377tkr的个人主页 - 老虎社区

377tkr

377tkr

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2021-05-05

$SINGTEL(Z74.SI)$Waiting for better entry price

2021-12-16

Please like. Thanks

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-12-11

Please like. Thank you

Sea Ltd stock dropped more than 5% in morning trading<blockquote>Sea Ltd股价早盘下跌超过5%</blockquote>

2021-07-25

Thank you

Is IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider<blockquote>IBM股票是被低估还是被高估？要考虑什么</blockquote>

2021-08-25

Upside fast, downside will be harder

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-09

$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$Time frame for holding is too long.Condider other stocks

2021-05-07

$VENTURE CORPORATION LIMITED(V03.SI)$Waiting

2021-04-30

Waoh!!! 1 billion $$$

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-11-05

Get ready?

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-02

All got profit!

Pfizer, Moderna Hike Prices Of Vaccine Shots Supplied To EU: Report<blockquote>辉瑞和Moderna提高向欧盟供应的疫苗价格：报告</blockquote>

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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LIMITED(H78.SI)$Sideways?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/829638050","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2294,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":867036414,"gmtCreate":1633162197191,"gmtModify":1633162197453,"author":{"id":"3582001642809284","authorId":"3582001642809284","name":"377tkr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25cbfadab64a300119ffe30a37937ff2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582001642809284","idStr":"3582001642809284"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks&nbsp;","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/867036414","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1018,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":881329491,"gmtCreate":1631297176913,"gmtModify":1631891769752,"author":{"id":"3582001642809284","authorId":"3582001642809284","name":"377tkr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25cbfadab64a300119ffe30a37937ff2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582001642809284","idStr":"3582001642809284"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Chinese Tech stocks direction?","listText":"Chinese Tech stocks direction?","text":"Chinese Tech stocks direction?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/881329491","repostId":"2166375573","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":827,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":881329846,"gmtCreate":1631297099985,"gmtModify":1631891769756,"author":{"id":"3582001642809284","authorId":"3582001642809284","name":"377tkr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25cbfadab64a300119ffe30a37937ff2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582001642809284","idStr":"3582001642809284"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Can’t change all the time!","listText":"Can’t change all the time!","text":"Can’t change all the time!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/881329846","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":471,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":837852712,"gmtCreate":1629877574836,"gmtModify":1631891769759,"author":{"id":"3582001642809284","authorId":"3582001642809284","name":"377tkr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25cbfadab64a300119ffe30a37937ff2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582001642809284","idStr":"3582001642809284"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh!oh!","listText":"Oh!oh!","text":"Oh!oh!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/837852712","repostId":"2162103568","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1140,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":837825283,"gmtCreate":1629876626242,"gmtModify":1631891769761,"author":{"id":"3582001642809284","authorId":"3582001642809284","name":"377tkr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25cbfadab64a300119ffe30a37937ff2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582001642809284","idStr":"3582001642809284"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"No choice.","listText":"No choice.","text":"No choice.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/837825283","repostId":"2162556080","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":464,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":837821502,"gmtCreate":1629876266406,"gmtModify":1631891769762,"author":{"id":"3582001642809284","authorId":"3582001642809284","name":"377tkr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25cbfadab64a300119ffe30a37937ff2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582001642809284","idStr":"3582001642809284"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Upside fast, downside will be harder","listText":"Upside fast, downside will be harder","text":"Upside fast, downside will be harder","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/837821502","repostId":"2162087564","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":931,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":834207538,"gmtCreate":1629804152424,"gmtModify":1631891769766,"author":{"id":"3582001642809284","authorId":"3582001642809284","name":"377tkr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25cbfadab64a300119ffe30a37937ff2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582001642809284","idStr":"3582001642809284"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like n comment please","listText":"Like n comment please","text":"Like n comment please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/834207538","repostId":"1118026600","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":537,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":834207106,"gmtCreate":1629804121505,"gmtModify":1631891769771,"author":{"id":"3582001642809284","authorId":"3582001642809284","name":"377tkr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25cbfadab64a300119ffe30a37937ff2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582001642809284","idStr":"3582001642809284"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Well?","listText":"Well?","text":"Well?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/834207106","repostId":"1118026600","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":495,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":831887034,"gmtCreate":1629300628828,"gmtModify":1631891769771,"author":{"id":"3582001642809284","authorId":"3582001642809284","name":"377tkr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25cbfadab64a300119ffe30a37937ff2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582001642809284","idStr":"3582001642809284"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Next got 4th booster?","listText":"Next got 4th booster?","text":"Next got 4th booster?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/831887034","repostId":"2160737578","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1036,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":831885640,"gmtCreate":1629300520180,"gmtModify":1631891769778,"author":{"id":"3582001642809284","authorId":"3582001642809284","name":"377tkr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25cbfadab64a300119ffe30a37937ff2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582001642809284","idStr":"3582001642809284"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please. Thanks","listText":"Like please. Thanks","text":"Like please. Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/831885640","repostId":"1144088215","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1144088215","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629295773,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1144088215?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-18 22:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"A Correction Is Due And It Could Be Deep<blockquote>修正是必要的，而且可能是深刻的</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144088215","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe stock market is historically overvalued.\nThe stock market is overbought on long-term ch","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The stock market is historically overvalued.</li>  <li>The stock market is overbought on long-term charts.</li>  <li>Large caps stocks can easily correct 20%-30%, certain Meme and Zombie stocks could be much worse.</li>  <li>The Fed, as always, will play a pivotal role in how deep of a decline we see, watch the taper closely.</li>  <li>Raise cash quickly to the high end of your asset allocation policy.</li> </ul> Any look at an investment should start by asking about what the risks are. For context, we often look at the broader S&amp;P 500 (SPY) which represents most of the market capitalization in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>股市历来被高估。</li><li>从长期图表来看，股市处于超买状态。</li><li>大盘股可以轻松调整20%-30%，某些模因股和僵尸股可能会更糟。</li><li>美联储将一如既往地在我们看到的衰退深度中发挥关键作用，密切关注缩减规模。</li><li>快速筹集现金到你的资产配置政策的高端。</li></ul>任何对投资的审视都应该从询问风险开始。作为背景，我们经常关注更广泛的标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF），它代表了美国的大部分市值。</blockquote></p><p> Last year I warned that the stock market could become very overvalued. I urged caution in picking out stocks and ETFs. I also recommended Tesla (TSLA), Bitcoin (BTC-USD), the Invesco Clean Energy ETF (PBW) and the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK), so I am no uber-bear.</p><p><blockquote>去年我警告说，股市可能会变得非常高估。我敦促谨慎挑选股票和ETF。我还推荐了特斯拉(TSLA)、比特币(BTC-USD)、景顺清洁能源ETF(PBW)和方舟创新ETF(ARKK)，所以我不是超级空头。</blockquote></p><p> Today, the stock market is broadly overvalued, including both the Meme stocks and the Zombie stocks. Investor ideas on TINA - there's no alternative, FOMO - fear of missing out, and \"buy the dips\" has worked for over a year on the back of Fed stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>如今，股市普遍被高估，包括模因股和僵尸股。投资者对TINA的看法——别无选择，FOMO——害怕错过，在美联储刺激措施的支持下，“逢低买入”已经奏效了一年多。</blockquote></p><p> Now that stimulus is poised to start being reduced we can look back at history. We have been to this game before. Expect a choppy stock market to emerge imminently, if it hasn't already.</p><p><blockquote>既然刺激措施即将开始减少，我们可以回顾一下历史。我们以前看过这个比赛。预计动荡的股市即将出现，如果还没有出现的话。</blockquote></p><p> <b>S&amp;P 500 Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>标普500估值</b></blockquote></p><p> I have talked about excessive valuations in the stock market since around New Year’s. Here's about where we stand now.</p><p><blockquote>从新年前后开始，我就一直在谈论股市估值过高的问题。这是我们现在的处境。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f383143c5f4b2cf897f5a32c3dffb282\" tg-width=\"909\" tg-height=\"660\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> I pay special attention to Crestmont which I believe has an exceptional methodology. Here’s a combined look.</p><p><blockquote>我特别关注Crestmont，我认为它有一种特殊的方法。这是一个组合外观。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aba63b9e6f3bb97de066c43c7580a7d0\" tg-width=\"909\" tg-height=\"660\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Clearly, valuations are partying like 1999. This includes the zombies that are on borrowed (literally) time. The questions are how long the party can last and which companies will crash the hardest?</p><p><blockquote>显然，估值正在像1999年一样狂欢。这包括借来（字面上）时间的僵尸。问题是这场派对能持续多久，哪些公司会崩溃得最严重？</blockquote></p><p> While I like the entire tech-driven innovation, clean energy, AI, IoT, automation and emerging space economy themes, most of the large-cap stocks are ahead of themselves. The valuations of the S&amp;P 500 reflect that.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我喜欢整个技术驱动的创新、清洁能源、人工智能、物联网、自动化和新兴太空经济主题，但大多数大盘股都超前了。标普500的估值反映了这一点。</blockquote></p><p> While I have a hard time believing a reversion to mean would drive stocks back to fair valuation by historical standards due to interest rates likely to stay lower for longer, the simple withdrawal of QE - quantitative easing could see stocks drop 20% to 30% across large-cap indexes. Certain Meme categories and Zombie stocks could be worse.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我很难相信回归均值会推动股市回到历史标准的公平估值，因为利率可能会在更长时间内保持在较低水平，但简单地退出QE量化宽松可能会导致大盘指数下跌20%至30%。某些模因类别和僵尸股可能会更糟。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Technical View Of The S&amp;P 500</b></p><p><blockquote><b>标普500的技术观</b></blockquote></p><p> This is a monthly (SPY) chart. What jumps out at you?</p><p><blockquote>这是月度（SPDR标普500指数ETF）图表。什么让你印象深刻？</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45d1a060559c8a7991499236ab7ee5b8\" tg-width=\"1834\" tg-height=\"861\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> How about now?</p><p><blockquote>现在怎么样？</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e7a38531178fc1ee1e321842c8c80ca\" tg-width=\"1834\" tg-height=\"861\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/570890645cf8cc7eed30a3affaea8241\" tg-width=\"1834\" tg-height=\"861\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> A correction is inevitable. You are playing with fire if you are chasing here.</p><p><blockquote>修正是不可避免的。如果你在这里追，你就是在玩火。</blockquote></p><p> But, if you like it hot, there might be a bit more cigar to puff on before your lips get burned.</p><p><blockquote>但是，如果你喜欢热的，在你的嘴唇被烧伤之前，可能会有更多的雪茄可以抽。</blockquote></p><p> Shooter’s daily chart shows that a correction hasn’t started yet, but there's very little room left on the upside. Again, tough to be a chaser here unless you're very adept at swing trading, especially moves measured in under a month.</p><p><blockquote>舒特的日线图显示，调整尚未开始，但上涨空间已经所剩无几。再说一次，除非你非常擅长波段交易，尤其是不到一个月的波动，否则很难成为一名追逐者。</blockquote></p><p> Shooter and I are both showing an S&amp;P 500 correction to between about 350 and as low as around 300. A lot will depend on the size and speed of the Fed taper.</p><p><blockquote>舒特和我都显示标普500修正在350到300左右之间。很大程度上取决于美联储锥度的大小和速度。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What About The Fed?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美联储呢？</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fa0280b46d20716904484e370a3d8e0\" tg-width=\"1168\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> There's no denying the correlation of Fed balance sheet expansion and its impact on the stock market. When the Fed flattened the balance sheet in 2014 the stock market went choppy for two years.</p><p><blockquote>不可否认，美联储资产负债表扩张及其对股市影响的相关性。当美联储在2014年缩减资产负债表时，股市波动了两年。</blockquote></p><p> That was followed by cheap oil which pushed stocks up. But then, the Fed started to shrink their balance sheet outright and we got the two massive bouts of volatility in 2018. By September 2019 the repo market was collapsing and QE was restarted which again pushed stocks up.</p><p><blockquote>随后是廉价石油推高了股市。但随后，美联储开始彻底缩减资产负债表，2018年出现了两次大规模波动。到2019年9月，回购市场崩溃，QE重启，再次推高股市。</blockquote></p><p> Then COVID-19 hit causing one of the largest economic shocks in history. The Fed's response was massive bailouts that exceededthe economic damage. That explosive shock and awe response has carried the stock market since.</p><p><blockquote>然后新冠肺炎来袭，造成了历史上最大的经济冲击之一。美联储的反应是大规模救助，其规模超过了经济损失。这种爆炸性的震惊和敬畏反应推动了股市。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed has now moved from talking about tapering to talking about when to taper. The consensus is to start flattening the expansion soon. At the same time, we are at historic valuations and overbought on long-term charts. What could go wrong?</p><p><blockquote>美联储现在已经从谈论缩减转向谈论何时缩减。共识是尽快开始平抑扩张。与此同时，我们的估值处于历史高位，并且在长期图表上处于超买状态。会出什么问题？</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Interestingly, for the first time in a long time, margin debt ebbed a bit.</p><p><blockquote>有趣的是，很长一段时间以来，保证金债务首次有所退潮。</blockquote></p><p> That little tick near the bottom of the red line could just be a blip. Or it could be a sign of alligator jaws starting to close. There have been signs of reduced liquidity in recent weeks as indicated by the firming dollar. If the dollar rises to around $96 as I think is likely later this year or early next year, then stocks have a major headwind.</p><p><blockquote>红线底部附近的那个小滴答声可能只是一个信号。或者这可能是鳄鱼下巴开始闭合的迹象。最近几周出现了流动性减少的迹象，美元走强就表明了这一点。如果美元升至96美元左右（我认为可能在今年晚些时候或明年初），那么股市将面临重大阻力。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6aa7bfa757b16de395877355efd9d751\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Actions Now</b></p><p><blockquote><b>立即投资行动</b></blockquote></p><p> Very simply, raise cash levels to the conservative edge of your asset allocation plan. If you are retired and conservative by nature, raising cash to 50% by trimming your weakest positions most is a great idea.</p><p><blockquote>很简单，将现金水平提高到资产配置计划的保守边缘。如果你已经退休并且天生保守，通过削减你最弱的头寸将现金提高到50%是一个好主意。</blockquote></p><p> If you're more aggressive, then ramping up to a war chest of 20% cash makes a lot of sense by trimming your least attractive long-term holdings and weakest performers the past year. Often performance is a simple way to identify the weaklings in a portfolio, though clearly, it's not always that easy.</p><p><blockquote>如果您更加激进，那么通过削减过去一年中最没有吸引力的长期持股和表现最差的股票，将现金储备增加到20%是很有意义的。通常，业绩是识别投资组合中弱者的简单方法，尽管显然，这并不总是那么容易。</blockquote></p><p> In short, tighten up your asset allocation. Risk management first.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，收紧资产配置。风险管理第一。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A Correction Is Due And It Could Be Deep<blockquote>修正是必要的，而且可能是深刻的</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA Correction Is Due And It Could Be Deep<blockquote>修正是必要的，而且可能是深刻的</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-18 22:09</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The stock market is historically overvalued.</li>  <li>The stock market is overbought on long-term charts.</li>  <li>Large caps stocks can easily correct 20%-30%, certain Meme and Zombie stocks could be much worse.</li>  <li>The Fed, as always, will play a pivotal role in how deep of a decline we see, watch the taper closely.</li>  <li>Raise cash quickly to the high end of your asset allocation policy.</li> </ul> Any look at an investment should start by asking about what the risks are. For context, we often look at the broader S&amp;P 500 (SPY) which represents most of the market capitalization in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>股市历来被高估。</li><li>从长期图表来看，股市处于超买状态。</li><li>大盘股可以轻松调整20%-30%，某些模因股和僵尸股可能会更糟。</li><li>美联储将一如既往地在我们看到的衰退深度中发挥关键作用，密切关注缩减规模。</li><li>快速筹集现金到你的资产配置政策的高端。</li></ul>任何对投资的审视都应该从询问风险开始。作为背景，我们经常关注更广泛的标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF），它代表了美国的大部分市值。</blockquote></p><p> Last year I warned that the stock market could become very overvalued. I urged caution in picking out stocks and ETFs. I also recommended Tesla (TSLA), Bitcoin (BTC-USD), the Invesco Clean Energy ETF (PBW) and the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK), so I am no uber-bear.</p><p><blockquote>去年我警告说，股市可能会变得非常高估。我敦促谨慎挑选股票和ETF。我还推荐了特斯拉(TSLA)、比特币(BTC-USD)、景顺清洁能源ETF(PBW)和方舟创新ETF(ARKK)，所以我不是超级空头。</blockquote></p><p> Today, the stock market is broadly overvalued, including both the Meme stocks and the Zombie stocks. Investor ideas on TINA - there's no alternative, FOMO - fear of missing out, and \"buy the dips\" has worked for over a year on the back of Fed stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>如今，股市普遍被高估，包括模因股和僵尸股。投资者对TINA的看法——别无选择，FOMO——害怕错过，在美联储刺激措施的支持下，“逢低买入”已经奏效了一年多。</blockquote></p><p> Now that stimulus is poised to start being reduced we can look back at history. We have been to this game before. Expect a choppy stock market to emerge imminently, if it hasn't already.</p><p><blockquote>既然刺激措施即将开始减少，我们可以回顾一下历史。我们以前看过这个比赛。预计动荡的股市即将出现，如果还没有出现的话。</blockquote></p><p> <b>S&amp;P 500 Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>标普500估值</b></blockquote></p><p> I have talked about excessive valuations in the stock market since around New Year’s. Here's about where we stand now.</p><p><blockquote>从新年前后开始，我就一直在谈论股市估值过高的问题。这是我们现在的处境。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f383143c5f4b2cf897f5a32c3dffb282\" tg-width=\"909\" tg-height=\"660\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> I pay special attention to Crestmont which I believe has an exceptional methodology. Here’s a combined look.</p><p><blockquote>我特别关注Crestmont，我认为它有一种特殊的方法。这是一个组合外观。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aba63b9e6f3bb97de066c43c7580a7d0\" tg-width=\"909\" tg-height=\"660\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Clearly, valuations are partying like 1999. This includes the zombies that are on borrowed (literally) time. The questions are how long the party can last and which companies will crash the hardest?</p><p><blockquote>显然，估值正在像1999年一样狂欢。这包括借来（字面上）时间的僵尸。问题是这场派对能持续多久，哪些公司会崩溃得最严重？</blockquote></p><p> While I like the entire tech-driven innovation, clean energy, AI, IoT, automation and emerging space economy themes, most of the large-cap stocks are ahead of themselves. The valuations of the S&amp;P 500 reflect that.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我喜欢整个技术驱动的创新、清洁能源、人工智能、物联网、自动化和新兴太空经济主题，但大多数大盘股都超前了。标普500的估值反映了这一点。</blockquote></p><p> While I have a hard time believing a reversion to mean would drive stocks back to fair valuation by historical standards due to interest rates likely to stay lower for longer, the simple withdrawal of QE - quantitative easing could see stocks drop 20% to 30% across large-cap indexes. Certain Meme categories and Zombie stocks could be worse.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我很难相信回归均值会推动股市回到历史标准的公平估值，因为利率可能会在更长时间内保持在较低水平，但简单地退出QE量化宽松可能会导致大盘指数下跌20%至30%。某些模因类别和僵尸股可能会更糟。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Technical View Of The S&amp;P 500</b></p><p><blockquote><b>标普500的技术观</b></blockquote></p><p> This is a monthly (SPY) chart. What jumps out at you?</p><p><blockquote>这是月度（SPDR标普500指数ETF）图表。什么让你印象深刻？</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45d1a060559c8a7991499236ab7ee5b8\" tg-width=\"1834\" tg-height=\"861\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> How about now?</p><p><blockquote>现在怎么样？</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e7a38531178fc1ee1e321842c8c80ca\" tg-width=\"1834\" tg-height=\"861\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/570890645cf8cc7eed30a3affaea8241\" tg-width=\"1834\" tg-height=\"861\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> A correction is inevitable. You are playing with fire if you are chasing here.</p><p><blockquote>修正是不可避免的。如果你在这里追，你就是在玩火。</blockquote></p><p> But, if you like it hot, there might be a bit more cigar to puff on before your lips get burned.</p><p><blockquote>但是，如果你喜欢热的，在你的嘴唇被烧伤之前，可能会有更多的雪茄可以抽。</blockquote></p><p> Shooter’s daily chart shows that a correction hasn’t started yet, but there's very little room left on the upside. Again, tough to be a chaser here unless you're very adept at swing trading, especially moves measured in under a month.</p><p><blockquote>舒特的日线图显示，调整尚未开始，但上涨空间已经所剩无几。再说一次，除非你非常擅长波段交易，尤其是不到一个月的波动，否则很难成为一名追逐者。</blockquote></p><p> Shooter and I are both showing an S&amp;P 500 correction to between about 350 and as low as around 300. A lot will depend on the size and speed of the Fed taper.</p><p><blockquote>舒特和我都显示标普500修正在350到300左右之间。很大程度上取决于美联储锥度的大小和速度。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What About The Fed?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美联储呢？</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fa0280b46d20716904484e370a3d8e0\" tg-width=\"1168\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> There's no denying the correlation of Fed balance sheet expansion and its impact on the stock market. When the Fed flattened the balance sheet in 2014 the stock market went choppy for two years.</p><p><blockquote>不可否认，美联储资产负债表扩张及其对股市影响的相关性。当美联储在2014年缩减资产负债表时，股市波动了两年。</blockquote></p><p> That was followed by cheap oil which pushed stocks up. But then, the Fed started to shrink their balance sheet outright and we got the two massive bouts of volatility in 2018. By September 2019 the repo market was collapsing and QE was restarted which again pushed stocks up.</p><p><blockquote>随后是廉价石油推高了股市。但随后，美联储开始彻底缩减资产负债表，2018年出现了两次大规模波动。到2019年9月，回购市场崩溃，QE重启，再次推高股市。</blockquote></p><p> Then COVID-19 hit causing one of the largest economic shocks in history. The Fed's response was massive bailouts that exceededthe economic damage. That explosive shock and awe response has carried the stock market since.</p><p><blockquote>然后新冠肺炎来袭，造成了历史上最大的经济冲击之一。美联储的反应是大规模救助，其规模超过了经济损失。这种爆炸性的震惊和敬畏反应推动了股市。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed has now moved from talking about tapering to talking about when to taper. The consensus is to start flattening the expansion soon. At the same time, we are at historic valuations and overbought on long-term charts. What could go wrong?</p><p><blockquote>美联储现在已经从谈论缩减转向谈论何时缩减。共识是尽快开始平抑扩张。与此同时，我们的估值处于历史高位，并且在长期图表上处于超买状态。会出什么问题？</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Interestingly, for the first time in a long time, margin debt ebbed a bit.</p><p><blockquote>有趣的是，很长一段时间以来，保证金债务首次有所退潮。</blockquote></p><p> That little tick near the bottom of the red line could just be a blip. Or it could be a sign of alligator jaws starting to close. There have been signs of reduced liquidity in recent weeks as indicated by the firming dollar. If the dollar rises to around $96 as I think is likely later this year or early next year, then stocks have a major headwind.</p><p><blockquote>红线底部附近的那个小滴答声可能只是一个信号。或者这可能是鳄鱼下巴开始闭合的迹象。最近几周出现了流动性减少的迹象，美元走强就表明了这一点。如果美元升至96美元左右（我认为可能在今年晚些时候或明年初），那么股市将面临重大阻力。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6aa7bfa757b16de395877355efd9d751\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Actions Now</b></p><p><blockquote><b>立即投资行动</b></blockquote></p><p> Very simply, raise cash levels to the conservative edge of your asset allocation plan. If you are retired and conservative by nature, raising cash to 50% by trimming your weakest positions most is a great idea.</p><p><blockquote>很简单，将现金水平提高到资产配置计划的保守边缘。如果你已经退休并且天生保守，通过削减你最弱的头寸将现金提高到50%是一个好主意。</blockquote></p><p> If you're more aggressive, then ramping up to a war chest of 20% cash makes a lot of sense by trimming your least attractive long-term holdings and weakest performers the past year. Often performance is a simple way to identify the weaklings in a portfolio, though clearly, it's not always that easy.</p><p><blockquote>如果您更加激进，那么通过削减过去一年中最没有吸引力的长期持股和表现最差的股票，将现金储备增加到20%是很有意义的。通常，业绩是识别投资组合中弱者的简单方法，尽管显然，这并不总是那么容易。</blockquote></p><p> In short, tighten up your asset allocation. Risk management first.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，收紧资产配置。风险管理第一。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4450105-a-correction-is-due-and-it-could-be-deep\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4450105-a-correction-is-due-and-it-could-be-deep","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144088215","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe stock market is historically overvalued.\nThe stock market is overbought on long-term charts.\nLarge caps stocks can easily correct 20%-30%, certain Meme and Zombie stocks could be much worse.\nThe Fed, as always, will play a pivotal role in how deep of a decline we see, watch the taper closely.\nRaise cash quickly to the high end of your asset allocation policy.\n\nAny look at an investment should start by asking about what the risks are. For context, we often look at the broader S&P 500 (SPY) which represents most of the market capitalization in the U.S.\nLast year I warned that the stock market could become very overvalued. I urged caution in picking out stocks and ETFs. I also recommended Tesla (TSLA), Bitcoin (BTC-USD), the Invesco Clean Energy ETF (PBW) and the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK), so I am no uber-bear.\nToday, the stock market is broadly overvalued, including both the Meme stocks and the Zombie stocks. Investor ideas on TINA - there's no alternative, FOMO - fear of missing out, and \"buy the dips\" has worked for over a year on the back of Fed stimulus.\nNow that stimulus is poised to start being reduced we can look back at history. We have been to this game before. Expect a choppy stock market to emerge imminently, if it hasn't already.\nS&P 500 Valuation\nI have talked about excessive valuations in the stock market since around New Year’s. Here's about where we stand now.\n\nI pay special attention to Crestmont which I believe has an exceptional methodology. Here’s a combined look.\n\nClearly, valuations are partying like 1999. This includes the zombies that are on borrowed (literally) time. The questions are how long the party can last and which companies will crash the hardest?\nWhile I like the entire tech-driven innovation, clean energy, AI, IoT, automation and emerging space economy themes, most of the large-cap stocks are ahead of themselves. The valuations of the S&P 500 reflect that.\nWhile I have a hard time believing a reversion to mean would drive stocks back to fair valuation by historical standards due to interest rates likely to stay lower for longer, the simple withdrawal of QE - quantitative easing could see stocks drop 20% to 30% across large-cap indexes. Certain Meme categories and Zombie stocks could be worse.\nThe Technical View Of The S&P 500\nThis is a monthly (SPY) chart. What jumps out at you?\n\nHow about now?\n\nA correction is inevitable. You are playing with fire if you are chasing here.\nBut, if you like it hot, there might be a bit more cigar to puff on before your lips get burned.\nShooter’s daily chart shows that a correction hasn’t started yet, but there's very little room left on the upside. Again, tough to be a chaser here unless you're very adept at swing trading, especially moves measured in under a month.\nShooter and I are both showing an S&P 500 correction to between about 350 and as low as around 300. A lot will depend on the size and speed of the Fed taper.\nWhat About The Fed?\n\nThere's no denying the correlation of Fed balance sheet expansion and its impact on the stock market. When the Fed flattened the balance sheet in 2014 the stock market went choppy for two years.\nThat was followed by cheap oil which pushed stocks up. But then, the Fed started to shrink their balance sheet outright and we got the two massive bouts of volatility in 2018. By September 2019 the repo market was collapsing and QE was restarted which again pushed stocks up.\nThen COVID-19 hit causing one of the largest economic shocks in history. The Fed's response was massive bailouts that exceededthe economic damage. That explosive shock and awe response has carried the stock market since.\nThe Fed has now moved from talking about tapering to talking about when to taper. The consensus is to start flattening the expansion soon. At the same time, we are at historic valuations and overbought on long-term charts. What could go wrong?\nInterestingly, for the first time in a long time, margin debt ebbed a bit.\nThat little tick near the bottom of the red line could just be a blip. Or it could be a sign of alligator jaws starting to close. There have been signs of reduced liquidity in recent weeks as indicated by the firming dollar. If the dollar rises to around $96 as I think is likely later this year or early next year, then stocks have a major headwind.\n\nInvestment Actions Now\nVery simply, raise cash levels to the conservative edge of your asset allocation plan. If you are retired and conservative by nature, raising cash to 50% by trimming your weakest positions most is a great idea.\nIf you're more aggressive, then ramping up to a war chest of 20% cash makes a lot of sense by trimming your least attractive long-term holdings and weakest performers the past year. Often performance is a simple way to identify the weaklings in a portfolio, though clearly, it's not always that easy.\nIn short, tighten up your asset allocation. Risk management first.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":899,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":102209275,"gmtCreate":1620213648897,"gmtModify":1631887136968,"author":{"id":"3582001642809284","authorId":"3582001642809284","name":"377tkr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25cbfadab64a300119ffe30a37937ff2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582001642809284","authorIdStr":"3582001642809284"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/Z74.SI\">$SINGTEL(Z74.SI)$</a>Waiting for better entry price","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/Z74.SI\">$SINGTEL(Z74.SI)$</a>Waiting for better entry price","text":"$SINGTEL(Z74.SI)$Waiting for better entry price","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/102209275","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1318,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":690993006,"gmtCreate":1639619072022,"gmtModify":1639619199424,"author":{"id":"3582001642809284","authorId":"3582001642809284","name":"377tkr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25cbfadab64a300119ffe30a37937ff2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582001642809284","authorIdStr":"3582001642809284"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please like. Thanks","listText":"Please like. Thanks","text":"Please like. Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690993006","repostId":"2191994940","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2419,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":605653701,"gmtCreate":1639156999405,"gmtModify":1639156999547,"author":{"id":"3582001642809284","authorId":"3582001642809284","name":"377tkr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25cbfadab64a300119ffe30a37937ff2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582001642809284","authorIdStr":"3582001642809284"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please like. Thank you","listText":"Please like. Thank you","text":"Please like. Thank you","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/605653701","repostId":"1133027099","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133027099","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1639152670,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1133027099?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-11 00:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Sea Ltd stock dropped more than 5% in morning trading<blockquote>Sea Ltd股价早盘下跌超过5%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133027099","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Sea Ltd stock dropped more than 5% in morning trading.","content":"<p>Sea Ltd stock dropped more than 5% in morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>Sea Ltd股价早盘下跌超过5%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6295277426435ac2c7135ba73dfbdef\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSea Ltd stock dropped more than 5% in morning trading<blockquote>Sea Ltd股价早盘下跌超过5%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-11 00:11</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Sea Ltd stock dropped more than 5% in morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>Sea Ltd股价早盘下跌超过5%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6295277426435ac2c7135ba73dfbdef\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133027099","content_text":"Sea Ltd stock dropped more than 5% in morning trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2525,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":177213826,"gmtCreate":1627222175265,"gmtModify":1633767073520,"author":{"id":"3582001642809284","authorId":"3582001642809284","name":"377tkr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25cbfadab64a300119ffe30a37937ff2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582001642809284","authorIdStr":"3582001642809284"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thank you","listText":"Thank you","text":"Thank you","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177213826","repostId":"1176552691","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176552691","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627183789,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1176552691?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-25 11:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider<blockquote>IBM股票是被低估还是被高估？要考虑什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176552691","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nIBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>IBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.</li>  <li>Prior to Q1, IBM posted declining revenue for four consecutive quarters, and 30 of the last 34 quarters.</li>  <li>More transparency is needed regarding the Kyndryl spinoff.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c798e0536c6804d44b195f6f349fab5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1044\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Ethan Miller/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>随着云收入和营业利润率的改善，IBM第二季度盈利超出了分析师的预期。</li><li>在第一季度之前，IBM连续四个季度收入下降，过去34个季度中有30个季度收入下降。</li><li>Kyndryl分拆需要更多透明度。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>伊森·米勒/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) is a company in transition. Unfortunately for investors, the transition has been in place for the better part of a decade. Those turnaround efforts include investments in cloud computing and artificial intelligence and the divestiture of legacy businesses. While there are now signs of green shoots, it is yet to be seen as to whether the seeds sown have fallen on rocky ground.</p><p><blockquote>国际商业机器公司（IBM）是一家转型中的公司。不幸的是，对于投资者来说，这种转变已经持续了十年的大部分时间。这些扭亏为盈的努力包括对云计算和人工智能的投资以及剥离遗留业务。虽然现在有绿芽的迹象，但播下的种子是否落在岩石上还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Although the company has a rapidly growing business in hybrid cloud offerings, and a potential growth engine in quantum computing, it faces intense competition in the former industry and uncertain prospects in the latter. Most of the firm’s other businesses are in the doldrums, so IBM’s growth prospects are opaque.</p><p><blockquote>尽管该公司在混合云产品方面拥有快速增长的业务，并在量子计算方面拥有潜在的增长引擎，但它面临着前一个行业的激烈竞争和后一个行业的不确定前景。该公司的大多数其他业务都处于低迷状态，因此IBM的增长前景不明朗。</blockquote></p><p> What is certain is that as of today, IBM has a reasonable and diminishing debt load and strong free cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，截至今天，IBM的债务负担合理且不断减少，自由现金流强劲。</blockquote></p><p> Management is attempting to address growth concerns in part by focusing on the firm’s cloud offerings, while it spins off its managed infrastructure business. That company will be named Kyndryl. However, the debt which the new entity will shoulder, along with the portion of the current dividend that it will carry, has not been divulged.</p><p><blockquote>管理层正试图通过专注于公司的云产品来部分解决增长问题，同时剥离其托管基础设施业务。该公司将被命名为Kyndryl。然而，新实体将承担的债务以及其将承担的当前股息部分尚未透露。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recent Quarterly Results</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最近季度业绩</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM&nbsp;reported&nbsp;Q2 results last Monday. With non-GAAP EPS of $2.33, the company beat estimates by $0.04.</p><p><blockquote>IBM上周一公布了第二季度业绩。该公司的非GAAP每股收益为2.33美元，超出预期0.04美元。</blockquote></p><p> Revenue of $18.7 billion was flat when adjusted for currency and divestitures.</p><p><blockquote>经货币和资产剥离调整后，营收为187亿美元，持平。</blockquote></p><p> The negative side of the report had Systems revenue declining by 7%. However, this was largely due to the normal IBM Z mainframe cycle, down 13% year over year.</p><p><blockquote>该报告的负面影响是系统收入下降了7%。然而，这主要是由于正常的IBM Z大型机周期，同比下降13%。</blockquote></p><p> The global financing division, which represents a low single digit percentage of overall revenues, was down 9%. Global technology services, which represents roughly a third of overall revenue and will largely be spun off as Kyndryl, had flattish growth.</p><p><blockquote>全球融资部门在总收入中所占比例较低，下降了9%。全球技术服务约占总收入的三分之一，并将主要分拆为Kyndryl，但增长平缓。</blockquote></p><p> The positive side of the report had Cloud &amp; Cognitive Software cloud revenue up 29% and Global Business Services cloud revenue up 35%. Total cloud revenue of $27 billion increased by 15% over the last 12 months, while cloud revenue grew 13% in the quarter to $7.0 billion.</p><p><blockquote>该报告的积极一面是云和认知软件云收入增长了29%，全球商业服务云收入增长了35%。过去12个月，云总收入为270亿美元，增长了15%，而本季度云收入增长了13%，达到70亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Net cash from operating activities hit $17.7 billion, and adjusted free cash flow totaled $11 billion over the last 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>过去12个月，经营活动产生的净现金达到177亿美元，调整后的自由现金流总计110亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Since year-end 2020, the company has reduced debt by $6.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年底以来，该公司已减少债务64亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>2021年调整后自由现金流110亿至120亿美元的管理指南。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where IBM Stands Tall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM屹立不倒的地方</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM is viewed by many as at best a third rate IT company and at worst as a dinosaur, headed towards extinction.</p><p><blockquote>许多人认为IBM往好了说是一家三流IT公司，往坏了说是一只濒临灭绝的恐龙。</blockquote></p><p> It is evident that the company’s revenues have declined for years; however, to accurately assess the stock, investors must understand that IBM’s legacy businesses have many strengths.</p><p><blockquote>很明显，该公司的收入多年来一直在下降；然而，为了准确评估该股票，投资者必须了解IBM的传统业务有许多优势。</blockquote></p><p> For example, IBM is the world’s largest IT services company and the dominant provider of mainframes. Among the Fortune 50 companies, 47 are IBM clients.</p><p><blockquote>例如，IBM是世界上最大的IT服务公司，也是大型机的主要提供商。在财富50强公司中，有47家是IBM的客户。</blockquote></p><p> Half of the world’s wireless connections are handled by the firm.</p><p><blockquote>世界上一半的无线连接由该公司处理。</blockquote></p><p> IBM's mainframe systems process nearly 90% of the globe’s credit card transactions, and 97% of the world's largest banks rely on IBM products and services. Consequently, twenty-nine billion ATM transactions are processed annually using IBM systems.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的大型机系统处理全球近90%的信用卡交易，97%的全球最大银行依赖IBM的产品和服务。因此，每年使用IBM系统处理290亿笔ATM交易。</blockquote></p><p> Eight out of 10 global retailers rely on IBM products and services while 80% of the travel industry's reservations run through IBM systems. That results in 4 billion flight reservations being processed using the company’s IT services.</p><p><blockquote>十分之八的全球零售商依赖IBM的产品和服务，而80%的旅游业预订通过IBM系统进行。这导致使用该公司的IT服务处理40亿次航班预订。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ace4f1436fd2697c5ad266b5017e1dd\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"721\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Forbes</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：福布斯</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is evident that IBM has a massive customer base that provides large scale recurring revenues. In many cases, moving to competitors' offerings would mean risking the transfer of sensitive information, a move many are not willing to take.</p><p><blockquote>很明显，IBM拥有庞大的客户群，提供了大规模的经常性收入。在许多情况下，转向竞争对手的产品意味着冒着敏感信息转移的风险，而许多人不愿意采取这一举措。</blockquote></p><p> However, with the transition to cloud services and open source software, there is an increased adoption by firms of mix and match IT infrastructures. In turn, this is eroding IBM’s competitive advantage associated with customer switching costs.</p><p><blockquote>然而，随着向云服务和开源软件的过渡，越来越多的公司采用混合搭配的IT基础设施。反过来，这正在侵蚀IBM与客户转换成本相关的竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Sources Of Potential Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>潜在增长的来源</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Investors are generally aware of IBM's effort to drive growth through its hybrid cloud offerings. However, when questioned at JPMorgan’s recent investor conference, CFO Jim Kavanaugh&nbsp;provided insight&nbsp;into how hybrid cloud drives revenue in some of IBM’s other divisions.</p><p><blockquote>投资者普遍了解IBM通过其混合云产品推动增长的努力。然而，在摩根大通最近的投资者会议上，首席财务官吉姆·卡瓦诺（Jim Kavanaugh）就混合云如何推动IBM其他一些部门的收入提供了见解。</blockquote></p><p>   For every $1 (in business) we land on a hybrid cloud platform, we see $3 to $5 of software drag and $6 to $8 of services drag overall.  Of course, Kavanaugh is using drag to refer to increased revenue in software and services associated with adoption of IBM’s hybrid cloud. If Kavanaugh’s claims are accurate, that means every dollar spent on the company’s hybrid cloud platform translates into $9 to $13 in additional revenue from the firm’s software and services offerings.</p><p><blockquote>我们在混合云平台上每投入1美元（业务），我们就会看到3到5美元的软件拖累和6到8美元的服务拖累。当然，Kavanaugh使用drag来指的是与采用IBM混合云相关的软件和服务收入的增加。如果卡瓦诺的说法准确，这意味着在该公司混合云平台上花费的每一美元都可以从该公司的软件和服务产品中获得9至13美元的额外收入。</blockquote></p><p> Because hybrid cloud uses a mix of on-premises private cloud and public cloud services, it offers clients a degree of data privacy. This is of particular concern for customers in healthcare and financial services. Consequently, I would posit that IBM might have an advantage in competing with other hybrid cloud providers as it has extensive relationships within those industries.</p><p><blockquote>由于混合云混合使用内部私有云和公共云服务，因此它为客户提供了一定程度的数据隐私。这是医疗保健和金融服务客户特别关注的问题。因此，我认为IBM在与其他混合云提供商的竞争中可能具有优势，因为它在这些行业中拥有广泛的关系。</blockquote></p><p> I reviewed a variety of prognostications regarding projected growth rates for the hybrid cloud market. The most recent study, which also falls in the middle of other predictions, is by Mordor Intelligence. That firm&nbsp;forecasts&nbsp;a CAGR of 18.73% from 2021 through 2026.</p><p><blockquote>我回顾了关于混合云市场预计增长率的各种预测。最近的研究，也属于其他预测的中间，是由魔多情报局进行的。该公司预测2021年至2026年的复合年增长率为18.73%。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should be aware that the major operators in this space are Cisco (CSCO), Hewlett Packard (HPE), Amazon (AMZN), Citrix Systems (CTXS), and IBM.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该知道，该领域的主要运营商是思科(CSCO)、惠普(HPE)、亚马逊(AMZN)、思杰系统(CTXS)和IBM。</blockquote></p><p> The following chart provides a record of the firm’s total cloud growth over the last six quarters.</p><p><blockquote>下图提供了该公司过去六个季度的总云增长记录。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fc85156e70f6caf8ae809f76126a723\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"336\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Company reports / Chart by Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司报告/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Aside from cloud, there is another source of potential growth, although it is unlikely to materialize soon.</p><p><blockquote>除了云之外，还有另一个潜在增长的来源，尽管它不太可能很快实现。</blockquote></p><p> Early in 2019, IBM&nbsp;introduced&nbsp;the Q System One. IBM Q systems are the world's first quantum computer designed for scientific and commercial use.</p><p><blockquote>2019年初，IBM推出了Q System One。IBM Q systems是世界上第一台专为科学和商业用途而设计的量子计算机。</blockquote></p><p> Pardon the pun, but quantum computers represent a quantum leap in technology. Prescient And Strategic Intelligence&nbsp;forecasts&nbsp;a CAGR of 56% for the industry through 2030 with the quantum computer market share reaching nearly $65 billion.</p><p><blockquote>原谅我的双关语，但量子计算机代表了技术的巨大飞跃。Prescient And Strategic Intelligence预测，到2030年，该行业的CAGR将达到56%，量子计算机市场份额将达到近650亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> For additional insights regarding quantum computing and IBM’s position within that industry, I point you to&nbsp;my article, “IBM: Why My Eye Is Fixed On Big Blue.”</p><p><blockquote>有关量子计算和IBM在该行业中的地位的更多见解，我向您推荐我的文章“IBM：为什么我的眼睛盯着蓝色巨人”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Understanding Kyndryl</b></p><p><blockquote><b>了解Kyndryl</b></blockquote></p><p> Once&nbsp;Kyndryl&nbsp;is launched, it will have more than 90,000 employees and more than 4,600 customers in 115 countries. With a $60 billion services backlog, the new entity will begin with projected revenues of $19 billion. At twice the size of its closest competitor, the company will be the world’s largest managed infrastructure services provider.</p><p><blockquote>Kyndryl一旦上市，将在115个国家拥有9万多名员工和4600多家客户。新实体的服务积压量为600亿美元，预计收入为190亿美元。该公司的规模是最接近的竞争对手的两倍，将成为全球最大的托管基础设施服务提供商。</blockquote></p><p> The split will&nbsp;transform&nbsp;IBM from a company that pulls half of its revenue from services to a firm with its software and solutions businesses generating over half of its revenue on a recurring basis.</p><p><blockquote>此次分拆将使IBM从一家一半收入来自服务的公司转变为一家软件和解决方案业务经常性收入超过一半的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Global Business Services, which currently constitutes 22% of the company’s revenue, will&nbsp;account&nbsp;for over 40% of sales. Here it is important to note that the division grew revenue by 12% year over year in the last quarter.</p><p><blockquote>全球商业服务目前占公司收入的22%，将占销售额的40%以上。值得注意的是，该部门上季度的收入同比增长了12%。</blockquote></p><p> IBM will retain Red Hat and its solution provider business, the systems businesses, and its mission-critical public cloud service, and a software portfolio focused on big data, AI, and security.</p><p><blockquote>IBM将保留Red Hat及其解决方案提供商业务、系统业务、关键任务公共云服务，以及专注于大数据、人工智能和安全的软件组合。</blockquote></p><p> Initially, the two companies will each be the largest customer of the other.</p><p><blockquote>最初，两家公司将各自成为对方的最大客户。</blockquote></p><p> What remains to be known regarding the spinoff is how much debt each company will shoulder, and the share of the dividend that the companies will pay. Krishna stated the two companies will work together to sustain the current payout level.</p><p><blockquote>关于分拆，尚待了解的是每家公司将承担多少债务，以及公司将支付的股息份额。克里希纳表示，两家公司将共同努力维持目前的支付水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Has IBM Turned The Corner?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM转危为安了吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Anyone who follows IBM knows the company has experienced an extended period of poor results. The following chart provides a record of the firm’s quarterly FCF over the last fourteen quarters.</p><p><blockquote>任何关注IBM的人都知道该公司经历了长期的糟糕业绩。下图提供了该公司过去十四个季度的季度自由现金流记录。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60cc8b82052f97dd449205999ee30711\" tg-width=\"577\" tg-height=\"337\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Data from ycharts / chart by author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：数据来自ycharts/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While this is not proof positive that the company is back on track, the recent trend is at least encouraging.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这并不能证明该公司重回正轨，但最近的趋势至少令人鼓舞。</blockquote></p><p> In 2020, IBM generated $10.8 billion in free cash flow. Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021. This excludes $3 billion in structural impacts related to the Kyndryl spinoff.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，IBM产生了108亿美元的自由现金流。2021年调整后自由现金流110亿至120亿美元的管理指南。这不包括与Kyndryl分拆相关的30亿美元结构性影响。</blockquote></p><p> The CEO&nbsp;recently stated&nbsp;he expects IBM to generate $12 billion to $13 billion in FCF in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>这位首席执行官最近表示，他预计IBM将在2022年产生120亿至130亿美元的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Debt And Dividend</b></p><p><blockquote><b>债务和股息</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> While investors can rightfully complain of a variety of management moves over the years, the firm has maintained a reasonable debt profile while engaging in a number of acquisitions.</p><p><blockquote>虽然投资者可以理所当然地抱怨多年来的各种管理层举措，但该公司在进行多项收购的同时保持了合理的债务状况。</blockquote></p><p> The company has reduced the debt by roughly $18 billion since its peak in mid-2019. IBM maintains an investment level credit rating, and the following chart provides a record of the company’s progress paying down debt of late.</p><p><blockquote>自2019年年中达到峰值以来，该公司已将债务减少了约180亿美元。IBM维持投资级信用评级，下图记录了该公司最近偿还债务的进展。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b73e613157c486a5f5e8306546121971\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"720\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: IBM Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：IBM演示文稿</span></p></blockquote></p><p> IBM has a yield of 4.64%, a payout ratio a bit below 61%, and a 5 year dividend growth rate of 4.26%. As previously noted, following the spinoff of Kyndryl, the two companies will team to provide a payout equivalent to the current dividend.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的收益率为4.64%，派息率略低于61%，5年股息增长率为4.26%。如前所述，Kyndryl分拆后，两家公司将合作提供相当于当前股息的派息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is IBM Stock Overvalued?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM股票是否被高估？</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM shares trade for $141.13. The average 12 month price target of 8 analysts is $153.50. The price target of the 3 analysts rating the stock since the last earnings report is $151.33.</p><p><blockquote>IBM股价交易价格为141.13美元。8位分析师的平均12个月目标价为153.50美元。自上次收益报告以来，对该股进行评级的3位分析师的目标价为151.33美元。</blockquote></p><p> IBM has a P/E of 24.05x and a forward P/E of 17.67x. This compares to its five year averages of 16.42x and 13.25x respectively. It is well below the sector average which is in the low thirties for both metrics.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的市盈率为24.05倍，远期市盈率为17.67倍。相比之下，其五年平均值分别为16.42倍和13.25倍。这远低于行业平均水平，这两个指标都在三十左右。</blockquote></p><p> The 3 to 5 year PEG provided by Seeking Alpha Premium is 1.16x. Schwab calculates a PEG of 1.49x, and Yahoo does not provide a PEG ratio.</p><p><blockquote>Seeking Alpha Premium提供的3至5年期PEG为1.16倍。嘉信理财计算的PEG为1.49倍，雅虎没有提供PEG比率。</blockquote></p><p> I believe the current P/E ratios for the stock reflect investors anticipating increased growth for IBM once the spinoff is complete. The PEG ratios show the stock is reasonably valued.</p><p><blockquote>我相信该股目前的市盈率反映了投资者对分拆完成后IBM增长加速的预期。PEG比率显示该股票估值合理。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is IBM Stock A Good Long-Term Investment?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM股票是一项不错的长期投资吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM has an entrenched but evolving position among many of the largest companies on the globe. Unfortunately, the cloud, which is seen as the company’s primary avenue for growth, could also lead to a slow deterioration in some of the firm’s legacy businesses.</p><p><blockquote>IBM在全球许多最大的公司中有着根深蒂固但不断发展的地位。不幸的是，被视为该公司主要增长途径的云也可能导致该公司一些遗留业务的缓慢恶化。</blockquote></p><p> That the cloud business has been growing at a rapid pace is manifest: IBM can now boast of over 3,200 clients using the firm’s hybrid cloud platform. That is nearly four times the number just prior to the Red Hat acquisition.</p><p><blockquote>云业务一直在快速增长是显而易见的：IBM现在拥有超过3,200个客户使用该公司的混合云平台。这几乎是收购红帽之前的四倍。</blockquote></p><p> If management’s claims are accurate, the hybrid cloud platform will create robust growth in the software and services division’s revenues. When combined with the spinoff of Kyndryl’s slow growing managed infrastructure services business, it is reasonable to believe IBM will witness increased growth.</p><p><blockquote>如果管理层的说法准确，混合云平台将为软件和服务部门的收入带来强劲增长。结合Kyndryl缓慢增长的托管基础设施服务业务的分拆，有理由相信IBM将见证增长。</blockquote></p><p> IBM has a solid balance sheet, a robust yield, and when viewed using PEG ratios as a basis for valuing the stock, the shares are trading at a bit of a discount.</p><p><blockquote>IBM拥有稳健的资产负债表和强劲的收益率，当使用PEG比率作为股票估值的基础时，该股的交易价格略有折扣。</blockquote></p><p> All considered, I rate IBM as a BUY.</p><p><blockquote>综合考虑，我对IBM的评级为买入。</blockquote></p><p> I think the worst case short to mid-term scenario is that the company experiences slow growth while investors collect a rather robust dividend.</p><p><blockquote>我认为中短期最糟糕的情况是公司增长缓慢，而投资者则获得相当强劲的股息。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider<blockquote>IBM股票是被低估还是被高估？要考虑什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider<blockquote>IBM股票是被低估还是被高估？要考虑什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-25 11:29</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>IBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.</li>  <li>Prior to Q1, IBM posted declining revenue for four consecutive quarters, and 30 of the last 34 quarters.</li>  <li>More transparency is needed regarding the Kyndryl spinoff.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c798e0536c6804d44b195f6f349fab5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1044\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Ethan Miller/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>随着云收入和营业利润率的改善，IBM第二季度盈利超出了分析师的预期。</li><li>在第一季度之前，IBM连续四个季度收入下降，过去34个季度中有30个季度收入下降。</li><li>Kyndryl分拆需要更多透明度。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>伊森·米勒/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) is a company in transition. Unfortunately for investors, the transition has been in place for the better part of a decade. Those turnaround efforts include investments in cloud computing and artificial intelligence and the divestiture of legacy businesses. While there are now signs of green shoots, it is yet to be seen as to whether the seeds sown have fallen on rocky ground.</p><p><blockquote>国际商业机器公司（IBM）是一家转型中的公司。不幸的是，对于投资者来说，这种转变已经持续了十年的大部分时间。这些扭亏为盈的努力包括对云计算和人工智能的投资以及剥离遗留业务。虽然现在有绿芽的迹象，但播下的种子是否落在岩石上还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Although the company has a rapidly growing business in hybrid cloud offerings, and a potential growth engine in quantum computing, it faces intense competition in the former industry and uncertain prospects in the latter. Most of the firm’s other businesses are in the doldrums, so IBM’s growth prospects are opaque.</p><p><blockquote>尽管该公司在混合云产品方面拥有快速增长的业务，并在量子计算方面拥有潜在的增长引擎，但它面临着前一个行业的激烈竞争和后一个行业的不确定前景。该公司的大多数其他业务都处于低迷状态，因此IBM的增长前景不明朗。</blockquote></p><p> What is certain is that as of today, IBM has a reasonable and diminishing debt load and strong free cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，截至今天，IBM的债务负担合理且不断减少，自由现金流强劲。</blockquote></p><p> Management is attempting to address growth concerns in part by focusing on the firm’s cloud offerings, while it spins off its managed infrastructure business. That company will be named Kyndryl. However, the debt which the new entity will shoulder, along with the portion of the current dividend that it will carry, has not been divulged.</p><p><blockquote>管理层正试图通过专注于公司的云产品来部分解决增长问题，同时剥离其托管基础设施业务。该公司将被命名为Kyndryl。然而，新实体将承担的债务以及其将承担的当前股息部分尚未透露。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recent Quarterly Results</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最近季度业绩</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM&nbsp;reported&nbsp;Q2 results last Monday. With non-GAAP EPS of $2.33, the company beat estimates by $0.04.</p><p><blockquote>IBM上周一公布了第二季度业绩。该公司的非GAAP每股收益为2.33美元，超出预期0.04美元。</blockquote></p><p> Revenue of $18.7 billion was flat when adjusted for currency and divestitures.</p><p><blockquote>经货币和资产剥离调整后，营收为187亿美元，持平。</blockquote></p><p> The negative side of the report had Systems revenue declining by 7%. However, this was largely due to the normal IBM Z mainframe cycle, down 13% year over year.</p><p><blockquote>该报告的负面影响是系统收入下降了7%。然而，这主要是由于正常的IBM Z大型机周期，同比下降13%。</blockquote></p><p> The global financing division, which represents a low single digit percentage of overall revenues, was down 9%. Global technology services, which represents roughly a third of overall revenue and will largely be spun off as Kyndryl, had flattish growth.</p><p><blockquote>全球融资部门在总收入中所占比例较低，下降了9%。全球技术服务约占总收入的三分之一，并将主要分拆为Kyndryl，但增长平缓。</blockquote></p><p> The positive side of the report had Cloud &amp; Cognitive Software cloud revenue up 29% and Global Business Services cloud revenue up 35%. Total cloud revenue of $27 billion increased by 15% over the last 12 months, while cloud revenue grew 13% in the quarter to $7.0 billion.</p><p><blockquote>该报告的积极一面是云和认知软件云收入增长了29%，全球商业服务云收入增长了35%。过去12个月，云总收入为270亿美元，增长了15%，而本季度云收入增长了13%，达到70亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Net cash from operating activities hit $17.7 billion, and adjusted free cash flow totaled $11 billion over the last 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>过去12个月，经营活动产生的净现金达到177亿美元，调整后的自由现金流总计110亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Since year-end 2020, the company has reduced debt by $6.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年底以来，该公司已减少债务64亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>2021年调整后自由现金流110亿至120亿美元的管理指南。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where IBM Stands Tall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM屹立不倒的地方</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM is viewed by many as at best a third rate IT company and at worst as a dinosaur, headed towards extinction.</p><p><blockquote>许多人认为IBM往好了说是一家三流IT公司，往坏了说是一只濒临灭绝的恐龙。</blockquote></p><p> It is evident that the company’s revenues have declined for years; however, to accurately assess the stock, investors must understand that IBM’s legacy businesses have many strengths.</p><p><blockquote>很明显，该公司的收入多年来一直在下降；然而，为了准确评估该股票，投资者必须了解IBM的传统业务有许多优势。</blockquote></p><p> For example, IBM is the world’s largest IT services company and the dominant provider of mainframes. Among the Fortune 50 companies, 47 are IBM clients.</p><p><blockquote>例如，IBM是世界上最大的IT服务公司，也是大型机的主要提供商。在财富50强公司中，有47家是IBM的客户。</blockquote></p><p> Half of the world’s wireless connections are handled by the firm.</p><p><blockquote>世界上一半的无线连接由该公司处理。</blockquote></p><p> IBM's mainframe systems process nearly 90% of the globe’s credit card transactions, and 97% of the world's largest banks rely on IBM products and services. Consequently, twenty-nine billion ATM transactions are processed annually using IBM systems.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的大型机系统处理全球近90%的信用卡交易，97%的全球最大银行依赖IBM的产品和服务。因此，每年使用IBM系统处理290亿笔ATM交易。</blockquote></p><p> Eight out of 10 global retailers rely on IBM products and services while 80% of the travel industry's reservations run through IBM systems. That results in 4 billion flight reservations being processed using the company’s IT services.</p><p><blockquote>十分之八的全球零售商依赖IBM的产品和服务，而80%的旅游业预订通过IBM系统进行。这导致使用该公司的IT服务处理40亿次航班预订。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ace4f1436fd2697c5ad266b5017e1dd\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"721\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Forbes</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：福布斯</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is evident that IBM has a massive customer base that provides large scale recurring revenues. In many cases, moving to competitors' offerings would mean risking the transfer of sensitive information, a move many are not willing to take.</p><p><blockquote>很明显，IBM拥有庞大的客户群，提供了大规模的经常性收入。在许多情况下，转向竞争对手的产品意味着冒着敏感信息转移的风险，而许多人不愿意采取这一举措。</blockquote></p><p> However, with the transition to cloud services and open source software, there is an increased adoption by firms of mix and match IT infrastructures. In turn, this is eroding IBM’s competitive advantage associated with customer switching costs.</p><p><blockquote>然而，随着向云服务和开源软件的过渡，越来越多的公司采用混合搭配的IT基础设施。反过来，这正在侵蚀IBM与客户转换成本相关的竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Sources Of Potential Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>潜在增长的来源</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Investors are generally aware of IBM's effort to drive growth through its hybrid cloud offerings. However, when questioned at JPMorgan’s recent investor conference, CFO Jim Kavanaugh&nbsp;provided insight&nbsp;into how hybrid cloud drives revenue in some of IBM’s other divisions.</p><p><blockquote>投资者普遍了解IBM通过其混合云产品推动增长的努力。然而，在摩根大通最近的投资者会议上，首席财务官吉姆·卡瓦诺（Jim Kavanaugh）就混合云如何推动IBM其他一些部门的收入提供了见解。</blockquote></p><p>   For every $1 (in business) we land on a hybrid cloud platform, we see $3 to $5 of software drag and $6 to $8 of services drag overall.  Of course, Kavanaugh is using drag to refer to increased revenue in software and services associated with adoption of IBM’s hybrid cloud. If Kavanaugh’s claims are accurate, that means every dollar spent on the company’s hybrid cloud platform translates into $9 to $13 in additional revenue from the firm’s software and services offerings.</p><p><blockquote>我们在混合云平台上每投入1美元（业务），我们就会看到3到5美元的软件拖累和6到8美元的服务拖累。当然，Kavanaugh使用drag来指的是与采用IBM混合云相关的软件和服务收入的增加。如果卡瓦诺的说法准确，这意味着在该公司混合云平台上花费的每一美元都可以从该公司的软件和服务产品中获得9至13美元的额外收入。</blockquote></p><p> Because hybrid cloud uses a mix of on-premises private cloud and public cloud services, it offers clients a degree of data privacy. This is of particular concern for customers in healthcare and financial services. Consequently, I would posit that IBM might have an advantage in competing with other hybrid cloud providers as it has extensive relationships within those industries.</p><p><blockquote>由于混合云混合使用内部私有云和公共云服务，因此它为客户提供了一定程度的数据隐私。这是医疗保健和金融服务客户特别关注的问题。因此，我认为IBM在与其他混合云提供商的竞争中可能具有优势，因为它在这些行业中拥有广泛的关系。</blockquote></p><p> I reviewed a variety of prognostications regarding projected growth rates for the hybrid cloud market. The most recent study, which also falls in the middle of other predictions, is by Mordor Intelligence. That firm&nbsp;forecasts&nbsp;a CAGR of 18.73% from 2021 through 2026.</p><p><blockquote>我回顾了关于混合云市场预计增长率的各种预测。最近的研究，也属于其他预测的中间，是由魔多情报局进行的。该公司预测2021年至2026年的复合年增长率为18.73%。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should be aware that the major operators in this space are Cisco (CSCO), Hewlett Packard (HPE), Amazon (AMZN), Citrix Systems (CTXS), and IBM.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该知道，该领域的主要运营商是思科(CSCO)、惠普(HPE)、亚马逊(AMZN)、思杰系统(CTXS)和IBM。</blockquote></p><p> The following chart provides a record of the firm’s total cloud growth over the last six quarters.</p><p><blockquote>下图提供了该公司过去六个季度的总云增长记录。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fc85156e70f6caf8ae809f76126a723\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"336\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Company reports / Chart by Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司报告/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Aside from cloud, there is another source of potential growth, although it is unlikely to materialize soon.</p><p><blockquote>除了云之外，还有另一个潜在增长的来源，尽管它不太可能很快实现。</blockquote></p><p> Early in 2019, IBM&nbsp;introduced&nbsp;the Q System One. IBM Q systems are the world's first quantum computer designed for scientific and commercial use.</p><p><blockquote>2019年初，IBM推出了Q System One。IBM Q systems是世界上第一台专为科学和商业用途而设计的量子计算机。</blockquote></p><p> Pardon the pun, but quantum computers represent a quantum leap in technology. Prescient And Strategic Intelligence&nbsp;forecasts&nbsp;a CAGR of 56% for the industry through 2030 with the quantum computer market share reaching nearly $65 billion.</p><p><blockquote>原谅我的双关语，但量子计算机代表了技术的巨大飞跃。Prescient And Strategic Intelligence预测，到2030年，该行业的CAGR将达到56%，量子计算机市场份额将达到近650亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> For additional insights regarding quantum computing and IBM’s position within that industry, I point you to&nbsp;my article, “IBM: Why My Eye Is Fixed On Big Blue.”</p><p><blockquote>有关量子计算和IBM在该行业中的地位的更多见解，我向您推荐我的文章“IBM：为什么我的眼睛盯着蓝色巨人”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Understanding Kyndryl</b></p><p><blockquote><b>了解Kyndryl</b></blockquote></p><p> Once&nbsp;Kyndryl&nbsp;is launched, it will have more than 90,000 employees and more than 4,600 customers in 115 countries. With a $60 billion services backlog, the new entity will begin with projected revenues of $19 billion. At twice the size of its closest competitor, the company will be the world’s largest managed infrastructure services provider.</p><p><blockquote>Kyndryl一旦上市，将在115个国家拥有9万多名员工和4600多家客户。新实体的服务积压量为600亿美元，预计收入为190亿美元。该公司的规模是最接近的竞争对手的两倍，将成为全球最大的托管基础设施服务提供商。</blockquote></p><p> The split will&nbsp;transform&nbsp;IBM from a company that pulls half of its revenue from services to a firm with its software and solutions businesses generating over half of its revenue on a recurring basis.</p><p><blockquote>此次分拆将使IBM从一家一半收入来自服务的公司转变为一家软件和解决方案业务经常性收入超过一半的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Global Business Services, which currently constitutes 22% of the company’s revenue, will&nbsp;account&nbsp;for over 40% of sales. Here it is important to note that the division grew revenue by 12% year over year in the last quarter.</p><p><blockquote>全球商业服务目前占公司收入的22%，将占销售额的40%以上。值得注意的是，该部门上季度的收入同比增长了12%。</blockquote></p><p> IBM will retain Red Hat and its solution provider business, the systems businesses, and its mission-critical public cloud service, and a software portfolio focused on big data, AI, and security.</p><p><blockquote>IBM将保留Red Hat及其解决方案提供商业务、系统业务、关键任务公共云服务，以及专注于大数据、人工智能和安全的软件组合。</blockquote></p><p> Initially, the two companies will each be the largest customer of the other.</p><p><blockquote>最初，两家公司将各自成为对方的最大客户。</blockquote></p><p> What remains to be known regarding the spinoff is how much debt each company will shoulder, and the share of the dividend that the companies will pay. Krishna stated the two companies will work together to sustain the current payout level.</p><p><blockquote>关于分拆，尚待了解的是每家公司将承担多少债务，以及公司将支付的股息份额。克里希纳表示，两家公司将共同努力维持目前的支付水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Has IBM Turned The Corner?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM转危为安了吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Anyone who follows IBM knows the company has experienced an extended period of poor results. The following chart provides a record of the firm’s quarterly FCF over the last fourteen quarters.</p><p><blockquote>任何关注IBM的人都知道该公司经历了长期的糟糕业绩。下图提供了该公司过去十四个季度的季度自由现金流记录。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60cc8b82052f97dd449205999ee30711\" tg-width=\"577\" tg-height=\"337\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Data from ycharts / chart by author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：数据来自ycharts/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While this is not proof positive that the company is back on track, the recent trend is at least encouraging.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这并不能证明该公司重回正轨，但最近的趋势至少令人鼓舞。</blockquote></p><p> In 2020, IBM generated $10.8 billion in free cash flow. Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021. This excludes $3 billion in structural impacts related to the Kyndryl spinoff.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，IBM产生了108亿美元的自由现金流。2021年调整后自由现金流110亿至120亿美元的管理指南。这不包括与Kyndryl分拆相关的30亿美元结构性影响。</blockquote></p><p> The CEO&nbsp;recently stated&nbsp;he expects IBM to generate $12 billion to $13 billion in FCF in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>这位首席执行官最近表示，他预计IBM将在2022年产生120亿至130亿美元的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Debt And Dividend</b></p><p><blockquote><b>债务和股息</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> While investors can rightfully complain of a variety of management moves over the years, the firm has maintained a reasonable debt profile while engaging in a number of acquisitions.</p><p><blockquote>虽然投资者可以理所当然地抱怨多年来的各种管理层举措，但该公司在进行多项收购的同时保持了合理的债务状况。</blockquote></p><p> The company has reduced the debt by roughly $18 billion since its peak in mid-2019. IBM maintains an investment level credit rating, and the following chart provides a record of the company’s progress paying down debt of late.</p><p><blockquote>自2019年年中达到峰值以来，该公司已将债务减少了约180亿美元。IBM维持投资级信用评级，下图记录了该公司最近偿还债务的进展。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b73e613157c486a5f5e8306546121971\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"720\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: IBM Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：IBM演示文稿</span></p></blockquote></p><p> IBM has a yield of 4.64%, a payout ratio a bit below 61%, and a 5 year dividend growth rate of 4.26%. As previously noted, following the spinoff of Kyndryl, the two companies will team to provide a payout equivalent to the current dividend.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的收益率为4.64%，派息率略低于61%，5年股息增长率为4.26%。如前所述，Kyndryl分拆后，两家公司将合作提供相当于当前股息的派息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is IBM Stock Overvalued?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM股票是否被高估？</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM shares trade for $141.13. The average 12 month price target of 8 analysts is $153.50. The price target of the 3 analysts rating the stock since the last earnings report is $151.33.</p><p><blockquote>IBM股价交易价格为141.13美元。8位分析师的平均12个月目标价为153.50美元。自上次收益报告以来，对该股进行评级的3位分析师的目标价为151.33美元。</blockquote></p><p> IBM has a P/E of 24.05x and a forward P/E of 17.67x. This compares to its five year averages of 16.42x and 13.25x respectively. It is well below the sector average which is in the low thirties for both metrics.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的市盈率为24.05倍，远期市盈率为17.67倍。相比之下，其五年平均值分别为16.42倍和13.25倍。这远低于行业平均水平，这两个指标都在三十左右。</blockquote></p><p> The 3 to 5 year PEG provided by Seeking Alpha Premium is 1.16x. Schwab calculates a PEG of 1.49x, and Yahoo does not provide a PEG ratio.</p><p><blockquote>Seeking Alpha Premium提供的3至5年期PEG为1.16倍。嘉信理财计算的PEG为1.49倍，雅虎没有提供PEG比率。</blockquote></p><p> I believe the current P/E ratios for the stock reflect investors anticipating increased growth for IBM once the spinoff is complete. The PEG ratios show the stock is reasonably valued.</p><p><blockquote>我相信该股目前的市盈率反映了投资者对分拆完成后IBM增长加速的预期。PEG比率显示该股票估值合理。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is IBM Stock A Good Long-Term Investment?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM股票是一项不错的长期投资吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM has an entrenched but evolving position among many of the largest companies on the globe. Unfortunately, the cloud, which is seen as the company’s primary avenue for growth, could also lead to a slow deterioration in some of the firm’s legacy businesses.</p><p><blockquote>IBM在全球许多最大的公司中有着根深蒂固但不断发展的地位。不幸的是，被视为该公司主要增长途径的云也可能导致该公司一些遗留业务的缓慢恶化。</blockquote></p><p> That the cloud business has been growing at a rapid pace is manifest: IBM can now boast of over 3,200 clients using the firm’s hybrid cloud platform. That is nearly four times the number just prior to the Red Hat acquisition.</p><p><blockquote>云业务一直在快速增长是显而易见的：IBM现在拥有超过3,200个客户使用该公司的混合云平台。这几乎是收购红帽之前的四倍。</blockquote></p><p> If management’s claims are accurate, the hybrid cloud platform will create robust growth in the software and services division’s revenues. When combined with the spinoff of Kyndryl’s slow growing managed infrastructure services business, it is reasonable to believe IBM will witness increased growth.</p><p><blockquote>如果管理层的说法准确，混合云平台将为软件和服务部门的收入带来强劲增长。结合Kyndryl缓慢增长的托管基础设施服务业务的分拆，有理由相信IBM将见证增长。</blockquote></p><p> IBM has a solid balance sheet, a robust yield, and when viewed using PEG ratios as a basis for valuing the stock, the shares are trading at a bit of a discount.</p><p><blockquote>IBM拥有稳健的资产负债表和强劲的收益率，当使用PEG比率作为股票估值的基础时，该股的交易价格略有折扣。</blockquote></p><p> All considered, I rate IBM as a BUY.</p><p><blockquote>综合考虑，我对IBM的评级为买入。</blockquote></p><p> I think the worst case short to mid-term scenario is that the company experiences slow growth while investors collect a rather robust dividend.</p><p><blockquote>我认为中短期最糟糕的情况是公司增长缓慢，而投资者则获得相当强劲的股息。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440996-is-ibm-stock-undervalued-overvalued\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IBM":"IBM"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440996-is-ibm-stock-undervalued-overvalued","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176552691","content_text":"Summary\n\nIBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.\nPrior to Q1, IBM posted declining revenue for four consecutive quarters, and 30 of the last 34 quarters.\nMore transparency is needed regarding the Kyndryl spinoff.\n\nEthan Miller/Getty Images News\nInternational Business Machines Corporation (IBM) is a company in transition. Unfortunately for investors, the transition has been in place for the better part of a decade. Those turnaround efforts include investments in cloud computing and artificial intelligence and the divestiture of legacy businesses. While there are now signs of green shoots, it is yet to be seen as to whether the seeds sown have fallen on rocky ground.\nAlthough the company has a rapidly growing business in hybrid cloud offerings, and a potential growth engine in quantum computing, it faces intense competition in the former industry and uncertain prospects in the latter. Most of the firm’s other businesses are in the doldrums, so IBM’s growth prospects are opaque.\nWhat is certain is that as of today, IBM has a reasonable and diminishing debt load and strong free cash flow.\nManagement is attempting to address growth concerns in part by focusing on the firm’s cloud offerings, while it spins off its managed infrastructure business. That company will be named Kyndryl. However, the debt which the new entity will shoulder, along with the portion of the current dividend that it will carry, has not been divulged.\nRecent Quarterly Results\nIBM reported Q2 results last Monday. With non-GAAP EPS of $2.33, the company beat estimates by $0.04.\nRevenue of $18.7 billion was flat when adjusted for currency and divestitures.\nThe negative side of the report had Systems revenue declining by 7%. However, this was largely due to the normal IBM Z mainframe cycle, down 13% year over year.\nThe global financing division, which represents a low single digit percentage of overall revenues, was down 9%. Global technology services, which represents roughly a third of overall revenue and will largely be spun off as Kyndryl, had flattish growth.\nThe positive side of the report had Cloud & Cognitive Software cloud revenue up 29% and Global Business Services cloud revenue up 35%. Total cloud revenue of $27 billion increased by 15% over the last 12 months, while cloud revenue grew 13% in the quarter to $7.0 billion.\nNet cash from operating activities hit $17.7 billion, and adjusted free cash flow totaled $11 billion over the last 12 months.\nSince year-end 2020, the company has reduced debt by $6.4 billion.\nManagement guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021.\nWhere IBM Stands Tall\nIBM is viewed by many as at best a third rate IT company and at worst as a dinosaur, headed towards extinction.\nIt is evident that the company’s revenues have declined for years; however, to accurately assess the stock, investors must understand that IBM’s legacy businesses have many strengths.\nFor example, IBM is the world’s largest IT services company and the dominant provider of mainframes. Among the Fortune 50 companies, 47 are IBM clients.\nHalf of the world’s wireless connections are handled by the firm.\nIBM's mainframe systems process nearly 90% of the globe’s credit card transactions, and 97% of the world's largest banks rely on IBM products and services. Consequently, twenty-nine billion ATM transactions are processed annually using IBM systems.\nEight out of 10 global retailers rely on IBM products and services while 80% of the travel industry's reservations run through IBM systems. That results in 4 billion flight reservations being processed using the company’s IT services.\nSource: Forbes\nIt is evident that IBM has a massive customer base that provides large scale recurring revenues. In many cases, moving to competitors' offerings would mean risking the transfer of sensitive information, a move many are not willing to take.\nHowever, with the transition to cloud services and open source software, there is an increased adoption by firms of mix and match IT infrastructures. In turn, this is eroding IBM’s competitive advantage associated with customer switching costs.\nThe Sources Of Potential Growth\nInvestors are generally aware of IBM's effort to drive growth through its hybrid cloud offerings. However, when questioned at JPMorgan’s recent investor conference, CFO Jim Kavanaugh provided insight into how hybrid cloud drives revenue in some of IBM’s other divisions.\n\n For every $1 (in business) we land on a hybrid cloud platform, we see $3 to $5 of software drag and $6 to $8 of services drag overall.\n\nOf course, Kavanaugh is using drag to refer to increased revenue in software and services associated with adoption of IBM’s hybrid cloud. If Kavanaugh’s claims are accurate, that means every dollar spent on the company’s hybrid cloud platform translates into $9 to $13 in additional revenue from the firm’s software and services offerings.\nBecause hybrid cloud uses a mix of on-premises private cloud and public cloud services, it offers clients a degree of data privacy. This is of particular concern for customers in healthcare and financial services. Consequently, I would posit that IBM might have an advantage in competing with other hybrid cloud providers as it has extensive relationships within those industries.\nI reviewed a variety of prognostications regarding projected growth rates for the hybrid cloud market. The most recent study, which also falls in the middle of other predictions, is by Mordor Intelligence. That firm forecasts a CAGR of 18.73% from 2021 through 2026.\nInvestors should be aware that the major operators in this space are Cisco (CSCO), Hewlett Packard (HPE), Amazon (AMZN), Citrix Systems (CTXS), and IBM.\nThe following chart provides a record of the firm’s total cloud growth over the last six quarters.\nSource: Company reports / Chart by Author\nAside from cloud, there is another source of potential growth, although it is unlikely to materialize soon.\nEarly in 2019, IBM introduced the Q System One. IBM Q systems are the world's first quantum computer designed for scientific and commercial use.\nPardon the pun, but quantum computers represent a quantum leap in technology. Prescient And Strategic Intelligence forecasts a CAGR of 56% for the industry through 2030 with the quantum computer market share reaching nearly $65 billion.\nFor additional insights regarding quantum computing and IBM’s position within that industry, I point you to my article, “IBM: Why My Eye Is Fixed On Big Blue.”\nUnderstanding Kyndryl\nOnce Kyndryl is launched, it will have more than 90,000 employees and more than 4,600 customers in 115 countries. With a $60 billion services backlog, the new entity will begin with projected revenues of $19 billion. At twice the size of its closest competitor, the company will be the world’s largest managed infrastructure services provider.\nThe split will transform IBM from a company that pulls half of its revenue from services to a firm with its software and solutions businesses generating over half of its revenue on a recurring basis.\nGlobal Business Services, which currently constitutes 22% of the company’s revenue, will account for over 40% of sales. Here it is important to note that the division grew revenue by 12% year over year in the last quarter.\nIBM will retain Red Hat and its solution provider business, the systems businesses, and its mission-critical public cloud service, and a software portfolio focused on big data, AI, and security.\nInitially, the two companies will each be the largest customer of the other.\nWhat remains to be known regarding the spinoff is how much debt each company will shoulder, and the share of the dividend that the companies will pay. Krishna stated the two companies will work together to sustain the current payout level.\nHas IBM Turned The Corner?\nAnyone who follows IBM knows the company has experienced an extended period of poor results. The following chart provides a record of the firm’s quarterly FCF over the last fourteen quarters.\nSource: Data from ycharts / chart by author\nWhile this is not proof positive that the company is back on track, the recent trend is at least encouraging.\nIn 2020, IBM generated $10.8 billion in free cash flow. Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021. This excludes $3 billion in structural impacts related to the Kyndryl spinoff.\nThe CEO recently stated he expects IBM to generate $12 billion to $13 billion in FCF in 2022.\nDebt And Dividend\nWhile investors can rightfully complain of a variety of management moves over the years, the firm has maintained a reasonable debt profile while engaging in a number of acquisitions.\nThe company has reduced the debt by roughly $18 billion since its peak in mid-2019. IBM maintains an investment level credit rating, and the following chart provides a record of the company’s progress paying down debt of late.\nSource: IBM Presentation\nIBM has a yield of 4.64%, a payout ratio a bit below 61%, and a 5 year dividend growth rate of 4.26%. As previously noted, following the spinoff of Kyndryl, the two companies will team to provide a payout equivalent to the current dividend.\nIs IBM Stock Overvalued?\nIBM shares trade for $141.13. The average 12 month price target of 8 analysts is $153.50. The price target of the 3 analysts rating the stock since the last earnings report is $151.33.\nIBM has a P/E of 24.05x and a forward P/E of 17.67x. This compares to its five year averages of 16.42x and 13.25x respectively. It is well below the sector average which is in the low thirties for both metrics.\nThe 3 to 5 year PEG provided by Seeking Alpha Premium is 1.16x. Schwab calculates a PEG of 1.49x, and Yahoo does not provide a PEG ratio.\nI believe the current P/E ratios for the stock reflect investors anticipating increased growth for IBM once the spinoff is complete. The PEG ratios show the stock is reasonably valued.\nIs IBM Stock A Good Long-Term Investment?\nIBM has an entrenched but evolving position among many of the largest companies on the globe. Unfortunately, the cloud, which is seen as the company’s primary avenue for growth, could also lead to a slow deterioration in some of the firm’s legacy businesses.\nThat the cloud business has been growing at a rapid pace is manifest: IBM can now boast of over 3,200 clients using the firm’s hybrid cloud platform. That is nearly four times the number just prior to the Red Hat acquisition.\nIf management’s claims are accurate, the hybrid cloud platform will create robust growth in the software and services division’s revenues. When combined with the spinoff of Kyndryl’s slow growing managed infrastructure services business, it is reasonable to believe IBM will witness increased growth.\nIBM has a solid balance sheet, a robust yield, and when viewed using PEG ratios as a basis for valuing the stock, the shares are trading at a bit of a discount.\nAll considered, I rate IBM as a BUY.\nI think the worst case short to mid-term scenario is that the company experiences slow growth while investors collect a rather robust dividend.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"IBM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":427,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":837821502,"gmtCreate":1629876266406,"gmtModify":1631891769762,"author":{"id":"3582001642809284","authorId":"3582001642809284","name":"377tkr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25cbfadab64a300119ffe30a37937ff2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582001642809284","authorIdStr":"3582001642809284"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Upside fast, downside will be harder","listText":"Upside fast, downside will be harder","text":"Upside fast, downside will be harder","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/837821502","repostId":"2162087564","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":931,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":180619895,"gmtCreate":1623201302117,"gmtModify":1631885596552,"author":{"id":"3582001642809284","authorId":"3582001642809284","name":"377tkr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25cbfadab64a300119ffe30a37937ff2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582001642809284","authorIdStr":"3582001642809284"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C6L.SI\">$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$</a>Time frame for holding is too long.Condider other stocks","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C6L.SI\">$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$</a>Time frame for holding is too long.Condider other stocks","text":"$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$Time frame for holding is too long.Condider other stocks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/180619895","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1223,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":104831293,"gmtCreate":1620371953412,"gmtModify":1631884832631,"author":{"id":"3582001642809284","authorId":"3582001642809284","name":"377tkr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25cbfadab64a300119ffe30a37937ff2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582001642809284","authorIdStr":"3582001642809284"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V03.SI\">$VENTURE CORPORATION LIMITED(V03.SI)$</a>Waiting","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V03.SI\">$VENTURE CORPORATION LIMITED(V03.SI)$</a>Waiting","text":"$VENTURE CORPORATION LIMITED(V03.SI)$Waiting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/104831293","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":590,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":103954825,"gmtCreate":1619744761167,"gmtModify":1634210251410,"author":{"id":"3582001642809284","authorId":"3582001642809284","name":"377tkr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25cbfadab64a300119ffe30a37937ff2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582001642809284","authorIdStr":"3582001642809284"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Waoh!!! 1 billion $$$","listText":"Waoh!!! 1 billion $$$","text":"Waoh!!! 1 billion $$$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/103954825","repostId":"2131534612","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":535,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":842078983,"gmtCreate":1636122703565,"gmtModify":1636122778419,"author":{"id":"3582001642809284","authorId":"3582001642809284","name":"377tkr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25cbfadab64a300119ffe30a37937ff2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582001642809284","authorIdStr":"3582001642809284"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Get ready?","listText":"Get ready?","text":"Get ready?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/842078983","repostId":"2181743825","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3400,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":805162999,"gmtCreate":1627866051611,"gmtModify":1633755842827,"author":{"id":"3582001642809284","authorId":"3582001642809284","name":"377tkr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25cbfadab64a300119ffe30a37937ff2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582001642809284","authorIdStr":"3582001642809284"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"All got profit!","listText":"All got profit!","text":"All got profit!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/805162999","repostId":"1162208746","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1162208746","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1627865676,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1162208746?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-02 08:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Pfizer, Moderna Hike Prices Of Vaccine Shots Supplied To EU: Report<blockquote>辉瑞和Moderna提高向欧盟供应的疫苗价格：报告</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162208746","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Pfizer, Inc. and Moderna, Inc., which have already minted billions of dollars from their respective ","content":"<p><b>Pfizer, Inc.</b>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>Moderna, Inc.</b>, which have already minted billions of dollars from their respective COVID-19 vaccines, remain poised to earn more.</p><p><blockquote><b>辉瑞公司。</b>和<b>莫德纳公司。</b>这些公司已经从各自的COVID-19疫苗中赚取了数十亿美元，并且仍准备赚取更多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What Happened:</b>Pfizer and Moderna have both renegotiated their vaccine supply contract with the European Union, the FT reported Sunday.</p><p><blockquote><b>发生了什么：</b>据英国《金融时报》周日报道，辉瑞和Moderna均已与欧盟重新谈判疫苗供应合同。</blockquote></p><p> The contract terms for the supply of up to 2.1 billion vaccine shots were revised after the release of the Phase 3 data, the report said. Late-stage study of the mRNA vaccine Pfizer is co-developing with&nbsp;<b>BioNTech SE</b>&nbsp;showed vaccine efficacy of 95%, while a similar class of vaccine developed by Moderna boasted vaccine efficacy of 94.1%.</p><p><blockquote>报道称，在第三阶段数据发布后，对供应多达21亿剂疫苗的合同条款进行了修订。辉瑞正在与合作开发的mRNA疫苗的后期研究<b>BioNTech SE</b>显示疫苗效力为95%，而Moderna开发的同类疫苗的疫苗效力为94.1%。</blockquote></p><p> In comparison,<b>Johnson &amp; Johnson's</b>&nbsp;single-dose shot, which is authorized for use in the U.S., showed overall efficacy of 72%.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，<b>强生公司</b>在美国被授权使用的单剂量注射显示出72%的总体疗效。</blockquote></p><p> <b>AstraZeneca plc's</b>&nbsp;COVID-19 vaccine made from inactivated adenovirus was found to be 76% effective at reducing the risk of symptomatic disease, 15 days or more after receiving two doses.</p><p><blockquote><b>阿斯利康公司的</b>发现由灭活腺病毒制成的新冠肺炎疫苗在接受两剂疫苗后15天或更长时间，在降低症状性疾病风险方面有76%的有效性。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, authorized vaccines from J&amp;J and AstraZeneca have been linked to stray&nbsp;incidences of severe blood clots.</p><p><blockquote>此外，强生和阿斯利康的授权疫苗与严重血栓的零星发病率有关。</blockquote></p><p> Pfizer and&nbsp;Moderna&nbsp;have managed to expand the age range of&nbsp;their vaccines to include adolescents and they are also running trials on pediatric population. The companies are working on booster doses that may prove effective against variants and also on variant-specific vaccines.</p><p><blockquote>辉瑞和Moderna已经成功扩大了疫苗的年龄范围，将青少年包括在内，他们还在儿科人群中进行试验。这些公司正在研究可能证明对变异有效的加强剂量，以及变异特异性疫苗。</blockquote></p><p> The FT report states that Pfizer has increased the price of its vaccine from the originally contracted amount of 15.50 euros ($18.39) to 19.50 euros per dose. The Moderna shot&nbsp;price has been increased from $22.60 to $25.50.</p><p><blockquote>英国《金融时报》报道称，辉瑞已将其疫苗价格从最初的合同金额15.50欧元（18.39美元）提高到每剂19.50欧元。Moderna shot的价格从22.60美元提高到25.50美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why It's Important:</b>Pfizer and Moderna are able to dictate terms, as the world still grapples with the novel coronavirus, especially with the emergence of variants.</p><p><blockquote><b>为什么它很重要：</b>辉瑞和Moderna能够决定条款，因为世界仍在努力应对新型冠状病毒，特别是变种的出现。</blockquote></p><p> The EU is also under pressure to procure more supplies, as countries within the block have decried unfair vaccine distribution among member nations, the FT reported.</p><p><blockquote>据英国《金融时报》报道，欧盟也面临着采购更多供应的压力，因为欧盟内部国家谴责成员国之间疫苗分配不公平。</blockquote></p><p> Pfizer's second-quarter results released last week showed that the pharma giant clocked in COVID-19 vaccine revenues of roughly $8 billion in the second quarter. The company also raised its vaccine revenue forecast for 2021 from $26 billion to $33.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>辉瑞上周发布的第二季度业绩显示，这家制药巨头第二季度的COVID-19疫苗收入约为80亿美元。该公司还将2021年的疫苗收入预期从260亿美元上调至335亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Pfizer, Moderna Hike Prices Of Vaccine Shots Supplied To EU: Report<blockquote>辉瑞和Moderna提高向欧盟供应的疫苗价格：报告</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPfizer, Moderna Hike Prices Of Vaccine Shots Supplied To EU: Report<blockquote>辉瑞和Moderna提高向欧盟供应的疫苗价格：报告</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-02 08:54</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Pfizer, Inc.</b>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>Moderna, Inc.</b>, which have already minted billions of dollars from their respective COVID-19 vaccines, remain poised to earn more.</p><p><blockquote><b>辉瑞公司。</b>和<b>莫德纳公司。</b>这些公司已经从各自的COVID-19疫苗中赚取了数十亿美元，并且仍准备赚取更多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What Happened:</b>Pfizer and Moderna have both renegotiated their vaccine supply contract with the European Union, the FT reported Sunday.</p><p><blockquote><b>发生了什么：</b>据英国《金融时报》周日报道，辉瑞和Moderna均已与欧盟重新谈判疫苗供应合同。</blockquote></p><p> The contract terms for the supply of up to 2.1 billion vaccine shots were revised after the release of the Phase 3 data, the report said. Late-stage study of the mRNA vaccine Pfizer is co-developing with&nbsp;<b>BioNTech SE</b>&nbsp;showed vaccine efficacy of 95%, while a similar class of vaccine developed by Moderna boasted vaccine efficacy of 94.1%.</p><p><blockquote>报道称，在第三阶段数据发布后，对供应多达21亿剂疫苗的合同条款进行了修订。辉瑞正在与合作开发的mRNA疫苗的后期研究<b>BioNTech SE</b>显示疫苗效力为95%，而Moderna开发的同类疫苗的疫苗效力为94.1%。</blockquote></p><p> In comparison,<b>Johnson &amp; Johnson's</b>&nbsp;single-dose shot, which is authorized for use in the U.S., showed overall efficacy of 72%.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，<b>强生公司</b>在美国被授权使用的单剂量注射显示出72%的总体疗效。</blockquote></p><p> <b>AstraZeneca plc's</b>&nbsp;COVID-19 vaccine made from inactivated adenovirus was found to be 76% effective at reducing the risk of symptomatic disease, 15 days or more after receiving two doses.</p><p><blockquote><b>阿斯利康公司的</b>发现由灭活腺病毒制成的新冠肺炎疫苗在接受两剂疫苗后15天或更长时间，在降低症状性疾病风险方面有76%的有效性。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, authorized vaccines from J&amp;J and AstraZeneca have been linked to stray&nbsp;incidences of severe blood clots.</p><p><blockquote>此外，强生和阿斯利康的授权疫苗与严重血栓的零星发病率有关。</blockquote></p><p> Pfizer and&nbsp;Moderna&nbsp;have managed to expand the age range of&nbsp;their vaccines to include adolescents and they are also running trials on pediatric population. The companies are working on booster doses that may prove effective against variants and also on variant-specific vaccines.</p><p><blockquote>辉瑞和Moderna已经成功扩大了疫苗的年龄范围，将青少年包括在内，他们还在儿科人群中进行试验。这些公司正在研究可能证明对变异有效的加强剂量，以及变异特异性疫苗。</blockquote></p><p> The FT report states that Pfizer has increased the price of its vaccine from the originally contracted amount of 15.50 euros ($18.39) to 19.50 euros per dose. The Moderna shot&nbsp;price has been increased from $22.60 to $25.50.</p><p><blockquote>英国《金融时报》报道称，辉瑞已将其疫苗价格从最初的合同金额15.50欧元（18.39美元）提高到每剂19.50欧元。Moderna shot的价格从22.60美元提高到25.50美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why It's Important:</b>Pfizer and Moderna are able to dictate terms, as the world still grapples with the novel coronavirus, especially with the emergence of variants.</p><p><blockquote><b>为什么它很重要：</b>辉瑞和Moderna能够决定条款，因为世界仍在努力应对新型冠状病毒，特别是变种的出现。</blockquote></p><p> The EU is also under pressure to procure more supplies, as countries within the block have decried unfair vaccine distribution among member nations, the FT reported.</p><p><blockquote>据英国《金融时报》报道，欧盟也面临着采购更多供应的压力，因为欧盟内部国家谴责成员国之间疫苗分配不公平。</blockquote></p><p> Pfizer's second-quarter results released last week showed that the pharma giant clocked in COVID-19 vaccine revenues of roughly $8 billion in the second quarter. The company also raised its vaccine revenue forecast for 2021 from $26 billion to $33.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>辉瑞上周发布的第二季度业绩显示，这家制药巨头第二季度的COVID-19疫苗收入约为80亿美元。该公司还将2021年的疫苗收入预期从260亿美元上调至335亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PFE":"辉瑞","MRNA":"Moderna, Inc."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162208746","content_text":"Pfizer, Inc. and Moderna, Inc., which have already minted billions of dollars from their respective COVID-19 vaccines, remain poised to earn more.\nWhat Happened:Pfizer and Moderna have both renegotiated their vaccine supply contract with the European Union, the FT reported Sunday.\nThe contract terms for the supply of up to 2.1 billion vaccine shots were revised after the release of the Phase 3 data, the report said. Late-stage study of the mRNA vaccine Pfizer is co-developing with BioNTech SE showed vaccine efficacy of 95%, while a similar class of vaccine developed by Moderna boasted vaccine efficacy of 94.1%.\nIn comparison,Johnson & Johnson's single-dose shot, which is authorized for use in the U.S., showed overall efficacy of 72%.\nAstraZeneca plc's COVID-19 vaccine made from inactivated adenovirus was found to be 76% effective at reducing the risk of symptomatic disease, 15 days or more after receiving two doses.\nAdditionally, authorized vaccines from J&J and AstraZeneca have been linked to stray incidences of severe blood clots.\nPfizer and Moderna have managed to expand the age range of their vaccines to include adolescents and they are also running trials on pediatric population. The companies are working on booster doses that may prove effective against variants and also on variant-specific vaccines.\nThe FT report states that Pfizer has increased the price of its vaccine from the originally contracted amount of 15.50 euros ($18.39) to 19.50 euros per dose. The Moderna shot price has been increased from $22.60 to $25.50.\nWhy It's Important:Pfizer and Moderna are able to dictate terms, as the world still grapples with the novel coronavirus, especially with the emergence of variants.\nThe EU is also under pressure to procure more supplies, as countries within the block have decried unfair vaccine distribution among member nations, the FT reported.\nPfizer's second-quarter results released last week showed that the pharma giant clocked in COVID-19 vaccine revenues of roughly $8 billion in the second quarter. The company also raised its vaccine revenue forecast for 2021 from $26 billion to $33.5 billion.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PFE":0.9,"MRNA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":461,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}