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2021-11-20

Happy weekend all!

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2021-10-30

Happy weekend all!

Top Wall Street Strategist Sees a Fast 10% Q4 Correction Coming<blockquote>华尔街顶级策略师预计第四季度将出现10%的快速调整</blockquote>

2021-10-08

Happy weekend!

6 reasons this is a fresh multiyear bull market and 6 stocks in the surprising sector you should favor<blockquote>这是一个新的多年牛市的6个原因以及您应该青睐的令人惊讶的行业中的6只股票</blockquote>

2021-07-12

Yeay

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2021-11-14

Happy weekend all!

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2021-10-17

Have a good Sunday!

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2021-09-29

Correction

Technically Speaking: Is The Market "Melting-Up?"<blockquote>从技术上讲：市场正在“融化”吗？</blockquote>

2021-07-15

Hmmm

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2021-07-09

Today is Friday!

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2021-11-06

Happy weekend all!

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Energy lost 2.2%.</p><p><blockquote>标普500 11大板块指数悉数下跌，金融股跌幅2.3%领跌。能源下跌2.2%。</blockquote></p><p> Adding to uncertainty, Pfizer said on Friday the pandemic could extend through next year. European countries geared up for further travel and social restrictions and a study warned that the rapidly spreading Omicron coronavirus variant was five times more likely to reinfect people than its predecessor, Delta.</p><p><blockquote>辉瑞周五表示，疫情可能会延续到明年，这增加了不确定性。欧洲国家为进一步的旅行和社会限制做好了准备，一项研究警告说，迅速传播的奥密克戎冠状病毒变种重新感染人类的可能性是其前身达美航空的五倍。</blockquote></p><p> Traders also pointed to year-end tax selling and the simultaneous expiration of stock options, stock index futures and index options contracts - known as triple witching - as potential causes for volatility.</p><p><blockquote>交易员还指出，年终税收抛售以及股票期权、股指期货和指数期权合约同时到期——被称为三重巫术——是波动的潜在原因。</blockquote></p><p> \"It's a big options expiration day,\" said Joe Saluzzi, co-manager of trading at Themis Trading in Chatham, New Jersey. \"And now you draw on top of that some Omicron, and you've got volatility, and I think it creates a lot of uncertainty amongst investors. Where are you going to position for the end of the year?\"</p><p><blockquote>新泽西州查塔姆Themis Trading交易联席经理Joe Saluzzi表示：“这是一个重要的期权到期日。”“现在你在此基础上利用一些奥密克戎，就会出现波动，我认为这给投资者带来了很多不确定性。今年年底你打算在哪里定位？”</blockquote></p><p> Heavyweight growth stocks including Nvidia and Microsoft have outperformed the broader market in 2021, while the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index has surged about 35%. The benchmark S&amp;P 500 index gained around 23% in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>包括英伟达和微软在内的权重成长股在2021年的表现优于大盘，而费城SE半导体指数则飙升了约35%。基准标普500指数同期上涨约23%。</blockquote></p><p> In Friday's session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.48% to end at 35,365.44 points, while the S&amp;P 500 lost 1.03% to 4,620.64.</p><p><blockquote>周五交易中，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌1.48%，收于35,365.44点，标普500下跌1.03%，收于4,620.64点。</blockquote></p><p> The Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.07% to 15,169.68.</p><p><blockquote>纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.07%，至15,169.68点。</blockquote></p><p> On a positive note, the small-cap Russell 2000 index rallied 1% after having fallen more than 10% from a record high in early November.</p><p><blockquote>积极的一面是，小盘股罗素2000指数在从11月初的历史高点下跌超过10%后，上涨了1%。</blockquote></p><p> With options expiring, volume on U.S. exchanges jumped to 16.6 billion shares, far above the 11.9 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>随着期权到期，美国交易所的成交量跃升至166亿股，远高于过去20个交易日119亿股的平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> For the week, the S&amp;P 500 fell 1.9%, the Dow lost 1.7% and the Nasdaq declined 2.9%.</p><p><blockquote>本周，标普500下跌1.9%，道琼斯指数下跌1.7%，纳斯达克下跌2.9%。</blockquote></p><p> In Friday's session, Oracle tumbled 6.4% after the Wall Street Journal reported the enterprise software maker is in talks to buy electronic medical records company Cerner in a deal that could be valued at $30 billion. Shares of Cerner surged 12.9%.</p><p><blockquote>周五交易中，甲骨文股价下跌6.4%，此前《华尔街日报》报道称，这家企业软件制造商正在就收购电子医疗记录公司Cerner进行谈判，交易价值可能达到300亿美元。Cerner股价飙升12.9%。</blockquote></p><p> FedEx Corp rose almost 5% after the delivery firm reinstated its original fiscal 2022 forecast on Thursday, even as persistent labor woes chipped away profits.</p><p><blockquote>尽管持续的劳工困境削弱了利润，但联邦快递公司周四恢复了最初的2022财年预测，该公司股价上涨近5%。</blockquote></p><p> Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.50-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.16-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所下跌股与上涨股的比例为1.50比1；在纳斯达克，1.16比1的比率有利于上涨者。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 posted 22 new 52-week highs and seven new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 28 new highs and 341 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下22个52周新高和7个新低；纳斯达克综合指数录得28个新高和341个新低。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street ends down after mostly negative week<blockquote>华尔街在经历了大部分负面的一周后收盘下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street ends down after mostly negative week<blockquote>华尔街在经历了大部分负面的一周后收盘下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-18 07:59</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Reuters) - Wall Street finished lower on Friday, weighed down by Big Tech as investors worried about the Omicron coronavirus variant and digested the Federal Reserve's decision to end its pandemic-era stimulus faster.</p><p><blockquote>（路透社）-华尔街周五收低，受大型科技股拖累，投资者担心奥密克戎冠状病毒变种，并更快消化美联储结束大流行时期刺激措施的决定。</blockquote></p><p> All three main U.S. stock indexes ended with a decline for the week after the Fed on Wednesday signaled three quarter-percentage-point interest rate hikes by the end of 2022 to combat surging inflation.</p><p><blockquote>在美联储周三暗示在2022年底前加息三次0.25个百分点以应对飙升的通胀后，美国三大主要股指本周均收跌。</blockquote></p><p> Nvidia dropped 2.1% and Alphabet lost 1.9%, both weighing on the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达下跌2.1%，Alphabet下跌1.9%，均令标普500和纳斯达克承压。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 growth index lost 0.7% and the value index declined 1.4%.</p><p><blockquote>标普500增长指数下跌0.7%，价值指数下跌1.4%。</blockquote></p><p> All of the 11 major S&amp;P 500 sector indexes fell, with financials leading the way down with a 2.3% drop. Energy lost 2.2%.</p><p><blockquote>标普500 11大板块指数悉数下跌，金融股跌幅2.3%领跌。能源下跌2.2%。</blockquote></p><p> Adding to uncertainty, Pfizer said on Friday the pandemic could extend through next year. European countries geared up for further travel and social restrictions and a study warned that the rapidly spreading Omicron coronavirus variant was five times more likely to reinfect people than its predecessor, Delta.</p><p><blockquote>辉瑞周五表示，疫情可能会延续到明年，这增加了不确定性。欧洲国家为进一步的旅行和社会限制做好了准备，一项研究警告说，迅速传播的奥密克戎冠状病毒变种重新感染人类的可能性是其前身达美航空的五倍。</blockquote></p><p> Traders also pointed to year-end tax selling and the simultaneous expiration of stock options, stock index futures and index options contracts - known as triple witching - as potential causes for volatility.</p><p><blockquote>交易员还指出，年终税收抛售以及股票期权、股指期货和指数期权合约同时到期——被称为三重巫术——是波动的潜在原因。</blockquote></p><p> \"It's a big options expiration day,\" said Joe Saluzzi, co-manager of trading at Themis Trading in Chatham, New Jersey. \"And now you draw on top of that some Omicron, and you've got volatility, and I think it creates a lot of uncertainty amongst investors. Where are you going to position for the end of the year?\"</p><p><blockquote>新泽西州查塔姆Themis Trading交易联席经理Joe Saluzzi表示：“这是一个重要的期权到期日。”“现在你在此基础上利用一些奥密克戎，就会出现波动，我认为这给投资者带来了很多不确定性。今年年底你打算在哪里定位？”</blockquote></p><p> Heavyweight growth stocks including Nvidia and Microsoft have outperformed the broader market in 2021, while the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index has surged about 35%. The benchmark S&amp;P 500 index gained around 23% in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>包括英伟达和微软在内的权重成长股在2021年的表现优于大盘，而费城SE半导体指数则飙升了约35%。基准标普500指数同期上涨约23%。</blockquote></p><p> In Friday's session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.48% to end at 35,365.44 points, while the S&amp;P 500 lost 1.03% to 4,620.64.</p><p><blockquote>周五交易中，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌1.48%，收于35,365.44点，标普500下跌1.03%，收于4,620.64点。</blockquote></p><p> The Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.07% to 15,169.68.</p><p><blockquote>纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.07%，至15,169.68点。</blockquote></p><p> On a positive note, the small-cap Russell 2000 index rallied 1% after having fallen more than 10% from a record high in early November.</p><p><blockquote>积极的一面是，小盘股罗素2000指数在从11月初的历史高点下跌超过10%后，上涨了1%。</blockquote></p><p> With options expiring, volume on U.S. exchanges jumped to 16.6 billion shares, far above the 11.9 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>随着期权到期，美国交易所的成交量跃升至166亿股，远高于过去20个交易日119亿股的平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> For the week, the S&amp;P 500 fell 1.9%, the Dow lost 1.7% and the Nasdaq declined 2.9%.</p><p><blockquote>本周，标普500下跌1.9%，道琼斯指数下跌1.7%，纳斯达克下跌2.9%。</blockquote></p><p> In Friday's session, Oracle tumbled 6.4% after the Wall Street Journal reported the enterprise software maker is in talks to buy electronic medical records company Cerner in a deal that could be valued at $30 billion. Shares of Cerner surged 12.9%.</p><p><blockquote>周五交易中，甲骨文股价下跌6.4%，此前《华尔街日报》报道称，这家企业软件制造商正在就收购电子医疗记录公司Cerner进行谈判，交易价值可能达到300亿美元。Cerner股价飙升12.9%。</blockquote></p><p> FedEx Corp rose almost 5% after the delivery firm reinstated its original fiscal 2022 forecast on Thursday, even as persistent labor woes chipped away profits.</p><p><blockquote>尽管持续的劳工困境削弱了利润，但联邦快递公司周四恢复了最初的2022财年预测，该公司股价上涨近5%。</blockquote></p><p> Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.50-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.16-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所下跌股与上涨股的比例为1.50比1；在纳斯达克，1.16比1的比率有利于上涨者。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 posted 22 new 52-week highs and seven new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 28 new highs and 341 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下22个52周新高和7个新低；纳斯达克综合指数录得28个新高和341个新低。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-stocks-wall-street-ends-212015460.html\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-stocks-wall-street-ends-212015460.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116106959","content_text":"(Reuters) - Wall Street finished lower on Friday, weighed down by Big Tech as investors worried about the Omicron coronavirus variant and digested the Federal Reserve's decision to end its pandemic-era stimulus faster.\nAll three main U.S. stock indexes ended with a decline for the week after the Fed on Wednesday signaled three quarter-percentage-point interest rate hikes by the end of 2022 to combat surging inflation.\nNvidia dropped 2.1% and Alphabet lost 1.9%, both weighing on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.\nThe S&P 500 growth index lost 0.7% and the value index declined 1.4%.\nAll of the 11 major S&P 500 sector indexes fell, with financials leading the way down with a 2.3% drop. Energy lost 2.2%.\nAdding to uncertainty, Pfizer said on Friday the pandemic could extend through next year. European countries geared up for further travel and social restrictions and a study warned that the rapidly spreading Omicron coronavirus variant was five times more likely to reinfect people than its predecessor, Delta.\nTraders also pointed to year-end tax selling and the simultaneous expiration of stock options, stock index futures and index options contracts - known as triple witching - as potential causes for volatility.\n\"It's a big options expiration day,\" said Joe Saluzzi, co-manager of trading at Themis Trading in Chatham, New Jersey. \"And now you draw on top of that some Omicron, and you've got volatility, and I think it creates a lot of uncertainty amongst investors. Where are you going to position for the end of the year?\"\nHeavyweight growth stocks including Nvidia and Microsoft have outperformed the broader market in 2021, while the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index has surged about 35%. The benchmark S&P 500 index gained around 23% in the same period.\nIn Friday's session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.48% to end at 35,365.44 points, while the S&P 500 lost 1.03% to 4,620.64.\nThe Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.07% to 15,169.68.\nOn a positive note, the small-cap Russell 2000 index rallied 1% after having fallen more than 10% from a record high in early November.\nWith options expiring, volume on U.S. exchanges jumped to 16.6 billion shares, far above the 11.9 billion average over the last 20 trading days.\nFor the week, the S&P 500 fell 1.9%, the Dow lost 1.7% and the Nasdaq declined 2.9%.\nIn Friday's session, Oracle tumbled 6.4% after the Wall Street Journal reported the enterprise software maker is in talks to buy electronic medical records company Cerner in a deal that could be valued at $30 billion. Shares of Cerner surged 12.9%.\nFedEx Corp rose almost 5% after the delivery firm reinstated its original fiscal 2022 forecast on Thursday, even as persistent labor woes chipped away profits.\nDeclining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.50-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.16-to-1 ratio favored advancers.\nThe S&P 500 posted 22 new 52-week highs and seven new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 28 new highs and 341 new lows.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1982,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":605439338,"gmtCreate":1639208625136,"gmtModify":1639208625449,"author":{"id":"3579599009721057","authorId":"3579599009721057","name":"leddjy","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579599009721057","authorIdStr":"3579599009721057"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Happy weekend!","listText":"Happy weekend!","text":"Happy weekend!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/605439338","repostId":"2190767366","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3353,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":608797761,"gmtCreate":1638787924460,"gmtModify":1638788126893,"author":{"id":"3579599009721057","authorId":"3579599009721057","name":"leddjy","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579599009721057","authorIdStr":"3579599009721057"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Happy Monday!","listText":"Happy Monday!","text":"Happy Monday!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/608797761","repostId":"1179313612","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1179313612","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638745398,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1179313612?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-06 07:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Game Stop, Toll Brothers, Costco, CVS, and Other Stocks to Watch This Week<blockquote>Game Stop、Toll Brothers、Costco、CVS和其他本周值得关注的股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179313612","media":"Barrons","summary":"Meme stock darling GameStop headlines this week’s earnings report lineup. The videogame retailer rep","content":"<p>Meme stock darling <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GameStop</a> headlines this week’s earnings report lineup. The videogame retailer reports results after the market closes on Wednesday. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AZO\">AutoZone</a>, Casey’s <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BGC\">General</a> Stores, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TOL\">Toll Brothers</a> report earnings on Tuesday, followed by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BF.A\">Brown-Forman</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CPB\">Campbell Soup</a> on Wednesday. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">Broadcom</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COST\">Costco</a> Wholesale, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HRL\">Hormel</a> Foods round things out on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>模因股票宠儿<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">游戏驿站</a>本周财报阵容头条。这家视频游戏零售商将在周三收盘后公布业绩。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AZO\">AutoZone</a>，凯西的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BGC\">一般的</a>商店，以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TOL\">托尔兄弟</a>周二公布收益，随后<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BF.A\">布朗-福尔曼</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CPB\">金宝汤</a>星期三。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">Broadcom</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COST\">Costco</a>批发，及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HRL\">荷美尔</a>周四的食物使事情更加圆满。</blockquote></p><p> On Monday, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UNP\">Union Pacific</a> will hold a conference call to discuss its climate action plan. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCK\">McKesson</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUV\">Southwest Airlines</a> host their 2021 investor days on Wednesday, followed by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVS\">CVS Health</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSN\">Tyson</a> Foods on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>周一，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UNP\">联合太平洋</a>将召开电话会议讨论其气候行动计划。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCK\">麦克森</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUV\">西南航空</a>周三举办2021年投资者日，随后<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVS\">CVS健康</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSN\">泰森</a>周四的食物。</blockquote></p><p> The Federal Reserve’s report on consumer credit data for October will be released on Tuesday. On Thursday, the U.S. Labor Department reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on Dec. 4.</p><p><blockquote>美联储10月消费者信贷数据报告将于周二公布。周四，美国劳工部公布了截至12月4日当周的首次申请失业救济人数。</blockquote></p><p> The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the consumer price index for November on Friday. The consensus estimate is for a 6.7% year-over-year jump, half a percentage point more than in October. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to rise 4.8% versus 4.6% previously.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工统计局周五发布11月份消费者价格指数。市场普遍预期同比增长6.7%，比10月份高出半个百分点。排除波动较大的食品和能源价格的核心CPI预计将上涨4.8%，而此前为4.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Monday 12/6</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期一12/6</b></blockquote></p><p> Union Pacific holds a conference call to discuss its climate action plan.</p><p><blockquote>联合太平洋公司召开电话会议讨论其气候行动计划。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tuesday 12/7</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二12/7</b></blockquote></p><p> AutoZone, Casey’s General Stores, and Toll Brothers announce quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>AutoZone、Casey’s General Stores和Toll Brothers公布季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> The Federal Reserve reports on consumer credit data for October. After falling slightly last year, total outstanding consumer debt has risen an average of $20 billion a month through September, and stands at a record $4.37 trillion.</p><p><blockquote>美联储报告10月份消费者信贷数据。继去年小幅下降后，截至9月份，未偿消费者债务总额平均每月增加200亿美元，达到创纪录的4.37万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wednesday 12/8</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三12/8</b></blockquote></p><p> The BLS releases the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Economists forecast 10.5 million job openings on the last business day of October, only 600,000 less than the record high of 11.1 million in July.</p><p><blockquote>BLS发布职位空缺和劳动力流动调查。经济学家预测10月最后一个工作日将有1050万个职位空缺，仅比7月1110万的历史新高少60万个。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BF.B\">Brown-Forman</a>, Campbell Soup, and GameStop report earnings.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BF.B\">布朗-福尔曼</a>、金宝汤和游戏驿站公布财报。</blockquote></p><p> McKesson and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OKSB\">Southwest</a> Airlines host their 2021 investor days.</p><p><blockquote>麦克森和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OKSB\">西南</a>航空公司举办2021年投资者日。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EW\">Edwards Lifesciences</a> holds an investor conference in Irvine, Calif. The company will discuss its product pipeline as well as its financial outlook for 2022.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EW\">爱德华兹生命科学公司</a>在加州尔湾举行投资者会议。该公司将讨论其产品线以及2022年的财务前景。</blockquote></p><p> The Bank of Canada announces its monetary-policy decision. The central bank is expected to keep its key short-term interest rate unchanged at 0.25%. At its late-October meeting, the bank ended its quantitative-easing program and signaled that its first interest-rate hike would be earlier in 2022 than had been expected.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大央行宣布货币政策决定。预计央行将维持关键短期利率在0.25%不变。在10月底的会议上，央行结束了量化宽松计划，并表示首次加息将于2022年早于预期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Thursday 12/9</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四12/9</b></blockquote></p><p> Broadcom, Costco Wholesale, and Hormel Foods hold conference calls to discuss quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>Broadcom、Costco Wholesale和Hormel Foods在评级召开会议讨论季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> CVS Health and Tyson Foods host their annual investor days.</p><p><blockquote>CVS Health和泰森食品举办年度投资者日。</blockquote></p><p> The Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on Dec. 4. Jobless claims averaged 238,750 in November, the lowest since the beginning of the pandemic, and just 24,750 more than in February of 2020.</p><p><blockquote>劳工部报告了截至12月4日当周的首次申请失业救济人数。11月份平均申请失业救济人数为238,750人，为大流行开始以来的最低水平，仅比2020年2月增加24,750人。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Friday 12/10</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期五12/10</b></blockquote></p><p> Archer-Daniels-Midland holds its global investor day.</p><p><blockquote>阿彻-丹尼尔斯-米德兰举办全球投资者日。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNC\">Centene</a> holds an investor meeting and will provide financial guidance for 2022.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNC\">Centene</a>召开投资者会议，并将提供2022年的财务指导。</blockquote></p><p> The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the consumer price index for November. Consensus estimate is for a 6.7% year-over-year jump, half a percentage point more than in October. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to rise 4.8% versus 4.6% previously. October’s 6.2% increase was the hottest the CPI has run in more than 30 years, and this past week Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">Powell</a> finally ditched “transitory” when discussing inflation before the Senate Banking Committee.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工统计局发布11月份消费者价格指数。市场普遍预计同比增长6.7%，比10月份高出半个百分点。排除波动较大的食品和能源价格的核心CPI预计将上涨4.8%，而此前为4.6%。10月份6.2%的涨幅是CPI 30多年来最热的一次，上周美联储主席杰罗姆<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">鲍威尔</a>在参议院银行委员会讨论通货膨胀时，最终放弃了“暂时性”。</blockquote></p><p> The University of Michigan releases its Consumer Sentiment index for December. Economists forecast a 66 reading, slightly less than the November data.</p><p><blockquote>密歇根大学发布12月份消费者信心指数。经济学家预测为66，略低于11月份的数据。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Game Stop, Toll Brothers, Costco, CVS, and Other Stocks to Watch This Week<blockquote>Game Stop、Toll Brothers、Costco、CVS和其他本周值得关注的股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGame Stop, Toll Brothers, Costco, CVS, and Other Stocks to Watch This Week<blockquote>Game Stop、Toll Brothers、Costco、CVS和其他本周值得关注的股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-06 07:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Meme stock darling <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GameStop</a> headlines this week’s earnings report lineup. The videogame retailer reports results after the market closes on Wednesday. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AZO\">AutoZone</a>, Casey’s <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BGC\">General</a> Stores, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TOL\">Toll Brothers</a> report earnings on Tuesday, followed by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BF.A\">Brown-Forman</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CPB\">Campbell Soup</a> on Wednesday. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">Broadcom</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COST\">Costco</a> Wholesale, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HRL\">Hormel</a> Foods round things out on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>模因股票宠儿<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">游戏驿站</a>本周财报阵容头条。这家视频游戏零售商将在周三收盘后公布业绩。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AZO\">AutoZone</a>，凯西的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BGC\">一般的</a>商店，以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TOL\">托尔兄弟</a>周二公布收益，随后<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BF.A\">布朗-福尔曼</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CPB\">金宝汤</a>星期三。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">Broadcom</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COST\">Costco</a>批发，及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HRL\">荷美尔</a>周四的食物使事情更加圆满。</blockquote></p><p> On Monday, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UNP\">Union Pacific</a> will hold a conference call to discuss its climate action plan. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCK\">McKesson</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUV\">Southwest Airlines</a> host their 2021 investor days on Wednesday, followed by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVS\">CVS Health</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSN\">Tyson</a> Foods on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>周一，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UNP\">联合太平洋</a>将召开电话会议讨论其气候行动计划。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCK\">麦克森</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUV\">西南航空</a>周三举办2021年投资者日，随后<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVS\">CVS健康</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSN\">泰森</a>周四的食物。</blockquote></p><p> The Federal Reserve’s report on consumer credit data for October will be released on Tuesday. On Thursday, the U.S. Labor Department reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on Dec. 4.</p><p><blockquote>美联储10月消费者信贷数据报告将于周二公布。周四，美国劳工部公布了截至12月4日当周的首次申请失业救济人数。</blockquote></p><p> The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the consumer price index for November on Friday. The consensus estimate is for a 6.7% year-over-year jump, half a percentage point more than in October. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to rise 4.8% versus 4.6% previously.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工统计局周五发布11月份消费者价格指数。市场普遍预期同比增长6.7%，比10月份高出半个百分点。排除波动较大的食品和能源价格的核心CPI预计将上涨4.8%，而此前为4.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Monday 12/6</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期一12/6</b></blockquote></p><p> Union Pacific holds a conference call to discuss its climate action plan.</p><p><blockquote>联合太平洋公司召开电话会议讨论其气候行动计划。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tuesday 12/7</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二12/7</b></blockquote></p><p> AutoZone, Casey’s General Stores, and Toll Brothers announce quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>AutoZone、Casey’s General Stores和Toll Brothers公布季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> The Federal Reserve reports on consumer credit data for October. After falling slightly last year, total outstanding consumer debt has risen an average of $20 billion a month through September, and stands at a record $4.37 trillion.</p><p><blockquote>美联储报告10月份消费者信贷数据。继去年小幅下降后，截至9月份，未偿消费者债务总额平均每月增加200亿美元，达到创纪录的4.37万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wednesday 12/8</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三12/8</b></blockquote></p><p> The BLS releases the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Economists forecast 10.5 million job openings on the last business day of October, only 600,000 less than the record high of 11.1 million in July.</p><p><blockquote>BLS发布职位空缺和劳动力流动调查。经济学家预测10月最后一个工作日将有1050万个职位空缺，仅比7月1110万的历史新高少60万个。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BF.B\">Brown-Forman</a>, Campbell Soup, and GameStop report earnings.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BF.B\">布朗-福尔曼</a>、金宝汤和游戏驿站公布财报。</blockquote></p><p> McKesson and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OKSB\">Southwest</a> Airlines host their 2021 investor days.</p><p><blockquote>麦克森和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OKSB\">西南</a>航空公司举办2021年投资者日。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EW\">Edwards Lifesciences</a> holds an investor conference in Irvine, Calif. The company will discuss its product pipeline as well as its financial outlook for 2022.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EW\">爱德华兹生命科学公司</a>在加州尔湾举行投资者会议。该公司将讨论其产品线以及2022年的财务前景。</blockquote></p><p> The Bank of Canada announces its monetary-policy decision. The central bank is expected to keep its key short-term interest rate unchanged at 0.25%. At its late-October meeting, the bank ended its quantitative-easing program and signaled that its first interest-rate hike would be earlier in 2022 than had been expected.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大央行宣布货币政策决定。预计央行将维持关键短期利率在0.25%不变。在10月底的会议上，央行结束了量化宽松计划，并表示首次加息将于2022年早于预期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Thursday 12/9</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四12/9</b></blockquote></p><p> Broadcom, Costco Wholesale, and Hormel Foods hold conference calls to discuss quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>Broadcom、Costco Wholesale和Hormel Foods在评级召开会议讨论季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> CVS Health and Tyson Foods host their annual investor days.</p><p><blockquote>CVS Health和泰森食品举办年度投资者日。</blockquote></p><p> The Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on Dec. 4. Jobless claims averaged 238,750 in November, the lowest since the beginning of the pandemic, and just 24,750 more than in February of 2020.</p><p><blockquote>劳工部报告了截至12月4日当周的首次申请失业救济人数。11月份平均申请失业救济人数为238,750人，为大流行开始以来的最低水平，仅比2020年2月增加24,750人。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Friday 12/10</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期五12/10</b></blockquote></p><p> Archer-Daniels-Midland holds its global investor day.</p><p><blockquote>阿彻-丹尼尔斯-米德兰举办全球投资者日。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNC\">Centene</a> holds an investor meeting and will provide financial guidance for 2022.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNC\">Centene</a>召开投资者会议，并将提供2022年的财务指导。</blockquote></p><p> The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the consumer price index for November. Consensus estimate is for a 6.7% year-over-year jump, half a percentage point more than in October. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to rise 4.8% versus 4.6% previously. October’s 6.2% increase was the hottest the CPI has run in more than 30 years, and this past week Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">Powell</a> finally ditched “transitory” when discussing inflation before the Senate Banking Committee.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工统计局发布11月份消费者价格指数。市场普遍预计同比增长6.7%，比10月份高出半个百分点。排除波动较大的食品和能源价格的核心CPI预计将上涨4.8%，而此前为4.6%。10月份6.2%的涨幅是CPI 30多年来最热的一次，上周美联储主席杰罗姆<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">鲍威尔</a>在参议院银行委员会讨论通货膨胀时，最终放弃了“暂时性”。</blockquote></p><p> The University of Michigan releases its Consumer Sentiment index for December. Economists forecast a 66 reading, slightly less than the November data.</p><p><blockquote>密歇根大学发布12月份消费者信心指数。经济学家预测为66，略低于11月份的数据。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/game-stop-toll-brothers-costco-cvs-and-other-stocks-to-watch-this-week-51638734413?mod=barrons-on-marketwatch\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COST":"好市多","TOL":"托尔兄弟","BK4088":"住宅建筑","GME":"游戏驿站","CVS":"西维斯健康"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/game-stop-toll-brothers-costco-cvs-and-other-stocks-to-watch-this-week-51638734413?mod=barrons-on-marketwatch","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1179313612","content_text":"Meme stock darling GameStop headlines this week’s earnings report lineup. The videogame retailer reports results after the market closes on Wednesday. AutoZone, Casey’s General Stores, and Toll Brothers report earnings on Tuesday, followed by Brown-Forman and Campbell Soup on Wednesday. Broadcom, Costco Wholesale, and Hormel Foods round things out on Thursday.\nOn Monday, Union Pacific will hold a conference call to discuss its climate action plan. McKesson and Southwest Airlines host their 2021 investor days on Wednesday, followed by CVS Health and Tyson Foods on Thursday.\nThe Federal Reserve’s report on consumer credit data for October will be released on Tuesday. On Thursday, the U.S. Labor Department reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on Dec. 4.\nThe Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the consumer price index for November on Friday. The consensus estimate is for a 6.7% year-over-year jump, half a percentage point more than in October. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to rise 4.8% versus 4.6% previously.\nMonday 12/6\nUnion Pacific holds a conference call to discuss its climate action plan.\nTuesday 12/7\nAutoZone, Casey’s General Stores, and Toll Brothers announce quarterly results.\nThe Federal Reserve reports on consumer credit data for October. After falling slightly last year, total outstanding consumer debt has risen an average of $20 billion a month through September, and stands at a record $4.37 trillion.\nWednesday 12/8\nThe BLS releases the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Economists forecast 10.5 million job openings on the last business day of October, only 600,000 less than the record high of 11.1 million in July.\nBrown-Forman, Campbell Soup, and GameStop report earnings.\nMcKesson and Southwest Airlines host their 2021 investor days.\nEdwards Lifesciences holds an investor conference in Irvine, Calif. The company will discuss its product pipeline as well as its financial outlook for 2022.\nThe Bank of Canada announces its monetary-policy decision. The central bank is expected to keep its key short-term interest rate unchanged at 0.25%. At its late-October meeting, the bank ended its quantitative-easing program and signaled that its first interest-rate hike would be earlier in 2022 than had been expected.\nThursday 12/9\nBroadcom, Costco Wholesale, and Hormel Foods hold conference calls to discuss quarterly results.\nCVS Health and Tyson Foods host their annual investor days.\nThe Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on Dec. 4. Jobless claims averaged 238,750 in November, the lowest since the beginning of the pandemic, and just 24,750 more than in February of 2020.\nFriday 12/10\nArcher-Daniels-Midland holds its global investor day.\nCentene holds an investor meeting and will provide financial guidance for 2022.\nThe Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the consumer price index for November. Consensus estimate is for a 6.7% year-over-year jump, half a percentage point more than in October. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to rise 4.8% versus 4.6% previously. October’s 6.2% increase was the hottest the CPI has run in more than 30 years, and this past week Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell finally ditched “transitory” when discussing inflation before the Senate Banking Committee.\nThe University of Michigan releases its Consumer Sentiment index for December. Economists forecast a 66 reading, slightly less than the November data.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CVS":0.9,"TOL":0.9,"GME":0.9,"COST":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2781,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":608608396,"gmtCreate":1638698248387,"gmtModify":1638698248571,"author":{"id":"3579599009721057","authorId":"3579599009721057","name":"leddjy","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579599009721057","authorIdStr":"3579599009721057"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Happy weekend!","listText":"Happy weekend!","text":"Happy weekend!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/608608396","repostId":"1140678193","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1968,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":600110409,"gmtCreate":1638086014320,"gmtModify":1638086014454,"author":{"id":"3579599009721057","authorId":"3579599009721057","name":"leddjy","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579599009721057","authorIdStr":"3579599009721057"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Happy weekend!","listText":"Happy weekend!","text":"Happy weekend!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/600110409","repostId":"2186328547","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2186328547","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1638069455,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2186328547?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-28 11:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Google, Dell Lead Five Diverse Stocks Near Buy Points<blockquote>谷歌、戴尔引领五只多元化股票接近买入点</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2186328547","media":"ADELIA CELLINI LINECKER","summary":"Google leads five stocks to watch this week around buy points. It's on IBD Leaderboard, Long-Term Leaders and the IBD 50.","content":"<p>Google parent <b>Alphabet</b>, computer maker <b>Dell Technologies</b>, steelmaker <b>Nucor</b>, Chip-equipment maker <b>Lam Research</b>&nbsp;and rental-home investor <b>Invitation Homes</b> are five stocks to watch this week near buy points.</p><p><blockquote>谷歌母公司<b>Alphabet</b>,计算机制造商<b>戴尔科技</b>,钢铁制造商<b>纽科尔</b>、芯片设备制造商<b>Lam研究</b>和出租屋投资者<b>邀请之家</b>本周有五只股票在买入点附近值得关注。</blockquote></p><p> The recent plunges in many hot software stocks amid renewed sector rotation underscores the importance of having diversified leaders in your portfolio. But with the market selling off sharply Friday, this time led by energy and financial stocks, investors should be cautious about new buys.</p><p><blockquote>最近，在行业轮换的背景下，许多热门软件股暴跌，凸显了投资组合中拥有多元化领导者的重要性。但随着周五市场大幅抛售，这一次是由能源和金融股引领的，投资者应该对新的买入持谨慎态度。</blockquote></p><p> Google, Nucor stock and Invitation Homes have pulled back modestly below buy points. Dell stock has bounced from its 50-day line, and Lam Research is closing in on a buy point.</p><p><blockquote>谷歌、纽柯股票和Invitation Homes已小幅回落至买入点以下。戴尔股价已从50日线反弹，Lam Research正在接近买入点。</blockquote></p><p> Google stock and Nucor are on IBD Leaderboard. GOOGL stock also is on IBD Long-Term Leaders and the IBD 50. Dell is on SwingTrader.</p><p><blockquote>谷歌股票和纽柯公司在IBD排行榜上。GOOGL股票也出现在IBD长期领导者和IBD 50指数中。戴尔在SwingTrader上。</blockquote></p><p> <h2><b>Google Stock</b></h2> Shares fell 4.5% to 2,845.64 in last week's stock market trading. Google stock closed just below its 50-day line and 10-week moving average. Shares have retreated modestly below a flat-base buy point of 2,925.17, according to MarketSmith. An alternate entry would be 3,019.43 from a four-weeks-tight pattern.</p><p><blockquote><h2><b>谷歌股票</b></h2>上周股市交易中，股价下跌4.5%，至2,845.64点。谷歌股价收盘略低于50日线和10周移动平均线。根据MarketSmith的数据，股价已小幅回落至2,925.17点以下。从四周的紧张模式来看，另一个进场点是3,019.43。</blockquote></p><p> Investors could use a rebound off the 50-day/10-week line as a possible entry. That's a good place to buy Long-Term Leaders stocks such as GOOGL.</p><p><blockquote>投资者可以利用50日/10周线的反弹作为可能的入场机会。这是购买GOOGL等长期领先股票的好地方。</blockquote></p><p> Google's relative strength line is going sideways, but is still near all-time highs. Its RS Rating is 88 out of a possible 99, while its EPS Rating is 98.</p><p><blockquote>谷歌的相对强弱线正在横盘整理，但仍接近历史高点。其RS评级为88分（满分99分），而EPS评级为98分。</blockquote></p><p> Google beat Wall Street estimates for the third quarter. It had EPS of $27.99 vs. views for $23.48. Sales came in at $65.12 billion vs. estimates of $63.34 billion.</p><p><blockquote>谷歌第三季度业绩超出华尔街预期。它的每股收益为27.99美元，而浏览量为23.48美元。销售额为651.2亿美元，而预期为633.4亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> In a call with investors on Oct. 26, CEO Ruth Porat said Apple's privacy settings changes, which now ask iPhone users for explicit permission to track them, had a modest impact on YouTube revenue.</p><p><blockquote>在10月26日与投资者举行的看涨期权上，首席执行官露丝·波拉特(Ruth Porat)表示，苹果的隐私设置变化（现在要求iPhone用户获得明确许可才能跟踪他们）对YouTube收入的影响不大。</blockquote></p><p> Google's ad revenue climbed 43% to $53.13 billion. That's up from $37.1 billion in the year-ago period and slightly higher than the prior quarter. YouTube ads rose to $7.21 billion, up from $5.04 billion last year.</p><p><blockquote>谷歌的广告收入增长43%，达到531.3亿美元。这高于去年同期的371亿美元，略高于上一季度。YouTube广告收入从去年的50.4亿美元增至72.1亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <h2><b>Dell Stock</b></h2> Dell stock rose 2.1% to 56.18 last week. Shares now have a flat base with a 58.53 buy point. Dell stock bounced from its 50-day line on Thursday, flashing an early buy signal on strong earnings. But shares pulled back modestly Friday. Investors might now want to wait for Dell to get above Thursday's high of 58, or simply wait for a breakout.</p><p><blockquote><h2><b>戴尔股票</b></h2>戴尔股价上周上涨2.1%至56.18点。目前股价基本持平，买入点为58.53。戴尔股价周四从50日线反弹，因强劲的盈利而发出早期买入信号。但周五股价小幅回落。投资者现在可能希望等待戴尔突破周四的高点58，或者只是等待突破。</blockquote></p><p> On Nov. 23, Dell reported third-quarter earnings of $2.37 a share, a year-over-year increase of 17%, on a 21% jump in sales to $28.39 billion, both above analyst views.&nbsp;</p><p><blockquote>11月23日，戴尔公布第三季度每股收益为2.37美元，同比增长17%，销售额增长21%至283.9亿美元，均高于分析师预期。</blockquote></p><p> It was Dell's best third quarter in its history, driven by growth in all business units, customer segments and geographies, as well as broad strength across commercial PCs, servers and storage, the company said in a written statement.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在一份书面声明中表示，这是戴尔历史上最好的第三季度，这得益于所有业务部门、客户群和地区的增长，以及商用PC、服务器和存储领域的广泛实力。</blockquote></p><p> Dell was Wednesday's IBD Stock Of The Day.</p><p><blockquote>戴尔是周三IBD当天的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, rival <b>HP</b> gapped out of a base Wednesday on its earnings.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，对手<b>惠普</b>周三其盈利脱离基数。</blockquote></p><p> <h2><b>Nucor Stock</b></h2> Shares rose 1% last week to 113.98. Nucor stock broke out past a cup-with-handle buy point of 119.42 on Nov. 22, but gave up most of that day's 6% gain by Friday's close. Its relative strength line is ticking downward but still near multiyear highs. Its RS Rating is 93, while its EPS Rating is 96.</p><p><blockquote><h2><b>纽柯股票</b></h2>上周股价上涨1%，至113.98点。纽柯公司股价在11月22日突破了119.42点的带柄杯买入点，但到周五收盘时回吐了当天6%的大部分涨幅。其相对强弱线正在向下滴答作响，但仍接近多年高点。其RS评级为93，而EPS评级为96。</blockquote></p><p> Steelmakers like Nucor have a had a stellar year supplying homebuilders in a record year and gearing up for massive infrastructure spending. IBD's Steel-Producers industry group has soared nearly 86% year to date.</p><p><blockquote>像纽柯这样的钢铁制造商在创纪录的一年里为房屋建筑商提供了出色的供应，并为大规模的基础设施支出做好了准备。IBD的钢铁生产商行业集团今年迄今已飙升近86%。</blockquote></p><p> Nucor has had four straight quarters of triple-digit earnings growth and four quarters in a row of accelerating sales growth.</p><p><blockquote>纽柯钢铁公司已连续四个季度实现三位数盈利增长，连续四个季度销售额加速增长。</blockquote></p><p> Rival <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STLD\">Steel Dynamics</a></b> broke out past a cup-with-handle buy point of 69.01 intraday on Nov. 22, but has since fallen below that buy point.</p><p><blockquote>对手<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STLD\">Steel Dynamics</a></b>11月22日盘中突破69.01的杯柄买入点，但此后跌破该买入点。</blockquote></p><p> <h2><b>Invitation Homes Stock</b></h2> INVH stock broke out past a cup-with-handle buy point of 41.93 on Nov. 24, but retreated just below it on Friday. INVH stock edged up 0.6% to 41.15 for the week.</p><p><blockquote><h2><b>邀请之家股票</b></h2>INVH股价于11月24日突破41.93点的杯柄买入点，但周五回落至略低于该点。INVH股价本周小幅上涨0.6%，至41.15点。</blockquote></p><p> Invitation Homes has an RS Rating of 93 and an EPS Rating of 96.</p><p><blockquote>Invitation Homes的RS评级为93，EPS评级为96。</blockquote></p><p> The recent housing boom isn't just helping homebuilders. As raw materials prices spike up and supplies remain tight, folks are delaying home buying or renting homes while renovations&nbsp;and new homes take longer to complete. That's pushed up rents across the board.</p><p><blockquote>最近的房地产繁荣不仅仅帮助了房屋建筑商。随着原材料价格飙升和供应仍然紧张，人们推迟购房或租房，而装修和新房需要更长的时间才能完成。这全面推高了租金。</blockquote></p><p> As a result, Invitation Homes, the largest owner of rental homes in the U.S., has seen soaring demand. The company, a real estate investment trust, or REIT, owns more than 80,000 homes, which it rents out.</p><p><blockquote>因此，美国最大的出租房屋所有者Invitation Homes的需求飙升。该公司是一家房地产投资信托基金(REIT)，拥有80,000多套房屋并出租。</blockquote></p><p> In October, Invitation Homes reported better-than-expected Q3 results. The company was able to raise rents by 11% amid the housing shortage.</p><p><blockquote>10月份，Invitation Homes公布了好于预期的第三季度业绩。在住房短缺的情况下，该公司能够将租金提高11%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <h2><b>Lam Research Stock</b></h2> Shares pulled back late last week, perhaps starting work on a handle. Chip-equipment maker Lam Research has been steadily moving toward a 673.90 buy point from a consolidation going back to early June or April.&nbsp;</p><p><blockquote><h2><b>Lam研究股票</b></h2>上周晚些时候，股价回落，或许是开始着手处理。芯片设备制造商Lam Research从6月初或4月的盘整中稳步迈向673.90买入点。</blockquote></p><p> Its relative strength line is rising again after several months of sideways movement. Lam's RS Rating is 80, while its EPS Rating is 94. The company has posted seven straight quarters of earnings and revenue growth, amid sky-high demand for its products across all industries.</p><p><blockquote>其相对强弱线在经过几个月的横盘整理后再次上升。Lam的RS评级为80，而EPS评级为94。由于各行业对其产品的需求极高，该公司已连续七个季度实现盈利和收入增长。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610449120050","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Google, Dell Lead Five Diverse Stocks Near Buy Points<blockquote>谷歌、戴尔引领五只多元化股票接近买入点</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoogle, Dell Lead Five Diverse Stocks Near Buy Points<blockquote>谷歌、戴尔引领五只多元化股票接近买入点</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">ADELIA CELLINI LINECKER</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-28 11:17</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Google parent <b>Alphabet</b>, computer maker <b>Dell Technologies</b>, steelmaker <b>Nucor</b>, Chip-equipment maker <b>Lam Research</b>&nbsp;and rental-home investor <b>Invitation Homes</b> are five stocks to watch this week near buy points.</p><p><blockquote>谷歌母公司<b>Alphabet</b>,计算机制造商<b>戴尔科技</b>,钢铁制造商<b>纽科尔</b>、芯片设备制造商<b>Lam研究</b>和出租屋投资者<b>邀请之家</b>本周有五只股票在买入点附近值得关注。</blockquote></p><p> The recent plunges in many hot software stocks amid renewed sector rotation underscores the importance of having diversified leaders in your portfolio. But with the market selling off sharply Friday, this time led by energy and financial stocks, investors should be cautious about new buys.</p><p><blockquote>最近，在行业轮换的背景下，许多热门软件股暴跌，凸显了投资组合中拥有多元化领导者的重要性。但随着周五市场大幅抛售，这一次是由能源和金融股引领的，投资者应该对新的买入持谨慎态度。</blockquote></p><p> Google, Nucor stock and Invitation Homes have pulled back modestly below buy points. Dell stock has bounced from its 50-day line, and Lam Research is closing in on a buy point.</p><p><blockquote>谷歌、纽柯股票和Invitation Homes已小幅回落至买入点以下。戴尔股价已从50日线反弹，Lam Research正在接近买入点。</blockquote></p><p> Google stock and Nucor are on IBD Leaderboard. GOOGL stock also is on IBD Long-Term Leaders and the IBD 50. Dell is on SwingTrader.</p><p><blockquote>谷歌股票和纽柯公司在IBD排行榜上。GOOGL股票也出现在IBD长期领导者和IBD 50指数中。戴尔在SwingTrader上。</blockquote></p><p> <h2><b>Google Stock</b></h2> Shares fell 4.5% to 2,845.64 in last week's stock market trading. Google stock closed just below its 50-day line and 10-week moving average. Shares have retreated modestly below a flat-base buy point of 2,925.17, according to MarketSmith. An alternate entry would be 3,019.43 from a four-weeks-tight pattern.</p><p><blockquote><h2><b>谷歌股票</b></h2>上周股市交易中，股价下跌4.5%，至2,845.64点。谷歌股价收盘略低于50日线和10周移动平均线。根据MarketSmith的数据，股价已小幅回落至2,925.17点以下。从四周的紧张模式来看，另一个进场点是3,019.43。</blockquote></p><p> Investors could use a rebound off the 50-day/10-week line as a possible entry. That's a good place to buy Long-Term Leaders stocks such as GOOGL.</p><p><blockquote>投资者可以利用50日/10周线的反弹作为可能的入场机会。这是购买GOOGL等长期领先股票的好地方。</blockquote></p><p> Google's relative strength line is going sideways, but is still near all-time highs. Its RS Rating is 88 out of a possible 99, while its EPS Rating is 98.</p><p><blockquote>谷歌的相对强弱线正在横盘整理，但仍接近历史高点。其RS评级为88分（满分99分），而EPS评级为98分。</blockquote></p><p> Google beat Wall Street estimates for the third quarter. It had EPS of $27.99 vs. views for $23.48. Sales came in at $65.12 billion vs. estimates of $63.34 billion.</p><p><blockquote>谷歌第三季度业绩超出华尔街预期。它的每股收益为27.99美元，而浏览量为23.48美元。销售额为651.2亿美元，而预期为633.4亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> In a call with investors on Oct. 26, CEO Ruth Porat said Apple's privacy settings changes, which now ask iPhone users for explicit permission to track them, had a modest impact on YouTube revenue.</p><p><blockquote>在10月26日与投资者举行的看涨期权上，首席执行官露丝·波拉特(Ruth Porat)表示，苹果的隐私设置变化（现在要求iPhone用户获得明确许可才能跟踪他们）对YouTube收入的影响不大。</blockquote></p><p> Google's ad revenue climbed 43% to $53.13 billion. That's up from $37.1 billion in the year-ago period and slightly higher than the prior quarter. YouTube ads rose to $7.21 billion, up from $5.04 billion last year.</p><p><blockquote>谷歌的广告收入增长43%，达到531.3亿美元。这高于去年同期的371亿美元，略高于上一季度。YouTube广告收入从去年的50.4亿美元增至72.1亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <h2><b>Dell Stock</b></h2> Dell stock rose 2.1% to 56.18 last week. Shares now have a flat base with a 58.53 buy point. Dell stock bounced from its 50-day line on Thursday, flashing an early buy signal on strong earnings. But shares pulled back modestly Friday. Investors might now want to wait for Dell to get above Thursday's high of 58, or simply wait for a breakout.</p><p><blockquote><h2><b>戴尔股票</b></h2>戴尔股价上周上涨2.1%至56.18点。目前股价基本持平，买入点为58.53。戴尔股价周四从50日线反弹，因强劲的盈利而发出早期买入信号。但周五股价小幅回落。投资者现在可能希望等待戴尔突破周四的高点58，或者只是等待突破。</blockquote></p><p> On Nov. 23, Dell reported third-quarter earnings of $2.37 a share, a year-over-year increase of 17%, on a 21% jump in sales to $28.39 billion, both above analyst views.&nbsp;</p><p><blockquote>11月23日，戴尔公布第三季度每股收益为2.37美元，同比增长17%，销售额增长21%至283.9亿美元，均高于分析师预期。</blockquote></p><p> It was Dell's best third quarter in its history, driven by growth in all business units, customer segments and geographies, as well as broad strength across commercial PCs, servers and storage, the company said in a written statement.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在一份书面声明中表示，这是戴尔历史上最好的第三季度，这得益于所有业务部门、客户群和地区的增长，以及商用PC、服务器和存储领域的广泛实力。</blockquote></p><p> Dell was Wednesday's IBD Stock Of The Day.</p><p><blockquote>戴尔是周三IBD当天的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, rival <b>HP</b> gapped out of a base Wednesday on its earnings.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，对手<b>惠普</b>周三其盈利脱离基数。</blockquote></p><p> <h2><b>Nucor Stock</b></h2> Shares rose 1% last week to 113.98. Nucor stock broke out past a cup-with-handle buy point of 119.42 on Nov. 22, but gave up most of that day's 6% gain by Friday's close. Its relative strength line is ticking downward but still near multiyear highs. Its RS Rating is 93, while its EPS Rating is 96.</p><p><blockquote><h2><b>纽柯股票</b></h2>上周股价上涨1%，至113.98点。纽柯公司股价在11月22日突破了119.42点的带柄杯买入点，但到周五收盘时回吐了当天6%的大部分涨幅。其相对强弱线正在向下滴答作响，但仍接近多年高点。其RS评级为93，而EPS评级为96。</blockquote></p><p> Steelmakers like Nucor have a had a stellar year supplying homebuilders in a record year and gearing up for massive infrastructure spending. IBD's Steel-Producers industry group has soared nearly 86% year to date.</p><p><blockquote>像纽柯这样的钢铁制造商在创纪录的一年里为房屋建筑商提供了出色的供应，并为大规模的基础设施支出做好了准备。IBD的钢铁生产商行业集团今年迄今已飙升近86%。</blockquote></p><p> Nucor has had four straight quarters of triple-digit earnings growth and four quarters in a row of accelerating sales growth.</p><p><blockquote>纽柯钢铁公司已连续四个季度实现三位数盈利增长，连续四个季度销售额加速增长。</blockquote></p><p> Rival <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STLD\">Steel Dynamics</a></b> broke out past a cup-with-handle buy point of 69.01 intraday on Nov. 22, but has since fallen below that buy point.</p><p><blockquote>对手<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STLD\">Steel Dynamics</a></b>11月22日盘中突破69.01的杯柄买入点，但此后跌破该买入点。</blockquote></p><p> <h2><b>Invitation Homes Stock</b></h2> INVH stock broke out past a cup-with-handle buy point of 41.93 on Nov. 24, but retreated just below it on Friday. INVH stock edged up 0.6% to 41.15 for the week.</p><p><blockquote><h2><b>邀请之家股票</b></h2>INVH股价于11月24日突破41.93点的杯柄买入点，但周五回落至略低于该点。INVH股价本周小幅上涨0.6%，至41.15点。</blockquote></p><p> Invitation Homes has an RS Rating of 93 and an EPS Rating of 96.</p><p><blockquote>Invitation Homes的RS评级为93，EPS评级为96。</blockquote></p><p> The recent housing boom isn't just helping homebuilders. As raw materials prices spike up and supplies remain tight, folks are delaying home buying or renting homes while renovations&nbsp;and new homes take longer to complete. That's pushed up rents across the board.</p><p><blockquote>最近的房地产繁荣不仅仅帮助了房屋建筑商。随着原材料价格飙升和供应仍然紧张，人们推迟购房或租房，而装修和新房需要更长的时间才能完成。这全面推高了租金。</blockquote></p><p> As a result, Invitation Homes, the largest owner of rental homes in the U.S., has seen soaring demand. The company, a real estate investment trust, or REIT, owns more than 80,000 homes, which it rents out.</p><p><blockquote>因此，美国最大的出租房屋所有者Invitation Homes的需求飙升。该公司是一家房地产投资信托基金(REIT)，拥有80,000多套房屋并出租。</blockquote></p><p> In October, Invitation Homes reported better-than-expected Q3 results. The company was able to raise rents by 11% amid the housing shortage.</p><p><blockquote>10月份，Invitation Homes公布了好于预期的第三季度业绩。在住房短缺的情况下，该公司能够将租金提高11%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <h2><b>Lam Research Stock</b></h2> Shares pulled back late last week, perhaps starting work on a handle. Chip-equipment maker Lam Research has been steadily moving toward a 673.90 buy point from a consolidation going back to early June or April.&nbsp;</p><p><blockquote><h2><b>Lam研究股票</b></h2>上周晚些时候，股价回落，或许是开始着手处理。芯片设备制造商Lam Research从6月初或4月的盘整中稳步迈向673.90买入点。</blockquote></p><p> Its relative strength line is rising again after several months of sideways movement. Lam's RS Rating is 80, while its EPS Rating is 94. The company has posted seven straight quarters of earnings and revenue growth, amid sky-high demand for its products across all industries.</p><p><blockquote>其相对强弱线在经过几个月的横盘整理后再次上升。Lam的RS评级为80，而EPS评级为94。由于各行业对其产品的需求极高，该公司已连续七个季度实现盈利和收入增长。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.investors.com/news/google-dell-lead-five-diverse-stocks-near-buy-points/?src=A00519A=aflTigerBrokers\">ADELIA CELLINI LINECKER</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NUE":"纽柯钢铁","LRCX":"拉姆研究","DELL":"戴尔","INVH":"Invitation Homes Inc.","GOOG":"谷歌"},"source_url":"https://www.investors.com/news/google-dell-lead-five-diverse-stocks-near-buy-points/?src=A00519A=aflTigerBrokers","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2186328547","content_text":"Google parent Alphabet, computer maker Dell Technologies, steelmaker Nucor, Chip-equipment maker Lam Research and rental-home investor Invitation Homes are five stocks to watch this week near buy points.\nThe recent plunges in many hot software stocks amid renewed sector rotation underscores the importance of having diversified leaders in your portfolio. But with the market selling off sharply Friday, this time led by energy and financial stocks, investors should be cautious about new buys.\nGoogle, Nucor stock and Invitation Homes have pulled back modestly below buy points. Dell stock has bounced from its 50-day line, and Lam Research is closing in on a buy point.\nGoogle stock and Nucor are on IBD Leaderboard. GOOGL stock also is on IBD Long-Term Leaders and the IBD 50. Dell is on SwingTrader.\nGoogle Stock\nShares fell 4.5% to 2,845.64 in last week's stock market trading. Google stock closed just below its 50-day line and 10-week moving average. Shares have retreated modestly below a flat-base buy point of 2,925.17, according to MarketSmith. An alternate entry would be 3,019.43 from a four-weeks-tight pattern.\nInvestors could use a rebound off the 50-day/10-week line as a possible entry. That's a good place to buy Long-Term Leaders stocks such as GOOGL.\nGoogle's relative strength line is going sideways, but is still near all-time highs. Its RS Rating is 88 out of a possible 99, while its EPS Rating is 98.\nGoogle beat Wall Street estimates for the third quarter. It had EPS of $27.99 vs. views for $23.48. Sales came in at $65.12 billion vs. estimates of $63.34 billion.\nIn a call with investors on Oct. 26, CEO Ruth Porat said Apple's privacy settings changes, which now ask iPhone users for explicit permission to track them, had a modest impact on YouTube revenue.\nGoogle's ad revenue climbed 43% to $53.13 billion. That's up from $37.1 billion in the year-ago period and slightly higher than the prior quarter. YouTube ads rose to $7.21 billion, up from $5.04 billion last year.\nDell Stock\nDell stock rose 2.1% to 56.18 last week. Shares now have a flat base with a 58.53 buy point. Dell stock bounced from its 50-day line on Thursday, flashing an early buy signal on strong earnings. But shares pulled back modestly Friday. Investors might now want to wait for Dell to get above Thursday's high of 58, or simply wait for a breakout.\nOn Nov. 23, Dell reported third-quarter earnings of $2.37 a share, a year-over-year increase of 17%, on a 21% jump in sales to $28.39 billion, both above analyst views. \nIt was Dell's best third quarter in its history, driven by growth in all business units, customer segments and geographies, as well as broad strength across commercial PCs, servers and storage, the company said in a written statement.\nDell was Wednesday's IBD Stock Of The Day.\nMeanwhile, rival HP gapped out of a base Wednesday on its earnings.\nNucor Stock\nShares rose 1% last week to 113.98. Nucor stock broke out past a cup-with-handle buy point of 119.42 on Nov. 22, but gave up most of that day's 6% gain by Friday's close. Its relative strength line is ticking downward but still near multiyear highs. Its RS Rating is 93, while its EPS Rating is 96.\nSteelmakers like Nucor have a had a stellar year supplying homebuilders in a record year and gearing up for massive infrastructure spending. IBD's Steel-Producers industry group has soared nearly 86% year to date.\nNucor has had four straight quarters of triple-digit earnings growth and four quarters in a row of accelerating sales growth.\nRival Steel Dynamics broke out past a cup-with-handle buy point of 69.01 intraday on Nov. 22, but has since fallen below that buy point.\nInvitation Homes Stock\nINVH stock broke out past a cup-with-handle buy point of 41.93 on Nov. 24, but retreated just below it on Friday. INVH stock edged up 0.6% to 41.15 for the week.\nInvitation Homes has an RS Rating of 93 and an EPS Rating of 96.\nThe recent housing boom isn't just helping homebuilders. As raw materials prices spike up and supplies remain tight, folks are delaying home buying or renting homes while renovations and new homes take longer to complete. That's pushed up rents across the board.\nAs a result, Invitation Homes, the largest owner of rental homes in the U.S., has seen soaring demand. The company, a real estate investment trust, or REIT, owns more than 80,000 homes, which it rents out.\nIn October, Invitation Homes reported better-than-expected Q3 results. The company was able to raise rents by 11% amid the housing shortage.\nLam Research Stock\nShares pulled back late last week, perhaps starting work on a handle. Chip-equipment maker Lam Research has been steadily moving toward a 673.90 buy point from a consolidation going back to early June or April. \nIts relative strength line is rising again after several months of sideways movement. Lam's RS Rating is 80, while its EPS Rating is 94. The company has posted seven straight quarters of earnings and revenue growth, amid sky-high demand for its products across all industries.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOOG":0.9,"INVH":0.9,"DELL":0.9,"LRCX":0.9,"NUE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1997,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":872316160,"gmtCreate":1637421509413,"gmtModify":1637421509580,"author":{"id":"3579599009721057","authorId":"3579599009721057","name":"leddjy","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579599009721057","authorIdStr":"3579599009721057"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Happy weekend all!","listText":"Happy weekend all!","text":"Happy weekend all!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/872316160","repostId":"2184842262","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3555,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":873327059,"gmtCreate":1636862686672,"gmtModify":1636862686859,"author":{"id":"3579599009721057","authorId":"3579599009721057","name":"leddjy","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579599009721057","authorIdStr":"3579599009721057"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Happy weekend all!","listText":"Happy weekend all!","text":"Happy weekend all!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873327059","repostId":"1103944030","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2114,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":842570306,"gmtCreate":1636208702280,"gmtModify":1636208702716,"author":{"id":"3579599009721057","authorId":"3579599009721057","name":"leddjy","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579599009721057","authorIdStr":"3579599009721057"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Happy weekend all!","listText":"Happy weekend all!","text":"Happy weekend all!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/842570306","repostId":"1173813098","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2171,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":840150778,"gmtCreate":1635609469024,"gmtModify":1635609469191,"author":{"id":"3579599009721057","authorId":"3579599009721057","name":"leddjy","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579599009721057","authorIdStr":"3579599009721057"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Happy weekend all!","listText":"Happy weekend all!","text":"Happy weekend all!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/840150778","repostId":"1130019043","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130019043","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1635579123,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1130019043?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-30 15:32","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Top Wall Street Strategist Sees a Fast 10% Q4 Correction Coming<blockquote>华尔街顶级策略师预计第四季度将出现10%的快速调整</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130019043","media":"24/7 wall street","summary":"A plethora of acronyms are used in the financial world for a wide variety of items. Most investors a","content":"<p>A plethora of acronyms are used in the financial world for a wide variety of items. Most investors are well aware of the FAANG stocks, which are the massive tech monsters that rule the market. In addition, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the acronyms used to describe the constant rise in the stock markets, especially when the “buy the dip” crowd takes control after sizable selling, is FOMO, or fear of missing out.</p><p><blockquote>在金融界，大量的首字母缩略词用于各种各样的项目。大多数投资者都很清楚FAANG股票，它们是统治市场的大型科技巨头。此外，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>FOMO是用来描述股市持续上涨的首字母缩略词之一，尤其是当“逢低买入”人群在大量抛售后控制局面时。</blockquote></p><p> One of the very newest acronyms to hit the market speak lexicon is TINA. That stands for “there is no alternative,” which is an explanation for the constant ascent of the stock market. Basically what it means is that, due to very low yields on bonds and cash, especially with mounting inflation, owning stocks (especially those that pay solid and predictable dividends) is the only way to stay ahead of the game.</p><p><blockquote>TINA是市场词汇中最新出现的首字母缩略词之一。这代表“别无选择”，这是对股市不断上涨的解释。基本上，这意味着，由于债券和现金的收益率非常低，特别是在通货膨胀加剧的情况下，持有股票（尤其是那些支付稳定且可预测股息的股票）是保持领先地位的唯一途径。</blockquote></p><p> If any one equity strategist across Wall Street has been right on the money over the past few years, it is Stifel’s head of Institutional Equity Strategy, Barry Bannister, and he is advising clients that we could be poised to have a TINA trap sell-off. We have covered his outstanding and prescient calls for years, and generally when he talks, we listen. Those who did so at the height of the sell-off in 2020 posted some massive gains.</p><p><blockquote>如果说过去几年华尔街有哪一位股票策略师是正确的，那就是Stifel的机构股票策略主管巴里·班尼斯特(Barry Bannister)，他向客户建议，我们可能会遭遇TINA陷阱抛售。多年来，我们一直在报道他杰出而有先见之明的评级，通常当他说话时，我们会倾听。那些在2020年抛售最严重的时候这样做的人取得了一些巨大的收益。</blockquote></p><p> On March 19, 2020, just four short days before the final surge of selling and investor capitulation on March 23, Bannister and his team dropped a prediction for a relief rally that would carry the S&amp;P 500 to the 2,750 level by April 30. On March 23, the index hit an intraday low of 2,191, and it closed at 2,237.</p><p><blockquote>2020年3月19日，就在3月23日抛售和投资者投降最后激增的短短四天前，班尼斯特和他的团队放弃了对缓解性反弹的预测，该反弹将使标普500在4月30日之前升至2,750点。3月23日，该指数盘中最低触及2191点，收盘于2237点。</blockquote></p><p> We covered that incredibly bold prediction then, and while some were very skeptical of the call, Bannister made the prerequisite financial media rounds at the time giving his firm’s rationale for the prediction. In early April of 2020 as a surge of alarming news on the COVID-19 pandemic flooded the airwaves, Stifel came out and defended the call, telling clients to stand their ground. In the middle of April, as the rest of Wall Street was finally on board, Stifel raised the end-of-April target to 2,950. On April 30, in line with the laser-like call from Stifel, the S&amp;P 500 closed at 2,912 after hitting an intraday high of 2,930 and after trading to 2,950 level the day before. In late May of 2020, Stifel once again raised the price target on the S&amp;P 500 to 3,250 by August 30.</p><p><blockquote>我们当时报道了这一令人难以置信的大胆预测，虽然有些人对看涨期权非常怀疑，但班尼斯特当时在金融媒体上发表了先决条件，给出了他的公司做出这一预测的理由。2020年4月初，随着有关COVID-19大流行的令人震惊的消息充斥电视广播，Stifel站出来为看涨期权辩护，告诉客户坚持自己的立场。4月中旬，随着华尔街其他人终于加入进来，Stifel将4月底的目标上调至2,950点。4月30日，与Stifel激光般的看涨期权一致，标普500在触及2930点的盘中高点并在前一天交易至2950点后收于2912点。2020年5月下旬，Stifel再次将标普500的目标价上调至8月30日的3,250点。</blockquote></p><p> Once again, Bannister sees storm clouds on the horizon, and with good reason. Everything from stocks to gold, Treasury debt and oil and have been pushed higher. This is a result of a unique combination of the FOMO worries and the TINA mentality. In a new research report, Bannister and his team feel that a lightning-fast 10% correction could occur in the remaining months of the fourth quarter. The report noted this:</p><p><blockquote>班尼斯特又一次看到了地平线上的乌云，这是有充分理由的。从股票到黄金、国债和石油，一切都被推高。这是FOMO担忧和TINA心态独特结合的结果。在一份新的研究报告中，班尼斯特和他的团队认为，第四季度剩余几个月可能会出现闪电般的10%修正。报告指出：</blockquote></p><p>   Near-term in the fourth quarter of 2021, we note that equal-weighted cyclicals vs. defensives are very near the point at which P/E-driven S&amp;P 500 corrections occur, and we see downside equating to the S&amp;P 500 falling from 4,535 currently to ~4,000 (prior view 3,800), around a 10% correction in the fourth quarter as we see mid-cycle risks.    Our target and concerns are based on slowing global liquidity and tighter financial conditions with a gradual but unwavering Fed exit (especially after the Fed Chair is named). Sure, the Fed-inflated TINA trade “There is No Alternative” (to stocks) exists, but everyone goes into the boxing ring “with a plan” to buy-the-dip…until they get hit with a double-digit correction.    Looking out to mid-2022 through 2025, we observe that value vs. growth tracks the S&amp;P 500 divided by commodity index ratio, which soared in 2020 (favored growth stocks), fell in 2021 (favors value) and may bounce in mid-2022 (after the S&amp;P 500 corrects) favoring growth, post-dip. We also show that despite the Quantitative Easing taper the S&amp;P 500 could hit 5,200 by Jun-2022 (TINA’s last gasp?). Moreover, we see no actual bear market, which would be a 20% or more decline until fed funds is 1% (4 rate hikes), which fed funds futures indicate does not occur until 2024. </p><p><blockquote>近期在2021年第四季度，我们注意到等权重周期性股票与防御性股票非常接近市盈率驱动的标普500修正发生的点，我们认为下行相当于标普500从目前的4,535点下跌至约4,000点（之前的观点为3,800点），由于我们看到了中期周期风险，第四季度的修正约为10%。我们的目标和担忧基于全球流动性放缓和金融状况收紧，美联储将逐步但坚定不移地退出（尤其是在美联储主席任命之后）。当然，美联储膨胀的TINA交易“别无选择”（股票）是存在的，但每个人都“带着一个计划”进入拳击场，以逢低买入……直到他们受到两位数的修正。展望2022年中期至2025年，我们观察到价值与增长遵循标普500除以大宗商品指数比率，该比率在2020年飙升（青睐成长股），在2021年下跌（青睐价值股），并可能在2022年中期反弹（标普500修正后）有利于增长，下跌后。我们还表明，尽管量化宽松缩减，到2022年6月，标普500仍可能达到5,200（TINA的最后一口气？）.此外，我们没有看到真正的熊市，在联邦基金利率达到1%（加息4次）之前，熊市将下跌20%或更多，联邦基金期货表明这种情况要到2024年才会发生。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1620372341666","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Top Wall Street Strategist Sees a Fast 10% Q4 Correction Coming<blockquote>华尔街顶级策略师预计第四季度将出现10%的快速调整</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTop Wall Street Strategist Sees a Fast 10% Q4 Correction Coming<blockquote>华尔街顶级策略师预计第四季度将出现10%的快速调整</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">24/7 wall street</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-30 15:32</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>A plethora of acronyms are used in the financial world for a wide variety of items. Most investors are well aware of the FAANG stocks, which are the massive tech monsters that rule the market. In addition, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the acronyms used to describe the constant rise in the stock markets, especially when the “buy the dip” crowd takes control after sizable selling, is FOMO, or fear of missing out.</p><p><blockquote>在金融界，大量的首字母缩略词用于各种各样的项目。大多数投资者都很清楚FAANG股票，它们是统治市场的大型科技巨头。此外，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>FOMO是用来描述股市持续上涨的首字母缩略词之一，尤其是当“逢低买入”人群在大量抛售后控制局面时。</blockquote></p><p> One of the very newest acronyms to hit the market speak lexicon is TINA. That stands for “there is no alternative,” which is an explanation for the constant ascent of the stock market. Basically what it means is that, due to very low yields on bonds and cash, especially with mounting inflation, owning stocks (especially those that pay solid and predictable dividends) is the only way to stay ahead of the game.</p><p><blockquote>TINA是市场词汇中最新出现的首字母缩略词之一。这代表“别无选择”，这是对股市不断上涨的解释。基本上，这意味着，由于债券和现金的收益率非常低，特别是在通货膨胀加剧的情况下，持有股票（尤其是那些支付稳定且可预测股息的股票）是保持领先地位的唯一途径。</blockquote></p><p> If any one equity strategist across Wall Street has been right on the money over the past few years, it is Stifel’s head of Institutional Equity Strategy, Barry Bannister, and he is advising clients that we could be poised to have a TINA trap sell-off. We have covered his outstanding and prescient calls for years, and generally when he talks, we listen. Those who did so at the height of the sell-off in 2020 posted some massive gains.</p><p><blockquote>如果说过去几年华尔街有哪一位股票策略师是正确的，那就是Stifel的机构股票策略主管巴里·班尼斯特(Barry Bannister)，他向客户建议，我们可能会遭遇TINA陷阱抛售。多年来，我们一直在报道他杰出而有先见之明的评级，通常当他说话时，我们会倾听。那些在2020年抛售最严重的时候这样做的人取得了一些巨大的收益。</blockquote></p><p> On March 19, 2020, just four short days before the final surge of selling and investor capitulation on March 23, Bannister and his team dropped a prediction for a relief rally that would carry the S&amp;P 500 to the 2,750 level by April 30. On March 23, the index hit an intraday low of 2,191, and it closed at 2,237.</p><p><blockquote>2020年3月19日，就在3月23日抛售和投资者投降最后激增的短短四天前，班尼斯特和他的团队放弃了对缓解性反弹的预测，该反弹将使标普500在4月30日之前升至2,750点。3月23日，该指数盘中最低触及2191点，收盘于2237点。</blockquote></p><p> We covered that incredibly bold prediction then, and while some were very skeptical of the call, Bannister made the prerequisite financial media rounds at the time giving his firm’s rationale for the prediction. In early April of 2020 as a surge of alarming news on the COVID-19 pandemic flooded the airwaves, Stifel came out and defended the call, telling clients to stand their ground. In the middle of April, as the rest of Wall Street was finally on board, Stifel raised the end-of-April target to 2,950. On April 30, in line with the laser-like call from Stifel, the S&amp;P 500 closed at 2,912 after hitting an intraday high of 2,930 and after trading to 2,950 level the day before. In late May of 2020, Stifel once again raised the price target on the S&amp;P 500 to 3,250 by August 30.</p><p><blockquote>我们当时报道了这一令人难以置信的大胆预测，虽然有些人对看涨期权非常怀疑，但班尼斯特当时在金融媒体上发表了先决条件，给出了他的公司做出这一预测的理由。2020年4月初，随着有关COVID-19大流行的令人震惊的消息充斥电视广播，Stifel站出来为看涨期权辩护，告诉客户坚持自己的立场。4月中旬，随着华尔街其他人终于加入进来，Stifel将4月底的目标上调至2,950点。4月30日，与Stifel激光般的看涨期权一致，标普500在触及2930点的盘中高点并在前一天交易至2950点后收于2912点。2020年5月下旬，Stifel再次将标普500的目标价上调至8月30日的3,250点。</blockquote></p><p> Once again, Bannister sees storm clouds on the horizon, and with good reason. Everything from stocks to gold, Treasury debt and oil and have been pushed higher. This is a result of a unique combination of the FOMO worries and the TINA mentality. In a new research report, Bannister and his team feel that a lightning-fast 10% correction could occur in the remaining months of the fourth quarter. The report noted this:</p><p><blockquote>班尼斯特又一次看到了地平线上的乌云，这是有充分理由的。从股票到黄金、国债和石油，一切都被推高。这是FOMO担忧和TINA心态独特结合的结果。在一份新的研究报告中，班尼斯特和他的团队认为，第四季度剩余几个月可能会出现闪电般的10%修正。报告指出：</blockquote></p><p>   Near-term in the fourth quarter of 2021, we note that equal-weighted cyclicals vs. defensives are very near the point at which P/E-driven S&amp;P 500 corrections occur, and we see downside equating to the S&amp;P 500 falling from 4,535 currently to ~4,000 (prior view 3,800), around a 10% correction in the fourth quarter as we see mid-cycle risks.    Our target and concerns are based on slowing global liquidity and tighter financial conditions with a gradual but unwavering Fed exit (especially after the Fed Chair is named). Sure, the Fed-inflated TINA trade “There is No Alternative” (to stocks) exists, but everyone goes into the boxing ring “with a plan” to buy-the-dip…until they get hit with a double-digit correction.    Looking out to mid-2022 through 2025, we observe that value vs. growth tracks the S&amp;P 500 divided by commodity index ratio, which soared in 2020 (favored growth stocks), fell in 2021 (favors value) and may bounce in mid-2022 (after the S&amp;P 500 corrects) favoring growth, post-dip. We also show that despite the Quantitative Easing taper the S&amp;P 500 could hit 5,200 by Jun-2022 (TINA’s last gasp?). Moreover, we see no actual bear market, which would be a 20% or more decline until fed funds is 1% (4 rate hikes), which fed funds futures indicate does not occur until 2024. </p><p><blockquote>近期在2021年第四季度，我们注意到等权重周期性股票与防御性股票非常接近市盈率驱动的标普500修正发生的点，我们认为下行相当于标普500从目前的4,535点下跌至约4,000点（之前的观点为3,800点），由于我们看到了中期周期风险，第四季度的修正约为10%。我们的目标和担忧基于全球流动性放缓和金融状况收紧，美联储将逐步但坚定不移地退出（尤其是在美联储主席任命之后）。当然，美联储膨胀的TINA交易“别无选择”（股票）是存在的，但每个人都“带着一个计划”进入拳击场，以逢低买入……直到他们受到两位数的修正。展望2022年中期至2025年，我们观察到价值与增长遵循标普500除以大宗商品指数比率，该比率在2020年飙升（青睐成长股），在2021年下跌（青睐价值股），并可能在2022年中期反弹（标普500修正后）有利于增长，下跌后。我们还表明，尽管量化宽松缩减，到2022年6月，标普500仍可能达到5,200（TINA的最后一口气？）.此外，我们没有看到真正的熊市，在联邦基金利率达到1%（加息4次）之前，熊市将下跌20%或更多，联邦基金期货表明这种情况要到2024年才会发生。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://247wallst.com/investing/2021/10/29/top-wall-street-strategist-sees-a-fast-10-q4-correction-coming/\">24/7 wall street</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://247wallst.com/investing/2021/10/29/top-wall-street-strategist-sees-a-fast-10-q4-correction-coming/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130019043","content_text":"A plethora of acronyms are used in the financial world for a wide variety of items. Most investors are well aware of the FAANG stocks, which are the massive tech monsters that rule the market. In addition, one of the acronyms used to describe the constant rise in the stock markets, especially when the “buy the dip” crowd takes control after sizable selling, is FOMO, or fear of missing out.\nOne of the very newest acronyms to hit the market speak lexicon is TINA. That stands for “there is no alternative,” which is an explanation for the constant ascent of the stock market. Basically what it means is that, due to very low yields on bonds and cash, especially with mounting inflation, owning stocks (especially those that pay solid and predictable dividends) is the only way to stay ahead of the game.\nIf any one equity strategist across Wall Street has been right on the money over the past few years, it is Stifel’s head of Institutional Equity Strategy, Barry Bannister, and he is advising clients that we could be poised to have a TINA trap sell-off. We have covered his outstanding and prescient calls for years, and generally when he talks, we listen. Those who did so at the height of the sell-off in 2020 posted some massive gains.\nOn March 19, 2020, just four short days before the final surge of selling and investor capitulation on March 23, Bannister and his team dropped a prediction for a relief rally that would carry the S&P 500 to the 2,750 level by April 30. On March 23, the index hit an intraday low of 2,191, and it closed at 2,237.\nWe covered that incredibly bold prediction then, and while some were very skeptical of the call, Bannister made the prerequisite financial media rounds at the time giving his firm’s rationale for the prediction. In early April of 2020 as a surge of alarming news on the COVID-19 pandemic flooded the airwaves, Stifel came out and defended the call, telling clients to stand their ground. In the middle of April, as the rest of Wall Street was finally on board, Stifel raised the end-of-April target to 2,950. On April 30, in line with the laser-like call from Stifel, the S&P 500 closed at 2,912 after hitting an intraday high of 2,930 and after trading to 2,950 level the day before. In late May of 2020, Stifel once again raised the price target on the S&P 500 to 3,250 by August 30.\nOnce again, Bannister sees storm clouds on the horizon, and with good reason. Everything from stocks to gold, Treasury debt and oil and have been pushed higher. This is a result of a unique combination of the FOMO worries and the TINA mentality. In a new research report, Bannister and his team feel that a lightning-fast 10% correction could occur in the remaining months of the fourth quarter. The report noted this:\n\n Near-term in the fourth quarter of 2021, we note that equal-weighted cyclicals vs. defensives are very near the point at which P/E-driven S&P 500 corrections occur, and we see downside equating to the S&P 500 falling from 4,535 currently to ~4,000 (prior view 3,800), around a 10% correction in the fourth quarter as we see mid-cycle risks.\n\n\n Our target and concerns are based on slowing global liquidity and tighter financial conditions with a gradual but unwavering Fed exit (especially after the Fed Chair is named). Sure, the Fed-inflated TINA trade “There is No Alternative” (to stocks) exists, but everyone goes into the boxing ring “with a plan” to buy-the-dip…until they get hit with a double-digit correction.\n\n\n Looking out to mid-2022 through 2025, we observe that value vs. growth tracks the S&P 500 divided by commodity index ratio, which soared in 2020 (favored growth stocks), fell in 2021 (favors value) and may bounce in mid-2022 (after the S&P 500 corrects) favoring growth, post-dip. We also show that despite the Quantitative Easing taper the S&P 500 could hit 5,200 by Jun-2022 (TINA’s last gasp?). Moreover, we see no actual bear market, which would be a 20% or more decline until fed funds is 1% (4 rate hikes), which fed funds futures indicate does not occur until 2024.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2263,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":827699339,"gmtCreate":1634453954136,"gmtModify":1634453954524,"author":{"id":"3579599009721057","authorId":"3579599009721057","name":"leddjy","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579599009721057","authorIdStr":"3579599009721057"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Have a good Sunday!","listText":"Have a good Sunday!","text":"Have a good Sunday!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/827699339","repostId":"2175146556","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2348,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":821112144,"gmtCreate":1633705058218,"gmtModify":1633705063879,"author":{"id":"3579599009721057","authorId":"3579599009721057","name":"leddjy","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579599009721057","authorIdStr":"3579599009721057"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Happy weekend!","listText":"Happy weekend!","text":"Happy weekend!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821112144","repostId":"1133780035","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133780035","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633704297,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1133780035?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-08 22:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"6 reasons this is a fresh multiyear bull market and 6 stocks in the surprising sector you should favor<blockquote>这是一个新的多年牛市的6个原因以及您应该青睐的令人惊讶的行业中的6只股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133780035","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Stock-market pessimism and excess consumer buying power point to retail stocks.\n\nNothing like a litt","content":"<p>  <b>Stock-market pessimism and excess consumer buying power point to retail stocks.</b>  Nothing like a little October turbulence to help the market’s weak hands get in touch with their inner bears.</p><p><blockquote><b>股市悲观情绪和消费者过度购买给零售股带来了动力。</b>没有什么比十月的一点动荡更能帮助市场的弱者与内心的空头取得联系了。</blockquote></p><p> But don’t let their negativity rub off on you. We’re still near the beginning of what will be a multiyear bull market. Here are six reasons to buy stocks now, and six names to consider in one of the best sectors to own at the moment.</p><p><blockquote>但是不要让他们的消极影响到你。我们仍接近多年牛市的开始。以下是现在购买股票的六个理由，以及目前最值得考虑的行业之一的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Sentiment has gotten bearish enough</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.情绪已经变得足够悲观</b></blockquote></p><p> I regularly track investor sentiment in my stock letter (details and link in bio below) to make contrarian “calls” on the market. While most of your money should be in long-term holdings, timing entries when most people are bearish gives you an edge. That is the case now. Sentiment is not extremely negative, but it fell enough this week to trigger a buy signal in my system.</p><p><blockquote>我定期在我的股票信中跟踪投资者情绪（详细信息和链接见下面的简历），以在市场上进行逆向“评级”。虽然你的大部分资金应该长期持有，但在大多数人看跌的时候入场会给你带来优势。现在就是这样。情绪并不是极其负面，但本周下跌足以在我的系统中触发买入信号。</blockquote></p><p> It’s also worth pointing out that major media figures turned pretty negative this week, another good contrarian signal. (I won’t name names.) And the fact that their negativity is a bullish signal in my book doesn’t mean I think they are dense. It’s just that high-profile media commentators are consensus sponges. It’s an occupational hazard – which we can use to our advantage as investors.</p><p><blockquote>还值得指出的是，主要媒体数据本周变得相当负面，这是另一个良好的逆向信号。（我就不指名道姓了。）而他们的消极在我的书里是看涨信号的事实，并不意味着我认为他们是密集的。只是高调的媒体评论员是共识海绵。这是一种职业危害——作为投资者，我们可以利用这一点。</blockquote></p><p> Pick your favorite popular financial media talking heads, then do the opposite whenever they turn consistently negative — or positive.</p><p><blockquote>挑选你最喜欢的流行财经媒体发言人，然后在他们持续消极或积极时反其道而行之。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Seasonality is in our favor</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.季节性对我们有利</b></blockquote></p><p> The worst month for stocks is October, and the weakest days are Oct. 10 and Oct. 11. Then this bleak month is followed by the seasonally strong January-May phase when the market is bolstered by new money coming in. In between, November and December can be strong as stocks rebound from October weakness and the end of the mutual-fund tax-loss selling season. That’s finished at the end of October.</p><p><blockquote>股市最糟糕的月份是10月，最疲软的日子是10月10日和10月11日。然后，这个惨淡的月份之后是季节性强劲的1月至5月阶段，此时市场受到新资金流入的支撑。在此期间，随着股市从10月份的疲软中反弹以及共同基金税收损失销售季节的结束，11月和12月可能会表现强劲。那是十月底完成的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. COVID is rolling over</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.新冠疫情正在蔓延</b></blockquote></p><p> It’s no secret that case counts and hospitalizations are down sharply. Last year, the cold weather did not usher in a winter COVID flu season. So, it’s not too crazy to expect the same thing this year, especially given all the people who have been vaccinated or infected. Reopening will help boost the economy.</p><p><blockquote>众所周知，病例数和住院人数急剧下降。去年，寒冷的天气并没有迎来冬季COVID流感季节。所以，今年期待同样的事情并不太疯狂，尤其是考虑到所有已经接种疫苗或被感染的人。重新开放将有助于提振经济。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. A correction may have already happened</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.修正可能已经发生</b></blockquote></p><p> Since the summer, the market has experienced rolling corrections in various sectors. The Russell 2000RUT,+0.14%was down over 10% in August, the definition of a correction. Cyclicals, retail, tech and so forth have all been hit. As of early October, 90% or more of S&amp;P 500SPX,-0.05%and NasdaqCOMP,-0.28%stocks had fallen at least 10% from 2021 highs, notes Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles SchwabSCHW,+1.47%.</p><p><blockquote>入夏以来，市场经历了各板块的滚动回调。罗素2000RUT,+0.14%8月份下跌超过10%，这是回调的定义。周期性、零售、科技等都受到了打击。嘉信理财首席投资策略师Liz Ann Sonders指出，截至10月初，90%或更多的标准普尔500SPX(-0.05%)和纳斯达克综合指数(-0.28%)股票已较2021年高点下跌至少10%，+1.47%。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, while everyone was looking for a correction, it may have already happened. The market has a funny way of tricking most people most of the time, this way.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，当所有人都在寻找修正时，它可能已经发生了。大多数时候，市场有一种有趣的方式来欺骗大多数人，就是这种方式。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. There’s been strong household formation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5.家庭结构强劲</b></blockquote></p><p> Millennials are finally giving up on the parents’ basement – if there was ever any truth to that cliché.</p><p><blockquote>千禧一代终于放弃了父母的地下室——如果这种陈词滥调有任何真实性的话。</blockquote></p><p> What is true: They’re entering the prime age for marriage and family. Plus, the economy is booming so they feel confident enough to make the plunge into homeownership.</p><p><blockquote>事实是：他们正在进入婚姻和家庭的黄金年龄。此外，经济正在蓬勃发展，所以他们有足够的信心投入到住房所有权。</blockquote></p><p> The upshot: Household formation is now at about two million per year, more than double the rate for the past five years. Home buyers have to purchase a lot of stuff to fill up those new houses. That’s a built-in economy booster.</p><p><blockquote>结果是：现在每年大约有200万个家庭组成，是过去五年的两倍多。购房者不得不购买很多东西来填满这些新房子。这是一个内置的经济助推器。</blockquote></p><p> <b>6. The consumer is scared, locked and loaded</b></p><p><blockquote><b>6.消费者害怕，锁定和装载</b></blockquote></p><p> There are at least a half-dozen natural sources of stimulus in the economy ready to drive growth whether the Fed tapers or not, points out Jim Paulsen, an economist and strategist at Leuthold Group. One is that household formation, mentioned above. Another is the low level of inventories at companies – which have to restock big time. But to me, the big one is the consumer, simply because consumer spending is the big driver of our economy.</p><p><blockquote>Leuthold Group经济学家兼策略师吉姆·保尔森(Jim Paulsen)指出，无论美联储是否缩减规模，经济中至少有六种自然刺激来源可以推动经济增长。一个是上面提到的家庭结构。另一个原因是公司库存水平较低——它们必须大量补货。但对我来说，最大的因素是消费者，因为消费者支出是我们经济的主要驱动力。</blockquote></p><p> The bottom line: Consumer are scared. But they have a ton of buying power to tap when their anxieties ease — perhaps as COVID continues to roll over.</p><p><blockquote>底线是：消费者感到害怕。但当他们的焦虑缓解时，他们有大量的购买力可以利用——也许是随着新冠疫情的继续蔓延。</blockquote></p><p> Now a little more detail.August consumer sentimentwas at the lowest level since the pandemic began, as measured by the University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment. Itnudged up in September, but it is still low.</p><p><blockquote>现在更多细节。根据密歇根大学消费者信心指数衡量，8月份消费者信心处于大流行开始以来的最低水平。9月份有所上升，但仍处于低位。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, consumers have a tremendous amount of buying power. Personal savings are at about 12% of GDP. That’s twice the longer-term average of around 6%-7%, notes Paulsen. Net worth compared to income is at record highs.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，消费者拥有巨大的购买力。个人储蓄约占GDP的12%。保尔森指出，这是6%-7%左右的长期平均水平的两倍。净资产与收入相比创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> Don’t make the mistake of thinking that’s just the rich getting richer because of the stock market. Homes are up a lot too, and most people own homes. The ratio of household debt to personal income is the lowest since 1985.</p><p><blockquote>不要错误地认为这只是富人因为股市而变得更富。房价也涨了很多，大多数人都有自己的房子。家庭债务与个人收入之比为1985年以来最低。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “Consumers are scared and loaded with untapped buying power,” says Paulsen. “This pessimistic mindset combined with the excess buying power has historically produced solid market gains with infrequent declines,” he says. “This ratio portrays a bull market that is still in its infancy.”</p><p><blockquote>“消费者感到害怕，并且充满了未开发的购买力，”保尔森说。他表示：“这种悲观心态加上购买力过剩，从历史上看，市场出现了稳健的上涨，但很少出现下跌。”“这个比率描绘了一个仍处于起步阶段的牛市。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>S</b><b><b>tocks</b></b><b>&nbsp;to buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>S</b><b><b>托克斯</b></b><b>购买</b></blockquote></p><p> Since the consumer is such a big part of this dynamic, I say go with retail stocks. They’ve been underperforming, which also makes them look attractive.</p><p><blockquote>由于消费者是这种动态的重要组成部分，我建议选择零售股。他们表现不佳，这也让他们看起来很有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> Morningstar cites Bath &amp; Body WorksBBWI,-0.74%as a retailer with a moat and trading at a discount. The body care and home fragrance retailer has a four-star rating because its stock is trading so far below Morningstar’s “fair value” estimate of $79 for the name.</p><p><blockquote>晨星公司将Bath&amp;Body WorksBBWI,-0.74%视为一家拥有护城河且交易折扣的零售商。这家身体护理和家用香水零售商获得四星级评级，因为其股票交易价格远低于晨星公司对该名称79美元的“公允价值”估计。</blockquote></p><p> As for the moat, analyst Jaime Katz cites the company’s strong brand, its leadership position in its space, and the 30% average return on invested capital, well above its 8% weighted average cost of capital.</p><p><blockquote>至于护城河，分析师Jaime Katz列举了该公司强大的品牌、在该领域的领导地位以及30%的平均投资资本回报率，远高于其8%的加权平均资本成本。</blockquote></p><p> Eric Marshall, a portfolio manager at the Hodges Small Cap fundHDPSX,+1.83%,likes the apparel retailer American Eagle OutfittersAEO,0.36%,which is down over 35% from highs this year. The company posted record revenue of $1.19 billion in the second quarter, up 35% year over year.</p><p><blockquote>Hodges Small Cap fundHDPSX(+1.83%)的投资组合经理埃里克·马歇尔(Eric Marshall)看好服装零售商American Eagle OutfittersAEO(0.36%)，该股较今年高点下跌了35%以上。该公司第二季度营收达到创纪录的11.9亿美元，同比增长35%。</blockquote></p><p> The core growth driver is its popular Aerie brand. Marshall thinks the company will earn over $2 a share this year, which makes American Eagle stock a bargain at around 13 times forward earnings.</p><p><blockquote>核心增长动力是其广受欢迎的Aerie品牌。马歇尔认为该公司今年每股收益将超过2美元，这使得American Eagle股票的预期市盈率约为13倍，非常便宜。</blockquote></p><p> Marshall is worth listening to because he has a hot hand. His Hodges small-cap fund is up 31% this year, beating its small blend category and Russell 2000 index benchmark by 12 to 18 percentage points, according to Morningstar.</p><p><blockquote>马歇尔值得一听，因为他有一双热情的手。据晨星公司称，他的Hodges小型股基金今年上涨了31%，比小型混合基金和罗素2000指数基准高出12至18个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> Marshall also likes Academy Sports and OutdoorsASO,-0.91%,which sells sports and outdoor recreation&nbsp;goods. The pandemic was a windfall for this company because of the popularity of outdoor activities. Strong pandemic sales helped the company chip away at its high debt levels. Analysts are worried the pandemic-inspired popularity of outdoor activities will wane, but Marshall thinks the outdoor lifestyle will stay in vogue.</p><p><blockquote>马歇尔还喜欢Academy Sports and OutdoorsASO,-0.91%，该公司销售运动和户外休闲用品。由于户外活动的流行，疫情对这家公司来说是一笔意外之财。强劲的大流行销售帮助该公司降低了高债务水平。分析师担心大流行引发的户外活动的受欢迎程度将会减弱，但马歇尔认为户外生活方式将继续流行。</blockquote></p><p> While many retail sector investors are awed by the power of Amazon.comAMZN,0.03%and WalmartWMT,0.03%,Motley Fool retail sector analyst Asit Sharma favors niche chains that have mastered the “direct to consumer” sales model. They offer great stores and solid products, but also the mix of delivery options that shoppers want – including in-store pickup of items bought online.</p><p><blockquote>虽然许多零售行业投资者对亚马逊MAMZN(0.03%)和沃尔玛WMT(0.03%)的力量感到敬畏，但Motley Fool零售行业分析师Asit Sharma更青睐掌握“直接面向消费者”销售模式的利基连锁店。他们提供很棒的商店和可靠的产品，但也提供购物者想要的送货选择组合——包括在店内提货网上购买的商品。</blockquote></p><p> “The retail sector gets a perennial bad rap because everyone is focused on yesterday’s story, that Amazon and Walmart are taking out all physical stores,” says Sharma. But that’s not the case. Many retailers provide a mix of excellent in-store experiences and unique products that the two retail giants can’t really offer.</p><p><blockquote>夏尔马说：“零售业常年受到负面评价，因为每个人都在关注昨天的故事，即亚马逊和沃尔玛正在关闭所有实体店。”但事实并非如此。许多零售商提供出色的店内体验和独特的产品，这是这两家零售巨头无法真正提供的。</blockquote></p><p> Here, Sharma cites Lululemon AthleticaLULU,-0.88%.“We love the fact that the company spends on its own research and development innovation on the fabric side.” Stores give consumers a chance to check out the custom fabrics in person.</p><p><blockquote>在这里，Sharma引用了Lululemon AthleticaLULU，-0.88%。“我们喜欢该公司在面料方面投入自己的研发创新。”商店给消费者一个亲自检查定制面料的机会。</blockquote></p><p> Sharma also favors Yeti HoldingsYETI,-1.92%,which sells coolers, “drinkware” and outdoor equipment. For a larger cap name, consider the popular retail giant TargetTGT,-0.24%for its “everything under one roof” approach to retail.</p><p><blockquote>夏尔马还青睐Yeti HoldingsYETI，-1.92%，该公司销售冷却器、“饮品”和户外设备。对于较大的股票名称，请考虑受欢迎的零售巨头TargetTGT，-0.24%，因其“一切都在一个屋檐下”的零售方式。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>6 reasons this is a fresh multiyear bull market and 6 stocks in the surprising sector you should favor<blockquote>这是一个新的多年牛市的6个原因以及您应该青睐的令人惊讶的行业中的6只股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n6 reasons this is a fresh multiyear bull market and 6 stocks in the surprising sector you should favor<blockquote>这是一个新的多年牛市的6个原因以及您应该青睐的令人惊讶的行业中的6只股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-08 22:44</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>Stock-market pessimism and excess consumer buying power point to retail stocks.</b>  Nothing like a little October turbulence to help the market’s weak hands get in touch with their inner bears.</p><p><blockquote><b>股市悲观情绪和消费者过度购买给零售股带来了动力。</b>没有什么比十月的一点动荡更能帮助市场的弱者与内心的空头取得联系了。</blockquote></p><p> But don’t let their negativity rub off on you. We’re still near the beginning of what will be a multiyear bull market. Here are six reasons to buy stocks now, and six names to consider in one of the best sectors to own at the moment.</p><p><blockquote>但是不要让他们的消极影响到你。我们仍接近多年牛市的开始。以下是现在购买股票的六个理由，以及目前最值得考虑的行业之一的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Sentiment has gotten bearish enough</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.情绪已经变得足够悲观</b></blockquote></p><p> I regularly track investor sentiment in my stock letter (details and link in bio below) to make contrarian “calls” on the market. While most of your money should be in long-term holdings, timing entries when most people are bearish gives you an edge. That is the case now. Sentiment is not extremely negative, but it fell enough this week to trigger a buy signal in my system.</p><p><blockquote>我定期在我的股票信中跟踪投资者情绪（详细信息和链接见下面的简历），以在市场上进行逆向“评级”。虽然你的大部分资金应该长期持有，但在大多数人看跌的时候入场会给你带来优势。现在就是这样。情绪并不是极其负面，但本周下跌足以在我的系统中触发买入信号。</blockquote></p><p> It’s also worth pointing out that major media figures turned pretty negative this week, another good contrarian signal. (I won’t name names.) And the fact that their negativity is a bullish signal in my book doesn’t mean I think they are dense. It’s just that high-profile media commentators are consensus sponges. It’s an occupational hazard – which we can use to our advantage as investors.</p><p><blockquote>还值得指出的是，主要媒体数据本周变得相当负面，这是另一个良好的逆向信号。（我就不指名道姓了。）而他们的消极在我的书里是看涨信号的事实，并不意味着我认为他们是密集的。只是高调的媒体评论员是共识海绵。这是一种职业危害——作为投资者，我们可以利用这一点。</blockquote></p><p> Pick your favorite popular financial media talking heads, then do the opposite whenever they turn consistently negative — or positive.</p><p><blockquote>挑选你最喜欢的流行财经媒体发言人，然后在他们持续消极或积极时反其道而行之。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Seasonality is in our favor</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.季节性对我们有利</b></blockquote></p><p> The worst month for stocks is October, and the weakest days are Oct. 10 and Oct. 11. Then this bleak month is followed by the seasonally strong January-May phase when the market is bolstered by new money coming in. In between, November and December can be strong as stocks rebound from October weakness and the end of the mutual-fund tax-loss selling season. That’s finished at the end of October.</p><p><blockquote>股市最糟糕的月份是10月，最疲软的日子是10月10日和10月11日。然后，这个惨淡的月份之后是季节性强劲的1月至5月阶段，此时市场受到新资金流入的支撑。在此期间，随着股市从10月份的疲软中反弹以及共同基金税收损失销售季节的结束，11月和12月可能会表现强劲。那是十月底完成的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. COVID is rolling over</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.新冠疫情正在蔓延</b></blockquote></p><p> It’s no secret that case counts and hospitalizations are down sharply. Last year, the cold weather did not usher in a winter COVID flu season. So, it’s not too crazy to expect the same thing this year, especially given all the people who have been vaccinated or infected. Reopening will help boost the economy.</p><p><blockquote>众所周知，病例数和住院人数急剧下降。去年，寒冷的天气并没有迎来冬季COVID流感季节。所以，今年期待同样的事情并不太疯狂，尤其是考虑到所有已经接种疫苗或被感染的人。重新开放将有助于提振经济。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. A correction may have already happened</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.修正可能已经发生</b></blockquote></p><p> Since the summer, the market has experienced rolling corrections in various sectors. The Russell 2000RUT,+0.14%was down over 10% in August, the definition of a correction. Cyclicals, retail, tech and so forth have all been hit. As of early October, 90% or more of S&amp;P 500SPX,-0.05%and NasdaqCOMP,-0.28%stocks had fallen at least 10% from 2021 highs, notes Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles SchwabSCHW,+1.47%.</p><p><blockquote>入夏以来，市场经历了各板块的滚动回调。罗素2000RUT,+0.14%8月份下跌超过10%，这是回调的定义。周期性、零售、科技等都受到了打击。嘉信理财首席投资策略师Liz Ann Sonders指出，截至10月初，90%或更多的标准普尔500SPX(-0.05%)和纳斯达克综合指数(-0.28%)股票已较2021年高点下跌至少10%，+1.47%。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, while everyone was looking for a correction, it may have already happened. The market has a funny way of tricking most people most of the time, this way.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，当所有人都在寻找修正时，它可能已经发生了。大多数时候，市场有一种有趣的方式来欺骗大多数人，就是这种方式。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. There’s been strong household formation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5.家庭结构强劲</b></blockquote></p><p> Millennials are finally giving up on the parents’ basement – if there was ever any truth to that cliché.</p><p><blockquote>千禧一代终于放弃了父母的地下室——如果这种陈词滥调有任何真实性的话。</blockquote></p><p> What is true: They’re entering the prime age for marriage and family. Plus, the economy is booming so they feel confident enough to make the plunge into homeownership.</p><p><blockquote>事实是：他们正在进入婚姻和家庭的黄金年龄。此外，经济正在蓬勃发展，所以他们有足够的信心投入到住房所有权。</blockquote></p><p> The upshot: Household formation is now at about two million per year, more than double the rate for the past five years. Home buyers have to purchase a lot of stuff to fill up those new houses. That’s a built-in economy booster.</p><p><blockquote>结果是：现在每年大约有200万个家庭组成，是过去五年的两倍多。购房者不得不购买很多东西来填满这些新房子。这是一个内置的经济助推器。</blockquote></p><p> <b>6. The consumer is scared, locked and loaded</b></p><p><blockquote><b>6.消费者害怕，锁定和装载</b></blockquote></p><p> There are at least a half-dozen natural sources of stimulus in the economy ready to drive growth whether the Fed tapers or not, points out Jim Paulsen, an economist and strategist at Leuthold Group. One is that household formation, mentioned above. Another is the low level of inventories at companies – which have to restock big time. But to me, the big one is the consumer, simply because consumer spending is the big driver of our economy.</p><p><blockquote>Leuthold Group经济学家兼策略师吉姆·保尔森(Jim Paulsen)指出，无论美联储是否缩减规模，经济中至少有六种自然刺激来源可以推动经济增长。一个是上面提到的家庭结构。另一个原因是公司库存水平较低——它们必须大量补货。但对我来说，最大的因素是消费者，因为消费者支出是我们经济的主要驱动力。</blockquote></p><p> The bottom line: Consumer are scared. But they have a ton of buying power to tap when their anxieties ease — perhaps as COVID continues to roll over.</p><p><blockquote>底线是：消费者感到害怕。但当他们的焦虑缓解时，他们有大量的购买力可以利用——也许是随着新冠疫情的继续蔓延。</blockquote></p><p> Now a little more detail.August consumer sentimentwas at the lowest level since the pandemic began, as measured by the University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment. Itnudged up in September, but it is still low.</p><p><blockquote>现在更多细节。根据密歇根大学消费者信心指数衡量，8月份消费者信心处于大流行开始以来的最低水平。9月份有所上升，但仍处于低位。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, consumers have a tremendous amount of buying power. Personal savings are at about 12% of GDP. That’s twice the longer-term average of around 6%-7%, notes Paulsen. Net worth compared to income is at record highs.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，消费者拥有巨大的购买力。个人储蓄约占GDP的12%。保尔森指出，这是6%-7%左右的长期平均水平的两倍。净资产与收入相比创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> Don’t make the mistake of thinking that’s just the rich getting richer because of the stock market. Homes are up a lot too, and most people own homes. The ratio of household debt to personal income is the lowest since 1985.</p><p><blockquote>不要错误地认为这只是富人因为股市而变得更富。房价也涨了很多，大多数人都有自己的房子。家庭债务与个人收入之比为1985年以来最低。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “Consumers are scared and loaded with untapped buying power,” says Paulsen. “This pessimistic mindset combined with the excess buying power has historically produced solid market gains with infrequent declines,” he says. “This ratio portrays a bull market that is still in its infancy.”</p><p><blockquote>“消费者感到害怕，并且充满了未开发的购买力，”保尔森说。他表示：“这种悲观心态加上购买力过剩，从历史上看，市场出现了稳健的上涨，但很少出现下跌。”“这个比率描绘了一个仍处于起步阶段的牛市。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>S</b><b><b>tocks</b></b><b>&nbsp;to buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>S</b><b><b>托克斯</b></b><b>购买</b></blockquote></p><p> Since the consumer is such a big part of this dynamic, I say go with retail stocks. They’ve been underperforming, which also makes them look attractive.</p><p><blockquote>由于消费者是这种动态的重要组成部分，我建议选择零售股。他们表现不佳，这也让他们看起来很有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> Morningstar cites Bath &amp; Body WorksBBWI,-0.74%as a retailer with a moat and trading at a discount. The body care and home fragrance retailer has a four-star rating because its stock is trading so far below Morningstar’s “fair value” estimate of $79 for the name.</p><p><blockquote>晨星公司将Bath&amp;Body WorksBBWI,-0.74%视为一家拥有护城河且交易折扣的零售商。这家身体护理和家用香水零售商获得四星级评级，因为其股票交易价格远低于晨星公司对该名称79美元的“公允价值”估计。</blockquote></p><p> As for the moat, analyst Jaime Katz cites the company’s strong brand, its leadership position in its space, and the 30% average return on invested capital, well above its 8% weighted average cost of capital.</p><p><blockquote>至于护城河，分析师Jaime Katz列举了该公司强大的品牌、在该领域的领导地位以及30%的平均投资资本回报率，远高于其8%的加权平均资本成本。</blockquote></p><p> Eric Marshall, a portfolio manager at the Hodges Small Cap fundHDPSX,+1.83%,likes the apparel retailer American Eagle OutfittersAEO,0.36%,which is down over 35% from highs this year. The company posted record revenue of $1.19 billion in the second quarter, up 35% year over year.</p><p><blockquote>Hodges Small Cap fundHDPSX(+1.83%)的投资组合经理埃里克·马歇尔(Eric Marshall)看好服装零售商American Eagle OutfittersAEO(0.36%)，该股较今年高点下跌了35%以上。该公司第二季度营收达到创纪录的11.9亿美元，同比增长35%。</blockquote></p><p> The core growth driver is its popular Aerie brand. Marshall thinks the company will earn over $2 a share this year, which makes American Eagle stock a bargain at around 13 times forward earnings.</p><p><blockquote>核心增长动力是其广受欢迎的Aerie品牌。马歇尔认为该公司今年每股收益将超过2美元，这使得American Eagle股票的预期市盈率约为13倍，非常便宜。</blockquote></p><p> Marshall is worth listening to because he has a hot hand. His Hodges small-cap fund is up 31% this year, beating its small blend category and Russell 2000 index benchmark by 12 to 18 percentage points, according to Morningstar.</p><p><blockquote>马歇尔值得一听，因为他有一双热情的手。据晨星公司称，他的Hodges小型股基金今年上涨了31%，比小型混合基金和罗素2000指数基准高出12至18个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> Marshall also likes Academy Sports and OutdoorsASO,-0.91%,which sells sports and outdoor recreation&nbsp;goods. The pandemic was a windfall for this company because of the popularity of outdoor activities. Strong pandemic sales helped the company chip away at its high debt levels. Analysts are worried the pandemic-inspired popularity of outdoor activities will wane, but Marshall thinks the outdoor lifestyle will stay in vogue.</p><p><blockquote>马歇尔还喜欢Academy Sports and OutdoorsASO,-0.91%，该公司销售运动和户外休闲用品。由于户外活动的流行，疫情对这家公司来说是一笔意外之财。强劲的大流行销售帮助该公司降低了高债务水平。分析师担心大流行引发的户外活动的受欢迎程度将会减弱，但马歇尔认为户外生活方式将继续流行。</blockquote></p><p> While many retail sector investors are awed by the power of Amazon.comAMZN,0.03%and WalmartWMT,0.03%,Motley Fool retail sector analyst Asit Sharma favors niche chains that have mastered the “direct to consumer” sales model. They offer great stores and solid products, but also the mix of delivery options that shoppers want – including in-store pickup of items bought online.</p><p><blockquote>虽然许多零售行业投资者对亚马逊MAMZN(0.03%)和沃尔玛WMT(0.03%)的力量感到敬畏，但Motley Fool零售行业分析师Asit Sharma更青睐掌握“直接面向消费者”销售模式的利基连锁店。他们提供很棒的商店和可靠的产品，但也提供购物者想要的送货选择组合——包括在店内提货网上购买的商品。</blockquote></p><p> “The retail sector gets a perennial bad rap because everyone is focused on yesterday’s story, that Amazon and Walmart are taking out all physical stores,” says Sharma. But that’s not the case. Many retailers provide a mix of excellent in-store experiences and unique products that the two retail giants can’t really offer.</p><p><blockquote>夏尔马说：“零售业常年受到负面评价，因为每个人都在关注昨天的故事，即亚马逊和沃尔玛正在关闭所有实体店。”但事实并非如此。许多零售商提供出色的店内体验和独特的产品，这是这两家零售巨头无法真正提供的。</blockquote></p><p> Here, Sharma cites Lululemon AthleticaLULU,-0.88%.“We love the fact that the company spends on its own research and development innovation on the fabric side.” Stores give consumers a chance to check out the custom fabrics in person.</p><p><blockquote>在这里，Sharma引用了Lululemon AthleticaLULU，-0.88%。“我们喜欢该公司在面料方面投入自己的研发创新。”商店给消费者一个亲自检查定制面料的机会。</blockquote></p><p> Sharma also favors Yeti HoldingsYETI,-1.92%,which sells coolers, “drinkware” and outdoor equipment. For a larger cap name, consider the popular retail giant TargetTGT,-0.24%for its “everything under one roof” approach to retail.</p><p><blockquote>夏尔马还青睐Yeti HoldingsYETI，-1.92%，该公司销售冷却器、“饮品”和户外设备。对于较大的股票名称，请考虑受欢迎的零售巨头TargetTGT，-0.24%，因其“一切都在一个屋檐下”的零售方式。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/6-reasons-this-is-a-fresh-multiyear-bull-market-and-6-stocks-in-the-surprising-sector-you-should-favor-11633701844?siteid=yhoof2\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/6-reasons-this-is-a-fresh-multiyear-bull-market-and-6-stocks-in-the-surprising-sector-you-should-favor-11633701844?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133780035","content_text":"Stock-market pessimism and excess consumer buying power point to retail stocks.\n\nNothing like a little October turbulence to help the market’s weak hands get in touch with their inner bears.\nBut don’t let their negativity rub off on you. We’re still near the beginning of what will be a multiyear bull market. Here are six reasons to buy stocks now, and six names to consider in one of the best sectors to own at the moment.\n1. Sentiment has gotten bearish enough\nI regularly track investor sentiment in my stock letter (details and link in bio below) to make contrarian “calls” on the market. While most of your money should be in long-term holdings, timing entries when most people are bearish gives you an edge. That is the case now. Sentiment is not extremely negative, but it fell enough this week to trigger a buy signal in my system.\nIt’s also worth pointing out that major media figures turned pretty negative this week, another good contrarian signal. (I won’t name names.) And the fact that their negativity is a bullish signal in my book doesn’t mean I think they are dense. It’s just that high-profile media commentators are consensus sponges. It’s an occupational hazard – which we can use to our advantage as investors.\nPick your favorite popular financial media talking heads, then do the opposite whenever they turn consistently negative — or positive.\n2. Seasonality is in our favor\nThe worst month for stocks is October, and the weakest days are Oct. 10 and Oct. 11. Then this bleak month is followed by the seasonally strong January-May phase when the market is bolstered by new money coming in. In between, November and December can be strong as stocks rebound from October weakness and the end of the mutual-fund tax-loss selling season. That’s finished at the end of October.\n3. COVID is rolling over\nIt’s no secret that case counts and hospitalizations are down sharply. Last year, the cold weather did not usher in a winter COVID flu season. So, it’s not too crazy to expect the same thing this year, especially given all the people who have been vaccinated or infected. Reopening will help boost the economy.\n4. A correction may have already happened\nSince the summer, the market has experienced rolling corrections in various sectors. The Russell 2000RUT,+0.14%was down over 10% in August, the definition of a correction. Cyclicals, retail, tech and so forth have all been hit. As of early October, 90% or more of S&P 500SPX,-0.05%and NasdaqCOMP,-0.28%stocks had fallen at least 10% from 2021 highs, notes Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles SchwabSCHW,+1.47%.\nIn other words, while everyone was looking for a correction, it may have already happened. The market has a funny way of tricking most people most of the time, this way.\n5. There’s been strong household formation\nMillennials are finally giving up on the parents’ basement – if there was ever any truth to that cliché.\nWhat is true: They’re entering the prime age for marriage and family. Plus, the economy is booming so they feel confident enough to make the plunge into homeownership.\nThe upshot: Household formation is now at about two million per year, more than double the rate for the past five years. Home buyers have to purchase a lot of stuff to fill up those new houses. That’s a built-in economy booster.\n6. The consumer is scared, locked and loaded\nThere are at least a half-dozen natural sources of stimulus in the economy ready to drive growth whether the Fed tapers or not, points out Jim Paulsen, an economist and strategist at Leuthold Group. One is that household formation, mentioned above. Another is the low level of inventories at companies – which have to restock big time. But to me, the big one is the consumer, simply because consumer spending is the big driver of our economy.\nThe bottom line: Consumer are scared. But they have a ton of buying power to tap when their anxieties ease — perhaps as COVID continues to roll over.\nNow a little more detail.August consumer sentimentwas at the lowest level since the pandemic began, as measured by the University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment. Itnudged up in September, but it is still low.\nAt the same time, consumers have a tremendous amount of buying power. Personal savings are at about 12% of GDP. That’s twice the longer-term average of around 6%-7%, notes Paulsen. Net worth compared to income is at record highs.\nDon’t make the mistake of thinking that’s just the rich getting richer because of the stock market. Homes are up a lot too, and most people own homes. The ratio of household debt to personal income is the lowest since 1985.\n“Consumers are scared and loaded with untapped buying power,” says Paulsen. “This pessimistic mindset combined with the excess buying power has historically produced solid market gains with infrequent declines,” he says. “This ratio portrays a bull market that is still in its infancy.”\nStocks to buy\nSince the consumer is such a big part of this dynamic, I say go with retail stocks. They’ve been underperforming, which also makes them look attractive.\nMorningstar cites Bath & Body WorksBBWI,-0.74%as a retailer with a moat and trading at a discount. The body care and home fragrance retailer has a four-star rating because its stock is trading so far below Morningstar’s “fair value” estimate of $79 for the name.\nAs for the moat, analyst Jaime Katz cites the company’s strong brand, its leadership position in its space, and the 30% average return on invested capital, well above its 8% weighted average cost of capital.\nEric Marshall, a portfolio manager at the Hodges Small Cap fundHDPSX,+1.83%,likes the apparel retailer American Eagle OutfittersAEO,0.36%,which is down over 35% from highs this year. The company posted record revenue of $1.19 billion in the second quarter, up 35% year over year.\nThe core growth driver is its popular Aerie brand. Marshall thinks the company will earn over $2 a share this year, which makes American Eagle stock a bargain at around 13 times forward earnings.\nMarshall is worth listening to because he has a hot hand. His Hodges small-cap fund is up 31% this year, beating its small blend category and Russell 2000 index benchmark by 12 to 18 percentage points, according to Morningstar.\nMarshall also likes Academy Sports and OutdoorsASO,-0.91%,which sells sports and outdoor recreation goods. The pandemic was a windfall for this company because of the popularity of outdoor activities. Strong pandemic sales helped the company chip away at its high debt levels. Analysts are worried the pandemic-inspired popularity of outdoor activities will wane, but Marshall thinks the outdoor lifestyle will stay in vogue.\nWhile many retail sector investors are awed by the power of Amazon.comAMZN,0.03%and WalmartWMT,0.03%,Motley Fool retail sector analyst Asit Sharma favors niche chains that have mastered the “direct to consumer” sales model. They offer great stores and solid products, but also the mix of delivery options that shoppers want – including in-store pickup of items bought online.\n“The retail sector gets a perennial bad rap because everyone is focused on yesterday’s story, that Amazon and Walmart are taking out all physical stores,” says Sharma. But that’s not the case. Many retailers provide a mix of excellent in-store experiences and unique products that the two retail giants can’t really offer.\nHere, Sharma cites Lululemon AthleticaLULU,-0.88%.“We love the fact that the company spends on its own research and development innovation on the fabric side.” Stores give consumers a chance to check out the custom fabrics in person.\nSharma also favors Yeti HoldingsYETI,-1.92%,which sells coolers, “drinkware” and outdoor equipment. For a larger cap name, consider the popular retail giant TargetTGT,-0.24%for its “everything under one roof” approach to retail.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":543,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":867850363,"gmtCreate":1633240222277,"gmtModify":1633240222891,"author":{"id":"3579599009721057","authorId":"3579599009721057","name":"leddjy","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579599009721057","authorIdStr":"3579599009721057"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Happy Sunday all!","listText":"Happy Sunday all!","text":"Happy Sunday all!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/867850363","repostId":"1195986801","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195986801","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633237941,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1195986801?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-03 13:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Tesla's Q3 Numbers Are 'Eye Popping' and Hard to Poke Holes In<blockquote>为什么特斯拉第三季度的数据“令人瞠目结舌”且难以发现漏洞</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195986801","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Tesla, Inc. reported Saturday record quarterly deliveries despite the surrounding turbulence. An analyst at Wedbush Securities sees the performance as \"massive.\". The Tesla Analyst:Daniel Ives maintained an Outperform rating and $1,000 price target for Tesla shares.The Tesla Thesis:Tesla's third-quarter deliveries of 241,000 beat even the bull-case whisper number on the Street, analyst Ives said in a note. The strength, the analyst said, was driven byrobust Model 3/Y salesof 232, 000.Total produ","content":"<p><div> Tesla, Inc. reported Saturday record quarterly deliveries despite the surrounding turbulence. An analyst at Wedbush Securities sees the performance as \"massive.\" The Tesla Analyst:Daniel Ives ...</p><p><blockquote><div>尽管周围局势动荡，特斯拉公司周六公布了创纪录的季度交付量。韦德布什证券(Wedbush Securities)的一位分析师认为这一业绩“巨大”。特斯拉分析师：Daniel Ives...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/10/23207870/why-teslas-q3-numbers-are-eye-popping-and-hard-to-poke-holes-in\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/10/23207870/why-teslas-q3-numbers-are-eye-popping-and-hard-to-poke-holes-in\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Tesla's Q3 Numbers Are 'Eye Popping' and Hard to Poke Holes In<blockquote>为什么特斯拉第三季度的数据“令人瞠目结舌”且难以发现漏洞</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Tesla's Q3 Numbers Are 'Eye Popping' and Hard to Poke Holes In<blockquote>为什么特斯拉第三季度的数据“令人瞠目结舌”且难以发现漏洞</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Benzinga</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-03 13:12</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Tesla, Inc. reported Saturday record quarterly deliveries despite the surrounding turbulence. An analyst at Wedbush Securities sees the performance as \"massive.\" The Tesla Analyst:Daniel Ives ...</p><p><blockquote><div>尽管周围局势动荡，特斯拉公司周六公布了创纪录的季度交付量。韦德布什证券(Wedbush Securities)的一位分析师认为这一业绩“巨大”。特斯拉分析师：Daniel Ives...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/10/23207870/why-teslas-q3-numbers-are-eye-popping-and-hard-to-poke-holes-in\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/10/23207870/why-teslas-q3-numbers-are-eye-popping-and-hard-to-poke-holes-in\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/10/23207870/why-teslas-q3-numbers-are-eye-popping-and-hard-to-poke-holes-in\">Benzinga</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/10/23207870/why-teslas-q3-numbers-are-eye-popping-and-hard-to-poke-holes-in","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195986801","content_text":"Tesla, Inc. reported Saturday record quarterly deliveries despite the surrounding turbulence. An analyst at Wedbush Securities sees the performance as \"massive.\"\nThe Tesla Analyst:Daniel Ives maintained an Outperform rating and $1,000 price target for Tesla shares.\nThe Tesla Thesis:Tesla's third-quarter deliveries of 241,000 beat even the bull-case whisper number on the Street, analyst Ives said in a note. The strength, the analyst said, was driven byrobust Model 3/Y salesof 232, 000.\nTotal production in the quarter was 238,000, about 10,000 ahead of Wedbush's and Street estimates, the analyst said.\n\"Taking a step back, with the chip shortage a major overhang on the auto space and logistical issues globally, these delivery numbers were \"eye-popping\" and speak to an EV demand trajectory that looks quite robust for Tesla heading into 4Q and 2022,\" Ives wrote in the note.\nWedbush's estimate of 150,000 deliveries for September, according to the analyst, is a clear indicator of the green tidal wave taking hold for Tesla across the board. China demand may have rebounded in the quarter and will be a focus for the bulls digesting these results, he added.\n\"In a nutshell, these numbers are hard to poke holes in and will be a major feather in the cap for the bulls on Monday morning and should improve broader sentiment on the EV space as a whole,\" Wedbush said.\nTesla Price Action:Tesla shares closed Friday's session down 0.03% at $775.22 and were down an incremental 0.03% in after-hours trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":761,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":864869136,"gmtCreate":1633089748440,"gmtModify":1633089807615,"author":{"id":"3579599009721057","authorId":"3579599009721057","name":"leddjy","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579599009721057","authorIdStr":"3579599009721057"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Happy weekend!","listText":"Happy weekend!","text":"Happy weekend!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/864869136","repostId":"2170131614","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":413,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":862721874,"gmtCreate":1632916733134,"gmtModify":1632916782180,"author":{"id":"3579599009721057","authorId":"3579599009721057","name":"leddjy","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579599009721057","authorIdStr":"3579599009721057"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Correction","listText":"Correction","text":"Correction","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862721874","repostId":"1198528044","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198528044","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632882697,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198528044?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-29 10:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Technically Speaking: Is The Market \"Melting-Up?\"<blockquote>从技术上讲：市场正在“融化”吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198528044","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nGiven the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protect","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.</li>  <li>As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.</li>  <li>While it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent “this time is different”.</li> </ul> Is the<i>“market melting-up?”</i>Such was the question I received from my colleague at<i>Cut The Crap Investing.</i>It is an excellent question given the relentless increase in what investors believe is a<i>“no risk”</i>market.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>鉴于美联储正在进行的资产负债表操作，投资者完全相信他们有能力免受经济衰退的影响。</li><li>与往常一样，投资大众相信未来的收益将证明在融化期间价格上涨是合理的。从来都不是那样的。</li><li>虽然在融化持续期间利用它是至关重要的，但不要过于自满“这次不同了”。</li></ul>是<i>“市场融化？”</i>这是我从我的同事那里收到的问题<i>少废话投资。</i>考虑到投资者认为的持续增长，这是一个很好的问题<i>“没有风险”</i>市场。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, we need a definition of precisely what constitutes a melt-up.</p><p><blockquote>当然，我们需要一个准确定义什么是融化。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“A melt-up is a sustained and often unexpected improvement in the investment performance of an asset or asset class, driven partly</i>  <i><b>by a stampede of investors who don’t want to miss out on its rise,</b></i>  <i>rather than by fundamental improvements in the economy.“</i>–  <i>Investopedia</i>  Currently, there is sufficient evidence to support the idea of an exuberant market.<b><i>As noted previously:</i></b></p><p><blockquote><i>他说：“熔断是指一项资产或资产类别的投资表现持续且往往出乎意料的改善，部分原因是</i><i><b>不想错过其上涨机会的投资者蜂拥而至，</b></i><i>而不是经济的根本改善。”</i>–<i>投资百科</i>目前，有足够的证据支持市场繁荣的观点。<b><i>如前所述：</i></b></blockquote></p><p>   <i>“Near peaks of market cycles, investors become swept up by the underlying exuberance. That exuberance breeds the “rationalization” that “this time is different.” So how do you know the market is exuberant currently? Via Sentiment Trader:”</i>    <i>‘This type of market activity is an indication that markets have returned their ‘enthusiasm’ stage. Such is characterized by:’</i>  <ul>  <li><b><i>High optimism</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Easy credit (too easy, with loose terms)</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>A rush of initial and secondary offerings</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Risky stocks outperforming</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Stretched valuations</i></b></li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff8de3a84084162ca86b415584bbf793\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><i>“在市场周期接近峰值时，投资者会被潜在的繁荣所席卷。这种繁荣滋生了“合理化”，即“这次不同了”。那么，你如何知道市场目前是繁荣的呢？通过情绪交易者：”</i><i>这种类型的市场活动表明市场已经回到了“热情”阶段。其特征在于：</i><ul><li><b><i>高度乐观</i></b></li><li><b><i>宽松信贷（太宽松，条款宽松）</i></b></li><li><b><i>首次和二次发行热潮</i></b></li><li><b><i>风险股跑赢大盘</i></b></li><li><b><i>估值过高</i></b></li></ul></blockquote></p><p> However, while one would expect individuals to exhibit caution in such an environment, the opposite is true. Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.</p><p><blockquote>然而，虽然人们会期望个人在这样的环境中表现出谨慎，但事实恰恰相反。鉴于美联储正在进行的资产负债表操作，投资者完全相信他们有能力免受经济衰退的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Visualization Of A Market Melting-Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场融化的可视化</b></blockquote></p><p> It is often easier to visualize something rather than explain it.<b>Since 1900, only two previous market periods qualify as a melt-up: 1920-1929 and 1995-2000.</b>The chart below shows both periods in terms of price.</p><p><blockquote>想象某事通常比解释它更容易。<b>自1900年以来，只有两个市场时期符合熔化的条件：1920-1929年和1995-2000年。</b>下图显示了这两个时期的价格。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a218c7efe2ebd874d05c9ff7dd564436\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f193c9c32d55747bf7ff511c2f9fd53\" tg-width=\"793\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> However, the melt-up is also visually represented by the incredibly sharp rise in valuations. Such is essential because earnings are not rising at a fast enough clip to support higher prices.<b>As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，估值的大幅上涨也直观地体现了这种融化。这一点至关重要，因为盈利增长速度不足以支撑价格上涨。<b>与往常一样，投资大众相信未来的收益将证明在融化期间价格上涨是合理的。从来都不是那样的。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c69e418d5a19d6fd03b305ab111e3be3\" tg-width=\"794\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af03d3bbd071b8edfdf3a19e2c7b0bcd\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We can compare those two previous periods with the current advance from the March 2020 lows. Again, we see a very similar sharp advance in price combined with a surge in valuations. As expected, investors are currently hoping that future earnings will rise sharply enough to justify current prices. However, the justification for paying high prices is the Federal Reserve’s ongoing balance sheet expansion.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以将前两个时期与当前从2020年3月低点的上涨进行比较。我们再次看到非常相似的价格大幅上涨和估值飙升。正如预期的那样，投资者目前希望未来收益将大幅上涨，足以证明当前价格的合理性。然而，支付高价的理由是美联储持续的资产负债表扩张。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3562aea27b24ad4921d0f5cd497e072\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"444\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The following chart looks that the price advance and valuation measures a little differently. It shows the current deviation from the long-term exponential growth trend. Not surprisingly, during a market<i>“melt-up,”</i>there is a rapid deviation from the growth trend matching the acceleration in valuations.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示，价格上涨和估值指标略有不同。它显示了当前与长期指数增长趋势的背离。毫不奇怪，在市场期间<i>“融化。”</i>与估值加速相匹配的增长趋势出现了快速背离。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1419cf4b2afdcdc0f61e0cad862f498d\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The problem with market<i>“melt-ups”</i>is not the melt-up itself but what always follows.</p><p><blockquote>市场的问题<i>“融化”</i>不是融化本身，而是随之而来的一切。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Melting-Up Leads To Melting-Down</b></p><p><blockquote><b>熔化导致熔化</b></blockquote></p><p> A market melting-up is exciting while it lasts. During melt-ups, investors begin to rationalize why<i>“this time is different.”</i>They start taking on excess leverage to try and capitalize on the rapid advance in prices, and fundamentals take a back seat to price momentum.</p><p><blockquote>市场融化持续下去是令人兴奋的。在熔断期间，投资者开始合理化原因<i>“这次不一样。”</i>他们开始过度杠杆，试图利用价格的快速上涨，基本面让位于价格动能。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Market melt-ups are all about<i>“psychology.”</i><b>Historically, whatever has been the catalyst to spark the disregard of risk is readily witnessed in the corresponding surge in price and valuations.</b>The chart below shows the long-term deviations in relative strength, deviations, and valuations. The previous<i>‘melt-up”</i>periods should be easy to spot when compared with the advance currently.</p><p><blockquote>市场融化都是关于<i>“心理学。”</i><b>从历史上看，无论引发忽视风险的催化剂是什么，都很容易在价格和估值的相应飙升中看到。</b>下图显示了相对强度、偏差和估值的长期偏差。上一篇<i>“融化”</i>与目前的进展相比，时期应该很容易发现。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc04cb25c0199dd17475a551a5dd7ec1\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Given that current extensions match only a few rare periods in history, a couple of points should be readily apparent.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于目前的延期仅与历史上少数罕见的时期相匹配，有几点应该是显而易见的。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><b><i>Melt-ups can longer than logic would predict.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>The prevailing psychology is always “this time is different.”</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Valuations are dismissed in exchange for measures of momentum and forward expectations.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Investors take on excess leverage and risk in order to participate in a seemingly “can’t lose” market.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Lastly, and inevitably, “melt-ups” end and always in the worst possible outcomes.</i></b></li> </ol> It is essential to recognize the markets are in a<i>“melt-up,</i>” and the duration of that event is unknowable. Therefore, investors need a strategy to participate in the advance and mitigate the damage from the eventual<i>“melting-down.”</i></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><b><i>融化的时间可能比逻辑预测的要长。</i></b></li><li><b><i>普遍的心理总是“这次不一样了”。</i></b></li><li><b><i>估值被驳回，以换取动量和前瞻性预期的衡量标准。</i></b></li><li><b><i>投资者为了参与一个看似“输不起”的市场，承担了过多的杠杆和风险。</i></b></li><li><b><i>最后，不可避免的是，“融化”以最糟糕的结果告终。</i></b></li></ol>必须认识到市场正处于<i>“融化，</i>“而且该事件的持续时间是未知的。因此，投资者需要一种策略来参与提前并减轻最终的损失<i>“熔化。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Surviving The Melt-Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在融化中幸存下来</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>As noted, none of this means the next</b><b><i>“bear market”</i></b><b>is lurking.</b>Given that a market melting-up is a function of psychology, they can last longer and go further than logic would predict. What is required to “<i>end”</i>a melt-up is an unanticipated exogenous event that changes psychology from bullish to bearish. Such is when the stampede for the exits occurs, and prices decline very quickly.</p><p><blockquote><b>如上所述，这些都不意味着下一个</b><b><i>“熊市”</i></b><b>正在潜伏。</b>鉴于市场融化是心理作用，它们可以持续更长时间，走得比逻辑预测的更远。需要什么“<i>结束“</i>融化是一种意想不到的外生事件，它将心理从看涨转变为看跌。这就是人们蜂拥退出的时候，价格会迅速下跌。</blockquote></p><p> As such, investors need a set of guidelines to participate in the market advance. But, of course, the hard part is keeping those gains when corrections inevitably occur.</p><p><blockquote>因此，投资者需要一套指导方针来参与市场上涨。但是，当然，困难的部分是在不可避免地发生调整时保持这些收益。</blockquote></p><p> As portfolio managers for our clients, such is precisely the approach we must take. Accordingly, I have provided a general overview of the process that we employ.</p><p><blockquote>作为客户的投资组合经理，这正是我们必须采取的方法。因此，我提供了我们采用的流程的总体概述。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><i><b>Tighten up stop-loss levels</b></i><i>to current support levels for each position.(Provides identifiable exit points when the market reverses.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Hedge portfolios</b></i><i>against major market declines.(Non-correlated assets, short-market positions, index put options)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Take profits</b></i><i>in positions that have been big winners(Rebalancing overbought or extended positions to capture gains but continue to participate in the advance.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Sell laggards</b></i><i>and losers</i>.<i>(If something isn’t working in a market melt-up, it most likely won’t work during a broad decline. Better to eliminate the risk early.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Raise cash</b></i><i>and rebalance portfolios to target weightings.(Rebalancing risk on a regular basis keeps hidden risks somewhat mitigated.)</i></li> </ol> <b>Notice, nothing in there says,</b><b><i>“sell everything and go to cash.”</i></b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><i><b>收紧止损水平</b></i><i>每个头寸的当前支撑位。（当市场反转时提供可识别的退出点。）</i></li><li><i><b>对冲投资组合</b></i><i>（非相关资产、空头市场头寸、指数看跌期权）</i></li><li><i><b>获利了结</b></i><i>在已经成为大赢家的头寸中（重新平衡超买或扩展头寸以获取收益，但继续参与上涨。）</i></li><li><i><b>出售落后者</b></i><i>和失败者</i>.<i>（如果某些东西在市场融化时不起作用，那么在广泛下跌时很可能也不会起作用。最好尽早消除风险。）</i></li><li><i><b>筹集现金</b></i><i>并重新平衡投资组合以达到目标权重。（定期重新平衡风险可以在一定程度上减轻隐藏的风险。）</i></li></ol><b>注意，里面没有任何东西说，</b><b><i>“卖掉所有东西，去兑现。”</i></b></blockquote></p><p> There will be a time to raise significant levels of cash. A good portfolio management strategy will automatically ensure that<i>“stop-loss”</i>levels get triggered, exposure decreases, and cash levels rise when the selling begins.</p><p><blockquote>将会有一段时间来筹集大量现金。一个好的投资组合管理策略将自动确保<i>“止损”</i>当出售开始时，水平被触发，风险减少，现金水平上升。</blockquote></p><p> While it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent<i>“this time is different.”</i></p><p><blockquote>虽然有必要在融化持续期间利用它，但不要过于自满<i>“这次不一样。”</i></blockquote></p><p> It likely isn’t.</p><p><blockquote>很可能不是。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Technically Speaking: Is The Market \"Melting-Up?\"<blockquote>从技术上讲：市场正在“融化”吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTechnically Speaking: Is The Market \"Melting-Up?\"<blockquote>从技术上讲：市场正在“融化”吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-29 10:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.</li>  <li>As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.</li>  <li>While it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent “this time is different”.</li> </ul> Is the<i>“market melting-up?”</i>Such was the question I received from my colleague at<i>Cut The Crap Investing.</i>It is an excellent question given the relentless increase in what investors believe is a<i>“no risk”</i>market.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>鉴于美联储正在进行的资产负债表操作，投资者完全相信他们有能力免受经济衰退的影响。</li><li>与往常一样，投资大众相信未来的收益将证明在融化期间价格上涨是合理的。从来都不是那样的。</li><li>虽然在融化持续期间利用它是至关重要的，但不要过于自满“这次不同了”。</li></ul>是<i>“市场融化？”</i>这是我从我的同事那里收到的问题<i>少废话投资。</i>考虑到投资者认为的持续增长，这是一个很好的问题<i>“没有风险”</i>市场。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, we need a definition of precisely what constitutes a melt-up.</p><p><blockquote>当然，我们需要一个准确定义什么是融化。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“A melt-up is a sustained and often unexpected improvement in the investment performance of an asset or asset class, driven partly</i>  <i><b>by a stampede of investors who don’t want to miss out on its rise,</b></i>  <i>rather than by fundamental improvements in the economy.“</i>–  <i>Investopedia</i>  Currently, there is sufficient evidence to support the idea of an exuberant market.<b><i>As noted previously:</i></b></p><p><blockquote><i>他说：“熔断是指一项资产或资产类别的投资表现持续且往往出乎意料的改善，部分原因是</i><i><b>不想错过其上涨机会的投资者蜂拥而至，</b></i><i>而不是经济的根本改善。”</i>–<i>投资百科</i>目前，有足够的证据支持市场繁荣的观点。<b><i>如前所述：</i></b></blockquote></p><p>   <i>“Near peaks of market cycles, investors become swept up by the underlying exuberance. That exuberance breeds the “rationalization” that “this time is different.” So how do you know the market is exuberant currently? Via Sentiment Trader:”</i>    <i>‘This type of market activity is an indication that markets have returned their ‘enthusiasm’ stage. Such is characterized by:’</i>  <ul>  <li><b><i>High optimism</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Easy credit (too easy, with loose terms)</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>A rush of initial and secondary offerings</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Risky stocks outperforming</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Stretched valuations</i></b></li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff8de3a84084162ca86b415584bbf793\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><i>“在市场周期接近峰值时，投资者会被潜在的繁荣所席卷。这种繁荣滋生了“合理化”，即“这次不同了”。那么，你如何知道市场目前是繁荣的呢？通过情绪交易者：”</i><i>这种类型的市场活动表明市场已经回到了“热情”阶段。其特征在于：</i><ul><li><b><i>高度乐观</i></b></li><li><b><i>宽松信贷（太宽松，条款宽松）</i></b></li><li><b><i>首次和二次发行热潮</i></b></li><li><b><i>风险股跑赢大盘</i></b></li><li><b><i>估值过高</i></b></li></ul></blockquote></p><p> However, while one would expect individuals to exhibit caution in such an environment, the opposite is true. Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.</p><p><blockquote>然而，虽然人们会期望个人在这样的环境中表现出谨慎，但事实恰恰相反。鉴于美联储正在进行的资产负债表操作，投资者完全相信他们有能力免受经济衰退的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Visualization Of A Market Melting-Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场融化的可视化</b></blockquote></p><p> It is often easier to visualize something rather than explain it.<b>Since 1900, only two previous market periods qualify as a melt-up: 1920-1929 and 1995-2000.</b>The chart below shows both periods in terms of price.</p><p><blockquote>想象某事通常比解释它更容易。<b>自1900年以来，只有两个市场时期符合熔化的条件：1920-1929年和1995-2000年。</b>下图显示了这两个时期的价格。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a218c7efe2ebd874d05c9ff7dd564436\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f193c9c32d55747bf7ff511c2f9fd53\" tg-width=\"793\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> However, the melt-up is also visually represented by the incredibly sharp rise in valuations. Such is essential because earnings are not rising at a fast enough clip to support higher prices.<b>As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，估值的大幅上涨也直观地体现了这种融化。这一点至关重要，因为盈利增长速度不足以支撑价格上涨。<b>与往常一样，投资大众相信未来的收益将证明在融化期间价格上涨是合理的。从来都不是那样的。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c69e418d5a19d6fd03b305ab111e3be3\" tg-width=\"794\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af03d3bbd071b8edfdf3a19e2c7b0bcd\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We can compare those two previous periods with the current advance from the March 2020 lows. Again, we see a very similar sharp advance in price combined with a surge in valuations. As expected, investors are currently hoping that future earnings will rise sharply enough to justify current prices. However, the justification for paying high prices is the Federal Reserve’s ongoing balance sheet expansion.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以将前两个时期与当前从2020年3月低点的上涨进行比较。我们再次看到非常相似的价格大幅上涨和估值飙升。正如预期的那样，投资者目前希望未来收益将大幅上涨，足以证明当前价格的合理性。然而，支付高价的理由是美联储持续的资产负债表扩张。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3562aea27b24ad4921d0f5cd497e072\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"444\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The following chart looks that the price advance and valuation measures a little differently. It shows the current deviation from the long-term exponential growth trend. Not surprisingly, during a market<i>“melt-up,”</i>there is a rapid deviation from the growth trend matching the acceleration in valuations.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示，价格上涨和估值指标略有不同。它显示了当前与长期指数增长趋势的背离。毫不奇怪，在市场期间<i>“融化。”</i>与估值加速相匹配的增长趋势出现了快速背离。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1419cf4b2afdcdc0f61e0cad862f498d\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The problem with market<i>“melt-ups”</i>is not the melt-up itself but what always follows.</p><p><blockquote>市场的问题<i>“融化”</i>不是融化本身，而是随之而来的一切。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Melting-Up Leads To Melting-Down</b></p><p><blockquote><b>熔化导致熔化</b></blockquote></p><p> A market melting-up is exciting while it lasts. During melt-ups, investors begin to rationalize why<i>“this time is different.”</i>They start taking on excess leverage to try and capitalize on the rapid advance in prices, and fundamentals take a back seat to price momentum.</p><p><blockquote>市场融化持续下去是令人兴奋的。在熔断期间，投资者开始合理化原因<i>“这次不一样。”</i>他们开始过度杠杆，试图利用价格的快速上涨，基本面让位于价格动能。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Market melt-ups are all about<i>“psychology.”</i><b>Historically, whatever has been the catalyst to spark the disregard of risk is readily witnessed in the corresponding surge in price and valuations.</b>The chart below shows the long-term deviations in relative strength, deviations, and valuations. The previous<i>‘melt-up”</i>periods should be easy to spot when compared with the advance currently.</p><p><blockquote>市场融化都是关于<i>“心理学。”</i><b>从历史上看，无论引发忽视风险的催化剂是什么，都很容易在价格和估值的相应飙升中看到。</b>下图显示了相对强度、偏差和估值的长期偏差。上一篇<i>“融化”</i>与目前的进展相比，时期应该很容易发现。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc04cb25c0199dd17475a551a5dd7ec1\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Given that current extensions match only a few rare periods in history, a couple of points should be readily apparent.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于目前的延期仅与历史上少数罕见的时期相匹配，有几点应该是显而易见的。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><b><i>Melt-ups can longer than logic would predict.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>The prevailing psychology is always “this time is different.”</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Valuations are dismissed in exchange for measures of momentum and forward expectations.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Investors take on excess leverage and risk in order to participate in a seemingly “can’t lose” market.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Lastly, and inevitably, “melt-ups” end and always in the worst possible outcomes.</i></b></li> </ol> It is essential to recognize the markets are in a<i>“melt-up,</i>” and the duration of that event is unknowable. Therefore, investors need a strategy to participate in the advance and mitigate the damage from the eventual<i>“melting-down.”</i></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><b><i>融化的时间可能比逻辑预测的要长。</i></b></li><li><b><i>普遍的心理总是“这次不一样了”。</i></b></li><li><b><i>估值被驳回，以换取动量和前瞻性预期的衡量标准。</i></b></li><li><b><i>投资者为了参与一个看似“输不起”的市场，承担了过多的杠杆和风险。</i></b></li><li><b><i>最后，不可避免的是，“融化”以最糟糕的结果告终。</i></b></li></ol>必须认识到市场正处于<i>“融化，</i>“而且该事件的持续时间是未知的。因此，投资者需要一种策略来参与提前并减轻最终的损失<i>“熔化。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Surviving The Melt-Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在融化中幸存下来</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>As noted, none of this means the next</b><b><i>“bear market”</i></b><b>is lurking.</b>Given that a market melting-up is a function of psychology, they can last longer and go further than logic would predict. What is required to “<i>end”</i>a melt-up is an unanticipated exogenous event that changes psychology from bullish to bearish. Such is when the stampede for the exits occurs, and prices decline very quickly.</p><p><blockquote><b>如上所述，这些都不意味着下一个</b><b><i>“熊市”</i></b><b>正在潜伏。</b>鉴于市场融化是心理作用，它们可以持续更长时间，走得比逻辑预测的更远。需要什么“<i>结束“</i>融化是一种意想不到的外生事件，它将心理从看涨转变为看跌。这就是人们蜂拥退出的时候，价格会迅速下跌。</blockquote></p><p> As such, investors need a set of guidelines to participate in the market advance. But, of course, the hard part is keeping those gains when corrections inevitably occur.</p><p><blockquote>因此，投资者需要一套指导方针来参与市场上涨。但是，当然，困难的部分是在不可避免地发生调整时保持这些收益。</blockquote></p><p> As portfolio managers for our clients, such is precisely the approach we must take. Accordingly, I have provided a general overview of the process that we employ.</p><p><blockquote>作为客户的投资组合经理，这正是我们必须采取的方法。因此，我提供了我们采用的流程的总体概述。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><i><b>Tighten up stop-loss levels</b></i><i>to current support levels for each position.(Provides identifiable exit points when the market reverses.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Hedge portfolios</b></i><i>against major market declines.(Non-correlated assets, short-market positions, index put options)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Take profits</b></i><i>in positions that have been big winners(Rebalancing overbought or extended positions to capture gains but continue to participate in the advance.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Sell laggards</b></i><i>and losers</i>.<i>(If something isn’t working in a market melt-up, it most likely won’t work during a broad decline. Better to eliminate the risk early.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Raise cash</b></i><i>and rebalance portfolios to target weightings.(Rebalancing risk on a regular basis keeps hidden risks somewhat mitigated.)</i></li> </ol> <b>Notice, nothing in there says,</b><b><i>“sell everything and go to cash.”</i></b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><i><b>收紧止损水平</b></i><i>每个头寸的当前支撑位。（当市场反转时提供可识别的退出点。）</i></li><li><i><b>对冲投资组合</b></i><i>（非相关资产、空头市场头寸、指数看跌期权）</i></li><li><i><b>获利了结</b></i><i>在已经成为大赢家的头寸中（重新平衡超买或扩展头寸以获取收益，但继续参与上涨。）</i></li><li><i><b>出售落后者</b></i><i>和失败者</i>.<i>（如果某些东西在市场融化时不起作用，那么在广泛下跌时很可能也不会起作用。最好尽早消除风险。）</i></li><li><i><b>筹集现金</b></i><i>并重新平衡投资组合以达到目标权重。（定期重新平衡风险可以在一定程度上减轻隐藏的风险。）</i></li></ol><b>注意，里面没有任何东西说，</b><b><i>“卖掉所有东西，去兑现。”</i></b></blockquote></p><p> There will be a time to raise significant levels of cash. A good portfolio management strategy will automatically ensure that<i>“stop-loss”</i>levels get triggered, exposure decreases, and cash levels rise when the selling begins.</p><p><blockquote>将会有一段时间来筹集大量现金。一个好的投资组合管理策略将自动确保<i>“止损”</i>当出售开始时，水平被触发，风险减少，现金水平上升。</blockquote></p><p> While it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent<i>“this time is different.”</i></p><p><blockquote>虽然有必要在融化持续期间利用它，但不要过于自满<i>“这次不一样。”</i></blockquote></p><p> It likely isn’t.</p><p><blockquote>很可能不是。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457469-technically-speaking-is-the-market-melting-up\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457469-technically-speaking-is-the-market-melting-up","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198528044","content_text":"Summary\n\nGiven the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.\nAs is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.\nWhile it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent “this time is different”.\n\nIs the“market melting-up?”Such was the question I received from my colleague atCut The Crap Investing.It is an excellent question given the relentless increase in what investors believe is a“no risk”market.\nOf course, we need a definition of precisely what constitutes a melt-up.\n\n“A melt-up is a sustained and often unexpected improvement in the investment performance of an asset or asset class, driven partly\nby a stampede of investors who don’t want to miss out on its rise,\nrather than by fundamental improvements in the economy.“–\n Investopedia\n\nCurrently, there is sufficient evidence to support the idea of an exuberant market.As noted previously:\n\n“Near peaks of market cycles, investors become swept up by the underlying exuberance. That exuberance breeds the “rationalization” that “this time is different.” So how do you know the market is exuberant currently? Via Sentiment Trader:”\n\n\n‘This type of market activity is an indication that markets have returned their ‘enthusiasm’ stage. Such is characterized by:’\n\n\nHigh optimism\nEasy credit (too easy, with loose terms)\nA rush of initial and secondary offerings\nRisky stocks outperforming\nStretched valuations\n\n\nHowever, while one would expect individuals to exhibit caution in such an environment, the opposite is true. Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.\nA Visualization Of A Market Melting-Up\nIt is often easier to visualize something rather than explain it.Since 1900, only two previous market periods qualify as a melt-up: 1920-1929 and 1995-2000.The chart below shows both periods in terms of price.\n\nHowever, the melt-up is also visually represented by the incredibly sharp rise in valuations. Such is essential because earnings are not rising at a fast enough clip to support higher prices.As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.\n\nWe can compare those two previous periods with the current advance from the March 2020 lows. Again, we see a very similar sharp advance in price combined with a surge in valuations. As expected, investors are currently hoping that future earnings will rise sharply enough to justify current prices. However, the justification for paying high prices is the Federal Reserve’s ongoing balance sheet expansion.\n\nThe following chart looks that the price advance and valuation measures a little differently. It shows the current deviation from the long-term exponential growth trend. Not surprisingly, during a market“melt-up,”there is a rapid deviation from the growth trend matching the acceleration in valuations.\n\nThe problem with market“melt-ups”is not the melt-up itself but what always follows.\nMelting-Up Leads To Melting-Down\nA market melting-up is exciting while it lasts. During melt-ups, investors begin to rationalize why“this time is different.”They start taking on excess leverage to try and capitalize on the rapid advance in prices, and fundamentals take a back seat to price momentum.\nMarket melt-ups are all about“psychology.”Historically, whatever has been the catalyst to spark the disregard of risk is readily witnessed in the corresponding surge in price and valuations.The chart below shows the long-term deviations in relative strength, deviations, and valuations. The previous‘melt-up”periods should be easy to spot when compared with the advance currently.\n\nGiven that current extensions match only a few rare periods in history, a couple of points should be readily apparent.\n\nMelt-ups can longer than logic would predict.\nThe prevailing psychology is always “this time is different.”\nValuations are dismissed in exchange for measures of momentum and forward expectations.\nInvestors take on excess leverage and risk in order to participate in a seemingly “can’t lose” market.\nLastly, and inevitably, “melt-ups” end and always in the worst possible outcomes.\n\nIt is essential to recognize the markets are in a“melt-up,” and the duration of that event is unknowable. Therefore, investors need a strategy to participate in the advance and mitigate the damage from the eventual“melting-down.”\nSurviving The Melt-Up\nAs noted, none of this means the next“bear market”is lurking.Given that a market melting-up is a function of psychology, they can last longer and go further than logic would predict. What is required to “end”a melt-up is an unanticipated exogenous event that changes psychology from bullish to bearish. Such is when the stampede for the exits occurs, and prices decline very quickly.\nAs such, investors need a set of guidelines to participate in the market advance. But, of course, the hard part is keeping those gains when corrections inevitably occur.\nAs portfolio managers for our clients, such is precisely the approach we must take. Accordingly, I have provided a general overview of the process that we employ.\n\nTighten up stop-loss levelsto current support levels for each position.(Provides identifiable exit points when the market reverses.)\nHedge portfoliosagainst major market declines.(Non-correlated assets, short-market positions, index put options)\nTake profitsin positions that have been big winners(Rebalancing overbought or extended positions to capture gains but continue to participate in the advance.)\nSell laggardsand losers.(If something isn’t working in a market melt-up, it most likely won’t work during a broad decline. Better to eliminate the risk early.)\nRaise cashand rebalance portfolios to target weightings.(Rebalancing risk on a regular basis keeps hidden risks somewhat mitigated.)\n\nNotice, nothing in there says,“sell everything and go to cash.”\nThere will be a time to raise significant levels of cash. A good portfolio management strategy will automatically ensure that“stop-loss”levels get triggered, exposure decreases, and cash levels rise when the selling begins.\nWhile it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent“this time is different.”\nIt likely isn’t.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":646,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":868620711,"gmtCreate":1632642169733,"gmtModify":1632647005241,"author":{"id":"3579599009721057","authorId":"3579599009721057","name":"leddjy","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579599009721057","authorIdStr":"3579599009721057"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Happy Sunday all!","listText":"Happy Sunday all!","text":"Happy Sunday all!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/868620711","repostId":"2170146216","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":353,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":887293693,"gmtCreate":1632038889812,"gmtModify":1632803174165,"author":{"id":"3579599009721057","authorId":"3579599009721057","name":"leddjy","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579599009721057","authorIdStr":"3579599009721057"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Happy Sunday all!","listText":"Happy Sunday all!","text":"Happy Sunday all!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/887293693","repostId":"1198486138","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":565,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":887943471,"gmtCreate":1631965103093,"gmtModify":1632805055636,"author":{"id":"3579599009721057","authorId":"3579599009721057","name":"leddjy","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579599009721057","authorIdStr":"3579599009721057"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good night!","listText":"Good night!","text":"Good night!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/887943471","repostId":"1171558890","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1171558890","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631921912,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1171558890?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-18 07:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US IPO Week Ahead: Software, consumer products, and payment tech lead a diverse 14 IPO week<blockquote>美国IPO周：软件、消费品和支付技术引领多元化14周IPO周</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171558890","media":"renaissancecap...","summary":"Summer may be over, but the IPO market is just heating up as 14 IPOs are slated to raise $5.3 billio","content":"<p>Summer may be over, but the IPO market is just heating up as 14 IPOs are slated to raise $5.3 billion in the week ahead. The diverse group includes software, consumer products, payment technology, and more.</p><p><blockquote>夏季可能已经结束，但IPO市场刚刚升温，未来一周将有14起IPO筹集53亿美元。多元化的群体包括软件、消费品、支付技术等等。</blockquote></p><p> The largest deal of the week,<b>Freshworks</b>(FRSH) plans to raise $855 million at a $9.6 billion market cap. The company’s core product is its customer support software, and it also offers IT service management software and a nascent competitor to CRM solutions. While losses are expected to increase with S&amp;M spending, Freshworks has delivered solid growth and 100%+ net dollar-based revenue retention as of 6/30/21.</p><p><blockquote>本周最大的交易，<b>Freshworks</b>(FRSH)计划以96亿美元的市值筹集8.55亿美元。该公司的核心产品是其客户支持软件，它还提供IT服务管理软件和CRM解决方案的新兴竞争对手。虽然亏损预计会随着S&amp;M支出的增加而增加，但截至2011年6月30日，Freshworks实现了稳健的增长和100%以上的净美元收入保留率。</blockquote></p><p> Canadian consumer products company&nbsp;<b>Knowlton Development</b>(KDC) plans to raise $800 million at a $3.1 billion market cap. Over the past three years, Knowlton has been responsible for co-developing 9,000+ products across a variety of categories, and its products are sold by its brand partners in 70+ countries. Despite using offering proceeds to pay down debt, Knowlton will be leveraged post-IPO.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大消费品公司<b>诺尔顿发展</b>(KDC)计划以31亿美元的市值筹集8亿美元。在过去的三年里，Knowlton负责共同开发了9,000多种产品，其产品由70多个国家的品牌合作伙伴销售。尽管诺尔顿将使用发行收益来偿还债务，但IPO后仍将发挥杠杆作用。</blockquote></p><p> Restaurant payment processor&nbsp;<b>Toast</b>(TOST) plans to raise $685 million at a $17.9 billion market cap. Toast provides a suite of integrated payment and software solutions that are designed to streamline restaurant operations. The company grew ARR over 100% in the 1H21, though it has historically been unprofitable, and growth could slow as tailwinds from restaurants reopening abate.</p><p><blockquote>餐厅支付处理器<b>吐司</b>(TOST)计划以179亿美元的市值筹集6.85亿美元。Toast提供一套集成支付和软件解决方案，旨在简化餐厅运营。该公司在2021年上半年的ARR增长率超过100%，尽管它历来没有盈利，而且随着餐厅重新开业的推动力减弱，增长可能会放缓。</blockquote></p><p> Global money transfer firm&nbsp;<b>Remitly Global</b>(RELY) plans to raise $487 million at a $7.5 billion market cap. Remitly provides digital financial services for immigrants and their families in over 135 countries, and it has expanded its core cross-border remittance product to over 1,700 corridors worldwide. The company has demonstrated growth and margin improvement, though it remains unprofitable.</p><p><blockquote>全球汇款公司<b>全球汇款</b>(RELY)计划以75亿美元的市值筹集4.87亿美元。Remitly为超过135个国家的移民及其家人提供数字金融服务，并已将其核心跨境汇款产品扩展到全球1,700多个走廊。该公司已实现增长和利润率提高，但仍未盈利。</blockquote></p><p> Software firm&nbsp;<b>Clearwater Analytics</b>(CWAN) plans to raise $450 million at a $3.7 billion market cap. Clearwater provides its 1,000+ clients with cloud-native software that allows them to simplify their investment accounting operations, and the company has a 100% recurring revenue model. A new investor and certain existing shareholders intend to purchase $150 million worth of shares in the IPO.</p><p><blockquote>软件公司<b>清水分析</b>(CWAN)计划以37亿美元的市值筹集4.5亿美元。Clearwater为其1,000多家客户提供云原生软件，使他们能够简化投资会计操作，并且该公司拥有100%的经常性收入模式。一位新投资者和某些现有股东打算在IPO中购买价值1.5亿美元的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Food company&nbsp;<b>Sovos Brands</b>(SOVO) plans to raise $350 million at a $1.5 billion market cap. Formed by Advent International, Sovos Brands offers a select group of acquired premium food brands. According to the company, its largest brand of products, Rao's, included the #1 selling SKU in the pasta and pizza sauce category. Profitable with solid growth, Sovos will be leveraged post-IPO.</p><p><blockquote>食品公司<b>索沃斯品牌</b>(SOVO)计划以15亿美元的市值筹集3.5亿美元。Sovos Brands由Advent International组建，提供一组精选的收购优质食品品牌。据该公司称，其最大的产品品牌Rao’s是意大利面和披萨酱类别中销量第一的SKU。Sovos盈利稳健增长，IPO后将发挥杠杆作用。</blockquote></p><p> Customer engagement software provider&nbsp;<b>EngageSmart</b>(ESMT) plans to raise $349 million at a $4.1 billion market cap. The company provides software that simplifies online workflows like paperless billing, electronic payment processing, scheduling, and client communication. While growth may slow post-pandemic, EngageSmart has a sticky customer based and a long track record of profitability.</p><p><blockquote>客户参与软件提供商<b>参与智能</b>(ESMT)计划以41亿美元的市值筹集3.49亿美元。该公司提供简化在线工作流程的软件，如无纸化计费、电子支付处理、日程安排和客户沟通。虽然大流行后增长可能会放缓，但EngageSmart拥有粘性客户群和长期的盈利记录。</blockquote></p><p> Hiring solutions provider&nbsp;<b>Sterling Check</b>(STER) plans to raise $300 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. Sterling is one of the leading US providers of background checks for corporate and government customers. The company serves more than 50% of the Fortune 100, often with exclusive contracts, though it operates in a highly competitive market.</p><p><blockquote>招聘解决方案提供商<b>英镑支票</b>(STER)计划以21亿美元的市值筹集3亿美元。Sterling是美国领先的企业和政府客户背景调查提供商之一。尽管该公司在竞争激烈的市场中运营，但该公司为超过50%的财富100强企业提供服务，通常签订独家合同。</blockquote></p><p> Jewelry retailer&nbsp;<b>Brilliant Earth Group</b>(BRLT) plans to raise $250 million at a $1.4 billion. Brilliant Earth is a digital-first jewelry company and a global leader in ethically sourced fine jewelry. The company has sold to consumers in all US states and over 50 countries, and has served over 370,000 customers through its e-commerce platform and 13 showrooms.</p><p><blockquote>珠宝零售商<b>辉煌地球集团</b>(BRLT)计划以14亿澳元筹集2.5亿美元。Brilliant Earth是一家数字优先的珠宝公司，也是道德采购高级珠宝的全球领导者。该公司已向美国所有州和50多个国家的消费者销售产品，并通过其电子商务平台和13个展厅为超过370,000名客户提供服务。</blockquote></p><p> Online fashion platform&nbsp;<b>a.k.a. Brands</b>(AKA) plans to raise $250 million at a $2.3 billion market cap. a.k.a. acquires digitally-focused fashion brands oriented toward millennial and Gen Z consumers, starting with its acquisition of Princess Polly in 2018. The company has successfully expanded Princess Polly and has a long runway to grow its brands in the US, but its M&amp;A strategy carries execution risk.</p><p><blockquote>线上时尚平台<b>又名品牌</b>(AKA)计划以23亿美元的市值筹集2.5亿美元。a.k.a.收购面向千禧一代和Z世代消费者的数字化时尚品牌，从2018年收购Princess Polly开始。该公司已经成功扩张了波利公主，并且在美国发展品牌还有很长的路要走，但其并购战略存在执行风险。</blockquote></p><p> COVID-19 test maker&nbsp;<b>Cue Health</b>(HLTH) plans to raise $200 million at a $2.4 billion market cap. Cue’s first commercially available diagnostic test for use with its Cue Health Monitoring System is its COVID-19 Test Kit, which has been authorized by two EUAs. Cue has five additional Test Kits in late-stage technical development, for which it expects to begin seeking FDA authorization or clearance in the 2H22.</p><p><blockquote>COVID-19测试制造商<b>提示健康</b>(HLTH)计划以24亿美元的市值筹集2亿美元。Cue首个用于其Cue健康监测系统的商用诊断测试是其COVID-19检测试剂盒，该试剂盒已获得两个EUA的授权。Cue还有另外五个测试套件处于后期技术开发阶段，预计将在2022年下半年开始寻求FDA授权或批准。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> London-listed crypto mining company&nbsp;<b>Argo Blockchain</b>(ARBK) plans to raise $138 million at an $855 million market cap. Argo states that it is a leading blockchain technology company focused on large-scale mining of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Argo has a fleet of more than 21,000 purpose-built computers (mining machines) and can generate more than 1,075 petahash per second.</p><p><blockquote>伦敦上市的加密货币挖矿公司<b>Argo区块链</b>(ARBK)计划以8.55亿美元的市值筹集1.38亿美元。Argo表示，它是一家领先的区块链技术公司，专注于比特币和其他加密货币的大规模挖掘。Argo拥有超过21,000台专用计算机（矿机），每秒可生成超过1,075 petahash。</blockquote></p><p> Personalized supplements seller&nbsp;<b>Thorne Healthtech</b>(THRN) plans to raise $126 million at an $892 million market cap. The company’s vertically integrated brands, Thorne and Onegevity, provide actionable insights and personalized data, products, and services. Profitable with strong growth, Thorne has a base of more than 3 million customers.</p><p><blockquote>个性化补充剂卖家<b>索恩健康科技</b>(THRN)计划以8.92亿美元的市值筹集1.26亿美元。该公司的垂直整合品牌Thorne和Onegevity提供可操作的见解和个性化数据、产品和服务。Thorne盈利强劲增长，拥有超过300万客户群。</blockquote></p><p> Canadian bank&nbsp;<b>VersaBank</b>(VBNK) plans to raise $50 million at a $269 million market cap. VersaBank is a Canadian Schedule I chartered bank and states that it is one of the world's first fully digital financial institutions. As of July 31, 2021, VersaBank had $1.8 billion in assets, $1.6 billion in loans, $1.5 billion in deposits, and $202 million in stockholders' equity.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大银行<b>VersaBank</b>(VBNK)计划以2.69亿美元的市值筹集5000万美元。VersaBank是加拿大附表一特许银行，并表示它是世界上首批完全数字化的金融机构之一。截至2021年7月31日，VersaBank拥有18亿美元资产、16亿美元贷款、15亿美元存款和2.02亿美元股东权益。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1619493174116","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US IPO Week Ahead: Software, consumer products, and payment tech lead a diverse 14 IPO week<blockquote>美国IPO周：软件、消费品和支付技术引领多元化14周IPO周</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS IPO Week Ahead: Software, consumer products, and payment tech lead a diverse 14 IPO week<blockquote>美国IPO周：软件、消费品和支付技术引领多元化14周IPO周</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">renaissancecap...</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-18 07:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Summer may be over, but the IPO market is just heating up as 14 IPOs are slated to raise $5.3 billion in the week ahead. The diverse group includes software, consumer products, payment technology, and more.</p><p><blockquote>夏季可能已经结束，但IPO市场刚刚升温，未来一周将有14起IPO筹集53亿美元。多元化的群体包括软件、消费品、支付技术等等。</blockquote></p><p> The largest deal of the week,<b>Freshworks</b>(FRSH) plans to raise $855 million at a $9.6 billion market cap. The company’s core product is its customer support software, and it also offers IT service management software and a nascent competitor to CRM solutions. While losses are expected to increase with S&amp;M spending, Freshworks has delivered solid growth and 100%+ net dollar-based revenue retention as of 6/30/21.</p><p><blockquote>本周最大的交易，<b>Freshworks</b>(FRSH)计划以96亿美元的市值筹集8.55亿美元。该公司的核心产品是其客户支持软件，它还提供IT服务管理软件和CRM解决方案的新兴竞争对手。虽然亏损预计会随着S&amp;M支出的增加而增加，但截至2011年6月30日，Freshworks实现了稳健的增长和100%以上的净美元收入保留率。</blockquote></p><p> Canadian consumer products company&nbsp;<b>Knowlton Development</b>(KDC) plans to raise $800 million at a $3.1 billion market cap. Over the past three years, Knowlton has been responsible for co-developing 9,000+ products across a variety of categories, and its products are sold by its brand partners in 70+ countries. Despite using offering proceeds to pay down debt, Knowlton will be leveraged post-IPO.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大消费品公司<b>诺尔顿发展</b>(KDC)计划以31亿美元的市值筹集8亿美元。在过去的三年里，Knowlton负责共同开发了9,000多种产品，其产品由70多个国家的品牌合作伙伴销售。尽管诺尔顿将使用发行收益来偿还债务，但IPO后仍将发挥杠杆作用。</blockquote></p><p> Restaurant payment processor&nbsp;<b>Toast</b>(TOST) plans to raise $685 million at a $17.9 billion market cap. Toast provides a suite of integrated payment and software solutions that are designed to streamline restaurant operations. The company grew ARR over 100% in the 1H21, though it has historically been unprofitable, and growth could slow as tailwinds from restaurants reopening abate.</p><p><blockquote>餐厅支付处理器<b>吐司</b>(TOST)计划以179亿美元的市值筹集6.85亿美元。Toast提供一套集成支付和软件解决方案，旨在简化餐厅运营。该公司在2021年上半年的ARR增长率超过100%，尽管它历来没有盈利，而且随着餐厅重新开业的推动力减弱，增长可能会放缓。</blockquote></p><p> Global money transfer firm&nbsp;<b>Remitly Global</b>(RELY) plans to raise $487 million at a $7.5 billion market cap. Remitly provides digital financial services for immigrants and their families in over 135 countries, and it has expanded its core cross-border remittance product to over 1,700 corridors worldwide. The company has demonstrated growth and margin improvement, though it remains unprofitable.</p><p><blockquote>全球汇款公司<b>全球汇款</b>(RELY)计划以75亿美元的市值筹集4.87亿美元。Remitly为超过135个国家的移民及其家人提供数字金融服务，并已将其核心跨境汇款产品扩展到全球1,700多个走廊。该公司已实现增长和利润率提高，但仍未盈利。</blockquote></p><p> Software firm&nbsp;<b>Clearwater Analytics</b>(CWAN) plans to raise $450 million at a $3.7 billion market cap. Clearwater provides its 1,000+ clients with cloud-native software that allows them to simplify their investment accounting operations, and the company has a 100% recurring revenue model. A new investor and certain existing shareholders intend to purchase $150 million worth of shares in the IPO.</p><p><blockquote>软件公司<b>清水分析</b>(CWAN)计划以37亿美元的市值筹集4.5亿美元。Clearwater为其1,000多家客户提供云原生软件，使他们能够简化投资会计操作，并且该公司拥有100%的经常性收入模式。一位新投资者和某些现有股东打算在IPO中购买价值1.5亿美元的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Food company&nbsp;<b>Sovos Brands</b>(SOVO) plans to raise $350 million at a $1.5 billion market cap. Formed by Advent International, Sovos Brands offers a select group of acquired premium food brands. According to the company, its largest brand of products, Rao's, included the #1 selling SKU in the pasta and pizza sauce category. Profitable with solid growth, Sovos will be leveraged post-IPO.</p><p><blockquote>食品公司<b>索沃斯品牌</b>(SOVO)计划以15亿美元的市值筹集3.5亿美元。Sovos Brands由Advent International组建，提供一组精选的收购优质食品品牌。据该公司称，其最大的产品品牌Rao’s是意大利面和披萨酱类别中销量第一的SKU。Sovos盈利稳健增长，IPO后将发挥杠杆作用。</blockquote></p><p> Customer engagement software provider&nbsp;<b>EngageSmart</b>(ESMT) plans to raise $349 million at a $4.1 billion market cap. The company provides software that simplifies online workflows like paperless billing, electronic payment processing, scheduling, and client communication. While growth may slow post-pandemic, EngageSmart has a sticky customer based and a long track record of profitability.</p><p><blockquote>客户参与软件提供商<b>参与智能</b>(ESMT)计划以41亿美元的市值筹集3.49亿美元。该公司提供简化在线工作流程的软件，如无纸化计费、电子支付处理、日程安排和客户沟通。虽然大流行后增长可能会放缓，但EngageSmart拥有粘性客户群和长期的盈利记录。</blockquote></p><p> Hiring solutions provider&nbsp;<b>Sterling Check</b>(STER) plans to raise $300 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. Sterling is one of the leading US providers of background checks for corporate and government customers. The company serves more than 50% of the Fortune 100, often with exclusive contracts, though it operates in a highly competitive market.</p><p><blockquote>招聘解决方案提供商<b>英镑支票</b>(STER)计划以21亿美元的市值筹集3亿美元。Sterling是美国领先的企业和政府客户背景调查提供商之一。尽管该公司在竞争激烈的市场中运营，但该公司为超过50%的财富100强企业提供服务，通常签订独家合同。</blockquote></p><p> Jewelry retailer&nbsp;<b>Brilliant Earth Group</b>(BRLT) plans to raise $250 million at a $1.4 billion. Brilliant Earth is a digital-first jewelry company and a global leader in ethically sourced fine jewelry. The company has sold to consumers in all US states and over 50 countries, and has served over 370,000 customers through its e-commerce platform and 13 showrooms.</p><p><blockquote>珠宝零售商<b>辉煌地球集团</b>(BRLT)计划以14亿澳元筹集2.5亿美元。Brilliant Earth是一家数字优先的珠宝公司，也是道德采购高级珠宝的全球领导者。该公司已向美国所有州和50多个国家的消费者销售产品，并通过其电子商务平台和13个展厅为超过370,000名客户提供服务。</blockquote></p><p> Online fashion platform&nbsp;<b>a.k.a. Brands</b>(AKA) plans to raise $250 million at a $2.3 billion market cap. a.k.a. acquires digitally-focused fashion brands oriented toward millennial and Gen Z consumers, starting with its acquisition of Princess Polly in 2018. The company has successfully expanded Princess Polly and has a long runway to grow its brands in the US, but its M&amp;A strategy carries execution risk.</p><p><blockquote>线上时尚平台<b>又名品牌</b>(AKA)计划以23亿美元的市值筹集2.5亿美元。a.k.a.收购面向千禧一代和Z世代消费者的数字化时尚品牌，从2018年收购Princess Polly开始。该公司已经成功扩张了波利公主，并且在美国发展品牌还有很长的路要走，但其并购战略存在执行风险。</blockquote></p><p> COVID-19 test maker&nbsp;<b>Cue Health</b>(HLTH) plans to raise $200 million at a $2.4 billion market cap. Cue’s first commercially available diagnostic test for use with its Cue Health Monitoring System is its COVID-19 Test Kit, which has been authorized by two EUAs. Cue has five additional Test Kits in late-stage technical development, for which it expects to begin seeking FDA authorization or clearance in the 2H22.</p><p><blockquote>COVID-19测试制造商<b>提示健康</b>(HLTH)计划以24亿美元的市值筹集2亿美元。Cue首个用于其Cue健康监测系统的商用诊断测试是其COVID-19检测试剂盒，该试剂盒已获得两个EUA的授权。Cue还有另外五个测试套件处于后期技术开发阶段，预计将在2022年下半年开始寻求FDA授权或批准。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> London-listed crypto mining company&nbsp;<b>Argo Blockchain</b>(ARBK) plans to raise $138 million at an $855 million market cap. Argo states that it is a leading blockchain technology company focused on large-scale mining of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Argo has a fleet of more than 21,000 purpose-built computers (mining machines) and can generate more than 1,075 petahash per second.</p><p><blockquote>伦敦上市的加密货币挖矿公司<b>Argo区块链</b>(ARBK)计划以8.55亿美元的市值筹集1.38亿美元。Argo表示，它是一家领先的区块链技术公司，专注于比特币和其他加密货币的大规模挖掘。Argo拥有超过21,000台专用计算机（矿机），每秒可生成超过1,075 petahash。</blockquote></p><p> Personalized supplements seller&nbsp;<b>Thorne Healthtech</b>(THRN) plans to raise $126 million at an $892 million market cap. The company’s vertically integrated brands, Thorne and Onegevity, provide actionable insights and personalized data, products, and services. Profitable with strong growth, Thorne has a base of more than 3 million customers.</p><p><blockquote>个性化补充剂卖家<b>索恩健康科技</b>(THRN)计划以8.92亿美元的市值筹集1.26亿美元。该公司的垂直整合品牌Thorne和Onegevity提供可操作的见解和个性化数据、产品和服务。Thorne盈利强劲增长，拥有超过300万客户群。</blockquote></p><p> Canadian bank&nbsp;<b>VersaBank</b>(VBNK) plans to raise $50 million at a $269 million market cap. VersaBank is a Canadian Schedule I chartered bank and states that it is one of the world's first fully digital financial institutions. As of July 31, 2021, VersaBank had $1.8 billion in assets, $1.6 billion in loans, $1.5 billion in deposits, and $202 million in stockholders' equity.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大银行<b>VersaBank</b>(VBNK)计划以2.69亿美元的市值筹集5000万美元。VersaBank是加拿大附表一特许银行，并表示它是世界上首批完全数字化的金融机构之一。截至2021年7月31日，VersaBank拥有18亿美元资产、16亿美元贷款、15亿美元存款和2.02亿美元股东权益。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/86272/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-Software-consumer-products-and-payment-tech-lead-a-divers\">renaissancecap...</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CWAN":"Clearwater Analytics Holdings, Inc.","SOVO":"Sovos Brands, Inc.","RELY":"Remitly Global, Inc.","STER":"Sterling Check Corp.","FRSH":"Freshworks","TOST":"Toast, Inc.","HLTH":"Cue Health Inc.","AKA":"a.k.a. Brands Holding Corp.","BRLT":"Brilliant Earth Group, Inc.","THRN":"Thorne Healthtech","ESMT":"EngageSmart Inc.","ARBK":"Argo Blockchain Plc"},"source_url":"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/86272/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-Software-consumer-products-and-payment-tech-lead-a-divers","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171558890","content_text":"Summer may be over, but the IPO market is just heating up as 14 IPOs are slated to raise $5.3 billion in the week ahead. The diverse group includes software, consumer products, payment technology, and more.\nThe largest deal of the week,Freshworks(FRSH) plans to raise $855 million at a $9.6 billion market cap. The company’s core product is its customer support software, and it also offers IT service management software and a nascent competitor to CRM solutions. While losses are expected to increase with S&M spending, Freshworks has delivered solid growth and 100%+ net dollar-based revenue retention as of 6/30/21.\nCanadian consumer products company Knowlton Development(KDC) plans to raise $800 million at a $3.1 billion market cap. Over the past three years, Knowlton has been responsible for co-developing 9,000+ products across a variety of categories, and its products are sold by its brand partners in 70+ countries. Despite using offering proceeds to pay down debt, Knowlton will be leveraged post-IPO.\nRestaurant payment processor Toast(TOST) plans to raise $685 million at a $17.9 billion market cap. Toast provides a suite of integrated payment and software solutions that are designed to streamline restaurant operations. The company grew ARR over 100% in the 1H21, though it has historically been unprofitable, and growth could slow as tailwinds from restaurants reopening abate.\nGlobal money transfer firm Remitly Global(RELY) plans to raise $487 million at a $7.5 billion market cap. Remitly provides digital financial services for immigrants and their families in over 135 countries, and it has expanded its core cross-border remittance product to over 1,700 corridors worldwide. The company has demonstrated growth and margin improvement, though it remains unprofitable.\nSoftware firm Clearwater Analytics(CWAN) plans to raise $450 million at a $3.7 billion market cap. Clearwater provides its 1,000+ clients with cloud-native software that allows them to simplify their investment accounting operations, and the company has a 100% recurring revenue model. A new investor and certain existing shareholders intend to purchase $150 million worth of shares in the IPO.\nFood company Sovos Brands(SOVO) plans to raise $350 million at a $1.5 billion market cap. Formed by Advent International, Sovos Brands offers a select group of acquired premium food brands. According to the company, its largest brand of products, Rao's, included the #1 selling SKU in the pasta and pizza sauce category. Profitable with solid growth, Sovos will be leveraged post-IPO.\nCustomer engagement software provider EngageSmart(ESMT) plans to raise $349 million at a $4.1 billion market cap. The company provides software that simplifies online workflows like paperless billing, electronic payment processing, scheduling, and client communication. While growth may slow post-pandemic, EngageSmart has a sticky customer based and a long track record of profitability.\nHiring solutions provider Sterling Check(STER) plans to raise $300 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. Sterling is one of the leading US providers of background checks for corporate and government customers. The company serves more than 50% of the Fortune 100, often with exclusive contracts, though it operates in a highly competitive market.\nJewelry retailer Brilliant Earth Group(BRLT) plans to raise $250 million at a $1.4 billion. Brilliant Earth is a digital-first jewelry company and a global leader in ethically sourced fine jewelry. The company has sold to consumers in all US states and over 50 countries, and has served over 370,000 customers through its e-commerce platform and 13 showrooms.\nOnline fashion platform a.k.a. Brands(AKA) plans to raise $250 million at a $2.3 billion market cap. a.k.a. acquires digitally-focused fashion brands oriented toward millennial and Gen Z consumers, starting with its acquisition of Princess Polly in 2018. The company has successfully expanded Princess Polly and has a long runway to grow its brands in the US, but its M&A strategy carries execution risk.\nCOVID-19 test maker Cue Health(HLTH) plans to raise $200 million at a $2.4 billion market cap. Cue’s first commercially available diagnostic test for use with its Cue Health Monitoring System is its COVID-19 Test Kit, which has been authorized by two EUAs. Cue has five additional Test Kits in late-stage technical development, for which it expects to begin seeking FDA authorization or clearance in the 2H22.\nLondon-listed crypto mining company Argo Blockchain(ARBK) plans to raise $138 million at an $855 million market cap. Argo states that it is a leading blockchain technology company focused on large-scale mining of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Argo has a fleet of more than 21,000 purpose-built computers (mining machines) and can generate more than 1,075 petahash per second.\nPersonalized supplements seller Thorne Healthtech(THRN) plans to raise $126 million at an $892 million market cap. The company’s vertically integrated brands, Thorne and Onegevity, provide actionable insights and personalized data, products, and services. Profitable with strong growth, Thorne has a base of more than 3 million customers.\nCanadian bank VersaBank(VBNK) plans to raise $50 million at a $269 million market cap. VersaBank is a Canadian Schedule I chartered bank and states that it is one of the world's first fully digital financial institutions. As of July 31, 2021, VersaBank had $1.8 billion in assets, $1.6 billion in loans, $1.5 billion in deposits, and $202 million in stockholders' equity.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"FRSH":0.9,"RELY":0.9,"STER":0.9,"BRLT":0.9,"SOVO":0.9,"THRN":0.9,"ESMT":0.9,"CWAN":0.9,"TOST":0.9,"ARBK":0.9,"KDC":0.9,"AKA":0.9,"HLTH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":453,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":836097524,"gmtCreate":1629435379668,"gmtModify":1631892030701,"author":{"id":"3579599009721057","authorId":"3579599009721057","name":"leddjy","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579599009721057","authorIdStr":"3579599009721057"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"It's Friday!","listText":"It's Friday!","text":"It's Friday!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/836097524","repostId":"1138554810","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":474,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":839416982,"gmtCreate":1629172851646,"gmtModify":1631892030713,"author":{"id":"3579599009721057","authorId":"3579599009721057","name":"leddjy","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579599009721057","authorIdStr":"3579599009721057"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"HD, WMT earning this week","listText":"HD, WMT earning this week","text":"HD, WMT earning this week","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/839416982","repostId":"1165381771","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1165381771","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629170892,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1165381771?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-17 11:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The 2 Stocks Every Investor Should Be Watching<blockquote>每个投资者都应该关注的两只股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1165381771","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Find out what market participants will be talking about tomorrow.","content":"<p><b>Key Points</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Monday was a mixed day for stocks, which rebounded from their lowest levels of the day.</li>  <li>Two key stocks could determine the direction of the entire market on Tuesday.</li> </ul> Wall Street rebounded from early losses on Monday morning, finishing the day on a mixed note. The&nbsp;<b>Dow Jones Industrial Average</b>(DJINDICES:^DJI)and&nbsp;<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)&nbsp;managed to post modest gains, and even the&nbsp;<b>Nasdaq Composite</b>(NASDAQINDEX:^IXIC)dramatically reduced the size of its declines over the course of the day.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>周一股市涨跌互现，从当天低点反弹。</li><li>两只关键股票可能决定周二整个市场的走向。</li></ul>周一上午，华尔街从早盘的跌幅中反弹，收盘涨跌互现。The<b>道琼斯工业平均指数</b>(DJINDICES：^DJI)和<b>标普500</b>(SNPINDEX：^GSPC)成功实现小幅上涨，甚至<b>纳斯达克复合材料</b>（纳斯达克指数：^IXIC）全天跌幅大幅收窄。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb5b728c1f5236c709db3e0270dc3e75\" tg-width=\"1152\" tg-height=\"333\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>DATA SOURCE: YAHOO! FINANCE.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：雅虎！金融。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Earnings season is beginning to wind down, but there are still some high-profile stocks that have yet to report. Two of the most important stocks in the market right now will be giving their earnings results early Tuesday, and that's why investors should be watching&nbsp;<b>Home Depot</b>(NYSE:HD)&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>Walmart</b>(NYSE:WMT)extremely closely as the&nbsp;retail stocks&nbsp; prepare to release their latest financial reports.</p><p><blockquote>财报季开始接近尾声，但仍有一些备受瞩目的股票尚未公布财报。目前市场上最重要的两只股票将于周二早些时候公布盈利结果，这就是投资者应该关注的原因<b>家得宝</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：HD）和<b>沃尔玛</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：WMT）在零售股准备发布最新财务报告之际极其接近。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b731f72fd9967ccb54241783515762a\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1199\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Feeling at home</b></p><p><blockquote><b>宾至如归的感觉</b></blockquote></p><p> Home Depot was one of the stocks that saw big intraday moves on Monday. Initially falling as much as 1%, the home-improvement retailer ended up rebounding to post a better than 1% gain on the day.</p><p><blockquote>家得宝是周一盘中大幅波动的股票之一。这家家居装修零售商最初下跌1%，最终反弹，当天涨幅超过1%。</blockquote></p><p> Yet what many investors are&nbsp;anxiously awaiting is how well Home Depot can capitalize&nbsp;on continued interest in home renovation and maintenance. Most of those following the stock expect Home Depot to see at least a 10% rise in earnings during its fiscal second quarter from year-ago levels, with sales picking up 7% year over year.</p><p><blockquote>然而，许多投资者焦急等待的是家得宝如何利用人们对房屋装修和维护的持续兴趣。大多数关注该股的人预计家得宝第二财季的盈利将比去年同期至少增长10%，销售额同比增长7%。</blockquote></p><p> If those growth rates seem a little tepid in comparison to Home Depot's past performance, it's important to put last year's numbers into context. Sales a year ago soared 23% compared to the corresponding quarter in calendar 2019, as those dealing with lockdown measures made massive investments in their homes in order to weather the pandemic. Profits were up nearly 25% year over year. Now, with those investments having borne fruit, some homeowners are continuing to make improvements, but many will be satisfied with their efforts to date.</p><p><blockquote>如果与家得宝过去的业绩相比，这些增长率似乎有点不温不火，那么将去年的数据放在背景中很重要。与2019年同期相比，一年前的销售额飙升了23%，因为那些应对封锁措施的人为了抵御疫情而对房屋进行了大量投资。利润同比增长近25%。现在，随着这些投资取得了成果，一些房主正在继续改善，但许多人会对他们迄今为止的努力感到满意。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Walmart makes its move</b></p><p><blockquote><b>沃尔玛出手</b></blockquote></p><p> Shares of Walmart finished Monday up slightly less than 1%. The retailer will announce its second-quarter financial results before the market opens on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔玛股价周一收盘上涨略低于1%。该零售商将在周二开盘前公布第二季度财务业绩。</blockquote></p><p> Investors have reasonable expectations from Walmart after a blockbuster performance a year ago. Earnings should be roughly flat from the second quarter of last year, and sales are likely to ease lower by around 1% year over year. Again, comparisons are somewhat tough, as earnings jumped almost 80% in the year-ago quarter compared to the same period in calendar 2019 before the pandemic took hold.</p><p><blockquote>在一年前的重磅业绩之后，投资者对沃尔玛抱有合理的期望。盈利应与去年第二季度大致持平，销售额可能同比下降1%左右。同样，比较有些困难，因为与疫情爆发前的2019年同期相比，去年同期的盈利增长了近80%。</blockquote></p><p> There are a lot of&nbsp;uncertainties about Walmart right now. A strong economy should bolster consumer spending, but that sometimes translates into weakness for Walmart if consumers decide to spend up on pricier items from competitors like&nbsp;<b>Target</b>. Conversely, some fear that the recent rise in COVID-19 cases could start to eat into economic growth, and that seems increasingly reflected in consumer sentiment metrics.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔玛目前存在很多不确定性。强劲的经济应该会提振消费者支出，但如果消费者决定从竞争对手那里购买更昂贵的商品，例如<b>目标</b>相反，一些人担心最近COVID-19病例的增加可能会开始侵蚀经济增长，这似乎越来越多地反映在消费者信心指标中。</blockquote></p><p> From a longer-term perspective, the big question facing Walmart is whether its investments in bolstering its online e-commerce channel will pay off permanently. During the worst days of the pandemic, Walmart customers flocked to online ordering in order to get necessities. When given a choice to shop in person or online, however, it remains to be seen what Walmart shoppers will do. The numbers will say a lot about whether all of Walmart's efforts have been in vain or will produce lasting advantages.</p><p><blockquote>从长远来看，沃尔玛面临的一个大问题是，其在加强在线电子商务渠道方面的投资是否会永久获得回报。在疫情最糟糕的日子里，沃尔玛的顾客蜂拥到网上订购，以获得必需品。然而，当可以选择亲自购物或网上购物时，沃尔玛购物者会怎么做还有待观察。这些数字将充分说明沃尔玛的所有努力是徒劳还是会产生持久的优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Keep your eyes open</b></p><p><blockquote><b>睁大眼睛</b></blockquote></p><p> No matter what Home Depot and Walmart announce tomorrow, they're likely to move the entire market. With so much volatility lately, surprising news from either of these companies could have a dramatic impact on Wall Street.</p><p><blockquote>无论家得宝和沃尔玛明天宣布什么，它们都可能改变整个市场。由于最近波动如此之大，来自这两家公司的令人惊讶的消息都可能对华尔街产生巨大影响。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The 2 Stocks Every Investor Should Be Watching<blockquote>每个投资者都应该关注的两只股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe 2 Stocks Every Investor Should Be Watching<blockquote>每个投资者都应该关注的两只股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-17 11:28</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Key Points</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Monday was a mixed day for stocks, which rebounded from their lowest levels of the day.</li>  <li>Two key stocks could determine the direction of the entire market on Tuesday.</li> </ul> Wall Street rebounded from early losses on Monday morning, finishing the day on a mixed note. The&nbsp;<b>Dow Jones Industrial Average</b>(DJINDICES:^DJI)and&nbsp;<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)&nbsp;managed to post modest gains, and even the&nbsp;<b>Nasdaq Composite</b>(NASDAQINDEX:^IXIC)dramatically reduced the size of its declines over the course of the day.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>周一股市涨跌互现，从当天低点反弹。</li><li>两只关键股票可能决定周二整个市场的走向。</li></ul>周一上午，华尔街从早盘的跌幅中反弹，收盘涨跌互现。The<b>道琼斯工业平均指数</b>(DJINDICES：^DJI)和<b>标普500</b>(SNPINDEX：^GSPC)成功实现小幅上涨，甚至<b>纳斯达克复合材料</b>（纳斯达克指数：^IXIC）全天跌幅大幅收窄。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb5b728c1f5236c709db3e0270dc3e75\" tg-width=\"1152\" tg-height=\"333\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>DATA SOURCE: YAHOO! FINANCE.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：雅虎！金融。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Earnings season is beginning to wind down, but there are still some high-profile stocks that have yet to report. Two of the most important stocks in the market right now will be giving their earnings results early Tuesday, and that's why investors should be watching&nbsp;<b>Home Depot</b>(NYSE:HD)&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>Walmart</b>(NYSE:WMT)extremely closely as the&nbsp;retail stocks&nbsp; prepare to release their latest financial reports.</p><p><blockquote>财报季开始接近尾声，但仍有一些备受瞩目的股票尚未公布财报。目前市场上最重要的两只股票将于周二早些时候公布盈利结果，这就是投资者应该关注的原因<b>家得宝</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：HD）和<b>沃尔玛</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：WMT）在零售股准备发布最新财务报告之际极其接近。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b731f72fd9967ccb54241783515762a\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1199\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Feeling at home</b></p><p><blockquote><b>宾至如归的感觉</b></blockquote></p><p> Home Depot was one of the stocks that saw big intraday moves on Monday. Initially falling as much as 1%, the home-improvement retailer ended up rebounding to post a better than 1% gain on the day.</p><p><blockquote>家得宝是周一盘中大幅波动的股票之一。这家家居装修零售商最初下跌1%，最终反弹，当天涨幅超过1%。</blockquote></p><p> Yet what many investors are&nbsp;anxiously awaiting is how well Home Depot can capitalize&nbsp;on continued interest in home renovation and maintenance. Most of those following the stock expect Home Depot to see at least a 10% rise in earnings during its fiscal second quarter from year-ago levels, with sales picking up 7% year over year.</p><p><blockquote>然而，许多投资者焦急等待的是家得宝如何利用人们对房屋装修和维护的持续兴趣。大多数关注该股的人预计家得宝第二财季的盈利将比去年同期至少增长10%，销售额同比增长7%。</blockquote></p><p> If those growth rates seem a little tepid in comparison to Home Depot's past performance, it's important to put last year's numbers into context. Sales a year ago soared 23% compared to the corresponding quarter in calendar 2019, as those dealing with lockdown measures made massive investments in their homes in order to weather the pandemic. Profits were up nearly 25% year over year. Now, with those investments having borne fruit, some homeowners are continuing to make improvements, but many will be satisfied with their efforts to date.</p><p><blockquote>如果与家得宝过去的业绩相比，这些增长率似乎有点不温不火，那么将去年的数据放在背景中很重要。与2019年同期相比，一年前的销售额飙升了23%，因为那些应对封锁措施的人为了抵御疫情而对房屋进行了大量投资。利润同比增长近25%。现在，随着这些投资取得了成果，一些房主正在继续改善，但许多人会对他们迄今为止的努力感到满意。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Walmart makes its move</b></p><p><blockquote><b>沃尔玛出手</b></blockquote></p><p> Shares of Walmart finished Monday up slightly less than 1%. The retailer will announce its second-quarter financial results before the market opens on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔玛股价周一收盘上涨略低于1%。该零售商将在周二开盘前公布第二季度财务业绩。</blockquote></p><p> Investors have reasonable expectations from Walmart after a blockbuster performance a year ago. Earnings should be roughly flat from the second quarter of last year, and sales are likely to ease lower by around 1% year over year. Again, comparisons are somewhat tough, as earnings jumped almost 80% in the year-ago quarter compared to the same period in calendar 2019 before the pandemic took hold.</p><p><blockquote>在一年前的重磅业绩之后，投资者对沃尔玛抱有合理的期望。盈利应与去年第二季度大致持平，销售额可能同比下降1%左右。同样，比较有些困难，因为与疫情爆发前的2019年同期相比，去年同期的盈利增长了近80%。</blockquote></p><p> There are a lot of&nbsp;uncertainties about Walmart right now. A strong economy should bolster consumer spending, but that sometimes translates into weakness for Walmart if consumers decide to spend up on pricier items from competitors like&nbsp;<b>Target</b>. Conversely, some fear that the recent rise in COVID-19 cases could start to eat into economic growth, and that seems increasingly reflected in consumer sentiment metrics.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔玛目前存在很多不确定性。强劲的经济应该会提振消费者支出，但如果消费者决定从竞争对手那里购买更昂贵的商品，例如<b>目标</b>相反，一些人担心最近COVID-19病例的增加可能会开始侵蚀经济增长，这似乎越来越多地反映在消费者信心指标中。</blockquote></p><p> From a longer-term perspective, the big question facing Walmart is whether its investments in bolstering its online e-commerce channel will pay off permanently. During the worst days of the pandemic, Walmart customers flocked to online ordering in order to get necessities. When given a choice to shop in person or online, however, it remains to be seen what Walmart shoppers will do. The numbers will say a lot about whether all of Walmart's efforts have been in vain or will produce lasting advantages.</p><p><blockquote>从长远来看，沃尔玛面临的一个大问题是，其在加强在线电子商务渠道方面的投资是否会永久获得回报。在疫情最糟糕的日子里，沃尔玛的顾客蜂拥到网上订购，以获得必需品。然而，当可以选择亲自购物或网上购物时，沃尔玛购物者会怎么做还有待观察。这些数字将充分说明沃尔玛的所有努力是徒劳还是会产生持久的优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Keep your eyes open</b></p><p><blockquote><b>睁大眼睛</b></blockquote></p><p> No matter what Home Depot and Walmart announce tomorrow, they're likely to move the entire market. With so much volatility lately, surprising news from either of these companies could have a dramatic impact on Wall Street.</p><p><blockquote>无论家得宝和沃尔玛明天宣布什么，它们都可能改变整个市场。由于最近波动如此之大，来自这两家公司的令人惊讶的消息都可能对华尔街产生巨大影响。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/16/the-2-stocks-every-investor-should-be-watching/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"HD":"家得宝","WMT":"沃尔玛"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/16/the-2-stocks-every-investor-should-be-watching/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1165381771","content_text":"Key Points\n\nMonday was a mixed day for stocks, which rebounded from their lowest levels of the day.\nTwo key stocks could determine the direction of the entire market on Tuesday.\n\nWall Street rebounded from early losses on Monday morning, finishing the day on a mixed note. The Dow Jones Industrial Average(DJINDICES:^DJI)and S&P 500(SNPINDEX:^GSPC) managed to post modest gains, and even the Nasdaq Composite(NASDAQINDEX:^IXIC)dramatically reduced the size of its declines over the course of the day.\nDATA SOURCE: YAHOO! FINANCE.\nEarnings season is beginning to wind down, but there are still some high-profile stocks that have yet to report. Two of the most important stocks in the market right now will be giving their earnings results early Tuesday, and that's why investors should be watching Home Depot(NYSE:HD) and Walmart(NYSE:WMT)extremely closely as the retail stocks  prepare to release their latest financial reports.\nIMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.\nFeeling at home\nHome Depot was one of the stocks that saw big intraday moves on Monday. Initially falling as much as 1%, the home-improvement retailer ended up rebounding to post a better than 1% gain on the day.\nYet what many investors are anxiously awaiting is how well Home Depot can capitalize on continued interest in home renovation and maintenance. Most of those following the stock expect Home Depot to see at least a 10% rise in earnings during its fiscal second quarter from year-ago levels, with sales picking up 7% year over year.\nIf those growth rates seem a little tepid in comparison to Home Depot's past performance, it's important to put last year's numbers into context. Sales a year ago soared 23% compared to the corresponding quarter in calendar 2019, as those dealing with lockdown measures made massive investments in their homes in order to weather the pandemic. Profits were up nearly 25% year over year. Now, with those investments having borne fruit, some homeowners are continuing to make improvements, but many will be satisfied with their efforts to date.\nWalmart makes its move\nShares of Walmart finished Monday up slightly less than 1%. The retailer will announce its second-quarter financial results before the market opens on Tuesday.\nInvestors have reasonable expectations from Walmart after a blockbuster performance a year ago. Earnings should be roughly flat from the second quarter of last year, and sales are likely to ease lower by around 1% year over year. Again, comparisons are somewhat tough, as earnings jumped almost 80% in the year-ago quarter compared to the same period in calendar 2019 before the pandemic took hold.\nThere are a lot of uncertainties about Walmart right now. A strong economy should bolster consumer spending, but that sometimes translates into weakness for Walmart if consumers decide to spend up on pricier items from competitors like Target. Conversely, some fear that the recent rise in COVID-19 cases could start to eat into economic growth, and that seems increasingly reflected in consumer sentiment metrics.\nFrom a longer-term perspective, the big question facing Walmart is whether its investments in bolstering its online e-commerce channel will pay off permanently. During the worst days of the pandemic, Walmart customers flocked to online ordering in order to get necessities. When given a choice to shop in person or online, however, it remains to be seen what Walmart shoppers will do. The numbers will say a lot about whether all of Walmart's efforts have been in vain or will produce lasting advantages.\nKeep your eyes open\nNo matter what Home Depot and Walmart announce tomorrow, they're likely to move the entire market. With so much volatility lately, surprising news from either of these companies could have a dramatic impact on Wall Street.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"WMT":0.9,"HD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":297,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":893174783,"gmtCreate":1628251521042,"gmtModify":1631892030725,"author":{"id":"3579599009721057","authorId":"3579599009721057","name":"leddjy","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579599009721057","authorIdStr":"3579599009721057"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tech stocks","listText":"Tech stocks","text":"Tech stocks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/893174783","repostId":"2157464603","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":352,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":872316160,"gmtCreate":1637421509413,"gmtModify":1637421509580,"author":{"id":"3579599009721057","authorId":"3579599009721057","name":"leddjy","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579599009721057","idStr":"3579599009721057"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Happy weekend all!","listText":"Happy weekend all!","text":"Happy weekend all!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/872316160","repostId":"2184842262","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3555,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":840150778,"gmtCreate":1635609469024,"gmtModify":1635609469191,"author":{"id":"3579599009721057","authorId":"3579599009721057","name":"leddjy","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579599009721057","idStr":"3579599009721057"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Happy weekend all!","listText":"Happy weekend all!","text":"Happy weekend all!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/840150778","repostId":"1130019043","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130019043","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1635579123,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1130019043?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-30 15:32","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Top Wall Street Strategist Sees a Fast 10% Q4 Correction Coming<blockquote>华尔街顶级策略师预计第四季度将出现10%的快速调整</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130019043","media":"24/7 wall street","summary":"A plethora of acronyms are used in the financial world for a wide variety of items. Most investors a","content":"<p>A plethora of acronyms are used in the financial world for a wide variety of items. Most investors are well aware of the FAANG stocks, which are the massive tech monsters that rule the market. In addition, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the acronyms used to describe the constant rise in the stock markets, especially when the “buy the dip” crowd takes control after sizable selling, is FOMO, or fear of missing out.</p><p><blockquote>在金融界，大量的首字母缩略词用于各种各样的项目。大多数投资者都很清楚FAANG股票，它们是统治市场的大型科技巨头。此外，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>FOMO是用来描述股市持续上涨的首字母缩略词之一，尤其是当“逢低买入”人群在大量抛售后控制局面时。</blockquote></p><p> One of the very newest acronyms to hit the market speak lexicon is TINA. That stands for “there is no alternative,” which is an explanation for the constant ascent of the stock market. Basically what it means is that, due to very low yields on bonds and cash, especially with mounting inflation, owning stocks (especially those that pay solid and predictable dividends) is the only way to stay ahead of the game.</p><p><blockquote>TINA是市场词汇中最新出现的首字母缩略词之一。这代表“别无选择”，这是对股市不断上涨的解释。基本上，这意味着，由于债券和现金的收益率非常低，特别是在通货膨胀加剧的情况下，持有股票（尤其是那些支付稳定且可预测股息的股票）是保持领先地位的唯一途径。</blockquote></p><p> If any one equity strategist across Wall Street has been right on the money over the past few years, it is Stifel’s head of Institutional Equity Strategy, Barry Bannister, and he is advising clients that we could be poised to have a TINA trap sell-off. We have covered his outstanding and prescient calls for years, and generally when he talks, we listen. Those who did so at the height of the sell-off in 2020 posted some massive gains.</p><p><blockquote>如果说过去几年华尔街有哪一位股票策略师是正确的，那就是Stifel的机构股票策略主管巴里·班尼斯特(Barry Bannister)，他向客户建议，我们可能会遭遇TINA陷阱抛售。多年来，我们一直在报道他杰出而有先见之明的评级，通常当他说话时，我们会倾听。那些在2020年抛售最严重的时候这样做的人取得了一些巨大的收益。</blockquote></p><p> On March 19, 2020, just four short days before the final surge of selling and investor capitulation on March 23, Bannister and his team dropped a prediction for a relief rally that would carry the S&amp;P 500 to the 2,750 level by April 30. On March 23, the index hit an intraday low of 2,191, and it closed at 2,237.</p><p><blockquote>2020年3月19日，就在3月23日抛售和投资者投降最后激增的短短四天前，班尼斯特和他的团队放弃了对缓解性反弹的预测，该反弹将使标普500在4月30日之前升至2,750点。3月23日，该指数盘中最低触及2191点，收盘于2237点。</blockquote></p><p> We covered that incredibly bold prediction then, and while some were very skeptical of the call, Bannister made the prerequisite financial media rounds at the time giving his firm’s rationale for the prediction. In early April of 2020 as a surge of alarming news on the COVID-19 pandemic flooded the airwaves, Stifel came out and defended the call, telling clients to stand their ground. In the middle of April, as the rest of Wall Street was finally on board, Stifel raised the end-of-April target to 2,950. On April 30, in line with the laser-like call from Stifel, the S&amp;P 500 closed at 2,912 after hitting an intraday high of 2,930 and after trading to 2,950 level the day before. In late May of 2020, Stifel once again raised the price target on the S&amp;P 500 to 3,250 by August 30.</p><p><blockquote>我们当时报道了这一令人难以置信的大胆预测，虽然有些人对看涨期权非常怀疑，但班尼斯特当时在金融媒体上发表了先决条件，给出了他的公司做出这一预测的理由。2020年4月初，随着有关COVID-19大流行的令人震惊的消息充斥电视广播，Stifel站出来为看涨期权辩护，告诉客户坚持自己的立场。4月中旬，随着华尔街其他人终于加入进来，Stifel将4月底的目标上调至2,950点。4月30日，与Stifel激光般的看涨期权一致，标普500在触及2930点的盘中高点并在前一天交易至2950点后收于2912点。2020年5月下旬，Stifel再次将标普500的目标价上调至8月30日的3,250点。</blockquote></p><p> Once again, Bannister sees storm clouds on the horizon, and with good reason. Everything from stocks to gold, Treasury debt and oil and have been pushed higher. This is a result of a unique combination of the FOMO worries and the TINA mentality. In a new research report, Bannister and his team feel that a lightning-fast 10% correction could occur in the remaining months of the fourth quarter. The report noted this:</p><p><blockquote>班尼斯特又一次看到了地平线上的乌云，这是有充分理由的。从股票到黄金、国债和石油，一切都被推高。这是FOMO担忧和TINA心态独特结合的结果。在一份新的研究报告中，班尼斯特和他的团队认为，第四季度剩余几个月可能会出现闪电般的10%修正。报告指出：</blockquote></p><p>   Near-term in the fourth quarter of 2021, we note that equal-weighted cyclicals vs. defensives are very near the point at which P/E-driven S&amp;P 500 corrections occur, and we see downside equating to the S&amp;P 500 falling from 4,535 currently to ~4,000 (prior view 3,800), around a 10% correction in the fourth quarter as we see mid-cycle risks.    Our target and concerns are based on slowing global liquidity and tighter financial conditions with a gradual but unwavering Fed exit (especially after the Fed Chair is named). Sure, the Fed-inflated TINA trade “There is No Alternative” (to stocks) exists, but everyone goes into the boxing ring “with a plan” to buy-the-dip…until they get hit with a double-digit correction.    Looking out to mid-2022 through 2025, we observe that value vs. growth tracks the S&amp;P 500 divided by commodity index ratio, which soared in 2020 (favored growth stocks), fell in 2021 (favors value) and may bounce in mid-2022 (after the S&amp;P 500 corrects) favoring growth, post-dip. We also show that despite the Quantitative Easing taper the S&amp;P 500 could hit 5,200 by Jun-2022 (TINA’s last gasp?). Moreover, we see no actual bear market, which would be a 20% or more decline until fed funds is 1% (4 rate hikes), which fed funds futures indicate does not occur until 2024. </p><p><blockquote>近期在2021年第四季度，我们注意到等权重周期性股票与防御性股票非常接近市盈率驱动的标普500修正发生的点，我们认为下行相当于标普500从目前的4,535点下跌至约4,000点（之前的观点为3,800点），由于我们看到了中期周期风险，第四季度的修正约为10%。我们的目标和担忧基于全球流动性放缓和金融状况收紧，美联储将逐步但坚定不移地退出（尤其是在美联储主席任命之后）。当然，美联储膨胀的TINA交易“别无选择”（股票）是存在的，但每个人都“带着一个计划”进入拳击场，以逢低买入……直到他们受到两位数的修正。展望2022年中期至2025年，我们观察到价值与增长遵循标普500除以大宗商品指数比率，该比率在2020年飙升（青睐成长股），在2021年下跌（青睐价值股），并可能在2022年中期反弹（标普500修正后）有利于增长，下跌后。我们还表明，尽管量化宽松缩减，到2022年6月，标普500仍可能达到5,200（TINA的最后一口气？）.此外，我们没有看到真正的熊市，在联邦基金利率达到1%（加息4次）之前，熊市将下跌20%或更多，联邦基金期货表明这种情况要到2024年才会发生。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1620372341666","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Top Wall Street Strategist Sees a Fast 10% Q4 Correction Coming<blockquote>华尔街顶级策略师预计第四季度将出现10%的快速调整</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTop Wall Street Strategist Sees a Fast 10% Q4 Correction Coming<blockquote>华尔街顶级策略师预计第四季度将出现10%的快速调整</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">24/7 wall street</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-30 15:32</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>A plethora of acronyms are used in the financial world for a wide variety of items. Most investors are well aware of the FAANG stocks, which are the massive tech monsters that rule the market. In addition, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the acronyms used to describe the constant rise in the stock markets, especially when the “buy the dip” crowd takes control after sizable selling, is FOMO, or fear of missing out.</p><p><blockquote>在金融界，大量的首字母缩略词用于各种各样的项目。大多数投资者都很清楚FAANG股票，它们是统治市场的大型科技巨头。此外，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>FOMO是用来描述股市持续上涨的首字母缩略词之一，尤其是当“逢低买入”人群在大量抛售后控制局面时。</blockquote></p><p> One of the very newest acronyms to hit the market speak lexicon is TINA. That stands for “there is no alternative,” which is an explanation for the constant ascent of the stock market. Basically what it means is that, due to very low yields on bonds and cash, especially with mounting inflation, owning stocks (especially those that pay solid and predictable dividends) is the only way to stay ahead of the game.</p><p><blockquote>TINA是市场词汇中最新出现的首字母缩略词之一。这代表“别无选择”，这是对股市不断上涨的解释。基本上，这意味着，由于债券和现金的收益率非常低，特别是在通货膨胀加剧的情况下，持有股票（尤其是那些支付稳定且可预测股息的股票）是保持领先地位的唯一途径。</blockquote></p><p> If any one equity strategist across Wall Street has been right on the money over the past few years, it is Stifel’s head of Institutional Equity Strategy, Barry Bannister, and he is advising clients that we could be poised to have a TINA trap sell-off. We have covered his outstanding and prescient calls for years, and generally when he talks, we listen. Those who did so at the height of the sell-off in 2020 posted some massive gains.</p><p><blockquote>如果说过去几年华尔街有哪一位股票策略师是正确的，那就是Stifel的机构股票策略主管巴里·班尼斯特(Barry Bannister)，他向客户建议，我们可能会遭遇TINA陷阱抛售。多年来，我们一直在报道他杰出而有先见之明的评级，通常当他说话时，我们会倾听。那些在2020年抛售最严重的时候这样做的人取得了一些巨大的收益。</blockquote></p><p> On March 19, 2020, just four short days before the final surge of selling and investor capitulation on March 23, Bannister and his team dropped a prediction for a relief rally that would carry the S&amp;P 500 to the 2,750 level by April 30. On March 23, the index hit an intraday low of 2,191, and it closed at 2,237.</p><p><blockquote>2020年3月19日，就在3月23日抛售和投资者投降最后激增的短短四天前，班尼斯特和他的团队放弃了对缓解性反弹的预测，该反弹将使标普500在4月30日之前升至2,750点。3月23日，该指数盘中最低触及2191点，收盘于2237点。</blockquote></p><p> We covered that incredibly bold prediction then, and while some were very skeptical of the call, Bannister made the prerequisite financial media rounds at the time giving his firm’s rationale for the prediction. In early April of 2020 as a surge of alarming news on the COVID-19 pandemic flooded the airwaves, Stifel came out and defended the call, telling clients to stand their ground. In the middle of April, as the rest of Wall Street was finally on board, Stifel raised the end-of-April target to 2,950. On April 30, in line with the laser-like call from Stifel, the S&amp;P 500 closed at 2,912 after hitting an intraday high of 2,930 and after trading to 2,950 level the day before. In late May of 2020, Stifel once again raised the price target on the S&amp;P 500 to 3,250 by August 30.</p><p><blockquote>我们当时报道了这一令人难以置信的大胆预测，虽然有些人对看涨期权非常怀疑，但班尼斯特当时在金融媒体上发表了先决条件，给出了他的公司做出这一预测的理由。2020年4月初，随着有关COVID-19大流行的令人震惊的消息充斥电视广播，Stifel站出来为看涨期权辩护，告诉客户坚持自己的立场。4月中旬，随着华尔街其他人终于加入进来，Stifel将4月底的目标上调至2,950点。4月30日，与Stifel激光般的看涨期权一致，标普500在触及2930点的盘中高点并在前一天交易至2950点后收于2912点。2020年5月下旬，Stifel再次将标普500的目标价上调至8月30日的3,250点。</blockquote></p><p> Once again, Bannister sees storm clouds on the horizon, and with good reason. Everything from stocks to gold, Treasury debt and oil and have been pushed higher. This is a result of a unique combination of the FOMO worries and the TINA mentality. In a new research report, Bannister and his team feel that a lightning-fast 10% correction could occur in the remaining months of the fourth quarter. The report noted this:</p><p><blockquote>班尼斯特又一次看到了地平线上的乌云，这是有充分理由的。从股票到黄金、国债和石油，一切都被推高。这是FOMO担忧和TINA心态独特结合的结果。在一份新的研究报告中，班尼斯特和他的团队认为，第四季度剩余几个月可能会出现闪电般的10%修正。报告指出：</blockquote></p><p>   Near-term in the fourth quarter of 2021, we note that equal-weighted cyclicals vs. defensives are very near the point at which P/E-driven S&amp;P 500 corrections occur, and we see downside equating to the S&amp;P 500 falling from 4,535 currently to ~4,000 (prior view 3,800), around a 10% correction in the fourth quarter as we see mid-cycle risks.    Our target and concerns are based on slowing global liquidity and tighter financial conditions with a gradual but unwavering Fed exit (especially after the Fed Chair is named). Sure, the Fed-inflated TINA trade “There is No Alternative” (to stocks) exists, but everyone goes into the boxing ring “with a plan” to buy-the-dip…until they get hit with a double-digit correction.    Looking out to mid-2022 through 2025, we observe that value vs. growth tracks the S&amp;P 500 divided by commodity index ratio, which soared in 2020 (favored growth stocks), fell in 2021 (favors value) and may bounce in mid-2022 (after the S&amp;P 500 corrects) favoring growth, post-dip. We also show that despite the Quantitative Easing taper the S&amp;P 500 could hit 5,200 by Jun-2022 (TINA’s last gasp?). Moreover, we see no actual bear market, which would be a 20% or more decline until fed funds is 1% (4 rate hikes), which fed funds futures indicate does not occur until 2024. </p><p><blockquote>近期在2021年第四季度，我们注意到等权重周期性股票与防御性股票非常接近市盈率驱动的标普500修正发生的点，我们认为下行相当于标普500从目前的4,535点下跌至约4,000点（之前的观点为3,800点），由于我们看到了中期周期风险，第四季度的修正约为10%。我们的目标和担忧基于全球流动性放缓和金融状况收紧，美联储将逐步但坚定不移地退出（尤其是在美联储主席任命之后）。当然，美联储膨胀的TINA交易“别无选择”（股票）是存在的，但每个人都“带着一个计划”进入拳击场，以逢低买入……直到他们受到两位数的修正。展望2022年中期至2025年，我们观察到价值与增长遵循标普500除以大宗商品指数比率，该比率在2020年飙升（青睐成长股），在2021年下跌（青睐价值股），并可能在2022年中期反弹（标普500修正后）有利于增长，下跌后。我们还表明，尽管量化宽松缩减，到2022年6月，标普500仍可能达到5,200（TINA的最后一口气？）.此外，我们没有看到真正的熊市，在联邦基金利率达到1%（加息4次）之前，熊市将下跌20%或更多，联邦基金期货表明这种情况要到2024年才会发生。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://247wallst.com/investing/2021/10/29/top-wall-street-strategist-sees-a-fast-10-q4-correction-coming/\">24/7 wall street</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://247wallst.com/investing/2021/10/29/top-wall-street-strategist-sees-a-fast-10-q4-correction-coming/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130019043","content_text":"A plethora of acronyms are used in the financial world for a wide variety of items. Most investors are well aware of the FAANG stocks, which are the massive tech monsters that rule the market. In addition, one of the acronyms used to describe the constant rise in the stock markets, especially when the “buy the dip” crowd takes control after sizable selling, is FOMO, or fear of missing out.\nOne of the very newest acronyms to hit the market speak lexicon is TINA. That stands for “there is no alternative,” which is an explanation for the constant ascent of the stock market. Basically what it means is that, due to very low yields on bonds and cash, especially with mounting inflation, owning stocks (especially those that pay solid and predictable dividends) is the only way to stay ahead of the game.\nIf any one equity strategist across Wall Street has been right on the money over the past few years, it is Stifel’s head of Institutional Equity Strategy, Barry Bannister, and he is advising clients that we could be poised to have a TINA trap sell-off. We have covered his outstanding and prescient calls for years, and generally when he talks, we listen. Those who did so at the height of the sell-off in 2020 posted some massive gains.\nOn March 19, 2020, just four short days before the final surge of selling and investor capitulation on March 23, Bannister and his team dropped a prediction for a relief rally that would carry the S&P 500 to the 2,750 level by April 30. On March 23, the index hit an intraday low of 2,191, and it closed at 2,237.\nWe covered that incredibly bold prediction then, and while some were very skeptical of the call, Bannister made the prerequisite financial media rounds at the time giving his firm’s rationale for the prediction. In early April of 2020 as a surge of alarming news on the COVID-19 pandemic flooded the airwaves, Stifel came out and defended the call, telling clients to stand their ground. In the middle of April, as the rest of Wall Street was finally on board, Stifel raised the end-of-April target to 2,950. On April 30, in line with the laser-like call from Stifel, the S&P 500 closed at 2,912 after hitting an intraday high of 2,930 and after trading to 2,950 level the day before. In late May of 2020, Stifel once again raised the price target on the S&P 500 to 3,250 by August 30.\nOnce again, Bannister sees storm clouds on the horizon, and with good reason. Everything from stocks to gold, Treasury debt and oil and have been pushed higher. This is a result of a unique combination of the FOMO worries and the TINA mentality. In a new research report, Bannister and his team feel that a lightning-fast 10% correction could occur in the remaining months of the fourth quarter. The report noted this:\n\n Near-term in the fourth quarter of 2021, we note that equal-weighted cyclicals vs. defensives are very near the point at which P/E-driven S&P 500 corrections occur, and we see downside equating to the S&P 500 falling from 4,535 currently to ~4,000 (prior view 3,800), around a 10% correction in the fourth quarter as we see mid-cycle risks.\n\n\n Our target and concerns are based on slowing global liquidity and tighter financial conditions with a gradual but unwavering Fed exit (especially after the Fed Chair is named). Sure, the Fed-inflated TINA trade “There is No Alternative” (to stocks) exists, but everyone goes into the boxing ring “with a plan” to buy-the-dip…until they get hit with a double-digit correction.\n\n\n Looking out to mid-2022 through 2025, we observe that value vs. growth tracks the S&P 500 divided by commodity index ratio, which soared in 2020 (favored growth stocks), fell in 2021 (favors value) and may bounce in mid-2022 (after the S&P 500 corrects) favoring growth, post-dip. We also show that despite the Quantitative Easing taper the S&P 500 could hit 5,200 by Jun-2022 (TINA’s last gasp?). Moreover, we see no actual bear market, which would be a 20% or more decline until fed funds is 1% (4 rate hikes), which fed funds futures indicate does not occur until 2024.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2263,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":821112144,"gmtCreate":1633705058218,"gmtModify":1633705063879,"author":{"id":"3579599009721057","authorId":"3579599009721057","name":"leddjy","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579599009721057","idStr":"3579599009721057"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Happy weekend!","listText":"Happy weekend!","text":"Happy weekend!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821112144","repostId":"1133780035","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133780035","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633704297,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1133780035?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-08 22:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"6 reasons this is a fresh multiyear bull market and 6 stocks in the surprising sector you should favor<blockquote>这是一个新的多年牛市的6个原因以及您应该青睐的令人惊讶的行业中的6只股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133780035","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Stock-market pessimism and excess consumer buying power point to retail stocks.\n\nNothing like a litt","content":"<p>  <b>Stock-market pessimism and excess consumer buying power point to retail stocks.</b>  Nothing like a little October turbulence to help the market’s weak hands get in touch with their inner bears.</p><p><blockquote><b>股市悲观情绪和消费者过度购买给零售股带来了动力。</b>没有什么比十月的一点动荡更能帮助市场的弱者与内心的空头取得联系了。</blockquote></p><p> But don’t let their negativity rub off on you. We’re still near the beginning of what will be a multiyear bull market. Here are six reasons to buy stocks now, and six names to consider in one of the best sectors to own at the moment.</p><p><blockquote>但是不要让他们的消极影响到你。我们仍接近多年牛市的开始。以下是现在购买股票的六个理由，以及目前最值得考虑的行业之一的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Sentiment has gotten bearish enough</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.情绪已经变得足够悲观</b></blockquote></p><p> I regularly track investor sentiment in my stock letter (details and link in bio below) to make contrarian “calls” on the market. While most of your money should be in long-term holdings, timing entries when most people are bearish gives you an edge. That is the case now. Sentiment is not extremely negative, but it fell enough this week to trigger a buy signal in my system.</p><p><blockquote>我定期在我的股票信中跟踪投资者情绪（详细信息和链接见下面的简历），以在市场上进行逆向“评级”。虽然你的大部分资金应该长期持有，但在大多数人看跌的时候入场会给你带来优势。现在就是这样。情绪并不是极其负面，但本周下跌足以在我的系统中触发买入信号。</blockquote></p><p> It’s also worth pointing out that major media figures turned pretty negative this week, another good contrarian signal. (I won’t name names.) And the fact that their negativity is a bullish signal in my book doesn’t mean I think they are dense. It’s just that high-profile media commentators are consensus sponges. It’s an occupational hazard – which we can use to our advantage as investors.</p><p><blockquote>还值得指出的是，主要媒体数据本周变得相当负面，这是另一个良好的逆向信号。（我就不指名道姓了。）而他们的消极在我的书里是看涨信号的事实，并不意味着我认为他们是密集的。只是高调的媒体评论员是共识海绵。这是一种职业危害——作为投资者，我们可以利用这一点。</blockquote></p><p> Pick your favorite popular financial media talking heads, then do the opposite whenever they turn consistently negative — or positive.</p><p><blockquote>挑选你最喜欢的流行财经媒体发言人，然后在他们持续消极或积极时反其道而行之。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Seasonality is in our favor</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.季节性对我们有利</b></blockquote></p><p> The worst month for stocks is October, and the weakest days are Oct. 10 and Oct. 11. Then this bleak month is followed by the seasonally strong January-May phase when the market is bolstered by new money coming in. In between, November and December can be strong as stocks rebound from October weakness and the end of the mutual-fund tax-loss selling season. That’s finished at the end of October.</p><p><blockquote>股市最糟糕的月份是10月，最疲软的日子是10月10日和10月11日。然后，这个惨淡的月份之后是季节性强劲的1月至5月阶段，此时市场受到新资金流入的支撑。在此期间，随着股市从10月份的疲软中反弹以及共同基金税收损失销售季节的结束，11月和12月可能会表现强劲。那是十月底完成的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. COVID is rolling over</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.新冠疫情正在蔓延</b></blockquote></p><p> It’s no secret that case counts and hospitalizations are down sharply. Last year, the cold weather did not usher in a winter COVID flu season. So, it’s not too crazy to expect the same thing this year, especially given all the people who have been vaccinated or infected. Reopening will help boost the economy.</p><p><blockquote>众所周知，病例数和住院人数急剧下降。去年，寒冷的天气并没有迎来冬季COVID流感季节。所以，今年期待同样的事情并不太疯狂，尤其是考虑到所有已经接种疫苗或被感染的人。重新开放将有助于提振经济。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. A correction may have already happened</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.修正可能已经发生</b></blockquote></p><p> Since the summer, the market has experienced rolling corrections in various sectors. The Russell 2000RUT,+0.14%was down over 10% in August, the definition of a correction. Cyclicals, retail, tech and so forth have all been hit. As of early October, 90% or more of S&amp;P 500SPX,-0.05%and NasdaqCOMP,-0.28%stocks had fallen at least 10% from 2021 highs, notes Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles SchwabSCHW,+1.47%.</p><p><blockquote>入夏以来，市场经历了各板块的滚动回调。罗素2000RUT,+0.14%8月份下跌超过10%，这是回调的定义。周期性、零售、科技等都受到了打击。嘉信理财首席投资策略师Liz Ann Sonders指出，截至10月初，90%或更多的标准普尔500SPX(-0.05%)和纳斯达克综合指数(-0.28%)股票已较2021年高点下跌至少10%，+1.47%。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, while everyone was looking for a correction, it may have already happened. The market has a funny way of tricking most people most of the time, this way.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，当所有人都在寻找修正时，它可能已经发生了。大多数时候，市场有一种有趣的方式来欺骗大多数人，就是这种方式。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. There’s been strong household formation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5.家庭结构强劲</b></blockquote></p><p> Millennials are finally giving up on the parents’ basement – if there was ever any truth to that cliché.</p><p><blockquote>千禧一代终于放弃了父母的地下室——如果这种陈词滥调有任何真实性的话。</blockquote></p><p> What is true: They’re entering the prime age for marriage and family. Plus, the economy is booming so they feel confident enough to make the plunge into homeownership.</p><p><blockquote>事实是：他们正在进入婚姻和家庭的黄金年龄。此外，经济正在蓬勃发展，所以他们有足够的信心投入到住房所有权。</blockquote></p><p> The upshot: Household formation is now at about two million per year, more than double the rate for the past five years. Home buyers have to purchase a lot of stuff to fill up those new houses. That’s a built-in economy booster.</p><p><blockquote>结果是：现在每年大约有200万个家庭组成，是过去五年的两倍多。购房者不得不购买很多东西来填满这些新房子。这是一个内置的经济助推器。</blockquote></p><p> <b>6. The consumer is scared, locked and loaded</b></p><p><blockquote><b>6.消费者害怕，锁定和装载</b></blockquote></p><p> There are at least a half-dozen natural sources of stimulus in the economy ready to drive growth whether the Fed tapers or not, points out Jim Paulsen, an economist and strategist at Leuthold Group. One is that household formation, mentioned above. Another is the low level of inventories at companies – which have to restock big time. But to me, the big one is the consumer, simply because consumer spending is the big driver of our economy.</p><p><blockquote>Leuthold Group经济学家兼策略师吉姆·保尔森(Jim Paulsen)指出，无论美联储是否缩减规模，经济中至少有六种自然刺激来源可以推动经济增长。一个是上面提到的家庭结构。另一个原因是公司库存水平较低——它们必须大量补货。但对我来说，最大的因素是消费者，因为消费者支出是我们经济的主要驱动力。</blockquote></p><p> The bottom line: Consumer are scared. But they have a ton of buying power to tap when their anxieties ease — perhaps as COVID continues to roll over.</p><p><blockquote>底线是：消费者感到害怕。但当他们的焦虑缓解时，他们有大量的购买力可以利用——也许是随着新冠疫情的继续蔓延。</blockquote></p><p> Now a little more detail.August consumer sentimentwas at the lowest level since the pandemic began, as measured by the University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment. Itnudged up in September, but it is still low.</p><p><blockquote>现在更多细节。根据密歇根大学消费者信心指数衡量，8月份消费者信心处于大流行开始以来的最低水平。9月份有所上升，但仍处于低位。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, consumers have a tremendous amount of buying power. Personal savings are at about 12% of GDP. That’s twice the longer-term average of around 6%-7%, notes Paulsen. Net worth compared to income is at record highs.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，消费者拥有巨大的购买力。个人储蓄约占GDP的12%。保尔森指出，这是6%-7%左右的长期平均水平的两倍。净资产与收入相比创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> Don’t make the mistake of thinking that’s just the rich getting richer because of the stock market. Homes are up a lot too, and most people own homes. The ratio of household debt to personal income is the lowest since 1985.</p><p><blockquote>不要错误地认为这只是富人因为股市而变得更富。房价也涨了很多，大多数人都有自己的房子。家庭债务与个人收入之比为1985年以来最低。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “Consumers are scared and loaded with untapped buying power,” says Paulsen. “This pessimistic mindset combined with the excess buying power has historically produced solid market gains with infrequent declines,” he says. “This ratio portrays a bull market that is still in its infancy.”</p><p><blockquote>“消费者感到害怕，并且充满了未开发的购买力，”保尔森说。他表示：“这种悲观心态加上购买力过剩，从历史上看，市场出现了稳健的上涨，但很少出现下跌。”“这个比率描绘了一个仍处于起步阶段的牛市。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>S</b><b><b>tocks</b></b><b>&nbsp;to buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>S</b><b><b>托克斯</b></b><b>购买</b></blockquote></p><p> Since the consumer is such a big part of this dynamic, I say go with retail stocks. They’ve been underperforming, which also makes them look attractive.</p><p><blockquote>由于消费者是这种动态的重要组成部分，我建议选择零售股。他们表现不佳，这也让他们看起来很有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> Morningstar cites Bath &amp; Body WorksBBWI,-0.74%as a retailer with a moat and trading at a discount. The body care and home fragrance retailer has a four-star rating because its stock is trading so far below Morningstar’s “fair value” estimate of $79 for the name.</p><p><blockquote>晨星公司将Bath&amp;Body WorksBBWI,-0.74%视为一家拥有护城河且交易折扣的零售商。这家身体护理和家用香水零售商获得四星级评级，因为其股票交易价格远低于晨星公司对该名称79美元的“公允价值”估计。</blockquote></p><p> As for the moat, analyst Jaime Katz cites the company’s strong brand, its leadership position in its space, and the 30% average return on invested capital, well above its 8% weighted average cost of capital.</p><p><blockquote>至于护城河，分析师Jaime Katz列举了该公司强大的品牌、在该领域的领导地位以及30%的平均投资资本回报率，远高于其8%的加权平均资本成本。</blockquote></p><p> Eric Marshall, a portfolio manager at the Hodges Small Cap fundHDPSX,+1.83%,likes the apparel retailer American Eagle OutfittersAEO,0.36%,which is down over 35% from highs this year. The company posted record revenue of $1.19 billion in the second quarter, up 35% year over year.</p><p><blockquote>Hodges Small Cap fundHDPSX(+1.83%)的投资组合经理埃里克·马歇尔(Eric Marshall)看好服装零售商American Eagle OutfittersAEO(0.36%)，该股较今年高点下跌了35%以上。该公司第二季度营收达到创纪录的11.9亿美元，同比增长35%。</blockquote></p><p> The core growth driver is its popular Aerie brand. Marshall thinks the company will earn over $2 a share this year, which makes American Eagle stock a bargain at around 13 times forward earnings.</p><p><blockquote>核心增长动力是其广受欢迎的Aerie品牌。马歇尔认为该公司今年每股收益将超过2美元，这使得American Eagle股票的预期市盈率约为13倍，非常便宜。</blockquote></p><p> Marshall is worth listening to because he has a hot hand. His Hodges small-cap fund is up 31% this year, beating its small blend category and Russell 2000 index benchmark by 12 to 18 percentage points, according to Morningstar.</p><p><blockquote>马歇尔值得一听，因为他有一双热情的手。据晨星公司称，他的Hodges小型股基金今年上涨了31%，比小型混合基金和罗素2000指数基准高出12至18个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> Marshall also likes Academy Sports and OutdoorsASO,-0.91%,which sells sports and outdoor recreation&nbsp;goods. The pandemic was a windfall for this company because of the popularity of outdoor activities. Strong pandemic sales helped the company chip away at its high debt levels. Analysts are worried the pandemic-inspired popularity of outdoor activities will wane, but Marshall thinks the outdoor lifestyle will stay in vogue.</p><p><blockquote>马歇尔还喜欢Academy Sports and OutdoorsASO,-0.91%，该公司销售运动和户外休闲用品。由于户外活动的流行，疫情对这家公司来说是一笔意外之财。强劲的大流行销售帮助该公司降低了高债务水平。分析师担心大流行引发的户外活动的受欢迎程度将会减弱，但马歇尔认为户外生活方式将继续流行。</blockquote></p><p> While many retail sector investors are awed by the power of Amazon.comAMZN,0.03%and WalmartWMT,0.03%,Motley Fool retail sector analyst Asit Sharma favors niche chains that have mastered the “direct to consumer” sales model. They offer great stores and solid products, but also the mix of delivery options that shoppers want – including in-store pickup of items bought online.</p><p><blockquote>虽然许多零售行业投资者对亚马逊MAMZN(0.03%)和沃尔玛WMT(0.03%)的力量感到敬畏，但Motley Fool零售行业分析师Asit Sharma更青睐掌握“直接面向消费者”销售模式的利基连锁店。他们提供很棒的商店和可靠的产品，但也提供购物者想要的送货选择组合——包括在店内提货网上购买的商品。</blockquote></p><p> “The retail sector gets a perennial bad rap because everyone is focused on yesterday’s story, that Amazon and Walmart are taking out all physical stores,” says Sharma. But that’s not the case. Many retailers provide a mix of excellent in-store experiences and unique products that the two retail giants can’t really offer.</p><p><blockquote>夏尔马说：“零售业常年受到负面评价，因为每个人都在关注昨天的故事，即亚马逊和沃尔玛正在关闭所有实体店。”但事实并非如此。许多零售商提供出色的店内体验和独特的产品，这是这两家零售巨头无法真正提供的。</blockquote></p><p> Here, Sharma cites Lululemon AthleticaLULU,-0.88%.“We love the fact that the company spends on its own research and development innovation on the fabric side.” Stores give consumers a chance to check out the custom fabrics in person.</p><p><blockquote>在这里，Sharma引用了Lululemon AthleticaLULU，-0.88%。“我们喜欢该公司在面料方面投入自己的研发创新。”商店给消费者一个亲自检查定制面料的机会。</blockquote></p><p> Sharma also favors Yeti HoldingsYETI,-1.92%,which sells coolers, “drinkware” and outdoor equipment. For a larger cap name, consider the popular retail giant TargetTGT,-0.24%for its “everything under one roof” approach to retail.</p><p><blockquote>夏尔马还青睐Yeti HoldingsYETI，-1.92%，该公司销售冷却器、“饮品”和户外设备。对于较大的股票名称，请考虑受欢迎的零售巨头TargetTGT，-0.24%，因其“一切都在一个屋檐下”的零售方式。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>6 reasons this is a fresh multiyear bull market and 6 stocks in the surprising sector you should favor<blockquote>这是一个新的多年牛市的6个原因以及您应该青睐的令人惊讶的行业中的6只股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n6 reasons this is a fresh multiyear bull market and 6 stocks in the surprising sector you should favor<blockquote>这是一个新的多年牛市的6个原因以及您应该青睐的令人惊讶的行业中的6只股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-08 22:44</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>Stock-market pessimism and excess consumer buying power point to retail stocks.</b>  Nothing like a little October turbulence to help the market’s weak hands get in touch with their inner bears.</p><p><blockquote><b>股市悲观情绪和消费者过度购买给零售股带来了动力。</b>没有什么比十月的一点动荡更能帮助市场的弱者与内心的空头取得联系了。</blockquote></p><p> But don’t let their negativity rub off on you. We’re still near the beginning of what will be a multiyear bull market. Here are six reasons to buy stocks now, and six names to consider in one of the best sectors to own at the moment.</p><p><blockquote>但是不要让他们的消极影响到你。我们仍接近多年牛市的开始。以下是现在购买股票的六个理由，以及目前最值得考虑的行业之一的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Sentiment has gotten bearish enough</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.情绪已经变得足够悲观</b></blockquote></p><p> I regularly track investor sentiment in my stock letter (details and link in bio below) to make contrarian “calls” on the market. While most of your money should be in long-term holdings, timing entries when most people are bearish gives you an edge. That is the case now. Sentiment is not extremely negative, but it fell enough this week to trigger a buy signal in my system.</p><p><blockquote>我定期在我的股票信中跟踪投资者情绪（详细信息和链接见下面的简历），以在市场上进行逆向“评级”。虽然你的大部分资金应该长期持有，但在大多数人看跌的时候入场会给你带来优势。现在就是这样。情绪并不是极其负面，但本周下跌足以在我的系统中触发买入信号。</blockquote></p><p> It’s also worth pointing out that major media figures turned pretty negative this week, another good contrarian signal. (I won’t name names.) And the fact that their negativity is a bullish signal in my book doesn’t mean I think they are dense. It’s just that high-profile media commentators are consensus sponges. It’s an occupational hazard – which we can use to our advantage as investors.</p><p><blockquote>还值得指出的是，主要媒体数据本周变得相当负面，这是另一个良好的逆向信号。（我就不指名道姓了。）而他们的消极在我的书里是看涨信号的事实，并不意味着我认为他们是密集的。只是高调的媒体评论员是共识海绵。这是一种职业危害——作为投资者，我们可以利用这一点。</blockquote></p><p> Pick your favorite popular financial media talking heads, then do the opposite whenever they turn consistently negative — or positive.</p><p><blockquote>挑选你最喜欢的流行财经媒体发言人，然后在他们持续消极或积极时反其道而行之。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Seasonality is in our favor</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.季节性对我们有利</b></blockquote></p><p> The worst month for stocks is October, and the weakest days are Oct. 10 and Oct. 11. Then this bleak month is followed by the seasonally strong January-May phase when the market is bolstered by new money coming in. In between, November and December can be strong as stocks rebound from October weakness and the end of the mutual-fund tax-loss selling season. That’s finished at the end of October.</p><p><blockquote>股市最糟糕的月份是10月，最疲软的日子是10月10日和10月11日。然后，这个惨淡的月份之后是季节性强劲的1月至5月阶段，此时市场受到新资金流入的支撑。在此期间，随着股市从10月份的疲软中反弹以及共同基金税收损失销售季节的结束，11月和12月可能会表现强劲。那是十月底完成的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. COVID is rolling over</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.新冠疫情正在蔓延</b></blockquote></p><p> It’s no secret that case counts and hospitalizations are down sharply. Last year, the cold weather did not usher in a winter COVID flu season. So, it’s not too crazy to expect the same thing this year, especially given all the people who have been vaccinated or infected. Reopening will help boost the economy.</p><p><blockquote>众所周知，病例数和住院人数急剧下降。去年，寒冷的天气并没有迎来冬季COVID流感季节。所以，今年期待同样的事情并不太疯狂，尤其是考虑到所有已经接种疫苗或被感染的人。重新开放将有助于提振经济。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. A correction may have already happened</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.修正可能已经发生</b></blockquote></p><p> Since the summer, the market has experienced rolling corrections in various sectors. The Russell 2000RUT,+0.14%was down over 10% in August, the definition of a correction. Cyclicals, retail, tech and so forth have all been hit. As of early October, 90% or more of S&amp;P 500SPX,-0.05%and NasdaqCOMP,-0.28%stocks had fallen at least 10% from 2021 highs, notes Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles SchwabSCHW,+1.47%.</p><p><blockquote>入夏以来，市场经历了各板块的滚动回调。罗素2000RUT,+0.14%8月份下跌超过10%，这是回调的定义。周期性、零售、科技等都受到了打击。嘉信理财首席投资策略师Liz Ann Sonders指出，截至10月初，90%或更多的标准普尔500SPX(-0.05%)和纳斯达克综合指数(-0.28%)股票已较2021年高点下跌至少10%，+1.47%。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, while everyone was looking for a correction, it may have already happened. The market has a funny way of tricking most people most of the time, this way.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，当所有人都在寻找修正时，它可能已经发生了。大多数时候，市场有一种有趣的方式来欺骗大多数人，就是这种方式。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. There’s been strong household formation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5.家庭结构强劲</b></blockquote></p><p> Millennials are finally giving up on the parents’ basement – if there was ever any truth to that cliché.</p><p><blockquote>千禧一代终于放弃了父母的地下室——如果这种陈词滥调有任何真实性的话。</blockquote></p><p> What is true: They’re entering the prime age for marriage and family. Plus, the economy is booming so they feel confident enough to make the plunge into homeownership.</p><p><blockquote>事实是：他们正在进入婚姻和家庭的黄金年龄。此外，经济正在蓬勃发展，所以他们有足够的信心投入到住房所有权。</blockquote></p><p> The upshot: Household formation is now at about two million per year, more than double the rate for the past five years. Home buyers have to purchase a lot of stuff to fill up those new houses. That’s a built-in economy booster.</p><p><blockquote>结果是：现在每年大约有200万个家庭组成，是过去五年的两倍多。购房者不得不购买很多东西来填满这些新房子。这是一个内置的经济助推器。</blockquote></p><p> <b>6. The consumer is scared, locked and loaded</b></p><p><blockquote><b>6.消费者害怕，锁定和装载</b></blockquote></p><p> There are at least a half-dozen natural sources of stimulus in the economy ready to drive growth whether the Fed tapers or not, points out Jim Paulsen, an economist and strategist at Leuthold Group. One is that household formation, mentioned above. Another is the low level of inventories at companies – which have to restock big time. But to me, the big one is the consumer, simply because consumer spending is the big driver of our economy.</p><p><blockquote>Leuthold Group经济学家兼策略师吉姆·保尔森(Jim Paulsen)指出，无论美联储是否缩减规模，经济中至少有六种自然刺激来源可以推动经济增长。一个是上面提到的家庭结构。另一个原因是公司库存水平较低——它们必须大量补货。但对我来说，最大的因素是消费者，因为消费者支出是我们经济的主要驱动力。</blockquote></p><p> The bottom line: Consumer are scared. But they have a ton of buying power to tap when their anxieties ease — perhaps as COVID continues to roll over.</p><p><blockquote>底线是：消费者感到害怕。但当他们的焦虑缓解时，他们有大量的购买力可以利用——也许是随着新冠疫情的继续蔓延。</blockquote></p><p> Now a little more detail.August consumer sentimentwas at the lowest level since the pandemic began, as measured by the University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment. Itnudged up in September, but it is still low.</p><p><blockquote>现在更多细节。根据密歇根大学消费者信心指数衡量，8月份消费者信心处于大流行开始以来的最低水平。9月份有所上升，但仍处于低位。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, consumers have a tremendous amount of buying power. Personal savings are at about 12% of GDP. That’s twice the longer-term average of around 6%-7%, notes Paulsen. Net worth compared to income is at record highs.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，消费者拥有巨大的购买力。个人储蓄约占GDP的12%。保尔森指出，这是6%-7%左右的长期平均水平的两倍。净资产与收入相比创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> Don’t make the mistake of thinking that’s just the rich getting richer because of the stock market. Homes are up a lot too, and most people own homes. The ratio of household debt to personal income is the lowest since 1985.</p><p><blockquote>不要错误地认为这只是富人因为股市而变得更富。房价也涨了很多，大多数人都有自己的房子。家庭债务与个人收入之比为1985年以来最低。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “Consumers are scared and loaded with untapped buying power,” says Paulsen. “This pessimistic mindset combined with the excess buying power has historically produced solid market gains with infrequent declines,” he says. “This ratio portrays a bull market that is still in its infancy.”</p><p><blockquote>“消费者感到害怕，并且充满了未开发的购买力，”保尔森说。他表示：“这种悲观心态加上购买力过剩，从历史上看，市场出现了稳健的上涨，但很少出现下跌。”“这个比率描绘了一个仍处于起步阶段的牛市。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>S</b><b><b>tocks</b></b><b>&nbsp;to buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>S</b><b><b>托克斯</b></b><b>购买</b></blockquote></p><p> Since the consumer is such a big part of this dynamic, I say go with retail stocks. They’ve been underperforming, which also makes them look attractive.</p><p><blockquote>由于消费者是这种动态的重要组成部分，我建议选择零售股。他们表现不佳，这也让他们看起来很有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> Morningstar cites Bath &amp; Body WorksBBWI,-0.74%as a retailer with a moat and trading at a discount. The body care and home fragrance retailer has a four-star rating because its stock is trading so far below Morningstar’s “fair value” estimate of $79 for the name.</p><p><blockquote>晨星公司将Bath&amp;Body WorksBBWI,-0.74%视为一家拥有护城河且交易折扣的零售商。这家身体护理和家用香水零售商获得四星级评级，因为其股票交易价格远低于晨星公司对该名称79美元的“公允价值”估计。</blockquote></p><p> As for the moat, analyst Jaime Katz cites the company’s strong brand, its leadership position in its space, and the 30% average return on invested capital, well above its 8% weighted average cost of capital.</p><p><blockquote>至于护城河，分析师Jaime Katz列举了该公司强大的品牌、在该领域的领导地位以及30%的平均投资资本回报率，远高于其8%的加权平均资本成本。</blockquote></p><p> Eric Marshall, a portfolio manager at the Hodges Small Cap fundHDPSX,+1.83%,likes the apparel retailer American Eagle OutfittersAEO,0.36%,which is down over 35% from highs this year. The company posted record revenue of $1.19 billion in the second quarter, up 35% year over year.</p><p><blockquote>Hodges Small Cap fundHDPSX(+1.83%)的投资组合经理埃里克·马歇尔(Eric Marshall)看好服装零售商American Eagle OutfittersAEO(0.36%)，该股较今年高点下跌了35%以上。该公司第二季度营收达到创纪录的11.9亿美元，同比增长35%。</blockquote></p><p> The core growth driver is its popular Aerie brand. Marshall thinks the company will earn over $2 a share this year, which makes American Eagle stock a bargain at around 13 times forward earnings.</p><p><blockquote>核心增长动力是其广受欢迎的Aerie品牌。马歇尔认为该公司今年每股收益将超过2美元，这使得American Eagle股票的预期市盈率约为13倍，非常便宜。</blockquote></p><p> Marshall is worth listening to because he has a hot hand. His Hodges small-cap fund is up 31% this year, beating its small blend category and Russell 2000 index benchmark by 12 to 18 percentage points, according to Morningstar.</p><p><blockquote>马歇尔值得一听，因为他有一双热情的手。据晨星公司称，他的Hodges小型股基金今年上涨了31%，比小型混合基金和罗素2000指数基准高出12至18个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> Marshall also likes Academy Sports and OutdoorsASO,-0.91%,which sells sports and outdoor recreation&nbsp;goods. The pandemic was a windfall for this company because of the popularity of outdoor activities. Strong pandemic sales helped the company chip away at its high debt levels. Analysts are worried the pandemic-inspired popularity of outdoor activities will wane, but Marshall thinks the outdoor lifestyle will stay in vogue.</p><p><blockquote>马歇尔还喜欢Academy Sports and OutdoorsASO,-0.91%，该公司销售运动和户外休闲用品。由于户外活动的流行，疫情对这家公司来说是一笔意外之财。强劲的大流行销售帮助该公司降低了高债务水平。分析师担心大流行引发的户外活动的受欢迎程度将会减弱，但马歇尔认为户外生活方式将继续流行。</blockquote></p><p> While many retail sector investors are awed by the power of Amazon.comAMZN,0.03%and WalmartWMT,0.03%,Motley Fool retail sector analyst Asit Sharma favors niche chains that have mastered the “direct to consumer” sales model. They offer great stores and solid products, but also the mix of delivery options that shoppers want – including in-store pickup of items bought online.</p><p><blockquote>虽然许多零售行业投资者对亚马逊MAMZN(0.03%)和沃尔玛WMT(0.03%)的力量感到敬畏，但Motley Fool零售行业分析师Asit Sharma更青睐掌握“直接面向消费者”销售模式的利基连锁店。他们提供很棒的商店和可靠的产品，但也提供购物者想要的送货选择组合——包括在店内提货网上购买的商品。</blockquote></p><p> “The retail sector gets a perennial bad rap because everyone is focused on yesterday’s story, that Amazon and Walmart are taking out all physical stores,” says Sharma. But that’s not the case. Many retailers provide a mix of excellent in-store experiences and unique products that the two retail giants can’t really offer.</p><p><blockquote>夏尔马说：“零售业常年受到负面评价，因为每个人都在关注昨天的故事，即亚马逊和沃尔玛正在关闭所有实体店。”但事实并非如此。许多零售商提供出色的店内体验和独特的产品，这是这两家零售巨头无法真正提供的。</blockquote></p><p> Here, Sharma cites Lululemon AthleticaLULU,-0.88%.“We love the fact that the company spends on its own research and development innovation on the fabric side.” Stores give consumers a chance to check out the custom fabrics in person.</p><p><blockquote>在这里，Sharma引用了Lululemon AthleticaLULU，-0.88%。“我们喜欢该公司在面料方面投入自己的研发创新。”商店给消费者一个亲自检查定制面料的机会。</blockquote></p><p> Sharma also favors Yeti HoldingsYETI,-1.92%,which sells coolers, “drinkware” and outdoor equipment. For a larger cap name, consider the popular retail giant TargetTGT,-0.24%for its “everything under one roof” approach to retail.</p><p><blockquote>夏尔马还青睐Yeti HoldingsYETI，-1.92%，该公司销售冷却器、“饮品”和户外设备。对于较大的股票名称，请考虑受欢迎的零售巨头TargetTGT，-0.24%，因其“一切都在一个屋檐下”的零售方式。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/6-reasons-this-is-a-fresh-multiyear-bull-market-and-6-stocks-in-the-surprising-sector-you-should-favor-11633701844?siteid=yhoof2\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/6-reasons-this-is-a-fresh-multiyear-bull-market-and-6-stocks-in-the-surprising-sector-you-should-favor-11633701844?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133780035","content_text":"Stock-market pessimism and excess consumer buying power point to retail stocks.\n\nNothing like a little October turbulence to help the market’s weak hands get in touch with their inner bears.\nBut don’t let their negativity rub off on you. We’re still near the beginning of what will be a multiyear bull market. Here are six reasons to buy stocks now, and six names to consider in one of the best sectors to own at the moment.\n1. Sentiment has gotten bearish enough\nI regularly track investor sentiment in my stock letter (details and link in bio below) to make contrarian “calls” on the market. While most of your money should be in long-term holdings, timing entries when most people are bearish gives you an edge. That is the case now. Sentiment is not extremely negative, but it fell enough this week to trigger a buy signal in my system.\nIt’s also worth pointing out that major media figures turned pretty negative this week, another good contrarian signal. (I won’t name names.) And the fact that their negativity is a bullish signal in my book doesn’t mean I think they are dense. It’s just that high-profile media commentators are consensus sponges. It’s an occupational hazard – which we can use to our advantage as investors.\nPick your favorite popular financial media talking heads, then do the opposite whenever they turn consistently negative — or positive.\n2. Seasonality is in our favor\nThe worst month for stocks is October, and the weakest days are Oct. 10 and Oct. 11. Then this bleak month is followed by the seasonally strong January-May phase when the market is bolstered by new money coming in. In between, November and December can be strong as stocks rebound from October weakness and the end of the mutual-fund tax-loss selling season. That’s finished at the end of October.\n3. COVID is rolling over\nIt’s no secret that case counts and hospitalizations are down sharply. Last year, the cold weather did not usher in a winter COVID flu season. So, it’s not too crazy to expect the same thing this year, especially given all the people who have been vaccinated or infected. Reopening will help boost the economy.\n4. A correction may have already happened\nSince the summer, the market has experienced rolling corrections in various sectors. The Russell 2000RUT,+0.14%was down over 10% in August, the definition of a correction. Cyclicals, retail, tech and so forth have all been hit. As of early October, 90% or more of S&P 500SPX,-0.05%and NasdaqCOMP,-0.28%stocks had fallen at least 10% from 2021 highs, notes Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles SchwabSCHW,+1.47%.\nIn other words, while everyone was looking for a correction, it may have already happened. The market has a funny way of tricking most people most of the time, this way.\n5. There’s been strong household formation\nMillennials are finally giving up on the parents’ basement – if there was ever any truth to that cliché.\nWhat is true: They’re entering the prime age for marriage and family. Plus, the economy is booming so they feel confident enough to make the plunge into homeownership.\nThe upshot: Household formation is now at about two million per year, more than double the rate for the past five years. Home buyers have to purchase a lot of stuff to fill up those new houses. That’s a built-in economy booster.\n6. The consumer is scared, locked and loaded\nThere are at least a half-dozen natural sources of stimulus in the economy ready to drive growth whether the Fed tapers or not, points out Jim Paulsen, an economist and strategist at Leuthold Group. One is that household formation, mentioned above. Another is the low level of inventories at companies – which have to restock big time. But to me, the big one is the consumer, simply because consumer spending is the big driver of our economy.\nThe bottom line: Consumer are scared. But they have a ton of buying power to tap when their anxieties ease — perhaps as COVID continues to roll over.\nNow a little more detail.August consumer sentimentwas at the lowest level since the pandemic began, as measured by the University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment. Itnudged up in September, but it is still low.\nAt the same time, consumers have a tremendous amount of buying power. Personal savings are at about 12% of GDP. That’s twice the longer-term average of around 6%-7%, notes Paulsen. Net worth compared to income is at record highs.\nDon’t make the mistake of thinking that’s just the rich getting richer because of the stock market. Homes are up a lot too, and most people own homes. The ratio of household debt to personal income is the lowest since 1985.\n“Consumers are scared and loaded with untapped buying power,” says Paulsen. “This pessimistic mindset combined with the excess buying power has historically produced solid market gains with infrequent declines,” he says. “This ratio portrays a bull market that is still in its infancy.”\nStocks to buy\nSince the consumer is such a big part of this dynamic, I say go with retail stocks. They’ve been underperforming, which also makes them look attractive.\nMorningstar cites Bath & Body WorksBBWI,-0.74%as a retailer with a moat and trading at a discount. The body care and home fragrance retailer has a four-star rating because its stock is trading so far below Morningstar’s “fair value” estimate of $79 for the name.\nAs for the moat, analyst Jaime Katz cites the company’s strong brand, its leadership position in its space, and the 30% average return on invested capital, well above its 8% weighted average cost of capital.\nEric Marshall, a portfolio manager at the Hodges Small Cap fundHDPSX,+1.83%,likes the apparel retailer American Eagle OutfittersAEO,0.36%,which is down over 35% from highs this year. The company posted record revenue of $1.19 billion in the second quarter, up 35% year over year.\nThe core growth driver is its popular Aerie brand. Marshall thinks the company will earn over $2 a share this year, which makes American Eagle stock a bargain at around 13 times forward earnings.\nMarshall is worth listening to because he has a hot hand. His Hodges small-cap fund is up 31% this year, beating its small blend category and Russell 2000 index benchmark by 12 to 18 percentage points, according to Morningstar.\nMarshall also likes Academy Sports and OutdoorsASO,-0.91%,which sells sports and outdoor recreation goods. The pandemic was a windfall for this company because of the popularity of outdoor activities. Strong pandemic sales helped the company chip away at its high debt levels. Analysts are worried the pandemic-inspired popularity of outdoor activities will wane, but Marshall thinks the outdoor lifestyle will stay in vogue.\nWhile many retail sector investors are awed by the power of Amazon.comAMZN,0.03%and WalmartWMT,0.03%,Motley Fool retail sector analyst Asit Sharma favors niche chains that have mastered the “direct to consumer” sales model. They offer great stores and solid products, but also the mix of delivery options that shoppers want – including in-store pickup of items bought online.\n“The retail sector gets a perennial bad rap because everyone is focused on yesterday’s story, that Amazon and Walmart are taking out all physical stores,” says Sharma. But that’s not the case. Many retailers provide a mix of excellent in-store experiences and unique products that the two retail giants can’t really offer.\nHere, Sharma cites Lululemon AthleticaLULU,-0.88%.“We love the fact that the company spends on its own research and development innovation on the fabric side.” Stores give consumers a chance to check out the custom fabrics in person.\nSharma also favors Yeti HoldingsYETI,-1.92%,which sells coolers, “drinkware” and outdoor equipment. For a larger cap name, consider the popular retail giant TargetTGT,-0.24%for its “everything under one roof” approach to retail.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":543,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":146322810,"gmtCreate":1626054966230,"gmtModify":1633930600703,"author":{"id":"3579599009721057","authorId":"3579599009721057","name":"leddjy","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579599009721057","idStr":"3579599009721057"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yeay","listText":"Yeay","text":"Yeay","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146322810","repostId":"1114863871","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":215,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":873327059,"gmtCreate":1636862686672,"gmtModify":1636862686859,"author":{"id":"3579599009721057","authorId":"3579599009721057","name":"leddjy","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579599009721057","idStr":"3579599009721057"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Happy weekend all!","listText":"Happy weekend all!","text":"Happy weekend all!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873327059","repostId":"1103944030","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2114,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":827699339,"gmtCreate":1634453954136,"gmtModify":1634453954524,"author":{"id":"3579599009721057","authorId":"3579599009721057","name":"leddjy","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579599009721057","idStr":"3579599009721057"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Have a good Sunday!","listText":"Have a good Sunday!","text":"Have a good Sunday!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/827699339","repostId":"2175146556","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2348,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":862721874,"gmtCreate":1632916733134,"gmtModify":1632916782180,"author":{"id":"3579599009721057","authorId":"3579599009721057","name":"leddjy","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579599009721057","idStr":"3579599009721057"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Correction","listText":"Correction","text":"Correction","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862721874","repostId":"1198528044","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198528044","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632882697,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198528044?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-29 10:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Technically Speaking: Is The Market \"Melting-Up?\"<blockquote>从技术上讲：市场正在“融化”吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198528044","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nGiven the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protect","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.</li>  <li>As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.</li>  <li>While it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent “this time is different”.</li> </ul> Is the<i>“market melting-up?”</i>Such was the question I received from my colleague at<i>Cut The Crap Investing.</i>It is an excellent question given the relentless increase in what investors believe is a<i>“no risk”</i>market.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>鉴于美联储正在进行的资产负债表操作，投资者完全相信他们有能力免受经济衰退的影响。</li><li>与往常一样，投资大众相信未来的收益将证明在融化期间价格上涨是合理的。从来都不是那样的。</li><li>虽然在融化持续期间利用它是至关重要的，但不要过于自满“这次不同了”。</li></ul>是<i>“市场融化？”</i>这是我从我的同事那里收到的问题<i>少废话投资。</i>考虑到投资者认为的持续增长，这是一个很好的问题<i>“没有风险”</i>市场。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, we need a definition of precisely what constitutes a melt-up.</p><p><blockquote>当然，我们需要一个准确定义什么是融化。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“A melt-up is a sustained and often unexpected improvement in the investment performance of an asset or asset class, driven partly</i>  <i><b>by a stampede of investors who don’t want to miss out on its rise,</b></i>  <i>rather than by fundamental improvements in the economy.“</i>–  <i>Investopedia</i>  Currently, there is sufficient evidence to support the idea of an exuberant market.<b><i>As noted previously:</i></b></p><p><blockquote><i>他说：“熔断是指一项资产或资产类别的投资表现持续且往往出乎意料的改善，部分原因是</i><i><b>不想错过其上涨机会的投资者蜂拥而至，</b></i><i>而不是经济的根本改善。”</i>–<i>投资百科</i>目前，有足够的证据支持市场繁荣的观点。<b><i>如前所述：</i></b></blockquote></p><p>   <i>“Near peaks of market cycles, investors become swept up by the underlying exuberance. That exuberance breeds the “rationalization” that “this time is different.” So how do you know the market is exuberant currently? Via Sentiment Trader:”</i>    <i>‘This type of market activity is an indication that markets have returned their ‘enthusiasm’ stage. Such is characterized by:’</i>  <ul>  <li><b><i>High optimism</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Easy credit (too easy, with loose terms)</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>A rush of initial and secondary offerings</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Risky stocks outperforming</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Stretched valuations</i></b></li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff8de3a84084162ca86b415584bbf793\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><i>“在市场周期接近峰值时，投资者会被潜在的繁荣所席卷。这种繁荣滋生了“合理化”，即“这次不同了”。那么，你如何知道市场目前是繁荣的呢？通过情绪交易者：”</i><i>这种类型的市场活动表明市场已经回到了“热情”阶段。其特征在于：</i><ul><li><b><i>高度乐观</i></b></li><li><b><i>宽松信贷（太宽松，条款宽松）</i></b></li><li><b><i>首次和二次发行热潮</i></b></li><li><b><i>风险股跑赢大盘</i></b></li><li><b><i>估值过高</i></b></li></ul></blockquote></p><p> However, while one would expect individuals to exhibit caution in such an environment, the opposite is true. Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.</p><p><blockquote>然而，虽然人们会期望个人在这样的环境中表现出谨慎，但事实恰恰相反。鉴于美联储正在进行的资产负债表操作，投资者完全相信他们有能力免受经济衰退的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Visualization Of A Market Melting-Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场融化的可视化</b></blockquote></p><p> It is often easier to visualize something rather than explain it.<b>Since 1900, only two previous market periods qualify as a melt-up: 1920-1929 and 1995-2000.</b>The chart below shows both periods in terms of price.</p><p><blockquote>想象某事通常比解释它更容易。<b>自1900年以来，只有两个市场时期符合熔化的条件：1920-1929年和1995-2000年。</b>下图显示了这两个时期的价格。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a218c7efe2ebd874d05c9ff7dd564436\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f193c9c32d55747bf7ff511c2f9fd53\" tg-width=\"793\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> However, the melt-up is also visually represented by the incredibly sharp rise in valuations. Such is essential because earnings are not rising at a fast enough clip to support higher prices.<b>As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，估值的大幅上涨也直观地体现了这种融化。这一点至关重要，因为盈利增长速度不足以支撑价格上涨。<b>与往常一样，投资大众相信未来的收益将证明在融化期间价格上涨是合理的。从来都不是那样的。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c69e418d5a19d6fd03b305ab111e3be3\" tg-width=\"794\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af03d3bbd071b8edfdf3a19e2c7b0bcd\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We can compare those two previous periods with the current advance from the March 2020 lows. Again, we see a very similar sharp advance in price combined with a surge in valuations. As expected, investors are currently hoping that future earnings will rise sharply enough to justify current prices. However, the justification for paying high prices is the Federal Reserve’s ongoing balance sheet expansion.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以将前两个时期与当前从2020年3月低点的上涨进行比较。我们再次看到非常相似的价格大幅上涨和估值飙升。正如预期的那样，投资者目前希望未来收益将大幅上涨，足以证明当前价格的合理性。然而，支付高价的理由是美联储持续的资产负债表扩张。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3562aea27b24ad4921d0f5cd497e072\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"444\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The following chart looks that the price advance and valuation measures a little differently. It shows the current deviation from the long-term exponential growth trend. Not surprisingly, during a market<i>“melt-up,”</i>there is a rapid deviation from the growth trend matching the acceleration in valuations.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示，价格上涨和估值指标略有不同。它显示了当前与长期指数增长趋势的背离。毫不奇怪，在市场期间<i>“融化。”</i>与估值加速相匹配的增长趋势出现了快速背离。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1419cf4b2afdcdc0f61e0cad862f498d\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The problem with market<i>“melt-ups”</i>is not the melt-up itself but what always follows.</p><p><blockquote>市场的问题<i>“融化”</i>不是融化本身，而是随之而来的一切。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Melting-Up Leads To Melting-Down</b></p><p><blockquote><b>熔化导致熔化</b></blockquote></p><p> A market melting-up is exciting while it lasts. During melt-ups, investors begin to rationalize why<i>“this time is different.”</i>They start taking on excess leverage to try and capitalize on the rapid advance in prices, and fundamentals take a back seat to price momentum.</p><p><blockquote>市场融化持续下去是令人兴奋的。在熔断期间，投资者开始合理化原因<i>“这次不一样。”</i>他们开始过度杠杆，试图利用价格的快速上涨，基本面让位于价格动能。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Market melt-ups are all about<i>“psychology.”</i><b>Historically, whatever has been the catalyst to spark the disregard of risk is readily witnessed in the corresponding surge in price and valuations.</b>The chart below shows the long-term deviations in relative strength, deviations, and valuations. The previous<i>‘melt-up”</i>periods should be easy to spot when compared with the advance currently.</p><p><blockquote>市场融化都是关于<i>“心理学。”</i><b>从历史上看，无论引发忽视风险的催化剂是什么，都很容易在价格和估值的相应飙升中看到。</b>下图显示了相对强度、偏差和估值的长期偏差。上一篇<i>“融化”</i>与目前的进展相比，时期应该很容易发现。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc04cb25c0199dd17475a551a5dd7ec1\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Given that current extensions match only a few rare periods in history, a couple of points should be readily apparent.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于目前的延期仅与历史上少数罕见的时期相匹配，有几点应该是显而易见的。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><b><i>Melt-ups can longer than logic would predict.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>The prevailing psychology is always “this time is different.”</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Valuations are dismissed in exchange for measures of momentum and forward expectations.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Investors take on excess leverage and risk in order to participate in a seemingly “can’t lose” market.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Lastly, and inevitably, “melt-ups” end and always in the worst possible outcomes.</i></b></li> </ol> It is essential to recognize the markets are in a<i>“melt-up,</i>” and the duration of that event is unknowable. Therefore, investors need a strategy to participate in the advance and mitigate the damage from the eventual<i>“melting-down.”</i></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><b><i>融化的时间可能比逻辑预测的要长。</i></b></li><li><b><i>普遍的心理总是“这次不一样了”。</i></b></li><li><b><i>估值被驳回，以换取动量和前瞻性预期的衡量标准。</i></b></li><li><b><i>投资者为了参与一个看似“输不起”的市场，承担了过多的杠杆和风险。</i></b></li><li><b><i>最后，不可避免的是，“融化”以最糟糕的结果告终。</i></b></li></ol>必须认识到市场正处于<i>“融化，</i>“而且该事件的持续时间是未知的。因此，投资者需要一种策略来参与提前并减轻最终的损失<i>“熔化。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Surviving The Melt-Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在融化中幸存下来</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>As noted, none of this means the next</b><b><i>“bear market”</i></b><b>is lurking.</b>Given that a market melting-up is a function of psychology, they can last longer and go further than logic would predict. What is required to “<i>end”</i>a melt-up is an unanticipated exogenous event that changes psychology from bullish to bearish. Such is when the stampede for the exits occurs, and prices decline very quickly.</p><p><blockquote><b>如上所述，这些都不意味着下一个</b><b><i>“熊市”</i></b><b>正在潜伏。</b>鉴于市场融化是心理作用，它们可以持续更长时间，走得比逻辑预测的更远。需要什么“<i>结束“</i>融化是一种意想不到的外生事件，它将心理从看涨转变为看跌。这就是人们蜂拥退出的时候，价格会迅速下跌。</blockquote></p><p> As such, investors need a set of guidelines to participate in the market advance. But, of course, the hard part is keeping those gains when corrections inevitably occur.</p><p><blockquote>因此，投资者需要一套指导方针来参与市场上涨。但是，当然，困难的部分是在不可避免地发生调整时保持这些收益。</blockquote></p><p> As portfolio managers for our clients, such is precisely the approach we must take. Accordingly, I have provided a general overview of the process that we employ.</p><p><blockquote>作为客户的投资组合经理，这正是我们必须采取的方法。因此，我提供了我们采用的流程的总体概述。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><i><b>Tighten up stop-loss levels</b></i><i>to current support levels for each position.(Provides identifiable exit points when the market reverses.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Hedge portfolios</b></i><i>against major market declines.(Non-correlated assets, short-market positions, index put options)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Take profits</b></i><i>in positions that have been big winners(Rebalancing overbought or extended positions to capture gains but continue to participate in the advance.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Sell laggards</b></i><i>and losers</i>.<i>(If something isn’t working in a market melt-up, it most likely won’t work during a broad decline. Better to eliminate the risk early.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Raise cash</b></i><i>and rebalance portfolios to target weightings.(Rebalancing risk on a regular basis keeps hidden risks somewhat mitigated.)</i></li> </ol> <b>Notice, nothing in there says,</b><b><i>“sell everything and go to cash.”</i></b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><i><b>收紧止损水平</b></i><i>每个头寸的当前支撑位。（当市场反转时提供可识别的退出点。）</i></li><li><i><b>对冲投资组合</b></i><i>（非相关资产、空头市场头寸、指数看跌期权）</i></li><li><i><b>获利了结</b></i><i>在已经成为大赢家的头寸中（重新平衡超买或扩展头寸以获取收益，但继续参与上涨。）</i></li><li><i><b>出售落后者</b></i><i>和失败者</i>.<i>（如果某些东西在市场融化时不起作用，那么在广泛下跌时很可能也不会起作用。最好尽早消除风险。）</i></li><li><i><b>筹集现金</b></i><i>并重新平衡投资组合以达到目标权重。（定期重新平衡风险可以在一定程度上减轻隐藏的风险。）</i></li></ol><b>注意，里面没有任何东西说，</b><b><i>“卖掉所有东西，去兑现。”</i></b></blockquote></p><p> There will be a time to raise significant levels of cash. A good portfolio management strategy will automatically ensure that<i>“stop-loss”</i>levels get triggered, exposure decreases, and cash levels rise when the selling begins.</p><p><blockquote>将会有一段时间来筹集大量现金。一个好的投资组合管理策略将自动确保<i>“止损”</i>当出售开始时，水平被触发，风险减少，现金水平上升。</blockquote></p><p> While it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent<i>“this time is different.”</i></p><p><blockquote>虽然有必要在融化持续期间利用它，但不要过于自满<i>“这次不一样。”</i></blockquote></p><p> It likely isn’t.</p><p><blockquote>很可能不是。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Technically Speaking: Is The Market \"Melting-Up?\"<blockquote>从技术上讲：市场正在“融化”吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTechnically Speaking: Is The Market \"Melting-Up?\"<blockquote>从技术上讲：市场正在“融化”吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-29 10:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.</li>  <li>As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.</li>  <li>While it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent “this time is different”.</li> </ul> Is the<i>“market melting-up?”</i>Such was the question I received from my colleague at<i>Cut The Crap Investing.</i>It is an excellent question given the relentless increase in what investors believe is a<i>“no risk”</i>market.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>鉴于美联储正在进行的资产负债表操作，投资者完全相信他们有能力免受经济衰退的影响。</li><li>与往常一样，投资大众相信未来的收益将证明在融化期间价格上涨是合理的。从来都不是那样的。</li><li>虽然在融化持续期间利用它是至关重要的，但不要过于自满“这次不同了”。</li></ul>是<i>“市场融化？”</i>这是我从我的同事那里收到的问题<i>少废话投资。</i>考虑到投资者认为的持续增长，这是一个很好的问题<i>“没有风险”</i>市场。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, we need a definition of precisely what constitutes a melt-up.</p><p><blockquote>当然，我们需要一个准确定义什么是融化。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“A melt-up is a sustained and often unexpected improvement in the investment performance of an asset or asset class, driven partly</i>  <i><b>by a stampede of investors who don’t want to miss out on its rise,</b></i>  <i>rather than by fundamental improvements in the economy.“</i>–  <i>Investopedia</i>  Currently, there is sufficient evidence to support the idea of an exuberant market.<b><i>As noted previously:</i></b></p><p><blockquote><i>他说：“熔断是指一项资产或资产类别的投资表现持续且往往出乎意料的改善，部分原因是</i><i><b>不想错过其上涨机会的投资者蜂拥而至，</b></i><i>而不是经济的根本改善。”</i>–<i>投资百科</i>目前，有足够的证据支持市场繁荣的观点。<b><i>如前所述：</i></b></blockquote></p><p>   <i>“Near peaks of market cycles, investors become swept up by the underlying exuberance. That exuberance breeds the “rationalization” that “this time is different.” So how do you know the market is exuberant currently? Via Sentiment Trader:”</i>    <i>‘This type of market activity is an indication that markets have returned their ‘enthusiasm’ stage. Such is characterized by:’</i>  <ul>  <li><b><i>High optimism</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Easy credit (too easy, with loose terms)</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>A rush of initial and secondary offerings</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Risky stocks outperforming</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Stretched valuations</i></b></li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff8de3a84084162ca86b415584bbf793\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><i>“在市场周期接近峰值时，投资者会被潜在的繁荣所席卷。这种繁荣滋生了“合理化”，即“这次不同了”。那么，你如何知道市场目前是繁荣的呢？通过情绪交易者：”</i><i>这种类型的市场活动表明市场已经回到了“热情”阶段。其特征在于：</i><ul><li><b><i>高度乐观</i></b></li><li><b><i>宽松信贷（太宽松，条款宽松）</i></b></li><li><b><i>首次和二次发行热潮</i></b></li><li><b><i>风险股跑赢大盘</i></b></li><li><b><i>估值过高</i></b></li></ul></blockquote></p><p> However, while one would expect individuals to exhibit caution in such an environment, the opposite is true. Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.</p><p><blockquote>然而，虽然人们会期望个人在这样的环境中表现出谨慎，但事实恰恰相反。鉴于美联储正在进行的资产负债表操作，投资者完全相信他们有能力免受经济衰退的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Visualization Of A Market Melting-Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场融化的可视化</b></blockquote></p><p> It is often easier to visualize something rather than explain it.<b>Since 1900, only two previous market periods qualify as a melt-up: 1920-1929 and 1995-2000.</b>The chart below shows both periods in terms of price.</p><p><blockquote>想象某事通常比解释它更容易。<b>自1900年以来，只有两个市场时期符合熔化的条件：1920-1929年和1995-2000年。</b>下图显示了这两个时期的价格。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a218c7efe2ebd874d05c9ff7dd564436\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f193c9c32d55747bf7ff511c2f9fd53\" tg-width=\"793\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> However, the melt-up is also visually represented by the incredibly sharp rise in valuations. Such is essential because earnings are not rising at a fast enough clip to support higher prices.<b>As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，估值的大幅上涨也直观地体现了这种融化。这一点至关重要，因为盈利增长速度不足以支撑价格上涨。<b>与往常一样，投资大众相信未来的收益将证明在融化期间价格上涨是合理的。从来都不是那样的。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c69e418d5a19d6fd03b305ab111e3be3\" tg-width=\"794\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af03d3bbd071b8edfdf3a19e2c7b0bcd\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We can compare those two previous periods with the current advance from the March 2020 lows. Again, we see a very similar sharp advance in price combined with a surge in valuations. As expected, investors are currently hoping that future earnings will rise sharply enough to justify current prices. However, the justification for paying high prices is the Federal Reserve’s ongoing balance sheet expansion.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以将前两个时期与当前从2020年3月低点的上涨进行比较。我们再次看到非常相似的价格大幅上涨和估值飙升。正如预期的那样，投资者目前希望未来收益将大幅上涨，足以证明当前价格的合理性。然而，支付高价的理由是美联储持续的资产负债表扩张。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3562aea27b24ad4921d0f5cd497e072\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"444\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The following chart looks that the price advance and valuation measures a little differently. It shows the current deviation from the long-term exponential growth trend. Not surprisingly, during a market<i>“melt-up,”</i>there is a rapid deviation from the growth trend matching the acceleration in valuations.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示，价格上涨和估值指标略有不同。它显示了当前与长期指数增长趋势的背离。毫不奇怪，在市场期间<i>“融化。”</i>与估值加速相匹配的增长趋势出现了快速背离。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1419cf4b2afdcdc0f61e0cad862f498d\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The problem with market<i>“melt-ups”</i>is not the melt-up itself but what always follows.</p><p><blockquote>市场的问题<i>“融化”</i>不是融化本身，而是随之而来的一切。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Melting-Up Leads To Melting-Down</b></p><p><blockquote><b>熔化导致熔化</b></blockquote></p><p> A market melting-up is exciting while it lasts. During melt-ups, investors begin to rationalize why<i>“this time is different.”</i>They start taking on excess leverage to try and capitalize on the rapid advance in prices, and fundamentals take a back seat to price momentum.</p><p><blockquote>市场融化持续下去是令人兴奋的。在熔断期间，投资者开始合理化原因<i>“这次不一样。”</i>他们开始过度杠杆，试图利用价格的快速上涨，基本面让位于价格动能。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Market melt-ups are all about<i>“psychology.”</i><b>Historically, whatever has been the catalyst to spark the disregard of risk is readily witnessed in the corresponding surge in price and valuations.</b>The chart below shows the long-term deviations in relative strength, deviations, and valuations. The previous<i>‘melt-up”</i>periods should be easy to spot when compared with the advance currently.</p><p><blockquote>市场融化都是关于<i>“心理学。”</i><b>从历史上看，无论引发忽视风险的催化剂是什么，都很容易在价格和估值的相应飙升中看到。</b>下图显示了相对强度、偏差和估值的长期偏差。上一篇<i>“融化”</i>与目前的进展相比，时期应该很容易发现。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc04cb25c0199dd17475a551a5dd7ec1\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Given that current extensions match only a few rare periods in history, a couple of points should be readily apparent.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于目前的延期仅与历史上少数罕见的时期相匹配，有几点应该是显而易见的。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><b><i>Melt-ups can longer than logic would predict.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>The prevailing psychology is always “this time is different.”</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Valuations are dismissed in exchange for measures of momentum and forward expectations.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Investors take on excess leverage and risk in order to participate in a seemingly “can’t lose” market.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Lastly, and inevitably, “melt-ups” end and always in the worst possible outcomes.</i></b></li> </ol> It is essential to recognize the markets are in a<i>“melt-up,</i>” and the duration of that event is unknowable. Therefore, investors need a strategy to participate in the advance and mitigate the damage from the eventual<i>“melting-down.”</i></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><b><i>融化的时间可能比逻辑预测的要长。</i></b></li><li><b><i>普遍的心理总是“这次不一样了”。</i></b></li><li><b><i>估值被驳回，以换取动量和前瞻性预期的衡量标准。</i></b></li><li><b><i>投资者为了参与一个看似“输不起”的市场，承担了过多的杠杆和风险。</i></b></li><li><b><i>最后，不可避免的是，“融化”以最糟糕的结果告终。</i></b></li></ol>必须认识到市场正处于<i>“融化，</i>“而且该事件的持续时间是未知的。因此，投资者需要一种策略来参与提前并减轻最终的损失<i>“熔化。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Surviving The Melt-Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在融化中幸存下来</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>As noted, none of this means the next</b><b><i>“bear market”</i></b><b>is lurking.</b>Given that a market melting-up is a function of psychology, they can last longer and go further than logic would predict. What is required to “<i>end”</i>a melt-up is an unanticipated exogenous event that changes psychology from bullish to bearish. Such is when the stampede for the exits occurs, and prices decline very quickly.</p><p><blockquote><b>如上所述，这些都不意味着下一个</b><b><i>“熊市”</i></b><b>正在潜伏。</b>鉴于市场融化是心理作用，它们可以持续更长时间，走得比逻辑预测的更远。需要什么“<i>结束“</i>融化是一种意想不到的外生事件，它将心理从看涨转变为看跌。这就是人们蜂拥退出的时候，价格会迅速下跌。</blockquote></p><p> As such, investors need a set of guidelines to participate in the market advance. But, of course, the hard part is keeping those gains when corrections inevitably occur.</p><p><blockquote>因此，投资者需要一套指导方针来参与市场上涨。但是，当然，困难的部分是在不可避免地发生调整时保持这些收益。</blockquote></p><p> As portfolio managers for our clients, such is precisely the approach we must take. Accordingly, I have provided a general overview of the process that we employ.</p><p><blockquote>作为客户的投资组合经理，这正是我们必须采取的方法。因此，我提供了我们采用的流程的总体概述。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><i><b>Tighten up stop-loss levels</b></i><i>to current support levels for each position.(Provides identifiable exit points when the market reverses.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Hedge portfolios</b></i><i>against major market declines.(Non-correlated assets, short-market positions, index put options)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Take profits</b></i><i>in positions that have been big winners(Rebalancing overbought or extended positions to capture gains but continue to participate in the advance.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Sell laggards</b></i><i>and losers</i>.<i>(If something isn’t working in a market melt-up, it most likely won’t work during a broad decline. Better to eliminate the risk early.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Raise cash</b></i><i>and rebalance portfolios to target weightings.(Rebalancing risk on a regular basis keeps hidden risks somewhat mitigated.)</i></li> </ol> <b>Notice, nothing in there says,</b><b><i>“sell everything and go to cash.”</i></b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><i><b>收紧止损水平</b></i><i>每个头寸的当前支撑位。（当市场反转时提供可识别的退出点。）</i></li><li><i><b>对冲投资组合</b></i><i>（非相关资产、空头市场头寸、指数看跌期权）</i></li><li><i><b>获利了结</b></i><i>在已经成为大赢家的头寸中（重新平衡超买或扩展头寸以获取收益，但继续参与上涨。）</i></li><li><i><b>出售落后者</b></i><i>和失败者</i>.<i>（如果某些东西在市场融化时不起作用，那么在广泛下跌时很可能也不会起作用。最好尽早消除风险。）</i></li><li><i><b>筹集现金</b></i><i>并重新平衡投资组合以达到目标权重。（定期重新平衡风险可以在一定程度上减轻隐藏的风险。）</i></li></ol><b>注意，里面没有任何东西说，</b><b><i>“卖掉所有东西，去兑现。”</i></b></blockquote></p><p> There will be a time to raise significant levels of cash. A good portfolio management strategy will automatically ensure that<i>“stop-loss”</i>levels get triggered, exposure decreases, and cash levels rise when the selling begins.</p><p><blockquote>将会有一段时间来筹集大量现金。一个好的投资组合管理策略将自动确保<i>“止损”</i>当出售开始时，水平被触发，风险减少，现金水平上升。</blockquote></p><p> While it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent<i>“this time is different.”</i></p><p><blockquote>虽然有必要在融化持续期间利用它，但不要过于自满<i>“这次不一样。”</i></blockquote></p><p> It likely isn’t.</p><p><blockquote>很可能不是。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457469-technically-speaking-is-the-market-melting-up\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457469-technically-speaking-is-the-market-melting-up","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198528044","content_text":"Summary\n\nGiven the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.\nAs is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.\nWhile it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent “this time is different”.\n\nIs the“market melting-up?”Such was the question I received from my colleague atCut The Crap Investing.It is an excellent question given the relentless increase in what investors believe is a“no risk”market.\nOf course, we need a definition of precisely what constitutes a melt-up.\n\n“A melt-up is a sustained and often unexpected improvement in the investment performance of an asset or asset class, driven partly\nby a stampede of investors who don’t want to miss out on its rise,\nrather than by fundamental improvements in the economy.“–\n Investopedia\n\nCurrently, there is sufficient evidence to support the idea of an exuberant market.As noted previously:\n\n“Near peaks of market cycles, investors become swept up by the underlying exuberance. That exuberance breeds the “rationalization” that “this time is different.” So how do you know the market is exuberant currently? Via Sentiment Trader:”\n\n\n‘This type of market activity is an indication that markets have returned their ‘enthusiasm’ stage. Such is characterized by:’\n\n\nHigh optimism\nEasy credit (too easy, with loose terms)\nA rush of initial and secondary offerings\nRisky stocks outperforming\nStretched valuations\n\n\nHowever, while one would expect individuals to exhibit caution in such an environment, the opposite is true. Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.\nA Visualization Of A Market Melting-Up\nIt is often easier to visualize something rather than explain it.Since 1900, only two previous market periods qualify as a melt-up: 1920-1929 and 1995-2000.The chart below shows both periods in terms of price.\n\nHowever, the melt-up is also visually represented by the incredibly sharp rise in valuations. Such is essential because earnings are not rising at a fast enough clip to support higher prices.As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.\n\nWe can compare those two previous periods with the current advance from the March 2020 lows. Again, we see a very similar sharp advance in price combined with a surge in valuations. As expected, investors are currently hoping that future earnings will rise sharply enough to justify current prices. However, the justification for paying high prices is the Federal Reserve’s ongoing balance sheet expansion.\n\nThe following chart looks that the price advance and valuation measures a little differently. It shows the current deviation from the long-term exponential growth trend. Not surprisingly, during a market“melt-up,”there is a rapid deviation from the growth trend matching the acceleration in valuations.\n\nThe problem with market“melt-ups”is not the melt-up itself but what always follows.\nMelting-Up Leads To Melting-Down\nA market melting-up is exciting while it lasts. During melt-ups, investors begin to rationalize why“this time is different.”They start taking on excess leverage to try and capitalize on the rapid advance in prices, and fundamentals take a back seat to price momentum.\nMarket melt-ups are all about“psychology.”Historically, whatever has been the catalyst to spark the disregard of risk is readily witnessed in the corresponding surge in price and valuations.The chart below shows the long-term deviations in relative strength, deviations, and valuations. The previous‘melt-up”periods should be easy to spot when compared with the advance currently.\n\nGiven that current extensions match only a few rare periods in history, a couple of points should be readily apparent.\n\nMelt-ups can longer than logic would predict.\nThe prevailing psychology is always “this time is different.”\nValuations are dismissed in exchange for measures of momentum and forward expectations.\nInvestors take on excess leverage and risk in order to participate in a seemingly “can’t lose” market.\nLastly, and inevitably, “melt-ups” end and always in the worst possible outcomes.\n\nIt is essential to recognize the markets are in a“melt-up,” and the duration of that event is unknowable. Therefore, investors need a strategy to participate in the advance and mitigate the damage from the eventual“melting-down.”\nSurviving The Melt-Up\nAs noted, none of this means the next“bear market”is lurking.Given that a market melting-up is a function of psychology, they can last longer and go further than logic would predict. What is required to “end”a melt-up is an unanticipated exogenous event that changes psychology from bullish to bearish. Such is when the stampede for the exits occurs, and prices decline very quickly.\nAs such, investors need a set of guidelines to participate in the market advance. But, of course, the hard part is keeping those gains when corrections inevitably occur.\nAs portfolio managers for our clients, such is precisely the approach we must take. Accordingly, I have provided a general overview of the process that we employ.\n\nTighten up stop-loss levelsto current support levels for each position.(Provides identifiable exit points when the market reverses.)\nHedge portfoliosagainst major market declines.(Non-correlated assets, short-market positions, index put options)\nTake profitsin positions that have been big winners(Rebalancing overbought or extended positions to capture gains but continue to participate in the advance.)\nSell laggardsand losers.(If something isn’t working in a market melt-up, it most likely won’t work during a broad decline. Better to eliminate the risk early.)\nRaise cashand rebalance portfolios to target weightings.(Rebalancing risk on a regular basis keeps hidden risks somewhat mitigated.)\n\nNotice, nothing in there says,“sell everything and go to cash.”\nThere will be a time to raise significant levels of cash. A good portfolio management strategy will automatically ensure that“stop-loss”levels get triggered, exposure decreases, and cash levels rise when the selling begins.\nWhile it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent“this time is different.”\nIt likely isn’t.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":646,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":147882554,"gmtCreate":1626350145178,"gmtModify":1631892030789,"author":{"id":"3579599009721057","authorId":"3579599009721057","name":"leddjy","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579599009721057","idStr":"3579599009721057"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hmmm","listText":"Hmmm","text":"Hmmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/147882554","repostId":"1129377182","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":297,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":143635084,"gmtCreate":1625791112448,"gmtModify":1633937333430,"author":{"id":"3579599009721057","authorId":"3579599009721057","name":"leddjy","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579599009721057","idStr":"3579599009721057"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Today is Friday!","listText":"Today is Friday!","text":"Today is Friday!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/143635084","repostId":"1195657546","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":330,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":842570306,"gmtCreate":1636208702280,"gmtModify":1636208702716,"author":{"id":"3579599009721057","authorId":"3579599009721057","name":"leddjy","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579599009721057","idStr":"3579599009721057"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Happy weekend all!","listText":"Happy weekend all!","text":"Happy weekend all!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/842570306","repostId":"1173813098","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2171,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}