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2021-12-08

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Win Streak Expected To Continue For Singapore Stock Market<blockquote>新加坡股市预计将继续连胜</blockquote>

2021-07-09

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2021-07-09

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2021-07-08

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2021-07-07

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2021-07-07

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2021-07-06

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2021-06-25

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2021-06-21

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2021-06-21

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2021-06-20

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2021-06-20

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ASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential<blockquote>ASML：市场可能低估了其潜力</blockquote>

2021-06-18

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Crypto Mining Could Give Huge Boost to Seagate and Western Digital Stock<blockquote>加密货币挖矿可能会极大提振希捷和西部数据的股票</blockquote>

2021-06-17

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2021-06-16

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Why Goldman Sachs Changed Its Mind On Apple Stock<blockquote>高盛为何改变对苹果股票的看法</blockquote>

2021-06-16

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2021-06-13

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Meme Stock Soars 1,000% To Lead These Two Top Small Cap Stock Plays<blockquote>Meme 股票飙升 1,000%，领跑这两只顶级小盘股</blockquote>

2021-06-13

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2021-06-11

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2021-06-10

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The Straits Times Index now sits just above the 3,130-point plateau and it figures to add to its winnings on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>新加坡股市已连续三个交易日收高，一路上涨近45点或1.4%。海峡时报指数目前略高于 3,130 点的平台位，预计将在周二增加其收益。</blockquote></p><p> The global forecast for the Asian markets is upbeat on easing virus concerns, supported by tech and oil stocks. The European and U.S. markets were sharply higher and the Asian markets are tipped to open in similar fashion.</p><p><blockquote>在科技股和石油股的支撑下，亚洲市场的全球预测对病毒担忧的缓解持乐观态度。欧洲和美国市场大幅走高，亚洲市场预计也将以类似的方式开盘。</blockquote></p><p> The STI finished modestly higher on Tuesday following gains from the financial shares and the industrial stocks.</p><p><blockquote>继金融股和工业股上涨后，STI 周二小幅收高。</blockquote></p><p> For the day, the index gained 18.34 points or 0.59 percent to finish at 3,134.66 after trading between 3,120.44 and 3,138.41. Volume was 1.26 billion shares worth 1.13 billion Singapore dollars. There were 324 gainers and 159 decliners.</p><p><blockquote>当天，该指数上涨18.34点或0.59%，收于3,134.66点，交易区间为3,120.44至3,138.41点。成交量为12.6亿股，价值11.3亿新加坡元。有324只上涨，159只下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Among the actives, Ascendas REIT perked 0.34 percent, while City Developments accelerated 1.46 percent, Comfort DelGro sank 0.70 percent, Dairy Farm International was up 0.33 percent, DBS Group added 0.79 percent, Keppel Corp gathered 0.97 percent, Mapletree Commercial Trust rallied 0.99 percent, Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation gained 0.62 percent, SATS jumped 1.29 percent, SembCorp Industries rose 0.50 percent, Singapore Airlines soared 2.25 percent, Singapore Exchange advanced 0.85 percent, Singapore Press Holdings increased 0.43 percent, Singapore Technologies Engineering added 0.27 percent, SingTel climbed 1.26 percent, Thai Beverage spiked 1.50 percent, United Overseas Bank collected 0.41 percent, Wilmar International improved 0.48 percent, Yangzijiang Shipbuilding surged 2.333 percent and Mapletree Logistics Trust, Genting Singapore and CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust were unchanged.</p><p><blockquote>资产中，Ascendas REIT上涨0.34%，City Developments上涨1.46%，Comfort DelGro下跌0.70%，Dairy Farm International上涨0.33%，星展集团上涨0.79%，吉宝公司上涨0.97%，丰树商业信托上涨0.99%，华侨银行上涨0.62%，SATS上涨1.29%，胜科实业上涨0.50%，新加坡航空飙升2.25%，新加坡交易所上涨0.85%，新加坡报业控股上涨0.43%，新加坡科技工程上涨0.27%，新加坡电信上涨1.26%，泰国饮料上涨1.50%，大华银行上涨0.41%，丰益国际上涨0.48%，扬子江造船上涨2.333%，丰树物流</blockquote></p><p> The lead from Wall Street is broadly positive as the major averages opened sharply higher on Tuesday and stayed that way throughout the session.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街的领先优势总体上是积极的，主要股指周二大幅开盘走高，并在整个交易日保持这一趋势。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow spiked 492.40 points or 1.40 percent to finish at 35,719.43, while the NASDAQ surged 461.76 points or 3.03 percent to close at 15,686.92 and the S&amp;P 500 jumped 95.08 points or 2.07 percent to end at 4,686.75.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯指数飙升492.40点或1.40%，收于35719.43点，而纳斯达克指数飙升461.76点或3.03%，收于15686.92点，标普500指数上涨95.08点或2.07%，收于4686.75点。</blockquote></p><p> Easing concerns about the impact of the Omicron variant of the coronavirus contributed to the continued strength on Wall Street. Indications the variant causes milder symptoms has helped offset worries the new strain could derail the global economic recovery.</p><p><blockquote>对冠状病毒奥密克戎变种影响的担忧有所缓解，有助于华尔街持续走强。该变种导致症状较轻的迹象有助于抵消人们对新毒株可能破坏全球经济复苏的担忧。</blockquote></p><p> Intel (INTC) fueled the rally as the semiconductor giant is jumped 3.1 percent to its best closing level in well over a month. The spike by Intel comes after the company announced its intention to take its self-driving car unit Mobileye public in the U.S. in mid-2022 via an initial public offering.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔 (INTC) 推动了上涨，这家半导体巨头股价上涨 3.1%，达到一个多月以来的最佳收盘水平。英特尔股价飙升之前，该公司宣布打算于 2022 年中期通过首次公开募股在美国上市其自动驾驶汽车部门 Mobileye。</blockquote></p><p> In U.S. economic news, the Commerce Department released a report showing the U.S. trade deficit narrowed significantly in the month of October amid a spike in the value of exports.</p><p><blockquote>美国经济新闻方面，商务部发布报告显示，在出口额飙升的情况下，美国10月份贸易逆差大幅收窄。</blockquote></p><p> Crude oil prices rose sharply on Tuesday, lifting the most active futures contracts to their highest settlement in two weeks amid rising optimism about the outlook for energy demand. West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for January surged $2.56 or 3.7 percent at $72.05 a barrel.</p><p><blockquote>由于对能源需求前景的乐观情绪上升，原油价格周二大幅上涨，最活跃的期货合约达到两周来的最高结算价。1月份西德克萨斯中质原油期货价格上涨2.56美元，涨幅3.7%，至每桶72.05美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1626938412129","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Win Streak Expected To Continue For Singapore Stock Market<blockquote>新加坡股市预计将继续连胜</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWin Streak Expected To Continue For Singapore Stock Market<blockquote>新加坡股市预计将继续连胜</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">RTTNews</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-08 08:06</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The Singapore stock market has finished higher in three straight sessions, collecting almost 45 points or 1.4 percent along the way. The Straits Times Index now sits just above the 3,130-point plateau and it figures to add to its winnings on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>新加坡股市已连续三个交易日收高，一路上涨近45点或1.4%。海峡时报指数目前略高于 3,130 点的平台位，预计将在周二增加其收益。</blockquote></p><p> The global forecast for the Asian markets is upbeat on easing virus concerns, supported by tech and oil stocks. The European and U.S. markets were sharply higher and the Asian markets are tipped to open in similar fashion.</p><p><blockquote>在科技股和石油股的支撑下，亚洲市场的全球预测对病毒担忧的缓解持乐观态度。欧洲和美国市场大幅走高，亚洲市场预计也将以类似的方式开盘。</blockquote></p><p> The STI finished modestly higher on Tuesday following gains from the financial shares and the industrial stocks.</p><p><blockquote>继金融股和工业股上涨后，STI 周二小幅收高。</blockquote></p><p> For the day, the index gained 18.34 points or 0.59 percent to finish at 3,134.66 after trading between 3,120.44 and 3,138.41. Volume was 1.26 billion shares worth 1.13 billion Singapore dollars. There were 324 gainers and 159 decliners.</p><p><blockquote>当天，该指数上涨18.34点或0.59%，收于3,134.66点，交易区间为3,120.44至3,138.41点。成交量为12.6亿股，价值11.3亿新加坡元。有324只上涨，159只下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Among the actives, Ascendas REIT perked 0.34 percent, while City Developments accelerated 1.46 percent, Comfort DelGro sank 0.70 percent, Dairy Farm International was up 0.33 percent, DBS Group added 0.79 percent, Keppel Corp gathered 0.97 percent, Mapletree Commercial Trust rallied 0.99 percent, Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation gained 0.62 percent, SATS jumped 1.29 percent, SembCorp Industries rose 0.50 percent, Singapore Airlines soared 2.25 percent, Singapore Exchange advanced 0.85 percent, Singapore Press Holdings increased 0.43 percent, Singapore Technologies Engineering added 0.27 percent, SingTel climbed 1.26 percent, Thai Beverage spiked 1.50 percent, United Overseas Bank collected 0.41 percent, Wilmar International improved 0.48 percent, Yangzijiang Shipbuilding surged 2.333 percent and Mapletree Logistics Trust, Genting Singapore and CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust were unchanged.</p><p><blockquote>资产中，Ascendas REIT上涨0.34%，City Developments上涨1.46%，Comfort DelGro下跌0.70%，Dairy Farm International上涨0.33%，星展集团上涨0.79%，吉宝公司上涨0.97%，丰树商业信托上涨0.99%，华侨银行上涨0.62%，SATS上涨1.29%，胜科实业上涨0.50%，新加坡航空飙升2.25%，新加坡交易所上涨0.85%，新加坡报业控股上涨0.43%，新加坡科技工程上涨0.27%，新加坡电信上涨1.26%，泰国饮料上涨1.50%，大华银行上涨0.41%，丰益国际上涨0.48%，扬子江造船上涨2.333%，丰树物流</blockquote></p><p> The lead from Wall Street is broadly positive as the major averages opened sharply higher on Tuesday and stayed that way throughout the session.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街的领先优势总体上是积极的，主要股指周二大幅开盘走高，并在整个交易日保持这一趋势。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow spiked 492.40 points or 1.40 percent to finish at 35,719.43, while the NASDAQ surged 461.76 points or 3.03 percent to close at 15,686.92 and the S&amp;P 500 jumped 95.08 points or 2.07 percent to end at 4,686.75.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯指数飙升492.40点或1.40%，收于35719.43点，而纳斯达克指数飙升461.76点或3.03%，收于15686.92点，标普500指数上涨95.08点或2.07%，收于4686.75点。</blockquote></p><p> Easing concerns about the impact of the Omicron variant of the coronavirus contributed to the continued strength on Wall Street. Indications the variant causes milder symptoms has helped offset worries the new strain could derail the global economic recovery.</p><p><blockquote>对冠状病毒奥密克戎变种影响的担忧有所缓解，有助于华尔街持续走强。该变种导致症状较轻的迹象有助于抵消人们对新毒株可能破坏全球经济复苏的担忧。</blockquote></p><p> Intel (INTC) fueled the rally as the semiconductor giant is jumped 3.1 percent to its best closing level in well over a month. The spike by Intel comes after the company announced its intention to take its self-driving car unit Mobileye public in the U.S. in mid-2022 via an initial public offering.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔 (INTC) 推动了上涨，这家半导体巨头股价上涨 3.1%，达到一个多月以来的最佳收盘水平。英特尔股价飙升之前，该公司宣布打算于 2022 年中期通过首次公开募股在美国上市其自动驾驶汽车部门 Mobileye。</blockquote></p><p> In U.S. economic news, the Commerce Department released a report showing the U.S. trade deficit narrowed significantly in the month of October amid a spike in the value of exports.</p><p><blockquote>美国经济新闻方面，商务部发布报告显示，在出口额飙升的情况下，美国10月份贸易逆差大幅收窄。</blockquote></p><p> Crude oil prices rose sharply on Tuesday, lifting the most active futures contracts to their highest settlement in two weeks amid rising optimism about the outlook for energy demand. West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for January surged $2.56 or 3.7 percent at $72.05 a barrel.</p><p><blockquote>由于对能源需求前景的乐观情绪上升，原油价格周二大幅上涨，最活跃的期货合约达到两周来的最高结算价。1月份西德克萨斯中质原油期货价格上涨2.56美元，涨幅3.7%，至每桶72.05美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.rttnews.com/3247578/win-streak-expected-to-continue-for-singapore-stock-market.aspx?type=acom\">RTTNews</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"STI.SI":"富时新加坡海峡指数","C09.SI":"城市发展","A17U.SI":"凯德腾飞房产信托"},"source_url":"https://www.rttnews.com/3247578/win-streak-expected-to-continue-for-singapore-stock-market.aspx?type=acom","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137636769","content_text":"The Singapore stock market has finished higher in three straight sessions, collecting almost 45 points or 1.4 percent along the way. The Straits Times Index now sits just above the 3,130-point plateau and it figures to add to its winnings on Tuesday.\n\nThe global forecast for the Asian markets is upbeat on easing virus concerns, supported by tech and oil stocks. The European and U.S. markets were sharply higher and the Asian markets are tipped to open in similar fashion.\n\nThe STI finished modestly higher on Tuesday following gains from the financial shares and the industrial stocks.\n\nFor the day, the index gained 18.34 points or 0.59 percent to finish at 3,134.66 after trading between 3,120.44 and 3,138.41. Volume was 1.26 billion shares worth 1.13 billion Singapore dollars. There were 324 gainers and 159 decliners.\n\nAmong the actives, Ascendas REIT perked 0.34 percent, while City Developments accelerated 1.46 percent, Comfort DelGro sank 0.70 percent, Dairy Farm International was up 0.33 percent, DBS Group added 0.79 percent, Keppel Corp gathered 0.97 percent, Mapletree Commercial Trust rallied 0.99 percent, Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation gained 0.62 percent, SATS jumped 1.29 percent, SembCorp Industries rose 0.50 percent, Singapore Airlines soared 2.25 percent, Singapore Exchange advanced 0.85 percent, Singapore Press Holdings increased 0.43 percent, Singapore Technologies Engineering added 0.27 percent, SingTel climbed 1.26 percent, Thai Beverage spiked 1.50 percent, United Overseas Bank collected 0.41 percent, Wilmar International improved 0.48 percent, Yangzijiang Shipbuilding surged 2.333 percent and Mapletree Logistics Trust, Genting Singapore and CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust were unchanged.\n\nThe lead from Wall Street is broadly positive as the major averages opened sharply higher on Tuesday and stayed that way throughout the session.\n\nThe Dow spiked 492.40 points or 1.40 percent to finish at 35,719.43, while the NASDAQ surged 461.76 points or 3.03 percent to close at 15,686.92 and the S&P 500 jumped 95.08 points or 2.07 percent to end at 4,686.75.\n\nEasing concerns about the impact of the Omicron variant of the coronavirus contributed to the continued strength on Wall Street. Indications the variant causes milder symptoms has helped offset worries the new strain could derail the global economic recovery.\n\nIntel (INTC) fueled the rally as the semiconductor giant is jumped 3.1 percent to its best closing level in well over a month. The spike by Intel comes after the company announced its intention to take its self-driving car unit Mobileye public in the U.S. in mid-2022 via an initial public offering.\n\nIn U.S. economic news, the Commerce Department released a report showing the U.S. trade deficit narrowed significantly in the month of October amid a spike in the value of exports.\n\nCrude oil prices rose sharply on Tuesday, lifting the most active futures contracts to their highest settlement in two weeks amid rising optimism about the outlook for energy demand. 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and comment please","listText":"Like and comment please","text":"Like and comment please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/154767072","repostId":"2149033827","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2473,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":122338826,"gmtCreate":1624596723965,"gmtModify":1633950714618,"author":{"id":"3579925209341859","authorId":"3579925209341859","name":"FlyHighFly","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a610574cab0fe2ee4e79d08d0eb9ce6c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579925209341859","authorIdStr":"3579925209341859"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please like and comment","listText":"Please like and comment","text":"Please like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/122338826","repostId":"2146023477","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2282,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164782034,"gmtCreate":1624236362428,"gmtModify":1634009183112,"author":{"id":"3579925209341859","authorId":"3579925209341859","name":"FlyHighFly","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a610574cab0fe2ee4e79d08d0eb9ce6c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579925209341859","authorIdStr":"3579925209341859"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please like and comment. 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Similarly, it faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms vital for semiconductor manufacturing. The household names within the semiconductor industry belong to the manufacturers, but the machinery providers, such as ASML, command very strong moats through extensive technological knowledge and strong process knowledge leaving all potential competitors years behind if they should ever try to compete.</p><p><blockquote>ASML Holding (ASML) 拥有无与伦比的市场地位，其最先进的技术平台 EUV 光刻没有竞争对手。同样，它在 DUV 内部面临的竞争非常有限，这两个平台对半导体制造都至关重要。半导体行业内家喻户晓的品牌属于制造商，但ASML等机械供应商通过广泛的技术知识和强大的工艺知识掌握着非常强大的护城河，如果所有潜在竞争对手试图竞争，他们将落后数年。</blockquote></p><p> It's hard to think of a better competitive situation, especially when operating in a sector forecasted to grow well above general GDP for many years to come. However, the market has long since recognized ASML's outstanding potential and potential journey, but still, it could be underestimating the potential.</p><p><blockquote>很难想象还有比这更好的竞争形势了，尤其是在一个预计未来许多年增长将远高于整体GDP的行业。然而，市场早已认识到 ASML 的杰出潜力和潜在历程，但仍然可能低估了其潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> I recently wrote an article concerning how youcan’t own too much semiconductor exposure. Having decomposed the value chain for semiconductor manufacturing, I received a number of questions concerning ASML in the comment sections and decided to conduct this follow-up. I’ve selected ASML due to its unique marketplace position and potential.</p><p><blockquote>我最近写了一篇文章，讲述了如何避免拥有太多半导体曝光。在分解了半导体制造的价值链后，我在评论部分收到了许多关于ASML的问题，并决定进行后续跟进。我选择 ASML 是因为它独特的市场地位和潜力。</blockquote></p><p> Personally I have exposure to the manufacturing level of the semiconductor value chain through shares in both Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), but venturing further back into the value chain, and investors can be allowed to invest in a broader manner into the industry, as the suppliers of machinery and software obtain a broader exposure to most of the manufacturers making it immensely interesting as you can adopt the mantra of “I don’t really mind who wins, as long as they are racing”. As such, potential exposure upstream in the value chain carries great interest.</p><p><blockquote>就我个人而言，我通过持有德州仪器公司（TXN）和博通公司（AVGO）的股票，接触到了半导体价值链的制造层面，但如果进一步深入价值链，投资者就可以以更广泛的方式投资该行业，因为机械和软件供应商可以更广泛地接触到大多数制造商，这使得它变得非常有趣，因为你可以采用 “我真的不介意谁赢，只要他们在竞争 ”的口头禅。因此，价值链上游的潜在风险敞口引起了极大的兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Marketplace and Value Drivers For Years To Come</b></p><p><blockquote><b>未来几年的市场和价值驱动因素</b></blockquote></p><p> For ASML followers it’s no surprise at this point, but ASML is dominant within the product offering that will drive its revenue for the coming decade, EUV (Extreme ultraviolet lithography) technology. My personal take is that it is hard to find a company in a similarly advantageous competitive position anywhere in any industry. ASML provides equipment for lithography, the art of printing the chip features via light sources, in several light spectrums with its most advanced being EUV which is the next-gen to DUV (deep ultraviolet lithography). For DUV there are competitors albeit ASML has a massive market share above 85%. The difference between DUV and EUV is that EUV operates at a light wavelength almost 15 times smaller than DUV (13.5nm compared to 193nm).</p><p><blockquote>对于 ASML 的追随者来说，这并不奇怪，但 ASML 在未来十年将推动其收入的产品中占据主导地位，那就是 EUV（极紫外光刻）技术。我个人的看法是，在任何行业的任何地方，都很难找到一家处于类似优势竞争地位的公司。ASML 提供光刻设备，光刻是通过光源以多种光谱打印芯片特征的艺术，其中最先进的是 EUV，它是 DUV（深紫外光刻）的下一代。对于 DUV 来说，尽管 ASML 拥有超过 85% 的巨大市场份额，但仍有竞争对手。DUV和EUV之间的区别在于，EUV在比DUV小近15倍的光波长（13.5nm对193nm）下工作。</blockquote></p><p> Actually, the semiconductor manufacturers for the leading edge chips such as 5nm and soon to be 3nm are deeply dependent on the EUV machinery. Without it, it simply wouldn’t be possible. That sounds like a pretty good bargain for those who can manufacture these machines, but there is only one company that is able to do it, and that is ASML. For every generation of new EUV machinery, its yield becomes better with higher throughput and reduced downtime issues, meaning that ASML is effectively lightyears ahead of anyone who would try to pick up the gauntlet and challenge their dominant position.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，5nm和即将成为3nm等前沿芯片的半导体制造商严重依赖EUV机器。没有它，这根本不可能。对于那些能够制造这些机器的人来说，这听起来是一笔相当划算的交易，但只有一家公司能够做到这一点，那就是 ASML。对于每一代新的 EUV 机器，其产量都会随着更高的吞吐量和更少的停机问题而变得更好，这意味着 ASML 实际上领先于任何试图接受挑战并挑战其主导地位的人。</blockquote></p><p> This is an industry where everything is about process knowledge. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is able to produce 5nm chips because it was able to produce 7nm, and it will be able to produce 3nm because it can produce 5nm and has done that a million times over which is also why it was so detrimental to Intel Corp (INTC) that it had to acknowledge its persistent issues with the 7nm technology.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个一切都是关于过程知识的行业。台积电（TSM）能够生产5纳米芯片，因为它能够生产7纳米，它将能够生产3纳米，因为它可以生产5纳米，并且已经这样做了一百万次，这也是为什么它对英特尔公司（INTC）如此不利，以至于它不得不承认其在7纳米技术方面的持续问题。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Quite simply, there is no 3nm if you can’t do the 5nm, as also discussed in my previous article. Same goes for ASML as a competitor would be years and years behind ASML if they entered the EUV space as they would struggle with the same issues that have plagued ASML in its early days of EUV more than a decade ago. I’ve included a number of illustrations from their most recent investor day which took place in November 2018, with the next one to take place in September 2021.</p><p><blockquote>很简单，如果你做不到 5 纳米，就没有 3 纳米，正如我之前的文章中所讨论的那样。ASML 也是如此，因为如果竞争对手进入 EUV 领域，他们将落后 ASML 很多年，因为他们将面临十多年前 EUV 早期困扰 ASML 的同样问题。我收录了他们最近一次投资者日的一些插图，该活动于 2018 年 11 月举行，下一次将于 2021 年 9 月举行。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edaa6b5a77f99726bbae61b032b9c208\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 6.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML投资者日2018，EUV产品和商业机会，第6页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The picture above clearly illustrates the process knowledge having been picked up by ASML throughout its EUV lifetime. This has also translated into better EUV machinery for each new generation as also evident by its productivity improvements. Again, I can’t imagine a more favourable competitive situation for a company, given how much time and capital it would require for a competitor to adopt the EUV technology.</p><p><blockquote>上图清楚地说明了 ASML 在其 EUV 生命周期中获得的工艺知识。这也为每一代新产品带来了更好的 EUV 机械，生产率的提高也证明了这一点。同样，考虑到竞争对手采用 EUV 技术需要大量的时间和资金，我无法想象还有什么比这更有利的竞争形势了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85913766aea721e218e976e4f73349e5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 16.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML投资者日2018，EUV产品和商业机会，第16页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Semiconductor manufacturing is a cutthroat business with heavy R&amp;D spend (it took ASML €6 billion in R&amp;D spend to invent EUV) driving chip improvements according to Moore’s law, meaning that ASML is already working on the next-gen technology, referred to as High NA-EUV. High NA-EUV is still some time away, with the timeline below being slightly outdated, but its technology will significantly improve the EUV platform and power the industry beyond this decade. It takes time to develop the technology, improve yield and reduce downtime, but there is still plenty of opportunities for EUV in terms of marketplace expansion and margin improvement.</p><p><blockquote>根据摩尔定律，半导体制造是一个残酷的行业，研发支出巨大（ASML 花费了 60 亿欧元的研发支出才发明了 EUV）推动芯片改进，这意味着 ASML 已经在研究下一代技术，即高 NA-EUV。High NA-EUV 还需要一段时间，下面的时间表有点过时，但其技术将显着改善 EUV 平台，并在本十年后为行业提供动力。开发技术、提高良率和减少停机时间需要时间，但EUV在市场扩张和利润率提高方面仍然有很多机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7709f0f76b1619a31b32fc3330134005\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 21.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML投资者日2018，EUV产品和商业机会，第21页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ASML itself has laid out the expected path in terms of optimised margins through both add-ons facing the buyer side and upstream cost reductions facing their suppliers creating a sweet spot for the company effectively striving to achieve the same profitability profile as for its more mature DUV platform.</p><p><blockquote>ASML 本身已经通过面向买方的附加产品和面向供应商的上游成本降低，在优化利润率方面规划了预期路径，为公司创造了一个最佳点，有效地努力实现与其更成熟的 DUV 平台相同的盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/809661531ad423f613fb44c26e0b3352\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 25.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML投资者日2018，EUV产品和商业机会，第25页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If that wasn’t good enough, then add the fact that the semiconductor industry in general is expected to outpace general GDP for at least until 2028 with a CAGR of 8.6%. Recentcommunicationsby Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel and Samsung Electronics Company (OTC:SSNLF) shows the strength and growth potential for the sector with their combined CAPEX expectations going beyond $200 billion for the coming decade, with a significant chunk of that within the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>如果这还不够好，那么再加上半导体行业的整体增长率预计至少在 2028 年之前将超过整体 GDP，复合年增长率为 8.6%。台积电、英特尔和三星电子公司 (OTC: SSNLF) 的最新通讯显示了该行业的实力和增长潜力，他们对未来十年的资本支出合计预期将超过 2000 亿美元，其中很大一部分将在未来几年内实现。</blockquote></p><p> As can be seen in the illustration above, ASML expects increased customer value through upgrades, with their roadmap for DUV serving as an example in terms of how the revenue base could expand over the coming years for EUV as is the case for DUV via what the company has labelled installed base management.</p><p><blockquote>从上图可以看出，ASML 预计通过升级来增加客户价值，他们的 DUV 路线图就是一个例子，说明 EUV 的收入基础如何在未来几年扩大，就像 DUV 的情况一样通过该公司称之为安装基地管理。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8ef7940a4b888c50159e5b9db4c0634\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, DUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 10.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML投资者日2018，DUV产品和商业机会，第10页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> There is of course always the possibility of a serious contender entering the marketplace in order to try and challenge ASML, but companies have tried to enter the space when the technology was in its infancy having given up, meaning the prime threat would be the emergence of a new lithography technology arriving and doing to EUV what EUV did to DUV. Possible sure, likely, not so much. Just to hammer down the point, I’ve inserted a paragraph from ASML’s own description of how lithography plays its role.</p><p><blockquote>当然，总是有可能有一个强有力的竞争者进入市场，试图挑战 ASML，但公司在该技术还处于起步阶段时就试图进入该领域，但已经放弃了，这意味着主要威胁将是一种新的光刻技术的出现。到来并对 EUV 产生了 EUV 对 DUV 的影响。可能当然，很可能，没那么多。为了说明这一点，我插入了 ASML 自己对光刻技术如何发挥作用的描述中的一段话。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   “  <i>Lithography is a driving force in the creation of more powerful, faster and cheaper chips. The manufacturing of chips becomes increasingly complex as semiconductor feature sizes shrink, while the imperative to mass produce at the right cost remains. Our holistic lithography product portfolio helps to optimize production and enable affordable shrink by integrating lithography systems with computational modeling, as well as metrology and inspection solutions. A lithography system is essentially a projection system. Light is projected through a blueprint of the pattern that will be printed (known as a ‘mask’ or ‘reticle’). With the pattern encoded in the light, the system’s optics shrink and focus the pattern onto a photosensitive silicon wafer. After the pattern is printed, the system moves the wafer slightly and makes another copy on the wafer. This process is repeated until the wafer is covered in patterns, completing one layer of the wafer’s chips. To make an entire microchip, this process is repeated layer after layer, stacking the patterns to create an integrated circuit (IC). The simplest chips have around 10 layers, while the most complex can have over 150 layers. The size of the features to be printed varies depending on the layer, which means that different types of lithography systems are used for different layers – our latest-generation EUV systems for the most critical layers with the smallest features to ArF, KrF, and i-line DUV systems for less critical layers with larger features.</i>”  <i>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</i>  <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa32572971943844c4e71ddfc77559d6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"547\"><span>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</span></p><p><blockquote>“<i>光刻技术是创造更强大、更快、更便宜的芯片的驱动力。随着半导体特征尺寸的缩小，芯片的制造变得越来越复杂，而以合适的成本大规模生产的必要性仍然存在。我们的整体光刻产品组合通过将光刻系统与计算建模以及计量和检测解决方案相结合，帮助优化生产并实现经济实惠的收缩。光刻系统本质上是投影系统。光通过将被打印的图案的蓝图（称为“掩模”或“十字线”）投射。在光中编码图案后，系统的光学器件会收缩并将图案聚焦到光敏硅晶片上。图案被打印后，系统稍微移动晶圆，并在晶圆上制作另一份拷贝。重复这一过程，直到晶片被图案覆盖，完成一层晶片。为了制造整个微芯片，这个过程一层一层地重复，堆叠图案以创建集成电路（IC）。最简单的芯片大约有10层，而最复杂的芯片可以有150多层。要打印的特征尺寸因层而异，这意味着不同类型的光刻系统用于不同的层——我们最新一代的EUV系统用于功能最小的最关键层，而ArF、KrF和i-line DUV系统用于功能较小的不太关键层。</i>”<i>ASML 2020 年年度报告，光刻的作用，第 12 页。</i><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2020 年年度报告，光刻的作用，第 12 页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I believe most investors are familiar with confirmation bias, and if they aren’t, they should grab a book and educate themselves. Having read through this section, it can easily sound as if I as the author is suffering from confirmation bias given how strongly I’ve advocated for ASML’s position and competitive power. However, I’ve striven towards identifying situations that could severely impact ASML and being honest I can’t find it. There are of course the risks associated with geopolitical tension, which also showed itself in the stock price back in 2016, the risk of supply chain disruption as is currently transpiring across the industry and competition for talent. These are touched upon by the company itself in their annual report 2020 p. 21 and no industry comes without potential risks.</p><p><blockquote>我相信大多数投资者都熟悉确认偏差，如果不熟悉，他们应该拿起一本书来教育自己。读完这一部分后，鉴于我对 ASML 的地位和竞争力的大力倡导，作为作者，我很容易觉得自己患有确认性偏见。不过，我一直在努力找出可能严重影响 ASML 的情况，但老实说，我找不到。当然，还有与地缘政治紧张局势相关的风险，这也反映在 2016 年的股价上，以及目前整个行业正在发生的供应链中断的风险以及人才竞争。这些都是公司自己在2020年年度报告第21页中提到的，没有一个行业没有潜在的风险。</blockquote></p><p> So, to sum it all up:</p><p><blockquote>总而言之：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>ASML has pioneered EUV lithography, with no competitors in sight</li>  <li>EUV will enable the continuation of Moore’s Law and will drive long term value for ASML and its customers well into this decade</li>  <li>The semiconductor sector forecasted to grow at CAGR of 8.6% through 2028, outpacing general GDP with ASML being a key supplier to the manufacturers (foundries)</li>  <li>Strong industry CAPEX driving demand for ASML offerings</li>  <li>The path forward for expanding EUV business in terms of installed base management, margins improvement and manufacturer dependency on EUV machinery for leading edge chips</li>  <li>ASML is a crucial player for leading edge chip manufacturing</li> </ul> Sounds pretty good to me.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>ASML 开创了 EUV 光刻技术，看不到竞争对手</li><li>EUV 将使摩尔定律得以延续，并将推动 ASML 及其客户在未来十年内的长期价值</li><li>预计到 2028 年，半导体行业的复合年增长率将达到 8.6%，超过整体 GDP，ASML 是制造商（代工厂）的主要供应商</li><li>强劲的行业资本支出推动对 ASML 产品的需求</li><li>在安装基地管理、利润率提高以及制造商对领先芯片 EUV 机器的依赖方面扩展 EUV 业务的前进道路</li><li>ASML 是尖端芯片制造的重要参与者</li></ul>对我来说听起来不错。</blockquote></p><p> The Financial Performance and Development</p><p><blockquote>财务表现及发展</blockquote></p><p> ASML is doing well for itself as evident by the illustration below.</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，ASML 做得很好。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Strong revenue growth</li>  <li>Strong margin expansion</li>  <li>Strong improvement in free cash flow</li>  <li>Impressive operational improvements strengthening its moat through increased R&amp;D spend and IP portfolio</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7900753b1857ac9ad6fc705b9baad563\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"414\"><span>Annual Report 2020, p 7.</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>强劲的收入增长</li><li>强劲的利润率扩张</li><li>自由现金流大幅改善</li><li>令人印象深刻的运营改进通过增加研发支出和知识产权组合来巩固其护城河</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2020年年度报告，第7页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This was followed by a strong Q1-2021 performance with mouth-watering financials on both top and bottom line. However, for their Q2-2021 performance they are guiding for slightly lower revenue expansion at €4.1 billion with a gross margin of 49%, which is still above the long term average but closer to it. There is however no denying that the company is thriving in the current environment.</p><p><blockquote>随后是 2021 年第一季度的强劲表现，营收和利润都令人垂涎。然而，对于 2021 年第二季度的业绩，他们预计收入增长略有下降，为 41 亿欧元，毛利率为 49%，仍高于长期平均水平，但更接近长期平均水平。然而，不可否认的是，该公司在当前环境下蓬勃发展。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60ea4dedde41a918bd9e1fd307a9531f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 14.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2021年第一季度，第14页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> An interesting detail is the development within the installed base management as illustrated earlier in the article. The company is delivering on its promise with a strong development within this segment growing 29% YoY from 2019 to 2020, well beyond the total growth of 18%.</p><p><blockquote>一个有趣的细节是已安装基础管理中的发展，如本文前面所述。该公司正在兑现其承诺，该领域的强劲发展从 2019 年到 2020 年同比增长 29%，远远超过 18% 的总增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6966dcaf747d226d5de580187d4d3ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 8.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2021 年第一季度，第 8 页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The more interesting question however is whether the market estimates are underestimating the potential for ASML. An immensely hard question, but if we give it a look, I personally at least see the possibility of that being the case.</p><p><blockquote>然而，更有趣的问题是市场估计是否低估了 ASML 的潜力。这是一个非常困难的问题，但如果我们看一看，我个人至少看到了这种可能性。</blockquote></p><p> Are Analyst Consensus Estimates Under- or Over-Estimating ASML’s Potential?</p><p><blockquote>分析师的一致估计是低估了 ASML 的潜力还是高估了？</blockquote></p><p> ASML is well-covered by analysts offering estimates all the way through 2028, but with coverage waning once we go beyond 2025 which is the last year covered by more than one analyst. The current estimates show a revenue CAGR development of 11.1% from 2020 to 2028, but if we remove 2021, which shows stellar growth, the CAGR is 6.5%.</p><p><blockquote>ASML 在整个 2028 年之前都受到分析师的广泛关注，但一旦我们超过 2025 年（这是不止一位分析师关注的最后一年），覆盖范围就会减弱。目前的估计显示，从2020年到2028年，收入CAGR增长率为11.1%，但如果我们排除2021年，这显示出恒星增长，CAGR为6.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9adf4cebbce28dc7433186b5bd0827e8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Author's Own Creation, Source Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>作者自己的创作，来源寻求阿尔法。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Remember the sector as a whole is forecasted to exhibit growth at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028. These are all estimates which carry great uncertainty with no one able to reliably predict the future. However, it is worth noticing that revenue estimates for ASML are below the sector as a whole if the massive jump from 2020 to 2021 is left out of the equation. Average revenue growth from 2026 to 2028 is currently estimated to be 3.5%.</p><p><blockquote>请记住，预计到 2028 年，整个行业的复合年增长率将达到 8.6%。这些都是带有很大不确定性的估计，没有人能够可靠地预测未来。然而，值得注意的是，如果将 2020 年至 2021 年的大幅跃升排除在外，ASML 的收入预期将低于整个行业。目前预计2026年至2028年的平均收入增长率为3.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Considering some of the arguments in favour of why ASML’s outlook could be even more positive:</p><p><blockquote>考虑到一些支持 ASML 前景可能更加乐观的论点：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>General semiconductor industry CAGR 2020-2028 forecasted at 8.6%.</li>  <li>DUV CAGR 2020-2025forecastedat 8.4%, it is still ASML’s largest product category.</li>  <li>EUV CAGR 2020-2027forecastedat 12%.</li>  <li>ASML is a linchpin player to solve chip shortage through technology advancement and its machines define the performance of every electrical gadget we utilise in our daily lives.</li>  <li>ASML shows progress in its plan to widen the ecosystem for its machinery through \"Installed Base Management\" increasing the total addressable market by upwards of double digits percentage as 2018 sales were 20% installed base management and 2025 estimate is 50%.</li>  <li>ASML dominates the DUV immersion segment, the part of DUV with high margins as its two solecompetitorsin DUV, Nikon and Canon lack the means and capabilities.</li>  <li>As the market transitions to EUV, the demand for DUV willfollowas the chip stacking process benefits from both systems through its manufacturing.</li> </ul> This is without mentioning the potential price increases that could trickle down towards its customers as they could be fighting over ASML’s capacity due to its strong market position of 85% in DUV and monopoly within EUV while also bringing High NA-EUV to market by mid of this decade. Customers today pay roughly $130-150 million for EUV machines, while DUV machines come in at around $100 million. The largest hindrance to ASML overdelivering is its current capacity constraint in terms of ability to deliver EUV systems which is capped somewhere between 40 and 50 systems a year, with the company of course striving to expand that capacity constraint as demand builds up over the years. On the other hand, this could also be a driver for price increases as ASML strives to expand capacity.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>通用半导体行业2020-2028年CAGR预测为8.6%。</li><li>DUV 2020-2025 年复合年增长率预测为 8.4%，仍是 ASML 最大的产品类别。</li><li>EUV CAGR 2020-2027 预测为 12%。</li><li>ASML是通过技术进步解决芯片短缺的关键参与者，其机器定义了我们日常生活中使用的每一个电子设备的性能。</li><li>ASML 展示了其通过“安装基础管理”扩大机械生态系统的计划取得的进展，将总潜在市场增加了两位数以上，2018 年销售额为 20%，2025 年估计为 50%。</li><li>ASML 在 DUV 沉浸式细分市场占据主导地位，这是 DUV 中利润率较高的部分，因为其在 DUV 中唯一的两个竞争对手尼康和佳能缺乏手段和能力。</li><li>随着市场向 EUV 过渡，对 DUV 的需求也将随之增长。芯片堆叠工艺通过其制造受益于这两个系统。</li></ul>更不用说潜在的价格上涨，这些价格上涨可能会波及到其客户，因为ASML在DUV中占据85%的强势市场地位，在EUV中占据垄断地位，同时还将在本十年中期将高NA-EUV推向市场，因此他们可能会争夺ASML的产能。如今，客户为 EUV 机器支付大约 1.3-1.5 亿美元，而 DUV 机器的收入约为 1 亿美元。ASML 超额交付的最大障碍是其目前在交付 EUV 系统的能力方面的产能限制，每年上限为 40 至 50 个系统，随着需求的增长，该公司当然会努力扩大这一产能限制多年来。另一方面，随着 ASML 努力扩大产能，这也可能成为价格上涨的驱动因素。</blockquote></p><p> I will not try to construct an even bolder revenue guidance as it’s a cheap shot and frankly, no one has the capacity to accurately forecast if the current expectations will stand or whether they are too positive or negative. I just want to highlight that with everything going on and ASML’s market position in mind, I don’t consider it unreasonable that the company will do even better than currently anticipated.</p><p><blockquote>我不会试图制定一个更大胆的收入指引，因为这是一个廉价的机会，坦率地说，没有人有能力准确预测当前的预期是否会成立，或者它们是过于积极还是过于消极。我只想强调的是，考虑到目前发生的一切以及 ASML 的市场地位，我认为该公司的表现会比目前的预期还要好并非不合理。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> The stock price is an inch away from its 52-week high and has been on a tear since the beginning of 2020, really taking off since October 2020 from which it has doubled since.</p><p><blockquote>股价距离 52 周高点仅一步之遥，自 2020 年初以来一直处于上涨状态，自 2020 年 10 月以来真正起飞，此后已翻了一番。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/472c0e2f540c1d4ee2a7bbaec09379c0\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"453\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Market cap has exploded with all other parameters left in its wake having seen a significant expansion in price-earnings ratio despite a strong improvement in EPS and revenue. The stock market has long since recognised the story and potential of ASML with the Wall Street analyst target currently at $722 per share. Fair to say, there is no margin of safety if the analysts are correct in the predictions. Interestingly, out of the 30 analysts offering a price target, the percentage who are very bullish hasn’t been higher since 2016 with 56% stating a very bullish opinion. There is a mental exercise in staying cautious in terms of believing in such statements, not least because the stock has only known one direction for the last couple of years – upwards.</p><p><blockquote>尽管每股收益和收入强劲改善，但市盈率却大幅扩大，随后所有其他参数都出现了爆炸式增长。股市早已认识到 ASML 的故事和潜力，华尔街分析师目前的目标是每股 722 美元。公平地说，如果分析师的预测是正确的，就没有安全边际。有趣的是，在提供目标价的 30 位分析师中，非常看涨的比例自 2016 年以来从未更高，56% 的分析师表示非常看涨。在相信此类声明时保持谨慎是一种心理练习，尤其是因为该股在过去几年中只知道一个方向——上涨。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The significance of the expansion in typical ratios is evident when considered over a five-year horizon as shown below. Both P/E and P/S have expanded massively standing at 55 and 15.7 respectively. However, the company is in a very different place compared to three years ago.</p><p><blockquote>当考虑如下所示的五年期限时，典型比率扩张的重要性是显而易见的。市盈率和市盈率均大幅增长，分别为 55 和 15.7。然而，与三年前相比，该公司处于一个非常不同的位置。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c691d4662a793b5de150add67a3a4e11\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Revenue is growing significantly faster than previously with gross margin and free cash flow also having improved. Due to this positive development, ASML is also returning plenty of capital to its shareholders with a share buyback program of €10 billion for 2021, which unfortunately only translates to a reduction of 0.5% of the current float.</p><p><blockquote>收入增长速度明显快于以前，毛利率和自由现金流也有所改善。由于这一积极进展，ASML 还通过 2021 年 100 亿欧元的股票回购计划向股东返还大量资本，但不幸的是，该计划仅导致当前流通股减少 0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7341584d3ba7b1db51e1eef3c4bdaccd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The strong belief in ASML going forward is also clearly illustrated by the estimates for the coming years, which throughout the most recent years has been steadily climbing due to the company’s strong portfolio and market dominance.</p><p><blockquote>对 ASML 未来几年的预测也清楚地表明了对未来几年的坚定信心，由于该公司强大的产品组合和市场主导地位，近年来该公司的预测一直在稳步攀升。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b262aeeb8d75114dbc3e45bf9464c830\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With all that said, I believe that current shareholders do well for themselves in holding on to their existing shares as this company has a great outlook. I’ve had my eyes on ASML for the last year, and I’m extremely sad to say I never got around to looking into it properly, but only looked it at from afar and concluded that the stock might be due for a good pullback at one point. Little did I know.</p><p><blockquote>综上所述，我相信现有股东持有现有股份对自己有好处，因为这家公司前景光明。过去一年，我一直在关注 ASML，我非常遗憾地说，我从来没有抽出时间好好研究过它，只是远远地看了一眼，得出的结论是，该股可能会在某个时候出现一次不错的回调。我一点也不知道。</blockquote></p><p> As Peter Lynch famously said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves,” as would also be true for someone like me who didn’t act in time. I’m still massively fascinated by ASML’s outlook and potential journey, but at the current price, I remain hesitant about the prospects and the lack of margin of safety.</p><p><blockquote>正如彼得-林奇（Peter Lynch）的名言：“投资者因准备调整或试图预测调整而损失的资金远远多于调整本身损失的资金”，对于像我这样没有及时采取行动的人来说也是如此。我仍然对 ASML 的前景和潜在发展历程非常着迷，但以目前的价格来看，我对其前景和缺乏安全边际仍然犹豫不决。</blockquote></p><p> There is a lot of potential for ASML to grow into its valuation, and if one is to add that current levels, I’d say dollar-cost averaging is a prudent strategy for the current price, while reserving the possibility to back up the truck for a full load if we see a pullback before end of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>ASML 的估值有很大的增长潜力，如果要加上目前的水平，我认为美元成本平均法是当前价格的谨慎策略，同时如果我们在 2021 年底前看到回调，则保留为满载货车备份的可能性。</blockquote></p><p> As can be seen below, it is not uncommon for ASML to experience a 10% setback once or twice a year.</p><p><blockquote>从下面可以看出，ASML每年经历一两次10%的挫折并不罕见。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad90b51964870f5475b596fe16f63317\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> ASML is dominant within its two main offerings, the DUV and EUV lithography. Its market is backed by incredibly strong tailwinds as all our gadgets, electrical cars, 5G, datacentres, cloud servers, etc. are heavily reliant on the technology platform offered by ASML. A true innovator with no real competition in sight, feeding machinery and tools to an industry expected to grow at CAGR 8.6% through 2028 with potentially even stronger growth for both its DUV and EUV platforms while also expecting margin expansion.</p><p><blockquote>ASML 在其两大主要产品（DUV 和 EUV 光刻）中占据主导地位。它的市场得到了令人难以置信的强劲顺风的支持，因为我们所有的小工具、电动汽车、5G、数据中心、云服务器等。严重依赖ASML提供的技术平台。一家真正的创新者，没有真正的竞争，为预计到 2028 年复合年增长率将达到 8.6% 的行业提供机械和工具，其 DUV 和 EUV 平台的增长可能会更加强劲，同时还预计利润率将扩大。</blockquote></p><p> There is little evil to be said about ASML, but unfortunately, the stock market has long since recognised its amazing story and potential. With such a strong outlook in sight, existing shareholders do well for themselves in holding onto their shares and just enjoy the journey ahead, but for the prospective shareholders, there appears to be a little margin of safety with the market cap having expanded significantly recently and the stock trading just an inch shy of its 52 week high.</p><p><blockquote>ASML 没有什么坏话可说，但不幸的是，股市早已认识到其惊人的故事和潜力。有了如此强劲的前景，现有股东在持有股票方面做得很好，只是享受未来的旅程，但对于潜在股东来说，随着市值最近大幅扩大，似乎还有一点安全边际。股票交易距离 52 周高点仅一英寸。</blockquote></p><p> As Peter Lynch said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” The exact fallacy I’ve fallen victim to as I’ve looked at ASML from afar for quite a while. Despite the recent expansion in market cap and multiples, there could be made a case for current estimates underestimating ASML’s true potential, but any forecast extending 5-10 years into the future comes with extreme uncertainty and guesstimation. As I’ve shown, ASML’s share price is prone to setbacks once or twice a year allowing dollar-cost averaging to serve as a method to acquire exposure to the company slowly building a position along the way.</p><p><blockquote>正如彼得-林奇（Peter Lynch）所说，“投资者因准备调整或试图预测调整而损失的资金远远多于调整本身损失的资金”。这正是我在很长一段时间里从远处看待 ASML 时陷入的谬误。尽管最近市值和市盈率有所扩大，但目前的估计可能低估了 ASML 的真实潜力，但任何将未来 5-10 年的预测都伴随着极大的不确定性和猜测。正如我所展示的，ASML 的股价每年容易出现一到两次挫折，因此美元成本平均法可以作为一种方法，在此过程中慢慢建仓，从而获得对公司的敞口。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>ASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential<blockquote>ASML：市场可能低估了其潜力</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential<blockquote>ASML：市场可能低估了其潜力</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 11:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.</li>  <li>DUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 12% through 2027.</li>  <li>ASML holds a monopoly within EUV and faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms absolutely vital for the semiconductor manufacturing process.</li>  <li>A true innovator, ASML commands an outstanding position and growth outlook but the stock market has long since recognized the potential.</li>  <li>Existing shareholders do well for themselves in just enjoying the ride, but there is little margin of safety left for prospective shareholders who might dip their toes into the water through dollar-cost averaging to benefit from the strong tailwinds powering ASML.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44b5f81c309842f14fe1adffe3d6c9ca\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"432\"><span>MACRO PHOTO/iStock via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>预计到 2028 年，半导体行业的复合年增长率将达到 8.6%。</li><li>DUV光刻预计到2025年将以8.4%的CAGR增长，EUV光刻预计到2027年将以12%的CAGR增长。</li><li>ASML 在 EUV 中占据垄断地位，而在 DUV 中面临的竞争非常有限，这两个平台对于半导体制造工艺都绝对至关重要。</li><li>作为一家真正的创新者，ASML 拥有出色的地位和增长前景，但股市早已认识到其潜力。</li><li>现有股东在享受旅程方面做得很好，但对于潜在股东来说，安全边际很小，他们可能会通过美元成本平均法将脚趾浸入水中，以从推动 ASML 的强劲顺风中受益。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>微距照片/iStock via Getty Images投资论文</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ASML Holding (ASML) commands a market position like no one else with not a competitor in sight for its most advanced technological platform, EUV lithography. Similarly, it faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms vital for semiconductor manufacturing. The household names within the semiconductor industry belong to the manufacturers, but the machinery providers, such as ASML, command very strong moats through extensive technological knowledge and strong process knowledge leaving all potential competitors years behind if they should ever try to compete.</p><p><blockquote>ASML Holding (ASML) 拥有无与伦比的市场地位，其最先进的技术平台 EUV 光刻没有竞争对手。同样，它在 DUV 内部面临的竞争非常有限，这两个平台对半导体制造都至关重要。半导体行业内家喻户晓的品牌属于制造商，但ASML等机械供应商通过广泛的技术知识和强大的工艺知识掌握着非常强大的护城河，如果所有潜在竞争对手试图竞争，他们将落后数年。</blockquote></p><p> It's hard to think of a better competitive situation, especially when operating in a sector forecasted to grow well above general GDP for many years to come. However, the market has long since recognized ASML's outstanding potential and potential journey, but still, it could be underestimating the potential.</p><p><blockquote>很难想象还有比这更好的竞争形势了，尤其是在一个预计未来许多年增长将远高于整体GDP的行业。然而，市场早已认识到 ASML 的杰出潜力和潜在历程，但仍然可能低估了其潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> I recently wrote an article concerning how youcan’t own too much semiconductor exposure. Having decomposed the value chain for semiconductor manufacturing, I received a number of questions concerning ASML in the comment sections and decided to conduct this follow-up. I’ve selected ASML due to its unique marketplace position and potential.</p><p><blockquote>我最近写了一篇文章，讲述了如何避免拥有太多半导体曝光。在分解了半导体制造的价值链后，我在评论部分收到了许多关于ASML的问题，并决定进行后续跟进。我选择 ASML 是因为它独特的市场地位和潜力。</blockquote></p><p> Personally I have exposure to the manufacturing level of the semiconductor value chain through shares in both Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), but venturing further back into the value chain, and investors can be allowed to invest in a broader manner into the industry, as the suppliers of machinery and software obtain a broader exposure to most of the manufacturers making it immensely interesting as you can adopt the mantra of “I don’t really mind who wins, as long as they are racing”. As such, potential exposure upstream in the value chain carries great interest.</p><p><blockquote>就我个人而言，我通过持有德州仪器公司（TXN）和博通公司（AVGO）的股票，接触到了半导体价值链的制造层面，但如果进一步深入价值链，投资者就可以以更广泛的方式投资该行业，因为机械和软件供应商可以更广泛地接触到大多数制造商，这使得它变得非常有趣，因为你可以采用 “我真的不介意谁赢，只要他们在竞争 ”的口头禅。因此，价值链上游的潜在风险敞口引起了极大的兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Marketplace and Value Drivers For Years To Come</b></p><p><blockquote><b>未来几年的市场和价值驱动因素</b></blockquote></p><p> For ASML followers it’s no surprise at this point, but ASML is dominant within the product offering that will drive its revenue for the coming decade, EUV (Extreme ultraviolet lithography) technology. My personal take is that it is hard to find a company in a similarly advantageous competitive position anywhere in any industry. ASML provides equipment for lithography, the art of printing the chip features via light sources, in several light spectrums with its most advanced being EUV which is the next-gen to DUV (deep ultraviolet lithography). For DUV there are competitors albeit ASML has a massive market share above 85%. The difference between DUV and EUV is that EUV operates at a light wavelength almost 15 times smaller than DUV (13.5nm compared to 193nm).</p><p><blockquote>对于 ASML 的追随者来说，这并不奇怪，但 ASML 在未来十年将推动其收入的产品中占据主导地位，那就是 EUV（极紫外光刻）技术。我个人的看法是，在任何行业的任何地方，都很难找到一家处于类似优势竞争地位的公司。ASML 提供光刻设备，光刻是通过光源以多种光谱打印芯片特征的艺术，其中最先进的是 EUV，它是 DUV（深紫外光刻）的下一代。对于 DUV 来说，尽管 ASML 拥有超过 85% 的巨大市场份额，但仍有竞争对手。DUV和EUV之间的区别在于，EUV在比DUV小近15倍的光波长（13.5nm对193nm）下工作。</blockquote></p><p> Actually, the semiconductor manufacturers for the leading edge chips such as 5nm and soon to be 3nm are deeply dependent on the EUV machinery. Without it, it simply wouldn’t be possible. That sounds like a pretty good bargain for those who can manufacture these machines, but there is only one company that is able to do it, and that is ASML. For every generation of new EUV machinery, its yield becomes better with higher throughput and reduced downtime issues, meaning that ASML is effectively lightyears ahead of anyone who would try to pick up the gauntlet and challenge their dominant position.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，5nm和即将成为3nm等前沿芯片的半导体制造商严重依赖EUV机器。没有它，这根本不可能。对于那些能够制造这些机器的人来说，这听起来是一笔相当划算的交易，但只有一家公司能够做到这一点，那就是 ASML。对于每一代新的 EUV 机器，其产量都会随着更高的吞吐量和更少的停机问题而变得更好，这意味着 ASML 实际上领先于任何试图接受挑战并挑战其主导地位的人。</blockquote></p><p> This is an industry where everything is about process knowledge. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is able to produce 5nm chips because it was able to produce 7nm, and it will be able to produce 3nm because it can produce 5nm and has done that a million times over which is also why it was so detrimental to Intel Corp (INTC) that it had to acknowledge its persistent issues with the 7nm technology.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个一切都是关于过程知识的行业。台积电（TSM）能够生产5纳米芯片，因为它能够生产7纳米，它将能够生产3纳米，因为它可以生产5纳米，并且已经这样做了一百万次，这也是为什么它对英特尔公司（INTC）如此不利，以至于它不得不承认其在7纳米技术方面的持续问题。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Quite simply, there is no 3nm if you can’t do the 5nm, as also discussed in my previous article. Same goes for ASML as a competitor would be years and years behind ASML if they entered the EUV space as they would struggle with the same issues that have plagued ASML in its early days of EUV more than a decade ago. I’ve included a number of illustrations from their most recent investor day which took place in November 2018, with the next one to take place in September 2021.</p><p><blockquote>很简单，如果你做不到 5 纳米，就没有 3 纳米，正如我之前的文章中所讨论的那样。ASML 也是如此，因为如果竞争对手进入 EUV 领域，他们将落后 ASML 很多年，因为他们将面临十多年前 EUV 早期困扰 ASML 的同样问题。我收录了他们最近一次投资者日的一些插图，该活动于 2018 年 11 月举行，下一次将于 2021 年 9 月举行。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edaa6b5a77f99726bbae61b032b9c208\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 6.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML投资者日2018，EUV产品和商业机会，第6页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The picture above clearly illustrates the process knowledge having been picked up by ASML throughout its EUV lifetime. This has also translated into better EUV machinery for each new generation as also evident by its productivity improvements. Again, I can’t imagine a more favourable competitive situation for a company, given how much time and capital it would require for a competitor to adopt the EUV technology.</p><p><blockquote>上图清楚地说明了 ASML 在其 EUV 生命周期中获得的工艺知识。这也为每一代新产品带来了更好的 EUV 机械，生产率的提高也证明了这一点。同样，考虑到竞争对手采用 EUV 技术需要大量的时间和资金，我无法想象还有什么比这更有利的竞争形势了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85913766aea721e218e976e4f73349e5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 16.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML投资者日2018，EUV产品和商业机会，第16页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Semiconductor manufacturing is a cutthroat business with heavy R&amp;D spend (it took ASML €6 billion in R&amp;D spend to invent EUV) driving chip improvements according to Moore’s law, meaning that ASML is already working on the next-gen technology, referred to as High NA-EUV. High NA-EUV is still some time away, with the timeline below being slightly outdated, but its technology will significantly improve the EUV platform and power the industry beyond this decade. It takes time to develop the technology, improve yield and reduce downtime, but there is still plenty of opportunities for EUV in terms of marketplace expansion and margin improvement.</p><p><blockquote>根据摩尔定律，半导体制造是一个残酷的行业，研发支出巨大（ASML 花费了 60 亿欧元的研发支出才发明了 EUV）推动芯片改进，这意味着 ASML 已经在研究下一代技术，即高 NA-EUV。High NA-EUV 还需要一段时间，下面的时间表有点过时，但其技术将显着改善 EUV 平台，并在本十年后为行业提供动力。开发技术、提高良率和减少停机时间需要时间，但EUV在市场扩张和利润率提高方面仍然有很多机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7709f0f76b1619a31b32fc3330134005\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 21.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML投资者日2018，EUV产品和商业机会，第21页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ASML itself has laid out the expected path in terms of optimised margins through both add-ons facing the buyer side and upstream cost reductions facing their suppliers creating a sweet spot for the company effectively striving to achieve the same profitability profile as for its more mature DUV platform.</p><p><blockquote>ASML 本身已经通过面向买方的附加产品和面向供应商的上游成本降低，在优化利润率方面规划了预期路径，为公司创造了一个最佳点，有效地努力实现与其更成熟的 DUV 平台相同的盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/809661531ad423f613fb44c26e0b3352\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 25.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML投资者日2018，EUV产品和商业机会，第25页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If that wasn’t good enough, then add the fact that the semiconductor industry in general is expected to outpace general GDP for at least until 2028 with a CAGR of 8.6%. Recentcommunicationsby Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel and Samsung Electronics Company (OTC:SSNLF) shows the strength and growth potential for the sector with their combined CAPEX expectations going beyond $200 billion for the coming decade, with a significant chunk of that within the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>如果这还不够好，那么再加上半导体行业的整体增长率预计至少在 2028 年之前将超过整体 GDP，复合年增长率为 8.6%。台积电、英特尔和三星电子公司 (OTC: SSNLF) 的最新通讯显示了该行业的实力和增长潜力，他们对未来十年的资本支出合计预期将超过 2000 亿美元，其中很大一部分将在未来几年内实现。</blockquote></p><p> As can be seen in the illustration above, ASML expects increased customer value through upgrades, with their roadmap for DUV serving as an example in terms of how the revenue base could expand over the coming years for EUV as is the case for DUV via what the company has labelled installed base management.</p><p><blockquote>从上图可以看出，ASML 预计通过升级来增加客户价值，他们的 DUV 路线图就是一个例子，说明 EUV 的收入基础如何在未来几年扩大，就像 DUV 的情况一样通过该公司称之为安装基地管理。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8ef7940a4b888c50159e5b9db4c0634\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, DUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 10.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML投资者日2018，DUV产品和商业机会，第10页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> There is of course always the possibility of a serious contender entering the marketplace in order to try and challenge ASML, but companies have tried to enter the space when the technology was in its infancy having given up, meaning the prime threat would be the emergence of a new lithography technology arriving and doing to EUV what EUV did to DUV. Possible sure, likely, not so much. Just to hammer down the point, I’ve inserted a paragraph from ASML’s own description of how lithography plays its role.</p><p><blockquote>当然，总是有可能有一个强有力的竞争者进入市场，试图挑战 ASML，但公司在该技术还处于起步阶段时就试图进入该领域，但已经放弃了，这意味着主要威胁将是一种新的光刻技术的出现。到来并对 EUV 产生了 EUV 对 DUV 的影响。可能当然，很可能，没那么多。为了说明这一点，我插入了 ASML 自己对光刻技术如何发挥作用的描述中的一段话。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   “  <i>Lithography is a driving force in the creation of more powerful, faster and cheaper chips. The manufacturing of chips becomes increasingly complex as semiconductor feature sizes shrink, while the imperative to mass produce at the right cost remains. Our holistic lithography product portfolio helps to optimize production and enable affordable shrink by integrating lithography systems with computational modeling, as well as metrology and inspection solutions. A lithography system is essentially a projection system. Light is projected through a blueprint of the pattern that will be printed (known as a ‘mask’ or ‘reticle’). With the pattern encoded in the light, the system’s optics shrink and focus the pattern onto a photosensitive silicon wafer. After the pattern is printed, the system moves the wafer slightly and makes another copy on the wafer. This process is repeated until the wafer is covered in patterns, completing one layer of the wafer’s chips. To make an entire microchip, this process is repeated layer after layer, stacking the patterns to create an integrated circuit (IC). The simplest chips have around 10 layers, while the most complex can have over 150 layers. The size of the features to be printed varies depending on the layer, which means that different types of lithography systems are used for different layers – our latest-generation EUV systems for the most critical layers with the smallest features to ArF, KrF, and i-line DUV systems for less critical layers with larger features.</i>”  <i>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</i>  <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa32572971943844c4e71ddfc77559d6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"547\"><span>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</span></p><p><blockquote>“<i>光刻技术是创造更强大、更快、更便宜的芯片的驱动力。随着半导体特征尺寸的缩小，芯片的制造变得越来越复杂，而以合适的成本大规模生产的必要性仍然存在。我们的整体光刻产品组合通过将光刻系统与计算建模以及计量和检测解决方案相结合，帮助优化生产并实现经济实惠的收缩。光刻系统本质上是投影系统。光通过将被打印的图案的蓝图（称为“掩模”或“十字线”）投射。在光中编码图案后，系统的光学器件会收缩并将图案聚焦到光敏硅晶片上。图案被打印后，系统稍微移动晶圆，并在晶圆上制作另一份拷贝。重复这一过程，直到晶片被图案覆盖，完成一层晶片。为了制造整个微芯片，这个过程一层一层地重复，堆叠图案以创建集成电路（IC）。最简单的芯片大约有10层，而最复杂的芯片可以有150多层。要打印的特征尺寸因层而异，这意味着不同类型的光刻系统用于不同的层——我们最新一代的EUV系统用于功能最小的最关键层，而ArF、KrF和i-line DUV系统用于功能较小的不太关键层。</i>”<i>ASML 2020 年年度报告，光刻的作用，第 12 页。</i><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2020 年年度报告，光刻的作用，第 12 页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I believe most investors are familiar with confirmation bias, and if they aren’t, they should grab a book and educate themselves. Having read through this section, it can easily sound as if I as the author is suffering from confirmation bias given how strongly I’ve advocated for ASML’s position and competitive power. However, I’ve striven towards identifying situations that could severely impact ASML and being honest I can’t find it. There are of course the risks associated with geopolitical tension, which also showed itself in the stock price back in 2016, the risk of supply chain disruption as is currently transpiring across the industry and competition for talent. These are touched upon by the company itself in their annual report 2020 p. 21 and no industry comes without potential risks.</p><p><blockquote>我相信大多数投资者都熟悉确认偏差，如果不熟悉，他们应该拿起一本书来教育自己。读完这一部分后，鉴于我对 ASML 的地位和竞争力的大力倡导，作为作者，我很容易觉得自己患有确认性偏见。不过，我一直在努力找出可能严重影响 ASML 的情况，但老实说，我找不到。当然，还有与地缘政治紧张局势相关的风险，这也反映在 2016 年的股价上，以及目前整个行业正在发生的供应链中断的风险以及人才竞争。这些都是公司自己在2020年年度报告第21页中提到的，没有一个行业没有潜在的风险。</blockquote></p><p> So, to sum it all up:</p><p><blockquote>总而言之：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>ASML has pioneered EUV lithography, with no competitors in sight</li>  <li>EUV will enable the continuation of Moore’s Law and will drive long term value for ASML and its customers well into this decade</li>  <li>The semiconductor sector forecasted to grow at CAGR of 8.6% through 2028, outpacing general GDP with ASML being a key supplier to the manufacturers (foundries)</li>  <li>Strong industry CAPEX driving demand for ASML offerings</li>  <li>The path forward for expanding EUV business in terms of installed base management, margins improvement and manufacturer dependency on EUV machinery for leading edge chips</li>  <li>ASML is a crucial player for leading edge chip manufacturing</li> </ul> Sounds pretty good to me.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>ASML 开创了 EUV 光刻技术，看不到竞争对手</li><li>EUV 将使摩尔定律得以延续，并将推动 ASML 及其客户在未来十年内的长期价值</li><li>预计到 2028 年，半导体行业的复合年增长率将达到 8.6%，超过整体 GDP，ASML 是制造商（代工厂）的主要供应商</li><li>强劲的行业资本支出推动对 ASML 产品的需求</li><li>在安装基地管理、利润率提高以及制造商对领先芯片 EUV 机器的依赖方面扩展 EUV 业务的前进道路</li><li>ASML 是尖端芯片制造的重要参与者</li></ul>对我来说听起来不错。</blockquote></p><p> The Financial Performance and Development</p><p><blockquote>财务表现及发展</blockquote></p><p> ASML is doing well for itself as evident by the illustration below.</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，ASML 做得很好。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Strong revenue growth</li>  <li>Strong margin expansion</li>  <li>Strong improvement in free cash flow</li>  <li>Impressive operational improvements strengthening its moat through increased R&amp;D spend and IP portfolio</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7900753b1857ac9ad6fc705b9baad563\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"414\"><span>Annual Report 2020, p 7.</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>强劲的收入增长</li><li>强劲的利润率扩张</li><li>自由现金流大幅改善</li><li>令人印象深刻的运营改进通过增加研发支出和知识产权组合来巩固其护城河</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2020年年度报告，第7页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This was followed by a strong Q1-2021 performance with mouth-watering financials on both top and bottom line. However, for their Q2-2021 performance they are guiding for slightly lower revenue expansion at €4.1 billion with a gross margin of 49%, which is still above the long term average but closer to it. There is however no denying that the company is thriving in the current environment.</p><p><blockquote>随后是 2021 年第一季度的强劲表现，营收和利润都令人垂涎。然而，对于 2021 年第二季度的业绩，他们预计收入增长略有下降，为 41 亿欧元，毛利率为 49%，仍高于长期平均水平，但更接近长期平均水平。然而，不可否认的是，该公司在当前环境下蓬勃发展。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60ea4dedde41a918bd9e1fd307a9531f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 14.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2021年第一季度，第14页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> An interesting detail is the development within the installed base management as illustrated earlier in the article. The company is delivering on its promise with a strong development within this segment growing 29% YoY from 2019 to 2020, well beyond the total growth of 18%.</p><p><blockquote>一个有趣的细节是已安装基础管理中的发展，如本文前面所述。该公司正在兑现其承诺，该领域的强劲发展从 2019 年到 2020 年同比增长 29%，远远超过 18% 的总增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6966dcaf747d226d5de580187d4d3ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 8.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2021 年第一季度，第 8 页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The more interesting question however is whether the market estimates are underestimating the potential for ASML. An immensely hard question, but if we give it a look, I personally at least see the possibility of that being the case.</p><p><blockquote>然而，更有趣的问题是市场估计是否低估了 ASML 的潜力。这是一个非常困难的问题，但如果我们看一看，我个人至少看到了这种可能性。</blockquote></p><p> Are Analyst Consensus Estimates Under- or Over-Estimating ASML’s Potential?</p><p><blockquote>分析师的一致估计是低估了 ASML 的潜力还是高估了？</blockquote></p><p> ASML is well-covered by analysts offering estimates all the way through 2028, but with coverage waning once we go beyond 2025 which is the last year covered by more than one analyst. The current estimates show a revenue CAGR development of 11.1% from 2020 to 2028, but if we remove 2021, which shows stellar growth, the CAGR is 6.5%.</p><p><blockquote>ASML 在整个 2028 年之前都受到分析师的广泛关注，但一旦我们超过 2025 年（这是不止一位分析师关注的最后一年），覆盖范围就会减弱。目前的估计显示，从2020年到2028年，收入CAGR增长率为11.1%，但如果我们排除2021年，这显示出恒星增长，CAGR为6.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9adf4cebbce28dc7433186b5bd0827e8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Author's Own Creation, Source Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>作者自己的创作，来源寻求阿尔法。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Remember the sector as a whole is forecasted to exhibit growth at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028. These are all estimates which carry great uncertainty with no one able to reliably predict the future. However, it is worth noticing that revenue estimates for ASML are below the sector as a whole if the massive jump from 2020 to 2021 is left out of the equation. Average revenue growth from 2026 to 2028 is currently estimated to be 3.5%.</p><p><blockquote>请记住，预计到 2028 年，整个行业的复合年增长率将达到 8.6%。这些都是带有很大不确定性的估计，没有人能够可靠地预测未来。然而，值得注意的是，如果将 2020 年至 2021 年的大幅跃升排除在外，ASML 的收入预期将低于整个行业。目前预计2026年至2028年的平均收入增长率为3.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Considering some of the arguments in favour of why ASML’s outlook could be even more positive:</p><p><blockquote>考虑到一些支持 ASML 前景可能更加乐观的论点：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>General semiconductor industry CAGR 2020-2028 forecasted at 8.6%.</li>  <li>DUV CAGR 2020-2025forecastedat 8.4%, it is still ASML’s largest product category.</li>  <li>EUV CAGR 2020-2027forecastedat 12%.</li>  <li>ASML is a linchpin player to solve chip shortage through technology advancement and its machines define the performance of every electrical gadget we utilise in our daily lives.</li>  <li>ASML shows progress in its plan to widen the ecosystem for its machinery through \"Installed Base Management\" increasing the total addressable market by upwards of double digits percentage as 2018 sales were 20% installed base management and 2025 estimate is 50%.</li>  <li>ASML dominates the DUV immersion segment, the part of DUV with high margins as its two solecompetitorsin DUV, Nikon and Canon lack the means and capabilities.</li>  <li>As the market transitions to EUV, the demand for DUV willfollowas the chip stacking process benefits from both systems through its manufacturing.</li> </ul> This is without mentioning the potential price increases that could trickle down towards its customers as they could be fighting over ASML’s capacity due to its strong market position of 85% in DUV and monopoly within EUV while also bringing High NA-EUV to market by mid of this decade. Customers today pay roughly $130-150 million for EUV machines, while DUV machines come in at around $100 million. The largest hindrance to ASML overdelivering is its current capacity constraint in terms of ability to deliver EUV systems which is capped somewhere between 40 and 50 systems a year, with the company of course striving to expand that capacity constraint as demand builds up over the years. On the other hand, this could also be a driver for price increases as ASML strives to expand capacity.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>通用半导体行业2020-2028年CAGR预测为8.6%。</li><li>DUV 2020-2025 年复合年增长率预测为 8.4%，仍是 ASML 最大的产品类别。</li><li>EUV CAGR 2020-2027 预测为 12%。</li><li>ASML是通过技术进步解决芯片短缺的关键参与者，其机器定义了我们日常生活中使用的每一个电子设备的性能。</li><li>ASML 展示了其通过“安装基础管理”扩大机械生态系统的计划取得的进展，将总潜在市场增加了两位数以上，2018 年销售额为 20%，2025 年估计为 50%。</li><li>ASML 在 DUV 沉浸式细分市场占据主导地位，这是 DUV 中利润率较高的部分，因为其在 DUV 中唯一的两个竞争对手尼康和佳能缺乏手段和能力。</li><li>随着市场向 EUV 过渡，对 DUV 的需求也将随之增长。芯片堆叠工艺通过其制造受益于这两个系统。</li></ul>更不用说潜在的价格上涨，这些价格上涨可能会波及到其客户，因为ASML在DUV中占据85%的强势市场地位，在EUV中占据垄断地位，同时还将在本十年中期将高NA-EUV推向市场，因此他们可能会争夺ASML的产能。如今，客户为 EUV 机器支付大约 1.3-1.5 亿美元，而 DUV 机器的收入约为 1 亿美元。ASML 超额交付的最大障碍是其目前在交付 EUV 系统的能力方面的产能限制，每年上限为 40 至 50 个系统，随着需求的增长，该公司当然会努力扩大这一产能限制多年来。另一方面，随着 ASML 努力扩大产能，这也可能成为价格上涨的驱动因素。</blockquote></p><p> I will not try to construct an even bolder revenue guidance as it’s a cheap shot and frankly, no one has the capacity to accurately forecast if the current expectations will stand or whether they are too positive or negative. I just want to highlight that with everything going on and ASML’s market position in mind, I don’t consider it unreasonable that the company will do even better than currently anticipated.</p><p><blockquote>我不会试图制定一个更大胆的收入指引，因为这是一个廉价的机会，坦率地说，没有人有能力准确预测当前的预期是否会成立，或者它们是过于积极还是过于消极。我只想强调的是，考虑到目前发生的一切以及 ASML 的市场地位，我认为该公司的表现会比目前的预期还要好并非不合理。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> The stock price is an inch away from its 52-week high and has been on a tear since the beginning of 2020, really taking off since October 2020 from which it has doubled since.</p><p><blockquote>股价距离 52 周高点仅一步之遥，自 2020 年初以来一直处于上涨状态，自 2020 年 10 月以来真正起飞，此后已翻了一番。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/472c0e2f540c1d4ee2a7bbaec09379c0\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"453\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Market cap has exploded with all other parameters left in its wake having seen a significant expansion in price-earnings ratio despite a strong improvement in EPS and revenue. The stock market has long since recognised the story and potential of ASML with the Wall Street analyst target currently at $722 per share. Fair to say, there is no margin of safety if the analysts are correct in the predictions. Interestingly, out of the 30 analysts offering a price target, the percentage who are very bullish hasn’t been higher since 2016 with 56% stating a very bullish opinion. There is a mental exercise in staying cautious in terms of believing in such statements, not least because the stock has only known one direction for the last couple of years – upwards.</p><p><blockquote>尽管每股收益和收入强劲改善，但市盈率却大幅扩大，随后所有其他参数都出现了爆炸式增长。股市早已认识到 ASML 的故事和潜力，华尔街分析师目前的目标是每股 722 美元。公平地说，如果分析师的预测是正确的，就没有安全边际。有趣的是，在提供目标价的 30 位分析师中，非常看涨的比例自 2016 年以来从未更高，56% 的分析师表示非常看涨。在相信此类声明时保持谨慎是一种心理练习，尤其是因为该股在过去几年中只知道一个方向——上涨。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The significance of the expansion in typical ratios is evident when considered over a five-year horizon as shown below. Both P/E and P/S have expanded massively standing at 55 and 15.7 respectively. However, the company is in a very different place compared to three years ago.</p><p><blockquote>当考虑如下所示的五年期限时，典型比率扩张的重要性是显而易见的。市盈率和市盈率均大幅增长，分别为 55 和 15.7。然而，与三年前相比，该公司处于一个非常不同的位置。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c691d4662a793b5de150add67a3a4e11\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Revenue is growing significantly faster than previously with gross margin and free cash flow also having improved. Due to this positive development, ASML is also returning plenty of capital to its shareholders with a share buyback program of €10 billion for 2021, which unfortunately only translates to a reduction of 0.5% of the current float.</p><p><blockquote>收入增长速度明显快于以前，毛利率和自由现金流也有所改善。由于这一积极进展，ASML 还通过 2021 年 100 亿欧元的股票回购计划向股东返还大量资本，但不幸的是，该计划仅导致当前流通股减少 0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7341584d3ba7b1db51e1eef3c4bdaccd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The strong belief in ASML going forward is also clearly illustrated by the estimates for the coming years, which throughout the most recent years has been steadily climbing due to the company’s strong portfolio and market dominance.</p><p><blockquote>对 ASML 未来几年的预测也清楚地表明了对未来几年的坚定信心，由于该公司强大的产品组合和市场主导地位，近年来该公司的预测一直在稳步攀升。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b262aeeb8d75114dbc3e45bf9464c830\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With all that said, I believe that current shareholders do well for themselves in holding on to their existing shares as this company has a great outlook. I’ve had my eyes on ASML for the last year, and I’m extremely sad to say I never got around to looking into it properly, but only looked it at from afar and concluded that the stock might be due for a good pullback at one point. Little did I know.</p><p><blockquote>综上所述，我相信现有股东持有现有股份对自己有好处，因为这家公司前景光明。过去一年，我一直在关注 ASML，我非常遗憾地说，我从来没有抽出时间好好研究过它，只是远远地看了一眼，得出的结论是，该股可能会在某个时候出现一次不错的回调。我一点也不知道。</blockquote></p><p> As Peter Lynch famously said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves,” as would also be true for someone like me who didn’t act in time. I’m still massively fascinated by ASML’s outlook and potential journey, but at the current price, I remain hesitant about the prospects and the lack of margin of safety.</p><p><blockquote>正如彼得-林奇（Peter Lynch）的名言：“投资者因准备调整或试图预测调整而损失的资金远远多于调整本身损失的资金”，对于像我这样没有及时采取行动的人来说也是如此。我仍然对 ASML 的前景和潜在发展历程非常着迷，但以目前的价格来看，我对其前景和缺乏安全边际仍然犹豫不决。</blockquote></p><p> There is a lot of potential for ASML to grow into its valuation, and if one is to add that current levels, I’d say dollar-cost averaging is a prudent strategy for the current price, while reserving the possibility to back up the truck for a full load if we see a pullback before end of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>ASML 的估值有很大的增长潜力，如果要加上目前的水平，我认为美元成本平均法是当前价格的谨慎策略，同时如果我们在 2021 年底前看到回调，则保留为满载货车备份的可能性。</blockquote></p><p> As can be seen below, it is not uncommon for ASML to experience a 10% setback once or twice a year.</p><p><blockquote>从下面可以看出，ASML每年经历一两次10%的挫折并不罕见。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad90b51964870f5475b596fe16f63317\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> ASML is dominant within its two main offerings, the DUV and EUV lithography. Its market is backed by incredibly strong tailwinds as all our gadgets, electrical cars, 5G, datacentres, cloud servers, etc. are heavily reliant on the technology platform offered by ASML. A true innovator with no real competition in sight, feeding machinery and tools to an industry expected to grow at CAGR 8.6% through 2028 with potentially even stronger growth for both its DUV and EUV platforms while also expecting margin expansion.</p><p><blockquote>ASML 在其两大主要产品（DUV 和 EUV 光刻）中占据主导地位。它的市场得到了令人难以置信的强劲顺风的支持，因为我们所有的小工具、电动汽车、5G、数据中心、云服务器等。严重依赖ASML提供的技术平台。一家真正的创新者，没有真正的竞争，为预计到 2028 年复合年增长率将达到 8.6% 的行业提供机械和工具，其 DUV 和 EUV 平台的增长可能会更加强劲，同时还预计利润率将扩大。</blockquote></p><p> There is little evil to be said about ASML, but unfortunately, the stock market has long since recognised its amazing story and potential. With such a strong outlook in sight, existing shareholders do well for themselves in holding onto their shares and just enjoy the journey ahead, but for the prospective shareholders, there appears to be a little margin of safety with the market cap having expanded significantly recently and the stock trading just an inch shy of its 52 week high.</p><p><blockquote>ASML 没有什么坏话可说，但不幸的是，股市早已认识到其惊人的故事和潜力。有了如此强劲的前景，现有股东在持有股票方面做得很好，只是享受未来的旅程，但对于潜在股东来说，随着市值最近大幅扩大，似乎还有一点安全边际。股票交易距离 52 周高点仅一英寸。</blockquote></p><p> As Peter Lynch said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” The exact fallacy I’ve fallen victim to as I’ve looked at ASML from afar for quite a while. Despite the recent expansion in market cap and multiples, there could be made a case for current estimates underestimating ASML’s true potential, but any forecast extending 5-10 years into the future comes with extreme uncertainty and guesstimation. As I’ve shown, ASML’s share price is prone to setbacks once or twice a year allowing dollar-cost averaging to serve as a method to acquire exposure to the company slowly building a position along the way.</p><p><blockquote>正如彼得-林奇（Peter Lynch）所说，“投资者因准备调整或试图预测调整而损失的资金远远多于调整本身损失的资金”。这正是我在很长一段时间里从远处看待 ASML 时陷入的谬误。尽管最近市值和市盈率有所扩大，但目前的估计可能低估了 ASML 的真实潜力，但任何将未来 5-10 年的预测都伴随着极大的不确定性和猜测。正如我所展示的，ASML 的股价每年容易出现一到两次挫折，因此美元成本平均法可以作为一种方法，在此过程中慢慢建仓，从而获得对公司的敞口。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435422-asml-market-could-be-underestimating-its-potential\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ASML":"阿斯麦"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435422-asml-market-could-be-underestimating-its-potential","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168762020","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.\nDUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 12% through 2027.\nASML holds a monopoly within EUV and faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms absolutely vital for the semiconductor manufacturing process.\nA true innovator, ASML commands an outstanding position and growth outlook but the stock market has long since recognized the potential.\nExisting shareholders do well for themselves in just enjoying the ride, but there is little margin of safety left for prospective shareholders who might dip their toes into the water through dollar-cost averaging to benefit from the strong tailwinds powering ASML.\n\nMACRO PHOTO/iStock via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis\nASML Holding (ASML) commands a market position like no one else with not a competitor in sight for its most advanced technological platform, EUV lithography. Similarly, it faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms vital for semiconductor manufacturing. The household names within the semiconductor industry belong to the manufacturers, but the machinery providers, such as ASML, command very strong moats through extensive technological knowledge and strong process knowledge leaving all potential competitors years behind if they should ever try to compete.\nIt's hard to think of a better competitive situation, especially when operating in a sector forecasted to grow well above general GDP for many years to come. However, the market has long since recognized ASML's outstanding potential and potential journey, but still, it could be underestimating the potential.\nIntroduction\nI recently wrote an article concerning how youcan’t own too much semiconductor exposure. Having decomposed the value chain for semiconductor manufacturing, I received a number of questions concerning ASML in the comment sections and decided to conduct this follow-up. I’ve selected ASML due to its unique marketplace position and potential.\nPersonally I have exposure to the manufacturing level of the semiconductor value chain through shares in both Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), but venturing further back into the value chain, and investors can be allowed to invest in a broader manner into the industry, as the suppliers of machinery and software obtain a broader exposure to most of the manufacturers making it immensely interesting as you can adopt the mantra of “I don’t really mind who wins, as long as they are racing”. As such, potential exposure upstream in the value chain carries great interest.\nThe Marketplace and Value Drivers For Years To Come\nFor ASML followers it’s no surprise at this point, but ASML is dominant within the product offering that will drive its revenue for the coming decade, EUV (Extreme ultraviolet lithography) technology. My personal take is that it is hard to find a company in a similarly advantageous competitive position anywhere in any industry. ASML provides equipment for lithography, the art of printing the chip features via light sources, in several light spectrums with its most advanced being EUV which is the next-gen to DUV (deep ultraviolet lithography). For DUV there are competitors albeit ASML has a massive market share above 85%. The difference between DUV and EUV is that EUV operates at a light wavelength almost 15 times smaller than DUV (13.5nm compared to 193nm).\nActually, the semiconductor manufacturers for the leading edge chips such as 5nm and soon to be 3nm are deeply dependent on the EUV machinery. Without it, it simply wouldn’t be possible. That sounds like a pretty good bargain for those who can manufacture these machines, but there is only one company that is able to do it, and that is ASML. For every generation of new EUV machinery, its yield becomes better with higher throughput and reduced downtime issues, meaning that ASML is effectively lightyears ahead of anyone who would try to pick up the gauntlet and challenge their dominant position.\nThis is an industry where everything is about process knowledge. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is able to produce 5nm chips because it was able to produce 7nm, and it will be able to produce 3nm because it can produce 5nm and has done that a million times over which is also why it was so detrimental to Intel Corp (INTC) that it had to acknowledge its persistent issues with the 7nm technology.\nQuite simply, there is no 3nm if you can’t do the 5nm, as also discussed in my previous article. Same goes for ASML as a competitor would be years and years behind ASML if they entered the EUV space as they would struggle with the same issues that have plagued ASML in its early days of EUV more than a decade ago. I’ve included a number of illustrations from their most recent investor day which took place in November 2018, with the next one to take place in September 2021.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 6.\nThe picture above clearly illustrates the process knowledge having been picked up by ASML throughout its EUV lifetime. This has also translated into better EUV machinery for each new generation as also evident by its productivity improvements. Again, I can’t imagine a more favourable competitive situation for a company, given how much time and capital it would require for a competitor to adopt the EUV technology.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 16.\nSemiconductor manufacturing is a cutthroat business with heavy R&D spend (it took ASML €6 billion in R&D spend to invent EUV) driving chip improvements according to Moore’s law, meaning that ASML is already working on the next-gen technology, referred to as High NA-EUV. High NA-EUV is still some time away, with the timeline below being slightly outdated, but its technology will significantly improve the EUV platform and power the industry beyond this decade. It takes time to develop the technology, improve yield and reduce downtime, but there is still plenty of opportunities for EUV in terms of marketplace expansion and margin improvement.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 21.\nASML itself has laid out the expected path in terms of optimised margins through both add-ons facing the buyer side and upstream cost reductions facing their suppliers creating a sweet spot for the company effectively striving to achieve the same profitability profile as for its more mature DUV platform.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 25.\nIf that wasn’t good enough, then add the fact that the semiconductor industry in general is expected to outpace general GDP for at least until 2028 with a CAGR of 8.6%. Recentcommunicationsby Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel and Samsung Electronics Company (OTC:SSNLF) shows the strength and growth potential for the sector with their combined CAPEX expectations going beyond $200 billion for the coming decade, with a significant chunk of that within the coming years.\nAs can be seen in the illustration above, ASML expects increased customer value through upgrades, with their roadmap for DUV serving as an example in terms of how the revenue base could expand over the coming years for EUV as is the case for DUV via what the company has labelled installed base management.\nASML Investor Day 2018, DUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 10.\nThere is of course always the possibility of a serious contender entering the marketplace in order to try and challenge ASML, but companies have tried to enter the space when the technology was in its infancy having given up, meaning the prime threat would be the emergence of a new lithography technology arriving and doing to EUV what EUV did to DUV. Possible sure, likely, not so much. Just to hammer down the point, I’ve inserted a paragraph from ASML’s own description of how lithography plays its role.\n\n “\n Lithography is a driving force in the creation of more powerful, faster and cheaper chips. The manufacturing of chips becomes increasingly complex as semiconductor feature sizes shrink, while the imperative to mass produce at the right cost remains. Our holistic lithography product portfolio helps to optimize production and enable affordable shrink by integrating lithography systems with computational modeling, as well as metrology and inspection solutions. A lithography system is essentially a projection system. Light is projected through a blueprint of the pattern that will be printed (known as a ‘mask’ or ‘reticle’). With the pattern encoded in the light, the system’s optics shrink and focus the pattern onto a photosensitive silicon wafer. After the pattern is printed, the system moves the wafer slightly and makes another copy on the wafer. This process is repeated until the wafer is covered in patterns, completing one layer of the wafer’s chips. To make an entire microchip, this process is repeated layer after layer, stacking the patterns to create an integrated circuit (IC). The simplest chips have around 10 layers, while the most complex can have over 150 layers. The size of the features to be printed varies depending on the layer, which means that different types of lithography systems are used for different layers – our latest-generation EUV systems for the most critical layers with the smallest features to ArF, KrF, and i-line DUV systems for less critical layers with larger features.”\n ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.\n\nASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.\nI believe most investors are familiar with confirmation bias, and if they aren’t, they should grab a book and educate themselves. Having read through this section, it can easily sound as if I as the author is suffering from confirmation bias given how strongly I’ve advocated for ASML’s position and competitive power. However, I’ve striven towards identifying situations that could severely impact ASML and being honest I can’t find it. There are of course the risks associated with geopolitical tension, which also showed itself in the stock price back in 2016, the risk of supply chain disruption as is currently transpiring across the industry and competition for talent. These are touched upon by the company itself in their annual report 2020 p. 21 and no industry comes without potential risks.\nSo, to sum it all up:\n\nASML has pioneered EUV lithography, with no competitors in sight\nEUV will enable the continuation of Moore’s Law and will drive long term value for ASML and its customers well into this decade\nThe semiconductor sector forecasted to grow at CAGR of 8.6% through 2028, outpacing general GDP with ASML being a key supplier to the manufacturers (foundries)\nStrong industry CAPEX driving demand for ASML offerings\nThe path forward for expanding EUV business in terms of installed base management, margins improvement and manufacturer dependency on EUV machinery for leading edge chips\nASML is a crucial player for leading edge chip manufacturing\n\nSounds pretty good to me.\nThe Financial Performance and Development\nASML is doing well for itself as evident by the illustration below.\n\nStrong revenue growth\nStrong margin expansion\nStrong improvement in free cash flow\nImpressive operational improvements strengthening its moat through increased R&D spend and IP portfolio\n\nAnnual Report 2020, p 7.\nThis was followed by a strong Q1-2021 performance with mouth-watering financials on both top and bottom line. However, for their Q2-2021 performance they are guiding for slightly lower revenue expansion at €4.1 billion with a gross margin of 49%, which is still above the long term average but closer to it. There is however no denying that the company is thriving in the current environment.\nASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 14.\nAn interesting detail is the development within the installed base management as illustrated earlier in the article. The company is delivering on its promise with a strong development within this segment growing 29% YoY from 2019 to 2020, well beyond the total growth of 18%.\nASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 8.\nThe more interesting question however is whether the market estimates are underestimating the potential for ASML. An immensely hard question, but if we give it a look, I personally at least see the possibility of that being the case.\nAre Analyst Consensus Estimates Under- or Over-Estimating ASML’s Potential?\nASML is well-covered by analysts offering estimates all the way through 2028, but with coverage waning once we go beyond 2025 which is the last year covered by more than one analyst. The current estimates show a revenue CAGR development of 11.1% from 2020 to 2028, but if we remove 2021, which shows stellar growth, the CAGR is 6.5%.\nAuthor's Own Creation, Source Seeking Alpha.\nRemember the sector as a whole is forecasted to exhibit growth at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028. These are all estimates which carry great uncertainty with no one able to reliably predict the future. However, it is worth noticing that revenue estimates for ASML are below the sector as a whole if the massive jump from 2020 to 2021 is left out of the equation. Average revenue growth from 2026 to 2028 is currently estimated to be 3.5%.\nConsidering some of the arguments in favour of why ASML’s outlook could be even more positive:\n\nGeneral semiconductor industry CAGR 2020-2028 forecasted at 8.6%.\nDUV CAGR 2020-2025forecastedat 8.4%, it is still ASML’s largest product category.\nEUV CAGR 2020-2027forecastedat 12%.\nASML is a linchpin player to solve chip shortage through technology advancement and its machines define the performance of every electrical gadget we utilise in our daily lives.\nASML shows progress in its plan to widen the ecosystem for its machinery through \"Installed Base Management\" increasing the total addressable market by upwards of double digits percentage as 2018 sales were 20% installed base management and 2025 estimate is 50%.\nASML dominates the DUV immersion segment, the part of DUV with high margins as its two solecompetitorsin DUV, Nikon and Canon lack the means and capabilities.\nAs the market transitions to EUV, the demand for DUV willfollowas the chip stacking process benefits from both systems through its manufacturing.\n\nThis is without mentioning the potential price increases that could trickle down towards its customers as they could be fighting over ASML’s capacity due to its strong market position of 85% in DUV and monopoly within EUV while also bringing High NA-EUV to market by mid of this decade. Customers today pay roughly $130-150 million for EUV machines, while DUV machines come in at around $100 million. The largest hindrance to ASML overdelivering is its current capacity constraint in terms of ability to deliver EUV systems which is capped somewhere between 40 and 50 systems a year, with the company of course striving to expand that capacity constraint as demand builds up over the years. On the other hand, this could also be a driver for price increases as ASML strives to expand capacity.\nI will not try to construct an even bolder revenue guidance as it’s a cheap shot and frankly, no one has the capacity to accurately forecast if the current expectations will stand or whether they are too positive or negative. I just want to highlight that with everything going on and ASML’s market position in mind, I don’t consider it unreasonable that the company will do even better than currently anticipated.\nValuation\nThe stock price is an inch away from its 52-week high and has been on a tear since the beginning of 2020, really taking off since October 2020 from which it has doubled since.\nData by YCharts\nMarket cap has exploded with all other parameters left in its wake having seen a significant expansion in price-earnings ratio despite a strong improvement in EPS and revenue. The stock market has long since recognised the story and potential of ASML with the Wall Street analyst target currently at $722 per share. Fair to say, there is no margin of safety if the analysts are correct in the predictions. Interestingly, out of the 30 analysts offering a price target, the percentage who are very bullish hasn’t been higher since 2016 with 56% stating a very bullish opinion. There is a mental exercise in staying cautious in terms of believing in such statements, not least because the stock has only known one direction for the last couple of years – upwards.\nThe significance of the expansion in typical ratios is evident when considered over a five-year horizon as shown below. Both P/E and P/S have expanded massively standing at 55 and 15.7 respectively. However, the company is in a very different place compared to three years ago.\nData by YCharts\nRevenue is growing significantly faster than previously with gross margin and free cash flow also having improved. Due to this positive development, ASML is also returning plenty of capital to its shareholders with a share buyback program of €10 billion for 2021, which unfortunately only translates to a reduction of 0.5% of the current float.\nData by YCharts\nThe strong belief in ASML going forward is also clearly illustrated by the estimates for the coming years, which throughout the most recent years has been steadily climbing due to the company’s strong portfolio and market dominance.\nData by YCharts\nWith all that said, I believe that current shareholders do well for themselves in holding on to their existing shares as this company has a great outlook. I’ve had my eyes on ASML for the last year, and I’m extremely sad to say I never got around to looking into it properly, but only looked it at from afar and concluded that the stock might be due for a good pullback at one point. Little did I know.\nAs Peter Lynch famously said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves,” as would also be true for someone like me who didn’t act in time. I’m still massively fascinated by ASML’s outlook and potential journey, but at the current price, I remain hesitant about the prospects and the lack of margin of safety.\nThere is a lot of potential for ASML to grow into its valuation, and if one is to add that current levels, I’d say dollar-cost averaging is a prudent strategy for the current price, while reserving the possibility to back up the truck for a full load if we see a pullback before end of 2021.\nAs can be seen below, it is not uncommon for ASML to experience a 10% setback once or twice a year.\nData by YCharts\nConclusion\nASML is dominant within its two main offerings, the DUV and EUV lithography. Its market is backed by incredibly strong tailwinds as all our gadgets, electrical cars, 5G, datacentres, cloud servers, etc. are heavily reliant on the technology platform offered by ASML. A true innovator with no real competition in sight, feeding machinery and tools to an industry expected to grow at CAGR 8.6% through 2028 with potentially even stronger growth for both its DUV and EUV platforms while also expecting margin expansion.\nThere is little evil to be said about ASML, but unfortunately, the stock market has long since recognised its amazing story and potential. With such a strong outlook in sight, existing shareholders do well for themselves in holding onto their shares and just enjoy the journey ahead, but for the prospective shareholders, there appears to be a little margin of safety with the market cap having expanded significantly recently and the stock trading just an inch shy of its 52 week high.\nAs Peter Lynch said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” The exact fallacy I’ve fallen victim to as I’ve looked at ASML from afar for quite a while. Despite the recent expansion in market cap and multiples, there could be made a case for current estimates underestimating ASML’s true potential, but any forecast extending 5-10 years into the future comes with extreme uncertainty and guesstimation. As I’ve shown, ASML’s share price is prone to setbacks once or twice a year allowing dollar-cost averaging to serve as a method to acquire exposure to the company slowly building a position along the way.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ASML":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":719,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166994916,"gmtCreate":1623987310735,"gmtModify":1634024564299,"author":{"id":"3579925209341859","authorId":"3579925209341859","name":"FlyHighFly","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a610574cab0fe2ee4e79d08d0eb9ce6c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579925209341859","authorIdStr":"3579925209341859"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like ans comment please","listText":"Like ans comment please","text":"Like ans comment please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166994916","repostId":"1112448941","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112448941","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623984287,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1112448941?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 10:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Crypto Mining Could Give Huge Boost to Seagate and Western Digital Stock<blockquote>加密货币挖矿可能会极大提振希捷和西部数据的股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112448941","media":"Barrons","summary":"Disk-drive demand continues to be warped by the rapid adoption of Chia, a cryptocurrency that relies","content":"<p>Disk-drive demand continues to be warped by the rapid adoption of Chia, a cryptocurrency that relies on large capacity drives to “farm” new coins.</p><p><blockquote>Chia 是一种依靠大容量驱动器 “种植 ”新硬币的加密货币，其快速普及继续扭曲磁盘驱动器的需求。</blockquote></p><p> , Chia uses a different model than other cryptocurrencies to create new coins. Most cryptocurrencies rely on a “proof of work” model to verify transactions: Miners solve complex mathematical problems that require lots of computational power to earn coins, which explains why traditional mining is so energy-intensive.</p><p><blockquote>Chia使用不同于其他加密货币的模型来创建新的硬币。大多数加密货币都依靠 “工作量证明 ”模型来验证交易：矿工解决复杂的数学问题，需要大量的计算能力来赚取硬币，这也解释了为什么传统挖矿如此耗能。</blockquote></p><p> Chia’s approach, by contrast, is tied to storage capacity committed to being used on the blockchain, rather than computational might. And that is warping demand for high-capacity drives.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，Chia 的方法与区块链上承诺使用的存储容量挂钩，而不是计算能力。这扭曲了对大容量驱动器的需求。</blockquote></p><p> In a research note on Thursday, Loop Capital analyst&nbsp;Ananda Baruah&nbsp;asserts that both&nbsp;SeagateTechnology Holdings (ticker: STX) and&nbsp;Western Digital(WDC)—which together control most of the world’s disk-drive production—could see a sustained boost to both pricing and profits from the Chia-driven acceleration in demand for high-capacity drives.</p><p><blockquote>Loop Capital 分析师阿南达-巴鲁阿（Ananda Baruah）在周四的一份研究报告中断言，希捷科技控股公司（股票代码：STX）和西部数据（WDC）共同控制着全球大部分磁盘驱动器生产，这两家公司的定价和利润都可能因 Chia 推动的大容量驱动器需求加速而持续提升。</blockquote></p><p> If that demand is sustained, he asserts, Seagate’s annualized earnings could reach $12 a share, well above the Street’s consensus forecasts of profits of $5.52 a share for the June 2021 fiscal year, $7.48 for fiscal 2022, and $7.71 for fiscal 2023. For Western Digital, he writes, profits could reach the $10-$12-per-share range, which compares to Street estimates of $3.83 for the June 2021 fiscal year, $8.87 for fiscal 2022, and $10.54 for fiscal 2023.</p><p><blockquote>他断言，如果这种需求持续下去，希捷的年化收益可能达到每股 12 美元，远高于华尔街一致预测的 2021 年 6 月财年每股利润 5.52 美元、2022 财年每股利润 7.48 美元和 2023 财年每股利润 7.71 美元。他写道，对于西部数据来说，每股利润可能达到 10 至 12 美元，而华尔街对 2021 年 6 月财年的预期为 3.83 美元，2022 财年为 8.87 美元，2023 财年为 10.54 美元。</blockquote></p><p> While the impact on drive pricing from Chia farming has largely been at the retail level and through distributors, Baruah sees the trend overflowing to contract pricing if the Chia trend is sustained, with higher prices possible for drives sold to both cloud-computing companies and major data-storage systems companies like Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE),Dell Technologies‘ (DELL) EMC unit, and&nbsp;NetApp(NTAP).</p><p><blockquote>虽然Chia farming对硬盘定价的影响主要是在零售层面和通过分销商，但Baruah认为，如果Chia趋势持续下去，这种趋势将溢出到合同定价，出售给云计算公司和主要数据存储系统公司的硬盘价格可能会更高，如慧与(HPE)、戴尔技术公司(Dell)的EMC部门和NetApp(NTAP)。</blockquote></p><p> He contends that both Seagate and Western Digital have begun holding conversations on shifting average selling prices higher. And he adds that “if all of this holds, gross margin expansion could have a long way to go.”</p><p><blockquote>他认为，希捷和西部数据都已经开始就提高平均售价进行对话。他补充说，“如果所有这些都成立，毛利率的扩张可能还有很长的路要走”。</blockquote></p><p> With distributor inventories depleted, Baruah adds, the hard-drive suppliers are “in prime position” heading into the calendar second half to see elevated pricing. He notes that the last time there was an event-driven price reset in the drive market was 10 years ago, when severe flooding in Thailand knocked out a substantial portion of drive manufacturing capacity. This time, he says, there is less excess capacity in the system, with limited suppliers of both recording heads and magnetic media constraining the ability to satisfy demand.</p><p><blockquote>Baruah 补充说，随着分销商库存的耗尽，硬盘供应商 “处于有利地位 ”进入下半年，价格将会上涨。他指出，上一次驱动器市场出现事件驱动的价格重置是在 10 年前，当时泰国的严重洪水摧毁了很大一部分驱动器制造产能。他说，这一次，系统中的过剩容量较少，记录头和磁介质供应商有限，限制了满足需求的能力。</blockquote></p><p> Baruah maintains his Buy ratings on both Seagate and Western Digital. He has price targets of $100 on Seagate and $90 on Western. Both stocks are lower in recent trading, with Seagate off 4.2%, at $88.82, and Western Digital down 3.4%, at $70.77. The&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;index is down 0.04%.</p><p><blockquote>巴鲁阿维持希捷和西部数据的买入评级。他对希捷的目标价为 100 美元，对西方的目标价为 90 美元。两只股票在最近的交易中都下跌，希捷下跌 4.2%，至 88.82 美元，西部数据下跌 3.4%，至 70.77 美元。标普500指数下跌0.04%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Crypto Mining Could Give Huge Boost to Seagate and Western Digital Stock<blockquote>加密货币挖矿可能会极大提振希捷和西部数据的股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCrypto Mining Could Give Huge Boost to Seagate and Western Digital Stock<blockquote>加密货币挖矿可能会极大提振希捷和西部数据的股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 10:44</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Disk-drive demand continues to be warped by the rapid adoption of Chia, a cryptocurrency that relies on large capacity drives to “farm” new coins.</p><p><blockquote>Chia 是一种依靠大容量驱动器 “种植 ”新硬币的加密货币，其快速普及继续扭曲磁盘驱动器的需求。</blockquote></p><p> , Chia uses a different model than other cryptocurrencies to create new coins. Most cryptocurrencies rely on a “proof of work” model to verify transactions: Miners solve complex mathematical problems that require lots of computational power to earn coins, which explains why traditional mining is so energy-intensive.</p><p><blockquote>Chia使用不同于其他加密货币的模型来创建新的硬币。大多数加密货币都依靠 “工作量证明 ”模型来验证交易：矿工解决复杂的数学问题，需要大量的计算能力来赚取硬币，这也解释了为什么传统挖矿如此耗能。</blockquote></p><p> Chia’s approach, by contrast, is tied to storage capacity committed to being used on the blockchain, rather than computational might. And that is warping demand for high-capacity drives.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，Chia 的方法与区块链上承诺使用的存储容量挂钩，而不是计算能力。这扭曲了对大容量驱动器的需求。</blockquote></p><p> In a research note on Thursday, Loop Capital analyst&nbsp;Ananda Baruah&nbsp;asserts that both&nbsp;SeagateTechnology Holdings (ticker: STX) and&nbsp;Western Digital(WDC)—which together control most of the world’s disk-drive production—could see a sustained boost to both pricing and profits from the Chia-driven acceleration in demand for high-capacity drives.</p><p><blockquote>Loop Capital 分析师阿南达-巴鲁阿（Ananda Baruah）在周四的一份研究报告中断言，希捷科技控股公司（股票代码：STX）和西部数据（WDC）共同控制着全球大部分磁盘驱动器生产，这两家公司的定价和利润都可能因 Chia 推动的大容量驱动器需求加速而持续提升。</blockquote></p><p> If that demand is sustained, he asserts, Seagate’s annualized earnings could reach $12 a share, well above the Street’s consensus forecasts of profits of $5.52 a share for the June 2021 fiscal year, $7.48 for fiscal 2022, and $7.71 for fiscal 2023. For Western Digital, he writes, profits could reach the $10-$12-per-share range, which compares to Street estimates of $3.83 for the June 2021 fiscal year, $8.87 for fiscal 2022, and $10.54 for fiscal 2023.</p><p><blockquote>他断言，如果这种需求持续下去，希捷的年化收益可能达到每股 12 美元，远高于华尔街一致预测的 2021 年 6 月财年每股利润 5.52 美元、2022 财年每股利润 7.48 美元和 2023 财年每股利润 7.71 美元。他写道，对于西部数据来说，每股利润可能达到 10 至 12 美元，而华尔街对 2021 年 6 月财年的预期为 3.83 美元，2022 财年为 8.87 美元，2023 财年为 10.54 美元。</blockquote></p><p> While the impact on drive pricing from Chia farming has largely been at the retail level and through distributors, Baruah sees the trend overflowing to contract pricing if the Chia trend is sustained, with higher prices possible for drives sold to both cloud-computing companies and major data-storage systems companies like Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE),Dell Technologies‘ (DELL) EMC unit, and&nbsp;NetApp(NTAP).</p><p><blockquote>虽然Chia farming对硬盘定价的影响主要是在零售层面和通过分销商，但Baruah认为，如果Chia趋势持续下去，这种趋势将溢出到合同定价，出售给云计算公司和主要数据存储系统公司的硬盘价格可能会更高，如慧与(HPE)、戴尔技术公司(Dell)的EMC部门和NetApp(NTAP)。</blockquote></p><p> He contends that both Seagate and Western Digital have begun holding conversations on shifting average selling prices higher. And he adds that “if all of this holds, gross margin expansion could have a long way to go.”</p><p><blockquote>他认为，希捷和西部数据都已经开始就提高平均售价进行对话。他补充说，“如果所有这些都成立，毛利率的扩张可能还有很长的路要走”。</blockquote></p><p> With distributor inventories depleted, Baruah adds, the hard-drive suppliers are “in prime position” heading into the calendar second half to see elevated pricing. He notes that the last time there was an event-driven price reset in the drive market was 10 years ago, when severe flooding in Thailand knocked out a substantial portion of drive manufacturing capacity. This time, he says, there is less excess capacity in the system, with limited suppliers of both recording heads and magnetic media constraining the ability to satisfy demand.</p><p><blockquote>Baruah 补充说，随着分销商库存的耗尽，硬盘供应商 “处于有利地位 ”进入下半年，价格将会上涨。他指出，上一次驱动器市场出现事件驱动的价格重置是在 10 年前，当时泰国的严重洪水摧毁了很大一部分驱动器制造产能。他说，这一次，系统中的过剩容量较少，记录头和磁介质供应商有限，限制了满足需求的能力。</blockquote></p><p> Baruah maintains his Buy ratings on both Seagate and Western Digital. He has price targets of $100 on Seagate and $90 on Western. Both stocks are lower in recent trading, with Seagate off 4.2%, at $88.82, and Western Digital down 3.4%, at $70.77. The&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;index is down 0.04%.</p><p><blockquote>巴鲁阿维持希捷和西部数据的买入评级。他对希捷的目标价为 100 美元，对西方的目标价为 90 美元。两只股票在最近的交易中都下跌，希捷下跌 4.2%，至 88.82 美元，西部数据下跌 3.4%，至 70.77 美元。标普500指数下跌0.04%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/crypto-mining-could-give-huge-boost-to-seagate-and-western-digital-stock-51623944488?mod=hp_DAY_7\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"WDC":"西部数据","STX":"希捷科技"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/crypto-mining-could-give-huge-boost-to-seagate-and-western-digital-stock-51623944488?mod=hp_DAY_7","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112448941","content_text":"Disk-drive demand continues to be warped by the rapid adoption of Chia, a cryptocurrency that relies on large capacity drives to “farm” new coins.\n, Chia uses a different model than other cryptocurrencies to create new coins. Most cryptocurrencies rely on a “proof of work” model to verify transactions: Miners solve complex mathematical problems that require lots of computational power to earn coins, which explains why traditional mining is so energy-intensive.\nChia’s approach, by contrast, is tied to storage capacity committed to being used on the blockchain, rather than computational might. And that is warping demand for high-capacity drives.\nIn a research note on Thursday, Loop Capital analyst Ananda Baruah asserts that both SeagateTechnology Holdings (ticker: STX) and Western Digital(WDC)—which together control most of the world’s disk-drive production—could see a sustained boost to both pricing and profits from the Chia-driven acceleration in demand for high-capacity drives.\nIf that demand is sustained, he asserts, Seagate’s annualized earnings could reach $12 a share, well above the Street’s consensus forecasts of profits of $5.52 a share for the June 2021 fiscal year, $7.48 for fiscal 2022, and $7.71 for fiscal 2023. For Western Digital, he writes, profits could reach the $10-$12-per-share range, which compares to Street estimates of $3.83 for the June 2021 fiscal year, $8.87 for fiscal 2022, and $10.54 for fiscal 2023.\nWhile the impact on drive pricing from Chia farming has largely been at the retail level and through distributors, Baruah sees the trend overflowing to contract pricing if the Chia trend is sustained, with higher prices possible for drives sold to both cloud-computing companies and major data-storage systems companies like Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE),Dell Technologies‘ (DELL) EMC unit, and NetApp(NTAP).\nHe contends that both Seagate and Western Digital have begun holding conversations on shifting average selling prices higher. And he adds that “if all of this holds, gross margin expansion could have a long way to go.”\nWith distributor inventories depleted, Baruah adds, the hard-drive suppliers are “in prime position” heading into the calendar second half to see elevated pricing. He notes that the last time there was an event-driven price reset in the drive market was 10 years ago, when severe flooding in Thailand knocked out a substantial portion of drive manufacturing capacity. This time, he says, there is less excess capacity in the system, with limited suppliers of both recording heads and magnetic media constraining the ability to satisfy demand.\nBaruah maintains his Buy ratings on both Seagate and Western Digital. He has price targets of $100 on Seagate and $90 on Western. Both stocks are lower in recent trading, with Seagate off 4.2%, at $88.82, and Western Digital down 3.4%, at $70.77. The S&P 500 index is down 0.04%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"STX":0.9,"WDC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":714,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":161306620,"gmtCreate":1623903441860,"gmtModify":1634026074399,"author":{"id":"3579925209341859","authorId":"3579925209341859","name":"FlyHighFly","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a610574cab0fe2ee4e79d08d0eb9ce6c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579925209341859","authorIdStr":"3579925209341859"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like and comment please","listText":"Like and comment please","text":"Like and comment please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/161306620","repostId":"2143379379","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1234,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169048954,"gmtCreate":1623810325278,"gmtModify":1634027760073,"author":{"id":"3579925209341859","authorId":"3579925209341859","name":"FlyHighFly","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a610574cab0fe2ee4e79d08d0eb9ce6c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579925209341859","authorIdStr":"3579925209341859"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Buy","listText":"Buy","text":"Buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169048954","repostId":"1109582645","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109582645","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623808952,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1109582645?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-16 10:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Goldman Sachs Changed Its Mind On Apple Stock<blockquote>高盛为何改变对苹果股票的看法</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109582645","media":"TheStreet","summary":"After being on the spotlight for latching on to his pessimism over Apple stock, even following stron","content":"<p>After being on the spotlight for latching on to his pessimism over Apple stock, even&nbsp;following strong quarterly results, famed bear Rod Hall at Goldman Sachs threw in the towel and&nbsp;changed his position on AAPLfrom sell to neutral. Last week, he gave an interview to CNBC and further elaborated on his decision.</p><p><blockquote>即使在强劲的季度业绩之后，高盛著名的熊市罗德·霍尔 (bear Rod Hall) 仍因坚持对苹果股票的悲观情绪而成为人们关注的焦点，但他认输了，并将他对 AAPL 的立场从卖出改为中性。上周，他接受了 CNBC 的采访，并进一步阐述了他的决定。</blockquote></p><p> The Apple Maven takes a closer look at this bear’s journey from highly skeptical to timidly optimistic about Apple shares.</p><p><blockquote>这位苹果专家仔细研究了这位熊市对苹果股票从高度怀疑到胆怯乐观的历程。</blockquote></p><p> <b>iPhone at the center of the bear case</b></p><p><blockquote><b>熊壳中心的iPhone</b></blockquote></p><p> At the core of Goldman Sachs’ sell rating on Apple stock was the Cupertino company's challenges at meeting iPhone sales growth metrics going forward. Rod Hall explained it:</p><p><blockquote>高盛给予苹果股票卖出评级的核心是这家库比蒂诺公司在未来实现 iPhone 销售增长指标方面面临的挑战。罗德·霍尔解释道：</blockquote></p><p>   “Apple continues to show strong execution, but we see fundamentals more likely to disappoint in 2021 as the long-anticipated 5G iPhone fails to meet optimistic consensus expectations and services revenue growth slows.”  To be fair, Apple’s most recent financial results had been far from exhilarating ahead of Goldman’s stock rating upgrade. The Cupertino company's main revenue generator, the iPhone, had produced timid results in 2020, making some wonder if smartphone sales would disappoint&nbsp;at the start of the 5G cycle.</p><p><blockquote>“苹果继续表现出强劲的执行力，但我们认为，由于期待已久的 5G iPhone 未能达到乐观的共识预期，服务收入增长放缓，2021 年的基本面更有可能令人失望。”平心而论，在高盛上调股票评级之前，苹果最近的财务业绩远非令人鼓舞。这家库比蒂诺公司的主要收入来源iPhone在2020年的业绩表现不佳，这让一些人怀疑智能手机销售是否会在5G周期开始时令人失望。</blockquote></p><p> The plateauing in smartphone sales preceded the pandemic year. Based on data from third party-research companies Gartner and Strategy Analytics, 187 million iPhones were sold in 2019, fewer than the 217 million of 2018. And from 2019 to 2020, there was an unprecedented decrease in iPhone revenues: from $142 billion to $138 billion last year.</p><p><blockquote>智能手机销量在疫情年之前就已趋于稳定。根据第三方研究公司Gartner和Strategy Analytics的数据，2019年iPhone的销量为1.87亿部，低于2018年的2.17亿部。而从2019年到2020年，iPhone的收入出现了前所未有的下降：从去年的1420亿美元降至1380亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, and based on recent trends, Rod Hall’s bearishness towards the iPhone seemed reasonably justifiable. What had been missing to tip Apple stock over, in the analyst’s view, was a negative catalyst. He believed that the COVID-19 pandemic could be it.</p><p><blockquote>因此，从最近的趋势来看，罗德-霍尔对 iPhone 的看跌似乎是有道理的。在这位分析师看来，苹果股市上涨所缺少的是一个负面催化剂。他认为新冠肺炎疫情可能就是它。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89631d8083d43e0daee7828d45e7a67a\" tg-width=\"627\" tg-height=\"453\"><span>Figure 1: iPhone quarterly revenue ($bn).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：iPhone季度收入（十亿美元）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>When Goldman Sachs fell off the horse</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当高盛从马背上摔下来</b></blockquote></p><p> Goldman’s rating change on AAPL came in April, after&nbsp;the Cupertino company crushed expectations&nbsp;and released a blowout earnings report. Fiscal second quarter 2021 marked a turning point in iPhone 12 sales, after Apple faced delays&nbsp;in the launch of the new device.</p><p><blockquote>高盛在 4 月份改变了对 AAPL 的评级，此前这家库比蒂诺公司超出了预期，发布了一份井喷的财报。在苹果面临新设备推出延迟后，2021 财年第二财季标志着 iPhone 12 销售的转折点。</blockquote></p><p> Apple reported iPhone revenues of $47.9 billion versus Wall Street’s consensus $41.5 billion. Year-over-year, the top-line increase was a staggering $19 billion, representing growth of 65%.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公布的 iPhone 营收为 479 亿美元，而华尔街普遍预期为 415 亿美元。与去年同期相比，营收增长了惊人的 190 亿美元，增长了 65%。</blockquote></p><p> These numbers probably caught Goldman’s Rod Hall flat-footed.</p><p><blockquote>这些数字可能让高盛的罗德-霍尔措手不及。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How Goldman Sachs sees Apple going forward</b></p><p><blockquote><b>高盛如何看待苹果的未来</b></blockquote></p><p> According to Goldman, the neutral position on AAPL is justified by one key metric: revenues per user. The analyst believes that growth in this metric should be in line with U.S. GDP. He points out that Apple's revenues per user have remained static in recent years, only rising during the pandemic due to stay-at-home trends.</p><p><blockquote>高盛表示，对 AAPL 的中立立场有一个关键指标是合理的：每用户收入。该分析师认为，这一指标的增长应该与美国GDP保持一致。他指出，苹果的每用户收入近年来一直保持不变，只是在疫情期间由于居家趋势而有所上升。</blockquote></p><p> On the bullish side of the argument, Rod Hall sees the importance of privacy, and thinks that Apple could benefit from increased demand for being an advocate of user data protection. On the bearish side, the analyst remains skeptical that the services segment will grow as much as expected, and that only about 20% to 25% of active users will pay for Apple services.</p><p><blockquote>从乐观的角度来看，Rod Hall看到了隐私的重要性，并认为苹果可以从成为用户数据保护倡导者的日益增长的需求中受益。从悲观的角度来看，分析师仍然怀疑服务领域能否像预期那样增长，并且只有大约 20% 至 25% 的活跃用户会为苹果服务付费。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Apple Maven's take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果专家的看法</b></blockquote></p><p> Rod Hall has not been the first and will not be the last on Wall Street to be proven wrong on a stock rating. Goldman Sachs' position was contrarian, and bold for the same reason. Yet, the Apple Maven believes that Rod Hall’s cautious stance could still be a bit too conservative.</p><p><blockquote>罗德·霍尔并不是华尔街第一个也不会是最后一个在股票评级上被证明是错误的人。出于同样的原因，高盛的立场是逆向的，而且大胆。然而，这位苹果专家认为，罗德-霍尔的谨慎立场可能仍然有点过于保守。</blockquote></p><p> While stay-at-home trends may have distorted fiscal 2020 and early 2021 results, the 5G cycle, the M1 architecture, the expansion of the services portfolio and resilient consumer spending in general may still help to boost Apple's revenue-per-user metric – Goldman’s key concern.</p><p><blockquote>虽然居家办公的趋势可能会扭曲 2020 财年和 2021 年初的业绩，但 5G 周期、M1 架构、服务组合的扩张以及总体有弹性的消费者支出仍可能有助于提升苹果的每用户收入指标--高盛的主要关注点。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Goldman Sachs Changed Its Mind On Apple Stock<blockquote>高盛为何改变对苹果股票的看法</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Goldman Sachs Changed Its Mind On Apple Stock<blockquote>高盛为何改变对苹果股票的看法</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-16 10:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>After being on the spotlight for latching on to his pessimism over Apple stock, even&nbsp;following strong quarterly results, famed bear Rod Hall at Goldman Sachs threw in the towel and&nbsp;changed his position on AAPLfrom sell to neutral. Last week, he gave an interview to CNBC and further elaborated on his decision.</p><p><blockquote>即使在强劲的季度业绩之后，高盛著名的熊市罗德·霍尔 (bear Rod Hall) 仍因坚持对苹果股票的悲观情绪而成为人们关注的焦点，但他认输了，并将他对 AAPL 的立场从卖出改为中性。上周，他接受了 CNBC 的采访，并进一步阐述了他的决定。</blockquote></p><p> The Apple Maven takes a closer look at this bear’s journey from highly skeptical to timidly optimistic about Apple shares.</p><p><blockquote>这位苹果专家仔细研究了这位熊市对苹果股票从高度怀疑到胆怯乐观的历程。</blockquote></p><p> <b>iPhone at the center of the bear case</b></p><p><blockquote><b>熊壳中心的iPhone</b></blockquote></p><p> At the core of Goldman Sachs’ sell rating on Apple stock was the Cupertino company's challenges at meeting iPhone sales growth metrics going forward. Rod Hall explained it:</p><p><blockquote>高盛给予苹果股票卖出评级的核心是这家库比蒂诺公司在未来实现 iPhone 销售增长指标方面面临的挑战。罗德·霍尔解释道：</blockquote></p><p>   “Apple continues to show strong execution, but we see fundamentals more likely to disappoint in 2021 as the long-anticipated 5G iPhone fails to meet optimistic consensus expectations and services revenue growth slows.”  To be fair, Apple’s most recent financial results had been far from exhilarating ahead of Goldman’s stock rating upgrade. The Cupertino company's main revenue generator, the iPhone, had produced timid results in 2020, making some wonder if smartphone sales would disappoint&nbsp;at the start of the 5G cycle.</p><p><blockquote>“苹果继续表现出强劲的执行力，但我们认为，由于期待已久的 5G iPhone 未能达到乐观的共识预期，服务收入增长放缓，2021 年的基本面更有可能令人失望。”平心而论，在高盛上调股票评级之前，苹果最近的财务业绩远非令人鼓舞。这家库比蒂诺公司的主要收入来源iPhone在2020年的业绩表现不佳，这让一些人怀疑智能手机销售是否会在5G周期开始时令人失望。</blockquote></p><p> The plateauing in smartphone sales preceded the pandemic year. Based on data from third party-research companies Gartner and Strategy Analytics, 187 million iPhones were sold in 2019, fewer than the 217 million of 2018. And from 2019 to 2020, there was an unprecedented decrease in iPhone revenues: from $142 billion to $138 billion last year.</p><p><blockquote>智能手机销量在疫情年之前就已趋于稳定。根据第三方研究公司Gartner和Strategy Analytics的数据，2019年iPhone的销量为1.87亿部，低于2018年的2.17亿部。而从2019年到2020年，iPhone的收入出现了前所未有的下降：从去年的1420亿美元降至1380亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, and based on recent trends, Rod Hall’s bearishness towards the iPhone seemed reasonably justifiable. What had been missing to tip Apple stock over, in the analyst’s view, was a negative catalyst. He believed that the COVID-19 pandemic could be it.</p><p><blockquote>因此，从最近的趋势来看，罗德-霍尔对 iPhone 的看跌似乎是有道理的。在这位分析师看来，苹果股市上涨所缺少的是一个负面催化剂。他认为新冠肺炎疫情可能就是它。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89631d8083d43e0daee7828d45e7a67a\" tg-width=\"627\" tg-height=\"453\"><span>Figure 1: iPhone quarterly revenue ($bn).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：iPhone季度收入（十亿美元）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>When Goldman Sachs fell off the horse</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当高盛从马背上摔下来</b></blockquote></p><p> Goldman’s rating change on AAPL came in April, after&nbsp;the Cupertino company crushed expectations&nbsp;and released a blowout earnings report. Fiscal second quarter 2021 marked a turning point in iPhone 12 sales, after Apple faced delays&nbsp;in the launch of the new device.</p><p><blockquote>高盛在 4 月份改变了对 AAPL 的评级，此前这家库比蒂诺公司超出了预期，发布了一份井喷的财报。在苹果面临新设备推出延迟后，2021 财年第二财季标志着 iPhone 12 销售的转折点。</blockquote></p><p> Apple reported iPhone revenues of $47.9 billion versus Wall Street’s consensus $41.5 billion. Year-over-year, the top-line increase was a staggering $19 billion, representing growth of 65%.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公布的 iPhone 营收为 479 亿美元，而华尔街普遍预期为 415 亿美元。与去年同期相比，营收增长了惊人的 190 亿美元，增长了 65%。</blockquote></p><p> These numbers probably caught Goldman’s Rod Hall flat-footed.</p><p><blockquote>这些数字可能让高盛的罗德-霍尔措手不及。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How Goldman Sachs sees Apple going forward</b></p><p><blockquote><b>高盛如何看待苹果的未来</b></blockquote></p><p> According to Goldman, the neutral position on AAPL is justified by one key metric: revenues per user. The analyst believes that growth in this metric should be in line with U.S. GDP. He points out that Apple's revenues per user have remained static in recent years, only rising during the pandemic due to stay-at-home trends.</p><p><blockquote>高盛表示，对 AAPL 的中立立场有一个关键指标是合理的：每用户收入。该分析师认为，这一指标的增长应该与美国GDP保持一致。他指出，苹果的每用户收入近年来一直保持不变，只是在疫情期间由于居家趋势而有所上升。</blockquote></p><p> On the bullish side of the argument, Rod Hall sees the importance of privacy, and thinks that Apple could benefit from increased demand for being an advocate of user data protection. On the bearish side, the analyst remains skeptical that the services segment will grow as much as expected, and that only about 20% to 25% of active users will pay for Apple services.</p><p><blockquote>从乐观的角度来看，Rod Hall看到了隐私的重要性，并认为苹果可以从成为用户数据保护倡导者的日益增长的需求中受益。从悲观的角度来看，分析师仍然怀疑服务领域能否像预期那样增长，并且只有大约 20% 至 25% 的活跃用户会为苹果服务付费。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Apple Maven's take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果专家的看法</b></blockquote></p><p> Rod Hall has not been the first and will not be the last on Wall Street to be proven wrong on a stock rating. Goldman Sachs' position was contrarian, and bold for the same reason. Yet, the Apple Maven believes that Rod Hall’s cautious stance could still be a bit too conservative.</p><p><blockquote>罗德·霍尔并不是华尔街第一个也不会是最后一个在股票评级上被证明是错误的人。出于同样的原因，高盛的立场是逆向的，而且大胆。然而，这位苹果专家认为，罗德-霍尔的谨慎立场可能仍然有点过于保守。</blockquote></p><p> While stay-at-home trends may have distorted fiscal 2020 and early 2021 results, the 5G cycle, the M1 architecture, the expansion of the services portfolio and resilient consumer spending in general may still help to boost Apple's revenue-per-user metric – Goldman’s key concern.</p><p><blockquote>虽然居家办公的趋势可能会扭曲 2020 财年和 2021 年初的业绩，但 5G 周期、M1 架构、服务组合的扩张以及总体有弹性的消费者支出仍可能有助于提升苹果的每用户收入指标--高盛的主要关注点。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/news/why-goldman-sachs-changed-its-mind-on-apple-stock\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/news/why-goldman-sachs-changed-its-mind-on-apple-stock","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109582645","content_text":"After being on the spotlight for latching on to his pessimism over Apple stock, even following strong quarterly results, famed bear Rod Hall at Goldman Sachs threw in the towel and changed his position on AAPLfrom sell to neutral. Last week, he gave an interview to CNBC and further elaborated on his decision.\nThe Apple Maven takes a closer look at this bear’s journey from highly skeptical to timidly optimistic about Apple shares.\niPhone at the center of the bear case\nAt the core of Goldman Sachs’ sell rating on Apple stock was the Cupertino company's challenges at meeting iPhone sales growth metrics going forward. Rod Hall explained it:\n\n “Apple continues to show strong execution, but we see fundamentals more likely to disappoint in 2021 as the long-anticipated 5G iPhone fails to meet optimistic consensus expectations and services revenue growth slows.”\n\nTo be fair, Apple’s most recent financial results had been far from exhilarating ahead of Goldman’s stock rating upgrade. The Cupertino company's main revenue generator, the iPhone, had produced timid results in 2020, making some wonder if smartphone sales would disappoint at the start of the 5G cycle.\nThe plateauing in smartphone sales preceded the pandemic year. Based on data from third party-research companies Gartner and Strategy Analytics, 187 million iPhones were sold in 2019, fewer than the 217 million of 2018. And from 2019 to 2020, there was an unprecedented decrease in iPhone revenues: from $142 billion to $138 billion last year.\nTherefore, and based on recent trends, Rod Hall’s bearishness towards the iPhone seemed reasonably justifiable. What had been missing to tip Apple stock over, in the analyst’s view, was a negative catalyst. He believed that the COVID-19 pandemic could be it.\nFigure 1: iPhone quarterly revenue ($bn).\nWhen Goldman Sachs fell off the horse\nGoldman’s rating change on AAPL came in April, after the Cupertino company crushed expectations and released a blowout earnings report. Fiscal second quarter 2021 marked a turning point in iPhone 12 sales, after Apple faced delays in the launch of the new device.\nApple reported iPhone revenues of $47.9 billion versus Wall Street’s consensus $41.5 billion. Year-over-year, the top-line increase was a staggering $19 billion, representing growth of 65%.\nThese numbers probably caught Goldman’s Rod Hall flat-footed.\nHow Goldman Sachs sees Apple going forward\nAccording to Goldman, the neutral position on AAPL is justified by one key metric: revenues per user. The analyst believes that growth in this metric should be in line with U.S. GDP. He points out that Apple's revenues per user have remained static in recent years, only rising during the pandemic due to stay-at-home trends.\nOn the bullish side of the argument, Rod Hall sees the importance of privacy, and thinks that Apple could benefit from increased demand for being an advocate of user data protection. On the bearish side, the analyst remains skeptical that the services segment will grow as much as expected, and that only about 20% to 25% of active users will pay for Apple services.\nThe Apple Maven's take\nRod Hall has not been the first and will not be the last on Wall Street to be proven wrong on a stock rating. Goldman Sachs' position was contrarian, and bold for the same reason. Yet, the Apple Maven believes that Rod Hall’s cautious stance could still be a bit too conservative.\nWhile stay-at-home trends may have distorted fiscal 2020 and early 2021 results, the 5G cycle, the M1 architecture, the expansion of the services portfolio and resilient consumer spending in general may still help to boost Apple's revenue-per-user metric – Goldman’s key concern.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":833,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169049603,"gmtCreate":1623810237302,"gmtModify":1634027762302,"author":{"id":"3579925209341859","authorId":"3579925209341859","name":"FlyHighFly","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a610574cab0fe2ee4e79d08d0eb9ce6c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579925209341859","authorIdStr":"3579925209341859"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Comment and like please","listText":"Comment and like please","text":"Comment and like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169049603","repostId":"2143680537","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1080,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182302664,"gmtCreate":1623552678258,"gmtModify":1634031841578,"author":{"id":"3579925209341859","authorId":"3579925209341859","name":"FlyHighFly","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a610574cab0fe2ee4e79d08d0eb9ce6c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579925209341859","authorIdStr":"3579925209341859"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good good","listText":"Good good","text":"Good good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/182302664","repostId":"1185020128","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185020128","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623537503,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1185020128?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-13 06:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Meme Stock Soars 1,000% To Lead These Two Top Small Cap Stock Plays<blockquote>Meme 股票飙升 1,000%，领跑这两只顶级小盘股</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185020128","media":"investors","summary":"GameStop may be the top holding in SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Value, but that's not the only reason the ","content":"<p>GameStop may be the top holding in SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Value, but that's not the only reason the ETF is beating its growth-stock counterpart.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站可能是 SPDR S&amp;P 600 小盘股价值的最大持股，但这并不是该 ETF 击败成长型股票的唯一原因。</blockquote></p><p> The $4.2 billion value fund tracks the S&amp;P SmallCap 600 Value Index (SLYV), composed of stocks with the strongest value traits based on book value to price ratio, earnings to price ratio, and sales to price ratio. SLYV rallied 32% this year through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>这只价值 42 亿美元的价值基金追踪标准普尔小型股 600 价值指数 (SLYV)，该指数由基于账面市盈率、市盈率和销售率的最强价值特征的股票组成。截至周四收盘，SLYV 今年上涨了 32%。</blockquote></p><p> That more than doubles the return of its growth stock counterpart, SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth (SLYG), which is up 15%. The index SLYG tracks includes stocks with the strongest growth traits based on sales growth, earnings change to price and momentum.</p><p><blockquote>这比其成长型股票 SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth (SLYG) 的回报率增加了一倍多，后者上涨了 15%。SLYG 跟踪的指数包括基于销售增长、盈利对价格和势头的变化而具有最强增长特征的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Back to SLYV, financials accounted for the biggest sector weight at 24% of assets. Industrials weighed in at about 17%, consumer discretionary 15% and real estate 10%. Information technology was next at 8% and materials, energy and health care, 6% each.&nbsp;Smaller positions in consumer staples, utilities and communication services made up the rest.</p><p><blockquote>回到 SLYV，金融业占该行业权重最大，占资产的 24%。工业约占17%，非必需消费品15%，房地产10%。信息技术紧随其后，占8%，材料、能源和医疗保健各占6%。消费品、公用事业和通信服务等较小的头寸占其余头寸。</blockquote></p><p> SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Value is in IBD's ETF Leaders, but SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth is not.</p><p><blockquote>SPDR S&amp;P 600 小盘股价值位居 IBD ETF 领先地位，但 SPDR S&amp;P 600 小盘股增长并非如此。</blockquote></p><p> <b>GameStop Stock Leads</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站股票领先</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>GameStop</b>(GME),<b>Macy's</b>(M),<b>PDC Energy</b>(PDCE),<b>Resideo Technologies</b>(REZI) and<b>BankUnited</b>(BKU) were the top five holdings as of Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站</b>（GME），<b>梅西百货</b>（米），<b>PDC能源</b>（PDCE），<b>Resideo技术公司</b>（雷齐）和<b>联合银行</b>（BKU）是截至周三的前五大持股。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Pacific Premier Bancorp</b>(PPBI),<b>Bed Bath &amp; Beyond</b>(BBBY),<b>Ameris Bancorp</b>(ABCB),<b>First Hawaiian</b>(FHB) and<b>Insight Enterprises</b>(NSIT) rounded out the top 10.</p><p><blockquote><b>太平洋卓越银行</b>（PPBI），<b>床浴及其他</b>（BBBY），<b>美国银行</b>（ABCB），<b>第一个夏威夷人</b>（FHB）和<b>洞察企业</b>（NSIT）跻身前10名。</blockquote></p><p> GameStop has undergone wide swings this year. It rocketed about 2,500% early this year amid theshort-squeeze rallyfueled by the Reddit/WallStreetBets crowd.GME stockthen crashed 92% from a Jan. 28 high to its mid-February low. That was followed by an 805% surge the next three weeks, and a 66% drop over the next two weeks.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站今年经历了很大的波动。今年早些时候，在 Reddit/WallStreetBets crowd.GME 引发的空头挤压反弹中，该股飙升约 2,500%。随后，GME 股票从 1 月 28 日的高点暴跌 92%，跌至 2 月中旬的低点。随后在接下来的三周内飙升了 805%，在接下来的两周内下降了 66%。</blockquote></p><p> Action had been relatively subdued since, until Thursday's 27% dive. Even after that, GameStop stock was up 1,070% year to date through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>此后，股价一直相对低迷，直到周四暴跌 27%。即便如此，截至周四收盘，游戏驿站股价今年迄今已上涨 1,070%。</blockquote></p><p> Could GME be inflating SLYV's performance? Certainly, given its quadruple-digit gain. But a look at SLYG's portfolio is interesting. GameStop stock is also the top holding in the growth stock ETF, though the rest of the top 10 differ vastly.</p><p><blockquote>GME 会夸大 SLYV 的业绩吗？当然，考虑到其四位数的增益。但看看 SLYG 的投资组合很有趣。游戏驿站股票也是成长型股票 ETF 中持有量最大的股票，尽管前 10 名中的其他股票差异很大。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Second Meme Stock In Top 10</b></p><p><blockquote><b>前 10 名中的第二只模因股票</b></blockquote></p><p> PDC Energy, up 130%, saw the next biggest gain in the top 10. The Colorado-based oil and gas explorer has a 97Relative Strength Rating, which mean it's in the top 3% of all stocks. Its relative strength line is at a 52-week high, a bullish sign.</p><p><blockquote>PDC Energy 上涨 130%，在前 10 名中涨幅第二大。这家总部位于科罗拉多州的石油和天然气勘探公司的相对实力评级为 97，这意味着它在所有股票中排名前 3%。其相对强弱线处于 52 周高点，这是一个看涨信号。</blockquote></p><p> Bed Bath &amp; Beyond, another meme stock, is up 78% this year. Shares surged more than 200% in January, amid a spate of wild double-digit swings. BBBY stock then gave back the bulk of its gains.</p><p><blockquote>另一只模因股票 Bed Bath &amp; Beyond 今年上涨了 78%。1 月份，股价飙升超过 200%，出现了一系列两位数的剧烈波动。BBBY 股票随后回吐了大部分涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> But the home goods retailer appears to be back on the radar of the WallStreetBets discussion group. On June 2, Bed Bath &amp; Beyond soared 62% before diving 28% the next session.</p><p><blockquote>但这家家居用品零售商似乎又回到了 WallStreetBets 讨论组的视线中。6 月 2 日，Bed Bath &amp; Beyond 飙升 62%，然后在接下来的交易日暴跌 28%。</blockquote></p><p> The rest of the top 10 stocks have also outperformed the broader market. Macy's is up 68% year to date, while Resideo, Pacific Premier and Ameris have risen more than 40% each. The lowest gainer, bank holding company First Hawaiian, has advanced 20%. The S&amp;P 500 held a 13% gain through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>前 10 名股票的其余表现也优于大盘。梅西百货今年迄今已上涨 68%，而 Resideo、Pacific Premier 和 Ameris 的股价均上涨超过 40%。涨幅最低的银行控股公司 First Hawaiian 上涨了 20%。截至周四收盘，标普500上涨 13%。</blockquote></p><p> SLYV remains in potential buy range from an 87.29entryof acup with handle, according toMarketSmithchart analysis.&nbsp;SLYV and SLYG charge a 0.15% expense ratio.</p><p><blockquote>根据 MarketSmithChart 分析，SLYV 仍处于带手柄的 acup 的潜在买入区间，为 87.29。 SLYV 和 SLYG 收取 0.15% 的费用率。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610449120050","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Meme Stock Soars 1,000% To Lead These Two Top Small Cap Stock Plays<blockquote>Meme 股票飙升 1,000%，领跑这两只顶级小盘股</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMeme Stock Soars 1,000% To Lead These Two Top Small Cap Stock Plays<blockquote>Meme 股票飙升 1,000%，领跑这两只顶级小盘股</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">investors</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-13 06:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>GameStop may be the top holding in SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Value, but that's not the only reason the ETF is beating its growth-stock counterpart.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站可能是 SPDR S&amp;P 600 小盘股价值的最大持股，但这并不是该 ETF 击败成长型股票的唯一原因。</blockquote></p><p> The $4.2 billion value fund tracks the S&amp;P SmallCap 600 Value Index (SLYV), composed of stocks with the strongest value traits based on book value to price ratio, earnings to price ratio, and sales to price ratio. SLYV rallied 32% this year through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>这只价值 42 亿美元的价值基金追踪标准普尔小型股 600 价值指数 (SLYV)，该指数由基于账面市盈率、市盈率和销售率的最强价值特征的股票组成。截至周四收盘，SLYV 今年上涨了 32%。</blockquote></p><p> That more than doubles the return of its growth stock counterpart, SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth (SLYG), which is up 15%. The index SLYG tracks includes stocks with the strongest growth traits based on sales growth, earnings change to price and momentum.</p><p><blockquote>这比其成长型股票 SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth (SLYG) 的回报率增加了一倍多，后者上涨了 15%。SLYG 跟踪的指数包括基于销售增长、盈利对价格和势头的变化而具有最强增长特征的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Back to SLYV, financials accounted for the biggest sector weight at 24% of assets. Industrials weighed in at about 17%, consumer discretionary 15% and real estate 10%. Information technology was next at 8% and materials, energy and health care, 6% each.&nbsp;Smaller positions in consumer staples, utilities and communication services made up the rest.</p><p><blockquote>回到 SLYV，金融业占该行业权重最大，占资产的 24%。工业约占17%，非必需消费品15%，房地产10%。信息技术紧随其后，占8%，材料、能源和医疗保健各占6%。消费品、公用事业和通信服务等较小的头寸占其余头寸。</blockquote></p><p> SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Value is in IBD's ETF Leaders, but SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth is not.</p><p><blockquote>SPDR S&amp;P 600 小盘股价值位居 IBD ETF 领先地位，但 SPDR S&amp;P 600 小盘股增长并非如此。</blockquote></p><p> <b>GameStop Stock Leads</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站股票领先</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>GameStop</b>(GME),<b>Macy's</b>(M),<b>PDC Energy</b>(PDCE),<b>Resideo Technologies</b>(REZI) and<b>BankUnited</b>(BKU) were the top five holdings as of Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站</b>（GME），<b>梅西百货</b>（米），<b>PDC能源</b>（PDCE），<b>Resideo技术公司</b>（雷齐）和<b>联合银行</b>（BKU）是截至周三的前五大持股。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Pacific Premier Bancorp</b>(PPBI),<b>Bed Bath &amp; Beyond</b>(BBBY),<b>Ameris Bancorp</b>(ABCB),<b>First Hawaiian</b>(FHB) and<b>Insight Enterprises</b>(NSIT) rounded out the top 10.</p><p><blockquote><b>太平洋卓越银行</b>（PPBI），<b>床浴及其他</b>（BBBY），<b>美国银行</b>（ABCB），<b>第一个夏威夷人</b>（FHB）和<b>洞察企业</b>（NSIT）跻身前10名。</blockquote></p><p> GameStop has undergone wide swings this year. It rocketed about 2,500% early this year amid theshort-squeeze rallyfueled by the Reddit/WallStreetBets crowd.GME stockthen crashed 92% from a Jan. 28 high to its mid-February low. That was followed by an 805% surge the next three weeks, and a 66% drop over the next two weeks.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站今年经历了很大的波动。今年早些时候，在 Reddit/WallStreetBets crowd.GME 引发的空头挤压反弹中，该股飙升约 2,500%。随后，GME 股票从 1 月 28 日的高点暴跌 92%，跌至 2 月中旬的低点。随后在接下来的三周内飙升了 805%，在接下来的两周内下降了 66%。</blockquote></p><p> Action had been relatively subdued since, until Thursday's 27% dive. Even after that, GameStop stock was up 1,070% year to date through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>此后，股价一直相对低迷，直到周四暴跌 27%。即便如此，截至周四收盘，游戏驿站股价今年迄今已上涨 1,070%。</blockquote></p><p> Could GME be inflating SLYV's performance? Certainly, given its quadruple-digit gain. But a look at SLYG's portfolio is interesting. GameStop stock is also the top holding in the growth stock ETF, though the rest of the top 10 differ vastly.</p><p><blockquote>GME 会夸大 SLYV 的业绩吗？当然，考虑到其四位数的增益。但看看 SLYG 的投资组合很有趣。游戏驿站股票也是成长型股票 ETF 中持有量最大的股票，尽管前 10 名中的其他股票差异很大。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Second Meme Stock In Top 10</b></p><p><blockquote><b>前 10 名中的第二只模因股票</b></blockquote></p><p> PDC Energy, up 130%, saw the next biggest gain in the top 10. The Colorado-based oil and gas explorer has a 97Relative Strength Rating, which mean it's in the top 3% of all stocks. Its relative strength line is at a 52-week high, a bullish sign.</p><p><blockquote>PDC Energy 上涨 130%，在前 10 名中涨幅第二大。这家总部位于科罗拉多州的石油和天然气勘探公司的相对实力评级为 97，这意味着它在所有股票中排名前 3%。其相对强弱线处于 52 周高点，这是一个看涨信号。</blockquote></p><p> Bed Bath &amp; Beyond, another meme stock, is up 78% this year. Shares surged more than 200% in January, amid a spate of wild double-digit swings. BBBY stock then gave back the bulk of its gains.</p><p><blockquote>另一只模因股票 Bed Bath &amp; Beyond 今年上涨了 78%。1 月份，股价飙升超过 200%，出现了一系列两位数的剧烈波动。BBBY 股票随后回吐了大部分涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> But the home goods retailer appears to be back on the radar of the WallStreetBets discussion group. On June 2, Bed Bath &amp; Beyond soared 62% before diving 28% the next session.</p><p><blockquote>但这家家居用品零售商似乎又回到了 WallStreetBets 讨论组的视线中。6 月 2 日，Bed Bath &amp; Beyond 飙升 62%，然后在接下来的交易日暴跌 28%。</blockquote></p><p> The rest of the top 10 stocks have also outperformed the broader market. Macy's is up 68% year to date, while Resideo, Pacific Premier and Ameris have risen more than 40% each. The lowest gainer, bank holding company First Hawaiian, has advanced 20%. The S&amp;P 500 held a 13% gain through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>前 10 名股票的其余表现也优于大盘。梅西百货今年迄今已上涨 68%，而 Resideo、Pacific Premier 和 Ameris 的股价均上涨超过 40%。涨幅最低的银行控股公司 First Hawaiian 上涨了 20%。截至周四收盘，标普500上涨 13%。</blockquote></p><p> SLYV remains in potential buy range from an 87.29entryof acup with handle, according toMarketSmithchart analysis.&nbsp;SLYV and SLYG charge a 0.15% expense ratio.</p><p><blockquote>根据 MarketSmithChart 分析，SLYV 仍处于带手柄的 acup 的潜在买入区间，为 87.29。 SLYV 和 SLYG 收取 0.15% 的费用率。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/etf-leaders/gamestop-stock-soars-1000-percent-lead-two-top-small-cap-stock-plays/?src=A00220\">investors</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PDCE":"PDC Energy","BBBY":"Bed Bath & Beyond, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/etf-leaders/gamestop-stock-soars-1000-percent-lead-two-top-small-cap-stock-plays/?src=A00220","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185020128","content_text":"GameStop may be the top holding in SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Value, but that's not the only reason the ETF is beating its growth-stock counterpart.\nThe $4.2 billion value fund tracks the S&P SmallCap 600 Value Index (SLYV), composed of stocks with the strongest value traits based on book value to price ratio, earnings to price ratio, and sales to price ratio. SLYV rallied 32% this year through Thursday's close.\nThat more than doubles the return of its growth stock counterpart, SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Growth (SLYG), which is up 15%. The index SLYG tracks includes stocks with the strongest growth traits based on sales growth, earnings change to price and momentum.\nBack to SLYV, financials accounted for the biggest sector weight at 24% of assets. Industrials weighed in at about 17%, consumer discretionary 15% and real estate 10%. Information technology was next at 8% and materials, energy and health care, 6% each. Smaller positions in consumer staples, utilities and communication services made up the rest.\nSPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Value is in IBD's ETF Leaders, but SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Growth is not.\nGameStop Stock Leads\nGameStop(GME),Macy's(M),PDC Energy(PDCE),Resideo Technologies(REZI) andBankUnited(BKU) were the top five holdings as of Wednesday.\nPacific Premier Bancorp(PPBI),Bed Bath & Beyond(BBBY),Ameris Bancorp(ABCB),First Hawaiian(FHB) andInsight Enterprises(NSIT) rounded out the top 10.\nGameStop has undergone wide swings this year. It rocketed about 2,500% early this year amid theshort-squeeze rallyfueled by the Reddit/WallStreetBets crowd.GME stockthen crashed 92% from a Jan. 28 high to its mid-February low. That was followed by an 805% surge the next three weeks, and a 66% drop over the next two weeks.\nAction had been relatively subdued since, until Thursday's 27% dive. Even after that, GameStop stock was up 1,070% year to date through Thursday's close.\nCould GME be inflating SLYV's performance? Certainly, given its quadruple-digit gain. But a look at SLYG's portfolio is interesting. GameStop stock is also the top holding in the growth stock ETF, though the rest of the top 10 differ vastly.\nSecond Meme Stock In Top 10\nPDC Energy, up 130%, saw the next biggest gain in the top 10. The Colorado-based oil and gas explorer has a 97Relative Strength Rating, which mean it's in the top 3% of all stocks. Its relative strength line is at a 52-week high, a bullish sign.\nBed Bath & Beyond, another meme stock, is up 78% this year. Shares surged more than 200% in January, amid a spate of wild double-digit swings. BBBY stock then gave back the bulk of its gains.\nBut the home goods retailer appears to be back on the radar of the WallStreetBets discussion group. On June 2, Bed Bath & Beyond soared 62% before diving 28% the next session.\nThe rest of the top 10 stocks have also outperformed the broader market. Macy's is up 68% year to date, while Resideo, Pacific Premier and Ameris have risen more than 40% each. The lowest gainer, bank holding company First Hawaiian, has advanced 20%. The S&P 500 held a 13% gain through Thursday's close.\nSLYV remains in potential buy range from an 87.29entryof acup with handle, according toMarketSmithchart analysis. SLYV and SLYG charge a 0.15% expense ratio.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PDCE":0.9,"BBBY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1079,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182306429,"gmtCreate":1623552659661,"gmtModify":1634031842193,"author":{"id":"3579925209341859","authorId":"3579925209341859","name":"FlyHighFly","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a610574cab0fe2ee4e79d08d0eb9ce6c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579925209341859","authorIdStr":"3579925209341859"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Comment and like please","listText":"Comment and like please","text":"Comment and like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/182306429","repostId":"2142204074","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1016,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181841132,"gmtCreate":1623386755626,"gmtModify":1634033888776,"author":{"id":"3579925209341859","authorId":"3579925209341859","name":"FlyHighFly","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a610574cab0fe2ee4e79d08d0eb9ce6c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579925209341859","authorIdStr":"3579925209341859"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like and comment please","listText":"Like and comment please","text":"Like and comment please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181841132","repostId":"2142221222","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1123,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":183256918,"gmtCreate":1623333689434,"gmtModify":1634034468541,"author":{"id":"3579925209341859","authorId":"3579925209341859","name":"FlyHighFly","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a610574cab0fe2ee4e79d08d0eb9ce6c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579925209341859","authorIdStr":"3579925209341859"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like please&nbsp;","listText":"Like please&nbsp;","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/183256918","repostId":"1128810191","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":896,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":101755933,"gmtCreate":1619949012822,"gmtModify":1634208915493,"author":{"id":"3579925209341859","authorId":"3579925209341859","name":"FlyHighFly","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a610574cab0fe2ee4e79d08d0eb9ce6c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579925209341859","authorIdStr":"3579925209341859"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Comment please. Tks","listText":"Comment please. Tks","text":"Comment please. Tks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":10,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/101755933","repostId":"1103106179","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":891,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":343767174,"gmtCreate":1617756452698,"gmtModify":1634296719518,"author":{"id":"3579925209341859","authorId":"3579925209341859","name":"FlyHighFly","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a610574cab0fe2ee4e79d08d0eb9ce6c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579925209341859","authorIdStr":"3579925209341859"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Pls like and comment. Tks","listText":"Pls like and comment. Tks","text":"Pls like and comment. Tks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/343767174","repostId":"1101907559","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101907559","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617672655,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1101907559?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-06 09:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time<blockquote>观点：金融危机大约每 10 年就会引发一次——Archegos 可能是对的</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101907559","media":"marketwatch","summary":"No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.Financial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management. Its reach and operating practices were","content":"<p>  <b>No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.</b>  Financial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.</p><p><blockquote><b>目前，没有人能确定所谓家族办公室数十亿美元的投资损失不会蔓延。</b>金融危机永远不会完全相同。20 世纪 80 年代末，全国近三分之一的储蓄和贷款协会倒闭，最终纳税人获得了约 2650 亿美元的救助（按 2021 年计算）。</blockquote></p><p> In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management(LTCM). Its reach and operating practices were such that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that when LTCM failed, “he had never seen anything in his lifetime that compared to the terror” he felt. LTCM was deemed “too big to fail,” and he engineered a bailout by 14 major U.S. financial institutions.</p><p><blockquote>1997-1998年，亚洲和俄罗斯的金融危机导致美国最大的对冲基金——长期资本管理公司（LTCM）几近崩溃。它的影响力和运作方式如此之大，以至于美联储主席艾伦-格林斯潘（Alan Greenspan）说，当 LTCM 失败时，“他一生中从未见过任何能与他感受到的恐怖相提并论的东西”。LTCM 被认为 “大到不能倒”，他策划了 14 家美国主要金融机构的救助计划。</blockquote></p><p> Exactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue.</p><p><blockquote>整整十年后，其中一些机构过度使用杠杆，以及美国房地产泡沫的破裂，导致美国金融体系几近崩溃。大银行又一次被认为太大而不能倒，纳税人出手相救。</blockquote></p><p> The trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different.&nbsp;Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP?</p><p><blockquote>趋势？每隔10年左右，它们看起来都不一样。随着家族办公室Archegos Capital Management LP的爆炸，我们现在是否正处于新危机的早期阶段？</blockquote></p><p> A family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here’s what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it’s based on 2019 data.</p><p><blockquote>对于门外汉来说，家族办公室是超级富豪的私人财富管理工具。这就是我所说的超级富豪的意思： 咨询公司安永估计，全球约有 10,000 家家族理财室，但市场研究公司坎普登研究公司（Campden Research）的另一项估计显示，管理规模接近 6 万亿美元。鉴于 2019 年的数据，这 6 万亿美元现在可能要高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Unregulated money managers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不受监管的资金管理人</b></blockquote></p><p> Here’s the potential danger. Family offices generally aren’t regulated. The 1940 Investment Advisers Act says firms with 15 clients or fewer don’t have to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. What this means is that trillions of dollars are in play and no one can really say who’s running the money, what it’s invested in, how much leverage is being used, and what kind of counterparty risk may exist. (Counterparty risk is the probability that one party involved in a financial transaction could default on a contractual obligation to someone else.)</p><p><blockquote>这就是潜在的危险。家族理财室一般不受监管。1940 年的《投资顾问法》规定，拥有 15 家或以下客户的公司无需向美国证券交易委员会注册。这意味着数万亿美元在起作用，没有人能真正说出谁在管理这笔钱，投资了什么，使用了多少杠杆，以及可能存在什么样的交易对手风险。（交易对手风险是指参与金融交易的一方可能违反对另一方的合同义务的概率。）</blockquote></p><p> This appears to be the case with Archegos. The firm bet heavily on certain Chinese stocks, including e-commerce player&nbsp;Vipshop Holdings&nbsp;Ltd.VIPS,-1.19%,U.S.-listed Chinese tutoring company&nbsp;GSX Techedu&nbsp;Inc.GSX,-10.63%and U.S. media companiesViacomCBS&nbsp;Inc.VIAC,-3.90%and&nbsp;Discovery&nbsp;Inc.DISCA,-3.86%,among others. Share prices have tumbled lately, sparking large sales — some $30 billion — by Archegos.</p><p><blockquote>Archegos似乎就是这种情况。该公司大力押注某些中国股票，包括电子商务公司唯品会控股有限公司（Vipshop Holdings Ltd.VIPS），-1.19%，美国上市中国辅导公司跟谁学公司（GSX），-10.63%，以及美国媒体公司ViacomCBS Inc.VIAC，-3.90%和Discovery Inc.DISCA，-3.86%等。股价最近暴跌，引发了 Archegos 的大规模出售——约 300 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The problem is that only about a third of that, or $10 billion, was its own money. We now know that Archegos worked with some of the biggest names on Wall Street, including&nbsp;Credit Suisse Group AGCS,+1.59%,UBS Group AGUBS,+1.01%,Goldman Sachs Group Inc.GS,-1.25%,&nbsp;Morgan StanleyMS,-0.28%,Deutsche Bank AGDB,+0.74%and Nomura Holdings Inc.&nbsp;NMR,+1.87%.</p><p><blockquote>问题是，其中只有大约三分之一，即100亿美元，是它自己的钱。我们现在知道 Archegos 与华尔街的一些大公司合作，包括瑞士信贷集团 AGCS（+1.59%）、瑞银集团 AGUBS（+1.01%）、高盛集团 GS（-1.25%）、摩根士丹利 MS（-0.28%）、德意志银行 AGDB，+0.74% 和野村控股公司 NMR，+1.87%。</blockquote></p><p> But since family offices are largely allowed to operate unregulated, who’s to say how much money is really involved here and what the extent of market risk is? My colleague Mark DeCambre&nbsp;reported last week that Archegos’ true exposures to bad trades could actuallybe closer to $100 billion.</p><p><blockquote>但是，由于家族理财室在很大程度上被允许不受监管地运营，谁能说出这里到底涉及多少钱，市场风险有多大？我的同事马克-德坎布雷（Mark DeCambre）上周报道称，Archegos 的真实不良交易风险实际上可能接近 1000 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Danger of counterparty risk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易对手风险</b></blockquote></p><p> This is where counterparty risk comes in. As Archegos’ bets went south, the above banks — looking at losses of their own — hit the firm with margin calls. Deutsche quickly dumped about $4 billion in holdings, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley are also said to have unwound their positions, perhaps limiting their downside.</p><p><blockquote>这就是交易对手风险的来源。随着 Archegos 的赌注走向南方，上述银行--考虑到自己的损失--用保证金评级打击了该公司。德意志银行很快抛售了约 40 亿美元的持股，而据说高盛和摩根士丹利也已解除头寸，这或许限制了它们的下行空间。</blockquote></p><p> So is this a financial crisis? It doesn’t appear to be. Even so, the Securities and Exchange Commission has opened a preliminary investigation into Archegos and its founder, Bill Hwang.</p><p><blockquote>那么这是金融危机吗？似乎并非如此。即便如此，美国证券交易委员会已对 Archegos 及其创始人 Bill Hwang 展开初步调查。</blockquote></p><p> One peer, Tom Lee, the research chief of Fundstrat Global Advisors, calls Hwang one of the “top 10 of the best investment minds” he knows.</p><p><blockquote>一位同行，Fundstrat Global Advisors 的研究主管 Tom Lee，将评级-黄（John Hwang）列为他所知道的 “十大最佳投资头脑 ”之一。</blockquote></p><p> But federal regulators may have a lesser opinion. In 2012, Hwang’s former hedge fund, Tiger Asia Management, pleaded guilty and paid more than $60 million in penalties after it was accused of trading on illegal tips about Chinese banks. The SEC banned Hwang from managing money on behalf of clients — essentially booting him from the hedge fund industry. So Hwang opened Archegos, and again, family offices aren’t generally aren’t regulated.</p><p><blockquote>但联邦监管机构的意见可能较少。2012 年，黄的前对冲基金老虎亚洲管理公司（Tiger Asia Management）被指控利用有关中国银行的非法线索进行交易，认罪并支付了 6000 多万美元的罚款。美国证券交易委员会禁止黄代表客户管理资金——实质上将他逐出了对冲基金行业。于是 Hwang 开了 Archegos，再说一遍，家族办公室一般都不受监管。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Yellen on the case</b></p><p><blockquote><b>耶伦谈此案</b></blockquote></p><p> This issue is on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s radar. She said last week that greater oversight of these private corners of the financial industry is needed. The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which she oversees, has revived a task force to help agencies better “share data, identify risks and work to strengthen our financial system.”</p><p><blockquote>这个问题引起了财政部长珍妮特-耶伦（Janet Yellen）的关注。她上周表示，需要对金融业的这些私人角落进行更严格的监管。她监管的金融稳定监督委员会（FSOC）重新启动了一个特别工作组，以帮助各机构更好地 “共享数据、识别风险并努力加强我们的金融体系”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Most financial crises end up with American taxpayers getting stuck with the tab. Gains belong to the risk-takers. But losses — they belong to us. To paraphrase Abe Lincoln, family offices — a multi-trillion dollar industry largely allowed to operate in the shadows in a global financial system that is more intertwined than ever — are of the super-wealthy, by the super-wealthy and for the super-wealthy. And no one else.</p><p><blockquote>大多数金融危机最终都是美国纳税人陷入困境。收益属于冒险者。但是损失——它们属于我们。套用亚伯·林肯的话来说，家族理财室——一个价值数万亿美元的行业，在很大程度上被允许在比以往任何时候都更加错综复杂的全球金融体系的阴影中运作——属于超级富豪，由超级富豪拥有，为超级富豪服务。没有其他人。</blockquote></p><p> The Archegos collapse may or may not be the beginning of yet another financial crisis. But who’s to say what thousands of other family offices are doing with their trillions, and whether similar problems could blow up?</p><p><blockquote>Archegos的崩溃可能是也可能不是另一场金融危机的开始。但是，谁能说成千上万的其他家族理财室如何处理他们的数万亿美元，以及类似的问题是否会爆发？</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time<blockquote>观点：金融危机大约每 10 年就会引发一次——Archegos 可能是对的</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time<blockquote>观点：金融危机大约每 10 年就会引发一次——Archegos 可能是对的</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">marketwatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-06 09:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.</b>  Financial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.</p><p><blockquote><b>目前，没有人能确定所谓家族办公室数十亿美元的投资损失不会蔓延。</b>金融危机永远不会完全相同。20 世纪 80 年代末，全国近三分之一的储蓄和贷款协会倒闭，最终纳税人获得了约 2650 亿美元的救助（按 2021 年计算）。</blockquote></p><p> In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management(LTCM). Its reach and operating practices were such that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that when LTCM failed, “he had never seen anything in his lifetime that compared to the terror” he felt. LTCM was deemed “too big to fail,” and he engineered a bailout by 14 major U.S. financial institutions.</p><p><blockquote>1997-1998年，亚洲和俄罗斯的金融危机导致美国最大的对冲基金——长期资本管理公司（LTCM）几近崩溃。它的影响力和运作方式如此之大，以至于美联储主席艾伦-格林斯潘（Alan Greenspan）说，当 LTCM 失败时，“他一生中从未见过任何能与他感受到的恐怖相提并论的东西”。LTCM 被认为 “大到不能倒”，他策划了 14 家美国主要金融机构的救助计划。</blockquote></p><p> Exactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue.</p><p><blockquote>整整十年后，其中一些机构过度使用杠杆，以及美国房地产泡沫的破裂，导致美国金融体系几近崩溃。大银行又一次被认为太大而不能倒，纳税人出手相救。</blockquote></p><p> The trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different.&nbsp;Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP?</p><p><blockquote>趋势？每隔10年左右，它们看起来都不一样。随着家族办公室Archegos Capital Management LP的爆炸，我们现在是否正处于新危机的早期阶段？</blockquote></p><p> A family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here’s what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it’s based on 2019 data.</p><p><blockquote>对于门外汉来说，家族办公室是超级富豪的私人财富管理工具。这就是我所说的超级富豪的意思： 咨询公司安永估计，全球约有 10,000 家家族理财室，但市场研究公司坎普登研究公司（Campden Research）的另一项估计显示，管理规模接近 6 万亿美元。鉴于 2019 年的数据，这 6 万亿美元现在可能要高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Unregulated money managers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不受监管的资金管理人</b></blockquote></p><p> Here’s the potential danger. Family offices generally aren’t regulated. The 1940 Investment Advisers Act says firms with 15 clients or fewer don’t have to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. What this means is that trillions of dollars are in play and no one can really say who’s running the money, what it’s invested in, how much leverage is being used, and what kind of counterparty risk may exist. (Counterparty risk is the probability that one party involved in a financial transaction could default on a contractual obligation to someone else.)</p><p><blockquote>这就是潜在的危险。家族理财室一般不受监管。1940 年的《投资顾问法》规定，拥有 15 家或以下客户的公司无需向美国证券交易委员会注册。这意味着数万亿美元在起作用，没有人能真正说出谁在管理这笔钱，投资了什么，使用了多少杠杆，以及可能存在什么样的交易对手风险。（交易对手风险是指参与金融交易的一方可能违反对另一方的合同义务的概率。）</blockquote></p><p> This appears to be the case with Archegos. The firm bet heavily on certain Chinese stocks, including e-commerce player&nbsp;Vipshop Holdings&nbsp;Ltd.VIPS,-1.19%,U.S.-listed Chinese tutoring company&nbsp;GSX Techedu&nbsp;Inc.GSX,-10.63%and U.S. media companiesViacomCBS&nbsp;Inc.VIAC,-3.90%and&nbsp;Discovery&nbsp;Inc.DISCA,-3.86%,among others. Share prices have tumbled lately, sparking large sales — some $30 billion — by Archegos.</p><p><blockquote>Archegos似乎就是这种情况。该公司大力押注某些中国股票，包括电子商务公司唯品会控股有限公司（Vipshop Holdings Ltd.VIPS），-1.19%，美国上市中国辅导公司跟谁学公司（GSX），-10.63%，以及美国媒体公司ViacomCBS Inc.VIAC，-3.90%和Discovery Inc.DISCA，-3.86%等。股价最近暴跌，引发了 Archegos 的大规模出售——约 300 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The problem is that only about a third of that, or $10 billion, was its own money. We now know that Archegos worked with some of the biggest names on Wall Street, including&nbsp;Credit Suisse Group AGCS,+1.59%,UBS Group AGUBS,+1.01%,Goldman Sachs Group Inc.GS,-1.25%,&nbsp;Morgan StanleyMS,-0.28%,Deutsche Bank AGDB,+0.74%and Nomura Holdings Inc.&nbsp;NMR,+1.87%.</p><p><blockquote>问题是，其中只有大约三分之一，即100亿美元，是它自己的钱。我们现在知道 Archegos 与华尔街的一些大公司合作，包括瑞士信贷集团 AGCS（+1.59%）、瑞银集团 AGUBS（+1.01%）、高盛集团 GS（-1.25%）、摩根士丹利 MS（-0.28%）、德意志银行 AGDB，+0.74% 和野村控股公司 NMR，+1.87%。</blockquote></p><p> But since family offices are largely allowed to operate unregulated, who’s to say how much money is really involved here and what the extent of market risk is? My colleague Mark DeCambre&nbsp;reported last week that Archegos’ true exposures to bad trades could actuallybe closer to $100 billion.</p><p><blockquote>但是，由于家族理财室在很大程度上被允许不受监管地运营，谁能说出这里到底涉及多少钱，市场风险有多大？我的同事马克-德坎布雷（Mark DeCambre）上周报道称，Archegos 的真实不良交易风险实际上可能接近 1000 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Danger of counterparty risk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易对手风险</b></blockquote></p><p> This is where counterparty risk comes in. As Archegos’ bets went south, the above banks — looking at losses of their own — hit the firm with margin calls. Deutsche quickly dumped about $4 billion in holdings, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley are also said to have unwound their positions, perhaps limiting their downside.</p><p><blockquote>这就是交易对手风险的来源。随着 Archegos 的赌注走向南方，上述银行--考虑到自己的损失--用保证金评级打击了该公司。德意志银行很快抛售了约 40 亿美元的持股，而据说高盛和摩根士丹利也已解除头寸，这或许限制了它们的下行空间。</blockquote></p><p> So is this a financial crisis? It doesn’t appear to be. Even so, the Securities and Exchange Commission has opened a preliminary investigation into Archegos and its founder, Bill Hwang.</p><p><blockquote>那么这是金融危机吗？似乎并非如此。即便如此，美国证券交易委员会已对 Archegos 及其创始人 Bill Hwang 展开初步调查。</blockquote></p><p> One peer, Tom Lee, the research chief of Fundstrat Global Advisors, calls Hwang one of the “top 10 of the best investment minds” he knows.</p><p><blockquote>一位同行，Fundstrat Global Advisors 的研究主管 Tom Lee，将评级-黄（John Hwang）列为他所知道的 “十大最佳投资头脑 ”之一。</blockquote></p><p> But federal regulators may have a lesser opinion. In 2012, Hwang’s former hedge fund, Tiger Asia Management, pleaded guilty and paid more than $60 million in penalties after it was accused of trading on illegal tips about Chinese banks. The SEC banned Hwang from managing money on behalf of clients — essentially booting him from the hedge fund industry. So Hwang opened Archegos, and again, family offices aren’t generally aren’t regulated.</p><p><blockquote>但联邦监管机构的意见可能较少。2012 年，黄的前对冲基金老虎亚洲管理公司（Tiger Asia Management）被指控利用有关中国银行的非法线索进行交易，认罪并支付了 6000 多万美元的罚款。美国证券交易委员会禁止黄代表客户管理资金——实质上将他逐出了对冲基金行业。于是 Hwang 开了 Archegos，再说一遍，家族办公室一般都不受监管。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Yellen on the case</b></p><p><blockquote><b>耶伦谈此案</b></blockquote></p><p> This issue is on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s radar. She said last week that greater oversight of these private corners of the financial industry is needed. The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which she oversees, has revived a task force to help agencies better “share data, identify risks and work to strengthen our financial system.”</p><p><blockquote>这个问题引起了财政部长珍妮特-耶伦（Janet Yellen）的关注。她上周表示，需要对金融业的这些私人角落进行更严格的监管。她监管的金融稳定监督委员会（FSOC）重新启动了一个特别工作组，以帮助各机构更好地 “共享数据、识别风险并努力加强我们的金融体系”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Most financial crises end up with American taxpayers getting stuck with the tab. Gains belong to the risk-takers. But losses — they belong to us. To paraphrase Abe Lincoln, family offices — a multi-trillion dollar industry largely allowed to operate in the shadows in a global financial system that is more intertwined than ever — are of the super-wealthy, by the super-wealthy and for the super-wealthy. And no one else.</p><p><blockquote>大多数金融危机最终都是美国纳税人陷入困境。收益属于冒险者。但是损失——它们属于我们。套用亚伯·林肯的话来说，家族理财室——一个价值数万亿美元的行业，在很大程度上被允许在比以往任何时候都更加错综复杂的全球金融体系的阴影中运作——属于超级富豪，由超级富豪拥有，为超级富豪服务。没有其他人。</blockquote></p><p> The Archegos collapse may or may not be the beginning of yet another financial crisis. But who’s to say what thousands of other family offices are doing with their trillions, and whether similar problems could blow up?</p><p><blockquote>Archegos的崩溃可能是也可能不是另一场金融危机的开始。但是，谁能说成千上万的其他家族理财室如何处理他们的数万亿美元，以及类似的问题是否会爆发？</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/financial-crises-happen-about-every-10-years-which-makes-the-archegos-meltdown-unnerving-11617634942?mod=home-page\">marketwatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/financial-crises-happen-about-every-10-years-which-makes-the-archegos-meltdown-unnerving-11617634942?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101907559","content_text":"No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.\n\nFinancial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.\nIn 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management(LTCM). Its reach and operating practices were such that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that when LTCM failed, “he had never seen anything in his lifetime that compared to the terror” he felt. LTCM was deemed “too big to fail,” and he engineered a bailout by 14 major U.S. financial institutions.\nExactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue.\nThe trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different. Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP?\nA family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here’s what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it’s based on 2019 data.\nUnregulated money managers\nHere’s the potential danger. Family offices generally aren’t regulated. The 1940 Investment Advisers Act says firms with 15 clients or fewer don’t have to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. What this means is that trillions of dollars are in play and no one can really say who’s running the money, what it’s invested in, how much leverage is being used, and what kind of counterparty risk may exist. (Counterparty risk is the probability that one party involved in a financial transaction could default on a contractual obligation to someone else.)\nThis appears to be the case with Archegos. The firm bet heavily on certain Chinese stocks, including e-commerce player Vipshop Holdings Ltd.VIPS,-1.19%,U.S.-listed Chinese tutoring company GSX Techedu Inc.GSX,-10.63%and U.S. media companiesViacomCBS Inc.VIAC,-3.90%and Discovery Inc.DISCA,-3.86%,among others. Share prices have tumbled lately, sparking large sales — some $30 billion — by Archegos.\nThe problem is that only about a third of that, or $10 billion, was its own money. We now know that Archegos worked with some of the biggest names on Wall Street, including Credit Suisse Group AGCS,+1.59%,UBS Group AGUBS,+1.01%,Goldman Sachs Group Inc.GS,-1.25%, Morgan StanleyMS,-0.28%,Deutsche Bank AGDB,+0.74%and Nomura Holdings Inc. NMR,+1.87%.\nBut since family offices are largely allowed to operate unregulated, who’s to say how much money is really involved here and what the extent of market risk is? My colleague Mark DeCambre reported last week that Archegos’ true exposures to bad trades could actuallybe closer to $100 billion.\nDanger of counterparty risk\nThis is where counterparty risk comes in. As Archegos’ bets went south, the above banks — looking at losses of their own — hit the firm with margin calls. Deutsche quickly dumped about $4 billion in holdings, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley are also said to have unwound their positions, perhaps limiting their downside.\nSo is this a financial crisis? It doesn’t appear to be. Even so, the Securities and Exchange Commission has opened a preliminary investigation into Archegos and its founder, Bill Hwang.\nOne peer, Tom Lee, the research chief of Fundstrat Global Advisors, calls Hwang one of the “top 10 of the best investment minds” he knows.\nBut federal regulators may have a lesser opinion. In 2012, Hwang’s former hedge fund, Tiger Asia Management, pleaded guilty and paid more than $60 million in penalties after it was accused of trading on illegal tips about Chinese banks. The SEC banned Hwang from managing money on behalf of clients — essentially booting him from the hedge fund industry. So Hwang opened Archegos, and again, family offices aren’t generally aren’t regulated.\nYellen on the case\nThis issue is on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s radar. She said last week that greater oversight of these private corners of the financial industry is needed. The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which she oversees, has revived a task force to help agencies better “share data, identify risks and work to strengthen our financial system.”\nMost financial crises end up with American taxpayers getting stuck with the tab. Gains belong to the risk-takers. But losses — they belong to us. To paraphrase Abe Lincoln, family offices — a multi-trillion dollar industry largely allowed to operate in the shadows in a global financial system that is more intertwined than ever — are of the super-wealthy, by the super-wealthy and for the super-wealthy. And no one else.\nThe Archegos collapse may or may not be the beginning of yet another financial crisis. But who’s to say what thousands of other family offices are doing with their trillions, and whether similar problems could blow up?","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":619,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":193507956,"gmtCreate":1620796186775,"gmtModify":1634196218815,"author":{"id":"3579925209341859","authorId":"3579925209341859","name":"FlyHighFly","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a610574cab0fe2ee4e79d08d0eb9ce6c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579925209341859","authorIdStr":"3579925209341859"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please help to comment","listText":"Please help to comment","text":"Please help to comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/193507956","repostId":"2134698127","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":724,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":193502402,"gmtCreate":1620795985606,"gmtModify":1634196220211,"author":{"id":"3579925209341859","authorId":"3579925209341859","name":"FlyHighFly","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a610574cab0fe2ee4e79d08d0eb9ce6c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579925209341859","authorIdStr":"3579925209341859"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like and comment please","listText":"Like and comment please","text":"Like and comment please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/193502402","repostId":"2134350698","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":590,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":344757251,"gmtCreate":1618445810873,"gmtModify":1634292922079,"author":{"id":"3579925209341859","authorId":"3579925209341859","name":"FlyHighFly","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a610574cab0fe2ee4e79d08d0eb9ce6c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579925209341859","authorIdStr":"3579925209341859"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please help to like and comment. Thanks","listText":"Please help to like and comment. Thanks","text":"Please help to like and comment. Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/344757251","repostId":"1195980650","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":449,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":196024004,"gmtCreate":1621000730008,"gmtModify":1634194653238,"author":{"id":"3579925209341859","authorId":"3579925209341859","name":"FlyHighFly","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a610574cab0fe2ee4e79d08d0eb9ce6c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579925209341859","authorIdStr":"3579925209341859"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please like and comment. Thank you","listText":"Please like and comment. Thank you","text":"Please like and comment. Thank you","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/196024004","repostId":"2135710626","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":503,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":111465151,"gmtCreate":1622693455673,"gmtModify":1634099065744,"author":{"id":"3579925209341859","authorId":"3579925209341859","name":"FlyHighFly","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a610574cab0fe2ee4e79d08d0eb9ce6c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579925209341859","authorIdStr":"3579925209341859"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please comment and like","listText":"Please comment and like","text":"Please comment and like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/111465151","repostId":"1115876867","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":688,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":106835548,"gmtCreate":1620100232784,"gmtModify":1634207809497,"author":{"id":"3579925209341859","authorId":"3579925209341859","name":"FlyHighFly","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a610574cab0fe2ee4e79d08d0eb9ce6c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579925209341859","authorIdStr":"3579925209341859"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please comment. Tks","listText":"Please comment. Tks","text":"Please comment. Tks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/106835548","repostId":"1103003554","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1103003554","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620096039,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1103003554?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-04 10:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Stocks I'm Never Selling<blockquote>我从不出售的 3 只股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103003554","media":"The motley fool","summary":"I've fully bought into the Warren Buffett axiom of \"the best time to sell a stock is never,\" but as ","content":"<p>I've fully bought into the Warren Buffett axiom of \"the best time to sell a stock is never,\" but as we also all know, never say never. After all, even the Oracle of Omaha routinely sells stocks he owns.</p><p><blockquote>我完全相信沃伦·巴菲特的格言“出售股票的最佳时机永远不是”，但众所周知，永远不要说永远。毕竟，即使是奥马哈先知也经常出售他持有的股票。</blockquote></p><p>While breaking the day-trading mindset is obviously the goal of such pithy sayings, holding onto shares for years, decades even, is the preferred time horizon and what I'm planning to do with the stocks in my portfolio.</p><p><blockquote>虽然打破日内交易心态显然是这种简洁谚语的目标，但持有股票数年甚至数十年是首选的时间范围，也是我计划如何处理投资组合中的股票。</blockquote></p><p>However, with the three stocks below, I plan on never selling them because they have proven to be successful businesses with staying power and competitive advantages that will keep them well ahead of their rivals far into the future.</p><p><blockquote>然而，对于下面的三只股票，我打算永远不出售它们，因为它们已被证明是成功的企业，具有持久力和竞争优势，这将使它们在未来遥遥领先于竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p>American States Water</p><p><blockquote>美国各州水</blockquote></p><p>The \"rule of threes\" is critical for survival: You can survive for three minutes without air, three days without water, and three weeks without food. While Mark Twain once remarked, \"Buy land, they're not making it anymore,\" water is an even more scarce resource, and<b>American States Water</b>(NYSE:AWR)is tasked with mostly providing Southern California with clean water and electricity.</p><p><blockquote>“三法则”对生存至关重要：没有空气你可以生存三分钟，没有水你可以生存三天，没有食物你可以生存三周。虽然马克·吐温曾经说过，“买土地，他们再也买不起了”，但水是一种更加稀缺的资源，而且<b>美国各州水</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AWR）的任务主要是为南加州提供清洁的水和电。</blockquote></p><p>Water generation makes up the lion's share of its business, representing over two-thirds of American States' operating revenue in 2020, but another 25% comes from providing military installations around the country with water as well, and those are under long-term, 50-year contracts. Electricity makes up the rest of its revenue.</p><p><blockquote>水力发电占其业务的最大份额，占 2020 年美国各州营业收入的三分之二以上，但另外 25% 来自为全国各地的军事设施供水，这些设施都是根据长期的、50 年的合同。电力占其收入的其余部分。</blockquote></p><p>That allows American States Water to provide significant stability to investors. While it might not generate especiallyexciting capital appreciation, it makes up for it with steady dividend growth.</p><p><blockquote>这使得美国各州能够为投资者提供显著的稳定性。虽然它可能不会产生特别令人兴奋的资本增值，但它可以通过稳定的股息增长来弥补这一点。</blockquote></p><p>The water utility has paid dividends for over 81 consecutive years and has increased the payouts each year for 66 years. That puts it among an elite group of stocks known asDividend Kings, which are companies that have raised their dividend payments for 50 years or more. The surety of its payout may be one reason you will never want to sell American States Water stock either.</p><p><blockquote>该自来水公司已连续 81 年以上支付股息，并且 66 年来每年都增加股息。这使其跻身被称为股息之王的精英股票之列，这些公司在 50 年或更长时间内提高了股息支付。其支出的保证可能是您永远不想出售美国各州水务股票的原因之一。</blockquote></p><p>Colgate-Palmolive</p><p><blockquote>高露洁棕榄</blockquote></p><p>The strength of<b>Colgate-Palmolive</b>(NYSE:CL)is found in its portfolio of name brand consumer products -- everything from its leading toothpaste and dish washing liquids to Ajax, Murphy Oil, and Tom's of Maine. These are essential consumer and household goods people naturally reach for in good times and bad.</p><p><blockquote>的力量<b>高露洁棕榄</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：CL）出现在其知名品牌消费品产品组合中，从领先的牙膏和洗洁精到 Ajax、Murphy Oil 和 Tom's of Maine。这些都是人们在顺境和逆境中自然会接触到的基本消费品和家庭用品。</blockquote></p><p>There's comfort in knowing a product will perform time and again, and thatlegacy extends internationally&nbsp;where Colgate derives some 70% of its revenue and where it also has leading brands in most categories.</p><p><blockquote>知道一种产品会一次又一次地表现出色是一种安慰，而且这种遗产延伸到了国际上，高露洁约70%的收入来自高露洁，并且在大多数类别中也拥有领先品牌。</blockquote></p><p>Yet many investors turn to Colgate-Palmolive because of its enviable record in paying a dividend. It made its first payout in 1895 and never stopped, and then began increasing the dividend every year beginning in 1963, meaning for nearly 60 years investors could count on a rising stream of income from the consumer products giant.</p><p><blockquote>然而，许多投资者转向高露洁棕榄，因为其令人羡慕的股息支付记录。该公司于 1895 年首次派息，并且从未停止过，然后从 1963 年开始每年增加股息，这意味着近 60 年来，投资者可以指望这家消费品巨头带来不断增长的收入流。</blockquote></p><p>A stellar track record, a solid financial base, and a global reach are just some of the reasons why Colgate is a fixture in my portfolio.</p><p><blockquote>出色的业绩记录、坚实的财务基础和全球影响力只是高露洁成为我投资组合中固定资产的部分原因。</blockquote></p><p>ExxonMobil</p><p><blockquote>埃克森美孚</blockquote></p><p>Due to innovations in the oil and gas industry and massive new fields discovered, the dire predictions of so-called \"peak oil\" have largely faded from the headlines, but the global pandemic revealed the ways in which industry majors like<b>ExxonMobil</b>(NYSE:XOM)are still vulnerable.</p><p><blockquote>由于石油和天然气行业的创新和大量新油田的发现，所谓“石油峰值”的可怕预测已基本从头条新闻中消失，但全球疫情揭示了行业巨头喜欢的方式<b>埃克森美孚</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XOM）仍然脆弱。</blockquote></p><p>That it took nearly all the world's governments virtually closing down their economies to weaken the oil and gas giant, however, shows just how enduring its business really is. There may be a movement toward greener energy, but fossil fuel demand is going to be a key component of our everyday life for decades to come.</p><p><blockquote>然而，几乎世界上所有的政府都几乎关闭了经济来削弱这家石油和天然气巨头的实力，这表明它的业务实际上是多么持久。可能会有一场走向绿色能源的运动，但化石燃料需求将成为未来几十年我们日常生活的关键组成部分。</blockquote></p><p>Still, Exxon is going to be a slimmer operation than it was in years past. Cost-cutting measures rule the day in an effort to rein in the significant mountain of debt it has accumulated from its capital intensive exploration and development projects. Low oil prices caused it to shelve most initiatives for the time being, but as economies reopen and demand is reignited, higher pricing will help alleviate the concerns many hold about its ability to meet its obligations.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，埃克森美孚的运营规模仍将比过去几年更加精简。削减成本措施占据主导地位，以努力控制其资本密集型勘探和开发项目积累的巨额债务。低油价导致其暂时搁置了大多数举措，但随着经济重新开放和需求重新点燃，更高的定价将有助于缓解许多人对其履行义务能力的担忧。</blockquote></p><p>One of those is its dividend. Unlike other oil majors, Exxon maintained that not cutting it was an imperative. 2020 was thefirst time in 18 yearsit did not raise the payout. However, because dividends for the calendar year were higher than the prior year, the company continues to be considered aDividend Aristocratas it has been for nearly four decades.</p><p><blockquote>其中之一就是它的股息。与其他石油巨头不同，埃克森美孚坚称不削减石油是当务之急。2020 年是 18 年来 SIT 首次没有提高派息。然而，由于日历年的股息高于上一年，近四十年来，该公司继续被视为股息贵族。</blockquote></p><p>I'm betting ExxonMobil is going to be around a lot longer than most green-tinted companies that are trying to supplant it, and I plan to hang on for the long term.</p><p><blockquote>我敢打赌，埃克森美孚的存在时间将比大多数试图取代它的绿色公司长得多，我计划长期坚持下去。</blockquote></p><p>Should you invest $1,000 in Exxon Mobil Corporation right now?</p><p><blockquote>您现在应该向埃克森美孚公司投资 1,000 美元吗？</blockquote></p><p>Before you consider Exxon Mobil Corporation, you'll want to hear this.</p><p><blockquote>在您考虑埃克森美孚公司之前，您会想听听这个。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Investing legends and Motley Fool Co-founders David and Tom Gardner just revealed what they believe are the<b>10 best stocks</b>for investors to buy right now... and Exxon Mobil Corporation wasn't one of them.</p><p><blockquote>投资传奇人物和 Motley Fool 联合创始人 David 和 Tom Gardner 刚刚透露了他们认为<b>10只最佳股票</b>投资者现在就买……埃克森美孚公司不在其中。</blockquote></p><p>The online investing service they've run for nearly two decades,<i>Motley Fool Stock Advisor</i>, has beaten the stock market by over 4X.* And right now, they think there are 10 stocks that are better buys.</p><p><blockquote>他们经营了近二十年的在线投资服务，<i>Motley Fool 股票顾问</i>已超过股市 4 倍以上。* 目前，他们认为有 10 只股票更值得购买。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Stocks I'm Never Selling<blockquote>我从不出售的 3 只股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Stocks I'm Never Selling<blockquote>我从不出售的 3 只股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The motley fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-04 10:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>I've fully bought into the Warren Buffett axiom of \"the best time to sell a stock is never,\" but as we also all know, never say never. After all, even the Oracle of Omaha routinely sells stocks he owns.</p><p><blockquote>我完全相信沃伦·巴菲特的格言“出售股票的最佳时机永远不是”，但众所周知，永远不要说永远。毕竟，即使是奥马哈先知也经常出售他持有的股票。</blockquote></p><p>While breaking the day-trading mindset is obviously the goal of such pithy sayings, holding onto shares for years, decades even, is the preferred time horizon and what I'm planning to do with the stocks in my portfolio.</p><p><blockquote>虽然打破日内交易心态显然是这种简洁谚语的目标，但持有股票数年甚至数十年是首选的时间范围，也是我计划如何处理投资组合中的股票。</blockquote></p><p>However, with the three stocks below, I plan on never selling them because they have proven to be successful businesses with staying power and competitive advantages that will keep them well ahead of their rivals far into the future.</p><p><blockquote>然而，对于下面的三只股票，我打算永远不出售它们，因为它们已被证明是成功的企业，具有持久力和竞争优势，这将使它们在未来遥遥领先于竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p>American States Water</p><p><blockquote>美国各州水</blockquote></p><p>The \"rule of threes\" is critical for survival: You can survive for three minutes without air, three days without water, and three weeks without food. While Mark Twain once remarked, \"Buy land, they're not making it anymore,\" water is an even more scarce resource, and<b>American States Water</b>(NYSE:AWR)is tasked with mostly providing Southern California with clean water and electricity.</p><p><blockquote>“三法则”对生存至关重要：没有空气你可以生存三分钟，没有水你可以生存三天，没有食物你可以生存三周。虽然马克·吐温曾经说过，“买土地，他们再也买不起了”，但水是一种更加稀缺的资源，而且<b>美国各州水</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AWR）的任务主要是为南加州提供清洁的水和电。</blockquote></p><p>Water generation makes up the lion's share of its business, representing over two-thirds of American States' operating revenue in 2020, but another 25% comes from providing military installations around the country with water as well, and those are under long-term, 50-year contracts. Electricity makes up the rest of its revenue.</p><p><blockquote>水力发电占其业务的最大份额，占 2020 年美国各州营业收入的三分之二以上，但另外 25% 来自为全国各地的军事设施供水，这些设施都是根据长期的、50 年的合同。电力占其收入的其余部分。</blockquote></p><p>That allows American States Water to provide significant stability to investors. While it might not generate especiallyexciting capital appreciation, it makes up for it with steady dividend growth.</p><p><blockquote>这使得美国各州能够为投资者提供显著的稳定性。虽然它可能不会产生特别令人兴奋的资本增值，但它可以通过稳定的股息增长来弥补这一点。</blockquote></p><p>The water utility has paid dividends for over 81 consecutive years and has increased the payouts each year for 66 years. That puts it among an elite group of stocks known asDividend Kings, which are companies that have raised their dividend payments for 50 years or more. The surety of its payout may be one reason you will never want to sell American States Water stock either.</p><p><blockquote>该自来水公司已连续 81 年以上支付股息，并且 66 年来每年都增加股息。这使其跻身被称为股息之王的精英股票之列，这些公司在 50 年或更长时间内提高了股息支付。其支出的保证可能是您永远不想出售美国各州水务股票的原因之一。</blockquote></p><p>Colgate-Palmolive</p><p><blockquote>高露洁棕榄</blockquote></p><p>The strength of<b>Colgate-Palmolive</b>(NYSE:CL)is found in its portfolio of name brand consumer products -- everything from its leading toothpaste and dish washing liquids to Ajax, Murphy Oil, and Tom's of Maine. These are essential consumer and household goods people naturally reach for in good times and bad.</p><p><blockquote>的力量<b>高露洁棕榄</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：CL）出现在其知名品牌消费品产品组合中，从领先的牙膏和洗洁精到 Ajax、Murphy Oil 和 Tom's of Maine。这些都是人们在顺境和逆境中自然会接触到的基本消费品和家庭用品。</blockquote></p><p>There's comfort in knowing a product will perform time and again, and thatlegacy extends internationally&nbsp;where Colgate derives some 70% of its revenue and where it also has leading brands in most categories.</p><p><blockquote>知道一种产品会一次又一次地表现出色是一种安慰，而且这种遗产延伸到了国际上，高露洁约70%的收入来自高露洁，并且在大多数类别中也拥有领先品牌。</blockquote></p><p>Yet many investors turn to Colgate-Palmolive because of its enviable record in paying a dividend. It made its first payout in 1895 and never stopped, and then began increasing the dividend every year beginning in 1963, meaning for nearly 60 years investors could count on a rising stream of income from the consumer products giant.</p><p><blockquote>然而，许多投资者转向高露洁棕榄，因为其令人羡慕的股息支付记录。该公司于 1895 年首次派息，并且从未停止过，然后从 1963 年开始每年增加股息，这意味着近 60 年来，投资者可以指望这家消费品巨头带来不断增长的收入流。</blockquote></p><p>A stellar track record, a solid financial base, and a global reach are just some of the reasons why Colgate is a fixture in my portfolio.</p><p><blockquote>出色的业绩记录、坚实的财务基础和全球影响力只是高露洁成为我投资组合中固定资产的部分原因。</blockquote></p><p>ExxonMobil</p><p><blockquote>埃克森美孚</blockquote></p><p>Due to innovations in the oil and gas industry and massive new fields discovered, the dire predictions of so-called \"peak oil\" have largely faded from the headlines, but the global pandemic revealed the ways in which industry majors like<b>ExxonMobil</b>(NYSE:XOM)are still vulnerable.</p><p><blockquote>由于石油和天然气行业的创新和大量新油田的发现，所谓“石油峰值”的可怕预测已基本从头条新闻中消失，但全球疫情揭示了行业巨头喜欢的方式<b>埃克森美孚</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XOM）仍然脆弱。</blockquote></p><p>That it took nearly all the world's governments virtually closing down their economies to weaken the oil and gas giant, however, shows just how enduring its business really is. There may be a movement toward greener energy, but fossil fuel demand is going to be a key component of our everyday life for decades to come.</p><p><blockquote>然而，几乎世界上所有的政府都几乎关闭了经济来削弱这家石油和天然气巨头的实力，这表明它的业务实际上是多么持久。可能会有一场走向绿色能源的运动，但化石燃料需求将成为未来几十年我们日常生活的关键组成部分。</blockquote></p><p>Still, Exxon is going to be a slimmer operation than it was in years past. Cost-cutting measures rule the day in an effort to rein in the significant mountain of debt it has accumulated from its capital intensive exploration and development projects. Low oil prices caused it to shelve most initiatives for the time being, but as economies reopen and demand is reignited, higher pricing will help alleviate the concerns many hold about its ability to meet its obligations.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，埃克森美孚的运营规模仍将比过去几年更加精简。削减成本措施占据主导地位，以努力控制其资本密集型勘探和开发项目积累的巨额债务。低油价导致其暂时搁置了大多数举措，但随着经济重新开放和需求重新点燃，更高的定价将有助于缓解许多人对其履行义务能力的担忧。</blockquote></p><p>One of those is its dividend. Unlike other oil majors, Exxon maintained that not cutting it was an imperative. 2020 was thefirst time in 18 yearsit did not raise the payout. However, because dividends for the calendar year were higher than the prior year, the company continues to be considered aDividend Aristocratas it has been for nearly four decades.</p><p><blockquote>其中之一就是它的股息。与其他石油巨头不同，埃克森美孚坚称不削减石油是当务之急。2020 年是 18 年来 SIT 首次没有提高派息。然而，由于日历年的股息高于上一年，近四十年来，该公司继续被视为股息贵族。</blockquote></p><p>I'm betting ExxonMobil is going to be around a lot longer than most green-tinted companies that are trying to supplant it, and I plan to hang on for the long term.</p><p><blockquote>我敢打赌，埃克森美孚的存在时间将比大多数试图取代它的绿色公司长得多，我计划长期坚持下去。</blockquote></p><p>Should you invest $1,000 in Exxon Mobil Corporation right now?</p><p><blockquote>您现在应该向埃克森美孚公司投资 1,000 美元吗？</blockquote></p><p>Before you consider Exxon Mobil Corporation, you'll want to hear this.</p><p><blockquote>在您考虑埃克森美孚公司之前，您会想听听这个。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Investing legends and Motley Fool Co-founders David and Tom Gardner just revealed what they believe are the<b>10 best stocks</b>for investors to buy right now... and Exxon Mobil Corporation wasn't one of them.</p><p><blockquote>投资传奇人物和 Motley Fool 联合创始人 David 和 Tom Gardner 刚刚透露了他们认为<b>10只最佳股票</b>投资者现在就买……埃克森美孚公司不在其中。</blockquote></p><p>The online investing service they've run for nearly two decades,<i>Motley Fool Stock Advisor</i>, has beaten the stock market by over 4X.* And right now, they think there are 10 stocks that are better buys.</p><p><blockquote>他们经营了近二十年的在线投资服务，<i>Motley Fool 股票顾问</i>已超过股市 4 倍以上。* 目前，他们认为有 10 只股票更值得购买。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/03/3-stocks-im-never-selling/\">The motley fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78e4944908df81bfad358b07ba0dc819","relate_stocks":{"XOM":"埃克森美孚","CL":"高露洁","AWR":"美洲国家水务"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/03/3-stocks-im-never-selling/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103003554","content_text":"I've fully bought into the Warren Buffett axiom of \"the best time to sell a stock is never,\" but as we also all know, never say never. After all, even the Oracle of Omaha routinely sells stocks he owns.While breaking the day-trading mindset is obviously the goal of such pithy sayings, holding onto shares for years, decades even, is the preferred time horizon and what I'm planning to do with the stocks in my portfolio.However, with the three stocks below, I plan on never selling them because they have proven to be successful businesses with staying power and competitive advantages that will keep them well ahead of their rivals far into the future.American States WaterThe \"rule of threes\" is critical for survival: You can survive for three minutes without air, three days without water, and three weeks without food. While Mark Twain once remarked, \"Buy land, they're not making it anymore,\" water is an even more scarce resource, andAmerican States Water(NYSE:AWR)is tasked with mostly providing Southern California with clean water and electricity.Water generation makes up the lion's share of its business, representing over two-thirds of American States' operating revenue in 2020, but another 25% comes from providing military installations around the country with water as well, and those are under long-term, 50-year contracts. Electricity makes up the rest of its revenue.That allows American States Water to provide significant stability to investors. While it might not generate especiallyexciting capital appreciation, it makes up for it with steady dividend growth.The water utility has paid dividends for over 81 consecutive years and has increased the payouts each year for 66 years. That puts it among an elite group of stocks known asDividend Kings, which are companies that have raised their dividend payments for 50 years or more. The surety of its payout may be one reason you will never want to sell American States Water stock either.Colgate-PalmoliveThe strength ofColgate-Palmolive(NYSE:CL)is found in its portfolio of name brand consumer products -- everything from its leading toothpaste and dish washing liquids to Ajax, Murphy Oil, and Tom's of Maine. These are essential consumer and household goods people naturally reach for in good times and bad.There's comfort in knowing a product will perform time and again, and thatlegacy extends internationally where Colgate derives some 70% of its revenue and where it also has leading brands in most categories.Yet many investors turn to Colgate-Palmolive because of its enviable record in paying a dividend. It made its first payout in 1895 and never stopped, and then began increasing the dividend every year beginning in 1963, meaning for nearly 60 years investors could count on a rising stream of income from the consumer products giant.A stellar track record, a solid financial base, and a global reach are just some of the reasons why Colgate is a fixture in my portfolio.ExxonMobilDue to innovations in the oil and gas industry and massive new fields discovered, the dire predictions of so-called \"peak oil\" have largely faded from the headlines, but the global pandemic revealed the ways in which industry majors likeExxonMobil(NYSE:XOM)are still vulnerable.That it took nearly all the world's governments virtually closing down their economies to weaken the oil and gas giant, however, shows just how enduring its business really is. There may be a movement toward greener energy, but fossil fuel demand is going to be a key component of our everyday life for decades to come.Still, Exxon is going to be a slimmer operation than it was in years past. Cost-cutting measures rule the day in an effort to rein in the significant mountain of debt it has accumulated from its capital intensive exploration and development projects. Low oil prices caused it to shelve most initiatives for the time being, but as economies reopen and demand is reignited, higher pricing will help alleviate the concerns many hold about its ability to meet its obligations.One of those is its dividend. Unlike other oil majors, Exxon maintained that not cutting it was an imperative. 2020 was thefirst time in 18 yearsit did not raise the payout. However, because dividends for the calendar year were higher than the prior year, the company continues to be considered aDividend Aristocratas it has been for nearly four decades.I'm betting ExxonMobil is going to be around a lot longer than most green-tinted companies that are trying to supplant it, and I plan to hang on for the long term.Should you invest $1,000 in Exxon Mobil Corporation right now?Before you consider Exxon Mobil Corporation, you'll want to hear this.Investing legends and Motley Fool Co-founders David and Tom Gardner just revealed what they believe are the10 best stocksfor investors to buy right now... and Exxon Mobil Corporation wasn't one of them.The online investing service they've run for nearly two decades,Motley Fool Stock Advisor, has beaten the stock market by over 4X.* And right now, they think there are 10 stocks that are better buys.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AWR":0.9,"CL":0.9,"XOM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":922,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":345921818,"gmtCreate":1618273687134,"gmtModify":1634294046172,"author":{"id":"3579925209341859","authorId":"3579925209341859","name":"FlyHighFly","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a610574cab0fe2ee4e79d08d0eb9ce6c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579925209341859","authorIdStr":"3579925209341859"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Pls help to like and comment. Tks","listText":"Pls help to like and comment. Tks","text":"Pls help to like and comment. Tks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/345921818","repostId":"1146450605","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":640,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":149865932,"gmtCreate":1625715403826,"gmtModify":1633938055560,"author":{"id":"3579925209341859","authorId":"3579925209341859","name":"FlyHighFly","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a610574cab0fe2ee4e79d08d0eb9ce6c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579925209341859","authorIdStr":"3579925209341859"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/149865932","repostId":"1176865752","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3325,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}