reopening of schools contributed to September job growth, by around 150k. Despite these tailwinds, Big Data employment signals were mixed, and dining activity rebounded only marginally.\nLabor market proxies have been constructive for the month: ADP’s gauge of payrolls surprised to the upside, although analysts continue to note that the direct relationship between the official data and the ADP’s gauge is tenuous, despite the gap being under 100k over the last three reports. The number of initial jobless claims and continuing claims has eased back between the survey periods of the August and September jobs data, although analysts note that more recent releases have shown an uptick in claims potentially clouding the outlook. The ISM business surveys have signaled employment growth in the month, with manufacturing employment rising into growth territory again, but services sector hiring cooled a little in the month, but remains expansionary; survey commentary continues to allude to a tight labour market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September employment situation report at 13:30BST/08:30EDT on October 8th.\nPOLICY: The September jobs report might have reduced relevance on trading conditions given that Fed officials have effectively confirmed that, barring a collapse in the jobs data, it is on course to announce a tapering of its asset purchases at the November 3rd meeting. Accordingly, trading risks may be skewed to the downside, rather than to the upside, where a significant payrolls miss may present obstacles to the Fed announcing its taper. Additionally, it is worth being cognizant of how efforts in Washington to raise the debt ceiling are progressing; as yet, officials have not struck a deal, and are in the process of enacting stop gap legislation to allow funding into December; some analysts suggest that the Fed may be reticent to tighten policy in the face of potential default risks.\nPAYROLLS:The consensus looks for 500k nonfarm payrolls to be added to the US economy in September (prev. 235k), which would be a cooler rate of growth than the three- and six-month average rate, though in line with the 12-month average (3-month average is 750k/month, the six-month average is 653k/month, and the 12-month average is 503k/month – that technically at least suggests an improving rate of payrolls growth in recent months).Aggregating the nonfarm payrolls data since March 2020, around 5.33mln Americans remain out of work relative to pre-pandemic levels.\nMEASURES OF SLACK:The Unemployment Rate is expected at 5.1% (prev. 5.2%); Labour Force Participation previously at 61.7% vs 63.2% pre-pandemic; U6 measure of underemployment was previously at 8.8% vs 7.0% prepandemic; Employment-population ratio was previously 58.5% vs 61.1% pre-pandemic. These measures of slack are likely to provide more insight into how Fed officials are judging labour market progress, with many in recent months noting that they are closely watching the Underemployment Rate, Participation Rate, and the Employment-Population Ratio for a better handle on the level of slack that remains in the economy. Analysts would be encouraged the closer these get to pre-pandemic levels.\nEARNINGS:Average Hourly Earnings expected at +0.4% M/M (prev. +0.6%); Average Hourly Earnings expected at +4. 6% Y/Y (prev. +4.3%); Average Workweek Hours expected at 34.7hrs (prev. 34.7hrs). Aggregating the nonfarm payrolls data since March 2020, around 5.33mln Americans still remain out of work relative to pre-pandemic levels.\nADP:The ADP National Employment Report showed 568k jobs added to the US economy in September, topping expectations for 428k, and a better pace than the prior 340k (revised down from 374k initially reported). ADP itself said that the labor market recovery continued to make progress despite the marked slowdown in the rate of job additions from the 748k pace seen in Q2. It also noted that Leisure & Hospitality remained one of the biggest beneficiaries to the recovery, though said that hiring was still heavily impacted by the trajectory of the pandemic, especially for small firms. ADP thinks that the current bottlenecks in hiring will likely fade as the pandemic situation continues to improve, and that could set the stage for solid job gains in the months ahead. On the data methodology, analysts continue to note that ADP's model incorporates much of the prior official payrolls data, other macroeconomic variables, as well as data from its own payrolls platform; \"Payrolls were soft in August, thanks to the hit to the services sector from the Delta variant, and that weakness likely constrained ADP data,\" Pantheon Macroeconomics said. \"The overshoot to consensus, therefore, suggests that the other inputs to ADP’s model were stronger than we expected, but none of the details are published, so we don’t know if the overshoot was model-driven or due to stronger employment data at ADP’s clients.\"\nINITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS:Initial jobless claims data for the week that coincides with the BLS jobs report survey window saw claims at around 351k – little changed from the 349k for the August jobs data survey window – where analysts said seasonal factors played a role in boosting the weekly data, while there may have been some lingering Hurricane Ida effects; the corresponding continuing claims data has fallen to 2.802mln in the September survey period vs 2.908mln in the August survey period. In aggregate, the data continues to point to declining trend, although in recent weeks the level of jobless claims has been picking up again.\nBUSINESS SURVEYS: The Services and Manufacturing ISM reports showed divergent trends in September, with the service sector employment sub-index easing a little to 53.0 from 53.7, signalling growth but at a slower rate, while the manufacturing employment sub-index rose back into expansionary territory, printing 50.2 from 49.0 prior. On the manufacturing sector, ISM said companies were still struggling to meet labour-management plans, but noted some modest signs of progress compared to previous months: \"Less than 5% of comments noted improvements regarding employment, compared to none in August,\" it said, \"an overwhelming majority of panelists indicate their companies are hiring or attempting to hire,\" where around 85% of responses were about seeking additional staffing, while nearly half of the respondents expressed difficulty in filling positions, an increase from August. \"The increasing frequency of comments on turnover rates and retirements continued a trend that began in August,\" ISM said. Meanwhile, in the services sector, employment activity rose for a third straight month; respondents noted that employees were flocking to better-paying jobs and there was a lack of pipeline to replace these staff, while other respondents talked of labor shortages being experienced at all levels.\nARGUING FOR A BETTER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT:\n\nEnd of federal enhanced unemployment beneﬁts. The expiration of federal beneﬁts in some states boosted labor supply and job-ﬁnding rates over the summer, and all remaining such programs expired on September 5. The July and August indicated a cumulative 6pp boost to job-ﬁnding probabilities from June to August for workers losing $300 top-up payments and a 12pp boost for workers losing all beneﬁts.Some of the 6mn workers who lost some or all beneﬁts on September 5 got a job by September 18—in time to be counted in tomorrow’s data.Goldman assumes a +200k boost to job growth from this channel, with a larger increase in subsequent reports (+1.3mn cumulatively by year end).\n\n\n\nSchool reopening. The largest 100 school districts are all open for in-person learning, catalyzing the return of many previously furloughed teachers and support staff. While full normalization of employment levels would contribute 600k jobs (mom sa, see left panel of the chart below), some janitors and support staff did not return due to hybrid teaching models, and job openings in the sector are only 200k above the pre-crisis level (see right panel). Relatedly, the BLS’s seasonal factors already embed the usual rehiring of education workers on summer layoff, so if fewer janitors returned to work than in a typical September, this would reduce seasonally adjusted job growth, other things equal. Taken together, assume a roughly 150k boost from the reopening of schools in tomorrow’s report.\n\n\n\nJob availability. The Conference Board labor differential—the difference between the percent of respondents saying jobs are plentiful and those saying jobs are hardto get - edged down to 42.5 from 44.4, still an elevated level. Additionally, JOLTS job openings increased by 749k in July to a new record high of 10.9mn.\nADP.Private sector employment in the ADP report increased by 568k in September, above consensus expectations for a 430k gain, implying strong growth in the underlying ADP sample. Additionally, schools generally do not use ADP payroll software, arguing for a larger gain from school reopening in the official payroll measure.\n\nARGUING FOR A WEAKER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT:\n\nDelta variant.Rebounding covid infection rates weighed on services consumption and the labor market in August. And while US case counts began to decline in early September, restaurant seatings on Open Table rebounded only marginally. leisure and hospitality employment rose in September, but probably not at the ~400k monthly pace of June and July.\nEmployer surveys. The employment components of our business surveys were flat to down, whereas we and consensus forecast a pickup in job growth. Goldman's services survey employment tracker remained unchanged at 54.5 and the manufacturing survey employment tracker declined 0.4pt to 57.8. And while the Goldman Sachs Analyst Index (GSAI) decreased 0.8% to 68.5, the employment component rose1.9% to 71.9.\n\nNEUTRAL FACTORS:\n\nBig Data.High-frequency data on the labor market were mixed between the August and September survey weeks, on net providing little guidance about the underlying pace of job growth. Three of the five measures tracked indicate an at-or-above-consensus gain (Census Small Business Pulse +0.5mn, ADP +0.6mn,Google mobility +2mn), but the Homebase data was an outlier to the downside. At face value, it would indicate a large outright decline in payrolls. The Census Household Pulse (-0.6mn) was also quite weak, though encouragingly, it also indicated a large drop in childcare-related labor supply headwinds as schools reopened.\nSeasonality.The September seasonal hurdle is relatively low: the BLS adjustment factors generally assume a 600-700k decline in private payrolls (which exclude public schools), compared to around -100k on average in July and August. Continued labor shortages encouraged firms to lay off fewer workers at the end of summer. Partially offsetting this tailwind, the September seasonal factors may have evolved unfavorably due to the crisis—specifically by fitting to last September’s reopening-driven job surge (private payrolls +932k mom sa).\nJobless claims.Initial jobless claims fell during the September payroll month, averaging 339k per week vs. 378k in August despite a boost from individuals transitioning or attempting to transition to state programs. Across all employee programs including emergency benefits, continuing claims fell dramatically (-3.3mn)–but again for non-economic reasons (federal enhanced programs expired). Continuing claims in regular state programs decreased 106k from survey week to survey week.\nJob cuts.Announced layoffs reported by Challenger, Gray & Christmas rebounded 11% month-over-month in September after decreasing by 14% over the prior two months (SA by GS). Nonetheless, layoffs remain near the three-decade low on this measure (in 1993).","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2538,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":899457585,"gmtCreate":1628212414147,"gmtModify":1631891999910,"author":{"id":"3582059706803344","authorId":"3582059706803344","name":"YJ12","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/053b18ef264ba18845e0b6ec9727bcb6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582059706803344","authorIdStr":"3582059706803344"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/899457585","repostId":"2157456017","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":356,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168110974,"gmtCreate":1623963806498,"gmtModify":1634025252052,"author":{"id":"3582059706803344","authorId":"3582059706803344","name":"YJ12","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/053b18ef264ba18845e0b6ec9727bcb6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582059706803344","authorIdStr":"3582059706803344"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Pls like and comments thank you&nbsp;","listText":"Pls like and comments thank you&nbsp;","text":"Pls like and comments thank you","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168110974","repostId":"2144742672","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":632,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":194623050,"gmtCreate":1621379051670,"gmtModify":1634192103671,"author":{"id":"3582059706803344","authorId":"3582059706803344","name":"YJ12","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/053b18ef264ba18845e0b6ec9727bcb6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582059706803344","authorIdStr":"3582059706803344"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please like and comments thank you&nbsp;","listText":"Please like and comments thank you&nbsp;","text":"Please like and comments thank you","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/194623050","repostId":"2135161248","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2135161248","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621343169,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2135161248?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-18 21:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"JD.com to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in the Cards?<blockquote>京东将公布第一季度收益：前景如何？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2135161248","media":"Zacks","summary":"JD.com, Inc. is scheduled to report first-quarter 2021 results on May 19.\nFor the first quarter, the","content":"<p><b>JD.com, Inc.</b>&nbsp;is scheduled to report first-quarter 2021 results on May 19.</p><p><blockquote><b>京东公司。</b>定于 5 月 19 日公布 2021 年第一季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> For the first quarter, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $29.9 billion, indicating an improvement of 44.9% from the year-ago reported figure.</p><p><blockquote>Zacks 对第一季度收入的一致预期为 299 亿美元，比去年同期报告的数字增长了 44.9%。</blockquote></p><p> Further, the consensus mark for earnings is pegged at 39 cents per share, indicating a 39.3% rise from the previous-year reported figure.</p><p><blockquote>此外，每股收益的共识为 39 美分，比上一年报告的数字增长了 39.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Notably, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 4.6% in the last reported quarter.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，该公司在上一季度的盈利意外增长了 4.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>JD.com, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise</b></p><p><blockquote><b>京东公司。价格和每股收益惊喜</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1fed1c36f6a8ce20878c0d2e594f77c\" tg-width=\"534\" tg-height=\"262\"><span>JD.com, Inc. price-eps-surprise | JD.com, Inc. Quote</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>京东公司价格-每股收益-惊喜 |京东公司报价</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Key Factors to Note</b></p><p><blockquote><b>需要注意的关键因素</b></blockquote></p><p> The company’s JD Retail segment, comprising the e-commerce business, is expected to have been the key catalyst in the first quarter.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的京东零售部门（包括电子商务业务）预计将成为第一季度的主要催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> The launch of flagship stores of popular fashion and luxury brands like John Lobb, Stefano Ricci, Vivienne Westwoodon and Anya Hindmarch, among others, on JD.com is likely to have driven customer momentum, which in turn is expected to have aided the performance of JD Retail during the quarter-to-be-reported.</p><p><blockquote>John Lobb、Stefano Ricci、Vivienne Westwoodon 和 Anya Hindmarch 等热门时尚和奢侈品牌在京东开设旗舰店可能会推动顾客增长，进而有望帮助京东零售在报告季度的表现。</blockquote></p><p> JD retail’s omni-channel initiatives are anticipated to have contributed well to top-line growth of the segment in the first quarter.</p><p><blockquote>京东零售的全渠道计划预计将极大地促进该部门第一季度的营收增长。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, the company’s collaboration with Italian luxury brands Prada and MiuMiu, which bolstered its omni-channel efforts, might have been a positive.</p><p><blockquote>此外，该公司与意大利奢侈品牌 Prada 和 MiuMiu 的合作，加强了其全渠道业务，这可能是一个积极因素。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, growing momentum of JD health that offers free online medical consultation and online pharmacy retail services is likely to get reflected in the company’s to-be-reported quarter’s results.</p><p><blockquote>此外，京东健康提供免费在线医疗咨询和在线药房零售服务，其发展势头可能会反映在该公司即将公布的季度业绩中。</blockquote></p><p> Growing investments in research and development are also likely to have been encouraging for the company in the quarter under review.</p><p><blockquote>在本季度，不断增长的研发投资也可能对该公司来说是令人鼓舞的。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, the new businesses segment comprising technology, supply chain and logistics services is expected to have helped it in gaining traction across lower-tier cities in the first quarter.</p><p><blockquote>此外，包括技术、供应链和物流服务在内的新业务部门预计将帮助其在第一季度在低线城市获得牵引力。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, the well-performing Jingxi Business Group is expected to have aided JD.com’s performance in the lower-tier cities.</p><p><blockquote>此外，表现良好的京西商业集团有望帮助京东在低线城市的表现。</blockquote></p><p> However, increasing fulfilment, marketing, and research and development expenses are likely to have been major risks to the company’s profitability in the quarter under review.</p><p><blockquote>然而，履行、营销和研发费用的增加很可能是公司本季度盈利能力的主要风险。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, increasing competitive pressure from Alibaba in the e-commerce market might be reflected in first-quarter results.</p><p><blockquote>此外，阿里巴巴-SW在电子商务市场上日益增加的竞争压力可能会反映在第一季度的业绩中。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What Our Model Says</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我们的模型说什么</b></blockquote></p><p> Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for JD.com this time around. The combination of a positiveEarnings ESPand a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with ourEarnings ESP Filter.</p><p><blockquote>我们经过验证的模型并不能最终预测京东这次的盈利会超出预期。正收益扩展 Zacks 排名 #1（强力买入）、2（买入）或 3（持有）的组合会增加收益超出预期的几率。但这里并非如此。使用 ourEarnings ESP 过滤器，您可以在股票被报道之前发现最值得买卖的股票。</blockquote></p><p> JD.com has an Earnings ESP of -14.83% and a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), at present.</p><p><blockquote>京东目前的盈利 ESP 为 -14.83%，Zacks 排名第 5（强力抛售）。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>JD.com to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in the Cards?<blockquote>京东将公布第一季度收益：前景如何？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJD.com to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in the Cards?<blockquote>京东将公布第一季度收益：前景如何？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Zacks</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-18 21:06</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>JD.com, Inc.</b>&nbsp;is scheduled to report first-quarter 2021 results on May 19.</p><p><blockquote><b>京东公司。</b>定于 5 月 19 日公布 2021 年第一季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> For the first quarter, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $29.9 billion, indicating an improvement of 44.9% from the year-ago reported figure.</p><p><blockquote>Zacks 对第一季度收入的一致预期为 299 亿美元，比去年同期报告的数字增长了 44.9%。</blockquote></p><p> Further, the consensus mark for earnings is pegged at 39 cents per share, indicating a 39.3% rise from the previous-year reported figure.</p><p><blockquote>此外，每股收益的共识为 39 美分，比上一年报告的数字增长了 39.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Notably, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 4.6% in the last reported quarter.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，该公司在上一季度的盈利意外增长了 4.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>JD.com, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise</b></p><p><blockquote><b>京东公司。价格和每股收益惊喜</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1fed1c36f6a8ce20878c0d2e594f77c\" tg-width=\"534\" tg-height=\"262\"><span>JD.com, Inc. price-eps-surprise | JD.com, Inc. Quote</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>京东公司价格-每股收益-惊喜 |京东公司报价</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Key Factors to Note</b></p><p><blockquote><b>需要注意的关键因素</b></blockquote></p><p> The company’s JD Retail segment, comprising the e-commerce business, is expected to have been the key catalyst in the first quarter.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的京东零售部门（包括电子商务业务）预计将成为第一季度的主要催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> The launch of flagship stores of popular fashion and luxury brands like John Lobb, Stefano Ricci, Vivienne Westwoodon and Anya Hindmarch, among others, on JD.com is likely to have driven customer momentum, which in turn is expected to have aided the performance of JD Retail during the quarter-to-be-reported.</p><p><blockquote>John Lobb、Stefano Ricci、Vivienne Westwoodon 和 Anya Hindmarch 等热门时尚和奢侈品牌在京东开设旗舰店可能会推动顾客增长，进而有望帮助京东零售在报告季度的表现。</blockquote></p><p> JD retail’s omni-channel initiatives are anticipated to have contributed well to top-line growth of the segment in the first quarter.</p><p><blockquote>京东零售的全渠道计划预计将极大地促进该部门第一季度的营收增长。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, the company’s collaboration with Italian luxury brands Prada and MiuMiu, which bolstered its omni-channel efforts, might have been a positive.</p><p><blockquote>此外，该公司与意大利奢侈品牌 Prada 和 MiuMiu 的合作，加强了其全渠道业务，这可能是一个积极因素。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, growing momentum of JD health that offers free online medical consultation and online pharmacy retail services is likely to get reflected in the company’s to-be-reported quarter’s results.</p><p><blockquote>此外，京东健康提供免费在线医疗咨询和在线药房零售服务，其发展势头可能会反映在该公司即将公布的季度业绩中。</blockquote></p><p> Growing investments in research and development are also likely to have been encouraging for the company in the quarter under review.</p><p><blockquote>在本季度，不断增长的研发投资也可能对该公司来说是令人鼓舞的。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, the new businesses segment comprising technology, supply chain and logistics services is expected to have helped it in gaining traction across lower-tier cities in the first quarter.</p><p><blockquote>此外，包括技术、供应链和物流服务在内的新业务部门预计将帮助其在第一季度在低线城市获得牵引力。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, the well-performing Jingxi Business Group is expected to have aided JD.com’s performance in the lower-tier cities.</p><p><blockquote>此外，表现良好的京西商业集团有望帮助京东在低线城市的表现。</blockquote></p><p> However, increasing fulfilment, marketing, and research and development expenses are likely to have been major risks to the company’s profitability in the quarter under review.</p><p><blockquote>然而，履行、营销和研发费用的增加很可能是公司本季度盈利能力的主要风险。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, increasing competitive pressure from Alibaba in the e-commerce market might be reflected in first-quarter results.</p><p><blockquote>此外，阿里巴巴-SW在电子商务市场上日益增加的竞争压力可能会反映在第一季度的业绩中。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What Our Model Says</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我们的模型说什么</b></blockquote></p><p> Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for JD.com this time around. The combination of a positiveEarnings ESPand a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with ourEarnings ESP Filter.</p><p><blockquote>我们经过验证的模型并不能最终预测京东这次的盈利会超出预期。正收益扩展 Zacks 排名 #1（强力买入）、2（买入）或 3（持有）的组合会增加收益超出预期的几率。但这里并非如此。使用 ourEarnings ESP 过滤器，您可以在股票被报道之前发现最值得买卖的股票。</blockquote></p><p> JD.com has an Earnings ESP of -14.83% and a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), at present.</p><p><blockquote>京东目前的盈利 ESP 为 -14.83%，Zacks 排名第 5（强力抛售）。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/1541348/jdcom-jd-to-report-q1-earnings-whats-in-the-cards?art_rec=quote-stock_overview-zacks_news-ID02-txt-1541348\">Zacks</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"JD":"京东","09618":"京东集团-SW"},"source_url":"https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/1541348/jdcom-jd-to-report-q1-earnings-whats-in-the-cards?art_rec=quote-stock_overview-zacks_news-ID02-txt-1541348","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2135161248","content_text":"JD.com, Inc. is scheduled to report first-quarter 2021 results on May 19.\nFor the first quarter, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $29.9 billion, indicating an improvement of 44.9% from the year-ago reported figure.\nFurther, the consensus mark for earnings is pegged at 39 cents per share, indicating a 39.3% rise from the previous-year reported figure.\nNotably, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 4.6% in the last reported quarter.\nJD.com, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise\nJD.com, Inc. price-eps-surprise | JD.com, Inc. Quote\nKey Factors to Note\nThe company’s JD Retail segment, comprising the e-commerce business, is expected to have been the key catalyst in the first quarter.\nThe launch of flagship stores of popular fashion and luxury brands like John Lobb, Stefano Ricci, Vivienne Westwoodon and Anya Hindmarch, among others, on JD.com is likely to have driven customer momentum, which in turn is expected to have aided the performance of JD Retail during the quarter-to-be-reported.\nJD retail’s omni-channel initiatives are anticipated to have contributed well to top-line growth of the segment in the first quarter.\nMoreover, the company’s collaboration with Italian luxury brands Prada and MiuMiu, which bolstered its omni-channel efforts, might have been a positive.\nFurthermore, growing momentum of JD health that offers free online medical consultation and online pharmacy retail services is likely to get reflected in the company’s to-be-reported quarter’s results.\nGrowing investments in research and development are also likely to have been encouraging for the company in the quarter under review.\nAdditionally, the new businesses segment comprising technology, supply chain and logistics services is expected to have helped it in gaining traction across lower-tier cities in the first quarter.\nMoreover, the well-performing Jingxi Business Group is expected to have aided JD.com’s performance in the lower-tier cities.\nHowever, increasing fulfilment, marketing, and research and development expenses are likely to have been major risks to the company’s profitability in the quarter under review.\nMoreover, increasing competitive pressure from Alibaba in the e-commerce market might be reflected in first-quarter results.\nWhat Our Model Says\nOur proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for JD.com this time around. The combination of a positiveEarnings ESPand a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with ourEarnings ESP Filter.\nJD.com has an Earnings ESP of -14.83% and a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), at present.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"JD":0.9,"09618":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":549,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":195237976,"gmtCreate":1621296616895,"gmtModify":1634192731700,"author":{"id":"3582059706803344","authorId":"3582059706803344","name":"YJ12","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/053b18ef264ba18845e0b6ec9727bcb6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582059706803344","authorIdStr":"3582059706803344"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please like and comments&nbsp;","listText":"Please like and comments&nbsp;","text":"Please like and comments","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/195237976","repostId":"2136295438","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1129,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":805182603,"gmtCreate":1627865616602,"gmtModify":1631891999915,"author":{"id":"3582059706803344","authorId":"3582059706803344","name":"YJ12","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/053b18ef264ba18845e0b6ec9727bcb6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582059706803344","authorIdStr":"3582059706803344"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/805182603","repostId":"1170689665","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170689665","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1627857540,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1170689665?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-02 06:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba,Uber, DraftKings, GM, Roku, EA, ViacomCBS, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>阿里巴巴、Uber、DraftKings、通用汽车、Roku、EA、维亚康姆哥伦比亚广播公司和其他投资者本周值得关注的股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170689665","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"The parade of second-quarter results continues this week. No fewer than 143 S&P 500 companies are on deck to report, in addition to hundreds of small caps. Ferrari, Vornado Realty Trust, Take-Two Interactive Software, and Simon Property Group will get the ball rolling on Monday. Then Lyft, Alibaba Group Holding, Nikola, Under Armour, Eli Lilly, and ConocoPhillips release their results on Tuesday.Wednesday will be particularly busy:General Motors,Uber Technologies,Etsy,Electronic Arts,Western Dig","content":"<p>The parade of second-quarter results continues this week. No fewer than 143 S&amp;P 500 companies are on deck to report, in addition to hundreds of small caps. Ferrari, Vornado Realty Trust, Take-Two Interactive Software, and Simon Property Group will get the ball rolling on Monday. Then Lyft, Alibaba Group Holding, Nikola, Under Armour, Eli Lilly, and ConocoPhillips release their results on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>第二季度业绩游行本周继续。除了数百家小盘股公司外，还有不少于 143 家标普500公司正在提交报告。法拉利、Vornado Realty Trust、Take-Two Interactive Software 和 Simon Property Group 将于周一启动。随后，Lyft、阿里巴巴-SW集团控股公司、尼古拉、安德玛、礼来公司和康菲石油公司将于周二发布业绩。</blockquote></p><p> Wednesday will be particularly busy:General Motors,Uber Technologies,Etsy,Electronic Arts,Western Digital,Roku,CVS Health,Kraft Heinz, and SoftBank all report.Beyond Meat,Yelp,Wayfair, Moderna, and&nbsp;ViacomCBS&nbsp;go on Thursday and&nbsp;DraftKings,Canopy Growth,and Tripadvisor will close the week on Friday.Chinese Education Corporation&nbsp;New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. and&nbsp;TAL Education Group&nbsp;cancels scheduled earnings release and earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>周三将特别繁忙：通用汽车、优步科技、Etsy、艺电、西部数据、Roku、CVS Health、卡夫亨氏和软银均有报道。Beyond Meat、Yelp、Wayfair、Moderna 和 ViacomCBS 将于周四关闭，DraftKings、Canopy Growth 和 Tripadvisor 将于周五关闭本周。中国教育公司新东方教育科技集团公司和好未来教育集团取消了原定的财报发布和财报看涨期权。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94057bf11ca8d7311db6c075ba98727b\" tg-width=\"1706\" tg-height=\"740\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The highlight on the&nbsp;economic&nbsp;calendar this week will be Jobs Friday. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to show a gain of 625,000 nonfarm payrolls in July, following June’s 850,000. The unemployment rate is seen holding just below 6%.</p><p><blockquote>本周经济日历上的亮点将是周五的就业。美国劳工统计局（Bureau of Labor Statistics）预计，继 6 月份的 85 万人之后，7 月份非农就业人数将增加 62.5 万人。失业率略低于6%。</blockquote></p><p> Other data out this week include the Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for July on Monday, followed by the Services equivalent on Wednesday. Both measures of economic activity are forecast to come in at around 61, which would signify strong expansion.</p><p><blockquote>本周公布的其他数据包括周一公布的美国供应管理协会（Institute for Supply Management）7 月份制造业采购经理人指数，随后是周三公布的服务业同等指数。这两项经济活动指标预计都将达到 61 左右，这将意味着强劲的扩张。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Monday 8/2</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期一 8/2</b></blockquote></p><p> CNA Financial,Global Payments,JELD-WEN Holding,Loews,Arista Networks,Leggett &amp; Platt,Vornado Realty Trust, ZoomInfo Technologies, Woodward, Take-Two Interactive Software, Heineken, Trex, Ferrari,Ultra Clean Holdings,and Simon Property Group are expected to release financial results.</p><p><blockquote>CNA Financial、Global Payments、JELD-WEN Holding、Loews、Arista Networks、Leggett &amp; Platt、Vornado Realty Trust、ZoomInfo Technologies、Woodward、Take-Two Interactive Software、Heineken、Trex、Ferrari、Ultra Clean Holdings 和 Simon Property Group 预计将发布财务业绩。</blockquote></p><p> GE stock&nbsp;will open for trading Monday at about $104 a share, after closing Friday at $12.95. The company completed its 1-for-8 reverse stock split Friday evening.</p><p><blockquote>通用电气股票周一开盘价约为每股 104 美元，周五收盘价为 12.95 美元。该公司于周五晚上完成了 1 比 8 的反向股票分割。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Institute for Supply</b>&nbsp;Management releases its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for July. Consensus estimate is for a 60.8 reading, up from 60.6 in June.</p><p><blockquote><b>供应研究所</b>管理层发布 7 月份制造业采购经理人指数。普遍估计读数为 60.8，高于 6 月份的 60.6。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau</b>&nbsp;reports construction spending for June. Expectations are for a 0.4% month-over-month rise, after a 0.3% decline in May.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>报告6月份的建筑支出。继 5 月份下降 0.3% 后，预计环比增长 0.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tuesday 8/3</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二 8/3</b></blockquote></p><p> Eaton, BP, Under Armour, Lyft,Clorox,Amgen,Akamai Technologies,Cummins, Eli Lilly, Alibaba Group Holding, Nikola, EnPro Industries,Warner Music Group,Pitney Bowes,Tennant,Phillips 66,KKR,Gartner,Henry Schein,Dun &amp; Bradstreet Holdings,ConocoPhillips, and&nbsp;Jacobs Engineering Grouphost conference calls to discuss financial results.</p><p><blockquote>伊顿、英国石油公司、安德玛、Lyft、高乐氏、安进、Akamai Technologies、康明斯、礼来公司、阿里巴巴-SW集团控股公司、Nikola、EnPro Industries、华纳音乐集团、Pitney Bowes、Tennant、Phillips 66、KKR、Gartner、Henry Schein、邓白氏控股公司、康菲石油公司和 Jacobs Engineering Group 在评级举办会议讨论财务业绩。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau</b>&nbsp;is slated to report factory orders for June. Economists predict that orders increased 1.0% during the month, compared with a 1.7% rise in May.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>预计将报告六月份的工厂订单。经济学家预测，本月订单增长1.0%，而5月份增长1.7%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wednesday 8/4</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三 8/4</b></blockquote></p><p> Sony Group,CVS Health, Kraft Heinz, SoftBank, General Motors, Progressive, Etsy, Electronic Arts, Western Digital, Uber Technologies, Roku,MGM Resorts International,Fox, and Re/Max Holdings are expected to host earnings calls.</p><p><blockquote>索尼集团、CVS Health、卡夫亨氏、软银、通用汽车、Progressive、Etsy、艺电、西部数据、Uber Technologies、Roku、米高梅国际酒店集团、福克斯和 Re/Max Holdings 预计将主办财报评级。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bureau of Economic</b>&nbsp;Analysis reports light-vehicle sales for July. Expectations call for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 15.3 million vehicles, versus 15.4 million in June.</p><p><blockquote><b>经济局</b>分析报告 7 月份轻型汽车销量。预计看涨期权经季节性调整后的年增长率为 1530 万辆，而 6 月份为 1540 万辆。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The ISM releases</b>&nbsp;its Services PMI for July. Consensus estimate is for a 60.8 reading, compared with June’s 60.1.</p><p><blockquote><b>ISM发布</b>7月份服务业采购经理人指数。一致估计读数为 60.8，而 6 月份的读数为 60.1。</blockquote></p><p> <b>ADP releases</b>&nbsp;its National Employment report for July. Consensus estimate is for a 635,000 gain in nonfarm private-sector employment, following an increase of 692,000 in June.</p><p><blockquote><b>ADP释放</b>其7月份的全国就业报告。普遍估计，继 6 月份增加 692,000 人之后，非农私营部门就业人数将增加 635,000 人。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Thursday 8/5</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四 8/5</b></blockquote></p><p> Zillow Group,Beyond Meat, Yelp, Wayfair, Kellogg,Bayer,HanesBrands, Moderna,Regeneron Pharmaceuticals,Switch,Cushman &amp; Wakefield,ViacomCBS,Cigna,Duke Energy,Square,News Corp,and&nbsp;Siemensare expected to report financial results.</p><p><blockquote>Zillow Group、Beyond Meat、Yelp、Wayfair、Kellogg、Bayer、HanesBrands、Moderna、Regeneron Pharmaceuticals、Switch、Cushman &amp; Wakefield、ViacomCBS、Cigna、Duke Energy、Square、新闻集团和西门子预计将公布财务业绩。</blockquote></p><p> Friday 8/6</p><p><blockquote>星期五 8/6</blockquote></p><p> <b>The BLS releases the jobs report</b>&nbsp;for July. Economists forecast a 800,000 rise in nonfarm payrolls, after an 850,000 gain in June. The unemployment rate is expected to edge down to 5.8% from 5.9%.</p><p><blockquote><b>BLS 发布就业报告</b>七月。经济学家预测，继6月份增加85万人之后，非农就业人数将增加80万人。失业率预计将从5.9%小幅降至5.8%。</blockquote></p><p> DraftKings,Dominion Energy,Gannett,MGM Growth Properties,AMC Networks,Canopy Growth, Tripadvisor,Spectrum Brands Holdings,E.W. Scripps,Cinemark Holdings, and Manitowoc host conference calls to discuss financial results.</p><p><blockquote>DraftKings、Dominion Energy、Gannett、MGM Growth Properties、AMC Networks、Canopy Growth、Tripadvisor、Spectrum Brands Holdings、E.W。Scripps、Cinemark Holdings 和 Manitowoc 主办评级会议讨论财务业绩。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba,Uber, DraftKings, GM, Roku, EA, ViacomCBS, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>阿里巴巴、Uber、DraftKings、通用汽车、Roku、EA、维亚康姆哥伦比亚广播公司和其他投资者本周值得关注的股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba,Uber, DraftKings, GM, Roku, EA, ViacomCBS, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>阿里巴巴、Uber、DraftKings、通用汽车、Roku、EA、维亚康姆哥伦比亚广播公司和其他投资者本周值得关注的股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-02 06:39</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The parade of second-quarter results continues this week. No fewer than 143 S&amp;P 500 companies are on deck to report, in addition to hundreds of small caps. Ferrari, Vornado Realty Trust, Take-Two Interactive Software, and Simon Property Group will get the ball rolling on Monday. Then Lyft, Alibaba Group Holding, Nikola, Under Armour, Eli Lilly, and ConocoPhillips release their results on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>第二季度业绩游行本周继续。除了数百家小盘股公司外，还有不少于 143 家标普500公司正在提交报告。法拉利、Vornado Realty Trust、Take-Two Interactive Software 和 Simon Property Group 将于周一启动。随后，Lyft、阿里巴巴-SW集团控股公司、尼古拉、安德玛、礼来公司和康菲石油公司将于周二发布业绩。</blockquote></p><p> Wednesday will be particularly busy:General Motors,Uber Technologies,Etsy,Electronic Arts,Western Digital,Roku,CVS Health,Kraft Heinz, and SoftBank all report.Beyond Meat,Yelp,Wayfair, Moderna, and&nbsp;ViacomCBS&nbsp;go on Thursday and&nbsp;DraftKings,Canopy Growth,and Tripadvisor will close the week on Friday.Chinese Education Corporation&nbsp;New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. and&nbsp;TAL Education Group&nbsp;cancels scheduled earnings release and earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>周三将特别繁忙：通用汽车、优步科技、Etsy、艺电、西部数据、Roku、CVS Health、卡夫亨氏和软银均有报道。Beyond Meat、Yelp、Wayfair、Moderna 和 ViacomCBS 将于周四关闭，DraftKings、Canopy Growth 和 Tripadvisor 将于周五关闭本周。中国教育公司新东方教育科技集团公司和好未来教育集团取消了原定的财报发布和财报看涨期权。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94057bf11ca8d7311db6c075ba98727b\" tg-width=\"1706\" tg-height=\"740\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The highlight on the&nbsp;economic&nbsp;calendar this week will be Jobs Friday. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to show a gain of 625,000 nonfarm payrolls in July, following June’s 850,000. The unemployment rate is seen holding just below 6%.</p><p><blockquote>本周经济日历上的亮点将是周五的就业。美国劳工统计局（Bureau of Labor Statistics）预计，继 6 月份的 85 万人之后，7 月份非农就业人数将增加 62.5 万人。失业率略低于6%。</blockquote></p><p> Other data out this week include the Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for July on Monday, followed by the Services equivalent on Wednesday. Both measures of economic activity are forecast to come in at around 61, which would signify strong expansion.</p><p><blockquote>本周公布的其他数据包括周一公布的美国供应管理协会（Institute for Supply Management）7 月份制造业采购经理人指数，随后是周三公布的服务业同等指数。这两项经济活动指标预计都将达到 61 左右，这将意味着强劲的扩张。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Monday 8/2</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期一 8/2</b></blockquote></p><p> CNA Financial,Global Payments,JELD-WEN Holding,Loews,Arista Networks,Leggett &amp; Platt,Vornado Realty Trust, ZoomInfo Technologies, Woodward, Take-Two Interactive Software, Heineken, Trex, Ferrari,Ultra Clean Holdings,and Simon Property Group are expected to release financial results.</p><p><blockquote>CNA Financial、Global Payments、JELD-WEN Holding、Loews、Arista Networks、Leggett &amp; Platt、Vornado Realty Trust、ZoomInfo Technologies、Woodward、Take-Two Interactive Software、Heineken、Trex、Ferrari、Ultra Clean Holdings 和 Simon Property Group 预计将发布财务业绩。</blockquote></p><p> GE stock&nbsp;will open for trading Monday at about $104 a share, after closing Friday at $12.95. The company completed its 1-for-8 reverse stock split Friday evening.</p><p><blockquote>通用电气股票周一开盘价约为每股 104 美元，周五收盘价为 12.95 美元。该公司于周五晚上完成了 1 比 8 的反向股票分割。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Institute for Supply</b>&nbsp;Management releases its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for July. Consensus estimate is for a 60.8 reading, up from 60.6 in June.</p><p><blockquote><b>供应研究所</b>管理层发布 7 月份制造业采购经理人指数。普遍估计读数为 60.8，高于 6 月份的 60.6。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau</b>&nbsp;reports construction spending for June. Expectations are for a 0.4% month-over-month rise, after a 0.3% decline in May.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>报告6月份的建筑支出。继 5 月份下降 0.3% 后，预计环比增长 0.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tuesday 8/3</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二 8/3</b></blockquote></p><p> Eaton, BP, Under Armour, Lyft,Clorox,Amgen,Akamai Technologies,Cummins, Eli Lilly, Alibaba Group Holding, Nikola, EnPro Industries,Warner Music Group,Pitney Bowes,Tennant,Phillips 66,KKR,Gartner,Henry Schein,Dun &amp; Bradstreet Holdings,ConocoPhillips, and&nbsp;Jacobs Engineering Grouphost conference calls to discuss financial results.</p><p><blockquote>伊顿、英国石油公司、安德玛、Lyft、高乐氏、安进、Akamai Technologies、康明斯、礼来公司、阿里巴巴-SW集团控股公司、Nikola、EnPro Industries、华纳音乐集团、Pitney Bowes、Tennant、Phillips 66、KKR、Gartner、Henry Schein、邓白氏控股公司、康菲石油公司和 Jacobs Engineering Group 在评级举办会议讨论财务业绩。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau</b>&nbsp;is slated to report factory orders for June. Economists predict that orders increased 1.0% during the month, compared with a 1.7% rise in May.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>预计将报告六月份的工厂订单。经济学家预测，本月订单增长1.0%，而5月份增长1.7%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wednesday 8/4</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三 8/4</b></blockquote></p><p> Sony Group,CVS Health, Kraft Heinz, SoftBank, General Motors, Progressive, Etsy, Electronic Arts, Western Digital, Uber Technologies, Roku,MGM Resorts International,Fox, and Re/Max Holdings are expected to host earnings calls.</p><p><blockquote>索尼集团、CVS Health、卡夫亨氏、软银、通用汽车、Progressive、Etsy、艺电、西部数据、Uber Technologies、Roku、米高梅国际酒店集团、福克斯和 Re/Max Holdings 预计将主办财报评级。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bureau of Economic</b>&nbsp;Analysis reports light-vehicle sales for July. Expectations call for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 15.3 million vehicles, versus 15.4 million in June.</p><p><blockquote><b>经济局</b>分析报告 7 月份轻型汽车销量。预计看涨期权经季节性调整后的年增长率为 1530 万辆，而 6 月份为 1540 万辆。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The ISM releases</b>&nbsp;its Services PMI for July. Consensus estimate is for a 60.8 reading, compared with June’s 60.1.</p><p><blockquote><b>ISM发布</b>7月份服务业采购经理人指数。一致估计读数为 60.8，而 6 月份的读数为 60.1。</blockquote></p><p> <b>ADP releases</b>&nbsp;its National Employment report for July. Consensus estimate is for a 635,000 gain in nonfarm private-sector employment, following an increase of 692,000 in June.</p><p><blockquote><b>ADP释放</b>其7月份的全国就业报告。普遍估计，继 6 月份增加 692,000 人之后，非农私营部门就业人数将增加 635,000 人。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Thursday 8/5</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四 8/5</b></blockquote></p><p> Zillow Group,Beyond Meat, Yelp, Wayfair, Kellogg,Bayer,HanesBrands, Moderna,Regeneron Pharmaceuticals,Switch,Cushman &amp; Wakefield,ViacomCBS,Cigna,Duke Energy,Square,News Corp,and&nbsp;Siemensare expected to report financial results.</p><p><blockquote>Zillow Group、Beyond Meat、Yelp、Wayfair、Kellogg、Bayer、HanesBrands、Moderna、Regeneron Pharmaceuticals、Switch、Cushman &amp; Wakefield、ViacomCBS、Cigna、Duke Energy、Square、新闻集团和西门子预计将公布财务业绩。</blockquote></p><p> Friday 8/6</p><p><blockquote>星期五 8/6</blockquote></p><p> <b>The BLS releases the jobs report</b>&nbsp;for July. Economists forecast a 800,000 rise in nonfarm payrolls, after an 850,000 gain in June. The unemployment rate is expected to edge down to 5.8% from 5.9%.</p><p><blockquote><b>BLS 发布就业报告</b>七月。经济学家预测，继6月份增加85万人之后，非农就业人数将增加80万人。失业率预计将从5.9%小幅降至5.8%。</blockquote></p><p> DraftKings,Dominion Energy,Gannett,MGM Growth Properties,AMC Networks,Canopy Growth, Tripadvisor,Spectrum Brands Holdings,E.W. Scripps,Cinemark Holdings, and Manitowoc host conference calls to discuss financial results.</p><p><blockquote>DraftKings、Dominion Energy、Gannett、MGM Growth Properties、AMC Networks、Canopy Growth、Tripadvisor、Spectrum Brands Holdings、E.W。Scripps、Cinemark Holdings 和 Manitowoc 主办评级会议讨论财务业绩。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DKNG":"DraftKings Inc.","GE":"GE航空航天","UBER":"优步",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BABA":"阿里巴巴",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","GM":"通用汽车","ROKU":"Roku Inc","EA":"艺电"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170689665","content_text":"The parade of second-quarter results continues this week. No fewer than 143 S&P 500 companies are on deck to report, in addition to hundreds of small caps. Ferrari, Vornado Realty Trust, Take-Two Interactive Software, and Simon Property Group will get the ball rolling on Monday. Then Lyft, Alibaba Group Holding, Nikola, Under Armour, Eli Lilly, and ConocoPhillips release their results on Tuesday.\nWednesday will be particularly busy:General Motors,Uber Technologies,Etsy,Electronic Arts,Western Digital,Roku,CVS Health,Kraft Heinz, and SoftBank all report.Beyond Meat,Yelp,Wayfair, Moderna, and ViacomCBS go on Thursday and DraftKings,Canopy Growth,and Tripadvisor will close the week on Friday.Chinese Education Corporation New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. and TAL Education Group cancels scheduled earnings release and earnings call.\n\nThe highlight on the economic calendar this week will be Jobs Friday. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to show a gain of 625,000 nonfarm payrolls in July, following June’s 850,000. The unemployment rate is seen holding just below 6%.\nOther data out this week include the Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for July on Monday, followed by the Services equivalent on Wednesday. Both measures of economic activity are forecast to come in at around 61, which would signify strong expansion.\nMonday 8/2\nCNA Financial,Global Payments,JELD-WEN Holding,Loews,Arista Networks,Leggett & Platt,Vornado Realty Trust, ZoomInfo Technologies, Woodward, Take-Two Interactive Software, Heineken, Trex, Ferrari,Ultra Clean Holdings,and Simon Property Group are expected to release financial results.\nGE stock will open for trading Monday at about $104 a share, after closing Friday at $12.95. The company completed its 1-for-8 reverse stock split Friday evening.\nThe Institute for Supply Management releases its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for July. Consensus estimate is for a 60.8 reading, up from 60.6 in June.\nThe Census Bureau reports construction spending for June. Expectations are for a 0.4% month-over-month rise, after a 0.3% decline in May.\nTuesday 8/3\nEaton, BP, Under Armour, Lyft,Clorox,Amgen,Akamai Technologies,Cummins, Eli Lilly, Alibaba Group Holding, Nikola, EnPro Industries,Warner Music Group,Pitney Bowes,Tennant,Phillips 66,KKR,Gartner,Henry Schein,Dun & Bradstreet Holdings,ConocoPhillips, and Jacobs Engineering Grouphost conference calls to discuss financial results.\nThe Census Bureau is slated to report factory orders for June. Economists predict that orders increased 1.0% during the month, compared with a 1.7% rise in May.\nWednesday 8/4\nSony Group,CVS Health, Kraft Heinz, SoftBank, General Motors, Progressive, Etsy, Electronic Arts, Western Digital, Uber Technologies, Roku,MGM Resorts International,Fox, and Re/Max Holdings are expected to host earnings calls.\nThe Bureau of Economic Analysis reports light-vehicle sales for July. Expectations call for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 15.3 million vehicles, versus 15.4 million in June.\nThe ISM releases its Services PMI for July. Consensus estimate is for a 60.8 reading, compared with June’s 60.1.\nADP releases its National Employment report for July. Consensus estimate is for a 635,000 gain in nonfarm private-sector employment, following an increase of 692,000 in June.\nThursday 8/5\nZillow Group,Beyond Meat, Yelp, Wayfair, Kellogg,Bayer,HanesBrands, Moderna,Regeneron Pharmaceuticals,Switch,Cushman & Wakefield,ViacomCBS,Cigna,Duke Energy,Square,News Corp,and Siemensare expected to report financial results.\nFriday 8/6\nThe BLS releases the jobs report for July. Economists forecast a 800,000 rise in nonfarm payrolls, after an 850,000 gain in June. The unemployment rate is expected to edge down to 5.8% from 5.9%.\nDraftKings,Dominion Energy,Gannett,MGM Growth Properties,AMC Networks,Canopy Growth, Tripadvisor,Spectrum Brands Holdings,E.W. Scripps,Cinemark Holdings, and Manitowoc host conference calls to discuss financial results.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ROKU":0.9,"BABA":0.9,"DKNG":0.9,"GE":0.9,"EA":0.9,"VIAC":0.9,"UBER":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"GM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":606,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162669948,"gmtCreate":1624061635384,"gmtModify":1634023459025,"author":{"id":"3582059706803344","authorId":"3582059706803344","name":"YJ12","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/053b18ef264ba18845e0b6ec9727bcb6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582059706803344","authorIdStr":"3582059706803344"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Pls like and comments thank you&nbsp;","listText":"Pls like and comments thank you&nbsp;","text":"Pls like and comments thank you","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162669948","repostId":"2144774740","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2144774740","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"The leading daily newsletter for the latest financial and business news. 33Yrs Helping Stock Investors with Investing Insights, Tools, News & More.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Investors","id":"1085713068","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/608dd68a89ed486e18f64efe3136266c"},"pubTimestamp":1624030096,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2144774740?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 23:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Adobe Getting Lift From Economic Reopening Post-Pandemic<blockquote>Adobe 从疫情后经济重新开放中获得提振</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144774740","media":"Investors","summary":"Software giant Adobe is benefiting as the economy reopens following the Covid-19 pandemic, a senior executive says.","content":"<p>Software giant <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a></b> is benefiting as the economy reopens as the Covid-19 pandemic wanes, a senior executive says. The company's beat-and-raise quarterly report provided proof of that. ADBE stock jumped on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>软件巨头<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">土坯</a></b>一位高级管理人员表示，随着 Covid-19 大流行的减弱，经济重新开放将受益。该公司的击败加薪季度报告提供了证据。ADBE 股价周五上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The maker of digital media and marketing software late Thursday reported fiscal second-quarter earnings that easily topped expectations. Adobe also guided above views for the current quarter.</p><p><blockquote>这家数字媒体和营销软件制造商周四晚间公布的第二财季收益轻松超出预期。Adobe 还指导了本季度的上述观点。</blockquote></p><p> The San Jose, Calif.-based company earned an adjusted $3.03 a share on sales of $3.84 billion in the quarter ended June 4. On a year-over-year basis, Adobe earnings rose 24% while sales climbed 23%.</p><p><blockquote>这家总部位于加利福尼亚州圣何塞的公司调整后每股收益为 3.03 美元，截至 6 月 4 日的季度销售额为 38.4 亿美元。与去年同期相比，Adobe 盈利增长 24%，销售额增长 23%。</blockquote></p><p> For the current quarter, Adobe expects to earn an adjusted $3 a share, up 17%, on sales of $3.88 billion, up 20%.</p><p><blockquote>本季度，Adobe 预计调整后每股收益为 3 美元，增长 17%，销售额为 38.8 亿美元，增长 20%。</blockquote></p><p> <h2>ADBE Stock Rises After Earnings Report</h2> In morning trading on the stock market today, ADBE stock advanced 2.2%, near 563.35. Earlier in the session, ADBE stock notched a record high 570.</p><p><blockquote><h2>收益报告发布后 ADBE 股价上涨</h2>今天股市早盘交易中，ADBE 股价上涨 2.2%，接近 563.35。盘中早些时候，ADBE 股价创下 570 点的历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> \"All three of our businesses — Creative Cloud, Document Cloud and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EXP.AU\">Experience</a> Cloud — just killed it this quarter with excellent performance,\" Chief Financial Officer John Murphy told Investor's Business Daily. \"Content creation and customer experience engagement in personalized ways are resonating across all of our businesses. And it's really driving the momentum and acceleration in the business.\"</p><p><blockquote>“我们的所有三个业务——创意云、文档云和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EXP.AU\">经验</a>云——本季度以出色的表现杀死了它，”首席财务官约翰·墨菲告诉《投资者商业日报》。“以个性化的方式创建内容和客户体验参与正在我们所有的业务中引起共鸣。它确实推动了业务的势头和加速。”</blockquote></p><p> That momentum will continue in the company's seasonally weaker fiscal third quarter, Murphy said. The current quarter includes the summer months of June, July and August.</p><p><blockquote>墨菲表示，这种势头将在公司季节性疲软的第三财季继续下去。本季度包括夏季的六月、七月和八月。</blockquote></p><p> \"The macroeconomic stability is giving a lot of enterprises confidence to invest again,\" Murphy said. \"Companies are prioritizing digital transformation.\"</p><p><blockquote>“宏观经济的稳定给了许多企业再次投资的信心，”墨菲说。“企业正在优先考虑数字化转型。”</blockquote></p><p> The reopening of the economy and return to offices after the pandemic should provide a tailwind for Adobe's business, he said.</p><p><blockquote>他说，疫情后经济的重新开放和办公室的重返应该会为 Adobe 的业务提供推动力。</blockquote></p><p> <h2>Analysts Raise Price Targets On Adobe Stock</h2> At least 15 Wall Street analysts raised their price targets on ADBE stock after the earnings report.</p><p><blockquote><h2>分析师上调 Adobe 股票目标价</h2>财报发布后，至少 15 名华尔街分析师上调了 ADBE 股票的目标价。</blockquote></p><p> Mizuho Securities analyst Gregg Moskowitz reiterated his buy rating on ADBE stock and upped his price target to 640 from 600.</p><p><blockquote>瑞穗证券分析师 Gregg Moskowitz 重申了对 ADBE 股票的买入评级，并将目标价从 600 点上调至 640 点。</blockquote></p><p> \"Adobe's expansive portfolio of software solutions has made it the gold standard in content creation, consumption, and collaboration,\" Moskowitz said in a note to clients. \"Adobe is very well positioned to benefit from digital transformation with its comprehensive end-to-end offering that differentiates it from competitors.\"</p><p><blockquote>莫斯科维茨在给客户的一份报告中表示：“Adobe 广泛的软件解决方案组合使其成为内容创建、消费和协作的黄金标准。”“Adobe 完全有能力从数字化转型中受益，其全面的端到端产品使其与竞争对手区分开来。”</blockquote></p><p> On June 11, ADBE stock broke out of a 40-week&nbsp;consolidation period&nbsp;at a&nbsp;buy point&nbsp;of 536.98, according to&nbsp;IBD MarketSmith charts.</p><p><blockquote>根据 IBD MarketSmith 图表，6 月 11 日，ADBE 股票以 536.98 的买入点突破了 40 周盘整期。</blockquote></p><p> However, IBD Leaderboard analysis offered investors an earlier buy point of 525.54 from a cup base within the larger consolidation pattern.</p><p><blockquote>然而，IBD 排行榜分析为投资者提供了 525.54 的早期买入点，该买入点来自较大的盘整模式中的杯子基数。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAdobe Getting Lift From Economic Reopening Post-Pandemic<blockquote>Adobe 从疫情后经济重新开放中获得提振</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/608dd68a89ed486e18f64efe3136266c);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Investors </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-18 23:28</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Software giant <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a></b> is benefiting as the economy reopens as the Covid-19 pandemic wanes, a senior executive says. The company's beat-and-raise quarterly report provided proof of that. ADBE stock jumped on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>软件巨头<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">土坯</a></b>一位高级管理人员表示，随着 Covid-19 大流行的减弱，经济重新开放将受益。该公司的击败加薪季度报告提供了证据。ADBE 股价周五上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The maker of digital media and marketing software late Thursday reported fiscal second-quarter earnings that easily topped expectations. Adobe also guided above views for the current quarter.</p><p><blockquote>这家数字媒体和营销软件制造商周四晚间公布的第二财季收益轻松超出预期。Adobe 还指导了本季度的上述观点。</blockquote></p><p> The San Jose, Calif.-based company earned an adjusted $3.03 a share on sales of $3.84 billion in the quarter ended June 4. On a year-over-year basis, Adobe earnings rose 24% while sales climbed 23%.</p><p><blockquote>这家总部位于加利福尼亚州圣何塞的公司调整后每股收益为 3.03 美元，截至 6 月 4 日的季度销售额为 38.4 亿美元。与去年同期相比，Adobe 盈利增长 24%，销售额增长 23%。</blockquote></p><p> For the current quarter, Adobe expects to earn an adjusted $3 a share, up 17%, on sales of $3.88 billion, up 20%.</p><p><blockquote>本季度，Adobe 预计调整后每股收益为 3 美元，增长 17%，销售额为 38.8 亿美元，增长 20%。</blockquote></p><p> <h2>ADBE Stock Rises After Earnings Report</h2> In morning trading on the stock market today, ADBE stock advanced 2.2%, near 563.35. Earlier in the session, ADBE stock notched a record high 570.</p><p><blockquote><h2>收益报告发布后 ADBE 股价上涨</h2>今天股市早盘交易中，ADBE 股价上涨 2.2%，接近 563.35。盘中早些时候，ADBE 股价创下 570 点的历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> \"All three of our businesses — Creative Cloud, Document Cloud and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EXP.AU\">Experience</a> Cloud — just killed it this quarter with excellent performance,\" Chief Financial Officer John Murphy told Investor's Business Daily. \"Content creation and customer experience engagement in personalized ways are resonating across all of our businesses. And it's really driving the momentum and acceleration in the business.\"</p><p><blockquote>“我们的所有三个业务——创意云、文档云和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EXP.AU\">经验</a>云——本季度以出色的表现杀死了它，”首席财务官约翰·墨菲告诉《投资者商业日报》。“以个性化的方式创建内容和客户体验参与正在我们所有的业务中引起共鸣。它确实推动了业务的势头和加速。”</blockquote></p><p> That momentum will continue in the company's seasonally weaker fiscal third quarter, Murphy said. The current quarter includes the summer months of June, July and August.</p><p><blockquote>墨菲表示，这种势头将在公司季节性疲软的第三财季继续下去。本季度包括夏季的六月、七月和八月。</blockquote></p><p> \"The macroeconomic stability is giving a lot of enterprises confidence to invest again,\" Murphy said. \"Companies are prioritizing digital transformation.\"</p><p><blockquote>“宏观经济的稳定给了许多企业再次投资的信心，”墨菲说。“企业正在优先考虑数字化转型。”</blockquote></p><p> The reopening of the economy and return to offices after the pandemic should provide a tailwind for Adobe's business, he said.</p><p><blockquote>他说，疫情后经济的重新开放和办公室的重返应该会为 Adobe 的业务提供推动力。</blockquote></p><p> <h2>Analysts Raise Price Targets On Adobe Stock</h2> At least 15 Wall Street analysts raised their price targets on ADBE stock after the earnings report.</p><p><blockquote><h2>分析师上调 Adobe 股票目标价</h2>财报发布后，至少 15 名华尔街分析师上调了 ADBE 股票的目标价。</blockquote></p><p> Mizuho Securities analyst Gregg Moskowitz reiterated his buy rating on ADBE stock and upped his price target to 640 from 600.</p><p><blockquote>瑞穗证券分析师 Gregg Moskowitz 重申了对 ADBE 股票的买入评级，并将目标价从 600 点上调至 640 点。</blockquote></p><p> \"Adobe's expansive portfolio of software solutions has made it the gold standard in content creation, consumption, and collaboration,\" Moskowitz said in a note to clients. \"Adobe is very well positioned to benefit from digital transformation with its comprehensive end-to-end offering that differentiates it from competitors.\"</p><p><blockquote>莫斯科维茨在给客户的一份报告中表示：“Adobe 广泛的软件解决方案组合使其成为内容创建、消费和协作的黄金标准。”“Adobe 完全有能力从数字化转型中受益，其全面的端到端产品使其与竞争对手区分开来。”</blockquote></p><p> On June 11, ADBE stock broke out of a 40-week&nbsp;consolidation period&nbsp;at a&nbsp;buy point&nbsp;of 536.98, according to&nbsp;IBD MarketSmith charts.</p><p><blockquote>根据 IBD MarketSmith 图表，6 月 11 日，ADBE 股票以 536.98 的买入点突破了 40 周盘整期。</blockquote></p><p> However, IBD Leaderboard analysis offered investors an earlier buy point of 525.54 from a cup base within the larger consolidation pattern.</p><p><blockquote>然而，IBD 排行榜分析为投资者提供了 525.54 的早期买入点，该买入点来自较大的盘整模式中的杯子基数。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ADBE":"Adobe"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2144774740","content_text":"Software giant Adobe is benefiting as the economy reopens as the Covid-19 pandemic wanes, a senior executive says. The company's beat-and-raise quarterly report provided proof of that. ADBE stock jumped on Friday.\nThe maker of digital media and marketing software late Thursday reported fiscal second-quarter earnings that easily topped expectations. Adobe also guided above views for the current quarter.\nThe San Jose, Calif.-based company earned an adjusted $3.03 a share on sales of $3.84 billion in the quarter ended June 4. On a year-over-year basis, Adobe earnings rose 24% while sales climbed 23%.\nFor the current quarter, Adobe expects to earn an adjusted $3 a share, up 17%, on sales of $3.88 billion, up 20%.\nADBE Stock Rises After Earnings Report\nIn morning trading on the stock market today, ADBE stock advanced 2.2%, near 563.35. Earlier in the session, ADBE stock notched a record high 570.\n\"All three of our businesses — Creative Cloud, Document Cloud and Experience Cloud — just killed it this quarter with excellent performance,\" Chief Financial Officer John Murphy told Investor's Business Daily. \"Content creation and customer experience engagement in personalized ways are resonating across all of our businesses. And it's really driving the momentum and acceleration in the business.\"\nThat momentum will continue in the company's seasonally weaker fiscal third quarter, Murphy said. The current quarter includes the summer months of June, July and August.\n\"The macroeconomic stability is giving a lot of enterprises confidence to invest again,\" Murphy said. \"Companies are prioritizing digital transformation.\"\nThe reopening of the economy and return to offices after the pandemic should provide a tailwind for Adobe's business, he said.\nAnalysts Raise Price Targets On Adobe Stock\nAt least 15 Wall Street analysts raised their price targets on ADBE stock after the earnings report.\nMizuho Securities analyst Gregg Moskowitz reiterated his buy rating on ADBE stock and upped his price target to 640 from 600.\n\"Adobe's expansive portfolio of software solutions has made it the gold standard in content creation, consumption, and collaboration,\" Moskowitz said in a note to clients. \"Adobe is very well positioned to benefit from digital transformation with its comprehensive end-to-end offering that differentiates it from competitors.\"\nOn June 11, ADBE stock broke out of a 40-week consolidation period at a buy point of 536.98, according to IBD MarketSmith charts.\nHowever, IBD Leaderboard analysis offered investors an earlier buy point of 525.54 from a cup base within the larger consolidation pattern.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ADBE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":656,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}