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2021-07-09

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2021-06-21

Hello there! Nice to be here with other Tigermembers !

2021-06-15

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2021-06-13

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2021-06-13

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Snowflake Is a Growth Juggernaut. Wall Street Is Thinking About Stock Value.<blockquote>雪花是一个增长巨人。华尔街正在考虑股票价值。</blockquote>

2021-06-13

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2021-06-13

I love tiger , comment and like

Meme Stock Soars 1,000% To Lead These Two Top Small Cap Stock Plays<blockquote>Meme股票飙升1,000%，领跑这两只顶级小盘股</blockquote>

2021-06-12

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2021-06-11

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2021-06-10

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2021-06-08

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2021-06-04

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Why markets have been stuck, and what might get them moving again<blockquote>为什么市场陷入困境，以及什么可能让它们再次上涨</blockquote>

2021-06-04

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Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider<blockquote>10年后苹果股票会在哪里？要考虑什么</blockquote>

2021-06-01

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2021-05-31

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2021-05-31

Let’s go btc

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2021-05-31

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2021-05-29

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2021-05-28

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2021-05-27

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Wall Street Is Thinking About Stock Value.<blockquote>雪花是一个增长巨人。华尔街正在考虑股票价值。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189143522","media":"Barron's","summary":"Snowflake remains one of the best growth stories in the history of the software business, and that h","content":"<p>Snowflake remains one of the best growth stories in the history of the software business, and that has Wall Street talking about the stock’s valuation.</p><p><blockquote>Snowflake仍然是软件行业历史上最好的增长故事之一，这让华尔街开始谈论该股的估值。</blockquote></p><p> In meeting with analysts on Thursday,the cloud-data software company provided an ambitious goalof reaching $10 billion in product revenue in the January 2029 fiscal year. That compares to $554 million forthe January 2021 fiscal year.</p><p><blockquote>在周四与分析师会面时，这家云数据软件公司提出了一个雄心勃勃的目标，即在2029年1月财年实现产品收入100亿美元。相比之下，2021年1月财年的收入为5.54亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Snowflake (ticker: SNOW) should still be growing 30% at the top-line at that point, according to chief financial officer Mike Scarpelli, while generating 10% operating margins and free cash flow margins of 15% or better. He also said the company now sees a total addressable market of $90 billion, an expansion of more than 10% from the $81 billion estimated market size cited during its IPO roadshow in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>Snowflake（股票代码：SNOW）首席财务官Mike Scarpelli表示，届时营收仍应增长30%，同时产生10%的营业利润率和15%或更高的自由现金流利润率。他还表示，该公司目前预计潜在市场总额为900亿美元，比2020年IPO路演期间估计的810亿美元市场规模增长了10%以上。</blockquote></p><p> The long-term growth goals help frame the huge opportunity that Snowflake has ahead, but did nothing to change the fundamental debate about the stock: Does the impressive growth rate—120% in product revenue in the latest year— justify the massive valuation? In afternoon trading Friday, shares were off 4.4%, to $237.84.</p><p><blockquote>长期增长目标有助于构建Snowflake未来的巨大机遇，但并没有改变有关该股的根本争论：令人印象深刻的增长率（最近一年产品收入120%）是否证明了巨大的估值是合理的？周五下午交易中，股价下跌4.4%，至237.84美元。</blockquote></p><p> Canaccord Genuity analyst David Hynes notes that if Snowflake hits its $10 billion target, it would be the fastest that a software company has reached that size. Hynes adds that the history of the management team, led by CEO Frank Slootman, suggests Snowflake could reach its target early.</p><p><blockquote>Canaccord Genuity分析师David Hynes指出，如果Snowflake达到100亿美元的目标，这将是软件公司达到这一规模的最快速度。Hynes补充说，由首席执行官Frank Slootman领导的管理团队的历史表明Snowflake可能会提前实现其目标。</blockquote></p><p> But Hynes nonetheless is sticking with his Hold rating and $240 target price. “There’s no doubt that this is an exceptional business, but in our view, the stock’s current valuation”—about 47 times estimated calendar 2022 revenues—“fully reflects it.” He adds that as estimates move higher and the stock grinds sideways, he’s “getting closer to an upgrade,” but isn’t there yet. “We’re content to wait for more of the excess to burn off.”</p><p><blockquote>但海因斯仍然坚持持有评级和240美元的目标价。“毫无疑问，这是一项特殊的业务，但在我们看来，该股目前的估值”——约为2022年预计收入的47倍——“充分反映了这一点”。他补充说，随着预期上升和股价横盘整理，他“越来越接近升级”，但还没有达到。“我们满足于等待更多多余的东西被烧掉。”</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, Morgan Stanley analyst Keith Weiss writes in a research note that given the 120% product growth in fiscal 2021, the $10 billion target might be conservative. He adds that “the harder part of the equation may be justifying the valuation based on these targets.” Weiss says the model that Snowflake laid out implies $1.6 billion in free cash flow in fiscal 2029, which values the stock at 51 times free cash flow 8 years out. “While very impressed by the market opportunity …and Snowflake’s opportunity,” he says valuation keeps him on the sidelines. Weiss repeats his Equal Weigh rating and $270 price target.</p><p><blockquote>同样，摩根士丹利分析师Keith Weiss在一份研究报告中写道，鉴于2021财年120%的产品增长，100亿美元的目标可能是保守的。他补充说，“等式中更困难的部分可能是证明基于这些目标的估值的合理性。”Weiss表示，Snowflake制定的模型意味着2029财年的自由现金流为16亿美元，这意味着该股8年后自由现金流的估值为51倍。“虽然对市场机会……以及雪花的机会印象深刻，”他表示，估值让他保持观望。Weiss重申了同等权重评级和270美元的目标价。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Snowflake Is a Growth Juggernaut. 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Wall Street Is Thinking About Stock Value.<blockquote>雪花是一个增长巨人。华尔街正在考虑股票价值。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-13 00:01</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Snowflake remains one of the best growth stories in the history of the software business, and that has Wall Street talking about the stock’s valuation.</p><p><blockquote>Snowflake仍然是软件行业历史上最好的增长故事之一，这让华尔街开始谈论该股的估值。</blockquote></p><p> In meeting with analysts on Thursday,the cloud-data software company provided an ambitious goalof reaching $10 billion in product revenue in the January 2029 fiscal year. That compares to $554 million forthe January 2021 fiscal year.</p><p><blockquote>在周四与分析师会面时，这家云数据软件公司提出了一个雄心勃勃的目标，即在2029年1月财年实现产品收入100亿美元。相比之下，2021年1月财年的收入为5.54亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Snowflake (ticker: SNOW) should still be growing 30% at the top-line at that point, according to chief financial officer Mike Scarpelli, while generating 10% operating margins and free cash flow margins of 15% or better. He also said the company now sees a total addressable market of $90 billion, an expansion of more than 10% from the $81 billion estimated market size cited during its IPO roadshow in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>Snowflake（股票代码：SNOW）首席财务官Mike Scarpelli表示，届时营收仍应增长30%，同时产生10%的营业利润率和15%或更高的自由现金流利润率。他还表示，该公司目前预计潜在市场总额为900亿美元，比2020年IPO路演期间估计的810亿美元市场规模增长了10%以上。</blockquote></p><p> The long-term growth goals help frame the huge opportunity that Snowflake has ahead, but did nothing to change the fundamental debate about the stock: Does the impressive growth rate—120% in product revenue in the latest year— justify the massive valuation? In afternoon trading Friday, shares were off 4.4%, to $237.84.</p><p><blockquote>长期增长目标有助于构建Snowflake未来的巨大机遇，但并没有改变有关该股的根本争论：令人印象深刻的增长率（最近一年产品收入120%）是否证明了巨大的估值是合理的？周五下午交易中，股价下跌4.4%，至237.84美元。</blockquote></p><p> Canaccord Genuity analyst David Hynes notes that if Snowflake hits its $10 billion target, it would be the fastest that a software company has reached that size. Hynes adds that the history of the management team, led by CEO Frank Slootman, suggests Snowflake could reach its target early.</p><p><blockquote>Canaccord Genuity分析师David Hynes指出，如果Snowflake达到100亿美元的目标，这将是软件公司达到这一规模的最快速度。Hynes补充说，由首席执行官Frank Slootman领导的管理团队的历史表明Snowflake可能会提前实现其目标。</blockquote></p><p> But Hynes nonetheless is sticking with his Hold rating and $240 target price. “There’s no doubt that this is an exceptional business, but in our view, the stock’s current valuation”—about 47 times estimated calendar 2022 revenues—“fully reflects it.” He adds that as estimates move higher and the stock grinds sideways, he’s “getting closer to an upgrade,” but isn’t there yet. “We’re content to wait for more of the excess to burn off.”</p><p><blockquote>但海因斯仍然坚持持有评级和240美元的目标价。“毫无疑问，这是一项特殊的业务，但在我们看来，该股目前的估值”——约为2022年预计收入的47倍——“充分反映了这一点”。他补充说，随着预期上升和股价横盘整理，他“越来越接近升级”，但还没有达到。“我们满足于等待更多多余的东西被烧掉。”</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, Morgan Stanley analyst Keith Weiss writes in a research note that given the 120% product growth in fiscal 2021, the $10 billion target might be conservative. He adds that “the harder part of the equation may be justifying the valuation based on these targets.” Weiss says the model that Snowflake laid out implies $1.6 billion in free cash flow in fiscal 2029, which values the stock at 51 times free cash flow 8 years out. “While very impressed by the market opportunity …and Snowflake’s opportunity,” he says valuation keeps him on the sidelines. Weiss repeats his Equal Weigh rating and $270 price target.</p><p><blockquote>同样，摩根士丹利分析师Keith Weiss在一份研究报告中写道，鉴于2021财年120%的产品增长，100亿美元的目标可能是保守的。他补充说，“等式中更困难的部分可能是证明基于这些目标的估值的合理性。”Weiss表示，Snowflake制定的模型意味着2029财年的自由现金流为16亿美元，这意味着该股8年后自由现金流的估值为51倍。“虽然对市场机会……以及雪花的机会印象深刻，”他表示，估值让他保持观望。Weiss重申了同等权重评级和270美元的目标价。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/snowflake-is-a-growth-juggernaut-wall-street-is-thinking-about-stock-value-51623432689?siteid=yhoof2\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SNOW":"Snowflake"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/snowflake-is-a-growth-juggernaut-wall-street-is-thinking-about-stock-value-51623432689?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189143522","content_text":"Snowflake remains one of the best growth stories in the history of the software business, and that has Wall Street talking about the stock’s valuation.\nIn meeting with analysts on Thursday,the cloud-data software company provided an ambitious goalof reaching $10 billion in product revenue in the January 2029 fiscal year. That compares to $554 million forthe January 2021 fiscal year.\nSnowflake (ticker: SNOW) should still be growing 30% at the top-line at that point, according to chief financial officer Mike Scarpelli, while generating 10% operating margins and free cash flow margins of 15% or better. He also said the company now sees a total addressable market of $90 billion, an expansion of more than 10% from the $81 billion estimated market size cited during its IPO roadshow in 2020.\nThe long-term growth goals help frame the huge opportunity that Snowflake has ahead, but did nothing to change the fundamental debate about the stock: Does the impressive growth rate—120% in product revenue in the latest year— justify the massive valuation? In afternoon trading Friday, shares were off 4.4%, to $237.84.\nCanaccord Genuity analyst David Hynes notes that if Snowflake hits its $10 billion target, it would be the fastest that a software company has reached that size. Hynes adds that the history of the management team, led by CEO Frank Slootman, suggests Snowflake could reach its target early.\nBut Hynes nonetheless is sticking with his Hold rating and $240 target price. “There’s no doubt that this is an exceptional business, but in our view, the stock’s current valuation”—about 47 times estimated calendar 2022 revenues—“fully reflects it.” He adds that as estimates move higher and the stock grinds sideways, he’s “getting closer to an upgrade,” but isn’t there yet. “We’re content to wait for more of the excess to burn off.”\nLikewise, Morgan Stanley analyst Keith Weiss writes in a research note that given the 120% product growth in fiscal 2021, the $10 billion target might be conservative. He adds that “the harder part of the equation may be justifying the valuation based on these targets.” Weiss says the model that Snowflake laid out implies $1.6 billion in free cash flow in fiscal 2029, which values the stock at 51 times free cash flow 8 years out. “While very impressed by the market opportunity …and Snowflake’s opportunity,” he says valuation keeps him on the sidelines. Weiss repeats his Equal Weigh rating and $270 price target.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SNOW":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1668,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182246910,"gmtCreate":1623582521630,"gmtModify":1631889813864,"author":{"id":"3582026584233746","authorId":"3582026584233746","name":"cookiemonstr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfdda60d9914bdbf35bd08fe9ee92d34","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582026584233746","idStr":"3582026584233746"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"like n comment thanks&nbsp;","listText":"like n comment thanks&nbsp;","text":"like n comment thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/182246910","repostId":"1143408374","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1752,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182249557,"gmtCreate":1623582159979,"gmtModify":1631889813874,"author":{"id":"3582026584233746","authorId":"3582026584233746","name":"cookiemonstr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfdda60d9914bdbf35bd08fe9ee92d34","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582026584233746","idStr":"3582026584233746"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I love tiger , comment and like","listText":"I love tiger , comment and like","text":"I love tiger , comment and like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/182249557","repostId":"1185020128","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185020128","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623537503,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1185020128?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-13 06:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Meme Stock Soars 1,000% To Lead These Two Top Small Cap Stock Plays<blockquote>Meme股票飙升1,000%，领跑这两只顶级小盘股</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185020128","media":"investors","summary":"GameStop may be the top holding in SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Value, but that's not the only reason the ","content":"<p>GameStop may be the top holding in SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Value, but that's not the only reason the ETF is beating its growth-stock counterpart.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站可能是SPDR S&amp;P 600小型股价值中最大的持股，但这并不是该ETF击败成长型股票的唯一原因。</blockquote></p><p> The $4.2 billion value fund tracks the S&amp;P SmallCap 600 Value Index (SLYV), composed of stocks with the strongest value traits based on book value to price ratio, earnings to price ratio, and sales to price ratio. SLYV rallied 32% this year through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>这只价值42亿美元的价值基金追踪S&amp;P SmallCap 600价值指数(SLYV)，该指数由根据账面价值与价格比率、市盈率和销售价格比率具有最强价值特征的股票组成。截至周四收盘，SLYV今年上涨了32%。</blockquote></p><p> That more than doubles the return of its growth stock counterpart, SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth (SLYG), which is up 15%. The index SLYG tracks includes stocks with the strongest growth traits based on sales growth, earnings change to price and momentum.</p><p><blockquote>这是成长型股票SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth(SLYG)回报率的两倍多，后者上涨了15%。SLYG跟踪的指数包括基于销售增长、盈利价格变化和动量的增长特征最强的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Back to SLYV, financials accounted for the biggest sector weight at 24% of assets. Industrials weighed in at about 17%, consumer discretionary 15% and real estate 10%. Information technology was next at 8% and materials, energy and health care, 6% each.&nbsp;Smaller positions in consumer staples, utilities and communication services made up the rest.</p><p><blockquote>回到SLYV，金融业占资产比重最大，占资产的24%。工业股约占17%，非必需消费品股15%，房地产股10%。其次是信息技术，占8%，材料、能源和医疗保健，各占6%。消费品、公用事业和通信服务的较小头寸占其余部分。</blockquote></p><p> SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Value is in IBD's ETF Leaders, but SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth is not.</p><p><blockquote>SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Value位居IBD ETF领先者之列，但SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth则不然。</blockquote></p><p> <b>GameStop Stock Leads</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站股票领先</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>GameStop</b>(GME),<b>Macy's</b>(M),<b>PDC Energy</b>(PDCE),<b>Resideo Technologies</b>(REZI) and<b>BankUnited</b>(BKU) were the top five holdings as of Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站</b>（GME），<b>梅西百货</b>(M)，<b>PDC能源</b>（PDCE），<b>Resideo技术</b>（雷齐）和<b>联合银行</b>(BKU)是截至周三的前五大持股。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Pacific Premier Bancorp</b>(PPBI),<b>Bed Bath &amp; Beyond</b>(BBBY),<b>Ameris Bancorp</b>(ABCB),<b>First Hawaiian</b>(FHB) and<b>Insight Enterprises</b>(NSIT) rounded out the top 10.</p><p><blockquote><b>太平洋卓越银行</b>（PPBI），<b>贝德柏士比昂公司</b>（BBBY），<b>美国银行</b>（ABCB），<b>第一夏威夷人</b>（FHB）和<b>洞察企业</b>(NSIT)跻身前十名。</blockquote></p><p> GameStop has undergone wide swings this year. It rocketed about 2,500% early this year amid theshort-squeeze rallyfueled by the Reddit/WallStreetBets crowd.GME stockthen crashed 92% from a Jan. 28 high to its mid-February low. That was followed by an 805% surge the next three weeks, and a 66% drop over the next two weeks.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站今年经历了大幅波动。今年早些时候，在Reddit/WallStreetBets人群推动的空头挤压反弹中，该股飙升了约2,500%。GME股票随后从1月28日的高点暴跌92%至2月中旬的低点。随后在接下来的三周内飙升805%，在接下来的两周内下跌66%。</blockquote></p><p> Action had been relatively subdued since, until Thursday's 27% dive. Even after that, GameStop stock was up 1,070% year to date through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>此后，股价一直相对低迷，直到周四暴跌27%。即便如此，截至周四收盘，游戏驿站股价今年迄今仍上涨了1,070%。</blockquote></p><p> Could GME be inflating SLYV's performance? Certainly, given its quadruple-digit gain. But a look at SLYG's portfolio is interesting. GameStop stock is also the top holding in the growth stock ETF, though the rest of the top 10 differ vastly.</p><p><blockquote>GME会夸大SLYV的业绩吗？当然，考虑到其四位数的增益。但看看SLYG的投资组合很有趣。游戏驿站股票也是成长型股票ETF中持股最多的股票，尽管前10名中的其他股票差异很大。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Second Meme Stock In Top 10</b></p><p><blockquote><b>前十名中的第二只模因股票</b></blockquote></p><p> PDC Energy, up 130%, saw the next biggest gain in the top 10. The Colorado-based oil and gas explorer has a 97Relative Strength Rating, which mean it's in the top 3% of all stocks. Its relative strength line is at a 52-week high, a bullish sign.</p><p><blockquote>PDC Energy上涨130%，在前十名中涨幅第二大。这家总部位于科罗拉多州的石油和天然气勘探公司的相对强度评级为97，这意味着它在所有股票中排名前3%。其相对强弱线处于52周高点，这是一个看涨信号。</blockquote></p><p> Bed Bath &amp; Beyond, another meme stock, is up 78% this year. Shares surged more than 200% in January, amid a spate of wild double-digit swings. BBBY stock then gave back the bulk of its gains.</p><p><blockquote>另一只模因股票Bed Bath&amp;Beyond今年上涨了78%。在一系列两位数的剧烈波动中，股价在1月份飙升了200%以上。BBBY股票随后回吐了大部分涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> But the home goods retailer appears to be back on the radar of the WallStreetBets discussion group. On June 2, Bed Bath &amp; Beyond soared 62% before diving 28% the next session.</p><p><blockquote>但这家家居用品零售商似乎又重新受到了WallStreetBets讨论组的关注。6月2日，Bed Bath&amp;Beyond股价飙升62%，随后第二个交易日暴跌28%。</blockquote></p><p> The rest of the top 10 stocks have also outperformed the broader market. Macy's is up 68% year to date, while Resideo, Pacific Premier and Ameris have risen more than 40% each. The lowest gainer, bank holding company First Hawaiian, has advanced 20%. The S&amp;P 500 held a 13% gain through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>其余前10只股票的表现也优于大盘。梅西百货今年迄今上涨了68%，而Resideo、Pacific Premier和Ameris的涨幅均超过40%。涨幅最低的银行控股公司First Hawaiian上涨了20%。截至周四收盘，标普500上涨了13%。</blockquote></p><p> SLYV remains in potential buy range from an 87.29entryof acup with handle, according toMarketSmithchart analysis.&nbsp;SLYV and SLYG charge a 0.15% expense ratio.</p><p><blockquote>根据MarketSmithChart分析，SLYV仍处于带手柄acup的87.29入场点的潜在买入范围内。SLYV和SLYG收取0.15%的费用率。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610449120050","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Meme Stock Soars 1,000% To Lead These Two Top Small Cap Stock Plays<blockquote>Meme股票飙升1,000%，领跑这两只顶级小盘股</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMeme Stock Soars 1,000% To Lead These Two Top Small Cap Stock Plays<blockquote>Meme股票飙升1,000%，领跑这两只顶级小盘股</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">investors</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-13 06:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>GameStop may be the top holding in SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Value, but that's not the only reason the ETF is beating its growth-stock counterpart.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站可能是SPDR S&amp;P 600小型股价值中最大的持股，但这并不是该ETF击败成长型股票的唯一原因。</blockquote></p><p> The $4.2 billion value fund tracks the S&amp;P SmallCap 600 Value Index (SLYV), composed of stocks with the strongest value traits based on book value to price ratio, earnings to price ratio, and sales to price ratio. SLYV rallied 32% this year through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>这只价值42亿美元的价值基金追踪S&amp;P SmallCap 600价值指数(SLYV)，该指数由根据账面价值与价格比率、市盈率和销售价格比率具有最强价值特征的股票组成。截至周四收盘，SLYV今年上涨了32%。</blockquote></p><p> That more than doubles the return of its growth stock counterpart, SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth (SLYG), which is up 15%. The index SLYG tracks includes stocks with the strongest growth traits based on sales growth, earnings change to price and momentum.</p><p><blockquote>这是成长型股票SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth(SLYG)回报率的两倍多，后者上涨了15%。SLYG跟踪的指数包括基于销售增长、盈利价格变化和动量的增长特征最强的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Back to SLYV, financials accounted for the biggest sector weight at 24% of assets. Industrials weighed in at about 17%, consumer discretionary 15% and real estate 10%. Information technology was next at 8% and materials, energy and health care, 6% each.&nbsp;Smaller positions in consumer staples, utilities and communication services made up the rest.</p><p><blockquote>回到SLYV，金融业占资产比重最大，占资产的24%。工业股约占17%，非必需消费品股15%，房地产股10%。其次是信息技术，占8%，材料、能源和医疗保健，各占6%。消费品、公用事业和通信服务的较小头寸占其余部分。</blockquote></p><p> SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Value is in IBD's ETF Leaders, but SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth is not.</p><p><blockquote>SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Value位居IBD ETF领先者之列，但SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth则不然。</blockquote></p><p> <b>GameStop Stock Leads</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站股票领先</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>GameStop</b>(GME),<b>Macy's</b>(M),<b>PDC Energy</b>(PDCE),<b>Resideo Technologies</b>(REZI) and<b>BankUnited</b>(BKU) were the top five holdings as of Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站</b>（GME），<b>梅西百货</b>(M)，<b>PDC能源</b>（PDCE），<b>Resideo技术</b>（雷齐）和<b>联合银行</b>(BKU)是截至周三的前五大持股。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Pacific Premier Bancorp</b>(PPBI),<b>Bed Bath &amp; Beyond</b>(BBBY),<b>Ameris Bancorp</b>(ABCB),<b>First Hawaiian</b>(FHB) and<b>Insight Enterprises</b>(NSIT) rounded out the top 10.</p><p><blockquote><b>太平洋卓越银行</b>（PPBI），<b>贝德柏士比昂公司</b>（BBBY），<b>美国银行</b>（ABCB），<b>第一夏威夷人</b>（FHB）和<b>洞察企业</b>(NSIT)跻身前十名。</blockquote></p><p> GameStop has undergone wide swings this year. It rocketed about 2,500% early this year amid theshort-squeeze rallyfueled by the Reddit/WallStreetBets crowd.GME stockthen crashed 92% from a Jan. 28 high to its mid-February low. That was followed by an 805% surge the next three weeks, and a 66% drop over the next two weeks.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站今年经历了大幅波动。今年早些时候，在Reddit/WallStreetBets人群推动的空头挤压反弹中，该股飙升了约2,500%。GME股票随后从1月28日的高点暴跌92%至2月中旬的低点。随后在接下来的三周内飙升805%，在接下来的两周内下跌66%。</blockquote></p><p> Action had been relatively subdued since, until Thursday's 27% dive. Even after that, GameStop stock was up 1,070% year to date through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>此后，股价一直相对低迷，直到周四暴跌27%。即便如此，截至周四收盘，游戏驿站股价今年迄今仍上涨了1,070%。</blockquote></p><p> Could GME be inflating SLYV's performance? Certainly, given its quadruple-digit gain. But a look at SLYG's portfolio is interesting. GameStop stock is also the top holding in the growth stock ETF, though the rest of the top 10 differ vastly.</p><p><blockquote>GME会夸大SLYV的业绩吗？当然，考虑到其四位数的增益。但看看SLYG的投资组合很有趣。游戏驿站股票也是成长型股票ETF中持股最多的股票，尽管前10名中的其他股票差异很大。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Second Meme Stock In Top 10</b></p><p><blockquote><b>前十名中的第二只模因股票</b></blockquote></p><p> PDC Energy, up 130%, saw the next biggest gain in the top 10. The Colorado-based oil and gas explorer has a 97Relative Strength Rating, which mean it's in the top 3% of all stocks. Its relative strength line is at a 52-week high, a bullish sign.</p><p><blockquote>PDC Energy上涨130%，在前十名中涨幅第二大。这家总部位于科罗拉多州的石油和天然气勘探公司的相对强度评级为97，这意味着它在所有股票中排名前3%。其相对强弱线处于52周高点，这是一个看涨信号。</blockquote></p><p> Bed Bath &amp; Beyond, another meme stock, is up 78% this year. Shares surged more than 200% in January, amid a spate of wild double-digit swings. BBBY stock then gave back the bulk of its gains.</p><p><blockquote>另一只模因股票Bed Bath&amp;Beyond今年上涨了78%。在一系列两位数的剧烈波动中，股价在1月份飙升了200%以上。BBBY股票随后回吐了大部分涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> But the home goods retailer appears to be back on the radar of the WallStreetBets discussion group. On June 2, Bed Bath &amp; Beyond soared 62% before diving 28% the next session.</p><p><blockquote>但这家家居用品零售商似乎又重新受到了WallStreetBets讨论组的关注。6月2日，Bed Bath&amp;Beyond股价飙升62%，随后第二个交易日暴跌28%。</blockquote></p><p> The rest of the top 10 stocks have also outperformed the broader market. Macy's is up 68% year to date, while Resideo, Pacific Premier and Ameris have risen more than 40% each. The lowest gainer, bank holding company First Hawaiian, has advanced 20%. The S&amp;P 500 held a 13% gain through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>其余前10只股票的表现也优于大盘。梅西百货今年迄今上涨了68%，而Resideo、Pacific Premier和Ameris的涨幅均超过40%。涨幅最低的银行控股公司First Hawaiian上涨了20%。截至周四收盘，标普500上涨了13%。</blockquote></p><p> SLYV remains in potential buy range from an 87.29entryof acup with handle, according toMarketSmithchart analysis.&nbsp;SLYV and SLYG charge a 0.15% expense ratio.</p><p><blockquote>根据MarketSmithChart分析，SLYV仍处于带手柄acup的87.29入场点的潜在买入范围内。SLYV和SLYG收取0.15%的费用率。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/etf-leaders/gamestop-stock-soars-1000-percent-lead-two-top-small-cap-stock-plays/?src=A00220\">investors</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PDCE":"PDC Energy","BBBY":"Bed Bath & Beyond, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/etf-leaders/gamestop-stock-soars-1000-percent-lead-two-top-small-cap-stock-plays/?src=A00220","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185020128","content_text":"GameStop may be the top holding in SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Value, but that's not the only reason the ETF is beating its growth-stock counterpart.\nThe $4.2 billion value fund tracks the S&P SmallCap 600 Value Index (SLYV), composed of stocks with the strongest value traits based on book value to price ratio, earnings to price ratio, and sales to price ratio. SLYV rallied 32% this year through Thursday's close.\nThat more than doubles the return of its growth stock counterpart, SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Growth (SLYG), which is up 15%. The index SLYG tracks includes stocks with the strongest growth traits based on sales growth, earnings change to price and momentum.\nBack to SLYV, financials accounted for the biggest sector weight at 24% of assets. Industrials weighed in at about 17%, consumer discretionary 15% and real estate 10%. Information technology was next at 8% and materials, energy and health care, 6% each. Smaller positions in consumer staples, utilities and communication services made up the rest.\nSPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Value is in IBD's ETF Leaders, but SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Growth is not.\nGameStop Stock Leads\nGameStop(GME),Macy's(M),PDC Energy(PDCE),Resideo Technologies(REZI) andBankUnited(BKU) were the top five holdings as of Wednesday.\nPacific Premier Bancorp(PPBI),Bed Bath & Beyond(BBBY),Ameris Bancorp(ABCB),First Hawaiian(FHB) andInsight Enterprises(NSIT) rounded out the top 10.\nGameStop has undergone wide swings this year. It rocketed about 2,500% early this year amid theshort-squeeze rallyfueled by the Reddit/WallStreetBets crowd.GME stockthen crashed 92% from a Jan. 28 high to its mid-February low. That was followed by an 805% surge the next three weeks, and a 66% drop over the next two weeks.\nAction had been relatively subdued since, until Thursday's 27% dive. Even after that, GameStop stock was up 1,070% year to date through Thursday's close.\nCould GME be inflating SLYV's performance? Certainly, given its quadruple-digit gain. But a look at SLYG's portfolio is interesting. GameStop stock is also the top holding in the growth stock ETF, though the rest of the top 10 differ vastly.\nSecond Meme Stock In Top 10\nPDC Energy, up 130%, saw the next biggest gain in the top 10. The Colorado-based oil and gas explorer has a 97Relative Strength Rating, which mean it's in the top 3% of all stocks. Its relative strength line is at a 52-week high, a bullish sign.\nBed Bath & Beyond, another meme stock, is up 78% this year. Shares surged more than 200% in January, amid a spate of wild double-digit swings. BBBY stock then gave back the bulk of its gains.\nBut the home goods retailer appears to be back on the radar of the WallStreetBets discussion group. On June 2, Bed Bath & Beyond soared 62% before diving 28% the next session.\nThe rest of the top 10 stocks have also outperformed the broader market. Macy's is up 68% year to date, while Resideo, Pacific Premier and Ameris have risen more than 40% each. The lowest gainer, bank holding company First Hawaiian, has advanced 20%. The S&P 500 held a 13% gain through Thursday's close.\nSLYV remains in potential buy range from an 87.29entryof acup with handle, according toMarketSmithchart analysis. SLYV and SLYG charge a 0.15% expense ratio.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BBBY":0.9,"PDCE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1785,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188265975,"gmtCreate":1623449682497,"gmtModify":1631889813884,"author":{"id":"3582026584233746","authorId":"3582026584233746","name":"cookiemonstr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfdda60d9914bdbf35bd08fe9ee92d34","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582026584233746","idStr":"3582026584233746"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like n comment","listText":"Like n comment","text":"Like n comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188265975","repostId":"2142572209","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1939,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181107450,"gmtCreate":1623376896470,"gmtModify":1631889813895,"author":{"id":"3582026584233746","authorId":"3582026584233746","name":"cookiemonstr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfdda60d9914bdbf35bd08fe9ee92d34","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582026584233746","idStr":"3582026584233746"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like n comment","listText":"Like n comment","text":"Like n comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181107450","repostId":"1184070773","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2143,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":183868305,"gmtCreate":1623322427507,"gmtModify":1631889813910,"author":{"id":"3582026584233746","authorId":"3582026584233746","name":"cookiemonstr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfdda60d9914bdbf35bd08fe9ee92d34","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582026584233746","idStr":"3582026584233746"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like n comment thanks","listText":"Like n comment thanks","text":"Like n comment thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/183868305","repostId":"2142240099","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1707,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":117507249,"gmtCreate":1623148242081,"gmtModify":1634036452268,"author":{"id":"3582026584233746","authorId":"3582026584233746","name":"cookiemonstr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfdda60d9914bdbf35bd08fe9ee92d34","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582026584233746","idStr":"3582026584233746"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment !","listText":"Like and comment !","text":"Like and comment !","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/117507249","repostId":"1136550999","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":750,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":116505771,"gmtCreate":1622809309593,"gmtModify":1634097817197,"author":{"id":"3582026584233746","authorId":"3582026584233746","name":"cookiemonstr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfdda60d9914bdbf35bd08fe9ee92d34","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582026584233746","idStr":"3582026584233746"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like n comment&nbsp;","listText":"Like n comment&nbsp;","text":"Like n comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/116505771","repostId":"2140033314","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2140033314","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1622807843,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2140033314?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-04 19:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why markets have been stuck, and what might get them moving again<blockquote>为什么市场陷入困境，以及什么可能让它们再次上涨</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2140033314","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Like a pinball stuck in a machine, markets have been wedged in. The S&P 500 hasn't seen a move great","content":"<p>Like a pinball stuck in a machine, markets have been wedged in. The S&amp;P 500 hasn't seen a move greater than 0.4% in either direction for the last seven consecutive sessions. If the stock market were to close for the entire rest of the year, a 12% rise in the S&amp;P 500 certainly wouldn't be a bad result, but it's worth examining why there's so little movement right now.</p><p><blockquote>就像卡在机器里的弹球一样，市场被卡住了。过去连续七个交易日，标普500的任何一个方向的涨幅都没有超过0.4%。如果股市在今年剩下的时间里都休市，标普500上涨12%当然不会是一个糟糕的结果，但值得研究一下为什么现在波动如此之小。</blockquote></p><p> It might be worth looking at the benchmark asset for all securities, the 10-year Treasury . After surging from below 1% to as high as 1.78%, the yield on the 10-year Treasury has just kind of drifted. That's despite sensational economic data, including the 70 reading registered on the IHS <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a> services purchasing managers index released Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>也许值得关注所有证券的基准资产，即10年期国债。在从低于1%飙升至高达1.78%之后，10年期国债收益率只是有所波动。尽管有耸人听闻的经济数据，包括IHS登记的70<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a>周四公布的服务业采购经理人指数。</blockquote></p><p> The Institute of International Finance, the trade body for banks, said what's going on is that markets are believing the Federal Reserve. In particular, they think the Fed average inflation targeting program is anchoring longer-term yields.</p><p><blockquote>银行业贸易机构国际金融研究所表示，市场正在相信美联储。特别是，他们认为美联储的平均通胀目标计划正在锚定长期收益率。</blockquote></p><p> Compared with the 2013 taper tantrum, IIF's economists led by Robin Brooks say it's notable how few Fed rate hikes are priced in.</p><p><blockquote>与2013年的缩减恐慌相比，以罗宾·布鲁克斯(Robin Brooks)为首的IIF经济学家表示，值得注意的是，美联储加息的定价很少。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a5dd30fb56f2308cff6d736af7a45d4\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"575\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The surprisingly weak April payrolls report, they note, was an 8-standard deviation surprise, yet it did little to move bonds in either direction. \"To break the stalemate on the 10-year, payrolls will need to show real progress on labor market recovery, which is still outstanding,\" they said.</p><p><blockquote>他们指出，令人惊讶的疲软的4月份就业报告是一个8个标准差的意外，但它对债券的任何方向都没有什么作用。他们表示：“为了打破10年来的僵局，就业数据需要显示劳动力市场复苏方面的真正进展，而劳动力市场复苏仍然悬而未决。”</blockquote></p><p> The IIF rejects the idea that slowing Chinese credit growth is the real reason markets have hit pause. \"That impulse doesn't even correlate with China's GDP, let alone global activity,\" they say.</p><p><blockquote>IIF驳斥了中国信贷增长放缓是市场陷入停顿的真正原因的观点。“这种冲动甚至与中国的GDP无关，更不用说全球经济活动了，”他们说。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why markets have been stuck, and what might get them moving again<blockquote>为什么市场陷入困境，以及什么可能让它们再次上涨</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy markets have been stuck, and what might get them moving again<blockquote>为什么市场陷入困境，以及什么可能让它们再次上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-04 19:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Like a pinball stuck in a machine, markets have been wedged in. The S&amp;P 500 hasn't seen a move greater than 0.4% in either direction for the last seven consecutive sessions. If the stock market were to close for the entire rest of the year, a 12% rise in the S&amp;P 500 certainly wouldn't be a bad result, but it's worth examining why there's so little movement right now.</p><p><blockquote>就像卡在机器里的弹球一样，市场被卡住了。过去连续七个交易日，标普500的任何一个方向的涨幅都没有超过0.4%。如果股市在今年剩下的时间里都休市，标普500上涨12%当然不会是一个糟糕的结果，但值得研究一下为什么现在波动如此之小。</blockquote></p><p> It might be worth looking at the benchmark asset for all securities, the 10-year Treasury . After surging from below 1% to as high as 1.78%, the yield on the 10-year Treasury has just kind of drifted. That's despite sensational economic data, including the 70 reading registered on the IHS <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a> services purchasing managers index released Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>也许值得关注所有证券的基准资产，即10年期国债。在从低于1%飙升至高达1.78%之后，10年期国债收益率只是有所波动。尽管有耸人听闻的经济数据，包括IHS登记的70<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a>周四公布的服务业采购经理人指数。</blockquote></p><p> The Institute of International Finance, the trade body for banks, said what's going on is that markets are believing the Federal Reserve. In particular, they think the Fed average inflation targeting program is anchoring longer-term yields.</p><p><blockquote>银行业贸易机构国际金融研究所表示，市场正在相信美联储。特别是，他们认为美联储的平均通胀目标计划正在锚定长期收益率。</blockquote></p><p> Compared with the 2013 taper tantrum, IIF's economists led by Robin Brooks say it's notable how few Fed rate hikes are priced in.</p><p><blockquote>与2013年的缩减恐慌相比，以罗宾·布鲁克斯(Robin Brooks)为首的IIF经济学家表示，值得注意的是，美联储加息的定价很少。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a5dd30fb56f2308cff6d736af7a45d4\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"575\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The surprisingly weak April payrolls report, they note, was an 8-standard deviation surprise, yet it did little to move bonds in either direction. \"To break the stalemate on the 10-year, payrolls will need to show real progress on labor market recovery, which is still outstanding,\" they said.</p><p><blockquote>他们指出，令人惊讶的疲软的4月份就业报告是一个8个标准差的意外，但它对债券的任何方向都没有什么作用。他们表示：“为了打破10年来的僵局，就业数据需要显示劳动力市场复苏方面的真正进展，而劳动力市场复苏仍然悬而未决。”</blockquote></p><p> The IIF rejects the idea that slowing Chinese credit growth is the real reason markets have hit pause. \"That impulse doesn't even correlate with China's GDP, let alone global activity,\" they say.</p><p><blockquote>IIF驳斥了中国信贷增长放缓是市场陷入停顿的真正原因的观点。“这种冲动甚至与中国的GDP无关，更不用说全球经济活动了，”他们说。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-markets-have-been-stuck-and-what-might-get-them-moving-again-11622802791?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-markets-have-been-stuck-and-what-might-get-them-moving-again-11622802791?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2140033314","content_text":"Like a pinball stuck in a machine, markets have been wedged in. The S&P 500 hasn't seen a move greater than 0.4% in either direction for the last seven consecutive sessions. If the stock market were to close for the entire rest of the year, a 12% rise in the S&P 500 certainly wouldn't be a bad result, but it's worth examining why there's so little movement right now.\nIt might be worth looking at the benchmark asset for all securities, the 10-year Treasury . After surging from below 1% to as high as 1.78%, the yield on the 10-year Treasury has just kind of drifted. That's despite sensational economic data, including the 70 reading registered on the IHS Markit services purchasing managers index released Thursday.\nThe Institute of International Finance, the trade body for banks, said what's going on is that markets are believing the Federal Reserve. In particular, they think the Fed average inflation targeting program is anchoring longer-term yields.\nCompared with the 2013 taper tantrum, IIF's economists led by Robin Brooks say it's notable how few Fed rate hikes are priced in.\n\nThe surprisingly weak April payrolls report, they note, was an 8-standard deviation surprise, yet it did little to move bonds in either direction. \"To break the stalemate on the 10-year, payrolls will need to show real progress on labor market recovery, which is still outstanding,\" they said.\nThe IIF rejects the idea that slowing Chinese credit growth is the real reason markets have hit pause. \"That impulse doesn't even correlate with China's GDP, let alone global activity,\" they say.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":356,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":116502118,"gmtCreate":1622809233234,"gmtModify":1634097818750,"author":{"id":"3582026584233746","authorId":"3582026584233746","name":"cookiemonstr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfdda60d9914bdbf35bd08fe9ee92d34","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582026584233746","idStr":"3582026584233746"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like n&nbsp;comment&nbsp;","listText":"Like n&nbsp;comment&nbsp;","text":"Like n comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/116502118","repostId":"1122373606","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122373606","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622793373,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122373606?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-04 15:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider<blockquote>10年后苹果股票会在哪里？要考虑什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122373606","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nApple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite different.</li>  <li>Apple has seen its growth slow down over the last decade, and it will likely not be a growth monster in the coming years, either.</li>  <li>Shares have ample long-term upside, but investors should consider the current valuation before jumping to decisions.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f2ea192ed76d9772c2c6a820098faf5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by Paopano/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果在过去十年中是一项伟大的投资，但下一个十年可能会大不相同。</li><li>苹果的增长在过去十年中有所放缓，未来几年也可能不会成为增长怪物。</li><li>股价具有充足的长期上涨空间，但投资者在做出决定之前应考虑当前的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Paopano/iStock社论，来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple (AAPL) has been one of the best investments one could have made over the last decade. Over the next decade, its growth may not be the same, however. Yet, thanks to massive shareholder return programs and a move towards services, Apple's stock will likely still be significantly higher a decade from now - even though the current valuation is rather high.</p><p><blockquote>苹果（AAPL）是过去十年中最好的投资之一。然而，在接下来的十年里，它的增长可能会有所不同。然而，由于大规模的股东回报计划和向服务业的转变，苹果的股价在十年后仍可能大幅上涨——尽管目前的估值相当高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Over the last decade, Apple Inc. has been a great investment:</p><p><blockquote>在过去十年中，苹果公司一直是一项伟大的投资：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d29aa34bdbc5bab7d0730a4095954e6\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares have returned 900% in those ten years, before dividends, for a compounded annual return of approximately 26%, easily trouncing the returns of the broad market during that time frame. Importantly, shares have risen a lot more than the company's market capitalization, which grew by only 550% over the last decade. The difference can be explained by the company's large share repurchase programs, which have lowered the share count drastically over the last decade. The last decade, of course, was a highly successful period for Apple on a business basis, as the company benefited from the rise of smartphones while also having success with new products such as its Watch and tablets, which Apple more or less introduced as a new product category. Right now, shares trade for $125, up 57% over the last twelve months, but down 6% in 2021 to date. Following strong gains during 2020, shares seem to be in a consolidation pattern for now, which is not too much of a surprise, as Apple's valuation had expanded a lot in the recent past, and it seems that the company's business growth has to catch up to the recent share price increases now. The current consensus price target is $156, which implies an upside potential of 25%. Since there are no signs of shares leaving their current trading range right now, I personally do not think that Apple will breach $150 in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>在这十年中，扣除股息前，股票回报率为900%，复合年回报率约为26%，轻松击败了同期大盘的回报率。重要的是，该公司股价的涨幅远远超过了该公司的市值，而该公司的市值在过去十年中仅增长了550%。这种差异可以用该公司的大规模股票回购计划来解释，该计划在过去十年中大幅减少了股票数量。当然，过去十年对苹果来说是商业上非常成功的时期，因为该公司受益于智能手机的兴起，同时也在手表和平板电脑等新产品上取得了成功，苹果或多或少地将其作为一个新产品类别推出。目前，股价为125美元，过去12个月上涨57%，但2021年迄今下跌6%。继2020年强劲上涨之后，股价目前似乎处于盘整格局，这并不令人意外，因为苹果的估值最近已经扩大了很多，而且该公司的业务增长似乎必须赶上最近的股价上涨。目前的一致目标价为156美元，这意味着25%的上涨潜力。由于目前没有迹象表明股价会离开当前的交易区间，我个人认为苹果短期内不会突破150美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years</b></p><p><blockquote><b>10年后苹果股票会在哪里</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple's stock price in 2031 is, of course, nothing that can be forecasted with any precision. As history has shown, again and again, it is not even possible to forecast share prices precisely over a much shorter period of time. It is, however, possible to craft scenarios to see where share prices could be in the future under certain conditions, to get a feel for what might be a reasonable expectation for the future.</p><p><blockquote>当然，苹果2031年的股价是无法准确预测的。正如历史一次又一次地表明的那样，甚至不可能在更短的时间内准确预测股价。然而，可以设计情景来了解在某些条件下未来股价的走势，从而了解对未来的合理预期。</blockquote></p><p> To craft one such scenario, we have to consider Apple's business growth, Apple's shareholder return program, and the valuation multiple that shares might trade at in the future.</p><p><blockquote>为了构建这样的场景，我们必须考虑苹果的业务增长、苹果的股东回报计划以及股票未来可能交易的估值倍数。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's business growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的业务增长</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple Inc. has seen years of stronger growth and years of weaker growth in the past. This mostly can be explained by factors such as new product introductions, e.g. Watch or iPad, and by the strength of the respective current iPhone models, which see varying demand depending on the year. Other factors, such as economic growth or trade issues, play a role as well.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司过去曾经历过多年的强劲增长和多年的疲软增长。这主要可以用新产品推出等因素来解释，例如。手表或iPad，以及各自当前iPhone型号的强度，这些型号的需求因年份而异。其他因素，如经济增长或贸易问题，也发挥了作用。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5b8bd8ef6cdaa13850c1380e870554c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Overall, revenues have grown by 154% over the last decade, but as we see in the above chart, revenue growth has been relatively uneven. During the early 2010s, Apple generated massive growth on the back of the iPhones \"road to victory\", whereas revenue growth declined to a much slower pace in the following years. There were even some years during which revenues declined on a year-over-year basis, such as 2016. The average annual revenue growth pace was 10% over the last decade, but when we factor in that this was lifted up by the very strong growth in 2011 and 2012, it may not be too reasonable to assume that Apple will grow by 10% a year in the future, too. Investors should also consider that maintaining a high growth rate becomes ever more difficult the larger a company gets. This does, however, not mean that Apple's revenue growth will slow down to zero.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，过去十年收入增长了154%，但正如我们在上图中看到的，收入增长相对不均衡。2010年代初，苹果凭借iPhone的“胜利之路”实现了巨大增长，而在接下来的几年里，收入增长速度放缓。甚至有一些年份的收入同比下降，例如2016年。过去十年的平均年收入增长率为10%，但当我们考虑到2011年和2012年的强劲增长推动了这一增长率时，假设苹果将增长10%可能不太合理。未来一年也是如此。投资者还应该考虑到，公司规模越大，保持高增长率就变得越困难。然而，这并不意味着苹果的收入增长将放缓至零。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> On the back of price increases for its products and the potential for market share gains in&nbsp;high-growth countries such as China, where more and more people will be able to buy Apple's higher-priced products, it seems reasonable to assume that Apple will generate at least some growth from its core businesses. Add in growth in the services segment - people use their phones more and more, which should lead to higher app spending - and consider the potential for new product launches (although I assume none will be as massive as the iPhone), and Apple should be able to grow its business at a solid pace. I personally assume that a 5%-7% revenue growth rate could be a realistic estimate for the coming years, although some readers will of course have different opinions.</p><p><blockquote>在其产品价格上涨以及中国等高增长国家市场份额增长的潜力（越来越多的人将能够购买苹果价格较高的产品）的背景下，似乎有理由假设苹果将至少从其核心业务中产生一些增长。再加上服务领域的增长——人们越来越多地使用手机，这应该会导致更高的应用支出——并考虑新产品发布的潜力（尽管我认为没有一款产品会像iPhone那样庞大），苹果应该能够以稳健的速度发展其业务。我个人认为5%-7%的收入增长率可能是未来几年的现实估计，尽管一些读者当然会有不同的意见。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's shareholder returns</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的股东回报</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple has lowered its share count massively in the past, as shown above, and it is, I believe, reasonable to assume that the same will happen going forward. Over the last decade, Apple bought back 36% of its shares. If the same were to happen over the next decade, each remaining share's portion of the company's value would rise by 56%, or 4.6% annualized. Due to the fact that Apple's current valuation is significantly higher than its historic valuation, buybacks could be less impactful in the future, though. Apple has, for example, only reduced its share count by 2.6% over the last year.</p><p><blockquote>如上所示，苹果过去曾大幅减少其股票数量，我相信，有理由假设未来也会发生同样的情况。过去十年，苹果回购了36%的股份。如果未来十年发生同样的情况，每股剩余股票在公司价值中的份额将上涨56%，即年化4.6%。不过，由于苹果目前的估值明显高于其历史估值，回购在未来的影响可能会较小。例如，苹果去年的股票数量仅减少了2.6%。</blockquote></p><p> This is why I believe that the share count will not decline by another 36% over the coming decade. When we adjust that downward to 25%, this would result in a ~3% annual tailwind for Apple's growth when we look at per-share metrics, which are the deciding factor for Apple's share price growth. Combined with my 5%-7% business growth estimate, I thus assume that Apple will grow by 8%-10% on a per-share basis in the long term.</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么我相信未来十年股票数量不会再下降36%。当我们将其向下调整至25%时，当我们考虑每股指标时，这将为苹果的增长带来约3%的年度推动力，而每股指标是苹果股价增长的决定性因素。结合我5%-7%的业务增长预测，我因此假设苹果的每股长期增长将达到8%-10%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's future valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的未来估值</b></blockquote></p><p> AAPL has been valued in a very wide range in the past, seeing its shares trade for very low multiples at some points, whereas investors were willing to pay significantly more at other times:</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司过去的估值范围很广，其股票在某些时候的市盈率非常低，而投资者在其他时候愿意支付更高的价格：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be5cb8bbc04ff0e0a13ee64f6f2bd90a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"470\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares could, five years ago, be bought for a very low 10x net earnings, which naturally was a great time to enter or expand positions. In late 2020, however, shares were trading for as much as 40x the company's net earnings, which seems like a quite high valuation. Right now, AAPL trades at 28x trailing earnings, and at around 24x forward profits. In the above chart, we also see the median earnings multiples over the last 3, 5, 7, and 10 years. It is pretty clear that Apple's valuation has expanded over the years, which is why the median values are higher for the shorter \"lookback\" periods. I do not believe that AAPL will trade at the 15.5x net earnings that it has traded at, on average, over the last decade, as this seems like a rather low valuation for a quality company like Apple with a strong brand, massive scale, great margins, and a fortress balance sheet. On the other hand, I also don't believe that Apple will trade at a 24-28x earnings multiple forever - for a company that generates solid but unspectacular business growth in the mid-single-digits, that seems quite expensive. This is especially true when we consider that interest rates will likely be higher a decade from now, which should pressure valuations for all equities, all else equal. I thus believe that a valuation of around 20x net earnings could be a reasonable estimate for 2031, which would be more or less in line with the 3-year median earnings multiple.</p><p><blockquote>五年前，可以以非常低的10倍净利润购买股票，这自然是进入或扩大头寸的好时机。然而，2020年底，该公司的股价高达该公司净利润的40倍，这似乎是一个相当高的估值。目前，AAPL的往绩市盈率为28倍，远期利润约为24倍。在上图中，我们还看到了过去3年、5年、7年和10年的市盈率中位数。很明显，苹果的估值多年来一直在扩大，这就是为什么在较短的“回顾”期内中值较高。我不认为AAPL的市盈率会达到过去十年平均市盈率的15.5倍，因为对于像苹果这样拥有强大品牌、庞大规模的优质公司来说，这似乎是一个相当低的估值。、巨大的利润和堡垒般的资产负债表。另一方面，我也不相信苹果的市盈率会永远保持在24-28倍——对于一家业务增长稳健但不引人注目的中个位数的公司来说，这似乎相当昂贵。当我们考虑到十年后利率可能会更高时，尤其如此，在其他条件相同的情况下，这应该会给所有股票的估值带来压力。因此，我认为2031年净利润20倍左右的估值可能是合理的估计，这或多或少与3年市盈率中位数一致。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is AAPL A Buy Or Sell Now</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AAPL现在是买入还是卖出</b></blockquote></p><p> Starting our calculation with an EPS estimate of $5.15 for 2021 and assuming that this will grow by 7%-10% a year through 2031, we reach an EPS range of $10.10 to $13.40. Putting a 20x earnings multiple on that leads to a target price of around $200-$270/share. At the midpoint of around $235, shares would thus see gains of around 90% from the current level, or around 6.5% annualized. That surely is not a bad return, and when we add in the dividend, we would get to an annualized return of roughly 7%. This is, on the other hand, also not an outrageously great return, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>从2021年每股收益估计为5.15美元开始计算，并假设到2031年每年增长7%-10%，我们的每股收益范围为10.10美元至13.40美元。将市盈率定为20倍，目标价约为每股200-270美元。因此，在235美元左右的中点，股价将较当前水平上涨约90%，年化涨幅约为6.5%。这肯定是一个不错的回报，当我们加上股息时，我们将获得大约7%的年化回报率。另一方面，我相信这也不是一个惊人的回报。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> AAPL has, I believe, significant upside potential over the next decade, but that should not be a large surprise - many companies will see significant growth over a time span this long. I personally am not too excited about a 7% expected long-term return. When we consider that shares do have considerable downside risk in the next 1-3 years if Apple's valuation declines, e.g. due to rising interest rates, it may be a better choice to stay on the sidelines for now. Long-term investors will likely not do badly when they buy shares at current levels, but they will likely also not do great. For now, I'd rate Apple a hold, and a potential buy if its valuation comes closer to the longer-term average. Those that are more optimistic about new product launches may disagree and favor buying here, but it could turn out that waiting for a better opportunity is the best choice here.</p><p><blockquote>我相信，苹果公司在未来十年具有巨大的上涨潜力，但这并不令人意外——许多公司将在这么长的时间内实现显着增长。我个人对7%的预期长期回报率不太兴奋。当我们考虑到，如果苹果的估值下降，例如由于利率上升，股价在未来1-3年内确实存在相当大的下行风险，目前保持观望可能是更好的选择。长期投资者在当前水平购买股票时可能不会表现不佳，但也可能不会表现出色。目前，我对苹果的评级为持有，如果其估值接近长期平均水平，则可能买入。那些对新产品发布更乐观的人可能不同意并倾向于在这里购买，但事实证明，等待更好的机会是这里的最佳选择。</blockquote></p><p> Summing it up, I'd say shares do have significant upside potential over the next decade, but the upside potential is not large enough to make me buy shares at current, elevated, valuations.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，我想说，该股在未来十年确实有巨大的上涨潜力，但上涨潜力还不足以让我以当前较高的估值购买股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider<blockquote>10年后苹果股票会在哪里？要考虑什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider<blockquote>10年后苹果股票会在哪里？要考虑什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-04 15:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite different.</li>  <li>Apple has seen its growth slow down over the last decade, and it will likely not be a growth monster in the coming years, either.</li>  <li>Shares have ample long-term upside, but investors should consider the current valuation before jumping to decisions.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f2ea192ed76d9772c2c6a820098faf5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by Paopano/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果在过去十年中是一项伟大的投资，但下一个十年可能会大不相同。</li><li>苹果的增长在过去十年中有所放缓，未来几年也可能不会成为增长怪物。</li><li>股价具有充足的长期上涨空间，但投资者在做出决定之前应考虑当前的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Paopano/iStock社论，来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple (AAPL) has been one of the best investments one could have made over the last decade. Over the next decade, its growth may not be the same, however. Yet, thanks to massive shareholder return programs and a move towards services, Apple's stock will likely still be significantly higher a decade from now - even though the current valuation is rather high.</p><p><blockquote>苹果（AAPL）是过去十年中最好的投资之一。然而，在接下来的十年里，它的增长可能会有所不同。然而，由于大规模的股东回报计划和向服务业的转变，苹果的股价在十年后仍可能大幅上涨——尽管目前的估值相当高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Over the last decade, Apple Inc. has been a great investment:</p><p><blockquote>在过去十年中，苹果公司一直是一项伟大的投资：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d29aa34bdbc5bab7d0730a4095954e6\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares have returned 900% in those ten years, before dividends, for a compounded annual return of approximately 26%, easily trouncing the returns of the broad market during that time frame. Importantly, shares have risen a lot more than the company's market capitalization, which grew by only 550% over the last decade. The difference can be explained by the company's large share repurchase programs, which have lowered the share count drastically over the last decade. The last decade, of course, was a highly successful period for Apple on a business basis, as the company benefited from the rise of smartphones while also having success with new products such as its Watch and tablets, which Apple more or less introduced as a new product category. Right now, shares trade for $125, up 57% over the last twelve months, but down 6% in 2021 to date. Following strong gains during 2020, shares seem to be in a consolidation pattern for now, which is not too much of a surprise, as Apple's valuation had expanded a lot in the recent past, and it seems that the company's business growth has to catch up to the recent share price increases now. The current consensus price target is $156, which implies an upside potential of 25%. Since there are no signs of shares leaving their current trading range right now, I personally do not think that Apple will breach $150 in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>在这十年中，扣除股息前，股票回报率为900%，复合年回报率约为26%，轻松击败了同期大盘的回报率。重要的是，该公司股价的涨幅远远超过了该公司的市值，而该公司的市值在过去十年中仅增长了550%。这种差异可以用该公司的大规模股票回购计划来解释，该计划在过去十年中大幅减少了股票数量。当然，过去十年对苹果来说是商业上非常成功的时期，因为该公司受益于智能手机的兴起，同时也在手表和平板电脑等新产品上取得了成功，苹果或多或少地将其作为一个新产品类别推出。目前，股价为125美元，过去12个月上涨57%，但2021年迄今下跌6%。继2020年强劲上涨之后，股价目前似乎处于盘整格局，这并不令人意外，因为苹果的估值最近已经扩大了很多，而且该公司的业务增长似乎必须赶上最近的股价上涨。目前的一致目标价为156美元，这意味着25%的上涨潜力。由于目前没有迹象表明股价会离开当前的交易区间，我个人认为苹果短期内不会突破150美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years</b></p><p><blockquote><b>10年后苹果股票会在哪里</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple's stock price in 2031 is, of course, nothing that can be forecasted with any precision. As history has shown, again and again, it is not even possible to forecast share prices precisely over a much shorter period of time. It is, however, possible to craft scenarios to see where share prices could be in the future under certain conditions, to get a feel for what might be a reasonable expectation for the future.</p><p><blockquote>当然，苹果2031年的股价是无法准确预测的。正如历史一次又一次地表明的那样，甚至不可能在更短的时间内准确预测股价。然而，可以设计情景来了解在某些条件下未来股价的走势，从而了解对未来的合理预期。</blockquote></p><p> To craft one such scenario, we have to consider Apple's business growth, Apple's shareholder return program, and the valuation multiple that shares might trade at in the future.</p><p><blockquote>为了构建这样的场景，我们必须考虑苹果的业务增长、苹果的股东回报计划以及股票未来可能交易的估值倍数。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's business growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的业务增长</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple Inc. has seen years of stronger growth and years of weaker growth in the past. This mostly can be explained by factors such as new product introductions, e.g. Watch or iPad, and by the strength of the respective current iPhone models, which see varying demand depending on the year. Other factors, such as economic growth or trade issues, play a role as well.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司过去曾经历过多年的强劲增长和多年的疲软增长。这主要可以用新产品推出等因素来解释，例如。手表或iPad，以及各自当前iPhone型号的强度，这些型号的需求因年份而异。其他因素，如经济增长或贸易问题，也发挥了作用。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5b8bd8ef6cdaa13850c1380e870554c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Overall, revenues have grown by 154% over the last decade, but as we see in the above chart, revenue growth has been relatively uneven. During the early 2010s, Apple generated massive growth on the back of the iPhones \"road to victory\", whereas revenue growth declined to a much slower pace in the following years. There were even some years during which revenues declined on a year-over-year basis, such as 2016. The average annual revenue growth pace was 10% over the last decade, but when we factor in that this was lifted up by the very strong growth in 2011 and 2012, it may not be too reasonable to assume that Apple will grow by 10% a year in the future, too. Investors should also consider that maintaining a high growth rate becomes ever more difficult the larger a company gets. This does, however, not mean that Apple's revenue growth will slow down to zero.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，过去十年收入增长了154%，但正如我们在上图中看到的，收入增长相对不均衡。2010年代初，苹果凭借iPhone的“胜利之路”实现了巨大增长，而在接下来的几年里，收入增长速度放缓。甚至有一些年份的收入同比下降，例如2016年。过去十年的平均年收入增长率为10%，但当我们考虑到2011年和2012年的强劲增长推动了这一增长率时，假设苹果将增长10%可能不太合理。未来一年也是如此。投资者还应该考虑到，公司规模越大，保持高增长率就变得越困难。然而，这并不意味着苹果的收入增长将放缓至零。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> On the back of price increases for its products and the potential for market share gains in&nbsp;high-growth countries such as China, where more and more people will be able to buy Apple's higher-priced products, it seems reasonable to assume that Apple will generate at least some growth from its core businesses. Add in growth in the services segment - people use their phones more and more, which should lead to higher app spending - and consider the potential for new product launches (although I assume none will be as massive as the iPhone), and Apple should be able to grow its business at a solid pace. I personally assume that a 5%-7% revenue growth rate could be a realistic estimate for the coming years, although some readers will of course have different opinions.</p><p><blockquote>在其产品价格上涨以及中国等高增长国家市场份额增长的潜力（越来越多的人将能够购买苹果价格较高的产品）的背景下，似乎有理由假设苹果将至少从其核心业务中产生一些增长。再加上服务领域的增长——人们越来越多地使用手机，这应该会导致更高的应用支出——并考虑新产品发布的潜力（尽管我认为没有一款产品会像iPhone那样庞大），苹果应该能够以稳健的速度发展其业务。我个人认为5%-7%的收入增长率可能是未来几年的现实估计，尽管一些读者当然会有不同的意见。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's shareholder returns</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的股东回报</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple has lowered its share count massively in the past, as shown above, and it is, I believe, reasonable to assume that the same will happen going forward. Over the last decade, Apple bought back 36% of its shares. If the same were to happen over the next decade, each remaining share's portion of the company's value would rise by 56%, or 4.6% annualized. Due to the fact that Apple's current valuation is significantly higher than its historic valuation, buybacks could be less impactful in the future, though. Apple has, for example, only reduced its share count by 2.6% over the last year.</p><p><blockquote>如上所示，苹果过去曾大幅减少其股票数量，我相信，有理由假设未来也会发生同样的情况。过去十年，苹果回购了36%的股份。如果未来十年发生同样的情况，每股剩余股票在公司价值中的份额将上涨56%，即年化4.6%。不过，由于苹果目前的估值明显高于其历史估值，回购在未来的影响可能会较小。例如，苹果去年的股票数量仅减少了2.6%。</blockquote></p><p> This is why I believe that the share count will not decline by another 36% over the coming decade. When we adjust that downward to 25%, this would result in a ~3% annual tailwind for Apple's growth when we look at per-share metrics, which are the deciding factor for Apple's share price growth. Combined with my 5%-7% business growth estimate, I thus assume that Apple will grow by 8%-10% on a per-share basis in the long term.</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么我相信未来十年股票数量不会再下降36%。当我们将其向下调整至25%时，当我们考虑每股指标时，这将为苹果的增长带来约3%的年度推动力，而每股指标是苹果股价增长的决定性因素。结合我5%-7%的业务增长预测，我因此假设苹果的每股长期增长将达到8%-10%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's future valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的未来估值</b></blockquote></p><p> AAPL has been valued in a very wide range in the past, seeing its shares trade for very low multiples at some points, whereas investors were willing to pay significantly more at other times:</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司过去的估值范围很广，其股票在某些时候的市盈率非常低，而投资者在其他时候愿意支付更高的价格：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be5cb8bbc04ff0e0a13ee64f6f2bd90a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"470\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares could, five years ago, be bought for a very low 10x net earnings, which naturally was a great time to enter or expand positions. In late 2020, however, shares were trading for as much as 40x the company's net earnings, which seems like a quite high valuation. Right now, AAPL trades at 28x trailing earnings, and at around 24x forward profits. In the above chart, we also see the median earnings multiples over the last 3, 5, 7, and 10 years. It is pretty clear that Apple's valuation has expanded over the years, which is why the median values are higher for the shorter \"lookback\" periods. I do not believe that AAPL will trade at the 15.5x net earnings that it has traded at, on average, over the last decade, as this seems like a rather low valuation for a quality company like Apple with a strong brand, massive scale, great margins, and a fortress balance sheet. On the other hand, I also don't believe that Apple will trade at a 24-28x earnings multiple forever - for a company that generates solid but unspectacular business growth in the mid-single-digits, that seems quite expensive. This is especially true when we consider that interest rates will likely be higher a decade from now, which should pressure valuations for all equities, all else equal. I thus believe that a valuation of around 20x net earnings could be a reasonable estimate for 2031, which would be more or less in line with the 3-year median earnings multiple.</p><p><blockquote>五年前，可以以非常低的10倍净利润购买股票，这自然是进入或扩大头寸的好时机。然而，2020年底，该公司的股价高达该公司净利润的40倍，这似乎是一个相当高的估值。目前，AAPL的往绩市盈率为28倍，远期利润约为24倍。在上图中，我们还看到了过去3年、5年、7年和10年的市盈率中位数。很明显，苹果的估值多年来一直在扩大，这就是为什么在较短的“回顾”期内中值较高。我不认为AAPL的市盈率会达到过去十年平均市盈率的15.5倍，因为对于像苹果这样拥有强大品牌、庞大规模的优质公司来说，这似乎是一个相当低的估值。、巨大的利润和堡垒般的资产负债表。另一方面，我也不相信苹果的市盈率会永远保持在24-28倍——对于一家业务增长稳健但不引人注目的中个位数的公司来说，这似乎相当昂贵。当我们考虑到十年后利率可能会更高时，尤其如此，在其他条件相同的情况下，这应该会给所有股票的估值带来压力。因此，我认为2031年净利润20倍左右的估值可能是合理的估计，这或多或少与3年市盈率中位数一致。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is AAPL A Buy Or Sell Now</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AAPL现在是买入还是卖出</b></blockquote></p><p> Starting our calculation with an EPS estimate of $5.15 for 2021 and assuming that this will grow by 7%-10% a year through 2031, we reach an EPS range of $10.10 to $13.40. Putting a 20x earnings multiple on that leads to a target price of around $200-$270/share. At the midpoint of around $235, shares would thus see gains of around 90% from the current level, or around 6.5% annualized. That surely is not a bad return, and when we add in the dividend, we would get to an annualized return of roughly 7%. This is, on the other hand, also not an outrageously great return, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>从2021年每股收益估计为5.15美元开始计算，并假设到2031年每年增长7%-10%，我们的每股收益范围为10.10美元至13.40美元。将市盈率定为20倍，目标价约为每股200-270美元。因此，在235美元左右的中点，股价将较当前水平上涨约90%，年化涨幅约为6.5%。这肯定是一个不错的回报，当我们加上股息时，我们将获得大约7%的年化回报率。另一方面，我相信这也不是一个惊人的回报。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> AAPL has, I believe, significant upside potential over the next decade, but that should not be a large surprise - many companies will see significant growth over a time span this long. I personally am not too excited about a 7% expected long-term return. When we consider that shares do have considerable downside risk in the next 1-3 years if Apple's valuation declines, e.g. due to rising interest rates, it may be a better choice to stay on the sidelines for now. Long-term investors will likely not do badly when they buy shares at current levels, but they will likely also not do great. For now, I'd rate Apple a hold, and a potential buy if its valuation comes closer to the longer-term average. Those that are more optimistic about new product launches may disagree and favor buying here, but it could turn out that waiting for a better opportunity is the best choice here.</p><p><blockquote>我相信，苹果公司在未来十年具有巨大的上涨潜力，但这并不令人意外——许多公司将在这么长的时间内实现显着增长。我个人对7%的预期长期回报率不太兴奋。当我们考虑到，如果苹果的估值下降，例如由于利率上升，股价在未来1-3年内确实存在相当大的下行风险，目前保持观望可能是更好的选择。长期投资者在当前水平购买股票时可能不会表现不佳，但也可能不会表现出色。目前，我对苹果的评级为持有，如果其估值接近长期平均水平，则可能买入。那些对新产品发布更乐观的人可能不同意并倾向于在这里购买，但事实证明，等待更好的机会是这里的最佳选择。</blockquote></p><p> Summing it up, I'd say shares do have significant upside potential over the next decade, but the upside potential is not large enough to make me buy shares at current, elevated, valuations.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，我想说，该股在未来十年确实有巨大的上涨潜力，但上涨潜力还不足以让我以当前较高的估值购买股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432703-apple-stock-in-10-years\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432703-apple-stock-in-10-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122373606","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite different.\nApple has seen its growth slow down over the last decade, and it will likely not be a growth monster in the coming years, either.\nShares have ample long-term upside, but investors should consider the current valuation before jumping to decisions.\n\nPhoto by Paopano/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nApple (AAPL) has been one of the best investments one could have made over the last decade. Over the next decade, its growth may not be the same, however. Yet, thanks to massive shareholder return programs and a move towards services, Apple's stock will likely still be significantly higher a decade from now - even though the current valuation is rather high.\nApple Stock Price\nOver the last decade, Apple Inc. has been a great investment:\nData by YCharts\nShares have returned 900% in those ten years, before dividends, for a compounded annual return of approximately 26%, easily trouncing the returns of the broad market during that time frame. Importantly, shares have risen a lot more than the company's market capitalization, which grew by only 550% over the last decade. The difference can be explained by the company's large share repurchase programs, which have lowered the share count drastically over the last decade. The last decade, of course, was a highly successful period for Apple on a business basis, as the company benefited from the rise of smartphones while also having success with new products such as its Watch and tablets, which Apple more or less introduced as a new product category. Right now, shares trade for $125, up 57% over the last twelve months, but down 6% in 2021 to date. Following strong gains during 2020, shares seem to be in a consolidation pattern for now, which is not too much of a surprise, as Apple's valuation had expanded a lot in the recent past, and it seems that the company's business growth has to catch up to the recent share price increases now. The current consensus price target is $156, which implies an upside potential of 25%. Since there are no signs of shares leaving their current trading range right now, I personally do not think that Apple will breach $150 in the near term.\nWhere Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years\nApple's stock price in 2031 is, of course, nothing that can be forecasted with any precision. As history has shown, again and again, it is not even possible to forecast share prices precisely over a much shorter period of time. It is, however, possible to craft scenarios to see where share prices could be in the future under certain conditions, to get a feel for what might be a reasonable expectation for the future.\nTo craft one such scenario, we have to consider Apple's business growth, Apple's shareholder return program, and the valuation multiple that shares might trade at in the future.\nApple's business growth\nApple Inc. has seen years of stronger growth and years of weaker growth in the past. This mostly can be explained by factors such as new product introductions, e.g. Watch or iPad, and by the strength of the respective current iPhone models, which see varying demand depending on the year. Other factors, such as economic growth or trade issues, play a role as well.\nData by YCharts\nOverall, revenues have grown by 154% over the last decade, but as we see in the above chart, revenue growth has been relatively uneven. During the early 2010s, Apple generated massive growth on the back of the iPhones \"road to victory\", whereas revenue growth declined to a much slower pace in the following years. There were even some years during which revenues declined on a year-over-year basis, such as 2016. The average annual revenue growth pace was 10% over the last decade, but when we factor in that this was lifted up by the very strong growth in 2011 and 2012, it may not be too reasonable to assume that Apple will grow by 10% a year in the future, too. Investors should also consider that maintaining a high growth rate becomes ever more difficult the larger a company gets. This does, however, not mean that Apple's revenue growth will slow down to zero.\nOn the back of price increases for its products and the potential for market share gains in high-growth countries such as China, where more and more people will be able to buy Apple's higher-priced products, it seems reasonable to assume that Apple will generate at least some growth from its core businesses. Add in growth in the services segment - people use their phones more and more, which should lead to higher app spending - and consider the potential for new product launches (although I assume none will be as massive as the iPhone), and Apple should be able to grow its business at a solid pace. I personally assume that a 5%-7% revenue growth rate could be a realistic estimate for the coming years, although some readers will of course have different opinions.\nApple's shareholder returns\nApple has lowered its share count massively in the past, as shown above, and it is, I believe, reasonable to assume that the same will happen going forward. Over the last decade, Apple bought back 36% of its shares. If the same were to happen over the next decade, each remaining share's portion of the company's value would rise by 56%, or 4.6% annualized. Due to the fact that Apple's current valuation is significantly higher than its historic valuation, buybacks could be less impactful in the future, though. Apple has, for example, only reduced its share count by 2.6% over the last year.\nThis is why I believe that the share count will not decline by another 36% over the coming decade. When we adjust that downward to 25%, this would result in a ~3% annual tailwind for Apple's growth when we look at per-share metrics, which are the deciding factor for Apple's share price growth. Combined with my 5%-7% business growth estimate, I thus assume that Apple will grow by 8%-10% on a per-share basis in the long term.\nApple's future valuation\nAAPL has been valued in a very wide range in the past, seeing its shares trade for very low multiples at some points, whereas investors were willing to pay significantly more at other times:\nData by YCharts\nShares could, five years ago, be bought for a very low 10x net earnings, which naturally was a great time to enter or expand positions. In late 2020, however, shares were trading for as much as 40x the company's net earnings, which seems like a quite high valuation. Right now, AAPL trades at 28x trailing earnings, and at around 24x forward profits. In the above chart, we also see the median earnings multiples over the last 3, 5, 7, and 10 years. It is pretty clear that Apple's valuation has expanded over the years, which is why the median values are higher for the shorter \"lookback\" periods. I do not believe that AAPL will trade at the 15.5x net earnings that it has traded at, on average, over the last decade, as this seems like a rather low valuation for a quality company like Apple with a strong brand, massive scale, great margins, and a fortress balance sheet. On the other hand, I also don't believe that Apple will trade at a 24-28x earnings multiple forever - for a company that generates solid but unspectacular business growth in the mid-single-digits, that seems quite expensive. This is especially true when we consider that interest rates will likely be higher a decade from now, which should pressure valuations for all equities, all else equal. I thus believe that a valuation of around 20x net earnings could be a reasonable estimate for 2031, which would be more or less in line with the 3-year median earnings multiple.\nIs AAPL A Buy Or Sell Now\nStarting our calculation with an EPS estimate of $5.15 for 2021 and assuming that this will grow by 7%-10% a year through 2031, we reach an EPS range of $10.10 to $13.40. Putting a 20x earnings multiple on that leads to a target price of around $200-$270/share. At the midpoint of around $235, shares would thus see gains of around 90% from the current level, or around 6.5% annualized. That surely is not a bad return, and when we add in the dividend, we would get to an annualized return of roughly 7%. This is, on the other hand, also not an outrageously great return, I believe.\nAAPL has, I believe, significant upside potential over the next decade, but that should not be a large surprise - many companies will see significant growth over a time span this long. I personally am not too excited about a 7% expected long-term return. When we consider that shares do have considerable downside risk in the next 1-3 years if Apple's valuation declines, e.g. due to rising interest rates, it may be a better choice to stay on the sidelines for now. Long-term investors will likely not do badly when they buy shares at current levels, but they will likely also not do great. For now, I'd rate Apple a hold, and a potential buy if its valuation comes closer to the longer-term average. Those that are more optimistic about new product launches may disagree and favor buying here, but it could turn out that waiting for a better opportunity is the best choice here.\nSumming it up, I'd say shares do have significant upside potential over the next decade, but the upside potential is not large enough to make me buy shares at current, elevated, valuations.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":583,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":119337180,"gmtCreate":1622518658840,"gmtModify":1634100875225,"author":{"id":"3582026584233746","authorId":"3582026584233746","name":"cookiemonstr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfdda60d9914bdbf35bd08fe9ee92d34","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582026584233746","idStr":"3582026584233746"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like n comment","listText":"Like n comment","text":"Like n comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/119337180","repostId":"1163643126","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":447,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":110658549,"gmtCreate":1622451537681,"gmtModify":1634101380656,"author":{"id":"3582026584233746","authorId":"3582026584233746","name":"cookiemonstr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfdda60d9914bdbf35bd08fe9ee92d34","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582026584233746","idStr":"3582026584233746"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like n comment thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Like n comment thanks&nbsp;","text":"Like n comment thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/110658549","repostId":"1198461252","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":657,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":110808064,"gmtCreate":1622435338558,"gmtModify":1634101486506,"author":{"id":"3582026584233746","authorId":"3582026584233746","name":"cookiemonstr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfdda60d9914bdbf35bd08fe9ee92d34","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582026584233746","idStr":"3582026584233746"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Let’s go btc","listText":"Let’s go btc","text":"Let’s go btc","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/110808064","repostId":"2139438981","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":574,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":137728943,"gmtCreate":1622399262782,"gmtModify":1634101844509,"author":{"id":"3582026584233746","authorId":"3582026584233746","name":"cookiemonstr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfdda60d9914bdbf35bd08fe9ee92d34","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582026584233746","idStr":"3582026584233746"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like n comment","listText":"Like n comment","text":"Like n 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comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/132667586","repostId":"2138149518","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":416,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":188265975,"gmtCreate":1623449682497,"gmtModify":1631889813884,"author":{"id":"3582026584233746","authorId":"3582026584233746","name":"cookiemonstr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfdda60d9914bdbf35bd08fe9ee92d34","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582026584233746","idStr":"3582026584233746"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like n comment","listText":"Like n comment","text":"Like n comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188265975","repostId":"2142572209","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1939,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":190305325,"gmtCreate":1620583084767,"gmtModify":1634197935440,"author":{"id":"3582026584233746","authorId":"3582026584233746","name":"cookiemonstr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfdda60d9914bdbf35bd08fe9ee92d34","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582026584233746","idStr":"3582026584233746"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Respond to my comment thanks I will do thesame for u","listText":"Respond to my comment thanks I will do thesame for u","text":"Respond to my comment thanks I will do thesame for u","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/190305325","repostId":"1193602237","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1193602237","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620471120,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1193602237?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-08 18:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. hiring takes big step back as businesses scramble for workers, raw materials<blockquote>由于企业争夺工人和原材料，美国招聘大幅倒退</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193602237","media":"reuters","summary":"U.S. employers likely hired nearly a million workers in April as they rushed to meet a surge in dema","content":"<p>U.S. employers likely hired nearly a million workers in April as they rushed to meet a surge in demand, unleashed by the reopening of the economy amid rapidly improving public health and massive financial help from the government.</p><p><blockquote>美国雇主可能在4月份雇佣了近100万名工人，因为他们急于满足需求的激增，而需求是由公共卫生迅速改善和政府的大规模财政援助导致的。</blockquote></p><p>The Labor Department's closely watched employment report on Friday will be the first to show the impact of the White House's $1.9 trillion COVID-19 pandemic rescue package, which was approved in March. It is likely to show the economy entered the second quarter with even greater momentum, firmly putting it on track this year for its best performance in almost four decades.</p><p><blockquote>劳工部周五发布的备受关注的就业报告将首次显示白宫3月份批准的1.9万亿美元COVID-19大流行救助计划的影响。这可能表明经济以更大的势头进入第二季度，使其今年走上近四十年来最佳表现的轨道。</blockquote></p><p>\"We are looking for a pretty good figure, reflecting the ongoing reopening we have seen,\" said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING in New York. \"With cash in people's pockets, economic activity is looking good and that should lead to more and more hiring right across the economy.\"</p><p><blockquote>荷兰国际集团驻纽约首席国际经济学家詹姆斯·奈特利表示：“我们正在寻找一个相当不错的数字，反映出我们所看到的持续重新开放。”“随着人们口袋里有了现金，经济活动看起来不错，这应该会导致整个经济中越来越多的招聘。”</blockquote></p><p>According to a Reuters survey of economists, nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 978,000 jobs last month after rising by 916,000 in March. That would leave employment about 7.5 million jobs below its peak in February 2020.</p><p><blockquote>根据路透社对经济学家的调查，继3月份增加916,000个就业岗位后，上个月非农就业岗位可能增加978,000个。这将使就业岗位比2020年2月的峰值减少约750万个。</blockquote></p><p>Twelve months ago, the economy purged a record 20.679 million jobs as it reeled from mandatory closures of nonessential businesses to slow the first wave of COVID-19 infections.</p><p><blockquote>12个月前，由于强制关闭非必要企业以减缓第一波COVID-19感染，经济损失了创纪录的2067.9万个工作岗位。</blockquote></p><p>April's payrolls estimates range from as low as 656,000 to as high as 2.1 million jobs. New claims for unemployment benefits have dropped below 500,000 for the first-time since the pandemic started and job cuts announced by U.S.-based employers in April were the lowest in nearly 21 years.</p><p><blockquote>4月份的就业人数估计从低至656,000人到高至210万人不等。自疫情开始以来，新申请失业救济人数首次降至50万以下，美国雇主4月份宣布的裁员人数为近21年来最低。</blockquote></p><p>Also arguing for another month of blockbuster job growth, consumers' perceptions of the labor market are the strongest in 13 months. But the pent-up demand, which contributed to the economy's 6.4% annualized growth pace in the first quarter, the second-fastest since the third quarter of 2003, has triggered shortages of labor and raw materials.</p><p><blockquote>消费者对劳动力市场的看法是13个月来最强烈的，这也是就业增长又一个月的原因。但被压抑的需求推动了第一季度经济6.4%的年化增长率，为2003年第三季度以来的第二快，引发了劳动力和原材料的短缺。</blockquote></p><p>From manufacturing to restaurants, employers are scrambling for workers. A range of factors, including parents still at home caring for children, coronavirus-related retirements and generous unemployment checks, are blamed for the labor shortages.</p><p><blockquote>从制造业到餐馆，雇主都在争夺工人。一系列因素被归咎于劳动力短缺，包括仍在家照顾孩子的父母、与冠状病毒相关的退休和慷慨的失业支票。</blockquote></p><p>\"While we do not expect that lack of workers will weigh noticeably on April employment, rehiring could become more difficult in coming months before expanded unemployment benefits expire in September,\" said Veronica Clark, an economist at Citigroup in New York.</p><p><blockquote>花旗集团(Citigroup)驻纽约经济学家维罗妮卡·克拉克(Veronica Clark)表示：“虽然我们预计工人短缺不会明显影响4月份的就业，但在9月份扩大的失业救济金到期之前，未来几个月重新招聘可能会变得更加困难。”</blockquote></p><p>Payroll gains were likely led by the leisure and hospitality industry as more high-contact businesses such as restaurants, bars and amusement parks reopen. Americans over the age of 16 are now eligible to receive the COVID-19 vaccine, leading states like New York, New Jersey and Connecticut to lift most of their coronavirus capacity restrictions on businesses.</p><p><blockquote>随着餐馆、酒吧和游乐园等更多高接触性企业重新开业，休闲和酒店业可能会带动工资增长。16岁以上的美国人现在有资格接种COVID-19疫苗，导致纽约、新泽西和康涅狄格等州取消了对企业的大部分冠状病毒产能限制。</blockquote></p><p>BROAD EMPLOYMENT GAINS</p><p><blockquote>广泛的就业增长</blockquote></p><p>Solid gains were also expected in manufacturing, despite a global semiconductor chip shortage, which has forced motor vehicle manufacturers to cut production. Strong housing demand likely boosted construction payrolls.</p><p><blockquote>尽管全球半导体芯片短缺迫使汽车制造商减产，但预计制造业也将强劲增长。强劲的住房需求可能会提振建筑业就业人数。</blockquote></p><p>Government employment is also expected to have picked up as school districts hired more teachers following the resumption of in-person learning in many states.</p><p><blockquote>在许多州恢复面对面学习后，随着学区雇用更多教师，政府就业预计也会回升。</blockquote></p><p>Robust hiring is unlikely to have an impact on President Joe Biden's plan to spend another $4 trillion on education and childcare, middle- and low-income families, infrastructure and jobs. Neither was it expected to influence monetary policy, with the Federal Reserve having signaled it is prepared to let the economy run hotter than it did in previous cycles.</p><p><blockquote>强劲的招聘不太可能对乔·拜登总统在教育和儿童保育、中低收入家庭、基础设施和就业方面再投入4万亿美元的计划产生影响。预计它也不会影响货币政策，美联储已表示准备让经济比前几个周期更热。</blockquote></p><p>Millions of Americans remain out of work and many have permanently lost jobs because of the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>数百万美国人仍然失业，许多人因为疫情而永久失业。</blockquote></p><p>\"Nobody knows what the economy is going to look like post COVID,\" said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard in New York. \"There is a stubbornly high number of people who have been permanently displaced. The (spending) plans are about giving the economy a higher trajectory of growth so that these people can be hired sooner rather than later.\"</p><p><blockquote>纽约TS Lombard首席美国经济学家史蒂文·布利茨(Steven Blitz)表示：“没有人知道新冠疫情后的经济会是什么样子。”“永久流离失所的人数居高不下。（支出）计划旨在让经济走上更高的增长轨道，以便这些人能够尽早就业。”</blockquote></p><p>The unemployment rate is forecast dropping to 5.8% in April from 6.0% in March. The unemployment rate has been understated by people misclassifying themselves as being \"employed but absent from work.\"</p><p><blockquote>预计4月份失业率将从3月份的6.0%降至5.8%。人们错误地将自己归类为“有工作但没有工作”，从而低估了失业率。</blockquote></p><p>To gauge the recovery, economists will focus on the number of people who have been unemployed for more than six months as well as those out of work because of permanent job losses.</p><p><blockquote>为了衡量复苏情况，经济学家将关注失业超过六个月的人数以及因永久性失业而失业的人数。</blockquote></p><p>The labor force participation rate, or the proportion of working-age Americans who have a job or are looking for one, likely improved last month, though it remained below its pre-pandemic level. More than 4 million people, many of them women, dropped out of the labor force during the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>劳动力参与率，即有工作或正在找工作的工作年龄美国人的比例，上个月可能有所改善，但仍低于大流行前的水平。在疫情期间，超过400万人退出了劳动力市场，其中许多是女性。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>With the lower-wage leisure and hospitality industry expected to dominate employment gains, average hourly earnings were likely unchanged in April after dipping 0.1% in March. That would lead to a 0.4% drop in wages on a year-on-year basis after a 4.2% increase in March.</p><p><blockquote>由于工资较低的休闲和酒店业预计将主导就业增长，平均时薪在3月份下降0.1%后，4月份可能保持不变。这将导致工资在3月份上涨4.2%后同比下降0.4%。</blockquote></p><p>\"We will be watching average hourly earnings very closely for signs that difficulty in hiring qualified workers is beginning to boost compensation,\" said David Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management in New York.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通资产管理公司驻纽约首席全球策略师David Kelly表示：“我们将密切关注平均时薪，寻找招聘合格工人的困难开始提高薪酬的迹象。”</blockquote></p><p>\"If tightening labor markets boost wage growth, then the inflation bounce which the Fed is anticipating to be modest and transitory could turn out to be stronger and longer-lasting, leading to earlier Fed tightening.\"</p><p><blockquote>“如果劳动力市场收紧提振了工资增长，那么美联储预计温和且暂时的通胀反弹可能会变得更强劲、更持久，从而导致美联储提前收紧政策。”</blockquote></p><p>The anticipated drop in wages will have no impact on consumer spending, with Americans sitting on more than $2 trillion in excess savings. The average workweek was forecast steady at 34.9 hours.</p><p><blockquote>预期的工资下降不会对消费者支出产生影响，美国人拥有超过2万亿美元的超额储蓄。平均每周工作时间预计稳定在34.9小时。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. hiring takes big step back as businesses scramble for workers, raw materials<blockquote>由于企业争夺工人和原材料，美国招聘大幅倒退</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. hiring takes big step back as businesses scramble for workers, raw materials<blockquote>由于企业争夺工人和原材料，美国招聘大幅倒退</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-08 18:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S. employers likely hired nearly a million workers in April as they rushed to meet a surge in demand, unleashed by the reopening of the economy amid rapidly improving public health and massive financial help from the government.</p><p><blockquote>美国雇主可能在4月份雇佣了近100万名工人，因为他们急于满足需求的激增，而需求是由公共卫生迅速改善和政府的大规模财政援助导致的。</blockquote></p><p>The Labor Department's closely watched employment report on Friday will be the first to show the impact of the White House's $1.9 trillion COVID-19 pandemic rescue package, which was approved in March. It is likely to show the economy entered the second quarter with even greater momentum, firmly putting it on track this year for its best performance in almost four decades.</p><p><blockquote>劳工部周五发布的备受关注的就业报告将首次显示白宫3月份批准的1.9万亿美元COVID-19大流行救助计划的影响。这可能表明经济以更大的势头进入第二季度，使其今年走上近四十年来最佳表现的轨道。</blockquote></p><p>\"We are looking for a pretty good figure, reflecting the ongoing reopening we have seen,\" said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING in New York. \"With cash in people's pockets, economic activity is looking good and that should lead to more and more hiring right across the economy.\"</p><p><blockquote>荷兰国际集团驻纽约首席国际经济学家詹姆斯·奈特利表示：“我们正在寻找一个相当不错的数字，反映出我们所看到的持续重新开放。”“随着人们口袋里有了现金，经济活动看起来不错，这应该会导致整个经济中越来越多的招聘。”</blockquote></p><p>According to a Reuters survey of economists, nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 978,000 jobs last month after rising by 916,000 in March. That would leave employment about 7.5 million jobs below its peak in February 2020.</p><p><blockquote>根据路透社对经济学家的调查，继3月份增加916,000个就业岗位后，上个月非农就业岗位可能增加978,000个。这将使就业岗位比2020年2月的峰值减少约750万个。</blockquote></p><p>Twelve months ago, the economy purged a record 20.679 million jobs as it reeled from mandatory closures of nonessential businesses to slow the first wave of COVID-19 infections.</p><p><blockquote>12个月前，由于强制关闭非必要企业以减缓第一波COVID-19感染，经济损失了创纪录的2067.9万个工作岗位。</blockquote></p><p>April's payrolls estimates range from as low as 656,000 to as high as 2.1 million jobs. New claims for unemployment benefits have dropped below 500,000 for the first-time since the pandemic started and job cuts announced by U.S.-based employers in April were the lowest in nearly 21 years.</p><p><blockquote>4月份的就业人数估计从低至656,000人到高至210万人不等。自疫情开始以来，新申请失业救济人数首次降至50万以下，美国雇主4月份宣布的裁员人数为近21年来最低。</blockquote></p><p>Also arguing for another month of blockbuster job growth, consumers' perceptions of the labor market are the strongest in 13 months. But the pent-up demand, which contributed to the economy's 6.4% annualized growth pace in the first quarter, the second-fastest since the third quarter of 2003, has triggered shortages of labor and raw materials.</p><p><blockquote>消费者对劳动力市场的看法是13个月来最强烈的，这也是就业增长又一个月的原因。但被压抑的需求推动了第一季度经济6.4%的年化增长率，为2003年第三季度以来的第二快，引发了劳动力和原材料的短缺。</blockquote></p><p>From manufacturing to restaurants, employers are scrambling for workers. A range of factors, including parents still at home caring for children, coronavirus-related retirements and generous unemployment checks, are blamed for the labor shortages.</p><p><blockquote>从制造业到餐馆，雇主都在争夺工人。一系列因素被归咎于劳动力短缺，包括仍在家照顾孩子的父母、与冠状病毒相关的退休和慷慨的失业支票。</blockquote></p><p>\"While we do not expect that lack of workers will weigh noticeably on April employment, rehiring could become more difficult in coming months before expanded unemployment benefits expire in September,\" said Veronica Clark, an economist at Citigroup in New York.</p><p><blockquote>花旗集团(Citigroup)驻纽约经济学家维罗妮卡·克拉克(Veronica Clark)表示：“虽然我们预计工人短缺不会明显影响4月份的就业，但在9月份扩大的失业救济金到期之前，未来几个月重新招聘可能会变得更加困难。”</blockquote></p><p>Payroll gains were likely led by the leisure and hospitality industry as more high-contact businesses such as restaurants, bars and amusement parks reopen. Americans over the age of 16 are now eligible to receive the COVID-19 vaccine, leading states like New York, New Jersey and Connecticut to lift most of their coronavirus capacity restrictions on businesses.</p><p><blockquote>随着餐馆、酒吧和游乐园等更多高接触性企业重新开业，休闲和酒店业可能会带动工资增长。16岁以上的美国人现在有资格接种COVID-19疫苗，导致纽约、新泽西和康涅狄格等州取消了对企业的大部分冠状病毒产能限制。</blockquote></p><p>BROAD EMPLOYMENT GAINS</p><p><blockquote>广泛的就业增长</blockquote></p><p>Solid gains were also expected in manufacturing, despite a global semiconductor chip shortage, which has forced motor vehicle manufacturers to cut production. Strong housing demand likely boosted construction payrolls.</p><p><blockquote>尽管全球半导体芯片短缺迫使汽车制造商减产，但预计制造业也将强劲增长。强劲的住房需求可能会提振建筑业就业人数。</blockquote></p><p>Government employment is also expected to have picked up as school districts hired more teachers following the resumption of in-person learning in many states.</p><p><blockquote>在许多州恢复面对面学习后，随着学区雇用更多教师，政府就业预计也会回升。</blockquote></p><p>Robust hiring is unlikely to have an impact on President Joe Biden's plan to spend another $4 trillion on education and childcare, middle- and low-income families, infrastructure and jobs. Neither was it expected to influence monetary policy, with the Federal Reserve having signaled it is prepared to let the economy run hotter than it did in previous cycles.</p><p><blockquote>强劲的招聘不太可能对乔·拜登总统在教育和儿童保育、中低收入家庭、基础设施和就业方面再投入4万亿美元的计划产生影响。预计它也不会影响货币政策，美联储已表示准备让经济比前几个周期更热。</blockquote></p><p>Millions of Americans remain out of work and many have permanently lost jobs because of the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>数百万美国人仍然失业，许多人因为疫情而永久失业。</blockquote></p><p>\"Nobody knows what the economy is going to look like post COVID,\" said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard in New York. \"There is a stubbornly high number of people who have been permanently displaced. The (spending) plans are about giving the economy a higher trajectory of growth so that these people can be hired sooner rather than later.\"</p><p><blockquote>纽约TS Lombard首席美国经济学家史蒂文·布利茨(Steven Blitz)表示：“没有人知道新冠疫情后的经济会是什么样子。”“永久流离失所的人数居高不下。（支出）计划旨在让经济走上更高的增长轨道，以便这些人能够尽早就业。”</blockquote></p><p>The unemployment rate is forecast dropping to 5.8% in April from 6.0% in March. The unemployment rate has been understated by people misclassifying themselves as being \"employed but absent from work.\"</p><p><blockquote>预计4月份失业率将从3月份的6.0%降至5.8%。人们错误地将自己归类为“有工作但没有工作”，从而低估了失业率。</blockquote></p><p>To gauge the recovery, economists will focus on the number of people who have been unemployed for more than six months as well as those out of work because of permanent job losses.</p><p><blockquote>为了衡量复苏情况，经济学家将关注失业超过六个月的人数以及因永久性失业而失业的人数。</blockquote></p><p>The labor force participation rate, or the proportion of working-age Americans who have a job or are looking for one, likely improved last month, though it remained below its pre-pandemic level. More than 4 million people, many of them women, dropped out of the labor force during the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>劳动力参与率，即有工作或正在找工作的工作年龄美国人的比例，上个月可能有所改善，但仍低于大流行前的水平。在疫情期间，超过400万人退出了劳动力市场，其中许多是女性。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>With the lower-wage leisure and hospitality industry expected to dominate employment gains, average hourly earnings were likely unchanged in April after dipping 0.1% in March. That would lead to a 0.4% drop in wages on a year-on-year basis after a 4.2% increase in March.</p><p><blockquote>由于工资较低的休闲和酒店业预计将主导就业增长，平均时薪在3月份下降0.1%后，4月份可能保持不变。这将导致工资在3月份上涨4.2%后同比下降0.4%。</blockquote></p><p>\"We will be watching average hourly earnings very closely for signs that difficulty in hiring qualified workers is beginning to boost compensation,\" said David Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management in New York.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通资产管理公司驻纽约首席全球策略师David Kelly表示：“我们将密切关注平均时薪，寻找招聘合格工人的困难开始提高薪酬的迹象。”</blockquote></p><p>\"If tightening labor markets boost wage growth, then the inflation bounce which the Fed is anticipating to be modest and transitory could turn out to be stronger and longer-lasting, leading to earlier Fed tightening.\"</p><p><blockquote>“如果劳动力市场收紧提振了工资增长，那么美联储预计温和且暂时的通胀反弹可能会变得更强劲、更持久，从而导致美联储提前收紧政策。”</blockquote></p><p>The anticipated drop in wages will have no impact on consumer spending, with Americans sitting on more than $2 trillion in excess savings. The average workweek was forecast steady at 34.9 hours.</p><p><blockquote>预期的工资下降不会对消费者支出产生影响，美国人拥有超过2万亿美元的超额储蓄。平均每周工作时间预计稳定在34.9小时。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/markets\">reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1193602237","content_text":"U.S. employers likely hired nearly a million workers in April as they rushed to meet a surge in demand, unleashed by the reopening of the economy amid rapidly improving public health and massive financial help from the government.The Labor Department's closely watched employment report on Friday will be the first to show the impact of the White House's $1.9 trillion COVID-19 pandemic rescue package, which was approved in March. It is likely to show the economy entered the second quarter with even greater momentum, firmly putting it on track this year for its best performance in almost four decades.\"We are looking for a pretty good figure, reflecting the ongoing reopening we have seen,\" said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING in New York. \"With cash in people's pockets, economic activity is looking good and that should lead to more and more hiring right across the economy.\"According to a Reuters survey of economists, nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 978,000 jobs last month after rising by 916,000 in March. That would leave employment about 7.5 million jobs below its peak in February 2020.Twelve months ago, the economy purged a record 20.679 million jobs as it reeled from mandatory closures of nonessential businesses to slow the first wave of COVID-19 infections.April's payrolls estimates range from as low as 656,000 to as high as 2.1 million jobs. New claims for unemployment benefits have dropped below 500,000 for the first-time since the pandemic started and job cuts announced by U.S.-based employers in April were the lowest in nearly 21 years.Also arguing for another month of blockbuster job growth, consumers' perceptions of the labor market are the strongest in 13 months. But the pent-up demand, which contributed to the economy's 6.4% annualized growth pace in the first quarter, the second-fastest since the third quarter of 2003, has triggered shortages of labor and raw materials.From manufacturing to restaurants, employers are scrambling for workers. A range of factors, including parents still at home caring for children, coronavirus-related retirements and generous unemployment checks, are blamed for the labor shortages.\"While we do not expect that lack of workers will weigh noticeably on April employment, rehiring could become more difficult in coming months before expanded unemployment benefits expire in September,\" said Veronica Clark, an economist at Citigroup in New York.Payroll gains were likely led by the leisure and hospitality industry as more high-contact businesses such as restaurants, bars and amusement parks reopen. Americans over the age of 16 are now eligible to receive the COVID-19 vaccine, leading states like New York, New Jersey and Connecticut to lift most of their coronavirus capacity restrictions on businesses.BROAD EMPLOYMENT GAINSSolid gains were also expected in manufacturing, despite a global semiconductor chip shortage, which has forced motor vehicle manufacturers to cut production. Strong housing demand likely boosted construction payrolls.Government employment is also expected to have picked up as school districts hired more teachers following the resumption of in-person learning in many states.Robust hiring is unlikely to have an impact on President Joe Biden's plan to spend another $4 trillion on education and childcare, middle- and low-income families, infrastructure and jobs. Neither was it expected to influence monetary policy, with the Federal Reserve having signaled it is prepared to let the economy run hotter than it did in previous cycles.Millions of Americans remain out of work and many have permanently lost jobs because of the pandemic.\"Nobody knows what the economy is going to look like post COVID,\" said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard in New York. \"There is a stubbornly high number of people who have been permanently displaced. The (spending) plans are about giving the economy a higher trajectory of growth so that these people can be hired sooner rather than later.\"The unemployment rate is forecast dropping to 5.8% in April from 6.0% in March. The unemployment rate has been understated by people misclassifying themselves as being \"employed but absent from work.\"To gauge the recovery, economists will focus on the number of people who have been unemployed for more than six months as well as those out of work because of permanent job losses.The labor force participation rate, or the proportion of working-age Americans who have a job or are looking for one, likely improved last month, though it remained below its pre-pandemic level. More than 4 million people, many of them women, dropped out of the labor force during the pandemic.With the lower-wage leisure and hospitality industry expected to dominate employment gains, average hourly earnings were likely unchanged in April after dipping 0.1% in March. That would lead to a 0.4% drop in wages on a year-on-year basis after a 4.2% increase in March.\"We will be watching average hourly earnings very closely for signs that difficulty in hiring qualified workers is beginning to boost compensation,\" said David Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management in New York.\"If tightening labor markets boost wage growth, then the inflation bounce which the Fed is anticipating to be modest and transitory could turn out to be stronger and longer-lasting, leading to earlier Fed tightening.\"The anticipated drop in wages will have no impact on consumer spending, with Americans sitting on more than $2 trillion in excess savings. The average workweek was forecast steady at 34.9 hours.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":601,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":110658549,"gmtCreate":1622451537681,"gmtModify":1634101380656,"author":{"id":"3582026584233746","authorId":"3582026584233746","name":"cookiemonstr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfdda60d9914bdbf35bd08fe9ee92d34","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582026584233746","idStr":"3582026584233746"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like n comment thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Like n comment thanks&nbsp;","text":"Like n comment thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/110658549","repostId":"1198461252","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":657,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":133270848,"gmtCreate":1621760010284,"gmtModify":1634186721610,"author":{"id":"3582026584233746","authorId":"3582026584233746","name":"cookiemonstr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfdda60d9914bdbf35bd08fe9ee92d34","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582026584233746","idStr":"3582026584233746"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like n comment&nbsp;","listText":"Like n comment&nbsp;","text":"Like n comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/133270848","repostId":"2137906121","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":710,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":133338269,"gmtCreate":1621695840851,"gmtModify":1634187100592,"author":{"id":"3582026584233746","authorId":"3582026584233746","name":"cookiemonstr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfdda60d9914bdbf35bd08fe9ee92d34","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582026584233746","idStr":"3582026584233746"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Reply to my comment pls thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Reply to my comment pls thanks&nbsp;","text":"Reply to my comment pls thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/133338269","repostId":"2137906121","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":306,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":193405340,"gmtCreate":1620805863280,"gmtModify":1634196162935,"author":{"id":"3582026584233746","authorId":"3582026584233746","name":"cookiemonstr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfdda60d9914bdbf35bd08fe9ee92d34","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582026584233746","idStr":"3582026584233746"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment&nbsp;","listText":"Like and comment&nbsp;","text":"Like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/193405340","repostId":"1195374535","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195374535","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620805173,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1195374535?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-12 15:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Three Places Where \"Permanently\" Higher Inflation Could Come From<blockquote>“永久”高通胀可能来自三个地方</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195374535","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Tomorrow we get a CPI number which according to consensus at least, will be historic: it will be the","content":"<p>Tomorrow we get a CPI number which according to consensus at least, will be historic: it will be the first 0.3% sequential increase in core (not the much higher headline) prices this century...</p><p><blockquote>明天我们将得到一个CPI数据，至少根据共识，这将是历史性的：这将是本世纪核心价格（而不是更高的总体价格）首次连续上涨0.3%...</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27af6e7edc6cbaf6b622fb05b58c3c4b\" tg-width=\"719\" tg-height=\"451\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>... a talking point which will merely underscore therecent surge in inflation fears across both companies(who can pass these rising costs on to consumers)...</p><p><blockquote>...这个话题只会凸显两家公司最近对通胀的担忧激增（他们可以将这些上升的成本转嫁给消费者）...</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a68a52569c972ded6b731f135eea4d6\" tg-width=\"811\" tg-height=\"576\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>... and consumers (who can't).</p><p><blockquote>...和消费者（谁不能）。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5e6c688cc8aadf696b91436b5817082\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"631\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Yet while households are growing more convinced with each passing day that higher prices will stick, with the NY Fed's latest survey of consumer expectations revealing that over the next year consumers anticipate gasoline prices jumping 9.18%, food prices gaining 5.79%, medical costs surging 9.13%, the price of a college education climbing 5.93%, and rent prices increasing 9.49%...</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管家庭越来越相信价格将持续上涨，但纽约联储最新的消费者预期调查显示，明年消费者预计汽油价格将上涨9.18%，食品价格将上涨5.79%，医疗费用将飙升9.13%，大学教育价格将上涨5.93%，租金价格将上涨9.49%...</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61a55ee10178ca6be09900dc2a1499ad\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>... neither the Fed, nor sellside analysts are willing to concede as much yet. Take BofA's chief economist Michelle Meyer,<b>who expects core PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred measure, to peak at 2.3% this quarter, before settling back down to 1.9% by the end of 2021.</b>Meyer then expects prices to trend slightly higher over the medium term, eventually surpassing the Fed’s target consistently enough (and in an environment of full employment) that interest rate hikes will be warranted, possibly not until the second half 2023.</p><p><blockquote>...美联储和卖方分析师都不愿意做出这么多让步。以美国银行首席经济学家米歇尔·迈耶为例，<b>世卫组织预计，美联储首选的核心PCE通胀率将在本季度达到2.3%的峰值，然后在2021年底回落至1.9%。</b>迈耶随后预计，中期内物价将小幅走高，最终持续超过美联储的目标（并且在充分就业的环境下），加息将是合理的，可能要到2023年下半年。</blockquote></p><p>Needless to say, the market disagrees, and especially the bond market, where traders are pricing in far more inflation and faster Fed hikes than that. But, as BofA's Jared Woodard notes, they often do, and are usually very early: as shown in the chart below, since 2007, rates implied by Fed funds futures have been, on average, 54bp higher than actual interest rates one year later.</p><p><blockquote>不用说，市场并不同意，尤其是债券市场，交易员对通胀和美联储加息速度的定价远高于此。但是，正如美国银行的贾里德·伍德尔德(Jared Woodard)指出的那样，他们经常这样做，而且通常很早：如下图所示，自2007年以来，联邦基金期货隐含的利率平均比一年后的实际利率高出54个基点。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a9e3f386c0eb83cb85332166639cfc2\" tg-width=\"814\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>But maybe this time will be different? As Woodard counters, the challenge for those who expect permanently higher or harmful inflation is to explain where it will come from. In response, the BofA strategist says he can see three possible sources of \"permanent\" inflation, if no no plausible ones.</p><p><blockquote>但也许这一次会有所不同？正如伍德尔德反驳的那样，对于那些预计通胀将永久上升或有害的人来说，面临的挑战是解释通胀将从何而来。作为回应，这位美国银行策略师表示，他可以看到“永久性”通胀的三个可能来源，如果没有的话，也没有可信的来源。</blockquote></p><p><b>1. Scarce goods</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.稀缺商品</b></blockquote></p><p>In 2020, many firms cut capacity and reduced inventories, expecting a long recession. The faster rebound has meant shortages in lumber, corn, copper, etc. Some bottlenecks may lack quick fixes (e.g. semiconductors), but many others can be resolved.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，许多企业削减产能并减少库存，预计经济将长期衰退。更快的反弹意味着木材、玉米、铜等的短缺。一些瓶颈可能缺乏快速解决方案（例如半导体），但许多其他瓶颈是可以解决的。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d139daae62b51fa851325f547b12ff6\" tg-width=\"574\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>More importantly, whether necessitated by Covid or by the reorientation of supply chains toward reliable democracies, a period of higher capex should be tolerable. Many companies have proven pricing power, and in Q1, US corporate profit margins are at record highs.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，无论是新冠疫情还是供应链向可靠民主国家的重新定位所必需的，一段时间的较高资本支出应该是可以忍受的。许多公司已经证明了定价能力，在Q1，美国企业利润率处于历史新高。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55166877bb7a954c6ecb42099092803a\" tg-width=\"572\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Scarce workers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>稀缺工人</b></blockquote></p><p>Woodard then predicts that there are also good reasons to think that any sharp surge in wages will end by Q4 for the following reasons:</p><p><blockquote>伍德尔德随后预测，也有充分的理由认为工资的任何大幅上涨都将在第四季度结束，原因如下：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Labor supply is set to rise sharply.</li><li>Generous unemployment insurance benefits expire in September,</li><li>children will return to public schools,</li><li>health concerns will be alleviated,</li><li>firms will be able to hire from a broader pool of remote workers.</li></ul>Indeed, we have 9.8 million unemployed workers and BofA economists expect an additional 2mm+ returning to the labor force by the fall, by which point the Biden unemployment checks will have expired.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>劳动力供应将大幅上升。</li><li>优厚的失业保险金9月到期，</li><li>孩子们将回到公立学校，</li><li>健康担忧将得到缓解，</li><li>公司将能够从更广泛的远程员工中招聘员工。</li></ul>事实上，我们有980万失业工人，美国银行经济学家预计，到秋季，将有超过200万人重返劳动力市场，届时拜登的失业支票将到期。</blockquote></p><p>Meanwhile, those widespread reports of employers offering hiring bonuses...</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，那些关于雇主提供招聘奖金的广泛报道...</blockquote></p><p>... are a sign of a temporary mismatch, not an incipient spiral. \"A bonus is not a raise\", according to BofA... although it's a key part of one's compensation - we wonder how many BofA bankers would work without one.</p><p><blockquote>...是暂时不匹配的迹象，而不是初期的螺旋。美国银行表示，“奖金不是加薪”...尽管这是一个人薪酬的关键部分，但我们想知道有多少美国银行银行家没有它会工作。</blockquote></p><p>In any case, BofA believes that a higher long-term trend in wage growth would be positive for GDP and productivity: of the firms that said they will not raise capex in the latest Duke CFO survey, 2/3 said it is because they “have no need to expand capacity.” Persistent higher demand is necessary for sustained corporate investment. It’s, therefore, hard even to imagine a wage-spiral tail risk according to Woodard who argues that<b>it would take steady wage gains of 10-12% to push inflation to the levels of the 1970s &amp; 80s...</b></p><p><blockquote>无论如何，美国银行认为，更高的工资增长长期趋势将对GDP和生产率产生积极影响：在杜克大学最新首席财务官调查中表示不会提高资本支出的公司中，2/3表示这是因为他们“没有必要扩大产能。”持续的更高需求对于持续的企业投资是必要的。因此，伍德尔德认为，甚至很难想象工资螺旋尾部风险<b>工资稳定增长10-12%才能将通胀率推至20世纪70年代和80年代的水平...</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f79bff1023630f5919adc5fbbad205fd\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"575\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>...</b>and the US economy is structured very differently today. Non-elite unions are politically toothless. Technology penetrates every industry. The offshoring of more services is coming.</p><p><blockquote><b>...</b>如今，美国经济的结构非常不同。非精英工会在政治上没有影响力。技术渗透每个行业。更多服务的离岸化即将到来。</blockquote></p><p><b>Excess demand</b></p><p><blockquote><b>需求过剩</b></blockquote></p><p>The last argument against persistent inflation is that there are also no signs of excess demand. The latest BofA consumer appears to affirm a “fiscal liquidity trap” thesis.</p><p><blockquote>反对持续通胀的最后一个论点是，也没有需求过剩的迹象。最新的美国银行消费者报告似乎证实了“财政流动性陷阱”的论点。</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>High-income households have excess savings, but history shows they don’t spend; and a chill in high-income spending is more likely in 2021 from the threat of higher taxes (Ricardian equivalence);</li><li>Low-income households received excess stimulus but their spending has already peaked (Exhibit 7) and &lt;10% of new rounds of stimulus are being spent (Exhibit 8).</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5df55809f076503eeb36dc7c238671c4\" tg-width=\"1203\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>高收入家庭有超额储蓄，但历史表明他们不消费；由于高税收的威胁（李嘉图等价），2021年高收入支出更有可能降温；</li><li>低收入家庭获得了过多的刺激，但他们的支出已经达到顶峰（图表7），新一轮刺激的支出不到10%（图表8）。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p>While we are confident that many readers will disagree, Woodard concludes that \"in sum, we expect high inflation levels to be transitory because structural deflationary forces are very strong, most supply shortages can be resolved, wage increases are modest (and helpful long-term in any case), and there is no evidence of excess demand.\"</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们相信许多读者会不同意，但伍德尔德的结论是，“总而言之，我们预计高通胀水平将是暂时的，因为结构性通缩力量非常强大，大多数供应短缺可以得到解决，工资增长温和（并且有助于长期增长）。在任何情况下），并且没有证据表明需求过剩。”</blockquote></p><p>Bullshit, you say. Between the trillions in stimulus and the monetary pump, this time is different.</p><p><blockquote>胡说，你说。在万亿刺激和货币泵之间，这一次是不同的。</blockquote></p><p>Perhaps, but there is another problem: anyone wishing to hedge against soaring inflation faces a daunting high cost (one could almost say \"inflationary\" cost).</p><p><blockquote>也许吧，但还有另一个问题：任何希望对冲飙升的通胀的人都面临着令人生畏的高成本（人们几乎可以说是“通胀”成本）。</blockquote></p><p>As shown in the chart below, historical data show that a permanent portfolio allocation to inflation assets only hurts returns (unlike a deflationary bias). Allocating $1 in 1974 equally to a basket of commodities, gold, global value, and European equities - i.e. inflationary assets -&nbsp; was worth $38 today; at the same time, an allocation to IG corporate bonds, Treasuries, US growth stocks, and the S&amp;P 500 was worth $104.</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，历史数据显示，对通胀资产的永久投资组合配置只会损害回报（与通缩偏见不同）。1974年将1美元平均分配给一篮子大宗商品、黄金、全球价值和欧洲股票——即通胀资产——今天价值38美元；与此同时，IG公司债券、国债、美国成长股和标普500的配置价值104美元。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e8b7135501c05cacea099ec1152a385\" tg-width=\"815\" tg-height=\"626\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Curiously, even a tactical allocation imposes a significant cost unless timed perfectly. BofA economists expect 3.6% average inflation for Q2. Over the last 30 years, there were five occasions when CPI surged above that level (May’01, Sept’05, June’06, Oct’07, June’11).</p><p><blockquote>奇怪的是，除非时机完美，否则即使是战术分配也会带来巨大的成本。美国银行经济学家预计第二季度平均通胀率为3.6%。在过去的30年里，CPI有五次飙升至该水平以上（2001年5月、2005年9月、2006年6月、2007年10月、2011年6月）。</blockquote></p><p>On average, investors who bought inflation assets on those triggers suffered losses over the next year: commodities -10%, value vs growth -2%, EU vs US equities -3% and cyclical vs defensives -1%. Only TIPS and small vs large saw positive average returns. And today, 10-year TIPS yield -0.93%, just 19bps from record lows.</p><p><blockquote>平均而言，在这些触发因素下购买通胀资产的投资者在下一年遭受了损失：大宗商品-10%，价值与成长-2%，欧盟与美国股票-3%，周期性与防御性-1%。只有TIPS和小型vs大型看到了正的平均回报。如今，10年期TIPS收益率为-0.93%，距离历史低点仅19个基点。</blockquote></p><p>In conclusion, Woodard writes that \"<b><i>the best time to buy inflation protection would be after the next “natural” recession, not when inflation expectations are already at 13-year highs.\"</i></b></p><p><blockquote>总之，伍德尔德写道“<b><i>购买通胀保护的最佳时机是在下一次‘自然’衰退之后，而不是在通胀预期已经处于13年高点的时候。”</i></b></blockquote></p><p>While that may true, one thing Woodard refuses to admit - or perhaps forgot to acknowledge - is that in a world where even the BIS admits it is in the business of manipulating gold lower, crypto has emerged as the best inflation hedge in the world. In that case, his entire argument about \"expensive\" inflation hedges can be thrown out, because one look at the return of bitcoin, ethereum, or the various DeFi tokens in the past year, and the conclusion is that the market is convinced that what is coming will make the Weimar and Zimbabwe hyperinflations seem like a walk in the park...</p><p><blockquote>虽然这可能是真的，但伍德沃德拒绝承认——或者可能忘记承认——的一件事是，在一个连国际清算银行都承认自己在操纵黄金走低的世界里，加密货币已经成为世界上最好的通胀对冲工具。在这种情况下，他关于“昂贵的”通胀对冲的整个论点可以被抛出，因为看看过去一年比特币、以太币或各种DeFi代币的回归，结论是市场确信即将到来的事情将使魏玛和辛巴威的恶性通胀看起来像是在公园散步...</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Three Places Where \"Permanently\" Higher Inflation Could Come From<blockquote>“永久”高通胀可能来自三个地方</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThree Places Where \"Permanently\" Higher Inflation Could Come From<blockquote>“永久”高通胀可能来自三个地方</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-12 15:39</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tomorrow we get a CPI number which according to consensus at least, will be historic: it will be the first 0.3% sequential increase in core (not the much higher headline) prices this century...</p><p><blockquote>明天我们将得到一个CPI数据，至少根据共识，这将是历史性的：这将是本世纪核心价格（而不是更高的总体价格）首次连续上涨0.3%...</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27af6e7edc6cbaf6b622fb05b58c3c4b\" tg-width=\"719\" tg-height=\"451\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>... a talking point which will merely underscore therecent surge in inflation fears across both companies(who can pass these rising costs on to consumers)...</p><p><blockquote>...这个话题只会凸显两家公司最近对通胀的担忧激增（他们可以将这些上升的成本转嫁给消费者）...</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a68a52569c972ded6b731f135eea4d6\" tg-width=\"811\" tg-height=\"576\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>... and consumers (who can't).</p><p><blockquote>...和消费者（谁不能）。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5e6c688cc8aadf696b91436b5817082\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"631\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Yet while households are growing more convinced with each passing day that higher prices will stick, with the NY Fed's latest survey of consumer expectations revealing that over the next year consumers anticipate gasoline prices jumping 9.18%, food prices gaining 5.79%, medical costs surging 9.13%, the price of a college education climbing 5.93%, and rent prices increasing 9.49%...</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管家庭越来越相信价格将持续上涨，但纽约联储最新的消费者预期调查显示，明年消费者预计汽油价格将上涨9.18%，食品价格将上涨5.79%，医疗费用将飙升9.13%，大学教育价格将上涨5.93%，租金价格将上涨9.49%...</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61a55ee10178ca6be09900dc2a1499ad\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>... neither the Fed, nor sellside analysts are willing to concede as much yet. Take BofA's chief economist Michelle Meyer,<b>who expects core PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred measure, to peak at 2.3% this quarter, before settling back down to 1.9% by the end of 2021.</b>Meyer then expects prices to trend slightly higher over the medium term, eventually surpassing the Fed’s target consistently enough (and in an environment of full employment) that interest rate hikes will be warranted, possibly not until the second half 2023.</p><p><blockquote>...美联储和卖方分析师都不愿意做出这么多让步。以美国银行首席经济学家米歇尔·迈耶为例，<b>世卫组织预计，美联储首选的核心PCE通胀率将在本季度达到2.3%的峰值，然后在2021年底回落至1.9%。</b>迈耶随后预计，中期内物价将小幅走高，最终持续超过美联储的目标（并且在充分就业的环境下），加息将是合理的，可能要到2023年下半年。</blockquote></p><p>Needless to say, the market disagrees, and especially the bond market, where traders are pricing in far more inflation and faster Fed hikes than that. But, as BofA's Jared Woodard notes, they often do, and are usually very early: as shown in the chart below, since 2007, rates implied by Fed funds futures have been, on average, 54bp higher than actual interest rates one year later.</p><p><blockquote>不用说，市场并不同意，尤其是债券市场，交易员对通胀和美联储加息速度的定价远高于此。但是，正如美国银行的贾里德·伍德尔德(Jared Woodard)指出的那样，他们经常这样做，而且通常很早：如下图所示，自2007年以来，联邦基金期货隐含的利率平均比一年后的实际利率高出54个基点。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a9e3f386c0eb83cb85332166639cfc2\" tg-width=\"814\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>But maybe this time will be different? As Woodard counters, the challenge for those who expect permanently higher or harmful inflation is to explain where it will come from. In response, the BofA strategist says he can see three possible sources of \"permanent\" inflation, if no no plausible ones.</p><p><blockquote>但也许这一次会有所不同？正如伍德尔德反驳的那样，对于那些预计通胀将永久上升或有害的人来说，面临的挑战是解释通胀将从何而来。作为回应，这位美国银行策略师表示，他可以看到“永久性”通胀的三个可能来源，如果没有的话，也没有可信的来源。</blockquote></p><p><b>1. Scarce goods</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.稀缺商品</b></blockquote></p><p>In 2020, many firms cut capacity and reduced inventories, expecting a long recession. The faster rebound has meant shortages in lumber, corn, copper, etc. Some bottlenecks may lack quick fixes (e.g. semiconductors), but many others can be resolved.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，许多企业削减产能并减少库存，预计经济将长期衰退。更快的反弹意味着木材、玉米、铜等的短缺。一些瓶颈可能缺乏快速解决方案（例如半导体），但许多其他瓶颈是可以解决的。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d139daae62b51fa851325f547b12ff6\" tg-width=\"574\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>More importantly, whether necessitated by Covid or by the reorientation of supply chains toward reliable democracies, a period of higher capex should be tolerable. Many companies have proven pricing power, and in Q1, US corporate profit margins are at record highs.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，无论是新冠疫情还是供应链向可靠民主国家的重新定位所必需的，一段时间的较高资本支出应该是可以忍受的。许多公司已经证明了定价能力，在Q1，美国企业利润率处于历史新高。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55166877bb7a954c6ecb42099092803a\" tg-width=\"572\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Scarce workers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>稀缺工人</b></blockquote></p><p>Woodard then predicts that there are also good reasons to think that any sharp surge in wages will end by Q4 for the following reasons:</p><p><blockquote>伍德尔德随后预测，也有充分的理由认为工资的任何大幅上涨都将在第四季度结束，原因如下：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Labor supply is set to rise sharply.</li><li>Generous unemployment insurance benefits expire in September,</li><li>children will return to public schools,</li><li>health concerns will be alleviated,</li><li>firms will be able to hire from a broader pool of remote workers.</li></ul>Indeed, we have 9.8 million unemployed workers and BofA economists expect an additional 2mm+ returning to the labor force by the fall, by which point the Biden unemployment checks will have expired.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>劳动力供应将大幅上升。</li><li>优厚的失业保险金9月到期，</li><li>孩子们将回到公立学校，</li><li>健康担忧将得到缓解，</li><li>公司将能够从更广泛的远程员工中招聘员工。</li></ul>事实上，我们有980万失业工人，美国银行经济学家预计，到秋季，将有超过200万人重返劳动力市场，届时拜登的失业支票将到期。</blockquote></p><p>Meanwhile, those widespread reports of employers offering hiring bonuses...</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，那些关于雇主提供招聘奖金的广泛报道...</blockquote></p><p>... are a sign of a temporary mismatch, not an incipient spiral. \"A bonus is not a raise\", according to BofA... although it's a key part of one's compensation - we wonder how many BofA bankers would work without one.</p><p><blockquote>...是暂时不匹配的迹象，而不是初期的螺旋。美国银行表示，“奖金不是加薪”...尽管这是一个人薪酬的关键部分，但我们想知道有多少美国银行银行家没有它会工作。</blockquote></p><p>In any case, BofA believes that a higher long-term trend in wage growth would be positive for GDP and productivity: of the firms that said they will not raise capex in the latest Duke CFO survey, 2/3 said it is because they “have no need to expand capacity.” Persistent higher demand is necessary for sustained corporate investment. It’s, therefore, hard even to imagine a wage-spiral tail risk according to Woodard who argues that<b>it would take steady wage gains of 10-12% to push inflation to the levels of the 1970s &amp; 80s...</b></p><p><blockquote>无论如何，美国银行认为，更高的工资增长长期趋势将对GDP和生产率产生积极影响：在杜克大学最新首席财务官调查中表示不会提高资本支出的公司中，2/3表示这是因为他们“没有必要扩大产能。”持续的更高需求对于持续的企业投资是必要的。因此，伍德尔德认为，甚至很难想象工资螺旋尾部风险<b>工资稳定增长10-12%才能将通胀率推至20世纪70年代和80年代的水平...</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f79bff1023630f5919adc5fbbad205fd\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"575\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>...</b>and the US economy is structured very differently today. Non-elite unions are politically toothless. Technology penetrates every industry. The offshoring of more services is coming.</p><p><blockquote><b>...</b>如今，美国经济的结构非常不同。非精英工会在政治上没有影响力。技术渗透每个行业。更多服务的离岸化即将到来。</blockquote></p><p><b>Excess demand</b></p><p><blockquote><b>需求过剩</b></blockquote></p><p>The last argument against persistent inflation is that there are also no signs of excess demand. The latest BofA consumer appears to affirm a “fiscal liquidity trap” thesis.</p><p><blockquote>反对持续通胀的最后一个论点是，也没有需求过剩的迹象。最新的美国银行消费者报告似乎证实了“财政流动性陷阱”的论点。</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>High-income households have excess savings, but history shows they don’t spend; and a chill in high-income spending is more likely in 2021 from the threat of higher taxes (Ricardian equivalence);</li><li>Low-income households received excess stimulus but their spending has already peaked (Exhibit 7) and &lt;10% of new rounds of stimulus are being spent (Exhibit 8).</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5df55809f076503eeb36dc7c238671c4\" tg-width=\"1203\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>高收入家庭有超额储蓄，但历史表明他们不消费；由于高税收的威胁（李嘉图等价），2021年高收入支出更有可能降温；</li><li>低收入家庭获得了过多的刺激，但他们的支出已经达到顶峰（图表7），新一轮刺激的支出不到10%（图表8）。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p>While we are confident that many readers will disagree, Woodard concludes that \"in sum, we expect high inflation levels to be transitory because structural deflationary forces are very strong, most supply shortages can be resolved, wage increases are modest (and helpful long-term in any case), and there is no evidence of excess demand.\"</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们相信许多读者会不同意，但伍德尔德的结论是，“总而言之，我们预计高通胀水平将是暂时的，因为结构性通缩力量非常强大，大多数供应短缺可以得到解决，工资增长温和（并且有助于长期增长）。在任何情况下），并且没有证据表明需求过剩。”</blockquote></p><p>Bullshit, you say. Between the trillions in stimulus and the monetary pump, this time is different.</p><p><blockquote>胡说，你说。在万亿刺激和货币泵之间，这一次是不同的。</blockquote></p><p>Perhaps, but there is another problem: anyone wishing to hedge against soaring inflation faces a daunting high cost (one could almost say \"inflationary\" cost).</p><p><blockquote>也许吧，但还有另一个问题：任何希望对冲飙升的通胀的人都面临着令人生畏的高成本（人们几乎可以说是“通胀”成本）。</blockquote></p><p>As shown in the chart below, historical data show that a permanent portfolio allocation to inflation assets only hurts returns (unlike a deflationary bias). Allocating $1 in 1974 equally to a basket of commodities, gold, global value, and European equities - i.e. inflationary assets -&nbsp; was worth $38 today; at the same time, an allocation to IG corporate bonds, Treasuries, US growth stocks, and the S&amp;P 500 was worth $104.</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，历史数据显示，对通胀资产的永久投资组合配置只会损害回报（与通缩偏见不同）。1974年将1美元平均分配给一篮子大宗商品、黄金、全球价值和欧洲股票——即通胀资产——今天价值38美元；与此同时，IG公司债券、国债、美国成长股和标普500的配置价值104美元。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e8b7135501c05cacea099ec1152a385\" tg-width=\"815\" tg-height=\"626\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Curiously, even a tactical allocation imposes a significant cost unless timed perfectly. BofA economists expect 3.6% average inflation for Q2. Over the last 30 years, there were five occasions when CPI surged above that level (May’01, Sept’05, June’06, Oct’07, June’11).</p><p><blockquote>奇怪的是，除非时机完美，否则即使是战术分配也会带来巨大的成本。美国银行经济学家预计第二季度平均通胀率为3.6%。在过去的30年里，CPI有五次飙升至该水平以上（2001年5月、2005年9月、2006年6月、2007年10月、2011年6月）。</blockquote></p><p>On average, investors who bought inflation assets on those triggers suffered losses over the next year: commodities -10%, value vs growth -2%, EU vs US equities -3% and cyclical vs defensives -1%. Only TIPS and small vs large saw positive average returns. And today, 10-year TIPS yield -0.93%, just 19bps from record lows.</p><p><blockquote>平均而言，在这些触发因素下购买通胀资产的投资者在下一年遭受了损失：大宗商品-10%，价值与成长-2%，欧盟与美国股票-3%，周期性与防御性-1%。只有TIPS和小型vs大型看到了正的平均回报。如今，10年期TIPS收益率为-0.93%，距离历史低点仅19个基点。</blockquote></p><p>In conclusion, Woodard writes that \"<b><i>the best time to buy inflation protection would be after the next “natural” recession, not when inflation expectations are already at 13-year highs.\"</i></b></p><p><blockquote>总之，伍德尔德写道“<b><i>购买通胀保护的最佳时机是在下一次‘自然’衰退之后，而不是在通胀预期已经处于13年高点的时候。”</i></b></blockquote></p><p>While that may true, one thing Woodard refuses to admit - or perhaps forgot to acknowledge - is that in a world where even the BIS admits it is in the business of manipulating gold lower, crypto has emerged as the best inflation hedge in the world. In that case, his entire argument about \"expensive\" inflation hedges can be thrown out, because one look at the return of bitcoin, ethereum, or the various DeFi tokens in the past year, and the conclusion is that the market is convinced that what is coming will make the Weimar and Zimbabwe hyperinflations seem like a walk in the park...</p><p><blockquote>虽然这可能是真的，但伍德沃德拒绝承认——或者可能忘记承认——的一件事是，在一个连国际清算银行都承认自己在操纵黄金走低的世界里，加密货币已经成为世界上最好的通胀对冲工具。在这种情况下，他关于“昂贵的”通胀对冲的整个论点可以被抛出，因为看看过去一年比特币、以太币或各种DeFi代币的回归，结论是市场确信即将到来的事情将使魏玛和辛巴威的恶性通胀看起来像是在公园散步...</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/three-places-where-permanently-higher-inflation-could-come\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/three-places-where-permanently-higher-inflation-could-come","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195374535","content_text":"Tomorrow we get a CPI number which according to consensus at least, will be historic: it will be the first 0.3% sequential increase in core (not the much higher headline) prices this century...... a talking point which will merely underscore therecent surge in inflation fears across both companies(who can pass these rising costs on to consumers)...... and consumers (who can't).Yet while households are growing more convinced with each passing day that higher prices will stick, with the NY Fed's latest survey of consumer expectations revealing that over the next year consumers anticipate gasoline prices jumping 9.18%, food prices gaining 5.79%, medical costs surging 9.13%, the price of a college education climbing 5.93%, and rent prices increasing 9.49%...... neither the Fed, nor sellside analysts are willing to concede as much yet. Take BofA's chief economist Michelle Meyer,who expects core PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred measure, to peak at 2.3% this quarter, before settling back down to 1.9% by the end of 2021.Meyer then expects prices to trend slightly higher over the medium term, eventually surpassing the Fed’s target consistently enough (and in an environment of full employment) that interest rate hikes will be warranted, possibly not until the second half 2023.Needless to say, the market disagrees, and especially the bond market, where traders are pricing in far more inflation and faster Fed hikes than that. But, as BofA's Jared Woodard notes, they often do, and are usually very early: as shown in the chart below, since 2007, rates implied by Fed funds futures have been, on average, 54bp higher than actual interest rates one year later.But maybe this time will be different? As Woodard counters, the challenge for those who expect permanently higher or harmful inflation is to explain where it will come from. In response, the BofA strategist says he can see three possible sources of \"permanent\" inflation, if no no plausible ones.1. Scarce goodsIn 2020, many firms cut capacity and reduced inventories, expecting a long recession. The faster rebound has meant shortages in lumber, corn, copper, etc. Some bottlenecks may lack quick fixes (e.g. semiconductors), but many others can be resolved.More importantly, whether necessitated by Covid or by the reorientation of supply chains toward reliable democracies, a period of higher capex should be tolerable. Many companies have proven pricing power, and in Q1, US corporate profit margins are at record highs.Scarce workersWoodard then predicts that there are also good reasons to think that any sharp surge in wages will end by Q4 for the following reasons:Labor supply is set to rise sharply.Generous unemployment insurance benefits expire in September,children will return to public schools,health concerns will be alleviated,firms will be able to hire from a broader pool of remote workers.Indeed, we have 9.8 million unemployed workers and BofA economists expect an additional 2mm+ returning to the labor force by the fall, by which point the Biden unemployment checks will have expired.Meanwhile, those widespread reports of employers offering hiring bonuses...... are a sign of a temporary mismatch, not an incipient spiral. \"A bonus is not a raise\", according to BofA... although it's a key part of one's compensation - we wonder how many BofA bankers would work without one.In any case, BofA believes that a higher long-term trend in wage growth would be positive for GDP and productivity: of the firms that said they will not raise capex in the latest Duke CFO survey, 2/3 said it is because they “have no need to expand capacity.” Persistent higher demand is necessary for sustained corporate investment. It’s, therefore, hard even to imagine a wage-spiral tail risk according to Woodard who argues thatit would take steady wage gains of 10-12% to push inflation to the levels of the 1970s & 80s......and the US economy is structured very differently today. Non-elite unions are politically toothless. Technology penetrates every industry. The offshoring of more services is coming.Excess demandThe last argument against persistent inflation is that there are also no signs of excess demand. The latest BofA consumer appears to affirm a “fiscal liquidity trap” thesis.High-income households have excess savings, but history shows they don’t spend; and a chill in high-income spending is more likely in 2021 from the threat of higher taxes (Ricardian equivalence);Low-income households received excess stimulus but their spending has already peaked (Exhibit 7) and <10% of new rounds of stimulus are being spent (Exhibit 8).While we are confident that many readers will disagree, Woodard concludes that \"in sum, we expect high inflation levels to be transitory because structural deflationary forces are very strong, most supply shortages can be resolved, wage increases are modest (and helpful long-term in any case), and there is no evidence of excess demand.\"Bullshit, you say. Between the trillions in stimulus and the monetary pump, this time is different.Perhaps, but there is another problem: anyone wishing to hedge against soaring inflation faces a daunting high cost (one could almost say \"inflationary\" cost).As shown in the chart below, historical data show that a permanent portfolio allocation to inflation assets only hurts returns (unlike a deflationary bias). Allocating $1 in 1974 equally to a basket of commodities, gold, global value, and European equities - i.e. inflationary assets -  was worth $38 today; at the same time, an allocation to IG corporate bonds, Treasuries, US growth stocks, and the S&P 500 was worth $104.Curiously, even a tactical allocation imposes a significant cost unless timed perfectly. BofA economists expect 3.6% average inflation for Q2. Over the last 30 years, there were five occasions when CPI surged above that level (May’01, Sept’05, June’06, Oct’07, June’11).On average, investors who bought inflation assets on those triggers suffered losses over the next year: commodities -10%, value vs growth -2%, EU vs US equities -3% and cyclical vs defensives -1%. Only TIPS and small vs large saw positive average returns. And today, 10-year TIPS yield -0.93%, just 19bps from record lows.In conclusion, Woodard writes that \"the best time to buy inflation protection would be after the next “natural” recession, not when inflation expectations are already at 13-year highs.\"While that may true, one thing Woodard refuses to admit - or perhaps forgot to acknowledge - is that in a world where even the BIS admits it is in the business of manipulating gold lower, crypto has emerged as the best inflation hedge in the world. In that case, his entire argument about \"expensive\" inflation hedges can be thrown out, because one look at the return of bitcoin, ethereum, or the various DeFi tokens in the past year, and the conclusion is that the market is convinced that what is coming will make the Weimar and Zimbabwe hyperinflations seem like a walk in the park...","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":450,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181107450,"gmtCreate":1623376896470,"gmtModify":1631889813895,"author":{"id":"3582026584233746","authorId":"3582026584233746","name":"cookiemonstr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfdda60d9914bdbf35bd08fe9ee92d34","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582026584233746","idStr":"3582026584233746"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like n comment","listText":"Like n comment","text":"Like n comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181107450","repostId":"1184070773","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2143,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":133095285,"gmtCreate":1621665377147,"gmtModify":1634187255196,"author":{"id":"3582026584233746","authorId":"3582026584233746","name":"cookiemonstr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfdda60d9914bdbf35bd08fe9ee92d34","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582026584233746","idStr":"3582026584233746"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like n comment thanks","listText":"Like n comment thanks","text":"Like n comment thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/133095285","repostId":"2137906121","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":416,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":139077291,"gmtCreate":1621580442013,"gmtModify":1634187912957,"author":{"id":"3582026584233746","authorId":"3582026584233746","name":"cookiemonstr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfdda60d9914bdbf35bd08fe9ee92d34","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582026584233746","idStr":"3582026584233746"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy aapl? :D like and comment pls","listText":"Buy aapl? :D like and comment pls","text":"Buy aapl? :D like and comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/139077291","repostId":"1146570916","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146570916","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621579990,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1146570916?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-21 14:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buy Apple Stock Because Strong iPhone Demand Is Good News for All Its Products<blockquote>购买苹果股票，因为强劲的iPhone需求对其所有产品来说都是好消息</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146570916","media":"Barrons","summary":"Apple is now more than six months into the iPhone 12 era, and demand for the company’s first 5G hand","content":"<p>Apple is now more than six months into the iPhone 12 era, and demand for the company’s first 5G handset lineup remains remarkably strong.</p><p><blockquote>苹果进入iPhone 12时代已经六个多月了，对该公司首款5G手机系列的需求仍然非常强劲。</blockquote></p><p> In a research note Thursday, UBS analyst David Vogt notes that a survey of more than 7,000 smartphone users in the U.S., U.K., China, Germany and Japan found that 22% intend to buy iPhones within the next 12 months, the highest reading in five years.</p><p><blockquote>瑞银（UBS）分析师大卫·沃格特（David Vogt）在周四的一份研究报告中指出，对美国、英国、中国、德国和日本7000多名智能手机用户的调查发现，22%的人打算在未来12个月内购买iPhones，这是五年来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, iPhone retention rates—the number of people who intend to stay on the platform when they switch phones—reached 86%, the best reading in seven years. Interest in 5G wireless is “modestly improved,” he writes, consistent with Apple’s view that we are in the early days of 5G adoption. As a result, Apple’s (ticker: AAPL) current stock price “does not reflect the stickiness of the Apple ecosystem,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>此外，iPhone留存率（即在更换手机时打算留在该平台的人数）达到86%，为七年来的最佳读数。他写道，人们对5G无线的兴趣“略有提高”，这与苹果的观点一致，即我们正处于5G采用的早期阶段。因此，苹果（股票代码：AAPL）目前的股价“并不能反映苹果生态系统的粘性”，他表示。</blockquote></p><p> Vogt adds that every region showed a “solid” year-over-year increase in iPhone purchase intent, other than China, which was flat. He sees iPhone units sales of 225 million in the September 2021 fiscal year, and 220 million for fiscal 2022, consistent with overall buy-side estimates.</p><p><blockquote>Vogt补充说，除中国持平外，每个地区的iPhone购买意向都出现了“稳健”的同比增长。他预计2021年9月财年iPhone销量为2.25亿部，2022财年为2.2亿部，与买方的总体预期一致。</blockquote></p><p> The UBS analyst also stresses that strong iPhone demand has spillover effects on other Apple products and services. The survey also asked about the&nbsp;Apple Watch. About 37% of respondents said they were likely or somewhat likely to buy a smartwatch over the next 12 months, while 80% were aware of the Apple Watch.</p><p><blockquote>瑞银分析师还强调，强劲的iPhone需求会对苹果的其他产品和服务产生溢出效应。调查还询问了苹果观察。约37%的受访者表示，他们可能或有点可能在未来12个月内购买智能手表，而80%的受访者知道苹果手表。</blockquote></p><p> Vogt maintains his Buy rating and $155 price target. He says the target reflects a value for “core” Apple of $141, plus $14 to account for the “probability-weighted” potential for an Apple car.</p><p><blockquote>Vogt维持买入评级和155美元的目标价。他表示，该目标反映了141美元的“核心”苹果价值，加上14美元，以考虑苹果汽车的“概率加权”潜力。</blockquote></p><p> Apple stock rose 2.1% to $127.31 on Thursday. The stock is down about 4% year to date, after an 81% rally in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价周四上涨2.1%，至127.31美元。该股在2020年上涨81%后，今年迄今已下跌约4%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buy Apple Stock Because Strong iPhone Demand Is Good News for All Its Products<blockquote>购买苹果股票，因为强劲的iPhone需求对其所有产品来说都是好消息</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuy Apple Stock Because Strong iPhone Demand Is Good News for All Its Products<blockquote>购买苹果股票，因为强劲的iPhone需求对其所有产品来说都是好消息</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-21 14:53</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple is now more than six months into the iPhone 12 era, and demand for the company’s first 5G handset lineup remains remarkably strong.</p><p><blockquote>苹果进入iPhone 12时代已经六个多月了，对该公司首款5G手机系列的需求仍然非常强劲。</blockquote></p><p> In a research note Thursday, UBS analyst David Vogt notes that a survey of more than 7,000 smartphone users in the U.S., U.K., China, Germany and Japan found that 22% intend to buy iPhones within the next 12 months, the highest reading in five years.</p><p><blockquote>瑞银（UBS）分析师大卫·沃格特（David Vogt）在周四的一份研究报告中指出，对美国、英国、中国、德国和日本7000多名智能手机用户的调查发现，22%的人打算在未来12个月内购买iPhones，这是五年来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, iPhone retention rates—the number of people who intend to stay on the platform when they switch phones—reached 86%, the best reading in seven years. Interest in 5G wireless is “modestly improved,” he writes, consistent with Apple’s view that we are in the early days of 5G adoption. As a result, Apple’s (ticker: AAPL) current stock price “does not reflect the stickiness of the Apple ecosystem,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>此外，iPhone留存率（即在更换手机时打算留在该平台的人数）达到86%，为七年来的最佳读数。他写道，人们对5G无线的兴趣“略有提高”，这与苹果的观点一致，即我们正处于5G采用的早期阶段。因此，苹果（股票代码：AAPL）目前的股价“并不能反映苹果生态系统的粘性”，他表示。</blockquote></p><p> Vogt adds that every region showed a “solid” year-over-year increase in iPhone purchase intent, other than China, which was flat. He sees iPhone units sales of 225 million in the September 2021 fiscal year, and 220 million for fiscal 2022, consistent with overall buy-side estimates.</p><p><blockquote>Vogt补充说，除中国持平外，每个地区的iPhone购买意向都出现了“稳健”的同比增长。他预计2021年9月财年iPhone销量为2.25亿部，2022财年为2.2亿部，与买方的总体预期一致。</blockquote></p><p> The UBS analyst also stresses that strong iPhone demand has spillover effects on other Apple products and services. The survey also asked about the&nbsp;Apple Watch. About 37% of respondents said they were likely or somewhat likely to buy a smartwatch over the next 12 months, while 80% were aware of the Apple Watch.</p><p><blockquote>瑞银分析师还强调，强劲的iPhone需求会对苹果的其他产品和服务产生溢出效应。调查还询问了苹果观察。约37%的受访者表示，他们可能或有点可能在未来12个月内购买智能手表，而80%的受访者知道苹果手表。</blockquote></p><p> Vogt maintains his Buy rating and $155 price target. He says the target reflects a value for “core” Apple of $141, plus $14 to account for the “probability-weighted” potential for an Apple car.</p><p><blockquote>Vogt维持买入评级和155美元的目标价。他表示，该目标反映了141美元的“核心”苹果价值，加上14美元，以考虑苹果汽车的“概率加权”潜力。</blockquote></p><p> Apple stock rose 2.1% to $127.31 on Thursday. The stock is down about 4% year to date, after an 81% rally in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价周四上涨2.1%，至127.31美元。该股在2020年上涨81%后，今年迄今已下跌约4%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/buy-apple-stock-iphone-12-demand-51621535848?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_2_1\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/buy-apple-stock-iphone-12-demand-51621535848?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_2_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146570916","content_text":"Apple is now more than six months into the iPhone 12 era, and demand for the company’s first 5G handset lineup remains remarkably strong.\nIn a research note Thursday, UBS analyst David Vogt notes that a survey of more than 7,000 smartphone users in the U.S., U.K., China, Germany and Japan found that 22% intend to buy iPhones within the next 12 months, the highest reading in five years.\nIn addition, iPhone retention rates—the number of people who intend to stay on the platform when they switch phones—reached 86%, the best reading in seven years. Interest in 5G wireless is “modestly improved,” he writes, consistent with Apple’s view that we are in the early days of 5G adoption. As a result, Apple’s (ticker: AAPL) current stock price “does not reflect the stickiness of the Apple ecosystem,” he says.\nVogt adds that every region showed a “solid” year-over-year increase in iPhone purchase intent, other than China, which was flat. He sees iPhone units sales of 225 million in the September 2021 fiscal year, and 220 million for fiscal 2022, consistent with overall buy-side estimates.\nThe UBS analyst also stresses that strong iPhone demand has spillover effects on other Apple products and services. The survey also asked about the Apple Watch. About 37% of respondents said they were likely or somewhat likely to buy a smartwatch over the next 12 months, while 80% were aware of the Apple Watch.\nVogt maintains his Buy rating and $155 price target. He says the target reflects a value for “core” Apple of $141, plus $14 to account for the “probability-weighted” potential for an Apple car.\nApple stock rose 2.1% to $127.31 on Thursday. The stock is down about 4% year to date, after an 81% rally in 2020.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":345,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":193405759,"gmtCreate":1620805925671,"gmtModify":1634196162460,"author":{"id":"3582026584233746","authorId":"3582026584233746","name":"cookiemonstr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfdda60d9914bdbf35bd08fe9ee92d34","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582026584233746","idStr":"3582026584233746"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment&nbsp;","listText":"Like and comment&nbsp;","text":"Like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/193405759","repostId":"1195374535","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195374535","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620805173,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1195374535?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-12 15:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Three Places Where \"Permanently\" Higher Inflation Could Come From<blockquote>“永久”高通胀可能来自三个地方</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195374535","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Tomorrow we get a CPI number which according to consensus at least, will be historic: it will be the","content":"<p>Tomorrow we get a CPI number which according to consensus at least, will be historic: it will be the first 0.3% sequential increase in core (not the much higher headline) prices this century...</p><p><blockquote>明天我们将得到一个CPI数据，至少根据共识，这将是历史性的：这将是本世纪核心价格（而不是更高的总体价格）首次连续上涨0.3%...</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27af6e7edc6cbaf6b622fb05b58c3c4b\" tg-width=\"719\" tg-height=\"451\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>... a talking point which will merely underscore therecent surge in inflation fears across both companies(who can pass these rising costs on to consumers)...</p><p><blockquote>...这个话题只会凸显两家公司最近对通胀的担忧激增（他们可以将这些上升的成本转嫁给消费者）...</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a68a52569c972ded6b731f135eea4d6\" tg-width=\"811\" tg-height=\"576\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>... and consumers (who can't).</p><p><blockquote>...和消费者（谁不能）。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5e6c688cc8aadf696b91436b5817082\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"631\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Yet while households are growing more convinced with each passing day that higher prices will stick, with the NY Fed's latest survey of consumer expectations revealing that over the next year consumers anticipate gasoline prices jumping 9.18%, food prices gaining 5.79%, medical costs surging 9.13%, the price of a college education climbing 5.93%, and rent prices increasing 9.49%...</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管家庭越来越相信价格将持续上涨，但纽约联储最新的消费者预期调查显示，明年消费者预计汽油价格将上涨9.18%，食品价格将上涨5.79%，医疗费用将飙升9.13%，大学教育价格将上涨5.93%，租金价格将上涨9.49%...</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61a55ee10178ca6be09900dc2a1499ad\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>... neither the Fed, nor sellside analysts are willing to concede as much yet. Take BofA's chief economist Michelle Meyer,<b>who expects core PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred measure, to peak at 2.3% this quarter, before settling back down to 1.9% by the end of 2021.</b>Meyer then expects prices to trend slightly higher over the medium term, eventually surpassing the Fed’s target consistently enough (and in an environment of full employment) that interest rate hikes will be warranted, possibly not until the second half 2023.</p><p><blockquote>...美联储和卖方分析师都不愿意做出这么多让步。以美国银行首席经济学家米歇尔·迈耶为例，<b>世卫组织预计，美联储首选的核心PCE通胀率将在本季度达到2.3%的峰值，然后在2021年底回落至1.9%。</b>迈耶随后预计，中期内物价将小幅走高，最终持续超过美联储的目标（并且在充分就业的环境下），加息将是合理的，可能要到2023年下半年。</blockquote></p><p>Needless to say, the market disagrees, and especially the bond market, where traders are pricing in far more inflation and faster Fed hikes than that. But, as BofA's Jared Woodard notes, they often do, and are usually very early: as shown in the chart below, since 2007, rates implied by Fed funds futures have been, on average, 54bp higher than actual interest rates one year later.</p><p><blockquote>不用说，市场并不同意，尤其是债券市场，交易员对通胀和美联储加息速度的定价远高于此。但是，正如美国银行的贾里德·伍德尔德(Jared Woodard)指出的那样，他们经常这样做，而且通常很早：如下图所示，自2007年以来，联邦基金期货隐含的利率平均比一年后的实际利率高出54个基点。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a9e3f386c0eb83cb85332166639cfc2\" tg-width=\"814\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>But maybe this time will be different? As Woodard counters, the challenge for those who expect permanently higher or harmful inflation is to explain where it will come from. In response, the BofA strategist says he can see three possible sources of \"permanent\" inflation, if no no plausible ones.</p><p><blockquote>但也许这一次会有所不同？正如伍德尔德反驳的那样，对于那些预计通胀将永久上升或有害的人来说，面临的挑战是解释通胀将从何而来。作为回应，这位美国银行策略师表示，他可以看到“永久性”通胀的三个可能来源，如果没有的话，也没有可信的来源。</blockquote></p><p><b>1. Scarce goods</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.稀缺商品</b></blockquote></p><p>In 2020, many firms cut capacity and reduced inventories, expecting a long recession. The faster rebound has meant shortages in lumber, corn, copper, etc. Some bottlenecks may lack quick fixes (e.g. semiconductors), but many others can be resolved.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，许多企业削减产能并减少库存，预计经济将长期衰退。更快的反弹意味着木材、玉米、铜等的短缺。一些瓶颈可能缺乏快速解决方案（例如半导体），但许多其他瓶颈是可以解决的。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d139daae62b51fa851325f547b12ff6\" tg-width=\"574\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>More importantly, whether necessitated by Covid or by the reorientation of supply chains toward reliable democracies, a period of higher capex should be tolerable. Many companies have proven pricing power, and in Q1, US corporate profit margins are at record highs.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，无论是新冠疫情还是供应链向可靠民主国家的重新定位所必需的，一段时间的较高资本支出应该是可以忍受的。许多公司已经证明了定价能力，在Q1，美国企业利润率处于历史新高。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55166877bb7a954c6ecb42099092803a\" tg-width=\"572\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Scarce workers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>稀缺工人</b></blockquote></p><p>Woodard then predicts that there are also good reasons to think that any sharp surge in wages will end by Q4 for the following reasons:</p><p><blockquote>伍德尔德随后预测，也有充分的理由认为工资的任何大幅上涨都将在第四季度结束，原因如下：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Labor supply is set to rise sharply.</li><li>Generous unemployment insurance benefits expire in September,</li><li>children will return to public schools,</li><li>health concerns will be alleviated,</li><li>firms will be able to hire from a broader pool of remote workers.</li></ul>Indeed, we have 9.8 million unemployed workers and BofA economists expect an additional 2mm+ returning to the labor force by the fall, by which point the Biden unemployment checks will have expired.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>劳动力供应将大幅上升。</li><li>优厚的失业保险金9月到期，</li><li>孩子们将回到公立学校，</li><li>健康担忧将得到缓解，</li><li>公司将能够从更广泛的远程员工中招聘员工。</li></ul>事实上，我们有980万失业工人，美国银行经济学家预计，到秋季，将有超过200万人重返劳动力市场，届时拜登的失业支票将到期。</blockquote></p><p>Meanwhile, those widespread reports of employers offering hiring bonuses...</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，那些关于雇主提供招聘奖金的广泛报道...</blockquote></p><p>... are a sign of a temporary mismatch, not an incipient spiral. \"A bonus is not a raise\", according to BofA... although it's a key part of one's compensation - we wonder how many BofA bankers would work without one.</p><p><blockquote>...是暂时不匹配的迹象，而不是初期的螺旋。美国银行表示，“奖金不是加薪”...尽管这是一个人薪酬的关键部分，但我们想知道有多少美国银行银行家没有它会工作。</blockquote></p><p>In any case, BofA believes that a higher long-term trend in wage growth would be positive for GDP and productivity: of the firms that said they will not raise capex in the latest Duke CFO survey, 2/3 said it is because they “have no need to expand capacity.” Persistent higher demand is necessary for sustained corporate investment. It’s, therefore, hard even to imagine a wage-spiral tail risk according to Woodard who argues that<b>it would take steady wage gains of 10-12% to push inflation to the levels of the 1970s &amp; 80s...</b></p><p><blockquote>无论如何，美国银行认为，更高的工资增长长期趋势将对GDP和生产率产生积极影响：在杜克大学最新首席财务官调查中表示不会提高资本支出的公司中，2/3表示这是因为他们“没有必要扩大产能。”持续的更高需求对于持续的企业投资是必要的。因此，伍德尔德认为，甚至很难想象工资螺旋尾部风险<b>工资稳定增长10-12%才能将通胀率推至20世纪70年代和80年代的水平...</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f79bff1023630f5919adc5fbbad205fd\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"575\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>...</b>and the US economy is structured very differently today. Non-elite unions are politically toothless. Technology penetrates every industry. The offshoring of more services is coming.</p><p><blockquote><b>...</b>如今，美国经济的结构非常不同。非精英工会在政治上没有影响力。技术渗透每个行业。更多服务的离岸化即将到来。</blockquote></p><p><b>Excess demand</b></p><p><blockquote><b>需求过剩</b></blockquote></p><p>The last argument against persistent inflation is that there are also no signs of excess demand. The latest BofA consumer appears to affirm a “fiscal liquidity trap” thesis.</p><p><blockquote>反对持续通胀的最后一个论点是，也没有需求过剩的迹象。最新的美国银行消费者报告似乎证实了“财政流动性陷阱”的论点。</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>High-income households have excess savings, but history shows they don’t spend; and a chill in high-income spending is more likely in 2021 from the threat of higher taxes (Ricardian equivalence);</li><li>Low-income households received excess stimulus but their spending has already peaked (Exhibit 7) and &lt;10% of new rounds of stimulus are being spent (Exhibit 8).</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5df55809f076503eeb36dc7c238671c4\" tg-width=\"1203\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>高收入家庭有超额储蓄，但历史表明他们不消费；由于高税收的威胁（李嘉图等价），2021年高收入支出更有可能降温；</li><li>低收入家庭获得了过多的刺激，但他们的支出已经达到顶峰（图表7），新一轮刺激的支出不到10%（图表8）。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p>While we are confident that many readers will disagree, Woodard concludes that \"in sum, we expect high inflation levels to be transitory because structural deflationary forces are very strong, most supply shortages can be resolved, wage increases are modest (and helpful long-term in any case), and there is no evidence of excess demand.\"</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们相信许多读者会不同意，但伍德尔德的结论是，“总而言之，我们预计高通胀水平将是暂时的，因为结构性通缩力量非常强大，大多数供应短缺可以得到解决，工资增长温和（并且有助于长期增长）。在任何情况下），并且没有证据表明需求过剩。”</blockquote></p><p>Bullshit, you say. Between the trillions in stimulus and the monetary pump, this time is different.</p><p><blockquote>胡说，你说。在万亿刺激和货币泵之间，这一次是不同的。</blockquote></p><p>Perhaps, but there is another problem: anyone wishing to hedge against soaring inflation faces a daunting high cost (one could almost say \"inflationary\" cost).</p><p><blockquote>也许吧，但还有另一个问题：任何希望对冲飙升的通胀的人都面临着令人生畏的高成本（人们几乎可以说是“通胀”成本）。</blockquote></p><p>As shown in the chart below, historical data show that a permanent portfolio allocation to inflation assets only hurts returns (unlike a deflationary bias). Allocating $1 in 1974 equally to a basket of commodities, gold, global value, and European equities - i.e. inflationary assets -&nbsp; was worth $38 today; at the same time, an allocation to IG corporate bonds, Treasuries, US growth stocks, and the S&amp;P 500 was worth $104.</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，历史数据显示，对通胀资产的永久投资组合配置只会损害回报（与通缩偏见不同）。1974年将1美元平均分配给一篮子大宗商品、黄金、全球价值和欧洲股票——即通胀资产——今天价值38美元；与此同时，IG公司债券、国债、美国成长股和标普500的配置价值104美元。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e8b7135501c05cacea099ec1152a385\" tg-width=\"815\" tg-height=\"626\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Curiously, even a tactical allocation imposes a significant cost unless timed perfectly. BofA economists expect 3.6% average inflation for Q2. Over the last 30 years, there were five occasions when CPI surged above that level (May’01, Sept’05, June’06, Oct’07, June’11).</p><p><blockquote>奇怪的是，除非时机完美，否则即使是战术分配也会带来巨大的成本。美国银行经济学家预计第二季度平均通胀率为3.6%。在过去的30年里，CPI有五次飙升至该水平以上（2001年5月、2005年9月、2006年6月、2007年10月、2011年6月）。</blockquote></p><p>On average, investors who bought inflation assets on those triggers suffered losses over the next year: commodities -10%, value vs growth -2%, EU vs US equities -3% and cyclical vs defensives -1%. Only TIPS and small vs large saw positive average returns. And today, 10-year TIPS yield -0.93%, just 19bps from record lows.</p><p><blockquote>平均而言，在这些触发因素下购买通胀资产的投资者在下一年遭受了损失：大宗商品-10%，价值与成长-2%，欧盟与美国股票-3%，周期性与防御性-1%。只有TIPS和小型vs大型看到了正的平均回报。如今，10年期TIPS收益率为-0.93%，距离历史低点仅19个基点。</blockquote></p><p>In conclusion, Woodard writes that \"<b><i>the best time to buy inflation protection would be after the next “natural” recession, not when inflation expectations are already at 13-year highs.\"</i></b></p><p><blockquote>总之，伍德尔德写道“<b><i>购买通胀保护的最佳时机是在下一次‘自然’衰退之后，而不是在通胀预期已经处于13年高点的时候。”</i></b></blockquote></p><p>While that may true, one thing Woodard refuses to admit - or perhaps forgot to acknowledge - is that in a world where even the BIS admits it is in the business of manipulating gold lower, crypto has emerged as the best inflation hedge in the world. In that case, his entire argument about \"expensive\" inflation hedges can be thrown out, because one look at the return of bitcoin, ethereum, or the various DeFi tokens in the past year, and the conclusion is that the market is convinced that what is coming will make the Weimar and Zimbabwe hyperinflations seem like a walk in the park...</p><p><blockquote>虽然这可能是真的，但伍德沃德拒绝承认——或者可能忘记承认——的一件事是，在一个连国际清算银行都承认自己在操纵黄金走低的世界里，加密货币已经成为世界上最好的通胀对冲工具。在这种情况下，他关于“昂贵的”通胀对冲的整个论点可以被抛出，因为看看过去一年比特币、以太币或各种DeFi代币的回归，结论是市场确信即将到来的事情将使魏玛和辛巴威的恶性通胀看起来像是在公园散步...</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Three Places Where \"Permanently\" Higher Inflation Could Come From<blockquote>“永久”高通胀可能来自三个地方</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThree Places Where \"Permanently\" Higher Inflation Could Come From<blockquote>“永久”高通胀可能来自三个地方</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-12 15:39</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tomorrow we get a CPI number which according to consensus at least, will be historic: it will be the first 0.3% sequential increase in core (not the much higher headline) prices this century...</p><p><blockquote>明天我们将得到一个CPI数据，至少根据共识，这将是历史性的：这将是本世纪核心价格（而不是更高的总体价格）首次连续上涨0.3%...</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27af6e7edc6cbaf6b622fb05b58c3c4b\" tg-width=\"719\" tg-height=\"451\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>... a talking point which will merely underscore therecent surge in inflation fears across both companies(who can pass these rising costs on to consumers)...</p><p><blockquote>...这个话题只会凸显两家公司最近对通胀的担忧激增（他们可以将这些上升的成本转嫁给消费者）...</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a68a52569c972ded6b731f135eea4d6\" tg-width=\"811\" tg-height=\"576\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>... and consumers (who can't).</p><p><blockquote>...和消费者（谁不能）。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5e6c688cc8aadf696b91436b5817082\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"631\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Yet while households are growing more convinced with each passing day that higher prices will stick, with the NY Fed's latest survey of consumer expectations revealing that over the next year consumers anticipate gasoline prices jumping 9.18%, food prices gaining 5.79%, medical costs surging 9.13%, the price of a college education climbing 5.93%, and rent prices increasing 9.49%...</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管家庭越来越相信价格将持续上涨，但纽约联储最新的消费者预期调查显示，明年消费者预计汽油价格将上涨9.18%，食品价格将上涨5.79%，医疗费用将飙升9.13%，大学教育价格将上涨5.93%，租金价格将上涨9.49%...</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61a55ee10178ca6be09900dc2a1499ad\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>... neither the Fed, nor sellside analysts are willing to concede as much yet. Take BofA's chief economist Michelle Meyer,<b>who expects core PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred measure, to peak at 2.3% this quarter, before settling back down to 1.9% by the end of 2021.</b>Meyer then expects prices to trend slightly higher over the medium term, eventually surpassing the Fed’s target consistently enough (and in an environment of full employment) that interest rate hikes will be warranted, possibly not until the second half 2023.</p><p><blockquote>...美联储和卖方分析师都不愿意做出这么多让步。以美国银行首席经济学家米歇尔·迈耶为例，<b>世卫组织预计，美联储首选的核心PCE通胀率将在本季度达到2.3%的峰值，然后在2021年底回落至1.9%。</b>迈耶随后预计，中期内物价将小幅走高，最终持续超过美联储的目标（并且在充分就业的环境下），加息将是合理的，可能要到2023年下半年。</blockquote></p><p>Needless to say, the market disagrees, and especially the bond market, where traders are pricing in far more inflation and faster Fed hikes than that. But, as BofA's Jared Woodard notes, they often do, and are usually very early: as shown in the chart below, since 2007, rates implied by Fed funds futures have been, on average, 54bp higher than actual interest rates one year later.</p><p><blockquote>不用说，市场并不同意，尤其是债券市场，交易员对通胀和美联储加息速度的定价远高于此。但是，正如美国银行的贾里德·伍德尔德(Jared Woodard)指出的那样，他们经常这样做，而且通常很早：如下图所示，自2007年以来，联邦基金期货隐含的利率平均比一年后的实际利率高出54个基点。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a9e3f386c0eb83cb85332166639cfc2\" tg-width=\"814\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>But maybe this time will be different? As Woodard counters, the challenge for those who expect permanently higher or harmful inflation is to explain where it will come from. In response, the BofA strategist says he can see three possible sources of \"permanent\" inflation, if no no plausible ones.</p><p><blockquote>但也许这一次会有所不同？正如伍德尔德反驳的那样，对于那些预计通胀将永久上升或有害的人来说，面临的挑战是解释通胀将从何而来。作为回应，这位美国银行策略师表示，他可以看到“永久性”通胀的三个可能来源，如果没有的话，也没有可信的来源。</blockquote></p><p><b>1. Scarce goods</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.稀缺商品</b></blockquote></p><p>In 2020, many firms cut capacity and reduced inventories, expecting a long recession. The faster rebound has meant shortages in lumber, corn, copper, etc. Some bottlenecks may lack quick fixes (e.g. semiconductors), but many others can be resolved.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，许多企业削减产能并减少库存，预计经济将长期衰退。更快的反弹意味着木材、玉米、铜等的短缺。一些瓶颈可能缺乏快速解决方案（例如半导体），但许多其他瓶颈是可以解决的。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d139daae62b51fa851325f547b12ff6\" tg-width=\"574\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>More importantly, whether necessitated by Covid or by the reorientation of supply chains toward reliable democracies, a period of higher capex should be tolerable. Many companies have proven pricing power, and in Q1, US corporate profit margins are at record highs.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，无论是新冠疫情还是供应链向可靠民主国家的重新定位所必需的，一段时间的较高资本支出应该是可以忍受的。许多公司已经证明了定价能力，在Q1，美国企业利润率处于历史新高。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55166877bb7a954c6ecb42099092803a\" tg-width=\"572\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Scarce workers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>稀缺工人</b></blockquote></p><p>Woodard then predicts that there are also good reasons to think that any sharp surge in wages will end by Q4 for the following reasons:</p><p><blockquote>伍德尔德随后预测，也有充分的理由认为工资的任何大幅上涨都将在第四季度结束，原因如下：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Labor supply is set to rise sharply.</li><li>Generous unemployment insurance benefits expire in September,</li><li>children will return to public schools,</li><li>health concerns will be alleviated,</li><li>firms will be able to hire from a broader pool of remote workers.</li></ul>Indeed, we have 9.8 million unemployed workers and BofA economists expect an additional 2mm+ returning to the labor force by the fall, by which point the Biden unemployment checks will have expired.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>劳动力供应将大幅上升。</li><li>优厚的失业保险金9月到期，</li><li>孩子们将回到公立学校，</li><li>健康担忧将得到缓解，</li><li>公司将能够从更广泛的远程员工中招聘员工。</li></ul>事实上，我们有980万失业工人，美国银行经济学家预计，到秋季，将有超过200万人重返劳动力市场，届时拜登的失业支票将到期。</blockquote></p><p>Meanwhile, those widespread reports of employers offering hiring bonuses...</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，那些关于雇主提供招聘奖金的广泛报道...</blockquote></p><p>... are a sign of a temporary mismatch, not an incipient spiral. \"A bonus is not a raise\", according to BofA... although it's a key part of one's compensation - we wonder how many BofA bankers would work without one.</p><p><blockquote>...是暂时不匹配的迹象，而不是初期的螺旋。美国银行表示，“奖金不是加薪”...尽管这是一个人薪酬的关键部分，但我们想知道有多少美国银行银行家没有它会工作。</blockquote></p><p>In any case, BofA believes that a higher long-term trend in wage growth would be positive for GDP and productivity: of the firms that said they will not raise capex in the latest Duke CFO survey, 2/3 said it is because they “have no need to expand capacity.” Persistent higher demand is necessary for sustained corporate investment. It’s, therefore, hard even to imagine a wage-spiral tail risk according to Woodard who argues that<b>it would take steady wage gains of 10-12% to push inflation to the levels of the 1970s &amp; 80s...</b></p><p><blockquote>无论如何，美国银行认为，更高的工资增长长期趋势将对GDP和生产率产生积极影响：在杜克大学最新首席财务官调查中表示不会提高资本支出的公司中，2/3表示这是因为他们“没有必要扩大产能。”持续的更高需求对于持续的企业投资是必要的。因此，伍德尔德认为，甚至很难想象工资螺旋尾部风险<b>工资稳定增长10-12%才能将通胀率推至20世纪70年代和80年代的水平...</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f79bff1023630f5919adc5fbbad205fd\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"575\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>...</b>and the US economy is structured very differently today. Non-elite unions are politically toothless. Technology penetrates every industry. The offshoring of more services is coming.</p><p><blockquote><b>...</b>如今，美国经济的结构非常不同。非精英工会在政治上没有影响力。技术渗透每个行业。更多服务的离岸化即将到来。</blockquote></p><p><b>Excess demand</b></p><p><blockquote><b>需求过剩</b></blockquote></p><p>The last argument against persistent inflation is that there are also no signs of excess demand. The latest BofA consumer appears to affirm a “fiscal liquidity trap” thesis.</p><p><blockquote>反对持续通胀的最后一个论点是，也没有需求过剩的迹象。最新的美国银行消费者报告似乎证实了“财政流动性陷阱”的论点。</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>High-income households have excess savings, but history shows they don’t spend; and a chill in high-income spending is more likely in 2021 from the threat of higher taxes (Ricardian equivalence);</li><li>Low-income households received excess stimulus but their spending has already peaked (Exhibit 7) and &lt;10% of new rounds of stimulus are being spent (Exhibit 8).</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5df55809f076503eeb36dc7c238671c4\" tg-width=\"1203\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>高收入家庭有超额储蓄，但历史表明他们不消费；由于高税收的威胁（李嘉图等价），2021年高收入支出更有可能降温；</li><li>低收入家庭获得了过多的刺激，但他们的支出已经达到顶峰（图表7），新一轮刺激的支出不到10%（图表8）。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p>While we are confident that many readers will disagree, Woodard concludes that \"in sum, we expect high inflation levels to be transitory because structural deflationary forces are very strong, most supply shortages can be resolved, wage increases are modest (and helpful long-term in any case), and there is no evidence of excess demand.\"</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们相信许多读者会不同意，但伍德尔德的结论是，“总而言之，我们预计高通胀水平将是暂时的，因为结构性通缩力量非常强大，大多数供应短缺可以得到解决，工资增长温和（并且有助于长期增长）。在任何情况下），并且没有证据表明需求过剩。”</blockquote></p><p>Bullshit, you say. Between the trillions in stimulus and the monetary pump, this time is different.</p><p><blockquote>胡说，你说。在万亿刺激和货币泵之间，这一次是不同的。</blockquote></p><p>Perhaps, but there is another problem: anyone wishing to hedge against soaring inflation faces a daunting high cost (one could almost say \"inflationary\" cost).</p><p><blockquote>也许吧，但还有另一个问题：任何希望对冲飙升的通胀的人都面临着令人生畏的高成本（人们几乎可以说是“通胀”成本）。</blockquote></p><p>As shown in the chart below, historical data show that a permanent portfolio allocation to inflation assets only hurts returns (unlike a deflationary bias). Allocating $1 in 1974 equally to a basket of commodities, gold, global value, and European equities - i.e. inflationary assets -&nbsp; was worth $38 today; at the same time, an allocation to IG corporate bonds, Treasuries, US growth stocks, and the S&amp;P 500 was worth $104.</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，历史数据显示，对通胀资产的永久投资组合配置只会损害回报（与通缩偏见不同）。1974年将1美元平均分配给一篮子大宗商品、黄金、全球价值和欧洲股票——即通胀资产——今天价值38美元；与此同时，IG公司债券、国债、美国成长股和标普500的配置价值104美元。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e8b7135501c05cacea099ec1152a385\" tg-width=\"815\" tg-height=\"626\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Curiously, even a tactical allocation imposes a significant cost unless timed perfectly. BofA economists expect 3.6% average inflation for Q2. Over the last 30 years, there were five occasions when CPI surged above that level (May’01, Sept’05, June’06, Oct’07, June’11).</p><p><blockquote>奇怪的是，除非时机完美，否则即使是战术分配也会带来巨大的成本。美国银行经济学家预计第二季度平均通胀率为3.6%。在过去的30年里，CPI有五次飙升至该水平以上（2001年5月、2005年9月、2006年6月、2007年10月、2011年6月）。</blockquote></p><p>On average, investors who bought inflation assets on those triggers suffered losses over the next year: commodities -10%, value vs growth -2%, EU vs US equities -3% and cyclical vs defensives -1%. Only TIPS and small vs large saw positive average returns. And today, 10-year TIPS yield -0.93%, just 19bps from record lows.</p><p><blockquote>平均而言，在这些触发因素下购买通胀资产的投资者在下一年遭受了损失：大宗商品-10%，价值与成长-2%，欧盟与美国股票-3%，周期性与防御性-1%。只有TIPS和小型vs大型看到了正的平均回报。如今，10年期TIPS收益率为-0.93%，距离历史低点仅19个基点。</blockquote></p><p>In conclusion, Woodard writes that \"<b><i>the best time to buy inflation protection would be after the next “natural” recession, not when inflation expectations are already at 13-year highs.\"</i></b></p><p><blockquote>总之，伍德尔德写道“<b><i>购买通胀保护的最佳时机是在下一次‘自然’衰退之后，而不是在通胀预期已经处于13年高点的时候。”</i></b></blockquote></p><p>While that may true, one thing Woodard refuses to admit - or perhaps forgot to acknowledge - is that in a world where even the BIS admits it is in the business of manipulating gold lower, crypto has emerged as the best inflation hedge in the world. In that case, his entire argument about \"expensive\" inflation hedges can be thrown out, because one look at the return of bitcoin, ethereum, or the various DeFi tokens in the past year, and the conclusion is that the market is convinced that what is coming will make the Weimar and Zimbabwe hyperinflations seem like a walk in the park...</p><p><blockquote>虽然这可能是真的，但伍德沃德拒绝承认——或者可能忘记承认——的一件事是，在一个连国际清算银行都承认自己在操纵黄金走低的世界里，加密货币已经成为世界上最好的通胀对冲工具。在这种情况下，他关于“昂贵的”通胀对冲的整个论点可以被抛出，因为看看过去一年比特币、以太币或各种DeFi代币的回归，结论是市场确信即将到来的事情将使魏玛和辛巴威的恶性通胀看起来像是在公园散步...</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/three-places-where-permanently-higher-inflation-could-come\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/three-places-where-permanently-higher-inflation-could-come","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195374535","content_text":"Tomorrow we get a CPI number which according to consensus at least, will be historic: it will be the first 0.3% sequential increase in core (not the much higher headline) prices this century...... a talking point which will merely underscore therecent surge in inflation fears across both companies(who can pass these rising costs on to consumers)...... and consumers (who can't).Yet while households are growing more convinced with each passing day that higher prices will stick, with the NY Fed's latest survey of consumer expectations revealing that over the next year consumers anticipate gasoline prices jumping 9.18%, food prices gaining 5.79%, medical costs surging 9.13%, the price of a college education climbing 5.93%, and rent prices increasing 9.49%...... neither the Fed, nor sellside analysts are willing to concede as much yet. Take BofA's chief economist Michelle Meyer,who expects core PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred measure, to peak at 2.3% this quarter, before settling back down to 1.9% by the end of 2021.Meyer then expects prices to trend slightly higher over the medium term, eventually surpassing the Fed’s target consistently enough (and in an environment of full employment) that interest rate hikes will be warranted, possibly not until the second half 2023.Needless to say, the market disagrees, and especially the bond market, where traders are pricing in far more inflation and faster Fed hikes than that. But, as BofA's Jared Woodard notes, they often do, and are usually very early: as shown in the chart below, since 2007, rates implied by Fed funds futures have been, on average, 54bp higher than actual interest rates one year later.But maybe this time will be different? As Woodard counters, the challenge for those who expect permanently higher or harmful inflation is to explain where it will come from. In response, the BofA strategist says he can see three possible sources of \"permanent\" inflation, if no no plausible ones.1. Scarce goodsIn 2020, many firms cut capacity and reduced inventories, expecting a long recession. The faster rebound has meant shortages in lumber, corn, copper, etc. Some bottlenecks may lack quick fixes (e.g. semiconductors), but many others can be resolved.More importantly, whether necessitated by Covid or by the reorientation of supply chains toward reliable democracies, a period of higher capex should be tolerable. Many companies have proven pricing power, and in Q1, US corporate profit margins are at record highs.Scarce workersWoodard then predicts that there are also good reasons to think that any sharp surge in wages will end by Q4 for the following reasons:Labor supply is set to rise sharply.Generous unemployment insurance benefits expire in September,children will return to public schools,health concerns will be alleviated,firms will be able to hire from a broader pool of remote workers.Indeed, we have 9.8 million unemployed workers and BofA economists expect an additional 2mm+ returning to the labor force by the fall, by which point the Biden unemployment checks will have expired.Meanwhile, those widespread reports of employers offering hiring bonuses...... are a sign of a temporary mismatch, not an incipient spiral. \"A bonus is not a raise\", according to BofA... although it's a key part of one's compensation - we wonder how many BofA bankers would work without one.In any case, BofA believes that a higher long-term trend in wage growth would be positive for GDP and productivity: of the firms that said they will not raise capex in the latest Duke CFO survey, 2/3 said it is because they “have no need to expand capacity.” Persistent higher demand is necessary for sustained corporate investment. It’s, therefore, hard even to imagine a wage-spiral tail risk according to Woodard who argues thatit would take steady wage gains of 10-12% to push inflation to the levels of the 1970s & 80s......and the US economy is structured very differently today. Non-elite unions are politically toothless. Technology penetrates every industry. The offshoring of more services is coming.Excess demandThe last argument against persistent inflation is that there are also no signs of excess demand. The latest BofA consumer appears to affirm a “fiscal liquidity trap” thesis.High-income households have excess savings, but history shows they don’t spend; and a chill in high-income spending is more likely in 2021 from the threat of higher taxes (Ricardian equivalence);Low-income households received excess stimulus but their spending has already peaked (Exhibit 7) and <10% of new rounds of stimulus are being spent (Exhibit 8).While we are confident that many readers will disagree, Woodard concludes that \"in sum, we expect high inflation levels to be transitory because structural deflationary forces are very strong, most supply shortages can be resolved, wage increases are modest (and helpful long-term in any case), and there is no evidence of excess demand.\"Bullshit, you say. Between the trillions in stimulus and the monetary pump, this time is different.Perhaps, but there is another problem: anyone wishing to hedge against soaring inflation faces a daunting high cost (one could almost say \"inflationary\" cost).As shown in the chart below, historical data show that a permanent portfolio allocation to inflation assets only hurts returns (unlike a deflationary bias). Allocating $1 in 1974 equally to a basket of commodities, gold, global value, and European equities - i.e. inflationary assets -  was worth $38 today; at the same time, an allocation to IG corporate bonds, Treasuries, US growth stocks, and the S&P 500 was worth $104.Curiously, even a tactical allocation imposes a significant cost unless timed perfectly. BofA economists expect 3.6% average inflation for Q2. Over the last 30 years, there were five occasions when CPI surged above that level (May’01, Sept’05, June’06, Oct’07, June’11).On average, investors who bought inflation assets on those triggers suffered losses over the next year: commodities -10%, value vs growth -2%, EU vs US equities -3% and cyclical vs defensives -1%. Only TIPS and small vs large saw positive average returns. And today, 10-year TIPS yield -0.93%, just 19bps from record lows.In conclusion, Woodard writes that \"the best time to buy inflation protection would be after the next “natural” recession, not when inflation expectations are already at 13-year highs.\"While that may true, one thing Woodard refuses to admit - or perhaps forgot to acknowledge - is that in a world where even the BIS admits it is in the business of manipulating gold lower, crypto has emerged as the best inflation hedge in the world. In that case, his entire argument about \"expensive\" inflation hedges can be thrown out, because one look at the return of bitcoin, ethereum, or the various DeFi tokens in the past year, and the conclusion is that the market is convinced that what is coming will make the Weimar and Zimbabwe hyperinflations seem like a walk in the park...","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":260,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":184173613,"gmtCreate":1623693522432,"gmtModify":1631889813829,"author":{"id":"3582026584233746","authorId":"3582026584233746","name":"cookiemonstr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfdda60d9914bdbf35bd08fe9ee92d34","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582026584233746","idStr":"3582026584233746"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment :)","listText":"Like and comment :)","text":"Like 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pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/197310754","repostId":"1158638540","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158638540","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621409180,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1158638540?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-19 15:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"4 Things to Know Ahead of the Squarespace’s Direct Listing<blockquote>Squarespace直接上市前需要了解的4件事</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158638540","media":"Barrons","summary":"The pandemic prompted many small businesses to gain online storefronts for the first time, creating an e-commerce wave that helped website-creation platform Squarespace Inc. accelerate its revenue growth.Now Squarespace will test the resilience of that e-commerce momentum as a public company. Its shares are scheduled to begin trading Wednesday in a direct listing on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker SQSP.The company offers various tools for website creation, including domains, e-comme","content":"<p>The pandemic prompted many small businesses to gain online storefronts for the first time, creating an e-commerce wave that helped website-creation platform Squarespace Inc. accelerate its revenue growth.</p><p><blockquote>疫情促使许多小企业首次获得在线店面，掀起了一股电子商务浪潮，帮助网站创建平台Squarespace Inc.加速了收入增长。</blockquote></p><p> Now Squarespace will test the resilience of that e-commerce momentum as a public company. Its shares are scheduled to begin trading Wednesday in a direct listing on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker SQSP.</p><p><blockquote>现在，Squarespace将测试作为一家上市公司电子商务势头的弹性。其股票定于周三开始在纽约证券交易所直接上市交易，股票代码为SQSP。</blockquote></p><p> The company offers various tools for website creation, including domains, e-commerce functions and marketing capabilities. Squarespace aims to work with small businesses that have limited web expertise as well as “large brands” that need greater flexibility to customize based on their needs.</p><p><blockquote>该公司提供各种网站创建工具，包括域名、电子商务功能和营销能力。Squarespace旨在与网络专业知识有限的小型企业以及需要更大灵活性以根据其需求进行定制的“大品牌”合作。</blockquote></p><p> Squarespace sees itself playing into a number of trends, including a growing need for businesses to maintain direct relationships with their customers and an increased emphasis on do-it-yourself solutions that are “rapidly displacing expensive agencies and making equivalent design quality out-of-the-box, accessible and easy-to-use for all,” the company said in&nbsp;its filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.</p><p><blockquote>Squarespace认为自己正在顺应许多趋势，包括企业越来越需要与客户保持直接关系，以及越来越重视自己动手的解决方案，这些解决方案“正在迅速取代昂贵的代理机构，并使同等的设计质量脱颖而出。该公司在向美国证券交易委员会提交的文件中表示，“所有人都可以访问且易于使用”。</blockquote></p><p> The company raised $300 million in a March funding round that gave the company an enterprise valuation of $10 billion, and is not raising any new funding as it lists. Here is what else you need to know about the company.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在3月份的一轮融资中筹集了3亿美元，使该公司的企业估值达到100亿美元，并且在上市时没有筹集任何新的资金。以下是您需要了解的关于该公司的其他信息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Growing Revenue, Shrinking Profits</b></p><p><blockquote><b>收入增长，利润缩水</b></blockquote></p><p> Squarespace posted $621 million in revenue during 2020, up from $485 million a year earlier. Revenue was up 28% in the latest fiscal year, ahead of the 24% growth rate seen in the prior period.</p><p><blockquote>Squarespace 2020年收入为6.21亿美元，高于上年同期的4.85亿美元。最近一财年的收入增长了28%，高于上一季度24%的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> The company classifies 94% of its revenue as subscription-based. Squarespace added about 700,000 new unique subscriptions in 2020 and the company disclosed that more than two thirds of total subscriptions are annual.</p><p><blockquote>该公司将94%的收入归类为基于订阅的收入。Squarespace在2020年增加了约70万个新的独立订阅，该公司透露，超过三分之二的总订阅是年度订阅。</blockquote></p><p> About 70% of Squarespace’s revenue last year came from the U.S., while the rest was international.</p><p><blockquote>Squarespace去年约70%的收入来自美国，其余来自国际。</blockquote></p><p> Squarespace was profitable last year, recording about $30.6 million in net income, though profits were down from $58.2 million in 2019. The company’s “fundamentals highlight a rare combo of profitability and growth at scale,” wrote MKM Partners analyst Rohit Kulkarni.</p><p><blockquote>Squarespace去年实现盈利，净利润约为3060万美元，但利润低于2019年的5820万美元。MKM Partners分析师Rohit Kulkarni写道，该公司的“基本面凸显了盈利能力和大规模增长的罕见结合”。</blockquote></p><p> Despite a string of profitability on an annual basis, Squarespace generated a net loss of $10.1 million in the first quarter of 2021 compared with a loss of $1.1 million a year earlier. The company posted profits in each of the last three quarters of 2020.</p><p><blockquote>尽管每年都实现盈利，但Squarespace在2021年第一季度净亏损1010万美元，而去年同期亏损110万美元。该公司在2020年最后三个季度均实现盈利。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Competition Aplenty</b></p><p><blockquote><b>竞争激烈</b></blockquote></p><p> The company competes with a variety of different players across the e-commerce industry, according to its filing. Squarespace counts web-creation platforms like&nbsp;Wix.com&nbsp;(ticker: WIX) and Square’s (SQ) Weebly among its competition, along with e-commerce powerhouse&nbsp;Shopify&nbsp;(ticker: SHOP),&nbsp;which lets businesses set up online shops.</p><p><blockquote>根据其文件，该公司与电子商务行业的各种不同参与者竞争。Squarespace将Wix等网络创建平台视为其竞争对手。com（股票代码：WIX）和Square(SQ)Weebly，以及允许企业建立在线商店的电子商务巨头Shopify（股票代码：SHOP）。</blockquote></p><p> Squarespace also calls out competitors like GoDaddy (GDDY) that offer domain-name tools, as well as those providing email-marketing and scheduling functions, while arguing that its own “comprehensive, all-in-one platform, multichannel commerce capabilities” are an asset.</p><p><blockquote>Squarespace还评级了GoDaddy(GDDY)等提供域名工具以及提供电子邮件营销和日程安排功能的竞争对手，同时辩称其自己的“全面、一体化平台、多渠道商务能力”是一项资产。</blockquote></p><p> Jefferies analyst Brent Thill notes that Wix is larger than Squarespace, with revenue of $989 million last year versus $621 million for Squarespace. In addition, Squarespace’s revenue last year was similar to what Wix posted in 2018, but Wix was posting faster growth at that scale, and without the benefit of the pandemic-driven acceleration in e-commerce more broadly, he wrote.</p><p><blockquote>Jefferies分析师Brent Thill指出，Wix比Squarespace规模更大，去年的收入为9.89亿美元，而Squarespace的收入为6.21亿美元。此外，他写道，Squarespace去年的收入与Wix 2018年的收入相似，但Wix在这一规模上的增长更快，而且没有受益于大流行推动的更广泛的电子商务加速。</blockquote></p><p> <b>On the Menu</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在菜单上</b></blockquote></p><p> SquareSpace recently closed its $415 million acquisition of Tock, a company focused on the restaurant and hospitality industries. Tock’s services allow businesses to manage reservations, takeout, event ticketing and more.</p><p><blockquote>SquareSpace最近完成了对Tock的4.15亿美元收购，Tock是一家专注于餐饮和酒店行业的公司。Tock的服务允许企业管理预订、外卖、活动票务等。</blockquote></p><p> This part of the business may position SquareSpace against more tech giants, suggested MKM’s Kulkarni.</p><p><blockquote>MKM的库尔卡尼表示，这部分业务可能会使SquareSpace与更多科技巨头竞争。</blockquote></p><p> “SquareSpace’s offering with Tock faces competition from delivery services such as Uber Eats (UBER),DoorDash&nbsp;(DASH) and&nbsp;Grubhub&nbsp;(GRUB),&nbsp;along with other restaurant [customer-relationship management] services such as TouchBistro and Toast,” he wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“SquareSpace提供的Tock产品面临着来自Uber Eats(UBER)、DoorDash(DASH)和Grubhub(GRUB)等配送服务以及TouchBistro和Toast等其他餐厅[客户关系管理]服务的竞争，”他写道。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, the acquisition is an example of one way Squarespace has “smartly diversified into selling not just physical goods online but also adding calendar/scheduling capabilities (restaurant or gym reservations), content sales, and subscriptions,” he continued.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，此次收购是Squarespace“巧妙地多元化，不仅在线销售实物商品，还增加日历/日程安排功能（餐厅或健身房预订）、内容销售和订阅”的一个例子，他继续说道。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Marketing Bucks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>营销雄鹿</b></blockquote></p><p> Squarespace’s marketing and sales costs are growing far faster than its revenue. The company incurred $3.1 million in such expenses last year, up from $1.7 million in 2019, making for a 45% increase, whereas revenue was up 28% in the same span.</p><p><blockquote>Squarespace的营销和销售成本增长速度远远快于其收入增长速度。该公司去年的此类费用为310万美元，高于2019年的170万美元，增长了45%，而同期收入增长了28%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The company’s podcast advertisements may be familiar to frequent listeners, though Squarespace notes in its prospectus that it advertises its services broadly, using “online keyword search, sponsorships and celebrity endorsements, television, podcasts, print and online advertising, email and social media marketing.”</p><p><blockquote>该公司的播客广告可能为经常听众所熟悉，尽管Squarespace在其招股说明书中指出，它使用“在线关键字搜索、赞助和名人代言、电视、播客、印刷和在线广告、电子邮件和社交媒体营销”广泛宣传其服务。”</blockquote></p><p> Among its risk factors, Squarespace points to the possibility that Alphabet’s (GOOGL) Google could change its algorithm or raise the costs of its search-engine-marketing tools.</p><p><blockquote>在其风险因素中，Squarespace指出，Alphabet（GOOGL）的谷歌可能会改变其算法或提高其搜索引擎营销工具的成本。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>4 Things to Know Ahead of the Squarespace’s Direct Listing<blockquote>Squarespace直接上市前需要了解的4件事</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n4 Things to Know Ahead of the Squarespace’s Direct Listing<blockquote>Squarespace直接上市前需要了解的4件事</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-19 15:26</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The pandemic prompted many small businesses to gain online storefronts for the first time, creating an e-commerce wave that helped website-creation platform Squarespace Inc. accelerate its revenue growth.</p><p><blockquote>疫情促使许多小企业首次获得在线店面，掀起了一股电子商务浪潮，帮助网站创建平台Squarespace Inc.加速了收入增长。</blockquote></p><p> Now Squarespace will test the resilience of that e-commerce momentum as a public company. Its shares are scheduled to begin trading Wednesday in a direct listing on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker SQSP.</p><p><blockquote>现在，Squarespace将测试作为一家上市公司电子商务势头的弹性。其股票定于周三开始在纽约证券交易所直接上市交易，股票代码为SQSP。</blockquote></p><p> The company offers various tools for website creation, including domains, e-commerce functions and marketing capabilities. Squarespace aims to work with small businesses that have limited web expertise as well as “large brands” that need greater flexibility to customize based on their needs.</p><p><blockquote>该公司提供各种网站创建工具，包括域名、电子商务功能和营销能力。Squarespace旨在与网络专业知识有限的小型企业以及需要更大灵活性以根据其需求进行定制的“大品牌”合作。</blockquote></p><p> Squarespace sees itself playing into a number of trends, including a growing need for businesses to maintain direct relationships with their customers and an increased emphasis on do-it-yourself solutions that are “rapidly displacing expensive agencies and making equivalent design quality out-of-the-box, accessible and easy-to-use for all,” the company said in&nbsp;its filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.</p><p><blockquote>Squarespace认为自己正在顺应许多趋势，包括企业越来越需要与客户保持直接关系，以及越来越重视自己动手的解决方案，这些解决方案“正在迅速取代昂贵的代理机构，并使同等的设计质量脱颖而出。该公司在向美国证券交易委员会提交的文件中表示，“所有人都可以访问且易于使用”。</blockquote></p><p> The company raised $300 million in a March funding round that gave the company an enterprise valuation of $10 billion, and is not raising any new funding as it lists. Here is what else you need to know about the company.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在3月份的一轮融资中筹集了3亿美元，使该公司的企业估值达到100亿美元，并且在上市时没有筹集任何新的资金。以下是您需要了解的关于该公司的其他信息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Growing Revenue, Shrinking Profits</b></p><p><blockquote><b>收入增长，利润缩水</b></blockquote></p><p> Squarespace posted $621 million in revenue during 2020, up from $485 million a year earlier. Revenue was up 28% in the latest fiscal year, ahead of the 24% growth rate seen in the prior period.</p><p><blockquote>Squarespace 2020年收入为6.21亿美元，高于上年同期的4.85亿美元。最近一财年的收入增长了28%，高于上一季度24%的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> The company classifies 94% of its revenue as subscription-based. Squarespace added about 700,000 new unique subscriptions in 2020 and the company disclosed that more than two thirds of total subscriptions are annual.</p><p><blockquote>该公司将94%的收入归类为基于订阅的收入。Squarespace在2020年增加了约70万个新的独立订阅，该公司透露，超过三分之二的总订阅是年度订阅。</blockquote></p><p> About 70% of Squarespace’s revenue last year came from the U.S., while the rest was international.</p><p><blockquote>Squarespace去年约70%的收入来自美国，其余来自国际。</blockquote></p><p> Squarespace was profitable last year, recording about $30.6 million in net income, though profits were down from $58.2 million in 2019. The company’s “fundamentals highlight a rare combo of profitability and growth at scale,” wrote MKM Partners analyst Rohit Kulkarni.</p><p><blockquote>Squarespace去年实现盈利，净利润约为3060万美元，但利润低于2019年的5820万美元。MKM Partners分析师Rohit Kulkarni写道，该公司的“基本面凸显了盈利能力和大规模增长的罕见结合”。</blockquote></p><p> Despite a string of profitability on an annual basis, Squarespace generated a net loss of $10.1 million in the first quarter of 2021 compared with a loss of $1.1 million a year earlier. The company posted profits in each of the last three quarters of 2020.</p><p><blockquote>尽管每年都实现盈利，但Squarespace在2021年第一季度净亏损1010万美元，而去年同期亏损110万美元。该公司在2020年最后三个季度均实现盈利。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Competition Aplenty</b></p><p><blockquote><b>竞争激烈</b></blockquote></p><p> The company competes with a variety of different players across the e-commerce industry, according to its filing. Squarespace counts web-creation platforms like&nbsp;Wix.com&nbsp;(ticker: WIX) and Square’s (SQ) Weebly among its competition, along with e-commerce powerhouse&nbsp;Shopify&nbsp;(ticker: SHOP),&nbsp;which lets businesses set up online shops.</p><p><blockquote>根据其文件，该公司与电子商务行业的各种不同参与者竞争。Squarespace将Wix等网络创建平台视为其竞争对手。com（股票代码：WIX）和Square(SQ)Weebly，以及允许企业建立在线商店的电子商务巨头Shopify（股票代码：SHOP）。</blockquote></p><p> Squarespace also calls out competitors like GoDaddy (GDDY) that offer domain-name tools, as well as those providing email-marketing and scheduling functions, while arguing that its own “comprehensive, all-in-one platform, multichannel commerce capabilities” are an asset.</p><p><blockquote>Squarespace还评级了GoDaddy(GDDY)等提供域名工具以及提供电子邮件营销和日程安排功能的竞争对手，同时辩称其自己的“全面、一体化平台、多渠道商务能力”是一项资产。</blockquote></p><p> Jefferies analyst Brent Thill notes that Wix is larger than Squarespace, with revenue of $989 million last year versus $621 million for Squarespace. In addition, Squarespace’s revenue last year was similar to what Wix posted in 2018, but Wix was posting faster growth at that scale, and without the benefit of the pandemic-driven acceleration in e-commerce more broadly, he wrote.</p><p><blockquote>Jefferies分析师Brent Thill指出，Wix比Squarespace规模更大，去年的收入为9.89亿美元，而Squarespace的收入为6.21亿美元。此外，他写道，Squarespace去年的收入与Wix 2018年的收入相似，但Wix在这一规模上的增长更快，而且没有受益于大流行推动的更广泛的电子商务加速。</blockquote></p><p> <b>On the Menu</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在菜单上</b></blockquote></p><p> SquareSpace recently closed its $415 million acquisition of Tock, a company focused on the restaurant and hospitality industries. Tock’s services allow businesses to manage reservations, takeout, event ticketing and more.</p><p><blockquote>SquareSpace最近完成了对Tock的4.15亿美元收购，Tock是一家专注于餐饮和酒店行业的公司。Tock的服务允许企业管理预订、外卖、活动票务等。</blockquote></p><p> This part of the business may position SquareSpace against more tech giants, suggested MKM’s Kulkarni.</p><p><blockquote>MKM的库尔卡尼表示，这部分业务可能会使SquareSpace与更多科技巨头竞争。</blockquote></p><p> “SquareSpace’s offering with Tock faces competition from delivery services such as Uber Eats (UBER),DoorDash&nbsp;(DASH) and&nbsp;Grubhub&nbsp;(GRUB),&nbsp;along with other restaurant [customer-relationship management] services such as TouchBistro and Toast,” he wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“SquareSpace提供的Tock产品面临着来自Uber Eats(UBER)、DoorDash(DASH)和Grubhub(GRUB)等配送服务以及TouchBistro和Toast等其他餐厅[客户关系管理]服务的竞争，”他写道。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, the acquisition is an example of one way Squarespace has “smartly diversified into selling not just physical goods online but also adding calendar/scheduling capabilities (restaurant or gym reservations), content sales, and subscriptions,” he continued.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，此次收购是Squarespace“巧妙地多元化，不仅在线销售实物商品，还增加日历/日程安排功能（餐厅或健身房预订）、内容销售和订阅”的一个例子，他继续说道。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Marketing Bucks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>营销雄鹿</b></blockquote></p><p> Squarespace’s marketing and sales costs are growing far faster than its revenue. The company incurred $3.1 million in such expenses last year, up from $1.7 million in 2019, making for a 45% increase, whereas revenue was up 28% in the same span.</p><p><blockquote>Squarespace的营销和销售成本增长速度远远快于其收入增长速度。该公司去年的此类费用为310万美元，高于2019年的170万美元，增长了45%，而同期收入增长了28%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The company’s podcast advertisements may be familiar to frequent listeners, though Squarespace notes in its prospectus that it advertises its services broadly, using “online keyword search, sponsorships and celebrity endorsements, television, podcasts, print and online advertising, email and social media marketing.”</p><p><blockquote>该公司的播客广告可能为经常听众所熟悉，尽管Squarespace在其招股说明书中指出，它使用“在线关键字搜索、赞助和名人代言、电视、播客、印刷和在线广告、电子邮件和社交媒体营销”广泛宣传其服务。”</blockquote></p><p> Among its risk factors, Squarespace points to the possibility that Alphabet’s (GOOGL) Google could change its algorithm or raise the costs of its search-engine-marketing tools.</p><p><blockquote>在其风险因素中，Squarespace指出，Alphabet（GOOGL）的谷歌可能会改变其算法或提高其搜索引擎营销工具的成本。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/squarespace-direct-listing-51621376597?mod=hp_LEAD_3\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SQSP":"Squarespace Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/squarespace-direct-listing-51621376597?mod=hp_LEAD_3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158638540","content_text":"The pandemic prompted many small businesses to gain online storefronts for the first time, creating an e-commerce wave that helped website-creation platform Squarespace Inc. accelerate its revenue growth.\nNow Squarespace will test the resilience of that e-commerce momentum as a public company. Its shares are scheduled to begin trading Wednesday in a direct listing on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker SQSP.\nThe company offers various tools for website creation, including domains, e-commerce functions and marketing capabilities. Squarespace aims to work with small businesses that have limited web expertise as well as “large brands” that need greater flexibility to customize based on their needs.\nSquarespace sees itself playing into a number of trends, including a growing need for businesses to maintain direct relationships with their customers and an increased emphasis on do-it-yourself solutions that are “rapidly displacing expensive agencies and making equivalent design quality out-of-the-box, accessible and easy-to-use for all,” the company said in its filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.\nThe company raised $300 million in a March funding round that gave the company an enterprise valuation of $10 billion, and is not raising any new funding as it lists. Here is what else you need to know about the company.\nGrowing Revenue, Shrinking Profits\nSquarespace posted $621 million in revenue during 2020, up from $485 million a year earlier. Revenue was up 28% in the latest fiscal year, ahead of the 24% growth rate seen in the prior period.\nThe company classifies 94% of its revenue as subscription-based. Squarespace added about 700,000 new unique subscriptions in 2020 and the company disclosed that more than two thirds of total subscriptions are annual.\nAbout 70% of Squarespace’s revenue last year came from the U.S., while the rest was international.\nSquarespace was profitable last year, recording about $30.6 million in net income, though profits were down from $58.2 million in 2019. The company’s “fundamentals highlight a rare combo of profitability and growth at scale,” wrote MKM Partners analyst Rohit Kulkarni.\nDespite a string of profitability on an annual basis, Squarespace generated a net loss of $10.1 million in the first quarter of 2021 compared with a loss of $1.1 million a year earlier. The company posted profits in each of the last three quarters of 2020.\nCompetition Aplenty\nThe company competes with a variety of different players across the e-commerce industry, according to its filing. Squarespace counts web-creation platforms like Wix.com (ticker: WIX) and Square’s (SQ) Weebly among its competition, along with e-commerce powerhouse Shopify (ticker: SHOP), which lets businesses set up online shops.\nSquarespace also calls out competitors like GoDaddy (GDDY) that offer domain-name tools, as well as those providing email-marketing and scheduling functions, while arguing that its own “comprehensive, all-in-one platform, multichannel commerce capabilities” are an asset.\nJefferies analyst Brent Thill notes that Wix is larger than Squarespace, with revenue of $989 million last year versus $621 million for Squarespace. In addition, Squarespace’s revenue last year was similar to what Wix posted in 2018, but Wix was posting faster growth at that scale, and without the benefit of the pandemic-driven acceleration in e-commerce more broadly, he wrote.\nOn the Menu\nSquareSpace recently closed its $415 million acquisition of Tock, a company focused on the restaurant and hospitality industries. Tock’s services allow businesses to manage reservations, takeout, event ticketing and more.\nThis part of the business may position SquareSpace against more tech giants, suggested MKM’s Kulkarni.\n“SquareSpace’s offering with Tock faces competition from delivery services such as Uber Eats (UBER),DoorDash (DASH) and Grubhub (GRUB), along with other restaurant [customer-relationship management] services such as TouchBistro and Toast,” he wrote.\nAt the same time, the acquisition is an example of one way Squarespace has “smartly diversified into selling not just physical goods online but also adding calendar/scheduling capabilities (restaurant or gym reservations), content sales, and subscriptions,” he continued.\nMarketing Bucks\nSquarespace’s marketing and sales costs are growing far faster than its revenue. The company incurred $3.1 million in such expenses last year, up from $1.7 million in 2019, making for a 45% increase, whereas revenue was up 28% in the same span.\nThe company’s podcast advertisements may be familiar to frequent listeners, though Squarespace notes in its prospectus that it advertises its services broadly, using “online keyword search, sponsorships and celebrity endorsements, television, podcasts, print and online advertising, email and social media marketing.”\nAmong its risk factors, Squarespace points to the possibility that Alphabet’s (GOOGL) Google could change its algorithm or raise the costs of its search-engine-marketing tools.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SQSP":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":317,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":107651863,"gmtCreate":1620485123352,"gmtModify":1634198454504,"author":{"id":"3582026584233746","authorId":"3582026584233746","name":"cookiemonstr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfdda60d9914bdbf35bd08fe9ee92d34","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582026584233746","idStr":"3582026584233746"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"To the moon ◡̈&nbsp;","listText":"To the moon ◡̈&nbsp;","text":"To the moon ◡̈","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/107651863","repostId":"1160802774","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1160802774","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620442206,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1160802774?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-08 10:50","market":"other","language":"en","title":"Dogecoin price’s ‘make-or-break’ moment looms with Elon Musk set to host ‘Saturday Night Live’<blockquote>埃隆·马斯克将主持“周六夜现场”，狗狗币价格的“成败”时刻迫在眉睫</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160802774","media":"Marketwatch","summary":"Nikki Beesetti started investing in crypto back in 2017 and paid off her final semester at Purdue Un","content":"<p>Nikki Beesetti started investing in crypto back in 2017 and paid off her final semester at Purdue University with proceeds from the sale of a single bitcoin that she bought on a whim, which had surged to nearly $20,000.</p><p><blockquote>Nikki Beesetti早在2017年就开始投资加密货币，并用出售她心血来潮购买的一枚比特币的收益支付了她在普渡大学的最后一个学期的费用，该收益已飙升至近2万美元。</blockquote></p><p>Now, the product manager for a startup in New York is dabbling in dogecoin&nbsp;,and sees this weekend as a possible make-or-break moment for the parody coin that has seen a stratospheric, nearly 13,000% rise in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>现在，纽约一家初创公司的产品经理正在涉足狗狗币，并认为本周末可能是这种模仿硬币的成败时刻，这种模仿硬币在2021年上涨了近13,000%。</blockquote></p><p>“This Saturday is going to be a total make-or-break for dogecoin,” Beesetti told MarketWatch in a phone interview.</p><p><blockquote>Beesetti在接受MarketWatch电话采访时表示：“本周六将是狗狗币成败的关键。”</blockquote></p><p>“If he can really get the messaging right, dogecoin can really take off…or it’s going to crash to wherever it’s going to crash to,” she said.</p><p><blockquote>“如果他真的能传达正确的信息，狗狗币就能真正起飞……否则它就会崩溃到任何它要崩溃的地方，”她说。</blockquote></p><p>The 25-year-old investor is one of a number of relatively young traders who are piling into speculative altcoins like dogecoin as the so-called joke asset mints millionaires and draws some concerns about a bubble forming in the nascent crypto complex.</p><p><blockquote>这位25岁的投资者是众多相对年轻的交易员之一，他们涌入狗狗币等投机性山寨币，因为这种所谓的笑话资产造就了百万富翁，并引起了一些人对新兴加密货币综合体中正在形成泡沫的担忧。</blockquote></p><p>Musk will host NBC’s late-night live television comedy sketch show, “Saturday Night Live,” this weekend and his coming appearance has already drawn&nbsp;cheers and jeers.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克将于本周末主持NBC深夜直播电视喜剧小品节目“周六夜现场”，他即将到来的亮相已经引起了欢呼和嘲笑。</blockquote></p><p>Musk has been one of the biggest cheerleaders for dogecoin and crypto broadly. The self-appointed “Technoking” of Tesla&nbsp;has been mostly using his massive social media following to pump up the price of doge,&nbsp;tweeting back on April 1&nbsp;that he would use his SpaceX rockets to put a physical Doge coin on the literal moon, echoing the social media goal of taking the coin’s price “to the moon.”</p><p><blockquote>马斯克一直是狗狗币和加密货币最大的支持者之一。这位自封的特斯拉“技术之王”主要利用其庞大的社交媒体粉丝来抬高doge的价格，他于4月1日在推特上表示，他将使用SpaceX火箭将实体doge硬币放在真正的月球上，呼应了社交媒体将硬币价格“带到月球”的目标。</blockquote></p><p>Beesetti said that she first got involved in dogecoin — she also invests in technology stocks and exchange-traded funds — at the prompting of Musk’s social-media missives from last summer.</p><p><blockquote>比塞蒂表示，她第一次涉足狗狗币是在马斯克去年夏天社交媒体信件的推动下，她还投资科技股和交易所交易基金。</blockquote></p><p>She bought dogecoin when it was trading at 3/10ths of a penny and she kept dollar-cost averaging her position in the digital asset created in 2013 even as it hit around 1 cent last August.</p><p><blockquote>她在狗狗币的交易价格为3/10美分时买入了它，尽管去年8月它达到了1美分左右，但她仍保持了她在2013年创建的数字资产中的美元成本平均头寸。</blockquote></p><p>Musk has become a rallying point for dogecoin holders on sites like Reddit and his coming appearance on “SNL” is a hotly anticipated moment inside and outside crypto markets, which had largely been centered on bitcoin&nbsp;and Ethereum&nbsp;,the two largest cryptos in the world.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克已成为Reddit等网站上狗狗币持有者的聚集点，他即将在“SNL”上亮相是加密货币市场内外备受期待的时刻，该市场主要集中在比特币和以太币这两个世界上最大的加密货币。</blockquote></p><p>Dogecoin has long held the reputation as a joke currency in the digital-asset realm but it is hard to deny that its surging value has gripped Main Street and Wall Street’s attention — at least momentarily.</p><p><blockquote>狗狗币长期以来在数字资产领域一直享有笑话货币的美誉，但很难否认其飙升的价值引起了大街和华尔街的关注——至少暂时如此。</blockquote></p><p>Former “SNL” cast member and comedian David Spade on Thursday tweeted that he wondered if Musk’s appearance on the sketch show would equate to a 90-minute infomercial for doge, adding, perhaps tongue in cheek that he was buying dogecoin.</p><p><blockquote>前《SNL》演员兼喜剧演员大卫·斯派德(David Spade)周四在推特上表示，他想知道马斯克出现在小品节目中是否相当于为doge制作了一部90分钟的电视广告，并补充说，也许是开玩笑地说，他正在购买狗狗币。</blockquote></p><p>Oddsmakers at betting platformSportsBettingDime.com&nbsp;have established a number of prop bets about Musk’s appearance on “Saturday Night Live,” including which if any crypto he mentions first on the show.</p><p><blockquote>博彩平台SportsBettingDime.com的赔率制定了许多关于马斯克出现在《周六夜现场》上的适当赌注，包括他在节目中首先提到的任何加密货币。</blockquote></p><p>Which cryptocurrency does Musk mention first:</p><p><blockquote>马斯克首先提到的是哪种加密货币：</blockquote></p><p>1. Bitcoin: -200</p><p><blockquote>1.比特币：-200</blockquote></p><p>2. Dogecoin: +600</p><p><blockquote>2.狗狗币：+600</blockquote></p><p>3. FIELD: +450</p><p><blockquote>3.字段：+450</blockquote></p><p>4. Does Not Mention Bitcoin: +400</p><p><blockquote>4.没有提到比特币：+400</blockquote></p><p>Beesetti said that she sold about $8,000 worth of dogecoin recently to buy a pair of Gucci shoes, an iPhone and upped her position in Ether thar runs on the Ethereum protocol but has otherwise been a steady holder of doge.</p><p><blockquote>Beesetti表示，她最近出售了价值约8,000美元的狗狗币，购买了一双Gucci鞋、一部iPhone，并根据以太币协议提高了她在以太thar的头寸，但在其他方面一直是doge的稳定持有者。</blockquote></p><p>The investor wouldn’t offer specific figures but said that her holdings currently range from 50,000 to 100,000 dogecoin.</p><p><blockquote>该投资者不愿提供具体数字，但表示她目前持有的狗狗币在50,000至100,000枚之间。</blockquote></p><p>Perhaps unlike some investors in doge, she is under no illusion that it has utility but submits to the possibility that momentum could build in a parody asset to such an extent that it forges its own legitimacy.</p><p><blockquote>也许与doge的一些投资者不同，她并不对它具有实用性抱有幻想，而是接受了这样一种可能性：势头可能会在模仿资产中积累到一定程度，从而锻造自己的合法性。</blockquote></p><p>“Doge doesn’t have intrinsic value,” Beesetti said. “The value becomes real if you and a collective group of people believe in it. And in this case, there are more groups and people than before who believe.”</p><p><blockquote>“Doge没有内在价值，”比塞蒂说。“如果你和一群人相信它，价值就会变得真实。在这种情况下，相信它的群体和人比以前更多。”</blockquote></p><p>That said, reality could hit meme coin holders hard come Sunday morning, at least one analyst said.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，至少一位分析师表示，现实可能会在周日早上对模因币持有者造成沉重打击。</blockquote></p><p>“Post-SNL, some crypto traders could abandon short-term&nbsp;Dogecoin&nbsp;bets once it becomes clear that it is not skyrocketing to the moon or at the heavily eyed $1 level,” wrote Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda, in a research note.</p><p><blockquote>Oanda高级市场分析师爱德华·莫亚(Edward Moya)在一份研究报告中写道：“SNL之后，一旦狗狗币明显不会飙升至月球或达到备受关注的1美元水平，一些加密货币交易员可能会放弃短期狗狗币押注。”笔记。</blockquote></p><p>The analyst also notes that strong conviction of dogecoin investors,known as hodlers in the crypto world, could defy logic and keep prices buoyant.</p><p><blockquote>这位分析师还指出，狗狗币投资者（在加密货币界被称为霍德勒）的坚定信念可能会违背逻辑并保持价格上涨。</blockquote></p><p>“The retail-army of traders that have been committed to Doge might remain stubbornly hodlers, so we shouldn’t be surprised if a sell the event reaction does not happen,” the Oanda strategist said.</p><p><blockquote>这位Oanda策略师表示：“一直致力于Doge的散户交易员可能仍然是顽固的霍德勒，因此如果没有发生卖出事件反应，我们不应该感到惊讶。”</blockquote></p><p>How it all plays out for dogecoin is anyone’s guess.</p><p><blockquote>狗狗币的结局如何，谁也说不准。</blockquote></p><p>“It’s just a meme currency but sometimes the most entertaining outcome becomes the reality,” Beesetti said.</p><p><blockquote>“这只是一种模因货币，但有时最有趣的结果会成为现实，”比塞蒂说。</blockquote></p><p>That meme currency has enjoyed a spectacular ride compared against most other assets. Gold futures&nbsp;are down 3% so far this year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;and the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;are up by nearly 13% in 2021, while the Nasdaq Composite Index&nbsp;has gained about over 6% so far this year.</p><p><blockquote>与大多数其他资产相比，这种模因货币经历了惊人的上涨。今年迄今为止，黄金期货下跌了3%，道琼斯工业平均指数和标普500指数在2021年上涨了近13%，而纳斯达克综合指数今年迄今为止的涨幅约超过6%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dogecoin price’s ‘make-or-break’ moment looms with Elon Musk set to host ‘Saturday Night Live’<blockquote>埃隆·马斯克将主持“周六夜现场”，狗狗币价格的“成败”时刻迫在眉睫</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDogecoin price’s ‘make-or-break’ moment looms with Elon Musk set to host ‘Saturday Night Live’<blockquote>埃隆·马斯克将主持“周六夜现场”，狗狗币价格的“成败”时刻迫在眉睫</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Marketwatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-08 10:50</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Nikki Beesetti started investing in crypto back in 2017 and paid off her final semester at Purdue University with proceeds from the sale of a single bitcoin that she bought on a whim, which had surged to nearly $20,000.</p><p><blockquote>Nikki Beesetti早在2017年就开始投资加密货币，并用出售她心血来潮购买的一枚比特币的收益支付了她在普渡大学的最后一个学期的费用，该收益已飙升至近2万美元。</blockquote></p><p>Now, the product manager for a startup in New York is dabbling in dogecoin&nbsp;,and sees this weekend as a possible make-or-break moment for the parody coin that has seen a stratospheric, nearly 13,000% rise in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>现在，纽约一家初创公司的产品经理正在涉足狗狗币，并认为本周末可能是这种模仿硬币的成败时刻，这种模仿硬币在2021年上涨了近13,000%。</blockquote></p><p>“This Saturday is going to be a total make-or-break for dogecoin,” Beesetti told MarketWatch in a phone interview.</p><p><blockquote>Beesetti在接受MarketWatch电话采访时表示：“本周六将是狗狗币成败的关键。”</blockquote></p><p>“If he can really get the messaging right, dogecoin can really take off…or it’s going to crash to wherever it’s going to crash to,” she said.</p><p><blockquote>“如果他真的能传达正确的信息，狗狗币就能真正起飞……否则它就会崩溃到任何它要崩溃的地方，”她说。</blockquote></p><p>The 25-year-old investor is one of a number of relatively young traders who are piling into speculative altcoins like dogecoin as the so-called joke asset mints millionaires and draws some concerns about a bubble forming in the nascent crypto complex.</p><p><blockquote>这位25岁的投资者是众多相对年轻的交易员之一，他们涌入狗狗币等投机性山寨币，因为这种所谓的笑话资产造就了百万富翁，并引起了一些人对新兴加密货币综合体中正在形成泡沫的担忧。</blockquote></p><p>Musk will host NBC’s late-night live television comedy sketch show, “Saturday Night Live,” this weekend and his coming appearance has already drawn&nbsp;cheers and jeers.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克将于本周末主持NBC深夜直播电视喜剧小品节目“周六夜现场”，他即将到来的亮相已经引起了欢呼和嘲笑。</blockquote></p><p>Musk has been one of the biggest cheerleaders for dogecoin and crypto broadly. The self-appointed “Technoking” of Tesla&nbsp;has been mostly using his massive social media following to pump up the price of doge,&nbsp;tweeting back on April 1&nbsp;that he would use his SpaceX rockets to put a physical Doge coin on the literal moon, echoing the social media goal of taking the coin’s price “to the moon.”</p><p><blockquote>马斯克一直是狗狗币和加密货币最大的支持者之一。这位自封的特斯拉“技术之王”主要利用其庞大的社交媒体粉丝来抬高doge的价格，他于4月1日在推特上表示，他将使用SpaceX火箭将实体doge硬币放在真正的月球上，呼应了社交媒体将硬币价格“带到月球”的目标。</blockquote></p><p>Beesetti said that she first got involved in dogecoin — she also invests in technology stocks and exchange-traded funds — at the prompting of Musk’s social-media missives from last summer.</p><p><blockquote>比塞蒂表示，她第一次涉足狗狗币是在马斯克去年夏天社交媒体信件的推动下，她还投资科技股和交易所交易基金。</blockquote></p><p>She bought dogecoin when it was trading at 3/10ths of a penny and she kept dollar-cost averaging her position in the digital asset created in 2013 even as it hit around 1 cent last August.</p><p><blockquote>她在狗狗币的交易价格为3/10美分时买入了它，尽管去年8月它达到了1美分左右，但她仍保持了她在2013年创建的数字资产中的美元成本平均头寸。</blockquote></p><p>Musk has become a rallying point for dogecoin holders on sites like Reddit and his coming appearance on “SNL” is a hotly anticipated moment inside and outside crypto markets, which had largely been centered on bitcoin&nbsp;and Ethereum&nbsp;,the two largest cryptos in the world.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克已成为Reddit等网站上狗狗币持有者的聚集点，他即将在“SNL”上亮相是加密货币市场内外备受期待的时刻，该市场主要集中在比特币和以太币这两个世界上最大的加密货币。</blockquote></p><p>Dogecoin has long held the reputation as a joke currency in the digital-asset realm but it is hard to deny that its surging value has gripped Main Street and Wall Street’s attention — at least momentarily.</p><p><blockquote>狗狗币长期以来在数字资产领域一直享有笑话货币的美誉，但很难否认其飙升的价值引起了大街和华尔街的关注——至少暂时如此。</blockquote></p><p>Former “SNL” cast member and comedian David Spade on Thursday tweeted that he wondered if Musk’s appearance on the sketch show would equate to a 90-minute infomercial for doge, adding, perhaps tongue in cheek that he was buying dogecoin.</p><p><blockquote>前《SNL》演员兼喜剧演员大卫·斯派德(David Spade)周四在推特上表示，他想知道马斯克出现在小品节目中是否相当于为doge制作了一部90分钟的电视广告，并补充说，也许是开玩笑地说，他正在购买狗狗币。</blockquote></p><p>Oddsmakers at betting platformSportsBettingDime.com&nbsp;have established a number of prop bets about Musk’s appearance on “Saturday Night Live,” including which if any crypto he mentions first on the show.</p><p><blockquote>博彩平台SportsBettingDime.com的赔率制定了许多关于马斯克出现在《周六夜现场》上的适当赌注，包括他在节目中首先提到的任何加密货币。</blockquote></p><p>Which cryptocurrency does Musk mention first:</p><p><blockquote>马斯克首先提到的是哪种加密货币：</blockquote></p><p>1. Bitcoin: -200</p><p><blockquote>1.比特币：-200</blockquote></p><p>2. Dogecoin: +600</p><p><blockquote>2.狗狗币：+600</blockquote></p><p>3. FIELD: +450</p><p><blockquote>3.字段：+450</blockquote></p><p>4. Does Not Mention Bitcoin: +400</p><p><blockquote>4.没有提到比特币：+400</blockquote></p><p>Beesetti said that she sold about $8,000 worth of dogecoin recently to buy a pair of Gucci shoes, an iPhone and upped her position in Ether thar runs on the Ethereum protocol but has otherwise been a steady holder of doge.</p><p><blockquote>Beesetti表示，她最近出售了价值约8,000美元的狗狗币，购买了一双Gucci鞋、一部iPhone，并根据以太币协议提高了她在以太thar的头寸，但在其他方面一直是doge的稳定持有者。</blockquote></p><p>The investor wouldn’t offer specific figures but said that her holdings currently range from 50,000 to 100,000 dogecoin.</p><p><blockquote>该投资者不愿提供具体数字，但表示她目前持有的狗狗币在50,000至100,000枚之间。</blockquote></p><p>Perhaps unlike some investors in doge, she is under no illusion that it has utility but submits to the possibility that momentum could build in a parody asset to such an extent that it forges its own legitimacy.</p><p><blockquote>也许与doge的一些投资者不同，她并不对它具有实用性抱有幻想，而是接受了这样一种可能性：势头可能会在模仿资产中积累到一定程度，从而锻造自己的合法性。</blockquote></p><p>“Doge doesn’t have intrinsic value,” Beesetti said. “The value becomes real if you and a collective group of people believe in it. And in this case, there are more groups and people than before who believe.”</p><p><blockquote>“Doge没有内在价值，”比塞蒂说。“如果你和一群人相信它，价值就会变得真实。在这种情况下，相信它的群体和人比以前更多。”</blockquote></p><p>That said, reality could hit meme coin holders hard come Sunday morning, at least one analyst said.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，至少一位分析师表示，现实可能会在周日早上对模因币持有者造成沉重打击。</blockquote></p><p>“Post-SNL, some crypto traders could abandon short-term&nbsp;Dogecoin&nbsp;bets once it becomes clear that it is not skyrocketing to the moon or at the heavily eyed $1 level,” wrote Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda, in a research note.</p><p><blockquote>Oanda高级市场分析师爱德华·莫亚(Edward Moya)在一份研究报告中写道：“SNL之后，一旦狗狗币明显不会飙升至月球或达到备受关注的1美元水平，一些加密货币交易员可能会放弃短期狗狗币押注。”笔记。</blockquote></p><p>The analyst also notes that strong conviction of dogecoin investors,known as hodlers in the crypto world, could defy logic and keep prices buoyant.</p><p><blockquote>这位分析师还指出，狗狗币投资者（在加密货币界被称为霍德勒）的坚定信念可能会违背逻辑并保持价格上涨。</blockquote></p><p>“The retail-army of traders that have been committed to Doge might remain stubbornly hodlers, so we shouldn’t be surprised if a sell the event reaction does not happen,” the Oanda strategist said.</p><p><blockquote>这位Oanda策略师表示：“一直致力于Doge的散户交易员可能仍然是顽固的霍德勒，因此如果没有发生卖出事件反应，我们不应该感到惊讶。”</blockquote></p><p>How it all plays out for dogecoin is anyone’s guess.</p><p><blockquote>狗狗币的结局如何，谁也说不准。</blockquote></p><p>“It’s just a meme currency but sometimes the most entertaining outcome becomes the reality,” Beesetti said.</p><p><blockquote>“这只是一种模因货币，但有时最有趣的结果会成为现实，”比塞蒂说。</blockquote></p><p>That meme currency has enjoyed a spectacular ride compared against most other assets. Gold futures&nbsp;are down 3% so far this year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;and the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;are up by nearly 13% in 2021, while the Nasdaq Composite Index&nbsp;has gained about over 6% so far this year.</p><p><blockquote>与大多数其他资产相比，这种模因货币经历了惊人的上涨。今年迄今为止，黄金期货下跌了3%，道琼斯工业平均指数和标普500指数在2021年上涨了近13%，而纳斯达克综合指数今年迄今为止的涨幅约超过6%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-total-make-or-break-for-dogecoin-says-one-crypto-investor-as-elon-musk-prepares-to-host-saturday-night-live-11620413674?mod=associated-press\">Marketwatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-total-make-or-break-for-dogecoin-says-one-crypto-investor-as-elon-musk-prepares-to-host-saturday-night-live-11620413674?mod=associated-press","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160802774","content_text":"Nikki Beesetti started investing in crypto back in 2017 and paid off her final semester at Purdue University with proceeds from the sale of a single bitcoin that she bought on a whim, which had surged to nearly $20,000.Now, the product manager for a startup in New York is dabbling in dogecoin ,and sees this weekend as a possible make-or-break moment for the parody coin that has seen a stratospheric, nearly 13,000% rise in 2021.“This Saturday is going to be a total make-or-break for dogecoin,” Beesetti told MarketWatch in a phone interview.“If he can really get the messaging right, dogecoin can really take off…or it’s going to crash to wherever it’s going to crash to,” she said.The 25-year-old investor is one of a number of relatively young traders who are piling into speculative altcoins like dogecoin as the so-called joke asset mints millionaires and draws some concerns about a bubble forming in the nascent crypto complex.Musk will host NBC’s late-night live television comedy sketch show, “Saturday Night Live,” this weekend and his coming appearance has already drawn cheers and jeers.Musk has been one of the biggest cheerleaders for dogecoin and crypto broadly. The self-appointed “Technoking” of Tesla has been mostly using his massive social media following to pump up the price of doge, tweeting back on April 1 that he would use his SpaceX rockets to put a physical Doge coin on the literal moon, echoing the social media goal of taking the coin’s price “to the moon.”Beesetti said that she first got involved in dogecoin — she also invests in technology stocks and exchange-traded funds — at the prompting of Musk’s social-media missives from last summer.She bought dogecoin when it was trading at 3/10ths of a penny and she kept dollar-cost averaging her position in the digital asset created in 2013 even as it hit around 1 cent last August.Musk has become a rallying point for dogecoin holders on sites like Reddit and his coming appearance on “SNL” is a hotly anticipated moment inside and outside crypto markets, which had largely been centered on bitcoin and Ethereum ,the two largest cryptos in the world.Dogecoin has long held the reputation as a joke currency in the digital-asset realm but it is hard to deny that its surging value has gripped Main Street and Wall Street’s attention — at least momentarily.Former “SNL” cast member and comedian David Spade on Thursday tweeted that he wondered if Musk’s appearance on the sketch show would equate to a 90-minute infomercial for doge, adding, perhaps tongue in cheek that he was buying dogecoin.Oddsmakers at betting platformSportsBettingDime.com have established a number of prop bets about Musk’s appearance on “Saturday Night Live,” including which if any crypto he mentions first on the show.Which cryptocurrency does Musk mention first:1. Bitcoin: -2002. Dogecoin: +6003. FIELD: +4504. Does Not Mention Bitcoin: +400Beesetti said that she sold about $8,000 worth of dogecoin recently to buy a pair of Gucci shoes, an iPhone and upped her position in Ether thar runs on the Ethereum protocol but has otherwise been a steady holder of doge.The investor wouldn’t offer specific figures but said that her holdings currently range from 50,000 to 100,000 dogecoin.Perhaps unlike some investors in doge, she is under no illusion that it has utility but submits to the possibility that momentum could build in a parody asset to such an extent that it forges its own legitimacy.“Doge doesn’t have intrinsic value,” Beesetti said. “The value becomes real if you and a collective group of people believe in it. And in this case, there are more groups and people than before who believe.”That said, reality could hit meme coin holders hard come Sunday morning, at least one analyst said.“Post-SNL, some crypto traders could abandon short-term Dogecoin bets once it becomes clear that it is not skyrocketing to the moon or at the heavily eyed $1 level,” wrote Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda, in a research note.The analyst also notes that strong conviction of dogecoin investors,known as hodlers in the crypto world, could defy logic and keep prices buoyant.“The retail-army of traders that have been committed to Doge might remain stubbornly hodlers, so we shouldn’t be surprised if a sell the event reaction does not happen,” the Oanda strategist said.How it all plays out for dogecoin is anyone’s guess.“It’s just a meme currency but sometimes the most entertaining outcome becomes the reality,” Beesetti said.That meme currency has enjoyed a spectacular ride compared against most other assets. Gold futures are down 3% so far this year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 index are up by nearly 13% in 2021, while the Nasdaq Composite Index has gained about over 6% so far this year.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":441,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182249557,"gmtCreate":1623582159979,"gmtModify":1631889813874,"author":{"id":"3582026584233746","authorId":"3582026584233746","name":"cookiemonstr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfdda60d9914bdbf35bd08fe9ee92d34","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582026584233746","idStr":"3582026584233746"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I love tiger , comment and like","listText":"I love tiger , comment and like","text":"I love tiger , comment and like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/182249557","repostId":"1185020128","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185020128","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623537503,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1185020128?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-13 06:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Meme Stock Soars 1,000% To Lead These Two Top Small Cap Stock Plays<blockquote>Meme股票飙升1,000%，领跑这两只顶级小盘股</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185020128","media":"investors","summary":"GameStop may be the top holding in SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Value, but that's not the only reason the ","content":"<p>GameStop may be the top holding in SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Value, but that's not the only reason the ETF is beating its growth-stock counterpart.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站可能是SPDR S&amp;P 600小型股价值中最大的持股，但这并不是该ETF击败成长型股票的唯一原因。</blockquote></p><p> The $4.2 billion value fund tracks the S&amp;P SmallCap 600 Value Index (SLYV), composed of stocks with the strongest value traits based on book value to price ratio, earnings to price ratio, and sales to price ratio. SLYV rallied 32% this year through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>这只价值42亿美元的价值基金追踪S&amp;P SmallCap 600价值指数(SLYV)，该指数由根据账面价值与价格比率、市盈率和销售价格比率具有最强价值特征的股票组成。截至周四收盘，SLYV今年上涨了32%。</blockquote></p><p> That more than doubles the return of its growth stock counterpart, SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth (SLYG), which is up 15%. The index SLYG tracks includes stocks with the strongest growth traits based on sales growth, earnings change to price and momentum.</p><p><blockquote>这是成长型股票SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth(SLYG)回报率的两倍多，后者上涨了15%。SLYG跟踪的指数包括基于销售增长、盈利价格变化和动量的增长特征最强的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Back to SLYV, financials accounted for the biggest sector weight at 24% of assets. Industrials weighed in at about 17%, consumer discretionary 15% and real estate 10%. Information technology was next at 8% and materials, energy and health care, 6% each.&nbsp;Smaller positions in consumer staples, utilities and communication services made up the rest.</p><p><blockquote>回到SLYV，金融业占资产比重最大，占资产的24%。工业股约占17%，非必需消费品股15%，房地产股10%。其次是信息技术，占8%，材料、能源和医疗保健，各占6%。消费品、公用事业和通信服务的较小头寸占其余部分。</blockquote></p><p> SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Value is in IBD's ETF Leaders, but SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth is not.</p><p><blockquote>SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Value位居IBD ETF领先者之列，但SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth则不然。</blockquote></p><p> <b>GameStop Stock Leads</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站股票领先</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>GameStop</b>(GME),<b>Macy's</b>(M),<b>PDC Energy</b>(PDCE),<b>Resideo Technologies</b>(REZI) and<b>BankUnited</b>(BKU) were the top five holdings as of Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站</b>（GME），<b>梅西百货</b>(M)，<b>PDC能源</b>（PDCE），<b>Resideo技术</b>（雷齐）和<b>联合银行</b>(BKU)是截至周三的前五大持股。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Pacific Premier Bancorp</b>(PPBI),<b>Bed Bath &amp; Beyond</b>(BBBY),<b>Ameris Bancorp</b>(ABCB),<b>First Hawaiian</b>(FHB) and<b>Insight Enterprises</b>(NSIT) rounded out the top 10.</p><p><blockquote><b>太平洋卓越银行</b>（PPBI），<b>贝德柏士比昂公司</b>（BBBY），<b>美国银行</b>（ABCB），<b>第一夏威夷人</b>（FHB）和<b>洞察企业</b>(NSIT)跻身前十名。</blockquote></p><p> GameStop has undergone wide swings this year. It rocketed about 2,500% early this year amid theshort-squeeze rallyfueled by the Reddit/WallStreetBets crowd.GME stockthen crashed 92% from a Jan. 28 high to its mid-February low. That was followed by an 805% surge the next three weeks, and a 66% drop over the next two weeks.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站今年经历了大幅波动。今年早些时候，在Reddit/WallStreetBets人群推动的空头挤压反弹中，该股飙升了约2,500%。GME股票随后从1月28日的高点暴跌92%至2月中旬的低点。随后在接下来的三周内飙升805%，在接下来的两周内下跌66%。</blockquote></p><p> Action had been relatively subdued since, until Thursday's 27% dive. Even after that, GameStop stock was up 1,070% year to date through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>此后，股价一直相对低迷，直到周四暴跌27%。即便如此，截至周四收盘，游戏驿站股价今年迄今仍上涨了1,070%。</blockquote></p><p> Could GME be inflating SLYV's performance? Certainly, given its quadruple-digit gain. But a look at SLYG's portfolio is interesting. GameStop stock is also the top holding in the growth stock ETF, though the rest of the top 10 differ vastly.</p><p><blockquote>GME会夸大SLYV的业绩吗？当然，考虑到其四位数的增益。但看看SLYG的投资组合很有趣。游戏驿站股票也是成长型股票ETF中持股最多的股票，尽管前10名中的其他股票差异很大。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Second Meme Stock In Top 10</b></p><p><blockquote><b>前十名中的第二只模因股票</b></blockquote></p><p> PDC Energy, up 130%, saw the next biggest gain in the top 10. The Colorado-based oil and gas explorer has a 97Relative Strength Rating, which mean it's in the top 3% of all stocks. Its relative strength line is at a 52-week high, a bullish sign.</p><p><blockquote>PDC Energy上涨130%，在前十名中涨幅第二大。这家总部位于科罗拉多州的石油和天然气勘探公司的相对强度评级为97，这意味着它在所有股票中排名前3%。其相对强弱线处于52周高点，这是一个看涨信号。</blockquote></p><p> Bed Bath &amp; Beyond, another meme stock, is up 78% this year. Shares surged more than 200% in January, amid a spate of wild double-digit swings. BBBY stock then gave back the bulk of its gains.</p><p><blockquote>另一只模因股票Bed Bath&amp;Beyond今年上涨了78%。在一系列两位数的剧烈波动中，股价在1月份飙升了200%以上。BBBY股票随后回吐了大部分涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> But the home goods retailer appears to be back on the radar of the WallStreetBets discussion group. On June 2, Bed Bath &amp; Beyond soared 62% before diving 28% the next session.</p><p><blockquote>但这家家居用品零售商似乎又重新受到了WallStreetBets讨论组的关注。6月2日，Bed Bath&amp;Beyond股价飙升62%，随后第二个交易日暴跌28%。</blockquote></p><p> The rest of the top 10 stocks have also outperformed the broader market. Macy's is up 68% year to date, while Resideo, Pacific Premier and Ameris have risen more than 40% each. The lowest gainer, bank holding company First Hawaiian, has advanced 20%. The S&amp;P 500 held a 13% gain through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>其余前10只股票的表现也优于大盘。梅西百货今年迄今上涨了68%，而Resideo、Pacific Premier和Ameris的涨幅均超过40%。涨幅最低的银行控股公司First Hawaiian上涨了20%。截至周四收盘，标普500上涨了13%。</blockquote></p><p> SLYV remains in potential buy range from an 87.29entryof acup with handle, according toMarketSmithchart analysis.&nbsp;SLYV and SLYG charge a 0.15% expense ratio.</p><p><blockquote>根据MarketSmithChart分析，SLYV仍处于带手柄acup的87.29入场点的潜在买入范围内。SLYV和SLYG收取0.15%的费用率。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610449120050","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Meme Stock Soars 1,000% To Lead These Two Top Small Cap Stock Plays<blockquote>Meme股票飙升1,000%，领跑这两只顶级小盘股</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMeme Stock Soars 1,000% To Lead These Two Top Small Cap Stock Plays<blockquote>Meme股票飙升1,000%，领跑这两只顶级小盘股</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">investors</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-13 06:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>GameStop may be the top holding in SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Value, but that's not the only reason the ETF is beating its growth-stock counterpart.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站可能是SPDR S&amp;P 600小型股价值中最大的持股，但这并不是该ETF击败成长型股票的唯一原因。</blockquote></p><p> The $4.2 billion value fund tracks the S&amp;P SmallCap 600 Value Index (SLYV), composed of stocks with the strongest value traits based on book value to price ratio, earnings to price ratio, and sales to price ratio. SLYV rallied 32% this year through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>这只价值42亿美元的价值基金追踪S&amp;P SmallCap 600价值指数(SLYV)，该指数由根据账面价值与价格比率、市盈率和销售价格比率具有最强价值特征的股票组成。截至周四收盘，SLYV今年上涨了32%。</blockquote></p><p> That more than doubles the return of its growth stock counterpart, SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth (SLYG), which is up 15%. The index SLYG tracks includes stocks with the strongest growth traits based on sales growth, earnings change to price and momentum.</p><p><blockquote>这是成长型股票SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth(SLYG)回报率的两倍多，后者上涨了15%。SLYG跟踪的指数包括基于销售增长、盈利价格变化和动量的增长特征最强的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Back to SLYV, financials accounted for the biggest sector weight at 24% of assets. Industrials weighed in at about 17%, consumer discretionary 15% and real estate 10%. Information technology was next at 8% and materials, energy and health care, 6% each.&nbsp;Smaller positions in consumer staples, utilities and communication services made up the rest.</p><p><blockquote>回到SLYV，金融业占资产比重最大，占资产的24%。工业股约占17%，非必需消费品股15%，房地产股10%。其次是信息技术，占8%，材料、能源和医疗保健，各占6%。消费品、公用事业和通信服务的较小头寸占其余部分。</blockquote></p><p> SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Value is in IBD's ETF Leaders, but SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth is not.</p><p><blockquote>SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Value位居IBD ETF领先者之列，但SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth则不然。</blockquote></p><p> <b>GameStop Stock Leads</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站股票领先</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>GameStop</b>(GME),<b>Macy's</b>(M),<b>PDC Energy</b>(PDCE),<b>Resideo Technologies</b>(REZI) and<b>BankUnited</b>(BKU) were the top five holdings as of Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站</b>（GME），<b>梅西百货</b>(M)，<b>PDC能源</b>（PDCE），<b>Resideo技术</b>（雷齐）和<b>联合银行</b>(BKU)是截至周三的前五大持股。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Pacific Premier Bancorp</b>(PPBI),<b>Bed Bath &amp; Beyond</b>(BBBY),<b>Ameris Bancorp</b>(ABCB),<b>First Hawaiian</b>(FHB) and<b>Insight Enterprises</b>(NSIT) rounded out the top 10.</p><p><blockquote><b>太平洋卓越银行</b>（PPBI），<b>贝德柏士比昂公司</b>（BBBY），<b>美国银行</b>（ABCB），<b>第一夏威夷人</b>（FHB）和<b>洞察企业</b>(NSIT)跻身前十名。</blockquote></p><p> GameStop has undergone wide swings this year. It rocketed about 2,500% early this year amid theshort-squeeze rallyfueled by the Reddit/WallStreetBets crowd.GME stockthen crashed 92% from a Jan. 28 high to its mid-February low. That was followed by an 805% surge the next three weeks, and a 66% drop over the next two weeks.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站今年经历了大幅波动。今年早些时候，在Reddit/WallStreetBets人群推动的空头挤压反弹中，该股飙升了约2,500%。GME股票随后从1月28日的高点暴跌92%至2月中旬的低点。随后在接下来的三周内飙升805%，在接下来的两周内下跌66%。</blockquote></p><p> Action had been relatively subdued since, until Thursday's 27% dive. Even after that, GameStop stock was up 1,070% year to date through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>此后，股价一直相对低迷，直到周四暴跌27%。即便如此，截至周四收盘，游戏驿站股价今年迄今仍上涨了1,070%。</blockquote></p><p> Could GME be inflating SLYV's performance? Certainly, given its quadruple-digit gain. But a look at SLYG's portfolio is interesting. GameStop stock is also the top holding in the growth stock ETF, though the rest of the top 10 differ vastly.</p><p><blockquote>GME会夸大SLYV的业绩吗？当然，考虑到其四位数的增益。但看看SLYG的投资组合很有趣。游戏驿站股票也是成长型股票ETF中持股最多的股票，尽管前10名中的其他股票差异很大。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Second Meme Stock In Top 10</b></p><p><blockquote><b>前十名中的第二只模因股票</b></blockquote></p><p> PDC Energy, up 130%, saw the next biggest gain in the top 10. The Colorado-based oil and gas explorer has a 97Relative Strength Rating, which mean it's in the top 3% of all stocks. Its relative strength line is at a 52-week high, a bullish sign.</p><p><blockquote>PDC Energy上涨130%，在前十名中涨幅第二大。这家总部位于科罗拉多州的石油和天然气勘探公司的相对强度评级为97，这意味着它在所有股票中排名前3%。其相对强弱线处于52周高点，这是一个看涨信号。</blockquote></p><p> Bed Bath &amp; Beyond, another meme stock, is up 78% this year. Shares surged more than 200% in January, amid a spate of wild double-digit swings. BBBY stock then gave back the bulk of its gains.</p><p><blockquote>另一只模因股票Bed Bath&amp;Beyond今年上涨了78%。在一系列两位数的剧烈波动中，股价在1月份飙升了200%以上。BBBY股票随后回吐了大部分涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> But the home goods retailer appears to be back on the radar of the WallStreetBets discussion group. On June 2, Bed Bath &amp; Beyond soared 62% before diving 28% the next session.</p><p><blockquote>但这家家居用品零售商似乎又重新受到了WallStreetBets讨论组的关注。6月2日，Bed Bath&amp;Beyond股价飙升62%，随后第二个交易日暴跌28%。</blockquote></p><p> The rest of the top 10 stocks have also outperformed the broader market. Macy's is up 68% year to date, while Resideo, Pacific Premier and Ameris have risen more than 40% each. The lowest gainer, bank holding company First Hawaiian, has advanced 20%. The S&amp;P 500 held a 13% gain through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>其余前10只股票的表现也优于大盘。梅西百货今年迄今上涨了68%，而Resideo、Pacific Premier和Ameris的涨幅均超过40%。涨幅最低的银行控股公司First Hawaiian上涨了20%。截至周四收盘，标普500上涨了13%。</blockquote></p><p> SLYV remains in potential buy range from an 87.29entryof acup with handle, according toMarketSmithchart analysis.&nbsp;SLYV and SLYG charge a 0.15% expense ratio.</p><p><blockquote>根据MarketSmithChart分析，SLYV仍处于带手柄acup的87.29入场点的潜在买入范围内。SLYV和SLYG收取0.15%的费用率。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/etf-leaders/gamestop-stock-soars-1000-percent-lead-two-top-small-cap-stock-plays/?src=A00220\">investors</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PDCE":"PDC Energy","BBBY":"Bed Bath & Beyond, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/etf-leaders/gamestop-stock-soars-1000-percent-lead-two-top-small-cap-stock-plays/?src=A00220","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185020128","content_text":"GameStop may be the top holding in SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Value, but that's not the only reason the ETF is beating its growth-stock counterpart.\nThe $4.2 billion value fund tracks the S&P SmallCap 600 Value Index (SLYV), composed of stocks with the strongest value traits based on book value to price ratio, earnings to price ratio, and sales to price ratio. SLYV rallied 32% this year through Thursday's close.\nThat more than doubles the return of its growth stock counterpart, SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Growth (SLYG), which is up 15%. The index SLYG tracks includes stocks with the strongest growth traits based on sales growth, earnings change to price and momentum.\nBack to SLYV, financials accounted for the biggest sector weight at 24% of assets. Industrials weighed in at about 17%, consumer discretionary 15% and real estate 10%. Information technology was next at 8% and materials, energy and health care, 6% each. Smaller positions in consumer staples, utilities and communication services made up the rest.\nSPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Value is in IBD's ETF Leaders, but SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Growth is not.\nGameStop Stock Leads\nGameStop(GME),Macy's(M),PDC Energy(PDCE),Resideo Technologies(REZI) andBankUnited(BKU) were the top five holdings as of Wednesday.\nPacific Premier Bancorp(PPBI),Bed Bath & Beyond(BBBY),Ameris Bancorp(ABCB),First Hawaiian(FHB) andInsight Enterprises(NSIT) rounded out the top 10.\nGameStop has undergone wide swings this year. It rocketed about 2,500% early this year amid theshort-squeeze rallyfueled by the Reddit/WallStreetBets crowd.GME stockthen crashed 92% from a Jan. 28 high to its mid-February low. That was followed by an 805% surge the next three weeks, and a 66% drop over the next two weeks.\nAction had been relatively subdued since, until Thursday's 27% dive. Even after that, GameStop stock was up 1,070% year to date through Thursday's close.\nCould GME be inflating SLYV's performance? Certainly, given its quadruple-digit gain. But a look at SLYG's portfolio is interesting. GameStop stock is also the top holding in the growth stock ETF, though the rest of the top 10 differ vastly.\nSecond Meme Stock In Top 10\nPDC Energy, up 130%, saw the next biggest gain in the top 10. The Colorado-based oil and gas explorer has a 97Relative Strength Rating, which mean it's in the top 3% of all stocks. Its relative strength line is at a 52-week high, a bullish sign.\nBed Bath & Beyond, another meme stock, is up 78% this year. Shares surged more than 200% in January, amid a spate of wild double-digit swings. BBBY stock then gave back the bulk of its gains.\nBut the home goods retailer appears to be back on the radar of the WallStreetBets discussion group. On June 2, Bed Bath & Beyond soared 62% before diving 28% the next session.\nThe rest of the top 10 stocks have also outperformed the broader market. Macy's is up 68% year to date, while Resideo, Pacific Premier and Ameris have risen more than 40% each. The lowest gainer, bank holding company First Hawaiian, has advanced 20%. The S&P 500 held a 13% gain through Thursday's close.\nSLYV remains in potential buy range from an 87.29entryof acup with handle, according toMarketSmithchart analysis. SLYV and SLYG charge a 0.15% expense ratio.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BBBY":0.9,"PDCE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1785,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":117507249,"gmtCreate":1623148242081,"gmtModify":1634036452268,"author":{"id":"3582026584233746","authorId":"3582026584233746","name":"cookiemonstr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfdda60d9914bdbf35bd08fe9ee92d34","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582026584233746","idStr":"3582026584233746"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment !","listText":"Like and comment !","text":"Like and comment !","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/117507249","repostId":"1136550999","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":750,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}