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CK11

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2021-12-23

Good.

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2021-12-18

Like MSFT

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2021-12-11

Is this an opportunity?

Grab shares dropped another 9% in morning trading<blockquote>Grab 股价在早盘交易中又下跌 9%</blockquote>

2021-08-26

Ok

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2021-07-03

Excited..

Can Alibaba Turn Around Its Woes in the Second Half of 2021?<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW能在2021年下半年扭转困境吗？</blockquote>

2021-06-22

Come again..

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2021-06-18

Baba is innovative company..

Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>

2021-06-17

Good new for market.

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2021-06-16

Oh really?

3 Reasons Tech Stocks May Continue To Struggle<blockquote>科技股可能继续陷入困境的 3 个原因</blockquote>

2021-06-14

Grab app offer a lot of stuff now..

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2021-06-13

Pfizer look good.

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2021-06-12

When share price drop 70 - 80% speculator can become long term investor as well.

Investor, Trader, Speculator: Which One Are You?<blockquote>投资者、交易者、投机者：你是哪一个？</blockquote>

2021-06-11

Phone =iPhone & EV car =.....?

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2021-06-10

No wonder hacker still around..

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2021-06-09

MSFT still a growth story.

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2021-06-08

Don't be so serious..

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2021-06-07

Is this a good new?

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2021-06-05

MSFT.

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2021-06-04

EV is for long term.

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2021-06-02

The world take times to go back to normal life..

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去老虎APP查看更多动态

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MSFT","listText":"Like MSFT","text":"Like MSFT","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699604041","repostId":"2192973737","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3652,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":605214203,"gmtCreate":1639180761606,"gmtModify":1639180765977,"author":{"id":"3581899057268262","authorId":"3581899057268262","name":"CK11","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0923eb4b52245eb1bf4d6c510566f9f5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581899057268262","idStr":"3581899057268262"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Is this an opportunity?&nbsp;","listText":"Is this an opportunity?&nbsp;","text":"Is this an opportunity?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":13,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/605214203","repostId":"1134450838","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1134450838","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1639148939,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1134450838?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-10 23:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Grab shares dropped another 9% in morning trading<blockquote>Grab 股价在早盘交易中又下跌 9%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134450838","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Grab shares dropped another 9% in morning trading after falling more than 9% yesterday.","content":"<p>Grab shares dropped another 9% in morning trading after falling more than 9% yesterday.</p><p><blockquote>继昨天下跌超过 9% 后，Grab 股价在早盘交易中又下跌 9%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/963eb8dd73ce8daa0d852d63f0bcc276\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Grab shares dropped another 9% in morning trading<blockquote>Grab 股价在早盘交易中又下跌 9%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGrab shares dropped another 9% in morning trading<blockquote>Grab 股价在早盘交易中又下跌 9%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-10 23:08</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Grab shares dropped another 9% in morning trading after falling more than 9% yesterday.</p><p><blockquote>继昨天下跌超过 9% 后，Grab 股价在早盘交易中又下跌 9%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/963eb8dd73ce8daa0d852d63f0bcc276\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GRAB":"Grab Holdings"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1134450838","content_text":"Grab shares dropped another 9% in morning trading after falling more than 9% yesterday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GRAB":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4059,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":810950799,"gmtCreate":1629940699311,"gmtModify":1633681305457,"author":{"id":"3581899057268262","authorId":"3581899057268262","name":"CK11","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0923eb4b52245eb1bf4d6c510566f9f5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581899057268262","idStr":"3581899057268262"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/810950799","repostId":"1197778368","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2617,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152242901,"gmtCreate":1625302572303,"gmtModify":1633941589974,"author":{"id":"3581899057268262","authorId":"3581899057268262","name":"CK11","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0923eb4b52245eb1bf4d6c510566f9f5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581899057268262","idStr":"3581899057268262"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Excited..&nbsp;","listText":"Excited..&nbsp;","text":"Excited..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":27,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/152242901","repostId":"1146176335","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146176335","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625277627,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1146176335?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-03 10:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can Alibaba Turn Around Its Woes in the Second Half of 2021?<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW能在2021年下半年扭转困境吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146176335","media":"The Street","summary":"Alibaba has been a sore laggard compared with its large- and mega-cap peers. Can that change in the second half of 2021?Alibaba  -Get Report has been a total dog so far this year. Shares were trading well into the fourth quarter of 2020 but then a string of issues pummeled the stock.Regulators disrupted Ant's initial public offering, then dug deeper on Alibaba and dialed up the heat.Investors don’t like regulatory issues as it is but particularly when we’re dealing with Chinese regulators.Howeve","content":"<p>  Alibaba has been a sore laggard compared with its large- and mega-cap peers. Can that change in the second half of 2021?  Alibaba&nbsp;(<b>BABA</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;has been a total dog so far this year. Shares were trading well into the fourth quarter of 2020 but then a string of issues pummeled the stock.</p><p><blockquote>与大型和超大型同行相比，阿里巴巴-SW一直处于严重落后状态。这种情况会在2021年下半年改变吗？阿里巴巴-SW（<b>爸爸</b>) -Get Report 今年到目前为止一直很糟糕。股票交易一直持续到 2020 年第四季度，但随后一系列问题重创了该股。</blockquote></p><p> Regulators disrupted Ant's initial public offering, then dug deeper on Alibaba and dialed up the heat.</p><p><blockquote>监管机构扰乱了蚂蚁的首次公开募股，然后更深入地挖掘了阿里巴巴-SW并提高了热度。</blockquote></p><p> Investors don’t like regulatory issues as it is but particularly when we’re dealing with Chinese regulators.</p><p><blockquote>投资者不喜欢监管问题，尤其是在我们与中国监管机构打交道时。</blockquote></p><p> However, in April, Alibaba paid a smaller-than-expectedbut still record fine, hoping to puts its regulatory issues behind it. Still, the stock hasn’t responded the way bulls were hoping.</p><p><blockquote>然而，4月份，阿里巴巴-SW支付了低于预期但仍创纪录的罚款，希望将其监管问题抛诸脑后。尽管如此，该股的反应并未如多头所希望的那样。</blockquote></p><p> All of this comes as the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq continue to grind outnew all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>所有这一切都发生在标普500和纳斯达克继续突破历史新高之际。</blockquote></p><p> It also comes as FAANG stocks continue to trade incredibly well. Alphabet&nbsp;(<b>GOOGL</b>) -Get Reportis the top performerwith a near-40% gain in the first half of the year, while Netflix&nbsp;(<b>NFLX</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;is the worst, with a 2.3% drop.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，FAANG 股票继续表现令人难以置信的良好。Alphabet（<b>GOOGL</b>) - Get Reportis 是表现最好的公司，上半年涨幅接近 40%，而 Netflix (<b>NFLX</b>) -Get Report 最差，下降了 2.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has a similar first-half performance, down 2.6%. However, it’s doing far worse from the highs, down more than 30%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW上半年表现类似，下跌2.6%。然而，它的表现比高点要糟糕得多，下跌了 30% 以上。</blockquote></p><p> Can it turn around its woes in the second half and start rallying higher?</p><p><blockquote>它能否在下半年扭转颓势并开始走高？</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9975f383919ff8cfc34fca49a32d8e8f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"494\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Call me a hopeless optimist, but I feel that Alibaba can have a solid second-half performance.</p><p><blockquote>看涨期权对我来说是一个绝望的乐观主义者，但我觉得阿里巴巴-SW下半场可以有稳定的表现。</blockquote></p><p> The overall market has done too well and so has large-cap tech. The fundamentals of the business are intact and growth is strong. It’s like Amazon&nbsp;(<b>AMZN</b>) -Get Report.Eventually, it will perform better&nbsp;- it’s a question of “when” and not “if.”</p><p><blockquote>整体市场表现太好了，大型科技股也是如此。业务基本面完好无损，增长强劲。这就像亚马逊（<b>亚马逊</b>)-获取报告。最终，它的表现会更好--这是一个 “何时 ”的问题，而不是 “是否 ”的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Shares continue to hold the $210 to $212 area and have recently cleared downtrend resistance (blue line). That said, there’s plenty of overhead hurdles.</p><p><blockquote>股价继续保持在 210 美元至 212 美元区域，并最近清除了下降趋势阻力（蓝线）。尽管如此，仍有很多障碍。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, Alibaba stock is struggling with the 21-week moving average, as well as the 21-month and 10-month moving averages.</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，阿里巴巴-SW股票正在与 21 周移动平均线以及 21 个月和 10 个月移动平均线作斗争。</blockquote></p><p> Let’s be clear: There are not a lot of bullish technical components here. If Alibaba stock could hold the 10-week moving average on this week’s dip, I’d feel better about it.</p><p><blockquote>让我们明确一点：这里没有太多看涨的技术成分。如果阿里巴巴-SW股市能在本周的下跌中守住 10 周移动平均线，我会感觉更好。</blockquote></p><p> However, as long as it can hold up over the $210 level and really, the 200-week moving average, I feel okay about Alibaba going into the next six months.</p><p><blockquote>然而，只要它能够保持在 210 美元的水平上方，实际上是 200 周移动平均线上方，我对阿里巴巴-SW未来六个月的走势感到满意。</blockquote></p><p> A push over $235 - thus putting it over all of the moving average hurdles mentioned above - could open up a run to $250, then $263. Above $275 and $300 is in play.</p><p><blockquote>突破 235 美元（从而突破上述所有移动平均线障碍）可能会上涨至 250 美元，然后上涨至 263 美元。275美元以上和300美元正在发挥作用。</blockquote></p><p> Keep the risk in mind but this could be a solid second-half rebound play.</p><p><blockquote>记住风险，但这可能是一个坚实的下半场反弹比赛。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610613172068","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can Alibaba Turn Around Its Woes in the Second Half of 2021?<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW能在2021年下半年扭转困境吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan Alibaba Turn Around Its Woes in the Second Half of 2021?<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW能在2021年下半年扭转困境吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Street</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-03 10:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  Alibaba has been a sore laggard compared with its large- and mega-cap peers. Can that change in the second half of 2021?  Alibaba&nbsp;(<b>BABA</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;has been a total dog so far this year. Shares were trading well into the fourth quarter of 2020 but then a string of issues pummeled the stock.</p><p><blockquote>与大型和超大型同行相比，阿里巴巴-SW一直处于严重落后状态。这种情况会在2021年下半年改变吗？阿里巴巴-SW（<b>爸爸</b>) -Get Report 今年到目前为止一直很糟糕。股票交易一直持续到 2020 年第四季度，但随后一系列问题重创了该股。</blockquote></p><p> Regulators disrupted Ant's initial public offering, then dug deeper on Alibaba and dialed up the heat.</p><p><blockquote>监管机构扰乱了蚂蚁的首次公开募股，然后更深入地挖掘了阿里巴巴-SW并提高了热度。</blockquote></p><p> Investors don’t like regulatory issues as it is but particularly when we’re dealing with Chinese regulators.</p><p><blockquote>投资者不喜欢监管问题，尤其是在我们与中国监管机构打交道时。</blockquote></p><p> However, in April, Alibaba paid a smaller-than-expectedbut still record fine, hoping to puts its regulatory issues behind it. Still, the stock hasn’t responded the way bulls were hoping.</p><p><blockquote>然而，4月份，阿里巴巴-SW支付了低于预期但仍创纪录的罚款，希望将其监管问题抛诸脑后。尽管如此，该股的反应并未如多头所希望的那样。</blockquote></p><p> All of this comes as the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq continue to grind outnew all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>所有这一切都发生在标普500和纳斯达克继续突破历史新高之际。</blockquote></p><p> It also comes as FAANG stocks continue to trade incredibly well. Alphabet&nbsp;(<b>GOOGL</b>) -Get Reportis the top performerwith a near-40% gain in the first half of the year, while Netflix&nbsp;(<b>NFLX</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;is the worst, with a 2.3% drop.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，FAANG 股票继续表现令人难以置信的良好。Alphabet（<b>GOOGL</b>) - Get Reportis 是表现最好的公司，上半年涨幅接近 40%，而 Netflix (<b>NFLX</b>) -Get Report 最差，下降了 2.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has a similar first-half performance, down 2.6%. However, it’s doing far worse from the highs, down more than 30%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW上半年表现类似，下跌2.6%。然而，它的表现比高点要糟糕得多，下跌了 30% 以上。</blockquote></p><p> Can it turn around its woes in the second half and start rallying higher?</p><p><blockquote>它能否在下半年扭转颓势并开始走高？</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9975f383919ff8cfc34fca49a32d8e8f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"494\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Call me a hopeless optimist, but I feel that Alibaba can have a solid second-half performance.</p><p><blockquote>看涨期权对我来说是一个绝望的乐观主义者，但我觉得阿里巴巴-SW下半场可以有稳定的表现。</blockquote></p><p> The overall market has done too well and so has large-cap tech. The fundamentals of the business are intact and growth is strong. It’s like Amazon&nbsp;(<b>AMZN</b>) -Get Report.Eventually, it will perform better&nbsp;- it’s a question of “when” and not “if.”</p><p><blockquote>整体市场表现太好了，大型科技股也是如此。业务基本面完好无损，增长强劲。这就像亚马逊（<b>亚马逊</b>)-获取报告。最终，它的表现会更好--这是一个 “何时 ”的问题，而不是 “是否 ”的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Shares continue to hold the $210 to $212 area and have recently cleared downtrend resistance (blue line). That said, there’s plenty of overhead hurdles.</p><p><blockquote>股价继续保持在 210 美元至 212 美元区域，并最近清除了下降趋势阻力（蓝线）。尽管如此，仍有很多障碍。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, Alibaba stock is struggling with the 21-week moving average, as well as the 21-month and 10-month moving averages.</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，阿里巴巴-SW股票正在与 21 周移动平均线以及 21 个月和 10 个月移动平均线作斗争。</blockquote></p><p> Let’s be clear: There are not a lot of bullish technical components here. If Alibaba stock could hold the 10-week moving average on this week’s dip, I’d feel better about it.</p><p><blockquote>让我们明确一点：这里没有太多看涨的技术成分。如果阿里巴巴-SW股市能在本周的下跌中守住 10 周移动平均线，我会感觉更好。</blockquote></p><p> However, as long as it can hold up over the $210 level and really, the 200-week moving average, I feel okay about Alibaba going into the next six months.</p><p><blockquote>然而，只要它能够保持在 210 美元的水平上方，实际上是 200 周移动平均线上方，我对阿里巴巴-SW未来六个月的走势感到满意。</blockquote></p><p> A push over $235 - thus putting it over all of the moving average hurdles mentioned above - could open up a run to $250, then $263. Above $275 and $300 is in play.</p><p><blockquote>突破 235 美元（从而突破上述所有移动平均线障碍）可能会上涨至 250 美元，然后上涨至 263 美元。275美元以上和300美元正在发挥作用。</blockquote></p><p> Keep the risk in mind but this could be a solid second-half rebound play.</p><p><blockquote>记住风险，但这可能是一个坚实的下半场反弹比赛。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/alibaba-baba-stock-second-half-2021-trading?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO\">The Street</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09618":"京东集团-SW"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/alibaba-baba-stock-second-half-2021-trading?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146176335","content_text":"Alibaba has been a sore laggard compared with its large- and mega-cap peers. Can that change in the second half of 2021?\n\nAlibaba (BABA) -Get Report has been a total dog so far this year. Shares were trading well into the fourth quarter of 2020 but then a string of issues pummeled the stock.\nRegulators disrupted Ant's initial public offering, then dug deeper on Alibaba and dialed up the heat.\nInvestors don’t like regulatory issues as it is but particularly when we’re dealing with Chinese regulators.\nHowever, in April, Alibaba paid a smaller-than-expectedbut still record fine, hoping to puts its regulatory issues behind it. Still, the stock hasn’t responded the way bulls were hoping.\nAll of this comes as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq continue to grind outnew all-time highs.\nIt also comes as FAANG stocks continue to trade incredibly well. Alphabet (GOOGL) -Get Reportis the top performerwith a near-40% gain in the first half of the year, while Netflix (NFLX) -Get Report is the worst, with a 2.3% drop.\nAlibaba has a similar first-half performance, down 2.6%. However, it’s doing far worse from the highs, down more than 30%.\nCan it turn around its woes in the second half and start rallying higher?\n\nCall me a hopeless optimist, but I feel that Alibaba can have a solid second-half performance.\nThe overall market has done too well and so has large-cap tech. The fundamentals of the business are intact and growth is strong. It’s like Amazon (AMZN) -Get Report.Eventually, it will perform better - it’s a question of “when” and not “if.”\nShares continue to hold the $210 to $212 area and have recently cleared downtrend resistance (blue line). That said, there’s plenty of overhead hurdles.\nSpecifically, Alibaba stock is struggling with the 21-week moving average, as well as the 21-month and 10-month moving averages.\nLet’s be clear: There are not a lot of bullish technical components here. If Alibaba stock could hold the 10-week moving average on this week’s dip, I’d feel better about it.\nHowever, as long as it can hold up over the $210 level and really, the 200-week moving average, I feel okay about Alibaba going into the next six months.\nA push over $235 - thus putting it over all of the moving average hurdles mentioned above - could open up a run to $250, then $263. Above $275 and $300 is in play.\nKeep the risk in mind but this could be a solid second-half rebound play.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9,"09618":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3231,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120204915,"gmtCreate":1624323597837,"gmtModify":1634007837209,"author":{"id":"3581899057268262","authorId":"3581899057268262","name":"CK11","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0923eb4b52245eb1bf4d6c510566f9f5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581899057268262","idStr":"3581899057268262"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Come again..&nbsp;","listText":"Come again..&nbsp;","text":"Come again..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":26,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120204915","repostId":"2145459036","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3549,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168547305,"gmtCreate":1623979655407,"gmtModify":1634024845989,"author":{"id":"3581899057268262","authorId":"3581899057268262","name":"CK11","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0923eb4b52245eb1bf4d6c510566f9f5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581899057268262","idStr":"3581899057268262"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Baba is innovative company..&nbsp;","listText":"Baba is innovative company..&nbsp;","text":"Baba is innovative company..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":28,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168547305","repostId":"1175693382","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175693382","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623978463,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1175693382?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 09:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175693382","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.</li>  <li>The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.</li>  <li>The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.</li>  <li>We discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e63c77d4f3f3dc3d618e43044638bb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Yongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW可能是目前最被低估的成长型股票。</li><li>该公司在快速扩张的市场中拥有多种增长动力，这使得其估值看起来更加令人困惑。</li><li>短期技术面可能会随着潜在的双底价格行动信号而转向看涨。</li><li>我们将讨论公司的多重增长动力，让投资者自己判断。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>戴永元/iStock 未通过 Getty Images 发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Technical Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术论文</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7febf6ed056b0e3bc038321cdaad9b1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba’s&nbsp;stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.</p><p><blockquote>自 11 月 20 日初蚂蚁金服 IPO 被撤销以来，阿里巴巴-SW的股价经历了可怕的 8 个月，该股在低迷中萎靡不振，较高点下跌了 34%。在考虑其长期上升趋势的健康状况时，很明显，阿里巴巴具有相对较强的上升趋势偏差，并且在其关键的 50W 均线上总体上得到了良好的支撑。在过去 4 年中，它唯一一次失去关键的 50W MA 支撑位是在 2018 年熊市期间，当时阿里巴巴下跌了约 40%，但仍在重要的 200W MA 上方得到良好支撑，我们通常认为这是 “最后一道防线”。现在阿里巴巴再次面临类似的情况：下跌34%，失去了50W MA，但看起来在200W MA以上得到了很好的支撑。除此之外，价格行为分析中的一个有趣观察可能会导致价格行为交易者/投资者特别看涨：潜在的双底形成。阿里巴巴的价格似乎正在经历双底，就像 2018 年熊市期间一样，随后强劲反弹。因此，阿里巴巴目前的水平可能是一个可能的技术性买入切入点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的基本论点：快速扩张的增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba49f5881708929949c30628eedc5d4\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"578\"><span>Annual GMV. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年度GMV。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6c4ed3e2402f5af52b2dea8bab411\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"517\"><span>Annual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年度电子商务收入。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴的GMV从1.68吨人民币增长到7.49吨人民币，仅用了7年时间，复合年增长率达到了23.8%，增长率着实惊人。我们还看到其 GMV 增长转化为收入增长，其中国商业收入从 76.7 亿元人民币增长到 473.68 亿元人民币，过去 10 年的复合年增长率为 51%。虽然其国际足迹仍然小得多，但在过去10年中，其CAGR仍以30.42%的速度增长，这绝不是缓慢的。</blockquote></p><p> Even though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.</p><p><blockquote>尽管未来三年中国电子商务市场的增长速度预计将大幅放缓，复合年增长率为 12.4%，从 2021 年的 13.8 万亿元人民币（相当于 2.16 万亿元人民币）下降到 2024 年的 19.6 万亿元人民币（相当于 3.06 万亿元人民币），但庞大的市场规模仍然为阿里巴巴及其最接近的竞争对手提供了巨大的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe2dee43f267e1d1399c68e3ca60f36\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>E-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国电子商务收入数据来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.</p><p><blockquote>当我们将中国市场的增长率和规模与美国电子商务市场进行比较时，我们可以看到它们在规模和增长率上的巨大差异，因为美国电子商务市场从 2021 年到 2025 年的复合年增长率预计仅为 4.67%，大大低于中国的 12.4%。此外，美国市场的总收入预计也将达到约 5630 亿美元，相当于届时中国市场预期价值的 18%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a8d0d8a6a2dcdf667a6f33c6c9771\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>Peers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行息税前利润率和预计息税前利润率。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&amp;A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.</p><p><blockquote>尽管阿里巴巴-SW一直面临着来自其快速增长的主要竞争对手京东（纳斯达克股票代码：JD）和拼多多（纳斯达克股票代码：PDD）的越来越大的竞争压力，但阿里巴巴已经经营着一项利润更高的业务（息税前税前利润和自由现金流），并且预计将继续实现强劲的盈利能力展望未来，这将为该公司提供巨大的灵活性，以与京东和PDD正面竞争，以扩大其领导地位。投资者可能会注意到，阿里巴巴的息税前利润率受到了其 SG&amp;A 中反映的 27.82 亿美元一次性行政罚款的影响，因此其息税前利润率向下倾斜。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of&nbsp;823M AAC&nbsp;in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only&nbsp;100M AAC in Q2’C17&nbsp;as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>其中一个重要举措是公司决定进一步投资社区市场，这是 PDD 的主要电子商务战略，PDD 在最近一个季度共获得了 8.23 亿 AAC，而阿里巴巴的 8.91 亿 AAC。考虑到 2017 年第二季度 PDD 的 AAC 数量仅为 1 亿，而同期阿里巴巴的 AAC 数量为 4.66 亿，PDD 的 AAC 增长确实惊人。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.</p><p><blockquote>因此，增长势头肯定已经转移到社区市场领域，阿里巴巴需要拿出它的大枪（它已经拥有）来与PDD和京东争夺主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b83b69b08b1f4b11a26393c8e6eead5\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国社区团购的市场规模。数据来源：艾媒咨询</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计到 2022 年 1020 亿元人民币的总市场规模仅占阿里巴巴 21 财年中国商业收入的 21.5% 左右，但阿里巴巴不能错过 2019 年至 2022 年 3 年间 44.22% 的快速复合年增长率。虽然这个市场还比较小，但阿里巴巴不能让这个市场目前的领头羊：PDD在众人不知情的情况下，如此轻易地占据主导地位，吞噬早期的高增长率。当然，阿里巴巴必须竞争并争取其在这一领域的地位，并争取早期领导地位，以防止PDD扩大其领先优势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b2b4a8a182dc9846d8fb7e4039877\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"770\"><span>PDD profitability metrics &amp; revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PDD盈利指标和收入增长预测。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.</p><p><blockquote>从上图中我们可以观察到，PDD 预计将在未来几年继续快速增长其收入，尽管预计随后将恢复正常。更重要的是，PDD 预计未来还将不断提高其息税前利润和自由现金流盈利能力。这表明，社区市场是一个非常重要的增长动力，阿里巴巴必须利用其优势加以利用，才能在游戏初期否认 PDD 无可争议的领导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aadc32155b4108426a1a982e3b5b1c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>China public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公共云支出。来源：中国互联网观察；通道</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1538b9f7bdc8d6d35a72d9acf8ecbc\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Size of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云市场规模。数据来源：CAICT；新浪网</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴在中国公共云市场占有 40% 的份额，远远领先于其主要竞争对手。然而，值得注意的是，尽管阿里巴巴处于领先地位，但阿里巴巴仍处于大量投资模式，以继续扩大其市场份额，因为中国公共云市场预计将从 2017 年的 264.8 亿元人民币增长到 2023 年的 2307.4 亿元人民币，复合年增长率将达到 43.4%，这是一个令人难以置信的惊人增长率。当我们将中国的增长率与全球增长率（见下文）进行比较时，这一点尤为明显，因为全球公共云支出预计将从 2017 年的 1450 亿美元增长到 2022 年的 3970 亿美元，复合年增长率将达到 22.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06198c569504bc303c34563041dfb294\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Worldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云支出。数据来源：Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8482037f60575f964053ab732496bee3\" tg-width=\"1176\" tg-height=\"700\"><span>Worldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云市场份额。资料来源：CnTechPost；高德纳</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.</p><p><blockquote>因此，阿里云在 2020 年以 9.5% 的市场份额继续扩大对Alphabet（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOGL）（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOG）GCP 的领先优势，我并不感到惊讶。虽然亚马逊仍然是市场的明显领导者，但随着公共云支出的持续扩大，其市场份额大幅下降，这表明多个参与者存在巨大的增长潜力。凭借阿里巴巴在快速扩张的中国市场的领导地位，我越来越看好该细分市场未来的利润和自由现金流对阿里巴巴业绩的贡献。虽然阿里巴巴的云业务尚未实现息税前利润（21 财年息税前利润率：-15%，20 财年息税前利润率：-17.5%），但值得注意的是，Alphabet的 GCP 也没有实现盈利（20 财年息税前利润率：-42.9%，19 财年息税前利润率：-52%）。因此，我们需要给阿里巴巴一些时间来扩大其在亚太地区和中国的云服务，预计阿里巴巴将在这些地区拥有更强大的领导地位，使其能够更快地增长，投资者应该预计随着时间的推移，这将是一个高利润的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的估值看起来非常有说服力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a087c4b3ef7efc2c5dde813e3b959d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>NTM TEV/息税前利润3年范围。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2605c0e5ad364a7a43929fef204595c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\"><span>EV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>电动汽车/前轮驱动息税前利润和电动汽车/前轮驱动转速趋势。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑到阿里巴巴的 TEV / EBIT 历史范围（3 年平均值为 33.54 倍）时，阿里巴巴的 EV / Fwd EBIT 趋势无疑意味着该股被严重低估，因为阿里巴巴的收入和营业利润仍有望快速增长。不过，由于我们希望更清楚地了解阿里巴巴的息税前利润是如何估值的，因此我们认为，如果我们对阿里巴巴的息税前利润进行估值，这将是有用的，如下所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27873e676dfb23c98d4a69aa5861e02\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1117\"><span>Peers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行EV/EBIT估值。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.</p><p><blockquote>通过混合使用历史息税前利润和远期息税前利润，我们可以看到，与基准公司的一组观察值的中值相比，阿里巴巴的电动汽车/息税前利润看起来确实被低估了。我们得出阿里巴巴在区间中点的公允价值区间为 294.98 美元，基于当前 210 美元的股价，这代表着 40.5% 的潜在上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks to Assumptions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>假设风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.</p><p><blockquote>现在，看着 Mr.市场决定对阿里巴巴进行折扣，就好像该公司已经失去了所有关键的增长来源，而事实上，其商业部门、新的市场计划和不断增长的阿里云部门等仍有很大的潜在上涨空间。我们认为该股表现不佳的主要现实原因仅仅是监管风险。我们认为投资者应该认识到这种风险是非常真实的，有时大型中国公司会发现自己受到中国政府的额外审查（事实上这并不是什么新鲜事）。关键在于，中国政府似乎对其科技巨头的行为和行动拥有巨大的影响力，而这些行为和行动有时在很大程度上是不可预测的。市场当然讨厌不可预测性，因此他们可能因此大幅打折阿里巴巴。如果投资者无法应对潜在不可预测的监管行动及其后果的不确定性，那么阿里巴巴可能不适合您。然而，如果你认为这只是阿里巴巴漫长征程中的一个昙花一现，那么你一定会发现阿里巴巴现在的估值极具吸引力，再加上长期思维。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切都包起来</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW继续交付稳健的业绩，证明了该公司良好执行的强大能力。由于公司将继续在一个拥有众多增长动力的市场中运营，这些增长动力有望推动公司未来的增长，投资者应该会发现目前的估值极具吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 09:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.</li>  <li>The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.</li>  <li>The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.</li>  <li>We discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e63c77d4f3f3dc3d618e43044638bb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Yongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW可能是目前最被低估的成长型股票。</li><li>该公司在快速扩张的市场中拥有多种增长动力，这使得其估值看起来更加令人困惑。</li><li>短期技术面可能会随着潜在的双底价格行动信号而转向看涨。</li><li>我们将讨论公司的多重增长动力，让投资者自己判断。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>戴永元/iStock 未通过 Getty Images 发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Technical Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术论文</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7febf6ed056b0e3bc038321cdaad9b1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba’s&nbsp;stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.</p><p><blockquote>自 11 月 20 日初蚂蚁金服 IPO 被撤销以来，阿里巴巴-SW的股价经历了可怕的 8 个月，该股在低迷中萎靡不振，较高点下跌了 34%。在考虑其长期上升趋势的健康状况时，很明显，阿里巴巴具有相对较强的上升趋势偏差，并且在其关键的 50W 均线上总体上得到了良好的支撑。在过去 4 年中，它唯一一次失去关键的 50W MA 支撑位是在 2018 年熊市期间，当时阿里巴巴下跌了约 40%，但仍在重要的 200W MA 上方得到良好支撑，我们通常认为这是 “最后一道防线”。现在阿里巴巴再次面临类似的情况：下跌34%，失去了50W MA，但看起来在200W MA以上得到了很好的支撑。除此之外，价格行为分析中的一个有趣观察可能会导致价格行为交易者/投资者特别看涨：潜在的双底形成。阿里巴巴的价格似乎正在经历双底，就像 2018 年熊市期间一样，随后强劲反弹。因此，阿里巴巴目前的水平可能是一个可能的技术性买入切入点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的基本论点：快速扩张的增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba49f5881708929949c30628eedc5d4\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"578\"><span>Annual GMV. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年度GMV。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6c4ed3e2402f5af52b2dea8bab411\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"517\"><span>Annual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年度电子商务收入。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴的GMV从1.68吨人民币增长到7.49吨人民币，仅用了7年时间，复合年增长率达到了23.8%，增长率着实惊人。我们还看到其 GMV 增长转化为收入增长，其中国商业收入从 76.7 亿元人民币增长到 473.68 亿元人民币，过去 10 年的复合年增长率为 51%。虽然其国际足迹仍然小得多，但在过去10年中，其CAGR仍以30.42%的速度增长，这绝不是缓慢的。</blockquote></p><p> Even though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.</p><p><blockquote>尽管未来三年中国电子商务市场的增长速度预计将大幅放缓，复合年增长率为 12.4%，从 2021 年的 13.8 万亿元人民币（相当于 2.16 万亿元人民币）下降到 2024 年的 19.6 万亿元人民币（相当于 3.06 万亿元人民币），但庞大的市场规模仍然为阿里巴巴及其最接近的竞争对手提供了巨大的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe2dee43f267e1d1399c68e3ca60f36\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>E-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国电子商务收入数据来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.</p><p><blockquote>当我们将中国市场的增长率和规模与美国电子商务市场进行比较时，我们可以看到它们在规模和增长率上的巨大差异，因为美国电子商务市场从 2021 年到 2025 年的复合年增长率预计仅为 4.67%，大大低于中国的 12.4%。此外，美国市场的总收入预计也将达到约 5630 亿美元，相当于届时中国市场预期价值的 18%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a8d0d8a6a2dcdf667a6f33c6c9771\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>Peers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行息税前利润率和预计息税前利润率。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&amp;A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.</p><p><blockquote>尽管阿里巴巴-SW一直面临着来自其快速增长的主要竞争对手京东（纳斯达克股票代码：JD）和拼多多（纳斯达克股票代码：PDD）的越来越大的竞争压力，但阿里巴巴已经经营着一项利润更高的业务（息税前税前利润和自由现金流），并且预计将继续实现强劲的盈利能力展望未来，这将为该公司提供巨大的灵活性，以与京东和PDD正面竞争，以扩大其领导地位。投资者可能会注意到，阿里巴巴的息税前利润率受到了其 SG&amp;A 中反映的 27.82 亿美元一次性行政罚款的影响，因此其息税前利润率向下倾斜。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of&nbsp;823M AAC&nbsp;in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only&nbsp;100M AAC in Q2’C17&nbsp;as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>其中一个重要举措是公司决定进一步投资社区市场，这是 PDD 的主要电子商务战略，PDD 在最近一个季度共获得了 8.23 亿 AAC，而阿里巴巴的 8.91 亿 AAC。考虑到 2017 年第二季度 PDD 的 AAC 数量仅为 1 亿，而同期阿里巴巴的 AAC 数量为 4.66 亿，PDD 的 AAC 增长确实惊人。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.</p><p><blockquote>因此，增长势头肯定已经转移到社区市场领域，阿里巴巴需要拿出它的大枪（它已经拥有）来与PDD和京东争夺主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b83b69b08b1f4b11a26393c8e6eead5\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国社区团购的市场规模。数据来源：艾媒咨询</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计到 2022 年 1020 亿元人民币的总市场规模仅占阿里巴巴 21 财年中国商业收入的 21.5% 左右，但阿里巴巴不能错过 2019 年至 2022 年 3 年间 44.22% 的快速复合年增长率。虽然这个市场还比较小，但阿里巴巴不能让这个市场目前的领头羊：PDD在众人不知情的情况下，如此轻易地占据主导地位，吞噬早期的高增长率。当然，阿里巴巴必须竞争并争取其在这一领域的地位，并争取早期领导地位，以防止PDD扩大其领先优势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b2b4a8a182dc9846d8fb7e4039877\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"770\"><span>PDD profitability metrics &amp; revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PDD盈利指标和收入增长预测。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.</p><p><blockquote>从上图中我们可以观察到，PDD 预计将在未来几年继续快速增长其收入，尽管预计随后将恢复正常。更重要的是，PDD 预计未来还将不断提高其息税前利润和自由现金流盈利能力。这表明，社区市场是一个非常重要的增长动力，阿里巴巴必须利用其优势加以利用，才能在游戏初期否认 PDD 无可争议的领导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aadc32155b4108426a1a982e3b5b1c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>China public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公共云支出。来源：中国互联网观察；通道</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1538b9f7bdc8d6d35a72d9acf8ecbc\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Size of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云市场规模。数据来源：CAICT；新浪网</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴在中国公共云市场占有 40% 的份额，远远领先于其主要竞争对手。然而，值得注意的是，尽管阿里巴巴处于领先地位，但阿里巴巴仍处于大量投资模式，以继续扩大其市场份额，因为中国公共云市场预计将从 2017 年的 264.8 亿元人民币增长到 2023 年的 2307.4 亿元人民币，复合年增长率将达到 43.4%，这是一个令人难以置信的惊人增长率。当我们将中国的增长率与全球增长率（见下文）进行比较时，这一点尤为明显，因为全球公共云支出预计将从 2017 年的 1450 亿美元增长到 2022 年的 3970 亿美元，复合年增长率将达到 22.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06198c569504bc303c34563041dfb294\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Worldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云支出。数据来源：Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8482037f60575f964053ab732496bee3\" tg-width=\"1176\" tg-height=\"700\"><span>Worldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云市场份额。资料来源：CnTechPost；高德纳</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.</p><p><blockquote>因此，阿里云在 2020 年以 9.5% 的市场份额继续扩大对Alphabet（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOGL）（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOG）GCP 的领先优势，我并不感到惊讶。虽然亚马逊仍然是市场的明显领导者，但随着公共云支出的持续扩大，其市场份额大幅下降，这表明多个参与者存在巨大的增长潜力。凭借阿里巴巴在快速扩张的中国市场的领导地位，我越来越看好该细分市场未来的利润和自由现金流对阿里巴巴业绩的贡献。虽然阿里巴巴的云业务尚未实现息税前利润（21 财年息税前利润率：-15%，20 财年息税前利润率：-17.5%），但值得注意的是，Alphabet的 GCP 也没有实现盈利（20 财年息税前利润率：-42.9%，19 财年息税前利润率：-52%）。因此，我们需要给阿里巴巴一些时间来扩大其在亚太地区和中国的云服务，预计阿里巴巴将在这些地区拥有更强大的领导地位，使其能够更快地增长，投资者应该预计随着时间的推移，这将是一个高利润的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的估值看起来非常有说服力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a087c4b3ef7efc2c5dde813e3b959d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>NTM TEV/息税前利润3年范围。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2605c0e5ad364a7a43929fef204595c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\"><span>EV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>电动汽车/前轮驱动息税前利润和电动汽车/前轮驱动转速趋势。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑到阿里巴巴的 TEV / EBIT 历史范围（3 年平均值为 33.54 倍）时，阿里巴巴的 EV / Fwd EBIT 趋势无疑意味着该股被严重低估，因为阿里巴巴的收入和营业利润仍有望快速增长。不过，由于我们希望更清楚地了解阿里巴巴的息税前利润是如何估值的，因此我们认为，如果我们对阿里巴巴的息税前利润进行估值，这将是有用的，如下所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27873e676dfb23c98d4a69aa5861e02\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1117\"><span>Peers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行EV/EBIT估值。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.</p><p><blockquote>通过混合使用历史息税前利润和远期息税前利润，我们可以看到，与基准公司的一组观察值的中值相比，阿里巴巴的电动汽车/息税前利润看起来确实被低估了。我们得出阿里巴巴在区间中点的公允价值区间为 294.98 美元，基于当前 210 美元的股价，这代表着 40.5% 的潜在上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks to Assumptions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>假设风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.</p><p><blockquote>现在，看着 Mr.市场决定对阿里巴巴进行折扣，就好像该公司已经失去了所有关键的增长来源，而事实上，其商业部门、新的市场计划和不断增长的阿里云部门等仍有很大的潜在上涨空间。我们认为该股表现不佳的主要现实原因仅仅是监管风险。我们认为投资者应该认识到这种风险是非常真实的，有时大型中国公司会发现自己受到中国政府的额外审查（事实上这并不是什么新鲜事）。关键在于，中国政府似乎对其科技巨头的行为和行动拥有巨大的影响力，而这些行为和行动有时在很大程度上是不可预测的。市场当然讨厌不可预测性，因此他们可能因此大幅打折阿里巴巴。如果投资者无法应对潜在不可预测的监管行动及其后果的不确定性，那么阿里巴巴可能不适合您。然而，如果你认为这只是阿里巴巴漫长征程中的一个昙花一现，那么你一定会发现阿里巴巴现在的估值极具吸引力，再加上长期思维。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切都包起来</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW继续交付稳健的业绩，证明了该公司良好执行的强大能力。由于公司将继续在一个拥有众多增长动力的市场中运营，这些增长动力有望推动公司未来的增长，投资者应该会发现目前的估值极具吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175693382","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.\nThe company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.\nThe short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.\nWe discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.\n\nYongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nThe Technical Thesis\nSource: TradingView\nAlibaba’s stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.\nBABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers\nAnnual GMV. Data source: Company filings\nAnnual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings\nBABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.\nEven though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.\nE-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista\nWhen we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.\nPeers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nEven though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.\nOne important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of 823M AAC in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only 100M AAC in Q2’C17 as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.\nTherefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.\nMarket size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research\nEven though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.\nPDD profitability metrics & revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWe could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.\nChina public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys\nSize of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn\nBABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.\nWorldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner\nWorldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner\nTherefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.\nBABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling\nNTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.\nEV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWhen we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.\nPeers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nBy using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.\nRisks to Assumptions\nNow, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.\nWrapping It All Up\nAlibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9,"09988":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4560,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":163484412,"gmtCreate":1623891405436,"gmtModify":1634026368950,"author":{"id":"3581899057268262","authorId":"3581899057268262","name":"CK11","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0923eb4b52245eb1bf4d6c510566f9f5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581899057268262","idStr":"3581899057268262"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good new for market.&nbsp;","listText":"Good new for market.&nbsp;","text":"Good new for market.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":26,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/163484412","repostId":"2144270718","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2769,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169052581,"gmtCreate":1623810123343,"gmtModify":1634027766176,"author":{"id":"3581899057268262","authorId":"3581899057268262","name":"CK11","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0923eb4b52245eb1bf4d6c510566f9f5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581899057268262","idStr":"3581899057268262"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Oh really?&nbsp;","listText":"Oh really?&nbsp;","text":"Oh really?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":23,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169052581","repostId":"1142443814","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142443814","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga Earnings","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1623802730,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1142443814?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-16 08:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Reasons Tech Stocks May Continue To Struggle<blockquote>科技股可能继续陷入困境的 3 个原因</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142443814","media":"Benzinga Earnings","summary":"So far in 2021, the Vanguard Value Index Fund ETF is up 17.4% nearly double the year-to-date return ","content":"<p>So far in 2021, the&nbsp;<b>Vanguard Value Index Fund ETF</b>&nbsp;is up 17.4% nearly double the year-to-date return of the<b>Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund</b>.</p><p><blockquote>2021年迄今为止，<b>先锋价值指数基金ETF</b>上涨 17.4%，几乎是今年迄今回报率的两倍<b>科技精选行业 SPDR 基金</b>.</blockquote></p><p> Over the past decade, periods of time in which tech stocks have lagged value stocks have been short and sweet, but LPL Financial said there are at least three reasons why tech may no longer be leading the market higher for the foreseeable future.</p><p><blockquote>在过去十年中，科技股落后于价值股的时期是短暂而甜蜜的，但 LPL Financial 表示，在可预见的未来，科技股可能不再引领市场走高，至少有三个原因。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>First, many tech stocks that thrived during the period of social distancing and remote working will face extremely difficult comps and report growth slowdowns in the next several quarters. At the same time, value stocks in the industrials, materials and energy sectors that struggled during the shutdowns will experience the tailwinds of pent-up demand from the reopening.</li>  <li>Second, the tech sector’s current forward earnings multiple of 25 is relatively high compared to its historical average. In addition, the Russell 1,000 Growth Index is currently valued at a 60% premium to the Russell 1,000 Value Index, its highest premium in the past 20 years.</li>  <li>Third, the technology sector appears to be rolling over from a technical standpoint. The sector has lagged the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of September, suggesting technology’s momentum has stalled out.</li> </ul> “It’s tough not to like technology given the strong fundamentals and rapid pace of innovation from many tech companies,” LPL Equity Strategist Jeffrey Buchbindersaid Tuesday.“But we expect cyclical value sectors like financials, industrials, and materials to fare better the rest of the year as the economy gets a reopening jolt.”</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>首先，许多在社交距离和远程工作时期蓬勃发展的科技股将面临极其困难的竞争，并在未来几个季度报告增长放缓。与此同时，在停工期间陷入困境的工业、材料和能源行业的价值股将经历重新开放带来的被压抑需求的顺风。</li><li>其次，与历史平均水平相比，科技行业目前 25 倍的远期市盈率相对较高。此外，罗素 1,000 增长指数目前的估值比罗素 1,000 价值指数溢价 60%，为过去 20 年来的最高溢价。</li><li>第三，从技术角度来看，科技板块似乎正在翻转。自 9 月初以来，该行业一直落后于标普500，这表明科技行业的发展势头已经停滞。</li></ul>“LPL股票策略师杰弗里-布赫宾德（Jeffrey Buchbinder）周二表示：”鉴于许多科技公司强劲的基本面和快速的创新步伐，很难不喜欢科技。“但我们预计，随着经济重新开放的冲击，金融、工业和材料等周期性价值行业将在今年剩余时间里表现更好。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Benzinga’s Take:</b>Just because tech stocks are no longer leading the market higher doesn’t mean investors should dump all their tech holdings for value stocks. There will still certainly be outperformers within the tech sector that are among the largest gainers in the market in 2021, but the easy money that has come from investing in the sector as a whole in the past decade may be much harder to come by in the next several quarters.</p><p><blockquote><b>Benzinga 的观点：</b>科技股不再引领市场走高，并不意味着投资者应该抛售所有科技股，转而购买价值股。科技行业肯定仍会有表现优异的公司成为 2021 年市场上涨幅最大的公司之一，但过去十年从整个行业投资中获得的轻松资金可能会更难在未来几个季度获得。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Reasons Tech Stocks May Continue To Struggle<blockquote>科技股可能继续陷入困境的 3 个原因</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Reasons Tech Stocks May Continue To Struggle<blockquote>科技股可能继续陷入困境的 3 个原因</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga Earnings </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-16 08:18</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>So far in 2021, the&nbsp;<b>Vanguard Value Index Fund ETF</b>&nbsp;is up 17.4% nearly double the year-to-date return of the<b>Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund</b>.</p><p><blockquote>2021年迄今为止，<b>先锋价值指数基金ETF</b>上涨 17.4%，几乎是今年迄今回报率的两倍<b>科技精选行业 SPDR 基金</b>.</blockquote></p><p> Over the past decade, periods of time in which tech stocks have lagged value stocks have been short and sweet, but LPL Financial said there are at least three reasons why tech may no longer be leading the market higher for the foreseeable future.</p><p><blockquote>在过去十年中，科技股落后于价值股的时期是短暂而甜蜜的，但 LPL Financial 表示，在可预见的未来，科技股可能不再引领市场走高，至少有三个原因。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>First, many tech stocks that thrived during the period of social distancing and remote working will face extremely difficult comps and report growth slowdowns in the next several quarters. At the same time, value stocks in the industrials, materials and energy sectors that struggled during the shutdowns will experience the tailwinds of pent-up demand from the reopening.</li>  <li>Second, the tech sector’s current forward earnings multiple of 25 is relatively high compared to its historical average. In addition, the Russell 1,000 Growth Index is currently valued at a 60% premium to the Russell 1,000 Value Index, its highest premium in the past 20 years.</li>  <li>Third, the technology sector appears to be rolling over from a technical standpoint. The sector has lagged the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of September, suggesting technology’s momentum has stalled out.</li> </ul> “It’s tough not to like technology given the strong fundamentals and rapid pace of innovation from many tech companies,” LPL Equity Strategist Jeffrey Buchbindersaid Tuesday.“But we expect cyclical value sectors like financials, industrials, and materials to fare better the rest of the year as the economy gets a reopening jolt.”</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>首先，许多在社交距离和远程工作时期蓬勃发展的科技股将面临极其困难的竞争，并在未来几个季度报告增长放缓。与此同时，在停工期间陷入困境的工业、材料和能源行业的价值股将经历重新开放带来的被压抑需求的顺风。</li><li>其次，与历史平均水平相比，科技行业目前 25 倍的远期市盈率相对较高。此外，罗素 1,000 增长指数目前的估值比罗素 1,000 价值指数溢价 60%，为过去 20 年来的最高溢价。</li><li>第三，从技术角度来看，科技板块似乎正在翻转。自 9 月初以来，该行业一直落后于标普500，这表明科技行业的发展势头已经停滞。</li></ul>“LPL股票策略师杰弗里-布赫宾德（Jeffrey Buchbinder）周二表示：”鉴于许多科技公司强劲的基本面和快速的创新步伐，很难不喜欢科技。“但我们预计，随着经济重新开放的冲击，金融、工业和材料等周期性价值行业将在今年剩余时间里表现更好。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Benzinga’s Take:</b>Just because tech stocks are no longer leading the market higher doesn’t mean investors should dump all their tech holdings for value stocks. There will still certainly be outperformers within the tech sector that are among the largest gainers in the market in 2021, but the easy money that has come from investing in the sector as a whole in the past decade may be much harder to come by in the next several quarters.</p><p><blockquote><b>Benzinga 的观点：</b>科技股不再引领市场走高，并不意味着投资者应该抛售所有科技股，转而购买价值股。科技行业肯定仍会有表现优异的公司成为 2021 年市场上涨幅最大的公司之一，但过去十年从整个行业投资中获得的轻松资金可能会更难在未来几个季度获得。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142443814","content_text":"So far in 2021, the Vanguard Value Index Fund ETF is up 17.4% nearly double the year-to-date return of theTechnology Select Sector SPDR Fund.\nOver the past decade, periods of time in which tech stocks have lagged value stocks have been short and sweet, but LPL Financial said there are at least three reasons why tech may no longer be leading the market higher for the foreseeable future.\n\nFirst, many tech stocks that thrived during the period of social distancing and remote working will face extremely difficult comps and report growth slowdowns in the next several quarters. At the same time, value stocks in the industrials, materials and energy sectors that struggled during the shutdowns will experience the tailwinds of pent-up demand from the reopening.\nSecond, the tech sector’s current forward earnings multiple of 25 is relatively high compared to its historical average. In addition, the Russell 1,000 Growth Index is currently valued at a 60% premium to the Russell 1,000 Value Index, its highest premium in the past 20 years.\nThird, the technology sector appears to be rolling over from a technical standpoint. The sector has lagged the S&P 500 since the beginning of September, suggesting technology’s momentum has stalled out.\n\n“It’s tough not to like technology given the strong fundamentals and rapid pace of innovation from many tech companies,” LPL Equity Strategist Jeffrey Buchbindersaid Tuesday.“But we expect cyclical value sectors like financials, industrials, and materials to fare better the rest of the year as the economy gets a reopening jolt.”\nBenzinga’s Take:Just because tech stocks are no longer leading the market higher doesn’t mean investors should dump all their tech holdings for value stocks. There will still certainly be outperformers within the tech sector that are among the largest gainers in the market in 2021, but the easy money that has come from investing in the sector as a whole in the past decade may be much harder to come by in the next several quarters.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3105,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185088144,"gmtCreate":1623627286888,"gmtModify":1634031128248,"author":{"id":"3581899057268262","authorId":"3581899057268262","name":"CK11","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0923eb4b52245eb1bf4d6c510566f9f5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581899057268262","idStr":"3581899057268262"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Grab app offer a lot of stuff now..&nbsp;","listText":"Grab app offer a lot of stuff now..&nbsp;","text":"Grab app offer a lot of stuff now..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185088144","repostId":"1128243947","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3321,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186745667,"gmtCreate":1623544709659,"gmtModify":1634032038080,"author":{"id":"3581899057268262","authorId":"3581899057268262","name":"CK11","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0923eb4b52245eb1bf4d6c510566f9f5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581899057268262","idStr":"3581899057268262"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Pfizer look good.&nbsp;","listText":"Pfizer look good.&nbsp;","text":"Pfizer look good.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186745667","repostId":"2142788118","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1025,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186353005,"gmtCreate":1623474938607,"gmtModify":1634032621974,"author":{"id":"3581899057268262","authorId":"3581899057268262","name":"CK11","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0923eb4b52245eb1bf4d6c510566f9f5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581899057268262","idStr":"3581899057268262"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"When share price drop 70 - 80% speculator can become long term investor as well.&nbsp;","listText":"When share price drop 70 - 80% speculator can become long term investor as well.&nbsp;","text":"When share price drop 70 - 80% speculator can become long term investor as well.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186353005","repostId":"1147474880","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147474880","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623470168,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1147474880?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-12 11:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Investor, Trader, Speculator: Which One Are You?<blockquote>投资者、交易者、投机者：你是哪一个？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147474880","media":"The Wall Street Journal","summary":"Understanding the difference between speculation and investing is essential to avoiding reckless ris","content":"<p>  Understanding the difference between speculation and investing is essential to avoiding reckless risk.  I’ve had it.</p><p><blockquote>了解投机和投资之间的区别对于避免鲁莽的风险至关重要。我受够了。</blockquote></p><p> The Wall Street Journal is wrong, and has remained wrong for decades, about one of the most basic distinctions in finance. And I can’t stand it anymore.</p><p><blockquote>《华尔街日报》对金融最基本的区别之一的看法是错误的，而且几十年来一直是错误的。我再也受不了了。</blockquote></p><p> If you buy a stock purely because it’s gone up a lot, without doing any research on it whatsoever, you are not—as the Journal and its editors bizarrely insist on calling you—an “investor.” If you buy a cryptocurrency because, hey, that sounds like fun, you aren’t an investor either.</p><p><blockquote>如果你仅仅因为一只股票上涨了很多，而没有做任何研究就买入它，那么你就不是《华尔街日报》及其编辑们奇怪地坚持称你为 “投资者”。如果你购买加密货币是因为，嘿，这听起来很有趣，那你也不是投资者。</blockquote></p><p> Whenever you buy any financial asset becauseyou have a hunchorjust for kicks, or becausesomebody famous is hyping the heck out of itoreverybody else seems to be buying it too, you aren’t investing.</p><p><blockquote>每当你购买任何金融资产时，因为你有一只雄鸡只是为了好玩，或者因为某个名人大肆宣传，而其他人似乎也在购买，你就不是在投资。</blockquote></p><p> You’re definitely a trader: someone who has just bought an asset. And you may bea speculator: someone who thinks other people will pay more for it than you did.</p><p><blockquote>你绝对是交易者：刚刚购买资产的人。你可能是一个投机者：认为其他人会比你付出更多的人。</blockquote></p><p> Of course,some folkswho buy meme stocks likeGameStopCorp.GME5.88%<i>are</i>investors. They read the companies’ financial statements, study the health of the underlying businesses and learn who else is betting on or against the shares. Likewise, many buyers of digital coins have put in the time and effort to understand how cryptocurrency works and how it could reshape finance.</p><p><blockquote>当然，有些人购买 GameStopCorp.GME5.88% 等模因股票<i>是</i>投资者。他们阅读公司的财务报表，研究基础业务的健康状况，并了解还有谁在押注或押注股票。同样，许多数字硬币的买家也投入了时间和精力来了解加密货币是如何运作的，以及它如何重塑金融。</blockquote></p><p> An investor relies on internal sources of return: earnings, income, growth in the value of assets. A speculator counts on external sources of return: primarilywhether somebody else will pay more, regardless of fundamental value.</p><p><blockquote>投资者依赖于内部回报来源：收益、收入、资产价值增长。投机者依靠外部回报来源：主要是其他人是否愿意支付更多，而不管基本面价值如何。</blockquote></p><p> The word investor comes from the Latin “investire,” to dress in or clothe oneself, surround or envelop. You would never wear clothes without knowing what color they are or what material they’re made of. Likewise, you can’t invest in an asset you know nothing about.</p><p><blockquote>投资者一词源于拉丁语 “investire ”，意为打扮自己、包围或包裹自己。你永远不会在不知道衣服是什么颜色或材质的情况下穿衣服。同样，你也不能投资你一无所知的资产。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, the Journal and its editors have long called almost everybody who buys just about anything an “investor.” On July 12, 1962, the Journal publisheda letter to the editorfrom Benjamin Graham, author of the classic books “Security Analysis” and “The Intelligent Investor.” That June, complained Graham, the Journal had run an article headlined “Many Small Investors Bet on Further Drops, Sell Odd Lots Short.”</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，《华尔街日报》及其编辑们长期以来一直将几乎所有购买任何东西的人都称为 “投资者”。1962 年 7 月 12 日，《华尔街日报》刊登了经典著作《证券分析》和《聪明的投资者》的作者本杰明-格雷厄姆写给编辑的一封信。格雷厄姆抱怨说，那年 6 月，《华尔街日报》发表了一篇文章，标题是 “许多小投资者押注股价进一步下跌，卖空奇数手 ”。</blockquote></p><p> He wrote: “By what definition of ‘investment’ can one give the name ‘investors’ to small people who make bets on the stock market by selling odd lots short?” (To short an odd lot is to borrow and sell fewer than 100 shares in a wager that a stock will fall—an expensive and risky bet, then and now.)</p><p><blockquote>他写道： “根据'投资'的什么定义，我们能把'投资者'这个名字称为'投资'呢？”（做空奇数手意味着借入并卖出少于 100 股股票，押注股票会下跌——无论在当时还是现在，这都是一个昂贵且有风险的赌注。）</blockquote></p><p> “If these people are investors,” asked Graham, “how should one define ‘speculation’ and ‘speculators’? Isn’t it possible that the currentfailure to distinguishbetweeninvestment and speculationmay do grave harm not only to individuals but to the whole financial community—as it did in the late 1920s?”</p><p><blockquote>“格雷厄姆问道：”如果这些人是投资者，“我们应该如何定义'投机'和'投机者'？难道目前无法区分投资和投机，不仅会对个人造成严重伤害，还会对整个金融界造成严重伤害吗--就像 20 世纪 20 年代末那样？”</blockquote></p><p> Graham wasn’t a snob who thought that the markets should be the exclusive playground of the rich. He wrote “The Intelligent Investor” with the express purpose of helping less-wealthy people participate wisely in the stock market.</p><p><blockquote>格雷厄姆并不是一个势利小人，他认为市场应该是富人的专属游乐场。他写《聪明的投资者》的明确目的是帮助不太富裕的人明智地参与股票市场。</blockquote></p><p> In that book, after which this column is named, Graham said, “Outright speculation is neither illegal, immoral, nor (for most people) fattening to the pocketbook.”</p><p><blockquote>格雷厄姆在那本书中写道：“彻头彻尾的投机既不违法，也不不道德，（对大多数人来说）也不会中饱私囊。”</blockquote></p><p> However, he warned, it creates three dangers: “(1) speculating when you think you are investing; (2) speculating seriously instead of as a pastime, when you lack proper knowledge and skill for it; and (3) risking more money in speculation than you can afford to lose.”</p><p><blockquote>然而，他警告说，这会带来三个危险： “(1) 当你认为自己在投资时进行投机；(2) 当你缺乏适当的知识和技能时，认真地进行投机而不是作为消遣；(3) 在投机中冒的风险超过了你承受的损失”。</blockquote></p><p> Most investors speculate a bit every once in a while. Like a lottery ticket or an occasional visit to the racetrack or casino, a little is harmless fun. A lot isn’t.</p><p><blockquote>大多数投资者每隔一段时间就会投机一点。就像一张彩票或偶尔去赛马场或赌场一样，一点点是无害的乐趣。很多人都不是。</blockquote></p><p> If you think you’re investing when you’re speculating, you’ll attribute even momentary success to skill even thoughluck is the likeliest explanation. That can lead you to take reckless risks.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为自己在投机时就是在投资，那么即使是短暂的成功，你也会把技巧归因于技巧，尽管运气是最有可能的解释。这会导致你冒鲁莽的风险。</blockquote></p><p> Take speculating too seriously, and it turns intoan obsessionandan addiction. You become incapable of accepting your losses or focusing on the future more than a few minutes ahead. Next thing you know, you’re throwing even more money onto the bonfire.</p><p><blockquote>把投机看得太重，它会变成痴迷和上瘾。你变得无法接受你的损失，也无法在几分钟前专注于未来。接下来你就会知道，你在篝火上投入了更多的钱。</blockquote></p><p> I think calling traders and speculators “investors” shoves many newcomers farther down the slippery slope toward risks they shouldn’t take and losses they can’t afford. I fervently hope the Journal and its editors will finally stop using “investor” as the default term for anyone who makes a trade.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，称交易者和投机者为 “投资者 ”会将许多新来者推向他们不应该承担的风险和他们无法承受的损失。我衷心希望《华尔街日报》及其编辑们最终能停止使用 “投资者 ”作为任何进行交易的人的默认术语。</blockquote></p><p> “ ‘Investor’ has a long history in the English language as a catch-all term denoting people who commit capital with the expectation of a return, no matter how long or short, no matter how many or how few investing columns they read,” WSJ Financial Editor Charles Forelle said in response to my complaints. “Back at least to the mid-19th century, ‘invest’ has even been used to describe a wager on horses—an activity surely no less divorced from fundamental analysis than a purchase of dogecoin.”</p><p><blockquote>“《华尔街日报》财经编辑查尔斯-福雷尔（Charles Forelle）在回应我的投诉时说：”'投资者'在英语中有着悠久的历史，它是一个包罗万象的术语，指的是那些投入资金并期望获得回报的人，无论时间长短，无论他们阅读的投资专栏有多少。“至少可以追溯到 19 世纪中叶，'投资'甚至被用来形容赌马--这种活动与基本面分析的脱节肯定不亚于购买狗狗币”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> I hear you, Boss, but I still think you’re wrong. There’s no way the Journal would say a recreational gambler is “investing” at the racetrack just because a dictionary says we can.</p><p><blockquote>我听到了，老板，但我还是觉得你错了。《华尔街日报》不可能因为字典上说我们可以，就说一个休闲赌徒在赛马场 “投资 ”。</blockquote></p><p> Calling novice speculators “investors” is one of the most powerful ways marketers fuel excessive trading.</p><p><blockquote>将新手投机者称为 “投资者 ”是营销人员助长过度交易的最有力手段之一。</blockquote></p><p> Ina recent Instagram post, a former porn star who goes by the name Lana Rhoades posed in—well, mostly in—a bikini, as she held up what appears to be Graham’s “The Intelligent Investor.” According to IMDb.com, she starred in such videos as “Tushy” and “Make Me Meow.”</p><p><blockquote>在最近的 Instagram 帖子中，一位名叫拉娜-罗德斯（Lana Rhoades）的前色情明星穿着比基尼摆姿势，举着似乎是格雷厄姆的《聪明的投资者》。据 IMDb.com 报道，她主演了《Tushy》和《Make Me Meow》等视频。</blockquote></p><p> In her post, which was “liked” by nearly 1.8 million people, Ms. Rhoades announced that she will be promoting a cryptocurrency calledPAWGcoin.</p><p><blockquote>罗兹女士在她的帖子中宣布，她将推广一种名为 Pawgcoin 的加密货币，该帖子获得了近 180 万人的 “点赞 ”。</blockquote></p><p> The currency’s website says the coin is meant for “those who pay homage to developed posteriors.” (PAWG, I’ve been reliably informed, stands for Phat Ass White Girl.)</p><p><blockquote>该货币的网站称，这枚硬币是为 “那些向发达的后裔致敬的人”准备的。(据我可靠消息，PAWG 代表肥屁股白人女孩。）</blockquote></p><p> PAWGcoin is up roughly 900% since Ms. Rhoades began promoting it in early June, according to Poocoin.io, a website that tracks such digital currencies.</p><p><blockquote>据追踪此类数字货币的网站 Poocoin.io 称，自 Rhoades 女士 6 月初开始推广 PAWGcoin 以来，PAWGcoin 已上涨约 900%。</blockquote></p><p> Ms. Rhoades, who has tweeted “I also read the WSJ every morning,” couldn’t be reached for comment. PAWGcoin’s website encourages visitors to “invest now.”</p><p><blockquote>罗兹女士在推特上写道 “我每天早上也读《华尔街日报》 ”，但记者未能联系到她置评。PAWGcoin 的网站鼓励访问者 “立即投资”。</blockquote></p><p> In Ms. Rhoades’s Instagram post, she is holding up an open copy of the “The Intelligent Investor,” whose cover is reversed. She appears to be reading it with her eyes closed.</p><p><blockquote>在罗兹女士的 Instagram 帖子中，她举着一本打开的《聪明的投资者》，封面是颠倒的。她似乎是闭着眼睛读的。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Investor, Trader, Speculator: Which One Are You?<blockquote>投资者、交易者、投机者：你是哪一个？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvestor, Trader, Speculator: Which One Are You?<blockquote>投资者、交易者、投机者：你是哪一个？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Wall Street Journal</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-12 11:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  Understanding the difference between speculation and investing is essential to avoiding reckless risk.  I’ve had it.</p><p><blockquote>了解投机和投资之间的区别对于避免鲁莽的风险至关重要。我受够了。</blockquote></p><p> The Wall Street Journal is wrong, and has remained wrong for decades, about one of the most basic distinctions in finance. And I can’t stand it anymore.</p><p><blockquote>《华尔街日报》对金融最基本的区别之一的看法是错误的，而且几十年来一直是错误的。我再也受不了了。</blockquote></p><p> If you buy a stock purely because it’s gone up a lot, without doing any research on it whatsoever, you are not—as the Journal and its editors bizarrely insist on calling you—an “investor.” If you buy a cryptocurrency because, hey, that sounds like fun, you aren’t an investor either.</p><p><blockquote>如果你仅仅因为一只股票上涨了很多，而没有做任何研究就买入它，那么你就不是《华尔街日报》及其编辑们奇怪地坚持称你为 “投资者”。如果你购买加密货币是因为，嘿，这听起来很有趣，那你也不是投资者。</blockquote></p><p> Whenever you buy any financial asset becauseyou have a hunchorjust for kicks, or becausesomebody famous is hyping the heck out of itoreverybody else seems to be buying it too, you aren’t investing.</p><p><blockquote>每当你购买任何金融资产时，因为你有一只雄鸡只是为了好玩，或者因为某个名人大肆宣传，而其他人似乎也在购买，你就不是在投资。</blockquote></p><p> You’re definitely a trader: someone who has just bought an asset. And you may bea speculator: someone who thinks other people will pay more for it than you did.</p><p><blockquote>你绝对是交易者：刚刚购买资产的人。你可能是一个投机者：认为其他人会比你付出更多的人。</blockquote></p><p> Of course,some folkswho buy meme stocks likeGameStopCorp.GME5.88%<i>are</i>investors. They read the companies’ financial statements, study the health of the underlying businesses and learn who else is betting on or against the shares. Likewise, many buyers of digital coins have put in the time and effort to understand how cryptocurrency works and how it could reshape finance.</p><p><blockquote>当然，有些人购买 GameStopCorp.GME5.88% 等模因股票<i>是</i>投资者。他们阅读公司的财务报表，研究基础业务的健康状况，并了解还有谁在押注或押注股票。同样，许多数字硬币的买家也投入了时间和精力来了解加密货币是如何运作的，以及它如何重塑金融。</blockquote></p><p> An investor relies on internal sources of return: earnings, income, growth in the value of assets. A speculator counts on external sources of return: primarilywhether somebody else will pay more, regardless of fundamental value.</p><p><blockquote>投资者依赖于内部回报来源：收益、收入、资产价值增长。投机者依靠外部回报来源：主要是其他人是否愿意支付更多，而不管基本面价值如何。</blockquote></p><p> The word investor comes from the Latin “investire,” to dress in or clothe oneself, surround or envelop. You would never wear clothes without knowing what color they are or what material they’re made of. Likewise, you can’t invest in an asset you know nothing about.</p><p><blockquote>投资者一词源于拉丁语 “investire ”，意为打扮自己、包围或包裹自己。你永远不会在不知道衣服是什么颜色或材质的情况下穿衣服。同样，你也不能投资你一无所知的资产。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, the Journal and its editors have long called almost everybody who buys just about anything an “investor.” On July 12, 1962, the Journal publisheda letter to the editorfrom Benjamin Graham, author of the classic books “Security Analysis” and “The Intelligent Investor.” That June, complained Graham, the Journal had run an article headlined “Many Small Investors Bet on Further Drops, Sell Odd Lots Short.”</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，《华尔街日报》及其编辑们长期以来一直将几乎所有购买任何东西的人都称为 “投资者”。1962 年 7 月 12 日，《华尔街日报》刊登了经典著作《证券分析》和《聪明的投资者》的作者本杰明-格雷厄姆写给编辑的一封信。格雷厄姆抱怨说，那年 6 月，《华尔街日报》发表了一篇文章，标题是 “许多小投资者押注股价进一步下跌，卖空奇数手 ”。</blockquote></p><p> He wrote: “By what definition of ‘investment’ can one give the name ‘investors’ to small people who make bets on the stock market by selling odd lots short?” (To short an odd lot is to borrow and sell fewer than 100 shares in a wager that a stock will fall—an expensive and risky bet, then and now.)</p><p><blockquote>他写道： “根据'投资'的什么定义，我们能把'投资者'这个名字称为'投资'呢？”（做空奇数手意味着借入并卖出少于 100 股股票，押注股票会下跌——无论在当时还是现在，这都是一个昂贵且有风险的赌注。）</blockquote></p><p> “If these people are investors,” asked Graham, “how should one define ‘speculation’ and ‘speculators’? Isn’t it possible that the currentfailure to distinguishbetweeninvestment and speculationmay do grave harm not only to individuals but to the whole financial community—as it did in the late 1920s?”</p><p><blockquote>“格雷厄姆问道：”如果这些人是投资者，“我们应该如何定义'投机'和'投机者'？难道目前无法区分投资和投机，不仅会对个人造成严重伤害，还会对整个金融界造成严重伤害吗--就像 20 世纪 20 年代末那样？”</blockquote></p><p> Graham wasn’t a snob who thought that the markets should be the exclusive playground of the rich. He wrote “The Intelligent Investor” with the express purpose of helping less-wealthy people participate wisely in the stock market.</p><p><blockquote>格雷厄姆并不是一个势利小人，他认为市场应该是富人的专属游乐场。他写《聪明的投资者》的明确目的是帮助不太富裕的人明智地参与股票市场。</blockquote></p><p> In that book, after which this column is named, Graham said, “Outright speculation is neither illegal, immoral, nor (for most people) fattening to the pocketbook.”</p><p><blockquote>格雷厄姆在那本书中写道：“彻头彻尾的投机既不违法，也不不道德，（对大多数人来说）也不会中饱私囊。”</blockquote></p><p> However, he warned, it creates three dangers: “(1) speculating when you think you are investing; (2) speculating seriously instead of as a pastime, when you lack proper knowledge and skill for it; and (3) risking more money in speculation than you can afford to lose.”</p><p><blockquote>然而，他警告说，这会带来三个危险： “(1) 当你认为自己在投资时进行投机；(2) 当你缺乏适当的知识和技能时，认真地进行投机而不是作为消遣；(3) 在投机中冒的风险超过了你承受的损失”。</blockquote></p><p> Most investors speculate a bit every once in a while. Like a lottery ticket or an occasional visit to the racetrack or casino, a little is harmless fun. A lot isn’t.</p><p><blockquote>大多数投资者每隔一段时间就会投机一点。就像一张彩票或偶尔去赛马场或赌场一样，一点点是无害的乐趣。很多人都不是。</blockquote></p><p> If you think you’re investing when you’re speculating, you’ll attribute even momentary success to skill even thoughluck is the likeliest explanation. That can lead you to take reckless risks.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为自己在投机时就是在投资，那么即使是短暂的成功，你也会把技巧归因于技巧，尽管运气是最有可能的解释。这会导致你冒鲁莽的风险。</blockquote></p><p> Take speculating too seriously, and it turns intoan obsessionandan addiction. You become incapable of accepting your losses or focusing on the future more than a few minutes ahead. Next thing you know, you’re throwing even more money onto the bonfire.</p><p><blockquote>把投机看得太重，它会变成痴迷和上瘾。你变得无法接受你的损失，也无法在几分钟前专注于未来。接下来你就会知道，你在篝火上投入了更多的钱。</blockquote></p><p> I think calling traders and speculators “investors” shoves many newcomers farther down the slippery slope toward risks they shouldn’t take and losses they can’t afford. I fervently hope the Journal and its editors will finally stop using “investor” as the default term for anyone who makes a trade.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，称交易者和投机者为 “投资者 ”会将许多新来者推向他们不应该承担的风险和他们无法承受的损失。我衷心希望《华尔街日报》及其编辑们最终能停止使用 “投资者 ”作为任何进行交易的人的默认术语。</blockquote></p><p> “ ‘Investor’ has a long history in the English language as a catch-all term denoting people who commit capital with the expectation of a return, no matter how long or short, no matter how many or how few investing columns they read,” WSJ Financial Editor Charles Forelle said in response to my complaints. “Back at least to the mid-19th century, ‘invest’ has even been used to describe a wager on horses—an activity surely no less divorced from fundamental analysis than a purchase of dogecoin.”</p><p><blockquote>“《华尔街日报》财经编辑查尔斯-福雷尔（Charles Forelle）在回应我的投诉时说：”'投资者'在英语中有着悠久的历史，它是一个包罗万象的术语，指的是那些投入资金并期望获得回报的人，无论时间长短，无论他们阅读的投资专栏有多少。“至少可以追溯到 19 世纪中叶，'投资'甚至被用来形容赌马--这种活动与基本面分析的脱节肯定不亚于购买狗狗币”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> I hear you, Boss, but I still think you’re wrong. There’s no way the Journal would say a recreational gambler is “investing” at the racetrack just because a dictionary says we can.</p><p><blockquote>我听到了，老板，但我还是觉得你错了。《华尔街日报》不可能因为字典上说我们可以，就说一个休闲赌徒在赛马场 “投资 ”。</blockquote></p><p> Calling novice speculators “investors” is one of the most powerful ways marketers fuel excessive trading.</p><p><blockquote>将新手投机者称为 “投资者 ”是营销人员助长过度交易的最有力手段之一。</blockquote></p><p> Ina recent Instagram post, a former porn star who goes by the name Lana Rhoades posed in—well, mostly in—a bikini, as she held up what appears to be Graham’s “The Intelligent Investor.” According to IMDb.com, she starred in such videos as “Tushy” and “Make Me Meow.”</p><p><blockquote>在最近的 Instagram 帖子中，一位名叫拉娜-罗德斯（Lana Rhoades）的前色情明星穿着比基尼摆姿势，举着似乎是格雷厄姆的《聪明的投资者》。据 IMDb.com 报道，她主演了《Tushy》和《Make Me Meow》等视频。</blockquote></p><p> In her post, which was “liked” by nearly 1.8 million people, Ms. Rhoades announced that she will be promoting a cryptocurrency calledPAWGcoin.</p><p><blockquote>罗兹女士在她的帖子中宣布，她将推广一种名为 Pawgcoin 的加密货币，该帖子获得了近 180 万人的 “点赞 ”。</blockquote></p><p> The currency’s website says the coin is meant for “those who pay homage to developed posteriors.” (PAWG, I’ve been reliably informed, stands for Phat Ass White Girl.)</p><p><blockquote>该货币的网站称，这枚硬币是为 “那些向发达的后裔致敬的人”准备的。(据我可靠消息，PAWG 代表肥屁股白人女孩。）</blockquote></p><p> PAWGcoin is up roughly 900% since Ms. Rhoades began promoting it in early June, according to Poocoin.io, a website that tracks such digital currencies.</p><p><blockquote>据追踪此类数字货币的网站 Poocoin.io 称，自 Rhoades 女士 6 月初开始推广 PAWGcoin 以来，PAWGcoin 已上涨约 900%。</blockquote></p><p> Ms. Rhoades, who has tweeted “I also read the WSJ every morning,” couldn’t be reached for comment. PAWGcoin’s website encourages visitors to “invest now.”</p><p><blockquote>罗兹女士在推特上写道 “我每天早上也读《华尔街日报》 ”，但记者未能联系到她置评。PAWGcoin 的网站鼓励访问者 “立即投资”。</blockquote></p><p> In Ms. Rhoades’s Instagram post, she is holding up an open copy of the “The Intelligent Investor,” whose cover is reversed. She appears to be reading it with her eyes closed.</p><p><blockquote>在罗兹女士的 Instagram 帖子中，她举着一本打开的《聪明的投资者》，封面是颠倒的。她似乎是闭着眼睛读的。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/you-cant-invest-without-trading-you-can-trade-without-investing-11623426213?mod=markets_lead_pos5\">The Wall Street Journal</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/you-cant-invest-without-trading-you-can-trade-without-investing-11623426213?mod=markets_lead_pos5","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147474880","content_text":"Understanding the difference between speculation and investing is essential to avoiding reckless risk.\n\nI’ve had it.\nThe Wall Street Journal is wrong, and has remained wrong for decades, about one of the most basic distinctions in finance. And I can’t stand it anymore.\nIf you buy a stock purely because it’s gone up a lot, without doing any research on it whatsoever, you are not—as the Journal and its editors bizarrely insist on calling you—an “investor.” If you buy a cryptocurrency because, hey, that sounds like fun, you aren’t an investor either.\nWhenever you buy any financial asset becauseyou have a hunchorjust for kicks, or becausesomebody famous is hyping the heck out of itoreverybody else seems to be buying it too, you aren’t investing.\nYou’re definitely a trader: someone who has just bought an asset. And you may bea speculator: someone who thinks other people will pay more for it than you did.\nOf course,some folkswho buy meme stocks likeGameStopCorp.GME5.88%areinvestors. They read the companies’ financial statements, study the health of the underlying businesses and learn who else is betting on or against the shares. Likewise, many buyers of digital coins have put in the time and effort to understand how cryptocurrency works and how it could reshape finance.\nAn investor relies on internal sources of return: earnings, income, growth in the value of assets. A speculator counts on external sources of return: primarilywhether somebody else will pay more, regardless of fundamental value.\nThe word investor comes from the Latin “investire,” to dress in or clothe oneself, surround or envelop. You would never wear clothes without knowing what color they are or what material they’re made of. Likewise, you can’t invest in an asset you know nothing about.\nNevertheless, the Journal and its editors have long called almost everybody who buys just about anything an “investor.” On July 12, 1962, the Journal publisheda letter to the editorfrom Benjamin Graham, author of the classic books “Security Analysis” and “The Intelligent Investor.” That June, complained Graham, the Journal had run an article headlined “Many Small Investors Bet on Further Drops, Sell Odd Lots Short.”\nHe wrote: “By what definition of ‘investment’ can one give the name ‘investors’ to small people who make bets on the stock market by selling odd lots short?” (To short an odd lot is to borrow and sell fewer than 100 shares in a wager that a stock will fall—an expensive and risky bet, then and now.)\n“If these people are investors,” asked Graham, “how should one define ‘speculation’ and ‘speculators’? Isn’t it possible that the currentfailure to distinguishbetweeninvestment and speculationmay do grave harm not only to individuals but to the whole financial community—as it did in the late 1920s?”\nGraham wasn’t a snob who thought that the markets should be the exclusive playground of the rich. He wrote “The Intelligent Investor” with the express purpose of helping less-wealthy people participate wisely in the stock market.\nIn that book, after which this column is named, Graham said, “Outright speculation is neither illegal, immoral, nor (for most people) fattening to the pocketbook.”\nHowever, he warned, it creates three dangers: “(1) speculating when you think you are investing; (2) speculating seriously instead of as a pastime, when you lack proper knowledge and skill for it; and (3) risking more money in speculation than you can afford to lose.”\nMost investors speculate a bit every once in a while. Like a lottery ticket or an occasional visit to the racetrack or casino, a little is harmless fun. A lot isn’t.\nIf you think you’re investing when you’re speculating, you’ll attribute even momentary success to skill even thoughluck is the likeliest explanation. That can lead you to take reckless risks.\nTake speculating too seriously, and it turns intoan obsessionandan addiction. You become incapable of accepting your losses or focusing on the future more than a few minutes ahead. Next thing you know, you’re throwing even more money onto the bonfire.\nI think calling traders and speculators “investors” shoves many newcomers farther down the slippery slope toward risks they shouldn’t take and losses they can’t afford. I fervently hope the Journal and its editors will finally stop using “investor” as the default term for anyone who makes a trade.\n“ ‘Investor’ has a long history in the English language as a catch-all term denoting people who commit capital with the expectation of a return, no matter how long or short, no matter how many or how few investing columns they read,” WSJ Financial Editor Charles Forelle said in response to my complaints. “Back at least to the mid-19th century, ‘invest’ has even been used to describe a wager on horses—an activity surely no less divorced from fundamental analysis than a purchase of dogecoin.”\nI hear you, Boss, but I still think you’re wrong. There’s no way the Journal would say a recreational gambler is “investing” at the racetrack just because a dictionary says we can.\nCalling novice speculators “investors” is one of the most powerful ways marketers fuel excessive trading.\nIna recent Instagram post, a former porn star who goes by the name Lana Rhoades posed in—well, mostly in—a bikini, as she held up what appears to be Graham’s “The Intelligent Investor.” According to IMDb.com, she starred in such videos as “Tushy” and “Make Me Meow.”\nIn her post, which was “liked” by nearly 1.8 million people, Ms. Rhoades announced that she will be promoting a cryptocurrency calledPAWGcoin.\nThe currency’s website says the coin is meant for “those who pay homage to developed posteriors.” (PAWG, I’ve been reliably informed, stands for Phat Ass White Girl.)\nPAWGcoin is up roughly 900% since Ms. Rhoades began promoting it in early June, according to Poocoin.io, a website that tracks such digital currencies.\nMs. Rhoades, who has tweeted “I also read the WSJ every morning,” couldn’t be reached for comment. PAWGcoin’s website encourages visitors to “invest now.”\nIn Ms. Rhoades’s Instagram post, she is holding up an open copy of the “The Intelligent Investor,” whose cover is reversed. She appears to be reading it with her eyes closed.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1090,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181116104,"gmtCreate":1623378151808,"gmtModify":1634033992993,"author":{"id":"3581899057268262","authorId":"3581899057268262","name":"CK11","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0923eb4b52245eb1bf4d6c510566f9f5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581899057268262","idStr":"3581899057268262"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Phone =iPhone &amp; EV car =.....?&nbsp;","listText":"Phone =iPhone &amp; EV car =.....?&nbsp;","text":"Phone =iPhone & EV car =.....?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181116104","repostId":"1147547408","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1524,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":189574893,"gmtCreate":1623283680512,"gmtModify":1634035051678,"author":{"id":"3581899057268262","authorId":"3581899057268262","name":"CK11","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0923eb4b52245eb1bf4d6c510566f9f5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581899057268262","idStr":"3581899057268262"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"No wonder hacker still around..&nbsp;","listText":"No wonder hacker still around..&nbsp;","text":"No wonder hacker still around..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/189574893","repostId":"2142243614","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1458,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":180209593,"gmtCreate":1623204152512,"gmtModify":1634035837961,"author":{"id":"3581899057268262","authorId":"3581899057268262","name":"CK11","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0923eb4b52245eb1bf4d6c510566f9f5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581899057268262","idStr":"3581899057268262"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"MSFT still a growth story.&nbsp;","listText":"MSFT still a growth story.&nbsp;","text":"MSFT still a growth story.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/180209593","repostId":"1193765977","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1367,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":117365906,"gmtCreate":1623117670005,"gmtModify":1634036753420,"author":{"id":"3581899057268262","authorId":"3581899057268262","name":"CK11","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0923eb4b52245eb1bf4d6c510566f9f5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581899057268262","idStr":"3581899057268262"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Don't be so serious..&nbsp;","listText":"Don't be so serious..&nbsp;","text":"Don't be so serious..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/117365906","repostId":"1113815269","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1017,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":115515659,"gmtCreate":1623022584671,"gmtModify":1634096250157,"author":{"id":"3581899057268262","authorId":"3581899057268262","name":"CK11","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0923eb4b52245eb1bf4d6c510566f9f5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581899057268262","idStr":"3581899057268262"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Is this a good new?&nbsp;","listText":"Is this a good new?&nbsp;","text":"Is this a good new?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/115515659","repostId":"2141281322","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1218,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112613245,"gmtCreate":1622865392287,"gmtModify":1634097218384,"author":{"id":"3581899057268262","authorId":"3581899057268262","name":"CK11","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0923eb4b52245eb1bf4d6c510566f9f5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581899057268262","idStr":"3581899057268262"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"MSFT.&nbsp;","listText":"MSFT.&nbsp;","text":"MSFT.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/112613245","repostId":"2140540596","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1315,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":116339362,"gmtCreate":1622773161356,"gmtModify":1634098149548,"author":{"id":"3581899057268262","authorId":"3581899057268262","name":"CK11","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0923eb4b52245eb1bf4d6c510566f9f5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581899057268262","idStr":"3581899057268262"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"EV is for long term.&nbsp;","listText":"EV is for long term.&nbsp;","text":"EV is for long term.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/116339362","repostId":"1110094207","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1083,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":113128272,"gmtCreate":1622598881596,"gmtModify":1634100066499,"author":{"id":"3581899057268262","authorId":"3581899057268262","name":"CK11","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0923eb4b52245eb1bf4d6c510566f9f5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581899057268262","idStr":"3581899057268262"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"The world take times to go back to normal life..&nbsp;","listText":"The world take times to go back to normal life..&nbsp;","text":"The world take times to go back to normal life..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/113128272","repostId":"1146862408","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1033,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":152242901,"gmtCreate":1625302572303,"gmtModify":1633941589974,"author":{"id":"3581899057268262","authorId":"3581899057268262","name":"CK11","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0923eb4b52245eb1bf4d6c510566f9f5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581899057268262","idStr":"3581899057268262"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Excited..&nbsp;","listText":"Excited..&nbsp;","text":"Excited..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":27,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/152242901","repostId":"1146176335","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146176335","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625277627,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1146176335?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-03 10:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can Alibaba Turn Around Its Woes in the Second Half of 2021?<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW能在2021年下半年扭转困境吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146176335","media":"The Street","summary":"Alibaba has been a sore laggard compared with its large- and mega-cap peers. Can that change in the second half of 2021?Alibaba  -Get Report has been a total dog so far this year. Shares were trading well into the fourth quarter of 2020 but then a string of issues pummeled the stock.Regulators disrupted Ant's initial public offering, then dug deeper on Alibaba and dialed up the heat.Investors don’t like regulatory issues as it is but particularly when we’re dealing with Chinese regulators.Howeve","content":"<p>  Alibaba has been a sore laggard compared with its large- and mega-cap peers. Can that change in the second half of 2021?  Alibaba&nbsp;(<b>BABA</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;has been a total dog so far this year. Shares were trading well into the fourth quarter of 2020 but then a string of issues pummeled the stock.</p><p><blockquote>与大型和超大型同行相比，阿里巴巴-SW一直处于严重落后状态。这种情况会在2021年下半年改变吗？阿里巴巴-SW（<b>爸爸</b>) -Get Report 今年到目前为止一直很糟糕。股票交易一直持续到 2020 年第四季度，但随后一系列问题重创了该股。</blockquote></p><p> Regulators disrupted Ant's initial public offering, then dug deeper on Alibaba and dialed up the heat.</p><p><blockquote>监管机构扰乱了蚂蚁的首次公开募股，然后更深入地挖掘了阿里巴巴-SW并提高了热度。</blockquote></p><p> Investors don’t like regulatory issues as it is but particularly when we’re dealing with Chinese regulators.</p><p><blockquote>投资者不喜欢监管问题，尤其是在我们与中国监管机构打交道时。</blockquote></p><p> However, in April, Alibaba paid a smaller-than-expectedbut still record fine, hoping to puts its regulatory issues behind it. Still, the stock hasn’t responded the way bulls were hoping.</p><p><blockquote>然而，4月份，阿里巴巴-SW支付了低于预期但仍创纪录的罚款，希望将其监管问题抛诸脑后。尽管如此，该股的反应并未如多头所希望的那样。</blockquote></p><p> All of this comes as the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq continue to grind outnew all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>所有这一切都发生在标普500和纳斯达克继续突破历史新高之际。</blockquote></p><p> It also comes as FAANG stocks continue to trade incredibly well. Alphabet&nbsp;(<b>GOOGL</b>) -Get Reportis the top performerwith a near-40% gain in the first half of the year, while Netflix&nbsp;(<b>NFLX</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;is the worst, with a 2.3% drop.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，FAANG 股票继续表现令人难以置信的良好。Alphabet（<b>GOOGL</b>) - Get Reportis 是表现最好的公司，上半年涨幅接近 40%，而 Netflix (<b>NFLX</b>) -Get Report 最差，下降了 2.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has a similar first-half performance, down 2.6%. However, it’s doing far worse from the highs, down more than 30%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW上半年表现类似，下跌2.6%。然而，它的表现比高点要糟糕得多，下跌了 30% 以上。</blockquote></p><p> Can it turn around its woes in the second half and start rallying higher?</p><p><blockquote>它能否在下半年扭转颓势并开始走高？</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9975f383919ff8cfc34fca49a32d8e8f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"494\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Call me a hopeless optimist, but I feel that Alibaba can have a solid second-half performance.</p><p><blockquote>看涨期权对我来说是一个绝望的乐观主义者，但我觉得阿里巴巴-SW下半场可以有稳定的表现。</blockquote></p><p> The overall market has done too well and so has large-cap tech. The fundamentals of the business are intact and growth is strong. It’s like Amazon&nbsp;(<b>AMZN</b>) -Get Report.Eventually, it will perform better&nbsp;- it’s a question of “when” and not “if.”</p><p><blockquote>整体市场表现太好了，大型科技股也是如此。业务基本面完好无损，增长强劲。这就像亚马逊（<b>亚马逊</b>)-获取报告。最终，它的表现会更好--这是一个 “何时 ”的问题，而不是 “是否 ”的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Shares continue to hold the $210 to $212 area and have recently cleared downtrend resistance (blue line). That said, there’s plenty of overhead hurdles.</p><p><blockquote>股价继续保持在 210 美元至 212 美元区域，并最近清除了下降趋势阻力（蓝线）。尽管如此，仍有很多障碍。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, Alibaba stock is struggling with the 21-week moving average, as well as the 21-month and 10-month moving averages.</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，阿里巴巴-SW股票正在与 21 周移动平均线以及 21 个月和 10 个月移动平均线作斗争。</blockquote></p><p> Let’s be clear: There are not a lot of bullish technical components here. If Alibaba stock could hold the 10-week moving average on this week’s dip, I’d feel better about it.</p><p><blockquote>让我们明确一点：这里没有太多看涨的技术成分。如果阿里巴巴-SW股市能在本周的下跌中守住 10 周移动平均线，我会感觉更好。</blockquote></p><p> However, as long as it can hold up over the $210 level and really, the 200-week moving average, I feel okay about Alibaba going into the next six months.</p><p><blockquote>然而，只要它能够保持在 210 美元的水平上方，实际上是 200 周移动平均线上方，我对阿里巴巴-SW未来六个月的走势感到满意。</blockquote></p><p> A push over $235 - thus putting it over all of the moving average hurdles mentioned above - could open up a run to $250, then $263. Above $275 and $300 is in play.</p><p><blockquote>突破 235 美元（从而突破上述所有移动平均线障碍）可能会上涨至 250 美元，然后上涨至 263 美元。275美元以上和300美元正在发挥作用。</blockquote></p><p> Keep the risk in mind but this could be a solid second-half rebound play.</p><p><blockquote>记住风险，但这可能是一个坚实的下半场反弹比赛。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610613172068","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can Alibaba Turn Around Its Woes in the Second Half of 2021?<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW能在2021年下半年扭转困境吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan Alibaba Turn Around Its Woes in the Second Half of 2021?<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW能在2021年下半年扭转困境吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Street</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-03 10:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  Alibaba has been a sore laggard compared with its large- and mega-cap peers. Can that change in the second half of 2021?  Alibaba&nbsp;(<b>BABA</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;has been a total dog so far this year. Shares were trading well into the fourth quarter of 2020 but then a string of issues pummeled the stock.</p><p><blockquote>与大型和超大型同行相比，阿里巴巴-SW一直处于严重落后状态。这种情况会在2021年下半年改变吗？阿里巴巴-SW（<b>爸爸</b>) -Get Report 今年到目前为止一直很糟糕。股票交易一直持续到 2020 年第四季度，但随后一系列问题重创了该股。</blockquote></p><p> Regulators disrupted Ant's initial public offering, then dug deeper on Alibaba and dialed up the heat.</p><p><blockquote>监管机构扰乱了蚂蚁的首次公开募股，然后更深入地挖掘了阿里巴巴-SW并提高了热度。</blockquote></p><p> Investors don’t like regulatory issues as it is but particularly when we’re dealing with Chinese regulators.</p><p><blockquote>投资者不喜欢监管问题，尤其是在我们与中国监管机构打交道时。</blockquote></p><p> However, in April, Alibaba paid a smaller-than-expectedbut still record fine, hoping to puts its regulatory issues behind it. Still, the stock hasn’t responded the way bulls were hoping.</p><p><blockquote>然而，4月份，阿里巴巴-SW支付了低于预期但仍创纪录的罚款，希望将其监管问题抛诸脑后。尽管如此，该股的反应并未如多头所希望的那样。</blockquote></p><p> All of this comes as the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq continue to grind outnew all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>所有这一切都发生在标普500和纳斯达克继续突破历史新高之际。</blockquote></p><p> It also comes as FAANG stocks continue to trade incredibly well. Alphabet&nbsp;(<b>GOOGL</b>) -Get Reportis the top performerwith a near-40% gain in the first half of the year, while Netflix&nbsp;(<b>NFLX</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;is the worst, with a 2.3% drop.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，FAANG 股票继续表现令人难以置信的良好。Alphabet（<b>GOOGL</b>) - Get Reportis 是表现最好的公司，上半年涨幅接近 40%，而 Netflix (<b>NFLX</b>) -Get Report 最差，下降了 2.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has a similar first-half performance, down 2.6%. However, it’s doing far worse from the highs, down more than 30%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW上半年表现类似，下跌2.6%。然而，它的表现比高点要糟糕得多，下跌了 30% 以上。</blockquote></p><p> Can it turn around its woes in the second half and start rallying higher?</p><p><blockquote>它能否在下半年扭转颓势并开始走高？</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9975f383919ff8cfc34fca49a32d8e8f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"494\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Call me a hopeless optimist, but I feel that Alibaba can have a solid second-half performance.</p><p><blockquote>看涨期权对我来说是一个绝望的乐观主义者，但我觉得阿里巴巴-SW下半场可以有稳定的表现。</blockquote></p><p> The overall market has done too well and so has large-cap tech. The fundamentals of the business are intact and growth is strong. It’s like Amazon&nbsp;(<b>AMZN</b>) -Get Report.Eventually, it will perform better&nbsp;- it’s a question of “when” and not “if.”</p><p><blockquote>整体市场表现太好了，大型科技股也是如此。业务基本面完好无损，增长强劲。这就像亚马逊（<b>亚马逊</b>)-获取报告。最终，它的表现会更好--这是一个 “何时 ”的问题，而不是 “是否 ”的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Shares continue to hold the $210 to $212 area and have recently cleared downtrend resistance (blue line). That said, there’s plenty of overhead hurdles.</p><p><blockquote>股价继续保持在 210 美元至 212 美元区域，并最近清除了下降趋势阻力（蓝线）。尽管如此，仍有很多障碍。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, Alibaba stock is struggling with the 21-week moving average, as well as the 21-month and 10-month moving averages.</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，阿里巴巴-SW股票正在与 21 周移动平均线以及 21 个月和 10 个月移动平均线作斗争。</blockquote></p><p> Let’s be clear: There are not a lot of bullish technical components here. If Alibaba stock could hold the 10-week moving average on this week’s dip, I’d feel better about it.</p><p><blockquote>让我们明确一点：这里没有太多看涨的技术成分。如果阿里巴巴-SW股市能在本周的下跌中守住 10 周移动平均线，我会感觉更好。</blockquote></p><p> However, as long as it can hold up over the $210 level and really, the 200-week moving average, I feel okay about Alibaba going into the next six months.</p><p><blockquote>然而，只要它能够保持在 210 美元的水平上方，实际上是 200 周移动平均线上方，我对阿里巴巴-SW未来六个月的走势感到满意。</blockquote></p><p> A push over $235 - thus putting it over all of the moving average hurdles mentioned above - could open up a run to $250, then $263. Above $275 and $300 is in play.</p><p><blockquote>突破 235 美元（从而突破上述所有移动平均线障碍）可能会上涨至 250 美元，然后上涨至 263 美元。275美元以上和300美元正在发挥作用。</blockquote></p><p> Keep the risk in mind but this could be a solid second-half rebound play.</p><p><blockquote>记住风险，但这可能是一个坚实的下半场反弹比赛。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/alibaba-baba-stock-second-half-2021-trading?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO\">The Street</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09618":"京东集团-SW"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/alibaba-baba-stock-second-half-2021-trading?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146176335","content_text":"Alibaba has been a sore laggard compared with its large- and mega-cap peers. Can that change in the second half of 2021?\n\nAlibaba (BABA) -Get Report has been a total dog so far this year. Shares were trading well into the fourth quarter of 2020 but then a string of issues pummeled the stock.\nRegulators disrupted Ant's initial public offering, then dug deeper on Alibaba and dialed up the heat.\nInvestors don’t like regulatory issues as it is but particularly when we’re dealing with Chinese regulators.\nHowever, in April, Alibaba paid a smaller-than-expectedbut still record fine, hoping to puts its regulatory issues behind it. Still, the stock hasn’t responded the way bulls were hoping.\nAll of this comes as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq continue to grind outnew all-time highs.\nIt also comes as FAANG stocks continue to trade incredibly well. Alphabet (GOOGL) -Get Reportis the top performerwith a near-40% gain in the first half of the year, while Netflix (NFLX) -Get Report is the worst, with a 2.3% drop.\nAlibaba has a similar first-half performance, down 2.6%. However, it’s doing far worse from the highs, down more than 30%.\nCan it turn around its woes in the second half and start rallying higher?\n\nCall me a hopeless optimist, but I feel that Alibaba can have a solid second-half performance.\nThe overall market has done too well and so has large-cap tech. The fundamentals of the business are intact and growth is strong. It’s like Amazon (AMZN) -Get Report.Eventually, it will perform better - it’s a question of “when” and not “if.”\nShares continue to hold the $210 to $212 area and have recently cleared downtrend resistance (blue line). That said, there’s plenty of overhead hurdles.\nSpecifically, Alibaba stock is struggling with the 21-week moving average, as well as the 21-month and 10-month moving averages.\nLet’s be clear: There are not a lot of bullish technical components here. If Alibaba stock could hold the 10-week moving average on this week’s dip, I’d feel better about it.\nHowever, as long as it can hold up over the $210 level and really, the 200-week moving average, I feel okay about Alibaba going into the next six months.\nA push over $235 - thus putting it over all of the moving average hurdles mentioned above - could open up a run to $250, then $263. Above $275 and $300 is in play.\nKeep the risk in mind but this could be a solid second-half rebound play.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9,"09618":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3231,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168547305,"gmtCreate":1623979655407,"gmtModify":1634024845989,"author":{"id":"3581899057268262","authorId":"3581899057268262","name":"CK11","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0923eb4b52245eb1bf4d6c510566f9f5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581899057268262","idStr":"3581899057268262"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Baba is innovative company..&nbsp;","listText":"Baba is innovative company..&nbsp;","text":"Baba is innovative company..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":28,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168547305","repostId":"1175693382","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175693382","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623978463,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1175693382?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 09:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175693382","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.</li>  <li>The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.</li>  <li>The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.</li>  <li>We discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e63c77d4f3f3dc3d618e43044638bb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Yongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW可能是目前最被低估的成长型股票。</li><li>该公司在快速扩张的市场中拥有多种增长动力，这使得其估值看起来更加令人困惑。</li><li>短期技术面可能会随着潜在的双底价格行动信号而转向看涨。</li><li>我们将讨论公司的多重增长动力，让投资者自己判断。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>戴永元/iStock 未通过 Getty Images 发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Technical Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术论文</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7febf6ed056b0e3bc038321cdaad9b1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba’s&nbsp;stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.</p><p><blockquote>自 11 月 20 日初蚂蚁金服 IPO 被撤销以来，阿里巴巴-SW的股价经历了可怕的 8 个月，该股在低迷中萎靡不振，较高点下跌了 34%。在考虑其长期上升趋势的健康状况时，很明显，阿里巴巴具有相对较强的上升趋势偏差，并且在其关键的 50W 均线上总体上得到了良好的支撑。在过去 4 年中，它唯一一次失去关键的 50W MA 支撑位是在 2018 年熊市期间，当时阿里巴巴下跌了约 40%，但仍在重要的 200W MA 上方得到良好支撑，我们通常认为这是 “最后一道防线”。现在阿里巴巴再次面临类似的情况：下跌34%，失去了50W MA，但看起来在200W MA以上得到了很好的支撑。除此之外，价格行为分析中的一个有趣观察可能会导致价格行为交易者/投资者特别看涨：潜在的双底形成。阿里巴巴的价格似乎正在经历双底，就像 2018 年熊市期间一样，随后强劲反弹。因此，阿里巴巴目前的水平可能是一个可能的技术性买入切入点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的基本论点：快速扩张的增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba49f5881708929949c30628eedc5d4\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"578\"><span>Annual GMV. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年度GMV。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6c4ed3e2402f5af52b2dea8bab411\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"517\"><span>Annual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年度电子商务收入。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴的GMV从1.68吨人民币增长到7.49吨人民币，仅用了7年时间，复合年增长率达到了23.8%，增长率着实惊人。我们还看到其 GMV 增长转化为收入增长，其中国商业收入从 76.7 亿元人民币增长到 473.68 亿元人民币，过去 10 年的复合年增长率为 51%。虽然其国际足迹仍然小得多，但在过去10年中，其CAGR仍以30.42%的速度增长，这绝不是缓慢的。</blockquote></p><p> Even though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.</p><p><blockquote>尽管未来三年中国电子商务市场的增长速度预计将大幅放缓，复合年增长率为 12.4%，从 2021 年的 13.8 万亿元人民币（相当于 2.16 万亿元人民币）下降到 2024 年的 19.6 万亿元人民币（相当于 3.06 万亿元人民币），但庞大的市场规模仍然为阿里巴巴及其最接近的竞争对手提供了巨大的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe2dee43f267e1d1399c68e3ca60f36\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>E-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国电子商务收入数据来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.</p><p><blockquote>当我们将中国市场的增长率和规模与美国电子商务市场进行比较时，我们可以看到它们在规模和增长率上的巨大差异，因为美国电子商务市场从 2021 年到 2025 年的复合年增长率预计仅为 4.67%，大大低于中国的 12.4%。此外，美国市场的总收入预计也将达到约 5630 亿美元，相当于届时中国市场预期价值的 18%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a8d0d8a6a2dcdf667a6f33c6c9771\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>Peers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行息税前利润率和预计息税前利润率。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&amp;A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.</p><p><blockquote>尽管阿里巴巴-SW一直面临着来自其快速增长的主要竞争对手京东（纳斯达克股票代码：JD）和拼多多（纳斯达克股票代码：PDD）的越来越大的竞争压力，但阿里巴巴已经经营着一项利润更高的业务（息税前税前利润和自由现金流），并且预计将继续实现强劲的盈利能力展望未来，这将为该公司提供巨大的灵活性，以与京东和PDD正面竞争，以扩大其领导地位。投资者可能会注意到，阿里巴巴的息税前利润率受到了其 SG&amp;A 中反映的 27.82 亿美元一次性行政罚款的影响，因此其息税前利润率向下倾斜。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of&nbsp;823M AAC&nbsp;in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only&nbsp;100M AAC in Q2’C17&nbsp;as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>其中一个重要举措是公司决定进一步投资社区市场，这是 PDD 的主要电子商务战略，PDD 在最近一个季度共获得了 8.23 亿 AAC，而阿里巴巴的 8.91 亿 AAC。考虑到 2017 年第二季度 PDD 的 AAC 数量仅为 1 亿，而同期阿里巴巴的 AAC 数量为 4.66 亿，PDD 的 AAC 增长确实惊人。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.</p><p><blockquote>因此，增长势头肯定已经转移到社区市场领域，阿里巴巴需要拿出它的大枪（它已经拥有）来与PDD和京东争夺主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b83b69b08b1f4b11a26393c8e6eead5\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国社区团购的市场规模。数据来源：艾媒咨询</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计到 2022 年 1020 亿元人民币的总市场规模仅占阿里巴巴 21 财年中国商业收入的 21.5% 左右，但阿里巴巴不能错过 2019 年至 2022 年 3 年间 44.22% 的快速复合年增长率。虽然这个市场还比较小，但阿里巴巴不能让这个市场目前的领头羊：PDD在众人不知情的情况下，如此轻易地占据主导地位，吞噬早期的高增长率。当然，阿里巴巴必须竞争并争取其在这一领域的地位，并争取早期领导地位，以防止PDD扩大其领先优势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b2b4a8a182dc9846d8fb7e4039877\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"770\"><span>PDD profitability metrics &amp; revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PDD盈利指标和收入增长预测。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.</p><p><blockquote>从上图中我们可以观察到，PDD 预计将在未来几年继续快速增长其收入，尽管预计随后将恢复正常。更重要的是，PDD 预计未来还将不断提高其息税前利润和自由现金流盈利能力。这表明，社区市场是一个非常重要的增长动力，阿里巴巴必须利用其优势加以利用，才能在游戏初期否认 PDD 无可争议的领导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aadc32155b4108426a1a982e3b5b1c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>China public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公共云支出。来源：中国互联网观察；通道</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1538b9f7bdc8d6d35a72d9acf8ecbc\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Size of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云市场规模。数据来源：CAICT；新浪网</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴在中国公共云市场占有 40% 的份额，远远领先于其主要竞争对手。然而，值得注意的是，尽管阿里巴巴处于领先地位，但阿里巴巴仍处于大量投资模式，以继续扩大其市场份额，因为中国公共云市场预计将从 2017 年的 264.8 亿元人民币增长到 2023 年的 2307.4 亿元人民币，复合年增长率将达到 43.4%，这是一个令人难以置信的惊人增长率。当我们将中国的增长率与全球增长率（见下文）进行比较时，这一点尤为明显，因为全球公共云支出预计将从 2017 年的 1450 亿美元增长到 2022 年的 3970 亿美元，复合年增长率将达到 22.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06198c569504bc303c34563041dfb294\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Worldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云支出。数据来源：Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8482037f60575f964053ab732496bee3\" tg-width=\"1176\" tg-height=\"700\"><span>Worldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云市场份额。资料来源：CnTechPost；高德纳</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.</p><p><blockquote>因此，阿里云在 2020 年以 9.5% 的市场份额继续扩大对Alphabet（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOGL）（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOG）GCP 的领先优势，我并不感到惊讶。虽然亚马逊仍然是市场的明显领导者，但随着公共云支出的持续扩大，其市场份额大幅下降，这表明多个参与者存在巨大的增长潜力。凭借阿里巴巴在快速扩张的中国市场的领导地位，我越来越看好该细分市场未来的利润和自由现金流对阿里巴巴业绩的贡献。虽然阿里巴巴的云业务尚未实现息税前利润（21 财年息税前利润率：-15%，20 财年息税前利润率：-17.5%），但值得注意的是，Alphabet的 GCP 也没有实现盈利（20 财年息税前利润率：-42.9%，19 财年息税前利润率：-52%）。因此，我们需要给阿里巴巴一些时间来扩大其在亚太地区和中国的云服务，预计阿里巴巴将在这些地区拥有更强大的领导地位，使其能够更快地增长，投资者应该预计随着时间的推移，这将是一个高利润的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的估值看起来非常有说服力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a087c4b3ef7efc2c5dde813e3b959d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>NTM TEV/息税前利润3年范围。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2605c0e5ad364a7a43929fef204595c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\"><span>EV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>电动汽车/前轮驱动息税前利润和电动汽车/前轮驱动转速趋势。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑到阿里巴巴的 TEV / EBIT 历史范围（3 年平均值为 33.54 倍）时，阿里巴巴的 EV / Fwd EBIT 趋势无疑意味着该股被严重低估，因为阿里巴巴的收入和营业利润仍有望快速增长。不过，由于我们希望更清楚地了解阿里巴巴的息税前利润是如何估值的，因此我们认为，如果我们对阿里巴巴的息税前利润进行估值，这将是有用的，如下所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27873e676dfb23c98d4a69aa5861e02\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1117\"><span>Peers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行EV/EBIT估值。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.</p><p><blockquote>通过混合使用历史息税前利润和远期息税前利润，我们可以看到，与基准公司的一组观察值的中值相比，阿里巴巴的电动汽车/息税前利润看起来确实被低估了。我们得出阿里巴巴在区间中点的公允价值区间为 294.98 美元，基于当前 210 美元的股价，这代表着 40.5% 的潜在上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks to Assumptions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>假设风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.</p><p><blockquote>现在，看着 Mr.市场决定对阿里巴巴进行折扣，就好像该公司已经失去了所有关键的增长来源，而事实上，其商业部门、新的市场计划和不断增长的阿里云部门等仍有很大的潜在上涨空间。我们认为该股表现不佳的主要现实原因仅仅是监管风险。我们认为投资者应该认识到这种风险是非常真实的，有时大型中国公司会发现自己受到中国政府的额外审查（事实上这并不是什么新鲜事）。关键在于，中国政府似乎对其科技巨头的行为和行动拥有巨大的影响力，而这些行为和行动有时在很大程度上是不可预测的。市场当然讨厌不可预测性，因此他们可能因此大幅打折阿里巴巴。如果投资者无法应对潜在不可预测的监管行动及其后果的不确定性，那么阿里巴巴可能不适合您。然而，如果你认为这只是阿里巴巴漫长征程中的一个昙花一现，那么你一定会发现阿里巴巴现在的估值极具吸引力，再加上长期思维。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切都包起来</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW继续交付稳健的业绩，证明了该公司良好执行的强大能力。由于公司将继续在一个拥有众多增长动力的市场中运营，这些增长动力有望推动公司未来的增长，投资者应该会发现目前的估值极具吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 09:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.</li>  <li>The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.</li>  <li>The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.</li>  <li>We discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e63c77d4f3f3dc3d618e43044638bb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Yongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW可能是目前最被低估的成长型股票。</li><li>该公司在快速扩张的市场中拥有多种增长动力，这使得其估值看起来更加令人困惑。</li><li>短期技术面可能会随着潜在的双底价格行动信号而转向看涨。</li><li>我们将讨论公司的多重增长动力，让投资者自己判断。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>戴永元/iStock 未通过 Getty Images 发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Technical Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术论文</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7febf6ed056b0e3bc038321cdaad9b1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba’s&nbsp;stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.</p><p><blockquote>自 11 月 20 日初蚂蚁金服 IPO 被撤销以来，阿里巴巴-SW的股价经历了可怕的 8 个月，该股在低迷中萎靡不振，较高点下跌了 34%。在考虑其长期上升趋势的健康状况时，很明显，阿里巴巴具有相对较强的上升趋势偏差，并且在其关键的 50W 均线上总体上得到了良好的支撑。在过去 4 年中，它唯一一次失去关键的 50W MA 支撑位是在 2018 年熊市期间，当时阿里巴巴下跌了约 40%，但仍在重要的 200W MA 上方得到良好支撑，我们通常认为这是 “最后一道防线”。现在阿里巴巴再次面临类似的情况：下跌34%，失去了50W MA，但看起来在200W MA以上得到了很好的支撑。除此之外，价格行为分析中的一个有趣观察可能会导致价格行为交易者/投资者特别看涨：潜在的双底形成。阿里巴巴的价格似乎正在经历双底，就像 2018 年熊市期间一样，随后强劲反弹。因此，阿里巴巴目前的水平可能是一个可能的技术性买入切入点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的基本论点：快速扩张的增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba49f5881708929949c30628eedc5d4\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"578\"><span>Annual GMV. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年度GMV。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6c4ed3e2402f5af52b2dea8bab411\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"517\"><span>Annual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年度电子商务收入。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴的GMV从1.68吨人民币增长到7.49吨人民币，仅用了7年时间，复合年增长率达到了23.8%，增长率着实惊人。我们还看到其 GMV 增长转化为收入增长，其中国商业收入从 76.7 亿元人民币增长到 473.68 亿元人民币，过去 10 年的复合年增长率为 51%。虽然其国际足迹仍然小得多，但在过去10年中，其CAGR仍以30.42%的速度增长，这绝不是缓慢的。</blockquote></p><p> Even though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.</p><p><blockquote>尽管未来三年中国电子商务市场的增长速度预计将大幅放缓，复合年增长率为 12.4%，从 2021 年的 13.8 万亿元人民币（相当于 2.16 万亿元人民币）下降到 2024 年的 19.6 万亿元人民币（相当于 3.06 万亿元人民币），但庞大的市场规模仍然为阿里巴巴及其最接近的竞争对手提供了巨大的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe2dee43f267e1d1399c68e3ca60f36\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>E-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国电子商务收入数据来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.</p><p><blockquote>当我们将中国市场的增长率和规模与美国电子商务市场进行比较时，我们可以看到它们在规模和增长率上的巨大差异，因为美国电子商务市场从 2021 年到 2025 年的复合年增长率预计仅为 4.67%，大大低于中国的 12.4%。此外，美国市场的总收入预计也将达到约 5630 亿美元，相当于届时中国市场预期价值的 18%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a8d0d8a6a2dcdf667a6f33c6c9771\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>Peers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行息税前利润率和预计息税前利润率。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&amp;A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.</p><p><blockquote>尽管阿里巴巴-SW一直面临着来自其快速增长的主要竞争对手京东（纳斯达克股票代码：JD）和拼多多（纳斯达克股票代码：PDD）的越来越大的竞争压力，但阿里巴巴已经经营着一项利润更高的业务（息税前税前利润和自由现金流），并且预计将继续实现强劲的盈利能力展望未来，这将为该公司提供巨大的灵活性，以与京东和PDD正面竞争，以扩大其领导地位。投资者可能会注意到，阿里巴巴的息税前利润率受到了其 SG&amp;A 中反映的 27.82 亿美元一次性行政罚款的影响，因此其息税前利润率向下倾斜。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of&nbsp;823M AAC&nbsp;in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only&nbsp;100M AAC in Q2’C17&nbsp;as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>其中一个重要举措是公司决定进一步投资社区市场，这是 PDD 的主要电子商务战略，PDD 在最近一个季度共获得了 8.23 亿 AAC，而阿里巴巴的 8.91 亿 AAC。考虑到 2017 年第二季度 PDD 的 AAC 数量仅为 1 亿，而同期阿里巴巴的 AAC 数量为 4.66 亿，PDD 的 AAC 增长确实惊人。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.</p><p><blockquote>因此，增长势头肯定已经转移到社区市场领域，阿里巴巴需要拿出它的大枪（它已经拥有）来与PDD和京东争夺主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b83b69b08b1f4b11a26393c8e6eead5\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国社区团购的市场规模。数据来源：艾媒咨询</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计到 2022 年 1020 亿元人民币的总市场规模仅占阿里巴巴 21 财年中国商业收入的 21.5% 左右，但阿里巴巴不能错过 2019 年至 2022 年 3 年间 44.22% 的快速复合年增长率。虽然这个市场还比较小，但阿里巴巴不能让这个市场目前的领头羊：PDD在众人不知情的情况下，如此轻易地占据主导地位，吞噬早期的高增长率。当然，阿里巴巴必须竞争并争取其在这一领域的地位，并争取早期领导地位，以防止PDD扩大其领先优势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b2b4a8a182dc9846d8fb7e4039877\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"770\"><span>PDD profitability metrics &amp; revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PDD盈利指标和收入增长预测。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.</p><p><blockquote>从上图中我们可以观察到，PDD 预计将在未来几年继续快速增长其收入，尽管预计随后将恢复正常。更重要的是，PDD 预计未来还将不断提高其息税前利润和自由现金流盈利能力。这表明，社区市场是一个非常重要的增长动力，阿里巴巴必须利用其优势加以利用，才能在游戏初期否认 PDD 无可争议的领导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aadc32155b4108426a1a982e3b5b1c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>China public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公共云支出。来源：中国互联网观察；通道</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1538b9f7bdc8d6d35a72d9acf8ecbc\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Size of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云市场规模。数据来源：CAICT；新浪网</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴在中国公共云市场占有 40% 的份额，远远领先于其主要竞争对手。然而，值得注意的是，尽管阿里巴巴处于领先地位，但阿里巴巴仍处于大量投资模式，以继续扩大其市场份额，因为中国公共云市场预计将从 2017 年的 264.8 亿元人民币增长到 2023 年的 2307.4 亿元人民币，复合年增长率将达到 43.4%，这是一个令人难以置信的惊人增长率。当我们将中国的增长率与全球增长率（见下文）进行比较时，这一点尤为明显，因为全球公共云支出预计将从 2017 年的 1450 亿美元增长到 2022 年的 3970 亿美元，复合年增长率将达到 22.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06198c569504bc303c34563041dfb294\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Worldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云支出。数据来源：Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8482037f60575f964053ab732496bee3\" tg-width=\"1176\" tg-height=\"700\"><span>Worldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云市场份额。资料来源：CnTechPost；高德纳</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.</p><p><blockquote>因此，阿里云在 2020 年以 9.5% 的市场份额继续扩大对Alphabet（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOGL）（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOG）GCP 的领先优势，我并不感到惊讶。虽然亚马逊仍然是市场的明显领导者，但随着公共云支出的持续扩大，其市场份额大幅下降，这表明多个参与者存在巨大的增长潜力。凭借阿里巴巴在快速扩张的中国市场的领导地位，我越来越看好该细分市场未来的利润和自由现金流对阿里巴巴业绩的贡献。虽然阿里巴巴的云业务尚未实现息税前利润（21 财年息税前利润率：-15%，20 财年息税前利润率：-17.5%），但值得注意的是，Alphabet的 GCP 也没有实现盈利（20 财年息税前利润率：-42.9%，19 财年息税前利润率：-52%）。因此，我们需要给阿里巴巴一些时间来扩大其在亚太地区和中国的云服务，预计阿里巴巴将在这些地区拥有更强大的领导地位，使其能够更快地增长，投资者应该预计随着时间的推移，这将是一个高利润的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的估值看起来非常有说服力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a087c4b3ef7efc2c5dde813e3b959d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>NTM TEV/息税前利润3年范围。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2605c0e5ad364a7a43929fef204595c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\"><span>EV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>电动汽车/前轮驱动息税前利润和电动汽车/前轮驱动转速趋势。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑到阿里巴巴的 TEV / EBIT 历史范围（3 年平均值为 33.54 倍）时，阿里巴巴的 EV / Fwd EBIT 趋势无疑意味着该股被严重低估，因为阿里巴巴的收入和营业利润仍有望快速增长。不过，由于我们希望更清楚地了解阿里巴巴的息税前利润是如何估值的，因此我们认为，如果我们对阿里巴巴的息税前利润进行估值，这将是有用的，如下所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27873e676dfb23c98d4a69aa5861e02\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1117\"><span>Peers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行EV/EBIT估值。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.</p><p><blockquote>通过混合使用历史息税前利润和远期息税前利润，我们可以看到，与基准公司的一组观察值的中值相比，阿里巴巴的电动汽车/息税前利润看起来确实被低估了。我们得出阿里巴巴在区间中点的公允价值区间为 294.98 美元，基于当前 210 美元的股价，这代表着 40.5% 的潜在上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks to Assumptions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>假设风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.</p><p><blockquote>现在，看着 Mr.市场决定对阿里巴巴进行折扣，就好像该公司已经失去了所有关键的增长来源，而事实上，其商业部门、新的市场计划和不断增长的阿里云部门等仍有很大的潜在上涨空间。我们认为该股表现不佳的主要现实原因仅仅是监管风险。我们认为投资者应该认识到这种风险是非常真实的，有时大型中国公司会发现自己受到中国政府的额外审查（事实上这并不是什么新鲜事）。关键在于，中国政府似乎对其科技巨头的行为和行动拥有巨大的影响力，而这些行为和行动有时在很大程度上是不可预测的。市场当然讨厌不可预测性，因此他们可能因此大幅打折阿里巴巴。如果投资者无法应对潜在不可预测的监管行动及其后果的不确定性，那么阿里巴巴可能不适合您。然而，如果你认为这只是阿里巴巴漫长征程中的一个昙花一现，那么你一定会发现阿里巴巴现在的估值极具吸引力，再加上长期思维。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切都包起来</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW继续交付稳健的业绩，证明了该公司良好执行的强大能力。由于公司将继续在一个拥有众多增长动力的市场中运营，这些增长动力有望推动公司未来的增长，投资者应该会发现目前的估值极具吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175693382","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.\nThe company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.\nThe short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.\nWe discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.\n\nYongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nThe Technical Thesis\nSource: TradingView\nAlibaba’s stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.\nBABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers\nAnnual GMV. Data source: Company filings\nAnnual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings\nBABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.\nEven though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.\nE-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista\nWhen we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.\nPeers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nEven though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.\nOne important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of 823M AAC in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only 100M AAC in Q2’C17 as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.\nTherefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.\nMarket size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research\nEven though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.\nPDD profitability metrics & revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWe could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.\nChina public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys\nSize of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn\nBABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.\nWorldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner\nWorldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner\nTherefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.\nBABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling\nNTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.\nEV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWhen we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.\nPeers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nBy using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.\nRisks to Assumptions\nNow, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.\nWrapping It All Up\nAlibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9,"09988":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4560,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":163484412,"gmtCreate":1623891405436,"gmtModify":1634026368950,"author":{"id":"3581899057268262","authorId":"3581899057268262","name":"CK11","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0923eb4b52245eb1bf4d6c510566f9f5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581899057268262","idStr":"3581899057268262"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good new for market.&nbsp;","listText":"Good new for market.&nbsp;","text":"Good new for market.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":26,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/163484412","repostId":"2144270718","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2769,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120204915,"gmtCreate":1624323597837,"gmtModify":1634007837209,"author":{"id":"3581899057268262","authorId":"3581899057268262","name":"CK11","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0923eb4b52245eb1bf4d6c510566f9f5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581899057268262","idStr":"3581899057268262"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Come again..&nbsp;","listText":"Come again..&nbsp;","text":"Come again..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":26,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120204915","repostId":"2145459036","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3549,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169052581,"gmtCreate":1623810123343,"gmtModify":1634027766176,"author":{"id":"3581899057268262","authorId":"3581899057268262","name":"CK11","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0923eb4b52245eb1bf4d6c510566f9f5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581899057268262","idStr":"3581899057268262"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Oh really?&nbsp;","listText":"Oh really?&nbsp;","text":"Oh really?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":23,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169052581","repostId":"1142443814","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142443814","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga Earnings","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1623802730,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1142443814?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-16 08:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Reasons Tech Stocks May Continue To Struggle<blockquote>科技股可能继续陷入困境的 3 个原因</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142443814","media":"Benzinga Earnings","summary":"So far in 2021, the Vanguard Value Index Fund ETF is up 17.4% nearly double the year-to-date return ","content":"<p>So far in 2021, the&nbsp;<b>Vanguard Value Index Fund ETF</b>&nbsp;is up 17.4% nearly double the year-to-date return of the<b>Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund</b>.</p><p><blockquote>2021年迄今为止，<b>先锋价值指数基金ETF</b>上涨 17.4%，几乎是今年迄今回报率的两倍<b>科技精选行业 SPDR 基金</b>.</blockquote></p><p> Over the past decade, periods of time in which tech stocks have lagged value stocks have been short and sweet, but LPL Financial said there are at least three reasons why tech may no longer be leading the market higher for the foreseeable future.</p><p><blockquote>在过去十年中，科技股落后于价值股的时期是短暂而甜蜜的，但 LPL Financial 表示，在可预见的未来，科技股可能不再引领市场走高，至少有三个原因。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>First, many tech stocks that thrived during the period of social distancing and remote working will face extremely difficult comps and report growth slowdowns in the next several quarters. At the same time, value stocks in the industrials, materials and energy sectors that struggled during the shutdowns will experience the tailwinds of pent-up demand from the reopening.</li>  <li>Second, the tech sector’s current forward earnings multiple of 25 is relatively high compared to its historical average. In addition, the Russell 1,000 Growth Index is currently valued at a 60% premium to the Russell 1,000 Value Index, its highest premium in the past 20 years.</li>  <li>Third, the technology sector appears to be rolling over from a technical standpoint. The sector has lagged the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of September, suggesting technology’s momentum has stalled out.</li> </ul> “It’s tough not to like technology given the strong fundamentals and rapid pace of innovation from many tech companies,” LPL Equity Strategist Jeffrey Buchbindersaid Tuesday.“But we expect cyclical value sectors like financials, industrials, and materials to fare better the rest of the year as the economy gets a reopening jolt.”</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>首先，许多在社交距离和远程工作时期蓬勃发展的科技股将面临极其困难的竞争，并在未来几个季度报告增长放缓。与此同时，在停工期间陷入困境的工业、材料和能源行业的价值股将经历重新开放带来的被压抑需求的顺风。</li><li>其次，与历史平均水平相比，科技行业目前 25 倍的远期市盈率相对较高。此外，罗素 1,000 增长指数目前的估值比罗素 1,000 价值指数溢价 60%，为过去 20 年来的最高溢价。</li><li>第三，从技术角度来看，科技板块似乎正在翻转。自 9 月初以来，该行业一直落后于标普500，这表明科技行业的发展势头已经停滞。</li></ul>“LPL股票策略师杰弗里-布赫宾德（Jeffrey Buchbinder）周二表示：”鉴于许多科技公司强劲的基本面和快速的创新步伐，很难不喜欢科技。“但我们预计，随着经济重新开放的冲击，金融、工业和材料等周期性价值行业将在今年剩余时间里表现更好。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Benzinga’s Take:</b>Just because tech stocks are no longer leading the market higher doesn’t mean investors should dump all their tech holdings for value stocks. There will still certainly be outperformers within the tech sector that are among the largest gainers in the market in 2021, but the easy money that has come from investing in the sector as a whole in the past decade may be much harder to come by in the next several quarters.</p><p><blockquote><b>Benzinga 的观点：</b>科技股不再引领市场走高，并不意味着投资者应该抛售所有科技股，转而购买价值股。科技行业肯定仍会有表现优异的公司成为 2021 年市场上涨幅最大的公司之一，但过去十年从整个行业投资中获得的轻松资金可能会更难在未来几个季度获得。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Reasons Tech Stocks May Continue To Struggle<blockquote>科技股可能继续陷入困境的 3 个原因</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Reasons Tech Stocks May Continue To Struggle<blockquote>科技股可能继续陷入困境的 3 个原因</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga Earnings </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-16 08:18</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>So far in 2021, the&nbsp;<b>Vanguard Value Index Fund ETF</b>&nbsp;is up 17.4% nearly double the year-to-date return of the<b>Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund</b>.</p><p><blockquote>2021年迄今为止，<b>先锋价值指数基金ETF</b>上涨 17.4%，几乎是今年迄今回报率的两倍<b>科技精选行业 SPDR 基金</b>.</blockquote></p><p> Over the past decade, periods of time in which tech stocks have lagged value stocks have been short and sweet, but LPL Financial said there are at least three reasons why tech may no longer be leading the market higher for the foreseeable future.</p><p><blockquote>在过去十年中，科技股落后于价值股的时期是短暂而甜蜜的，但 LPL Financial 表示，在可预见的未来，科技股可能不再引领市场走高，至少有三个原因。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>First, many tech stocks that thrived during the period of social distancing and remote working will face extremely difficult comps and report growth slowdowns in the next several quarters. At the same time, value stocks in the industrials, materials and energy sectors that struggled during the shutdowns will experience the tailwinds of pent-up demand from the reopening.</li>  <li>Second, the tech sector’s current forward earnings multiple of 25 is relatively high compared to its historical average. In addition, the Russell 1,000 Growth Index is currently valued at a 60% premium to the Russell 1,000 Value Index, its highest premium in the past 20 years.</li>  <li>Third, the technology sector appears to be rolling over from a technical standpoint. The sector has lagged the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of September, suggesting technology’s momentum has stalled out.</li> </ul> “It’s tough not to like technology given the strong fundamentals and rapid pace of innovation from many tech companies,” LPL Equity Strategist Jeffrey Buchbindersaid Tuesday.“But we expect cyclical value sectors like financials, industrials, and materials to fare better the rest of the year as the economy gets a reopening jolt.”</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>首先，许多在社交距离和远程工作时期蓬勃发展的科技股将面临极其困难的竞争，并在未来几个季度报告增长放缓。与此同时，在停工期间陷入困境的工业、材料和能源行业的价值股将经历重新开放带来的被压抑需求的顺风。</li><li>其次，与历史平均水平相比，科技行业目前 25 倍的远期市盈率相对较高。此外，罗素 1,000 增长指数目前的估值比罗素 1,000 价值指数溢价 60%，为过去 20 年来的最高溢价。</li><li>第三，从技术角度来看，科技板块似乎正在翻转。自 9 月初以来，该行业一直落后于标普500，这表明科技行业的发展势头已经停滞。</li></ul>“LPL股票策略师杰弗里-布赫宾德（Jeffrey Buchbinder）周二表示：”鉴于许多科技公司强劲的基本面和快速的创新步伐，很难不喜欢科技。“但我们预计，随着经济重新开放的冲击，金融、工业和材料等周期性价值行业将在今年剩余时间里表现更好。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Benzinga’s Take:</b>Just because tech stocks are no longer leading the market higher doesn’t mean investors should dump all their tech holdings for value stocks. There will still certainly be outperformers within the tech sector that are among the largest gainers in the market in 2021, but the easy money that has come from investing in the sector as a whole in the past decade may be much harder to come by in the next several quarters.</p><p><blockquote><b>Benzinga 的观点：</b>科技股不再引领市场走高，并不意味着投资者应该抛售所有科技股，转而购买价值股。科技行业肯定仍会有表现优异的公司成为 2021 年市场上涨幅最大的公司之一，但过去十年从整个行业投资中获得的轻松资金可能会更难在未来几个季度获得。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142443814","content_text":"So far in 2021, the Vanguard Value Index Fund ETF is up 17.4% nearly double the year-to-date return of theTechnology Select Sector SPDR Fund.\nOver the past decade, periods of time in which tech stocks have lagged value stocks have been short and sweet, but LPL Financial said there are at least three reasons why tech may no longer be leading the market higher for the foreseeable future.\n\nFirst, many tech stocks that thrived during the period of social distancing and remote working will face extremely difficult comps and report growth slowdowns in the next several quarters. At the same time, value stocks in the industrials, materials and energy sectors that struggled during the shutdowns will experience the tailwinds of pent-up demand from the reopening.\nSecond, the tech sector’s current forward earnings multiple of 25 is relatively high compared to its historical average. In addition, the Russell 1,000 Growth Index is currently valued at a 60% premium to the Russell 1,000 Value Index, its highest premium in the past 20 years.\nThird, the technology sector appears to be rolling over from a technical standpoint. The sector has lagged the S&P 500 since the beginning of September, suggesting technology’s momentum has stalled out.\n\n“It’s tough not to like technology given the strong fundamentals and rapid pace of innovation from many tech companies,” LPL Equity Strategist Jeffrey Buchbindersaid Tuesday.“But we expect cyclical value sectors like financials, industrials, and materials to fare better the rest of the year as the economy gets a reopening jolt.”\nBenzinga’s Take:Just because tech stocks are no longer leading the market higher doesn’t mean investors should dump all their tech holdings for value stocks. There will still certainly be outperformers within the tech sector that are among the largest gainers in the market in 2021, but the easy money that has come from investing in the sector as a whole in the past decade may be much harder to come by in the next several quarters.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3105,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":605214203,"gmtCreate":1639180761606,"gmtModify":1639180765977,"author":{"id":"3581899057268262","authorId":"3581899057268262","name":"CK11","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0923eb4b52245eb1bf4d6c510566f9f5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581899057268262","idStr":"3581899057268262"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Is this an opportunity?&nbsp;","listText":"Is this an opportunity?&nbsp;","text":"Is this an opportunity?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":13,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/605214203","repostId":"1134450838","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1134450838","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1639148939,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1134450838?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-10 23:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Grab shares dropped another 9% in morning trading<blockquote>Grab 股价在早盘交易中又下跌 9%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134450838","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Grab shares dropped another 9% in morning trading after falling more than 9% yesterday.","content":"<p>Grab shares dropped another 9% in morning trading after falling more than 9% yesterday.</p><p><blockquote>继昨天下跌超过 9% 后，Grab 股价在早盘交易中又下跌 9%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/963eb8dd73ce8daa0d852d63f0bcc276\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Grab shares dropped another 9% in morning trading<blockquote>Grab 股价在早盘交易中又下跌 9%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGrab shares dropped another 9% in morning trading<blockquote>Grab 股价在早盘交易中又下跌 9%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-10 23:08</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Grab shares dropped another 9% in morning trading after falling more than 9% yesterday.</p><p><blockquote>继昨天下跌超过 9% 后，Grab 股价在早盘交易中又下跌 9%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/963eb8dd73ce8daa0d852d63f0bcc276\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GRAB":"Grab Holdings"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1134450838","content_text":"Grab shares dropped another 9% in morning trading after falling more than 9% yesterday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GRAB":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4059,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":810950799,"gmtCreate":1629940699311,"gmtModify":1633681305457,"author":{"id":"3581899057268262","authorId":"3581899057268262","name":"CK11","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0923eb4b52245eb1bf4d6c510566f9f5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581899057268262","idStr":"3581899057268262"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/810950799","repostId":"1197778368","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2617,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185088144,"gmtCreate":1623627286888,"gmtModify":1634031128248,"author":{"id":"3581899057268262","authorId":"3581899057268262","name":"CK11","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0923eb4b52245eb1bf4d6c510566f9f5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581899057268262","idStr":"3581899057268262"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Grab app offer a lot of stuff now..&nbsp;","listText":"Grab app offer a lot of stuff now..&nbsp;","text":"Grab app offer a lot of stuff now..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185088144","repostId":"1128243947","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3321,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":107094433,"gmtCreate":1620432186922,"gmtModify":1634198879079,"author":{"id":"3581899057268262","authorId":"3581899057268262","name":"CK11","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0923eb4b52245eb1bf4d6c510566f9f5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581899057268262","idStr":"3581899057268262"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Crazy high will follow by crazy crash?&nbsp;","listText":"Crazy high will follow by crazy crash?&nbsp;","text":"Crazy high will follow by crazy crash?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/107094433","repostId":"1120904578","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120904578","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620429937,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1120904578?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-08 07:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"S&P 500, Dow hit record highs as weak jobs data eases rate worries<blockquote>疲软的就业数据缓解了利率担忧，标普500和道琼斯指数创下历史新高</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120904578","media":"Reuters","summary":"The Dow and S&P 500 hit record closing highs on Friday while registering gains for the week, and the","content":"<p>The Dow and S&amp;P 500 hit record closing highs on Friday while registering gains for the week, and the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a> recovered after U.S. jobs data eased concerns over prospects for rising rates.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯指数和标普500指数周五创下收盘新高，本周上涨，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">纳斯达克</a>美国就业数据缓解了人们对加息前景的担忧后复苏。</blockquote></p><p>U.S. job growth&nbsp;unexpectedly slowed&nbsp;in April, likely restrained by shortages of workers, the Labor Department report showed.</p><p><blockquote>劳工部报告显示，美国4月份就业增长意外放缓，可能受到工人短缺的限制。</blockquote></p><p>The report alleviated some concerns about rising inflation and potentially higher U.S. interest rates, which some investors worry would hurt growth companies with high valuations.</p><p><blockquote>该报告缓解了对通胀上升和美国利率潜在上升的一些担忧，一些投资者担心这将损害高估值的成长型公司。</blockquote></p><p>“Growth names that were taken to the woodshed are getting another chance, because they will be perceived to be less risky in an environment where there is a slower recovery, and that’s really what the jobs data is indicating”, said Tom Martin, senior portfolio manager at Globalt Investments.</p><p><blockquote>“Globalt Investments 高级投资组合经理汤姆-马丁（Tom Martin）说：”那些被淘汰的成长型股票又获得了一次机会，因为在复苏放缓的环境中，它们会被认为风险较小，而就业数据正是表明了这一点。</blockquote></p><p>Heavily-weighted growth stocks such as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a> Corp MSFT.O and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a> Inc AAPL.O rose by 1.1% and 0.5%, respectively, giving the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq their biggest boosts.</p><p><blockquote>权重较大的成长股，例如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>公司MSFT.O和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>Inc AAPL.O 分别上涨 1.1% 和 0.5%，给标普500和纳斯达克带来最大提振。</blockquote></p><p>But gains were broad-based, with all major S&amp;P 500 sectors ending in the green and energy SPNY and real estate SPLRCR leading the advance. Energy and materials SPLRCM both hit fresh highs.</p><p><blockquote>但涨幅是广泛的，所有主要标普500板块均以绿色和能源 SPNY 收盘，房地产 SPLRCR 领涨。能源和材料SPLRCM均创下新高。</blockquote></p><p>The Dow .DJI rose 229.23 points, or 0.66%, to 34,777.76, the S&amp;P 500 .SPX gained 30.98 points, or 0.74%, to 4,232.6 and the Nasdaq Composite .IXIC added 119.40 points, or 0.88%, to 13,752.24.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯指数上涨229.23点，或0.66%，至34,777.76点；标普500指数上涨30.98点，或0.74%，至4,232.6点；纳斯达克综合指数上涨119.40点，或0.88%，至13,752.24点。</blockquote></p><p>For the week, the Dow rose 2.7%, its biggest weekly percentage gain since March. The S&amp;P 500 gained 1.2%, its best week since mid-April, while the Nasdaq shed 1.5%.</p><p><blockquote>本周道琼斯指数上涨 2.7%，为 3 月份以来最大单周百分比涨幅。标普500指数上涨 1.2%，为 4 月中旬以来最好的一周，而纳斯达克指数下跌 1.5%。</blockquote></p><p>“The anticipation and confirmation of (Federal Reserve) policy staying the same and continued economic recovery with vaccines rollout have fueled these all-time highs, but we do believe the volatility is going to be tightened in the short term,” said Greg Bassuk, chief executive at Axs Investments.</p><p><blockquote>“Axs Investments 首席执行官格雷格-巴苏克（Greg Bassuk）说：”（美联储）政策保持不变的预期和确认，以及随着疫苗的推出，经济持续复苏，推动了这些历史新高，但我们确实认为，短期内波动性将会加剧。</blockquote></p><p>A raft of upbeat earnings also helped stocks, and S&amp;P 500 earnings are now estimated to have increased 50.4% in the first quarter from a year ago, which would be the highest growth rate since the first quarter of 2010, according to Refinitiv data.</p><p><blockquote>大量乐观的盈利也帮助了股市，根据路孚特的数据，目前预计标普500第一季度盈利将比去年同期增长 50.4%，这将是自 2010 年第一季度以来的最高增长率。</blockquote></p><p>Payments firm <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">Square</a> Inc SQ.N rose 4.2% after reporting a better-than-expected quarterly profit, as surging demand for bitcoin fueled a jump in cryptocurrency transactions on its application. (Full Story)</p><p><blockquote>支付公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">平方</a>Inc SQ.N 公布好于预期的季度利润后上涨 4.2%，因为对比特币的需求激增推动了其应用程序上加密货币交易的激增。（全文）</blockquote></p><p>Streaming device maker <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ROKU\">Roku Inc</a> ROKU.O jumped 11.5%following an upbeat revenue outlook, while fitness equipment maker Peloton Interactive Inc PTON.O gained as it laid out steps to improve the safety of its equipment. (Full Story) (Full Story)</p><p><blockquote>流媒体设备制造商<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ROKU\">Roku公司</a>ROKU.O 因营收前景乐观而上涨 11.5%，而健身器材制造商 Peloton Interactive Inc PTON.O 则因采取措施提高设备安全性而上涨。（完整故事）（完整故事）</blockquote></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EXPE\">Expedia</a> Group Inc EXPE.O shares rose 5.2% as analysts raised price targets following the company’s upbeat results.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EXPE\">Expedia</a>Group Inc EXPE.O 的股价上涨了 5.2%，原因是分析师在该公司业绩乐观后上调了目标价。</blockquote></p><p>Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 3.27-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.12-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所上涨发行量超过下跌发行量，比例为 3.27 比 1；在纳斯达克，2.12比1的比率有利于进步人士。</blockquote></p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 164 new 52-week highs and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> new low; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 164 new highs and 64 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下 164 个 52 周新高，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">一</a>新低；纳斯达克综合指数创下164个新高和64个新低。</blockquote></p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.23 billion shares, compared with the 10.11 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所的成交量为 102.3 亿股，而过去 20 个交易日整个交易日的平均成交量为 101.1 亿股。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>S&P 500, Dow hit record highs as weak jobs data eases rate worries<blockquote>疲软的就业数据缓解了利率担忧，标普500和道琼斯指数创下历史新高</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS&P 500, Dow hit record highs as weak jobs data eases rate worries<blockquote>疲软的就业数据缓解了利率担忧，标普500和道琼斯指数创下历史新高</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-08 07:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The Dow and S&amp;P 500 hit record closing highs on Friday while registering gains for the week, and the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a> recovered after U.S. jobs data eased concerns over prospects for rising rates.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯指数和标普500指数周五创下收盘新高，本周上涨，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">纳斯达克</a>美国就业数据缓解了人们对加息前景的担忧后复苏。</blockquote></p><p>U.S. job growth&nbsp;unexpectedly slowed&nbsp;in April, likely restrained by shortages of workers, the Labor Department report showed.</p><p><blockquote>劳工部报告显示，美国4月份就业增长意外放缓，可能受到工人短缺的限制。</blockquote></p><p>The report alleviated some concerns about rising inflation and potentially higher U.S. interest rates, which some investors worry would hurt growth companies with high valuations.</p><p><blockquote>该报告缓解了对通胀上升和美国利率潜在上升的一些担忧，一些投资者担心这将损害高估值的成长型公司。</blockquote></p><p>“Growth names that were taken to the woodshed are getting another chance, because they will be perceived to be less risky in an environment where there is a slower recovery, and that’s really what the jobs data is indicating”, said Tom Martin, senior portfolio manager at Globalt Investments.</p><p><blockquote>“Globalt Investments 高级投资组合经理汤姆-马丁（Tom Martin）说：”那些被淘汰的成长型股票又获得了一次机会，因为在复苏放缓的环境中，它们会被认为风险较小，而就业数据正是表明了这一点。</blockquote></p><p>Heavily-weighted growth stocks such as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a> Corp MSFT.O and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a> Inc AAPL.O rose by 1.1% and 0.5%, respectively, giving the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq their biggest boosts.</p><p><blockquote>权重较大的成长股，例如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>公司MSFT.O和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>Inc AAPL.O 分别上涨 1.1% 和 0.5%，给标普500和纳斯达克带来最大提振。</blockquote></p><p>But gains were broad-based, with all major S&amp;P 500 sectors ending in the green and energy SPNY and real estate SPLRCR leading the advance. Energy and materials SPLRCM both hit fresh highs.</p><p><blockquote>但涨幅是广泛的，所有主要标普500板块均以绿色和能源 SPNY 收盘，房地产 SPLRCR 领涨。能源和材料SPLRCM均创下新高。</blockquote></p><p>The Dow .DJI rose 229.23 points, or 0.66%, to 34,777.76, the S&amp;P 500 .SPX gained 30.98 points, or 0.74%, to 4,232.6 and the Nasdaq Composite .IXIC added 119.40 points, or 0.88%, to 13,752.24.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯指数上涨229.23点，或0.66%，至34,777.76点；标普500指数上涨30.98点，或0.74%，至4,232.6点；纳斯达克综合指数上涨119.40点，或0.88%，至13,752.24点。</blockquote></p><p>For the week, the Dow rose 2.7%, its biggest weekly percentage gain since March. The S&amp;P 500 gained 1.2%, its best week since mid-April, while the Nasdaq shed 1.5%.</p><p><blockquote>本周道琼斯指数上涨 2.7%，为 3 月份以来最大单周百分比涨幅。标普500指数上涨 1.2%，为 4 月中旬以来最好的一周，而纳斯达克指数下跌 1.5%。</blockquote></p><p>“The anticipation and confirmation of (Federal Reserve) policy staying the same and continued economic recovery with vaccines rollout have fueled these all-time highs, but we do believe the volatility is going to be tightened in the short term,” said Greg Bassuk, chief executive at Axs Investments.</p><p><blockquote>“Axs Investments 首席执行官格雷格-巴苏克（Greg Bassuk）说：”（美联储）政策保持不变的预期和确认，以及随着疫苗的推出，经济持续复苏，推动了这些历史新高，但我们确实认为，短期内波动性将会加剧。</blockquote></p><p>A raft of upbeat earnings also helped stocks, and S&amp;P 500 earnings are now estimated to have increased 50.4% in the first quarter from a year ago, which would be the highest growth rate since the first quarter of 2010, according to Refinitiv data.</p><p><blockquote>大量乐观的盈利也帮助了股市，根据路孚特的数据，目前预计标普500第一季度盈利将比去年同期增长 50.4%，这将是自 2010 年第一季度以来的最高增长率。</blockquote></p><p>Payments firm <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">Square</a> Inc SQ.N rose 4.2% after reporting a better-than-expected quarterly profit, as surging demand for bitcoin fueled a jump in cryptocurrency transactions on its application. (Full Story)</p><p><blockquote>支付公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">平方</a>Inc SQ.N 公布好于预期的季度利润后上涨 4.2%，因为对比特币的需求激增推动了其应用程序上加密货币交易的激增。（全文）</blockquote></p><p>Streaming device maker <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ROKU\">Roku Inc</a> ROKU.O jumped 11.5%following an upbeat revenue outlook, while fitness equipment maker Peloton Interactive Inc PTON.O gained as it laid out steps to improve the safety of its equipment. (Full Story) (Full Story)</p><p><blockquote>流媒体设备制造商<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ROKU\">Roku公司</a>ROKU.O 因营收前景乐观而上涨 11.5%，而健身器材制造商 Peloton Interactive Inc PTON.O 则因采取措施提高设备安全性而上涨。（完整故事）（完整故事）</blockquote></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EXPE\">Expedia</a> Group Inc EXPE.O shares rose 5.2% as analysts raised price targets following the company’s upbeat results.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EXPE\">Expedia</a>Group Inc EXPE.O 的股价上涨了 5.2%，原因是分析师在该公司业绩乐观后上调了目标价。</blockquote></p><p>Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 3.27-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.12-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所上涨发行量超过下跌发行量，比例为 3.27 比 1；在纳斯达克，2.12比1的比率有利于进步人士。</blockquote></p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 164 new 52-week highs and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> new low; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 164 new highs and 64 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下 164 个 52 周新高，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">一</a>新低；纳斯达克综合指数创下164个新高和64个新低。</blockquote></p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.23 billion shares, compared with the 10.11 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所的成交量为 102.3 亿股，而过去 20 个交易日整个交易日的平均成交量为 101.1 亿股。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/business/sp-500-dow-hit-record-highs-weak-jobs-data-eases-rate-worries-2021-05-07/\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEX":"标普100","MSFT":"微软","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","AAPL":"苹果",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","ROKU":"Roku Inc","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","EXPE":"Expedia","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/business/sp-500-dow-hit-record-highs-weak-jobs-data-eases-rate-worries-2021-05-07/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120904578","content_text":"The Dow and S&P 500 hit record closing highs on Friday while registering gains for the week, and the Nasdaq recovered after U.S. jobs data eased concerns over prospects for rising rates.U.S. job growth unexpectedly slowed in April, likely restrained by shortages of workers, the Labor Department report showed.The report alleviated some concerns about rising inflation and potentially higher U.S. interest rates, which some investors worry would hurt growth companies with high valuations.“Growth names that were taken to the woodshed are getting another chance, because they will be perceived to be less risky in an environment where there is a slower recovery, and that’s really what the jobs data is indicating”, said Tom Martin, senior portfolio manager at Globalt Investments.Heavily-weighted growth stocks such as Microsoft Corp MSFT.O and Apple Inc AAPL.O rose by 1.1% and 0.5%, respectively, giving the S&P 500 and Nasdaq their biggest boosts.But gains were broad-based, with all major S&P 500 sectors ending in the green and energy SPNY and real estate SPLRCR leading the advance. Energy and materials SPLRCM both hit fresh highs.The Dow .DJI rose 229.23 points, or 0.66%, to 34,777.76, the S&P 500 .SPX gained 30.98 points, or 0.74%, to 4,232.6 and the Nasdaq Composite .IXIC added 119.40 points, or 0.88%, to 13,752.24.For the week, the Dow rose 2.7%, its biggest weekly percentage gain since March. The S&P 500 gained 1.2%, its best week since mid-April, while the Nasdaq shed 1.5%.“The anticipation and confirmation of (Federal Reserve) policy staying the same and continued economic recovery with vaccines rollout have fueled these all-time highs, but we do believe the volatility is going to be tightened in the short term,” said Greg Bassuk, chief executive at Axs Investments.A raft of upbeat earnings also helped stocks, and S&P 500 earnings are now estimated to have increased 50.4% in the first quarter from a year ago, which would be the highest growth rate since the first quarter of 2010, according to Refinitiv data.Payments firm Square Inc SQ.N rose 4.2% after reporting a better-than-expected quarterly profit, as surging demand for bitcoin fueled a jump in cryptocurrency transactions on its application. (Full Story)Streaming device maker Roku Inc ROKU.O jumped 11.5%following an upbeat revenue outlook, while fitness equipment maker Peloton Interactive Inc PTON.O gained as it laid out steps to improve the safety of its equipment. (Full Story) (Full Story)Expedia Group Inc EXPE.O shares rose 5.2% as analysts raised price targets following the company’s upbeat results.Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 3.27-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.12-to-1 ratio favored advancers.The S&P 500 posted 164 new 52-week highs and one new low; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 164 new highs and 64 new lows.Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.23 billion shares, compared with the 10.11 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"AAPL":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"SQ":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"EXPE":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"ROKU":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SH":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"MSFT":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SSO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":940,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":190320372,"gmtCreate":1620601278096,"gmtModify":1634197892117,"author":{"id":"3581899057268262","authorId":"3581899057268262","name":"CK11","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0923eb4b52245eb1bf4d6c510566f9f5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581899057268262","idStr":"3581899057268262"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Recovery underway?&nbsp;","listText":"Recovery underway?&nbsp;","text":"Recovery underway?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/190320372","repostId":"1193602237","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1193602237","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620471120,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1193602237?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-08 18:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. hiring takes big step back as businesses scramble for workers, raw materials<blockquote>随着企业争夺工人和原材料，美国招聘大幅倒退</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193602237","media":"reuters","summary":"U.S. employers likely hired nearly a million workers in April as they rushed to meet a surge in dema","content":"<p>U.S. employers likely hired nearly a million workers in April as they rushed to meet a surge in demand, unleashed by the reopening of the economy amid rapidly improving public health and massive financial help from the government.</p><p><blockquote>美国雇主可能在 4 月份雇佣了近 100 万名工人，因为他们急于满足需求激增，这是在公共卫生迅速改善和政府提供大量财政援助的情况下经济重新开放所释放的。</blockquote></p><p>The Labor Department's closely watched employment report on Friday will be the first to show the impact of the White House's $1.9 trillion COVID-19 pandemic rescue package, which was approved in March. It is likely to show the economy entered the second quarter with even greater momentum, firmly putting it on track this year for its best performance in almost four decades.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工部周五发布的备受关注的就业报告将首次显示白宫 3 月份批准的 1.9 万亿美元 COVID-19 大流行救助计划的影响。这可能表明经济以更大的势头进入第二季度，坚定地走上了今年近四十年来最好表现的轨道。</blockquote></p><p>\"We are looking for a pretty good figure, reflecting the ongoing reopening we have seen,\" said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING in New York. \"With cash in people's pockets, economic activity is looking good and that should lead to more and more hiring right across the economy.\"</p><p><blockquote>荷兰国际集团驻纽约首席国际经济学家詹姆斯·奈特利表示：“我们正在寻找一个相当不错的数字，反映我们所看到的正在进行的重新开放。”“随着人们口袋里有了现金，经济活动看起来不错，这应该会导致整个经济中越来越多的招聘。”</blockquote></p><p>According to a Reuters survey of economists, nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 978,000 jobs last month after rising by 916,000 in March. That would leave employment about 7.5 million jobs below its peak in February 2020.</p><p><blockquote>根据路透社对经济学家的调查，继3月份增加91.6万个之后，上个月非农就业人数可能增加97.8万个。这将使就业人数比 2020 年 2 月的峰值低约 750 万个。</blockquote></p><p>Twelve months ago, the economy purged a record 20.679 million jobs as it reeled from mandatory closures of nonessential businesses to slow the first wave of COVID-19 infections.</p><p><blockquote>12 个月前，经济因强制关闭非必要企业以减缓第一波 COVID-19 感染而减少了创纪录的 2067.9 万个工作岗位。</blockquote></p><p>April's payrolls estimates range from as low as 656,000 to as high as 2.1 million jobs. New claims for unemployment benefits have dropped below 500,000 for the first-time since the pandemic started and job cuts announced by U.S.-based employers in April were the lowest in nearly 21 years.</p><p><blockquote>4月份的就业人数估计从低至65.6万人到高达210万人不等。自疫情爆发以来，新申请失业救济人数首次降至 50 万人以下，美国雇主 4 月份宣布的裁员人数为近 21 年来的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p>Also arguing for another month of blockbuster job growth, consumers' perceptions of the labor market are the strongest in 13 months. But the pent-up demand, which contributed to the economy's 6.4% annualized growth pace in the first quarter, the second-fastest since the third quarter of 2003, has triggered shortages of labor and raw materials.</p><p><blockquote>消费者对劳动力市场的看法也是 13 个月来最强劲的，这也表明就业又出现了大幅增长。但被压抑的需求导致了劳动力和原材料短缺，第一季度经济年化增长率为 6.4%，这是自 2003 年第三季度以来的第二快增长率。</blockquote></p><p>From manufacturing to restaurants, employers are scrambling for workers. A range of factors, including parents still at home caring for children, coronavirus-related retirements and generous unemployment checks, are blamed for the labor shortages.</p><p><blockquote>从制造业到餐馆，雇主们都在争抢工人。劳动力短缺被归咎于一系列因素，包括仍在家照顾孩子的父母、与冠状病毒相关的退休和慷慨的失业支票。</blockquote></p><p>\"While we do not expect that lack of workers will weigh noticeably on April employment, rehiring could become more difficult in coming months before expanded unemployment benefits expire in September,\" said Veronica Clark, an economist at Citigroup in New York.</p><p><blockquote>花旗集团驻纽约经济学家维罗妮卡·克拉克表示：“虽然我们预计工人短缺不会对 4 月份的就业造成明显影响，但在扩大的失业救济金于 9 月份到期之前，未来几个月重新招聘可能会变得更加困难。”</blockquote></p><p>Payroll gains were likely led by the leisure and hospitality industry as more high-contact businesses such as restaurants, bars and amusement parks reopen. Americans over the age of 16 are now eligible to receive the COVID-19 vaccine, leading states like New York, New Jersey and Connecticut to lift most of their coronavirus capacity restrictions on businesses.</p><p><blockquote>随着餐馆、酒吧和游乐园等更多高接触的企业重新开业，休闲和酒店业可能会推动工资增长。16岁以上的美国人现在有资格接种新冠肺炎疫苗，导致纽约州、新泽西州和康涅狄格州等州取消了对企业的大部分冠状病毒产能限制。</blockquote></p><p>BROAD EMPLOYMENT GAINS</p><p><blockquote>广泛的就业增长</blockquote></p><p>Solid gains were also expected in manufacturing, despite a global semiconductor chip shortage, which has forced motor vehicle manufacturers to cut production. Strong housing demand likely boosted construction payrolls.</p><p><blockquote>尽管全球半导体芯片短缺迫使汽车制造商减产，但预计制造业也将稳步增长。强劲的住房需求可能会推高建筑业就业人数。</blockquote></p><p>Government employment is also expected to have picked up as school districts hired more teachers following the resumption of in-person learning in many states.</p><p><blockquote>随着许多州恢复面对面学习，学区雇佣了更多教师，政府就业预计也会增加。</blockquote></p><p>Robust hiring is unlikely to have an impact on President Joe Biden's plan to spend another $4 trillion on education and childcare, middle- and low-income families, infrastructure and jobs. Neither was it expected to influence monetary policy, with the Federal Reserve having signaled it is prepared to let the economy run hotter than it did in previous cycles.</p><p><blockquote>强劲的招聘不太可能对乔·拜登总统在教育和儿童保育、中低收入家庭、基础设施和就业方面再支出 4 万亿美元的计划产生影响。预计它也不会影响货币政策，美联储已表示准备让经济运行比前几个周期更热。</blockquote></p><p>Millions of Americans remain out of work and many have permanently lost jobs because of the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>数百万美国人仍然失业，许多人因为疫情而永久失业。</blockquote></p><p>\"Nobody knows what the economy is going to look like post COVID,\" said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard in New York. \"There is a stubbornly high number of people who have been permanently displaced. The (spending) plans are about giving the economy a higher trajectory of growth so that these people can be hired sooner rather than later.\"</p><p><blockquote>纽约 TS Lombard 首席美国经济学家史蒂文·布利茨 (Steven Blitz) 表示：“没有人知道新冠疫情过后的经济会是什么样子。”“永久流离失所的人数一直居高不下。（支出）计划的目的是让经济走上更高的增长轨迹，以便这些人能够尽早就业。”</blockquote></p><p>The unemployment rate is forecast dropping to 5.8% in April from 6.0% in March. The unemployment rate has been understated by people misclassifying themselves as being \"employed but absent from work.\"</p><p><blockquote>失业率预计将从3月份的6.0%降至4月份的5.8%。人们错误地将自己归类为“有工作但不工作”，从而低估了失业率。</blockquote></p><p>To gauge the recovery, economists will focus on the number of people who have been unemployed for more than six months as well as those out of work because of permanent job losses.</p><p><blockquote>为了衡量经济复苏，经济学家将关注失业超过六个月的人数以及因永久性失业而失业的人数。</blockquote></p><p>The labor force participation rate, or the proportion of working-age Americans who have a job or are looking for one, likely improved last month, though it remained below its pre-pandemic level. More than 4 million people, many of them women, dropped out of the labor force during the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>劳动力参与率，即拥有工作或正在寻找工作的工作年龄美国人的比例，上个月可能有所改善，尽管仍低于大流行前的水平。在疫情期间，超过400万人，其中许多是妇女，退出了劳动力市场。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>With the lower-wage leisure and hospitality industry expected to dominate employment gains, average hourly earnings were likely unchanged in April after dipping 0.1% in March. That would lead to a 0.4% drop in wages on a year-on-year basis after a 4.2% increase in March.</p><p><blockquote>由于工资较低的休闲和酒店业预计将主导就业增长，平均时薪在3月份下降0.1%后，4月份可能保持不变。这将导致工资在3月份增长4.2%后同比下降0.4%。</blockquote></p><p>\"We will be watching average hourly earnings very closely for signs that difficulty in hiring qualified workers is beginning to boost compensation,\" said David Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management in New York.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通资产管理公司(J.P. Morgan Asset Management)驻纽约首席全球策略师大卫·凯利(David Kelly)表示：“我们将密切关注平均时薪，寻找招聘合格工人的困难开始推高薪酬的迹象。”</blockquote></p><p>\"If tightening labor markets boost wage growth, then the inflation bounce which the Fed is anticipating to be modest and transitory could turn out to be stronger and longer-lasting, leading to earlier Fed tightening.\"</p><p><blockquote>“如果劳动力市场收紧推动工资增长，那么美联储预计温和且短暂的通胀反弹可能会变得更强劲、更持久，从而导致美联储提前收紧货币政策。”</blockquote></p><p>The anticipated drop in wages will have no impact on consumer spending, with Americans sitting on more than $2 trillion in excess savings. The average workweek was forecast steady at 34.9 hours.</p><p><blockquote>预计工资下降不会对消费者支出产生影响，美国人有超过2万亿美元的超额储蓄。平均工作周预计稳定在34.9小时。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. hiring takes big step back as businesses scramble for workers, raw materials<blockquote>随着企业争夺工人和原材料，美国招聘大幅倒退</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. hiring takes big step back as businesses scramble for workers, raw materials<blockquote>随着企业争夺工人和原材料，美国招聘大幅倒退</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-08 18:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S. employers likely hired nearly a million workers in April as they rushed to meet a surge in demand, unleashed by the reopening of the economy amid rapidly improving public health and massive financial help from the government.</p><p><blockquote>美国雇主可能在 4 月份雇佣了近 100 万名工人，因为他们急于满足需求激增，这是在公共卫生迅速改善和政府提供大量财政援助的情况下经济重新开放所释放的。</blockquote></p><p>The Labor Department's closely watched employment report on Friday will be the first to show the impact of the White House's $1.9 trillion COVID-19 pandemic rescue package, which was approved in March. It is likely to show the economy entered the second quarter with even greater momentum, firmly putting it on track this year for its best performance in almost four decades.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工部周五发布的备受关注的就业报告将首次显示白宫 3 月份批准的 1.9 万亿美元 COVID-19 大流行救助计划的影响。这可能表明经济以更大的势头进入第二季度，坚定地走上了今年近四十年来最好表现的轨道。</blockquote></p><p>\"We are looking for a pretty good figure, reflecting the ongoing reopening we have seen,\" said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING in New York. \"With cash in people's pockets, economic activity is looking good and that should lead to more and more hiring right across the economy.\"</p><p><blockquote>荷兰国际集团驻纽约首席国际经济学家詹姆斯·奈特利表示：“我们正在寻找一个相当不错的数字，反映我们所看到的正在进行的重新开放。”“随着人们口袋里有了现金，经济活动看起来不错，这应该会导致整个经济中越来越多的招聘。”</blockquote></p><p>According to a Reuters survey of economists, nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 978,000 jobs last month after rising by 916,000 in March. That would leave employment about 7.5 million jobs below its peak in February 2020.</p><p><blockquote>根据路透社对经济学家的调查，继3月份增加91.6万个之后，上个月非农就业人数可能增加97.8万个。这将使就业人数比 2020 年 2 月的峰值低约 750 万个。</blockquote></p><p>Twelve months ago, the economy purged a record 20.679 million jobs as it reeled from mandatory closures of nonessential businesses to slow the first wave of COVID-19 infections.</p><p><blockquote>12 个月前，经济因强制关闭非必要企业以减缓第一波 COVID-19 感染而减少了创纪录的 2067.9 万个工作岗位。</blockquote></p><p>April's payrolls estimates range from as low as 656,000 to as high as 2.1 million jobs. New claims for unemployment benefits have dropped below 500,000 for the first-time since the pandemic started and job cuts announced by U.S.-based employers in April were the lowest in nearly 21 years.</p><p><blockquote>4月份的就业人数估计从低至65.6万人到高达210万人不等。自疫情爆发以来，新申请失业救济人数首次降至 50 万人以下，美国雇主 4 月份宣布的裁员人数为近 21 年来的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p>Also arguing for another month of blockbuster job growth, consumers' perceptions of the labor market are the strongest in 13 months. But the pent-up demand, which contributed to the economy's 6.4% annualized growth pace in the first quarter, the second-fastest since the third quarter of 2003, has triggered shortages of labor and raw materials.</p><p><blockquote>消费者对劳动力市场的看法也是 13 个月来最强劲的，这也表明就业又出现了大幅增长。但被压抑的需求导致了劳动力和原材料短缺，第一季度经济年化增长率为 6.4%，这是自 2003 年第三季度以来的第二快增长率。</blockquote></p><p>From manufacturing to restaurants, employers are scrambling for workers. A range of factors, including parents still at home caring for children, coronavirus-related retirements and generous unemployment checks, are blamed for the labor shortages.</p><p><blockquote>从制造业到餐馆，雇主们都在争抢工人。劳动力短缺被归咎于一系列因素，包括仍在家照顾孩子的父母、与冠状病毒相关的退休和慷慨的失业支票。</blockquote></p><p>\"While we do not expect that lack of workers will weigh noticeably on April employment, rehiring could become more difficult in coming months before expanded unemployment benefits expire in September,\" said Veronica Clark, an economist at Citigroup in New York.</p><p><blockquote>花旗集团驻纽约经济学家维罗妮卡·克拉克表示：“虽然我们预计工人短缺不会对 4 月份的就业造成明显影响，但在扩大的失业救济金于 9 月份到期之前，未来几个月重新招聘可能会变得更加困难。”</blockquote></p><p>Payroll gains were likely led by the leisure and hospitality industry as more high-contact businesses such as restaurants, bars and amusement parks reopen. Americans over the age of 16 are now eligible to receive the COVID-19 vaccine, leading states like New York, New Jersey and Connecticut to lift most of their coronavirus capacity restrictions on businesses.</p><p><blockquote>随着餐馆、酒吧和游乐园等更多高接触的企业重新开业，休闲和酒店业可能会推动工资增长。16岁以上的美国人现在有资格接种新冠肺炎疫苗，导致纽约州、新泽西州和康涅狄格州等州取消了对企业的大部分冠状病毒产能限制。</blockquote></p><p>BROAD EMPLOYMENT GAINS</p><p><blockquote>广泛的就业增长</blockquote></p><p>Solid gains were also expected in manufacturing, despite a global semiconductor chip shortage, which has forced motor vehicle manufacturers to cut production. Strong housing demand likely boosted construction payrolls.</p><p><blockquote>尽管全球半导体芯片短缺迫使汽车制造商减产，但预计制造业也将稳步增长。强劲的住房需求可能会推高建筑业就业人数。</blockquote></p><p>Government employment is also expected to have picked up as school districts hired more teachers following the resumption of in-person learning in many states.</p><p><blockquote>随着许多州恢复面对面学习，学区雇佣了更多教师，政府就业预计也会增加。</blockquote></p><p>Robust hiring is unlikely to have an impact on President Joe Biden's plan to spend another $4 trillion on education and childcare, middle- and low-income families, infrastructure and jobs. Neither was it expected to influence monetary policy, with the Federal Reserve having signaled it is prepared to let the economy run hotter than it did in previous cycles.</p><p><blockquote>强劲的招聘不太可能对乔·拜登总统在教育和儿童保育、中低收入家庭、基础设施和就业方面再支出 4 万亿美元的计划产生影响。预计它也不会影响货币政策，美联储已表示准备让经济运行比前几个周期更热。</blockquote></p><p>Millions of Americans remain out of work and many have permanently lost jobs because of the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>数百万美国人仍然失业，许多人因为疫情而永久失业。</blockquote></p><p>\"Nobody knows what the economy is going to look like post COVID,\" said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard in New York. \"There is a stubbornly high number of people who have been permanently displaced. The (spending) plans are about giving the economy a higher trajectory of growth so that these people can be hired sooner rather than later.\"</p><p><blockquote>纽约 TS Lombard 首席美国经济学家史蒂文·布利茨 (Steven Blitz) 表示：“没有人知道新冠疫情过后的经济会是什么样子。”“永久流离失所的人数一直居高不下。（支出）计划的目的是让经济走上更高的增长轨迹，以便这些人能够尽早就业。”</blockquote></p><p>The unemployment rate is forecast dropping to 5.8% in April from 6.0% in March. The unemployment rate has been understated by people misclassifying themselves as being \"employed but absent from work.\"</p><p><blockquote>失业率预计将从3月份的6.0%降至4月份的5.8%。人们错误地将自己归类为“有工作但不工作”，从而低估了失业率。</blockquote></p><p>To gauge the recovery, economists will focus on the number of people who have been unemployed for more than six months as well as those out of work because of permanent job losses.</p><p><blockquote>为了衡量经济复苏，经济学家将关注失业超过六个月的人数以及因永久性失业而失业的人数。</blockquote></p><p>The labor force participation rate, or the proportion of working-age Americans who have a job or are looking for one, likely improved last month, though it remained below its pre-pandemic level. More than 4 million people, many of them women, dropped out of the labor force during the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>劳动力参与率，即拥有工作或正在寻找工作的工作年龄美国人的比例，上个月可能有所改善，尽管仍低于大流行前的水平。在疫情期间，超过400万人，其中许多是妇女，退出了劳动力市场。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>With the lower-wage leisure and hospitality industry expected to dominate employment gains, average hourly earnings were likely unchanged in April after dipping 0.1% in March. That would lead to a 0.4% drop in wages on a year-on-year basis after a 4.2% increase in March.</p><p><blockquote>由于工资较低的休闲和酒店业预计将主导就业增长，平均时薪在3月份下降0.1%后，4月份可能保持不变。这将导致工资在3月份增长4.2%后同比下降0.4%。</blockquote></p><p>\"We will be watching average hourly earnings very closely for signs that difficulty in hiring qualified workers is beginning to boost compensation,\" said David Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management in New York.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通资产管理公司(J.P. Morgan Asset Management)驻纽约首席全球策略师大卫·凯利(David Kelly)表示：“我们将密切关注平均时薪，寻找招聘合格工人的困难开始推高薪酬的迹象。”</blockquote></p><p>\"If tightening labor markets boost wage growth, then the inflation bounce which the Fed is anticipating to be modest and transitory could turn out to be stronger and longer-lasting, leading to earlier Fed tightening.\"</p><p><blockquote>“如果劳动力市场收紧推动工资增长，那么美联储预计温和且短暂的通胀反弹可能会变得更强劲、更持久，从而导致美联储提前收紧货币政策。”</blockquote></p><p>The anticipated drop in wages will have no impact on consumer spending, with Americans sitting on more than $2 trillion in excess savings. The average workweek was forecast steady at 34.9 hours.</p><p><blockquote>预计工资下降不会对消费者支出产生影响，美国人有超过2万亿美元的超额储蓄。平均工作周预计稳定在34.9小时。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/markets\">reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1193602237","content_text":"U.S. employers likely hired nearly a million workers in April as they rushed to meet a surge in demand, unleashed by the reopening of the economy amid rapidly improving public health and massive financial help from the government.The Labor Department's closely watched employment report on Friday will be the first to show the impact of the White House's $1.9 trillion COVID-19 pandemic rescue package, which was approved in March. It is likely to show the economy entered the second quarter with even greater momentum, firmly putting it on track this year for its best performance in almost four decades.\"We are looking for a pretty good figure, reflecting the ongoing reopening we have seen,\" said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING in New York. \"With cash in people's pockets, economic activity is looking good and that should lead to more and more hiring right across the economy.\"According to a Reuters survey of economists, nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 978,000 jobs last month after rising by 916,000 in March. That would leave employment about 7.5 million jobs below its peak in February 2020.Twelve months ago, the economy purged a record 20.679 million jobs as it reeled from mandatory closures of nonessential businesses to slow the first wave of COVID-19 infections.April's payrolls estimates range from as low as 656,000 to as high as 2.1 million jobs. New claims for unemployment benefits have dropped below 500,000 for the first-time since the pandemic started and job cuts announced by U.S.-based employers in April were the lowest in nearly 21 years.Also arguing for another month of blockbuster job growth, consumers' perceptions of the labor market are the strongest in 13 months. But the pent-up demand, which contributed to the economy's 6.4% annualized growth pace in the first quarter, the second-fastest since the third quarter of 2003, has triggered shortages of labor and raw materials.From manufacturing to restaurants, employers are scrambling for workers. A range of factors, including parents still at home caring for children, coronavirus-related retirements and generous unemployment checks, are blamed for the labor shortages.\"While we do not expect that lack of workers will weigh noticeably on April employment, rehiring could become more difficult in coming months before expanded unemployment benefits expire in September,\" said Veronica Clark, an economist at Citigroup in New York.Payroll gains were likely led by the leisure and hospitality industry as more high-contact businesses such as restaurants, bars and amusement parks reopen. Americans over the age of 16 are now eligible to receive the COVID-19 vaccine, leading states like New York, New Jersey and Connecticut to lift most of their coronavirus capacity restrictions on businesses.BROAD EMPLOYMENT GAINSSolid gains were also expected in manufacturing, despite a global semiconductor chip shortage, which has forced motor vehicle manufacturers to cut production. Strong housing demand likely boosted construction payrolls.Government employment is also expected to have picked up as school districts hired more teachers following the resumption of in-person learning in many states.Robust hiring is unlikely to have an impact on President Joe Biden's plan to spend another $4 trillion on education and childcare, middle- and low-income families, infrastructure and jobs. Neither was it expected to influence monetary policy, with the Federal Reserve having signaled it is prepared to let the economy run hotter than it did in previous cycles.Millions of Americans remain out of work and many have permanently lost jobs because of the pandemic.\"Nobody knows what the economy is going to look like post COVID,\" said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard in New York. \"There is a stubbornly high number of people who have been permanently displaced. The (spending) plans are about giving the economy a higher trajectory of growth so that these people can be hired sooner rather than later.\"The unemployment rate is forecast dropping to 5.8% in April from 6.0% in March. The unemployment rate has been understated by people misclassifying themselves as being \"employed but absent from work.\"To gauge the recovery, economists will focus on the number of people who have been unemployed for more than six months as well as those out of work because of permanent job losses.The labor force participation rate, or the proportion of working-age Americans who have a job or are looking for one, likely improved last month, though it remained below its pre-pandemic level. More than 4 million people, many of them women, dropped out of the labor force during the pandemic.With the lower-wage leisure and hospitality industry expected to dominate employment gains, average hourly earnings were likely unchanged in April after dipping 0.1% in March. That would lead to a 0.4% drop in wages on a year-on-year basis after a 4.2% increase in March.\"We will be watching average hourly earnings very closely for signs that difficulty in hiring qualified workers is beginning to boost compensation,\" said David Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management in New York.\"If tightening labor markets boost wage growth, then the inflation bounce which the Fed is anticipating to be modest and transitory could turn out to be stronger and longer-lasting, leading to earlier Fed tightening.\"The anticipated drop in wages will have no impact on consumer spending, with Americans sitting on more than $2 trillion in excess savings. The average workweek was forecast steady at 34.9 hours.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":637,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}