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20:59","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美股新春“猛虎变喵喵”?历史数据:还能涨回来!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130050232","media":"第一财经","summary":"在辞旧迎新的除夕夜里,标普500指数和纳指结束了自2020年3月以来表现最糟糕的一个月。标普500指数和纳指在1月分别累计下挫5.3%和9%,后者更录得2008年以来最差的1月份表现。同期,道指收跌3","content":"<div>\n<p>在辞旧迎新的除夕夜里,标普500指数和纳指结束了自2020年3月以来表现最糟糕的一个月。标普500指数和纳指在1月分别累计下挫5.3%和9%,后者更录得2008年以来最差的1月份表现。同期,道指收跌3.3%,为去年11月以来最大单月跌幅,追踪小盘股的罗素2000指数重挫9.66%。高烧不退的通胀、去而复返的新冠疫情、短期难解的供应链瓶颈,加之对美联储加速收紧货币政策的预期,俨然已成横于美股上行途中...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101306745.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"dyvj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股新春“猛虎变喵喵”?历史数据:还能涨回来!</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股新春“猛虎变喵喵”?历史数据:还能涨回来!\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-02-01 20:59 北京时间 <a href=https://www.yicai.com/news/101306745.html><strong>第一财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在辞旧迎新的除夕夜里,标普500指数和纳指结束了自2020年3月以来表现最糟糕的一个月。标普500指数和纳指在1月分别累计下挫5.3%和9%,后者更录得2008年以来最差的1月份表现。同期,道指收跌3.3%,为去年11月以来最大单月跌幅,追踪小盘股的罗素2000指数重挫9.66%。高烧不退的通胀、去而复返的新冠疫情、短期难解的供应链瓶颈,加之对美联储加速收紧货币政策的预期,俨然已成横于美股上行途中...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101306745.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.yicai.com/news/101306745.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130050232","content_text":"在辞旧迎新的除夕夜里,标普500指数和纳指结束了自2020年3月以来表现最糟糕的一个月。标普500指数和纳指在1月分别累计下挫5.3%和9%,后者更录得2008年以来最差的1月份表现。同期,道指收跌3.3%,为去年11月以来最大单月跌幅,追踪小盘股的罗素2000指数重挫9.66%。高烧不退的通胀、去而复返的新冠疫情、短期难解的供应链瓶颈,加之对美联储加速收紧货币政策的预期,俨然已成横于美股上行途中的重重大山。标普500指数的11个板块中,除能源股逆势上行外,均在新年出现回落。开年糟糕,全年躺到?开年走低并非好兆头,毕竟华尔街素有“1月晴雨表”之说,所谓“一月如此,全年亦如此”。据股票交易者年鉴(Stock Trader's Almanac)的统计数据,自1950年以来,美股股指1月表现“大概率”能预测出年内剩余月份的涨跌态势,准确率高达84.5%。数十年间,仅出现过12次明显预测差错。在股指跌幅明显时,数据预测更令人沮丧。据道琼斯市场数据(Dow Jones Market Data)的统计,自1957年以来,当标普500指数在1月份下挫幅度达5%及以上时,当年剩余月份的平均累计涨幅仅为2.7%。需要指出的是,伴随全球“黑天鹅”事件频发,近年来“1月晴雨表”的预报准确性有待观察。2020年和2021年标普500指数在1月分别下挫0.16%和1.11%,同年股指累计大涨16.26%和26.89%。通胀重压下,美联储加速收紧货币政策的预期成为近期美股震荡加剧的主要推手。芝加哥商品交易所的美联储观察工具(Fed Watch Tool)显示,交易员预测年内加息100个基点的概率已升至92.1%。要知道,1个月前该预测概率仅为34.5%。目前,对今年加息125个基点和150个基点的概率预测已分别升至69.9%和35.7%。交易员预测年内加息100个基点概率升至92.1% (来源:芝商所美联储观察工具)美国银行的首席经济学家哈里斯(Ethan Harris)将今年美国国内生产总值(GDP)增速从4%下调至3.6%,并预计通胀水平在今年底前仍将高于3%。该行预测,美联储将自3月起,在年内剩余的每一次货币政策会议上加息25个基点,当年共计加息7次(175个基点),到2023年底前,联邦基金利率将达到2.75%~3.00%,从而抑制通胀并减缓增长。周一,三位美联储高官就货币政策路径发表看法。旧金山联储主席玛丽·戴利(Mary Daly)称,在打击通胀方面,美联储“完全没有落后”,并强调加息应是“渐进的”。与此同时,堪萨斯城联储主席埃斯特·乔治(Esther George)认为,大幅缩减近9万亿美元的资产负债表,有助于缓解美联储在短期激进加息的紧迫性。里士满联储主席托马斯·巴金(Thomas Barkin)则表示,“加息受到商界欢迎”,其步伐取决于经济数据。在刚刚过去的周末,亚特兰大联储主席拉斐尔·博斯蒂克(Raphael Bostic)在接受英媒采访时表示,如果通胀居高不下,美联储可能会将加息幅度扩大至50个基点。他同时重申,目前仍维持今年加息3次,每次25个基点的预期不变。多数回调都是趁低吸纳的好时机?历史数据显示,标普500指数平均每年有3次超5%或以上的回调,每年一次10%以上的回调。在全年上涨的年份中,标普500指数平均最大回调幅度达11%。鉴于美股自2020年3月的暴跌反弹至今,去年仅遭遇一次约5%的回调,券商LPL Financial的首席市场策略师瑞安·德特里克(Ryan Detrick)认为:“回调时机已至。”高盛团队的统计数据显示,自1950年以来,在非经济衰退期间出现的21次盘整中(高位回落超10%),标普500指数平均回调幅度达15%。值得庆幸的是,多数回调都被证实是趁低吸纳的好时机。自1950年以来,标普500指数经历的33次盘整中,平均历时约5个月,峰谷跌幅达18%。但是,若投资者在股指较高位回落10%时入市,此后12个月的平均回报率达15%。其中,最大的区别是美国经济是否进入衰退。高盛策略师大卫·科斯汀(David Kostin)的团队在报告中表示:“除非经济进入衰退,否则盘整很少会变成熊市。”美联储加息、中期选举左右走势事实上,历史数据表明在加息周期中,美股素来表现良好。据Truist联席首席投资官基思·勒纳 (Keith Lerner) 统计,自1950年代以来的12次美联储加息周期中,美股年均增幅达9%,其中11次实现了正回报。唯一的例外发生在1972~1974 年间,即经济危机期间。券商LPL Financial统计显示,自1980年以来标普500指数在所有8次加息周期中均实现上涨。其中,首次加息后6个月平均涨幅7.5%,12个月的平均涨幅10.8%。根据彭博汇编的数据,标普500指数年末点位预测平均值为4982点,较1月末收盘价4515点仍有10.34%的上浮空间。更长期而言,形势甚至更为乐观。LPL Financial的测算发现,美联储首次加息通常发生于经济周期的中早期阶段,此后美股牛市仍能持续约40个月。事实上,首次加息后至牛市见顶前,股指的平均涨幅达67%。“这意味着在下一次熊市来临前,标普500指数有望攀升至7700点。”德特里克在一份报告中写道。此外,一个不可忽视的风险或发生在今年下半年,也就是11月举行的美国中期选举。随着中期选举脚步临近,鉴于选举结果及其导致的后续政策变化的不确定性,投资者谨慎观望情绪将逐级上升。股票交易者年鉴统计了自1946年以来的数据显示,标普500指数在中期选举年的平均涨幅较常年平均低出约3个百分点,其中新任总统的首次中期选举中股指表现尤其差。中期选举年,美股表现逊于常年 (图源:Hirsch Holdings)根据LPL Financial 的数据,自 1950 年以来,标准普尔 500 指数在中期选举年内的高位回调幅度平均达17.1%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":179,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":639460229,"gmtCreate":1643383997964,"gmtModify":1643384059720,"author":{"id":"3582024898946297","authorId":"3582024898946297","name":"HydeSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72af1d441a23d183a49ab70f574222ae","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"玩滑雪游戏 夺金牌","listText":"玩滑雪游戏 夺金牌","text":"玩滑雪游戏 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