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Opinion: Wall Street’s ‘Big Lie’: Performance claims that are increasingly straining credulity<blockquote>观点：华尔街的“弥天大谎”：越来越令人难以置信的业绩声明</blockquote>
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18:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: Wall Street’s ‘Big Lie’: Performance claims that are increasingly straining credulity<blockquote>观点：华尔街的“弥天大谎”：越来越令人难以置信的业绩声明</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174599088","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"So you think it’s easy to multiply your money 10 times?I’m referring to a propaganda technique of ma","content":"<p><b>So you think it’s easy to multiply your money 10 times?</b>I’m referring to a propaganda technique of making claims so outrageous that people think there must be some grain of truth to them. Small lies are dismissed, but big lies are believed.</p><p><blockquote><b>所以你认为让你的钱翻10倍很容易？</b>我指的是一种宣传技巧，这种技巧使声明如此离谱，以至于人们认为它们一定有一定的真实性。小谎言被驳回，但大谎言被相信。</blockquote></p><p>Consider this bit of clickbait in my inbox that caught my eye over the weekend: <i>“</i>Easily 10x your Money with this Cryptocurrency.” One reason it got my attention is that it was written by an individual who three months ago wrote a similar attention-grabbing piece entitled “100x Your Money With This Cryptocurrency.”</p><p><blockquote>想想我收件箱中的这个点击诱饵，它在周末引起了我的注意：<i>“</i>使用这种加密货币，您的钱可以轻松增加10倍。”它引起我注意的一个原因是，它是由一个人写的，他三个月前写了一篇类似的引人注目的文章，题为“用这种加密货币让你的钱增加100倍”。</blockquote></p><p>The particular cryptocurrency he was championing in February is 13% lower today.</p><p><blockquote>他在2月份倡导的特定加密货币今天下跌了13%。</blockquote></p><p>For the record, I have no idea whether this individual was intentionally bending the truth. But the fact remains that no one produces long-term annualized returns in excess of percentages in the low double digits, whether for stocks or investments like bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.</p><p><blockquote>郑重声明，我不知道这个人是否故意歪曲事实。但事实仍然是，无论是股票还是比特币和其他加密货币等投资，没有人能产生超过两位数百分比的长期年化回报率。</blockquote></p><p>No one. To claim that producing a 10x or a 100x return is “easy” is the functional equivalent of lying—even if the claim’s perpetrators don’t intend it to be.</p><p><blockquote>没有人。声称产生10倍或100倍的回报“很容易”在功能上相当于撒谎——即使这种说法的实施者并不打算这样做。</blockquote></p><p>That’s not to say that triple or even quadruple-digit returns aren’t occasionally—very occasionally—produced. But so are jackpots in Vegas. Because strategies that have even the potential of producing short-term gains that big are extraordinarily risky, regression to the mean will inevitably and quickly bring such returns back down to earth.</p><p><blockquote>这并不是说三位数甚至四位数的回报不会偶尔——非常偶尔——产生。但拉斯维加斯的累积奖金也是如此。因为即使有可能产生如此大的短期收益的策略也是非常危险的，回归均值将不可避免地迅速将这种回报带回现实。</blockquote></p><p>Consider the evidence from my four decades of tracking the performance of investment newsletters. The accompanying chart reports the portfolio returns among monitored newsletters that are the highest over various holding periods. Over the last 12 months, the scoreboard-topping return is 248%. Extend that holding period to the last five years, in contrast, and the return at the top of scoreboard is a lot lower, at 33% annualized.</p><p><blockquote>想想我四十年来跟踪投资通讯表现的证据。随附的图表报告了在不同持有期内受监控的时事通讯中最高的投资组合回报。过去12个月，记分牌最高的回报率为248%。相比之下，将持有期延长至过去五年，记分牌顶部的回报率要低得多，年化回报率为33%。</blockquote></p><p>This declining trend continues as holding period lengthens, as the chart shows. By the time we’re focusing on the last 40 years, the best return is now 14.0% annualized.</p><p><blockquote>如图所示，随着持有期的延长，这种下降趋势仍在继续。当我们关注过去40年时，现在的最佳年化回报率为14.0%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e72f13ee9de2c745913ad0debd3b6c0\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"418\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Don’t think that this pattern is unique to the investment newsletter industry. Almost identical results emerge for mutual funds and hedge funds as well.</p><p><blockquote>不要以为这种模式是投资通讯行业独有的。共同基金和对冲基金也出现了几乎相同的结果。</blockquote></p><p>The best documented long-term return that I know of was produced by the private Medallion Fund, from Renaissance Technologies. Brad Cornell, a professor emeritus at UCLA, reports that this fund produced a 39.2% annualized return (after fees) between 1988 and 2018, in contrast to 10.0% annualized for the S&P 500 index That fund’s return is so much better than that of anyone else on Wall Street that Cornell has confessed to have been “dumbfounded;” he said the return is the functional equivalent of the “sun rising in the west.”</p><p><blockquote>据我所知，记录最好的长期回报是由Renaissance Technologies的私人奖章基金产生的。加州大学洛杉矶分校名誉教授Brad Cornell报告称，该基金在1988年至2018年间的年化回报率（扣除费用后）为39.2%，而标普500指数的年化回报率为10.0%，该基金的回报率远好于华尔街的任何人康奈尔承认“目瞪口呆”；他说，这种回归在功能上相当于“太阳从西边升起”。</blockquote></p><p>And, yet, notice that the Medallion Fund’s return that so strained credulity was “just” 39% annualized. That’s a long way from an “easy” 100x return in a cryptocurrency.</p><p><blockquote>然而，请注意，令人难以置信的大奖章基金的年化回报率“仅”为39%。这距离加密货币“轻松”100倍回报还有很长的路要走。</blockquote></p><p>If you’re a baby boomer, you already know and accept these lessons. If you’re from Gen Z, in contrast, the school of hard knocks has yet to teach you those lessons too.</p><p><blockquote>如果你是婴儿潮一代，你已经知道并接受了这些教训。相比之下，如果你来自Z世代，艰难的学校还没有教你这些课程。</blockquote></p><p>I devoted a column a month ago to this correlation between age and risk-taking in the latter stages of a bull market. Until the youngest investors suffer through their first major bear market, they are fearless risk takers, convinced that making money is easy. Investors of a more advanced age, who have lived through one or more severe bear markets, are older and wiser.</p><p><blockquote>一个月前，我专门写了一篇专栏文章，探讨了牛市后期年龄与冒险行为之间的相关性。在最年轻的投资者经历第一次重大熊市之前，他们都是无所畏惧的冒险家，坚信赚钱很容易。经历过一次或多次严重熊市的老年投资者年龄更大、更明智。</blockquote></p><p>This contrast was borne out yet again in a recent report from GamblersPick, a website that reviews online casinos. The website surveyed 872 investors about their risk tolerance; the respondents were almost equally divided between the four generations listed in the table below. (The balance of those not reflected in the table’s percentages indicated that they were “neutral,” neither risk tolerant nor risk averse.)</p><p><blockquote>这种对比在GamblersPick最近的一份报告中再次得到证实，GamblersPick是一个评论在线赌场的网站。该网站调查了872名投资者的风险承受能力；受访者在下表所列的四代人中几乎平分秋色。（未反映在表中的百分比中的那些人的余额表明他们是“中性的”，既不容忍风险也不厌恶风险。）</blockquote></p><p><table><tbody><tr><td>Generation</td><td>Risk-tolerant</td><td>Risk-averse</td></tr><tr><td>Gen Z</td><td>57%</td><td>25%</td></tr><tr><td>Millennials</td><td>49%</td><td>32%</td></tr><tr><td>Gen X</td><td>38%</td><td>44%</td></tr><tr><td>Baby boomers and older</td><td>36%</td><td>46%</td></tr></tbody></table>In my experience, no amount of academic education (“book learning”) can fully substitute for what gets learned from actually living through a bear market. And that means that today’s risk-tolerant younger investors will themselves someday become the old fuddy-duddies that the rest of us appear to be today.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>代</td><td>风险承受能力</td><td>规避风险</td></tr><tr><td>Z世代</td><td>57%</td><td>25%</td></tr><tr><td>千禧一代</td><td>49%</td><td>32%</td></tr><tr><td>X世代</td><td>38%</td><td>44%</td></tr><tr><td>婴儿潮一代及老年人</td><td>36%</td><td>46%</td></tr></tbody></table>根据我的经验，再多的学术教育（“书本学习”）也无法完全替代从熊市中实际生活中学到的东西。这意味着今天能够承受风险的年轻投资者有一天会成为我们其他人今天看起来的老古董。</blockquote></p><p>In the meantime, they—and the market—are skating on thin ice. Though we don’t know how the bull market’s story will unfold over the next several months, we do know how it will eventually end.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，他们和市场都如履薄冰。虽然我们不知道未来几个月牛市的故事将如何展开，但我们确实知道它最终将如何结束。</blockquote></p><p>It’s not a happy one.</p><p><blockquote>这不是一个快乐的故事。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: Wall Street’s ‘Big Lie’: Performance claims that are increasingly straining credulity<blockquote>观点：华尔街的“弥天大谎”：越来越令人难以置信的业绩声明</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: Wall Street’s ‘Big Lie’: Performance claims that are increasingly straining credulity<blockquote>观点：华尔街的“弥天大谎”：越来越令人难以置信的业绩声明</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-12 18:09</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>So you think it’s easy to multiply your money 10 times?</b>I’m referring to a propaganda technique of making claims so outrageous that people think there must be some grain of truth to them. Small lies are dismissed, but big lies are believed.</p><p><blockquote><b>所以你认为让你的钱翻10倍很容易？</b>我指的是一种宣传技巧，这种技巧使声明如此离谱，以至于人们认为它们一定有一定的真实性。小谎言被驳回，但大谎言被相信。</blockquote></p><p>Consider this bit of clickbait in my inbox that caught my eye over the weekend: <i>“</i>Easily 10x your Money with this Cryptocurrency.” One reason it got my attention is that it was written by an individual who three months ago wrote a similar attention-grabbing piece entitled “100x Your Money With This Cryptocurrency.”</p><p><blockquote>想想我收件箱中的这个点击诱饵，它在周末引起了我的注意：<i>“</i>使用这种加密货币，您的钱可以轻松增加10倍。”它引起我注意的一个原因是，它是由一个人写的，他三个月前写了一篇类似的引人注目的文章，题为“用这种加密货币让你的钱增加100倍”。</blockquote></p><p>The particular cryptocurrency he was championing in February is 13% lower today.</p><p><blockquote>他在2月份倡导的特定加密货币今天下跌了13%。</blockquote></p><p>For the record, I have no idea whether this individual was intentionally bending the truth. But the fact remains that no one produces long-term annualized returns in excess of percentages in the low double digits, whether for stocks or investments like bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.</p><p><blockquote>郑重声明，我不知道这个人是否故意歪曲事实。但事实仍然是，无论是股票还是比特币和其他加密货币等投资，没有人能产生超过两位数百分比的长期年化回报率。</blockquote></p><p>No one. To claim that producing a 10x or a 100x return is “easy” is the functional equivalent of lying—even if the claim’s perpetrators don’t intend it to be.</p><p><blockquote>没有人。声称产生10倍或100倍的回报“很容易”在功能上相当于撒谎——即使这种说法的实施者并不打算这样做。</blockquote></p><p>That’s not to say that triple or even quadruple-digit returns aren’t occasionally—very occasionally—produced. But so are jackpots in Vegas. Because strategies that have even the potential of producing short-term gains that big are extraordinarily risky, regression to the mean will inevitably and quickly bring such returns back down to earth.</p><p><blockquote>这并不是说三位数甚至四位数的回报不会偶尔——非常偶尔——产生。但拉斯维加斯的累积奖金也是如此。因为即使有可能产生如此大的短期收益的策略也是非常危险的，回归均值将不可避免地迅速将这种回报带回现实。</blockquote></p><p>Consider the evidence from my four decades of tracking the performance of investment newsletters. The accompanying chart reports the portfolio returns among monitored newsletters that are the highest over various holding periods. Over the last 12 months, the scoreboard-topping return is 248%. Extend that holding period to the last five years, in contrast, and the return at the top of scoreboard is a lot lower, at 33% annualized.</p><p><blockquote>想想我四十年来跟踪投资通讯表现的证据。随附的图表报告了在不同持有期内受监控的时事通讯中最高的投资组合回报。过去12个月，记分牌最高的回报率为248%。相比之下，将持有期延长至过去五年，记分牌顶部的回报率要低得多，年化回报率为33%。</blockquote></p><p>This declining trend continues as holding period lengthens, as the chart shows. By the time we’re focusing on the last 40 years, the best return is now 14.0% annualized.</p><p><blockquote>如图所示，随着持有期的延长，这种下降趋势仍在继续。当我们关注过去40年时，现在的最佳年化回报率为14.0%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e72f13ee9de2c745913ad0debd3b6c0\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"418\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Don’t think that this pattern is unique to the investment newsletter industry. Almost identical results emerge for mutual funds and hedge funds as well.</p><p><blockquote>不要以为这种模式是投资通讯行业独有的。共同基金和对冲基金也出现了几乎相同的结果。</blockquote></p><p>The best documented long-term return that I know of was produced by the private Medallion Fund, from Renaissance Technologies. Brad Cornell, a professor emeritus at UCLA, reports that this fund produced a 39.2% annualized return (after fees) between 1988 and 2018, in contrast to 10.0% annualized for the S&P 500 index That fund’s return is so much better than that of anyone else on Wall Street that Cornell has confessed to have been “dumbfounded;” he said the return is the functional equivalent of the “sun rising in the west.”</p><p><blockquote>据我所知，记录最好的长期回报是由Renaissance Technologies的私人奖章基金产生的。加州大学洛杉矶分校名誉教授Brad Cornell报告称，该基金在1988年至2018年间的年化回报率（扣除费用后）为39.2%，而标普500指数的年化回报率为10.0%，该基金的回报率远好于华尔街的任何人康奈尔承认“目瞪口呆”；他说，这种回归在功能上相当于“太阳从西边升起”。</blockquote></p><p>And, yet, notice that the Medallion Fund’s return that so strained credulity was “just” 39% annualized. That’s a long way from an “easy” 100x return in a cryptocurrency.</p><p><blockquote>然而，请注意，令人难以置信的大奖章基金的年化回报率“仅”为39%。这距离加密货币“轻松”100倍回报还有很长的路要走。</blockquote></p><p>If you’re a baby boomer, you already know and accept these lessons. If you’re from Gen Z, in contrast, the school of hard knocks has yet to teach you those lessons too.</p><p><blockquote>如果你是婴儿潮一代，你已经知道并接受了这些教训。相比之下，如果你来自Z世代，艰难的学校还没有教你这些课程。</blockquote></p><p>I devoted a column a month ago to this correlation between age and risk-taking in the latter stages of a bull market. Until the youngest investors suffer through their first major bear market, they are fearless risk takers, convinced that making money is easy. Investors of a more advanced age, who have lived through one or more severe bear markets, are older and wiser.</p><p><blockquote>一个月前，我专门写了一篇专栏文章，探讨了牛市后期年龄与冒险行为之间的相关性。在最年轻的投资者经历第一次重大熊市之前，他们都是无所畏惧的冒险家，坚信赚钱很容易。经历过一次或多次严重熊市的老年投资者年龄更大、更明智。</blockquote></p><p>This contrast was borne out yet again in a recent report from GamblersPick, a website that reviews online casinos. The website surveyed 872 investors about their risk tolerance; the respondents were almost equally divided between the four generations listed in the table below. (The balance of those not reflected in the table’s percentages indicated that they were “neutral,” neither risk tolerant nor risk averse.)</p><p><blockquote>这种对比在GamblersPick最近的一份报告中再次得到证实，GamblersPick是一个评论在线赌场的网站。该网站调查了872名投资者的风险承受能力；受访者在下表所列的四代人中几乎平分秋色。（未反映在表中的百分比中的那些人的余额表明他们是“中性的”，既不容忍风险也不厌恶风险。）</blockquote></p><p><table><tbody><tr><td>Generation</td><td>Risk-tolerant</td><td>Risk-averse</td></tr><tr><td>Gen Z</td><td>57%</td><td>25%</td></tr><tr><td>Millennials</td><td>49%</td><td>32%</td></tr><tr><td>Gen X</td><td>38%</td><td>44%</td></tr><tr><td>Baby boomers and older</td><td>36%</td><td>46%</td></tr></tbody></table>In my experience, no amount of academic education (“book learning”) can fully substitute for what gets learned from actually living through a bear market. And that means that today’s risk-tolerant younger investors will themselves someday become the old fuddy-duddies that the rest of us appear to be today.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>代</td><td>风险承受能力</td><td>规避风险</td></tr><tr><td>Z世代</td><td>57%</td><td>25%</td></tr><tr><td>千禧一代</td><td>49%</td><td>32%</td></tr><tr><td>X世代</td><td>38%</td><td>44%</td></tr><tr><td>婴儿潮一代及老年人</td><td>36%</td><td>46%</td></tr></tbody></table>根据我的经验，再多的学术教育（“书本学习”）也无法完全替代从熊市中实际生活中学到的东西。这意味着今天能够承受风险的年轻投资者有一天会成为我们其他人今天看起来的老古董。</blockquote></p><p>In the meantime, they—and the market—are skating on thin ice. Though we don’t know how the bull market’s story will unfold over the next several months, we do know how it will eventually end.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，他们和市场都如履薄冰。虽然我们不知道未来几个月牛市的故事将如何展开，但我们确实知道它最终将如何结束。</blockquote></p><p>It’s not a happy one.</p><p><blockquote>这不是一个快乐的故事。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wall-streets-big-lie-performance-claims-that-are-increasingly-straining-credulity-11620680630?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wall-streets-big-lie-performance-claims-that-are-increasingly-straining-credulity-11620680630?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174599088","content_text":"So you think it’s easy to multiply your money 10 times?I’m referring to a propaganda technique of making claims so outrageous that people think there must be some grain of truth to them. Small lies are dismissed, but big lies are believed.Consider this bit of clickbait in my inbox that caught my eye over the weekend: “Easily 10x your Money with this Cryptocurrency.” One reason it got my attention is that it was written by an individual who three months ago wrote a similar attention-grabbing piece entitled “100x Your Money With This Cryptocurrency.”The particular cryptocurrency he was championing in February is 13% lower today.For the record, I have no idea whether this individual was intentionally bending the truth. But the fact remains that no one produces long-term annualized returns in excess of percentages in the low double digits, whether for stocks or investments like bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.No one. To claim that producing a 10x or a 100x return is “easy” is the functional equivalent of lying—even if the claim’s perpetrators don’t intend it to be.That’s not to say that triple or even quadruple-digit returns aren’t occasionally—very occasionally—produced. But so are jackpots in Vegas. Because strategies that have even the potential of producing short-term gains that big are extraordinarily risky, regression to the mean will inevitably and quickly bring such returns back down to earth.Consider the evidence from my four decades of tracking the performance of investment newsletters. The accompanying chart reports the portfolio returns among monitored newsletters that are the highest over various holding periods. Over the last 12 months, the scoreboard-topping return is 248%. Extend that holding period to the last five years, in contrast, and the return at the top of scoreboard is a lot lower, at 33% annualized.This declining trend continues as holding period lengthens, as the chart shows. By the time we’re focusing on the last 40 years, the best return is now 14.0% annualized.Don’t think that this pattern is unique to the investment newsletter industry. Almost identical results emerge for mutual funds and hedge funds as well.The best documented long-term return that I know of was produced by the private Medallion Fund, from Renaissance Technologies. Brad Cornell, a professor emeritus at UCLA, reports that this fund produced a 39.2% annualized return (after fees) between 1988 and 2018, in contrast to 10.0% annualized for the S&P 500 index That fund’s return is so much better than that of anyone else on Wall Street that Cornell has confessed to have been “dumbfounded;” he said the return is the functional equivalent of the “sun rising in the west.”And, yet, notice that the Medallion Fund’s return that so strained credulity was “just” 39% annualized. That’s a long way from an “easy” 100x return in a cryptocurrency.If you’re a baby boomer, you already know and accept these lessons. If you’re from Gen Z, in contrast, the school of hard knocks has yet to teach you those lessons too.I devoted a column a month ago to this correlation between age and risk-taking in the latter stages of a bull market. Until the youngest investors suffer through their first major bear market, they are fearless risk takers, convinced that making money is easy. Investors of a more advanced age, who have lived through one or more severe bear markets, are older and wiser.This contrast was borne out yet again in a recent report from GamblersPick, a website that reviews online casinos. The website surveyed 872 investors about their risk tolerance; the respondents were almost equally divided between the four generations listed in the table below. (The balance of those not reflected in the table’s percentages indicated that they were “neutral,” neither risk tolerant nor risk averse.)GenerationRisk-tolerantRisk-averseGen Z57%25%Millennials49%32%Gen X38%44%Baby boomers and older36%46%In my experience, no amount of academic education (“book learning”) can fully substitute for what gets learned from actually living through a bear market. And that means that today’s risk-tolerant younger investors will themselves someday become the old fuddy-duddies that the rest of us appear to be today.In the meantime, they—and the market—are skating on thin ice. Though we don’t know how the bull market’s story will unfold over the next several months, we do know how it will eventually end.It’s not a happy one.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1675,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":190619625,"gmtCreate":1620615070667,"gmtModify":1631887251967,"author":{"id":"3581720576836356","authorId":"3581720576836356","name":"Clone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581720576836356","idStr":"3581720576836356"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Latest","listText":"Latest","text":"Latest","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/190619625","repostId":"2134686276","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2250,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":105508533,"gmtCreate":1620309726322,"gmtModify":1631887251977,"author":{"id":"3581720576836356","authorId":"3581720576836356","name":"Clone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581720576836356","idStr":"3581720576836356"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh no","listText":"Oh no","text":"Oh no","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/105508533","repostId":"2133387578","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1693,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":375804473,"gmtCreate":1619320528592,"gmtModify":1631887251991,"author":{"id":"3581720576836356","authorId":"3581720576836356","name":"Clone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581720576836356","idStr":"3581720576836356"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Useful ","listText":"Useful ","text":"Useful","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375804473","repostId":"1184404050","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1816,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":375060432,"gmtCreate":1619259895526,"gmtModify":1631887252003,"author":{"id":"3581720576836356","authorId":"3581720576836356","name":"Clone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581720576836356","idStr":"3581720576836356"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375060432","repostId":"1166519043","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1460,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":162566733,"gmtCreate":1624068413022,"gmtModify":1631887251939,"author":{"id":"3581720576836356","authorId":"3581720576836356","name":"Clone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581720576836356","idStr":"3581720576836356"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Latest","listText":"Latest","text":"Latest","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162566733","repostId":"1199331995","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1660,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":193791815,"gmtCreate":1620817274637,"gmtModify":1631887251953,"author":{"id":"3581720576836356","authorId":"3581720576836356","name":"Clone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581720576836356","idStr":"3581720576836356"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Latest","listText":"Latest","text":"Latest","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/193791815","repostId":"1174599088","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1174599088","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620814183,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1174599088?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-12 18:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: Wall Street’s ‘Big Lie’: Performance claims that are increasingly straining credulity<blockquote>观点：华尔街的“弥天大谎”：越来越令人难以置信的业绩声明</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174599088","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"So you think it’s easy to multiply your money 10 times?I’m referring to a propaganda technique of ma","content":"<p><b>So you think it’s easy to multiply your money 10 times?</b>I’m referring to a propaganda technique of making claims so outrageous that people think there must be some grain of truth to them. Small lies are dismissed, but big lies are believed.</p><p><blockquote><b>所以你认为让你的钱翻10倍很容易？</b>我指的是一种宣传技巧，这种技巧使声明如此离谱，以至于人们认为它们一定有一定的真实性。小谎言被驳回，但大谎言被相信。</blockquote></p><p>Consider this bit of clickbait in my inbox that caught my eye over the weekend: <i>“</i>Easily 10x your Money with this Cryptocurrency.” One reason it got my attention is that it was written by an individual who three months ago wrote a similar attention-grabbing piece entitled “100x Your Money With This Cryptocurrency.”</p><p><blockquote>想想我收件箱中的这个点击诱饵，它在周末引起了我的注意：<i>“</i>使用这种加密货币，您的钱可以轻松增加10倍。”它引起我注意的一个原因是，它是由一个人写的，他三个月前写了一篇类似的引人注目的文章，题为“用这种加密货币让你的钱增加100倍”。</blockquote></p><p>The particular cryptocurrency he was championing in February is 13% lower today.</p><p><blockquote>他在2月份倡导的特定加密货币今天下跌了13%。</blockquote></p><p>For the record, I have no idea whether this individual was intentionally bending the truth. But the fact remains that no one produces long-term annualized returns in excess of percentages in the low double digits, whether for stocks or investments like bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.</p><p><blockquote>郑重声明，我不知道这个人是否故意歪曲事实。但事实仍然是，无论是股票还是比特币和其他加密货币等投资，没有人能产生超过两位数百分比的长期年化回报率。</blockquote></p><p>No one. To claim that producing a 10x or a 100x return is “easy” is the functional equivalent of lying—even if the claim’s perpetrators don’t intend it to be.</p><p><blockquote>没有人。声称产生10倍或100倍的回报“很容易”在功能上相当于撒谎——即使这种说法的实施者并不打算这样做。</blockquote></p><p>That’s not to say that triple or even quadruple-digit returns aren’t occasionally—very occasionally—produced. But so are jackpots in Vegas. Because strategies that have even the potential of producing short-term gains that big are extraordinarily risky, regression to the mean will inevitably and quickly bring such returns back down to earth.</p><p><blockquote>这并不是说三位数甚至四位数的回报不会偶尔——非常偶尔——产生。但拉斯维加斯的累积奖金也是如此。因为即使有可能产生如此大的短期收益的策略也是非常危险的，回归均值将不可避免地迅速将这种回报带回现实。</blockquote></p><p>Consider the evidence from my four decades of tracking the performance of investment newsletters. The accompanying chart reports the portfolio returns among monitored newsletters that are the highest over various holding periods. Over the last 12 months, the scoreboard-topping return is 248%. Extend that holding period to the last five years, in contrast, and the return at the top of scoreboard is a lot lower, at 33% annualized.</p><p><blockquote>想想我四十年来跟踪投资通讯表现的证据。随附的图表报告了在不同持有期内受监控的时事通讯中最高的投资组合回报。过去12个月，记分牌最高的回报率为248%。相比之下，将持有期延长至过去五年，记分牌顶部的回报率要低得多，年化回报率为33%。</blockquote></p><p>This declining trend continues as holding period lengthens, as the chart shows. By the time we’re focusing on the last 40 years, the best return is now 14.0% annualized.</p><p><blockquote>如图所示，随着持有期的延长，这种下降趋势仍在继续。当我们关注过去40年时，现在的最佳年化回报率为14.0%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e72f13ee9de2c745913ad0debd3b6c0\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"418\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Don’t think that this pattern is unique to the investment newsletter industry. Almost identical results emerge for mutual funds and hedge funds as well.</p><p><blockquote>不要以为这种模式是投资通讯行业独有的。共同基金和对冲基金也出现了几乎相同的结果。</blockquote></p><p>The best documented long-term return that I know of was produced by the private Medallion Fund, from Renaissance Technologies. Brad Cornell, a professor emeritus at UCLA, reports that this fund produced a 39.2% annualized return (after fees) between 1988 and 2018, in contrast to 10.0% annualized for the S&P 500 index That fund’s return is so much better than that of anyone else on Wall Street that Cornell has confessed to have been “dumbfounded;” he said the return is the functional equivalent of the “sun rising in the west.”</p><p><blockquote>据我所知，记录最好的长期回报是由Renaissance Technologies的私人奖章基金产生的。加州大学洛杉矶分校名誉教授Brad Cornell报告称，该基金在1988年至2018年间的年化回报率（扣除费用后）为39.2%，而标普500指数的年化回报率为10.0%，该基金的回报率远好于华尔街的任何人康奈尔承认“目瞪口呆”；他说，这种回归在功能上相当于“太阳从西边升起”。</blockquote></p><p>And, yet, notice that the Medallion Fund’s return that so strained credulity was “just” 39% annualized. That’s a long way from an “easy” 100x return in a cryptocurrency.</p><p><blockquote>然而，请注意，令人难以置信的大奖章基金的年化回报率“仅”为39%。这距离加密货币“轻松”100倍回报还有很长的路要走。</blockquote></p><p>If you’re a baby boomer, you already know and accept these lessons. If you’re from Gen Z, in contrast, the school of hard knocks has yet to teach you those lessons too.</p><p><blockquote>如果你是婴儿潮一代，你已经知道并接受了这些教训。相比之下，如果你来自Z世代，艰难的学校还没有教你这些课程。</blockquote></p><p>I devoted a column a month ago to this correlation between age and risk-taking in the latter stages of a bull market. Until the youngest investors suffer through their first major bear market, they are fearless risk takers, convinced that making money is easy. Investors of a more advanced age, who have lived through one or more severe bear markets, are older and wiser.</p><p><blockquote>一个月前，我专门写了一篇专栏文章，探讨了牛市后期年龄与冒险行为之间的相关性。在最年轻的投资者经历第一次重大熊市之前，他们都是无所畏惧的冒险家，坚信赚钱很容易。经历过一次或多次严重熊市的老年投资者年龄更大、更明智。</blockquote></p><p>This contrast was borne out yet again in a recent report from GamblersPick, a website that reviews online casinos. The website surveyed 872 investors about their risk tolerance; the respondents were almost equally divided between the four generations listed in the table below. (The balance of those not reflected in the table’s percentages indicated that they were “neutral,” neither risk tolerant nor risk averse.)</p><p><blockquote>这种对比在GamblersPick最近的一份报告中再次得到证实，GamblersPick是一个评论在线赌场的网站。该网站调查了872名投资者的风险承受能力；受访者在下表所列的四代人中几乎平分秋色。（未反映在表中的百分比中的那些人的余额表明他们是“中性的”，既不容忍风险也不厌恶风险。）</blockquote></p><p><table><tbody><tr><td>Generation</td><td>Risk-tolerant</td><td>Risk-averse</td></tr><tr><td>Gen Z</td><td>57%</td><td>25%</td></tr><tr><td>Millennials</td><td>49%</td><td>32%</td></tr><tr><td>Gen X</td><td>38%</td><td>44%</td></tr><tr><td>Baby boomers and older</td><td>36%</td><td>46%</td></tr></tbody></table>In my experience, no amount of academic education (“book learning”) can fully substitute for what gets learned from actually living through a bear market. And that means that today’s risk-tolerant younger investors will themselves someday become the old fuddy-duddies that the rest of us appear to be today.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>代</td><td>风险承受能力</td><td>规避风险</td></tr><tr><td>Z世代</td><td>57%</td><td>25%</td></tr><tr><td>千禧一代</td><td>49%</td><td>32%</td></tr><tr><td>X世代</td><td>38%</td><td>44%</td></tr><tr><td>婴儿潮一代及老年人</td><td>36%</td><td>46%</td></tr></tbody></table>根据我的经验，再多的学术教育（“书本学习”）也无法完全替代从熊市中实际生活中学到的东西。这意味着今天能够承受风险的年轻投资者有一天会成为我们其他人今天看起来的老古董。</blockquote></p><p>In the meantime, they—and the market—are skating on thin ice. Though we don’t know how the bull market’s story will unfold over the next several months, we do know how it will eventually end.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，他们和市场都如履薄冰。虽然我们不知道未来几个月牛市的故事将如何展开，但我们确实知道它最终将如何结束。</blockquote></p><p>It’s not a happy one.</p><p><blockquote>这不是一个快乐的故事。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: Wall Street’s ‘Big Lie’: Performance claims that are increasingly straining credulity<blockquote>观点：华尔街的“弥天大谎”：越来越令人难以置信的业绩声明</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: Wall Street’s ‘Big Lie’: Performance claims that are increasingly straining credulity<blockquote>观点：华尔街的“弥天大谎”：越来越令人难以置信的业绩声明</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-12 18:09</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>So you think it’s easy to multiply your money 10 times?</b>I’m referring to a propaganda technique of making claims so outrageous that people think there must be some grain of truth to them. Small lies are dismissed, but big lies are believed.</p><p><blockquote><b>所以你认为让你的钱翻10倍很容易？</b>我指的是一种宣传技巧，这种技巧使声明如此离谱，以至于人们认为它们一定有一定的真实性。小谎言被驳回，但大谎言被相信。</blockquote></p><p>Consider this bit of clickbait in my inbox that caught my eye over the weekend: <i>“</i>Easily 10x your Money with this Cryptocurrency.” One reason it got my attention is that it was written by an individual who three months ago wrote a similar attention-grabbing piece entitled “100x Your Money With This Cryptocurrency.”</p><p><blockquote>想想我收件箱中的这个点击诱饵，它在周末引起了我的注意：<i>“</i>使用这种加密货币，您的钱可以轻松增加10倍。”它引起我注意的一个原因是，它是由一个人写的，他三个月前写了一篇类似的引人注目的文章，题为“用这种加密货币让你的钱增加100倍”。</blockquote></p><p>The particular cryptocurrency he was championing in February is 13% lower today.</p><p><blockquote>他在2月份倡导的特定加密货币今天下跌了13%。</blockquote></p><p>For the record, I have no idea whether this individual was intentionally bending the truth. But the fact remains that no one produces long-term annualized returns in excess of percentages in the low double digits, whether for stocks or investments like bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.</p><p><blockquote>郑重声明，我不知道这个人是否故意歪曲事实。但事实仍然是，无论是股票还是比特币和其他加密货币等投资，没有人能产生超过两位数百分比的长期年化回报率。</blockquote></p><p>No one. To claim that producing a 10x or a 100x return is “easy” is the functional equivalent of lying—even if the claim’s perpetrators don’t intend it to be.</p><p><blockquote>没有人。声称产生10倍或100倍的回报“很容易”在功能上相当于撒谎——即使这种说法的实施者并不打算这样做。</blockquote></p><p>That’s not to say that triple or even quadruple-digit returns aren’t occasionally—very occasionally—produced. But so are jackpots in Vegas. Because strategies that have even the potential of producing short-term gains that big are extraordinarily risky, regression to the mean will inevitably and quickly bring such returns back down to earth.</p><p><blockquote>这并不是说三位数甚至四位数的回报不会偶尔——非常偶尔——产生。但拉斯维加斯的累积奖金也是如此。因为即使有可能产生如此大的短期收益的策略也是非常危险的，回归均值将不可避免地迅速将这种回报带回现实。</blockquote></p><p>Consider the evidence from my four decades of tracking the performance of investment newsletters. The accompanying chart reports the portfolio returns among monitored newsletters that are the highest over various holding periods. Over the last 12 months, the scoreboard-topping return is 248%. Extend that holding period to the last five years, in contrast, and the return at the top of scoreboard is a lot lower, at 33% annualized.</p><p><blockquote>想想我四十年来跟踪投资通讯表现的证据。随附的图表报告了在不同持有期内受监控的时事通讯中最高的投资组合回报。过去12个月，记分牌最高的回报率为248%。相比之下，将持有期延长至过去五年，记分牌顶部的回报率要低得多，年化回报率为33%。</blockquote></p><p>This declining trend continues as holding period lengthens, as the chart shows. By the time we’re focusing on the last 40 years, the best return is now 14.0% annualized.</p><p><blockquote>如图所示，随着持有期的延长，这种下降趋势仍在继续。当我们关注过去40年时，现在的最佳年化回报率为14.0%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e72f13ee9de2c745913ad0debd3b6c0\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"418\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Don’t think that this pattern is unique to the investment newsletter industry. Almost identical results emerge for mutual funds and hedge funds as well.</p><p><blockquote>不要以为这种模式是投资通讯行业独有的。共同基金和对冲基金也出现了几乎相同的结果。</blockquote></p><p>The best documented long-term return that I know of was produced by the private Medallion Fund, from Renaissance Technologies. Brad Cornell, a professor emeritus at UCLA, reports that this fund produced a 39.2% annualized return (after fees) between 1988 and 2018, in contrast to 10.0% annualized for the S&P 500 index That fund’s return is so much better than that of anyone else on Wall Street that Cornell has confessed to have been “dumbfounded;” he said the return is the functional equivalent of the “sun rising in the west.”</p><p><blockquote>据我所知，记录最好的长期回报是由Renaissance Technologies的私人奖章基金产生的。加州大学洛杉矶分校名誉教授Brad Cornell报告称，该基金在1988年至2018年间的年化回报率（扣除费用后）为39.2%，而标普500指数的年化回报率为10.0%，该基金的回报率远好于华尔街的任何人康奈尔承认“目瞪口呆”；他说，这种回归在功能上相当于“太阳从西边升起”。</blockquote></p><p>And, yet, notice that the Medallion Fund’s return that so strained credulity was “just” 39% annualized. That’s a long way from an “easy” 100x return in a cryptocurrency.</p><p><blockquote>然而，请注意，令人难以置信的大奖章基金的年化回报率“仅”为39%。这距离加密货币“轻松”100倍回报还有很长的路要走。</blockquote></p><p>If you’re a baby boomer, you already know and accept these lessons. If you’re from Gen Z, in contrast, the school of hard knocks has yet to teach you those lessons too.</p><p><blockquote>如果你是婴儿潮一代，你已经知道并接受了这些教训。相比之下，如果你来自Z世代，艰难的学校还没有教你这些课程。</blockquote></p><p>I devoted a column a month ago to this correlation between age and risk-taking in the latter stages of a bull market. Until the youngest investors suffer through their first major bear market, they are fearless risk takers, convinced that making money is easy. Investors of a more advanced age, who have lived through one or more severe bear markets, are older and wiser.</p><p><blockquote>一个月前，我专门写了一篇专栏文章，探讨了牛市后期年龄与冒险行为之间的相关性。在最年轻的投资者经历第一次重大熊市之前，他们都是无所畏惧的冒险家，坚信赚钱很容易。经历过一次或多次严重熊市的老年投资者年龄更大、更明智。</blockquote></p><p>This contrast was borne out yet again in a recent report from GamblersPick, a website that reviews online casinos. The website surveyed 872 investors about their risk tolerance; the respondents were almost equally divided between the four generations listed in the table below. (The balance of those not reflected in the table’s percentages indicated that they were “neutral,” neither risk tolerant nor risk averse.)</p><p><blockquote>这种对比在GamblersPick最近的一份报告中再次得到证实，GamblersPick是一个评论在线赌场的网站。该网站调查了872名投资者的风险承受能力；受访者在下表所列的四代人中几乎平分秋色。（未反映在表中的百分比中的那些人的余额表明他们是“中性的”，既不容忍风险也不厌恶风险。）</blockquote></p><p><table><tbody><tr><td>Generation</td><td>Risk-tolerant</td><td>Risk-averse</td></tr><tr><td>Gen Z</td><td>57%</td><td>25%</td></tr><tr><td>Millennials</td><td>49%</td><td>32%</td></tr><tr><td>Gen X</td><td>38%</td><td>44%</td></tr><tr><td>Baby boomers and older</td><td>36%</td><td>46%</td></tr></tbody></table>In my experience, no amount of academic education (“book learning”) can fully substitute for what gets learned from actually living through a bear market. And that means that today’s risk-tolerant younger investors will themselves someday become the old fuddy-duddies that the rest of us appear to be today.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>代</td><td>风险承受能力</td><td>规避风险</td></tr><tr><td>Z世代</td><td>57%</td><td>25%</td></tr><tr><td>千禧一代</td><td>49%</td><td>32%</td></tr><tr><td>X世代</td><td>38%</td><td>44%</td></tr><tr><td>婴儿潮一代及老年人</td><td>36%</td><td>46%</td></tr></tbody></table>根据我的经验，再多的学术教育（“书本学习”）也无法完全替代从熊市中实际生活中学到的东西。这意味着今天能够承受风险的年轻投资者有一天会成为我们其他人今天看起来的老古董。</blockquote></p><p>In the meantime, they—and the market—are skating on thin ice. Though we don’t know how the bull market’s story will unfold over the next several months, we do know how it will eventually end.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，他们和市场都如履薄冰。虽然我们不知道未来几个月牛市的故事将如何展开，但我们确实知道它最终将如何结束。</blockquote></p><p>It’s not a happy one.</p><p><blockquote>这不是一个快乐的故事。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wall-streets-big-lie-performance-claims-that-are-increasingly-straining-credulity-11620680630?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wall-streets-big-lie-performance-claims-that-are-increasingly-straining-credulity-11620680630?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174599088","content_text":"So you think it’s easy to multiply your money 10 times?I’m referring to a propaganda technique of making claims so outrageous that people think there must be some grain of truth to them. Small lies are dismissed, but big lies are believed.Consider this bit of clickbait in my inbox that caught my eye over the weekend: “Easily 10x your Money with this Cryptocurrency.” One reason it got my attention is that it was written by an individual who three months ago wrote a similar attention-grabbing piece entitled “100x Your Money With This Cryptocurrency.”The particular cryptocurrency he was championing in February is 13% lower today.For the record, I have no idea whether this individual was intentionally bending the truth. But the fact remains that no one produces long-term annualized returns in excess of percentages in the low double digits, whether for stocks or investments like bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.No one. To claim that producing a 10x or a 100x return is “easy” is the functional equivalent of lying—even if the claim’s perpetrators don’t intend it to be.That’s not to say that triple or even quadruple-digit returns aren’t occasionally—very occasionally—produced. But so are jackpots in Vegas. Because strategies that have even the potential of producing short-term gains that big are extraordinarily risky, regression to the mean will inevitably and quickly bring such returns back down to earth.Consider the evidence from my four decades of tracking the performance of investment newsletters. The accompanying chart reports the portfolio returns among monitored newsletters that are the highest over various holding periods. Over the last 12 months, the scoreboard-topping return is 248%. Extend that holding period to the last five years, in contrast, and the return at the top of scoreboard is a lot lower, at 33% annualized.This declining trend continues as holding period lengthens, as the chart shows. By the time we’re focusing on the last 40 years, the best return is now 14.0% annualized.Don’t think that this pattern is unique to the investment newsletter industry. Almost identical results emerge for mutual funds and hedge funds as well.The best documented long-term return that I know of was produced by the private Medallion Fund, from Renaissance Technologies. Brad Cornell, a professor emeritus at UCLA, reports that this fund produced a 39.2% annualized return (after fees) between 1988 and 2018, in contrast to 10.0% annualized for the S&P 500 index That fund’s return is so much better than that of anyone else on Wall Street that Cornell has confessed to have been “dumbfounded;” he said the return is the functional equivalent of the “sun rising in the west.”And, yet, notice that the Medallion Fund’s return that so strained credulity was “just” 39% annualized. That’s a long way from an “easy” 100x return in a cryptocurrency.If you’re a baby boomer, you already know and accept these lessons. If you’re from Gen Z, in contrast, the school of hard knocks has yet to teach you those lessons too.I devoted a column a month ago to this correlation between age and risk-taking in the latter stages of a bull market. Until the youngest investors suffer through their first major bear market, they are fearless risk takers, convinced that making money is easy. Investors of a more advanced age, who have lived through one or more severe bear markets, are older and wiser.This contrast was borne out yet again in a recent report from GamblersPick, a website that reviews online casinos. The website surveyed 872 investors about their risk tolerance; the respondents were almost equally divided between the four generations listed in the table below. (The balance of those not reflected in the table’s percentages indicated that they were “neutral,” neither risk tolerant nor risk averse.)GenerationRisk-tolerantRisk-averseGen Z57%25%Millennials49%32%Gen X38%44%Baby boomers and older36%46%In my experience, no amount of academic education (“book learning”) can fully substitute for what gets learned from actually living through a bear market. And that means that today’s risk-tolerant younger investors will themselves someday become the old fuddy-duddies that the rest of us appear to be today.In the meantime, they—and the market—are skating on thin ice. Though we don’t know how the bull market’s story will unfold over the next several months, we do know how it will eventually end.It’s not a happy one.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1675,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":105508533,"gmtCreate":1620309726322,"gmtModify":1631887251977,"author":{"id":"3581720576836356","authorId":"3581720576836356","name":"Clone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581720576836356","idStr":"3581720576836356"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh no","listText":"Oh no","text":"Oh no","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/105508533","repostId":"2133387578","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1693,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":375804473,"gmtCreate":1619320528592,"gmtModify":1631887251991,"author":{"id":"3581720576836356","authorId":"3581720576836356","name":"Clone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581720576836356","idStr":"3581720576836356"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Useful ","listText":"Useful ","text":"Useful","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375804473","repostId":"1184404050","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1816,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":375060432,"gmtCreate":1619259895526,"gmtModify":1631887252003,"author":{"id":"3581720576836356","authorId":"3581720576836356","name":"Clone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581720576836356","idStr":"3581720576836356"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375060432","repostId":"1166519043","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1460,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":175316047,"gmtCreate":1627006674189,"gmtModify":1631887251919,"author":{"id":"3581720576836356","authorId":"3581720576836356","name":"Clone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581720576836356","idStr":"3581720576836356"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Gd","listText":"Gd","text":"Gd","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/175316047","repostId":"2153060622","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1582,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164003345,"gmtCreate":1624159789787,"gmtModify":1631887251928,"author":{"id":"3581720576836356","authorId":"3581720576836356","name":"Clone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581720576836356","idStr":"3581720576836356"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164003345","repostId":"1183124175","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1446,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":190619625,"gmtCreate":1620615070667,"gmtModify":1631887251967,"author":{"id":"3581720576836356","authorId":"3581720576836356","name":"Clone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581720576836356","idStr":"3581720576836356"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Latest","listText":"Latest","text":"Latest","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/190619625","repostId":"2134686276","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2250,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
