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2021-06-19

Wow

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2021-07-29

Ok

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2021-07-12

Hmm

Goldman Has Three Questions For Companies During Q2 Earnings Season<blockquote>高盛在第二季度财报季向公司提出了三个问题</blockquote>

2021-07-10

Hmm

On Wall Street, Slow Is the Way to Go - Just Ask a Real Trader<blockquote>在华尔街，缓慢是正确的做法——问问真正的交易员就知道了</blockquote>

2021-07-06

Hmm

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2021-06-27

Hmm

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2021-06-25

Wow

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2021-07-03

Ohh

Can Alibaba Turn Around Its Woes in the Second Half of 2021?<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW能否在2021年下半年扭转颓势？</blockquote>

2021-06-23

Ohh

US Services Sector Unexpectedly Plunges In June As Manufacturing Survey Hits Record High<blockquote>制造业调查创历史新高，美国6月服务业意外暴跌</blockquote>

2021-06-23

Sad

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146197121","repostId":"1129204116","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129204116","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626053358,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1129204116?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-12 09:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman Has Three Questions For Companies During Q2 Earnings Season<blockquote>高盛在第二季度财报季向公司提出了三个问题</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129204116","media":"zerohedge","summary":"2Q earnings season kicks off next week when the big banks kick off reporting as usual, and consensus","content":"<p>2Q earnings season kicks off next week when the big banks kick off reporting as usual, and consensus expects 2Q EPS growth of 61% year/year, driven by a combination of base effect, 22% sales growth and 256 bps of net margin expansion to 11.1% even though the median stock is forecast to grow EPS by a more modest 24%. Compare this to one year ago, when S&amp;P 500 EPS fell by 32% as the pandemic sparked a sharp recession. Cyclical Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, and Materials sectors are forecast to lead the index in EPS growth.</p><p><blockquote>第二季度财报季将于下周拉开帷幕，届时各大银行将照常发布财报，市场普遍预计第二季度每股收益同比增长 61%，这得益于基数效应、22% 的销售增长和 256 个基点的净利润率扩张至 11.1%，尽管预计股票中值每股收益将增长较为温和的 24%。相比之下，一年前，由于疫情引发严重衰退，标普500每股收益下降了 32%。周期性工业、非必需消费品和材料行业预计将引领该指数的每股收益增长。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97d96a80eab68f78b39d83abd789745e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"336\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> In 2Q 2020, Brent crude traded at an average of $33/bbl and Energy stocks posted an aggregate net loss. Oil prices averaged $69/bblin 2Q and Energy firms are expected to return to profitability.</p><p><blockquote>2020年第二季度，布伦特原油平均交易价格为33美元/桶，能源股出现总净亏损。第二季度油价平均为69美元/桶，能源公司预计将恢复盈利。</blockquote></p><p> Like last quarter, Financials are expected to be the primary driver of S&amp;P 500 EPS growth. In 1Q, Financials represented $3 of the total $9 EPS beat versus consensus expectations.<b>Financials EPS are forecast to grow by 116% in 2Q and account for 25% of S&amp;P 500 EPS growth.</b>Most banks analysts expect results to come in largely in line with consensus after adjusting for reserve releases. Capital markets activity has normalized following the strong pace in 2020 and 1Q 2021. However,<b>large reserve releases will boost EPS for the third quarter in a row and could drive up to 18% EPS uplift for Banks by year-end.</b>Though investors are not likely to reward these beats outright since releases are non-recurring, analysts expect that the market will pay for the capital return that could result from the earnings tailwind and the recent CCAR results.</p><p><blockquote>与上一季度一样，金融业预计将成为标普500每股收益增长的主要驱动力。第一季度，金融股占 9 美元每股收益总额的 3 美元，超出了普遍预期。<b>预计第二季度金融每股收益将增长 116%，占标普500每股收益增长的 25%。</b>大多数银行分析师预计，在调整准备金释放后，业绩将基本符合共识。继 2020 年和 2021 年第一季度的强劲势头之后，资本市场活动已恢复正常。然而，<b>大量准备金释放将连续第三个季度提振每股收益，并可能推动银行到年底每股收益增长高达 18%。</b>尽管投资者不太可能直接奖励这些节拍，因为发布不是经常性的，但分析师预计市场将为盈利顺风和最近的 CCAR 业绩可能带来的资本回报买单。</blockquote></p><p> Another notable point:<b>while consensus expects S&amp;P 500 EPS to grow by 61%, the median stock is only forecast to grow earnings by 24%.</b></p><p><blockquote>另一个值得注意的点：<b>虽然普遍预计标普500每股收益将增长 61%，但该股的盈利预计中位数仅增长 24%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06b7ce6f61cb168c376424758fc9c5f0\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"326\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The greater rebound in aggregate earnings is largely a function of the base effect, or the sharper decline in earnings in 2020; the median S&amp;P 500 stock saw its EPS fall by just 12% year/year in 2Q 2020 compared with the 32% decline in aggregate earnings.<b>The five largest stocks in the index (FB, AMZN, AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL) account for 22% of market cap and 14% of S&amp;P 500 2Q 2021 EPS.</b>Despite last year’s acute 2Q economic contraction, these firms actually posted average EPS growth of 38% and are still expected to grow earnings by an average of 52% in 2Q 2021.</p><p><blockquote>总盈利的更大反弹在很大程度上是基数效应的函数，或者是2020年盈利更大幅度下降的函数；2020 年第二季度，标普500股票的每股收益中值仅同比下降 12%，而总收益则下降了 32%。<b>该指数中最大的五只股票（FB、AMZN、AAPL、MSFT、GOOGL）占标普500 2021 年第二季度每股收益的 22% 和 14%。</b>尽管去年第二季度经济急剧萎缩，但这些公司的平均每股收益增长率为 38%，预计 2021 年第二季度的盈利仍将平均增长 52%。</blockquote></p><p> In his preview of Q2 earnings season, Goldman's chief equity strategist David Kostin -<b>who expects the S&amp;P to close the year at 4,300 or -0.5% lower from Friday's record close</b>- focuses on three questions for managements this earnings season:</p><p><blockquote>高盛首席股票策略师 David Kostin 在第二季度财报季预览中表示 -<b>世卫组织预计标准普尔今年收于 4,300 点，较周五创纪录的收盘价下跌 -0.5%</b>- 本财报季重点关注管理层的三个问题：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>How will firms preserve profit margins amid input cost pressures?</li>  <li>How will companies prioritize their cash spending as balance sheets recover?</li>  <li>How does ongoing policy uncertainty affect the business outlook? Rates have plunged and high “quality” themes are outperforming.</li> </ol> <i>Digging a little deeper</i></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>在投入成本压力下，企业将如何保持利润率？</li><li>随着资产负债表的恢复，公司将如何优先考虑现金支出？</li><li>持续的政策不确定性如何影响业务前景？费率大幅下降，高 “质量 ”主题的表现优于市场。</li></ol><i>再深入一点</i></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>1. How will companies preserve margins amid input cost pressures?</b>S&amp;P 500 margins notched a record high of 11.9% in&nbsp; 1Q 2021, though investors remain focused on the forward margin outlook given rising input costs.<b>Global shipping woes, raw material inflation as well as acute shortages in both labor and semiconductors have combined to increase costs for companies across the by raising prices and passing higher input costs to their customers.</b>During Q1 calls, many companies discussed price increases and this trend will likely continue during 2Q earnings. Alternatively, with SG&amp;A as a share of sales elevated versus history, companies can also preserve margins through cost cutting. As an example, General Mills announced last week that it faces some of the highest costs in a decade and will implement a mix of both cost cuts and price increases.</li>  <li><b>2. Investors have started to reward companies with attractive margin profiles.</b>According to Goldman, profit margins are the second most important driver of company valuations today, behind only equity duration. The bank's sector-neutral factor of stocks with the highest vs. lowest profit margins has also started to outperform.<i>Other “quality” factors such as strong vs. weak balance sheets and high vs. low returns on capital have also inflected higher since early June.</i></li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c48adec9ce9ac7f02c3a669e37e358e4\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"350\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>1. 在投入成本压力下，企业将如何保持利润率？</b>2021 年第一季度，标普500利润率创下 11.9% 的历史新高，但鉴于投入成本上升，投资者仍关注未来利润率前景。<b>全球航运困境、原材料通货膨胀以及劳动力和半导体的严重短缺，通过提高价格并将更高的投入成本转嫁给客户，增加了各地公司的成本。</b>在第一季度评级期间，许多公司讨论了价格上涨，这一趋势可能会在第二季度财报期间继续下去。或者，随着 SG&amp;A 在销售额中的份额比历史有所增加，公司还可以通过削减成本来保持利润率。例如，通用磨坊上周宣布，它面临着十年来最高的一些成本，并将实施削减成本和提价相结合的措施。</li><li><b>2. 投资者已经开始奖励具有吸引力的利润率概况的公司。</b>高盛表示，利润率是当今公司估值的第二大驱动因素，仅次于股权存续期。该银行利润率最高与最低的股票的行业中立因素也开始跑赢大盘。<i>自 6 月初以来，其他 “质量 ”因素，如资产负债表强弱、资本回报率高与低，也出现了波动。</i></li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>3. How will companies prioritize their cash spending as balance sheets recover?</b>Both aggregate and median S&amp;P 500 cash / assets ratios have rebounded and now stand at record levels, driven in part by record high corporate bond and follow-on equity issuance during the last 18 months. And while leverage remains elevated versus history, it has been falling as corporate profits have started to improve. Info Tech and Consumer Discretionary hold the highest cash / asset ratios of any sectors and account for 43% of total S&amp;P 500 ex-Financials cash.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7c869205feb07f0e0dae0023005dbd0\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"350\">For what it's worth, Goldman expects capex will represent the largest share of S&amp;P 500 cash use in 2021, but forecasts the fastest year/year growth will be in cash M&amp;A and share buybacks. After a 10% decline in cash spending in 2020, the bank forecasts that high cash balances, anemic yields as well as strong economic and earnings growth will combine to drive 19% growth in cash spending in 2021 ($2.8 trillion) and 6% in 2022 ($3 trillion). Investing for growth (capex, R&amp;D, and cash M&amp;A) should account for 55% of total cash spending in 2021.<b>High cash balances, record buyback authorizations, and excess capital for Financials post-CCAR should also drive a 35% rebound in buybacks in 2021.</b>Indeed, data from the bank's buybacks desk show that US<b>corporates have authorized $627 billion in buybacks YTD, the second-fastest pace on record</b>(only behind the tax reform aided level in 2018) and 155% above 2020 levels</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>3. 随着资产负债表的恢复，公司将如何优先考虑现金支出？</b>标普500现金/资产比率的总体和中位数均已反弹，目前处于创纪录水平，部分原因是过去 18 个月创纪录的高位公司债券和后续股票发行。尽管杠杆率与历史相比仍然较高，但随着企业利润开始改善，杠杆率一直在下降。信息技术和非必需消费品的现金/资产比率是所有行业中最高的，占标普500除金融外现金总额的43%。</li></ul>无论如何，高盛预计资本支出将在2021年占标普500现金使用的最大份额，但预测同比增长最快的将是现金并购和股票回购。在 2020 年现金支出下降 10% 后，该银行预测，高现金余额、低收益率以及强劲的经济和盈利增长将共同推动 2021 年现金支出增长 19%（2.8 万亿美元），2022 年增长 6%（3 万亿美元）。2021年，增长投资（资本支出、R&amp;D和现金并购）应占总现金支出的55%。<b>高现金余额、创纪录的回购授权以及后 CCAR 时代金融公司的过剩资本也应该会推动 2021 年回购量反弹 35%。</b>事实上，该银行回购部门的数据显示，我们<b>今年迄今为止，企业已授权 6,270 亿美元回购，增速创历史第二快</b>（仅落后于2018年税改援助水平），比2020年水平高出155%</blockquote></p><p> In terms of preferred trades, Kostin highlights a screen of stocks with above-average net margins, realized margin growth of 50+ bp in 2020, and expected margin growth of 50+ bp in each of the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>在优先交易方面，Kostin 重点介绍了净利润率高于平均水平、2020 年实现利润率增长 50 多个基点以及预计未来两年每年利润率增长 50 多个基点的股票。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd5a1c4bf80144b4c161f6e0ef5627ff\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"899\">The median stock has a 2021E net margin of 26% (vs. 13% for S&amp;P 500 median) and is forecast to grow margins by 306 bp through 2022 and (vs. 156 bp for median stock).</p><p><blockquote>中位数股票的 2021 年净利润率为 26%（标普500中位数为 13%），预计到 2022 年利润率将增长 306 个基点（中位数股票为 156 个基点）。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Has Three Questions For Companies During Q2 Earnings Season<blockquote>高盛在第二季度财报季向公司提出了三个问题</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-12 09:29</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>2Q earnings season kicks off next week when the big banks kick off reporting as usual, and consensus expects 2Q EPS growth of 61% year/year, driven by a combination of base effect, 22% sales growth and 256 bps of net margin expansion to 11.1% even though the median stock is forecast to grow EPS by a more modest 24%. Compare this to one year ago, when S&amp;P 500 EPS fell by 32% as the pandemic sparked a sharp recession. Cyclical Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, and Materials sectors are forecast to lead the index in EPS growth.</p><p><blockquote>第二季度财报季将于下周拉开帷幕，届时各大银行将照常发布财报，市场普遍预计第二季度每股收益同比增长 61%，这得益于基数效应、22% 的销售增长和 256 个基点的净利润率扩张至 11.1%，尽管预计股票中值每股收益将增长较为温和的 24%。相比之下，一年前，由于疫情引发严重衰退，标普500每股收益下降了 32%。周期性工业、非必需消费品和材料行业预计将引领该指数的每股收益增长。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97d96a80eab68f78b39d83abd789745e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"336\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> In 2Q 2020, Brent crude traded at an average of $33/bbl and Energy stocks posted an aggregate net loss. Oil prices averaged $69/bblin 2Q and Energy firms are expected to return to profitability.</p><p><blockquote>2020年第二季度，布伦特原油平均交易价格为33美元/桶，能源股出现总净亏损。第二季度油价平均为69美元/桶，能源公司预计将恢复盈利。</blockquote></p><p> Like last quarter, Financials are expected to be the primary driver of S&amp;P 500 EPS growth. In 1Q, Financials represented $3 of the total $9 EPS beat versus consensus expectations.<b>Financials EPS are forecast to grow by 116% in 2Q and account for 25% of S&amp;P 500 EPS growth.</b>Most banks analysts expect results to come in largely in line with consensus after adjusting for reserve releases. Capital markets activity has normalized following the strong pace in 2020 and 1Q 2021. However,<b>large reserve releases will boost EPS for the third quarter in a row and could drive up to 18% EPS uplift for Banks by year-end.</b>Though investors are not likely to reward these beats outright since releases are non-recurring, analysts expect that the market will pay for the capital return that could result from the earnings tailwind and the recent CCAR results.</p><p><blockquote>与上一季度一样，金融业预计将成为标普500每股收益增长的主要驱动力。第一季度，金融股占 9 美元每股收益总额的 3 美元，超出了普遍预期。<b>预计第二季度金融每股收益将增长 116%，占标普500每股收益增长的 25%。</b>大多数银行分析师预计，在调整准备金释放后，业绩将基本符合共识。继 2020 年和 2021 年第一季度的强劲势头之后，资本市场活动已恢复正常。然而，<b>大量准备金释放将连续第三个季度提振每股收益，并可能推动银行到年底每股收益增长高达 18%。</b>尽管投资者不太可能直接奖励这些节拍，因为发布不是经常性的，但分析师预计市场将为盈利顺风和最近的 CCAR 业绩可能带来的资本回报买单。</blockquote></p><p> Another notable point:<b>while consensus expects S&amp;P 500 EPS to grow by 61%, the median stock is only forecast to grow earnings by 24%.</b></p><p><blockquote>另一个值得注意的点：<b>虽然普遍预计标普500每股收益将增长 61%，但该股的盈利预计中位数仅增长 24%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06b7ce6f61cb168c376424758fc9c5f0\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"326\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The greater rebound in aggregate earnings is largely a function of the base effect, or the sharper decline in earnings in 2020; the median S&amp;P 500 stock saw its EPS fall by just 12% year/year in 2Q 2020 compared with the 32% decline in aggregate earnings.<b>The five largest stocks in the index (FB, AMZN, AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL) account for 22% of market cap and 14% of S&amp;P 500 2Q 2021 EPS.</b>Despite last year’s acute 2Q economic contraction, these firms actually posted average EPS growth of 38% and are still expected to grow earnings by an average of 52% in 2Q 2021.</p><p><blockquote>总盈利的更大反弹在很大程度上是基数效应的函数，或者是2020年盈利更大幅度下降的函数；2020 年第二季度，标普500股票的每股收益中值仅同比下降 12%，而总收益则下降了 32%。<b>该指数中最大的五只股票（FB、AMZN、AAPL、MSFT、GOOGL）占标普500 2021 年第二季度每股收益的 22% 和 14%。</b>尽管去年第二季度经济急剧萎缩，但这些公司的平均每股收益增长率为 38%，预计 2021 年第二季度的盈利仍将平均增长 52%。</blockquote></p><p> In his preview of Q2 earnings season, Goldman's chief equity strategist David Kostin -<b>who expects the S&amp;P to close the year at 4,300 or -0.5% lower from Friday's record close</b>- focuses on three questions for managements this earnings season:</p><p><blockquote>高盛首席股票策略师 David Kostin 在第二季度财报季预览中表示 -<b>世卫组织预计标准普尔今年收于 4,300 点，较周五创纪录的收盘价下跌 -0.5%</b>- 本财报季重点关注管理层的三个问题：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>How will firms preserve profit margins amid input cost pressures?</li>  <li>How will companies prioritize their cash spending as balance sheets recover?</li>  <li>How does ongoing policy uncertainty affect the business outlook? Rates have plunged and high “quality” themes are outperforming.</li> </ol> <i>Digging a little deeper</i></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>在投入成本压力下，企业将如何保持利润率？</li><li>随着资产负债表的恢复，公司将如何优先考虑现金支出？</li><li>持续的政策不确定性如何影响业务前景？费率大幅下降，高 “质量 ”主题的表现优于市场。</li></ol><i>再深入一点</i></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>1. How will companies preserve margins amid input cost pressures?</b>S&amp;P 500 margins notched a record high of 11.9% in&nbsp; 1Q 2021, though investors remain focused on the forward margin outlook given rising input costs.<b>Global shipping woes, raw material inflation as well as acute shortages in both labor and semiconductors have combined to increase costs for companies across the by raising prices and passing higher input costs to their customers.</b>During Q1 calls, many companies discussed price increases and this trend will likely continue during 2Q earnings. Alternatively, with SG&amp;A as a share of sales elevated versus history, companies can also preserve margins through cost cutting. As an example, General Mills announced last week that it faces some of the highest costs in a decade and will implement a mix of both cost cuts and price increases.</li>  <li><b>2. Investors have started to reward companies with attractive margin profiles.</b>According to Goldman, profit margins are the second most important driver of company valuations today, behind only equity duration. The bank's sector-neutral factor of stocks with the highest vs. lowest profit margins has also started to outperform.<i>Other “quality” factors such as strong vs. weak balance sheets and high vs. low returns on capital have also inflected higher since early June.</i></li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c48adec9ce9ac7f02c3a669e37e358e4\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"350\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>1. 在投入成本压力下，企业将如何保持利润率？</b>2021 年第一季度，标普500利润率创下 11.9% 的历史新高，但鉴于投入成本上升，投资者仍关注未来利润率前景。<b>全球航运困境、原材料通货膨胀以及劳动力和半导体的严重短缺，通过提高价格并将更高的投入成本转嫁给客户，增加了各地公司的成本。</b>在第一季度评级期间，许多公司讨论了价格上涨，这一趋势可能会在第二季度财报期间继续下去。或者，随着 SG&amp;A 在销售额中的份额比历史有所增加，公司还可以通过削减成本来保持利润率。例如，通用磨坊上周宣布，它面临着十年来最高的一些成本，并将实施削减成本和提价相结合的措施。</li><li><b>2. 投资者已经开始奖励具有吸引力的利润率概况的公司。</b>高盛表示，利润率是当今公司估值的第二大驱动因素，仅次于股权存续期。该银行利润率最高与最低的股票的行业中立因素也开始跑赢大盘。<i>自 6 月初以来，其他 “质量 ”因素，如资产负债表强弱、资本回报率高与低，也出现了波动。</i></li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>3. How will companies prioritize their cash spending as balance sheets recover?</b>Both aggregate and median S&amp;P 500 cash / assets ratios have rebounded and now stand at record levels, driven in part by record high corporate bond and follow-on equity issuance during the last 18 months. And while leverage remains elevated versus history, it has been falling as corporate profits have started to improve. Info Tech and Consumer Discretionary hold the highest cash / asset ratios of any sectors and account for 43% of total S&amp;P 500 ex-Financials cash.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7c869205feb07f0e0dae0023005dbd0\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"350\">For what it's worth, Goldman expects capex will represent the largest share of S&amp;P 500 cash use in 2021, but forecasts the fastest year/year growth will be in cash M&amp;A and share buybacks. After a 10% decline in cash spending in 2020, the bank forecasts that high cash balances, anemic yields as well as strong economic and earnings growth will combine to drive 19% growth in cash spending in 2021 ($2.8 trillion) and 6% in 2022 ($3 trillion). Investing for growth (capex, R&amp;D, and cash M&amp;A) should account for 55% of total cash spending in 2021.<b>High cash balances, record buyback authorizations, and excess capital for Financials post-CCAR should also drive a 35% rebound in buybacks in 2021.</b>Indeed, data from the bank's buybacks desk show that US<b>corporates have authorized $627 billion in buybacks YTD, the second-fastest pace on record</b>(only behind the tax reform aided level in 2018) and 155% above 2020 levels</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>3. 随着资产负债表的恢复，公司将如何优先考虑现金支出？</b>标普500现金/资产比率的总体和中位数均已反弹，目前处于创纪录水平，部分原因是过去 18 个月创纪录的高位公司债券和后续股票发行。尽管杠杆率与历史相比仍然较高，但随着企业利润开始改善，杠杆率一直在下降。信息技术和非必需消费品的现金/资产比率是所有行业中最高的，占标普500除金融外现金总额的43%。</li></ul>无论如何，高盛预计资本支出将在2021年占标普500现金使用的最大份额，但预测同比增长最快的将是现金并购和股票回购。在 2020 年现金支出下降 10% 后，该银行预测，高现金余额、低收益率以及强劲的经济和盈利增长将共同推动 2021 年现金支出增长 19%（2.8 万亿美元），2022 年增长 6%（3 万亿美元）。2021年，增长投资（资本支出、R&amp;D和现金并购）应占总现金支出的55%。<b>高现金余额、创纪录的回购授权以及后 CCAR 时代金融公司的过剩资本也应该会推动 2021 年回购量反弹 35%。</b>事实上，该银行回购部门的数据显示，我们<b>今年迄今为止，企业已授权 6,270 亿美元回购，增速创历史第二快</b>（仅落后于2018年税改援助水平），比2020年水平高出155%</blockquote></p><p> In terms of preferred trades, Kostin highlights a screen of stocks with above-average net margins, realized margin growth of 50+ bp in 2020, and expected margin growth of 50+ bp in each of the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>在优先交易方面，Kostin 重点介绍了净利润率高于平均水平、2020 年实现利润率增长 50 多个基点以及预计未来两年每年利润率增长 50 多个基点的股票。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd5a1c4bf80144b4c161f6e0ef5627ff\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"899\">The median stock has a 2021E net margin of 26% (vs. 13% for S&amp;P 500 median) and is forecast to grow margins by 306 bp through 2022 and (vs. 156 bp for median stock).</p><p><blockquote>中位数股票的 2021 年净利润率为 26%（标普500中位数为 13%），预计到 2022 年利润率将增长 306 个基点（中位数股票为 156 个基点）。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-has-three-questions-companies-during-q2-earnings-season\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-has-three-questions-companies-during-q2-earnings-season","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129204116","content_text":"2Q earnings season kicks off next week when the big banks kick off reporting as usual, and consensus expects 2Q EPS growth of 61% year/year, driven by a combination of base effect, 22% sales growth and 256 bps of net margin expansion to 11.1% even though the median stock is forecast to grow EPS by a more modest 24%. Compare this to one year ago, when S&P 500 EPS fell by 32% as the pandemic sparked a sharp recession. Cyclical Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, and Materials sectors are forecast to lead the index in EPS growth.\n\nIn 2Q 2020, Brent crude traded at an average of $33/bbl and Energy stocks posted an aggregate net loss. Oil prices averaged $69/bblin 2Q and Energy firms are expected to return to profitability.\nLike last quarter, Financials are expected to be the primary driver of S&P 500 EPS growth. In 1Q, Financials represented $3 of the total $9 EPS beat versus consensus expectations.Financials EPS are forecast to grow by 116% in 2Q and account for 25% of S&P 500 EPS growth.Most banks analysts expect results to come in largely in line with consensus after adjusting for reserve releases. Capital markets activity has normalized following the strong pace in 2020 and 1Q 2021. However,large reserve releases will boost EPS for the third quarter in a row and could drive up to 18% EPS uplift for Banks by year-end.Though investors are not likely to reward these beats outright since releases are non-recurring, analysts expect that the market will pay for the capital return that could result from the earnings tailwind and the recent CCAR results.\nAnother notable point:while consensus expects S&P 500 EPS to grow by 61%, the median stock is only forecast to grow earnings by 24%.\n\nThe greater rebound in aggregate earnings is largely a function of the base effect, or the sharper decline in earnings in 2020; the median S&P 500 stock saw its EPS fall by just 12% year/year in 2Q 2020 compared with the 32% decline in aggregate earnings.The five largest stocks in the index (FB, AMZN, AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL) account for 22% of market cap and 14% of S&P 500 2Q 2021 EPS.Despite last year’s acute 2Q economic contraction, these firms actually posted average EPS growth of 38% and are still expected to grow earnings by an average of 52% in 2Q 2021.\nIn his preview of Q2 earnings season, Goldman's chief equity strategist David Kostin -who expects the S&P to close the year at 4,300 or -0.5% lower from Friday's record close- focuses on three questions for managements this earnings season:\n\nHow will firms preserve profit margins amid input cost pressures?\nHow will companies prioritize their cash spending as balance sheets recover?\nHow does ongoing policy uncertainty affect the business outlook? Rates have plunged and high “quality” themes are outperforming.\n\nDigging a little deeper\n\n1. How will companies preserve margins amid input cost pressures?S&P 500 margins notched a record high of 11.9% in  1Q 2021, though investors remain focused on the forward margin outlook given rising input costs.Global shipping woes, raw material inflation as well as acute shortages in both labor and semiconductors have combined to increase costs for companies across the by raising prices and passing higher input costs to their customers.During Q1 calls, many companies discussed price increases and this trend will likely continue during 2Q earnings. Alternatively, with SG&A as a share of sales elevated versus history, companies can also preserve margins through cost cutting. As an example, General Mills announced last week that it faces some of the highest costs in a decade and will implement a mix of both cost cuts and price increases.\n2. Investors have started to reward companies with attractive margin profiles.According to Goldman, profit margins are the second most important driver of company valuations today, behind only equity duration. The bank's sector-neutral factor of stocks with the highest vs. lowest profit margins has also started to outperform.Other “quality” factors such as strong vs. weak balance sheets and high vs. low returns on capital have also inflected higher since early June.\n\n\n\n3. How will companies prioritize their cash spending as balance sheets recover?Both aggregate and median S&P 500 cash / assets ratios have rebounded and now stand at record levels, driven in part by record high corporate bond and follow-on equity issuance during the last 18 months. And while leverage remains elevated versus history, it has been falling as corporate profits have started to improve. Info Tech and Consumer Discretionary hold the highest cash / asset ratios of any sectors and account for 43% of total S&P 500 ex-Financials cash.\n\nFor what it's worth, Goldman expects capex will represent the largest share of S&P 500 cash use in 2021, but forecasts the fastest year/year growth will be in cash M&A and share buybacks. After a 10% decline in cash spending in 2020, the bank forecasts that high cash balances, anemic yields as well as strong economic and earnings growth will combine to drive 19% growth in cash spending in 2021 ($2.8 trillion) and 6% in 2022 ($3 trillion). Investing for growth (capex, R&D, and cash M&A) should account for 55% of total cash spending in 2021.High cash balances, record buyback authorizations, and excess capital for Financials post-CCAR should also drive a 35% rebound in buybacks in 2021.Indeed, data from the bank's buybacks desk show that UScorporates have authorized $627 billion in buybacks YTD, the second-fastest pace on record(only behind the tax reform aided level in 2018) and 155% above 2020 levels\nIn terms of preferred trades, Kostin highlights a screen of stocks with above-average net margins, realized margin growth of 50+ bp in 2020, and expected margin growth of 50+ bp in each of the next two years.\nThe median stock has a 2021E net margin of 26% (vs. 13% for S&P 500 median) and is forecast to grow margins by 306 bp through 2022 and (vs. 156 bp for median stock).","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3104,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":141582932,"gmtCreate":1625880512726,"gmtModify":1631891477326,"author":{"id":"3581999424680567","authorId":"3581999424680567","name":"JoanY","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581999424680567","idStr":"3581999424680567"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hmm","listText":"Hmm","text":"Hmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/141582932","repostId":"1126588086","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1126588086","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625843443,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1126588086?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-09 23:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"On Wall Street, Slow Is the Way to Go - Just Ask a Real Trader<blockquote>在华尔街，缓慢是正确的做法——问问真正的交易员就知道了</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126588086","media":"Thestreet","summary":"With the meme stock revolution, low trading commissions and pandemic-related downtime, among other m","content":"<p>With the meme stock revolution, low trading commissions and pandemic-related downtime, among other market drivers, there’s a slew of new stock traders circulating these days. Like any influx of new participants to a larger marketplace (such as an increase in gamblers due to online waging or gig workers in a dynamic labor force), fledgling investors can have a big impact on the stock market.</p><p><blockquote>随着备忘录股票革命、低交易佣金和与大流行病相关的停机时间等市场驱动因素，如今有大量新的股票交易员在流通。就像任何新参与者涌入更大的市场一样（例如由于在线工资或动态劳动力中的零工而导致赌徒增加），新兴投资者可以对股市产生重大影响。</blockquote></p><p> That doesn’t make them real traders, at least not yet, says Real Money contributor James “Rev Shark” DePorre.</p><p><blockquote>Real Money 撰稿人 James “Rev Shark” DePorre 说，这并不能让他们成为真正的交易者，至少现在还不是。</blockquote></p><p> He writes: “It’s very easy for individuals with small amounts of money to trade stocks these days.</p><p><blockquote>他写道： “如今，对于资金不多的个人来说，炒股非常容易。</blockquote></p><p> “Yet many of the folks recently attracted to trading view it as just a form of gambling similar to sports betting. They rely primarily on luck, which can work well in the right environment, but it never lasts long. The great likelihood is that they will eventually give up or be wiped out as soon as the market goes through a deep corrective cycle.</p><p><blockquote>“然而，许多最近被吸引到交易中的人认为这只是一种类似于体育博彩的赌博形式。他们主要依靠运气，运气在合适的环境下可以很好地发挥作用，但运气永远不会持续太久。一旦市场经历深度调整周期，他们很可能最终会放弃或被淘汰。</blockquote></p><p> Some of these new market participants will evolve and become 'real' traders. They will learn a skill that will serve them well for the rest of their lives. They will eventually understand that trading can be so lucrative because it is hard to do, but persistence and effort pay off over time.”</p><p><blockquote>这些新的市场参与者中的一些将进化并成为“真正的”交易者。他们将学到一项技能，这项技能将为他们的余生服务。他们最终会明白，交易之所以如此有利可图，是因为它很难做到，但坚持和努力会随着时间的推移而得到回报。”</blockquote></p><p> Real traders also succeed in boosting their account values on a regular basis, primarily by hitting a lot of singles and doubles, and avoiding swinging for the fences.</p><p><blockquote>真正的交易者也成功地定期提高了他们的账户价值，主要是通过击中大量的单打和双打，并避免摆动栅栏。</blockquote></p><p> Some new traders did profit from the GameStop&nbsp;(<b>GME</b>)&nbsp;and AMC Entertainment&nbsp;(<b>AMC</b>)&nbsp;sagas. But those who kept pushing the short squeeze strategy and hoping it would work by sheer luck soon found their market accounts empty and their experience trading on Wall Street a disappointing, or even devastating one. That, DePorre said, is highly unlikely to happen to a real stock trader.</p><p><blockquote>一些新交易员确实从游戏驿站中获利（<b>GME</b>）和AMC院线（<b>AMC</b>)传奇。但那些不断推行空头挤压策略并希望它能凭借纯粹的运气奏效的人很快发现他们的市场账户是空的，他们在华尔街的交易经历令人失望，甚至是毁灭性的。德波雷说，这种情况不太可能发生在真正的股票交易者身上。</blockquote></p><p> What experienced traders spend most of their time and effort on is managing their trades and controlling risk, he says. “One of the hardest things to do in trading is to build substantial positions at the right time.”</p><p><blockquote>他说，经验丰富的交易者花费大部分时间和精力来管理交易和控制风险。“交易中最难做的事情之一就是在正确的时间建立大量头寸。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>On Wall Street, Slow Is the Way to Go - Just Ask a Real Trader<blockquote>在华尔街，缓慢是正确的做法——问问真正的交易员就知道了</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOn Wall Street, Slow Is the Way to Go - Just Ask a Real Trader<blockquote>在华尔街，缓慢是正确的做法——问问真正的交易员就知道了</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Thestreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-09 23:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>With the meme stock revolution, low trading commissions and pandemic-related downtime, among other market drivers, there’s a slew of new stock traders circulating these days. Like any influx of new participants to a larger marketplace (such as an increase in gamblers due to online waging or gig workers in a dynamic labor force), fledgling investors can have a big impact on the stock market.</p><p><blockquote>随着备忘录股票革命、低交易佣金和与大流行病相关的停机时间等市场驱动因素，如今有大量新的股票交易员在流通。就像任何新参与者涌入更大的市场一样（例如由于在线工资或动态劳动力中的零工而导致赌徒增加），新兴投资者可以对股市产生重大影响。</blockquote></p><p> That doesn’t make them real traders, at least not yet, says Real Money contributor James “Rev Shark” DePorre.</p><p><blockquote>Real Money 撰稿人 James “Rev Shark” DePorre 说，这并不能让他们成为真正的交易者，至少现在还不是。</blockquote></p><p> He writes: “It’s very easy for individuals with small amounts of money to trade stocks these days.</p><p><blockquote>他写道： “如今，对于资金不多的个人来说，炒股非常容易。</blockquote></p><p> “Yet many of the folks recently attracted to trading view it as just a form of gambling similar to sports betting. They rely primarily on luck, which can work well in the right environment, but it never lasts long. The great likelihood is that they will eventually give up or be wiped out as soon as the market goes through a deep corrective cycle.</p><p><blockquote>“然而，许多最近被吸引到交易中的人认为这只是一种类似于体育博彩的赌博形式。他们主要依靠运气，运气在合适的环境下可以很好地发挥作用，但运气永远不会持续太久。一旦市场经历深度调整周期，他们很可能最终会放弃或被淘汰。</blockquote></p><p> Some of these new market participants will evolve and become 'real' traders. They will learn a skill that will serve them well for the rest of their lives. They will eventually understand that trading can be so lucrative because it is hard to do, but persistence and effort pay off over time.”</p><p><blockquote>这些新的市场参与者中的一些将进化并成为“真正的”交易者。他们将学到一项技能，这项技能将为他们的余生服务。他们最终会明白，交易之所以如此有利可图，是因为它很难做到，但坚持和努力会随着时间的推移而得到回报。”</blockquote></p><p> Real traders also succeed in boosting their account values on a regular basis, primarily by hitting a lot of singles and doubles, and avoiding swinging for the fences.</p><p><blockquote>真正的交易者也成功地定期提高了他们的账户价值，主要是通过击中大量的单打和双打，并避免摆动栅栏。</blockquote></p><p> Some new traders did profit from the GameStop&nbsp;(<b>GME</b>)&nbsp;and AMC Entertainment&nbsp;(<b>AMC</b>)&nbsp;sagas. But those who kept pushing the short squeeze strategy and hoping it would work by sheer luck soon found their market accounts empty and their experience trading on Wall Street a disappointing, or even devastating one. That, DePorre said, is highly unlikely to happen to a real stock trader.</p><p><blockquote>一些新交易员确实从游戏驿站中获利（<b>GME</b>）和AMC院线（<b>AMC</b>)传奇。但那些不断推行空头挤压策略并希望它能凭借纯粹的运气奏效的人很快发现他们的市场账户是空的，他们在华尔街的交易经历令人失望，甚至是毁灭性的。德波雷说，这种情况不太可能发生在真正的股票交易者身上。</blockquote></p><p> What experienced traders spend most of their time and effort on is managing their trades and controlling risk, he says. “One of the hardest things to do in trading is to build substantial positions at the right time.”</p><p><blockquote>他说，经验丰富的交易者花费大部分时间和精力来管理交易和控制风险。“交易中最难做的事情之一就是在正确的时间建立大量头寸。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/wall-street-slow-is-the-way-to-go-just-ask-real-trader\">Thestreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站","AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/wall-street-slow-is-the-way-to-go-just-ask-real-trader","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126588086","content_text":"With the meme stock revolution, low trading commissions and pandemic-related downtime, among other market drivers, there’s a slew of new stock traders circulating these days. Like any influx of new participants to a larger marketplace (such as an increase in gamblers due to online waging or gig workers in a dynamic labor force), fledgling investors can have a big impact on the stock market.\nThat doesn’t make them real traders, at least not yet, says Real Money contributor James “Rev Shark” DePorre.\nHe writes: “It’s very easy for individuals with small amounts of money to trade stocks these days.\n“Yet many of the folks recently attracted to trading view it as just a form of gambling similar to sports betting. They rely primarily on luck, which can work well in the right environment, but it never lasts long. The great likelihood is that they will eventually give up or be wiped out as soon as the market goes through a deep corrective cycle.\nSome of these new market participants will evolve and become 'real' traders. They will learn a skill that will serve them well for the rest of their lives. They will eventually understand that trading can be so lucrative because it is hard to do, but persistence and effort pay off over time.”\nReal traders also succeed in boosting their account values on a regular basis, primarily by hitting a lot of singles and doubles, and avoiding swinging for the fences.\nSome new traders did profit from the GameStop (GME) and AMC Entertainment (AMC) sagas. But those who kept pushing the short squeeze strategy and hoping it would work by sheer luck soon found their market accounts empty and their experience trading on Wall Street a disappointing, or even devastating one. That, DePorre said, is highly unlikely to happen to a real stock trader.\nWhat experienced traders spend most of their time and effort on is managing their trades and controlling risk, he says. “One of the hardest things to do in trading is to build substantial positions at the right time.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9,"GME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2020,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":154577138,"gmtCreate":1625536754224,"gmtModify":1631891477327,"author":{"id":"3581999424680567","authorId":"3581999424680567","name":"JoanY","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581999424680567","idStr":"3581999424680567"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hmm","listText":"Hmm","text":"Hmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/154577138","repostId":"1139574200","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2377,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152838038,"gmtCreate":1625279826324,"gmtModify":1631891477333,"author":{"id":"3581999424680567","authorId":"3581999424680567","name":"JoanY","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581999424680567","idStr":"3581999424680567"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ohh","listText":"Ohh","text":"Ohh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/152838038","repostId":"1146176335","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146176335","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625277627,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1146176335?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-03 10:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can Alibaba Turn Around Its Woes in the Second Half of 2021?<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW能否在2021年下半年扭转颓势？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146176335","media":"The Street","summary":"Alibaba has been a sore laggard compared with its large- and mega-cap peers. Can that change in the second half of 2021?Alibaba  -Get Report has been a total dog so far this year. Shares were trading well into the fourth quarter of 2020 but then a string of issues pummeled the stock.Regulators disrupted Ant's initial public offering, then dug deeper on Alibaba and dialed up the heat.Investors don’t like regulatory issues as it is but particularly when we’re dealing with Chinese regulators.Howeve","content":"<p>  Alibaba has been a sore laggard compared with its large- and mega-cap peers. Can that change in the second half of 2021?  Alibaba&nbsp;(<b>BABA</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;has been a total dog so far this year. Shares were trading well into the fourth quarter of 2020 but then a string of issues pummeled the stock.</p><p><blockquote>与大型股和超大型股同行相比，阿里巴巴-SW一直严重落后。这种情况会在2021年下半年改变吗？阿里巴巴-SW(<b>巴巴</b>）-今年到目前为止，Get报告一直是一只狗。该股在2020年第四季度一直交易良好，但随后一系列问题重创了该股。</blockquote></p><p> Regulators disrupted Ant's initial public offering, then dug deeper on Alibaba and dialed up the heat.</p><p><blockquote>监管机构扰乱了蚂蚁金服的首次公开募股，然后深入调查了阿里巴巴-SW并加大了力度。</blockquote></p><p> Investors don’t like regulatory issues as it is but particularly when we’re dealing with Chinese regulators.</p><p><blockquote>投资者不喜欢监管问题，尤其是当我们与中国监管机构打交道时。</blockquote></p><p> However, in April, Alibaba paid a smaller-than-expectedbut still record fine, hoping to puts its regulatory issues behind it. Still, the stock hasn’t responded the way bulls were hoping.</p><p><blockquote>然而，四月份，阿里巴巴-SW支付了低于预期但仍创历史新高的罚款，希望将监管问题抛在脑后。尽管如此，该股的反应并没有像多头希望的那样。</blockquote></p><p> All of this comes as the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq continue to grind outnew all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>所有这一切都发生在标普500和纳斯达克继续超越历史新高之际。</blockquote></p><p> It also comes as FAANG stocks continue to trade incredibly well. Alphabet&nbsp;(<b>GOOGL</b>) -Get Reportis the top performerwith a near-40% gain in the first half of the year, while Netflix&nbsp;(<b>NFLX</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;is the worst, with a 2.3% drop.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，FAANG股票的交易继续非常好。Alphabet(<b>GOOGL</b>)-Get Reportis是表现最好的公司，上半年涨幅接近40%，而Netflix(<b>NFLX</b>）-Get报告最差，下降了2.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has a similar first-half performance, down 2.6%. However, it’s doing far worse from the highs, down more than 30%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW上半年表现类似，下跌2.6%。然而，它的表现比高点差得多，下跌了30%以上。</blockquote></p><p> Can it turn around its woes in the second half and start rallying higher?</p><p><blockquote>它能否在下半年扭转困境并开始反弹？</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9975f383919ff8cfc34fca49a32d8e8f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"494\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Call me a hopeless optimist, but I feel that Alibaba can have a solid second-half performance.</p><p><blockquote>看涨期权我是一个无可救药的乐观主义者，但我觉得阿里巴巴-SW下半场可以有稳定的表现。</blockquote></p><p> The overall market has done too well and so has large-cap tech. The fundamentals of the business are intact and growth is strong. It’s like Amazon&nbsp;(<b>AMZN</b>) -Get Report.Eventually, it will perform better&nbsp;- it’s a question of “when” and not “if.”</p><p><blockquote>整体市场表现太好了，大型科技股也是如此。业务基本面完好，增长强劲。就像亚马逊（<b>AMZN</b>)-获取报告。最终，它会表现得更好——这是一个“何时”而不是“如果”的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Shares continue to hold the $210 to $212 area and have recently cleared downtrend resistance (blue line). That said, there’s plenty of overhead hurdles.</p><p><blockquote>股价继续守住210美元至212美元区域，最近已清除下行阻力（蓝线）。也就是说，还有很多障碍。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, Alibaba stock is struggling with the 21-week moving average, as well as the 21-month and 10-month moving averages.</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，阿里巴巴-SW股票在21周移动平均线以及21个月和10个月移动平均线上苦苦挣扎。</blockquote></p><p> Let’s be clear: There are not a lot of bullish technical components here. If Alibaba stock could hold the 10-week moving average on this week’s dip, I’d feel better about it.</p><p><blockquote>让我们明确一点：这里没有很多看涨的技术成分。如果阿里巴巴-SW股票能够在本周下跌时守住10周移动平均线，我会感觉更好。</blockquote></p><p> However, as long as it can hold up over the $210 level and really, the 200-week moving average, I feel okay about Alibaba going into the next six months.</p><p><blockquote>然而，只要它能够保持在210美元水平和200周移动平均线以上，我对阿里巴巴-SW进入未来六个月感到满意。</blockquote></p><p> A push over $235 - thus putting it over all of the moving average hurdles mentioned above - could open up a run to $250, then $263. Above $275 and $300 is in play.</p><p><blockquote>突破235美元——从而突破上述所有移动平均线障碍——可能会上涨至250美元，然后是263美元。275美元以上和300美元正在发挥作用。</blockquote></p><p> Keep the risk in mind but this could be a solid second-half rebound play.</p><p><blockquote>请记住风险，但这可能是一场稳固的下半场反弹。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610613172068","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can Alibaba Turn Around Its Woes in the Second Half of 2021?<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW能否在2021年下半年扭转颓势？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan Alibaba Turn Around Its Woes in the Second Half of 2021?<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW能否在2021年下半年扭转颓势？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Street</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-03 10:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  Alibaba has been a sore laggard compared with its large- and mega-cap peers. Can that change in the second half of 2021?  Alibaba&nbsp;(<b>BABA</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;has been a total dog so far this year. Shares were trading well into the fourth quarter of 2020 but then a string of issues pummeled the stock.</p><p><blockquote>与大型股和超大型股同行相比，阿里巴巴-SW一直严重落后。这种情况会在2021年下半年改变吗？阿里巴巴-SW(<b>巴巴</b>）-今年到目前为止，Get报告一直是一只狗。该股在2020年第四季度一直交易良好，但随后一系列问题重创了该股。</blockquote></p><p> Regulators disrupted Ant's initial public offering, then dug deeper on Alibaba and dialed up the heat.</p><p><blockquote>监管机构扰乱了蚂蚁金服的首次公开募股，然后深入调查了阿里巴巴-SW并加大了力度。</blockquote></p><p> Investors don’t like regulatory issues as it is but particularly when we’re dealing with Chinese regulators.</p><p><blockquote>投资者不喜欢监管问题，尤其是当我们与中国监管机构打交道时。</blockquote></p><p> However, in April, Alibaba paid a smaller-than-expectedbut still record fine, hoping to puts its regulatory issues behind it. Still, the stock hasn’t responded the way bulls were hoping.</p><p><blockquote>然而，四月份，阿里巴巴-SW支付了低于预期但仍创历史新高的罚款，希望将监管问题抛在脑后。尽管如此，该股的反应并没有像多头希望的那样。</blockquote></p><p> All of this comes as the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq continue to grind outnew all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>所有这一切都发生在标普500和纳斯达克继续超越历史新高之际。</blockquote></p><p> It also comes as FAANG stocks continue to trade incredibly well. Alphabet&nbsp;(<b>GOOGL</b>) -Get Reportis the top performerwith a near-40% gain in the first half of the year, while Netflix&nbsp;(<b>NFLX</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;is the worst, with a 2.3% drop.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，FAANG股票的交易继续非常好。Alphabet(<b>GOOGL</b>)-Get Reportis是表现最好的公司，上半年涨幅接近40%，而Netflix(<b>NFLX</b>）-Get报告最差，下降了2.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has a similar first-half performance, down 2.6%. However, it’s doing far worse from the highs, down more than 30%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW上半年表现类似，下跌2.6%。然而，它的表现比高点差得多，下跌了30%以上。</blockquote></p><p> Can it turn around its woes in the second half and start rallying higher?</p><p><blockquote>它能否在下半年扭转困境并开始反弹？</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9975f383919ff8cfc34fca49a32d8e8f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"494\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Call me a hopeless optimist, but I feel that Alibaba can have a solid second-half performance.</p><p><blockquote>看涨期权我是一个无可救药的乐观主义者，但我觉得阿里巴巴-SW下半场可以有稳定的表现。</blockquote></p><p> The overall market has done too well and so has large-cap tech. The fundamentals of the business are intact and growth is strong. It’s like Amazon&nbsp;(<b>AMZN</b>) -Get Report.Eventually, it will perform better&nbsp;- it’s a question of “when” and not “if.”</p><p><blockquote>整体市场表现太好了，大型科技股也是如此。业务基本面完好，增长强劲。就像亚马逊（<b>AMZN</b>)-获取报告。最终，它会表现得更好——这是一个“何时”而不是“如果”的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Shares continue to hold the $210 to $212 area and have recently cleared downtrend resistance (blue line). That said, there’s plenty of overhead hurdles.</p><p><blockquote>股价继续守住210美元至212美元区域，最近已清除下行阻力（蓝线）。也就是说，还有很多障碍。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, Alibaba stock is struggling with the 21-week moving average, as well as the 21-month and 10-month moving averages.</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，阿里巴巴-SW股票在21周移动平均线以及21个月和10个月移动平均线上苦苦挣扎。</blockquote></p><p> Let’s be clear: There are not a lot of bullish technical components here. If Alibaba stock could hold the 10-week moving average on this week’s dip, I’d feel better about it.</p><p><blockquote>让我们明确一点：这里没有很多看涨的技术成分。如果阿里巴巴-SW股票能够在本周下跌时守住10周移动平均线，我会感觉更好。</blockquote></p><p> However, as long as it can hold up over the $210 level and really, the 200-week moving average, I feel okay about Alibaba going into the next six months.</p><p><blockquote>然而，只要它能够保持在210美元水平和200周移动平均线以上，我对阿里巴巴-SW进入未来六个月感到满意。</blockquote></p><p> A push over $235 - thus putting it over all of the moving average hurdles mentioned above - could open up a run to $250, then $263. Above $275 and $300 is in play.</p><p><blockquote>突破235美元——从而突破上述所有移动平均线障碍——可能会上涨至250美元，然后是263美元。275美元以上和300美元正在发挥作用。</blockquote></p><p> Keep the risk in mind but this could be a solid second-half rebound play.</p><p><blockquote>请记住风险，但这可能是一场稳固的下半场反弹。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/alibaba-baba-stock-second-half-2021-trading?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO\">The Street</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09618":"京东集团-SW","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/alibaba-baba-stock-second-half-2021-trading?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146176335","content_text":"Alibaba has been a sore laggard compared with its large- and mega-cap peers. Can that change in the second half of 2021?\n\nAlibaba (BABA) -Get Report has been a total dog so far this year. Shares were trading well into the fourth quarter of 2020 but then a string of issues pummeled the stock.\nRegulators disrupted Ant's initial public offering, then dug deeper on Alibaba and dialed up the heat.\nInvestors don’t like regulatory issues as it is but particularly when we’re dealing with Chinese regulators.\nHowever, in April, Alibaba paid a smaller-than-expectedbut still record fine, hoping to puts its regulatory issues behind it. Still, the stock hasn’t responded the way bulls were hoping.\nAll of this comes as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq continue to grind outnew all-time highs.\nIt also comes as FAANG stocks continue to trade incredibly well. Alphabet (GOOGL) -Get Reportis the top performerwith a near-40% gain in the first half of the year, while Netflix (NFLX) -Get Report is the worst, with a 2.3% drop.\nAlibaba has a similar first-half performance, down 2.6%. However, it’s doing far worse from the highs, down more than 30%.\nCan it turn around its woes in the second half and start rallying higher?\n\nCall me a hopeless optimist, but I feel that Alibaba can have a solid second-half performance.\nThe overall market has done too well and so has large-cap tech. The fundamentals of the business are intact and growth is strong. It’s like Amazon (AMZN) -Get Report.Eventually, it will perform better - it’s a question of “when” and not “if.”\nShares continue to hold the $210 to $212 area and have recently cleared downtrend resistance (blue line). That said, there’s plenty of overhead hurdles.\nSpecifically, Alibaba stock is struggling with the 21-week moving average, as well as the 21-month and 10-month moving averages.\nLet’s be clear: There are not a lot of bullish technical components here. If Alibaba stock could hold the 10-week moving average on this week’s dip, I’d feel better about it.\nHowever, as long as it can hold up over the $210 level and really, the 200-week moving average, I feel okay about Alibaba going into the next six months.\nA push over $235 - thus putting it over all of the moving average hurdles mentioned above - could open up a run to $250, then $263. Above $275 and $300 is in play.\nKeep the risk in mind but this could be a solid second-half rebound play.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09618":0.9,"BABA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2108,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124172378,"gmtCreate":1624756468394,"gmtModify":1631891477341,"author":{"id":"3581999424680567","authorId":"3581999424680567","name":"JoanY","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581999424680567","idStr":"3581999424680567"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hmm","listText":"Hmm","text":"Hmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124172378","repostId":"1162379867","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2168,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":122086303,"gmtCreate":1624588187302,"gmtModify":1631891477339,"author":{"id":"3581999424680567","authorId":"3581999424680567","name":"JoanY","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581999424680567","idStr":"3581999424680567"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/122086303","repostId":"1161354721","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2315,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121184687,"gmtCreate":1624456788049,"gmtModify":1631891477346,"author":{"id":"3581999424680567","authorId":"3581999424680567","name":"JoanY","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581999424680567","idStr":"3581999424680567"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ohh","listText":"Ohh","text":"Ohh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121184687","repostId":"1165465805","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1165465805","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624456440,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1165465805?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-23 21:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US Services Sector Unexpectedly Plunges In June As Manufacturing Survey Hits Record High<blockquote>制造业调查创历史新高，美国6月服务业意外暴跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1165465805","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Despite the serial disappointment in hard economic data, 'soft' survey data has continued to soar in","content":"<p>Despite the serial disappointment in hard economic data, 'soft' survey data has continued to soar in 2021 but analysts expected today's Markit PMIs to retrace some of those gains. However, reality was notably different with<b>Manufacturing jumping more than expected as Services plunged</b>...</p><p><blockquote>尽管硬经济数据连续令人失望，但“软”调查数据在2021年继续飙升，但分析师预计今天的Markit PMI将回吐部分涨幅。然而，现实与<b>随着服务业暴跌，制造业增长超出预期</b>...</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Markit US Manufacturing rose to 62.6</b>(from 62.1) beating expectations of 61.5.</li>  <li><b>Markit US Services plunged to 64.8</b>(from 70.4) hugely missing expectations of 70.0.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0c420f75ee5896e70db8e0021e0b5\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"273\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>Markit美国制造业升至62.6</b>（从62.1）超出预期的61.5。</li><li><b>Markit美国服务暴跌至64.8</b>（来自70.4）远远低于预期的70.0。</li></ul><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> That is the<b>lowest reading since March for Services</b>and highest reading ever for Manufacturing.</p><p><blockquote>那就是<b>服务业读数为三月份以来最低</b>也是制造业有史以来的最高读数。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51111068502f0b7011947e68d4fcef9e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Employment issues remained prevalent</b>during June, as numerous panellists mentioned difficulties finding suitably trained candidates for current vacancies.</p><p><blockquote><b>就业问题仍然普遍存在</b>在6月份，许多小组成员提到很难为目前的空缺找到训练有素的候选人。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price pressures also remained elevated in June.</b>The rate of input price inflation softened slightly but was the second-fastest on record. Manufacturers continued to note rapid increases in raw material and fuel costs, whilst service providers highlighted higher wage bills to attract workers plus greater transportation fees and fuel costs.</p><p><blockquote><b>6月份价格压力也仍然很大。</b>投入价格通胀率略有放缓，但仍为有记录以来第二快。制造商继续注意到原材料和燃料成本快速上涨，而服务提供商强调提高工资以吸引工人，加上更高的运输费用和燃料成本。</blockquote></p><p> US continues to be the world's \"strongest\" economy based on these soft surveys, even as the US Composite PMI dropped to 63.9...</p><p><blockquote>根据这些软调查，美国仍然是世界上“最强”的经济体，尽管美国综合PMI降至63.9...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84f14abd854febbd1482ff2bb17c56f6\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> Commenting on the PMI data, Chris Williamson,Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, said:</p><p><blockquote>IHS Markit首席商业经济学家Chris Williamson在评论PMI数据时表示：</blockquote></p><p>   “The early PMI indicators point to further impressive growth of the US economy in June, rounding off an unprecedented growth spurt over the second quarter as a whole.    “While both output growth and inflows of new orders have come off their peaks in both manufacturing and services, this is as much due to capacity constraints limiting firms’ abilities to cope with demand rather than any cooling of the economy.    “Although price gauges have also slipped from May’s all-time highs, it’s clear that the economy continues to run very hot. Prices charged for goods and services are still rising very sharply,  <b>record supply shortages are getting worse rather than better, firms are fighting to fill vacancies and manufacturers’ warehouse stocks are being depleted at a worrying rate as firms struggle to meet demand.</b>    <b>“While the second quarter will likely represent a peaking in the pace of economic growth, a concomitant peaking of inflation is far less assured.”</b>  So - what happens next? Does all that \"hope\" collapse back to reality? Or is \"hope\" the new strategy?</p><p><blockquote>“早期PMI指标显示，6月份美国经济进一步实现令人印象深刻的增长，完成了整个第二季度前所未有的增长。”尽管制造业和服务业的产出增长和新订单流入均已脱离峰值，但这在很大程度上是由于产能限制限制了企业应对需求的能力，而不是经济降温。他说：“虽然价格指标也从5月份的历史高点回落，但很明显，经济仍然非常火爆。商品和服务的价格仍然大幅上涨，<b>创纪录的供应短缺正在变得更糟而不是更好，企业正在努力填补空缺，由于企业难以满足需求，制造商的仓库库存正在以令人担忧的速度耗尽。</b><b>“虽然第二季度可能代表经济增长速度见顶，但随之而来的通胀见顶的确定性要小得多。”</b>那么——接下来会发生什么？所有的“希望”都会崩溃回到现实吗？还是“希望”是新战略？</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cda4e45787d67eefabc511b96083584\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"269\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> Get back to work Mr.Powell and make it so!</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔先生，回去工作吧！</blockquote></p><p> <ul></ul></p><p><blockquote><ul></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US Services Sector Unexpectedly Plunges In June As Manufacturing Survey Hits Record High<blockquote>制造业调查创历史新高，美国6月服务业意外暴跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS Services Sector Unexpectedly Plunges In June As Manufacturing Survey Hits Record High<blockquote>制造业调查创历史新高，美国6月服务业意外暴跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-23 21:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Despite the serial disappointment in hard economic data, 'soft' survey data has continued to soar in 2021 but analysts expected today's Markit PMIs to retrace some of those gains. However, reality was notably different with<b>Manufacturing jumping more than expected as Services plunged</b>...</p><p><blockquote>尽管硬经济数据连续令人失望，但“软”调查数据在2021年继续飙升，但分析师预计今天的Markit PMI将回吐部分涨幅。然而，现实与<b>随着服务业暴跌，制造业增长超出预期</b>...</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Markit US Manufacturing rose to 62.6</b>(from 62.1) beating expectations of 61.5.</li>  <li><b>Markit US Services plunged to 64.8</b>(from 70.4) hugely missing expectations of 70.0.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0c420f75ee5896e70db8e0021e0b5\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"273\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>Markit美国制造业升至62.6</b>（从62.1）超出预期的61.5。</li><li><b>Markit美国服务暴跌至64.8</b>（来自70.4）远远低于预期的70.0。</li></ul><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> That is the<b>lowest reading since March for Services</b>and highest reading ever for Manufacturing.</p><p><blockquote>那就是<b>服务业读数为三月份以来最低</b>也是制造业有史以来的最高读数。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51111068502f0b7011947e68d4fcef9e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Employment issues remained prevalent</b>during June, as numerous panellists mentioned difficulties finding suitably trained candidates for current vacancies.</p><p><blockquote><b>就业问题仍然普遍存在</b>在6月份，许多小组成员提到很难为目前的空缺找到训练有素的候选人。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price pressures also remained elevated in June.</b>The rate of input price inflation softened slightly but was the second-fastest on record. Manufacturers continued to note rapid increases in raw material and fuel costs, whilst service providers highlighted higher wage bills to attract workers plus greater transportation fees and fuel costs.</p><p><blockquote><b>6月份价格压力也仍然很大。</b>投入价格通胀率略有放缓，但仍为有记录以来第二快。制造商继续注意到原材料和燃料成本快速上涨，而服务提供商强调提高工资以吸引工人，加上更高的运输费用和燃料成本。</blockquote></p><p> US continues to be the world's \"strongest\" economy based on these soft surveys, even as the US Composite PMI dropped to 63.9...</p><p><blockquote>根据这些软调查，美国仍然是世界上“最强”的经济体，尽管美国综合PMI降至63.9...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84f14abd854febbd1482ff2bb17c56f6\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> Commenting on the PMI data, Chris Williamson,Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, said:</p><p><blockquote>IHS Markit首席商业经济学家Chris Williamson在评论PMI数据时表示：</blockquote></p><p>   “The early PMI indicators point to further impressive growth of the US economy in June, rounding off an unprecedented growth spurt over the second quarter as a whole.    “While both output growth and inflows of new orders have come off their peaks in both manufacturing and services, this is as much due to capacity constraints limiting firms’ abilities to cope with demand rather than any cooling of the economy.    “Although price gauges have also slipped from May’s all-time highs, it’s clear that the economy continues to run very hot. Prices charged for goods and services are still rising very sharply,  <b>record supply shortages are getting worse rather than better, firms are fighting to fill vacancies and manufacturers’ warehouse stocks are being depleted at a worrying rate as firms struggle to meet demand.</b>    <b>“While the second quarter will likely represent a peaking in the pace of economic growth, a concomitant peaking of inflation is far less assured.”</b>  So - what happens next? Does all that \"hope\" collapse back to reality? Or is \"hope\" the new strategy?</p><p><blockquote>“早期PMI指标显示，6月份美国经济进一步实现令人印象深刻的增长，完成了整个第二季度前所未有的增长。”尽管制造业和服务业的产出增长和新订单流入均已脱离峰值，但这在很大程度上是由于产能限制限制了企业应对需求的能力，而不是经济降温。他说：“虽然价格指标也从5月份的历史高点回落，但很明显，经济仍然非常火爆。商品和服务的价格仍然大幅上涨，<b>创纪录的供应短缺正在变得更糟而不是更好，企业正在努力填补空缺，由于企业难以满足需求，制造商的仓库库存正在以令人担忧的速度耗尽。</b><b>“虽然第二季度可能代表经济增长速度见顶，但随之而来的通胀见顶的确定性要小得多。”</b>那么——接下来会发生什么？所有的“希望”都会崩溃回到现实吗？还是“希望”是新战略？</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cda4e45787d67eefabc511b96083584\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"269\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> Get back to work Mr.Powell and make it so!</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔先生，回去工作吧！</blockquote></p><p> <ul></ul></p><p><blockquote><ul></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/us-services-sector-unexpectedly-plunges-june-manufacturing-survey-hits-record-high\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/us-services-sector-unexpectedly-plunges-june-manufacturing-survey-hits-record-high","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1165465805","content_text":"Despite the serial disappointment in hard economic data, 'soft' survey data has continued to soar in 2021 but analysts expected today's Markit PMIs to retrace some of those gains. However, reality was notably different withManufacturing jumping more than expected as Services plunged...\n\nMarkit US Manufacturing rose to 62.6(from 62.1) beating expectations of 61.5.\nMarkit US Services plunged to 64.8(from 70.4) hugely missing expectations of 70.0.\n\nSource: Bloomberg\nThat is thelowest reading since March for Servicesand highest reading ever for Manufacturing.\nEmployment issues remained prevalentduring June, as numerous panellists mentioned difficulties finding suitably trained candidates for current vacancies.\nPrice pressures also remained elevated in June.The rate of input price inflation softened slightly but was the second-fastest on record. Manufacturers continued to note rapid increases in raw material and fuel costs, whilst service providers highlighted higher wage bills to attract workers plus greater transportation fees and fuel costs.\nUS continues to be the world's \"strongest\" economy based on these soft surveys, even as the US Composite PMI dropped to 63.9...\nSource: Bloomberg\nCommenting on the PMI data, Chris Williamson,Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, said:\n\n “The early PMI indicators point to further impressive growth of the US economy in June, rounding off an unprecedented growth spurt over the second quarter as a whole.\n\n\n “While both output growth and inflows of new orders have come off their peaks in both manufacturing and services, this is as much due to capacity constraints limiting firms’ abilities to cope with demand rather than any cooling of the economy.\n\n\n “Although price gauges have also slipped from May’s all-time highs, it’s clear that the economy continues to run very hot. Prices charged for goods and services are still rising very sharply,\n record supply shortages are getting worse rather than better, firms are fighting to fill vacancies and manufacturers’ warehouse stocks are being depleted at a worrying rate as firms struggle to meet demand.\n\n\n“While the second quarter will likely represent a peaking in the pace of economic growth, a concomitant peaking of inflation is far less assured.”\n\nSo - what happens next? Does all that \"hope\" collapse back to reality? Or is \"hope\" the new strategy?\nSource: Bloomberg\nGet back to work Mr.Powell and make it so!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1834,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":123164065,"gmtCreate":1624412586457,"gmtModify":1631891477349,"author":{"id":"3581999424680567","authorId":"3581999424680567","name":"JoanY","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581999424680567","idStr":"3581999424680567"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Sad","listText":"Sad","text":"Sad","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123164065","repostId":"1164759713","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3250,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":165015715,"gmtCreate":1624080728637,"gmtModify":1631893782066,"author":{"id":"3581999424680567","authorId":"3581999424680567","name":"JoanY","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581999424680567","idStr":"3581999424680567"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ohh","listText":"Ohh","text":"Ohh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/165015715","repostId":"1161408410","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3016,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":161644359,"gmtCreate":1623925378871,"gmtModify":1631893782070,"author":{"id":"3581999424680567","authorId":"3581999424680567","name":"JoanY","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581999424680567","idStr":"3581999424680567"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/161644359","repostId":"2144710250","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":787,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169449143,"gmtCreate":1623848926782,"gmtModify":1631893782072,"author":{"id":"3581999424680567","authorId":"3581999424680567","name":"JoanY","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581999424680567","idStr":"3581999424680567"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👍🏻","listText":"👍🏻","text":"👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169449143","repostId":"2143179907","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1056,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":162300216,"gmtCreate":1624033108135,"gmtModify":1631891477316,"author":{"id":"3581999424680567","authorId":"3581999424680567","name":"JoanY","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581999424680567","authorIdStr":"3581999424680567"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":44,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162300216","repostId":"2144034771","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2872,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":801481317,"gmtCreate":1627527982539,"gmtModify":1631891477320,"author":{"id":"3581999424680567","authorId":"3581999424680567","name":"JoanY","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581999424680567","authorIdStr":"3581999424680567"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":25,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/801481317","repostId":"2154092640","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2563,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":146197121,"gmtCreate":1626057585363,"gmtModify":1631891477323,"author":{"id":"3581999424680567","authorId":"3581999424680567","name":"JoanY","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581999424680567","authorIdStr":"3581999424680567"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hmm","listText":"Hmm","text":"Hmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":18,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146197121","repostId":"1129204116","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129204116","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626053358,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1129204116?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-12 09:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman Has Three Questions For Companies During Q2 Earnings Season<blockquote>高盛在第二季度财报季向公司提出了三个问题</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129204116","media":"zerohedge","summary":"2Q earnings season kicks off next week when the big banks kick off reporting as usual, and consensus","content":"<p>2Q earnings season kicks off next week when the big banks kick off reporting as usual, and consensus expects 2Q EPS growth of 61% year/year, driven by a combination of base effect, 22% sales growth and 256 bps of net margin expansion to 11.1% even though the median stock is forecast to grow EPS by a more modest 24%. Compare this to one year ago, when S&amp;P 500 EPS fell by 32% as the pandemic sparked a sharp recession. Cyclical Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, and Materials sectors are forecast to lead the index in EPS growth.</p><p><blockquote>第二季度财报季将于下周拉开帷幕，届时各大银行将照常发布财报，市场普遍预计第二季度每股收益同比增长 61%，这得益于基数效应、22% 的销售增长和 256 个基点的净利润率扩张至 11.1%，尽管预计股票中值每股收益将增长较为温和的 24%。相比之下，一年前，由于疫情引发严重衰退，标普500每股收益下降了 32%。周期性工业、非必需消费品和材料行业预计将引领该指数的每股收益增长。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97d96a80eab68f78b39d83abd789745e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"336\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> In 2Q 2020, Brent crude traded at an average of $33/bbl and Energy stocks posted an aggregate net loss. Oil prices averaged $69/bblin 2Q and Energy firms are expected to return to profitability.</p><p><blockquote>2020年第二季度，布伦特原油平均交易价格为33美元/桶，能源股出现总净亏损。第二季度油价平均为69美元/桶，能源公司预计将恢复盈利。</blockquote></p><p> Like last quarter, Financials are expected to be the primary driver of S&amp;P 500 EPS growth. In 1Q, Financials represented $3 of the total $9 EPS beat versus consensus expectations.<b>Financials EPS are forecast to grow by 116% in 2Q and account for 25% of S&amp;P 500 EPS growth.</b>Most banks analysts expect results to come in largely in line with consensus after adjusting for reserve releases. Capital markets activity has normalized following the strong pace in 2020 and 1Q 2021. However,<b>large reserve releases will boost EPS for the third quarter in a row and could drive up to 18% EPS uplift for Banks by year-end.</b>Though investors are not likely to reward these beats outright since releases are non-recurring, analysts expect that the market will pay for the capital return that could result from the earnings tailwind and the recent CCAR results.</p><p><blockquote>与上一季度一样，金融业预计将成为标普500每股收益增长的主要驱动力。第一季度，金融股占 9 美元每股收益总额的 3 美元，超出了普遍预期。<b>预计第二季度金融每股收益将增长 116%，占标普500每股收益增长的 25%。</b>大多数银行分析师预计，在调整准备金释放后，业绩将基本符合共识。继 2020 年和 2021 年第一季度的强劲势头之后，资本市场活动已恢复正常。然而，<b>大量准备金释放将连续第三个季度提振每股收益，并可能推动银行到年底每股收益增长高达 18%。</b>尽管投资者不太可能直接奖励这些节拍，因为发布不是经常性的，但分析师预计市场将为盈利顺风和最近的 CCAR 业绩可能带来的资本回报买单。</blockquote></p><p> Another notable point:<b>while consensus expects S&amp;P 500 EPS to grow by 61%, the median stock is only forecast to grow earnings by 24%.</b></p><p><blockquote>另一个值得注意的点：<b>虽然普遍预计标普500每股收益将增长 61%，但该股的盈利预计中位数仅增长 24%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06b7ce6f61cb168c376424758fc9c5f0\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"326\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The greater rebound in aggregate earnings is largely a function of the base effect, or the sharper decline in earnings in 2020; the median S&amp;P 500 stock saw its EPS fall by just 12% year/year in 2Q 2020 compared with the 32% decline in aggregate earnings.<b>The five largest stocks in the index (FB, AMZN, AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL) account for 22% of market cap and 14% of S&amp;P 500 2Q 2021 EPS.</b>Despite last year’s acute 2Q economic contraction, these firms actually posted average EPS growth of 38% and are still expected to grow earnings by an average of 52% in 2Q 2021.</p><p><blockquote>总盈利的更大反弹在很大程度上是基数效应的函数，或者是2020年盈利更大幅度下降的函数；2020 年第二季度，标普500股票的每股收益中值仅同比下降 12%，而总收益则下降了 32%。<b>该指数中最大的五只股票（FB、AMZN、AAPL、MSFT、GOOGL）占标普500 2021 年第二季度每股收益的 22% 和 14%。</b>尽管去年第二季度经济急剧萎缩，但这些公司的平均每股收益增长率为 38%，预计 2021 年第二季度的盈利仍将平均增长 52%。</blockquote></p><p> In his preview of Q2 earnings season, Goldman's chief equity strategist David Kostin -<b>who expects the S&amp;P to close the year at 4,300 or -0.5% lower from Friday's record close</b>- focuses on three questions for managements this earnings season:</p><p><blockquote>高盛首席股票策略师 David Kostin 在第二季度财报季预览中表示 -<b>世卫组织预计标准普尔今年收于 4,300 点，较周五创纪录的收盘价下跌 -0.5%</b>- 本财报季重点关注管理层的三个问题：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>How will firms preserve profit margins amid input cost pressures?</li>  <li>How will companies prioritize their cash spending as balance sheets recover?</li>  <li>How does ongoing policy uncertainty affect the business outlook? Rates have plunged and high “quality” themes are outperforming.</li> </ol> <i>Digging a little deeper</i></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>在投入成本压力下，企业将如何保持利润率？</li><li>随着资产负债表的恢复，公司将如何优先考虑现金支出？</li><li>持续的政策不确定性如何影响业务前景？费率大幅下降，高 “质量 ”主题的表现优于市场。</li></ol><i>再深入一点</i></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>1. How will companies preserve margins amid input cost pressures?</b>S&amp;P 500 margins notched a record high of 11.9% in&nbsp; 1Q 2021, though investors remain focused on the forward margin outlook given rising input costs.<b>Global shipping woes, raw material inflation as well as acute shortages in both labor and semiconductors have combined to increase costs for companies across the by raising prices and passing higher input costs to their customers.</b>During Q1 calls, many companies discussed price increases and this trend will likely continue during 2Q earnings. Alternatively, with SG&amp;A as a share of sales elevated versus history, companies can also preserve margins through cost cutting. As an example, General Mills announced last week that it faces some of the highest costs in a decade and will implement a mix of both cost cuts and price increases.</li>  <li><b>2. Investors have started to reward companies with attractive margin profiles.</b>According to Goldman, profit margins are the second most important driver of company valuations today, behind only equity duration. The bank's sector-neutral factor of stocks with the highest vs. lowest profit margins has also started to outperform.<i>Other “quality” factors such as strong vs. weak balance sheets and high vs. low returns on capital have also inflected higher since early June.</i></li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c48adec9ce9ac7f02c3a669e37e358e4\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"350\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>1. 在投入成本压力下，企业将如何保持利润率？</b>2021 年第一季度，标普500利润率创下 11.9% 的历史新高，但鉴于投入成本上升，投资者仍关注未来利润率前景。<b>全球航运困境、原材料通货膨胀以及劳动力和半导体的严重短缺，通过提高价格并将更高的投入成本转嫁给客户，增加了各地公司的成本。</b>在第一季度评级期间，许多公司讨论了价格上涨，这一趋势可能会在第二季度财报期间继续下去。或者，随着 SG&amp;A 在销售额中的份额比历史有所增加，公司还可以通过削减成本来保持利润率。例如，通用磨坊上周宣布，它面临着十年来最高的一些成本，并将实施削减成本和提价相结合的措施。</li><li><b>2. 投资者已经开始奖励具有吸引力的利润率概况的公司。</b>高盛表示，利润率是当今公司估值的第二大驱动因素，仅次于股权存续期。该银行利润率最高与最低的股票的行业中立因素也开始跑赢大盘。<i>自 6 月初以来，其他 “质量 ”因素，如资产负债表强弱、资本回报率高与低，也出现了波动。</i></li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>3. How will companies prioritize their cash spending as balance sheets recover?</b>Both aggregate and median S&amp;P 500 cash / assets ratios have rebounded and now stand at record levels, driven in part by record high corporate bond and follow-on equity issuance during the last 18 months. And while leverage remains elevated versus history, it has been falling as corporate profits have started to improve. Info Tech and Consumer Discretionary hold the highest cash / asset ratios of any sectors and account for 43% of total S&amp;P 500 ex-Financials cash.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7c869205feb07f0e0dae0023005dbd0\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"350\">For what it's worth, Goldman expects capex will represent the largest share of S&amp;P 500 cash use in 2021, but forecasts the fastest year/year growth will be in cash M&amp;A and share buybacks. After a 10% decline in cash spending in 2020, the bank forecasts that high cash balances, anemic yields as well as strong economic and earnings growth will combine to drive 19% growth in cash spending in 2021 ($2.8 trillion) and 6% in 2022 ($3 trillion). Investing for growth (capex, R&amp;D, and cash M&amp;A) should account for 55% of total cash spending in 2021.<b>High cash balances, record buyback authorizations, and excess capital for Financials post-CCAR should also drive a 35% rebound in buybacks in 2021.</b>Indeed, data from the bank's buybacks desk show that US<b>corporates have authorized $627 billion in buybacks YTD, the second-fastest pace on record</b>(only behind the tax reform aided level in 2018) and 155% above 2020 levels</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>3. 随着资产负债表的恢复，公司将如何优先考虑现金支出？</b>标普500现金/资产比率的总体和中位数均已反弹，目前处于创纪录水平，部分原因是过去 18 个月创纪录的高位公司债券和后续股票发行。尽管杠杆率与历史相比仍然较高，但随着企业利润开始改善，杠杆率一直在下降。信息技术和非必需消费品的现金/资产比率是所有行业中最高的，占标普500除金融外现金总额的43%。</li></ul>无论如何，高盛预计资本支出将在2021年占标普500现金使用的最大份额，但预测同比增长最快的将是现金并购和股票回购。在 2020 年现金支出下降 10% 后，该银行预测，高现金余额、低收益率以及强劲的经济和盈利增长将共同推动 2021 年现金支出增长 19%（2.8 万亿美元），2022 年增长 6%（3 万亿美元）。2021年，增长投资（资本支出、R&amp;D和现金并购）应占总现金支出的55%。<b>高现金余额、创纪录的回购授权以及后 CCAR 时代金融公司的过剩资本也应该会推动 2021 年回购量反弹 35%。</b>事实上，该银行回购部门的数据显示，我们<b>今年迄今为止，企业已授权 6,270 亿美元回购，增速创历史第二快</b>（仅落后于2018年税改援助水平），比2020年水平高出155%</blockquote></p><p> In terms of preferred trades, Kostin highlights a screen of stocks with above-average net margins, realized margin growth of 50+ bp in 2020, and expected margin growth of 50+ bp in each of the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>在优先交易方面，Kostin 重点介绍了净利润率高于平均水平、2020 年实现利润率增长 50 多个基点以及预计未来两年每年利润率增长 50 多个基点的股票。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd5a1c4bf80144b4c161f6e0ef5627ff\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"899\">The median stock has a 2021E net margin of 26% (vs. 13% for S&amp;P 500 median) and is forecast to grow margins by 306 bp through 2022 and (vs. 156 bp for median stock).</p><p><blockquote>中位数股票的 2021 年净利润率为 26%（标普500中位数为 13%），预计到 2022 年利润率将增长 306 个基点（中位数股票为 156 个基点）。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Has Three Questions For Companies During Q2 Earnings Season<blockquote>高盛在第二季度财报季向公司提出了三个问题</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-12 09:29</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>2Q earnings season kicks off next week when the big banks kick off reporting as usual, and consensus expects 2Q EPS growth of 61% year/year, driven by a combination of base effect, 22% sales growth and 256 bps of net margin expansion to 11.1% even though the median stock is forecast to grow EPS by a more modest 24%. Compare this to one year ago, when S&amp;P 500 EPS fell by 32% as the pandemic sparked a sharp recession. Cyclical Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, and Materials sectors are forecast to lead the index in EPS growth.</p><p><blockquote>第二季度财报季将于下周拉开帷幕，届时各大银行将照常发布财报，市场普遍预计第二季度每股收益同比增长 61%，这得益于基数效应、22% 的销售增长和 256 个基点的净利润率扩张至 11.1%，尽管预计股票中值每股收益将增长较为温和的 24%。相比之下，一年前，由于疫情引发严重衰退，标普500每股收益下降了 32%。周期性工业、非必需消费品和材料行业预计将引领该指数的每股收益增长。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97d96a80eab68f78b39d83abd789745e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"336\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> In 2Q 2020, Brent crude traded at an average of $33/bbl and Energy stocks posted an aggregate net loss. Oil prices averaged $69/bblin 2Q and Energy firms are expected to return to profitability.</p><p><blockquote>2020年第二季度，布伦特原油平均交易价格为33美元/桶，能源股出现总净亏损。第二季度油价平均为69美元/桶，能源公司预计将恢复盈利。</blockquote></p><p> Like last quarter, Financials are expected to be the primary driver of S&amp;P 500 EPS growth. In 1Q, Financials represented $3 of the total $9 EPS beat versus consensus expectations.<b>Financials EPS are forecast to grow by 116% in 2Q and account for 25% of S&amp;P 500 EPS growth.</b>Most banks analysts expect results to come in largely in line with consensus after adjusting for reserve releases. Capital markets activity has normalized following the strong pace in 2020 and 1Q 2021. However,<b>large reserve releases will boost EPS for the third quarter in a row and could drive up to 18% EPS uplift for Banks by year-end.</b>Though investors are not likely to reward these beats outright since releases are non-recurring, analysts expect that the market will pay for the capital return that could result from the earnings tailwind and the recent CCAR results.</p><p><blockquote>与上一季度一样，金融业预计将成为标普500每股收益增长的主要驱动力。第一季度，金融股占 9 美元每股收益总额的 3 美元，超出了普遍预期。<b>预计第二季度金融每股收益将增长 116%，占标普500每股收益增长的 25%。</b>大多数银行分析师预计，在调整准备金释放后，业绩将基本符合共识。继 2020 年和 2021 年第一季度的强劲势头之后，资本市场活动已恢复正常。然而，<b>大量准备金释放将连续第三个季度提振每股收益，并可能推动银行到年底每股收益增长高达 18%。</b>尽管投资者不太可能直接奖励这些节拍，因为发布不是经常性的，但分析师预计市场将为盈利顺风和最近的 CCAR 业绩可能带来的资本回报买单。</blockquote></p><p> Another notable point:<b>while consensus expects S&amp;P 500 EPS to grow by 61%, the median stock is only forecast to grow earnings by 24%.</b></p><p><blockquote>另一个值得注意的点：<b>虽然普遍预计标普500每股收益将增长 61%，但该股的盈利预计中位数仅增长 24%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06b7ce6f61cb168c376424758fc9c5f0\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"326\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The greater rebound in aggregate earnings is largely a function of the base effect, or the sharper decline in earnings in 2020; the median S&amp;P 500 stock saw its EPS fall by just 12% year/year in 2Q 2020 compared with the 32% decline in aggregate earnings.<b>The five largest stocks in the index (FB, AMZN, AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL) account for 22% of market cap and 14% of S&amp;P 500 2Q 2021 EPS.</b>Despite last year’s acute 2Q economic contraction, these firms actually posted average EPS growth of 38% and are still expected to grow earnings by an average of 52% in 2Q 2021.</p><p><blockquote>总盈利的更大反弹在很大程度上是基数效应的函数，或者是2020年盈利更大幅度下降的函数；2020 年第二季度，标普500股票的每股收益中值仅同比下降 12%，而总收益则下降了 32%。<b>该指数中最大的五只股票（FB、AMZN、AAPL、MSFT、GOOGL）占标普500 2021 年第二季度每股收益的 22% 和 14%。</b>尽管去年第二季度经济急剧萎缩，但这些公司的平均每股收益增长率为 38%，预计 2021 年第二季度的盈利仍将平均增长 52%。</blockquote></p><p> In his preview of Q2 earnings season, Goldman's chief equity strategist David Kostin -<b>who expects the S&amp;P to close the year at 4,300 or -0.5% lower from Friday's record close</b>- focuses on three questions for managements this earnings season:</p><p><blockquote>高盛首席股票策略师 David Kostin 在第二季度财报季预览中表示 -<b>世卫组织预计标准普尔今年收于 4,300 点，较周五创纪录的收盘价下跌 -0.5%</b>- 本财报季重点关注管理层的三个问题：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>How will firms preserve profit margins amid input cost pressures?</li>  <li>How will companies prioritize their cash spending as balance sheets recover?</li>  <li>How does ongoing policy uncertainty affect the business outlook? Rates have plunged and high “quality” themes are outperforming.</li> </ol> <i>Digging a little deeper</i></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>在投入成本压力下，企业将如何保持利润率？</li><li>随着资产负债表的恢复，公司将如何优先考虑现金支出？</li><li>持续的政策不确定性如何影响业务前景？费率大幅下降，高 “质量 ”主题的表现优于市场。</li></ol><i>再深入一点</i></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>1. How will companies preserve margins amid input cost pressures?</b>S&amp;P 500 margins notched a record high of 11.9% in&nbsp; 1Q 2021, though investors remain focused on the forward margin outlook given rising input costs.<b>Global shipping woes, raw material inflation as well as acute shortages in both labor and semiconductors have combined to increase costs for companies across the by raising prices and passing higher input costs to their customers.</b>During Q1 calls, many companies discussed price increases and this trend will likely continue during 2Q earnings. Alternatively, with SG&amp;A as a share of sales elevated versus history, companies can also preserve margins through cost cutting. As an example, General Mills announced last week that it faces some of the highest costs in a decade and will implement a mix of both cost cuts and price increases.</li>  <li><b>2. Investors have started to reward companies with attractive margin profiles.</b>According to Goldman, profit margins are the second most important driver of company valuations today, behind only equity duration. The bank's sector-neutral factor of stocks with the highest vs. lowest profit margins has also started to outperform.<i>Other “quality” factors such as strong vs. weak balance sheets and high vs. low returns on capital have also inflected higher since early June.</i></li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c48adec9ce9ac7f02c3a669e37e358e4\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"350\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>1. 在投入成本压力下，企业将如何保持利润率？</b>2021 年第一季度，标普500利润率创下 11.9% 的历史新高，但鉴于投入成本上升，投资者仍关注未来利润率前景。<b>全球航运困境、原材料通货膨胀以及劳动力和半导体的严重短缺，通过提高价格并将更高的投入成本转嫁给客户，增加了各地公司的成本。</b>在第一季度评级期间，许多公司讨论了价格上涨，这一趋势可能会在第二季度财报期间继续下去。或者，随着 SG&amp;A 在销售额中的份额比历史有所增加，公司还可以通过削减成本来保持利润率。例如，通用磨坊上周宣布，它面临着十年来最高的一些成本，并将实施削减成本和提价相结合的措施。</li><li><b>2. 投资者已经开始奖励具有吸引力的利润率概况的公司。</b>高盛表示，利润率是当今公司估值的第二大驱动因素，仅次于股权存续期。该银行利润率最高与最低的股票的行业中立因素也开始跑赢大盘。<i>自 6 月初以来，其他 “质量 ”因素，如资产负债表强弱、资本回报率高与低，也出现了波动。</i></li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>3. How will companies prioritize their cash spending as balance sheets recover?</b>Both aggregate and median S&amp;P 500 cash / assets ratios have rebounded and now stand at record levels, driven in part by record high corporate bond and follow-on equity issuance during the last 18 months. And while leverage remains elevated versus history, it has been falling as corporate profits have started to improve. Info Tech and Consumer Discretionary hold the highest cash / asset ratios of any sectors and account for 43% of total S&amp;P 500 ex-Financials cash.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7c869205feb07f0e0dae0023005dbd0\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"350\">For what it's worth, Goldman expects capex will represent the largest share of S&amp;P 500 cash use in 2021, but forecasts the fastest year/year growth will be in cash M&amp;A and share buybacks. After a 10% decline in cash spending in 2020, the bank forecasts that high cash balances, anemic yields as well as strong economic and earnings growth will combine to drive 19% growth in cash spending in 2021 ($2.8 trillion) and 6% in 2022 ($3 trillion). Investing for growth (capex, R&amp;D, and cash M&amp;A) should account for 55% of total cash spending in 2021.<b>High cash balances, record buyback authorizations, and excess capital for Financials post-CCAR should also drive a 35% rebound in buybacks in 2021.</b>Indeed, data from the bank's buybacks desk show that US<b>corporates have authorized $627 billion in buybacks YTD, the second-fastest pace on record</b>(only behind the tax reform aided level in 2018) and 155% above 2020 levels</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>3. 随着资产负债表的恢复，公司将如何优先考虑现金支出？</b>标普500现金/资产比率的总体和中位数均已反弹，目前处于创纪录水平，部分原因是过去 18 个月创纪录的高位公司债券和后续股票发行。尽管杠杆率与历史相比仍然较高，但随着企业利润开始改善，杠杆率一直在下降。信息技术和非必需消费品的现金/资产比率是所有行业中最高的，占标普500除金融外现金总额的43%。</li></ul>无论如何，高盛预计资本支出将在2021年占标普500现金使用的最大份额，但预测同比增长最快的将是现金并购和股票回购。在 2020 年现金支出下降 10% 后，该银行预测，高现金余额、低收益率以及强劲的经济和盈利增长将共同推动 2021 年现金支出增长 19%（2.8 万亿美元），2022 年增长 6%（3 万亿美元）。2021年，增长投资（资本支出、R&amp;D和现金并购）应占总现金支出的55%。<b>高现金余额、创纪录的回购授权以及后 CCAR 时代金融公司的过剩资本也应该会推动 2021 年回购量反弹 35%。</b>事实上，该银行回购部门的数据显示，我们<b>今年迄今为止，企业已授权 6,270 亿美元回购，增速创历史第二快</b>（仅落后于2018年税改援助水平），比2020年水平高出155%</blockquote></p><p> In terms of preferred trades, Kostin highlights a screen of stocks with above-average net margins, realized margin growth of 50+ bp in 2020, and expected margin growth of 50+ bp in each of the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>在优先交易方面，Kostin 重点介绍了净利润率高于平均水平、2020 年实现利润率增长 50 多个基点以及预计未来两年每年利润率增长 50 多个基点的股票。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd5a1c4bf80144b4c161f6e0ef5627ff\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"899\">The median stock has a 2021E net margin of 26% (vs. 13% for S&amp;P 500 median) and is forecast to grow margins by 306 bp through 2022 and (vs. 156 bp for median stock).</p><p><blockquote>中位数股票的 2021 年净利润率为 26%（标普500中位数为 13%），预计到 2022 年利润率将增长 306 个基点（中位数股票为 156 个基点）。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-has-three-questions-companies-during-q2-earnings-season\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-has-three-questions-companies-during-q2-earnings-season","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129204116","content_text":"2Q earnings season kicks off next week when the big banks kick off reporting as usual, and consensus expects 2Q EPS growth of 61% year/year, driven by a combination of base effect, 22% sales growth and 256 bps of net margin expansion to 11.1% even though the median stock is forecast to grow EPS by a more modest 24%. Compare this to one year ago, when S&P 500 EPS fell by 32% as the pandemic sparked a sharp recession. Cyclical Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, and Materials sectors are forecast to lead the index in EPS growth.\n\nIn 2Q 2020, Brent crude traded at an average of $33/bbl and Energy stocks posted an aggregate net loss. Oil prices averaged $69/bblin 2Q and Energy firms are expected to return to profitability.\nLike last quarter, Financials are expected to be the primary driver of S&P 500 EPS growth. In 1Q, Financials represented $3 of the total $9 EPS beat versus consensus expectations.Financials EPS are forecast to grow by 116% in 2Q and account for 25% of S&P 500 EPS growth.Most banks analysts expect results to come in largely in line with consensus after adjusting for reserve releases. Capital markets activity has normalized following the strong pace in 2020 and 1Q 2021. However,large reserve releases will boost EPS for the third quarter in a row and could drive up to 18% EPS uplift for Banks by year-end.Though investors are not likely to reward these beats outright since releases are non-recurring, analysts expect that the market will pay for the capital return that could result from the earnings tailwind and the recent CCAR results.\nAnother notable point:while consensus expects S&P 500 EPS to grow by 61%, the median stock is only forecast to grow earnings by 24%.\n\nThe greater rebound in aggregate earnings is largely a function of the base effect, or the sharper decline in earnings in 2020; the median S&P 500 stock saw its EPS fall by just 12% year/year in 2Q 2020 compared with the 32% decline in aggregate earnings.The five largest stocks in the index (FB, AMZN, AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL) account for 22% of market cap and 14% of S&P 500 2Q 2021 EPS.Despite last year’s acute 2Q economic contraction, these firms actually posted average EPS growth of 38% and are still expected to grow earnings by an average of 52% in 2Q 2021.\nIn his preview of Q2 earnings season, Goldman's chief equity strategist David Kostin -who expects the S&P to close the year at 4,300 or -0.5% lower from Friday's record close- focuses on three questions for managements this earnings season:\n\nHow will firms preserve profit margins amid input cost pressures?\nHow will companies prioritize their cash spending as balance sheets recover?\nHow does ongoing policy uncertainty affect the business outlook? Rates have plunged and high “quality” themes are outperforming.\n\nDigging a little deeper\n\n1. How will companies preserve margins amid input cost pressures?S&P 500 margins notched a record high of 11.9% in  1Q 2021, though investors remain focused on the forward margin outlook given rising input costs.Global shipping woes, raw material inflation as well as acute shortages in both labor and semiconductors have combined to increase costs for companies across the by raising prices and passing higher input costs to their customers.During Q1 calls, many companies discussed price increases and this trend will likely continue during 2Q earnings. Alternatively, with SG&A as a share of sales elevated versus history, companies can also preserve margins through cost cutting. As an example, General Mills announced last week that it faces some of the highest costs in a decade and will implement a mix of both cost cuts and price increases.\n2. Investors have started to reward companies with attractive margin profiles.According to Goldman, profit margins are the second most important driver of company valuations today, behind only equity duration. The bank's sector-neutral factor of stocks with the highest vs. lowest profit margins has also started to outperform.Other “quality” factors such as strong vs. weak balance sheets and high vs. low returns on capital have also inflected higher since early June.\n\n\n\n3. How will companies prioritize their cash spending as balance sheets recover?Both aggregate and median S&P 500 cash / assets ratios have rebounded and now stand at record levels, driven in part by record high corporate bond and follow-on equity issuance during the last 18 months. And while leverage remains elevated versus history, it has been falling as corporate profits have started to improve. Info Tech and Consumer Discretionary hold the highest cash / asset ratios of any sectors and account for 43% of total S&P 500 ex-Financials cash.\n\nFor what it's worth, Goldman expects capex will represent the largest share of S&P 500 cash use in 2021, but forecasts the fastest year/year growth will be in cash M&A and share buybacks. After a 10% decline in cash spending in 2020, the bank forecasts that high cash balances, anemic yields as well as strong economic and earnings growth will combine to drive 19% growth in cash spending in 2021 ($2.8 trillion) and 6% in 2022 ($3 trillion). Investing for growth (capex, R&D, and cash M&A) should account for 55% of total cash spending in 2021.High cash balances, record buyback authorizations, and excess capital for Financials post-CCAR should also drive a 35% rebound in buybacks in 2021.Indeed, data from the bank's buybacks desk show that UScorporates have authorized $627 billion in buybacks YTD, the second-fastest pace on record(only behind the tax reform aided level in 2018) and 155% above 2020 levels\nIn terms of preferred trades, Kostin highlights a screen of stocks with above-average net margins, realized margin growth of 50+ bp in 2020, and expected margin growth of 50+ bp in each of the next two years.\nThe median stock has a 2021E net margin of 26% (vs. 13% for S&P 500 median) and is forecast to grow margins by 306 bp through 2022 and (vs. 156 bp for median stock).","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3104,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":141582932,"gmtCreate":1625880512726,"gmtModify":1631891477326,"author":{"id":"3581999424680567","authorId":"3581999424680567","name":"JoanY","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581999424680567","authorIdStr":"3581999424680567"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hmm","listText":"Hmm","text":"Hmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/141582932","repostId":"1126588086","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1126588086","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625843443,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1126588086?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-09 23:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"On Wall Street, Slow Is the Way to Go - Just Ask a Real Trader<blockquote>在华尔街，缓慢是正确的做法——问问真正的交易员就知道了</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126588086","media":"Thestreet","summary":"With the meme stock revolution, low trading commissions and pandemic-related downtime, among other m","content":"<p>With the meme stock revolution, low trading commissions and pandemic-related downtime, among other market drivers, there’s a slew of new stock traders circulating these days. Like any influx of new participants to a larger marketplace (such as an increase in gamblers due to online waging or gig workers in a dynamic labor force), fledgling investors can have a big impact on the stock market.</p><p><blockquote>随着备忘录股票革命、低交易佣金和与大流行病相关的停机时间等市场驱动因素，如今有大量新的股票交易员在流通。就像任何新参与者涌入更大的市场一样（例如由于在线工资或动态劳动力中的零工而导致赌徒增加），新兴投资者可以对股市产生重大影响。</blockquote></p><p> That doesn’t make them real traders, at least not yet, says Real Money contributor James “Rev Shark” DePorre.</p><p><blockquote>Real Money 撰稿人 James “Rev Shark” DePorre 说，这并不能让他们成为真正的交易者，至少现在还不是。</blockquote></p><p> He writes: “It’s very easy for individuals with small amounts of money to trade stocks these days.</p><p><blockquote>他写道： “如今，对于资金不多的个人来说，炒股非常容易。</blockquote></p><p> “Yet many of the folks recently attracted to trading view it as just a form of gambling similar to sports betting. They rely primarily on luck, which can work well in the right environment, but it never lasts long. The great likelihood is that they will eventually give up or be wiped out as soon as the market goes through a deep corrective cycle.</p><p><blockquote>“然而，许多最近被吸引到交易中的人认为这只是一种类似于体育博彩的赌博形式。他们主要依靠运气，运气在合适的环境下可以很好地发挥作用，但运气永远不会持续太久。一旦市场经历深度调整周期，他们很可能最终会放弃或被淘汰。</blockquote></p><p> Some of these new market participants will evolve and become 'real' traders. They will learn a skill that will serve them well for the rest of their lives. They will eventually understand that trading can be so lucrative because it is hard to do, but persistence and effort pay off over time.”</p><p><blockquote>这些新的市场参与者中的一些将进化并成为“真正的”交易者。他们将学到一项技能，这项技能将为他们的余生服务。他们最终会明白，交易之所以如此有利可图，是因为它很难做到，但坚持和努力会随着时间的推移而得到回报。”</blockquote></p><p> Real traders also succeed in boosting their account values on a regular basis, primarily by hitting a lot of singles and doubles, and avoiding swinging for the fences.</p><p><blockquote>真正的交易者也成功地定期提高了他们的账户价值，主要是通过击中大量的单打和双打，并避免摆动栅栏。</blockquote></p><p> Some new traders did profit from the GameStop&nbsp;(<b>GME</b>)&nbsp;and AMC Entertainment&nbsp;(<b>AMC</b>)&nbsp;sagas. But those who kept pushing the short squeeze strategy and hoping it would work by sheer luck soon found their market accounts empty and their experience trading on Wall Street a disappointing, or even devastating one. That, DePorre said, is highly unlikely to happen to a real stock trader.</p><p><blockquote>一些新交易员确实从游戏驿站中获利（<b>GME</b>）和AMC院线（<b>AMC</b>)传奇。但那些不断推行空头挤压策略并希望它能凭借纯粹的运气奏效的人很快发现他们的市场账户是空的，他们在华尔街的交易经历令人失望，甚至是毁灭性的。德波雷说，这种情况不太可能发生在真正的股票交易者身上。</blockquote></p><p> What experienced traders spend most of their time and effort on is managing their trades and controlling risk, he says. “One of the hardest things to do in trading is to build substantial positions at the right time.”</p><p><blockquote>他说，经验丰富的交易者花费大部分时间和精力来管理交易和控制风险。“交易中最难做的事情之一就是在正确的时间建立大量头寸。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>On Wall Street, Slow Is the Way to Go - Just Ask a Real Trader<blockquote>在华尔街，缓慢是正确的做法——问问真正的交易员就知道了</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOn Wall Street, Slow Is the Way to Go - Just Ask a Real Trader<blockquote>在华尔街，缓慢是正确的做法——问问真正的交易员就知道了</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Thestreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-09 23:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>With the meme stock revolution, low trading commissions and pandemic-related downtime, among other market drivers, there’s a slew of new stock traders circulating these days. Like any influx of new participants to a larger marketplace (such as an increase in gamblers due to online waging or gig workers in a dynamic labor force), fledgling investors can have a big impact on the stock market.</p><p><blockquote>随着备忘录股票革命、低交易佣金和与大流行病相关的停机时间等市场驱动因素，如今有大量新的股票交易员在流通。就像任何新参与者涌入更大的市场一样（例如由于在线工资或动态劳动力中的零工而导致赌徒增加），新兴投资者可以对股市产生重大影响。</blockquote></p><p> That doesn’t make them real traders, at least not yet, says Real Money contributor James “Rev Shark” DePorre.</p><p><blockquote>Real Money 撰稿人 James “Rev Shark” DePorre 说，这并不能让他们成为真正的交易者，至少现在还不是。</blockquote></p><p> He writes: “It’s very easy for individuals with small amounts of money to trade stocks these days.</p><p><blockquote>他写道： “如今，对于资金不多的个人来说，炒股非常容易。</blockquote></p><p> “Yet many of the folks recently attracted to trading view it as just a form of gambling similar to sports betting. They rely primarily on luck, which can work well in the right environment, but it never lasts long. The great likelihood is that they will eventually give up or be wiped out as soon as the market goes through a deep corrective cycle.</p><p><blockquote>“然而，许多最近被吸引到交易中的人认为这只是一种类似于体育博彩的赌博形式。他们主要依靠运气，运气在合适的环境下可以很好地发挥作用，但运气永远不会持续太久。一旦市场经历深度调整周期，他们很可能最终会放弃或被淘汰。</blockquote></p><p> Some of these new market participants will evolve and become 'real' traders. They will learn a skill that will serve them well for the rest of their lives. They will eventually understand that trading can be so lucrative because it is hard to do, but persistence and effort pay off over time.”</p><p><blockquote>这些新的市场参与者中的一些将进化并成为“真正的”交易者。他们将学到一项技能，这项技能将为他们的余生服务。他们最终会明白，交易之所以如此有利可图，是因为它很难做到，但坚持和努力会随着时间的推移而得到回报。”</blockquote></p><p> Real traders also succeed in boosting their account values on a regular basis, primarily by hitting a lot of singles and doubles, and avoiding swinging for the fences.</p><p><blockquote>真正的交易者也成功地定期提高了他们的账户价值，主要是通过击中大量的单打和双打，并避免摆动栅栏。</blockquote></p><p> Some new traders did profit from the GameStop&nbsp;(<b>GME</b>)&nbsp;and AMC Entertainment&nbsp;(<b>AMC</b>)&nbsp;sagas. But those who kept pushing the short squeeze strategy and hoping it would work by sheer luck soon found their market accounts empty and their experience trading on Wall Street a disappointing, or even devastating one. That, DePorre said, is highly unlikely to happen to a real stock trader.</p><p><blockquote>一些新交易员确实从游戏驿站中获利（<b>GME</b>）和AMC院线（<b>AMC</b>)传奇。但那些不断推行空头挤压策略并希望它能凭借纯粹的运气奏效的人很快发现他们的市场账户是空的，他们在华尔街的交易经历令人失望，甚至是毁灭性的。德波雷说，这种情况不太可能发生在真正的股票交易者身上。</blockquote></p><p> What experienced traders spend most of their time and effort on is managing their trades and controlling risk, he says. “One of the hardest things to do in trading is to build substantial positions at the right time.”</p><p><blockquote>他说，经验丰富的交易者花费大部分时间和精力来管理交易和控制风险。“交易中最难做的事情之一就是在正确的时间建立大量头寸。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/wall-street-slow-is-the-way-to-go-just-ask-real-trader\">Thestreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站","AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/wall-street-slow-is-the-way-to-go-just-ask-real-trader","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126588086","content_text":"With the meme stock revolution, low trading commissions and pandemic-related downtime, among other market drivers, there’s a slew of new stock traders circulating these days. Like any influx of new participants to a larger marketplace (such as an increase in gamblers due to online waging or gig workers in a dynamic labor force), fledgling investors can have a big impact on the stock market.\nThat doesn’t make them real traders, at least not yet, says Real Money contributor James “Rev Shark” DePorre.\nHe writes: “It’s very easy for individuals with small amounts of money to trade stocks these days.\n“Yet many of the folks recently attracted to trading view it as just a form of gambling similar to sports betting. They rely primarily on luck, which can work well in the right environment, but it never lasts long. The great likelihood is that they will eventually give up or be wiped out as soon as the market goes through a deep corrective cycle.\nSome of these new market participants will evolve and become 'real' traders. They will learn a skill that will serve them well for the rest of their lives. They will eventually understand that trading can be so lucrative because it is hard to do, but persistence and effort pay off over time.”\nReal traders also succeed in boosting their account values on a regular basis, primarily by hitting a lot of singles and doubles, and avoiding swinging for the fences.\nSome new traders did profit from the GameStop (GME) and AMC Entertainment (AMC) sagas. But those who kept pushing the short squeeze strategy and hoping it would work by sheer luck soon found their market accounts empty and their experience trading on Wall Street a disappointing, or even devastating one. That, DePorre said, is highly unlikely to happen to a real stock trader.\nWhat experienced traders spend most of their time and effort on is managing their trades and controlling risk, he says. “One of the hardest things to do in trading is to build substantial positions at the right time.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9,"GME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2020,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":154577138,"gmtCreate":1625536754224,"gmtModify":1631891477327,"author":{"id":"3581999424680567","authorId":"3581999424680567","name":"JoanY","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581999424680567","authorIdStr":"3581999424680567"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hmm","listText":"Hmm","text":"Hmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/154577138","repostId":"1139574200","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2377,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124172378,"gmtCreate":1624756468394,"gmtModify":1631891477341,"author":{"id":"3581999424680567","authorId":"3581999424680567","name":"JoanY","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581999424680567","authorIdStr":"3581999424680567"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hmm","listText":"Hmm","text":"Hmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124172378","repostId":"1162379867","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2168,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":122086303,"gmtCreate":1624588187302,"gmtModify":1631891477339,"author":{"id":"3581999424680567","authorId":"3581999424680567","name":"JoanY","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581999424680567","authorIdStr":"3581999424680567"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/122086303","repostId":"1161354721","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2315,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152838038,"gmtCreate":1625279826324,"gmtModify":1631891477333,"author":{"id":"3581999424680567","authorId":"3581999424680567","name":"JoanY","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581999424680567","authorIdStr":"3581999424680567"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ohh","listText":"Ohh","text":"Ohh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/152838038","repostId":"1146176335","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146176335","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625277627,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1146176335?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-03 10:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can Alibaba Turn Around Its Woes in the Second Half of 2021?<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW能否在2021年下半年扭转颓势？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146176335","media":"The Street","summary":"Alibaba has been a sore laggard compared with its large- and mega-cap peers. Can that change in the second half of 2021?Alibaba  -Get Report has been a total dog so far this year. Shares were trading well into the fourth quarter of 2020 but then a string of issues pummeled the stock.Regulators disrupted Ant's initial public offering, then dug deeper on Alibaba and dialed up the heat.Investors don’t like regulatory issues as it is but particularly when we’re dealing with Chinese regulators.Howeve","content":"<p>  Alibaba has been a sore laggard compared with its large- and mega-cap peers. Can that change in the second half of 2021?  Alibaba&nbsp;(<b>BABA</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;has been a total dog so far this year. Shares were trading well into the fourth quarter of 2020 but then a string of issues pummeled the stock.</p><p><blockquote>与大型股和超大型股同行相比，阿里巴巴-SW一直严重落后。这种情况会在2021年下半年改变吗？阿里巴巴-SW(<b>巴巴</b>）-今年到目前为止，Get报告一直是一只狗。该股在2020年第四季度一直交易良好，但随后一系列问题重创了该股。</blockquote></p><p> Regulators disrupted Ant's initial public offering, then dug deeper on Alibaba and dialed up the heat.</p><p><blockquote>监管机构扰乱了蚂蚁金服的首次公开募股，然后深入调查了阿里巴巴-SW并加大了力度。</blockquote></p><p> Investors don’t like regulatory issues as it is but particularly when we’re dealing with Chinese regulators.</p><p><blockquote>投资者不喜欢监管问题，尤其是当我们与中国监管机构打交道时。</blockquote></p><p> However, in April, Alibaba paid a smaller-than-expectedbut still record fine, hoping to puts its regulatory issues behind it. Still, the stock hasn’t responded the way bulls were hoping.</p><p><blockquote>然而，四月份，阿里巴巴-SW支付了低于预期但仍创历史新高的罚款，希望将监管问题抛在脑后。尽管如此，该股的反应并没有像多头希望的那样。</blockquote></p><p> All of this comes as the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq continue to grind outnew all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>所有这一切都发生在标普500和纳斯达克继续超越历史新高之际。</blockquote></p><p> It also comes as FAANG stocks continue to trade incredibly well. Alphabet&nbsp;(<b>GOOGL</b>) -Get Reportis the top performerwith a near-40% gain in the first half of the year, while Netflix&nbsp;(<b>NFLX</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;is the worst, with a 2.3% drop.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，FAANG股票的交易继续非常好。Alphabet(<b>GOOGL</b>)-Get Reportis是表现最好的公司，上半年涨幅接近40%，而Netflix(<b>NFLX</b>）-Get报告最差，下降了2.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has a similar first-half performance, down 2.6%. However, it’s doing far worse from the highs, down more than 30%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW上半年表现类似，下跌2.6%。然而，它的表现比高点差得多，下跌了30%以上。</blockquote></p><p> Can it turn around its woes in the second half and start rallying higher?</p><p><blockquote>它能否在下半年扭转困境并开始反弹？</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9975f383919ff8cfc34fca49a32d8e8f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"494\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Call me a hopeless optimist, but I feel that Alibaba can have a solid second-half performance.</p><p><blockquote>看涨期权我是一个无可救药的乐观主义者，但我觉得阿里巴巴-SW下半场可以有稳定的表现。</blockquote></p><p> The overall market has done too well and so has large-cap tech. The fundamentals of the business are intact and growth is strong. It’s like Amazon&nbsp;(<b>AMZN</b>) -Get Report.Eventually, it will perform better&nbsp;- it’s a question of “when” and not “if.”</p><p><blockquote>整体市场表现太好了，大型科技股也是如此。业务基本面完好，增长强劲。就像亚马逊（<b>AMZN</b>)-获取报告。最终，它会表现得更好——这是一个“何时”而不是“如果”的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Shares continue to hold the $210 to $212 area and have recently cleared downtrend resistance (blue line). That said, there’s plenty of overhead hurdles.</p><p><blockquote>股价继续守住210美元至212美元区域，最近已清除下行阻力（蓝线）。也就是说，还有很多障碍。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, Alibaba stock is struggling with the 21-week moving average, as well as the 21-month and 10-month moving averages.</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，阿里巴巴-SW股票在21周移动平均线以及21个月和10个月移动平均线上苦苦挣扎。</blockquote></p><p> Let’s be clear: There are not a lot of bullish technical components here. If Alibaba stock could hold the 10-week moving average on this week’s dip, I’d feel better about it.</p><p><blockquote>让我们明确一点：这里没有很多看涨的技术成分。如果阿里巴巴-SW股票能够在本周下跌时守住10周移动平均线，我会感觉更好。</blockquote></p><p> However, as long as it can hold up over the $210 level and really, the 200-week moving average, I feel okay about Alibaba going into the next six months.</p><p><blockquote>然而，只要它能够保持在210美元水平和200周移动平均线以上，我对阿里巴巴-SW进入未来六个月感到满意。</blockquote></p><p> A push over $235 - thus putting it over all of the moving average hurdles mentioned above - could open up a run to $250, then $263. Above $275 and $300 is in play.</p><p><blockquote>突破235美元——从而突破上述所有移动平均线障碍——可能会上涨至250美元，然后是263美元。275美元以上和300美元正在发挥作用。</blockquote></p><p> Keep the risk in mind but this could be a solid second-half rebound play.</p><p><blockquote>请记住风险，但这可能是一场稳固的下半场反弹。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610613172068","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can Alibaba Turn Around Its Woes in the Second Half of 2021?<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW能否在2021年下半年扭转颓势？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan Alibaba Turn Around Its Woes in the Second Half of 2021?<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW能否在2021年下半年扭转颓势？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Street</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-03 10:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  Alibaba has been a sore laggard compared with its large- and mega-cap peers. Can that change in the second half of 2021?  Alibaba&nbsp;(<b>BABA</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;has been a total dog so far this year. Shares were trading well into the fourth quarter of 2020 but then a string of issues pummeled the stock.</p><p><blockquote>与大型股和超大型股同行相比，阿里巴巴-SW一直严重落后。这种情况会在2021年下半年改变吗？阿里巴巴-SW(<b>巴巴</b>）-今年到目前为止，Get报告一直是一只狗。该股在2020年第四季度一直交易良好，但随后一系列问题重创了该股。</blockquote></p><p> Regulators disrupted Ant's initial public offering, then dug deeper on Alibaba and dialed up the heat.</p><p><blockquote>监管机构扰乱了蚂蚁金服的首次公开募股，然后深入调查了阿里巴巴-SW并加大了力度。</blockquote></p><p> Investors don’t like regulatory issues as it is but particularly when we’re dealing with Chinese regulators.</p><p><blockquote>投资者不喜欢监管问题，尤其是当我们与中国监管机构打交道时。</blockquote></p><p> However, in April, Alibaba paid a smaller-than-expectedbut still record fine, hoping to puts its regulatory issues behind it. Still, the stock hasn’t responded the way bulls were hoping.</p><p><blockquote>然而，四月份，阿里巴巴-SW支付了低于预期但仍创历史新高的罚款，希望将监管问题抛在脑后。尽管如此，该股的反应并没有像多头希望的那样。</blockquote></p><p> All of this comes as the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq continue to grind outnew all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>所有这一切都发生在标普500和纳斯达克继续超越历史新高之际。</blockquote></p><p> It also comes as FAANG stocks continue to trade incredibly well. Alphabet&nbsp;(<b>GOOGL</b>) -Get Reportis the top performerwith a near-40% gain in the first half of the year, while Netflix&nbsp;(<b>NFLX</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;is the worst, with a 2.3% drop.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，FAANG股票的交易继续非常好。Alphabet(<b>GOOGL</b>)-Get Reportis是表现最好的公司，上半年涨幅接近40%，而Netflix(<b>NFLX</b>）-Get报告最差，下降了2.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has a similar first-half performance, down 2.6%. However, it’s doing far worse from the highs, down more than 30%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW上半年表现类似，下跌2.6%。然而，它的表现比高点差得多，下跌了30%以上。</blockquote></p><p> Can it turn around its woes in the second half and start rallying higher?</p><p><blockquote>它能否在下半年扭转困境并开始反弹？</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9975f383919ff8cfc34fca49a32d8e8f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"494\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Call me a hopeless optimist, but I feel that Alibaba can have a solid second-half performance.</p><p><blockquote>看涨期权我是一个无可救药的乐观主义者，但我觉得阿里巴巴-SW下半场可以有稳定的表现。</blockquote></p><p> The overall market has done too well and so has large-cap tech. The fundamentals of the business are intact and growth is strong. It’s like Amazon&nbsp;(<b>AMZN</b>) -Get Report.Eventually, it will perform better&nbsp;- it’s a question of “when” and not “if.”</p><p><blockquote>整体市场表现太好了，大型科技股也是如此。业务基本面完好，增长强劲。就像亚马逊（<b>AMZN</b>)-获取报告。最终，它会表现得更好——这是一个“何时”而不是“如果”的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Shares continue to hold the $210 to $212 area and have recently cleared downtrend resistance (blue line). That said, there’s plenty of overhead hurdles.</p><p><blockquote>股价继续守住210美元至212美元区域，最近已清除下行阻力（蓝线）。也就是说，还有很多障碍。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, Alibaba stock is struggling with the 21-week moving average, as well as the 21-month and 10-month moving averages.</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，阿里巴巴-SW股票在21周移动平均线以及21个月和10个月移动平均线上苦苦挣扎。</blockquote></p><p> Let’s be clear: There are not a lot of bullish technical components here. If Alibaba stock could hold the 10-week moving average on this week’s dip, I’d feel better about it.</p><p><blockquote>让我们明确一点：这里没有很多看涨的技术成分。如果阿里巴巴-SW股票能够在本周下跌时守住10周移动平均线，我会感觉更好。</blockquote></p><p> However, as long as it can hold up over the $210 level and really, the 200-week moving average, I feel okay about Alibaba going into the next six months.</p><p><blockquote>然而，只要它能够保持在210美元水平和200周移动平均线以上，我对阿里巴巴-SW进入未来六个月感到满意。</blockquote></p><p> A push over $235 - thus putting it over all of the moving average hurdles mentioned above - could open up a run to $250, then $263. Above $275 and $300 is in play.</p><p><blockquote>突破235美元——从而突破上述所有移动平均线障碍——可能会上涨至250美元，然后是263美元。275美元以上和300美元正在发挥作用。</blockquote></p><p> Keep the risk in mind but this could be a solid second-half rebound play.</p><p><blockquote>请记住风险，但这可能是一场稳固的下半场反弹。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/alibaba-baba-stock-second-half-2021-trading?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO\">The Street</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09618":"京东集团-SW","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/alibaba-baba-stock-second-half-2021-trading?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146176335","content_text":"Alibaba has been a sore laggard compared with its large- and mega-cap peers. Can that change in the second half of 2021?\n\nAlibaba (BABA) -Get Report has been a total dog so far this year. Shares were trading well into the fourth quarter of 2020 but then a string of issues pummeled the stock.\nRegulators disrupted Ant's initial public offering, then dug deeper on Alibaba and dialed up the heat.\nInvestors don’t like regulatory issues as it is but particularly when we’re dealing with Chinese regulators.\nHowever, in April, Alibaba paid a smaller-than-expectedbut still record fine, hoping to puts its regulatory issues behind it. Still, the stock hasn’t responded the way bulls were hoping.\nAll of this comes as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq continue to grind outnew all-time highs.\nIt also comes as FAANG stocks continue to trade incredibly well. Alphabet (GOOGL) -Get Reportis the top performerwith a near-40% gain in the first half of the year, while Netflix (NFLX) -Get Report is the worst, with a 2.3% drop.\nAlibaba has a similar first-half performance, down 2.6%. However, it’s doing far worse from the highs, down more than 30%.\nCan it turn around its woes in the second half and start rallying higher?\n\nCall me a hopeless optimist, but I feel that Alibaba can have a solid second-half performance.\nThe overall market has done too well and so has large-cap tech. The fundamentals of the business are intact and growth is strong. It’s like Amazon (AMZN) -Get Report.Eventually, it will perform better - it’s a question of “when” and not “if.”\nShares continue to hold the $210 to $212 area and have recently cleared downtrend resistance (blue line). That said, there’s plenty of overhead hurdles.\nSpecifically, Alibaba stock is struggling with the 21-week moving average, as well as the 21-month and 10-month moving averages.\nLet’s be clear: There are not a lot of bullish technical components here. If Alibaba stock could hold the 10-week moving average on this week’s dip, I’d feel better about it.\nHowever, as long as it can hold up over the $210 level and really, the 200-week moving average, I feel okay about Alibaba going into the next six months.\nA push over $235 - thus putting it over all of the moving average hurdles mentioned above - could open up a run to $250, then $263. Above $275 and $300 is in play.\nKeep the risk in mind but this could be a solid second-half rebound play.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09618":0.9,"BABA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2108,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121184687,"gmtCreate":1624456788049,"gmtModify":1631891477346,"author":{"id":"3581999424680567","authorId":"3581999424680567","name":"JoanY","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581999424680567","authorIdStr":"3581999424680567"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ohh","listText":"Ohh","text":"Ohh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121184687","repostId":"1165465805","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1165465805","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624456440,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1165465805?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-23 21:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US Services Sector Unexpectedly Plunges In June As Manufacturing Survey Hits Record High<blockquote>制造业调查创历史新高，美国6月服务业意外暴跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1165465805","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Despite the serial disappointment in hard economic data, 'soft' survey data has continued to soar in","content":"<p>Despite the serial disappointment in hard economic data, 'soft' survey data has continued to soar in 2021 but analysts expected today's Markit PMIs to retrace some of those gains. However, reality was notably different with<b>Manufacturing jumping more than expected as Services plunged</b>...</p><p><blockquote>尽管硬经济数据连续令人失望，但“软”调查数据在2021年继续飙升，但分析师预计今天的Markit PMI将回吐部分涨幅。然而，现实与<b>随着服务业暴跌，制造业增长超出预期</b>...</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Markit US Manufacturing rose to 62.6</b>(from 62.1) beating expectations of 61.5.</li>  <li><b>Markit US Services plunged to 64.8</b>(from 70.4) hugely missing expectations of 70.0.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0c420f75ee5896e70db8e0021e0b5\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"273\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>Markit美国制造业升至62.6</b>（从62.1）超出预期的61.5。</li><li><b>Markit美国服务暴跌至64.8</b>（来自70.4）远远低于预期的70.0。</li></ul><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> That is the<b>lowest reading since March for Services</b>and highest reading ever for Manufacturing.</p><p><blockquote>那就是<b>服务业读数为三月份以来最低</b>也是制造业有史以来的最高读数。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51111068502f0b7011947e68d4fcef9e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Employment issues remained prevalent</b>during June, as numerous panellists mentioned difficulties finding suitably trained candidates for current vacancies.</p><p><blockquote><b>就业问题仍然普遍存在</b>在6月份，许多小组成员提到很难为目前的空缺找到训练有素的候选人。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price pressures also remained elevated in June.</b>The rate of input price inflation softened slightly but was the second-fastest on record. Manufacturers continued to note rapid increases in raw material and fuel costs, whilst service providers highlighted higher wage bills to attract workers plus greater transportation fees and fuel costs.</p><p><blockquote><b>6月份价格压力也仍然很大。</b>投入价格通胀率略有放缓，但仍为有记录以来第二快。制造商继续注意到原材料和燃料成本快速上涨，而服务提供商强调提高工资以吸引工人，加上更高的运输费用和燃料成本。</blockquote></p><p> US continues to be the world's \"strongest\" economy based on these soft surveys, even as the US Composite PMI dropped to 63.9...</p><p><blockquote>根据这些软调查，美国仍然是世界上“最强”的经济体，尽管美国综合PMI降至63.9...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84f14abd854febbd1482ff2bb17c56f6\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> Commenting on the PMI data, Chris Williamson,Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, said:</p><p><blockquote>IHS Markit首席商业经济学家Chris Williamson在评论PMI数据时表示：</blockquote></p><p>   “The early PMI indicators point to further impressive growth of the US economy in June, rounding off an unprecedented growth spurt over the second quarter as a whole.    “While both output growth and inflows of new orders have come off their peaks in both manufacturing and services, this is as much due to capacity constraints limiting firms’ abilities to cope with demand rather than any cooling of the economy.    “Although price gauges have also slipped from May’s all-time highs, it’s clear that the economy continues to run very hot. Prices charged for goods and services are still rising very sharply,  <b>record supply shortages are getting worse rather than better, firms are fighting to fill vacancies and manufacturers’ warehouse stocks are being depleted at a worrying rate as firms struggle to meet demand.</b>    <b>“While the second quarter will likely represent a peaking in the pace of economic growth, a concomitant peaking of inflation is far less assured.”</b>  So - what happens next? Does all that \"hope\" collapse back to reality? Or is \"hope\" the new strategy?</p><p><blockquote>“早期PMI指标显示，6月份美国经济进一步实现令人印象深刻的增长，完成了整个第二季度前所未有的增长。”尽管制造业和服务业的产出增长和新订单流入均已脱离峰值，但这在很大程度上是由于产能限制限制了企业应对需求的能力，而不是经济降温。他说：“虽然价格指标也从5月份的历史高点回落，但很明显，经济仍然非常火爆。商品和服务的价格仍然大幅上涨，<b>创纪录的供应短缺正在变得更糟而不是更好，企业正在努力填补空缺，由于企业难以满足需求，制造商的仓库库存正在以令人担忧的速度耗尽。</b><b>“虽然第二季度可能代表经济增长速度见顶，但随之而来的通胀见顶的确定性要小得多。”</b>那么——接下来会发生什么？所有的“希望”都会崩溃回到现实吗？还是“希望”是新战略？</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cda4e45787d67eefabc511b96083584\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"269\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> Get back to work Mr.Powell and make it so!</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔先生，回去工作吧！</blockquote></p><p> <ul></ul></p><p><blockquote><ul></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US Services Sector Unexpectedly Plunges In June As Manufacturing Survey Hits Record High<blockquote>制造业调查创历史新高，美国6月服务业意外暴跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS Services Sector Unexpectedly Plunges In June As Manufacturing Survey Hits Record High<blockquote>制造业调查创历史新高，美国6月服务业意外暴跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-23 21:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Despite the serial disappointment in hard economic data, 'soft' survey data has continued to soar in 2021 but analysts expected today's Markit PMIs to retrace some of those gains. However, reality was notably different with<b>Manufacturing jumping more than expected as Services plunged</b>...</p><p><blockquote>尽管硬经济数据连续令人失望，但“软”调查数据在2021年继续飙升，但分析师预计今天的Markit PMI将回吐部分涨幅。然而，现实与<b>随着服务业暴跌，制造业增长超出预期</b>...</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Markit US Manufacturing rose to 62.6</b>(from 62.1) beating expectations of 61.5.</li>  <li><b>Markit US Services plunged to 64.8</b>(from 70.4) hugely missing expectations of 70.0.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0c420f75ee5896e70db8e0021e0b5\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"273\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>Markit美国制造业升至62.6</b>（从62.1）超出预期的61.5。</li><li><b>Markit美国服务暴跌至64.8</b>（来自70.4）远远低于预期的70.0。</li></ul><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> That is the<b>lowest reading since March for Services</b>and highest reading ever for Manufacturing.</p><p><blockquote>那就是<b>服务业读数为三月份以来最低</b>也是制造业有史以来的最高读数。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51111068502f0b7011947e68d4fcef9e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Employment issues remained prevalent</b>during June, as numerous panellists mentioned difficulties finding suitably trained candidates for current vacancies.</p><p><blockquote><b>就业问题仍然普遍存在</b>在6月份，许多小组成员提到很难为目前的空缺找到训练有素的候选人。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price pressures also remained elevated in June.</b>The rate of input price inflation softened slightly but was the second-fastest on record. Manufacturers continued to note rapid increases in raw material and fuel costs, whilst service providers highlighted higher wage bills to attract workers plus greater transportation fees and fuel costs.</p><p><blockquote><b>6月份价格压力也仍然很大。</b>投入价格通胀率略有放缓，但仍为有记录以来第二快。制造商继续注意到原材料和燃料成本快速上涨，而服务提供商强调提高工资以吸引工人，加上更高的运输费用和燃料成本。</blockquote></p><p> US continues to be the world's \"strongest\" economy based on these soft surveys, even as the US Composite PMI dropped to 63.9...</p><p><blockquote>根据这些软调查，美国仍然是世界上“最强”的经济体，尽管美国综合PMI降至63.9...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84f14abd854febbd1482ff2bb17c56f6\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> Commenting on the PMI data, Chris Williamson,Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, said:</p><p><blockquote>IHS Markit首席商业经济学家Chris Williamson在评论PMI数据时表示：</blockquote></p><p>   “The early PMI indicators point to further impressive growth of the US economy in June, rounding off an unprecedented growth spurt over the second quarter as a whole.    “While both output growth and inflows of new orders have come off their peaks in both manufacturing and services, this is as much due to capacity constraints limiting firms’ abilities to cope with demand rather than any cooling of the economy.    “Although price gauges have also slipped from May’s all-time highs, it’s clear that the economy continues to run very hot. Prices charged for goods and services are still rising very sharply,  <b>record supply shortages are getting worse rather than better, firms are fighting to fill vacancies and manufacturers’ warehouse stocks are being depleted at a worrying rate as firms struggle to meet demand.</b>    <b>“While the second quarter will likely represent a peaking in the pace of economic growth, a concomitant peaking of inflation is far less assured.”</b>  So - what happens next? Does all that \"hope\" collapse back to reality? Or is \"hope\" the new strategy?</p><p><blockquote>“早期PMI指标显示，6月份美国经济进一步实现令人印象深刻的增长，完成了整个第二季度前所未有的增长。”尽管制造业和服务业的产出增长和新订单流入均已脱离峰值，但这在很大程度上是由于产能限制限制了企业应对需求的能力，而不是经济降温。他说：“虽然价格指标也从5月份的历史高点回落，但很明显，经济仍然非常火爆。商品和服务的价格仍然大幅上涨，<b>创纪录的供应短缺正在变得更糟而不是更好，企业正在努力填补空缺，由于企业难以满足需求，制造商的仓库库存正在以令人担忧的速度耗尽。</b><b>“虽然第二季度可能代表经济增长速度见顶，但随之而来的通胀见顶的确定性要小得多。”</b>那么——接下来会发生什么？所有的“希望”都会崩溃回到现实吗？还是“希望”是新战略？</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cda4e45787d67eefabc511b96083584\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"269\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> Get back to work Mr.Powell and make it so!</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔先生，回去工作吧！</blockquote></p><p> <ul></ul></p><p><blockquote><ul></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/us-services-sector-unexpectedly-plunges-june-manufacturing-survey-hits-record-high\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/us-services-sector-unexpectedly-plunges-june-manufacturing-survey-hits-record-high","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1165465805","content_text":"Despite the serial disappointment in hard economic data, 'soft' survey data has continued to soar in 2021 but analysts expected today's Markit PMIs to retrace some of those gains. However, reality was notably different withManufacturing jumping more than expected as Services plunged...\n\nMarkit US Manufacturing rose to 62.6(from 62.1) beating expectations of 61.5.\nMarkit US Services plunged to 64.8(from 70.4) hugely missing expectations of 70.0.\n\nSource: Bloomberg\nThat is thelowest reading since March for Servicesand highest reading ever for Manufacturing.\nEmployment issues remained prevalentduring June, as numerous panellists mentioned difficulties finding suitably trained candidates for current vacancies.\nPrice pressures also remained elevated in June.The rate of input price inflation softened slightly but was the second-fastest on record. Manufacturers continued to note rapid increases in raw material and fuel costs, whilst service providers highlighted higher wage bills to attract workers plus greater transportation fees and fuel costs.\nUS continues to be the world's \"strongest\" economy based on these soft surveys, even as the US Composite PMI dropped to 63.9...\nSource: Bloomberg\nCommenting on the PMI data, Chris Williamson,Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, said:\n\n “The early PMI indicators point to further impressive growth of the US economy in June, rounding off an unprecedented growth spurt over the second quarter as a whole.\n\n\n “While both output growth and inflows of new orders have come off their peaks in both manufacturing and services, this is as much due to capacity constraints limiting firms’ abilities to cope with demand rather than any cooling of the economy.\n\n\n “Although price gauges have also slipped from May’s all-time highs, it’s clear that the economy continues to run very hot. Prices charged for goods and services are still rising very sharply,\n record supply shortages are getting worse rather than better, firms are fighting to fill vacancies and manufacturers’ warehouse stocks are being depleted at a worrying rate as firms struggle to meet demand.\n\n\n“While the second quarter will likely represent a peaking in the pace of economic growth, a concomitant peaking of inflation is far less assured.”\n\nSo - what happens next? Does all that \"hope\" collapse back to reality? Or is \"hope\" the new strategy?\nSource: Bloomberg\nGet back to work Mr.Powell and make it so!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1834,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":123164065,"gmtCreate":1624412586457,"gmtModify":1631891477349,"author":{"id":"3581999424680567","authorId":"3581999424680567","name":"JoanY","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581999424680567","authorIdStr":"3581999424680567"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Sad","listText":"Sad","text":"Sad","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123164065","repostId":"1164759713","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3250,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}