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amazinggrace

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2021-06-11

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2021-06-12

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2021-05-31

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2021-05-01

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2021-05-13

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2021-10-07

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2021-05-30

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2021-05-29

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2021-05-09

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2021-10-27

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thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/615989067","repostId":"2235798704","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2235798704","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1652714308,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2235798704?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-05-16 23:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: One Big Time Sale<blockquote>苹果：一次大促销</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2235798704","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Investment ThesisApple (NASDAQ:AAPL) designs, manufactures, and distributes smartphones, personal co","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><h2>Investment Thesis</h2>Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) designs, manufactures, and distributes smartphones, personal computers, wearables, and related services. Apple has been <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the most valuable companies in the world for a while and has leadership positions in numerous fields. Its massive installed device base (1.8B active devices) is pushing Apple&#39;s service revenue upwards at a rapid pace, and the overall company&#39;s profit margin is also improving. Furthermore, Apple is moving to become self-sufficient to reduce costs and mitigate supply chain disruptions, and the effort has been paying off. I expect Apple to continue its success well into the future, and the current volatility in the tech sector is presenting a huge opportunity to grab Apple shares at a discount because:</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body><h2>投资论文</h2>苹果（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）设计、制造和分销智能手机、个人电脑、可穿戴设备和相关服务。苹果已经<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>并在众多领域占据领导地位。其庞大的安装设备基础（1.8 B活跃设备）正在推动苹果的服务收入快速上升，公司整体利润率也在改善。此外，苹果正在走向自给自足，以降低成本并缓解供应链中断，这一努力已经得到了回报。我预计苹果将在未来继续取得成功，而当前科技行业的波动为以折扣价抢购苹果股票提供了巨大的机会，因为：</body></html></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Apple&#39;s high margin businesses (Mac and Service segments) are growing at a rapid pace, contributing to great revenue growth and margin expansion.</li><li>Revenue growth trajectory remains solid with an increasing subscription base and new product releases (iPad Air, iPhone SE, and etc.).</li><li>The market volatility and tech sector sell-off dragged Apple&#39;s stock down, and it is now being sold under its pre-pandemic level. This presents a great opportunity.</li></ul><h3>Growing in Right Segments</h3>Since I wrote my last article, Apple reported quarterly earnings in late April, and the results continue to demonstrate that Apple is focusing on the correct segments for growth and profitability. Overall revenue grew 9% YoY to $97.3 B, and they generated a whopping $28 B operating cash flow. Particularly, their Mac segment and services segment led the charge.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果的高利润业务（Mac和服务部门）正在快速增长，为收入增长和利润扩张做出了巨大贡献。</li><li>随着订阅基础的增加和新产品的发布（iPad Air、iPhone SE等），收入增长轨迹保持稳健。</li><li>市场波动和科技行业抛售拖累苹果股价下跌，目前其售价低于大流行前的水平。这提供了一个很好的机会。</li></ul><h3>在正确的细分市场增长</h3>自从我写上一篇文章以来，苹果于四月下旬公布了季度收益，结果继续表明苹果正在专注于正确的增长和盈利领域。整体收入同比增长9%至$97.3 B，并产生了高达$28B的运营现金流。特别是，他们的Mac部门和服务部门处于领先地位。</blockquote></p><p>Apple has been working on becoming self-sufficient and manufacturing key product components internally. A couple of years ago Apple took the noteworthy action of severing ties with Intel and making their own computer chips. The effort has been paying a great dividend. The Apple M1 (their own chip) has been performing very well against Intel and other chips on the market, and Mac sales have been very strong. Additionally, producing their own chips boosted the profit margins on Mac products.</p><p><blockquote>苹果一直致力于实现自给自足，并在内部制造关键产品部件。几年前，苹果采取了一项值得注意的行动，切断了与英特尔的联系，并制造了自己的计算机芯片。这一努力获得了巨大的回报。苹果M1（他们自己的芯片）与英特尔和市场上的其他芯片相比表现非常好，Mac的销售也非常强劲。此外，生产自己的芯片提高了Mac产品的利润率。</blockquote></p><p>Strong performance by Apple Services segment (advertising, AppleCare, Cloud, Digital Content, Payment) is also welcome news for investors. The services segment is a 2x higher gross margin business (72.6%) than the products segment (36.4%), and it has higher growth potential from cloud and digital content. Assisted by its massive installed device base (1.8 B active devices), AppleCare has great potential for increasing revenue as well. Overall, the strong performance from Mac and Services shows that there are good days ahead.</p><p><blockquote>苹果服务部门（广告、AppleCare、云、数字内容、支付）的强劲表现对投资者来说也是个好消息。服务部门的毛利率（72.6%）是产品部门（36.4%）的两倍，并且云和数字内容具有更高的增长潜力。得益于其庞大的已安装设备基础（1.8 B活跃设备），AppleCare也具有巨大的收入增长潜力。总体而言，Mac和服务的强劲表现表明未来的日子会很好。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141d5a91e5df23365dae251e9bab5e0b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"187\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Performance by Segments (SEC Filings)</p><p><blockquote>按部门划分的业绩（SEC文件）</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/121762b45f7dec13cf921113a187da10\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"184\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Gross Margins of Apple by Segments (SEC Filings)</p><p><blockquote>按细分市场划分的苹果毛利率（SEC文件）</blockquote></p><p><h4>Strong Revenue Growth Trajectory</h4>Apple has been growing at a solid pace (10% per year, 5-year average) in the past several years, and the revenue growth is accelerating. This acceleration is due to multiple factors. The first one is the continuing strong performance from new products, and there is no sign that this trend is going to end. During the last quarter, Apple released iPhone SE with 5 G technology, iPad Air with M1 chip, all-new Mac Studio, and all-new Apple Studio Display.</p><p><blockquote><h4>强劲的收入增长轨迹</h4>苹果在过去几年中一直以稳健的速度增长（每年10%，5年平均），并且收入增长正在加速。这种加速是由多种因素造成的。首先是新产品的持续强劲表现，而且没有迹象表明这种趋势即将结束。上个季度，苹果发布了采用5G技术的iPhone SE、采用M1芯片的iPad Air、全新的Mac Studio和全新的苹果Studio显示屏。</blockquote></p><p>As mentioned before, Apple currently has 1.8 B active device bases, and the number is expected to grow with the release of new products. The active base has been growing at about 100-150 million per year (1.4 B, 1.5 B, 1.65 B, and 1.8 B in 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022, respectively). Also, this larger installed base will translate into greater revenue growth from AppleCare, advertising, and cloud services. Currently, Apple has about 785 M subscribers to these services.</p><p><blockquote>如前所述，苹果目前拥有1.8 B个有源器件底座，预计随着新产品的发布，数量还会增长。活跃基数一直在以每年约1亿至1.5亿的速度增长（2019年、2020年、2021年和2022年分别为1.4 B、1.5 B、16.5 B和1.8 B）。此外，更大的安装基础将转化为AppleCare、广告和云服务的更大收入增长。目前，苹果拥有约7.85亿这些服务的用户。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac35dc5d8146da0ab3d88270dbc0b6db\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote></p><p><h4>Favorable Valuation Thanks to Volatility</h4>Ongoing volatility caused by supply chain disruption, inflation, war, and Federal Reserve&#39;s changing policies dragged the whole tech sector severely down. Nasdaq index is down from 16,000 in November 2021 to below 12,000. This volatility dragged great companies like Apple along, and now Apple stock is trading below its pre-pandemic level (current P/E ratio of 23.8x vs. pre-pandemic P/E around 25.5x). This presents a great opportunity for investors to grab Apple shares at a bargain.</p><p><blockquote><h4>波动性带来有利的估值</h4>供应链中断、通货膨胀、战争和美联储政策变化造成的持续波动严重拖累了整个科技行业。纳斯达克指数从2021年11月的16,000点降至12,000点以下。这种波动拖累了像苹果这样的伟大公司，现在苹果股票的交易价格低于大流行前的水平（当前市盈率为23.8倍，而大流行前市盈率约为25.5倍）。这为投资者提供了低价买入苹果股票的绝佳机会。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60f28dab37b8c21b885a326a9994c721\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Nasdaq Index (CNBC)</p><p><blockquote>纳斯达克指数(CNBC)</blockquote></p><p></p><p><h2>Intrinsic Value Estimation</h2>I used DCF model to estimate the intrinsic value of Apple. For the estimation, I utilized current EBITDA ($130 B) as a proxy for cash flow and WACC of 9.0% as the discount rate. For the base case, I assumed EBITDA growth of 20% (Sector median) for the next 5 years and zero growth afterwards (zero terminal growth). For the bullish and very bullish case, I assumed EBITDA growth of 22% and 24%, respectively, for the next 5 years and zero growth afterwards.</p><p><blockquote><h2>内在价值估计</h2>我使用DCF模型来估计苹果的内在价值。为了进行估计，我使用当前的EBITDA($130 B)作为现金流的代表，并使用9.0%的WACC作为贴现率。对于基本情况，我假设未来5年EBITDA增长20%（行业中位数），之后为零增长（终端零增长）。对于看涨和非常看涨的情况，我假设未来5年EBITDA分别增长22%和24%，之后为零增长。</blockquote></p><p>The estimation revealed that the current stock price presents 20-30% upside. Given their technological superiority, organic/inorganic growth, and market dominance, I expect them to achieve this upside with ease.</p><p><blockquote>估计显示，目前股价有20-30%的上涨空间。鉴于他们的技术优势、有机/无机增长和市场主导地位，我预计他们将轻松实现这一优势。</blockquote></p><p><table><tbody><tr><td></td><td>Price Target</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td></td><td>价格目标</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td><td>Upside</p><p><blockquote><td>上行</td></blockquote></p><p></td></tr><tr><td>Base Case</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>基本情况</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td><td>$170.23</p><p><blockquote><td>$170.23</td></blockquote></p><p></td><td>16%</p><p><blockquote><td>16%</td></blockquote></p><p></td></tr><tr><td>Bullish Case</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>看涨案例</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td><td>$182.92</p><p><blockquote><td>$182.92</td></blockquote></p><p></td><td>24%</p><p><blockquote><td>24%</td></blockquote></p><p></td></tr><tr><td>Very Bullish Case</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>非常乐观的案例</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td><td>$196.41</p><p><blockquote><td>$196.41</td></blockquote></p><p></td><td>34%</p><p><blockquote><td>34%</td></blockquote></p><p></td></tr></tbody></table>The assumptions and data used for the price target estimation are summarized below:</p><p><blockquote>用于价格目标估计的假设及数据概述如下：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>WACC: 9.0%</li><li>EBITDA Growth Rate: 20% (Base Case), 22% (Bullish Case), 24% (Very Bullish Case)</li><li>Current EBITDA: $130 B</li><li>Current Stock Price: $147.11 (05/14/2022)</li><li>Tax rate: 20%</li></ul><h2>Cappuccino Stock Rating</h2>The details of the metric is explained in this article.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>WACC：9.0%</li><li>EBITDA增长率：20%（基本情况）、22%（看涨情况）、24%（非常看涨情况）</li><li>当前EBITDA：$130 B</li><li>现时股价：$147.11(05/14/2022)</li><li>税率：20%</li></ul><h2>卡布奇诺股票评级</h2>本文解释了该指标的细节。</blockquote></p><p><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td></td><td>Weighting</td><td>AAPL</td></tr><tr><td>Economic Moat Strength</td><td>30%</td><td>5</td></tr><tr><td>Financial Strength</td><td>30%</td><td>4</td></tr><tr><td>Growth Rate vs. Sector</td><td>15%</td><td>3</td></tr><tr><td>Margin of Safety</td><td>15%</td><td>5</td></tr><tr><td>Sector Outlook</td><td>10%</td><td>4</td></tr><tr><td><b>Overall</b></td><td></td><td><b>4.3</b></td></tr></tbody></table><h4><b>Economic Moat Strength - 5/5</b></h4>Apple gets 5 out of 5. Apple is a clear leader with exceptional competitive edge. Their competitive edge stems from technological superiority, switching costs, and network effects.</p><p><blockquote><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td></td><td>权重</td><td>AAPL</td></tr><tr><td>经济护城河实力</td><td>30%</td><td>5</td></tr><tr><td>财务实力</td><td>30%</td><td>4</td></tr><tr><td>增长率与行业</td><td>15%</td><td>3</td></tr><tr><td>安全边际</td><td>15%</td><td>5</td></tr><tr><td>行业展望</td><td>10%</td><td>4</td></tr><tr><td><b>总的</b></td><td></td><td><b>4.3</b></td></tr></tbody></table><h4><b>经济护城河实力–5/5</b></h4>苹果得了5分。苹果是一个明显的领导者，具有非凡的竞争优势。他们的竞争优势源于技术优势、转换成本和网络效应。</blockquote></p><p><h4><b>Financial Strength - 4/5</b></h4>Apple has $51.5 B in cash and a high covered ratio (45.13x), but their liquidity (current ratio at 0.93x and quick ratio of 0.76x) is in line with the sector.</p><p><blockquote><h4><b>财务实力–4/5</b></h4>苹果拥有$51.5 B现金和较高的覆盖率(45.13倍)，但其流动性（流动比率为0.93倍，速动比率为0.76倍）与行业一致。</blockquote></p><p><h4><b>Growth Rate - 3/5</b></h4>Apple is growing at a pace consistent with their overall industry. Apple’s most recent annual revenue growth was 18.63% (vs. sector median of 19.98%). Given their leadership position and strong revenue, these revenue growth numbers are great. However, compared to hyper growth companies in the start-up or ramping-up phase with 50-60% growth rates, it’s hard to give out 4 or 5 stars.</p><p><blockquote><h4><b>增长率-3/5</b></h4>苹果的增长速度与整个行业一致。苹果最近的年收入增长率为18.63%（行业中位数为19.98%）。鉴于他们的领导地位和强劲的收入，这些收入增长数字非常可观。然而，与处于初创或加速阶段、增长率为50-60%的高速增长公司相比，很难给出4星或5星。</blockquote></p><p><h4><b>Margin of Safety - 5/5</b></h4>Apple is trading ~25% under intrinsic value at this point. The ongoing market volatility and tech sector struggles are providing a great opportunity to grab Apple’s shares under intrinsic value. Their P/E ratio is below pre-pandemic level, which just doesn&#39;t make sense.</p><p><blockquote><h4><b>安全裕度-5/5</b></h4>目前，苹果的交易价格比内在价值低约25%。持续的市场波动和科技行业的困境为以内在价值抢占苹果股票提供了绝佳机会。他们的市盈率低于大流行前的水平，这没有意义。</blockquote></p><p><h4><b>Sector Outlook - 4/5</b></h4>The tech sector will keep on growing at a rapid pace with new technology and markets, but the smartphone and laptop segments won’t be the fastest growing segment in tech. There will be adequate, but not exceptional, growth.</p><p><blockquote><h4><b>行业展望-4/5</b></h4>随着新技术和市场的出现，科技行业将继续快速增长，但智能手机和笔记本电脑领域不会是科技领域增长最快的领域。将会有足够的增长，但不是异常的增长。</blockquote></p><p><h2>Risk</h2>Apple&#39;s main segment is still the iPhone, and competition within the smartphone market is only increasing and getting complex. Also, consumer preference is diversifying in terms of preferred features (camera quality, computing/memory performance, weight/size, etc.). The iPhone family still commands a leadership position based on technological superiority, switching cost, and brand image, so I don&#39;t expect Apple to struggle. However, I wouldn&#39;t expect large growth from the iPhone segment in the future.</p><p><blockquote><h2>风险</h2>苹果的主要细分市场仍然是iPhone，智能手机市场的竞争只会越来越复杂。此外，消费者偏好在优选特征（相机质量、计算/内存性能、重量/尺寸等）方面正在多样化。基于技术优势、转换成本和品牌形象，iPhone家族仍然占据着领导地位，所以我不认为苹果会陷入困境。然而，我预计iPhone市场未来不会出现大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5030495bf9b76a7a51f6dd535431666c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"370\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Global Smartphone Market Share (Counterpoint)</p><p><blockquote>全球智能手机市场份额（Counterpoint）</blockquote></p><p>As mentioned before, Apple has been moving towards self-sufficiency by manufacturing their own parts. So far, the effort has impacted the business in a positive way by improving margins and mitigating supply chain disruption. However, relying on their own parts can result in isolation, lower technological development, and less market penetration. One example is the Japanese cellphone makers (Panasonic, Sharp, or NEC). They were way ahead in terms of innovation, but they failed to achieve global success. This is an extreme case, and I don&#39;t expect this will be the problem for Apple. However, investors should monitor whether Apple is maintaining its cutting-edge technology as they transition towards being more self-sufficient.</p><p><blockquote>如前所述，苹果一直在通过制造自己的零部件走向自给自足。到目前为止，这一努力通过提高利润率和缓解供应链中断对业务产生了积极影响。然而，依赖自己的零件会导致孤立、技术发展较低和市场渗透率较低。一个例子是日本手机制造商（松下、夏普或NEC）。他们在创新方面遥遥领先，但未能取得全球成功。这是一个极端的案例，我不认为这会是苹果的问题。然而，投资者应该关注苹果在向更加自给自足过渡的过程中是否保持了其尖端技术。</blockquote></p><p></p><p><h2>Conclusion</h2>Apple has been an outstanding investment for a couple of decades at this point. Their technological superiority, brand image, and switching cost provide a great economic moat, and new products and services will keep their growth engine running. Based on their strong financials and market leading position, I expect Apple to excel in the foreseeable future. I expect 20-30% upside.</p><p><blockquote><h2>结论</h2>几十年来，苹果一直是一项出色的投资。他们的技术优势、品牌形象和转换成本提供了巨大的经济护城河，新产品和服务将使他们的增长引擎保持运转。基于其强大的财务状况和市场领先地位，我预计苹果在可预见的未来将表现出色。我预计有20-30%的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: One Big Time Sale<blockquote>苹果：一次大促销</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: One Big Time Sale<blockquote>苹果：一次大促销</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-05-16 23:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><h2>Investment Thesis</h2>Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) designs, manufactures, and distributes smartphones, personal computers, wearables, and related services. Apple has been <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the most valuable companies in the world for a while and has leadership positions in numerous fields. Its massive installed device base (1.8B active devices) is pushing Apple&#39;s service revenue upwards at a rapid pace, and the overall company&#39;s profit margin is also improving. Furthermore, Apple is moving to become self-sufficient to reduce costs and mitigate supply chain disruptions, and the effort has been paying off. I expect Apple to continue its success well into the future, and the current volatility in the tech sector is presenting a huge opportunity to grab Apple shares at a discount because:</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body><h2>投资论文</h2>苹果（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）设计、制造和分销智能手机、个人电脑、可穿戴设备和相关服务。苹果已经<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>并在众多领域占据领导地位。其庞大的安装设备基础（1.8 B活跃设备）正在推动苹果的服务收入快速上升，公司整体利润率也在改善。此外，苹果正在走向自给自足，以降低成本并缓解供应链中断，这一努力已经得到了回报。我预计苹果将在未来继续取得成功，而当前科技行业的波动为以折扣价抢购苹果股票提供了巨大的机会，因为：</body></html></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Apple&#39;s high margin businesses (Mac and Service segments) are growing at a rapid pace, contributing to great revenue growth and margin expansion.</li><li>Revenue growth trajectory remains solid with an increasing subscription base and new product releases (iPad Air, iPhone SE, and etc.).</li><li>The market volatility and tech sector sell-off dragged Apple&#39;s stock down, and it is now being sold under its pre-pandemic level. This presents a great opportunity.</li></ul><h3>Growing in Right Segments</h3>Since I wrote my last article, Apple reported quarterly earnings in late April, and the results continue to demonstrate that Apple is focusing on the correct segments for growth and profitability. Overall revenue grew 9% YoY to $97.3 B, and they generated a whopping $28 B operating cash flow. Particularly, their Mac segment and services segment led the charge.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果的高利润业务（Mac和服务部门）正在快速增长，为收入增长和利润扩张做出了巨大贡献。</li><li>随着订阅基础的增加和新产品的发布（iPad Air、iPhone SE等），收入增长轨迹保持稳健。</li><li>市场波动和科技行业抛售拖累苹果股价下跌，目前其售价低于大流行前的水平。这提供了一个很好的机会。</li></ul><h3>在正确的细分市场增长</h3>自从我写上一篇文章以来，苹果于四月下旬公布了季度收益，结果继续表明苹果正在专注于正确的增长和盈利领域。整体收入同比增长9%至$97.3 B，并产生了高达$28B的运营现金流。特别是，他们的Mac部门和服务部门处于领先地位。</blockquote></p><p>Apple has been working on becoming self-sufficient and manufacturing key product components internally. A couple of years ago Apple took the noteworthy action of severing ties with Intel and making their own computer chips. The effort has been paying a great dividend. The Apple M1 (their own chip) has been performing very well against Intel and other chips on the market, and Mac sales have been very strong. Additionally, producing their own chips boosted the profit margins on Mac products.</p><p><blockquote>苹果一直致力于实现自给自足，并在内部制造关键产品部件。几年前，苹果采取了一项值得注意的行动，切断了与英特尔的联系，并制造了自己的计算机芯片。这一努力获得了巨大的回报。苹果M1（他们自己的芯片）与英特尔和市场上的其他芯片相比表现非常好，Mac的销售也非常强劲。此外，生产自己的芯片提高了Mac产品的利润率。</blockquote></p><p>Strong performance by Apple Services segment (advertising, AppleCare, Cloud, Digital Content, Payment) is also welcome news for investors. The services segment is a 2x higher gross margin business (72.6%) than the products segment (36.4%), and it has higher growth potential from cloud and digital content. Assisted by its massive installed device base (1.8 B active devices), AppleCare has great potential for increasing revenue as well. Overall, the strong performance from Mac and Services shows that there are good days ahead.</p><p><blockquote>苹果服务部门（广告、AppleCare、云、数字内容、支付）的强劲表现对投资者来说也是个好消息。服务部门的毛利率（72.6%）是产品部门（36.4%）的两倍，并且云和数字内容具有更高的增长潜力。得益于其庞大的已安装设备基础（1.8 B活跃设备），AppleCare也具有巨大的收入增长潜力。总体而言，Mac和服务的强劲表现表明未来的日子会很好。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141d5a91e5df23365dae251e9bab5e0b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"187\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Performance by Segments (SEC Filings)</p><p><blockquote>按部门划分的业绩（SEC文件）</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/121762b45f7dec13cf921113a187da10\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"184\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Gross Margins of Apple by Segments (SEC Filings)</p><p><blockquote>按细分市场划分的苹果毛利率（SEC文件）</blockquote></p><p><h4>Strong Revenue Growth Trajectory</h4>Apple has been growing at a solid pace (10% per year, 5-year average) in the past several years, and the revenue growth is accelerating. This acceleration is due to multiple factors. The first one is the continuing strong performance from new products, and there is no sign that this trend is going to end. During the last quarter, Apple released iPhone SE with 5 G technology, iPad Air with M1 chip, all-new Mac Studio, and all-new Apple Studio Display.</p><p><blockquote><h4>强劲的收入增长轨迹</h4>苹果在过去几年中一直以稳健的速度增长（每年10%，5年平均），并且收入增长正在加速。这种加速是由多种因素造成的。首先是新产品的持续强劲表现，而且没有迹象表明这种趋势即将结束。上个季度，苹果发布了采用5G技术的iPhone SE、采用M1芯片的iPad Air、全新的Mac Studio和全新的苹果Studio显示屏。</blockquote></p><p>As mentioned before, Apple currently has 1.8 B active device bases, and the number is expected to grow with the release of new products. The active base has been growing at about 100-150 million per year (1.4 B, 1.5 B, 1.65 B, and 1.8 B in 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022, respectively). Also, this larger installed base will translate into greater revenue growth from AppleCare, advertising, and cloud services. Currently, Apple has about 785 M subscribers to these services.</p><p><blockquote>如前所述，苹果目前拥有1.8 B个有源器件底座，预计随着新产品的发布，数量还会增长。活跃基数一直在以每年约1亿至1.5亿的速度增长（2019年、2020年、2021年和2022年分别为1.4 B、1.5 B、16.5 B和1.8 B）。此外，更大的安装基础将转化为AppleCare、广告和云服务的更大收入增长。目前，苹果拥有约7.85亿这些服务的用户。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac35dc5d8146da0ab3d88270dbc0b6db\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote></p><p><h4>Favorable Valuation Thanks to Volatility</h4>Ongoing volatility caused by supply chain disruption, inflation, war, and Federal Reserve&#39;s changing policies dragged the whole tech sector severely down. Nasdaq index is down from 16,000 in November 2021 to below 12,000. This volatility dragged great companies like Apple along, and now Apple stock is trading below its pre-pandemic level (current P/E ratio of 23.8x vs. pre-pandemic P/E around 25.5x). This presents a great opportunity for investors to grab Apple shares at a bargain.</p><p><blockquote><h4>波动性带来有利的估值</h4>供应链中断、通货膨胀、战争和美联储政策变化造成的持续波动严重拖累了整个科技行业。纳斯达克指数从2021年11月的16,000点降至12,000点以下。这种波动拖累了像苹果这样的伟大公司，现在苹果股票的交易价格低于大流行前的水平（当前市盈率为23.8倍，而大流行前市盈率约为25.5倍）。这为投资者提供了低价买入苹果股票的绝佳机会。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60f28dab37b8c21b885a326a9994c721\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Nasdaq Index (CNBC)</p><p><blockquote>纳斯达克指数(CNBC)</blockquote></p><p></p><p><h2>Intrinsic Value Estimation</h2>I used DCF model to estimate the intrinsic value of Apple. For the estimation, I utilized current EBITDA ($130 B) as a proxy for cash flow and WACC of 9.0% as the discount rate. For the base case, I assumed EBITDA growth of 20% (Sector median) for the next 5 years and zero growth afterwards (zero terminal growth). For the bullish and very bullish case, I assumed EBITDA growth of 22% and 24%, respectively, for the next 5 years and zero growth afterwards.</p><p><blockquote><h2>内在价值估计</h2>我使用DCF模型来估计苹果的内在价值。为了进行估计，我使用当前的EBITDA($130 B)作为现金流的代表，并使用9.0%的WACC作为贴现率。对于基本情况，我假设未来5年EBITDA增长20%（行业中位数），之后为零增长（终端零增长）。对于看涨和非常看涨的情况，我假设未来5年EBITDA分别增长22%和24%，之后为零增长。</blockquote></p><p>The estimation revealed that the current stock price presents 20-30% upside. Given their technological superiority, organic/inorganic growth, and market dominance, I expect them to achieve this upside with ease.</p><p><blockquote>估计显示，目前股价有20-30%的上涨空间。鉴于他们的技术优势、有机/无机增长和市场主导地位，我预计他们将轻松实现这一优势。</blockquote></p><p><table><tbody><tr><td></td><td>Price Target</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td></td><td>价格目标</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td><td>Upside</p><p><blockquote><td>上行</td></blockquote></p><p></td></tr><tr><td>Base Case</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>基本情况</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td><td>$170.23</p><p><blockquote><td>$170.23</td></blockquote></p><p></td><td>16%</p><p><blockquote><td>16%</td></blockquote></p><p></td></tr><tr><td>Bullish Case</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>看涨案例</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td><td>$182.92</p><p><blockquote><td>$182.92</td></blockquote></p><p></td><td>24%</p><p><blockquote><td>24%</td></blockquote></p><p></td></tr><tr><td>Very Bullish Case</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>非常乐观的案例</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td><td>$196.41</p><p><blockquote><td>$196.41</td></blockquote></p><p></td><td>34%</p><p><blockquote><td>34%</td></blockquote></p><p></td></tr></tbody></table>The assumptions and data used for the price target estimation are summarized below:</p><p><blockquote>用于价格目标估计的假设及数据概述如下：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>WACC: 9.0%</li><li>EBITDA Growth Rate: 20% (Base Case), 22% (Bullish Case), 24% (Very Bullish Case)</li><li>Current EBITDA: $130 B</li><li>Current Stock Price: $147.11 (05/14/2022)</li><li>Tax rate: 20%</li></ul><h2>Cappuccino Stock Rating</h2>The details of the metric is explained in this article.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>WACC：9.0%</li><li>EBITDA增长率：20%（基本情况）、22%（看涨情况）、24%（非常看涨情况）</li><li>当前EBITDA：$130 B</li><li>现时股价：$147.11(05/14/2022)</li><li>税率：20%</li></ul><h2>卡布奇诺股票评级</h2>本文解释了该指标的细节。</blockquote></p><p><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td></td><td>Weighting</td><td>AAPL</td></tr><tr><td>Economic Moat Strength</td><td>30%</td><td>5</td></tr><tr><td>Financial Strength</td><td>30%</td><td>4</td></tr><tr><td>Growth Rate vs. Sector</td><td>15%</td><td>3</td></tr><tr><td>Margin of Safety</td><td>15%</td><td>5</td></tr><tr><td>Sector Outlook</td><td>10%</td><td>4</td></tr><tr><td><b>Overall</b></td><td></td><td><b>4.3</b></td></tr></tbody></table><h4><b>Economic Moat Strength - 5/5</b></h4>Apple gets 5 out of 5. Apple is a clear leader with exceptional competitive edge. Their competitive edge stems from technological superiority, switching costs, and network effects.</p><p><blockquote><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td></td><td>权重</td><td>AAPL</td></tr><tr><td>经济护城河实力</td><td>30%</td><td>5</td></tr><tr><td>财务实力</td><td>30%</td><td>4</td></tr><tr><td>增长率与行业</td><td>15%</td><td>3</td></tr><tr><td>安全边际</td><td>15%</td><td>5</td></tr><tr><td>行业展望</td><td>10%</td><td>4</td></tr><tr><td><b>总的</b></td><td></td><td><b>4.3</b></td></tr></tbody></table><h4><b>经济护城河实力–5/5</b></h4>苹果得了5分。苹果是一个明显的领导者，具有非凡的竞争优势。他们的竞争优势源于技术优势、转换成本和网络效应。</blockquote></p><p><h4><b>Financial Strength - 4/5</b></h4>Apple has $51.5 B in cash and a high covered ratio (45.13x), but their liquidity (current ratio at 0.93x and quick ratio of 0.76x) is in line with the sector.</p><p><blockquote><h4><b>财务实力–4/5</b></h4>苹果拥有$51.5 B现金和较高的覆盖率(45.13倍)，但其流动性（流动比率为0.93倍，速动比率为0.76倍）与行业一致。</blockquote></p><p><h4><b>Growth Rate - 3/5</b></h4>Apple is growing at a pace consistent with their overall industry. Apple’s most recent annual revenue growth was 18.63% (vs. sector median of 19.98%). Given their leadership position and strong revenue, these revenue growth numbers are great. However, compared to hyper growth companies in the start-up or ramping-up phase with 50-60% growth rates, it’s hard to give out 4 or 5 stars.</p><p><blockquote><h4><b>增长率-3/5</b></h4>苹果的增长速度与整个行业一致。苹果最近的年收入增长率为18.63%（行业中位数为19.98%）。鉴于他们的领导地位和强劲的收入，这些收入增长数字非常可观。然而，与处于初创或加速阶段、增长率为50-60%的高速增长公司相比，很难给出4星或5星。</blockquote></p><p><h4><b>Margin of Safety - 5/5</b></h4>Apple is trading ~25% under intrinsic value at this point. The ongoing market volatility and tech sector struggles are providing a great opportunity to grab Apple’s shares under intrinsic value. Their P/E ratio is below pre-pandemic level, which just doesn&#39;t make sense.</p><p><blockquote><h4><b>安全裕度-5/5</b></h4>目前，苹果的交易价格比内在价值低约25%。持续的市场波动和科技行业的困境为以内在价值抢占苹果股票提供了绝佳机会。他们的市盈率低于大流行前的水平，这没有意义。</blockquote></p><p><h4><b>Sector Outlook - 4/5</b></h4>The tech sector will keep on growing at a rapid pace with new technology and markets, but the smartphone and laptop segments won’t be the fastest growing segment in tech. There will be adequate, but not exceptional, growth.</p><p><blockquote><h4><b>行业展望-4/5</b></h4>随着新技术和市场的出现，科技行业将继续快速增长，但智能手机和笔记本电脑领域不会是科技领域增长最快的领域。将会有足够的增长，但不是异常的增长。</blockquote></p><p><h2>Risk</h2>Apple&#39;s main segment is still the iPhone, and competition within the smartphone market is only increasing and getting complex. Also, consumer preference is diversifying in terms of preferred features (camera quality, computing/memory performance, weight/size, etc.). The iPhone family still commands a leadership position based on technological superiority, switching cost, and brand image, so I don&#39;t expect Apple to struggle. However, I wouldn&#39;t expect large growth from the iPhone segment in the future.</p><p><blockquote><h2>风险</h2>苹果的主要细分市场仍然是iPhone，智能手机市场的竞争只会越来越复杂。此外，消费者偏好在优选特征（相机质量、计算/内存性能、重量/尺寸等）方面正在多样化。基于技术优势、转换成本和品牌形象，iPhone家族仍然占据着领导地位，所以我不认为苹果会陷入困境。然而，我预计iPhone市场未来不会出现大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5030495bf9b76a7a51f6dd535431666c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"370\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Global Smartphone Market Share (Counterpoint)</p><p><blockquote>全球智能手机市场份额（Counterpoint）</blockquote></p><p>As mentioned before, Apple has been moving towards self-sufficiency by manufacturing their own parts. So far, the effort has impacted the business in a positive way by improving margins and mitigating supply chain disruption. However, relying on their own parts can result in isolation, lower technological development, and less market penetration. One example is the Japanese cellphone makers (Panasonic, Sharp, or NEC). They were way ahead in terms of innovation, but they failed to achieve global success. This is an extreme case, and I don&#39;t expect this will be the problem for Apple. However, investors should monitor whether Apple is maintaining its cutting-edge technology as they transition towards being more self-sufficient.</p><p><blockquote>如前所述，苹果一直在通过制造自己的零部件走向自给自足。到目前为止，这一努力通过提高利润率和缓解供应链中断对业务产生了积极影响。然而，依赖自己的零件会导致孤立、技术发展较低和市场渗透率较低。一个例子是日本手机制造商（松下、夏普或NEC）。他们在创新方面遥遥领先，但未能取得全球成功。这是一个极端的案例，我不认为这会是苹果的问题。然而，投资者应该关注苹果在向更加自给自足过渡的过程中是否保持了其尖端技术。</blockquote></p><p></p><p><h2>Conclusion</h2>Apple has been an outstanding investment for a couple of decades at this point. Their technological superiority, brand image, and switching cost provide a great economic moat, and new products and services will keep their growth engine running. Based on their strong financials and market leading position, I expect Apple to excel in the foreseeable future. I expect 20-30% upside.</p><p><blockquote><h2>结论</h2>几十年来，苹果一直是一项出色的投资。他们的技术优势、品牌形象和转换成本提供了巨大的经济护城河，新产品和服务将使他们的增长引擎保持运转。基于其强大的财务状况和市场领先地位，我预计苹果在可预见的未来将表现出色。我预计有20-30%的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4511930-apple-one-big-time-sale\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4511930-apple-one-big-time-sale","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2235798704","content_text":"Investment ThesisApple (NASDAQ:AAPL) designs, manufactures, and distributes smartphones, personal computers, wearables, and related services. Apple has been one of the most valuable companies in the world for a while and has leadership positions in numerous fields. Its massive installed device base (1.8B active devices) is pushing Apple's service revenue upwards at a rapid pace, and the overall company's profit margin is also improving. Furthermore, Apple is moving to become self-sufficient to reduce costs and mitigate supply chain disruptions, and the effort has been paying off. I expect Apple to continue its success well into the future, and the current volatility in the tech sector is presenting a huge opportunity to grab Apple shares at a discount because:Apple's high margin businesses (Mac and Service segments) are growing at a rapid pace, contributing to great revenue growth and margin expansion.Revenue growth trajectory remains solid with an increasing subscription base and new product releases (iPad Air, iPhone SE, and etc.).The market volatility and tech sector sell-off dragged Apple's stock down, and it is now being sold under its pre-pandemic level. This presents a great opportunity.Growing in Right SegmentsSince I wrote my last article, Apple reported quarterly earnings in late April, and the results continue to demonstrate that Apple is focusing on the correct segments for growth and profitability. Overall revenue grew 9% YoY to $97.3 B, and they generated a whopping $28 B operating cash flow. Particularly, their Mac segment and services segment led the charge.Apple has been working on becoming self-sufficient and manufacturing key product components internally. A couple of years ago Apple took the noteworthy action of severing ties with Intel and making their own computer chips. The effort has been paying a great dividend. The Apple M1 (their own chip) has been performing very well against Intel and other chips on the market, and Mac sales have been very strong. Additionally, producing their own chips boosted the profit margins on Mac products.Strong performance by Apple Services segment (advertising, AppleCare, Cloud, Digital Content, Payment) is also welcome news for investors. The services segment is a 2x higher gross margin business (72.6%) than the products segment (36.4%), and it has higher growth potential from cloud and digital content. Assisted by its massive installed device base (1.8 B active devices), AppleCare has great potential for increasing revenue as well. Overall, the strong performance from Mac and Services shows that there are good days ahead.Performance by Segments (SEC Filings)Gross Margins of Apple by Segments (SEC Filings)Strong Revenue Growth TrajectoryApple has been growing at a solid pace (10% per year, 5-year average) in the past several years, and the revenue growth is accelerating. This acceleration is due to multiple factors. The first one is the continuing strong performance from new products, and there is no sign that this trend is going to end. During the last quarter, Apple released iPhone SE with 5 G technology, iPad Air with M1 chip, all-new Mac Studio, and all-new Apple Studio Display.As mentioned before, Apple currently has 1.8 B active device bases, and the number is expected to grow with the release of new products. The active base has been growing at about 100-150 million per year (1.4 B, 1.5 B, 1.65 B, and 1.8 B in 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022, respectively). Also, this larger installed base will translate into greater revenue growth from AppleCare, advertising, and cloud services. Currently, Apple has about 785 M subscribers to these services.Data by YChartsFavorable Valuation Thanks to VolatilityOngoing volatility caused by supply chain disruption, inflation, war, and Federal Reserve's changing policies dragged the whole tech sector severely down. Nasdaq index is down from 16,000 in November 2021 to below 12,000. This volatility dragged great companies like Apple along, and now Apple stock is trading below its pre-pandemic level (current P/E ratio of 23.8x vs. pre-pandemic P/E around 25.5x). This presents a great opportunity for investors to grab Apple shares at a bargain.Nasdaq Index (CNBC)Intrinsic Value EstimationI used DCF model to estimate the intrinsic value of Apple. For the estimation, I utilized current EBITDA ($130 B) as a proxy for cash flow and WACC of 9.0% as the discount rate. For the base case, I assumed EBITDA growth of 20% (Sector median) for the next 5 years and zero growth afterwards (zero terminal growth). For the bullish and very bullish case, I assumed EBITDA growth of 22% and 24%, respectively, for the next 5 years and zero growth afterwards.The estimation revealed that the current stock price presents 20-30% upside. Given their technological superiority, organic/inorganic growth, and market dominance, I expect them to achieve this upside with ease.Price TargetUpsideBase Case$170.2316%Bullish Case$182.9224%Very Bullish Case$196.4134%The assumptions and data used for the price target estimation are summarized below:WACC: 9.0%EBITDA Growth Rate: 20% (Base Case), 22% (Bullish Case), 24% (Very Bullish Case)Current EBITDA: $130 BCurrent Stock Price: $147.11 (05/14/2022)Tax rate: 20%Cappuccino Stock RatingThe details of the metric is explained in this article.WeightingAAPLEconomic Moat Strength30%5Financial Strength30%4Growth Rate vs. Sector15%3Margin of Safety15%5Sector Outlook10%4Overall4.3Economic Moat Strength - 5/5Apple gets 5 out of 5. Apple is a clear leader with exceptional competitive edge. Their competitive edge stems from technological superiority, switching costs, and network effects.Financial Strength - 4/5Apple has $51.5 B in cash and a high covered ratio (45.13x), but their liquidity (current ratio at 0.93x and quick ratio of 0.76x) is in line with the sector.Growth Rate - 3/5Apple is growing at a pace consistent with their overall industry. Apple’s most recent annual revenue growth was 18.63% (vs. sector median of 19.98%). Given their leadership position and strong revenue, these revenue growth numbers are great. However, compared to hyper growth companies in the start-up or ramping-up phase with 50-60% growth rates, it’s hard to give out 4 or 5 stars.Margin of Safety - 5/5Apple is trading ~25% under intrinsic value at this point. The ongoing market volatility and tech sector struggles are providing a great opportunity to grab Apple’s shares under intrinsic value. Their P/E ratio is below pre-pandemic level, which just doesn't make sense.Sector Outlook - 4/5The tech sector will keep on growing at a rapid pace with new technology and markets, but the smartphone and laptop segments won’t be the fastest growing segment in tech. There will be adequate, but not exceptional, growth.RiskApple's main segment is still the iPhone, and competition within the smartphone market is only increasing and getting complex. Also, consumer preference is diversifying in terms of preferred features (camera quality, computing/memory performance, weight/size, etc.). The iPhone family still commands a leadership position based on technological superiority, switching cost, and brand image, so I don't expect Apple to struggle. However, I wouldn't expect large growth from the iPhone segment in the future.Global Smartphone Market Share (Counterpoint)As mentioned before, Apple has been moving towards self-sufficiency by manufacturing their own parts. So far, the effort has impacted the business in a positive way by improving margins and mitigating supply chain disruption. However, relying on their own parts can result in isolation, lower technological development, and less market penetration. One example is the Japanese cellphone makers (Panasonic, Sharp, or NEC). They were way ahead in terms of innovation, but they failed to achieve global success. This is an extreme case, and I don't expect this will be the problem for Apple. However, investors should monitor whether Apple is maintaining its cutting-edge technology as they transition towards being more self-sufficient.ConclusionApple has been an outstanding investment for a couple of decades at this point. Their technological superiority, brand image, and switching cost provide a great economic moat, and new products and services will keep their growth engine running. Based on their strong financials and market leading position, I expect Apple to excel in the foreseeable future. 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