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2021-08-08

The underlying is still diversification regardless

How 10 of the world’s smartest investors can help you build your perfect portfolio<blockquote>世界上10位最聪明的投资者如何帮助您建立完美的投资组合</blockquote>

2021-07-13

It’s raining meatballs!

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2021-07-13

So much faith in Tesla

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2021-07-01

Basically, review review review

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2021-06-30

What goes up, must come down 📈📉

Investors Are Turning Bearish on S&P 500 Stocks<blockquote>投资者开始看跌标普500股市</blockquote>

2021-06-30

Back to the big boys of automobiles

Tesla is under pressure from Nio, but these are the best EV investments right now, analysts say<blockquote>分析师表示，特斯拉面临蔚来的压力，但这些是目前最好的电动汽车投资</blockquote>

2021-06-27

Sexy vs boring, why not both?

Ford Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote>

2021-06-26

“Musk tweeting, again” [LOL]

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2021-06-24

How many Tesla cars in Tibet?

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2021-06-23

In the long running

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2021-06-16

Like what Buffett said, “be fearful when others are greedy”

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2021-06-16

AAPL is way ahead of its competition

Why Goldman Sachs Changed Its Mind On Apple Stock<blockquote>高盛为何改变对苹果股票的看法</blockquote>

2021-06-15

Battery swap powering NIO on

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2021-06-15

Silver, oil and copper?

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2021-06-13

Good article! Hit every head of the nails

Don’t be fooled — inflation is a big risk for stock market investors. Here’s how to prepare<blockquote>不要被愚弄了——通货膨胀对股市投资者来说是一个很大的风险。以下是如何准备</blockquote>

2021-06-11

Good news

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2021-06-11

Seems bright

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2021-06-11

This is so exciting!

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2021-06-10

Good leads

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2021-06-10

If you smellllalalalalalalala… what the Rock…. issss cooookinggggggg 🤨

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underlying is still diversification regardless","listText":"The underlying is still diversification regardless","text":"The underlying is still diversification regardless","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/891289216","repostId":"1183941926","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183941926","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628255252,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1183941926?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-06 21:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How 10 of the world’s smartest investors can help you build your perfect portfolio<blockquote>世界上10位最聪明的投资者如何帮助您建立完美的投资组合</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183941926","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Listen to Jeremy Siegel, Charles Ellis, Jack Bogle, Robert Shiller and others.The other four are portfolio managers, investors and bestselling authors who have sold millions of investment books, including The Vanguard Group’s founder Jack Bogle; the “Bond Guru,” Marty Leibowitz; the “Wisest Man on Wall Street” and Greenwich Associates founder Charles Ellis; and the “Wizard of Wharton,” Jeremy Siegel.As the creator of the first index mutual fund, Bogle’s portfolio was all about stock and bond ind","content":"<p>  <b>Listen to Jeremy Siegel, Charles Ellis, Jack Bogle, Robert Shiller and others.</b>  Is there a Perfect Portfolio for investors?</p><p><blockquote><b>听听杰里米·西格尔、查尔斯·埃利斯、杰克·博格尔、罗伯特·席勒等人的意见。</b>投资者有完美的投资组合吗？</blockquote></p><p> We posed this question to 10 of the most respected pioneers in the investment community. Six have Nobel Prizes in Economics: Harry Markowitz, the founder of Modern Portfolio Theory, the basis of the modern investment portfolio; his protégé William Sharpe, creator of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and the beta risk measure that changed how we think about risk and reward in the financial markets; Eugene Fama, who developed the Efficient Market Hypothesis; Myron Scholes and Robert Merton, two of the co-creators of the Black-Scholes/Merton option pricing model; and Robert Shiller, the behavioral economist whose work challenged the notion of market efficiency.</p><p><blockquote>我们向投资界最受尊敬的10位先驱提出了这个问题。六位获得诺贝尔经济学奖：哈里·马科维茨，现代投资组合理论的创始人，现代投资组合的基础；他的得意门生威廉·夏普（William Sharpe）是资本资产定价模型（CAPM）和贝塔风险衡量标准的创始人，改变了我们对金融市场风险和回报的看法；尤金·法玛，提出了有效市场假说；迈伦·斯科尔斯和罗伯特·默顿，布莱克-斯科尔斯/默顿期权定价模型的两位共同创始人；还有行为经济学家罗伯特·席勒，他的工作挑战了市场效率的概念。</blockquote></p><p> The other four are portfolio managers, investors and bestselling authors who have sold millions of investment books, including The Vanguard Group’s founder Jack Bogle; the “Bond Guru,” Marty Leibowitz; the “Wisest Man on Wall Street” and Greenwich Associates founder Charles Ellis; and the “Wizard of Wharton,” Jeremy Siegel.</p><p><blockquote>另外四位是投资组合经理、投资者和畅销书作家，他们已售出数百万本投资书籍，其中包括先锋集团创始人杰克·博格尔；“邦德大师”马蒂·莱博维茨；“华尔街最聪明的人”、格林威治联合创始人查尔斯·埃利斯；还有“沃顿商学院的巫师”杰里米·西格尔。</blockquote></p><p> It’s no surprise that there isn’t consensus among their suggestions, given their varied backgrounds and interests. The different viewpoints of these financial luminaries illustrate the complexity of portfolio management—one size clearly doesn’t fit all.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于他们不同的背景和兴趣，他们的建议没有达成共识也就不足为奇了。这些金融名人的不同观点说明了投资组合管理的复杂性——一种尺寸显然不能适合所有人。</blockquote></p><p> Think of the Perfect Portfolios of our experts as building blocks for your own Perfect Portfolio, collectively capable of accommodating the goals and constraints of all investors, if used in the right combination.</p><p><blockquote>将我们专家的完美投资组合视为您自己的完美投资组合的构建模块，如果以正确的组合使用，它们共同能够适应所有投资者的目标和限制。</blockquote></p><p> Markowitz suggests that first and foremost, you should diversify. Focus only on portfolios of securities, and in particular, those that have the highest level of expected returns for a given level of risk, Markowitz’s famous efficient frontier. The same concept applies across asset classes like bonds, real estate and commodities. The key for the investor is to find securities and asset classes with low correlations to each other, so that movements in one are not necessarily reflected in the others.</p><p><blockquote>马科维茨建议，首先也是最重要的，你应该多元化。只关注证券投资组合，特别是那些在给定风险水平下具有最高预期回报的证券，即马科维茨著名的有效前沿。同样的概念也适用于债券、房地产和大宗商品等资产类别。投资者的关键是找到彼此相关性较低的证券和资产类别，这样一种证券和资产类别的变动不一定反映在其他证券和资产类别中。</blockquote></p><p> Sharpe’s Perfect Portfolio is just what his famous Capital Asset Pricing Model suggests: investing in the market as a whole. Sharpe recommends a U.S. total stock market fund, a non-U.S. total stock market fund, a U.S. total bond market fund, and a non-U.S. total bond market fund.</p><p><blockquote>夏普的完美投资组合正是他著名的资本资产定价模型所暗示的：投资于整个市场。夏普推荐一只美国总股市基金、一只非美国总股市基金、一只美国总债市基金、一只非美国总债市基金。</blockquote></p><p> Fama and his collaborator Ken French created a model that starts with Sharpe’s CAPM and augments it with two other factors. One captures the difference in returns between value and growth stocks, while the other captures the difference between stocks in companies with small and large market capitalizations. Fama suggests tilting your diversified portfolio toward value stocks and small-cap stocks, both of which tend to do well over time.</p><p><blockquote>Fama和他的合作者Ken French创建了一个模型，从Sharpe的CAPM开始，并用另外两个因素对其进行了增强。一个捕捉价值型股票和成长型股票之间的回报差异，而另一个捕捉小市值和大市值公司股票之间的差异。Fama建议将您的多元化投资组合向价值股和小盘股倾斜，这两种股票随着时间的推移往往会表现良好。</blockquote></p><p> As the creator of the first index mutual fund, Bogle’s portfolio was all about stock and bond index funds, such as Vanguard’s ETF that tracks the S&amp;P 500 index SPX, +0.60%. His mantra was to lower your costs through index funds and not take actions that might destroy value: “Don’t do something, just stand there!”</p><p><blockquote>作为第一只指数共同基金的创始人，Bogle的投资组合完全是股票和债券指数基金，例如Vanguard跟踪标普500指数SPX的ETF，+0.60%。他的口头禅是通过指数基金降低成本，不要采取可能破坏价值的行动：“什么都不要做，就站在那里！”</blockquote></p><p> For Scholes, the Perfect Portfolio is about risk management. Your investment success will depend most on avoiding the downside “tail risks,” rare but severe stock market downturns such as the financial crisis of 2007–2009 or the COVID-19 pandemic, while capitalizing on the positive “tail gains.”</p><p><blockquote>对于斯科尔斯来说，完美的投资组合关乎风险管理。您的投资成功将主要取决于避免下行“尾部风险”，即罕见但严重的股市低迷，例如2007-2009年的金融危机或COVID-19大流行，同时利用积极的“尾部收益”。</blockquote></p><p> Pay attention to what the derivatives markets such as the VIX volatility index VIX, -1.39% are telling you. For example, when the VIX is at a level below its historical average, you may feel more comfortable investing a greater proportion of your assets in risky stocks.</p><p><blockquote>关注VIX波动率指数VIX,-1.39%等衍生品市场告诉你什么。例如，当VIX处于低于历史平均水平的水平时，您可能会更愿意将更大比例的资产投资于风险股票。</blockquote></p><p> For Merton, ultimately, the Perfect Portfolio should be your very own risk-free asset, like the inflation-protected government bond TIPS. For your retirement goal, ideally you would take your savings at retirement, and buy an annuity that would provide a lifetime income to meet your anticipated needs.</p><p><blockquote>对于默顿来说，最终，完美的投资组合应该是您自己的无风险资产，例如通胀保值政府债券TIPS。对于您的退休目标，理想情况下，您应该在退休时拿出您的积蓄，购买一份年金，提供终身收入以满足您的预期需求。</blockquote></p><p> Leibowitz’s Perfect Portfolio is about the amount of risk you can personally bear. Be prepared to try to make some tough judgment calls, and consider all of your circumstances, including potential life events, current taxes and estate taxes. In addition to equities, you should include bonds to reduce its overall volatility. Have a contingency plan to deal with serious adverse events.</p><p><blockquote>莱博维茨的完美投资组合是关于你个人可以承受的风险大小。评级，请准备好做出一些艰难的判断，并考虑您的所有情况，包括潜在的生活事件、当前税收和遗产税。除了股票，你还应该包括债券，以降低其整体波动性。有应对严重不良事件的应急计划。</blockquote></p><p> For Shiller, your Perfect Portfolio should be widely diversified, not only across major asset classes, but internationally as well. Place a heavier than typical weight in stocks around the world, where Shiller’s CAPE ratios—that is, cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratios—are relatively low.</p><p><blockquote>对于希勒来说，你的完美投资组合应该是广泛多元化的，不仅要跨越主要资产类别，还要跨越国际。对世界各地的股票给予比通常更重的权重，这些股票的席勒CAPE比率（即周期性调整后的市盈率）相对较低。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For Ellis, one of the original advocates of passive investing, your Perfect Portfolio should of course include index funds, especially if you want to have a good chance of being in the top 20% of funds over the next 20 years. You should invest in bond index funds and low-cost international index funds, such as the MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, and Far East) index. Pay attention to your taxes.</p><p><blockquote>对于被动投资的最初倡导者之一埃利斯来说，你的完美投资组合当然应该包括指数基金，尤其是如果你想在未来20年内有很好的机会进入前20%的基金。您应该投资债券指数基金和低成本的国际指数基金，例如MSCI EAFE（欧洲、澳大拉西亚和远东）指数。注意你的税收。</blockquote></p><p> And Siegel encourages you to have reasonable expectations in line with financial history, no surprise for the author of the bestselling “Stocks for the Long Run”. The longer your investment horizon, the greater proportion of your Perfect Portfolio should be in stocks. Consider developing-country stocks. For fixed-income investments, consider TIPS.</p><p><blockquote>西格尔鼓励你有符合金融历史的合理预期，这对于畅销书《长期股票》的作者来说并不奇怪。你的投资期限越长，你的完美投资组合中股票的比例就应该越大。以发展中国家的股票为例。对于固定收益投资，请考虑提示。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, as you build your Perfect Portfolio, reflect on your degree of risk aversion, your earning power, the magnitude of your current and future desired wealth, and the magnitude of your current and future financial needs. To assist you, we have created a four-question survey to help you discover where you fit in among 16 types of investors. It then points you toward your Perfect Portfolio and an action that may help you achieve it.</p><p><blockquote>最后，当你建立完美的投资组合时，反思你的风险规避程度、你的盈利能力、你当前和未来想要的财富的规模，以及你当前和未来的财务需求的规模。为了帮助您，我们创建了一个包含四个问题的调查，帮助您发现自己在16种类型的投资者中的位置。然后，它会给你指出你的完美投资组合和一个可能帮助你实现它的行动。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How 10 of the world’s smartest investors can help you build your perfect portfolio<blockquote>世界上10位最聪明的投资者如何帮助您建立完美的投资组合</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow 10 of the world’s smartest investors can help you build your perfect portfolio<blockquote>世界上10位最聪明的投资者如何帮助您建立完美的投资组合</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-06 21:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>Listen to Jeremy Siegel, Charles Ellis, Jack Bogle, Robert Shiller and others.</b>  Is there a Perfect Portfolio for investors?</p><p><blockquote><b>听听杰里米·西格尔、查尔斯·埃利斯、杰克·博格尔、罗伯特·席勒等人的意见。</b>投资者有完美的投资组合吗？</blockquote></p><p> We posed this question to 10 of the most respected pioneers in the investment community. Six have Nobel Prizes in Economics: Harry Markowitz, the founder of Modern Portfolio Theory, the basis of the modern investment portfolio; his protégé William Sharpe, creator of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and the beta risk measure that changed how we think about risk and reward in the financial markets; Eugene Fama, who developed the Efficient Market Hypothesis; Myron Scholes and Robert Merton, two of the co-creators of the Black-Scholes/Merton option pricing model; and Robert Shiller, the behavioral economist whose work challenged the notion of market efficiency.</p><p><blockquote>我们向投资界最受尊敬的10位先驱提出了这个问题。六位获得诺贝尔经济学奖：哈里·马科维茨，现代投资组合理论的创始人，现代投资组合的基础；他的得意门生威廉·夏普（William Sharpe）是资本资产定价模型（CAPM）和贝塔风险衡量标准的创始人，改变了我们对金融市场风险和回报的看法；尤金·法玛，提出了有效市场假说；迈伦·斯科尔斯和罗伯特·默顿，布莱克-斯科尔斯/默顿期权定价模型的两位共同创始人；还有行为经济学家罗伯特·席勒，他的工作挑战了市场效率的概念。</blockquote></p><p> The other four are portfolio managers, investors and bestselling authors who have sold millions of investment books, including The Vanguard Group’s founder Jack Bogle; the “Bond Guru,” Marty Leibowitz; the “Wisest Man on Wall Street” and Greenwich Associates founder Charles Ellis; and the “Wizard of Wharton,” Jeremy Siegel.</p><p><blockquote>另外四位是投资组合经理、投资者和畅销书作家，他们已售出数百万本投资书籍，其中包括先锋集团创始人杰克·博格尔；“邦德大师”马蒂·莱博维茨；“华尔街最聪明的人”、格林威治联合创始人查尔斯·埃利斯；还有“沃顿商学院的巫师”杰里米·西格尔。</blockquote></p><p> It’s no surprise that there isn’t consensus among their suggestions, given their varied backgrounds and interests. The different viewpoints of these financial luminaries illustrate the complexity of portfolio management—one size clearly doesn’t fit all.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于他们不同的背景和兴趣，他们的建议没有达成共识也就不足为奇了。这些金融名人的不同观点说明了投资组合管理的复杂性——一种尺寸显然不能适合所有人。</blockquote></p><p> Think of the Perfect Portfolios of our experts as building blocks for your own Perfect Portfolio, collectively capable of accommodating the goals and constraints of all investors, if used in the right combination.</p><p><blockquote>将我们专家的完美投资组合视为您自己的完美投资组合的构建模块，如果以正确的组合使用，它们共同能够适应所有投资者的目标和限制。</blockquote></p><p> Markowitz suggests that first and foremost, you should diversify. Focus only on portfolios of securities, and in particular, those that have the highest level of expected returns for a given level of risk, Markowitz’s famous efficient frontier. The same concept applies across asset classes like bonds, real estate and commodities. The key for the investor is to find securities and asset classes with low correlations to each other, so that movements in one are not necessarily reflected in the others.</p><p><blockquote>马科维茨建议，首先也是最重要的，你应该多元化。只关注证券投资组合，特别是那些在给定风险水平下具有最高预期回报的证券，即马科维茨著名的有效前沿。同样的概念也适用于债券、房地产和大宗商品等资产类别。投资者的关键是找到彼此相关性较低的证券和资产类别，这样一种证券和资产类别的变动不一定反映在其他证券和资产类别中。</blockquote></p><p> Sharpe’s Perfect Portfolio is just what his famous Capital Asset Pricing Model suggests: investing in the market as a whole. Sharpe recommends a U.S. total stock market fund, a non-U.S. total stock market fund, a U.S. total bond market fund, and a non-U.S. total bond market fund.</p><p><blockquote>夏普的完美投资组合正是他著名的资本资产定价模型所暗示的：投资于整个市场。夏普推荐一只美国总股市基金、一只非美国总股市基金、一只美国总债市基金、一只非美国总债市基金。</blockquote></p><p> Fama and his collaborator Ken French created a model that starts with Sharpe’s CAPM and augments it with two other factors. One captures the difference in returns between value and growth stocks, while the other captures the difference between stocks in companies with small and large market capitalizations. Fama suggests tilting your diversified portfolio toward value stocks and small-cap stocks, both of which tend to do well over time.</p><p><blockquote>Fama和他的合作者Ken French创建了一个模型，从Sharpe的CAPM开始，并用另外两个因素对其进行了增强。一个捕捉价值型股票和成长型股票之间的回报差异，而另一个捕捉小市值和大市值公司股票之间的差异。Fama建议将您的多元化投资组合向价值股和小盘股倾斜，这两种股票随着时间的推移往往会表现良好。</blockquote></p><p> As the creator of the first index mutual fund, Bogle’s portfolio was all about stock and bond index funds, such as Vanguard’s ETF that tracks the S&amp;P 500 index SPX, +0.60%. His mantra was to lower your costs through index funds and not take actions that might destroy value: “Don’t do something, just stand there!”</p><p><blockquote>作为第一只指数共同基金的创始人，Bogle的投资组合完全是股票和债券指数基金，例如Vanguard跟踪标普500指数SPX的ETF，+0.60%。他的口头禅是通过指数基金降低成本，不要采取可能破坏价值的行动：“什么都不要做，就站在那里！”</blockquote></p><p> For Scholes, the Perfect Portfolio is about risk management. Your investment success will depend most on avoiding the downside “tail risks,” rare but severe stock market downturns such as the financial crisis of 2007–2009 or the COVID-19 pandemic, while capitalizing on the positive “tail gains.”</p><p><blockquote>对于斯科尔斯来说，完美的投资组合关乎风险管理。您的投资成功将主要取决于避免下行“尾部风险”，即罕见但严重的股市低迷，例如2007-2009年的金融危机或COVID-19大流行，同时利用积极的“尾部收益”。</blockquote></p><p> Pay attention to what the derivatives markets such as the VIX volatility index VIX, -1.39% are telling you. For example, when the VIX is at a level below its historical average, you may feel more comfortable investing a greater proportion of your assets in risky stocks.</p><p><blockquote>关注VIX波动率指数VIX,-1.39%等衍生品市场告诉你什么。例如，当VIX处于低于历史平均水平的水平时，您可能会更愿意将更大比例的资产投资于风险股票。</blockquote></p><p> For Merton, ultimately, the Perfect Portfolio should be your very own risk-free asset, like the inflation-protected government bond TIPS. For your retirement goal, ideally you would take your savings at retirement, and buy an annuity that would provide a lifetime income to meet your anticipated needs.</p><p><blockquote>对于默顿来说，最终，完美的投资组合应该是您自己的无风险资产，例如通胀保值政府债券TIPS。对于您的退休目标，理想情况下，您应该在退休时拿出您的积蓄，购买一份年金，提供终身收入以满足您的预期需求。</blockquote></p><p> Leibowitz’s Perfect Portfolio is about the amount of risk you can personally bear. Be prepared to try to make some tough judgment calls, and consider all of your circumstances, including potential life events, current taxes and estate taxes. In addition to equities, you should include bonds to reduce its overall volatility. Have a contingency plan to deal with serious adverse events.</p><p><blockquote>莱博维茨的完美投资组合是关于你个人可以承受的风险大小。评级，请准备好做出一些艰难的判断，并考虑您的所有情况，包括潜在的生活事件、当前税收和遗产税。除了股票，你还应该包括债券，以降低其整体波动性。有应对严重不良事件的应急计划。</blockquote></p><p> For Shiller, your Perfect Portfolio should be widely diversified, not only across major asset classes, but internationally as well. Place a heavier than typical weight in stocks around the world, where Shiller’s CAPE ratios—that is, cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratios—are relatively low.</p><p><blockquote>对于希勒来说，你的完美投资组合应该是广泛多元化的，不仅要跨越主要资产类别，还要跨越国际。对世界各地的股票给予比通常更重的权重，这些股票的席勒CAPE比率（即周期性调整后的市盈率）相对较低。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For Ellis, one of the original advocates of passive investing, your Perfect Portfolio should of course include index funds, especially if you want to have a good chance of being in the top 20% of funds over the next 20 years. You should invest in bond index funds and low-cost international index funds, such as the MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, and Far East) index. Pay attention to your taxes.</p><p><blockquote>对于被动投资的最初倡导者之一埃利斯来说，你的完美投资组合当然应该包括指数基金，尤其是如果你想在未来20年内有很好的机会进入前20%的基金。您应该投资债券指数基金和低成本的国际指数基金，例如MSCI EAFE（欧洲、澳大拉西亚和远东）指数。注意你的税收。</blockquote></p><p> And Siegel encourages you to have reasonable expectations in line with financial history, no surprise for the author of the bestselling “Stocks for the Long Run”. The longer your investment horizon, the greater proportion of your Perfect Portfolio should be in stocks. Consider developing-country stocks. For fixed-income investments, consider TIPS.</p><p><blockquote>西格尔鼓励你有符合金融历史的合理预期，这对于畅销书《长期股票》的作者来说并不奇怪。你的投资期限越长，你的完美投资组合中股票的比例就应该越大。以发展中国家的股票为例。对于固定收益投资，请考虑提示。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, as you build your Perfect Portfolio, reflect on your degree of risk aversion, your earning power, the magnitude of your current and future desired wealth, and the magnitude of your current and future financial needs. To assist you, we have created a four-question survey to help you discover where you fit in among 16 types of investors. It then points you toward your Perfect Portfolio and an action that may help you achieve it.</p><p><blockquote>最后，当你建立完美的投资组合时，反思你的风险规避程度、你的盈利能力、你当前和未来想要的财富的规模，以及你当前和未来的财务需求的规模。为了帮助您，我们创建了一个包含四个问题的调查，帮助您发现自己在16种类型的投资者中的位置。然后，它会给你指出你的完美投资组合和一个可能帮助你实现它的行动。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-10-of-the-worlds-smartest-investors-can-help-you-build-your-perfect-portfolio-11628177690?siteid=yhoof2\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-10-of-the-worlds-smartest-investors-can-help-you-build-your-perfect-portfolio-11628177690?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183941926","content_text":"Listen to Jeremy Siegel, Charles Ellis, Jack Bogle, Robert Shiller and others.\n\nIs there a Perfect Portfolio for investors?\nWe posed this question to 10 of the most respected pioneers in the investment community. Six have Nobel Prizes in Economics: Harry Markowitz, the founder of Modern Portfolio Theory, the basis of the modern investment portfolio; his protégé William Sharpe, creator of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and the beta risk measure that changed how we think about risk and reward in the financial markets; Eugene Fama, who developed the Efficient Market Hypothesis; Myron Scholes and Robert Merton, two of the co-creators of the Black-Scholes/Merton option pricing model; and Robert Shiller, the behavioral economist whose work challenged the notion of market efficiency.\nThe other four are portfolio managers, investors and bestselling authors who have sold millions of investment books, including The Vanguard Group’s founder Jack Bogle; the “Bond Guru,” Marty Leibowitz; the “Wisest Man on Wall Street” and Greenwich Associates founder Charles Ellis; and the “Wizard of Wharton,” Jeremy Siegel.\nIt’s no surprise that there isn’t consensus among their suggestions, given their varied backgrounds and interests. The different viewpoints of these financial luminaries illustrate the complexity of portfolio management—one size clearly doesn’t fit all.\nThink of the Perfect Portfolios of our experts as building blocks for your own Perfect Portfolio, collectively capable of accommodating the goals and constraints of all investors, if used in the right combination.\nMarkowitz suggests that first and foremost, you should diversify. Focus only on portfolios of securities, and in particular, those that have the highest level of expected returns for a given level of risk, Markowitz’s famous efficient frontier. The same concept applies across asset classes like bonds, real estate and commodities. The key for the investor is to find securities and asset classes with low correlations to each other, so that movements in one are not necessarily reflected in the others.\nSharpe’s Perfect Portfolio is just what his famous Capital Asset Pricing Model suggests: investing in the market as a whole. Sharpe recommends a U.S. total stock market fund, a non-U.S. total stock market fund, a U.S. total bond market fund, and a non-U.S. total bond market fund.\nFama and his collaborator Ken French created a model that starts with Sharpe’s CAPM and augments it with two other factors. One captures the difference in returns between value and growth stocks, while the other captures the difference between stocks in companies with small and large market capitalizations. Fama suggests tilting your diversified portfolio toward value stocks and small-cap stocks, both of which tend to do well over time.\nAs the creator of the first index mutual fund, Bogle’s portfolio was all about stock and bond index funds, such as Vanguard’s ETF that tracks the S&P 500 index SPX, +0.60%. His mantra was to lower your costs through index funds and not take actions that might destroy value: “Don’t do something, just stand there!”\nFor Scholes, the Perfect Portfolio is about risk management. Your investment success will depend most on avoiding the downside “tail risks,” rare but severe stock market downturns such as the financial crisis of 2007–2009 or the COVID-19 pandemic, while capitalizing on the positive “tail gains.”\nPay attention to what the derivatives markets such as the VIX volatility index VIX, -1.39% are telling you. For example, when the VIX is at a level below its historical average, you may feel more comfortable investing a greater proportion of your assets in risky stocks.\nFor Merton, ultimately, the Perfect Portfolio should be your very own risk-free asset, like the inflation-protected government bond TIPS. For your retirement goal, ideally you would take your savings at retirement, and buy an annuity that would provide a lifetime income to meet your anticipated needs.\nLeibowitz’s Perfect Portfolio is about the amount of risk you can personally bear. Be prepared to try to make some tough judgment calls, and consider all of your circumstances, including potential life events, current taxes and estate taxes. In addition to equities, you should include bonds to reduce its overall volatility. Have a contingency plan to deal with serious adverse events.\nFor Shiller, your Perfect Portfolio should be widely diversified, not only across major asset classes, but internationally as well. Place a heavier than typical weight in stocks around the world, where Shiller’s CAPE ratios—that is, cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratios—are relatively low.\nFor Ellis, one of the original advocates of passive investing, your Perfect Portfolio should of course include index funds, especially if you want to have a good chance of being in the top 20% of funds over the next 20 years. You should invest in bond index funds and low-cost international index funds, such as the MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, and Far East) index. Pay attention to your taxes.\nAnd Siegel encourages you to have reasonable expectations in line with financial history, no surprise for the author of the bestselling “Stocks for the Long Run”. The longer your investment horizon, the greater proportion of your Perfect Portfolio should be in stocks. Consider developing-country stocks. For fixed-income investments, consider TIPS.\nFinally, as you build your Perfect Portfolio, reflect on your degree of risk aversion, your earning power, the magnitude of your current and future desired wealth, and the magnitude of your current and future financial needs. To assist you, we have created a four-question survey to help you discover where you fit in among 16 types of investors. It then points you toward your Perfect Portfolio and an action that may help you achieve it.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2004,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":145958035,"gmtCreate":1626187217027,"gmtModify":1633929236713,"author":{"id":"3581982942860939","authorId":"3581982942860939","name":"SimS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581982942860939","idStr":"3581982942860939"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"It’s raining meatballs!","listText":"It’s raining meatballs!","text":"It’s raining meatballs!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/145958035","repostId":"2151561465","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3132,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":142625229,"gmtCreate":1626147701161,"gmtModify":1633929640155,"author":{"id":"3581982942860939","authorId":"3581982942860939","name":"SimS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581982942860939","idStr":"3581982942860939"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"So much faith in Tesla","listText":"So much faith in Tesla","text":"So much faith in Tesla","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/142625229","repostId":"1126477651","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2645,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":158926771,"gmtCreate":1625124763893,"gmtModify":1633944532014,"author":{"id":"3581982942860939","authorId":"3581982942860939","name":"SimS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581982942860939","idStr":"3581982942860939"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Basically, review review review","listText":"Basically, review review review","text":"Basically, review review review","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/158926771","repostId":"1198389317","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2341,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153568606,"gmtCreate":1625035908305,"gmtModify":1633945580608,"author":{"id":"3581982942860939","authorId":"3581982942860939","name":"SimS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581982942860939","idStr":"3581982942860939"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"What goes up, must come down 📈📉","listText":"What goes up, must come down 📈📉","text":"What goes up, must come down 📈📉","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/153568606","repostId":"1153724402","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1153724402","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625034985,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1153724402?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-30 14:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Investors Are Turning Bearish on S&P 500 Stocks<blockquote>投资者开始看跌标普500股市</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153724402","media":"Barrons","summary":"Many strategists haven’t expected big gains in the stock market for the rest of the year. Now invest","content":"<p>Many strategists haven’t expected big gains in the stock market for the rest of the year. Now investors are signaling weak confidence in stocks from here.</p><p><blockquote>许多策略师预计今年剩余时间股市不会出现大幅上涨。现在投资者从这里发出了对股票信心疲软的信号。</blockquote></p><p> Strategists do expect a weak market for the coming quarters. Their average price target on the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;is a touch above $4,150, according to&nbsp;Citigroup&nbsp;data. That’s a roughly 3% drop from the index’s current level. Even the more-bullish strategists aren’t exactly giving a vote of confidence to the market;Jefferies recently raised its price target on the index to $4,350, which represents a mere gain of about 1%.</p><p><blockquote>策略师确实预计未来几个季度市场将疲软。根据花旗集团的数据，他们对标准普尔500指数的平均目标价略高于4,150美元。这比该指数当前水平下降了约3%。即使是更乐观的策略师也没有对市场投下信任票；杰富瑞(Jefferies)最近将该指数的目标价上调至4,350美元，仅上涨约1%。</blockquote></p><p> But what’s more worrisome is that investors—the people who actually buy and sell shares, and move the market—are also now pessimistic on stocks. Citi’s survey of almost 70 institutional funds shows that on average money managers see the S&amp;P 500 price target falling to $4,269 by the end of this year. That’s a 0.6% drop from here. Just over a quarter of survey respondents said the top two risks are inflation, and a Federal Reserve policy mistake. Less than 10% of participants said the biggest risks lie elsewhere.</p><p><blockquote>但更令人担忧的是，投资者——实际买卖股票并推动市场的人——现在也对股票持悲观态度。花旗对近70家机构基金的调查显示，平均而言，基金经理预计标普500的目标价到今年年底将降至4,269美元。比这里下降了0.6%。超过四分之一的受访者表示，最大的两个风险是通货膨胀和美联储政策错误。不到10%的参与者表示，最大的风险在于其他地方。</blockquote></p><p> That finding is consistent with recent market behavior and commentary. If&nbsp;recent inflation&nbsp;is persistent enough, it&nbsp;could wipe off more than 15% from the S&amp;P 500, as higher inflation erodes the value of future profits. If the Fed, in response, hikes interest rates too quickly, it could dent growth—and recently the stocks that are most sensitive to the perceived health of the economy&nbsp;have underperformed.</p><p><blockquote>这一发现与最近的市场行为和评论一致。如果最近的通胀足够持续，它可能会从标普500中抹去15%以上，因为更高的通胀会侵蚀未来利润的价值。如果美联储过快加息，可能会削弱经济增长——而最近对经济健康状况最敏感的股票表现不佳。</blockquote></p><p> One point of optimism, though, is that the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500 hit several new highs this week, indicating that it still has more juice. To be sure,technical analysis shows the index could rise at least 3%&nbsp;from here—and maybe it can. Stocks could conceivably keep rising in the short-term.</p><p><blockquote>不过，乐观的一点是，标准普尔500指数本周创下了几个新高，表明它仍然有更多的动力。可以肯定的是，技术分析显示该指数可能会从这里上涨至少3%——也许确实如此。可以想象，股市在短期内可能会继续上涨。</blockquote></p><p> But investors are nervous about looming risks that could bring stocks down by year-end.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者对迫在眉睫的风险感到紧张，这些风险可能会在年底前导致股市下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Investors Are Turning Bearish on S&P 500 Stocks<blockquote>投资者开始看跌标普500股市</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvestors Are Turning Bearish on S&P 500 Stocks<blockquote>投资者开始看跌标普500股市</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-30 14:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Many strategists haven’t expected big gains in the stock market for the rest of the year. Now investors are signaling weak confidence in stocks from here.</p><p><blockquote>许多策略师预计今年剩余时间股市不会出现大幅上涨。现在投资者从这里发出了对股票信心疲软的信号。</blockquote></p><p> Strategists do expect a weak market for the coming quarters. Their average price target on the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;is a touch above $4,150, according to&nbsp;Citigroup&nbsp;data. That’s a roughly 3% drop from the index’s current level. Even the more-bullish strategists aren’t exactly giving a vote of confidence to the market;Jefferies recently raised its price target on the index to $4,350, which represents a mere gain of about 1%.</p><p><blockquote>策略师确实预计未来几个季度市场将疲软。根据花旗集团的数据，他们对标准普尔500指数的平均目标价略高于4,150美元。这比该指数当前水平下降了约3%。即使是更乐观的策略师也没有对市场投下信任票；杰富瑞(Jefferies)最近将该指数的目标价上调至4,350美元，仅上涨约1%。</blockquote></p><p> But what’s more worrisome is that investors—the people who actually buy and sell shares, and move the market—are also now pessimistic on stocks. Citi’s survey of almost 70 institutional funds shows that on average money managers see the S&amp;P 500 price target falling to $4,269 by the end of this year. That’s a 0.6% drop from here. Just over a quarter of survey respondents said the top two risks are inflation, and a Federal Reserve policy mistake. Less than 10% of participants said the biggest risks lie elsewhere.</p><p><blockquote>但更令人担忧的是，投资者——实际买卖股票并推动市场的人——现在也对股票持悲观态度。花旗对近70家机构基金的调查显示，平均而言，基金经理预计标普500的目标价到今年年底将降至4,269美元。比这里下降了0.6%。超过四分之一的受访者表示，最大的两个风险是通货膨胀和美联储政策错误。不到10%的参与者表示，最大的风险在于其他地方。</blockquote></p><p> That finding is consistent with recent market behavior and commentary. If&nbsp;recent inflation&nbsp;is persistent enough, it&nbsp;could wipe off more than 15% from the S&amp;P 500, as higher inflation erodes the value of future profits. If the Fed, in response, hikes interest rates too quickly, it could dent growth—and recently the stocks that are most sensitive to the perceived health of the economy&nbsp;have underperformed.</p><p><blockquote>这一发现与最近的市场行为和评论一致。如果最近的通胀足够持续，它可能会从标普500中抹去15%以上，因为更高的通胀会侵蚀未来利润的价值。如果美联储过快加息，可能会削弱经济增长——而最近对经济健康状况最敏感的股票表现不佳。</blockquote></p><p> One point of optimism, though, is that the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500 hit several new highs this week, indicating that it still has more juice. To be sure,technical analysis shows the index could rise at least 3%&nbsp;from here—and maybe it can. Stocks could conceivably keep rising in the short-term.</p><p><blockquote>不过，乐观的一点是，标准普尔500指数本周创下了几个新高，表明它仍然有更多的动力。可以肯定的是，技术分析显示该指数可能会从这里上涨至少3%——也许确实如此。可以想象，股市在短期内可能会继续上涨。</blockquote></p><p> But investors are nervous about looming risks that could bring stocks down by year-end.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者对迫在眉睫的风险感到紧张，这些风险可能会在年底前导致股市下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/investors-turning-bearish-on-s-p-500-stocks-51625002300?mod=hp_LEAD_3_B_1\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/investors-turning-bearish-on-s-p-500-stocks-51625002300?mod=hp_LEAD_3_B_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153724402","content_text":"Many strategists haven’t expected big gains in the stock market for the rest of the year. Now investors are signaling weak confidence in stocks from here.\nStrategists do expect a weak market for the coming quarters. Their average price target on the S&P 500 index is a touch above $4,150, according to Citigroup data. That’s a roughly 3% drop from the index’s current level. Even the more-bullish strategists aren’t exactly giving a vote of confidence to the market;Jefferies recently raised its price target on the index to $4,350, which represents a mere gain of about 1%.\nBut what’s more worrisome is that investors—the people who actually buy and sell shares, and move the market—are also now pessimistic on stocks. Citi’s survey of almost 70 institutional funds shows that on average money managers see the S&P 500 price target falling to $4,269 by the end of this year. That’s a 0.6% drop from here. Just over a quarter of survey respondents said the top two risks are inflation, and a Federal Reserve policy mistake. Less than 10% of participants said the biggest risks lie elsewhere.\nThat finding is consistent with recent market behavior and commentary. If recent inflation is persistent enough, it could wipe off more than 15% from the S&P 500, as higher inflation erodes the value of future profits. If the Fed, in response, hikes interest rates too quickly, it could dent growth—and recently the stocks that are most sensitive to the perceived health of the economy have underperformed.\nOne point of optimism, though, is that the S&P 500 hit several new highs this week, indicating that it still has more juice. To be sure,technical analysis shows the index could rise at least 3% from here—and maybe it can. Stocks could conceivably keep rising in the short-term.\nBut investors are nervous about looming risks that could bring stocks down by year-end.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3403,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153569944,"gmtCreate":1625035676288,"gmtModify":1633945583540,"author":{"id":"3581982942860939","authorId":"3581982942860939","name":"SimS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581982942860939","idStr":"3581982942860939"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Back to the big boys of automobiles","listText":"Back to the big boys of automobiles","text":"Back to the big boys of automobiles","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/153569944","repostId":"2147558864","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2147558864","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1625035341,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2147558864?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-30 14:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla is under pressure from Nio, but these are the best EV investments right now, analysts say<blockquote>分析师表示，特斯拉面临蔚来的压力，但这些是目前最好的电动汽车投资</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2147558864","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Volkswagen, GM, and three other carmakers round out the list of Swiss bank UBS' favorite EV stocks.\n","content":"<p>Volkswagen, GM, and three other carmakers round out the list of Swiss bank UBS' favorite EV stocks.</p><p><blockquote>大众汽车、通用汽车和其他三家汽车制造商跻身瑞士银行瑞银最喜欢的电动汽车股票之列。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c016bc1ae9557413b5f6cc887e878cfe\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"797\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Tesla, led by CEO Elon Musk, remains the undisputed leader in electric-vehicles, but faces growing pressure on multiple fronts, UBS said.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>瑞银表示，由首席执行官Elon Musk领导的特斯拉仍然是电动汽车领域无可争议的领导者，但在多个方面面临越来越大的压力。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tesla remains the world-leader in electric-vehicles but is under increasing pressure in China, with better opportunities emerging among other automakers for investors keen to play the growing trend, UBS said on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>瑞银周二表示，特斯拉仍然是电动汽车领域的全球领导者，但在中国面临越来越大的压力，其他汽车制造商为热衷于利用这一增长趋势的投资者提供了更好的机会。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts at the Swiss bank <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">$(UBS)$</a> cut their price target on Tesla <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$(TSLA)$</a> stock by 10%, from $730 to $660, citing pressure in China, as well as delays to Tesla's self-driving product and launch of the Model Y in Europe.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士银行分析师<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">$（瑞银）$</a>下调特斯拉的目标价<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$(TSLA)$</a>股价上涨10%，从730美元上涨至660美元，原因是中国的压力，以及特斯拉自动驾驶产品和Model Y在欧洲推出的延迟。</blockquote></p><p> \"Our key concern shorter-term is that Tesla's demand momentum in China is slowing, and our checks on the ground suggest that BEVs [Battery Electric Vehicles] from domestic brands are gaining further ground vs. Tesla, which may trigger additional pricing action by Tesla and consequently lower gross margins,\" analyst Patrick Hummel said.</p><p><blockquote>“我们短期内的主要担忧是特斯拉在中国的需求势头正在放缓，我们的实地检查表明，国产品牌的纯电动汽车与特斯拉相比正在取得进一步的进展，这可能会引发特斯拉采取额外的定价行动，从而降低毛利率，”分析师Patrick Hummel表示。</blockquote></p><p> \"The EV launches from competitors with high range, charging performance and attractive value-for-money, could continue to weigh on the value the market is willing to assign to Tesla's long-term growth,\" Hummel added.</p><p><blockquote>胡梅尔补充道：“竞争对手推出的电动汽车具有高续航里程、充电性能和有吸引力的性价比，可能会继续影响市场愿意赋予特斯拉长期增长的价值。”</blockquote></p><p> In China, the pioneering electric-vehicle company led by Elon Musk faces stiff competition from domestic manufacturers like NIO <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$(NIO)$</a>, BYD , and XPeng <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$(XPEV)$</a>, which all show strong positive momentum, UBS said.</p><p><blockquote>在中国，由Elon Musk领导的电动汽车先驱公司面临着来自蔚来等国内制造商的激烈竞争<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$（蔚来）$</a>、比亚迪、小鹏汽车<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$(XPEV)$</a>瑞银表示，所有这些都显示出强劲的积极势头。</blockquote></p><p> Now that most of the major automakers have decided to go all-in on electric-vehicles, with ambitious targets for new product lines a recurring theme among the world's largest car companies, UBS identifies four factors likely to drive outperformance in auto stocks.</p><p><blockquote>既然大多数主要汽车制造商都决定全力发展电动汽车，新产品线的雄心勃勃的目标是全球最大的汽车公司中反复出现的主题，瑞银指出了四个可能推动汽车股表现优异的因素。</blockquote></p><p> They are: a strong EV sales curve, a crystallized portfolio value, excellent regional and segmental exposure, and an ability to pass on higher commodity prices.</p><p><blockquote>它们是：强劲的电动汽车销售曲线、结晶的投资组合价值、出色的区域和细分市场敞口以及转嫁大宗商品价格上涨的能力。</blockquote></p><p> Using these factors, the analysts at UBS found that Volkswagen XE:VOW (#phrase-company?ref=COMPANY%7CXE%3AVOW;onlineSignificance=prominent), the EV leader in Europe and Tesla's fiercest competitor scored best.</p><p><blockquote>利用这些因素，瑞银的分析师发现，欧洲电动汽车领导者、特斯拉最激烈的竞争对手大众XE：VOW（#phrase-company？ref=company%7CXE%3AVOW；onlineSignificance=prominent）得分最高。</blockquote></p><p> UBS raised its target price for GM stock--which it rates a buy--to $79 from $75, with the target price for Volkswagen being EUR300 ($357). GM stock is currently trading around $59, while shares in Volkswagen were trading for more than EUR216--implying that both companies could provide attractive returns to investors.</p><p><blockquote>瑞银将通用汽车股票的目标价（评级为买入）从75美元上调至79美元，大众汽车的目标价为300欧元（357美元）。通用汽车股票目前交易价格约为59美元，而大众汽车股票交易价格超过216欧元，这意味着两家公司都可以为投资者提供有吸引力的回报。</blockquote></p><p> South Korea's Hyundai is another company that could emerge as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> of the best re-rating stories as the market comes to realize the value of its assets, UBS said. France's Renault and China's Li Auto <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$(LI)$</a> rounded out the list of UBS' five most-favoured EV stocks. The bank also raised its target price on Ford <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">$(F)$</a>, which it rates neutral, to $16 from $13.</p><p><blockquote>韩国现代汽车是另一家可能成为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">一</a>瑞银表示，随着市场意识到其资产价值，这是最好的重新评级故事之一。法国雷诺和中国理想汽车<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$(LI)$</a>完成了瑞银最受青睐的五只电动汽车股票的名单。该行还上调了福特的目标价<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">$(F)$</a>评级为中性，从13美元上调至16美元。</blockquote></p><p> The team at UBS took a hard look at the industry landscape in the wake of its latest electric-vehicle consumer survey, involving more than 11,000 participants in the world's largest EV markets. The results show that \"EV mass adoption is an unstoppable trend with rapidly accelerating momentum,\" the team concluded, with 43% of consumers likely to consider buying a fully-electric car--up from 37% a year ago.</p><p><blockquote>瑞银的团队在最新的电动汽车消费者调查后仔细审视了行业格局，涉及全球最大电动汽车市场的11,000多名参与者。结果显示，“电动汽车的大规模采用是一个不可阻挡的趋势，并且势头迅速加速，”该团队总结道，43%的消费者可能会考虑购买全电动汽车，高于一年前的37%。</blockquote></p><p> For the first time, fully-electric vehicles are preferred over plug-in hybrids, with keenness for EVs accelerating fastest among American consumers, UBS said. In the wake of the survey, UBS raised its sales forecast for China to 2.5 million EVs in 2021, up from 1.9 million, with a view that EVs will make up 20% of the car market globally by 2025 and 50% by 2030.</p><p><blockquote>瑞银表示，全电动汽车首次超过插电式混合动力汽车，美国消费者对电动汽车的热情增长最快。调查结束后，瑞银将2021年中国电动汽车销量预测从190万辆上调至250万辆，预计到2025年电动汽车将占全球汽车市场的20%，到2030年将占50%。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla is still the \"undisputed leader\" in UBS' books. The recent consumer survey was \"solid across the board for Tesla,\" Hummel said, though \"momentum in the quarters ahead is likely more in favor of competitors with a busier launch pipeline.\" In conclusion: Tesla's lead is shrinking, and investors would be well advised to seek out other opportunities for high-growth plays.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉仍然是瑞银账面上“无可争议的领导者”。胡梅尔表示，最近的消费者调查“对特斯拉来说全面稳健”，尽管“未来几个季度的势头可能更有利于拥有更繁忙发布渠道的竞争对手。”总之：特斯拉的领先优势正在缩小，投资者最好寻找其他高增长股票的机会。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla is under pressure from Nio, but these are the best EV investments right now, analysts say<blockquote>分析师表示，特斯拉面临蔚来的压力，但这些是目前最好的电动汽车投资</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla is under pressure from Nio, but these are the best EV investments right now, analysts say<blockquote>分析师表示，特斯拉面临蔚来的压力，但这些是目前最好的电动汽车投资</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-30 14:42</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Volkswagen, GM, and three other carmakers round out the list of Swiss bank UBS' favorite EV stocks.</p><p><blockquote>大众汽车、通用汽车和其他三家汽车制造商跻身瑞士银行瑞银最喜欢的电动汽车股票之列。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c016bc1ae9557413b5f6cc887e878cfe\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"797\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Tesla, led by CEO Elon Musk, remains the undisputed leader in electric-vehicles, but faces growing pressure on multiple fronts, UBS said.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>瑞银表示，由首席执行官Elon Musk领导的特斯拉仍然是电动汽车领域无可争议的领导者，但在多个方面面临越来越大的压力。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tesla remains the world-leader in electric-vehicles but is under increasing pressure in China, with better opportunities emerging among other automakers for investors keen to play the growing trend, UBS said on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>瑞银周二表示，特斯拉仍然是电动汽车领域的全球领导者，但在中国面临越来越大的压力，其他汽车制造商为热衷于利用这一增长趋势的投资者提供了更好的机会。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts at the Swiss bank <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">$(UBS)$</a> cut their price target on Tesla <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$(TSLA)$</a> stock by 10%, from $730 to $660, citing pressure in China, as well as delays to Tesla's self-driving product and launch of the Model Y in Europe.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士银行分析师<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">$（瑞银）$</a>下调特斯拉的目标价<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$(TSLA)$</a>股价上涨10%，从730美元上涨至660美元，原因是中国的压力，以及特斯拉自动驾驶产品和Model Y在欧洲推出的延迟。</blockquote></p><p> \"Our key concern shorter-term is that Tesla's demand momentum in China is slowing, and our checks on the ground suggest that BEVs [Battery Electric Vehicles] from domestic brands are gaining further ground vs. Tesla, which may trigger additional pricing action by Tesla and consequently lower gross margins,\" analyst Patrick Hummel said.</p><p><blockquote>“我们短期内的主要担忧是特斯拉在中国的需求势头正在放缓，我们的实地检查表明，国产品牌的纯电动汽车与特斯拉相比正在取得进一步的进展，这可能会引发特斯拉采取额外的定价行动，从而降低毛利率，”分析师Patrick Hummel表示。</blockquote></p><p> \"The EV launches from competitors with high range, charging performance and attractive value-for-money, could continue to weigh on the value the market is willing to assign to Tesla's long-term growth,\" Hummel added.</p><p><blockquote>胡梅尔补充道：“竞争对手推出的电动汽车具有高续航里程、充电性能和有吸引力的性价比，可能会继续影响市场愿意赋予特斯拉长期增长的价值。”</blockquote></p><p> In China, the pioneering electric-vehicle company led by Elon Musk faces stiff competition from domestic manufacturers like NIO <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$(NIO)$</a>, BYD , and XPeng <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$(XPEV)$</a>, which all show strong positive momentum, UBS said.</p><p><blockquote>在中国，由Elon Musk领导的电动汽车先驱公司面临着来自蔚来等国内制造商的激烈竞争<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$（蔚来）$</a>、比亚迪、小鹏汽车<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$(XPEV)$</a>瑞银表示，所有这些都显示出强劲的积极势头。</blockquote></p><p> Now that most of the major automakers have decided to go all-in on electric-vehicles, with ambitious targets for new product lines a recurring theme among the world's largest car companies, UBS identifies four factors likely to drive outperformance in auto stocks.</p><p><blockquote>既然大多数主要汽车制造商都决定全力发展电动汽车，新产品线的雄心勃勃的目标是全球最大的汽车公司中反复出现的主题，瑞银指出了四个可能推动汽车股表现优异的因素。</blockquote></p><p> They are: a strong EV sales curve, a crystallized portfolio value, excellent regional and segmental exposure, and an ability to pass on higher commodity prices.</p><p><blockquote>它们是：强劲的电动汽车销售曲线、结晶的投资组合价值、出色的区域和细分市场敞口以及转嫁大宗商品价格上涨的能力。</blockquote></p><p> Using these factors, the analysts at UBS found that Volkswagen XE:VOW (#phrase-company?ref=COMPANY%7CXE%3AVOW;onlineSignificance=prominent), the EV leader in Europe and Tesla's fiercest competitor scored best.</p><p><blockquote>利用这些因素，瑞银的分析师发现，欧洲电动汽车领导者、特斯拉最激烈的竞争对手大众XE：VOW（#phrase-company？ref=company%7CXE%3AVOW；onlineSignificance=prominent）得分最高。</blockquote></p><p> UBS raised its target price for GM stock--which it rates a buy--to $79 from $75, with the target price for Volkswagen being EUR300 ($357). GM stock is currently trading around $59, while shares in Volkswagen were trading for more than EUR216--implying that both companies could provide attractive returns to investors.</p><p><blockquote>瑞银将通用汽车股票的目标价（评级为买入）从75美元上调至79美元，大众汽车的目标价为300欧元（357美元）。通用汽车股票目前交易价格约为59美元，而大众汽车股票交易价格超过216欧元，这意味着两家公司都可以为投资者提供有吸引力的回报。</blockquote></p><p> South Korea's Hyundai is another company that could emerge as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> of the best re-rating stories as the market comes to realize the value of its assets, UBS said. France's Renault and China's Li Auto <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$(LI)$</a> rounded out the list of UBS' five most-favoured EV stocks. The bank also raised its target price on Ford <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">$(F)$</a>, which it rates neutral, to $16 from $13.</p><p><blockquote>韩国现代汽车是另一家可能成为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">一</a>瑞银表示，随着市场意识到其资产价值，这是最好的重新评级故事之一。法国雷诺和中国理想汽车<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$(LI)$</a>完成了瑞银最受青睐的五只电动汽车股票的名单。该行还上调了福特的目标价<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">$(F)$</a>评级为中性，从13美元上调至16美元。</blockquote></p><p> The team at UBS took a hard look at the industry landscape in the wake of its latest electric-vehicle consumer survey, involving more than 11,000 participants in the world's largest EV markets. The results show that \"EV mass adoption is an unstoppable trend with rapidly accelerating momentum,\" the team concluded, with 43% of consumers likely to consider buying a fully-electric car--up from 37% a year ago.</p><p><blockquote>瑞银的团队在最新的电动汽车消费者调查后仔细审视了行业格局，涉及全球最大电动汽车市场的11,000多名参与者。结果显示，“电动汽车的大规模采用是一个不可阻挡的趋势，并且势头迅速加速，”该团队总结道，43%的消费者可能会考虑购买全电动汽车，高于一年前的37%。</blockquote></p><p> For the first time, fully-electric vehicles are preferred over plug-in hybrids, with keenness for EVs accelerating fastest among American consumers, UBS said. In the wake of the survey, UBS raised its sales forecast for China to 2.5 million EVs in 2021, up from 1.9 million, with a view that EVs will make up 20% of the car market globally by 2025 and 50% by 2030.</p><p><blockquote>瑞银表示，全电动汽车首次超过插电式混合动力汽车，美国消费者对电动汽车的热情增长最快。调查结束后，瑞银将2021年中国电动汽车销量预测从190万辆上调至250万辆，预计到2025年电动汽车将占全球汽车市场的20%，到2030年将占50%。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla is still the \"undisputed leader\" in UBS' books. The recent consumer survey was \"solid across the board for Tesla,\" Hummel said, though \"momentum in the quarters ahead is likely more in favor of competitors with a busier launch pipeline.\" In conclusion: Tesla's lead is shrinking, and investors would be well advised to seek out other opportunities for high-growth plays.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉仍然是瑞银账面上“无可争议的领导者”。胡梅尔表示，最近的消费者调查“对特斯拉来说全面稳健”，尽管“未来几个季度的势头可能更有利于拥有更繁忙发布渠道的竞争对手。”总之：特斯拉的领先优势正在缩小，投资者最好寻找其他高增长股票的机会。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-is-under-pressure-from-nio-but-these-are-the-best-electric-vehicle-investments-right-now-says-ubs-11624980469?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","002594":"比亚迪","XPEV":"小鹏集团","LI":"理想汽车","HYMLY":"Hyundai Motor Co., Ltd.","01211":"比亚迪股份","NIO":"蔚来","GM":"通用汽车","F":"福特汽车","USB":"美国合众银行"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-is-under-pressure-from-nio-but-these-are-the-best-electric-vehicle-investments-right-now-says-ubs-11624980469?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2147558864","content_text":"Volkswagen, GM, and three other carmakers round out the list of Swiss bank UBS' favorite EV stocks.\nTesla, led by CEO Elon Musk, remains the undisputed leader in electric-vehicles, but faces growing pressure on multiple fronts, UBS said.\nTesla remains the world-leader in electric-vehicles but is under increasing pressure in China, with better opportunities emerging among other automakers for investors keen to play the growing trend, UBS said on Tuesday.\nAnalysts at the Swiss bank $(UBS)$ cut their price target on Tesla $(TSLA)$ stock by 10%, from $730 to $660, citing pressure in China, as well as delays to Tesla's self-driving product and launch of the Model Y in Europe.\n\"Our key concern shorter-term is that Tesla's demand momentum in China is slowing, and our checks on the ground suggest that BEVs [Battery Electric Vehicles] from domestic brands are gaining further ground vs. Tesla, which may trigger additional pricing action by Tesla and consequently lower gross margins,\" analyst Patrick Hummel said.\n\"The EV launches from competitors with high range, charging performance and attractive value-for-money, could continue to weigh on the value the market is willing to assign to Tesla's long-term growth,\" Hummel added.\nIn China, the pioneering electric-vehicle company led by Elon Musk faces stiff competition from domestic manufacturers like NIO $(NIO)$, BYD , and XPeng $(XPEV)$, which all show strong positive momentum, UBS said.\nNow that most of the major automakers have decided to go all-in on electric-vehicles, with ambitious targets for new product lines a recurring theme among the world's largest car companies, UBS identifies four factors likely to drive outperformance in auto stocks.\nThey are: a strong EV sales curve, a crystallized portfolio value, excellent regional and segmental exposure, and an ability to pass on higher commodity prices.\nUsing these factors, the analysts at UBS found that Volkswagen XE:VOW (#phrase-company?ref=COMPANY%7CXE%3AVOW;onlineSignificance=prominent), the EV leader in Europe and Tesla's fiercest competitor scored best.\nUBS raised its target price for GM stock--which it rates a buy--to $79 from $75, with the target price for Volkswagen being EUR300 ($357). GM stock is currently trading around $59, while shares in Volkswagen were trading for more than EUR216--implying that both companies could provide attractive returns to investors.\nSouth Korea's Hyundai is another company that could emerge as one of the best re-rating stories as the market comes to realize the value of its assets, UBS said. France's Renault and China's Li Auto $(LI)$ rounded out the list of UBS' five most-favoured EV stocks. The bank also raised its target price on Ford $(F)$, which it rates neutral, to $16 from $13.\nThe team at UBS took a hard look at the industry landscape in the wake of its latest electric-vehicle consumer survey, involving more than 11,000 participants in the world's largest EV markets. The results show that \"EV mass adoption is an unstoppable trend with rapidly accelerating momentum,\" the team concluded, with 43% of consumers likely to consider buying a fully-electric car--up from 37% a year ago.\nFor the first time, fully-electric vehicles are preferred over plug-in hybrids, with keenness for EVs accelerating fastest among American consumers, UBS said. In the wake of the survey, UBS raised its sales forecast for China to 2.5 million EVs in 2021, up from 1.9 million, with a view that EVs will make up 20% of the car market globally by 2025 and 50% by 2030.\nTesla is still the \"undisputed leader\" in UBS' books. The recent consumer survey was \"solid across the board for Tesla,\" Hummel said, though \"momentum in the quarters ahead is likely more in favor of competitors with a busier launch pipeline.\" In conclusion: Tesla's lead is shrinking, and investors would be well advised to seek out other opportunities for high-growth plays.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"XPEV":0.9,"NIO":0.9,"HYMLY":0.9,"002594":0.9,"01211":0.9,"GM":0.9,"LI":0.9,"F":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"USB":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2089,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124675009,"gmtCreate":1624764834101,"gmtModify":1633948896640,"author":{"id":"3581982942860939","authorId":"3581982942860939","name":"SimS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581982942860939","idStr":"3581982942860939"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Sexy vs boring, why not both?","listText":"Sexy vs boring, why not both?","text":"Sexy vs boring, why not both?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124675009","repostId":"1137119316","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137119316","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624754401,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1137119316?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-27 08:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Ford Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137119316","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.With Ford  launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO  will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.</li>  <li>The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.</li>  <li>NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5033fa117d7852799244b8275bc1000f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"886\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我在不同的类别中比较福特和蔚来。</li><li>此次比较旨在加深对福特和蔚来增长潜力的了解，同时突出市场地位和机会的差异。</li><li>蔚来的增长速度比福特快得多，高估值可能是合理的。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.</p><p><blockquote>随着福特（F）在电动汽车市场发起重大攻势，中国电动汽车制造商蔚来（蔚来）未来将面临多一个竞争对手争夺销量。根据市场机会、规模、收入模式、增长前景和估值，哪家汽车制造商提供了最好的交易？我将在每个类别中比较福特和蔚来，并在最后做出最终裁决。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ford vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>福特vs蔚来：全球电动车市场争夺战升温</b></blockquote></p><p> Although there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing&nbsp;$30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.</p><p><blockquote>尽管福特和蔚来之间存在天壤之别，但两家公司将在快速增长的全球电动汽车市场上展开正面交锋。福特的车队尚未专注于电动汽车，但这种情况将会改变：感觉到电动汽车竞赛正在升温，福特表示正在加速其电气化计划，到2025年投资300B美元用于其电动汽车制造能力。福特之前的资本计划要求对零排放汽车投资220亿美元。福特还设定了一个雄心勃勃的销售目标：未来十年内其全球销量的40%将是电动汽车，皮卡销量的33%将是电动汽车。如今，电动汽车销量仅占福特销量的1%。随着福特逐步淘汰内燃机，它将在2040年发展成为一家全电动汽车制造商。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market opportunity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p> In 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，全球电动汽车销量为320万辆，市场份额仅为4.2%。然而，2020年，中国购买了全球41%的电动汽车。中国买家去年购买了130万辆电动汽车，随着北京寻求提高电动汽车的采用率，销量将快速增长。电动汽车的第二大市场是欧洲，占全球电动汽车销量的42%。美国只是世界上插电式电动汽车的第三大市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b48c23b32134542f51227d9b1b612887\" tg-width=\"1083\" tg-height=\"863\"><span>(Source: Wikipedia)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：维基百科）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> China, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is&nbsp;on the cusp of entering the European market&nbsp;in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，中国是世界上增长最快的电动汽车市场，尽管欧洲正在迅速赶上，部分原因是立法努力增加零排放乘用车的采用，以及对全欧洲充电站网络的大量投资。蔚来即将进入欧洲市场，以期在竞争准备就绪之前扩大在全球第二大电动汽车市场的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> Beijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a&nbsp;twenty percent share&nbsp;of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.</p><p><blockquote>北京是蔚来汽车行业电气化背后的驱动力：政府希望到2025年电动汽车在新车销售中的份额达到20%，这将推动电动汽车在国内市场的渗透率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9871e44eaf69adb27151425887870ace\" tg-width=\"739\" tg-height=\"454\"><span>(Source:Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Turning to growth projections.</p><p><blockquote>转向增长预测。</blockquote></p><p> With more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.</p><p><blockquote>随着中国和欧洲等地政府对电动汽车制造商采取更有利的政策，这些市场有望出现全球最快的销售增长和最高的电动汽车采用率。由于人口规模，中国不仅是最大的市场，而且预计到2030年，中国的电动汽车销量将超过世界上所有其他市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61d19dff2f34e2d8828aca854e85d84a\" tg-width=\"825\" tg-height=\"565\"><span>(Source:McKinsey)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：麦肯锡）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>由于中国拥有更大的总市场规模、更高的电动汽车采用率、更强劲的预期销售增长以及更有利的监管框架，因此中国的赢家将是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Scale and manufacturing competence</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模和制造能力</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.</p><p><blockquote>福特拥有一个世纪的制造经验。但到目前为止，福特的产品线中只有一款全电动汽车可以与蔚来相媲美：野马Mach-E SUV。2022年，福特将开始销售全电动F-150 Lightening，该车建立在福特最畅销皮卡车的成功基础上。蔚来已经拥有更强大的产品目录，包括5座ES6 SUV、5座轿跑SUV EC6以及6座和7座全尺寸SUV ES8。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Since NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.</p><p><blockquote>由于蔚来仅专注于生产电动汽车，并且占据了非常小且明确的利基市场，因此这家中国公司在电动汽车制造专业知识方面具有优势。问题是这种优势能持续多久。福特在制造汽车方面拥有丰富的经验，可以利用全球制造基地以比任何利基电动汽车制造商所希望的更快的速度提高电动汽车产量。这使得福特不仅在美国成为特斯拉(TSLA)的有力竞争对手，而且在国外也成为蔚来的有力竞争对手。福特正在加速其电气化计划，它有资源和雄心在未来十年内成为电动汽车的领导者。福特提议在其车队电气化上投入300B美元，这将加速其转型，并使福特成为其他电动汽车制造商的长期威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Winner here: Ford.</p><p><blockquote>赢家：福特。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Differentiation and BaaS revenue model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>差异化和BaaS收入模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来都知道差异化在一个竞争只会随着时间的推移而变得更加激烈的市场中的重要性，这就是为什么两家公司都在一个可以打破或巩固电动汽车市场主导地位的相关领域：电池技术。</blockquote></p><p> Ford is&nbsp;forming a joint venture&nbsp;with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has&nbsp;formed its own joint venture&nbsp;to secure battery supply.</p><p><blockquote>福特正在与韩国电池技术公司SK Innovation组建一家合资企业，以确保牵引电池单元和阵列模块的供应。该合资企业旨在加速电池交付，每年将生产约60 GWh，足以满足福特到2030年预计年度能源需求的25%。蔚来也在投资电池技术，并成立了自己的合资企业来确保电池供应。</blockquote></p><p> The difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.</p><p><blockquote>与福特的不同之处在于，蔚来的电池投资策略围绕电池订阅模式，也称为“电池即服务”，这为这家中国汽车制造商创造了强大的长期收入机会。在这种“BaaS”模式下，购买蔚来电动汽车的用户可以获得7万元人民币的初始折扣，相当于1.08万美元，并且可以签约包月租用可充电的70 kWh电池。然后可以在蔚来的一个电池交换站更换电池，该站遍布中国大多数大城市。电池订阅费用为每月980元人民币，相当于150美元。</blockquote></p><p> The BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.</p><p><blockquote>BaaS模式对汽车制造商和用户都有几个好处：由于预付折扣，从蔚来购买电动汽车变得更加实惠，订阅模式确保用户受益于电池技术的进步和更好的性能随着时间的推移。将电池成本与汽车价格脱钩为蔚来创造了一个全新的订阅收入来源。“BaaS”订阅的收入可用于增加蔚来充电/更换站网络的密度。电池订阅模式还将客户与蔚来绑定在一起，有可能增加客户的终身价值。</blockquote></p><p> Ford and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来准备从电动汽车电池成本下降中受益，因为它们增加了资本配置。随着越来越多的投资流入开发更高效的电池，性能将会提高，成本将会下降，这将推动电动汽车的采用并使所有电动汽车制造商受益。这是因为较低的电池价格使电动汽车与内燃机乘用车相比更具竞争力。但由于蔚来明确围绕电池订阅构建其商业模式的一部分，蔚来可能比福特受益更多。</blockquote></p><p> Battery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.</p><p><blockquote>根据投资公司施罗德(Schroders)提供的信息，自2014年以来，电动汽车的电池成本已下降70%，并且在本十年还将进一步下降。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c42acb75905affe7570a2f399ea3192f\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"449\"><span>(Source: Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>“BaaS”模式非常天才，从长远来看，它可能会发展成为蔚来每年5亿美元的收入机会。尽管福特正在加大对电池技术的投资，但这一类别的赢家是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sales growth and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>销售增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.</p><p><blockquote>福特5月份销量同比增长4.1%，但电动汽车销量（包括混合动力汽车）同比飙升184%，福特5月份售出创纪录的10,364辆电动汽车/混合动力汽车。Escape electrified销量和Explorer Hybrid销量同比增长125%和132%，显示出强劲的客户接受度。蔚来上个月交付了6,711辆汽车，其中包括3,017辆ES6、1,412辆ES8和2,282辆EC6。5月份总交付量同比增长率为95.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Ford's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.</p><p><blockquote>福特的销售额是蔚来的54倍，这为蔚来创造了更多的销售增长和价值重估潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df5a0a393e44ed74241c5effcdd92350\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来的估值差异就像白天和黑夜的区别。这是因为尽管电动汽车类别出现爆炸性增长，但福特仍被视为一家成熟的汽车制造商，预计企业销量将实现中低位数增长。预计到2025财年（基准年：2020财年），福特的收入将增长33%，蔚来的收入将增长808%！</blockquote></p><p> Due to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>由于这些销量增长的差异，蔚来与福特完全相反，至少就估值而言。这家中国电动汽车制造商预计今年的销量和交付量将增长接近100%，由于蔚来只经营电动汽车，蔚来的市值与销售额比率远高于福特。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/817605c6b1e82c03d0473ea570d32b8f\" tg-width=\"506\" tg-height=\"406\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO has larger risks...</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来风险更大……</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来是风险更大的企业，但也是最有希望的企业。政府政策有利于蔚来等电动汽车制造商。蔚来的全球总销量增长潜力更大，因为与福特相比，它的收入基础较小。但也有一些事情对蔚来不利。例如，对于蔚来来说，由于生产缺陷而导致的召回将是一个比福特更大的挑战，福特可以依赖全球服务和分销网络。蔚来的估值也并非没有风险，因为生产受挫导致销售增长意外放缓将对财务状况造成更大的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final verdict</b></p><p><blockquote><b>终审判决</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来绝对是更“性感”的汽车制造商。中欧的强劲采用和销售增长支持了蔚来。其超级智能BaaS模型将车辆购买价格与电池成本脱钩，这是天才之举。你为这种增长付出了高昂的代价，但蔚来的市场机会是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> Ford’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.</p><p><blockquote>福特的电动汽车销量正在蓬勃发展，随着汽车制造商对其车队进行电气化，电动汽车销量的比例将会增加。福特在电动汽车市场潜力巨大，但由于电动汽车销量占总销量的比例仍然相对较低，福特需要很长时间才能完成转型。</blockquote></p><p> If you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.</p><p><blockquote>如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力，请购买蔚来。如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力并且不喜欢太多风险，请购买福特。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ford Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFord Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-27 08:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.</li>  <li>The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.</li>  <li>NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5033fa117d7852799244b8275bc1000f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"886\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我在不同的类别中比较福特和蔚来。</li><li>此次比较旨在加深对福特和蔚来增长潜力的了解，同时突出市场地位和机会的差异。</li><li>蔚来的增长速度比福特快得多，高估值可能是合理的。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.</p><p><blockquote>随着福特（F）在电动汽车市场发起重大攻势，中国电动汽车制造商蔚来（蔚来）未来将面临多一个竞争对手争夺销量。根据市场机会、规模、收入模式、增长前景和估值，哪家汽车制造商提供了最好的交易？我将在每个类别中比较福特和蔚来，并在最后做出最终裁决。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ford vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>福特vs蔚来：全球电动车市场争夺战升温</b></blockquote></p><p> Although there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing&nbsp;$30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.</p><p><blockquote>尽管福特和蔚来之间存在天壤之别，但两家公司将在快速增长的全球电动汽车市场上展开正面交锋。福特的车队尚未专注于电动汽车，但这种情况将会改变：感觉到电动汽车竞赛正在升温，福特表示正在加速其电气化计划，到2025年投资300B美元用于其电动汽车制造能力。福特之前的资本计划要求对零排放汽车投资220亿美元。福特还设定了一个雄心勃勃的销售目标：未来十年内其全球销量的40%将是电动汽车，皮卡销量的33%将是电动汽车。如今，电动汽车销量仅占福特销量的1%。随着福特逐步淘汰内燃机，它将在2040年发展成为一家全电动汽车制造商。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market opportunity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p> In 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，全球电动汽车销量为320万辆，市场份额仅为4.2%。然而，2020年，中国购买了全球41%的电动汽车。中国买家去年购买了130万辆电动汽车，随着北京寻求提高电动汽车的采用率，销量将快速增长。电动汽车的第二大市场是欧洲，占全球电动汽车销量的42%。美国只是世界上插电式电动汽车的第三大市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b48c23b32134542f51227d9b1b612887\" tg-width=\"1083\" tg-height=\"863\"><span>(Source: Wikipedia)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：维基百科）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> China, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is&nbsp;on the cusp of entering the European market&nbsp;in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，中国是世界上增长最快的电动汽车市场，尽管欧洲正在迅速赶上，部分原因是立法努力增加零排放乘用车的采用，以及对全欧洲充电站网络的大量投资。蔚来即将进入欧洲市场，以期在竞争准备就绪之前扩大在全球第二大电动汽车市场的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> Beijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a&nbsp;twenty percent share&nbsp;of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.</p><p><blockquote>北京是蔚来汽车行业电气化背后的驱动力：政府希望到2025年电动汽车在新车销售中的份额达到20%，这将推动电动汽车在国内市场的渗透率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9871e44eaf69adb27151425887870ace\" tg-width=\"739\" tg-height=\"454\"><span>(Source:Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Turning to growth projections.</p><p><blockquote>转向增长预测。</blockquote></p><p> With more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.</p><p><blockquote>随着中国和欧洲等地政府对电动汽车制造商采取更有利的政策，这些市场有望出现全球最快的销售增长和最高的电动汽车采用率。由于人口规模，中国不仅是最大的市场，而且预计到2030年，中国的电动汽车销量将超过世界上所有其他市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61d19dff2f34e2d8828aca854e85d84a\" tg-width=\"825\" tg-height=\"565\"><span>(Source:McKinsey)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：麦肯锡）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>由于中国拥有更大的总市场规模、更高的电动汽车采用率、更强劲的预期销售增长以及更有利的监管框架，因此中国的赢家将是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Scale and manufacturing competence</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模和制造能力</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.</p><p><blockquote>福特拥有一个世纪的制造经验。但到目前为止，福特的产品线中只有一款全电动汽车可以与蔚来相媲美：野马Mach-E SUV。2022年，福特将开始销售全电动F-150 Lightening，该车建立在福特最畅销皮卡车的成功基础上。蔚来已经拥有更强大的产品目录，包括5座ES6 SUV、5座轿跑SUV EC6以及6座和7座全尺寸SUV ES8。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Since NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.</p><p><blockquote>由于蔚来仅专注于生产电动汽车，并且占据了非常小且明确的利基市场，因此这家中国公司在电动汽车制造专业知识方面具有优势。问题是这种优势能持续多久。福特在制造汽车方面拥有丰富的经验，可以利用全球制造基地以比任何利基电动汽车制造商所希望的更快的速度提高电动汽车产量。这使得福特不仅在美国成为特斯拉(TSLA)的有力竞争对手，而且在国外也成为蔚来的有力竞争对手。福特正在加速其电气化计划，它有资源和雄心在未来十年内成为电动汽车的领导者。福特提议在其车队电气化上投入300B美元，这将加速其转型，并使福特成为其他电动汽车制造商的长期威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Winner here: Ford.</p><p><blockquote>赢家：福特。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Differentiation and BaaS revenue model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>差异化和BaaS收入模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来都知道差异化在一个竞争只会随着时间的推移而变得更加激烈的市场中的重要性，这就是为什么两家公司都在一个可以打破或巩固电动汽车市场主导地位的相关领域：电池技术。</blockquote></p><p> Ford is&nbsp;forming a joint venture&nbsp;with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has&nbsp;formed its own joint venture&nbsp;to secure battery supply.</p><p><blockquote>福特正在与韩国电池技术公司SK Innovation组建一家合资企业，以确保牵引电池单元和阵列模块的供应。该合资企业旨在加速电池交付，每年将生产约60 GWh，足以满足福特到2030年预计年度能源需求的25%。蔚来也在投资电池技术，并成立了自己的合资企业来确保电池供应。</blockquote></p><p> The difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.</p><p><blockquote>与福特的不同之处在于，蔚来的电池投资策略围绕电池订阅模式，也称为“电池即服务”，这为这家中国汽车制造商创造了强大的长期收入机会。在这种“BaaS”模式下，购买蔚来电动汽车的用户可以获得7万元人民币的初始折扣，相当于1.08万美元，并且可以签约包月租用可充电的70 kWh电池。然后可以在蔚来的一个电池交换站更换电池，该站遍布中国大多数大城市。电池订阅费用为每月980元人民币，相当于150美元。</blockquote></p><p> The BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.</p><p><blockquote>BaaS模式对汽车制造商和用户都有几个好处：由于预付折扣，从蔚来购买电动汽车变得更加实惠，订阅模式确保用户受益于电池技术的进步和更好的性能随着时间的推移。将电池成本与汽车价格脱钩为蔚来创造了一个全新的订阅收入来源。“BaaS”订阅的收入可用于增加蔚来充电/更换站网络的密度。电池订阅模式还将客户与蔚来绑定在一起，有可能增加客户的终身价值。</blockquote></p><p> Ford and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来准备从电动汽车电池成本下降中受益，因为它们增加了资本配置。随着越来越多的投资流入开发更高效的电池，性能将会提高，成本将会下降，这将推动电动汽车的采用并使所有电动汽车制造商受益。这是因为较低的电池价格使电动汽车与内燃机乘用车相比更具竞争力。但由于蔚来明确围绕电池订阅构建其商业模式的一部分，蔚来可能比福特受益更多。</blockquote></p><p> Battery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.</p><p><blockquote>根据投资公司施罗德(Schroders)提供的信息，自2014年以来，电动汽车的电池成本已下降70%，并且在本十年还将进一步下降。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c42acb75905affe7570a2f399ea3192f\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"449\"><span>(Source: Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>“BaaS”模式非常天才，从长远来看，它可能会发展成为蔚来每年5亿美元的收入机会。尽管福特正在加大对电池技术的投资，但这一类别的赢家是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sales growth and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>销售增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.</p><p><blockquote>福特5月份销量同比增长4.1%，但电动汽车销量（包括混合动力汽车）同比飙升184%，福特5月份售出创纪录的10,364辆电动汽车/混合动力汽车。Escape electrified销量和Explorer Hybrid销量同比增长125%和132%，显示出强劲的客户接受度。蔚来上个月交付了6,711辆汽车，其中包括3,017辆ES6、1,412辆ES8和2,282辆EC6。5月份总交付量同比增长率为95.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Ford's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.</p><p><blockquote>福特的销售额是蔚来的54倍，这为蔚来创造了更多的销售增长和价值重估潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df5a0a393e44ed74241c5effcdd92350\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来的估值差异就像白天和黑夜的区别。这是因为尽管电动汽车类别出现爆炸性增长，但福特仍被视为一家成熟的汽车制造商，预计企业销量将实现中低位数增长。预计到2025财年（基准年：2020财年），福特的收入将增长33%，蔚来的收入将增长808%！</blockquote></p><p> Due to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>由于这些销量增长的差异，蔚来与福特完全相反，至少就估值而言。这家中国电动汽车制造商预计今年的销量和交付量将增长接近100%，由于蔚来只经营电动汽车，蔚来的市值与销售额比率远高于福特。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/817605c6b1e82c03d0473ea570d32b8f\" tg-width=\"506\" tg-height=\"406\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO has larger risks...</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来风险更大……</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来是风险更大的企业，但也是最有希望的企业。政府政策有利于蔚来等电动汽车制造商。蔚来的全球总销量增长潜力更大，因为与福特相比，它的收入基础较小。但也有一些事情对蔚来不利。例如，对于蔚来来说，由于生产缺陷而导致的召回将是一个比福特更大的挑战，福特可以依赖全球服务和分销网络。蔚来的估值也并非没有风险，因为生产受挫导致销售增长意外放缓将对财务状况造成更大的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final verdict</b></p><p><blockquote><b>终审判决</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来绝对是更“性感”的汽车制造商。中欧的强劲采用和销售增长支持了蔚来。其超级智能BaaS模型将车辆购买价格与电池成本脱钩，这是天才之举。你为这种增长付出了高昂的代价，但蔚来的市场机会是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> Ford’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.</p><p><blockquote>福特的电动汽车销量正在蓬勃发展，随着汽车制造商对其车队进行电气化，电动汽车销量的比例将会增加。福特在电动汽车市场潜力巨大，但由于电动汽车销量占总销量的比例仍然相对较低，福特需要很长时间才能完成转型。</blockquote></p><p> If you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.</p><p><blockquote>如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力，请购买蔚来。如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力并且不喜欢太多风险，请购买福特。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436600-ford-or-nio-the-final-verdict\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","F":"福特汽车"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436600-ford-or-nio-the-final-verdict","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137119316","content_text":"Summary\n\nI am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.\nThe comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.\nNIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.\n\npeterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images\nWith Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.\nFord vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up\nAlthough there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing $30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.\nMarket opportunity\nIn 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.\n(Source: Wikipedia)\nChina, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is on the cusp of entering the European market in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.\nBeijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a twenty percent share of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.\n(Source:Schroders)\nTurning to growth projections.\nWith more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.\n(Source:McKinsey)\nSince China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.\nScale and manufacturing competence\nFord has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.\nSince NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.\nWinner here: Ford.\nDifferentiation and BaaS revenue model\nBoth Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.\nFord is forming a joint venture with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has formed its own joint venture to secure battery supply.\nThe difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.\nThe BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.\nFord and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.\nBattery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.\n(Source: Schroders)\nThe “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.\nSales growth and valuation\nFord’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.\nFord's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.\nData by YCharts\nThe difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!\nDue to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.\n(Source: Author)\nNIO has larger risks...\nNIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.\nFinal verdict\nNIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.\nFord’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.\nIf you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9,"F":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3283,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125711491,"gmtCreate":1624693080013,"gmtModify":1633949491523,"author":{"id":"3581982942860939","authorId":"3581982942860939","name":"SimS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581982942860939","idStr":"3581982942860939"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"“Musk tweeting, again” [LOL]&nbsp;","listText":"“Musk tweeting, again” [LOL]&nbsp;","text":"“Musk tweeting, again” [LOL]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/125711491","repostId":"1100072036","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2192,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128382423,"gmtCreate":1624501995962,"gmtModify":1634005177788,"author":{"id":"3581982942860939","authorId":"3581982942860939","name":"SimS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581982942860939","idStr":"3581982942860939"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"How many Tesla cars in Tibet?","listText":"How many Tesla cars in Tibet?","text":"How many Tesla cars in Tibet?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128382423","repostId":"2145156570","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2402,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121089449,"gmtCreate":1624444251381,"gmtModify":1634006083274,"author":{"id":"3581982942860939","authorId":"3581982942860939","name":"SimS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581982942860939","idStr":"3581982942860939"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"In the long running","listText":"In the long running","text":"In the long running","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121089449","repostId":"1145825451","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3331,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169137518,"gmtCreate":1623821023734,"gmtModify":1634027562840,"author":{"id":"3581982942860939","authorId":"3581982942860939","name":"SimS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581982942860939","idStr":"3581982942860939"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like what Buffett said, “be fearful when others are greedy”","listText":"Like what Buffett said, “be fearful when others are greedy”","text":"Like what Buffett said, “be fearful when others are greedy”","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169137518","repostId":"1182315358","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":998,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169044466,"gmtCreate":1623810475455,"gmtModify":1634027757572,"author":{"id":"3581982942860939","authorId":"3581982942860939","name":"SimS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581982942860939","idStr":"3581982942860939"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"AAPL is way&nbsp;ahead of its competition","listText":"AAPL is way&nbsp;ahead of its competition","text":"AAPL is way ahead of its competition","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169044466","repostId":"1109582645","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109582645","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623808952,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1109582645?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-16 10:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Goldman Sachs Changed Its Mind On Apple Stock<blockquote>高盛为何改变对苹果股票的看法</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109582645","media":"TheStreet","summary":"After being on the spotlight for latching on to his pessimism over Apple stock, even following stron","content":"<p>After being on the spotlight for latching on to his pessimism over Apple stock, even&nbsp;following strong quarterly results, famed bear Rod Hall at Goldman Sachs threw in the towel and&nbsp;changed his position on AAPLfrom sell to neutral. Last week, he gave an interview to CNBC and further elaborated on his decision.</p><p><blockquote>即使在季度业绩强劲之后，高盛著名的空头罗德·霍尔(Rod Hall)仍因对苹果股票持悲观态度而成为人们关注的焦点，但他还是认输了，将他对AAPL的仓位从卖出改为中性。上周，他接受了CNBC的采访，进一步阐述了自己的决定。</blockquote></p><p> The Apple Maven takes a closer look at this bear’s journey from highly skeptical to timidly optimistic about Apple shares.</p><p><blockquote>这位苹果专家仔细研究了这只空头对苹果股票从高度怀疑到谨慎乐观的历程。</blockquote></p><p> <b>iPhone at the center of the bear case</b></p><p><blockquote><b>熊壳中央的iPhone</b></blockquote></p><p> At the core of Goldman Sachs’ sell rating on Apple stock was the Cupertino company's challenges at meeting iPhone sales growth metrics going forward. Rod Hall explained it:</p><p><blockquote>高盛对苹果股票的卖出评级的核心是这家库比蒂诺公司在满足未来iPhone销售增长指标方面面临的挑战。罗德·霍尔解释道：</blockquote></p><p>   “Apple continues to show strong execution, but we see fundamentals more likely to disappoint in 2021 as the long-anticipated 5G iPhone fails to meet optimistic consensus expectations and services revenue growth slows.”  To be fair, Apple’s most recent financial results had been far from exhilarating ahead of Goldman’s stock rating upgrade. The Cupertino company's main revenue generator, the iPhone, had produced timid results in 2020, making some wonder if smartphone sales would disappoint&nbsp;at the start of the 5G cycle.</p><p><blockquote>“苹果继续表现出强大的执行力，但我们认为2021年的基本面更有可能令人失望，因为人们期待已久的5G iPhone未能达到乐观的共识预期，服务收入增长放缓。”公平地说，在高盛股票评级上调之前，苹果最近的财务业绩远非令人振奋。这家库比蒂诺公司的主要收入来源iPhone在2020年的业绩不佳，这让一些人怀疑智能手机销量是否会在5G周期开始时令人失望。</blockquote></p><p> The plateauing in smartphone sales preceded the pandemic year. Based on data from third party-research companies Gartner and Strategy Analytics, 187 million iPhones were sold in 2019, fewer than the 217 million of 2018. And from 2019 to 2020, there was an unprecedented decrease in iPhone revenues: from $142 billion to $138 billion last year.</p><p><blockquote>智能手机销量在疫情年之前就趋于平稳。根据第三方研究公司Gartner和Strategy Analytics的数据，2019年iPhone销量为1.87亿部，低于2018年的2.17亿部。从2019年到2020年，iPhone的收入出现了前所未有的下降：从1420亿美元下降到去年的1380亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, and based on recent trends, Rod Hall’s bearishness towards the iPhone seemed reasonably justifiable. What had been missing to tip Apple stock over, in the analyst’s view, was a negative catalyst. He believed that the COVID-19 pandemic could be it.</p><p><blockquote>因此，根据最近的趋势，罗德·霍尔对iPhone的看跌似乎是有道理的。分析师认为，推动苹果股价上涨的因素是负面催化剂。他相信新冠肺炎·疫情可能就是它。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89631d8083d43e0daee7828d45e7a67a\" tg-width=\"627\" tg-height=\"453\"><span>Figure 1: iPhone quarterly revenue ($bn).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：iPhone季度收入（十亿美元）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>When Goldman Sachs fell off the horse</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当高盛落马</b></blockquote></p><p> Goldman’s rating change on AAPL came in April, after&nbsp;the Cupertino company crushed expectations&nbsp;and released a blowout earnings report. Fiscal second quarter 2021 marked a turning point in iPhone 12 sales, after Apple faced delays&nbsp;in the launch of the new device.</p><p><blockquote>今年4月，在这家库比蒂诺公司超出预期并发布井喷式收益报告后，高盛对苹果公司的评级发生了变化。2021财年第二季度标志着iPhone 12销售的转折点，此前苹果面临新设备发布的延迟。</blockquote></p><p> Apple reported iPhone revenues of $47.9 billion versus Wall Street’s consensus $41.5 billion. Year-over-year, the top-line increase was a staggering $19 billion, representing growth of 65%.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公布的iPhone营收为479亿美元，而华尔街普遍预期为415亿美元。与去年同期相比，营收增长了惊人的190亿美元，增长了65%。</blockquote></p><p> These numbers probably caught Goldman’s Rod Hall flat-footed.</p><p><blockquote>这些数字可能让高盛的罗德·霍尔措手不及。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How Goldman Sachs sees Apple going forward</b></p><p><blockquote><b>高盛如何看待苹果的未来</b></blockquote></p><p> According to Goldman, the neutral position on AAPL is justified by one key metric: revenues per user. The analyst believes that growth in this metric should be in line with U.S. GDP. He points out that Apple's revenues per user have remained static in recent years, only rising during the pandemic due to stay-at-home trends.</p><p><blockquote>高盛表示，一个关键指标证明了对AAPL的中立立场是合理的：每用户收入。该分析师认为，该指标的增长应与美国GDP保持一致。他指出，苹果的每用户收入近年来保持不变，只是在疫情期间由于居家趋势而有所上升。</blockquote></p><p> On the bullish side of the argument, Rod Hall sees the importance of privacy, and thinks that Apple could benefit from increased demand for being an advocate of user data protection. On the bearish side, the analyst remains skeptical that the services segment will grow as much as expected, and that only about 20% to 25% of active users will pay for Apple services.</p><p><blockquote>从乐观的角度来看，罗德·霍尔看到了隐私的重要性，并认为苹果可以从成为用户数据保护倡导者的需求增加中受益。悲观的一面是，分析师仍然怀疑服务领域是否会像预期的那样增长，并且只有约20%至25%的活跃用户会为苹果服务付费。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Apple Maven's take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果专家的看法</b></blockquote></p><p> Rod Hall has not been the first and will not be the last on Wall Street to be proven wrong on a stock rating. Goldman Sachs' position was contrarian, and bold for the same reason. Yet, the Apple Maven believes that Rod Hall’s cautious stance could still be a bit too conservative.</p><p><blockquote>罗德·霍尔不是华尔街第一个也不会是最后一个被证明股票评级错误的人。高盛的立场是逆向的，出于同样的原因也很大胆。然而，这位苹果专家认为，罗德·霍尔的谨慎立场可能仍然有点过于保守。</blockquote></p><p> While stay-at-home trends may have distorted fiscal 2020 and early 2021 results, the 5G cycle, the M1 architecture, the expansion of the services portfolio and resilient consumer spending in general may still help to boost Apple's revenue-per-user metric – Goldman’s key concern.</p><p><blockquote>虽然居家趋势可能扭曲了2020财年和2021年初的业绩，但5G周期、M1架构、服务组合的扩张和总体上有弹性的消费者支出可能仍有助于提高苹果的每用户收入指标——高盛的主要关注点。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Goldman Sachs Changed Its Mind On Apple Stock<blockquote>高盛为何改变对苹果股票的看法</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Goldman Sachs Changed Its Mind On Apple Stock<blockquote>高盛为何改变对苹果股票的看法</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-16 10:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>After being on the spotlight for latching on to his pessimism over Apple stock, even&nbsp;following strong quarterly results, famed bear Rod Hall at Goldman Sachs threw in the towel and&nbsp;changed his position on AAPLfrom sell to neutral. Last week, he gave an interview to CNBC and further elaborated on his decision.</p><p><blockquote>即使在季度业绩强劲之后，高盛著名的空头罗德·霍尔(Rod Hall)仍因对苹果股票持悲观态度而成为人们关注的焦点，但他还是认输了，将他对AAPL的仓位从卖出改为中性。上周，他接受了CNBC的采访，进一步阐述了自己的决定。</blockquote></p><p> The Apple Maven takes a closer look at this bear’s journey from highly skeptical to timidly optimistic about Apple shares.</p><p><blockquote>这位苹果专家仔细研究了这只空头对苹果股票从高度怀疑到谨慎乐观的历程。</blockquote></p><p> <b>iPhone at the center of the bear case</b></p><p><blockquote><b>熊壳中央的iPhone</b></blockquote></p><p> At the core of Goldman Sachs’ sell rating on Apple stock was the Cupertino company's challenges at meeting iPhone sales growth metrics going forward. Rod Hall explained it:</p><p><blockquote>高盛对苹果股票的卖出评级的核心是这家库比蒂诺公司在满足未来iPhone销售增长指标方面面临的挑战。罗德·霍尔解释道：</blockquote></p><p>   “Apple continues to show strong execution, but we see fundamentals more likely to disappoint in 2021 as the long-anticipated 5G iPhone fails to meet optimistic consensus expectations and services revenue growth slows.”  To be fair, Apple’s most recent financial results had been far from exhilarating ahead of Goldman’s stock rating upgrade. The Cupertino company's main revenue generator, the iPhone, had produced timid results in 2020, making some wonder if smartphone sales would disappoint&nbsp;at the start of the 5G cycle.</p><p><blockquote>“苹果继续表现出强大的执行力，但我们认为2021年的基本面更有可能令人失望，因为人们期待已久的5G iPhone未能达到乐观的共识预期，服务收入增长放缓。”公平地说，在高盛股票评级上调之前，苹果最近的财务业绩远非令人振奋。这家库比蒂诺公司的主要收入来源iPhone在2020年的业绩不佳，这让一些人怀疑智能手机销量是否会在5G周期开始时令人失望。</blockquote></p><p> The plateauing in smartphone sales preceded the pandemic year. Based on data from third party-research companies Gartner and Strategy Analytics, 187 million iPhones were sold in 2019, fewer than the 217 million of 2018. And from 2019 to 2020, there was an unprecedented decrease in iPhone revenues: from $142 billion to $138 billion last year.</p><p><blockquote>智能手机销量在疫情年之前就趋于平稳。根据第三方研究公司Gartner和Strategy Analytics的数据，2019年iPhone销量为1.87亿部，低于2018年的2.17亿部。从2019年到2020年，iPhone的收入出现了前所未有的下降：从1420亿美元下降到去年的1380亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, and based on recent trends, Rod Hall’s bearishness towards the iPhone seemed reasonably justifiable. What had been missing to tip Apple stock over, in the analyst’s view, was a negative catalyst. He believed that the COVID-19 pandemic could be it.</p><p><blockquote>因此，根据最近的趋势，罗德·霍尔对iPhone的看跌似乎是有道理的。分析师认为，推动苹果股价上涨的因素是负面催化剂。他相信新冠肺炎·疫情可能就是它。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89631d8083d43e0daee7828d45e7a67a\" tg-width=\"627\" tg-height=\"453\"><span>Figure 1: iPhone quarterly revenue ($bn).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：iPhone季度收入（十亿美元）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>When Goldman Sachs fell off the horse</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当高盛落马</b></blockquote></p><p> Goldman’s rating change on AAPL came in April, after&nbsp;the Cupertino company crushed expectations&nbsp;and released a blowout earnings report. Fiscal second quarter 2021 marked a turning point in iPhone 12 sales, after Apple faced delays&nbsp;in the launch of the new device.</p><p><blockquote>今年4月，在这家库比蒂诺公司超出预期并发布井喷式收益报告后，高盛对苹果公司的评级发生了变化。2021财年第二季度标志着iPhone 12销售的转折点，此前苹果面临新设备发布的延迟。</blockquote></p><p> Apple reported iPhone revenues of $47.9 billion versus Wall Street’s consensus $41.5 billion. Year-over-year, the top-line increase was a staggering $19 billion, representing growth of 65%.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公布的iPhone营收为479亿美元，而华尔街普遍预期为415亿美元。与去年同期相比，营收增长了惊人的190亿美元，增长了65%。</blockquote></p><p> These numbers probably caught Goldman’s Rod Hall flat-footed.</p><p><blockquote>这些数字可能让高盛的罗德·霍尔措手不及。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How Goldman Sachs sees Apple going forward</b></p><p><blockquote><b>高盛如何看待苹果的未来</b></blockquote></p><p> According to Goldman, the neutral position on AAPL is justified by one key metric: revenues per user. The analyst believes that growth in this metric should be in line with U.S. GDP. He points out that Apple's revenues per user have remained static in recent years, only rising during the pandemic due to stay-at-home trends.</p><p><blockquote>高盛表示，一个关键指标证明了对AAPL的中立立场是合理的：每用户收入。该分析师认为，该指标的增长应与美国GDP保持一致。他指出，苹果的每用户收入近年来保持不变，只是在疫情期间由于居家趋势而有所上升。</blockquote></p><p> On the bullish side of the argument, Rod Hall sees the importance of privacy, and thinks that Apple could benefit from increased demand for being an advocate of user data protection. On the bearish side, the analyst remains skeptical that the services segment will grow as much as expected, and that only about 20% to 25% of active users will pay for Apple services.</p><p><blockquote>从乐观的角度来看，罗德·霍尔看到了隐私的重要性，并认为苹果可以从成为用户数据保护倡导者的需求增加中受益。悲观的一面是，分析师仍然怀疑服务领域是否会像预期的那样增长，并且只有约20%至25%的活跃用户会为苹果服务付费。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Apple Maven's take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果专家的看法</b></blockquote></p><p> Rod Hall has not been the first and will not be the last on Wall Street to be proven wrong on a stock rating. Goldman Sachs' position was contrarian, and bold for the same reason. Yet, the Apple Maven believes that Rod Hall’s cautious stance could still be a bit too conservative.</p><p><blockquote>罗德·霍尔不是华尔街第一个也不会是最后一个被证明股票评级错误的人。高盛的立场是逆向的，出于同样的原因也很大胆。然而，这位苹果专家认为，罗德·霍尔的谨慎立场可能仍然有点过于保守。</blockquote></p><p> While stay-at-home trends may have distorted fiscal 2020 and early 2021 results, the 5G cycle, the M1 architecture, the expansion of the services portfolio and resilient consumer spending in general may still help to boost Apple's revenue-per-user metric – Goldman’s key concern.</p><p><blockquote>虽然居家趋势可能扭曲了2020财年和2021年初的业绩，但5G周期、M1架构、服务组合的扩张和总体上有弹性的消费者支出可能仍有助于提高苹果的每用户收入指标——高盛的主要关注点。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/news/why-goldman-sachs-changed-its-mind-on-apple-stock\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/news/why-goldman-sachs-changed-its-mind-on-apple-stock","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109582645","content_text":"After being on the spotlight for latching on to his pessimism over Apple stock, even following strong quarterly results, famed bear Rod Hall at Goldman Sachs threw in the towel and changed his position on AAPLfrom sell to neutral. Last week, he gave an interview to CNBC and further elaborated on his decision.\nThe Apple Maven takes a closer look at this bear’s journey from highly skeptical to timidly optimistic about Apple shares.\niPhone at the center of the bear case\nAt the core of Goldman Sachs’ sell rating on Apple stock was the Cupertino company's challenges at meeting iPhone sales growth metrics going forward. Rod Hall explained it:\n\n “Apple continues to show strong execution, but we see fundamentals more likely to disappoint in 2021 as the long-anticipated 5G iPhone fails to meet optimistic consensus expectations and services revenue growth slows.”\n\nTo be fair, Apple’s most recent financial results had been far from exhilarating ahead of Goldman’s stock rating upgrade. The Cupertino company's main revenue generator, the iPhone, had produced timid results in 2020, making some wonder if smartphone sales would disappoint at the start of the 5G cycle.\nThe plateauing in smartphone sales preceded the pandemic year. Based on data from third party-research companies Gartner and Strategy Analytics, 187 million iPhones were sold in 2019, fewer than the 217 million of 2018. And from 2019 to 2020, there was an unprecedented decrease in iPhone revenues: from $142 billion to $138 billion last year.\nTherefore, and based on recent trends, Rod Hall’s bearishness towards the iPhone seemed reasonably justifiable. What had been missing to tip Apple stock over, in the analyst’s view, was a negative catalyst. He believed that the COVID-19 pandemic could be it.\nFigure 1: iPhone quarterly revenue ($bn).\nWhen Goldman Sachs fell off the horse\nGoldman’s rating change on AAPL came in April, after the Cupertino company crushed expectations and released a blowout earnings report. Fiscal second quarter 2021 marked a turning point in iPhone 12 sales, after Apple faced delays in the launch of the new device.\nApple reported iPhone revenues of $47.9 billion versus Wall Street’s consensus $41.5 billion. Year-over-year, the top-line increase was a staggering $19 billion, representing growth of 65%.\nThese numbers probably caught Goldman’s Rod Hall flat-footed.\nHow Goldman Sachs sees Apple going forward\nAccording to Goldman, the neutral position on AAPL is justified by one key metric: revenues per user. The analyst believes that growth in this metric should be in line with U.S. GDP. He points out that Apple's revenues per user have remained static in recent years, only rising during the pandemic due to stay-at-home trends.\nOn the bullish side of the argument, Rod Hall sees the importance of privacy, and thinks that Apple could benefit from increased demand for being an advocate of user data protection. On the bearish side, the analyst remains skeptical that the services segment will grow as much as expected, and that only about 20% to 25% of active users will pay for Apple services.\nThe Apple Maven's take\nRod Hall has not been the first and will not be the last on Wall Street to be proven wrong on a stock rating. Goldman Sachs' position was contrarian, and bold for the same reason. Yet, the Apple Maven believes that Rod Hall’s cautious stance could still be a bit too conservative.\nWhile stay-at-home trends may have distorted fiscal 2020 and early 2021 results, the 5G cycle, the M1 architecture, the expansion of the services portfolio and resilient consumer spending in general may still help to boost Apple's revenue-per-user metric – Goldman’s key concern.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":605,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187471261,"gmtCreate":1623763468953,"gmtModify":1634028751135,"author":{"id":"3581982942860939","authorId":"3581982942860939","name":"SimS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581982942860939","idStr":"3581982942860939"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Battery swap powering NIO on","listText":"Battery swap powering NIO on","text":"Battery swap powering NIO on","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187471261","repostId":"1146386859","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1065,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":184723863,"gmtCreate":1623726053352,"gmtModify":1634029495350,"author":{"id":"3581982942860939","authorId":"3581982942860939","name":"SimS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581982942860939","idStr":"3581982942860939"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Silver, oil and&nbsp;copper?","listText":"Silver, oil and&nbsp;copper?","text":"Silver, oil and copper?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/184723863","repostId":"1126364171","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":475,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182814144,"gmtCreate":1623562383788,"gmtModify":1634031638456,"author":{"id":"3581982942860939","authorId":"3581982942860939","name":"SimS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581982942860939","idStr":"3581982942860939"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good article! Hit every head of the nails","listText":"Good article! Hit every head of the nails","text":"Good article! Hit every head of the nails","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/182814144","repostId":"1118102755","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1118102755","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623469189,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1118102755?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-12 11:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Don’t be fooled — inflation is a big risk for stock market investors. Here’s how to prepare<blockquote>不要被愚弄了——通货膨胀对股市投资者来说是一个很大的风险。以下是如何准备</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118102755","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Michael Brush advises on how you can avoid making mistakes as bond yields rise and the central bank ","content":"<p>  <b>Michael Brush advises on how you can avoid making mistakes as bond yields rise and the central bank reduces its stimulus.</b>  Don’t be fooled by the placid response to the highest inflation rate in over a decade. Inflation will remain elevated enough to shake up the stock market, possibly causing a selloff as much as 15%. You need to prepare now.</p><p><blockquote><b>迈克尔·布拉什(Michael Brush)就如何在债券收益率上升和央行减少刺激措施时避免犯错误提出了建议。</b>不要被对十多年来最高通胀率的平静反应所迷惑。通胀将保持在足以撼动股市的高位，可能导致高达15%的抛售。你现在需要准备。</blockquote></p><p> The reason: Persistently high inflation will move the 10-year Treasury yield to 2% and get the Federal Reserve to start tapering its stimulus by the end of the year. Both will rattle the stock market.</p><p><blockquote>原因是：持续的高通胀将使10年期国债收益率升至2%，并让美联储在年底前开始缩减刺激措施。两者都会扰乱股市。</blockquote></p><p> The government said June 10 that the cost of living surged in May and drove the pace of inflation to a 13-year high of 5%.</p><p><blockquote>政府6月10日表示，5月份生活成本飙升，推动通胀率升至5%的13年高点。</blockquote></p><p> What should you do? Probably the opposite of what you are thinking. Before we get to that, here is a look at the two key events for stocks — in the bond market and at the Fed — between today and the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote>你该怎么办？可能和你想的正好相反。在我们讨论这个问题之前，我们先来看看从今天到年底之间股市的两个关键事件——债券市场和美联储。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Rising yields</b></p><p><blockquote><b>收益率上升</b></blockquote></p><p> Remember how the stock market freaked out earlier this year when the 10-year Treasury yield TMUBMUSD10Y,1.452%&nbsp;moved up to around 1.7%? Well, expect a repeat. Only worse.</p><p><blockquote>还记得今年早些时候，当10年期国债收益率TMUBMUSD10Y, 1.452%升至1.7%左右时，股市是如何恐慌的吗？好吧，期待重演。只会更糟。</blockquote></p><p> “We suspect that inflation in the U.S. will prove more persistent than investors currently appear to anticipate,” says Capital Economics economist Franziska Palmas, citing the tight labor market and wage growth. Her research group puts the 10-year yield at 2.25% by the end of this year, and 2.5% by the end of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>凯投宏观(Capital Economics)经济学家弗兰齐斯卡·帕尔马斯(Franziska Palmas)以劳动力市场紧张和工资增长为由表示：“我们怀疑美国的通胀将比投资者目前预期的更加持久。”她的研究小组预计今年年底10年期国债收益率为2.25%，2022年底为2.5%。</blockquote></p><p> That’ll be a big move from the current level of 1.5%. Stock investors tend to panic when interest rates rise a lot.</p><p><blockquote>与目前1.5%的水平相比，这将是一个很大的变化。当利率大幅上升时，股票投资者往往会感到恐慌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Fed tapering</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美联储缩减规模</b></blockquote></p><p> Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has downplayed the need for tapering the central bank’s bond purchases to keep yields low. But half of the 12 members of the Federal Open Market Committee&nbsp;(FOMC) have recently said they’re ready to start talking about tapering. The FOMC is the Fed branch that sets monetary policy.</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席鲍威尔淡化了央行缩减购债规模以保持低收益率的必要性。但联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）12名成员中有一半最近表示，他们准备开始讨论缩减规模。FOMC是美联储制定货币政策的分支机构。</blockquote></p><p> “It will be increasingly hard for Powell to claim the economy needs to make ‘substantial further progress’ toward achieving maximum employment before the Fed starts talking about talking about tapering,” says Ed Yardeni, author of Predicting the Markets and head of Yardeni Research. Powell has repeatedly said the Fed is awaiting “substantial further progress” in the economy before terminating its stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>《预测市场》一书的作者兼亚德尼研究主管埃德·亚德尼(Ed Yardeni)表示：“在美联储开始谈论缩减规模之前，鲍威尔越来越难以声称经济需要在实现最大就业方面取得‘实质性的进一步进展’。”鲍威尔多次表示，美联储正在等待经济取得“实质性的进一步进展”，然后再终止刺激措施。</blockquote></p><p> “Given the performance of the economy, it is reasonable to expect they will start to taper before end of year, and a few months later they will start to raise the federal funds rate,” predicts Yardeni.</p><p><blockquote>亚德尼预测：“鉴于经济表现，有理由预计他们将在年底前开始缩减规模，几个月后他们将开始提高联邦基金利率。”</blockquote></p><p> He thinks the Fed will announce a decision to start tapering in its July meeting. Tapering refers to a reduction in bond purchases by the Fed. This tightens the money supply to put the brakes on growth. Once purchases go to zero, the Fed moves on to cutting rates.</p><p><blockquote>他认为美联储将在7月会议上宣布开始缩减规模的决定。Tapering是指美联储缩减购债规模。这收紧了货币供应，抑制了经济增长。一旦购买量降至零，美联储就会继续降息。</blockquote></p><p> As we know, tapering causes a “taper tantrum” in the stock market, meaning a sharp selloff in indices like the S&amp;P 500 SPX,+0.19%,&nbsp;the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA,+0.04%&nbsp;and Nasdaq COMP,+0.35%.</p><p><blockquote>众所周知，缩减规模会导致股市出现“缩减恐慌”，这意味着标普500 SPX指数+0.19%、道琼斯工业平均指数道琼斯指数+0.04%和纳斯达克综合指数+0.35%等指数大幅抛售。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How to prepare</b></p><p><blockquote><b>如何准备</b></blockquote></p><p> When considering how to position for the probable selloff caused by rising bond yields and Fed tightening, the key things to remember is why these things are happening in the first place, and what history tells us about how stocks behave.</p><p><blockquote>在考虑如何为债券收益率上升和美联储紧缩政策可能引发的抛售做好准备时，要记住的关键事情是为什么会发生这些事情，以及历史告诉我们股票的表现。</blockquote></p><p> The consensus view is that tapering and rising bond yields kill off economic growth and the bull market in stocks. But this isn’t actually true.</p><p><blockquote>人们普遍认为，缩减购债规模和债券收益率上升会扼杀经济增长和股市牛市。但这实际上不是真的。</blockquote></p><p> Yes, initially, tightening can make stocks fall — or churn sideways, at best. But then stocks shake it off and move higher as the bull market continues. This makes sense, because the tightening is happening for good reasons that help companies — strong economic growth. This pushes earnings a lot higher, which resets valuations lower — back down to levels investors feel comfortable with.</p><p><blockquote>是的，最初，紧缩可能会导致股市下跌——或者充其量是横盘震荡。但随着牛市的持续，股市摆脱了这一局面并走高。这是有道理的，因为紧缩的发生是有帮助企业的充分理由的——强劲的经济增长。这大幅推高了盈利，从而将估值重置为较低——回落到投资者感到满意的水平。</blockquote></p><p> “Tapering is part and parcel of a recovery,” says Leuthold market strategist Jim Paulsen. “It is a response to successful policy and a rebound in the economy. It is a natural part of the bull market that allows the market to go higher. It’s a healthy development.”</p><p><blockquote>Leuthold市场策略师吉姆·保尔森(Jim Paulsen)表示：“缩减规模是复苏的重要组成部分。”“这是对成功政策和经济反弹的回应。这是牛市的自然组成部分，允许市场走高。这是一种健康的发展。”</blockquote></p><p> Looking through all the market fireworks that may lie ahead, Paulsen thinks underlying economic growth will push S&amp;P 500 earnings up to $220 by the end of the year. Assuming the S&amp;P 500 is at current levels or a little bit lower, that would bring the index’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio down to 18-19 — which is near or below the average since 1990. “That sets up the next leg of the bull market,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>纵观未来可能出现的所有市场亮点，保尔森认为潜在的经济增长将推动标普500的盈利在年底前达到220美元。假设标普500处于当前水平或略低，这将使该指数的市盈率(P/E)降至18-19——接近或低于1990年以来的平均水平。“这为牛市的下一阶段奠定了基础，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Your five-point game plan</b></p><p><blockquote><b>你的五点游戏计划</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Do not go to “defensives”</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.不要去“防御性”</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> When people see stock market turbulence, the knee-jerk reaction is to go for the “stability” of defensive names like utilities and consumer staples. But that would be a mistake. You want to go to defensives when the economy is slowing or contracting, not when it is strong. Another problem is that defensive names pay yield. So, like bonds, they get hit by rising interest rates, which devalue dividends — and dividend-paying stocks and bonds.</p><p><blockquote>当人们看到股市动荡时，下意识的反应是追求公用事业和必需消费品等防御性股票的“稳定性”。但那将是一个错误。当经济放缓或收缩时，你想采取防御措施，而不是当经济强劲时。另一个问题是防御性名称需要支付收益。因此，与债券一样，它们也会受到利率上升的打击，利率上升会使股息以及支付股息的股票和债券贬值。</blockquote></p><p> “The best way to protect yourself is to tie your portfolio to the overheated economy. That is where the best profit growth and profit leverage is,” says Paulsen. “You do not get that with defensives.”</p><p><blockquote>“保护自己的最佳方式是将您的投资组合与过热的经济挂钩。这是最佳利润增长和利润杠杆的地方，”保尔森说。“防御性药物是不会有这种感觉的。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Go with companies that benefit from growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.与受益于增长的公司同行</b></blockquote></p><p> Since rapid economic growth is causing the tapering — and the growth is usually not killed off by tightening — stocks linked to growth typically are the best place to be. This means cyclicals like industrials, basic materials consumer names, small-caps and international stocks. “Slower growth consumer staples and utilities won’t keep up with growth areas of the market,” says Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>由于快速的经济增长正在导致缩减规模——而且增长通常不会被紧缩扼杀——与增长相关的股票通常是最好的选择。这意味着周期性股票，如工业股、基础材料消费股、小盘股和国际股票。保尔森表示：“消费必需品和公用事业增长放缓将无法跟上市场增长领域的步伐。”</blockquote></p><p> I first suggested Lindblad Expeditions LIND,+0.17%&nbsp;and Cardlytics CDLX,+4.54%&nbsp;and in my stock letter, Brush Up on Stocks (the link to my site is in the bio, below) in September 2020 and November 2019. I still like and own both even though they are up 48% and 157% — or two to four times the S&amp;P 500. Recent insider buying confirms they are buys and holds around current levels. Plus, both are cyclical names. Cardlytics helps credit card companies understand customer buying patterns for marketing purposes. Lindblad offers specialized cruise adventures to exotic locales. Both benefit from economic growth that powers more consumer spending.</p><p><blockquote>我首先建议Lindblad Expeditions LIND，+0.17%和Cardlytics CDLX，+4.54%，并在我的股票信中，在2020年9月和2019年11月重温股票（我网站的链接在下面的简历中）。尽管它们的股价分别上涨了48%和157%，即标普500的两到四倍，但我仍然喜欢并拥有这两家公司。最近的内部买入证实了他们在当前水平附近买入并持有。另外，两者都是循环名称。Cardlytics帮助信用卡公司出于营销目的了解客户购买模式。Lindblad提供专门的异国情调的邮轮冒险。两者都受益于推动更多消费者支出的经济增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Do not get out of stocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3、不脱销库存</b></blockquote></p><p> If you think a selloff is coming, it might be tempting to try to get out of stocks right before that, to buy back after the weakness happens. But this is a lot harder than you think. In fact, it is almost impossible to get the timing right, say market veterans.</p><p><blockquote>如果您认为抛售即将到来，那么在此之前尝试卖出股票，并在疲软发生后回购股票可能很诱人。但这比你想象的要困难得多。市场资深人士表示，事实上，几乎不可能把握好时机。</blockquote></p><p> “You have to make two smart decisions,” says Yardeni. “You have to get out just before the correction and then you have to decide when to get back in. I don’t know of too many people that can do that consistently.”</p><p><blockquote>“你必须做出两个明智的决定，”亚德尼说。“你必须在修正之前退出，然后你必须决定何时重新加入。我不知道有多少人能始终如一地做到这一点。”</blockquote></p><p> Market timers often get out and don’t get back in, and they miss the next leg up. “You can get yourself into trouble trying to avoid the correction,” says Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>市场计时器通常会退出，不会再回来，他们会错过下一轮上涨。“试图避免调整可能会给自己带来麻烦，”保尔森说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Do not own bonds</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.不持有债券</b></blockquote></p><p> Bond yields will be 2% or higher by the end of year. So don’t own bonds, whose prices fall when yields rise — unless you simply plan to hold to maturity to collect the income.</p><p><blockquote>到年底，债券收益率将达到2%或更高。因此，不要持有债券，当收益率上升时，债券的价格就会下跌——除非您只是计划持有至到期以收取收入。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Go with financials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5.选择财务</b></blockquote></p><p> Strong economies typically make the yield curve more upward sloping, meaning that long-term interest rates on 10-year Treasuries rise a lot faster than short-term interest rates. Since banks borrow at the short end and lend at the long end, steepening yield curves help them.</p><p><blockquote>强劲的经济体通常会使收益率曲线更加向上倾斜，这意味着10年期国债的长期利率上升速度远快于短期利率。由于银行在短端借款，在长端放贷，陡峭的收益率曲线对它们有帮助。</blockquote></p><p> The strong economy will also help banks release reserves and lower provisions for loan losses, both of which can boost earnings, points out Yardeni. Both JPMorgan Chase JPM,-0.07%&nbsp;and Bank of America BAC,+0.41%&nbsp;are up over twice as much as the S&amp;P 500 since I suggested them in my stock letter last August. But they still look attractive. Recent pattern buying by smart insiders among smaller banks confirms the sector is still one to own, despite the strength over the past few quarters.</p><p><blockquote>亚德尼指出，强劲的经济还将帮助银行释放准备金并降低贷款损失准备金，这两者都可以提高收益。自从我去年8月在股票信中提出建议以来，摩根大通JPM(-0.07%)和美国银行BAC(+0.41%)的涨幅都是标普500的两倍多。但它们看起来仍然很有吸引力。小型银行中聪明的内部人士最近的买入模式证实，尽管过去几个季度表现强劲，但该行业仍然值得持有。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Don’t be fooled — inflation is a big risk for stock market investors. Here’s how to prepare<blockquote>不要被愚弄了——通货膨胀对股市投资者来说是一个很大的风险。以下是如何准备</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDon’t be fooled — inflation is a big risk for stock market investors. Here’s how to prepare<blockquote>不要被愚弄了——通货膨胀对股市投资者来说是一个很大的风险。以下是如何准备</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-12 11:39</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>Michael Brush advises on how you can avoid making mistakes as bond yields rise and the central bank reduces its stimulus.</b>  Don’t be fooled by the placid response to the highest inflation rate in over a decade. Inflation will remain elevated enough to shake up the stock market, possibly causing a selloff as much as 15%. You need to prepare now.</p><p><blockquote><b>迈克尔·布拉什(Michael Brush)就如何在债券收益率上升和央行减少刺激措施时避免犯错误提出了建议。</b>不要被对十多年来最高通胀率的平静反应所迷惑。通胀将保持在足以撼动股市的高位，可能导致高达15%的抛售。你现在需要准备。</blockquote></p><p> The reason: Persistently high inflation will move the 10-year Treasury yield to 2% and get the Federal Reserve to start tapering its stimulus by the end of the year. Both will rattle the stock market.</p><p><blockquote>原因是：持续的高通胀将使10年期国债收益率升至2%，并让美联储在年底前开始缩减刺激措施。两者都会扰乱股市。</blockquote></p><p> The government said June 10 that the cost of living surged in May and drove the pace of inflation to a 13-year high of 5%.</p><p><blockquote>政府6月10日表示，5月份生活成本飙升，推动通胀率升至5%的13年高点。</blockquote></p><p> What should you do? Probably the opposite of what you are thinking. Before we get to that, here is a look at the two key events for stocks — in the bond market and at the Fed — between today and the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote>你该怎么办？可能和你想的正好相反。在我们讨论这个问题之前，我们先来看看从今天到年底之间股市的两个关键事件——债券市场和美联储。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Rising yields</b></p><p><blockquote><b>收益率上升</b></blockquote></p><p> Remember how the stock market freaked out earlier this year when the 10-year Treasury yield TMUBMUSD10Y,1.452%&nbsp;moved up to around 1.7%? Well, expect a repeat. Only worse.</p><p><blockquote>还记得今年早些时候，当10年期国债收益率TMUBMUSD10Y, 1.452%升至1.7%左右时，股市是如何恐慌的吗？好吧，期待重演。只会更糟。</blockquote></p><p> “We suspect that inflation in the U.S. will prove more persistent than investors currently appear to anticipate,” says Capital Economics economist Franziska Palmas, citing the tight labor market and wage growth. Her research group puts the 10-year yield at 2.25% by the end of this year, and 2.5% by the end of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>凯投宏观(Capital Economics)经济学家弗兰齐斯卡·帕尔马斯(Franziska Palmas)以劳动力市场紧张和工资增长为由表示：“我们怀疑美国的通胀将比投资者目前预期的更加持久。”她的研究小组预计今年年底10年期国债收益率为2.25%，2022年底为2.5%。</blockquote></p><p> That’ll be a big move from the current level of 1.5%. Stock investors tend to panic when interest rates rise a lot.</p><p><blockquote>与目前1.5%的水平相比，这将是一个很大的变化。当利率大幅上升时，股票投资者往往会感到恐慌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Fed tapering</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美联储缩减规模</b></blockquote></p><p> Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has downplayed the need for tapering the central bank’s bond purchases to keep yields low. But half of the 12 members of the Federal Open Market Committee&nbsp;(FOMC) have recently said they’re ready to start talking about tapering. The FOMC is the Fed branch that sets monetary policy.</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席鲍威尔淡化了央行缩减购债规模以保持低收益率的必要性。但联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）12名成员中有一半最近表示，他们准备开始讨论缩减规模。FOMC是美联储制定货币政策的分支机构。</blockquote></p><p> “It will be increasingly hard for Powell to claim the economy needs to make ‘substantial further progress’ toward achieving maximum employment before the Fed starts talking about talking about tapering,” says Ed Yardeni, author of Predicting the Markets and head of Yardeni Research. Powell has repeatedly said the Fed is awaiting “substantial further progress” in the economy before terminating its stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>《预测市场》一书的作者兼亚德尼研究主管埃德·亚德尼(Ed Yardeni)表示：“在美联储开始谈论缩减规模之前，鲍威尔越来越难以声称经济需要在实现最大就业方面取得‘实质性的进一步进展’。”鲍威尔多次表示，美联储正在等待经济取得“实质性的进一步进展”，然后再终止刺激措施。</blockquote></p><p> “Given the performance of the economy, it is reasonable to expect they will start to taper before end of year, and a few months later they will start to raise the federal funds rate,” predicts Yardeni.</p><p><blockquote>亚德尼预测：“鉴于经济表现，有理由预计他们将在年底前开始缩减规模，几个月后他们将开始提高联邦基金利率。”</blockquote></p><p> He thinks the Fed will announce a decision to start tapering in its July meeting. Tapering refers to a reduction in bond purchases by the Fed. This tightens the money supply to put the brakes on growth. Once purchases go to zero, the Fed moves on to cutting rates.</p><p><blockquote>他认为美联储将在7月会议上宣布开始缩减规模的决定。Tapering是指美联储缩减购债规模。这收紧了货币供应，抑制了经济增长。一旦购买量降至零，美联储就会继续降息。</blockquote></p><p> As we know, tapering causes a “taper tantrum” in the stock market, meaning a sharp selloff in indices like the S&amp;P 500 SPX,+0.19%,&nbsp;the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA,+0.04%&nbsp;and Nasdaq COMP,+0.35%.</p><p><blockquote>众所周知，缩减规模会导致股市出现“缩减恐慌”，这意味着标普500 SPX指数+0.19%、道琼斯工业平均指数道琼斯指数+0.04%和纳斯达克综合指数+0.35%等指数大幅抛售。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How to prepare</b></p><p><blockquote><b>如何准备</b></blockquote></p><p> When considering how to position for the probable selloff caused by rising bond yields and Fed tightening, the key things to remember is why these things are happening in the first place, and what history tells us about how stocks behave.</p><p><blockquote>在考虑如何为债券收益率上升和美联储紧缩政策可能引发的抛售做好准备时，要记住的关键事情是为什么会发生这些事情，以及历史告诉我们股票的表现。</blockquote></p><p> The consensus view is that tapering and rising bond yields kill off economic growth and the bull market in stocks. But this isn’t actually true.</p><p><blockquote>人们普遍认为，缩减购债规模和债券收益率上升会扼杀经济增长和股市牛市。但这实际上不是真的。</blockquote></p><p> Yes, initially, tightening can make stocks fall — or churn sideways, at best. But then stocks shake it off and move higher as the bull market continues. This makes sense, because the tightening is happening for good reasons that help companies — strong economic growth. This pushes earnings a lot higher, which resets valuations lower — back down to levels investors feel comfortable with.</p><p><blockquote>是的，最初，紧缩可能会导致股市下跌——或者充其量是横盘震荡。但随着牛市的持续，股市摆脱了这一局面并走高。这是有道理的，因为紧缩的发生是有帮助企业的充分理由的——强劲的经济增长。这大幅推高了盈利，从而将估值重置为较低——回落到投资者感到满意的水平。</blockquote></p><p> “Tapering is part and parcel of a recovery,” says Leuthold market strategist Jim Paulsen. “It is a response to successful policy and a rebound in the economy. It is a natural part of the bull market that allows the market to go higher. It’s a healthy development.”</p><p><blockquote>Leuthold市场策略师吉姆·保尔森(Jim Paulsen)表示：“缩减规模是复苏的重要组成部分。”“这是对成功政策和经济反弹的回应。这是牛市的自然组成部分，允许市场走高。这是一种健康的发展。”</blockquote></p><p> Looking through all the market fireworks that may lie ahead, Paulsen thinks underlying economic growth will push S&amp;P 500 earnings up to $220 by the end of the year. Assuming the S&amp;P 500 is at current levels or a little bit lower, that would bring the index’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio down to 18-19 — which is near or below the average since 1990. “That sets up the next leg of the bull market,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>纵观未来可能出现的所有市场亮点，保尔森认为潜在的经济增长将推动标普500的盈利在年底前达到220美元。假设标普500处于当前水平或略低，这将使该指数的市盈率(P/E)降至18-19——接近或低于1990年以来的平均水平。“这为牛市的下一阶段奠定了基础，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Your five-point game plan</b></p><p><blockquote><b>你的五点游戏计划</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Do not go to “defensives”</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.不要去“防御性”</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> When people see stock market turbulence, the knee-jerk reaction is to go for the “stability” of defensive names like utilities and consumer staples. But that would be a mistake. You want to go to defensives when the economy is slowing or contracting, not when it is strong. Another problem is that defensive names pay yield. So, like bonds, they get hit by rising interest rates, which devalue dividends — and dividend-paying stocks and bonds.</p><p><blockquote>当人们看到股市动荡时，下意识的反应是追求公用事业和必需消费品等防御性股票的“稳定性”。但那将是一个错误。当经济放缓或收缩时，你想采取防御措施，而不是当经济强劲时。另一个问题是防御性名称需要支付收益。因此，与债券一样，它们也会受到利率上升的打击，利率上升会使股息以及支付股息的股票和债券贬值。</blockquote></p><p> “The best way to protect yourself is to tie your portfolio to the overheated economy. That is where the best profit growth and profit leverage is,” says Paulsen. “You do not get that with defensives.”</p><p><blockquote>“保护自己的最佳方式是将您的投资组合与过热的经济挂钩。这是最佳利润增长和利润杠杆的地方，”保尔森说。“防御性药物是不会有这种感觉的。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Go with companies that benefit from growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.与受益于增长的公司同行</b></blockquote></p><p> Since rapid economic growth is causing the tapering — and the growth is usually not killed off by tightening — stocks linked to growth typically are the best place to be. This means cyclicals like industrials, basic materials consumer names, small-caps and international stocks. “Slower growth consumer staples and utilities won’t keep up with growth areas of the market,” says Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>由于快速的经济增长正在导致缩减规模——而且增长通常不会被紧缩扼杀——与增长相关的股票通常是最好的选择。这意味着周期性股票，如工业股、基础材料消费股、小盘股和国际股票。保尔森表示：“消费必需品和公用事业增长放缓将无法跟上市场增长领域的步伐。”</blockquote></p><p> I first suggested Lindblad Expeditions LIND,+0.17%&nbsp;and Cardlytics CDLX,+4.54%&nbsp;and in my stock letter, Brush Up on Stocks (the link to my site is in the bio, below) in September 2020 and November 2019. I still like and own both even though they are up 48% and 157% — or two to four times the S&amp;P 500. Recent insider buying confirms they are buys and holds around current levels. Plus, both are cyclical names. Cardlytics helps credit card companies understand customer buying patterns for marketing purposes. Lindblad offers specialized cruise adventures to exotic locales. Both benefit from economic growth that powers more consumer spending.</p><p><blockquote>我首先建议Lindblad Expeditions LIND，+0.17%和Cardlytics CDLX，+4.54%，并在我的股票信中，在2020年9月和2019年11月重温股票（我网站的链接在下面的简历中）。尽管它们的股价分别上涨了48%和157%，即标普500的两到四倍，但我仍然喜欢并拥有这两家公司。最近的内部买入证实了他们在当前水平附近买入并持有。另外，两者都是循环名称。Cardlytics帮助信用卡公司出于营销目的了解客户购买模式。Lindblad提供专门的异国情调的邮轮冒险。两者都受益于推动更多消费者支出的经济增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Do not get out of stocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3、不脱销库存</b></blockquote></p><p> If you think a selloff is coming, it might be tempting to try to get out of stocks right before that, to buy back after the weakness happens. But this is a lot harder than you think. In fact, it is almost impossible to get the timing right, say market veterans.</p><p><blockquote>如果您认为抛售即将到来，那么在此之前尝试卖出股票，并在疲软发生后回购股票可能很诱人。但这比你想象的要困难得多。市场资深人士表示，事实上，几乎不可能把握好时机。</blockquote></p><p> “You have to make two smart decisions,” says Yardeni. “You have to get out just before the correction and then you have to decide when to get back in. I don’t know of too many people that can do that consistently.”</p><p><blockquote>“你必须做出两个明智的决定，”亚德尼说。“你必须在修正之前退出，然后你必须决定何时重新加入。我不知道有多少人能始终如一地做到这一点。”</blockquote></p><p> Market timers often get out and don’t get back in, and they miss the next leg up. “You can get yourself into trouble trying to avoid the correction,” says Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>市场计时器通常会退出，不会再回来，他们会错过下一轮上涨。“试图避免调整可能会给自己带来麻烦，”保尔森说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Do not own bonds</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.不持有债券</b></blockquote></p><p> Bond yields will be 2% or higher by the end of year. So don’t own bonds, whose prices fall when yields rise — unless you simply plan to hold to maturity to collect the income.</p><p><blockquote>到年底，债券收益率将达到2%或更高。因此，不要持有债券，当收益率上升时，债券的价格就会下跌——除非您只是计划持有至到期以收取收入。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Go with financials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5.选择财务</b></blockquote></p><p> Strong economies typically make the yield curve more upward sloping, meaning that long-term interest rates on 10-year Treasuries rise a lot faster than short-term interest rates. Since banks borrow at the short end and lend at the long end, steepening yield curves help them.</p><p><blockquote>强劲的经济体通常会使收益率曲线更加向上倾斜，这意味着10年期国债的长期利率上升速度远快于短期利率。由于银行在短端借款，在长端放贷，陡峭的收益率曲线对它们有帮助。</blockquote></p><p> The strong economy will also help banks release reserves and lower provisions for loan losses, both of which can boost earnings, points out Yardeni. Both JPMorgan Chase JPM,-0.07%&nbsp;and Bank of America BAC,+0.41%&nbsp;are up over twice as much as the S&amp;P 500 since I suggested them in my stock letter last August. But they still look attractive. Recent pattern buying by smart insiders among smaller banks confirms the sector is still one to own, despite the strength over the past few quarters.</p><p><blockquote>亚德尼指出，强劲的经济还将帮助银行释放准备金并降低贷款损失准备金，这两者都可以提高收益。自从我去年8月在股票信中提出建议以来，摩根大通JPM(-0.07%)和美国银行BAC(+0.41%)的涨幅都是标普500的两倍多。但它们看起来仍然很有吸引力。小型银行中聪明的内部人士最近的买入模式证实，尽管过去几个季度表现强劲，但该行业仍然值得持有。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dont-be-fooled-inflation-is-a-big-risk-for-stock-market-investors-heres-how-to-prepare-11623421036?siteid=yhoof2\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dont-be-fooled-inflation-is-a-big-risk-for-stock-market-investors-heres-how-to-prepare-11623421036?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118102755","content_text":"Michael Brush advises on how you can avoid making mistakes as bond yields rise and the central bank reduces its stimulus.\n\nDon’t be fooled by the placid response to the highest inflation rate in over a decade. Inflation will remain elevated enough to shake up the stock market, possibly causing a selloff as much as 15%. You need to prepare now.\nThe reason: Persistently high inflation will move the 10-year Treasury yield to 2% and get the Federal Reserve to start tapering its stimulus by the end of the year. Both will rattle the stock market.\nThe government said June 10 that the cost of living surged in May and drove the pace of inflation to a 13-year high of 5%.\nWhat should you do? Probably the opposite of what you are thinking. Before we get to that, here is a look at the two key events for stocks — in the bond market and at the Fed — between today and the end of the year.\nRising yields\nRemember how the stock market freaked out earlier this year when the 10-year Treasury yield TMUBMUSD10Y,1.452% moved up to around 1.7%? Well, expect a repeat. Only worse.\n“We suspect that inflation in the U.S. will prove more persistent than investors currently appear to anticipate,” says Capital Economics economist Franziska Palmas, citing the tight labor market and wage growth. Her research group puts the 10-year yield at 2.25% by the end of this year, and 2.5% by the end of 2022.\nThat’ll be a big move from the current level of 1.5%. Stock investors tend to panic when interest rates rise a lot.\nFed tapering\nFed Chairman Jerome Powell has downplayed the need for tapering the central bank’s bond purchases to keep yields low. But half of the 12 members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) have recently said they’re ready to start talking about tapering. The FOMC is the Fed branch that sets monetary policy.\n“It will be increasingly hard for Powell to claim the economy needs to make ‘substantial further progress’ toward achieving maximum employment before the Fed starts talking about talking about tapering,” says Ed Yardeni, author of Predicting the Markets and head of Yardeni Research. Powell has repeatedly said the Fed is awaiting “substantial further progress” in the economy before terminating its stimulus.\n“Given the performance of the economy, it is reasonable to expect they will start to taper before end of year, and a few months later they will start to raise the federal funds rate,” predicts Yardeni.\nHe thinks the Fed will announce a decision to start tapering in its July meeting. Tapering refers to a reduction in bond purchases by the Fed. This tightens the money supply to put the brakes on growth. Once purchases go to zero, the Fed moves on to cutting rates.\nAs we know, tapering causes a “taper tantrum” in the stock market, meaning a sharp selloff in indices like the S&P 500 SPX,+0.19%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA,+0.04% and Nasdaq COMP,+0.35%.\nHow to prepare\nWhen considering how to position for the probable selloff caused by rising bond yields and Fed tightening, the key things to remember is why these things are happening in the first place, and what history tells us about how stocks behave.\nThe consensus view is that tapering and rising bond yields kill off economic growth and the bull market in stocks. But this isn’t actually true.\nYes, initially, tightening can make stocks fall — or churn sideways, at best. But then stocks shake it off and move higher as the bull market continues. This makes sense, because the tightening is happening for good reasons that help companies — strong economic growth. This pushes earnings a lot higher, which resets valuations lower — back down to levels investors feel comfortable with.\n“Tapering is part and parcel of a recovery,” says Leuthold market strategist Jim Paulsen. “It is a response to successful policy and a rebound in the economy. It is a natural part of the bull market that allows the market to go higher. It’s a healthy development.”\nLooking through all the market fireworks that may lie ahead, Paulsen thinks underlying economic growth will push S&P 500 earnings up to $220 by the end of the year. Assuming the S&P 500 is at current levels or a little bit lower, that would bring the index’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio down to 18-19 — which is near or below the average since 1990. “That sets up the next leg of the bull market,” he says.\nYour five-point game plan\n1. Do not go to “defensives”\nWhen people see stock market turbulence, the knee-jerk reaction is to go for the “stability” of defensive names like utilities and consumer staples. But that would be a mistake. You want to go to defensives when the economy is slowing or contracting, not when it is strong. Another problem is that defensive names pay yield. So, like bonds, they get hit by rising interest rates, which devalue dividends — and dividend-paying stocks and bonds.\n“The best way to protect yourself is to tie your portfolio to the overheated economy. That is where the best profit growth and profit leverage is,” says Paulsen. “You do not get that with defensives.”\n2. Go with companies that benefit from growth\nSince rapid economic growth is causing the tapering — and the growth is usually not killed off by tightening — stocks linked to growth typically are the best place to be. This means cyclicals like industrials, basic materials consumer names, small-caps and international stocks. “Slower growth consumer staples and utilities won’t keep up with growth areas of the market,” says Paulsen.\nI first suggested Lindblad Expeditions LIND,+0.17% and Cardlytics CDLX,+4.54% and in my stock letter, Brush Up on Stocks (the link to my site is in the bio, below) in September 2020 and November 2019. I still like and own both even though they are up 48% and 157% — or two to four times the S&P 500. Recent insider buying confirms they are buys and holds around current levels. Plus, both are cyclical names. Cardlytics helps credit card companies understand customer buying patterns for marketing purposes. Lindblad offers specialized cruise adventures to exotic locales. Both benefit from economic growth that powers more consumer spending.\n3. Do not get out of stocks\nIf you think a selloff is coming, it might be tempting to try to get out of stocks right before that, to buy back after the weakness happens. But this is a lot harder than you think. In fact, it is almost impossible to get the timing right, say market veterans.\n“You have to make two smart decisions,” says Yardeni. “You have to get out just before the correction and then you have to decide when to get back in. I don’t know of too many people that can do that consistently.”\nMarket timers often get out and don’t get back in, and they miss the next leg up. “You can get yourself into trouble trying to avoid the correction,” says Paulsen.\n4. Do not own bonds\nBond yields will be 2% or higher by the end of year. So don’t own bonds, whose prices fall when yields rise — unless you simply plan to hold to maturity to collect the income.\n5. Go with financials\nStrong economies typically make the yield curve more upward sloping, meaning that long-term interest rates on 10-year Treasuries rise a lot faster than short-term interest rates. Since banks borrow at the short end and lend at the long end, steepening yield curves help them.\nThe strong economy will also help banks release reserves and lower provisions for loan losses, both of which can boost earnings, points out Yardeni. Both JPMorgan Chase JPM,-0.07% and Bank of America BAC,+0.41% are up over twice as much as the S&P 500 since I suggested them in my stock letter last August. But they still look attractive. Recent pattern buying by smart insiders among smaller banks confirms the sector is still one to own, despite the strength over the past few quarters.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1021,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181180175,"gmtCreate":1623378381897,"gmtModify":1634033989628,"author":{"id":"3581982942860939","authorId":"3581982942860939","name":"SimS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581982942860939","idStr":"3581982942860939"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good news","listText":"Good news","text":"Good news","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181180175","repostId":"1193863762","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1005,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181114065,"gmtCreate":1623378271357,"gmtModify":1634033991017,"author":{"id":"3581982942860939","authorId":"3581982942860939","name":"SimS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581982942860939","idStr":"3581982942860939"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Seems bright","listText":"Seems bright","text":"Seems bright","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181114065","repostId":"1127823989","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":696,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181118954,"gmtCreate":1623378102378,"gmtModify":1634033993795,"author":{"id":"3581982942860939","authorId":"3581982942860939","name":"SimS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581982942860939","idStr":"3581982942860939"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"This is so exciting!","listText":"This is so exciting!","text":"This is so exciting!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181118954","repostId":"1147547408","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1245,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":189494785,"gmtCreate":1623284368047,"gmtModify":1634035034588,"author":{"id":"3581982942860939","authorId":"3581982942860939","name":"SimS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581982942860939","idStr":"3581982942860939"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good leads","listText":"Good leads","text":"Good leads","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/189494785","repostId":"1141925795","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1199,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":189495264,"gmtCreate":1623284328158,"gmtModify":1634035035788,"author":{"id":"3581982942860939","authorId":"3581982942860939","name":"SimS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581982942860939","idStr":"3581982942860939"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"If you smellllalalalalalalala… what the Rock…. issss cooookinggggggg 🤨","listText":"If you smellllalalalalalalala… what the Rock…. issss cooookinggggggg 🤨","text":"If you smellllalalalalalalala… what the Rock…. issss cooookinggggggg 🤨","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/189495264","repostId":"1145830147","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":945,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":128382423,"gmtCreate":1624501995962,"gmtModify":1634005177788,"author":{"id":"3581982942860939","authorId":"3581982942860939","name":"SimS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581982942860939","authorIdStr":"3581982942860939"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"How many Tesla cars in Tibet?","listText":"How many Tesla cars in Tibet?","text":"How many Tesla cars in Tibet?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128382423","repostId":"2145156570","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2402,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":116595045,"gmtCreate":1622810002687,"gmtModify":1634097811001,"author":{"id":"3581982942860939","authorId":"3581982942860939","name":"SimS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581982942860939","authorIdStr":"3581982942860939"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Give a like on my comment for the big AAPL tree","listText":"Give a like on my comment for the big AAPL tree","text":"Give a like on my comment for the big AAPL tree","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/116595045","repostId":"1122373606","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122373606","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622793373,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122373606?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-04 15:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider<blockquote>10年后苹果股票会在哪里？要考虑什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122373606","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nApple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite different.</li>  <li>Apple has seen its growth slow down over the last decade, and it will likely not be a growth monster in the coming years, either.</li>  <li>Shares have ample long-term upside, but investors should consider the current valuation before jumping to decisions.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f2ea192ed76d9772c2c6a820098faf5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by Paopano/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果在过去十年中是一项伟大的投资，但下一个十年可能会大不相同。</li><li>苹果的增长在过去十年中有所放缓，未来几年也可能不会成为增长怪物。</li><li>股价具有充足的长期上涨空间，但投资者在做出决定之前应考虑当前的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Paopano/iStock社论，来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple (AAPL) has been one of the best investments one could have made over the last decade. Over the next decade, its growth may not be the same, however. Yet, thanks to massive shareholder return programs and a move towards services, Apple's stock will likely still be significantly higher a decade from now - even though the current valuation is rather high.</p><p><blockquote>苹果（AAPL）是过去十年中最好的投资之一。然而，在接下来的十年里，它的增长可能会有所不同。然而，由于大规模的股东回报计划和向服务业的转变，苹果的股价在十年后仍可能大幅上涨——尽管目前的估值相当高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Over the last decade, Apple Inc. has been a great investment:</p><p><blockquote>在过去十年中，苹果公司一直是一项伟大的投资：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d29aa34bdbc5bab7d0730a4095954e6\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares have returned 900% in those ten years, before dividends, for a compounded annual return of approximately 26%, easily trouncing the returns of the broad market during that time frame. Importantly, shares have risen a lot more than the company's market capitalization, which grew by only 550% over the last decade. The difference can be explained by the company's large share repurchase programs, which have lowered the share count drastically over the last decade. The last decade, of course, was a highly successful period for Apple on a business basis, as the company benefited from the rise of smartphones while also having success with new products such as its Watch and tablets, which Apple more or less introduced as a new product category. Right now, shares trade for $125, up 57% over the last twelve months, but down 6% in 2021 to date. Following strong gains during 2020, shares seem to be in a consolidation pattern for now, which is not too much of a surprise, as Apple's valuation had expanded a lot in the recent past, and it seems that the company's business growth has to catch up to the recent share price increases now. The current consensus price target is $156, which implies an upside potential of 25%. Since there are no signs of shares leaving their current trading range right now, I personally do not think that Apple will breach $150 in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>在这十年中，扣除股息前，股票回报率为900%，复合年回报率约为26%，轻松击败了同期大盘的回报率。重要的是，该公司股价的涨幅远远超过了该公司的市值，而该公司的市值在过去十年中仅增长了550%。这种差异可以用该公司的大规模股票回购计划来解释，该计划在过去十年中大幅减少了股票数量。当然，过去十年对苹果来说是一个商业上非常成功的时期，因为该公司受益于智能手机的兴起，同时也在手表和平板电脑等新产品上取得了成功，苹果或多或少地将其作为一个新产品类别推出。目前，股价为125美元，过去12个月上涨57%，但2021年迄今下跌6%。继2020年强劲上涨之后，股价目前似乎处于盘整格局，这并不令人意外，因为苹果的估值最近已经扩大了很多，而且该公司的业务增长似乎必须赶上最近的股价上涨。目前的一致目标价为156美元，这意味着25%的上涨潜力。由于目前没有迹象表明股价会离开当前的交易区间，我个人认为苹果短期内不会突破150美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years</b></p><p><blockquote><b>10年后苹果股票会在哪里</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple's stock price in 2031 is, of course, nothing that can be forecasted with any precision. As history has shown, again and again, it is not even possible to forecast share prices precisely over a much shorter period of time. It is, however, possible to craft scenarios to see where share prices could be in the future under certain conditions, to get a feel for what might be a reasonable expectation for the future.</p><p><blockquote>当然，苹果2031年的股价是无法准确预测的。正如历史一次又一次地表明的那样，甚至不可能在更短的时间内准确预测股价。然而，可以设计情景来了解在某些条件下未来股价的走势，从而了解对未来的合理预期。</blockquote></p><p> To craft one such scenario, we have to consider Apple's business growth, Apple's shareholder return program, and the valuation multiple that shares might trade at in the future.</p><p><blockquote>为了构建这样的场景，我们必须考虑苹果的业务增长、苹果的股东回报计划以及股票未来可能交易的估值倍数。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's business growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的业务增长</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple Inc. has seen years of stronger growth and years of weaker growth in the past. This mostly can be explained by factors such as new product introductions, e.g. Watch or iPad, and by the strength of the respective current iPhone models, which see varying demand depending on the year. Other factors, such as economic growth or trade issues, play a role as well.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司过去曾经历过多年的强劲增长和多年的疲软增长。这主要可以用新产品推出等因素来解释，例如。手表或iPad，以及各自当前iPhone型号的强度，这些型号的需求因年份而异。其他因素，如经济增长或贸易问题，也发挥了作用。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5b8bd8ef6cdaa13850c1380e870554c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Overall, revenues have grown by 154% over the last decade, but as we see in the above chart, revenue growth has been relatively uneven. During the early 2010s, Apple generated massive growth on the back of the iPhones \"road to victory\", whereas revenue growth declined to a much slower pace in the following years. There were even some years during which revenues declined on a year-over-year basis, such as 2016. The average annual revenue growth pace was 10% over the last decade, but when we factor in that this was lifted up by the very strong growth in 2011 and 2012, it may not be too reasonable to assume that Apple will grow by 10% a year in the future, too. Investors should also consider that maintaining a high growth rate becomes ever more difficult the larger a company gets. This does, however, not mean that Apple's revenue growth will slow down to zero.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，过去十年收入增长了154%，但正如我们在上图中看到的，收入增长相对不均衡。2010年代初，苹果凭借iPhone的“胜利之路”实现了巨大增长，而在接下来的几年里，收入增长速度放缓。甚至有一些年份的收入同比下降，例如2016年。过去十年的平均年收入增长率为10%，但当我们考虑到2011年和2012年的强劲增长推动了这一增长率时，假设苹果将增长10%可能不太合理。未来一年也是如此。投资者还应该考虑到，公司规模越大，保持高增长率就变得越困难。然而，这并不意味着苹果的收入增长将放缓至零。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> On the back of price increases for its products and the potential for market share gains in&nbsp;high-growth countries such as China, where more and more people will be able to buy Apple's higher-priced products, it seems reasonable to assume that Apple will generate at least some growth from its core businesses. Add in growth in the services segment - people use their phones more and more, which should lead to higher app spending - and consider the potential for new product launches (although I assume none will be as massive as the iPhone), and Apple should be able to grow its business at a solid pace. I personally assume that a 5%-7% revenue growth rate could be a realistic estimate for the coming years, although some readers will of course have different opinions.</p><p><blockquote>在其产品价格上涨以及中国等高增长国家市场份额增长的潜力（越来越多的人将能够购买苹果价格较高的产品）的背景下，似乎有理由假设苹果将至少从其核心业务中产生一些增长。再加上服务领域的增长——人们越来越多地使用手机，这应该会导致更高的应用支出——并考虑新产品发布的潜力（尽管我认为没有一款产品会像iPhone那样庞大），苹果应该能够以稳健的速度发展其业务。我个人认为5%-7%的收入增长率可能是未来几年的现实估计，尽管一些读者当然会有不同的意见。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's shareholder returns</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的股东回报</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple has lowered its share count massively in the past, as shown above, and it is, I believe, reasonable to assume that the same will happen going forward. Over the last decade, Apple bought back 36% of its shares. If the same were to happen over the next decade, each remaining share's portion of the company's value would rise by 56%, or 4.6% annualized. Due to the fact that Apple's current valuation is significantly higher than its historic valuation, buybacks could be less impactful in the future, though. Apple has, for example, only reduced its share count by 2.6% over the last year.</p><p><blockquote>如上所示，苹果过去曾大幅减少其股票数量，我相信，有理由假设未来也会发生同样的情况。过去十年，苹果回购了36%的股份。如果未来十年发生同样的情况，每股剩余股票在公司价值中的份额将上涨56%，即年化4.6%。不过，由于苹果目前的估值明显高于其历史估值，回购在未来的影响可能会较小。例如，苹果去年的股票数量仅减少了2.6%。</blockquote></p><p> This is why I believe that the share count will not decline by another 36% over the coming decade. When we adjust that downward to 25%, this would result in a ~3% annual tailwind for Apple's growth when we look at per-share metrics, which are the deciding factor for Apple's share price growth. Combined with my 5%-7% business growth estimate, I thus assume that Apple will grow by 8%-10% on a per-share basis in the long term.</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么我相信未来十年股票数量不会再下降36%。当我们将其向下调整至25%时，当我们考虑每股指标时，这将为苹果的增长带来约3%的年度推动力，而每股指标是苹果股价增长的决定性因素。结合我5%-7%的业务增长预测，我因此假设苹果的每股长期增长将达到8%-10%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's future valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的未来估值</b></blockquote></p><p> AAPL has been valued in a very wide range in the past, seeing its shares trade for very low multiples at some points, whereas investors were willing to pay significantly more at other times:</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司过去的估值范围很广，其股票在某些时候的市盈率非常低，而投资者在其他时候愿意支付更高的价格：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be5cb8bbc04ff0e0a13ee64f6f2bd90a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"470\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares could, five years ago, be bought for a very low 10x net earnings, which naturally was a great time to enter or expand positions. In late 2020, however, shares were trading for as much as 40x the company's net earnings, which seems like a quite high valuation. Right now, AAPL trades at 28x trailing earnings, and at around 24x forward profits. In the above chart, we also see the median earnings multiples over the last 3, 5, 7, and 10 years. It is pretty clear that Apple's valuation has expanded over the years, which is why the median values are higher for the shorter \"lookback\" periods. I do not believe that AAPL will trade at the 15.5x net earnings that it has traded at, on average, over the last decade, as this seems like a rather low valuation for a quality company like Apple with a strong brand, massive scale, great margins, and a fortress balance sheet. On the other hand, I also don't believe that Apple will trade at a 24-28x earnings multiple forever - for a company that generates solid but unspectacular business growth in the mid-single-digits, that seems quite expensive. This is especially true when we consider that interest rates will likely be higher a decade from now, which should pressure valuations for all equities, all else equal. I thus believe that a valuation of around 20x net earnings could be a reasonable estimate for 2031, which would be more or less in line with the 3-year median earnings multiple.</p><p><blockquote>五年前，可以以非常低的10倍净利润购买股票，这自然是进入或扩大头寸的好时机。然而，2020年底，该公司的股价高达该公司净利润的40倍，这似乎是一个相当高的估值。目前，AAPL的往绩市盈率为28倍，远期利润约为24倍。在上图中，我们还看到了过去3年、5年、7年和10年的市盈率中位数。很明显，苹果的估值多年来一直在扩大，这就是为什么在较短的“回顾”期内中值较高。我不认为AAPL的市盈率会达到过去十年平均市盈率的15.5倍，因为对于像苹果这样拥有强大品牌、庞大规模的优质公司来说，这似乎是一个相当低的估值。、巨大的利润和堡垒般的资产负债表。另一方面，我也不相信苹果的市盈率会永远保持在24-28倍——对于一家业务增长稳健但不引人注目的中个位数的公司来说，这似乎相当昂贵。当我们考虑到十年后利率可能会更高时，尤其如此，在其他条件相同的情况下，这应该会给所有股票的估值带来压力。因此，我认为2031年净利润20倍左右的估值可能是合理的估计，这或多或少与3年市盈率中位数一致。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is AAPL A Buy Or Sell Now</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AAPL现在是买入还是卖出</b></blockquote></p><p> Starting our calculation with an EPS estimate of $5.15 for 2021 and assuming that this will grow by 7%-10% a year through 2031, we reach an EPS range of $10.10 to $13.40. Putting a 20x earnings multiple on that leads to a target price of around $200-$270/share. At the midpoint of around $235, shares would thus see gains of around 90% from the current level, or around 6.5% annualized. That surely is not a bad return, and when we add in the dividend, we would get to an annualized return of roughly 7%. This is, on the other hand, also not an outrageously great return, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>从2021年每股收益估计为5.15美元开始计算，并假设到2031年每年增长7%-10%，我们的每股收益范围为10.10美元至13.40美元。将市盈率定为20倍，目标价约为每股200-270美元。因此，在235美元左右的中点，股价将较当前水平上涨约90%，年化涨幅约为6.5%。这肯定是一个不错的回报，当我们加上股息时，我们将获得大约7%的年化回报率。另一方面，我相信这也不是一个惊人的回报。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> AAPL has, I believe, significant upside potential over the next decade, but that should not be a large surprise - many companies will see significant growth over a time span this long. I personally am not too excited about a 7% expected long-term return. When we consider that shares do have considerable downside risk in the next 1-3 years if Apple's valuation declines, e.g. due to rising interest rates, it may be a better choice to stay on the sidelines for now. Long-term investors will likely not do badly when they buy shares at current levels, but they will likely also not do great. For now, I'd rate Apple a hold, and a potential buy if its valuation comes closer to the longer-term average. Those that are more optimistic about new product launches may disagree and favor buying here, but it could turn out that waiting for a better opportunity is the best choice here.</p><p><blockquote>我相信，苹果公司在未来十年具有巨大的上涨潜力，但这并不令人意外——许多公司将在这么长的时间内实现显着增长。我个人对7%的预期长期回报率不太兴奋。当我们考虑到，如果苹果的估值下降，例如由于利率上升，股价在未来1-3年内确实存在相当大的下行风险，目前保持观望可能是更好的选择。长期投资者在当前水平购买股票时可能不会表现不佳，但也可能不会表现出色。目前，我对苹果的评级为持有，如果其估值接近长期平均水平，则可能买入。那些对新产品发布更乐观的人可能不同意并倾向于在这里购买，但事实证明，等待更好的机会是这里的最佳选择。</blockquote></p><p> Summing it up, I'd say shares do have significant upside potential over the next decade, but the upside potential is not large enough to make me buy shares at current, elevated, valuations.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，我想说，该股在未来十年确实有巨大的上涨潜力，但上涨潜力还不足以让我以当前较高的估值购买股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider<blockquote>10年后苹果股票会在哪里？要考虑什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider<blockquote>10年后苹果股票会在哪里？要考虑什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-04 15:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite different.</li>  <li>Apple has seen its growth slow down over the last decade, and it will likely not be a growth monster in the coming years, either.</li>  <li>Shares have ample long-term upside, but investors should consider the current valuation before jumping to decisions.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f2ea192ed76d9772c2c6a820098faf5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by Paopano/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果在过去十年中是一项伟大的投资，但下一个十年可能会大不相同。</li><li>苹果的增长在过去十年中有所放缓，未来几年也可能不会成为增长怪物。</li><li>股价具有充足的长期上涨空间，但投资者在做出决定之前应考虑当前的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Paopano/iStock社论，来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple (AAPL) has been one of the best investments one could have made over the last decade. Over the next decade, its growth may not be the same, however. Yet, thanks to massive shareholder return programs and a move towards services, Apple's stock will likely still be significantly higher a decade from now - even though the current valuation is rather high.</p><p><blockquote>苹果（AAPL）是过去十年中最好的投资之一。然而，在接下来的十年里，它的增长可能会有所不同。然而，由于大规模的股东回报计划和向服务业的转变，苹果的股价在十年后仍可能大幅上涨——尽管目前的估值相当高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Over the last decade, Apple Inc. has been a great investment:</p><p><blockquote>在过去十年中，苹果公司一直是一项伟大的投资：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d29aa34bdbc5bab7d0730a4095954e6\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares have returned 900% in those ten years, before dividends, for a compounded annual return of approximately 26%, easily trouncing the returns of the broad market during that time frame. Importantly, shares have risen a lot more than the company's market capitalization, which grew by only 550% over the last decade. The difference can be explained by the company's large share repurchase programs, which have lowered the share count drastically over the last decade. The last decade, of course, was a highly successful period for Apple on a business basis, as the company benefited from the rise of smartphones while also having success with new products such as its Watch and tablets, which Apple more or less introduced as a new product category. Right now, shares trade for $125, up 57% over the last twelve months, but down 6% in 2021 to date. Following strong gains during 2020, shares seem to be in a consolidation pattern for now, which is not too much of a surprise, as Apple's valuation had expanded a lot in the recent past, and it seems that the company's business growth has to catch up to the recent share price increases now. The current consensus price target is $156, which implies an upside potential of 25%. Since there are no signs of shares leaving their current trading range right now, I personally do not think that Apple will breach $150 in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>在这十年中，扣除股息前，股票回报率为900%，复合年回报率约为26%，轻松击败了同期大盘的回报率。重要的是，该公司股价的涨幅远远超过了该公司的市值，而该公司的市值在过去十年中仅增长了550%。这种差异可以用该公司的大规模股票回购计划来解释，该计划在过去十年中大幅减少了股票数量。当然，过去十年对苹果来说是一个商业上非常成功的时期，因为该公司受益于智能手机的兴起，同时也在手表和平板电脑等新产品上取得了成功，苹果或多或少地将其作为一个新产品类别推出。目前，股价为125美元，过去12个月上涨57%，但2021年迄今下跌6%。继2020年强劲上涨之后，股价目前似乎处于盘整格局，这并不令人意外，因为苹果的估值最近已经扩大了很多，而且该公司的业务增长似乎必须赶上最近的股价上涨。目前的一致目标价为156美元，这意味着25%的上涨潜力。由于目前没有迹象表明股价会离开当前的交易区间，我个人认为苹果短期内不会突破150美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years</b></p><p><blockquote><b>10年后苹果股票会在哪里</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple's stock price in 2031 is, of course, nothing that can be forecasted with any precision. As history has shown, again and again, it is not even possible to forecast share prices precisely over a much shorter period of time. It is, however, possible to craft scenarios to see where share prices could be in the future under certain conditions, to get a feel for what might be a reasonable expectation for the future.</p><p><blockquote>当然，苹果2031年的股价是无法准确预测的。正如历史一次又一次地表明的那样，甚至不可能在更短的时间内准确预测股价。然而，可以设计情景来了解在某些条件下未来股价的走势，从而了解对未来的合理预期。</blockquote></p><p> To craft one such scenario, we have to consider Apple's business growth, Apple's shareholder return program, and the valuation multiple that shares might trade at in the future.</p><p><blockquote>为了构建这样的场景，我们必须考虑苹果的业务增长、苹果的股东回报计划以及股票未来可能交易的估值倍数。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's business growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的业务增长</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple Inc. has seen years of stronger growth and years of weaker growth in the past. This mostly can be explained by factors such as new product introductions, e.g. Watch or iPad, and by the strength of the respective current iPhone models, which see varying demand depending on the year. Other factors, such as economic growth or trade issues, play a role as well.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司过去曾经历过多年的强劲增长和多年的疲软增长。这主要可以用新产品推出等因素来解释，例如。手表或iPad，以及各自当前iPhone型号的强度，这些型号的需求因年份而异。其他因素，如经济增长或贸易问题，也发挥了作用。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5b8bd8ef6cdaa13850c1380e870554c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Overall, revenues have grown by 154% over the last decade, but as we see in the above chart, revenue growth has been relatively uneven. During the early 2010s, Apple generated massive growth on the back of the iPhones \"road to victory\", whereas revenue growth declined to a much slower pace in the following years. There were even some years during which revenues declined on a year-over-year basis, such as 2016. The average annual revenue growth pace was 10% over the last decade, but when we factor in that this was lifted up by the very strong growth in 2011 and 2012, it may not be too reasonable to assume that Apple will grow by 10% a year in the future, too. Investors should also consider that maintaining a high growth rate becomes ever more difficult the larger a company gets. This does, however, not mean that Apple's revenue growth will slow down to zero.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，过去十年收入增长了154%，但正如我们在上图中看到的，收入增长相对不均衡。2010年代初，苹果凭借iPhone的“胜利之路”实现了巨大增长，而在接下来的几年里，收入增长速度放缓。甚至有一些年份的收入同比下降，例如2016年。过去十年的平均年收入增长率为10%，但当我们考虑到2011年和2012年的强劲增长推动了这一增长率时，假设苹果将增长10%可能不太合理。未来一年也是如此。投资者还应该考虑到，公司规模越大，保持高增长率就变得越困难。然而，这并不意味着苹果的收入增长将放缓至零。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> On the back of price increases for its products and the potential for market share gains in&nbsp;high-growth countries such as China, where more and more people will be able to buy Apple's higher-priced products, it seems reasonable to assume that Apple will generate at least some growth from its core businesses. Add in growth in the services segment - people use their phones more and more, which should lead to higher app spending - and consider the potential for new product launches (although I assume none will be as massive as the iPhone), and Apple should be able to grow its business at a solid pace. I personally assume that a 5%-7% revenue growth rate could be a realistic estimate for the coming years, although some readers will of course have different opinions.</p><p><blockquote>在其产品价格上涨以及中国等高增长国家市场份额增长的潜力（越来越多的人将能够购买苹果价格较高的产品）的背景下，似乎有理由假设苹果将至少从其核心业务中产生一些增长。再加上服务领域的增长——人们越来越多地使用手机，这应该会导致更高的应用支出——并考虑新产品发布的潜力（尽管我认为没有一款产品会像iPhone那样庞大），苹果应该能够以稳健的速度发展其业务。我个人认为5%-7%的收入增长率可能是未来几年的现实估计，尽管一些读者当然会有不同的意见。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's shareholder returns</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的股东回报</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple has lowered its share count massively in the past, as shown above, and it is, I believe, reasonable to assume that the same will happen going forward. Over the last decade, Apple bought back 36% of its shares. If the same were to happen over the next decade, each remaining share's portion of the company's value would rise by 56%, or 4.6% annualized. Due to the fact that Apple's current valuation is significantly higher than its historic valuation, buybacks could be less impactful in the future, though. Apple has, for example, only reduced its share count by 2.6% over the last year.</p><p><blockquote>如上所示，苹果过去曾大幅减少其股票数量，我相信，有理由假设未来也会发生同样的情况。过去十年，苹果回购了36%的股份。如果未来十年发生同样的情况，每股剩余股票在公司价值中的份额将上涨56%，即年化4.6%。不过，由于苹果目前的估值明显高于其历史估值，回购在未来的影响可能会较小。例如，苹果去年的股票数量仅减少了2.6%。</blockquote></p><p> This is why I believe that the share count will not decline by another 36% over the coming decade. When we adjust that downward to 25%, this would result in a ~3% annual tailwind for Apple's growth when we look at per-share metrics, which are the deciding factor for Apple's share price growth. Combined with my 5%-7% business growth estimate, I thus assume that Apple will grow by 8%-10% on a per-share basis in the long term.</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么我相信未来十年股票数量不会再下降36%。当我们将其向下调整至25%时，当我们考虑每股指标时，这将为苹果的增长带来约3%的年度推动力，而每股指标是苹果股价增长的决定性因素。结合我5%-7%的业务增长预测，我因此假设苹果的每股长期增长将达到8%-10%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's future valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的未来估值</b></blockquote></p><p> AAPL has been valued in a very wide range in the past, seeing its shares trade for very low multiples at some points, whereas investors were willing to pay significantly more at other times:</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司过去的估值范围很广，其股票在某些时候的市盈率非常低，而投资者在其他时候愿意支付更高的价格：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be5cb8bbc04ff0e0a13ee64f6f2bd90a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"470\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares could, five years ago, be bought for a very low 10x net earnings, which naturally was a great time to enter or expand positions. In late 2020, however, shares were trading for as much as 40x the company's net earnings, which seems like a quite high valuation. Right now, AAPL trades at 28x trailing earnings, and at around 24x forward profits. In the above chart, we also see the median earnings multiples over the last 3, 5, 7, and 10 years. It is pretty clear that Apple's valuation has expanded over the years, which is why the median values are higher for the shorter \"lookback\" periods. I do not believe that AAPL will trade at the 15.5x net earnings that it has traded at, on average, over the last decade, as this seems like a rather low valuation for a quality company like Apple with a strong brand, massive scale, great margins, and a fortress balance sheet. On the other hand, I also don't believe that Apple will trade at a 24-28x earnings multiple forever - for a company that generates solid but unspectacular business growth in the mid-single-digits, that seems quite expensive. This is especially true when we consider that interest rates will likely be higher a decade from now, which should pressure valuations for all equities, all else equal. I thus believe that a valuation of around 20x net earnings could be a reasonable estimate for 2031, which would be more or less in line with the 3-year median earnings multiple.</p><p><blockquote>五年前，可以以非常低的10倍净利润购买股票，这自然是进入或扩大头寸的好时机。然而，2020年底，该公司的股价高达该公司净利润的40倍，这似乎是一个相当高的估值。目前，AAPL的往绩市盈率为28倍，远期利润约为24倍。在上图中，我们还看到了过去3年、5年、7年和10年的市盈率中位数。很明显，苹果的估值多年来一直在扩大，这就是为什么在较短的“回顾”期内中值较高。我不认为AAPL的市盈率会达到过去十年平均市盈率的15.5倍，因为对于像苹果这样拥有强大品牌、庞大规模的优质公司来说，这似乎是一个相当低的估值。、巨大的利润和堡垒般的资产负债表。另一方面，我也不相信苹果的市盈率会永远保持在24-28倍——对于一家业务增长稳健但不引人注目的中个位数的公司来说，这似乎相当昂贵。当我们考虑到十年后利率可能会更高时，尤其如此，在其他条件相同的情况下，这应该会给所有股票的估值带来压力。因此，我认为2031年净利润20倍左右的估值可能是合理的估计，这或多或少与3年市盈率中位数一致。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is AAPL A Buy Or Sell Now</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AAPL现在是买入还是卖出</b></blockquote></p><p> Starting our calculation with an EPS estimate of $5.15 for 2021 and assuming that this will grow by 7%-10% a year through 2031, we reach an EPS range of $10.10 to $13.40. Putting a 20x earnings multiple on that leads to a target price of around $200-$270/share. At the midpoint of around $235, shares would thus see gains of around 90% from the current level, or around 6.5% annualized. That surely is not a bad return, and when we add in the dividend, we would get to an annualized return of roughly 7%. This is, on the other hand, also not an outrageously great return, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>从2021年每股收益估计为5.15美元开始计算，并假设到2031年每年增长7%-10%，我们的每股收益范围为10.10美元至13.40美元。将市盈率定为20倍，目标价约为每股200-270美元。因此，在235美元左右的中点，股价将较当前水平上涨约90%，年化涨幅约为6.5%。这肯定是一个不错的回报，当我们加上股息时，我们将获得大约7%的年化回报率。另一方面，我相信这也不是一个惊人的回报。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> AAPL has, I believe, significant upside potential over the next decade, but that should not be a large surprise - many companies will see significant growth over a time span this long. I personally am not too excited about a 7% expected long-term return. When we consider that shares do have considerable downside risk in the next 1-3 years if Apple's valuation declines, e.g. due to rising interest rates, it may be a better choice to stay on the sidelines for now. Long-term investors will likely not do badly when they buy shares at current levels, but they will likely also not do great. For now, I'd rate Apple a hold, and a potential buy if its valuation comes closer to the longer-term average. Those that are more optimistic about new product launches may disagree and favor buying here, but it could turn out that waiting for a better opportunity is the best choice here.</p><p><blockquote>我相信，苹果公司在未来十年具有巨大的上涨潜力，但这并不令人意外——许多公司将在这么长的时间内实现显着增长。我个人对7%的预期长期回报率不太兴奋。当我们考虑到，如果苹果的估值下降，例如由于利率上升，股价在未来1-3年内确实存在相当大的下行风险，目前保持观望可能是更好的选择。长期投资者在当前水平购买股票时可能不会表现不佳，但也可能不会表现出色。目前，我对苹果的评级为持有，如果其估值接近长期平均水平，则可能买入。那些对新产品发布更乐观的人可能不同意并倾向于在这里购买，但事实证明，等待更好的机会是这里的最佳选择。</blockquote></p><p> Summing it up, I'd say shares do have significant upside potential over the next decade, but the upside potential is not large enough to make me buy shares at current, elevated, valuations.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，我想说，该股在未来十年确实有巨大的上涨潜力，但上涨潜力还不足以让我以当前较高的估值购买股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432703-apple-stock-in-10-years\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432703-apple-stock-in-10-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122373606","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite different.\nApple has seen its growth slow down over the last decade, and it will likely not be a growth monster in the coming years, either.\nShares have ample long-term upside, but investors should consider the current valuation before jumping to decisions.\n\nPhoto by Paopano/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nApple (AAPL) has been one of the best investments one could have made over the last decade. Over the next decade, its growth may not be the same, however. Yet, thanks to massive shareholder return programs and a move towards services, Apple's stock will likely still be significantly higher a decade from now - even though the current valuation is rather high.\nApple Stock Price\nOver the last decade, Apple Inc. has been a great investment:\nData by YCharts\nShares have returned 900% in those ten years, before dividends, for a compounded annual return of approximately 26%, easily trouncing the returns of the broad market during that time frame. Importantly, shares have risen a lot more than the company's market capitalization, which grew by only 550% over the last decade. The difference can be explained by the company's large share repurchase programs, which have lowered the share count drastically over the last decade. The last decade, of course, was a highly successful period for Apple on a business basis, as the company benefited from the rise of smartphones while also having success with new products such as its Watch and tablets, which Apple more or less introduced as a new product category. Right now, shares trade for $125, up 57% over the last twelve months, but down 6% in 2021 to date. Following strong gains during 2020, shares seem to be in a consolidation pattern for now, which is not too much of a surprise, as Apple's valuation had expanded a lot in the recent past, and it seems that the company's business growth has to catch up to the recent share price increases now. The current consensus price target is $156, which implies an upside potential of 25%. Since there are no signs of shares leaving their current trading range right now, I personally do not think that Apple will breach $150 in the near term.\nWhere Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years\nApple's stock price in 2031 is, of course, nothing that can be forecasted with any precision. As history has shown, again and again, it is not even possible to forecast share prices precisely over a much shorter period of time. It is, however, possible to craft scenarios to see where share prices could be in the future under certain conditions, to get a feel for what might be a reasonable expectation for the future.\nTo craft one such scenario, we have to consider Apple's business growth, Apple's shareholder return program, and the valuation multiple that shares might trade at in the future.\nApple's business growth\nApple Inc. has seen years of stronger growth and years of weaker growth in the past. This mostly can be explained by factors such as new product introductions, e.g. Watch or iPad, and by the strength of the respective current iPhone models, which see varying demand depending on the year. Other factors, such as economic growth or trade issues, play a role as well.\nData by YCharts\nOverall, revenues have grown by 154% over the last decade, but as we see in the above chart, revenue growth has been relatively uneven. During the early 2010s, Apple generated massive growth on the back of the iPhones \"road to victory\", whereas revenue growth declined to a much slower pace in the following years. There were even some years during which revenues declined on a year-over-year basis, such as 2016. The average annual revenue growth pace was 10% over the last decade, but when we factor in that this was lifted up by the very strong growth in 2011 and 2012, it may not be too reasonable to assume that Apple will grow by 10% a year in the future, too. Investors should also consider that maintaining a high growth rate becomes ever more difficult the larger a company gets. This does, however, not mean that Apple's revenue growth will slow down to zero.\nOn the back of price increases for its products and the potential for market share gains in high-growth countries such as China, where more and more people will be able to buy Apple's higher-priced products, it seems reasonable to assume that Apple will generate at least some growth from its core businesses. Add in growth in the services segment - people use their phones more and more, which should lead to higher app spending - and consider the potential for new product launches (although I assume none will be as massive as the iPhone), and Apple should be able to grow its business at a solid pace. I personally assume that a 5%-7% revenue growth rate could be a realistic estimate for the coming years, although some readers will of course have different opinions.\nApple's shareholder returns\nApple has lowered its share count massively in the past, as shown above, and it is, I believe, reasonable to assume that the same will happen going forward. Over the last decade, Apple bought back 36% of its shares. If the same were to happen over the next decade, each remaining share's portion of the company's value would rise by 56%, or 4.6% annualized. Due to the fact that Apple's current valuation is significantly higher than its historic valuation, buybacks could be less impactful in the future, though. Apple has, for example, only reduced its share count by 2.6% over the last year.\nThis is why I believe that the share count will not decline by another 36% over the coming decade. When we adjust that downward to 25%, this would result in a ~3% annual tailwind for Apple's growth when we look at per-share metrics, which are the deciding factor for Apple's share price growth. Combined with my 5%-7% business growth estimate, I thus assume that Apple will grow by 8%-10% on a per-share basis in the long term.\nApple's future valuation\nAAPL has been valued in a very wide range in the past, seeing its shares trade for very low multiples at some points, whereas investors were willing to pay significantly more at other times:\nData by YCharts\nShares could, five years ago, be bought for a very low 10x net earnings, which naturally was a great time to enter or expand positions. In late 2020, however, shares were trading for as much as 40x the company's net earnings, which seems like a quite high valuation. Right now, AAPL trades at 28x trailing earnings, and at around 24x forward profits. In the above chart, we also see the median earnings multiples over the last 3, 5, 7, and 10 years. It is pretty clear that Apple's valuation has expanded over the years, which is why the median values are higher for the shorter \"lookback\" periods. I do not believe that AAPL will trade at the 15.5x net earnings that it has traded at, on average, over the last decade, as this seems like a rather low valuation for a quality company like Apple with a strong brand, massive scale, great margins, and a fortress balance sheet. On the other hand, I also don't believe that Apple will trade at a 24-28x earnings multiple forever - for a company that generates solid but unspectacular business growth in the mid-single-digits, that seems quite expensive. This is especially true when we consider that interest rates will likely be higher a decade from now, which should pressure valuations for all equities, all else equal. I thus believe that a valuation of around 20x net earnings could be a reasonable estimate for 2031, which would be more or less in line with the 3-year median earnings multiple.\nIs AAPL A Buy Or Sell Now\nStarting our calculation with an EPS estimate of $5.15 for 2021 and assuming that this will grow by 7%-10% a year through 2031, we reach an EPS range of $10.10 to $13.40. Putting a 20x earnings multiple on that leads to a target price of around $200-$270/share. At the midpoint of around $235, shares would thus see gains of around 90% from the current level, or around 6.5% annualized. That surely is not a bad return, and when we add in the dividend, we would get to an annualized return of roughly 7%. This is, on the other hand, also not an outrageously great return, I believe.\nAAPL has, I believe, significant upside potential over the next decade, but that should not be a large surprise - many companies will see significant growth over a time span this long. I personally am not too excited about a 7% expected long-term return. When we consider that shares do have considerable downside risk in the next 1-3 years if Apple's valuation declines, e.g. due to rising interest rates, it may be a better choice to stay on the sidelines for now. Long-term investors will likely not do badly when they buy shares at current levels, but they will likely also not do great. For now, I'd rate Apple a hold, and a potential buy if its valuation comes closer to the longer-term average. Those that are more optimistic about new product launches may disagree and favor buying here, but it could turn out that waiting for a better opportunity is the best choice here.\nSumming it up, I'd say shares do have significant upside potential over the next decade, but the upside potential is not large enough to make me buy shares at current, elevated, valuations.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":761,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":145958035,"gmtCreate":1626187217027,"gmtModify":1633929236713,"author":{"id":"3581982942860939","authorId":"3581982942860939","name":"SimS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581982942860939","authorIdStr":"3581982942860939"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"It’s raining meatballs!","listText":"It’s raining meatballs!","text":"It’s raining meatballs!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/145958035","repostId":"2151561465","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3132,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":142625229,"gmtCreate":1626147701161,"gmtModify":1633929640155,"author":{"id":"3581982942860939","authorId":"3581982942860939","name":"SimS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581982942860939","authorIdStr":"3581982942860939"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"So much faith in Tesla","listText":"So much faith in Tesla","text":"So much faith in Tesla","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/142625229","repostId":"1126477651","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1126477651","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626143204,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1126477651?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-13 10:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"ARK Invest Stocks To Buy And Watch: 6 Stocks That Cathie Wood's ARK ETFs Own; Tesla Surges<blockquote>ARK Invest值得购买和关注的股票：Cathie Wood的ARK ETF拥有的6只股票；特斯拉激增</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126477651","media":"investors","summary":"Cathie Wood's ARK Invest ETFs are some of the hottest funds after 2020's huge stock market gains. Si","content":"<p>Cathie Wood's ARK Invest ETFs are some of the hottest funds after 2020's huge stock market gains. Six ARK Invest stocks to buy and watch are Coinbase, DraftKings, Square, Teladoc Health, Tesla and Zoom Video.</p><p><blockquote>Cathie Wood的ARK Invest ETF是2020年股市大幅上涨后最热门的基金之一。值得购买和关注的六只ARK Invest股票是Coinbase、DraftKings、Square、Teladoc Health、特斯拉和Zoom Video。</blockquote></p><p> <b>ARK ETFs</b></p><p><blockquote><b>方舟ETF</b></blockquote></p><p> The ARK Invest investment company's flagship fund is ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK). The ARKK ETF focuses on companies that exhibit \"disruptive innovation,\" a technologically enabled new product or service that potentially changes the way the world works.</p><p><blockquote>ARK Invest投资公司的旗舰基金是ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)。ARKK ETF专注于表现出“颠覆性创新”的公司，这是一种技术支持的新产品或服务，可能会改变世界的运作方式。</blockquote></p><p> The ARK Innovation ETF surged more than 152% in 2020, handily beating the Nasdaq's hefty 43.6% return.</p><p><blockquote>ARK Innovation ETF在2020年飙升超过152%，轻松击败了纳斯达克43.6%的高回报率。</blockquote></p><p> Other ARK ETFs include Autonomous Technology &amp; Robotics (ARKQ), Next Generation Internet (ARKW), Genomic Revolution (ARKG), Fintech Innovation (ARKF) and the recently debuted Space Exploration and Innovation (ARKX).</p><p><blockquote>其他ARK ETF包括自主技术与机器人(ARKQ)、下一代互联网(ARKW)、基因组革命(ARKG)、金融科技创新(ARKF)以及最近推出的太空探索与创新(ARKX)。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How To Invest Like Cathie Wood: Focus On Game Changers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>如何像凯西·伍德一样投资：关注游戏规则改变者</b></blockquote></p><p> The ARKK fund's huge gain in 2020 resulted from big stock success stories in cutting-edge tech areas: DNA sequencing, robotics, artificial intelligence, energy storage and blockchain technology.</p><p><blockquote>ARKK基金在2020年的巨大收益得益于前沿科技领域的巨大股票成功故事：DNA测序、机器人、人工智能、能源存储和区块链技术。</blockquote></p><p> \"Disruptive innovation is often not priced correctly by traditional investment strategies because people may not understand how big the ultimate opportunities are going to be. They aren't sizing the opportunity and they aren't analyzing the disruption,\" Wood, the founder and CEO of ARK Invest, commented on the company's website.</p><p><blockquote>“颠覆性创新往往无法通过传统投资策略正确定价，因为人们可能不了解最终的机会有多大。他们没有评估机会的规模，也没有分析颠覆性，”创始人伍德说。方舟投资首席执行官在公司网站上评论道。</blockquote></p><p> <b>ARK Invest Stocks To Buy And Watch</b></p><p><blockquote><b>ARK Invest值得购买和关注的股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Amid the current stock market uptrend — according to IBD's market outlook — investors should focus on buying top stocks breaking out past correct buy points.</p><p><blockquote>根据IBD的市场展望，在当前股市上涨趋势中，投资者应重点购买突破正确买入点的顶级股票。</blockquote></p><p> ARK Invest stocks to buy and watch, and their tickers, include Coinbase Global (COIN), DraftKings (DKNG), Square (SQ), Tesla (TSLA), Teladoc Health (TDOC) and Zoom Video (ZM).</p><p><blockquote>ARK Invest值得购买和关注的股票及其股票代码包括Coinbase Global(COIN)、DraftKings(DKNG)、Square(SQ)、特斯拉(TSLA)、Teladoc Health(TDOC)和Zoom Video(ZM)。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2efd07a268f9aa66a2a2690cf2ee3ba\" tg-width=\"440\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Coinbase IPO</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Coinbase IPO</b></blockquote></p><p> Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase debuted on April 14, pricing at $250 a share. Coinbase stock closed its first day of trading 328.28, up 31.3%, for a valuation of $87.3 billion. Investors should wait for an IPO base to form before jumping into the hot IPO stock.</p><p><blockquote>加密货币交易所Coinbase于4月14日首次亮相，定价为每股250美元。Coinbase股票首日收盘价为328.28点，上涨31.3%，估值为873亿美元。投资者应等待IPO基础形成后再买入热门IPO股票。</blockquote></p><p> The new stake in Coinbase represents another one of the Ark Invest stocks that offers more exposure to cryptocurrencies.</p><p><blockquote>Coinbase的新股份代表了Ark Invest的另一只股票，提供了更多的加密货币敞口。</blockquote></p><p> Coinbase fell 2.45% Monday.</p><p><blockquote>Coinbase周一下跌2.45%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>DraftKings Stock</b></p><p><blockquote><b>DraftKings股票</b></blockquote></p><p> DraftKings is an online sports platform that allows users to play daily fantasy games and win cash prizes. The company is poised to take advantage of the expanding legalization of digital sports betting across the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>DraftKings是一个在线体育平台，允许用户玩日常幻想游戏并赢得现金奖励。该公司准备利用美国数字体育博彩合法化的扩大。</blockquote></p><p> DraftKings stock is above its 50-day moving average, but back above the long-term 200-day line. It could form a base once the stock can recover from its downtrend. There is no buy point at this time. Shares are about 31% off their 52-week high.</p><p><blockquote>DraftKings股价高于50日移动均线，但又回到长期200日线上方。一旦该股能够从下跌趋势中恢复过来，它可能会形成一个基础。目前没有买点。股价较52周高点下跌约31%。</blockquote></p><p> The sports-betting leader is one of the newest ARK Invest stocks. On March 8, ARK Invest disclosed a new position of 748,000 shares for the ARKK ETF.</p><p><blockquote>这家体育博彩领导者是最新的ARK Invest股票之一。3月8日，ARK Invest披露了ARKK ETF的新持仓74.8万股。</blockquote></p><p> DKNG stock rose 0.1% Monday.</p><p><blockquote>DKNG股价周一上涨0.1%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Zoom Video Stock</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Zoom Video股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Zoom Video is the leader in modern enterprise video communications, with a cloud platform for video and audio conferencing, chat, and webinars across mobile, desktop, and room systems.</p><p><blockquote>Zoom Video是现代企业视频通信领域的领导者，拥有跨移动、桌面和房间系统的视频和音频会议、聊天和网络研讨会的云平台。</blockquote></p><p> On June 1, Zoom reported adjusted EPS of $1.32 on sales of $956.2 million, beating estimates. Earnings soared 560%, while sales rocketed 191% vs. the year-ago period.</p><p><blockquote>6月1日，Zoom公布调整后每股收益为1.32美元，销售额为9.562亿美元，超出预期。与去年同期相比，盈利飙升560%，销售额飙升191%。</blockquote></p><p> Shares lost 1.55% Monday.</p><p><blockquote>周一股价下跌1.55%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>This Cathie Wood Stock Pick Nears A New Buy Point</b></p><p><blockquote><b>凯西·伍德(Cathie Wood)精选股票接近新的买入点</b></blockquote></p><p> Square is a digital payments and cryptocurrency leader. Recently, Square disclosed a new $170 million investment in Bitcoin on top of its $50 million purchase in October. Bitcoin represents 5% of total company assets.</p><p><blockquote>Square是数字支付和加密货币的领导者。最近，Square在10月份斥资5000万美元收购的基础上，又披露了对比特币的1.7亿美元新投资。比特币占公司总资产的5%。</blockquote></p><p> Square stock is forming a consolidation with a 283.29 buy point. Shares are about 12% away from the buy point. Despite soaring more than 700% from the coronavirus bear market lows, SQ stock's base is still early stage.</p><p><blockquote>Square股票正在形成盘整，买入点为283.29。股价距离买入点约12%。尽管从冠状病毒熊市低点飙升了700%以上，但SQ股票的基础仍处于早期阶段。</blockquote></p><p> According to IBD Stock Checkup, Square stock shows a 97 out of a perfect 99 IBD Composite Rating. The IBD Composite Rating helps investors easily measure the quality of a stock's fundamental and technical metrics.</p><p><blockquote>根据IBD股票检查，Square股票的IBD综合评级为97分（满分99分）。IBD综合评级可帮助投资者轻松衡量股票基本面和技术指标的质量。</blockquote></p><p> Square stock was up 0.6% Monday.</p><p><blockquote>Square股价周一上涨0.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why Tesla Is One Of The Top ARK Invest Stocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么特斯拉是ARK Invest顶级股票之一</b></blockquote></p><p> Tesla stock is one of the top ARK Invest stocks, with whopping 10% weighting in the ARKK ETF portfolio. In mid-January, ARK Invest unveiled its 2025 price target on Tesla stock of $3,000 a share.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股票是ARK Invest的顶级股票之一，在ARKK ETF投资组合中的权重高达10%。1月中旬，ARK Invest公布了特斯拉股票2025年目标价为每股3,000美元。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla stock surged 4.35% Monday. The EV giant is finding support around its key 50- and 200-day moving averages. A strong show of support at these levels would be bullish for the stock's prospects.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价周一飙升4.35%。这家电动汽车巨头正在其关键的50日和200日移动平均线附近寻找支撑。在这些水平上表现出强劲的支撑将利好该股的前景。</blockquote></p><p> A new base could be forming, but the stock is far away from any new buy point. Shares reclaimed their 50-day line in recent weeks.</p><p><blockquote>一个新的基础可能正在形成，但该股距离任何新的买入点还很远。最近几周，股价收复了50日线。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Teladoc Health Stock</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Teladoc健康股票</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Teladoc Health provides on-demand health care services, such as nonemergency doctor's appointments, online. More doctors and patients are opting for telemedicine due to Covid-19. Teladoc is one of the biggest ARK Invest stocks, with an over-6% portfolio weighting in the ARKK portfolio.</p><p><blockquote>Teladoc Health在线提供按需医疗保健服务，例如非紧急医生预约。由于新冠肺炎，越来越多的医生和患者选择远程医疗。Teladoc是ARK Invest最大的股票之一，在ARKK投资组合中的权重超过6%。</blockquote></p><p> TDOC stock is trading nearly 50% off its 52-week high. Shares traded down 1.65% Monday.</p><p><blockquote>TDOC股价较52周高点下跌近50%。周一股价下跌1.65%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610449120050","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>ARK Invest Stocks To Buy And Watch: 6 Stocks That Cathie Wood's ARK ETFs Own; Tesla Surges<blockquote>ARK Invest值得购买和关注的股票：Cathie Wood的ARK ETF拥有的6只股票；特斯拉激增</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nARK Invest Stocks To Buy And Watch: 6 Stocks That Cathie Wood's ARK ETFs Own; Tesla Surges<blockquote>ARK Invest值得购买和关注的股票：Cathie Wood的ARK ETF拥有的6只股票；特斯拉激增</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">investors</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-13 10:26</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Cathie Wood's ARK Invest ETFs are some of the hottest funds after 2020's huge stock market gains. Six ARK Invest stocks to buy and watch are Coinbase, DraftKings, Square, Teladoc Health, Tesla and Zoom Video.</p><p><blockquote>Cathie Wood的ARK Invest ETF是2020年股市大幅上涨后最热门的基金之一。值得购买和关注的六只ARK Invest股票是Coinbase、DraftKings、Square、Teladoc Health、特斯拉和Zoom Video。</blockquote></p><p> <b>ARK ETFs</b></p><p><blockquote><b>方舟ETF</b></blockquote></p><p> The ARK Invest investment company's flagship fund is ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK). The ARKK ETF focuses on companies that exhibit \"disruptive innovation,\" a technologically enabled new product or service that potentially changes the way the world works.</p><p><blockquote>ARK Invest投资公司的旗舰基金是ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)。ARKK ETF专注于表现出“颠覆性创新”的公司，这是一种技术支持的新产品或服务，可能会改变世界的运作方式。</blockquote></p><p> The ARK Innovation ETF surged more than 152% in 2020, handily beating the Nasdaq's hefty 43.6% return.</p><p><blockquote>ARK Innovation ETF在2020年飙升超过152%，轻松击败了纳斯达克43.6%的高回报率。</blockquote></p><p> Other ARK ETFs include Autonomous Technology &amp; Robotics (ARKQ), Next Generation Internet (ARKW), Genomic Revolution (ARKG), Fintech Innovation (ARKF) and the recently debuted Space Exploration and Innovation (ARKX).</p><p><blockquote>其他ARK ETF包括自主技术与机器人(ARKQ)、下一代互联网(ARKW)、基因组革命(ARKG)、金融科技创新(ARKF)以及最近推出的太空探索与创新(ARKX)。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How To Invest Like Cathie Wood: Focus On Game Changers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>如何像凯西·伍德一样投资：关注游戏规则改变者</b></blockquote></p><p> The ARKK fund's huge gain in 2020 resulted from big stock success stories in cutting-edge tech areas: DNA sequencing, robotics, artificial intelligence, energy storage and blockchain technology.</p><p><blockquote>ARKK基金在2020年的巨大收益得益于前沿科技领域的巨大股票成功故事：DNA测序、机器人、人工智能、能源存储和区块链技术。</blockquote></p><p> \"Disruptive innovation is often not priced correctly by traditional investment strategies because people may not understand how big the ultimate opportunities are going to be. They aren't sizing the opportunity and they aren't analyzing the disruption,\" Wood, the founder and CEO of ARK Invest, commented on the company's website.</p><p><blockquote>“颠覆性创新往往无法通过传统投资策略正确定价，因为人们可能不了解最终的机会有多大。他们没有评估机会的规模，也没有分析颠覆性，”创始人伍德说。方舟投资首席执行官在公司网站上评论道。</blockquote></p><p> <b>ARK Invest Stocks To Buy And Watch</b></p><p><blockquote><b>ARK Invest值得购买和关注的股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Amid the current stock market uptrend — according to IBD's market outlook — investors should focus on buying top stocks breaking out past correct buy points.</p><p><blockquote>根据IBD的市场展望，在当前股市上涨趋势中，投资者应重点购买突破正确买入点的顶级股票。</blockquote></p><p> ARK Invest stocks to buy and watch, and their tickers, include Coinbase Global (COIN), DraftKings (DKNG), Square (SQ), Tesla (TSLA), Teladoc Health (TDOC) and Zoom Video (ZM).</p><p><blockquote>ARK Invest值得购买和关注的股票及其股票代码包括Coinbase Global(COIN)、DraftKings(DKNG)、Square(SQ)、特斯拉(TSLA)、Teladoc Health(TDOC)和Zoom Video(ZM)。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2efd07a268f9aa66a2a2690cf2ee3ba\" tg-width=\"440\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Coinbase IPO</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Coinbase IPO</b></blockquote></p><p> Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase debuted on April 14, pricing at $250 a share. Coinbase stock closed its first day of trading 328.28, up 31.3%, for a valuation of $87.3 billion. Investors should wait for an IPO base to form before jumping into the hot IPO stock.</p><p><blockquote>加密货币交易所Coinbase于4月14日首次亮相，定价为每股250美元。Coinbase股票首日收盘价为328.28点，上涨31.3%，估值为873亿美元。投资者应等待IPO基础形成后再买入热门IPO股票。</blockquote></p><p> The new stake in Coinbase represents another one of the Ark Invest stocks that offers more exposure to cryptocurrencies.</p><p><blockquote>Coinbase的新股份代表了Ark Invest的另一只股票，提供了更多的加密货币敞口。</blockquote></p><p> Coinbase fell 2.45% Monday.</p><p><blockquote>Coinbase周一下跌2.45%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>DraftKings Stock</b></p><p><blockquote><b>DraftKings股票</b></blockquote></p><p> DraftKings is an online sports platform that allows users to play daily fantasy games and win cash prizes. The company is poised to take advantage of the expanding legalization of digital sports betting across the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>DraftKings是一个在线体育平台，允许用户玩日常幻想游戏并赢得现金奖励。该公司准备利用美国数字体育博彩合法化的扩大。</blockquote></p><p> DraftKings stock is above its 50-day moving average, but back above the long-term 200-day line. It could form a base once the stock can recover from its downtrend. There is no buy point at this time. Shares are about 31% off their 52-week high.</p><p><blockquote>DraftKings股价高于50日移动均线，但又回到长期200日线上方。一旦该股能够从下跌趋势中恢复过来，它可能会形成一个基础。目前没有买点。股价较52周高点下跌约31%。</blockquote></p><p> The sports-betting leader is one of the newest ARK Invest stocks. On March 8, ARK Invest disclosed a new position of 748,000 shares for the ARKK ETF.</p><p><blockquote>这家体育博彩领导者是最新的ARK Invest股票之一。3月8日，ARK Invest披露了ARKK ETF的新持仓74.8万股。</blockquote></p><p> DKNG stock rose 0.1% Monday.</p><p><blockquote>DKNG股价周一上涨0.1%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Zoom Video Stock</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Zoom Video股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Zoom Video is the leader in modern enterprise video communications, with a cloud platform for video and audio conferencing, chat, and webinars across mobile, desktop, and room systems.</p><p><blockquote>Zoom Video是现代企业视频通信领域的领导者，拥有跨移动、桌面和房间系统的视频和音频会议、聊天和网络研讨会的云平台。</blockquote></p><p> On June 1, Zoom reported adjusted EPS of $1.32 on sales of $956.2 million, beating estimates. Earnings soared 560%, while sales rocketed 191% vs. the year-ago period.</p><p><blockquote>6月1日，Zoom公布调整后每股收益为1.32美元，销售额为9.562亿美元，超出预期。与去年同期相比，盈利飙升560%，销售额飙升191%。</blockquote></p><p> Shares lost 1.55% Monday.</p><p><blockquote>周一股价下跌1.55%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>This Cathie Wood Stock Pick Nears A New Buy Point</b></p><p><blockquote><b>凯西·伍德(Cathie Wood)精选股票接近新的买入点</b></blockquote></p><p> Square is a digital payments and cryptocurrency leader. Recently, Square disclosed a new $170 million investment in Bitcoin on top of its $50 million purchase in October. Bitcoin represents 5% of total company assets.</p><p><blockquote>Square是数字支付和加密货币的领导者。最近，Square在10月份斥资5000万美元收购的基础上，又披露了对比特币的1.7亿美元新投资。比特币占公司总资产的5%。</blockquote></p><p> Square stock is forming a consolidation with a 283.29 buy point. Shares are about 12% away from the buy point. Despite soaring more than 700% from the coronavirus bear market lows, SQ stock's base is still early stage.</p><p><blockquote>Square股票正在形成盘整，买入点为283.29。股价距离买入点约12%。尽管从冠状病毒熊市低点飙升了700%以上，但SQ股票的基础仍处于早期阶段。</blockquote></p><p> According to IBD Stock Checkup, Square stock shows a 97 out of a perfect 99 IBD Composite Rating. The IBD Composite Rating helps investors easily measure the quality of a stock's fundamental and technical metrics.</p><p><blockquote>根据IBD股票检查，Square股票的IBD综合评级为97分（满分99分）。IBD综合评级可帮助投资者轻松衡量股票基本面和技术指标的质量。</blockquote></p><p> Square stock was up 0.6% Monday.</p><p><blockquote>Square股价周一上涨0.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why Tesla Is One Of The Top ARK Invest Stocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么特斯拉是ARK Invest顶级股票之一</b></blockquote></p><p> Tesla stock is one of the top ARK Invest stocks, with whopping 10% weighting in the ARKK ETF portfolio. In mid-January, ARK Invest unveiled its 2025 price target on Tesla stock of $3,000 a share.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股票是ARK Invest的顶级股票之一，在ARKK ETF投资组合中的权重高达10%。1月中旬，ARK Invest公布了特斯拉股票2025年目标价为每股3,000美元。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla stock surged 4.35% Monday. The EV giant is finding support around its key 50- and 200-day moving averages. A strong show of support at these levels would be bullish for the stock's prospects.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价周一飙升4.35%。这家电动汽车巨头正在其关键的50日和200日移动平均线附近寻找支撑。在这些水平上表现出强劲的支撑将利好该股的前景。</blockquote></p><p> A new base could be forming, but the stock is far away from any new buy point. Shares reclaimed their 50-day line in recent weeks.</p><p><blockquote>一个新的基础可能正在形成，但该股距离任何新的买入点还很远。最近几周，股价收复了50日线。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Teladoc Health Stock</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Teladoc健康股票</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Teladoc Health provides on-demand health care services, such as nonemergency doctor's appointments, online. More doctors and patients are opting for telemedicine due to Covid-19. Teladoc is one of the biggest ARK Invest stocks, with an over-6% portfolio weighting in the ARKK portfolio.</p><p><blockquote>Teladoc Health在线提供按需医疗保健服务，例如非紧急医生预约。由于新冠肺炎，越来越多的医生和患者选择远程医疗。Teladoc是ARK Invest最大的股票之一，在ARKK投资组合中的权重超过6%。</blockquote></p><p> TDOC stock is trading nearly 50% off its 52-week high. Shares traded down 1.65% Monday.</p><p><blockquote>TDOC股价较52周高点下跌近50%。周一股价下跌1.65%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.investors.com/research/ark-invest-stocks/?src=A00220\">investors</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ARKF":"ARK Fintech Innovation ETF","ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF","ARKW":"ARK Next Generation Internet ETF","ARKG":"ARK Genomic Revolution ETF","ARKX":"ARK Space Exploration & Innovation ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.investors.com/research/ark-invest-stocks/?src=A00220","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126477651","content_text":"Cathie Wood's ARK Invest ETFs are some of the hottest funds after 2020's huge stock market gains. Six ARK Invest stocks to buy and watch are Coinbase, DraftKings, Square, Teladoc Health, Tesla and Zoom Video.\nARK ETFs\nThe ARK Invest investment company's flagship fund is ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK). The ARKK ETF focuses on companies that exhibit \"disruptive innovation,\" a technologically enabled new product or service that potentially changes the way the world works.\nThe ARK Innovation ETF surged more than 152% in 2020, handily beating the Nasdaq's hefty 43.6% return.\nOther ARK ETFs include Autonomous Technology & Robotics (ARKQ), Next Generation Internet (ARKW), Genomic Revolution (ARKG), Fintech Innovation (ARKF) and the recently debuted Space Exploration and Innovation (ARKX).\nHow To Invest Like Cathie Wood: Focus On Game Changers\nThe ARKK fund's huge gain in 2020 resulted from big stock success stories in cutting-edge tech areas: DNA sequencing, robotics, artificial intelligence, energy storage and blockchain technology.\n\"Disruptive innovation is often not priced correctly by traditional investment strategies because people may not understand how big the ultimate opportunities are going to be. They aren't sizing the opportunity and they aren't analyzing the disruption,\" Wood, the founder and CEO of ARK Invest, commented on the company's website.\nARK Invest Stocks To Buy And Watch\nAmid the current stock market uptrend — according to IBD's market outlook — investors should focus on buying top stocks breaking out past correct buy points.\nARK Invest stocks to buy and watch, and their tickers, include Coinbase Global (COIN), DraftKings (DKNG), Square (SQ), Tesla (TSLA), Teladoc Health (TDOC) and Zoom Video (ZM).\n\nCoinbase IPO\nCryptocurrency exchange Coinbase debuted on April 14, pricing at $250 a share. Coinbase stock closed its first day of trading 328.28, up 31.3%, for a valuation of $87.3 billion. Investors should wait for an IPO base to form before jumping into the hot IPO stock.\nThe new stake in Coinbase represents another one of the Ark Invest stocks that offers more exposure to cryptocurrencies.\nCoinbase fell 2.45% Monday.\nDraftKings Stock\nDraftKings is an online sports platform that allows users to play daily fantasy games and win cash prizes. The company is poised to take advantage of the expanding legalization of digital sports betting across the U.S.\nDraftKings stock is above its 50-day moving average, but back above the long-term 200-day line. It could form a base once the stock can recover from its downtrend. There is no buy point at this time. Shares are about 31% off their 52-week high.\nThe sports-betting leader is one of the newest ARK Invest stocks. On March 8, ARK Invest disclosed a new position of 748,000 shares for the ARKK ETF.\nDKNG stock rose 0.1% Monday.\nZoom Video Stock\nZoom Video is the leader in modern enterprise video communications, with a cloud platform for video and audio conferencing, chat, and webinars across mobile, desktop, and room systems.\nOn June 1, Zoom reported adjusted EPS of $1.32 on sales of $956.2 million, beating estimates. Earnings soared 560%, while sales rocketed 191% vs. the year-ago period.\nShares lost 1.55% Monday.\nThis Cathie Wood Stock Pick Nears A New Buy Point\nSquare is a digital payments and cryptocurrency leader. Recently, Square disclosed a new $170 million investment in Bitcoin on top of its $50 million purchase in October. Bitcoin represents 5% of total company assets.\nSquare stock is forming a consolidation with a 283.29 buy point. Shares are about 12% away from the buy point. Despite soaring more than 700% from the coronavirus bear market lows, SQ stock's base is still early stage.\nAccording to IBD Stock Checkup, Square stock shows a 97 out of a perfect 99 IBD Composite Rating. The IBD Composite Rating helps investors easily measure the quality of a stock's fundamental and technical metrics.\nSquare stock was up 0.6% Monday.\nWhy Tesla Is One Of The Top ARK Invest Stocks\nTesla stock is one of the top ARK Invest stocks, with whopping 10% weighting in the ARKK ETF portfolio. In mid-January, ARK Invest unveiled its 2025 price target on Tesla stock of $3,000 a share.\nTesla stock surged 4.35% Monday. The EV giant is finding support around its key 50- and 200-day moving averages. A strong show of support at these levels would be bullish for the stock's prospects.\nA new base could be forming, but the stock is far away from any new buy point. Shares reclaimed their 50-day line in recent weeks.\nTeladoc Health Stock\nTeladoc Health provides on-demand health care services, such as nonemergency doctor's appointments, online. More doctors and patients are opting for telemedicine due to Covid-19. Teladoc is one of the biggest ARK Invest stocks, with an over-6% portfolio weighting in the ARKK portfolio.\nTDOC stock is trading nearly 50% off its 52-week high. Shares traded down 1.65% Monday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ARKF":0.9,"ARKW":0.9,"ARKG":0.9,"ARKK":0.9,"ARKX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2645,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153568606,"gmtCreate":1625035908305,"gmtModify":1633945580608,"author":{"id":"3581982942860939","authorId":"3581982942860939","name":"SimS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581982942860939","authorIdStr":"3581982942860939"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"What goes up, must come down 📈📉","listText":"What goes up, must come down 📈📉","text":"What goes up, must come down 📈📉","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/153568606","repostId":"1153724402","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1153724402","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625034985,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1153724402?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-30 14:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Investors Are Turning Bearish on S&P 500 Stocks<blockquote>投资者开始看跌标普500股市</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153724402","media":"Barrons","summary":"Many strategists haven’t expected big gains in the stock market for the rest of the year. Now invest","content":"<p>Many strategists haven’t expected big gains in the stock market for the rest of the year. Now investors are signaling weak confidence in stocks from here.</p><p><blockquote>许多策略师预计今年剩余时间股市不会出现大幅上涨。现在投资者从这里发出了对股票信心疲软的信号。</blockquote></p><p> Strategists do expect a weak market for the coming quarters. Their average price target on the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;is a touch above $4,150, according to&nbsp;Citigroup&nbsp;data. That’s a roughly 3% drop from the index’s current level. Even the more-bullish strategists aren’t exactly giving a vote of confidence to the market;Jefferies recently raised its price target on the index to $4,350, which represents a mere gain of about 1%.</p><p><blockquote>策略师确实预计未来几个季度市场将疲软。根据花旗集团的数据，他们对标准普尔500指数的平均目标价略高于4,150美元。这比该指数当前水平下降了约3%。即使是更乐观的策略师也没有对市场投下信任票；杰富瑞(Jefferies)最近将该指数的目标价上调至4,350美元，仅上涨约1%。</blockquote></p><p> But what’s more worrisome is that investors—the people who actually buy and sell shares, and move the market—are also now pessimistic on stocks. Citi’s survey of almost 70 institutional funds shows that on average money managers see the S&amp;P 500 price target falling to $4,269 by the end of this year. That’s a 0.6% drop from here. Just over a quarter of survey respondents said the top two risks are inflation, and a Federal Reserve policy mistake. Less than 10% of participants said the biggest risks lie elsewhere.</p><p><blockquote>但更令人担忧的是，投资者——实际买卖股票并推动市场的人——现在也对股票持悲观态度。花旗对近70家机构基金的调查显示，平均而言，基金经理预计标普500的目标价到今年年底将降至4,269美元。比这里下降了0.6%。超过四分之一的受访者表示，最大的两个风险是通货膨胀和美联储政策错误。不到10%的参与者表示，最大的风险在于其他地方。</blockquote></p><p> That finding is consistent with recent market behavior and commentary. If&nbsp;recent inflation&nbsp;is persistent enough, it&nbsp;could wipe off more than 15% from the S&amp;P 500, as higher inflation erodes the value of future profits. If the Fed, in response, hikes interest rates too quickly, it could dent growth—and recently the stocks that are most sensitive to the perceived health of the economy&nbsp;have underperformed.</p><p><blockquote>这一发现与最近的市场行为和评论一致。如果最近的通胀足够持续，它可能会从标普500中抹去15%以上，因为更高的通胀会侵蚀未来利润的价值。如果美联储过快加息，可能会削弱经济增长——而最近对经济健康状况最敏感的股票表现不佳。</blockquote></p><p> One point of optimism, though, is that the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500 hit several new highs this week, indicating that it still has more juice. To be sure,technical analysis shows the index could rise at least 3%&nbsp;from here—and maybe it can. Stocks could conceivably keep rising in the short-term.</p><p><blockquote>不过，乐观的一点是，标准普尔500指数本周创下了几个新高，表明它仍然有更多的动力。可以肯定的是，技术分析显示该指数可能会从这里上涨至少3%——也许确实如此。可以想象，股市在短期内可能会继续上涨。</blockquote></p><p> But investors are nervous about looming risks that could bring stocks down by year-end.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者对迫在眉睫的风险感到紧张，这些风险可能会在年底前导致股市下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Investors Are Turning Bearish on S&P 500 Stocks<blockquote>投资者开始看跌标普500股市</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvestors Are Turning Bearish on S&P 500 Stocks<blockquote>投资者开始看跌标普500股市</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-30 14:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Many strategists haven’t expected big gains in the stock market for the rest of the year. Now investors are signaling weak confidence in stocks from here.</p><p><blockquote>许多策略师预计今年剩余时间股市不会出现大幅上涨。现在投资者从这里发出了对股票信心疲软的信号。</blockquote></p><p> Strategists do expect a weak market for the coming quarters. Their average price target on the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;is a touch above $4,150, according to&nbsp;Citigroup&nbsp;data. That’s a roughly 3% drop from the index’s current level. Even the more-bullish strategists aren’t exactly giving a vote of confidence to the market;Jefferies recently raised its price target on the index to $4,350, which represents a mere gain of about 1%.</p><p><blockquote>策略师确实预计未来几个季度市场将疲软。根据花旗集团的数据，他们对标准普尔500指数的平均目标价略高于4,150美元。这比该指数当前水平下降了约3%。即使是更乐观的策略师也没有对市场投下信任票；杰富瑞(Jefferies)最近将该指数的目标价上调至4,350美元，仅上涨约1%。</blockquote></p><p> But what’s more worrisome is that investors—the people who actually buy and sell shares, and move the market—are also now pessimistic on stocks. Citi’s survey of almost 70 institutional funds shows that on average money managers see the S&amp;P 500 price target falling to $4,269 by the end of this year. That’s a 0.6% drop from here. Just over a quarter of survey respondents said the top two risks are inflation, and a Federal Reserve policy mistake. Less than 10% of participants said the biggest risks lie elsewhere.</p><p><blockquote>但更令人担忧的是，投资者——实际买卖股票并推动市场的人——现在也对股票持悲观态度。花旗对近70家机构基金的调查显示，平均而言，基金经理预计标普500的目标价到今年年底将降至4,269美元。比这里下降了0.6%。超过四分之一的受访者表示，最大的两个风险是通货膨胀和美联储政策错误。不到10%的参与者表示，最大的风险在于其他地方。</blockquote></p><p> That finding is consistent with recent market behavior and commentary. If&nbsp;recent inflation&nbsp;is persistent enough, it&nbsp;could wipe off more than 15% from the S&amp;P 500, as higher inflation erodes the value of future profits. If the Fed, in response, hikes interest rates too quickly, it could dent growth—and recently the stocks that are most sensitive to the perceived health of the economy&nbsp;have underperformed.</p><p><blockquote>这一发现与最近的市场行为和评论一致。如果最近的通胀足够持续，它可能会从标普500中抹去15%以上，因为更高的通胀会侵蚀未来利润的价值。如果美联储过快加息，可能会削弱经济增长——而最近对经济健康状况最敏感的股票表现不佳。</blockquote></p><p> One point of optimism, though, is that the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500 hit several new highs this week, indicating that it still has more juice. To be sure,technical analysis shows the index could rise at least 3%&nbsp;from here—and maybe it can. Stocks could conceivably keep rising in the short-term.</p><p><blockquote>不过，乐观的一点是，标准普尔500指数本周创下了几个新高，表明它仍然有更多的动力。可以肯定的是，技术分析显示该指数可能会从这里上涨至少3%——也许确实如此。可以想象，股市在短期内可能会继续上涨。</blockquote></p><p> But investors are nervous about looming risks that could bring stocks down by year-end.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者对迫在眉睫的风险感到紧张，这些风险可能会在年底前导致股市下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/investors-turning-bearish-on-s-p-500-stocks-51625002300?mod=hp_LEAD_3_B_1\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/investors-turning-bearish-on-s-p-500-stocks-51625002300?mod=hp_LEAD_3_B_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153724402","content_text":"Many strategists haven’t expected big gains in the stock market for the rest of the year. Now investors are signaling weak confidence in stocks from here.\nStrategists do expect a weak market for the coming quarters. Their average price target on the S&P 500 index is a touch above $4,150, according to Citigroup data. That’s a roughly 3% drop from the index’s current level. Even the more-bullish strategists aren’t exactly giving a vote of confidence to the market;Jefferies recently raised its price target on the index to $4,350, which represents a mere gain of about 1%.\nBut what’s more worrisome is that investors—the people who actually buy and sell shares, and move the market—are also now pessimistic on stocks. Citi’s survey of almost 70 institutional funds shows that on average money managers see the S&P 500 price target falling to $4,269 by the end of this year. That’s a 0.6% drop from here. Just over a quarter of survey respondents said the top two risks are inflation, and a Federal Reserve policy mistake. Less than 10% of participants said the biggest risks lie elsewhere.\nThat finding is consistent with recent market behavior and commentary. If recent inflation is persistent enough, it could wipe off more than 15% from the S&P 500, as higher inflation erodes the value of future profits. If the Fed, in response, hikes interest rates too quickly, it could dent growth—and recently the stocks that are most sensitive to the perceived health of the economy have underperformed.\nOne point of optimism, though, is that the S&P 500 hit several new highs this week, indicating that it still has more juice. To be sure,technical analysis shows the index could rise at least 3% from here—and maybe it can. Stocks could conceivably keep rising in the short-term.\nBut investors are nervous about looming risks that could bring stocks down by year-end.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3403,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125711491,"gmtCreate":1624693080013,"gmtModify":1633949491523,"author":{"id":"3581982942860939","authorId":"3581982942860939","name":"SimS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581982942860939","authorIdStr":"3581982942860939"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"“Musk tweeting, again” [LOL]&nbsp;","listText":"“Musk tweeting, again” [LOL]&nbsp;","text":"“Musk tweeting, again” [LOL]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/125711491","repostId":"1100072036","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2192,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181180175,"gmtCreate":1623378381897,"gmtModify":1634033989628,"author":{"id":"3581982942860939","authorId":"3581982942860939","name":"SimS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581982942860939","authorIdStr":"3581982942860939"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good news","listText":"Good news","text":"Good news","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181180175","repostId":"1193863762","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1193863762","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623334800,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1193863762?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-10 22:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Global Semiconductor annual sales projected to increase 19.7% in 2021, 8.8% in 2022<blockquote>全球半导体年销售额预计2021年增长19.7%，2022年增长8.8%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193863762","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"(June 10) Semiconductor stocks rose in morning trading.\nRelated: Semiconductor Watchlist: Jim Cramer","content":"<p>(June 10)&nbsp;Semiconductor&nbsp;stocks&nbsp;rose&nbsp;in&nbsp;morning&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>（6月10日）半导体股早盘走高。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1163875762\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Related:&nbsp;Semiconductor Watchlist: Jim Cramer Says to Own Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom</b></a><b></b></p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1163875762\" target=\"_blank\"><b>相关：半导体观察名单：吉姆·克莱默表示将拥有英伟达、AMD和博通</b></a><b></b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb703ee8165d2dc48c5550db47dfebc7\" tg-width=\"303\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> According to World Semiconductor Trade Statistics estimates, the global semiconductor market will rise from 6.8% in 2020 to 19.7% thisyear to ~$527B.</p><p><blockquote>根据世界半导体贸易统计估计，全球半导体市场将从2020年的6.8%上升到今年的19.7%，达到约527B美元。</blockquote></p><p> The most significant growth contributors are Memory with 31.7%, followed by Sensors with 22.4% and, Analog with 21.7%. All other major product categories are also expected to show double-digit growth rates, except Optoelectronics with 9.8% and MOS Micro with 8.1%.</p><p><blockquote>最重要的增长贡献者是内存，占31.7%，其次是传感器，占22.4%，模拟占21.7%。除光电9.8%和MOS微8.1%外，所有其他主要产品类别预计也将呈现两位数的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> In 2021, Asia Pacific (incl. China) is forecasted to show the most robust growth rate with 23.5%, followed by Europe with 21.1%, Japan 12.7%, and the Americas with 11.1%.</p><p><blockquote>2021年，亚太地区（包括中国）的增长率预计最强劲，为23.5%，其次是欧洲，为21.1%，日本为12.7%，美洲为11.1%。</blockquote></p><p> For 2022, the global semiconductor market is projected to grow by 8.8% to $573B, driven by double-digit growth of the Memory category. All regions are expected again to show favorable growth rates.</p><p><blockquote>2022年，在内存类别两位数增长的推动下，全球半导体市场预计将增长8.8%，达到5730亿美元。预计所有地区都将再次显示出良好的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Related stocks YTD returns: NXP Semiconductor(NASDAQ:NXPI)&nbsp;+24.7%, On Semiconducter(NASDAQ:ON)&nbsp;+14.85%, Intel(NASDAQ:INTC)&nbsp;+14.4%,&nbsp; and, TSMC(NYSE:TSM)&nbsp;+6.3%.</p><p><blockquote>相关股票年初至今回报率：恩智浦半导体（纳斯达克：NXPI）+24.7%、安森美半导体（纳斯达克：ON）+14.85%、英特尔（纳斯达克：INTC）+14.4%、台积电（纽约证券交易所：TSM）+6.3%。</blockquote></p><p> ETFs:SMH,SOXL,SOXX,XSD,USD,SOXS,PSI,FTXL,SSG.</p><p><blockquote>ETF：SMH、SOXL、SOXX、XSD、USD、SOXS、PSI、FTXL、SSG。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Global Semiconductor annual sales projected to increase 19.7% in 2021, 8.8% in 2022<blockquote>全球半导体年销售额预计2021年增长19.7%，2022年增长8.8%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGlobal Semiconductor annual sales projected to increase 19.7% in 2021, 8.8% in 2022<blockquote>全球半导体年销售额预计2021年增长19.7%，2022年增长8.8%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-10 22:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(June 10)&nbsp;Semiconductor&nbsp;stocks&nbsp;rose&nbsp;in&nbsp;morning&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>（6月10日）半导体股早盘走高。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1163875762\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Related:&nbsp;Semiconductor Watchlist: Jim Cramer Says to Own Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom</b></a><b></b></p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1163875762\" target=\"_blank\"><b>相关：半导体观察名单：吉姆·克莱默表示将拥有英伟达、AMD和博通</b></a><b></b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb703ee8165d2dc48c5550db47dfebc7\" tg-width=\"303\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> According to World Semiconductor Trade Statistics estimates, the global semiconductor market will rise from 6.8% in 2020 to 19.7% thisyear to ~$527B.</p><p><blockquote>根据世界半导体贸易统计估计，全球半导体市场将从2020年的6.8%上升到今年的19.7%，达到约527B美元。</blockquote></p><p> The most significant growth contributors are Memory with 31.7%, followed by Sensors with 22.4% and, Analog with 21.7%. All other major product categories are also expected to show double-digit growth rates, except Optoelectronics with 9.8% and MOS Micro with 8.1%.</p><p><blockquote>最重要的增长贡献者是内存，占31.7%，其次是传感器，占22.4%，模拟占21.7%。除光电9.8%和MOS微8.1%外，所有其他主要产品类别预计也将呈现两位数的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> In 2021, Asia Pacific (incl. China) is forecasted to show the most robust growth rate with 23.5%, followed by Europe with 21.1%, Japan 12.7%, and the Americas with 11.1%.</p><p><blockquote>2021年，亚太地区（包括中国）的增长率预计最强劲，为23.5%，其次是欧洲，为21.1%，日本为12.7%，美洲为11.1%。</blockquote></p><p> For 2022, the global semiconductor market is projected to grow by 8.8% to $573B, driven by double-digit growth of the Memory category. All regions are expected again to show favorable growth rates.</p><p><blockquote>2022年，在内存类别两位数增长的推动下，全球半导体市场预计将增长8.8%，达到5730亿美元。预计所有地区都将再次显示出良好的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Related stocks YTD returns: NXP Semiconductor(NASDAQ:NXPI)&nbsp;+24.7%, On Semiconducter(NASDAQ:ON)&nbsp;+14.85%, Intel(NASDAQ:INTC)&nbsp;+14.4%,&nbsp; and, TSMC(NYSE:TSM)&nbsp;+6.3%.</p><p><blockquote>相关股票年初至今回报率：恩智浦半导体（纳斯达克：NXPI）+24.7%、安森美半导体（纳斯达克：ON）+14.85%、英特尔（纳斯达克：INTC）+14.4%、台积电（纽约证券交易所：TSM）+6.3%。</blockquote></p><p> ETFs:SMH,SOXL,SOXX,XSD,USD,SOXS,PSI,FTXL,SSG.</p><p><blockquote>ETF：SMH、SOXL、SOXX、XSD、USD、SOXS、PSI、FTXL、SSG。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3704878-global-semiconductor-annual-sales-projected-to-increase-about-20-percentage-in-2021-and-9-percentage-in-2022\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSM":"台积电","INTC":"英特尔","NXPI":"恩智浦","ON":"安森美半导体"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3704878-global-semiconductor-annual-sales-projected-to-increase-about-20-percentage-in-2021-and-9-percentage-in-2022","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1193863762","content_text":"(June 10) Semiconductor stocks rose in morning trading.\nRelated: Semiconductor Watchlist: Jim Cramer Says to Own Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom\n\nAccording to World Semiconductor Trade Statistics estimates, the global semiconductor market will rise from 6.8% in 2020 to 19.7% thisyear to ~$527B.\nThe most significant growth contributors are Memory with 31.7%, followed by Sensors with 22.4% and, Analog with 21.7%. All other major product categories are also expected to show double-digit growth rates, except Optoelectronics with 9.8% and MOS Micro with 8.1%.\nIn 2021, Asia Pacific (incl. China) is forecasted to show the most robust growth rate with 23.5%, followed by Europe with 21.1%, Japan 12.7%, and the Americas with 11.1%.\nFor 2022, the global semiconductor market is projected to grow by 8.8% to $573B, driven by double-digit growth of the Memory category. All regions are expected again to show favorable growth rates.\nRelated stocks YTD returns: NXP Semiconductor(NASDAQ:NXPI) +24.7%, On Semiconducter(NASDAQ:ON) +14.85%, Intel(NASDAQ:INTC) +14.4%,  and, TSMC(NYSE:TSM) +6.3%.\nETFs:SMH,SOXL,SOXX,XSD,USD,SOXS,PSI,FTXL,SSG.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"INTC":0.9,"NXPI":0.9,"TSM":0.9,"ON":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1005,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":189493320,"gmtCreate":1623284135560,"gmtModify":1634035040971,"author":{"id":"3581982942860939","authorId":"3581982942860939","name":"SimS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581982942860939","authorIdStr":"3581982942860939"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"More see-saws to come&nbsp;during reflation","listText":"More see-saws to come&nbsp;during reflation","text":"More see-saws to come during reflation","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/189493320","repostId":"1142408805","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142408805","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623280126,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1142408805?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-10 07:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. stocks end lower ahead of inflation report<blockquote>美股在通胀报告公布前收低</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142408805","media":"reuters","summary":"NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street ended a see-saw session lower on Wednesday as market participants a","content":"<p>NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street ended a see-saw session lower on Wednesday as market participants awaited inflation data for clues as to when the U.S. Federal Reserve might tighten its dovish monetary policy.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（路透社）-华尔街周三收盘走低，市场参与者等待通胀数据，以寻找美联储何时可能收紧鸽派货币政策的线索。</blockquote></p><p> The retail “meme stock” craze continued unabated.</p><p><blockquote>零售“模因股”热潮不减。</blockquote></p><p> All three major U.S. stock indexes reversed earlier gains, but remained range-bound in the absence of any clear market catalysts.</p><p><blockquote>美国三大股指均扭转稍早涨势，但在缺乏任何明显市场催化剂的情况下仍维持区间震荡。</blockquote></p><p> “There’s a lull period in terms of news,” said Chuck Carlson, chief executive at Horizon Investment Services in Hammond, Indiana. “We’re through earnings period and people are waiting for inflation numbers tomorrow, so you have a mixed market where the major averages aren’t doing much of anything.”</p><p><blockquote>印第安纳州哈蒙德地平线投资服务公司首席执行官查克·卡尔森表示：“新闻方面有一段平静期。”“我们已经过了财报期，人们正在等待明天的通胀数据，因此市场好坏参半，主要股指没有采取太多行动。”</blockquote></p><p> Heavily shorted meme stocks extended their social media-driven rally, with Aethlon Medical soaring 388.2%.</p><p><blockquote>严重做空的meme股票延续了社交媒体推动的涨势，Aethlon Medical飙升388.2%。</blockquote></p><p> Reddit chatter also helped to lift shares of prison operator GEO Group and World Wrestling Entertainment 38.4% and 10.9%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>Reddit聊天还帮助监狱运营商GEO Group和World Wrestling Entertainment的股价分别上涨38.4%和10.9%。</blockquote></p><p> However, other meme stocks such as Clover Health, AMC Entertainment and Bed Bath &amp; Beyond closed lower.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Clover Health、AMC院线和Bed Bath&amp;Beyond等其他模因股票收盘走低。</blockquote></p><p> Retail volume has returned to its January peak, according to Vanda Research, as social media forums scramble to identify the next GameStop Corp, the stock that kicked off the phenomenon.</p><p><blockquote>Vanda Research的数据显示，随着社交媒体论坛争先恐后地寻找下一个游戏驿站公司，即引发这一现象的股票，零售额已回到一月份的峰值。</blockquote></p><p> “It feels like alternative stock market,” Carlson added. It’s an indication of speculation. You can be successful if you get in at the right moment but it’s very difficult to play successfully over time.”</p><p><blockquote>“这感觉就像另类股票市场，”卡尔森补充道。这是猜测的迹象。如果你在正确的时间进入，你就可以成功，但随着时间的推移，很难成功地发挥作用。”</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t think you should read too much regarding the broader market.”</p><p><blockquote>“我认为你不应该阅读太多关于大盘的信息。”</blockquote></p><p> GameStop named Matt Furlong as its new CEO ahead of its earnings report, which showed a quarterly loss of $1.01 per share. Its shares fell over 4% in after-hours trading.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站在发布财报之前任命马特·弗隆为新任首席执行官，财报显示季度亏损为每股1.01美元。其股价在盘后交易中下跌超过4%。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. President Joe Biden changed course in ongoing negotiations to reach a bipartisan agreement on infrastructure spending after one-on-one talks with Senator Shelley Capito broke down.</p><p><blockquote>在与参议员雪莱·卡皮托的一对一会谈破裂后，美国总统乔·拜登在正在进行的谈判中改变了路线，以就基础设施支出达成两党协议。</blockquote></p><p> Industrial stocks, which stand to benefit from an infrastructure deal, slid by 1%.</p><p><blockquote>将从基础设施交易中受益的工业股下跌1%。</blockquote></p><p> Washington lawmakers passed a sweeping bill designed to boost the United States’ ability to compete against Chinese technology, providing funds for research and semiconductor production amid an ongoing chip supply drought. The bill now heads to the House of Representatives.</p><p><blockquote>华盛顿立法者通过了一项全面的法案，旨在提高美国与中国技术竞争的能力，在持续的芯片供应干旱的情况下为研究和半导体生产提供资金。该法案现已提交众议院。</blockquote></p><p> Even so, the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index slipped 0.4%.</p><p><blockquote>即便如此，费城SE半导体指数仍下跌0.4%。</blockquote></p><p> The Labor Department’s consumer price index report due out Thursday will provide another take on inflation amid the recovery’s demand/supply imbalance as investors determine whether inflationary pressures, as the Fed asserts, will be transitory.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工部将于周四发布的消费者价格指数报告将在复苏的供需失衡中提供对通胀的另一种看法，因为投资者将确定通胀压力是否如美联储所称的那样是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 152.68 points, or 0.44%, to 34,447.14; the S&amp;P 500 lost 7.71 points, or 0.18%, at 4,219.55; and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 13.16 points, or 0.09%, to 13,911.75.</p><p><blockquote>道琼工业指数跌152.68点，或0.44%，报34447.14点；标普500下跌7.71点，或0.18%，报4,219.55点；纳斯达克综合指数下跌13.16点，跌幅0.09%，至13,911.75点。</blockquote></p><p> Among the 11 major sectors in the S&amp;P 500, healthcare gained the most.</p><p><blockquote>标普500 11大板块中，医疗保健涨幅最大。</blockquote></p><p> Benchmark Treasury yields dropped below 1.5% for the first time since May, weighing on interest-sensitive financials.</p><p><blockquote>基准美国国债收益率自5月以来首次跌破1.5%，令对利率敏感的金融股承压。</blockquote></p><p> Campbell Soup Co missed quarterly profit expectations and slashed its full-year earnings forecast, sending its shares down 6.5%.</p><p><blockquote>金宝汤公司未达到季度利润预期，并下调了全年盈利预期，导致其股价下跌6.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Drugmaker Merck &amp; Co rose 2.3% on the heels of its announcement the U.S. government had agreed to buy about 1.7 million courses of the company’s experimental COVID-19 treatment, molnupiravir, for about $1.2 billion, if the drug meets regulatory approval.</p><p><blockquote>制药商默克公司股价上涨2.3%，此前该公司宣布，如果该药物获得监管部门批准，美国政府已同意以约12亿美元的价格购买该公司约170万个疗程的实验性COVID-19治疗药物molnupiravir。</blockquote></p><p> Declining issues outnumbered advancers on the NYSE by a 1.12-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.13-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所下跌股与上涨股的比例为1.12比1；在纳斯达克，1.13比1的比率有利于下跌股。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 posted 38 new 52-week highs and two new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 126 new highs and 14 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下38个52周新高和两个新低；纳斯达克综合指数录得126个新高和14个新低。</blockquote></p><p> Volume on U.S. exchanges was 11.53 billion shares, compared with the 10.74 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所成交量为115.3亿股，而过去20个交易日的平均成交量为107.4亿股。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. stocks end lower ahead of inflation report<blockquote>美股在通胀报告公布前收低</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. stocks end lower ahead of inflation report<blockquote>美股在通胀报告公布前收低</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-10 07:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street ended a see-saw session lower on Wednesday as market participants awaited inflation data for clues as to when the U.S. Federal Reserve might tighten its dovish monetary policy.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（路透社）-华尔街周三收盘走低，市场参与者等待通胀数据，以寻找美联储何时可能收紧鸽派货币政策的线索。</blockquote></p><p> The retail “meme stock” craze continued unabated.</p><p><blockquote>零售“模因股”热潮不减。</blockquote></p><p> All three major U.S. stock indexes reversed earlier gains, but remained range-bound in the absence of any clear market catalysts.</p><p><blockquote>美国三大股指均扭转稍早涨势，但在缺乏任何明显市场催化剂的情况下仍维持区间震荡。</blockquote></p><p> “There’s a lull period in terms of news,” said Chuck Carlson, chief executive at Horizon Investment Services in Hammond, Indiana. “We’re through earnings period and people are waiting for inflation numbers tomorrow, so you have a mixed market where the major averages aren’t doing much of anything.”</p><p><blockquote>印第安纳州哈蒙德地平线投资服务公司首席执行官查克·卡尔森表示：“新闻方面有一段平静期。”“我们已经过了财报期，人们正在等待明天的通胀数据，因此市场好坏参半，主要股指没有采取太多行动。”</blockquote></p><p> Heavily shorted meme stocks extended their social media-driven rally, with Aethlon Medical soaring 388.2%.</p><p><blockquote>严重做空的meme股票延续了社交媒体推动的涨势，Aethlon Medical飙升388.2%。</blockquote></p><p> Reddit chatter also helped to lift shares of prison operator GEO Group and World Wrestling Entertainment 38.4% and 10.9%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>Reddit聊天还帮助监狱运营商GEO Group和World Wrestling Entertainment的股价分别上涨38.4%和10.9%。</blockquote></p><p> However, other meme stocks such as Clover Health, AMC Entertainment and Bed Bath &amp; Beyond closed lower.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Clover Health、AMC院线和Bed Bath&amp;Beyond等其他模因股票收盘走低。</blockquote></p><p> Retail volume has returned to its January peak, according to Vanda Research, as social media forums scramble to identify the next GameStop Corp, the stock that kicked off the phenomenon.</p><p><blockquote>Vanda Research的数据显示，随着社交媒体论坛争先恐后地寻找下一个游戏驿站公司，即引发这一现象的股票，零售额已回到一月份的峰值。</blockquote></p><p> “It feels like alternative stock market,” Carlson added. It’s an indication of speculation. You can be successful if you get in at the right moment but it’s very difficult to play successfully over time.”</p><p><blockquote>“这感觉就像另类股票市场，”卡尔森补充道。这是猜测的迹象。如果你在正确的时间进入，你就可以成功，但随着时间的推移，很难成功地发挥作用。”</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t think you should read too much regarding the broader market.”</p><p><blockquote>“我认为你不应该阅读太多关于大盘的信息。”</blockquote></p><p> GameStop named Matt Furlong as its new CEO ahead of its earnings report, which showed a quarterly loss of $1.01 per share. Its shares fell over 4% in after-hours trading.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站在发布财报之前任命马特·弗隆为新任首席执行官，财报显示季度亏损为每股1.01美元。其股价在盘后交易中下跌超过4%。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. President Joe Biden changed course in ongoing negotiations to reach a bipartisan agreement on infrastructure spending after one-on-one talks with Senator Shelley Capito broke down.</p><p><blockquote>在与参议员雪莱·卡皮托的一对一会谈破裂后，美国总统乔·拜登在正在进行的谈判中改变了路线，以就基础设施支出达成两党协议。</blockquote></p><p> Industrial stocks, which stand to benefit from an infrastructure deal, slid by 1%.</p><p><blockquote>将从基础设施交易中受益的工业股下跌1%。</blockquote></p><p> Washington lawmakers passed a sweeping bill designed to boost the United States’ ability to compete against Chinese technology, providing funds for research and semiconductor production amid an ongoing chip supply drought. The bill now heads to the House of Representatives.</p><p><blockquote>华盛顿立法者通过了一项全面的法案，旨在提高美国与中国技术竞争的能力，在持续的芯片供应干旱的情况下为研究和半导体生产提供资金。该法案现已提交众议院。</blockquote></p><p> Even so, the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index slipped 0.4%.</p><p><blockquote>即便如此，费城SE半导体指数仍下跌0.4%。</blockquote></p><p> The Labor Department’s consumer price index report due out Thursday will provide another take on inflation amid the recovery’s demand/supply imbalance as investors determine whether inflationary pressures, as the Fed asserts, will be transitory.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工部将于周四发布的消费者价格指数报告将在复苏的供需失衡中提供对通胀的另一种看法，因为投资者将确定通胀压力是否如美联储所称的那样是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 152.68 points, or 0.44%, to 34,447.14; the S&amp;P 500 lost 7.71 points, or 0.18%, at 4,219.55; and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 13.16 points, or 0.09%, to 13,911.75.</p><p><blockquote>道琼工业指数跌152.68点，或0.44%，报34447.14点；标普500下跌7.71点，或0.18%，报4,219.55点；纳斯达克综合指数下跌13.16点，跌幅0.09%，至13,911.75点。</blockquote></p><p> Among the 11 major sectors in the S&amp;P 500, healthcare gained the most.</p><p><blockquote>标普500 11大板块中，医疗保健涨幅最大。</blockquote></p><p> Benchmark Treasury yields dropped below 1.5% for the first time since May, weighing on interest-sensitive financials.</p><p><blockquote>基准美国国债收益率自5月以来首次跌破1.5%，令对利率敏感的金融股承压。</blockquote></p><p> Campbell Soup Co missed quarterly profit expectations and slashed its full-year earnings forecast, sending its shares down 6.5%.</p><p><blockquote>金宝汤公司未达到季度利润预期，并下调了全年盈利预期，导致其股价下跌6.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Drugmaker Merck &amp; Co rose 2.3% on the heels of its announcement the U.S. government had agreed to buy about 1.7 million courses of the company’s experimental COVID-19 treatment, molnupiravir, for about $1.2 billion, if the drug meets regulatory approval.</p><p><blockquote>制药商默克公司股价上涨2.3%，此前该公司宣布，如果该药物获得监管部门批准，美国政府已同意以约12亿美元的价格购买该公司约170万个疗程的实验性COVID-19治疗药物molnupiravir。</blockquote></p><p> Declining issues outnumbered advancers on the NYSE by a 1.12-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.13-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所下跌股与上涨股的比例为1.12比1；在纳斯达克，1.13比1的比率有利于下跌股。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 posted 38 new 52-week highs and two new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 126 new highs and 14 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下38个52周新高和两个新低；纳斯达克综合指数录得126个新高和14个新低。</blockquote></p><p> Volume on U.S. exchanges was 11.53 billion shares, compared with the 10.74 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所成交量为115.3亿股，而过去20个交易日的平均成交量为107.4亿股。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks/us-stocks-u-s-stocks-end-lower-ahead-of-inflation-report-idUSL2N2NR2UG\">reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","AEMD":"Aethlon Medical Inc",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks/us-stocks-u-s-stocks-end-lower-ahead-of-inflation-report-idUSL2N2NR2UG","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142408805","content_text":"NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street ended a see-saw session lower on Wednesday as market participants awaited inflation data for clues as to when the U.S. Federal Reserve might tighten its dovish monetary policy.\nThe retail “meme stock” craze continued unabated.\nAll three major U.S. stock indexes reversed earlier gains, but remained range-bound in the absence of any clear market catalysts.\n“There’s a lull period in terms of news,” said Chuck Carlson, chief executive at Horizon Investment Services in Hammond, Indiana. “We’re through earnings period and people are waiting for inflation numbers tomorrow, so you have a mixed market where the major averages aren’t doing much of anything.”\nHeavily shorted meme stocks extended their social media-driven rally, with Aethlon Medical soaring 388.2%.\nReddit chatter also helped to lift shares of prison operator GEO Group and World Wrestling Entertainment 38.4% and 10.9%, respectively.\nHowever, other meme stocks such as Clover Health, AMC Entertainment and Bed Bath & Beyond closed lower.\nRetail volume has returned to its January peak, according to Vanda Research, as social media forums scramble to identify the next GameStop Corp, the stock that kicked off the phenomenon.\n“It feels like alternative stock market,” Carlson added. It’s an indication of speculation. You can be successful if you get in at the right moment but it’s very difficult to play successfully over time.”\n“I don’t think you should read too much regarding the broader market.”\nGameStop named Matt Furlong as its new CEO ahead of its earnings report, which showed a quarterly loss of $1.01 per share. Its shares fell over 4% in after-hours trading.\nU.S. President Joe Biden changed course in ongoing negotiations to reach a bipartisan agreement on infrastructure spending after one-on-one talks with Senator Shelley Capito broke down.\nIndustrial stocks, which stand to benefit from an infrastructure deal, slid by 1%.\nWashington lawmakers passed a sweeping bill designed to boost the United States’ ability to compete against Chinese technology, providing funds for research and semiconductor production amid an ongoing chip supply drought. The bill now heads to the House of Representatives.\nEven so, the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index slipped 0.4%.\nThe Labor Department’s consumer price index report due out Thursday will provide another take on inflation amid the recovery’s demand/supply imbalance as investors determine whether inflationary pressures, as the Fed asserts, will be transitory.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 152.68 points, or 0.44%, to 34,447.14; the S&P 500 lost 7.71 points, or 0.18%, at 4,219.55; and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 13.16 points, or 0.09%, to 13,911.75.\nAmong the 11 major sectors in the S&P 500, healthcare gained the most.\nBenchmark Treasury yields dropped below 1.5% for the first time since May, weighing on interest-sensitive financials.\nCampbell Soup Co missed quarterly profit expectations and slashed its full-year earnings forecast, sending its shares down 6.5%.\nDrugmaker Merck & Co rose 2.3% on the heels of its announcement the U.S. government had agreed to buy about 1.7 million courses of the company’s experimental COVID-19 treatment, molnupiravir, for about $1.2 billion, if the drug meets regulatory approval.\nDeclining issues outnumbered advancers on the NYSE by a 1.12-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.13-to-1 ratio favored decliners.\nThe S&P 500 posted 38 new 52-week highs and two new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 126 new highs and 14 new lows.\nVolume on U.S. exchanges was 11.53 billion shares, compared with the 10.74 billion average over the last 20 trading days.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AEMD":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":497,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153569944,"gmtCreate":1625035676288,"gmtModify":1633945583540,"author":{"id":"3581982942860939","authorId":"3581982942860939","name":"SimS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581982942860939","authorIdStr":"3581982942860939"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Back to the big boys of automobiles","listText":"Back to the big boys of automobiles","text":"Back to the big boys of automobiles","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/153569944","repostId":"2147558864","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2147558864","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1625035341,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2147558864?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-30 14:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla is under pressure from Nio, but these are the best EV investments right now, analysts say<blockquote>分析师表示，特斯拉面临蔚来的压力，但这些是目前最好的电动汽车投资</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2147558864","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Volkswagen, GM, and three other carmakers round out the list of Swiss bank UBS' favorite EV stocks.\n","content":"<p>Volkswagen, GM, and three other carmakers round out the list of Swiss bank UBS' favorite EV stocks.</p><p><blockquote>大众汽车、通用汽车和其他三家汽车制造商跻身瑞士银行瑞银最喜欢的电动汽车股票之列。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c016bc1ae9557413b5f6cc887e878cfe\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"797\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Tesla, led by CEO Elon Musk, remains the undisputed leader in electric-vehicles, but faces growing pressure on multiple fronts, UBS said.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>瑞银表示，由首席执行官Elon Musk领导的特斯拉仍然是电动汽车领域无可争议的领导者，但在多个方面面临越来越大的压力。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tesla remains the world-leader in electric-vehicles but is under increasing pressure in China, with better opportunities emerging among other automakers for investors keen to play the growing trend, UBS said on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>瑞银周二表示，特斯拉仍然是电动汽车领域的全球领导者，但在中国面临越来越大的压力，其他汽车制造商为热衷于利用这一增长趋势的投资者提供了更好的机会。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts at the Swiss bank <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">$(UBS)$</a> cut their price target on Tesla <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$(TSLA)$</a> stock by 10%, from $730 to $660, citing pressure in China, as well as delays to Tesla's self-driving product and launch of the Model Y in Europe.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士银行分析师<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">$（瑞银）$</a>下调特斯拉的目标价<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$(TSLA)$</a>股价上涨10%，从730美元上涨至660美元，原因是中国的压力，以及特斯拉自动驾驶产品和Model Y在欧洲推出的延迟。</blockquote></p><p> \"Our key concern shorter-term is that Tesla's demand momentum in China is slowing, and our checks on the ground suggest that BEVs [Battery Electric Vehicles] from domestic brands are gaining further ground vs. Tesla, which may trigger additional pricing action by Tesla and consequently lower gross margins,\" analyst Patrick Hummel said.</p><p><blockquote>“我们短期内的主要担忧是特斯拉在中国的需求势头正在放缓，我们的实地检查表明，国产品牌的纯电动汽车与特斯拉相比正在取得进一步的进展，这可能会引发特斯拉采取额外的定价行动，从而降低毛利率，”分析师Patrick Hummel表示。</blockquote></p><p> \"The EV launches from competitors with high range, charging performance and attractive value-for-money, could continue to weigh on the value the market is willing to assign to Tesla's long-term growth,\" Hummel added.</p><p><blockquote>胡梅尔补充道：“竞争对手推出的电动汽车具有高续航里程、充电性能和有吸引力的性价比，可能会继续影响市场愿意赋予特斯拉长期增长的价值。”</blockquote></p><p> In China, the pioneering electric-vehicle company led by Elon Musk faces stiff competition from domestic manufacturers like NIO <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$(NIO)$</a>, BYD , and XPeng <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$(XPEV)$</a>, which all show strong positive momentum, UBS said.</p><p><blockquote>在中国，由Elon Musk领导的电动汽车先驱公司面临着来自蔚来等国内制造商的激烈竞争<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$（蔚来）$</a>、比亚迪、小鹏汽车<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$(XPEV)$</a>瑞银表示，所有这些都显示出强劲的积极势头。</blockquote></p><p> Now that most of the major automakers have decided to go all-in on electric-vehicles, with ambitious targets for new product lines a recurring theme among the world's largest car companies, UBS identifies four factors likely to drive outperformance in auto stocks.</p><p><blockquote>既然大多数主要汽车制造商都决定全力发展电动汽车，新产品线的雄心勃勃的目标是全球最大的汽车公司中反复出现的主题，瑞银指出了四个可能推动汽车股表现优异的因素。</blockquote></p><p> They are: a strong EV sales curve, a crystallized portfolio value, excellent regional and segmental exposure, and an ability to pass on higher commodity prices.</p><p><blockquote>它们是：强劲的电动汽车销售曲线、结晶的投资组合价值、出色的区域和细分市场敞口以及转嫁大宗商品价格上涨的能力。</blockquote></p><p> Using these factors, the analysts at UBS found that Volkswagen XE:VOW (#phrase-company?ref=COMPANY%7CXE%3AVOW;onlineSignificance=prominent), the EV leader in Europe and Tesla's fiercest competitor scored best.</p><p><blockquote>利用这些因素，瑞银的分析师发现，欧洲电动汽车领导者、特斯拉最激烈的竞争对手大众XE：VOW（#phrase-company？ref=company%7CXE%3AVOW；onlineSignificance=prominent）得分最高。</blockquote></p><p> UBS raised its target price for GM stock--which it rates a buy--to $79 from $75, with the target price for Volkswagen being EUR300 ($357). GM stock is currently trading around $59, while shares in Volkswagen were trading for more than EUR216--implying that both companies could provide attractive returns to investors.</p><p><blockquote>瑞银将通用汽车股票的目标价（评级为买入）从75美元上调至79美元，大众汽车的目标价为300欧元（357美元）。通用汽车股票目前交易价格约为59美元，而大众汽车股票交易价格超过216欧元，这意味着两家公司都可以为投资者提供有吸引力的回报。</blockquote></p><p> South Korea's Hyundai is another company that could emerge as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> of the best re-rating stories as the market comes to realize the value of its assets, UBS said. France's Renault and China's Li Auto <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$(LI)$</a> rounded out the list of UBS' five most-favoured EV stocks. The bank also raised its target price on Ford <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">$(F)$</a>, which it rates neutral, to $16 from $13.</p><p><blockquote>韩国现代汽车是另一家可能成为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">一</a>瑞银表示，随着市场意识到其资产价值，这是最好的重新评级故事之一。法国雷诺和中国理想汽车<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$(LI)$</a>完成了瑞银最受青睐的五只电动汽车股票的名单。该行还上调了福特的目标价<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">$(F)$</a>评级为中性，从13美元上调至16美元。</blockquote></p><p> The team at UBS took a hard look at the industry landscape in the wake of its latest electric-vehicle consumer survey, involving more than 11,000 participants in the world's largest EV markets. The results show that \"EV mass adoption is an unstoppable trend with rapidly accelerating momentum,\" the team concluded, with 43% of consumers likely to consider buying a fully-electric car--up from 37% a year ago.</p><p><blockquote>瑞银的团队在最新的电动汽车消费者调查后仔细审视了行业格局，涉及全球最大电动汽车市场的11,000多名参与者。结果显示，“电动汽车的大规模采用是一个不可阻挡的趋势，并且势头迅速加速，”该团队总结道，43%的消费者可能会考虑购买全电动汽车，高于一年前的37%。</blockquote></p><p> For the first time, fully-electric vehicles are preferred over plug-in hybrids, with keenness for EVs accelerating fastest among American consumers, UBS said. In the wake of the survey, UBS raised its sales forecast for China to 2.5 million EVs in 2021, up from 1.9 million, with a view that EVs will make up 20% of the car market globally by 2025 and 50% by 2030.</p><p><blockquote>瑞银表示，全电动汽车首次超过插电式混合动力汽车，美国消费者对电动汽车的热情增长最快。调查结束后，瑞银将2021年中国电动汽车销量预测从190万辆上调至250万辆，预计到2025年电动汽车将占全球汽车市场的20%，到2030年将占50%。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla is still the \"undisputed leader\" in UBS' books. The recent consumer survey was \"solid across the board for Tesla,\" Hummel said, though \"momentum in the quarters ahead is likely more in favor of competitors with a busier launch pipeline.\" In conclusion: Tesla's lead is shrinking, and investors would be well advised to seek out other opportunities for high-growth plays.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉仍然是瑞银账面上“无可争议的领导者”。胡梅尔表示，最近的消费者调查“对特斯拉来说全面稳健”，尽管“未来几个季度的势头可能更有利于拥有更繁忙发布渠道的竞争对手。”总之：特斯拉的领先优势正在缩小，投资者最好寻找其他高增长股票的机会。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla is under pressure from Nio, but these are the best EV investments right now, analysts say<blockquote>分析师表示，特斯拉面临蔚来的压力，但这些是目前最好的电动汽车投资</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla is under pressure from Nio, but these are the best EV investments right now, analysts say<blockquote>分析师表示，特斯拉面临蔚来的压力，但这些是目前最好的电动汽车投资</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-30 14:42</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Volkswagen, GM, and three other carmakers round out the list of Swiss bank UBS' favorite EV stocks.</p><p><blockquote>大众汽车、通用汽车和其他三家汽车制造商跻身瑞士银行瑞银最喜欢的电动汽车股票之列。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c016bc1ae9557413b5f6cc887e878cfe\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"797\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Tesla, led by CEO Elon Musk, remains the undisputed leader in electric-vehicles, but faces growing pressure on multiple fronts, UBS said.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>瑞银表示，由首席执行官Elon Musk领导的特斯拉仍然是电动汽车领域无可争议的领导者，但在多个方面面临越来越大的压力。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tesla remains the world-leader in electric-vehicles but is under increasing pressure in China, with better opportunities emerging among other automakers for investors keen to play the growing trend, UBS said on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>瑞银周二表示，特斯拉仍然是电动汽车领域的全球领导者，但在中国面临越来越大的压力，其他汽车制造商为热衷于利用这一增长趋势的投资者提供了更好的机会。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts at the Swiss bank <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">$(UBS)$</a> cut their price target on Tesla <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$(TSLA)$</a> stock by 10%, from $730 to $660, citing pressure in China, as well as delays to Tesla's self-driving product and launch of the Model Y in Europe.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士银行分析师<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">$（瑞银）$</a>下调特斯拉的目标价<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$(TSLA)$</a>股价上涨10%，从730美元上涨至660美元，原因是中国的压力，以及特斯拉自动驾驶产品和Model Y在欧洲推出的延迟。</blockquote></p><p> \"Our key concern shorter-term is that Tesla's demand momentum in China is slowing, and our checks on the ground suggest that BEVs [Battery Electric Vehicles] from domestic brands are gaining further ground vs. Tesla, which may trigger additional pricing action by Tesla and consequently lower gross margins,\" analyst Patrick Hummel said.</p><p><blockquote>“我们短期内的主要担忧是特斯拉在中国的需求势头正在放缓，我们的实地检查表明，国产品牌的纯电动汽车与特斯拉相比正在取得进一步的进展，这可能会引发特斯拉采取额外的定价行动，从而降低毛利率，”分析师Patrick Hummel表示。</blockquote></p><p> \"The EV launches from competitors with high range, charging performance and attractive value-for-money, could continue to weigh on the value the market is willing to assign to Tesla's long-term growth,\" Hummel added.</p><p><blockquote>胡梅尔补充道：“竞争对手推出的电动汽车具有高续航里程、充电性能和有吸引力的性价比，可能会继续影响市场愿意赋予特斯拉长期增长的价值。”</blockquote></p><p> In China, the pioneering electric-vehicle company led by Elon Musk faces stiff competition from domestic manufacturers like NIO <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$(NIO)$</a>, BYD , and XPeng <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$(XPEV)$</a>, which all show strong positive momentum, UBS said.</p><p><blockquote>在中国，由Elon Musk领导的电动汽车先驱公司面临着来自蔚来等国内制造商的激烈竞争<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$（蔚来）$</a>、比亚迪、小鹏汽车<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$(XPEV)$</a>瑞银表示，所有这些都显示出强劲的积极势头。</blockquote></p><p> Now that most of the major automakers have decided to go all-in on electric-vehicles, with ambitious targets for new product lines a recurring theme among the world's largest car companies, UBS identifies four factors likely to drive outperformance in auto stocks.</p><p><blockquote>既然大多数主要汽车制造商都决定全力发展电动汽车，新产品线的雄心勃勃的目标是全球最大的汽车公司中反复出现的主题，瑞银指出了四个可能推动汽车股表现优异的因素。</blockquote></p><p> They are: a strong EV sales curve, a crystallized portfolio value, excellent regional and segmental exposure, and an ability to pass on higher commodity prices.</p><p><blockquote>它们是：强劲的电动汽车销售曲线、结晶的投资组合价值、出色的区域和细分市场敞口以及转嫁大宗商品价格上涨的能力。</blockquote></p><p> Using these factors, the analysts at UBS found that Volkswagen XE:VOW (#phrase-company?ref=COMPANY%7CXE%3AVOW;onlineSignificance=prominent), the EV leader in Europe and Tesla's fiercest competitor scored best.</p><p><blockquote>利用这些因素，瑞银的分析师发现，欧洲电动汽车领导者、特斯拉最激烈的竞争对手大众XE：VOW（#phrase-company？ref=company%7CXE%3AVOW；onlineSignificance=prominent）得分最高。</blockquote></p><p> UBS raised its target price for GM stock--which it rates a buy--to $79 from $75, with the target price for Volkswagen being EUR300 ($357). GM stock is currently trading around $59, while shares in Volkswagen were trading for more than EUR216--implying that both companies could provide attractive returns to investors.</p><p><blockquote>瑞银将通用汽车股票的目标价（评级为买入）从75美元上调至79美元，大众汽车的目标价为300欧元（357美元）。通用汽车股票目前交易价格约为59美元，而大众汽车股票交易价格超过216欧元，这意味着两家公司都可以为投资者提供有吸引力的回报。</blockquote></p><p> South Korea's Hyundai is another company that could emerge as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> of the best re-rating stories as the market comes to realize the value of its assets, UBS said. France's Renault and China's Li Auto <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$(LI)$</a> rounded out the list of UBS' five most-favoured EV stocks. The bank also raised its target price on Ford <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">$(F)$</a>, which it rates neutral, to $16 from $13.</p><p><blockquote>韩国现代汽车是另一家可能成为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">一</a>瑞银表示，随着市场意识到其资产价值，这是最好的重新评级故事之一。法国雷诺和中国理想汽车<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$(LI)$</a>完成了瑞银最受青睐的五只电动汽车股票的名单。该行还上调了福特的目标价<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">$(F)$</a>评级为中性，从13美元上调至16美元。</blockquote></p><p> The team at UBS took a hard look at the industry landscape in the wake of its latest electric-vehicle consumer survey, involving more than 11,000 participants in the world's largest EV markets. The results show that \"EV mass adoption is an unstoppable trend with rapidly accelerating momentum,\" the team concluded, with 43% of consumers likely to consider buying a fully-electric car--up from 37% a year ago.</p><p><blockquote>瑞银的团队在最新的电动汽车消费者调查后仔细审视了行业格局，涉及全球最大电动汽车市场的11,000多名参与者。结果显示，“电动汽车的大规模采用是一个不可阻挡的趋势，并且势头迅速加速，”该团队总结道，43%的消费者可能会考虑购买全电动汽车，高于一年前的37%。</blockquote></p><p> For the first time, fully-electric vehicles are preferred over plug-in hybrids, with keenness for EVs accelerating fastest among American consumers, UBS said. In the wake of the survey, UBS raised its sales forecast for China to 2.5 million EVs in 2021, up from 1.9 million, with a view that EVs will make up 20% of the car market globally by 2025 and 50% by 2030.</p><p><blockquote>瑞银表示，全电动汽车首次超过插电式混合动力汽车，美国消费者对电动汽车的热情增长最快。调查结束后，瑞银将2021年中国电动汽车销量预测从190万辆上调至250万辆，预计到2025年电动汽车将占全球汽车市场的20%，到2030年将占50%。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla is still the \"undisputed leader\" in UBS' books. The recent consumer survey was \"solid across the board for Tesla,\" Hummel said, though \"momentum in the quarters ahead is likely more in favor of competitors with a busier launch pipeline.\" In conclusion: Tesla's lead is shrinking, and investors would be well advised to seek out other opportunities for high-growth plays.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉仍然是瑞银账面上“无可争议的领导者”。胡梅尔表示，最近的消费者调查“对特斯拉来说全面稳健”，尽管“未来几个季度的势头可能更有利于拥有更繁忙发布渠道的竞争对手。”总之：特斯拉的领先优势正在缩小，投资者最好寻找其他高增长股票的机会。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-is-under-pressure-from-nio-but-these-are-the-best-electric-vehicle-investments-right-now-says-ubs-11624980469?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","002594":"比亚迪","XPEV":"小鹏集团","LI":"理想汽车","HYMLY":"Hyundai Motor Co., Ltd.","01211":"比亚迪股份","NIO":"蔚来","GM":"通用汽车","F":"福特汽车","USB":"美国合众银行"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-is-under-pressure-from-nio-but-these-are-the-best-electric-vehicle-investments-right-now-says-ubs-11624980469?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2147558864","content_text":"Volkswagen, GM, and three other carmakers round out the list of Swiss bank UBS' favorite EV stocks.\nTesla, led by CEO Elon Musk, remains the undisputed leader in electric-vehicles, but faces growing pressure on multiple fronts, UBS said.\nTesla remains the world-leader in electric-vehicles but is under increasing pressure in China, with better opportunities emerging among other automakers for investors keen to play the growing trend, UBS said on Tuesday.\nAnalysts at the Swiss bank $(UBS)$ cut their price target on Tesla $(TSLA)$ stock by 10%, from $730 to $660, citing pressure in China, as well as delays to Tesla's self-driving product and launch of the Model Y in Europe.\n\"Our key concern shorter-term is that Tesla's demand momentum in China is slowing, and our checks on the ground suggest that BEVs [Battery Electric Vehicles] from domestic brands are gaining further ground vs. Tesla, which may trigger additional pricing action by Tesla and consequently lower gross margins,\" analyst Patrick Hummel said.\n\"The EV launches from competitors with high range, charging performance and attractive value-for-money, could continue to weigh on the value the market is willing to assign to Tesla's long-term growth,\" Hummel added.\nIn China, the pioneering electric-vehicle company led by Elon Musk faces stiff competition from domestic manufacturers like NIO $(NIO)$, BYD , and XPeng $(XPEV)$, which all show strong positive momentum, UBS said.\nNow that most of the major automakers have decided to go all-in on electric-vehicles, with ambitious targets for new product lines a recurring theme among the world's largest car companies, UBS identifies four factors likely to drive outperformance in auto stocks.\nThey are: a strong EV sales curve, a crystallized portfolio value, excellent regional and segmental exposure, and an ability to pass on higher commodity prices.\nUsing these factors, the analysts at UBS found that Volkswagen XE:VOW (#phrase-company?ref=COMPANY%7CXE%3AVOW;onlineSignificance=prominent), the EV leader in Europe and Tesla's fiercest competitor scored best.\nUBS raised its target price for GM stock--which it rates a buy--to $79 from $75, with the target price for Volkswagen being EUR300 ($357). GM stock is currently trading around $59, while shares in Volkswagen were trading for more than EUR216--implying that both companies could provide attractive returns to investors.\nSouth Korea's Hyundai is another company that could emerge as one of the best re-rating stories as the market comes to realize the value of its assets, UBS said. France's Renault and China's Li Auto $(LI)$ rounded out the list of UBS' five most-favoured EV stocks. The bank also raised its target price on Ford $(F)$, which it rates neutral, to $16 from $13.\nThe team at UBS took a hard look at the industry landscape in the wake of its latest electric-vehicle consumer survey, involving more than 11,000 participants in the world's largest EV markets. The results show that \"EV mass adoption is an unstoppable trend with rapidly accelerating momentum,\" the team concluded, with 43% of consumers likely to consider buying a fully-electric car--up from 37% a year ago.\nFor the first time, fully-electric vehicles are preferred over plug-in hybrids, with keenness for EVs accelerating fastest among American consumers, UBS said. In the wake of the survey, UBS raised its sales forecast for China to 2.5 million EVs in 2021, up from 1.9 million, with a view that EVs will make up 20% of the car market globally by 2025 and 50% by 2030.\nTesla is still the \"undisputed leader\" in UBS' books. The recent consumer survey was \"solid across the board for Tesla,\" Hummel said, though \"momentum in the quarters ahead is likely more in favor of competitors with a busier launch pipeline.\" In conclusion: Tesla's lead is shrinking, and investors would be well advised to seek out other opportunities for high-growth plays.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"XPEV":0.9,"NIO":0.9,"HYMLY":0.9,"002594":0.9,"01211":0.9,"GM":0.9,"LI":0.9,"F":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"USB":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2089,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181114065,"gmtCreate":1623378271357,"gmtModify":1634033991017,"author":{"id":"3581982942860939","authorId":"3581982942860939","name":"SimS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581982942860939","authorIdStr":"3581982942860939"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Seems bright","listText":"Seems bright","text":"Seems bright","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181114065","repostId":"1127823989","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":696,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}