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2022-01-06

Niceee

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2021-12-14

Nice

AMC, GameStop short sellers make a comeback as meme stocks buckle<blockquote>随着模因股票下跌，AMC 和游戏驿站卖空者卷土重来</blockquote>

2021-09-20

Like

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2021-09-15

[惊讶] [惊讶] [惊讶]

U.S. stocks close lower on worries over recovery, corporate tax hikes<blockquote>由于对经济复苏和企业增税的担忧，美国股市收盘走低</blockquote>

2021-09-14

Amc is backkkkk

Why GameStop and Other Meme Stocks Jumped Today<blockquote>为什么游戏驿站和其他模因股票今天上涨</blockquote>

2021-09-09

Plz like

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2021-09-07

Plz like

Strategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?<blockquote>策略师表示，今年秋天股市可能会陷入困境。现在买什么？</blockquote>

2021-09-05

Plz like

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2021-08-25

Like

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2021-08-23

Nice

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2021-08-21

Like

Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股的回调——长期关注这 6 家公司</blockquote>

2021-06-20

12 IPOs: Chinese freight platform Full Truck Alliance(YMM)Healthcare manager Bright Health Group(BHG)Data infrastructure provider Confluent(CFLT) plans Car wash brand Mister Car Wash(MCW)Digital physicians network Doximity(DOCS)Customer experience software provider Sprinklr(CXM) HR platform provider First Advantage(FA) Chinese social networking platform Soulgate(SSR) Digital financial services provider AMTD Digital(HKD)Organ bioengineering company Miromatrix Medical(MIRO) Kidney disease biotech Unicycive Therapeutics(UNCY) Antibiotic biotech Acurx Pharmaceuticals(ACXP)

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2021-06-17

Hmmm....

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2021-06-16

Hmm....

Is Fisker The Next Short Squeeze?<blockquote>菲斯克是下一个空头挤压吗？</blockquote>

2021-06-15

Hmm....

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2021-06-14

Good news for covid too

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2021-06-13

Ape stock

Meme Stock Soars 1,000% To Lead These Two Top Small Cap Stock Plays<blockquote>Meme 股票飙升 1,000%，领跑这两只顶级小盘股</blockquote>

2021-06-12

Wow

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2021-06-11

Wow

Fubo TV surged over 7% in morning trading<blockquote>富博电视早盘飙升逾7%</blockquote>

2021-06-11

Looking forward

China's Didi reveals U.S. IPO filing, sets stage for blockbuster New York float<blockquote>中国滴滴公布美国 IPO 文件，为纽约重磅上市奠定基础</blockquote>

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23:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC, GameStop short sellers make a comeback as meme stocks buckle<blockquote>随着模因股票下跌，AMC 和游戏驿站卖空者卷土重来</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199342811","media":"Reuters","summary":"Shares of AMC Entertainment and GameStop dropped further in early trading on Tuesday, extending declines that have helped short sellers recover more than $1 billion in losses in December.Both companies were at the heart of the meme stocks phenomenon earlier this year, when individual investors coordinated on online message boards to fuel stunning rallies that cost short sellers billions of dollars.Theater chain AMC dropped 8% to a new 7-month low at $21.31 and were on track for a fourth day of l","content":"<p>Shares of AMC Entertainment and GameStop dropped further in early trading on Tuesday, extending declines that have helped short sellers recover more than $1 billion in losses in December.</p><p><blockquote>AMC院线和游戏驿站的股价在周二早盘交易中进一步下跌，延续了帮助卖空者挽回 12 月份超过 10 亿美元的损失的跌势。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies were at the heart of the meme stocks phenomenon earlier this year, when individual investors coordinated on online message boards to fuel stunning rallies that cost short sellers billions of dollars.</p><p><blockquote>这两家公司都是今年早些时候模因股票现象的核心，当时个人投资者在在线留言板上协调，推动了惊人的反弹，导致卖空者损失了数十亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Theater chain AMC dropped 8% to a new 7-month low at $21.31 and were on track for a fourth day of losses, while videogame retailer GameStop shed 4.3% to $131 - its lowest level since March.</p><p><blockquote>连锁影院 AMC 股价下跌 8%，至 21.31 美元的 7 个月新低，有望连续第四天下跌，而视频游戏零售商游戏驿站股价下跌 4.3%，至 131 美元，为 3 月份以来的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p> Short-sellers have made $1.1 billion on their positions on AMC stock since the beginning of December, according to data from analytics firm Ortex. GameStop short-sellers have made $330 million since the start of the month. Both stocks have lost nearly a third of their value in December.</p><p><blockquote>根据分析公司 Ortex 的数据，自 12 月初以来，卖空者已从 AMC 股票头寸中获利 11 亿美元。自本月初以来，游戏驿站卖空者已赚取 3.3 亿美元。这两只股票在 12 月份都损失了近三分之一的价值。</blockquote></p><p> Still, so far this year, bearish investors have lost $1.3 billion on their bets on AMC and $11.78 billion in GameStop as their shares have rallied about 1,000% and 600% year-to-date, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，今年到目前为止，看跌投资者对 AMC 的押注已损失 13 亿美元，对游戏驿站的押注已损失 117.8 亿美元，因为他们的股价今年迄今已分别上涨约 1,000% 和 600%。</blockquote></p><p> The estimated short interest at AMC increased to 19% of its free float from 16% at the end of November, per Ortex data. GameStop short interest has shot up to 14% from 11% in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>根据 Ortex 数据，AMC 的预计空头权益从 11 月底的 16% 增至其自由流通量的 19%。游戏驿站空头利息从同期的 11% 飙升至 14%。</blockquote></p><p> Insider selling at AMC last week added to worries over the Omicron coronavirus variant denting a recovery in theater attendance.</p><p><blockquote>上周 AMC 的内幕抛售加剧了人们对奥密克戎冠状病毒变种削弱影院上座率复苏的担忧。</blockquote></p><p> Retail traders were net sellers of equities for the first time since March 2021 in the week leading up to Dec. 8 in the largest outflow since Sep 2020, J.P.Morgan data showed last week.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通上周的数据显示，在截至 12 月 8 日的一周内，散户交易员自 2021 年 3 月以来首次成为股票净卖家，这是自 2020 年 9 月以来最大的资金流出。</blockquote></p><p> Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, said AMC investors are worried about the reopening trade, with comments from the UK that Omicron infections could become a tidal wave weighing on the sentiment.</p><p><blockquote>CFRA Research 首席投资策略师 Sam Stovall 表示，AMC 投资者对重新开放交易感到担忧，英国评论称奥密克戎感染可能成为打压市场情绪的浪潮。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC, GameStop short sellers make a comeback as meme stocks buckle<blockquote>随着模因股票下跌，AMC 和游戏驿站卖空者卷土重来</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-14 23:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Shares of AMC Entertainment and GameStop dropped further in early trading on Tuesday, extending declines that have helped short sellers recover more than $1 billion in losses in December.</p><p><blockquote>AMC院线和游戏驿站的股价在周二早盘交易中进一步下跌，延续了帮助卖空者挽回 12 月份超过 10 亿美元的损失的跌势。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies were at the heart of the meme stocks phenomenon earlier this year, when individual investors coordinated on online message boards to fuel stunning rallies that cost short sellers billions of dollars.</p><p><blockquote>这两家公司都是今年早些时候模因股票现象的核心，当时个人投资者在在线留言板上协调，推动了惊人的反弹，导致卖空者损失了数十亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Theater chain AMC dropped 8% to a new 7-month low at $21.31 and were on track for a fourth day of losses, while videogame retailer GameStop shed 4.3% to $131 - its lowest level since March.</p><p><blockquote>连锁影院 AMC 股价下跌 8%，至 21.31 美元的 7 个月新低，有望连续第四天下跌，而视频游戏零售商游戏驿站股价下跌 4.3%，至 131 美元，为 3 月份以来的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p> Short-sellers have made $1.1 billion on their positions on AMC stock since the beginning of December, according to data from analytics firm Ortex. GameStop short-sellers have made $330 million since the start of the month. Both stocks have lost nearly a third of their value in December.</p><p><blockquote>根据分析公司 Ortex 的数据，自 12 月初以来，卖空者已从 AMC 股票头寸中获利 11 亿美元。自本月初以来，游戏驿站卖空者已赚取 3.3 亿美元。这两只股票在 12 月份都损失了近三分之一的价值。</blockquote></p><p> Still, so far this year, bearish investors have lost $1.3 billion on their bets on AMC and $11.78 billion in GameStop as their shares have rallied about 1,000% and 600% year-to-date, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，今年到目前为止，看跌投资者对 AMC 的押注已损失 13 亿美元，对游戏驿站的押注已损失 117.8 亿美元，因为他们的股价今年迄今已分别上涨约 1,000% 和 600%。</blockquote></p><p> The estimated short interest at AMC increased to 19% of its free float from 16% at the end of November, per Ortex data. GameStop short interest has shot up to 14% from 11% in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>根据 Ortex 数据，AMC 的预计空头权益从 11 月底的 16% 增至其自由流通量的 19%。游戏驿站空头利息从同期的 11% 飙升至 14%。</blockquote></p><p> Insider selling at AMC last week added to worries over the Omicron coronavirus variant denting a recovery in theater attendance.</p><p><blockquote>上周 AMC 的内幕抛售加剧了人们对奥密克戎冠状病毒变种削弱影院上座率复苏的担忧。</blockquote></p><p> Retail traders were net sellers of equities for the first time since March 2021 in the week leading up to Dec. 8 in the largest outflow since Sep 2020, J.P.Morgan data showed last week.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通上周的数据显示，在截至 12 月 8 日的一周内，散户交易员自 2021 年 3 月以来首次成为股票净卖家，这是自 2020 年 9 月以来最大的资金流出。</blockquote></p><p> Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, said AMC investors are worried about the reopening trade, with comments from the UK that Omicron infections could become a tidal wave weighing on the sentiment.</p><p><blockquote>CFRA Research 首席投资策略师 Sam Stovall 表示，AMC 投资者对重新开放交易感到担忧，英国评论称奥密克戎感染可能成为打压市场情绪的浪潮。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amc-gamestop-short-sellers-comeback-144659441.html\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线","GME":"游戏驿站"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amc-gamestop-short-sellers-comeback-144659441.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199342811","content_text":"Shares of AMC Entertainment and GameStop dropped further in early trading on Tuesday, extending declines that have helped short sellers recover more than $1 billion in losses in December.\nBoth companies were at the heart of the meme stocks phenomenon earlier this year, when individual investors coordinated on online message boards to fuel stunning rallies that cost short sellers billions of dollars.\nTheater chain AMC dropped 8% to a new 7-month low at $21.31 and were on track for a fourth day of losses, while videogame retailer GameStop shed 4.3% to $131 - its lowest level since March.\nShort-sellers have made $1.1 billion on their positions on AMC stock since the beginning of December, according to data from analytics firm Ortex. GameStop short-sellers have made $330 million since the start of the month. Both stocks have lost nearly a third of their value in December.\nStill, so far this year, bearish investors have lost $1.3 billion on their bets on AMC and $11.78 billion in GameStop as their shares have rallied about 1,000% and 600% year-to-date, respectively.\nThe estimated short interest at AMC increased to 19% of its free float from 16% at the end of November, per Ortex data. GameStop short interest has shot up to 14% from 11% in the same period.\nInsider selling at AMC last week added to worries over the Omicron coronavirus variant denting a recovery in theater attendance.\nRetail traders were net sellers of equities for the first time since March 2021 in the week leading up to Dec. 8 in the largest outflow since Sep 2020, J.P.Morgan data showed last week.\nSam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, said AMC investors are worried about the reopening trade, with comments from the UK that Omicron infections could become a tidal wave weighing on the sentiment.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9,"GME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3336,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":887777300,"gmtCreate":1632103627100,"gmtModify":1632802824090,"author":{"id":"3582016561552186","authorId":"3582016561552186","name":"KMK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef525a9485b7272e73ab442de514d467","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016561552186","authorIdStr":"3582016561552186"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/887777300","repostId":"1100759241","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2409,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":882419418,"gmtCreate":1631714231034,"gmtModify":1631885626104,"author":{"id":"3582016561552186","authorId":"3582016561552186","name":"KMK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef525a9485b7272e73ab442de514d467","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016561552186","authorIdStr":"3582016561552186"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;[惊讶]&nbsp;[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;[惊讶]&nbsp;[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶] [惊讶] [惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/882419418","repostId":"1148341685","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148341685","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631660884,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1148341685?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-15 07:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. stocks close lower on worries over recovery, corporate tax hikes<blockquote>由于对经济复苏和企业增税的担忧，美国股市收盘走低</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148341685","media":"Reuters","summary":"NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street lost ground on Tuesday as economic uncertainties and the increasing","content":"<p>NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street lost ground on Tuesday as economic uncertainties and the increasing likelihood of a corporate tax rate hike dampened investor sentiment and prompted a broad sell-off despite signs of easing inflation.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（路透社） - 尽管有通胀放缓的迹象，但经济不确定性和企业税率上调的可能性不断增加抑制了投资者情绪，并引发了广泛的抛售，华尔街周二下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Optimism faded throughout the session, reversing an initial rally following the Labor Department’s consumer price index report. All three major U.S. stock indexes ended in negative territory in a reminder that September is a historically rough month for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>乐观情绪在整个交易日逐渐消退，扭转了劳工部发布消费者价格指数报告后最初的反弹势头。美国三大股指均以负值收盘，这提醒人们，9 月份是股市历史上最艰难的一个月。</blockquote></p><p> So far this month the S&amp;P 500 is down nearly 1.8% even as the benchmark index has gained over 18% since the beginning of the year.</p><p><blockquote>本月到目前为止，标普500下跌了近1.8%，尽管基准指数自年初以来已上涨超过18%。</blockquote></p><p> “There is a possibility that the market is simply ready to go through an overdue correction,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York. “From a seasonality perspective, September tends to be the window dressing period for fund managers.”</p><p><blockquote>“纽约 CFRA Research 首席投资策略师 Sam Stovall 说：”市场有可能只是准备好经历一场迟来的调整。“从季节性来看，9月份往往是基金经理的窗口期。”</blockquote></p><p> The advent of the highly contagious Delta COVID variant has driven an increase in bearish sentiment regarding the recovery from the global health crisis, and many now expect a substantial correction in stock markets by the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote>高度传染性的Delta COVID变种的出现推动了对全球健康危机复苏的看跌情绪的增加，许多人现在预计股市将在今年年底前大幅调整。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re still in a corrective mode that people have been calling for months,” said Paul Nolte, portfolio manager at Kingsview Asset Management in Chicago. “Economic data points have been missing estimates, and that has coincided with the rise in the Delta variant.”</p><p><blockquote>“芝加哥 Kingsview Asset Management 的投资组合经理保罗-诺尔特（Paul Nolte）说：”我们仍处于人们几个月来一直呼吁的纠正模式。“经济数据点一直低于预期，而这恰逢德尔塔变异毒株的上升”。</blockquote></p><p> The CPI report delivered a lower-than-consensus August reading, a deceleration that supports Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s assertion that spiking inflation is transitory and calms market fears that the central bank will begin tightening monetary policy sooner than expected.</p><p><blockquote>CPI报告公布的8月份数据低于共识，这一放缓支持了美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）的断言，即通胀飙升是暂时的，并平息了市场对央行将比预期更早开始收紧货币政策的担忧。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. Treasury yields dropped on the data, which pressured financial stocks, and investor favor pivoted back to growth at the expense of value. [US/]</p><p><blockquote>数据显示，美国国债收益率下降，给金融股带来压力，投资者的青睐以牺牲价值为代价重新转向增长。[美国/]</blockquote></p><p> The long expected corporate tax hikes, to 26.5% from 21% if Democrats prevail, are coming nearer to fruition with U.S. President Joe Biden’s $3.5 trillion budget package inching closer to passage.</p><p><blockquote>随着美国总统乔-拜登（Joe Biden）的 3.5 万亿美元预算方案逐渐接近通过，人们期待已久的企业税上调幅度将从 21% 提高到 26.5%。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 292.06 points, or 0.84%, to 34,577.57; the S&amp;P 500 lost 25.68 points, or 0.57%, at 4,443.05; and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 67.82 points, or 0.45%, to 15,037.76.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数下跌292.06点，跌幅0.84%，报34,577.57点；标普500下跌25.68点，跌幅0.57%，报4,443.05点；纳斯达克综合指数下跌 67.82 点，跌幅 0.45%，至 15,037.76 点。</blockquote></p><p> All 11 major sectors in the S&amp;P 500 ended the session red, with energy and financials suffering the largest percentage drops.</p><p><blockquote>标普500 11个主要板块全部收红，其中能源和金融板块跌幅最大。</blockquote></p><p> Apple Inc unveiled its iPhone 13 and added new features to its iPad and Apple Watch gadgets in its biggest product launch event of the year as the company faces increased scrutiny in the courts over its business practices. Its shares closed down 1.0% and were the heaviest drag on the S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司在今年最大的产品发布会上推出了 iPhone 13，并为其 iPad 和苹果手表设备添加了新功能，因为该公司面临着法院对其商业行为日益严格的审查。其股价收盘下跌 1.0%，是标普500和纳斯达克最大的拖累。</blockquote></p><p> Intuit Inc gained 1.9% following the TurboTax maker’s announcement that it would acquire digital marketing company Mailchimp for $12 billion.</p><p><blockquote>Intuit Inc 上涨了 1.9%，此前这家涡轮税制造商宣布将以 120 亿美元收购数字营销公司 Mailchimp。</blockquote></p><p> CureVac slid 8.0% after the German biotechnology company canceled manufacturing deals for its experimental COVID-19 vaccine.</p><p><blockquote>德国生物技术公司 CureVac 取消其实验性 COVID-19 疫苗的生产交易后，股价下跌 8.0%。</blockquote></p><p> Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 2.25-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.40-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所下跌发行量与上涨发行量的比例为 2.25 比 1；在纳斯达克，2.40 比 1 的比率有利于下跌者。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 posted two new 52-week highs and two new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 50 new highs and 107 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下两个52周新高和两个新低；纳斯达克综合指数创下50个新高和107个新低。</blockquote></p><p> Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.07 billion shares, compared with the 9.38 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所的成交量为 100.7 亿股，而过去 20 个交易日的平均成交量为 93.8 亿股。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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}\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. stocks close lower on worries over recovery, corporate tax hikes<blockquote>由于对经济复苏和企业增税的担忧，美国股市收盘走低</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-15 07:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street lost ground on Tuesday as economic uncertainties and the increasing likelihood of a corporate tax rate hike dampened investor sentiment and prompted a broad sell-off despite signs of easing inflation.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（路透社） - 尽管有通胀放缓的迹象，但经济不确定性和企业税率上调的可能性不断增加抑制了投资者情绪，并引发了广泛的抛售，华尔街周二下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Optimism faded throughout the session, reversing an initial rally following the Labor Department’s consumer price index report. All three major U.S. stock indexes ended in negative territory in a reminder that September is a historically rough month for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>乐观情绪在整个交易日逐渐消退，扭转了劳工部发布消费者价格指数报告后最初的反弹势头。美国三大股指均以负值收盘，这提醒人们，9 月份是股市历史上最艰难的一个月。</blockquote></p><p> So far this month the S&amp;P 500 is down nearly 1.8% even as the benchmark index has gained over 18% since the beginning of the year.</p><p><blockquote>本月到目前为止，标普500下跌了近1.8%，尽管基准指数自年初以来已上涨超过18%。</blockquote></p><p> “There is a possibility that the market is simply ready to go through an overdue correction,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York. “From a seasonality perspective, September tends to be the window dressing period for fund managers.”</p><p><blockquote>“纽约 CFRA Research 首席投资策略师 Sam Stovall 说：”市场有可能只是准备好经历一场迟来的调整。“从季节性来看，9月份往往是基金经理的窗口期。”</blockquote></p><p> The advent of the highly contagious Delta COVID variant has driven an increase in bearish sentiment regarding the recovery from the global health crisis, and many now expect a substantial correction in stock markets by the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote>高度传染性的Delta COVID变种的出现推动了对全球健康危机复苏的看跌情绪的增加，许多人现在预计股市将在今年年底前大幅调整。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re still in a corrective mode that people have been calling for months,” said Paul Nolte, portfolio manager at Kingsview Asset Management in Chicago. “Economic data points have been missing estimates, and that has coincided with the rise in the Delta variant.”</p><p><blockquote>“芝加哥 Kingsview Asset Management 的投资组合经理保罗-诺尔特（Paul Nolte）说：”我们仍处于人们几个月来一直呼吁的纠正模式。“经济数据点一直低于预期，而这恰逢德尔塔变异毒株的上升”。</blockquote></p><p> The CPI report delivered a lower-than-consensus August reading, a deceleration that supports Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s assertion that spiking inflation is transitory and calms market fears that the central bank will begin tightening monetary policy sooner than expected.</p><p><blockquote>CPI报告公布的8月份数据低于共识，这一放缓支持了美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）的断言，即通胀飙升是暂时的，并平息了市场对央行将比预期更早开始收紧货币政策的担忧。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. Treasury yields dropped on the data, which pressured financial stocks, and investor favor pivoted back to growth at the expense of value. [US/]</p><p><blockquote>数据显示，美国国债收益率下降，给金融股带来压力，投资者的青睐以牺牲价值为代价重新转向增长。[美国/]</blockquote></p><p> The long expected corporate tax hikes, to 26.5% from 21% if Democrats prevail, are coming nearer to fruition with U.S. President Joe Biden’s $3.5 trillion budget package inching closer to passage.</p><p><blockquote>随着美国总统乔-拜登（Joe Biden）的 3.5 万亿美元预算方案逐渐接近通过，人们期待已久的企业税上调幅度将从 21% 提高到 26.5%。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 292.06 points, or 0.84%, to 34,577.57; the S&amp;P 500 lost 25.68 points, or 0.57%, at 4,443.05; and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 67.82 points, or 0.45%, to 15,037.76.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数下跌292.06点，跌幅0.84%，报34,577.57点；标普500下跌25.68点，跌幅0.57%，报4,443.05点；纳斯达克综合指数下跌 67.82 点，跌幅 0.45%，至 15,037.76 点。</blockquote></p><p> All 11 major sectors in the S&amp;P 500 ended the session red, with energy and financials suffering the largest percentage drops.</p><p><blockquote>标普500 11个主要板块全部收红，其中能源和金融板块跌幅最大。</blockquote></p><p> Apple Inc unveiled its iPhone 13 and added new features to its iPad and Apple Watch gadgets in its biggest product launch event of the year as the company faces increased scrutiny in the courts over its business practices. Its shares closed down 1.0% and were the heaviest drag on the S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司在今年最大的产品发布会上推出了 iPhone 13，并为其 iPad 和苹果手表设备添加了新功能，因为该公司面临着法院对其商业行为日益严格的审查。其股价收盘下跌 1.0%，是标普500和纳斯达克最大的拖累。</blockquote></p><p> Intuit Inc gained 1.9% following the TurboTax maker’s announcement that it would acquire digital marketing company Mailchimp for $12 billion.</p><p><blockquote>Intuit Inc 上涨了 1.9%，此前这家涡轮税制造商宣布将以 120 亿美元收购数字营销公司 Mailchimp。</blockquote></p><p> CureVac slid 8.0% after the German biotechnology company canceled manufacturing deals for its experimental COVID-19 vaccine.</p><p><blockquote>德国生物技术公司 CureVac 取消其实验性 COVID-19 疫苗的生产交易后，股价下跌 8.0%。</blockquote></p><p> Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 2.25-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.40-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所下跌发行量与上涨发行量的比例为 2.25 比 1；在纳斯达克，2.40 比 1 的比率有利于下跌者。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 posted two new 52-week highs and two new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 50 new highs and 107 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下两个52周新高和两个新低；纳斯达克综合指数创下50个新高和107个新低。</blockquote></p><p> Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.07 billion shares, compared with the 9.38 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所的成交量为 100.7 亿股，而过去 20 个交易日的平均成交量为 93.8 亿股。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks/u-s-stocks-close-lower-on-worries-over-recovery-corporate-tax-hikes-idUSKBN2GA0W9\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks/u-s-stocks-close-lower-on-worries-over-recovery-corporate-tax-hikes-idUSKBN2GA0W9","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148341685","content_text":"NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street lost ground on Tuesday as economic uncertainties and the increasing likelihood of a corporate tax rate hike dampened investor sentiment and prompted a broad sell-off despite signs of easing inflation.\nOptimism faded throughout the session, reversing an initial rally following the Labor Department’s consumer price index report. All three major U.S. stock indexes ended in negative territory in a reminder that September is a historically rough month for stocks.\nSo far this month the S&P 500 is down nearly 1.8% even as the benchmark index has gained over 18% since the beginning of the year.\n“There is a possibility that the market is simply ready to go through an overdue correction,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York. “From a seasonality perspective, September tends to be the window dressing period for fund managers.”\nThe advent of the highly contagious Delta COVID variant has driven an increase in bearish sentiment regarding the recovery from the global health crisis, and many now expect a substantial correction in stock markets by the end of the year.\n“We’re still in a corrective mode that people have been calling for months,” said Paul Nolte, portfolio manager at Kingsview Asset Management in Chicago. “Economic data points have been missing estimates, and that has coincided with the rise in the Delta variant.”\nThe CPI report delivered a lower-than-consensus August reading, a deceleration that supports Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s assertion that spiking inflation is transitory and calms market fears that the central bank will begin tightening monetary policy sooner than expected.\nU.S. Treasury yields dropped on the data, which pressured financial stocks, and investor favor pivoted back to growth at the expense of value. [US/]\nThe long expected corporate tax hikes, to 26.5% from 21% if Democrats prevail, are coming nearer to fruition with U.S. President Joe Biden’s $3.5 trillion budget package inching closer to passage.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 292.06 points, or 0.84%, to 34,577.57; the S&P 500 lost 25.68 points, or 0.57%, at 4,443.05; and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 67.82 points, or 0.45%, to 15,037.76.\nAll 11 major sectors in the S&P 500 ended the session red, with energy and financials suffering the largest percentage drops.\nApple Inc unveiled its iPhone 13 and added new features to its iPad and Apple Watch gadgets in its biggest product launch event of the year as the company faces increased scrutiny in the courts over its business practices. Its shares closed down 1.0% and were the heaviest drag on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq.\nIntuit Inc gained 1.9% following the TurboTax maker’s announcement that it would acquire digital marketing company Mailchimp for $12 billion.\nCureVac slid 8.0% after the German biotechnology company canceled manufacturing deals for its experimental COVID-19 vaccine.\nDeclining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 2.25-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.40-to-1 ratio favored decliners.\nThe S&P 500 posted two new 52-week highs and two new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 50 new highs and 107 new lows.\nVolume on U.S. exchanges was 10.07 billion shares, compared with the 9.38 billion average over the last 20 trading days.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3511,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":886644511,"gmtCreate":1631589582333,"gmtModify":1631885626115,"author":{"id":"3582016561552186","authorId":"3582016561552186","name":"KMK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef525a9485b7272e73ab442de514d467","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016561552186","authorIdStr":"3582016561552186"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Amc is backkkkk","listText":"Amc is backkkkk","text":"Amc is backkkkk","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/886644511","repostId":"1198740697","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198740697","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631589054,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1198740697?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-14 11:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why GameStop and Other Meme Stocks Jumped Today<blockquote>为什么游戏驿站和其他模因股票今天上涨</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198740697","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"What happened\nIt's hard to know what drives the moves in so-called meme stocks. But after some actua","content":"<p>What happened</p><p><blockquote>发生了什么事</blockquote></p><p> It's hard to know what drives the moves in so-called meme stocks. But after some actual good news for the business helped shares in&nbsp;<b>AMC Entertainment Holdings</b>&nbsp;today, it may just be the others are moving in sympathy. Several other names, including original meme stock<b>GameStop</b>(NYSE:GME)are moving higher. As of 3:50 p.m. EDT, GameStop, apparel retailer&nbsp;<b>Express</b>(NYSE:EXPR), cannabis company&nbsp;<b>Sundial Growers</b>(NASDAQ:SNDL), and&nbsp;<b>SmileDirectClub</b>(NASDAQ:SDC)were moving as follows:</p><p><blockquote>很难知道是什么推动了所谓的模因股票的走势。但在一些实际的好消息帮助该公司股价上涨之后<b>AMC院线控股</b>今天，可能只是其他人在同情中移动。其他几个名称，包括原始模因股票<b>游戏驿站</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：GME）正在走高。截至下午 3:50美国东部时间，游戏驿站，服装零售商<b>表达</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：EXPR），大麻公司<b>日晷生长器</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：SNDL），以及<b>微笑直播俱乐部</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：SDC）的走势如下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>GameStop was up 6.5%.</li>  <li>Express was up 8.5%.</li>  <li>Sundial Growers was up 2.8%.</li>  <li>SmileDirectClub was up 16.3%.</li> </ul> So what</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>游戏驿站上涨6.5%。</li><li>快递上涨8.5%。</li><li>日晷种植者上涨 2.8%。</li><li>SmileDirectClub上涨16.3%。</li></ul>那又怎样</blockquote></p><p> Meme stocks sometimes seem to move just on the whims of social media forums. But after&nbsp;AMC got a potential shot in the arm from news in the movie industry&nbsp;today, some of the retail traders following these names may be focusing back on short interest to bet onpotential short squeezes. SmileDirectClub has over 32% of its float sold short, as of the end of August, according to data from MarketWatch.</p><p><blockquote>模因股票有时似乎只是根据社交媒体论坛的突发奇想而变动。但在 AMC 今天从电影行业新闻中获得潜在的一剂强心针后，一些关注这些名字的散户交易商可能会重新关注空头兴趣，押注潜在的空头挤压。根据 MarketWatch 的数据，截至 8 月底，SmileDirectClub 已有超过 32% 的流通股被卖空。</blockquote></p><p> GameStop still has almost 12.5% of its shares shorted, Express has 5.3%, and Sundial Growers has 26%. Many investors that are betting on these names focus on that metric, hoping that the&nbsp;short-sellers are forced to cover, driving shares higher.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站仍有近 12.5% 的股票被做空，Express 有 5.3%，Sundial Growers 有 26%。许多押注这些名字的投资者都关注这一指标，希望卖空者被迫回补，从而推高股价。</blockquote></p><p> Now what</p><p><blockquote>现在呢</blockquote></p><p> The most interesting bit of recent news from these names came when GameStop reported its quarterly financial update last week. While sales grew by more than 25% compared to the prior-year quarter, GameStop reported another net loss. And investors didn't respond well when the new CEO didn't take questions on&nbsp;the conference call, which only lasted eight minutes.</p><p><blockquote>这些名字最近最有趣的消息来自游戏驿站上周报告的季度财务更新。尽管销售额与去年同期相比增长了 25% 以上，但游戏驿站报告了另一次净亏损。当新任首席执行官没有在电话会议上回答问题时，投资者的反应并不好，这只持续了八分钟。</blockquote></p><p> Another bit of news from GameStop came out the next day in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing. Investment management firm<b>BlackRock</b>(NYSE:BLK)reported on Sept. 9 that it held 6.6% of GameStop shares. That indicates the company has sold about 50% of its holdings since it last reported its holdings in January.</p><p><blockquote>第二天，来自游戏驿站的另一条消息出现在美国证券交易委员会的文件中。投资管理公司<b>贝莱德</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BLK）9月9日报告称，持有游戏驿站6.6%的股份。这表明自 1 月份上次报告持股情况以来，该公司已出售约 50% 的持股。</blockquote></p><p> But the drop in GameStop shares has been recouped with today's move upward. Traders relying on social media may be betting on short squeezes and a retail movement to make money in these names. But serious investors should still focus on business fundamentals. That may be why BlackRock took profits last week.</p><p><blockquote>但游戏驿站股价的下跌已被今天的上涨所弥补。依赖社交媒体的交易者可能押注于空头挤压和零售运动，以这些名称赚钱。但严肃的投资者仍然应该关注商业基本面。这可能就是贝莱德上周获利了结的原因。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why GameStop and Other Meme Stocks Jumped Today<blockquote>为什么游戏驿站和其他模因股票今天上涨</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy GameStop and Other Meme Stocks Jumped Today<blockquote>为什么游戏驿站和其他模因股票今天上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-14 11:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>What happened</p><p><blockquote>发生了什么事</blockquote></p><p> It's hard to know what drives the moves in so-called meme stocks. But after some actual good news for the business helped shares in&nbsp;<b>AMC Entertainment Holdings</b>&nbsp;today, it may just be the others are moving in sympathy. Several other names, including original meme stock<b>GameStop</b>(NYSE:GME)are moving higher. As of 3:50 p.m. EDT, GameStop, apparel retailer&nbsp;<b>Express</b>(NYSE:EXPR), cannabis company&nbsp;<b>Sundial Growers</b>(NASDAQ:SNDL), and&nbsp;<b>SmileDirectClub</b>(NASDAQ:SDC)were moving as follows:</p><p><blockquote>很难知道是什么推动了所谓的模因股票的走势。但在一些实际的好消息帮助该公司股价上涨之后<b>AMC院线控股</b>今天，可能只是其他人在同情中移动。其他几个名称，包括原始模因股票<b>游戏驿站</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：GME）正在走高。截至下午 3:50美国东部时间，游戏驿站，服装零售商<b>表达</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：EXPR），大麻公司<b>日晷生长器</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：SNDL），以及<b>微笑直播俱乐部</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：SDC）的走势如下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>GameStop was up 6.5%.</li>  <li>Express was up 8.5%.</li>  <li>Sundial Growers was up 2.8%.</li>  <li>SmileDirectClub was up 16.3%.</li> </ul> So what</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>游戏驿站上涨6.5%。</li><li>快递上涨8.5%。</li><li>日晷种植者上涨 2.8%。</li><li>SmileDirectClub上涨16.3%。</li></ul>那又怎样</blockquote></p><p> Meme stocks sometimes seem to move just on the whims of social media forums. But after&nbsp;AMC got a potential shot in the arm from news in the movie industry&nbsp;today, some of the retail traders following these names may be focusing back on short interest to bet onpotential short squeezes. SmileDirectClub has over 32% of its float sold short, as of the end of August, according to data from MarketWatch.</p><p><blockquote>模因股票有时似乎只是根据社交媒体论坛的突发奇想而变动。但在 AMC 今天从电影行业新闻中获得潜在的一剂强心针后，一些关注这些名字的散户交易商可能会重新关注空头兴趣，押注潜在的空头挤压。根据 MarketWatch 的数据，截至 8 月底，SmileDirectClub 已有超过 32% 的流通股被卖空。</blockquote></p><p> GameStop still has almost 12.5% of its shares shorted, Express has 5.3%, and Sundial Growers has 26%. Many investors that are betting on these names focus on that metric, hoping that the&nbsp;short-sellers are forced to cover, driving shares higher.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站仍有近 12.5% 的股票被做空，Express 有 5.3%，Sundial Growers 有 26%。许多押注这些名字的投资者都关注这一指标，希望卖空者被迫回补，从而推高股价。</blockquote></p><p> Now what</p><p><blockquote>现在呢</blockquote></p><p> The most interesting bit of recent news from these names came when GameStop reported its quarterly financial update last week. While sales grew by more than 25% compared to the prior-year quarter, GameStop reported another net loss. And investors didn't respond well when the new CEO didn't take questions on&nbsp;the conference call, which only lasted eight minutes.</p><p><blockquote>这些名字最近最有趣的消息来自游戏驿站上周报告的季度财务更新。尽管销售额与去年同期相比增长了 25% 以上，但游戏驿站报告了另一次净亏损。当新任首席执行官没有在电话会议上回答问题时，投资者的反应并不好，这只持续了八分钟。</blockquote></p><p> Another bit of news from GameStop came out the next day in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing. Investment management firm<b>BlackRock</b>(NYSE:BLK)reported on Sept. 9 that it held 6.6% of GameStop shares. That indicates the company has sold about 50% of its holdings since it last reported its holdings in January.</p><p><blockquote>第二天，来自游戏驿站的另一条消息出现在美国证券交易委员会的文件中。投资管理公司<b>贝莱德</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BLK）9月9日报告称，持有游戏驿站6.6%的股份。这表明自 1 月份上次报告持股情况以来，该公司已出售约 50% 的持股。</blockquote></p><p> But the drop in GameStop shares has been recouped with today's move upward. Traders relying on social media may be betting on short squeezes and a retail movement to make money in these names. But serious investors should still focus on business fundamentals. That may be why BlackRock took profits last week.</p><p><blockquote>但游戏驿站股价的下跌已被今天的上涨所弥补。依赖社交媒体的交易者可能押注于空头挤压和零售运动，以这些名称赚钱。但严肃的投资者仍然应该关注商业基本面。这可能就是贝莱德上周获利了结的原因。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/09/13/why-gamestop-stock-jumped-today/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线","GME":"游戏驿站"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/09/13/why-gamestop-stock-jumped-today/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198740697","content_text":"What happened\nIt's hard to know what drives the moves in so-called meme stocks. But after some actual good news for the business helped shares in AMC Entertainment Holdings today, it may just be the others are moving in sympathy. Several other names, including original meme stockGameStop(NYSE:GME)are moving higher. As of 3:50 p.m. EDT, GameStop, apparel retailer Express(NYSE:EXPR), cannabis company Sundial Growers(NASDAQ:SNDL), and SmileDirectClub(NASDAQ:SDC)were moving as follows:\n\nGameStop was up 6.5%.\nExpress was up 8.5%.\nSundial Growers was up 2.8%.\nSmileDirectClub was up 16.3%.\n\nSo what\nMeme stocks sometimes seem to move just on the whims of social media forums. But after AMC got a potential shot in the arm from news in the movie industry today, some of the retail traders following these names may be focusing back on short interest to bet onpotential short squeezes. SmileDirectClub has over 32% of its float sold short, as of the end of August, according to data from MarketWatch.\nGameStop still has almost 12.5% of its shares shorted, Express has 5.3%, and Sundial Growers has 26%. Many investors that are betting on these names focus on that metric, hoping that the short-sellers are forced to cover, driving shares higher.\nNow what\nThe most interesting bit of recent news from these names came when GameStop reported its quarterly financial update last week. While sales grew by more than 25% compared to the prior-year quarter, GameStop reported another net loss. And investors didn't respond well when the new CEO didn't take questions on the conference call, which only lasted eight minutes.\nAnother bit of news from GameStop came out the next day in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing. Investment management firmBlackRock(NYSE:BLK)reported on Sept. 9 that it held 6.6% of GameStop shares. That indicates the company has sold about 50% of its holdings since it last reported its holdings in January.\nBut the drop in GameStop shares has been recouped with today's move upward. Traders relying on social media may be betting on short squeezes and a retail movement to make money in these names. But serious investors should still focus on business fundamentals. That may be why BlackRock took profits last week.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GME":0.9,"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3634,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":883081519,"gmtCreate":1631189374331,"gmtModify":1631885626130,"author":{"id":"3582016561552186","authorId":"3582016561552186","name":"KMK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef525a9485b7272e73ab442de514d467","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016561552186","authorIdStr":"3582016561552186"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Plz like","listText":"Plz like","text":"Plz like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/883081519","repostId":"2166312201","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2366,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":880333801,"gmtCreate":1631018018803,"gmtModify":1631885626143,"author":{"id":"3582016561552186","authorId":"3582016561552186","name":"KMK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef525a9485b7272e73ab442de514d467","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016561552186","authorIdStr":"3582016561552186"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Plz like","listText":"Plz like","text":"Plz like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880333801","repostId":"1130130857","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130130857","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631007146,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1130130857?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-07 17:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Strategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?<blockquote>策略师表示，今年秋天股市可能会陷入困境。现在买什么？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130130857","media":"Barron's","summary":"What a year this has been for the markets!Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and  a mostly receding pandemic, theS&P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.Tailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnin","content":"<p>What a year this has been for the markets! Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and (until recently) a mostly receding pandemic, theS&amp;P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.</p><p><blockquote>对于市场来说，这是多么美好的一年啊!在货币和财政刺激、经济和盈利增长以及（直到最近）疫情基本消退的推动下，标准普尔 500 指数上涨了 20%，连续七个月上涨，并一路创下 50 多个新高。此外，去年市场从 2020 年 3 月的低点反弹了 68%。</blockquote></p><p> Tailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnings growth are likely to decelerate through the end of the year. What’s more, theFederal Reserve has all but promised to start tapering its bond buyingin coming months, and the Biden administration has proposed hiking corporate and personal tax rates. None of this is apt to sit well with holders of increasingly pricey shares.</p><p><blockquote>顺风依然存在，但逆风现在迫在眉睫，可能会减缓股市的上涨速度。刺激支出已见顶，经济和企业盈利增长可能会在今年年底放缓。更重要的是，美联储几乎承诺在未来几个月开始缩减债券购买规模，拜登政府也提议提高企业和个人税率。对于越来越昂贵的股票持有者来说，这些都不太可能满意。</blockquote></p><p> In other words,brace for a volatile fallin which conflicting forces buffet stocks, bonds, and investors. “The everything rally is behind us,” says Saira Malik, chief investment officer of global equities at Nuveen. “It’s not going to be a sharply rising economic tide that lifts all boats from here.”</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，做好准备迎接波动性下跌，这相互矛盾地推动巴菲特股票、债券和投资者。“Nuveen 全球股票首席投资官赛拉-马利克（Saira Malik）说：”万物反弹已经过去。“这不会是一股急剧上涨的经济潮流，让所有船只都离开这里”。</blockquote></p><p> That’s the general consensus among the six market strategists and chief investment officers whom<i>Barron’s</i>recently consulted. All see the S&amp;P 500 ending the year near Thursday’s close of 4536. Their average target: 4585.</p><p><blockquote>这是六位市场策略师和首席投资官的普遍共识。<i>巴伦</i>最近咨询过。所有人都看到标普500在周四收盘价 4536 点附近收盘。他们的平均目标：4585。</blockquote></p><p> Next year’s gains look muted, as well, relative to recent trends. The group expects the S&amp;P 500 to tack on another 6% in 2022, rising to about 4800.</p><p><blockquote>与最近的趋势相比，明年的涨幅也显得微不足道。该集团预计 2022 年标普500将再增长 6%，升至 4,800 左右。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb61c7b74b9b0f18a019afb4ac44ad59\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With stocks trading for about 21 times the coming year’s expected earnings,bonds yielding little, and cash yielding less than nothing after accounting for inflation, investors face tough asset-allocation decisions. In place of the “everything rally,” which lifted fast-growing tech stocks, no-growth meme stocks, and the Dogecoins of the digital world, our market watchers recommend focusing on “quality” investments. In equities, that means shares of businesses with solid balance sheets, expanding profit margins, and ample and recurring free cash flow. Even if the averages do little in coming months, these stocks are likely to shine.</p><p><blockquote>由于股票交易价格约为来年预期收益的 21 倍，债券收益率很低，现金收益率在考虑通货膨胀因素后几乎为零，投资者面临着艰难的资产配置决策。我们的市场观察家建议关注 “优质 ”投资，而不是提振快速增长的科技股、停滞不前的备忘录股和数字世界的狗狗币。在股票中，这意味着拥有稳健的资产负债表、不断扩大的利润率以及充足且经常性的自由现金流的企业股票。即使未来几个月平均指数表现不佳，这些股票也可能会大放异彩。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market’s massive rally in the past year was a gift of sorts from the Federal Reserve, which flooded the financial system with money to stave off theeconomic damage wrought by the Covid pandemic. Since March 2020, the U.S. central bank has been buying a combined $120 billion a month of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, while keeping its benchmark federal-funds rate target at 0% to 0.25%. These moves have depressed bond yields and pushed investors into riskier assets, including stocks.</p><p><blockquote>过去一年股市的大幅反弹是美联储的一份礼物，美联储向金融体系注入了大量资金，以避免 Covid 大流行病造成的经济损失。自2020年3月以来，美国央行每月购买总计1200亿美元的美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券，同时将基准联邦基金利率目标维持在0%至0.25%。这些举措压低了债券收益率，并将投资者推向包括股票在内的风险更高的资产。</blockquote></p><p> Fed Chairman Jerome <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">Powell</a> has said that the central bank might begin to wind down, or taper, its emergency asset purchases sometime in the coming quarters, a move that could roil risk assets of all sorts. “For us, it’s very simple: Tapering is tightening,” says Mike Wilson, chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist atMorgan Stanley.“It’s the first step away from maximum accommodation [by the Fed]. They’re being very calculated about it this time, but the bottom line is that it should have a negative effect on equity valuations.”</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">鲍威尔</a>曾表示，央行可能会在未来几个季度的某个时候开始逐步减少或缩减紧急资产购买规模，此举可能会动摇各种风险资产。“摩根士丹利（atMorgan Stanley）首席投资官兼首席美国股票策略师迈克-威尔逊（Mike Wilson）说：”对我们来说，这很简单：缩减规模就是收紧规模。“这是（美联储）远离最大限度宽松的第一步。他们这次对此非常精打细算，但底线是这应该会对股票估值产生负面影响。”</blockquote></p><p> The government’s stimulus spending, too, has peaked, the strategists note. Supplemental federal unemployment benefits of $300 a week expire as of Sept. 6. Although Congress seems likely to pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill this fall, the near-term economic impact will pale in comparison to the multiple rounds of stimulus introduced since March 2020.</p><p><blockquote>战略家们指出，政府的刺激支出也达到了顶峰。每周 300 美元的补充联邦失业救济金将于 9 月 6 日到期。尽管国会似乎可能会在今年秋天通过一项两党基础设施法案，但与2020年3月以来推出的多轮刺激计划相比，近期经济影响将相形见绌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2cb76c498c1c4c980139e3d0514c261\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The bill includes about $550 billion in new spending—a fraction of the trillions authorized by previous laws—and it will be spread out over many years. The short-term boost that infrastructure stimulus will give to consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70% of U.S. growth domestic product, won’t come close to what the economy saw after millions of Americans received checks from the government this past year.</p><p><blockquote>该法案包括约 5500 亿美元的新支出——只是之前法律授权的万亿美元的一小部分——并且将分摊多年。基础设施刺激措施将在短期内对占美国国内生产总值增长近 70% 的消费支出的提振作用，远不及去年数百万美国人收到政府支票后的经济状况。</blockquote></p><p> A budget bill approved by Democrats only should follow the infrastructure bill, and include spending to support Medicare expansion, child-care funding, free community-college tuition, public housing, and climate-related measures, among other party priorities. Congress could vote to lift taxes on corporations and high-earning individuals to offset that spending—another near-term risk to the market.</p><p><blockquote>民主党批准的预算法案只应遵循基础设施法案，并包括支持医疗保险扩张、儿童保育资金、免费社区大学学费、公共住房和气候相关措施的支出，以及其他政党优先事项。国会可能会投票提高对企业和高收入个人的税收，以抵消这笔支出——这是市场面临的另一个近期风险。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6693da658db16059fc99e08a7531675f\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Other politically charged issues likewise could derail equities this fall. Congress needs to pass a debt-ceiling increase to fund the government, and a stop-gap spending bill later this month to avoid a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">Washington</a> shutdown in October.</p><p><blockquote>今年秋天，其他充满政治色彩的问题同样可能导致股市脱轨。国会需要通过提高债务上限来为政府提供资金，并在本月晚些时候通过一项权宜之计支出法案，以避免<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">华盛顿</a>十月关闭。</blockquote></p><p> For now, our market experts are relatively sanguine about the economic impact of the Delta variant of Covid-19. As long as vaccines remain effective in minimizing severe infections that lead to hospitalizations and deaths, the negative effects of the current Covid wave will be limited largely to the travel industry and movie theaters, they say. Wall Street’s base case for the market doesn’t include a renewed wave of lockdowns that would undermine economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>目前，我们的市场专家对新冠肺炎德尔塔变异毒株的经济影响相对乐观。他们说，只要疫苗在最大限度地减少导致住院和死亡的严重感染方面仍然有效，当前Covid浪潮的负面影响将主要局限于旅游业和电影院。华尔街对市场的基本看法并不包括新一波会破坏经济增长的封锁。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation has been a hot topic at the Fed and among investors, partly because it has been running so hot of late. The U.S. consumer price index rose at an annualized 5.4% in both June and July—a spike the Fed calls transitory, although others aren’t so sure. The strategists are taking Powell’s side of the argument; they expect inflation to fall significantly next year. Their forecasts fall between 2.5% and 3.5%, which they consider manageable for consumers and companies, and an acceptable side effect of rapid economic growth. An inflation rate above 2.5%, however, combined with Fed tapering, would mean that now ultralow bond yields should rise.</p><p><blockquote>通货膨胀一直是美联储和投资者的热门话题，部分原因是最近通货膨胀一直非常火爆。美国消费者价格指数在 6 月和 7 月均以年化 5.4% 的速度上涨--美联储的评级是暂时的，尽管其他人并不确定。战略家们站在鲍威尔一边；他们预计明年通货膨胀率将大幅下降。他们的预测降幅在 2.5% 至 3.5% 之间，他们认为这对消费者和企业来说是可控的，也是经济快速增长的可接受的副作用。然而，高于 2.5% 的通胀率，加上美联储缩减规模，意味着现在超低的债券收益率应该会上升。</blockquote></p><p> “We think inflation will continue to run hotter than it has since the financial crisis, but it’s hard for us to see inflation much over 2.5% once many of the reopening-related pressures start to dissipate,” says Michael Fredericks, head of income investing for theBlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group. “So bond yields do need to move up, but that will happen gradually.”</p><p><blockquote>“贝莱德多资产策略集团（BlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group）收入投资主管迈克尔-弗雷德里克斯（Michael Fredericks）说：”我们认为通胀将继续高于金融危机以来的水平，但一旦许多与重新开放相关的压力开始消散，我们就很难看到通胀率远高于2.5%。“因此，债券收益率确实需要上升，但这将是逐步发生的。”</blockquote></p><p> The strategists see the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbing to around 1.65% by year end. That’s about 35 basis points—or hundredths of a percentage point—above current levels, but below the 1.75% that the yield reached at its March 2021 highs. By next year, the 10-year Treasury could yield 2%, the group says. Those aren’t big moves in absolute terms, but they’re meaningful for&nbsp;the bond market—and could be even more so for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>策略师预计，到年底，10年期美国国债收益率将攀升至1.65%左右。这比目前的水平高出约 35 个基点，即百分之一个百分点，但低于 2021 年 3 月高点时达到的 1.75%。该组织表示，到明年，10 年期国债收益率可能达到 2%。从绝对值来看，这些举措并不算大，但对债券市场来说意义重大，对股市来说意义更大。</blockquote></p><p> Rising yields tend to weigh on stock valuations for two reasons. Higher-yielding bonds offer competition to stocks, and companies’ future earnings are worthless in the present when discounting them at a higher rate. Still, a 10-year yield around 2% won’t be enough to knock stock valuations down to pre-Covid levels. Even if yields climb, market strategists see the price/earnings multiple of the S&amp;P 500 holding well above its 30-year average of 16 times forward earnings. The index’s forward P/E topped 23 last fall.</p><p><blockquote>收益率上升往往会给股票估值带来压力，原因有二。收益率较高的债券会给股票带来竞争，如果按较高的利率贴现，公司未来的收益在目前就毫无价值。尽管如此，2% 左右的 10 年期国债收益率仍不足以将股票估值降至 Covid 之前的水平。即使收益率攀升，市场策略师也认为标普500持有的市盈率远高于其 30 年平均水平 16 倍远期市盈率。去年秋天，该指数的远期市盈率突破了 23。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e08d24cb421d7cc13debd76a9c6fea01\" tg-width=\"660\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As long as 10-year Treasury yields stay in the 2% range, the S&amp;P 500 should be able to command a forward P/E in the high teens, strategists say. A return to the 16-times long-term average isn’t in the cards until there is more pressure from much higher yields—or something else that causes stocks to fall.</p><p><blockquote>策略师表示，只要 10 年期国债收益率保持在 2% 范围内，标普500的远期市盈率就应该能够保持在高位。在收益率大幅上升或其他导致股市下跌的因素带来更大压力之前，回到 16 倍的长期平均水平是不可能的。</blockquote></p><p> If yields surge past 2% or 2.25%, investors could start to question equity valuations more seriously, says&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">State</a> Street’schief portfolio strategist, Gaurav Mallik: “We haven’t seen [the 10-year yield] above 2% for some time now, so that’s an important sentiment level for investors.”</p><p><blockquote>他表示，如果收益率飙升至 2% 或 2.25% 以上，投资者可能会开始更认真地质疑股票估值<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">状态</a>Street'schief 投资组合策略师 Gaurav Mallik： “我们已经有一段时间没有看到（10 年期国债收益率）超过 2%，因此这对投资者来说是一个重要的情绪水平。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93ff6490069ab5dc1b4057f1ff7966f3\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Wilson is more concerned, noting that the stock market’s valuation risk is asymmetric: “It’s very unlikely that multiples are going to go up, and there’s a good chance that they go down more than 10% given the deceleration in growth and where we are in the cycle,” he says</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊更担心，他指出股市的估值风险是不对称的： “他说：”考虑到增长放缓和我们在周期中的位置，市盈率不太可能上升，而且很有可能下降 10% 以上。</blockquote></p><p> If 16 to 23 times forward earnings is the range, he adds, “you’re already at the very high end of that. There’s more potential risk than reward.”</p><p><blockquote>他补充说，如果 16 到 23 倍的远期市盈率是这个范围，“你已经处于这个范围的高端了。潜在的风险大于回报”。</blockquote></p><p> Some P/E-multiple compression is baked into all six strategists’ forecasts, heaping greater importance on the path of profit growth. On average, the strategists expect S&amp;P 500 earnings to jump 46% this year, to about $204, after last year’s earnings depression. That could be followed by a more normalized gain of 9% in 2022, to about $222.50.</p><p><blockquote>六位策略师的预测都包含了一些市盈率的压缩，这使得利润增长之路更加重要。在经历了去年的盈利低迷之后，策略师平均预计标普500今年的盈利将跃升 46%，达到约 204 美元。随后，2022 年可能会上涨 9%，达到约 222.50 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> A potential headwind would be a higher federal corporate-tax rate in 2022. The details of Democrats’ spending and taxation plans will be worked out in the coming weeks, and investors can expect to hear a lot more about potential tax increases. Several strategists see a 25% federal rate on corporate profits as a likely compromise figure, above the 21% in place since 2018, but below the 28% sought by the Biden administration.</p><p><blockquote>一个潜在的阻力是 2022 年联邦企业税率的提高。民主党支出和税收计划的细节将在未来几周内制定，投资者有望听到更多关于潜在增税的消息。几位策略师认为，25% 的联邦企业利润率可能是一个妥协数字，高于 2018 年以来的 21%，但低于拜登政府寻求的 28%。</blockquote></p><p> An increase of that magnitude would shave about 5% off S&amp;P 500 earnings next year. The index could drop by a similar amount as the passage of the Democrats’ reconciliation bill nears this fall, but the impact should be limited to that initial correction. As with the tax cuts in December 2017, the change should be a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-time event for the market, some strategists predict.</p><p><blockquote>如此幅度的增长将使标普500明年的盈利减少约 5%。随着民主党和解法案的临近，该指数可能会下降类似的幅度，但影响应仅限于最初的修正。与 2017 年 12 月的减税一样，这一变化应该是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>一些策略师预测，市场的时间事件。</blockquote></p><p> These concerns aside, investors shouldn’t miss the bigger picture: The U.S. economy is in good shape and growing robustly. The strategists expect gross domestic product to rise 6.3% this year and about 4% in 2022. “The cyclical uplift and above-trend growth will continue at least through 2022, and we want to be biased toward assets that have that exposure,” says Mallik.</p><p><blockquote>撇开这些担忧不谈，投资者不应忽视大局： 美国经济状况良好，增长强劲。策略师预计今年国内生产总值将增长6.3%，2022年将增长约4%。“马利克说：”周期性上涨和高于趋势的增长至少将持续到 2022 年，我们希望偏向具有这种风险敞口的资产。</blockquote></p><p>   “We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next. When GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”— Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets  The State Street strategist recommends overweighting materials, financials, and technology in investment portfolios. That approach includes both economically sensitive companies, such as banks and miners, and steady growers in the tech sector.</p><p><blockquote>“今明两年我们的经济将非常火爆。当国内生产总值增长高于平均水平时，价值就会战胜增长，周期性股票会战胜防御性股票。”- Lori Calvasina，加拿大皇家银行资本市场 道富银行策略师建议在投资组合中增持材料、金融和技术。这种方法既包括银行和矿业等经济敏感的公司，也包括科技行业的稳定增长者。</blockquote></p><p> RBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, likewise takes a barbell approach, with both cyclical and growth exposure. Her preferred sectors are energy, financials, and technology.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大皇家银行资本市场（RBC Capital Markets）美国股票策略主管洛里-卡尔瓦西纳（Lori Calvasina）同样采取杠铃策略，同时投资周期性和成长性。她喜欢的行业是能源、金融和科技。</blockquote></p><p> “Valuations are still a lot more attractive in financials and energy than growth [sectors such as technology or consumer discretionary,]” Calvasina says. “The catalyst in the near term is getting out of the current Covid wave... We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next, and traditionally when GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”</p><p><blockquote>“卡尔瓦西纳说：”金融和能源领域的估值仍然比成长型行业（如科技或非必需消费品）更具吸引力。“近期的催化剂是摆脱当前的 Covid 浪潮......今明两年我们将迎来火热的经济，传统上，当 GDP 增长高于平均水平时，价值战胜增长，周期性战胜防御性。”</blockquote></p><p> But the focus on quality will be pivotal, especially moving into the second half of 2022. That’s when the Fed is likely to hike interest rates for the first time in this cycle. By 2023, the economy could return to pre-Covid growth on the order of 2%.</p><p><blockquote>但对质量的关注将是至关重要的，尤其是进入 2022 年下半年。届时美联储可能会在本周期内首次加息。到2023年，经济可能会恢复到新冠疫情前2%左右的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> “The historical playbook is that coming out of a recession, you tend to see low-quality outperformance that lasts about a year, then leadership flips back to high quality,” Calvasina says. “But that transition from low quality back to high quality tends to be very bumpy.”</p><p><blockquote>“卡尔瓦西纳说：”历史的剧本是，从经济衰退中走出来，往往会看到持续一年左右的低质量超越业绩，然后领导层会回到高质量。“但从低质量到高质量的转变往往非常坎坷”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Shopping List for Fall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>秋季购物清单</b></blockquote></p><p> Most strategists favor a combination of economically sensitive stocks and steady growers, including tech shares. Financials should do well, particularly if bond yields rise.</p><p><blockquote>大多数策略师倾向于经济敏感股票和稳定增长股票的组合，包括科技股。金融股应该表现良好，尤其是在债券收益率上升的情况下。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a54c4bd114c1a5f7f700d1fc14d30d8e\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Although stocks with quality attributes have outperformed the market this summer, according to a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a> analysis, the quality factor has lagged since positive vaccine news was first reported last November.</p><p><blockquote>尽管具有质量属性的股票今年夏天的表现优于大盘，但根据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">贝莱德</a>分析认为，自去年11月首次报道积极的疫苗消息以来，质量因素一直滞后。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re moving into a mid-cycle environment, when underlying economic growth remains strong but momentum begins to decelerate,” BlackRock’s Fredericks says. “Our research shows that quality stocks perform particularly well in such a period.”</p><p><blockquote>“贝莱德（BlackRock）的弗雷德里克斯（Fredericks）说：”我们正在进入一个周期中期环境，此时潜在的经济增长依然强劲，但势头开始放缓。“我们的研究表明，优质股票在这样的时期表现尤为出色。”</blockquote></p><p> He recommends overweighting profitable technology companies; financials, including banks, and consumer staples and industrials with those quality characteristics.</p><p><blockquote>他建议增持盈利的科技公司；金融业，包括银行，以及具有这些质量特征的必需消费品和工业。</blockquote></p><p> For <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>’s head of equity strategy, Christopher Harvey, a mix of post-pandemic beneficiaries and defensive exposure is the way to go. He constructed a basket of stocks with lower-than-average volatility—which should outperform during periods of market uncertainty or stress this fall—and high “Covid beta,” or sensitivity to good or bad news about the pandemic. One requirement; The stocks had to be rated the equivalent of Buy by Wells Fargo’s equity analysts.</p><p><blockquote>为了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>该公司的股票策略主管克里斯托弗-哈维（Christopher Harvey）认为，大流行后的受益者和防御性敞口相结合才是最佳选择。他构建了一篮子波动性低于平均水平的股票--在今年秋季市场不确定或压力时期，这些股票的表现应该会优于平均水平--并且 “Covid贝塔值 ”较高，即对大流行病的好消息或坏消息敏感。一个要求；富国银行的股票分析师不得不将这些股票评级相当于买入。</blockquote></p><p> “There’s near-term economic uncertainty, interest-rate uncertainty, and Covid risk, and generally we’re in a seasonally weaker part of the year around September,” says Harvey. “If we can balance low vol and high Covid beta, we can mitigate a lot of the upcoming uncertainty and volatility around timing of several of those catalysts. Longer-term, though, we still want to have that [reopening exposure.]”</p><p><blockquote>“哈维说：”近期存在经济不确定性、利率不确定性和 Covid 风险，一般来说，9 月前后我们正处于一年中季节性疲软的时期。“如果我们能在低体积和高 Covid beta 之间取得平衡，我们就能减轻即将到来的许多不确定性和波动性，这些催化剂的时间安排。不过，从长远来看，我们仍然希望有这种[重新开放的风险敞口]”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Harvey’s list of low-volatility stocks with high Covid beta includesApple(AAPL),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>(BAC),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">Northern</a> Trust(NTRS),Lowe’s(LOW),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a> Holdings(IQV), andMasco(MAS).</p><p><blockquote>哈维列出的高Covid贝塔值低波动性股票名单包括苹果公司（AAPL）、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>（BAC），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">北方的</a>信托(NTRS)、劳氏(LOW)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">伊克维亚</a>控股公司 (IQV) 和马斯科 (MAS)。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, banks are the most frequently recommended group for the months ahead. TheInvesco KBW Bankexchange-traded fund (KBWB) provides broad exposure to the sector in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，银行是未来几个月最常被推荐的群体。景顺 KBW 银行交易所交易基金 (KBWB) 为美国该行业提供广泛的投资。</blockquote></p><p> “We like the valuations [and] credit quality; they are now allowed to buy back shares and increase dividends, and there’s higher Covid beta,” says Harvey.</p><p><blockquote>“哈维说：”我们喜欢估值[和]信用质量；他们现在被允许回购股票并增加股息，而且 Covid 贝塔系数也更高。</blockquote></p><p> Cheaper valuations mean less potential downside in a market correction. And, contrary to much of the rest of the stock market, higher interest rates would be a tailwind for the banks, which could then charge more for loans.</p><p><blockquote>更便宜的估值意味着市场调整中潜在的下行空间较小。而且，与股票市场的其他大部分相反，更高的利率将成为银行的推动力，然后银行可能会收取更高的贷款费用。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">Healthcare</a> stocks also have some fans. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">Healthcare</a> has both defensive and growth attributes to it,” Wilson says. “You’re paying a lot less per unit of growth in healthcare today than you are in other sectors. So we think it provides good balance in this market when we’re worried about valuation.” Health insurerHumana(HUM) makes Wilson’s “Fresh Money Buy List” of stocks Buy-rated by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a> analysts and fitting his macro views.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">医疗保健</a>股票也有一些粉丝。“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">医疗保健</a>威尔逊说。“如今，与其他行业相比，医疗保健行业每单位增长的成本要低得多。因此，我们认为，当我们担心估值时，医疗保健行业为这个市场提供了良好的平衡。”Health insurerHumana (HUM) 将威尔逊的 “新鲜资金买入清单”评级为买入<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师并符合他的宏观观点。</blockquote></p><p> Nuveen’s Malik is also looking toward health care for relatively underpriced growth exposure, namely in the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology groups. She points toSeagen(SGEN), which is focused on oncology drugs and could be an attractive acquisition target for a pharma giant.</p><p><blockquote>Nuveen 的 Malik 也将目光投向了医疗保健行业，即制药和生物技术行业，以获得价格相对较低的增长机会。她指出，Seagen (SGEN) 专注于肿瘤药物，可能是制药巨头有吸引力的收购目标。</blockquote></p><p> Malik also likesAbbVie(ABBV) which trades at an undemanding eight times forward earnings and sports a 4.7% dividend yield. The coming expiration of patents on its blockbuster anti-inflammatory drug Humira has kept some investors away, but Malik is confident that management can limit the damage and sees promising drugs in development at the $200 billion company.</p><p><blockquote>马利克还喜欢艾伯维 (ABBV)，该公司的远期市盈率为 8 倍，股息收益率为 4.7%。其重磅抗炎药修美乐的专利即将到期，这让一些投资者望而却步，但马利克相信管理层可以限制损害，并看到这家价值 2000 亿美元的公司正在开发有前途的药物。</blockquote></p><p> Both stocks have had a tough time in recent days. Seagen fell more than 8% last week, to around $152, on news that its co-founder and CEO sold a large number of shares recently. AndAbbVietanked 7% Wednesday, to $112.27, after the Food and Drug Administration required new warning labels for JAK inhibitors, a type of anti-rheumatoid drug that includes one of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">AbbVie</a>’s most promising post-Humira products.</p><p><blockquote>这两只股票最近几天都经历了艰难的时期。Seagen 上周下跌超过 8%，至 152 美元左右，原因是有消息称其联合创始人兼首席执行官最近出售了大量股票。周三，艾伯维股价下跌 7%，至 112.27 美元，此前美国食品和药物管理局要求 JAK 抑制剂贴上新的警告标签，JAK 抑制剂是一种抗类风湿药物，包括以下成分之一<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">艾伯维</a>最有前途的后修美乐产品。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>(PFE),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>(AXP),Johnson &amp; Johnson(JNJ), andCisco Systems(CSCO) are other S&amp;P 500 members that pass a<i>Barron’s</i>screen for quality attributes.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a>（PFE），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">美国运通</a>(AXP)、强生公司 (JNJ) 和思科系统公司 (CSCO) 是其他通过<i>巴伦</i>质量属性屏幕。</blockquote></p><p> After a year of steady gains, investors might be reminded this fall that stocks can also decline, as growth momentum and policy support begin to fade. But underlying economic strength supports buying the dip, should the market drop from its highs. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> be more selective. And go with quality.</p><p><blockquote>经过一年的稳步上涨后，今年秋天投资者可能会被提醒，随着增长势头和政策支持开始消退，股市也可能下跌。但如果市场从高点回落，潜在的经济实力支持逢低买入。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>更有选择性。追求质量。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Strategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?<blockquote>策略师表示，今年秋天股市可能会陷入困境。现在买什么？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStrategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?<blockquote>策略师表示，今年秋天股市可能会陷入困境。现在买什么？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-07 17:32</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>What a year this has been for the markets! Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and (until recently) a mostly receding pandemic, theS&amp;P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.</p><p><blockquote>对于市场来说，这是多么美好的一年啊!在货币和财政刺激、经济和盈利增长以及（直到最近）疫情基本消退的推动下，标准普尔 500 指数上涨了 20%，连续七个月上涨，并一路创下 50 多个新高。此外，去年市场从 2020 年 3 月的低点反弹了 68%。</blockquote></p><p> Tailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnings growth are likely to decelerate through the end of the year. What’s more, theFederal Reserve has all but promised to start tapering its bond buyingin coming months, and the Biden administration has proposed hiking corporate and personal tax rates. None of this is apt to sit well with holders of increasingly pricey shares.</p><p><blockquote>顺风依然存在，但逆风现在迫在眉睫，可能会减缓股市的上涨速度。刺激支出已见顶，经济和企业盈利增长可能会在今年年底放缓。更重要的是，美联储几乎承诺在未来几个月开始缩减债券购买规模，拜登政府也提议提高企业和个人税率。对于越来越昂贵的股票持有者来说，这些都不太可能满意。</blockquote></p><p> In other words,brace for a volatile fallin which conflicting forces buffet stocks, bonds, and investors. “The everything rally is behind us,” says Saira Malik, chief investment officer of global equities at Nuveen. “It’s not going to be a sharply rising economic tide that lifts all boats from here.”</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，做好准备迎接波动性下跌，这相互矛盾地推动巴菲特股票、债券和投资者。“Nuveen 全球股票首席投资官赛拉-马利克（Saira Malik）说：”万物反弹已经过去。“这不会是一股急剧上涨的经济潮流，让所有船只都离开这里”。</blockquote></p><p> That’s the general consensus among the six market strategists and chief investment officers whom<i>Barron’s</i>recently consulted. All see the S&amp;P 500 ending the year near Thursday’s close of 4536. Their average target: 4585.</p><p><blockquote>这是六位市场策略师和首席投资官的普遍共识。<i>巴伦</i>最近咨询过。所有人都看到标普500在周四收盘价 4536 点附近收盘。他们的平均目标：4585。</blockquote></p><p> Next year’s gains look muted, as well, relative to recent trends. The group expects the S&amp;P 500 to tack on another 6% in 2022, rising to about 4800.</p><p><blockquote>与最近的趋势相比，明年的涨幅也显得微不足道。该集团预计 2022 年标普500将再增长 6%，升至 4,800 左右。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb61c7b74b9b0f18a019afb4ac44ad59\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With stocks trading for about 21 times the coming year’s expected earnings,bonds yielding little, and cash yielding less than nothing after accounting for inflation, investors face tough asset-allocation decisions. In place of the “everything rally,” which lifted fast-growing tech stocks, no-growth meme stocks, and the Dogecoins of the digital world, our market watchers recommend focusing on “quality” investments. In equities, that means shares of businesses with solid balance sheets, expanding profit margins, and ample and recurring free cash flow. Even if the averages do little in coming months, these stocks are likely to shine.</p><p><blockquote>由于股票交易价格约为来年预期收益的 21 倍，债券收益率很低，现金收益率在考虑通货膨胀因素后几乎为零，投资者面临着艰难的资产配置决策。我们的市场观察家建议关注 “优质 ”投资，而不是提振快速增长的科技股、停滞不前的备忘录股和数字世界的狗狗币。在股票中，这意味着拥有稳健的资产负债表、不断扩大的利润率以及充足且经常性的自由现金流的企业股票。即使未来几个月平均指数表现不佳，这些股票也可能会大放异彩。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market’s massive rally in the past year was a gift of sorts from the Federal Reserve, which flooded the financial system with money to stave off theeconomic damage wrought by the Covid pandemic. Since March 2020, the U.S. central bank has been buying a combined $120 billion a month of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, while keeping its benchmark federal-funds rate target at 0% to 0.25%. These moves have depressed bond yields and pushed investors into riskier assets, including stocks.</p><p><blockquote>过去一年股市的大幅反弹是美联储的一份礼物，美联储向金融体系注入了大量资金，以避免 Covid 大流行病造成的经济损失。自2020年3月以来，美国央行每月购买总计1200亿美元的美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券，同时将基准联邦基金利率目标维持在0%至0.25%。这些举措压低了债券收益率，并将投资者推向包括股票在内的风险更高的资产。</blockquote></p><p> Fed Chairman Jerome <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">Powell</a> has said that the central bank might begin to wind down, or taper, its emergency asset purchases sometime in the coming quarters, a move that could roil risk assets of all sorts. “For us, it’s very simple: Tapering is tightening,” says Mike Wilson, chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist atMorgan Stanley.“It’s the first step away from maximum accommodation [by the Fed]. They’re being very calculated about it this time, but the bottom line is that it should have a negative effect on equity valuations.”</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">鲍威尔</a>曾表示，央行可能会在未来几个季度的某个时候开始逐步减少或缩减紧急资产购买规模，此举可能会动摇各种风险资产。“摩根士丹利（atMorgan Stanley）首席投资官兼首席美国股票策略师迈克-威尔逊（Mike Wilson）说：”对我们来说，这很简单：缩减规模就是收紧规模。“这是（美联储）远离最大限度宽松的第一步。他们这次对此非常精打细算，但底线是这应该会对股票估值产生负面影响。”</blockquote></p><p> The government’s stimulus spending, too, has peaked, the strategists note. Supplemental federal unemployment benefits of $300 a week expire as of Sept. 6. Although Congress seems likely to pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill this fall, the near-term economic impact will pale in comparison to the multiple rounds of stimulus introduced since March 2020.</p><p><blockquote>战略家们指出，政府的刺激支出也达到了顶峰。每周 300 美元的补充联邦失业救济金将于 9 月 6 日到期。尽管国会似乎可能会在今年秋天通过一项两党基础设施法案，但与2020年3月以来推出的多轮刺激计划相比，近期经济影响将相形见绌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2cb76c498c1c4c980139e3d0514c261\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The bill includes about $550 billion in new spending—a fraction of the trillions authorized by previous laws—and it will be spread out over many years. The short-term boost that infrastructure stimulus will give to consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70% of U.S. growth domestic product, won’t come close to what the economy saw after millions of Americans received checks from the government this past year.</p><p><blockquote>该法案包括约 5500 亿美元的新支出——只是之前法律授权的万亿美元的一小部分——并且将分摊多年。基础设施刺激措施将在短期内对占美国国内生产总值增长近 70% 的消费支出的提振作用，远不及去年数百万美国人收到政府支票后的经济状况。</blockquote></p><p> A budget bill approved by Democrats only should follow the infrastructure bill, and include spending to support Medicare expansion, child-care funding, free community-college tuition, public housing, and climate-related measures, among other party priorities. Congress could vote to lift taxes on corporations and high-earning individuals to offset that spending—another near-term risk to the market.</p><p><blockquote>民主党批准的预算法案只应遵循基础设施法案，并包括支持医疗保险扩张、儿童保育资金、免费社区大学学费、公共住房和气候相关措施的支出，以及其他政党优先事项。国会可能会投票提高对企业和高收入个人的税收，以抵消这笔支出——这是市场面临的另一个近期风险。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6693da658db16059fc99e08a7531675f\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Other politically charged issues likewise could derail equities this fall. Congress needs to pass a debt-ceiling increase to fund the government, and a stop-gap spending bill later this month to avoid a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">Washington</a> shutdown in October.</p><p><blockquote>今年秋天，其他充满政治色彩的问题同样可能导致股市脱轨。国会需要通过提高债务上限来为政府提供资金，并在本月晚些时候通过一项权宜之计支出法案，以避免<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">华盛顿</a>十月关闭。</blockquote></p><p> For now, our market experts are relatively sanguine about the economic impact of the Delta variant of Covid-19. As long as vaccines remain effective in minimizing severe infections that lead to hospitalizations and deaths, the negative effects of the current Covid wave will be limited largely to the travel industry and movie theaters, they say. Wall Street’s base case for the market doesn’t include a renewed wave of lockdowns that would undermine economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>目前，我们的市场专家对新冠肺炎德尔塔变异毒株的经济影响相对乐观。他们说，只要疫苗在最大限度地减少导致住院和死亡的严重感染方面仍然有效，当前Covid浪潮的负面影响将主要局限于旅游业和电影院。华尔街对市场的基本看法并不包括新一波会破坏经济增长的封锁。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation has been a hot topic at the Fed and among investors, partly because it has been running so hot of late. The U.S. consumer price index rose at an annualized 5.4% in both June and July—a spike the Fed calls transitory, although others aren’t so sure. The strategists are taking Powell’s side of the argument; they expect inflation to fall significantly next year. Their forecasts fall between 2.5% and 3.5%, which they consider manageable for consumers and companies, and an acceptable side effect of rapid economic growth. An inflation rate above 2.5%, however, combined with Fed tapering, would mean that now ultralow bond yields should rise.</p><p><blockquote>通货膨胀一直是美联储和投资者的热门话题，部分原因是最近通货膨胀一直非常火爆。美国消费者价格指数在 6 月和 7 月均以年化 5.4% 的速度上涨--美联储的评级是暂时的，尽管其他人并不确定。战略家们站在鲍威尔一边；他们预计明年通货膨胀率将大幅下降。他们的预测降幅在 2.5% 至 3.5% 之间，他们认为这对消费者和企业来说是可控的，也是经济快速增长的可接受的副作用。然而，高于 2.5% 的通胀率，加上美联储缩减规模，意味着现在超低的债券收益率应该会上升。</blockquote></p><p> “We think inflation will continue to run hotter than it has since the financial crisis, but it’s hard for us to see inflation much over 2.5% once many of the reopening-related pressures start to dissipate,” says Michael Fredericks, head of income investing for theBlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group. “So bond yields do need to move up, but that will happen gradually.”</p><p><blockquote>“贝莱德多资产策略集团（BlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group）收入投资主管迈克尔-弗雷德里克斯（Michael Fredericks）说：”我们认为通胀将继续高于金融危机以来的水平，但一旦许多与重新开放相关的压力开始消散，我们就很难看到通胀率远高于2.5%。“因此，债券收益率确实需要上升，但这将是逐步发生的。”</blockquote></p><p> The strategists see the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbing to around 1.65% by year end. That’s about 35 basis points—or hundredths of a percentage point—above current levels, but below the 1.75% that the yield reached at its March 2021 highs. By next year, the 10-year Treasury could yield 2%, the group says. Those aren’t big moves in absolute terms, but they’re meaningful for&nbsp;the bond market—and could be even more so for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>策略师预计，到年底，10年期美国国债收益率将攀升至1.65%左右。这比目前的水平高出约 35 个基点，即百分之一个百分点，但低于 2021 年 3 月高点时达到的 1.75%。该组织表示，到明年，10 年期国债收益率可能达到 2%。从绝对值来看，这些举措并不算大，但对债券市场来说意义重大，对股市来说意义更大。</blockquote></p><p> Rising yields tend to weigh on stock valuations for two reasons. Higher-yielding bonds offer competition to stocks, and companies’ future earnings are worthless in the present when discounting them at a higher rate. Still, a 10-year yield around 2% won’t be enough to knock stock valuations down to pre-Covid levels. Even if yields climb, market strategists see the price/earnings multiple of the S&amp;P 500 holding well above its 30-year average of 16 times forward earnings. The index’s forward P/E topped 23 last fall.</p><p><blockquote>收益率上升往往会给股票估值带来压力，原因有二。收益率较高的债券会给股票带来竞争，如果按较高的利率贴现，公司未来的收益在目前就毫无价值。尽管如此，2% 左右的 10 年期国债收益率仍不足以将股票估值降至 Covid 之前的水平。即使收益率攀升，市场策略师也认为标普500持有的市盈率远高于其 30 年平均水平 16 倍远期市盈率。去年秋天，该指数的远期市盈率突破了 23。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e08d24cb421d7cc13debd76a9c6fea01\" tg-width=\"660\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As long as 10-year Treasury yields stay in the 2% range, the S&amp;P 500 should be able to command a forward P/E in the high teens, strategists say. A return to the 16-times long-term average isn’t in the cards until there is more pressure from much higher yields—or something else that causes stocks to fall.</p><p><blockquote>策略师表示，只要 10 年期国债收益率保持在 2% 范围内，标普500的远期市盈率就应该能够保持在高位。在收益率大幅上升或其他导致股市下跌的因素带来更大压力之前，回到 16 倍的长期平均水平是不可能的。</blockquote></p><p> If yields surge past 2% or 2.25%, investors could start to question equity valuations more seriously, says&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">State</a> Street’schief portfolio strategist, Gaurav Mallik: “We haven’t seen [the 10-year yield] above 2% for some time now, so that’s an important sentiment level for investors.”</p><p><blockquote>他表示，如果收益率飙升至 2% 或 2.25% 以上，投资者可能会开始更认真地质疑股票估值<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">状态</a>Street'schief 投资组合策略师 Gaurav Mallik： “我们已经有一段时间没有看到（10 年期国债收益率）超过 2%，因此这对投资者来说是一个重要的情绪水平。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93ff6490069ab5dc1b4057f1ff7966f3\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Wilson is more concerned, noting that the stock market’s valuation risk is asymmetric: “It’s very unlikely that multiples are going to go up, and there’s a good chance that they go down more than 10% given the deceleration in growth and where we are in the cycle,” he says</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊更担心，他指出股市的估值风险是不对称的： “他说：”考虑到增长放缓和我们在周期中的位置，市盈率不太可能上升，而且很有可能下降 10% 以上。</blockquote></p><p> If 16 to 23 times forward earnings is the range, he adds, “you’re already at the very high end of that. There’s more potential risk than reward.”</p><p><blockquote>他补充说，如果 16 到 23 倍的远期市盈率是这个范围，“你已经处于这个范围的高端了。潜在的风险大于回报”。</blockquote></p><p> Some P/E-multiple compression is baked into all six strategists’ forecasts, heaping greater importance on the path of profit growth. On average, the strategists expect S&amp;P 500 earnings to jump 46% this year, to about $204, after last year’s earnings depression. That could be followed by a more normalized gain of 9% in 2022, to about $222.50.</p><p><blockquote>六位策略师的预测都包含了一些市盈率的压缩，这使得利润增长之路更加重要。在经历了去年的盈利低迷之后，策略师平均预计标普500今年的盈利将跃升 46%，达到约 204 美元。随后，2022 年可能会上涨 9%，达到约 222.50 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> A potential headwind would be a higher federal corporate-tax rate in 2022. The details of Democrats’ spending and taxation plans will be worked out in the coming weeks, and investors can expect to hear a lot more about potential tax increases. Several strategists see a 25% federal rate on corporate profits as a likely compromise figure, above the 21% in place since 2018, but below the 28% sought by the Biden administration.</p><p><blockquote>一个潜在的阻力是 2022 年联邦企业税率的提高。民主党支出和税收计划的细节将在未来几周内制定，投资者有望听到更多关于潜在增税的消息。几位策略师认为，25% 的联邦企业利润率可能是一个妥协数字，高于 2018 年以来的 21%，但低于拜登政府寻求的 28%。</blockquote></p><p> An increase of that magnitude would shave about 5% off S&amp;P 500 earnings next year. The index could drop by a similar amount as the passage of the Democrats’ reconciliation bill nears this fall, but the impact should be limited to that initial correction. As with the tax cuts in December 2017, the change should be a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-time event for the market, some strategists predict.</p><p><blockquote>如此幅度的增长将使标普500明年的盈利减少约 5%。随着民主党和解法案的临近，该指数可能会下降类似的幅度，但影响应仅限于最初的修正。与 2017 年 12 月的减税一样，这一变化应该是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>一些策略师预测，市场的时间事件。</blockquote></p><p> These concerns aside, investors shouldn’t miss the bigger picture: The U.S. economy is in good shape and growing robustly. The strategists expect gross domestic product to rise 6.3% this year and about 4% in 2022. “The cyclical uplift and above-trend growth will continue at least through 2022, and we want to be biased toward assets that have that exposure,” says Mallik.</p><p><blockquote>撇开这些担忧不谈，投资者不应忽视大局： 美国经济状况良好，增长强劲。策略师预计今年国内生产总值将增长6.3%，2022年将增长约4%。“马利克说：”周期性上涨和高于趋势的增长至少将持续到 2022 年，我们希望偏向具有这种风险敞口的资产。</blockquote></p><p>   “We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next. When GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”— Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets  The State Street strategist recommends overweighting materials, financials, and technology in investment portfolios. That approach includes both economically sensitive companies, such as banks and miners, and steady growers in the tech sector.</p><p><blockquote>“今明两年我们的经济将非常火爆。当国内生产总值增长高于平均水平时，价值就会战胜增长，周期性股票会战胜防御性股票。”- Lori Calvasina，加拿大皇家银行资本市场 道富银行策略师建议在投资组合中增持材料、金融和技术。这种方法既包括银行和矿业等经济敏感的公司，也包括科技行业的稳定增长者。</blockquote></p><p> RBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, likewise takes a barbell approach, with both cyclical and growth exposure. Her preferred sectors are energy, financials, and technology.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大皇家银行资本市场（RBC Capital Markets）美国股票策略主管洛里-卡尔瓦西纳（Lori Calvasina）同样采取杠铃策略，同时投资周期性和成长性。她喜欢的行业是能源、金融和科技。</blockquote></p><p> “Valuations are still a lot more attractive in financials and energy than growth [sectors such as technology or consumer discretionary,]” Calvasina says. “The catalyst in the near term is getting out of the current Covid wave... We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next, and traditionally when GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”</p><p><blockquote>“卡尔瓦西纳说：”金融和能源领域的估值仍然比成长型行业（如科技或非必需消费品）更具吸引力。“近期的催化剂是摆脱当前的 Covid 浪潮......今明两年我们将迎来火热的经济，传统上，当 GDP 增长高于平均水平时，价值战胜增长，周期性战胜防御性。”</blockquote></p><p> But the focus on quality will be pivotal, especially moving into the second half of 2022. That’s when the Fed is likely to hike interest rates for the first time in this cycle. By 2023, the economy could return to pre-Covid growth on the order of 2%.</p><p><blockquote>但对质量的关注将是至关重要的，尤其是进入 2022 年下半年。届时美联储可能会在本周期内首次加息。到2023年，经济可能会恢复到新冠疫情前2%左右的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> “The historical playbook is that coming out of a recession, you tend to see low-quality outperformance that lasts about a year, then leadership flips back to high quality,” Calvasina says. “But that transition from low quality back to high quality tends to be very bumpy.”</p><p><blockquote>“卡尔瓦西纳说：”历史的剧本是，从经济衰退中走出来，往往会看到持续一年左右的低质量超越业绩，然后领导层会回到高质量。“但从低质量到高质量的转变往往非常坎坷”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Shopping List for Fall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>秋季购物清单</b></blockquote></p><p> Most strategists favor a combination of economically sensitive stocks and steady growers, including tech shares. Financials should do well, particularly if bond yields rise.</p><p><blockquote>大多数策略师倾向于经济敏感股票和稳定增长股票的组合，包括科技股。金融股应该表现良好，尤其是在债券收益率上升的情况下。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a54c4bd114c1a5f7f700d1fc14d30d8e\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Although stocks with quality attributes have outperformed the market this summer, according to a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a> analysis, the quality factor has lagged since positive vaccine news was first reported last November.</p><p><blockquote>尽管具有质量属性的股票今年夏天的表现优于大盘，但根据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">贝莱德</a>分析认为，自去年11月首次报道积极的疫苗消息以来，质量因素一直滞后。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re moving into a mid-cycle environment, when underlying economic growth remains strong but momentum begins to decelerate,” BlackRock’s Fredericks says. “Our research shows that quality stocks perform particularly well in such a period.”</p><p><blockquote>“贝莱德（BlackRock）的弗雷德里克斯（Fredericks）说：”我们正在进入一个周期中期环境，此时潜在的经济增长依然强劲，但势头开始放缓。“我们的研究表明，优质股票在这样的时期表现尤为出色。”</blockquote></p><p> He recommends overweighting profitable technology companies; financials, including banks, and consumer staples and industrials with those quality characteristics.</p><p><blockquote>他建议增持盈利的科技公司；金融业，包括银行，以及具有这些质量特征的必需消费品和工业。</blockquote></p><p> For <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>’s head of equity strategy, Christopher Harvey, a mix of post-pandemic beneficiaries and defensive exposure is the way to go. He constructed a basket of stocks with lower-than-average volatility—which should outperform during periods of market uncertainty or stress this fall—and high “Covid beta,” or sensitivity to good or bad news about the pandemic. One requirement; The stocks had to be rated the equivalent of Buy by Wells Fargo’s equity analysts.</p><p><blockquote>为了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>该公司的股票策略主管克里斯托弗-哈维（Christopher Harvey）认为，大流行后的受益者和防御性敞口相结合才是最佳选择。他构建了一篮子波动性低于平均水平的股票--在今年秋季市场不确定或压力时期，这些股票的表现应该会优于平均水平--并且 “Covid贝塔值 ”较高，即对大流行病的好消息或坏消息敏感。一个要求；富国银行的股票分析师不得不将这些股票评级相当于买入。</blockquote></p><p> “There’s near-term economic uncertainty, interest-rate uncertainty, and Covid risk, and generally we’re in a seasonally weaker part of the year around September,” says Harvey. “If we can balance low vol and high Covid beta, we can mitigate a lot of the upcoming uncertainty and volatility around timing of several of those catalysts. Longer-term, though, we still want to have that [reopening exposure.]”</p><p><blockquote>“哈维说：”近期存在经济不确定性、利率不确定性和 Covid 风险，一般来说，9 月前后我们正处于一年中季节性疲软的时期。“如果我们能在低体积和高 Covid beta 之间取得平衡，我们就能减轻即将到来的许多不确定性和波动性，这些催化剂的时间安排。不过，从长远来看，我们仍然希望有这种[重新开放的风险敞口]”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Harvey’s list of low-volatility stocks with high Covid beta includesApple(AAPL),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>(BAC),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">Northern</a> Trust(NTRS),Lowe’s(LOW),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a> Holdings(IQV), andMasco(MAS).</p><p><blockquote>哈维列出的高Covid贝塔值低波动性股票名单包括苹果公司（AAPL）、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>（BAC），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">北方的</a>信托(NTRS)、劳氏(LOW)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">伊克维亚</a>控股公司 (IQV) 和马斯科 (MAS)。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, banks are the most frequently recommended group for the months ahead. TheInvesco KBW Bankexchange-traded fund (KBWB) provides broad exposure to the sector in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，银行是未来几个月最常被推荐的群体。景顺 KBW 银行交易所交易基金 (KBWB) 为美国该行业提供广泛的投资。</blockquote></p><p> “We like the valuations [and] credit quality; they are now allowed to buy back shares and increase dividends, and there’s higher Covid beta,” says Harvey.</p><p><blockquote>“哈维说：”我们喜欢估值[和]信用质量；他们现在被允许回购股票并增加股息，而且 Covid 贝塔系数也更高。</blockquote></p><p> Cheaper valuations mean less potential downside in a market correction. And, contrary to much of the rest of the stock market, higher interest rates would be a tailwind for the banks, which could then charge more for loans.</p><p><blockquote>更便宜的估值意味着市场调整中潜在的下行空间较小。而且，与股票市场的其他大部分相反，更高的利率将成为银行的推动力，然后银行可能会收取更高的贷款费用。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">Healthcare</a> stocks also have some fans. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">Healthcare</a> has both defensive and growth attributes to it,” Wilson says. “You’re paying a lot less per unit of growth in healthcare today than you are in other sectors. So we think it provides good balance in this market when we’re worried about valuation.” Health insurerHumana(HUM) makes Wilson’s “Fresh Money Buy List” of stocks Buy-rated by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a> analysts and fitting his macro views.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">医疗保健</a>股票也有一些粉丝。“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">医疗保健</a>威尔逊说。“如今，与其他行业相比，医疗保健行业每单位增长的成本要低得多。因此，我们认为，当我们担心估值时，医疗保健行业为这个市场提供了良好的平衡。”Health insurerHumana (HUM) 将威尔逊的 “新鲜资金买入清单”评级为买入<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师并符合他的宏观观点。</blockquote></p><p> Nuveen’s Malik is also looking toward health care for relatively underpriced growth exposure, namely in the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology groups. She points toSeagen(SGEN), which is focused on oncology drugs and could be an attractive acquisition target for a pharma giant.</p><p><blockquote>Nuveen 的 Malik 也将目光投向了医疗保健行业，即制药和生物技术行业，以获得价格相对较低的增长机会。她指出，Seagen (SGEN) 专注于肿瘤药物，可能是制药巨头有吸引力的收购目标。</blockquote></p><p> Malik also likesAbbVie(ABBV) which trades at an undemanding eight times forward earnings and sports a 4.7% dividend yield. The coming expiration of patents on its blockbuster anti-inflammatory drug Humira has kept some investors away, but Malik is confident that management can limit the damage and sees promising drugs in development at the $200 billion company.</p><p><blockquote>马利克还喜欢艾伯维 (ABBV)，该公司的远期市盈率为 8 倍，股息收益率为 4.7%。其重磅抗炎药修美乐的专利即将到期，这让一些投资者望而却步，但马利克相信管理层可以限制损害，并看到这家价值 2000 亿美元的公司正在开发有前途的药物。</blockquote></p><p> Both stocks have had a tough time in recent days. Seagen fell more than 8% last week, to around $152, on news that its co-founder and CEO sold a large number of shares recently. AndAbbVietanked 7% Wednesday, to $112.27, after the Food and Drug Administration required new warning labels for JAK inhibitors, a type of anti-rheumatoid drug that includes one of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">AbbVie</a>’s most promising post-Humira products.</p><p><blockquote>这两只股票最近几天都经历了艰难的时期。Seagen 上周下跌超过 8%，至 152 美元左右，原因是有消息称其联合创始人兼首席执行官最近出售了大量股票。周三，艾伯维股价下跌 7%，至 112.27 美元，此前美国食品和药物管理局要求 JAK 抑制剂贴上新的警告标签，JAK 抑制剂是一种抗类风湿药物，包括以下成分之一<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">艾伯维</a>最有前途的后修美乐产品。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>(PFE),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>(AXP),Johnson &amp; Johnson(JNJ), andCisco Systems(CSCO) are other S&amp;P 500 members that pass a<i>Barron’s</i>screen for quality attributes.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a>（PFE），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">美国运通</a>(AXP)、强生公司 (JNJ) 和思科系统公司 (CSCO) 是其他通过<i>巴伦</i>质量属性屏幕。</blockquote></p><p> After a year of steady gains, investors might be reminded this fall that stocks can also decline, as growth momentum and policy support begin to fade. But underlying economic strength supports buying the dip, should the market drop from its highs. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> be more selective. And go with quality.</p><p><blockquote>经过一年的稳步上涨后，今年秋天投资者可能会被提醒，随着增长势头和政策支持开始消退，股市也可能下跌。但如果市场从高点回落，潜在的经济实力支持逢低买入。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>更有选择性。追求质量。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-could-struggle-this-fall-market-strategists-say-stick-with-quality-companies-51630699840?siteid=yhoof2\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-could-struggle-this-fall-market-strategists-say-stick-with-quality-companies-51630699840?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130130857","content_text":"What a year this has been for the markets! Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and (until recently) a mostly receding pandemic, theS&P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.\nTailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnings growth are likely to decelerate through the end of the year. What’s more, theFederal Reserve has all but promised to start tapering its bond buyingin coming months, and the Biden administration has proposed hiking corporate and personal tax rates. None of this is apt to sit well with holders of increasingly pricey shares.\nIn other words,brace for a volatile fallin which conflicting forces buffet stocks, bonds, and investors. “The everything rally is behind us,” says Saira Malik, chief investment officer of global equities at Nuveen. “It’s not going to be a sharply rising economic tide that lifts all boats from here.”\nThat’s the general consensus among the six market strategists and chief investment officers whomBarron’srecently consulted. All see the S&P 500 ending the year near Thursday’s close of 4536. Their average target: 4585.\nNext year’s gains look muted, as well, relative to recent trends. The group expects the S&P 500 to tack on another 6% in 2022, rising to about 4800.\nWith stocks trading for about 21 times the coming year’s expected earnings,bonds yielding little, and cash yielding less than nothing after accounting for inflation, investors face tough asset-allocation decisions. In place of the “everything rally,” which lifted fast-growing tech stocks, no-growth meme stocks, and the Dogecoins of the digital world, our market watchers recommend focusing on “quality” investments. In equities, that means shares of businesses with solid balance sheets, expanding profit margins, and ample and recurring free cash flow. Even if the averages do little in coming months, these stocks are likely to shine.\nThe stock market’s massive rally in the past year was a gift of sorts from the Federal Reserve, which flooded the financial system with money to stave off theeconomic damage wrought by the Covid pandemic. Since March 2020, the U.S. central bank has been buying a combined $120 billion a month of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, while keeping its benchmark federal-funds rate target at 0% to 0.25%. These moves have depressed bond yields and pushed investors into riskier assets, including stocks.\nFed Chairman Jerome Powell has said that the central bank might begin to wind down, or taper, its emergency asset purchases sometime in the coming quarters, a move that could roil risk assets of all sorts. “For us, it’s very simple: Tapering is tightening,” says Mike Wilson, chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist atMorgan Stanley.“It’s the first step away from maximum accommodation [by the Fed]. They’re being very calculated about it this time, but the bottom line is that it should have a negative effect on equity valuations.”\nThe government’s stimulus spending, too, has peaked, the strategists note. Supplemental federal unemployment benefits of $300 a week expire as of Sept. 6. Although Congress seems likely to pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill this fall, the near-term economic impact will pale in comparison to the multiple rounds of stimulus introduced since March 2020.\nThe bill includes about $550 billion in new spending—a fraction of the trillions authorized by previous laws—and it will be spread out over many years. The short-term boost that infrastructure stimulus will give to consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70% of U.S. growth domestic product, won’t come close to what the economy saw after millions of Americans received checks from the government this past year.\nA budget bill approved by Democrats only should follow the infrastructure bill, and include spending to support Medicare expansion, child-care funding, free community-college tuition, public housing, and climate-related measures, among other party priorities. Congress could vote to lift taxes on corporations and high-earning individuals to offset that spending—another near-term risk to the market.\nOther politically charged issues likewise could derail equities this fall. Congress needs to pass a debt-ceiling increase to fund the government, and a stop-gap spending bill later this month to avoid a Washington shutdown in October.\nFor now, our market experts are relatively sanguine about the economic impact of the Delta variant of Covid-19. As long as vaccines remain effective in minimizing severe infections that lead to hospitalizations and deaths, the negative effects of the current Covid wave will be limited largely to the travel industry and movie theaters, they say. Wall Street’s base case for the market doesn’t include a renewed wave of lockdowns that would undermine economic growth.\nInflation has been a hot topic at the Fed and among investors, partly because it has been running so hot of late. The U.S. consumer price index rose at an annualized 5.4% in both June and July—a spike the Fed calls transitory, although others aren’t so sure. The strategists are taking Powell’s side of the argument; they expect inflation to fall significantly next year. Their forecasts fall between 2.5% and 3.5%, which they consider manageable for consumers and companies, and an acceptable side effect of rapid economic growth. An inflation rate above 2.5%, however, combined with Fed tapering, would mean that now ultralow bond yields should rise.\n“We think inflation will continue to run hotter than it has since the financial crisis, but it’s hard for us to see inflation much over 2.5% once many of the reopening-related pressures start to dissipate,” says Michael Fredericks, head of income investing for theBlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group. “So bond yields do need to move up, but that will happen gradually.”\nThe strategists see the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbing to around 1.65% by year end. That’s about 35 basis points—or hundredths of a percentage point—above current levels, but below the 1.75% that the yield reached at its March 2021 highs. By next year, the 10-year Treasury could yield 2%, the group says. Those aren’t big moves in absolute terms, but they’re meaningful for the bond market—and could be even more so for stocks.\nRising yields tend to weigh on stock valuations for two reasons. Higher-yielding bonds offer competition to stocks, and companies’ future earnings are worthless in the present when discounting them at a higher rate. Still, a 10-year yield around 2% won’t be enough to knock stock valuations down to pre-Covid levels. Even if yields climb, market strategists see the price/earnings multiple of the S&P 500 holding well above its 30-year average of 16 times forward earnings. The index’s forward P/E topped 23 last fall.\n\nAs long as 10-year Treasury yields stay in the 2% range, the S&P 500 should be able to command a forward P/E in the high teens, strategists say. A return to the 16-times long-term average isn’t in the cards until there is more pressure from much higher yields—or something else that causes stocks to fall.\nIf yields surge past 2% or 2.25%, investors could start to question equity valuations more seriously, says State Street’schief portfolio strategist, Gaurav Mallik: “We haven’t seen [the 10-year yield] above 2% for some time now, so that’s an important sentiment level for investors.”\n\nWilson is more concerned, noting that the stock market’s valuation risk is asymmetric: “It’s very unlikely that multiples are going to go up, and there’s a good chance that they go down more than 10% given the deceleration in growth and where we are in the cycle,” he says\nIf 16 to 23 times forward earnings is the range, he adds, “you’re already at the very high end of that. There’s more potential risk than reward.”\nSome P/E-multiple compression is baked into all six strategists’ forecasts, heaping greater importance on the path of profit growth. On average, the strategists expect S&P 500 earnings to jump 46% this year, to about $204, after last year’s earnings depression. That could be followed by a more normalized gain of 9% in 2022, to about $222.50.\nA potential headwind would be a higher federal corporate-tax rate in 2022. The details of Democrats’ spending and taxation plans will be worked out in the coming weeks, and investors can expect to hear a lot more about potential tax increases. Several strategists see a 25% federal rate on corporate profits as a likely compromise figure, above the 21% in place since 2018, but below the 28% sought by the Biden administration.\nAn increase of that magnitude would shave about 5% off S&P 500 earnings next year. The index could drop by a similar amount as the passage of the Democrats’ reconciliation bill nears this fall, but the impact should be limited to that initial correction. As with the tax cuts in December 2017, the change should be a one-time event for the market, some strategists predict.\nThese concerns aside, investors shouldn’t miss the bigger picture: The U.S. economy is in good shape and growing robustly. The strategists expect gross domestic product to rise 6.3% this year and about 4% in 2022. “The cyclical uplift and above-trend growth will continue at least through 2022, and we want to be biased toward assets that have that exposure,” says Mallik.\n\n “We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next. When GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”— Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets\n\nThe State Street strategist recommends overweighting materials, financials, and technology in investment portfolios. That approach includes both economically sensitive companies, such as banks and miners, and steady growers in the tech sector.\nRBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, likewise takes a barbell approach, with both cyclical and growth exposure. Her preferred sectors are energy, financials, and technology.\n“Valuations are still a lot more attractive in financials and energy than growth [sectors such as technology or consumer discretionary,]” Calvasina says. “The catalyst in the near term is getting out of the current Covid wave... We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next, and traditionally when GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”\nBut the focus on quality will be pivotal, especially moving into the second half of 2022. That’s when the Fed is likely to hike interest rates for the first time in this cycle. By 2023, the economy could return to pre-Covid growth on the order of 2%.\n“The historical playbook is that coming out of a recession, you tend to see low-quality outperformance that lasts about a year, then leadership flips back to high quality,” Calvasina says. “But that transition from low quality back to high quality tends to be very bumpy.”\nA Shopping List for Fall\nMost strategists favor a combination of economically sensitive stocks and steady growers, including tech shares. Financials should do well, particularly if bond yields rise.\n\nAlthough stocks with quality attributes have outperformed the market this summer, according to a BlackRock analysis, the quality factor has lagged since positive vaccine news was first reported last November.\n“We’re moving into a mid-cycle environment, when underlying economic growth remains strong but momentum begins to decelerate,” BlackRock’s Fredericks says. “Our research shows that quality stocks perform particularly well in such a period.”\nHe recommends overweighting profitable technology companies; financials, including banks, and consumer staples and industrials with those quality characteristics.\nFor Wells Fargo’s head of equity strategy, Christopher Harvey, a mix of post-pandemic beneficiaries and defensive exposure is the way to go. He constructed a basket of stocks with lower-than-average volatility—which should outperform during periods of market uncertainty or stress this fall—and high “Covid beta,” or sensitivity to good or bad news about the pandemic. One requirement; The stocks had to be rated the equivalent of Buy by Wells Fargo’s equity analysts.\n“There’s near-term economic uncertainty, interest-rate uncertainty, and Covid risk, and generally we’re in a seasonally weaker part of the year around September,” says Harvey. “If we can balance low vol and high Covid beta, we can mitigate a lot of the upcoming uncertainty and volatility around timing of several of those catalysts. Longer-term, though, we still want to have that [reopening exposure.]”\nHarvey’s list of low-volatility stocks with high Covid beta includesApple(AAPL),Bank of America(BAC),Northern Trust(NTRS),Lowe’s(LOW),IQVIA Holdings(IQV), andMasco(MAS).\nOverall, banks are the most frequently recommended group for the months ahead. TheInvesco KBW Bankexchange-traded fund (KBWB) provides broad exposure to the sector in the U.S.\n“We like the valuations [and] credit quality; they are now allowed to buy back shares and increase dividends, and there’s higher Covid beta,” says Harvey.\nCheaper valuations mean less potential downside in a market correction. And, contrary to much of the rest of the stock market, higher interest rates would be a tailwind for the banks, which could then charge more for loans.\nHealthcare stocks also have some fans. “Healthcare has both defensive and growth attributes to it,” Wilson says. “You’re paying a lot less per unit of growth in healthcare today than you are in other sectors. So we think it provides good balance in this market when we’re worried about valuation.” Health insurerHumana(HUM) makes Wilson’s “Fresh Money Buy List” of stocks Buy-rated by Morgan Stanley analysts and fitting his macro views.\nNuveen’s Malik is also looking toward health care for relatively underpriced growth exposure, namely in the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology groups. She points toSeagen(SGEN), which is focused on oncology drugs and could be an attractive acquisition target for a pharma giant.\nMalik also likesAbbVie(ABBV) which trades at an undemanding eight times forward earnings and sports a 4.7% dividend yield. The coming expiration of patents on its blockbuster anti-inflammatory drug Humira has kept some investors away, but Malik is confident that management can limit the damage and sees promising drugs in development at the $200 billion company.\nBoth stocks have had a tough time in recent days. Seagen fell more than 8% last week, to around $152, on news that its co-founder and CEO sold a large number of shares recently. AndAbbVietanked 7% Wednesday, to $112.27, after the Food and Drug Administration required new warning labels for JAK inhibitors, a type of anti-rheumatoid drug that includes one of AbbVie’s most promising post-Humira products.\nPfizer(PFE),American Express(AXP),Johnson & Johnson(JNJ), andCisco Systems(CSCO) are other S&P 500 members that pass aBarron’sscreen for quality attributes.\nAfter a year of steady gains, investors might be reminded this fall that stocks can also decline, as growth momentum and policy support begin to fade. But underlying economic strength supports buying the dip, should the market drop from its highs. Just be more selective. And go with quality.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2576,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":814667305,"gmtCreate":1630814087807,"gmtModify":1631885626154,"author":{"id":"3582016561552186","authorId":"3582016561552186","name":"KMK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef525a9485b7272e73ab442de514d467","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016561552186","authorIdStr":"3582016561552186"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Plz like","listText":"Plz like","text":"Plz like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/814667305","repostId":"1189766406","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2680,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":837188154,"gmtCreate":1629864442978,"gmtModify":1631885626168,"author":{"id":"3582016561552186","authorId":"3582016561552186","name":"KMK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef525a9485b7272e73ab442de514d467","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016561552186","authorIdStr":"3582016561552186"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/837188154","repostId":"2162087564","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2763,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":835924489,"gmtCreate":1629684802641,"gmtModify":1631885626177,"author":{"id":"3582016561552186","authorId":"3582016561552186","name":"KMK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef525a9485b7272e73ab442de514d467","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016561552186","authorIdStr":"3582016561552186"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/835924489","repostId":"2161747692","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2497,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":836478294,"gmtCreate":1629518746218,"gmtModify":1631885626194,"author":{"id":"3582016561552186","authorId":"3582016561552186","name":"KMK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef525a9485b7272e73ab442de514d467","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016561552186","authorIdStr":"3582016561552186"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/836478294","repostId":"1151608193","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151608193","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629728324,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1151608193?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-23 22:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股的回调——长期关注这 6 家公司</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151608193","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.\nISTOCKPHOTO\nIn the rolling correcti","content":"<p><b>The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>iShares 半导体 ETF 较近期高点下跌超过 6%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b24e4a76a5d1cd0ff030cf1b0eeac0f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.</p><p><blockquote>在股市的滚动调整中，芯片制造商受到的打击比大多数制造商都要大。</blockquote></p><p> The iShares Semiconductor ETF&nbsp;is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&amp;P 500,Nasdaq&nbsp;Composite&nbsp;and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.</p><p><blockquote>iShares 半导体 ETF 较近期高点下跌超过 6%，而标准普尔 500 指数、纳斯达克综合指数和道琼斯工业平均指数的跌幅为 2% 或更少。</blockquote></p><p> Does that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.</p><p><blockquote>这是否意味着芯片股票值得买入？或者，这个历史上具有周期性的行业是否故技重施，陷入持续下跌趋势，让你大吃一惊。</blockquote></p><p> A lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”</p><p><blockquote>很大程度上取决于您的时间表，但如果您喜欢持有股票多年，而不是租用几天，那么该集团值得购买。主要原因： “这次不一样”。</blockquote></p><p> Those are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.</p><p><blockquote>这些无疑是投资中最可怕的词语之一。但芯片行业已经发生了很大的变化，现在确实不同了——这表明它不太可能压垮你。</blockquote></p><p> You’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为没有风险，那你就是个傻瓜。我会回顾一下这些。但首先，以下是该集团现在 “更安全 ”的三个主要原因--以及我在过去几天里与六位行业专家交谈过的六位行业专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.周期性的邪恶女巫死了</b></blockquote></p><p> “Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">First</a> PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.</p><p><blockquote>“Impax Asset Management 的投资组合经理 David Winborne 说：”受产品周期的驱动，芯片行业的需求总是时好时坏。“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">第一</a>电脑，然后是服务器，然后是电话。”但他表示，现在整个经济对芯片的需求已经扩大，因此长期增长故事更可预测。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>看看你周围。由于我们的生活和工作日益 “数字化 ”，终端市场需求从各个角度都更加多样化。把远程办公服务想象成<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">缩放</a>看好该集团的 Gabelli Funds 投资组合经理兼技术分析师 Hendi Susanto 指出，网上购物、云服务、电动汽车、5G 手机、智能工厂、大数据计算甚至洗衣机。</blockquote></p><p> “There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”</p><p><blockquote>“Motley Fool 芯片行业分析师 John Rotonti 说：”现代数字经济的任何方面都离不开半导体。“这意味着所有东西都有更多的筹码。长期需求是存在的”。</blockquote></p><p> He’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William&nbsp;Blair&nbsp;analyst Greg Scolaro.</p><p><blockquote>他没开玩笑。威廉·布莱尔分析师格雷格·斯科拉罗预测，到2030年，芯片行业的收入将从2020年的4650亿美元翻一番，达到1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> All of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a> chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> confirmed by a majority of large customers.”</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都意味着，你听到的大范围供应短缺 “可能要到明年年底的某个时候才能得到解决”。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>芯片行业分析师 Vivek Arya。“这不仅是我们的观点，而且<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>大多数大客户都证实了这一点。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. The players have consolidated</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2、玩家巩固</b></blockquote></p><p> All up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.</p><p><blockquote>在生产链的上下游，从设计到各类设备生产商再到制造，行业参与者已经整合成罗通蒂-评级 “赢得 ”的双头垄断或垄断。</blockquote></p><p> In chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems&nbsp;and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML&nbsp;in extreme ultraviolet lithography&nbsp;(EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor&nbsp;and Samsung Electronics.</p><p><blockquote>在芯片设计软件中，你有Cadence Design Systems和Synopsys。在生产设备方面，公司在极紫外光刻 (EUV) 等专业领域占据主导地位，例如 ASML。制造业由台积电和三星电子主导。</blockquote></p><p> These companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司通过在他们所做的事情上做到最好，赢得了他们的利基或双寡头地位。这使得投资者对它们感兴趣。Rotonti 表示，整合还意味着参与者在定价和产能方面的行为更加理性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Profitability has improved</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3、盈利能力有所改善</b></blockquote></p><p> This more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.</p><p><blockquote>这种更加理性的行为，加上成本削减，意味着现在的盈利能力比历史上高得多。“温伯恩说：”在过去的几年里，芯片制造的经济性有了很大的改善。现金流或 EBITDA 利润率现在通常超过 30%，而十年前则在 20% 左右。</blockquote></p><p> This has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere &amp; Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”</p><p><blockquote>这对估值有影响。Villere &amp; Co. 的投资组合经理拉马尔·维莱尔 (Lamar Villere) 指出，尽管芯片股票的交易市盈率约为市盈率，但它们看起来很便宜，因为它们是更好的公司。“他们并没有以泡沫倍数进行交易”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The stocks to buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要买的股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.</p><p><blockquote>以下是我最近核实的芯片专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New management plays</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新管理层玩法</b></blockquote></p><p> Though Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm&nbsp;and ON Semiconductor.</p><p><blockquote>尽管 Thrivent 高级股票研究分析师彼得·卡拉泽里斯 (Peter Karazeris) 有理由对该集团持谨慎态度（见下文），但他特别指出了两家公司的业绩可能会因为新管理层而得到提振：高通和安森美半导体。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Both have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">ON Semiconductor</a> is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.</p><p><blockquote>两者都具有稳定的盈利能力。高通最近受到德克萨斯州恶劣天气等一次性问题的打击，导致生产中断，但该公司对5G手机趋势有很好的了解。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">半导体</a>正在将手机以外的领域扩展到汽车、工业和物联网等新领域——联网设备领域。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A data center and gaming play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数据中心和游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> Karazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.</p><p><blockquote>Karazeris 还特别提到了 Nvidia， 由于其卓越的设计能力， Nvidia 从数据中心和游戏设备芯片需求中获得了持续提振。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Design tool companies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>设计工具公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">Synopsys</a>.</p><p><blockquote>说到设计，当高通和英伟达等公司想要设计芯片时，他们会求助于Cadence Design Systems提供的设计工具和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">概要</a>.</blockquote></p><p> Their software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool 的 Rotonti 解释说，他们基于软件的设计工具可以帮助芯片创新者为他们的芯片创建蓝图，他特别指出了这些名字。“他们不是世界上增长最快的公司，但他们的利润率很高”。他们也主宰了太空。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An EUV&nbsp;play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>EUV游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> To put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>为了在芯片生产的早期阶段将这些蓝图应用到硅上，台积电和三星等公司转向了ASML。它的机器使用微小的光脉冲将芯片设计模板印在硅片上，这一过程称为极紫外线光刻。“罗通蒂说：”其他人还没有想出怎么做。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，它在供应这样做的机器方面拥有垄断地位——这对于任何想要制造领先芯片的公司来说都是必要的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.</p><p><blockquote>以下是芯片行业投资者需要关注的一些主要风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oversupply</b></p><p><blockquote><b>供过于求</b></blockquote></p><p> Chip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.</p><p><blockquote>芯片生产已经政治化。美国希望在国内生产更多，这样它就不会受到中国供应链中断的影响。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>Winborne 表示，希望到 2025 年生产其使用的芯片的 70%，高于目前的 5%。</blockquote></p><p> The upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.</p><p><blockquote>结果是，政府为促进制造业提供了大量支持，因此会有更多支持。风险是未来某个时候供应过剩。这也可能会推动芯片设备的采购，导致未来的平静，这可能会损害设备制造商的销售和利润率趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Next, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple&nbsp;and Ammazon.com&nbsp;are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，像Alphabet、苹果和亚马逊这样的大型科技公司都在做自己的芯片设计，这威胁到了做同样事情的专业芯片公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">Quantum</a> computing</b></p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">量子的</a>计算机的</b></blockquote></p><p> Computers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”</p><p><blockquote>William Blair 的 Scolaro 指出，使用基于量子物理学的芯片设计而不是传统半导体架构的计算机具有卓越的性能。“虽然量子计算可能至少在未来五年内不会成为主流，但它有潜力改变从技术到医疗保健的一切。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A disturbing signal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>干扰信号</b></blockquote></p><p> A blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.</p><p><blockquote>全球采购经理人 (PMI) 指数在 4 月份达到峰值，然后连续三个月放缓。与此同时，芯片销售持续增长。Thrivent 跟踪该指标的 Karazeris 指出，通常两者遵循相同的趋势。他将这种差异归因于库存积累，而库存积累不如真正的终端市场需求可持续。因此，他认为这种背离是芯片行业的看跌信号。</blockquote></p><p> Another cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory&nbsp;(DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.</p><p><blockquote>另一个警告信号来自动态随机存取存储器（DRAM）芯片定价的预测疲软。“卡拉泽里斯说：”这些通常是在周期的顶部而不是底部看到的东西。</blockquote></p><p> But it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>但也有可能全球采购经理人指数的放缓更多的是芯片短缺的反映，而不是短缺并非真实存在的迹象（只是库存积压）。“Leuthold 经济学家兼策略师吉姆-保尔森（Jim Paulsen）说：”这种分歧并不一定意味着芯片订单会翻盘消亡。这意味着芯片制造业必须迎头赶上。</blockquote></p><p> Ford,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.</p><p><blockquote>例如，福特刚刚宣布不得不减产是因为芯片短缺，而不是潜在需求不足。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> cars.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预测，由于高储蓄率、就业和收入反弹以及对大件商品被压抑的需求等因素，体面的经济增长是可持续的。如果他是对的，持续的经济实力将支撑对所有使用芯片的产品的需求，包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>汽车。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股的回调——长期关注这 6 家公司</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股的回调——长期关注这 6 家公司</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-23 22:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>iShares 半导体 ETF 较近期高点下跌超过 6%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b24e4a76a5d1cd0ff030cf1b0eeac0f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.</p><p><blockquote>在股市的滚动调整中，芯片制造商受到的打击比大多数制造商都要大。</blockquote></p><p> The iShares Semiconductor ETF&nbsp;is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&amp;P 500,Nasdaq&nbsp;Composite&nbsp;and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.</p><p><blockquote>iShares 半导体 ETF 较近期高点下跌超过 6%，而标准普尔 500 指数、纳斯达克综合指数和道琼斯工业平均指数的跌幅为 2% 或更少。</blockquote></p><p> Does that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.</p><p><blockquote>这是否意味着芯片股票值得买入？或者，这个历史上具有周期性的行业是否故技重施，陷入持续下跌趋势，让你大吃一惊。</blockquote></p><p> A lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”</p><p><blockquote>很大程度上取决于您的时间表，但如果您喜欢持有股票多年，而不是租用几天，那么该集团值得购买。主要原因： “这次不一样”。</blockquote></p><p> Those are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.</p><p><blockquote>这些无疑是投资中最可怕的词语之一。但芯片行业已经发生了很大的变化，现在确实不同了——这表明它不太可能压垮你。</blockquote></p><p> You’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为没有风险，那你就是个傻瓜。我会回顾一下这些。但首先，以下是该集团现在 “更安全 ”的三个主要原因--以及我在过去几天里与六位行业专家交谈过的六位行业专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.周期性的邪恶女巫死了</b></blockquote></p><p> “Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">First</a> PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.</p><p><blockquote>“Impax Asset Management 的投资组合经理 David Winborne 说：”受产品周期的驱动，芯片行业的需求总是时好时坏。“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">第一</a>电脑，然后是服务器，然后是电话。”但他表示，现在整个经济对芯片的需求已经扩大，因此长期增长故事更可预测。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>看看你周围。由于我们的生活和工作日益 “数字化 ”，终端市场需求从各个角度都更加多样化。把远程办公服务想象成<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">缩放</a>看好该集团的 Gabelli Funds 投资组合经理兼技术分析师 Hendi Susanto 指出，网上购物、云服务、电动汽车、5G 手机、智能工厂、大数据计算甚至洗衣机。</blockquote></p><p> “There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”</p><p><blockquote>“Motley Fool 芯片行业分析师 John Rotonti 说：”现代数字经济的任何方面都离不开半导体。“这意味着所有东西都有更多的筹码。长期需求是存在的”。</blockquote></p><p> He’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William&nbsp;Blair&nbsp;analyst Greg Scolaro.</p><p><blockquote>他没开玩笑。威廉·布莱尔分析师格雷格·斯科拉罗预测，到2030年，芯片行业的收入将从2020年的4650亿美元翻一番，达到1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> All of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a> chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> confirmed by a majority of large customers.”</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都意味着，你听到的大范围供应短缺 “可能要到明年年底的某个时候才能得到解决”。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>芯片行业分析师 Vivek Arya。“这不仅是我们的观点，而且<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>大多数大客户都证实了这一点。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. The players have consolidated</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2、玩家巩固</b></blockquote></p><p> All up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.</p><p><blockquote>在生产链的上下游，从设计到各类设备生产商再到制造，行业参与者已经整合成罗通蒂-评级 “赢得 ”的双头垄断或垄断。</blockquote></p><p> In chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems&nbsp;and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML&nbsp;in extreme ultraviolet lithography&nbsp;(EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor&nbsp;and Samsung Electronics.</p><p><blockquote>在芯片设计软件中，你有Cadence Design Systems和Synopsys。在生产设备方面，公司在极紫外光刻 (EUV) 等专业领域占据主导地位，例如 ASML。制造业由台积电和三星电子主导。</blockquote></p><p> These companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司通过在他们所做的事情上做到最好，赢得了他们的利基或双寡头地位。这使得投资者对它们感兴趣。Rotonti 表示，整合还意味着参与者在定价和产能方面的行为更加理性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Profitability has improved</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3、盈利能力有所改善</b></blockquote></p><p> This more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.</p><p><blockquote>这种更加理性的行为，加上成本削减，意味着现在的盈利能力比历史上高得多。“温伯恩说：”在过去的几年里，芯片制造的经济性有了很大的改善。现金流或 EBITDA 利润率现在通常超过 30%，而十年前则在 20% 左右。</blockquote></p><p> This has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere &amp; Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”</p><p><blockquote>这对估值有影响。Villere &amp; Co. 的投资组合经理拉马尔·维莱尔 (Lamar Villere) 指出，尽管芯片股票的交易市盈率约为市盈率，但它们看起来很便宜，因为它们是更好的公司。“他们并没有以泡沫倍数进行交易”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The stocks to buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要买的股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.</p><p><blockquote>以下是我最近核实的芯片专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New management plays</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新管理层玩法</b></blockquote></p><p> Though Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm&nbsp;and ON Semiconductor.</p><p><blockquote>尽管 Thrivent 高级股票研究分析师彼得·卡拉泽里斯 (Peter Karazeris) 有理由对该集团持谨慎态度（见下文），但他特别指出了两家公司的业绩可能会因为新管理层而得到提振：高通和安森美半导体。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Both have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">ON Semiconductor</a> is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.</p><p><blockquote>两者都具有稳定的盈利能力。高通最近受到德克萨斯州恶劣天气等一次性问题的打击，导致生产中断，但该公司对5G手机趋势有很好的了解。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">半导体</a>正在将手机以外的领域扩展到汽车、工业和物联网等新领域——联网设备领域。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A data center and gaming play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数据中心和游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> Karazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.</p><p><blockquote>Karazeris 还特别提到了 Nvidia， 由于其卓越的设计能力， Nvidia 从数据中心和游戏设备芯片需求中获得了持续提振。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Design tool companies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>设计工具公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">Synopsys</a>.</p><p><blockquote>说到设计，当高通和英伟达等公司想要设计芯片时，他们会求助于Cadence Design Systems提供的设计工具和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">概要</a>.</blockquote></p><p> Their software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool 的 Rotonti 解释说，他们基于软件的设计工具可以帮助芯片创新者为他们的芯片创建蓝图，他特别指出了这些名字。“他们不是世界上增长最快的公司，但他们的利润率很高”。他们也主宰了太空。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An EUV&nbsp;play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>EUV游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> To put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>为了在芯片生产的早期阶段将这些蓝图应用到硅上，台积电和三星等公司转向了ASML。它的机器使用微小的光脉冲将芯片设计模板印在硅片上，这一过程称为极紫外线光刻。“罗通蒂说：”其他人还没有想出怎么做。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，它在供应这样做的机器方面拥有垄断地位——这对于任何想要制造领先芯片的公司来说都是必要的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.</p><p><blockquote>以下是芯片行业投资者需要关注的一些主要风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oversupply</b></p><p><blockquote><b>供过于求</b></blockquote></p><p> Chip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.</p><p><blockquote>芯片生产已经政治化。美国希望在国内生产更多，这样它就不会受到中国供应链中断的影响。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>Winborne 表示，希望到 2025 年生产其使用的芯片的 70%，高于目前的 5%。</blockquote></p><p> The upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.</p><p><blockquote>结果是，政府为促进制造业提供了大量支持，因此会有更多支持。风险是未来某个时候供应过剩。这也可能会推动芯片设备的采购，导致未来的平静，这可能会损害设备制造商的销售和利润率趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Next, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple&nbsp;and Ammazon.com&nbsp;are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，像Alphabet、苹果和亚马逊这样的大型科技公司都在做自己的芯片设计，这威胁到了做同样事情的专业芯片公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">Quantum</a> computing</b></p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">量子的</a>计算机的</b></blockquote></p><p> Computers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”</p><p><blockquote>William Blair 的 Scolaro 指出，使用基于量子物理学的芯片设计而不是传统半导体架构的计算机具有卓越的性能。“虽然量子计算可能至少在未来五年内不会成为主流，但它有潜力改变从技术到医疗保健的一切。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A disturbing signal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>干扰信号</b></blockquote></p><p> A blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.</p><p><blockquote>全球采购经理人 (PMI) 指数在 4 月份达到峰值，然后连续三个月放缓。与此同时，芯片销售持续增长。Thrivent 跟踪该指标的 Karazeris 指出，通常两者遵循相同的趋势。他将这种差异归因于库存积累，而库存积累不如真正的终端市场需求可持续。因此，他认为这种背离是芯片行业的看跌信号。</blockquote></p><p> Another cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory&nbsp;(DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.</p><p><blockquote>另一个警告信号来自动态随机存取存储器（DRAM）芯片定价的预测疲软。“卡拉泽里斯说：”这些通常是在周期的顶部而不是底部看到的东西。</blockquote></p><p> But it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>但也有可能全球采购经理人指数的放缓更多的是芯片短缺的反映，而不是短缺并非真实存在的迹象（只是库存积压）。“Leuthold 经济学家兼策略师吉姆-保尔森（Jim Paulsen）说：”这种分歧并不一定意味着芯片订单会翻盘消亡。这意味着芯片制造业必须迎头赶上。</blockquote></p><p> Ford,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.</p><p><blockquote>例如，福特刚刚宣布不得不减产是因为芯片短缺，而不是潜在需求不足。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> cars.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预测，由于高储蓄率、就业和收入反弹以及对大件商品被压抑的需求等因素，体面的经济增长是可持续的。如果他是对的，持续的经济实力将支撑对所有使用芯片的产品的需求，包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>汽车。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-the-pullback-in-chip-stocks-and-focus-on-these-6-companies-for-the-long-haul-11629468380?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊","GOOG":"谷歌","ASML":"阿斯麦","ON":"安森美半导体","QCOM":"高通","NVDA":"英伟达","AAPL":"苹果","GOOGL":"谷歌A","CDNS":"铿腾电子","SSNLF":"三星电子","SNPS":"新思科技","SOXX":"iShares费城交易所半导体ETF","TSM":"台积电"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-the-pullback-in-chip-stocks-and-focus-on-these-6-companies-for-the-long-haul-11629468380?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151608193","content_text":"The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.\nISTOCKPHOTO\nIn the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.\nThe iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&P 500,Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.\nDoes that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.\nA lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”\nThose are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.\nYou’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.\n1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead\n“Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “First PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.\nJust look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like Zoom, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.\n“There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”\nHe’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William Blair analyst Greg Scolaro.\nAll of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says Bank of America chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but one confirmed by a majority of large customers.”\n2. The players have consolidated\nAll up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.\nIn chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML in extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung Electronics.\nThese companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.\n3. Profitability has improved\nThis more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.\nThis has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere & Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”\nThe stocks to buy\nHere are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.\nNew management plays\nThough Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm and ON Semiconductor.\nBoth have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. ON Semiconductor is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.\nA data center and gaming play\nKarazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.\nDesign tool companies\nSpeaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys.\nTheir software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.\nAn EUV play\nTo put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.\nIn other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.\nRisks\nHere are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.\nOversupply\nChip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. China wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.\nThe upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.\nNext, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple and Ammazon.com are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.\nQuantum computing\nComputers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”\nA disturbing signal\nA blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.\nAnother cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.\nBut it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.\nFord,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.\nPaulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including Ford cars.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9,"AAPL":0.9,"AMZN":0.9,"TSM":0.9,"SOXX":0.9,"GOOG":0.9,"SNPS":0.9,"ON":0.9,"SSNLF":0.9,"CDNS":0.9,"QCOM":0.9,"GOOGL":0.9,"ASML":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":863,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164072179,"gmtCreate":1624163350991,"gmtModify":1631884711726,"author":{"id":"3582016561552186","authorId":"3582016561552186","name":"KMK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef525a9485b7272e73ab442de514d467","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016561552186","authorIdStr":"3582016561552186"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"12 IPOs:&nbsp;Chinese freight platform Full Truck Alliance(YMM)Healthcare manager Bright Health Group(BHG)Data infrastructure provider Confluent(CFLT) plans&nbsp;Car wash brand Mister Car Wash(MCW)Digital physicians network Doximity(DOCS)Customer experience software provider Sprinklr(CXM)&nbsp;HR platform provider First Advantage(FA)&nbsp;Chinese social networking platform Soulgate(SSR)&nbsp;Digital financial services provider AMTD Digital(HKD)Organ bioengineering company Miromatrix Medical(MIRO)&nbsp;Kidney disease biotech Unicycive Therapeutics(UNCY)&nbsp;Antibiotic biotech Acurx Pharmaceuticals(ACXP)&nbsp;","listText":"12 IPOs:&nbsp;Chinese freight platform Full Truck Alliance(YMM)Healthcare manager Bright Health Group(BHG)Data infrastructure provider Confluent(CFLT) plans&nbsp;Car wash brand Mister Car Wash(MCW)Digital physicians network Doximity(DOCS)Customer experience software provider Sprinklr(CXM)&nbsp;HR platform provider First Advantage(FA)&nbsp;Chinese social networking platform Soulgate(SSR)&nbsp;Digital financial services provider AMTD Digital(HKD)Organ bioengineering company Miromatrix Medical(MIRO)&nbsp;Kidney disease biotech Unicycive Therapeutics(UNCY)&nbsp;Antibiotic biotech Acurx Pharmaceuticals(ACXP)&nbsp;","text":"12 IPOs: Chinese freight platform Full Truck Alliance(YMM)Healthcare manager Bright Health Group(BHG)Data infrastructure provider Confluent(CFLT) plans Car wash brand Mister Car Wash(MCW)Digital physicians network Doximity(DOCS)Customer experience software provider Sprinklr(CXM) HR platform provider First Advantage(FA) Chinese social networking platform Soulgate(SSR) Digital financial services provider AMTD Digital(HKD)Organ bioengineering company Miromatrix Medical(MIRO) Kidney disease biotech Unicycive Therapeutics(UNCY) Antibiotic biotech Acurx Pharmaceuticals(ACXP)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164072179","repostId":"1199331995","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":933,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":161073769,"gmtCreate":1623898399851,"gmtModify":1631885626200,"author":{"id":"3582016561552186","authorId":"3582016561552186","name":"KMK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef525a9485b7272e73ab442de514d467","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016561552186","authorIdStr":"3582016561552186"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hmmm....","listText":"Hmmm....","text":"Hmmm....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/161073769","repostId":"2144790466","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":887,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169960825,"gmtCreate":1623812805767,"gmtModify":1631885626213,"author":{"id":"3582016561552186","authorId":"3582016561552186","name":"KMK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef525a9485b7272e73ab442de514d467","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016561552186","authorIdStr":"3582016561552186"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hmm....","listText":"Hmm....","text":"Hmm....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169960825","repostId":"1141264092","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1141264092","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623811561,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1141264092?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-16 10:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Fisker The Next Short Squeeze?<blockquote>菲斯克是下一个空头挤压吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141264092","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nFSR is up 72% since my bullish call just a month ago.\nWith that sort of move, caution is wa","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>FSR is up 72% since my bullish call just a month ago.</li>  <li>With that sort of move, caution is warranted on further gains.</li>  <li>New fundamental developments lay out the future path for Fisker.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8cfc5757fb9bcd2dad4f529e916092c\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>jonathanfilskov-photography/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>自从我一个月前的看涨看涨期权以来，FSR 上涨了 72%。</li><li>有了这样的举动，就有必要对进一步上涨保持谨慎。</li><li>新的基本发展为菲斯克规划了未来的道路。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>jonathanfilskov-摄影/iStock via Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The electric vehicle space has been, let’s say, volatile over the past year or so. OG&nbsp;<b>Tesla</b>(TSLA) continues to dwarf all other comers in terms of market cap, but there are numerous new competitors, many of which are so new, they don’t even have any revenue yet. One such example is the reincarnated&nbsp;<b>Fisker Inc.</b>(FSR), which is founder Henrik Fisker’s second go at making an electric automaker.</p><p><blockquote>可以说，在过去一年左右的时间里，电动汽车领域一直不稳定。和<b>特斯拉</b>(特斯拉）在市值方面继续让所有其他竞争对手相形见绌，但新的竞争对手不胜枚举，其中许多竞争对手还很新，甚至还没有任何收入。转世就是这样一个例子<b>菲斯克公司。</b>(FSR)，这是创始人亨里克-菲斯克（Henrik Fisker）第二次尝试创建电动汽车制造商。</blockquote></p><p> I wrote apieceon Fisker about a month ago when the share price was $10.69, saying it was a great time to buy. Shares are 72% higher than that today – a<i>massive</i>move in the space of four weeks – but such is the nature of the game in electric vehicles. Up 72%, the big question is, do you continue to hold? In this case, I think the answer is “no”, but with some caveats.</p><p><blockquote>大约一个月前，当股价为 10.69 美元时，我给 apieceon Fisker 写了一封信，说现在是买入的好时机。股价比今天上涨 72% – a<i>巨大的</i>在四周内移动——但这就是电动汽车的本质。上涨72%，最大的问题是，你会继续持有吗？在这种情况下，我认为答案是 “否”，但有一些注意事项。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b7e34a03823eba6302e3194baa808ce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"615\"><span>Source: StockCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：股票图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> First, let’s take a look at the chart, which highlights just how volatile this thing really is. Prior support in the low-$14s was lost during the last downturn, and the stock eventually bottomed at $9.61. Since then, shares have<i>doubled</i>, and we’ve seen a complete reset in terms of sentiment for Fisker. One thing you must understand is that Fisker and other zero-revenue EV makers trade on momentum and sentiment rather than fundamentals, so you must be nimble.</p><p><blockquote>首先，让我们来看看图表，它突出了这个东西到底有多么不稳定。此前14美元低点的支撑位在上次低迷期间失去，该股最终触底9.61美元。此后，股票<i>双倍</i>我们看到菲斯克的情绪完全重置。你必须明白的一件事是，菲斯克和其他零收入电动汽车制造商的交易取决于势头和情绪，而不是基本面，所以你必须灵活。</blockquote></p><p> I would look for that low-$14 area to hold as support on the next pullback, but I’ll also note that it isn’t all that strong, having failed miserably last time there was a selloff. But if the stock is going to bounce, that will likely be the area it will happen.</p><p><blockquote>我会将 14 美元的低点区域作为下一次回调的支撑，但我也会注意到，该区域并不那么强劲，上次抛售时曾惨败。但如果股票要反弹，那很可能就是反弹的领域。</blockquote></p><p> I’ll also note the PPO is very overbought, and is very close to the same levels where prior rallies have lost steam and eventually rolled over. That means the odds of a further rally from here are greatly diminishing, as the bulls have made a Herculean push already, and there are signs the push is ending, at least temporarily.</p><p><blockquote>我还要指出，PPO 非常超买，非常接近之前反弹失去动力并最终翻盘的水平。这意味着从这里进一步反弹的可能性正在大大降低，因为多头已经做出了巨大的推动，而且有迹象表明推动正在结束，至少是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p> The 14-day RSI is showing similar behavior, as it is rolling over after reaching extreme overbought conditions. The point of all of this is that this stock has doubled in the space of a month, and the rally looks tired. I don’t see a reasonable path meaningfully higher here, but in the EV space, anything can happen. But the bottom line is that the rally looks tired to me, and I think the most prudent course of action is to take profits and wait for a lower re-entry.</p><p><blockquote>14 天 RSI 也表现出类似的行为，因为它在达到极端超买条件后正在翻转。这一切的要点是，这只股票在一个月的时间里翻了一番，而且涨势看起来很疲惫。我在这里看不到一条合理的更高路径，但在电动汽车领域，任何事情都可能发生。但底线是，反弹在我看来很疲惫，我认为最谨慎的做法是获利了结并等待更低的重新进入。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New developments</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新发展</b></blockquote></p><p> There have been some interesting developments since my last update on Fisker, and ones that have the potential to drive the share price over time.</p><p><blockquote>自从我上次更新 Fisker 以来，出现了一些有趣的进展，并且随着时间的推移，这些进展有可能推动股价。</blockquote></p><p> First up, short interest in Fisker is soaring, and after the numerous highly-shorted stocks we’ve seen go to the moon this year, that’s worth noting. Below is Fisker’s short interest for reference.</p><p><blockquote>首先，对 Fisker 的空头兴趣正在飙升，在今年我们看到的众多高度做空的股票纷纷下跌之后，这一点值得注意。以下是菲斯克的空头利息，供参考。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd732eb0644d9370ff55d207057d6485\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"364\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Short interest has roughly quadrupled since February, and is rising all the time. The kinds of rallies that we’ve seen in Fisker can cause short squeezes because shorts on the wrong side of a parabolic rally can often panic buy to cover their shorts, leading to a short squeeze.</p><p><blockquote>自二月份以来，空头兴趣大约翻了两番，并且一直在上升。我们在菲斯克看到的那种反弹会导致空头挤压，因为抛物线反弹反面的空头往往会恐慌性买入来弥补空头，从而导致空头挤压。</blockquote></p><p> Fisker’s current rally lacks the volume of a short squeeze, so I firmly believe this rally is not a result of high short interest, but is instead buyers just buying the stock. If shorts throw in the towel, Fisker could squeeze a lot higher than it is today. To be clear, I’m not saying Fisker is the next short squeeze, but what I am saying is that 45M shares short is roughly seven days’ worth of normal volume, so it’s significant. I certainly also would not short Fisker at these levels for that reason.</p><p><blockquote>菲斯克目前的反弹缺乏空头挤压的成交量，因此我坚信这次反弹不是空头兴趣高的结果，而是买家刚刚买入股票的结果。如果空头认输，菲斯克的股价可能会比今天高得多。需要明确的是，我并不是说菲斯克是下一个做空对象，但我想说的是，4500 万股的做空量大约相当于七天的正常成交量，所以这意义重大。出于这个原因，我当然也不会在这些水平上做空菲斯克。</blockquote></p><p> In short, I do not believe Fisker is the next short squeeze candidate because squeezes usually occur when a stock is at or near a top, and thus most or all short sellers are underwater. Fisker isn't anywhere close to its former high, and given how tired the rally looks today, I see the odds of that occurring as low.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，我不认为菲斯克是下一个空头挤压候选人，因为挤压通常发生在股票处于或接近顶部时，因此大多数或所有卖空者都处于水下。菲斯克距离之前的高点还很远，考虑到今天的反弹看起来多么疲惫，我认为这种情况发生的可能性很低。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> From a fundamental perspective, Fisker continues to make progress towards making production a reality of its Ocean SUV, as evidenced in itsQ1 report. The company ended the quarter with $985 million in cash, which is good enough for about 10 quarters at the current run rate; in Q1, the company spent $29 million on operating activities, and $66 million in capex. The company also said the majority of the Ocean has been sourced, which is improving cost visibility as prior questions have become answers.</p><p><blockquote>从基本面角度来看，菲斯克在实现其海洋SUV的生产方面继续取得进展，正如其第一季度报告所证明的那样。该公司本季度末拥有 9.85 亿美元现金，按照目前的运行速度，这足够维持大约 10 个季度；第一季度，该公司在运营活动上花费了 2900 万美元，在资本支出上花费了 6600 万美元。该公司还表示，大部分海洋都是采购的，这提高了成本的可见性，因为之前的问题已经成为答案。</blockquote></p><p> I don’t think Fisker has unlimited runway in terms of cash, but it should have enough to get to production of the Ocean, which is still slated for late this year, or early next year. That’s very important because Fisker needs the cash to start rolling in fairly soon, or further capital raises will be necessary.</p><p><blockquote>我不认为菲斯克在现金方面有无限的发展空间，但它应该有足够的资金来制作《海洋》，该片仍定于今年年底或明年初上映。这一点非常重要，因为菲斯克需要现金尽快开始滚动，否则就需要进一步融资。</blockquote></p><p> Fisker says it has 16k reservations for Oceans at this point, but as we know, reservations for new vehicles are very low cost for the consumer, and don’t represent an obligation to buy. Given this, I take them with a grain of salt. But on the plus side, Fisker has done essentially no advertising, and I’d be willing to bet the vast majority of Americans have no idea what Fisker is. That indicates that there may be some legs to the Ocean, but we’ll have to wait and see.</p><p><blockquote>Fisker 表示，目前该公司已为 Oceans 预订了 1.6 万辆，但据我们所知，预订新车对消费者来说成本非常低，并不构成购买的义务。有鉴于此，我对它们持保留态度。但从好的方面来看，菲斯克基本上没有做过广告，我敢打赌，绝大多数美国人根本不知道菲斯克是什么。这表明可能会有一些通往海洋的腿，但我们还得拭目以待。</blockquote></p><p> Perhaps most importantly, Fisker has an ambitious plan to produce a sub-$30k EV, currently calledProject PEAR. The company has signed Foxconn to make the vehicle, which won’t be available for another two years or so. But it represents another step towards Fisker becoming more mainstream, and if the company can execute, it could grab big chunks of market share. I’ll caveat that producing sub-$30k EVs is no small task because the batteries are very expensive. This is why others have struggled to do the same thing, and I have no reason to think Fisker won’t struggle as well. However, if the Ocean is a success, and provides the cash to develop PEAR, Fisker could be off to the races. PEAR is just an idea at this point, so don’t get too excited, but Fisker certainly has grand plans.</p><p><blockquote>也许最重要的是，菲斯克有一个雄心勃勃的计划来生产一款售价低于 3 万美元的电动汽车，目前称为 Project PEAR。该公司已与富士康签约生产这款车，但这款车还要两年左右才能上市。但这代表着菲斯克走向更加主流的又一步，如果该公司能够执行，它可能会抢占大块市场份额。我要提醒的是，生产低于 3 万美元的电动汽车并非易事，因为电池非常昂贵。这就是为什么其他人都在努力做同样的事情，我没有理由认为菲斯克不会也在努力。然而，如果海洋是成功的，并提供了开发梨的现金，菲斯克可能会去参加比赛。PEAR 目前只是一个想法，所以不要太兴奋，但 Fisker 肯定有宏伟的计划。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation remains mixed</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值仍然好坏参半</b></blockquote></p><p> The tricky thing about valuing startups is that the targets – whether it is revenue or earnings – move all the time. In Fisker’s case, it is apparent that some targets were probably a bit optimistic, especially for revenue.</p><p><blockquote>对初创公司进行估值的棘手之处在于，目标——无论是收入还是盈利——一直在变化。就菲斯克而言，很明显，有些目标可能有点乐观，尤其是在收入方面。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52fe37a0a60e26d5c3aba548bd4b0b0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"166\"><span>Source:Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Seeking Alpha</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Estimates for the out years have come up slightly in the past month – likely due to analysts building PEAR into projections – but in the past six months, estimates are off by a third in some cases. You have to remember if you buy this stock that Fisker isn’t slated to receive<i>any</i>revenue until next year, and even then, progress will start slowly. But if Fisker does achieve $8+ billion in revenue by 2025, buying the stock today will have proven a prescient move. There are just so many steps between now and then that the ride will be extremely volatile to say the least.</p><p><blockquote>过去一个月，对未来几年的预测略有上升——可能是由于分析师将 PEAR 纳入预测——但在过去六个月中，在某些情况下，预测偏离了三分之一。你必须记住，如果你购买了菲斯克不打算收到的这只股票<i>任何</i>收入要到明年，即便如此，进展也会开始缓慢。但如果菲斯克到 2025 年确实实现 80 多亿美元的收入，那么今天购买该股票将被证明是一个有先见之明的举动。从现在到那时有太多的步骤，至少可以说，旅程将非常不稳定。</blockquote></p><p> That is illustrated nicely by EPS estimates.</p><p><blockquote>每股收益估计很好地说明了这一点。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/730bfe2971ecbf2c150c244c474bd7c7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\"><span>Source:Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Seeking Alpha</span></p></blockquote></p><p> EPS is almost certainly going to be negative for at least this year and next year, but if production ramps the way it should for Ocean, Fisker has an outside chance at hitting breakeven in 2023. If scale is achieved, we could see very strong EPS, with 2025 current at $3.72 per share, and 2026 at $4.95. If Ocean succeeds, and Fisker can produce PEAR in sufficient numbers, these estimates could become reality. But you can see the consternation among market participants in that a stock with $5 in EPS five years from now is trading for $18,<i>after</i>doubling in a month. In other words, the share price is pricing in the fact that these estimates are simply guesses at this point. Said another way, if there was some certainty around $5 in EPS in 2026, it would be reasonable to see a multiple of 10 or 12 on that number, or a share price of $50 to $60. We're at a small fraction of that, which is pricing in the massive uncertainty of the company achieving these results.</p><p><blockquote>几乎可以肯定，至少今年和明年的每股收益将为负，但如果 Ocean 的产量像应有的那样增加，Fisker 就有机会在 2023 年实现盈亏平衡。如果实现规模，我们可能会看到非常强劲的每股收益，2025 年目前为每股 3.72 美元，2026 年为每股 4.95 美元。如果 Ocean 取得成功，并且 Fisker 能够生产足够数量的梨，这些估计可能会成为现实。但你可以看到市场参与者的恐慌，因为五年后每股收益为 5 美元的股票现在交易价格为 18 美元，<i>之后</i>一个月翻倍。换句话说，股价正在定价，因为这些估计在这一点上只是猜测。换句话说，如果 2026 年每股收益在 5 美元左右有一定的确定性，那么该数字的倍数是 10 或 12，或者股价在 50 至 60 美元之间是合理的。我们只占其中的一小部分，这是对公司实现这些结果的巨大不确定性进行定价。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> The bottom line on Fisker is that the company is so far from making any sort of meaningful revenue – and even further from profits – that it is mostly a momentum trade as a result. The stock has doubled in the past month, and I see cracks in the rally’s strength, so I think it is once again time to take profits and wait for a lower re-entry price.</p><p><blockquote>菲斯克的底线是，该公司远未产生任何有意义的收入，甚至更未产生利润，因此它主要是一种动量交易。该股在过去一个月里翻了一番，我看到了反弹的强度出现了裂缝，因此我认为又到了获利了结并等待更低的重新入场价格的时候了。</blockquote></p><p> I think Fisker has the potential to be a winner in the long-term, but the path to get there is fraught with obstacles. I once again see potential and current price fairly balanced, and for that reason, I’m back to neutral on Fisker.</p><p><blockquote>我认为菲斯克有潜力成为长期赢家，但实现这一目标的道路充满了障碍。我再次看到潜在价格和当前价格相当平衡，因此，我对菲斯克的看法又回到了中性。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Fisker The Next Short Squeeze?<blockquote>菲斯克是下一个空头挤压吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Fisker The Next Short Squeeze?<blockquote>菲斯克是下一个空头挤压吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-16 10:46</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>FSR is up 72% since my bullish call just a month ago.</li>  <li>With that sort of move, caution is warranted on further gains.</li>  <li>New fundamental developments lay out the future path for Fisker.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8cfc5757fb9bcd2dad4f529e916092c\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>jonathanfilskov-photography/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>自从我一个月前的看涨看涨期权以来，FSR 上涨了 72%。</li><li>有了这样的举动，就有必要对进一步上涨保持谨慎。</li><li>新的基本发展为菲斯克规划了未来的道路。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>jonathanfilskov-摄影/iStock via Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The electric vehicle space has been, let’s say, volatile over the past year or so. OG&nbsp;<b>Tesla</b>(TSLA) continues to dwarf all other comers in terms of market cap, but there are numerous new competitors, many of which are so new, they don’t even have any revenue yet. One such example is the reincarnated&nbsp;<b>Fisker Inc.</b>(FSR), which is founder Henrik Fisker’s second go at making an electric automaker.</p><p><blockquote>可以说，在过去一年左右的时间里，电动汽车领域一直不稳定。和<b>特斯拉</b>(特斯拉）在市值方面继续让所有其他竞争对手相形见绌，但新的竞争对手不胜枚举，其中许多竞争对手还很新，甚至还没有任何收入。转世就是这样一个例子<b>菲斯克公司。</b>(FSR)，这是创始人亨里克-菲斯克（Henrik Fisker）第二次尝试创建电动汽车制造商。</blockquote></p><p> I wrote apieceon Fisker about a month ago when the share price was $10.69, saying it was a great time to buy. Shares are 72% higher than that today – a<i>massive</i>move in the space of four weeks – but such is the nature of the game in electric vehicles. Up 72%, the big question is, do you continue to hold? In this case, I think the answer is “no”, but with some caveats.</p><p><blockquote>大约一个月前，当股价为 10.69 美元时，我给 apieceon Fisker 写了一封信，说现在是买入的好时机。股价比今天上涨 72% – a<i>巨大的</i>在四周内移动——但这就是电动汽车的本质。上涨72%，最大的问题是，你会继续持有吗？在这种情况下，我认为答案是 “否”，但有一些注意事项。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b7e34a03823eba6302e3194baa808ce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"615\"><span>Source: StockCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：股票图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> First, let’s take a look at the chart, which highlights just how volatile this thing really is. Prior support in the low-$14s was lost during the last downturn, and the stock eventually bottomed at $9.61. Since then, shares have<i>doubled</i>, and we’ve seen a complete reset in terms of sentiment for Fisker. One thing you must understand is that Fisker and other zero-revenue EV makers trade on momentum and sentiment rather than fundamentals, so you must be nimble.</p><p><blockquote>首先，让我们来看看图表，它突出了这个东西到底有多么不稳定。此前14美元低点的支撑位在上次低迷期间失去，该股最终触底9.61美元。此后，股票<i>双倍</i>我们看到菲斯克的情绪完全重置。你必须明白的一件事是，菲斯克和其他零收入电动汽车制造商的交易取决于势头和情绪，而不是基本面，所以你必须灵活。</blockquote></p><p> I would look for that low-$14 area to hold as support on the next pullback, but I’ll also note that it isn’t all that strong, having failed miserably last time there was a selloff. But if the stock is going to bounce, that will likely be the area it will happen.</p><p><blockquote>我会将 14 美元的低点区域作为下一次回调的支撑，但我也会注意到，该区域并不那么强劲，上次抛售时曾惨败。但如果股票要反弹，那很可能就是反弹的领域。</blockquote></p><p> I’ll also note the PPO is very overbought, and is very close to the same levels where prior rallies have lost steam and eventually rolled over. That means the odds of a further rally from here are greatly diminishing, as the bulls have made a Herculean push already, and there are signs the push is ending, at least temporarily.</p><p><blockquote>我还要指出，PPO 非常超买，非常接近之前反弹失去动力并最终翻盘的水平。这意味着从这里进一步反弹的可能性正在大大降低，因为多头已经做出了巨大的推动，而且有迹象表明推动正在结束，至少是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p> The 14-day RSI is showing similar behavior, as it is rolling over after reaching extreme overbought conditions. The point of all of this is that this stock has doubled in the space of a month, and the rally looks tired. I don’t see a reasonable path meaningfully higher here, but in the EV space, anything can happen. But the bottom line is that the rally looks tired to me, and I think the most prudent course of action is to take profits and wait for a lower re-entry.</p><p><blockquote>14 天 RSI 也表现出类似的行为，因为它在达到极端超买条件后正在翻转。这一切的要点是，这只股票在一个月的时间里翻了一番，而且涨势看起来很疲惫。我在这里看不到一条合理的更高路径，但在电动汽车领域，任何事情都可能发生。但底线是，反弹在我看来很疲惫，我认为最谨慎的做法是获利了结并等待更低的重新进入。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New developments</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新发展</b></blockquote></p><p> There have been some interesting developments since my last update on Fisker, and ones that have the potential to drive the share price over time.</p><p><blockquote>自从我上次更新 Fisker 以来，出现了一些有趣的进展，并且随着时间的推移，这些进展有可能推动股价。</blockquote></p><p> First up, short interest in Fisker is soaring, and after the numerous highly-shorted stocks we’ve seen go to the moon this year, that’s worth noting. Below is Fisker’s short interest for reference.</p><p><blockquote>首先，对 Fisker 的空头兴趣正在飙升，在今年我们看到的众多高度做空的股票纷纷下跌之后，这一点值得注意。以下是菲斯克的空头利息，供参考。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd732eb0644d9370ff55d207057d6485\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"364\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Short interest has roughly quadrupled since February, and is rising all the time. The kinds of rallies that we’ve seen in Fisker can cause short squeezes because shorts on the wrong side of a parabolic rally can often panic buy to cover their shorts, leading to a short squeeze.</p><p><blockquote>自二月份以来，空头兴趣大约翻了两番，并且一直在上升。我们在菲斯克看到的那种反弹会导致空头挤压，因为抛物线反弹反面的空头往往会恐慌性买入来弥补空头，从而导致空头挤压。</blockquote></p><p> Fisker’s current rally lacks the volume of a short squeeze, so I firmly believe this rally is not a result of high short interest, but is instead buyers just buying the stock. If shorts throw in the towel, Fisker could squeeze a lot higher than it is today. To be clear, I’m not saying Fisker is the next short squeeze, but what I am saying is that 45M shares short is roughly seven days’ worth of normal volume, so it’s significant. I certainly also would not short Fisker at these levels for that reason.</p><p><blockquote>菲斯克目前的反弹缺乏空头挤压的成交量，因此我坚信这次反弹不是空头兴趣高的结果，而是买家刚刚买入股票的结果。如果空头认输，菲斯克的股价可能会比今天高得多。需要明确的是，我并不是说菲斯克是下一个做空对象，但我想说的是，4500 万股的做空量大约相当于七天的正常成交量，所以这意义重大。出于这个原因，我当然也不会在这些水平上做空菲斯克。</blockquote></p><p> In short, I do not believe Fisker is the next short squeeze candidate because squeezes usually occur when a stock is at or near a top, and thus most or all short sellers are underwater. Fisker isn't anywhere close to its former high, and given how tired the rally looks today, I see the odds of that occurring as low.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，我不认为菲斯克是下一个空头挤压候选人，因为挤压通常发生在股票处于或接近顶部时，因此大多数或所有卖空者都处于水下。菲斯克距离之前的高点还很远，考虑到今天的反弹看起来多么疲惫，我认为这种情况发生的可能性很低。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> From a fundamental perspective, Fisker continues to make progress towards making production a reality of its Ocean SUV, as evidenced in itsQ1 report. The company ended the quarter with $985 million in cash, which is good enough for about 10 quarters at the current run rate; in Q1, the company spent $29 million on operating activities, and $66 million in capex. The company also said the majority of the Ocean has been sourced, which is improving cost visibility as prior questions have become answers.</p><p><blockquote>从基本面角度来看，菲斯克在实现其海洋SUV的生产方面继续取得进展，正如其第一季度报告所证明的那样。该公司本季度末拥有 9.85 亿美元现金，按照目前的运行速度，这足够维持大约 10 个季度；第一季度，该公司在运营活动上花费了 2900 万美元，在资本支出上花费了 6600 万美元。该公司还表示，大部分海洋都是采购的，这提高了成本的可见性，因为之前的问题已经成为答案。</blockquote></p><p> I don’t think Fisker has unlimited runway in terms of cash, but it should have enough to get to production of the Ocean, which is still slated for late this year, or early next year. That’s very important because Fisker needs the cash to start rolling in fairly soon, or further capital raises will be necessary.</p><p><blockquote>我不认为菲斯克在现金方面有无限的发展空间，但它应该有足够的资金来制作《海洋》，该片仍定于今年年底或明年初上映。这一点非常重要，因为菲斯克需要现金尽快开始滚动，否则就需要进一步融资。</blockquote></p><p> Fisker says it has 16k reservations for Oceans at this point, but as we know, reservations for new vehicles are very low cost for the consumer, and don’t represent an obligation to buy. Given this, I take them with a grain of salt. But on the plus side, Fisker has done essentially no advertising, and I’d be willing to bet the vast majority of Americans have no idea what Fisker is. That indicates that there may be some legs to the Ocean, but we’ll have to wait and see.</p><p><blockquote>Fisker 表示，目前该公司已为 Oceans 预订了 1.6 万辆，但据我们所知，预订新车对消费者来说成本非常低，并不构成购买的义务。有鉴于此，我对它们持保留态度。但从好的方面来看，菲斯克基本上没有做过广告，我敢打赌，绝大多数美国人根本不知道菲斯克是什么。这表明可能会有一些通往海洋的腿，但我们还得拭目以待。</blockquote></p><p> Perhaps most importantly, Fisker has an ambitious plan to produce a sub-$30k EV, currently calledProject PEAR. The company has signed Foxconn to make the vehicle, which won’t be available for another two years or so. But it represents another step towards Fisker becoming more mainstream, and if the company can execute, it could grab big chunks of market share. I’ll caveat that producing sub-$30k EVs is no small task because the batteries are very expensive. This is why others have struggled to do the same thing, and I have no reason to think Fisker won’t struggle as well. However, if the Ocean is a success, and provides the cash to develop PEAR, Fisker could be off to the races. PEAR is just an idea at this point, so don’t get too excited, but Fisker certainly has grand plans.</p><p><blockquote>也许最重要的是，菲斯克有一个雄心勃勃的计划来生产一款售价低于 3 万美元的电动汽车，目前称为 Project PEAR。该公司已与富士康签约生产这款车，但这款车还要两年左右才能上市。但这代表着菲斯克走向更加主流的又一步，如果该公司能够执行，它可能会抢占大块市场份额。我要提醒的是，生产低于 3 万美元的电动汽车并非易事，因为电池非常昂贵。这就是为什么其他人都在努力做同样的事情，我没有理由认为菲斯克不会也在努力。然而，如果海洋是成功的，并提供了开发梨的现金，菲斯克可能会去参加比赛。PEAR 目前只是一个想法，所以不要太兴奋，但 Fisker 肯定有宏伟的计划。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation remains mixed</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值仍然好坏参半</b></blockquote></p><p> The tricky thing about valuing startups is that the targets – whether it is revenue or earnings – move all the time. In Fisker’s case, it is apparent that some targets were probably a bit optimistic, especially for revenue.</p><p><blockquote>对初创公司进行估值的棘手之处在于，目标——无论是收入还是盈利——一直在变化。就菲斯克而言，很明显，有些目标可能有点乐观，尤其是在收入方面。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52fe37a0a60e26d5c3aba548bd4b0b0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"166\"><span>Source:Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Seeking Alpha</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Estimates for the out years have come up slightly in the past month – likely due to analysts building PEAR into projections – but in the past six months, estimates are off by a third in some cases. You have to remember if you buy this stock that Fisker isn’t slated to receive<i>any</i>revenue until next year, and even then, progress will start slowly. But if Fisker does achieve $8+ billion in revenue by 2025, buying the stock today will have proven a prescient move. There are just so many steps between now and then that the ride will be extremely volatile to say the least.</p><p><blockquote>过去一个月，对未来几年的预测略有上升——可能是由于分析师将 PEAR 纳入预测——但在过去六个月中，在某些情况下，预测偏离了三分之一。你必须记住，如果你购买了菲斯克不打算收到的这只股票<i>任何</i>收入要到明年，即便如此，进展也会开始缓慢。但如果菲斯克到 2025 年确实实现 80 多亿美元的收入，那么今天购买该股票将被证明是一个有先见之明的举动。从现在到那时有太多的步骤，至少可以说，旅程将非常不稳定。</blockquote></p><p> That is illustrated nicely by EPS estimates.</p><p><blockquote>每股收益估计很好地说明了这一点。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/730bfe2971ecbf2c150c244c474bd7c7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\"><span>Source:Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Seeking Alpha</span></p></blockquote></p><p> EPS is almost certainly going to be negative for at least this year and next year, but if production ramps the way it should for Ocean, Fisker has an outside chance at hitting breakeven in 2023. If scale is achieved, we could see very strong EPS, with 2025 current at $3.72 per share, and 2026 at $4.95. If Ocean succeeds, and Fisker can produce PEAR in sufficient numbers, these estimates could become reality. But you can see the consternation among market participants in that a stock with $5 in EPS five years from now is trading for $18,<i>after</i>doubling in a month. In other words, the share price is pricing in the fact that these estimates are simply guesses at this point. Said another way, if there was some certainty around $5 in EPS in 2026, it would be reasonable to see a multiple of 10 or 12 on that number, or a share price of $50 to $60. We're at a small fraction of that, which is pricing in the massive uncertainty of the company achieving these results.</p><p><blockquote>几乎可以肯定，至少今年和明年的每股收益将为负，但如果 Ocean 的产量像应有的那样增加，Fisker 就有机会在 2023 年实现盈亏平衡。如果实现规模，我们可能会看到非常强劲的每股收益，2025 年目前为每股 3.72 美元，2026 年为每股 4.95 美元。如果 Ocean 取得成功，并且 Fisker 能够生产足够数量的梨，这些估计可能会成为现实。但你可以看到市场参与者的恐慌，因为五年后每股收益为 5 美元的股票现在交易价格为 18 美元，<i>之后</i>一个月翻倍。换句话说，股价正在定价，因为这些估计在这一点上只是猜测。换句话说，如果 2026 年每股收益在 5 美元左右有一定的确定性，那么该数字的倍数是 10 或 12，或者股价在 50 至 60 美元之间是合理的。我们只占其中的一小部分，这是对公司实现这些结果的巨大不确定性进行定价。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> The bottom line on Fisker is that the company is so far from making any sort of meaningful revenue – and even further from profits – that it is mostly a momentum trade as a result. The stock has doubled in the past month, and I see cracks in the rally’s strength, so I think it is once again time to take profits and wait for a lower re-entry price.</p><p><blockquote>菲斯克的底线是，该公司远未产生任何有意义的收入，甚至更未产生利润，因此它主要是一种动量交易。该股在过去一个月里翻了一番，我看到了反弹的强度出现了裂缝，因此我认为又到了获利了结并等待更低的重新入场价格的时候了。</blockquote></p><p> I think Fisker has the potential to be a winner in the long-term, but the path to get there is fraught with obstacles. I once again see potential and current price fairly balanced, and for that reason, I’m back to neutral on Fisker.</p><p><blockquote>我认为菲斯克有潜力成为长期赢家，但实现这一目标的道路充满了障碍。我再次看到潜在价格和当前价格相当平衡，因此，我对菲斯克的看法又回到了中性。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434973-is-fisker-the-next-short-squeeze\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"FSR":"菲斯克"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434973-is-fisker-the-next-short-squeeze","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141264092","content_text":"Summary\n\nFSR is up 72% since my bullish call just a month ago.\nWith that sort of move, caution is warranted on further gains.\nNew fundamental developments lay out the future path for Fisker.\n\njonathanfilskov-photography/iStock via Getty Images\nThe electric vehicle space has been, let’s say, volatile over the past year or so. OG Tesla(TSLA) continues to dwarf all other comers in terms of market cap, but there are numerous new competitors, many of which are so new, they don’t even have any revenue yet. One such example is the reincarnated Fisker Inc.(FSR), which is founder Henrik Fisker’s second go at making an electric automaker.\nI wrote apieceon Fisker about a month ago when the share price was $10.69, saying it was a great time to buy. Shares are 72% higher than that today – amassivemove in the space of four weeks – but such is the nature of the game in electric vehicles. Up 72%, the big question is, do you continue to hold? In this case, I think the answer is “no”, but with some caveats.\nSource: StockCharts\nFirst, let’s take a look at the chart, which highlights just how volatile this thing really is. Prior support in the low-$14s was lost during the last downturn, and the stock eventually bottomed at $9.61. Since then, shares havedoubled, and we’ve seen a complete reset in terms of sentiment for Fisker. One thing you must understand is that Fisker and other zero-revenue EV makers trade on momentum and sentiment rather than fundamentals, so you must be nimble.\nI would look for that low-$14 area to hold as support on the next pullback, but I’ll also note that it isn’t all that strong, having failed miserably last time there was a selloff. But if the stock is going to bounce, that will likely be the area it will happen.\nI’ll also note the PPO is very overbought, and is very close to the same levels where prior rallies have lost steam and eventually rolled over. That means the odds of a further rally from here are greatly diminishing, as the bulls have made a Herculean push already, and there are signs the push is ending, at least temporarily.\nThe 14-day RSI is showing similar behavior, as it is rolling over after reaching extreme overbought conditions. The point of all of this is that this stock has doubled in the space of a month, and the rally looks tired. I don’t see a reasonable path meaningfully higher here, but in the EV space, anything can happen. But the bottom line is that the rally looks tired to me, and I think the most prudent course of action is to take profits and wait for a lower re-entry.\nNew developments\nThere have been some interesting developments since my last update on Fisker, and ones that have the potential to drive the share price over time.\nFirst up, short interest in Fisker is soaring, and after the numerous highly-shorted stocks we’ve seen go to the moon this year, that’s worth noting. Below is Fisker’s short interest for reference.\nSource: YCharts\nShort interest has roughly quadrupled since February, and is rising all the time. The kinds of rallies that we’ve seen in Fisker can cause short squeezes because shorts on the wrong side of a parabolic rally can often panic buy to cover their shorts, leading to a short squeeze.\nFisker’s current rally lacks the volume of a short squeeze, so I firmly believe this rally is not a result of high short interest, but is instead buyers just buying the stock. If shorts throw in the towel, Fisker could squeeze a lot higher than it is today. To be clear, I’m not saying Fisker is the next short squeeze, but what I am saying is that 45M shares short is roughly seven days’ worth of normal volume, so it’s significant. I certainly also would not short Fisker at these levels for that reason.\nIn short, I do not believe Fisker is the next short squeeze candidate because squeezes usually occur when a stock is at or near a top, and thus most or all short sellers are underwater. Fisker isn't anywhere close to its former high, and given how tired the rally looks today, I see the odds of that occurring as low.\nFrom a fundamental perspective, Fisker continues to make progress towards making production a reality of its Ocean SUV, as evidenced in itsQ1 report. The company ended the quarter with $985 million in cash, which is good enough for about 10 quarters at the current run rate; in Q1, the company spent $29 million on operating activities, and $66 million in capex. The company also said the majority of the Ocean has been sourced, which is improving cost visibility as prior questions have become answers.\nI don’t think Fisker has unlimited runway in terms of cash, but it should have enough to get to production of the Ocean, which is still slated for late this year, or early next year. That’s very important because Fisker needs the cash to start rolling in fairly soon, or further capital raises will be necessary.\nFisker says it has 16k reservations for Oceans at this point, but as we know, reservations for new vehicles are very low cost for the consumer, and don’t represent an obligation to buy. Given this, I take them with a grain of salt. But on the plus side, Fisker has done essentially no advertising, and I’d be willing to bet the vast majority of Americans have no idea what Fisker is. That indicates that there may be some legs to the Ocean, but we’ll have to wait and see.\nPerhaps most importantly, Fisker has an ambitious plan to produce a sub-$30k EV, currently calledProject PEAR. The company has signed Foxconn to make the vehicle, which won’t be available for another two years or so. But it represents another step towards Fisker becoming more mainstream, and if the company can execute, it could grab big chunks of market share. I’ll caveat that producing sub-$30k EVs is no small task because the batteries are very expensive. This is why others have struggled to do the same thing, and I have no reason to think Fisker won’t struggle as well. However, if the Ocean is a success, and provides the cash to develop PEAR, Fisker could be off to the races. PEAR is just an idea at this point, so don’t get too excited, but Fisker certainly has grand plans.\nValuation remains mixed\nThe tricky thing about valuing startups is that the targets – whether it is revenue or earnings – move all the time. In Fisker’s case, it is apparent that some targets were probably a bit optimistic, especially for revenue.\nSource:Seeking Alpha\nEstimates for the out years have come up slightly in the past month – likely due to analysts building PEAR into projections – but in the past six months, estimates are off by a third in some cases. You have to remember if you buy this stock that Fisker isn’t slated to receiveanyrevenue until next year, and even then, progress will start slowly. But if Fisker does achieve $8+ billion in revenue by 2025, buying the stock today will have proven a prescient move. There are just so many steps between now and then that the ride will be extremely volatile to say the least.\nThat is illustrated nicely by EPS estimates.\nSource:Seeking Alpha\nEPS is almost certainly going to be negative for at least this year and next year, but if production ramps the way it should for Ocean, Fisker has an outside chance at hitting breakeven in 2023. If scale is achieved, we could see very strong EPS, with 2025 current at $3.72 per share, and 2026 at $4.95. If Ocean succeeds, and Fisker can produce PEAR in sufficient numbers, these estimates could become reality. But you can see the consternation among market participants in that a stock with $5 in EPS five years from now is trading for $18,afterdoubling in a month. In other words, the share price is pricing in the fact that these estimates are simply guesses at this point. Said another way, if there was some certainty around $5 in EPS in 2026, it would be reasonable to see a multiple of 10 or 12 on that number, or a share price of $50 to $60. We're at a small fraction of that, which is pricing in the massive uncertainty of the company achieving these results.\nFinal thoughts\nThe bottom line on Fisker is that the company is so far from making any sort of meaningful revenue – and even further from profits – that it is mostly a momentum trade as a result. The stock has doubled in the past month, and I see cracks in the rally’s strength, so I think it is once again time to take profits and wait for a lower re-entry price.\nI think Fisker has the potential to be a winner in the long-term, but the path to get there is fraught with obstacles. I once again see potential and current price fairly balanced, and for that reason, I’m back to neutral on Fisker.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"FSR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1024,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":184677732,"gmtCreate":1623714694526,"gmtModify":1631889872726,"author":{"id":"3582016561552186","authorId":"3582016561552186","name":"KMK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef525a9485b7272e73ab442de514d467","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016561552186","authorIdStr":"3582016561552186"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hmm....","listText":"Hmm....","text":"Hmm....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/184677732","repostId":"2143382517","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1057,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185705192,"gmtCreate":1623671548316,"gmtModify":1631889872737,"author":{"id":"3582016561552186","authorId":"3582016561552186","name":"KMK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef525a9485b7272e73ab442de514d467","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016561552186","authorIdStr":"3582016561552186"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good news for covid too","listText":"Good news for covid too","text":"Good news for covid too","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185705192","repostId":"2143609782","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1220,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182691165,"gmtCreate":1623566534957,"gmtModify":1631889872768,"author":{"id":"3582016561552186","authorId":"3582016561552186","name":"KMK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef525a9485b7272e73ab442de514d467","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016561552186","authorIdStr":"3582016561552186"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ape stock","listText":"Ape stock","text":"Ape stock","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/182691165","repostId":"1185020128","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185020128","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623537503,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1185020128?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-13 06:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Meme Stock Soars 1,000% To Lead These Two Top Small Cap Stock Plays<blockquote>Meme 股票飙升 1,000%，领跑这两只顶级小盘股</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185020128","media":"investors","summary":"GameStop may be the top holding in SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Value, but that's not the only reason the ","content":"<p>GameStop may be the top holding in SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Value, but that's not the only reason the ETF is beating its growth-stock counterpart.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站可能是 SPDR S&amp;P 600 小盘股价值的最大持股，但这并不是该 ETF 击败成长型股票的唯一原因。</blockquote></p><p> The $4.2 billion value fund tracks the S&amp;P SmallCap 600 Value Index (SLYV), composed of stocks with the strongest value traits based on book value to price ratio, earnings to price ratio, and sales to price ratio. SLYV rallied 32% this year through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>这只价值 42 亿美元的价值基金追踪标准普尔小型股 600 价值指数 (SLYV)，该指数由基于账面市盈率、市盈率和销售率的最强价值特征的股票组成。截至周四收盘，SLYV 今年上涨了 32%。</blockquote></p><p> That more than doubles the return of its growth stock counterpart, SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth (SLYG), which is up 15%. The index SLYG tracks includes stocks with the strongest growth traits based on sales growth, earnings change to price and momentum.</p><p><blockquote>这比其成长型股票 SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth (SLYG) 的回报率增加了一倍多，后者上涨了 15%。SLYG 跟踪的指数包括基于销售增长、盈利对价格和势头的变化而具有最强增长特征的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Back to SLYV, financials accounted for the biggest sector weight at 24% of assets. Industrials weighed in at about 17%, consumer discretionary 15% and real estate 10%. Information technology was next at 8% and materials, energy and health care, 6% each.&nbsp;Smaller positions in consumer staples, utilities and communication services made up the rest.</p><p><blockquote>回到 SLYV，金融业占该行业权重最大，占资产的 24%。工业约占17%，非必需消费品15%，房地产10%。信息技术紧随其后，占8%，材料、能源和医疗保健各占6%。消费品、公用事业和通信服务等较小的头寸占其余头寸。</blockquote></p><p> SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Value is in IBD's ETF Leaders, but SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth is not.</p><p><blockquote>SPDR S&amp;P 600 小盘股价值位居 IBD ETF 领先地位，但 SPDR S&amp;P 600 小盘股增长并非如此。</blockquote></p><p> <b>GameStop Stock Leads</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站股票领先</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>GameStop</b>(GME),<b>Macy's</b>(M),<b>PDC Energy</b>(PDCE),<b>Resideo Technologies</b>(REZI) and<b>BankUnited</b>(BKU) were the top five holdings as of Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站</b>（GME），<b>梅西百货</b>（米），<b>PDC能源</b>（PDCE），<b>Resideo技术公司</b>（雷齐）和<b>联合银行</b>（BKU）是截至周三的前五大持股。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Pacific Premier Bancorp</b>(PPBI),<b>Bed Bath &amp; Beyond</b>(BBBY),<b>Ameris Bancorp</b>(ABCB),<b>First Hawaiian</b>(FHB) and<b>Insight Enterprises</b>(NSIT) rounded out the top 10.</p><p><blockquote><b>太平洋卓越银行</b>（PPBI），<b>床浴及其他</b>（BBBY），<b>美国银行</b>（ABCB），<b>第一个夏威夷人</b>（FHB）和<b>洞察企业</b>（NSIT）跻身前10名。</blockquote></p><p> GameStop has undergone wide swings this year. It rocketed about 2,500% early this year amid theshort-squeeze rallyfueled by the Reddit/WallStreetBets crowd.GME stockthen crashed 92% from a Jan. 28 high to its mid-February low. That was followed by an 805% surge the next three weeks, and a 66% drop over the next two weeks.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站今年经历了很大的波动。今年早些时候，在 Reddit/WallStreetBets crowd.GME 引发的空头挤压反弹中，该股飙升约 2,500%。随后，GME 股票从 1 月 28 日的高点暴跌 92%，跌至 2 月中旬的低点。随后在接下来的三周内飙升了 805%，在接下来的两周内下降了 66%。</blockquote></p><p> Action had been relatively subdued since, until Thursday's 27% dive. Even after that, GameStop stock was up 1,070% year to date through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>此后，股价一直相对低迷，直到周四暴跌 27%。即便如此，截至周四收盘，游戏驿站股价今年迄今已上涨 1,070%。</blockquote></p><p> Could GME be inflating SLYV's performance? Certainly, given its quadruple-digit gain. But a look at SLYG's portfolio is interesting. GameStop stock is also the top holding in the growth stock ETF, though the rest of the top 10 differ vastly.</p><p><blockquote>GME 会夸大 SLYV 的业绩吗？当然，考虑到其四位数的增益。但看看 SLYG 的投资组合很有趣。游戏驿站股票也是成长型股票 ETF 中持有量最大的股票，尽管前 10 名中的其他股票差异很大。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Second Meme Stock In Top 10</b></p><p><blockquote><b>前 10 名中的第二只模因股票</b></blockquote></p><p> PDC Energy, up 130%, saw the next biggest gain in the top 10. The Colorado-based oil and gas explorer has a 97Relative Strength Rating, which mean it's in the top 3% of all stocks. Its relative strength line is at a 52-week high, a bullish sign.</p><p><blockquote>PDC Energy 上涨 130%，在前 10 名中涨幅第二大。这家总部位于科罗拉多州的石油和天然气勘探公司的相对实力评级为 97，这意味着它在所有股票中排名前 3%。其相对强弱线处于 52 周高点，这是一个看涨信号。</blockquote></p><p> Bed Bath &amp; Beyond, another meme stock, is up 78% this year. Shares surged more than 200% in January, amid a spate of wild double-digit swings. BBBY stock then gave back the bulk of its gains.</p><p><blockquote>另一只模因股票 Bed Bath &amp; Beyond 今年上涨了 78%。1 月份，股价飙升超过 200%，出现了一系列两位数的剧烈波动。BBBY 股票随后回吐了大部分涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> But the home goods retailer appears to be back on the radar of the WallStreetBets discussion group. On June 2, Bed Bath &amp; Beyond soared 62% before diving 28% the next session.</p><p><blockquote>但这家家居用品零售商似乎又回到了 WallStreetBets 讨论组的视线中。6 月 2 日，Bed Bath &amp; Beyond 飙升 62%，然后在接下来的交易日暴跌 28%。</blockquote></p><p> The rest of the top 10 stocks have also outperformed the broader market. Macy's is up 68% year to date, while Resideo, Pacific Premier and Ameris have risen more than 40% each. The lowest gainer, bank holding company First Hawaiian, has advanced 20%. The S&amp;P 500 held a 13% gain through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>前 10 名股票的其余表现也优于大盘。梅西百货今年迄今已上涨 68%，而 Resideo、Pacific Premier 和 Ameris 的股价均上涨超过 40%。涨幅最低的银行控股公司 First Hawaiian 上涨了 20%。截至周四收盘，标普500上涨 13%。</blockquote></p><p> SLYV remains in potential buy range from an 87.29entryof acup with handle, according toMarketSmithchart analysis.&nbsp;SLYV and SLYG charge a 0.15% expense ratio.</p><p><blockquote>根据 MarketSmithChart 分析，SLYV 仍处于带手柄的 acup 的潜在买入区间，为 87.29。 SLYV 和 SLYG 收取 0.15% 的费用率。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610449120050","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Meme Stock Soars 1,000% To Lead These Two Top Small Cap Stock Plays<blockquote>Meme 股票飙升 1,000%，领跑这两只顶级小盘股</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMeme Stock Soars 1,000% To Lead These Two Top Small Cap Stock Plays<blockquote>Meme 股票飙升 1,000%，领跑这两只顶级小盘股</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">investors</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-13 06:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>GameStop may be the top holding in SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Value, but that's not the only reason the ETF is beating its growth-stock counterpart.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站可能是 SPDR S&amp;P 600 小盘股价值的最大持股，但这并不是该 ETF 击败成长型股票的唯一原因。</blockquote></p><p> The $4.2 billion value fund tracks the S&amp;P SmallCap 600 Value Index (SLYV), composed of stocks with the strongest value traits based on book value to price ratio, earnings to price ratio, and sales to price ratio. SLYV rallied 32% this year through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>这只价值 42 亿美元的价值基金追踪标准普尔小型股 600 价值指数 (SLYV)，该指数由基于账面市盈率、市盈率和销售率的最强价值特征的股票组成。截至周四收盘，SLYV 今年上涨了 32%。</blockquote></p><p> That more than doubles the return of its growth stock counterpart, SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth (SLYG), which is up 15%. The index SLYG tracks includes stocks with the strongest growth traits based on sales growth, earnings change to price and momentum.</p><p><blockquote>这比其成长型股票 SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth (SLYG) 的回报率增加了一倍多，后者上涨了 15%。SLYG 跟踪的指数包括基于销售增长、盈利对价格和势头的变化而具有最强增长特征的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Back to SLYV, financials accounted for the biggest sector weight at 24% of assets. Industrials weighed in at about 17%, consumer discretionary 15% and real estate 10%. Information technology was next at 8% and materials, energy and health care, 6% each.&nbsp;Smaller positions in consumer staples, utilities and communication services made up the rest.</p><p><blockquote>回到 SLYV，金融业占该行业权重最大，占资产的 24%。工业约占17%，非必需消费品15%，房地产10%。信息技术紧随其后，占8%，材料、能源和医疗保健各占6%。消费品、公用事业和通信服务等较小的头寸占其余头寸。</blockquote></p><p> SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Value is in IBD's ETF Leaders, but SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth is not.</p><p><blockquote>SPDR S&amp;P 600 小盘股价值位居 IBD ETF 领先地位，但 SPDR S&amp;P 600 小盘股增长并非如此。</blockquote></p><p> <b>GameStop Stock Leads</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站股票领先</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>GameStop</b>(GME),<b>Macy's</b>(M),<b>PDC Energy</b>(PDCE),<b>Resideo Technologies</b>(REZI) and<b>BankUnited</b>(BKU) were the top five holdings as of Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站</b>（GME），<b>梅西百货</b>（米），<b>PDC能源</b>（PDCE），<b>Resideo技术公司</b>（雷齐）和<b>联合银行</b>（BKU）是截至周三的前五大持股。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Pacific Premier Bancorp</b>(PPBI),<b>Bed Bath &amp; Beyond</b>(BBBY),<b>Ameris Bancorp</b>(ABCB),<b>First Hawaiian</b>(FHB) and<b>Insight Enterprises</b>(NSIT) rounded out the top 10.</p><p><blockquote><b>太平洋卓越银行</b>（PPBI），<b>床浴及其他</b>（BBBY），<b>美国银行</b>（ABCB），<b>第一个夏威夷人</b>（FHB）和<b>洞察企业</b>（NSIT）跻身前10名。</blockquote></p><p> GameStop has undergone wide swings this year. It rocketed about 2,500% early this year amid theshort-squeeze rallyfueled by the Reddit/WallStreetBets crowd.GME stockthen crashed 92% from a Jan. 28 high to its mid-February low. That was followed by an 805% surge the next three weeks, and a 66% drop over the next two weeks.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站今年经历了很大的波动。今年早些时候，在 Reddit/WallStreetBets crowd.GME 引发的空头挤压反弹中，该股飙升约 2,500%。随后，GME 股票从 1 月 28 日的高点暴跌 92%，跌至 2 月中旬的低点。随后在接下来的三周内飙升了 805%，在接下来的两周内下降了 66%。</blockquote></p><p> Action had been relatively subdued since, until Thursday's 27% dive. Even after that, GameStop stock was up 1,070% year to date through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>此后，股价一直相对低迷，直到周四暴跌 27%。即便如此，截至周四收盘，游戏驿站股价今年迄今已上涨 1,070%。</blockquote></p><p> Could GME be inflating SLYV's performance? Certainly, given its quadruple-digit gain. But a look at SLYG's portfolio is interesting. GameStop stock is also the top holding in the growth stock ETF, though the rest of the top 10 differ vastly.</p><p><blockquote>GME 会夸大 SLYV 的业绩吗？当然，考虑到其四位数的增益。但看看 SLYG 的投资组合很有趣。游戏驿站股票也是成长型股票 ETF 中持有量最大的股票，尽管前 10 名中的其他股票差异很大。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Second Meme Stock In Top 10</b></p><p><blockquote><b>前 10 名中的第二只模因股票</b></blockquote></p><p> PDC Energy, up 130%, saw the next biggest gain in the top 10. The Colorado-based oil and gas explorer has a 97Relative Strength Rating, which mean it's in the top 3% of all stocks. Its relative strength line is at a 52-week high, a bullish sign.</p><p><blockquote>PDC Energy 上涨 130%，在前 10 名中涨幅第二大。这家总部位于科罗拉多州的石油和天然气勘探公司的相对实力评级为 97，这意味着它在所有股票中排名前 3%。其相对强弱线处于 52 周高点，这是一个看涨信号。</blockquote></p><p> Bed Bath &amp; Beyond, another meme stock, is up 78% this year. Shares surged more than 200% in January, amid a spate of wild double-digit swings. BBBY stock then gave back the bulk of its gains.</p><p><blockquote>另一只模因股票 Bed Bath &amp; Beyond 今年上涨了 78%。1 月份，股价飙升超过 200%，出现了一系列两位数的剧烈波动。BBBY 股票随后回吐了大部分涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> But the home goods retailer appears to be back on the radar of the WallStreetBets discussion group. On June 2, Bed Bath &amp; Beyond soared 62% before diving 28% the next session.</p><p><blockquote>但这家家居用品零售商似乎又回到了 WallStreetBets 讨论组的视线中。6 月 2 日，Bed Bath &amp; Beyond 飙升 62%，然后在接下来的交易日暴跌 28%。</blockquote></p><p> The rest of the top 10 stocks have also outperformed the broader market. Macy's is up 68% year to date, while Resideo, Pacific Premier and Ameris have risen more than 40% each. The lowest gainer, bank holding company First Hawaiian, has advanced 20%. The S&amp;P 500 held a 13% gain through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>前 10 名股票的其余表现也优于大盘。梅西百货今年迄今已上涨 68%，而 Resideo、Pacific Premier 和 Ameris 的股价均上涨超过 40%。涨幅最低的银行控股公司 First Hawaiian 上涨了 20%。截至周四收盘，标普500上涨 13%。</blockquote></p><p> SLYV remains in potential buy range from an 87.29entryof acup with handle, according toMarketSmithchart analysis.&nbsp;SLYV and SLYG charge a 0.15% expense ratio.</p><p><blockquote>根据 MarketSmithChart 分析，SLYV 仍处于带手柄的 acup 的潜在买入区间，为 87.29。 SLYV 和 SLYG 收取 0.15% 的费用率。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/etf-leaders/gamestop-stock-soars-1000-percent-lead-two-top-small-cap-stock-plays/?src=A00220\">investors</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PDCE":"PDC Energy"},"source_url":"https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/etf-leaders/gamestop-stock-soars-1000-percent-lead-two-top-small-cap-stock-plays/?src=A00220","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185020128","content_text":"GameStop may be the top holding in SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Value, but that's not the only reason the ETF is beating its growth-stock counterpart.\nThe $4.2 billion value fund tracks the S&P SmallCap 600 Value Index (SLYV), composed of stocks with the strongest value traits based on book value to price ratio, earnings to price ratio, and sales to price ratio. SLYV rallied 32% this year through Thursday's close.\nThat more than doubles the return of its growth stock counterpart, SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Growth (SLYG), which is up 15%. The index SLYG tracks includes stocks with the strongest growth traits based on sales growth, earnings change to price and momentum.\nBack to SLYV, financials accounted for the biggest sector weight at 24% of assets. Industrials weighed in at about 17%, consumer discretionary 15% and real estate 10%. Information technology was next at 8% and materials, energy and health care, 6% each. Smaller positions in consumer staples, utilities and communication services made up the rest.\nSPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Value is in IBD's ETF Leaders, but SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Growth is not.\nGameStop Stock Leads\nGameStop(GME),Macy's(M),PDC Energy(PDCE),Resideo Technologies(REZI) andBankUnited(BKU) were the top five holdings as of Wednesday.\nPacific Premier Bancorp(PPBI),Bed Bath & Beyond(BBBY),Ameris Bancorp(ABCB),First Hawaiian(FHB) andInsight Enterprises(NSIT) rounded out the top 10.\nGameStop has undergone wide swings this year. It rocketed about 2,500% early this year amid theshort-squeeze rallyfueled by the Reddit/WallStreetBets crowd.GME stockthen crashed 92% from a Jan. 28 high to its mid-February low. That was followed by an 805% surge the next three weeks, and a 66% drop over the next two weeks.\nAction had been relatively subdued since, until Thursday's 27% dive. Even after that, GameStop stock was up 1,070% year to date through Thursday's close.\nCould GME be inflating SLYV's performance? Certainly, given its quadruple-digit gain. But a look at SLYG's portfolio is interesting. GameStop stock is also the top holding in the growth stock ETF, though the rest of the top 10 differ vastly.\nSecond Meme Stock In Top 10\nPDC Energy, up 130%, saw the next biggest gain in the top 10. The Colorado-based oil and gas explorer has a 97Relative Strength Rating, which mean it's in the top 3% of all stocks. Its relative strength line is at a 52-week high, a bullish sign.\nBed Bath & Beyond, another meme stock, is up 78% this year. Shares surged more than 200% in January, amid a spate of wild double-digit swings. BBBY stock then gave back the bulk of its gains.\nBut the home goods retailer appears to be back on the radar of the WallStreetBets discussion group. On June 2, Bed Bath & Beyond soared 62% before diving 28% the next session.\nThe rest of the top 10 stocks have also outperformed the broader market. Macy's is up 68% year to date, while Resideo, Pacific Premier and Ameris have risen more than 40% each. The lowest gainer, bank holding company First Hawaiian, has advanced 20%. The S&P 500 held a 13% gain through Thursday's close.\nSLYV remains in potential buy range from an 87.29entryof acup with handle, according toMarketSmithchart analysis. SLYV and SLYG charge a 0.15% expense ratio.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PDCE":0.9,"BBBY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1281,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188712617,"gmtCreate":1623461849539,"gmtModify":1631889872778,"author":{"id":"3582016561552186","authorId":"3582016561552186","name":"KMK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef525a9485b7272e73ab442de514d467","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016561552186","authorIdStr":"3582016561552186"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188712617","repostId":"2142120735","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":895,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188394852,"gmtCreate":1623421007776,"gmtModify":1631889872802,"author":{"id":"3582016561552186","authorId":"3582016561552186","name":"KMK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef525a9485b7272e73ab442de514d467","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016561552186","authorIdStr":"3582016561552186"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188394852","repostId":"1151053377","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151053377","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623420628,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1151053377?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-11 22:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fubo TV surged over 7% in morning trading<blockquote>富博电视早盘飙升逾7%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151053377","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(June 11) Fubo TV surged over 7% in morning trading. Days ago, Fubo launched its app on LG Electroni","content":"<p>(June 11)&nbsp;Fubo TV&nbsp;surged over 7% in morning trading.&nbsp;Days ago, Fubo launched its app on LG Electronics' webOS smart TV platform in the U.S. But outlook not yet carefree.</p><p><blockquote>（6月11日）富博电视早盘大涨逾7% 日前，富博在美国LG电子的webOS智能电视平台上推出了其app。但前景尚未无忧。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/227284f09c707eabfd28577428d98484\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"584\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> A streaming service with a strong focus on sports, FuboTV (<b>FUBO</b>) recently announced it would be offered on LG SmartTV’s in the U.S., increasing its customer base and brand awareness. (SeeFUBO stock analysison TipRanks)</p><p><blockquote>FuboTV是一家专注于体育的流媒体服务（<b>伏波</b>) 最近宣布将在美国的 LG 智能电视上提供这款产品，从而扩大其客户群和品牌知名度。（参见富博股票分析技巧排名）</blockquote></p><p> Publishing on a report on the matter,Darren Aftahiof Roth Capital Partners wrote that integration with LG “should help it grow top of funnel consumer awareness.” Aftahi maintained a Buy rating on the stock, and declared a price target of $42.</p><p><blockquote>罗斯资本合伙公司（Roth Capital Partners）的达伦-阿夫塔希（Darren Aftahio）在一份关于此事的报告中写道，与 LG 的整合 “应该有助于 LG 在消费者认知度漏斗顶端成长”。Aftahi 维持该股买入评级，并宣布目标价为 42 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Aftahi explained that consumers with LG SmartTV’s will have immediate access to free trials of FuboTV, which will be promoted for user download. This is significant as LG currently already holds about a 12% market share in the U.S. It is important to note, however, that the LG deal will only apply to models of the years 2018 through 2021.</p><p><blockquote>阿夫塔希解释说，拥有 LG 智能电视的消费者将可以立即免费试用 FuboTV，并将向用户推广下载。这一点意义重大，因为 LG 目前已在美国占据约 12% 的市场份额。然而，值得注意的是，LG的交易将仅适用于2018年至2021年的型号。</blockquote></p><p> The company has been making headway as of late, but it is not without its risks, details Aftahi. FuboTV relies heavily on sports content, and any sort of stoppages in the sports world will severely disrupt its outlook on growth. Furthermore, as big-ticket events such as the Olympics were cancelled last year, similar instances occurring will directly impact subscriber growth.</p><p><blockquote>阿夫塔希详细介绍说，该公司最近一直在取得进展，但并非没有风险。FuboTV严重依赖体育内容，体育界的任何形式的停摆都将严重扰乱其增长前景。此外，由于去年奥运会等大型赛事被取消，类似事件的发生将直接影响用户增长。</blockquote></p><p> The analyst was also concerned about sports streaming offerings from Youtube TV and Hulu, as well as other large service providers mounting serious competition. If Fubo is unable “to differentiate its service, attract, continually engage and retain users” its outlook will be impacted for the worse.</p><p><blockquote>这位分析师还担心Youtube TV和Hulu的体育流媒体产品，以及其他大型服务提供商的激烈竞争。如果 Fubo 无法 “使其服务与众不同，吸引、持续吸引和留住用户”，其前景将受到更糟的影响。</blockquote></p><p> On TipRanks, FUBO has an analyst rating consensus of Strong Buy, based on 6 Buy and 1 hold ratings. Theaverage analyst FUBO price targetis $38.86 per share, reflecting a potential 12-month upside of 29.2%.</p><p><blockquote>在 TipRanks 上，基于 6 个买入和 1 个持有评级，FUBO 的分析师评级一致为强烈买入。分析师 FUBO 的平均目标价为每股 38.86 美元，反映出 12 个月潜在上涨空间为 29.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99e7b4b19ad5a7bfcea122fd8eeee10b\" tg-width=\"959\" tg-height=\"528\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fubo TV surged over 7% in morning trading<blockquote>富博电视早盘飙升逾7%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFubo TV surged over 7% in morning trading<blockquote>富博电视早盘飙升逾7%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-11 22:10</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(June 11)&nbsp;Fubo TV&nbsp;surged over 7% in morning trading.&nbsp;Days ago, Fubo launched its app on LG Electronics' webOS smart TV platform in the U.S. But outlook not yet carefree.</p><p><blockquote>（6月11日）富博电视早盘大涨逾7% 日前，富博在美国LG电子的webOS智能电视平台上推出了其app。但前景尚未无忧。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/227284f09c707eabfd28577428d98484\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"584\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> A streaming service with a strong focus on sports, FuboTV (<b>FUBO</b>) recently announced it would be offered on LG SmartTV’s in the U.S., increasing its customer base and brand awareness. (SeeFUBO stock analysison TipRanks)</p><p><blockquote>FuboTV是一家专注于体育的流媒体服务（<b>伏波</b>) 最近宣布将在美国的 LG 智能电视上提供这款产品，从而扩大其客户群和品牌知名度。（参见富博股票分析技巧排名）</blockquote></p><p> Publishing on a report on the matter,Darren Aftahiof Roth Capital Partners wrote that integration with LG “should help it grow top of funnel consumer awareness.” Aftahi maintained a Buy rating on the stock, and declared a price target of $42.</p><p><blockquote>罗斯资本合伙公司（Roth Capital Partners）的达伦-阿夫塔希（Darren Aftahio）在一份关于此事的报告中写道，与 LG 的整合 “应该有助于 LG 在消费者认知度漏斗顶端成长”。Aftahi 维持该股买入评级，并宣布目标价为 42 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Aftahi explained that consumers with LG SmartTV’s will have immediate access to free trials of FuboTV, which will be promoted for user download. This is significant as LG currently already holds about a 12% market share in the U.S. It is important to note, however, that the LG deal will only apply to models of the years 2018 through 2021.</p><p><blockquote>阿夫塔希解释说，拥有 LG 智能电视的消费者将可以立即免费试用 FuboTV，并将向用户推广下载。这一点意义重大，因为 LG 目前已在美国占据约 12% 的市场份额。然而，值得注意的是，LG的交易将仅适用于2018年至2021年的型号。</blockquote></p><p> The company has been making headway as of late, but it is not without its risks, details Aftahi. FuboTV relies heavily on sports content, and any sort of stoppages in the sports world will severely disrupt its outlook on growth. Furthermore, as big-ticket events such as the Olympics were cancelled last year, similar instances occurring will directly impact subscriber growth.</p><p><blockquote>阿夫塔希详细介绍说，该公司最近一直在取得进展，但并非没有风险。FuboTV严重依赖体育内容，体育界的任何形式的停摆都将严重扰乱其增长前景。此外，由于去年奥运会等大型赛事被取消，类似事件的发生将直接影响用户增长。</blockquote></p><p> The analyst was also concerned about sports streaming offerings from Youtube TV and Hulu, as well as other large service providers mounting serious competition. If Fubo is unable “to differentiate its service, attract, continually engage and retain users” its outlook will be impacted for the worse.</p><p><blockquote>这位分析师还担心Youtube TV和Hulu的体育流媒体产品，以及其他大型服务提供商的激烈竞争。如果 Fubo 无法 “使其服务与众不同，吸引、持续吸引和留住用户”，其前景将受到更糟的影响。</blockquote></p><p> On TipRanks, FUBO has an analyst rating consensus of Strong Buy, based on 6 Buy and 1 hold ratings. Theaverage analyst FUBO price targetis $38.86 per share, reflecting a potential 12-month upside of 29.2%.</p><p><blockquote>在 TipRanks 上，基于 6 个买入和 1 个持有评级，FUBO 的分析师评级一致为强烈买入。分析师 FUBO 的平均目标价为每股 38.86 美元，反映出 12 个月潜在上涨空间为 29.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99e7b4b19ad5a7bfcea122fd8eeee10b\" tg-width=\"959\" tg-height=\"528\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"FUBO":"fuboTV Inc."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151053377","content_text":"(June 11) Fubo TV surged over 7% in morning trading. Days ago, Fubo launched its app on LG Electronics' webOS smart TV platform in the U.S. But outlook not yet carefree.\n\nA streaming service with a strong focus on sports, FuboTV (FUBO) recently announced it would be offered on LG SmartTV’s in the U.S., increasing its customer base and brand awareness. (SeeFUBO stock analysison TipRanks)\nPublishing on a report on the matter,Darren Aftahiof Roth Capital Partners wrote that integration with LG “should help it grow top of funnel consumer awareness.” Aftahi maintained a Buy rating on the stock, and declared a price target of $42.\nAftahi explained that consumers with LG SmartTV’s will have immediate access to free trials of FuboTV, which will be promoted for user download. This is significant as LG currently already holds about a 12% market share in the U.S. It is important to note, however, that the LG deal will only apply to models of the years 2018 through 2021.\nThe company has been making headway as of late, but it is not without its risks, details Aftahi. FuboTV relies heavily on sports content, and any sort of stoppages in the sports world will severely disrupt its outlook on growth. Furthermore, as big-ticket events such as the Olympics were cancelled last year, similar instances occurring will directly impact subscriber growth.\nThe analyst was also concerned about sports streaming offerings from Youtube TV and Hulu, as well as other large service providers mounting serious competition. If Fubo is unable “to differentiate its service, attract, continually engage and retain users” its outlook will be impacted for the worse.\nOn TipRanks, FUBO has an analyst rating consensus of Strong Buy, based on 6 Buy and 1 hold ratings. Theaverage analyst FUBO price targetis $38.86 per share, reflecting a potential 12-month upside of 29.2%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"FUBO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":989,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181956161,"gmtCreate":1623371619953,"gmtModify":1631889872815,"author":{"id":"3582016561552186","authorId":"3582016561552186","name":"KMK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef525a9485b7272e73ab442de514d467","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016561552186","authorIdStr":"3582016561552186"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Looking forward","listText":"Looking forward","text":"Looking forward","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181956161","repostId":"1152704038","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152704038","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623367425,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1152704038?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-11 07:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"China's Didi reveals U.S. IPO filing, sets stage for blockbuster New York float<blockquote>中国滴滴公布美国 IPO 文件，为纽约重磅上市奠定基础</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152704038","media":"reuters","summary":"(Reuters) -Didi Chuxing, China’s biggest ride-hailing firm, on Thursday made public its filing for a","content":"<p>(Reuters) -Didi Chuxing, China’s biggest ride-hailing firm, on Thursday made public its filing for a U.S. stock market listing, setting the stage for what is expected to be the world’s biggest initial public offering this year.</p><p><blockquote>(路透社）--中国最大的网约车公司滴滴出行周四公开了其在美国股市上市的申请，为今年有望成为全球最大的首次公开募股奠定了基础。</blockquote></p><p> The company - backed by Asia’s largest technology investment firms, SoftBank, Alibaba and Tencent - did not reveal the size of the offering, but sources familiar with the matter had previously told Reuters that the ride-hailing giant could raise around $10 billion and seek a valuation of close to $100 billion.</p><p><blockquote>该公司得到了亚洲最大的科技投资公司软银、阿里巴巴-SW和腾讯控股的支持，没有透露发行规模，但熟悉内情的消息人士此前曾告诉路透社，这家叫车巨头可能会融资约 100 亿美元，并寻求接近 1000 亿美元的估值。</blockquote></p><p> At that valuation, Didi’s stock market flotation would be the biggest Chinese share offering in the United States, since Alibaba raised $25 billion in its blockbuster IPO in 2014.</p><p><blockquote>按照这一估值，滴滴的首次公开募股将是自阿里巴巴-SW 2014 年首次公开募股（IPO）筹集 250 亿美元以来，在美国最大的中国股票发行。</blockquote></p><p> In its filing on Thursday, Didi revealed slower revenue growth in 2020 due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, which grounded the global ride-hailing industry to a halt as lockdowns were enforced all over the globe.</p><p><blockquote>滴滴在周四提交的文件中透露，由于 COVID-19 大流行的影响，2020 年收入增长放缓，随着全球各地实施封锁，全球网约车行业陷入停滞。</blockquote></p><p> For 2020, Didi reported revenue of 141.7 billion yuan ($22.17 billion), down from 154.8 billion yuan a year earlier. Net loss stood at 10.6 billion yuan in 2020, compared with 9.7 billion yuan a year earlier.</p><p><blockquote>2020 年，滴滴报告收入为 1,417 亿元人民币（221.7 亿美元），低于上年同期的 1,548 亿元人民币。2020年净亏损106亿元，上年同期为97亿元。</blockquote></p><p> However, Didi started 2021 strongly, as businesses reopened in China. Revenue more than doubled to 42.2 billion yuan (US$6.4 billion) for the three months ended March 31 from 20.5 billion yuan a year earlier.</p><p><blockquote>然而，随着中国业务重新开业，滴滴在2021年开局强劲。截至 3 月 31 日的三个月，收入从去年同期的 205 亿元人民币增长了一倍多，达到 422 亿元人民币（64 亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> CHINESE IPO GOLD RUSH</p><p><blockquote>中国IPO淘金热</blockquote></p><p> Didi confidentially filed for its IPO in April. A source familiar with the matter on Thursday said Didi was aiming to go public in July.</p><p><blockquote>滴滴于4月份秘密申请IPO。一位知情人士周四表示，滴滴的目标是在7月份上市。</blockquote></p><p> The mega IPO highlights the lucrative business opportunity presented by Asian tech giants for Wall Street’s big investment banks.</p><p><blockquote>这次大型首次公开募股凸显了亚洲科技巨头为华尔街大型投资银行带来的利润丰厚的商机。</blockquote></p><p> Earlier this year, Singapore’s biggest ride-hailing firm, Grab, struck a $40 billion deal with a special purpose acquisition company, backed by investment firm Altimeter, to go public in the United States.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，新加坡最大的打车公司 Grab 与一家由投资公司 Altimeter 支持的特殊目的收购公司达成了一项价值 400 亿美元的协议，将在美国上市。</blockquote></p><p> Last year, Chinese companies raised $12 billion from U.S. listings, more than triple the fundraising amount in 2019, according to Refinitiv data. This year, the raise from Chinese floats on U.S. exchanges is expected to comfortably surpass last year’s tally.</p><p><blockquote>路孚特数据显示，去年中国公司从美国上市筹集了 120 亿美元，是 2019 年筹资额的三倍多。今年，中国在美国交易所的流通量预计将轻松超过去年。</blockquote></p><p> Didi, which merged with then main rival Kuaidi in 2015 to create a smartphone-based transport services giant, counts as its core business a mobile app, where users can hail taxis, privately owned cars, car-pool options and even buses in some cities.</p><p><blockquote>滴滴于2015年与当时的主要竞争对手快的合并，创建了一家基于智能手机的交通服务巨头，其核心业务是移动应用程序，用户可以在其中叫出租车、私家车、拼车，甚至在一些城市叫公交车。</blockquote></p><p> Didi plans to list American Depositary Shares (ADSs) on either Nasdaq or the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol \"DIDI\", the company said. (bit.ly/2RGjK0s)</p><p><blockquote>滴滴表示，计划在纳斯达克或纽约证券交易所上市美国存托股（ADS），股票代码为“DIDI”。(bit.ly/2RGjK0s)</blockquote></p><p> Didi Chief Executive Cheng Wei said last year the firm aims to have 800 million monthly active users globally and complete 100 million orders a day by 2022, including ride-sharing, bike and food delivery orders.</p><p><blockquote>滴滴首席执行官程维去年表示，该公司的目标是到2022年在全球拥有8亿月活跃用户，每天完成1亿个订单，包括拼车、自行车和送餐订单。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and J.P.Morgan are the lead underwriters for the offering.</p><p><blockquote>高盛、摩根士丹利和摩根大通是此次发行的主承销商。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>China's Didi reveals U.S. IPO filing, sets stage for blockbuster New York float<blockquote>中国滴滴公布美国 IPO 文件，为纽约重磅上市奠定基础</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChina's Didi reveals U.S. IPO filing, sets stage for blockbuster New York float<blockquote>中国滴滴公布美国 IPO 文件，为纽约重磅上市奠定基础</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-11 07:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Reuters) -Didi Chuxing, China’s biggest ride-hailing firm, on Thursday made public its filing for a U.S. stock market listing, setting the stage for what is expected to be the world’s biggest initial public offering this year.</p><p><blockquote>(路透社）--中国最大的网约车公司滴滴出行周四公开了其在美国股市上市的申请，为今年有望成为全球最大的首次公开募股奠定了基础。</blockquote></p><p> The company - backed by Asia’s largest technology investment firms, SoftBank, Alibaba and Tencent - did not reveal the size of the offering, but sources familiar with the matter had previously told Reuters that the ride-hailing giant could raise around $10 billion and seek a valuation of close to $100 billion.</p><p><blockquote>该公司得到了亚洲最大的科技投资公司软银、阿里巴巴-SW和腾讯控股的支持，没有透露发行规模，但熟悉内情的消息人士此前曾告诉路透社，这家叫车巨头可能会融资约 100 亿美元，并寻求接近 1000 亿美元的估值。</blockquote></p><p> At that valuation, Didi’s stock market flotation would be the biggest Chinese share offering in the United States, since Alibaba raised $25 billion in its blockbuster IPO in 2014.</p><p><blockquote>按照这一估值，滴滴的首次公开募股将是自阿里巴巴-SW 2014 年首次公开募股（IPO）筹集 250 亿美元以来，在美国最大的中国股票发行。</blockquote></p><p> In its filing on Thursday, Didi revealed slower revenue growth in 2020 due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, which grounded the global ride-hailing industry to a halt as lockdowns were enforced all over the globe.</p><p><blockquote>滴滴在周四提交的文件中透露，由于 COVID-19 大流行的影响，2020 年收入增长放缓，随着全球各地实施封锁，全球网约车行业陷入停滞。</blockquote></p><p> For 2020, Didi reported revenue of 141.7 billion yuan ($22.17 billion), down from 154.8 billion yuan a year earlier. Net loss stood at 10.6 billion yuan in 2020, compared with 9.7 billion yuan a year earlier.</p><p><blockquote>2020 年，滴滴报告收入为 1,417 亿元人民币（221.7 亿美元），低于上年同期的 1,548 亿元人民币。2020年净亏损106亿元，上年同期为97亿元。</blockquote></p><p> However, Didi started 2021 strongly, as businesses reopened in China. Revenue more than doubled to 42.2 billion yuan (US$6.4 billion) for the three months ended March 31 from 20.5 billion yuan a year earlier.</p><p><blockquote>然而，随着中国业务重新开业，滴滴在2021年开局强劲。截至 3 月 31 日的三个月，收入从去年同期的 205 亿元人民币增长了一倍多，达到 422 亿元人民币（64 亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> CHINESE IPO GOLD RUSH</p><p><blockquote>中国IPO淘金热</blockquote></p><p> Didi confidentially filed for its IPO in April. A source familiar with the matter on Thursday said Didi was aiming to go public in July.</p><p><blockquote>滴滴于4月份秘密申请IPO。一位知情人士周四表示，滴滴的目标是在7月份上市。</blockquote></p><p> The mega IPO highlights the lucrative business opportunity presented by Asian tech giants for Wall Street’s big investment banks.</p><p><blockquote>这次大型首次公开募股凸显了亚洲科技巨头为华尔街大型投资银行带来的利润丰厚的商机。</blockquote></p><p> Earlier this year, Singapore’s biggest ride-hailing firm, Grab, struck a $40 billion deal with a special purpose acquisition company, backed by investment firm Altimeter, to go public in the United States.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，新加坡最大的打车公司 Grab 与一家由投资公司 Altimeter 支持的特殊目的收购公司达成了一项价值 400 亿美元的协议，将在美国上市。</blockquote></p><p> Last year, Chinese companies raised $12 billion from U.S. listings, more than triple the fundraising amount in 2019, according to Refinitiv data. This year, the raise from Chinese floats on U.S. exchanges is expected to comfortably surpass last year’s tally.</p><p><blockquote>路孚特数据显示，去年中国公司从美国上市筹集了 120 亿美元，是 2019 年筹资额的三倍多。今年，中国在美国交易所的流通量预计将轻松超过去年。</blockquote></p><p> Didi, which merged with then main rival Kuaidi in 2015 to create a smartphone-based transport services giant, counts as its core business a mobile app, where users can hail taxis, privately owned cars, car-pool options and even buses in some cities.</p><p><blockquote>滴滴于2015年与当时的主要竞争对手快的合并，创建了一家基于智能手机的交通服务巨头，其核心业务是移动应用程序，用户可以在其中叫出租车、私家车、拼车，甚至在一些城市叫公交车。</blockquote></p><p> Didi plans to list American Depositary Shares (ADSs) on either Nasdaq or the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol \"DIDI\", the company said. (bit.ly/2RGjK0s)</p><p><blockquote>滴滴表示，计划在纳斯达克或纽约证券交易所上市美国存托股（ADS），股票代码为“DIDI”。(bit.ly/2RGjK0s)</blockquote></p><p> Didi Chief Executive Cheng Wei said last year the firm aims to have 800 million monthly active users globally and complete 100 million orders a day by 2022, including ride-sharing, bike and food delivery orders.</p><p><blockquote>滴滴首席执行官程维去年表示，该公司的目标是到2022年在全球拥有8亿月活跃用户，每天完成1亿个订单，包括拼车、自行车和送餐订单。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and J.P.Morgan are the lead underwriters for the offering.</p><p><blockquote>高盛、摩根士丹利和摩根大通是此次发行的主承销商。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/didi-ipo/update-2-chinas-didi-reveals-u-s-ipo-filing-sets-stage-for-blockbuster-new-york-float-idUSL3N2NS42U\">reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"UBER":"优步","DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/didi-ipo/update-2-chinas-didi-reveals-u-s-ipo-filing-sets-stage-for-blockbuster-new-york-float-idUSL3N2NS42U","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152704038","content_text":"(Reuters) -Didi Chuxing, China’s biggest ride-hailing firm, on Thursday made public its filing for a U.S. stock market listing, setting the stage for what is expected to be the world’s biggest initial public offering this year.\nThe company - backed by Asia’s largest technology investment firms, SoftBank, Alibaba and Tencent - did not reveal the size of the offering, but sources familiar with the matter had previously told Reuters that the ride-hailing giant could raise around $10 billion and seek a valuation of close to $100 billion.\nAt that valuation, Didi’s stock market flotation would be the biggest Chinese share offering in the United States, since Alibaba raised $25 billion in its blockbuster IPO in 2014.\nIn its filing on Thursday, Didi revealed slower revenue growth in 2020 due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, which grounded the global ride-hailing industry to a halt as lockdowns were enforced all over the globe.\nFor 2020, Didi reported revenue of 141.7 billion yuan ($22.17 billion), down from 154.8 billion yuan a year earlier. Net loss stood at 10.6 billion yuan in 2020, compared with 9.7 billion yuan a year earlier.\nHowever, Didi started 2021 strongly, as businesses reopened in China. Revenue more than doubled to 42.2 billion yuan (US$6.4 billion) for the three months ended March 31 from 20.5 billion yuan a year earlier.\nCHINESE IPO GOLD RUSH\nDidi confidentially filed for its IPO in April. A source familiar with the matter on Thursday said Didi was aiming to go public in July.\nThe mega IPO highlights the lucrative business opportunity presented by Asian tech giants for Wall Street’s big investment banks.\nEarlier this year, Singapore’s biggest ride-hailing firm, Grab, struck a $40 billion deal with a special purpose acquisition company, backed by investment firm Altimeter, to go public in the United States.\nLast year, Chinese companies raised $12 billion from U.S. listings, more than triple the fundraising amount in 2019, according to Refinitiv data. This year, the raise from Chinese floats on U.S. exchanges is expected to comfortably surpass last year’s tally.\nDidi, which merged with then main rival Kuaidi in 2015 to create a smartphone-based transport services giant, counts as its core business a mobile app, where users can hail taxis, privately owned cars, car-pool options and even buses in some cities.\nDidi plans to list American Depositary Shares (ADSs) on either Nasdaq or the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol \"DIDI\", the company said. (bit.ly/2RGjK0s)\nDidi Chief Executive Cheng Wei said last year the firm aims to have 800 million monthly active users globally and complete 100 million orders a day by 2022, including ride-sharing, bike and food delivery orders.\nGoldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and J.P.Morgan are the lead underwriters for the offering.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DIDI":0.9,"UBER":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":681,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":837188154,"gmtCreate":1629864442978,"gmtModify":1631885626168,"author":{"id":"3582016561552186","authorId":"3582016561552186","name":"KMK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef525a9485b7272e73ab442de514d467","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016561552186","authorIdStr":"3582016561552186"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/837188154","repostId":"2162087564","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2763,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169960825,"gmtCreate":1623812805767,"gmtModify":1631885626213,"author":{"id":"3582016561552186","authorId":"3582016561552186","name":"KMK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef525a9485b7272e73ab442de514d467","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016561552186","authorIdStr":"3582016561552186"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hmm....","listText":"Hmm....","text":"Hmm....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169960825","repostId":"1141264092","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1141264092","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623811561,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1141264092?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-16 10:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Fisker The Next Short Squeeze?<blockquote>菲斯克是下一个空头挤压吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141264092","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nFSR is up 72% since my bullish call just a month ago.\nWith that sort of move, caution is wa","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>FSR is up 72% since my bullish call just a month ago.</li>  <li>With that sort of move, caution is warranted on further gains.</li>  <li>New fundamental developments lay out the future path for Fisker.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8cfc5757fb9bcd2dad4f529e916092c\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>jonathanfilskov-photography/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>自从我一个月前的看涨看涨期权以来，FSR 上涨了 72%。</li><li>有了这样的举动，就有必要对进一步上涨保持谨慎。</li><li>新的基本发展为菲斯克规划了未来的道路。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>jonathanfilskov-摄影/iStock via Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The electric vehicle space has been, let’s say, volatile over the past year or so. OG&nbsp;<b>Tesla</b>(TSLA) continues to dwarf all other comers in terms of market cap, but there are numerous new competitors, many of which are so new, they don’t even have any revenue yet. One such example is the reincarnated&nbsp;<b>Fisker Inc.</b>(FSR), which is founder Henrik Fisker’s second go at making an electric automaker.</p><p><blockquote>可以说，在过去一年左右的时间里，电动汽车领域一直不稳定。和<b>特斯拉</b>(特斯拉）在市值方面继续让所有其他竞争对手相形见绌，但新的竞争对手不胜枚举，其中许多竞争对手还很新，甚至还没有任何收入。转世就是这样一个例子<b>菲斯克公司。</b>(FSR)，这是创始人亨里克-菲斯克（Henrik Fisker）第二次尝试创建电动汽车制造商。</blockquote></p><p> I wrote apieceon Fisker about a month ago when the share price was $10.69, saying it was a great time to buy. Shares are 72% higher than that today – a<i>massive</i>move in the space of four weeks – but such is the nature of the game in electric vehicles. Up 72%, the big question is, do you continue to hold? In this case, I think the answer is “no”, but with some caveats.</p><p><blockquote>大约一个月前，当股价为 10.69 美元时，我给 apieceon Fisker 写了一封信，说现在是买入的好时机。股价比今天上涨 72% – a<i>巨大的</i>在四周内移动——但这就是电动汽车的本质。上涨72%，最大的问题是，你会继续持有吗？在这种情况下，我认为答案是 “否”，但有一些注意事项。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b7e34a03823eba6302e3194baa808ce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"615\"><span>Source: StockCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：股票图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> First, let’s take a look at the chart, which highlights just how volatile this thing really is. Prior support in the low-$14s was lost during the last downturn, and the stock eventually bottomed at $9.61. Since then, shares have<i>doubled</i>, and we’ve seen a complete reset in terms of sentiment for Fisker. One thing you must understand is that Fisker and other zero-revenue EV makers trade on momentum and sentiment rather than fundamentals, so you must be nimble.</p><p><blockquote>首先，让我们来看看图表，它突出了这个东西到底有多么不稳定。此前14美元低点的支撑位在上次低迷期间失去，该股最终触底9.61美元。此后，股票<i>双倍</i>我们看到菲斯克的情绪完全重置。你必须明白的一件事是，菲斯克和其他零收入电动汽车制造商的交易取决于势头和情绪，而不是基本面，所以你必须灵活。</blockquote></p><p> I would look for that low-$14 area to hold as support on the next pullback, but I’ll also note that it isn’t all that strong, having failed miserably last time there was a selloff. But if the stock is going to bounce, that will likely be the area it will happen.</p><p><blockquote>我会将 14 美元的低点区域作为下一次回调的支撑，但我也会注意到，该区域并不那么强劲，上次抛售时曾惨败。但如果股票要反弹，那很可能就是反弹的领域。</blockquote></p><p> I’ll also note the PPO is very overbought, and is very close to the same levels where prior rallies have lost steam and eventually rolled over. That means the odds of a further rally from here are greatly diminishing, as the bulls have made a Herculean push already, and there are signs the push is ending, at least temporarily.</p><p><blockquote>我还要指出，PPO 非常超买，非常接近之前反弹失去动力并最终翻盘的水平。这意味着从这里进一步反弹的可能性正在大大降低，因为多头已经做出了巨大的推动，而且有迹象表明推动正在结束，至少是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p> The 14-day RSI is showing similar behavior, as it is rolling over after reaching extreme overbought conditions. The point of all of this is that this stock has doubled in the space of a month, and the rally looks tired. I don’t see a reasonable path meaningfully higher here, but in the EV space, anything can happen. But the bottom line is that the rally looks tired to me, and I think the most prudent course of action is to take profits and wait for a lower re-entry.</p><p><blockquote>14 天 RSI 也表现出类似的行为，因为它在达到极端超买条件后正在翻转。这一切的要点是，这只股票在一个月的时间里翻了一番，而且涨势看起来很疲惫。我在这里看不到一条合理的更高路径，但在电动汽车领域，任何事情都可能发生。但底线是，反弹在我看来很疲惫，我认为最谨慎的做法是获利了结并等待更低的重新进入。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New developments</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新发展</b></blockquote></p><p> There have been some interesting developments since my last update on Fisker, and ones that have the potential to drive the share price over time.</p><p><blockquote>自从我上次更新 Fisker 以来，出现了一些有趣的进展，并且随着时间的推移，这些进展有可能推动股价。</blockquote></p><p> First up, short interest in Fisker is soaring, and after the numerous highly-shorted stocks we’ve seen go to the moon this year, that’s worth noting. Below is Fisker’s short interest for reference.</p><p><blockquote>首先，对 Fisker 的空头兴趣正在飙升，在今年我们看到的众多高度做空的股票纷纷下跌之后，这一点值得注意。以下是菲斯克的空头利息，供参考。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd732eb0644d9370ff55d207057d6485\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"364\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Short interest has roughly quadrupled since February, and is rising all the time. The kinds of rallies that we’ve seen in Fisker can cause short squeezes because shorts on the wrong side of a parabolic rally can often panic buy to cover their shorts, leading to a short squeeze.</p><p><blockquote>自二月份以来，空头兴趣大约翻了两番，并且一直在上升。我们在菲斯克看到的那种反弹会导致空头挤压，因为抛物线反弹反面的空头往往会恐慌性买入来弥补空头，从而导致空头挤压。</blockquote></p><p> Fisker’s current rally lacks the volume of a short squeeze, so I firmly believe this rally is not a result of high short interest, but is instead buyers just buying the stock. If shorts throw in the towel, Fisker could squeeze a lot higher than it is today. To be clear, I’m not saying Fisker is the next short squeeze, but what I am saying is that 45M shares short is roughly seven days’ worth of normal volume, so it’s significant. I certainly also would not short Fisker at these levels for that reason.</p><p><blockquote>菲斯克目前的反弹缺乏空头挤压的成交量，因此我坚信这次反弹不是空头兴趣高的结果，而是买家刚刚买入股票的结果。如果空头认输，菲斯克的股价可能会比今天高得多。需要明确的是，我并不是说菲斯克是下一个做空对象，但我想说的是，4500 万股的做空量大约相当于七天的正常成交量，所以这意义重大。出于这个原因，我当然也不会在这些水平上做空菲斯克。</blockquote></p><p> In short, I do not believe Fisker is the next short squeeze candidate because squeezes usually occur when a stock is at or near a top, and thus most or all short sellers are underwater. Fisker isn't anywhere close to its former high, and given how tired the rally looks today, I see the odds of that occurring as low.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，我不认为菲斯克是下一个空头挤压候选人，因为挤压通常发生在股票处于或接近顶部时，因此大多数或所有卖空者都处于水下。菲斯克距离之前的高点还很远，考虑到今天的反弹看起来多么疲惫，我认为这种情况发生的可能性很低。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> From a fundamental perspective, Fisker continues to make progress towards making production a reality of its Ocean SUV, as evidenced in itsQ1 report. The company ended the quarter with $985 million in cash, which is good enough for about 10 quarters at the current run rate; in Q1, the company spent $29 million on operating activities, and $66 million in capex. The company also said the majority of the Ocean has been sourced, which is improving cost visibility as prior questions have become answers.</p><p><blockquote>从基本面角度来看，菲斯克在实现其海洋SUV的生产方面继续取得进展，正如其第一季度报告所证明的那样。该公司本季度末拥有 9.85 亿美元现金，按照目前的运行速度，这足够维持大约 10 个季度；第一季度，该公司在运营活动上花费了 2900 万美元，在资本支出上花费了 6600 万美元。该公司还表示，大部分海洋都是采购的，这提高了成本的可见性，因为之前的问题已经成为答案。</blockquote></p><p> I don’t think Fisker has unlimited runway in terms of cash, but it should have enough to get to production of the Ocean, which is still slated for late this year, or early next year. That’s very important because Fisker needs the cash to start rolling in fairly soon, or further capital raises will be necessary.</p><p><blockquote>我不认为菲斯克在现金方面有无限的发展空间，但它应该有足够的资金来制作《海洋》，该片仍定于今年年底或明年初上映。这一点非常重要，因为菲斯克需要现金尽快开始滚动，否则就需要进一步融资。</blockquote></p><p> Fisker says it has 16k reservations for Oceans at this point, but as we know, reservations for new vehicles are very low cost for the consumer, and don’t represent an obligation to buy. Given this, I take them with a grain of salt. But on the plus side, Fisker has done essentially no advertising, and I’d be willing to bet the vast majority of Americans have no idea what Fisker is. That indicates that there may be some legs to the Ocean, but we’ll have to wait and see.</p><p><blockquote>Fisker 表示，目前该公司已为 Oceans 预订了 1.6 万辆，但据我们所知，预订新车对消费者来说成本非常低，并不构成购买的义务。有鉴于此，我对它们持保留态度。但从好的方面来看，菲斯克基本上没有做过广告，我敢打赌，绝大多数美国人根本不知道菲斯克是什么。这表明可能会有一些通往海洋的腿，但我们还得拭目以待。</blockquote></p><p> Perhaps most importantly, Fisker has an ambitious plan to produce a sub-$30k EV, currently calledProject PEAR. The company has signed Foxconn to make the vehicle, which won’t be available for another two years or so. But it represents another step towards Fisker becoming more mainstream, and if the company can execute, it could grab big chunks of market share. I’ll caveat that producing sub-$30k EVs is no small task because the batteries are very expensive. This is why others have struggled to do the same thing, and I have no reason to think Fisker won’t struggle as well. However, if the Ocean is a success, and provides the cash to develop PEAR, Fisker could be off to the races. PEAR is just an idea at this point, so don’t get too excited, but Fisker certainly has grand plans.</p><p><blockquote>也许最重要的是，菲斯克有一个雄心勃勃的计划来生产一款售价低于 3 万美元的电动汽车，目前称为 Project PEAR。该公司已与富士康签约生产这款车，但这款车还要两年左右才能上市。但这代表着菲斯克走向更加主流的又一步，如果该公司能够执行，它可能会抢占大块市场份额。我要提醒的是，生产低于 3 万美元的电动汽车并非易事，因为电池非常昂贵。这就是为什么其他人都在努力做同样的事情，我没有理由认为菲斯克不会也在努力。然而，如果海洋是成功的，并提供了开发梨的现金，菲斯克可能会去参加比赛。PEAR 目前只是一个想法，所以不要太兴奋，但 Fisker 肯定有宏伟的计划。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation remains mixed</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值仍然好坏参半</b></blockquote></p><p> The tricky thing about valuing startups is that the targets – whether it is revenue or earnings – move all the time. In Fisker’s case, it is apparent that some targets were probably a bit optimistic, especially for revenue.</p><p><blockquote>对初创公司进行估值的棘手之处在于，目标——无论是收入还是盈利——一直在变化。就菲斯克而言，很明显，有些目标可能有点乐观，尤其是在收入方面。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52fe37a0a60e26d5c3aba548bd4b0b0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"166\"><span>Source:Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Seeking Alpha</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Estimates for the out years have come up slightly in the past month – likely due to analysts building PEAR into projections – but in the past six months, estimates are off by a third in some cases. You have to remember if you buy this stock that Fisker isn’t slated to receive<i>any</i>revenue until next year, and even then, progress will start slowly. But if Fisker does achieve $8+ billion in revenue by 2025, buying the stock today will have proven a prescient move. There are just so many steps between now and then that the ride will be extremely volatile to say the least.</p><p><blockquote>过去一个月，对未来几年的预测略有上升——可能是由于分析师将 PEAR 纳入预测——但在过去六个月中，在某些情况下，预测偏离了三分之一。你必须记住，如果你购买了菲斯克不打算收到的这只股票<i>任何</i>收入要到明年，即便如此，进展也会开始缓慢。但如果菲斯克到 2025 年确实实现 80 多亿美元的收入，那么今天购买该股票将被证明是一个有先见之明的举动。从现在到那时有太多的步骤，至少可以说，旅程将非常不稳定。</blockquote></p><p> That is illustrated nicely by EPS estimates.</p><p><blockquote>每股收益估计很好地说明了这一点。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/730bfe2971ecbf2c150c244c474bd7c7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\"><span>Source:Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Seeking Alpha</span></p></blockquote></p><p> EPS is almost certainly going to be negative for at least this year and next year, but if production ramps the way it should for Ocean, Fisker has an outside chance at hitting breakeven in 2023. If scale is achieved, we could see very strong EPS, with 2025 current at $3.72 per share, and 2026 at $4.95. If Ocean succeeds, and Fisker can produce PEAR in sufficient numbers, these estimates could become reality. But you can see the consternation among market participants in that a stock with $5 in EPS five years from now is trading for $18,<i>after</i>doubling in a month. In other words, the share price is pricing in the fact that these estimates are simply guesses at this point. Said another way, if there was some certainty around $5 in EPS in 2026, it would be reasonable to see a multiple of 10 or 12 on that number, or a share price of $50 to $60. We're at a small fraction of that, which is pricing in the massive uncertainty of the company achieving these results.</p><p><blockquote>几乎可以肯定，至少今年和明年的每股收益将为负，但如果 Ocean 的产量像应有的那样增加，Fisker 就有机会在 2023 年实现盈亏平衡。如果实现规模，我们可能会看到非常强劲的每股收益，2025 年目前为每股 3.72 美元，2026 年为每股 4.95 美元。如果 Ocean 取得成功，并且 Fisker 能够生产足够数量的梨，这些估计可能会成为现实。但你可以看到市场参与者的恐慌，因为五年后每股收益为 5 美元的股票现在交易价格为 18 美元，<i>之后</i>一个月翻倍。换句话说，股价正在定价，因为这些估计在这一点上只是猜测。换句话说，如果 2026 年每股收益在 5 美元左右有一定的确定性，那么该数字的倍数是 10 或 12，或者股价在 50 至 60 美元之间是合理的。我们只占其中的一小部分，这是对公司实现这些结果的巨大不确定性进行定价。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> The bottom line on Fisker is that the company is so far from making any sort of meaningful revenue – and even further from profits – that it is mostly a momentum trade as a result. The stock has doubled in the past month, and I see cracks in the rally’s strength, so I think it is once again time to take profits and wait for a lower re-entry price.</p><p><blockquote>菲斯克的底线是，该公司远未产生任何有意义的收入，甚至更未产生利润，因此它主要是一种动量交易。该股在过去一个月里翻了一番，我看到了反弹的强度出现了裂缝，因此我认为又到了获利了结并等待更低的重新入场价格的时候了。</blockquote></p><p> I think Fisker has the potential to be a winner in the long-term, but the path to get there is fraught with obstacles. I once again see potential and current price fairly balanced, and for that reason, I’m back to neutral on Fisker.</p><p><blockquote>我认为菲斯克有潜力成为长期赢家，但实现这一目标的道路充满了障碍。我再次看到潜在价格和当前价格相当平衡，因此，我对菲斯克的看法又回到了中性。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Fisker The Next Short Squeeze?<blockquote>菲斯克是下一个空头挤压吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Fisker The Next Short Squeeze?<blockquote>菲斯克是下一个空头挤压吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-16 10:46</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>FSR is up 72% since my bullish call just a month ago.</li>  <li>With that sort of move, caution is warranted on further gains.</li>  <li>New fundamental developments lay out the future path for Fisker.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8cfc5757fb9bcd2dad4f529e916092c\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>jonathanfilskov-photography/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>自从我一个月前的看涨看涨期权以来，FSR 上涨了 72%。</li><li>有了这样的举动，就有必要对进一步上涨保持谨慎。</li><li>新的基本发展为菲斯克规划了未来的道路。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>jonathanfilskov-摄影/iStock via Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The electric vehicle space has been, let’s say, volatile over the past year or so. OG&nbsp;<b>Tesla</b>(TSLA) continues to dwarf all other comers in terms of market cap, but there are numerous new competitors, many of which are so new, they don’t even have any revenue yet. One such example is the reincarnated&nbsp;<b>Fisker Inc.</b>(FSR), which is founder Henrik Fisker’s second go at making an electric automaker.</p><p><blockquote>可以说，在过去一年左右的时间里，电动汽车领域一直不稳定。和<b>特斯拉</b>(特斯拉）在市值方面继续让所有其他竞争对手相形见绌，但新的竞争对手不胜枚举，其中许多竞争对手还很新，甚至还没有任何收入。转世就是这样一个例子<b>菲斯克公司。</b>(FSR)，这是创始人亨里克-菲斯克（Henrik Fisker）第二次尝试创建电动汽车制造商。</blockquote></p><p> I wrote apieceon Fisker about a month ago when the share price was $10.69, saying it was a great time to buy. Shares are 72% higher than that today – a<i>massive</i>move in the space of four weeks – but such is the nature of the game in electric vehicles. Up 72%, the big question is, do you continue to hold? In this case, I think the answer is “no”, but with some caveats.</p><p><blockquote>大约一个月前，当股价为 10.69 美元时，我给 apieceon Fisker 写了一封信，说现在是买入的好时机。股价比今天上涨 72% – a<i>巨大的</i>在四周内移动——但这就是电动汽车的本质。上涨72%，最大的问题是，你会继续持有吗？在这种情况下，我认为答案是 “否”，但有一些注意事项。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b7e34a03823eba6302e3194baa808ce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"615\"><span>Source: StockCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：股票图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> First, let’s take a look at the chart, which highlights just how volatile this thing really is. Prior support in the low-$14s was lost during the last downturn, and the stock eventually bottomed at $9.61. Since then, shares have<i>doubled</i>, and we’ve seen a complete reset in terms of sentiment for Fisker. One thing you must understand is that Fisker and other zero-revenue EV makers trade on momentum and sentiment rather than fundamentals, so you must be nimble.</p><p><blockquote>首先，让我们来看看图表，它突出了这个东西到底有多么不稳定。此前14美元低点的支撑位在上次低迷期间失去，该股最终触底9.61美元。此后，股票<i>双倍</i>我们看到菲斯克的情绪完全重置。你必须明白的一件事是，菲斯克和其他零收入电动汽车制造商的交易取决于势头和情绪，而不是基本面，所以你必须灵活。</blockquote></p><p> I would look for that low-$14 area to hold as support on the next pullback, but I’ll also note that it isn’t all that strong, having failed miserably last time there was a selloff. But if the stock is going to bounce, that will likely be the area it will happen.</p><p><blockquote>我会将 14 美元的低点区域作为下一次回调的支撑，但我也会注意到，该区域并不那么强劲，上次抛售时曾惨败。但如果股票要反弹，那很可能就是反弹的领域。</blockquote></p><p> I’ll also note the PPO is very overbought, and is very close to the same levels where prior rallies have lost steam and eventually rolled over. That means the odds of a further rally from here are greatly diminishing, as the bulls have made a Herculean push already, and there are signs the push is ending, at least temporarily.</p><p><blockquote>我还要指出，PPO 非常超买，非常接近之前反弹失去动力并最终翻盘的水平。这意味着从这里进一步反弹的可能性正在大大降低，因为多头已经做出了巨大的推动，而且有迹象表明推动正在结束，至少是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p> The 14-day RSI is showing similar behavior, as it is rolling over after reaching extreme overbought conditions. The point of all of this is that this stock has doubled in the space of a month, and the rally looks tired. I don’t see a reasonable path meaningfully higher here, but in the EV space, anything can happen. But the bottom line is that the rally looks tired to me, and I think the most prudent course of action is to take profits and wait for a lower re-entry.</p><p><blockquote>14 天 RSI 也表现出类似的行为，因为它在达到极端超买条件后正在翻转。这一切的要点是，这只股票在一个月的时间里翻了一番，而且涨势看起来很疲惫。我在这里看不到一条合理的更高路径，但在电动汽车领域，任何事情都可能发生。但底线是，反弹在我看来很疲惫，我认为最谨慎的做法是获利了结并等待更低的重新进入。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New developments</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新发展</b></blockquote></p><p> There have been some interesting developments since my last update on Fisker, and ones that have the potential to drive the share price over time.</p><p><blockquote>自从我上次更新 Fisker 以来，出现了一些有趣的进展，并且随着时间的推移，这些进展有可能推动股价。</blockquote></p><p> First up, short interest in Fisker is soaring, and after the numerous highly-shorted stocks we’ve seen go to the moon this year, that’s worth noting. Below is Fisker’s short interest for reference.</p><p><blockquote>首先，对 Fisker 的空头兴趣正在飙升，在今年我们看到的众多高度做空的股票纷纷下跌之后，这一点值得注意。以下是菲斯克的空头利息，供参考。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd732eb0644d9370ff55d207057d6485\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"364\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Short interest has roughly quadrupled since February, and is rising all the time. The kinds of rallies that we’ve seen in Fisker can cause short squeezes because shorts on the wrong side of a parabolic rally can often panic buy to cover their shorts, leading to a short squeeze.</p><p><blockquote>自二月份以来，空头兴趣大约翻了两番，并且一直在上升。我们在菲斯克看到的那种反弹会导致空头挤压，因为抛物线反弹反面的空头往往会恐慌性买入来弥补空头，从而导致空头挤压。</blockquote></p><p> Fisker’s current rally lacks the volume of a short squeeze, so I firmly believe this rally is not a result of high short interest, but is instead buyers just buying the stock. If shorts throw in the towel, Fisker could squeeze a lot higher than it is today. To be clear, I’m not saying Fisker is the next short squeeze, but what I am saying is that 45M shares short is roughly seven days’ worth of normal volume, so it’s significant. I certainly also would not short Fisker at these levels for that reason.</p><p><blockquote>菲斯克目前的反弹缺乏空头挤压的成交量，因此我坚信这次反弹不是空头兴趣高的结果，而是买家刚刚买入股票的结果。如果空头认输，菲斯克的股价可能会比今天高得多。需要明确的是，我并不是说菲斯克是下一个做空对象，但我想说的是，4500 万股的做空量大约相当于七天的正常成交量，所以这意义重大。出于这个原因，我当然也不会在这些水平上做空菲斯克。</blockquote></p><p> In short, I do not believe Fisker is the next short squeeze candidate because squeezes usually occur when a stock is at or near a top, and thus most or all short sellers are underwater. Fisker isn't anywhere close to its former high, and given how tired the rally looks today, I see the odds of that occurring as low.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，我不认为菲斯克是下一个空头挤压候选人，因为挤压通常发生在股票处于或接近顶部时，因此大多数或所有卖空者都处于水下。菲斯克距离之前的高点还很远，考虑到今天的反弹看起来多么疲惫，我认为这种情况发生的可能性很低。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> From a fundamental perspective, Fisker continues to make progress towards making production a reality of its Ocean SUV, as evidenced in itsQ1 report. The company ended the quarter with $985 million in cash, which is good enough for about 10 quarters at the current run rate; in Q1, the company spent $29 million on operating activities, and $66 million in capex. The company also said the majority of the Ocean has been sourced, which is improving cost visibility as prior questions have become answers.</p><p><blockquote>从基本面角度来看，菲斯克在实现其海洋SUV的生产方面继续取得进展，正如其第一季度报告所证明的那样。该公司本季度末拥有 9.85 亿美元现金，按照目前的运行速度，这足够维持大约 10 个季度；第一季度，该公司在运营活动上花费了 2900 万美元，在资本支出上花费了 6600 万美元。该公司还表示，大部分海洋都是采购的，这提高了成本的可见性，因为之前的问题已经成为答案。</blockquote></p><p> I don’t think Fisker has unlimited runway in terms of cash, but it should have enough to get to production of the Ocean, which is still slated for late this year, or early next year. That’s very important because Fisker needs the cash to start rolling in fairly soon, or further capital raises will be necessary.</p><p><blockquote>我不认为菲斯克在现金方面有无限的发展空间，但它应该有足够的资金来制作《海洋》，该片仍定于今年年底或明年初上映。这一点非常重要，因为菲斯克需要现金尽快开始滚动，否则就需要进一步融资。</blockquote></p><p> Fisker says it has 16k reservations for Oceans at this point, but as we know, reservations for new vehicles are very low cost for the consumer, and don’t represent an obligation to buy. Given this, I take them with a grain of salt. But on the plus side, Fisker has done essentially no advertising, and I’d be willing to bet the vast majority of Americans have no idea what Fisker is. That indicates that there may be some legs to the Ocean, but we’ll have to wait and see.</p><p><blockquote>Fisker 表示，目前该公司已为 Oceans 预订了 1.6 万辆，但据我们所知，预订新车对消费者来说成本非常低，并不构成购买的义务。有鉴于此，我对它们持保留态度。但从好的方面来看，菲斯克基本上没有做过广告，我敢打赌，绝大多数美国人根本不知道菲斯克是什么。这表明可能会有一些通往海洋的腿，但我们还得拭目以待。</blockquote></p><p> Perhaps most importantly, Fisker has an ambitious plan to produce a sub-$30k EV, currently calledProject PEAR. The company has signed Foxconn to make the vehicle, which won’t be available for another two years or so. But it represents another step towards Fisker becoming more mainstream, and if the company can execute, it could grab big chunks of market share. I’ll caveat that producing sub-$30k EVs is no small task because the batteries are very expensive. This is why others have struggled to do the same thing, and I have no reason to think Fisker won’t struggle as well. However, if the Ocean is a success, and provides the cash to develop PEAR, Fisker could be off to the races. PEAR is just an idea at this point, so don’t get too excited, but Fisker certainly has grand plans.</p><p><blockquote>也许最重要的是，菲斯克有一个雄心勃勃的计划来生产一款售价低于 3 万美元的电动汽车，目前称为 Project PEAR。该公司已与富士康签约生产这款车，但这款车还要两年左右才能上市。但这代表着菲斯克走向更加主流的又一步，如果该公司能够执行，它可能会抢占大块市场份额。我要提醒的是，生产低于 3 万美元的电动汽车并非易事，因为电池非常昂贵。这就是为什么其他人都在努力做同样的事情，我没有理由认为菲斯克不会也在努力。然而，如果海洋是成功的，并提供了开发梨的现金，菲斯克可能会去参加比赛。PEAR 目前只是一个想法，所以不要太兴奋，但 Fisker 肯定有宏伟的计划。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation remains mixed</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值仍然好坏参半</b></blockquote></p><p> The tricky thing about valuing startups is that the targets – whether it is revenue or earnings – move all the time. In Fisker’s case, it is apparent that some targets were probably a bit optimistic, especially for revenue.</p><p><blockquote>对初创公司进行估值的棘手之处在于，目标——无论是收入还是盈利——一直在变化。就菲斯克而言，很明显，有些目标可能有点乐观，尤其是在收入方面。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52fe37a0a60e26d5c3aba548bd4b0b0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"166\"><span>Source:Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Seeking Alpha</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Estimates for the out years have come up slightly in the past month – likely due to analysts building PEAR into projections – but in the past six months, estimates are off by a third in some cases. You have to remember if you buy this stock that Fisker isn’t slated to receive<i>any</i>revenue until next year, and even then, progress will start slowly. But if Fisker does achieve $8+ billion in revenue by 2025, buying the stock today will have proven a prescient move. There are just so many steps between now and then that the ride will be extremely volatile to say the least.</p><p><blockquote>过去一个月，对未来几年的预测略有上升——可能是由于分析师将 PEAR 纳入预测——但在过去六个月中，在某些情况下，预测偏离了三分之一。你必须记住，如果你购买了菲斯克不打算收到的这只股票<i>任何</i>收入要到明年，即便如此，进展也会开始缓慢。但如果菲斯克到 2025 年确实实现 80 多亿美元的收入，那么今天购买该股票将被证明是一个有先见之明的举动。从现在到那时有太多的步骤，至少可以说，旅程将非常不稳定。</blockquote></p><p> That is illustrated nicely by EPS estimates.</p><p><blockquote>每股收益估计很好地说明了这一点。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/730bfe2971ecbf2c150c244c474bd7c7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\"><span>Source:Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Seeking Alpha</span></p></blockquote></p><p> EPS is almost certainly going to be negative for at least this year and next year, but if production ramps the way it should for Ocean, Fisker has an outside chance at hitting breakeven in 2023. If scale is achieved, we could see very strong EPS, with 2025 current at $3.72 per share, and 2026 at $4.95. If Ocean succeeds, and Fisker can produce PEAR in sufficient numbers, these estimates could become reality. But you can see the consternation among market participants in that a stock with $5 in EPS five years from now is trading for $18,<i>after</i>doubling in a month. In other words, the share price is pricing in the fact that these estimates are simply guesses at this point. Said another way, if there was some certainty around $5 in EPS in 2026, it would be reasonable to see a multiple of 10 or 12 on that number, or a share price of $50 to $60. We're at a small fraction of that, which is pricing in the massive uncertainty of the company achieving these results.</p><p><blockquote>几乎可以肯定，至少今年和明年的每股收益将为负，但如果 Ocean 的产量像应有的那样增加，Fisker 就有机会在 2023 年实现盈亏平衡。如果实现规模，我们可能会看到非常强劲的每股收益，2025 年目前为每股 3.72 美元，2026 年为每股 4.95 美元。如果 Ocean 取得成功，并且 Fisker 能够生产足够数量的梨，这些估计可能会成为现实。但你可以看到市场参与者的恐慌，因为五年后每股收益为 5 美元的股票现在交易价格为 18 美元，<i>之后</i>一个月翻倍。换句话说，股价正在定价，因为这些估计在这一点上只是猜测。换句话说，如果 2026 年每股收益在 5 美元左右有一定的确定性，那么该数字的倍数是 10 或 12，或者股价在 50 至 60 美元之间是合理的。我们只占其中的一小部分，这是对公司实现这些结果的巨大不确定性进行定价。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> The bottom line on Fisker is that the company is so far from making any sort of meaningful revenue – and even further from profits – that it is mostly a momentum trade as a result. The stock has doubled in the past month, and I see cracks in the rally’s strength, so I think it is once again time to take profits and wait for a lower re-entry price.</p><p><blockquote>菲斯克的底线是，该公司远未产生任何有意义的收入，甚至更未产生利润，因此它主要是一种动量交易。该股在过去一个月里翻了一番，我看到了反弹的强度出现了裂缝，因此我认为又到了获利了结并等待更低的重新入场价格的时候了。</blockquote></p><p> I think Fisker has the potential to be a winner in the long-term, but the path to get there is fraught with obstacles. I once again see potential and current price fairly balanced, and for that reason, I’m back to neutral on Fisker.</p><p><blockquote>我认为菲斯克有潜力成为长期赢家，但实现这一目标的道路充满了障碍。我再次看到潜在价格和当前价格相当平衡，因此，我对菲斯克的看法又回到了中性。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434973-is-fisker-the-next-short-squeeze\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"FSR":"菲斯克"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434973-is-fisker-the-next-short-squeeze","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141264092","content_text":"Summary\n\nFSR is up 72% since my bullish call just a month ago.\nWith that sort of move, caution is warranted on further gains.\nNew fundamental developments lay out the future path for Fisker.\n\njonathanfilskov-photography/iStock via Getty Images\nThe electric vehicle space has been, let’s say, volatile over the past year or so. OG Tesla(TSLA) continues to dwarf all other comers in terms of market cap, but there are numerous new competitors, many of which are so new, they don’t even have any revenue yet. One such example is the reincarnated Fisker Inc.(FSR), which is founder Henrik Fisker’s second go at making an electric automaker.\nI wrote apieceon Fisker about a month ago when the share price was $10.69, saying it was a great time to buy. Shares are 72% higher than that today – amassivemove in the space of four weeks – but such is the nature of the game in electric vehicles. Up 72%, the big question is, do you continue to hold? In this case, I think the answer is “no”, but with some caveats.\nSource: StockCharts\nFirst, let’s take a look at the chart, which highlights just how volatile this thing really is. Prior support in the low-$14s was lost during the last downturn, and the stock eventually bottomed at $9.61. Since then, shares havedoubled, and we’ve seen a complete reset in terms of sentiment for Fisker. One thing you must understand is that Fisker and other zero-revenue EV makers trade on momentum and sentiment rather than fundamentals, so you must be nimble.\nI would look for that low-$14 area to hold as support on the next pullback, but I’ll also note that it isn’t all that strong, having failed miserably last time there was a selloff. But if the stock is going to bounce, that will likely be the area it will happen.\nI’ll also note the PPO is very overbought, and is very close to the same levels where prior rallies have lost steam and eventually rolled over. That means the odds of a further rally from here are greatly diminishing, as the bulls have made a Herculean push already, and there are signs the push is ending, at least temporarily.\nThe 14-day RSI is showing similar behavior, as it is rolling over after reaching extreme overbought conditions. The point of all of this is that this stock has doubled in the space of a month, and the rally looks tired. I don’t see a reasonable path meaningfully higher here, but in the EV space, anything can happen. But the bottom line is that the rally looks tired to me, and I think the most prudent course of action is to take profits and wait for a lower re-entry.\nNew developments\nThere have been some interesting developments since my last update on Fisker, and ones that have the potential to drive the share price over time.\nFirst up, short interest in Fisker is soaring, and after the numerous highly-shorted stocks we’ve seen go to the moon this year, that’s worth noting. Below is Fisker’s short interest for reference.\nSource: YCharts\nShort interest has roughly quadrupled since February, and is rising all the time. The kinds of rallies that we’ve seen in Fisker can cause short squeezes because shorts on the wrong side of a parabolic rally can often panic buy to cover their shorts, leading to a short squeeze.\nFisker’s current rally lacks the volume of a short squeeze, so I firmly believe this rally is not a result of high short interest, but is instead buyers just buying the stock. If shorts throw in the towel, Fisker could squeeze a lot higher than it is today. To be clear, I’m not saying Fisker is the next short squeeze, but what I am saying is that 45M shares short is roughly seven days’ worth of normal volume, so it’s significant. I certainly also would not short Fisker at these levels for that reason.\nIn short, I do not believe Fisker is the next short squeeze candidate because squeezes usually occur when a stock is at or near a top, and thus most or all short sellers are underwater. Fisker isn't anywhere close to its former high, and given how tired the rally looks today, I see the odds of that occurring as low.\nFrom a fundamental perspective, Fisker continues to make progress towards making production a reality of its Ocean SUV, as evidenced in itsQ1 report. The company ended the quarter with $985 million in cash, which is good enough for about 10 quarters at the current run rate; in Q1, the company spent $29 million on operating activities, and $66 million in capex. The company also said the majority of the Ocean has been sourced, which is improving cost visibility as prior questions have become answers.\nI don’t think Fisker has unlimited runway in terms of cash, but it should have enough to get to production of the Ocean, which is still slated for late this year, or early next year. That’s very important because Fisker needs the cash to start rolling in fairly soon, or further capital raises will be necessary.\nFisker says it has 16k reservations for Oceans at this point, but as we know, reservations for new vehicles are very low cost for the consumer, and don’t represent an obligation to buy. Given this, I take them with a grain of salt. But on the plus side, Fisker has done essentially no advertising, and I’d be willing to bet the vast majority of Americans have no idea what Fisker is. That indicates that there may be some legs to the Ocean, but we’ll have to wait and see.\nPerhaps most importantly, Fisker has an ambitious plan to produce a sub-$30k EV, currently calledProject PEAR. The company has signed Foxconn to make the vehicle, which won’t be available for another two years or so. But it represents another step towards Fisker becoming more mainstream, and if the company can execute, it could grab big chunks of market share. I’ll caveat that producing sub-$30k EVs is no small task because the batteries are very expensive. This is why others have struggled to do the same thing, and I have no reason to think Fisker won’t struggle as well. However, if the Ocean is a success, and provides the cash to develop PEAR, Fisker could be off to the races. PEAR is just an idea at this point, so don’t get too excited, but Fisker certainly has grand plans.\nValuation remains mixed\nThe tricky thing about valuing startups is that the targets – whether it is revenue or earnings – move all the time. In Fisker’s case, it is apparent that some targets were probably a bit optimistic, especially for revenue.\nSource:Seeking Alpha\nEstimates for the out years have come up slightly in the past month – likely due to analysts building PEAR into projections – but in the past six months, estimates are off by a third in some cases. You have to remember if you buy this stock that Fisker isn’t slated to receiveanyrevenue until next year, and even then, progress will start slowly. But if Fisker does achieve $8+ billion in revenue by 2025, buying the stock today will have proven a prescient move. There are just so many steps between now and then that the ride will be extremely volatile to say the least.\nThat is illustrated nicely by EPS estimates.\nSource:Seeking Alpha\nEPS is almost certainly going to be negative for at least this year and next year, but if production ramps the way it should for Ocean, Fisker has an outside chance at hitting breakeven in 2023. If scale is achieved, we could see very strong EPS, with 2025 current at $3.72 per share, and 2026 at $4.95. If Ocean succeeds, and Fisker can produce PEAR in sufficient numbers, these estimates could become reality. But you can see the consternation among market participants in that a stock with $5 in EPS five years from now is trading for $18,afterdoubling in a month. In other words, the share price is pricing in the fact that these estimates are simply guesses at this point. Said another way, if there was some certainty around $5 in EPS in 2026, it would be reasonable to see a multiple of 10 or 12 on that number, or a share price of $50 to $60. We're at a small fraction of that, which is pricing in the massive uncertainty of the company achieving these results.\nFinal thoughts\nThe bottom line on Fisker is that the company is so far from making any sort of meaningful revenue – and even further from profits – that it is mostly a momentum trade as a result. The stock has doubled in the past month, and I see cracks in the rally’s strength, so I think it is once again time to take profits and wait for a lower re-entry price.\nI think Fisker has the potential to be a winner in the long-term, but the path to get there is fraught with obstacles. I once again see potential and current price fairly balanced, and for that reason, I’m back to neutral on Fisker.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"FSR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1024,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112370175,"gmtCreate":1622853446297,"gmtModify":1631893747938,"author":{"id":"3582016561552186","authorId":"3582016561552186","name":"KMK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef525a9485b7272e73ab442de514d467","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016561552186","authorIdStr":"3582016561552186"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"AMC!!!","listText":"AMC!!!","text":"AMC!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/112370175","repostId":"2140409543","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2140409543","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1622818486,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2140409543?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-04 22:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC, GameStop and Nokia are lumped together, but not all meme stocks are alike -- whether you are a day-trader or a long-term investor<blockquote>AMC、游戏驿站和诺基亚被归为一类，但并非所有模因股票都相同——无论您是日内交易者还是长期投资者</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2140409543","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"AMC, GameStop and Nokia are lumped together, but not all meme stocks are alike -- whether you are a ","content":"<p>AMC, GameStop and Nokia are lumped together, but not all meme stocks are alike -- whether you are a day-trader or a long-term investor.</p><p><blockquote>AMC、游戏驿站和诺基亚被归为一类，但并非所有模因股票都是一样的——无论你是日内交易者还是长期投资者。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7eb63d677cb5d8a8a6a2c67fc4bb2698\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"896\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Many meme stocks discussed on Reddit's WallStreetBets channel are up by triple digits during 2021. (Photo by Olivier Douliery/AFP via Getty Images)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Reddit 的 WallStreetBets 频道上讨论的许多模因股票在 2021 年上涨了三位数。（Olivier Douliery/AFP via Getty Images 摄）</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Every day the meme stocks dominate the financial media. And rightly so -- they are illustrating the power of communications, as traders and investors seek to follow momentum to big profits.</p><p><blockquote>每天，迷因股票都主导着财经媒体。这是理所当然的——它们说明了沟通的力量，因为交易者和投资者寻求跟随势头获得巨额利润。</blockquote></p><p>It's easy to dismiss the phenomenon, because it isn't based on companies' traditional measures of profitability or sales growth, ratios of share prices to earnings or sales, or even innovative products or services. But so much money is trading around these stocks that you should at least learn about what is going on.</p><p><blockquote>人们很容易忽视这种现象，因为它不是基于公司对盈利能力或销售增长、股价与收益或销售额的比率，甚至不是基于创新产品或服务的传统衡量标准。但围绕这些股票交易的资金如此之多，以至于你至少应该了解一下正在发生的事情。</blockquote></p><p>Traders trying to understand the momentum and make quick gains will, of course, look at daily trading volumes and the immediate direction of share prices. But there are also measures of momentum among people communicating in Reddit's WallStreetBets channel and other social media. One of these, called a \"social sentiment analysis,\" was developed by HypeEquity and described here  by Thornton McEnery.</p><p><blockquote>试图了解势头并快速获利的交易者当然会关注每日交易量和股价的即时方向。但在 Reddit 的 WallStreetBets 频道和其他社交媒体上交流的人们也有势头。其中之一被称为“社会情绪分析”，是由HypeEquity开发的，由Thornton McEnery在这里描述。</blockquote></p><p>But you might also be interested in whether any of these stocks might make good long-term investments. Or you may want to see financial information and standard stock valuations for the meme stocks, as part of your arguments against them.</p><p><blockquote>但您可能也对这些股票是否可以进行良好的长期投资感兴趣。或者你可能想看到迷因股票的财务信息和标准股票估值，作为你反对它们的论点的一部分。</blockquote></p><p><b>The meme stocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>模因股票</b></blockquote></p><p>In talk of meme stocks, there is an acronym, BANG. BlackBerry Ltd. (BB.T) is the first of the group of four, which also includes AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc., Nokia Corp. and GameStop Corp.. But there are four other meme stocks that have had a lot of recent social-media buzz and trading activity that we can add to make a list of eight.</p><p><blockquote>在谈论模因股票时，有一个缩写词，BANG。黑莓有限公司（BB.T）是四家集团中的第一家，这四家集团还包括AMC院线控股公司、诺基亚公司和游戏驿站公司..但还有另外四只模因股票最近在社交媒体上引起了很多关注和交易活动，我们可以将它们添加到八只模因股票中。</blockquote></p><p>Here they are, sorted by market capitalization in millions of dollars:</p><p><blockquote>它们如下，按市值（以百万美元计）排序：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aba33d56ca09708aa22c36412ba22e13\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>(FACTSET)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（事实集）</span></p></blockquote></p><p>AMC's market capitalization is up more than sevenfold this year. All of the listed meme stocks' valuations have rocketed, although only by double digits for Nokia and Bed Bath &amp; Beyond.</p><p><blockquote>AMC 的市值今年增长了七倍多。所有上市模因股票的估值都飙升，尽管诺基亚和 Bed Bath &amp; Beyond 的估值仅达到了两位数。</blockquote></p><p>The boards of directors of AMC and GameStop each took advantage of the excitement among traders and sold new shares to the public to raise billions of dollars. AMC announced and completed the sale of 11.55 million new shares  June 3.</p><p><blockquote>AMC和游戏驿站的董事会各自利用交易员的兴奋情绪，向公众出售新股，筹集了数十亿美元。AMC于6月3日宣布并完成1155万股新股的出售。</blockquote></p><p><b>Short interest</b></p><p><blockquote><b>空头利息</b></blockquote></p><p>What started this year's meme-stock craze was an opportunity described on WallStreetBets to create short-squeezes on heavily shorted stocks.</p><p><blockquote>引发今年模因股票热潮的是《华尔街投注》中描述的一个机会，即对严重做空的股票进行挤空。</blockquote></p><p>Here's a definition of short-selling and its risks:</p><p><blockquote>以下是卖空及其风险的定义：</blockquote></p><p>So you have unlimited risk if you short-sell stock -- you never know how high its price might go. If you buy shares outright (that is, take a long position), you have only risked the amount you invested.</p><p><blockquote>因此，如果你卖空股票，你将面临无限的风险——你永远不知道它的价格会涨多高。如果您直接购买股票（即做多头头寸），您只承担了投资金额的风险。</blockquote></p><p>If you have shorted a stock and its price has gone the wrong way -- up -- your broker might make a margin call, which means you need to deliver cash to cover the broker's risk. Short-sellers are told these rules by their brokers before entering short trades. But the margin requirements can lead to short squeezes when investors run out of cash. Brokers will force-sell the shares if the required cash margin isn't maintained by the investor/trader.</p><p><blockquote>如果你做空了一只股票，而它的价格走错了方向——上涨——你的经纪人可能会收取保证金看涨期权，这意味着你需要提供现金来弥补经纪人的风险。卖空者在进行卖空交易之前，他们的经纪人会告诉他们这些规则。但当投资者现金耗尽时，保证金要求可能会导致做空。如果投资者/交易者没有维持所需的现金保证金，经纪人将强制出售股票。</blockquote></p><p>So at the early stage of meme-stock mania, the WallStreetBets crew was able to buy shares of heavily shorted stocks as a group, which drove their prices higher and even led to covering (at losses) by professionals. The resulting short-squeeze made a lot of money for traders whose timing was right. And the buzz has continued since then as the meme stocks have bounced up and down.</p><p><blockquote>因此，在迷因股票狂热的早期阶段，WallStreetBets 团队能够作为一个群体购买被严重做空的股票，这推高了它们的价格，甚至导致专业人士（亏损）进行回补。由此产生的空头挤压为时机正确的交易者赚了很多钱。从那时起，随着模因股票的上下反弹，这种热潮一直在持续。</blockquote></p><p>Here's a year-to-date chart showing total returns for the BANG stocks through June 3:</p><p><blockquote>这是今年迄今为止的图表，显示了截至 6 月 3 日 BANG 股票的总回报：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab1dfc0cfac9109e4ee8cc15580a220e\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"1038\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>(FACTSET)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（事实集）</span></p></blockquote></p><p>How much short interest is there now for this group of eight stocks? Here they are, ranked again by market cap:</p><p><blockquote>这八只股票现在有多少空头兴趣？它们在这里，再次按市值排名：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ed9c41992b0fdf7c30467bbb882e58\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>(FACTSET)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（事实集）</span></p></blockquote></p><p>FactSet's data on short positions as a percentage of shares outstanding is updated twice a month, with the second update around the 25th day of the month.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet 的空头头寸占已发行股票的百分比数据每月更新两次，第二次更新在每月 25 日左右。</blockquote></p><p>The \"dollars short\" figure is of interest, as it gives some additional perspective to the short percentages. For example, 4.2% of Tesla Inc. shares are sold short, but that amounts to $24.2 billion in short interest, because the market cap is $583 billion.</p><p><blockquote>“美元空头”数字很有趣，因为它为空头百分比提供了一些额外的视角。例如，特斯拉公司 4.2% 的股票被卖空，但这相当于 242 亿美元的空头利息，因为市值为 5830 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>In late January,when GameStop had a seemingly impossible 138% in short interest, Brad Lamensdorf, CEO of ActiveAlts in Westport, Conn., who runs long and short investment strategies, said a short percentage “over 30% to 40% is outrageously high.” At that time we listed 30 stocks in the S&amp;P Composite 1500 Index that were shorted 25% or more. (Lamensdorf co-manages the AdvisorShares Ranger Equity Bear ETF,which is meant to be used as a hedging tool.)</p><p><blockquote>1 月下旬，游戏驿站持有 138% 的空头利息，这似乎是不可能的。康涅狄格州韦斯特波特市 ActiveAlts 的首席执行官 Brad Lamensdorf 表示，空头利息 “超过 30% 到 40% 是高得离谱的”。当时，我们在标准普尔综合 1500 指数中列出了 30 只被做空 25% 或以上的股票。（Lamensdorf 共同管理 AdvisorShares Ranger Equity Bear ETF，该基金旨在用作对冲工具。）</blockquote></p><p>But now, only four stocks in the index are short 25% or more, according to FactSet's most recent data: Geo Group Inc., which operates prisons, with 33.2% short interest, Bed Bath Beyond, PetMed Express Inc., with 28.7% short interest and B&amp;G Foods Inc., with 25.8% of shares sold short. (Getting back to Geo Group, President Biden signed an executive order to phase-out federal contracts with private prison operator</p><p><blockquote>但现在，根据 FactSet 的最新数据，该指数中只有四只股票做空 25% 或以上：经营监狱的 Geo Group Inc.，空头权益为 33.2%，Bed Bath Beyond，PetMed Express Inc.，空头权益为 28.7%，B&amp;G Foods Inc.，25.8% 的股票被卖空。（回到Geo集团，拜登总统签署了一项行政命令，逐步取消与私营监狱运营商的联邦合同</blockquote></p><p>So this year's action with the meme stocks has had quite an effect on the stock market, quelling short-selling in general. That said, even with low short-interest numbers for Nokia and Koss Corp., both stocks have had short-squeezes this year.</p><p><blockquote>因此，今年对模因股票的行动对股市产生了相当大的影响，总体上平息了卖空。尽管如此，尽管诺基亚和科斯公司的空头利息数量较低，但这两只股票今年都出现了空头挤压。</blockquote></p><p><b>Meme stocks' fundamentals</b></p><p><blockquote><b>模因股票的基本面</b></blockquote></p><p>To analyze the meme companies' financial results and prospects, we will look back and then ahead. The coronavirus pandemic had an obvious brutal affect on AMC, as its theaters were all closed. It had reopened nearly all U.S. theaters with limited capacity by he end of March.</p><p><blockquote>为了分析模因公司的财务业绩和前景，我们将回顾过去，然后展望未来。冠状病毒疫情对 AMC 产生了明显的残酷影响，因为其影院全部关闭。到3月底，它已经重新开放了几乎所有容量有限的美国影院。</blockquote></p><p>GameStop has been challenged for years by a fundamental problem for a videogame retailer: More content being sold online, even for console gaming systems, rather than through Blu-ray or other media that were sold at the stores.</p><p><blockquote>多年来，游戏驿站一直受到视频游戏零售商的一个根本问题的挑战：更多的内容在网上销售，甚至是主机游戏系统，而不是通过商店销售的蓝光或其他媒体。</blockquote></p><p>So AMC and GameStop were obvious candidates for shorting until traders were able to group together via Reddit and online trading applications, including Robinhood, to cause the short-squeezes.</p><p><blockquote>因此，AMC 和游戏驿站显然是做空的候选者，直到交易者能够通过 Reddit 和包括 Robinhood 在内的在线交易应用程序聚集在一起，造成空头挤压。</blockquote></p><p><b>Five-year review</b></p><p><blockquote><b>五年审查</b></blockquote></p><p>First, let's look at the direction of all eight companies' sales results over the past five full fiscal years. We're looking at fiscal years because for several of these companies, fiscal years don't match the calendar:</p><p><blockquote>首先，我们来看看所有八家公司过去五个完整财年的销售业绩走向。我们正在研究财政年度，因为对于其中一些公司来说，财政年度与日历不符：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d17671a0a5c84afe766af5c33337e8f\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>(FACTSET)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（事实集）</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Even before the pandemic, AMC's sales had declined during 2019. So did Nokia's, although the company is putting up impressive sales numbers for one that makes mobile telecommunications devices and isn't Apple Inc. or Samsung. GameStop has suffered four years of annual sales declines, while Bed Bath &amp; Beyond Inc. has been a little better.</p><p><blockquote>即使在大流行之前，AMC 的销售额在 2019 年就有所下降。诺基亚也是如此，尽管该公司为一家生产移动电信设备而不是苹果或三星的公司公布了令人印象深刻的销售数字。游戏驿站的年销售额连续四年下降，而 Bed Bath &amp; Beyond Inc. 的情况稍好一些。</blockquote></p><p><b>Looking ahead -- sales</b></p><p><blockquote><b>展望未来——销售</b></blockquote></p><p>What if AMC and GameStop were able to put all that money they have raised to good use? Starting from a baseline of calendar 2021, to get past most of the effect of the pandemic in the U.S., here are sales projections going out another two years, where possible:</p><p><blockquote>如果AMC和游戏驿站能够很好地利用他们筹集的所有资金呢？从 2021 年日历的基线开始，为了克服美国疫情的大部分影响，以下是未来两年（如果可能的话）的销售预测：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ae59307eca7f4f03a7e0f0efb0b3b16\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"454\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>(FACTSET)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（事实集）</span></p></blockquote></p><p>You may have noticed that Koss isn't included in the sales projections table. That is because FactSet was unable to obtain any financial estimates, ratings or targets from analysts at brokerage firms for the company.</p><p><blockquote>您可能已经注意到，Koss不包括在销售预测表中。这是因为 FactSet 无法从经纪公司分析师那里获得该公司的任何财务估计、评级或目标。</blockquote></p><p>Among the companies for which we have estimates for 2023, AMC is expected to show a sales recovery to come close to pre-pandemic levels. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TLRY\">Tilray Inc.</a> is expected to continue on its growth course for marijuana supply. Nokia is expected to show modest sales growth through 2023.</p><p><blockquote>在我们预测 2023 年的公司中，AMC 预计销售额将复苏，接近大流行前的水平。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TLRY\">蒂尔雷公司。</a>预计大麻供应将继续增长。诺基亚预计到 2023 年销售额将出现适度增长。</blockquote></p><p>The right-most column is a hybrid of market cap as of June 3 to the furthest-out sales estimate available. Nokia looks cheap, and Wall Street analysts concur, as you will see below. This company stands apart from the other meme stocks.</p><p><blockquote>最右边的一列是截至 6 月 3 日的市值与可用的最远销售估计值的混合体。诺基亚看起来很便宜，华尔街分析师也同意这一点，如下所示。这家公司有别于其他模因股票。</blockquote></p><p>Putting those price-to-sales estimates into perspective, the benchmark S&amp;P 500 Index  trades for 2.5 times the weighted aggregate 2023 sales estimate for its component companies.</p><p><blockquote>从这些市销率估算来看，基准标普500指数的交易价格是其成分公司 2023 年加权总销售额估算的 2.5 倍。</blockquote></p><p><b>Looking ahead -- earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>展望未来——收益</b></blockquote></p><p>Let's do the same exercise for earnings-per-share estimates going out to 2023, where possible:</p><p><blockquote>如果可能的话，让我们对 2023 年的每股收益预测进行同样的练习：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1715e49d9cfc910a0210abbac48d591c\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>(FACTSET)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（事实集）</span></p></blockquote></p><p>For expected changes in EPS, we have \"N/A\" for most companies because the EPS estimates for AMC and BlackBerry are all negative, while estimates swing from negative to positive to negative for GameStop and Tilray. For the companies expected to remain consistently profitable -- Nokia and Bed Bath &amp; Beyond -- the ratios of current price to 2023 EPS estimates are lower than the ratio of 18.4 for the S&amp;P 500.</p><p><blockquote>对于每股收益的预期变化，我们对大多数公司都是“不适用”，因为 AMC 和黑莓的每股收益预期都是负数，而游戏驿站和 Tilray 的预期则从负数到正数再到负数。对于预计将持续盈利的公司（诺基亚和 Bed Bath &amp; Beyond）来说，当前价格与 2023 年每股收益预测的比率低于标普500 18.4 的比率。</blockquote></p><p><b>Wall Street's ratings and targets</b></p><p><blockquote><b>华尔街的评级和目标</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>Analysts at brokerage firms tend to shy away from negative ratings. They also set 12-month price targets. Those can be considered too short for some long-term investors looking to invest in companies that compound sales and profit at decent rates over many years. But the 12 months can be an eternity for traders trying to jump on volatile meme-stocks for gains.</p><p><blockquote>经纪公司的分析师往往回避负面评级。他们还设定了 12 个月的价格目标。对于一些希望投资于能够在多年内以可观的利率实现销售额和利润复合的公司的长期投资者来说，这些期限可能被认为太短了。但对于试图在波动较大的模因股票上获利的交易者来说，这 12 个月可能是永恒的。</blockquote></p><p>Here's a summary of sentiment among Wall Street analysts for seven of the eight meme stocks listed above (again skipping Koss, for which no ratings or estimates are available):</p><p><blockquote>以下是华尔街分析师对上面列出的八只模因股票中的七只的情绪总结（再次跳过 Koss，没有评级或估计）：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe15e31e65f68d1022120cdd3aeebf2\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"454\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>(FACTSET)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（事实集）</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Nokia stands out with majority \"buy\" or equivalent ratings. But the stock was a bit ahead of the consensus price target as of the close June 3.</p><p><blockquote>诺基亚以大多数“买入”或同等评级脱颖而出。但截至 6 月 3 日收盘，该股略高于共识目标价。</blockquote></p><p>For the other meme stocks, a focus on the daily buzz in Reddit and other social media may be your best way to gain insight into very difficult and risky trading.</p><p><blockquote>对于其他迷因股票，关注 Reddit 和其他社交媒体上的每日热点可能是您深入了解非常困难和风险的交易的最佳方式。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC, GameStop and Nokia are lumped together, but not all meme stocks are alike -- whether you are a day-trader or a long-term investor<blockquote>AMC、游戏驿站和诺基亚被归为一类，但并非所有模因股票都相同——无论您是日内交易者还是长期投资者</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC, GameStop and Nokia are lumped together, but not all meme stocks are alike -- whether you are a day-trader or a long-term investor<blockquote>AMC、游戏驿站和诺基亚被归为一类，但并非所有模因股票都相同——无论您是日内交易者还是长期投资者</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-04 22:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>AMC, GameStop and Nokia are lumped together, but not all meme stocks are alike -- whether you are a day-trader or a long-term investor.</p><p><blockquote>AMC、游戏驿站和诺基亚被归为一类，但并非所有模因股票都是一样的——无论你是日内交易者还是长期投资者。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7eb63d677cb5d8a8a6a2c67fc4bb2698\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"896\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Many meme stocks discussed on Reddit's WallStreetBets channel are up by triple digits during 2021. (Photo by Olivier Douliery/AFP via Getty Images)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Reddit 的 WallStreetBets 频道上讨论的许多模因股票在 2021 年上涨了三位数。（Olivier Douliery/AFP via Getty Images 摄）</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Every day the meme stocks dominate the financial media. And rightly so -- they are illustrating the power of communications, as traders and investors seek to follow momentum to big profits.</p><p><blockquote>每天，迷因股票都主导着财经媒体。这是理所当然的——它们说明了沟通的力量，因为交易者和投资者寻求跟随势头获得巨额利润。</blockquote></p><p>It's easy to dismiss the phenomenon, because it isn't based on companies' traditional measures of profitability or sales growth, ratios of share prices to earnings or sales, or even innovative products or services. But so much money is trading around these stocks that you should at least learn about what is going on.</p><p><blockquote>人们很容易忽视这种现象，因为它不是基于公司对盈利能力或销售增长、股价与收益或销售额的比率，甚至不是基于创新产品或服务的传统衡量标准。但围绕这些股票交易的资金如此之多，以至于你至少应该了解一下正在发生的事情。</blockquote></p><p>Traders trying to understand the momentum and make quick gains will, of course, look at daily trading volumes and the immediate direction of share prices. But there are also measures of momentum among people communicating in Reddit's WallStreetBets channel and other social media. One of these, called a \"social sentiment analysis,\" was developed by HypeEquity and described here  by Thornton McEnery.</p><p><blockquote>试图了解势头并快速获利的交易者当然会关注每日交易量和股价的即时方向。但在 Reddit 的 WallStreetBets 频道和其他社交媒体上交流的人们也有势头。其中之一被称为“社会情绪分析”，是由HypeEquity开发的，由Thornton McEnery在这里描述。</blockquote></p><p>But you might also be interested in whether any of these stocks might make good long-term investments. Or you may want to see financial information and standard stock valuations for the meme stocks, as part of your arguments against them.</p><p><blockquote>但您可能也对这些股票是否可以进行良好的长期投资感兴趣。或者你可能想看到迷因股票的财务信息和标准股票估值，作为你反对它们的论点的一部分。</blockquote></p><p><b>The meme stocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>模因股票</b></blockquote></p><p>In talk of meme stocks, there is an acronym, BANG. BlackBerry Ltd. (BB.T) is the first of the group of four, which also includes AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc., Nokia Corp. and GameStop Corp.. But there are four other meme stocks that have had a lot of recent social-media buzz and trading activity that we can add to make a list of eight.</p><p><blockquote>在谈论模因股票时，有一个缩写词，BANG。黑莓有限公司（BB.T）是四家集团中的第一家，这四家集团还包括AMC院线控股公司、诺基亚公司和游戏驿站公司..但还有另外四只模因股票最近在社交媒体上引起了很多关注和交易活动，我们可以将它们添加到八只模因股票中。</blockquote></p><p>Here they are, sorted by market capitalization in millions of dollars:</p><p><blockquote>它们如下，按市值（以百万美元计）排序：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aba33d56ca09708aa22c36412ba22e13\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>(FACTSET)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（事实集）</span></p></blockquote></p><p>AMC's market capitalization is up more than sevenfold this year. All of the listed meme stocks' valuations have rocketed, although only by double digits for Nokia and Bed Bath &amp; Beyond.</p><p><blockquote>AMC 的市值今年增长了七倍多。所有上市模因股票的估值都飙升，尽管诺基亚和 Bed Bath &amp; Beyond 的估值仅达到了两位数。</blockquote></p><p>The boards of directors of AMC and GameStop each took advantage of the excitement among traders and sold new shares to the public to raise billions of dollars. AMC announced and completed the sale of 11.55 million new shares  June 3.</p><p><blockquote>AMC和游戏驿站的董事会各自利用交易员的兴奋情绪，向公众出售新股，筹集了数十亿美元。AMC于6月3日宣布并完成1155万股新股的出售。</blockquote></p><p><b>Short interest</b></p><p><blockquote><b>空头利息</b></blockquote></p><p>What started this year's meme-stock craze was an opportunity described on WallStreetBets to create short-squeezes on heavily shorted stocks.</p><p><blockquote>引发今年模因股票热潮的是《华尔街投注》中描述的一个机会，即对严重做空的股票进行挤空。</blockquote></p><p>Here's a definition of short-selling and its risks:</p><p><blockquote>以下是卖空及其风险的定义：</blockquote></p><p>So you have unlimited risk if you short-sell stock -- you never know how high its price might go. If you buy shares outright (that is, take a long position), you have only risked the amount you invested.</p><p><blockquote>因此，如果你卖空股票，你将面临无限的风险——你永远不知道它的价格会涨多高。如果您直接购买股票（即做多头头寸），您只承担了投资金额的风险。</blockquote></p><p>If you have shorted a stock and its price has gone the wrong way -- up -- your broker might make a margin call, which means you need to deliver cash to cover the broker's risk. Short-sellers are told these rules by their brokers before entering short trades. But the margin requirements can lead to short squeezes when investors run out of cash. Brokers will force-sell the shares if the required cash margin isn't maintained by the investor/trader.</p><p><blockquote>如果你做空了一只股票，而它的价格走错了方向——上涨——你的经纪人可能会收取保证金看涨期权，这意味着你需要提供现金来弥补经纪人的风险。卖空者在进行卖空交易之前，他们的经纪人会告诉他们这些规则。但当投资者现金耗尽时，保证金要求可能会导致做空。如果投资者/交易者没有维持所需的现金保证金，经纪人将强制出售股票。</blockquote></p><p>So at the early stage of meme-stock mania, the WallStreetBets crew was able to buy shares of heavily shorted stocks as a group, which drove their prices higher and even led to covering (at losses) by professionals. The resulting short-squeeze made a lot of money for traders whose timing was right. And the buzz has continued since then as the meme stocks have bounced up and down.</p><p><blockquote>因此，在迷因股票狂热的早期阶段，WallStreetBets 团队能够作为一个群体购买被严重做空的股票，这推高了它们的价格，甚至导致专业人士（亏损）进行回补。由此产生的空头挤压为时机正确的交易者赚了很多钱。从那时起，随着模因股票的上下反弹，这种热潮一直在持续。</blockquote></p><p>Here's a year-to-date chart showing total returns for the BANG stocks through June 3:</p><p><blockquote>这是今年迄今为止的图表，显示了截至 6 月 3 日 BANG 股票的总回报：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab1dfc0cfac9109e4ee8cc15580a220e\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"1038\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>(FACTSET)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（事实集）</span></p></blockquote></p><p>How much short interest is there now for this group of eight stocks? Here they are, ranked again by market cap:</p><p><blockquote>这八只股票现在有多少空头兴趣？它们在这里，再次按市值排名：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ed9c41992b0fdf7c30467bbb882e58\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>(FACTSET)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（事实集）</span></p></blockquote></p><p>FactSet's data on short positions as a percentage of shares outstanding is updated twice a month, with the second update around the 25th day of the month.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet 的空头头寸占已发行股票的百分比数据每月更新两次，第二次更新在每月 25 日左右。</blockquote></p><p>The \"dollars short\" figure is of interest, as it gives some additional perspective to the short percentages. For example, 4.2% of Tesla Inc. shares are sold short, but that amounts to $24.2 billion in short interest, because the market cap is $583 billion.</p><p><blockquote>“美元空头”数字很有趣，因为它为空头百分比提供了一些额外的视角。例如，特斯拉公司 4.2% 的股票被卖空，但这相当于 242 亿美元的空头利息，因为市值为 5830 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>In late January,when GameStop had a seemingly impossible 138% in short interest, Brad Lamensdorf, CEO of ActiveAlts in Westport, Conn., who runs long and short investment strategies, said a short percentage “over 30% to 40% is outrageously high.” At that time we listed 30 stocks in the S&amp;P Composite 1500 Index that were shorted 25% or more. (Lamensdorf co-manages the AdvisorShares Ranger Equity Bear ETF,which is meant to be used as a hedging tool.)</p><p><blockquote>1 月下旬，游戏驿站持有 138% 的空头利息，这似乎是不可能的。康涅狄格州韦斯特波特市 ActiveAlts 的首席执行官 Brad Lamensdorf 表示，空头利息 “超过 30% 到 40% 是高得离谱的”。当时，我们在标准普尔综合 1500 指数中列出了 30 只被做空 25% 或以上的股票。（Lamensdorf 共同管理 AdvisorShares Ranger Equity Bear ETF，该基金旨在用作对冲工具。）</blockquote></p><p>But now, only four stocks in the index are short 25% or more, according to FactSet's most recent data: Geo Group Inc., which operates prisons, with 33.2% short interest, Bed Bath Beyond, PetMed Express Inc., with 28.7% short interest and B&amp;G Foods Inc., with 25.8% of shares sold short. (Getting back to Geo Group, President Biden signed an executive order to phase-out federal contracts with private prison operator</p><p><blockquote>但现在，根据 FactSet 的最新数据，该指数中只有四只股票做空 25% 或以上：经营监狱的 Geo Group Inc.，空头权益为 33.2%，Bed Bath Beyond，PetMed Express Inc.，空头权益为 28.7%，B&amp;G Foods Inc.，25.8% 的股票被卖空。（回到Geo集团，拜登总统签署了一项行政命令，逐步取消与私营监狱运营商的联邦合同</blockquote></p><p>So this year's action with the meme stocks has had quite an effect on the stock market, quelling short-selling in general. That said, even with low short-interest numbers for Nokia and Koss Corp., both stocks have had short-squeezes this year.</p><p><blockquote>因此，今年对模因股票的行动对股市产生了相当大的影响，总体上平息了卖空。尽管如此，尽管诺基亚和科斯公司的空头利息数量较低，但这两只股票今年都出现了空头挤压。</blockquote></p><p><b>Meme stocks' fundamentals</b></p><p><blockquote><b>模因股票的基本面</b></blockquote></p><p>To analyze the meme companies' financial results and prospects, we will look back and then ahead. The coronavirus pandemic had an obvious brutal affect on AMC, as its theaters were all closed. It had reopened nearly all U.S. theaters with limited capacity by he end of March.</p><p><blockquote>为了分析模因公司的财务业绩和前景，我们将回顾过去，然后展望未来。冠状病毒疫情对 AMC 产生了明显的残酷影响，因为其影院全部关闭。到3月底，它已经重新开放了几乎所有容量有限的美国影院。</blockquote></p><p>GameStop has been challenged for years by a fundamental problem for a videogame retailer: More content being sold online, even for console gaming systems, rather than through Blu-ray or other media that were sold at the stores.</p><p><blockquote>多年来，游戏驿站一直受到视频游戏零售商的一个根本问题的挑战：更多的内容在网上销售，甚至是主机游戏系统，而不是通过商店销售的蓝光或其他媒体。</blockquote></p><p>So AMC and GameStop were obvious candidates for shorting until traders were able to group together via Reddit and online trading applications, including Robinhood, to cause the short-squeezes.</p><p><blockquote>因此，AMC 和游戏驿站显然是做空的候选者，直到交易者能够通过 Reddit 和包括 Robinhood 在内的在线交易应用程序聚集在一起，造成空头挤压。</blockquote></p><p><b>Five-year review</b></p><p><blockquote><b>五年审查</b></blockquote></p><p>First, let's look at the direction of all eight companies' sales results over the past five full fiscal years. We're looking at fiscal years because for several of these companies, fiscal years don't match the calendar:</p><p><blockquote>首先，我们来看看所有八家公司过去五个完整财年的销售业绩走向。我们正在研究财政年度，因为对于其中一些公司来说，财政年度与日历不符：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d17671a0a5c84afe766af5c33337e8f\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>(FACTSET)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（事实集）</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Even before the pandemic, AMC's sales had declined during 2019. So did Nokia's, although the company is putting up impressive sales numbers for one that makes mobile telecommunications devices and isn't Apple Inc. or Samsung. GameStop has suffered four years of annual sales declines, while Bed Bath &amp; Beyond Inc. has been a little better.</p><p><blockquote>即使在大流行之前，AMC 的销售额在 2019 年就有所下降。诺基亚也是如此，尽管该公司为一家生产移动电信设备而不是苹果或三星的公司公布了令人印象深刻的销售数字。游戏驿站的年销售额连续四年下降，而 Bed Bath &amp; Beyond Inc. 的情况稍好一些。</blockquote></p><p><b>Looking ahead -- sales</b></p><p><blockquote><b>展望未来——销售</b></blockquote></p><p>What if AMC and GameStop were able to put all that money they have raised to good use? Starting from a baseline of calendar 2021, to get past most of the effect of the pandemic in the U.S., here are sales projections going out another two years, where possible:</p><p><blockquote>如果AMC和游戏驿站能够很好地利用他们筹集的所有资金呢？从 2021 年日历的基线开始，为了克服美国疫情的大部分影响，以下是未来两年（如果可能的话）的销售预测：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ae59307eca7f4f03a7e0f0efb0b3b16\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"454\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>(FACTSET)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（事实集）</span></p></blockquote></p><p>You may have noticed that Koss isn't included in the sales projections table. That is because FactSet was unable to obtain any financial estimates, ratings or targets from analysts at brokerage firms for the company.</p><p><blockquote>您可能已经注意到，Koss不包括在销售预测表中。这是因为 FactSet 无法从经纪公司分析师那里获得该公司的任何财务估计、评级或目标。</blockquote></p><p>Among the companies for which we have estimates for 2023, AMC is expected to show a sales recovery to come close to pre-pandemic levels. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TLRY\">Tilray Inc.</a> is expected to continue on its growth course for marijuana supply. Nokia is expected to show modest sales growth through 2023.</p><p><blockquote>在我们预测 2023 年的公司中，AMC 预计销售额将复苏，接近大流行前的水平。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TLRY\">蒂尔雷公司。</a>预计大麻供应将继续增长。诺基亚预计到 2023 年销售额将出现适度增长。</blockquote></p><p>The right-most column is a hybrid of market cap as of June 3 to the furthest-out sales estimate available. Nokia looks cheap, and Wall Street analysts concur, as you will see below. This company stands apart from the other meme stocks.</p><p><blockquote>最右边的一列是截至 6 月 3 日的市值与可用的最远销售估计值的混合体。诺基亚看起来很便宜，华尔街分析师也同意这一点，如下所示。这家公司有别于其他模因股票。</blockquote></p><p>Putting those price-to-sales estimates into perspective, the benchmark S&amp;P 500 Index  trades for 2.5 times the weighted aggregate 2023 sales estimate for its component companies.</p><p><blockquote>从这些市销率估算来看，基准标普500指数的交易价格是其成分公司 2023 年加权总销售额估算的 2.5 倍。</blockquote></p><p><b>Looking ahead -- earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>展望未来——收益</b></blockquote></p><p>Let's do the same exercise for earnings-per-share estimates going out to 2023, where possible:</p><p><blockquote>如果可能的话，让我们对 2023 年的每股收益预测进行同样的练习：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1715e49d9cfc910a0210abbac48d591c\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>(FACTSET)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（事实集）</span></p></blockquote></p><p>For expected changes in EPS, we have \"N/A\" for most companies because the EPS estimates for AMC and BlackBerry are all negative, while estimates swing from negative to positive to negative for GameStop and Tilray. For the companies expected to remain consistently profitable -- Nokia and Bed Bath &amp; Beyond -- the ratios of current price to 2023 EPS estimates are lower than the ratio of 18.4 for the S&amp;P 500.</p><p><blockquote>对于每股收益的预期变化，我们对大多数公司都是“不适用”，因为 AMC 和黑莓的每股收益预期都是负数，而游戏驿站和 Tilray 的预期则从负数到正数再到负数。对于预计将持续盈利的公司（诺基亚和 Bed Bath &amp; Beyond）来说，当前价格与 2023 年每股收益预测的比率低于标普500 18.4 的比率。</blockquote></p><p><b>Wall Street's ratings and targets</b></p><p><blockquote><b>华尔街的评级和目标</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>Analysts at brokerage firms tend to shy away from negative ratings. They also set 12-month price targets. Those can be considered too short for some long-term investors looking to invest in companies that compound sales and profit at decent rates over many years. But the 12 months can be an eternity for traders trying to jump on volatile meme-stocks for gains.</p><p><blockquote>经纪公司的分析师往往回避负面评级。他们还设定了 12 个月的价格目标。对于一些希望投资于能够在多年内以可观的利率实现销售额和利润复合的公司的长期投资者来说，这些期限可能被认为太短了。但对于试图在波动较大的模因股票上获利的交易者来说，这 12 个月可能是永恒的。</blockquote></p><p>Here's a summary of sentiment among Wall Street analysts for seven of the eight meme stocks listed above (again skipping Koss, for which no ratings or estimates are available):</p><p><blockquote>以下是华尔街分析师对上面列出的八只模因股票中的七只的情绪总结（再次跳过 Koss，没有评级或估计）：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe15e31e65f68d1022120cdd3aeebf2\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"454\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>(FACTSET)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（事实集）</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Nokia stands out with majority \"buy\" or equivalent ratings. But the stock was a bit ahead of the consensus price target as of the close June 3.</p><p><blockquote>诺基亚以大多数“买入”或同等评级脱颖而出。但截至 6 月 3 日收盘，该股略高于共识目标价。</blockquote></p><p>For the other meme stocks, a focus on the daily buzz in Reddit and other social media may be your best way to gain insight into very difficult and risky trading.</p><p><blockquote>对于其他迷因股票，关注 Reddit 和其他社交媒体上的每日热点可能是您深入了解非常困难和风险的交易的最佳方式。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/we-put-these-eight-meme-stocks-through-a-rugged-analytical-test-which-are-poised-for-growth-and-which-have-big-downsides-11622810160?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MVIS":"维视图像","NOK":"诺基亚","TLRY":"Tilray Inc.","AMC":"AMC院线","BB":"黑莓","GME":"游戏驿站"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/we-put-these-eight-meme-stocks-through-a-rugged-analytical-test-which-are-poised-for-growth-and-which-have-big-downsides-11622810160?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2140409543","content_text":"AMC, GameStop and Nokia are lumped together, but not all meme stocks are alike -- whether you are a day-trader or a long-term investor.Many meme stocks discussed on Reddit's WallStreetBets channel are up by triple digits during 2021. (Photo by Olivier Douliery/AFP via Getty Images)Every day the meme stocks dominate the financial media. And rightly so -- they are illustrating the power of communications, as traders and investors seek to follow momentum to big profits.It's easy to dismiss the phenomenon, because it isn't based on companies' traditional measures of profitability or sales growth, ratios of share prices to earnings or sales, or even innovative products or services. But so much money is trading around these stocks that you should at least learn about what is going on.Traders trying to understand the momentum and make quick gains will, of course, look at daily trading volumes and the immediate direction of share prices. But there are also measures of momentum among people communicating in Reddit's WallStreetBets channel and other social media. One of these, called a \"social sentiment analysis,\" was developed by HypeEquity and described here  by Thornton McEnery.But you might also be interested in whether any of these stocks might make good long-term investments. Or you may want to see financial information and standard stock valuations for the meme stocks, as part of your arguments against them.The meme stocksIn talk of meme stocks, there is an acronym, BANG. BlackBerry Ltd. (BB.T) is the first of the group of four, which also includes AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc., Nokia Corp. and GameStop Corp.. But there are four other meme stocks that have had a lot of recent social-media buzz and trading activity that we can add to make a list of eight.Here they are, sorted by market capitalization in millions of dollars:(FACTSET)AMC's market capitalization is up more than sevenfold this year. All of the listed meme stocks' valuations have rocketed, although only by double digits for Nokia and Bed Bath & Beyond.The boards of directors of AMC and GameStop each took advantage of the excitement among traders and sold new shares to the public to raise billions of dollars. AMC announced and completed the sale of 11.55 million new shares  June 3.Short interestWhat started this year's meme-stock craze was an opportunity described on WallStreetBets to create short-squeezes on heavily shorted stocks.Here's a definition of short-selling and its risks:So you have unlimited risk if you short-sell stock -- you never know how high its price might go. If you buy shares outright (that is, take a long position), you have only risked the amount you invested.If you have shorted a stock and its price has gone the wrong way -- up -- your broker might make a margin call, which means you need to deliver cash to cover the broker's risk. Short-sellers are told these rules by their brokers before entering short trades. But the margin requirements can lead to short squeezes when investors run out of cash. Brokers will force-sell the shares if the required cash margin isn't maintained by the investor/trader.So at the early stage of meme-stock mania, the WallStreetBets crew was able to buy shares of heavily shorted stocks as a group, which drove their prices higher and even led to covering (at losses) by professionals. The resulting short-squeeze made a lot of money for traders whose timing was right. And the buzz has continued since then as the meme stocks have bounced up and down.Here's a year-to-date chart showing total returns for the BANG stocks through June 3:(FACTSET)How much short interest is there now for this group of eight stocks? Here they are, ranked again by market cap:(FACTSET)FactSet's data on short positions as a percentage of shares outstanding is updated twice a month, with the second update around the 25th day of the month.The \"dollars short\" figure is of interest, as it gives some additional perspective to the short percentages. For example, 4.2% of Tesla Inc. shares are sold short, but that amounts to $24.2 billion in short interest, because the market cap is $583 billion.In late January,when GameStop had a seemingly impossible 138% in short interest, Brad Lamensdorf, CEO of ActiveAlts in Westport, Conn., who runs long and short investment strategies, said a short percentage “over 30% to 40% is outrageously high.” At that time we listed 30 stocks in the S&P Composite 1500 Index that were shorted 25% or more. (Lamensdorf co-manages the AdvisorShares Ranger Equity Bear ETF,which is meant to be used as a hedging tool.)But now, only four stocks in the index are short 25% or more, according to FactSet's most recent data: Geo Group Inc., which operates prisons, with 33.2% short interest, Bed Bath Beyond, PetMed Express Inc., with 28.7% short interest and B&G Foods Inc., with 25.8% of shares sold short. (Getting back to Geo Group, President Biden signed an executive order to phase-out federal contracts with private prison operatorSo this year's action with the meme stocks has had quite an effect on the stock market, quelling short-selling in general. That said, even with low short-interest numbers for Nokia and Koss Corp., both stocks have had short-squeezes this year.Meme stocks' fundamentalsTo analyze the meme companies' financial results and prospects, we will look back and then ahead. The coronavirus pandemic had an obvious brutal affect on AMC, as its theaters were all closed. It had reopened nearly all U.S. theaters with limited capacity by he end of March.GameStop has been challenged for years by a fundamental problem for a videogame retailer: More content being sold online, even for console gaming systems, rather than through Blu-ray or other media that were sold at the stores.So AMC and GameStop were obvious candidates for shorting until traders were able to group together via Reddit and online trading applications, including Robinhood, to cause the short-squeezes.Five-year reviewFirst, let's look at the direction of all eight companies' sales results over the past five full fiscal years. We're looking at fiscal years because for several of these companies, fiscal years don't match the calendar:(FACTSET)Even before the pandemic, AMC's sales had declined during 2019. So did Nokia's, although the company is putting up impressive sales numbers for one that makes mobile telecommunications devices and isn't Apple Inc. or Samsung. GameStop has suffered four years of annual sales declines, while Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. has been a little better.Looking ahead -- salesWhat if AMC and GameStop were able to put all that money they have raised to good use? Starting from a baseline of calendar 2021, to get past most of the effect of the pandemic in the U.S., here are sales projections going out another two years, where possible:(FACTSET)You may have noticed that Koss isn't included in the sales projections table. That is because FactSet was unable to obtain any financial estimates, ratings or targets from analysts at brokerage firms for the company.Among the companies for which we have estimates for 2023, AMC is expected to show a sales recovery to come close to pre-pandemic levels. Tilray Inc. is expected to continue on its growth course for marijuana supply. Nokia is expected to show modest sales growth through 2023.The right-most column is a hybrid of market cap as of June 3 to the furthest-out sales estimate available. Nokia looks cheap, and Wall Street analysts concur, as you will see below. This company stands apart from the other meme stocks.Putting those price-to-sales estimates into perspective, the benchmark S&P 500 Index  trades for 2.5 times the weighted aggregate 2023 sales estimate for its component companies.Looking ahead -- earningsLet's do the same exercise for earnings-per-share estimates going out to 2023, where possible:(FACTSET)For expected changes in EPS, we have \"N/A\" for most companies because the EPS estimates for AMC and BlackBerry are all negative, while estimates swing from negative to positive to negative for GameStop and Tilray. For the companies expected to remain consistently profitable -- Nokia and Bed Bath & Beyond -- the ratios of current price to 2023 EPS estimates are lower than the ratio of 18.4 for the S&P 500.Wall Street's ratings and targetsAnalysts at brokerage firms tend to shy away from negative ratings. They also set 12-month price targets. Those can be considered too short for some long-term investors looking to invest in companies that compound sales and profit at decent rates over many years. But the 12 months can be an eternity for traders trying to jump on volatile meme-stocks for gains.Here's a summary of sentiment among Wall Street analysts for seven of the eight meme stocks listed above (again skipping Koss, for which no ratings or estimates are available):(FACTSET)Nokia stands out with majority \"buy\" or equivalent ratings. But the stock was a bit ahead of the consensus price target as of the close June 3.For the other meme stocks, a focus on the daily buzz in Reddit and other social media may be your best way to gain insight into very difficult and risky trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TLRY":0.9,"MVIS":0.9,"AMC":0.9,"GME":0.9,"BBBY":0.9,"BB":0.9,"NOK":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":874,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164072179,"gmtCreate":1624163350991,"gmtModify":1631884711726,"author":{"id":"3582016561552186","authorId":"3582016561552186","name":"KMK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef525a9485b7272e73ab442de514d467","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016561552186","authorIdStr":"3582016561552186"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"12 IPOs:&nbsp;Chinese freight platform Full Truck Alliance(YMM)Healthcare manager Bright Health Group(BHG)Data infrastructure provider Confluent(CFLT) plans&nbsp;Car wash brand Mister Car Wash(MCW)Digital physicians network Doximity(DOCS)Customer experience software provider Sprinklr(CXM)&nbsp;HR platform provider First Advantage(FA)&nbsp;Chinese social networking platform Soulgate(SSR)&nbsp;Digital financial services provider AMTD Digital(HKD)Organ bioengineering company Miromatrix Medical(MIRO)&nbsp;Kidney disease biotech Unicycive Therapeutics(UNCY)&nbsp;Antibiotic biotech Acurx Pharmaceuticals(ACXP)&nbsp;","listText":"12 IPOs:&nbsp;Chinese freight platform Full Truck Alliance(YMM)Healthcare manager Bright Health Group(BHG)Data infrastructure provider Confluent(CFLT) plans&nbsp;Car wash brand Mister Car Wash(MCW)Digital physicians network Doximity(DOCS)Customer experience software provider Sprinklr(CXM)&nbsp;HR platform provider First Advantage(FA)&nbsp;Chinese social networking platform Soulgate(SSR)&nbsp;Digital financial services provider AMTD Digital(HKD)Organ bioengineering company Miromatrix Medical(MIRO)&nbsp;Kidney disease biotech Unicycive Therapeutics(UNCY)&nbsp;Antibiotic biotech Acurx Pharmaceuticals(ACXP)&nbsp;","text":"12 IPOs: Chinese freight platform Full Truck Alliance(YMM)Healthcare manager Bright Health Group(BHG)Data infrastructure provider Confluent(CFLT) plans Car wash brand Mister Car Wash(MCW)Digital physicians network Doximity(DOCS)Customer experience software provider Sprinklr(CXM) HR platform provider First Advantage(FA) Chinese social networking platform Soulgate(SSR) Digital financial services provider AMTD Digital(HKD)Organ bioengineering company Miromatrix Medical(MIRO) Kidney disease biotech Unicycive Therapeutics(UNCY) Antibiotic biotech Acurx Pharmaceuticals(ACXP)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164072179","repostId":"1199331995","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":933,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185705192,"gmtCreate":1623671548316,"gmtModify":1631889872737,"author":{"id":"3582016561552186","authorId":"3582016561552186","name":"KMK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef525a9485b7272e73ab442de514d467","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016561552186","authorIdStr":"3582016561552186"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good news for covid too","listText":"Good news for covid too","text":"Good news for covid too","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185705192","repostId":"2143609782","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1220,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188712617,"gmtCreate":1623461849539,"gmtModify":1631889872778,"author":{"id":"3582016561552186","authorId":"3582016561552186","name":"KMK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef525a9485b7272e73ab442de514d467","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016561552186","authorIdStr":"3582016561552186"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188712617","repostId":"2142120735","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":895,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":880333801,"gmtCreate":1631018018803,"gmtModify":1631885626143,"author":{"id":"3582016561552186","authorId":"3582016561552186","name":"KMK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef525a9485b7272e73ab442de514d467","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016561552186","authorIdStr":"3582016561552186"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Plz like","listText":"Plz like","text":"Plz like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880333801","repostId":"1130130857","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130130857","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631007146,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1130130857?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-07 17:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Strategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?<blockquote>策略师表示，今年秋天股市可能会陷入困境。现在买什么？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130130857","media":"Barron's","summary":"What a year this has been for the markets!Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and  a mostly receding pandemic, theS&P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.Tailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnin","content":"<p>What a year this has been for the markets! Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and (until recently) a mostly receding pandemic, theS&amp;P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.</p><p><blockquote>对于市场来说，这是多么美好的一年啊!在货币和财政刺激、经济和盈利增长以及（直到最近）疫情基本消退的推动下，标准普尔 500 指数上涨了 20%，连续七个月上涨，并一路创下 50 多个新高。此外，去年市场从 2020 年 3 月的低点反弹了 68%。</blockquote></p><p> Tailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnings growth are likely to decelerate through the end of the year. What’s more, theFederal Reserve has all but promised to start tapering its bond buyingin coming months, and the Biden administration has proposed hiking corporate and personal tax rates. None of this is apt to sit well with holders of increasingly pricey shares.</p><p><blockquote>顺风依然存在，但逆风现在迫在眉睫，可能会减缓股市的上涨速度。刺激支出已见顶，经济和企业盈利增长可能会在今年年底放缓。更重要的是，美联储几乎承诺在未来几个月开始缩减债券购买规模，拜登政府也提议提高企业和个人税率。对于越来越昂贵的股票持有者来说，这些都不太可能满意。</blockquote></p><p> In other words,brace for a volatile fallin which conflicting forces buffet stocks, bonds, and investors. “The everything rally is behind us,” says Saira Malik, chief investment officer of global equities at Nuveen. “It’s not going to be a sharply rising economic tide that lifts all boats from here.”</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，做好准备迎接波动性下跌，这相互矛盾地推动巴菲特股票、债券和投资者。“Nuveen 全球股票首席投资官赛拉-马利克（Saira Malik）说：”万物反弹已经过去。“这不会是一股急剧上涨的经济潮流，让所有船只都离开这里”。</blockquote></p><p> That’s the general consensus among the six market strategists and chief investment officers whom<i>Barron’s</i>recently consulted. All see the S&amp;P 500 ending the year near Thursday’s close of 4536. Their average target: 4585.</p><p><blockquote>这是六位市场策略师和首席投资官的普遍共识。<i>巴伦</i>最近咨询过。所有人都看到标普500在周四收盘价 4536 点附近收盘。他们的平均目标：4585。</blockquote></p><p> Next year’s gains look muted, as well, relative to recent trends. The group expects the S&amp;P 500 to tack on another 6% in 2022, rising to about 4800.</p><p><blockquote>与最近的趋势相比，明年的涨幅也显得微不足道。该集团预计 2022 年标普500将再增长 6%，升至 4,800 左右。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb61c7b74b9b0f18a019afb4ac44ad59\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With stocks trading for about 21 times the coming year’s expected earnings,bonds yielding little, and cash yielding less than nothing after accounting for inflation, investors face tough asset-allocation decisions. In place of the “everything rally,” which lifted fast-growing tech stocks, no-growth meme stocks, and the Dogecoins of the digital world, our market watchers recommend focusing on “quality” investments. In equities, that means shares of businesses with solid balance sheets, expanding profit margins, and ample and recurring free cash flow. Even if the averages do little in coming months, these stocks are likely to shine.</p><p><blockquote>由于股票交易价格约为来年预期收益的 21 倍，债券收益率很低，现金收益率在考虑通货膨胀因素后几乎为零，投资者面临着艰难的资产配置决策。我们的市场观察家建议关注 “优质 ”投资，而不是提振快速增长的科技股、停滞不前的备忘录股和数字世界的狗狗币。在股票中，这意味着拥有稳健的资产负债表、不断扩大的利润率以及充足且经常性的自由现金流的企业股票。即使未来几个月平均指数表现不佳，这些股票也可能会大放异彩。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market’s massive rally in the past year was a gift of sorts from the Federal Reserve, which flooded the financial system with money to stave off theeconomic damage wrought by the Covid pandemic. Since March 2020, the U.S. central bank has been buying a combined $120 billion a month of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, while keeping its benchmark federal-funds rate target at 0% to 0.25%. These moves have depressed bond yields and pushed investors into riskier assets, including stocks.</p><p><blockquote>过去一年股市的大幅反弹是美联储的一份礼物，美联储向金融体系注入了大量资金，以避免 Covid 大流行病造成的经济损失。自2020年3月以来，美国央行每月购买总计1200亿美元的美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券，同时将基准联邦基金利率目标维持在0%至0.25%。这些举措压低了债券收益率，并将投资者推向包括股票在内的风险更高的资产。</blockquote></p><p> Fed Chairman Jerome <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">Powell</a> has said that the central bank might begin to wind down, or taper, its emergency asset purchases sometime in the coming quarters, a move that could roil risk assets of all sorts. “For us, it’s very simple: Tapering is tightening,” says Mike Wilson, chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist atMorgan Stanley.“It’s the first step away from maximum accommodation [by the Fed]. They’re being very calculated about it this time, but the bottom line is that it should have a negative effect on equity valuations.”</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">鲍威尔</a>曾表示，央行可能会在未来几个季度的某个时候开始逐步减少或缩减紧急资产购买规模，此举可能会动摇各种风险资产。“摩根士丹利（atMorgan Stanley）首席投资官兼首席美国股票策略师迈克-威尔逊（Mike Wilson）说：”对我们来说，这很简单：缩减规模就是收紧规模。“这是（美联储）远离最大限度宽松的第一步。他们这次对此非常精打细算，但底线是这应该会对股票估值产生负面影响。”</blockquote></p><p> The government’s stimulus spending, too, has peaked, the strategists note. Supplemental federal unemployment benefits of $300 a week expire as of Sept. 6. Although Congress seems likely to pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill this fall, the near-term economic impact will pale in comparison to the multiple rounds of stimulus introduced since March 2020.</p><p><blockquote>战略家们指出，政府的刺激支出也达到了顶峰。每周 300 美元的补充联邦失业救济金将于 9 月 6 日到期。尽管国会似乎可能会在今年秋天通过一项两党基础设施法案，但与2020年3月以来推出的多轮刺激计划相比，近期经济影响将相形见绌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2cb76c498c1c4c980139e3d0514c261\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The bill includes about $550 billion in new spending—a fraction of the trillions authorized by previous laws—and it will be spread out over many years. The short-term boost that infrastructure stimulus will give to consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70% of U.S. growth domestic product, won’t come close to what the economy saw after millions of Americans received checks from the government this past year.</p><p><blockquote>该法案包括约 5500 亿美元的新支出——只是之前法律授权的万亿美元的一小部分——并且将分摊多年。基础设施刺激措施将在短期内对占美国国内生产总值增长近 70% 的消费支出的提振作用，远不及去年数百万美国人收到政府支票后的经济状况。</blockquote></p><p> A budget bill approved by Democrats only should follow the infrastructure bill, and include spending to support Medicare expansion, child-care funding, free community-college tuition, public housing, and climate-related measures, among other party priorities. Congress could vote to lift taxes on corporations and high-earning individuals to offset that spending—another near-term risk to the market.</p><p><blockquote>民主党批准的预算法案只应遵循基础设施法案，并包括支持医疗保险扩张、儿童保育资金、免费社区大学学费、公共住房和气候相关措施的支出，以及其他政党优先事项。国会可能会投票提高对企业和高收入个人的税收，以抵消这笔支出——这是市场面临的另一个近期风险。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6693da658db16059fc99e08a7531675f\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Other politically charged issues likewise could derail equities this fall. Congress needs to pass a debt-ceiling increase to fund the government, and a stop-gap spending bill later this month to avoid a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">Washington</a> shutdown in October.</p><p><blockquote>今年秋天，其他充满政治色彩的问题同样可能导致股市脱轨。国会需要通过提高债务上限来为政府提供资金，并在本月晚些时候通过一项权宜之计支出法案，以避免<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">华盛顿</a>十月关闭。</blockquote></p><p> For now, our market experts are relatively sanguine about the economic impact of the Delta variant of Covid-19. As long as vaccines remain effective in minimizing severe infections that lead to hospitalizations and deaths, the negative effects of the current Covid wave will be limited largely to the travel industry and movie theaters, they say. Wall Street’s base case for the market doesn’t include a renewed wave of lockdowns that would undermine economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>目前，我们的市场专家对新冠肺炎德尔塔变异毒株的经济影响相对乐观。他们说，只要疫苗在最大限度地减少导致住院和死亡的严重感染方面仍然有效，当前Covid浪潮的负面影响将主要局限于旅游业和电影院。华尔街对市场的基本看法并不包括新一波会破坏经济增长的封锁。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation has been a hot topic at the Fed and among investors, partly because it has been running so hot of late. The U.S. consumer price index rose at an annualized 5.4% in both June and July—a spike the Fed calls transitory, although others aren’t so sure. The strategists are taking Powell’s side of the argument; they expect inflation to fall significantly next year. Their forecasts fall between 2.5% and 3.5%, which they consider manageable for consumers and companies, and an acceptable side effect of rapid economic growth. An inflation rate above 2.5%, however, combined with Fed tapering, would mean that now ultralow bond yields should rise.</p><p><blockquote>通货膨胀一直是美联储和投资者的热门话题，部分原因是最近通货膨胀一直非常火爆。美国消费者价格指数在 6 月和 7 月均以年化 5.4% 的速度上涨--美联储的评级是暂时的，尽管其他人并不确定。战略家们站在鲍威尔一边；他们预计明年通货膨胀率将大幅下降。他们的预测降幅在 2.5% 至 3.5% 之间，他们认为这对消费者和企业来说是可控的，也是经济快速增长的可接受的副作用。然而，高于 2.5% 的通胀率，加上美联储缩减规模，意味着现在超低的债券收益率应该会上升。</blockquote></p><p> “We think inflation will continue to run hotter than it has since the financial crisis, but it’s hard for us to see inflation much over 2.5% once many of the reopening-related pressures start to dissipate,” says Michael Fredericks, head of income investing for theBlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group. “So bond yields do need to move up, but that will happen gradually.”</p><p><blockquote>“贝莱德多资产策略集团（BlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group）收入投资主管迈克尔-弗雷德里克斯（Michael Fredericks）说：”我们认为通胀将继续高于金融危机以来的水平，但一旦许多与重新开放相关的压力开始消散，我们就很难看到通胀率远高于2.5%。“因此，债券收益率确实需要上升，但这将是逐步发生的。”</blockquote></p><p> The strategists see the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbing to around 1.65% by year end. That’s about 35 basis points—or hundredths of a percentage point—above current levels, but below the 1.75% that the yield reached at its March 2021 highs. By next year, the 10-year Treasury could yield 2%, the group says. Those aren’t big moves in absolute terms, but they’re meaningful for&nbsp;the bond market—and could be even more so for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>策略师预计，到年底，10年期美国国债收益率将攀升至1.65%左右。这比目前的水平高出约 35 个基点，即百分之一个百分点，但低于 2021 年 3 月高点时达到的 1.75%。该组织表示，到明年，10 年期国债收益率可能达到 2%。从绝对值来看，这些举措并不算大，但对债券市场来说意义重大，对股市来说意义更大。</blockquote></p><p> Rising yields tend to weigh on stock valuations for two reasons. Higher-yielding bonds offer competition to stocks, and companies’ future earnings are worthless in the present when discounting them at a higher rate. Still, a 10-year yield around 2% won’t be enough to knock stock valuations down to pre-Covid levels. Even if yields climb, market strategists see the price/earnings multiple of the S&amp;P 500 holding well above its 30-year average of 16 times forward earnings. The index’s forward P/E topped 23 last fall.</p><p><blockquote>收益率上升往往会给股票估值带来压力，原因有二。收益率较高的债券会给股票带来竞争，如果按较高的利率贴现，公司未来的收益在目前就毫无价值。尽管如此，2% 左右的 10 年期国债收益率仍不足以将股票估值降至 Covid 之前的水平。即使收益率攀升，市场策略师也认为标普500持有的市盈率远高于其 30 年平均水平 16 倍远期市盈率。去年秋天，该指数的远期市盈率突破了 23。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e08d24cb421d7cc13debd76a9c6fea01\" tg-width=\"660\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As long as 10-year Treasury yields stay in the 2% range, the S&amp;P 500 should be able to command a forward P/E in the high teens, strategists say. A return to the 16-times long-term average isn’t in the cards until there is more pressure from much higher yields—or something else that causes stocks to fall.</p><p><blockquote>策略师表示，只要 10 年期国债收益率保持在 2% 范围内，标普500的远期市盈率就应该能够保持在高位。在收益率大幅上升或其他导致股市下跌的因素带来更大压力之前，回到 16 倍的长期平均水平是不可能的。</blockquote></p><p> If yields surge past 2% or 2.25%, investors could start to question equity valuations more seriously, says&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">State</a> Street’schief portfolio strategist, Gaurav Mallik: “We haven’t seen [the 10-year yield] above 2% for some time now, so that’s an important sentiment level for investors.”</p><p><blockquote>他表示，如果收益率飙升至 2% 或 2.25% 以上，投资者可能会开始更认真地质疑股票估值<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">状态</a>Street'schief 投资组合策略师 Gaurav Mallik： “我们已经有一段时间没有看到（10 年期国债收益率）超过 2%，因此这对投资者来说是一个重要的情绪水平。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93ff6490069ab5dc1b4057f1ff7966f3\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Wilson is more concerned, noting that the stock market’s valuation risk is asymmetric: “It’s very unlikely that multiples are going to go up, and there’s a good chance that they go down more than 10% given the deceleration in growth and where we are in the cycle,” he says</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊更担心，他指出股市的估值风险是不对称的： “他说：”考虑到增长放缓和我们在周期中的位置，市盈率不太可能上升，而且很有可能下降 10% 以上。</blockquote></p><p> If 16 to 23 times forward earnings is the range, he adds, “you’re already at the very high end of that. There’s more potential risk than reward.”</p><p><blockquote>他补充说，如果 16 到 23 倍的远期市盈率是这个范围，“你已经处于这个范围的高端了。潜在的风险大于回报”。</blockquote></p><p> Some P/E-multiple compression is baked into all six strategists’ forecasts, heaping greater importance on the path of profit growth. On average, the strategists expect S&amp;P 500 earnings to jump 46% this year, to about $204, after last year’s earnings depression. That could be followed by a more normalized gain of 9% in 2022, to about $222.50.</p><p><blockquote>六位策略师的预测都包含了一些市盈率的压缩，这使得利润增长之路更加重要。在经历了去年的盈利低迷之后，策略师平均预计标普500今年的盈利将跃升 46%，达到约 204 美元。随后，2022 年可能会上涨 9%，达到约 222.50 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> A potential headwind would be a higher federal corporate-tax rate in 2022. The details of Democrats’ spending and taxation plans will be worked out in the coming weeks, and investors can expect to hear a lot more about potential tax increases. Several strategists see a 25% federal rate on corporate profits as a likely compromise figure, above the 21% in place since 2018, but below the 28% sought by the Biden administration.</p><p><blockquote>一个潜在的阻力是 2022 年联邦企业税率的提高。民主党支出和税收计划的细节将在未来几周内制定，投资者有望听到更多关于潜在增税的消息。几位策略师认为，25% 的联邦企业利润率可能是一个妥协数字，高于 2018 年以来的 21%，但低于拜登政府寻求的 28%。</blockquote></p><p> An increase of that magnitude would shave about 5% off S&amp;P 500 earnings next year. The index could drop by a similar amount as the passage of the Democrats’ reconciliation bill nears this fall, but the impact should be limited to that initial correction. As with the tax cuts in December 2017, the change should be a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-time event for the market, some strategists predict.</p><p><blockquote>如此幅度的增长将使标普500明年的盈利减少约 5%。随着民主党和解法案的临近，该指数可能会下降类似的幅度，但影响应仅限于最初的修正。与 2017 年 12 月的减税一样，这一变化应该是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>一些策略师预测，市场的时间事件。</blockquote></p><p> These concerns aside, investors shouldn’t miss the bigger picture: The U.S. economy is in good shape and growing robustly. The strategists expect gross domestic product to rise 6.3% this year and about 4% in 2022. “The cyclical uplift and above-trend growth will continue at least through 2022, and we want to be biased toward assets that have that exposure,” says Mallik.</p><p><blockquote>撇开这些担忧不谈，投资者不应忽视大局： 美国经济状况良好，增长强劲。策略师预计今年国内生产总值将增长6.3%，2022年将增长约4%。“马利克说：”周期性上涨和高于趋势的增长至少将持续到 2022 年，我们希望偏向具有这种风险敞口的资产。</blockquote></p><p>   “We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next. When GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”— Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets  The State Street strategist recommends overweighting materials, financials, and technology in investment portfolios. That approach includes both economically sensitive companies, such as banks and miners, and steady growers in the tech sector.</p><p><blockquote>“今明两年我们的经济将非常火爆。当国内生产总值增长高于平均水平时，价值就会战胜增长，周期性股票会战胜防御性股票。”- Lori Calvasina，加拿大皇家银行资本市场 道富银行策略师建议在投资组合中增持材料、金融和技术。这种方法既包括银行和矿业等经济敏感的公司，也包括科技行业的稳定增长者。</blockquote></p><p> RBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, likewise takes a barbell approach, with both cyclical and growth exposure. Her preferred sectors are energy, financials, and technology.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大皇家银行资本市场（RBC Capital Markets）美国股票策略主管洛里-卡尔瓦西纳（Lori Calvasina）同样采取杠铃策略，同时投资周期性和成长性。她喜欢的行业是能源、金融和科技。</blockquote></p><p> “Valuations are still a lot more attractive in financials and energy than growth [sectors such as technology or consumer discretionary,]” Calvasina says. “The catalyst in the near term is getting out of the current Covid wave... We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next, and traditionally when GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”</p><p><blockquote>“卡尔瓦西纳说：”金融和能源领域的估值仍然比成长型行业（如科技或非必需消费品）更具吸引力。“近期的催化剂是摆脱当前的 Covid 浪潮......今明两年我们将迎来火热的经济，传统上，当 GDP 增长高于平均水平时，价值战胜增长，周期性战胜防御性。”</blockquote></p><p> But the focus on quality will be pivotal, especially moving into the second half of 2022. That’s when the Fed is likely to hike interest rates for the first time in this cycle. By 2023, the economy could return to pre-Covid growth on the order of 2%.</p><p><blockquote>但对质量的关注将是至关重要的，尤其是进入 2022 年下半年。届时美联储可能会在本周期内首次加息。到2023年，经济可能会恢复到新冠疫情前2%左右的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> “The historical playbook is that coming out of a recession, you tend to see low-quality outperformance that lasts about a year, then leadership flips back to high quality,” Calvasina says. “But that transition from low quality back to high quality tends to be very bumpy.”</p><p><blockquote>“卡尔瓦西纳说：”历史的剧本是，从经济衰退中走出来，往往会看到持续一年左右的低质量超越业绩，然后领导层会回到高质量。“但从低质量到高质量的转变往往非常坎坷”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Shopping List for Fall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>秋季购物清单</b></blockquote></p><p> Most strategists favor a combination of economically sensitive stocks and steady growers, including tech shares. Financials should do well, particularly if bond yields rise.</p><p><blockquote>大多数策略师倾向于经济敏感股票和稳定增长股票的组合，包括科技股。金融股应该表现良好，尤其是在债券收益率上升的情况下。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a54c4bd114c1a5f7f700d1fc14d30d8e\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Although stocks with quality attributes have outperformed the market this summer, according to a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a> analysis, the quality factor has lagged since positive vaccine news was first reported last November.</p><p><blockquote>尽管具有质量属性的股票今年夏天的表现优于大盘，但根据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">贝莱德</a>分析认为，自去年11月首次报道积极的疫苗消息以来，质量因素一直滞后。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re moving into a mid-cycle environment, when underlying economic growth remains strong but momentum begins to decelerate,” BlackRock’s Fredericks says. “Our research shows that quality stocks perform particularly well in such a period.”</p><p><blockquote>“贝莱德（BlackRock）的弗雷德里克斯（Fredericks）说：”我们正在进入一个周期中期环境，此时潜在的经济增长依然强劲，但势头开始放缓。“我们的研究表明，优质股票在这样的时期表现尤为出色。”</blockquote></p><p> He recommends overweighting profitable technology companies; financials, including banks, and consumer staples and industrials with those quality characteristics.</p><p><blockquote>他建议增持盈利的科技公司；金融业，包括银行，以及具有这些质量特征的必需消费品和工业。</blockquote></p><p> For <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>’s head of equity strategy, Christopher Harvey, a mix of post-pandemic beneficiaries and defensive exposure is the way to go. He constructed a basket of stocks with lower-than-average volatility—which should outperform during periods of market uncertainty or stress this fall—and high “Covid beta,” or sensitivity to good or bad news about the pandemic. One requirement; The stocks had to be rated the equivalent of Buy by Wells Fargo’s equity analysts.</p><p><blockquote>为了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>该公司的股票策略主管克里斯托弗-哈维（Christopher Harvey）认为，大流行后的受益者和防御性敞口相结合才是最佳选择。他构建了一篮子波动性低于平均水平的股票--在今年秋季市场不确定或压力时期，这些股票的表现应该会优于平均水平--并且 “Covid贝塔值 ”较高，即对大流行病的好消息或坏消息敏感。一个要求；富国银行的股票分析师不得不将这些股票评级相当于买入。</blockquote></p><p> “There’s near-term economic uncertainty, interest-rate uncertainty, and Covid risk, and generally we’re in a seasonally weaker part of the year around September,” says Harvey. “If we can balance low vol and high Covid beta, we can mitigate a lot of the upcoming uncertainty and volatility around timing of several of those catalysts. Longer-term, though, we still want to have that [reopening exposure.]”</p><p><blockquote>“哈维说：”近期存在经济不确定性、利率不确定性和 Covid 风险，一般来说，9 月前后我们正处于一年中季节性疲软的时期。“如果我们能在低体积和高 Covid beta 之间取得平衡，我们就能减轻即将到来的许多不确定性和波动性，这些催化剂的时间安排。不过，从长远来看，我们仍然希望有这种[重新开放的风险敞口]”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Harvey’s list of low-volatility stocks with high Covid beta includesApple(AAPL),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>(BAC),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">Northern</a> Trust(NTRS),Lowe’s(LOW),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a> Holdings(IQV), andMasco(MAS).</p><p><blockquote>哈维列出的高Covid贝塔值低波动性股票名单包括苹果公司（AAPL）、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>（BAC），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">北方的</a>信托(NTRS)、劳氏(LOW)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">伊克维亚</a>控股公司 (IQV) 和马斯科 (MAS)。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, banks are the most frequently recommended group for the months ahead. TheInvesco KBW Bankexchange-traded fund (KBWB) provides broad exposure to the sector in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，银行是未来几个月最常被推荐的群体。景顺 KBW 银行交易所交易基金 (KBWB) 为美国该行业提供广泛的投资。</blockquote></p><p> “We like the valuations [and] credit quality; they are now allowed to buy back shares and increase dividends, and there’s higher Covid beta,” says Harvey.</p><p><blockquote>“哈维说：”我们喜欢估值[和]信用质量；他们现在被允许回购股票并增加股息，而且 Covid 贝塔系数也更高。</blockquote></p><p> Cheaper valuations mean less potential downside in a market correction. And, contrary to much of the rest of the stock market, higher interest rates would be a tailwind for the banks, which could then charge more for loans.</p><p><blockquote>更便宜的估值意味着市场调整中潜在的下行空间较小。而且，与股票市场的其他大部分相反，更高的利率将成为银行的推动力，然后银行可能会收取更高的贷款费用。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">Healthcare</a> stocks also have some fans. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">Healthcare</a> has both defensive and growth attributes to it,” Wilson says. “You’re paying a lot less per unit of growth in healthcare today than you are in other sectors. So we think it provides good balance in this market when we’re worried about valuation.” Health insurerHumana(HUM) makes Wilson’s “Fresh Money Buy List” of stocks Buy-rated by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a> analysts and fitting his macro views.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">医疗保健</a>股票也有一些粉丝。“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">医疗保健</a>威尔逊说。“如今，与其他行业相比，医疗保健行业每单位增长的成本要低得多。因此，我们认为，当我们担心估值时，医疗保健行业为这个市场提供了良好的平衡。”Health insurerHumana (HUM) 将威尔逊的 “新鲜资金买入清单”评级为买入<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师并符合他的宏观观点。</blockquote></p><p> Nuveen’s Malik is also looking toward health care for relatively underpriced growth exposure, namely in the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology groups. She points toSeagen(SGEN), which is focused on oncology drugs and could be an attractive acquisition target for a pharma giant.</p><p><blockquote>Nuveen 的 Malik 也将目光投向了医疗保健行业，即制药和生物技术行业，以获得价格相对较低的增长机会。她指出，Seagen (SGEN) 专注于肿瘤药物，可能是制药巨头有吸引力的收购目标。</blockquote></p><p> Malik also likesAbbVie(ABBV) which trades at an undemanding eight times forward earnings and sports a 4.7% dividend yield. The coming expiration of patents on its blockbuster anti-inflammatory drug Humira has kept some investors away, but Malik is confident that management can limit the damage and sees promising drugs in development at the $200 billion company.</p><p><blockquote>马利克还喜欢艾伯维 (ABBV)，该公司的远期市盈率为 8 倍，股息收益率为 4.7%。其重磅抗炎药修美乐的专利即将到期，这让一些投资者望而却步，但马利克相信管理层可以限制损害，并看到这家价值 2000 亿美元的公司正在开发有前途的药物。</blockquote></p><p> Both stocks have had a tough time in recent days. Seagen fell more than 8% last week, to around $152, on news that its co-founder and CEO sold a large number of shares recently. AndAbbVietanked 7% Wednesday, to $112.27, after the Food and Drug Administration required new warning labels for JAK inhibitors, a type of anti-rheumatoid drug that includes one of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">AbbVie</a>’s most promising post-Humira products.</p><p><blockquote>这两只股票最近几天都经历了艰难的时期。Seagen 上周下跌超过 8%，至 152 美元左右，原因是有消息称其联合创始人兼首席执行官最近出售了大量股票。周三，艾伯维股价下跌 7%，至 112.27 美元，此前美国食品和药物管理局要求 JAK 抑制剂贴上新的警告标签，JAK 抑制剂是一种抗类风湿药物，包括以下成分之一<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">艾伯维</a>最有前途的后修美乐产品。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>(PFE),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>(AXP),Johnson &amp; Johnson(JNJ), andCisco Systems(CSCO) are other S&amp;P 500 members that pass a<i>Barron’s</i>screen for quality attributes.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a>（PFE），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">美国运通</a>(AXP)、强生公司 (JNJ) 和思科系统公司 (CSCO) 是其他通过<i>巴伦</i>质量属性屏幕。</blockquote></p><p> After a year of steady gains, investors might be reminded this fall that stocks can also decline, as growth momentum and policy support begin to fade. But underlying economic strength supports buying the dip, should the market drop from its highs. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> be more selective. And go with quality.</p><p><blockquote>经过一年的稳步上涨后，今年秋天投资者可能会被提醒，随着增长势头和政策支持开始消退，股市也可能下跌。但如果市场从高点回落，潜在的经济实力支持逢低买入。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>更有选择性。追求质量。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Strategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?<blockquote>策略师表示，今年秋天股市可能会陷入困境。现在买什么？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStrategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?<blockquote>策略师表示，今年秋天股市可能会陷入困境。现在买什么？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-07 17:32</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>What a year this has been for the markets! Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and (until recently) a mostly receding pandemic, theS&amp;P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.</p><p><blockquote>对于市场来说，这是多么美好的一年啊!在货币和财政刺激、经济和盈利增长以及（直到最近）疫情基本消退的推动下，标准普尔 500 指数上涨了 20%，连续七个月上涨，并一路创下 50 多个新高。此外，去年市场从 2020 年 3 月的低点反弹了 68%。</blockquote></p><p> Tailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnings growth are likely to decelerate through the end of the year. What’s more, theFederal Reserve has all but promised to start tapering its bond buyingin coming months, and the Biden administration has proposed hiking corporate and personal tax rates. None of this is apt to sit well with holders of increasingly pricey shares.</p><p><blockquote>顺风依然存在，但逆风现在迫在眉睫，可能会减缓股市的上涨速度。刺激支出已见顶，经济和企业盈利增长可能会在今年年底放缓。更重要的是，美联储几乎承诺在未来几个月开始缩减债券购买规模，拜登政府也提议提高企业和个人税率。对于越来越昂贵的股票持有者来说，这些都不太可能满意。</blockquote></p><p> In other words,brace for a volatile fallin which conflicting forces buffet stocks, bonds, and investors. “The everything rally is behind us,” says Saira Malik, chief investment officer of global equities at Nuveen. “It’s not going to be a sharply rising economic tide that lifts all boats from here.”</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，做好准备迎接波动性下跌，这相互矛盾地推动巴菲特股票、债券和投资者。“Nuveen 全球股票首席投资官赛拉-马利克（Saira Malik）说：”万物反弹已经过去。“这不会是一股急剧上涨的经济潮流，让所有船只都离开这里”。</blockquote></p><p> That’s the general consensus among the six market strategists and chief investment officers whom<i>Barron’s</i>recently consulted. All see the S&amp;P 500 ending the year near Thursday’s close of 4536. Their average target: 4585.</p><p><blockquote>这是六位市场策略师和首席投资官的普遍共识。<i>巴伦</i>最近咨询过。所有人都看到标普500在周四收盘价 4536 点附近收盘。他们的平均目标：4585。</blockquote></p><p> Next year’s gains look muted, as well, relative to recent trends. The group expects the S&amp;P 500 to tack on another 6% in 2022, rising to about 4800.</p><p><blockquote>与最近的趋势相比，明年的涨幅也显得微不足道。该集团预计 2022 年标普500将再增长 6%，升至 4,800 左右。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb61c7b74b9b0f18a019afb4ac44ad59\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With stocks trading for about 21 times the coming year’s expected earnings,bonds yielding little, and cash yielding less than nothing after accounting for inflation, investors face tough asset-allocation decisions. In place of the “everything rally,” which lifted fast-growing tech stocks, no-growth meme stocks, and the Dogecoins of the digital world, our market watchers recommend focusing on “quality” investments. In equities, that means shares of businesses with solid balance sheets, expanding profit margins, and ample and recurring free cash flow. Even if the averages do little in coming months, these stocks are likely to shine.</p><p><blockquote>由于股票交易价格约为来年预期收益的 21 倍，债券收益率很低，现金收益率在考虑通货膨胀因素后几乎为零，投资者面临着艰难的资产配置决策。我们的市场观察家建议关注 “优质 ”投资，而不是提振快速增长的科技股、停滞不前的备忘录股和数字世界的狗狗币。在股票中，这意味着拥有稳健的资产负债表、不断扩大的利润率以及充足且经常性的自由现金流的企业股票。即使未来几个月平均指数表现不佳，这些股票也可能会大放异彩。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market’s massive rally in the past year was a gift of sorts from the Federal Reserve, which flooded the financial system with money to stave off theeconomic damage wrought by the Covid pandemic. Since March 2020, the U.S. central bank has been buying a combined $120 billion a month of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, while keeping its benchmark federal-funds rate target at 0% to 0.25%. These moves have depressed bond yields and pushed investors into riskier assets, including stocks.</p><p><blockquote>过去一年股市的大幅反弹是美联储的一份礼物，美联储向金融体系注入了大量资金，以避免 Covid 大流行病造成的经济损失。自2020年3月以来，美国央行每月购买总计1200亿美元的美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券，同时将基准联邦基金利率目标维持在0%至0.25%。这些举措压低了债券收益率，并将投资者推向包括股票在内的风险更高的资产。</blockquote></p><p> Fed Chairman Jerome <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">Powell</a> has said that the central bank might begin to wind down, or taper, its emergency asset purchases sometime in the coming quarters, a move that could roil risk assets of all sorts. “For us, it’s very simple: Tapering is tightening,” says Mike Wilson, chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist atMorgan Stanley.“It’s the first step away from maximum accommodation [by the Fed]. They’re being very calculated about it this time, but the bottom line is that it should have a negative effect on equity valuations.”</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">鲍威尔</a>曾表示，央行可能会在未来几个季度的某个时候开始逐步减少或缩减紧急资产购买规模，此举可能会动摇各种风险资产。“摩根士丹利（atMorgan Stanley）首席投资官兼首席美国股票策略师迈克-威尔逊（Mike Wilson）说：”对我们来说，这很简单：缩减规模就是收紧规模。“这是（美联储）远离最大限度宽松的第一步。他们这次对此非常精打细算，但底线是这应该会对股票估值产生负面影响。”</blockquote></p><p> The government’s stimulus spending, too, has peaked, the strategists note. Supplemental federal unemployment benefits of $300 a week expire as of Sept. 6. Although Congress seems likely to pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill this fall, the near-term economic impact will pale in comparison to the multiple rounds of stimulus introduced since March 2020.</p><p><blockquote>战略家们指出，政府的刺激支出也达到了顶峰。每周 300 美元的补充联邦失业救济金将于 9 月 6 日到期。尽管国会似乎可能会在今年秋天通过一项两党基础设施法案，但与2020年3月以来推出的多轮刺激计划相比，近期经济影响将相形见绌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2cb76c498c1c4c980139e3d0514c261\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The bill includes about $550 billion in new spending—a fraction of the trillions authorized by previous laws—and it will be spread out over many years. The short-term boost that infrastructure stimulus will give to consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70% of U.S. growth domestic product, won’t come close to what the economy saw after millions of Americans received checks from the government this past year.</p><p><blockquote>该法案包括约 5500 亿美元的新支出——只是之前法律授权的万亿美元的一小部分——并且将分摊多年。基础设施刺激措施将在短期内对占美国国内生产总值增长近 70% 的消费支出的提振作用，远不及去年数百万美国人收到政府支票后的经济状况。</blockquote></p><p> A budget bill approved by Democrats only should follow the infrastructure bill, and include spending to support Medicare expansion, child-care funding, free community-college tuition, public housing, and climate-related measures, among other party priorities. Congress could vote to lift taxes on corporations and high-earning individuals to offset that spending—another near-term risk to the market.</p><p><blockquote>民主党批准的预算法案只应遵循基础设施法案，并包括支持医疗保险扩张、儿童保育资金、免费社区大学学费、公共住房和气候相关措施的支出，以及其他政党优先事项。国会可能会投票提高对企业和高收入个人的税收，以抵消这笔支出——这是市场面临的另一个近期风险。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6693da658db16059fc99e08a7531675f\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Other politically charged issues likewise could derail equities this fall. Congress needs to pass a debt-ceiling increase to fund the government, and a stop-gap spending bill later this month to avoid a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">Washington</a> shutdown in October.</p><p><blockquote>今年秋天，其他充满政治色彩的问题同样可能导致股市脱轨。国会需要通过提高债务上限来为政府提供资金，并在本月晚些时候通过一项权宜之计支出法案，以避免<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">华盛顿</a>十月关闭。</blockquote></p><p> For now, our market experts are relatively sanguine about the economic impact of the Delta variant of Covid-19. As long as vaccines remain effective in minimizing severe infections that lead to hospitalizations and deaths, the negative effects of the current Covid wave will be limited largely to the travel industry and movie theaters, they say. Wall Street’s base case for the market doesn’t include a renewed wave of lockdowns that would undermine economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>目前，我们的市场专家对新冠肺炎德尔塔变异毒株的经济影响相对乐观。他们说，只要疫苗在最大限度地减少导致住院和死亡的严重感染方面仍然有效，当前Covid浪潮的负面影响将主要局限于旅游业和电影院。华尔街对市场的基本看法并不包括新一波会破坏经济增长的封锁。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation has been a hot topic at the Fed and among investors, partly because it has been running so hot of late. The U.S. consumer price index rose at an annualized 5.4% in both June and July—a spike the Fed calls transitory, although others aren’t so sure. The strategists are taking Powell’s side of the argument; they expect inflation to fall significantly next year. Their forecasts fall between 2.5% and 3.5%, which they consider manageable for consumers and companies, and an acceptable side effect of rapid economic growth. An inflation rate above 2.5%, however, combined with Fed tapering, would mean that now ultralow bond yields should rise.</p><p><blockquote>通货膨胀一直是美联储和投资者的热门话题，部分原因是最近通货膨胀一直非常火爆。美国消费者价格指数在 6 月和 7 月均以年化 5.4% 的速度上涨--美联储的评级是暂时的，尽管其他人并不确定。战略家们站在鲍威尔一边；他们预计明年通货膨胀率将大幅下降。他们的预测降幅在 2.5% 至 3.5% 之间，他们认为这对消费者和企业来说是可控的，也是经济快速增长的可接受的副作用。然而，高于 2.5% 的通胀率，加上美联储缩减规模，意味着现在超低的债券收益率应该会上升。</blockquote></p><p> “We think inflation will continue to run hotter than it has since the financial crisis, but it’s hard for us to see inflation much over 2.5% once many of the reopening-related pressures start to dissipate,” says Michael Fredericks, head of income investing for theBlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group. “So bond yields do need to move up, but that will happen gradually.”</p><p><blockquote>“贝莱德多资产策略集团（BlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group）收入投资主管迈克尔-弗雷德里克斯（Michael Fredericks）说：”我们认为通胀将继续高于金融危机以来的水平，但一旦许多与重新开放相关的压力开始消散，我们就很难看到通胀率远高于2.5%。“因此，债券收益率确实需要上升，但这将是逐步发生的。”</blockquote></p><p> The strategists see the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbing to around 1.65% by year end. That’s about 35 basis points—or hundredths of a percentage point—above current levels, but below the 1.75% that the yield reached at its March 2021 highs. By next year, the 10-year Treasury could yield 2%, the group says. Those aren’t big moves in absolute terms, but they’re meaningful for&nbsp;the bond market—and could be even more so for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>策略师预计，到年底，10年期美国国债收益率将攀升至1.65%左右。这比目前的水平高出约 35 个基点，即百分之一个百分点，但低于 2021 年 3 月高点时达到的 1.75%。该组织表示，到明年，10 年期国债收益率可能达到 2%。从绝对值来看，这些举措并不算大，但对债券市场来说意义重大，对股市来说意义更大。</blockquote></p><p> Rising yields tend to weigh on stock valuations for two reasons. Higher-yielding bonds offer competition to stocks, and companies’ future earnings are worthless in the present when discounting them at a higher rate. Still, a 10-year yield around 2% won’t be enough to knock stock valuations down to pre-Covid levels. Even if yields climb, market strategists see the price/earnings multiple of the S&amp;P 500 holding well above its 30-year average of 16 times forward earnings. The index’s forward P/E topped 23 last fall.</p><p><blockquote>收益率上升往往会给股票估值带来压力，原因有二。收益率较高的债券会给股票带来竞争，如果按较高的利率贴现，公司未来的收益在目前就毫无价值。尽管如此，2% 左右的 10 年期国债收益率仍不足以将股票估值降至 Covid 之前的水平。即使收益率攀升，市场策略师也认为标普500持有的市盈率远高于其 30 年平均水平 16 倍远期市盈率。去年秋天，该指数的远期市盈率突破了 23。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e08d24cb421d7cc13debd76a9c6fea01\" tg-width=\"660\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As long as 10-year Treasury yields stay in the 2% range, the S&amp;P 500 should be able to command a forward P/E in the high teens, strategists say. A return to the 16-times long-term average isn’t in the cards until there is more pressure from much higher yields—or something else that causes stocks to fall.</p><p><blockquote>策略师表示，只要 10 年期国债收益率保持在 2% 范围内，标普500的远期市盈率就应该能够保持在高位。在收益率大幅上升或其他导致股市下跌的因素带来更大压力之前，回到 16 倍的长期平均水平是不可能的。</blockquote></p><p> If yields surge past 2% or 2.25%, investors could start to question equity valuations more seriously, says&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">State</a> Street’schief portfolio strategist, Gaurav Mallik: “We haven’t seen [the 10-year yield] above 2% for some time now, so that’s an important sentiment level for investors.”</p><p><blockquote>他表示，如果收益率飙升至 2% 或 2.25% 以上，投资者可能会开始更认真地质疑股票估值<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">状态</a>Street'schief 投资组合策略师 Gaurav Mallik： “我们已经有一段时间没有看到（10 年期国债收益率）超过 2%，因此这对投资者来说是一个重要的情绪水平。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93ff6490069ab5dc1b4057f1ff7966f3\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Wilson is more concerned, noting that the stock market’s valuation risk is asymmetric: “It’s very unlikely that multiples are going to go up, and there’s a good chance that they go down more than 10% given the deceleration in growth and where we are in the cycle,” he says</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊更担心，他指出股市的估值风险是不对称的： “他说：”考虑到增长放缓和我们在周期中的位置，市盈率不太可能上升，而且很有可能下降 10% 以上。</blockquote></p><p> If 16 to 23 times forward earnings is the range, he adds, “you’re already at the very high end of that. There’s more potential risk than reward.”</p><p><blockquote>他补充说，如果 16 到 23 倍的远期市盈率是这个范围，“你已经处于这个范围的高端了。潜在的风险大于回报”。</blockquote></p><p> Some P/E-multiple compression is baked into all six strategists’ forecasts, heaping greater importance on the path of profit growth. On average, the strategists expect S&amp;P 500 earnings to jump 46% this year, to about $204, after last year’s earnings depression. That could be followed by a more normalized gain of 9% in 2022, to about $222.50.</p><p><blockquote>六位策略师的预测都包含了一些市盈率的压缩，这使得利润增长之路更加重要。在经历了去年的盈利低迷之后，策略师平均预计标普500今年的盈利将跃升 46%，达到约 204 美元。随后，2022 年可能会上涨 9%，达到约 222.50 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> A potential headwind would be a higher federal corporate-tax rate in 2022. The details of Democrats’ spending and taxation plans will be worked out in the coming weeks, and investors can expect to hear a lot more about potential tax increases. Several strategists see a 25% federal rate on corporate profits as a likely compromise figure, above the 21% in place since 2018, but below the 28% sought by the Biden administration.</p><p><blockquote>一个潜在的阻力是 2022 年联邦企业税率的提高。民主党支出和税收计划的细节将在未来几周内制定，投资者有望听到更多关于潜在增税的消息。几位策略师认为，25% 的联邦企业利润率可能是一个妥协数字，高于 2018 年以来的 21%，但低于拜登政府寻求的 28%。</blockquote></p><p> An increase of that magnitude would shave about 5% off S&amp;P 500 earnings next year. The index could drop by a similar amount as the passage of the Democrats’ reconciliation bill nears this fall, but the impact should be limited to that initial correction. As with the tax cuts in December 2017, the change should be a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-time event for the market, some strategists predict.</p><p><blockquote>如此幅度的增长将使标普500明年的盈利减少约 5%。随着民主党和解法案的临近，该指数可能会下降类似的幅度，但影响应仅限于最初的修正。与 2017 年 12 月的减税一样，这一变化应该是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>一些策略师预测，市场的时间事件。</blockquote></p><p> These concerns aside, investors shouldn’t miss the bigger picture: The U.S. economy is in good shape and growing robustly. The strategists expect gross domestic product to rise 6.3% this year and about 4% in 2022. “The cyclical uplift and above-trend growth will continue at least through 2022, and we want to be biased toward assets that have that exposure,” says Mallik.</p><p><blockquote>撇开这些担忧不谈，投资者不应忽视大局： 美国经济状况良好，增长强劲。策略师预计今年国内生产总值将增长6.3%，2022年将增长约4%。“马利克说：”周期性上涨和高于趋势的增长至少将持续到 2022 年，我们希望偏向具有这种风险敞口的资产。</blockquote></p><p>   “We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next. When GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”— Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets  The State Street strategist recommends overweighting materials, financials, and technology in investment portfolios. That approach includes both economically sensitive companies, such as banks and miners, and steady growers in the tech sector.</p><p><blockquote>“今明两年我们的经济将非常火爆。当国内生产总值增长高于平均水平时，价值就会战胜增长，周期性股票会战胜防御性股票。”- Lori Calvasina，加拿大皇家银行资本市场 道富银行策略师建议在投资组合中增持材料、金融和技术。这种方法既包括银行和矿业等经济敏感的公司，也包括科技行业的稳定增长者。</blockquote></p><p> RBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, likewise takes a barbell approach, with both cyclical and growth exposure. Her preferred sectors are energy, financials, and technology.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大皇家银行资本市场（RBC Capital Markets）美国股票策略主管洛里-卡尔瓦西纳（Lori Calvasina）同样采取杠铃策略，同时投资周期性和成长性。她喜欢的行业是能源、金融和科技。</blockquote></p><p> “Valuations are still a lot more attractive in financials and energy than growth [sectors such as technology or consumer discretionary,]” Calvasina says. “The catalyst in the near term is getting out of the current Covid wave... We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next, and traditionally when GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”</p><p><blockquote>“卡尔瓦西纳说：”金融和能源领域的估值仍然比成长型行业（如科技或非必需消费品）更具吸引力。“近期的催化剂是摆脱当前的 Covid 浪潮......今明两年我们将迎来火热的经济，传统上，当 GDP 增长高于平均水平时，价值战胜增长，周期性战胜防御性。”</blockquote></p><p> But the focus on quality will be pivotal, especially moving into the second half of 2022. That’s when the Fed is likely to hike interest rates for the first time in this cycle. By 2023, the economy could return to pre-Covid growth on the order of 2%.</p><p><blockquote>但对质量的关注将是至关重要的，尤其是进入 2022 年下半年。届时美联储可能会在本周期内首次加息。到2023年，经济可能会恢复到新冠疫情前2%左右的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> “The historical playbook is that coming out of a recession, you tend to see low-quality outperformance that lasts about a year, then leadership flips back to high quality,” Calvasina says. “But that transition from low quality back to high quality tends to be very bumpy.”</p><p><blockquote>“卡尔瓦西纳说：”历史的剧本是，从经济衰退中走出来，往往会看到持续一年左右的低质量超越业绩，然后领导层会回到高质量。“但从低质量到高质量的转变往往非常坎坷”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Shopping List for Fall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>秋季购物清单</b></blockquote></p><p> Most strategists favor a combination of economically sensitive stocks and steady growers, including tech shares. Financials should do well, particularly if bond yields rise.</p><p><blockquote>大多数策略师倾向于经济敏感股票和稳定增长股票的组合，包括科技股。金融股应该表现良好，尤其是在债券收益率上升的情况下。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a54c4bd114c1a5f7f700d1fc14d30d8e\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Although stocks with quality attributes have outperformed the market this summer, according to a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a> analysis, the quality factor has lagged since positive vaccine news was first reported last November.</p><p><blockquote>尽管具有质量属性的股票今年夏天的表现优于大盘，但根据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">贝莱德</a>分析认为，自去年11月首次报道积极的疫苗消息以来，质量因素一直滞后。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re moving into a mid-cycle environment, when underlying economic growth remains strong but momentum begins to decelerate,” BlackRock’s Fredericks says. “Our research shows that quality stocks perform particularly well in such a period.”</p><p><blockquote>“贝莱德（BlackRock）的弗雷德里克斯（Fredericks）说：”我们正在进入一个周期中期环境，此时潜在的经济增长依然强劲，但势头开始放缓。“我们的研究表明，优质股票在这样的时期表现尤为出色。”</blockquote></p><p> He recommends overweighting profitable technology companies; financials, including banks, and consumer staples and industrials with those quality characteristics.</p><p><blockquote>他建议增持盈利的科技公司；金融业，包括银行，以及具有这些质量特征的必需消费品和工业。</blockquote></p><p> For <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>’s head of equity strategy, Christopher Harvey, a mix of post-pandemic beneficiaries and defensive exposure is the way to go. He constructed a basket of stocks with lower-than-average volatility—which should outperform during periods of market uncertainty or stress this fall—and high “Covid beta,” or sensitivity to good or bad news about the pandemic. One requirement; The stocks had to be rated the equivalent of Buy by Wells Fargo’s equity analysts.</p><p><blockquote>为了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>该公司的股票策略主管克里斯托弗-哈维（Christopher Harvey）认为，大流行后的受益者和防御性敞口相结合才是最佳选择。他构建了一篮子波动性低于平均水平的股票--在今年秋季市场不确定或压力时期，这些股票的表现应该会优于平均水平--并且 “Covid贝塔值 ”较高，即对大流行病的好消息或坏消息敏感。一个要求；富国银行的股票分析师不得不将这些股票评级相当于买入。</blockquote></p><p> “There’s near-term economic uncertainty, interest-rate uncertainty, and Covid risk, and generally we’re in a seasonally weaker part of the year around September,” says Harvey. “If we can balance low vol and high Covid beta, we can mitigate a lot of the upcoming uncertainty and volatility around timing of several of those catalysts. Longer-term, though, we still want to have that [reopening exposure.]”</p><p><blockquote>“哈维说：”近期存在经济不确定性、利率不确定性和 Covid 风险，一般来说，9 月前后我们正处于一年中季节性疲软的时期。“如果我们能在低体积和高 Covid beta 之间取得平衡，我们就能减轻即将到来的许多不确定性和波动性，这些催化剂的时间安排。不过，从长远来看，我们仍然希望有这种[重新开放的风险敞口]”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Harvey’s list of low-volatility stocks with high Covid beta includesApple(AAPL),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>(BAC),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">Northern</a> Trust(NTRS),Lowe’s(LOW),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a> Holdings(IQV), andMasco(MAS).</p><p><blockquote>哈维列出的高Covid贝塔值低波动性股票名单包括苹果公司（AAPL）、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>（BAC），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">北方的</a>信托(NTRS)、劳氏(LOW)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">伊克维亚</a>控股公司 (IQV) 和马斯科 (MAS)。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, banks are the most frequently recommended group for the months ahead. TheInvesco KBW Bankexchange-traded fund (KBWB) provides broad exposure to the sector in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，银行是未来几个月最常被推荐的群体。景顺 KBW 银行交易所交易基金 (KBWB) 为美国该行业提供广泛的投资。</blockquote></p><p> “We like the valuations [and] credit quality; they are now allowed to buy back shares and increase dividends, and there’s higher Covid beta,” says Harvey.</p><p><blockquote>“哈维说：”我们喜欢估值[和]信用质量；他们现在被允许回购股票并增加股息，而且 Covid 贝塔系数也更高。</blockquote></p><p> Cheaper valuations mean less potential downside in a market correction. And, contrary to much of the rest of the stock market, higher interest rates would be a tailwind for the banks, which could then charge more for loans.</p><p><blockquote>更便宜的估值意味着市场调整中潜在的下行空间较小。而且，与股票市场的其他大部分相反，更高的利率将成为银行的推动力，然后银行可能会收取更高的贷款费用。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">Healthcare</a> stocks also have some fans. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">Healthcare</a> has both defensive and growth attributes to it,” Wilson says. “You’re paying a lot less per unit of growth in healthcare today than you are in other sectors. So we think it provides good balance in this market when we’re worried about valuation.” Health insurerHumana(HUM) makes Wilson’s “Fresh Money Buy List” of stocks Buy-rated by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a> analysts and fitting his macro views.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">医疗保健</a>股票也有一些粉丝。“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">医疗保健</a>威尔逊说。“如今，与其他行业相比，医疗保健行业每单位增长的成本要低得多。因此，我们认为，当我们担心估值时，医疗保健行业为这个市场提供了良好的平衡。”Health insurerHumana (HUM) 将威尔逊的 “新鲜资金买入清单”评级为买入<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师并符合他的宏观观点。</blockquote></p><p> Nuveen’s Malik is also looking toward health care for relatively underpriced growth exposure, namely in the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology groups. She points toSeagen(SGEN), which is focused on oncology drugs and could be an attractive acquisition target for a pharma giant.</p><p><blockquote>Nuveen 的 Malik 也将目光投向了医疗保健行业，即制药和生物技术行业，以获得价格相对较低的增长机会。她指出，Seagen (SGEN) 专注于肿瘤药物，可能是制药巨头有吸引力的收购目标。</blockquote></p><p> Malik also likesAbbVie(ABBV) which trades at an undemanding eight times forward earnings and sports a 4.7% dividend yield. The coming expiration of patents on its blockbuster anti-inflammatory drug Humira has kept some investors away, but Malik is confident that management can limit the damage and sees promising drugs in development at the $200 billion company.</p><p><blockquote>马利克还喜欢艾伯维 (ABBV)，该公司的远期市盈率为 8 倍，股息收益率为 4.7%。其重磅抗炎药修美乐的专利即将到期，这让一些投资者望而却步，但马利克相信管理层可以限制损害，并看到这家价值 2000 亿美元的公司正在开发有前途的药物。</blockquote></p><p> Both stocks have had a tough time in recent days. Seagen fell more than 8% last week, to around $152, on news that its co-founder and CEO sold a large number of shares recently. AndAbbVietanked 7% Wednesday, to $112.27, after the Food and Drug Administration required new warning labels for JAK inhibitors, a type of anti-rheumatoid drug that includes one of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">AbbVie</a>’s most promising post-Humira products.</p><p><blockquote>这两只股票最近几天都经历了艰难的时期。Seagen 上周下跌超过 8%，至 152 美元左右，原因是有消息称其联合创始人兼首席执行官最近出售了大量股票。周三，艾伯维股价下跌 7%，至 112.27 美元，此前美国食品和药物管理局要求 JAK 抑制剂贴上新的警告标签，JAK 抑制剂是一种抗类风湿药物，包括以下成分之一<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">艾伯维</a>最有前途的后修美乐产品。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>(PFE),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>(AXP),Johnson &amp; Johnson(JNJ), andCisco Systems(CSCO) are other S&amp;P 500 members that pass a<i>Barron’s</i>screen for quality attributes.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a>（PFE），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">美国运通</a>(AXP)、强生公司 (JNJ) 和思科系统公司 (CSCO) 是其他通过<i>巴伦</i>质量属性屏幕。</blockquote></p><p> After a year of steady gains, investors might be reminded this fall that stocks can also decline, as growth momentum and policy support begin to fade. But underlying economic strength supports buying the dip, should the market drop from its highs. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> be more selective. And go with quality.</p><p><blockquote>经过一年的稳步上涨后，今年秋天投资者可能会被提醒，随着增长势头和政策支持开始消退，股市也可能下跌。但如果市场从高点回落，潜在的经济实力支持逢低买入。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>更有选择性。追求质量。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-could-struggle-this-fall-market-strategists-say-stick-with-quality-companies-51630699840?siteid=yhoof2\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-could-struggle-this-fall-market-strategists-say-stick-with-quality-companies-51630699840?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130130857","content_text":"What a year this has been for the markets! Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and (until recently) a mostly receding pandemic, theS&P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.\nTailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnings growth are likely to decelerate through the end of the year. What’s more, theFederal Reserve has all but promised to start tapering its bond buyingin coming months, and the Biden administration has proposed hiking corporate and personal tax rates. None of this is apt to sit well with holders of increasingly pricey shares.\nIn other words,brace for a volatile fallin which conflicting forces buffet stocks, bonds, and investors. “The everything rally is behind us,” says Saira Malik, chief investment officer of global equities at Nuveen. “It’s not going to be a sharply rising economic tide that lifts all boats from here.”\nThat’s the general consensus among the six market strategists and chief investment officers whomBarron’srecently consulted. All see the S&P 500 ending the year near Thursday’s close of 4536. Their average target: 4585.\nNext year’s gains look muted, as well, relative to recent trends. The group expects the S&P 500 to tack on another 6% in 2022, rising to about 4800.\nWith stocks trading for about 21 times the coming year’s expected earnings,bonds yielding little, and cash yielding less than nothing after accounting for inflation, investors face tough asset-allocation decisions. In place of the “everything rally,” which lifted fast-growing tech stocks, no-growth meme stocks, and the Dogecoins of the digital world, our market watchers recommend focusing on “quality” investments. In equities, that means shares of businesses with solid balance sheets, expanding profit margins, and ample and recurring free cash flow. Even if the averages do little in coming months, these stocks are likely to shine.\nThe stock market’s massive rally in the past year was a gift of sorts from the Federal Reserve, which flooded the financial system with money to stave off theeconomic damage wrought by the Covid pandemic. Since March 2020, the U.S. central bank has been buying a combined $120 billion a month of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, while keeping its benchmark federal-funds rate target at 0% to 0.25%. These moves have depressed bond yields and pushed investors into riskier assets, including stocks.\nFed Chairman Jerome Powell has said that the central bank might begin to wind down, or taper, its emergency asset purchases sometime in the coming quarters, a move that could roil risk assets of all sorts. “For us, it’s very simple: Tapering is tightening,” says Mike Wilson, chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist atMorgan Stanley.“It’s the first step away from maximum accommodation [by the Fed]. They’re being very calculated about it this time, but the bottom line is that it should have a negative effect on equity valuations.”\nThe government’s stimulus spending, too, has peaked, the strategists note. Supplemental federal unemployment benefits of $300 a week expire as of Sept. 6. Although Congress seems likely to pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill this fall, the near-term economic impact will pale in comparison to the multiple rounds of stimulus introduced since March 2020.\nThe bill includes about $550 billion in new spending—a fraction of the trillions authorized by previous laws—and it will be spread out over many years. The short-term boost that infrastructure stimulus will give to consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70% of U.S. growth domestic product, won’t come close to what the economy saw after millions of Americans received checks from the government this past year.\nA budget bill approved by Democrats only should follow the infrastructure bill, and include spending to support Medicare expansion, child-care funding, free community-college tuition, public housing, and climate-related measures, among other party priorities. Congress could vote to lift taxes on corporations and high-earning individuals to offset that spending—another near-term risk to the market.\nOther politically charged issues likewise could derail equities this fall. Congress needs to pass a debt-ceiling increase to fund the government, and a stop-gap spending bill later this month to avoid a Washington shutdown in October.\nFor now, our market experts are relatively sanguine about the economic impact of the Delta variant of Covid-19. As long as vaccines remain effective in minimizing severe infections that lead to hospitalizations and deaths, the negative effects of the current Covid wave will be limited largely to the travel industry and movie theaters, they say. Wall Street’s base case for the market doesn’t include a renewed wave of lockdowns that would undermine economic growth.\nInflation has been a hot topic at the Fed and among investors, partly because it has been running so hot of late. The U.S. consumer price index rose at an annualized 5.4% in both June and July—a spike the Fed calls transitory, although others aren’t so sure. The strategists are taking Powell’s side of the argument; they expect inflation to fall significantly next year. Their forecasts fall between 2.5% and 3.5%, which they consider manageable for consumers and companies, and an acceptable side effect of rapid economic growth. An inflation rate above 2.5%, however, combined with Fed tapering, would mean that now ultralow bond yields should rise.\n“We think inflation will continue to run hotter than it has since the financial crisis, but it’s hard for us to see inflation much over 2.5% once many of the reopening-related pressures start to dissipate,” says Michael Fredericks, head of income investing for theBlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group. “So bond yields do need to move up, but that will happen gradually.”\nThe strategists see the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbing to around 1.65% by year end. That’s about 35 basis points—or hundredths of a percentage point—above current levels, but below the 1.75% that the yield reached at its March 2021 highs. By next year, the 10-year Treasury could yield 2%, the group says. Those aren’t big moves in absolute terms, but they’re meaningful for the bond market—and could be even more so for stocks.\nRising yields tend to weigh on stock valuations for two reasons. Higher-yielding bonds offer competition to stocks, and companies’ future earnings are worthless in the present when discounting them at a higher rate. Still, a 10-year yield around 2% won’t be enough to knock stock valuations down to pre-Covid levels. Even if yields climb, market strategists see the price/earnings multiple of the S&P 500 holding well above its 30-year average of 16 times forward earnings. The index’s forward P/E topped 23 last fall.\n\nAs long as 10-year Treasury yields stay in the 2% range, the S&P 500 should be able to command a forward P/E in the high teens, strategists say. A return to the 16-times long-term average isn’t in the cards until there is more pressure from much higher yields—or something else that causes stocks to fall.\nIf yields surge past 2% or 2.25%, investors could start to question equity valuations more seriously, says State Street’schief portfolio strategist, Gaurav Mallik: “We haven’t seen [the 10-year yield] above 2% for some time now, so that’s an important sentiment level for investors.”\n\nWilson is more concerned, noting that the stock market’s valuation risk is asymmetric: “It’s very unlikely that multiples are going to go up, and there’s a good chance that they go down more than 10% given the deceleration in growth and where we are in the cycle,” he says\nIf 16 to 23 times forward earnings is the range, he adds, “you’re already at the very high end of that. There’s more potential risk than reward.”\nSome P/E-multiple compression is baked into all six strategists’ forecasts, heaping greater importance on the path of profit growth. On average, the strategists expect S&P 500 earnings to jump 46% this year, to about $204, after last year’s earnings depression. That could be followed by a more normalized gain of 9% in 2022, to about $222.50.\nA potential headwind would be a higher federal corporate-tax rate in 2022. The details of Democrats’ spending and taxation plans will be worked out in the coming weeks, and investors can expect to hear a lot more about potential tax increases. Several strategists see a 25% federal rate on corporate profits as a likely compromise figure, above the 21% in place since 2018, but below the 28% sought by the Biden administration.\nAn increase of that magnitude would shave about 5% off S&P 500 earnings next year. The index could drop by a similar amount as the passage of the Democrats’ reconciliation bill nears this fall, but the impact should be limited to that initial correction. As with the tax cuts in December 2017, the change should be a one-time event for the market, some strategists predict.\nThese concerns aside, investors shouldn’t miss the bigger picture: The U.S. economy is in good shape and growing robustly. The strategists expect gross domestic product to rise 6.3% this year and about 4% in 2022. “The cyclical uplift and above-trend growth will continue at least through 2022, and we want to be biased toward assets that have that exposure,” says Mallik.\n\n “We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next. When GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”— Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets\n\nThe State Street strategist recommends overweighting materials, financials, and technology in investment portfolios. That approach includes both economically sensitive companies, such as banks and miners, and steady growers in the tech sector.\nRBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, likewise takes a barbell approach, with both cyclical and growth exposure. Her preferred sectors are energy, financials, and technology.\n“Valuations are still a lot more attractive in financials and energy than growth [sectors such as technology or consumer discretionary,]” Calvasina says. “The catalyst in the near term is getting out of the current Covid wave... We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next, and traditionally when GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”\nBut the focus on quality will be pivotal, especially moving into the second half of 2022. That’s when the Fed is likely to hike interest rates for the first time in this cycle. By 2023, the economy could return to pre-Covid growth on the order of 2%.\n“The historical playbook is that coming out of a recession, you tend to see low-quality outperformance that lasts about a year, then leadership flips back to high quality,” Calvasina says. “But that transition from low quality back to high quality tends to be very bumpy.”\nA Shopping List for Fall\nMost strategists favor a combination of economically sensitive stocks and steady growers, including tech shares. Financials should do well, particularly if bond yields rise.\n\nAlthough stocks with quality attributes have outperformed the market this summer, according to a BlackRock analysis, the quality factor has lagged since positive vaccine news was first reported last November.\n“We’re moving into a mid-cycle environment, when underlying economic growth remains strong but momentum begins to decelerate,” BlackRock’s Fredericks says. “Our research shows that quality stocks perform particularly well in such a period.”\nHe recommends overweighting profitable technology companies; financials, including banks, and consumer staples and industrials with those quality characteristics.\nFor Wells Fargo’s head of equity strategy, Christopher Harvey, a mix of post-pandemic beneficiaries and defensive exposure is the way to go. He constructed a basket of stocks with lower-than-average volatility—which should outperform during periods of market uncertainty or stress this fall—and high “Covid beta,” or sensitivity to good or bad news about the pandemic. One requirement; The stocks had to be rated the equivalent of Buy by Wells Fargo’s equity analysts.\n“There’s near-term economic uncertainty, interest-rate uncertainty, and Covid risk, and generally we’re in a seasonally weaker part of the year around September,” says Harvey. “If we can balance low vol and high Covid beta, we can mitigate a lot of the upcoming uncertainty and volatility around timing of several of those catalysts. Longer-term, though, we still want to have that [reopening exposure.]”\nHarvey’s list of low-volatility stocks with high Covid beta includesApple(AAPL),Bank of America(BAC),Northern Trust(NTRS),Lowe’s(LOW),IQVIA Holdings(IQV), andMasco(MAS).\nOverall, banks are the most frequently recommended group for the months ahead. TheInvesco KBW Bankexchange-traded fund (KBWB) provides broad exposure to the sector in the U.S.\n“We like the valuations [and] credit quality; they are now allowed to buy back shares and increase dividends, and there’s higher Covid beta,” says Harvey.\nCheaper valuations mean less potential downside in a market correction. And, contrary to much of the rest of the stock market, higher interest rates would be a tailwind for the banks, which could then charge more for loans.\nHealthcare stocks also have some fans. “Healthcare has both defensive and growth attributes to it,” Wilson says. “You’re paying a lot less per unit of growth in healthcare today than you are in other sectors. So we think it provides good balance in this market when we’re worried about valuation.” Health insurerHumana(HUM) makes Wilson’s “Fresh Money Buy List” of stocks Buy-rated by Morgan Stanley analysts and fitting his macro views.\nNuveen’s Malik is also looking toward health care for relatively underpriced growth exposure, namely in the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology groups. She points toSeagen(SGEN), which is focused on oncology drugs and could be an attractive acquisition target for a pharma giant.\nMalik also likesAbbVie(ABBV) which trades at an undemanding eight times forward earnings and sports a 4.7% dividend yield. The coming expiration of patents on its blockbuster anti-inflammatory drug Humira has kept some investors away, but Malik is confident that management can limit the damage and sees promising drugs in development at the $200 billion company.\nBoth stocks have had a tough time in recent days. Seagen fell more than 8% last week, to around $152, on news that its co-founder and CEO sold a large number of shares recently. AndAbbVietanked 7% Wednesday, to $112.27, after the Food and Drug Administration required new warning labels for JAK inhibitors, a type of anti-rheumatoid drug that includes one of AbbVie’s most promising post-Humira products.\nPfizer(PFE),American Express(AXP),Johnson & Johnson(JNJ), andCisco Systems(CSCO) are other S&P 500 members that pass aBarron’sscreen for quality attributes.\nAfter a year of steady gains, investors might be reminded this fall that stocks can also decline, as growth momentum and policy support begin to fade. But underlying economic strength supports buying the dip, should the market drop from its highs. Just be more selective. And go with quality.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2576,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":117087541,"gmtCreate":1623110403083,"gmtModify":1631889872849,"author":{"id":"3582016561552186","authorId":"3582016561552186","name":"KMK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef525a9485b7272e73ab442de514d467","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016561552186","authorIdStr":"3582016561552186"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"To the moon","listText":"To the moon","text":"To the moon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/117087541","repostId":"2141127236","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":982,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182691165,"gmtCreate":1623566534957,"gmtModify":1631889872768,"author":{"id":"3582016561552186","authorId":"3582016561552186","name":"KMK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef525a9485b7272e73ab442de514d467","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016561552186","authorIdStr":"3582016561552186"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ape stock","listText":"Ape stock","text":"Ape stock","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/182691165","repostId":"1185020128","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185020128","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623537503,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1185020128?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-13 06:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Meme Stock Soars 1,000% To Lead These Two Top Small Cap Stock Plays<blockquote>Meme 股票飙升 1,000%，领跑这两只顶级小盘股</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185020128","media":"investors","summary":"GameStop may be the top holding in SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Value, but that's not the only reason the ","content":"<p>GameStop may be the top holding in SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Value, but that's not the only reason the ETF is beating its growth-stock counterpart.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站可能是 SPDR S&amp;P 600 小盘股价值的最大持股，但这并不是该 ETF 击败成长型股票的唯一原因。</blockquote></p><p> The $4.2 billion value fund tracks the S&amp;P SmallCap 600 Value Index (SLYV), composed of stocks with the strongest value traits based on book value to price ratio, earnings to price ratio, and sales to price ratio. SLYV rallied 32% this year through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>这只价值 42 亿美元的价值基金追踪标准普尔小型股 600 价值指数 (SLYV)，该指数由基于账面市盈率、市盈率和销售率的最强价值特征的股票组成。截至周四收盘，SLYV 今年上涨了 32%。</blockquote></p><p> That more than doubles the return of its growth stock counterpart, SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth (SLYG), which is up 15%. The index SLYG tracks includes stocks with the strongest growth traits based on sales growth, earnings change to price and momentum.</p><p><blockquote>这比其成长型股票 SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth (SLYG) 的回报率增加了一倍多，后者上涨了 15%。SLYG 跟踪的指数包括基于销售增长、盈利对价格和势头的变化而具有最强增长特征的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Back to SLYV, financials accounted for the biggest sector weight at 24% of assets. Industrials weighed in at about 17%, consumer discretionary 15% and real estate 10%. Information technology was next at 8% and materials, energy and health care, 6% each.&nbsp;Smaller positions in consumer staples, utilities and communication services made up the rest.</p><p><blockquote>回到 SLYV，金融业占该行业权重最大，占资产的 24%。工业约占17%，非必需消费品15%，房地产10%。信息技术紧随其后，占8%，材料、能源和医疗保健各占6%。消费品、公用事业和通信服务等较小的头寸占其余头寸。</blockquote></p><p> SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Value is in IBD's ETF Leaders, but SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth is not.</p><p><blockquote>SPDR S&amp;P 600 小盘股价值位居 IBD ETF 领先地位，但 SPDR S&amp;P 600 小盘股增长并非如此。</blockquote></p><p> <b>GameStop Stock Leads</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站股票领先</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>GameStop</b>(GME),<b>Macy's</b>(M),<b>PDC Energy</b>(PDCE),<b>Resideo Technologies</b>(REZI) and<b>BankUnited</b>(BKU) were the top five holdings as of Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站</b>（GME），<b>梅西百货</b>（米），<b>PDC能源</b>（PDCE），<b>Resideo技术公司</b>（雷齐）和<b>联合银行</b>（BKU）是截至周三的前五大持股。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Pacific Premier Bancorp</b>(PPBI),<b>Bed Bath &amp; Beyond</b>(BBBY),<b>Ameris Bancorp</b>(ABCB),<b>First Hawaiian</b>(FHB) and<b>Insight Enterprises</b>(NSIT) rounded out the top 10.</p><p><blockquote><b>太平洋卓越银行</b>（PPBI），<b>床浴及其他</b>（BBBY），<b>美国银行</b>（ABCB），<b>第一个夏威夷人</b>（FHB）和<b>洞察企业</b>（NSIT）跻身前10名。</blockquote></p><p> GameStop has undergone wide swings this year. It rocketed about 2,500% early this year amid theshort-squeeze rallyfueled by the Reddit/WallStreetBets crowd.GME stockthen crashed 92% from a Jan. 28 high to its mid-February low. That was followed by an 805% surge the next three weeks, and a 66% drop over the next two weeks.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站今年经历了很大的波动。今年早些时候，在 Reddit/WallStreetBets crowd.GME 引发的空头挤压反弹中，该股飙升约 2,500%。随后，GME 股票从 1 月 28 日的高点暴跌 92%，跌至 2 月中旬的低点。随后在接下来的三周内飙升了 805%，在接下来的两周内下降了 66%。</blockquote></p><p> Action had been relatively subdued since, until Thursday's 27% dive. Even after that, GameStop stock was up 1,070% year to date through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>此后，股价一直相对低迷，直到周四暴跌 27%。即便如此，截至周四收盘，游戏驿站股价今年迄今已上涨 1,070%。</blockquote></p><p> Could GME be inflating SLYV's performance? Certainly, given its quadruple-digit gain. But a look at SLYG's portfolio is interesting. GameStop stock is also the top holding in the growth stock ETF, though the rest of the top 10 differ vastly.</p><p><blockquote>GME 会夸大 SLYV 的业绩吗？当然，考虑到其四位数的增益。但看看 SLYG 的投资组合很有趣。游戏驿站股票也是成长型股票 ETF 中持有量最大的股票，尽管前 10 名中的其他股票差异很大。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Second Meme Stock In Top 10</b></p><p><blockquote><b>前 10 名中的第二只模因股票</b></blockquote></p><p> PDC Energy, up 130%, saw the next biggest gain in the top 10. The Colorado-based oil and gas explorer has a 97Relative Strength Rating, which mean it's in the top 3% of all stocks. Its relative strength line is at a 52-week high, a bullish sign.</p><p><blockquote>PDC Energy 上涨 130%，在前 10 名中涨幅第二大。这家总部位于科罗拉多州的石油和天然气勘探公司的相对实力评级为 97，这意味着它在所有股票中排名前 3%。其相对强弱线处于 52 周高点，这是一个看涨信号。</blockquote></p><p> Bed Bath &amp; Beyond, another meme stock, is up 78% this year. Shares surged more than 200% in January, amid a spate of wild double-digit swings. BBBY stock then gave back the bulk of its gains.</p><p><blockquote>另一只模因股票 Bed Bath &amp; Beyond 今年上涨了 78%。1 月份，股价飙升超过 200%，出现了一系列两位数的剧烈波动。BBBY 股票随后回吐了大部分涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> But the home goods retailer appears to be back on the radar of the WallStreetBets discussion group. On June 2, Bed Bath &amp; Beyond soared 62% before diving 28% the next session.</p><p><blockquote>但这家家居用品零售商似乎又回到了 WallStreetBets 讨论组的视线中。6 月 2 日，Bed Bath &amp; Beyond 飙升 62%，然后在接下来的交易日暴跌 28%。</blockquote></p><p> The rest of the top 10 stocks have also outperformed the broader market. Macy's is up 68% year to date, while Resideo, Pacific Premier and Ameris have risen more than 40% each. The lowest gainer, bank holding company First Hawaiian, has advanced 20%. The S&amp;P 500 held a 13% gain through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>前 10 名股票的其余表现也优于大盘。梅西百货今年迄今已上涨 68%，而 Resideo、Pacific Premier 和 Ameris 的股价均上涨超过 40%。涨幅最低的银行控股公司 First Hawaiian 上涨了 20%。截至周四收盘，标普500上涨 13%。</blockquote></p><p> SLYV remains in potential buy range from an 87.29entryof acup with handle, according toMarketSmithchart analysis.&nbsp;SLYV and SLYG charge a 0.15% expense ratio.</p><p><blockquote>根据 MarketSmithChart 分析，SLYV 仍处于带手柄的 acup 的潜在买入区间，为 87.29。 SLYV 和 SLYG 收取 0.15% 的费用率。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610449120050","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Meme Stock Soars 1,000% To Lead These Two Top Small Cap Stock Plays<blockquote>Meme 股票飙升 1,000%，领跑这两只顶级小盘股</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMeme Stock Soars 1,000% To Lead These Two Top Small Cap Stock Plays<blockquote>Meme 股票飙升 1,000%，领跑这两只顶级小盘股</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">investors</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-13 06:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>GameStop may be the top holding in SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Value, but that's not the only reason the ETF is beating its growth-stock counterpart.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站可能是 SPDR S&amp;P 600 小盘股价值的最大持股，但这并不是该 ETF 击败成长型股票的唯一原因。</blockquote></p><p> The $4.2 billion value fund tracks the S&amp;P SmallCap 600 Value Index (SLYV), composed of stocks with the strongest value traits based on book value to price ratio, earnings to price ratio, and sales to price ratio. SLYV rallied 32% this year through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>这只价值 42 亿美元的价值基金追踪标准普尔小型股 600 价值指数 (SLYV)，该指数由基于账面市盈率、市盈率和销售率的最强价值特征的股票组成。截至周四收盘，SLYV 今年上涨了 32%。</blockquote></p><p> That more than doubles the return of its growth stock counterpart, SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth (SLYG), which is up 15%. The index SLYG tracks includes stocks with the strongest growth traits based on sales growth, earnings change to price and momentum.</p><p><blockquote>这比其成长型股票 SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth (SLYG) 的回报率增加了一倍多，后者上涨了 15%。SLYG 跟踪的指数包括基于销售增长、盈利对价格和势头的变化而具有最强增长特征的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Back to SLYV, financials accounted for the biggest sector weight at 24% of assets. Industrials weighed in at about 17%, consumer discretionary 15% and real estate 10%. Information technology was next at 8% and materials, energy and health care, 6% each.&nbsp;Smaller positions in consumer staples, utilities and communication services made up the rest.</p><p><blockquote>回到 SLYV，金融业占该行业权重最大，占资产的 24%。工业约占17%，非必需消费品15%，房地产10%。信息技术紧随其后，占8%，材料、能源和医疗保健各占6%。消费品、公用事业和通信服务等较小的头寸占其余头寸。</blockquote></p><p> SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Value is in IBD's ETF Leaders, but SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth is not.</p><p><blockquote>SPDR S&amp;P 600 小盘股价值位居 IBD ETF 领先地位，但 SPDR S&amp;P 600 小盘股增长并非如此。</blockquote></p><p> <b>GameStop Stock Leads</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站股票领先</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>GameStop</b>(GME),<b>Macy's</b>(M),<b>PDC Energy</b>(PDCE),<b>Resideo Technologies</b>(REZI) and<b>BankUnited</b>(BKU) were the top five holdings as of Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站</b>（GME），<b>梅西百货</b>（米），<b>PDC能源</b>（PDCE），<b>Resideo技术公司</b>（雷齐）和<b>联合银行</b>（BKU）是截至周三的前五大持股。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Pacific Premier Bancorp</b>(PPBI),<b>Bed Bath &amp; Beyond</b>(BBBY),<b>Ameris Bancorp</b>(ABCB),<b>First Hawaiian</b>(FHB) and<b>Insight Enterprises</b>(NSIT) rounded out the top 10.</p><p><blockquote><b>太平洋卓越银行</b>（PPBI），<b>床浴及其他</b>（BBBY），<b>美国银行</b>（ABCB），<b>第一个夏威夷人</b>（FHB）和<b>洞察企业</b>（NSIT）跻身前10名。</blockquote></p><p> GameStop has undergone wide swings this year. It rocketed about 2,500% early this year amid theshort-squeeze rallyfueled by the Reddit/WallStreetBets crowd.GME stockthen crashed 92% from a Jan. 28 high to its mid-February low. That was followed by an 805% surge the next three weeks, and a 66% drop over the next two weeks.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站今年经历了很大的波动。今年早些时候，在 Reddit/WallStreetBets crowd.GME 引发的空头挤压反弹中，该股飙升约 2,500%。随后，GME 股票从 1 月 28 日的高点暴跌 92%，跌至 2 月中旬的低点。随后在接下来的三周内飙升了 805%，在接下来的两周内下降了 66%。</blockquote></p><p> Action had been relatively subdued since, until Thursday's 27% dive. Even after that, GameStop stock was up 1,070% year to date through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>此后，股价一直相对低迷，直到周四暴跌 27%。即便如此，截至周四收盘，游戏驿站股价今年迄今已上涨 1,070%。</blockquote></p><p> Could GME be inflating SLYV's performance? Certainly, given its quadruple-digit gain. But a look at SLYG's portfolio is interesting. GameStop stock is also the top holding in the growth stock ETF, though the rest of the top 10 differ vastly.</p><p><blockquote>GME 会夸大 SLYV 的业绩吗？当然，考虑到其四位数的增益。但看看 SLYG 的投资组合很有趣。游戏驿站股票也是成长型股票 ETF 中持有量最大的股票，尽管前 10 名中的其他股票差异很大。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Second Meme Stock In Top 10</b></p><p><blockquote><b>前 10 名中的第二只模因股票</b></blockquote></p><p> PDC Energy, up 130%, saw the next biggest gain in the top 10. The Colorado-based oil and gas explorer has a 97Relative Strength Rating, which mean it's in the top 3% of all stocks. Its relative strength line is at a 52-week high, a bullish sign.</p><p><blockquote>PDC Energy 上涨 130%，在前 10 名中涨幅第二大。这家总部位于科罗拉多州的石油和天然气勘探公司的相对实力评级为 97，这意味着它在所有股票中排名前 3%。其相对强弱线处于 52 周高点，这是一个看涨信号。</blockquote></p><p> Bed Bath &amp; Beyond, another meme stock, is up 78% this year. Shares surged more than 200% in January, amid a spate of wild double-digit swings. BBBY stock then gave back the bulk of its gains.</p><p><blockquote>另一只模因股票 Bed Bath &amp; Beyond 今年上涨了 78%。1 月份，股价飙升超过 200%，出现了一系列两位数的剧烈波动。BBBY 股票随后回吐了大部分涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> But the home goods retailer appears to be back on the radar of the WallStreetBets discussion group. On June 2, Bed Bath &amp; Beyond soared 62% before diving 28% the next session.</p><p><blockquote>但这家家居用品零售商似乎又回到了 WallStreetBets 讨论组的视线中。6 月 2 日，Bed Bath &amp; Beyond 飙升 62%，然后在接下来的交易日暴跌 28%。</blockquote></p><p> The rest of the top 10 stocks have also outperformed the broader market. Macy's is up 68% year to date, while Resideo, Pacific Premier and Ameris have risen more than 40% each. The lowest gainer, bank holding company First Hawaiian, has advanced 20%. The S&amp;P 500 held a 13% gain through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>前 10 名股票的其余表现也优于大盘。梅西百货今年迄今已上涨 68%，而 Resideo、Pacific Premier 和 Ameris 的股价均上涨超过 40%。涨幅最低的银行控股公司 First Hawaiian 上涨了 20%。截至周四收盘，标普500上涨 13%。</blockquote></p><p> SLYV remains in potential buy range from an 87.29entryof acup with handle, according toMarketSmithchart analysis.&nbsp;SLYV and SLYG charge a 0.15% expense ratio.</p><p><blockquote>根据 MarketSmithChart 分析，SLYV 仍处于带手柄的 acup 的潜在买入区间，为 87.29。 SLYV 和 SLYG 收取 0.15% 的费用率。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/etf-leaders/gamestop-stock-soars-1000-percent-lead-two-top-small-cap-stock-plays/?src=A00220\">investors</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PDCE":"PDC Energy"},"source_url":"https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/etf-leaders/gamestop-stock-soars-1000-percent-lead-two-top-small-cap-stock-plays/?src=A00220","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185020128","content_text":"GameStop may be the top holding in SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Value, but that's not the only reason the ETF is beating its growth-stock counterpart.\nThe $4.2 billion value fund tracks the S&P SmallCap 600 Value Index (SLYV), composed of stocks with the strongest value traits based on book value to price ratio, earnings to price ratio, and sales to price ratio. SLYV rallied 32% this year through Thursday's close.\nThat more than doubles the return of its growth stock counterpart, SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Growth (SLYG), which is up 15%. The index SLYG tracks includes stocks with the strongest growth traits based on sales growth, earnings change to price and momentum.\nBack to SLYV, financials accounted for the biggest sector weight at 24% of assets. Industrials weighed in at about 17%, consumer discretionary 15% and real estate 10%. Information technology was next at 8% and materials, energy and health care, 6% each. Smaller positions in consumer staples, utilities and communication services made up the rest.\nSPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Value is in IBD's ETF Leaders, but SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Growth is not.\nGameStop Stock Leads\nGameStop(GME),Macy's(M),PDC Energy(PDCE),Resideo Technologies(REZI) andBankUnited(BKU) were the top five holdings as of Wednesday.\nPacific Premier Bancorp(PPBI),Bed Bath & Beyond(BBBY),Ameris Bancorp(ABCB),First Hawaiian(FHB) andInsight Enterprises(NSIT) rounded out the top 10.\nGameStop has undergone wide swings this year. It rocketed about 2,500% early this year amid theshort-squeeze rallyfueled by the Reddit/WallStreetBets crowd.GME stockthen crashed 92% from a Jan. 28 high to its mid-February low. That was followed by an 805% surge the next three weeks, and a 66% drop over the next two weeks.\nAction had been relatively subdued since, until Thursday's 27% dive. Even after that, GameStop stock was up 1,070% year to date through Thursday's close.\nCould GME be inflating SLYV's performance? Certainly, given its quadruple-digit gain. But a look at SLYG's portfolio is interesting. GameStop stock is also the top holding in the growth stock ETF, though the rest of the top 10 differ vastly.\nSecond Meme Stock In Top 10\nPDC Energy, up 130%, saw the next biggest gain in the top 10. The Colorado-based oil and gas explorer has a 97Relative Strength Rating, which mean it's in the top 3% of all stocks. Its relative strength line is at a 52-week high, a bullish sign.\nBed Bath & Beyond, another meme stock, is up 78% this year. Shares surged more than 200% in January, amid a spate of wild double-digit swings. BBBY stock then gave back the bulk of its gains.\nBut the home goods retailer appears to be back on the radar of the WallStreetBets discussion group. On June 2, Bed Bath & Beyond soared 62% before diving 28% the next session.\nThe rest of the top 10 stocks have also outperformed the broader market. Macy's is up 68% year to date, while Resideo, Pacific Premier and Ameris have risen more than 40% each. The lowest gainer, bank holding company First Hawaiian, has advanced 20%. The S&P 500 held a 13% gain through Thursday's close.\nSLYV remains in potential buy range from an 87.29entryof acup with handle, according toMarketSmithchart analysis. SLYV and SLYG charge a 0.15% expense ratio.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PDCE":0.9,"BBBY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1281,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188394852,"gmtCreate":1623421007776,"gmtModify":1631889872802,"author":{"id":"3582016561552186","authorId":"3582016561552186","name":"KMK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef525a9485b7272e73ab442de514d467","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016561552186","authorIdStr":"3582016561552186"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188394852","repostId":"1151053377","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151053377","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623420628,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1151053377?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-11 22:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fubo TV surged over 7% in morning trading<blockquote>富博电视早盘飙升逾7%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151053377","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(June 11) Fubo TV surged over 7% in morning trading. Days ago, Fubo launched its app on LG Electroni","content":"<p>(June 11)&nbsp;Fubo TV&nbsp;surged over 7% in morning trading.&nbsp;Days ago, Fubo launched its app on LG Electronics' webOS smart TV platform in the U.S. But outlook not yet carefree.</p><p><blockquote>（6月11日）富博电视早盘大涨逾7% 日前，富博在美国LG电子的webOS智能电视平台上推出了其app。但前景尚未无忧。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/227284f09c707eabfd28577428d98484\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"584\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> A streaming service with a strong focus on sports, FuboTV (<b>FUBO</b>) recently announced it would be offered on LG SmartTV’s in the U.S., increasing its customer base and brand awareness. (SeeFUBO stock analysison TipRanks)</p><p><blockquote>FuboTV是一家专注于体育的流媒体服务（<b>伏波</b>) 最近宣布将在美国的 LG 智能电视上提供这款产品，从而扩大其客户群和品牌知名度。（参见富博股票分析技巧排名）</blockquote></p><p> Publishing on a report on the matter,Darren Aftahiof Roth Capital Partners wrote that integration with LG “should help it grow top of funnel consumer awareness.” Aftahi maintained a Buy rating on the stock, and declared a price target of $42.</p><p><blockquote>罗斯资本合伙公司（Roth Capital Partners）的达伦-阿夫塔希（Darren Aftahio）在一份关于此事的报告中写道，与 LG 的整合 “应该有助于 LG 在消费者认知度漏斗顶端成长”。Aftahi 维持该股买入评级，并宣布目标价为 42 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Aftahi explained that consumers with LG SmartTV’s will have immediate access to free trials of FuboTV, which will be promoted for user download. This is significant as LG currently already holds about a 12% market share in the U.S. It is important to note, however, that the LG deal will only apply to models of the years 2018 through 2021.</p><p><blockquote>阿夫塔希解释说，拥有 LG 智能电视的消费者将可以立即免费试用 FuboTV，并将向用户推广下载。这一点意义重大，因为 LG 目前已在美国占据约 12% 的市场份额。然而，值得注意的是，LG的交易将仅适用于2018年至2021年的型号。</blockquote></p><p> The company has been making headway as of late, but it is not without its risks, details Aftahi. FuboTV relies heavily on sports content, and any sort of stoppages in the sports world will severely disrupt its outlook on growth. Furthermore, as big-ticket events such as the Olympics were cancelled last year, similar instances occurring will directly impact subscriber growth.</p><p><blockquote>阿夫塔希详细介绍说，该公司最近一直在取得进展，但并非没有风险。FuboTV严重依赖体育内容，体育界的任何形式的停摆都将严重扰乱其增长前景。此外，由于去年奥运会等大型赛事被取消，类似事件的发生将直接影响用户增长。</blockquote></p><p> The analyst was also concerned about sports streaming offerings from Youtube TV and Hulu, as well as other large service providers mounting serious competition. If Fubo is unable “to differentiate its service, attract, continually engage and retain users” its outlook will be impacted for the worse.</p><p><blockquote>这位分析师还担心Youtube TV和Hulu的体育流媒体产品，以及其他大型服务提供商的激烈竞争。如果 Fubo 无法 “使其服务与众不同，吸引、持续吸引和留住用户”，其前景将受到更糟的影响。</blockquote></p><p> On TipRanks, FUBO has an analyst rating consensus of Strong Buy, based on 6 Buy and 1 hold ratings. Theaverage analyst FUBO price targetis $38.86 per share, reflecting a potential 12-month upside of 29.2%.</p><p><blockquote>在 TipRanks 上，基于 6 个买入和 1 个持有评级，FUBO 的分析师评级一致为强烈买入。分析师 FUBO 的平均目标价为每股 38.86 美元，反映出 12 个月潜在上涨空间为 29.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99e7b4b19ad5a7bfcea122fd8eeee10b\" tg-width=\"959\" tg-height=\"528\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fubo TV surged over 7% in morning trading<blockquote>富博电视早盘飙升逾7%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFubo TV surged over 7% in morning trading<blockquote>富博电视早盘飙升逾7%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-11 22:10</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(June 11)&nbsp;Fubo TV&nbsp;surged over 7% in morning trading.&nbsp;Days ago, Fubo launched its app on LG Electronics' webOS smart TV platform in the U.S. But outlook not yet carefree.</p><p><blockquote>（6月11日）富博电视早盘大涨逾7% 日前，富博在美国LG电子的webOS智能电视平台上推出了其app。但前景尚未无忧。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/227284f09c707eabfd28577428d98484\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"584\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> A streaming service with a strong focus on sports, FuboTV (<b>FUBO</b>) recently announced it would be offered on LG SmartTV’s in the U.S., increasing its customer base and brand awareness. (SeeFUBO stock analysison TipRanks)</p><p><blockquote>FuboTV是一家专注于体育的流媒体服务（<b>伏波</b>) 最近宣布将在美国的 LG 智能电视上提供这款产品，从而扩大其客户群和品牌知名度。（参见富博股票分析技巧排名）</blockquote></p><p> Publishing on a report on the matter,Darren Aftahiof Roth Capital Partners wrote that integration with LG “should help it grow top of funnel consumer awareness.” Aftahi maintained a Buy rating on the stock, and declared a price target of $42.</p><p><blockquote>罗斯资本合伙公司（Roth Capital Partners）的达伦-阿夫塔希（Darren Aftahio）在一份关于此事的报告中写道，与 LG 的整合 “应该有助于 LG 在消费者认知度漏斗顶端成长”。Aftahi 维持该股买入评级，并宣布目标价为 42 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Aftahi explained that consumers with LG SmartTV’s will have immediate access to free trials of FuboTV, which will be promoted for user download. This is significant as LG currently already holds about a 12% market share in the U.S. It is important to note, however, that the LG deal will only apply to models of the years 2018 through 2021.</p><p><blockquote>阿夫塔希解释说，拥有 LG 智能电视的消费者将可以立即免费试用 FuboTV，并将向用户推广下载。这一点意义重大，因为 LG 目前已在美国占据约 12% 的市场份额。然而，值得注意的是，LG的交易将仅适用于2018年至2021年的型号。</blockquote></p><p> The company has been making headway as of late, but it is not without its risks, details Aftahi. FuboTV relies heavily on sports content, and any sort of stoppages in the sports world will severely disrupt its outlook on growth. Furthermore, as big-ticket events such as the Olympics were cancelled last year, similar instances occurring will directly impact subscriber growth.</p><p><blockquote>阿夫塔希详细介绍说，该公司最近一直在取得进展，但并非没有风险。FuboTV严重依赖体育内容，体育界的任何形式的停摆都将严重扰乱其增长前景。此外，由于去年奥运会等大型赛事被取消，类似事件的发生将直接影响用户增长。</blockquote></p><p> The analyst was also concerned about sports streaming offerings from Youtube TV and Hulu, as well as other large service providers mounting serious competition. If Fubo is unable “to differentiate its service, attract, continually engage and retain users” its outlook will be impacted for the worse.</p><p><blockquote>这位分析师还担心Youtube TV和Hulu的体育流媒体产品，以及其他大型服务提供商的激烈竞争。如果 Fubo 无法 “使其服务与众不同，吸引、持续吸引和留住用户”，其前景将受到更糟的影响。</blockquote></p><p> On TipRanks, FUBO has an analyst rating consensus of Strong Buy, based on 6 Buy and 1 hold ratings. Theaverage analyst FUBO price targetis $38.86 per share, reflecting a potential 12-month upside of 29.2%.</p><p><blockquote>在 TipRanks 上，基于 6 个买入和 1 个持有评级，FUBO 的分析师评级一致为强烈买入。分析师 FUBO 的平均目标价为每股 38.86 美元，反映出 12 个月潜在上涨空间为 29.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99e7b4b19ad5a7bfcea122fd8eeee10b\" tg-width=\"959\" tg-height=\"528\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"FUBO":"fuboTV Inc."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151053377","content_text":"(June 11) Fubo TV surged over 7% in morning trading. Days ago, Fubo launched its app on LG Electronics' webOS smart TV platform in the U.S. But outlook not yet carefree.\n\nA streaming service with a strong focus on sports, FuboTV (FUBO) recently announced it would be offered on LG SmartTV’s in the U.S., increasing its customer base and brand awareness. (SeeFUBO stock analysison TipRanks)\nPublishing on a report on the matter,Darren Aftahiof Roth Capital Partners wrote that integration with LG “should help it grow top of funnel consumer awareness.” Aftahi maintained a Buy rating on the stock, and declared a price target of $42.\nAftahi explained that consumers with LG SmartTV’s will have immediate access to free trials of FuboTV, which will be promoted for user download. This is significant as LG currently already holds about a 12% market share in the U.S. It is important to note, however, that the LG deal will only apply to models of the years 2018 through 2021.\nThe company has been making headway as of late, but it is not without its risks, details Aftahi. FuboTV relies heavily on sports content, and any sort of stoppages in the sports world will severely disrupt its outlook on growth. Furthermore, as big-ticket events such as the Olympics were cancelled last year, similar instances occurring will directly impact subscriber growth.\nThe analyst was also concerned about sports streaming offerings from Youtube TV and Hulu, as well as other large service providers mounting serious competition. If Fubo is unable “to differentiate its service, attract, continually engage and retain users” its outlook will be impacted for the worse.\nOn TipRanks, FUBO has an analyst rating consensus of Strong Buy, based on 6 Buy and 1 hold ratings. Theaverage analyst FUBO price targetis $38.86 per share, reflecting a potential 12-month upside of 29.2%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"FUBO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":989,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}