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tiototo

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2021-08-17

Morgan Stanley should hire this guy as analyst instead

Micron Technology: Winter May Be Coming, But Not This Year... Nor The Next<blockquote>美光科技：冬天可能来了，但不是今年……也不是下一个</blockquote>

2021-08-05

Huat!

Robinhood's 126% post-IPO rally puts its founders within reach of a $1.4 billion stock payout<blockquote>Robinhood IPO 后上涨 126%，使其创始人有望获得 14 亿美元的股票派息</blockquote>

2021-07-28

Semicon stocks should have some legs to run further

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2021-07-28

Why would elon musk want to buy AVTI??

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2021-07-23

Follow the grandmaster. It wont go wrong. Lol

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2021-07-22

Why they left traces in the chat msg???

Gold Trader’s Chat Bragged About ‘How Easy’ It Is to Manipulate Prices<blockquote>黄金交易员的聊天吹嘘操纵价格“有多容易”</blockquote>

2021-07-08

But it dropped 7% yesterday..

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2021-07-08

I think it will take some time for investors to regain confidence in the china stocks listed in the US

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2021-07-05

Prepare for a sell down on tuesday [生气]

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2021-06-28

Online betting is the way to go lol

This Casino Company Has A Better 5-Year Return Than Alibaba, Amazon, Disney And Ford<blockquote>这家赌场公司的 5 年回报率优于阿里巴巴-SW、亚马逊、迪斯尼和福特</blockquote>

2021-06-28

Agree..

The Stock Market Hasn’t Been This Placid in Years<blockquote>股市多年来从未如此平静过</blockquote>

2021-06-27

Seems good for lomg terms investors [财迷]

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2021-06-23

Still relatively stronger compared to altcoins

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2021-06-18

Better safe than sorry. Endure guys!

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2021-06-17

Jd.com should have received more love from investors. Dun u all think so

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Stanley should hire this guy as analyst instead","listText":"Morgan Stanley should hire this guy as analyst instead","text":"Morgan Stanley should hire this guy as analyst instead","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/839481001","repostId":"1162723925","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1162723925","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629170609,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1162723925?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-17 11:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Micron Technology: Winter May Be Coming, But Not This Year... Nor The Next<blockquote>美光科技：冬天可能来了，但不是今年……也不是下一个</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162723925","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe Morgan Stanley downgrade of Memory chips was based on PC DRAM ASPs that represent just ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The Morgan Stanley downgrade of Memory chips was based on PC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.</li>  <li>The report addressed dropping PC sales, but failed to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year.</li>  <li>The report focuses on DRAM spot prices, instead of contract prices that make up 90% of supplier ASPs.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72f0a26068ce9a56688977e5a0dd9578\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>borisyankov/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>摩根士丹利下调存储芯片评级是基于PC DRAM平均售价，这些平均售价仅占DRAM总需求的15%。</li><li>该报告谈到了个人电脑销量的下降，但没有认识到每台个人电脑的DRAM含量每年都在增加。</li><li>该报告重点关注DRAM现货价格，而不是占供应商平均售价90%的合同价格。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>borisyankov/E+ 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley analysts downgraded Micron(NASDAQ:MU)to equal weight from overweight, in their industry report titled, “Memory - Winter Is Coming.\" MS cautioned of a coming cool down in the DRAM memory business that could lead to lower DRAM prices.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利分析师在其题为《内存--冬天来了》的行业报告中，将美光（纳斯达克股票代码：MU）的评级从跑赢大盘下调至同等权重。微软警告说，DRAM 内存业务即将降温，这可能会导致 DRAM 价格下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley noted that</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利指出，</blockquote></p><p>   “DRAM conditions are losing steam, and our inflection signposts suggest caution from here there’s been a change from mid-cycle to late cycle, and that this phase-change has historically meant a challenging backdrop for forward returns.”  Micron Technology’sstock had its worst single-day percentage decline since March 16, 2020, when it fell 19.8%. MU's stock price for the past year is shown in Chart 1, illustrating the sell-off in the past few days coupled with a drop of more than 25% since reaching a high on April 12, 2021.</p><p><blockquote>“DRAM 状况正在失去动力，我们的拐点路标表明，从周期中期到周期后期已经发生了变化，这种相位变化在历史上意味着远期回报的背景充满挑战。”美光科技的股票创下了自 2020 年 3 月 16 日以来的最大单日百分比跌幅，当时下跌了 19.8%。MU过去一年的股价如图1所示，说明了过去几天的抛售，以及自2021年4月12日触及高点以来下跌超过25%的情况。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea0b20556a40eb39c18b7aa1ed295e1c\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"416\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 1</p><p><blockquote>图表1</blockquote></p><p> This article presents data that refutes the underlying case presented by Morgan Stanley that worsening DRAM demand is contributing to an acceleration of the end of the current memory upcycle leading to the start of a down cycle in 1Q 2022.</p><p><blockquote>本文提供的数据反驳了摩根士丹利提出的基本案例，即不断恶化的DRAM需求正在加速当前内存上升周期的结束，从而导致2022年第一季度开始下降周期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Morgan Stanley’s Misinterpretation of Data#1 Small Percentage of PC DRAM</b></p><p><blockquote><b>摩根士丹利对数据的误解#1 个人电脑 DRAM 所占比例很小</b></blockquote></p><p> The first point is the emphasis by Morgan Stanley on PC DRAM price erosion as a harbinger for the downturn in the DRAM market. Why? Because PCs represent just 15% of the demand for DRAMs,as shown in Chart 2, according to our report entitled “<i>Hot ICs: A Market Analysis of Artificial Intelligence, 5G, CMOS Image Sensors, and Memory Chips.\"</i></p><p><blockquote>第一点是摩根士丹利强调个人电脑DRAM价格下降是DRAM市场低迷的先兆。为什么？因为PC仅占DRAM需求的15%，如图2所示，根据我们题为“<i>热门集成电路：人工智能、5G、CMOS 图像传感器和存储芯片的市场分析。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b40e66f4b73b27303075791c19fe36f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart 2</p><p><blockquote>图表2</blockquote></p><p> <b>#2 Increased DRAM content per PC</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#2 每台PC的DRAM容量增加</b></blockquote></p><p> The 15% DRAM demand for PCs is hardly enough to cause a stop in the memory cycle. But that's beside the point. Morgan Stanley overlooks the fact that DRAM content per PC increases each year even if the PC market has slowed.</p><p><blockquote>个人电脑15%的DRAM需求几乎不足以导致内存周期停止。但那是题外话。摩根士丹利忽略了这样一个事实，即即使个人电脑市场放缓，每台个人电脑的DRAM含量每年都在增加。</blockquote></p><p> Chart 3 shows that PC unit shipments between 2015 and 2023. Indeed, my forecast shows that PCs will decrease in 2022 and 2023, but the decrease is due to a normalization of PC demand following the extraordinary demand for PCs during the work/study/stay-at-home orders associated with the COVID pandemic in 2020 that carried over into 2021.</p><p><blockquote>图 3 显示了 2015 年至 2023 年间 PC 单位出货量。事实上，我的预测显示个人电脑将在2022年和2023年下降，但下降是由于个人电脑需求正常化，此前2020年与COVID疫情相关的工作/学习/居家订单期间对个人电脑的异常需求一直持续到2021年。</blockquote></p><p> Prior to 2020, the PC market was decreasing, and I anticipate a corresponding return normalcy with a decrease of a few percent per year in 2022 and 2023. I estimate that DRAM content per PC will increase from 5.5 GB in 2015 to 14 GB in 2023. That’s an increase of 2.5 times during this period.</p><p><blockquote>2020 年之前，个人电脑市场正在下降，我预计 2022 年和 2023 年回报率将达到相应的正常水平，每年下降几个百分点。我估计每台电脑的DRAM内容将从2015年的5.5 GB增加到2023年的14 GB。这一时期增长了 2.5 倍。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732cd4948d7209d76ccb4f7628560ab\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 3</p><p><blockquote>图表3</blockquote></p><p> Thus, although PC units will decrease, DRAM content will increase during the next two years. But factoring in the increase in DRAM content per PC, we see in Chart 4 a much different growth in DRAMs.</p><p><blockquote>因此，尽管PC单元将减少，但DRAM含量将在未来两年内增加。但是考虑到每台PC的DRAM含量的增加，我们在图4中看到DRAM的增长截然不同。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c21d24f41f7f77bc00c62ed82b44f62\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart 4</p><p><blockquote>图表4</blockquote></p><p> <b>#3 Spot ASPs are Different than Contract ASPs</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#3 现货平均售价不同于合约平均售价</b></blockquote></p><p> Chart 5 shows DRAM data comparison for Spot ASPs vs Contract ASPs. The entire rationale for the TrendForce and Morgan Stanley reports is the drop in spot prices in 2021, and the resultant end of the current memory cycle.</p><p><blockquote>图5显示了现货ASP与合同ASP的DRAM数据比较。TrendForce 和摩根士丹利报告的全部理由是 2021 年现货价格下跌，以及当前内存周期的结束。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5a2774dcaff2d53edd141e0cc1e2d13\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart 5</p><p><blockquote>图表5</blockquote></p><p> Why they chose the drop in spot prices as the catalyst for the end of the cycle vs. the increase in contract prices as a catalyst for strong memory growth is irrational and illogical.</p><p><blockquote>为什么他们选择现货价格下跌作为周期结束的催化剂，而选择合同价格上涨作为内存强劲增长的催化剂，这是非理性和不合逻辑的。</blockquote></p><p> Importantly, there's no correlation between PC sales (Chart 3) and prices (Chart 5). In Chart 3, PC sales were at their lowest period (2017 and 2018) while ASPs were at their highest. Thus, there's an inverse relationship between PC sales and ASPs, not a direct relationship that would add credibility to the MS forecast.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是，个人电脑销量（图表3）和价格（图表5）之间没有相关性。在图表3中，个人电脑销量处于最低水平（2017年和2018年），而平均售价处于最高水平。因此，个人电脑销量和平均售价之间存在反比关系，而不是增加微软预测可信度的直接关系。</blockquote></p><p> <b>#4 Spot ASPs Are a Function of Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD Factor)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#4 Spot ASP是恐惧、不确定性和怀疑的函数（FUD因子）</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Also note that Chart 5 shows that spot and contract prices tracked between October 2016 and the end of 2000. A bifurcation in spot vs contract prices then took place in which spot prices escalated and then collapsed, while contract prices continued a strong growth with no abatement.</p><p><blockquote>另请注意，图表 5 显示了 2016 年 10 月至 2000 年底期间跟踪的现货和合约价格。现货价格与合约价格随后出现分叉，现货价格先涨后跌，而合约价格则持续强劲增长，且有增无减。</blockquote></p><p> This bifurcation is clearly the result of the “semiconductor shortage” in which prices on the spot market have risen as a result of a perceived shortage of memory that has been interpreted as impacting not only automobiles, but every application using chips.</p><p><blockquote>这种分叉显然是 “半导体短缺 ”的结果，现货市场的价格上涨是因为人们认为存储器短缺，这不仅影响了汽车，还影响了所有使用芯片的应用。</blockquote></p><p> TrendForce attempted to explain the shortage is due to stockpiling by PC suppliers, and I agree, which I also attributed to the DRAM collapse in 2000.I discussed stockpiling and hoarding as a major factor in 2000 and 2020, in a June 24, 2021 Semiconductor Deep Dive Marketplace newsletter articlehere.</p><p><blockquote>TrendForce 试图解释短缺是由于 PC 供应商的库存造成的，我同意，我也将其归因于 2000 年 DRAM 崩溃。我在 2021 年 6 月 24 日的一篇半导体深度潜水市场时事通讯文章此处。</blockquote></p><p> However, TrendForce’s statement in its press release of downward pressure on price hikes runs counter to the data in Chart 5 that contract prices have continued to increase unabated.</p><p><blockquote>然而，TrendForce 在新闻稿中关于价格上涨下行压力的声明与图表 5 中合同价格持续上涨的数据背道而驰。</blockquote></p><p>   “Regarding the contract market, PC OEMs currently carry relatively high levels of DRAM inventory because they substantially stocked up on PC DRAM beforehand in anticipation of an upcoming shortage. Not only has PC OEMs’ high DRAM inventory put downward pressure on possible price hikes for PC DRAM, but the gradual lifting of COVID-related restrictions in Europe and the US will also likely lower the overall demand for notebook computers, thereby pulling down the overall demand for PC DRAM.”  Spot prices are based on what a buyer is willing to pay for an item with an undercurrent of fear, uncertainty, and doubt. For example, in my June 19, 2021, SA article entitled \"Micron Technology: No Shortage, Strong Growth, Period,\" from a commenter:</p><p><blockquote>“在合同市场方面，个人电脑原始设备制造商目前的 DRAM 库存水平相对较高，因为他们预计即将到来的短缺会提前大量储备了个人电脑 DRAM。个人电脑原始设备制造商的高 DRAM 库存不仅对个人电脑 DRAM 可能的涨价构成下行压力，而且欧美与 COVID 相关限制的逐步取消也可能降低笔记本电脑的整体需求，从而拉低个人电脑 DRAM 的整体需求。”现货价格是基于买家愿意为一件带有恐惧、不确定性和怀疑的商品支付的价格。例如，在我于 2021 年 6 月 19 日发表的题为“美光科技：不短缺、强劲增长、时期”的 SA 文章中，一位评论者写道：</blockquote></p><p>   \"And, to lend credence to your microcontroller hypothesis, we recently were told that we would not be able to get a $3 micro for one of our existing products. I don't know if it was a direct result of the Renesas fire or not. But when we looked at the spot market we were quoted $81 for that part (that's not a typo). So now we have to re-design that board to use a different part.\"  About 10 years ago, I was an \"expert witness\" in a solar cell litigation case, and the basis of the complaint was the fact that spot silicon prices increased from $35 per metric ton to more than $500 per metric ton in a period of a few weeks because of silicon shortages. Once silicon manufacturers started making more silicon, prices dropped.</p><p><blockquote>“而且，为了证实您的微控制器假设，我们最近被告知，我们将无法为我们现有的产品之一获得 3 美元的微控制器。我不知道这是否是瑞萨火灾的直接结果。但当我们查看现货市场时，该零件的报价为 81 美元（这不是错别字）。所以现在我们必须重新设计该板以使用不同的部件。”大约10年前，我是一起太阳能电池诉讼案的“专家证人”，投诉的依据是硅短缺导致硅现货价格在几周内从每公吨35美元上涨到每公吨500美元以上。一旦硅制造商开始生产更多的硅，价格就会下降。</blockquote></p><p> Both these examples illustrate that spot prices have no direct bearing on real (contract) prices, and are often transitory.</p><p><blockquote>这两个例子都表明，现货价格对实际（合同）价格没有直接影响，而且通常是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p> Back to the erroneous thesis that a DRAM cycle will end based on spot prices, I show supportive data in Chart 6 that suggests their data is wrong. This chart shows DRAM ASPs as reported directly from Micron, Samsung Electronics(OTC:SSNLF)and SK Hynix(OTC:HXSCL).</p><p><blockquote>回到DRAM周期将基于现货价格结束的错误论点，我在图6中显示了支持性数据，表明他们的数据是错误的。该图表显示了直接从美光、三星电子（场外交易代码：SSNLF）和SK海力士（场外交易代码：HXSCL）报告的DRAM平均售价。</blockquote></p><p> Comparing Chart 5 and Chart 6, it is clear that data directly from the DRAM suppliers matches the positive contract prices and not spot prices. Readers must remember also that spot prices represent only 10% of the DRAM prices paid by customers. Contract prices represent 90% of actual prices.</p><p><blockquote>比较图表5和图表6，很明显，直接来自DRAM供应商的数据匹配的是正合同价格而不是现货价格。读者还必须记住，现货价格仅占客户支付的DRAM价格的10%。合约价格占实际价格的90%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d56577da5391c86374739262f773c7f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 6</p><p><blockquote>图表6</blockquote></p><p> Chart 7 shows memory ASPs on a three-month moving average from the SIA (Semiconductor Industry Association). Again, comparing Chart 7 with Chart 5, it is clear that the contract prices are the more valid metric.</p><p><blockquote>图表 7 显示了 SIA（半导体行业协会）三个月移动平均值上的存储器平均售价。同样，比较图表7和图表5，很明显合同价格是更有效的指标。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be8f41d833e46a0145982559a7e23732\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 7</p><p><blockquote>图表7</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investor Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者要点</b></blockquote></p><p> The recent press release from TrendForce and a report a day later by Morgan Stanley is based in data that's irrational and illogical. Their analysis is based on:</p><p><blockquote>TrendForce最近的新闻稿和摩根士丹利一天后的报告都是基于非理性和不合逻辑的数据。他们的分析基于：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>PC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.</li>  <li>A drop in PC sales, which have been in decline and only increased due to the pandemic, but low PC sales correlate with high ASPs (Charts 3 and 5).</li>  <li>Failure to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year and that metric shows no abatement in growth.</li>  <li>DRAM spot prices instead of contract prices, the latter of which correlate with reporting data supplied by DRAM manufacturer.</li> </ul> Strong demand for memory chips will continue through 2023 as supply is held in check not by shortages but judicious capex spend. The strong demand for memory chips such as 5G, servers, and EVs present a continuing tailwind for Micron Technology.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>PC DRAM ASP仅占DRAM总需求的15%。</li><li>个人电脑销量下降，一直在下降，只是由于疫情而增加，但低个人电脑销量与高平均售价相关（图3和图5）。</li><li>未能认识到每台PC的DRAM含量每年都在增加，并且该指标显示增长没有减少。</li><li>DRAM现货价格而不是合同价格，后者与DRAM制造商提供的报告数据相关。</li></ul>对存储芯片的强劲需求将持续到 2023 年，因为供应不是受到短缺的控制，而是受到合理的资本支出的控制。5G、服务器和电动汽车等存储芯片的强劲需求为美光科技带来了持续的推动力。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Micron Technology: Winter May Be Coming, But Not This Year... Nor The Next<blockquote>美光科技：冬天可能来了，但不是今年……也不是下一个</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicron Technology: Winter May Be Coming, But Not This Year... Nor The Next<blockquote>美光科技：冬天可能来了，但不是今年……也不是下一个</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-17 11:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The Morgan Stanley downgrade of Memory chips was based on PC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.</li>  <li>The report addressed dropping PC sales, but failed to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year.</li>  <li>The report focuses on DRAM spot prices, instead of contract prices that make up 90% of supplier ASPs.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72f0a26068ce9a56688977e5a0dd9578\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>borisyankov/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>摩根士丹利下调存储芯片评级是基于PC DRAM平均售价，这些平均售价仅占DRAM总需求的15%。</li><li>该报告谈到了个人电脑销量的下降，但没有认识到每台个人电脑的DRAM含量每年都在增加。</li><li>该报告重点关注DRAM现货价格，而不是占供应商平均售价90%的合同价格。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>borisyankov/E+ 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley analysts downgraded Micron(NASDAQ:MU)to equal weight from overweight, in their industry report titled, “Memory - Winter Is Coming.\" MS cautioned of a coming cool down in the DRAM memory business that could lead to lower DRAM prices.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利分析师在其题为《内存--冬天来了》的行业报告中，将美光（纳斯达克股票代码：MU）的评级从跑赢大盘下调至同等权重。微软警告说，DRAM 内存业务即将降温，这可能会导致 DRAM 价格下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley noted that</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利指出，</blockquote></p><p>   “DRAM conditions are losing steam, and our inflection signposts suggest caution from here there’s been a change from mid-cycle to late cycle, and that this phase-change has historically meant a challenging backdrop for forward returns.”  Micron Technology’sstock had its worst single-day percentage decline since March 16, 2020, when it fell 19.8%. MU's stock price for the past year is shown in Chart 1, illustrating the sell-off in the past few days coupled with a drop of more than 25% since reaching a high on April 12, 2021.</p><p><blockquote>“DRAM 状况正在失去动力，我们的拐点路标表明，从周期中期到周期后期已经发生了变化，这种相位变化在历史上意味着远期回报的背景充满挑战。”美光科技的股票创下了自 2020 年 3 月 16 日以来的最大单日百分比跌幅，当时下跌了 19.8%。MU过去一年的股价如图1所示，说明了过去几天的抛售，以及自2021年4月12日触及高点以来下跌超过25%的情况。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea0b20556a40eb39c18b7aa1ed295e1c\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"416\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 1</p><p><blockquote>图表1</blockquote></p><p> This article presents data that refutes the underlying case presented by Morgan Stanley that worsening DRAM demand is contributing to an acceleration of the end of the current memory upcycle leading to the start of a down cycle in 1Q 2022.</p><p><blockquote>本文提供的数据反驳了摩根士丹利提出的基本案例，即不断恶化的DRAM需求正在加速当前内存上升周期的结束，从而导致2022年第一季度开始下降周期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Morgan Stanley’s Misinterpretation of Data#1 Small Percentage of PC DRAM</b></p><p><blockquote><b>摩根士丹利对数据的误解#1 个人电脑 DRAM 所占比例很小</b></blockquote></p><p> The first point is the emphasis by Morgan Stanley on PC DRAM price erosion as a harbinger for the downturn in the DRAM market. Why? Because PCs represent just 15% of the demand for DRAMs,as shown in Chart 2, according to our report entitled “<i>Hot ICs: A Market Analysis of Artificial Intelligence, 5G, CMOS Image Sensors, and Memory Chips.\"</i></p><p><blockquote>第一点是摩根士丹利强调个人电脑DRAM价格下降是DRAM市场低迷的先兆。为什么？因为PC仅占DRAM需求的15%，如图2所示，根据我们题为“<i>热门集成电路：人工智能、5G、CMOS 图像传感器和存储芯片的市场分析。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b40e66f4b73b27303075791c19fe36f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart 2</p><p><blockquote>图表2</blockquote></p><p> <b>#2 Increased DRAM content per PC</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#2 每台PC的DRAM容量增加</b></blockquote></p><p> The 15% DRAM demand for PCs is hardly enough to cause a stop in the memory cycle. But that's beside the point. Morgan Stanley overlooks the fact that DRAM content per PC increases each year even if the PC market has slowed.</p><p><blockquote>个人电脑15%的DRAM需求几乎不足以导致内存周期停止。但那是题外话。摩根士丹利忽略了这样一个事实，即即使个人电脑市场放缓，每台个人电脑的DRAM含量每年都在增加。</blockquote></p><p> Chart 3 shows that PC unit shipments between 2015 and 2023. Indeed, my forecast shows that PCs will decrease in 2022 and 2023, but the decrease is due to a normalization of PC demand following the extraordinary demand for PCs during the work/study/stay-at-home orders associated with the COVID pandemic in 2020 that carried over into 2021.</p><p><blockquote>图 3 显示了 2015 年至 2023 年间 PC 单位出货量。事实上，我的预测显示个人电脑将在2022年和2023年下降，但下降是由于个人电脑需求正常化，此前2020年与COVID疫情相关的工作/学习/居家订单期间对个人电脑的异常需求一直持续到2021年。</blockquote></p><p> Prior to 2020, the PC market was decreasing, and I anticipate a corresponding return normalcy with a decrease of a few percent per year in 2022 and 2023. I estimate that DRAM content per PC will increase from 5.5 GB in 2015 to 14 GB in 2023. That’s an increase of 2.5 times during this period.</p><p><blockquote>2020 年之前，个人电脑市场正在下降，我预计 2022 年和 2023 年回报率将达到相应的正常水平，每年下降几个百分点。我估计每台电脑的DRAM内容将从2015年的5.5 GB增加到2023年的14 GB。这一时期增长了 2.5 倍。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732cd4948d7209d76ccb4f7628560ab\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 3</p><p><blockquote>图表3</blockquote></p><p> Thus, although PC units will decrease, DRAM content will increase during the next two years. But factoring in the increase in DRAM content per PC, we see in Chart 4 a much different growth in DRAMs.</p><p><blockquote>因此，尽管PC单元将减少，但DRAM含量将在未来两年内增加。但是考虑到每台PC的DRAM含量的增加，我们在图4中看到DRAM的增长截然不同。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c21d24f41f7f77bc00c62ed82b44f62\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart 4</p><p><blockquote>图表4</blockquote></p><p> <b>#3 Spot ASPs are Different than Contract ASPs</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#3 现货平均售价不同于合约平均售价</b></blockquote></p><p> Chart 5 shows DRAM data comparison for Spot ASPs vs Contract ASPs. The entire rationale for the TrendForce and Morgan Stanley reports is the drop in spot prices in 2021, and the resultant end of the current memory cycle.</p><p><blockquote>图5显示了现货ASP与合同ASP的DRAM数据比较。TrendForce 和摩根士丹利报告的全部理由是 2021 年现货价格下跌，以及当前内存周期的结束。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5a2774dcaff2d53edd141e0cc1e2d13\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart 5</p><p><blockquote>图表5</blockquote></p><p> Why they chose the drop in spot prices as the catalyst for the end of the cycle vs. the increase in contract prices as a catalyst for strong memory growth is irrational and illogical.</p><p><blockquote>为什么他们选择现货价格下跌作为周期结束的催化剂，而选择合同价格上涨作为内存强劲增长的催化剂，这是非理性和不合逻辑的。</blockquote></p><p> Importantly, there's no correlation between PC sales (Chart 3) and prices (Chart 5). In Chart 3, PC sales were at their lowest period (2017 and 2018) while ASPs were at their highest. Thus, there's an inverse relationship between PC sales and ASPs, not a direct relationship that would add credibility to the MS forecast.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是，个人电脑销量（图表3）和价格（图表5）之间没有相关性。在图表3中，个人电脑销量处于最低水平（2017年和2018年），而平均售价处于最高水平。因此，个人电脑销量和平均售价之间存在反比关系，而不是增加微软预测可信度的直接关系。</blockquote></p><p> <b>#4 Spot ASPs Are a Function of Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD Factor)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#4 Spot ASP是恐惧、不确定性和怀疑的函数（FUD因子）</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Also note that Chart 5 shows that spot and contract prices tracked between October 2016 and the end of 2000. A bifurcation in spot vs contract prices then took place in which spot prices escalated and then collapsed, while contract prices continued a strong growth with no abatement.</p><p><blockquote>另请注意，图表 5 显示了 2016 年 10 月至 2000 年底期间跟踪的现货和合约价格。现货价格与合约价格随后出现分叉，现货价格先涨后跌，而合约价格则持续强劲增长，且有增无减。</blockquote></p><p> This bifurcation is clearly the result of the “semiconductor shortage” in which prices on the spot market have risen as a result of a perceived shortage of memory that has been interpreted as impacting not only automobiles, but every application using chips.</p><p><blockquote>这种分叉显然是 “半导体短缺 ”的结果，现货市场的价格上涨是因为人们认为存储器短缺，这不仅影响了汽车，还影响了所有使用芯片的应用。</blockquote></p><p> TrendForce attempted to explain the shortage is due to stockpiling by PC suppliers, and I agree, which I also attributed to the DRAM collapse in 2000.I discussed stockpiling and hoarding as a major factor in 2000 and 2020, in a June 24, 2021 Semiconductor Deep Dive Marketplace newsletter articlehere.</p><p><blockquote>TrendForce 试图解释短缺是由于 PC 供应商的库存造成的，我同意，我也将其归因于 2000 年 DRAM 崩溃。我在 2021 年 6 月 24 日的一篇半导体深度潜水市场时事通讯文章此处。</blockquote></p><p> However, TrendForce’s statement in its press release of downward pressure on price hikes runs counter to the data in Chart 5 that contract prices have continued to increase unabated.</p><p><blockquote>然而，TrendForce 在新闻稿中关于价格上涨下行压力的声明与图表 5 中合同价格持续上涨的数据背道而驰。</blockquote></p><p>   “Regarding the contract market, PC OEMs currently carry relatively high levels of DRAM inventory because they substantially stocked up on PC DRAM beforehand in anticipation of an upcoming shortage. Not only has PC OEMs’ high DRAM inventory put downward pressure on possible price hikes for PC DRAM, but the gradual lifting of COVID-related restrictions in Europe and the US will also likely lower the overall demand for notebook computers, thereby pulling down the overall demand for PC DRAM.”  Spot prices are based on what a buyer is willing to pay for an item with an undercurrent of fear, uncertainty, and doubt. For example, in my June 19, 2021, SA article entitled \"Micron Technology: No Shortage, Strong Growth, Period,\" from a commenter:</p><p><blockquote>“在合同市场方面，个人电脑原始设备制造商目前的 DRAM 库存水平相对较高，因为他们预计即将到来的短缺会提前大量储备了个人电脑 DRAM。个人电脑原始设备制造商的高 DRAM 库存不仅对个人电脑 DRAM 可能的涨价构成下行压力，而且欧美与 COVID 相关限制的逐步取消也可能降低笔记本电脑的整体需求，从而拉低个人电脑 DRAM 的整体需求。”现货价格是基于买家愿意为一件带有恐惧、不确定性和怀疑的商品支付的价格。例如，在我于 2021 年 6 月 19 日发表的题为“美光科技：不短缺、强劲增长、时期”的 SA 文章中，一位评论者写道：</blockquote></p><p>   \"And, to lend credence to your microcontroller hypothesis, we recently were told that we would not be able to get a $3 micro for one of our existing products. I don't know if it was a direct result of the Renesas fire or not. But when we looked at the spot market we were quoted $81 for that part (that's not a typo). So now we have to re-design that board to use a different part.\"  About 10 years ago, I was an \"expert witness\" in a solar cell litigation case, and the basis of the complaint was the fact that spot silicon prices increased from $35 per metric ton to more than $500 per metric ton in a period of a few weeks because of silicon shortages. Once silicon manufacturers started making more silicon, prices dropped.</p><p><blockquote>“而且，为了证实您的微控制器假设，我们最近被告知，我们将无法为我们现有的产品之一获得 3 美元的微控制器。我不知道这是否是瑞萨火灾的直接结果。但当我们查看现货市场时，该零件的报价为 81 美元（这不是错别字）。所以现在我们必须重新设计该板以使用不同的部件。”大约10年前，我是一起太阳能电池诉讼案的“专家证人”，投诉的依据是硅短缺导致硅现货价格在几周内从每公吨35美元上涨到每公吨500美元以上。一旦硅制造商开始生产更多的硅，价格就会下降。</blockquote></p><p> Both these examples illustrate that spot prices have no direct bearing on real (contract) prices, and are often transitory.</p><p><blockquote>这两个例子都表明，现货价格对实际（合同）价格没有直接影响，而且通常是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p> Back to the erroneous thesis that a DRAM cycle will end based on spot prices, I show supportive data in Chart 6 that suggests their data is wrong. This chart shows DRAM ASPs as reported directly from Micron, Samsung Electronics(OTC:SSNLF)and SK Hynix(OTC:HXSCL).</p><p><blockquote>回到DRAM周期将基于现货价格结束的错误论点，我在图6中显示了支持性数据，表明他们的数据是错误的。该图表显示了直接从美光、三星电子（场外交易代码：SSNLF）和SK海力士（场外交易代码：HXSCL）报告的DRAM平均售价。</blockquote></p><p> Comparing Chart 5 and Chart 6, it is clear that data directly from the DRAM suppliers matches the positive contract prices and not spot prices. Readers must remember also that spot prices represent only 10% of the DRAM prices paid by customers. Contract prices represent 90% of actual prices.</p><p><blockquote>比较图表5和图表6，很明显，直接来自DRAM供应商的数据匹配的是正合同价格而不是现货价格。读者还必须记住，现货价格仅占客户支付的DRAM价格的10%。合约价格占实际价格的90%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d56577da5391c86374739262f773c7f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 6</p><p><blockquote>图表6</blockquote></p><p> Chart 7 shows memory ASPs on a three-month moving average from the SIA (Semiconductor Industry Association). Again, comparing Chart 7 with Chart 5, it is clear that the contract prices are the more valid metric.</p><p><blockquote>图表 7 显示了 SIA（半导体行业协会）三个月移动平均值上的存储器平均售价。同样，比较图表7和图表5，很明显合同价格是更有效的指标。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be8f41d833e46a0145982559a7e23732\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 7</p><p><blockquote>图表7</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investor Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者要点</b></blockquote></p><p> The recent press release from TrendForce and a report a day later by Morgan Stanley is based in data that's irrational and illogical. Their analysis is based on:</p><p><blockquote>TrendForce最近的新闻稿和摩根士丹利一天后的报告都是基于非理性和不合逻辑的数据。他们的分析基于：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>PC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.</li>  <li>A drop in PC sales, which have been in decline and only increased due to the pandemic, but low PC sales correlate with high ASPs (Charts 3 and 5).</li>  <li>Failure to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year and that metric shows no abatement in growth.</li>  <li>DRAM spot prices instead of contract prices, the latter of which correlate with reporting data supplied by DRAM manufacturer.</li> </ul> Strong demand for memory chips will continue through 2023 as supply is held in check not by shortages but judicious capex spend. The strong demand for memory chips such as 5G, servers, and EVs present a continuing tailwind for Micron Technology.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>PC DRAM ASP仅占DRAM总需求的15%。</li><li>个人电脑销量下降，一直在下降，只是由于疫情而增加，但低个人电脑销量与高平均售价相关（图3和图5）。</li><li>未能认识到每台PC的DRAM含量每年都在增加，并且该指标显示增长没有减少。</li><li>DRAM现货价格而不是合同价格，后者与DRAM制造商提供的报告数据相关。</li></ul>对存储芯片的强劲需求将持续到 2023 年，因为供应不是受到短缺的控制，而是受到合理的资本支出的控制。5G、服务器和电动汽车等存储芯片的强劲需求为美光科技带来了持续的推动力。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4449857-micron-technology-winter-may-be-coming-but-not-this-year-nor-the-next\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MU":"美光科技"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4449857-micron-technology-winter-may-be-coming-but-not-this-year-nor-the-next","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162723925","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe Morgan Stanley downgrade of Memory chips was based on PC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.\nThe report addressed dropping PC sales, but failed to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year.\nThe report focuses on DRAM spot prices, instead of contract prices that make up 90% of supplier ASPs.\n\nborisyankov/E+ via Getty Images\nMorgan Stanley analysts downgraded Micron(NASDAQ:MU)to equal weight from overweight, in their industry report titled, “Memory - Winter Is Coming.\" MS cautioned of a coming cool down in the DRAM memory business that could lead to lower DRAM prices.\nMorgan Stanley noted that\n\n “DRAM conditions are losing steam, and our inflection signposts suggest caution from here there’s been a change from mid-cycle to late cycle, and that this phase-change has historically meant a challenging backdrop for forward returns.”\n\nMicron Technology’sstock had its worst single-day percentage decline since March 16, 2020, when it fell 19.8%. MU's stock price for the past year is shown in Chart 1, illustrating the sell-off in the past few days coupled with a drop of more than 25% since reaching a high on April 12, 2021.\n\nChart 1\nThis article presents data that refutes the underlying case presented by Morgan Stanley that worsening DRAM demand is contributing to an acceleration of the end of the current memory upcycle leading to the start of a down cycle in 1Q 2022.\nMorgan Stanley’s Misinterpretation of Data#1 Small Percentage of PC DRAM\nThe first point is the emphasis by Morgan Stanley on PC DRAM price erosion as a harbinger for the downturn in the DRAM market. Why? Because PCs represent just 15% of the demand for DRAMs,as shown in Chart 2, according to our report entitled “Hot ICs: A Market Analysis of Artificial Intelligence, 5G, CMOS Image Sensors, and Memory Chips.\"\nChart 2\n#2 Increased DRAM content per PC\nThe 15% DRAM demand for PCs is hardly enough to cause a stop in the memory cycle. But that's beside the point. Morgan Stanley overlooks the fact that DRAM content per PC increases each year even if the PC market has slowed.\nChart 3 shows that PC unit shipments between 2015 and 2023. Indeed, my forecast shows that PCs will decrease in 2022 and 2023, but the decrease is due to a normalization of PC demand following the extraordinary demand for PCs during the work/study/stay-at-home orders associated with the COVID pandemic in 2020 that carried over into 2021.\nPrior to 2020, the PC market was decreasing, and I anticipate a corresponding return normalcy with a decrease of a few percent per year in 2022 and 2023. I estimate that DRAM content per PC will increase from 5.5 GB in 2015 to 14 GB in 2023. That’s an increase of 2.5 times during this period.\n\nChart 3\nThus, although PC units will decrease, DRAM content will increase during the next two years. But factoring in the increase in DRAM content per PC, we see in Chart 4 a much different growth in DRAMs.\nChart 4\n#3 Spot ASPs are Different than Contract ASPs\nChart 5 shows DRAM data comparison for Spot ASPs vs Contract ASPs. The entire rationale for the TrendForce and Morgan Stanley reports is the drop in spot prices in 2021, and the resultant end of the current memory cycle.\nChart 5\nWhy they chose the drop in spot prices as the catalyst for the end of the cycle vs. the increase in contract prices as a catalyst for strong memory growth is irrational and illogical.\nImportantly, there's no correlation between PC sales (Chart 3) and prices (Chart 5). In Chart 3, PC sales were at their lowest period (2017 and 2018) while ASPs were at their highest. Thus, there's an inverse relationship between PC sales and ASPs, not a direct relationship that would add credibility to the MS forecast.\n#4 Spot ASPs Are a Function of Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD Factor)\nAlso note that Chart 5 shows that spot and contract prices tracked between October 2016 and the end of 2000. A bifurcation in spot vs contract prices then took place in which spot prices escalated and then collapsed, while contract prices continued a strong growth with no abatement.\nThis bifurcation is clearly the result of the “semiconductor shortage” in which prices on the spot market have risen as a result of a perceived shortage of memory that has been interpreted as impacting not only automobiles, but every application using chips.\nTrendForce attempted to explain the shortage is due to stockpiling by PC suppliers, and I agree, which I also attributed to the DRAM collapse in 2000.I discussed stockpiling and hoarding as a major factor in 2000 and 2020, in a June 24, 2021 Semiconductor Deep Dive Marketplace newsletter articlehere.\nHowever, TrendForce’s statement in its press release of downward pressure on price hikes runs counter to the data in Chart 5 that contract prices have continued to increase unabated.\n\n “Regarding the contract market, PC OEMs currently carry relatively high levels of DRAM inventory because they substantially stocked up on PC DRAM beforehand in anticipation of an upcoming shortage. Not only has PC OEMs’ high DRAM inventory put downward pressure on possible price hikes for PC DRAM, but the gradual lifting of COVID-related restrictions in Europe and the US will also likely lower the overall demand for notebook computers, thereby pulling down the overall demand for PC DRAM.”\n\nSpot prices are based on what a buyer is willing to pay for an item with an undercurrent of fear, uncertainty, and doubt. For example, in my June 19, 2021, SA article entitled \"Micron Technology: No Shortage, Strong Growth, Period,\" from a commenter:\n\n \"And, to lend credence to your microcontroller hypothesis, we recently were told that we would not be able to get a $3 micro for one of our existing products. I don't know if it was a direct result of the Renesas fire or not. But when we looked at the spot market we were quoted $81 for that part (that's not a typo). So now we have to re-design that board to use a different part.\"\n\nAbout 10 years ago, I was an \"expert witness\" in a solar cell litigation case, and the basis of the complaint was the fact that spot silicon prices increased from $35 per metric ton to more than $500 per metric ton in a period of a few weeks because of silicon shortages. Once silicon manufacturers started making more silicon, prices dropped.\nBoth these examples illustrate that spot prices have no direct bearing on real (contract) prices, and are often transitory.\nBack to the erroneous thesis that a DRAM cycle will end based on spot prices, I show supportive data in Chart 6 that suggests their data is wrong. This chart shows DRAM ASPs as reported directly from Micron, Samsung Electronics(OTC:SSNLF)and SK Hynix(OTC:HXSCL).\nComparing Chart 5 and Chart 6, it is clear that data directly from the DRAM suppliers matches the positive contract prices and not spot prices. Readers must remember also that spot prices represent only 10% of the DRAM prices paid by customers. Contract prices represent 90% of actual prices.\n\nChart 6\nChart 7 shows memory ASPs on a three-month moving average from the SIA (Semiconductor Industry Association). Again, comparing Chart 7 with Chart 5, it is clear that the contract prices are the more valid metric.\n\nChart 7\nInvestor Takeaway\nThe recent press release from TrendForce and a report a day later by Morgan Stanley is based in data that's irrational and illogical. Their analysis is based on:\n\nPC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.\nA drop in PC sales, which have been in decline and only increased due to the pandemic, but low PC sales correlate with high ASPs (Charts 3 and 5).\nFailure to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year and that metric shows no abatement in growth.\nDRAM spot prices instead of contract prices, the latter of which correlate with reporting data supplied by DRAM manufacturer.\n\nStrong demand for memory chips will continue through 2023 as supply is held in check not by shortages but judicious capex spend. The strong demand for memory chips such as 5G, servers, and EVs present a continuing tailwind for Micron Technology.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1742,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":899016355,"gmtCreate":1628141903777,"gmtModify":1631889458340,"author":{"id":"3581681532128922","authorId":"3581681532128922","name":"tiototo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23c32a08fbf6fc88a1bda4f6b4f99ddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581681532128922","authorIdStr":"3581681532128922"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Huat!","listText":"Huat!","text":"Huat!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/899016355","repostId":"1183934326","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183934326","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628140836,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1183934326?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-05 13:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Robinhood's 126% post-IPO rally puts its founders within reach of a $1.4 billion stock payout<blockquote>Robinhood IPO 后上涨 126%，使其创始人有望获得 14 亿美元的股票派息</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183934326","media":"Markets Insider","summary":"Robinhood co-founders Baiju Bhatt (left) and Vlad Tenev.\n\nRobinhood's post IPO rally of as much as 1","content":"<p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ebea8ef44433d4792daec9801d33fc7\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Robinhood co-founders Baiju Bhatt (left) and Vlad Tenev.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Robinhood 联合创始人 Baiju Bhatt（左）和 Vlad Tenev。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Robinhood's post IPO rally of as much as 126% put its founders within reach of a $1.4 billion payout.</b></li>  <li><b>Co-founders Vlad Tenev and Baiju Bhatt stand to receive 13.8 million shares if Robinhood's stock price closes above $101.50 by 2025.</b></li>  <li><b>Shares of Robinhood hit an intra-day high of $85 on Wednesday, just 19% below the award price.</b></li> </ul> A wild post-IPO rally in shares of&nbsp;Robinhood&nbsp;this week put its co-founders within reach of a $1.4 billion stock payout, according to the&nbsp;company's S-1 filing.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>Robinhood IPO 后股价上涨高达 126%，使其创始人有望获得 14 亿美元的派息。</b></li><li><b>如果 Robinhood 的股价到 2025 年收于 101.50 美元以上，联合创始人 Vlad Tenev 和 Baiju Bhatt 将获得 1380 万股股票。</b></li><li><b>Robinhood 股价周三触及 85 美元的盘中高点，仅比发行价低 19%。</b></li></ul>根据该公司提交的 S-1 文件，Robinhood 股价本周在 IPO 后大幅上涨，使其联合创始人有望获得 14 亿美元的股票派息。</blockquote></p><p> Vlad Tenev and Baiju Bhatt&nbsp;stand to each receive 13.8 million shares&nbsp;if Robinhood's stock price closes above $101.50 by 2025 for an extended period of time. Shares of Robinhood hit an intra-day high of $85 on Wednesday, just 19% below the price needed for Tenev and Bhatt to unlock their stock award.</p><p><blockquote>如果 Robinhood 的股价在 2025 年之前长期收于 101.50 美元以上，Vlad Tenev 和 Baiju Bhatt 将各获得 1380 万股股票。Robinhood 股价周三触及 85 美元的盘中高点，仅比 Tenev 和 Bhatt 解锁股票奖励所需的价格低 19%。</blockquote></p><p> The $101.50 price hurdle is based on the average of the daily volume weighted average of Robinhood's stock price for each day over a consecutive 60-day trading period.</p><p><blockquote>101.50 美元的价格障碍是基于连续 60 天交易期内每天 Robinhood 股票价格的每日成交量加权平均值的平均值。</blockquote></p><p> Robinhood stumbled in its IPO debut last week,with shares falling as much as 12%,but the stock has since staged an impressive rebound and recovered all of its losses and then some. The online trading app staged a&nbsp;two-day rally of as much as 126%&nbsp;on Tuesday and Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>Robinhood 上周首次公开募股 (IPO) 遭遇挫折， 股价下跌高达 12%， 但该股此后出现了令人印象深刻的反弹， 并收复了所有损失， 然后又收复了一些损失。该在线交易应用程序在周二和周三上演了两天高达126%的反弹。</blockquote></p><p> The 13.8 million restrictive stock units were granted to both founders in 2013, but the award terms were revised in May to extend the deadline of the award to 2025. Under the original plan, Tenev and Bhatt would have only received 20% of the stock award if at the time of IPO shares were priced between $30.45 and $50.75, according to the filing.</p><p><blockquote>这1380万限制性股票单位于2013年授予两位创始人，但授予条款在5月份进行了修改，将授予截止日期延长至2025年。文件显示，根据最初的计划，如果 IPO 时股价在 30.45 美元至 50.75 美元之间，Tenev 和 Bhatt 只能获得 20% 的股票奖励。</blockquote></p><p> The company priced its IPO at $38 per share, meaning Tenev and Bhatt would have only received 20% of their stock award if the terms weren't revised.</p><p><blockquote>该公司将 IPO 定价为每股 38 美元，这意味着如果条款不修改，Tenev 和 Bhatt 只能获得 20% 的股票奖励。</blockquote></p><p> Tenev and Bhatt also stand to receive millions of more Robinhood shares if their stock price eventually trades up to $300 per share by the end of this decade. The co-founders were granted an additional RSU equity award, 22 million shares for Tenev and 13 million shares of Bhatt, if the stock price hit a number of price hurdles, starting at $120 and moving up in increments of $30 until topping out at $300.</p><p><blockquote>如果到本十年末，Tenev 和 Bhatt 的股价最终达到每股 300 美元，他们还将获得数百万股 Robinhood 股票。联合创始人将获得额外的RSU股权奖励，即Tenev 2200万股，Bhatt 1300万股，前提是股价达到一些价格障碍，从120美元开始，以30美元的增量上涨，直到达到300美元。</blockquote></p><p> All in all, if successful, the equity awards for Tenev and Bhatt could be worth up to $10.8 billion and $8.1 billion, respectively, assuming both co-founders don't sell a single share of their accumulated equity awards after the last tranche is granted at the $300 per share level.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，如果成功，Tenev 和 Bhatt 的股权奖励价值可能分别高达 108 亿美元和 81 亿美元，假设两位联合创始人在最后一批股权奖励后不出售其累积股权奖励的一股。以每股 300 美元的水平授予。</blockquote></p><p> \"The 2021 Market-Based RSUs are designed to incentivize the Co-Founders toward further growing our share price over and above the price hurdles applicable to the 2019 Market-Based RSUs,\" Robinhood said in the filing.</p><p><blockquote>Robinhood 在文件中表示：“2021 年基于市场的受限制股份单位旨在激励联合创始人进一步提高我们的股价，超过适用于 2019 年基于市场的受限制股份单位的价格障碍。”</blockquote></p><p> In April, Robinhood reduced the annual salary of Tenev and Bhatt to $34,248, which is the 2019 median wage of US workers. Both were previously paid a base salary of $400,000.</p><p><blockquote>4月，Robinhood将Tenev和Bhatt的年薪降至34248美元，这是2019年美国工人的工资中位数。两人之前的基本工资都是40万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Tenev and Bhatt founded Robinhood in 2013. The company has&nbsp;seen its business explode&nbsp;as millions of Americans began investing in the stock market amid the COVID-19 pandemic and government stimulus checks. Epic rallies in&nbsp;dogecoin and meme-stocks like GameStop and AMC Entertainment&nbsp;have also boosted its business in recent months.</p><p><blockquote>Tenev和Bhatt于2013年创立了Robinhood。随着数百万美国人在 COVID-19 大流行和政府刺激检查期间开始投资股市，该公司的业务出现了爆炸式增长。近几个月来，狗狗币以及游戏驿站和AMC院线等模因股票的史诗般的反弹也提振了其业务。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Robinhood's 126% post-IPO rally puts its founders within reach of a $1.4 billion stock payout<blockquote>Robinhood IPO 后上涨 126%，使其创始人有望获得 14 亿美元的股票派息</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRobinhood's 126% post-IPO rally puts its founders within reach of a $1.4 billion stock payout<blockquote>Robinhood IPO 后上涨 126%，使其创始人有望获得 14 亿美元的股票派息</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Markets Insider</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-05 13:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ebea8ef44433d4792daec9801d33fc7\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Robinhood co-founders Baiju Bhatt (left) and Vlad Tenev.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Robinhood 联合创始人 Baiju Bhatt（左）和 Vlad Tenev。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Robinhood's post IPO rally of as much as 126% put its founders within reach of a $1.4 billion payout.</b></li>  <li><b>Co-founders Vlad Tenev and Baiju Bhatt stand to receive 13.8 million shares if Robinhood's stock price closes above $101.50 by 2025.</b></li>  <li><b>Shares of Robinhood hit an intra-day high of $85 on Wednesday, just 19% below the award price.</b></li> </ul> A wild post-IPO rally in shares of&nbsp;Robinhood&nbsp;this week put its co-founders within reach of a $1.4 billion stock payout, according to the&nbsp;company's S-1 filing.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>Robinhood IPO 后股价上涨高达 126%，使其创始人有望获得 14 亿美元的派息。</b></li><li><b>如果 Robinhood 的股价到 2025 年收于 101.50 美元以上，联合创始人 Vlad Tenev 和 Baiju Bhatt 将获得 1380 万股股票。</b></li><li><b>Robinhood 股价周三触及 85 美元的盘中高点，仅比发行价低 19%。</b></li></ul>根据该公司提交的 S-1 文件，Robinhood 股价本周在 IPO 后大幅上涨，使其联合创始人有望获得 14 亿美元的股票派息。</blockquote></p><p> Vlad Tenev and Baiju Bhatt&nbsp;stand to each receive 13.8 million shares&nbsp;if Robinhood's stock price closes above $101.50 by 2025 for an extended period of time. Shares of Robinhood hit an intra-day high of $85 on Wednesday, just 19% below the price needed for Tenev and Bhatt to unlock their stock award.</p><p><blockquote>如果 Robinhood 的股价在 2025 年之前长期收于 101.50 美元以上，Vlad Tenev 和 Baiju Bhatt 将各获得 1380 万股股票。Robinhood 股价周三触及 85 美元的盘中高点，仅比 Tenev 和 Bhatt 解锁股票奖励所需的价格低 19%。</blockquote></p><p> The $101.50 price hurdle is based on the average of the daily volume weighted average of Robinhood's stock price for each day over a consecutive 60-day trading period.</p><p><blockquote>101.50 美元的价格障碍是基于连续 60 天交易期内每天 Robinhood 股票价格的每日成交量加权平均值的平均值。</blockquote></p><p> Robinhood stumbled in its IPO debut last week,with shares falling as much as 12%,but the stock has since staged an impressive rebound and recovered all of its losses and then some. The online trading app staged a&nbsp;two-day rally of as much as 126%&nbsp;on Tuesday and Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>Robinhood 上周首次公开募股 (IPO) 遭遇挫折， 股价下跌高达 12%， 但该股此后出现了令人印象深刻的反弹， 并收复了所有损失， 然后又收复了一些损失。该在线交易应用程序在周二和周三上演了两天高达126%的反弹。</blockquote></p><p> The 13.8 million restrictive stock units were granted to both founders in 2013, but the award terms were revised in May to extend the deadline of the award to 2025. Under the original plan, Tenev and Bhatt would have only received 20% of the stock award if at the time of IPO shares were priced between $30.45 and $50.75, according to the filing.</p><p><blockquote>这1380万限制性股票单位于2013年授予两位创始人，但授予条款在5月份进行了修改，将授予截止日期延长至2025年。文件显示，根据最初的计划，如果 IPO 时股价在 30.45 美元至 50.75 美元之间，Tenev 和 Bhatt 只能获得 20% 的股票奖励。</blockquote></p><p> The company priced its IPO at $38 per share, meaning Tenev and Bhatt would have only received 20% of their stock award if the terms weren't revised.</p><p><blockquote>该公司将 IPO 定价为每股 38 美元，这意味着如果条款不修改，Tenev 和 Bhatt 只能获得 20% 的股票奖励。</blockquote></p><p> Tenev and Bhatt also stand to receive millions of more Robinhood shares if their stock price eventually trades up to $300 per share by the end of this decade. The co-founders were granted an additional RSU equity award, 22 million shares for Tenev and 13 million shares of Bhatt, if the stock price hit a number of price hurdles, starting at $120 and moving up in increments of $30 until topping out at $300.</p><p><blockquote>如果到本十年末，Tenev 和 Bhatt 的股价最终达到每股 300 美元，他们还将获得数百万股 Robinhood 股票。联合创始人将获得额外的RSU股权奖励，即Tenev 2200万股，Bhatt 1300万股，前提是股价达到一些价格障碍，从120美元开始，以30美元的增量上涨，直到达到300美元。</blockquote></p><p> All in all, if successful, the equity awards for Tenev and Bhatt could be worth up to $10.8 billion and $8.1 billion, respectively, assuming both co-founders don't sell a single share of their accumulated equity awards after the last tranche is granted at the $300 per share level.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，如果成功，Tenev 和 Bhatt 的股权奖励价值可能分别高达 108 亿美元和 81 亿美元，假设两位联合创始人在最后一批股权奖励后不出售其累积股权奖励的一股。以每股 300 美元的水平授予。</blockquote></p><p> \"The 2021 Market-Based RSUs are designed to incentivize the Co-Founders toward further growing our share price over and above the price hurdles applicable to the 2019 Market-Based RSUs,\" Robinhood said in the filing.</p><p><blockquote>Robinhood 在文件中表示：“2021 年基于市场的受限制股份单位旨在激励联合创始人进一步提高我们的股价，超过适用于 2019 年基于市场的受限制股份单位的价格障碍。”</blockquote></p><p> In April, Robinhood reduced the annual salary of Tenev and Bhatt to $34,248, which is the 2019 median wage of US workers. Both were previously paid a base salary of $400,000.</p><p><blockquote>4月，Robinhood将Tenev和Bhatt的年薪降至34248美元，这是2019年美国工人的工资中位数。两人之前的基本工资都是40万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Tenev and Bhatt founded Robinhood in 2013. The company has&nbsp;seen its business explode&nbsp;as millions of Americans began investing in the stock market amid the COVID-19 pandemic and government stimulus checks. Epic rallies in&nbsp;dogecoin and meme-stocks like GameStop and AMC Entertainment&nbsp;have also boosted its business in recent months.</p><p><blockquote>Tenev和Bhatt于2013年创立了Robinhood。随着数百万美国人在 COVID-19 大流行和政府刺激检查期间开始投资股市，该公司的业务出现了爆炸式增长。近几个月来，狗狗币以及游戏驿站和AMC院线等模因股票的史诗般的反弹也提振了其业务。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/robinhood-stock-price-ipo-rally-founders-closer-1-billion-payout-2021-8\">Markets Insider</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"HOOD":"Robinhood"},"source_url":"https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/robinhood-stock-price-ipo-rally-founders-closer-1-billion-payout-2021-8","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183934326","content_text":"Robinhood co-founders Baiju Bhatt (left) and Vlad Tenev.\n\nRobinhood's post IPO rally of as much as 126% put its founders within reach of a $1.4 billion payout.\nCo-founders Vlad Tenev and Baiju Bhatt stand to receive 13.8 million shares if Robinhood's stock price closes above $101.50 by 2025.\nShares of Robinhood hit an intra-day high of $85 on Wednesday, just 19% below the award price.\n\nA wild post-IPO rally in shares of Robinhood this week put its co-founders within reach of a $1.4 billion stock payout, according to the company's S-1 filing.\nVlad Tenev and Baiju Bhatt stand to each receive 13.8 million shares if Robinhood's stock price closes above $101.50 by 2025 for an extended period of time. Shares of Robinhood hit an intra-day high of $85 on Wednesday, just 19% below the price needed for Tenev and Bhatt to unlock their stock award.\nThe $101.50 price hurdle is based on the average of the daily volume weighted average of Robinhood's stock price for each day over a consecutive 60-day trading period.\nRobinhood stumbled in its IPO debut last week,with shares falling as much as 12%,but the stock has since staged an impressive rebound and recovered all of its losses and then some. The online trading app staged a two-day rally of as much as 126% on Tuesday and Wednesday.\nThe 13.8 million restrictive stock units were granted to both founders in 2013, but the award terms were revised in May to extend the deadline of the award to 2025. Under the original plan, Tenev and Bhatt would have only received 20% of the stock award if at the time of IPO shares were priced between $30.45 and $50.75, according to the filing.\nThe company priced its IPO at $38 per share, meaning Tenev and Bhatt would have only received 20% of their stock award if the terms weren't revised.\nTenev and Bhatt also stand to receive millions of more Robinhood shares if their stock price eventually trades up to $300 per share by the end of this decade. The co-founders were granted an additional RSU equity award, 22 million shares for Tenev and 13 million shares of Bhatt, if the stock price hit a number of price hurdles, starting at $120 and moving up in increments of $30 until topping out at $300.\nAll in all, if successful, the equity awards for Tenev and Bhatt could be worth up to $10.8 billion and $8.1 billion, respectively, assuming both co-founders don't sell a single share of their accumulated equity awards after the last tranche is granted at the $300 per share level.\n\"The 2021 Market-Based RSUs are designed to incentivize the Co-Founders toward further growing our share price over and above the price hurdles applicable to the 2019 Market-Based RSUs,\" Robinhood said in the filing.\nIn April, Robinhood reduced the annual salary of Tenev and Bhatt to $34,248, which is the 2019 median wage of US workers. Both were previously paid a base salary of $400,000.\nTenev and Bhatt founded Robinhood in 2013. The company has seen its business explode as millions of Americans began investing in the stock market amid the COVID-19 pandemic and government stimulus checks. Epic rallies in dogecoin and meme-stocks like GameStop and AMC Entertainment have also boosted its business in recent months.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HOOD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1807,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":803757859,"gmtCreate":1627467312371,"gmtModify":1631889458348,"author":{"id":"3581681532128922","authorId":"3581681532128922","name":"tiototo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23c32a08fbf6fc88a1bda4f6b4f99ddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581681532128922","authorIdStr":"3581681532128922"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Semicon stocks should have some legs to run further","listText":"Semicon stocks should have some legs to run further","text":"Semicon stocks should have some legs to run further","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/803757859","repostId":"1100886165","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4015,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":803752423,"gmtCreate":1627467057262,"gmtModify":1631889458362,"author":{"id":"3581681532128922","authorId":"3581681532128922","name":"tiototo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23c32a08fbf6fc88a1bda4f6b4f99ddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581681532128922","authorIdStr":"3581681532128922"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Why would elon musk want to buy AVTI??","listText":"Why would elon musk want to buy AVTI??","text":"Why would elon musk want to buy AVTI??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/803752423","repostId":"1181811581","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3670,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":175149178,"gmtCreate":1627016316994,"gmtModify":1631889458372,"author":{"id":"3581681532128922","authorId":"3581681532128922","name":"tiototo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23c32a08fbf6fc88a1bda4f6b4f99ddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581681532128922","authorIdStr":"3581681532128922"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Follow the grandmaster. It wont go wrong. Lol","listText":"Follow the grandmaster. It wont go wrong. Lol","text":"Follow the grandmaster. It wont go wrong. Lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/175149178","repostId":"2153787206","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3881,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":172340748,"gmtCreate":1626939974584,"gmtModify":1631889458381,"author":{"id":"3581681532128922","authorId":"3581681532128922","name":"tiototo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23c32a08fbf6fc88a1bda4f6b4f99ddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581681532128922","authorIdStr":"3581681532128922"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Why they left traces in the chat msg???","listText":"Why they left traces in the chat msg???","text":"Why they left traces in the chat msg???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/172340748","repostId":"1119296199","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119296199","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626933778,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1119296199?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-22 14:02","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Gold Trader’s Chat Bragged About ‘How Easy’ It Is to Manipulate Prices<blockquote>黄金交易员的聊天吹嘘操纵价格“有多容易”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119296199","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- Chat logs introduced as evidence by prosecutors at the Chicago spoofing trial of two ","content":"<p><div> (Bloomberg) -- Chat logs introduced as evidence by prosecutors at the Chicago spoofing trial of two former precious-metals traders for Bank of America Corp.’s Merrill Lynch unit shows one of them, ...</p><p><blockquote><div>(彭博社）--在芝加哥对美国银行（Bank of America Corp.）美林（Merrill Lynch）子公司的两名前贵金属交易员进行欺骗审判时，检察官提出了聊天记录作为证据，其中一人...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-trader-chat-bragged-easy-001619023.html\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-trader-chat-bragged-easy-001619023.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Gold Trader’s Chat Bragged About ‘How Easy’ It Is to Manipulate Prices<blockquote>黄金交易员的聊天吹嘘操纵价格“有多容易”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGold Trader’s Chat Bragged About ‘How Easy’ It Is to Manipulate Prices<blockquote>黄金交易员的聊天吹嘘操纵价格“有多容易”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Bloomberg</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-22 14:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> (Bloomberg) -- Chat logs introduced as evidence by prosecutors at the Chicago spoofing trial of two former precious-metals traders for Bank of America Corp.’s Merrill Lynch unit shows one of them, ...</p><p><blockquote><div>(彭博社）--在芝加哥对美国银行（Bank of America Corp.）美林（Merrill Lynch）子公司的两名前贵金属交易员进行欺骗审判时，检察官提出了聊天记录作为证据，其中一人...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-trader-chat-bragged-easy-001619023.html\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-trader-chat-bragged-easy-001619023.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-trader-chat-bragged-easy-001619023.html\">Bloomberg</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-trader-chat-bragged-easy-001619023.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119296199","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- Chat logs introduced as evidence by prosecutors at the Chicago spoofing trial of two former precious-metals traders for Bank of America Corp.’s Merrill Lynch unit shows one of them, Edward Bases, bragging about how easy it is to manipulate prices.\nOn Jan. 28, 2009, when Bases was working at Deutsche Bank AG, he put out bids to buy 2,740 gold futures contracts valued around $244 million over the course of four-and-a-half minutes, according to Maria Garibotti, a vice president at Analysis Group who studied exchange and trading data for prosecutors. More than 98% were canceled without being filled, she said.\nOn the opposite side of the market, a fellow Deutsche Bank trader Bases coordinated with sold his 170 contracts worth $15,172,500 as the price rose, Garibotti told jurors on Wednesday.\n“that does show u how easy it is to manipulate it sometimes,” Bases wrote minutes after the trading in a chat message sent to the other Deutsche Bank trader, Cedric Chanu, according to Garibotti. Chanu and another Deutsche Bank Trader, James Vorley, were sentenced last month to a year in prison each for their convictions in 2020 on spoofing charges at a separate trial.\n“I f..k the mkt around a lot,” Bases said in another message.\nBases and fellow Merrill Lynch trader John Pacilio face federal fraud charges for allegedly spoofing the futures market from 2008 to 2014.\nAnother episode described by Garibotti involved trades by Bases and Pacilio on Aug. 9, 2010, when both were working at Merrill Lynch.\nThat day, Bases placed an iceberg order to buy 10 contracts of platinum, with six being filled at placement, she said. Less than 10 seconds after Bases placed that buy order, Pacilio placed an order to sell 205 contracts for $15,856,750, which was almost 90% of what was visible on the exchange order book, Garibotti said. The price went down, and the rest of Bases’ order was filled, she said. Less than a second later, Pacilio’s sell order was canceled, she said.\nGaribotti said employees at Analysis Group put in about 3,000 hours studying data in this case over the course of several years, billing the government $1.2 million for its work.\nThe defense attorneys have not yet begun cross-examining Garibotti.\nIn opening arguments Tuesday, Bases’ defense attorney told the jury that once her client understood spoofing was illegal, he stopped doing it, and that nearly all the conduct the government identified was before the enactment of the Dodd-Frank Act, which specifically prohibited spoofing.\nThe case is U.S. v. Bases et al, 18-cr-00048, U.S. District Court, Northern District of Illinois (Chicago).","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2021,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":149205638,"gmtCreate":1625727188124,"gmtModify":1631889458396,"author":{"id":"3581681532128922","authorId":"3581681532128922","name":"tiototo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23c32a08fbf6fc88a1bda4f6b4f99ddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581681532128922","authorIdStr":"3581681532128922"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"But it dropped 7% yesterday..","listText":"But it dropped 7% yesterday..","text":"But it dropped 7% yesterday..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/149205638","repostId":"2149931325","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2046,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":149206770,"gmtCreate":1625727079090,"gmtModify":1631889458465,"author":{"id":"3581681532128922","authorId":"3581681532128922","name":"tiototo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23c32a08fbf6fc88a1bda4f6b4f99ddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581681532128922","authorIdStr":"3581681532128922"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"I think it will take some time for investors to regain confidence in the china stocks listed in the US","listText":"I think it will take some time for investors to regain confidence in the china stocks listed in the US","text":"I think it will take some time for investors to regain confidence in the china stocks listed in the US","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/149206770","repostId":"1104195989","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1939,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":154014972,"gmtCreate":1625460133396,"gmtModify":1631889458418,"author":{"id":"3581681532128922","authorId":"3581681532128922","name":"tiototo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23c32a08fbf6fc88a1bda4f6b4f99ddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581681532128922","authorIdStr":"3581681532128922"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Prepare for a sell down on tuesday&nbsp;[生气]&nbsp;","listText":"Prepare for a sell down on tuesday&nbsp;[生气]&nbsp;","text":"Prepare for a sell down on tuesday [生气]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/154014972","repostId":"1169840279","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3121,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":127562983,"gmtCreate":1624857332542,"gmtModify":1631889458428,"author":{"id":"3581681532128922","authorId":"3581681532128922","name":"tiototo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23c32a08fbf6fc88a1bda4f6b4f99ddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581681532128922","authorIdStr":"3581681532128922"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Online betting is the way to go lol","listText":"Online betting is the way to go lol","text":"Online betting is the way to go lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127562983","repostId":"1109276407","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109276407","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624847918,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1109276407?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-28 10:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"This Casino Company Has A Better 5-Year Return Than Alibaba, Amazon, Disney And Ford<blockquote>这家赌场公司的 5 年回报率优于阿里巴巴-SW、亚马逊、迪斯尼和福特</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109276407","media":"Benzinga","summary":"It may not be as exciting as a round of Texas hold'em or slot machines with family and friends, but ","content":"<p><div> It may not be as exciting as a round of Texas hold'em or slot machines with family and friends, but an investment in Penn National Gaming, Inc(NASDAQ:PENN) has been a fun ride for many investors. ...</p><p><blockquote><div>这可能不像与家人和朋友一起玩德州扑克或吃角子老虎机那么令人兴奋，但对许多投资者来说，投资宾夕法尼亚国家博彩公司（纳斯达克股票代码：PENN）是一次有趣的旅程。...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/21/06/21726750/this-casino-company-has-a-better-5-year-return-than-alibaba-amazon-disney-and-ford\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/21/06/21726750/this-casino-company-has-a-better-5-year-return-than-alibaba-amazon-disney-and-ford\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This Casino Company Has A Better 5-Year Return Than Alibaba, Amazon, Disney And Ford<blockquote>这家赌场公司的 5 年回报率优于阿里巴巴-SW、亚马逊、迪斯尼和福特</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis Casino Company Has A Better 5-Year Return Than Alibaba, Amazon, Disney And Ford<blockquote>这家赌场公司的 5 年回报率优于阿里巴巴-SW、亚马逊、迪斯尼和福特</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Benzinga</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-28 10:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> It may not be as exciting as a round of Texas hold'em or slot machines with family and friends, but an investment in Penn National Gaming, Inc(NASDAQ:PENN) has been a fun ride for many investors. ...</p><p><blockquote><div>这可能不像与家人和朋友一起玩德州扑克或吃角子老虎机那么令人兴奋，但对许多投资者来说，投资宾夕法尼亚国家博彩公司（纳斯达克股票代码：PENN）是一次有趣的旅程。...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/21/06/21726750/this-casino-company-has-a-better-5-year-return-than-alibaba-amazon-disney-and-ford\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/21/06/21726750/this-casino-company-has-a-better-5-year-return-than-alibaba-amazon-disney-and-ford\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/21/06/21726750/this-casino-company-has-a-better-5-year-return-than-alibaba-amazon-disney-and-ford\">Benzinga</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊","BABA":"阿里巴巴","DIS":"迪士尼","PENN":"佩恩国民博彩","F":"福特汽车"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/21/06/21726750/this-casino-company-has-a-better-5-year-return-than-alibaba-amazon-disney-and-ford","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109276407","content_text":"It may not be as exciting as a round of Texas hold'em or slot machines with family and friends, but an investment in Penn National Gaming, Inc(NASDAQ:PENN) has been a fun ride for many investors.\nSince 2016, Penn National Gaming stock's five-year return has managed to beat some of the world’s largest e-commerce, media and automotive companies:Alibaba Group Holding Ltd – ADR(NYSE:BABA),Walt Disney Co(NYSE:DIS),Ford Motor Company(NYSE:F) and Amazon.com, Inc.(NASDAQ:AMZN).\nPenn operates gaming and racing properties the U.S. The company has garnered popularity throughout 2020 and into 2021 thanks to its retail sports bettingofferingswith digital media company Barstool Sports.\nPenn offers live sports betting at its properties in Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Mississippi, Pennsylvania and West Virginia.\nHere's how the returns break down from June 2016 to present:\n\nAlibaba is up from $76.29 a share to $224.72 for a return of 194.56%\nDisney is up from $95.72 a share to $177.74 for a return of 85.68%\nFord is up from $12.52 a share to $15.38 for a return of 22.84%\nAmazon is up from $698.96 a share to $3406.75 for a return of 387.40%\nAnd finally, Penn is up from $13.95 a share to $75.36 for a return of 440.22%","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"F":0.9,"PENN":0.9,"BABA":0.9,"DIS":0.9,"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3206,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127582278,"gmtCreate":1624856798494,"gmtModify":1631889458439,"author":{"id":"3581681532128922","authorId":"3581681532128922","name":"tiototo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23c32a08fbf6fc88a1bda4f6b4f99ddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581681532128922","authorIdStr":"3581681532128922"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Agree..","listText":"Agree..","text":"Agree..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127582278","repostId":"1177492181","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177492181","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624849703,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1177492181?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-28 11:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Stock Market Hasn’t Been This Placid in Years<blockquote>股市多年来从未如此平静过</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177492181","media":"WSJ","summary":"The U.S. stock marketis as calm as can beon the surface, while churning underneath more than it has ","content":"<p>The U.S. stock marketis as calm as can beon the surface, while churning underneath more than it has in decades.</p><p><blockquote>美国股市表面上尽可能平静，但背后却比几十年来更加动荡。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 is so quiet it is almost disconcerting. The index hasn’t had a 5% correction based on closing prices since the end of October; no wonder the new day traders who started buying shares in lockdown think the market only goes up. The last time the S&amp;P was this serene for so long was in 2017, a period of calm that ended with the volatility crash early in 2018—although back then it was even quieter for much longer.</p><p><blockquote>标普500如此安静，几乎令人不安。自 10 月底以来，该指数从未根据收盘价进行过 5% 的调整；难怪开始锁定购买股票的新日内交易者认为市场只会上涨。标准普尔上一次如此平静是在 2017 年，那是一段平静时期，随着 2018 年初的波动性崩盘而结束——尽管当时平静的时间甚至更长。</blockquote></p><p> Yet, look at the performance of types of stocks, and they have been swinging around much more than they usually do. Investors have been switching their bets between industries at a pace not seen outside of crises; March brought the biggest gap between the best and worst-performing sectors since 2002.</p><p><blockquote>然而，看看各类股票的表现，它们的波动幅度比平时要大得多。投资者一直在以危机之外前所未有的速度在行业之间转换押注；3月份出现了自2002年以来表现最好和最差的行业之间的最大差距。</blockquote></p><p> The link between moves in growth stocks and cheap “value” stocks is the weakest—measured by the correlation—since 1995; investors are using them as proxies for betting for or against economic recovery.</p><p><blockquote>以相关性衡量，成长型股票和廉价“价值”股票之间的联系是自 1995 年以来最弱的；投资者正在利用它们作为押注经济复苏或反对经济复苏的代理人。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, big and small stocks last moved so independently of each other during the dot-com bubble of 2000, never a reassuring sign.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，大盘股和小盘股上一次如此独立地走势是在 2000 年的互联网泡沫时期，这从来都不是一个令人放心的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> I think this is another aspect of TINA: There Is No Alternative to stocks. With Treasurys, corporate bonds and cashoffering meager or zero return, stocks offer the best hope of gains. Investors who would previously have shifted money from stocks to bonds or vice versa now just switch from one sort of stock to another—so falls in one are offset by gains in another.</p><p><blockquote>我认为这是蒂娜的另一个方面：除了股票没有其他选择。由于国债、公司债券和现金回报率微薄或为零，股票提供了最大的收益希望。以前会将资金从股票转向债券，反之亦然的投资者现在只是从一种股票转向另一种股票——因此一种股票的下跌会被另一种股票的上涨所抵消。</blockquote></p><p> There is no guarantee that it continues this way, of course. Bring enough fear into play and investors will bolt for the exits no matter how low cash yields are, just as they did in March last year. But while times seem pretty good, it is hard to justify buying a long-dated bond yielding far less than inflation. And times do seem pretty good.</p><p><blockquote>当然，不能保证它会继续这样下去。让足够的恐惧发挥作用，无论现金收益率有多低，投资者都会赶紧退出，就像他们去年 3 月所做的那样。但是，尽管形势看起来很好，但很难证明购买收益率远低于通货膨胀率的长期债券是合理的。时光看起来确实不错。</blockquote></p><p> A widespread theory among those of a cautious disposition is that stocks just keep going up because a massive bubble has been inflated by cheap money and government stimulus. Stocks haven’t been so expensive since 2000, while a bubble mentality is obvious in the wild overtrading of fashionable stocks. A cluster of small stocks popular with retail tradershas often featured at the topof the most-traded lists this year, notablyGameStopandAMC Entertainmentbut also favorites such as Virgin Galactic andBlackBerry.</p><p><blockquote>持谨慎态度的人普遍认为，股市之所以持续上涨，是因为廉价资金和政府刺激措施助长了巨大的泡沫。自 2000 年以来，股票从未如此昂贵，而时尚股票的疯狂过度交易则明显带有泡沫心态。一组深受散户交易员欢迎的小型股票经常出现在今年交易量最大的榜单上，特别是 GameStoPandAMC Entertainment，但也有维珍银河和黑莓等热门股票。</blockquote></p><p> It is undeniable that stocks are far more expensive than usual. But bubbles usually involve lots of volatility as they inflate, not a calm exterior and turmoil within, because every little price drop is magnified by others fearful that the bubble is about to pop. In 1999 there were at least nine drops of more than 5% in the S&amp;P 500, and from its intraday peak in July to the October low it fell 13%.</p><p><blockquote>不可否认，股票比平时贵得多。但泡沫在膨胀时通常会有很大的波动性，而不是外表平静、内心动荡，因为价格的每一次小幅下跌都会被其他人放大，他们担心泡沫即将破裂。1999年，标普500至少有9次跌幅超过5%，从7月份的盘中峰值到10月份的低点，跌幅达13%。</blockquote></p><p> This time the most obvious threat to stocks is the Federal Reserve, rather than the market’s overvaluation. If the Fed raises rates, cash and bonds suddenly look much more attractive, and the TINA justification for buying extraordinarily expensive stocks is undermined.</p><p><blockquote>这一次，对股市最明显的威胁是美联储，而不是市场的高估。如果美联储加息，现金和债券突然看起来更具吸引力，蒂娜购买异常昂贵股票的理由就会被削弱。</blockquote></p><p> “You’ve got lots of volatility within the market but not a lot of volatility of the market,” says Robert Buckland, chief global equity strategist at Citigroup. “If there’s an alternative to just owning the index that could change.”</p><p><blockquote>“花旗集团首席全球股票策略师罗伯特-巴克兰（Robert Buckland）说：”市场内部波动很大，但市场波动却不大。“如果除了拥有指数之外还有其他选择，情况可能会有所改变”。</blockquote></p><p> This month’s Fed scare showed just how sensitive stock prices are when it turns out there is an alternative to stocks, of sorts. The Fedraised rates fractionally off the floorby offering 0.05% instead of 0% on its cash-absorbing reverse repurchase agreements, a kind of overnight secured deposit, and instantly sucked in $235 billion extra. Talk of rate increases coming in two years instead of the three previously projected added to pressure on stocks, and the S&amp;P fell just over 2% in three days before resuming its upward climb.</p><p><blockquote>本月的美联储恐慌表明，当股票还有其他选择时，股票价格是多么敏感。美联储在吸收现金的逆回购协议（一种隔夜担保存款）中提供 0.05% 而不是 0% 的利率，略低于底线，并立即额外吸收了 2350 亿美元。关于两年内加息而不是之前预测的三年的说法增加了股市的压力，标准普尔指数在三天内下跌了 2% 多一点，然后恢复了向上攀升。</blockquote></p><p> If that was the reaction to the Fed just barely doing something close to nothing, imagine how scared the market would be if the Fed started a normal rate hiking cycle and made cash attractive again. It isn’t something I think is likely soon, but the number one threat that could bring the turmoil from the depths to the surface of this market is the Fed.</p><p><blockquote>如果这是对美联储几乎什么都没做的反应，想象一下，如果美联储开始正常的加息周期并使现金再次具有吸引力，市场会有多害怕。我认为这种情况不太可能很快发生，但可能将市场深处的动荡带到表面的头号威胁是美联储。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Stock Market Hasn’t Been This Placid in Years<blockquote>股市多年来从未如此平静过</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Stock Market Hasn’t Been This Placid in Years<blockquote>股市多年来从未如此平静过</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">WSJ</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-28 11:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The U.S. stock marketis as calm as can beon the surface, while churning underneath more than it has in decades.</p><p><blockquote>美国股市表面上尽可能平静，但背后却比几十年来更加动荡。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 is so quiet it is almost disconcerting. The index hasn’t had a 5% correction based on closing prices since the end of October; no wonder the new day traders who started buying shares in lockdown think the market only goes up. The last time the S&amp;P was this serene for so long was in 2017, a period of calm that ended with the volatility crash early in 2018—although back then it was even quieter for much longer.</p><p><blockquote>标普500如此安静，几乎令人不安。自 10 月底以来，该指数从未根据收盘价进行过 5% 的调整；难怪开始锁定购买股票的新日内交易者认为市场只会上涨。标准普尔上一次如此平静是在 2017 年，那是一段平静时期，随着 2018 年初的波动性崩盘而结束——尽管当时平静的时间甚至更长。</blockquote></p><p> Yet, look at the performance of types of stocks, and they have been swinging around much more than they usually do. Investors have been switching their bets between industries at a pace not seen outside of crises; March brought the biggest gap between the best and worst-performing sectors since 2002.</p><p><blockquote>然而，看看各类股票的表现，它们的波动幅度比平时要大得多。投资者一直在以危机之外前所未有的速度在行业之间转换押注；3月份出现了自2002年以来表现最好和最差的行业之间的最大差距。</blockquote></p><p> The link between moves in growth stocks and cheap “value” stocks is the weakest—measured by the correlation—since 1995; investors are using them as proxies for betting for or against economic recovery.</p><p><blockquote>以相关性衡量，成长型股票和廉价“价值”股票之间的联系是自 1995 年以来最弱的；投资者正在利用它们作为押注经济复苏或反对经济复苏的代理人。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, big and small stocks last moved so independently of each other during the dot-com bubble of 2000, never a reassuring sign.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，大盘股和小盘股上一次如此独立地走势是在 2000 年的互联网泡沫时期，这从来都不是一个令人放心的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> I think this is another aspect of TINA: There Is No Alternative to stocks. With Treasurys, corporate bonds and cashoffering meager or zero return, stocks offer the best hope of gains. Investors who would previously have shifted money from stocks to bonds or vice versa now just switch from one sort of stock to another—so falls in one are offset by gains in another.</p><p><blockquote>我认为这是蒂娜的另一个方面：除了股票没有其他选择。由于国债、公司债券和现金回报率微薄或为零，股票提供了最大的收益希望。以前会将资金从股票转向债券，反之亦然的投资者现在只是从一种股票转向另一种股票——因此一种股票的下跌会被另一种股票的上涨所抵消。</blockquote></p><p> There is no guarantee that it continues this way, of course. Bring enough fear into play and investors will bolt for the exits no matter how low cash yields are, just as they did in March last year. But while times seem pretty good, it is hard to justify buying a long-dated bond yielding far less than inflation. And times do seem pretty good.</p><p><blockquote>当然，不能保证它会继续这样下去。让足够的恐惧发挥作用，无论现金收益率有多低，投资者都会赶紧退出，就像他们去年 3 月所做的那样。但是，尽管形势看起来很好，但很难证明购买收益率远低于通货膨胀率的长期债券是合理的。时光看起来确实不错。</blockquote></p><p> A widespread theory among those of a cautious disposition is that stocks just keep going up because a massive bubble has been inflated by cheap money and government stimulus. Stocks haven’t been so expensive since 2000, while a bubble mentality is obvious in the wild overtrading of fashionable stocks. A cluster of small stocks popular with retail tradershas often featured at the topof the most-traded lists this year, notablyGameStopandAMC Entertainmentbut also favorites such as Virgin Galactic andBlackBerry.</p><p><blockquote>持谨慎态度的人普遍认为，股市之所以持续上涨，是因为廉价资金和政府刺激措施助长了巨大的泡沫。自 2000 年以来，股票从未如此昂贵，而时尚股票的疯狂过度交易则明显带有泡沫心态。一组深受散户交易员欢迎的小型股票经常出现在今年交易量最大的榜单上，特别是 GameStoPandAMC Entertainment，但也有维珍银河和黑莓等热门股票。</blockquote></p><p> It is undeniable that stocks are far more expensive than usual. But bubbles usually involve lots of volatility as they inflate, not a calm exterior and turmoil within, because every little price drop is magnified by others fearful that the bubble is about to pop. In 1999 there were at least nine drops of more than 5% in the S&amp;P 500, and from its intraday peak in July to the October low it fell 13%.</p><p><blockquote>不可否认，股票比平时贵得多。但泡沫在膨胀时通常会有很大的波动性，而不是外表平静、内心动荡，因为价格的每一次小幅下跌都会被其他人放大，他们担心泡沫即将破裂。1999年，标普500至少有9次跌幅超过5%，从7月份的盘中峰值到10月份的低点，跌幅达13%。</blockquote></p><p> This time the most obvious threat to stocks is the Federal Reserve, rather than the market’s overvaluation. If the Fed raises rates, cash and bonds suddenly look much more attractive, and the TINA justification for buying extraordinarily expensive stocks is undermined.</p><p><blockquote>这一次，对股市最明显的威胁是美联储，而不是市场的高估。如果美联储加息，现金和债券突然看起来更具吸引力，蒂娜购买异常昂贵股票的理由就会被削弱。</blockquote></p><p> “You’ve got lots of volatility within the market but not a lot of volatility of the market,” says Robert Buckland, chief global equity strategist at Citigroup. “If there’s an alternative to just owning the index that could change.”</p><p><blockquote>“花旗集团首席全球股票策略师罗伯特-巴克兰（Robert Buckland）说：”市场内部波动很大，但市场波动却不大。“如果除了拥有指数之外还有其他选择，情况可能会有所改变”。</blockquote></p><p> This month’s Fed scare showed just how sensitive stock prices are when it turns out there is an alternative to stocks, of sorts. The Fedraised rates fractionally off the floorby offering 0.05% instead of 0% on its cash-absorbing reverse repurchase agreements, a kind of overnight secured deposit, and instantly sucked in $235 billion extra. Talk of rate increases coming in two years instead of the three previously projected added to pressure on stocks, and the S&amp;P fell just over 2% in three days before resuming its upward climb.</p><p><blockquote>本月的美联储恐慌表明，当股票还有其他选择时，股票价格是多么敏感。美联储在吸收现金的逆回购协议（一种隔夜担保存款）中提供 0.05% 而不是 0% 的利率，略低于底线，并立即额外吸收了 2350 亿美元。关于两年内加息而不是之前预测的三年的说法增加了股市的压力，标准普尔指数在三天内下跌了 2% 多一点，然后恢复了向上攀升。</blockquote></p><p> If that was the reaction to the Fed just barely doing something close to nothing, imagine how scared the market would be if the Fed started a normal rate hiking cycle and made cash attractive again. It isn’t something I think is likely soon, but the number one threat that could bring the turmoil from the depths to the surface of this market is the Fed.</p><p><blockquote>如果这是对美联储几乎什么都没做的反应，想象一下，如果美联储开始正常的加息周期并使现金再次具有吸引力，市场会有多害怕。我认为这种情况不太可能很快发生，但可能将市场深处的动荡带到表面的头号威胁是美联储。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-stock-market-hasnt-been-this-placid-in-years-11624740199?mod=itp_wsj\">WSJ</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-stock-market-hasnt-been-this-placid-in-years-11624740199?mod=itp_wsj","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177492181","content_text":"The U.S. stock marketis as calm as can beon the surface, while churning underneath more than it has in decades.\nThe S&P 500 is so quiet it is almost disconcerting. The index hasn’t had a 5% correction based on closing prices since the end of October; no wonder the new day traders who started buying shares in lockdown think the market only goes up. The last time the S&P was this serene for so long was in 2017, a period of calm that ended with the volatility crash early in 2018—although back then it was even quieter for much longer.\nYet, look at the performance of types of stocks, and they have been swinging around much more than they usually do. Investors have been switching their bets between industries at a pace not seen outside of crises; March brought the biggest gap between the best and worst-performing sectors since 2002.\nThe link between moves in growth stocks and cheap “value” stocks is the weakest—measured by the correlation—since 1995; investors are using them as proxies for betting for or against economic recovery.\nMeanwhile, big and small stocks last moved so independently of each other during the dot-com bubble of 2000, never a reassuring sign.\nI think this is another aspect of TINA: There Is No Alternative to stocks. With Treasurys, corporate bonds and cashoffering meager or zero return, stocks offer the best hope of gains. Investors who would previously have shifted money from stocks to bonds or vice versa now just switch from one sort of stock to another—so falls in one are offset by gains in another.\nThere is no guarantee that it continues this way, of course. Bring enough fear into play and investors will bolt for the exits no matter how low cash yields are, just as they did in March last year. But while times seem pretty good, it is hard to justify buying a long-dated bond yielding far less than inflation. And times do seem pretty good.\nA widespread theory among those of a cautious disposition is that stocks just keep going up because a massive bubble has been inflated by cheap money and government stimulus. Stocks haven’t been so expensive since 2000, while a bubble mentality is obvious in the wild overtrading of fashionable stocks. A cluster of small stocks popular with retail tradershas often featured at the topof the most-traded lists this year, notablyGameStopandAMC Entertainmentbut also favorites such as Virgin Galactic andBlackBerry.\nIt is undeniable that stocks are far more expensive than usual. But bubbles usually involve lots of volatility as they inflate, not a calm exterior and turmoil within, because every little price drop is magnified by others fearful that the bubble is about to pop. In 1999 there were at least nine drops of more than 5% in the S&P 500, and from its intraday peak in July to the October low it fell 13%.\nThis time the most obvious threat to stocks is the Federal Reserve, rather than the market’s overvaluation. If the Fed raises rates, cash and bonds suddenly look much more attractive, and the TINA justification for buying extraordinarily expensive stocks is undermined.\n“You’ve got lots of volatility within the market but not a lot of volatility of the market,” says Robert Buckland, chief global equity strategist at Citigroup. “If there’s an alternative to just owning the index that could change.”\nThis month’s Fed scare showed just how sensitive stock prices are when it turns out there is an alternative to stocks, of sorts. The Fedraised rates fractionally off the floorby offering 0.05% instead of 0% on its cash-absorbing reverse repurchase agreements, a kind of overnight secured deposit, and instantly sucked in $235 billion extra. Talk of rate increases coming in two years instead of the three previously projected added to pressure on stocks, and the S&P fell just over 2% in three days before resuming its upward climb.\nIf that was the reaction to the Fed just barely doing something close to nothing, imagine how scared the market would be if the Fed started a normal rate hiking cycle and made cash attractive again. It isn’t something I think is likely soon, but the number one threat that could bring the turmoil from the depths to the surface of this market is the Fed.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":955,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124551967,"gmtCreate":1624774134259,"gmtModify":1631892150117,"author":{"id":"3581681532128922","authorId":"3581681532128922","name":"tiototo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23c32a08fbf6fc88a1bda4f6b4f99ddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581681532128922","authorIdStr":"3581681532128922"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Seems good for lomg terms investors&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"Seems good for lomg terms investors&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"Seems good for lomg terms investors [财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124551967","repostId":"2146090006","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1285,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":123250827,"gmtCreate":1624426129369,"gmtModify":1631892150123,"author":{"id":"3581681532128922","authorId":"3581681532128922","name":"tiototo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23c32a08fbf6fc88a1bda4f6b4f99ddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581681532128922","authorIdStr":"3581681532128922"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Still relatively stronger compared to altcoins","listText":"Still relatively stronger compared to altcoins","text":"Still relatively stronger compared to altcoins","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123250827","repostId":"2145069164","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":954,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166619145,"gmtCreate":1624005555787,"gmtModify":1631892150125,"author":{"id":"3581681532128922","authorId":"3581681532128922","name":"tiototo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23c32a08fbf6fc88a1bda4f6b4f99ddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581681532128922","authorIdStr":"3581681532128922"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Better safe than sorry. Endure guys!&nbsp;","listText":"Better safe than sorry. Endure guys!&nbsp;","text":"Better safe than sorry. Endure guys!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166619145","repostId":"1113093847","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1009,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":161393331,"gmtCreate":1623903727523,"gmtModify":1631892150127,"author":{"id":"3581681532128922","authorId":"3581681532128922","name":"tiototo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23c32a08fbf6fc88a1bda4f6b4f99ddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581681532128922","authorIdStr":"3581681532128922"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Jd.com should have received more love from investors. Dun u all think so","listText":"Jd.com should have received more love from investors. Dun u all think so","text":"Jd.com should have received more love from investors. Dun u all think so","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/161393331","repostId":"2143794095","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1296,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":175149178,"gmtCreate":1627016316994,"gmtModify":1631889458372,"author":{"id":"3581681532128922","authorId":"3581681532128922","name":"tiototo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23c32a08fbf6fc88a1bda4f6b4f99ddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581681532128922","idStr":"3581681532128922"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Follow the grandmaster. It wont go wrong. Lol","listText":"Follow the grandmaster. It wont go wrong. Lol","text":"Follow the grandmaster. It wont go wrong. Lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/175149178","repostId":"2153787206","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3881,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":154014972,"gmtCreate":1625460133396,"gmtModify":1631889458418,"author":{"id":"3581681532128922","authorId":"3581681532128922","name":"tiototo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23c32a08fbf6fc88a1bda4f6b4f99ddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581681532128922","idStr":"3581681532128922"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Prepare for a sell down on tuesday&nbsp;[生气]&nbsp;","listText":"Prepare for a sell down on tuesday&nbsp;[生气]&nbsp;","text":"Prepare for a sell down on tuesday [生气]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/154014972","repostId":"1169840279","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3121,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":803752423,"gmtCreate":1627467057262,"gmtModify":1631889458362,"author":{"id":"3581681532128922","authorId":"3581681532128922","name":"tiototo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23c32a08fbf6fc88a1bda4f6b4f99ddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581681532128922","idStr":"3581681532128922"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Why would elon musk want to buy AVTI??","listText":"Why would elon musk want to buy AVTI??","text":"Why would elon musk want to buy AVTI??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/803752423","repostId":"1181811581","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3670,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":839481001,"gmtCreate":1629173680603,"gmtModify":1631883944418,"author":{"id":"3581681532128922","authorId":"3581681532128922","name":"tiototo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23c32a08fbf6fc88a1bda4f6b4f99ddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581681532128922","idStr":"3581681532128922"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Morgan Stanley should hire this guy as analyst instead","listText":"Morgan Stanley should hire this guy as analyst instead","text":"Morgan Stanley should hire this guy as analyst instead","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/839481001","repostId":"1162723925","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1162723925","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629170609,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1162723925?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-17 11:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Micron Technology: Winter May Be Coming, But Not This Year... Nor The Next<blockquote>美光科技：冬天可能来了，但不是今年……也不是下一个</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162723925","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe Morgan Stanley downgrade of Memory chips was based on PC DRAM ASPs that represent just ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The Morgan Stanley downgrade of Memory chips was based on PC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.</li>  <li>The report addressed dropping PC sales, but failed to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year.</li>  <li>The report focuses on DRAM spot prices, instead of contract prices that make up 90% of supplier ASPs.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72f0a26068ce9a56688977e5a0dd9578\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>borisyankov/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>摩根士丹利下调存储芯片评级是基于PC DRAM平均售价，这些平均售价仅占DRAM总需求的15%。</li><li>该报告谈到了个人电脑销量的下降，但没有认识到每台个人电脑的DRAM含量每年都在增加。</li><li>该报告重点关注DRAM现货价格，而不是占供应商平均售价90%的合同价格。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>borisyankov/E+ 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley analysts downgraded Micron(NASDAQ:MU)to equal weight from overweight, in their industry report titled, “Memory - Winter Is Coming.\" MS cautioned of a coming cool down in the DRAM memory business that could lead to lower DRAM prices.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利分析师在其题为《内存--冬天来了》的行业报告中，将美光（纳斯达克股票代码：MU）的评级从跑赢大盘下调至同等权重。微软警告说，DRAM 内存业务即将降温，这可能会导致 DRAM 价格下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley noted that</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利指出，</blockquote></p><p>   “DRAM conditions are losing steam, and our inflection signposts suggest caution from here there’s been a change from mid-cycle to late cycle, and that this phase-change has historically meant a challenging backdrop for forward returns.”  Micron Technology’sstock had its worst single-day percentage decline since March 16, 2020, when it fell 19.8%. MU's stock price for the past year is shown in Chart 1, illustrating the sell-off in the past few days coupled with a drop of more than 25% since reaching a high on April 12, 2021.</p><p><blockquote>“DRAM 状况正在失去动力，我们的拐点路标表明，从周期中期到周期后期已经发生了变化，这种相位变化在历史上意味着远期回报的背景充满挑战。”美光科技的股票创下了自 2020 年 3 月 16 日以来的最大单日百分比跌幅，当时下跌了 19.8%。MU过去一年的股价如图1所示，说明了过去几天的抛售，以及自2021年4月12日触及高点以来下跌超过25%的情况。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea0b20556a40eb39c18b7aa1ed295e1c\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"416\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 1</p><p><blockquote>图表1</blockquote></p><p> This article presents data that refutes the underlying case presented by Morgan Stanley that worsening DRAM demand is contributing to an acceleration of the end of the current memory upcycle leading to the start of a down cycle in 1Q 2022.</p><p><blockquote>本文提供的数据反驳了摩根士丹利提出的基本案例，即不断恶化的DRAM需求正在加速当前内存上升周期的结束，从而导致2022年第一季度开始下降周期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Morgan Stanley’s Misinterpretation of Data#1 Small Percentage of PC DRAM</b></p><p><blockquote><b>摩根士丹利对数据的误解#1 个人电脑 DRAM 所占比例很小</b></blockquote></p><p> The first point is the emphasis by Morgan Stanley on PC DRAM price erosion as a harbinger for the downturn in the DRAM market. Why? Because PCs represent just 15% of the demand for DRAMs,as shown in Chart 2, according to our report entitled “<i>Hot ICs: A Market Analysis of Artificial Intelligence, 5G, CMOS Image Sensors, and Memory Chips.\"</i></p><p><blockquote>第一点是摩根士丹利强调个人电脑DRAM价格下降是DRAM市场低迷的先兆。为什么？因为PC仅占DRAM需求的15%，如图2所示，根据我们题为“<i>热门集成电路：人工智能、5G、CMOS 图像传感器和存储芯片的市场分析。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b40e66f4b73b27303075791c19fe36f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart 2</p><p><blockquote>图表2</blockquote></p><p> <b>#2 Increased DRAM content per PC</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#2 每台PC的DRAM容量增加</b></blockquote></p><p> The 15% DRAM demand for PCs is hardly enough to cause a stop in the memory cycle. But that's beside the point. Morgan Stanley overlooks the fact that DRAM content per PC increases each year even if the PC market has slowed.</p><p><blockquote>个人电脑15%的DRAM需求几乎不足以导致内存周期停止。但那是题外话。摩根士丹利忽略了这样一个事实，即即使个人电脑市场放缓，每台个人电脑的DRAM含量每年都在增加。</blockquote></p><p> Chart 3 shows that PC unit shipments between 2015 and 2023. Indeed, my forecast shows that PCs will decrease in 2022 and 2023, but the decrease is due to a normalization of PC demand following the extraordinary demand for PCs during the work/study/stay-at-home orders associated with the COVID pandemic in 2020 that carried over into 2021.</p><p><blockquote>图 3 显示了 2015 年至 2023 年间 PC 单位出货量。事实上，我的预测显示个人电脑将在2022年和2023年下降，但下降是由于个人电脑需求正常化，此前2020年与COVID疫情相关的工作/学习/居家订单期间对个人电脑的异常需求一直持续到2021年。</blockquote></p><p> Prior to 2020, the PC market was decreasing, and I anticipate a corresponding return normalcy with a decrease of a few percent per year in 2022 and 2023. I estimate that DRAM content per PC will increase from 5.5 GB in 2015 to 14 GB in 2023. That’s an increase of 2.5 times during this period.</p><p><blockquote>2020 年之前，个人电脑市场正在下降，我预计 2022 年和 2023 年回报率将达到相应的正常水平，每年下降几个百分点。我估计每台电脑的DRAM内容将从2015年的5.5 GB增加到2023年的14 GB。这一时期增长了 2.5 倍。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732cd4948d7209d76ccb4f7628560ab\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 3</p><p><blockquote>图表3</blockquote></p><p> Thus, although PC units will decrease, DRAM content will increase during the next two years. But factoring in the increase in DRAM content per PC, we see in Chart 4 a much different growth in DRAMs.</p><p><blockquote>因此，尽管PC单元将减少，但DRAM含量将在未来两年内增加。但是考虑到每台PC的DRAM含量的增加，我们在图4中看到DRAM的增长截然不同。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c21d24f41f7f77bc00c62ed82b44f62\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart 4</p><p><blockquote>图表4</blockquote></p><p> <b>#3 Spot ASPs are Different than Contract ASPs</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#3 现货平均售价不同于合约平均售价</b></blockquote></p><p> Chart 5 shows DRAM data comparison for Spot ASPs vs Contract ASPs. The entire rationale for the TrendForce and Morgan Stanley reports is the drop in spot prices in 2021, and the resultant end of the current memory cycle.</p><p><blockquote>图5显示了现货ASP与合同ASP的DRAM数据比较。TrendForce 和摩根士丹利报告的全部理由是 2021 年现货价格下跌，以及当前内存周期的结束。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5a2774dcaff2d53edd141e0cc1e2d13\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart 5</p><p><blockquote>图表5</blockquote></p><p> Why they chose the drop in spot prices as the catalyst for the end of the cycle vs. the increase in contract prices as a catalyst for strong memory growth is irrational and illogical.</p><p><blockquote>为什么他们选择现货价格下跌作为周期结束的催化剂，而选择合同价格上涨作为内存强劲增长的催化剂，这是非理性和不合逻辑的。</blockquote></p><p> Importantly, there's no correlation between PC sales (Chart 3) and prices (Chart 5). In Chart 3, PC sales were at their lowest period (2017 and 2018) while ASPs were at their highest. Thus, there's an inverse relationship between PC sales and ASPs, not a direct relationship that would add credibility to the MS forecast.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是，个人电脑销量（图表3）和价格（图表5）之间没有相关性。在图表3中，个人电脑销量处于最低水平（2017年和2018年），而平均售价处于最高水平。因此，个人电脑销量和平均售价之间存在反比关系，而不是增加微软预测可信度的直接关系。</blockquote></p><p> <b>#4 Spot ASPs Are a Function of Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD Factor)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#4 Spot ASP是恐惧、不确定性和怀疑的函数（FUD因子）</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Also note that Chart 5 shows that spot and contract prices tracked between October 2016 and the end of 2000. A bifurcation in spot vs contract prices then took place in which spot prices escalated and then collapsed, while contract prices continued a strong growth with no abatement.</p><p><blockquote>另请注意，图表 5 显示了 2016 年 10 月至 2000 年底期间跟踪的现货和合约价格。现货价格与合约价格随后出现分叉，现货价格先涨后跌，而合约价格则持续强劲增长，且有增无减。</blockquote></p><p> This bifurcation is clearly the result of the “semiconductor shortage” in which prices on the spot market have risen as a result of a perceived shortage of memory that has been interpreted as impacting not only automobiles, but every application using chips.</p><p><blockquote>这种分叉显然是 “半导体短缺 ”的结果，现货市场的价格上涨是因为人们认为存储器短缺，这不仅影响了汽车，还影响了所有使用芯片的应用。</blockquote></p><p> TrendForce attempted to explain the shortage is due to stockpiling by PC suppliers, and I agree, which I also attributed to the DRAM collapse in 2000.I discussed stockpiling and hoarding as a major factor in 2000 and 2020, in a June 24, 2021 Semiconductor Deep Dive Marketplace newsletter articlehere.</p><p><blockquote>TrendForce 试图解释短缺是由于 PC 供应商的库存造成的，我同意，我也将其归因于 2000 年 DRAM 崩溃。我在 2021 年 6 月 24 日的一篇半导体深度潜水市场时事通讯文章此处。</blockquote></p><p> However, TrendForce’s statement in its press release of downward pressure on price hikes runs counter to the data in Chart 5 that contract prices have continued to increase unabated.</p><p><blockquote>然而，TrendForce 在新闻稿中关于价格上涨下行压力的声明与图表 5 中合同价格持续上涨的数据背道而驰。</blockquote></p><p>   “Regarding the contract market, PC OEMs currently carry relatively high levels of DRAM inventory because they substantially stocked up on PC DRAM beforehand in anticipation of an upcoming shortage. Not only has PC OEMs’ high DRAM inventory put downward pressure on possible price hikes for PC DRAM, but the gradual lifting of COVID-related restrictions in Europe and the US will also likely lower the overall demand for notebook computers, thereby pulling down the overall demand for PC DRAM.”  Spot prices are based on what a buyer is willing to pay for an item with an undercurrent of fear, uncertainty, and doubt. For example, in my June 19, 2021, SA article entitled \"Micron Technology: No Shortage, Strong Growth, Period,\" from a commenter:</p><p><blockquote>“在合同市场方面，个人电脑原始设备制造商目前的 DRAM 库存水平相对较高，因为他们预计即将到来的短缺会提前大量储备了个人电脑 DRAM。个人电脑原始设备制造商的高 DRAM 库存不仅对个人电脑 DRAM 可能的涨价构成下行压力，而且欧美与 COVID 相关限制的逐步取消也可能降低笔记本电脑的整体需求，从而拉低个人电脑 DRAM 的整体需求。”现货价格是基于买家愿意为一件带有恐惧、不确定性和怀疑的商品支付的价格。例如，在我于 2021 年 6 月 19 日发表的题为“美光科技：不短缺、强劲增长、时期”的 SA 文章中，一位评论者写道：</blockquote></p><p>   \"And, to lend credence to your microcontroller hypothesis, we recently were told that we would not be able to get a $3 micro for one of our existing products. I don't know if it was a direct result of the Renesas fire or not. But when we looked at the spot market we were quoted $81 for that part (that's not a typo). So now we have to re-design that board to use a different part.\"  About 10 years ago, I was an \"expert witness\" in a solar cell litigation case, and the basis of the complaint was the fact that spot silicon prices increased from $35 per metric ton to more than $500 per metric ton in a period of a few weeks because of silicon shortages. Once silicon manufacturers started making more silicon, prices dropped.</p><p><blockquote>“而且，为了证实您的微控制器假设，我们最近被告知，我们将无法为我们现有的产品之一获得 3 美元的微控制器。我不知道这是否是瑞萨火灾的直接结果。但当我们查看现货市场时，该零件的报价为 81 美元（这不是错别字）。所以现在我们必须重新设计该板以使用不同的部件。”大约10年前，我是一起太阳能电池诉讼案的“专家证人”，投诉的依据是硅短缺导致硅现货价格在几周内从每公吨35美元上涨到每公吨500美元以上。一旦硅制造商开始生产更多的硅，价格就会下降。</blockquote></p><p> Both these examples illustrate that spot prices have no direct bearing on real (contract) prices, and are often transitory.</p><p><blockquote>这两个例子都表明，现货价格对实际（合同）价格没有直接影响，而且通常是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p> Back to the erroneous thesis that a DRAM cycle will end based on spot prices, I show supportive data in Chart 6 that suggests their data is wrong. This chart shows DRAM ASPs as reported directly from Micron, Samsung Electronics(OTC:SSNLF)and SK Hynix(OTC:HXSCL).</p><p><blockquote>回到DRAM周期将基于现货价格结束的错误论点，我在图6中显示了支持性数据，表明他们的数据是错误的。该图表显示了直接从美光、三星电子（场外交易代码：SSNLF）和SK海力士（场外交易代码：HXSCL）报告的DRAM平均售价。</blockquote></p><p> Comparing Chart 5 and Chart 6, it is clear that data directly from the DRAM suppliers matches the positive contract prices and not spot prices. Readers must remember also that spot prices represent only 10% of the DRAM prices paid by customers. Contract prices represent 90% of actual prices.</p><p><blockquote>比较图表5和图表6，很明显，直接来自DRAM供应商的数据匹配的是正合同价格而不是现货价格。读者还必须记住，现货价格仅占客户支付的DRAM价格的10%。合约价格占实际价格的90%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d56577da5391c86374739262f773c7f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 6</p><p><blockquote>图表6</blockquote></p><p> Chart 7 shows memory ASPs on a three-month moving average from the SIA (Semiconductor Industry Association). Again, comparing Chart 7 with Chart 5, it is clear that the contract prices are the more valid metric.</p><p><blockquote>图表 7 显示了 SIA（半导体行业协会）三个月移动平均值上的存储器平均售价。同样，比较图表7和图表5，很明显合同价格是更有效的指标。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be8f41d833e46a0145982559a7e23732\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 7</p><p><blockquote>图表7</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investor Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者要点</b></blockquote></p><p> The recent press release from TrendForce and a report a day later by Morgan Stanley is based in data that's irrational and illogical. Their analysis is based on:</p><p><blockquote>TrendForce最近的新闻稿和摩根士丹利一天后的报告都是基于非理性和不合逻辑的数据。他们的分析基于：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>PC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.</li>  <li>A drop in PC sales, which have been in decline and only increased due to the pandemic, but low PC sales correlate with high ASPs (Charts 3 and 5).</li>  <li>Failure to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year and that metric shows no abatement in growth.</li>  <li>DRAM spot prices instead of contract prices, the latter of which correlate with reporting data supplied by DRAM manufacturer.</li> </ul> Strong demand for memory chips will continue through 2023 as supply is held in check not by shortages but judicious capex spend. The strong demand for memory chips such as 5G, servers, and EVs present a continuing tailwind for Micron Technology.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>PC DRAM ASP仅占DRAM总需求的15%。</li><li>个人电脑销量下降，一直在下降，只是由于疫情而增加，但低个人电脑销量与高平均售价相关（图3和图5）。</li><li>未能认识到每台PC的DRAM含量每年都在增加，并且该指标显示增长没有减少。</li><li>DRAM现货价格而不是合同价格，后者与DRAM制造商提供的报告数据相关。</li></ul>对存储芯片的强劲需求将持续到 2023 年，因为供应不是受到短缺的控制，而是受到合理的资本支出的控制。5G、服务器和电动汽车等存储芯片的强劲需求为美光科技带来了持续的推动力。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Micron Technology: Winter May Be Coming, But Not This Year... Nor The Next<blockquote>美光科技：冬天可能来了，但不是今年……也不是下一个</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicron Technology: Winter May Be Coming, But Not This Year... Nor The Next<blockquote>美光科技：冬天可能来了，但不是今年……也不是下一个</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-17 11:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The Morgan Stanley downgrade of Memory chips was based on PC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.</li>  <li>The report addressed dropping PC sales, but failed to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year.</li>  <li>The report focuses on DRAM spot prices, instead of contract prices that make up 90% of supplier ASPs.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72f0a26068ce9a56688977e5a0dd9578\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>borisyankov/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>摩根士丹利下调存储芯片评级是基于PC DRAM平均售价，这些平均售价仅占DRAM总需求的15%。</li><li>该报告谈到了个人电脑销量的下降，但没有认识到每台个人电脑的DRAM含量每年都在增加。</li><li>该报告重点关注DRAM现货价格，而不是占供应商平均售价90%的合同价格。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>borisyankov/E+ 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley analysts downgraded Micron(NASDAQ:MU)to equal weight from overweight, in their industry report titled, “Memory - Winter Is Coming.\" MS cautioned of a coming cool down in the DRAM memory business that could lead to lower DRAM prices.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利分析师在其题为《内存--冬天来了》的行业报告中，将美光（纳斯达克股票代码：MU）的评级从跑赢大盘下调至同等权重。微软警告说，DRAM 内存业务即将降温，这可能会导致 DRAM 价格下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley noted that</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利指出，</blockquote></p><p>   “DRAM conditions are losing steam, and our inflection signposts suggest caution from here there’s been a change from mid-cycle to late cycle, and that this phase-change has historically meant a challenging backdrop for forward returns.”  Micron Technology’sstock had its worst single-day percentage decline since March 16, 2020, when it fell 19.8%. MU's stock price for the past year is shown in Chart 1, illustrating the sell-off in the past few days coupled with a drop of more than 25% since reaching a high on April 12, 2021.</p><p><blockquote>“DRAM 状况正在失去动力，我们的拐点路标表明，从周期中期到周期后期已经发生了变化，这种相位变化在历史上意味着远期回报的背景充满挑战。”美光科技的股票创下了自 2020 年 3 月 16 日以来的最大单日百分比跌幅，当时下跌了 19.8%。MU过去一年的股价如图1所示，说明了过去几天的抛售，以及自2021年4月12日触及高点以来下跌超过25%的情况。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea0b20556a40eb39c18b7aa1ed295e1c\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"416\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 1</p><p><blockquote>图表1</blockquote></p><p> This article presents data that refutes the underlying case presented by Morgan Stanley that worsening DRAM demand is contributing to an acceleration of the end of the current memory upcycle leading to the start of a down cycle in 1Q 2022.</p><p><blockquote>本文提供的数据反驳了摩根士丹利提出的基本案例，即不断恶化的DRAM需求正在加速当前内存上升周期的结束，从而导致2022年第一季度开始下降周期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Morgan Stanley’s Misinterpretation of Data#1 Small Percentage of PC DRAM</b></p><p><blockquote><b>摩根士丹利对数据的误解#1 个人电脑 DRAM 所占比例很小</b></blockquote></p><p> The first point is the emphasis by Morgan Stanley on PC DRAM price erosion as a harbinger for the downturn in the DRAM market. Why? Because PCs represent just 15% of the demand for DRAMs,as shown in Chart 2, according to our report entitled “<i>Hot ICs: A Market Analysis of Artificial Intelligence, 5G, CMOS Image Sensors, and Memory Chips.\"</i></p><p><blockquote>第一点是摩根士丹利强调个人电脑DRAM价格下降是DRAM市场低迷的先兆。为什么？因为PC仅占DRAM需求的15%，如图2所示，根据我们题为“<i>热门集成电路：人工智能、5G、CMOS 图像传感器和存储芯片的市场分析。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b40e66f4b73b27303075791c19fe36f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart 2</p><p><blockquote>图表2</blockquote></p><p> <b>#2 Increased DRAM content per PC</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#2 每台PC的DRAM容量增加</b></blockquote></p><p> The 15% DRAM demand for PCs is hardly enough to cause a stop in the memory cycle. But that's beside the point. Morgan Stanley overlooks the fact that DRAM content per PC increases each year even if the PC market has slowed.</p><p><blockquote>个人电脑15%的DRAM需求几乎不足以导致内存周期停止。但那是题外话。摩根士丹利忽略了这样一个事实，即即使个人电脑市场放缓，每台个人电脑的DRAM含量每年都在增加。</blockquote></p><p> Chart 3 shows that PC unit shipments between 2015 and 2023. Indeed, my forecast shows that PCs will decrease in 2022 and 2023, but the decrease is due to a normalization of PC demand following the extraordinary demand for PCs during the work/study/stay-at-home orders associated with the COVID pandemic in 2020 that carried over into 2021.</p><p><blockquote>图 3 显示了 2015 年至 2023 年间 PC 单位出货量。事实上，我的预测显示个人电脑将在2022年和2023年下降，但下降是由于个人电脑需求正常化，此前2020年与COVID疫情相关的工作/学习/居家订单期间对个人电脑的异常需求一直持续到2021年。</blockquote></p><p> Prior to 2020, the PC market was decreasing, and I anticipate a corresponding return normalcy with a decrease of a few percent per year in 2022 and 2023. I estimate that DRAM content per PC will increase from 5.5 GB in 2015 to 14 GB in 2023. That’s an increase of 2.5 times during this period.</p><p><blockquote>2020 年之前，个人电脑市场正在下降，我预计 2022 年和 2023 年回报率将达到相应的正常水平，每年下降几个百分点。我估计每台电脑的DRAM内容将从2015年的5.5 GB增加到2023年的14 GB。这一时期增长了 2.5 倍。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732cd4948d7209d76ccb4f7628560ab\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 3</p><p><blockquote>图表3</blockquote></p><p> Thus, although PC units will decrease, DRAM content will increase during the next two years. But factoring in the increase in DRAM content per PC, we see in Chart 4 a much different growth in DRAMs.</p><p><blockquote>因此，尽管PC单元将减少，但DRAM含量将在未来两年内增加。但是考虑到每台PC的DRAM含量的增加，我们在图4中看到DRAM的增长截然不同。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c21d24f41f7f77bc00c62ed82b44f62\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart 4</p><p><blockquote>图表4</blockquote></p><p> <b>#3 Spot ASPs are Different than Contract ASPs</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#3 现货平均售价不同于合约平均售价</b></blockquote></p><p> Chart 5 shows DRAM data comparison for Spot ASPs vs Contract ASPs. The entire rationale for the TrendForce and Morgan Stanley reports is the drop in spot prices in 2021, and the resultant end of the current memory cycle.</p><p><blockquote>图5显示了现货ASP与合同ASP的DRAM数据比较。TrendForce 和摩根士丹利报告的全部理由是 2021 年现货价格下跌，以及当前内存周期的结束。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5a2774dcaff2d53edd141e0cc1e2d13\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart 5</p><p><blockquote>图表5</blockquote></p><p> Why they chose the drop in spot prices as the catalyst for the end of the cycle vs. the increase in contract prices as a catalyst for strong memory growth is irrational and illogical.</p><p><blockquote>为什么他们选择现货价格下跌作为周期结束的催化剂，而选择合同价格上涨作为内存强劲增长的催化剂，这是非理性和不合逻辑的。</blockquote></p><p> Importantly, there's no correlation between PC sales (Chart 3) and prices (Chart 5). In Chart 3, PC sales were at their lowest period (2017 and 2018) while ASPs were at their highest. Thus, there's an inverse relationship between PC sales and ASPs, not a direct relationship that would add credibility to the MS forecast.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是，个人电脑销量（图表3）和价格（图表5）之间没有相关性。在图表3中，个人电脑销量处于最低水平（2017年和2018年），而平均售价处于最高水平。因此，个人电脑销量和平均售价之间存在反比关系，而不是增加微软预测可信度的直接关系。</blockquote></p><p> <b>#4 Spot ASPs Are a Function of Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD Factor)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#4 Spot ASP是恐惧、不确定性和怀疑的函数（FUD因子）</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Also note that Chart 5 shows that spot and contract prices tracked between October 2016 and the end of 2000. A bifurcation in spot vs contract prices then took place in which spot prices escalated and then collapsed, while contract prices continued a strong growth with no abatement.</p><p><blockquote>另请注意，图表 5 显示了 2016 年 10 月至 2000 年底期间跟踪的现货和合约价格。现货价格与合约价格随后出现分叉，现货价格先涨后跌，而合约价格则持续强劲增长，且有增无减。</blockquote></p><p> This bifurcation is clearly the result of the “semiconductor shortage” in which prices on the spot market have risen as a result of a perceived shortage of memory that has been interpreted as impacting not only automobiles, but every application using chips.</p><p><blockquote>这种分叉显然是 “半导体短缺 ”的结果，现货市场的价格上涨是因为人们认为存储器短缺，这不仅影响了汽车，还影响了所有使用芯片的应用。</blockquote></p><p> TrendForce attempted to explain the shortage is due to stockpiling by PC suppliers, and I agree, which I also attributed to the DRAM collapse in 2000.I discussed stockpiling and hoarding as a major factor in 2000 and 2020, in a June 24, 2021 Semiconductor Deep Dive Marketplace newsletter articlehere.</p><p><blockquote>TrendForce 试图解释短缺是由于 PC 供应商的库存造成的，我同意，我也将其归因于 2000 年 DRAM 崩溃。我在 2021 年 6 月 24 日的一篇半导体深度潜水市场时事通讯文章此处。</blockquote></p><p> However, TrendForce’s statement in its press release of downward pressure on price hikes runs counter to the data in Chart 5 that contract prices have continued to increase unabated.</p><p><blockquote>然而，TrendForce 在新闻稿中关于价格上涨下行压力的声明与图表 5 中合同价格持续上涨的数据背道而驰。</blockquote></p><p>   “Regarding the contract market, PC OEMs currently carry relatively high levels of DRAM inventory because they substantially stocked up on PC DRAM beforehand in anticipation of an upcoming shortage. Not only has PC OEMs’ high DRAM inventory put downward pressure on possible price hikes for PC DRAM, but the gradual lifting of COVID-related restrictions in Europe and the US will also likely lower the overall demand for notebook computers, thereby pulling down the overall demand for PC DRAM.”  Spot prices are based on what a buyer is willing to pay for an item with an undercurrent of fear, uncertainty, and doubt. For example, in my June 19, 2021, SA article entitled \"Micron Technology: No Shortage, Strong Growth, Period,\" from a commenter:</p><p><blockquote>“在合同市场方面，个人电脑原始设备制造商目前的 DRAM 库存水平相对较高，因为他们预计即将到来的短缺会提前大量储备了个人电脑 DRAM。个人电脑原始设备制造商的高 DRAM 库存不仅对个人电脑 DRAM 可能的涨价构成下行压力，而且欧美与 COVID 相关限制的逐步取消也可能降低笔记本电脑的整体需求，从而拉低个人电脑 DRAM 的整体需求。”现货价格是基于买家愿意为一件带有恐惧、不确定性和怀疑的商品支付的价格。例如，在我于 2021 年 6 月 19 日发表的题为“美光科技：不短缺、强劲增长、时期”的 SA 文章中，一位评论者写道：</blockquote></p><p>   \"And, to lend credence to your microcontroller hypothesis, we recently were told that we would not be able to get a $3 micro for one of our existing products. I don't know if it was a direct result of the Renesas fire or not. But when we looked at the spot market we were quoted $81 for that part (that's not a typo). So now we have to re-design that board to use a different part.\"  About 10 years ago, I was an \"expert witness\" in a solar cell litigation case, and the basis of the complaint was the fact that spot silicon prices increased from $35 per metric ton to more than $500 per metric ton in a period of a few weeks because of silicon shortages. Once silicon manufacturers started making more silicon, prices dropped.</p><p><blockquote>“而且，为了证实您的微控制器假设，我们最近被告知，我们将无法为我们现有的产品之一获得 3 美元的微控制器。我不知道这是否是瑞萨火灾的直接结果。但当我们查看现货市场时，该零件的报价为 81 美元（这不是错别字）。所以现在我们必须重新设计该板以使用不同的部件。”大约10年前，我是一起太阳能电池诉讼案的“专家证人”，投诉的依据是硅短缺导致硅现货价格在几周内从每公吨35美元上涨到每公吨500美元以上。一旦硅制造商开始生产更多的硅，价格就会下降。</blockquote></p><p> Both these examples illustrate that spot prices have no direct bearing on real (contract) prices, and are often transitory.</p><p><blockquote>这两个例子都表明，现货价格对实际（合同）价格没有直接影响，而且通常是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p> Back to the erroneous thesis that a DRAM cycle will end based on spot prices, I show supportive data in Chart 6 that suggests their data is wrong. This chart shows DRAM ASPs as reported directly from Micron, Samsung Electronics(OTC:SSNLF)and SK Hynix(OTC:HXSCL).</p><p><blockquote>回到DRAM周期将基于现货价格结束的错误论点，我在图6中显示了支持性数据，表明他们的数据是错误的。该图表显示了直接从美光、三星电子（场外交易代码：SSNLF）和SK海力士（场外交易代码：HXSCL）报告的DRAM平均售价。</blockquote></p><p> Comparing Chart 5 and Chart 6, it is clear that data directly from the DRAM suppliers matches the positive contract prices and not spot prices. Readers must remember also that spot prices represent only 10% of the DRAM prices paid by customers. Contract prices represent 90% of actual prices.</p><p><blockquote>比较图表5和图表6，很明显，直接来自DRAM供应商的数据匹配的是正合同价格而不是现货价格。读者还必须记住，现货价格仅占客户支付的DRAM价格的10%。合约价格占实际价格的90%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d56577da5391c86374739262f773c7f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 6</p><p><blockquote>图表6</blockquote></p><p> Chart 7 shows memory ASPs on a three-month moving average from the SIA (Semiconductor Industry Association). Again, comparing Chart 7 with Chart 5, it is clear that the contract prices are the more valid metric.</p><p><blockquote>图表 7 显示了 SIA（半导体行业协会）三个月移动平均值上的存储器平均售价。同样，比较图表7和图表5，很明显合同价格是更有效的指标。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be8f41d833e46a0145982559a7e23732\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 7</p><p><blockquote>图表7</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investor Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者要点</b></blockquote></p><p> The recent press release from TrendForce and a report a day later by Morgan Stanley is based in data that's irrational and illogical. Their analysis is based on:</p><p><blockquote>TrendForce最近的新闻稿和摩根士丹利一天后的报告都是基于非理性和不合逻辑的数据。他们的分析基于：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>PC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.</li>  <li>A drop in PC sales, which have been in decline and only increased due to the pandemic, but low PC sales correlate with high ASPs (Charts 3 and 5).</li>  <li>Failure to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year and that metric shows no abatement in growth.</li>  <li>DRAM spot prices instead of contract prices, the latter of which correlate with reporting data supplied by DRAM manufacturer.</li> </ul> Strong demand for memory chips will continue through 2023 as supply is held in check not by shortages but judicious capex spend. The strong demand for memory chips such as 5G, servers, and EVs present a continuing tailwind for Micron Technology.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>PC DRAM ASP仅占DRAM总需求的15%。</li><li>个人电脑销量下降，一直在下降，只是由于疫情而增加，但低个人电脑销量与高平均售价相关（图3和图5）。</li><li>未能认识到每台PC的DRAM含量每年都在增加，并且该指标显示增长没有减少。</li><li>DRAM现货价格而不是合同价格，后者与DRAM制造商提供的报告数据相关。</li></ul>对存储芯片的强劲需求将持续到 2023 年，因为供应不是受到短缺的控制，而是受到合理的资本支出的控制。5G、服务器和电动汽车等存储芯片的强劲需求为美光科技带来了持续的推动力。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4449857-micron-technology-winter-may-be-coming-but-not-this-year-nor-the-next\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MU":"美光科技"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4449857-micron-technology-winter-may-be-coming-but-not-this-year-nor-the-next","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162723925","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe Morgan Stanley downgrade of Memory chips was based on PC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.\nThe report addressed dropping PC sales, but failed to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year.\nThe report focuses on DRAM spot prices, instead of contract prices that make up 90% of supplier ASPs.\n\nborisyankov/E+ via Getty Images\nMorgan Stanley analysts downgraded Micron(NASDAQ:MU)to equal weight from overweight, in their industry report titled, “Memory - Winter Is Coming.\" MS cautioned of a coming cool down in the DRAM memory business that could lead to lower DRAM prices.\nMorgan Stanley noted that\n\n “DRAM conditions are losing steam, and our inflection signposts suggest caution from here there’s been a change from mid-cycle to late cycle, and that this phase-change has historically meant a challenging backdrop for forward returns.”\n\nMicron Technology’sstock had its worst single-day percentage decline since March 16, 2020, when it fell 19.8%. MU's stock price for the past year is shown in Chart 1, illustrating the sell-off in the past few days coupled with a drop of more than 25% since reaching a high on April 12, 2021.\n\nChart 1\nThis article presents data that refutes the underlying case presented by Morgan Stanley that worsening DRAM demand is contributing to an acceleration of the end of the current memory upcycle leading to the start of a down cycle in 1Q 2022.\nMorgan Stanley’s Misinterpretation of Data#1 Small Percentage of PC DRAM\nThe first point is the emphasis by Morgan Stanley on PC DRAM price erosion as a harbinger for the downturn in the DRAM market. Why? Because PCs represent just 15% of the demand for DRAMs,as shown in Chart 2, according to our report entitled “Hot ICs: A Market Analysis of Artificial Intelligence, 5G, CMOS Image Sensors, and Memory Chips.\"\nChart 2\n#2 Increased DRAM content per PC\nThe 15% DRAM demand for PCs is hardly enough to cause a stop in the memory cycle. But that's beside the point. Morgan Stanley overlooks the fact that DRAM content per PC increases each year even if the PC market has slowed.\nChart 3 shows that PC unit shipments between 2015 and 2023. Indeed, my forecast shows that PCs will decrease in 2022 and 2023, but the decrease is due to a normalization of PC demand following the extraordinary demand for PCs during the work/study/stay-at-home orders associated with the COVID pandemic in 2020 that carried over into 2021.\nPrior to 2020, the PC market was decreasing, and I anticipate a corresponding return normalcy with a decrease of a few percent per year in 2022 and 2023. I estimate that DRAM content per PC will increase from 5.5 GB in 2015 to 14 GB in 2023. That’s an increase of 2.5 times during this period.\n\nChart 3\nThus, although PC units will decrease, DRAM content will increase during the next two years. But factoring in the increase in DRAM content per PC, we see in Chart 4 a much different growth in DRAMs.\nChart 4\n#3 Spot ASPs are Different than Contract ASPs\nChart 5 shows DRAM data comparison for Spot ASPs vs Contract ASPs. The entire rationale for the TrendForce and Morgan Stanley reports is the drop in spot prices in 2021, and the resultant end of the current memory cycle.\nChart 5\nWhy they chose the drop in spot prices as the catalyst for the end of the cycle vs. the increase in contract prices as a catalyst for strong memory growth is irrational and illogical.\nImportantly, there's no correlation between PC sales (Chart 3) and prices (Chart 5). In Chart 3, PC sales were at their lowest period (2017 and 2018) while ASPs were at their highest. Thus, there's an inverse relationship between PC sales and ASPs, not a direct relationship that would add credibility to the MS forecast.\n#4 Spot ASPs Are a Function of Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD Factor)\nAlso note that Chart 5 shows that spot and contract prices tracked between October 2016 and the end of 2000. A bifurcation in spot vs contract prices then took place in which spot prices escalated and then collapsed, while contract prices continued a strong growth with no abatement.\nThis bifurcation is clearly the result of the “semiconductor shortage” in which prices on the spot market have risen as a result of a perceived shortage of memory that has been interpreted as impacting not only automobiles, but every application using chips.\nTrendForce attempted to explain the shortage is due to stockpiling by PC suppliers, and I agree, which I also attributed to the DRAM collapse in 2000.I discussed stockpiling and hoarding as a major factor in 2000 and 2020, in a June 24, 2021 Semiconductor Deep Dive Marketplace newsletter articlehere.\nHowever, TrendForce’s statement in its press release of downward pressure on price hikes runs counter to the data in Chart 5 that contract prices have continued to increase unabated.\n\n “Regarding the contract market, PC OEMs currently carry relatively high levels of DRAM inventory because they substantially stocked up on PC DRAM beforehand in anticipation of an upcoming shortage. Not only has PC OEMs’ high DRAM inventory put downward pressure on possible price hikes for PC DRAM, but the gradual lifting of COVID-related restrictions in Europe and the US will also likely lower the overall demand for notebook computers, thereby pulling down the overall demand for PC DRAM.”\n\nSpot prices are based on what a buyer is willing to pay for an item with an undercurrent of fear, uncertainty, and doubt. For example, in my June 19, 2021, SA article entitled \"Micron Technology: No Shortage, Strong Growth, Period,\" from a commenter:\n\n \"And, to lend credence to your microcontroller hypothesis, we recently were told that we would not be able to get a $3 micro for one of our existing products. I don't know if it was a direct result of the Renesas fire or not. But when we looked at the spot market we were quoted $81 for that part (that's not a typo). So now we have to re-design that board to use a different part.\"\n\nAbout 10 years ago, I was an \"expert witness\" in a solar cell litigation case, and the basis of the complaint was the fact that spot silicon prices increased from $35 per metric ton to more than $500 per metric ton in a period of a few weeks because of silicon shortages. Once silicon manufacturers started making more silicon, prices dropped.\nBoth these examples illustrate that spot prices have no direct bearing on real (contract) prices, and are often transitory.\nBack to the erroneous thesis that a DRAM cycle will end based on spot prices, I show supportive data in Chart 6 that suggests their data is wrong. This chart shows DRAM ASPs as reported directly from Micron, Samsung Electronics(OTC:SSNLF)and SK Hynix(OTC:HXSCL).\nComparing Chart 5 and Chart 6, it is clear that data directly from the DRAM suppliers matches the positive contract prices and not spot prices. Readers must remember also that spot prices represent only 10% of the DRAM prices paid by customers. Contract prices represent 90% of actual prices.\n\nChart 6\nChart 7 shows memory ASPs on a three-month moving average from the SIA (Semiconductor Industry Association). Again, comparing Chart 7 with Chart 5, it is clear that the contract prices are the more valid metric.\n\nChart 7\nInvestor Takeaway\nThe recent press release from TrendForce and a report a day later by Morgan Stanley is based in data that's irrational and illogical. Their analysis is based on:\n\nPC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.\nA drop in PC sales, which have been in decline and only increased due to the pandemic, but low PC sales correlate with high ASPs (Charts 3 and 5).\nFailure to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year and that metric shows no abatement in growth.\nDRAM spot prices instead of contract prices, the latter of which correlate with reporting data supplied by DRAM manufacturer.\n\nStrong demand for memory chips will continue through 2023 as supply is held in check not by shortages but judicious capex spend. The strong demand for memory chips such as 5G, servers, and EVs present a continuing tailwind for Micron Technology.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1742,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127582278,"gmtCreate":1624856798494,"gmtModify":1631889458439,"author":{"id":"3581681532128922","authorId":"3581681532128922","name":"tiototo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23c32a08fbf6fc88a1bda4f6b4f99ddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581681532128922","idStr":"3581681532128922"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Agree..","listText":"Agree..","text":"Agree..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127582278","repostId":"1177492181","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177492181","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624849703,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1177492181?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-28 11:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Stock Market Hasn’t Been This Placid in Years<blockquote>股市多年来从未如此平静过</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177492181","media":"WSJ","summary":"The U.S. stock marketis as calm as can beon the surface, while churning underneath more than it has ","content":"<p>The U.S. stock marketis as calm as can beon the surface, while churning underneath more than it has in decades.</p><p><blockquote>美国股市表面上尽可能平静，但背后却比几十年来更加动荡。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 is so quiet it is almost disconcerting. The index hasn’t had a 5% correction based on closing prices since the end of October; no wonder the new day traders who started buying shares in lockdown think the market only goes up. The last time the S&amp;P was this serene for so long was in 2017, a period of calm that ended with the volatility crash early in 2018—although back then it was even quieter for much longer.</p><p><blockquote>标普500如此安静，几乎令人不安。自 10 月底以来，该指数从未根据收盘价进行过 5% 的调整；难怪开始锁定购买股票的新日内交易者认为市场只会上涨。标准普尔上一次如此平静是在 2017 年，那是一段平静时期，随着 2018 年初的波动性崩盘而结束——尽管当时平静的时间甚至更长。</blockquote></p><p> Yet, look at the performance of types of stocks, and they have been swinging around much more than they usually do. Investors have been switching their bets between industries at a pace not seen outside of crises; March brought the biggest gap between the best and worst-performing sectors since 2002.</p><p><blockquote>然而，看看各类股票的表现，它们的波动幅度比平时要大得多。投资者一直在以危机之外前所未有的速度在行业之间转换押注；3月份出现了自2002年以来表现最好和最差的行业之间的最大差距。</blockquote></p><p> The link between moves in growth stocks and cheap “value” stocks is the weakest—measured by the correlation—since 1995; investors are using them as proxies for betting for or against economic recovery.</p><p><blockquote>以相关性衡量，成长型股票和廉价“价值”股票之间的联系是自 1995 年以来最弱的；投资者正在利用它们作为押注经济复苏或反对经济复苏的代理人。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, big and small stocks last moved so independently of each other during the dot-com bubble of 2000, never a reassuring sign.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，大盘股和小盘股上一次如此独立地走势是在 2000 年的互联网泡沫时期，这从来都不是一个令人放心的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> I think this is another aspect of TINA: There Is No Alternative to stocks. With Treasurys, corporate bonds and cashoffering meager or zero return, stocks offer the best hope of gains. Investors who would previously have shifted money from stocks to bonds or vice versa now just switch from one sort of stock to another—so falls in one are offset by gains in another.</p><p><blockquote>我认为这是蒂娜的另一个方面：除了股票没有其他选择。由于国债、公司债券和现金回报率微薄或为零，股票提供了最大的收益希望。以前会将资金从股票转向债券，反之亦然的投资者现在只是从一种股票转向另一种股票——因此一种股票的下跌会被另一种股票的上涨所抵消。</blockquote></p><p> There is no guarantee that it continues this way, of course. Bring enough fear into play and investors will bolt for the exits no matter how low cash yields are, just as they did in March last year. But while times seem pretty good, it is hard to justify buying a long-dated bond yielding far less than inflation. And times do seem pretty good.</p><p><blockquote>当然，不能保证它会继续这样下去。让足够的恐惧发挥作用，无论现金收益率有多低，投资者都会赶紧退出，就像他们去年 3 月所做的那样。但是，尽管形势看起来很好，但很难证明购买收益率远低于通货膨胀率的长期债券是合理的。时光看起来确实不错。</blockquote></p><p> A widespread theory among those of a cautious disposition is that stocks just keep going up because a massive bubble has been inflated by cheap money and government stimulus. Stocks haven’t been so expensive since 2000, while a bubble mentality is obvious in the wild overtrading of fashionable stocks. A cluster of small stocks popular with retail tradershas often featured at the topof the most-traded lists this year, notablyGameStopandAMC Entertainmentbut also favorites such as Virgin Galactic andBlackBerry.</p><p><blockquote>持谨慎态度的人普遍认为，股市之所以持续上涨，是因为廉价资金和政府刺激措施助长了巨大的泡沫。自 2000 年以来，股票从未如此昂贵，而时尚股票的疯狂过度交易则明显带有泡沫心态。一组深受散户交易员欢迎的小型股票经常出现在今年交易量最大的榜单上，特别是 GameStoPandAMC Entertainment，但也有维珍银河和黑莓等热门股票。</blockquote></p><p> It is undeniable that stocks are far more expensive than usual. But bubbles usually involve lots of volatility as they inflate, not a calm exterior and turmoil within, because every little price drop is magnified by others fearful that the bubble is about to pop. In 1999 there were at least nine drops of more than 5% in the S&amp;P 500, and from its intraday peak in July to the October low it fell 13%.</p><p><blockquote>不可否认，股票比平时贵得多。但泡沫在膨胀时通常会有很大的波动性，而不是外表平静、内心动荡，因为价格的每一次小幅下跌都会被其他人放大，他们担心泡沫即将破裂。1999年，标普500至少有9次跌幅超过5%，从7月份的盘中峰值到10月份的低点，跌幅达13%。</blockquote></p><p> This time the most obvious threat to stocks is the Federal Reserve, rather than the market’s overvaluation. If the Fed raises rates, cash and bonds suddenly look much more attractive, and the TINA justification for buying extraordinarily expensive stocks is undermined.</p><p><blockquote>这一次，对股市最明显的威胁是美联储，而不是市场的高估。如果美联储加息，现金和债券突然看起来更具吸引力，蒂娜购买异常昂贵股票的理由就会被削弱。</blockquote></p><p> “You’ve got lots of volatility within the market but not a lot of volatility of the market,” says Robert Buckland, chief global equity strategist at Citigroup. “If there’s an alternative to just owning the index that could change.”</p><p><blockquote>“花旗集团首席全球股票策略师罗伯特-巴克兰（Robert Buckland）说：”市场内部波动很大，但市场波动却不大。“如果除了拥有指数之外还有其他选择，情况可能会有所改变”。</blockquote></p><p> This month’s Fed scare showed just how sensitive stock prices are when it turns out there is an alternative to stocks, of sorts. The Fedraised rates fractionally off the floorby offering 0.05% instead of 0% on its cash-absorbing reverse repurchase agreements, a kind of overnight secured deposit, and instantly sucked in $235 billion extra. Talk of rate increases coming in two years instead of the three previously projected added to pressure on stocks, and the S&amp;P fell just over 2% in three days before resuming its upward climb.</p><p><blockquote>本月的美联储恐慌表明，当股票还有其他选择时，股票价格是多么敏感。美联储在吸收现金的逆回购协议（一种隔夜担保存款）中提供 0.05% 而不是 0% 的利率，略低于底线，并立即额外吸收了 2350 亿美元。关于两年内加息而不是之前预测的三年的说法增加了股市的压力，标准普尔指数在三天内下跌了 2% 多一点，然后恢复了向上攀升。</blockquote></p><p> If that was the reaction to the Fed just barely doing something close to nothing, imagine how scared the market would be if the Fed started a normal rate hiking cycle and made cash attractive again. It isn’t something I think is likely soon, but the number one threat that could bring the turmoil from the depths to the surface of this market is the Fed.</p><p><blockquote>如果这是对美联储几乎什么都没做的反应，想象一下，如果美联储开始正常的加息周期并使现金再次具有吸引力，市场会有多害怕。我认为这种情况不太可能很快发生，但可能将市场深处的动荡带到表面的头号威胁是美联储。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Stock Market Hasn’t Been This Placid in Years<blockquote>股市多年来从未如此平静过</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Stock Market Hasn’t Been This Placid in Years<blockquote>股市多年来从未如此平静过</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">WSJ</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-28 11:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The U.S. stock marketis as calm as can beon the surface, while churning underneath more than it has in decades.</p><p><blockquote>美国股市表面上尽可能平静，但背后却比几十年来更加动荡。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 is so quiet it is almost disconcerting. The index hasn’t had a 5% correction based on closing prices since the end of October; no wonder the new day traders who started buying shares in lockdown think the market only goes up. The last time the S&amp;P was this serene for so long was in 2017, a period of calm that ended with the volatility crash early in 2018—although back then it was even quieter for much longer.</p><p><blockquote>标普500如此安静，几乎令人不安。自 10 月底以来，该指数从未根据收盘价进行过 5% 的调整；难怪开始锁定购买股票的新日内交易者认为市场只会上涨。标准普尔上一次如此平静是在 2017 年，那是一段平静时期，随着 2018 年初的波动性崩盘而结束——尽管当时平静的时间甚至更长。</blockquote></p><p> Yet, look at the performance of types of stocks, and they have been swinging around much more than they usually do. Investors have been switching their bets between industries at a pace not seen outside of crises; March brought the biggest gap between the best and worst-performing sectors since 2002.</p><p><blockquote>然而，看看各类股票的表现，它们的波动幅度比平时要大得多。投资者一直在以危机之外前所未有的速度在行业之间转换押注；3月份出现了自2002年以来表现最好和最差的行业之间的最大差距。</blockquote></p><p> The link between moves in growth stocks and cheap “value” stocks is the weakest—measured by the correlation—since 1995; investors are using them as proxies for betting for or against economic recovery.</p><p><blockquote>以相关性衡量，成长型股票和廉价“价值”股票之间的联系是自 1995 年以来最弱的；投资者正在利用它们作为押注经济复苏或反对经济复苏的代理人。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, big and small stocks last moved so independently of each other during the dot-com bubble of 2000, never a reassuring sign.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，大盘股和小盘股上一次如此独立地走势是在 2000 年的互联网泡沫时期，这从来都不是一个令人放心的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> I think this is another aspect of TINA: There Is No Alternative to stocks. With Treasurys, corporate bonds and cashoffering meager or zero return, stocks offer the best hope of gains. Investors who would previously have shifted money from stocks to bonds or vice versa now just switch from one sort of stock to another—so falls in one are offset by gains in another.</p><p><blockquote>我认为这是蒂娜的另一个方面：除了股票没有其他选择。由于国债、公司债券和现金回报率微薄或为零，股票提供了最大的收益希望。以前会将资金从股票转向债券，反之亦然的投资者现在只是从一种股票转向另一种股票——因此一种股票的下跌会被另一种股票的上涨所抵消。</blockquote></p><p> There is no guarantee that it continues this way, of course. Bring enough fear into play and investors will bolt for the exits no matter how low cash yields are, just as they did in March last year. But while times seem pretty good, it is hard to justify buying a long-dated bond yielding far less than inflation. And times do seem pretty good.</p><p><blockquote>当然，不能保证它会继续这样下去。让足够的恐惧发挥作用，无论现金收益率有多低，投资者都会赶紧退出，就像他们去年 3 月所做的那样。但是，尽管形势看起来很好，但很难证明购买收益率远低于通货膨胀率的长期债券是合理的。时光看起来确实不错。</blockquote></p><p> A widespread theory among those of a cautious disposition is that stocks just keep going up because a massive bubble has been inflated by cheap money and government stimulus. Stocks haven’t been so expensive since 2000, while a bubble mentality is obvious in the wild overtrading of fashionable stocks. A cluster of small stocks popular with retail tradershas often featured at the topof the most-traded lists this year, notablyGameStopandAMC Entertainmentbut also favorites such as Virgin Galactic andBlackBerry.</p><p><blockquote>持谨慎态度的人普遍认为，股市之所以持续上涨，是因为廉价资金和政府刺激措施助长了巨大的泡沫。自 2000 年以来，股票从未如此昂贵，而时尚股票的疯狂过度交易则明显带有泡沫心态。一组深受散户交易员欢迎的小型股票经常出现在今年交易量最大的榜单上，特别是 GameStoPandAMC Entertainment，但也有维珍银河和黑莓等热门股票。</blockquote></p><p> It is undeniable that stocks are far more expensive than usual. But bubbles usually involve lots of volatility as they inflate, not a calm exterior and turmoil within, because every little price drop is magnified by others fearful that the bubble is about to pop. In 1999 there were at least nine drops of more than 5% in the S&amp;P 500, and from its intraday peak in July to the October low it fell 13%.</p><p><blockquote>不可否认，股票比平时贵得多。但泡沫在膨胀时通常会有很大的波动性，而不是外表平静、内心动荡，因为价格的每一次小幅下跌都会被其他人放大，他们担心泡沫即将破裂。1999年，标普500至少有9次跌幅超过5%，从7月份的盘中峰值到10月份的低点，跌幅达13%。</blockquote></p><p> This time the most obvious threat to stocks is the Federal Reserve, rather than the market’s overvaluation. If the Fed raises rates, cash and bonds suddenly look much more attractive, and the TINA justification for buying extraordinarily expensive stocks is undermined.</p><p><blockquote>这一次，对股市最明显的威胁是美联储，而不是市场的高估。如果美联储加息，现金和债券突然看起来更具吸引力，蒂娜购买异常昂贵股票的理由就会被削弱。</blockquote></p><p> “You’ve got lots of volatility within the market but not a lot of volatility of the market,” says Robert Buckland, chief global equity strategist at Citigroup. “If there’s an alternative to just owning the index that could change.”</p><p><blockquote>“花旗集团首席全球股票策略师罗伯特-巴克兰（Robert Buckland）说：”市场内部波动很大，但市场波动却不大。“如果除了拥有指数之外还有其他选择，情况可能会有所改变”。</blockquote></p><p> This month’s Fed scare showed just how sensitive stock prices are when it turns out there is an alternative to stocks, of sorts. The Fedraised rates fractionally off the floorby offering 0.05% instead of 0% on its cash-absorbing reverse repurchase agreements, a kind of overnight secured deposit, and instantly sucked in $235 billion extra. Talk of rate increases coming in two years instead of the three previously projected added to pressure on stocks, and the S&amp;P fell just over 2% in three days before resuming its upward climb.</p><p><blockquote>本月的美联储恐慌表明，当股票还有其他选择时，股票价格是多么敏感。美联储在吸收现金的逆回购协议（一种隔夜担保存款）中提供 0.05% 而不是 0% 的利率，略低于底线，并立即额外吸收了 2350 亿美元。关于两年内加息而不是之前预测的三年的说法增加了股市的压力，标准普尔指数在三天内下跌了 2% 多一点，然后恢复了向上攀升。</blockquote></p><p> If that was the reaction to the Fed just barely doing something close to nothing, imagine how scared the market would be if the Fed started a normal rate hiking cycle and made cash attractive again. It isn’t something I think is likely soon, but the number one threat that could bring the turmoil from the depths to the surface of this market is the Fed.</p><p><blockquote>如果这是对美联储几乎什么都没做的反应，想象一下，如果美联储开始正常的加息周期并使现金再次具有吸引力，市场会有多害怕。我认为这种情况不太可能很快发生，但可能将市场深处的动荡带到表面的头号威胁是美联储。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-stock-market-hasnt-been-this-placid-in-years-11624740199?mod=itp_wsj\">WSJ</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-stock-market-hasnt-been-this-placid-in-years-11624740199?mod=itp_wsj","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177492181","content_text":"The U.S. stock marketis as calm as can beon the surface, while churning underneath more than it has in decades.\nThe S&P 500 is so quiet it is almost disconcerting. The index hasn’t had a 5% correction based on closing prices since the end of October; no wonder the new day traders who started buying shares in lockdown think the market only goes up. The last time the S&P was this serene for so long was in 2017, a period of calm that ended with the volatility crash early in 2018—although back then it was even quieter for much longer.\nYet, look at the performance of types of stocks, and they have been swinging around much more than they usually do. Investors have been switching their bets between industries at a pace not seen outside of crises; March brought the biggest gap between the best and worst-performing sectors since 2002.\nThe link between moves in growth stocks and cheap “value” stocks is the weakest—measured by the correlation—since 1995; investors are using them as proxies for betting for or against economic recovery.\nMeanwhile, big and small stocks last moved so independently of each other during the dot-com bubble of 2000, never a reassuring sign.\nI think this is another aspect of TINA: There Is No Alternative to stocks. With Treasurys, corporate bonds and cashoffering meager or zero return, stocks offer the best hope of gains. Investors who would previously have shifted money from stocks to bonds or vice versa now just switch from one sort of stock to another—so falls in one are offset by gains in another.\nThere is no guarantee that it continues this way, of course. Bring enough fear into play and investors will bolt for the exits no matter how low cash yields are, just as they did in March last year. But while times seem pretty good, it is hard to justify buying a long-dated bond yielding far less than inflation. And times do seem pretty good.\nA widespread theory among those of a cautious disposition is that stocks just keep going up because a massive bubble has been inflated by cheap money and government stimulus. Stocks haven’t been so expensive since 2000, while a bubble mentality is obvious in the wild overtrading of fashionable stocks. A cluster of small stocks popular with retail tradershas often featured at the topof the most-traded lists this year, notablyGameStopandAMC Entertainmentbut also favorites such as Virgin Galactic andBlackBerry.\nIt is undeniable that stocks are far more expensive than usual. But bubbles usually involve lots of volatility as they inflate, not a calm exterior and turmoil within, because every little price drop is magnified by others fearful that the bubble is about to pop. In 1999 there were at least nine drops of more than 5% in the S&P 500, and from its intraday peak in July to the October low it fell 13%.\nThis time the most obvious threat to stocks is the Federal Reserve, rather than the market’s overvaluation. If the Fed raises rates, cash and bonds suddenly look much more attractive, and the TINA justification for buying extraordinarily expensive stocks is undermined.\n“You’ve got lots of volatility within the market but not a lot of volatility of the market,” says Robert Buckland, chief global equity strategist at Citigroup. “If there’s an alternative to just owning the index that could change.”\nThis month’s Fed scare showed just how sensitive stock prices are when it turns out there is an alternative to stocks, of sorts. The Fedraised rates fractionally off the floorby offering 0.05% instead of 0% on its cash-absorbing reverse repurchase agreements, a kind of overnight secured deposit, and instantly sucked in $235 billion extra. Talk of rate increases coming in two years instead of the three previously projected added to pressure on stocks, and the S&P fell just over 2% in three days before resuming its upward climb.\nIf that was the reaction to the Fed just barely doing something close to nothing, imagine how scared the market would be if the Fed started a normal rate hiking cycle and made cash attractive again. It isn’t something I think is likely soon, but the number one threat that could bring the turmoil from the depths to the surface of this market is the Fed.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":955,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124551967,"gmtCreate":1624774134259,"gmtModify":1631892150117,"author":{"id":"3581681532128922","authorId":"3581681532128922","name":"tiototo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23c32a08fbf6fc88a1bda4f6b4f99ddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581681532128922","idStr":"3581681532128922"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Seems good for lomg terms investors&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"Seems good for lomg terms investors&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"Seems good for lomg terms investors [财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124551967","repostId":"2146090006","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1285,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":899016355,"gmtCreate":1628141903777,"gmtModify":1631889458340,"author":{"id":"3581681532128922","authorId":"3581681532128922","name":"tiototo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23c32a08fbf6fc88a1bda4f6b4f99ddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581681532128922","idStr":"3581681532128922"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Huat!","listText":"Huat!","text":"Huat!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/899016355","repostId":"1183934326","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183934326","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628140836,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1183934326?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-05 13:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Robinhood's 126% post-IPO rally puts its founders within reach of a $1.4 billion stock payout<blockquote>Robinhood IPO 后上涨 126%，使其创始人有望获得 14 亿美元的股票派息</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183934326","media":"Markets Insider","summary":"Robinhood co-founders Baiju Bhatt (left) and Vlad Tenev.\n\nRobinhood's post IPO rally of as much as 1","content":"<p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ebea8ef44433d4792daec9801d33fc7\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Robinhood co-founders Baiju Bhatt (left) and Vlad Tenev.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Robinhood 联合创始人 Baiju Bhatt（左）和 Vlad Tenev。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Robinhood's post IPO rally of as much as 126% put its founders within reach of a $1.4 billion payout.</b></li>  <li><b>Co-founders Vlad Tenev and Baiju Bhatt stand to receive 13.8 million shares if Robinhood's stock price closes above $101.50 by 2025.</b></li>  <li><b>Shares of Robinhood hit an intra-day high of $85 on Wednesday, just 19% below the award price.</b></li> </ul> A wild post-IPO rally in shares of&nbsp;Robinhood&nbsp;this week put its co-founders within reach of a $1.4 billion stock payout, according to the&nbsp;company's S-1 filing.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>Robinhood IPO 后股价上涨高达 126%，使其创始人有望获得 14 亿美元的派息。</b></li><li><b>如果 Robinhood 的股价到 2025 年收于 101.50 美元以上，联合创始人 Vlad Tenev 和 Baiju Bhatt 将获得 1380 万股股票。</b></li><li><b>Robinhood 股价周三触及 85 美元的盘中高点，仅比发行价低 19%。</b></li></ul>根据该公司提交的 S-1 文件，Robinhood 股价本周在 IPO 后大幅上涨，使其联合创始人有望获得 14 亿美元的股票派息。</blockquote></p><p> Vlad Tenev and Baiju Bhatt&nbsp;stand to each receive 13.8 million shares&nbsp;if Robinhood's stock price closes above $101.50 by 2025 for an extended period of time. Shares of Robinhood hit an intra-day high of $85 on Wednesday, just 19% below the price needed for Tenev and Bhatt to unlock their stock award.</p><p><blockquote>如果 Robinhood 的股价在 2025 年之前长期收于 101.50 美元以上，Vlad Tenev 和 Baiju Bhatt 将各获得 1380 万股股票。Robinhood 股价周三触及 85 美元的盘中高点，仅比 Tenev 和 Bhatt 解锁股票奖励所需的价格低 19%。</blockquote></p><p> The $101.50 price hurdle is based on the average of the daily volume weighted average of Robinhood's stock price for each day over a consecutive 60-day trading period.</p><p><blockquote>101.50 美元的价格障碍是基于连续 60 天交易期内每天 Robinhood 股票价格的每日成交量加权平均值的平均值。</blockquote></p><p> Robinhood stumbled in its IPO debut last week,with shares falling as much as 12%,but the stock has since staged an impressive rebound and recovered all of its losses and then some. The online trading app staged a&nbsp;two-day rally of as much as 126%&nbsp;on Tuesday and Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>Robinhood 上周首次公开募股 (IPO) 遭遇挫折， 股价下跌高达 12%， 但该股此后出现了令人印象深刻的反弹， 并收复了所有损失， 然后又收复了一些损失。该在线交易应用程序在周二和周三上演了两天高达126%的反弹。</blockquote></p><p> The 13.8 million restrictive stock units were granted to both founders in 2013, but the award terms were revised in May to extend the deadline of the award to 2025. Under the original plan, Tenev and Bhatt would have only received 20% of the stock award if at the time of IPO shares were priced between $30.45 and $50.75, according to the filing.</p><p><blockquote>这1380万限制性股票单位于2013年授予两位创始人，但授予条款在5月份进行了修改，将授予截止日期延长至2025年。文件显示，根据最初的计划，如果 IPO 时股价在 30.45 美元至 50.75 美元之间，Tenev 和 Bhatt 只能获得 20% 的股票奖励。</blockquote></p><p> The company priced its IPO at $38 per share, meaning Tenev and Bhatt would have only received 20% of their stock award if the terms weren't revised.</p><p><blockquote>该公司将 IPO 定价为每股 38 美元，这意味着如果条款不修改，Tenev 和 Bhatt 只能获得 20% 的股票奖励。</blockquote></p><p> Tenev and Bhatt also stand to receive millions of more Robinhood shares if their stock price eventually trades up to $300 per share by the end of this decade. The co-founders were granted an additional RSU equity award, 22 million shares for Tenev and 13 million shares of Bhatt, if the stock price hit a number of price hurdles, starting at $120 and moving up in increments of $30 until topping out at $300.</p><p><blockquote>如果到本十年末，Tenev 和 Bhatt 的股价最终达到每股 300 美元，他们还将获得数百万股 Robinhood 股票。联合创始人将获得额外的RSU股权奖励，即Tenev 2200万股，Bhatt 1300万股，前提是股价达到一些价格障碍，从120美元开始，以30美元的增量上涨，直到达到300美元。</blockquote></p><p> All in all, if successful, the equity awards for Tenev and Bhatt could be worth up to $10.8 billion and $8.1 billion, respectively, assuming both co-founders don't sell a single share of their accumulated equity awards after the last tranche is granted at the $300 per share level.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，如果成功，Tenev 和 Bhatt 的股权奖励价值可能分别高达 108 亿美元和 81 亿美元，假设两位联合创始人在最后一批股权奖励后不出售其累积股权奖励的一股。以每股 300 美元的水平授予。</blockquote></p><p> \"The 2021 Market-Based RSUs are designed to incentivize the Co-Founders toward further growing our share price over and above the price hurdles applicable to the 2019 Market-Based RSUs,\" Robinhood said in the filing.</p><p><blockquote>Robinhood 在文件中表示：“2021 年基于市场的受限制股份单位旨在激励联合创始人进一步提高我们的股价，超过适用于 2019 年基于市场的受限制股份单位的价格障碍。”</blockquote></p><p> In April, Robinhood reduced the annual salary of Tenev and Bhatt to $34,248, which is the 2019 median wage of US workers. Both were previously paid a base salary of $400,000.</p><p><blockquote>4月，Robinhood将Tenev和Bhatt的年薪降至34248美元，这是2019年美国工人的工资中位数。两人之前的基本工资都是40万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Tenev and Bhatt founded Robinhood in 2013. The company has&nbsp;seen its business explode&nbsp;as millions of Americans began investing in the stock market amid the COVID-19 pandemic and government stimulus checks. Epic rallies in&nbsp;dogecoin and meme-stocks like GameStop and AMC Entertainment&nbsp;have also boosted its business in recent months.</p><p><blockquote>Tenev和Bhatt于2013年创立了Robinhood。随着数百万美国人在 COVID-19 大流行和政府刺激检查期间开始投资股市，该公司的业务出现了爆炸式增长。近几个月来，狗狗币以及游戏驿站和AMC院线等模因股票的史诗般的反弹也提振了其业务。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Robinhood's 126% post-IPO rally puts its founders within reach of a $1.4 billion stock payout<blockquote>Robinhood IPO 后上涨 126%，使其创始人有望获得 14 亿美元的股票派息</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRobinhood's 126% post-IPO rally puts its founders within reach of a $1.4 billion stock payout<blockquote>Robinhood IPO 后上涨 126%，使其创始人有望获得 14 亿美元的股票派息</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Markets Insider</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-05 13:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ebea8ef44433d4792daec9801d33fc7\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Robinhood co-founders Baiju Bhatt (left) and Vlad Tenev.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Robinhood 联合创始人 Baiju Bhatt（左）和 Vlad Tenev。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Robinhood's post IPO rally of as much as 126% put its founders within reach of a $1.4 billion payout.</b></li>  <li><b>Co-founders Vlad Tenev and Baiju Bhatt stand to receive 13.8 million shares if Robinhood's stock price closes above $101.50 by 2025.</b></li>  <li><b>Shares of Robinhood hit an intra-day high of $85 on Wednesday, just 19% below the award price.</b></li> </ul> A wild post-IPO rally in shares of&nbsp;Robinhood&nbsp;this week put its co-founders within reach of a $1.4 billion stock payout, according to the&nbsp;company's S-1 filing.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>Robinhood IPO 后股价上涨高达 126%，使其创始人有望获得 14 亿美元的派息。</b></li><li><b>如果 Robinhood 的股价到 2025 年收于 101.50 美元以上，联合创始人 Vlad Tenev 和 Baiju Bhatt 将获得 1380 万股股票。</b></li><li><b>Robinhood 股价周三触及 85 美元的盘中高点，仅比发行价低 19%。</b></li></ul>根据该公司提交的 S-1 文件，Robinhood 股价本周在 IPO 后大幅上涨，使其联合创始人有望获得 14 亿美元的股票派息。</blockquote></p><p> Vlad Tenev and Baiju Bhatt&nbsp;stand to each receive 13.8 million shares&nbsp;if Robinhood's stock price closes above $101.50 by 2025 for an extended period of time. Shares of Robinhood hit an intra-day high of $85 on Wednesday, just 19% below the price needed for Tenev and Bhatt to unlock their stock award.</p><p><blockquote>如果 Robinhood 的股价在 2025 年之前长期收于 101.50 美元以上，Vlad Tenev 和 Baiju Bhatt 将各获得 1380 万股股票。Robinhood 股价周三触及 85 美元的盘中高点，仅比 Tenev 和 Bhatt 解锁股票奖励所需的价格低 19%。</blockquote></p><p> The $101.50 price hurdle is based on the average of the daily volume weighted average of Robinhood's stock price for each day over a consecutive 60-day trading period.</p><p><blockquote>101.50 美元的价格障碍是基于连续 60 天交易期内每天 Robinhood 股票价格的每日成交量加权平均值的平均值。</blockquote></p><p> Robinhood stumbled in its IPO debut last week,with shares falling as much as 12%,but the stock has since staged an impressive rebound and recovered all of its losses and then some. The online trading app staged a&nbsp;two-day rally of as much as 126%&nbsp;on Tuesday and Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>Robinhood 上周首次公开募股 (IPO) 遭遇挫折， 股价下跌高达 12%， 但该股此后出现了令人印象深刻的反弹， 并收复了所有损失， 然后又收复了一些损失。该在线交易应用程序在周二和周三上演了两天高达126%的反弹。</blockquote></p><p> The 13.8 million restrictive stock units were granted to both founders in 2013, but the award terms were revised in May to extend the deadline of the award to 2025. Under the original plan, Tenev and Bhatt would have only received 20% of the stock award if at the time of IPO shares were priced between $30.45 and $50.75, according to the filing.</p><p><blockquote>这1380万限制性股票单位于2013年授予两位创始人，但授予条款在5月份进行了修改，将授予截止日期延长至2025年。文件显示，根据最初的计划，如果 IPO 时股价在 30.45 美元至 50.75 美元之间，Tenev 和 Bhatt 只能获得 20% 的股票奖励。</blockquote></p><p> The company priced its IPO at $38 per share, meaning Tenev and Bhatt would have only received 20% of their stock award if the terms weren't revised.</p><p><blockquote>该公司将 IPO 定价为每股 38 美元，这意味着如果条款不修改，Tenev 和 Bhatt 只能获得 20% 的股票奖励。</blockquote></p><p> Tenev and Bhatt also stand to receive millions of more Robinhood shares if their stock price eventually trades up to $300 per share by the end of this decade. The co-founders were granted an additional RSU equity award, 22 million shares for Tenev and 13 million shares of Bhatt, if the stock price hit a number of price hurdles, starting at $120 and moving up in increments of $30 until topping out at $300.</p><p><blockquote>如果到本十年末，Tenev 和 Bhatt 的股价最终达到每股 300 美元，他们还将获得数百万股 Robinhood 股票。联合创始人将获得额外的RSU股权奖励，即Tenev 2200万股，Bhatt 1300万股，前提是股价达到一些价格障碍，从120美元开始，以30美元的增量上涨，直到达到300美元。</blockquote></p><p> All in all, if successful, the equity awards for Tenev and Bhatt could be worth up to $10.8 billion and $8.1 billion, respectively, assuming both co-founders don't sell a single share of their accumulated equity awards after the last tranche is granted at the $300 per share level.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，如果成功，Tenev 和 Bhatt 的股权奖励价值可能分别高达 108 亿美元和 81 亿美元，假设两位联合创始人在最后一批股权奖励后不出售其累积股权奖励的一股。以每股 300 美元的水平授予。</blockquote></p><p> \"The 2021 Market-Based RSUs are designed to incentivize the Co-Founders toward further growing our share price over and above the price hurdles applicable to the 2019 Market-Based RSUs,\" Robinhood said in the filing.</p><p><blockquote>Robinhood 在文件中表示：“2021 年基于市场的受限制股份单位旨在激励联合创始人进一步提高我们的股价，超过适用于 2019 年基于市场的受限制股份单位的价格障碍。”</blockquote></p><p> In April, Robinhood reduced the annual salary of Tenev and Bhatt to $34,248, which is the 2019 median wage of US workers. Both were previously paid a base salary of $400,000.</p><p><blockquote>4月，Robinhood将Tenev和Bhatt的年薪降至34248美元，这是2019年美国工人的工资中位数。两人之前的基本工资都是40万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Tenev and Bhatt founded Robinhood in 2013. The company has&nbsp;seen its business explode&nbsp;as millions of Americans began investing in the stock market amid the COVID-19 pandemic and government stimulus checks. Epic rallies in&nbsp;dogecoin and meme-stocks like GameStop and AMC Entertainment&nbsp;have also boosted its business in recent months.</p><p><blockquote>Tenev和Bhatt于2013年创立了Robinhood。随着数百万美国人在 COVID-19 大流行和政府刺激检查期间开始投资股市，该公司的业务出现了爆炸式增长。近几个月来，狗狗币以及游戏驿站和AMC院线等模因股票的史诗般的反弹也提振了其业务。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/robinhood-stock-price-ipo-rally-founders-closer-1-billion-payout-2021-8\">Markets Insider</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"HOOD":"Robinhood"},"source_url":"https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/robinhood-stock-price-ipo-rally-founders-closer-1-billion-payout-2021-8","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183934326","content_text":"Robinhood co-founders Baiju Bhatt (left) and Vlad Tenev.\n\nRobinhood's post IPO rally of as much as 126% put its founders within reach of a $1.4 billion payout.\nCo-founders Vlad Tenev and Baiju Bhatt stand to receive 13.8 million shares if Robinhood's stock price closes above $101.50 by 2025.\nShares of Robinhood hit an intra-day high of $85 on Wednesday, just 19% below the award price.\n\nA wild post-IPO rally in shares of Robinhood this week put its co-founders within reach of a $1.4 billion stock payout, according to the company's S-1 filing.\nVlad Tenev and Baiju Bhatt stand to each receive 13.8 million shares if Robinhood's stock price closes above $101.50 by 2025 for an extended period of time. Shares of Robinhood hit an intra-day high of $85 on Wednesday, just 19% below the price needed for Tenev and Bhatt to unlock their stock award.\nThe $101.50 price hurdle is based on the average of the daily volume weighted average of Robinhood's stock price for each day over a consecutive 60-day trading period.\nRobinhood stumbled in its IPO debut last week,with shares falling as much as 12%,but the stock has since staged an impressive rebound and recovered all of its losses and then some. The online trading app staged a two-day rally of as much as 126% on Tuesday and Wednesday.\nThe 13.8 million restrictive stock units were granted to both founders in 2013, but the award terms were revised in May to extend the deadline of the award to 2025. Under the original plan, Tenev and Bhatt would have only received 20% of the stock award if at the time of IPO shares were priced between $30.45 and $50.75, according to the filing.\nThe company priced its IPO at $38 per share, meaning Tenev and Bhatt would have only received 20% of their stock award if the terms weren't revised.\nTenev and Bhatt also stand to receive millions of more Robinhood shares if their stock price eventually trades up to $300 per share by the end of this decade. The co-founders were granted an additional RSU equity award, 22 million shares for Tenev and 13 million shares of Bhatt, if the stock price hit a number of price hurdles, starting at $120 and moving up in increments of $30 until topping out at $300.\nAll in all, if successful, the equity awards for Tenev and Bhatt could be worth up to $10.8 billion and $8.1 billion, respectively, assuming both co-founders don't sell a single share of their accumulated equity awards after the last tranche is granted at the $300 per share level.\n\"The 2021 Market-Based RSUs are designed to incentivize the Co-Founders toward further growing our share price over and above the price hurdles applicable to the 2019 Market-Based RSUs,\" Robinhood said in the filing.\nIn April, Robinhood reduced the annual salary of Tenev and Bhatt to $34,248, which is the 2019 median wage of US workers. Both were previously paid a base salary of $400,000.\nTenev and Bhatt founded Robinhood in 2013. The company has seen its business explode as millions of Americans began investing in the stock market amid the COVID-19 pandemic and government stimulus checks. Epic rallies in dogecoin and meme-stocks like GameStop and AMC Entertainment have also boosted its business in recent months.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HOOD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1807,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":803757859,"gmtCreate":1627467312371,"gmtModify":1631889458348,"author":{"id":"3581681532128922","authorId":"3581681532128922","name":"tiototo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23c32a08fbf6fc88a1bda4f6b4f99ddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581681532128922","idStr":"3581681532128922"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Semicon stocks should have some legs to run further","listText":"Semicon stocks should have some legs to run further","text":"Semicon stocks should have some legs to run further","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/803757859","repostId":"1100886165","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4015,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":149206770,"gmtCreate":1625727079090,"gmtModify":1631889458465,"author":{"id":"3581681532128922","authorId":"3581681532128922","name":"tiototo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23c32a08fbf6fc88a1bda4f6b4f99ddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581681532128922","idStr":"3581681532128922"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"I think it will take some time for investors to regain confidence in the china stocks listed in the US","listText":"I think it will take some time for investors to regain confidence in the china stocks listed in the US","text":"I think it will take some time for investors to regain confidence in the china stocks listed in the US","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/149206770","repostId":"1104195989","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1939,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":123250827,"gmtCreate":1624426129369,"gmtModify":1631892150123,"author":{"id":"3581681532128922","authorId":"3581681532128922","name":"tiototo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23c32a08fbf6fc88a1bda4f6b4f99ddb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581681532128922","idStr":"3581681532128922"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Still relatively stronger compared to altcoins","listText":"Still relatively stronger compared to altcoins","text":"Still relatively stronger compared to altcoins","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123250827","repostId":"2145069164","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":954,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}