Jlenglui的个人主页 - 老虎社区

Jlenglui

Jlenglui

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IP属地：未知

133关注

196粉丝

0主题

0勋章

2025-02-21

$MSTR 20250228 300.0 PUT$ bitcoin bull mstr bull 🤣

2025-01-16

2025 Tiger Brokers Trade To Win

Anyone interested to join my team please join Find out more here:

2025 Tiger Brokers Trade To Win

2025-01-03

2025 Tiger Brokers Trade To Win

Come join my team. Find out more here:

2025 Tiger Brokers Trade To Win

2024-12-26

2025 Tiger Brokers Trade To Win

Join my team. With my record, let's fly together Find out more here:

2025 Tiger Brokers Trade To Win

2024-07-04

Aim to go in top 15 with this mo th performance.

2024-07-04

Good performance will do better this month

2024-07-04

500 coins

2024-06-28

Niceeee tiger thanks a lot

2024-06-20

so far i up 20%. using options is the king. just hedge the position using both put and call options. and let time be your friend

2021-12-19

Ij

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-12-16

Nice

Bank of England surprises again, this time with hike to 25bp from 10bp<blockquote>英国央行再次出人意料，这次加息从10个基点至25个基点</blockquote>

2021-11-27

Tfyfuf

@Jlenglui:Okiedokie ogxoydlyfpyfoyfpyflyfufut

2021-11-27

Okiedokie ogxoydlyfpyfoyfpyflyfufut

2021-08-17

Ok

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-08

Ok

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-07

Ok

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-07

Ok

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-07

ij

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-04

Ok

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-04

Ok

抱歉，原内容已删除

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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Find out more here:","listText":"Come join my team. Find out more here:","text":"Come join my team. Find out more here:","images":[{"img":"https://c1.itigergrowtha.com/files/h5-repos/market/stock-game/1200_630_1.png"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/388578275746144","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2442,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":385903066136848,"gmtCreate":1735225680850,"gmtModify":1735225701263,"author":{"id":"3579491276699992","authorId":"3579491276699992","name":"Jlenglui","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbbf978ba7471629b0f6a72b1497fce4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579491276699992","idStr":"3579491276699992"},"themes":[],"title":"2025 Tiger Brokers Trade To Win","htmlText":"Join my team. With my record, let's fly together Find out more here:","listText":"Join my team. With my record, let's fly together Find out more here:","text":"Join my team. With my record, let's fly together Find out more here:","images":[{"img":"https://c1.itigergrowtha.com/files/h5-repos/market/stock-game/1200_630_1.png"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385903066136848","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1594,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":323574301438096,"gmtCreate":1720023121047,"gmtModify":1720023125497,"author":{"id":"3579491276699992","authorId":"3579491276699992","name":"Jlenglui","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbbf978ba7471629b0f6a72b1497fce4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579491276699992","idStr":"3579491276699992"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Aim to go in top 15 with this mo th performance.&nbsp;","listText":"Aim to go in top 15 with this mo th performance.&nbsp;","text":"Aim to go in top 15 with this mo th performance.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/323574301438096","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1753,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":323574278467640,"gmtCreate":1720023083279,"gmtModify":1720023087198,"author":{"id":"3579491276699992","authorId":"3579491276699992","name":"Jlenglui","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbbf978ba7471629b0f6a72b1497fce4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579491276699992","idStr":"3579491276699992"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good performance will do better this month","listText":"Good performance will do better this month","text":"Good performance will do better this month","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/323574278467640","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1539,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":323574482690056,"gmtCreate":1720023005513,"gmtModify":1720023009285,"author":{"id":"3579491276699992","authorId":"3579491276699992","name":"Jlenglui","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbbf978ba7471629b0f6a72b1497fce4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579491276699992","idStr":"3579491276699992"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"500 coins","listText":"500 coins","text":"500 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lot","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/321766880694480","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2441,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":318955842441360,"gmtCreate":1718883600215,"gmtModify":1718883604863,"author":{"id":"3579491276699992","authorId":"3579491276699992","name":"Jlenglui","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbbf978ba7471629b0f6a72b1497fce4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579491276699992","idStr":"3579491276699992"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"so far i up 20%. using options is the king. just hedge the position using both put and call options. and let time be your friend","listText":"so far i up 20%. using options is the king. just hedge the position using both put and call options. and let time be your friend","text":"so far i up 20%. using options is the 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10bp<blockquote>英国央行再次出人意料，这次加息从10个基点至25个基点</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-16 20:03</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Bank of England surprises again, this time with hike to 25bp from 10bp,its vote to hike rates was 8 to 1.</p><p><blockquote>英国央行再次出人意料，这次加息从10个基点升至25个基点，其加息投票结果为8比1。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179149645","content_text":"Bank of England surprises again, this time with hike to 25bp from 10bp,its vote to hike rates was 8 to 1.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1702,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":833882427,"gmtCreate":1629215990969,"gmtModify":1631889654373,"author":{"id":"3579491276699992","authorId":"3579491276699992","name":"Jlenglui","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbbf978ba7471629b0f6a72b1497fce4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579491276699992","idStr":"3579491276699992"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/833882427","repostId":"1132985416","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":981,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":142291652,"gmtCreate":1626150727476,"gmtModify":1633929606111,"author":{"id":"3579491276699992","authorId":"3579491276699992","name":"Jlenglui","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbbf978ba7471629b0f6a72b1497fce4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579491276699992","idStr":"3579491276699992"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/142291652","repostId":"1129204116","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129204116","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626053358,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1129204116?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-12 09:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman Has Three Questions For Companies During Q2 Earnings Season<blockquote>高盛在第二季度财报季向公司提出了三个问题</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129204116","media":"zerohedge","summary":"2Q earnings season kicks off next week when the big banks kick off reporting as usual, and consensus","content":"<p>2Q earnings season kicks off next week when the big banks kick off reporting as usual, and consensus expects 2Q EPS growth of 61% year/year, driven by a combination of base effect, 22% sales growth and 256 bps of net margin expansion to 11.1% even though the median stock is forecast to grow EPS by a more modest 24%. Compare this to one year ago, when S&amp;P 500 EPS fell by 32% as the pandemic sparked a sharp recession. Cyclical Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, and Materials sectors are forecast to lead the index in EPS growth.</p><p><blockquote>第二季度财报季将于下周拉开帷幕，届时各大银行将照常发布财报，市场普遍预计第二季度每股收益同比增长 61%，这得益于基数效应、22% 的销售增长和 256 个基点的净利润率扩张至 11.1%，尽管预计股票中值每股收益将增长较为温和的 24%。相比之下，一年前，由于疫情引发严重衰退，标普500每股收益下降了 32%。周期性工业、非必需消费品和材料行业预计将引领该指数的每股收益增长。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97d96a80eab68f78b39d83abd789745e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"336\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> In 2Q 2020, Brent crude traded at an average of $33/bbl and Energy stocks posted an aggregate net loss. Oil prices averaged $69/bblin 2Q and Energy firms are expected to return to profitability.</p><p><blockquote>2020年第二季度，布伦特原油平均交易价格为33美元/桶，能源股出现总净亏损。第二季度油价平均为69美元/桶，能源公司预计将恢复盈利。</blockquote></p><p> Like last quarter, Financials are expected to be the primary driver of S&amp;P 500 EPS growth. In 1Q, Financials represented $3 of the total $9 EPS beat versus consensus expectations.<b>Financials EPS are forecast to grow by 116% in 2Q and account for 25% of S&amp;P 500 EPS growth.</b>Most banks analysts expect results to come in largely in line with consensus after adjusting for reserve releases. Capital markets activity has normalized following the strong pace in 2020 and 1Q 2021. However,<b>large reserve releases will boost EPS for the third quarter in a row and could drive up to 18% EPS uplift for Banks by year-end.</b>Though investors are not likely to reward these beats outright since releases are non-recurring, analysts expect that the market will pay for the capital return that could result from the earnings tailwind and the recent CCAR results.</p><p><blockquote>与上一季度一样，金融业预计将成为标普500每股收益增长的主要驱动力。第一季度，金融股占 9 美元每股收益总额的 3 美元，超出了普遍预期。<b>预计第二季度金融每股收益将增长 116%，占标普500每股收益增长的 25%。</b>大多数银行分析师预计，在调整准备金释放后，业绩将基本符合共识。继 2020 年和 2021 年第一季度的强劲势头之后，资本市场活动已恢复正常。然而，<b>大量准备金释放将连续第三个季度提振每股收益，并可能推动银行到年底每股收益增长高达 18%。</b>尽管投资者不太可能直接奖励这些节拍，因为发布不是经常性的，但分析师预计市场将为盈利顺风和最近的 CCAR 业绩可能带来的资本回报买单。</blockquote></p><p> Another notable point:<b>while consensus expects S&amp;P 500 EPS to grow by 61%, the median stock is only forecast to grow earnings by 24%.</b></p><p><blockquote>另一个值得注意的点：<b>虽然普遍预计标普500每股收益将增长 61%，但该股的盈利预计中位数仅增长 24%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06b7ce6f61cb168c376424758fc9c5f0\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"326\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The greater rebound in aggregate earnings is largely a function of the base effect, or the sharper decline in earnings in 2020; the median S&amp;P 500 stock saw its EPS fall by just 12% year/year in 2Q 2020 compared with the 32% decline in aggregate earnings.<b>The five largest stocks in the index (FB, AMZN, AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL) account for 22% of market cap and 14% of S&amp;P 500 2Q 2021 EPS.</b>Despite last year’s acute 2Q economic contraction, these firms actually posted average EPS growth of 38% and are still expected to grow earnings by an average of 52% in 2Q 2021.</p><p><blockquote>总盈利的更大反弹在很大程度上是基数效应的函数，或者是2020年盈利更大幅度下降的函数；2020 年第二季度，标普500股票的每股收益中值仅同比下降 12%，而总收益则下降了 32%。<b>该指数中最大的五只股票（FB、AMZN、AAPL、MSFT、GOOGL）占标普500 2021 年第二季度每股收益的 22% 和 14%。</b>尽管去年第二季度经济急剧萎缩，但这些公司的平均每股收益增长率为 38%，预计 2021 年第二季度的盈利仍将平均增长 52%。</blockquote></p><p> In his preview of Q2 earnings season, Goldman's chief equity strategist David Kostin -<b>who expects the S&amp;P to close the year at 4,300 or -0.5% lower from Friday's record close</b>- focuses on three questions for managements this earnings season:</p><p><blockquote>高盛首席股票策略师 David Kostin 在第二季度财报季预览中表示 -<b>世卫组织预计标准普尔今年收于 4,300 点，较周五创纪录的收盘价下跌 -0.5%</b>- 本财报季重点关注管理层的三个问题：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>How will firms preserve profit margins amid input cost pressures?</li>  <li>How will companies prioritize their cash spending as balance sheets recover?</li>  <li>How does ongoing policy uncertainty affect the business outlook? Rates have plunged and high “quality” themes are outperforming.</li> </ol> <i>Digging a little deeper</i></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>在投入成本压力下，企业将如何保持利润率？</li><li>随着资产负债表的恢复，公司将如何优先考虑现金支出？</li><li>持续的政策不确定性如何影响业务前景？费率大幅下降，高 “质量 ”主题的表现优于市场。</li></ol><i>再深入一点</i></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>1. How will companies preserve margins amid input cost pressures?</b>S&amp;P 500 margins notched a record high of 11.9% in&nbsp; 1Q 2021, though investors remain focused on the forward margin outlook given rising input costs.<b>Global shipping woes, raw material inflation as well as acute shortages in both labor and semiconductors have combined to increase costs for companies across the by raising prices and passing higher input costs to their customers.</b>During Q1 calls, many companies discussed price increases and this trend will likely continue during 2Q earnings. Alternatively, with SG&amp;A as a share of sales elevated versus history, companies can also preserve margins through cost cutting. As an example, General Mills announced last week that it faces some of the highest costs in a decade and will implement a mix of both cost cuts and price increases.</li>  <li><b>2. Investors have started to reward companies with attractive margin profiles.</b>According to Goldman, profit margins are the second most important driver of company valuations today, behind only equity duration. The bank's sector-neutral factor of stocks with the highest vs. lowest profit margins has also started to outperform.<i>Other “quality” factors such as strong vs. weak balance sheets and high vs. low returns on capital have also inflected higher since early June.</i></li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c48adec9ce9ac7f02c3a669e37e358e4\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"350\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>1. 在投入成本压力下，企业将如何保持利润率？</b>2021 年第一季度，标普500利润率创下 11.9% 的历史新高，但鉴于投入成本上升，投资者仍关注未来利润率前景。<b>全球航运困境、原材料通货膨胀以及劳动力和半导体的严重短缺，通过提高价格并将更高的投入成本转嫁给客户，增加了各地公司的成本。</b>在第一季度评级期间，许多公司讨论了价格上涨，这一趋势可能会在第二季度财报期间继续下去。或者，随着 SG&amp;A 在销售额中的份额比历史有所增加，公司还可以通过削减成本来保持利润率。例如，通用磨坊上周宣布，它面临着十年来最高的一些成本，并将实施削减成本和提价相结合的措施。</li><li><b>2. 投资者已经开始奖励具有吸引力的利润率概况的公司。</b>高盛表示，利润率是当今公司估值的第二大驱动因素，仅次于股权存续期。该银行利润率最高与最低的股票的行业中立因素也开始跑赢大盘。<i>自 6 月初以来，其他 “质量 ”因素，如资产负债表强弱、资本回报率高与低，也出现了波动。</i></li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>3. How will companies prioritize their cash spending as balance sheets recover?</b>Both aggregate and median S&amp;P 500 cash / assets ratios have rebounded and now stand at record levels, driven in part by record high corporate bond and follow-on equity issuance during the last 18 months. And while leverage remains elevated versus history, it has been falling as corporate profits have started to improve. Info Tech and Consumer Discretionary hold the highest cash / asset ratios of any sectors and account for 43% of total S&amp;P 500 ex-Financials cash.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7c869205feb07f0e0dae0023005dbd0\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"350\">For what it's worth, Goldman expects capex will represent the largest share of S&amp;P 500 cash use in 2021, but forecasts the fastest year/year growth will be in cash M&amp;A and share buybacks. After a 10% decline in cash spending in 2020, the bank forecasts that high cash balances, anemic yields as well as strong economic and earnings growth will combine to drive 19% growth in cash spending in 2021 ($2.8 trillion) and 6% in 2022 ($3 trillion). Investing for growth (capex, R&amp;D, and cash M&amp;A) should account for 55% of total cash spending in 2021.<b>High cash balances, record buyback authorizations, and excess capital for Financials post-CCAR should also drive a 35% rebound in buybacks in 2021.</b>Indeed, data from the bank's buybacks desk show that US<b>corporates have authorized $627 billion in buybacks YTD, the second-fastest pace on record</b>(only behind the tax reform aided level in 2018) and 155% above 2020 levels</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>3. 随着资产负债表的恢复，公司将如何优先考虑现金支出？</b>标普500现金/资产比率的总体和中位数均已反弹，目前处于创纪录水平，部分原因是过去 18 个月创纪录的高位公司债券和后续股票发行。尽管杠杆率与历史相比仍然较高，但随着企业利润开始改善，杠杆率一直在下降。信息技术和非必需消费品的现金/资产比率是所有行业中最高的，占标普500除金融外现金总额的43%。</li></ul>无论如何，高盛预计资本支出将在2021年占标普500现金使用的最大份额，但预测同比增长最快的将是现金并购和股票回购。在 2020 年现金支出下降 10% 后，该银行预测，高现金余额、低收益率以及强劲的经济和盈利增长将共同推动 2021 年现金支出增长 19%（2.8 万亿美元），2022 年增长 6%（3 万亿美元）。2021年，增长投资（资本支出、R&amp;D和现金并购）应占总现金支出的55%。<b>高现金余额、创纪录的回购授权以及后 CCAR 时代金融公司的过剩资本也应该会推动 2021 年回购量反弹 35%。</b>事实上，该银行回购部门的数据显示，我们<b>今年迄今为止，企业已授权 6,270 亿美元回购，增速创历史第二快</b>（仅落后于2018年税改援助水平），比2020年水平高出155%</blockquote></p><p> In terms of preferred trades, Kostin highlights a screen of stocks with above-average net margins, realized margin growth of 50+ bp in 2020, and expected margin growth of 50+ bp in each of the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>在优先交易方面，Kostin 重点介绍了净利润率高于平均水平、2020 年实现利润率增长 50 多个基点以及预计未来两年每年利润率增长 50 多个基点的股票。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd5a1c4bf80144b4c161f6e0ef5627ff\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"899\">The median stock has a 2021E net margin of 26% (vs. 13% for S&amp;P 500 median) and is forecast to grow margins by 306 bp through 2022 and (vs. 156 bp for median stock).</p><p><blockquote>中位数股票的 2021 年净利润率为 26%（标普500中位数为 13%），预计到 2022 年利润率将增长 306 个基点（中位数股票为 156 个基点）。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Has Three Questions For Companies During Q2 Earnings Season<blockquote>高盛在第二季度财报季向公司提出了三个问题</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-12 09:29</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>2Q earnings season kicks off next week when the big banks kick off reporting as usual, and consensus expects 2Q EPS growth of 61% year/year, driven by a combination of base effect, 22% sales growth and 256 bps of net margin expansion to 11.1% even though the median stock is forecast to grow EPS by a more modest 24%. Compare this to one year ago, when S&amp;P 500 EPS fell by 32% as the pandemic sparked a sharp recession. Cyclical Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, and Materials sectors are forecast to lead the index in EPS growth.</p><p><blockquote>第二季度财报季将于下周拉开帷幕，届时各大银行将照常发布财报，市场普遍预计第二季度每股收益同比增长 61%，这得益于基数效应、22% 的销售增长和 256 个基点的净利润率扩张至 11.1%，尽管预计股票中值每股收益将增长较为温和的 24%。相比之下，一年前，由于疫情引发严重衰退，标普500每股收益下降了 32%。周期性工业、非必需消费品和材料行业预计将引领该指数的每股收益增长。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97d96a80eab68f78b39d83abd789745e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"336\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> In 2Q 2020, Brent crude traded at an average of $33/bbl and Energy stocks posted an aggregate net loss. Oil prices averaged $69/bblin 2Q and Energy firms are expected to return to profitability.</p><p><blockquote>2020年第二季度，布伦特原油平均交易价格为33美元/桶，能源股出现总净亏损。第二季度油价平均为69美元/桶，能源公司预计将恢复盈利。</blockquote></p><p> Like last quarter, Financials are expected to be the primary driver of S&amp;P 500 EPS growth. In 1Q, Financials represented $3 of the total $9 EPS beat versus consensus expectations.<b>Financials EPS are forecast to grow by 116% in 2Q and account for 25% of S&amp;P 500 EPS growth.</b>Most banks analysts expect results to come in largely in line with consensus after adjusting for reserve releases. Capital markets activity has normalized following the strong pace in 2020 and 1Q 2021. However,<b>large reserve releases will boost EPS for the third quarter in a row and could drive up to 18% EPS uplift for Banks by year-end.</b>Though investors are not likely to reward these beats outright since releases are non-recurring, analysts expect that the market will pay for the capital return that could result from the earnings tailwind and the recent CCAR results.</p><p><blockquote>与上一季度一样，金融业预计将成为标普500每股收益增长的主要驱动力。第一季度，金融股占 9 美元每股收益总额的 3 美元，超出了普遍预期。<b>预计第二季度金融每股收益将增长 116%，占标普500每股收益增长的 25%。</b>大多数银行分析师预计，在调整准备金释放后，业绩将基本符合共识。继 2020 年和 2021 年第一季度的强劲势头之后，资本市场活动已恢复正常。然而，<b>大量准备金释放将连续第三个季度提振每股收益，并可能推动银行到年底每股收益增长高达 18%。</b>尽管投资者不太可能直接奖励这些节拍，因为发布不是经常性的，但分析师预计市场将为盈利顺风和最近的 CCAR 业绩可能带来的资本回报买单。</blockquote></p><p> Another notable point:<b>while consensus expects S&amp;P 500 EPS to grow by 61%, the median stock is only forecast to grow earnings by 24%.</b></p><p><blockquote>另一个值得注意的点：<b>虽然普遍预计标普500每股收益将增长 61%，但该股的盈利预计中位数仅增长 24%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06b7ce6f61cb168c376424758fc9c5f0\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"326\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The greater rebound in aggregate earnings is largely a function of the base effect, or the sharper decline in earnings in 2020; the median S&amp;P 500 stock saw its EPS fall by just 12% year/year in 2Q 2020 compared with the 32% decline in aggregate earnings.<b>The five largest stocks in the index (FB, AMZN, AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL) account for 22% of market cap and 14% of S&amp;P 500 2Q 2021 EPS.</b>Despite last year’s acute 2Q economic contraction, these firms actually posted average EPS growth of 38% and are still expected to grow earnings by an average of 52% in 2Q 2021.</p><p><blockquote>总盈利的更大反弹在很大程度上是基数效应的函数，或者是2020年盈利更大幅度下降的函数；2020 年第二季度，标普500股票的每股收益中值仅同比下降 12%，而总收益则下降了 32%。<b>该指数中最大的五只股票（FB、AMZN、AAPL、MSFT、GOOGL）占标普500 2021 年第二季度每股收益的 22% 和 14%。</b>尽管去年第二季度经济急剧萎缩，但这些公司的平均每股收益增长率为 38%，预计 2021 年第二季度的盈利仍将平均增长 52%。</blockquote></p><p> In his preview of Q2 earnings season, Goldman's chief equity strategist David Kostin -<b>who expects the S&amp;P to close the year at 4,300 or -0.5% lower from Friday's record close</b>- focuses on three questions for managements this earnings season:</p><p><blockquote>高盛首席股票策略师 David Kostin 在第二季度财报季预览中表示 -<b>世卫组织预计标准普尔今年收于 4,300 点，较周五创纪录的收盘价下跌 -0.5%</b>- 本财报季重点关注管理层的三个问题：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>How will firms preserve profit margins amid input cost pressures?</li>  <li>How will companies prioritize their cash spending as balance sheets recover?</li>  <li>How does ongoing policy uncertainty affect the business outlook? Rates have plunged and high “quality” themes are outperforming.</li> </ol> <i>Digging a little deeper</i></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>在投入成本压力下，企业将如何保持利润率？</li><li>随着资产负债表的恢复，公司将如何优先考虑现金支出？</li><li>持续的政策不确定性如何影响业务前景？费率大幅下降，高 “质量 ”主题的表现优于市场。</li></ol><i>再深入一点</i></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>1. How will companies preserve margins amid input cost pressures?</b>S&amp;P 500 margins notched a record high of 11.9% in&nbsp; 1Q 2021, though investors remain focused on the forward margin outlook given rising input costs.<b>Global shipping woes, raw material inflation as well as acute shortages in both labor and semiconductors have combined to increase costs for companies across the by raising prices and passing higher input costs to their customers.</b>During Q1 calls, many companies discussed price increases and this trend will likely continue during 2Q earnings. Alternatively, with SG&amp;A as a share of sales elevated versus history, companies can also preserve margins through cost cutting. As an example, General Mills announced last week that it faces some of the highest costs in a decade and will implement a mix of both cost cuts and price increases.</li>  <li><b>2. Investors have started to reward companies with attractive margin profiles.</b>According to Goldman, profit margins are the second most important driver of company valuations today, behind only equity duration. The bank's sector-neutral factor of stocks with the highest vs. lowest profit margins has also started to outperform.<i>Other “quality” factors such as strong vs. weak balance sheets and high vs. low returns on capital have also inflected higher since early June.</i></li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c48adec9ce9ac7f02c3a669e37e358e4\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"350\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>1. 在投入成本压力下，企业将如何保持利润率？</b>2021 年第一季度，标普500利润率创下 11.9% 的历史新高，但鉴于投入成本上升，投资者仍关注未来利润率前景。<b>全球航运困境、原材料通货膨胀以及劳动力和半导体的严重短缺，通过提高价格并将更高的投入成本转嫁给客户，增加了各地公司的成本。</b>在第一季度评级期间，许多公司讨论了价格上涨，这一趋势可能会在第二季度财报期间继续下去。或者，随着 SG&amp;A 在销售额中的份额比历史有所增加，公司还可以通过削减成本来保持利润率。例如，通用磨坊上周宣布，它面临着十年来最高的一些成本，并将实施削减成本和提价相结合的措施。</li><li><b>2. 投资者已经开始奖励具有吸引力的利润率概况的公司。</b>高盛表示，利润率是当今公司估值的第二大驱动因素，仅次于股权存续期。该银行利润率最高与最低的股票的行业中立因素也开始跑赢大盘。<i>自 6 月初以来，其他 “质量 ”因素，如资产负债表强弱、资本回报率高与低，也出现了波动。</i></li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>3. How will companies prioritize their cash spending as balance sheets recover?</b>Both aggregate and median S&amp;P 500 cash / assets ratios have rebounded and now stand at record levels, driven in part by record high corporate bond and follow-on equity issuance during the last 18 months. And while leverage remains elevated versus history, it has been falling as corporate profits have started to improve. Info Tech and Consumer Discretionary hold the highest cash / asset ratios of any sectors and account for 43% of total S&amp;P 500 ex-Financials cash.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7c869205feb07f0e0dae0023005dbd0\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"350\">For what it's worth, Goldman expects capex will represent the largest share of S&amp;P 500 cash use in 2021, but forecasts the fastest year/year growth will be in cash M&amp;A and share buybacks. After a 10% decline in cash spending in 2020, the bank forecasts that high cash balances, anemic yields as well as strong economic and earnings growth will combine to drive 19% growth in cash spending in 2021 ($2.8 trillion) and 6% in 2022 ($3 trillion). Investing for growth (capex, R&amp;D, and cash M&amp;A) should account for 55% of total cash spending in 2021.<b>High cash balances, record buyback authorizations, and excess capital for Financials post-CCAR should also drive a 35% rebound in buybacks in 2021.</b>Indeed, data from the bank's buybacks desk show that US<b>corporates have authorized $627 billion in buybacks YTD, the second-fastest pace on record</b>(only behind the tax reform aided level in 2018) and 155% above 2020 levels</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>3. 随着资产负债表的恢复，公司将如何优先考虑现金支出？</b>标普500现金/资产比率的总体和中位数均已反弹，目前处于创纪录水平，部分原因是过去 18 个月创纪录的高位公司债券和后续股票发行。尽管杠杆率与历史相比仍然较高，但随着企业利润开始改善，杠杆率一直在下降。信息技术和非必需消费品的现金/资产比率是所有行业中最高的，占标普500除金融外现金总额的43%。</li></ul>无论如何，高盛预计资本支出将在2021年占标普500现金使用的最大份额，但预测同比增长最快的将是现金并购和股票回购。在 2020 年现金支出下降 10% 后，该银行预测，高现金余额、低收益率以及强劲的经济和盈利增长将共同推动 2021 年现金支出增长 19%（2.8 万亿美元），2022 年增长 6%（3 万亿美元）。2021年，增长投资（资本支出、R&amp;D和现金并购）应占总现金支出的55%。<b>高现金余额、创纪录的回购授权以及后 CCAR 时代金融公司的过剩资本也应该会推动 2021 年回购量反弹 35%。</b>事实上，该银行回购部门的数据显示，我们<b>今年迄今为止，企业已授权 6,270 亿美元回购，增速创历史第二快</b>（仅落后于2018年税改援助水平），比2020年水平高出155%</blockquote></p><p> In terms of preferred trades, Kostin highlights a screen of stocks with above-average net margins, realized margin growth of 50+ bp in 2020, and expected margin growth of 50+ bp in each of the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>在优先交易方面，Kostin 重点介绍了净利润率高于平均水平、2020 年实现利润率增长 50 多个基点以及预计未来两年每年利润率增长 50 多个基点的股票。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd5a1c4bf80144b4c161f6e0ef5627ff\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"899\">The median stock has a 2021E net margin of 26% (vs. 13% for S&amp;P 500 median) and is forecast to grow margins by 306 bp through 2022 and (vs. 156 bp for median stock).</p><p><blockquote>中位数股票的 2021 年净利润率为 26%（标普500中位数为 13%），预计到 2022 年利润率将增长 306 个基点（中位数股票为 156 个基点）。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-has-three-questions-companies-during-q2-earnings-season\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-has-three-questions-companies-during-q2-earnings-season","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129204116","content_text":"2Q earnings season kicks off next week when the big banks kick off reporting as usual, and consensus expects 2Q EPS growth of 61% year/year, driven by a combination of base effect, 22% sales growth and 256 bps of net margin expansion to 11.1% even though the median stock is forecast to grow EPS by a more modest 24%. Compare this to one year ago, when S&P 500 EPS fell by 32% as the pandemic sparked a sharp recession. Cyclical Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, and Materials sectors are forecast to lead the index in EPS growth.\n\nIn 2Q 2020, Brent crude traded at an average of $33/bbl and Energy stocks posted an aggregate net loss. Oil prices averaged $69/bblin 2Q and Energy firms are expected to return to profitability.\nLike last quarter, Financials are expected to be the primary driver of S&P 500 EPS growth. In 1Q, Financials represented $3 of the total $9 EPS beat versus consensus expectations.Financials EPS are forecast to grow by 116% in 2Q and account for 25% of S&P 500 EPS growth.Most banks analysts expect results to come in largely in line with consensus after adjusting for reserve releases. Capital markets activity has normalized following the strong pace in 2020 and 1Q 2021. However,large reserve releases will boost EPS for the third quarter in a row and could drive up to 18% EPS uplift for Banks by year-end.Though investors are not likely to reward these beats outright since releases are non-recurring, analysts expect that the market will pay for the capital return that could result from the earnings tailwind and the recent CCAR results.\nAnother notable point:while consensus expects S&P 500 EPS to grow by 61%, the median stock is only forecast to grow earnings by 24%.\n\nThe greater rebound in aggregate earnings is largely a function of the base effect, or the sharper decline in earnings in 2020; the median S&P 500 stock saw its EPS fall by just 12% year/year in 2Q 2020 compared with the 32% decline in aggregate earnings.The five largest stocks in the index (FB, AMZN, AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL) account for 22% of market cap and 14% of S&P 500 2Q 2021 EPS.Despite last year’s acute 2Q economic contraction, these firms actually posted average EPS growth of 38% and are still expected to grow earnings by an average of 52% in 2Q 2021.\nIn his preview of Q2 earnings season, Goldman's chief equity strategist David Kostin -who expects the S&P to close the year at 4,300 or -0.5% lower from Friday's record close- focuses on three questions for managements this earnings season:\n\nHow will firms preserve profit margins amid input cost pressures?\nHow will companies prioritize their cash spending as balance sheets recover?\nHow does ongoing policy uncertainty affect the business outlook? Rates have plunged and high “quality” themes are outperforming.\n\nDigging a little deeper\n\n1. How will companies preserve margins amid input cost pressures?S&P 500 margins notched a record high of 11.9% in  1Q 2021, though investors remain focused on the forward margin outlook given rising input costs.Global shipping woes, raw material inflation as well as acute shortages in both labor and semiconductors have combined to increase costs for companies across the by raising prices and passing higher input costs to their customers.During Q1 calls, many companies discussed price increases and this trend will likely continue during 2Q earnings. Alternatively, with SG&A as a share of sales elevated versus history, companies can also preserve margins through cost cutting. As an example, General Mills announced last week that it faces some of the highest costs in a decade and will implement a mix of both cost cuts and price increases.\n2. Investors have started to reward companies with attractive margin profiles.According to Goldman, profit margins are the second most important driver of company valuations today, behind only equity duration. The bank's sector-neutral factor of stocks with the highest vs. lowest profit margins has also started to outperform.Other “quality” factors such as strong vs. weak balance sheets and high vs. low returns on capital have also inflected higher since early June.\n\n\n\n3. How will companies prioritize their cash spending as balance sheets recover?Both aggregate and median S&P 500 cash / assets ratios have rebounded and now stand at record levels, driven in part by record high corporate bond and follow-on equity issuance during the last 18 months. And while leverage remains elevated versus history, it has been falling as corporate profits have started to improve. Info Tech and Consumer Discretionary hold the highest cash / asset ratios of any sectors and account for 43% of total S&P 500 ex-Financials cash.\n\nFor what it's worth, Goldman expects capex will represent the largest share of S&P 500 cash use in 2021, but forecasts the fastest year/year growth will be in cash M&A and share buybacks. After a 10% decline in cash spending in 2020, the bank forecasts that high cash balances, anemic yields as well as strong economic and earnings growth will combine to drive 19% growth in cash spending in 2021 ($2.8 trillion) and 6% in 2022 ($3 trillion). Investing for growth (capex, R&D, and cash M&A) should account for 55% of total cash spending in 2021.High cash balances, record buyback authorizations, and excess capital for Financials post-CCAR should also drive a 35% rebound in buybacks in 2021.Indeed, data from the bank's buybacks desk show that UScorporates have authorized $627 billion in buybacks YTD, the second-fastest pace on record(only behind the tax reform aided level in 2018) and 155% above 2020 levels\nIn terms of preferred trades, Kostin highlights a screen of stocks with above-average net margins, realized margin growth of 50+ bp in 2020, and expected margin growth of 50+ bp in each of the next two years.\nThe median stock has a 2021E net margin of 26% (vs. 13% for S&P 500 median) and is forecast to grow margins by 306 bp through 2022 and (vs. 156 bp for median stock).","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":779,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":371913867,"gmtCreate":1618900932259,"gmtModify":1634290028771,"author":{"id":"3579491276699992","authorId":"3579491276699992","name":"Jlenglui","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbbf978ba7471629b0f6a72b1497fce4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579491276699992","idStr":"3579491276699992"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok&nbsp;","listText":"Ok&nbsp;","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/371913867","repostId":"1151028630","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":676,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}