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2021-07-19

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2021-10-31

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2021-10-26

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2021-10-16

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2021-09-05

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Beat the market with this quant system that’s very bullish on stocks at record highs<blockquote>利用这个非常看好历史新高股票的量化系统击败市场</blockquote>

2021-08-18

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2021-08-17

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2021-08-14

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Palantir: 7 Interesting Things From The Q2 2021 Earnings Call<blockquote>Palantir：2021年第二季度收益看涨期权中的7件有趣的事情</blockquote>

2021-07-24

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2021-07-24

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Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote>

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21:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock Set to Rise for a Fifth Day — But It Still Can’t Crack $3 Trillion Market Cap<blockquote>苹果股价将连续第五天上涨，但市值仍无法突破3万亿美元</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121218775","media":"Barrons","summary":"Apple was on track for a fifth consecutive positive trading session on Tuesday, just a day after it ","content":"<p>Apple&nbsp;was on track for a fifth consecutive positive trading session on Tuesday, just a day after it closed at its 24th record high for the year.</p><p><blockquote>周二，苹果有望连续第五个交易日上涨，就在一天前，该股收于今年第24个历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> As the stock climbs, it edges closer to becoming the first publicly traded company with a $3 trillion valuation.</p><p><blockquote>随着股价攀升，它距离成为第一家估值达到3万亿美元的上市公司又近了一步。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts have said the stock could rally even further in 2022&nbsp;as the tech giant continues to grow across all business segments and releases new products, such as a virtual/augmented reality headset.</p><p><blockquote>分析师表示，随着这家科技巨头在所有业务领域继续增长并发布虚拟/增强现实耳机等新产品，该股可能会在2022年进一步上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of Apple (ticker:AAPL) were up 0.4% to $181.03 in premarket trading Tuesday. The stock’s intraday high for the year is $182.13, which it reached earlier in December.</p><p><blockquote>周二盘前交易中，苹果（股票代码：AAPL）股价上涨0.4%，至181.03美元。该股今年盘中高点为182.13美元，于12月初触及。</blockquote></p><p> Investors seemed unfazed by the company’s announcement Monday afternoon to close New York City stores to shoppers following a Covid-19 spike. The stores were open for pickup only, meaning customers could buy products online and pick them up at the store, Apple told <i>Barron’s.</i></p><p><blockquote>投资者似乎对该公司周一下午宣布在Covid-19激增后关闭纽约市商店的消息并不担心。苹果告诉记者，这些商店只开放提货，这意味着顾客可以在网上购买产品并在商店提货<i>巴伦周刊。</i></blockquote></p><p> Apple didn’t say when its New York stores might reopen.</p><p><blockquote>苹果没有透露其纽约商店何时可能重新开业。</blockquote></p><p> The stock gained 2.3% Monday, closing at a record high, and has risen 35.9% this year. It ended the session with a market capitalization of $2.9 trillion.</p><p><blockquote>该股周一上涨2.3%，收于历史新高，今年以来已上涨35.9%。收盘时市值为2.9万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;was up 27.6% during the same time period, and the tech-heavy&nbsp;Nasdaq&nbsp;has gained 23.1%.</p><p><blockquote>同期标准普尔500指数上涨27.6%，以科技股为主的纳斯达克上涨23.1%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock Set to Rise for a Fifth Day — But It Still Can’t Crack $3 Trillion Market Cap<blockquote>苹果股价将连续第五天上涨，但市值仍无法突破3万亿美元</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock Set to Rise for a Fifth Day — But It Still Can’t Crack $3 Trillion Market Cap<blockquote>苹果股价将连续第五天上涨，但市值仍无法突破3万亿美元</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-28 21:44</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple&nbsp;was on track for a fifth consecutive positive trading session on Tuesday, just a day after it closed at its 24th record high for the year.</p><p><blockquote>周二，苹果有望连续第五个交易日上涨，就在一天前，该股收于今年第24个历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> As the stock climbs, it edges closer to becoming the first publicly traded company with a $3 trillion valuation.</p><p><blockquote>随着股价攀升，它距离成为第一家估值达到3万亿美元的上市公司又近了一步。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts have said the stock could rally even further in 2022&nbsp;as the tech giant continues to grow across all business segments and releases new products, such as a virtual/augmented reality headset.</p><p><blockquote>分析师表示，随着这家科技巨头在所有业务领域继续增长并发布虚拟/增强现实耳机等新产品，该股可能会在2022年进一步上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of Apple (ticker:AAPL) were up 0.4% to $181.03 in premarket trading Tuesday. The stock’s intraday high for the year is $182.13, which it reached earlier in December.</p><p><blockquote>周二盘前交易中，苹果（股票代码：AAPL）股价上涨0.4%，至181.03美元。该股今年盘中高点为182.13美元，于12月初触及。</blockquote></p><p> Investors seemed unfazed by the company’s announcement Monday afternoon to close New York City stores to shoppers following a Covid-19 spike. The stores were open for pickup only, meaning customers could buy products online and pick them up at the store, Apple told <i>Barron’s.</i></p><p><blockquote>投资者似乎对该公司周一下午宣布在Covid-19激增后关闭纽约市商店的消息并不担心。苹果告诉记者，这些商店只开放提货，这意味着顾客可以在网上购买产品并在商店提货<i>巴伦周刊。</i></blockquote></p><p> Apple didn’t say when its New York stores might reopen.</p><p><blockquote>苹果没有透露其纽约商店何时可能重新开业。</blockquote></p><p> The stock gained 2.3% Monday, closing at a record high, and has risen 35.9% this year. It ended the session with a market capitalization of $2.9 trillion.</p><p><blockquote>该股周一上涨2.3%，收于历史新高，今年以来已上涨35.9%。收盘时市值为2.9万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;was up 27.6% during the same time period, and the tech-heavy&nbsp;Nasdaq&nbsp;has gained 23.1%.</p><p><blockquote>同期标准普尔500指数上涨27.6%，以科技股为主的纳斯达克上涨23.1%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-stock-price-market-cap-51640696713?mod=hp_LATEST&tesla=y\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-stock-price-market-cap-51640696713?mod=hp_LATEST&tesla=y","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121218775","content_text":"Apple was on track for a fifth consecutive positive trading session on Tuesday, just a day after it closed at its 24th record high for the year.\nAs the stock climbs, it edges closer to becoming the first publicly traded company with a $3 trillion valuation.\nAnalysts have said the stock could rally even further in 2022 as the tech giant continues to grow across all business segments and releases new products, such as a virtual/augmented reality headset.\nShares of Apple (ticker:AAPL) were up 0.4% to $181.03 in premarket trading Tuesday. The stock’s intraday high for the year is $182.13, which it reached earlier in December.\nInvestors seemed unfazed by the company’s announcement Monday afternoon to close New York City stores to shoppers following a Covid-19 spike. The stores were open for pickup only, meaning customers could buy products online and pick them up at the store, Apple told Barron’s.\nApple didn’t say when its New York stores might reopen.\nThe stock gained 2.3% Monday, closing at a record high, and has risen 35.9% this year. It ended the session with a market capitalization of $2.9 trillion.\nThe S&P 500 was up 27.6% during the same time period, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq has gained 23.1%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2924,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":696363856,"gmtCreate":1640619178403,"gmtModify":1640619178746,"author":{"id":"3580379447244817","authorId":"3580379447244817","name":"Haw75","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8a435feb2331b895463eca3c73cdb3f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580379447244817","idStr":"3580379447244817"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Latest//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3586590970630142\">@zero79</a>: Good&nbsp;","listText":"Latest//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3586590970630142\">@zero79</a>: Good&nbsp;","text":"Latest//@zero79: Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/696363856","repostId":"1191134006","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2274,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":698987063,"gmtCreate":1640276564708,"gmtModify":1640277899641,"author":{"id":"3580379447244817","authorId":"3580379447244817","name":"Haw75","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8a435feb2331b895463eca3c73cdb3f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580379447244817","idStr":"3580379447244817"},"themes":[],"title":"let roll","htmlText":"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/santas-call-up/*GG6FMJ-cheer.html?feature=Banner&amp;Page=Me&amp;platform=android&amp;lang=en_US&amp;skin=1&amp;edition=fundamental&amp;invite=GG6FMJ#/","listText":"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/santas-call-up/*GG6FMJ-cheer.html?feature=Banner&amp;Page=Me&amp;platform=android&amp;lang=en_US&amp;skin=1&amp;edition=fundamental&amp;invite=GG6FMJ#/","text":"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/santas-call-up/*GG6FMJ-cheer.html?feature=Banner&Page=Me&platform=android&lang=en_US&skin=1&edition=fundamental&invite=GG6FMJ#/","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698987063","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3644,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":691675653,"gmtCreate":1640189298300,"gmtModify":1640189298723,"author":{"id":"3580379447244817","authorId":"3580379447244817","name":"Haw75","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8a435feb2331b895463eca3c73cdb3f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580379447244817","idStr":"3580379447244817"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"T","listText":"T","text":"T","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691675653","repostId":"690718702","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":690718702,"gmtCreate":1639708311591,"gmtModify":1640015459140,"author":{"id":"3574968450404111","authorId":"3574968450404111","name":"B.God","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fba96cdefc2640a0413c00996aed28d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574968450404111","idStr":"3574968450404111"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>Those who bought Tesla above $1000, be ready to suffer huge lossesin 2022 as FED will be tapering and raising interest rates in 2022. Tesla may not even see $800-1000 ever again in next decade once FED taper. You guys do realise Tsla able to hit $1000 is because of FED montary policy in 2020-2021 right? Else its a $300-400 stock. FEDhave pumped in during the pandemic with excessive money causing big tech stocks to be overvalued by at least 40-50%. Now they shutting the money printing. It is only natural that Tesla goes back down to $400-500. Afterall even at $500 shareprice, it have already priced in 50% year on year growth till 2030.","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>Those who bought Tesla above $1000, be ready to suffer huge lossesin 2022 as FED will be tapering and raising interest rates in 2022. Tesla may not even see $800-1000 ever again in next decade once FED taper. You guys do realise Tsla able to hit $1000 is because of FED montary policy in 2020-2021 right? Else its a $300-400 stock. FEDhave pumped in during the pandemic with excessive money causing big tech stocks to be overvalued by at least 40-50%. Now they shutting the money printing. It is only natural that Tesla goes back down to $400-500. Afterall even at $500 shareprice, it have already priced in 50% year on year growth till 2030.","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$Those who bought Tesla above $1000, be ready to suffer huge lossesin 2022 as FED will be tapering and raising interest rates in 2022. Tesla may not even see $800-1000 ever again in next decade once FED taper. You guys do realise Tsla able to hit $1000 is because of FED montary policy in 2020-2021 right? Else its a $300-400 stock. FEDhave pumped in during the pandemic with excessive money causing big tech stocks to be overvalued by at least 40-50%. Now they shutting the money printing. It is only natural that Tesla goes back down to $400-500. Afterall even at $500 shareprice, it have already priced in 50% year on year growth till 2030.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690718702","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2330,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":699736651,"gmtCreate":1639891040310,"gmtModify":1639891040655,"author":{"id":"3580379447244817","authorId":"3580379447244817","name":"Haw75","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8a435feb2331b895463eca3c73cdb3f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580379447244817","idStr":"3580379447244817"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hello","listText":"Hello","text":"Hello","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699736651","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2163,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":690247817,"gmtCreate":1639673359435,"gmtModify":1639673359785,"author":{"id":"3580379447244817","authorId":"3580379447244817","name":"Haw75","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8a435feb2331b895463eca3c73cdb3f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580379447244817","idStr":"3580379447244817"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Share","listText":"Share","text":"Share","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690247817","repostId":"607187465","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":607187465,"gmtCreate":1639498315060,"gmtModify":1639557851091,"author":{"id":"4094925871338340","authorId":"4094925871338340","name":"Lashsmith","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094925871338340","idStr":"4094925871338340"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>Days to cover for shorts is in the&nbsp;3.15-3.3 range.&nbsp; This is at a year time high.&nbsp; Check the buy to sell ratio for trading days, with buys far outnumbering sells.&nbsp; Then ck the % of trades routed through dark pools.&nbsp; This will give u a clear picture of what's been going on.&nbsp; Meanwhile Apes continue to buy and hold strong✊","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>Days to cover for shorts is in the&nbsp;3.15-3.3 range.&nbsp; This is at a year time high.&nbsp; Check the buy to sell ratio for trading days, with buys far outnumbering sells.&nbsp; Then ck the % of trades routed through dark pools.&nbsp; This will give u a clear picture of what's been going on.&nbsp; Meanwhile Apes continue to buy and hold strong✊","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$Days to cover for shorts is in the 3.15-3.3 range. This is at a year time high. Check the buy to sell ratio for trading days, with buys far outnumbering sells. Then ck the % of trades routed through dark pools. This will give u a clear picture of what's been going on. Meanwhile Apes continue to buy and hold strong✊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607187465","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2678,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":690677613,"gmtCreate":1639666908234,"gmtModify":1639666908541,"author":{"id":"3580379447244817","authorId":"3580379447244817","name":"Haw75","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8a435feb2331b895463eca3c73cdb3f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580379447244817","idStr":"3580379447244817"},"themes":[],"title":"santa bonus","htmlText":"How to win santa bonus?any idea where to get the bonus. Thanks","listText":"How to win santa bonus?any idea where to get the bonus. Thanks","text":"How to win santa bonus?any idea where to get the bonus. Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690677613","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2634,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":690676089,"gmtCreate":1639666699838,"gmtModify":1639666700159,"author":{"id":"3580379447244817","authorId":"3580379447244817","name":"Haw75","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8a435feb2331b895463eca3c73cdb3f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580379447244817","idStr":"3580379447244817"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Latest","listText":"Latest","text":"Latest","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690676089","repostId":"605413050","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":605413050,"gmtCreate":1639213203441,"gmtModify":1749337955151,"author":{"id":"3581820976934736","authorId":"3581820976934736","name":"MilkTeaBro","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f96ac4963a3566e7f4d22e78cc23ef9","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581820976934736","idStr":"3581820976934736"},"themes":[],"title":"STRATEGY – SINGAPORE Remaining Bullish In 1H22","htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ES3.SI\">$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$</a>&nbsp;UOBKH believe that the STI will continue to perform well in 2022. Singapore’s strong GDP growth in 2021 has set the stage for a 29% EPS growth in 2022 on our estimates. Importantly, the STI’s valuations are not stretched at present, trading at 2022F PE and P/B of 13.2x and 1.1x respectively and paying a yield of over 4%. Our year-end 2022 target for the STI is 3,500.https://alphaedgeinvesting.com/","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ES3.SI\">$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$</a>&nbsp;UOBKH believe that the STI will continue to perform well in 2022. Singapore’s strong GDP growth in 2021 has set the stage for a 29% EPS growth in 2022 on our estimates. Importantly, the STI’s valuations are not stretched at present, trading at 2022F PE and P/B of 13.2x and 1.1x respectively and paying a yield of over 4%. Our year-end 2022 target for the STI is 3,500.https://alphaedgeinvesting.com/","text":"$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$ UOBKH believe that the STI will continue to perform well in 2022. Singapore’s strong GDP growth in 2021 has set the stage for a 29% EPS growth in 2022 on our estimates. Importantly, the STI’s valuations are not stretched at present, trading at 2022F PE and P/B of 13.2x and 1.1x respectively and paying a yield of over 4%. Our year-end 2022 target for the STI is 3,500.https://alphaedgeinvesting.com/","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a265c1fedd63dcc275efe0f0c8612296","width":"688","height":"504"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/605413050","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2493,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":690671902,"gmtCreate":1639666611522,"gmtModify":1639666611820,"author":{"id":"3580379447244817","authorId":"3580379447244817","name":"Haw75","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8a435feb2331b895463eca3c73cdb3f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580379447244817","idStr":"3580379447244817"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please like and share&nbsp;","listText":"Please like and share&nbsp;","text":"Please like and share","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690671902","repostId":"1181686014","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181686014","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1639666432,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1181686014?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-16 22:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla fell nearly 1% in morning trading though New York police would buy up to 250 all-electric Model 3 cars<blockquote>尽管纽约警方将购买多达250辆全电动Model 3汽车，但特斯拉早盘下跌近1%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181686014","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Tesla fell nearly 1% in morning trading though New York police would buy up to 250 all-electric Mode","content":"<p>Tesla&nbsp;fell&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;1%&nbsp;in&nbsp;morning&nbsp;trading&nbsp;though&nbsp;New York police&nbsp;would&nbsp;buy&nbsp;up to 250 all-electric Model 3 cars.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a88f381fe4239d26d1254d4f4745b1f0\" tg-width=\"771\" tg-height=\"568\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The New York City Police Department is considering buying up to 250 all-electric Model 3 cars from Tesla, which will enable these high-performance cars to be delivered to the largest police force in the United States.</p><p><blockquote>尽管纽约警方将购买多达250辆全电动Model 3汽车，但特斯拉早盘下跌近1%。纽约市警察局正在考虑从特斯拉购买多达250辆全电动Model 3汽车，这将使这些高性能汽车能够交付给美国最大的警察部队。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla fell nearly 1% in morning trading though New York police would buy up to 250 all-electric Model 3 cars<blockquote>尽管纽约警方将购买多达250辆全电动Model 3汽车，但特斯拉早盘下跌近1%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla fell nearly 1% in morning trading though New York police would buy up to 250 all-electric Model 3 cars<blockquote>尽管纽约警方将购买多达250辆全电动Model 3汽车，但特斯拉早盘下跌近1%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-16 22:53</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tesla&nbsp;fell&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;1%&nbsp;in&nbsp;morning&nbsp;trading&nbsp;though&nbsp;New York police&nbsp;would&nbsp;buy&nbsp;up to 250 all-electric Model 3 cars.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a88f381fe4239d26d1254d4f4745b1f0\" tg-width=\"771\" tg-height=\"568\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The New York City Police Department is considering buying up to 250 all-electric Model 3 cars from Tesla, which will enable these high-performance cars to be delivered to the largest police force in the United States.</p><p><blockquote>尽管纽约警方将购买多达250辆全电动Model 3汽车，但特斯拉早盘下跌近1%。纽约市警察局正在考虑从特斯拉购买多达250辆全电动Model 3汽车，这将使这些高性能汽车能够交付给美国最大的警察部队。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181686014","content_text":"Tesla fell nearly 1% in morning trading though New York police would buy up to 250 all-electric Model 3 cars.The New York City Police Department is considering buying up to 250 all-electric Model 3 cars from Tesla, which will enable these high-performance cars to be delivered to the largest police force in the United 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DWACU\">$Digital World Acquisition Corp.(DWACU)$</a>still can go up?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DWACU\">$Digital World Acquisition Corp.(DWACU)$</a>still can go up?","text":"$Digital World Acquisition Corp.(DWACU)$still can go 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22:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"GM Shares Fall as Barra Sees Chip Shortage Lasting Into 2022<blockquote>巴拉认为芯片短缺将持续到2022年，通用汽车股价下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171243720","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- General Motors Co. said it expects the production-snarling semiconductor shortage to ","content":"<p>(Bloomberg) -- General Motors Co. said it expects the production-snarling semiconductor shortage to last into next year, a view that weighed on its stock price even after reporting better-than-expected earnings for the third quarter.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）——通用汽车公司表示，预计生产混乱的半导体短缺将持续到明年，即使在公布好于预期的第三季度收益后，这一观点仍令其股价承压。</blockquote></p><p> The automaker on Wednesday reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.52 for the third quarter, above the 97 cents analyst consensus forecast compiled by Bloomberg. That compares to $2.83 a share a year ago.</p><p><blockquote>该汽车制造商周三公布第三季度调整后每股收益为1.52美元，高于彭博社编制的分析师普遍预测的97美分。相比之下，一年前为每股2.83美元。</blockquote></p><p> GM said its full-year guidance would come in at the high end of its forecast, but shares erased early gains after the company indicated a computer chip shortfall that has curbed production for months won’t end anytime soon. The muted outlook for chip supplies also implied the fourth quarter could be weaker than expected.</p><p><blockquote>通用汽车表示，其全年指引将处于预测的高端，但在该公司表示数月来限制生产的计算机芯片短缺不会很快结束后，该公司股价抹去了早盘涨幅。芯片供应前景黯淡也意味着第四季度可能弱于预期。</blockquote></p><p> “It will linger into next year and right now our feeling is that we’ll be in much better shape in the second half of 2022,” Chief Executive Officer Mary Barra said in an interview with Bloomberg Television.</p><p><blockquote>首席执行官玛丽·巴拉(Mary Barra)在接受彭博电视台采访时表示：“这种情况将持续到明年，目前我们的感觉是，2022年下半年我们的状况会好得多。”</blockquote></p><p> GM’s shares fell 4.5% to $54.79 as of 9:52 a.m. in New York. The stock had gained 38% this year as of the close on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>截至纽约上午9点52分，通用汽车股价下跌4.5%，至54.79美元。截至周二收盘，该股今年已上涨38%。</blockquote></p><p> Higher Vehicle Prices</p><p><blockquote>车辆价格上涨</blockquote></p><p> The flip side of lower production volumes is higher vehicle prices due to depleted inventories. That helped lift GM’s revenue 10% in the first nine months of the year to $93.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>产量下降的另一面是库存耗尽导致汽车价格上涨。这帮助通用汽车今年前9个月的收入增长了10%，达到934亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The upbeat earnings came despite a previously announced 33% drop in sales volume for the quarter, stemming from low production at factories and thin inventory at dealers.</p><p><blockquote>尽管此前宣布该季度销量下降33%，原因是工厂产量低和经销商库存少，但盈利仍保持乐观。</blockquote></p><p> Barra cited pent-up demand for GM’s sport-utility vehicles and trucks, characterizing the chip shortage as a “near-term” issue. She said that GM is working with chipmakers to ensure this type of supply chain glitch isn’t a recurring problem.</p><p><blockquote>巴拉列举了通用汽车运动型多功能车和卡车被压抑的需求，将芯片短缺描述为“近期”问题。她表示，通用汽车正在与芯片制造商合作，以确保此类供应链故障不会再次出现。</blockquote></p><p> “Our third-quarter 2021 results clearly illustrate the strength of the underlying business that is funding our future, especially when you put them in the context of the calendar year,” Barra said in a letter to shareholders. “As a result, we now believe GM’s full-year results will approach the high end of our guidance.”</p><p><blockquote>巴拉在致股东的信中表示：“我们2021年第三季度的业绩清楚地说明了为我们的未来提供资金的基础业务的实力，特别是当你将它们放在日历年的背景下时。”“因此，我们现在相信通用汽车的全年业绩将接近我们指导的高端。”</blockquote></p><p> The Detroit automaker expects adjusted earnings before interest and taxes of $11.5 billion to $13.5 billion in all of 2021, or $5.70 to $6.70 a share. GM’s results were helped by lending profits and a one-time gain from LG Electronics Inc., which agreed to pay GM $1.9 billion for nearly all of the costs of recalling its Chevy Bolt electric vehicle.</p><p><blockquote>这家底特律汽车制造商预计2021年全年调整后息税前利润为115亿美元至135亿美元，即每股5.70美元至6.70美元。通用汽车的业绩得益于贷款利润和LG电子公司的一次性收益，LG电子同意向通用汽车支付19亿美元，用于支付召回雪佛兰Bolt电动汽车的几乎所有费用。</blockquote></p><p> Even though the company raised its earnings target, the new numbers implied that the company will report fourth-quarter pre-tax profit of about $2 billion, which would be below the consensus forecast of $2.6 billion, Credit Suisse said in an analyst note.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷在一份分析师报告中表示，尽管该公司上调了盈利目标，但新数据暗示该公司将公布第四季度税前利润约为20亿美元，低于市场普遍预期的26亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> GM Financial Shines</p><p><blockquote>通用汽车金融大放异彩</blockquote></p><p> A bright spot for the company is GM Financial, the company’s growing lending arm. Profits fell slightly in the quarter since GM sales were down, but for the year its adjusted earnings more than doubled to $3.9 billion.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的一个亮点是通用汽车金融公司，该公司不断发展的贷款部门。由于通用汽车销量下降，该季度利润略有下降，但全年调整后收益增长了一倍多，达到39亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> GM Financial writes the loans for vehicle leases and once they are up, it sells cars at auction to dealers. With used-car prices at record levels, the GM unit was able to profit from the lack of vehicle supply throughout the industry.</p><p><blockquote>通用汽车金融公司注销车辆租赁贷款，一旦贷款到期，就会通过拍卖将汽车出售给经销商。随着二手车价格达到创纪录水平，通用汽车部门能够从整个行业汽车供应不足中获利。</blockquote></p><p> Thge automaker’s all-important North American business made half the earnings before interest and taxes that the company brought in a year ago at $2.1 billion. Income from China -- GM’s second-biggest market and the world’s largest -- was slightly better, rising to $270 million from $262 million.</p><p><blockquote>Thge汽车制造商最重要的北美业务的息税前利润为21亿美元，仅为该公司一年前的一半。来自通用汽车第二大市场、全球最大市场中国的收入略有改善，从2.62亿美元增至2.7亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>GM Shares Fall as Barra Sees Chip Shortage Lasting Into 2022<blockquote>巴拉认为芯片短缺将持续到2022年，通用汽车股价下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGM Shares Fall as Barra Sees Chip Shortage Lasting Into 2022<blockquote>巴拉认为芯片短缺将持续到2022年，通用汽车股价下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Bloomberg</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-27 22:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Bloomberg) -- General Motors Co. said it expects the production-snarling semiconductor shortage to last into next year, a view that weighed on its stock price even after reporting better-than-expected earnings for the third quarter.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）——通用汽车公司表示，预计生产混乱的半导体短缺将持续到明年，即使在公布好于预期的第三季度收益后，这一观点仍令其股价承压。</blockquote></p><p> The automaker on Wednesday reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.52 for the third quarter, above the 97 cents analyst consensus forecast compiled by Bloomberg. That compares to $2.83 a share a year ago.</p><p><blockquote>该汽车制造商周三公布第三季度调整后每股收益为1.52美元，高于彭博社编制的分析师普遍预测的97美分。相比之下，一年前为每股2.83美元。</blockquote></p><p> GM said its full-year guidance would come in at the high end of its forecast, but shares erased early gains after the company indicated a computer chip shortfall that has curbed production for months won’t end anytime soon. The muted outlook for chip supplies also implied the fourth quarter could be weaker than expected.</p><p><blockquote>通用汽车表示，其全年指引将处于预测的高端，但在该公司表示数月来限制生产的计算机芯片短缺不会很快结束后，该公司股价抹去了早盘涨幅。芯片供应前景黯淡也意味着第四季度可能弱于预期。</blockquote></p><p> “It will linger into next year and right now our feeling is that we’ll be in much better shape in the second half of 2022,” Chief Executive Officer Mary Barra said in an interview with Bloomberg Television.</p><p><blockquote>首席执行官玛丽·巴拉(Mary Barra)在接受彭博电视台采访时表示：“这种情况将持续到明年，目前我们的感觉是，2022年下半年我们的状况会好得多。”</blockquote></p><p> GM’s shares fell 4.5% to $54.79 as of 9:52 a.m. in New York. The stock had gained 38% this year as of the close on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>截至纽约上午9点52分，通用汽车股价下跌4.5%，至54.79美元。截至周二收盘，该股今年已上涨38%。</blockquote></p><p> Higher Vehicle Prices</p><p><blockquote>车辆价格上涨</blockquote></p><p> The flip side of lower production volumes is higher vehicle prices due to depleted inventories. That helped lift GM’s revenue 10% in the first nine months of the year to $93.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>产量下降的另一面是库存耗尽导致汽车价格上涨。这帮助通用汽车今年前9个月的收入增长了10%，达到934亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The upbeat earnings came despite a previously announced 33% drop in sales volume for the quarter, stemming from low production at factories and thin inventory at dealers.</p><p><blockquote>尽管此前宣布该季度销量下降33%，原因是工厂产量低和经销商库存少，但盈利仍保持乐观。</blockquote></p><p> Barra cited pent-up demand for GM’s sport-utility vehicles and trucks, characterizing the chip shortage as a “near-term” issue. She said that GM is working with chipmakers to ensure this type of supply chain glitch isn’t a recurring problem.</p><p><blockquote>巴拉列举了通用汽车运动型多功能车和卡车被压抑的需求，将芯片短缺描述为“近期”问题。她表示，通用汽车正在与芯片制造商合作，以确保此类供应链故障不会再次出现。</blockquote></p><p> “Our third-quarter 2021 results clearly illustrate the strength of the underlying business that is funding our future, especially when you put them in the context of the calendar year,” Barra said in a letter to shareholders. “As a result, we now believe GM’s full-year results will approach the high end of our guidance.”</p><p><blockquote>巴拉在致股东的信中表示：“我们2021年第三季度的业绩清楚地说明了为我们的未来提供资金的基础业务的实力，特别是当你将它们放在日历年的背景下时。”“因此，我们现在相信通用汽车的全年业绩将接近我们指导的高端。”</blockquote></p><p> The Detroit automaker expects adjusted earnings before interest and taxes of $11.5 billion to $13.5 billion in all of 2021, or $5.70 to $6.70 a share. GM’s results were helped by lending profits and a one-time gain from LG Electronics Inc., which agreed to pay GM $1.9 billion for nearly all of the costs of recalling its Chevy Bolt electric vehicle.</p><p><blockquote>这家底特律汽车制造商预计2021年全年调整后息税前利润为115亿美元至135亿美元，即每股5.70美元至6.70美元。通用汽车的业绩得益于贷款利润和LG电子公司的一次性收益，LG电子同意向通用汽车支付19亿美元，用于支付召回雪佛兰Bolt电动汽车的几乎所有费用。</blockquote></p><p> Even though the company raised its earnings target, the new numbers implied that the company will report fourth-quarter pre-tax profit of about $2 billion, which would be below the consensus forecast of $2.6 billion, Credit Suisse said in an analyst note.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷在一份分析师报告中表示，尽管该公司上调了盈利目标，但新数据暗示该公司将公布第四季度税前利润约为20亿美元，低于市场普遍预期的26亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> GM Financial Shines</p><p><blockquote>通用汽车金融大放异彩</blockquote></p><p> A bright spot for the company is GM Financial, the company’s growing lending arm. Profits fell slightly in the quarter since GM sales were down, but for the year its adjusted earnings more than doubled to $3.9 billion.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的一个亮点是通用汽车金融公司，该公司不断发展的贷款部门。由于通用汽车销量下降，该季度利润略有下降，但全年调整后收益增长了一倍多，达到39亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> GM Financial writes the loans for vehicle leases and once they are up, it sells cars at auction to dealers. With used-car prices at record levels, the GM unit was able to profit from the lack of vehicle supply throughout the industry.</p><p><blockquote>通用汽车金融公司注销车辆租赁贷款，一旦贷款到期，就会通过拍卖将汽车出售给经销商。随着二手车价格达到创纪录水平，通用汽车部门能够从整个行业汽车供应不足中获利。</blockquote></p><p> Thge automaker’s all-important North American business made half the earnings before interest and taxes that the company brought in a year ago at $2.1 billion. Income from China -- GM’s second-biggest market and the world’s largest -- was slightly better, rising to $270 million from $262 million.</p><p><blockquote>Thge汽车制造商最重要的北美业务的息税前利润为21亿美元，仅为该公司一年前的一半。来自通用汽车第二大市场、全球最大市场中国的收入略有改善，从2.62亿美元增至2.7亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gm-shares-fall-barra-sees-135349092.html\">Bloomberg</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GM":"通用汽车"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gm-shares-fall-barra-sees-135349092.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171243720","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- General Motors Co. said it expects the production-snarling semiconductor shortage to last into next year, a view that weighed on its stock price even after reporting better-than-expected earnings for the third quarter.\nThe automaker on Wednesday reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.52 for the third quarter, above the 97 cents analyst consensus forecast compiled by Bloomberg. That compares to $2.83 a share a year ago.\nGM said its full-year guidance would come in at the high end of its forecast, but shares erased early gains after the company indicated a computer chip shortfall that has curbed production for months won’t end anytime soon. The muted outlook for chip supplies also implied the fourth quarter could be weaker than expected.\n“It will linger into next year and right now our feeling is that we’ll be in much better shape in the second half of 2022,” Chief Executive Officer Mary Barra said in an interview with Bloomberg Television.\nGM’s shares fell 4.5% to $54.79 as of 9:52 a.m. in New York. The stock had gained 38% this year as of the close on Tuesday.\nHigher Vehicle Prices\nThe flip side of lower production volumes is higher vehicle prices due to depleted inventories. That helped lift GM’s revenue 10% in the first nine months of the year to $93.4 billion.\nThe upbeat earnings came despite a previously announced 33% drop in sales volume for the quarter, stemming from low production at factories and thin inventory at dealers.\nBarra cited pent-up demand for GM’s sport-utility vehicles and trucks, characterizing the chip shortage as a “near-term” issue. She said that GM is working with chipmakers to ensure this type of supply chain glitch isn’t a recurring problem.\n“Our third-quarter 2021 results clearly illustrate the strength of the underlying business that is funding our future, especially when you put them in the context of the calendar year,” Barra said in a letter to shareholders. “As a result, we now believe GM’s full-year results will approach the high end of our guidance.”\nThe Detroit automaker expects adjusted earnings before interest and taxes of $11.5 billion to $13.5 billion in all of 2021, or $5.70 to $6.70 a share. GM’s results were helped by lending profits and a one-time gain from LG Electronics Inc., which agreed to pay GM $1.9 billion for nearly all of the costs of recalling its Chevy Bolt electric vehicle.\nEven though the company raised its earnings target, the new numbers implied that the company will report fourth-quarter pre-tax profit of about $2 billion, which would be below the consensus forecast of $2.6 billion, Credit Suisse said in an analyst note.\nGM Financial Shines\nA bright spot for the company is GM Financial, the company’s growing lending arm. Profits fell slightly in the quarter since GM sales were down, but for the year its adjusted earnings more than doubled to $3.9 billion.\nGM Financial writes the loans for vehicle leases and once they are up, it sells cars at auction to dealers. With used-car prices at record levels, the GM unit was able to profit from the lack of vehicle supply throughout the industry.\nThge automaker’s all-important North American business made half the earnings before interest and taxes that the company brought in a year ago at $2.1 billion. Income from China -- GM’s second-biggest market and the world’s largest -- was slightly better, rising to $270 million from $262 million.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1045,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":852699108,"gmtCreate":1635260304234,"gmtModify":1635260362228,"author":{"id":"3580379447244817","authorId":"3580379447244817","name":"Haw75","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8a435feb2331b895463eca3c73cdb3f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580379447244817","idStr":"3580379447244817"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/852699108","repostId":"1134495823","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1028,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":850459528,"gmtCreate":1634619417304,"gmtModify":1634619484007,"author":{"id":"3580379447244817","authorId":"3580379447244817","name":"Haw75","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8a435feb2331b895463eca3c73cdb3f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580379447244817","idStr":"3580379447244817"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Latest","listText":"Latest","text":"Latest","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850459528","repostId":"1175938781","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175938781","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634614329,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175938781?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-19 11:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Virgin Galactic Is Downgraded to Sell. It Can’t Make Money if It Can’t Launch Its Spaceships.<blockquote>维珍银河评级被下调至卖出。如果它不能发射宇宙飞船，它就赚不到钱。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175938781","media":"Barrons","summary":"Space tourism is a brand-new industry, so growing pains might be expected, but the latest setback at","content":"<p> Space tourism is a brand-new industry, so growing pains might be expected, but the latest setback at&nbsp;Virgin Galactic&nbsp;is causing trouble for investors.</p><p><blockquote>太空旅游是一个全新的行业，因此成长的烦恼可能是意料之中的，但维珍银河最近的挫折给投资者带来了麻烦。</blockquote></p><p> Monday, UBS analyst Myles Walton downgraded Virgin Galactic (ticker: SPCE) to Sell from Hold, lowering his target for the stock price to $15 from $26. Flight delays are the big problem.</p><p><blockquote>周一，瑞银分析师Myles Walton将维珍银河（股票代码：SPCE）的评级从持有下调至卖出，并将股价目标从26美元下调至15美元。航班延误是大问题。</blockquote></p><p> On Friday, Galactic said it was halting flight tests for about nine months while the company entered a period of “vehicle enhancement and modification”—design changes to improve its spaceships. The news was a disappointment for investors who had expected commercial, revenue-generating, operations to start early in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>周五，银河表示将停止飞行测试约九个月，同时该公司进入“飞行器增强和改装”时期——改变设计以改进其航天器。对于原本预计商业创收业务将于2022年初开始的投资者来说，这一消息令人失望。</blockquote></p><p> Galactic stock dropped almost 17% on Friday, falling to $20.01 a share. Shares fell another 1.5% on Monday, after the downgrade. </p><p><blockquote>银河股价周五下跌近17%，跌至每股20.01美元。评级下调后，周一股价又下跌1.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Galactic has hit a rough patch after a strong run. Shares rose almost 94% in the month before the Galactic flight that took Sir Richard Branson into space–the first space tourism flight ever completed–on June 12. Shares continued to rise in the following weeks, hitting $57.51 on June 28, but they are down about 64% since then.</p><p><blockquote>银河在强劲运行后遇到了困难。6月12日，理查德·布兰森爵士(Sir Richard Branson)进入太空的银河飞行（这是有史以来第一次完成的太空旅游飞行）之前的一个月，股价上涨了近94%。随后几周股价持续上涨，6月28日触及57.51美元，但此后下跌约64%。</blockquote></p><p> The next point to watch is the company’s third-quarter earnings conference call, slated for early November. Investors will want some answers about the spaceship redesign, as well as ticket sales. Strong sales could be good news for the stock, but Walton doesn’t believe that would be enough to lift the shares out of their recent funk.</p><p><blockquote>下一个值得关注的点是该公司定于11月初发布的第三季度收益电话会议。投资者会想要一些关于宇宙飞船重新设计以及门票销售的答案。强劲的销售对该股来说可能是个好消息，但沃尔顿认为这不足以使该股摆脱最近的恐慌。</blockquote></p><p> With the downgrade, three of 11 analysts tracking Galactic, or 27%, rate shares at Sell. The average Sell-rating ratio for stocks in the S&amp;P 500 is below 10%. The average analyst price target is about $31 a share, implying gains of about 50% from recent levels, but that $31 is down from a July peak of about $39.</p><p><blockquote>随着评级下调，追踪银河的11名分析师中有3名（27%）将其股票评级为卖出。标普500股票的平均卖出评级比率低于10%。分析师平均目标价约为每股31美元，这意味着较近期水平上涨约50%，但31美元低于7月份约39美元的峰值。</blockquote></p><p> Four analysts, or 36%, rate the stock at Buy, while the remaining four have it at Hold.</p><p><blockquote>四名分析师（即36%）将该股评级为买入，其余四名分析师将该股评级为持有。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Virgin Galactic Is Downgraded to Sell. It Can’t Make Money if It Can’t Launch Its Spaceships.<blockquote>维珍银河评级被下调至卖出。如果它不能发射宇宙飞船，它就赚不到钱。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nVirgin Galactic Is Downgraded to Sell. It Can’t Make Money if It Can’t Launch Its Spaceships.<blockquote>维珍银河评级被下调至卖出。如果它不能发射宇宙飞船，它就赚不到钱。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-19 11:32</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p> Space tourism is a brand-new industry, so growing pains might be expected, but the latest setback at&nbsp;Virgin Galactic&nbsp;is causing trouble for investors.</p><p><blockquote>太空旅游是一个全新的行业，因此成长的烦恼可能是意料之中的，但维珍银河最近的挫折给投资者带来了麻烦。</blockquote></p><p> Monday, UBS analyst Myles Walton downgraded Virgin Galactic (ticker: SPCE) to Sell from Hold, lowering his target for the stock price to $15 from $26. Flight delays are the big problem.</p><p><blockquote>周一，瑞银分析师Myles Walton将维珍银河（股票代码：SPCE）的评级从持有下调至卖出，并将股价目标从26美元下调至15美元。航班延误是大问题。</blockquote></p><p> On Friday, Galactic said it was halting flight tests for about nine months while the company entered a period of “vehicle enhancement and modification”—design changes to improve its spaceships. The news was a disappointment for investors who had expected commercial, revenue-generating, operations to start early in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>周五，银河表示将停止飞行测试约九个月，同时该公司进入“飞行器增强和改装”时期——改变设计以改进其航天器。对于原本预计商业创收业务将于2022年初开始的投资者来说，这一消息令人失望。</blockquote></p><p> Galactic stock dropped almost 17% on Friday, falling to $20.01 a share. Shares fell another 1.5% on Monday, after the downgrade. </p><p><blockquote>银河股价周五下跌近17%，跌至每股20.01美元。评级下调后，周一股价又下跌1.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Galactic has hit a rough patch after a strong run. Shares rose almost 94% in the month before the Galactic flight that took Sir Richard Branson into space–the first space tourism flight ever completed–on June 12. Shares continued to rise in the following weeks, hitting $57.51 on June 28, but they are down about 64% since then.</p><p><blockquote>银河在强劲运行后遇到了困难。6月12日，理查德·布兰森爵士(Sir Richard Branson)进入太空的银河飞行（这是有史以来第一次完成的太空旅游飞行）之前的一个月，股价上涨了近94%。随后几周股价持续上涨，6月28日触及57.51美元，但此后下跌约64%。</blockquote></p><p> The next point to watch is the company’s third-quarter earnings conference call, slated for early November. Investors will want some answers about the spaceship redesign, as well as ticket sales. Strong sales could be good news for the stock, but Walton doesn’t believe that would be enough to lift the shares out of their recent funk.</p><p><blockquote>下一个值得关注的点是该公司定于11月初发布的第三季度收益电话会议。投资者会想要一些关于宇宙飞船重新设计以及门票销售的答案。强劲的销售对该股来说可能是个好消息，但沃尔顿认为这不足以使该股摆脱最近的恐慌。</blockquote></p><p> With the downgrade, three of 11 analysts tracking Galactic, or 27%, rate shares at Sell. The average Sell-rating ratio for stocks in the S&amp;P 500 is below 10%. The average analyst price target is about $31 a share, implying gains of about 50% from recent levels, but that $31 is down from a July peak of about $39.</p><p><blockquote>随着评级下调，追踪银河的11名分析师中有3名（27%）将其股票评级为卖出。标普500股票的平均卖出评级比率低于10%。分析师平均目标价约为每股31美元，这意味着较近期水平上涨约50%，但31美元低于7月份约39美元的峰值。</blockquote></p><p> Four analysts, or 36%, rate the stock at Buy, while the remaining four have it at Hold.</p><p><blockquote>四名分析师（即36%）将该股评级为买入，其余四名分析师将该股评级为持有。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/virgin-galactic-stock-downgraded-delay-51634562346?mod=hp_DAY_8\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPCE":"维珍银河"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/virgin-galactic-stock-downgraded-delay-51634562346?mod=hp_DAY_8","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175938781","content_text":"Space tourism is a brand-new industry, so growing pains might be expected, but the latest setback at Virgin Galactic is causing trouble for investors.\nMonday, UBS analyst Myles Walton downgraded Virgin Galactic (ticker: SPCE) to Sell from Hold, lowering his target for the stock price to $15 from $26. Flight delays are the big problem.\nOn Friday, Galactic said it was halting flight tests for about nine months while the company entered a period of “vehicle enhancement and modification”—design changes to improve its spaceships. The news was a disappointment for investors who had expected commercial, revenue-generating, operations to start early in 2022.\nGalactic stock dropped almost 17% on Friday, falling to $20.01 a share. Shares fell another 1.5% on Monday, after the downgrade. \nGalactic has hit a rough patch after a strong run. Shares rose almost 94% in the month before the Galactic flight that took Sir Richard Branson into space–the first space tourism flight ever completed–on June 12. Shares continued to rise in the following weeks, hitting $57.51 on June 28, but they are down about 64% since then.\nThe next point to watch is the company’s third-quarter earnings conference call, slated for early November. Investors will want some answers about the spaceship redesign, as well as ticket sales. Strong sales could be good news for the stock, but Walton doesn’t believe that would be enough to lift the shares out of their recent funk.\nWith the downgrade, three of 11 analysts tracking Galactic, or 27%, rate shares at Sell. The average Sell-rating ratio for stocks in the S&P 500 is below 10%. The average analyst price target is about $31 a share, implying gains of about 50% from recent levels, but that $31 is down from a July peak of about $39.\nFour analysts, or 36%, rate the stock at Buy, while the remaining four have it at Hold.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPCE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":816,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":173244807,"gmtCreate":1626665577709,"gmtModify":1633925095361,"author":{"id":"3580379447244817","authorId":"3580379447244817","name":"Haw75","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8a435feb2331b895463eca3c73cdb3f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580379447244817","authorIdStr":"3580379447244817"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/173244807","repostId":"1111084715","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":542,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":840794225,"gmtCreate":1635684741609,"gmtModify":1635684741716,"author":{"id":"3580379447244817","authorId":"3580379447244817","name":"Haw75","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8a435feb2331b895463eca3c73cdb3f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580379447244817","authorIdStr":"3580379447244817"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Latest","listText":"Latest","text":"Latest","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/840794225","repostId":"1104228860","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":841,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":852699108,"gmtCreate":1635260304234,"gmtModify":1635260362228,"author":{"id":"3580379447244817","authorId":"3580379447244817","name":"Haw75","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8a435feb2331b895463eca3c73cdb3f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580379447244817","authorIdStr":"3580379447244817"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/852699108","repostId":"1134495823","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1028,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":827956512,"gmtCreate":1634395660621,"gmtModify":1634395660940,"author":{"id":"3580379447244817","authorId":"3580379447244817","name":"Haw75","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8a435feb2331b895463eca3c73cdb3f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580379447244817","authorIdStr":"3580379447244817"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Latest&nbsp;","listText":"Latest&nbsp;","text":"Latest","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/827956512","repostId":"2175146556","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":792,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":814240685,"gmtCreate":1630831666747,"gmtModify":1632905646044,"author":{"id":"3580379447244817","authorId":"3580379447244817","name":"Haw75","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8a435feb2331b895463eca3c73cdb3f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580379447244817","authorIdStr":"3580379447244817"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Latest&nbsp;","listText":"Latest&nbsp;","text":"Latest","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/814240685","repostId":"1157895022","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157895022","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630810619,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1157895022?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-05 10:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Beat the market with this quant system that’s very bullish on stocks at record highs<blockquote>利用这个非常看好历史新高股票的量化系统击败市场</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157895022","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Vance Howard’s HCM Tactical Growth Fund moves you in and out of the stock market when prudent to do ","content":"<p>  <b>Vance Howard’s HCM Tactical Growth Fund moves you in and out of the stock market when prudent to do so. So far his team of computer scientists’ strategy has paid off.</b>  Imagine you had a money-making machine to harvest gains in the stock market while you sat back to enjoy life.</p><p><blockquote><b>万斯·霍华德(Vance Howard)的HCM战术增长基金在谨慎的情况下让您进出股市。到目前为止，他的计算机科学家团队的策略已经得到了回报。</b>想象一下，当你坐下来享受生活时，你有一台赚钱机器在股市中收获收益。</blockquote></p><p> That’s everyone’s dream, right? Investor Vance Howard thinks he’s found it.</p><p><blockquote>那是每个人的梦想，对吧？投资者万斯·霍华德认为他已经找到了。</blockquote></p><p> Howard and his small army of computer programmers atHoward Capital Managementin Roswell, Ga., have a quantitative system that posts great returns.</p><p><blockquote>霍华德和他的一小队计算机程序员在佐治亚州罗斯威尔的资本管理公司工作。，有一个量化系统，张贴巨大的回报。</blockquote></p><p> His HCM Tactical Growth Fund&nbsp;HCMGX,+0.35%beats its Russell 1000&nbsp;benchmark index and large-blend fund category by 8.5-10.4 percentage points annualized over the past five years, according to Morningstar. That is no small feat, and not only because it has to overcome a 2.22% fee. Beating the market is simply not easy. His HCM Dividend Sector PlusHCMQX,-0.05%) and HCM Income PlusHCMLX,+0.30%funds post similar outperformance.</p><p><blockquote>根据晨星公司的数据，他的HCM战术增长基金HCMGX,+0.35%在过去五年中的年化增长率比罗素1000基准指数和大型混合基金类别高出8.5-10.4个百分点。这不是一个小壮举，不仅因为它必须克服2.22%的费用。战胜市场并不容易。他的HCM Dividend Sector PlusHCMQX,-0.05%)和HCM Income PlusHCMLX,+0.30%基金也表现类似。</blockquote></p><p> There are drawbacks, which I detail below. (Among them: Potentially long stretches of underperformance and regular tax bills.) But first, what can we learn from this winner?</p><p><blockquote>有缺点，我在下面详述。（其中包括：潜在的长期表现不佳和定期的税单。）但首先，我们能从这位赢家身上学到什么？</blockquote></p><p> So-called quants never share all the details of their proprietary systems, but Howard shares a lot, as you’ll see. And this Texas rancher has a lot of good advice based on “horse sense” — not surprising, given his infectious passion for the markets, and his three decades of experience as a pro.</p><p><blockquote>所谓的量化分析师从不分享他们专有系统的所有细节，但霍华德分享了很多，正如你将看到的。这位德克萨斯州牧场主有很多基于“马的感觉”的好建议——考虑到他对市场富有感染力的热情，以及他三十年的职业经验，这并不奇怪。</blockquote></p><p> Here are five lessons, 12 exchange traded funds (ETFs) and four stocks to consider, from a recent interview with him.</p><p><blockquote>以下是最近对他的采访中的五个教训、12只交易所交易基金(ETF)和四只值得考虑的股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #1: Don’t be emotional</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第一课：不要情绪化</b></blockquote></p><p> It’s no surprise so many people do poorly in the market. Evolution has programmed us to fail. For survival, we’ve learned to run from things that frightens us. And crave more of things that are pleasurable — like sweets or fats to store calories ahead of what might be a long stretch without food. But in the market, acting on the emotions of fear and greed invariably make us do the wrong thing at the wrong time. Sell at the bottom, buy at the top.</p><p><blockquote>难怪这么多人在市场上表现不佳。进化让我们注定要失败。为了生存，我们学会了逃避让我们害怕的事情。渴望更多令人愉快的东西——比如甜食或脂肪，以便在长时间没有食物之前储存卡路里。但在市场中，对恐惧和贪婪的情绪采取行动总是会让我们在错误的时间做错误的事情。底部卖出，顶部买入。</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, we’re programmed to believe being with the crowd brings safety. If you’re a zebra on the Savanna, you are more likely to get picked off by a predator if you go it alone. The problem here is being part of a crowd — and crowd psychology — dumb us down to a purely emotional level. This is why people in crowds do terrible things they would never do on their own. It doesn’t matter how smart you are. When you join a crowd, you lose a lot of IQ points. Base emotions take over.</p><p><blockquote>同样，我们被设定为相信和人群在一起会带来安全。如果你是稀树草原上的斑马，如果你单干，你更有可能被捕食者吃掉。这里的问题是，成为人群的一部分——以及人群心理——让我们变得愚蠢到纯粹的情感层面。这就是为什么人群中的人会做他们自己永远不会做的可怕的事情。你有多聪明并不重要。当你加入一个人群时，你会失去很多智商点。基本情绪占了上风。</blockquote></p><p> To do well in the market, you have to counteract these tendencies. “One of the biggest mistakes individual investors and money managers make is getting emotional,” says Howard. “Let your emotions go.”</p><p><blockquote>要想在市场上做得好，你必须抵制这些倾向。“个人投资者和基金经理犯的最大错误之一就是变得情绪化，”霍华德说。“放下你的情绪。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #2: Have a system and stick to it</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第二课：有一个系统并坚持下去</b></blockquote></p><p> To exorcise emotion, have a system. “And don’t second guess it,” says Howard. “This keeps you from letting the pandemic or Afghanistan scare you out of the market.” He calls his system the HCM-BuyLine. It is basically a momentum and trend-following system — which often works well in the markets.</p><p><blockquote>驱除情绪，要有一个系统。“不要怀疑它，”霍华德说。“这可以防止你被大流行或阿富汗吓出市场。”他评级了他的系统HCM-购买线。它基本上是一个动量和趋势跟踪系统——通常在市场上运行良好。</blockquote></p><p> The HCM-BuyLine basically works like this. First, rather than use the S&amp;P 500SPX,-0.03%or the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.21%,Howard blends several stock indices to create his own index. Then he uses a moving average that tells him whether the market is in an uptrend or downtrend.</p><p><blockquote>HCM-BuyLine基本上是这样工作的。首先，霍华德没有使用标准普尔500SPX（-0.03%）或道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA（-0.21%），而是混合了几个股票指数来创建自己的指数。然后他使用移动平均线来告诉他市场是处于上升趋势还是下降趋势。</blockquote></p><p> When the moving average drops 3.5%, he sells 35%. If it drops 6.5%, he sells another 35%. He rarely goes to 100% cash.</p><p><blockquote>当移动平均线下跌3.5%时，他卖出35%。如果下跌6.5%，他就再卖出35%。他很少100%现金。</blockquote></p><p> “If the BuyLine is positive, we will stay long no matter what,” he says. “We take all the emotion out of the equation by letting the math decide.”</p><p><blockquote>“如果买入线为正，无论如何我们都会长期持有，”他说。“我们通过让数学来决定，将所有情感从等式中剔除。”</blockquote></p><p> Right now, it’s bullish. (More on this below.)</p><p><blockquote>目前，情况看涨。（更多信息见下文。）</blockquote></p><p> Your system also has to tell you when to get back in.</p><p><blockquote>你的系统还必须告诉你什么时候回去。</blockquote></p><p> “That’s where most people screw up,” he says. “They get out of the market, and they don’t know when to get back in.” The HCM-BuyLine gives a buy signal when his custom index trades above its moving average for six consecutive sessions, and then goes on to trade above the high hit during those six days.</p><p><blockquote>“这就是大多数人搞砸的地方，”他说。“他们退出市场，不知道什么时候才能重新进入。”当他的定制指数连续六个交易日高于其移动平均线时，HCM-买入线会发出买入信号，然后继续高于这六天触及的高点。</blockquote></p><p> You don’t need a system that calls exact market tops or bottoms. Instead, the BuyLine keeps Howard out of down markets 85% of the time, and in for 85% of the good times.</p><p><blockquote>你不需要一个评级精确市场顶部或底部的系统。相反，买入线让霍华德在85%的时间里远离低迷的市场，在85%的好时光里远离。</blockquote></p><p> “If we can do that consistently, we have superior returns and a less stressful life,” he says. “Being all in during a bad tape is no fun.”</p><p><blockquote>“如果我们能够始终如一地做到这一点，我们就会获得更高的回报和更少的生活压力，”他说。“在一盘糟糕的磁带中全力以赴一点也不好玩。”</blockquote></p><p> His system is slow to get him out of the market, but quick to get him back in. Not even a 10% correction will necessarily move him out. He’s often buying those pullbacks. Getting back in fast makes sense, because recoveries off bottoms tend to happen fast.</p><p><blockquote>他的系统让他退出市场很慢，但让他回来很快。即使是10%的修正也不一定能让他出局。他经常买入那些回调。快速反弹是有意义的，因为从底部恢复往往会很快。</blockquote></p><p> “The HCM-BuyLine takes all the emotion out of the process,” says Howard.</p><p><blockquote>“HCM-BuyLine消除了整个过程中的所有情绪，”霍华德说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #3: Don’t fight the tape</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第三课：不要和磁带作对</b></blockquote></p><p> This concept is one of the core pieces of wisdom from Marty Zweig’s classic book, “Winning on Wall Street.”</p><p><blockquote>这一概念是马蒂·茨威格经典著作《在华尔街获胜》中的核心智慧之一。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “You have to stay on the right side of market,” agrees Howard. “If you try to trade long in a bad market, it is painful.”</p><p><blockquote>“你必须站在市场的正确一边，”霍华德表示同意。“如果你试图在糟糕的市场中做多，那是很痛苦的。”</blockquote></p><p> In other words, don’t try to be a hero.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，不要试图成为英雄。</blockquote></p><p> “Sometimes, not losing money is where you want to be,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>“有时候，不赔钱才是你想要的，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, don’t turn cautious just because the market hits new highs — like now. You should love new highs, because it is a sign of market strength that may likely endure.</p><p><blockquote>同样，不要仅仅因为市场创下新高就变得谨慎——就像现在这样。你应该喜欢新高，因为这是市场力量的标志，可能会持续下去。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #4: Keep it simple</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第四课：保持简单</b></blockquote></p><p> As you’ll see below, Howard doesn’t use esoteric instruments such as derivatives, swaps or index options. He doesn’t even trade foreign stocks or currencies. This is refreshing for individual investors, because we have a harder time accessing those tools.</p><p><blockquote>正如您将在下面看到的，霍华德不使用衍生品、掉期或指数期权等深奥工具。他甚至不交易外国股票或货币。这对个人投资者来说令人耳目一新，因为我们更难获得这些工具。</blockquote></p><p> “You don’t have to trade crazy stuff,” he says. “You can trade plain-vanilla ETFs and beat everybody out there.”</p><p><blockquote>“你不必交易疯狂的东西，”他说。“你可以交易普通的ETF并击败所有人。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #5: How to trade the current market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第5课：如何交易当前市场</b></blockquote></p><p> First, be long.</p><p><blockquote>首先，做长。</blockquote></p><p> “The HCM-BuyLine is very positive. We are 100% in,” says Howard. “The market is broadening out. It is getting pretty exciting. We do not see it turn around any time soon. We are buying pullbacks.”</p><p><blockquote>“HCM-购买线非常积极。我们100%参与，”霍华德说。“市场正在扩大。它变得相当令人兴奋。我们认为它不会很快好转。我们正在买入回调。”</blockquote></p><p> One bullish signal is all the cash on the sidelines. “If there is any relief in Covid, we may see a big rally. We may end up with a great fall [season].”</p><p><blockquote>一个看涨信号是所有现金都在观望。“如果新冠疫情有所缓解，我们可能会看到大幅反弹。我们可能会以一个伟大的秋季[季节]结束。”</blockquote></p><p> Howard uses momentum indicators to select stocks and ETFs, too. For sectors he favors the following.</p><p><blockquote>霍华德也使用动量指标来选择股票和ETF。对于行业，他倾向于以下几点。</blockquote></p><p> He likes health care, tradable through the iShares US HealthcareIYH,-0.04%and ProShares Ultra Health CareRXL,+0.12%ETFs. He’s turning more bullish on biotech, which he plays via the iShares Biotechnology ETFIBB,-0.11%.</p><p><blockquote>他喜欢医疗保健，可通过iShares US HealthcareIYH(-0.04%)和ProShares Ultra Health CareRXL(+0.12%)ETF进行交易。他变得更加看好生物技术，他通过iShares Biotechnology ETFIBB进行投资，-0.11%。</blockquote></p><p> He likes consumer discretionary tradable through the iShares US Consumer ServicesIYC,-0.30%,and airlines via US Global JetsJETS,-1.17%.He also likes tech exposure via the Invesco QQQ TrustQQQ,+0.31%,iShares US TechnologyIYW,+0.50%and&nbsp;iShares SemiconductorSOXX,+0.75%.</p><p><blockquote>他喜欢通过iShares US Consumer ServicesIYC(-0.30%)进行交易的非必需消费品，以及通过US Global JetsJETS(-1.17%)进行交易的航空公司。他还喜欢通过Invesco QQQ TrustQQQ(+0.31%)、iShares US TechnologyIYW(+0.50%)进行科技投资和iShares半导体SOXX，+0.75%。</blockquote></p><p> He likes small-caps via the Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index FundVBK,+0.07%.And convertible bonds via SPDR Bloomberg Barclays Convertible SecuritiesCWB,+0.64%and iShares Convertible BondICVT,+0.37%.</p><p><blockquote>他喜欢Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index FundVBK，+0.07%的小盘股。以及SPDR Bloomberg Barclays可转换证券CWB，+0.64%和iShares可转换债券ICVT，+0.37%的可转换债券。</blockquote></p><p> As for individual names, he singles out MicrosoftMSFT,-0.00%and AppleAAPL,+0.42%in tech, as well as Amazon.comAMZN,+0.43%and TeslaTSLA,+0.16%.</p><p><blockquote>至于个人名称，他特别提到了科技股中的微软MSFT(-0.00%)和苹果AAPL(+0.42%)，以及亚马逊MAMZN(+0.43%)和特斯拉TSLA(+0.16%)。</blockquote></p><p> Also consider Howard’s two ETFs: The HCM Defender 100 IndexQQH,+0.62%and HCM Defender 500 IndexLGH,+1.32%.</p><p><blockquote>另请考虑Howard的两只ETF：HCM Defender 100 IndexQQH，+0.62%和HCM Defender 500 IndexLGH，+1.32%。</blockquote></p><p> He prefers to add to holdings on 1%-3% dips.</p><p><blockquote>他更喜欢在下跌1%-3%时增持。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A few drawbacks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一些缺点</b></blockquote></p><p> His HCM Tactical Growth fund has a history of posting two-year stretches of underperformance of 1.5% to 8.8%, since it was launched in 2015. The fund then came roaring back to net the very positive five-year outperformance cited above. Investing in his system can require patience.</p><p><blockquote>他的HCM战术增长基金自2015年推出以来，曾连续两年表现不佳，涨幅为1.5%至8.8%。随后，该基金卷土重来，实现了上述非常积极的五年优异表现。投资他的系统需要耐心。</blockquote></p><p> Every manager, including Warren Buffett, can have a stretch of underperformance, says Howard.</p><p><blockquote>霍华德说，每个经理人，包括沃伦·巴菲特，都可能有一段时间表现不佳。</blockquote></p><p> “We are in the odds game,” he says. “Even in the odds game, you can have a bad hand or two thrown at you.”</p><p><blockquote>“我们正处于赔率游戏中，”他说。“即使在赔率游戏中，你也可能会遇到一两手糟糕的牌。”</blockquote></p><p> Another challenge is the high turnover, which is 140% a year for Tactical Growth. This means Uncle Sam takes a big cut in the good years. So if you buy Howard’s funds, you may want to do so in a tax-protected account.</p><p><blockquote>另一个挑战是高流动率，战术增长每年140%。这意味着山姆大叔在好年景中会得到很大的提成。因此，如果您购买霍华德的基金，您可能希望在避税账户中购买。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Beat the market with this quant system that’s very bullish on stocks at record highs<blockquote>利用这个非常看好历史新高股票的量化系统击败市场</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBeat the market with this quant system that’s very bullish on stocks at record highs<blockquote>利用这个非常看好历史新高股票的量化系统击败市场</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-05 10:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>Vance Howard’s HCM Tactical Growth Fund moves you in and out of the stock market when prudent to do so. So far his team of computer scientists’ strategy has paid off.</b>  Imagine you had a money-making machine to harvest gains in the stock market while you sat back to enjoy life.</p><p><blockquote><b>万斯·霍华德(Vance Howard)的HCM战术增长基金在谨慎的情况下让您进出股市。到目前为止，他的计算机科学家团队的策略已经得到了回报。</b>想象一下，当你坐下来享受生活时，你有一台赚钱机器在股市中收获收益。</blockquote></p><p> That’s everyone’s dream, right? Investor Vance Howard thinks he’s found it.</p><p><blockquote>那是每个人的梦想，对吧？投资者万斯·霍华德认为他已经找到了。</blockquote></p><p> Howard and his small army of computer programmers atHoward Capital Managementin Roswell, Ga., have a quantitative system that posts great returns.</p><p><blockquote>霍华德和他的一小队计算机程序员在佐治亚州罗斯威尔的资本管理公司工作。，有一个量化系统，张贴巨大的回报。</blockquote></p><p> His HCM Tactical Growth Fund&nbsp;HCMGX,+0.35%beats its Russell 1000&nbsp;benchmark index and large-blend fund category by 8.5-10.4 percentage points annualized over the past five years, according to Morningstar. That is no small feat, and not only because it has to overcome a 2.22% fee. Beating the market is simply not easy. His HCM Dividend Sector PlusHCMQX,-0.05%) and HCM Income PlusHCMLX,+0.30%funds post similar outperformance.</p><p><blockquote>根据晨星公司的数据，他的HCM战术增长基金HCMGX,+0.35%在过去五年中的年化增长率比罗素1000基准指数和大型混合基金类别高出8.5-10.4个百分点。这不是一个小壮举，不仅因为它必须克服2.22%的费用。战胜市场并不容易。他的HCM Dividend Sector PlusHCMQX,-0.05%)和HCM Income PlusHCMLX,+0.30%基金也表现类似。</blockquote></p><p> There are drawbacks, which I detail below. (Among them: Potentially long stretches of underperformance and regular tax bills.) But first, what can we learn from this winner?</p><p><blockquote>有缺点，我在下面详述。（其中包括：潜在的长期表现不佳和定期的税单。）但首先，我们能从这位赢家身上学到什么？</blockquote></p><p> So-called quants never share all the details of their proprietary systems, but Howard shares a lot, as you’ll see. And this Texas rancher has a lot of good advice based on “horse sense” — not surprising, given his infectious passion for the markets, and his three decades of experience as a pro.</p><p><blockquote>所谓的量化分析师从不分享他们专有系统的所有细节，但霍华德分享了很多，正如你将看到的。这位德克萨斯州牧场主有很多基于“马的感觉”的好建议——考虑到他对市场富有感染力的热情，以及他三十年的职业经验，这并不奇怪。</blockquote></p><p> Here are five lessons, 12 exchange traded funds (ETFs) and four stocks to consider, from a recent interview with him.</p><p><blockquote>以下是最近对他的采访中的五个教训、12只交易所交易基金(ETF)和四只值得考虑的股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #1: Don’t be emotional</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第一课：不要情绪化</b></blockquote></p><p> It’s no surprise so many people do poorly in the market. Evolution has programmed us to fail. For survival, we’ve learned to run from things that frightens us. And crave more of things that are pleasurable — like sweets or fats to store calories ahead of what might be a long stretch without food. But in the market, acting on the emotions of fear and greed invariably make us do the wrong thing at the wrong time. Sell at the bottom, buy at the top.</p><p><blockquote>难怪这么多人在市场上表现不佳。进化让我们注定要失败。为了生存，我们学会了逃避让我们害怕的事情。渴望更多令人愉快的东西——比如甜食或脂肪，以便在长时间没有食物之前储存卡路里。但在市场中，对恐惧和贪婪的情绪采取行动总是会让我们在错误的时间做错误的事情。底部卖出，顶部买入。</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, we’re programmed to believe being with the crowd brings safety. If you’re a zebra on the Savanna, you are more likely to get picked off by a predator if you go it alone. The problem here is being part of a crowd — and crowd psychology — dumb us down to a purely emotional level. This is why people in crowds do terrible things they would never do on their own. It doesn’t matter how smart you are. When you join a crowd, you lose a lot of IQ points. Base emotions take over.</p><p><blockquote>同样，我们被设定为相信和人群在一起会带来安全。如果你是稀树草原上的斑马，如果你单干，你更有可能被捕食者吃掉。这里的问题是，成为人群的一部分——以及人群心理——让我们变得愚蠢到纯粹的情感层面。这就是为什么人群中的人会做他们自己永远不会做的可怕的事情。你有多聪明并不重要。当你加入一个人群时，你会失去很多智商点。基本情绪占了上风。</blockquote></p><p> To do well in the market, you have to counteract these tendencies. “One of the biggest mistakes individual investors and money managers make is getting emotional,” says Howard. “Let your emotions go.”</p><p><blockquote>要想在市场上做得好，你必须抵制这些倾向。“个人投资者和基金经理犯的最大错误之一就是变得情绪化，”霍华德说。“放下你的情绪。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #2: Have a system and stick to it</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第二课：有一个系统并坚持下去</b></blockquote></p><p> To exorcise emotion, have a system. “And don’t second guess it,” says Howard. “This keeps you from letting the pandemic or Afghanistan scare you out of the market.” He calls his system the HCM-BuyLine. It is basically a momentum and trend-following system — which often works well in the markets.</p><p><blockquote>驱除情绪，要有一个系统。“不要怀疑它，”霍华德说。“这可以防止你被大流行或阿富汗吓出市场。”他评级了他的系统HCM-购买线。它基本上是一个动量和趋势跟踪系统——通常在市场上运行良好。</blockquote></p><p> The HCM-BuyLine basically works like this. First, rather than use the S&amp;P 500SPX,-0.03%or the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.21%,Howard blends several stock indices to create his own index. Then he uses a moving average that tells him whether the market is in an uptrend or downtrend.</p><p><blockquote>HCM-BuyLine基本上是这样工作的。首先，霍华德没有使用标准普尔500SPX（-0.03%）或道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA（-0.21%），而是混合了几个股票指数来创建自己的指数。然后他使用移动平均线来告诉他市场是处于上升趋势还是下降趋势。</blockquote></p><p> When the moving average drops 3.5%, he sells 35%. If it drops 6.5%, he sells another 35%. He rarely goes to 100% cash.</p><p><blockquote>当移动平均线下跌3.5%时，他卖出35%。如果下跌6.5%，他就再卖出35%。他很少100%现金。</blockquote></p><p> “If the BuyLine is positive, we will stay long no matter what,” he says. “We take all the emotion out of the equation by letting the math decide.”</p><p><blockquote>“如果买入线为正，无论如何我们都会长期持有，”他说。“我们通过让数学来决定，将所有情感从等式中剔除。”</blockquote></p><p> Right now, it’s bullish. (More on this below.)</p><p><blockquote>目前，情况看涨。（更多信息见下文。）</blockquote></p><p> Your system also has to tell you when to get back in.</p><p><blockquote>你的系统还必须告诉你什么时候回去。</blockquote></p><p> “That’s where most people screw up,” he says. “They get out of the market, and they don’t know when to get back in.” The HCM-BuyLine gives a buy signal when his custom index trades above its moving average for six consecutive sessions, and then goes on to trade above the high hit during those six days.</p><p><blockquote>“这就是大多数人搞砸的地方，”他说。“他们退出市场，不知道什么时候才能重新进入。”当他的定制指数连续六个交易日高于其移动平均线时，HCM-买入线会发出买入信号，然后继续高于这六天触及的高点。</blockquote></p><p> You don’t need a system that calls exact market tops or bottoms. Instead, the BuyLine keeps Howard out of down markets 85% of the time, and in for 85% of the good times.</p><p><blockquote>你不需要一个评级精确市场顶部或底部的系统。相反，买入线让霍华德在85%的时间里远离低迷的市场，在85%的好时光里远离。</blockquote></p><p> “If we can do that consistently, we have superior returns and a less stressful life,” he says. “Being all in during a bad tape is no fun.”</p><p><blockquote>“如果我们能够始终如一地做到这一点，我们就会获得更高的回报和更少的生活压力，”他说。“在一盘糟糕的磁带中全力以赴一点也不好玩。”</blockquote></p><p> His system is slow to get him out of the market, but quick to get him back in. Not even a 10% correction will necessarily move him out. He’s often buying those pullbacks. Getting back in fast makes sense, because recoveries off bottoms tend to happen fast.</p><p><blockquote>他的系统让他退出市场很慢，但让他回来很快。即使是10%的修正也不一定能让他出局。他经常买入那些回调。快速反弹是有意义的，因为从底部恢复往往会很快。</blockquote></p><p> “The HCM-BuyLine takes all the emotion out of the process,” says Howard.</p><p><blockquote>“HCM-BuyLine消除了整个过程中的所有情绪，”霍华德说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #3: Don’t fight the tape</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第三课：不要和磁带作对</b></blockquote></p><p> This concept is one of the core pieces of wisdom from Marty Zweig’s classic book, “Winning on Wall Street.”</p><p><blockquote>这一概念是马蒂·茨威格经典著作《在华尔街获胜》中的核心智慧之一。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “You have to stay on the right side of market,” agrees Howard. “If you try to trade long in a bad market, it is painful.”</p><p><blockquote>“你必须站在市场的正确一边，”霍华德表示同意。“如果你试图在糟糕的市场中做多，那是很痛苦的。”</blockquote></p><p> In other words, don’t try to be a hero.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，不要试图成为英雄。</blockquote></p><p> “Sometimes, not losing money is where you want to be,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>“有时候，不赔钱才是你想要的，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, don’t turn cautious just because the market hits new highs — like now. You should love new highs, because it is a sign of market strength that may likely endure.</p><p><blockquote>同样，不要仅仅因为市场创下新高就变得谨慎——就像现在这样。你应该喜欢新高，因为这是市场力量的标志，可能会持续下去。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #4: Keep it simple</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第四课：保持简单</b></blockquote></p><p> As you’ll see below, Howard doesn’t use esoteric instruments such as derivatives, swaps or index options. He doesn’t even trade foreign stocks or currencies. This is refreshing for individual investors, because we have a harder time accessing those tools.</p><p><blockquote>正如您将在下面看到的，霍华德不使用衍生品、掉期或指数期权等深奥工具。他甚至不交易外国股票或货币。这对个人投资者来说令人耳目一新，因为我们更难获得这些工具。</blockquote></p><p> “You don’t have to trade crazy stuff,” he says. “You can trade plain-vanilla ETFs and beat everybody out there.”</p><p><blockquote>“你不必交易疯狂的东西，”他说。“你可以交易普通的ETF并击败所有人。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #5: How to trade the current market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第5课：如何交易当前市场</b></blockquote></p><p> First, be long.</p><p><blockquote>首先，做长。</blockquote></p><p> “The HCM-BuyLine is very positive. We are 100% in,” says Howard. “The market is broadening out. It is getting pretty exciting. We do not see it turn around any time soon. We are buying pullbacks.”</p><p><blockquote>“HCM-购买线非常积极。我们100%参与，”霍华德说。“市场正在扩大。它变得相当令人兴奋。我们认为它不会很快好转。我们正在买入回调。”</blockquote></p><p> One bullish signal is all the cash on the sidelines. “If there is any relief in Covid, we may see a big rally. We may end up with a great fall [season].”</p><p><blockquote>一个看涨信号是所有现金都在观望。“如果新冠疫情有所缓解，我们可能会看到大幅反弹。我们可能会以一个伟大的秋季[季节]结束。”</blockquote></p><p> Howard uses momentum indicators to select stocks and ETFs, too. For sectors he favors the following.</p><p><blockquote>霍华德也使用动量指标来选择股票和ETF。对于行业，他倾向于以下几点。</blockquote></p><p> He likes health care, tradable through the iShares US HealthcareIYH,-0.04%and ProShares Ultra Health CareRXL,+0.12%ETFs. He’s turning more bullish on biotech, which he plays via the iShares Biotechnology ETFIBB,-0.11%.</p><p><blockquote>他喜欢医疗保健，可通过iShares US HealthcareIYH(-0.04%)和ProShares Ultra Health CareRXL(+0.12%)ETF进行交易。他变得更加看好生物技术，他通过iShares Biotechnology ETFIBB进行投资，-0.11%。</blockquote></p><p> He likes consumer discretionary tradable through the iShares US Consumer ServicesIYC,-0.30%,and airlines via US Global JetsJETS,-1.17%.He also likes tech exposure via the Invesco QQQ TrustQQQ,+0.31%,iShares US TechnologyIYW,+0.50%and&nbsp;iShares SemiconductorSOXX,+0.75%.</p><p><blockquote>他喜欢通过iShares US Consumer ServicesIYC(-0.30%)进行交易的非必需消费品，以及通过US Global JetsJETS(-1.17%)进行交易的航空公司。他还喜欢通过Invesco QQQ TrustQQQ(+0.31%)、iShares US TechnologyIYW(+0.50%)进行科技投资和iShares半导体SOXX，+0.75%。</blockquote></p><p> He likes small-caps via the Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index FundVBK,+0.07%.And convertible bonds via SPDR Bloomberg Barclays Convertible SecuritiesCWB,+0.64%and iShares Convertible BondICVT,+0.37%.</p><p><blockquote>他喜欢Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index FundVBK，+0.07%的小盘股。以及SPDR Bloomberg Barclays可转换证券CWB，+0.64%和iShares可转换债券ICVT，+0.37%的可转换债券。</blockquote></p><p> As for individual names, he singles out MicrosoftMSFT,-0.00%and AppleAAPL,+0.42%in tech, as well as Amazon.comAMZN,+0.43%and TeslaTSLA,+0.16%.</p><p><blockquote>至于个人名称，他特别提到了科技股中的微软MSFT(-0.00%)和苹果AAPL(+0.42%)，以及亚马逊MAMZN(+0.43%)和特斯拉TSLA(+0.16%)。</blockquote></p><p> Also consider Howard’s two ETFs: The HCM Defender 100 IndexQQH,+0.62%and HCM Defender 500 IndexLGH,+1.32%.</p><p><blockquote>另请考虑Howard的两只ETF：HCM Defender 100 IndexQQH，+0.62%和HCM Defender 500 IndexLGH，+1.32%。</blockquote></p><p> He prefers to add to holdings on 1%-3% dips.</p><p><blockquote>他更喜欢在下跌1%-3%时增持。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A few drawbacks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一些缺点</b></blockquote></p><p> His HCM Tactical Growth fund has a history of posting two-year stretches of underperformance of 1.5% to 8.8%, since it was launched in 2015. The fund then came roaring back to net the very positive five-year outperformance cited above. Investing in his system can require patience.</p><p><blockquote>他的HCM战术增长基金自2015年推出以来，曾连续两年表现不佳，涨幅为1.5%至8.8%。随后，该基金卷土重来，实现了上述非常积极的五年优异表现。投资他的系统需要耐心。</blockquote></p><p> Every manager, including Warren Buffett, can have a stretch of underperformance, says Howard.</p><p><blockquote>霍华德说，每个经理人，包括沃伦·巴菲特，都可能有一段时间表现不佳。</blockquote></p><p> “We are in the odds game,” he says. “Even in the odds game, you can have a bad hand or two thrown at you.”</p><p><blockquote>“我们正处于赔率游戏中，”他说。“即使在赔率游戏中，你也可能会遇到一两手糟糕的牌。”</blockquote></p><p> Another challenge is the high turnover, which is 140% a year for Tactical Growth. This means Uncle Sam takes a big cut in the good years. So if you buy Howard’s funds, you may want to do so in a tax-protected account.</p><p><blockquote>另一个挑战是高流动率，战术增长每年140%。这意味着山姆大叔在好年景中会得到很大的提成。因此，如果您购买霍华德的基金，您可能希望在避税账户中购买。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/beat-the-market-with-this-quant-system-thats-very-bullish-on-stocks-at-record-highs-11630761531?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/beat-the-market-with-this-quant-system-thats-very-bullish-on-stocks-at-record-highs-11630761531?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157895022","content_text":"Vance Howard’s HCM Tactical Growth Fund moves you in and out of the stock market when prudent to do so. So far his team of computer scientists’ strategy has paid off.\n\nImagine you had a money-making machine to harvest gains in the stock market while you sat back to enjoy life.\nThat’s everyone’s dream, right? Investor Vance Howard thinks he’s found it.\nHoward and his small army of computer programmers atHoward Capital Managementin Roswell, Ga., have a quantitative system that posts great returns.\nHis HCM Tactical Growth Fund HCMGX,+0.35%beats its Russell 1000 benchmark index and large-blend fund category by 8.5-10.4 percentage points annualized over the past five years, according to Morningstar. That is no small feat, and not only because it has to overcome a 2.22% fee. Beating the market is simply not easy. His HCM Dividend Sector PlusHCMQX,-0.05%) and HCM Income PlusHCMLX,+0.30%funds post similar outperformance.\nThere are drawbacks, which I detail below. (Among them: Potentially long stretches of underperformance and regular tax bills.) But first, what can we learn from this winner?\nSo-called quants never share all the details of their proprietary systems, but Howard shares a lot, as you’ll see. And this Texas rancher has a lot of good advice based on “horse sense” — not surprising, given his infectious passion for the markets, and his three decades of experience as a pro.\nHere are five lessons, 12 exchange traded funds (ETFs) and four stocks to consider, from a recent interview with him.\nLesson #1: Don’t be emotional\nIt’s no surprise so many people do poorly in the market. Evolution has programmed us to fail. For survival, we’ve learned to run from things that frightens us. And crave more of things that are pleasurable — like sweets or fats to store calories ahead of what might be a long stretch without food. But in the market, acting on the emotions of fear and greed invariably make us do the wrong thing at the wrong time. Sell at the bottom, buy at the top.\nLikewise, we’re programmed to believe being with the crowd brings safety. If you’re a zebra on the Savanna, you are more likely to get picked off by a predator if you go it alone. The problem here is being part of a crowd — and crowd psychology — dumb us down to a purely emotional level. This is why people in crowds do terrible things they would never do on their own. It doesn’t matter how smart you are. When you join a crowd, you lose a lot of IQ points. Base emotions take over.\nTo do well in the market, you have to counteract these tendencies. “One of the biggest mistakes individual investors and money managers make is getting emotional,” says Howard. “Let your emotions go.”\nLesson #2: Have a system and stick to it\nTo exorcise emotion, have a system. “And don’t second guess it,” says Howard. “This keeps you from letting the pandemic or Afghanistan scare you out of the market.” He calls his system the HCM-BuyLine. It is basically a momentum and trend-following system — which often works well in the markets.\nThe HCM-BuyLine basically works like this. First, rather than use the S&P 500SPX,-0.03%or the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.21%,Howard blends several stock indices to create his own index. Then he uses a moving average that tells him whether the market is in an uptrend or downtrend.\nWhen the moving average drops 3.5%, he sells 35%. If it drops 6.5%, he sells another 35%. He rarely goes to 100% cash.\n“If the BuyLine is positive, we will stay long no matter what,” he says. “We take all the emotion out of the equation by letting the math decide.”\nRight now, it’s bullish. (More on this below.)\nYour system also has to tell you when to get back in.\n“That’s where most people screw up,” he says. “They get out of the market, and they don’t know when to get back in.” The HCM-BuyLine gives a buy signal when his custom index trades above its moving average for six consecutive sessions, and then goes on to trade above the high hit during those six days.\nYou don’t need a system that calls exact market tops or bottoms. Instead, the BuyLine keeps Howard out of down markets 85% of the time, and in for 85% of the good times.\n“If we can do that consistently, we have superior returns and a less stressful life,” he says. “Being all in during a bad tape is no fun.”\nHis system is slow to get him out of the market, but quick to get him back in. Not even a 10% correction will necessarily move him out. He’s often buying those pullbacks. Getting back in fast makes sense, because recoveries off bottoms tend to happen fast.\n“The HCM-BuyLine takes all the emotion out of the process,” says Howard.\nLesson #3: Don’t fight the tape\nThis concept is one of the core pieces of wisdom from Marty Zweig’s classic book, “Winning on Wall Street.”\n“You have to stay on the right side of market,” agrees Howard. “If you try to trade long in a bad market, it is painful.”\nIn other words, don’t try to be a hero.\n“Sometimes, not losing money is where you want to be,” he says.\nLikewise, don’t turn cautious just because the market hits new highs — like now. You should love new highs, because it is a sign of market strength that may likely endure.\nLesson #4: Keep it simple\nAs you’ll see below, Howard doesn’t use esoteric instruments such as derivatives, swaps or index options. He doesn’t even trade foreign stocks or currencies. This is refreshing for individual investors, because we have a harder time accessing those tools.\n“You don’t have to trade crazy stuff,” he says. “You can trade plain-vanilla ETFs and beat everybody out there.”\nLesson #5: How to trade the current market\nFirst, be long.\n“The HCM-BuyLine is very positive. We are 100% in,” says Howard. “The market is broadening out. It is getting pretty exciting. We do not see it turn around any time soon. We are buying pullbacks.”\nOne bullish signal is all the cash on the sidelines. “If there is any relief in Covid, we may see a big rally. We may end up with a great fall [season].”\nHoward uses momentum indicators to select stocks and ETFs, too. For sectors he favors the following.\nHe likes health care, tradable through the iShares US HealthcareIYH,-0.04%and ProShares Ultra Health CareRXL,+0.12%ETFs. He’s turning more bullish on biotech, which he plays via the iShares Biotechnology ETFIBB,-0.11%.\nHe likes consumer discretionary tradable through the iShares US Consumer ServicesIYC,-0.30%,and airlines via US Global JetsJETS,-1.17%.He also likes tech exposure via the Invesco QQQ TrustQQQ,+0.31%,iShares US TechnologyIYW,+0.50%and iShares SemiconductorSOXX,+0.75%.\nHe likes small-caps via the Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index FundVBK,+0.07%.And convertible bonds via SPDR Bloomberg Barclays Convertible SecuritiesCWB,+0.64%and iShares Convertible BondICVT,+0.37%.\nAs for individual names, he singles out MicrosoftMSFT,-0.00%and AppleAAPL,+0.42%in tech, as well as Amazon.comAMZN,+0.43%and TeslaTSLA,+0.16%.\nAlso consider Howard’s two ETFs: The HCM Defender 100 IndexQQH,+0.62%and HCM Defender 500 IndexLGH,+1.32%.\nHe prefers to add to holdings on 1%-3% dips.\nA few drawbacks\nHis HCM Tactical Growth fund has a history of posting two-year stretches of underperformance of 1.5% to 8.8%, since it was launched in 2015. The fund then came roaring back to net the very positive five-year outperformance cited above. Investing in his system can require patience.\nEvery manager, including Warren Buffett, can have a stretch of underperformance, says Howard.\n“We are in the odds game,” he says. “Even in the odds game, you can have a bad hand or two thrown at you.”\nAnother challenge is the high turnover, which is 140% a year for Tactical Growth. This means Uncle Sam takes a big cut in the good years. So if you buy Howard’s funds, you may want to do so in a tax-protected account.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":555,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":833874314,"gmtCreate":1629226706038,"gmtModify":1633686445328,"author":{"id":"3580379447244817","authorId":"3580379447244817","name":"Haw75","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8a435feb2331b895463eca3c73cdb3f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580379447244817","authorIdStr":"3580379447244817"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Latest&nbsp;","listText":"Latest&nbsp;","text":"Latest","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/833874314","repostId":"1115558959","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":371,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":839814720,"gmtCreate":1629142234460,"gmtModify":1633687130807,"author":{"id":"3580379447244817","authorId":"3580379447244817","name":"Haw75","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8a435feb2331b895463eca3c73cdb3f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580379447244817","authorIdStr":"3580379447244817"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Latest&nbsp;","listText":"Latest&nbsp;","text":"Latest","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/839814720","repostId":"2159248377","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":553,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":897130890,"gmtCreate":1628898188310,"gmtModify":1633688729028,"author":{"id":"3580379447244817","authorId":"3580379447244817","name":"Haw75","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8a435feb2331b895463eca3c73cdb3f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580379447244817","authorIdStr":"3580379447244817"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Latest","listText":"Latest","text":"Latest","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/897130890","repostId":"1196882604","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196882604","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628898125,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1196882604?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-14 07:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: 7 Interesting Things From The Q2 2021 Earnings Call<blockquote>Palantir：2021年第二季度收益看涨期权中的7件有趣的事情</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196882604","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nFirst, I briefly review the big news and highlights from PLTR's Q2 2021 business update.\nSe","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>First, I briefly review the big news and highlights from PLTR's Q2 2021 business update.</li>  <li>Second, I cover some of the details that are less well-known, including comments made by leadership on the earnings call.</li>  <li>Third, dive into some important details about Alex Karp's compensation, including his insider selling activity; leadership had a response prepared.</li>  <li>Lastly, I visit several metrics on my radar, including stock-based compensation, contribution margin, and deal value.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/028b3e3b1d2c99f3ee26f213c2fc069f\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>zirconicusso/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>首先，我简要回顾一下PLTR 2021年第二季度业务更新中的重大新闻和亮点。</li><li>其次，我介绍了一些鲜为人知的细节，包括领导层对收益看涨期权的评论。</li><li>第三，深入了解亚历克斯·卡普薪酬的一些重要细节，包括他的内幕销售活动；领导层已经准备好了回应。</li><li>最后，我访问了我关注的几个指标，包括基于股票的薪酬、边际贡献和交易价值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>zirconicusso/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It's likely that you've already heard the news that Palantir (PLTR) just reported astrong Q2 2021. I'm certain there will be plenty of coverage of the empirical results, including the tremendous growth and&nbsp;increased cash flow outlook.</p><p><blockquote>您可能已经听说Palantir(PLTR)刚刚报告了2021年第二季度业绩强劲的消息。我确信将会有大量的实证结果报道，包括巨大的增长和增加的现金流前景。</blockquote></p><p> Here, I'll just highlight those numbers then I'll turn to a few things that came up directly on the earnings call that surprised me.</p><p><blockquote>在这里，我将重点介绍这些数字，然后我将转向收益看涨期权上直接出现的一些让我感到惊讶的事情。</blockquote></p><p> First, revenue was up 49%, beating the estimates. it's notable that commercial revenue was up an eye-popping 90%, because it's an area that bears have complained about. This mostly squashes the idea that PLTR is only driven by secret government contracts.</p><p><blockquote>首先，收入增长49%，超出预期。值得注意的是，商业收入增长了令人瞠目结舌的90%，因为这是看空者抱怨的领域。这在很大程度上粉碎了PLTR仅由秘密政府合同驱动的想法。</blockquote></p><p> Second, PLTR closed a ton of deals in Q2. Specifically, they scored 62 deals worth $1 million or more. I like this view:</p><p><blockquote>其次，PLTR在第二季度完成了大量交易。具体来说，他们达成了62笔价值100万美元或以上的交易。我喜欢这个观点：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37ecc00151018d803161b75c01bb4571\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Palantir Q2 2021 Business Update</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 2021年第二季度业务更新</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Of course, the YoY remaining deal value is interesting but I like the blunt look into the deal size, with&nbsp;<i>30 deals over $5 million and 21 deals over $10 million</i>, because it indicates an ever-spreading reach of customers. That's exactly what's required to drive long-term revenue growth, but also stability.</p><p><blockquote>当然，同比剩余交易价值很有趣，但我喜欢直率地看待交易规模，<i>30笔交易超过500万美元，21笔交易超过1000万美元</i>，因为它表明客户范围不断扩大。这正是推动长期收入增长和稳定性所需要的。</blockquote></p><p> Third, it's looking like Q3 is going to work out fairly well. Sales are projected to be about $5 million great than consensus. And, as I've already mentioned, PLTR raised its free cash flow outlook. To be clear, the jump is rather big, going from greater than $150 million to now greater than $300 million.</p><p><blockquote>第三，看起来第三季度的表现会相当不错。销售额预计比预期高出约500万美元。而且，正如我已经提到的，PLTR提高了自由现金流前景。需要明确的是，增幅相当大，从超过1.5亿美元增加到现在的超过3亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> I didn't see or hear much about changes in annual revenue growth, but one thing is crystal clear -<i>I do not expect growth to slow down</i>. And, per the presentation and earnings call, growth is expected at 30% or more this year, and then through 2025.</p><p><blockquote>我没有看到或听到太多关于年收入增长的变化，但有一点是非常清楚的——<i>我预计增长不会放缓</i>.而且，根据演示和收益看涨期权，预计今年的增长率将达到30%或更高，然后到2025年。</blockquote></p><p> Interestingly, revenue grew by 49% in Q1 YoY, generating $341 between government and commercial. And now, in Q2, revenue grew by 49% YoY to $376 million. That's two quarters in a row at 49%. It's for this reason that I stick by&nbsp;what I previously wrote about PLTR sandbagging:</p><p><blockquote>有趣的是，第一季度的收入同比增长了49%，政府和商业收入为341美元。现在，第二季度收入同比增长49%，达到3.76亿美元。这是连续两个季度达到49%。正是出于这个原因，我坚持我之前写的关于PLTR沙袋的内容：</blockquote></p><p>   In other words, when we start with $800 million for 2021, it's pretty obvious that the 30% growth doesn't cut it. We cannot reach $4 billion by 2025 with \"only\" 30% growth. PLTR is perhapss&nbsp;andbagging&nbsp;to keep expectations lower. It's hard to know for sure. It could also be that they expect faster growth in 2022 through 2025.  I'll have to dive in deeper in a future article to see exactly how current and future growth projections line up against the hard numbers that have come in. For now, my point is simply that they've set the bar at a reasonable albeit conservative level and seeing beats like this is not too shocking, but also encouraging.<i>They're managing Wall Street and the analysts fairly well.</i></p><p><blockquote>换句话说，当我们从2021年的8亿美元开始时，很明显30%的增长并不能削减它。如果“仅”增长30%，我们不可能在2025年达到40亿美元。PLTR可能会降低预期。很难确定。也可能是他们预计2022年至2025年的增长会更快。我将不得不在未来的文章中更深入地探讨当前和未来的增长预测与已经出现的硬数据之间的确切关系。就目前而言，我的观点很简单，他们已经将标准设定在一个合理但保守的水平，看到这样的节拍并不太令人震惊，但也令人鼓舞。<i>他们对华尔街和分析师的管理相当好。</i></blockquote></p><p> Fourth, in addition to new customer acquisition, the revenue dollar value for PLTR's top 20 customers continues to march upward.</p><p><blockquote>第四，除了新客户获取外，PLTR前20名客户的收入美元价值持续上升。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fba540de7f84e50e602dc943d5e985f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Palantir Q2 2021 Business Update</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 2021年第二季度业务更新</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If it's not completely obvious, this is worth watching since it gives us some confidence that<i>customers are happy and they are sticking</i>. It's not a perfect indicator, but it's still pretty good since unhappy customers aren't going to keep paying PLTR, over and over. Other companies have a tendency to either focus too much on milking current \"cash cow\" customers or getting hyper aggressive about new customers. In the Q2 2021 update, we're seeing a great flow of new customers and then this indicator of growing long-term customer value. It's a delicate but critical balance. I'll continue to watch this in Q3.</p><p><blockquote>如果不是很明显，这是值得关注的，因为它给了我们一些信心<i>顾客很高兴，他们坚持下去</i>.这不是一个完美的指标，但它仍然很好，因为不满意的客户不会一遍又一遍地继续支付PLTR。其他公司倾向于要么过于关注榨取现有的“摇钱树”客户，要么对新客户过于咄咄逼人。在2021年第二季度的更新中，我们看到了大量的新客户，然后是长期客户价值不断增长的指标。这是一种微妙但关键的平衡。我会在第三季度继续看这个。</blockquote></p><p> Fifth,in Q1, we heard about \"Day Zero\" customers. Here's a taste:</p><p><blockquote>第五，在第一季度，我们听说了“零日”客户。这里有一个味道：</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   We are seeing opportunities for companies to build their digital infrastructure around foundry from day zero, where they can shave years off their ramps and mountains of risk off their roadmaps by cost efficiently standing on the shoulders of 15 years and more than $2 billion of R&amp;D. And we see this as the first salvo in expanding distribution of foundry to broader markets and a broader set of customers.  In Q2, PLTR leadership continued to push this theme, highlighting Roivant, Celularity and Wejo, for example. The idea is to get these companies using Foundry while they are just getting started, or otherwise very small. They're treating Foundry as the \"operating system\" of these businesses.</p><p><blockquote>我们看到了公司从第一天起就围绕foundry构建数字基础设施的机会，他们可以通过经济高效地站在15年和超过20亿美元的R&amp;D的肩膀上，减少数年的坡道和路线图上的风险。我们认为这是将foundry分销扩展到更广泛的市场和更广泛的客户的第一枪。在第二季度，PLTR领导层继续推动这一主题，例如强调Roivant、Celularity和Wejo。这个想法是让这些公司在刚刚起步或非常小的时候使用Foundry。他们将代工视为这些业务的“操作系统”。</blockquote></p><p> Supporting this thrust,<i>PLTR added another 60 sales hires</i>. If I recall correctly, they hired about 50 sales people in Q1, so they are steadily adding headcount in sales and marketing, without going gangbusters. That said, their pipeline is accelerating, with active commercial pilots up 26% since the end of April.</p><p><blockquote>支撑着这股推力，<i>PLTR又增加了60名销售人员</i>如果我没记错的话，他们在第一季度雇佣了大约50名销售人员，因此他们正在稳步增加销售和营销人员的数量，但并没有大幅增加。也就是说，他们的管道正在加速，自4月底以来，活跃的商业试点增加了26%。</blockquote></p><p> Sixth, I heard leadership quickly say that they have paid off what they owed, and that<i>PLTR is now debt free</i>. In a future article, I'll have to do a deeper dive, but I wanted to report it here since I have an affinity for extremely strong balance sheets. It's possible I didn't understand the comment on the call, but I'm pretty sure that I've got it right. I reviewed the Q2 2021 business presentation but didn't see any notes on this so I'll have to revisit this at a later point. But again, I think I've got it right, and it's great news.</p><p><blockquote>第六，我很快听到领导说他们已经还清了欠款，而且<i>PLTR现已无债务</i>.在以后的文章中，我将不得不进行更深入的探讨，但我想在这里报告它，因为我对极其强劲的资产负债表有一种亲和力。有可能我没有理解关于看涨期权的评论，但我很确定我是对的。我查看了Q2 2021年业务演示，但没有看到任何关于这方面的注释，因此我将不得不在稍后重新讨论这一点。但是，我想我做对了，这是个好消息。</blockquote></p><p> Lastly, there was a question about Alex Karp's executive compensation, and specifically about the relentless insider selling. Before I get to that, here's some quick background&nbsp;reported by CNBC back in April 2021:</p><p><blockquote>最后，还有一个关于亚历克斯·卡普的高管薪酬的问题，特别是关于无情的内幕交易。在我开始之前，先介绍一下CNBC在2021年4月报道的一些快速背景：</blockquote></p><p>   Palantir CEO Alex Karp earned compensation worth about $1.1 billion in 2020, primarily through equity awards granted shortly before his software company went public.In a proxy filing on Thursday, Palantir said the bulk of Karp’s pay was tied to options worth $797.9 million, with another $296.4 million for stock awards. The outsized package is the result of an equity incentive plan agreed upon last year, giving Karp 141 million options that begin vesting in August 2021. Each quarter, 2.5 percent of the equity will vest.  Now, here's just a quick peek about what that selling looks like:</p><p><blockquote>Palantir首席执行官Alex Karp在2020年获得了价值约11亿美元的薪酬，主要是通过其软件公司上市前不久授予的股权奖励。Palantir在周四提交的委托书中表示，卡普的大部分薪酬与价值7.979亿美元的期权挂钩，另外2.964亿美元用于股票奖励。这一巨额计划是去年达成的股权激励计划的结果，为卡普提供了1.41亿份期权，将于2021年8月开始归属。每个季度，2.5%的股权将归属。现在，让我们快速了解一下销售情况：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9b2c725b59681121eec807c4650b5ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"295\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Nasdaq</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：纳斯达克</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Obviously, the action here is pretty intense and it's why it was brought up for consideration. Now, for the sake of simplicity, I'm going to paraphrase the scripted response that was read out loud. In short, Alex Karp has a huge number of options. These options are \"old\" and apparently must be exercised now; I believe before the end of 2021. Furthermore, the selling is automatic, which seems to line up pretty well with the data I've captured above. In other words,<i>Karp's selling isn't because he's lost faith in the company</i>.</p><p><blockquote>显然，这里的行动是相当激烈的，这就是为什么它被提出来考虑。现在，为了简单起见，我将解释一下大声朗读的脚本响应。简而言之，亚历克斯·卡普有大量的选择。这些期权是“旧的”，显然现在必须行使；我相信在2021年底之前。此外，销售是自动的，这似乎与我上面捕获的数据非常一致。换句话说，<i>卡普的抛售并不是因为他对公司失去了信心</i>.</blockquote></p><p> Karp's salary is just over $1 million, which isn't too bad, but it's also not crazy. Clearly, PLTR stock and options are fueling his incredible compensation package. This is a bit frustrating to track, however, when the options vest, get exercised and then sold there are also tremendous taxes to pay. So, in part, Karp is necessarily working through the process of exercising long-term options, while handling tax obligations on a rational schedule.</p><p><blockquote>卡普的薪水刚刚超过100万美元，不算太差，但也不算疯狂。显然，PLTR股票和期权推动了他令人难以置信的薪酬方案。然而，跟踪这一点有点令人沮丧，当期权授予、行使然后出售时，还需要支付巨额税款。因此，在某种程度上，卡普必须完成行使长期期权的过程，同时按照合理的时间表处理纳税义务。</blockquote></p><p> Again, all of this is to say two things. Karp's made a ton of money but at the same time, he hasn't given up on PLTR. His selling doesn't say anything substantial about PLTR's future, in my opinion. It's his own mind-boggling personal finance process, that's on display in public as the CEO of PLTR.</p><p><blockquote>再说一次，所有这些都是在说两件事。卡普赚了很多钱，但与此同时，他并没有放弃PLTR。在我看来，他的出售并不能说明PLTR的未来有任何实质性的意义。这是他自己令人难以置信的个人理财流程，作为PLTR的首席执行官公开展示。</blockquote></p><p> Summarizing everything, PLTR had a strong quarter in Q3 2021 looks like it should be strong as well:</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，PLTR在2021年第三季度表现强劲，看起来也应该很强劲：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e76043e7ef8c08556e6972aa0b37d66\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Palantir Q2 2021 Business Update</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 2021年第二季度业务更新</span></p></blockquote></p><p> And, very quickly,per my previous article:</p><p><blockquote>而且，很快，根据我上一篇文章：</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   I'll be looking for a deceleration in stock-based compensation expenses. I'll be looking for strong growth in both government and commercial. I'll be looking at Q2 growth, given the high bar set with&nbsp;49% growth in Q1 2021. I'll be looking at total remaining deal value, which was about $2.8 billion at the end of Q1 (and up 40% YoY). I am expecting contribution margin to remain high, and hopefully over 60% in Q2.  <ul>  <li>Stock based compensation increased. I'll have to review this more closely in a future article. It's still a major thorn in my side. Virtually every chart has this phrase in the footnotes:<i>\"...excludes stock-based compensation and related employer payroll taxes.\"</i>It's my #1 issue with PLTR.</li>  <li>Q2 growth was excellent, as I've pointed out. Both government and commercial did well. And, long-term customers keep sticking and spending, more and more. I like what I'm seeing in terms of growth.</li>  <li>Deal value increased 63% to $3.4 billion. So, they did very well in that department. That gives us a glimpse into future sales and related growth.</li>  <li>Lastly, contribution margin didn't hit my big goal of 60%, but it still improved strongly to 58% in Q2 2021 from 55% in Q2 2020.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote>我将寻求股票薪酬支出的减速。我将寻求政府和商业领域的强劲增长。考虑到2021年第一季度49%的高增长标准，我将关注第二季度的增长。我将关注剩余交易总价值，第一季度末约为28亿美元（同比增长40%）。我预计贡献率将保持在较高水平，希望在第二季度超过60%。<ul><li>基于股票的薪酬增加。我将在以后的文章中更仔细地回顾这一点。它仍然是我的眼中钉。几乎每张图表的脚注中都有这样的短语：<i>“……不包括股票薪酬和相关雇主工资税。”</i>这是我对PLTR的头号问题。</li><li>正如我所指出的，第二季度的增长非常出色。政府和商业都做得很好。而且，长期客户不断坚持和消费，越来越多。我喜欢我所看到的增长。</li><li>交易价值增长63%，达到34亿美元。所以，他们在那个部门做得很好。这让我们得以一窥未来的销售和相关增长。</li><li>最后，贡献率没有达到我60%的大目标，但仍从2020年第二季度的55%强劲提高到2021年第二季度的58%。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: 7 Interesting Things From The Q2 2021 Earnings Call<blockquote>Palantir：2021年第二季度收益看涨期权中的7件有趣的事情</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: 7 Interesting Things From The Q2 2021 Earnings Call<blockquote>Palantir：2021年第二季度收益看涨期权中的7件有趣的事情</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-14 07:42</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>First, I briefly review the big news and highlights from PLTR's Q2 2021 business update.</li>  <li>Second, I cover some of the details that are less well-known, including comments made by leadership on the earnings call.</li>  <li>Third, dive into some important details about Alex Karp's compensation, including his insider selling activity; leadership had a response prepared.</li>  <li>Lastly, I visit several metrics on my radar, including stock-based compensation, contribution margin, and deal value.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/028b3e3b1d2c99f3ee26f213c2fc069f\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>zirconicusso/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>首先，我简要回顾一下PLTR 2021年第二季度业务更新中的重大新闻和亮点。</li><li>其次，我介绍了一些鲜为人知的细节，包括领导层对收益看涨期权的评论。</li><li>第三，深入了解亚历克斯·卡普薪酬的一些重要细节，包括他的内幕销售活动；领导层已经准备好了回应。</li><li>最后，我访问了我关注的几个指标，包括基于股票的薪酬、边际贡献和交易价值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>zirconicusso/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It's likely that you've already heard the news that Palantir (PLTR) just reported astrong Q2 2021. I'm certain there will be plenty of coverage of the empirical results, including the tremendous growth and&nbsp;increased cash flow outlook.</p><p><blockquote>您可能已经听说Palantir(PLTR)刚刚报告了2021年第二季度业绩强劲的消息。我确信将会有大量的实证结果报道，包括巨大的增长和增加的现金流前景。</blockquote></p><p> Here, I'll just highlight those numbers then I'll turn to a few things that came up directly on the earnings call that surprised me.</p><p><blockquote>在这里，我将重点介绍这些数字，然后我将转向收益看涨期权上直接出现的一些让我感到惊讶的事情。</blockquote></p><p> First, revenue was up 49%, beating the estimates. it's notable that commercial revenue was up an eye-popping 90%, because it's an area that bears have complained about. This mostly squashes the idea that PLTR is only driven by secret government contracts.</p><p><blockquote>首先，收入增长49%，超出预期。值得注意的是，商业收入增长了令人瞠目结舌的90%，因为这是看空者抱怨的领域。这在很大程度上粉碎了PLTR仅由秘密政府合同驱动的想法。</blockquote></p><p> Second, PLTR closed a ton of deals in Q2. Specifically, they scored 62 deals worth $1 million or more. I like this view:</p><p><blockquote>其次，PLTR在第二季度完成了大量交易。具体来说，他们达成了62笔价值100万美元或以上的交易。我喜欢这个观点：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37ecc00151018d803161b75c01bb4571\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Palantir Q2 2021 Business Update</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 2021年第二季度业务更新</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Of course, the YoY remaining deal value is interesting but I like the blunt look into the deal size, with&nbsp;<i>30 deals over $5 million and 21 deals over $10 million</i>, because it indicates an ever-spreading reach of customers. That's exactly what's required to drive long-term revenue growth, but also stability.</p><p><blockquote>当然，同比剩余交易价值很有趣，但我喜欢直率地看待交易规模，<i>30笔交易超过500万美元，21笔交易超过1000万美元</i>，因为它表明客户范围不断扩大。这正是推动长期收入增长和稳定性所需要的。</blockquote></p><p> Third, it's looking like Q3 is going to work out fairly well. Sales are projected to be about $5 million great than consensus. And, as I've already mentioned, PLTR raised its free cash flow outlook. To be clear, the jump is rather big, going from greater than $150 million to now greater than $300 million.</p><p><blockquote>第三，看起来第三季度的表现会相当不错。销售额预计比预期高出约500万美元。而且，正如我已经提到的，PLTR提高了自由现金流前景。需要明确的是，增幅相当大，从超过1.5亿美元增加到现在的超过3亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> I didn't see or hear much about changes in annual revenue growth, but one thing is crystal clear -<i>I do not expect growth to slow down</i>. And, per the presentation and earnings call, growth is expected at 30% or more this year, and then through 2025.</p><p><blockquote>我没有看到或听到太多关于年收入增长的变化，但有一点是非常清楚的——<i>我预计增长不会放缓</i>.而且，根据演示和收益看涨期权，预计今年的增长率将达到30%或更高，然后到2025年。</blockquote></p><p> Interestingly, revenue grew by 49% in Q1 YoY, generating $341 between government and commercial. And now, in Q2, revenue grew by 49% YoY to $376 million. That's two quarters in a row at 49%. It's for this reason that I stick by&nbsp;what I previously wrote about PLTR sandbagging:</p><p><blockquote>有趣的是，第一季度的收入同比增长了49%，政府和商业收入为341美元。现在，第二季度收入同比增长49%，达到3.76亿美元。这是连续两个季度达到49%。正是出于这个原因，我坚持我之前写的关于PLTR沙袋的内容：</blockquote></p><p>   In other words, when we start with $800 million for 2021, it's pretty obvious that the 30% growth doesn't cut it. We cannot reach $4 billion by 2025 with \"only\" 30% growth. PLTR is perhapss&nbsp;andbagging&nbsp;to keep expectations lower. It's hard to know for sure. It could also be that they expect faster growth in 2022 through 2025.  I'll have to dive in deeper in a future article to see exactly how current and future growth projections line up against the hard numbers that have come in. For now, my point is simply that they've set the bar at a reasonable albeit conservative level and seeing beats like this is not too shocking, but also encouraging.<i>They're managing Wall Street and the analysts fairly well.</i></p><p><blockquote>换句话说，当我们从2021年的8亿美元开始时，很明显30%的增长并不能削减它。如果“仅”增长30%，我们不可能在2025年达到40亿美元。PLTR可能会降低预期。很难确定。也可能是他们预计2022年至2025年的增长会更快。我将不得不在未来的文章中更深入地探讨当前和未来的增长预测与已经出现的硬数据之间的确切关系。就目前而言，我的观点很简单，他们已经将标准设定在一个合理但保守的水平，看到这样的节拍并不太令人震惊，但也令人鼓舞。<i>他们对华尔街和分析师的管理相当好。</i></blockquote></p><p> Fourth, in addition to new customer acquisition, the revenue dollar value for PLTR's top 20 customers continues to march upward.</p><p><blockquote>第四，除了新客户获取外，PLTR前20名客户的收入美元价值持续上升。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fba540de7f84e50e602dc943d5e985f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Palantir Q2 2021 Business Update</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 2021年第二季度业务更新</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If it's not completely obvious, this is worth watching since it gives us some confidence that<i>customers are happy and they are sticking</i>. It's not a perfect indicator, but it's still pretty good since unhappy customers aren't going to keep paying PLTR, over and over. Other companies have a tendency to either focus too much on milking current \"cash cow\" customers or getting hyper aggressive about new customers. In the Q2 2021 update, we're seeing a great flow of new customers and then this indicator of growing long-term customer value. It's a delicate but critical balance. I'll continue to watch this in Q3.</p><p><blockquote>如果不是很明显，这是值得关注的，因为它给了我们一些信心<i>顾客很高兴，他们坚持下去</i>.这不是一个完美的指标，但它仍然很好，因为不满意的客户不会一遍又一遍地继续支付PLTR。其他公司倾向于要么过于关注榨取现有的“摇钱树”客户，要么对新客户过于咄咄逼人。在2021年第二季度的更新中，我们看到了大量的新客户，然后是长期客户价值不断增长的指标。这是一种微妙但关键的平衡。我会在第三季度继续看这个。</blockquote></p><p> Fifth,in Q1, we heard about \"Day Zero\" customers. Here's a taste:</p><p><blockquote>第五，在第一季度，我们听说了“零日”客户。这里有一个味道：</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   We are seeing opportunities for companies to build their digital infrastructure around foundry from day zero, where they can shave years off their ramps and mountains of risk off their roadmaps by cost efficiently standing on the shoulders of 15 years and more than $2 billion of R&amp;D. And we see this as the first salvo in expanding distribution of foundry to broader markets and a broader set of customers.  In Q2, PLTR leadership continued to push this theme, highlighting Roivant, Celularity and Wejo, for example. The idea is to get these companies using Foundry while they are just getting started, or otherwise very small. They're treating Foundry as the \"operating system\" of these businesses.</p><p><blockquote>我们看到了公司从第一天起就围绕foundry构建数字基础设施的机会，他们可以通过经济高效地站在15年和超过20亿美元的R&amp;D的肩膀上，减少数年的坡道和路线图上的风险。我们认为这是将foundry分销扩展到更广泛的市场和更广泛的客户的第一枪。在第二季度，PLTR领导层继续推动这一主题，例如强调Roivant、Celularity和Wejo。这个想法是让这些公司在刚刚起步或非常小的时候使用Foundry。他们将代工视为这些业务的“操作系统”。</blockquote></p><p> Supporting this thrust,<i>PLTR added another 60 sales hires</i>. If I recall correctly, they hired about 50 sales people in Q1, so they are steadily adding headcount in sales and marketing, without going gangbusters. That said, their pipeline is accelerating, with active commercial pilots up 26% since the end of April.</p><p><blockquote>支撑着这股推力，<i>PLTR又增加了60名销售人员</i>如果我没记错的话，他们在第一季度雇佣了大约50名销售人员，因此他们正在稳步增加销售和营销人员的数量，但并没有大幅增加。也就是说，他们的管道正在加速，自4月底以来，活跃的商业试点增加了26%。</blockquote></p><p> Sixth, I heard leadership quickly say that they have paid off what they owed, and that<i>PLTR is now debt free</i>. In a future article, I'll have to do a deeper dive, but I wanted to report it here since I have an affinity for extremely strong balance sheets. It's possible I didn't understand the comment on the call, but I'm pretty sure that I've got it right. I reviewed the Q2 2021 business presentation but didn't see any notes on this so I'll have to revisit this at a later point. But again, I think I've got it right, and it's great news.</p><p><blockquote>第六，我很快听到领导说他们已经还清了欠款，而且<i>PLTR现已无债务</i>.在以后的文章中，我将不得不进行更深入的探讨，但我想在这里报告它，因为我对极其强劲的资产负债表有一种亲和力。有可能我没有理解关于看涨期权的评论，但我很确定我是对的。我查看了Q2 2021年业务演示，但没有看到任何关于这方面的注释，因此我将不得不在稍后重新讨论这一点。但是，我想我做对了，这是个好消息。</blockquote></p><p> Lastly, there was a question about Alex Karp's executive compensation, and specifically about the relentless insider selling. Before I get to that, here's some quick background&nbsp;reported by CNBC back in April 2021:</p><p><blockquote>最后，还有一个关于亚历克斯·卡普的高管薪酬的问题，特别是关于无情的内幕交易。在我开始之前，先介绍一下CNBC在2021年4月报道的一些快速背景：</blockquote></p><p>   Palantir CEO Alex Karp earned compensation worth about $1.1 billion in 2020, primarily through equity awards granted shortly before his software company went public.In a proxy filing on Thursday, Palantir said the bulk of Karp’s pay was tied to options worth $797.9 million, with another $296.4 million for stock awards. The outsized package is the result of an equity incentive plan agreed upon last year, giving Karp 141 million options that begin vesting in August 2021. Each quarter, 2.5 percent of the equity will vest.  Now, here's just a quick peek about what that selling looks like:</p><p><blockquote>Palantir首席执行官Alex Karp在2020年获得了价值约11亿美元的薪酬，主要是通过其软件公司上市前不久授予的股权奖励。Palantir在周四提交的委托书中表示，卡普的大部分薪酬与价值7.979亿美元的期权挂钩，另外2.964亿美元用于股票奖励。这一巨额计划是去年达成的股权激励计划的结果，为卡普提供了1.41亿份期权，将于2021年8月开始归属。每个季度，2.5%的股权将归属。现在，让我们快速了解一下销售情况：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9b2c725b59681121eec807c4650b5ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"295\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Nasdaq</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：纳斯达克</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Obviously, the action here is pretty intense and it's why it was brought up for consideration. Now, for the sake of simplicity, I'm going to paraphrase the scripted response that was read out loud. In short, Alex Karp has a huge number of options. These options are \"old\" and apparently must be exercised now; I believe before the end of 2021. Furthermore, the selling is automatic, which seems to line up pretty well with the data I've captured above. In other words,<i>Karp's selling isn't because he's lost faith in the company</i>.</p><p><blockquote>显然，这里的行动是相当激烈的，这就是为什么它被提出来考虑。现在，为了简单起见，我将解释一下大声朗读的脚本响应。简而言之，亚历克斯·卡普有大量的选择。这些期权是“旧的”，显然现在必须行使；我相信在2021年底之前。此外，销售是自动的，这似乎与我上面捕获的数据非常一致。换句话说，<i>卡普的抛售并不是因为他对公司失去了信心</i>.</blockquote></p><p> Karp's salary is just over $1 million, which isn't too bad, but it's also not crazy. Clearly, PLTR stock and options are fueling his incredible compensation package. This is a bit frustrating to track, however, when the options vest, get exercised and then sold there are also tremendous taxes to pay. So, in part, Karp is necessarily working through the process of exercising long-term options, while handling tax obligations on a rational schedule.</p><p><blockquote>卡普的薪水刚刚超过100万美元，不算太差，但也不算疯狂。显然，PLTR股票和期权推动了他令人难以置信的薪酬方案。然而，跟踪这一点有点令人沮丧，当期权授予、行使然后出售时，还需要支付巨额税款。因此，在某种程度上，卡普必须完成行使长期期权的过程，同时按照合理的时间表处理纳税义务。</blockquote></p><p> Again, all of this is to say two things. Karp's made a ton of money but at the same time, he hasn't given up on PLTR. His selling doesn't say anything substantial about PLTR's future, in my opinion. It's his own mind-boggling personal finance process, that's on display in public as the CEO of PLTR.</p><p><blockquote>再说一次，所有这些都是在说两件事。卡普赚了很多钱，但与此同时，他并没有放弃PLTR。在我看来，他的出售并不能说明PLTR的未来有任何实质性的意义。这是他自己令人难以置信的个人理财流程，作为PLTR的首席执行官公开展示。</blockquote></p><p> Summarizing everything, PLTR had a strong quarter in Q3 2021 looks like it should be strong as well:</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，PLTR在2021年第三季度表现强劲，看起来也应该很强劲：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e76043e7ef8c08556e6972aa0b37d66\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Palantir Q2 2021 Business Update</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 2021年第二季度业务更新</span></p></blockquote></p><p> And, very quickly,per my previous article:</p><p><blockquote>而且，很快，根据我上一篇文章：</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   I'll be looking for a deceleration in stock-based compensation expenses. I'll be looking for strong growth in both government and commercial. I'll be looking at Q2 growth, given the high bar set with&nbsp;49% growth in Q1 2021. I'll be looking at total remaining deal value, which was about $2.8 billion at the end of Q1 (and up 40% YoY). I am expecting contribution margin to remain high, and hopefully over 60% in Q2.  <ul>  <li>Stock based compensation increased. I'll have to review this more closely in a future article. It's still a major thorn in my side. Virtually every chart has this phrase in the footnotes:<i>\"...excludes stock-based compensation and related employer payroll taxes.\"</i>It's my #1 issue with PLTR.</li>  <li>Q2 growth was excellent, as I've pointed out. Both government and commercial did well. And, long-term customers keep sticking and spending, more and more. I like what I'm seeing in terms of growth.</li>  <li>Deal value increased 63% to $3.4 billion. So, they did very well in that department. That gives us a glimpse into future sales and related growth.</li>  <li>Lastly, contribution margin didn't hit my big goal of 60%, but it still improved strongly to 58% in Q2 2021 from 55% in Q2 2020.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote>我将寻求股票薪酬支出的减速。我将寻求政府和商业领域的强劲增长。考虑到2021年第一季度49%的高增长标准，我将关注第二季度的增长。我将关注剩余交易总价值，第一季度末约为28亿美元（同比增长40%）。我预计贡献率将保持在较高水平，希望在第二季度超过60%。<ul><li>基于股票的薪酬增加。我将在以后的文章中更仔细地回顾这一点。它仍然是我的眼中钉。几乎每张图表的脚注中都有这样的短语：<i>“……不包括股票薪酬和相关雇主工资税。”</i>这是我对PLTR的头号问题。</li><li>正如我所指出的，第二季度的增长非常出色。政府和商业都做得很好。而且，长期客户不断坚持和消费，越来越多。我喜欢我所看到的增长。</li><li>交易价值增长63%，达到34亿美元。所以，他们在那个部门做得很好。这让我们得以一窥未来的销售和相关增长。</li><li>最后，贡献率没有达到我60%的大目标，但仍从2020年第二季度的55%强劲提高到2021年第二季度的58%。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448920-palantir-seven-interesting-things-from-q2-2021-earnings-call\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448920-palantir-seven-interesting-things-from-q2-2021-earnings-call","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196882604","content_text":"Summary\n\nFirst, I briefly review the big news and highlights from PLTR's Q2 2021 business update.\nSecond, I cover some of the details that are less well-known, including comments made by leadership on the earnings call.\nThird, dive into some important details about Alex Karp's compensation, including his insider selling activity; leadership had a response prepared.\nLastly, I visit several metrics on my radar, including stock-based compensation, contribution margin, and deal value.\n\nzirconicusso/iStock via Getty Images\nIt's likely that you've already heard the news that Palantir (PLTR) just reported astrong Q2 2021. I'm certain there will be plenty of coverage of the empirical results, including the tremendous growth and increased cash flow outlook.\nHere, I'll just highlight those numbers then I'll turn to a few things that came up directly on the earnings call that surprised me.\nFirst, revenue was up 49%, beating the estimates. it's notable that commercial revenue was up an eye-popping 90%, because it's an area that bears have complained about. This mostly squashes the idea that PLTR is only driven by secret government contracts.\nSecond, PLTR closed a ton of deals in Q2. Specifically, they scored 62 deals worth $1 million or more. I like this view:\nSource:Palantir Q2 2021 Business Update\nOf course, the YoY remaining deal value is interesting but I like the blunt look into the deal size, with 30 deals over $5 million and 21 deals over $10 million, because it indicates an ever-spreading reach of customers. That's exactly what's required to drive long-term revenue growth, but also stability.\nThird, it's looking like Q3 is going to work out fairly well. Sales are projected to be about $5 million great than consensus. And, as I've already mentioned, PLTR raised its free cash flow outlook. To be clear, the jump is rather big, going from greater than $150 million to now greater than $300 million.\nI didn't see or hear much about changes in annual revenue growth, but one thing is crystal clear -I do not expect growth to slow down. And, per the presentation and earnings call, growth is expected at 30% or more this year, and then through 2025.\nInterestingly, revenue grew by 49% in Q1 YoY, generating $341 between government and commercial. And now, in Q2, revenue grew by 49% YoY to $376 million. That's two quarters in a row at 49%. It's for this reason that I stick by what I previously wrote about PLTR sandbagging:\n\n In other words, when we start with $800 million for 2021, it's pretty obvious that the 30% growth doesn't cut it. We cannot reach $4 billion by 2025 with \"only\" 30% growth. PLTR is perhapss andbagging to keep expectations lower. It's hard to know for sure. It could also be that they expect faster growth in 2022 through 2025.\n\nI'll have to dive in deeper in a future article to see exactly how current and future growth projections line up against the hard numbers that have come in. For now, my point is simply that they've set the bar at a reasonable albeit conservative level and seeing beats like this is not too shocking, but also encouraging.They're managing Wall Street and the analysts fairly well.\nFourth, in addition to new customer acquisition, the revenue dollar value for PLTR's top 20 customers continues to march upward.\nSource: Palantir Q2 2021 Business Update\nIf it's not completely obvious, this is worth watching since it gives us some confidence thatcustomers are happy and they are sticking. It's not a perfect indicator, but it's still pretty good since unhappy customers aren't going to keep paying PLTR, over and over. Other companies have a tendency to either focus too much on milking current \"cash cow\" customers or getting hyper aggressive about new customers. In the Q2 2021 update, we're seeing a great flow of new customers and then this indicator of growing long-term customer value. It's a delicate but critical balance. I'll continue to watch this in Q3.\nFifth,in Q1, we heard about \"Day Zero\" customers. Here's a taste:\n\n We are seeing opportunities for companies to build their digital infrastructure around foundry from day zero, where they can shave years off their ramps and mountains of risk off their roadmaps by cost efficiently standing on the shoulders of 15 years and more than $2 billion of R&D. And we see this as the first salvo in expanding distribution of foundry to broader markets and a broader set of customers.\n\nIn Q2, PLTR leadership continued to push this theme, highlighting Roivant, Celularity and Wejo, for example. The idea is to get these companies using Foundry while they are just getting started, or otherwise very small. They're treating Foundry as the \"operating system\" of these businesses.\nSupporting this thrust,PLTR added another 60 sales hires. If I recall correctly, they hired about 50 sales people in Q1, so they are steadily adding headcount in sales and marketing, without going gangbusters. That said, their pipeline is accelerating, with active commercial pilots up 26% since the end of April.\nSixth, I heard leadership quickly say that they have paid off what they owed, and thatPLTR is now debt free. In a future article, I'll have to do a deeper dive, but I wanted to report it here since I have an affinity for extremely strong balance sheets. It's possible I didn't understand the comment on the call, but I'm pretty sure that I've got it right. I reviewed the Q2 2021 business presentation but didn't see any notes on this so I'll have to revisit this at a later point. But again, I think I've got it right, and it's great news.\nLastly, there was a question about Alex Karp's executive compensation, and specifically about the relentless insider selling. Before I get to that, here's some quick background reported by CNBC back in April 2021:\n\n Palantir CEO Alex Karp earned compensation worth about $1.1 billion in 2020, primarily through equity awards granted shortly before his software company went public.In a proxy filing on Thursday, Palantir said the bulk of Karp’s pay was tied to options worth $797.9 million, with another $296.4 million for stock awards. The outsized package is the result of an equity incentive plan agreed upon last year, giving Karp 141 million options that begin vesting in August 2021. Each quarter, 2.5 percent of the equity will vest.\n\nNow, here's just a quick peek about what that selling looks like:\nSource:Nasdaq\nObviously, the action here is pretty intense and it's why it was brought up for consideration. Now, for the sake of simplicity, I'm going to paraphrase the scripted response that was read out loud. In short, Alex Karp has a huge number of options. These options are \"old\" and apparently must be exercised now; I believe before the end of 2021. Furthermore, the selling is automatic, which seems to line up pretty well with the data I've captured above. In other words,Karp's selling isn't because he's lost faith in the company.\nKarp's salary is just over $1 million, which isn't too bad, but it's also not crazy. Clearly, PLTR stock and options are fueling his incredible compensation package. This is a bit frustrating to track, however, when the options vest, get exercised and then sold there are also tremendous taxes to pay. So, in part, Karp is necessarily working through the process of exercising long-term options, while handling tax obligations on a rational schedule.\nAgain, all of this is to say two things. Karp's made a ton of money but at the same time, he hasn't given up on PLTR. His selling doesn't say anything substantial about PLTR's future, in my opinion. It's his own mind-boggling personal finance process, that's on display in public as the CEO of PLTR.\nSummarizing everything, PLTR had a strong quarter in Q3 2021 looks like it should be strong as well:\nSource: Palantir Q2 2021 Business Update\nAnd, very quickly,per my previous article:\n\n I'll be looking for a deceleration in stock-based compensation expenses. I'll be looking for strong growth in both government and commercial. I'll be looking at Q2 growth, given the high bar set with 49% growth in Q1 2021. I'll be looking at total remaining deal value, which was about $2.8 billion at the end of Q1 (and up 40% YoY). I am expecting contribution margin to remain high, and hopefully over 60% in Q2.\n\n\nStock based compensation increased. I'll have to review this more closely in a future article. It's still a major thorn in my side. Virtually every chart has this phrase in the footnotes:\"...excludes stock-based compensation and related employer payroll taxes.\"It's my #1 issue with PLTR.\nQ2 growth was excellent, as I've pointed out. Both government and commercial did well. And, long-term customers keep sticking and spending, more and more. I like what I'm seeing in terms of growth.\nDeal value increased 63% to $3.4 billion. So, they did very well in that department. That gives us a glimpse into future sales and related growth.\nLastly, contribution margin didn't hit my big goal of 60%, but it still improved strongly to 58% in Q2 2021 from 55% in Q2 2020.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":337,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":174859740,"gmtCreate":1627091980580,"gmtModify":1633768075989,"author":{"id":"3580379447244817","authorId":"3580379447244817","name":"Haw75","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8a435feb2331b895463eca3c73cdb3f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580379447244817","authorIdStr":"3580379447244817"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"LikeLike","listText":"LikeLike","text":"LikeLike","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/174859740","repostId":"2153829859","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":554,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":174850831,"gmtCreate":1627091931323,"gmtModify":1633768077391,"author":{"id":"3580379447244817","authorId":"3580379447244817","name":"Haw75","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8a435feb2331b895463eca3c73cdb3f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580379447244817","authorIdStr":"3580379447244817"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"LikeLike","listText":"LikeLike","text":"LikeLike","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/174850831","repostId":"1112927800","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112927800","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627089375,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1112927800?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-24 09:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112927800","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV p","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.</li>  <li>NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.</li>  <li>NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f749c70c8a2af3e18d5f6cecc72bfbb\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>ipopba/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>让我们来看看今天的蔚来与特斯拉相比如何，蔚来的独特卖点，以及两家公司的相似之处。</li><li>蔚来是一个高增长的选择，相对于特斯拉的估值，它似乎并不太昂贵。</li><li>然而，蔚来并不是一只低风险股票，它可能并不是每个人的好选择。投资者还应该考虑蔚来与传统汽车公司的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ipopba/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来公司（蔚来）是中国领先的电动汽车制造商之一，通过其有吸引力的品牌和独特的BaaS产品吸引了消费者和投资者的极大兴趣。然而，如今，该公司仍然比目前引领全球电动汽车市场的特斯拉（TSLA）小得多。蔚来目前专注于国内市场，当特斯拉还是一家较小的公司时也是如此，但蔚来也将试图在海外市场抢占市场份额。股价已经反映了很大的增长，但如果蔚来能够复制特斯拉的成功，这可能是非常合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO And TSLA Stock Prices</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，两家公司都受益于人们对电动汽车日益增长的兴趣，这一趋势导致大多数纯电动汽车公司的股价迅速上涨。电动汽车市场份额不断增长、电动汽车购买补贴等宽松政策以及大规模货币刺激措施相结合，让蔚来和特斯拉的股价迅速上涨。蔚来去年上涨了245%，而特斯拉同期上涨了101%。然而，两家公司目前的交易价格均低于2021年初创下的历史高点，随后纯电动汽车的市场情绪在一定程度上降温。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ff5ce865807df85283775d2293b41af\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Taking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.</p><p><blockquote>快速浏览一下分析师的目标价，我们发现特斯拉的交易价格几乎完全符合共识，而蔚来的交易价格比分析师目标低约30%。如果分析师界是正确的，那么蔚来是一项更好的投资，因为预计特斯拉的股价明年不会大幅上涨，而蔚来的股价较分析师目标价有显着上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO Similar To Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉相似吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你关注的是什么。两家公司有相似之处，但也有不同之处。因此，人们可以说，在某些方面，两者是相似的，但在另一些方面，它们不是。让我们看几件事：</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都专注于电动汽车领域，尽管特斯拉多年来也在发展其他一些业务，例如储能。特斯拉的大部分收入来自销售电动汽车，这也是蔚来的运营方式。两家公司都专注于电动汽车的高端市场，销售价格较高的汽车，与宝马、梅赛德斯和雷克萨斯等品牌竞争。两家公司都提供少量不同的车辆，特斯拉是著名的S、X、3和Y，而蔚来则提供一款轿车(ET7)和三款SUV(EC6、ES6、ES8)。尽管蔚来如今是一家规模较小的公司，但两家公司的车型阵容并没有太大差异。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都向客户提供某种类型的充电基础设施，就特斯拉而言，这就是Supercharger网络，特斯拉车主可以根据安装的Supercharger版本为汽车充电高达250kW。蔚来正在采取不同的方法，为客户提供电池即服务解决方案。蔚来车主可以在蔚来的充电站将电池更换为充满电的电池，这一过程需要几分钟，因此与特斯拉和其他电动汽车厂商提供的常规电动汽车充电相比要快得多。因此，BaaS在充电/交换所需时间方面具有优势，但应该指出的是，与蔚来的电池交换站相比，特斯拉的超级充电站在世界各地更为常见。在其他市场推出该功能将需要大量资本支出，但与包括特斯拉在内的所有其他电动汽车厂商相比，蔚来的产品是一个独特的卖点。这最终是否会得到回报还有待观察，但随着电动汽车领域的竞争加剧，这可能成为蔚来的一大优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Size, growth, and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模、增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.</p><p><blockquote>这两家公司的规模差异很大，无论是在收入和汽车销量方面，还是在两家公司的市值方面。蔚来第二季度交付了22,000辆汽车，同比增长112%，年增长率约为90,000辆。与此同时，特斯拉在第二季度交付了201,000辆汽车，高于2020年第二季度的103,000辆汽车。这是一个强劲的同比增长，尽管略低于100%，因此低于蔚来目前的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:</p><p><blockquote>与蔚来相比，特斯拉每季度交付的汽车数量约为9倍，当我们查看两家公司的市值时，我们发现这一比例几乎完全相同，因为特斯拉6400亿美元的市值约为9倍。蔚来的市值为720亿美元。在类似的增长率下，这是完全有道理的，但目前看来蔚来可能是更好的交易，因为它的估值相当，同时产生更好的增长。在未来几个季度尤其如此，预计特斯拉的增长将放缓：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a986ea65130206f99961a46ce6cfed55\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的收入预计将从2021年的490亿美元增长到2023年的830亿美元，年增长率为30%。与此同时，蔚来的收入预计将在2021年至2023年间从54亿美元猛增至128亿美元，年增长率为54%。因此，相对而言，预计未来两年蔚来的增长速度将远远快于特斯拉。老实说，这并不奇怪，因为大数定律表明，对于一家规模越大的公司来说，保持大幅增长率就变得越来越困难，而特斯拉现在似乎已经达到了这一点——每年增加50%以上的收入将永远不可能。这甚至不一定是特斯拉的错，事实上，许多优质成长型公司都经历过同样的事情。但投资者仍应考虑这一重要事实——与我们过去看到的相比，特斯拉未来几年的增长将不那么令人兴奋，而蔚来等同行的增长速度更快。</blockquote></p><p> The same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).</p><p><blockquote>当我们从长远来看时，情况也是如此。蔚来2025年的收入预期为226亿美元，比2023年的预期再增长80%，比分析师对2021年的预测增长320%。与此同时，特斯拉预计2025年的收入将达到1,225亿美元，这是一个很大的数字，但比2023年增长了48%，比2021年总共增长了150%。因此，在2021年至2025年间，蔚来的收入将增加4倍，而特斯拉的收入将在同一时期增加2.5倍——在其他条件相同的情况下，这是一个有意义的差异，应该允许蔚来获得溢价估值，就像特斯拉一样。与大众汽车（OTCPK：VWAGY）等传统企业相比，它值得获得溢价估值。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.</p><p><blockquote>相对于两家公司目前的估值来看2025年的收入预期，我们发现蔚来的市盈率为2025年销售额的3.2倍，而特斯拉2025年的销售额倍数为5.2倍。因此，对于长期投资者来说，蔚来今天似乎更有价值，因为当我们展望未来时，它的销售倍数要低得多。然而，这并不一定意味着蔚来很便宜，因为与传统汽车公司的估值相比，即使2025年3.2倍的销售倍数也相对较高。然而，蔚来看起来比特斯拉便宜，尽管其股价绝对并不便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来能和特斯拉一样值钱吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly&nbsp;overpriced&nbsp;today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are&nbsp;underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你所关注的时间框架。如今，蔚来的规模明显小于特斯拉，因此其市值也相应地小得多。还应该指出的是，不能保证特斯拉的股票是电动汽车公司应该如何估值的一个很好的例子——至少，它的股票今天有可能被严重高估，我个人也相信这一点（请注意，有些人会认为股票定价过低，这也是一种可能性，尽管我个人并不持有这种信念）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> When we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.</p><p><blockquote>当我们暂时假设特斯拉今天的估值是正确的，并且电动汽车公司每年销售约80万辆汽车时确实应该获得6000亿美元的市值时，那么蔚来最终也可能达到这一目标，尽管不是在近期。蔚来今年将销售约9万辆汽车，2025年这一数字将增长至约40万辆。如果蔚来的销量在此之后每年增长15%，那么到2030年（即9年后），它可能会售出约80万辆汽车。如果想要更快的增长，也可以在2030年之前跨越每年80万辆汽车的界限，例如2028年或2029年。如果我们现在确实选择2030年，那么按照与特斯拉类似的交付量与市值比率，蔚来到2030年的估值可能会超过6000亿美元。换句话说，如果我们假设当前的增长预测是现实的，并且类似特斯拉的估值是合适的，那么九年后蔚来的价值可能会与特斯拉（今天）一样高。当然，这是两个主要的如果，尤其是第二点，我认为还远未确定。我个人不会对特斯拉的估值压缩感到太惊讶，因此蔚来的市值在2030年可能远低于6000亿美元的水平，即使它继续大幅增长。蔚来的增长也有可能令人失望，目前的预测过于乐观，尽管我认为蔚来凭借其独特的BaaS模式和在国内市场特别受认可的强大品牌，处于良好的增长地位。</blockquote></p><p> It should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.</p><p><blockquote>还应该指出的是，特斯拉2030年的市值可能与6000亿美元有很大不同，因此即使蔚来达到这一水平，也不能保证两家公司的市值会相似。到那时，特斯拉的估值可能会高得多，例如如果方舟模型是正确的（我个人认为不太可能）。为了回答上述问题，人们可以说，蔚来可能在8-10年内像特斯拉一样价值数千亿美元，但这根本不能保证。即使这种情况发生，到那时特斯拉的价值也可能会高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来现在是买入或卖出的好股票吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> When considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.</p><p><blockquote>当将蔚来视为一项投资时，它最终是否会变得像特斯拉一样庞大或估值很高并不重要。相反，投资者应该问自己，未来几年他们可以预期的总回报是多少，以及相对于蔚来商业模式的风险，这些预期回报是否足够高。关于这些风险，应该提到的事实是，该公司尚未盈利，这意味着蔚来依赖其资产负债表上的现金进行增长投资。最重要的是，电动汽车领域的竞争正在加剧，市场份额之争可能会在未来几年给利润率带来压力，尽管蔚来似乎由于其电池交换而处于相对有利的地位，我认为这是一个强大的USP。最后但并非最不重要的是，该公司对中国本土市场的依赖是一个应该牢记的潜在风险，尽管还应该指出的是，目前中国政府似乎对中国电动汽车公司非常包容。</blockquote></p><p> One could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.</p><p><blockquote>有人可能会说，相对于传统汽车公司的估值，整个电动汽车行业的估值过高。与纯电动汽车相比，即使是大众汽车或福特等拥有有吸引力的电动汽车产品的传统企业，其交易也有巨大的折扣。但如果你想投资纯电动汽车，蔚来似乎是一个不错的选择。该公司结合了强大的品牌、独特的BaaS产品、高增长率，并且与电动汽车之王特斯拉的估值相比，股票交易价格有折扣。与其他纯电动汽车公司相比，蔚来2025年收入略高于3倍，似乎并不算太贵，当然，与传统公司相比，这仍然代表着溢价。如果蔚来能够表现良好并继续推出深受消费者欢迎的新车型，从长远来看，其股价可能具有巨大的上涨潜力。如果电动汽车股票成为不受欢迎的投资，蔚来股票也可能有相当大的下跌空间，然而，这并不是一个低风险的选择。根据您的风险承受能力，如果您想要高增长的纯电动汽车，蔚来仍然可能具有价值。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-24 09:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.</li>  <li>NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.</li>  <li>NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f749c70c8a2af3e18d5f6cecc72bfbb\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>ipopba/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>让我们来看看今天的蔚来与特斯拉相比如何，蔚来的独特卖点，以及两家公司的相似之处。</li><li>蔚来是一个高增长的选择，相对于特斯拉的估值，它似乎并不太昂贵。</li><li>然而，蔚来并不是一只低风险股票，它可能并不是每个人的好选择。投资者还应该考虑蔚来与传统汽车公司的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ipopba/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来公司（蔚来）是中国领先的电动汽车制造商之一，通过其有吸引力的品牌和独特的BaaS产品吸引了消费者和投资者的极大兴趣。然而，如今，该公司仍然比目前引领全球电动汽车市场的特斯拉（TSLA）小得多。蔚来目前专注于国内市场，当特斯拉还是一家较小的公司时也是如此，但蔚来也将试图在海外市场抢占市场份额。股价已经反映了很大的增长，但如果蔚来能够复制特斯拉的成功，这可能是非常合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO And TSLA Stock Prices</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，两家公司都受益于人们对电动汽车日益增长的兴趣，这一趋势导致大多数纯电动汽车公司的股价迅速上涨。电动汽车市场份额不断增长、电动汽车购买补贴等宽松政策以及大规模货币刺激措施相结合，让蔚来和特斯拉的股价迅速上涨。蔚来去年上涨了245%，而特斯拉同期上涨了101%。然而，两家公司目前的交易价格均低于2021年初创下的历史高点，随后纯电动汽车的市场情绪在一定程度上降温。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ff5ce865807df85283775d2293b41af\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Taking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.</p><p><blockquote>快速浏览一下分析师的目标价，我们发现特斯拉的交易价格几乎完全符合共识，而蔚来的交易价格比分析师目标低约30%。如果分析师界是正确的，那么蔚来是一项更好的投资，因为预计特斯拉的股价明年不会大幅上涨，而蔚来的股价较分析师目标价有显着上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO Similar To Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉相似吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你关注的是什么。两家公司有相似之处，但也有不同之处。因此，人们可以说，在某些方面，两者是相似的，但在另一些方面，它们不是。让我们看几件事：</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都专注于电动汽车领域，尽管特斯拉多年来也在发展其他一些业务，例如储能。特斯拉的大部分收入来自销售电动汽车，这也是蔚来的运营方式。两家公司都专注于电动汽车的高端市场，销售价格较高的汽车，与宝马、梅赛德斯和雷克萨斯等品牌竞争。两家公司都提供少量不同的车辆，特斯拉是著名的S、X、3和Y，而蔚来则提供一款轿车(ET7)和三款SUV(EC6、ES6、ES8)。尽管蔚来如今是一家规模较小的公司，但两家公司的车型阵容并没有太大差异。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都向客户提供某种类型的充电基础设施，就特斯拉而言，这就是Supercharger网络，特斯拉车主可以根据安装的Supercharger版本为汽车充电高达250kW。蔚来正在采取不同的方法，为客户提供电池即服务解决方案。蔚来车主可以在蔚来的充电站将电池更换为充满电的电池，这一过程需要几分钟，因此与特斯拉和其他电动汽车厂商提供的常规电动汽车充电相比要快得多。因此，BaaS在充电/交换所需时间方面具有优势，但应该指出的是，与蔚来的电池交换站相比，特斯拉的超级充电站在世界各地更为常见。在其他市场推出该功能将需要大量资本支出，但与包括特斯拉在内的所有其他电动汽车厂商相比，蔚来的产品是一个独特的卖点。这最终是否会得到回报还有待观察，但随着电动汽车领域的竞争加剧，这可能成为蔚来的一大优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Size, growth, and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模、增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.</p><p><blockquote>这两家公司的规模差异很大，无论是在收入和汽车销量方面，还是在两家公司的市值方面。蔚来第二季度交付了22,000辆汽车，同比增长112%，年增长率约为90,000辆。与此同时，特斯拉在第二季度交付了201,000辆汽车，高于2020年第二季度的103,000辆汽车。这是一个强劲的同比增长，尽管略低于100%，因此低于蔚来目前的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:</p><p><blockquote>与蔚来相比，特斯拉每季度交付的汽车数量约为9倍，当我们查看两家公司的市值时，我们发现这一比例几乎完全相同，因为特斯拉6400亿美元的市值约为9倍。蔚来的市值为720亿美元。在类似的增长率下，这是完全有道理的，但目前看来蔚来可能是更好的交易，因为它的估值相当，同时产生更好的增长。在未来几个季度尤其如此，预计特斯拉的增长将放缓：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a986ea65130206f99961a46ce6cfed55\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的收入预计将从2021年的490亿美元增长到2023年的830亿美元，年增长率为30%。与此同时，蔚来的收入预计将在2021年至2023年间从54亿美元猛增至128亿美元，年增长率为54%。因此，相对而言，预计未来两年蔚来的增长速度将远远快于特斯拉。老实说，这并不奇怪，因为大数定律表明，对于一家规模越大的公司来说，保持大幅增长率就变得越来越困难，而特斯拉现在似乎已经达到了这一点——每年增加50%以上的收入将永远不可能。这甚至不一定是特斯拉的错，事实上，许多优质成长型公司都经历过同样的事情。但投资者仍应考虑这一重要事实——与我们过去看到的相比，特斯拉未来几年的增长将不那么令人兴奋，而蔚来等同行的增长速度更快。</blockquote></p><p> The same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).</p><p><blockquote>当我们从长远来看时，情况也是如此。蔚来2025年的收入预期为226亿美元，比2023年的预期再增长80%，比分析师对2021年的预测增长320%。与此同时，特斯拉预计2025年的收入将达到1,225亿美元，这是一个很大的数字，但比2023年增长了48%，比2021年总共增长了150%。因此，在2021年至2025年间，蔚来的收入将增加4倍，而特斯拉的收入将在同一时期增加2.5倍——在其他条件相同的情况下，这是一个有意义的差异，应该允许蔚来获得溢价估值，就像特斯拉一样。与大众汽车（OTCPK：VWAGY）等传统企业相比，它值得获得溢价估值。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.</p><p><blockquote>相对于两家公司目前的估值来看2025年的收入预期，我们发现蔚来的市盈率为2025年销售额的3.2倍，而特斯拉2025年的销售额倍数为5.2倍。因此，对于长期投资者来说，蔚来今天似乎更有价值，因为当我们展望未来时，它的销售倍数要低得多。然而，这并不一定意味着蔚来很便宜，因为与传统汽车公司的估值相比，即使2025年3.2倍的销售倍数也相对较高。然而，蔚来看起来比特斯拉便宜，尽管其股价绝对并不便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来能和特斯拉一样值钱吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly&nbsp;overpriced&nbsp;today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are&nbsp;underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你所关注的时间框架。如今，蔚来的规模明显小于特斯拉，因此其市值也相应地小得多。还应该指出的是，不能保证特斯拉的股票是电动汽车公司应该如何估值的一个很好的例子——至少，它的股票今天有可能被严重高估，我个人也相信这一点（请注意，有些人会认为股票定价过低，这也是一种可能性，尽管我个人并不持有这种信念）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> When we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.</p><p><blockquote>当我们暂时假设特斯拉今天的估值是正确的，并且电动汽车公司每年销售约80万辆汽车时确实应该获得6000亿美元的市值时，那么蔚来最终也可能达到这一目标，尽管不是在近期。蔚来今年将销售约9万辆汽车，2025年这一数字将增长至约40万辆。如果蔚来的销量在此之后每年增长15%，那么到2030年（即9年后），它可能会售出约80万辆汽车。如果想要更快的增长，也可以在2030年之前跨越每年80万辆汽车的界限，例如2028年或2029年。如果我们现在确实选择2030年，那么按照与特斯拉类似的交付量与市值比率，蔚来到2030年的估值可能会超过6000亿美元。换句话说，如果我们假设当前的增长预测是现实的，并且类似特斯拉的估值是合适的，那么九年后蔚来的价值可能会与特斯拉（今天）一样高。当然，这是两个主要的如果，尤其是第二点，我认为还远未确定。我个人不会对特斯拉的估值压缩感到太惊讶，因此蔚来的市值在2030年可能远低于6000亿美元的水平，即使它继续大幅增长。蔚来的增长也有可能令人失望，目前的预测过于乐观，尽管我认为蔚来凭借其独特的BaaS模式和在国内市场特别受认可的强大品牌，处于良好的增长地位。</blockquote></p><p> It should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.</p><p><blockquote>还应该指出的是，特斯拉2030年的市值可能与6000亿美元有很大不同，因此即使蔚来达到这一水平，也不能保证两家公司的市值会相似。到那时，特斯拉的估值可能会高得多，例如如果方舟模型是正确的（我个人认为不太可能）。为了回答上述问题，人们可以说，蔚来可能在8-10年内像特斯拉一样价值数千亿美元，但这根本不能保证。即使这种情况发生，到那时特斯拉的价值也可能会高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来现在是买入或卖出的好股票吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> When considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.</p><p><blockquote>当将蔚来视为一项投资时，它最终是否会变得像特斯拉一样庞大或估值很高并不重要。相反，投资者应该问自己，未来几年他们可以预期的总回报是多少，以及相对于蔚来商业模式的风险，这些预期回报是否足够高。关于这些风险，应该提到的事实是，该公司尚未盈利，这意味着蔚来依赖其资产负债表上的现金进行增长投资。最重要的是，电动汽车领域的竞争正在加剧，市场份额之争可能会在未来几年给利润率带来压力，尽管蔚来似乎由于其电池交换而处于相对有利的地位，我认为这是一个强大的USP。最后但并非最不重要的是，该公司对中国本土市场的依赖是一个应该牢记的潜在风险，尽管还应该指出的是，目前中国政府似乎对中国电动汽车公司非常包容。</blockquote></p><p> One could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.</p><p><blockquote>有人可能会说，相对于传统汽车公司的估值，整个电动汽车行业的估值过高。与纯电动汽车相比，即使是大众汽车或福特等拥有有吸引力的电动汽车产品的传统企业，其交易也有巨大的折扣。但如果你想投资纯电动汽车，蔚来似乎是一个不错的选择。该公司结合了强大的品牌、独特的BaaS产品、高增长率，并且与电动汽车之王特斯拉的估值相比，股票交易价格有折扣。与其他纯电动汽车公司相比，蔚来2025年收入略高于3倍，似乎并不算太贵，当然，与传统公司相比，这仍然代表着溢价。如果蔚来能够表现良好并继续推出深受消费者欢迎的新车型，从长远来看，其股价可能具有巨大的上涨潜力。如果电动汽车股票成为不受欢迎的投资，蔚来股票也可能有相当大的下跌空间，然而，这并不是一个低风险的选择。根据您的风险承受能力，如果您想要高增长的纯电动汽车，蔚来仍然可能具有价值。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112927800","content_text":"Summary\n\nLet's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.\nNIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.\nNIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.\n\nipopba/iStock via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nNIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.\nNIO And TSLA Stock Prices\nBoth companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.\nData by YCharts\nTaking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.\nIs NIO Similar To Tesla?\nThe answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:\nBusiness Model\nBoth companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.\nBoth companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.\nSize, growth, and valuation\nThe two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.\nTesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:\nData by YCharts\nTesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.\nThe same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).\nLooking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.\nCan NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?\nThe answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly overpriced today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).\nWhen we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.\nIt should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.\nIs NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?\nWhen considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.\nOne could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9,"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":720,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}