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2021-06-20

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Adobe Getting Lift From Economic Reopening Post-Pandemic<blockquote>Adobe从大流行后经济重新开放中获得提振</blockquote>

2021-06-11

Tiger is here!

@好男人不包二奶:三孩生育政策爆笑段子汇总

2021-06-11

Tiger is here!

以史为鉴，美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响

2021-06-11

Tiger is here!

一张图读懂滴滴招股书：遍布15国，日均单量4100万

2021-06-10

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Goldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows<blockquote>高盛解释了为什么无论今天的消费者物价指数显示什么，经济都不会过热</blockquote>

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leading daily newsletter for the latest financial and business news. 33Yrs Helping Stock Investors with Investing Insights, Tools, News & More.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Investors","id":"1085713068","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/608dd68a89ed486e18f64efe3136266c"},"pubTimestamp":1624030096,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2144774740?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 23:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Adobe Getting Lift From Economic Reopening Post-Pandemic<blockquote>Adobe从大流行后经济重新开放中获得提振</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144774740","media":"Investors","summary":"Software giant Adobe is benefiting as the economy reopens following the Covid-19 pandemic, a senior executive says.","content":"<p>Software giant <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a></b> is benefiting as the economy reopens as the Covid-19 pandemic wanes, a senior executive says. The company's beat-and-raise quarterly report provided proof of that. ADBE stock jumped on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>软件巨头<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">土坯</a></b>一位高管表示，随着Covid-19大流行消退，经济重新开放，该公司正在受益。该公司的季度报告证明了这一点。ADBE股价周五上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The maker of digital media and marketing software late Thursday reported fiscal second-quarter earnings that easily topped expectations. Adobe also guided above views for the current quarter.</p><p><blockquote>这家数字媒体和营销软件制造商周四晚些时候公布的第二财季收益轻松超出预期。Adobe还指导了本季度的上述观点。</blockquote></p><p> The San Jose, Calif.-based company earned an adjusted $3.03 a share on sales of $3.84 billion in the quarter ended June 4. On a year-over-year basis, Adobe earnings rose 24% while sales climbed 23%.</p><p><blockquote>这家总部位于加利福尼亚州圣何塞的公司在截至6月4日的季度销售额为38.4亿美元，调整后每股收益为3.03美元。与去年同期相比，Adobe盈利增长24%，销售额增长23%。</blockquote></p><p> For the current quarter, Adobe expects to earn an adjusted $3 a share, up 17%, on sales of $3.88 billion, up 20%.</p><p><blockquote>Adobe预计本季度调整后每股收益为3美元，增长17%，销售额为38.8亿美元，增长20%。</blockquote></p><p> <h2>ADBE Stock Rises After Earnings Report</h2> In morning trading on the stock market today, ADBE stock advanced 2.2%, near 563.35. Earlier in the session, ADBE stock notched a record high 570.</p><p><blockquote><h2>ADBE股价在收益报告后上涨</h2>今天股市早盘交易中，ADBE股价上涨2.2%，接近563.35点。盘中早些时候，ADBE股价创下570点的历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> \"All three of our businesses — Creative Cloud, Document Cloud and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EXP.AU\">Experience</a> Cloud — just killed it this quarter with excellent performance,\" Chief Financial Officer John Murphy told Investor's Business Daily. \"Content creation and customer experience engagement in personalized ways are resonating across all of our businesses. And it's really driving the momentum and acceleration in the business.\"</p><p><blockquote>“我们的三项业务——创意云、文档云和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EXP.AU\">经验</a>云——本季度刚刚以出色的表现击败了它，”首席财务官约翰·墨菲(John Murphy)告诉《投资者商业日报》。“以个性化方式进行内容创作和客户体验参与正在我们所有业务中引起共鸣。它确实推动了业务的发展势头和加速。”</blockquote></p><p> That momentum will continue in the company's seasonally weaker fiscal third quarter, Murphy said. The current quarter includes the summer months of June, July and August.</p><p><blockquote>墨菲表示，这种势头将在该公司季节性疲软的第三财季持续下去。本季度包括夏季的六月、七月和八月。</blockquote></p><p> \"The macroeconomic stability is giving a lot of enterprises confidence to invest again,\" Murphy said. \"Companies are prioritizing digital transformation.\"</p><p><blockquote>墨菲表示：“宏观经济稳定给了很多企业再次投资的信心。”“企业正在优先考虑数字化转型。”</blockquote></p><p> The reopening of the economy and return to offices after the pandemic should provide a tailwind for Adobe's business, he said.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，疫情过后经济的重新开放和重返办公室应该会为Adobe的业务提供推动力。</blockquote></p><p> <h2>Analysts Raise Price Targets On Adobe Stock</h2> At least 15 Wall Street analysts raised their price targets on ADBE stock after the earnings report.</p><p><blockquote><h2>分析师提高Adobe股票的目标价</h2>财报发布后，至少15名华尔街分析师上调了ADBE股票的目标价。</blockquote></p><p> Mizuho Securities analyst Gregg Moskowitz reiterated his buy rating on ADBE stock and upped his price target to 640 from 600.</p><p><blockquote>瑞穗证券分析师Gregg Moskowitz重申了对ADBE股票的买入评级，并将目标价从600点上调至640点。</blockquote></p><p> \"Adobe's expansive portfolio of software solutions has made it the gold standard in content creation, consumption, and collaboration,\" Moskowitz said in a note to clients. \"Adobe is very well positioned to benefit from digital transformation with its comprehensive end-to-end offering that differentiates it from competitors.\"</p><p><blockquote>莫斯科维茨在给客户的一份报告中表示：“Adobe广泛的软件解决方案组合使其成为内容创建、消费和协作的黄金标准。”“Adobe凭借其全面的端到端产品使其与竞争对手区分开来，处于有利地位，可以从数字化转型中受益。”</blockquote></p><p> On June 11, ADBE stock broke out of a 40-week&nbsp;consolidation period&nbsp;at a&nbsp;buy point&nbsp;of 536.98, according to&nbsp;IBD MarketSmith charts.</p><p><blockquote>根据IBD MarketSmith图表，6月11日，ADBE股票突破了40周的盘整期，买入点为536.98。</blockquote></p><p> However, IBD Leaderboard analysis offered investors an earlier buy point of 525.54 from a cup base within the larger consolidation pattern.</p><p><blockquote>然而，IBD排行榜分析为投资者提供了较大盘整格局中杯基的早期买入点525.54。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Adobe Getting Lift From Economic Reopening Post-Pandemic<blockquote>Adobe从大流行后经济重新开放中获得提振</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAdobe Getting Lift From Economic Reopening Post-Pandemic<blockquote>Adobe从大流行后经济重新开放中获得提振</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/608dd68a89ed486e18f64efe3136266c);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Investors </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-18 23:28</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Software giant <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a></b> is benefiting as the economy reopens as the Covid-19 pandemic wanes, a senior executive says. The company's beat-and-raise quarterly report provided proof of that. ADBE stock jumped on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>软件巨头<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">土坯</a></b>一位高管表示，随着Covid-19大流行消退，经济重新开放，该公司正在受益。该公司的季度报告证明了这一点。ADBE股价周五上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The maker of digital media and marketing software late Thursday reported fiscal second-quarter earnings that easily topped expectations. Adobe also guided above views for the current quarter.</p><p><blockquote>这家数字媒体和营销软件制造商周四晚些时候公布的第二财季收益轻松超出预期。Adobe还指导了本季度的上述观点。</blockquote></p><p> The San Jose, Calif.-based company earned an adjusted $3.03 a share on sales of $3.84 billion in the quarter ended June 4. On a year-over-year basis, Adobe earnings rose 24% while sales climbed 23%.</p><p><blockquote>这家总部位于加利福尼亚州圣何塞的公司在截至6月4日的季度销售额为38.4亿美元，调整后每股收益为3.03美元。与去年同期相比，Adobe盈利增长24%，销售额增长23%。</blockquote></p><p> For the current quarter, Adobe expects to earn an adjusted $3 a share, up 17%, on sales of $3.88 billion, up 20%.</p><p><blockquote>Adobe预计本季度调整后每股收益为3美元，增长17%，销售额为38.8亿美元，增长20%。</blockquote></p><p> <h2>ADBE Stock Rises After Earnings Report</h2> In morning trading on the stock market today, ADBE stock advanced 2.2%, near 563.35. Earlier in the session, ADBE stock notched a record high 570.</p><p><blockquote><h2>ADBE股价在收益报告后上涨</h2>今天股市早盘交易中，ADBE股价上涨2.2%，接近563.35点。盘中早些时候，ADBE股价创下570点的历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> \"All three of our businesses — Creative Cloud, Document Cloud and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EXP.AU\">Experience</a> Cloud — just killed it this quarter with excellent performance,\" Chief Financial Officer John Murphy told Investor's Business Daily. \"Content creation and customer experience engagement in personalized ways are resonating across all of our businesses. And it's really driving the momentum and acceleration in the business.\"</p><p><blockquote>“我们的三项业务——创意云、文档云和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EXP.AU\">经验</a>云——本季度刚刚以出色的表现击败了它，”首席财务官约翰·墨菲(John Murphy)告诉《投资者商业日报》。“以个性化方式进行内容创作和客户体验参与正在我们所有业务中引起共鸣。它确实推动了业务的发展势头和加速。”</blockquote></p><p> That momentum will continue in the company's seasonally weaker fiscal third quarter, Murphy said. The current quarter includes the summer months of June, July and August.</p><p><blockquote>墨菲表示，这种势头将在该公司季节性疲软的第三财季持续下去。本季度包括夏季的六月、七月和八月。</blockquote></p><p> \"The macroeconomic stability is giving a lot of enterprises confidence to invest again,\" Murphy said. \"Companies are prioritizing digital transformation.\"</p><p><blockquote>墨菲表示：“宏观经济稳定给了很多企业再次投资的信心。”“企业正在优先考虑数字化转型。”</blockquote></p><p> The reopening of the economy and return to offices after the pandemic should provide a tailwind for Adobe's business, he said.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，疫情过后经济的重新开放和重返办公室应该会为Adobe的业务提供推动力。</blockquote></p><p> <h2>Analysts Raise Price Targets On Adobe Stock</h2> At least 15 Wall Street analysts raised their price targets on ADBE stock after the earnings report.</p><p><blockquote><h2>分析师提高Adobe股票的目标价</h2>财报发布后，至少15名华尔街分析师上调了ADBE股票的目标价。</blockquote></p><p> Mizuho Securities analyst Gregg Moskowitz reiterated his buy rating on ADBE stock and upped his price target to 640 from 600.</p><p><blockquote>瑞穗证券分析师Gregg Moskowitz重申了对ADBE股票的买入评级，并将目标价从600点上调至640点。</blockquote></p><p> \"Adobe's expansive portfolio of software solutions has made it the gold standard in content creation, consumption, and collaboration,\" Moskowitz said in a note to clients. \"Adobe is very well positioned to benefit from digital transformation with its comprehensive end-to-end offering that differentiates it from competitors.\"</p><p><blockquote>莫斯科维茨在给客户的一份报告中表示：“Adobe广泛的软件解决方案组合使其成为内容创建、消费和协作的黄金标准。”“Adobe凭借其全面的端到端产品使其与竞争对手区分开来，处于有利地位，可以从数字化转型中受益。”</blockquote></p><p> On June 11, ADBE stock broke out of a 40-week&nbsp;consolidation period&nbsp;at a&nbsp;buy point&nbsp;of 536.98, according to&nbsp;IBD MarketSmith charts.</p><p><blockquote>根据IBD MarketSmith图表，6月11日，ADBE股票突破了40周的盘整期，买入点为536.98。</blockquote></p><p> However, IBD Leaderboard analysis offered investors an earlier buy point of 525.54 from a cup base within the larger consolidation pattern.</p><p><blockquote>然而，IBD排行榜分析为投资者提供了较大盘整格局中杯基的早期买入点525.54。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ADBE":"Adobe"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2144774740","content_text":"Software giant Adobe is benefiting as the economy reopens as the Covid-19 pandemic wanes, a senior executive says. The company's beat-and-raise quarterly report provided proof of that. ADBE stock jumped on Friday.\nThe maker of digital media and marketing software late Thursday reported fiscal second-quarter earnings that easily topped expectations. Adobe also guided above views for the current quarter.\nThe San Jose, Calif.-based company earned an adjusted $3.03 a share on sales of $3.84 billion in the quarter ended June 4. On a year-over-year basis, Adobe earnings rose 24% while sales climbed 23%.\nFor the current quarter, Adobe expects to earn an adjusted $3 a share, up 17%, on sales of $3.88 billion, up 20%.\nADBE Stock Rises After Earnings Report\nIn morning trading on the stock market today, ADBE stock advanced 2.2%, near 563.35. Earlier in the session, ADBE stock notched a record high 570.\n\"All three of our businesses — Creative Cloud, Document Cloud and Experience Cloud — just killed it this quarter with excellent performance,\" Chief Financial Officer John Murphy told Investor's Business Daily. \"Content creation and customer experience engagement in personalized ways are resonating across all of our businesses. And it's really driving the momentum and acceleration in the business.\"\nThat momentum will continue in the company's seasonally weaker fiscal third quarter, Murphy said. The current quarter includes the summer months of June, July and August.\n\"The macroeconomic stability is giving a lot of enterprises confidence to invest again,\" Murphy said. \"Companies are prioritizing digital transformation.\"\nThe reopening of the economy and return to offices after the pandemic should provide a tailwind for Adobe's business, he said.\nAnalysts Raise Price Targets On Adobe Stock\nAt least 15 Wall Street analysts raised their price targets on ADBE stock after the earnings report.\nMizuho Securities analyst Gregg Moskowitz reiterated his buy rating on ADBE stock and upped his price target to 640 from 600.\n\"Adobe's expansive portfolio of software solutions has made it the gold standard in content creation, consumption, and collaboration,\" Moskowitz said in a note to clients. \"Adobe is very well positioned to benefit from digital transformation with its comprehensive end-to-end offering that differentiates it from competitors.\"\nOn June 11, ADBE stock broke out of a 40-week consolidation period at a buy point of 536.98, according to IBD MarketSmith charts.\nHowever, IBD Leaderboard analysis offered investors an earlier buy point of 525.54 from a cup base within the larger consolidation pattern.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ADBE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":851,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188968632,"gmtCreate":1623419628426,"gmtModify":1631890841908,"author":{"id":"3581856277356895","authorId":"3581856277356895","name":"AK91","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/591e829441c63580ff59ffaa06cbee53","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581856277356895","idStr":"3581856277356895"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tiger is here!","listText":"Tiger is here!","text":"Tiger is here!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188968632","repostId":"110267641","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":110267641,"gmtCreate":1622461531680,"gmtModify":1623395239063,"author":{"id":"3539180379992057","authorId":"3539180379992057","name":"好男人不包二奶","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2b6c2434c85440363083276cf42f8df","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3539180379992057","idStr":"3539180379992057"},"themes":[],"title":"三孩生育政策爆笑段子汇总","htmlText":"今天下午各个微信群达成了空前绝后的话题统一，无论是游戏群媒体群炒股群还是同学群水友群全在聊三娃，思路非常广泛，当然，比思路更广泛的是表情包，潜水一下午收购不少，逗您一乐就点个赞呗。 这个消息发布后群全都炸了 居然是一套组合拳 先满上（指仓位 最大输家杜蕾斯 6胎政策警告 绿化政策配三胎政策 看的更长远 灵魂的疑问 顺口溜都出来了 对王之王 年轻人的想法就是特别赋能 不想当生产队的驴 可以当生产队的猪 大家聊的都挺开心的啊 剧本都不敢这么编 答辩生最惨 有的人已经提前完成任务了 人大点赞 请看下图 请看上图 请看历史上的三胎 买房参考 房子不够不要紧 车座不够不要紧 深谋远虑 三胎概念要从娃娃抓起 一步到位吧 恭喜您找到了TRADE，参与《老虎大搜查》活动，下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币，如集齐7张图片并留言，还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。（详情请点击<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查</a> 了解）","listText":"今天下午各个微信群达成了空前绝后的话题统一，无论是游戏群媒体群炒股群还是同学群水友群全在聊三娃，思路非常广泛，当然，比思路更广泛的是表情包，潜水一下午收购不少，逗您一乐就点个赞呗。 这个消息发布后群全都炸了 居然是一套组合拳 先满上（指仓位 最大输家杜蕾斯 6胎政策警告 绿化政策配三胎政策 看的更长远 灵魂的疑问 顺口溜都出来了 对王之王 年轻人的想法就是特别赋能 不想当生产队的驴 可以当生产队的猪 大家聊的都挺开心的啊 剧本都不敢这么编 答辩生最惨 有的人已经提前完成任务了 人大点赞 请看下图 请看上图 请看历史上的三胎 买房参考 房子不够不要紧 车座不够不要紧 深谋远虑 三胎概念要从娃娃抓起 一步到位吧 恭喜您找到了TRADE，参与《老虎大搜查》活动，下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币，如集齐7张图片并留言，还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。（详情请点击<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查</a> 了解）","text":"今天下午各个微信群达成了空前绝后的话题统一，无论是游戏群媒体群炒股群还是同学群水友群全在聊三娃，思路非常广泛，当然，比思路更广泛的是表情包，潜水一下午收购不少，逗您一乐就点个赞呗。 这个消息发布后群全都炸了 居然是一套组合拳 先满上（指仓位 最大输家杜蕾斯 6胎政策警告 绿化政策配三胎政策 看的更长远 灵魂的疑问 顺口溜都出来了 对王之王 年轻人的想法就是特别赋能 不想当生产队的驴 可以当生产队的猪 大家聊的都挺开心的啊 剧本都不敢这么编 答辩生最惨 有的人已经提前完成任务了 人大点赞 请看下图 请看上图 请看历史上的三胎 买房参考 房子不够不要紧 车座不够不要紧 深谋远虑 三胎概念要从娃娃抓起 一步到位吧 恭喜您找到了TRADE，参与《老虎大搜查》活动，下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币，如集齐7张图片并留言，还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。（详情请点击【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 了解）","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21d80f4e3fdfc9ad22bd8dd7f824b454","width":"1130","height":"599"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd51b3bb89aeb118e8505eae89a9b722","width":"705","height":"870"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3c78011480612cee7365696125f80c3","width":"800","height":"800"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/110267641","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":28,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1192,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188969132,"gmtCreate":1623419546126,"gmtModify":1631890841919,"author":{"id":"3581856277356895","authorId":"3581856277356895","name":"AK91","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/591e829441c63580ff59ffaa06cbee53","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581856277356895","idStr":"3581856277356895"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tiger is here!","listText":"Tiger is here!","text":"Tiger is here!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188969132","repostId":"1156453091","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1156453091","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623333482,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1156453091?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-10 21:58","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"以史为鉴，美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156453091","media":"川阅全球宏观","summary":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：。1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。","content":"<p>美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。<b>美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。</b>我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：</p>\n<p><b>1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次</b>(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济基本面和美联储政策进行了复盘(表1)。</p>\n<p><b>1968/06-1971/09</b>：经济陷入衰退，但前期大幅政府开支与财政刺激的余温仍在，通胀持续上升，美联储在1970年收紧货币政策以抑制通胀。</p>\n<p><b>1973/03-1982/11：</b>粮食危机和石油危机的双重打击下，美国经济陷入滞胀，供给冲击与成本推升通胀。政府价格管制失败，货币政策缺乏独立性并且过于滞后，未能成功抑制通胀。</p>\n<p><b>1987/08-1991/07：</b>走出滞胀后，美国经济经历了高速增长，但1987年开始经济增速放缓，并出现工资和价格上涨压力，美联储收紧货币政策。</p>\n<p><b>2007/11-2008/09：</b>油价飙升推升通胀，金融危机爆发，美联储货币政策的首要任务在于救市，通胀不在其重点关注范围内。</p>\n<p><b>当前的通胀和1973-1982年通胀的成因较为相似，均为成本推动。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/327f6f12c3af30abee8fa0ae334f9763\" tg-width=\"1006\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ca353ebcbaf95ba1da0b46a815d5f8b\" tg-width=\"1025\" tg-height=\"853\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。</b>今年5月美国CPI录得5.0%(为2008年8月以来的最高水平)，但是<b>从CPI指数角度，2021年5月相对于2019年5月的复合增速仅为2.5%。</b></p>\n<p><b>对于今年通胀的演绎，我们重点关注二手车和房租两个分项。</b></p>\n<p><b>通胀的主要推力之一为二手车。</b>东南亚疫情恶化下多地芯片厂停工，芯片短缺导致车企减产。新车供应不足，二手车需求剧增，价格飙升(图2)。根据Manheim数据，2021年二手车售价增幅超越新车(图3)。此外，5月其他交通相关的价格涨幅进一步扩大，交通服务价格增幅从4月的5.6%扩大至11.2%，增幅翻倍。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884ed39a8682a3df05e8411f17f2105c\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/599b70f4fadb590d0d7b20254d4b1403\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"738\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。</b>美国CPI中房租的权重较高(约30%)，尽管相对于其它分项，房租的增速相对温和(今年5月同比增2.2%)，但年初以来增速斜率陡峭化(图4)，我们<b>预计受到供给短缺的影响，未来房租将会持续温和地上升</b>。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/869c4f313152d3a14769097f150fb674\" tg-width=\"1021\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>通胀预期走势如何?</b></p>\n<p>从消费者的角度，密西根预期通胀率数据显示，2<b>021年5月美国消费者5年通胀预期从上月的2.7%跳升至3.0%(图5)，但是仍然低于美联储可以容忍的3.5%。</b></p>\n<p>从政策制定者角度，如我们此前报告所述，美联储注重通胀预期的监测，关键指标为<b>共同通胀预期指数(CIE)，CIE为季度数据，预计2021年二季度的数据将于本月底公布。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21708bec0c792eb9299eda62ba3cd077\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>未来通胀将会怎样影响资产价格?</b></p>\n<p>我们复盘了上述四次大通胀中，CPI破4%后不同时间区间内美元、美股和美债收益率的变化(表2)：<b>通胀对于美元、美股存在负面影响，前者较为滞后，后者1个月内即有体现。</b>有趣的是，通胀对于美债收益率的影响不具规律性，关于美债的研究框架，请参考我们此前的报告。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/037d9e565ff952b13c942386e8d08506\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>风险提示：</b>美联储过快收紧货币政策，地缘政治风险加剧</p>\n<hr>\n<p>恭喜您找到了字母E，参与《老虎大搜查》活动，下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币，如集齐7张图片并留言，还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。（详情请点击<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 </a>了解）</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b519142d901e1ef1ff2a2e443798687b\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>","source":"lsy1582083733592","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>以史为鉴，美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n以史为鉴，美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-10 21:58 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html><strong>川阅全球宏观</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：\n1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c3dba7c4b0e443e40fe6df5639434d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156453091","content_text":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：\n1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济基本面和美联储政策进行了复盘(表1)。\n1968/06-1971/09：经济陷入衰退，但前期大幅政府开支与财政刺激的余温仍在，通胀持续上升，美联储在1970年收紧货币政策以抑制通胀。\n1973/03-1982/11：粮食危机和石油危机的双重打击下，美国经济陷入滞胀，供给冲击与成本推升通胀。政府价格管制失败，货币政策缺乏独立性并且过于滞后，未能成功抑制通胀。\n1987/08-1991/07：走出滞胀后，美国经济经历了高速增长，但1987年开始经济增速放缓，并出现工资和价格上涨压力，美联储收紧货币政策。\n2007/11-2008/09：油价飙升推升通胀，金融危机爆发，美联储货币政策的首要任务在于救市，通胀不在其重点关注范围内。\n当前的通胀和1973-1982年通胀的成因较为相似，均为成本推动。\n\n本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。今年5月美国CPI录得5.0%(为2008年8月以来的最高水平)，但是从CPI指数角度，2021年5月相对于2019年5月的复合增速仅为2.5%。\n对于今年通胀的演绎，我们重点关注二手车和房租两个分项。\n通胀的主要推力之一为二手车。东南亚疫情恶化下多地芯片厂停工，芯片短缺导致车企减产。新车供应不足，二手车需求剧增，价格飙升(图2)。根据Manheim数据，2021年二手车售价增幅超越新车(图3)。此外，5月其他交通相关的价格涨幅进一步扩大，交通服务价格增幅从4月的5.6%扩大至11.2%，增幅翻倍。\n\n房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。美国CPI中房租的权重较高(约30%)，尽管相对于其它分项，房租的增速相对温和(今年5月同比增2.2%)，但年初以来增速斜率陡峭化(图4)，我们预计受到供给短缺的影响，未来房租将会持续温和地上升。\n\n通胀预期走势如何?\n从消费者的角度，密西根预期通胀率数据显示，2021年5月美国消费者5年通胀预期从上月的2.7%跳升至3.0%(图5)，但是仍然低于美联储可以容忍的3.5%。\n从政策制定者角度，如我们此前报告所述，美联储注重通胀预期的监测，关键指标为共同通胀预期指数(CIE)，CIE为季度数据，预计2021年二季度的数据将于本月底公布。\n\n未来通胀将会怎样影响资产价格?\n我们复盘了上述四次大通胀中，CPI破4%后不同时间区间内美元、美股和美债收益率的变化(表2)：通胀对于美元、美股存在负面影响，前者较为滞后，后者1个月内即有体现。有趣的是，通胀对于美债收益率的影响不具规律性，关于美债的研究框架，请参考我们此前的报告。\n\n风险提示：美联储过快收紧货币政策，地缘政治风险加剧\n\n恭喜您找到了字母E，参与《老虎大搜查》活动，下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币，如集齐7张图片并留言，还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。（详情请点击【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 了解）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1009,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188982564,"gmtCreate":1623419448758,"gmtModify":1631890841931,"author":{"id":"3581856277356895","authorId":"3581856277356895","name":"AK91","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/591e829441c63580ff59ffaa06cbee53","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581856277356895","idStr":"3581856277356895"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tiger is here!","listText":"Tiger is here!","text":"Tiger is here!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188982564","repostId":"1140839418","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1140839418","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623382205,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1140839418?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-11 11:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"一张图读懂滴滴招股书：遍布15国，日均单量4100万","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140839418","media":"腾讯科技","summary":"6月11日消息，美国当地时间周四，$滴滴出行 $的运营主体小桔快智向美国证券交易委员会提交了IPO招股书，计划在纳斯达克股票市场或纽约证券交易所挂牌上市，股票代码为“DIDI”。根据滴滴披露的数据显示，目前滴滴已经在15个国家的4000多个城市和地区开通业务，年活跃用户数量4.93亿，年活跃司机数量1500万，日均单量4100万，年平台交易总额3410亿元，2018年至2021年Q1累计司机收入6000+亿元。","content":"<p>6月11日消息，美国当地时间周四，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">滴滴出行</a>的运营主体小桔快智向美国证券交易委员会（SEC）提交了IPO招股书，计划在纳斯达克股票市场或纽约证券交易所挂牌上市，股票代码为“DIDI”。</p>\n<p>根据滴滴披露的数据显示，目前滴滴已经在15个国家的4000多个城市和地区开通业务，年活跃用户数量4.93亿，年活跃司机数量1500万，日均单量4100万，年平台交易总额3410亿元，2018年至2021年Q1累计司机收入6000+亿元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a935c6b681f2f3744604b5596e29cac\" tg-width=\"2100\" tg-height=\"13686\"></p>\n<hr>\n<p>恭喜您找到了字母I，参与《老虎大搜查》活动，下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币，如集齐7张图片并留言，还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。（详情请点击<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查</a> 了解）<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba72fe98df37f49a4d31b0a0684a03aa\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>\n<p></p>","source":"txkj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>一张图读懂滴滴招股书：遍布15国，日均单量4100万</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n一张图读懂滴滴招股书：遍布15国，日均单量4100万\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-11 11:30 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20210611A02NC800><strong>腾讯科技</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>6月11日消息，美国当地时间周四，滴滴出行的运营主体小桔快智向美国证券交易委员会（SEC）提交了IPO招股书，计划在纳斯达克股票市场或纽约证券交易所挂牌上市，股票代码为“DIDI”。\n根据滴滴披露的数据显示，目前滴滴已经在15个国家的4000多个城市和地区开通业务，年活跃用户数量4.93亿，年活跃司机数量1500万，日均单量4100万，年平台交易总额3410亿元，2018年至2021年Q1累计司机...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20210611A02NC800\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9f14473f3e986de32cc80f6fd80b679","relate_stocks":{"DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)"},"source_url":"https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20210611A02NC800","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140839418","content_text":"6月11日消息，美国当地时间周四，滴滴出行的运营主体小桔快智向美国证券交易委员会（SEC）提交了IPO招股书，计划在纳斯达克股票市场或纽约证券交易所挂牌上市，股票代码为“DIDI”。\n根据滴滴披露的数据显示，目前滴滴已经在15个国家的4000多个城市和地区开通业务，年活跃用户数量4.93亿，年活跃司机数量1500万，日均单量4100万，年平台交易总额3410亿元，2018年至2021年Q1累计司机收入6000+亿元。\n\n\n恭喜您找到了字母I，参与《老虎大搜查》活动，下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币，如集齐7张图片并留言，还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。（详情请点击【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 了解）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DIDI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1182,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":183348107,"gmtCreate":1623311086409,"gmtModify":1631890841946,"author":{"id":"3581856277356895","authorId":"3581856277356895","name":"AK91","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/591e829441c63580ff59ffaa06cbee53","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581856277356895","idStr":"3581856277356895"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/183348107","repostId":"1127298356","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127298356","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623310533,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1127298356?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-10 15:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows<blockquote>高盛解释了为什么无论今天的消费者物价指数显示什么，经济都不会过热</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127298356","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a fu","content":"<p>Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...</p><p><blockquote>10年期国债收益率自3月初以来首次跌破1.50%，此前曾讨论过激烈的空头挤压...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e87da5d75100fe75f0be86933791246f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be waning as quickly as they flared up.</p><p><blockquote>...随着大流行后的通胀担忧似乎像爆发一样迅速减弱。</blockquote></p><p> This is a point we first brought up last month when observing the collapse in China's credit impulse, arguably the most important variable for the entire global reflationary narrative (see \"China's Credit Impulse Just Turned Negative, Unleashing Global Deflationary Shockwave\")...</p><p><blockquote>这是我们上个月在观察中国信贷冲动崩溃时首次提出的一点，可以说是整个全球再通胀叙事中最重要的变量（见“中国信贷冲动刚刚转为负面，释放全球通缩冲击波”）...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfc3b4fc471bcf50ee51b9be637a3ed4\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... and it's a point that Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius reiterated in a note published on Tuesday titled simply \"Why the Economy Won’t Overheat,” in which he argues - the same as the Fed - that the inflation we are seeing so far is likely to be temporary and prices will normalize again as we leg further away from unprecedented pandemic activity curtailments.</p><p><blockquote>...高盛首席经济学家Jan Hatzius在周二发表的一份题为“为什么经济不会过热”的报告中重申了这一点，他在报告中与美联储一样认为，我们迄今为止看到的通胀很可能是暂时的，随着我们进一步远离前所未有的大流行活动削减，价格将再次正常化。</blockquote></p><p> While we disagree - and so does Deutsche Bank,which sees nothing short of Weimar hyperinflationbeing unleashed by the Fed soon, something we first predicted in March 2009 as the ultimate endgame -&nbsp; it is interesting that today, at least, markets appear to be adopting this view judging by the collapse in 10Y nominal rates and the recent breach of the upward trendline in breakevens...</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们不同意——德意志银行也不同意，它认为美联储很快就会释放魏玛恶性通货膨胀，这是我们在2009年3月首次预测的最终结局——但有趣的是，至少在今天，市场似乎正在接受这一观点，从10年期名义利率的崩溃和最近盈亏平衡上升趋势线的突破来看...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef6de63c2434121178b1a7b351df6ee9\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... this even as China's PPI printed at a Lehman Sept 2008 high of 9.0% overnight.</p><p><blockquote>...尽管中国的PPI一夜之间达到了雷曼兄弟2008年9月的高点9.0%。</blockquote></p><p> So what, according to Goldman is the reason for receding inflation fears? As Hatzius and strategist Chris Hussey explain, the past 2 payrolls reports have been underwhelming as the rush back to work \"is being slowed by generous stimulus as well as an inability — perhaps — to simply process so many new workers. On the one hand, fewer available workers should push up wages as companies compete to attract new workers. But a more orderly stream of employment in the post-pandemic recovery may also allow for a more extended reopening period and perhaps a bit less top-line pressure on prices.\"</p><p><blockquote>那么，高盛认为通胀担忧消退的原因是什么呢？正如Hatzius和策略师Chris Hussey解释的那样，过去的两份就业报告并不令人印象深刻，因为“慷慨的刺激措施以及可能无法简单地处理如此多的新工人，导致重返工作岗位的热潮正在放缓。一方面，随着公司竞相吸引新工人，可用工人的减少应该会推高工资。但在大流行后的复苏中，更有序的就业流动也可能会延长重新开放期，并可能减轻价格的顶线压力。”</blockquote></p><p> Another reason for receding inflation fears may also simply be time. According to Goldman, as Americans become more accustomed to getting back to their daily routines, the strangeness of such activity recedes. And it is perhaps easier for investors to envision what‘normal’ will look like.&nbsp; And perhaps that vision is collectively coalescing around a‘new normal’ that looks surprisingly similiar to the pre-pandemic ‘old normal’.</p><p><blockquote>通胀担忧消退的另一个原因可能只是时间。高盛表示，随着美国人越来越习惯于回到日常生活中，这种活动的陌生感正在消退。投资者也许更容易想象“正常”会是什么样子。也许这种愿景正在围绕一种“新常态”集体凝聚，这种“新常态”看起来与大流行前的“旧常态”惊人地相似。</blockquote></p><p> Hatzius then elaborates why the recent inflation pickup will remain transitory: \"On the wage side,<b>labor supply should increase dramatically over the next 3-6 months as fear of the virus diminishes further and the $300/week benefit top-up expires—over the next few weeks in most Republican-controlled states and on September 6 in the remaining states.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>哈齐乌斯随后阐述了为什么最近的通胀回升仍将是暂时的：“在工资方面，<b>随着对病毒的恐惧进一步减弱以及每周300美元的福利充值到期，劳动力供应应该会在未来3-6个月内大幅增加——大多数共和党控制的州将在未来几周内到期，其余州将在9月6日到期。”</b></blockquote></p><p> In other words, employers will likely hold out another 3 months until the end of emergency benefits expire at which point they expect a flood of workers to reverse the calculus in the labor market,<b>from one of no labor supply to a flood of supply.</b></p><p><blockquote>换句话说，雇主可能会再坚持3个月，直到紧急福利到期，届时他们预计大量工人将扭转劳动力市场的格局，<b>从没有劳动力供应到大量供应。</b></blockquote></p><p> On the price side, Goldman's trimmed core PCE—which excludes the 30% most extreme month-to-month price changes, and as a reminder the surge in inflation last month was largely driven by soaring used car prices and transportation services, or as Goldman puts it \"outliers\" — remains at just 1.56% year-on-year, half the standard core PCE rate.&nbsp; This gap illustrates the unprecedented role of outliers in the recent inflation pickup.</p><p><blockquote>在价格方面，高盛削减的核心PCE——不包括30%最极端的月度价格变化，提醒一下上个月通胀飙升主要是由二手车价格和运输服务飙升推动的，或者正如高盛所说的“异常值”——同比仍仅为1.56%，是标准核心PCE利率的一半。这一差距说明了异常值在近期通胀回升中前所未有的作用。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3eaf58fed43ba69dc0224a4d192f457b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"307\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Ultimately, to Goldman, the biggest question in the overheating debate remains whether US output and employment will rise sharply above potential in the next few years. If the answer is yes, then inflation could indeed climb to undesirable levels on a more permanent basis. Predictably, Goldman's answer continues to be no, and here's why: \"Even though real GDP is nearly back to the pre-pandemic level, we still see significant slack in the economy based on the remaining jobs shortfall of nearly 8 million and the pandemic-driven productivity gain of 4.1% year-on-year in Q1. Moreover, we think sequential GDP growth has probably already peaked in monthly terms and will trend down from here as the fiscal impulse wanes, modestly at first and then more sharply in late 2021 and 2022.\"</p><p><blockquote>最终，对高盛来说，过热辩论中最大的问题仍然是美国产出和就业在未来几年是否会大幅高于潜力。如果答案是肯定的，那么通胀确实可能会在更持久的基础上攀升至不良水平。可以预见的是，高盛的答案仍然是否定的，原因如下：“尽管实际GDP几乎回到了大流行前的水平，但基于剩余的近800万个就业岗位缺口和大流行的推动，我们仍然看到经济显着疲软。第一季度生产率同比增长4.1%。此外，我们认为，按月计算，GDP环比增长可能已经见顶，随着财政刺激的减弱，GDP环比增长将呈下降趋势，先是温和，然后在2021年底和2022年大幅下降。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bbda3c1cc274419a5ecdfeea29dd30b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Here JPMorgan also chimes in and in a recent note from economist Dan Silver writes that as we prepare for the CPI print, it is worthwhile to consider the impacts of the removal of federal unemployment benefits and increasing hourly wages. In Silver's note, he illustrates the growth in job openings among low-income jobs.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通也加入了进来，经济学家丹·西尔弗(Dan Silver)在最近的一份报告中写道，当我们准备CPI数据时，值得考虑取消联邦失业救济金和增加时薪的影响。在西尔弗的报告中，他说明了低收入工作岗位空缺的增长。</blockquote></p><p> JPM then asks the right question: \"<b>will wage increases remain durable if business owners know that supply is coming back online?\"</b>A question we have asked previously, and the answer is a decisive not. To JPM, if the answer is indeed no, \"we see a quicker than expected deceleration in wage growth, spending, and CPI.\" Although, alternatively, it seems more likely that we will also see a surge in jobs taken and potentially another leg higher in absolute macro data.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通随后提出了正确的问题：“<b>如果企业主知道供应正在恢复，工资上涨会持续吗？”</b>我们以前问过这个问题，答案是决定性的否定。对于摩根大通来说，如果答案确实是否定的，“我们看到工资增长、支出和消费者物价指数的减速速度快于预期。”不过，或者，我们似乎更有可能看到就业岗位激增，绝对宏观数据也可能进一步走高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd33a3897ee720aefc640dc061344a18\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With that in mind, what's next on the inflation catalyst front and what will today's critical CPI print show?&nbsp; Here, Goldman estimates a 0.50% increase in May core CPI (in line with consensus), which will boost the year-on-year rate by six tenths to 3.55%, up from 3.0% which however is largely impacted by the base effect collapse of last year. Goldman's monthly core inflation forecast<b>\"reflects reopening-driven strength in airfares, hotel prices, and recreation prices.\"</b>Additionally, Goldman expects strong monthly readings in used cars (+6%) and new cars (+0.5%), reflecting \"one-time\" supply chain disruptions and microchip shortages.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这一点，通胀催化剂方面的下一步是什么？今天的关键CPI数据将显示什么？在此，高盛预计5月份核心CPI将上涨0.50%（与共识一致），这将使同比增长率从3.0%提高十分之六至3.55%，但这在很大程度上受到基数效应崩溃的影响去年。高盛月度核心通胀预测<b>“反映了重新开放推动的机票、酒店价格和娱乐价格走强。”</b>此外，高盛预计二手车（+6%）和新车（+0.5%）的月度数据将强劲，反映出“一次性”供应链中断和微芯片短缺。</blockquote></p><p> And while the Fed is more concerned with PCE inflation rather than CPI, Goldman concludes that even though the inflation burst is transitory, \"<b>it will be interesting to see how markets react to a 3.5%+ inflation report in a monetary regime that presumably is focused on keeping inflation around 2%.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>尽管美联储更关心PCE通胀而不是CPI，但高盛的结论是，尽管通胀爆发是暂时的，”<b>在一个可能专注于将通胀率保持在2%左右的货币制度中，看看市场对3.5%以上的通胀报告有何反应将会很有趣。”</b></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows<blockquote>高盛解释了为什么无论今天的消费者物价指数显示什么，经济都不会过热</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-10 15:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...</p><p><blockquote>10年期国债收益率自3月初以来首次跌破1.50%，此前曾讨论过激烈的空头挤压...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e87da5d75100fe75f0be86933791246f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be waning as quickly as they flared up.</p><p><blockquote>...随着大流行后的通胀担忧似乎像爆发一样迅速减弱。</blockquote></p><p> This is a point we first brought up last month when observing the collapse in China's credit impulse, arguably the most important variable for the entire global reflationary narrative (see \"China's Credit Impulse Just Turned Negative, Unleashing Global Deflationary Shockwave\")...</p><p><blockquote>这是我们上个月在观察中国信贷冲动崩溃时首次提出的一点，可以说是整个全球再通胀叙事中最重要的变量（见“中国信贷冲动刚刚转为负面，释放全球通缩冲击波”）...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfc3b4fc471bcf50ee51b9be637a3ed4\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... and it's a point that Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius reiterated in a note published on Tuesday titled simply \"Why the Economy Won’t Overheat,” in which he argues - the same as the Fed - that the inflation we are seeing so far is likely to be temporary and prices will normalize again as we leg further away from unprecedented pandemic activity curtailments.</p><p><blockquote>...高盛首席经济学家Jan Hatzius在周二发表的一份题为“为什么经济不会过热”的报告中重申了这一点，他在报告中与美联储一样认为，我们迄今为止看到的通胀很可能是暂时的，随着我们进一步远离前所未有的大流行活动削减，价格将再次正常化。</blockquote></p><p> While we disagree - and so does Deutsche Bank,which sees nothing short of Weimar hyperinflationbeing unleashed by the Fed soon, something we first predicted in March 2009 as the ultimate endgame -&nbsp; it is interesting that today, at least, markets appear to be adopting this view judging by the collapse in 10Y nominal rates and the recent breach of the upward trendline in breakevens...</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们不同意——德意志银行也不同意，它认为美联储很快就会释放魏玛恶性通货膨胀，这是我们在2009年3月首次预测的最终结局——但有趣的是，至少在今天，市场似乎正在接受这一观点，从10年期名义利率的崩溃和最近盈亏平衡上升趋势线的突破来看...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef6de63c2434121178b1a7b351df6ee9\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... this even as China's PPI printed at a Lehman Sept 2008 high of 9.0% overnight.</p><p><blockquote>...尽管中国的PPI一夜之间达到了雷曼兄弟2008年9月的高点9.0%。</blockquote></p><p> So what, according to Goldman is the reason for receding inflation fears? As Hatzius and strategist Chris Hussey explain, the past 2 payrolls reports have been underwhelming as the rush back to work \"is being slowed by generous stimulus as well as an inability — perhaps — to simply process so many new workers. On the one hand, fewer available workers should push up wages as companies compete to attract new workers. But a more orderly stream of employment in the post-pandemic recovery may also allow for a more extended reopening period and perhaps a bit less top-line pressure on prices.\"</p><p><blockquote>那么，高盛认为通胀担忧消退的原因是什么呢？正如Hatzius和策略师Chris Hussey解释的那样，过去的两份就业报告并不令人印象深刻，因为“慷慨的刺激措施以及可能无法简单地处理如此多的新工人，导致重返工作岗位的热潮正在放缓。一方面，随着公司竞相吸引新工人，可用工人的减少应该会推高工资。但在大流行后的复苏中，更有序的就业流动也可能会延长重新开放期，并可能减轻价格的顶线压力。”</blockquote></p><p> Another reason for receding inflation fears may also simply be time. According to Goldman, as Americans become more accustomed to getting back to their daily routines, the strangeness of such activity recedes. And it is perhaps easier for investors to envision what‘normal’ will look like.&nbsp; And perhaps that vision is collectively coalescing around a‘new normal’ that looks surprisingly similiar to the pre-pandemic ‘old normal’.</p><p><blockquote>通胀担忧消退的另一个原因可能只是时间。高盛表示，随着美国人越来越习惯于回到日常生活中，这种活动的陌生感正在消退。投资者也许更容易想象“正常”会是什么样子。也许这种愿景正在围绕一种“新常态”集体凝聚，这种“新常态”看起来与大流行前的“旧常态”惊人地相似。</blockquote></p><p> Hatzius then elaborates why the recent inflation pickup will remain transitory: \"On the wage side,<b>labor supply should increase dramatically over the next 3-6 months as fear of the virus diminishes further and the $300/week benefit top-up expires—over the next few weeks in most Republican-controlled states and on September 6 in the remaining states.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>哈齐乌斯随后阐述了为什么最近的通胀回升仍将是暂时的：“在工资方面，<b>随着对病毒的恐惧进一步减弱以及每周300美元的福利充值到期，劳动力供应应该会在未来3-6个月内大幅增加——大多数共和党控制的州将在未来几周内到期，其余州将在9月6日到期。”</b></blockquote></p><p> In other words, employers will likely hold out another 3 months until the end of emergency benefits expire at which point they expect a flood of workers to reverse the calculus in the labor market,<b>from one of no labor supply to a flood of supply.</b></p><p><blockquote>换句话说，雇主可能会再坚持3个月，直到紧急福利到期，届时他们预计大量工人将扭转劳动力市场的格局，<b>从没有劳动力供应到大量供应。</b></blockquote></p><p> On the price side, Goldman's trimmed core PCE—which excludes the 30% most extreme month-to-month price changes, and as a reminder the surge in inflation last month was largely driven by soaring used car prices and transportation services, or as Goldman puts it \"outliers\" — remains at just 1.56% year-on-year, half the standard core PCE rate.&nbsp; This gap illustrates the unprecedented role of outliers in the recent inflation pickup.</p><p><blockquote>在价格方面，高盛削减的核心PCE——不包括30%最极端的月度价格变化，提醒一下上个月通胀飙升主要是由二手车价格和运输服务飙升推动的，或者正如高盛所说的“异常值”——同比仍仅为1.56%，是标准核心PCE利率的一半。这一差距说明了异常值在近期通胀回升中前所未有的作用。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3eaf58fed43ba69dc0224a4d192f457b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"307\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Ultimately, to Goldman, the biggest question in the overheating debate remains whether US output and employment will rise sharply above potential in the next few years. If the answer is yes, then inflation could indeed climb to undesirable levels on a more permanent basis. Predictably, Goldman's answer continues to be no, and here's why: \"Even though real GDP is nearly back to the pre-pandemic level, we still see significant slack in the economy based on the remaining jobs shortfall of nearly 8 million and the pandemic-driven productivity gain of 4.1% year-on-year in Q1. Moreover, we think sequential GDP growth has probably already peaked in monthly terms and will trend down from here as the fiscal impulse wanes, modestly at first and then more sharply in late 2021 and 2022.\"</p><p><blockquote>最终，对高盛来说，过热辩论中最大的问题仍然是美国产出和就业在未来几年是否会大幅高于潜力。如果答案是肯定的，那么通胀确实可能会在更持久的基础上攀升至不良水平。可以预见的是，高盛的答案仍然是否定的，原因如下：“尽管实际GDP几乎回到了大流行前的水平，但基于剩余的近800万个就业岗位缺口和大流行的推动，我们仍然看到经济显着疲软。第一季度生产率同比增长4.1%。此外，我们认为，按月计算，GDP环比增长可能已经见顶，随着财政刺激的减弱，GDP环比增长将呈下降趋势，先是温和，然后在2021年底和2022年大幅下降。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bbda3c1cc274419a5ecdfeea29dd30b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Here JPMorgan also chimes in and in a recent note from economist Dan Silver writes that as we prepare for the CPI print, it is worthwhile to consider the impacts of the removal of federal unemployment benefits and increasing hourly wages. In Silver's note, he illustrates the growth in job openings among low-income jobs.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通也加入了进来，经济学家丹·西尔弗(Dan Silver)在最近的一份报告中写道，当我们准备CPI数据时，值得考虑取消联邦失业救济金和增加时薪的影响。在西尔弗的报告中，他说明了低收入工作岗位空缺的增长。</blockquote></p><p> JPM then asks the right question: \"<b>will wage increases remain durable if business owners know that supply is coming back online?\"</b>A question we have asked previously, and the answer is a decisive not. To JPM, if the answer is indeed no, \"we see a quicker than expected deceleration in wage growth, spending, and CPI.\" Although, alternatively, it seems more likely that we will also see a surge in jobs taken and potentially another leg higher in absolute macro data.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通随后提出了正确的问题：“<b>如果企业主知道供应正在恢复，工资上涨会持续吗？”</b>我们以前问过这个问题，答案是决定性的否定。对于摩根大通来说，如果答案确实是否定的，“我们看到工资增长、支出和消费者物价指数的减速速度快于预期。”不过，或者，我们似乎更有可能看到就业岗位激增，绝对宏观数据也可能进一步走高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd33a3897ee720aefc640dc061344a18\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With that in mind, what's next on the inflation catalyst front and what will today's critical CPI print show?&nbsp; Here, Goldman estimates a 0.50% increase in May core CPI (in line with consensus), which will boost the year-on-year rate by six tenths to 3.55%, up from 3.0% which however is largely impacted by the base effect collapse of last year. Goldman's monthly core inflation forecast<b>\"reflects reopening-driven strength in airfares, hotel prices, and recreation prices.\"</b>Additionally, Goldman expects strong monthly readings in used cars (+6%) and new cars (+0.5%), reflecting \"one-time\" supply chain disruptions and microchip shortages.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这一点，通胀催化剂方面的下一步是什么？今天的关键CPI数据将显示什么？在此，高盛预计5月份核心CPI将上涨0.50%（与共识一致），这将使同比增长率从3.0%提高十分之六至3.55%，但这在很大程度上受到基数效应崩溃的影响去年。高盛月度核心通胀预测<b>“反映了重新开放推动的机票、酒店价格和娱乐价格走强。”</b>此外，高盛预计二手车（+6%）和新车（+0.5%）的月度数据将强劲，反映出“一次性”供应链中断和微芯片短缺。</blockquote></p><p> And while the Fed is more concerned with PCE inflation rather than CPI, Goldman concludes that even though the inflation burst is transitory, \"<b>it will be interesting to see how markets react to a 3.5%+ inflation report in a monetary regime that presumably is focused on keeping inflation around 2%.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>尽管美联储更关心PCE通胀而不是CPI，但高盛的结论是，尽管通胀爆发是暂时的，”<b>在一个可能专注于将通胀率保持在2%左右的货币制度中，看看市场对3.5%以上的通胀报告有何反应将会很有趣。”</b></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127298356","content_text":"Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...\n... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be waning as quickly as they flared up.\nThis is a point we first brought up last month when observing the collapse in China's credit impulse, arguably the most important variable for the entire global reflationary narrative (see \"China's Credit Impulse Just Turned Negative, Unleashing Global Deflationary Shockwave\")...\n... and it's a point that Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius reiterated in a note published on Tuesday titled simply \"Why the Economy Won’t Overheat,” in which he argues - the same as the Fed - that the inflation we are seeing so far is likely to be temporary and prices will normalize again as we leg further away from unprecedented pandemic activity curtailments.\nWhile we disagree - and so does Deutsche Bank,which sees nothing short of Weimar hyperinflationbeing unleashed by the Fed soon, something we first predicted in March 2009 as the ultimate endgame -  it is interesting that today, at least, markets appear to be adopting this view judging by the collapse in 10Y nominal rates and the recent breach of the upward trendline in breakevens...\n... this even as China's PPI printed at a Lehman Sept 2008 high of 9.0% overnight.\nSo what, according to Goldman is the reason for receding inflation fears? As Hatzius and strategist Chris Hussey explain, the past 2 payrolls reports have been underwhelming as the rush back to work \"is being slowed by generous stimulus as well as an inability — perhaps — to simply process so many new workers. On the one hand, fewer available workers should push up wages as companies compete to attract new workers. But a more orderly stream of employment in the post-pandemic recovery may also allow for a more extended reopening period and perhaps a bit less top-line pressure on prices.\"\nAnother reason for receding inflation fears may also simply be time. According to Goldman, as Americans become more accustomed to getting back to their daily routines, the strangeness of such activity recedes. And it is perhaps easier for investors to envision what‘normal’ will look like.  And perhaps that vision is collectively coalescing around a‘new normal’ that looks surprisingly similiar to the pre-pandemic ‘old normal’.\nHatzius then elaborates why the recent inflation pickup will remain transitory: \"On the wage side,labor supply should increase dramatically over the next 3-6 months as fear of the virus diminishes further and the $300/week benefit top-up expires—over the next few weeks in most Republican-controlled states and on September 6 in the remaining states.\"\nIn other words, employers will likely hold out another 3 months until the end of emergency benefits expire at which point they expect a flood of workers to reverse the calculus in the labor market,from one of no labor supply to a flood of supply.\nOn the price side, Goldman's trimmed core PCE—which excludes the 30% most extreme month-to-month price changes, and as a reminder the surge in inflation last month was largely driven by soaring used car prices and transportation services, or as Goldman puts it \"outliers\" — remains at just 1.56% year-on-year, half the standard core PCE rate.  This gap illustrates the unprecedented role of outliers in the recent inflation pickup.\nUltimately, to Goldman, the biggest question in the overheating debate remains whether US output and employment will rise sharply above potential in the next few years. If the answer is yes, then inflation could indeed climb to undesirable levels on a more permanent basis. Predictably, Goldman's answer continues to be no, and here's why: \"Even though real GDP is nearly back to the pre-pandemic level, we still see significant slack in the economy based on the remaining jobs shortfall of nearly 8 million and the pandemic-driven productivity gain of 4.1% year-on-year in Q1. Moreover, we think sequential GDP growth has probably already peaked in monthly terms and will trend down from here as the fiscal impulse wanes, modestly at first and then more sharply in late 2021 and 2022.\"\nHere JPMorgan also chimes in and in a recent note from economist Dan Silver writes that as we prepare for the CPI print, it is worthwhile to consider the impacts of the removal of federal unemployment benefits and increasing hourly wages. In Silver's note, he illustrates the growth in job openings among low-income jobs.\nJPM then asks the right question: \"will wage increases remain durable if business owners know that supply is coming back online?\"A question we have asked previously, and the answer is a decisive not. To JPM, if the answer is indeed no, \"we see a quicker than expected deceleration in wage growth, spending, and CPI.\" Although, alternatively, it seems more likely that we will also see a surge in jobs taken and potentially another leg higher in absolute macro data.\nWith that in mind, what's next on the inflation catalyst front and what will today's critical CPI print show?  Here, Goldman estimates a 0.50% increase in May core CPI (in line with consensus), which will boost the year-on-year rate by six tenths to 3.55%, up from 3.0% which however is largely impacted by the base effect collapse of last year. Goldman's monthly core inflation forecast\"reflects reopening-driven strength in airfares, hotel prices, and recreation prices.\"Additionally, Goldman expects strong monthly readings in used cars (+6%) and new cars (+0.5%), reflecting \"one-time\" supply chain disruptions and microchip shortages.\nAnd while the Fed is more concerned with PCE inflation rather than CPI, Goldman concludes that even though the inflation burst is transitory, \"it will be interesting to see how markets react to a 3.5%+ inflation report in a monetary regime that presumably is focused on keeping inflation around 2%.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1238,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":188968632,"gmtCreate":1623419628426,"gmtModify":1631890841908,"author":{"id":"3581856277356895","authorId":"3581856277356895","name":"AK91","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/591e829441c63580ff59ffaa06cbee53","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581856277356895","idStr":"3581856277356895"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tiger is here!","listText":"Tiger is here!","text":"Tiger is here!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188968632","repostId":"110267641","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":110267641,"gmtCreate":1622461531680,"gmtModify":1623395239063,"author":{"id":"3539180379992057","authorId":"3539180379992057","name":"好男人不包二奶","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2b6c2434c85440363083276cf42f8df","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3539180379992057","idStr":"3539180379992057"},"themes":[],"title":"三孩生育政策爆笑段子汇总","htmlText":"今天下午各个微信群达成了空前绝后的话题统一，无论是游戏群媒体群炒股群还是同学群水友群全在聊三娃，思路非常广泛，当然，比思路更广泛的是表情包，潜水一下午收购不少，逗您一乐就点个赞呗。 这个消息发布后群全都炸了 居然是一套组合拳 先满上（指仓位 最大输家杜蕾斯 6胎政策警告 绿化政策配三胎政策 看的更长远 灵魂的疑问 顺口溜都出来了 对王之王 年轻人的想法就是特别赋能 不想当生产队的驴 可以当生产队的猪 大家聊的都挺开心的啊 剧本都不敢这么编 答辩生最惨 有的人已经提前完成任务了 人大点赞 请看下图 请看上图 请看历史上的三胎 买房参考 房子不够不要紧 车座不够不要紧 深谋远虑 三胎概念要从娃娃抓起 一步到位吧 恭喜您找到了TRADE，参与《老虎大搜查》活动，下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币，如集齐7张图片并留言，还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。（详情请点击<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查</a> 了解）","listText":"今天下午各个微信群达成了空前绝后的话题统一，无论是游戏群媒体群炒股群还是同学群水友群全在聊三娃，思路非常广泛，当然，比思路更广泛的是表情包，潜水一下午收购不少，逗您一乐就点个赞呗。 这个消息发布后群全都炸了 居然是一套组合拳 先满上（指仓位 最大输家杜蕾斯 6胎政策警告 绿化政策配三胎政策 看的更长远 灵魂的疑问 顺口溜都出来了 对王之王 年轻人的想法就是特别赋能 不想当生产队的驴 可以当生产队的猪 大家聊的都挺开心的啊 剧本都不敢这么编 答辩生最惨 有的人已经提前完成任务了 人大点赞 请看下图 请看上图 请看历史上的三胎 买房参考 房子不够不要紧 车座不够不要紧 深谋远虑 三胎概念要从娃娃抓起 一步到位吧 恭喜您找到了TRADE，参与《老虎大搜查》活动，下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币，如集齐7张图片并留言，还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。（详情请点击<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查</a> 了解）","text":"今天下午各个微信群达成了空前绝后的话题统一，无论是游戏群媒体群炒股群还是同学群水友群全在聊三娃，思路非常广泛，当然，比思路更广泛的是表情包，潜水一下午收购不少，逗您一乐就点个赞呗。 这个消息发布后群全都炸了 居然是一套组合拳 先满上（指仓位 最大输家杜蕾斯 6胎政策警告 绿化政策配三胎政策 看的更长远 灵魂的疑问 顺口溜都出来了 对王之王 年轻人的想法就是特别赋能 不想当生产队的驴 可以当生产队的猪 大家聊的都挺开心的啊 剧本都不敢这么编 答辩生最惨 有的人已经提前完成任务了 人大点赞 请看下图 请看上图 请看历史上的三胎 买房参考 房子不够不要紧 车座不够不要紧 深谋远虑 三胎概念要从娃娃抓起 一步到位吧 恭喜您找到了TRADE，参与《老虎大搜查》活动，下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币，如集齐7张图片并留言，还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。（详情请点击【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 了解）","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21d80f4e3fdfc9ad22bd8dd7f824b454","width":"1130","height":"599"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd51b3bb89aeb118e8505eae89a9b722","width":"705","height":"870"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3c78011480612cee7365696125f80c3","width":"800","height":"800"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/110267641","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":28,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1192,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":183348107,"gmtCreate":1623311086409,"gmtModify":1631890841946,"author":{"id":"3581856277356895","authorId":"3581856277356895","name":"AK91","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/591e829441c63580ff59ffaa06cbee53","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581856277356895","idStr":"3581856277356895"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/183348107","repostId":"1127298356","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127298356","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623310533,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1127298356?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-10 15:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows<blockquote>高盛解释了为什么无论今天的消费者物价指数显示什么，经济都不会过热</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127298356","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a fu","content":"<p>Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...</p><p><blockquote>10年期国债收益率自3月初以来首次跌破1.50%，此前曾讨论过激烈的空头挤压...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e87da5d75100fe75f0be86933791246f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be waning as quickly as they flared up.</p><p><blockquote>...随着大流行后的通胀担忧似乎像爆发一样迅速减弱。</blockquote></p><p> This is a point we first brought up last month when observing the collapse in China's credit impulse, arguably the most important variable for the entire global reflationary narrative (see \"China's Credit Impulse Just Turned Negative, Unleashing Global Deflationary Shockwave\")...</p><p><blockquote>这是我们上个月在观察中国信贷冲动崩溃时首次提出的一点，可以说是整个全球再通胀叙事中最重要的变量（见“中国信贷冲动刚刚转为负面，释放全球通缩冲击波”）...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfc3b4fc471bcf50ee51b9be637a3ed4\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... and it's a point that Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius reiterated in a note published on Tuesday titled simply \"Why the Economy Won’t Overheat,” in which he argues - the same as the Fed - that the inflation we are seeing so far is likely to be temporary and prices will normalize again as we leg further away from unprecedented pandemic activity curtailments.</p><p><blockquote>...高盛首席经济学家Jan Hatzius在周二发表的一份题为“为什么经济不会过热”的报告中重申了这一点，他在报告中与美联储一样认为，我们迄今为止看到的通胀很可能是暂时的，随着我们进一步远离前所未有的大流行活动削减，价格将再次正常化。</blockquote></p><p> While we disagree - and so does Deutsche Bank,which sees nothing short of Weimar hyperinflationbeing unleashed by the Fed soon, something we first predicted in March 2009 as the ultimate endgame -&nbsp; it is interesting that today, at least, markets appear to be adopting this view judging by the collapse in 10Y nominal rates and the recent breach of the upward trendline in breakevens...</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们不同意——德意志银行也不同意，它认为美联储很快就会释放魏玛恶性通货膨胀，这是我们在2009年3月首次预测的最终结局——但有趣的是，至少在今天，市场似乎正在接受这一观点，从10年期名义利率的崩溃和最近盈亏平衡上升趋势线的突破来看...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef6de63c2434121178b1a7b351df6ee9\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... this even as China's PPI printed at a Lehman Sept 2008 high of 9.0% overnight.</p><p><blockquote>...尽管中国的PPI一夜之间达到了雷曼兄弟2008年9月的高点9.0%。</blockquote></p><p> So what, according to Goldman is the reason for receding inflation fears? As Hatzius and strategist Chris Hussey explain, the past 2 payrolls reports have been underwhelming as the rush back to work \"is being slowed by generous stimulus as well as an inability — perhaps — to simply process so many new workers. On the one hand, fewer available workers should push up wages as companies compete to attract new workers. But a more orderly stream of employment in the post-pandemic recovery may also allow for a more extended reopening period and perhaps a bit less top-line pressure on prices.\"</p><p><blockquote>那么，高盛认为通胀担忧消退的原因是什么呢？正如Hatzius和策略师Chris Hussey解释的那样，过去的两份就业报告并不令人印象深刻，因为“慷慨的刺激措施以及可能无法简单地处理如此多的新工人，导致重返工作岗位的热潮正在放缓。一方面，随着公司竞相吸引新工人，可用工人的减少应该会推高工资。但在大流行后的复苏中，更有序的就业流动也可能会延长重新开放期，并可能减轻价格的顶线压力。”</blockquote></p><p> Another reason for receding inflation fears may also simply be time. According to Goldman, as Americans become more accustomed to getting back to their daily routines, the strangeness of such activity recedes. And it is perhaps easier for investors to envision what‘normal’ will look like.&nbsp; And perhaps that vision is collectively coalescing around a‘new normal’ that looks surprisingly similiar to the pre-pandemic ‘old normal’.</p><p><blockquote>通胀担忧消退的另一个原因可能只是时间。高盛表示，随着美国人越来越习惯于回到日常生活中，这种活动的陌生感正在消退。投资者也许更容易想象“正常”会是什么样子。也许这种愿景正在围绕一种“新常态”集体凝聚，这种“新常态”看起来与大流行前的“旧常态”惊人地相似。</blockquote></p><p> Hatzius then elaborates why the recent inflation pickup will remain transitory: \"On the wage side,<b>labor supply should increase dramatically over the next 3-6 months as fear of the virus diminishes further and the $300/week benefit top-up expires—over the next few weeks in most Republican-controlled states and on September 6 in the remaining states.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>哈齐乌斯随后阐述了为什么最近的通胀回升仍将是暂时的：“在工资方面，<b>随着对病毒的恐惧进一步减弱以及每周300美元的福利充值到期，劳动力供应应该会在未来3-6个月内大幅增加——大多数共和党控制的州将在未来几周内到期，其余州将在9月6日到期。”</b></blockquote></p><p> In other words, employers will likely hold out another 3 months until the end of emergency benefits expire at which point they expect a flood of workers to reverse the calculus in the labor market,<b>from one of no labor supply to a flood of supply.</b></p><p><blockquote>换句话说，雇主可能会再坚持3个月，直到紧急福利到期，届时他们预计大量工人将扭转劳动力市场的格局，<b>从没有劳动力供应到大量供应。</b></blockquote></p><p> On the price side, Goldman's trimmed core PCE—which excludes the 30% most extreme month-to-month price changes, and as a reminder the surge in inflation last month was largely driven by soaring used car prices and transportation services, or as Goldman puts it \"outliers\" — remains at just 1.56% year-on-year, half the standard core PCE rate.&nbsp; This gap illustrates the unprecedented role of outliers in the recent inflation pickup.</p><p><blockquote>在价格方面，高盛削减的核心PCE——不包括30%最极端的月度价格变化，提醒一下上个月通胀飙升主要是由二手车价格和运输服务飙升推动的，或者正如高盛所说的“异常值”——同比仍仅为1.56%，是标准核心PCE利率的一半。这一差距说明了异常值在近期通胀回升中前所未有的作用。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3eaf58fed43ba69dc0224a4d192f457b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"307\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Ultimately, to Goldman, the biggest question in the overheating debate remains whether US output and employment will rise sharply above potential in the next few years. If the answer is yes, then inflation could indeed climb to undesirable levels on a more permanent basis. Predictably, Goldman's answer continues to be no, and here's why: \"Even though real GDP is nearly back to the pre-pandemic level, we still see significant slack in the economy based on the remaining jobs shortfall of nearly 8 million and the pandemic-driven productivity gain of 4.1% year-on-year in Q1. Moreover, we think sequential GDP growth has probably already peaked in monthly terms and will trend down from here as the fiscal impulse wanes, modestly at first and then more sharply in late 2021 and 2022.\"</p><p><blockquote>最终，对高盛来说，过热辩论中最大的问题仍然是美国产出和就业在未来几年是否会大幅高于潜力。如果答案是肯定的，那么通胀确实可能会在更持久的基础上攀升至不良水平。可以预见的是，高盛的答案仍然是否定的，原因如下：“尽管实际GDP几乎回到了大流行前的水平，但基于剩余的近800万个就业岗位缺口和大流行的推动，我们仍然看到经济显着疲软。第一季度生产率同比增长4.1%。此外，我们认为，按月计算，GDP环比增长可能已经见顶，随着财政刺激的减弱，GDP环比增长将呈下降趋势，先是温和，然后在2021年底和2022年大幅下降。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bbda3c1cc274419a5ecdfeea29dd30b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Here JPMorgan also chimes in and in a recent note from economist Dan Silver writes that as we prepare for the CPI print, it is worthwhile to consider the impacts of the removal of federal unemployment benefits and increasing hourly wages. In Silver's note, he illustrates the growth in job openings among low-income jobs.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通也加入了进来，经济学家丹·西尔弗(Dan Silver)在最近的一份报告中写道，当我们准备CPI数据时，值得考虑取消联邦失业救济金和增加时薪的影响。在西尔弗的报告中，他说明了低收入工作岗位空缺的增长。</blockquote></p><p> JPM then asks the right question: \"<b>will wage increases remain durable if business owners know that supply is coming back online?\"</b>A question we have asked previously, and the answer is a decisive not. To JPM, if the answer is indeed no, \"we see a quicker than expected deceleration in wage growth, spending, and CPI.\" Although, alternatively, it seems more likely that we will also see a surge in jobs taken and potentially another leg higher in absolute macro data.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通随后提出了正确的问题：“<b>如果企业主知道供应正在恢复，工资上涨会持续吗？”</b>我们以前问过这个问题，答案是决定性的否定。对于摩根大通来说，如果答案确实是否定的，“我们看到工资增长、支出和消费者物价指数的减速速度快于预期。”不过，或者，我们似乎更有可能看到就业岗位激增，绝对宏观数据也可能进一步走高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd33a3897ee720aefc640dc061344a18\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With that in mind, what's next on the inflation catalyst front and what will today's critical CPI print show?&nbsp; Here, Goldman estimates a 0.50% increase in May core CPI (in line with consensus), which will boost the year-on-year rate by six tenths to 3.55%, up from 3.0% which however is largely impacted by the base effect collapse of last year. Goldman's monthly core inflation forecast<b>\"reflects reopening-driven strength in airfares, hotel prices, and recreation prices.\"</b>Additionally, Goldman expects strong monthly readings in used cars (+6%) and new cars (+0.5%), reflecting \"one-time\" supply chain disruptions and microchip shortages.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这一点，通胀催化剂方面的下一步是什么？今天的关键CPI数据将显示什么？在此，高盛预计5月份核心CPI将上涨0.50%（与共识一致），这将使同比增长率从3.0%提高十分之六至3.55%，但这在很大程度上受到基数效应崩溃的影响去年。高盛月度核心通胀预测<b>“反映了重新开放推动的机票、酒店价格和娱乐价格走强。”</b>此外，高盛预计二手车（+6%）和新车（+0.5%）的月度数据将强劲，反映出“一次性”供应链中断和微芯片短缺。</blockquote></p><p> And while the Fed is more concerned with PCE inflation rather than CPI, Goldman concludes that even though the inflation burst is transitory, \"<b>it will be interesting to see how markets react to a 3.5%+ inflation report in a monetary regime that presumably is focused on keeping inflation around 2%.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>尽管美联储更关心PCE通胀而不是CPI，但高盛的结论是，尽管通胀爆发是暂时的，”<b>在一个可能专注于将通胀率保持在2%左右的货币制度中，看看市场对3.5%以上的通胀报告有何反应将会很有趣。”</b></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows<blockquote>高盛解释了为什么无论今天的消费者物价指数显示什么，经济都不会过热</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-10 15:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...</p><p><blockquote>10年期国债收益率自3月初以来首次跌破1.50%，此前曾讨论过激烈的空头挤压...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e87da5d75100fe75f0be86933791246f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be waning as quickly as they flared up.</p><p><blockquote>...随着大流行后的通胀担忧似乎像爆发一样迅速减弱。</blockquote></p><p> This is a point we first brought up last month when observing the collapse in China's credit impulse, arguably the most important variable for the entire global reflationary narrative (see \"China's Credit Impulse Just Turned Negative, Unleashing Global Deflationary Shockwave\")...</p><p><blockquote>这是我们上个月在观察中国信贷冲动崩溃时首次提出的一点，可以说是整个全球再通胀叙事中最重要的变量（见“中国信贷冲动刚刚转为负面，释放全球通缩冲击波”）...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfc3b4fc471bcf50ee51b9be637a3ed4\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... and it's a point that Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius reiterated in a note published on Tuesday titled simply \"Why the Economy Won’t Overheat,” in which he argues - the same as the Fed - that the inflation we are seeing so far is likely to be temporary and prices will normalize again as we leg further away from unprecedented pandemic activity curtailments.</p><p><blockquote>...高盛首席经济学家Jan Hatzius在周二发表的一份题为“为什么经济不会过热”的报告中重申了这一点，他在报告中与美联储一样认为，我们迄今为止看到的通胀很可能是暂时的，随着我们进一步远离前所未有的大流行活动削减，价格将再次正常化。</blockquote></p><p> While we disagree - and so does Deutsche Bank,which sees nothing short of Weimar hyperinflationbeing unleashed by the Fed soon, something we first predicted in March 2009 as the ultimate endgame -&nbsp; it is interesting that today, at least, markets appear to be adopting this view judging by the collapse in 10Y nominal rates and the recent breach of the upward trendline in breakevens...</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们不同意——德意志银行也不同意，它认为美联储很快就会释放魏玛恶性通货膨胀，这是我们在2009年3月首次预测的最终结局——但有趣的是，至少在今天，市场似乎正在接受这一观点，从10年期名义利率的崩溃和最近盈亏平衡上升趋势线的突破来看...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef6de63c2434121178b1a7b351df6ee9\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... this even as China's PPI printed at a Lehman Sept 2008 high of 9.0% overnight.</p><p><blockquote>...尽管中国的PPI一夜之间达到了雷曼兄弟2008年9月的高点9.0%。</blockquote></p><p> So what, according to Goldman is the reason for receding inflation fears? As Hatzius and strategist Chris Hussey explain, the past 2 payrolls reports have been underwhelming as the rush back to work \"is being slowed by generous stimulus as well as an inability — perhaps — to simply process so many new workers. On the one hand, fewer available workers should push up wages as companies compete to attract new workers. But a more orderly stream of employment in the post-pandemic recovery may also allow for a more extended reopening period and perhaps a bit less top-line pressure on prices.\"</p><p><blockquote>那么，高盛认为通胀担忧消退的原因是什么呢？正如Hatzius和策略师Chris Hussey解释的那样，过去的两份就业报告并不令人印象深刻，因为“慷慨的刺激措施以及可能无法简单地处理如此多的新工人，导致重返工作岗位的热潮正在放缓。一方面，随着公司竞相吸引新工人，可用工人的减少应该会推高工资。但在大流行后的复苏中，更有序的就业流动也可能会延长重新开放期，并可能减轻价格的顶线压力。”</blockquote></p><p> Another reason for receding inflation fears may also simply be time. According to Goldman, as Americans become more accustomed to getting back to their daily routines, the strangeness of such activity recedes. And it is perhaps easier for investors to envision what‘normal’ will look like.&nbsp; And perhaps that vision is collectively coalescing around a‘new normal’ that looks surprisingly similiar to the pre-pandemic ‘old normal’.</p><p><blockquote>通胀担忧消退的另一个原因可能只是时间。高盛表示，随着美国人越来越习惯于回到日常生活中，这种活动的陌生感正在消退。投资者也许更容易想象“正常”会是什么样子。也许这种愿景正在围绕一种“新常态”集体凝聚，这种“新常态”看起来与大流行前的“旧常态”惊人地相似。</blockquote></p><p> Hatzius then elaborates why the recent inflation pickup will remain transitory: \"On the wage side,<b>labor supply should increase dramatically over the next 3-6 months as fear of the virus diminishes further and the $300/week benefit top-up expires—over the next few weeks in most Republican-controlled states and on September 6 in the remaining states.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>哈齐乌斯随后阐述了为什么最近的通胀回升仍将是暂时的：“在工资方面，<b>随着对病毒的恐惧进一步减弱以及每周300美元的福利充值到期，劳动力供应应该会在未来3-6个月内大幅增加——大多数共和党控制的州将在未来几周内到期，其余州将在9月6日到期。”</b></blockquote></p><p> In other words, employers will likely hold out another 3 months until the end of emergency benefits expire at which point they expect a flood of workers to reverse the calculus in the labor market,<b>from one of no labor supply to a flood of supply.</b></p><p><blockquote>换句话说，雇主可能会再坚持3个月，直到紧急福利到期，届时他们预计大量工人将扭转劳动力市场的格局，<b>从没有劳动力供应到大量供应。</b></blockquote></p><p> On the price side, Goldman's trimmed core PCE—which excludes the 30% most extreme month-to-month price changes, and as a reminder the surge in inflation last month was largely driven by soaring used car prices and transportation services, or as Goldman puts it \"outliers\" — remains at just 1.56% year-on-year, half the standard core PCE rate.&nbsp; This gap illustrates the unprecedented role of outliers in the recent inflation pickup.</p><p><blockquote>在价格方面，高盛削减的核心PCE——不包括30%最极端的月度价格变化，提醒一下上个月通胀飙升主要是由二手车价格和运输服务飙升推动的，或者正如高盛所说的“异常值”——同比仍仅为1.56%，是标准核心PCE利率的一半。这一差距说明了异常值在近期通胀回升中前所未有的作用。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3eaf58fed43ba69dc0224a4d192f457b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"307\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Ultimately, to Goldman, the biggest question in the overheating debate remains whether US output and employment will rise sharply above potential in the next few years. If the answer is yes, then inflation could indeed climb to undesirable levels on a more permanent basis. Predictably, Goldman's answer continues to be no, and here's why: \"Even though real GDP is nearly back to the pre-pandemic level, we still see significant slack in the economy based on the remaining jobs shortfall of nearly 8 million and the pandemic-driven productivity gain of 4.1% year-on-year in Q1. Moreover, we think sequential GDP growth has probably already peaked in monthly terms and will trend down from here as the fiscal impulse wanes, modestly at first and then more sharply in late 2021 and 2022.\"</p><p><blockquote>最终，对高盛来说，过热辩论中最大的问题仍然是美国产出和就业在未来几年是否会大幅高于潜力。如果答案是肯定的，那么通胀确实可能会在更持久的基础上攀升至不良水平。可以预见的是，高盛的答案仍然是否定的，原因如下：“尽管实际GDP几乎回到了大流行前的水平，但基于剩余的近800万个就业岗位缺口和大流行的推动，我们仍然看到经济显着疲软。第一季度生产率同比增长4.1%。此外，我们认为，按月计算，GDP环比增长可能已经见顶，随着财政刺激的减弱，GDP环比增长将呈下降趋势，先是温和，然后在2021年底和2022年大幅下降。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bbda3c1cc274419a5ecdfeea29dd30b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Here JPMorgan also chimes in and in a recent note from economist Dan Silver writes that as we prepare for the CPI print, it is worthwhile to consider the impacts of the removal of federal unemployment benefits and increasing hourly wages. In Silver's note, he illustrates the growth in job openings among low-income jobs.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通也加入了进来，经济学家丹·西尔弗(Dan Silver)在最近的一份报告中写道，当我们准备CPI数据时，值得考虑取消联邦失业救济金和增加时薪的影响。在西尔弗的报告中，他说明了低收入工作岗位空缺的增长。</blockquote></p><p> JPM then asks the right question: \"<b>will wage increases remain durable if business owners know that supply is coming back online?\"</b>A question we have asked previously, and the answer is a decisive not. To JPM, if the answer is indeed no, \"we see a quicker than expected deceleration in wage growth, spending, and CPI.\" Although, alternatively, it seems more likely that we will also see a surge in jobs taken and potentially another leg higher in absolute macro data.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通随后提出了正确的问题：“<b>如果企业主知道供应正在恢复，工资上涨会持续吗？”</b>我们以前问过这个问题，答案是决定性的否定。对于摩根大通来说，如果答案确实是否定的，“我们看到工资增长、支出和消费者物价指数的减速速度快于预期。”不过，或者，我们似乎更有可能看到就业岗位激增，绝对宏观数据也可能进一步走高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd33a3897ee720aefc640dc061344a18\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With that in mind, what's next on the inflation catalyst front and what will today's critical CPI print show?&nbsp; Here, Goldman estimates a 0.50% increase in May core CPI (in line with consensus), which will boost the year-on-year rate by six tenths to 3.55%, up from 3.0% which however is largely impacted by the base effect collapse of last year. Goldman's monthly core inflation forecast<b>\"reflects reopening-driven strength in airfares, hotel prices, and recreation prices.\"</b>Additionally, Goldman expects strong monthly readings in used cars (+6%) and new cars (+0.5%), reflecting \"one-time\" supply chain disruptions and microchip shortages.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这一点，通胀催化剂方面的下一步是什么？今天的关键CPI数据将显示什么？在此，高盛预计5月份核心CPI将上涨0.50%（与共识一致），这将使同比增长率从3.0%提高十分之六至3.55%，但这在很大程度上受到基数效应崩溃的影响去年。高盛月度核心通胀预测<b>“反映了重新开放推动的机票、酒店价格和娱乐价格走强。”</b>此外，高盛预计二手车（+6%）和新车（+0.5%）的月度数据将强劲，反映出“一次性”供应链中断和微芯片短缺。</blockquote></p><p> And while the Fed is more concerned with PCE inflation rather than CPI, Goldman concludes that even though the inflation burst is transitory, \"<b>it will be interesting to see how markets react to a 3.5%+ inflation report in a monetary regime that presumably is focused on keeping inflation around 2%.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>尽管美联储更关心PCE通胀而不是CPI，但高盛的结论是，尽管通胀爆发是暂时的，”<b>在一个可能专注于将通胀率保持在2%左右的货币制度中，看看市场对3.5%以上的通胀报告有何反应将会很有趣。”</b></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127298356","content_text":"Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...\n... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be waning as quickly as they flared up.\nThis is a point we first brought up last month when observing the collapse in China's credit impulse, arguably the most important variable for the entire global reflationary narrative (see \"China's Credit Impulse Just Turned Negative, Unleashing Global Deflationary Shockwave\")...\n... and it's a point that Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius reiterated in a note published on Tuesday titled simply \"Why the Economy Won’t Overheat,” in which he argues - the same as the Fed - that the inflation we are seeing so far is likely to be temporary and prices will normalize again as we leg further away from unprecedented pandemic activity curtailments.\nWhile we disagree - and so does Deutsche Bank,which sees nothing short of Weimar hyperinflationbeing unleashed by the Fed soon, something we first predicted in March 2009 as the ultimate endgame -  it is interesting that today, at least, markets appear to be adopting this view judging by the collapse in 10Y nominal rates and the recent breach of the upward trendline in breakevens...\n... this even as China's PPI printed at a Lehman Sept 2008 high of 9.0% overnight.\nSo what, according to Goldman is the reason for receding inflation fears? As Hatzius and strategist Chris Hussey explain, the past 2 payrolls reports have been underwhelming as the rush back to work \"is being slowed by generous stimulus as well as an inability — perhaps — to simply process so many new workers. On the one hand, fewer available workers should push up wages as companies compete to attract new workers. But a more orderly stream of employment in the post-pandemic recovery may also allow for a more extended reopening period and perhaps a bit less top-line pressure on prices.\"\nAnother reason for receding inflation fears may also simply be time. According to Goldman, as Americans become more accustomed to getting back to their daily routines, the strangeness of such activity recedes. And it is perhaps easier for investors to envision what‘normal’ will look like.  And perhaps that vision is collectively coalescing around a‘new normal’ that looks surprisingly similiar to the pre-pandemic ‘old normal’.\nHatzius then elaborates why the recent inflation pickup will remain transitory: \"On the wage side,labor supply should increase dramatically over the next 3-6 months as fear of the virus diminishes further and the $300/week benefit top-up expires—over the next few weeks in most Republican-controlled states and on September 6 in the remaining states.\"\nIn other words, employers will likely hold out another 3 months until the end of emergency benefits expire at which point they expect a flood of workers to reverse the calculus in the labor market,from one of no labor supply to a flood of supply.\nOn the price side, Goldman's trimmed core PCE—which excludes the 30% most extreme month-to-month price changes, and as a reminder the surge in inflation last month was largely driven by soaring used car prices and transportation services, or as Goldman puts it \"outliers\" — remains at just 1.56% year-on-year, half the standard core PCE rate.  This gap illustrates the unprecedented role of outliers in the recent inflation pickup.\nUltimately, to Goldman, the biggest question in the overheating debate remains whether US output and employment will rise sharply above potential in the next few years. If the answer is yes, then inflation could indeed climb to undesirable levels on a more permanent basis. Predictably, Goldman's answer continues to be no, and here's why: \"Even though real GDP is nearly back to the pre-pandemic level, we still see significant slack in the economy based on the remaining jobs shortfall of nearly 8 million and the pandemic-driven productivity gain of 4.1% year-on-year in Q1. Moreover, we think sequential GDP growth has probably already peaked in monthly terms and will trend down from here as the fiscal impulse wanes, modestly at first and then more sharply in late 2021 and 2022.\"\nHere JPMorgan also chimes in and in a recent note from economist Dan Silver writes that as we prepare for the CPI print, it is worthwhile to consider the impacts of the removal of federal unemployment benefits and increasing hourly wages. In Silver's note, he illustrates the growth in job openings among low-income jobs.\nJPM then asks the right question: \"will wage increases remain durable if business owners know that supply is coming back online?\"A question we have asked previously, and the answer is a decisive not. To JPM, if the answer is indeed no, \"we see a quicker than expected deceleration in wage growth, spending, and CPI.\" Although, alternatively, it seems more likely that we will also see a surge in jobs taken and potentially another leg higher in absolute macro data.\nWith that in mind, what's next on the inflation catalyst front and what will today's critical CPI print show?  Here, Goldman estimates a 0.50% increase in May core CPI (in line with consensus), which will boost the year-on-year rate by six tenths to 3.55%, up from 3.0% which however is largely impacted by the base effect collapse of last year. Goldman's monthly core inflation forecast\"reflects reopening-driven strength in airfares, hotel prices, and recreation prices.\"Additionally, Goldman expects strong monthly readings in used cars (+6%) and new cars (+0.5%), reflecting \"one-time\" supply chain disruptions and microchip shortages.\nAnd while the Fed is more concerned with PCE inflation rather than CPI, Goldman concludes that even though the inflation burst is transitory, \"it will be interesting to see how markets react to a 3.5%+ inflation report in a monetary regime that presumably is focused on keeping inflation around 2%.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1238,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188982564,"gmtCreate":1623419448758,"gmtModify":1631890841931,"author":{"id":"3581856277356895","authorId":"3581856277356895","name":"AK91","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/591e829441c63580ff59ffaa06cbee53","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581856277356895","idStr":"3581856277356895"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tiger is here!","listText":"Tiger is here!","text":"Tiger is here!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188982564","repostId":"1140839418","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1140839418","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623382205,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1140839418?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-11 11:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"一张图读懂滴滴招股书：遍布15国，日均单量4100万","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140839418","media":"腾讯科技","summary":"6月11日消息，美国当地时间周四，$滴滴出行 $的运营主体小桔快智向美国证券交易委员会提交了IPO招股书，计划在纳斯达克股票市场或纽约证券交易所挂牌上市，股票代码为“DIDI”。根据滴滴披露的数据显示，目前滴滴已经在15个国家的4000多个城市和地区开通业务，年活跃用户数量4.93亿，年活跃司机数量1500万，日均单量4100万，年平台交易总额3410亿元，2018年至2021年Q1累计司机收入6000+亿元。","content":"<p>6月11日消息，美国当地时间周四，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">滴滴出行</a>的运营主体小桔快智向美国证券交易委员会（SEC）提交了IPO招股书，计划在纳斯达克股票市场或纽约证券交易所挂牌上市，股票代码为“DIDI”。</p>\n<p>根据滴滴披露的数据显示，目前滴滴已经在15个国家的4000多个城市和地区开通业务，年活跃用户数量4.93亿，年活跃司机数量1500万，日均单量4100万，年平台交易总额3410亿元，2018年至2021年Q1累计司机收入6000+亿元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a935c6b681f2f3744604b5596e29cac\" tg-width=\"2100\" tg-height=\"13686\"></p>\n<hr>\n<p>恭喜您找到了字母I，参与《老虎大搜查》活动，下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币，如集齐7张图片并留言，还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。（详情请点击<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查</a> 了解）<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba72fe98df37f49a4d31b0a0684a03aa\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>\n<p></p>","source":"txkj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>一张图读懂滴滴招股书：遍布15国，日均单量4100万</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n一张图读懂滴滴招股书：遍布15国，日均单量4100万\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-11 11:30 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20210611A02NC800><strong>腾讯科技</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>6月11日消息，美国当地时间周四，滴滴出行的运营主体小桔快智向美国证券交易委员会（SEC）提交了IPO招股书，计划在纳斯达克股票市场或纽约证券交易所挂牌上市，股票代码为“DIDI”。\n根据滴滴披露的数据显示，目前滴滴已经在15个国家的4000多个城市和地区开通业务，年活跃用户数量4.93亿，年活跃司机数量1500万，日均单量4100万，年平台交易总额3410亿元，2018年至2021年Q1累计司机...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20210611A02NC800\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9f14473f3e986de32cc80f6fd80b679","relate_stocks":{"DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)"},"source_url":"https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20210611A02NC800","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140839418","content_text":"6月11日消息，美国当地时间周四，滴滴出行的运营主体小桔快智向美国证券交易委员会（SEC）提交了IPO招股书，计划在纳斯达克股票市场或纽约证券交易所挂牌上市，股票代码为“DIDI”。\n根据滴滴披露的数据显示，目前滴滴已经在15个国家的4000多个城市和地区开通业务，年活跃用户数量4.93亿，年活跃司机数量1500万，日均单量4100万，年平台交易总额3410亿元，2018年至2021年Q1累计司机收入6000+亿元。\n\n\n恭喜您找到了字母I，参与《老虎大搜查》活动，下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币，如集齐7张图片并留言，还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。（详情请点击【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 了解）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DIDI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1182,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":165409288,"gmtCreate":1624153931544,"gmtModify":1631890841899,"author":{"id":"3581856277356895","authorId":"3581856277356895","name":"AK91","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/591e829441c63580ff59ffaa06cbee53","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581856277356895","idStr":"3581856277356895"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/165409288","repostId":"2144774740","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2144774740","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"The leading daily newsletter for the latest financial and business news. 33Yrs Helping Stock Investors with Investing Insights, Tools, News & More.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Investors","id":"1085713068","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/608dd68a89ed486e18f64efe3136266c"},"pubTimestamp":1624030096,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2144774740?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 23:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Adobe Getting Lift From Economic Reopening Post-Pandemic<blockquote>Adobe从大流行后经济重新开放中获得提振</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144774740","media":"Investors","summary":"Software giant Adobe is benefiting as the economy reopens following the Covid-19 pandemic, a senior executive says.","content":"<p>Software giant <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a></b> is benefiting as the economy reopens as the Covid-19 pandemic wanes, a senior executive says. The company's beat-and-raise quarterly report provided proof of that. ADBE stock jumped on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>软件巨头<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">土坯</a></b>一位高管表示，随着Covid-19大流行消退，经济重新开放，该公司正在受益。该公司的季度报告证明了这一点。ADBE股价周五上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The maker of digital media and marketing software late Thursday reported fiscal second-quarter earnings that easily topped expectations. Adobe also guided above views for the current quarter.</p><p><blockquote>这家数字媒体和营销软件制造商周四晚些时候公布的第二财季收益轻松超出预期。Adobe还指导了本季度的上述观点。</blockquote></p><p> The San Jose, Calif.-based company earned an adjusted $3.03 a share on sales of $3.84 billion in the quarter ended June 4. On a year-over-year basis, Adobe earnings rose 24% while sales climbed 23%.</p><p><blockquote>这家总部位于加利福尼亚州圣何塞的公司在截至6月4日的季度销售额为38.4亿美元，调整后每股收益为3.03美元。与去年同期相比，Adobe盈利增长24%，销售额增长23%。</blockquote></p><p> For the current quarter, Adobe expects to earn an adjusted $3 a share, up 17%, on sales of $3.88 billion, up 20%.</p><p><blockquote>Adobe预计本季度调整后每股收益为3美元，增长17%，销售额为38.8亿美元，增长20%。</blockquote></p><p> <h2>ADBE Stock Rises After Earnings Report</h2> In morning trading on the stock market today, ADBE stock advanced 2.2%, near 563.35. Earlier in the session, ADBE stock notched a record high 570.</p><p><blockquote><h2>ADBE股价在收益报告后上涨</h2>今天股市早盘交易中，ADBE股价上涨2.2%，接近563.35点。盘中早些时候，ADBE股价创下570点的历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> \"All three of our businesses — Creative Cloud, Document Cloud and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EXP.AU\">Experience</a> Cloud — just killed it this quarter with excellent performance,\" Chief Financial Officer John Murphy told Investor's Business Daily. \"Content creation and customer experience engagement in personalized ways are resonating across all of our businesses. And it's really driving the momentum and acceleration in the business.\"</p><p><blockquote>“我们的三项业务——创意云、文档云和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EXP.AU\">经验</a>云——本季度刚刚以出色的表现击败了它，”首席财务官约翰·墨菲(John Murphy)告诉《投资者商业日报》。“以个性化方式进行内容创作和客户体验参与正在我们所有业务中引起共鸣。它确实推动了业务的发展势头和加速。”</blockquote></p><p> That momentum will continue in the company's seasonally weaker fiscal third quarter, Murphy said. The current quarter includes the summer months of June, July and August.</p><p><blockquote>墨菲表示，这种势头将在该公司季节性疲软的第三财季持续下去。本季度包括夏季的六月、七月和八月。</blockquote></p><p> \"The macroeconomic stability is giving a lot of enterprises confidence to invest again,\" Murphy said. \"Companies are prioritizing digital transformation.\"</p><p><blockquote>墨菲表示：“宏观经济稳定给了很多企业再次投资的信心。”“企业正在优先考虑数字化转型。”</blockquote></p><p> The reopening of the economy and return to offices after the pandemic should provide a tailwind for Adobe's business, he said.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，疫情过后经济的重新开放和重返办公室应该会为Adobe的业务提供推动力。</blockquote></p><p> <h2>Analysts Raise Price Targets On Adobe Stock</h2> At least 15 Wall Street analysts raised their price targets on ADBE stock after the earnings report.</p><p><blockquote><h2>分析师提高Adobe股票的目标价</h2>财报发布后，至少15名华尔街分析师上调了ADBE股票的目标价。</blockquote></p><p> Mizuho Securities analyst Gregg Moskowitz reiterated his buy rating on ADBE stock and upped his price target to 640 from 600.</p><p><blockquote>瑞穗证券分析师Gregg Moskowitz重申了对ADBE股票的买入评级，并将目标价从600点上调至640点。</blockquote></p><p> \"Adobe's expansive portfolio of software solutions has made it the gold standard in content creation, consumption, and collaboration,\" Moskowitz said in a note to clients. \"Adobe is very well positioned to benefit from digital transformation with its comprehensive end-to-end offering that differentiates it from competitors.\"</p><p><blockquote>莫斯科维茨在给客户的一份报告中表示：“Adobe广泛的软件解决方案组合使其成为内容创建、消费和协作的黄金标准。”“Adobe凭借其全面的端到端产品使其与竞争对手区分开来，处于有利地位，可以从数字化转型中受益。”</blockquote></p><p> On June 11, ADBE stock broke out of a 40-week&nbsp;consolidation period&nbsp;at a&nbsp;buy point&nbsp;of 536.98, according to&nbsp;IBD MarketSmith charts.</p><p><blockquote>根据IBD MarketSmith图表，6月11日，ADBE股票突破了40周的盘整期，买入点为536.98。</blockquote></p><p> However, IBD Leaderboard analysis offered investors an earlier buy point of 525.54 from a cup base within the larger consolidation pattern.</p><p><blockquote>然而，IBD排行榜分析为投资者提供了较大盘整格局中杯基的早期买入点525.54。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Adobe Getting Lift From Economic Reopening Post-Pandemic<blockquote>Adobe从大流行后经济重新开放中获得提振</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAdobe Getting Lift From Economic Reopening Post-Pandemic<blockquote>Adobe从大流行后经济重新开放中获得提振</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/608dd68a89ed486e18f64efe3136266c);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Investors </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-18 23:28</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Software giant <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a></b> is benefiting as the economy reopens as the Covid-19 pandemic wanes, a senior executive says. The company's beat-and-raise quarterly report provided proof of that. ADBE stock jumped on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>软件巨头<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">土坯</a></b>一位高管表示，随着Covid-19大流行消退，经济重新开放，该公司正在受益。该公司的季度报告证明了这一点。ADBE股价周五上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The maker of digital media and marketing software late Thursday reported fiscal second-quarter earnings that easily topped expectations. Adobe also guided above views for the current quarter.</p><p><blockquote>这家数字媒体和营销软件制造商周四晚些时候公布的第二财季收益轻松超出预期。Adobe还指导了本季度的上述观点。</blockquote></p><p> The San Jose, Calif.-based company earned an adjusted $3.03 a share on sales of $3.84 billion in the quarter ended June 4. On a year-over-year basis, Adobe earnings rose 24% while sales climbed 23%.</p><p><blockquote>这家总部位于加利福尼亚州圣何塞的公司在截至6月4日的季度销售额为38.4亿美元，调整后每股收益为3.03美元。与去年同期相比，Adobe盈利增长24%，销售额增长23%。</blockquote></p><p> For the current quarter, Adobe expects to earn an adjusted $3 a share, up 17%, on sales of $3.88 billion, up 20%.</p><p><blockquote>Adobe预计本季度调整后每股收益为3美元，增长17%，销售额为38.8亿美元，增长20%。</blockquote></p><p> <h2>ADBE Stock Rises After Earnings Report</h2> In morning trading on the stock market today, ADBE stock advanced 2.2%, near 563.35. Earlier in the session, ADBE stock notched a record high 570.</p><p><blockquote><h2>ADBE股价在收益报告后上涨</h2>今天股市早盘交易中，ADBE股价上涨2.2%，接近563.35点。盘中早些时候，ADBE股价创下570点的历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> \"All three of our businesses — Creative Cloud, Document Cloud and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EXP.AU\">Experience</a> Cloud — just killed it this quarter with excellent performance,\" Chief Financial Officer John Murphy told Investor's Business Daily. \"Content creation and customer experience engagement in personalized ways are resonating across all of our businesses. And it's really driving the momentum and acceleration in the business.\"</p><p><blockquote>“我们的三项业务——创意云、文档云和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EXP.AU\">经验</a>云——本季度刚刚以出色的表现击败了它，”首席财务官约翰·墨菲(John Murphy)告诉《投资者商业日报》。“以个性化方式进行内容创作和客户体验参与正在我们所有业务中引起共鸣。它确实推动了业务的发展势头和加速。”</blockquote></p><p> That momentum will continue in the company's seasonally weaker fiscal third quarter, Murphy said. The current quarter includes the summer months of June, July and August.</p><p><blockquote>墨菲表示，这种势头将在该公司季节性疲软的第三财季持续下去。本季度包括夏季的六月、七月和八月。</blockquote></p><p> \"The macroeconomic stability is giving a lot of enterprises confidence to invest again,\" Murphy said. \"Companies are prioritizing digital transformation.\"</p><p><blockquote>墨菲表示：“宏观经济稳定给了很多企业再次投资的信心。”“企业正在优先考虑数字化转型。”</blockquote></p><p> The reopening of the economy and return to offices after the pandemic should provide a tailwind for Adobe's business, he said.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，疫情过后经济的重新开放和重返办公室应该会为Adobe的业务提供推动力。</blockquote></p><p> <h2>Analysts Raise Price Targets On Adobe Stock</h2> At least 15 Wall Street analysts raised their price targets on ADBE stock after the earnings report.</p><p><blockquote><h2>分析师提高Adobe股票的目标价</h2>财报发布后，至少15名华尔街分析师上调了ADBE股票的目标价。</blockquote></p><p> Mizuho Securities analyst Gregg Moskowitz reiterated his buy rating on ADBE stock and upped his price target to 640 from 600.</p><p><blockquote>瑞穗证券分析师Gregg Moskowitz重申了对ADBE股票的买入评级，并将目标价从600点上调至640点。</blockquote></p><p> \"Adobe's expansive portfolio of software solutions has made it the gold standard in content creation, consumption, and collaboration,\" Moskowitz said in a note to clients. \"Adobe is very well positioned to benefit from digital transformation with its comprehensive end-to-end offering that differentiates it from competitors.\"</p><p><blockquote>莫斯科维茨在给客户的一份报告中表示：“Adobe广泛的软件解决方案组合使其成为内容创建、消费和协作的黄金标准。”“Adobe凭借其全面的端到端产品使其与竞争对手区分开来，处于有利地位，可以从数字化转型中受益。”</blockquote></p><p> On June 11, ADBE stock broke out of a 40-week&nbsp;consolidation period&nbsp;at a&nbsp;buy point&nbsp;of 536.98, according to&nbsp;IBD MarketSmith charts.</p><p><blockquote>根据IBD MarketSmith图表，6月11日，ADBE股票突破了40周的盘整期，买入点为536.98。</blockquote></p><p> However, IBD Leaderboard analysis offered investors an earlier buy point of 525.54 from a cup base within the larger consolidation pattern.</p><p><blockquote>然而，IBD排行榜分析为投资者提供了较大盘整格局中杯基的早期买入点525.54。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ADBE":"Adobe"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2144774740","content_text":"Software giant Adobe is benefiting as the economy reopens as the Covid-19 pandemic wanes, a senior executive says. The company's beat-and-raise quarterly report provided proof of that. ADBE stock jumped on Friday.\nThe maker of digital media and marketing software late Thursday reported fiscal second-quarter earnings that easily topped expectations. Adobe also guided above views for the current quarter.\nThe San Jose, Calif.-based company earned an adjusted $3.03 a share on sales of $3.84 billion in the quarter ended June 4. On a year-over-year basis, Adobe earnings rose 24% while sales climbed 23%.\nFor the current quarter, Adobe expects to earn an adjusted $3 a share, up 17%, on sales of $3.88 billion, up 20%.\nADBE Stock Rises After Earnings Report\nIn morning trading on the stock market today, ADBE stock advanced 2.2%, near 563.35. Earlier in the session, ADBE stock notched a record high 570.\n\"All three of our businesses — Creative Cloud, Document Cloud and Experience Cloud — just killed it this quarter with excellent performance,\" Chief Financial Officer John Murphy told Investor's Business Daily. \"Content creation and customer experience engagement in personalized ways are resonating across all of our businesses. And it's really driving the momentum and acceleration in the business.\"\nThat momentum will continue in the company's seasonally weaker fiscal third quarter, Murphy said. The current quarter includes the summer months of June, July and August.\n\"The macroeconomic stability is giving a lot of enterprises confidence to invest again,\" Murphy said. \"Companies are prioritizing digital transformation.\"\nThe reopening of the economy and return to offices after the pandemic should provide a tailwind for Adobe's business, he said.\nAnalysts Raise Price Targets On Adobe Stock\nAt least 15 Wall Street analysts raised their price targets on ADBE stock after the earnings report.\nMizuho Securities analyst Gregg Moskowitz reiterated his buy rating on ADBE stock and upped his price target to 640 from 600.\n\"Adobe's expansive portfolio of software solutions has made it the gold standard in content creation, consumption, and collaboration,\" Moskowitz said in a note to clients. \"Adobe is very well positioned to benefit from digital transformation with its comprehensive end-to-end offering that differentiates it from competitors.\"\nOn June 11, ADBE stock broke out of a 40-week consolidation period at a buy point of 536.98, according to IBD MarketSmith charts.\nHowever, IBD Leaderboard analysis offered investors an earlier buy point of 525.54 from a cup base within the larger consolidation pattern.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ADBE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":851,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188969132,"gmtCreate":1623419546126,"gmtModify":1631890841919,"author":{"id":"3581856277356895","authorId":"3581856277356895","name":"AK91","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/591e829441c63580ff59ffaa06cbee53","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581856277356895","idStr":"3581856277356895"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tiger is here!","listText":"Tiger is here!","text":"Tiger is here!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188969132","repostId":"1156453091","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1156453091","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623333482,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1156453091?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-10 21:58","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"以史为鉴，美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156453091","media":"川阅全球宏观","summary":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：。1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。","content":"<p>美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。<b>美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。</b>我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：</p>\n<p><b>1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次</b>(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济基本面和美联储政策进行了复盘(表1)。</p>\n<p><b>1968/06-1971/09</b>：经济陷入衰退，但前期大幅政府开支与财政刺激的余温仍在，通胀持续上升，美联储在1970年收紧货币政策以抑制通胀。</p>\n<p><b>1973/03-1982/11：</b>粮食危机和石油危机的双重打击下，美国经济陷入滞胀，供给冲击与成本推升通胀。政府价格管制失败，货币政策缺乏独立性并且过于滞后，未能成功抑制通胀。</p>\n<p><b>1987/08-1991/07：</b>走出滞胀后，美国经济经历了高速增长，但1987年开始经济增速放缓，并出现工资和价格上涨压力，美联储收紧货币政策。</p>\n<p><b>2007/11-2008/09：</b>油价飙升推升通胀，金融危机爆发，美联储货币政策的首要任务在于救市，通胀不在其重点关注范围内。</p>\n<p><b>当前的通胀和1973-1982年通胀的成因较为相似，均为成本推动。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/327f6f12c3af30abee8fa0ae334f9763\" tg-width=\"1006\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ca353ebcbaf95ba1da0b46a815d5f8b\" tg-width=\"1025\" tg-height=\"853\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。</b>今年5月美国CPI录得5.0%(为2008年8月以来的最高水平)，但是<b>从CPI指数角度，2021年5月相对于2019年5月的复合增速仅为2.5%。</b></p>\n<p><b>对于今年通胀的演绎，我们重点关注二手车和房租两个分项。</b></p>\n<p><b>通胀的主要推力之一为二手车。</b>东南亚疫情恶化下多地芯片厂停工，芯片短缺导致车企减产。新车供应不足，二手车需求剧增，价格飙升(图2)。根据Manheim数据，2021年二手车售价增幅超越新车(图3)。此外，5月其他交通相关的价格涨幅进一步扩大，交通服务价格增幅从4月的5.6%扩大至11.2%，增幅翻倍。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884ed39a8682a3df05e8411f17f2105c\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/599b70f4fadb590d0d7b20254d4b1403\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"738\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。</b>美国CPI中房租的权重较高(约30%)，尽管相对于其它分项，房租的增速相对温和(今年5月同比增2.2%)，但年初以来增速斜率陡峭化(图4)，我们<b>预计受到供给短缺的影响，未来房租将会持续温和地上升</b>。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/869c4f313152d3a14769097f150fb674\" tg-width=\"1021\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>通胀预期走势如何?</b></p>\n<p>从消费者的角度，密西根预期通胀率数据显示，2<b>021年5月美国消费者5年通胀预期从上月的2.7%跳升至3.0%(图5)，但是仍然低于美联储可以容忍的3.5%。</b></p>\n<p>从政策制定者角度，如我们此前报告所述，美联储注重通胀预期的监测，关键指标为<b>共同通胀预期指数(CIE)，CIE为季度数据，预计2021年二季度的数据将于本月底公布。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21708bec0c792eb9299eda62ba3cd077\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>未来通胀将会怎样影响资产价格?</b></p>\n<p>我们复盘了上述四次大通胀中，CPI破4%后不同时间区间内美元、美股和美债收益率的变化(表2)：<b>通胀对于美元、美股存在负面影响，前者较为滞后，后者1个月内即有体现。</b>有趣的是，通胀对于美债收益率的影响不具规律性，关于美债的研究框架，请参考我们此前的报告。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/037d9e565ff952b13c942386e8d08506\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>风险提示：</b>美联储过快收紧货币政策，地缘政治风险加剧</p>\n<hr>\n<p>恭喜您找到了字母E，参与《老虎大搜查》活动，下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币，如集齐7张图片并留言，还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。（详情请点击<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 </a>了解）</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b519142d901e1ef1ff2a2e443798687b\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>","source":"lsy1582083733592","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>以史为鉴，美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n以史为鉴，美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-10 21:58 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html><strong>川阅全球宏观</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：\n1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c3dba7c4b0e443e40fe6df5639434d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156453091","content_text":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：\n1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济基本面和美联储政策进行了复盘(表1)。\n1968/06-1971/09：经济陷入衰退，但前期大幅政府开支与财政刺激的余温仍在，通胀持续上升，美联储在1970年收紧货币政策以抑制通胀。\n1973/03-1982/11：粮食危机和石油危机的双重打击下，美国经济陷入滞胀，供给冲击与成本推升通胀。政府价格管制失败，货币政策缺乏独立性并且过于滞后，未能成功抑制通胀。\n1987/08-1991/07：走出滞胀后，美国经济经历了高速增长，但1987年开始经济增速放缓，并出现工资和价格上涨压力，美联储收紧货币政策。\n2007/11-2008/09：油价飙升推升通胀，金融危机爆发，美联储货币政策的首要任务在于救市，通胀不在其重点关注范围内。\n当前的通胀和1973-1982年通胀的成因较为相似，均为成本推动。\n\n本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。今年5月美国CPI录得5.0%(为2008年8月以来的最高水平)，但是从CPI指数角度，2021年5月相对于2019年5月的复合增速仅为2.5%。\n对于今年通胀的演绎，我们重点关注二手车和房租两个分项。\n通胀的主要推力之一为二手车。东南亚疫情恶化下多地芯片厂停工，芯片短缺导致车企减产。新车供应不足，二手车需求剧增，价格飙升(图2)。根据Manheim数据，2021年二手车售价增幅超越新车(图3)。此外，5月其他交通相关的价格涨幅进一步扩大，交通服务价格增幅从4月的5.6%扩大至11.2%，增幅翻倍。\n\n房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。美国CPI中房租的权重较高(约30%)，尽管相对于其它分项，房租的增速相对温和(今年5月同比增2.2%)，但年初以来增速斜率陡峭化(图4)，我们预计受到供给短缺的影响，未来房租将会持续温和地上升。\n\n通胀预期走势如何?\n从消费者的角度，密西根预期通胀率数据显示，2021年5月美国消费者5年通胀预期从上月的2.7%跳升至3.0%(图5)，但是仍然低于美联储可以容忍的3.5%。\n从政策制定者角度，如我们此前报告所述，美联储注重通胀预期的监测，关键指标为共同通胀预期指数(CIE)，CIE为季度数据，预计2021年二季度的数据将于本月底公布。\n\n未来通胀将会怎样影响资产价格?\n我们复盘了上述四次大通胀中，CPI破4%后不同时间区间内美元、美股和美债收益率的变化(表2)：通胀对于美元、美股存在负面影响，前者较为滞后，后者1个月内即有体现。有趣的是，通胀对于美债收益率的影响不具规律性，关于美债的研究框架，请参考我们此前的报告。\n\n风险提示：美联储过快收紧货币政策，地缘政治风险加剧\n\n恭喜您找到了字母E，参与《老虎大搜查》活动，下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币，如集齐7张图片并留言，还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。（详情请点击【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 了解）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1009,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}