+关注
smartzhang
暂无个人介绍
IP属地：吉林
258
关注
26
粉丝
4
主题
0
勋章
主贴
热门
smartzhang
2021-06-07
$水滴(WDH)$
水滴要坚持吗？
smartzhang
2021-07-15
$水滴(WDH)$
水滴太难了
smartzhang
2021-06-10
$水滴(WDH)$
水滴无语了
smartzhang
2021-06-14
$水滴(WDH)$
水滴财报会迎来拐点吗？
smartzhang
2021-06-30
$水滴(WDH)$
水啥时候能不滴了？
smartzhang
2021-06-05
$水滴(WDH)$
哈哈哈
smartzhang
2021-05-31
$水滴(WDH)$
水滴多长时间能上来？
smartzhang
2021-06-28
$每日优鲜(MF)$
优鲜今天会怎样走？欢迎预测
smartzhang
2021-06-26
$每日优鲜(MF)$
优鲜有惊无险
smartzhang
2021-06-04
$水滴(WDH)$
水滴让人等多久啊
去老虎APP查看更多动态
{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3579840132432347","uuid":"3579840132432347","gmtCreate":1616852426732,"gmtModify":1616943775911,"name":"smartzhang","pinyin":"smartzhang","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4641e31d220127619216e66c3e4ec7ae","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":26,"headSize":258,"tweetSize":304,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":3,"name":"书生虎","nameTw":"書生虎","represent":"努力向上","factor":"发布10条非转发主帖,其中5条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":4,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-3","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"偶像虎友","description":"加入老虎社区1500天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b40ae7da5bf081a1c84df14bf9e6367","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f160eceddd7c284a8e1136557615cfad","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11792805c468334a9b31c39f95a41c6a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2025.05.06","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-1","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"精英交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到30次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab0f87127c854ce3191a752d57b46edc","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9835ce48b8c8743566d344ac7a7ba8c","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76754b53ce7a90019f132c1d2fbc698f","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.01.11","exceedPercentage":"60.14%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37-1","templateUuid":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37","name":"博闻投资者","description":"累计交易超过10只正股","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":4,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"吉林","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":4,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"hot","tweets":[{"id":624172376,"gmtCreate":1677203546295,"gmtModify":1677203547816,"author":{"id":"3579840132432347","authorId":"3579840132432347","name":"smartzhang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4641e31d220127619216e66c3e4ec7ae","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579840132432347","idStr":"3579840132432347"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/624172376","repostId":"625232247","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":625232247,"gmtCreate":1676476382390,"gmtModify":1676476409223,"author":{"id":"3527667590215376","authorId":"3527667590215376","name":"期权小班长","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e785bea87af8baf08d2b24111b78c16a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667590215376","idStr":"3527667590215376"},"themes":[],"title":"机构利用信息空窗期疯狂下注","htmlText":"瞩目的1月CPI公布后，短期期权交易量暴增，具体来说是到期日在3月17日之前的期权交易量暴增。机构可能想趁着3月议息会议前再大捞一把。其中2月24号到期的期权交易量陡然增长，如果说2月17日到期和3月17日到期是月权所以成交量较大，那么处于中间位置的周权有什么吸引力呢？从宏观日历来看，3月10日当周会公布美国2月非农数据，3月17日当周会公布美国2月CPI，而3月24日当周则要召开FOMC会议。而周二公布完1月CPI后，虽然下周会公布FOMC会议纪要和PCE，其重要性远远比不过上面三个事件，所以近三周成为相对的数据空窗期。标题用的疯狂下注没有夸张的成分：<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/ARKK%2020230224%2043.0%20CALL\"></a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/ARKK 20230224 43.0 CALL\">$ARKK 20230224 43.0 CALL$ </a>，成交量达到9万张，成交金额超过300万，之所以如此关注ARKK的期权异动，因为ARKK的第一权重股是特斯拉，特斯拉占比约为10%，交易者对ARKK方向的判断就约等同于对特斯拉的方向判断。不过比较遗憾的是这张期权的买卖方向不太明确，43这个行权价也不太好划分，买卖都有道理。结合今天美元上破104，我依然觉得sell call是不错的策略，次选末日sell put以及put价差策略。比如谷歌sell call: <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/GOOG%2020230721%20100.0%20CALL\">$GOOG%2020230721%20100.0%20CALL$ </</a>","listText":"瞩目的1月CPI公布后，短期期权交易量暴增，具体来说是到期日在3月17日之前的期权交易量暴增。机构可能想趁着3月议息会议前再大捞一把。其中2月24号到期的期权交易量陡然增长，如果说2月17日到期和3月17日到期是月权所以成交量较大，那么处于中间位置的周权有什么吸引力呢？从宏观日历来看，3月10日当周会公布美国2月非农数据，3月17日当周会公布美国2月CPI，而3月24日当周则要召开FOMC会议。而周二公布完1月CPI后，虽然下周会公布FOMC会议纪要和PCE，其重要性远远比不过上面三个事件，所以近三周成为相对的数据空窗期。标题用的疯狂下注没有夸张的成分：<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/ARKK%2020230224%2043.0%20CALL\"></a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/ARKK 20230224 43.0 CALL\">$ARKK 20230224 43.0 CALL$ </a>，成交量达到9万张，成交金额超过300万，之所以如此关注ARKK的期权异动，因为ARKK的第一权重股是特斯拉，特斯拉占比约为10%，交易者对ARKK方向的判断就约等同于对特斯拉的方向判断。不过比较遗憾的是这张期权的买卖方向不太明确，43这个行权价也不太好划分，买卖都有道理。结合今天美元上破104，我依然觉得sell call是不错的策略，次选末日sell put以及put价差策略。比如谷歌sell call: <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/GOOG%2020230721%20100.0%20CALL\">$GOOG%2020230721%20100.0%20CALL$ </</a>","text":"瞩目的1月CPI公布后，短期期权交易量暴增，具体来说是到期日在3月17日之前的期权交易量暴增。机构可能想趁着3月议息会议前再大捞一把。其中2月24号到期的期权交易量陡然增长，如果说2月17日到期和3月17日到期是月权所以成交量较大，那么处于中间位置的周权有什么吸引力呢？从宏观日历来看，3月10日当周会公布美国2月非农数据，3月17日当周会公布美国2月CPI，而3月24日当周则要召开FOMC会议。而周二公布完1月CPI后，虽然下周会公布FOMC会议纪要和PCE，其重要性远远比不过上面三个事件，所以近三周成为相对的数据空窗期。标题用的疯狂下注没有夸张的成分：$ARKK 20230224 43.0 CALL$ ，成交量达到9万张，成交金额超过300万，之所以如此关注ARKK的期权异动，因为ARKK的第一权重股是特斯拉，特斯拉占比约为10%，交易者对ARKK方向的判断就约等同于对特斯拉的方向判断。不过比较遗憾的是这张期权的买卖方向不太明确，43这个行权价也不太好划分，买卖都有道理。结合今天美元上破104，我依然觉得sell call是不错的策略，次选末日sell put以及put价差策略。比如谷歌sell call: $GOOG%2020230721%20100.0%20CALL$ </","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ea1ef5ee96981585da232ca2d5c137d","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea576eaaf59bd0d57a704dce8714474a","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aa9550920666420df646e7f39950101","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/625232247","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4504,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":624172990,"gmtCreate":1677203535010,"gmtModify":1677203536527,"author":{"id":"3579840132432347","authorId":"3579840132432347","name":"smartzhang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4641e31d220127619216e66c3e4ec7ae","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579840132432347","idStr":"3579840132432347"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/624172990","repostId":"625600488","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":625600488,"gmtCreate":1676388724544,"gmtModify":1676388739406,"author":{"id":"3440721572920950","authorId":"3440721572920950","name":"美股解毒师","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbf0f514b8e5abb92266789b89f6e1e6","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3440721572920950","idStr":"3440721572920950"},"themes":[],"title":"1月CPI为何会超预期？","htmlText":"2月14日，美国劳工统计局公布了1月CPI数据，整体同比上升6.4%，高于预期的6.2%，略低于前一个月的6.5%；环比上涨0.5%，为三个月来最大涨幅，前值-0.1%。核心CPI同比上升5.6%，增速继续回落，是2021年12月以来的最低水平，但仍高于预期5.5%，略低于前一个月的5.7%；环比上升0.4%，与预期持平，略高于前值0.3%。其中，高于整体环比的项目包括：外出就餐、能源商品、汽油、燃气服务、服饰、医疗保健品、住所、交通服务。低于整体环比增速的项目包括：在家就餐、燃料、电费、新车、二手车和卡车、医疗服务。燃料、二手车、医疗服务的环比甚至是下降的。同比来看，二手车同比下降了11.6%。住房价格的上涨成了CPI上涨的重要原因，约占月度涨幅的一半。住房通胀7.88%，高于12月的7.51%，创历史新高；租金通胀8.56%，高于12月的8.35%，同创历史新高。不过住房价格在CPI数据中具有很大的滞后性，其行业数据显示住房租金价格已经见顶下滑。住房通胀（蓝）与房屋价格指数（黑）同比增速对比当然，1月CPI最终超了预期，更重要的原因，我们此前在《<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/625810780\" target=\"_blank\">CPI前夕，这个新变化一定要注意！</a>》也提到了，是CPI权重的更新！从2023年开始，CPI的篮子将反映的不是2019-2020的权重，而是2021年的。以前CPI权重每两年更新一次，从这次起将改为每年更新一次。而2021年的权重相对于2019-2020年，重要的变化在于，一些拖累CPI上行的项目，比如二手车、医疗服务等的权重相对更低，而拉升CPI的项目，房租权重变得更高。这就造成了分析师按照原有权重进行测算，预测值会偏低。事实上，服务业通胀将比商品通胀更加顽固更加难以抑制，因为它本身的弹性小，粘性强。根据芝","listText":"2月14日，美国劳工统计局公布了1月CPI数据，整体同比上升6.4%，高于预期的6.2%，略低于前一个月的6.5%；环比上涨0.5%，为三个月来最大涨幅，前值-0.1%。核心CPI同比上升5.6%，增速继续回落，是2021年12月以来的最低水平，但仍高于预期5.5%，略低于前一个月的5.7%；环比上升0.4%，与预期持平，略高于前值0.3%。其中，高于整体环比的项目包括：外出就餐、能源商品、汽油、燃气服务、服饰、医疗保健品、住所、交通服务。低于整体环比增速的项目包括：在家就餐、燃料、电费、新车、二手车和卡车、医疗服务。燃料、二手车、医疗服务的环比甚至是下降的。同比来看，二手车同比下降了11.6%。住房价格的上涨成了CPI上涨的重要原因，约占月度涨幅的一半。住房通胀7.88%，高于12月的7.51%，创历史新高；租金通胀8.56%，高于12月的8.35%，同创历史新高。不过住房价格在CPI数据中具有很大的滞后性，其行业数据显示住房租金价格已经见顶下滑。住房通胀（蓝）与房屋价格指数（黑）同比增速对比当然，1月CPI最终超了预期，更重要的原因，我们此前在《<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/625810780\" target=\"_blank\">CPI前夕，这个新变化一定要注意！</a>》也提到了，是CPI权重的更新！从2023年开始，CPI的篮子将反映的不是2019-2020的权重，而是2021年的。以前CPI权重每两年更新一次，从这次起将改为每年更新一次。而2021年的权重相对于2019-2020年，重要的变化在于，一些拖累CPI上行的项目，比如二手车、医疗服务等的权重相对更低，而拉升CPI的项目，房租权重变得更高。这就造成了分析师按照原有权重进行测算，预测值会偏低。事实上，服务业通胀将比商品通胀更加顽固更加难以抑制，因为它本身的弹性小，粘性强。根据芝","text":"2月14日，美国劳工统计局公布了1月CPI数据，整体同比上升6.4%，高于预期的6.2%，略低于前一个月的6.5%；环比上涨0.5%，为三个月来最大涨幅，前值-0.1%。核心CPI同比上升5.6%，增速继续回落，是2021年12月以来的最低水平，但仍高于预期5.5%，略低于前一个月的5.7%；环比上升0.4%，与预期持平，略高于前值0.3%。其中，高于整体环比的项目包括：外出就餐、能源商品、汽油、燃气服务、服饰、医疗保健品、住所、交通服务。低于整体环比增速的项目包括：在家就餐、燃料、电费、新车、二手车和卡车、医疗服务。燃料、二手车、医疗服务的环比甚至是下降的。同比来看，二手车同比下降了11.6%。住房价格的上涨成了CPI上涨的重要原因，约占月度涨幅的一半。住房通胀7.88%，高于12月的7.51%，创历史新高；租金通胀8.56%，高于12月的8.35%，同创历史新高。不过住房价格在CPI数据中具有很大的滞后性，其行业数据显示住房租金价格已经见顶下滑。住房通胀（蓝）与房屋价格指数（黑）同比增速对比当然，1月CPI最终超了预期，更重要的原因，我们此前在《CPI前夕，这个新变化一定要注意！》也提到了，是CPI权重的更新！从2023年开始，CPI的篮子将反映的不是2019-2020的权重，而是2021年的。以前CPI权重每两年更新一次，从这次起将改为每年更新一次。而2021年的权重相对于2019-2020年，重要的变化在于，一些拖累CPI上行的项目，比如二手车、医疗服务等的权重相对更低，而拉升CPI的项目，房租权重变得更高。这就造成了分析师按照原有权重进行测算，预测值会偏低。事实上，服务业通胀将比商品通胀更加顽固更加难以抑制，因为它本身的弹性小，粘性强。根据芝","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb6df3856d860862e0c1d724053edca0","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f13ab039f6b9326396e25acac25529a","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6d631cec045ce8c1650a91312218f41","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/625600488","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4668,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":624172023,"gmtCreate":1677203524863,"gmtModify":1677203526839,"author":{"id":"3579840132432347","authorId":"3579840132432347","name":"smartzhang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4641e31d220127619216e66c3e4ec7ae","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579840132432347","idStr":"3579840132432347"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/624172023","repostId":"625150631","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":625150631,"gmtCreate":1676302603123,"gmtModify":1744960886834,"author":{"id":"3527667590215376","authorId":"3527667590215376","name":"期权小班长","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e785bea87af8baf08d2b24111b78c16a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667590215376","idStr":"3527667590215376"},"themes":[],"title":"CPI、停战、危险化学品火灾","htmlText":"明天周二将公布美国1月CPi数据，目前市场一致预期是通胀下降趋势放缓。汽油价格上涨，商品通胀势头放缓以及服务价格依然强劲上涨，应该会提振整体和核心数据。具体来说：整体CPI环比上涨0.5%（前值向上修正为0.1%），同比上涨6.4%（前值为上涨6.5%）。核心CPI环比上涨0.5%（前值向上修正为0.4%），高于截至2月10日的0.4%的普遍预估，同比上涨5.6%，高于前值5.7%。1月份CPI报告有可能改变市场对通胀将很快消失的看法。不过数据公布后市场是否马上开启避险模式要打个问号，预期落地后行情可能反而看涨。但我不建议追多，逢高做空是更好的选择。本周影响大盘的另一个宏观变量就是俄乌战争，周末传闻俄乌即将举行无条件谈判，外界猜测可能是停战前最后的谈判。这个传闻一定程度上能对冲CPI数据的利空，不过一旦传闻证伪或者无法停战，那叠加CPI数据就是双重负面影响。最后谈谈盘前传闻愈演愈烈的危险化学品火灾事件。脱轨的列车来自上市公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NSC\">$诺福克南方(NSC)$</a> 。NSC公司主要在美国东南部、东部和中西不从事原材料、中间产品和制成品的铁路运输，是煤炭、汽车和工业产品的运输商。2月3日一列火车在俄亥俄州东巴勒斯坦脱轨，引发了一场化学火灾。而根据摩根大通研报的说法，这就不是个事儿：幸运的是，据俄亥俄州环保局称，目前没有人员伤亡报告，附近的饮用水也没有受到影响。美国国家运输安全委员会(NTSB)将提供官方最新消息，目前在强制撤离区内的一些巴勒斯坦东部居民拒绝离开家园。（Fortunately there are no reported injuries or fatalities and the nearby drinking water has not been affected at this time per","listText":"明天周二将公布美国1月CPi数据，目前市场一致预期是通胀下降趋势放缓。汽油价格上涨，商品通胀势头放缓以及服务价格依然强劲上涨，应该会提振整体和核心数据。具体来说：整体CPI环比上涨0.5%（前值向上修正为0.1%），同比上涨6.4%（前值为上涨6.5%）。核心CPI环比上涨0.5%（前值向上修正为0.4%），高于截至2月10日的0.4%的普遍预估，同比上涨5.6%，高于前值5.7%。1月份CPI报告有可能改变市场对通胀将很快消失的看法。不过数据公布后市场是否马上开启避险模式要打个问号，预期落地后行情可能反而看涨。但我不建议追多，逢高做空是更好的选择。本周影响大盘的另一个宏观变量就是俄乌战争，周末传闻俄乌即将举行无条件谈判，外界猜测可能是停战前最后的谈判。这个传闻一定程度上能对冲CPI数据的利空，不过一旦传闻证伪或者无法停战，那叠加CPI数据就是双重负面影响。最后谈谈盘前传闻愈演愈烈的危险化学品火灾事件。脱轨的列车来自上市公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NSC\">$诺福克南方(NSC)$</a> 。NSC公司主要在美国东南部、东部和中西不从事原材料、中间产品和制成品的铁路运输，是煤炭、汽车和工业产品的运输商。2月3日一列火车在俄亥俄州东巴勒斯坦脱轨，引发了一场化学火灾。而根据摩根大通研报的说法，这就不是个事儿：幸运的是，据俄亥俄州环保局称，目前没有人员伤亡报告，附近的饮用水也没有受到影响。美国国家运输安全委员会(NTSB)将提供官方最新消息，目前在强制撤离区内的一些巴勒斯坦东部居民拒绝离开家园。（Fortunately there are no reported injuries or fatalities and the nearby drinking water has not been affected at this time per","text":"明天周二将公布美国1月CPi数据，目前市场一致预期是通胀下降趋势放缓。汽油价格上涨，商品通胀势头放缓以及服务价格依然强劲上涨，应该会提振整体和核心数据。具体来说：整体CPI环比上涨0.5%（前值向上修正为0.1%），同比上涨6.4%（前值为上涨6.5%）。核心CPI环比上涨0.5%（前值向上修正为0.4%），高于截至2月10日的0.4%的普遍预估，同比上涨5.6%，高于前值5.7%。1月份CPI报告有可能改变市场对通胀将很快消失的看法。不过数据公布后市场是否马上开启避险模式要打个问号，预期落地后行情可能反而看涨。但我不建议追多，逢高做空是更好的选择。本周影响大盘的另一个宏观变量就是俄乌战争，周末传闻俄乌即将举行无条件谈判，外界猜测可能是停战前最后的谈判。这个传闻一定程度上能对冲CPI数据的利空，不过一旦传闻证伪或者无法停战，那叠加CPI数据就是双重负面影响。最后谈谈盘前传闻愈演愈烈的危险化学品火灾事件。脱轨的列车来自上市公司$诺福克南方(NSC)$ 。NSC公司主要在美国东南部、东部和中西不从事原材料、中间产品和制成品的铁路运输，是煤炭、汽车和工业产品的运输商。2月3日一列火车在俄亥俄州东巴勒斯坦脱轨，引发了一场化学火灾。而根据摩根大通研报的说法，这就不是个事儿：幸运的是，据俄亥俄州环保局称，目前没有人员伤亡报告，附近的饮用水也没有受到影响。美国国家运输安全委员会(NTSB)将提供官方最新消息，目前在强制撤离区内的一些巴勒斯坦东部居民拒绝离开家园。（Fortunately there are no reported injuries or fatalities and the nearby drinking water has not been affected at this time per","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4878ef1d08c60557b91e0ff66248ed59","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/625150631","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":1,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3425,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":625934278,"gmtCreate":1676010267494,"gmtModify":1676010269487,"author":{"id":"3579840132432347","authorId":"3579840132432347","name":"smartzhang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4641e31d220127619216e66c3e4ec7ae","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579840132432347","idStr":"3579840132432347"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/625934278","repostId":"622339653","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":622339653,"gmtCreate":1675179657472,"gmtModify":1710247940167,"author":{"id":"3527667590215376","authorId":"3527667590215376","name":"期权小班长","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e785bea87af8baf08d2b24111b78c16a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667590215376","idStr":"3527667590215376"},"themes":[],"title":"一种几乎不花钱的赌财报策略","htmlText":"重点说一下AMD和SNAP财报期权异动。AMD的答案比较简单，一眼就能看出来，三个特征很明显，给分题：<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AMD 20230203 68.0 PUT\">$AMD 20230203 68.0 PUT$ </a> 。财报会跌，目标价68美元。哪三个特征老玩家应该都知道，没看出来的朋友可以思考一下。（提醒一句送分题不是100%正确赌财报风险很大注意仓位）SNAP这边因为组合比较多，所以方向不太明确。但我一眼就看到一对特别逆天的财报组合：买<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SNAP%2020230203%2013.0%20CALL\"></a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SNAP 20230203 13.0 CALL\">$SNAP 20230203 13.0 CALL$ </a>卖<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SNAP%2020230203%2014.5%20CALL\"></a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SNAP 20230203 14.5 CALL\">$SNAP 20230203 14.5 CALL$ </a>乍看起来只是普普通通的看涨价差策略，买入浅度价外call，卖出深度价外call，当SNAP财报后上涨接近或超过13美元但低于14.5美元时即可获得浅度价外call翻倍的利润外加深度价外call 的时间价值。即押注SNAP涨幅在18%～32%之间。而当SNAP财报后上","listText":"重点说一下AMD和SNAP财报期权异动。AMD的答案比较简单，一眼就能看出来，三个特征很明显，给分题：<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AMD 20230203 68.0 PUT\">$AMD 20230203 68.0 PUT$ </a> 。财报会跌，目标价68美元。哪三个特征老玩家应该都知道，没看出来的朋友可以思考一下。（提醒一句送分题不是100%正确赌财报风险很大注意仓位）SNAP这边因为组合比较多，所以方向不太明确。但我一眼就看到一对特别逆天的财报组合：买<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SNAP%2020230203%2013.0%20CALL\"></a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SNAP 20230203 13.0 CALL\">$SNAP 20230203 13.0 CALL$ </a>卖<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SNAP%2020230203%2014.5%20CALL\"></a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SNAP 20230203 14.5 CALL\">$SNAP 20230203 14.5 CALL$ </a>乍看起来只是普普通通的看涨价差策略，买入浅度价外call，卖出深度价外call，当SNAP财报后上涨接近或超过13美元但低于14.5美元时即可获得浅度价外call翻倍的利润外加深度价外call 的时间价值。即押注SNAP涨幅在18%～32%之间。而当SNAP财报后上","text":"重点说一下AMD和SNAP财报期权异动。AMD的答案比较简单，一眼就能看出来，三个特征很明显，给分题：$AMD 20230203 68.0 PUT$ 。财报会跌，目标价68美元。哪三个特征老玩家应该都知道，没看出来的朋友可以思考一下。（提醒一句送分题不是100%正确赌财报风险很大注意仓位）SNAP这边因为组合比较多，所以方向不太明确。但我一眼就看到一对特别逆天的财报组合：买$SNAP 20230203 13.0 CALL$ 卖$SNAP 20230203 14.5 CALL$ 乍看起来只是普普通通的看涨价差策略，买入浅度价外call，卖出深度价外call，当SNAP财报后上涨接近或超过13美元但低于14.5美元时即可获得浅度价外call翻倍的利润外加深度价外call 的时间价值。即押注SNAP涨幅在18%～32%之间。而当SNAP财报后上","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82195222895a0fe2e9a2599f871518af","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/622339653","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3965,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":622350967,"gmtCreate":1675233997859,"gmtModify":1675234382716,"author":{"id":"3579840132432347","authorId":"3579840132432347","name":"smartzhang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4641e31d220127619216e66c3e4ec7ae","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579840132432347","idStr":"3579840132432347"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00941\">$中国移动(00941)$ </a>这个咋样","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00941\">$中国移动(00941)$ </a>这个咋样","text":"$中国移动(00941)$ 这个咋样","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7bb1ccbd50c56332847d77ac575238f","width":"1080","height":"1713"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/622350967","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3307,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":626613876,"gmtCreate":1674099105695,"gmtModify":1674099107844,"author":{"id":"3579840132432347","authorId":"3579840132432347","name":"smartzhang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4641e31d220127619216e66c3e4ec7ae","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579840132432347","idStr":"3579840132432347"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/626613876","repostId":"628559399","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":628559399,"gmtCreate":1673359728811,"gmtModify":1673359762377,"author":{"id":"3527667590215376","authorId":"3527667590215376","name":"期权小班长","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e785bea87af8baf08d2b24111b78c16a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667590215376","idStr":"3527667590215376"},"themes":[],"title":"期权大单异动：JD IQ TAL RL W","htmlText":"劲儿大的来了，喜闻乐见的异动大单时间。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">$京东(JD)$</a> 成交金额180万的看跌期权组合，用sell call对冲持有put产生的时间价值损失：买<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/JD%2020230421%2047.5%20PUT\">$JD%2020230421%2047.5%20PUT$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/JD 20230421 47.5 PUT\">$JD 20230421 47.5 PUT$ </a>卖<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/JD%2020230317%2090.0%20CALL\">$JD%2020230317%2090.0%20CALL$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/JD 20230317 90.0 CALL\">$JD 20230317 90.0 CALL$ </a>交易者sell call行权价谨慎的选择了2021年11月高点价位90，而不是2022年1月高点价位80。我想一个原因是极度价外更有利于回收权利金，另一个原因是这对组合很像领口策略，交易者可能持有京东股票，卖出call 的同时买put，在察觉到股价可能高位滞涨时进行保护。无论是哪种情况，都说明如果之前是看多做多的话现在应当逢高减仓或者跟这位老哥学习用期权进行保护了。相比京东，爱奇艺就直接多了：成交金额100万看跌","listText":"劲儿大的来了，喜闻乐见的异动大单时间。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">$京东(JD)$</a> 成交金额180万的看跌期权组合，用sell call对冲持有put产生的时间价值损失：买<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/JD%2020230421%2047.5%20PUT\">$JD%2020230421%2047.5%20PUT$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/JD 20230421 47.5 PUT\">$JD 20230421 47.5 PUT$ </a>卖<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/JD%2020230317%2090.0%20CALL\">$JD%2020230317%2090.0%20CALL$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/JD 20230317 90.0 CALL\">$JD 20230317 90.0 CALL$ </a>交易者sell call行权价谨慎的选择了2021年11月高点价位90，而不是2022年1月高点价位80。我想一个原因是极度价外更有利于回收权利金，另一个原因是这对组合很像领口策略，交易者可能持有京东股票，卖出call 的同时买put，在察觉到股价可能高位滞涨时进行保护。无论是哪种情况，都说明如果之前是看多做多的话现在应当逢高减仓或者跟这位老哥学习用期权进行保护了。相比京东，爱奇艺就直接多了：成交金额100万看跌","text":"劲儿大的来了，喜闻乐见的异动大单时间。$京东(JD)$ 成交金额180万的看跌期权组合，用sell call对冲持有put产生的时间价值损失：买$JD%2020230421%2047.5%20PUT$ $JD 20230421 47.5 PUT$ 卖$JD%2020230317%2090.0%20CALL$ $JD 20230317 90.0 CALL$ 交易者sell call行权价谨慎的选择了2021年11月高点价位90，而不是2022年1月高点价位80。我想一个原因是极度价外更有利于回收权利金，另一个原因是这对组合很像领口策略，交易者可能持有京东股票，卖出call 的同时买put，在察觉到股价可能高位滞涨时进行保护。无论是哪种情况，都说明如果之前是看多做多的话现在应当逢高减仓或者跟这位老哥学习用期权进行保护了。相比京东，爱奇艺就直接多了：成交金额100万看跌","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cf74e89a2bbf1106fbde132a5c7624b","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5cd2d14a49ea8ba276a3f14a6476a6cc","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49fc400fcb137780557520a7dc61c2b3","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/628559399","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":7,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5026,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":626613312,"gmtCreate":1674099073737,"gmtModify":1674099075511,"author":{"id":"3579840132432347","authorId":"3579840132432347","name":"smartzhang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4641e31d220127619216e66c3e4ec7ae","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579840132432347","idStr":"3579840132432347"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/626613312","repostId":"628223856","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":628223856,"gmtCreate":1673275631075,"gmtModify":1673276957153,"author":{"id":"3527667590215376","authorId":"3527667590215376","name":"期权小班长","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e785bea87af8baf08d2b24111b78c16a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667590215376","idStr":"3527667590215376"},"themes":[],"title":"CPI+财报季，如何布局大转折？","htmlText":"周五大涨非农数据起到的作用很小，解读上模棱两可，甚至偏鹰，但也在预期之中，因为早有预期就业数据下降速度不会很快。开盘后带动大涨的主要因素还是ISM制造业PMI爆冷，录得48.4，大大低于预期，创造2020年5月以来新低。实锤了经济衰退，市场一片欢呼，感觉有了倒逼美联储降息的空间。在我看来这就是进ICU前的蹦迪，因为这周就开始财报季了。众所周知，宏观数据和财报联系十分紧密。比较熟悉的例子就是二手车价格和汽车板块股价表现之间的联系。所以PMI数据这么差，我很为财报季捏把汗。所以问题就来了，周四是即将公布12月CPI，预测年率是6.5%，通胀进一步明显下降。那么市场肯定会提前price in利好，前半周上涨。而数据落地后极大概率就是回调，除非进一步低于预期，否则大盘也就止步于此了。本周是不是财报季前的最后狂欢呢？从期权异动来看，本周主要财报是银行股和<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">$台积电(TSM)$</a> ，风格偏向sell call 和平价put。平价put可以理解，但个人认为sell call可以等财报后再做考虑。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSM%2020230317%2080.0%20CALL\">$TSM 20230317 80.0 CALL$</a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/C%2020230203%2047.0%20PUT\">$C 20230203 47.0 PUT$</a>","listText":"周五大涨非农数据起到的作用很小，解读上模棱两可，甚至偏鹰，但也在预期之中，因为早有预期就业数据下降速度不会很快。开盘后带动大涨的主要因素还是ISM制造业PMI爆冷，录得48.4，大大低于预期，创造2020年5月以来新低。实锤了经济衰退，市场一片欢呼，感觉有了倒逼美联储降息的空间。在我看来这就是进ICU前的蹦迪，因为这周就开始财报季了。众所周知，宏观数据和财报联系十分紧密。比较熟悉的例子就是二手车价格和汽车板块股价表现之间的联系。所以PMI数据这么差，我很为财报季捏把汗。所以问题就来了，周四是即将公布12月CPI，预测年率是6.5%，通胀进一步明显下降。那么市场肯定会提前price in利好，前半周上涨。而数据落地后极大概率就是回调，除非进一步低于预期，否则大盘也就止步于此了。本周是不是财报季前的最后狂欢呢？从期权异动来看，本周主要财报是银行股和<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">$台积电(TSM)$</a> ，风格偏向sell call 和平价put。平价put可以理解，但个人认为sell call可以等财报后再做考虑。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSM%2020230317%2080.0%20CALL\">$TSM 20230317 80.0 CALL$</a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/C%2020230203%2047.0%20PUT\">$C 20230203 47.0 PUT$</a>","text":"周五大涨非农数据起到的作用很小，解读上模棱两可，甚至偏鹰，但也在预期之中，因为早有预期就业数据下降速度不会很快。开盘后带动大涨的主要因素还是ISM制造业PMI爆冷，录得48.4，大大低于预期，创造2020年5月以来新低。实锤了经济衰退，市场一片欢呼，感觉有了倒逼美联储降息的空间。在我看来这就是进ICU前的蹦迪，因为这周就开始财报季了。众所周知，宏观数据和财报联系十分紧密。比较熟悉的例子就是二手车价格和汽车板块股价表现之间的联系。所以PMI数据这么差，我很为财报季捏把汗。所以问题就来了，周四是即将公布12月CPI，预测年率是6.5%，通胀进一步明显下降。那么市场肯定会提前price in利好，前半周上涨。而数据落地后极大概率就是回调，除非进一步低于预期，否则大盘也就止步于此了。本周是不是财报季前的最后狂欢呢？从期权异动来看，本周主要财报是银行股和$台积电(TSM)$ ，风格偏向sell call 和平价put。平价put可以理解，但个人认为sell call可以等财报后再做考虑。$TSM 20230317 80.0 CALL$$C 20230203 47.0 PUT$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac31a623b5dd4f8e9382259829b6d6e8","width":"1170","height":"953"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f5b68905b3f46db7bbab4b2063abd0d","width":"2562","height":"96"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbfdbbac73cdc19c5032fd9bfa94ddeb","width":"2596","height":"590"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/628223856","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3958,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":626613975,"gmtCreate":1674099061197,"gmtModify":1674099062989,"author":{"id":"3579840132432347","authorId":"3579840132432347","name":"smartzhang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4641e31d220127619216e66c3e4ec7ae","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579840132432347","idStr":"3579840132432347"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/626613975","repostId":"628793143","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":628793143,"gmtCreate":1673455428382,"gmtModify":1673455720558,"author":{"id":"3527667590215376","authorId":"3527667590215376","name":"期权小班长","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e785bea87af8baf08d2b24111b78c16a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667590215376","idStr":"3527667590215376"},"themes":[],"title":"比CPI更有悬念的是美联储的态度","htmlText":"周四CPI有90%的概率数据表现低于预期，市场给出平均预期6.5%，降幅显著，其他分析师给出的预期数据甚至更低。更低的数据有助于当天打开上涨空间，不过我倾向认为是短爆发，因为马上下周财报季要面对真实的盈利下滑了。根据彭博预测：整体CPI环比下降0.2%(前值为0.1%)，同比增长6.3%(前值为7.1%)。核心CPI环比增长0.2%，与11月持平，同比增长5.6%，而前值为6.0%。经季节性因素调整后，能源价格下跌可能导致月度整体数据下降0.5个百分点。汽油价格经季节性因素调整后下跌9.8%，其中中国需求下降是主要原因。异常温暖的冬天也导致了家庭公用事业价格的下降。核心商品领域的通缩继续加剧。由于消费者控制需求，家具、服装、玩具和娱乐用品等多个商品行业库存过剩。新车和二手车的价格在12月份都可能出现下跌。供应和生产的改善帮助提振了汽车库存。随着贷款利率攀升，需求已经降温。到2023年上半年末，企业将完成过剩库存的去库存，达到与需求下降更为平衡的水平，此后商品类别对通货紧缩的推动作用将减弱。按月计算，住房通胀可能已经见顶。主要居民租金和业主等效租金的同比增长一直持续到春末。除住房以外的核心服务——美联储主席鲍威尔指出，这是一个需要观察持久通货紧缩迹象的类别——可能正在横向下滑。不过，最新的ISM服务报告显示，12月服务需求的前瞻性部分大幅下降，因此这一类别在未来几个月可能会放缓是合理的。衰退不是利好，衰退逼迫美联储停止加息才是利好，可以说美联储的态度决定了市场的两种走势。这几天土耳其股市暴雷，原因是12月底土耳其央行决定暂停降息。没错，在全世界都在试图靠加息或其他方法压低通胀的去年，土耳其8月份做了一个大胆的决定：开始降息。于是土耳其指数成为了2022年表现最好的指数，土耳其etf<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TUR\">$土耳其ETF-iShar</a>","listText":"周四CPI有90%的概率数据表现低于预期，市场给出平均预期6.5%，降幅显著，其他分析师给出的预期数据甚至更低。更低的数据有助于当天打开上涨空间，不过我倾向认为是短爆发，因为马上下周财报季要面对真实的盈利下滑了。根据彭博预测：整体CPI环比下降0.2%(前值为0.1%)，同比增长6.3%(前值为7.1%)。核心CPI环比增长0.2%，与11月持平，同比增长5.6%，而前值为6.0%。经季节性因素调整后，能源价格下跌可能导致月度整体数据下降0.5个百分点。汽油价格经季节性因素调整后下跌9.8%，其中中国需求下降是主要原因。异常温暖的冬天也导致了家庭公用事业价格的下降。核心商品领域的通缩继续加剧。由于消费者控制需求，家具、服装、玩具和娱乐用品等多个商品行业库存过剩。新车和二手车的价格在12月份都可能出现下跌。供应和生产的改善帮助提振了汽车库存。随着贷款利率攀升，需求已经降温。到2023年上半年末，企业将完成过剩库存的去库存，达到与需求下降更为平衡的水平，此后商品类别对通货紧缩的推动作用将减弱。按月计算，住房通胀可能已经见顶。主要居民租金和业主等效租金的同比增长一直持续到春末。除住房以外的核心服务——美联储主席鲍威尔指出，这是一个需要观察持久通货紧缩迹象的类别——可能正在横向下滑。不过，最新的ISM服务报告显示，12月服务需求的前瞻性部分大幅下降，因此这一类别在未来几个月可能会放缓是合理的。衰退不是利好，衰退逼迫美联储停止加息才是利好，可以说美联储的态度决定了市场的两种走势。这几天土耳其股市暴雷，原因是12月底土耳其央行决定暂停降息。没错，在全世界都在试图靠加息或其他方法压低通胀的去年，土耳其8月份做了一个大胆的决定：开始降息。于是土耳其指数成为了2022年表现最好的指数，土耳其etf<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TUR\">$土耳其ETF-iShar</a>","text":"周四CPI有90%的概率数据表现低于预期，市场给出平均预期6.5%，降幅显著，其他分析师给出的预期数据甚至更低。更低的数据有助于当天打开上涨空间，不过我倾向认为是短爆发，因为马上下周财报季要面对真实的盈利下滑了。根据彭博预测：整体CPI环比下降0.2%(前值为0.1%)，同比增长6.3%(前值为7.1%)。核心CPI环比增长0.2%，与11月持平，同比增长5.6%，而前值为6.0%。经季节性因素调整后，能源价格下跌可能导致月度整体数据下降0.5个百分点。汽油价格经季节性因素调整后下跌9.8%，其中中国需求下降是主要原因。异常温暖的冬天也导致了家庭公用事业价格的下降。核心商品领域的通缩继续加剧。由于消费者控制需求，家具、服装、玩具和娱乐用品等多个商品行业库存过剩。新车和二手车的价格在12月份都可能出现下跌。供应和生产的改善帮助提振了汽车库存。随着贷款利率攀升，需求已经降温。到2023年上半年末，企业将完成过剩库存的去库存，达到与需求下降更为平衡的水平，此后商品类别对通货紧缩的推动作用将减弱。按月计算，住房通胀可能已经见顶。主要居民租金和业主等效租金的同比增长一直持续到春末。除住房以外的核心服务——美联储主席鲍威尔指出，这是一个需要观察持久通货紧缩迹象的类别——可能正在横向下滑。不过，最新的ISM服务报告显示，12月服务需求的前瞻性部分大幅下降，因此这一类别在未来几个月可能会放缓是合理的。衰退不是利好，衰退逼迫美联储停止加息才是利好，可以说美联储的态度决定了市场的两种走势。这几天土耳其股市暴雷，原因是12月底土耳其央行决定暂停降息。没错，在全世界都在试图靠加息或其他方法压低通胀的去年，土耳其8月份做了一个大胆的决定：开始降息。于是土耳其指数成为了2022年表现最好的指数，土耳其etf$土耳其ETF-iShar","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2c301eb9c3793a602d3341eb9c3b2dd","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4cdaf629b8b49ee868b9ca7d4f26f6f","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0e96e509defdf5b4bd22c3f83f6ee7e","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/628793143","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4127,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":626619740,"gmtCreate":1674098996080,"gmtModify":1674099545908,"author":{"id":"3579840132432347","authorId":"3579840132432347","name":"smartzhang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4641e31d220127619216e66c3e4ec7ae","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579840132432347","idStr":"3579840132432347"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02318\">$中国平安(02318)$ </a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02318\">$中国平安(02318)$ </a>","text":"$中国平安(02318)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2dcb9cf33c84a94d24b6d8bdb5146f8a","width":"1080","height":"1691"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/626619740","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2698,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":626619568,"gmtCreate":1674098931454,"gmtModify":1674099541903,"author":{"id":"3579840132432347","authorId":"3579840132432347","name":"smartzhang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4641e31d220127619216e66c3e4ec7ae","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579840132432347","idStr":"3579840132432347"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00941\">$中国移动(00941)$ </a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00941\">$中国移动(00941)$ </a>","text":"$中国移动(00941)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4455ce8d342780faa4fc49e7deb37ec1","width":"1080","height":"1691"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/626619568","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2366,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":626064669,"gmtCreate":1673579406752,"gmtModify":1673579407565,"author":{"id":"3579840132432347","authorId":"3579840132432347","name":"smartzhang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4641e31d220127619216e66c3e4ec7ae","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579840132432347","idStr":"3579840132432347"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$小米集团-W(01810)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/626064669","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1083,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":628484046,"gmtCreate":1673418117285,"gmtModify":1673418118129,"author":{"id":"3579840132432347","authorId":"3579840132432347","name":"smartzhang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4641e31d220127619216e66c3e4ec7ae","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579840132432347","idStr":"3579840132432347"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$小米集团-W(01810)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/628484046","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":810,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":628072839,"gmtCreate":1672801261821,"gmtModify":1672801263621,"author":{"id":"3579840132432347","authorId":"3579840132432347","name":"smartzhang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4641e31d220127619216e66c3e4ec7ae","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579840132432347","idStr":"3579840132432347"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/628072839","repostId":"621377456","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":621377456,"gmtCreate":1672054719976,"gmtModify":1672054803604,"author":{"id":"3514329116425907","authorId":"3514329116425907","name":"小虎AV","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/162e12f8dcec770ec19f66f2abb0d5db","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3514329116425907","idStr":"3514329116425907"},"themes":[],"title":"刘强东痛批京东中高层拿PPT欺骗自己：用假大空那套忽悠我","htmlText":"\n \n \n 12月26日，据虎嗅报道，刘强东在近日京东内部管理培训会上痛批部分高管，称“拿PPT和假大空词汇忽悠自己的人就是骗子”，表示部分高管醉心于PPT和奇妙词汇，或吹得天花乱坠但是执行一塌糊涂。此次会议上，刘强东还表示，管理层不需要那么多花的、新词，要回归到商业本质的五个要素（产品，价格，服务，成本，效率）。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">$京东(JD)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">$京东集团-SW(09618)$</a>\n \n","listText":"12月26日，据虎嗅报道，刘强东在近日京东内部管理培训会上痛批部分高管，称“拿PPT和假大空词汇忽悠自己的人就是骗子”，表示部分高管醉心于PPT和奇妙词汇，或吹得天花乱坠但是执行一塌糊涂。此次会议上，刘强东还表示，管理层不需要那么多花的、新词，要回归到商业本质的五个要素（产品，价格，服务，成本，效率）。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">$京东(JD)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">$京东集团-SW(09618)$</a>","text":"12月26日，据虎嗅报道，刘强东在近日京东内部管理培训会上痛批部分高管，称“拿PPT和假大空词汇忽悠自己的人就是骗子”，表示部分高管醉心于PPT和奇妙词汇，或吹得天花乱坠但是执行一塌糊涂。此次会议上，刘强东还表示，管理层不需要那么多花的、新词，要回归到商业本质的五个要素（产品，价格，服务，成本，效率）。$京东(JD)$ $京东集团-SW(09618)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/621377456","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"6667eb2b29cd45958ca56bc287286bd7","tweetId":"621377456","videoUrl":"https://1254107296.vod2.myqcloud.com/73ba5544vodgzp1254107296/620aa539243791577785410068/mkpSIItiXjcA.mp4","poster":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/720ca6c12cc44c3f35893df6fe778b49"},"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5172,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":628072925,"gmtCreate":1672801249067,"gmtModify":1672801251209,"author":{"id":"3579840132432347","authorId":"3579840132432347","name":"smartzhang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4641e31d220127619216e66c3e4ec7ae","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579840132432347","idStr":"3579840132432347"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/628072925","repostId":"621833963","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":621833963,"gmtCreate":1672152349352,"gmtModify":1672152369057,"author":{"id":"3527667590215376","authorId":"3527667590215376","name":"期权小班长","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e785bea87af8baf08d2b24111b78c16a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667590215376","idStr":"3527667590215376"},"themes":[],"title":"特斯拉会跌到哪儿？一些大单线索","htmlText":"目前特斯拉的腹泻式下跌给我整不会了。虽然从CPI来看二手车和新车市场需要进一步向19年行情靠拢，股价会向2020年3月靠拢，但特斯拉的回调速度还是在各方面原因作用下出乎预料，尤其是在圣诞季。今天继续从期权大单里寻找市场对于特斯拉的预期支撑点位。我用的是老虎pc端的期权筛选，功能比手机多一些，比如可以按照时间顺序排列，手机上是按成交量排列的。大单筛选排除远期（2023年6月以后），因为远期代表可以无视一段时间内的价值衰减，利用价外行权价上更大的杠杆，对于近期目标价是干扰；以及排除深度价内套利大单，行权价非常离谱，也没有目标价的指导意义。近期到期开仓期权就是一个很好的筛选目标了。以下几张期权本周可以关注交易者是否平仓。那么从时间排序来看，临近收盘时买入的近期看跌期权就很有参考价值，比如<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA%2020230317%20125.0%20PUT\">$TSLA%2020230317%20125.0%20PUT$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20230317 125.0 PUT\">$TSLA 20230317 125.0 PUT$ </a> ，属于保守型明确近期看跌，选择平价行权价，从行权日期的时间损耗估算看跌周期，基本上本周还是看跌状态。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA%2020230120%20105.0%20PUT\"></a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20230120 105.0 PUT\">$TSLA 20230120 105.0 PUT$ </a> 行权日不足30天","listText":"目前特斯拉的腹泻式下跌给我整不会了。虽然从CPI来看二手车和新车市场需要进一步向19年行情靠拢，股价会向2020年3月靠拢，但特斯拉的回调速度还是在各方面原因作用下出乎预料，尤其是在圣诞季。今天继续从期权大单里寻找市场对于特斯拉的预期支撑点位。我用的是老虎pc端的期权筛选，功能比手机多一些，比如可以按照时间顺序排列，手机上是按成交量排列的。大单筛选排除远期（2023年6月以后），因为远期代表可以无视一段时间内的价值衰减，利用价外行权价上更大的杠杆，对于近期目标价是干扰；以及排除深度价内套利大单，行权价非常离谱，也没有目标价的指导意义。近期到期开仓期权就是一个很好的筛选目标了。以下几张期权本周可以关注交易者是否平仓。那么从时间排序来看，临近收盘时买入的近期看跌期权就很有参考价值，比如<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA%2020230317%20125.0%20PUT\">$TSLA%2020230317%20125.0%20PUT$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20230317 125.0 PUT\">$TSLA 20230317 125.0 PUT$ </a> ，属于保守型明确近期看跌，选择平价行权价，从行权日期的时间损耗估算看跌周期，基本上本周还是看跌状态。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA%2020230120%20105.0%20PUT\"></a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20230120 105.0 PUT\">$TSLA 20230120 105.0 PUT$ </a> 行权日不足30天","text":"目前特斯拉的腹泻式下跌给我整不会了。虽然从CPI来看二手车和新车市场需要进一步向19年行情靠拢，股价会向2020年3月靠拢，但特斯拉的回调速度还是在各方面原因作用下出乎预料，尤其是在圣诞季。今天继续从期权大单里寻找市场对于特斯拉的预期支撑点位。我用的是老虎pc端的期权筛选，功能比手机多一些，比如可以按照时间顺序排列，手机上是按成交量排列的。大单筛选排除远期（2023年6月以后），因为远期代表可以无视一段时间内的价值衰减，利用价外行权价上更大的杠杆，对于近期目标价是干扰；以及排除深度价内套利大单，行权价非常离谱，也没有目标价的指导意义。近期到期开仓期权就是一个很好的筛选目标了。以下几张期权本周可以关注交易者是否平仓。那么从时间排序来看，临近收盘时买入的近期看跌期权就很有参考价值，比如$TSLA%2020230317%20125.0%20PUT$ $TSLA 20230317 125.0 PUT$ ，属于保守型明确近期看跌，选择平价行权价，从行权日期的时间损耗估算看跌周期，基本上本周还是看跌状态。$TSLA 20230120 105.0 PUT$ 行权日不足30天","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94e61312b3c06bb447399af5d9ff043d","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81fd6eaca94c068d345de91db066cb3c","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cec7db435acbdbc8a95ffac737ba5a4","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/621833963","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2923,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":628076769,"gmtCreate":1672801235952,"gmtModify":1672801238354,"author":{"id":"3579840132432347","authorId":"3579840132432347","name":"smartzhang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4641e31d220127619216e66c3e4ec7ae","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579840132432347","idStr":"3579840132432347"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/628076769","repostId":"621673291","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":621673291,"gmtCreate":1672285519414,"gmtModify":1744960875363,"author":{"id":"4093504281887960","authorId":"4093504281887960","name":"芝士虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f3a05d038882153678ee817929431fc","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093504281887960","idStr":"4093504281887960"},"themes":[],"title":"老虎独家｜大浪淘沙始见金--2023年全球大类资产展望","htmlText":"回顾2022年的资本市场，可谓泥石俱下，万念俱灰；展望2023年，大洋西岸的通胀已过峰值，欧亚大陆的寒冬正在散去，国内防疫全面优化；「杨过」已去，「杨康」归来；2023年是癸卯水兔年，风水学上又称为「替代年」，这一年，「幸运」将替代「水逆」，「花明」将替代「柳暗」；2023 年行情该如何演绎？资产又该如何配置？投资市场会不会深蹲起跳，力挽狂澜呢？老虎国际投研团队在今天，为你呈上这份 2023 年度全球大类投资展望，全面解析 2023 如何做好投资。*全文分三部分，共计7700+字，阅读需10分钟。一：2022 年资产表现与投资主线回顾2022 年最悲惨的事不外乎「核酸」阳了，「账户」绿了；但不用难过，这一年大多数人的账户都绿了。据老虎国际投研团队统计，截至 2022 年 11 月 30 日，全球 53 个国家和地区，包括股票、债券、大宗商品、房地产、货币和另类投资，共六大类 287 小类资产标的，在 2022 年的平均收益仅为 -10.24%。其中，只有 53 个资产在今年获得了正收益，占比不足 20%。来源：彭博「泥沙俱下」似乎不足以形容2022年资本市场的惨状。说好的「招财进虎」，说好的「如虎添亿」呢？为什么市场不按照剧本走呢？因为2022年发生了两件你我都意想不到的大事:1、通胀高居不下，美联储超预期紧缩让我们把时间拉回到 2022 年年初，在这个时间，恐怕再鹰派的研究员也无法预测出，美联储全年的加息幅度会高达425个基点(假设12月FOMC会议如预期加息0.5%)。因为哪怕是在金融危机的时候，能预测美联储一次加息25个基点，年内加息9次，直接干到长期中性利率2.5%的研究员，都会被大家看做是哗众取宠的疯子。然而，美联储的铁血加息政策以及降低通胀的决心，把华尔街的精英们按在地上狠狠摩擦。毕竟，在过去十余年中，绝大多数人已经习惯了低利率低通胀的环境；一旦美联储超预期大幅","listText":"回顾2022年的资本市场，可谓泥石俱下，万念俱灰；展望2023年，大洋西岸的通胀已过峰值，欧亚大陆的寒冬正在散去，国内防疫全面优化；「杨过」已去，「杨康」归来；2023年是癸卯水兔年，风水学上又称为「替代年」，这一年，「幸运」将替代「水逆」，「花明」将替代「柳暗」；2023 年行情该如何演绎？资产又该如何配置？投资市场会不会深蹲起跳，力挽狂澜呢？老虎国际投研团队在今天，为你呈上这份 2023 年度全球大类投资展望，全面解析 2023 如何做好投资。*全文分三部分，共计7700+字，阅读需10分钟。一：2022 年资产表现与投资主线回顾2022 年最悲惨的事不外乎「核酸」阳了，「账户」绿了；但不用难过，这一年大多数人的账户都绿了。据老虎国际投研团队统计，截至 2022 年 11 月 30 日，全球 53 个国家和地区，包括股票、债券、大宗商品、房地产、货币和另类投资，共六大类 287 小类资产标的，在 2022 年的平均收益仅为 -10.24%。其中，只有 53 个资产在今年获得了正收益，占比不足 20%。来源：彭博「泥沙俱下」似乎不足以形容2022年资本市场的惨状。说好的「招财进虎」，说好的「如虎添亿」呢？为什么市场不按照剧本走呢？因为2022年发生了两件你我都意想不到的大事:1、通胀高居不下，美联储超预期紧缩让我们把时间拉回到 2022 年年初，在这个时间，恐怕再鹰派的研究员也无法预测出，美联储全年的加息幅度会高达425个基点(假设12月FOMC会议如预期加息0.5%)。因为哪怕是在金融危机的时候，能预测美联储一次加息25个基点，年内加息9次，直接干到长期中性利率2.5%的研究员，都会被大家看做是哗众取宠的疯子。然而，美联储的铁血加息政策以及降低通胀的决心，把华尔街的精英们按在地上狠狠摩擦。毕竟，在过去十余年中，绝大多数人已经习惯了低利率低通胀的环境；一旦美联储超预期大幅","text":"回顾2022年的资本市场，可谓泥石俱下，万念俱灰；展望2023年，大洋西岸的通胀已过峰值，欧亚大陆的寒冬正在散去，国内防疫全面优化；「杨过」已去，「杨康」归来；2023年是癸卯水兔年，风水学上又称为「替代年」，这一年，「幸运」将替代「水逆」，「花明」将替代「柳暗」；2023 年行情该如何演绎？资产又该如何配置？投资市场会不会深蹲起跳，力挽狂澜呢？老虎国际投研团队在今天，为你呈上这份 2023 年度全球大类投资展望，全面解析 2023 如何做好投资。*全文分三部分，共计7700+字，阅读需10分钟。一：2022 年资产表现与投资主线回顾2022 年最悲惨的事不外乎「核酸」阳了，「账户」绿了；但不用难过，这一年大多数人的账户都绿了。据老虎国际投研团队统计，截至 2022 年 11 月 30 日，全球 53 个国家和地区，包括股票、债券、大宗商品、房地产、货币和另类投资，共六大类 287 小类资产标的，在 2022 年的平均收益仅为 -10.24%。其中，只有 53 个资产在今年获得了正收益，占比不足 20%。来源：彭博「泥沙俱下」似乎不足以形容2022年资本市场的惨状。说好的「招财进虎」，说好的「如虎添亿」呢？为什么市场不按照剧本走呢？因为2022年发生了两件你我都意想不到的大事:1、通胀高居不下，美联储超预期紧缩让我们把时间拉回到 2022 年年初，在这个时间，恐怕再鹰派的研究员也无法预测出，美联储全年的加息幅度会高达425个基点(假设12月FOMC会议如预期加息0.5%)。因为哪怕是在金融危机的时候，能预测美联储一次加息25个基点，年内加息9次，直接干到长期中性利率2.5%的研究员，都会被大家看做是哗众取宠的疯子。然而，美联储的铁血加息政策以及降低通胀的决心，把华尔街的精英们按在地上狠狠摩擦。毕竟，在过去十余年中，绝大多数人已经习惯了低利率低通胀的环境；一旦美联储超预期大幅","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddf449d36bc4777042728dbe961c45f3","width":"1262","height":"609"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61ce9af22ae4a92dd181b9e08c095c2c","width":"767","height":"358"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42452d06ccca560ab6d06d7d21d52987","width":"1216","height":"456"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/621673291","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":1,"subType":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":28,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1673,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":621868769,"gmtCreate":1672191511851,"gmtModify":1672191513491,"author":{"id":"3579840132432347","authorId":"3579840132432347","name":"smartzhang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4641e31d220127619216e66c3e4ec7ae","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579840132432347","idStr":"3579840132432347"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/621868769","repostId":"623542242","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":623542242,"gmtCreate":1671549804787,"gmtModify":1671549805680,"author":{"id":"43898359627567","authorId":"43898359627567","name":"Malison","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed4752e07c0662570d740a149accea3f","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"43898359627567","idStr":"43898359627567"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ </a>马斯克这是要把投资者把股东彻底伤透的节奏，让人失望的公司领导","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ </a>马斯克这是要把投资者把股东彻底伤透的节奏，让人失望的公司领导","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ 马斯克这是要把投资者把股东彻底伤透的节奏，让人失望的公司领导","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/623542242","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2033,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":621868511,"gmtCreate":1672191500434,"gmtModify":1672191502085,"author":{"id":"3579840132432347","authorId":"3579840132432347","name":"smartzhang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4641e31d220127619216e66c3e4ec7ae","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579840132432347","idStr":"3579840132432347"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/621868511","repostId":"623739103","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":623739103,"gmtCreate":1671670334802,"gmtModify":1671672129775,"author":{"id":"3494295154959832","authorId":"3494295154959832","name":"FinMelon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eef68a536f68680437ea6627d1d64b6e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3494295154959832","idStr":"3494295154959832"},"themes":[],"title":"布洛芬供不应求 天大药业宣布扩产提速保供","htmlText":"自国家疫情防控放开，”新十条”中「不得限制群众线上线下购买药物」发布后，全国民众掀起了「囤药热潮」，线下线上的退烧药、止咳药、感冒药存量纷纷“告急”。截至目前，布洛芬等产品的市场供应依旧非常紧张。 布洛芬作为家庭药箱中常见药品，在当前的关注度已经无可比拟。为了进一步缓解布洛芬在国内的供应紧张状态，已经有越来越多的公司加入了紧急生产布洛芬的行列。12月19日，港股上市公司<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00455\">$天大药业(00455)$</a> 发布公告，公司正积极配合国家新十条优化防疫政策要求，全力生产布洛芬等市场急需药品，全力保障市场供应。另外，公司决定提速扩大珠海基地产能，新建液体车间生产线，力争在最短时间内完成，以满足旗下产品包括布洛芬混悬液、美敏伪麻、液体制剂CDMO项目的生产，并将小儿清热止咳颗粒的生产外包，扩大产量。 天大药业一直深耕心脑血管及儿科等疾病领域用药，拥有独特的仿制药产品管线。旗下核心儿科用药品牌托恩®布洛芬混悬液的市场份额常年位列国内前三。托恩®布洛芬混悬液╱混悬滴剂作为非类固醇类的儿童退热止痛药，受到儿科用药市场的广泛好评，根据今年中期业绩显示，托恩产品销售额达6400万港元，同比增长近70%。随着本轮疫情防控的全面放开，市场用药需求急剧攀升，相信托恩产品销量将会大幅增长，公司业绩也有望迎来快速增长，托恩产品在儿科退热止痛用药领域的龙头地位也将进一步确立。另外，公司在去年3月份收购的小儿清热止咳颗粒也将在此轮疫情中发挥重要作用。小儿清热止咳颗粒作为中成药和托恩互为补充，中西结合的治疗方式也将更好地帮助儿童患者应对疫情。 作为一家积极肩负社会责任的企业，天大药业在公告中进一步表示，会将旗下中医馆连锁「天大馆」的中医药系列服务投入支援内地疫情居家防控，通过「云上天大馆」，推出","listText":"自国家疫情防控放开，”新十条”中「不得限制群众线上线下购买药物」发布后，全国民众掀起了「囤药热潮」，线下线上的退烧药、止咳药、感冒药存量纷纷“告急”。截至目前，布洛芬等产品的市场供应依旧非常紧张。 布洛芬作为家庭药箱中常见药品，在当前的关注度已经无可比拟。为了进一步缓解布洛芬在国内的供应紧张状态，已经有越来越多的公司加入了紧急生产布洛芬的行列。12月19日，港股上市公司<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00455\">$天大药业(00455)$</a> 发布公告，公司正积极配合国家新十条优化防疫政策要求，全力生产布洛芬等市场急需药品，全力保障市场供应。另外，公司决定提速扩大珠海基地产能，新建液体车间生产线，力争在最短时间内完成，以满足旗下产品包括布洛芬混悬液、美敏伪麻、液体制剂CDMO项目的生产，并将小儿清热止咳颗粒的生产外包，扩大产量。 天大药业一直深耕心脑血管及儿科等疾病领域用药，拥有独特的仿制药产品管线。旗下核心儿科用药品牌托恩®布洛芬混悬液的市场份额常年位列国内前三。托恩®布洛芬混悬液╱混悬滴剂作为非类固醇类的儿童退热止痛药，受到儿科用药市场的广泛好评，根据今年中期业绩显示，托恩产品销售额达6400万港元，同比增长近70%。随着本轮疫情防控的全面放开，市场用药需求急剧攀升，相信托恩产品销量将会大幅增长，公司业绩也有望迎来快速增长，托恩产品在儿科退热止痛用药领域的龙头地位也将进一步确立。另外，公司在去年3月份收购的小儿清热止咳颗粒也将在此轮疫情中发挥重要作用。小儿清热止咳颗粒作为中成药和托恩互为补充，中西结合的治疗方式也将更好地帮助儿童患者应对疫情。 作为一家积极肩负社会责任的企业，天大药业在公告中进一步表示，会将旗下中医馆连锁「天大馆」的中医药系列服务投入支援内地疫情居家防控，通过「云上天大馆」，推出","text":"自国家疫情防控放开，”新十条”中「不得限制群众线上线下购买药物」发布后，全国民众掀起了「囤药热潮」，线下线上的退烧药、止咳药、感冒药存量纷纷“告急”。截至目前，布洛芬等产品的市场供应依旧非常紧张。 布洛芬作为家庭药箱中常见药品，在当前的关注度已经无可比拟。为了进一步缓解布洛芬在国内的供应紧张状态，已经有越来越多的公司加入了紧急生产布洛芬的行列。12月19日，港股上市公司$天大药业(00455)$ 发布公告，公司正积极配合国家新十条优化防疫政策要求，全力生产布洛芬等市场急需药品，全力保障市场供应。另外，公司决定提速扩大珠海基地产能，新建液体车间生产线，力争在最短时间内完成，以满足旗下产品包括布洛芬混悬液、美敏伪麻、液体制剂CDMO项目的生产，并将小儿清热止咳颗粒的生产外包，扩大产量。 天大药业一直深耕心脑血管及儿科等疾病领域用药，拥有独特的仿制药产品管线。旗下核心儿科用药品牌托恩®布洛芬混悬液的市场份额常年位列国内前三。托恩®布洛芬混悬液╱混悬滴剂作为非类固醇类的儿童退热止痛药，受到儿科用药市场的广泛好评，根据今年中期业绩显示，托恩产品销售额达6400万港元，同比增长近70%。随着本轮疫情防控的全面放开，市场用药需求急剧攀升，相信托恩产品销量将会大幅增长，公司业绩也有望迎来快速增长，托恩产品在儿科退热止痛用药领域的龙头地位也将进一步确立。另外，公司在去年3月份收购的小儿清热止咳颗粒也将在此轮疫情中发挥重要作用。小儿清热止咳颗粒作为中成药和托恩互为补充，中西结合的治疗方式也将更好地帮助儿童患者应对疫情。 作为一家积极肩负社会责任的企业，天大药业在公告中进一步表示，会将旗下中医馆连锁「天大馆」的中医药系列服务投入支援内地疫情居家防控，通过「云上天大馆」，推出","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4a6ac1cab483494620f3e3723392671","width":"632","height":"305"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/623739103","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1858,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":621868215,"gmtCreate":1672191490537,"gmtModify":1672191492154,"author":{"id":"3579840132432347","authorId":"3579840132432347","name":"smartzhang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4641e31d220127619216e66c3e4ec7ae","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579840132432347","idStr":"3579840132432347"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/621868215","repostId":"623259077","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":623259077,"gmtCreate":1671461024099,"gmtModify":1671461044275,"author":{"id":"3527667590215376","authorId":"3527667590215376","name":"期权小班长","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e785bea87af8baf08d2b24111b78c16a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667590215376","idStr":"3527667590215376"},"themes":[],"title":"我一回来就发现，散户指标又破位了","htmlText":"上周阳了，没有多余精力看盘，但周末得闲看了看，三大指数走势并不意外，美联储鹰派发言后如期回调。比较令我意外的是之前被当作散户逃跑指数的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$游戏驿站(GME)$</a> 也走出了破位趋势，有些类似8月中的走势，可见这次回调下方的支撑并不是那么稳固：目前就是典型的震荡下行趋势：涨不上去，前高是别想摸了，但也跌的不怎么痛快。所以和震荡上行趋势完全相反，这种趋势最适合的策略就是sell call。sell call行权价选择的要点就是找到一个反复冲击都无法到达的前高，拿<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KWEB\">$中国海外互联网ETF-KraneShares(KWEB)$</a> 来举例比如年初的36就是一个难以逾越的高点，年中股价曾反复几次冲击34失败，所以36是一个相对安全的sell call选择<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/KWEB%2020230120%2036.0%20CALL\">$KWEB%2020230120%2036.0%20CALL$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/KWEB 20230120 36.0 CALL\">$KWEB 20230120 36.0 CALL$ </a>对于震荡下行可能有人会第一时间想到买put。不过就跟震荡上行买call一样，震荡下行买put同样面临着时间价值损耗，建议搭配sell put做价差策略更合适。或者对于想要接盘的股票来说，等待回调也是不错的选择。比如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TLT\">$债券20+美公债指数ETF-iShares(TLT)$</a>","listText":"上周阳了，没有多余精力看盘，但周末得闲看了看，三大指数走势并不意外，美联储鹰派发言后如期回调。比较令我意外的是之前被当作散户逃跑指数的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$游戏驿站(GME)$</a> 也走出了破位趋势，有些类似8月中的走势，可见这次回调下方的支撑并不是那么稳固：目前就是典型的震荡下行趋势：涨不上去，前高是别想摸了，但也跌的不怎么痛快。所以和震荡上行趋势完全相反，这种趋势最适合的策略就是sell call。sell call行权价选择的要点就是找到一个反复冲击都无法到达的前高，拿<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KWEB\">$中国海外互联网ETF-KraneShares(KWEB)$</a> 来举例比如年初的36就是一个难以逾越的高点，年中股价曾反复几次冲击34失败，所以36是一个相对安全的sell call选择<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/KWEB%2020230120%2036.0%20CALL\">$KWEB%2020230120%2036.0%20CALL$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/KWEB 20230120 36.0 CALL\">$KWEB 20230120 36.0 CALL$ </a>对于震荡下行可能有人会第一时间想到买put。不过就跟震荡上行买call一样，震荡下行买put同样面临着时间价值损耗，建议搭配sell put做价差策略更合适。或者对于想要接盘的股票来说，等待回调也是不错的选择。比如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TLT\">$债券20+美公债指数ETF-iShares(TLT)$</a>","text":"上周阳了，没有多余精力看盘，但周末得闲看了看，三大指数走势并不意外，美联储鹰派发言后如期回调。比较令我意外的是之前被当作散户逃跑指数的$游戏驿站(GME)$ 也走出了破位趋势，有些类似8月中的走势，可见这次回调下方的支撑并不是那么稳固：目前就是典型的震荡下行趋势：涨不上去，前高是别想摸了，但也跌的不怎么痛快。所以和震荡上行趋势完全相反，这种趋势最适合的策略就是sell call。sell call行权价选择的要点就是找到一个反复冲击都无法到达的前高，拿$中国海外互联网ETF-KraneShares(KWEB)$ 来举例比如年初的36就是一个难以逾越的高点，年中股价曾反复几次冲击34失败，所以36是一个相对安全的sell call选择$KWEB%2020230120%2036.0%20CALL$ $KWEB 20230120 36.0 CALL$ 对于震荡下行可能有人会第一时间想到买put。不过就跟震荡上行买call一样，震荡下行买put同样面临着时间价值损耗，建议搭配sell put做价差策略更合适。或者对于想要接盘的股票来说，等待回调也是不错的选择。比如$债券20+美公债指数ETF-iShares(TLT)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1271e2c5d030e487b090a3c192e386a","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/939ff31094be877fca75843b29b06f67","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63dab689bc8b73c2ffd783dd12ce4b8a","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/623259077","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2387,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":623715345,"gmtCreate":1671677948088,"gmtModify":1671677950084,"author":{"id":"3579840132432347","authorId":"3579840132432347","name":"smartzhang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4641e31d220127619216e66c3e4ec7ae","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579840132432347","idStr":"3579840132432347"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/623715345","repostId":"623542242","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":623542242,"gmtCreate":1671549804787,"gmtModify":1671549805680,"author":{"id":"43898359627567","authorId":"43898359627567","name":"Malison","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed4752e07c0662570d740a149accea3f","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"43898359627567","idStr":"43898359627567"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ </a>马斯克这是要把投资者把股东彻底伤透的节奏，让人失望的公司领导","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ </a>马斯克这是要把投资者把股东彻底伤透的节奏，让人失望的公司领导","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ 马斯克这是要把投资者把股东彻底伤透的节奏，让人失望的公司领导","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/623542242","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1742,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":623715069,"gmtCreate":1671677919352,"gmtModify":1671677920911,"author":{"id":"3579840132432347","authorId":"3579840132432347","name":"smartzhang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4641e31d220127619216e66c3e4ec7ae","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579840132432347","idStr":"3579840132432347"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/623715069","repostId":"629452100","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":629452100,"gmtCreate":1670816505700,"gmtModify":1670816517581,"author":{"id":"3514329116425907","authorId":"3514329116425907","name":"小虎AV","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/162e12f8dcec770ec19f66f2abb0d5db","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3514329116425907","idStr":"3514329116425907"},"themes":[],"title":"雷军回应小米因对标iPhone被人笑话","htmlText":"\n \n \n 雷军在小米13发布会上提到，一年多前他提出对标iPhone，网上不少人笑话他。他回应称，如果小米没有对标iPhone的勇气和决心，怎么能把高端手机做好，所以全面对标iPhone是向iPhone学习，将来有机会超越iPhone的开始，所以无论软件和硬件一定认认真真对标iPhone。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a>\n \n","listText":"雷军在小米13发布会上提到，一年多前他提出对标iPhone，网上不少人笑话他。他回应称，如果小米没有对标iPhone的勇气和决心，怎么能把高端手机做好，所以全面对标iPhone是向iPhone学习，将来有机会超越iPhone的开始，所以无论软件和硬件一定认认真真对标iPhone。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a>","text":"雷军在小米13发布会上提到，一年多前他提出对标iPhone，网上不少人笑话他。他回应称，如果小米没有对标iPhone的勇气和决心，怎么能把高端手机做好，所以全面对标iPhone是向iPhone学习，将来有机会超越iPhone的开始，所以无论软件和硬件一定认认真真对标iPhone。$小米集团-W(01810)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/629452100","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"e09a2aa9732e4ce8b548005fb7b8ac58","tweetId":"629452100","videoUrl":"https://1254107296.vod2.myqcloud.com/73ba5544vodgzp1254107296/ba09d888243791577151901302/7YXbRETYewcA.mp4","poster":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f79affa9f051afb1daba09e122bae46a"},"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1899,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":114673578,"gmtCreate":1623074093394,"gmtModify":1623074586837,"author":{"id":"3579840132432347","authorId":"3579840132432347","name":"smartzhang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4641e31d220127619216e66c3e4ec7ae","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579840132432347","authorIdStr":"3579840132432347"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDH\">$水滴(WDH)$</a>水滴要坚持吗？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDH\">$水滴(WDH)$</a>水滴要坚持吗？","text":"$水滴(WDH)$水滴要坚持吗？","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/325eee9996a9a184bd10b1eada06ce6b","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":12,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/114673578","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7813,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":144237608,"gmtCreate":1626299313004,"gmtModify":1626299313004,"author":{"id":"3579840132432347","authorId":"3579840132432347","name":"smartzhang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4641e31d220127619216e66c3e4ec7ae","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579840132432347","authorIdStr":"3579840132432347"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDH\">$水滴(WDH)$</a>水滴太难了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDH\">$水滴(WDH)$</a>水滴太难了","text":"$水滴(WDH)$水滴太难了","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb08402135f8185bf09ac246dcd74f04","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":4,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/144237608","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1303,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":189770610,"gmtCreate":1623291011730,"gmtModify":1623291011730,"author":{"id":"3579840132432347","authorId":"3579840132432347","name":"smartzhang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4641e31d220127619216e66c3e4ec7ae","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579840132432347","authorIdStr":"3579840132432347"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDH\">$水滴(WDH)$</a>水滴无语了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDH\">$水滴(WDH)$</a>水滴无语了","text":"$水滴(WDH)$水滴无语了","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9bd620b1ec0ec74cc1d214e50e8db1a4","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/189770610","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1476,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":184023328,"gmtCreate":1623678541264,"gmtModify":1623678541264,"author":{"id":"3579840132432347","authorId":"3579840132432347","name":"smartzhang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4641e31d220127619216e66c3e4ec7ae","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579840132432347","authorIdStr":"3579840132432347"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDH\">$水滴(WDH)$</a>水滴财报会迎来拐点吗？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDH\">$水滴(WDH)$</a>水滴财报会迎来拐点吗？","text":"$水滴(WDH)$水滴财报会迎来拐点吗？","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80a08bad5f14d79371d337821573f7bf","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":12,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/184023328","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1976,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":153907156,"gmtCreate":1624999278675,"gmtModify":1624999278675,"author":{"id":"3579840132432347","authorId":"3579840132432347","name":"smartzhang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4641e31d220127619216e66c3e4ec7ae","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579840132432347","authorIdStr":"3579840132432347"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDH\">$水滴(WDH)$</a>水啥时候能不滴了？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDH\">$水滴(WDH)$</a>水啥时候能不滴了？","text":"$水滴(WDH)$水啥时候能不滴了？","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b3f891dbc9e9992a7a88d477604e36a","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/153907156","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1709,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":112636843,"gmtCreate":1622864881982,"gmtModify":1622864881982,"author":{"id":"3579840132432347","authorId":"3579840132432347","name":"smartzhang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4641e31d220127619216e66c3e4ec7ae","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579840132432347","authorIdStr":"3579840132432347"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDH\">$水滴(WDH)$</a>哈哈哈","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDH\">$水滴(WDH)$</a>哈哈哈","text":"$水滴(WDH)$哈哈哈","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4414b8f612bfb9036342a80495dd6d86","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/112636843","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2842,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":110389047,"gmtCreate":1622425562589,"gmtModify":1622425562589,"author":{"id":"3579840132432347","authorId":"3579840132432347","name":"smartzhang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4641e31d220127619216e66c3e4ec7ae","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579840132432347","authorIdStr":"3579840132432347"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDH\">$水滴(WDH)$</a>水滴多长时间能上来？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDH\">$水滴(WDH)$</a>水滴多长时间能上来？","text":"$水滴(WDH)$水滴多长时间能上来？","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad25a370579245b01a7af78d7ffbb3a0","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/110389047","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1206,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":127194029,"gmtCreate":1624838778961,"gmtModify":1624838778961,"author":{"id":"3579840132432347","authorId":"3579840132432347","name":"smartzhang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4641e31d220127619216e66c3e4ec7ae","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579840132432347","authorIdStr":"3579840132432347"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MF\">$每日优鲜(MF)$</a>优鲜今天会怎样走？欢迎预测","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MF\">$每日优鲜(MF)$</a>优鲜今天会怎样走？欢迎预测","text":"$每日优鲜(MF)$优鲜今天会怎样走？欢迎预测","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01c89766d19b5582ed5e0a4adc54dae6","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127194029","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4164,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":125726664,"gmtCreate":1624696333158,"gmtModify":1624696333158,"author":{"id":"3579840132432347","authorId":"3579840132432347","name":"smartzhang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4641e31d220127619216e66c3e4ec7ae","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579840132432347","authorIdStr":"3579840132432347"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MF\">$每日优鲜(MF)$</a>优鲜有惊无险","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MF\">$每日优鲜(MF)$</a>优鲜有惊无险","text":"$每日优鲜(MF)$优鲜有惊无险","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01c89766d19b5582ed5e0a4adc54dae6","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/125726664","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3912,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":116167116,"gmtCreate":1622781502235,"gmtModify":1622781502235,"author":{"id":"3579840132432347","authorId":"3579840132432347","name":"smartzhang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4641e31d220127619216e66c3e4ec7ae","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579840132432347","authorIdStr":"3579840132432347"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDH\">$水滴(WDH)$</a>水滴让人等多久啊","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDH\">$水滴(WDH)$</a>水滴让人等多久啊","text":"$水滴(WDH)$水滴让人等多久啊","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/548258d18a95692e067632cf2b051115","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/116167116","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1002,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
