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2021-07-29

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S&P 500 ends off day's lows; Powell says Fed still a ways away from rate hikes<blockquote>标普500收于当日低点；鲍威尔称美联储距离加息还有很长的路要走</blockquote>

2021-11-08

Thanks

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2021-09-26

Thanks for sharing

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2021-09-10

Good

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2021-12-14

Thanks

PayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks<blockquote>PayPal最近的价格下跌最终将发生在几乎所有被高估的科技股身上</blockquote>

2021-09-10

Thx

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2021-12-04

Thanks

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2021-09-10

Oh no

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2021-08-30

Good

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2021-12-23

Thanks

Are there any bubbles in Apple stock?<blockquote>苹果股票有泡沫吗？</blockquote>

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11:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Are there any bubbles in Apple stock?<blockquote>苹果股票有泡沫吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1164467804","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Apple stock has risen 34% this year, beating the NASDAQ 100 by a wide margin.This has led some to say that the stock is in a bubble, as its price is rising rapidly.However, Apple's stock price gains are about in line with revenue growth, and actually slower than the most recent quarter's EPS growth.In this article, I will develop a bullish thesis on Apple, arguing that it has a wide moat that will power future growth and profitability.Apple Inc. stock has delivered a solid performance in 2021. U","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple stock has risen 34% this year, beating the NASDAQ 100 by a wide margin.</li>  <li>This has led some to say that the stock is in a bubble, as its price is rising rapidly.</li>  <li>However, Apple's stock price gains are about in line with revenue growth, and actually slower than the most recent quarter's EPS growth.</li>  <li>In this article, I will develop a bullish thesis on Apple, arguing that it has a wide moat that will power future growth and profitability.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e9d29c6db997dd98e087415e7e2acfe\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1036\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果股价今年已上涨34%，大幅跑赢纳斯达克100指数。</li><li>这导致一些人说该股存在泡沫，因为其价格正在迅速上涨。</li><li>然而，苹果的股价涨幅与收入增长大致一致，实际上慢于最近一个季度的每股收益增长。</li><li>在本文中，我将对苹果提出看涨论点，认为它拥有宽阔的护城河，将推动未来的增长和盈利能力。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>贾斯汀·沙利文/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple Inc.</b>(AAPL) stock has delivered a solid performance in 2021. Up 35% for the year, it has solidly outperformed both the NASDAQ 100 and the S&amp;P 500. The latest in a long streak of winning years for the company, Apple’s 2021 shows that a stock is never too big to beat the market.</p><p><blockquote><b>苹果公司。</b>(AAPL)股票在2021年表现稳健。该指数今年上涨了35%，表现强劲，优于纳斯达克100指数和标普500。苹果的2021年业绩是该公司长期获胜的最新一年，它表明股票永远不会太大而无法击败市场。</blockquote></p><p> With that said, there’s no shortage of people who think Apple’s winning run is due for a correction. In recent weeks, we’ve seen a deluge of articles claiming that AAPL is overvalued, with titles like:</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，仍有不少人认为苹果的胜利应该得到修正。最近几周，我们看到大量文章声称AAPL被高估，标题如下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>“Apple Stock is Now a Bubble.”</i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>“苹果股票现在是泡沫。”</i></li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><i>“Why Apple Stock May Be a Bubble That’s Ready to Burst.”</i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>“为什么苹果股票可能是一个即将破裂的泡沫。”</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><i>“Sell AAPL? Why This Expert Sees Apple Stock Dipping 12%”</i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>“出售AAPL？为什么这位专家认为苹果股价下跌12%”</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Not all of these articles have been unambiguously bearish. A few mention positives along with negatives. But generally speaking, the sentiment that Apple is a bubble, or at least overvalued, is becoming common. If you look at&nbsp;TipRanks’ sentiment chart, it shows decisively negative sentiment toward Apple stock.</p><p><blockquote>并非所有这些文章都明确悲观。一些人提到了积极的一面和消极的一面。但总体而言，认为苹果是泡沫，或者至少被高估的情绪正在变得普遍。如果你看看TipRanks的情绪图表，就会发现对苹果股票的情绪明显负面。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce8357bc3eaf626336dbf12b2ff1f410\" tg-width=\"485\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: TipRanks’ sentiment chart</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TipRanks情绪图</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The bearishness of investor sentiment toward Apple becomes clear when we compare it to the sentiment toward&nbsp;<b>Meta Platforms</b>(FB). Meta, a company that is being sued for antitrust violations and getting attacked in the press daily, has a nearly perfect sentiment score. So there is no special tech curse that guarantees negative sentiment toward individual stocks in the sector. Apple’s sentiment problem is indeed its own problem.</p><p><blockquote>当我们将投资者对苹果的悲观情绪与对<b>元平台</b>（FB）。Meta是一家因违反反垄断法而被起诉并每天受到媒体攻击的公司，其情绪得分几乎完美。因此，没有什么特殊的科技诅咒可以保证对该行业个股的负面情绪。苹果的情绪问题确实是自己的问题。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68bc8cf3f8fc200c2b7a9c85e69cc9f2\" tg-width=\"488\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Which begs the question:</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：</blockquote></p><p> <i>Why?</i></p><p><blockquote><i>为什么？</i></blockquote></p><p> Apple is a wide-moat stock, one of the few tech companies that controls both hardware and software for most of its users. Many companies have attempted to copy Apple’s strategy of maximizing revenue by integrating hardware and apps, but few have succeeded at it. If you want the IOS or Mac OS experience, you need an iPhone or Mac. And billions of people want those experiences enough to pay top dollar for Apple’s products. Few other tech companies have that advantage –&nbsp;<b>Nintendo</b>(OTCPK:NTDOY) being one exception, if you count gaming as tech.</p><p><blockquote>苹果是一只拥有宽护城河的股票，是少数几家同时控制大多数用户硬件和软件的科技公司之一。许多公司都试图复制苹果通过整合硬件和应用程序来实现收入最大化的策略，但很少有人成功。如果你想要IOS或Mac OS体验，你需要一部iPhone或Mac。数十亿人想要这些体验，足以支付高价购买苹果的产品。很少有其他科技公司拥有这样的优势——<b>任天堂</b>(OTCPK：NTDOY)如果您将游戏视为技术，则是一个例外。</blockquote></p><p> This makes Apple arguably a&nbsp;wide-moat stock. You need Apple hardware to run Apple software, and people like Apple software. This gives Apple a “monopoly” on a certain collection of software experiences. It does not have a monopoly on any particular device category, but it’s the only company that can provide the integrated&nbsp;Apple ecosystem.</p><p><blockquote>这使得苹果可以说是一只拥有宽阔护城河的股票。你需要苹果硬件来运行苹果软件，人们喜欢苹果软件。这使得苹果“垄断”了某一套软件体验。它并不垄断任何特定的设备类别，但它是唯一一家能够提供集成苹果生态系统的公司。</blockquote></p><p> This advantage has paid dividends to Apple shareholders – both figuratively and literally. Apple is the world’s biggest company by market cap and the&nbsp;fourth-biggest by revenue. Its revenue growth rate has slowed in recent years, but certain segments (such as watches and services) are growing faster than ever. It appears, then, that Apple still has the potential for significant profitability and growth. Accordingly, I’ll develop a bullish thesis on Apple in this article, arguing that its solid economic moat provides potential for its stock to appreciate in the future.</p><p><blockquote>这一优势为苹果股东带来了红利——无论是象征性的还是字面上的。按市值计算，苹果是全球最大的公司，按收入计算，它是全球第四大公司。近年来，其收入增长率有所放缓，但某些细分市场（如手表和服务）的增长速度比以往任何时候都快。因此，苹果似乎仍然具有显着盈利和增长的潜力。因此，我将在本文中对苹果提出看涨论点，认为其坚实的经济护城河为其股票未来升值提供了潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Competitive Landscape</b></p><p><blockquote><b>竞争格局</b></blockquote></p><p> One of the most important things to understand about Apple is its competitive position. The company operates in such a wide variety of different markets that it’s hard to pin down its business beyond simply “tech.” Technically, the company’s SIC Code (industry classification) is 7372, denoting “prepackaged software.” However, this doesn’t capture the full extent of Apple’s business activities, as it’s also involved in hardware, semiconductors,payments&nbsp;and entertainment.</p><p><blockquote>了解苹果最重要的一点是它的竞争地位。该公司在如此广泛的不同市场开展业务，以至于很难确定其业务不仅仅是“技术”。从技术上讲，该公司的SIC代码（行业分类）是7372，表示“预打包软件”。然而，这并没有涵盖苹果业务活动的全部范围，因为它还涉及硬件、半导体、支付和娱乐。</blockquote></p><p> Some of Apple’s most noteworthy competitors include:</p><p><blockquote>苹果最值得注意的一些竞争对手包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Samsung</b>(OTC:SSNLF) - smartphones.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>三星</b>（场外交易代码：SSNLF）-智能手机。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Huawei</b>- smartphones.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>华为</b>-智能手机。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Alphabet</b>(GOOG) - smartphones, laptops, and software.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>Alphabet</b>(GOOG)-智能手机、笔记本电脑和软件。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Microsoft</b>(MSFT) - laptops.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>微软</b>（MSFT）-笔记本电脑。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Dell</b>(NYSE:DELL)- laptops.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>戴尔</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：戴尔）-笔记本电脑。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Adobe</b>(ADBE) - creative software.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>土坯</b>（ADBE）-创意软件。</li></blockquote></p><p></p><p></li>  <li>And many more.</p><p><blockquote><li>还有更多。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> A comprehensive list of Apple’s competitors would be impossible to come up with, because the company operates in so many different verticals. In addition to all the names above, Apple is arguably in competition with the big semi companies, as it sells phones and laptops with Apple chips. Apple is one of the most comprehensive tech companies around, with a massive lineup of hardware, software and services, putting it in tacit competition with dozens of companies.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的竞争对手的全面名单是不可能的，因为该公司在许多不同的垂直领域开展业务。除了上述所有名称之外，苹果可以说还在与大型半导体公司竞争，因为它销售采用苹果芯片的手机和笔记本电脑。苹果是最全面的科技公司之一，拥有庞大的硬件、软件和服务阵容，使其与数十家公司展开默契竞争。</blockquote></p><p> How is Apple doing in the industries it competes in? According to&nbsp;Counterpoint Research&nbsp;and Statista, Apple’s market shares include:</p><p><blockquote>苹果在其竞争的行业中表现如何？根据Counterpoint Research和Statista的数据，苹果的市场份额包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Smartphones: 47% in the US and 14% globally.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>智能手机：美国占47%，全球占14%。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Laptops: 15% in the US and 7.6% globally.</p><p><blockquote><li>笔记本电脑：美国15%，全球7.6%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Smartwatches: over 50% globally.</p><p><blockquote><li>智能手表：全球超过50%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Tablets: 35% globally.</p><p><blockquote><li>平板电脑：全球35%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> On the whole, Apple is in first or second place in most of its markets. It’s behind Samsung on smartphone sales but it leads in watches and tablets. This is a pretty good market position. And it could grow over time. Some of Apple’s product categories are still fairly new. The company only just recently broke into smart watches and&nbsp;sales in the category are growing at 50%. Apple has taken heat lately for its slowing growth, but certain products within the company’s lineup are growing faster than ever. This provides potential for strong growth well into the future.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，苹果在其大部分市场都处于第一或第二的位置。它在智能手机销量方面落后于三星，但在手表和平板电脑方面领先。这是一个相当不错的市场地位。它可能会随着时间的推移而增长。苹果的一些产品类别仍然相当新。该公司最近才涉足智能手表领域，该类别的销售额正以50%的速度增长。苹果最近因增长放缓而受到批评，但该公司产品线中的某些产品增长速度比以往任何时候都快。这为未来的强劲增长提供了潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The M1 Chip and Apple Services</b></p><p><blockquote><b>M1芯片和苹果服务</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of future growth, it’s worth exploring two of Apple’s most promising categories:</p><p><blockquote>说到未来的增长，值得探索苹果最有前途的两个类别：</blockquote></p><p> <i>The M1 Chip and Apple Services.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>M1芯片和苹果服务。</i></blockquote></p><p> The M1 Chip (really the M1 family of chips now) is a new chip designed by Apple based on ARM architecture. The base configuration boasts:</p><p><blockquote>M1芯片（现在实际上是M1家族芯片）是苹果基于ARM架构设计的新型芯片。基本配置拥有：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>An 8-core CPU.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>一个8核CPU。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>A 7-core GPU.</p><p><blockquote><li>7核GPU。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>8 or 16 gigs of RAM (physically built into the chip).</p><p><blockquote><li>8或16 GB内存（物理内置在芯片中）。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>5nm process.</p><p><blockquote><li>5nm工艺。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>16 billion transistors.</p><p><blockquote><li>160亿个晶体管。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>3.2 GHZ max clock rate.</p><p><blockquote><li>3.2 GHZ最大时钟速率。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Incredible specs. And on top of that, there are two new models–the M1 Pro and M1 Max–that offer improvements on the base model. It would be tedious to list detailed spec sheets for these higher end models, but one eye-popping stat is the M1 Max’s 57 billion transistors. This competes with the CPUs included in extremely high end gaming PCs. And of course, that makes newer Macs themselves viable as gaming rigs, as countless&nbsp;YouTube reviewers have noted. Apple already has a sizable market share in laptops and desktops, but with the M1 chip family, it now has a shot at capturing the gaming segment as well. Until now, that market segment has proven elusive to Apple. So, there is significant potential for accelerating growth in Apple’s computer lineup.</p><p><blockquote>难以置信的规格。除此之外，还有两款新型号——M1 Pro和M1 Max——对基本型号进行了改进。列出这些高端型号的详细规格表会很乏味，但一个令人瞠目结舌的统计数据是M1 Max的570亿个晶体管。这与极高端游戏PC中包含的CPU竞争。当然，正如无数YouTube评论者指出的那样，这使得较新的MAC电脑本身可以作为游戏装备。苹果在笔记本电脑和台式机领域已经拥有相当大的市场份额，但凭借M1芯片系列，它现在也有机会占领游戏领域。到目前为止，事实证明，这一细分市场对苹果来说是难以捉摸的。因此，苹果电脑产品线的加速增长潜力巨大。</blockquote></p><p> Next up is Apple services. This is a broad category that includes streaming music, movies, books and more. This category is always expanding and could potentially drive more growth after hardware growth slows down. In the most recent quarter, service growth actually&nbsp;lagged product growth, at 25% vs 30% for the latter. However, services are promising because they’re a category that could continue to grow even after hardware products reach their total addressable market. Global smartphone sales have been&nbsp;flat-lining after years of strong growth. In this environment, it would be unrealistic to expect Apple’s hardware sales to grow as fast as they did in the past. But by selling more services to existing customers, Apple can keep growing its total revenue even as hardware sales underwhelm.</p><p><blockquote>接下来是苹果服务。这是一个广泛的类别，包括流媒体音乐、电影、书籍等。这一类别一直在扩大，并可能在硬件增长放缓后推动更多增长。在最近一个季度，服务增长实际上落后于产品增长，为25%，而后者为30%。然而，服务是有前途的，因为即使在硬件产品达到其总目标市场之后，它们也可以继续增长。经过多年的强劲增长，全球智能手机销量一直持平。在这种环境下，期望苹果的硬件销售像过去那样快速增长是不现实的。但通过向现有客户销售更多服务，苹果可以在硬件销售不佳的情况下保持总收入增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financials and Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Now we can turn to Apple’s financials.</p><p><blockquote>现在我们可以转向苹果的财务状况。</blockquote></p><p> Apple’s most recent quarter was a&nbsp;miss on both revenue and earnings; however, the results were strong in absolute terms. In the quarter, Apple delivered:</p><p><blockquote>苹果最近一个季度的收入和盈利均未达到预期；然而，从绝对值来看，结果是强劲的。本季度，苹果交付了：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>$83 billion in revenue, up 29%.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>营收830亿美元，增长29%。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>$27.3 billion in operating income, up 60%.</p><p><blockquote><li>营业收入273亿美元，增长60%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>$20.5 billion in net income, up 63%.</p><p><blockquote><li>净利润205亿美元，增长63%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>$1.24 in diluted EPS, up 69%.</p><p><blockquote><li>稀释后每股收益为1.24美元，增长69%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> The company also reported $104 billion in TTM cash from operations in its fourth quarter report. That was up 28% from the year before.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还在第四季度报告中报告了1040亿美元的TTM运营现金。这比去年增长了28%。</blockquote></p><p> These were pretty solid results. Especially for a mature company. Apple is the biggest company in the world by market cap, yet its revenue and earnings are both up by growth stock levels. And this one quarter wasn’t a fluke. According to&nbsp;Seeking Alpha Quant, Apple’s five-year CAGR growth rates in the metrics listed above are:</p><p><blockquote>这些都是相当可靠的结果。尤其是对于一家成熟的公司来说。按市值计算，苹果是世界上最大的公司，但其收入和盈利均以成长型股票的水平增长。这一个季度并非侥幸。根据Seeking Alpha Quant的数据，苹果上述指标的五年复合年增长率为：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Revenue: 11%.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>收入：11%。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Operating income: 12.7%.</p><p><blockquote><li>营业收入：12.7%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Net income: 15.7%.</p><p><blockquote><li>净利润：15.7%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Diluted EPS: 22%.</p><p><blockquote><li>稀释后每股收益：22%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Cash flow: 10.7%.</p><p><blockquote><li>现金流：10.7%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Again very solid for a mature company. It does look like the most recent quarter was better than average, but the long-term metrics are still very good. Which gets to the heart of this article’s thesis:</p><p><blockquote>对于一家成熟的公司来说，这也是非常可靠的。最近一个季度看起来确实好于平均水平，但长期指标仍然非常好。这就抓住了本文论点的核心：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Apple is definitely not a bubble stock. Its valuation is fairly steep, as it trades at 30 times earnings, 7.7 times sales, and 26 times cash flow. But the company still has plenty of growth potential. Compounded annually, its earnings are growing at 22%, and as the most recent quarter showed, it has room for acceleration. If you factor in both growth and value, you get a&nbsp;PEG ratio of just 0.43&nbsp;for the trailing 12-month period. That’s far from a bubble valuation. In fact, it looks downright cheap.</p><p><blockquote>苹果绝对不是泡沫股。其估值相当高，市盈率为30倍，销售额为7.7倍，现金流为26倍。但该公司仍有很大的增长潜力。按年复合计算，其盈利以22%的速度增长，正如最近一个季度所显示的那样，它还有加速的空间。如果同时考虑增长和价值，过去12个月的PEG比率仅为0.43。这远非泡沫估值。事实上，它看起来非常便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks and Challenges</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险与挑战</b></blockquote></p><p> While Apple is definitely an ultra-profitable company with strong growth and a moderate valuation, its stock is not without its risks. As a major hardware company, it is vulnerable to supply chain issues, and other shocks. Some major risks and challenges to the bullish thesis outlined in this article include:</p><p><blockquote>虽然苹果绝对是一家增长强劲、估值适中的超盈利公司，但其股票并非没有风险。作为一家主要的硬件公司，它很容易受到供应链问题和其他冲击的影响。本文概述的看涨论点面临的一些主要风险和挑战包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Supply chain issues.</b>The world is currently going through a chip shortage, as well as shortages of various other hi-tech parts. These problems are affecting Apple. Just recently, the company&nbsp;slashed iPhone production&nbsp;because of supply chain issues. That right before the crucial Holiday season, no less. These kinds of problems are an ever-present threat for a hardware company like Apple, which depends on a ready supply of raw materials to keep sales flowing.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>供应链问题。</b>世界目前正在经历芯片短缺，以及各种其他高科技部件的短缺。这些问题正在影响苹果。就在最近，由于供应链问题，该公司大幅削减了iPhone产量。就在关键的假期之前。对于像苹果这样的硬件公司来说，这类问题是一个始终存在的威胁，该公司依靠现成的原材料供应来保持销售流动。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Scale.</b>Mathematically, the bigger something gets, the larger of an increase is needed to drive percentage gains equal to past ones. If you start selling $1,000 widgets and sell one your first year, you double your sales just by selling $2,000 worth the next year. If, however, ten years later, you’re selling $332 billion worth, you need customers to come up with $664 billion in the eleventh year to achieve the same growth. This is mathematically unlikely. And as it just so happens, Apple’s $83 billion Q4 revenue annualizes to $332 billion. So growth will be harder to achieve going forward.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>比例。</b>从数学上讲，某物变得越大，需要的增幅就越大，才能推动与过去持平的百分比增长。如果你开始销售1000美元的小工具，第一年就卖出了一个，那么第二年只要卖出价值2000美元的小工具，你的销售额就会翻倍。然而，如果十年后，你的销售额为3320亿美元，你需要客户在第十一年拿出6640亿美元来实现同样的增长。这在数学上是不太可能的。碰巧的是，苹果第四季度830亿美元的年收入达到了3320亿美元。因此，未来将更难实现增长。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Disruption.</b>Apple’s business model requires that it stay on the leading edge of tech innovation. If another company comes out with something decisively superior to the iPhone, that could kill Apple’s business overnight. Apple itself&nbsp;did this once, to&nbsp;<b>BlackBerry</b>(BB), makers of the ill-fated BlackBerry Smartphone. The history of the tech industry is littered with companies eating each other's lunch, and while Apple has billions to spend on R&amp;D, you never know where the next threat will come from.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>中断。</b>苹果的商业模式要求它保持在技术创新的前沿。如果另一家公司推出了明显优于iPhone的产品，这可能会在一夜之间扼杀苹果的业务。苹果自己也做过一次，为了<b>黑莓</b>（BB），命运多舛的黑莓智能手机制造商。科技行业的历史上充斥着公司互相吃午餐的情况，尽管苹果在研发上投入了数十亿美元，但你永远不知道下一个威胁会来自哪里。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> The above are some very real risks for investors to keep in mind. The supply chain risk, in particular, is very real, having been cited as a problem in several quarterly reports. With that said, Apple stock has an incredible moat, decent growth, and a not-unreasonable valuation. This is definitely not a stock to short. And while the gains realized by longs will not be as good in the future as they were in the past, they should still be decent.</p><p><blockquote>以上是投资者需要牢记的一些非常真实的风险。尤其是供应链风险是非常真实的，在几份季度报告中都被认为是一个问题。话虽如此，苹果股票拥有令人难以置信的护城河、良好的增长和并非不合理的估值。这绝对不是一只值得做空的股票。虽然多头实现的收益在未来不会像过去那么好，但它们应该仍然不错。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Are there any bubbles in Apple stock?<blockquote>苹果股票有泡沫吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAre there any bubbles in Apple stock?<blockquote>苹果股票有泡沫吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-23 11:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple stock has risen 34% this year, beating the NASDAQ 100 by a wide margin.</li>  <li>This has led some to say that the stock is in a bubble, as its price is rising rapidly.</li>  <li>However, Apple's stock price gains are about in line with revenue growth, and actually slower than the most recent quarter's EPS growth.</li>  <li>In this article, I will develop a bullish thesis on Apple, arguing that it has a wide moat that will power future growth and profitability.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e9d29c6db997dd98e087415e7e2acfe\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1036\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果股价今年已上涨34%，大幅跑赢纳斯达克100指数。</li><li>这导致一些人说该股存在泡沫，因为其价格正在迅速上涨。</li><li>然而，苹果的股价涨幅与收入增长大致一致，实际上慢于最近一个季度的每股收益增长。</li><li>在本文中，我将对苹果提出看涨论点，认为它拥有宽阔的护城河，将推动未来的增长和盈利能力。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>贾斯汀·沙利文/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple Inc.</b>(AAPL) stock has delivered a solid performance in 2021. Up 35% for the year, it has solidly outperformed both the NASDAQ 100 and the S&amp;P 500. The latest in a long streak of winning years for the company, Apple’s 2021 shows that a stock is never too big to beat the market.</p><p><blockquote><b>苹果公司。</b>(AAPL)股票在2021年表现稳健。该指数今年上涨了35%，表现强劲，优于纳斯达克100指数和标普500。苹果的2021年业绩是该公司长期获胜的最新一年，它表明股票永远不会太大而无法击败市场。</blockquote></p><p> With that said, there’s no shortage of people who think Apple’s winning run is due for a correction. In recent weeks, we’ve seen a deluge of articles claiming that AAPL is overvalued, with titles like:</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，仍有不少人认为苹果的胜利应该得到修正。最近几周，我们看到大量文章声称AAPL被高估，标题如下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>“Apple Stock is Now a Bubble.”</i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>“苹果股票现在是泡沫。”</i></li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><i>“Why Apple Stock May Be a Bubble That’s Ready to Burst.”</i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>“为什么苹果股票可能是一个即将破裂的泡沫。”</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><i>“Sell AAPL? Why This Expert Sees Apple Stock Dipping 12%”</i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>“出售AAPL？为什么这位专家认为苹果股价下跌12%”</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Not all of these articles have been unambiguously bearish. A few mention positives along with negatives. But generally speaking, the sentiment that Apple is a bubble, or at least overvalued, is becoming common. If you look at&nbsp;TipRanks’ sentiment chart, it shows decisively negative sentiment toward Apple stock.</p><p><blockquote>并非所有这些文章都明确悲观。一些人提到了积极的一面和消极的一面。但总体而言，认为苹果是泡沫，或者至少被高估的情绪正在变得普遍。如果你看看TipRanks的情绪图表，就会发现对苹果股票的情绪明显负面。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce8357bc3eaf626336dbf12b2ff1f410\" tg-width=\"485\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: TipRanks’ sentiment chart</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TipRanks情绪图</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The bearishness of investor sentiment toward Apple becomes clear when we compare it to the sentiment toward&nbsp;<b>Meta Platforms</b>(FB). Meta, a company that is being sued for antitrust violations and getting attacked in the press daily, has a nearly perfect sentiment score. So there is no special tech curse that guarantees negative sentiment toward individual stocks in the sector. Apple’s sentiment problem is indeed its own problem.</p><p><blockquote>当我们将投资者对苹果的悲观情绪与对<b>元平台</b>（FB）。Meta是一家因违反反垄断法而被起诉并每天受到媒体攻击的公司，其情绪得分几乎完美。因此，没有什么特殊的科技诅咒可以保证对该行业个股的负面情绪。苹果的情绪问题确实是自己的问题。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68bc8cf3f8fc200c2b7a9c85e69cc9f2\" tg-width=\"488\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Which begs the question:</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：</blockquote></p><p> <i>Why?</i></p><p><blockquote><i>为什么？</i></blockquote></p><p> Apple is a wide-moat stock, one of the few tech companies that controls both hardware and software for most of its users. Many companies have attempted to copy Apple’s strategy of maximizing revenue by integrating hardware and apps, but few have succeeded at it. If you want the IOS or Mac OS experience, you need an iPhone or Mac. And billions of people want those experiences enough to pay top dollar for Apple’s products. Few other tech companies have that advantage –&nbsp;<b>Nintendo</b>(OTCPK:NTDOY) being one exception, if you count gaming as tech.</p><p><blockquote>苹果是一只拥有宽护城河的股票，是少数几家同时控制大多数用户硬件和软件的科技公司之一。许多公司都试图复制苹果通过整合硬件和应用程序来实现收入最大化的策略，但很少有人成功。如果你想要IOS或Mac OS体验，你需要一部iPhone或Mac。数十亿人想要这些体验，足以支付高价购买苹果的产品。很少有其他科技公司拥有这样的优势——<b>任天堂</b>(OTCPK：NTDOY)如果您将游戏视为技术，则是一个例外。</blockquote></p><p> This makes Apple arguably a&nbsp;wide-moat stock. You need Apple hardware to run Apple software, and people like Apple software. This gives Apple a “monopoly” on a certain collection of software experiences. It does not have a monopoly on any particular device category, but it’s the only company that can provide the integrated&nbsp;Apple ecosystem.</p><p><blockquote>这使得苹果可以说是一只拥有宽阔护城河的股票。你需要苹果硬件来运行苹果软件，人们喜欢苹果软件。这使得苹果“垄断”了某一套软件体验。它并不垄断任何特定的设备类别，但它是唯一一家能够提供集成苹果生态系统的公司。</blockquote></p><p> This advantage has paid dividends to Apple shareholders – both figuratively and literally. Apple is the world’s biggest company by market cap and the&nbsp;fourth-biggest by revenue. Its revenue growth rate has slowed in recent years, but certain segments (such as watches and services) are growing faster than ever. It appears, then, that Apple still has the potential for significant profitability and growth. Accordingly, I’ll develop a bullish thesis on Apple in this article, arguing that its solid economic moat provides potential for its stock to appreciate in the future.</p><p><blockquote>这一优势为苹果股东带来了红利——无论是象征性的还是字面上的。按市值计算，苹果是全球最大的公司，按收入计算，它是全球第四大公司。近年来，其收入增长率有所放缓，但某些细分市场（如手表和服务）的增长速度比以往任何时候都快。因此，苹果似乎仍然具有显着盈利和增长的潜力。因此，我将在本文中对苹果提出看涨论点，认为其坚实的经济护城河为其股票未来升值提供了潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Competitive Landscape</b></p><p><blockquote><b>竞争格局</b></blockquote></p><p> One of the most important things to understand about Apple is its competitive position. The company operates in such a wide variety of different markets that it’s hard to pin down its business beyond simply “tech.” Technically, the company’s SIC Code (industry classification) is 7372, denoting “prepackaged software.” However, this doesn’t capture the full extent of Apple’s business activities, as it’s also involved in hardware, semiconductors,payments&nbsp;and entertainment.</p><p><blockquote>了解苹果最重要的一点是它的竞争地位。该公司在如此广泛的不同市场开展业务，以至于很难确定其业务不仅仅是“技术”。从技术上讲，该公司的SIC代码（行业分类）是7372，表示“预打包软件”。然而，这并没有涵盖苹果业务活动的全部范围，因为它还涉及硬件、半导体、支付和娱乐。</blockquote></p><p> Some of Apple’s most noteworthy competitors include:</p><p><blockquote>苹果最值得注意的一些竞争对手包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Samsung</b>(OTC:SSNLF) - smartphones.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>三星</b>（场外交易代码：SSNLF）-智能手机。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Huawei</b>- smartphones.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>华为</b>-智能手机。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Alphabet</b>(GOOG) - smartphones, laptops, and software.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>Alphabet</b>(GOOG)-智能手机、笔记本电脑和软件。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Microsoft</b>(MSFT) - laptops.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>微软</b>（MSFT）-笔记本电脑。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Dell</b>(NYSE:DELL)- laptops.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>戴尔</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：戴尔）-笔记本电脑。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Adobe</b>(ADBE) - creative software.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>土坯</b>（ADBE）-创意软件。</li></blockquote></p><p></p><p></li>  <li>And many more.</p><p><blockquote><li>还有更多。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> A comprehensive list of Apple’s competitors would be impossible to come up with, because the company operates in so many different verticals. In addition to all the names above, Apple is arguably in competition with the big semi companies, as it sells phones and laptops with Apple chips. Apple is one of the most comprehensive tech companies around, with a massive lineup of hardware, software and services, putting it in tacit competition with dozens of companies.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的竞争对手的全面名单是不可能的，因为该公司在许多不同的垂直领域开展业务。除了上述所有名称之外，苹果可以说还在与大型半导体公司竞争，因为它销售采用苹果芯片的手机和笔记本电脑。苹果是最全面的科技公司之一，拥有庞大的硬件、软件和服务阵容，使其与数十家公司展开默契竞争。</blockquote></p><p> How is Apple doing in the industries it competes in? According to&nbsp;Counterpoint Research&nbsp;and Statista, Apple’s market shares include:</p><p><blockquote>苹果在其竞争的行业中表现如何？根据Counterpoint Research和Statista的数据，苹果的市场份额包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Smartphones: 47% in the US and 14% globally.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>智能手机：美国占47%，全球占14%。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Laptops: 15% in the US and 7.6% globally.</p><p><blockquote><li>笔记本电脑：美国15%，全球7.6%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Smartwatches: over 50% globally.</p><p><blockquote><li>智能手表：全球超过50%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Tablets: 35% globally.</p><p><blockquote><li>平板电脑：全球35%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> On the whole, Apple is in first or second place in most of its markets. It’s behind Samsung on smartphone sales but it leads in watches and tablets. This is a pretty good market position. And it could grow over time. Some of Apple’s product categories are still fairly new. The company only just recently broke into smart watches and&nbsp;sales in the category are growing at 50%. Apple has taken heat lately for its slowing growth, but certain products within the company’s lineup are growing faster than ever. This provides potential for strong growth well into the future.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，苹果在其大部分市场都处于第一或第二的位置。它在智能手机销量方面落后于三星，但在手表和平板电脑方面领先。这是一个相当不错的市场地位。它可能会随着时间的推移而增长。苹果的一些产品类别仍然相当新。该公司最近才涉足智能手表领域，该类别的销售额正以50%的速度增长。苹果最近因增长放缓而受到批评，但该公司产品线中的某些产品增长速度比以往任何时候都快。这为未来的强劲增长提供了潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The M1 Chip and Apple Services</b></p><p><blockquote><b>M1芯片和苹果服务</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of future growth, it’s worth exploring two of Apple’s most promising categories:</p><p><blockquote>说到未来的增长，值得探索苹果最有前途的两个类别：</blockquote></p><p> <i>The M1 Chip and Apple Services.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>M1芯片和苹果服务。</i></blockquote></p><p> The M1 Chip (really the M1 family of chips now) is a new chip designed by Apple based on ARM architecture. The base configuration boasts:</p><p><blockquote>M1芯片（现在实际上是M1家族芯片）是苹果基于ARM架构设计的新型芯片。基本配置拥有：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>An 8-core CPU.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>一个8核CPU。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>A 7-core GPU.</p><p><blockquote><li>7核GPU。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>8 or 16 gigs of RAM (physically built into the chip).</p><p><blockquote><li>8或16 GB内存（物理内置在芯片中）。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>5nm process.</p><p><blockquote><li>5nm工艺。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>16 billion transistors.</p><p><blockquote><li>160亿个晶体管。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>3.2 GHZ max clock rate.</p><p><blockquote><li>3.2 GHZ最大时钟速率。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Incredible specs. And on top of that, there are two new models–the M1 Pro and M1 Max–that offer improvements on the base model. It would be tedious to list detailed spec sheets for these higher end models, but one eye-popping stat is the M1 Max’s 57 billion transistors. This competes with the CPUs included in extremely high end gaming PCs. And of course, that makes newer Macs themselves viable as gaming rigs, as countless&nbsp;YouTube reviewers have noted. Apple already has a sizable market share in laptops and desktops, but with the M1 chip family, it now has a shot at capturing the gaming segment as well. Until now, that market segment has proven elusive to Apple. So, there is significant potential for accelerating growth in Apple’s computer lineup.</p><p><blockquote>难以置信的规格。除此之外，还有两款新型号——M1 Pro和M1 Max——对基本型号进行了改进。列出这些高端型号的详细规格表会很乏味，但一个令人瞠目结舌的统计数据是M1 Max的570亿个晶体管。这与极高端游戏PC中包含的CPU竞争。当然，正如无数YouTube评论者指出的那样，这使得较新的MAC电脑本身可以作为游戏装备。苹果在笔记本电脑和台式机领域已经拥有相当大的市场份额，但凭借M1芯片系列，它现在也有机会占领游戏领域。到目前为止，事实证明，这一细分市场对苹果来说是难以捉摸的。因此，苹果电脑产品线的加速增长潜力巨大。</blockquote></p><p> Next up is Apple services. This is a broad category that includes streaming music, movies, books and more. This category is always expanding and could potentially drive more growth after hardware growth slows down. In the most recent quarter, service growth actually&nbsp;lagged product growth, at 25% vs 30% for the latter. However, services are promising because they’re a category that could continue to grow even after hardware products reach their total addressable market. Global smartphone sales have been&nbsp;flat-lining after years of strong growth. In this environment, it would be unrealistic to expect Apple’s hardware sales to grow as fast as they did in the past. But by selling more services to existing customers, Apple can keep growing its total revenue even as hardware sales underwhelm.</p><p><blockquote>接下来是苹果服务。这是一个广泛的类别，包括流媒体音乐、电影、书籍等。这一类别一直在扩大，并可能在硬件增长放缓后推动更多增长。在最近一个季度，服务增长实际上落后于产品增长，为25%，而后者为30%。然而，服务是有前途的，因为即使在硬件产品达到其总目标市场之后，它们也可以继续增长。经过多年的强劲增长，全球智能手机销量一直持平。在这种环境下，期望苹果的硬件销售像过去那样快速增长是不现实的。但通过向现有客户销售更多服务，苹果可以在硬件销售不佳的情况下保持总收入增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financials and Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Now we can turn to Apple’s financials.</p><p><blockquote>现在我们可以转向苹果的财务状况。</blockquote></p><p> Apple’s most recent quarter was a&nbsp;miss on both revenue and earnings; however, the results were strong in absolute terms. In the quarter, Apple delivered:</p><p><blockquote>苹果最近一个季度的收入和盈利均未达到预期；然而，从绝对值来看，结果是强劲的。本季度，苹果交付了：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>$83 billion in revenue, up 29%.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>营收830亿美元，增长29%。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>$27.3 billion in operating income, up 60%.</p><p><blockquote><li>营业收入273亿美元，增长60%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>$20.5 billion in net income, up 63%.</p><p><blockquote><li>净利润205亿美元，增长63%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>$1.24 in diluted EPS, up 69%.</p><p><blockquote><li>稀释后每股收益为1.24美元，增长69%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> The company also reported $104 billion in TTM cash from operations in its fourth quarter report. That was up 28% from the year before.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还在第四季度报告中报告了1040亿美元的TTM运营现金。这比去年增长了28%。</blockquote></p><p> These were pretty solid results. Especially for a mature company. Apple is the biggest company in the world by market cap, yet its revenue and earnings are both up by growth stock levels. And this one quarter wasn’t a fluke. According to&nbsp;Seeking Alpha Quant, Apple’s five-year CAGR growth rates in the metrics listed above are:</p><p><blockquote>这些都是相当可靠的结果。尤其是对于一家成熟的公司来说。按市值计算，苹果是世界上最大的公司，但其收入和盈利均以成长型股票的水平增长。这一个季度并非侥幸。根据Seeking Alpha Quant的数据，苹果上述指标的五年复合年增长率为：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Revenue: 11%.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>收入：11%。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Operating income: 12.7%.</p><p><blockquote><li>营业收入：12.7%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Net income: 15.7%.</p><p><blockquote><li>净利润：15.7%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Diluted EPS: 22%.</p><p><blockquote><li>稀释后每股收益：22%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Cash flow: 10.7%.</p><p><blockquote><li>现金流：10.7%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Again very solid for a mature company. It does look like the most recent quarter was better than average, but the long-term metrics are still very good. Which gets to the heart of this article’s thesis:</p><p><blockquote>对于一家成熟的公司来说，这也是非常可靠的。最近一个季度看起来确实好于平均水平，但长期指标仍然非常好。这就抓住了本文论点的核心：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Apple is definitely not a bubble stock. Its valuation is fairly steep, as it trades at 30 times earnings, 7.7 times sales, and 26 times cash flow. But the company still has plenty of growth potential. Compounded annually, its earnings are growing at 22%, and as the most recent quarter showed, it has room for acceleration. If you factor in both growth and value, you get a&nbsp;PEG ratio of just 0.43&nbsp;for the trailing 12-month period. That’s far from a bubble valuation. In fact, it looks downright cheap.</p><p><blockquote>苹果绝对不是泡沫股。其估值相当高，市盈率为30倍，销售额为7.7倍，现金流为26倍。但该公司仍有很大的增长潜力。按年复合计算，其盈利以22%的速度增长，正如最近一个季度所显示的那样，它还有加速的空间。如果同时考虑增长和价值，过去12个月的PEG比率仅为0.43。这远非泡沫估值。事实上，它看起来非常便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks and Challenges</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险与挑战</b></blockquote></p><p> While Apple is definitely an ultra-profitable company with strong growth and a moderate valuation, its stock is not without its risks. As a major hardware company, it is vulnerable to supply chain issues, and other shocks. Some major risks and challenges to the bullish thesis outlined in this article include:</p><p><blockquote>虽然苹果绝对是一家增长强劲、估值适中的超盈利公司，但其股票并非没有风险。作为一家主要的硬件公司，它很容易受到供应链问题和其他冲击的影响。本文概述的看涨论点面临的一些主要风险和挑战包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Supply chain issues.</b>The world is currently going through a chip shortage, as well as shortages of various other hi-tech parts. These problems are affecting Apple. Just recently, the company&nbsp;slashed iPhone production&nbsp;because of supply chain issues. That right before the crucial Holiday season, no less. These kinds of problems are an ever-present threat for a hardware company like Apple, which depends on a ready supply of raw materials to keep sales flowing.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>供应链问题。</b>世界目前正在经历芯片短缺，以及各种其他高科技部件的短缺。这些问题正在影响苹果。就在最近，由于供应链问题，该公司大幅削减了iPhone产量。就在关键的假期之前。对于像苹果这样的硬件公司来说，这类问题是一个始终存在的威胁，该公司依靠现成的原材料供应来保持销售流动。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Scale.</b>Mathematically, the bigger something gets, the larger of an increase is needed to drive percentage gains equal to past ones. If you start selling $1,000 widgets and sell one your first year, you double your sales just by selling $2,000 worth the next year. If, however, ten years later, you’re selling $332 billion worth, you need customers to come up with $664 billion in the eleventh year to achieve the same growth. This is mathematically unlikely. And as it just so happens, Apple’s $83 billion Q4 revenue annualizes to $332 billion. So growth will be harder to achieve going forward.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>比例。</b>从数学上讲，某物变得越大，需要的增幅就越大，才能推动与过去持平的百分比增长。如果你开始销售1000美元的小工具，第一年就卖出了一个，那么第二年只要卖出价值2000美元的小工具，你的销售额就会翻倍。然而，如果十年后，你的销售额为3320亿美元，你需要客户在第十一年拿出6640亿美元来实现同样的增长。这在数学上是不太可能的。碰巧的是，苹果第四季度830亿美元的年收入达到了3320亿美元。因此，未来将更难实现增长。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Disruption.</b>Apple’s business model requires that it stay on the leading edge of tech innovation. If another company comes out with something decisively superior to the iPhone, that could kill Apple’s business overnight. Apple itself&nbsp;did this once, to&nbsp;<b>BlackBerry</b>(BB), makers of the ill-fated BlackBerry Smartphone. The history of the tech industry is littered with companies eating each other's lunch, and while Apple has billions to spend on R&amp;D, you never know where the next threat will come from.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>中断。</b>苹果的商业模式要求它保持在技术创新的前沿。如果另一家公司推出了明显优于iPhone的产品，这可能会在一夜之间扼杀苹果的业务。苹果自己也做过一次，为了<b>黑莓</b>（BB），命运多舛的黑莓智能手机制造商。科技行业的历史上充斥着公司互相吃午餐的情况，尽管苹果在研发上投入了数十亿美元，但你永远不知道下一个威胁会来自哪里。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> The above are some very real risks for investors to keep in mind. The supply chain risk, in particular, is very real, having been cited as a problem in several quarterly reports. With that said, Apple stock has an incredible moat, decent growth, and a not-unreasonable valuation. This is definitely not a stock to short. And while the gains realized by longs will not be as good in the future as they were in the past, they should still be decent.</p><p><blockquote>以上是投资者需要牢记的一些非常真实的风险。尤其是供应链风险是非常真实的，在几份季度报告中都被认为是一个问题。话虽如此，苹果股票拥有令人难以置信的护城河、良好的增长和并非不合理的估值。这绝对不是一只值得做空的股票。虽然多头实现的收益在未来不会像过去那么好，但它们应该仍然不错。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476363-apple-stock-no-bubble\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476363-apple-stock-no-bubble","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1164467804","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple stock has risen 34% this year, beating the NASDAQ 100 by a wide margin.\nThis has led some to say that the stock is in a bubble, as its price is rising rapidly.\nHowever, Apple's stock price gains are about in line with revenue growth, and actually slower than the most recent quarter's EPS growth.\nIn this article, I will develop a bullish thesis on Apple, arguing that it has a wide moat that will power future growth and profitability.\n\nJustin Sullivan/Getty Images News\nApple Inc.(AAPL) stock has delivered a solid performance in 2021. Up 35% for the year, it has solidly outperformed both the NASDAQ 100 and the S&P 500. The latest in a long streak of winning years for the company, Apple’s 2021 shows that a stock is never too big to beat the market.\nWith that said, there’s no shortage of people who think Apple’s winning run is due for a correction. In recent weeks, we’ve seen a deluge of articles claiming that AAPL is overvalued, with titles like:\n\n“Apple Stock is Now a Bubble.”\n“Why Apple Stock May Be a Bubble That’s Ready to Burst.”\n“Sell AAPL? Why This Expert Sees Apple Stock Dipping 12%”\n\nNot all of these articles have been unambiguously bearish. A few mention positives along with negatives. But generally speaking, the sentiment that Apple is a bubble, or at least overvalued, is becoming common. If you look at TipRanks’ sentiment chart, it shows decisively negative sentiment toward Apple stock.\nSource: TipRanks’ sentiment chart\nThe bearishness of investor sentiment toward Apple becomes clear when we compare it to the sentiment toward Meta Platforms(FB). Meta, a company that is being sued for antitrust violations and getting attacked in the press daily, has a nearly perfect sentiment score. So there is no special tech curse that guarantees negative sentiment toward individual stocks in the sector. Apple’s sentiment problem is indeed its own problem.\n\nWhich begs the question:\nWhy?\nApple is a wide-moat stock, one of the few tech companies that controls both hardware and software for most of its users. Many companies have attempted to copy Apple’s strategy of maximizing revenue by integrating hardware and apps, but few have succeeded at it. If you want the IOS or Mac OS experience, you need an iPhone or Mac. And billions of people want those experiences enough to pay top dollar for Apple’s products. Few other tech companies have that advantage – Nintendo(OTCPK:NTDOY) being one exception, if you count gaming as tech.\nThis makes Apple arguably a wide-moat stock. You need Apple hardware to run Apple software, and people like Apple software. This gives Apple a “monopoly” on a certain collection of software experiences. It does not have a monopoly on any particular device category, but it’s the only company that can provide the integrated Apple ecosystem.\nThis advantage has paid dividends to Apple shareholders – both figuratively and literally. Apple is the world’s biggest company by market cap and the fourth-biggest by revenue. Its revenue growth rate has slowed in recent years, but certain segments (such as watches and services) are growing faster than ever. It appears, then, that Apple still has the potential for significant profitability and growth. Accordingly, I’ll develop a bullish thesis on Apple in this article, arguing that its solid economic moat provides potential for its stock to appreciate in the future.\nCompetitive Landscape\nOne of the most important things to understand about Apple is its competitive position. The company operates in such a wide variety of different markets that it’s hard to pin down its business beyond simply “tech.” Technically, the company’s SIC Code (industry classification) is 7372, denoting “prepackaged software.” However, this doesn’t capture the full extent of Apple’s business activities, as it’s also involved in hardware, semiconductors,payments and entertainment.\nSome of Apple’s most noteworthy competitors include:\n\nSamsung(OTC:SSNLF) - smartphones.\nHuawei- smartphones.\nAlphabet(GOOG) - smartphones, laptops, and software.\nMicrosoft(MSFT) - laptops.\nDell(NYSE:DELL)- laptops.\nAdobe(ADBE) - creative software.\nAnd many more.\n\nA comprehensive list of Apple’s competitors would be impossible to come up with, because the company operates in so many different verticals. In addition to all the names above, Apple is arguably in competition with the big semi companies, as it sells phones and laptops with Apple chips. Apple is one of the most comprehensive tech companies around, with a massive lineup of hardware, software and services, putting it in tacit competition with dozens of companies.\nHow is Apple doing in the industries it competes in? According to Counterpoint Research and Statista, Apple’s market shares include:\n\nSmartphones: 47% in the US and 14% globally.\nLaptops: 15% in the US and 7.6% globally.\nSmartwatches: over 50% globally.\nTablets: 35% globally.\n\nOn the whole, Apple is in first or second place in most of its markets. It’s behind Samsung on smartphone sales but it leads in watches and tablets. This is a pretty good market position. And it could grow over time. Some of Apple’s product categories are still fairly new. The company only just recently broke into smart watches and sales in the category are growing at 50%. Apple has taken heat lately for its slowing growth, but certain products within the company’s lineup are growing faster than ever. This provides potential for strong growth well into the future.\nThe M1 Chip and Apple Services\nSpeaking of future growth, it’s worth exploring two of Apple’s most promising categories:\nThe M1 Chip and Apple Services.\nThe M1 Chip (really the M1 family of chips now) is a new chip designed by Apple based on ARM architecture. The base configuration boasts:\n\nAn 8-core CPU.\nA 7-core GPU.\n8 or 16 gigs of RAM (physically built into the chip).\n5nm process.\n16 billion transistors.\n3.2 GHZ max clock rate.\n\nIncredible specs. And on top of that, there are two new models–the M1 Pro and M1 Max–that offer improvements on the base model. It would be tedious to list detailed spec sheets for these higher end models, but one eye-popping stat is the M1 Max’s 57 billion transistors. This competes with the CPUs included in extremely high end gaming PCs. And of course, that makes newer Macs themselves viable as gaming rigs, as countless YouTube reviewers have noted. Apple already has a sizable market share in laptops and desktops, but with the M1 chip family, it now has a shot at capturing the gaming segment as well. Until now, that market segment has proven elusive to Apple. So, there is significant potential for accelerating growth in Apple’s computer lineup.\nNext up is Apple services. This is a broad category that includes streaming music, movies, books and more. This category is always expanding and could potentially drive more growth after hardware growth slows down. In the most recent quarter, service growth actually lagged product growth, at 25% vs 30% for the latter. However, services are promising because they’re a category that could continue to grow even after hardware products reach their total addressable market. Global smartphone sales have been flat-lining after years of strong growth. In this environment, it would be unrealistic to expect Apple’s hardware sales to grow as fast as they did in the past. But by selling more services to existing customers, Apple can keep growing its total revenue even as hardware sales underwhelm.\nFinancials and Valuation\nNow we can turn to Apple’s financials.\nApple’s most recent quarter was a miss on both revenue and earnings; however, the results were strong in absolute terms. In the quarter, Apple delivered:\n\n$83 billion in revenue, up 29%.\n$27.3 billion in operating income, up 60%.\n$20.5 billion in net income, up 63%.\n$1.24 in diluted EPS, up 69%.\n\nThe company also reported $104 billion in TTM cash from operations in its fourth quarter report. That was up 28% from the year before.\nThese were pretty solid results. Especially for a mature company. Apple is the biggest company in the world by market cap, yet its revenue and earnings are both up by growth stock levels. And this one quarter wasn’t a fluke. According to Seeking Alpha Quant, Apple’s five-year CAGR growth rates in the metrics listed above are:\n\nRevenue: 11%.\nOperating income: 12.7%.\nNet income: 15.7%.\nDiluted EPS: 22%.\nCash flow: 10.7%.\n\nAgain very solid for a mature company. It does look like the most recent quarter was better than average, but the long-term metrics are still very good. Which gets to the heart of this article’s thesis:\nApple is definitely not a bubble stock. Its valuation is fairly steep, as it trades at 30 times earnings, 7.7 times sales, and 26 times cash flow. But the company still has plenty of growth potential. Compounded annually, its earnings are growing at 22%, and as the most recent quarter showed, it has room for acceleration. If you factor in both growth and value, you get a PEG ratio of just 0.43 for the trailing 12-month period. That’s far from a bubble valuation. In fact, it looks downright cheap.\nRisks and Challenges\nWhile Apple is definitely an ultra-profitable company with strong growth and a moderate valuation, its stock is not without its risks. As a major hardware company, it is vulnerable to supply chain issues, and other shocks. Some major risks and challenges to the bullish thesis outlined in this article include:\n\nSupply chain issues.The world is currently going through a chip shortage, as well as shortages of various other hi-tech parts. These problems are affecting Apple. Just recently, the company slashed iPhone production because of supply chain issues. That right before the crucial Holiday season, no less. These kinds of problems are an ever-present threat for a hardware company like Apple, which depends on a ready supply of raw materials to keep sales flowing.\nScale.Mathematically, the bigger something gets, the larger of an increase is needed to drive percentage gains equal to past ones. If you start selling $1,000 widgets and sell one your first year, you double your sales just by selling $2,000 worth the next year. If, however, ten years later, you’re selling $332 billion worth, you need customers to come up with $664 billion in the eleventh year to achieve the same growth. This is mathematically unlikely. And as it just so happens, Apple’s $83 billion Q4 revenue annualizes to $332 billion. So growth will be harder to achieve going forward.\nDisruption.Apple’s business model requires that it stay on the leading edge of tech innovation. If another company comes out with something decisively superior to the iPhone, that could kill Apple’s business overnight. Apple itself did this once, to BlackBerry(BB), makers of the ill-fated BlackBerry Smartphone. The history of the tech industry is littered with companies eating each other's lunch, and while Apple has billions to spend on R&D, you never know where the next threat will come from.\n\nThe above are some very real risks for investors to keep in mind. The supply chain risk, in particular, is very real, having been cited as a problem in several quarterly reports. With that said, Apple stock has an incredible moat, decent growth, and a not-unreasonable valuation. This is definitely not a stock to short. And while the gains realized by longs will not be as good in the future as they were in the past, they should still be decent.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4114,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":607086277,"gmtCreate":1639458071915,"gmtModify":1639458119135,"author":{"id":"3581305621743723","authorId":"3581305621743723","name":"Erikku","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/294b2fdf23d2efd60a7c0694ef8e548c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581305621743723","idStr":"3581305621743723"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks&nbsp;","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607086277","repostId":"1120286910","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120286910","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639453388,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1120286910?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-14 11:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"PayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks<blockquote>PayPal最近的价格下跌最终将发生在几乎所有被高估的科技股身上</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120286910","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.\nI wa","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>PayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.</li>  <li>I warned investors back in February of 2021 that PayPal was extremely overvalued and worth selling.</li>  <li>That warning could have been issued for dozens and dozens of overvalued technology stocks that still have over -50% downside from here within the next 3 years.</li>  <li>PayPal remains a great company that I would like to own, so I analyze the stock in order to establish I price at which I'd be willing to buy it.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/847095b0be294275f55f7e8f700d56b4\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1229\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>BsWei/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>PayPal股价较今年高点下跌超过-35%，而且该股仍然不便宜。</li><li>我早在2021年2月就警告投资者，PayPal的估值被严重高估，值得出售。</li><li>这一警告可能是针对数十只被高估的科技股发出的，这些股在未来3年内仍有超过-50%的下跌空间。</li><li>PayPal仍然是一家我想拥有的伟大公司，因此我分析该股票以确定我愿意购买它的价格。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>BsWei/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Back on February 6th, 2021, I made a video where I shared with investors why PayPal (PYPL) stock was overvalued enough to sell. I shared that video on my Seeking Alpha bloghere. Since that time, PayPal has performed poorly both on an absolute basis and relative to the S&amp;P 500 (SPY).</p><p><blockquote>早在2021年2月6日，我就制作了一段视频，与投资者分享了为什么PayPal(PYPL)股票被高估到足以出售。我在我的Seeking Alpha bloghere上分享了该视频。自那时以来，PayPal的绝对表现和相对于标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）的表现都很差。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8252b7218af36cce8b5a591f56abaecd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The stock price is down about -30% since I warned investors and down about -38% off its high price of the year.</p><p><blockquote>自从我向投资者发出警告以来，该股股价已下跌约-30%，较今年的高点下跌约-38%。</blockquote></p><p> The truth is that I could have issued the same warning about many other technology stocks that had become overvalued, but PayPal was one that I actually wanted to buy if the price ever fell to a reasonable level. It was a case where there was absolutely nothing wrong with the company. There was no bad story to tell. The price had simply gotten insanely overvalued. It didn't matter how good the story around PayPal was back in February. Numbers almost always trump narrative over the long-term. And the numbers back then didn't make sense.</p><p><blockquote>事实是，我本可以对许多其他被高估的科技股发出同样的警告，但如果价格跌至合理水平，我实际上想买入PayPal。这是一个公司绝对没有问题的案例。没有什么不好的故事可讲。这个价格被高估了。二月份围绕PayPal的故事有多好并不重要。从长远来看，数字几乎总是胜过叙事。当时的数字没有意义。</blockquote></p><p> This should be an important lesson for medium and long-term investors. If the numbers don't work, it doesn't matter what the story is.</p><p><blockquote>这应该是中长线投资者的重要一课。如果数字不起作用，故事是什么并不重要。</blockquote></p><p> The difficultly for a stock writer like myself is that investors<i>love</i>narratives and stories. It's not our fault. Our human brains are hardwired that way. Since I shared my bearish February PayPal video, out of 62 articles on Seeking Alpha covering PayPal, there hasn't been a single \"Bearish\" article written. The primary reason for that is because PayPal's narrative was so appealing that valuation numbers were either ignored, or the assumptions around the numbers were not realistic.</p><p><blockquote>对于像我这样的股票作家来说，困难的是投资者<i>爱</i>叙事和故事。这不是我们的错。我们人类的大脑天生就是这样。自从我分享了我看跌的2月份PayPal视频以来，Seeking Alpha上报道PayPal的62篇文章中，没有一篇“看跌”文章。主要原因是PayPal的叙述如此吸引人，以至于估值数字要么被忽视，要么围绕这些数字的假设不现实。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, I'm going to share my current PayPal valuation based on earnings and earnings growth projections. I'll also share what I consider to be a fair value range for PayPal stock, and the price I would be looking to buy with a margin of safety. This is the same basic process I used to determine that PayPal stock was overvalued back in February of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>在本文中，我将分享我目前基于盈利和盈利增长预测的PayPal估值。我还将分享我认为PayPal股票的公允价值范围，以及我希望在安全边际的情况下购买的价格。这与我在2021年2月用来确定PayPal股票被高估的基本过程相同。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>全周期盈利分析</b></blockquote></p><p> As part of the analysis, I calculate what I consider to be the two main drivers of future total returns: Market sentiment returns and business returns. I then combine those expected returns together in the form of a 10-year CAGR expectation and use that to value the stock.</p><p><blockquote>作为分析的一部分，我计算了我认为未来总回报的两个主要驱动因素：市场情绪回报和商业回报。然后，我将这些预期回报以10年复合年增长率预期的形式组合在一起，并用它来评估股票。</blockquote></p><p> Before I begin this analysis, I always check the business's long-term earnings patterns in order to ensure that the business is a proper fit for this sort of analysis. If the historical earnings 1) don't have a long enough history 2) are erratic in nature, or 3) are too cyclical, then I either avoid analyzing the stock altogether or I use a different type of analysis that is more appropriate.</p><p><blockquote>在我开始这种分析之前，我总是检查企业的长期盈利模式，以确保企业适合这种分析。如果历史收益1）没有足够长的历史2）本质上不稳定，或者3）周期性太强，那么我要么完全避免分析股票，要么使用更合适的不同类型的分析。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70078307e65a5a1d0e37f9e70b726b77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We can see that since 2015 PayPal's earnings per share have increased every single year. This is a clear secular growth pattern and it makes the stock very attractive as a long-term investment. Since 2015 there haven't been any negative earnings growth years so the stock is likely a good fit for the type of earnings analysis I'm going to perform. One important question to ask, though, is that while we did have a brief recession in 2020, it was a very unusual one. It's possible that PayPal's business could be more economically sensitive during a longer, more drawn-out recession. So, that is a risk. However, when I examined how eBay (EBAY) performed in the 2008/9 recession, its earnings growth was basically flat, and never went negative. If I had to make a guess, I think PayPal's earnings growth rate would probably decline during a \"normal\" recession, but still wouldn't be especially cyclical. For those reasons, I'm going to go ahead with my Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis even though we don't have hard historical data from \"normal\" recession for PayPal.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以看到，自2015年以来，PayPal的每股收益每年都在增长。这是一个明显的长期增长模式，它使该股票作为长期投资非常有吸引力。自2015年以来，没有出现过任何盈利负增长的年份，因此该股票可能非常适合我将要进行的盈利分析类型。不过，要问的一个重要问题是，虽然我们在2020年确实经历了短暂的衰退，但这是一次非常不寻常的衰退。在更长、更持久的经济衰退期间，PayPal的业务可能会对经济更加敏感。所以，这是一个风险。然而，当我考察eBay(EBAY)在2008/9年经济衰退中的表现时，其盈利增长基本持平，从未出现过负增长。如果让我猜的话，我认为PayPal的盈利增长率可能会在“正常”衰退期间下降，但仍然不会特别具有周期性。出于这些原因，尽管我们没有PayPal“正常”衰退的硬历史数据，但我仍将继续进行全周期盈利分析。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market Sentiment Return Expectations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场情绪回归预期</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In order to estimate what sort of returns we might expect over the next 10 years, let's begin by examining what return we could expect 10 years from now if the P/E multiple were to revert to its mean from the previous economic cycle. Since we have had a recent recession (albeit an unusual one) I'm starting this cycle in fiscal year 2015 and running it through 2021's estimates.</p><p><blockquote>为了估计未来10年我们可能预期的回报，让我们首先研究一下，如果市盈率倍数恢复到上一个经济周期的平均值，我们从现在起10年后可以预期的回报。由于我们最近经历了一次衰退（尽管是一次不寻常的衰退），我将在2015财年开始这个周期，并通过2021年的估计运行它。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e36d2c3455962a02d96b8c88c32eadce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> PayPal's average P/E from 2015 to the present has been a healthy 34.11 (the blue bar circled in gold on the FAST Graph). Using 2021's forward earnings estimates of $4.60 (also circled in gold), PayPal has a current P/E of 40.73. If that 40.73 P/E were to revert to the average P/E of 34.11 over the course of the next 10 years and everything else was held the same, PayPal's price would fall and it would produce a 10-Year CAGR of<b>-1.75%</b>. That's the annual return we can expect from sentiment mean reversion if it takes ten years to revert. If it takes less time to revert, the price could fall faster.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal从2015年至今的平均市盈率为34.11（快速图上用金色圈出的蓝色条）。使用2021年4.60美元的预期盈利预测（也用金色圈出），PayPal目前的市盈率为40.73。如果40.73市盈率在未来10年恢复到34.11的平均市盈率，而其他条件保持不变，PayPal的股价将会下跌，10年复合年增长率将为<b>-1.75%</b>如果情绪回归需要十年时间，这就是我们可以从情绪均值回归中预期的年回报率。如果恢复所需的时间更短，价格可能会下跌得更快。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Earnings Expectations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>业务盈利预期</b></blockquote></p><p> We previously examined what would happen if market sentiment reverted to the mean. This is entirely determined by the mood of the market and is quite often disconnected, or only loosely connected, to the performance of the actual business. In this section, we will examine the actual earnings of the business. The goal here is simple: We want to know how much money we would earn (expressed in the form of a CAGR %) over the course of 10 years if we bought the business at today's prices and kept all of the earnings for ourselves.</p><p><blockquote>我们之前研究了如果市场情绪恢复到均值会发生什么。这完全由市场情绪决定，并且通常与实际业务的表现脱节，或者只是松散地联系在一起。在本节中，我们将检查企业的实际收益。这里的目标很简单：我们想知道如果我们以今天的价格收购企业并将所有收益留给自己，我们在10年内会赚多少钱（以CAGR%的形式表示）。</blockquote></p><p> There are two main components of this: the first is the earnings yield and the second is the rate at which the earnings can be expected to grow. Let's start with the earnings yield (which is an inverted P/E ratio, so, the Earnings/Price ratio). The current earnings yield is about +2.46%. The way I like to think about this is, if I bought the company's whole business right now for $100, I would earn $2.46 per year on my investment if earnings remained the same for the next 10 years.</p><p><blockquote>这有两个主要组成部分：第一个是收益收益率，第二个是收益的预期增长率。让我们从收益率（这是一个倒置的市盈率，因此，市盈率）开始。目前的收益率约为+2.46%。我喜欢思考这个问题的方式是，如果我现在以100美元购买公司的整个业务，如果未来10年收益保持不变，我每年的投资将获得2.46美元。</blockquote></p><p> The next step is to estimate the company's earnings growth during this time period. I do that by figuring out at what rate earnings grew during the last cycle and applying that rate to the next 10 years. This involves calculating the EPS growth rate since 2015, taking into account each year's EPS growth or decline, and then backing out any share buybacks that occurred over that time period (because reducing shares will increase the EPS due to fewer shares).</p><p><blockquote>下一步是估计公司在这段时间内的盈利增长。我通过计算上一个周期的收益增长率并将该增长率应用于未来10年来做到这一点。这涉及计算自2015年以来的每股收益增长率，考虑每年的每股收益增长或下降，然后退出该时期发生的任何股票回购（因为减持股票会因股票减少而增加每股收益）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f31b7d8ed5f59c82c2531cc686324d1a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Due to the scale of the graph, the buybacks look much bigger than they actually are, and there isn't much to adjust here. Additionally, since PayPal has grown earnings every year there are no earnings growth declines to adjust for either. This makes estimating PayPal's earnings growth a relatively straightforward affair, and I estimate PayPal's earnings growth at about +23.65%.</p><p><blockquote>由于图表的规模，回购看起来比实际要大得多，这里没有太多调整。此外，由于PayPal的盈利每年都在增长，因此无需调整盈利增长下降。这使得估计PayPal的盈利增长变得相对简单，我估计PayPal的盈利增长约为+23.65%。</blockquote></p><p> Now, this is the point where my conservatism when it comes to asking myself \"What is a reasonable expectation, for valuation purposes, going forward 10 years?\" It is very, very difficult for businesses to grow earnings over 20% per year for a full decade (particularly if they have already been doing that the previous decade). For that reason, I cap all of my long-term forward earnings growth estimates when using them for valuation purposes at 20%. This is simply a way to help keep me from overpaying for a stock when their P/E multiple is likely to contract over time. So, for this valuation exercise, I am limiting my earnings growth assumption to 20%.</p><p><blockquote>现在，当我问自己“出于估值目的，未来10年的合理预期是什么？”对于企业来说，在整整十年的时间里，收入每年增长超过20%是非常非常困难的（特别是如果他们在过去十年里已经这样做了）。因此，在用于估值目的时，我将所有长期预期盈利增长预测限制在20%。当股票的市盈率可能会随着时间的推移而收缩时，这只是一种帮助我避免为股票支付过高价格的方法。因此，对于这次估值工作，我将盈利增长假设限制在20%。</blockquote></p><p> Next, I'll apply that growth rate to current earnings, looking forward 10 years in order to get a final 10-year CAGR estimate. The way I think about this is, if I bought PayPal's whole business for $100, it would pay me back $2.46 plus +20.00% growth the first year, and that amount would grow at +20.00% per year for 10 years after that. I want to know how much money I would have in total at the end of 10 years on my $100 investment, which I calculate to be about $176.50 (including the original $100). When I plug that growth into a CAGR calculator, that translates to a<b>+5.85%</b>10-year CAGR estimate for the expected business earnings returns.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我将将该增长率应用于当前收益，展望10年，以获得最终的10年复合年增长率估计。我的想法是，如果我以100美元收购PayPal的整个业务，它将在第一年偿还我2.46美元，外加+20.00%的增长，并且在那之后的10年里，这个数额将以每年+20.00%的速度增长。我想知道我的100美元投资在10年后总共会有多少钱，我计算出大约是176.50美元（包括最初的100美元）。当我将这种增长插入CAGR计算器时，就会转化为<b>+5.85%</b>预期业务盈利回报的10年复合年增长率估计。</blockquote></p><p> <b>10-Year, Full-Cycle CAGR Estimate</b></p><p><blockquote><b>10年全周期复合年增长率估计</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Potential future returns can come from two main places: market sentiment returns or business earnings returns. If we assume that market sentiment reverts to the mean from the last cycle over the next 10 years for PayPal, it will produce a -1.75% CAGR. If the earnings yield and growth are similar to the last cycle, the company should produce somewhere around a +5.85% 10-year CAGR. If we put the two together, we get an expected 10-year, full-cycle CAGR of<b>+4.10%</b>at today's price.</p><p><blockquote>潜在的未来回报可以来自两个主要地方：市场情绪回报或业务收益回报。如果我们假设PayPal未来10年的市场情绪恢复到上一个周期的平均值，则复合年增长率将为-1.75%。如果盈利收益率和增长与上一个周期相似，该公司的10年复合年增长率应该在+5.85%左右。如果我们将两者放在一起，我们会得到预期的10年全周期复合年增长率为<b>+4.10%</b>以今天的价格。</blockquote></p><p> My Buy/Sell/Hold range for this category of stocks is: above a 12% CAGR is a Buy, below a 4% expected CAGR is a Sell, and in between 4% and 12% is a Hold. This puts PayPal stock just barely into the \"Hold\" category at today's price level.</p><p><blockquote>我对此类股票的买入/卖出/持有范围是：复合年增长率高于12%为买入，预期复合年增长率低于4%为卖出，4%至12%之间为持有。这使得PayPal股票在今天的价格水平上勉强属于“持有”类别。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Additional Considerations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>其他注意事项</b></blockquote></p><p> I consider PayPal one of the highest quality growth stocks in the market right now, which is why I've been monitoring its valuation relatively closely. In this section I'm going to share my fair value range for PayPal along with the price I would be willing to buy the stock with a margin of safety based on earnings, and also the price I would consider buying using a more aggressive and less conservative valuation approach. So, I'm going to look at PayPal's valuation from a variety of different perspectives to give us a clearer view of what might be an appropriate price to pay for the stock.</p><p><blockquote>我认为PayPal是目前市场上质量最高的成长型股票之一，这就是为什么我一直相对密切地关注其估值。在本节中，我将分享我对PayPal的公允价值范围，以及我愿意在基于收益的安全边际下购买该股票的价格，以及我考虑使用更激进和不太保守的估值方法购买的价格。因此，我将从各种不同的角度来看PayPal的估值，让我们更清楚地了解购买该股票的合适价格。</blockquote></p><p> First, I'll start with my buy price and fair value range using the same assumptions and inputs I used in this article. If we use all of those same inputs my current fair value range for PayPal is about $126.50 to $164.00 per share. My current buy price that includes a margin of safety is $112.10. Investors who buy below that price have very good odds of great returns over the medium-term with the stock.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我将使用本文中使用的相同假设和输入从我的购买价格和公允价值范围开始。如果我们使用所有这些相同的输入，我目前对PayPal的公允价值范围约为每股126.50美元至164.00美元。我目前的买入价格（包括安全边际）是112.10美元。低于该价格买入的投资者在中期内很有可能获得丰厚的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Once we get into the new year and 2022, I'll start pulling forward PayPal's 2022 earnings for my estimates. Right now, analysts expect $5.25 per share from earnings in 2022. That will improve PayPal's valuation a lot if the rest of their metrics remain the same, and it would raise their fair value range up to $145.00 to $187.50 dollars per share with a margin of safety buy price at $128.00 per share. This, of course, assumes analysts keep their estimates for 2022 in place and don't lower them over the next couple of months. It also means, based on future earnings, that in a month or two if PayPal keeps trading near its current price, it is already in the top end of a \"fair value\" price range. This might be a further reason for current owners to keep holding.</p><p><blockquote>一旦我们进入新的一年和2022年，我将开始提前预测PayPal 2022年的盈利。目前，分析师预计2022年每股收益为5.25美元。如果PayPal的其他指标保持不变，这将大大提高其估值，并将其公允价值范围提高至每股145.00美元至187.50美元，安全买入价格为每股128.00美元。当然，这是假设分析师维持对2022年的预期不变，并且在未来几个月内不会降低预期。这也意味着，根据未来的收益，如果PayPal在一两个月内保持接近当前价格的交易，它已经处于“公允价值”价格范围的上限。这可能是当前所有者继续持有的另一个原因。</blockquote></p><p> The Full-Cycle Earnings analysis I used in this article is not the only type of analysis I use. For certain rare businesses with fast profit growth dynamics, I recently developed a new analysis to help identify fast-growing businesses that might never become cheap enough to buy based on earnings alone. The methods of this analysis are exclusive to my private service, The Cyclical Investor's Club, but since PayPal's profit growth is very strong, it actually qualifies for this type of analysis, too, and I thought I would at least share the sort of \"buy price\" that analysis produces because it's a little more aggressive than the earnings-based analysis.</p><p><blockquote>我在本文中使用的全周期收益分析并不是我使用的唯一分析类型。对于某些利润快速增长的罕见企业，我最近开发了一种新的分析方法，以帮助识别仅根据收益可能永远不会变得足够便宜的快速增长企业。这种分析的方法是我的私人服务机构周期性投资者俱乐部独有的，但由于PayPal的利润增长非常强劲，它实际上也有资格进行这种类型的分析，我想我至少会分享这种分析产生的“购买价格”，因为它比基于收益的分析更激进一些。</blockquote></p><p> When I examine PayPal using the profit growth analysis, it produces a buy price of $144.90. I find that interesting because if profits keep growing this quarter that price is likely to rise a little bit and put it pretty close to the middle of fair value using next year's earnings using my earnings-based method. This assumes that PayPal's metrics don't deteriorate between now and then, and there would be some technical requirements PayPal would have to meet as well, but I think the odds are good that by February of 2022 I could be a buyer of PayPal stock, approximately one year after I warned investors about its high valuation. It's going to be very interesting to see how it turns out.</p><p><blockquote>当我使用利润增长分析来检查PayPal时，它得出的买入价格为144.90美元。我觉得这很有趣，因为如果本季度利润继续增长，价格可能会上涨一点，并使用我的基于收益的方法，使用明年的收益，使其非常接近公允价值的中间值。这是假设PayPal的指标从现在到那时不会恶化，而且PayPal也必须满足一些技术要求，但我认为到2022年2月，我很有可能成为PayPal股票的买家，大约在我警告投资者其高估值一年后。看看结果会很有趣。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> I think PayPal's 2021 decline is an interesting and useful case study that goes beyond PayPal itself. The sort of decline we've seen in PayPal's stock price this year was entirely predictable and there are many other richly valued technology stocks that will experience a similar decline, likely in 2022 for most of them. For investors who are overweight these types of stocks, now is probably a time to consider diversifying in order to help keep the gains they have experienced the past couple of years. While there will be some overvalued stocks that simply stagnate for several years and go nowhere, and a rare few that manage to keep rising, the vast majority will experience declines like PayPal has experienced.</p><p><blockquote>我认为PayPal 2021年的衰落是一个有趣且有用的案例研究，超越了PayPal本身。我们今年看到的PayPal股价下跌是完全可以预见的，还有许多其他估值丰厚的科技股也将经历类似的下跌，其中大多数可能在2022年。对于跑赢大盘此类股票的投资者来说，现在可能是考虑多元化的时候了，以帮助保持过去几年的收益。虽然会有一些被高估的股票停滞不前几年，毫无进展，也有极少数股票设法继续上涨，但绝大多数股票将经历像PayPal那样的下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>PayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks<blockquote>PayPal最近的价格下跌最终将发生在几乎所有被高估的科技股身上</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks<blockquote>PayPal最近的价格下跌最终将发生在几乎所有被高估的科技股身上</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-14 11:43</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>PayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.</li>  <li>I warned investors back in February of 2021 that PayPal was extremely overvalued and worth selling.</li>  <li>That warning could have been issued for dozens and dozens of overvalued technology stocks that still have over -50% downside from here within the next 3 years.</li>  <li>PayPal remains a great company that I would like to own, so I analyze the stock in order to establish I price at which I'd be willing to buy it.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/847095b0be294275f55f7e8f700d56b4\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1229\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>BsWei/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>PayPal股价较今年高点下跌超过-35%，而且该股仍然不便宜。</li><li>我早在2021年2月就警告投资者，PayPal的估值被严重高估，值得出售。</li><li>这一警告可能是针对数十只被高估的科技股发出的，这些股在未来3年内仍有超过-50%的下跌空间。</li><li>PayPal仍然是一家我想拥有的伟大公司，因此我分析该股票以确定我愿意购买它的价格。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>BsWei/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Back on February 6th, 2021, I made a video where I shared with investors why PayPal (PYPL) stock was overvalued enough to sell. I shared that video on my Seeking Alpha bloghere. Since that time, PayPal has performed poorly both on an absolute basis and relative to the S&amp;P 500 (SPY).</p><p><blockquote>早在2021年2月6日，我就制作了一段视频，与投资者分享了为什么PayPal(PYPL)股票被高估到足以出售。我在我的Seeking Alpha bloghere上分享了该视频。自那时以来，PayPal的绝对表现和相对于标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）的表现都很差。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8252b7218af36cce8b5a591f56abaecd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The stock price is down about -30% since I warned investors and down about -38% off its high price of the year.</p><p><blockquote>自从我向投资者发出警告以来，该股股价已下跌约-30%，较今年的高点下跌约-38%。</blockquote></p><p> The truth is that I could have issued the same warning about many other technology stocks that had become overvalued, but PayPal was one that I actually wanted to buy if the price ever fell to a reasonable level. It was a case where there was absolutely nothing wrong with the company. There was no bad story to tell. The price had simply gotten insanely overvalued. It didn't matter how good the story around PayPal was back in February. Numbers almost always trump narrative over the long-term. And the numbers back then didn't make sense.</p><p><blockquote>事实是，我本可以对许多其他被高估的科技股发出同样的警告，但如果价格跌至合理水平，我实际上想买入PayPal。这是一个公司绝对没有问题的案例。没有什么不好的故事可讲。这个价格被高估了。二月份围绕PayPal的故事有多好并不重要。从长远来看，数字几乎总是胜过叙事。当时的数字没有意义。</blockquote></p><p> This should be an important lesson for medium and long-term investors. If the numbers don't work, it doesn't matter what the story is.</p><p><blockquote>这应该是中长线投资者的重要一课。如果数字不起作用，故事是什么并不重要。</blockquote></p><p> The difficultly for a stock writer like myself is that investors<i>love</i>narratives and stories. It's not our fault. Our human brains are hardwired that way. Since I shared my bearish February PayPal video, out of 62 articles on Seeking Alpha covering PayPal, there hasn't been a single \"Bearish\" article written. The primary reason for that is because PayPal's narrative was so appealing that valuation numbers were either ignored, or the assumptions around the numbers were not realistic.</p><p><blockquote>对于像我这样的股票作家来说，困难的是投资者<i>爱</i>叙事和故事。这不是我们的错。我们人类的大脑天生就是这样。自从我分享了我看跌的2月份PayPal视频以来，Seeking Alpha上报道PayPal的62篇文章中，没有一篇“看跌”文章。主要原因是PayPal的叙述如此吸引人，以至于估值数字要么被忽视，要么围绕这些数字的假设不现实。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, I'm going to share my current PayPal valuation based on earnings and earnings growth projections. I'll also share what I consider to be a fair value range for PayPal stock, and the price I would be looking to buy with a margin of safety. This is the same basic process I used to determine that PayPal stock was overvalued back in February of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>在本文中，我将分享我目前基于盈利和盈利增长预测的PayPal估值。我还将分享我认为PayPal股票的公允价值范围，以及我希望在安全边际的情况下购买的价格。这与我在2021年2月用来确定PayPal股票被高估的基本过程相同。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>全周期盈利分析</b></blockquote></p><p> As part of the analysis, I calculate what I consider to be the two main drivers of future total returns: Market sentiment returns and business returns. I then combine those expected returns together in the form of a 10-year CAGR expectation and use that to value the stock.</p><p><blockquote>作为分析的一部分，我计算了我认为未来总回报的两个主要驱动因素：市场情绪回报和商业回报。然后，我将这些预期回报以10年复合年增长率预期的形式组合在一起，并用它来评估股票。</blockquote></p><p> Before I begin this analysis, I always check the business's long-term earnings patterns in order to ensure that the business is a proper fit for this sort of analysis. If the historical earnings 1) don't have a long enough history 2) are erratic in nature, or 3) are too cyclical, then I either avoid analyzing the stock altogether or I use a different type of analysis that is more appropriate.</p><p><blockquote>在我开始这种分析之前，我总是检查企业的长期盈利模式，以确保企业适合这种分析。如果历史收益1）没有足够长的历史2）本质上不稳定，或者3）周期性太强，那么我要么完全避免分析股票，要么使用更合适的不同类型的分析。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70078307e65a5a1d0e37f9e70b726b77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We can see that since 2015 PayPal's earnings per share have increased every single year. This is a clear secular growth pattern and it makes the stock very attractive as a long-term investment. Since 2015 there haven't been any negative earnings growth years so the stock is likely a good fit for the type of earnings analysis I'm going to perform. One important question to ask, though, is that while we did have a brief recession in 2020, it was a very unusual one. It's possible that PayPal's business could be more economically sensitive during a longer, more drawn-out recession. So, that is a risk. However, when I examined how eBay (EBAY) performed in the 2008/9 recession, its earnings growth was basically flat, and never went negative. If I had to make a guess, I think PayPal's earnings growth rate would probably decline during a \"normal\" recession, but still wouldn't be especially cyclical. For those reasons, I'm going to go ahead with my Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis even though we don't have hard historical data from \"normal\" recession for PayPal.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以看到，自2015年以来，PayPal的每股收益每年都在增长。这是一个明显的长期增长模式，它使该股票作为长期投资非常有吸引力。自2015年以来，没有出现过任何盈利负增长的年份，因此该股票可能非常适合我将要进行的盈利分析类型。不过，要问的一个重要问题是，虽然我们在2020年确实经历了短暂的衰退，但这是一次非常不寻常的衰退。在更长、更持久的经济衰退期间，PayPal的业务可能会对经济更加敏感。所以，这是一个风险。然而，当我考察eBay(EBAY)在2008/9年经济衰退中的表现时，其盈利增长基本持平，从未出现过负增长。如果让我猜的话，我认为PayPal的盈利增长率可能会在“正常”衰退期间下降，但仍然不会特别具有周期性。出于这些原因，尽管我们没有PayPal“正常”衰退的硬历史数据，但我仍将继续进行全周期盈利分析。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market Sentiment Return Expectations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场情绪回归预期</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In order to estimate what sort of returns we might expect over the next 10 years, let's begin by examining what return we could expect 10 years from now if the P/E multiple were to revert to its mean from the previous economic cycle. Since we have had a recent recession (albeit an unusual one) I'm starting this cycle in fiscal year 2015 and running it through 2021's estimates.</p><p><blockquote>为了估计未来10年我们可能预期的回报，让我们首先研究一下，如果市盈率倍数恢复到上一个经济周期的平均值，我们从现在起10年后可以预期的回报。由于我们最近经历了一次衰退（尽管是一次不寻常的衰退），我将在2015财年开始这个周期，并通过2021年的估计运行它。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e36d2c3455962a02d96b8c88c32eadce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> PayPal's average P/E from 2015 to the present has been a healthy 34.11 (the blue bar circled in gold on the FAST Graph). Using 2021's forward earnings estimates of $4.60 (also circled in gold), PayPal has a current P/E of 40.73. If that 40.73 P/E were to revert to the average P/E of 34.11 over the course of the next 10 years and everything else was held the same, PayPal's price would fall and it would produce a 10-Year CAGR of<b>-1.75%</b>. That's the annual return we can expect from sentiment mean reversion if it takes ten years to revert. If it takes less time to revert, the price could fall faster.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal从2015年至今的平均市盈率为34.11（快速图上用金色圈出的蓝色条）。使用2021年4.60美元的预期盈利预测（也用金色圈出），PayPal目前的市盈率为40.73。如果40.73市盈率在未来10年恢复到34.11的平均市盈率，而其他条件保持不变，PayPal的股价将会下跌，10年复合年增长率将为<b>-1.75%</b>如果情绪回归需要十年时间，这就是我们可以从情绪均值回归中预期的年回报率。如果恢复所需的时间更短，价格可能会下跌得更快。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Earnings Expectations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>业务盈利预期</b></blockquote></p><p> We previously examined what would happen if market sentiment reverted to the mean. This is entirely determined by the mood of the market and is quite often disconnected, or only loosely connected, to the performance of the actual business. In this section, we will examine the actual earnings of the business. The goal here is simple: We want to know how much money we would earn (expressed in the form of a CAGR %) over the course of 10 years if we bought the business at today's prices and kept all of the earnings for ourselves.</p><p><blockquote>我们之前研究了如果市场情绪恢复到均值会发生什么。这完全由市场情绪决定，并且通常与实际业务的表现脱节，或者只是松散地联系在一起。在本节中，我们将检查企业的实际收益。这里的目标很简单：我们想知道如果我们以今天的价格收购企业并将所有收益留给自己，我们在10年内会赚多少钱（以CAGR%的形式表示）。</blockquote></p><p> There are two main components of this: the first is the earnings yield and the second is the rate at which the earnings can be expected to grow. Let's start with the earnings yield (which is an inverted P/E ratio, so, the Earnings/Price ratio). The current earnings yield is about +2.46%. The way I like to think about this is, if I bought the company's whole business right now for $100, I would earn $2.46 per year on my investment if earnings remained the same for the next 10 years.</p><p><blockquote>这有两个主要组成部分：第一个是收益收益率，第二个是收益的预期增长率。让我们从收益率（这是一个倒置的市盈率，因此，市盈率）开始。目前的收益率约为+2.46%。我喜欢思考这个问题的方式是，如果我现在以100美元购买公司的整个业务，如果未来10年收益保持不变，我每年的投资将获得2.46美元。</blockquote></p><p> The next step is to estimate the company's earnings growth during this time period. I do that by figuring out at what rate earnings grew during the last cycle and applying that rate to the next 10 years. This involves calculating the EPS growth rate since 2015, taking into account each year's EPS growth or decline, and then backing out any share buybacks that occurred over that time period (because reducing shares will increase the EPS due to fewer shares).</p><p><blockquote>下一步是估计公司在这段时间内的盈利增长。我通过计算上一个周期的收益增长率并将该增长率应用于未来10年来做到这一点。这涉及计算自2015年以来的每股收益增长率，考虑每年的每股收益增长或下降，然后退出该时期发生的任何股票回购（因为减持股票会因股票减少而增加每股收益）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f31b7d8ed5f59c82c2531cc686324d1a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Due to the scale of the graph, the buybacks look much bigger than they actually are, and there isn't much to adjust here. Additionally, since PayPal has grown earnings every year there are no earnings growth declines to adjust for either. This makes estimating PayPal's earnings growth a relatively straightforward affair, and I estimate PayPal's earnings growth at about +23.65%.</p><p><blockquote>由于图表的规模，回购看起来比实际要大得多，这里没有太多调整。此外，由于PayPal的盈利每年都在增长，因此无需调整盈利增长下降。这使得估计PayPal的盈利增长变得相对简单，我估计PayPal的盈利增长约为+23.65%。</blockquote></p><p> Now, this is the point where my conservatism when it comes to asking myself \"What is a reasonable expectation, for valuation purposes, going forward 10 years?\" It is very, very difficult for businesses to grow earnings over 20% per year for a full decade (particularly if they have already been doing that the previous decade). For that reason, I cap all of my long-term forward earnings growth estimates when using them for valuation purposes at 20%. This is simply a way to help keep me from overpaying for a stock when their P/E multiple is likely to contract over time. So, for this valuation exercise, I am limiting my earnings growth assumption to 20%.</p><p><blockquote>现在，当我问自己“出于估值目的，未来10年的合理预期是什么？”对于企业来说，在整整十年的时间里，收入每年增长超过20%是非常非常困难的（特别是如果他们在过去十年里已经这样做了）。因此，在用于估值目的时，我将所有长期预期盈利增长预测限制在20%。当股票的市盈率可能会随着时间的推移而收缩时，这只是一种帮助我避免为股票支付过高价格的方法。因此，对于这次估值工作，我将盈利增长假设限制在20%。</blockquote></p><p> Next, I'll apply that growth rate to current earnings, looking forward 10 years in order to get a final 10-year CAGR estimate. The way I think about this is, if I bought PayPal's whole business for $100, it would pay me back $2.46 plus +20.00% growth the first year, and that amount would grow at +20.00% per year for 10 years after that. I want to know how much money I would have in total at the end of 10 years on my $100 investment, which I calculate to be about $176.50 (including the original $100). When I plug that growth into a CAGR calculator, that translates to a<b>+5.85%</b>10-year CAGR estimate for the expected business earnings returns.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我将将该增长率应用于当前收益，展望10年，以获得最终的10年复合年增长率估计。我的想法是，如果我以100美元收购PayPal的整个业务，它将在第一年偿还我2.46美元，外加+20.00%的增长，并且在那之后的10年里，这个数额将以每年+20.00%的速度增长。我想知道我的100美元投资在10年后总共会有多少钱，我计算出大约是176.50美元（包括最初的100美元）。当我将这种增长插入CAGR计算器时，就会转化为<b>+5.85%</b>预期业务盈利回报的10年复合年增长率估计。</blockquote></p><p> <b>10-Year, Full-Cycle CAGR Estimate</b></p><p><blockquote><b>10年全周期复合年增长率估计</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Potential future returns can come from two main places: market sentiment returns or business earnings returns. If we assume that market sentiment reverts to the mean from the last cycle over the next 10 years for PayPal, it will produce a -1.75% CAGR. If the earnings yield and growth are similar to the last cycle, the company should produce somewhere around a +5.85% 10-year CAGR. If we put the two together, we get an expected 10-year, full-cycle CAGR of<b>+4.10%</b>at today's price.</p><p><blockquote>潜在的未来回报可以来自两个主要地方：市场情绪回报或业务收益回报。如果我们假设PayPal未来10年的市场情绪恢复到上一个周期的平均值，则复合年增长率将为-1.75%。如果盈利收益率和增长与上一个周期相似，该公司的10年复合年增长率应该在+5.85%左右。如果我们将两者放在一起，我们会得到预期的10年全周期复合年增长率为<b>+4.10%</b>以今天的价格。</blockquote></p><p> My Buy/Sell/Hold range for this category of stocks is: above a 12% CAGR is a Buy, below a 4% expected CAGR is a Sell, and in between 4% and 12% is a Hold. This puts PayPal stock just barely into the \"Hold\" category at today's price level.</p><p><blockquote>我对此类股票的买入/卖出/持有范围是：复合年增长率高于12%为买入，预期复合年增长率低于4%为卖出，4%至12%之间为持有。这使得PayPal股票在今天的价格水平上勉强属于“持有”类别。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Additional Considerations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>其他注意事项</b></blockquote></p><p> I consider PayPal one of the highest quality growth stocks in the market right now, which is why I've been monitoring its valuation relatively closely. In this section I'm going to share my fair value range for PayPal along with the price I would be willing to buy the stock with a margin of safety based on earnings, and also the price I would consider buying using a more aggressive and less conservative valuation approach. So, I'm going to look at PayPal's valuation from a variety of different perspectives to give us a clearer view of what might be an appropriate price to pay for the stock.</p><p><blockquote>我认为PayPal是目前市场上质量最高的成长型股票之一，这就是为什么我一直相对密切地关注其估值。在本节中，我将分享我对PayPal的公允价值范围，以及我愿意在基于收益的安全边际下购买该股票的价格，以及我考虑使用更激进和不太保守的估值方法购买的价格。因此，我将从各种不同的角度来看PayPal的估值，让我们更清楚地了解购买该股票的合适价格。</blockquote></p><p> First, I'll start with my buy price and fair value range using the same assumptions and inputs I used in this article. If we use all of those same inputs my current fair value range for PayPal is about $126.50 to $164.00 per share. My current buy price that includes a margin of safety is $112.10. Investors who buy below that price have very good odds of great returns over the medium-term with the stock.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我将使用本文中使用的相同假设和输入从我的购买价格和公允价值范围开始。如果我们使用所有这些相同的输入，我目前对PayPal的公允价值范围约为每股126.50美元至164.00美元。我目前的买入价格（包括安全边际）是112.10美元。低于该价格买入的投资者在中期内很有可能获得丰厚的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Once we get into the new year and 2022, I'll start pulling forward PayPal's 2022 earnings for my estimates. Right now, analysts expect $5.25 per share from earnings in 2022. That will improve PayPal's valuation a lot if the rest of their metrics remain the same, and it would raise their fair value range up to $145.00 to $187.50 dollars per share with a margin of safety buy price at $128.00 per share. This, of course, assumes analysts keep their estimates for 2022 in place and don't lower them over the next couple of months. It also means, based on future earnings, that in a month or two if PayPal keeps trading near its current price, it is already in the top end of a \"fair value\" price range. This might be a further reason for current owners to keep holding.</p><p><blockquote>一旦我们进入新的一年和2022年，我将开始提前预测PayPal 2022年的盈利。目前，分析师预计2022年每股收益为5.25美元。如果PayPal的其他指标保持不变，这将大大提高其估值，并将其公允价值范围提高至每股145.00美元至187.50美元，安全买入价格为每股128.00美元。当然，这是假设分析师维持对2022年的预期不变，并且在未来几个月内不会降低预期。这也意味着，根据未来的收益，如果PayPal在一两个月内保持接近当前价格的交易，它已经处于“公允价值”价格范围的上限。这可能是当前所有者继续持有的另一个原因。</blockquote></p><p> The Full-Cycle Earnings analysis I used in this article is not the only type of analysis I use. For certain rare businesses with fast profit growth dynamics, I recently developed a new analysis to help identify fast-growing businesses that might never become cheap enough to buy based on earnings alone. The methods of this analysis are exclusive to my private service, The Cyclical Investor's Club, but since PayPal's profit growth is very strong, it actually qualifies for this type of analysis, too, and I thought I would at least share the sort of \"buy price\" that analysis produces because it's a little more aggressive than the earnings-based analysis.</p><p><blockquote>我在本文中使用的全周期收益分析并不是我使用的唯一分析类型。对于某些利润快速增长的罕见企业，我最近开发了一种新的分析方法，以帮助识别仅根据收益可能永远不会变得足够便宜的快速增长企业。这种分析的方法是我的私人服务机构周期性投资者俱乐部独有的，但由于PayPal的利润增长非常强劲，它实际上也有资格进行这种类型的分析，我想我至少会分享这种分析产生的“购买价格”，因为它比基于收益的分析更激进一些。</blockquote></p><p> When I examine PayPal using the profit growth analysis, it produces a buy price of $144.90. I find that interesting because if profits keep growing this quarter that price is likely to rise a little bit and put it pretty close to the middle of fair value using next year's earnings using my earnings-based method. This assumes that PayPal's metrics don't deteriorate between now and then, and there would be some technical requirements PayPal would have to meet as well, but I think the odds are good that by February of 2022 I could be a buyer of PayPal stock, approximately one year after I warned investors about its high valuation. It's going to be very interesting to see how it turns out.</p><p><blockquote>当我使用利润增长分析来检查PayPal时，它得出的买入价格为144.90美元。我觉得这很有趣，因为如果本季度利润继续增长，价格可能会上涨一点，并使用我的基于收益的方法，使用明年的收益，使其非常接近公允价值的中间值。这是假设PayPal的指标从现在到那时不会恶化，而且PayPal也必须满足一些技术要求，但我认为到2022年2月，我很有可能成为PayPal股票的买家，大约在我警告投资者其高估值一年后。看看结果会很有趣。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> I think PayPal's 2021 decline is an interesting and useful case study that goes beyond PayPal itself. The sort of decline we've seen in PayPal's stock price this year was entirely predictable and there are many other richly valued technology stocks that will experience a similar decline, likely in 2022 for most of them. For investors who are overweight these types of stocks, now is probably a time to consider diversifying in order to help keep the gains they have experienced the past couple of years. While there will be some overvalued stocks that simply stagnate for several years and go nowhere, and a rare few that manage to keep rising, the vast majority will experience declines like PayPal has experienced.</p><p><blockquote>我认为PayPal 2021年的衰落是一个有趣且有用的案例研究，超越了PayPal本身。我们今年看到的PayPal股价下跌是完全可以预见的，还有许多其他估值丰厚的科技股也将经历类似的下跌，其中大多数可能在2022年。对于跑赢大盘此类股票的投资者来说，现在可能是考虑多元化的时候了，以帮助保持过去几年的收益。虽然会有一些被高估的股票停滞不前几年，毫无进展，也有极少数股票设法继续上涨，但绝大多数股票将经历像PayPal那样的下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474960-paypal-share-price-decline-overvalued-technology-stocks\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PYPL":"PayPal"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474960-paypal-share-price-decline-overvalued-technology-stocks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120286910","content_text":"Summary\n\nPayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.\nI warned investors back in February of 2021 that PayPal was extremely overvalued and worth selling.\nThat warning could have been issued for dozens and dozens of overvalued technology stocks that still have over -50% downside from here within the next 3 years.\nPayPal remains a great company that I would like to own, so I analyze the stock in order to establish I price at which I'd be willing to buy it.\n\nBsWei/iStock via Getty Images\nIntroduction\nBack on February 6th, 2021, I made a video where I shared with investors why PayPal (PYPL) stock was overvalued enough to sell. I shared that video on my Seeking Alpha bloghere. Since that time, PayPal has performed poorly both on an absolute basis and relative to the S&P 500 (SPY).\nData by YCharts\nThe stock price is down about -30% since I warned investors and down about -38% off its high price of the year.\nThe truth is that I could have issued the same warning about many other technology stocks that had become overvalued, but PayPal was one that I actually wanted to buy if the price ever fell to a reasonable level. It was a case where there was absolutely nothing wrong with the company. There was no bad story to tell. The price had simply gotten insanely overvalued. It didn't matter how good the story around PayPal was back in February. Numbers almost always trump narrative over the long-term. And the numbers back then didn't make sense.\nThis should be an important lesson for medium and long-term investors. If the numbers don't work, it doesn't matter what the story is.\nThe difficultly for a stock writer like myself is that investorslovenarratives and stories. It's not our fault. Our human brains are hardwired that way. Since I shared my bearish February PayPal video, out of 62 articles on Seeking Alpha covering PayPal, there hasn't been a single \"Bearish\" article written. The primary reason for that is because PayPal's narrative was so appealing that valuation numbers were either ignored, or the assumptions around the numbers were not realistic.\nIn this article, I'm going to share my current PayPal valuation based on earnings and earnings growth projections. I'll also share what I consider to be a fair value range for PayPal stock, and the price I would be looking to buy with a margin of safety. This is the same basic process I used to determine that PayPal stock was overvalued back in February of 2021.\nFull-Cycle Earnings Analysis\nAs part of the analysis, I calculate what I consider to be the two main drivers of future total returns: Market sentiment returns and business returns. I then combine those expected returns together in the form of a 10-year CAGR expectation and use that to value the stock.\nBefore I begin this analysis, I always check the business's long-term earnings patterns in order to ensure that the business is a proper fit for this sort of analysis. If the historical earnings 1) don't have a long enough history 2) are erratic in nature, or 3) are too cyclical, then I either avoid analyzing the stock altogether or I use a different type of analysis that is more appropriate.\n\nWe can see that since 2015 PayPal's earnings per share have increased every single year. This is a clear secular growth pattern and it makes the stock very attractive as a long-term investment. Since 2015 there haven't been any negative earnings growth years so the stock is likely a good fit for the type of earnings analysis I'm going to perform. One important question to ask, though, is that while we did have a brief recession in 2020, it was a very unusual one. It's possible that PayPal's business could be more economically sensitive during a longer, more drawn-out recession. So, that is a risk. However, when I examined how eBay (EBAY) performed in the 2008/9 recession, its earnings growth was basically flat, and never went negative. If I had to make a guess, I think PayPal's earnings growth rate would probably decline during a \"normal\" recession, but still wouldn't be especially cyclical. For those reasons, I'm going to go ahead with my Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis even though we don't have hard historical data from \"normal\" recession for PayPal.\nMarket Sentiment Return Expectations\nIn order to estimate what sort of returns we might expect over the next 10 years, let's begin by examining what return we could expect 10 years from now if the P/E multiple were to revert to its mean from the previous economic cycle. Since we have had a recent recession (albeit an unusual one) I'm starting this cycle in fiscal year 2015 and running it through 2021's estimates.\n\nPayPal's average P/E from 2015 to the present has been a healthy 34.11 (the blue bar circled in gold on the FAST Graph). Using 2021's forward earnings estimates of $4.60 (also circled in gold), PayPal has a current P/E of 40.73. If that 40.73 P/E were to revert to the average P/E of 34.11 over the course of the next 10 years and everything else was held the same, PayPal's price would fall and it would produce a 10-Year CAGR of-1.75%. That's the annual return we can expect from sentiment mean reversion if it takes ten years to revert. If it takes less time to revert, the price could fall faster.\nBusiness Earnings Expectations\nWe previously examined what would happen if market sentiment reverted to the mean. This is entirely determined by the mood of the market and is quite often disconnected, or only loosely connected, to the performance of the actual business. In this section, we will examine the actual earnings of the business. The goal here is simple: We want to know how much money we would earn (expressed in the form of a CAGR %) over the course of 10 years if we bought the business at today's prices and kept all of the earnings for ourselves.\nThere are two main components of this: the first is the earnings yield and the second is the rate at which the earnings can be expected to grow. Let's start with the earnings yield (which is an inverted P/E ratio, so, the Earnings/Price ratio). The current earnings yield is about +2.46%. The way I like to think about this is, if I bought the company's whole business right now for $100, I would earn $2.46 per year on my investment if earnings remained the same for the next 10 years.\nThe next step is to estimate the company's earnings growth during this time period. I do that by figuring out at what rate earnings grew during the last cycle and applying that rate to the next 10 years. This involves calculating the EPS growth rate since 2015, taking into account each year's EPS growth or decline, and then backing out any share buybacks that occurred over that time period (because reducing shares will increase the EPS due to fewer shares).\nData by YCharts\nDue to the scale of the graph, the buybacks look much bigger than they actually are, and there isn't much to adjust here. Additionally, since PayPal has grown earnings every year there are no earnings growth declines to adjust for either. This makes estimating PayPal's earnings growth a relatively straightforward affair, and I estimate PayPal's earnings growth at about +23.65%.\nNow, this is the point where my conservatism when it comes to asking myself \"What is a reasonable expectation, for valuation purposes, going forward 10 years?\" It is very, very difficult for businesses to grow earnings over 20% per year for a full decade (particularly if they have already been doing that the previous decade). For that reason, I cap all of my long-term forward earnings growth estimates when using them for valuation purposes at 20%. This is simply a way to help keep me from overpaying for a stock when their P/E multiple is likely to contract over time. So, for this valuation exercise, I am limiting my earnings growth assumption to 20%.\nNext, I'll apply that growth rate to current earnings, looking forward 10 years in order to get a final 10-year CAGR estimate. The way I think about this is, if I bought PayPal's whole business for $100, it would pay me back $2.46 plus +20.00% growth the first year, and that amount would grow at +20.00% per year for 10 years after that. I want to know how much money I would have in total at the end of 10 years on my $100 investment, which I calculate to be about $176.50 (including the original $100). When I plug that growth into a CAGR calculator, that translates to a+5.85%10-year CAGR estimate for the expected business earnings returns.\n10-Year, Full-Cycle CAGR Estimate\nPotential future returns can come from two main places: market sentiment returns or business earnings returns. If we assume that market sentiment reverts to the mean from the last cycle over the next 10 years for PayPal, it will produce a -1.75% CAGR. If the earnings yield and growth are similar to the last cycle, the company should produce somewhere around a +5.85% 10-year CAGR. If we put the two together, we get an expected 10-year, full-cycle CAGR of+4.10%at today's price.\nMy Buy/Sell/Hold range for this category of stocks is: above a 12% CAGR is a Buy, below a 4% expected CAGR is a Sell, and in between 4% and 12% is a Hold. This puts PayPal stock just barely into the \"Hold\" category at today's price level.\nAdditional Considerations\nI consider PayPal one of the highest quality growth stocks in the market right now, which is why I've been monitoring its valuation relatively closely. In this section I'm going to share my fair value range for PayPal along with the price I would be willing to buy the stock with a margin of safety based on earnings, and also the price I would consider buying using a more aggressive and less conservative valuation approach. So, I'm going to look at PayPal's valuation from a variety of different perspectives to give us a clearer view of what might be an appropriate price to pay for the stock.\nFirst, I'll start with my buy price and fair value range using the same assumptions and inputs I used in this article. If we use all of those same inputs my current fair value range for PayPal is about $126.50 to $164.00 per share. My current buy price that includes a margin of safety is $112.10. Investors who buy below that price have very good odds of great returns over the medium-term with the stock.\nOnce we get into the new year and 2022, I'll start pulling forward PayPal's 2022 earnings for my estimates. Right now, analysts expect $5.25 per share from earnings in 2022. That will improve PayPal's valuation a lot if the rest of their metrics remain the same, and it would raise their fair value range up to $145.00 to $187.50 dollars per share with a margin of safety buy price at $128.00 per share. This, of course, assumes analysts keep their estimates for 2022 in place and don't lower them over the next couple of months. It also means, based on future earnings, that in a month or two if PayPal keeps trading near its current price, it is already in the top end of a \"fair value\" price range. This might be a further reason for current owners to keep holding.\nThe Full-Cycle Earnings analysis I used in this article is not the only type of analysis I use. For certain rare businesses with fast profit growth dynamics, I recently developed a new analysis to help identify fast-growing businesses that might never become cheap enough to buy based on earnings alone. The methods of this analysis are exclusive to my private service, The Cyclical Investor's Club, but since PayPal's profit growth is very strong, it actually qualifies for this type of analysis, too, and I thought I would at least share the sort of \"buy price\" that analysis produces because it's a little more aggressive than the earnings-based analysis.\nWhen I examine PayPal using the profit growth analysis, it produces a buy price of $144.90. I find that interesting because if profits keep growing this quarter that price is likely to rise a little bit and put it pretty close to the middle of fair value using next year's earnings using my earnings-based method. This assumes that PayPal's metrics don't deteriorate between now and then, and there would be some technical requirements PayPal would have to meet as well, but I think the odds are good that by February of 2022 I could be a buyer of PayPal stock, approximately one year after I warned investors about its high valuation. It's going to be very interesting to see how it turns out.\nConclusion\nI think PayPal's 2021 decline is an interesting and useful case study that goes beyond PayPal itself. The sort of decline we've seen in PayPal's stock price this year was entirely predictable and there are many other richly valued technology stocks that will experience a similar decline, likely in 2022 for most of them. For investors who are overweight these types of stocks, now is probably a time to consider diversifying in order to help keep the gains they have experienced the past couple of years. While there will be some overvalued stocks that simply stagnate for several years and go nowhere, and a rare few that manage to keep rising, the vast majority will experience declines like PayPal has experienced.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PYPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2947,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":608065585,"gmtCreate":1638583052748,"gmtModify":1638583052867,"author":{"id":"3581305621743723","authorId":"3581305621743723","name":"Erikku","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/294b2fdf23d2efd60a7c0694ef8e548c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581305621743723","idStr":"3581305621743723"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Thanks","listText":"Thanks","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/608065585","repostId":"2188853578","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3131,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":877151021,"gmtCreate":1637901938353,"gmtModify":1637902028792,"author":{"id":"3581305621743723","authorId":"3581305621743723","name":"Erikku","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/294b2fdf23d2efd60a7c0694ef8e548c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581305621743723","idStr":"3581305621743723"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Thanks","listText":"Thanks","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/877151021","repostId":"1174337163","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1174337163","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1637897193,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1174337163?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-26 11:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Qualcomm Stock: After A Strong Rally, It Is Now A 'Hold'<blockquote>高通股票：强劲反弹后，目前“持有”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174337163","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nQualcomm is well-positioned to benefit from secular growth trends of 5G, IoT, and industria","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Qualcomm is well-positioned to benefit from secular growth trends of 5G, IoT, and industrial and auto connectivity.</li>  <li>Its recent operating performance has been quite good and momentum should remain strong in the next few quarters, even though growth is expected to moderate in the medium term.</li>  <li>After a strong stock rally, the upside is now more limited and investors should buy more during potential pullbacks.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7aa6af8989c0e13371421d6fed2fac8e\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>G0d4ather/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>高通处于有利地位，可以从5G、物联网以及工业和汽车连接的长期增长趋势中受益。</li><li>其最近的经营业绩相当不错，未来几个季度的势头应该会保持强劲，尽管预计中期增长将放缓。</li><li>在股市强劲反弹之后，上涨空间现在更加有限，投资者应该在潜在回调期间买入更多股票。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>G0d4ather/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>QUALCOMM</b>(QCOM) has interesting growth prospects over the coming years supported from 5G, IoT and industrial and auto connectivity, but its share price performance has been quite strong over the past couple of months and Qualcomm is now a ‘hold’.</p><p><blockquote><b>QUALCOMM</b>在5G、物联网以及工业和汽车连接的支持下，(QCOM)在未来几年拥有有趣的增长前景，但其股价在过去几个月中表现相当强劲，高通现在被“持有”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Background</b></p><p><blockquote><b>背景</b></blockquote></p><p> About two months ago, I have recommended Qualcomm as an interesting play in the 5G and Internet of Things (IoT) secular growth theme, even though there are some medium-term risks, such as competition from&nbsp;<b>MediaTek</b>(OTCPK:MDTKF) in the mobile segment and the possibility of losing&nbsp;<b>Apple’s</b>(AAPL) modem business.</p><p><blockquote>大约两个月前，我推荐高通作为5G和物联网（IoT）长期增长主题中的一个有趣的公司，尽管存在一些中期风险，例如来自<b>联发科</b>(OTCPK：MDTKF)在移动领域以及失去的可能性<b>苹果的</b>(AAPL)调制解调器业务。</blockquote></p><p> Since my article, Qualcomm’s share price has been on fire, up by more than 39% in about two months, supported by strong earnings and an upbeat investor day in the past week.</p><p><blockquote>自从我发表这篇文章以来，高通的股价一直很火，在强劲的盈利和过去一周乐观的投资者日的支撑下，在大约两个月内上涨了39%以上。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b777c551db65315946aa3d0e67786e9\" tg-width=\"258\" tg-height=\"343\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> After a strong run, I think it’s time to see if Qualcomm still offers value to investors if its shares are now expensive. In this article, I review its most recent earnings and investor day, plus I check if its valuation is still attractive or not, considering Qualcomm’s medium-term earnings expectations.</p><p><blockquote>在经历了强劲的上涨之后，我认为是时候看看如果高通的股价现在很贵，它是否仍然为投资者提供价值了。在本文中，我回顾了其最近的收益和投资者日，并考虑到高通的中期收益预期，检查了其估值是否仍然有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recent Earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>近期收益</b></blockquote></p><p> Qualcomm has reported positive results regarding the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2021 (FY 2021 - for the year ended on September 26, 2021), at the beginning of this month. The company reported revenues 5% higher than expected related to Q4, while its bottom-line beat estimates by close to 13%.</p><p><blockquote>本月初，高通报告了第四季度和2021财年（2021财年-截至2021年9月26日的年度）的积极业绩。该公司报告第四季度收入比预期高出5%，而净利润则超出预期近13%。</blockquote></p><p> For the full fiscal year, the company was able to beat targets set at its investor day in 2019 for revenue growth and margin expansion, boding well for growth ahead.</p><p><blockquote>在整个财年，该公司能够超额完成2019年投资者日设定的收入增长和利润率扩张目标，预示着未来的增长。</blockquote></p><p> In FY 2021, Qualcomm’s revenues amounted to $33.56 billion (up by 43% YoY), while its operating income was close to $10.3 billion (+80% YoY). Its net income increased by 74% YoY to more than $9 billion, reaching a net profit margin of 26.9% (vs. 22.1% in FY 2020).</p><p><blockquote>2021财年，高通营收达335.6亿美元（同比增长43%），营业收入接近103亿美元（同比增长80%）。其净利润同比增长74%，超过90亿美元，净利润率达到26.9%（2020财年为22.1%）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3ba047cfae2944b81902cd46d4028cc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Qualcomm.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：高通。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Qualcomm’s growth engine was the QCT segment (technologies), with revenue up by 64% YoY, while the licensing segment (QTL) reported 26% YoY revenue growth. In the QTL segment, Qualcomm’s growth was broad based, with radio filters and IoT being particularly strong.</p><p><blockquote>高通的增长引擎是QCT部门（技术），收入同比增长64%，而许可部门（QTL）收入同比增长26%。在QTL领域，高通的增长基础广泛，其中无线电滤波器和物联网尤为强劲。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aab453c09529203bf11d1d892cf4bb51\" tg-width=\"783\" tg-height=\"182\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Qualcomm.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：高通。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Despite the company’s diversification strategy, Qualcomm is still heavily exposed to the mobile market (handsets) which represented some 62% of its QTL revenues. However, this weight is expected to gradually decrease over the next few years, as other segments such as IoT should have higher growth rates over the medium to long term, given that handsets have benefitted cyclically from the rapid shift to 5G phones over the past year.</p><p><blockquote>尽管公司采取了多元化战略，高通仍然大量涉足移动市场（手机），该市场约占其QTL收入的62%。然而，鉴于手机在过去一年中周期性地受益于向5G手机的快速转变，预计这一权重将在未来几年逐渐下降，因为物联网等其他细分市场在中长期内应该会有更高的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> I see these results as quite good and above my own expectations, with the company being able to report annual revenues in excess of $10 billion for RF, auto and IoT together, a great milestone for Qualcomm and more than doubled compared to FY 2019.</p><p><blockquote>我认为这些结果非常好，超出了我自己的预期，该公司能够报告射频、汽车和物联网的年收入合计超过100亿美元，这对高通来说是一个伟大的里程碑，与2019财年相比增长了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> This clearly shows that Qualcomm’s diversification strategy is progressing well and execution has been positive, which increases confidence on future growth targets. Beyond that, the current chip shortage is also impacting Qualcomm’s business, like for everyone else in the industry, making its recent growth even more impressive.</p><p><blockquote>这清楚地表明，高通的多元化战略进展良好，执行力一直积极，这增加了对未来增长目标的信心。除此之外，当前的芯片短缺也影响了高通的业务，就像业内其他公司一样，使其最近的增长更加令人印象深刻。</blockquote></p><p> Regarding its shareholder remuneration policy, during the last fiscal year, Qualcomm has made close to $3.4 billion in stock repurchases and distributed dividends of $3 billion. Thus, its total capital return to shareholders amounted to $6.4 billion, which represented more than 70% of its bottom-line. However, its dividend yield is only about 1.5%, thus I see Qualcomm mainly as a ‘growth’ play, while income is not high enough to be a reason to buy Qualcomm’s shares.</p><p><blockquote>关于股东薪酬政策，在上一财年，高通进行了近34亿美元的股票回购，并分配了30亿美元的股息。因此，其股东资本回报总额达64亿美元，占其利润的70%以上。然而，其股息收益率仅为1.5%左右，因此我认为高通主要是一家“成长型”公司，而收入还不足以成为购买高通股票的理由。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Qualcomm’s outlook for the next quarter is also positive, with the company expecting more than $10 billion in revenues and diluted EPS in the range $2.53-2.73. Even though Qualcomm’s business has some seasonality, Q1 is usually a stronger quarter, this outlook implies annual revenues close to $40 billion, or up by 19% compared to the previous FY.</p><p><blockquote>高通对下一季度的前景也很乐观，该公司预计营收将超过100亿美元，摊薄后每股收益在2.53-2.73美元之间。尽管高通的业务有一定的季节性，但第一季度通常是一个更强劲的季度，这一前景意味着年收入接近400亿美元，比上一财年增长19%。</blockquote></p><p> This is in-line with current street expectations, given that the current consensus is for FY 2022 revenues of $39.5 billion, showing that Qualcomm’s recent growth is not temporary.</p><p><blockquote>这符合当前华尔街的预期，因为目前的共识是2022财年的收入为395亿美元，这表明高通最近的增长不是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, as I’ve highlighted as a potential risk in my previous analysis, there were additional rumors recently that<b>Apple</b>(AAPL) will use its own 5G modem chip in 2023, instead of using Qualcomm’s chips. It is difficult to quantify how much revenue will Qualcomm lose from this, but certainly will be material and is a potential headwind for revenue and earnings growth in the medium term that investors should be aware of.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，正如我在之前的分析中强调的潜在风险，最近有更多传言称<b>苹果</b>（AAPL）将在2023年使用自己的5G调制解调器芯片，而不是使用高通的芯片。很难量化高通将因此损失多少收入，但肯定会很大，并且是投资者应该意识到的中期收入和盈利增长的潜在阻力。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, the company has recently shown in its investor day that its business is well exposed to some secular growth trends, such as IoT or car and industrial connectivity powered by 5G. This bodes well for its growth prospects over the next few years, and also to smooth the impact of losing some business from Apple.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，该公司最近在投资者日表明，其业务很容易受到一些长期增长趋势的影响，例如物联网或5G驱动的汽车和工业连接。这对其未来几年的增长前景来说是个好兆头，也可以抵消失去苹果部分业务的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investor Day</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者日</b></blockquote></p><p> As I’ve discussed previously on Qualcomm, the company is well-positioned to benefit from secular growth trends of 5G and IoT, considering that it has adapted its product portfolio quite well in recent years for the expected higher demand for these wireless technologies over the next few years, beyond the mobile industry.</p><p><blockquote>正如我之前在高通上讨论的那样，考虑到该公司近年来已经很好地调整了其产品组合，以满足未来几年对这些无线技术的预期更高需求，该公司处于有利地位，可以从5G和物联网的长期增长趋势中受益。</blockquote></p><p> Its growth strategy has been to diversify its product offering so that it can offer solutions and products for more industries and different type of customers, namely in the automotive or the industrial sectors, increasing Qualcomm’s total addressable market and higher long-term growth prospects than relying too much on the mobile industry.</p><p><blockquote>其增长战略一直是使其产品供应多样化，以便能够为更多行业和不同类型的客户（即汽车或工业领域）提供解决方案和产品，增加高通的总目标市场和比依赖更高的长期增长前景过于依赖移动行业。</blockquote></p><p> The company has several technologies for mobile and connectivity that have great growth prospects due to the ongoing digital transformation, which is not expected to slow down in the future. Indeed, in its recent investor day, Qualcomm said that its total addressable market is expected to expand significantly over the next decade, from about $100 billion currently to some $700 billion by 2030. This is justified by the rising number of devices that are expected to be connected to the internet, generating a vast amount of data, being a strong tailwind for the company’s growth ahead.</p><p><blockquote>由于正在进行的数字化转型，该公司拥有多项移动和连接技术，这些技术具有巨大的增长前景，预计未来不会放缓。事实上，在最近的投资者日，高通表示，其潜在市场总额预计将在未来十年大幅扩大，从目前的约1000亿美元增加到2030年的约7000亿美元。这是因为预计连接到互联网的设备数量不断增加，产生大量数据，成为公司未来增长的强劲推动力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b9b8a9143bcaf8706b35feb39aac5ca\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"226\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Qualcomm.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：高通。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Qualcomm also discussed again its technologies spanning several end-markets beyond handsets, with IoT, automotive or virtual reality devices being, in my opinion, segments that are still relatively small for the company and have great growth prospects to become a sizable part of Qualcomm’s business in the next few years. For instance, Qualcomm targets annual revenues from IoT of around $9 billion by FY 2024, compared to $5 billion last year, while in Automotive it expects to grow from annual revenues of $1 billion last year to around $3.5 billion in five years.</p><p><blockquote>高通还再次讨论了其跨越手机以外的多个终端市场的技术，在我看来，物联网、汽车或虚拟现实设备对该公司来说仍然相对较小，但具有巨大的增长前景，将成为高通业务的重要组成部分。未来几年的业务。例如，高通的目标是到2024财年物联网年收入约为90亿美元，而去年为50亿美元，而在汽车领域，预计五年内年收入将从去年的10亿美元增长到约35亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebe04cb81f8fa2aba439f6f5309780c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"218\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Qualcomm.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：高通。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the mobile segment, Qualcomm also sees good long-term growth prospects due to 5G, with 5G handsets expected to gradually increase the weight in total shipments to about 85% by fiscal year 2024 and double from the total shipments delivered in the last year.</p><p><blockquote>在移动领域，高通也看到了5G带来的良好长期增长前景，预计到2024财年，5G手机在总出货量中的比重将逐渐增加至85%左右，比去年的总出货量翻一番。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/552a1a716059d719fc6e64b861f09a8d\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Qualcomm.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：高通。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Regarding its capital structure and shareholder remuneration policy, Qualcomm intends to maintain its policy of distributing a large part of its free cash flow to shareholders, both through a growing dividend and opportunistic share buybacks. As the company’s financial leverage is strong, measured by its net debt-to-EBITDA ratio below 0.5x at the end of FY 2021, it doesn’t need to retain much cash so I expect Qualcomm to distribute close to 100% of its free cash flow to shareholders over the next few years.</p><p><blockquote>关于其资本结构和股东薪酬政策，高通打算维持将大部分自由现金流分配给股东的政策，包括增加股息和机会主义股票回购。由于该公司的财务杠杆很强，以2021财年末净债务与EBITDA比率低于0.5倍来衡量，因此它不需要保留太多现金，因此我预计高通将分配近100%的自由现金流未来几年流向股东。</blockquote></p><p> However, this could change if the company pursues acquisitions, especially if it performs a large acquisition financed mainly by debt. That would increase the company’s financial leverage and, most likely, its strategy would then change towards reducing leverage in subsequent years until it reaches again a strong balance sheet as it has today.</p><p><blockquote>然而，如果该公司进行收购，特别是如果它进行主要通过债务融资的大型收购，这种情况可能会发生变化。这将增加该公司的财务杠杆，而且最有可能的是，其战略将在随后几年转向降低杠杆，直到再次达到像今天这样强劲的资产负债表。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Estimates &amp; Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估计和估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Regarding medium-term&nbsp;estimates, Qualcomm’s revenues are expected to grow at about 7.3% per year, over the next four years, slowing down significantly compared to FY 2021. I think these are conservative estimates and there is upside potential for upward revisions over the coming months if operating momentum remains strong.</p><p><blockquote>关于中期预测，未来四年高通的收入预计将以每年约7.3%的速度增长，与2021财年相比大幅放缓。我认为这些都是保守的估计，如果运营势头保持强劲，未来几个月有向上修正的潜力。</blockquote></p><p> For the fiscal year 2025, revenues are expected to be about $44 billion, which seems too much low considering that for FY 2022 revenues are expected to be around $40 billion. I’m more bullish than current consensus and see revenues of around $50 billion by FY 2025, expecting annual revenue growth of around 7-8% per year between FY 2023 and 2025, which I think is still quite conservative.</p><p><blockquote>2025财年的收入预计约为440亿美元，考虑到2022财年的收入预计约为400亿美元，这似乎太低了。我比目前的共识更乐观，预计到2025财年的收入将达到500亿美元左右，预计2023财年至2025财年的年收入增长约为7-8%，我认为这仍然相当保守。</blockquote></p><p> Its bottom-line is expected to increase to more than $14 billion in FY 2025 in my estimates, slightly above consensus because I’m expecting higher revenues, which implies an EPS of around $12 by FY 2025.</p><p><blockquote>根据我的估计，2025财年其净利润预计将增至140亿美元以上，略高于共识，因为我预计收入会更高，这意味着到2025财年每股收益约为12美元。</blockquote></p><p> Regarding valuation, my approach is to look into the next few years of revenues and earnings rather than just focus on this year or the next, to see if the stock has upside potential over a time frame of two to four years. Therefore, I use FY 2025 estimates to see if Qualcomm’s stock has upside potential over the medium term or not.</p><p><blockquote>关于估值，我的方法是关注未来几年的收入和盈利，而不仅仅是关注今年或明年，看看该股在两到四年内是否有上涨潜力。因此，我使用2025财年的预测来了解高通的股票在中期内是否有上涨潜力。</blockquote></p><p> Based on Qualcomm’s EPS estimate of $12 by FY 2025 and its historical valuation multiple over the past couple of years regarding its blended forward earnings (next 12 months) of 17.3x, my price target for Qualcomm by September 2024 is $207 per share.</p><p><blockquote>根据高通到2025财年的每股收益预期为12美元，以及过去几年混合预期收益（未来12个月）17.3倍的历史估值倍数，我对高通到2024年9月的目标价为每股207美元。</blockquote></p><p> This means that Qualcomm’s upside potential, based on these assumptions, is about 15% over the next three years, which is not impressive and show that a good part of its growth in the medium term is already reflected in its share price.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着，基于这些假设，高通未来三年的上涨潜力约为15%，这并不令人印象深刻，并表明其中期增长的很大一部分已经反映在其股价中。</blockquote></p><p> Note that over the past two years Qualcomm’s forward earnings multiple has been somewhat volatile, trading between 13-22x forward earnings. When I wrote my previous article on Qualcomm, its shares were trading at the bottom of this range and the stock was clearly a buy, while now is trading close to its historical value. This means that there is more upside potential over the medium term, as Qualcomm is clearly well-positioned to benefit from 5G, IoT, and industrial and automotive connectivity, thus a re-rating to higher multiples is possible in the next couple of years.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，过去两年高通的预期市盈率有些波动，预期市盈率在13-22倍之间。当我写上一篇关于高通的文章时，其股价处于该区间的底部，显然值得买入，而现在的交易价格接近其历史价值。这意味着中期内有更大的上涨潜力，因为高通显然处于有利地位，可以从5G、物联网以及工业和汽车连接中受益，因此未来几年有可能重新评级至更高的倍数。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb82ba4ac66c3ed8128484453fc4730c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"204\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Bloomberg.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：彭博。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Bottom Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> Qualcomm’s operating momentum has improved markedly in recent quarters and growth prospects are good in the coming years, as the company’s product diversification strategy is making good progress and is expected to support growth in coming years.</p><p><blockquote>高通近几个季度的经营势头明显改善，未来几年的增长前景良好，因为该公司的产品多元化战略正在取得良好进展，预计将支持未来几年的增长。</blockquote></p><p> However, its stock has rapidly incorporated improved fundamentals with the company’s recent earnings and investor day, and now upside potential is more limited than it was a couple of months ago. Investors who are exposed to Qualcomm should ‘hold’ and buy more during potential pullbacks in the future.</p><p><blockquote>然而，其股票已迅速将基本面的改善与公司最近的盈利和投资者日结合起来，现在的上涨潜力比几个月前更加有限。投资高通的投资者应该“持有”并在未来潜在回调期间买入更多股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Qualcomm Stock: After A Strong Rally, It Is Now A 'Hold'<blockquote>高通股票：强劲反弹后，目前“持有”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nQualcomm Stock: After A Strong Rally, It Is Now A 'Hold'<blockquote>高通股票：强劲反弹后，目前“持有”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-26 11:26</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Qualcomm is well-positioned to benefit from secular growth trends of 5G, IoT, and industrial and auto connectivity.</li>  <li>Its recent operating performance has been quite good and momentum should remain strong in the next few quarters, even though growth is expected to moderate in the medium term.</li>  <li>After a strong stock rally, the upside is now more limited and investors should buy more during potential pullbacks.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7aa6af8989c0e13371421d6fed2fac8e\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>G0d4ather/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>高通处于有利地位，可以从5G、物联网以及工业和汽车连接的长期增长趋势中受益。</li><li>其最近的经营业绩相当不错，未来几个季度的势头应该会保持强劲，尽管预计中期增长将放缓。</li><li>在股市强劲反弹之后，上涨空间现在更加有限，投资者应该在潜在回调期间买入更多股票。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>G0d4ather/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>QUALCOMM</b>(QCOM) has interesting growth prospects over the coming years supported from 5G, IoT and industrial and auto connectivity, but its share price performance has been quite strong over the past couple of months and Qualcomm is now a ‘hold’.</p><p><blockquote><b>QUALCOMM</b>在5G、物联网以及工业和汽车连接的支持下，(QCOM)在未来几年拥有有趣的增长前景，但其股价在过去几个月中表现相当强劲，高通现在被“持有”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Background</b></p><p><blockquote><b>背景</b></blockquote></p><p> About two months ago, I have recommended Qualcomm as an interesting play in the 5G and Internet of Things (IoT) secular growth theme, even though there are some medium-term risks, such as competition from&nbsp;<b>MediaTek</b>(OTCPK:MDTKF) in the mobile segment and the possibility of losing&nbsp;<b>Apple’s</b>(AAPL) modem business.</p><p><blockquote>大约两个月前，我推荐高通作为5G和物联网（IoT）长期增长主题中的一个有趣的公司，尽管存在一些中期风险，例如来自<b>联发科</b>(OTCPK：MDTKF)在移动领域以及失去的可能性<b>苹果的</b>(AAPL)调制解调器业务。</blockquote></p><p> Since my article, Qualcomm’s share price has been on fire, up by more than 39% in about two months, supported by strong earnings and an upbeat investor day in the past week.</p><p><blockquote>自从我发表这篇文章以来，高通的股价一直很火，在强劲的盈利和过去一周乐观的投资者日的支撑下，在大约两个月内上涨了39%以上。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b777c551db65315946aa3d0e67786e9\" tg-width=\"258\" tg-height=\"343\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> After a strong run, I think it’s time to see if Qualcomm still offers value to investors if its shares are now expensive. In this article, I review its most recent earnings and investor day, plus I check if its valuation is still attractive or not, considering Qualcomm’s medium-term earnings expectations.</p><p><blockquote>在经历了强劲的上涨之后，我认为是时候看看如果高通的股价现在很贵，它是否仍然为投资者提供价值了。在本文中，我回顾了其最近的收益和投资者日，并考虑到高通的中期收益预期，检查了其估值是否仍然有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recent Earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>近期收益</b></blockquote></p><p> Qualcomm has reported positive results regarding the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2021 (FY 2021 - for the year ended on September 26, 2021), at the beginning of this month. The company reported revenues 5% higher than expected related to Q4, while its bottom-line beat estimates by close to 13%.</p><p><blockquote>本月初，高通报告了第四季度和2021财年（2021财年-截至2021年9月26日的年度）的积极业绩。该公司报告第四季度收入比预期高出5%，而净利润则超出预期近13%。</blockquote></p><p> For the full fiscal year, the company was able to beat targets set at its investor day in 2019 for revenue growth and margin expansion, boding well for growth ahead.</p><p><blockquote>在整个财年，该公司能够超额完成2019年投资者日设定的收入增长和利润率扩张目标，预示着未来的增长。</blockquote></p><p> In FY 2021, Qualcomm’s revenues amounted to $33.56 billion (up by 43% YoY), while its operating income was close to $10.3 billion (+80% YoY). Its net income increased by 74% YoY to more than $9 billion, reaching a net profit margin of 26.9% (vs. 22.1% in FY 2020).</p><p><blockquote>2021财年，高通营收达335.6亿美元（同比增长43%），营业收入接近103亿美元（同比增长80%）。其净利润同比增长74%，超过90亿美元，净利润率达到26.9%（2020财年为22.1%）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3ba047cfae2944b81902cd46d4028cc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Qualcomm.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：高通。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Qualcomm’s growth engine was the QCT segment (technologies), with revenue up by 64% YoY, while the licensing segment (QTL) reported 26% YoY revenue growth. In the QTL segment, Qualcomm’s growth was broad based, with radio filters and IoT being particularly strong.</p><p><blockquote>高通的增长引擎是QCT部门（技术），收入同比增长64%，而许可部门（QTL）收入同比增长26%。在QTL领域，高通的增长基础广泛，其中无线电滤波器和物联网尤为强劲。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aab453c09529203bf11d1d892cf4bb51\" tg-width=\"783\" tg-height=\"182\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Qualcomm.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：高通。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Despite the company’s diversification strategy, Qualcomm is still heavily exposed to the mobile market (handsets) which represented some 62% of its QTL revenues. However, this weight is expected to gradually decrease over the next few years, as other segments such as IoT should have higher growth rates over the medium to long term, given that handsets have benefitted cyclically from the rapid shift to 5G phones over the past year.</p><p><blockquote>尽管公司采取了多元化战略，高通仍然大量涉足移动市场（手机），该市场约占其QTL收入的62%。然而，鉴于手机在过去一年中周期性地受益于向5G手机的快速转变，预计这一权重将在未来几年逐渐下降，因为物联网等其他细分市场在中长期内应该会有更高的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> I see these results as quite good and above my own expectations, with the company being able to report annual revenues in excess of $10 billion for RF, auto and IoT together, a great milestone for Qualcomm and more than doubled compared to FY 2019.</p><p><blockquote>我认为这些结果非常好，超出了我自己的预期，该公司能够报告射频、汽车和物联网的年收入合计超过100亿美元，这对高通来说是一个伟大的里程碑，与2019财年相比增长了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> This clearly shows that Qualcomm’s diversification strategy is progressing well and execution has been positive, which increases confidence on future growth targets. Beyond that, the current chip shortage is also impacting Qualcomm’s business, like for everyone else in the industry, making its recent growth even more impressive.</p><p><blockquote>这清楚地表明，高通的多元化战略进展良好，执行力一直积极，这增加了对未来增长目标的信心。除此之外，当前的芯片短缺也影响了高通的业务，就像业内其他公司一样，使其最近的增长更加令人印象深刻。</blockquote></p><p> Regarding its shareholder remuneration policy, during the last fiscal year, Qualcomm has made close to $3.4 billion in stock repurchases and distributed dividends of $3 billion. Thus, its total capital return to shareholders amounted to $6.4 billion, which represented more than 70% of its bottom-line. However, its dividend yield is only about 1.5%, thus I see Qualcomm mainly as a ‘growth’ play, while income is not high enough to be a reason to buy Qualcomm’s shares.</p><p><blockquote>关于股东薪酬政策，在上一财年，高通进行了近34亿美元的股票回购，并分配了30亿美元的股息。因此，其股东资本回报总额达64亿美元，占其利润的70%以上。然而，其股息收益率仅为1.5%左右，因此我认为高通主要是一家“成长型”公司，而收入还不足以成为购买高通股票的理由。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Qualcomm’s outlook for the next quarter is also positive, with the company expecting more than $10 billion in revenues and diluted EPS in the range $2.53-2.73. Even though Qualcomm’s business has some seasonality, Q1 is usually a stronger quarter, this outlook implies annual revenues close to $40 billion, or up by 19% compared to the previous FY.</p><p><blockquote>高通对下一季度的前景也很乐观，该公司预计营收将超过100亿美元，摊薄后每股收益在2.53-2.73美元之间。尽管高通的业务有一定的季节性，但第一季度通常是一个更强劲的季度，这一前景意味着年收入接近400亿美元，比上一财年增长19%。</blockquote></p><p> This is in-line with current street expectations, given that the current consensus is for FY 2022 revenues of $39.5 billion, showing that Qualcomm’s recent growth is not temporary.</p><p><blockquote>这符合当前华尔街的预期，因为目前的共识是2022财年的收入为395亿美元，这表明高通最近的增长不是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, as I’ve highlighted as a potential risk in my previous analysis, there were additional rumors recently that<b>Apple</b>(AAPL) will use its own 5G modem chip in 2023, instead of using Qualcomm’s chips. It is difficult to quantify how much revenue will Qualcomm lose from this, but certainly will be material and is a potential headwind for revenue and earnings growth in the medium term that investors should be aware of.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，正如我在之前的分析中强调的潜在风险，最近有更多传言称<b>苹果</b>（AAPL）将在2023年使用自己的5G调制解调器芯片，而不是使用高通的芯片。很难量化高通将因此损失多少收入，但肯定会很大，并且是投资者应该意识到的中期收入和盈利增长的潜在阻力。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, the company has recently shown in its investor day that its business is well exposed to some secular growth trends, such as IoT or car and industrial connectivity powered by 5G. This bodes well for its growth prospects over the next few years, and also to smooth the impact of losing some business from Apple.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，该公司最近在投资者日表明，其业务很容易受到一些长期增长趋势的影响，例如物联网或5G驱动的汽车和工业连接。这对其未来几年的增长前景来说是个好兆头，也可以抵消失去苹果部分业务的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investor Day</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者日</b></blockquote></p><p> As I’ve discussed previously on Qualcomm, the company is well-positioned to benefit from secular growth trends of 5G and IoT, considering that it has adapted its product portfolio quite well in recent years for the expected higher demand for these wireless technologies over the next few years, beyond the mobile industry.</p><p><blockquote>正如我之前在高通上讨论的那样，考虑到该公司近年来已经很好地调整了其产品组合，以满足未来几年对这些无线技术的预期更高需求，该公司处于有利地位，可以从5G和物联网的长期增长趋势中受益。</blockquote></p><p> Its growth strategy has been to diversify its product offering so that it can offer solutions and products for more industries and different type of customers, namely in the automotive or the industrial sectors, increasing Qualcomm’s total addressable market and higher long-term growth prospects than relying too much on the mobile industry.</p><p><blockquote>其增长战略一直是使其产品供应多样化，以便能够为更多行业和不同类型的客户（即汽车或工业领域）提供解决方案和产品，增加高通的总目标市场和比依赖更高的长期增长前景过于依赖移动行业。</blockquote></p><p> The company has several technologies for mobile and connectivity that have great growth prospects due to the ongoing digital transformation, which is not expected to slow down in the future. Indeed, in its recent investor day, Qualcomm said that its total addressable market is expected to expand significantly over the next decade, from about $100 billion currently to some $700 billion by 2030. This is justified by the rising number of devices that are expected to be connected to the internet, generating a vast amount of data, being a strong tailwind for the company’s growth ahead.</p><p><blockquote>由于正在进行的数字化转型，该公司拥有多项移动和连接技术，这些技术具有巨大的增长前景，预计未来不会放缓。事实上，在最近的投资者日，高通表示，其潜在市场总额预计将在未来十年大幅扩大，从目前的约1000亿美元增加到2030年的约7000亿美元。这是因为预计连接到互联网的设备数量不断增加，产生大量数据，成为公司未来增长的强劲推动力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b9b8a9143bcaf8706b35feb39aac5ca\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"226\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Qualcomm.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：高通。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Qualcomm also discussed again its technologies spanning several end-markets beyond handsets, with IoT, automotive or virtual reality devices being, in my opinion, segments that are still relatively small for the company and have great growth prospects to become a sizable part of Qualcomm’s business in the next few years. For instance, Qualcomm targets annual revenues from IoT of around $9 billion by FY 2024, compared to $5 billion last year, while in Automotive it expects to grow from annual revenues of $1 billion last year to around $3.5 billion in five years.</p><p><blockquote>高通还再次讨论了其跨越手机以外的多个终端市场的技术，在我看来，物联网、汽车或虚拟现实设备对该公司来说仍然相对较小，但具有巨大的增长前景，将成为高通业务的重要组成部分。未来几年的业务。例如，高通的目标是到2024财年物联网年收入约为90亿美元，而去年为50亿美元，而在汽车领域，预计五年内年收入将从去年的10亿美元增长到约35亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebe04cb81f8fa2aba439f6f5309780c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"218\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Qualcomm.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：高通。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the mobile segment, Qualcomm also sees good long-term growth prospects due to 5G, with 5G handsets expected to gradually increase the weight in total shipments to about 85% by fiscal year 2024 and double from the total shipments delivered in the last year.</p><p><blockquote>在移动领域，高通也看到了5G带来的良好长期增长前景，预计到2024财年，5G手机在总出货量中的比重将逐渐增加至85%左右，比去年的总出货量翻一番。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/552a1a716059d719fc6e64b861f09a8d\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Qualcomm.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：高通。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Regarding its capital structure and shareholder remuneration policy, Qualcomm intends to maintain its policy of distributing a large part of its free cash flow to shareholders, both through a growing dividend and opportunistic share buybacks. As the company’s financial leverage is strong, measured by its net debt-to-EBITDA ratio below 0.5x at the end of FY 2021, it doesn’t need to retain much cash so I expect Qualcomm to distribute close to 100% of its free cash flow to shareholders over the next few years.</p><p><blockquote>关于其资本结构和股东薪酬政策，高通打算维持将大部分自由现金流分配给股东的政策，包括增加股息和机会主义股票回购。由于该公司的财务杠杆很强，以2021财年末净债务与EBITDA比率低于0.5倍来衡量，因此它不需要保留太多现金，因此我预计高通将分配近100%的自由现金流未来几年流向股东。</blockquote></p><p> However, this could change if the company pursues acquisitions, especially if it performs a large acquisition financed mainly by debt. That would increase the company’s financial leverage and, most likely, its strategy would then change towards reducing leverage in subsequent years until it reaches again a strong balance sheet as it has today.</p><p><blockquote>然而，如果该公司进行收购，特别是如果它进行主要通过债务融资的大型收购，这种情况可能会发生变化。这将增加该公司的财务杠杆，而且最有可能的是，其战略将在随后几年转向降低杠杆，直到再次达到像今天这样强劲的资产负债表。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Estimates &amp; Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估计和估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Regarding medium-term&nbsp;estimates, Qualcomm’s revenues are expected to grow at about 7.3% per year, over the next four years, slowing down significantly compared to FY 2021. I think these are conservative estimates and there is upside potential for upward revisions over the coming months if operating momentum remains strong.</p><p><blockquote>关于中期预测，未来四年高通的收入预计将以每年约7.3%的速度增长，与2021财年相比大幅放缓。我认为这些都是保守的估计，如果运营势头保持强劲，未来几个月有向上修正的潜力。</blockquote></p><p> For the fiscal year 2025, revenues are expected to be about $44 billion, which seems too much low considering that for FY 2022 revenues are expected to be around $40 billion. I’m more bullish than current consensus and see revenues of around $50 billion by FY 2025, expecting annual revenue growth of around 7-8% per year between FY 2023 and 2025, which I think is still quite conservative.</p><p><blockquote>2025财年的收入预计约为440亿美元，考虑到2022财年的收入预计约为400亿美元，这似乎太低了。我比目前的共识更乐观，预计到2025财年的收入将达到500亿美元左右，预计2023财年至2025财年的年收入增长约为7-8%，我认为这仍然相当保守。</blockquote></p><p> Its bottom-line is expected to increase to more than $14 billion in FY 2025 in my estimates, slightly above consensus because I’m expecting higher revenues, which implies an EPS of around $12 by FY 2025.</p><p><blockquote>根据我的估计，2025财年其净利润预计将增至140亿美元以上，略高于共识，因为我预计收入会更高，这意味着到2025财年每股收益约为12美元。</blockquote></p><p> Regarding valuation, my approach is to look into the next few years of revenues and earnings rather than just focus on this year or the next, to see if the stock has upside potential over a time frame of two to four years. Therefore, I use FY 2025 estimates to see if Qualcomm’s stock has upside potential over the medium term or not.</p><p><blockquote>关于估值，我的方法是关注未来几年的收入和盈利，而不仅仅是关注今年或明年，看看该股在两到四年内是否有上涨潜力。因此，我使用2025财年的预测来了解高通的股票在中期内是否有上涨潜力。</blockquote></p><p> Based on Qualcomm’s EPS estimate of $12 by FY 2025 and its historical valuation multiple over the past couple of years regarding its blended forward earnings (next 12 months) of 17.3x, my price target for Qualcomm by September 2024 is $207 per share.</p><p><blockquote>根据高通到2025财年的每股收益预期为12美元，以及过去几年混合预期收益（未来12个月）17.3倍的历史估值倍数，我对高通到2024年9月的目标价为每股207美元。</blockquote></p><p> This means that Qualcomm’s upside potential, based on these assumptions, is about 15% over the next three years, which is not impressive and show that a good part of its growth in the medium term is already reflected in its share price.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着，基于这些假设，高通未来三年的上涨潜力约为15%，这并不令人印象深刻，并表明其中期增长的很大一部分已经反映在其股价中。</blockquote></p><p> Note that over the past two years Qualcomm’s forward earnings multiple has been somewhat volatile, trading between 13-22x forward earnings. When I wrote my previous article on Qualcomm, its shares were trading at the bottom of this range and the stock was clearly a buy, while now is trading close to its historical value. This means that there is more upside potential over the medium term, as Qualcomm is clearly well-positioned to benefit from 5G, IoT, and industrial and automotive connectivity, thus a re-rating to higher multiples is possible in the next couple of years.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，过去两年高通的预期市盈率有些波动，预期市盈率在13-22倍之间。当我写上一篇关于高通的文章时，其股价处于该区间的底部，显然值得买入，而现在的交易价格接近其历史价值。这意味着中期内有更大的上涨潜力，因为高通显然处于有利地位，可以从5G、物联网以及工业和汽车连接中受益，因此未来几年有可能重新评级至更高的倍数。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb82ba4ac66c3ed8128484453fc4730c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"204\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Bloomberg.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：彭博。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Bottom Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> Qualcomm’s operating momentum has improved markedly in recent quarters and growth prospects are good in the coming years, as the company’s product diversification strategy is making good progress and is expected to support growth in coming years.</p><p><blockquote>高通近几个季度的经营势头明显改善，未来几年的增长前景良好，因为该公司的产品多元化战略正在取得良好进展，预计将支持未来几年的增长。</blockquote></p><p> However, its stock has rapidly incorporated improved fundamentals with the company’s recent earnings and investor day, and now upside potential is more limited than it was a couple of months ago. Investors who are exposed to Qualcomm should ‘hold’ and buy more during potential pullbacks in the future.</p><p><blockquote>然而，其股票已迅速将基本面的改善与公司最近的盈利和投资者日结合起来，现在的上涨潜力比几个月前更加有限。投资高通的投资者应该“持有”并在未来潜在回调期间买入更多股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4471977-qualcomm-stock-strong-rally-now-hold\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"QCOM":"高通"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4471977-qualcomm-stock-strong-rally-now-hold","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174337163","content_text":"Summary\n\nQualcomm is well-positioned to benefit from secular growth trends of 5G, IoT, and industrial and auto connectivity.\nIts recent operating performance has been quite good and momentum should remain strong in the next few quarters, even though growth is expected to moderate in the medium term.\nAfter a strong stock rally, the upside is now more limited and investors should buy more during potential pullbacks.\n\nG0d4ather/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nQUALCOMM(QCOM) has interesting growth prospects over the coming years supported from 5G, IoT and industrial and auto connectivity, but its share price performance has been quite strong over the past couple of months and Qualcomm is now a ‘hold’.\nBackground\nAbout two months ago, I have recommended Qualcomm as an interesting play in the 5G and Internet of Things (IoT) secular growth theme, even though there are some medium-term risks, such as competition from MediaTek(OTCPK:MDTKF) in the mobile segment and the possibility of losing Apple’s(AAPL) modem business.\nSince my article, Qualcomm’s share price has been on fire, up by more than 39% in about two months, supported by strong earnings and an upbeat investor day in the past week.\nSource: Seeking Alpha.\nAfter a strong run, I think it’s time to see if Qualcomm still offers value to investors if its shares are now expensive. In this article, I review its most recent earnings and investor day, plus I check if its valuation is still attractive or not, considering Qualcomm’s medium-term earnings expectations.\nRecent Earnings\nQualcomm has reported positive results regarding the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2021 (FY 2021 - for the year ended on September 26, 2021), at the beginning of this month. The company reported revenues 5% higher than expected related to Q4, while its bottom-line beat estimates by close to 13%.\nFor the full fiscal year, the company was able to beat targets set at its investor day in 2019 for revenue growth and margin expansion, boding well for growth ahead.\nIn FY 2021, Qualcomm’s revenues amounted to $33.56 billion (up by 43% YoY), while its operating income was close to $10.3 billion (+80% YoY). Its net income increased by 74% YoY to more than $9 billion, reaching a net profit margin of 26.9% (vs. 22.1% in FY 2020).\nSource: Qualcomm.\nQualcomm’s growth engine was the QCT segment (technologies), with revenue up by 64% YoY, while the licensing segment (QTL) reported 26% YoY revenue growth. In the QTL segment, Qualcomm’s growth was broad based, with radio filters and IoT being particularly strong.\nSource: Qualcomm.\nDespite the company’s diversification strategy, Qualcomm is still heavily exposed to the mobile market (handsets) which represented some 62% of its QTL revenues. However, this weight is expected to gradually decrease over the next few years, as other segments such as IoT should have higher growth rates over the medium to long term, given that handsets have benefitted cyclically from the rapid shift to 5G phones over the past year.\nI see these results as quite good and above my own expectations, with the company being able to report annual revenues in excess of $10 billion for RF, auto and IoT together, a great milestone for Qualcomm and more than doubled compared to FY 2019.\nThis clearly shows that Qualcomm’s diversification strategy is progressing well and execution has been positive, which increases confidence on future growth targets. Beyond that, the current chip shortage is also impacting Qualcomm’s business, like for everyone else in the industry, making its recent growth even more impressive.\nRegarding its shareholder remuneration policy, during the last fiscal year, Qualcomm has made close to $3.4 billion in stock repurchases and distributed dividends of $3 billion. Thus, its total capital return to shareholders amounted to $6.4 billion, which represented more than 70% of its bottom-line. However, its dividend yield is only about 1.5%, thus I see Qualcomm mainly as a ‘growth’ play, while income is not high enough to be a reason to buy Qualcomm’s shares.\nQualcomm’s outlook for the next quarter is also positive, with the company expecting more than $10 billion in revenues and diluted EPS in the range $2.53-2.73. Even though Qualcomm’s business has some seasonality, Q1 is usually a stronger quarter, this outlook implies annual revenues close to $40 billion, or up by 19% compared to the previous FY.\nThis is in-line with current street expectations, given that the current consensus is for FY 2022 revenues of $39.5 billion, showing that Qualcomm’s recent growth is not temporary.\nOn the other hand, as I’ve highlighted as a potential risk in my previous analysis, there were additional rumors recently thatApple(AAPL) will use its own 5G modem chip in 2023, instead of using Qualcomm’s chips. It is difficult to quantify how much revenue will Qualcomm lose from this, but certainly will be material and is a potential headwind for revenue and earnings growth in the medium term that investors should be aware of.\nNevertheless, the company has recently shown in its investor day that its business is well exposed to some secular growth trends, such as IoT or car and industrial connectivity powered by 5G. This bodes well for its growth prospects over the next few years, and also to smooth the impact of losing some business from Apple.\nInvestor Day\nAs I’ve discussed previously on Qualcomm, the company is well-positioned to benefit from secular growth trends of 5G and IoT, considering that it has adapted its product portfolio quite well in recent years for the expected higher demand for these wireless technologies over the next few years, beyond the mobile industry.\nIts growth strategy has been to diversify its product offering so that it can offer solutions and products for more industries and different type of customers, namely in the automotive or the industrial sectors, increasing Qualcomm’s total addressable market and higher long-term growth prospects than relying too much on the mobile industry.\nThe company has several technologies for mobile and connectivity that have great growth prospects due to the ongoing digital transformation, which is not expected to slow down in the future. Indeed, in its recent investor day, Qualcomm said that its total addressable market is expected to expand significantly over the next decade, from about $100 billion currently to some $700 billion by 2030. This is justified by the rising number of devices that are expected to be connected to the internet, generating a vast amount of data, being a strong tailwind for the company’s growth ahead.\nSource: Qualcomm.\nQualcomm also discussed again its technologies spanning several end-markets beyond handsets, with IoT, automotive or virtual reality devices being, in my opinion, segments that are still relatively small for the company and have great growth prospects to become a sizable part of Qualcomm’s business in the next few years. For instance, Qualcomm targets annual revenues from IoT of around $9 billion by FY 2024, compared to $5 billion last year, while in Automotive it expects to grow from annual revenues of $1 billion last year to around $3.5 billion in five years.\nSource: Qualcomm.\nIn the mobile segment, Qualcomm also sees good long-term growth prospects due to 5G, with 5G handsets expected to gradually increase the weight in total shipments to about 85% by fiscal year 2024 and double from the total shipments delivered in the last year.\nSource: Qualcomm.\nRegarding its capital structure and shareholder remuneration policy, Qualcomm intends to maintain its policy of distributing a large part of its free cash flow to shareholders, both through a growing dividend and opportunistic share buybacks. As the company’s financial leverage is strong, measured by its net debt-to-EBITDA ratio below 0.5x at the end of FY 2021, it doesn’t need to retain much cash so I expect Qualcomm to distribute close to 100% of its free cash flow to shareholders over the next few years.\nHowever, this could change if the company pursues acquisitions, especially if it performs a large acquisition financed mainly by debt. That would increase the company’s financial leverage and, most likely, its strategy would then change towards reducing leverage in subsequent years until it reaches again a strong balance sheet as it has today.\nEstimates & Valuation\nRegarding medium-term estimates, Qualcomm’s revenues are expected to grow at about 7.3% per year, over the next four years, slowing down significantly compared to FY 2021. I think these are conservative estimates and there is upside potential for upward revisions over the coming months if operating momentum remains strong.\nFor the fiscal year 2025, revenues are expected to be about $44 billion, which seems too much low considering that for FY 2022 revenues are expected to be around $40 billion. I’m more bullish than current consensus and see revenues of around $50 billion by FY 2025, expecting annual revenue growth of around 7-8% per year between FY 2023 and 2025, which I think is still quite conservative.\nIts bottom-line is expected to increase to more than $14 billion in FY 2025 in my estimates, slightly above consensus because I’m expecting higher revenues, which implies an EPS of around $12 by FY 2025.\nRegarding valuation, my approach is to look into the next few years of revenues and earnings rather than just focus on this year or the next, to see if the stock has upside potential over a time frame of two to four years. Therefore, I use FY 2025 estimates to see if Qualcomm’s stock has upside potential over the medium term or not.\nBased on Qualcomm’s EPS estimate of $12 by FY 2025 and its historical valuation multiple over the past couple of years regarding its blended forward earnings (next 12 months) of 17.3x, my price target for Qualcomm by September 2024 is $207 per share.\nThis means that Qualcomm’s upside potential, based on these assumptions, is about 15% over the next three years, which is not impressive and show that a good part of its growth in the medium term is already reflected in its share price.\nNote that over the past two years Qualcomm’s forward earnings multiple has been somewhat volatile, trading between 13-22x forward earnings. When I wrote my previous article on Qualcomm, its shares were trading at the bottom of this range and the stock was clearly a buy, while now is trading close to its historical value. This means that there is more upside potential over the medium term, as Qualcomm is clearly well-positioned to benefit from 5G, IoT, and industrial and automotive connectivity, thus a re-rating to higher multiples is possible in the next couple of years.\nSource: Bloomberg.\nBottom Line\nQualcomm’s operating momentum has improved markedly in recent quarters and growth prospects are good in the coming years, as the company’s product diversification strategy is making good progress and is expected to support growth in coming years.\nHowever, its stock has rapidly incorporated improved fundamentals with the company’s recent earnings and investor day, and now upside potential is more limited than it was a couple of months ago. Investors who are exposed to Qualcomm should ‘hold’ and buy more during potential pullbacks in the future.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"QCOM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2393,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":874476745,"gmtCreate":1637817887881,"gmtModify":1637817887881,"author":{"id":"3581305621743723","authorId":"3581305621743723","name":"Erikku","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/294b2fdf23d2efd60a7c0694ef8e548c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581305621743723","idStr":"3581305621743723"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Shit I just sold it[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"Shit I just sold it[开心]&nbsp;","text":"Shit I just sold it[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/874476745","repostId":"1162805432","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3396,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":845509107,"gmtCreate":1636346572109,"gmtModify":1636346572255,"author":{"id":"3581305621743723","authorId":"3581305621743723","name":"Erikku","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/294b2fdf23d2efd60a7c0694ef8e548c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581305621743723","idStr":"3581305621743723"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Thanks","listText":"Thanks","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/845509107","repostId":"842658338","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":842658338,"gmtCreate":1636173269102,"gmtModify":1636320946145,"author":{"id":"3563873670221480","authorId":"3563873670221480","name":"我i168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34b2d0551b5ab028c13ab35747c4df8c","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563873670221480","idStr":"3563873670221480"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/S51.SI\">$SEMBCORP MARINE LTD(S51.SI)$</a>...Price rose a bit (a bit can be big in percentage) after GMO ended, good for those who hold&nbsp;on&nbsp;to their shares.Going forward, just be watchful of various developments. They can be,Positive&nbsp;ones:&nbsp;merger with KOM, secure new orders, successful completion of ongoing projects, etc.Negative ones: cash call, possible butcould be in other forms; delay in project delivery, lack of new orders, etc.In middle term, we&nbsp;may still experience volatile price movement.","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/S51.SI\">$SEMBCORP MARINE LTD(S51.SI)$</a>...Price rose a bit (a bit can be big in percentage) after GMO ended, good for those who hold&nbsp;on&nbsp;to their shares.Going forward, just be watchful of various developments. They can be,Positive&nbsp;ones:&nbsp;merger with KOM, secure new orders, successful completion of ongoing projects, etc.Negative ones: cash call, possible butcould be in other forms; delay in project delivery, lack of new orders, etc.In middle term, we&nbsp;may still experience volatile price movement.","text":"$SEMBCORP MARINE LTD(S51.SI)$...Price rose a bit (a bit can be big in percentage) after GMO ended, good for those who hold on to their shares.Going forward, just be watchful of various developments. They can be,Positive ones: merger with KOM, secure new orders, successful completion of ongoing projects, etc.Negative ones: cash call, possible butcould be in other forms; delay in project delivery, lack of new orders, etc.In middle term, we may still experience volatile price movement.","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dae6192626bb291786ff8039d3c2adfa","width":"1125","height":"3213"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/842658338","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2518,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":845242732,"gmtCreate":1636345202493,"gmtModify":1636345202686,"author":{"id":"3581305621743723","authorId":"3581305621743723","name":"Erikku","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/294b2fdf23d2efd60a7c0694ef8e548c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581305621743723","idStr":"3581305621743723"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Thanks","listText":"Thanks","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/845242732","repostId":"2181972851","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3195,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":868682491,"gmtCreate":1632640162313,"gmtModify":1632647206313,"author":{"id":"3581305621743723","authorId":"3581305621743723","name":"Erikku","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/294b2fdf23d2efd60a7c0694ef8e548c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581305621743723","idStr":"3581305621743723"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Thanks for sharing&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks for sharing&nbsp;","text":"Thanks for sharing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/868682491","repostId":"2170614570","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2098,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":881037479,"gmtCreate":1631280973991,"gmtModify":1631889477310,"author":{"id":"3581305621743723","authorId":"3581305621743723","name":"Erikku","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/294b2fdf23d2efd60a7c0694ef8e548c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581305621743723","idStr":"3581305621743723"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/881037479","repostId":"2166237337","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2138,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":881034152,"gmtCreate":1631280925276,"gmtModify":1631889477313,"author":{"id":"3581305621743723","authorId":"3581305621743723","name":"Erikku","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/294b2fdf23d2efd60a7c0694ef8e548c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581305621743723","idStr":"3581305621743723"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Thx","listText":"Thx","text":"Thx","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/881034152","repostId":"2166509373","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1823,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":883230255,"gmtCreate":1631242013777,"gmtModify":1631889477315,"author":{"id":"3581305621743723","authorId":"3581305621743723","name":"Erikku","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/294b2fdf23d2efd60a7c0694ef8e548c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581305621743723","idStr":"3581305621743723"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Oh no","listText":"Oh no","text":"Oh no","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/883230255","repostId":"2166426123","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":415,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":889097082,"gmtCreate":1631089236246,"gmtModify":1631889477319,"author":{"id":"3581305621743723","authorId":"3581305621743723","name":"Erikku","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/294b2fdf23d2efd60a7c0694ef8e548c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581305621743723","idStr":"3581305621743723"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Thanks","listText":"Thanks","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/889097082","repostId":"1184488523","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184488523","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631070273,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1184488523?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-08 11:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"GameStop’s Earnings Are Coming. Nobody Knows What to Expect—Aside From Volatility.<blockquote>游戏驿站的财报即将发布。除了波动性之外，没有人知道会发生什么。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184488523","media":"Barrons","summary":"After a relatively quiet couple of months, GameStop stock is back in the spotlight. The videogame retailer-turned –meme sensation is set to report July quarter results after the market closes on Wednesday.The consensus among the four analysts still covering the stock and providing estimates to FactSet is that the company  will report a fiscal second-quarter adjusted net loss of 67 cents a share. They forecast sales of about $1.23 billion, down from $1.28 billion in the first quarter but an impro","content":"<p>After a relatively quiet couple of months, GameStop stock is back in the spotlight. The videogame retailer-turned –meme sensation is set to report July quarter results after the market closes on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>经过相对平静的几个月后，游戏驿站股票重新成为人们关注的焦点。这家由视频游戏零售商转型为迷因的轰动人物将于周三收盘后公布7月份季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> The consensus among the four analysts still covering the stock and providing estimates to FactSet is that the company (ticker: GME) will report a fiscal second-quarter adjusted net loss of 67 cents a share. They forecast sales of about $1.23 billion, down from $1.28 billion in the first quarter but an improvement from $942&nbsp;million in the second quarter of last year.</p><p><blockquote>仍在研究该股并向FactSet提供预测的四位分析师一致认为，该公司（股票代码：GME）将报告第二财季调整后每股净亏损67美分。他们预测销售额约为12.3亿美元，低于第一季度的12.8亿美元，但较去年第二季度的9.42亿美元有所改善。</blockquote></p><p> For Wednesday evening’s report, options markets imply a 9% to 12% move, up or down, after earnings. If the&nbsp;past two reports&nbsp;are any indicator,&nbsp;expect volatility.</p><p><blockquote>对于周三晚间的报告，期权市场意味着财报公布后将上涨或下跌9%至12%。如果过去的两份报告有任何指标的话，预计会出现波动。</blockquote></p><p> More important to investors will be updates from the company’s new management team. Activist investor and Chewy co-founder Ryan Cohen joined the GameStop board in January—which kickstarted&nbsp;the stock’s initial surge—and&nbsp;became the board’s chairman in June.&nbsp;CEO Matt Furlong and Chief Financial Officer Mike Recupero—both&nbsp;Amazon.com&nbsp;alums—started in their roles at GameStop on June 21 and July 12, respectively, so this will be both executives’ first earnings report.</p><p><blockquote>对投资者来说，更重要的是公司新管理团队的最新消息。激进投资者、Chewy联合创始人Ryan Cohen于1月份加入游戏驿站董事会，推动了该股最初的飙升，并于6月份成为董事会主席。首席执行官Matt Furlong和首席财务官Mike Recupero都是Amazon.com的校友，他们分别于6月21日和7月12日开始在游戏驿站任职，因此这将是两位高管的首次财报。</blockquote></p><p> Through&nbsp;hiring a swath of executives&nbsp;with substantial e-commerce experience and&nbsp;investing in fulfillment,&nbsp;the company has signaled progress on efforts to revamp GameStop’s digital presence and customer service efforts. Still, Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter told&nbsp;Barron’s&nbsp;the company hasn’t provided any substance to its strategic ambitions.</p><p><blockquote>通过聘请一大批具有丰富电子商务经验的高管并投资于履行，该公司表明在改造游戏驿站数字业务和客户服务方面取得了进展。尽管如此，Wedbush分析师Michael Pachter告诉《巴伦周刊》，该公司尚未为其战略雄心提供任何实质内容。</blockquote></p><p> “They want to be like Amazon,” Pachter added.&nbsp;“I expect them to keep the mystery alive.”</p><p><blockquote>“他们想像亚马逊一样，”帕切特补充道，“我希望他们保持神秘。”</blockquote></p><p> In June, Cohen said he wouldn’t make lofty promises&nbsp;or telegraph his strategy to competitors. Still, he listed goals such as “delighting customers and driving shareholder value for the long-term.” A substantive update, or significant progress on its turnaround efforts, could provide a spark for the stock.</p><p><blockquote>六月，科恩表示，他不会做出崇高的承诺，也不会向竞争对手传达他的战略。尽管如此，他还是列出了“取悦客户并推动长期股东价值”等目标。实质性的更新或扭亏为盈的重大进展可能会为该股带来火花。</blockquote></p><p> Still, David Trainer, CEO of investment research firm New Constructs, argues shares are trading on meme momentum, rather than fundamentals. He thinks the share price would be closer to $30 if it were trading based on the business’ fundamentals.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，投资研究公司New Constructs的首席执行官大卫·特雷纳(David Trainer)认为，股票的交易是基于模因势头，而不是基本面。他认为，如果根据业务基本面进行交易，股价将接近30美元。</blockquote></p><p> “The business results that are implied in GameStop’s current stock price are far, far beyond what any reasonable person might expect the company to achieve,” Trainer says. “Even if GameStop’s management transforms the business into a wildly larger and more profitable enterprise, the stock isn’t likely to move higher because that business momentum is already priced-in.”</p><p><blockquote>特雷纳表示：“游戏驿站当前股价所隐含的业务成果远远超出了任何理智的人对该公司所能实现的预期。”“即使游戏驿站的管理层将业务转变为一家规模更大、利润更高的企业，该股也不太可能走高，因为这种业务势头已经被消化了。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc8011722098e7615e83dd0aa358901e\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"1248\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> With GameStop shares down 1.9% to $199 on Tuesday, the stock was still up 2,500% in the past year and 956% year-to-date. Shares were down 34% from their close on June 7. While it’s difficult to nail down what moves GameStop stock on any given day,&nbsp;short seller activity,&nbsp;options volume, momentum trading, and&nbsp;online chatter&nbsp;are among the nonfundamental factors to consider.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站股价周二下跌1.9%至199美元，但该股去年仍上涨2,500%，今年迄今上涨956%。股价较6月7日收盘价下跌34%。虽然很难确定游戏驿站股票在任何一天的走势，但卖空者活动、期权交易量、动量交易和在线聊天都是需要考虑的非基本面因素。</blockquote></p><p> Ihor Dusaniwsky, managing director at short-selling analytics provider S3 Partners, estimates GameStop’s short interest sits at $1.41 billion. His estimate at 6.94 million shares shorted represents roughly 11% of shares available for trading.</p><p><blockquote>卖空分析提供商S3 Partners董事总经理Ihor Dusaniwsky估计游戏驿站的空头权益为14.1亿美元。他估计有694万股被做空，约占可交易股票的11%。</blockquote></p><p> “Over the past week we saw significant short covering,” Dusaniwsky says, noting shares shorted decreased by about 306,000 shares, worth $62 million, even as the stock price fell</p><p><blockquote>杜萨尼夫斯基表示：“过去一周，我们看到了大量的空头回补。”他指出，尽管股价下跌，但被做空的股票仍减少了约306,000股，价值6,200万美元</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>GameStop’s Earnings Are Coming. Nobody Knows What to Expect—Aside From Volatility.<blockquote>游戏驿站的财报即将发布。除了波动性之外，没有人知道会发生什么。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGameStop’s Earnings Are Coming. Nobody Knows What to Expect—Aside From Volatility.<blockquote>游戏驿站的财报即将发布。除了波动性之外，没有人知道会发生什么。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-08 11:04</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>After a relatively quiet couple of months, GameStop stock is back in the spotlight. The videogame retailer-turned –meme sensation is set to report July quarter results after the market closes on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>经过相对平静的几个月后，游戏驿站股票重新成为人们关注的焦点。这家由视频游戏零售商转型为迷因的轰动人物将于周三收盘后公布7月份季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> The consensus among the four analysts still covering the stock and providing estimates to FactSet is that the company (ticker: GME) will report a fiscal second-quarter adjusted net loss of 67 cents a share. They forecast sales of about $1.23 billion, down from $1.28 billion in the first quarter but an improvement from $942&nbsp;million in the second quarter of last year.</p><p><blockquote>仍在研究该股并向FactSet提供预测的四位分析师一致认为，该公司（股票代码：GME）将报告第二财季调整后每股净亏损67美分。他们预测销售额约为12.3亿美元，低于第一季度的12.8亿美元，但较去年第二季度的9.42亿美元有所改善。</blockquote></p><p> For Wednesday evening’s report, options markets imply a 9% to 12% move, up or down, after earnings. If the&nbsp;past two reports&nbsp;are any indicator,&nbsp;expect volatility.</p><p><blockquote>对于周三晚间的报告，期权市场意味着财报公布后将上涨或下跌9%至12%。如果过去的两份报告有任何指标的话，预计会出现波动。</blockquote></p><p> More important to investors will be updates from the company’s new management team. Activist investor and Chewy co-founder Ryan Cohen joined the GameStop board in January—which kickstarted&nbsp;the stock’s initial surge—and&nbsp;became the board’s chairman in June.&nbsp;CEO Matt Furlong and Chief Financial Officer Mike Recupero—both&nbsp;Amazon.com&nbsp;alums—started in their roles at GameStop on June 21 and July 12, respectively, so this will be both executives’ first earnings report.</p><p><blockquote>对投资者来说，更重要的是公司新管理团队的最新消息。激进投资者、Chewy联合创始人Ryan Cohen于1月份加入游戏驿站董事会，推动了该股最初的飙升，并于6月份成为董事会主席。首席执行官Matt Furlong和首席财务官Mike Recupero都是Amazon.com的校友，他们分别于6月21日和7月12日开始在游戏驿站任职，因此这将是两位高管的首次财报。</blockquote></p><p> Through&nbsp;hiring a swath of executives&nbsp;with substantial e-commerce experience and&nbsp;investing in fulfillment,&nbsp;the company has signaled progress on efforts to revamp GameStop’s digital presence and customer service efforts. Still, Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter told&nbsp;Barron’s&nbsp;the company hasn’t provided any substance to its strategic ambitions.</p><p><blockquote>通过聘请一大批具有丰富电子商务经验的高管并投资于履行，该公司表明在改造游戏驿站数字业务和客户服务方面取得了进展。尽管如此，Wedbush分析师Michael Pachter告诉《巴伦周刊》，该公司尚未为其战略雄心提供任何实质内容。</blockquote></p><p> “They want to be like Amazon,” Pachter added.&nbsp;“I expect them to keep the mystery alive.”</p><p><blockquote>“他们想像亚马逊一样，”帕切特补充道，“我希望他们保持神秘。”</blockquote></p><p> In June, Cohen said he wouldn’t make lofty promises&nbsp;or telegraph his strategy to competitors. Still, he listed goals such as “delighting customers and driving shareholder value for the long-term.” A substantive update, or significant progress on its turnaround efforts, could provide a spark for the stock.</p><p><blockquote>六月，科恩表示，他不会做出崇高的承诺，也不会向竞争对手传达他的战略。尽管如此，他还是列出了“取悦客户并推动长期股东价值”等目标。实质性的更新或扭亏为盈的重大进展可能会为该股带来火花。</blockquote></p><p> Still, David Trainer, CEO of investment research firm New Constructs, argues shares are trading on meme momentum, rather than fundamentals. He thinks the share price would be closer to $30 if it were trading based on the business’ fundamentals.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，投资研究公司New Constructs的首席执行官大卫·特雷纳(David Trainer)认为，股票的交易是基于模因势头，而不是基本面。他认为，如果根据业务基本面进行交易，股价将接近30美元。</blockquote></p><p> “The business results that are implied in GameStop’s current stock price are far, far beyond what any reasonable person might expect the company to achieve,” Trainer says. “Even if GameStop’s management transforms the business into a wildly larger and more profitable enterprise, the stock isn’t likely to move higher because that business momentum is already priced-in.”</p><p><blockquote>特雷纳表示：“游戏驿站当前股价所隐含的业务成果远远超出了任何理智的人对该公司所能实现的预期。”“即使游戏驿站的管理层将业务转变为一家规模更大、利润更高的企业，该股也不太可能走高，因为这种业务势头已经被消化了。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc8011722098e7615e83dd0aa358901e\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"1248\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> With GameStop shares down 1.9% to $199 on Tuesday, the stock was still up 2,500% in the past year and 956% year-to-date. Shares were down 34% from their close on June 7. While it’s difficult to nail down what moves GameStop stock on any given day,&nbsp;short seller activity,&nbsp;options volume, momentum trading, and&nbsp;online chatter&nbsp;are among the nonfundamental factors to consider.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站股价周二下跌1.9%至199美元，但该股去年仍上涨2,500%，今年迄今上涨956%。股价较6月7日收盘价下跌34%。虽然很难确定游戏驿站股票在任何一天的走势，但卖空者活动、期权交易量、动量交易和在线聊天都是需要考虑的非基本面因素。</blockquote></p><p> Ihor Dusaniwsky, managing director at short-selling analytics provider S3 Partners, estimates GameStop’s short interest sits at $1.41 billion. His estimate at 6.94 million shares shorted represents roughly 11% of shares available for trading.</p><p><blockquote>卖空分析提供商S3 Partners董事总经理Ihor Dusaniwsky估计游戏驿站的空头权益为14.1亿美元。他估计有694万股被做空，约占可交易股票的11%。</blockquote></p><p> “Over the past week we saw significant short covering,” Dusaniwsky says, noting shares shorted decreased by about 306,000 shares, worth $62 million, even as the stock price fell</p><p><blockquote>杜萨尼夫斯基表示：“过去一周，我们看到了大量的空头回补。”他指出，尽管股价下跌，但被做空的股票仍减少了约306,000股，价值6,200万美元</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/gamestop-earnings-51631050837?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/gamestop-earnings-51631050837?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184488523","content_text":"After a relatively quiet couple of months, GameStop stock is back in the spotlight. The videogame retailer-turned –meme sensation is set to report July quarter results after the market closes on Wednesday.\nThe consensus among the four analysts still covering the stock and providing estimates to FactSet is that the company (ticker: GME) will report a fiscal second-quarter adjusted net loss of 67 cents a share. They forecast sales of about $1.23 billion, down from $1.28 billion in the first quarter but an improvement from $942 million in the second quarter of last year.\nFor Wednesday evening’s report, options markets imply a 9% to 12% move, up or down, after earnings. If the past two reports are any indicator, expect volatility.\nMore important to investors will be updates from the company’s new management team. Activist investor and Chewy co-founder Ryan Cohen joined the GameStop board in January—which kickstarted the stock’s initial surge—and became the board’s chairman in June. CEO Matt Furlong and Chief Financial Officer Mike Recupero—both Amazon.com alums—started in their roles at GameStop on June 21 and July 12, respectively, so this will be both executives’ first earnings report.\nThrough hiring a swath of executives with substantial e-commerce experience and investing in fulfillment, the company has signaled progress on efforts to revamp GameStop’s digital presence and customer service efforts. Still, Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter told Barron’s the company hasn’t provided any substance to its strategic ambitions.\n“They want to be like Amazon,” Pachter added. “I expect them to keep the mystery alive.”\nIn June, Cohen said he wouldn’t make lofty promises or telegraph his strategy to competitors. Still, he listed goals such as “delighting customers and driving shareholder value for the long-term.” A substantive update, or significant progress on its turnaround efforts, could provide a spark for the stock.\nStill, David Trainer, CEO of investment research firm New Constructs, argues shares are trading on meme momentum, rather than fundamentals. He thinks the share price would be closer to $30 if it were trading based on the business’ fundamentals.\n“The business results that are implied in GameStop’s current stock price are far, far beyond what any reasonable person might expect the company to achieve,” Trainer says. “Even if GameStop’s management transforms the business into a wildly larger and more profitable enterprise, the stock isn’t likely to move higher because that business momentum is already priced-in.”\n\nWith GameStop shares down 1.9% to $199 on Tuesday, the stock was still up 2,500% in the past year and 956% year-to-date. Shares were down 34% from their close on June 7. While it’s difficult to nail down what moves GameStop stock on any given day, short seller activity, options volume, momentum trading, and online chatter are among the nonfundamental factors to consider.\nIhor Dusaniwsky, managing director at short-selling analytics provider S3 Partners, estimates GameStop’s short interest sits at $1.41 billion. His estimate at 6.94 million shares shorted represents roughly 11% of shares available for trading.\n“Over the past week we saw significant short covering,” Dusaniwsky says, noting shares shorted decreased by about 306,000 shares, worth $62 million, even as the stock price fell","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":634,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":889094936,"gmtCreate":1631089183425,"gmtModify":1631889477320,"author":{"id":"3581305621743723","authorId":"3581305621743723","name":"Erikku","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/294b2fdf23d2efd60a7c0694ef8e548c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581305621743723","idStr":"3581305621743723"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Thanks","listText":"Thanks","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/889094936","repostId":"1184488523","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184488523","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631070273,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1184488523?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-08 11:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"GameStop’s Earnings Are Coming. Nobody Knows What to Expect—Aside From Volatility.<blockquote>游戏驿站的财报即将发布。除了波动性之外，没有人知道会发生什么。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184488523","media":"Barrons","summary":"After a relatively quiet couple of months, GameStop stock is back in the spotlight. The videogame retailer-turned –meme sensation is set to report July quarter results after the market closes on Wednesday.The consensus among the four analysts still covering the stock and providing estimates to FactSet is that the company  will report a fiscal second-quarter adjusted net loss of 67 cents a share. They forecast sales of about $1.23 billion, down from $1.28 billion in the first quarter but an impro","content":"<p>After a relatively quiet couple of months, GameStop stock is back in the spotlight. The videogame retailer-turned –meme sensation is set to report July quarter results after the market closes on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>经过相对平静的几个月后，游戏驿站股票重新成为人们关注的焦点。这家由视频游戏零售商转型为迷因的轰动人物将于周三收盘后公布7月份季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> The consensus among the four analysts still covering the stock and providing estimates to FactSet is that the company (ticker: GME) will report a fiscal second-quarter adjusted net loss of 67 cents a share. They forecast sales of about $1.23 billion, down from $1.28 billion in the first quarter but an improvement from $942&nbsp;million in the second quarter of last year.</p><p><blockquote>仍在研究该股并向FactSet提供预测的四位分析师一致认为，该公司（股票代码：GME）将报告第二财季调整后每股净亏损67美分。他们预测销售额约为12.3亿美元，低于第一季度的12.8亿美元，但较去年第二季度的9.42亿美元有所改善。</blockquote></p><p> For Wednesday evening’s report, options markets imply a 9% to 12% move, up or down, after earnings. If the&nbsp;past two reports&nbsp;are any indicator,&nbsp;expect volatility.</p><p><blockquote>对于周三晚间的报告，期权市场意味着财报公布后将上涨或下跌9%至12%。如果过去的两份报告有任何指标的话，预计会出现波动。</blockquote></p><p> More important to investors will be updates from the company’s new management team. Activist investor and Chewy co-founder Ryan Cohen joined the GameStop board in January—which kickstarted&nbsp;the stock’s initial surge—and&nbsp;became the board’s chairman in June.&nbsp;CEO Matt Furlong and Chief Financial Officer Mike Recupero—both&nbsp;Amazon.com&nbsp;alums—started in their roles at GameStop on June 21 and July 12, respectively, so this will be both executives’ first earnings report.</p><p><blockquote>对投资者来说，更重要的是公司新管理团队的最新消息。激进投资者、Chewy联合创始人Ryan Cohen于1月份加入游戏驿站董事会，推动了该股最初的飙升，并于6月份成为董事会主席。首席执行官Matt Furlong和首席财务官Mike Recupero都是Amazon.com的校友，他们分别于6月21日和7月12日开始在游戏驿站任职，因此这将是两位高管的首次财报。</blockquote></p><p> Through&nbsp;hiring a swath of executives&nbsp;with substantial e-commerce experience and&nbsp;investing in fulfillment,&nbsp;the company has signaled progress on efforts to revamp GameStop’s digital presence and customer service efforts. Still, Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter told&nbsp;Barron’s&nbsp;the company hasn’t provided any substance to its strategic ambitions.</p><p><blockquote>通过聘请一大批具有丰富电子商务经验的高管并投资于履行，该公司表明在改造游戏驿站数字业务和客户服务方面取得了进展。尽管如此，Wedbush分析师Michael Pachter告诉《巴伦周刊》，该公司尚未为其战略雄心提供任何实质内容。</blockquote></p><p> “They want to be like Amazon,” Pachter added.&nbsp;“I expect them to keep the mystery alive.”</p><p><blockquote>“他们想像亚马逊一样，”帕切特补充道，“我希望他们保持神秘。”</blockquote></p><p> In June, Cohen said he wouldn’t make lofty promises&nbsp;or telegraph his strategy to competitors. Still, he listed goals such as “delighting customers and driving shareholder value for the long-term.” A substantive update, or significant progress on its turnaround efforts, could provide a spark for the stock.</p><p><blockquote>六月，科恩表示，他不会做出崇高的承诺，也不会向竞争对手传达他的战略。尽管如此，他还是列出了“取悦客户并推动长期股东价值”等目标。实质性的更新或扭亏为盈的重大进展可能会为该股带来火花。</blockquote></p><p> Still, David Trainer, CEO of investment research firm New Constructs, argues shares are trading on meme momentum, rather than fundamentals. He thinks the share price would be closer to $30 if it were trading based on the business’ fundamentals.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，投资研究公司New Constructs的首席执行官大卫·特雷纳(David Trainer)认为，股票的交易是基于模因势头，而不是基本面。他认为，如果根据业务基本面进行交易，股价将接近30美元。</blockquote></p><p> “The business results that are implied in GameStop’s current stock price are far, far beyond what any reasonable person might expect the company to achieve,” Trainer says. “Even if GameStop’s management transforms the business into a wildly larger and more profitable enterprise, the stock isn’t likely to move higher because that business momentum is already priced-in.”</p><p><blockquote>特雷纳表示：“游戏驿站当前股价所隐含的业务成果远远超出了任何理智的人对该公司所能实现的预期。”“即使游戏驿站的管理层将业务转变为一家规模更大、利润更高的企业，该股也不太可能走高，因为这种业务势头已经被消化了。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc8011722098e7615e83dd0aa358901e\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"1248\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> With GameStop shares down 1.9% to $199 on Tuesday, the stock was still up 2,500% in the past year and 956% year-to-date. Shares were down 34% from their close on June 7. While it’s difficult to nail down what moves GameStop stock on any given day,&nbsp;short seller activity,&nbsp;options volume, momentum trading, and&nbsp;online chatter&nbsp;are among the nonfundamental factors to consider.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站股价周二下跌1.9%至199美元，但该股去年仍上涨2,500%，今年迄今上涨956%。股价较6月7日收盘价下跌34%。虽然很难确定游戏驿站股票在任何一天的走势，但卖空者活动、期权交易量、动量交易和在线聊天都是需要考虑的非基本面因素。</blockquote></p><p> Ihor Dusaniwsky, managing director at short-selling analytics provider S3 Partners, estimates GameStop’s short interest sits at $1.41 billion. His estimate at 6.94 million shares shorted represents roughly 11% of shares available for trading.</p><p><blockquote>卖空分析提供商S3 Partners董事总经理Ihor Dusaniwsky估计游戏驿站的空头权益为14.1亿美元。他估计有694万股被做空，约占可交易股票的11%。</blockquote></p><p> “Over the past week we saw significant short covering,” Dusaniwsky says, noting shares shorted decreased by about 306,000 shares, worth $62 million, even as the stock price fell</p><p><blockquote>杜萨尼夫斯基表示：“过去一周，我们看到了大量的空头回补。”他指出，尽管股价下跌，但被做空的股票仍减少了约306,000股，价值6,200万美元</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>GameStop’s Earnings Are Coming. Nobody Knows What to Expect—Aside From Volatility.<blockquote>游戏驿站的财报即将发布。除了波动性之外，没有人知道会发生什么。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGameStop’s Earnings Are Coming. Nobody Knows What to Expect—Aside From Volatility.<blockquote>游戏驿站的财报即将发布。除了波动性之外，没有人知道会发生什么。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-08 11:04</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>After a relatively quiet couple of months, GameStop stock is back in the spotlight. The videogame retailer-turned –meme sensation is set to report July quarter results after the market closes on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>经过相对平静的几个月后，游戏驿站股票重新成为人们关注的焦点。这家由视频游戏零售商转型为迷因的轰动人物将于周三收盘后公布7月份季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> The consensus among the four analysts still covering the stock and providing estimates to FactSet is that the company (ticker: GME) will report a fiscal second-quarter adjusted net loss of 67 cents a share. They forecast sales of about $1.23 billion, down from $1.28 billion in the first quarter but an improvement from $942&nbsp;million in the second quarter of last year.</p><p><blockquote>仍在研究该股并向FactSet提供预测的四位分析师一致认为，该公司（股票代码：GME）将报告第二财季调整后每股净亏损67美分。他们预测销售额约为12.3亿美元，低于第一季度的12.8亿美元，但较去年第二季度的9.42亿美元有所改善。</blockquote></p><p> For Wednesday evening’s report, options markets imply a 9% to 12% move, up or down, after earnings. If the&nbsp;past two reports&nbsp;are any indicator,&nbsp;expect volatility.</p><p><blockquote>对于周三晚间的报告，期权市场意味着财报公布后将上涨或下跌9%至12%。如果过去的两份报告有任何指标的话，预计会出现波动。</blockquote></p><p> More important to investors will be updates from the company’s new management team. Activist investor and Chewy co-founder Ryan Cohen joined the GameStop board in January—which kickstarted&nbsp;the stock’s initial surge—and&nbsp;became the board’s chairman in June.&nbsp;CEO Matt Furlong and Chief Financial Officer Mike Recupero—both&nbsp;Amazon.com&nbsp;alums—started in their roles at GameStop on June 21 and July 12, respectively, so this will be both executives’ first earnings report.</p><p><blockquote>对投资者来说，更重要的是公司新管理团队的最新消息。激进投资者、Chewy联合创始人Ryan Cohen于1月份加入游戏驿站董事会，推动了该股最初的飙升，并于6月份成为董事会主席。首席执行官Matt Furlong和首席财务官Mike Recupero都是Amazon.com的校友，他们分别于6月21日和7月12日开始在游戏驿站任职，因此这将是两位高管的首次财报。</blockquote></p><p> Through&nbsp;hiring a swath of executives&nbsp;with substantial e-commerce experience and&nbsp;investing in fulfillment,&nbsp;the company has signaled progress on efforts to revamp GameStop’s digital presence and customer service efforts. Still, Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter told&nbsp;Barron’s&nbsp;the company hasn’t provided any substance to its strategic ambitions.</p><p><blockquote>通过聘请一大批具有丰富电子商务经验的高管并投资于履行，该公司表明在改造游戏驿站数字业务和客户服务方面取得了进展。尽管如此，Wedbush分析师Michael Pachter告诉《巴伦周刊》，该公司尚未为其战略雄心提供任何实质内容。</blockquote></p><p> “They want to be like Amazon,” Pachter added.&nbsp;“I expect them to keep the mystery alive.”</p><p><blockquote>“他们想像亚马逊一样，”帕切特补充道，“我希望他们保持神秘。”</blockquote></p><p> In June, Cohen said he wouldn’t make lofty promises&nbsp;or telegraph his strategy to competitors. Still, he listed goals such as “delighting customers and driving shareholder value for the long-term.” A substantive update, or significant progress on its turnaround efforts, could provide a spark for the stock.</p><p><blockquote>六月，科恩表示，他不会做出崇高的承诺，也不会向竞争对手传达他的战略。尽管如此，他还是列出了“取悦客户并推动长期股东价值”等目标。实质性的更新或扭亏为盈的重大进展可能会为该股带来火花。</blockquote></p><p> Still, David Trainer, CEO of investment research firm New Constructs, argues shares are trading on meme momentum, rather than fundamentals. He thinks the share price would be closer to $30 if it were trading based on the business’ fundamentals.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，投资研究公司New Constructs的首席执行官大卫·特雷纳(David Trainer)认为，股票的交易是基于模因势头，而不是基本面。他认为，如果根据业务基本面进行交易，股价将接近30美元。</blockquote></p><p> “The business results that are implied in GameStop’s current stock price are far, far beyond what any reasonable person might expect the company to achieve,” Trainer says. “Even if GameStop’s management transforms the business into a wildly larger and more profitable enterprise, the stock isn’t likely to move higher because that business momentum is already priced-in.”</p><p><blockquote>特雷纳表示：“游戏驿站当前股价所隐含的业务成果远远超出了任何理智的人对该公司所能实现的预期。”“即使游戏驿站的管理层将业务转变为一家规模更大、利润更高的企业，该股也不太可能走高，因为这种业务势头已经被消化了。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc8011722098e7615e83dd0aa358901e\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"1248\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> With GameStop shares down 1.9% to $199 on Tuesday, the stock was still up 2,500% in the past year and 956% year-to-date. Shares were down 34% from their close on June 7. While it’s difficult to nail down what moves GameStop stock on any given day,&nbsp;short seller activity,&nbsp;options volume, momentum trading, and&nbsp;online chatter&nbsp;are among the nonfundamental factors to consider.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站股价周二下跌1.9%至199美元，但该股去年仍上涨2,500%，今年迄今上涨956%。股价较6月7日收盘价下跌34%。虽然很难确定游戏驿站股票在任何一天的走势，但卖空者活动、期权交易量、动量交易和在线聊天都是需要考虑的非基本面因素。</blockquote></p><p> Ihor Dusaniwsky, managing director at short-selling analytics provider S3 Partners, estimates GameStop’s short interest sits at $1.41 billion. His estimate at 6.94 million shares shorted represents roughly 11% of shares available for trading.</p><p><blockquote>卖空分析提供商S3 Partners董事总经理Ihor Dusaniwsky估计游戏驿站的空头权益为14.1亿美元。他估计有694万股被做空，约占可交易股票的11%。</blockquote></p><p> “Over the past week we saw significant short covering,” Dusaniwsky says, noting shares shorted decreased by about 306,000 shares, worth $62 million, even as the stock price fell</p><p><blockquote>杜萨尼夫斯基表示：“过去一周，我们看到了大量的空头回补。”他指出，尽管股价下跌，但被做空的股票仍减少了约306,000股，价值6,200万美元</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/gamestop-earnings-51631050837?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/gamestop-earnings-51631050837?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184488523","content_text":"After a relatively quiet couple of months, GameStop stock is back in the spotlight. The videogame retailer-turned –meme sensation is set to report July quarter results after the market closes on Wednesday.\nThe consensus among the four analysts still covering the stock and providing estimates to FactSet is that the company (ticker: GME) will report a fiscal second-quarter adjusted net loss of 67 cents a share. They forecast sales of about $1.23 billion, down from $1.28 billion in the first quarter but an improvement from $942 million in the second quarter of last year.\nFor Wednesday evening’s report, options markets imply a 9% to 12% move, up or down, after earnings. If the past two reports are any indicator, expect volatility.\nMore important to investors will be updates from the company’s new management team. Activist investor and Chewy co-founder Ryan Cohen joined the GameStop board in January—which kickstarted the stock’s initial surge—and became the board’s chairman in June. CEO Matt Furlong and Chief Financial Officer Mike Recupero—both Amazon.com alums—started in their roles at GameStop on June 21 and July 12, respectively, so this will be both executives’ first earnings report.\nThrough hiring a swath of executives with substantial e-commerce experience and investing in fulfillment, the company has signaled progress on efforts to revamp GameStop’s digital presence and customer service efforts. Still, Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter told Barron’s the company hasn’t provided any substance to its strategic ambitions.\n“They want to be like Amazon,” Pachter added. “I expect them to keep the mystery alive.”\nIn June, Cohen said he wouldn’t make lofty promises or telegraph his strategy to competitors. Still, he listed goals such as “delighting customers and driving shareholder value for the long-term.” A substantive update, or significant progress on its turnaround efforts, could provide a spark for the stock.\nStill, David Trainer, CEO of investment research firm New Constructs, argues shares are trading on meme momentum, rather than fundamentals. He thinks the share price would be closer to $30 if it were trading based on the business’ fundamentals.\n“The business results that are implied in GameStop’s current stock price are far, far beyond what any reasonable person might expect the company to achieve,” Trainer says. “Even if GameStop’s management transforms the business into a wildly larger and more profitable enterprise, the stock isn’t likely to move higher because that business momentum is already priced-in.”\n\nWith GameStop shares down 1.9% to $199 on Tuesday, the stock was still up 2,500% in the past year and 956% year-to-date. Shares were down 34% from their close on June 7. While it’s difficult to nail down what moves GameStop stock on any given day, short seller activity, options volume, momentum trading, and online chatter are among the nonfundamental factors to consider.\nIhor Dusaniwsky, managing director at short-selling analytics provider S3 Partners, estimates GameStop’s short interest sits at $1.41 billion. His estimate at 6.94 million shares shorted represents roughly 11% of shares available for trading.\n“Over the past week we saw significant short covering,” Dusaniwsky says, noting shares shorted decreased by about 306,000 shares, worth $62 million, even as the stock price fell","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":579,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":811230982,"gmtCreate":1630325195546,"gmtModify":1704958431094,"author":{"id":"3581305621743723","authorId":"3581305621743723","name":"Erikku","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/294b2fdf23d2efd60a7c0694ef8e548c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581305621743723","idStr":"3581305621743723"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/811230982","repostId":"2163776380","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":642,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":813393592,"gmtCreate":1630128162216,"gmtModify":1704956375910,"author":{"id":"3581305621743723","authorId":"3581305621743723","name":"Erikku","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/294b2fdf23d2efd60a7c0694ef8e548c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581305621743723","idStr":"3581305621743723"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HST.SI\">$Lion-OCBC Sec HSTECH S$(HST.SI)$</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HST.SI\">$Lion-OCBC Sec HSTECH S$(HST.SI)$</a>","text":"$Lion-OCBC Sec HSTECH S$(HST.SI)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fd36315dd555126206fd9fd0c8db77c","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/813393592","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":655,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":801295152,"gmtCreate":1627517700976,"gmtModify":1631889477327,"author":{"id":"3581305621743723","authorId":"3581305621743723","name":"Erikku","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/294b2fdf23d2efd60a7c0694ef8e548c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581305621743723","idStr":"3581305621743723"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Thanks","listText":"Thanks","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/801295152","repostId":"1127264445","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127264445","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627514621,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1127264445?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-29 07:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"S&P 500 ends off day's lows; Powell says Fed still a ways away from rate hikes<blockquote>标普500收于当日低点；鲍威尔称美联储距离加息还有很长的路要走</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127264445","media":"Reuters","summary":"NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&P 500 ended little changed on Wednesday but off its session lows after th","content":"<p>NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&amp;P 500 ended little changed on Wednesday but off its session lows after the Federal Reserve said the U.S. economic recovery remains on track and Chair Jerome <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">Powell</a> said the central bank was still a ways away from considering raising interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>路透纽约3月19日-标普500周三收盘变化不大，但脱离盘中低点，此前美联储表示美国经济复苏仍在正轨上，主席杰罗姆<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">鲍威尔</a>表示央行距离考虑加息还有一段路要走。</blockquote></p><p> Keeping the market in check, shares of tech giant <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a> Inc fell 1.2% after it forecast slowing revenue growth.</p><p><blockquote>控制市场，科技巨头的股票<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>Inc预测收入增长放缓，股价下跌1.2%。</blockquote></p><p> In a news conference following the release of a new policy statement from the Fed, Powell also said the U.S. job market still had “some ground to cover” before it would be time to pull back from the economic support the U.S. central bank put in place in the spring of 2020 to battle the coronavirus pandemic’s economic shocks.</p><p><blockquote>在美联储发布新政策声明后的新闻发布会上，鲍威尔还表示，在退出美联储提供的经济支持之前，美国就业市场仍有“一些地方需要覆盖”。2020年春季，以应对冠状病毒大流行的经济冲击。</blockquote></p><p> “It looks like probably the most positive thing for the market was that they are nowhere near increasing interest rates,” said Alan Lancz, president, Alan B. Lancz &amp; Associates Inc, an investment advisory firm based in Toledo, Ohio.</p><p><blockquote>总部位于俄亥俄州托莱多的投资咨询公司Alan B.Lancz&amp;Associates Inc总裁艾伦·兰茨(Alan Lancz)表示：“看起来对市场来说最积极的事情可能是他们远未加息。”</blockquote></p><p> Right after the Fed statement, the S&amp;P 500 index reversed slight declines though it still ended a hair lower on the day.</p><p><blockquote>美联储声明发布后，标普500指数扭转了小幅跌势，但当天收盘仍小幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">Investors</a> have been worried about how rising inflation and a spike in COVID-19 cases might impact the central bank’s plan to potentially start withdrawing its stimulus.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">投资者</a>一直担心通胀上升和COVID-19病例激增可能会影响央行可能开始撤回刺激措施的计划。</blockquote></p><p> The central bank also said that higher inflation remained the result of “transitory factors.” The Fed kept its overnight benchmark interest rate near zero and left unchanged its bond-buying program.</p><p><blockquote>央行还表示，通胀上升仍然是“暂时性因素”的结果。美联储将隔夜基准利率维持在零附近，并维持债券购买计划不变。</blockquote></p><p> The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a> ended higher and shares of Google parent <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a> Inc hit an all-time high as a surge in advertising spending helped it post record quarterly results. The stock ended up 3.2%.</p><p><blockquote>The<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">纳斯达克</a>谷歌母公司股价收高<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a>由于广告支出激增帮助其公布了创纪录的季度业绩，Inc创下历史新高。该股收盘上涨3.2%。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 127.59 points, or 0.36%, to 34,930.93, the S&amp;P 500 lost 0.82 point, or 0.02%, to 4,400.64 and the Nasdaq Composite added 102.01 points, or 0.7%, to 14,762.58.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数下跌127.59点，跌幅0.36%，至34,930.93点；标普500下跌0.82点，跌幅0.02%，至4,400.64点；纳斯达克综合指数上涨102.01点，跌幅0.7%，至14,762.58点。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s statement came at the conclusion of its latest two-day policy meeting.</p><p><blockquote>美联储的声明是在最近一次为期两天的政策会议结束时发表的。</blockquote></p><p> “They had a chance to signal they were going to become more hawkish and they chose not to take it. The most important thing is they are predictable and they are remaining predictable,” said Ellen Hazen, portfolio manager at F.L. Putnam Investment Management in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WEBK\">Wellesley</a>, Massachusetts.</p><p><blockquote>F.L.投资组合经理艾伦·哈森(Ellen Hazen)表示：“他们有机会发出信号，表明他们将变得更加鹰派，但他们选择不接受。最重要的是，他们是可预测的，而且仍然是可预测的。”普特南投资管理公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WEBK\">韦尔斯利</a>，马萨诸塞州。</blockquote></p><p> In other earnings news, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a> Corp ended down 0.1% even as a boom in cloud services helped it beat Wall Street expectations for revenue and earnings.</p><p><blockquote>在其他财报消息中，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>尽管云服务的繁荣帮助其收入和盈利超出了华尔街的预期，但该公司收盘下跌0.1%。</blockquote></p><p> Volume on U.S. exchanges was 9.86 billion shares, compared with a similar average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所的成交量为98.6亿股，而过去20个交易日的全交易日平均成交量相似。</blockquote></p><p> Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.85-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.61-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所上涨股与下跌股的比例为1.85比1；在纳斯达克，2.61比1的比率有利于上涨者。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 posted 42 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 44 new highs and 67 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下42个52周新高，无新低；纳斯达克综合指数录得44个新高和67个新低。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>S&P 500 ends off day's lows; Powell says Fed still a ways away from rate hikes<blockquote>标普500收于当日低点；鲍威尔称美联储距离加息还有很长的路要走</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS&P 500 ends off day's lows; Powell says Fed still a ways away from rate hikes<blockquote>标普500收于当日低点；鲍威尔称美联储距离加息还有很长的路要走</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-29 07:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&amp;P 500 ended little changed on Wednesday but off its session lows after the Federal Reserve said the U.S. economic recovery remains on track and Chair Jerome <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">Powell</a> said the central bank was still a ways away from considering raising interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>路透纽约3月19日-标普500周三收盘变化不大，但脱离盘中低点，此前美联储表示美国经济复苏仍在正轨上，主席杰罗姆<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">鲍威尔</a>表示央行距离考虑加息还有一段路要走。</blockquote></p><p> Keeping the market in check, shares of tech giant <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a> Inc fell 1.2% after it forecast slowing revenue growth.</p><p><blockquote>控制市场，科技巨头的股票<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>Inc预测收入增长放缓，股价下跌1.2%。</blockquote></p><p> In a news conference following the release of a new policy statement from the Fed, Powell also said the U.S. job market still had “some ground to cover” before it would be time to pull back from the economic support the U.S. central bank put in place in the spring of 2020 to battle the coronavirus pandemic’s economic shocks.</p><p><blockquote>在美联储发布新政策声明后的新闻发布会上，鲍威尔还表示，在退出美联储提供的经济支持之前，美国就业市场仍有“一些地方需要覆盖”。2020年春季，以应对冠状病毒大流行的经济冲击。</blockquote></p><p> “It looks like probably the most positive thing for the market was that they are nowhere near increasing interest rates,” said Alan Lancz, president, Alan B. Lancz &amp; Associates Inc, an investment advisory firm based in Toledo, Ohio.</p><p><blockquote>总部位于俄亥俄州托莱多的投资咨询公司Alan B.Lancz&amp;Associates Inc总裁艾伦·兰茨(Alan Lancz)表示：“看起来对市场来说最积极的事情可能是他们远未加息。”</blockquote></p><p> Right after the Fed statement, the S&amp;P 500 index reversed slight declines though it still ended a hair lower on the day.</p><p><blockquote>美联储声明发布后，标普500指数扭转了小幅跌势，但当天收盘仍小幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">Investors</a> have been worried about how rising inflation and a spike in COVID-19 cases might impact the central bank’s plan to potentially start withdrawing its stimulus.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">投资者</a>一直担心通胀上升和COVID-19病例激增可能会影响央行可能开始撤回刺激措施的计划。</blockquote></p><p> The central bank also said that higher inflation remained the result of “transitory factors.” The Fed kept its overnight benchmark interest rate near zero and left unchanged its bond-buying program.</p><p><blockquote>央行还表示，通胀上升仍然是“暂时性因素”的结果。美联储将隔夜基准利率维持在零附近，并维持债券购买计划不变。</blockquote></p><p> The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a> ended higher and shares of Google parent <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a> Inc hit an all-time high as a surge in advertising spending helped it post record quarterly results. The stock ended up 3.2%.</p><p><blockquote>The<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">纳斯达克</a>谷歌母公司股价收高<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a>由于广告支出激增帮助其公布了创纪录的季度业绩，Inc创下历史新高。该股收盘上涨3.2%。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 127.59 points, or 0.36%, to 34,930.93, the S&amp;P 500 lost 0.82 point, or 0.02%, to 4,400.64 and the Nasdaq Composite added 102.01 points, or 0.7%, to 14,762.58.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数下跌127.59点，跌幅0.36%，至34,930.93点；标普500下跌0.82点，跌幅0.02%，至4,400.64点；纳斯达克综合指数上涨102.01点，跌幅0.7%，至14,762.58点。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s statement came at the conclusion of its latest two-day policy meeting.</p><p><blockquote>美联储的声明是在最近一次为期两天的政策会议结束时发表的。</blockquote></p><p> “They had a chance to signal they were going to become more hawkish and they chose not to take it. The most important thing is they are predictable and they are remaining predictable,” said Ellen Hazen, portfolio manager at F.L. Putnam Investment Management in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WEBK\">Wellesley</a>, Massachusetts.</p><p><blockquote>F.L.投资组合经理艾伦·哈森(Ellen Hazen)表示：“他们有机会发出信号，表明他们将变得更加鹰派，但他们选择不接受。最重要的是，他们是可预测的，而且仍然是可预测的。”普特南投资管理公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WEBK\">韦尔斯利</a>，马萨诸塞州。</blockquote></p><p> In other earnings news, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a> Corp ended down 0.1% even as a boom in cloud services helped it beat Wall Street expectations for revenue and earnings.</p><p><blockquote>在其他财报消息中，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>尽管云服务的繁荣帮助其收入和盈利超出了华尔街的预期，但该公司收盘下跌0.1%。</blockquote></p><p> Volume on U.S. exchanges was 9.86 billion shares, compared with a similar average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所的成交量为98.6亿股，而过去20个交易日的全交易日平均成交量相似。</blockquote></p><p> Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.85-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.61-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所上涨股与下跌股的比例为1.85比1；在纳斯达克，2.61比1的比率有利于上涨者。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 posted 42 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 44 new highs and 67 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下42个52周新高，无新低；纳斯达克综合指数录得44个新高和67个新低。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks/us-stocks-sp-500-ends-off-days-lows-powell-says-fed-still-a-ways-away-from-rate-hikes-idUSL1N2P435H\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","OEX":"标普100",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks/us-stocks-sp-500-ends-off-days-lows-powell-says-fed-still-a-ways-away-from-rate-hikes-idUSL1N2P435H","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127264445","content_text":"NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&P 500 ended little changed on Wednesday but off its session lows after the Federal Reserve said the U.S. economic recovery remains on track and Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank was still a ways away from considering raising interest rates.\nKeeping the market in check, shares of tech giant Apple Inc fell 1.2% after it forecast slowing revenue growth.\nIn a news conference following the release of a new policy statement from the Fed, Powell also said the U.S. job market still had “some ground to cover” before it would be time to pull back from the economic support the U.S. central bank put in place in the spring of 2020 to battle the coronavirus pandemic’s economic shocks.\n“It looks like probably the most positive thing for the market was that they are nowhere near increasing interest rates,” said Alan Lancz, president, Alan B. Lancz & Associates Inc, an investment advisory firm based in Toledo, Ohio.\nRight after the Fed statement, the S&P 500 index reversed slight declines though it still ended a hair lower on the day.\nInvestors have been worried about how rising inflation and a spike in COVID-19 cases might impact the central bank’s plan to potentially start withdrawing its stimulus.\nThe central bank also said that higher inflation remained the result of “transitory factors.” The Fed kept its overnight benchmark interest rate near zero and left unchanged its bond-buying program.\nThe Nasdaq ended higher and shares of Google parent Alphabet Inc hit an all-time high as a surge in advertising spending helped it post record quarterly results. The stock ended up 3.2%.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 127.59 points, or 0.36%, to 34,930.93, the S&P 500 lost 0.82 point, or 0.02%, to 4,400.64 and the Nasdaq Composite added 102.01 points, or 0.7%, to 14,762.58.\nThe Fed’s statement came at the conclusion of its latest two-day policy meeting.\n“They had a chance to signal they were going to become more hawkish and they chose not to take it. The most important thing is they are predictable and they are remaining predictable,” said Ellen Hazen, portfolio manager at F.L. Putnam Investment Management in Wellesley, Massachusetts.\nIn other earnings news, Microsoft Corp ended down 0.1% even as a boom in cloud services helped it beat Wall Street expectations for revenue and earnings.\nVolume on U.S. exchanges was 9.86 billion shares, compared with a similar average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.\nAdvancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.85-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.61-to-1 ratio favored advancers.\nThe S&P 500 posted 42 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 44 new highs and 67 new lows.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"SDS":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":657,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":801292834,"gmtCreate":1627517658628,"gmtModify":1631889477334,"author":{"id":"3581305621743723","authorId":"3581305621743723","name":"Erikku","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/294b2fdf23d2efd60a7c0694ef8e548c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581305621743723","idStr":"3581305621743723"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/801292834","repostId":"1127264445","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127264445","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627514621,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1127264445?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-29 07:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"S&P 500 ends off day's lows; Powell says Fed still a ways away from rate hikes<blockquote>标普500收于当日低点；鲍威尔称美联储距离加息还有很长的路要走</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127264445","media":"Reuters","summary":"NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&P 500 ended little changed on Wednesday but off its session lows after th","content":"<p>NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&amp;P 500 ended little changed on Wednesday but off its session lows after the Federal Reserve said the U.S. economic recovery remains on track and Chair Jerome <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">Powell</a> said the central bank was still a ways away from considering raising interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>路透纽约3月19日-标普500周三收盘变化不大，但脱离盘中低点，此前美联储表示美国经济复苏仍在正轨上，主席杰罗姆<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">鲍威尔</a>表示央行距离考虑加息还有一段路要走。</blockquote></p><p> Keeping the market in check, shares of tech giant <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a> Inc fell 1.2% after it forecast slowing revenue growth.</p><p><blockquote>控制市场，科技巨头的股票<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>Inc预测收入增长放缓，股价下跌1.2%。</blockquote></p><p> In a news conference following the release of a new policy statement from the Fed, Powell also said the U.S. job market still had “some ground to cover” before it would be time to pull back from the economic support the U.S. central bank put in place in the spring of 2020 to battle the coronavirus pandemic’s economic shocks.</p><p><blockquote>在美联储发布新政策声明后的新闻发布会上，鲍威尔还表示，在退出美联储提供的经济支持之前，美国就业市场仍有“一些地方需要覆盖”。2020年春季，以应对冠状病毒大流行的经济冲击。</blockquote></p><p> “It looks like probably the most positive thing for the market was that they are nowhere near increasing interest rates,” said Alan Lancz, president, Alan B. Lancz &amp; Associates Inc, an investment advisory firm based in Toledo, Ohio.</p><p><blockquote>总部位于俄亥俄州托莱多的投资咨询公司Alan B.Lancz&amp;Associates Inc总裁艾伦·兰茨(Alan Lancz)表示：“看起来对市场来说最积极的事情可能是他们远未加息。”</blockquote></p><p> Right after the Fed statement, the S&amp;P 500 index reversed slight declines though it still ended a hair lower on the day.</p><p><blockquote>美联储声明发布后，标普500指数扭转了小幅跌势，但当天收盘仍小幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">Investors</a> have been worried about how rising inflation and a spike in COVID-19 cases might impact the central bank’s plan to potentially start withdrawing its stimulus.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">投资者</a>一直担心通胀上升和COVID-19病例激增可能会影响央行可能开始撤回刺激措施的计划。</blockquote></p><p> The central bank also said that higher inflation remained the result of “transitory factors.” The Fed kept its overnight benchmark interest rate near zero and left unchanged its bond-buying program.</p><p><blockquote>央行还表示，通胀上升仍然是“暂时性因素”的结果。美联储将隔夜基准利率维持在零附近，并维持债券购买计划不变。</blockquote></p><p> The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a> ended higher and shares of Google parent <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a> Inc hit an all-time high as a surge in advertising spending helped it post record quarterly results. The stock ended up 3.2%.</p><p><blockquote>The<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">纳斯达克</a>谷歌母公司股价收高<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a>由于广告支出激增帮助其公布了创纪录的季度业绩，Inc创下历史新高。该股收盘上涨3.2%。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 127.59 points, or 0.36%, to 34,930.93, the S&amp;P 500 lost 0.82 point, or 0.02%, to 4,400.64 and the Nasdaq Composite added 102.01 points, or 0.7%, to 14,762.58.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数下跌127.59点，跌幅0.36%，至34,930.93点；标普500下跌0.82点，跌幅0.02%，至4,400.64点；纳斯达克综合指数上涨102.01点，跌幅0.7%，至14,762.58点。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s statement came at the conclusion of its latest two-day policy meeting.</p><p><blockquote>美联储的声明是在最近一次为期两天的政策会议结束时发表的。</blockquote></p><p> “They had a chance to signal they were going to become more hawkish and they chose not to take it. The most important thing is they are predictable and they are remaining predictable,” said Ellen Hazen, portfolio manager at F.L. Putnam Investment Management in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WEBK\">Wellesley</a>, Massachusetts.</p><p><blockquote>F.L.投资组合经理艾伦·哈森(Ellen Hazen)表示：“他们有机会发出信号，表明他们将变得更加鹰派，但他们选择不接受。最重要的是，他们是可预测的，而且仍然是可预测的。”普特南投资管理公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WEBK\">韦尔斯利</a>，马萨诸塞州。</blockquote></p><p> In other earnings news, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a> Corp ended down 0.1% even as a boom in cloud services helped it beat Wall Street expectations for revenue and earnings.</p><p><blockquote>在其他财报消息中，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>尽管云服务的繁荣帮助其收入和盈利超出了华尔街的预期，但该公司收盘下跌0.1%。</blockquote></p><p> Volume on U.S. exchanges was 9.86 billion shares, compared with a similar average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所的成交量为98.6亿股，而过去20个交易日的全交易日平均成交量相似。</blockquote></p><p> Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.85-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.61-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所上涨股与下跌股的比例为1.85比1；在纳斯达克，2.61比1的比率有利于上涨者。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 posted 42 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 44 new highs and 67 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下42个52周新高，无新低；纳斯达克综合指数录得44个新高和67个新低。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>S&P 500 ends off day's lows; Powell says Fed still a ways away from rate hikes<blockquote>标普500收于当日低点；鲍威尔称美联储距离加息还有很长的路要走</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS&P 500 ends off day's lows; Powell says Fed still a ways away from rate hikes<blockquote>标普500收于当日低点；鲍威尔称美联储距离加息还有很长的路要走</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-29 07:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&amp;P 500 ended little changed on Wednesday but off its session lows after the Federal Reserve said the U.S. economic recovery remains on track and Chair Jerome <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">Powell</a> said the central bank was still a ways away from considering raising interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>路透纽约3月19日-标普500周三收盘变化不大，但脱离盘中低点，此前美联储表示美国经济复苏仍在正轨上，主席杰罗姆<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">鲍威尔</a>表示央行距离考虑加息还有一段路要走。</blockquote></p><p> Keeping the market in check, shares of tech giant <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a> Inc fell 1.2% after it forecast slowing revenue growth.</p><p><blockquote>控制市场，科技巨头的股票<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>Inc预测收入增长放缓，股价下跌1.2%。</blockquote></p><p> In a news conference following the release of a new policy statement from the Fed, Powell also said the U.S. job market still had “some ground to cover” before it would be time to pull back from the economic support the U.S. central bank put in place in the spring of 2020 to battle the coronavirus pandemic’s economic shocks.</p><p><blockquote>在美联储发布新政策声明后的新闻发布会上，鲍威尔还表示，在退出美联储提供的经济支持之前，美国就业市场仍有“一些地方需要覆盖”。2020年春季，以应对冠状病毒大流行的经济冲击。</blockquote></p><p> “It looks like probably the most positive thing for the market was that they are nowhere near increasing interest rates,” said Alan Lancz, president, Alan B. Lancz &amp; Associates Inc, an investment advisory firm based in Toledo, Ohio.</p><p><blockquote>总部位于俄亥俄州托莱多的投资咨询公司Alan B.Lancz&amp;Associates Inc总裁艾伦·兰茨(Alan Lancz)表示：“看起来对市场来说最积极的事情可能是他们远未加息。”</blockquote></p><p> Right after the Fed statement, the S&amp;P 500 index reversed slight declines though it still ended a hair lower on the day.</p><p><blockquote>美联储声明发布后，标普500指数扭转了小幅跌势，但当天收盘仍小幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">Investors</a> have been worried about how rising inflation and a spike in COVID-19 cases might impact the central bank’s plan to potentially start withdrawing its stimulus.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">投资者</a>一直担心通胀上升和COVID-19病例激增可能会影响央行可能开始撤回刺激措施的计划。</blockquote></p><p> The central bank also said that higher inflation remained the result of “transitory factors.” The Fed kept its overnight benchmark interest rate near zero and left unchanged its bond-buying program.</p><p><blockquote>央行还表示，通胀上升仍然是“暂时性因素”的结果。美联储将隔夜基准利率维持在零附近，并维持债券购买计划不变。</blockquote></p><p> The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a> ended higher and shares of Google parent <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a> Inc hit an all-time high as a surge in advertising spending helped it post record quarterly results. The stock ended up 3.2%.</p><p><blockquote>The<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">纳斯达克</a>谷歌母公司股价收高<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a>由于广告支出激增帮助其公布了创纪录的季度业绩，Inc创下历史新高。该股收盘上涨3.2%。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 127.59 points, or 0.36%, to 34,930.93, the S&amp;P 500 lost 0.82 point, or 0.02%, to 4,400.64 and the Nasdaq Composite added 102.01 points, or 0.7%, to 14,762.58.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数下跌127.59点，跌幅0.36%，至34,930.93点；标普500下跌0.82点，跌幅0.02%，至4,400.64点；纳斯达克综合指数上涨102.01点，跌幅0.7%，至14,762.58点。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s statement came at the conclusion of its latest two-day policy meeting.</p><p><blockquote>美联储的声明是在最近一次为期两天的政策会议结束时发表的。</blockquote></p><p> “They had a chance to signal they were going to become more hawkish and they chose not to take it. The most important thing is they are predictable and they are remaining predictable,” said Ellen Hazen, portfolio manager at F.L. Putnam Investment Management in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WEBK\">Wellesley</a>, Massachusetts.</p><p><blockquote>F.L.投资组合经理艾伦·哈森(Ellen Hazen)表示：“他们有机会发出信号，表明他们将变得更加鹰派，但他们选择不接受。最重要的是，他们是可预测的，而且仍然是可预测的。”普特南投资管理公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WEBK\">韦尔斯利</a>，马萨诸塞州。</blockquote></p><p> In other earnings news, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a> Corp ended down 0.1% even as a boom in cloud services helped it beat Wall Street expectations for revenue and earnings.</p><p><blockquote>在其他财报消息中，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>尽管云服务的繁荣帮助其收入和盈利超出了华尔街的预期，但该公司收盘下跌0.1%。</blockquote></p><p> Volume on U.S. exchanges was 9.86 billion shares, compared with a similar average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所的成交量为98.6亿股，而过去20个交易日的全交易日平均成交量相似。</blockquote></p><p> Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.85-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.61-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所上涨股与下跌股的比例为1.85比1；在纳斯达克，2.61比1的比率有利于上涨者。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 posted 42 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 44 new highs and 67 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下42个52周新高，无新低；纳斯达克综合指数录得44个新高和67个新低。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks/us-stocks-sp-500-ends-off-days-lows-powell-says-fed-still-a-ways-away-from-rate-hikes-idUSL1N2P435H\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","OEX":"标普100",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks/us-stocks-sp-500-ends-off-days-lows-powell-says-fed-still-a-ways-away-from-rate-hikes-idUSL1N2P435H","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127264445","content_text":"NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&P 500 ended little changed on Wednesday but off its session lows after the Federal Reserve said the U.S. economic recovery remains on track and Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank was still a ways away from considering raising interest rates.\nKeeping the market in check, shares of tech giant Apple Inc fell 1.2% after it forecast slowing revenue growth.\nIn a news conference following the release of a new policy statement from the Fed, Powell also said the U.S. job market still had “some ground to cover” before it would be time to pull back from the economic support the U.S. central bank put in place in the spring of 2020 to battle the coronavirus pandemic’s economic shocks.\n“It looks like probably the most positive thing for the market was that they are nowhere near increasing interest rates,” said Alan Lancz, president, Alan B. Lancz & Associates Inc, an investment advisory firm based in Toledo, Ohio.\nRight after the Fed statement, the S&P 500 index reversed slight declines though it still ended a hair lower on the day.\nInvestors have been worried about how rising inflation and a spike in COVID-19 cases might impact the central bank’s plan to potentially start withdrawing its stimulus.\nThe central bank also said that higher inflation remained the result of “transitory factors.” The Fed kept its overnight benchmark interest rate near zero and left unchanged its bond-buying program.\nThe Nasdaq ended higher and shares of Google parent Alphabet Inc hit an all-time high as a surge in advertising spending helped it post record quarterly results. The stock ended up 3.2%.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 127.59 points, or 0.36%, to 34,930.93, the S&P 500 lost 0.82 point, or 0.02%, to 4,400.64 and the Nasdaq Composite added 102.01 points, or 0.7%, to 14,762.58.\nThe Fed’s statement came at the conclusion of its latest two-day policy meeting.\n“They had a chance to signal they were going to become more hawkish and they chose not to take it. The most important thing is they are predictable and they are remaining predictable,” said Ellen Hazen, portfolio manager at F.L. Putnam Investment Management in Wellesley, Massachusetts.\nIn other earnings news, Microsoft Corp ended down 0.1% even as a boom in cloud services helped it beat Wall Street expectations for revenue and earnings.\nVolume on U.S. exchanges was 9.86 billion shares, compared with a similar average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.\nAdvancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.85-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.61-to-1 ratio favored advancers.\nThe S&P 500 posted 42 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 44 new highs and 67 new lows.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"SDS":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":674,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":801295152,"gmtCreate":1627517700976,"gmtModify":1631889477327,"author":{"id":"3581305621743723","authorId":"3581305621743723","name":"Erikku","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/294b2fdf23d2efd60a7c0694ef8e548c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581305621743723","idStr":"3581305621743723"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Thanks","listText":"Thanks","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/801295152","repostId":"1127264445","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127264445","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627514621,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1127264445?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-29 07:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"S&P 500 ends off day's lows; Powell says Fed still a ways away from rate hikes<blockquote>标普500收于当日低点；鲍威尔称美联储距离加息还有很长的路要走</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127264445","media":"Reuters","summary":"NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&P 500 ended little changed on Wednesday but off its session lows after th","content":"<p>NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&amp;P 500 ended little changed on Wednesday but off its session lows after the Federal Reserve said the U.S. economic recovery remains on track and Chair Jerome <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">Powell</a> said the central bank was still a ways away from considering raising interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>路透纽约3月19日-标普500周三收盘变化不大，但脱离盘中低点，此前美联储表示美国经济复苏仍在正轨上，主席杰罗姆<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">鲍威尔</a>表示央行距离考虑加息还有一段路要走。</blockquote></p><p> Keeping the market in check, shares of tech giant <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a> Inc fell 1.2% after it forecast slowing revenue growth.</p><p><blockquote>控制市场，科技巨头的股票<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>Inc预测收入增长放缓，股价下跌1.2%。</blockquote></p><p> In a news conference following the release of a new policy statement from the Fed, Powell also said the U.S. job market still had “some ground to cover” before it would be time to pull back from the economic support the U.S. central bank put in place in the spring of 2020 to battle the coronavirus pandemic’s economic shocks.</p><p><blockquote>在美联储发布新政策声明后的新闻发布会上，鲍威尔还表示，在退出美联储提供的经济支持之前，美国就业市场仍有“一些地方需要覆盖”。2020年春季，以应对冠状病毒大流行的经济冲击。</blockquote></p><p> “It looks like probably the most positive thing for the market was that they are nowhere near increasing interest rates,” said Alan Lancz, president, Alan B. Lancz &amp; Associates Inc, an investment advisory firm based in Toledo, Ohio.</p><p><blockquote>总部位于俄亥俄州托莱多的投资咨询公司Alan B.Lancz&amp;Associates Inc总裁艾伦·兰茨(Alan Lancz)表示：“看起来对市场来说最积极的事情可能是他们远未加息。”</blockquote></p><p> Right after the Fed statement, the S&amp;P 500 index reversed slight declines though it still ended a hair lower on the day.</p><p><blockquote>美联储声明发布后，标普500指数扭转了小幅跌势，但当天收盘仍小幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">Investors</a> have been worried about how rising inflation and a spike in COVID-19 cases might impact the central bank’s plan to potentially start withdrawing its stimulus.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">投资者</a>一直担心通胀上升和COVID-19病例激增可能会影响央行可能开始撤回刺激措施的计划。</blockquote></p><p> The central bank also said that higher inflation remained the result of “transitory factors.” The Fed kept its overnight benchmark interest rate near zero and left unchanged its bond-buying program.</p><p><blockquote>央行还表示，通胀上升仍然是“暂时性因素”的结果。美联储将隔夜基准利率维持在零附近，并维持债券购买计划不变。</blockquote></p><p> The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a> ended higher and shares of Google parent <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a> Inc hit an all-time high as a surge in advertising spending helped it post record quarterly results. The stock ended up 3.2%.</p><p><blockquote>The<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">纳斯达克</a>谷歌母公司股价收高<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a>由于广告支出激增帮助其公布了创纪录的季度业绩，Inc创下历史新高。该股收盘上涨3.2%。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 127.59 points, or 0.36%, to 34,930.93, the S&amp;P 500 lost 0.82 point, or 0.02%, to 4,400.64 and the Nasdaq Composite added 102.01 points, or 0.7%, to 14,762.58.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数下跌127.59点，跌幅0.36%，至34,930.93点；标普500下跌0.82点，跌幅0.02%，至4,400.64点；纳斯达克综合指数上涨102.01点，跌幅0.7%，至14,762.58点。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s statement came at the conclusion of its latest two-day policy meeting.</p><p><blockquote>美联储的声明是在最近一次为期两天的政策会议结束时发表的。</blockquote></p><p> “They had a chance to signal they were going to become more hawkish and they chose not to take it. The most important thing is they are predictable and they are remaining predictable,” said Ellen Hazen, portfolio manager at F.L. Putnam Investment Management in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WEBK\">Wellesley</a>, Massachusetts.</p><p><blockquote>F.L.投资组合经理艾伦·哈森(Ellen Hazen)表示：“他们有机会发出信号，表明他们将变得更加鹰派，但他们选择不接受。最重要的是，他们是可预测的，而且仍然是可预测的。”普特南投资管理公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WEBK\">韦尔斯利</a>，马萨诸塞州。</blockquote></p><p> In other earnings news, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a> Corp ended down 0.1% even as a boom in cloud services helped it beat Wall Street expectations for revenue and earnings.</p><p><blockquote>在其他财报消息中，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>尽管云服务的繁荣帮助其收入和盈利超出了华尔街的预期，但该公司收盘下跌0.1%。</blockquote></p><p> Volume on U.S. exchanges was 9.86 billion shares, compared with a similar average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所的成交量为98.6亿股，而过去20个交易日的全交易日平均成交量相似。</blockquote></p><p> Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.85-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.61-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所上涨股与下跌股的比例为1.85比1；在纳斯达克，2.61比1的比率有利于上涨者。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 posted 42 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 44 new highs and 67 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下42个52周新高，无新低；纳斯达克综合指数录得44个新高和67个新低。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>S&P 500 ends off day's lows; Powell says Fed still a ways away from rate hikes<blockquote>标普500收于当日低点；鲍威尔称美联储距离加息还有很长的路要走</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS&P 500 ends off day's lows; Powell says Fed still a ways away from rate hikes<blockquote>标普500收于当日低点；鲍威尔称美联储距离加息还有很长的路要走</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-29 07:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&amp;P 500 ended little changed on Wednesday but off its session lows after the Federal Reserve said the U.S. economic recovery remains on track and Chair Jerome <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">Powell</a> said the central bank was still a ways away from considering raising interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>路透纽约3月19日-标普500周三收盘变化不大，但脱离盘中低点，此前美联储表示美国经济复苏仍在正轨上，主席杰罗姆<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">鲍威尔</a>表示央行距离考虑加息还有一段路要走。</blockquote></p><p> Keeping the market in check, shares of tech giant <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a> Inc fell 1.2% after it forecast slowing revenue growth.</p><p><blockquote>控制市场，科技巨头的股票<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>Inc预测收入增长放缓，股价下跌1.2%。</blockquote></p><p> In a news conference following the release of a new policy statement from the Fed, Powell also said the U.S. job market still had “some ground to cover” before it would be time to pull back from the economic support the U.S. central bank put in place in the spring of 2020 to battle the coronavirus pandemic’s economic shocks.</p><p><blockquote>在美联储发布新政策声明后的新闻发布会上，鲍威尔还表示，在退出美联储提供的经济支持之前，美国就业市场仍有“一些地方需要覆盖”。2020年春季，以应对冠状病毒大流行的经济冲击。</blockquote></p><p> “It looks like probably the most positive thing for the market was that they are nowhere near increasing interest rates,” said Alan Lancz, president, Alan B. Lancz &amp; Associates Inc, an investment advisory firm based in Toledo, Ohio.</p><p><blockquote>总部位于俄亥俄州托莱多的投资咨询公司Alan B.Lancz&amp;Associates Inc总裁艾伦·兰茨(Alan Lancz)表示：“看起来对市场来说最积极的事情可能是他们远未加息。”</blockquote></p><p> Right after the Fed statement, the S&amp;P 500 index reversed slight declines though it still ended a hair lower on the day.</p><p><blockquote>美联储声明发布后，标普500指数扭转了小幅跌势，但当天收盘仍小幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">Investors</a> have been worried about how rising inflation and a spike in COVID-19 cases might impact the central bank’s plan to potentially start withdrawing its stimulus.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">投资者</a>一直担心通胀上升和COVID-19病例激增可能会影响央行可能开始撤回刺激措施的计划。</blockquote></p><p> The central bank also said that higher inflation remained the result of “transitory factors.” The Fed kept its overnight benchmark interest rate near zero and left unchanged its bond-buying program.</p><p><blockquote>央行还表示，通胀上升仍然是“暂时性因素”的结果。美联储将隔夜基准利率维持在零附近，并维持债券购买计划不变。</blockquote></p><p> The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a> ended higher and shares of Google parent <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a> Inc hit an all-time high as a surge in advertising spending helped it post record quarterly results. The stock ended up 3.2%.</p><p><blockquote>The<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">纳斯达克</a>谷歌母公司股价收高<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a>由于广告支出激增帮助其公布了创纪录的季度业绩，Inc创下历史新高。该股收盘上涨3.2%。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 127.59 points, or 0.36%, to 34,930.93, the S&amp;P 500 lost 0.82 point, or 0.02%, to 4,400.64 and the Nasdaq Composite added 102.01 points, or 0.7%, to 14,762.58.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数下跌127.59点，跌幅0.36%，至34,930.93点；标普500下跌0.82点，跌幅0.02%，至4,400.64点；纳斯达克综合指数上涨102.01点，跌幅0.7%，至14,762.58点。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s statement came at the conclusion of its latest two-day policy meeting.</p><p><blockquote>美联储的声明是在最近一次为期两天的政策会议结束时发表的。</blockquote></p><p> “They had a chance to signal they were going to become more hawkish and they chose not to take it. The most important thing is they are predictable and they are remaining predictable,” said Ellen Hazen, portfolio manager at F.L. Putnam Investment Management in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WEBK\">Wellesley</a>, Massachusetts.</p><p><blockquote>F.L.投资组合经理艾伦·哈森(Ellen Hazen)表示：“他们有机会发出信号，表明他们将变得更加鹰派，但他们选择不接受。最重要的是，他们是可预测的，而且仍然是可预测的。”普特南投资管理公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WEBK\">韦尔斯利</a>，马萨诸塞州。</blockquote></p><p> In other earnings news, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a> Corp ended down 0.1% even as a boom in cloud services helped it beat Wall Street expectations for revenue and earnings.</p><p><blockquote>在其他财报消息中，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>尽管云服务的繁荣帮助其收入和盈利超出了华尔街的预期，但该公司收盘下跌0.1%。</blockquote></p><p> Volume on U.S. exchanges was 9.86 billion shares, compared with a similar average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所的成交量为98.6亿股，而过去20个交易日的全交易日平均成交量相似。</blockquote></p><p> Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.85-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.61-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所上涨股与下跌股的比例为1.85比1；在纳斯达克，2.61比1的比率有利于上涨者。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 posted 42 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 44 new highs and 67 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下42个52周新高，无新低；纳斯达克综合指数录得44个新高和67个新低。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks/us-stocks-sp-500-ends-off-days-lows-powell-says-fed-still-a-ways-away-from-rate-hikes-idUSL1N2P435H\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","OEX":"标普100",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks/us-stocks-sp-500-ends-off-days-lows-powell-says-fed-still-a-ways-away-from-rate-hikes-idUSL1N2P435H","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127264445","content_text":"NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&P 500 ended little changed on Wednesday but off its session lows after the Federal Reserve said the U.S. economic recovery remains on track and Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank was still a ways away from considering raising interest rates.\nKeeping the market in check, shares of tech giant Apple Inc fell 1.2% after it forecast slowing revenue growth.\nIn a news conference following the release of a new policy statement from the Fed, Powell also said the U.S. job market still had “some ground to cover” before it would be time to pull back from the economic support the U.S. central bank put in place in the spring of 2020 to battle the coronavirus pandemic’s economic shocks.\n“It looks like probably the most positive thing for the market was that they are nowhere near increasing interest rates,” said Alan Lancz, president, Alan B. Lancz & Associates Inc, an investment advisory firm based in Toledo, Ohio.\nRight after the Fed statement, the S&P 500 index reversed slight declines though it still ended a hair lower on the day.\nInvestors have been worried about how rising inflation and a spike in COVID-19 cases might impact the central bank’s plan to potentially start withdrawing its stimulus.\nThe central bank also said that higher inflation remained the result of “transitory factors.” The Fed kept its overnight benchmark interest rate near zero and left unchanged its bond-buying program.\nThe Nasdaq ended higher and shares of Google parent Alphabet Inc hit an all-time high as a surge in advertising spending helped it post record quarterly results. The stock ended up 3.2%.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 127.59 points, or 0.36%, to 34,930.93, the S&P 500 lost 0.82 point, or 0.02%, to 4,400.64 and the Nasdaq Composite added 102.01 points, or 0.7%, to 14,762.58.\nThe Fed’s statement came at the conclusion of its latest two-day policy meeting.\n“They had a chance to signal they were going to become more hawkish and they chose not to take it. The most important thing is they are predictable and they are remaining predictable,” said Ellen Hazen, portfolio manager at F.L. Putnam Investment Management in Wellesley, Massachusetts.\nIn other earnings news, Microsoft Corp ended down 0.1% even as a boom in cloud services helped it beat Wall Street expectations for revenue and earnings.\nVolume on U.S. exchanges was 9.86 billion shares, compared with a similar average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.\nAdvancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.85-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.61-to-1 ratio favored advancers.\nThe S&P 500 posted 42 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 44 new highs and 67 new lows.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"SDS":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":657,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":845242732,"gmtCreate":1636345202493,"gmtModify":1636345202686,"author":{"id":"3581305621743723","authorId":"3581305621743723","name":"Erikku","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/294b2fdf23d2efd60a7c0694ef8e548c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581305621743723","idStr":"3581305621743723"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Thanks","listText":"Thanks","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/845242732","repostId":"2181972851","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3195,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":868682491,"gmtCreate":1632640162313,"gmtModify":1632647206313,"author":{"id":"3581305621743723","authorId":"3581305621743723","name":"Erikku","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/294b2fdf23d2efd60a7c0694ef8e548c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581305621743723","idStr":"3581305621743723"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Thanks for sharing&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks for sharing&nbsp;","text":"Thanks for sharing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/868682491","repostId":"2170614570","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2098,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":881037479,"gmtCreate":1631280973991,"gmtModify":1631889477310,"author":{"id":"3581305621743723","authorId":"3581305621743723","name":"Erikku","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/294b2fdf23d2efd60a7c0694ef8e548c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581305621743723","idStr":"3581305621743723"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/881037479","repostId":"2166237337","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2138,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":607086277,"gmtCreate":1639458071915,"gmtModify":1639458119135,"author":{"id":"3581305621743723","authorId":"3581305621743723","name":"Erikku","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/294b2fdf23d2efd60a7c0694ef8e548c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581305621743723","idStr":"3581305621743723"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks&nbsp;","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607086277","repostId":"1120286910","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120286910","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639453388,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1120286910?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-14 11:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"PayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks<blockquote>PayPal最近的价格下跌最终将发生在几乎所有被高估的科技股身上</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120286910","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.\nI wa","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>PayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.</li>  <li>I warned investors back in February of 2021 that PayPal was extremely overvalued and worth selling.</li>  <li>That warning could have been issued for dozens and dozens of overvalued technology stocks that still have over -50% downside from here within the next 3 years.</li>  <li>PayPal remains a great company that I would like to own, so I analyze the stock in order to establish I price at which I'd be willing to buy it.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/847095b0be294275f55f7e8f700d56b4\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1229\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>BsWei/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>PayPal股价较今年高点下跌超过-35%，而且该股仍然不便宜。</li><li>我早在2021年2月就警告投资者，PayPal的估值被严重高估，值得出售。</li><li>这一警告可能是针对数十只被高估的科技股发出的，这些股在未来3年内仍有超过-50%的下跌空间。</li><li>PayPal仍然是一家我想拥有的伟大公司，因此我分析该股票以确定我愿意购买它的价格。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>BsWei/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Back on February 6th, 2021, I made a video where I shared with investors why PayPal (PYPL) stock was overvalued enough to sell. I shared that video on my Seeking Alpha bloghere. Since that time, PayPal has performed poorly both on an absolute basis and relative to the S&amp;P 500 (SPY).</p><p><blockquote>早在2021年2月6日，我就制作了一段视频，与投资者分享了为什么PayPal(PYPL)股票被高估到足以出售。我在我的Seeking Alpha bloghere上分享了该视频。自那时以来，PayPal的绝对表现和相对于标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）的表现都很差。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8252b7218af36cce8b5a591f56abaecd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The stock price is down about -30% since I warned investors and down about -38% off its high price of the year.</p><p><blockquote>自从我向投资者发出警告以来，该股股价已下跌约-30%，较今年的高点下跌约-38%。</blockquote></p><p> The truth is that I could have issued the same warning about many other technology stocks that had become overvalued, but PayPal was one that I actually wanted to buy if the price ever fell to a reasonable level. It was a case where there was absolutely nothing wrong with the company. There was no bad story to tell. The price had simply gotten insanely overvalued. It didn't matter how good the story around PayPal was back in February. Numbers almost always trump narrative over the long-term. And the numbers back then didn't make sense.</p><p><blockquote>事实是，我本可以对许多其他被高估的科技股发出同样的警告，但如果价格跌至合理水平，我实际上想买入PayPal。这是一个公司绝对没有问题的案例。没有什么不好的故事可讲。这个价格被高估了。二月份围绕PayPal的故事有多好并不重要。从长远来看，数字几乎总是胜过叙事。当时的数字没有意义。</blockquote></p><p> This should be an important lesson for medium and long-term investors. If the numbers don't work, it doesn't matter what the story is.</p><p><blockquote>这应该是中长线投资者的重要一课。如果数字不起作用，故事是什么并不重要。</blockquote></p><p> The difficultly for a stock writer like myself is that investors<i>love</i>narratives and stories. It's not our fault. Our human brains are hardwired that way. Since I shared my bearish February PayPal video, out of 62 articles on Seeking Alpha covering PayPal, there hasn't been a single \"Bearish\" article written. The primary reason for that is because PayPal's narrative was so appealing that valuation numbers were either ignored, or the assumptions around the numbers were not realistic.</p><p><blockquote>对于像我这样的股票作家来说，困难的是投资者<i>爱</i>叙事和故事。这不是我们的错。我们人类的大脑天生就是这样。自从我分享了我看跌的2月份PayPal视频以来，Seeking Alpha上报道PayPal的62篇文章中，没有一篇“看跌”文章。主要原因是PayPal的叙述如此吸引人，以至于估值数字要么被忽视，要么围绕这些数字的假设不现实。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, I'm going to share my current PayPal valuation based on earnings and earnings growth projections. I'll also share what I consider to be a fair value range for PayPal stock, and the price I would be looking to buy with a margin of safety. This is the same basic process I used to determine that PayPal stock was overvalued back in February of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>在本文中，我将分享我目前基于盈利和盈利增长预测的PayPal估值。我还将分享我认为PayPal股票的公允价值范围，以及我希望在安全边际的情况下购买的价格。这与我在2021年2月用来确定PayPal股票被高估的基本过程相同。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>全周期盈利分析</b></blockquote></p><p> As part of the analysis, I calculate what I consider to be the two main drivers of future total returns: Market sentiment returns and business returns. I then combine those expected returns together in the form of a 10-year CAGR expectation and use that to value the stock.</p><p><blockquote>作为分析的一部分，我计算了我认为未来总回报的两个主要驱动因素：市场情绪回报和商业回报。然后，我将这些预期回报以10年复合年增长率预期的形式组合在一起，并用它来评估股票。</blockquote></p><p> Before I begin this analysis, I always check the business's long-term earnings patterns in order to ensure that the business is a proper fit for this sort of analysis. If the historical earnings 1) don't have a long enough history 2) are erratic in nature, or 3) are too cyclical, then I either avoid analyzing the stock altogether or I use a different type of analysis that is more appropriate.</p><p><blockquote>在我开始这种分析之前，我总是检查企业的长期盈利模式，以确保企业适合这种分析。如果历史收益1）没有足够长的历史2）本质上不稳定，或者3）周期性太强，那么我要么完全避免分析股票，要么使用更合适的不同类型的分析。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70078307e65a5a1d0e37f9e70b726b77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We can see that since 2015 PayPal's earnings per share have increased every single year. This is a clear secular growth pattern and it makes the stock very attractive as a long-term investment. Since 2015 there haven't been any negative earnings growth years so the stock is likely a good fit for the type of earnings analysis I'm going to perform. One important question to ask, though, is that while we did have a brief recession in 2020, it was a very unusual one. It's possible that PayPal's business could be more economically sensitive during a longer, more drawn-out recession. So, that is a risk. However, when I examined how eBay (EBAY) performed in the 2008/9 recession, its earnings growth was basically flat, and never went negative. If I had to make a guess, I think PayPal's earnings growth rate would probably decline during a \"normal\" recession, but still wouldn't be especially cyclical. For those reasons, I'm going to go ahead with my Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis even though we don't have hard historical data from \"normal\" recession for PayPal.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以看到，自2015年以来，PayPal的每股收益每年都在增长。这是一个明显的长期增长模式，它使该股票作为长期投资非常有吸引力。自2015年以来，没有出现过任何盈利负增长的年份，因此该股票可能非常适合我将要进行的盈利分析类型。不过，要问的一个重要问题是，虽然我们在2020年确实经历了短暂的衰退，但这是一次非常不寻常的衰退。在更长、更持久的经济衰退期间，PayPal的业务可能会对经济更加敏感。所以，这是一个风险。然而，当我考察eBay(EBAY)在2008/9年经济衰退中的表现时，其盈利增长基本持平，从未出现过负增长。如果让我猜的话，我认为PayPal的盈利增长率可能会在“正常”衰退期间下降，但仍然不会特别具有周期性。出于这些原因，尽管我们没有PayPal“正常”衰退的硬历史数据，但我仍将继续进行全周期盈利分析。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market Sentiment Return Expectations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场情绪回归预期</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In order to estimate what sort of returns we might expect over the next 10 years, let's begin by examining what return we could expect 10 years from now if the P/E multiple were to revert to its mean from the previous economic cycle. Since we have had a recent recession (albeit an unusual one) I'm starting this cycle in fiscal year 2015 and running it through 2021's estimates.</p><p><blockquote>为了估计未来10年我们可能预期的回报，让我们首先研究一下，如果市盈率倍数恢复到上一个经济周期的平均值，我们从现在起10年后可以预期的回报。由于我们最近经历了一次衰退（尽管是一次不寻常的衰退），我将在2015财年开始这个周期，并通过2021年的估计运行它。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e36d2c3455962a02d96b8c88c32eadce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> PayPal's average P/E from 2015 to the present has been a healthy 34.11 (the blue bar circled in gold on the FAST Graph). Using 2021's forward earnings estimates of $4.60 (also circled in gold), PayPal has a current P/E of 40.73. If that 40.73 P/E were to revert to the average P/E of 34.11 over the course of the next 10 years and everything else was held the same, PayPal's price would fall and it would produce a 10-Year CAGR of<b>-1.75%</b>. That's the annual return we can expect from sentiment mean reversion if it takes ten years to revert. If it takes less time to revert, the price could fall faster.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal从2015年至今的平均市盈率为34.11（快速图上用金色圈出的蓝色条）。使用2021年4.60美元的预期盈利预测（也用金色圈出），PayPal目前的市盈率为40.73。如果40.73市盈率在未来10年恢复到34.11的平均市盈率，而其他条件保持不变，PayPal的股价将会下跌，10年复合年增长率将为<b>-1.75%</b>如果情绪回归需要十年时间，这就是我们可以从情绪均值回归中预期的年回报率。如果恢复所需的时间更短，价格可能会下跌得更快。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Earnings Expectations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>业务盈利预期</b></blockquote></p><p> We previously examined what would happen if market sentiment reverted to the mean. This is entirely determined by the mood of the market and is quite often disconnected, or only loosely connected, to the performance of the actual business. In this section, we will examine the actual earnings of the business. The goal here is simple: We want to know how much money we would earn (expressed in the form of a CAGR %) over the course of 10 years if we bought the business at today's prices and kept all of the earnings for ourselves.</p><p><blockquote>我们之前研究了如果市场情绪恢复到均值会发生什么。这完全由市场情绪决定，并且通常与实际业务的表现脱节，或者只是松散地联系在一起。在本节中，我们将检查企业的实际收益。这里的目标很简单：我们想知道如果我们以今天的价格收购企业并将所有收益留给自己，我们在10年内会赚多少钱（以CAGR%的形式表示）。</blockquote></p><p> There are two main components of this: the first is the earnings yield and the second is the rate at which the earnings can be expected to grow. Let's start with the earnings yield (which is an inverted P/E ratio, so, the Earnings/Price ratio). The current earnings yield is about +2.46%. The way I like to think about this is, if I bought the company's whole business right now for $100, I would earn $2.46 per year on my investment if earnings remained the same for the next 10 years.</p><p><blockquote>这有两个主要组成部分：第一个是收益收益率，第二个是收益的预期增长率。让我们从收益率（这是一个倒置的市盈率，因此，市盈率）开始。目前的收益率约为+2.46%。我喜欢思考这个问题的方式是，如果我现在以100美元购买公司的整个业务，如果未来10年收益保持不变，我每年的投资将获得2.46美元。</blockquote></p><p> The next step is to estimate the company's earnings growth during this time period. I do that by figuring out at what rate earnings grew during the last cycle and applying that rate to the next 10 years. This involves calculating the EPS growth rate since 2015, taking into account each year's EPS growth or decline, and then backing out any share buybacks that occurred over that time period (because reducing shares will increase the EPS due to fewer shares).</p><p><blockquote>下一步是估计公司在这段时间内的盈利增长。我通过计算上一个周期的收益增长率并将该增长率应用于未来10年来做到这一点。这涉及计算自2015年以来的每股收益增长率，考虑每年的每股收益增长或下降，然后退出该时期发生的任何股票回购（因为减持股票会因股票减少而增加每股收益）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f31b7d8ed5f59c82c2531cc686324d1a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Due to the scale of the graph, the buybacks look much bigger than they actually are, and there isn't much to adjust here. Additionally, since PayPal has grown earnings every year there are no earnings growth declines to adjust for either. This makes estimating PayPal's earnings growth a relatively straightforward affair, and I estimate PayPal's earnings growth at about +23.65%.</p><p><blockquote>由于图表的规模，回购看起来比实际要大得多，这里没有太多调整。此外，由于PayPal的盈利每年都在增长，因此无需调整盈利增长下降。这使得估计PayPal的盈利增长变得相对简单，我估计PayPal的盈利增长约为+23.65%。</blockquote></p><p> Now, this is the point where my conservatism when it comes to asking myself \"What is a reasonable expectation, for valuation purposes, going forward 10 years?\" It is very, very difficult for businesses to grow earnings over 20% per year for a full decade (particularly if they have already been doing that the previous decade). For that reason, I cap all of my long-term forward earnings growth estimates when using them for valuation purposes at 20%. This is simply a way to help keep me from overpaying for a stock when their P/E multiple is likely to contract over time. So, for this valuation exercise, I am limiting my earnings growth assumption to 20%.</p><p><blockquote>现在，当我问自己“出于估值目的，未来10年的合理预期是什么？”对于企业来说，在整整十年的时间里，收入每年增长超过20%是非常非常困难的（特别是如果他们在过去十年里已经这样做了）。因此，在用于估值目的时，我将所有长期预期盈利增长预测限制在20%。当股票的市盈率可能会随着时间的推移而收缩时，这只是一种帮助我避免为股票支付过高价格的方法。因此，对于这次估值工作，我将盈利增长假设限制在20%。</blockquote></p><p> Next, I'll apply that growth rate to current earnings, looking forward 10 years in order to get a final 10-year CAGR estimate. The way I think about this is, if I bought PayPal's whole business for $100, it would pay me back $2.46 plus +20.00% growth the first year, and that amount would grow at +20.00% per year for 10 years after that. I want to know how much money I would have in total at the end of 10 years on my $100 investment, which I calculate to be about $176.50 (including the original $100). When I plug that growth into a CAGR calculator, that translates to a<b>+5.85%</b>10-year CAGR estimate for the expected business earnings returns.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我将将该增长率应用于当前收益，展望10年，以获得最终的10年复合年增长率估计。我的想法是，如果我以100美元收购PayPal的整个业务，它将在第一年偿还我2.46美元，外加+20.00%的增长，并且在那之后的10年里，这个数额将以每年+20.00%的速度增长。我想知道我的100美元投资在10年后总共会有多少钱，我计算出大约是176.50美元（包括最初的100美元）。当我将这种增长插入CAGR计算器时，就会转化为<b>+5.85%</b>预期业务盈利回报的10年复合年增长率估计。</blockquote></p><p> <b>10-Year, Full-Cycle CAGR Estimate</b></p><p><blockquote><b>10年全周期复合年增长率估计</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Potential future returns can come from two main places: market sentiment returns or business earnings returns. If we assume that market sentiment reverts to the mean from the last cycle over the next 10 years for PayPal, it will produce a -1.75% CAGR. If the earnings yield and growth are similar to the last cycle, the company should produce somewhere around a +5.85% 10-year CAGR. If we put the two together, we get an expected 10-year, full-cycle CAGR of<b>+4.10%</b>at today's price.</p><p><blockquote>潜在的未来回报可以来自两个主要地方：市场情绪回报或业务收益回报。如果我们假设PayPal未来10年的市场情绪恢复到上一个周期的平均值，则复合年增长率将为-1.75%。如果盈利收益率和增长与上一个周期相似，该公司的10年复合年增长率应该在+5.85%左右。如果我们将两者放在一起，我们会得到预期的10年全周期复合年增长率为<b>+4.10%</b>以今天的价格。</blockquote></p><p> My Buy/Sell/Hold range for this category of stocks is: above a 12% CAGR is a Buy, below a 4% expected CAGR is a Sell, and in between 4% and 12% is a Hold. This puts PayPal stock just barely into the \"Hold\" category at today's price level.</p><p><blockquote>我对此类股票的买入/卖出/持有范围是：复合年增长率高于12%为买入，预期复合年增长率低于4%为卖出，4%至12%之间为持有。这使得PayPal股票在今天的价格水平上勉强属于“持有”类别。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Additional Considerations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>其他注意事项</b></blockquote></p><p> I consider PayPal one of the highest quality growth stocks in the market right now, which is why I've been monitoring its valuation relatively closely. In this section I'm going to share my fair value range for PayPal along with the price I would be willing to buy the stock with a margin of safety based on earnings, and also the price I would consider buying using a more aggressive and less conservative valuation approach. So, I'm going to look at PayPal's valuation from a variety of different perspectives to give us a clearer view of what might be an appropriate price to pay for the stock.</p><p><blockquote>我认为PayPal是目前市场上质量最高的成长型股票之一，这就是为什么我一直相对密切地关注其估值。在本节中，我将分享我对PayPal的公允价值范围，以及我愿意在基于收益的安全边际下购买该股票的价格，以及我考虑使用更激进和不太保守的估值方法购买的价格。因此，我将从各种不同的角度来看PayPal的估值，让我们更清楚地了解购买该股票的合适价格。</blockquote></p><p> First, I'll start with my buy price and fair value range using the same assumptions and inputs I used in this article. If we use all of those same inputs my current fair value range for PayPal is about $126.50 to $164.00 per share. My current buy price that includes a margin of safety is $112.10. Investors who buy below that price have very good odds of great returns over the medium-term with the stock.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我将使用本文中使用的相同假设和输入从我的购买价格和公允价值范围开始。如果我们使用所有这些相同的输入，我目前对PayPal的公允价值范围约为每股126.50美元至164.00美元。我目前的买入价格（包括安全边际）是112.10美元。低于该价格买入的投资者在中期内很有可能获得丰厚的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Once we get into the new year and 2022, I'll start pulling forward PayPal's 2022 earnings for my estimates. Right now, analysts expect $5.25 per share from earnings in 2022. That will improve PayPal's valuation a lot if the rest of their metrics remain the same, and it would raise their fair value range up to $145.00 to $187.50 dollars per share with a margin of safety buy price at $128.00 per share. This, of course, assumes analysts keep their estimates for 2022 in place and don't lower them over the next couple of months. It also means, based on future earnings, that in a month or two if PayPal keeps trading near its current price, it is already in the top end of a \"fair value\" price range. This might be a further reason for current owners to keep holding.</p><p><blockquote>一旦我们进入新的一年和2022年，我将开始提前预测PayPal 2022年的盈利。目前，分析师预计2022年每股收益为5.25美元。如果PayPal的其他指标保持不变，这将大大提高其估值，并将其公允价值范围提高至每股145.00美元至187.50美元，安全买入价格为每股128.00美元。当然，这是假设分析师维持对2022年的预期不变，并且在未来几个月内不会降低预期。这也意味着，根据未来的收益，如果PayPal在一两个月内保持接近当前价格的交易，它已经处于“公允价值”价格范围的上限。这可能是当前所有者继续持有的另一个原因。</blockquote></p><p> The Full-Cycle Earnings analysis I used in this article is not the only type of analysis I use. For certain rare businesses with fast profit growth dynamics, I recently developed a new analysis to help identify fast-growing businesses that might never become cheap enough to buy based on earnings alone. The methods of this analysis are exclusive to my private service, The Cyclical Investor's Club, but since PayPal's profit growth is very strong, it actually qualifies for this type of analysis, too, and I thought I would at least share the sort of \"buy price\" that analysis produces because it's a little more aggressive than the earnings-based analysis.</p><p><blockquote>我在本文中使用的全周期收益分析并不是我使用的唯一分析类型。对于某些利润快速增长的罕见企业，我最近开发了一种新的分析方法，以帮助识别仅根据收益可能永远不会变得足够便宜的快速增长企业。这种分析的方法是我的私人服务机构周期性投资者俱乐部独有的，但由于PayPal的利润增长非常强劲，它实际上也有资格进行这种类型的分析，我想我至少会分享这种分析产生的“购买价格”，因为它比基于收益的分析更激进一些。</blockquote></p><p> When I examine PayPal using the profit growth analysis, it produces a buy price of $144.90. I find that interesting because if profits keep growing this quarter that price is likely to rise a little bit and put it pretty close to the middle of fair value using next year's earnings using my earnings-based method. This assumes that PayPal's metrics don't deteriorate between now and then, and there would be some technical requirements PayPal would have to meet as well, but I think the odds are good that by February of 2022 I could be a buyer of PayPal stock, approximately one year after I warned investors about its high valuation. It's going to be very interesting to see how it turns out.</p><p><blockquote>当我使用利润增长分析来检查PayPal时，它得出的买入价格为144.90美元。我觉得这很有趣，因为如果本季度利润继续增长，价格可能会上涨一点，并使用我的基于收益的方法，使用明年的收益，使其非常接近公允价值的中间值。这是假设PayPal的指标从现在到那时不会恶化，而且PayPal也必须满足一些技术要求，但我认为到2022年2月，我很有可能成为PayPal股票的买家，大约在我警告投资者其高估值一年后。看看结果会很有趣。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> I think PayPal's 2021 decline is an interesting and useful case study that goes beyond PayPal itself. The sort of decline we've seen in PayPal's stock price this year was entirely predictable and there are many other richly valued technology stocks that will experience a similar decline, likely in 2022 for most of them. For investors who are overweight these types of stocks, now is probably a time to consider diversifying in order to help keep the gains they have experienced the past couple of years. While there will be some overvalued stocks that simply stagnate for several years and go nowhere, and a rare few that manage to keep rising, the vast majority will experience declines like PayPal has experienced.</p><p><blockquote>我认为PayPal 2021年的衰落是一个有趣且有用的案例研究，超越了PayPal本身。我们今年看到的PayPal股价下跌是完全可以预见的，还有许多其他估值丰厚的科技股也将经历类似的下跌，其中大多数可能在2022年。对于跑赢大盘此类股票的投资者来说，现在可能是考虑多元化的时候了，以帮助保持过去几年的收益。虽然会有一些被高估的股票停滞不前几年，毫无进展，也有极少数股票设法继续上涨，但绝大多数股票将经历像PayPal那样的下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>PayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks<blockquote>PayPal最近的价格下跌最终将发生在几乎所有被高估的科技股身上</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks<blockquote>PayPal最近的价格下跌最终将发生在几乎所有被高估的科技股身上</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-14 11:43</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>PayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.</li>  <li>I warned investors back in February of 2021 that PayPal was extremely overvalued and worth selling.</li>  <li>That warning could have been issued for dozens and dozens of overvalued technology stocks that still have over -50% downside from here within the next 3 years.</li>  <li>PayPal remains a great company that I would like to own, so I analyze the stock in order to establish I price at which I'd be willing to buy it.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/847095b0be294275f55f7e8f700d56b4\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1229\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>BsWei/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>PayPal股价较今年高点下跌超过-35%，而且该股仍然不便宜。</li><li>我早在2021年2月就警告投资者，PayPal的估值被严重高估，值得出售。</li><li>这一警告可能是针对数十只被高估的科技股发出的，这些股在未来3年内仍有超过-50%的下跌空间。</li><li>PayPal仍然是一家我想拥有的伟大公司，因此我分析该股票以确定我愿意购买它的价格。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>BsWei/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Back on February 6th, 2021, I made a video where I shared with investors why PayPal (PYPL) stock was overvalued enough to sell. I shared that video on my Seeking Alpha bloghere. Since that time, PayPal has performed poorly both on an absolute basis and relative to the S&amp;P 500 (SPY).</p><p><blockquote>早在2021年2月6日，我就制作了一段视频，与投资者分享了为什么PayPal(PYPL)股票被高估到足以出售。我在我的Seeking Alpha bloghere上分享了该视频。自那时以来，PayPal的绝对表现和相对于标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）的表现都很差。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8252b7218af36cce8b5a591f56abaecd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The stock price is down about -30% since I warned investors and down about -38% off its high price of the year.</p><p><blockquote>自从我向投资者发出警告以来，该股股价已下跌约-30%，较今年的高点下跌约-38%。</blockquote></p><p> The truth is that I could have issued the same warning about many other technology stocks that had become overvalued, but PayPal was one that I actually wanted to buy if the price ever fell to a reasonable level. It was a case where there was absolutely nothing wrong with the company. There was no bad story to tell. The price had simply gotten insanely overvalued. It didn't matter how good the story around PayPal was back in February. Numbers almost always trump narrative over the long-term. And the numbers back then didn't make sense.</p><p><blockquote>事实是，我本可以对许多其他被高估的科技股发出同样的警告，但如果价格跌至合理水平，我实际上想买入PayPal。这是一个公司绝对没有问题的案例。没有什么不好的故事可讲。这个价格被高估了。二月份围绕PayPal的故事有多好并不重要。从长远来看，数字几乎总是胜过叙事。当时的数字没有意义。</blockquote></p><p> This should be an important lesson for medium and long-term investors. If the numbers don't work, it doesn't matter what the story is.</p><p><blockquote>这应该是中长线投资者的重要一课。如果数字不起作用，故事是什么并不重要。</blockquote></p><p> The difficultly for a stock writer like myself is that investors<i>love</i>narratives and stories. It's not our fault. Our human brains are hardwired that way. Since I shared my bearish February PayPal video, out of 62 articles on Seeking Alpha covering PayPal, there hasn't been a single \"Bearish\" article written. The primary reason for that is because PayPal's narrative was so appealing that valuation numbers were either ignored, or the assumptions around the numbers were not realistic.</p><p><blockquote>对于像我这样的股票作家来说，困难的是投资者<i>爱</i>叙事和故事。这不是我们的错。我们人类的大脑天生就是这样。自从我分享了我看跌的2月份PayPal视频以来，Seeking Alpha上报道PayPal的62篇文章中，没有一篇“看跌”文章。主要原因是PayPal的叙述如此吸引人，以至于估值数字要么被忽视，要么围绕这些数字的假设不现实。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, I'm going to share my current PayPal valuation based on earnings and earnings growth projections. I'll also share what I consider to be a fair value range for PayPal stock, and the price I would be looking to buy with a margin of safety. This is the same basic process I used to determine that PayPal stock was overvalued back in February of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>在本文中，我将分享我目前基于盈利和盈利增长预测的PayPal估值。我还将分享我认为PayPal股票的公允价值范围，以及我希望在安全边际的情况下购买的价格。这与我在2021年2月用来确定PayPal股票被高估的基本过程相同。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>全周期盈利分析</b></blockquote></p><p> As part of the analysis, I calculate what I consider to be the two main drivers of future total returns: Market sentiment returns and business returns. I then combine those expected returns together in the form of a 10-year CAGR expectation and use that to value the stock.</p><p><blockquote>作为分析的一部分，我计算了我认为未来总回报的两个主要驱动因素：市场情绪回报和商业回报。然后，我将这些预期回报以10年复合年增长率预期的形式组合在一起，并用它来评估股票。</blockquote></p><p> Before I begin this analysis, I always check the business's long-term earnings patterns in order to ensure that the business is a proper fit for this sort of analysis. If the historical earnings 1) don't have a long enough history 2) are erratic in nature, or 3) are too cyclical, then I either avoid analyzing the stock altogether or I use a different type of analysis that is more appropriate.</p><p><blockquote>在我开始这种分析之前，我总是检查企业的长期盈利模式，以确保企业适合这种分析。如果历史收益1）没有足够长的历史2）本质上不稳定，或者3）周期性太强，那么我要么完全避免分析股票，要么使用更合适的不同类型的分析。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70078307e65a5a1d0e37f9e70b726b77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We can see that since 2015 PayPal's earnings per share have increased every single year. This is a clear secular growth pattern and it makes the stock very attractive as a long-term investment. Since 2015 there haven't been any negative earnings growth years so the stock is likely a good fit for the type of earnings analysis I'm going to perform. One important question to ask, though, is that while we did have a brief recession in 2020, it was a very unusual one. It's possible that PayPal's business could be more economically sensitive during a longer, more drawn-out recession. So, that is a risk. However, when I examined how eBay (EBAY) performed in the 2008/9 recession, its earnings growth was basically flat, and never went negative. If I had to make a guess, I think PayPal's earnings growth rate would probably decline during a \"normal\" recession, but still wouldn't be especially cyclical. For those reasons, I'm going to go ahead with my Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis even though we don't have hard historical data from \"normal\" recession for PayPal.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以看到，自2015年以来，PayPal的每股收益每年都在增长。这是一个明显的长期增长模式，它使该股票作为长期投资非常有吸引力。自2015年以来，没有出现过任何盈利负增长的年份，因此该股票可能非常适合我将要进行的盈利分析类型。不过，要问的一个重要问题是，虽然我们在2020年确实经历了短暂的衰退，但这是一次非常不寻常的衰退。在更长、更持久的经济衰退期间，PayPal的业务可能会对经济更加敏感。所以，这是一个风险。然而，当我考察eBay(EBAY)在2008/9年经济衰退中的表现时，其盈利增长基本持平，从未出现过负增长。如果让我猜的话，我认为PayPal的盈利增长率可能会在“正常”衰退期间下降，但仍然不会特别具有周期性。出于这些原因，尽管我们没有PayPal“正常”衰退的硬历史数据，但我仍将继续进行全周期盈利分析。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market Sentiment Return Expectations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场情绪回归预期</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In order to estimate what sort of returns we might expect over the next 10 years, let's begin by examining what return we could expect 10 years from now if the P/E multiple were to revert to its mean from the previous economic cycle. Since we have had a recent recession (albeit an unusual one) I'm starting this cycle in fiscal year 2015 and running it through 2021's estimates.</p><p><blockquote>为了估计未来10年我们可能预期的回报，让我们首先研究一下，如果市盈率倍数恢复到上一个经济周期的平均值，我们从现在起10年后可以预期的回报。由于我们最近经历了一次衰退（尽管是一次不寻常的衰退），我将在2015财年开始这个周期，并通过2021年的估计运行它。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e36d2c3455962a02d96b8c88c32eadce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> PayPal's average P/E from 2015 to the present has been a healthy 34.11 (the blue bar circled in gold on the FAST Graph). Using 2021's forward earnings estimates of $4.60 (also circled in gold), PayPal has a current P/E of 40.73. If that 40.73 P/E were to revert to the average P/E of 34.11 over the course of the next 10 years and everything else was held the same, PayPal's price would fall and it would produce a 10-Year CAGR of<b>-1.75%</b>. That's the annual return we can expect from sentiment mean reversion if it takes ten years to revert. If it takes less time to revert, the price could fall faster.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal从2015年至今的平均市盈率为34.11（快速图上用金色圈出的蓝色条）。使用2021年4.60美元的预期盈利预测（也用金色圈出），PayPal目前的市盈率为40.73。如果40.73市盈率在未来10年恢复到34.11的平均市盈率，而其他条件保持不变，PayPal的股价将会下跌，10年复合年增长率将为<b>-1.75%</b>如果情绪回归需要十年时间，这就是我们可以从情绪均值回归中预期的年回报率。如果恢复所需的时间更短，价格可能会下跌得更快。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Earnings Expectations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>业务盈利预期</b></blockquote></p><p> We previously examined what would happen if market sentiment reverted to the mean. This is entirely determined by the mood of the market and is quite often disconnected, or only loosely connected, to the performance of the actual business. In this section, we will examine the actual earnings of the business. The goal here is simple: We want to know how much money we would earn (expressed in the form of a CAGR %) over the course of 10 years if we bought the business at today's prices and kept all of the earnings for ourselves.</p><p><blockquote>我们之前研究了如果市场情绪恢复到均值会发生什么。这完全由市场情绪决定，并且通常与实际业务的表现脱节，或者只是松散地联系在一起。在本节中，我们将检查企业的实际收益。这里的目标很简单：我们想知道如果我们以今天的价格收购企业并将所有收益留给自己，我们在10年内会赚多少钱（以CAGR%的形式表示）。</blockquote></p><p> There are two main components of this: the first is the earnings yield and the second is the rate at which the earnings can be expected to grow. Let's start with the earnings yield (which is an inverted P/E ratio, so, the Earnings/Price ratio). The current earnings yield is about +2.46%. The way I like to think about this is, if I bought the company's whole business right now for $100, I would earn $2.46 per year on my investment if earnings remained the same for the next 10 years.</p><p><blockquote>这有两个主要组成部分：第一个是收益收益率，第二个是收益的预期增长率。让我们从收益率（这是一个倒置的市盈率，因此，市盈率）开始。目前的收益率约为+2.46%。我喜欢思考这个问题的方式是，如果我现在以100美元购买公司的整个业务，如果未来10年收益保持不变，我每年的投资将获得2.46美元。</blockquote></p><p> The next step is to estimate the company's earnings growth during this time period. I do that by figuring out at what rate earnings grew during the last cycle and applying that rate to the next 10 years. This involves calculating the EPS growth rate since 2015, taking into account each year's EPS growth or decline, and then backing out any share buybacks that occurred over that time period (because reducing shares will increase the EPS due to fewer shares).</p><p><blockquote>下一步是估计公司在这段时间内的盈利增长。我通过计算上一个周期的收益增长率并将该增长率应用于未来10年来做到这一点。这涉及计算自2015年以来的每股收益增长率，考虑每年的每股收益增长或下降，然后退出该时期发生的任何股票回购（因为减持股票会因股票减少而增加每股收益）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f31b7d8ed5f59c82c2531cc686324d1a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Due to the scale of the graph, the buybacks look much bigger than they actually are, and there isn't much to adjust here. Additionally, since PayPal has grown earnings every year there are no earnings growth declines to adjust for either. This makes estimating PayPal's earnings growth a relatively straightforward affair, and I estimate PayPal's earnings growth at about +23.65%.</p><p><blockquote>由于图表的规模，回购看起来比实际要大得多，这里没有太多调整。此外，由于PayPal的盈利每年都在增长，因此无需调整盈利增长下降。这使得估计PayPal的盈利增长变得相对简单，我估计PayPal的盈利增长约为+23.65%。</blockquote></p><p> Now, this is the point where my conservatism when it comes to asking myself \"What is a reasonable expectation, for valuation purposes, going forward 10 years?\" It is very, very difficult for businesses to grow earnings over 20% per year for a full decade (particularly if they have already been doing that the previous decade). For that reason, I cap all of my long-term forward earnings growth estimates when using them for valuation purposes at 20%. This is simply a way to help keep me from overpaying for a stock when their P/E multiple is likely to contract over time. So, for this valuation exercise, I am limiting my earnings growth assumption to 20%.</p><p><blockquote>现在，当我问自己“出于估值目的，未来10年的合理预期是什么？”对于企业来说，在整整十年的时间里，收入每年增长超过20%是非常非常困难的（特别是如果他们在过去十年里已经这样做了）。因此，在用于估值目的时，我将所有长期预期盈利增长预测限制在20%。当股票的市盈率可能会随着时间的推移而收缩时，这只是一种帮助我避免为股票支付过高价格的方法。因此，对于这次估值工作，我将盈利增长假设限制在20%。</blockquote></p><p> Next, I'll apply that growth rate to current earnings, looking forward 10 years in order to get a final 10-year CAGR estimate. The way I think about this is, if I bought PayPal's whole business for $100, it would pay me back $2.46 plus +20.00% growth the first year, and that amount would grow at +20.00% per year for 10 years after that. I want to know how much money I would have in total at the end of 10 years on my $100 investment, which I calculate to be about $176.50 (including the original $100). When I plug that growth into a CAGR calculator, that translates to a<b>+5.85%</b>10-year CAGR estimate for the expected business earnings returns.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我将将该增长率应用于当前收益，展望10年，以获得最终的10年复合年增长率估计。我的想法是，如果我以100美元收购PayPal的整个业务，它将在第一年偿还我2.46美元，外加+20.00%的增长，并且在那之后的10年里，这个数额将以每年+20.00%的速度增长。我想知道我的100美元投资在10年后总共会有多少钱，我计算出大约是176.50美元（包括最初的100美元）。当我将这种增长插入CAGR计算器时，就会转化为<b>+5.85%</b>预期业务盈利回报的10年复合年增长率估计。</blockquote></p><p> <b>10-Year, Full-Cycle CAGR Estimate</b></p><p><blockquote><b>10年全周期复合年增长率估计</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Potential future returns can come from two main places: market sentiment returns or business earnings returns. If we assume that market sentiment reverts to the mean from the last cycle over the next 10 years for PayPal, it will produce a -1.75% CAGR. If the earnings yield and growth are similar to the last cycle, the company should produce somewhere around a +5.85% 10-year CAGR. If we put the two together, we get an expected 10-year, full-cycle CAGR of<b>+4.10%</b>at today's price.</p><p><blockquote>潜在的未来回报可以来自两个主要地方：市场情绪回报或业务收益回报。如果我们假设PayPal未来10年的市场情绪恢复到上一个周期的平均值，则复合年增长率将为-1.75%。如果盈利收益率和增长与上一个周期相似，该公司的10年复合年增长率应该在+5.85%左右。如果我们将两者放在一起，我们会得到预期的10年全周期复合年增长率为<b>+4.10%</b>以今天的价格。</blockquote></p><p> My Buy/Sell/Hold range for this category of stocks is: above a 12% CAGR is a Buy, below a 4% expected CAGR is a Sell, and in between 4% and 12% is a Hold. This puts PayPal stock just barely into the \"Hold\" category at today's price level.</p><p><blockquote>我对此类股票的买入/卖出/持有范围是：复合年增长率高于12%为买入，预期复合年增长率低于4%为卖出，4%至12%之间为持有。这使得PayPal股票在今天的价格水平上勉强属于“持有”类别。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Additional Considerations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>其他注意事项</b></blockquote></p><p> I consider PayPal one of the highest quality growth stocks in the market right now, which is why I've been monitoring its valuation relatively closely. In this section I'm going to share my fair value range for PayPal along with the price I would be willing to buy the stock with a margin of safety based on earnings, and also the price I would consider buying using a more aggressive and less conservative valuation approach. So, I'm going to look at PayPal's valuation from a variety of different perspectives to give us a clearer view of what might be an appropriate price to pay for the stock.</p><p><blockquote>我认为PayPal是目前市场上质量最高的成长型股票之一，这就是为什么我一直相对密切地关注其估值。在本节中，我将分享我对PayPal的公允价值范围，以及我愿意在基于收益的安全边际下购买该股票的价格，以及我考虑使用更激进和不太保守的估值方法购买的价格。因此，我将从各种不同的角度来看PayPal的估值，让我们更清楚地了解购买该股票的合适价格。</blockquote></p><p> First, I'll start with my buy price and fair value range using the same assumptions and inputs I used in this article. If we use all of those same inputs my current fair value range for PayPal is about $126.50 to $164.00 per share. My current buy price that includes a margin of safety is $112.10. Investors who buy below that price have very good odds of great returns over the medium-term with the stock.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我将使用本文中使用的相同假设和输入从我的购买价格和公允价值范围开始。如果我们使用所有这些相同的输入，我目前对PayPal的公允价值范围约为每股126.50美元至164.00美元。我目前的买入价格（包括安全边际）是112.10美元。低于该价格买入的投资者在中期内很有可能获得丰厚的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Once we get into the new year and 2022, I'll start pulling forward PayPal's 2022 earnings for my estimates. Right now, analysts expect $5.25 per share from earnings in 2022. That will improve PayPal's valuation a lot if the rest of their metrics remain the same, and it would raise their fair value range up to $145.00 to $187.50 dollars per share with a margin of safety buy price at $128.00 per share. This, of course, assumes analysts keep their estimates for 2022 in place and don't lower them over the next couple of months. It also means, based on future earnings, that in a month or two if PayPal keeps trading near its current price, it is already in the top end of a \"fair value\" price range. This might be a further reason for current owners to keep holding.</p><p><blockquote>一旦我们进入新的一年和2022年，我将开始提前预测PayPal 2022年的盈利。目前，分析师预计2022年每股收益为5.25美元。如果PayPal的其他指标保持不变，这将大大提高其估值，并将其公允价值范围提高至每股145.00美元至187.50美元，安全买入价格为每股128.00美元。当然，这是假设分析师维持对2022年的预期不变，并且在未来几个月内不会降低预期。这也意味着，根据未来的收益，如果PayPal在一两个月内保持接近当前价格的交易，它已经处于“公允价值”价格范围的上限。这可能是当前所有者继续持有的另一个原因。</blockquote></p><p> The Full-Cycle Earnings analysis I used in this article is not the only type of analysis I use. For certain rare businesses with fast profit growth dynamics, I recently developed a new analysis to help identify fast-growing businesses that might never become cheap enough to buy based on earnings alone. The methods of this analysis are exclusive to my private service, The Cyclical Investor's Club, but since PayPal's profit growth is very strong, it actually qualifies for this type of analysis, too, and I thought I would at least share the sort of \"buy price\" that analysis produces because it's a little more aggressive than the earnings-based analysis.</p><p><blockquote>我在本文中使用的全周期收益分析并不是我使用的唯一分析类型。对于某些利润快速增长的罕见企业，我最近开发了一种新的分析方法，以帮助识别仅根据收益可能永远不会变得足够便宜的快速增长企业。这种分析的方法是我的私人服务机构周期性投资者俱乐部独有的，但由于PayPal的利润增长非常强劲，它实际上也有资格进行这种类型的分析，我想我至少会分享这种分析产生的“购买价格”，因为它比基于收益的分析更激进一些。</blockquote></p><p> When I examine PayPal using the profit growth analysis, it produces a buy price of $144.90. I find that interesting because if profits keep growing this quarter that price is likely to rise a little bit and put it pretty close to the middle of fair value using next year's earnings using my earnings-based method. This assumes that PayPal's metrics don't deteriorate between now and then, and there would be some technical requirements PayPal would have to meet as well, but I think the odds are good that by February of 2022 I could be a buyer of PayPal stock, approximately one year after I warned investors about its high valuation. It's going to be very interesting to see how it turns out.</p><p><blockquote>当我使用利润增长分析来检查PayPal时，它得出的买入价格为144.90美元。我觉得这很有趣，因为如果本季度利润继续增长，价格可能会上涨一点，并使用我的基于收益的方法，使用明年的收益，使其非常接近公允价值的中间值。这是假设PayPal的指标从现在到那时不会恶化，而且PayPal也必须满足一些技术要求，但我认为到2022年2月，我很有可能成为PayPal股票的买家，大约在我警告投资者其高估值一年后。看看结果会很有趣。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> I think PayPal's 2021 decline is an interesting and useful case study that goes beyond PayPal itself. The sort of decline we've seen in PayPal's stock price this year was entirely predictable and there are many other richly valued technology stocks that will experience a similar decline, likely in 2022 for most of them. For investors who are overweight these types of stocks, now is probably a time to consider diversifying in order to help keep the gains they have experienced the past couple of years. While there will be some overvalued stocks that simply stagnate for several years and go nowhere, and a rare few that manage to keep rising, the vast majority will experience declines like PayPal has experienced.</p><p><blockquote>我认为PayPal 2021年的衰落是一个有趣且有用的案例研究，超越了PayPal本身。我们今年看到的PayPal股价下跌是完全可以预见的，还有许多其他估值丰厚的科技股也将经历类似的下跌，其中大多数可能在2022年。对于跑赢大盘此类股票的投资者来说，现在可能是考虑多元化的时候了，以帮助保持过去几年的收益。虽然会有一些被高估的股票停滞不前几年，毫无进展，也有极少数股票设法继续上涨，但绝大多数股票将经历像PayPal那样的下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474960-paypal-share-price-decline-overvalued-technology-stocks\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PYPL":"PayPal"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474960-paypal-share-price-decline-overvalued-technology-stocks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120286910","content_text":"Summary\n\nPayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.\nI warned investors back in February of 2021 that PayPal was extremely overvalued and worth selling.\nThat warning could have been issued for dozens and dozens of overvalued technology stocks that still have over -50% downside from here within the next 3 years.\nPayPal remains a great company that I would like to own, so I analyze the stock in order to establish I price at which I'd be willing to buy it.\n\nBsWei/iStock via Getty Images\nIntroduction\nBack on February 6th, 2021, I made a video where I shared with investors why PayPal (PYPL) stock was overvalued enough to sell. I shared that video on my Seeking Alpha bloghere. Since that time, PayPal has performed poorly both on an absolute basis and relative to the S&P 500 (SPY).\nData by YCharts\nThe stock price is down about -30% since I warned investors and down about -38% off its high price of the year.\nThe truth is that I could have issued the same warning about many other technology stocks that had become overvalued, but PayPal was one that I actually wanted to buy if the price ever fell to a reasonable level. It was a case where there was absolutely nothing wrong with the company. There was no bad story to tell. The price had simply gotten insanely overvalued. It didn't matter how good the story around PayPal was back in February. Numbers almost always trump narrative over the long-term. And the numbers back then didn't make sense.\nThis should be an important lesson for medium and long-term investors. If the numbers don't work, it doesn't matter what the story is.\nThe difficultly for a stock writer like myself is that investorslovenarratives and stories. It's not our fault. Our human brains are hardwired that way. Since I shared my bearish February PayPal video, out of 62 articles on Seeking Alpha covering PayPal, there hasn't been a single \"Bearish\" article written. The primary reason for that is because PayPal's narrative was so appealing that valuation numbers were either ignored, or the assumptions around the numbers were not realistic.\nIn this article, I'm going to share my current PayPal valuation based on earnings and earnings growth projections. I'll also share what I consider to be a fair value range for PayPal stock, and the price I would be looking to buy with a margin of safety. This is the same basic process I used to determine that PayPal stock was overvalued back in February of 2021.\nFull-Cycle Earnings Analysis\nAs part of the analysis, I calculate what I consider to be the two main drivers of future total returns: Market sentiment returns and business returns. I then combine those expected returns together in the form of a 10-year CAGR expectation and use that to value the stock.\nBefore I begin this analysis, I always check the business's long-term earnings patterns in order to ensure that the business is a proper fit for this sort of analysis. If the historical earnings 1) don't have a long enough history 2) are erratic in nature, or 3) are too cyclical, then I either avoid analyzing the stock altogether or I use a different type of analysis that is more appropriate.\n\nWe can see that since 2015 PayPal's earnings per share have increased every single year. This is a clear secular growth pattern and it makes the stock very attractive as a long-term investment. Since 2015 there haven't been any negative earnings growth years so the stock is likely a good fit for the type of earnings analysis I'm going to perform. One important question to ask, though, is that while we did have a brief recession in 2020, it was a very unusual one. It's possible that PayPal's business could be more economically sensitive during a longer, more drawn-out recession. So, that is a risk. However, when I examined how eBay (EBAY) performed in the 2008/9 recession, its earnings growth was basically flat, and never went negative. If I had to make a guess, I think PayPal's earnings growth rate would probably decline during a \"normal\" recession, but still wouldn't be especially cyclical. For those reasons, I'm going to go ahead with my Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis even though we don't have hard historical data from \"normal\" recession for PayPal.\nMarket Sentiment Return Expectations\nIn order to estimate what sort of returns we might expect over the next 10 years, let's begin by examining what return we could expect 10 years from now if the P/E multiple were to revert to its mean from the previous economic cycle. Since we have had a recent recession (albeit an unusual one) I'm starting this cycle in fiscal year 2015 and running it through 2021's estimates.\n\nPayPal's average P/E from 2015 to the present has been a healthy 34.11 (the blue bar circled in gold on the FAST Graph). Using 2021's forward earnings estimates of $4.60 (also circled in gold), PayPal has a current P/E of 40.73. If that 40.73 P/E were to revert to the average P/E of 34.11 over the course of the next 10 years and everything else was held the same, PayPal's price would fall and it would produce a 10-Year CAGR of-1.75%. That's the annual return we can expect from sentiment mean reversion if it takes ten years to revert. If it takes less time to revert, the price could fall faster.\nBusiness Earnings Expectations\nWe previously examined what would happen if market sentiment reverted to the mean. This is entirely determined by the mood of the market and is quite often disconnected, or only loosely connected, to the performance of the actual business. In this section, we will examine the actual earnings of the business. The goal here is simple: We want to know how much money we would earn (expressed in the form of a CAGR %) over the course of 10 years if we bought the business at today's prices and kept all of the earnings for ourselves.\nThere are two main components of this: the first is the earnings yield and the second is the rate at which the earnings can be expected to grow. Let's start with the earnings yield (which is an inverted P/E ratio, so, the Earnings/Price ratio). The current earnings yield is about +2.46%. The way I like to think about this is, if I bought the company's whole business right now for $100, I would earn $2.46 per year on my investment if earnings remained the same for the next 10 years.\nThe next step is to estimate the company's earnings growth during this time period. I do that by figuring out at what rate earnings grew during the last cycle and applying that rate to the next 10 years. This involves calculating the EPS growth rate since 2015, taking into account each year's EPS growth or decline, and then backing out any share buybacks that occurred over that time period (because reducing shares will increase the EPS due to fewer shares).\nData by YCharts\nDue to the scale of the graph, the buybacks look much bigger than they actually are, and there isn't much to adjust here. Additionally, since PayPal has grown earnings every year there are no earnings growth declines to adjust for either. This makes estimating PayPal's earnings growth a relatively straightforward affair, and I estimate PayPal's earnings growth at about +23.65%.\nNow, this is the point where my conservatism when it comes to asking myself \"What is a reasonable expectation, for valuation purposes, going forward 10 years?\" It is very, very difficult for businesses to grow earnings over 20% per year for a full decade (particularly if they have already been doing that the previous decade). For that reason, I cap all of my long-term forward earnings growth estimates when using them for valuation purposes at 20%. This is simply a way to help keep me from overpaying for a stock when their P/E multiple is likely to contract over time. So, for this valuation exercise, I am limiting my earnings growth assumption to 20%.\nNext, I'll apply that growth rate to current earnings, looking forward 10 years in order to get a final 10-year CAGR estimate. The way I think about this is, if I bought PayPal's whole business for $100, it would pay me back $2.46 plus +20.00% growth the first year, and that amount would grow at +20.00% per year for 10 years after that. I want to know how much money I would have in total at the end of 10 years on my $100 investment, which I calculate to be about $176.50 (including the original $100). When I plug that growth into a CAGR calculator, that translates to a+5.85%10-year CAGR estimate for the expected business earnings returns.\n10-Year, Full-Cycle CAGR Estimate\nPotential future returns can come from two main places: market sentiment returns or business earnings returns. If we assume that market sentiment reverts to the mean from the last cycle over the next 10 years for PayPal, it will produce a -1.75% CAGR. If the earnings yield and growth are similar to the last cycle, the company should produce somewhere around a +5.85% 10-year CAGR. If we put the two together, we get an expected 10-year, full-cycle CAGR of+4.10%at today's price.\nMy Buy/Sell/Hold range for this category of stocks is: above a 12% CAGR is a Buy, below a 4% expected CAGR is a Sell, and in between 4% and 12% is a Hold. This puts PayPal stock just barely into the \"Hold\" category at today's price level.\nAdditional Considerations\nI consider PayPal one of the highest quality growth stocks in the market right now, which is why I've been monitoring its valuation relatively closely. In this section I'm going to share my fair value range for PayPal along with the price I would be willing to buy the stock with a margin of safety based on earnings, and also the price I would consider buying using a more aggressive and less conservative valuation approach. So, I'm going to look at PayPal's valuation from a variety of different perspectives to give us a clearer view of what might be an appropriate price to pay for the stock.\nFirst, I'll start with my buy price and fair value range using the same assumptions and inputs I used in this article. If we use all of those same inputs my current fair value range for PayPal is about $126.50 to $164.00 per share. My current buy price that includes a margin of safety is $112.10. Investors who buy below that price have very good odds of great returns over the medium-term with the stock.\nOnce we get into the new year and 2022, I'll start pulling forward PayPal's 2022 earnings for my estimates. Right now, analysts expect $5.25 per share from earnings in 2022. That will improve PayPal's valuation a lot if the rest of their metrics remain the same, and it would raise their fair value range up to $145.00 to $187.50 dollars per share with a margin of safety buy price at $128.00 per share. This, of course, assumes analysts keep their estimates for 2022 in place and don't lower them over the next couple of months. It also means, based on future earnings, that in a month or two if PayPal keeps trading near its current price, it is already in the top end of a \"fair value\" price range. This might be a further reason for current owners to keep holding.\nThe Full-Cycle Earnings analysis I used in this article is not the only type of analysis I use. For certain rare businesses with fast profit growth dynamics, I recently developed a new analysis to help identify fast-growing businesses that might never become cheap enough to buy based on earnings alone. The methods of this analysis are exclusive to my private service, The Cyclical Investor's Club, but since PayPal's profit growth is very strong, it actually qualifies for this type of analysis, too, and I thought I would at least share the sort of \"buy price\" that analysis produces because it's a little more aggressive than the earnings-based analysis.\nWhen I examine PayPal using the profit growth analysis, it produces a buy price of $144.90. I find that interesting because if profits keep growing this quarter that price is likely to rise a little bit and put it pretty close to the middle of fair value using next year's earnings using my earnings-based method. This assumes that PayPal's metrics don't deteriorate between now and then, and there would be some technical requirements PayPal would have to meet as well, but I think the odds are good that by February of 2022 I could be a buyer of PayPal stock, approximately one year after I warned investors about its high valuation. It's going to be very interesting to see how it turns out.\nConclusion\nI think PayPal's 2021 decline is an interesting and useful case study that goes beyond PayPal itself. The sort of decline we've seen in PayPal's stock price this year was entirely predictable and there are many other richly valued technology stocks that will experience a similar decline, likely in 2022 for most of them. For investors who are overweight these types of stocks, now is probably a time to consider diversifying in order to help keep the gains they have experienced the past couple of years. While there will be some overvalued stocks that simply stagnate for several years and go nowhere, and a rare few that manage to keep rising, the vast majority will experience declines like PayPal has experienced.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PYPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2947,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":881034152,"gmtCreate":1631280925276,"gmtModify":1631889477313,"author":{"id":"3581305621743723","authorId":"3581305621743723","name":"Erikku","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/294b2fdf23d2efd60a7c0694ef8e548c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581305621743723","idStr":"3581305621743723"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Thx","listText":"Thx","text":"Thx","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/881034152","repostId":"2166509373","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1823,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":608065585,"gmtCreate":1638583052748,"gmtModify":1638583052867,"author":{"id":"3581305621743723","authorId":"3581305621743723","name":"Erikku","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/294b2fdf23d2efd60a7c0694ef8e548c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581305621743723","idStr":"3581305621743723"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Thanks","listText":"Thanks","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/608065585","repostId":"2188853578","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3131,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":883230255,"gmtCreate":1631242013777,"gmtModify":1631889477315,"author":{"id":"3581305621743723","authorId":"3581305621743723","name":"Erikku","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/294b2fdf23d2efd60a7c0694ef8e548c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581305621743723","idStr":"3581305621743723"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Oh no","listText":"Oh no","text":"Oh no","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/883230255","repostId":"2166426123","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":415,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":811230982,"gmtCreate":1630325195546,"gmtModify":1704958431094,"author":{"id":"3581305621743723","authorId":"3581305621743723","name":"Erikku","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/294b2fdf23d2efd60a7c0694ef8e548c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581305621743723","idStr":"3581305621743723"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/811230982","repostId":"2163776380","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":642,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":691479260,"gmtCreate":1640234034161,"gmtModify":1640234034283,"author":{"id":"3581305621743723","authorId":"3581305621743723","name":"Erikku","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/294b2fdf23d2efd60a7c0694ef8e548c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581305621743723","idStr":"3581305621743723"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks&nbsp;","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691479260","repostId":"1164467804","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1164467804","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640230809,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1164467804?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-23 11:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Are there any bubbles in Apple stock?<blockquote>苹果股票有泡沫吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1164467804","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Apple stock has risen 34% this year, beating the NASDAQ 100 by a wide margin.This has led some to say that the stock is in a bubble, as its price is rising rapidly.However, Apple's stock price gains are about in line with revenue growth, and actually slower than the most recent quarter's EPS growth.In this article, I will develop a bullish thesis on Apple, arguing that it has a wide moat that will power future growth and profitability.Apple Inc. stock has delivered a solid performance in 2021. U","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple stock has risen 34% this year, beating the NASDAQ 100 by a wide margin.</li>  <li>This has led some to say that the stock is in a bubble, as its price is rising rapidly.</li>  <li>However, Apple's stock price gains are about in line with revenue growth, and actually slower than the most recent quarter's EPS growth.</li>  <li>In this article, I will develop a bullish thesis on Apple, arguing that it has a wide moat that will power future growth and profitability.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e9d29c6db997dd98e087415e7e2acfe\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1036\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果股价今年已上涨34%，大幅跑赢纳斯达克100指数。</li><li>这导致一些人说该股存在泡沫，因为其价格正在迅速上涨。</li><li>然而，苹果的股价涨幅与收入增长大致一致，实际上慢于最近一个季度的每股收益增长。</li><li>在本文中，我将对苹果提出看涨论点，认为它拥有宽阔的护城河，将推动未来的增长和盈利能力。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>贾斯汀·沙利文/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple Inc.</b>(AAPL) stock has delivered a solid performance in 2021. Up 35% for the year, it has solidly outperformed both the NASDAQ 100 and the S&amp;P 500. The latest in a long streak of winning years for the company, Apple’s 2021 shows that a stock is never too big to beat the market.</p><p><blockquote><b>苹果公司。</b>(AAPL)股票在2021年表现稳健。该指数今年上涨了35%，表现强劲，优于纳斯达克100指数和标普500。苹果的2021年业绩是该公司长期获胜的最新一年，它表明股票永远不会太大而无法击败市场。</blockquote></p><p> With that said, there’s no shortage of people who think Apple’s winning run is due for a correction. In recent weeks, we’ve seen a deluge of articles claiming that AAPL is overvalued, with titles like:</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，仍有不少人认为苹果的胜利应该得到修正。最近几周，我们看到大量文章声称AAPL被高估，标题如下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>“Apple Stock is Now a Bubble.”</i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>“苹果股票现在是泡沫。”</i></li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><i>“Why Apple Stock May Be a Bubble That’s Ready to Burst.”</i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>“为什么苹果股票可能是一个即将破裂的泡沫。”</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><i>“Sell AAPL? Why This Expert Sees Apple Stock Dipping 12%”</i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>“出售AAPL？为什么这位专家认为苹果股价下跌12%”</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Not all of these articles have been unambiguously bearish. A few mention positives along with negatives. But generally speaking, the sentiment that Apple is a bubble, or at least overvalued, is becoming common. If you look at&nbsp;TipRanks’ sentiment chart, it shows decisively negative sentiment toward Apple stock.</p><p><blockquote>并非所有这些文章都明确悲观。一些人提到了积极的一面和消极的一面。但总体而言，认为苹果是泡沫，或者至少被高估的情绪正在变得普遍。如果你看看TipRanks的情绪图表，就会发现对苹果股票的情绪明显负面。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce8357bc3eaf626336dbf12b2ff1f410\" tg-width=\"485\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: TipRanks’ sentiment chart</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TipRanks情绪图</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The bearishness of investor sentiment toward Apple becomes clear when we compare it to the sentiment toward&nbsp;<b>Meta Platforms</b>(FB). Meta, a company that is being sued for antitrust violations and getting attacked in the press daily, has a nearly perfect sentiment score. So there is no special tech curse that guarantees negative sentiment toward individual stocks in the sector. Apple’s sentiment problem is indeed its own problem.</p><p><blockquote>当我们将投资者对苹果的悲观情绪与对<b>元平台</b>（FB）。Meta是一家因违反反垄断法而被起诉并每天受到媒体攻击的公司，其情绪得分几乎完美。因此，没有什么特殊的科技诅咒可以保证对该行业个股的负面情绪。苹果的情绪问题确实是自己的问题。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68bc8cf3f8fc200c2b7a9c85e69cc9f2\" tg-width=\"488\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Which begs the question:</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：</blockquote></p><p> <i>Why?</i></p><p><blockquote><i>为什么？</i></blockquote></p><p> Apple is a wide-moat stock, one of the few tech companies that controls both hardware and software for most of its users. Many companies have attempted to copy Apple’s strategy of maximizing revenue by integrating hardware and apps, but few have succeeded at it. If you want the IOS or Mac OS experience, you need an iPhone or Mac. And billions of people want those experiences enough to pay top dollar for Apple’s products. Few other tech companies have that advantage –&nbsp;<b>Nintendo</b>(OTCPK:NTDOY) being one exception, if you count gaming as tech.</p><p><blockquote>苹果是一只拥有宽护城河的股票，是少数几家同时控制大多数用户硬件和软件的科技公司之一。许多公司都试图复制苹果通过整合硬件和应用程序来实现收入最大化的策略，但很少有人成功。如果你想要IOS或Mac OS体验，你需要一部iPhone或Mac。数十亿人想要这些体验，足以支付高价购买苹果的产品。很少有其他科技公司拥有这样的优势——<b>任天堂</b>(OTCPK：NTDOY)如果您将游戏视为技术，则是一个例外。</blockquote></p><p> This makes Apple arguably a&nbsp;wide-moat stock. You need Apple hardware to run Apple software, and people like Apple software. This gives Apple a “monopoly” on a certain collection of software experiences. It does not have a monopoly on any particular device category, but it’s the only company that can provide the integrated&nbsp;Apple ecosystem.</p><p><blockquote>这使得苹果可以说是一只拥有宽阔护城河的股票。你需要苹果硬件来运行苹果软件，人们喜欢苹果软件。这使得苹果“垄断”了某一套软件体验。它并不垄断任何特定的设备类别，但它是唯一一家能够提供集成苹果生态系统的公司。</blockquote></p><p> This advantage has paid dividends to Apple shareholders – both figuratively and literally. Apple is the world’s biggest company by market cap and the&nbsp;fourth-biggest by revenue. Its revenue growth rate has slowed in recent years, but certain segments (such as watches and services) are growing faster than ever. It appears, then, that Apple still has the potential for significant profitability and growth. Accordingly, I’ll develop a bullish thesis on Apple in this article, arguing that its solid economic moat provides potential for its stock to appreciate in the future.</p><p><blockquote>这一优势为苹果股东带来了红利——无论是象征性的还是字面上的。按市值计算，苹果是全球最大的公司，按收入计算，它是全球第四大公司。近年来，其收入增长率有所放缓，但某些细分市场（如手表和服务）的增长速度比以往任何时候都快。因此，苹果似乎仍然具有显着盈利和增长的潜力。因此，我将在本文中对苹果提出看涨论点，认为其坚实的经济护城河为其股票未来升值提供了潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Competitive Landscape</b></p><p><blockquote><b>竞争格局</b></blockquote></p><p> One of the most important things to understand about Apple is its competitive position. The company operates in such a wide variety of different markets that it’s hard to pin down its business beyond simply “tech.” Technically, the company’s SIC Code (industry classification) is 7372, denoting “prepackaged software.” However, this doesn’t capture the full extent of Apple’s business activities, as it’s also involved in hardware, semiconductors,payments&nbsp;and entertainment.</p><p><blockquote>了解苹果最重要的一点是它的竞争地位。该公司在如此广泛的不同市场开展业务，以至于很难确定其业务不仅仅是“技术”。从技术上讲，该公司的SIC代码（行业分类）是7372，表示“预打包软件”。然而，这并没有涵盖苹果业务活动的全部范围，因为它还涉及硬件、半导体、支付和娱乐。</blockquote></p><p> Some of Apple’s most noteworthy competitors include:</p><p><blockquote>苹果最值得注意的一些竞争对手包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Samsung</b>(OTC:SSNLF) - smartphones.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>三星</b>（场外交易代码：SSNLF）-智能手机。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Huawei</b>- smartphones.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>华为</b>-智能手机。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Alphabet</b>(GOOG) - smartphones, laptops, and software.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>Alphabet</b>(GOOG)-智能手机、笔记本电脑和软件。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Microsoft</b>(MSFT) - laptops.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>微软</b>（MSFT）-笔记本电脑。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Dell</b>(NYSE:DELL)- laptops.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>戴尔</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：戴尔）-笔记本电脑。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Adobe</b>(ADBE) - creative software.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>土坯</b>（ADBE）-创意软件。</li></blockquote></p><p></p><p></li>  <li>And many more.</p><p><blockquote><li>还有更多。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> A comprehensive list of Apple’s competitors would be impossible to come up with, because the company operates in so many different verticals. In addition to all the names above, Apple is arguably in competition with the big semi companies, as it sells phones and laptops with Apple chips. Apple is one of the most comprehensive tech companies around, with a massive lineup of hardware, software and services, putting it in tacit competition with dozens of companies.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的竞争对手的全面名单是不可能的，因为该公司在许多不同的垂直领域开展业务。除了上述所有名称之外，苹果可以说还在与大型半导体公司竞争，因为它销售采用苹果芯片的手机和笔记本电脑。苹果是最全面的科技公司之一，拥有庞大的硬件、软件和服务阵容，使其与数十家公司展开默契竞争。</blockquote></p><p> How is Apple doing in the industries it competes in? According to&nbsp;Counterpoint Research&nbsp;and Statista, Apple’s market shares include:</p><p><blockquote>苹果在其竞争的行业中表现如何？根据Counterpoint Research和Statista的数据，苹果的市场份额包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Smartphones: 47% in the US and 14% globally.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>智能手机：美国占47%，全球占14%。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Laptops: 15% in the US and 7.6% globally.</p><p><blockquote><li>笔记本电脑：美国15%，全球7.6%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Smartwatches: over 50% globally.</p><p><blockquote><li>智能手表：全球超过50%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Tablets: 35% globally.</p><p><blockquote><li>平板电脑：全球35%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> On the whole, Apple is in first or second place in most of its markets. It’s behind Samsung on smartphone sales but it leads in watches and tablets. This is a pretty good market position. And it could grow over time. Some of Apple’s product categories are still fairly new. The company only just recently broke into smart watches and&nbsp;sales in the category are growing at 50%. Apple has taken heat lately for its slowing growth, but certain products within the company’s lineup are growing faster than ever. This provides potential for strong growth well into the future.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，苹果在其大部分市场都处于第一或第二的位置。它在智能手机销量方面落后于三星，但在手表和平板电脑方面领先。这是一个相当不错的市场地位。它可能会随着时间的推移而增长。苹果的一些产品类别仍然相当新。该公司最近才涉足智能手表领域，该类别的销售额正以50%的速度增长。苹果最近因增长放缓而受到批评，但该公司产品线中的某些产品增长速度比以往任何时候都快。这为未来的强劲增长提供了潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The M1 Chip and Apple Services</b></p><p><blockquote><b>M1芯片和苹果服务</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of future growth, it’s worth exploring two of Apple’s most promising categories:</p><p><blockquote>说到未来的增长，值得探索苹果最有前途的两个类别：</blockquote></p><p> <i>The M1 Chip and Apple Services.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>M1芯片和苹果服务。</i></blockquote></p><p> The M1 Chip (really the M1 family of chips now) is a new chip designed by Apple based on ARM architecture. The base configuration boasts:</p><p><blockquote>M1芯片（现在实际上是M1家族芯片）是苹果基于ARM架构设计的新型芯片。基本配置拥有：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>An 8-core CPU.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>一个8核CPU。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>A 7-core GPU.</p><p><blockquote><li>7核GPU。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>8 or 16 gigs of RAM (physically built into the chip).</p><p><blockquote><li>8或16 GB内存（物理内置在芯片中）。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>5nm process.</p><p><blockquote><li>5nm工艺。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>16 billion transistors.</p><p><blockquote><li>160亿个晶体管。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>3.2 GHZ max clock rate.</p><p><blockquote><li>3.2 GHZ最大时钟速率。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Incredible specs. And on top of that, there are two new models–the M1 Pro and M1 Max–that offer improvements on the base model. It would be tedious to list detailed spec sheets for these higher end models, but one eye-popping stat is the M1 Max’s 57 billion transistors. This competes with the CPUs included in extremely high end gaming PCs. And of course, that makes newer Macs themselves viable as gaming rigs, as countless&nbsp;YouTube reviewers have noted. Apple already has a sizable market share in laptops and desktops, but with the M1 chip family, it now has a shot at capturing the gaming segment as well. Until now, that market segment has proven elusive to Apple. So, there is significant potential for accelerating growth in Apple’s computer lineup.</p><p><blockquote>难以置信的规格。除此之外，还有两款新型号——M1 Pro和M1 Max——对基本型号进行了改进。列出这些高端型号的详细规格表会很乏味，但一个令人瞠目结舌的统计数据是M1 Max的570亿个晶体管。这与极高端游戏PC中包含的CPU竞争。当然，正如无数YouTube评论者指出的那样，这使得较新的MAC电脑本身可以作为游戏装备。苹果在笔记本电脑和台式机领域已经拥有相当大的市场份额，但凭借M1芯片系列，它现在也有机会占领游戏领域。到目前为止，事实证明，这一细分市场对苹果来说是难以捉摸的。因此，苹果电脑产品线的加速增长潜力巨大。</blockquote></p><p> Next up is Apple services. This is a broad category that includes streaming music, movies, books and more. This category is always expanding and could potentially drive more growth after hardware growth slows down. In the most recent quarter, service growth actually&nbsp;lagged product growth, at 25% vs 30% for the latter. However, services are promising because they’re a category that could continue to grow even after hardware products reach their total addressable market. Global smartphone sales have been&nbsp;flat-lining after years of strong growth. In this environment, it would be unrealistic to expect Apple’s hardware sales to grow as fast as they did in the past. But by selling more services to existing customers, Apple can keep growing its total revenue even as hardware sales underwhelm.</p><p><blockquote>接下来是苹果服务。这是一个广泛的类别，包括流媒体音乐、电影、书籍等。这一类别一直在扩大，并可能在硬件增长放缓后推动更多增长。在最近一个季度，服务增长实际上落后于产品增长，为25%，而后者为30%。然而，服务是有前途的，因为即使在硬件产品达到其总目标市场之后，它们也可以继续增长。经过多年的强劲增长，全球智能手机销量一直持平。在这种环境下，期望苹果的硬件销售像过去那样快速增长是不现实的。但通过向现有客户销售更多服务，苹果可以在硬件销售不佳的情况下保持总收入增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financials and Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Now we can turn to Apple’s financials.</p><p><blockquote>现在我们可以转向苹果的财务状况。</blockquote></p><p> Apple’s most recent quarter was a&nbsp;miss on both revenue and earnings; however, the results were strong in absolute terms. In the quarter, Apple delivered:</p><p><blockquote>苹果最近一个季度的收入和盈利均未达到预期；然而，从绝对值来看，结果是强劲的。本季度，苹果交付了：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>$83 billion in revenue, up 29%.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>营收830亿美元，增长29%。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>$27.3 billion in operating income, up 60%.</p><p><blockquote><li>营业收入273亿美元，增长60%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>$20.5 billion in net income, up 63%.</p><p><blockquote><li>净利润205亿美元，增长63%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>$1.24 in diluted EPS, up 69%.</p><p><blockquote><li>稀释后每股收益为1.24美元，增长69%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> The company also reported $104 billion in TTM cash from operations in its fourth quarter report. That was up 28% from the year before.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还在第四季度报告中报告了1040亿美元的TTM运营现金。这比去年增长了28%。</blockquote></p><p> These were pretty solid results. Especially for a mature company. Apple is the biggest company in the world by market cap, yet its revenue and earnings are both up by growth stock levels. And this one quarter wasn’t a fluke. According to&nbsp;Seeking Alpha Quant, Apple’s five-year CAGR growth rates in the metrics listed above are:</p><p><blockquote>这些都是相当可靠的结果。尤其是对于一家成熟的公司来说。按市值计算，苹果是世界上最大的公司，但其收入和盈利均以成长型股票的水平增长。这一个季度并非侥幸。根据Seeking Alpha Quant的数据，苹果上述指标的五年复合年增长率为：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Revenue: 11%.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>收入：11%。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Operating income: 12.7%.</p><p><blockquote><li>营业收入：12.7%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Net income: 15.7%.</p><p><blockquote><li>净利润：15.7%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Diluted EPS: 22%.</p><p><blockquote><li>稀释后每股收益：22%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Cash flow: 10.7%.</p><p><blockquote><li>现金流：10.7%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Again very solid for a mature company. It does look like the most recent quarter was better than average, but the long-term metrics are still very good. Which gets to the heart of this article’s thesis:</p><p><blockquote>对于一家成熟的公司来说，这也是非常可靠的。最近一个季度看起来确实好于平均水平，但长期指标仍然非常好。这就抓住了本文论点的核心：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Apple is definitely not a bubble stock. Its valuation is fairly steep, as it trades at 30 times earnings, 7.7 times sales, and 26 times cash flow. But the company still has plenty of growth potential. Compounded annually, its earnings are growing at 22%, and as the most recent quarter showed, it has room for acceleration. If you factor in both growth and value, you get a&nbsp;PEG ratio of just 0.43&nbsp;for the trailing 12-month period. That’s far from a bubble valuation. In fact, it looks downright cheap.</p><p><blockquote>苹果绝对不是泡沫股。其估值相当高，市盈率为30倍，销售额为7.7倍，现金流为26倍。但该公司仍有很大的增长潜力。按年复合计算，其盈利以22%的速度增长，正如最近一个季度所显示的那样，它还有加速的空间。如果同时考虑增长和价值，过去12个月的PEG比率仅为0.43。这远非泡沫估值。事实上，它看起来非常便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks and Challenges</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险与挑战</b></blockquote></p><p> While Apple is definitely an ultra-profitable company with strong growth and a moderate valuation, its stock is not without its risks. As a major hardware company, it is vulnerable to supply chain issues, and other shocks. Some major risks and challenges to the bullish thesis outlined in this article include:</p><p><blockquote>虽然苹果绝对是一家增长强劲、估值适中的超盈利公司，但其股票并非没有风险。作为一家主要的硬件公司，它很容易受到供应链问题和其他冲击的影响。本文概述的看涨论点面临的一些主要风险和挑战包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Supply chain issues.</b>The world is currently going through a chip shortage, as well as shortages of various other hi-tech parts. These problems are affecting Apple. Just recently, the company&nbsp;slashed iPhone production&nbsp;because of supply chain issues. That right before the crucial Holiday season, no less. These kinds of problems are an ever-present threat for a hardware company like Apple, which depends on a ready supply of raw materials to keep sales flowing.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>供应链问题。</b>世界目前正在经历芯片短缺，以及各种其他高科技部件的短缺。这些问题正在影响苹果。就在最近，由于供应链问题，该公司大幅削减了iPhone产量。就在关键的假期之前。对于像苹果这样的硬件公司来说，这类问题是一个始终存在的威胁，该公司依靠现成的原材料供应来保持销售流动。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Scale.</b>Mathematically, the bigger something gets, the larger of an increase is needed to drive percentage gains equal to past ones. If you start selling $1,000 widgets and sell one your first year, you double your sales just by selling $2,000 worth the next year. If, however, ten years later, you’re selling $332 billion worth, you need customers to come up with $664 billion in the eleventh year to achieve the same growth. This is mathematically unlikely. And as it just so happens, Apple’s $83 billion Q4 revenue annualizes to $332 billion. So growth will be harder to achieve going forward.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>比例。</b>从数学上讲，某物变得越大，需要的增幅就越大，才能推动与过去持平的百分比增长。如果你开始销售1000美元的小工具，第一年就卖出了一个，那么第二年只要卖出价值2000美元的小工具，你的销售额就会翻倍。然而，如果十年后，你的销售额为3320亿美元，你需要客户在第十一年拿出6640亿美元来实现同样的增长。这在数学上是不太可能的。碰巧的是，苹果第四季度830亿美元的年收入达到了3320亿美元。因此，未来将更难实现增长。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Disruption.</b>Apple’s business model requires that it stay on the leading edge of tech innovation. If another company comes out with something decisively superior to the iPhone, that could kill Apple’s business overnight. Apple itself&nbsp;did this once, to&nbsp;<b>BlackBerry</b>(BB), makers of the ill-fated BlackBerry Smartphone. The history of the tech industry is littered with companies eating each other's lunch, and while Apple has billions to spend on R&amp;D, you never know where the next threat will come from.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>中断。</b>苹果的商业模式要求它保持在技术创新的前沿。如果另一家公司推出了明显优于iPhone的产品，这可能会在一夜之间扼杀苹果的业务。苹果自己也做过一次，为了<b>黑莓</b>（BB），命运多舛的黑莓智能手机制造商。科技行业的历史上充斥着公司互相吃午餐的情况，尽管苹果在研发上投入了数十亿美元，但你永远不知道下一个威胁会来自哪里。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> The above are some very real risks for investors to keep in mind. The supply chain risk, in particular, is very real, having been cited as a problem in several quarterly reports. With that said, Apple stock has an incredible moat, decent growth, and a not-unreasonable valuation. This is definitely not a stock to short. And while the gains realized by longs will not be as good in the future as they were in the past, they should still be decent.</p><p><blockquote>以上是投资者需要牢记的一些非常真实的风险。尤其是供应链风险是非常真实的，在几份季度报告中都被认为是一个问题。话虽如此，苹果股票拥有令人难以置信的护城河、良好的增长和并非不合理的估值。这绝对不是一只值得做空的股票。虽然多头实现的收益在未来不会像过去那么好，但它们应该仍然不错。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Are there any bubbles in Apple stock?<blockquote>苹果股票有泡沫吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAre there any bubbles in Apple stock?<blockquote>苹果股票有泡沫吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-23 11:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple stock has risen 34% this year, beating the NASDAQ 100 by a wide margin.</li>  <li>This has led some to say that the stock is in a bubble, as its price is rising rapidly.</li>  <li>However, Apple's stock price gains are about in line with revenue growth, and actually slower than the most recent quarter's EPS growth.</li>  <li>In this article, I will develop a bullish thesis on Apple, arguing that it has a wide moat that will power future growth and profitability.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e9d29c6db997dd98e087415e7e2acfe\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1036\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果股价今年已上涨34%，大幅跑赢纳斯达克100指数。</li><li>这导致一些人说该股存在泡沫，因为其价格正在迅速上涨。</li><li>然而，苹果的股价涨幅与收入增长大致一致，实际上慢于最近一个季度的每股收益增长。</li><li>在本文中，我将对苹果提出看涨论点，认为它拥有宽阔的护城河，将推动未来的增长和盈利能力。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>贾斯汀·沙利文/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple Inc.</b>(AAPL) stock has delivered a solid performance in 2021. Up 35% for the year, it has solidly outperformed both the NASDAQ 100 and the S&amp;P 500. The latest in a long streak of winning years for the company, Apple’s 2021 shows that a stock is never too big to beat the market.</p><p><blockquote><b>苹果公司。</b>(AAPL)股票在2021年表现稳健。该指数今年上涨了35%，表现强劲，优于纳斯达克100指数和标普500。苹果的2021年业绩是该公司长期获胜的最新一年，它表明股票永远不会太大而无法击败市场。</blockquote></p><p> With that said, there’s no shortage of people who think Apple’s winning run is due for a correction. In recent weeks, we’ve seen a deluge of articles claiming that AAPL is overvalued, with titles like:</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，仍有不少人认为苹果的胜利应该得到修正。最近几周，我们看到大量文章声称AAPL被高估，标题如下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>“Apple Stock is Now a Bubble.”</i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>“苹果股票现在是泡沫。”</i></li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><i>“Why Apple Stock May Be a Bubble That’s Ready to Burst.”</i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>“为什么苹果股票可能是一个即将破裂的泡沫。”</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><i>“Sell AAPL? Why This Expert Sees Apple Stock Dipping 12%”</i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>“出售AAPL？为什么这位专家认为苹果股价下跌12%”</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Not all of these articles have been unambiguously bearish. A few mention positives along with negatives. But generally speaking, the sentiment that Apple is a bubble, or at least overvalued, is becoming common. If you look at&nbsp;TipRanks’ sentiment chart, it shows decisively negative sentiment toward Apple stock.</p><p><blockquote>并非所有这些文章都明确悲观。一些人提到了积极的一面和消极的一面。但总体而言，认为苹果是泡沫，或者至少被高估的情绪正在变得普遍。如果你看看TipRanks的情绪图表，就会发现对苹果股票的情绪明显负面。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce8357bc3eaf626336dbf12b2ff1f410\" tg-width=\"485\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: TipRanks’ sentiment chart</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TipRanks情绪图</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The bearishness of investor sentiment toward Apple becomes clear when we compare it to the sentiment toward&nbsp;<b>Meta Platforms</b>(FB). Meta, a company that is being sued for antitrust violations and getting attacked in the press daily, has a nearly perfect sentiment score. So there is no special tech curse that guarantees negative sentiment toward individual stocks in the sector. Apple’s sentiment problem is indeed its own problem.</p><p><blockquote>当我们将投资者对苹果的悲观情绪与对<b>元平台</b>（FB）。Meta是一家因违反反垄断法而被起诉并每天受到媒体攻击的公司，其情绪得分几乎完美。因此，没有什么特殊的科技诅咒可以保证对该行业个股的负面情绪。苹果的情绪问题确实是自己的问题。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68bc8cf3f8fc200c2b7a9c85e69cc9f2\" tg-width=\"488\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Which begs the question:</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：</blockquote></p><p> <i>Why?</i></p><p><blockquote><i>为什么？</i></blockquote></p><p> Apple is a wide-moat stock, one of the few tech companies that controls both hardware and software for most of its users. Many companies have attempted to copy Apple’s strategy of maximizing revenue by integrating hardware and apps, but few have succeeded at it. If you want the IOS or Mac OS experience, you need an iPhone or Mac. And billions of people want those experiences enough to pay top dollar for Apple’s products. Few other tech companies have that advantage –&nbsp;<b>Nintendo</b>(OTCPK:NTDOY) being one exception, if you count gaming as tech.</p><p><blockquote>苹果是一只拥有宽护城河的股票，是少数几家同时控制大多数用户硬件和软件的科技公司之一。许多公司都试图复制苹果通过整合硬件和应用程序来实现收入最大化的策略，但很少有人成功。如果你想要IOS或Mac OS体验，你需要一部iPhone或Mac。数十亿人想要这些体验，足以支付高价购买苹果的产品。很少有其他科技公司拥有这样的优势——<b>任天堂</b>(OTCPK：NTDOY)如果您将游戏视为技术，则是一个例外。</blockquote></p><p> This makes Apple arguably a&nbsp;wide-moat stock. You need Apple hardware to run Apple software, and people like Apple software. This gives Apple a “monopoly” on a certain collection of software experiences. It does not have a monopoly on any particular device category, but it’s the only company that can provide the integrated&nbsp;Apple ecosystem.</p><p><blockquote>这使得苹果可以说是一只拥有宽阔护城河的股票。你需要苹果硬件来运行苹果软件，人们喜欢苹果软件。这使得苹果“垄断”了某一套软件体验。它并不垄断任何特定的设备类别，但它是唯一一家能够提供集成苹果生态系统的公司。</blockquote></p><p> This advantage has paid dividends to Apple shareholders – both figuratively and literally. Apple is the world’s biggest company by market cap and the&nbsp;fourth-biggest by revenue. Its revenue growth rate has slowed in recent years, but certain segments (such as watches and services) are growing faster than ever. It appears, then, that Apple still has the potential for significant profitability and growth. Accordingly, I’ll develop a bullish thesis on Apple in this article, arguing that its solid economic moat provides potential for its stock to appreciate in the future.</p><p><blockquote>这一优势为苹果股东带来了红利——无论是象征性的还是字面上的。按市值计算，苹果是全球最大的公司，按收入计算，它是全球第四大公司。近年来，其收入增长率有所放缓，但某些细分市场（如手表和服务）的增长速度比以往任何时候都快。因此，苹果似乎仍然具有显着盈利和增长的潜力。因此，我将在本文中对苹果提出看涨论点，认为其坚实的经济护城河为其股票未来升值提供了潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Competitive Landscape</b></p><p><blockquote><b>竞争格局</b></blockquote></p><p> One of the most important things to understand about Apple is its competitive position. The company operates in such a wide variety of different markets that it’s hard to pin down its business beyond simply “tech.” Technically, the company’s SIC Code (industry classification) is 7372, denoting “prepackaged software.” However, this doesn’t capture the full extent of Apple’s business activities, as it’s also involved in hardware, semiconductors,payments&nbsp;and entertainment.</p><p><blockquote>了解苹果最重要的一点是它的竞争地位。该公司在如此广泛的不同市场开展业务，以至于很难确定其业务不仅仅是“技术”。从技术上讲，该公司的SIC代码（行业分类）是7372，表示“预打包软件”。然而，这并没有涵盖苹果业务活动的全部范围，因为它还涉及硬件、半导体、支付和娱乐。</blockquote></p><p> Some of Apple’s most noteworthy competitors include:</p><p><blockquote>苹果最值得注意的一些竞争对手包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Samsung</b>(OTC:SSNLF) - smartphones.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>三星</b>（场外交易代码：SSNLF）-智能手机。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Huawei</b>- smartphones.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>华为</b>-智能手机。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Alphabet</b>(GOOG) - smartphones, laptops, and software.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>Alphabet</b>(GOOG)-智能手机、笔记本电脑和软件。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Microsoft</b>(MSFT) - laptops.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>微软</b>（MSFT）-笔记本电脑。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Dell</b>(NYSE:DELL)- laptops.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>戴尔</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：戴尔）-笔记本电脑。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Adobe</b>(ADBE) - creative software.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>土坯</b>（ADBE）-创意软件。</li></blockquote></p><p></p><p></li>  <li>And many more.</p><p><blockquote><li>还有更多。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> A comprehensive list of Apple’s competitors would be impossible to come up with, because the company operates in so many different verticals. In addition to all the names above, Apple is arguably in competition with the big semi companies, as it sells phones and laptops with Apple chips. Apple is one of the most comprehensive tech companies around, with a massive lineup of hardware, software and services, putting it in tacit competition with dozens of companies.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的竞争对手的全面名单是不可能的，因为该公司在许多不同的垂直领域开展业务。除了上述所有名称之外，苹果可以说还在与大型半导体公司竞争，因为它销售采用苹果芯片的手机和笔记本电脑。苹果是最全面的科技公司之一，拥有庞大的硬件、软件和服务阵容，使其与数十家公司展开默契竞争。</blockquote></p><p> How is Apple doing in the industries it competes in? According to&nbsp;Counterpoint Research&nbsp;and Statista, Apple’s market shares include:</p><p><blockquote>苹果在其竞争的行业中表现如何？根据Counterpoint Research和Statista的数据，苹果的市场份额包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Smartphones: 47% in the US and 14% globally.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>智能手机：美国占47%，全球占14%。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Laptops: 15% in the US and 7.6% globally.</p><p><blockquote><li>笔记本电脑：美国15%，全球7.6%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Smartwatches: over 50% globally.</p><p><blockquote><li>智能手表：全球超过50%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Tablets: 35% globally.</p><p><blockquote><li>平板电脑：全球35%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> On the whole, Apple is in first or second place in most of its markets. It’s behind Samsung on smartphone sales but it leads in watches and tablets. This is a pretty good market position. And it could grow over time. Some of Apple’s product categories are still fairly new. The company only just recently broke into smart watches and&nbsp;sales in the category are growing at 50%. Apple has taken heat lately for its slowing growth, but certain products within the company’s lineup are growing faster than ever. This provides potential for strong growth well into the future.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，苹果在其大部分市场都处于第一或第二的位置。它在智能手机销量方面落后于三星，但在手表和平板电脑方面领先。这是一个相当不错的市场地位。它可能会随着时间的推移而增长。苹果的一些产品类别仍然相当新。该公司最近才涉足智能手表领域，该类别的销售额正以50%的速度增长。苹果最近因增长放缓而受到批评，但该公司产品线中的某些产品增长速度比以往任何时候都快。这为未来的强劲增长提供了潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The M1 Chip and Apple Services</b></p><p><blockquote><b>M1芯片和苹果服务</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of future growth, it’s worth exploring two of Apple’s most promising categories:</p><p><blockquote>说到未来的增长，值得探索苹果最有前途的两个类别：</blockquote></p><p> <i>The M1 Chip and Apple Services.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>M1芯片和苹果服务。</i></blockquote></p><p> The M1 Chip (really the M1 family of chips now) is a new chip designed by Apple based on ARM architecture. The base configuration boasts:</p><p><blockquote>M1芯片（现在实际上是M1家族芯片）是苹果基于ARM架构设计的新型芯片。基本配置拥有：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>An 8-core CPU.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>一个8核CPU。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>A 7-core GPU.</p><p><blockquote><li>7核GPU。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>8 or 16 gigs of RAM (physically built into the chip).</p><p><blockquote><li>8或16 GB内存（物理内置在芯片中）。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>5nm process.</p><p><blockquote><li>5nm工艺。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>16 billion transistors.</p><p><blockquote><li>160亿个晶体管。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>3.2 GHZ max clock rate.</p><p><blockquote><li>3.2 GHZ最大时钟速率。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Incredible specs. And on top of that, there are two new models–the M1 Pro and M1 Max–that offer improvements on the base model. It would be tedious to list detailed spec sheets for these higher end models, but one eye-popping stat is the M1 Max’s 57 billion transistors. This competes with the CPUs included in extremely high end gaming PCs. And of course, that makes newer Macs themselves viable as gaming rigs, as countless&nbsp;YouTube reviewers have noted. Apple already has a sizable market share in laptops and desktops, but with the M1 chip family, it now has a shot at capturing the gaming segment as well. Until now, that market segment has proven elusive to Apple. So, there is significant potential for accelerating growth in Apple’s computer lineup.</p><p><blockquote>难以置信的规格。除此之外，还有两款新型号——M1 Pro和M1 Max——对基本型号进行了改进。列出这些高端型号的详细规格表会很乏味，但一个令人瞠目结舌的统计数据是M1 Max的570亿个晶体管。这与极高端游戏PC中包含的CPU竞争。当然，正如无数YouTube评论者指出的那样，这使得较新的MAC电脑本身可以作为游戏装备。苹果在笔记本电脑和台式机领域已经拥有相当大的市场份额，但凭借M1芯片系列，它现在也有机会占领游戏领域。到目前为止，事实证明，这一细分市场对苹果来说是难以捉摸的。因此，苹果电脑产品线的加速增长潜力巨大。</blockquote></p><p> Next up is Apple services. This is a broad category that includes streaming music, movies, books and more. This category is always expanding and could potentially drive more growth after hardware growth slows down. In the most recent quarter, service growth actually&nbsp;lagged product growth, at 25% vs 30% for the latter. However, services are promising because they’re a category that could continue to grow even after hardware products reach their total addressable market. Global smartphone sales have been&nbsp;flat-lining after years of strong growth. In this environment, it would be unrealistic to expect Apple’s hardware sales to grow as fast as they did in the past. But by selling more services to existing customers, Apple can keep growing its total revenue even as hardware sales underwhelm.</p><p><blockquote>接下来是苹果服务。这是一个广泛的类别，包括流媒体音乐、电影、书籍等。这一类别一直在扩大，并可能在硬件增长放缓后推动更多增长。在最近一个季度，服务增长实际上落后于产品增长，为25%，而后者为30%。然而，服务是有前途的，因为即使在硬件产品达到其总目标市场之后，它们也可以继续增长。经过多年的强劲增长，全球智能手机销量一直持平。在这种环境下，期望苹果的硬件销售像过去那样快速增长是不现实的。但通过向现有客户销售更多服务，苹果可以在硬件销售不佳的情况下保持总收入增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financials and Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Now we can turn to Apple’s financials.</p><p><blockquote>现在我们可以转向苹果的财务状况。</blockquote></p><p> Apple’s most recent quarter was a&nbsp;miss on both revenue and earnings; however, the results were strong in absolute terms. In the quarter, Apple delivered:</p><p><blockquote>苹果最近一个季度的收入和盈利均未达到预期；然而，从绝对值来看，结果是强劲的。本季度，苹果交付了：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>$83 billion in revenue, up 29%.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>营收830亿美元，增长29%。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>$27.3 billion in operating income, up 60%.</p><p><blockquote><li>营业收入273亿美元，增长60%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>$20.5 billion in net income, up 63%.</p><p><blockquote><li>净利润205亿美元，增长63%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>$1.24 in diluted EPS, up 69%.</p><p><blockquote><li>稀释后每股收益为1.24美元，增长69%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> The company also reported $104 billion in TTM cash from operations in its fourth quarter report. That was up 28% from the year before.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还在第四季度报告中报告了1040亿美元的TTM运营现金。这比去年增长了28%。</blockquote></p><p> These were pretty solid results. Especially for a mature company. Apple is the biggest company in the world by market cap, yet its revenue and earnings are both up by growth stock levels. And this one quarter wasn’t a fluke. According to&nbsp;Seeking Alpha Quant, Apple’s five-year CAGR growth rates in the metrics listed above are:</p><p><blockquote>这些都是相当可靠的结果。尤其是对于一家成熟的公司来说。按市值计算，苹果是世界上最大的公司，但其收入和盈利均以成长型股票的水平增长。这一个季度并非侥幸。根据Seeking Alpha Quant的数据，苹果上述指标的五年复合年增长率为：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Revenue: 11%.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>收入：11%。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Operating income: 12.7%.</p><p><blockquote><li>营业收入：12.7%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Net income: 15.7%.</p><p><blockquote><li>净利润：15.7%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Diluted EPS: 22%.</p><p><blockquote><li>稀释后每股收益：22%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Cash flow: 10.7%.</p><p><blockquote><li>现金流：10.7%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Again very solid for a mature company. It does look like the most recent quarter was better than average, but the long-term metrics are still very good. Which gets to the heart of this article’s thesis:</p><p><blockquote>对于一家成熟的公司来说，这也是非常可靠的。最近一个季度看起来确实好于平均水平，但长期指标仍然非常好。这就抓住了本文论点的核心：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Apple is definitely not a bubble stock. Its valuation is fairly steep, as it trades at 30 times earnings, 7.7 times sales, and 26 times cash flow. But the company still has plenty of growth potential. Compounded annually, its earnings are growing at 22%, and as the most recent quarter showed, it has room for acceleration. If you factor in both growth and value, you get a&nbsp;PEG ratio of just 0.43&nbsp;for the trailing 12-month period. That’s far from a bubble valuation. In fact, it looks downright cheap.</p><p><blockquote>苹果绝对不是泡沫股。其估值相当高，市盈率为30倍，销售额为7.7倍，现金流为26倍。但该公司仍有很大的增长潜力。按年复合计算，其盈利以22%的速度增长，正如最近一个季度所显示的那样，它还有加速的空间。如果同时考虑增长和价值，过去12个月的PEG比率仅为0.43。这远非泡沫估值。事实上，它看起来非常便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks and Challenges</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险与挑战</b></blockquote></p><p> While Apple is definitely an ultra-profitable company with strong growth and a moderate valuation, its stock is not without its risks. As a major hardware company, it is vulnerable to supply chain issues, and other shocks. Some major risks and challenges to the bullish thesis outlined in this article include:</p><p><blockquote>虽然苹果绝对是一家增长强劲、估值适中的超盈利公司，但其股票并非没有风险。作为一家主要的硬件公司，它很容易受到供应链问题和其他冲击的影响。本文概述的看涨论点面临的一些主要风险和挑战包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Supply chain issues.</b>The world is currently going through a chip shortage, as well as shortages of various other hi-tech parts. These problems are affecting Apple. Just recently, the company&nbsp;slashed iPhone production&nbsp;because of supply chain issues. That right before the crucial Holiday season, no less. These kinds of problems are an ever-present threat for a hardware company like Apple, which depends on a ready supply of raw materials to keep sales flowing.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>供应链问题。</b>世界目前正在经历芯片短缺，以及各种其他高科技部件的短缺。这些问题正在影响苹果。就在最近，由于供应链问题，该公司大幅削减了iPhone产量。就在关键的假期之前。对于像苹果这样的硬件公司来说，这类问题是一个始终存在的威胁，该公司依靠现成的原材料供应来保持销售流动。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Scale.</b>Mathematically, the bigger something gets, the larger of an increase is needed to drive percentage gains equal to past ones. If you start selling $1,000 widgets and sell one your first year, you double your sales just by selling $2,000 worth the next year. If, however, ten years later, you’re selling $332 billion worth, you need customers to come up with $664 billion in the eleventh year to achieve the same growth. This is mathematically unlikely. And as it just so happens, Apple’s $83 billion Q4 revenue annualizes to $332 billion. So growth will be harder to achieve going forward.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>比例。</b>从数学上讲，某物变得越大，需要的增幅就越大，才能推动与过去持平的百分比增长。如果你开始销售1000美元的小工具，第一年就卖出了一个，那么第二年只要卖出价值2000美元的小工具，你的销售额就会翻倍。然而，如果十年后，你的销售额为3320亿美元，你需要客户在第十一年拿出6640亿美元来实现同样的增长。这在数学上是不太可能的。碰巧的是，苹果第四季度830亿美元的年收入达到了3320亿美元。因此，未来将更难实现增长。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Disruption.</b>Apple’s business model requires that it stay on the leading edge of tech innovation. If another company comes out with something decisively superior to the iPhone, that could kill Apple’s business overnight. Apple itself&nbsp;did this once, to&nbsp;<b>BlackBerry</b>(BB), makers of the ill-fated BlackBerry Smartphone. The history of the tech industry is littered with companies eating each other's lunch, and while Apple has billions to spend on R&amp;D, you never know where the next threat will come from.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>中断。</b>苹果的商业模式要求它保持在技术创新的前沿。如果另一家公司推出了明显优于iPhone的产品，这可能会在一夜之间扼杀苹果的业务。苹果自己也做过一次，为了<b>黑莓</b>（BB），命运多舛的黑莓智能手机制造商。科技行业的历史上充斥着公司互相吃午餐的情况，尽管苹果在研发上投入了数十亿美元，但你永远不知道下一个威胁会来自哪里。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> The above are some very real risks for investors to keep in mind. The supply chain risk, in particular, is very real, having been cited as a problem in several quarterly reports. With that said, Apple stock has an incredible moat, decent growth, and a not-unreasonable valuation. This is definitely not a stock to short. And while the gains realized by longs will not be as good in the future as they were in the past, they should still be decent.</p><p><blockquote>以上是投资者需要牢记的一些非常真实的风险。尤其是供应链风险是非常真实的，在几份季度报告中都被认为是一个问题。话虽如此，苹果股票拥有令人难以置信的护城河、良好的增长和并非不合理的估值。这绝对不是一只值得做空的股票。虽然多头实现的收益在未来不会像过去那么好，但它们应该仍然不错。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476363-apple-stock-no-bubble\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476363-apple-stock-no-bubble","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1164467804","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple stock has risen 34% this year, beating the NASDAQ 100 by a wide margin.\nThis has led some to say that the stock is in a bubble, as its price is rising rapidly.\nHowever, Apple's stock price gains are about in line with revenue growth, and actually slower than the most recent quarter's EPS growth.\nIn this article, I will develop a bullish thesis on Apple, arguing that it has a wide moat that will power future growth and profitability.\n\nJustin Sullivan/Getty Images News\nApple Inc.(AAPL) stock has delivered a solid performance in 2021. Up 35% for the year, it has solidly outperformed both the NASDAQ 100 and the S&P 500. The latest in a long streak of winning years for the company, Apple’s 2021 shows that a stock is never too big to beat the market.\nWith that said, there’s no shortage of people who think Apple’s winning run is due for a correction. In recent weeks, we’ve seen a deluge of articles claiming that AAPL is overvalued, with titles like:\n\n“Apple Stock is Now a Bubble.”\n“Why Apple Stock May Be a Bubble That’s Ready to Burst.”\n“Sell AAPL? Why This Expert Sees Apple Stock Dipping 12%”\n\nNot all of these articles have been unambiguously bearish. A few mention positives along with negatives. But generally speaking, the sentiment that Apple is a bubble, or at least overvalued, is becoming common. If you look at TipRanks’ sentiment chart, it shows decisively negative sentiment toward Apple stock.\nSource: TipRanks’ sentiment chart\nThe bearishness of investor sentiment toward Apple becomes clear when we compare it to the sentiment toward Meta Platforms(FB). Meta, a company that is being sued for antitrust violations and getting attacked in the press daily, has a nearly perfect sentiment score. So there is no special tech curse that guarantees negative sentiment toward individual stocks in the sector. Apple’s sentiment problem is indeed its own problem.\n\nWhich begs the question:\nWhy?\nApple is a wide-moat stock, one of the few tech companies that controls both hardware and software for most of its users. Many companies have attempted to copy Apple’s strategy of maximizing revenue by integrating hardware and apps, but few have succeeded at it. If you want the IOS or Mac OS experience, you need an iPhone or Mac. And billions of people want those experiences enough to pay top dollar for Apple’s products. Few other tech companies have that advantage – Nintendo(OTCPK:NTDOY) being one exception, if you count gaming as tech.\nThis makes Apple arguably a wide-moat stock. You need Apple hardware to run Apple software, and people like Apple software. This gives Apple a “monopoly” on a certain collection of software experiences. It does not have a monopoly on any particular device category, but it’s the only company that can provide the integrated Apple ecosystem.\nThis advantage has paid dividends to Apple shareholders – both figuratively and literally. Apple is the world’s biggest company by market cap and the fourth-biggest by revenue. Its revenue growth rate has slowed in recent years, but certain segments (such as watches and services) are growing faster than ever. It appears, then, that Apple still has the potential for significant profitability and growth. Accordingly, I’ll develop a bullish thesis on Apple in this article, arguing that its solid economic moat provides potential for its stock to appreciate in the future.\nCompetitive Landscape\nOne of the most important things to understand about Apple is its competitive position. The company operates in such a wide variety of different markets that it’s hard to pin down its business beyond simply “tech.” Technically, the company’s SIC Code (industry classification) is 7372, denoting “prepackaged software.” However, this doesn’t capture the full extent of Apple’s business activities, as it’s also involved in hardware, semiconductors,payments and entertainment.\nSome of Apple’s most noteworthy competitors include:\n\nSamsung(OTC:SSNLF) - smartphones.\nHuawei- smartphones.\nAlphabet(GOOG) - smartphones, laptops, and software.\nMicrosoft(MSFT) - laptops.\nDell(NYSE:DELL)- laptops.\nAdobe(ADBE) - creative software.\nAnd many more.\n\nA comprehensive list of Apple’s competitors would be impossible to come up with, because the company operates in so many different verticals. In addition to all the names above, Apple is arguably in competition with the big semi companies, as it sells phones and laptops with Apple chips. Apple is one of the most comprehensive tech companies around, with a massive lineup of hardware, software and services, putting it in tacit competition with dozens of companies.\nHow is Apple doing in the industries it competes in? According to Counterpoint Research and Statista, Apple’s market shares include:\n\nSmartphones: 47% in the US and 14% globally.\nLaptops: 15% in the US and 7.6% globally.\nSmartwatches: over 50% globally.\nTablets: 35% globally.\n\nOn the whole, Apple is in first or second place in most of its markets. It’s behind Samsung on smartphone sales but it leads in watches and tablets. This is a pretty good market position. And it could grow over time. Some of Apple’s product categories are still fairly new. The company only just recently broke into smart watches and sales in the category are growing at 50%. Apple has taken heat lately for its slowing growth, but certain products within the company’s lineup are growing faster than ever. This provides potential for strong growth well into the future.\nThe M1 Chip and Apple Services\nSpeaking of future growth, it’s worth exploring two of Apple’s most promising categories:\nThe M1 Chip and Apple Services.\nThe M1 Chip (really the M1 family of chips now) is a new chip designed by Apple based on ARM architecture. The base configuration boasts:\n\nAn 8-core CPU.\nA 7-core GPU.\n8 or 16 gigs of RAM (physically built into the chip).\n5nm process.\n16 billion transistors.\n3.2 GHZ max clock rate.\n\nIncredible specs. And on top of that, there are two new models–the M1 Pro and M1 Max–that offer improvements on the base model. It would be tedious to list detailed spec sheets for these higher end models, but one eye-popping stat is the M1 Max’s 57 billion transistors. This competes with the CPUs included in extremely high end gaming PCs. And of course, that makes newer Macs themselves viable as gaming rigs, as countless YouTube reviewers have noted. Apple already has a sizable market share in laptops and desktops, but with the M1 chip family, it now has a shot at capturing the gaming segment as well. Until now, that market segment has proven elusive to Apple. So, there is significant potential for accelerating growth in Apple’s computer lineup.\nNext up is Apple services. This is a broad category that includes streaming music, movies, books and more. This category is always expanding and could potentially drive more growth after hardware growth slows down. In the most recent quarter, service growth actually lagged product growth, at 25% vs 30% for the latter. However, services are promising because they’re a category that could continue to grow even after hardware products reach their total addressable market. Global smartphone sales have been flat-lining after years of strong growth. In this environment, it would be unrealistic to expect Apple’s hardware sales to grow as fast as they did in the past. But by selling more services to existing customers, Apple can keep growing its total revenue even as hardware sales underwhelm.\nFinancials and Valuation\nNow we can turn to Apple’s financials.\nApple’s most recent quarter was a miss on both revenue and earnings; however, the results were strong in absolute terms. In the quarter, Apple delivered:\n\n$83 billion in revenue, up 29%.\n$27.3 billion in operating income, up 60%.\n$20.5 billion in net income, up 63%.\n$1.24 in diluted EPS, up 69%.\n\nThe company also reported $104 billion in TTM cash from operations in its fourth quarter report. That was up 28% from the year before.\nThese were pretty solid results. Especially for a mature company. Apple is the biggest company in the world by market cap, yet its revenue and earnings are both up by growth stock levels. And this one quarter wasn’t a fluke. According to Seeking Alpha Quant, Apple’s five-year CAGR growth rates in the metrics listed above are:\n\nRevenue: 11%.\nOperating income: 12.7%.\nNet income: 15.7%.\nDiluted EPS: 22%.\nCash flow: 10.7%.\n\nAgain very solid for a mature company. It does look like the most recent quarter was better than average, but the long-term metrics are still very good. Which gets to the heart of this article’s thesis:\nApple is definitely not a bubble stock. Its valuation is fairly steep, as it trades at 30 times earnings, 7.7 times sales, and 26 times cash flow. But the company still has plenty of growth potential. Compounded annually, its earnings are growing at 22%, and as the most recent quarter showed, it has room for acceleration. If you factor in both growth and value, you get a PEG ratio of just 0.43 for the trailing 12-month period. That’s far from a bubble valuation. In fact, it looks downright cheap.\nRisks and Challenges\nWhile Apple is definitely an ultra-profitable company with strong growth and a moderate valuation, its stock is not without its risks. As a major hardware company, it is vulnerable to supply chain issues, and other shocks. Some major risks and challenges to the bullish thesis outlined in this article include:\n\nSupply chain issues.The world is currently going through a chip shortage, as well as shortages of various other hi-tech parts. These problems are affecting Apple. Just recently, the company slashed iPhone production because of supply chain issues. That right before the crucial Holiday season, no less. These kinds of problems are an ever-present threat for a hardware company like Apple, which depends on a ready supply of raw materials to keep sales flowing.\nScale.Mathematically, the bigger something gets, the larger of an increase is needed to drive percentage gains equal to past ones. If you start selling $1,000 widgets and sell one your first year, you double your sales just by selling $2,000 worth the next year. If, however, ten years later, you’re selling $332 billion worth, you need customers to come up with $664 billion in the eleventh year to achieve the same growth. This is mathematically unlikely. And as it just so happens, Apple’s $83 billion Q4 revenue annualizes to $332 billion. So growth will be harder to achieve going forward.\nDisruption.Apple’s business model requires that it stay on the leading edge of tech innovation. If another company comes out with something decisively superior to the iPhone, that could kill Apple’s business overnight. Apple itself did this once, to BlackBerry(BB), makers of the ill-fated BlackBerry Smartphone. The history of the tech industry is littered with companies eating each other's lunch, and while Apple has billions to spend on R&D, you never know where the next threat will come from.\n\nThe above are some very real risks for investors to keep in mind. The supply chain risk, in particular, is very real, having been cited as a problem in several quarterly reports. With that said, Apple stock has an incredible moat, decent growth, and a not-unreasonable valuation. This is definitely not a stock to short. And while the gains realized by longs will not be as good in the future as they were in the past, they should still be decent.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4114,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}