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Peaball

Peaball

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2021-05-24

Another global crisis?

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-04

Nice article

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-05-25

$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$poor performing as compared to others

2021-05-15

Great article

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-12

$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$Flattish

2021-05-23

As long as possible

Apple Stock: How Long Should You Hold It?<blockquote>苹果股票：你应该持有多久？</blockquote>

2021-06-11

Free share

2021-06-10

$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$Not moving

2021-06-09

Further up please

2021-06-08

Potential for more growth

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for more upwards growth","listText":"Room for more upwards growth","text":"Room for more upwards growth","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce459ef61af3588650c093dbee7e21a0","width":"1125","height":"3299"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/135486478","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":821,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":138002383,"gmtCreate":1621899819642,"gmtModify":1631885653879,"author":{"id":"3581852136286680","authorId":"3581852136286680","name":"Peaball","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ebc9fceefb91017a00835b783fa21c1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581852136286680","idStr":"3581852136286680"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ES3.SI\">$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$</a>poor performing as compared to others","listText":"<a 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crisis?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/131032912","repostId":"1118150139","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":747,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":133561445,"gmtCreate":1621770604887,"gmtModify":1634186674453,"author":{"id":"3581852136286680","authorId":"3581852136286680","name":"Peaball","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ebc9fceefb91017a00835b783fa21c1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581852136286680","idStr":"3581852136286680"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good share","listText":"Good share","text":"Good share","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/133561445","repostId":"2137901624","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":613,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":133561158,"gmtCreate":1621770551074,"gmtModify":1634186674817,"author":{"id":"3581852136286680","authorId":"3581852136286680","name":"Peaball","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ebc9fceefb91017a00835b783fa21c1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581852136286680","idStr":"3581852136286680"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"As long as possible","listText":"As long as possible","text":"As long as possible","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/133561158","repostId":"1197544614","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1197544614","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621600946,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1197544614?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-21 20:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock: How Long Should You Hold It?<blockquote>苹果股票：你应该持有多久？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197544614","media":"TheStreet","summary":"For best performance, how long should Apple stock be held in a portfolio? The Apple Maven discusses ","content":"<p>For best performance, how long should Apple stock be held in a portfolio? The Apple Maven discusses what traders, speculators and investors should expect when betting on AAPL.</p><p><blockquote>为了获得最佳表现，苹果股票应该在投资组合中持有多长时间？这位苹果专家讨论了交易员、投机者和投资者在押注AAPL时应该期待什么。</blockquote></p><p> The&nbsp;Street’s&nbsp;Jim Cramer has said it repeatedly: own Apple stock (ticker $AAPL), don’t trade it. Today, the Apple Maven revisits this idea to help determine how long one should hold Apple shares.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街的吉姆·克莱默(Jim Cramer)多次表示：拥有苹果股票（股票代码$AAPL），不要交易它。今天，这位苹果专家重新审视了这个想法，以帮助确定应该持有苹果股票多长时间。</blockquote></p><p> Below is an analysis of how much one might expect to gain if (1) day-trading, (2) speculating on, or (3) investing in Apple stock. Obviously, since the future is uncertain, the analysis is based on historical data – which I believe can at least provide a blueprint for future share price performance.</p><p><blockquote>以下是对(1)日内交易、(2)投机或(3)投资苹果股票的预期收益的分析。显然，由于未来不确定，分析是基于历史数据——我相信这至少可以为未来股价表现提供蓝图。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6726ed885cefb1c7f81fe0ac2f6eff7c\" tg-width=\"799\" tg-height=\"466\"><span>Figure 1: AAPL trading chart.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：AAPL交易图表。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>#1. AAPL investors: long-term winners</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#1.AAPL投资者：长期赢家</b></blockquote></p><p> As I mentioned&nbsp;in my recent “Apple Stock 101” article, investors that bought Apple shares in December 1980 (i.e. the IPO date) and held onto them until now realized impressive annualized gains of&nbsp;<b>19%</b>. Clearly, AAPL has been a good asset to “get and forget” over Apple’s tenure as a publicly-traded company.</p><p><blockquote>正如我在最近的“苹果股票101”文章中提到的，在1980年12月（即IPO日期）购买苹果股票并持有至今的投资者实现了令人印象深刻的年化收益<b>19%</b>显然，在苹果担任上市公司期间，AAPL一直是一笔值得“忘记”的好资产。</blockquote></p><p> But allow me to work with more realistic time frames. For this exercise, I will consider “investors” those who hold AAPL for one year. To be clear, many might consider twelve months a minimum investment horizon to qualify as long term.</p><p><blockquote>但是请允许我用更现实的时间框架来工作。在这个练习中，我将把持有AAPL一年的人视为“投资者”。需要明确的是，许多人可能认为12个月是符合长期投资资格的最低投资期限。</blockquote></p><p> Also, I am limiting my analysis to the past 20 years, since the stock used to be much riskier and more volatile in its first couple of decades of existence than it is now. Apple stock’s returns have been even better during this period that begins with the end of the dot-com correction:<b>35%</b>&nbsp;annualized.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我将我的分析限制在过去20年，因为该股票在其存在的头几十年里的风险和波动性都比现在高得多。在从互联网调整结束开始的这段时间里，苹果股票的回报甚至更好：<b>35%</b>年化。</blockquote></p><p> The chart below shows the distribution of&nbsp;<i>weekly returns</i>&nbsp;earned by an Apple stock investor, using the parameters described above, if the bet had been made on any give day since May 2001.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示了<i>每周回报</i>如果自2001年5月以来的任何一天下注，则由苹果股票投资者使用上述参数赚取。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d658a73af3c004123aa9e0d29906ebe7\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"418\"><span>Figure 2: AAPL investor's weekly return distribution.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：AAPL投资者的每周回报分布。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Key observation</b>: if held for one year, and based on historical observations alone (i.e. not on modeled projections for the future), Apple stock can arguably be expected to produce weekly returns of about +0.5% to +1.0%. Rarely has the stock been a big-time winner or loser – say, weekly returns of more than +2% or less than -1% on average – when the investment horizon is one year.</li> </ul> <b>#2. AAPL speculators: higher octane</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>关键观察</b>：如果持有一年，并且仅基于历史观察（即不是基于对未来的模型预测），苹果股票可以预期产生约+0.5%至+1.0%的周回报率。当投资期限为一年时，该股票很少成为大赢家或大输家（例如，平均每周回报率超过+2%或低于-1%）。</li></ul><b>#2.AAPL投机者：辛烷值更高</b></blockquote></p><p> Speculators have had a bit different experience from the above. Here, I characterize as “speculator” someone who buys AAPL and sells it ten weeks later, or roughly two and a half months after the purchase date.</p><p><blockquote>投机者的经历与上述略有不同。在这里，我将买入AAPL并在十周后（即购买日期后大约两个半月）卖出的人描述为“投机者”。</blockquote></p><p> See histogram below. For ease of comparison with the weekly return analysis immediately above, I kept the chart’s scale unchanged.</p><p><blockquote>参见下面的直方图。为了便于与上面的每周回报分析进行比较，我保持图表的比例不变。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/209f65d605439ca2f039619f15f5fc68\" tg-width=\"690\" tg-height=\"404\"><span>Figure 3: AAPL speculator's weekly return distribution.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图3：AAPL投机者的周回报分布。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Key observation</b>: the distribution above is still somewhat bell-shaped, meaning that a weekly return of between +0.5% and +1.0% is still quite common. However, notice the much “fatter tails”. The probability of larger weekly gains or losses tends to increase when Apple stock is held for ten weeks rather than one year.</li> </ul> <b>#3. AAPL day-traders: buckle up!</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>关键观察</b>：上面的分布仍然有点钟形，这意味着+0.5%到+1.0%之间的周回报率仍然很常见。然而，请注意“更胖的尾巴”。当苹果股票持有十周而不是一年时，每周收益或损失较大的概率往往会增加。</li></ul><b>#3.AAPL日内交易者：系好安全带！</b></blockquote></p><p> Lastly, day-traders that buy Apple stock and sell it within less than a full week have been playing a completely different game. Once again, the histogram below depicts the average<i>weekly return</i>in AAPL when the timeframe is compressed to no more than 7 days. The chart scale, again, remains unchanged for ease of comparison.</p><p><blockquote>最后，买入苹果股票并在不到一周的时间内卖出的日内交易者一直在玩一种完全不同的游戏。同样，下面的直方图描述了平均值<i>每周回报</i>在AAPL，当时间范围被压缩到不超过7天时。为了便于比较，图表比例保持不变。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f77febcce32d4bcc45cf275cc5936671\" tg-width=\"657\" tg-height=\"395\"><span>Figure 4: AAPL day traders's weekly return distribution.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图4：AAPL日内交易者的周回报分布。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Key observation</b>: when buying and selling AAPL in a matter of days, it is most common for the bets to result in much more sizable weekly gains or losses: less than -2.0% or more than +2.0%. Earning long-term average gains of about +0.5% to +1.0%, in these cases, has been a rarity.</li> </ul> <b>What to make of it all</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>关键观察</b>：当在几天内买卖AAPL时，最常见的情况是赌注会导致更大的每周收益或损失：小于-2.0%或大于+2.0%。在这些情况下，获得约+0.5%至+1.0%的长期平均收益是罕见的。</li></ul><b>如何理解这一切</b></blockquote></p><p> Back to the original question: how long should Apple stock be held? Based on historical analysis, the answer really depends on personal goals. Here is the roadmap:</p><p><blockquote>回到最初的问题：苹果股票应该持有多久？基于历史分析，答案确实取决于个人目标。以下是路线图：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>If merely seeking long-term capital appreciation that might be market-beating, but probably not by a very wide margin, buying AAPL and holding it for a year or more is highly advisable. Speculative bets of a few weeks here and there (say, selling into strength and buying into weakness based on price action) could help to boost returns, if the trades are well executed.</li>  <li>If seeking outsized gains, trading AAPL within days would be the best approach. However, this strategy is also the riskiest, as it could lead to outsized losses instead. I believe that day-trading Apple stock is the least advisable approach to most people, but possibly an interesting proposition for a select few.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>如果只是寻求可能跑赢市场的长期资本增值，但幅度可能不会很大，那么购买AAPL并持有一年或更长时间是非常明智的。如果交易执行良好，在这里或那里进行几周的投机性押注（例如，根据价格走势在强势时卖出，在弱势时买入）可能有助于提高回报。</li><li>如果寻求巨额收益，在几天内交易AAPL将是最好的方法。然而，这种策略也是风险最大的，因为它可能会导致巨大的损失。我相信日内交易苹果股票对大多数人来说是最不可取的方法，但对少数人来说可能是一个有趣的提议。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock: How Long Should You Hold It?<blockquote>苹果股票：你应该持有多久？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock: How Long Should You Hold It?<blockquote>苹果股票：你应该持有多久？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-21 20:42</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>For best performance, how long should Apple stock be held in a portfolio? The Apple Maven discusses what traders, speculators and investors should expect when betting on AAPL.</p><p><blockquote>为了获得最佳表现，苹果股票应该在投资组合中持有多长时间？这位苹果专家讨论了交易员、投机者和投资者在押注AAPL时应该期待什么。</blockquote></p><p> The&nbsp;Street’s&nbsp;Jim Cramer has said it repeatedly: own Apple stock (ticker $AAPL), don’t trade it. Today, the Apple Maven revisits this idea to help determine how long one should hold Apple shares.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街的吉姆·克莱默(Jim Cramer)多次表示：拥有苹果股票（股票代码$AAPL），不要交易它。今天，这位苹果专家重新审视了这个想法，以帮助确定应该持有苹果股票多长时间。</blockquote></p><p> Below is an analysis of how much one might expect to gain if (1) day-trading, (2) speculating on, or (3) investing in Apple stock. Obviously, since the future is uncertain, the analysis is based on historical data – which I believe can at least provide a blueprint for future share price performance.</p><p><blockquote>以下是对(1)日内交易、(2)投机或(3)投资苹果股票的预期收益的分析。显然，由于未来不确定，分析是基于历史数据——我相信这至少可以为未来股价表现提供蓝图。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6726ed885cefb1c7f81fe0ac2f6eff7c\" tg-width=\"799\" tg-height=\"466\"><span>Figure 1: AAPL trading chart.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：AAPL交易图表。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>#1. AAPL investors: long-term winners</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#1.AAPL投资者：长期赢家</b></blockquote></p><p> As I mentioned&nbsp;in my recent “Apple Stock 101” article, investors that bought Apple shares in December 1980 (i.e. the IPO date) and held onto them until now realized impressive annualized gains of&nbsp;<b>19%</b>. Clearly, AAPL has been a good asset to “get and forget” over Apple’s tenure as a publicly-traded company.</p><p><blockquote>正如我在最近的“苹果股票101”文章中提到的，在1980年12月（即IPO日期）购买苹果股票并持有至今的投资者实现了令人印象深刻的年化收益<b>19%</b>显然，在苹果担任上市公司期间，AAPL一直是一笔值得“忘记”的好资产。</blockquote></p><p> But allow me to work with more realistic time frames. For this exercise, I will consider “investors” those who hold AAPL for one year. To be clear, many might consider twelve months a minimum investment horizon to qualify as long term.</p><p><blockquote>但是请允许我用更现实的时间框架来工作。在这个练习中，我将把持有AAPL一年的人视为“投资者”。需要明确的是，许多人可能认为12个月是符合长期投资资格的最低投资期限。</blockquote></p><p> Also, I am limiting my analysis to the past 20 years, since the stock used to be much riskier and more volatile in its first couple of decades of existence than it is now. Apple stock’s returns have been even better during this period that begins with the end of the dot-com correction:<b>35%</b>&nbsp;annualized.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我将我的分析限制在过去20年，因为该股票在其存在的头几十年里的风险和波动性都比现在高得多。在从互联网调整结束开始的这段时间里，苹果股票的回报甚至更好：<b>35%</b>年化。</blockquote></p><p> The chart below shows the distribution of&nbsp;<i>weekly returns</i>&nbsp;earned by an Apple stock investor, using the parameters described above, if the bet had been made on any give day since May 2001.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示了<i>每周回报</i>如果自2001年5月以来的任何一天下注，则由苹果股票投资者使用上述参数赚取。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d658a73af3c004123aa9e0d29906ebe7\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"418\"><span>Figure 2: AAPL investor's weekly return distribution.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：AAPL投资者的每周回报分布。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Key observation</b>: if held for one year, and based on historical observations alone (i.e. not on modeled projections for the future), Apple stock can arguably be expected to produce weekly returns of about +0.5% to +1.0%. Rarely has the stock been a big-time winner or loser – say, weekly returns of more than +2% or less than -1% on average – when the investment horizon is one year.</li> </ul> <b>#2. AAPL speculators: higher octane</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>关键观察</b>：如果持有一年，并且仅基于历史观察（即不是基于对未来的模型预测），苹果股票可以预期产生约+0.5%至+1.0%的周回报率。当投资期限为一年时，该股票很少成为大赢家或大输家（例如，平均每周回报率超过+2%或低于-1%）。</li></ul><b>#2.AAPL投机者：辛烷值更高</b></blockquote></p><p> Speculators have had a bit different experience from the above. Here, I characterize as “speculator” someone who buys AAPL and sells it ten weeks later, or roughly two and a half months after the purchase date.</p><p><blockquote>投机者的经历与上述略有不同。在这里，我将买入AAPL并在十周后（即购买日期后大约两个半月）卖出的人描述为“投机者”。</blockquote></p><p> See histogram below. For ease of comparison with the weekly return analysis immediately above, I kept the chart’s scale unchanged.</p><p><blockquote>参见下面的直方图。为了便于与上面的每周回报分析进行比较，我保持图表的比例不变。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/209f65d605439ca2f039619f15f5fc68\" tg-width=\"690\" tg-height=\"404\"><span>Figure 3: AAPL speculator's weekly return distribution.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图3：AAPL投机者的周回报分布。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Key observation</b>: the distribution above is still somewhat bell-shaped, meaning that a weekly return of between +0.5% and +1.0% is still quite common. However, notice the much “fatter tails”. The probability of larger weekly gains or losses tends to increase when Apple stock is held for ten weeks rather than one year.</li> </ul> <b>#3. AAPL day-traders: buckle up!</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>关键观察</b>：上面的分布仍然有点钟形，这意味着+0.5%到+1.0%之间的周回报率仍然很常见。然而，请注意“更胖的尾巴”。当苹果股票持有十周而不是一年时，每周收益或损失较大的概率往往会增加。</li></ul><b>#3.AAPL日内交易者：系好安全带！</b></blockquote></p><p> Lastly, day-traders that buy Apple stock and sell it within less than a full week have been playing a completely different game. Once again, the histogram below depicts the average<i>weekly return</i>in AAPL when the timeframe is compressed to no more than 7 days. The chart scale, again, remains unchanged for ease of comparison.</p><p><blockquote>最后，买入苹果股票并在不到一周的时间内卖出的日内交易者一直在玩一种完全不同的游戏。同样，下面的直方图描述了平均值<i>每周回报</i>在AAPL，当时间范围被压缩到不超过7天时。为了便于比较，图表比例保持不变。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f77febcce32d4bcc45cf275cc5936671\" tg-width=\"657\" tg-height=\"395\"><span>Figure 4: AAPL day traders's weekly return distribution.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图4：AAPL日内交易者的周回报分布。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Key observation</b>: when buying and selling AAPL in a matter of days, it is most common for the bets to result in much more sizable weekly gains or losses: less than -2.0% or more than +2.0%. Earning long-term average gains of about +0.5% to +1.0%, in these cases, has been a rarity.</li> </ul> <b>What to make of it all</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>关键观察</b>：当在几天内买卖AAPL时，最常见的情况是赌注会导致更大的每周收益或损失：小于-2.0%或大于+2.0%。在这些情况下，获得约+0.5%至+1.0%的长期平均收益是罕见的。</li></ul><b>如何理解这一切</b></blockquote></p><p> Back to the original question: how long should Apple stock be held? Based on historical analysis, the answer really depends on personal goals. Here is the roadmap:</p><p><blockquote>回到最初的问题：苹果股票应该持有多久？基于历史分析，答案确实取决于个人目标。以下是路线图：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>If merely seeking long-term capital appreciation that might be market-beating, but probably not by a very wide margin, buying AAPL and holding it for a year or more is highly advisable. Speculative bets of a few weeks here and there (say, selling into strength and buying into weakness based on price action) could help to boost returns, if the trades are well executed.</li>  <li>If seeking outsized gains, trading AAPL within days would be the best approach. However, this strategy is also the riskiest, as it could lead to outsized losses instead. I believe that day-trading Apple stock is the least advisable approach to most people, but possibly an interesting proposition for a select few.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>如果只是寻求可能跑赢市场的长期资本增值，但幅度可能不会很大，那么购买AAPL并持有一年或更长时间是非常明智的。如果交易执行良好，在这里或那里进行几周的投机性押注（例如，根据价格走势在强势时卖出，在弱势时买入）可能有助于提高回报。</li><li>如果寻求巨额收益，在几天内交易AAPL将是最好的方法。然而，这种策略也是风险最大的，因为它可能会导致巨大的损失。我相信日内交易苹果股票对大多数人来说是最不可取的方法，但对少数人来说可能是一个有趣的提议。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-how-long-should-you-hold-it\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-how-long-should-you-hold-it","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1197544614","content_text":"For best performance, how long should Apple stock be held in a portfolio? The Apple Maven discusses what traders, speculators and investors should expect when betting on AAPL.\nThe Street’s Jim Cramer has said it repeatedly: own Apple stock (ticker $AAPL), don’t trade it. Today, the Apple Maven revisits this idea to help determine how long one should hold Apple shares.\nBelow is an analysis of how much one might expect to gain if (1) day-trading, (2) speculating on, or (3) investing in Apple stock. Obviously, since the future is uncertain, the analysis is based on historical data – which I believe can at least provide a blueprint for future share price performance.\nFigure 1: AAPL trading chart.\n#1. AAPL investors: long-term winners\nAs I mentioned in my recent “Apple Stock 101” article, investors that bought Apple shares in December 1980 (i.e. the IPO date) and held onto them until now realized impressive annualized gains of 19%. Clearly, AAPL has been a good asset to “get and forget” over Apple’s tenure as a publicly-traded company.\nBut allow me to work with more realistic time frames. For this exercise, I will consider “investors” those who hold AAPL for one year. To be clear, many might consider twelve months a minimum investment horizon to qualify as long term.\nAlso, I am limiting my analysis to the past 20 years, since the stock used to be much riskier and more volatile in its first couple of decades of existence than it is now. Apple stock’s returns have been even better during this period that begins with the end of the dot-com correction:35% annualized.\nThe chart below shows the distribution of weekly returns earned by an Apple stock investor, using the parameters described above, if the bet had been made on any give day since May 2001.\nFigure 2: AAPL investor's weekly return distribution.\n\nKey observation: if held for one year, and based on historical observations alone (i.e. not on modeled projections for the future), Apple stock can arguably be expected to produce weekly returns of about +0.5% to +1.0%. Rarely has the stock been a big-time winner or loser – say, weekly returns of more than +2% or less than -1% on average – when the investment horizon is one year.\n\n#2. AAPL speculators: higher octane\nSpeculators have had a bit different experience from the above. Here, I characterize as “speculator” someone who buys AAPL and sells it ten weeks later, or roughly two and a half months after the purchase date.\nSee histogram below. For ease of comparison with the weekly return analysis immediately above, I kept the chart’s scale unchanged.\nFigure 3: AAPL speculator's weekly return distribution.\n\nKey observation: the distribution above is still somewhat bell-shaped, meaning that a weekly return of between +0.5% and +1.0% is still quite common. However, notice the much “fatter tails”. The probability of larger weekly gains or losses tends to increase when Apple stock is held for ten weeks rather than one year.\n\n#3. AAPL day-traders: buckle up!\nLastly, day-traders that buy Apple stock and sell it within less than a full week have been playing a completely different game. Once again, the histogram below depicts the averageweekly returnin AAPL when the timeframe is compressed to no more than 7 days. The chart scale, again, remains unchanged for ease of comparison.\nFigure 4: AAPL day traders's weekly return distribution.\n\nKey observation: when buying and selling AAPL in a matter of days, it is most common for the bets to result in much more sizable weekly gains or losses: less than -2.0% or more than +2.0%. Earning long-term average gains of about +0.5% to +1.0%, in these cases, has been a rarity.\n\nWhat to make of it all\nBack to the original question: how long should Apple stock be held? Based on historical analysis, the answer really depends on personal goals. Here is the roadmap:\n\nIf merely seeking long-term capital appreciation that might be market-beating, but probably not by a very wide margin, buying AAPL and holding it for a year or more is highly advisable. Speculative bets of a few weeks here and there (say, selling into strength and buying into weakness based on price action) could help to boost returns, if the trades are well executed.\nIf seeking outsized gains, trading AAPL within days would be the best approach. However, this strategy is also the riskiest, as it could lead to outsized losses instead. I believe that day-trading Apple stock is the least advisable approach to most people, but possibly an interesting proposition for a select few.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":528,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":196409453,"gmtCreate":1621084756572,"gmtModify":1634194095961,"author":{"id":"3581852136286680","authorId":"3581852136286680","name":"Peaball","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ebc9fceefb91017a00835b783fa21c1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581852136286680","idStr":"3581852136286680"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great article","listText":"Great article","text":"Great 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up","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c36428e64918265b549fa6da0db35fab","width":"1125","height":"3037"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/107086719","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":908,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":104073711,"gmtCreate":1620347616633,"gmtModify":1634205921523,"author":{"id":"3581852136286680","authorId":"3581852136286680","name":"Peaball","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ebc9fceefb91017a00835b783fa21c1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581852136286680","idStr":"3581852136286680"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Will it drop more","listText":"Will it drop more","text":"Will it drop 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crisis?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/131032912","repostId":"1118150139","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":747,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":116909920,"gmtCreate":1622768226460,"gmtModify":1634098238965,"author":{"id":"3581852136286680","authorId":"3581852136286680","name":"Peaball","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ebc9fceefb91017a00835b783fa21c1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581852136286680","idStr":"3581852136286680"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice article","listText":"Nice article","text":"Nice article","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/116909920","repostId":"1182667134","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2606,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":138002383,"gmtCreate":1621899819642,"gmtModify":1631885653879,"author":{"id":"3581852136286680","authorId":"3581852136286680","name":"Peaball","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ebc9fceefb91017a00835b783fa21c1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581852136286680","idStr":"3581852136286680"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ES3.SI\">$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$</a>poor performing as compared to others","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ES3.SI\">$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$</a>poor performing as compared to others","text":"$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$poor performing as compared to others","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/872d4b5ef8d74624dcee0e1f07be24e3","width":"1125","height":"1949"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/138002383","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":547,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":196409453,"gmtCreate":1621084756572,"gmtModify":1634194095961,"author":{"id":"3581852136286680","authorId":"3581852136286680","name":"Peaball","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ebc9fceefb91017a00835b783fa21c1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581852136286680","idStr":"3581852136286680"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great article","listText":"Great article","text":"Great article","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/196409453","repostId":"2135069756","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":480,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188502867,"gmtCreate":1623453374659,"gmtModify":1631885653531,"author":{"id":"3581852136286680","authorId":"3581852136286680","name":"Peaball","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ebc9fceefb91017a00835b783fa21c1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581852136286680","idStr":"3581852136286680"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ES3.SI\">$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$</a>Flattish","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ES3.SI\">$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$</a>Flattish","text":"$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$Flattish","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06368938412b3cea79f51a919350192c","width":"1125","height":"1949"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188502867","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1914,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":133561158,"gmtCreate":1621770551074,"gmtModify":1634186674817,"author":{"id":"3581852136286680","authorId":"3581852136286680","name":"Peaball","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ebc9fceefb91017a00835b783fa21c1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581852136286680","idStr":"3581852136286680"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"As long as possible","listText":"As long as possible","text":"As long as possible","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/133561158","repostId":"1197544614","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1197544614","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621600946,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1197544614?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-21 20:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock: How Long Should You Hold It?<blockquote>苹果股票：你应该持有多久？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197544614","media":"TheStreet","summary":"For best performance, how long should Apple stock be held in a portfolio? The Apple Maven discusses ","content":"<p>For best performance, how long should Apple stock be held in a portfolio? The Apple Maven discusses what traders, speculators and investors should expect when betting on AAPL.</p><p><blockquote>为了获得最佳表现，苹果股票应该在投资组合中持有多长时间？这位苹果专家讨论了交易员、投机者和投资者在押注AAPL时应该期待什么。</blockquote></p><p> The&nbsp;Street’s&nbsp;Jim Cramer has said it repeatedly: own Apple stock (ticker $AAPL), don’t trade it. Today, the Apple Maven revisits this idea to help determine how long one should hold Apple shares.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街的吉姆·克莱默(Jim Cramer)多次表示：拥有苹果股票（股票代码$AAPL），不要交易它。今天，这位苹果专家重新审视了这个想法，以帮助确定应该持有苹果股票多长时间。</blockquote></p><p> Below is an analysis of how much one might expect to gain if (1) day-trading, (2) speculating on, or (3) investing in Apple stock. Obviously, since the future is uncertain, the analysis is based on historical data – which I believe can at least provide a blueprint for future share price performance.</p><p><blockquote>以下是对(1)日内交易、(2)投机或(3)投资苹果股票的预期收益的分析。显然，由于未来不确定，分析是基于历史数据——我相信这至少可以为未来股价表现提供蓝图。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6726ed885cefb1c7f81fe0ac2f6eff7c\" tg-width=\"799\" tg-height=\"466\"><span>Figure 1: AAPL trading chart.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：AAPL交易图表。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>#1. AAPL investors: long-term winners</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#1.AAPL投资者：长期赢家</b></blockquote></p><p> As I mentioned&nbsp;in my recent “Apple Stock 101” article, investors that bought Apple shares in December 1980 (i.e. the IPO date) and held onto them until now realized impressive annualized gains of&nbsp;<b>19%</b>. Clearly, AAPL has been a good asset to “get and forget” over Apple’s tenure as a publicly-traded company.</p><p><blockquote>正如我在最近的“苹果股票101”文章中提到的，在1980年12月（即IPO日期）购买苹果股票并持有至今的投资者实现了令人印象深刻的年化收益<b>19%</b>显然，在苹果担任上市公司期间，AAPL一直是一笔值得“忘记”的好资产。</blockquote></p><p> But allow me to work with more realistic time frames. For this exercise, I will consider “investors” those who hold AAPL for one year. To be clear, many might consider twelve months a minimum investment horizon to qualify as long term.</p><p><blockquote>但是请允许我用更现实的时间框架来工作。在这个练习中，我将把持有AAPL一年的人视为“投资者”。需要明确的是，许多人可能认为12个月是符合长期投资资格的最低投资期限。</blockquote></p><p> Also, I am limiting my analysis to the past 20 years, since the stock used to be much riskier and more volatile in its first couple of decades of existence than it is now. Apple stock’s returns have been even better during this period that begins with the end of the dot-com correction:<b>35%</b>&nbsp;annualized.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我将我的分析限制在过去20年，因为该股票在其存在的头几十年里的风险和波动性都比现在高得多。在从互联网调整结束开始的这段时间里，苹果股票的回报甚至更好：<b>35%</b>年化。</blockquote></p><p> The chart below shows the distribution of&nbsp;<i>weekly returns</i>&nbsp;earned by an Apple stock investor, using the parameters described above, if the bet had been made on any give day since May 2001.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示了<i>每周回报</i>如果自2001年5月以来的任何一天下注，则由苹果股票投资者使用上述参数赚取。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d658a73af3c004123aa9e0d29906ebe7\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"418\"><span>Figure 2: AAPL investor's weekly return distribution.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：AAPL投资者的每周回报分布。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Key observation</b>: if held for one year, and based on historical observations alone (i.e. not on modeled projections for the future), Apple stock can arguably be expected to produce weekly returns of about +0.5% to +1.0%. Rarely has the stock been a big-time winner or loser – say, weekly returns of more than +2% or less than -1% on average – when the investment horizon is one year.</li> </ul> <b>#2. AAPL speculators: higher octane</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>关键观察</b>：如果持有一年，并且仅基于历史观察（即不是基于对未来的模型预测），苹果股票可以预期产生约+0.5%至+1.0%的周回报率。当投资期限为一年时，该股票很少成为大赢家或大输家（例如，平均每周回报率超过+2%或低于-1%）。</li></ul><b>#2.AAPL投机者：辛烷值更高</b></blockquote></p><p> Speculators have had a bit different experience from the above. Here, I characterize as “speculator” someone who buys AAPL and sells it ten weeks later, or roughly two and a half months after the purchase date.</p><p><blockquote>投机者的经历与上述略有不同。在这里，我将买入AAPL并在十周后（即购买日期后大约两个半月）卖出的人描述为“投机者”。</blockquote></p><p> See histogram below. For ease of comparison with the weekly return analysis immediately above, I kept the chart’s scale unchanged.</p><p><blockquote>参见下面的直方图。为了便于与上面的每周回报分析进行比较，我保持图表的比例不变。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/209f65d605439ca2f039619f15f5fc68\" tg-width=\"690\" tg-height=\"404\"><span>Figure 3: AAPL speculator's weekly return distribution.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图3：AAPL投机者的周回报分布。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Key observation</b>: the distribution above is still somewhat bell-shaped, meaning that a weekly return of between +0.5% and +1.0% is still quite common. However, notice the much “fatter tails”. The probability of larger weekly gains or losses tends to increase when Apple stock is held for ten weeks rather than one year.</li> </ul> <b>#3. AAPL day-traders: buckle up!</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>关键观察</b>：上面的分布仍然有点钟形，这意味着+0.5%到+1.0%之间的周回报率仍然很常见。然而，请注意“更胖的尾巴”。当苹果股票持有十周而不是一年时，每周收益或损失较大的概率往往会增加。</li></ul><b>#3.AAPL日内交易者：系好安全带！</b></blockquote></p><p> Lastly, day-traders that buy Apple stock and sell it within less than a full week have been playing a completely different game. Once again, the histogram below depicts the average<i>weekly return</i>in AAPL when the timeframe is compressed to no more than 7 days. The chart scale, again, remains unchanged for ease of comparison.</p><p><blockquote>最后，买入苹果股票并在不到一周的时间内卖出的日内交易者一直在玩一种完全不同的游戏。同样，下面的直方图描述了平均值<i>每周回报</i>在AAPL，当时间范围被压缩到不超过7天时。为了便于比较，图表比例保持不变。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f77febcce32d4bcc45cf275cc5936671\" tg-width=\"657\" tg-height=\"395\"><span>Figure 4: AAPL day traders's weekly return distribution.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图4：AAPL日内交易者的周回报分布。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Key observation</b>: when buying and selling AAPL in a matter of days, it is most common for the bets to result in much more sizable weekly gains or losses: less than -2.0% or more than +2.0%. Earning long-term average gains of about +0.5% to +1.0%, in these cases, has been a rarity.</li> </ul> <b>What to make of it all</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>关键观察</b>：当在几天内买卖AAPL时，最常见的情况是赌注会导致更大的每周收益或损失：小于-2.0%或大于+2.0%。在这些情况下，获得约+0.5%至+1.0%的长期平均收益是罕见的。</li></ul><b>如何理解这一切</b></blockquote></p><p> Back to the original question: how long should Apple stock be held? Based on historical analysis, the answer really depends on personal goals. Here is the roadmap:</p><p><blockquote>回到最初的问题：苹果股票应该持有多久？基于历史分析，答案确实取决于个人目标。以下是路线图：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>If merely seeking long-term capital appreciation that might be market-beating, but probably not by a very wide margin, buying AAPL and holding it for a year or more is highly advisable. Speculative bets of a few weeks here and there (say, selling into strength and buying into weakness based on price action) could help to boost returns, if the trades are well executed.</li>  <li>If seeking outsized gains, trading AAPL within days would be the best approach. However, this strategy is also the riskiest, as it could lead to outsized losses instead. I believe that day-trading Apple stock is the least advisable approach to most people, but possibly an interesting proposition for a select few.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>如果只是寻求可能跑赢市场的长期资本增值，但幅度可能不会很大，那么购买AAPL并持有一年或更长时间是非常明智的。如果交易执行良好，在这里或那里进行几周的投机性押注（例如，根据价格走势在强势时卖出，在弱势时买入）可能有助于提高回报。</li><li>如果寻求巨额收益，在几天内交易AAPL将是最好的方法。然而，这种策略也是风险最大的，因为它可能会导致巨大的损失。我相信日内交易苹果股票对大多数人来说是最不可取的方法，但对少数人来说可能是一个有趣的提议。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock: How Long Should You Hold It?<blockquote>苹果股票：你应该持有多久？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock: How Long Should You Hold It?<blockquote>苹果股票：你应该持有多久？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-21 20:42</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>For best performance, how long should Apple stock be held in a portfolio? The Apple Maven discusses what traders, speculators and investors should expect when betting on AAPL.</p><p><blockquote>为了获得最佳表现，苹果股票应该在投资组合中持有多长时间？这位苹果专家讨论了交易员、投机者和投资者在押注AAPL时应该期待什么。</blockquote></p><p> The&nbsp;Street’s&nbsp;Jim Cramer has said it repeatedly: own Apple stock (ticker $AAPL), don’t trade it. Today, the Apple Maven revisits this idea to help determine how long one should hold Apple shares.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街的吉姆·克莱默(Jim Cramer)多次表示：拥有苹果股票（股票代码$AAPL），不要交易它。今天，这位苹果专家重新审视了这个想法，以帮助确定应该持有苹果股票多长时间。</blockquote></p><p> Below is an analysis of how much one might expect to gain if (1) day-trading, (2) speculating on, or (3) investing in Apple stock. Obviously, since the future is uncertain, the analysis is based on historical data – which I believe can at least provide a blueprint for future share price performance.</p><p><blockquote>以下是对(1)日内交易、(2)投机或(3)投资苹果股票的预期收益的分析。显然，由于未来不确定，分析是基于历史数据——我相信这至少可以为未来股价表现提供蓝图。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6726ed885cefb1c7f81fe0ac2f6eff7c\" tg-width=\"799\" tg-height=\"466\"><span>Figure 1: AAPL trading chart.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：AAPL交易图表。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>#1. AAPL investors: long-term winners</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#1.AAPL投资者：长期赢家</b></blockquote></p><p> As I mentioned&nbsp;in my recent “Apple Stock 101” article, investors that bought Apple shares in December 1980 (i.e. the IPO date) and held onto them until now realized impressive annualized gains of&nbsp;<b>19%</b>. Clearly, AAPL has been a good asset to “get and forget” over Apple’s tenure as a publicly-traded company.</p><p><blockquote>正如我在最近的“苹果股票101”文章中提到的，在1980年12月（即IPO日期）购买苹果股票并持有至今的投资者实现了令人印象深刻的年化收益<b>19%</b>显然，在苹果担任上市公司期间，AAPL一直是一笔值得“忘记”的好资产。</blockquote></p><p> But allow me to work with more realistic time frames. For this exercise, I will consider “investors” those who hold AAPL for one year. To be clear, many might consider twelve months a minimum investment horizon to qualify as long term.</p><p><blockquote>但是请允许我用更现实的时间框架来工作。在这个练习中，我将把持有AAPL一年的人视为“投资者”。需要明确的是，许多人可能认为12个月是符合长期投资资格的最低投资期限。</blockquote></p><p> Also, I am limiting my analysis to the past 20 years, since the stock used to be much riskier and more volatile in its first couple of decades of existence than it is now. Apple stock’s returns have been even better during this period that begins with the end of the dot-com correction:<b>35%</b>&nbsp;annualized.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我将我的分析限制在过去20年，因为该股票在其存在的头几十年里的风险和波动性都比现在高得多。在从互联网调整结束开始的这段时间里，苹果股票的回报甚至更好：<b>35%</b>年化。</blockquote></p><p> The chart below shows the distribution of&nbsp;<i>weekly returns</i>&nbsp;earned by an Apple stock investor, using the parameters described above, if the bet had been made on any give day since May 2001.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示了<i>每周回报</i>如果自2001年5月以来的任何一天下注，则由苹果股票投资者使用上述参数赚取。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d658a73af3c004123aa9e0d29906ebe7\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"418\"><span>Figure 2: AAPL investor's weekly return distribution.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：AAPL投资者的每周回报分布。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Key observation</b>: if held for one year, and based on historical observations alone (i.e. not on modeled projections for the future), Apple stock can arguably be expected to produce weekly returns of about +0.5% to +1.0%. Rarely has the stock been a big-time winner or loser – say, weekly returns of more than +2% or less than -1% on average – when the investment horizon is one year.</li> </ul> <b>#2. AAPL speculators: higher octane</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>关键观察</b>：如果持有一年，并且仅基于历史观察（即不是基于对未来的模型预测），苹果股票可以预期产生约+0.5%至+1.0%的周回报率。当投资期限为一年时，该股票很少成为大赢家或大输家（例如，平均每周回报率超过+2%或低于-1%）。</li></ul><b>#2.AAPL投机者：辛烷值更高</b></blockquote></p><p> Speculators have had a bit different experience from the above. Here, I characterize as “speculator” someone who buys AAPL and sells it ten weeks later, or roughly two and a half months after the purchase date.</p><p><blockquote>投机者的经历与上述略有不同。在这里，我将买入AAPL并在十周后（即购买日期后大约两个半月）卖出的人描述为“投机者”。</blockquote></p><p> See histogram below. For ease of comparison with the weekly return analysis immediately above, I kept the chart’s scale unchanged.</p><p><blockquote>参见下面的直方图。为了便于与上面的每周回报分析进行比较，我保持图表的比例不变。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/209f65d605439ca2f039619f15f5fc68\" tg-width=\"690\" tg-height=\"404\"><span>Figure 3: AAPL speculator's weekly return distribution.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图3：AAPL投机者的周回报分布。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Key observation</b>: the distribution above is still somewhat bell-shaped, meaning that a weekly return of between +0.5% and +1.0% is still quite common. However, notice the much “fatter tails”. The probability of larger weekly gains or losses tends to increase when Apple stock is held for ten weeks rather than one year.</li> </ul> <b>#3. AAPL day-traders: buckle up!</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>关键观察</b>：上面的分布仍然有点钟形，这意味着+0.5%到+1.0%之间的周回报率仍然很常见。然而，请注意“更胖的尾巴”。当苹果股票持有十周而不是一年时，每周收益或损失较大的概率往往会增加。</li></ul><b>#3.AAPL日内交易者：系好安全带！</b></blockquote></p><p> Lastly, day-traders that buy Apple stock and sell it within less than a full week have been playing a completely different game. Once again, the histogram below depicts the average<i>weekly return</i>in AAPL when the timeframe is compressed to no more than 7 days. The chart scale, again, remains unchanged for ease of comparison.</p><p><blockquote>最后，买入苹果股票并在不到一周的时间内卖出的日内交易者一直在玩一种完全不同的游戏。同样，下面的直方图描述了平均值<i>每周回报</i>在AAPL，当时间范围被压缩到不超过7天时。为了便于比较，图表比例保持不变。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f77febcce32d4bcc45cf275cc5936671\" tg-width=\"657\" tg-height=\"395\"><span>Figure 4: AAPL day traders's weekly return distribution.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图4：AAPL日内交易者的周回报分布。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Key observation</b>: when buying and selling AAPL in a matter of days, it is most common for the bets to result in much more sizable weekly gains or losses: less than -2.0% or more than +2.0%. Earning long-term average gains of about +0.5% to +1.0%, in these cases, has been a rarity.</li> </ul> <b>What to make of it all</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>关键观察</b>：当在几天内买卖AAPL时，最常见的情况是赌注会导致更大的每周收益或损失：小于-2.0%或大于+2.0%。在这些情况下，获得约+0.5%至+1.0%的长期平均收益是罕见的。</li></ul><b>如何理解这一切</b></blockquote></p><p> Back to the original question: how long should Apple stock be held? Based on historical analysis, the answer really depends on personal goals. Here is the roadmap:</p><p><blockquote>回到最初的问题：苹果股票应该持有多久？基于历史分析，答案确实取决于个人目标。以下是路线图：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>If merely seeking long-term capital appreciation that might be market-beating, but probably not by a very wide margin, buying AAPL and holding it for a year or more is highly advisable. Speculative bets of a few weeks here and there (say, selling into strength and buying into weakness based on price action) could help to boost returns, if the trades are well executed.</li>  <li>If seeking outsized gains, trading AAPL within days would be the best approach. However, this strategy is also the riskiest, as it could lead to outsized losses instead. I believe that day-trading Apple stock is the least advisable approach to most people, but possibly an interesting proposition for a select few.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>如果只是寻求可能跑赢市场的长期资本增值，但幅度可能不会很大，那么购买AAPL并持有一年或更长时间是非常明智的。如果交易执行良好，在这里或那里进行几周的投机性押注（例如，根据价格走势在强势时卖出，在弱势时买入）可能有助于提高回报。</li><li>如果寻求巨额收益，在几天内交易AAPL将是最好的方法。然而，这种策略也是风险最大的，因为它可能会导致巨大的损失。我相信日内交易苹果股票对大多数人来说是最不可取的方法，但对少数人来说可能是一个有趣的提议。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-how-long-should-you-hold-it\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-how-long-should-you-hold-it","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1197544614","content_text":"For best performance, how long should Apple stock be held in a portfolio? The Apple Maven discusses what traders, speculators and investors should expect when betting on AAPL.\nThe Street’s Jim Cramer has said it repeatedly: own Apple stock (ticker $AAPL), don’t trade it. Today, the Apple Maven revisits this idea to help determine how long one should hold Apple shares.\nBelow is an analysis of how much one might expect to gain if (1) day-trading, (2) speculating on, or (3) investing in Apple stock. Obviously, since the future is uncertain, the analysis is based on historical data – which I believe can at least provide a blueprint for future share price performance.\nFigure 1: AAPL trading chart.\n#1. AAPL investors: long-term winners\nAs I mentioned in my recent “Apple Stock 101” article, investors that bought Apple shares in December 1980 (i.e. the IPO date) and held onto them until now realized impressive annualized gains of 19%. Clearly, AAPL has been a good asset to “get and forget” over Apple’s tenure as a publicly-traded company.\nBut allow me to work with more realistic time frames. For this exercise, I will consider “investors” those who hold AAPL for one year. To be clear, many might consider twelve months a minimum investment horizon to qualify as long term.\nAlso, I am limiting my analysis to the past 20 years, since the stock used to be much riskier and more volatile in its first couple of decades of existence than it is now. Apple stock’s returns have been even better during this period that begins with the end of the dot-com correction:35% annualized.\nThe chart below shows the distribution of weekly returns earned by an Apple stock investor, using the parameters described above, if the bet had been made on any give day since May 2001.\nFigure 2: AAPL investor's weekly return distribution.\n\nKey observation: if held for one year, and based on historical observations alone (i.e. not on modeled projections for the future), Apple stock can arguably be expected to produce weekly returns of about +0.5% to +1.0%. Rarely has the stock been a big-time winner or loser – say, weekly returns of more than +2% or less than -1% on average – when the investment horizon is one year.\n\n#2. AAPL speculators: higher octane\nSpeculators have had a bit different experience from the above. Here, I characterize as “speculator” someone who buys AAPL and sells it ten weeks later, or roughly two and a half months after the purchase date.\nSee histogram below. For ease of comparison with the weekly return analysis immediately above, I kept the chart’s scale unchanged.\nFigure 3: AAPL speculator's weekly return distribution.\n\nKey observation: the distribution above is still somewhat bell-shaped, meaning that a weekly return of between +0.5% and +1.0% is still quite common. However, notice the much “fatter tails”. The probability of larger weekly gains or losses tends to increase when Apple stock is held for ten weeks rather than one year.\n\n#3. AAPL day-traders: buckle up!\nLastly, day-traders that buy Apple stock and sell it within less than a full week have been playing a completely different game. Once again, the histogram below depicts the averageweekly returnin AAPL when the timeframe is compressed to no more than 7 days. The chart scale, again, remains unchanged for ease of comparison.\nFigure 4: AAPL day traders's weekly return distribution.\n\nKey observation: when buying and selling AAPL in a matter of days, it is most common for the bets to result in much more sizable weekly gains or losses: less than -2.0% or more than +2.0%. Earning long-term average gains of about +0.5% to +1.0%, in these cases, has been a rarity.\n\nWhat to make of it all\nBack to the original question: how long should Apple stock be held? Based on historical analysis, the answer really depends on personal goals. Here is the roadmap:\n\nIf merely seeking long-term capital appreciation that might be market-beating, but probably not by a very wide margin, buying AAPL and holding it for a year or more is highly advisable. Speculative bets of a few weeks here and there (say, selling into strength and buying into weakness based on price action) could help to boost returns, if the trades are well executed.\nIf seeking outsized gains, trading AAPL within days would be the best approach. However, this strategy is also the riskiest, as it could lead to outsized losses instead. 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