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2021-09-21

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2021-09-13

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2021-09-13

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U.S. stocks open solidly higher Monday following worst weekly decline in about 3 months<blockquote>继约三个月来最严重单周跌幅后，美国股市周一大幅高开</blockquote>

2021-09-11

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2021-09-11

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Why Apple’s Risk Is Limited<blockquote>为什么苹果的风险有限</blockquote>

2021-09-10

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2021-09-10

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2021-09-10

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2021-09-08

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2021-09-08

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2021-09-05

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2021-09-05

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Beat the market with this quant system that’s very bullish on stocks at record highs<blockquote>利用这个非常看好历史新高股票的量化系统击败市场</blockquote>

2021-09-04

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2021-09-03

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August Payrolls Preview: It Will Be A Miss, The Question Is How Big<blockquote>8月就业前瞻：这将是一个失误，问题是有多大</blockquote>

2021-09-02

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2021-09-02

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2021-09-01

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2021-09-01

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Apple shares rose nearly 2% in early trading<blockquote>苹果股价早盘上涨近2%</blockquote>

2021-08-13

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2021-08-13

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Disney earnings preview: Growth in Disney+, parks in focus amid reopenings<blockquote>迪士尼盈利预览：Disney+的增长，公园在重新开放中成为焦点</blockquote>

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The S&amp;P 500 gained 0.7% and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.6%.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯指数上涨约240点，涨幅0.7%。标普500上涨0.7%，纳斯达克综合指数上涨0.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99d05df35cd84a09bab95f1d02ff1457\" tg-width=\"1052\" tg-height=\"446\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The bounce comes after the Dow and S&amp;P posting a fifth straight day of losses, while the Nasdaq Composite registered its third consecutive negative session. For the S&amp;P 500, that was its worst losing streak since February 22.</p><p><blockquote>此次反弹是在道琼斯指数和标准普尔指数连续第五天下跌，而纳斯达克综合指数连续第三个交易日下跌之后发生的。对于标普500来说，这是自2月22日以来最严重的连跌。</blockquote></p><p> \"With supply chain disruptions, COVID-19 variant risk, stickier than expected inflation along with other uncertainties that challenge the present recovery's path toward a sustainable economic expansion the age old adage 'progress not perfection' among current developments appears best suited for investors to focus on for now,\" Oppenheimer's John Stoltzfus said in a note Monday.</p><p><blockquote>“由于供应链中断、COVID-19变种风险、通胀粘性强于预期以及其他挑战当前复苏通往可持续经济扩张之路的不确定性，当前发展中的古老格言‘进步而非完美’似乎最适合投资者关注目前，”奥本海默的约翰·斯托尔茨福斯周一在一份报告中表示。</blockquote></p><p> Covid cases appear to be trending lower in the U.S. with a 7-day average through Friday of about 136,000, down from 157,000 average new cases at the end of August, according to the CDC. Pfizer's Covid vaccine could be&nbsp;authorized for children by the end of next month, sources familiar told Reuters.</p><p><blockquote>根据CDC的数据，美国的Covid病例似乎呈下降趋势，截至周五的7天平均新增病例约为136,000例，低于8月底的平均157,000例。知情人士告诉路透社，辉瑞的Covid疫苗可能会在下月底被授权用于儿童。</blockquote></p><p> Names linked to the reopening led the gains in premarket trading. Delta Air Lines and United Airlines shares gained. Carnival Corp edged higher. Traditional cyclical plays GM and Citigroup rose. MGM shares rose after an&nbsp;upgrade by Bernstein to outperform.</p><p><blockquote>与重新开放相关的名字领涨盘前交易。达美航空和联合航空股价上涨。嘉年华公司小幅走高。传统周期性股票通用汽车和花旗集团上涨。伯恩斯坦将米高梅股价上调至跑赢大盘后上涨。</blockquote></p><p> \"Vaccinations plus immunity should mean cases eventually fall. Full reopening and related spending has been pushed out,\" wrote UBS strategist Keith Parker, who sees the S&amp;P 500 gaining another 4% through year-end.</p><p><blockquote>瑞银策略师基思·帕克(Keith Parker)写道：“疫苗接种加上免疫力应该意味着病例最终会下降。全面重新开放和相关支出已被推迟。”他预计标普500到年底将再上涨4%。</blockquote></p><p> Traditional cyclical plays GM and Citigroup rose Monday. MGM shares rose after an&nbsp;upgrade by Bernstein to outperform.</p><p><blockquote>传统周期性股票通用汽车和花旗集团周一上涨。伯恩斯坦将米高梅股价上调至跑赢大盘后上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Tech shares gained as well. Apple moved higher ahead of a&nbsp;launch event Tuesday&nbsp;where the company is expected to introduce new iPhones.</p><p><blockquote>科技股也上涨。苹果在周二的发布会之前股价走高，预计该公司将在会上推出新款iPhone。</blockquote></p><p> Nike shares ticked lower after&nbsp;BTIG downgraded the stock&nbsp;citing supply chain challenges caused by the pandemic. Production issues could significantly impact Nike’s holiday sales, BTIG said.</p><p><blockquote>BTIG以疫情造成的供应链挑战为由下调耐克股票评级后，耐克股价小幅走低。BTIG表示，生产问题可能会严重影响耐克的假日销售。</blockquote></p><p> “Supply bottlenecks, inventory shortages, higher commodity prices, and higher shipping rates have all contributed to higher input costs,” noted Charlie Ripley, senior investment strategist for Allianz Investment Management.</p><p><blockquote>安联投资管理公司高级投资策略师查理·里普利指出：“供应瓶颈、库存短缺、大宗商品价格上涨和运费上涨都导致了投入成本上升。”</blockquote></p><p> Inflation fears have contributed to the market’s recent losses. Data released Friday showed that&nbsp;producer prices rose&nbsp;0.7% in August and 8.3% year over year, which was the biggest annual increase since records were first kept in November 2010.</p><p><blockquote>通胀担忧导致了市场近期的下跌。周五公布的数据显示，8月份生产者价格上涨0.7%，同比上涨8.3%，这是自2010年11月有记录以来的最大年度涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> ″[Friday’s] data on wholesale prices should be eye-opening for the Fed, as inflation pressures still don’t appear to be easing and will likely continue to be felt by the consumer in the coming months,” Ripley said.</p><p><blockquote>里普利表示：“[周五的]批发价格数据应该会让美联储大开眼界，因为通胀压力似乎仍未缓解，并且消费者可能会在未来几个月继续感受到通胀压力。”</blockquote></p><p> The closely watched consumer price index will be released on Tuesday, at which point the Street will see how much of the heightened costs are being passed along to consumers. Economists surveyed by FactSet are expecting the reading to show that consumer prices jumped&nbsp;5.3% on an annual pacein August. Retail sales data will be released later in the week.</p><p><blockquote>备受关注的消费者价格指数将于周二发布，届时华尔街将看到有多少上涨的成本被转嫁给了消费者。FactSet调查的经济学家预计，8月份消费者价格同比上涨5.零售销售数据将于本周晚些时候公布。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks have been under pressure since&nbsp;August’s jobs report, released by the Labor Department on September 3, missed expectations. Worries are rippling through the market that the pandemic will continue to hamper economic growth while hot inflation will prompt the Federal Reserve to take action.</p><p><blockquote>自美国劳工部9月3日发布的8月份就业报告未达预期以来，股市一直承压。市场普遍担心疫情将继续阻碍经济增长，而高通胀将促使美联储采取行动。</blockquote></p><p> “The negative impact of the delta variant on the cyclical trade is clear,” noted strategists at Jefferies. “It is increasingly evident that the impact of delta has delayed any Federal Reserve attempt at tapering, just as it has given fresh momentum to the Big Tech stocks with growth outperforming value so far this quarter.”</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞策略师指出：“德尔塔变异毒株对周期性交易的负面影响是显而易见的。”“越来越明显的是，达美航空的影响推迟了美联储缩减规模的任何尝试，正如它为本季度迄今为止增长跑赢价值的大型科技股提供了新的动力一样。”</blockquote></p><p> The Fed will begin its two-day policy meeting on September 21, where investors will be looking for clues about the central bank’s bond-buying program.</p><p><blockquote>美联储将于9月21日开始为期两天的政策会议，届时投资者将寻找有关央行债券购买计划的线索。</blockquote></p><p> Despite last week’s losses, the major averages are still relatively close to their record levels. the Dow is about 2% from its all-time high, while the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are under 2% below their high-water marks.</p><p><blockquote>尽管上周有所下跌，但主要股指仍相对接近创纪录水平。道琼斯指数较历史高点下跌约2%，而标普500和纳斯达克综合指数较高点下跌不到2%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. stocks open solidly higher Monday following worst weekly decline in about 3 months<blockquote>继约三个月来最严重单周跌幅后，美国股市周一大幅高开</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. stocks open solidly higher Monday following worst weekly decline in about 3 months<blockquote>继约三个月来最严重单周跌幅后，美国股市周一大幅高开</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-13 21:33</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained Monday as U.S. stock indexes rebounded from a losing streak.</p><p><blockquote>随着美国股指从连跌中反弹，道琼斯工业平均指数周一上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow jumped about 240 points, or 0.7%. The S&amp;P 500 gained 0.7% and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.6%.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯指数上涨约240点，涨幅0.7%。标普500上涨0.7%，纳斯达克综合指数上涨0.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99d05df35cd84a09bab95f1d02ff1457\" tg-width=\"1052\" tg-height=\"446\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The bounce comes after the Dow and S&amp;P posting a fifth straight day of losses, while the Nasdaq Composite registered its third consecutive negative session. For the S&amp;P 500, that was its worst losing streak since February 22.</p><p><blockquote>此次反弹是在道琼斯指数和标准普尔指数连续第五天下跌，而纳斯达克综合指数连续第三个交易日下跌之后发生的。对于标普500来说，这是自2月22日以来最严重的连跌。</blockquote></p><p> \"With supply chain disruptions, COVID-19 variant risk, stickier than expected inflation along with other uncertainties that challenge the present recovery's path toward a sustainable economic expansion the age old adage 'progress not perfection' among current developments appears best suited for investors to focus on for now,\" Oppenheimer's John Stoltzfus said in a note Monday.</p><p><blockquote>“由于供应链中断、COVID-19变种风险、通胀粘性强于预期以及其他挑战当前复苏通往可持续经济扩张之路的不确定性，当前发展中的古老格言‘进步而非完美’似乎最适合投资者关注目前，”奥本海默的约翰·斯托尔茨福斯周一在一份报告中表示。</blockquote></p><p> Covid cases appear to be trending lower in the U.S. with a 7-day average through Friday of about 136,000, down from 157,000 average new cases at the end of August, according to the CDC. Pfizer's Covid vaccine could be&nbsp;authorized for children by the end of next month, sources familiar told Reuters.</p><p><blockquote>根据CDC的数据，美国的Covid病例似乎呈下降趋势，截至周五的7天平均新增病例约为136,000例，低于8月底的平均157,000例。知情人士告诉路透社，辉瑞的Covid疫苗可能会在下月底被授权用于儿童。</blockquote></p><p> Names linked to the reopening led the gains in premarket trading. Delta Air Lines and United Airlines shares gained. Carnival Corp edged higher. Traditional cyclical plays GM and Citigroup rose. MGM shares rose after an&nbsp;upgrade by Bernstein to outperform.</p><p><blockquote>与重新开放相关的名字领涨盘前交易。达美航空和联合航空股价上涨。嘉年华公司小幅走高。传统周期性股票通用汽车和花旗集团上涨。伯恩斯坦将米高梅股价上调至跑赢大盘后上涨。</blockquote></p><p> \"Vaccinations plus immunity should mean cases eventually fall. Full reopening and related spending has been pushed out,\" wrote UBS strategist Keith Parker, who sees the S&amp;P 500 gaining another 4% through year-end.</p><p><blockquote>瑞银策略师基思·帕克(Keith Parker)写道：“疫苗接种加上免疫力应该意味着病例最终会下降。全面重新开放和相关支出已被推迟。”他预计标普500到年底将再上涨4%。</blockquote></p><p> Traditional cyclical plays GM and Citigroup rose Monday. MGM shares rose after an&nbsp;upgrade by Bernstein to outperform.</p><p><blockquote>传统周期性股票通用汽车和花旗集团周一上涨。伯恩斯坦将米高梅股价上调至跑赢大盘后上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Tech shares gained as well. Apple moved higher ahead of a&nbsp;launch event Tuesday&nbsp;where the company is expected to introduce new iPhones.</p><p><blockquote>科技股也上涨。苹果在周二的发布会之前股价走高，预计该公司将在会上推出新款iPhone。</blockquote></p><p> Nike shares ticked lower after&nbsp;BTIG downgraded the stock&nbsp;citing supply chain challenges caused by the pandemic. Production issues could significantly impact Nike’s holiday sales, BTIG said.</p><p><blockquote>BTIG以疫情造成的供应链挑战为由下调耐克股票评级后，耐克股价小幅走低。BTIG表示，生产问题可能会严重影响耐克的假日销售。</blockquote></p><p> “Supply bottlenecks, inventory shortages, higher commodity prices, and higher shipping rates have all contributed to higher input costs,” noted Charlie Ripley, senior investment strategist for Allianz Investment Management.</p><p><blockquote>安联投资管理公司高级投资策略师查理·里普利指出：“供应瓶颈、库存短缺、大宗商品价格上涨和运费上涨都导致了投入成本上升。”</blockquote></p><p> Inflation fears have contributed to the market’s recent losses. Data released Friday showed that&nbsp;producer prices rose&nbsp;0.7% in August and 8.3% year over year, which was the biggest annual increase since records were first kept in November 2010.</p><p><blockquote>通胀担忧导致了市场近期的下跌。周五公布的数据显示，8月份生产者价格上涨0.7%，同比上涨8.3%，这是自2010年11月有记录以来的最大年度涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> ″[Friday’s] data on wholesale prices should be eye-opening for the Fed, as inflation pressures still don’t appear to be easing and will likely continue to be felt by the consumer in the coming months,” Ripley said.</p><p><blockquote>里普利表示：“[周五的]批发价格数据应该会让美联储大开眼界，因为通胀压力似乎仍未缓解，并且消费者可能会在未来几个月继续感受到通胀压力。”</blockquote></p><p> The closely watched consumer price index will be released on Tuesday, at which point the Street will see how much of the heightened costs are being passed along to consumers. Economists surveyed by FactSet are expecting the reading to show that consumer prices jumped&nbsp;5.3% on an annual pacein August. Retail sales data will be released later in the week.</p><p><blockquote>备受关注的消费者价格指数将于周二发布，届时华尔街将看到有多少上涨的成本被转嫁给了消费者。FactSet调查的经济学家预计，8月份消费者价格同比上涨5.零售销售数据将于本周晚些时候公布。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks have been under pressure since&nbsp;August’s jobs report, released by the Labor Department on September 3, missed expectations. Worries are rippling through the market that the pandemic will continue to hamper economic growth while hot inflation will prompt the Federal Reserve to take action.</p><p><blockquote>自美国劳工部9月3日发布的8月份就业报告未达预期以来，股市一直承压。市场普遍担心疫情将继续阻碍经济增长，而高通胀将促使美联储采取行动。</blockquote></p><p> “The negative impact of the delta variant on the cyclical trade is clear,” noted strategists at Jefferies. “It is increasingly evident that the impact of delta has delayed any Federal Reserve attempt at tapering, just as it has given fresh momentum to the Big Tech stocks with growth outperforming value so far this quarter.”</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞策略师指出：“德尔塔变异毒株对周期性交易的负面影响是显而易见的。”“越来越明显的是，达美航空的影响推迟了美联储缩减规模的任何尝试，正如它为本季度迄今为止增长跑赢价值的大型科技股提供了新的动力一样。”</blockquote></p><p> The Fed will begin its two-day policy meeting on September 21, where investors will be looking for clues about the central bank’s bond-buying program.</p><p><blockquote>美联储将于9月21日开始为期两天的政策会议，届时投资者将寻找有关央行债券购买计划的线索。</blockquote></p><p> Despite last week’s losses, the major averages are still relatively close to their record levels. the Dow is about 2% from its all-time high, while the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are under 2% below their high-water marks.</p><p><blockquote>尽管上周有所下跌，但主要股指仍相对接近创纪录水平。道琼斯指数较历史高点下跌约2%，而标普500和纳斯达克综合指数较高点下跌不到2%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112189353","content_text":"The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained Monday as U.S. stock indexes rebounded from a losing streak.\nThe Dow jumped about 240 points, or 0.7%. The S&P 500 gained 0.7% and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.6%.\n\nThe bounce comes after the Dow and S&P posting a fifth straight day of losses, while the Nasdaq Composite registered its third consecutive negative session. For the S&P 500, that was its worst losing streak since February 22.\n\"With supply chain disruptions, COVID-19 variant risk, stickier than expected inflation along with other uncertainties that challenge the present recovery's path toward a sustainable economic expansion the age old adage 'progress not perfection' among current developments appears best suited for investors to focus on for now,\" Oppenheimer's John Stoltzfus said in a note Monday.\nCovid cases appear to be trending lower in the U.S. with a 7-day average through Friday of about 136,000, down from 157,000 average new cases at the end of August, according to the CDC. Pfizer's Covid vaccine could be authorized for children by the end of next month, sources familiar told Reuters.\nNames linked to the reopening led the gains in premarket trading. Delta Air Lines and United Airlines shares gained. Carnival Corp edged higher. Traditional cyclical plays GM and Citigroup rose. MGM shares rose after an upgrade by Bernstein to outperform.\n\"Vaccinations plus immunity should mean cases eventually fall. Full reopening and related spending has been pushed out,\" wrote UBS strategist Keith Parker, who sees the S&P 500 gaining another 4% through year-end.\nTraditional cyclical plays GM and Citigroup rose Monday. MGM shares rose after an upgrade by Bernstein to outperform.\nTech shares gained as well. Apple moved higher ahead of a launch event Tuesday where the company is expected to introduce new iPhones.\nNike shares ticked lower after BTIG downgraded the stock citing supply chain challenges caused by the pandemic. Production issues could significantly impact Nike’s holiday sales, BTIG said.\n“Supply bottlenecks, inventory shortages, higher commodity prices, and higher shipping rates have all contributed to higher input costs,” noted Charlie Ripley, senior investment strategist for Allianz Investment Management.\nInflation fears have contributed to the market’s recent losses. Data released Friday showed that producer prices rose 0.7% in August and 8.3% year over year, which was the biggest annual increase since records were first kept in November 2010.\n″[Friday’s] data on wholesale prices should be eye-opening for the Fed, as inflation pressures still don’t appear to be easing and will likely continue to be felt by the consumer in the coming months,” Ripley said.\nThe closely watched consumer price index will be released on Tuesday, at which point the Street will see how much of the heightened costs are being passed along to consumers. Economists surveyed by FactSet are expecting the reading to show that consumer prices jumped 5.3% on an annual pacein August. Retail sales data will be released later in the week.\nStocks have been under pressure since August’s jobs report, released by the Labor Department on September 3, missed expectations. Worries are rippling through the market that the pandemic will continue to hamper economic growth while hot inflation will prompt the Federal Reserve to take action.\n“The negative impact of the delta variant on the cyclical trade is clear,” noted strategists at Jefferies. “It is increasingly evident that the impact of delta has delayed any Federal Reserve attempt at tapering, just as it has given fresh momentum to the Big Tech stocks with growth outperforming value so far this quarter.”\nThe Fed will begin its two-day policy meeting on September 21, where investors will be looking for clues about the central bank’s bond-buying program.\nDespite last week’s losses, the major averages are still relatively close to their record levels. the Dow is about 2% from its all-time high, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are under 2% below their high-water marks.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1389,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":881213312,"gmtCreate":1631342472536,"gmtModify":1631890287357,"author":{"id":"3579326417741698","authorId":"3579326417741698","name":"小霖妹子","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579326417741698","authorIdStr":"3579326417741698"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like","listText":"Pls like","text":"Pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/881213312","repostId":"2166372458","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1500,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":881213907,"gmtCreate":1631342460209,"gmtModify":1631890287370,"author":{"id":"3579326417741698","authorId":"3579326417741698","name":"小霖妹子","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579326417741698","authorIdStr":"3579326417741698"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like","listText":"Pls like","text":"Pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/881213907","repostId":"1147045390","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147045390","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631321547,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1147045390?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-11 08:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Apple’s Risk Is Limited<blockquote>为什么苹果的风险有限</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147045390","media":"Barrons","summary":"Apple faces real, but limited, risk to its revenue and profits from Friday’s ruling that requires it to allow developers to offer alternative payment methods for purchases made in apps downloaded through the Apple app store.In a case filed by Fortnite publisher Epic Games, U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers issued a permanent injunction that requires Apple  to allow developers the option to include links to alternative payment methods in their apps. Apple’s own payment system takes a 30%","content":"<p>Apple faces real, but limited, risk to its revenue and profits from Friday’s ruling that requires it to allow developers to offer alternative payment methods for purchases made in apps downloaded through the Apple app store.</p><p><blockquote>周五的裁决要求苹果允许开发者为通过苹果应用商店下载的应用程序中的购买提供替代支付方式，这给其收入和利润带来了真实但有限的风险。</blockquote></p><p> In a case filed by Fortnite publisher Epic Games, U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers issued a permanent injunction that requires Apple (ticker: AAPL) to allow developers the option to include links to alternative payment methods in their apps. Apple’s own payment system takes a 30% cut from large developers.</p><p><blockquote>在堡垒之夜发行商Epic Games提起的案件中，美国地区法官Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers发布了一项永久禁令，要求苹果（股票代码：AAPL）允许开发者选择在其应用程序中包含替代支付方式的链接。苹果自己的支付系统从大型开发商那里收取30%的提成。</blockquote></p><p> Data from the app tracker SensorTower shows that in calendar 2020, Apple had overall revenue from the App Store of $72.3 billion, generating an estimated $21.7 billion in fees, or about 7% of Apple’s overall revenues. That includes $21 billion in spending in the U.S., generating about $6.3 billion in fees, or about 2% of annualized revenues.</p><p><blockquote>应用追踪器SensorTower的数据显示，2020年，苹果从App Store获得的总收入为723亿美元，产生的费用估计为217亿美元，约占苹果总收入的7%。其中包括在美国的210亿美元支出，产生约63亿美元的费用，约占年收入的2%。</blockquote></p><p> SensorTower estimates that mobile-game spending in the App Store in calendar 2020 was $47.6 billion, generating $14.3 billion in fees, or a little under 5% of Apple’s total revenues.</p><p><blockquote>SensorTower估计，2020年App Store中的手机游戏支出为476亿美元，产生143亿美元的费用，略低于苹果总收入的5%。</blockquote></p><p> Gene Munster, managing director of the venture firm Loup Capital and a former sell-side analyst with a long history of tracking Apple, estimated that the App Store accounts for about 14% of the company’s profits. But he sees limited risk from Friday’s ruling.</p><p><blockquote>风险投资公司Loup Capital董事总经理、长期跟踪苹果的前卖方分析师吉恩·蒙斯特(Gene Munster)估计，App Store约占该公司利润的14%。但他认为周五裁决的风险有限。</blockquote></p><p> Munster thinks most app developers will stay inside of the Apple system. He sees “at most” a 2% headwind to overall revenue, and a potential 4% hit to profits.</p><p><blockquote>蒙斯特认为大多数应用程序开发人员将留在苹果系统内。他认为整体收入“最多”会受到2%的阻力，利润可能会受到4%的打击。</blockquote></p><p> “After the first year of these changes, app store growth rates will return to normal,” he said. “Bottom line, it’s at most a one-year headwind and does not change the big picture of where Apple is going over the next 5 years.”</p><p><blockquote>“在这些变化的第一年之后，app store的增长率将恢复正常，”他说。“最重要的是，这最多是一年的逆风，不会改变苹果未来5年的发展方向。”</blockquote></p><p> Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani said in a research note that the ruling is a setback for Apple, but that the eventual impact is likely to be manageable, given Apple has alternative ways to generate revenue from the store, including its growing in-store ad business. And he noted that Apple actually got a win on a bigger issue in the case: The judge rejected Epic’s assertion that the App Store is an illegal monopoly. Daryanani estimated the risk to Apple’s per-share earnings at 2% to 4%.</p><p><blockquote>Evercore ISI分析师Amit Daryanani在一份研究报告中表示，这一裁决对苹果来说是一次挫折，但鉴于苹果有其他方式从商店创收，包括其不断增长的店内广告业务，最终的影响可能是可控的。他指出，苹果实际上在该案中的一个更大问题上取得了胜利：法官驳回了Epic关于App Store是非法垄断的主张。Daryanani估计苹果每股收益面临的风险为2%至4%。</blockquote></p><p> Wedbush analyst Dan Ives told&nbsp;<i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;he thinks the worst-case scenario is a 3% to 4% hit to revenues, describing the risk as a “rounding error.” While Ives said the Street had expected an across-the-board win for Apple, the mixed decision removes an overhang on the stock and that investors are likely relieved to put the issue to rest.</p><p><blockquote>Wedbush分析师Dan Ives告诉<i>巴伦周刊</i>他认为最坏的情况是收入受到3%至4%的打击，并将这种风险描述为“舍入误差”。虽然Ives表示，华尔街原本预计苹果会全面获胜，但这一喜忧参半的决定消除了该股的悬念，投资者可能会因为解决这个问题而松一口气。</blockquote></p><p> The ruling is more a positive for companies like&nbsp;Spotify Technology&nbsp;and&nbsp;Match Group&nbsp;than it is a negative for Apple, he said. Apple stock fell 3.3% to $148.97&nbsp;on&nbsp;Friday, while Spotify and March gained 0.7% and&nbsp;4.2%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，这一裁决对Spotify Technology和Match Group等公司来说更多的是积极的，而不是对苹果的负面影响。苹果股价周五下跌3.3%，至148.97美元，Spotify和March分别上涨0.7%和4.</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Apple’s Risk Is Limited<blockquote>为什么苹果的风险有限</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Apple’s Risk Is Limited<blockquote>为什么苹果的风险有限</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-11 08:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple faces real, but limited, risk to its revenue and profits from Friday’s ruling that requires it to allow developers to offer alternative payment methods for purchases made in apps downloaded through the Apple app store.</p><p><blockquote>周五的裁决要求苹果允许开发者为通过苹果应用商店下载的应用程序中的购买提供替代支付方式，这给其收入和利润带来了真实但有限的风险。</blockquote></p><p> In a case filed by Fortnite publisher Epic Games, U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers issued a permanent injunction that requires Apple (ticker: AAPL) to allow developers the option to include links to alternative payment methods in their apps. Apple’s own payment system takes a 30% cut from large developers.</p><p><blockquote>在堡垒之夜发行商Epic Games提起的案件中，美国地区法官Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers发布了一项永久禁令，要求苹果（股票代码：AAPL）允许开发者选择在其应用程序中包含替代支付方式的链接。苹果自己的支付系统从大型开发商那里收取30%的提成。</blockquote></p><p> Data from the app tracker SensorTower shows that in calendar 2020, Apple had overall revenue from the App Store of $72.3 billion, generating an estimated $21.7 billion in fees, or about 7% of Apple’s overall revenues. That includes $21 billion in spending in the U.S., generating about $6.3 billion in fees, or about 2% of annualized revenues.</p><p><blockquote>应用追踪器SensorTower的数据显示，2020年，苹果从App Store获得的总收入为723亿美元，产生的费用估计为217亿美元，约占苹果总收入的7%。其中包括在美国的210亿美元支出，产生约63亿美元的费用，约占年收入的2%。</blockquote></p><p> SensorTower estimates that mobile-game spending in the App Store in calendar 2020 was $47.6 billion, generating $14.3 billion in fees, or a little under 5% of Apple’s total revenues.</p><p><blockquote>SensorTower估计，2020年App Store中的手机游戏支出为476亿美元，产生143亿美元的费用，略低于苹果总收入的5%。</blockquote></p><p> Gene Munster, managing director of the venture firm Loup Capital and a former sell-side analyst with a long history of tracking Apple, estimated that the App Store accounts for about 14% of the company’s profits. But he sees limited risk from Friday’s ruling.</p><p><blockquote>风险投资公司Loup Capital董事总经理、长期跟踪苹果的前卖方分析师吉恩·蒙斯特(Gene Munster)估计，App Store约占该公司利润的14%。但他认为周五裁决的风险有限。</blockquote></p><p> Munster thinks most app developers will stay inside of the Apple system. He sees “at most” a 2% headwind to overall revenue, and a potential 4% hit to profits.</p><p><blockquote>蒙斯特认为大多数应用程序开发人员将留在苹果系统内。他认为整体收入“最多”会受到2%的阻力，利润可能会受到4%的打击。</blockquote></p><p> “After the first year of these changes, app store growth rates will return to normal,” he said. “Bottom line, it’s at most a one-year headwind and does not change the big picture of where Apple is going over the next 5 years.”</p><p><blockquote>“在这些变化的第一年之后，app store的增长率将恢复正常，”他说。“最重要的是，这最多是一年的逆风，不会改变苹果未来5年的发展方向。”</blockquote></p><p> Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani said in a research note that the ruling is a setback for Apple, but that the eventual impact is likely to be manageable, given Apple has alternative ways to generate revenue from the store, including its growing in-store ad business. And he noted that Apple actually got a win on a bigger issue in the case: The judge rejected Epic’s assertion that the App Store is an illegal monopoly. Daryanani estimated the risk to Apple’s per-share earnings at 2% to 4%.</p><p><blockquote>Evercore ISI分析师Amit Daryanani在一份研究报告中表示，这一裁决对苹果来说是一次挫折，但鉴于苹果有其他方式从商店创收，包括其不断增长的店内广告业务，最终的影响可能是可控的。他指出，苹果实际上在该案中的一个更大问题上取得了胜利：法官驳回了Epic关于App Store是非法垄断的主张。Daryanani估计苹果每股收益面临的风险为2%至4%。</blockquote></p><p> Wedbush analyst Dan Ives told&nbsp;<i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;he thinks the worst-case scenario is a 3% to 4% hit to revenues, describing the risk as a “rounding error.” While Ives said the Street had expected an across-the-board win for Apple, the mixed decision removes an overhang on the stock and that investors are likely relieved to put the issue to rest.</p><p><blockquote>Wedbush分析师Dan Ives告诉<i>巴伦周刊</i>他认为最坏的情况是收入受到3%至4%的打击，并将这种风险描述为“舍入误差”。虽然Ives表示，华尔街原本预计苹果会全面获胜，但这一喜忧参半的决定消除了该股的悬念，投资者可能会因为解决这个问题而松一口气。</blockquote></p><p> The ruling is more a positive for companies like&nbsp;Spotify Technology&nbsp;and&nbsp;Match Group&nbsp;than it is a negative for Apple, he said. Apple stock fell 3.3% to $148.97&nbsp;on&nbsp;Friday, while Spotify and March gained 0.7% and&nbsp;4.2%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，这一裁决对Spotify Technology和Match Group等公司来说更多的是积极的，而不是对苹果的负面影响。苹果股价周五下跌3.3%，至148.97美元，Spotify和March分别上涨0.7%和4.</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-app-store-epic-51631304007?mod=hp_LEAD_1_B_2\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-app-store-epic-51631304007?mod=hp_LEAD_1_B_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147045390","content_text":"Apple faces real, but limited, risk to its revenue and profits from Friday’s ruling that requires it to allow developers to offer alternative payment methods for purchases made in apps downloaded through the Apple app store.\nIn a case filed by Fortnite publisher Epic Games, U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers issued a permanent injunction that requires Apple (ticker: AAPL) to allow developers the option to include links to alternative payment methods in their apps. Apple’s own payment system takes a 30% cut from large developers.\nData from the app tracker SensorTower shows that in calendar 2020, Apple had overall revenue from the App Store of $72.3 billion, generating an estimated $21.7 billion in fees, or about 7% of Apple’s overall revenues. That includes $21 billion in spending in the U.S., generating about $6.3 billion in fees, or about 2% of annualized revenues.\nSensorTower estimates that mobile-game spending in the App Store in calendar 2020 was $47.6 billion, generating $14.3 billion in fees, or a little under 5% of Apple’s total revenues.\nGene Munster, managing director of the venture firm Loup Capital and a former sell-side analyst with a long history of tracking Apple, estimated that the App Store accounts for about 14% of the company’s profits. But he sees limited risk from Friday’s ruling.\nMunster thinks most app developers will stay inside of the Apple system. He sees “at most” a 2% headwind to overall revenue, and a potential 4% hit to profits.\n“After the first year of these changes, app store growth rates will return to normal,” he said. “Bottom line, it’s at most a one-year headwind and does not change the big picture of where Apple is going over the next 5 years.”\nEvercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani said in a research note that the ruling is a setback for Apple, but that the eventual impact is likely to be manageable, given Apple has alternative ways to generate revenue from the store, including its growing in-store ad business. And he noted that Apple actually got a win on a bigger issue in the case: The judge rejected Epic’s assertion that the App Store is an illegal monopoly. Daryanani estimated the risk to Apple’s per-share earnings at 2% to 4%.\nWedbush analyst Dan Ives told Barron’s he thinks the worst-case scenario is a 3% to 4% hit to revenues, describing the risk as a “rounding error.” While Ives said the Street had expected an across-the-board win for Apple, the mixed decision removes an overhang on the stock and that investors are likely relieved to put the issue to rest.\nThe ruling is more a positive for companies like Spotify Technology and Match Group than it is a negative for Apple, he said. Apple stock fell 3.3% to $148.97 on Friday, while Spotify and March gained 0.7% and 4.2%, respectively.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1376,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":883835887,"gmtCreate":1631232005749,"gmtModify":1631890287381,"author":{"id":"3579326417741698","authorId":"3579326417741698","name":"小霖妹子","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579326417741698","authorIdStr":"3579326417741698"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like","listText":"Pls like","text":"Pls 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pls&nbsp;","listText":"Like pls&nbsp;","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/889071982","repostId":"2165136708","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1423,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":814284981,"gmtCreate":1630825310343,"gmtModify":1631890287439,"author":{"id":"3579326417741698","authorId":"3579326417741698","name":"小霖妹子","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579326417741698","authorIdStr":"3579326417741698"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like&nbsp;","listText":"Pls like&nbsp;","text":"Pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/814284981","repostId":"2164808914","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":460,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":814284011,"gmtCreate":1630825294033,"gmtModify":1632905670391,"author":{"id":"3579326417741698","authorId":"3579326417741698","name":"小霖妹子","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579326417741698","authorIdStr":"3579326417741698"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like","listText":"Pls like","text":"Pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/814284011","repostId":"1157895022","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157895022","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630810619,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1157895022?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-05 10:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Beat the market with this quant system that’s very bullish on stocks at record highs<blockquote>利用这个非常看好历史新高股票的量化系统击败市场</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157895022","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Vance Howard’s HCM Tactical Growth Fund moves you in and out of the stock market when prudent to do ","content":"<p>  <b>Vance Howard’s HCM Tactical Growth Fund moves you in and out of the stock market when prudent to do so. So far his team of computer scientists’ strategy has paid off.</b>  Imagine you had a money-making machine to harvest gains in the stock market while you sat back to enjoy life.</p><p><blockquote><b>万斯·霍华德(Vance Howard)的HCM战术增长基金在谨慎的情况下让您进出股市。到目前为止，他的计算机科学家团队的策略已经得到了回报。</b>想象一下，当你坐下来享受生活时，你有一台赚钱机器在股市中收获收益。</blockquote></p><p> That’s everyone’s dream, right? Investor Vance Howard thinks he’s found it.</p><p><blockquote>那是每个人的梦想，对吧？投资者万斯·霍华德认为他已经找到了。</blockquote></p><p> Howard and his small army of computer programmers atHoward Capital Managementin Roswell, Ga., have a quantitative system that posts great returns.</p><p><blockquote>霍华德和他的一小队计算机程序员在佐治亚州罗斯威尔的资本管理公司工作。，有一个量化系统，张贴巨大的回报。</blockquote></p><p> His HCM Tactical Growth Fund&nbsp;HCMGX,+0.35%beats its Russell 1000&nbsp;benchmark index and large-blend fund category by 8.5-10.4 percentage points annualized over the past five years, according to Morningstar. That is no small feat, and not only because it has to overcome a 2.22% fee. Beating the market is simply not easy. His HCM Dividend Sector PlusHCMQX,-0.05%) and HCM Income PlusHCMLX,+0.30%funds post similar outperformance.</p><p><blockquote>根据晨星公司的数据，他的HCM战术增长基金HCMGX,+0.35%在过去五年中的年化增长率比罗素1000基准指数和大型混合基金类别高出8.5-10.4个百分点。这不是一个小壮举，不仅因为它必须克服2.22%的费用。战胜市场并不容易。他的HCM Dividend Sector PlusHCMQX,-0.05%)和HCM Income PlusHCMLX,+0.30%基金也表现类似。</blockquote></p><p> There are drawbacks, which I detail below. (Among them: Potentially long stretches of underperformance and regular tax bills.) But first, what can we learn from this winner?</p><p><blockquote>有缺点，我在下面详述。（其中包括：潜在的长期表现不佳和定期的税单。）但首先，我们能从这位赢家身上学到什么？</blockquote></p><p> So-called quants never share all the details of their proprietary systems, but Howard shares a lot, as you’ll see. And this Texas rancher has a lot of good advice based on “horse sense” — not surprising, given his infectious passion for the markets, and his three decades of experience as a pro.</p><p><blockquote>所谓的量化分析师从不分享他们专有系统的所有细节，但正如你将看到的，霍华德分享了很多。这位德克萨斯州牧场主有很多基于“马的感觉”的好建议——考虑到他对市场富有感染力的热情，以及他三十年的职业经验，这并不奇怪。</blockquote></p><p> Here are five lessons, 12 exchange traded funds (ETFs) and four stocks to consider, from a recent interview with him.</p><p><blockquote>以下是最近对他的采访中的五个教训、12只交易所交易基金(ETF)和四只值得考虑的股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #1: Don’t be emotional</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第一课：不要情绪化</b></blockquote></p><p> It’s no surprise so many people do poorly in the market. Evolution has programmed us to fail. For survival, we’ve learned to run from things that frightens us. And crave more of things that are pleasurable — like sweets or fats to store calories ahead of what might be a long stretch without food. But in the market, acting on the emotions of fear and greed invariably make us do the wrong thing at the wrong time. Sell at the bottom, buy at the top.</p><p><blockquote>难怪这么多人在市场上表现不佳。进化让我们注定要失败。为了生存，我们学会了逃避让我们害怕的事情。渴望更多令人愉快的东西——比如甜食或脂肪，以便在长时间没有食物之前储存卡路里。但在市场中，对恐惧和贪婪的情绪采取行动总是会让我们在错误的时间做错误的事情。底部卖出，顶部买入。</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, we’re programmed to believe being with the crowd brings safety. If you’re a zebra on the Savanna, you are more likely to get picked off by a predator if you go it alone. The problem here is being part of a crowd — and crowd psychology — dumb us down to a purely emotional level. This is why people in crowds do terrible things they would never do on their own. It doesn’t matter how smart you are. When you join a crowd, you lose a lot of IQ points. Base emotions take over.</p><p><blockquote>同样，我们被设定为相信和人群在一起会带来安全。如果你是稀树草原上的斑马，如果你单干，你更有可能被捕食者吃掉。这里的问题是，成为人群的一部分——以及人群心理——让我们变得愚蠢到纯粹的情感层面。这就是为什么人群中的人会做他们自己永远不会做的可怕的事情。你有多聪明并不重要。当你加入一个人群时，你会失去很多智商点。基本情绪占了上风。</blockquote></p><p> To do well in the market, you have to counteract these tendencies. “One of the biggest mistakes individual investors and money managers make is getting emotional,” says Howard. “Let your emotions go.”</p><p><blockquote>要想在市场上做得好，你必须抵制这些倾向。“个人投资者和基金经理犯的最大错误之一就是变得情绪化，”霍华德说。“放下你的情绪。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #2: Have a system and stick to it</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第二课：有一个系统并坚持下去</b></blockquote></p><p> To exorcise emotion, have a system. “And don’t second guess it,” says Howard. “This keeps you from letting the pandemic or Afghanistan scare you out of the market.” He calls his system the HCM-BuyLine. It is basically a momentum and trend-following system — which often works well in the markets.</p><p><blockquote>驱除情绪，要有一个系统。“不要怀疑它，”霍华德说。“这可以防止你被大流行或阿富汗吓出市场。”他评级了他的系统HCM-购买线。它基本上是一个动量和趋势跟踪系统——通常在市场上运行良好。</blockquote></p><p> The HCM-BuyLine basically works like this. First, rather than use the S&amp;P 500SPX,-0.03%or the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.21%,Howard blends several stock indices to create his own index. Then he uses a moving average that tells him whether the market is in an uptrend or downtrend.</p><p><blockquote>HCM-BuyLine基本上是这样工作的。首先，霍华德没有使用标准普尔500SPX（-0.03%）或道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA（-0.21%），而是混合了几个股票指数来创建自己的指数。然后他使用移动平均线来告诉他市场是处于上升趋势还是下降趋势。</blockquote></p><p> When the moving average drops 3.5%, he sells 35%. If it drops 6.5%, he sells another 35%. He rarely goes to 100% cash.</p><p><blockquote>当移动平均线下跌3.5%时，他卖出35%。如果下跌6.5%，他就再卖出35%。他很少100%现金。</blockquote></p><p> “If the BuyLine is positive, we will stay long no matter what,” he says. “We take all the emotion out of the equation by letting the math decide.”</p><p><blockquote>“如果买入线为正，无论如何我们都会长期持有，”他说。“我们通过让数学来决定，将所有情感从等式中剔除。”</blockquote></p><p> Right now, it’s bullish. (More on this below.)</p><p><blockquote>目前，情况看涨。（更多信息见下文。）</blockquote></p><p> Your system also has to tell you when to get back in.</p><p><blockquote>你的系统还必须告诉你什么时候回去。</blockquote></p><p> “That’s where most people screw up,” he says. “They get out of the market, and they don’t know when to get back in.” The HCM-BuyLine gives a buy signal when his custom index trades above its moving average for six consecutive sessions, and then goes on to trade above the high hit during those six days.</p><p><blockquote>“这就是大多数人搞砸的地方，”他说。“他们退出市场，不知道什么时候才能重新进入。”当他的定制指数连续六个交易日高于其移动平均线时，HCM-买入线会发出买入信号，然后继续高于这六天触及的高点。</blockquote></p><p> You don’t need a system that calls exact market tops or bottoms. Instead, the BuyLine keeps Howard out of down markets 85% of the time, and in for 85% of the good times.</p><p><blockquote>你不需要一个评级精确市场顶部或底部的系统。相反，买入线让霍华德在85%的时间里远离低迷的市场，在85%的好时光里远离。</blockquote></p><p> “If we can do that consistently, we have superior returns and a less stressful life,” he says. “Being all in during a bad tape is no fun.”</p><p><blockquote>“如果我们能够始终如一地做到这一点，我们就会获得更高的回报和更少的生活压力，”他说。“在一盘糟糕的磁带中全力以赴一点也不好玩。”</blockquote></p><p> His system is slow to get him out of the market, but quick to get him back in. Not even a 10% correction will necessarily move him out. He’s often buying those pullbacks. Getting back in fast makes sense, because recoveries off bottoms tend to happen fast.</p><p><blockquote>他的系统让他退出市场很慢，但让他回来很快。即使是10%的修正也不一定能让他出局。他经常买入那些回调。快速反弹是有意义的，因为从底部恢复往往会很快。</blockquote></p><p> “The HCM-BuyLine takes all the emotion out of the process,” says Howard.</p><p><blockquote>“HCM-BuyLine消除了整个过程中的所有情绪，”霍华德说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #3: Don’t fight the tape</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第三课：不要和磁带作对</b></blockquote></p><p> This concept is one of the core pieces of wisdom from Marty Zweig’s classic book, “Winning on Wall Street.”</p><p><blockquote>这一概念是马蒂·茨威格经典著作《在华尔街获胜》中的核心智慧之一。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “You have to stay on the right side of market,” agrees Howard. “If you try to trade long in a bad market, it is painful.”</p><p><blockquote>“你必须站在市场的正确一边，”霍华德表示同意。“如果你试图在糟糕的市场中做多，那是很痛苦的。”</blockquote></p><p> In other words, don’t try to be a hero.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，不要试图成为英雄。</blockquote></p><p> “Sometimes, not losing money is where you want to be,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>“有时候，不赔钱才是你想要的，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, don’t turn cautious just because the market hits new highs — like now. You should love new highs, because it is a sign of market strength that may likely endure.</p><p><blockquote>同样，不要仅仅因为市场创下新高就变得谨慎——就像现在这样。你应该喜欢新高，因为这是市场力量的标志，可能会持续下去。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #4: Keep it simple</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第四课：保持简单</b></blockquote></p><p> As you’ll see below, Howard doesn’t use esoteric instruments such as derivatives, swaps or index options. He doesn’t even trade foreign stocks or currencies. This is refreshing for individual investors, because we have a harder time accessing those tools.</p><p><blockquote>正如您将在下面看到的，霍华德不使用衍生品、掉期或指数期权等深奥工具。他甚至不交易外国股票或货币。这对个人投资者来说令人耳目一新，因为我们更难获得这些工具。</blockquote></p><p> “You don’t have to trade crazy stuff,” he says. “You can trade plain-vanilla ETFs and beat everybody out there.”</p><p><blockquote>“你不必交易疯狂的东西，”他说。“你可以交易普通的ETF并击败所有人。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #5: How to trade the current market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第5课：如何交易当前市场</b></blockquote></p><p> First, be long.</p><p><blockquote>首先，做长。</blockquote></p><p> “The HCM-BuyLine is very positive. We are 100% in,” says Howard. “The market is broadening out. It is getting pretty exciting. We do not see it turn around any time soon. We are buying pullbacks.”</p><p><blockquote>“HCM-购买线非常积极。我们100%参与，”霍华德说。“市场正在扩大。它变得相当令人兴奋。我们认为它不会很快好转。我们正在买入回调。”</blockquote></p><p> One bullish signal is all the cash on the sidelines. “If there is any relief in Covid, we may see a big rally. We may end up with a great fall [season].”</p><p><blockquote>一个看涨信号是所有现金都在观望。“如果新冠疫情有所缓解，我们可能会看到大幅反弹。我们可能会以一个伟大的秋季[季节]结束。”</blockquote></p><p> Howard uses momentum indicators to select stocks and ETFs, too. For sectors he favors the following.</p><p><blockquote>霍华德也使用动量指标来选择股票和ETF。对于行业，他倾向于以下几点。</blockquote></p><p> He likes health care, tradable through the iShares US HealthcareIYH,-0.04%and ProShares Ultra Health CareRXL,+0.12%ETFs. He’s turning more bullish on biotech, which he plays via the iShares Biotechnology ETFIBB,-0.11%.</p><p><blockquote>他喜欢医疗保健，可通过iShares US HealthcareIYH(-0.04%)和ProShares Ultra Health CareRXL(+0.12%)ETF进行交易。他变得更加看好生物技术，他通过iShares Biotechnology ETFIBB进行投资，-0.11%。</blockquote></p><p> He likes consumer discretionary tradable through the iShares US Consumer ServicesIYC,-0.30%,and airlines via US Global JetsJETS,-1.17%.He also likes tech exposure via the Invesco QQQ TrustQQQ,+0.31%,iShares US TechnologyIYW,+0.50%and&nbsp;iShares SemiconductorSOXX,+0.75%.</p><p><blockquote>他喜欢通过iShares US Consumer ServicesIYC(-0.30%)进行交易的非必需消费品，以及通过US Global JetsJETS(-1.17%)进行交易的航空公司。他还喜欢通过Invesco QQQ TrustQQQ(+0.31%)、iShares US TechnologyIYW(+0.50%)进行科技投资和iShares半导体SOXX，+0.75%。</blockquote></p><p> He likes small-caps via the Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index FundVBK,+0.07%.And convertible bonds via SPDR Bloomberg Barclays Convertible SecuritiesCWB,+0.64%and iShares Convertible BondICVT,+0.37%.</p><p><blockquote>他喜欢Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index FundVBK，+0.07%的小盘股。以及SPDR Bloomberg Barclays可转换证券CWB，+0.64%和iShares可转换债券ICVT，+0.37%的可转换债券。</blockquote></p><p> As for individual names, he singles out MicrosoftMSFT,-0.00%and AppleAAPL,+0.42%in tech, as well as Amazon.comAMZN,+0.43%and TeslaTSLA,+0.16%.</p><p><blockquote>至于个人名称，他特别提到了科技股中的微软MSFT(-0.00%)和苹果AAPL(+0.42%)，以及亚马逊MAMZN(+0.43%)和特斯拉TSLA(+0.16%)。</blockquote></p><p> Also consider Howard’s two ETFs: The HCM Defender 100 IndexQQH,+0.62%and HCM Defender 500 IndexLGH,+1.32%.</p><p><blockquote>另请考虑Howard的两只ETF：HCM Defender 100 IndexQQH，+0.62%和HCM Defender 500 IndexLGH，+1.32%。</blockquote></p><p> He prefers to add to holdings on 1%-3% dips.</p><p><blockquote>他更喜欢在下跌1%-3%时增持。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A few drawbacks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一些缺点</b></blockquote></p><p> His HCM Tactical Growth fund has a history of posting two-year stretches of underperformance of 1.5% to 8.8%, since it was launched in 2015. The fund then came roaring back to net the very positive five-year outperformance cited above. Investing in his system can require patience.</p><p><blockquote>他的HCM战术增长基金自2015年推出以来，曾连续两年表现不佳，涨幅为1.5%至8.8%。随后，该基金卷土重来，实现了上述非常积极的五年优异表现。投资他的系统需要耐心。</blockquote></p><p> Every manager, including Warren Buffett, can have a stretch of underperformance, says Howard.</p><p><blockquote>霍华德说，每个经理人，包括沃伦·巴菲特，都可能有一段时间表现不佳。</blockquote></p><p> “We are in the odds game,” he says. “Even in the odds game, you can have a bad hand or two thrown at you.”</p><p><blockquote>“我们正处于赔率游戏中，”他说。“即使在赔率游戏中，你也可能会遇到一两手糟糕的牌。”</blockquote></p><p> Another challenge is the high turnover, which is 140% a year for Tactical Growth. This means Uncle Sam takes a big cut in the good years. So if you buy Howard’s funds, you may want to do so in a tax-protected account.</p><p><blockquote>另一个挑战是高流动率，战术增长每年140%。这意味着山姆大叔在好年景中会得到很大的提成。因此，如果您购买霍华德的基金，您可能希望在避税账户中购买。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Beat the market with this quant system that’s very bullish on stocks at record highs<blockquote>利用这个非常看好历史新高股票的量化系统击败市场</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBeat the market with this quant system that’s very bullish on stocks at record highs<blockquote>利用这个非常看好历史新高股票的量化系统击败市场</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-05 10:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>Vance Howard’s HCM Tactical Growth Fund moves you in and out of the stock market when prudent to do so. So far his team of computer scientists’ strategy has paid off.</b>  Imagine you had a money-making machine to harvest gains in the stock market while you sat back to enjoy life.</p><p><blockquote><b>万斯·霍华德(Vance Howard)的HCM战术增长基金在谨慎的情况下让您进出股市。到目前为止，他的计算机科学家团队的策略已经得到了回报。</b>想象一下，当你坐下来享受生活时，你有一台赚钱机器在股市中收获收益。</blockquote></p><p> That’s everyone’s dream, right? Investor Vance Howard thinks he’s found it.</p><p><blockquote>那是每个人的梦想，对吧？投资者万斯·霍华德认为他已经找到了。</blockquote></p><p> Howard and his small army of computer programmers atHoward Capital Managementin Roswell, Ga., have a quantitative system that posts great returns.</p><p><blockquote>霍华德和他的一小队计算机程序员在佐治亚州罗斯威尔的资本管理公司工作。，有一个量化系统，张贴巨大的回报。</blockquote></p><p> His HCM Tactical Growth Fund&nbsp;HCMGX,+0.35%beats its Russell 1000&nbsp;benchmark index and large-blend fund category by 8.5-10.4 percentage points annualized over the past five years, according to Morningstar. That is no small feat, and not only because it has to overcome a 2.22% fee. Beating the market is simply not easy. His HCM Dividend Sector PlusHCMQX,-0.05%) and HCM Income PlusHCMLX,+0.30%funds post similar outperformance.</p><p><blockquote>根据晨星公司的数据，他的HCM战术增长基金HCMGX,+0.35%在过去五年中的年化增长率比罗素1000基准指数和大型混合基金类别高出8.5-10.4个百分点。这不是一个小壮举，不仅因为它必须克服2.22%的费用。战胜市场并不容易。他的HCM Dividend Sector PlusHCMQX,-0.05%)和HCM Income PlusHCMLX,+0.30%基金也表现类似。</blockquote></p><p> There are drawbacks, which I detail below. (Among them: Potentially long stretches of underperformance and regular tax bills.) But first, what can we learn from this winner?</p><p><blockquote>有缺点，我在下面详述。（其中包括：潜在的长期表现不佳和定期的税单。）但首先，我们能从这位赢家身上学到什么？</blockquote></p><p> So-called quants never share all the details of their proprietary systems, but Howard shares a lot, as you’ll see. And this Texas rancher has a lot of good advice based on “horse sense” — not surprising, given his infectious passion for the markets, and his three decades of experience as a pro.</p><p><blockquote>所谓的量化分析师从不分享他们专有系统的所有细节，但正如你将看到的，霍华德分享了很多。这位德克萨斯州牧场主有很多基于“马的感觉”的好建议——考虑到他对市场富有感染力的热情，以及他三十年的职业经验，这并不奇怪。</blockquote></p><p> Here are five lessons, 12 exchange traded funds (ETFs) and four stocks to consider, from a recent interview with him.</p><p><blockquote>以下是最近对他的采访中的五个教训、12只交易所交易基金(ETF)和四只值得考虑的股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #1: Don’t be emotional</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第一课：不要情绪化</b></blockquote></p><p> It’s no surprise so many people do poorly in the market. Evolution has programmed us to fail. For survival, we’ve learned to run from things that frightens us. And crave more of things that are pleasurable — like sweets or fats to store calories ahead of what might be a long stretch without food. But in the market, acting on the emotions of fear and greed invariably make us do the wrong thing at the wrong time. Sell at the bottom, buy at the top.</p><p><blockquote>难怪这么多人在市场上表现不佳。进化让我们注定要失败。为了生存，我们学会了逃避让我们害怕的事情。渴望更多令人愉快的东西——比如甜食或脂肪，以便在长时间没有食物之前储存卡路里。但在市场中，对恐惧和贪婪的情绪采取行动总是会让我们在错误的时间做错误的事情。底部卖出，顶部买入。</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, we’re programmed to believe being with the crowd brings safety. If you’re a zebra on the Savanna, you are more likely to get picked off by a predator if you go it alone. The problem here is being part of a crowd — and crowd psychology — dumb us down to a purely emotional level. This is why people in crowds do terrible things they would never do on their own. It doesn’t matter how smart you are. When you join a crowd, you lose a lot of IQ points. Base emotions take over.</p><p><blockquote>同样，我们被设定为相信和人群在一起会带来安全。如果你是稀树草原上的斑马，如果你单干，你更有可能被捕食者吃掉。这里的问题是，成为人群的一部分——以及人群心理——让我们变得愚蠢到纯粹的情感层面。这就是为什么人群中的人会做他们自己永远不会做的可怕的事情。你有多聪明并不重要。当你加入一个人群时，你会失去很多智商点。基本情绪占了上风。</blockquote></p><p> To do well in the market, you have to counteract these tendencies. “One of the biggest mistakes individual investors and money managers make is getting emotional,” says Howard. “Let your emotions go.”</p><p><blockquote>要想在市场上做得好，你必须抵制这些倾向。“个人投资者和基金经理犯的最大错误之一就是变得情绪化，”霍华德说。“放下你的情绪。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #2: Have a system and stick to it</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第二课：有一个系统并坚持下去</b></blockquote></p><p> To exorcise emotion, have a system. “And don’t second guess it,” says Howard. “This keeps you from letting the pandemic or Afghanistan scare you out of the market.” He calls his system the HCM-BuyLine. It is basically a momentum and trend-following system — which often works well in the markets.</p><p><blockquote>驱除情绪，要有一个系统。“不要怀疑它，”霍华德说。“这可以防止你被大流行或阿富汗吓出市场。”他评级了他的系统HCM-购买线。它基本上是一个动量和趋势跟踪系统——通常在市场上运行良好。</blockquote></p><p> The HCM-BuyLine basically works like this. First, rather than use the S&amp;P 500SPX,-0.03%or the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.21%,Howard blends several stock indices to create his own index. Then he uses a moving average that tells him whether the market is in an uptrend or downtrend.</p><p><blockquote>HCM-BuyLine基本上是这样工作的。首先，霍华德没有使用标准普尔500SPX（-0.03%）或道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA（-0.21%），而是混合了几个股票指数来创建自己的指数。然后他使用移动平均线来告诉他市场是处于上升趋势还是下降趋势。</blockquote></p><p> When the moving average drops 3.5%, he sells 35%. If it drops 6.5%, he sells another 35%. He rarely goes to 100% cash.</p><p><blockquote>当移动平均线下跌3.5%时，他卖出35%。如果下跌6.5%，他就再卖出35%。他很少100%现金。</blockquote></p><p> “If the BuyLine is positive, we will stay long no matter what,” he says. “We take all the emotion out of the equation by letting the math decide.”</p><p><blockquote>“如果买入线为正，无论如何我们都会长期持有，”他说。“我们通过让数学来决定，将所有情感从等式中剔除。”</blockquote></p><p> Right now, it’s bullish. (More on this below.)</p><p><blockquote>目前，情况看涨。（更多信息见下文。）</blockquote></p><p> Your system also has to tell you when to get back in.</p><p><blockquote>你的系统还必须告诉你什么时候回去。</blockquote></p><p> “That’s where most people screw up,” he says. “They get out of the market, and they don’t know when to get back in.” The HCM-BuyLine gives a buy signal when his custom index trades above its moving average for six consecutive sessions, and then goes on to trade above the high hit during those six days.</p><p><blockquote>“这就是大多数人搞砸的地方，”他说。“他们退出市场，不知道什么时候才能重新进入。”当他的定制指数连续六个交易日高于其移动平均线时，HCM-买入线会发出买入信号，然后继续高于这六天触及的高点。</blockquote></p><p> You don’t need a system that calls exact market tops or bottoms. Instead, the BuyLine keeps Howard out of down markets 85% of the time, and in for 85% of the good times.</p><p><blockquote>你不需要一个评级精确市场顶部或底部的系统。相反，买入线让霍华德在85%的时间里远离低迷的市场，在85%的好时光里远离。</blockquote></p><p> “If we can do that consistently, we have superior returns and a less stressful life,” he says. “Being all in during a bad tape is no fun.”</p><p><blockquote>“如果我们能够始终如一地做到这一点，我们就会获得更高的回报和更少的生活压力，”他说。“在一盘糟糕的磁带中全力以赴一点也不好玩。”</blockquote></p><p> His system is slow to get him out of the market, but quick to get him back in. Not even a 10% correction will necessarily move him out. He’s often buying those pullbacks. Getting back in fast makes sense, because recoveries off bottoms tend to happen fast.</p><p><blockquote>他的系统让他退出市场很慢，但让他回来很快。即使是10%的修正也不一定能让他出局。他经常买入那些回调。快速反弹是有意义的，因为从底部恢复往往会很快。</blockquote></p><p> “The HCM-BuyLine takes all the emotion out of the process,” says Howard.</p><p><blockquote>“HCM-BuyLine消除了整个过程中的所有情绪，”霍华德说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #3: Don’t fight the tape</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第三课：不要和磁带作对</b></blockquote></p><p> This concept is one of the core pieces of wisdom from Marty Zweig’s classic book, “Winning on Wall Street.”</p><p><blockquote>这一概念是马蒂·茨威格经典著作《在华尔街获胜》中的核心智慧之一。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “You have to stay on the right side of market,” agrees Howard. “If you try to trade long in a bad market, it is painful.”</p><p><blockquote>“你必须站在市场的正确一边，”霍华德表示同意。“如果你试图在糟糕的市场中做多，那是很痛苦的。”</blockquote></p><p> In other words, don’t try to be a hero.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，不要试图成为英雄。</blockquote></p><p> “Sometimes, not losing money is where you want to be,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>“有时候，不赔钱才是你想要的，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, don’t turn cautious just because the market hits new highs — like now. You should love new highs, because it is a sign of market strength that may likely endure.</p><p><blockquote>同样，不要仅仅因为市场创下新高就变得谨慎——就像现在这样。你应该喜欢新高，因为这是市场力量的标志，可能会持续下去。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #4: Keep it simple</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第四课：保持简单</b></blockquote></p><p> As you’ll see below, Howard doesn’t use esoteric instruments such as derivatives, swaps or index options. He doesn’t even trade foreign stocks or currencies. This is refreshing for individual investors, because we have a harder time accessing those tools.</p><p><blockquote>正如您将在下面看到的，霍华德不使用衍生品、掉期或指数期权等深奥工具。他甚至不交易外国股票或货币。这对个人投资者来说令人耳目一新，因为我们更难获得这些工具。</blockquote></p><p> “You don’t have to trade crazy stuff,” he says. “You can trade plain-vanilla ETFs and beat everybody out there.”</p><p><blockquote>“你不必交易疯狂的东西，”他说。“你可以交易普通的ETF并击败所有人。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #5: How to trade the current market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第5课：如何交易当前市场</b></blockquote></p><p> First, be long.</p><p><blockquote>首先，做长。</blockquote></p><p> “The HCM-BuyLine is very positive. We are 100% in,” says Howard. “The market is broadening out. It is getting pretty exciting. We do not see it turn around any time soon. We are buying pullbacks.”</p><p><blockquote>“HCM-购买线非常积极。我们100%参与，”霍华德说。“市场正在扩大。它变得相当令人兴奋。我们认为它不会很快好转。我们正在买入回调。”</blockquote></p><p> One bullish signal is all the cash on the sidelines. “If there is any relief in Covid, we may see a big rally. We may end up with a great fall [season].”</p><p><blockquote>一个看涨信号是所有现金都在观望。“如果新冠疫情有所缓解，我们可能会看到大幅反弹。我们可能会以一个伟大的秋季[季节]结束。”</blockquote></p><p> Howard uses momentum indicators to select stocks and ETFs, too. For sectors he favors the following.</p><p><blockquote>霍华德也使用动量指标来选择股票和ETF。对于行业，他倾向于以下几点。</blockquote></p><p> He likes health care, tradable through the iShares US HealthcareIYH,-0.04%and ProShares Ultra Health CareRXL,+0.12%ETFs. He’s turning more bullish on biotech, which he plays via the iShares Biotechnology ETFIBB,-0.11%.</p><p><blockquote>他喜欢医疗保健，可通过iShares US HealthcareIYH(-0.04%)和ProShares Ultra Health CareRXL(+0.12%)ETF进行交易。他变得更加看好生物技术，他通过iShares Biotechnology ETFIBB进行投资，-0.11%。</blockquote></p><p> He likes consumer discretionary tradable through the iShares US Consumer ServicesIYC,-0.30%,and airlines via US Global JetsJETS,-1.17%.He also likes tech exposure via the Invesco QQQ TrustQQQ,+0.31%,iShares US TechnologyIYW,+0.50%and&nbsp;iShares SemiconductorSOXX,+0.75%.</p><p><blockquote>他喜欢通过iShares US Consumer ServicesIYC(-0.30%)进行交易的非必需消费品，以及通过US Global JetsJETS(-1.17%)进行交易的航空公司。他还喜欢通过Invesco QQQ TrustQQQ(+0.31%)、iShares US TechnologyIYW(+0.50%)进行科技投资和iShares半导体SOXX，+0.75%。</blockquote></p><p> He likes small-caps via the Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index FundVBK,+0.07%.And convertible bonds via SPDR Bloomberg Barclays Convertible SecuritiesCWB,+0.64%and iShares Convertible BondICVT,+0.37%.</p><p><blockquote>他喜欢Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index FundVBK，+0.07%的小盘股。以及SPDR Bloomberg Barclays可转换证券CWB，+0.64%和iShares可转换债券ICVT，+0.37%的可转换债券。</blockquote></p><p> As for individual names, he singles out MicrosoftMSFT,-0.00%and AppleAAPL,+0.42%in tech, as well as Amazon.comAMZN,+0.43%and TeslaTSLA,+0.16%.</p><p><blockquote>至于个人名称，他特别提到了科技股中的微软MSFT(-0.00%)和苹果AAPL(+0.42%)，以及亚马逊MAMZN(+0.43%)和特斯拉TSLA(+0.16%)。</blockquote></p><p> Also consider Howard’s two ETFs: The HCM Defender 100 IndexQQH,+0.62%and HCM Defender 500 IndexLGH,+1.32%.</p><p><blockquote>另请考虑Howard的两只ETF：HCM Defender 100 IndexQQH，+0.62%和HCM Defender 500 IndexLGH，+1.32%。</blockquote></p><p> He prefers to add to holdings on 1%-3% dips.</p><p><blockquote>他更喜欢在下跌1%-3%时增持。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A few drawbacks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一些缺点</b></blockquote></p><p> His HCM Tactical Growth fund has a history of posting two-year stretches of underperformance of 1.5% to 8.8%, since it was launched in 2015. The fund then came roaring back to net the very positive five-year outperformance cited above. Investing in his system can require patience.</p><p><blockquote>他的HCM战术增长基金自2015年推出以来，曾连续两年表现不佳，涨幅为1.5%至8.8%。随后，该基金卷土重来，实现了上述非常积极的五年优异表现。投资他的系统需要耐心。</blockquote></p><p> Every manager, including Warren Buffett, can have a stretch of underperformance, says Howard.</p><p><blockquote>霍华德说，每个经理人，包括沃伦·巴菲特，都可能有一段时间表现不佳。</blockquote></p><p> “We are in the odds game,” he says. “Even in the odds game, you can have a bad hand or two thrown at you.”</p><p><blockquote>“我们正处于赔率游戏中，”他说。“即使在赔率游戏中，你也可能会遇到一两手糟糕的牌。”</blockquote></p><p> Another challenge is the high turnover, which is 140% a year for Tactical Growth. This means Uncle Sam takes a big cut in the good years. So if you buy Howard’s funds, you may want to do so in a tax-protected account.</p><p><blockquote>另一个挑战是高流动率，战术增长每年140%。这意味着山姆大叔在好年景中会得到很大的提成。因此，如果您购买霍华德的基金，您可能希望在避税账户中购买。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/beat-the-market-with-this-quant-system-thats-very-bullish-on-stocks-at-record-highs-11630761531?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/beat-the-market-with-this-quant-system-thats-very-bullish-on-stocks-at-record-highs-11630761531?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157895022","content_text":"Vance Howard’s HCM Tactical Growth Fund moves you in and out of the stock market when prudent to do so. So far his team of computer scientists’ strategy has paid off.\n\nImagine you had a money-making machine to harvest gains in the stock market while you sat back to enjoy life.\nThat’s everyone’s dream, right? Investor Vance Howard thinks he’s found it.\nHoward and his small army of computer programmers atHoward Capital Managementin Roswell, Ga., have a quantitative system that posts great returns.\nHis HCM Tactical Growth Fund HCMGX,+0.35%beats its Russell 1000 benchmark index and large-blend fund category by 8.5-10.4 percentage points annualized over the past five years, according to Morningstar. That is no small feat, and not only because it has to overcome a 2.22% fee. Beating the market is simply not easy. His HCM Dividend Sector PlusHCMQX,-0.05%) and HCM Income PlusHCMLX,+0.30%funds post similar outperformance.\nThere are drawbacks, which I detail below. (Among them: Potentially long stretches of underperformance and regular tax bills.) But first, what can we learn from this winner?\nSo-called quants never share all the details of their proprietary systems, but Howard shares a lot, as you’ll see. And this Texas rancher has a lot of good advice based on “horse sense” — not surprising, given his infectious passion for the markets, and his three decades of experience as a pro.\nHere are five lessons, 12 exchange traded funds (ETFs) and four stocks to consider, from a recent interview with him.\nLesson #1: Don’t be emotional\nIt’s no surprise so many people do poorly in the market. Evolution has programmed us to fail. For survival, we’ve learned to run from things that frightens us. And crave more of things that are pleasurable — like sweets or fats to store calories ahead of what might be a long stretch without food. But in the market, acting on the emotions of fear and greed invariably make us do the wrong thing at the wrong time. Sell at the bottom, buy at the top.\nLikewise, we’re programmed to believe being with the crowd brings safety. If you’re a zebra on the Savanna, you are more likely to get picked off by a predator if you go it alone. The problem here is being part of a crowd — and crowd psychology — dumb us down to a purely emotional level. This is why people in crowds do terrible things they would never do on their own. It doesn’t matter how smart you are. When you join a crowd, you lose a lot of IQ points. Base emotions take over.\nTo do well in the market, you have to counteract these tendencies. “One of the biggest mistakes individual investors and money managers make is getting emotional,” says Howard. “Let your emotions go.”\nLesson #2: Have a system and stick to it\nTo exorcise emotion, have a system. “And don’t second guess it,” says Howard. “This keeps you from letting the pandemic or Afghanistan scare you out of the market.” He calls his system the HCM-BuyLine. It is basically a momentum and trend-following system — which often works well in the markets.\nThe HCM-BuyLine basically works like this. First, rather than use the S&P 500SPX,-0.03%or the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.21%,Howard blends several stock indices to create his own index. Then he uses a moving average that tells him whether the market is in an uptrend or downtrend.\nWhen the moving average drops 3.5%, he sells 35%. If it drops 6.5%, he sells another 35%. He rarely goes to 100% cash.\n“If the BuyLine is positive, we will stay long no matter what,” he says. “We take all the emotion out of the equation by letting the math decide.”\nRight now, it’s bullish. (More on this below.)\nYour system also has to tell you when to get back in.\n“That’s where most people screw up,” he says. “They get out of the market, and they don’t know when to get back in.” The HCM-BuyLine gives a buy signal when his custom index trades above its moving average for six consecutive sessions, and then goes on to trade above the high hit during those six days.\nYou don’t need a system that calls exact market tops or bottoms. Instead, the BuyLine keeps Howard out of down markets 85% of the time, and in for 85% of the good times.\n“If we can do that consistently, we have superior returns and a less stressful life,” he says. “Being all in during a bad tape is no fun.”\nHis system is slow to get him out of the market, but quick to get him back in. Not even a 10% correction will necessarily move him out. He’s often buying those pullbacks. Getting back in fast makes sense, because recoveries off bottoms tend to happen fast.\n“The HCM-BuyLine takes all the emotion out of the process,” says Howard.\nLesson #3: Don’t fight the tape\nThis concept is one of the core pieces of wisdom from Marty Zweig’s classic book, “Winning on Wall Street.”\n“You have to stay on the right side of market,” agrees Howard. “If you try to trade long in a bad market, it is painful.”\nIn other words, don’t try to be a hero.\n“Sometimes, not losing money is where you want to be,” he says.\nLikewise, don’t turn cautious just because the market hits new highs — like now. You should love new highs, because it is a sign of market strength that may likely endure.\nLesson #4: Keep it simple\nAs you’ll see below, Howard doesn’t use esoteric instruments such as derivatives, swaps or index options. He doesn’t even trade foreign stocks or currencies. This is refreshing for individual investors, because we have a harder time accessing those tools.\n“You don’t have to trade crazy stuff,” he says. “You can trade plain-vanilla ETFs and beat everybody out there.”\nLesson #5: How to trade the current market\nFirst, be long.\n“The HCM-BuyLine is very positive. We are 100% in,” says Howard. “The market is broadening out. It is getting pretty exciting. We do not see it turn around any time soon. We are buying pullbacks.”\nOne bullish signal is all the cash on the sidelines. “If there is any relief in Covid, we may see a big rally. We may end up with a great fall [season].”\nHoward uses momentum indicators to select stocks and ETFs, too. For sectors he favors the following.\nHe likes health care, tradable through the iShares US HealthcareIYH,-0.04%and ProShares Ultra Health CareRXL,+0.12%ETFs. He’s turning more bullish on biotech, which he plays via the iShares Biotechnology ETFIBB,-0.11%.\nHe likes consumer discretionary tradable through the iShares US Consumer ServicesIYC,-0.30%,and airlines via US Global JetsJETS,-1.17%.He also likes tech exposure via the Invesco QQQ TrustQQQ,+0.31%,iShares US TechnologyIYW,+0.50%and iShares SemiconductorSOXX,+0.75%.\nHe likes small-caps via the Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index FundVBK,+0.07%.And convertible bonds via SPDR Bloomberg Barclays Convertible SecuritiesCWB,+0.64%and iShares Convertible BondICVT,+0.37%.\nAs for individual names, he singles out MicrosoftMSFT,-0.00%and AppleAAPL,+0.42%in tech, as well as Amazon.comAMZN,+0.43%and TeslaTSLA,+0.16%.\nAlso consider Howard’s two ETFs: The HCM Defender 100 IndexQQH,+0.62%and HCM Defender 500 IndexLGH,+1.32%.\nHe prefers to add to holdings on 1%-3% dips.\nA few drawbacks\nHis HCM Tactical Growth fund has a history of posting two-year stretches of underperformance of 1.5% to 8.8%, since it was launched in 2015. The fund then came roaring back to net the very positive five-year outperformance cited above. Investing in his system can require patience.\nEvery manager, including Warren Buffett, can have a stretch of underperformance, says Howard.\n“We are in the odds game,” he says. “Even in the odds game, you can have a bad hand or two thrown at you.”\nAnother challenge is the high turnover, which is 140% a year for Tactical Growth. This means Uncle Sam takes a big cut in the good years. So if you buy Howard’s funds, you may want to do so in a tax-protected account.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":337,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":814380843,"gmtCreate":1630763190882,"gmtModify":1632905996887,"author":{"id":"3579326417741698","authorId":"3579326417741698","name":"小霖妹子","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579326417741698","authorIdStr":"3579326417741698"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/814380843","repostId":"1196145266","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":384,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":815937307,"gmtCreate":1630634574009,"gmtModify":1632469146881,"author":{"id":"3579326417741698","authorId":"3579326417741698","name":"小霖妹子","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579326417741698","authorIdStr":"3579326417741698"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Liked","listText":"Liked","text":"Liked","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/815937307","repostId":"1109595556","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109595556","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630631097,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1109595556?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-03 09:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"August Payrolls Preview: It Will Be A Miss, The Question Is How Big<blockquote>8月就业前瞻：这将是一个失误，问题是有多大</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109595556","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Summary:The consensus looks for the pace of hiring to cool in August, especially after Wednesday's d","content":"<p><b>Summary:</b>The consensus looks for the pace of hiring to cool in August, especially after Wednesday's disastrous ADP report, although the short-term trend rates are still likely to improve; if the consensus is correct, it may offer further accumulated evidence that the labor market is making progress towards the Fed's 'substantial' threshold where it will feel comfortable in scaling back its asset purchases, according toNewsquawk..</p><p><blockquote><b>摘要：</b>市场普遍预计8月份招聘步伐将降温，尤其是在周三公布灾难性的ADP报告之后，尽管短期趋势利率仍有可能改善；据toNewsquawk称，如果共识是正确的，它可能会提供进一步积累的证据，表明劳动力市场正在朝着美联储的“实质性”门槛取得进展，美联储将放心缩减资产购买规模。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key expectations:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关键期望：</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Headline non-farm payrolls are expected to print 725k (prev. 943k).</li>  <li>The unemployment rate is expected to decline by 0.2% to 5.2%, although this figure may not give a true reflection of the labor market;</li>  <li>Analysts will be focused on the participation rate (which rose to 61.7% in July from 61.6% in June vs 63.2% pre-pandemic), the U6 measure of underemployment (which fell to 9.2% in July from 9.8% in June vs 7.0% pre-pandemic), and the employment-population ratio (which rose to 58.4% in July from 58.0% in June vs 61.1% pre-pandemic).</li>  <li>Average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% M/M, down from 0.4% in July, and 4.0% Y/Y.</li> </ul> <b>Labor market gauges have been mixed in August:</b>&nbsp;while ADP's private payrolls disappointed expectations (again), the weekly initial jobless claims and continuing claims fell to a new post-pandemic low. Other metrics, however, offer a gloomier assessment: the ISM and Markit manufacturing surveys allude to a cooling in labor market conditions, with the Delta variant being cited as a reason for the softer pace of hiring. Given that the jobs data will be framed within the context of the Fed's policy reaction, many analysts have been suggesting a<b>'good data is bad for the prospects of further accommodation'</b>playbook, and vice versa; however, this strategy was not seen in wake of the disappointing ADP data this week. Many argue that the market has already moved on from the timing of the taper announcement – assumed to be in Q4 before implementation late this year or early next – and focus is on the pace of the reductions and the duration of the taper, and the August jobs data is not likely to inform the latter two meaningfully.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>总体非农就业人数预计将印刷72.5万（上一页。94.3万）。</li><li>失业率预计将下降0.2%至5.2%，尽管这一数字可能无法真实反映劳动力市场；</li><li>分析师将关注参与率（从6月份的61.6%升至7月份的61.7%，而大流行前为63.2%）、U6就业不足指标（从6月份的9.8%降至7月份的9.2%，大流行前为7.0%）和就业人口比率（从6月份的58.0%升至7月份的58.4%，大流行前为61.1%）。</li><li>平均时薪预计将环比增长0.3%，低于7月份的0.4%，同比增长4.0%。</li></ul><b>八月份劳动力市场指标好坏参半：</b>尽管ADP的私人就业人数（再次）低于预期，但每周首次申请失业救济人数和持续申请失业救济人数降至大流行后的新低。然而，其他指标提供了更悲观的评估：ISM和Markit制造业调查暗示劳动力市场状况降温，德尔塔变异毒株被认为是招聘步伐放缓的原因。鉴于就业数据将在美联储政策反应的背景下制定，许多分析师一直建议<b>“良好的数据不利于进一步宽松的前景”</b>剧本，反之亦然；然而，在本周令人失望的ADP数据之后，这一策略并没有出现。许多人认为，市场已经从宣布缩减规模的时间——假设是在今年年底或明年初实施之前的第四季度——焦点是削减的速度和缩减规模的持续时间，以及8月份的就业数据不太可能为后两者提供有意义的信息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>While Consensus remains surprisingly bullish, Goldman's forecast was recently slashed to just 500K</b>, about a third lower than consensus of 725K. As the bank explains, \"while the seasonal hurdle is relatively low in August, the monthly pace and cross-section of Big Data employment indicators are consistent with a sizeable drag from the Delta variant.\" Specifically, the bank notes that high-frequency data on the labor market<b>were disappointing between the July and August survey weeks</b>&nbsp;with all of the indicators we track consistent with a slowdown from the 943k July pace. Only one of the five measures Goldman tracks indicated an underlying job gain in excess of consensus (Census Small Business Pulse, +0.8mn). On the positive side, Goldman expects the reopening of schools to boost job growth by around 150k in tomorrow’s report.</p><p><blockquote><b>尽管市场共识仍然出人意料地看涨，但高盛的预测最近被削减至仅50万</b>，比725K的共识低约三分之一。正如该行解释的那样，“虽然8月份的季节性障碍相对较低，但大数据就业指标的月度速度和横截面与德尔塔变异毒株的相当大的拖累一致。”具体而言，该行指出，劳动力市场高频数据<b>在七月和八月的调查周之间令人失望</b>我们跟踪的所有指标都与7月份94.3万辆的增速放缓一致。高盛追踪的五项指标中，只有一项表明潜在的就业增长超过了共识（Census Small Business Pulse，+0.8 0万）。从积极的一面来看，高盛预计学校的重新开放将在明天的报告中促进约15万个就业岗位的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>POLICY FOCUS</b>: Many Fed officials want to see further accumulated evidence that the labor market is progressing towards its 'substantial further progress' threshold for tapering asset purchases before they commit to a timeline for scaling back these purchases, as well as the modalities of how the taper will look. The August jobs data will be eyed within this context, with analysts suggesting that a weak reading will allow the Fed more time to shape its views, while a stronger-than-expected report will add urgency to a process that some Fed officials want wrapped-up by mid-2022. The Fed has been framing the post-pandemic upside in inflation as transitory, although not everyone is convinced.</p><p><blockquote><b>政策重点</b>：许多美联储官员希望在承诺缩减资产购买的时间表以及缩减资产购买的方式之前，看到进一步积累的证据表明劳动力市场正在朝着缩减资产购买的“实质性进一步进展”门槛迈进。人们将在此背景下关注8月份的就业数据，分析师表示，疲弱的数据将让美联储有更多时间来形成其观点，而强于预期的报告将为一些美联储官员希望结束的进程增加紧迫性——到2022年中期。美联储一直将大流行后通胀上行视为暂时的，尽管并非所有人都相信。</blockquote></p><p> <b>SLACK:</b>&nbsp;Headline non-farm payrolls are expected to print 728k (prev. 943k) in August; private payrolls are seen at 665k (prev. 703k), and government payrolls are seen at 25k (prev. 27k). The unemployment rate is expected to decline to 5.2% from 5.4%; many officials do not think that the headline unemployment rate is truly indicative of the health of the labour market, and in recent months, have been monitoring measures like the participation rate (which rose to 61.7% in July from 61.6% in June vs 63.2% pre-pandemic), the U6 measure of underemployment (which fell to 9.2% in July from 9.8% in June vs 7.0% pre-pandemic), and the employment-population ratio (which rose to 58.4% in July from 58.0% in June vs 61.1% pre-pandemic) which all offer better insight into the progress being made in eroding the slack seen since the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote><b>松弛：</b>整体非农就业人数预计为72.8万人（前值。94.3万）8月；私人就业人数为66.5万（上一页。703k），政府工资为25k（上一页。27k）.失业率预计将从5.4%下降至5.2%；许多官员并不认为总体失业率真正表明了劳动力市场的健康状况，近几个月来，他们一直在监测参与率（从6月份的61.6%上升到7月份的61.7%，而疫情前为63.2%）、U6就业不足指标（从6月份的9.8%下降到7月份的9.2%，而疫情前为7.0%）和就业人口比率（从6月份的58.0%上升到7月份的58.4%，而疫情前为61.1%）等指标，这些指标都可以更好地了解自疫情以来在消除疲软方面取得的进展。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>TREND RATES:</b>&nbsp;There are still 5.7mln fewer Americans in employment compared to pre-pandemic levels in February 2020. The Fed does not specifically quantify what 'substantial further progress' means; market participants have argued that, at minimum, it should mean a continuation of current trends, if not an improving trend rate. The short-term trends improved in the July data; the 3-month trend rate stood at 832k in July (vs 607k trend in the 3-months through June); the 6-month trend rate stood at 681k in July (vs the 563k in the 3-months through June); but the 12-month trend rate was 605k in July (vs 670k in the 12-months through June). If the August consensus expectation of 728k was realised, the 3- month and 6-month trend rates would improve again, possibly giving Fed officials evidence of accumulated progress towards the 'substantial further progress' threshold.</p><p><blockquote><b>趋势费率：</b>与2020年2月大流行前的水平相比，美国就业人数仍减少570万。美联储没有具体量化“实质性的进一步进展”意味着什么；市场参与者认为，至少，这应该意味着当前趋势的延续，即使趋势利率没有改善。7月数据短期趋势改善；7月份的3个月趋势利率为832k（而截至6月份的3个月趋势为607k）；7月份的6个月趋势利率为681k（而截至6月份的3个月为563k）；但7月份的12个月趋势率为60.5万（截至6月份的12个月为67万）。如果8月份72.8万的共识预期得以实现，3个月和6个月趋势利率将再次改善，可能为美联储官员提供证据，证明在实现“实质性进一步进展”阈值方面取得了累积进展。</blockquote></p><p> <b>WAGES:</b>&nbsp;Average hourly earnings are seen rising +0.3% M/M (prev. +0.4% M/M), though the annualized measure is seen unchanged at 4.0% Y/Y; the average workweek is expected to be unchanged at 34.8hrs. Analysts will be carefully monitoring the average hourly earnings measures; the argument is that higher prices may stoke consumer inflation expectations, as seen in recent consumer confidence reports, and will result in higher compensation as workers demand more cash amid rising prices; analysts say that this would add to evidence that inflation is more persistent than the Fed is currently admitting to.</p><p><blockquote><b>工资：</b>平均每小时收入预计将增长+0.3%（上一次为+0.4%），尽管年化指标预计同比增长4.0%；平均每周工作时间预计将保持在34.8小时不变。分析师将仔细监控平均每小时收入指标；其论点是，正如最近的消费者信心报告所示，价格上涨可能会引发消费者通胀预期，并将导致更高的薪酬，因为工人在价格上涨的情况下需要更多现金；分析师表示，这将进一步证明通胀比美联储目前承认的更持久。</blockquote></p><p> <b>ADP:</b>&nbsp;The private payrolls survey by ADP disappointed expectations, showing just 374k jobs were added to the US economy in August; analysts were expecting 613k, following the (also) disappointing 326k it reported in July. ADP attributed the weak August report to the Delta variant; Moody's Analytics said \"the Delta variant appears to have dented the job market recovery,\" but \"job growth remains strong, but well-off the pace of recent months, and job growth remains inextricably tied to the path of the pandemic.\" Fed officials have recently been more sanguine on the impact of Delta, although some officials have argued that the Fed is still capable of tweaking policy if the pandemic once again became more persistent.<i>NOTE:</i>The ADP data uses previous official BLS data within its methodology; that July BLS data was strong relative to expectations, so does allude to a more tepid pace of hiring in August, although desks continue to note the tenuous relationship that the ADP data has in signalling the official BLS data; last month, for instance, the ADP flagged a weaker jobs report, although the official data surprised to the upside.</p><p><blockquote><b>ADP：</b>ADP的私人就业调查令人失望，显示8月份美国经济仅增加了37.4万个就业岗位；继7月份报告的（同样）令人失望的32.6万之后，分析师预计为61.3万。ADP将8月报告疲软归因于德尔塔变异毒株；穆迪分析公司表示，“德尔塔变异毒株似乎削弱了就业市场的复苏”，但“就业增长仍然强劲，但近几个月的速度很好，就业增长仍然与大流行的路径密不可分。”美联储官员最近对达美航空的影响更加乐观，尽管一些官员认为，如果疫情再次变得更加持续，美联储仍然有能力调整政策。<i>注：</i>ADP数据在其方法中使用了以前的BLS官方数据；7月份的BLS数据相对于预期强劲，因此确实暗示了8月份的招聘速度更加不温不火，尽管各部门继续注意到ADP数据与BLS官方数据的信号之间的脆弱关系；例如，上个月，ADP显示就业报告疲软，尽管官方数据出人意料地上升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS</b>: Weekly claims data that coincides with the traditional BLS survey window showed claims falling to a post-pandemic low at 349k; the four-week moving average also declined relative to the July survey window, both boding well for the official jobs report. The continuing claims data which coincides with the traditional BLS survey window also fell to a post-pandemic low at 2.862mln (vs 3.296mln heading into the July jobs data). Pantheon Macroeconomics said that the claims numbers are now finally free of the distortions caused by the automakers' retooling shutdowns and the trend is still falling, which suggests that the surge in COVID cases had not yet triggered an increase in layoffs. \"These data, however, tell us nothing about the pace of gross hiring, and it’s entirely possible that firms’&nbsp; first reaction to the Delta wave has been to slow the pace of recruitment, before taking the more difficult decision to let go existing staff,\" Pantheon said, \"still, these data are encouraging.\" Other desks also point out that the claims data only gives insight into workers being laid off (and is essentially corroborated by Challenger's lay-offs data, which fell to the lowest since June 1997), whereas some argue that the labour market weakness seen of late is likely a function of slowing hiring amid the spread of the Delta variant, which is more reflected in surveys.</p><p><blockquote><b>首次申请失业救济人数</b>：与传统BLS调查窗口一致的每周申请数据显示，申请人数降至大流行后的低点349k；相对于7月份的调查窗口，四周移动平均线也有所下降，这都是官方就业报告的好兆头。与传统的BLS调查窗口一致的持续申领数据也降至大流行后的低点286.2万人（7月份就业数据为329.6万人）。Pantheon Macroeconomics表示，索赔人数现在终于摆脱了汽车制造商重组停工造成的扭曲，而且趋势仍在下降，这表明新冠病例激增尚未引发裁员增加。“然而，这些数据并没有告诉我们有关总招聘速度的任何信息，而且企业对三角洲浪潮的第一反应完全有可能是放慢招聘速度，然后再做出解雇现有员工的更困难的决定，”万神殿表示，“尽管如此，这些数据还是令人鼓舞的。”其他部门还指出，索赔数据只能让人们深入了解被解雇的工人（挑战者的裁员数据基本上证实了这一点，该数据降至1997年6月以来的最低水平），而一些人认为，最近出现的劳动力市场疲软可能是德尔塔变异毒株蔓延导致招聘放缓的结果，这在调查中得到了更多反映。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>BUSINESS SURVEYS:</b>&nbsp;The business survey data only offers a partial glimpse of the labour market this month, given that the Services ISM and Markit's Final Services PMI for August are both set for release after the jobs report (NOTE: the flash services data from Markit showed employment falling by 2.5 points to 50.8). The ISM manufacturing report saw its employment sub-index tumble by almost 4 points into contractionary territory at 49.0, with the survey noting that new surges of COVID-19 were adding to pandemic-related issues, like worker absenteeism, short-term shutdowns due to parts shortages, as well as difficulties in filling open positions and overseas supply chain problems. That said, the report also said that companies were still struggling to meet labour-management plans, but despite a contracting index, there were positive signs compared to recent months, partly mitigating the gloom implied by the index itself. Meanwhile, Markit's manufacturing PMI alluded to employment growth easing as firms struggled to retain staff and find suitable candidates for current vacancies.</p><p><blockquote><b>商业调查：</b>鉴于服务业ISM和Markit 8月份最终服务业PMI均将在就业报告发布后发布，商业调查数据仅提供了本月劳动力市场的部分情况（注：Markit的服务业数据显示就业率下降2.5点至50.8）。ISM制造业报告显示，其就业分类指数下跌近4个点，至49.0的收缩区域，调查指出，新一轮的COVID-19激增加剧了与大流行相关的问题，如工人缺勤、因零部件短缺而导致的短期停工，以及填补空缺职位的困难和海外供应链问题。尽管如此，报告还表示，企业仍在努力满足劳资计划，但尽管指数收缩，但与近几个月相比仍有积极迹象，部分缓解了指数本身隐含的悲观情绪。与此同时，Markit的制造业PMI暗示就业增长放缓，因为企业难以留住员工并为当前职位空缺寻找合适的候选人。</blockquote></p><p> <b>ARGUING FOR A WEAKER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>主张报告弱于预期：</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Delta variant.</b>&nbsp;Unlike in the first month of the covid resurgence, the Delta variant now appears to be affecting services consumption and the labor market. The revival of the CDC’s mask recommendation on July 27 occurred after the July payroll survey week had ended, which would be consistent with a drag in tomorrow’s report despite the strong gains in the previous one. As shown in the left panel of Exhibit 1, restaurant seatings on Open Table pulled back at the turn of the month, falling to 89% of their 2019 levels during the August survey week, compared to 95% in the July survey week. This would argue for a pause or pullback in US leisure and hospitality employment in tomorrow’s report. Additionally, as shown in the right panel, rising infection rates were associated with weaker employment growth in the state cross-section of the Homebase dataset, consistent with a negative Delta impact on labor demand, labor supply, or both.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e6cda55cde31266e2ae8030d47c7fd2\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"499\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>德尔塔变异毒株.</b>与新冠疫情卷土重来的第一个月不同，德尔塔变异毒株现在似乎正在影响服务消费和劳动力市场。CDC于7月27日恢复了口罩建议，发生在7月就业调查周结束后，这将与明天报告的拖累一致，尽管前一份报告强劲上涨。如图表1的左图所示，开放式餐桌上的餐厅座位在本月初有所回落，在8月份调查周降至2019年水平的89%，而7月份调查周为95%。这将在明天的报告中证明美国休闲和酒店业就业暂停或回落。此外，如右图所示，在Homebase数据集的州横截面中，感染率上升与就业增长疲软相关，这与对劳动力需求、劳动力供应或两者的负面Delta影响一致。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Big Data.</b>&nbsp;High-frequency data on the labor market were disappointing between the July and August survey weeks (see Exhibit 2), with all of the indicators we track consistent with a slowdown from the 943k July pace. Only one of the five measures we track indicates an underlying job gain in excess of consensus (Census Small Business Pulse, +0.8mn), though we acknowledge that the track record for Big Data indicators during the crisis has been mixed.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d0f0682fdbf5a6c87c665c82c2c192e\" tg-width=\"820\" tg-height=\"570\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>大数据。</b>7月至8月调查周期间劳动力市场的高频数据令人失望（见图表2），我们跟踪的所有指标都与7月94.3万人的增速放缓一致。我们跟踪的五项指标中只有一项表明潜在的就业增长超过了共识（Census Small Business Pulse，+0.8 0万），尽管我们承认危机期间大数据指标的记录好坏参半。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>ADP.</b>&nbsp;Private sector employment in the ADP report increased by 374k in August, below consensus expectations for a 625k gain. Because the statistical inputs to the ADP model probably boosted their jobs estimate, we believe the underlying ADP sample showed only modest gains in the month.</li> </ul> <b>ARGUING FOR A STRONGER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>ADP.</b>ADP报告中的私营部门就业人数在8月份增加了37.4万人，低于普遍预期的62.5万人。由于ADP模型的统计输入可能提高了他们的就业估计，我们认为基础ADP样本本月仅显示小幅增长。</li></ul><b>主张报告强于预期</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>School reopening.</b>&nbsp;We expect a roughly 150k boost from the reopening of schools, as many teachers and support staff return for the fall school year (some of whom were not working at the end of the prior one). While a pace of reopening similar to August 2020would contribute nearly 300k jobs (mom sa), the level of education employment is 600khigher a year later, and we believe some janitors and support staff did not return due to capacity restrictions and hybrid teaching models.</li>  <li><b>Wind-down of Top-ups.</b>&nbsp;The expiration of federal benefits in some states has boosted labor supply and job-finding rates. Federal benefits were partially or fully curtailed in half of US states (representing 29% of the outstanding job losses since the start of the pandemic) in June and early July. And encouragingly, continuing claims have continued to decline more quickly in these states (by roughly 150k relative to the trend in all other states in the August payroll month).</li>  <li><b>Seasonality.</b>&nbsp;The August seasonal hurdle is relatively low: the BLS adjustment factors generally assume a 100-200k decline in private payrolls (which exclude public schools),compared to +0.5mn over the previous four months.</li>  <li><b>Job availability.</b>&nbsp;The Conference Board labor differential—the difference between the percent of respondents saying jobs are plentiful and those saying jobs are hard to get—decreased by 1.3pt to +42.8 in August but remains at a high level. Additionally, job openings increased by 590k to a record high in June, according to the JOLTS report.</li>  <li><b>Jobless claims.</b>&nbsp;Initial jobless claims edged down during the August payroll month,averaging 355k per week vs. 393k in July. Continuing claims also decreased, averaging2,840k in August vs. 3,140k in July. Across all employee programs including emergency benefits, continuing claims remained roughly unchanged between the payroll survey weeks.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d0f0682fdbf5a6c87c665c82c2c192e\" tg-width=\"820\" tg-height=\"570\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>学校重新开学。</b>我们预计学校重新开放将增加大约15万人，因为许多教师和辅助人员将在秋季学年返回（其中一些人在上一学年结束时没有工作）。尽管与2020年8月相似的重新开放速度将贡献近30万个就业岗位（mom sa），但一年后教育就业水平将达到600khigher，我们认为由于能力限制和混合教学模式，一些看门人和辅助人员并未返回。</li><li><b>充值的逐步减少。</b>一些州联邦福利的到期提振了劳动力供应和就业率。6月和7月初，美国一半州的联邦福利部分或全部削减（占疫情开始以来未解决失业人数的29%）。令人鼓舞的是，这些州的持续申请人数继续下降得更快（相对于8月份所有其他州的趋势，下降了大约15万）。</li><li><b>季节性。</b>8月份的季节性障碍相对较低：BLS调整因素通常假设私人就业人数（不包括公立学校）下降10-20万，而前四个月为+50万。</li><li><b>工作可用性。</b>世界大型企业联合会（Conference Board）劳动力差异——表示工作岗位充足的受访者与表示工作岗位难以获得的受访者之间的差异——在8月份下降了1.3个百分点，至+42.8，但仍处于较高水平。此外，根据JOLTS的报告，6月份职位空缺增加了59万个，创历史新高。</li><li><b>申请失业救济。</b>8月份首次申请失业救济人数小幅下降，平均每周35.5万人，而7月份为39.3万人。持续申请失业救济人数也有所下降，8月份平均为284万人，而7月份为314万人。在包括紧急福利在内的所有员工计划中，在薪资调查周之间，持续申领的人数大致保持不变。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <b>NEUTRAL/MIXED FACTORS:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>中性/混合因子：</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Employer surveys.</b>&nbsp;The employment component of the ISM Manufacturing Index fell into contractionary territory (-3.9pt to 49.0). The employment component of our manufacturing survey tracker also decreased (-0.8pt to 58.3), but the employment component of our services survey tracker increased (+0.1pt to 54.9). The employment component of the GSAI increased by 2.8pt to 70.0.</li>  <li><b>Job cuts.</b>&nbsp;Announced layoffs reported by Challenger, Gray &amp; Christmas decreased by1% in August after decreasing by 13% in July (mom, SA by GS). Layoffs were at the lowest level since 1993.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9338be1c37fd2c7e922fa0e54d4b6aa\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"544\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><b>REACTION:</b>&nbsp;Citi argues that given still net-long broader USD positions, any miss relative to the consensus may buoy Treasuries (as traders reason that the Fed would remain accommodative for longer), and any decline in yields would likely accelerate the Dollar's recent underperformance. \"A<i>'goldilocks'</i>release that entails a slight miss would be most ideal for risk assets heading into an extended weekend,\" but the bigger picture Citi says is that \"the broader taper narrative will not have long-lasting market implications given broad expectations for a Q4 conclusion; nonetheless, the interim run-up will see taper talk as a persistent albeit fading influence on market moves.\"</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>雇主调查。</b>ISM制造业指数的就业部分陷入收缩区间（-3.9点至49.0）。我们的制造业调查跟踪器的就业部分也下降了（-0.8个百分点至58.3），但我们的服务业调查跟踪器的就业部分上升了（+0.1个百分点至54.9）。GSAI的就业部分上升了2.8个百分点，达到70.0。</li><li><b>裁员。</b>Challenger、Gray&amp;Christmas报告的宣布裁员人数继7月份下降13%后，8月份下降了1%（mom，SA by GS）。裁员人数处于1993年以来的最低水平。</li></ul><b>反应：</b>花旗认为，鉴于更广泛的美元头寸仍然是净多头，任何相对于共识的失误都可能提振美国国债（因为交易员认为美联储将在更长时间内保持宽松），而收益率的任何下降都可能加速美元近期的表现不佳。“一个<i>“金发姑娘”</i>对于进入长周末的风险资产来说，略有失误的释放将是最理想的，”但花旗表示，更大的前景是，“鉴于对第四季度结论的广泛预期，更广泛的缩减叙事不会产生长期的市场影响；尽管如此，中期上涨将认为缩减购债规模的言论对市场走势产生持续的影响，尽管这种影响正在减弱。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAugust Payrolls Preview: It Will Be A Miss, The Question Is How Big<blockquote>8月就业前瞻：这将是一个失误，问题是有多大</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-03 09:04</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary:</b>The consensus looks for the pace of hiring to cool in August, especially after Wednesday's disastrous ADP report, although the short-term trend rates are still likely to improve; if the consensus is correct, it may offer further accumulated evidence that the labor market is making progress towards the Fed's 'substantial' threshold where it will feel comfortable in scaling back its asset purchases, according toNewsquawk..</p><p><blockquote><b>摘要：</b>市场普遍预计8月份招聘步伐将降温，尤其是在周三公布灾难性的ADP报告之后，尽管短期趋势利率仍有可能改善；据toNewsquawk称，如果共识是正确的，它可能会提供进一步积累的证据，表明劳动力市场正在朝着美联储的“实质性”门槛取得进展，美联储将放心缩减资产购买规模。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key expectations:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关键期望：</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Headline non-farm payrolls are expected to print 725k (prev. 943k).</li>  <li>The unemployment rate is expected to decline by 0.2% to 5.2%, although this figure may not give a true reflection of the labor market;</li>  <li>Analysts will be focused on the participation rate (which rose to 61.7% in July from 61.6% in June vs 63.2% pre-pandemic), the U6 measure of underemployment (which fell to 9.2% in July from 9.8% in June vs 7.0% pre-pandemic), and the employment-population ratio (which rose to 58.4% in July from 58.0% in June vs 61.1% pre-pandemic).</li>  <li>Average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% M/M, down from 0.4% in July, and 4.0% Y/Y.</li> </ul> <b>Labor market gauges have been mixed in August:</b>&nbsp;while ADP's private payrolls disappointed expectations (again), the weekly initial jobless claims and continuing claims fell to a new post-pandemic low. Other metrics, however, offer a gloomier assessment: the ISM and Markit manufacturing surveys allude to a cooling in labor market conditions, with the Delta variant being cited as a reason for the softer pace of hiring. Given that the jobs data will be framed within the context of the Fed's policy reaction, many analysts have been suggesting a<b>'good data is bad for the prospects of further accommodation'</b>playbook, and vice versa; however, this strategy was not seen in wake of the disappointing ADP data this week. Many argue that the market has already moved on from the timing of the taper announcement – assumed to be in Q4 before implementation late this year or early next – and focus is on the pace of the reductions and the duration of the taper, and the August jobs data is not likely to inform the latter two meaningfully.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>总体非农就业人数预计将印刷72.5万（上一页。94.3万）。</li><li>失业率预计将下降0.2%至5.2%，尽管这一数字可能无法真实反映劳动力市场；</li><li>分析师将关注参与率（从6月份的61.6%升至7月份的61.7%，而大流行前为63.2%）、U6就业不足指标（从6月份的9.8%降至7月份的9.2%，大流行前为7.0%）和就业人口比率（从6月份的58.0%升至7月份的58.4%，大流行前为61.1%）。</li><li>平均时薪预计将环比增长0.3%，低于7月份的0.4%，同比增长4.0%。</li></ul><b>八月份劳动力市场指标好坏参半：</b>尽管ADP的私人就业人数（再次）低于预期，但每周首次申请失业救济人数和持续申请失业救济人数降至大流行后的新低。然而，其他指标提供了更悲观的评估：ISM和Markit制造业调查暗示劳动力市场状况降温，德尔塔变异毒株被认为是招聘步伐放缓的原因。鉴于就业数据将在美联储政策反应的背景下制定，许多分析师一直建议<b>“良好的数据不利于进一步宽松的前景”</b>剧本，反之亦然；然而，在本周令人失望的ADP数据之后，这一策略并没有出现。许多人认为，市场已经从宣布缩减规模的时间——假设是在今年年底或明年初实施之前的第四季度——焦点是削减的速度和缩减规模的持续时间，以及8月份的就业数据不太可能为后两者提供有意义的信息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>While Consensus remains surprisingly bullish, Goldman's forecast was recently slashed to just 500K</b>, about a third lower than consensus of 725K. As the bank explains, \"while the seasonal hurdle is relatively low in August, the monthly pace and cross-section of Big Data employment indicators are consistent with a sizeable drag from the Delta variant.\" Specifically, the bank notes that high-frequency data on the labor market<b>were disappointing between the July and August survey weeks</b>&nbsp;with all of the indicators we track consistent with a slowdown from the 943k July pace. Only one of the five measures Goldman tracks indicated an underlying job gain in excess of consensus (Census Small Business Pulse, +0.8mn). On the positive side, Goldman expects the reopening of schools to boost job growth by around 150k in tomorrow’s report.</p><p><blockquote><b>尽管市场共识仍然出人意料地看涨，但高盛的预测最近被削减至仅50万</b>，比725K的共识低约三分之一。正如该行解释的那样，“虽然8月份的季节性障碍相对较低，但大数据就业指标的月度速度和横截面与德尔塔变异毒株的相当大的拖累一致。”具体而言，该行指出，劳动力市场高频数据<b>在七月和八月的调查周之间令人失望</b>我们跟踪的所有指标都与7月份94.3万辆的增速放缓一致。高盛追踪的五项指标中，只有一项表明潜在的就业增长超过了共识（Census Small Business Pulse，+0.8 0万）。从积极的一面来看，高盛预计学校的重新开放将在明天的报告中促进约15万个就业岗位的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>POLICY FOCUS</b>: Many Fed officials want to see further accumulated evidence that the labor market is progressing towards its 'substantial further progress' threshold for tapering asset purchases before they commit to a timeline for scaling back these purchases, as well as the modalities of how the taper will look. The August jobs data will be eyed within this context, with analysts suggesting that a weak reading will allow the Fed more time to shape its views, while a stronger-than-expected report will add urgency to a process that some Fed officials want wrapped-up by mid-2022. The Fed has been framing the post-pandemic upside in inflation as transitory, although not everyone is convinced.</p><p><blockquote><b>政策重点</b>：许多美联储官员希望在承诺缩减资产购买的时间表以及缩减资产购买的方式之前，看到进一步积累的证据表明劳动力市场正在朝着缩减资产购买的“实质性进一步进展”门槛迈进。人们将在此背景下关注8月份的就业数据，分析师表示，疲弱的数据将让美联储有更多时间来形成其观点，而强于预期的报告将为一些美联储官员希望结束的进程增加紧迫性——到2022年中期。美联储一直将大流行后通胀上行视为暂时的，尽管并非所有人都相信。</blockquote></p><p> <b>SLACK:</b>&nbsp;Headline non-farm payrolls are expected to print 728k (prev. 943k) in August; private payrolls are seen at 665k (prev. 703k), and government payrolls are seen at 25k (prev. 27k). The unemployment rate is expected to decline to 5.2% from 5.4%; many officials do not think that the headline unemployment rate is truly indicative of the health of the labour market, and in recent months, have been monitoring measures like the participation rate (which rose to 61.7% in July from 61.6% in June vs 63.2% pre-pandemic), the U6 measure of underemployment (which fell to 9.2% in July from 9.8% in June vs 7.0% pre-pandemic), and the employment-population ratio (which rose to 58.4% in July from 58.0% in June vs 61.1% pre-pandemic) which all offer better insight into the progress being made in eroding the slack seen since the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote><b>松弛：</b>整体非农就业人数预计为72.8万人（前值。94.3万）8月；私人就业人数为66.5万（上一页。703k），政府工资为25k（上一页。27k）.失业率预计将从5.4%下降至5.2%；许多官员并不认为总体失业率真正表明了劳动力市场的健康状况，近几个月来，他们一直在监测参与率（从6月份的61.6%上升到7月份的61.7%，而疫情前为63.2%）、U6就业不足指标（从6月份的9.8%下降到7月份的9.2%，而疫情前为7.0%）和就业人口比率（从6月份的58.0%上升到7月份的58.4%，而疫情前为61.1%）等指标，这些指标都可以更好地了解自疫情以来在消除疲软方面取得的进展。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>TREND RATES:</b>&nbsp;There are still 5.7mln fewer Americans in employment compared to pre-pandemic levels in February 2020. The Fed does not specifically quantify what 'substantial further progress' means; market participants have argued that, at minimum, it should mean a continuation of current trends, if not an improving trend rate. The short-term trends improved in the July data; the 3-month trend rate stood at 832k in July (vs 607k trend in the 3-months through June); the 6-month trend rate stood at 681k in July (vs the 563k in the 3-months through June); but the 12-month trend rate was 605k in July (vs 670k in the 12-months through June). If the August consensus expectation of 728k was realised, the 3- month and 6-month trend rates would improve again, possibly giving Fed officials evidence of accumulated progress towards the 'substantial further progress' threshold.</p><p><blockquote><b>趋势费率：</b>与2020年2月大流行前的水平相比，美国就业人数仍减少570万。美联储没有具体量化“实质性的进一步进展”意味着什么；市场参与者认为，至少，这应该意味着当前趋势的延续，即使趋势利率没有改善。7月数据短期趋势改善；7月份的3个月趋势利率为832k（而截至6月份的3个月趋势为607k）；7月份的6个月趋势利率为681k（而截至6月份的3个月为563k）；但7月份的12个月趋势率为60.5万（截至6月份的12个月为67万）。如果8月份72.8万的共识预期得以实现，3个月和6个月趋势利率将再次改善，可能为美联储官员提供证据，证明在实现“实质性进一步进展”阈值方面取得了累积进展。</blockquote></p><p> <b>WAGES:</b>&nbsp;Average hourly earnings are seen rising +0.3% M/M (prev. +0.4% M/M), though the annualized measure is seen unchanged at 4.0% Y/Y; the average workweek is expected to be unchanged at 34.8hrs. Analysts will be carefully monitoring the average hourly earnings measures; the argument is that higher prices may stoke consumer inflation expectations, as seen in recent consumer confidence reports, and will result in higher compensation as workers demand more cash amid rising prices; analysts say that this would add to evidence that inflation is more persistent than the Fed is currently admitting to.</p><p><blockquote><b>工资：</b>平均每小时收入预计将增长+0.3%（上一次为+0.4%），尽管年化指标预计同比增长4.0%；平均每周工作时间预计将保持在34.8小时不变。分析师将仔细监控平均每小时收入指标；其论点是，正如最近的消费者信心报告所示，价格上涨可能会引发消费者通胀预期，并将导致更高的薪酬，因为工人在价格上涨的情况下需要更多现金；分析师表示，这将进一步证明通胀比美联储目前承认的更持久。</blockquote></p><p> <b>ADP:</b>&nbsp;The private payrolls survey by ADP disappointed expectations, showing just 374k jobs were added to the US economy in August; analysts were expecting 613k, following the (also) disappointing 326k it reported in July. ADP attributed the weak August report to the Delta variant; Moody's Analytics said \"the Delta variant appears to have dented the job market recovery,\" but \"job growth remains strong, but well-off the pace of recent months, and job growth remains inextricably tied to the path of the pandemic.\" Fed officials have recently been more sanguine on the impact of Delta, although some officials have argued that the Fed is still capable of tweaking policy if the pandemic once again became more persistent.<i>NOTE:</i>The ADP data uses previous official BLS data within its methodology; that July BLS data was strong relative to expectations, so does allude to a more tepid pace of hiring in August, although desks continue to note the tenuous relationship that the ADP data has in signalling the official BLS data; last month, for instance, the ADP flagged a weaker jobs report, although the official data surprised to the upside.</p><p><blockquote><b>ADP：</b>ADP的私人就业调查令人失望，显示8月份美国经济仅增加了37.4万个就业岗位；继7月份报告的（同样）令人失望的32.6万之后，分析师预计为61.3万。ADP将8月报告疲软归因于德尔塔变异毒株；穆迪分析公司表示，“德尔塔变异毒株似乎削弱了就业市场的复苏”，但“就业增长仍然强劲，但近几个月的速度很好，就业增长仍然与大流行的路径密不可分。”美联储官员最近对达美航空的影响更加乐观，尽管一些官员认为，如果疫情再次变得更加持续，美联储仍然有能力调整政策。<i>注：</i>ADP数据在其方法中使用了以前的BLS官方数据；7月份的BLS数据相对于预期强劲，因此确实暗示了8月份的招聘速度更加不温不火，尽管各部门继续注意到ADP数据与BLS官方数据的信号之间的脆弱关系；例如，上个月，ADP显示就业报告疲软，尽管官方数据出人意料地上升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS</b>: Weekly claims data that coincides with the traditional BLS survey window showed claims falling to a post-pandemic low at 349k; the four-week moving average also declined relative to the July survey window, both boding well for the official jobs report. The continuing claims data which coincides with the traditional BLS survey window also fell to a post-pandemic low at 2.862mln (vs 3.296mln heading into the July jobs data). Pantheon Macroeconomics said that the claims numbers are now finally free of the distortions caused by the automakers' retooling shutdowns and the trend is still falling, which suggests that the surge in COVID cases had not yet triggered an increase in layoffs. \"These data, however, tell us nothing about the pace of gross hiring, and it’s entirely possible that firms’&nbsp; first reaction to the Delta wave has been to slow the pace of recruitment, before taking the more difficult decision to let go existing staff,\" Pantheon said, \"still, these data are encouraging.\" Other desks also point out that the claims data only gives insight into workers being laid off (and is essentially corroborated by Challenger's lay-offs data, which fell to the lowest since June 1997), whereas some argue that the labour market weakness seen of late is likely a function of slowing hiring amid the spread of the Delta variant, which is more reflected in surveys.</p><p><blockquote><b>首次申请失业救济人数</b>：与传统BLS调查窗口一致的每周申请数据显示，申请人数降至大流行后的低点349k；相对于7月份的调查窗口，四周移动平均线也有所下降，这都是官方就业报告的好兆头。与传统的BLS调查窗口一致的持续申领数据也降至大流行后的低点286.2万人（7月份就业数据为329.6万人）。Pantheon Macroeconomics表示，索赔人数现在终于摆脱了汽车制造商重组停工造成的扭曲，而且趋势仍在下降，这表明新冠病例激增尚未引发裁员增加。“然而，这些数据并没有告诉我们有关总招聘速度的任何信息，而且企业对三角洲浪潮的第一反应完全有可能是放慢招聘速度，然后再做出解雇现有员工的更困难的决定，”万神殿表示，“尽管如此，这些数据还是令人鼓舞的。”其他部门还指出，索赔数据只能让人们深入了解被解雇的工人（挑战者的裁员数据基本上证实了这一点，该数据降至1997年6月以来的最低水平），而一些人认为，最近出现的劳动力市场疲软可能是德尔塔变异毒株蔓延导致招聘放缓的结果，这在调查中得到了更多反映。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>BUSINESS SURVEYS:</b>&nbsp;The business survey data only offers a partial glimpse of the labour market this month, given that the Services ISM and Markit's Final Services PMI for August are both set for release after the jobs report (NOTE: the flash services data from Markit showed employment falling by 2.5 points to 50.8). The ISM manufacturing report saw its employment sub-index tumble by almost 4 points into contractionary territory at 49.0, with the survey noting that new surges of COVID-19 were adding to pandemic-related issues, like worker absenteeism, short-term shutdowns due to parts shortages, as well as difficulties in filling open positions and overseas supply chain problems. That said, the report also said that companies were still struggling to meet labour-management plans, but despite a contracting index, there were positive signs compared to recent months, partly mitigating the gloom implied by the index itself. Meanwhile, Markit's manufacturing PMI alluded to employment growth easing as firms struggled to retain staff and find suitable candidates for current vacancies.</p><p><blockquote><b>商业调查：</b>鉴于服务业ISM和Markit 8月份最终服务业PMI均将在就业报告发布后发布，商业调查数据仅提供了本月劳动力市场的部分情况（注：Markit的服务业数据显示就业率下降2.5点至50.8）。ISM制造业报告显示，其就业分类指数下跌近4个点，至49.0的收缩区域，调查指出，新一轮的COVID-19激增加剧了与大流行相关的问题，如工人缺勤、因零部件短缺而导致的短期停工，以及填补空缺职位的困难和海外供应链问题。尽管如此，报告还表示，企业仍在努力满足劳资计划，但尽管指数收缩，但与近几个月相比仍有积极迹象，部分缓解了指数本身隐含的悲观情绪。与此同时，Markit的制造业PMI暗示就业增长放缓，因为企业难以留住员工并为当前职位空缺寻找合适的候选人。</blockquote></p><p> <b>ARGUING FOR A WEAKER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>主张报告弱于预期：</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Delta variant.</b>&nbsp;Unlike in the first month of the covid resurgence, the Delta variant now appears to be affecting services consumption and the labor market. The revival of the CDC’s mask recommendation on July 27 occurred after the July payroll survey week had ended, which would be consistent with a drag in tomorrow’s report despite the strong gains in the previous one. As shown in the left panel of Exhibit 1, restaurant seatings on Open Table pulled back at the turn of the month, falling to 89% of their 2019 levels during the August survey week, compared to 95% in the July survey week. This would argue for a pause or pullback in US leisure and hospitality employment in tomorrow’s report. Additionally, as shown in the right panel, rising infection rates were associated with weaker employment growth in the state cross-section of the Homebase dataset, consistent with a negative Delta impact on labor demand, labor supply, or both.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e6cda55cde31266e2ae8030d47c7fd2\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"499\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>德尔塔变异毒株.</b>与新冠疫情卷土重来的第一个月不同，德尔塔变异毒株现在似乎正在影响服务消费和劳动力市场。CDC于7月27日恢复了口罩建议，发生在7月就业调查周结束后，这将与明天报告的拖累一致，尽管前一份报告强劲上涨。如图表1的左图所示，开放式餐桌上的餐厅座位在本月初有所回落，在8月份调查周降至2019年水平的89%，而7月份调查周为95%。这将在明天的报告中证明美国休闲和酒店业就业暂停或回落。此外，如右图所示，在Homebase数据集的州横截面中，感染率上升与就业增长疲软相关，这与对劳动力需求、劳动力供应或两者的负面Delta影响一致。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Big Data.</b>&nbsp;High-frequency data on the labor market were disappointing between the July and August survey weeks (see Exhibit 2), with all of the indicators we track consistent with a slowdown from the 943k July pace. Only one of the five measures we track indicates an underlying job gain in excess of consensus (Census Small Business Pulse, +0.8mn), though we acknowledge that the track record for Big Data indicators during the crisis has been mixed.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d0f0682fdbf5a6c87c665c82c2c192e\" tg-width=\"820\" tg-height=\"570\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>大数据。</b>7月至8月调查周期间劳动力市场的高频数据令人失望（见图表2），我们跟踪的所有指标都与7月94.3万人的增速放缓一致。我们跟踪的五项指标中只有一项表明潜在的就业增长超过了共识（Census Small Business Pulse，+0.8 0万），尽管我们承认危机期间大数据指标的记录好坏参半。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>ADP.</b>&nbsp;Private sector employment in the ADP report increased by 374k in August, below consensus expectations for a 625k gain. Because the statistical inputs to the ADP model probably boosted their jobs estimate, we believe the underlying ADP sample showed only modest gains in the month.</li> </ul> <b>ARGUING FOR A STRONGER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>ADP.</b>ADP报告中的私营部门就业人数在8月份增加了37.4万人，低于普遍预期的62.5万人。由于ADP模型的统计输入可能提高了他们的就业估计，我们认为基础ADP样本本月仅显示小幅增长。</li></ul><b>主张报告强于预期</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>School reopening.</b>&nbsp;We expect a roughly 150k boost from the reopening of schools, as many teachers and support staff return for the fall school year (some of whom were not working at the end of the prior one). While a pace of reopening similar to August 2020would contribute nearly 300k jobs (mom sa), the level of education employment is 600khigher a year later, and we believe some janitors and support staff did not return due to capacity restrictions and hybrid teaching models.</li>  <li><b>Wind-down of Top-ups.</b>&nbsp;The expiration of federal benefits in some states has boosted labor supply and job-finding rates. Federal benefits were partially or fully curtailed in half of US states (representing 29% of the outstanding job losses since the start of the pandemic) in June and early July. And encouragingly, continuing claims have continued to decline more quickly in these states (by roughly 150k relative to the trend in all other states in the August payroll month).</li>  <li><b>Seasonality.</b>&nbsp;The August seasonal hurdle is relatively low: the BLS adjustment factors generally assume a 100-200k decline in private payrolls (which exclude public schools),compared to +0.5mn over the previous four months.</li>  <li><b>Job availability.</b>&nbsp;The Conference Board labor differential—the difference between the percent of respondents saying jobs are plentiful and those saying jobs are hard to get—decreased by 1.3pt to +42.8 in August but remains at a high level. Additionally, job openings increased by 590k to a record high in June, according to the JOLTS report.</li>  <li><b>Jobless claims.</b>&nbsp;Initial jobless claims edged down during the August payroll month,averaging 355k per week vs. 393k in July. Continuing claims also decreased, averaging2,840k in August vs. 3,140k in July. Across all employee programs including emergency benefits, continuing claims remained roughly unchanged between the payroll survey weeks.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d0f0682fdbf5a6c87c665c82c2c192e\" tg-width=\"820\" tg-height=\"570\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>学校重新开学。</b>我们预计学校重新开放将增加大约15万人，因为许多教师和辅助人员将在秋季学年返回（其中一些人在上一学年结束时没有工作）。尽管与2020年8月相似的重新开放速度将贡献近30万个就业岗位（mom sa），但一年后教育就业水平将达到600khigher，我们认为由于能力限制和混合教学模式，一些看门人和辅助人员并未返回。</li><li><b>充值的逐步减少。</b>一些州联邦福利的到期提振了劳动力供应和就业率。6月和7月初，美国一半州的联邦福利部分或全部削减（占疫情开始以来未解决失业人数的29%）。令人鼓舞的是，这些州的持续申请人数继续下降得更快（相对于8月份所有其他州的趋势，下降了大约15万）。</li><li><b>季节性。</b>8月份的季节性障碍相对较低：BLS调整因素通常假设私人就业人数（不包括公立学校）下降10-20万，而前四个月为+50万。</li><li><b>工作可用性。</b>世界大型企业联合会（Conference Board）劳动力差异——表示工作岗位充足的受访者与表示工作岗位难以获得的受访者之间的差异——在8月份下降了1.3个百分点，至+42.8，但仍处于较高水平。此外，根据JOLTS的报告，6月份职位空缺增加了59万个，创历史新高。</li><li><b>申请失业救济。</b>8月份首次申请失业救济人数小幅下降，平均每周35.5万人，而7月份为39.3万人。持续申请失业救济人数也有所下降，8月份平均为284万人，而7月份为314万人。在包括紧急福利在内的所有员工计划中，在薪资调查周之间，持续申领的人数大致保持不变。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <b>NEUTRAL/MIXED FACTORS:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>中性/混合因子：</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Employer surveys.</b>&nbsp;The employment component of the ISM Manufacturing Index fell into contractionary territory (-3.9pt to 49.0). The employment component of our manufacturing survey tracker also decreased (-0.8pt to 58.3), but the employment component of our services survey tracker increased (+0.1pt to 54.9). The employment component of the GSAI increased by 2.8pt to 70.0.</li>  <li><b>Job cuts.</b>&nbsp;Announced layoffs reported by Challenger, Gray &amp; Christmas decreased by1% in August after decreasing by 13% in July (mom, SA by GS). Layoffs were at the lowest level since 1993.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9338be1c37fd2c7e922fa0e54d4b6aa\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"544\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><b>REACTION:</b>&nbsp;Citi argues that given still net-long broader USD positions, any miss relative to the consensus may buoy Treasuries (as traders reason that the Fed would remain accommodative for longer), and any decline in yields would likely accelerate the Dollar's recent underperformance. \"A<i>'goldilocks'</i>release that entails a slight miss would be most ideal for risk assets heading into an extended weekend,\" but the bigger picture Citi says is that \"the broader taper narrative will not have long-lasting market implications given broad expectations for a Q4 conclusion; nonetheless, the interim run-up will see taper talk as a persistent albeit fading influence on market moves.\"</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>雇主调查。</b>ISM制造业指数的就业部分陷入收缩区间（-3.9点至49.0）。我们的制造业调查跟踪器的就业部分也下降了（-0.8个百分点至58.3），但我们的服务业调查跟踪器的就业部分上升了（+0.1个百分点至54.9）。GSAI的就业部分上升了2.8个百分点，达到70.0。</li><li><b>裁员。</b>Challenger、Gray&amp;Christmas报告的宣布裁员人数继7月份下降13%后，8月份下降了1%（mom，SA by GS）。裁员人数处于1993年以来的最低水平。</li></ul><b>反应：</b>花旗认为，鉴于更广泛的美元头寸仍然是净多头，任何相对于共识的失误都可能提振美国国债（因为交易员认为美联储将在更长时间内保持宽松），而收益率的任何下降都可能加速美元近期的表现不佳。“一个<i>“金发姑娘”</i>对于进入长周末的风险资产来说，略有失误的释放将是最理想的，”但花旗表示，更大的前景是，“鉴于对第四季度结论的广泛预期，更广泛的缩减叙事不会产生长期的市场影响；尽管如此，中期上涨将认为缩减购债规模的言论对市场走势产生持续的影响，尽管这种影响正在减弱。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/august-payrolls-preview-it-will-be-miss-question-how-big\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/august-payrolls-preview-it-will-be-miss-question-how-big","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109595556","content_text":"Summary:The consensus looks for the pace of hiring to cool in August, especially after Wednesday's disastrous ADP report, although the short-term trend rates are still likely to improve; if the consensus is correct, it may offer further accumulated evidence that the labor market is making progress towards the Fed's 'substantial' threshold where it will feel comfortable in scaling back its asset purchases, according toNewsquawk..\nKey expectations:\n\nHeadline non-farm payrolls are expected to print 725k (prev. 943k).\nThe unemployment rate is expected to decline by 0.2% to 5.2%, although this figure may not give a true reflection of the labor market;\nAnalysts will be focused on the participation rate (which rose to 61.7% in July from 61.6% in June vs 63.2% pre-pandemic), the U6 measure of underemployment (which fell to 9.2% in July from 9.8% in June vs 7.0% pre-pandemic), and the employment-population ratio (which rose to 58.4% in July from 58.0% in June vs 61.1% pre-pandemic).\nAverage hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% M/M, down from 0.4% in July, and 4.0% Y/Y.\n\nLabor market gauges have been mixed in August: while ADP's private payrolls disappointed expectations (again), the weekly initial jobless claims and continuing claims fell to a new post-pandemic low. Other metrics, however, offer a gloomier assessment: the ISM and Markit manufacturing surveys allude to a cooling in labor market conditions, with the Delta variant being cited as a reason for the softer pace of hiring. Given that the jobs data will be framed within the context of the Fed's policy reaction, many analysts have been suggesting a'good data is bad for the prospects of further accommodation'playbook, and vice versa; however, this strategy was not seen in wake of the disappointing ADP data this week. Many argue that the market has already moved on from the timing of the taper announcement – assumed to be in Q4 before implementation late this year or early next – and focus is on the pace of the reductions and the duration of the taper, and the August jobs data is not likely to inform the latter two meaningfully.\nWhile Consensus remains surprisingly bullish, Goldman's forecast was recently slashed to just 500K, about a third lower than consensus of 725K. As the bank explains, \"while the seasonal hurdle is relatively low in August, the monthly pace and cross-section of Big Data employment indicators are consistent with a sizeable drag from the Delta variant.\" Specifically, the bank notes that high-frequency data on the labor marketwere disappointing between the July and August survey weeks with all of the indicators we track consistent with a slowdown from the 943k July pace. Only one of the five measures Goldman tracks indicated an underlying job gain in excess of consensus (Census Small Business Pulse, +0.8mn). On the positive side, Goldman expects the reopening of schools to boost job growth by around 150k in tomorrow’s report.\nPOLICY FOCUS: Many Fed officials want to see further accumulated evidence that the labor market is progressing towards its 'substantial further progress' threshold for tapering asset purchases before they commit to a timeline for scaling back these purchases, as well as the modalities of how the taper will look. The August jobs data will be eyed within this context, with analysts suggesting that a weak reading will allow the Fed more time to shape its views, while a stronger-than-expected report will add urgency to a process that some Fed officials want wrapped-up by mid-2022. The Fed has been framing the post-pandemic upside in inflation as transitory, although not everyone is convinced.\nSLACK: Headline non-farm payrolls are expected to print 728k (prev. 943k) in August; private payrolls are seen at 665k (prev. 703k), and government payrolls are seen at 25k (prev. 27k). The unemployment rate is expected to decline to 5.2% from 5.4%; many officials do not think that the headline unemployment rate is truly indicative of the health of the labour market, and in recent months, have been monitoring measures like the participation rate (which rose to 61.7% in July from 61.6% in June vs 63.2% pre-pandemic), the U6 measure of underemployment (which fell to 9.2% in July from 9.8% in June vs 7.0% pre-pandemic), and the employment-population ratio (which rose to 58.4% in July from 58.0% in June vs 61.1% pre-pandemic) which all offer better insight into the progress being made in eroding the slack seen since the pandemic.\nTREND RATES: There are still 5.7mln fewer Americans in employment compared to pre-pandemic levels in February 2020. The Fed does not specifically quantify what 'substantial further progress' means; market participants have argued that, at minimum, it should mean a continuation of current trends, if not an improving trend rate. The short-term trends improved in the July data; the 3-month trend rate stood at 832k in July (vs 607k trend in the 3-months through June); the 6-month trend rate stood at 681k in July (vs the 563k in the 3-months through June); but the 12-month trend rate was 605k in July (vs 670k in the 12-months through June). If the August consensus expectation of 728k was realised, the 3- month and 6-month trend rates would improve again, possibly giving Fed officials evidence of accumulated progress towards the 'substantial further progress' threshold.\nWAGES: Average hourly earnings are seen rising +0.3% M/M (prev. +0.4% M/M), though the annualized measure is seen unchanged at 4.0% Y/Y; the average workweek is expected to be unchanged at 34.8hrs. Analysts will be carefully monitoring the average hourly earnings measures; the argument is that higher prices may stoke consumer inflation expectations, as seen in recent consumer confidence reports, and will result in higher compensation as workers demand more cash amid rising prices; analysts say that this would add to evidence that inflation is more persistent than the Fed is currently admitting to.\nADP: The private payrolls survey by ADP disappointed expectations, showing just 374k jobs were added to the US economy in August; analysts were expecting 613k, following the (also) disappointing 326k it reported in July. ADP attributed the weak August report to the Delta variant; Moody's Analytics said \"the Delta variant appears to have dented the job market recovery,\" but \"job growth remains strong, but well-off the pace of recent months, and job growth remains inextricably tied to the path of the pandemic.\" Fed officials have recently been more sanguine on the impact of Delta, although some officials have argued that the Fed is still capable of tweaking policy if the pandemic once again became more persistent.NOTE:The ADP data uses previous official BLS data within its methodology; that July BLS data was strong relative to expectations, so does allude to a more tepid pace of hiring in August, although desks continue to note the tenuous relationship that the ADP data has in signalling the official BLS data; last month, for instance, the ADP flagged a weaker jobs report, although the official data surprised to the upside.\nINITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: Weekly claims data that coincides with the traditional BLS survey window showed claims falling to a post-pandemic low at 349k; the four-week moving average also declined relative to the July survey window, both boding well for the official jobs report. The continuing claims data which coincides with the traditional BLS survey window also fell to a post-pandemic low at 2.862mln (vs 3.296mln heading into the July jobs data). Pantheon Macroeconomics said that the claims numbers are now finally free of the distortions caused by the automakers' retooling shutdowns and the trend is still falling, which suggests that the surge in COVID cases had not yet triggered an increase in layoffs. \"These data, however, tell us nothing about the pace of gross hiring, and it’s entirely possible that firms’  first reaction to the Delta wave has been to slow the pace of recruitment, before taking the more difficult decision to let go existing staff,\" Pantheon said, \"still, these data are encouraging.\" Other desks also point out that the claims data only gives insight into workers being laid off (and is essentially corroborated by Challenger's lay-offs data, which fell to the lowest since June 1997), whereas some argue that the labour market weakness seen of late is likely a function of slowing hiring amid the spread of the Delta variant, which is more reflected in surveys.\nBUSINESS SURVEYS: The business survey data only offers a partial glimpse of the labour market this month, given that the Services ISM and Markit's Final Services PMI for August are both set for release after the jobs report (NOTE: the flash services data from Markit showed employment falling by 2.5 points to 50.8). The ISM manufacturing report saw its employment sub-index tumble by almost 4 points into contractionary territory at 49.0, with the survey noting that new surges of COVID-19 were adding to pandemic-related issues, like worker absenteeism, short-term shutdowns due to parts shortages, as well as difficulties in filling open positions and overseas supply chain problems. That said, the report also said that companies were still struggling to meet labour-management plans, but despite a contracting index, there were positive signs compared to recent months, partly mitigating the gloom implied by the index itself. Meanwhile, Markit's manufacturing PMI alluded to employment growth easing as firms struggled to retain staff and find suitable candidates for current vacancies.\nARGUING FOR A WEAKER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT:\n\nDelta variant. Unlike in the first month of the covid resurgence, the Delta variant now appears to be affecting services consumption and the labor market. The revival of the CDC’s mask recommendation on July 27 occurred after the July payroll survey week had ended, which would be consistent with a drag in tomorrow’s report despite the strong gains in the previous one. As shown in the left panel of Exhibit 1, restaurant seatings on Open Table pulled back at the turn of the month, falling to 89% of their 2019 levels during the August survey week, compared to 95% in the July survey week. This would argue for a pause or pullback in US leisure and hospitality employment in tomorrow’s report. Additionally, as shown in the right panel, rising infection rates were associated with weaker employment growth in the state cross-section of the Homebase dataset, consistent with a negative Delta impact on labor demand, labor supply, or both.\n\n\n\nBig Data. High-frequency data on the labor market were disappointing between the July and August survey weeks (see Exhibit 2), with all of the indicators we track consistent with a slowdown from the 943k July pace. Only one of the five measures we track indicates an underlying job gain in excess of consensus (Census Small Business Pulse, +0.8mn), though we acknowledge that the track record for Big Data indicators during the crisis has been mixed.\n\n\n\nADP. Private sector employment in the ADP report increased by 374k in August, below consensus expectations for a 625k gain. Because the statistical inputs to the ADP model probably boosted their jobs estimate, we believe the underlying ADP sample showed only modest gains in the month.\n\nARGUING FOR A STRONGER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT\n\nSchool reopening. We expect a roughly 150k boost from the reopening of schools, as many teachers and support staff return for the fall school year (some of whom were not working at the end of the prior one). While a pace of reopening similar to August 2020would contribute nearly 300k jobs (mom sa), the level of education employment is 600khigher a year later, and we believe some janitors and support staff did not return due to capacity restrictions and hybrid teaching models.\nWind-down of Top-ups. The expiration of federal benefits in some states has boosted labor supply and job-finding rates. Federal benefits were partially or fully curtailed in half of US states (representing 29% of the outstanding job losses since the start of the pandemic) in June and early July. And encouragingly, continuing claims have continued to decline more quickly in these states (by roughly 150k relative to the trend in all other states in the August payroll month).\nSeasonality. The August seasonal hurdle is relatively low: the BLS adjustment factors generally assume a 100-200k decline in private payrolls (which exclude public schools),compared to +0.5mn over the previous four months.\nJob availability. The Conference Board labor differential—the difference between the percent of respondents saying jobs are plentiful and those saying jobs are hard to get—decreased by 1.3pt to +42.8 in August but remains at a high level. Additionally, job openings increased by 590k to a record high in June, according to the JOLTS report.\nJobless claims. Initial jobless claims edged down during the August payroll month,averaging 355k per week vs. 393k in July. Continuing claims also decreased, averaging2,840k in August vs. 3,140k in July. Across all employee programs including emergency benefits, continuing claims remained roughly unchanged between the payroll survey weeks.\n\n\nNEUTRAL/MIXED FACTORS:\n\nEmployer surveys. The employment component of the ISM Manufacturing Index fell into contractionary territory (-3.9pt to 49.0). The employment component of our manufacturing survey tracker also decreased (-0.8pt to 58.3), but the employment component of our services survey tracker increased (+0.1pt to 54.9). The employment component of the GSAI increased by 2.8pt to 70.0.\nJob cuts. Announced layoffs reported by Challenger, Gray & Christmas decreased by1% in August after decreasing by 13% in July (mom, SA by GS). Layoffs were at the lowest level since 1993.\n\nREACTION: Citi argues that given still net-long broader USD positions, any miss relative to the consensus may buoy Treasuries (as traders reason that the Fed would remain accommodative for longer), and any decline in yields would likely accelerate the Dollar's recent underperformance. \"A'goldilocks'release that entails a slight miss would be most ideal for risk assets heading into an extended weekend,\" but the bigger picture Citi says is that \"the broader taper narrative will not have long-lasting market implications given broad expectations for a Q4 conclusion; nonetheless, the interim run-up will see taper talk as a persistent albeit fading influence on market moves.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":308,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":812283761,"gmtCreate":1630590400353,"gmtModify":1632471449189,"author":{"id":"3579326417741698","authorId":"3579326417741698","name":"小霖妹子","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579326417741698","authorIdStr":"3579326417741698"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like&nbsp;","listText":"Pls like&nbsp;","text":"Pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/812283761","repostId":"1185257193","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":481,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":812283827,"gmtCreate":1630590378269,"gmtModify":1632471458192,"author":{"id":"3579326417741698","authorId":"3579326417741698","name":"小霖妹子","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579326417741698","authorIdStr":"3579326417741698"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like","listText":"Pls like","text":"Pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/812283827","repostId":"1108690074","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":659,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":816283031,"gmtCreate":1630503781823,"gmtModify":1632475990606,"author":{"id":"3579326417741698","authorId":"3579326417741698","name":"小霖妹子","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579326417741698","authorIdStr":"3579326417741698"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment pls ty","listText":"Like and comment pls ty","text":"Like and comment pls ty","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/816283031","repostId":"1127232048","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":507,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":816289903,"gmtCreate":1630503751602,"gmtModify":1632475993633,"author":{"id":"3579326417741698","authorId":"3579326417741698","name":"小霖妹子","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579326417741698","authorIdStr":"3579326417741698"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow awesome!","listText":"Wow awesome!","text":"Wow awesome!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/816289903","repostId":"1194937312","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1194937312","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1630503428,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1194937312?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-01 21:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple shares rose nearly 2% in early trading<blockquote>苹果股价早盘上涨近2%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194937312","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Apple shares rose nearly 2% in early trading.\n\n\nWolfe Research upgrades Apple from Underperform to P","content":"<p>Apple&nbsp;shares&nbsp;rose&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;2%&nbsp;in&nbsp;early&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价早盘上涨近2%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/074074cd9456d4c1a7776d87b07c5c72\" tg-width=\"885\" tg-height=\"572\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Wolfe Research upgrades Apple&nbsp;from Underperform to Peer Perform on strong iPhone 12 demand trends that should provide a tailwind for the iPhone 13 lineup expected to launch later this month.</li>  <li>Analyst Jeffrey Kvaal says the demand was driven by healthy U.S. operator promotions and Huawei share gains. Additional fuel is coming from the tech giant's supply chain strength, which partially offsets the global component shortage, and the \"elevated\" average selling prices.</li>  <li>Kvaal raises Apple's price target from $135 to $155.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Wolfe Research将苹果从表现不佳上调至同行表现，原因是iPhone 12需求趋势强劲，这将为预计本月晚些时候推出的iPhone 13系列提供推动力。</li><li>分析师Jeffrey Kvaal表示，需求是由美国运营商健康促销和华为份额增长推动的。额外的动力来自这家科技巨头的供应链实力，这部分抵消了全球零部件短缺和“上涨”的平均售价。</li><li>Kvaal将苹果的目标价从135美元上调至155美元。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple shares rose nearly 2% in early trading<blockquote>苹果股价早盘上涨近2%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple shares rose nearly 2% in early trading<blockquote>苹果股价早盘上涨近2%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-01 21:37</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple&nbsp;shares&nbsp;rose&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;2%&nbsp;in&nbsp;early&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价早盘上涨近2%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/074074cd9456d4c1a7776d87b07c5c72\" tg-width=\"885\" tg-height=\"572\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Wolfe Research upgrades Apple&nbsp;from Underperform to Peer Perform on strong iPhone 12 demand trends that should provide a tailwind for the iPhone 13 lineup expected to launch later this month.</li>  <li>Analyst Jeffrey Kvaal says the demand was driven by healthy U.S. operator promotions and Huawei share gains. Additional fuel is coming from the tech giant's supply chain strength, which partially offsets the global component shortage, and the \"elevated\" average selling prices.</li>  <li>Kvaal raises Apple's price target from $135 to $155.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Wolfe Research将苹果从表现不佳上调至同行表现，原因是iPhone 12需求趋势强劲，这将为预计本月晚些时候推出的iPhone 13系列提供推动力。</li><li>分析师Jeffrey Kvaal表示，需求是由美国运营商健康促销和华为份额增长推动的。额外的动力来自这家科技巨头的供应链实力，这部分抵消了全球零部件短缺和“上涨”的平均售价。</li><li>Kvaal将苹果的目标价从135美元上调至155美元。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1194937312","content_text":"Apple shares rose nearly 2% in early trading.\n\n\nWolfe Research upgrades Apple from Underperform to Peer Perform on strong iPhone 12 demand trends that should provide a tailwind for the iPhone 13 lineup expected to launch later this month.\nAnalyst Jeffrey Kvaal says the demand was driven by healthy U.S. operator promotions and Huawei share gains. Additional fuel is coming from the tech giant's supply chain strength, which partially offsets the global component shortage, and the \"elevated\" average selling prices.\nKvaal raises Apple's price target from $135 to $155.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":219,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":894948107,"gmtCreate":1628785601509,"gmtModify":1633689483574,"author":{"id":"3579326417741698","authorId":"3579326417741698","name":"小霖妹子","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579326417741698","authorIdStr":"3579326417741698"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like ty","listText":"Pls like ty","text":"Pls like ty","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/894948107","repostId":"2158268342","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":867,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":894948065,"gmtCreate":1628785569757,"gmtModify":1633689483696,"author":{"id":"3579326417741698","authorId":"3579326417741698","name":"小霖妹子","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579326417741698","authorIdStr":"3579326417741698"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like ty","listText":"Pls like ty","text":"Pls like ty","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/894948065","repostId":"1117889970","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117889970","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628780671,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1117889970?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-12 23:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Disney earnings preview: Growth in Disney+, parks in focus amid reopenings<blockquote>迪士尼盈利预览：Disney+的增长，公园在重新开放中成为焦点</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117889970","media":"finance.yahoo","summary":"Disney (DIS) is set to report fiscal third-quarter results Thursday after market close, with investo","content":"<p>Disney (DIS) is set to report fiscal third-quarter results Thursday after market close, with investors set to closely monitor growth trends in both the entertainment conglomerate's streaming and parks businesses as consumers resumed going out.</p><p><blockquote>迪士尼(DIS)将于周四收盘后公布第三财季业绩，随着消费者恢复外出，投资者将密切关注该娱乐集团流媒体和公园业务的增长趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Here are the main results expected from Disney's report compared to consensus data, compiled by Bloomberg:</p><p><blockquote>以下是彭博社编制的迪士尼报告与共识数据相比的主要预期结果：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Revenue:</b>$16.80 billion expected vs. $11.78 billion Y/Y</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>收入：</b>预期为168亿美元，去年同期为117.8亿美元</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Adjusted earnings per share:</b>55 cents expected vs. 8 cents Y/Y</p><p><blockquote><li><b>调整后每股收益：</b>预期为55美分，同比为8美分</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Disney is expected to return to revenue growth for the first time in five quarters, with visitations at the company's global parks and resorts picking up as vaccinations took place and consumer mobility picked up. By the end of the third quarter, all of Disney's global theme parks had reopened, including Disneyland Paris and Disneyland in California, which had still been closed earlier this year.</p><p><blockquote>迪士尼预计将在五个季度内首次恢复收入增长，随着疫苗接种的进行和消费者流动性的提高，该公司全球公园和度假村的游客数量有所增加。截至第三季度末，迪士尼全球所有主题公园都已重新开放，包括今年早些时候仍处于关闭状态的巴黎迪士尼乐园和加州迪士尼乐园。</blockquote></p><p> Though foot traffic at the parks has been below pre-pandemic levels, the reopenings have enabled the profit engine of Disney's overall business to resume operations more robustly. Disney's parks, experiences, and consumer products business segment is expected to swing to an operating profit of just over $41 million during the quarter, recovering after posting a loss in the same period last year.</p><p><blockquote>尽管公园的客流量一直低于大流行前的水平，但重新开放使迪士尼整体业务的利润引擎能够更强劲地恢复运营。迪士尼的公园、体验和消费品业务部门预计本季度营业利润将略高于4100万美元，在去年同期亏损后有所恢复。</blockquote></p><p> Costs related to addressing pandemic-related health concerns are still expected to be high for Disney, however. Last quarter, Disney said it expected to spend around $1 billion on safety measures for employees, talent and guests in fiscal 2021.</p><p><blockquote>然而，对于迪士尼来说，解决与大流行相关的健康问题的相关成本预计仍然很高。上个季度，迪士尼表示，预计2021财年将花费约10亿美元用于员工、人才和客人的安全措施。</blockquote></p><p> But for investors, the company's nearly two-year-old streaming business Disney+ is crucial and will be under the spotlight during Disney's earnings release and call on Thursday. Over the course of the pandemic, growth at Disney's streaming platform Disney+ helped placate investors as the company's lucrative parks and resorts saw business dry up.</p><p><blockquote>但对于投资者来说，该公司成立近两年的流媒体业务Disney+至关重要，将在迪士尼周四的财报发布和看涨期权上成为人们关注的焦点。在疫情期间，迪士尼流媒体平台Disney+的增长帮助安抚了投资者，因为该公司利润丰厚的公园和度假村业务枯竭。</blockquote></p><p> But as more consumers got vaccinated and went back outdoors, growth at Disney+ began to slow. In May, Disney+ posted its weakest quarter for user growth since its debut, with new subscribers rising by 8.7 million. Still, company has grown notably since launching in late 2019, with subscribers breaking above the 100 million mark in less than two years.</p><p><blockquote>但随着越来越多的消费者接种疫苗并回到户外，Disney+的增长开始放缓。5月份，Disney+公布了自推出以来用户增长最弱的季度，新用户增加了870万。尽管如此，该公司自2019年底推出以来仍取得了显着增长，在不到两年的时间里，用户突破了1亿大关。</blockquote></p><p> The slowdown in streaming has not been limited to Disney. Netflix, the incumbent leader among U.S.-based internet streaming platforms, added just 1.5 million new members in the second quarter of this year. That fell sharply from the more than 10 million paid users added in the same quarter last year, when consumers turned in droves to find entertainment during the height of stay-in-place orders.</p><p><blockquote>流媒体的放缓不仅限于迪士尼。Netflix是美国互联网流媒体平台的现任领导者，今年第二季度仅增加了150万新会员。这一数字较去年同季度新增的超过1000万付费用户大幅下降，当时消费者在留在原地订单高峰期蜂拥而至寻找娱乐。</blockquote></p><p> For Disney, Wall Street analysts expect Disney+ to report another 8.2 million users joined in the third quarter, bringing the total number of subscribers to about 112.8 million. That would compare to 209.2 million at Netflix.</p><p><blockquote>对于迪士尼，华尔街分析师预计Disney+第三季度将新增820万用户，使订阅用户总数达到约1.128亿。相比之下，Netflix的这一数字为2.092亿。</blockquote></p><p> Disney's broad library of content on Disney+ and its other streaming platforms have been the key to its success to date, and updates on its content portfolio are set to be closely watched. ESPN+ grew subscribers by 75% year-over-year last quarter to 13.8 million, with a stronger lineup of live sports helping boost viewership. And the company also announced two new rights deals during its earnings call last quarter, including an enhanced deal with Major League Baseball until 2028 and a new deal with LaLiga, the men’s professional soccer division of the Spanish soccer league.</p><p><blockquote>迪士尼在Disney+和其他流媒体平台上的广泛内容库是其迄今为止成功的关键，其内容组合的更新将受到密切关注。ESPN+上个季度的订户同比增长75%，达到1380万，更强大的体育直播阵容有助于提高收视率。该公司还在上季度的财报看涨期权上宣布了两项新的转播权协议，包括与美国职业棒球大联盟（Major League Baseball）签订的延长协议直至2028年，以及与西班牙足球联盟男子职业足球部门拉利加（LaLiga）签订的新协议。</blockquote></p><p> In terms of films, Marvel names including \"Loki\" and \"Black Widow\" saw success both in theatrical releases and on Disney+, offering another major positive for Disney's business during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>在电影方面，包括《洛基》和《黑寡妇》在内的漫威电影在影院上映和Disney+上都取得了成功，为迪士尼本季度的业务带来了另一个重大利好。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Disney earnings preview: Growth in Disney+, parks in focus amid reopenings<blockquote>迪士尼盈利预览：Disney+的增长，公园在重新开放中成为焦点</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDisney earnings preview: Growth in Disney+, parks in focus amid reopenings<blockquote>迪士尼盈利预览：Disney+的增长，公园在重新开放中成为焦点</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">finance.yahoo</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-12 23:04</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Disney (DIS) is set to report fiscal third-quarter results Thursday after market close, with investors set to closely monitor growth trends in both the entertainment conglomerate's streaming and parks businesses as consumers resumed going out.</p><p><blockquote>迪士尼(DIS)将于周四收盘后公布第三财季业绩，随着消费者恢复外出，投资者将密切关注该娱乐集团流媒体和公园业务的增长趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Here are the main results expected from Disney's report compared to consensus data, compiled by Bloomberg:</p><p><blockquote>以下是彭博社编制的迪士尼报告与共识数据相比的主要预期结果：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Revenue:</b>$16.80 billion expected vs. $11.78 billion Y/Y</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>收入：</b>预期为168亿美元，去年同期为117.8亿美元</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Adjusted earnings per share:</b>55 cents expected vs. 8 cents Y/Y</p><p><blockquote><li><b>调整后每股收益：</b>预期为55美分，同比为8美分</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Disney is expected to return to revenue growth for the first time in five quarters, with visitations at the company's global parks and resorts picking up as vaccinations took place and consumer mobility picked up. By the end of the third quarter, all of Disney's global theme parks had reopened, including Disneyland Paris and Disneyland in California, which had still been closed earlier this year.</p><p><blockquote>迪士尼预计将在五个季度内首次恢复收入增长，随着疫苗接种的进行和消费者流动性的提高，该公司全球公园和度假村的游客数量有所增加。截至第三季度末，迪士尼全球所有主题公园都已重新开放，包括今年早些时候仍处于关闭状态的巴黎迪士尼乐园和加州迪士尼乐园。</blockquote></p><p> Though foot traffic at the parks has been below pre-pandemic levels, the reopenings have enabled the profit engine of Disney's overall business to resume operations more robustly. Disney's parks, experiences, and consumer products business segment is expected to swing to an operating profit of just over $41 million during the quarter, recovering after posting a loss in the same period last year.</p><p><blockquote>尽管公园的客流量一直低于大流行前的水平，但重新开放使迪士尼整体业务的利润引擎能够更强劲地恢复运营。迪士尼的公园、体验和消费品业务部门预计本季度营业利润将略高于4100万美元，在去年同期亏损后有所恢复。</blockquote></p><p> Costs related to addressing pandemic-related health concerns are still expected to be high for Disney, however. Last quarter, Disney said it expected to spend around $1 billion on safety measures for employees, talent and guests in fiscal 2021.</p><p><blockquote>然而，对于迪士尼来说，解决与大流行相关的健康问题的相关成本预计仍然很高。上个季度，迪士尼表示，预计2021财年将花费约10亿美元用于员工、人才和客人的安全措施。</blockquote></p><p> But for investors, the company's nearly two-year-old streaming business Disney+ is crucial and will be under the spotlight during Disney's earnings release and call on Thursday. Over the course of the pandemic, growth at Disney's streaming platform Disney+ helped placate investors as the company's lucrative parks and resorts saw business dry up.</p><p><blockquote>但对于投资者来说，该公司成立近两年的流媒体业务Disney+至关重要，将在迪士尼周四的财报发布和看涨期权上成为人们关注的焦点。在疫情期间，迪士尼流媒体平台Disney+的增长帮助安抚了投资者，因为该公司利润丰厚的公园和度假村业务枯竭。</blockquote></p><p> But as more consumers got vaccinated and went back outdoors, growth at Disney+ began to slow. In May, Disney+ posted its weakest quarter for user growth since its debut, with new subscribers rising by 8.7 million. Still, company has grown notably since launching in late 2019, with subscribers breaking above the 100 million mark in less than two years.</p><p><blockquote>但随着越来越多的消费者接种疫苗并回到户外，Disney+的增长开始放缓。5月份，Disney+公布了自推出以来用户增长最弱的季度，新用户增加了870万。尽管如此，该公司自2019年底推出以来仍取得了显着增长，在不到两年的时间里，用户突破了1亿大关。</blockquote></p><p> The slowdown in streaming has not been limited to Disney. Netflix, the incumbent leader among U.S.-based internet streaming platforms, added just 1.5 million new members in the second quarter of this year. That fell sharply from the more than 10 million paid users added in the same quarter last year, when consumers turned in droves to find entertainment during the height of stay-in-place orders.</p><p><blockquote>流媒体的放缓不仅限于迪士尼。Netflix是美国互联网流媒体平台的现任领导者，今年第二季度仅增加了150万新会员。这一数字较去年同季度新增的超过1000万付费用户大幅下降，当时消费者在留在原地订单高峰期蜂拥而至寻找娱乐。</blockquote></p><p> For Disney, Wall Street analysts expect Disney+ to report another 8.2 million users joined in the third quarter, bringing the total number of subscribers to about 112.8 million. That would compare to 209.2 million at Netflix.</p><p><blockquote>对于迪士尼，华尔街分析师预计Disney+第三季度将新增820万用户，使订阅用户总数达到约1.128亿。相比之下，Netflix的这一数字为2.092亿。</blockquote></p><p> Disney's broad library of content on Disney+ and its other streaming platforms have been the key to its success to date, and updates on its content portfolio are set to be closely watched. ESPN+ grew subscribers by 75% year-over-year last quarter to 13.8 million, with a stronger lineup of live sports helping boost viewership. And the company also announced two new rights deals during its earnings call last quarter, including an enhanced deal with Major League Baseball until 2028 and a new deal with LaLiga, the men’s professional soccer division of the Spanish soccer league.</p><p><blockquote>迪士尼在Disney+和其他流媒体平台上的广泛内容库是其迄今为止成功的关键，其内容组合的更新将受到密切关注。ESPN+上个季度的订户同比增长75%，达到1380万，更强大的体育直播阵容有助于提高收视率。该公司还在上季度的财报看涨期权上宣布了两项新的转播权协议，包括与美国职业棒球大联盟（Major League Baseball）签订的延长协议直至2028年，以及与西班牙足球联盟男子职业足球部门拉利加（LaLiga）签订的新协议。</blockquote></p><p> In terms of films, Marvel names including \"Loki\" and \"Black Widow\" saw success both in theatrical releases and on Disney+, offering another major positive for Disney's business during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>在电影方面，包括《洛基》和《黑寡妇》在内的漫威电影在影院上映和Disney+上都取得了成功，为迪士尼本季度的业务带来了另一个重大利好。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/disney-earnings-q3-2021-145909103.html\">finance.yahoo</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DIS":"迪士尼"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/disney-earnings-q3-2021-145909103.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117889970","content_text":"Disney (DIS) is set to report fiscal third-quarter results Thursday after market close, with investors set to closely monitor growth trends in both the entertainment conglomerate's streaming and parks businesses as consumers resumed going out.\nHere are the main results expected from Disney's report compared to consensus data, compiled by Bloomberg:\n\nRevenue:$16.80 billion expected vs. $11.78 billion Y/Y\nAdjusted earnings per share:55 cents expected vs. 8 cents Y/Y\n\nDisney is expected to return to revenue growth for the first time in five quarters, with visitations at the company's global parks and resorts picking up as vaccinations took place and consumer mobility picked up. By the end of the third quarter, all of Disney's global theme parks had reopened, including Disneyland Paris and Disneyland in California, which had still been closed earlier this year.\nThough foot traffic at the parks has been below pre-pandemic levels, the reopenings have enabled the profit engine of Disney's overall business to resume operations more robustly. Disney's parks, experiences, and consumer products business segment is expected to swing to an operating profit of just over $41 million during the quarter, recovering after posting a loss in the same period last year.\nCosts related to addressing pandemic-related health concerns are still expected to be high for Disney, however. Last quarter, Disney said it expected to spend around $1 billion on safety measures for employees, talent and guests in fiscal 2021.\nBut for investors, the company's nearly two-year-old streaming business Disney+ is crucial and will be under the spotlight during Disney's earnings release and call on Thursday. Over the course of the pandemic, growth at Disney's streaming platform Disney+ helped placate investors as the company's lucrative parks and resorts saw business dry up.\nBut as more consumers got vaccinated and went back outdoors, growth at Disney+ began to slow. In May, Disney+ posted its weakest quarter for user growth since its debut, with new subscribers rising by 8.7 million. Still, company has grown notably since launching in late 2019, with subscribers breaking above the 100 million mark in less than two years.\nThe slowdown in streaming has not been limited to Disney. Netflix, the incumbent leader among U.S.-based internet streaming platforms, added just 1.5 million new members in the second quarter of this year. That fell sharply from the more than 10 million paid users added in the same quarter last year, when consumers turned in droves to find entertainment during the height of stay-in-place orders.\nFor Disney, Wall Street analysts expect Disney+ to report another 8.2 million users joined in the third quarter, bringing the total number of subscribers to about 112.8 million. That would compare to 209.2 million at Netflix.\nDisney's broad library of content on Disney+ and its other streaming platforms have been the key to its success to date, and updates on its content portfolio are set to be closely watched. ESPN+ grew subscribers by 75% year-over-year last quarter to 13.8 million, with a stronger lineup of live sports helping boost viewership. And the company also announced two new rights deals during its earnings call last quarter, including an enhanced deal with Major League Baseball until 2028 and a new deal with LaLiga, the men’s professional soccer division of the Spanish soccer league.\nIn terms of films, Marvel names including \"Loki\" and \"Black Widow\" saw success both in theatrical releases and on Disney+, offering another major positive for Disney's business during the quarter.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DIS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":416,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":806311363,"gmtCreate":1627632213252,"gmtModify":1633757598537,"author":{"id":"3579326417741698","authorId":"3579326417741698","name":"小霖妹子","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579326417741698","idStr":"3579326417741698"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like!","listText":"Pls like!","text":"Pls like!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/806311363","repostId":"1174729262","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":196,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":894941238,"gmtCreate":1628785540124,"gmtModify":1633689484043,"author":{"id":"3579326417741698","authorId":"3579326417741698","name":"小霖妹子","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579326417741698","idStr":"3579326417741698"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like ty","listText":"Pls like ty","text":"Pls like ty","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/894941238","repostId":"2158268958","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2158268958","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1628781141,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2158268958?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-12 23:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"F-star's FS118 Development Program To Include Checkpoint Naïve Cancer Patients<blockquote>F-star的FS118开发计划将纳入未接受检查点的癌症患者</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2158268958","media":"Benzinga","summary":"\n","content":"<p><ul>  <li><b>F-star Therapeutics Inc</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:FSTX) has&nbsp;expanded its clinical development strategy&nbsp;for FS118 into checkpoint inhibitor naïve patients.</li>  <li>The new study will start in 2H of 2021 and include biomarker enriched subsets of patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL).</li>  <li>FS118 is a bispecific antibody targeting LAG-3 and PD-L1.</li>  <li>In addition to the expanded FS118 clinical strategy, F-star has three other ongoing programs.</li>  <li>F-Star ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $81.6 million.</li>  <li><b>Price Action:</b>&nbsp;FSTX shares are up 4.92% at $6.93 during the market session on the last check Thursday.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>F-star治疗公司</b>（纳斯达克：FSTX）已将FS118的临床开发策略扩展到未接受检查点抑制剂治疗的患者。</li><li>这项新研究将于2021年2H开始，包括非小细胞肺癌（NSCLC）和弥漫性大B细胞淋巴瘤（DLBCL）患者的生物标志物富集亚群。</li><li>FS118是一种靶向LAG-3和PD-L1的双特异性抗体。</li><li>除了扩展的FS118临床策略外，F-star还有其他三个正在进行的项目。</li><li>F-Star本季度末的现金和现金等价物为8160万美元。</li><li><b>价格走势：</b>周四最后一次检查时，FSTX股价上涨4.92%，至6.93美元。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>F-star's FS118 Development Program To Include Checkpoint Naïve Cancer Patients<blockquote>F-star的FS118开发计划将纳入未接受检查点的癌症患者</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nF-star's FS118 Development Program To Include Checkpoint Naïve Cancer Patients<blockquote>F-star的FS118开发计划将纳入未接受检查点的癌症患者</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-12 23:12</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><ul>  <li><b>F-star Therapeutics Inc</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:FSTX) has&nbsp;expanded its clinical development strategy&nbsp;for FS118 into checkpoint inhibitor naïve patients.</li>  <li>The new study will start in 2H of 2021 and include biomarker enriched subsets of patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL).</li>  <li>FS118 is a bispecific antibody targeting LAG-3 and PD-L1.</li>  <li>In addition to the expanded FS118 clinical strategy, F-star has three other ongoing programs.</li>  <li>F-Star ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $81.6 million.</li>  <li><b>Price Action:</b>&nbsp;FSTX shares are up 4.92% at $6.93 during the market session on the last check Thursday.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>F-star治疗公司</b>（纳斯达克：FSTX）已将FS118的临床开发策略扩展到未接受检查点抑制剂治疗的患者。</li><li>这项新研究将于2021年2H开始，包括非小细胞肺癌（NSCLC）和弥漫性大B细胞淋巴瘤（DLBCL）患者的生物标志物富集亚群。</li><li>FS118是一种靶向LAG-3和PD-L1的双特异性抗体。</li><li>除了扩展的FS118临床策略外，F-star还有其他三个正在进行的项目。</li><li>F-Star本季度末的现金和现金等价物为8160万美元。</li><li><b>价格走势：</b>周四最后一次检查时，FSTX股价上涨4.92%，至6.93美元。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"FSTX":"F-star Therapeutics, Inc. "},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2158268958","content_text":"F-star Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ:FSTX) has expanded its clinical development strategy for FS118 into checkpoint inhibitor naïve patients.\nThe new study will start in 2H of 2021 and include biomarker enriched subsets of patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL).\nFS118 is a bispecific antibody targeting LAG-3 and PD-L1.\nIn addition to the expanded FS118 clinical strategy, F-star has three other ongoing programs.\nF-Star ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $81.6 million.\nPrice Action: FSTX shares are up 4.92% at $6.93 during the market session on the last check Thursday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"FSTX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":236,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":886067754,"gmtCreate":1631540082478,"gmtModify":1631890287349,"author":{"id":"3579326417741698","authorId":"3579326417741698","name":"小霖妹子","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579326417741698","idStr":"3579326417741698"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/886067754","repostId":"1112189353","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112189353","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1631540038,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1112189353?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-13 21:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. stocks open solidly higher Monday following worst weekly decline in about 3 months<blockquote>继约三个月来最严重单周跌幅后，美国股市周一大幅高开</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112189353","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained Monday as U.S. stock indexes rebounded from a losing streak.","content":"<p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained Monday as U.S. stock indexes rebounded from a losing streak.</p><p><blockquote>随着美国股指从连跌中反弹，道琼斯工业平均指数周一上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow jumped about 240 points, or 0.7%. The S&amp;P 500 gained 0.7% and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.6%.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯指数上涨约240点，涨幅0.7%。标普500上涨0.7%，纳斯达克综合指数上涨0.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99d05df35cd84a09bab95f1d02ff1457\" tg-width=\"1052\" tg-height=\"446\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The bounce comes after the Dow and S&amp;P posting a fifth straight day of losses, while the Nasdaq Composite registered its third consecutive negative session. For the S&amp;P 500, that was its worst losing streak since February 22.</p><p><blockquote>此次反弹是在道琼斯指数和标准普尔指数连续第五天下跌，而纳斯达克综合指数连续第三个交易日下跌之后发生的。对于标普500来说，这是自2月22日以来最严重的连跌。</blockquote></p><p> \"With supply chain disruptions, COVID-19 variant risk, stickier than expected inflation along with other uncertainties that challenge the present recovery's path toward a sustainable economic expansion the age old adage 'progress not perfection' among current developments appears best suited for investors to focus on for now,\" Oppenheimer's John Stoltzfus said in a note Monday.</p><p><blockquote>“由于供应链中断、COVID-19变种风险、通胀粘性强于预期以及其他挑战当前复苏通往可持续经济扩张之路的不确定性，当前发展中的古老格言‘进步而非完美’似乎最适合投资者关注目前，”奥本海默的约翰·斯托尔茨福斯周一在一份报告中表示。</blockquote></p><p> Covid cases appear to be trending lower in the U.S. with a 7-day average through Friday of about 136,000, down from 157,000 average new cases at the end of August, according to the CDC. Pfizer's Covid vaccine could be&nbsp;authorized for children by the end of next month, sources familiar told Reuters.</p><p><blockquote>根据CDC的数据，美国的Covid病例似乎呈下降趋势，截至周五的7天平均新增病例约为136,000例，低于8月底的平均157,000例。知情人士告诉路透社，辉瑞的Covid疫苗可能会在下月底被授权用于儿童。</blockquote></p><p> Names linked to the reopening led the gains in premarket trading. Delta Air Lines and United Airlines shares gained. Carnival Corp edged higher. Traditional cyclical plays GM and Citigroup rose. MGM shares rose after an&nbsp;upgrade by Bernstein to outperform.</p><p><blockquote>与重新开放相关的名字领涨盘前交易。达美航空和联合航空股价上涨。嘉年华公司小幅走高。传统周期性股票通用汽车和花旗集团上涨。伯恩斯坦将米高梅股价上调至跑赢大盘后上涨。</blockquote></p><p> \"Vaccinations plus immunity should mean cases eventually fall. Full reopening and related spending has been pushed out,\" wrote UBS strategist Keith Parker, who sees the S&amp;P 500 gaining another 4% through year-end.</p><p><blockquote>瑞银策略师基思·帕克(Keith Parker)写道：“疫苗接种加上免疫力应该意味着病例最终会下降。全面重新开放和相关支出已被推迟。”他预计标普500到年底将再上涨4%。</blockquote></p><p> Traditional cyclical plays GM and Citigroup rose Monday. MGM shares rose after an&nbsp;upgrade by Bernstein to outperform.</p><p><blockquote>传统周期性股票通用汽车和花旗集团周一上涨。伯恩斯坦将米高梅股价上调至跑赢大盘后上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Tech shares gained as well. Apple moved higher ahead of a&nbsp;launch event Tuesday&nbsp;where the company is expected to introduce new iPhones.</p><p><blockquote>科技股也上涨。苹果在周二的发布会之前股价走高，预计该公司将在会上推出新款iPhone。</blockquote></p><p> Nike shares ticked lower after&nbsp;BTIG downgraded the stock&nbsp;citing supply chain challenges caused by the pandemic. Production issues could significantly impact Nike’s holiday sales, BTIG said.</p><p><blockquote>BTIG以疫情造成的供应链挑战为由下调耐克股票评级后，耐克股价小幅走低。BTIG表示，生产问题可能会严重影响耐克的假日销售。</blockquote></p><p> “Supply bottlenecks, inventory shortages, higher commodity prices, and higher shipping rates have all contributed to higher input costs,” noted Charlie Ripley, senior investment strategist for Allianz Investment Management.</p><p><blockquote>安联投资管理公司高级投资策略师查理·里普利指出：“供应瓶颈、库存短缺、大宗商品价格上涨和运费上涨都导致了投入成本上升。”</blockquote></p><p> Inflation fears have contributed to the market’s recent losses. Data released Friday showed that&nbsp;producer prices rose&nbsp;0.7% in August and 8.3% year over year, which was the biggest annual increase since records were first kept in November 2010.</p><p><blockquote>通胀担忧导致了市场近期的下跌。周五公布的数据显示，8月份生产者价格上涨0.7%，同比上涨8.3%，这是自2010年11月有记录以来的最大年度涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> ″[Friday’s] data on wholesale prices should be eye-opening for the Fed, as inflation pressures still don’t appear to be easing and will likely continue to be felt by the consumer in the coming months,” Ripley said.</p><p><blockquote>里普利表示：“[周五的]批发价格数据应该会让美联储大开眼界，因为通胀压力似乎仍未缓解，并且消费者可能会在未来几个月继续感受到通胀压力。”</blockquote></p><p> The closely watched consumer price index will be released on Tuesday, at which point the Street will see how much of the heightened costs are being passed along to consumers. Economists surveyed by FactSet are expecting the reading to show that consumer prices jumped&nbsp;5.3% on an annual pacein August. Retail sales data will be released later in the week.</p><p><blockquote>备受关注的消费者价格指数将于周二发布，届时华尔街将看到有多少上涨的成本被转嫁给了消费者。FactSet调查的经济学家预计，8月份消费者价格同比上涨5.零售销售数据将于本周晚些时候公布。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks have been under pressure since&nbsp;August’s jobs report, released by the Labor Department on September 3, missed expectations. Worries are rippling through the market that the pandemic will continue to hamper economic growth while hot inflation will prompt the Federal Reserve to take action.</p><p><blockquote>自美国劳工部9月3日发布的8月份就业报告未达预期以来，股市一直承压。市场普遍担心疫情将继续阻碍经济增长，而高通胀将促使美联储采取行动。</blockquote></p><p> “The negative impact of the delta variant on the cyclical trade is clear,” noted strategists at Jefferies. “It is increasingly evident that the impact of delta has delayed any Federal Reserve attempt at tapering, just as it has given fresh momentum to the Big Tech stocks with growth outperforming value so far this quarter.”</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞策略师指出：“德尔塔变异毒株对周期性交易的负面影响是显而易见的。”“越来越明显的是，达美航空的影响推迟了美联储缩减规模的任何尝试，正如它为本季度迄今为止增长跑赢价值的大型科技股提供了新的动力一样。”</blockquote></p><p> The Fed will begin its two-day policy meeting on September 21, where investors will be looking for clues about the central bank’s bond-buying program.</p><p><blockquote>美联储将于9月21日开始为期两天的政策会议，届时投资者将寻找有关央行债券购买计划的线索。</blockquote></p><p> Despite last week’s losses, the major averages are still relatively close to their record levels. the Dow is about 2% from its all-time high, while the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are under 2% below their high-water marks.</p><p><blockquote>尽管上周有所下跌，但主要股指仍相对接近创纪录水平。道琼斯指数较历史高点下跌约2%，而标普500和纳斯达克综合指数较高点下跌不到2%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. stocks open solidly higher Monday following worst weekly decline in about 3 months<blockquote>继约三个月来最严重单周跌幅后，美国股市周一大幅高开</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. stocks open solidly higher Monday following worst weekly decline in about 3 months<blockquote>继约三个月来最严重单周跌幅后，美国股市周一大幅高开</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-13 21:33</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained Monday as U.S. stock indexes rebounded from a losing streak.</p><p><blockquote>随着美国股指从连跌中反弹，道琼斯工业平均指数周一上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow jumped about 240 points, or 0.7%. The S&amp;P 500 gained 0.7% and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.6%.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯指数上涨约240点，涨幅0.7%。标普500上涨0.7%，纳斯达克综合指数上涨0.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99d05df35cd84a09bab95f1d02ff1457\" tg-width=\"1052\" tg-height=\"446\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The bounce comes after the Dow and S&amp;P posting a fifth straight day of losses, while the Nasdaq Composite registered its third consecutive negative session. For the S&amp;P 500, that was its worst losing streak since February 22.</p><p><blockquote>此次反弹是在道琼斯指数和标准普尔指数连续第五天下跌，而纳斯达克综合指数连续第三个交易日下跌之后发生的。对于标普500来说，这是自2月22日以来最严重的连跌。</blockquote></p><p> \"With supply chain disruptions, COVID-19 variant risk, stickier than expected inflation along with other uncertainties that challenge the present recovery's path toward a sustainable economic expansion the age old adage 'progress not perfection' among current developments appears best suited for investors to focus on for now,\" Oppenheimer's John Stoltzfus said in a note Monday.</p><p><blockquote>“由于供应链中断、COVID-19变种风险、通胀粘性强于预期以及其他挑战当前复苏通往可持续经济扩张之路的不确定性，当前发展中的古老格言‘进步而非完美’似乎最适合投资者关注目前，”奥本海默的约翰·斯托尔茨福斯周一在一份报告中表示。</blockquote></p><p> Covid cases appear to be trending lower in the U.S. with a 7-day average through Friday of about 136,000, down from 157,000 average new cases at the end of August, according to the CDC. Pfizer's Covid vaccine could be&nbsp;authorized for children by the end of next month, sources familiar told Reuters.</p><p><blockquote>根据CDC的数据，美国的Covid病例似乎呈下降趋势，截至周五的7天平均新增病例约为136,000例，低于8月底的平均157,000例。知情人士告诉路透社，辉瑞的Covid疫苗可能会在下月底被授权用于儿童。</blockquote></p><p> Names linked to the reopening led the gains in premarket trading. Delta Air Lines and United Airlines shares gained. Carnival Corp edged higher. Traditional cyclical plays GM and Citigroup rose. MGM shares rose after an&nbsp;upgrade by Bernstein to outperform.</p><p><blockquote>与重新开放相关的名字领涨盘前交易。达美航空和联合航空股价上涨。嘉年华公司小幅走高。传统周期性股票通用汽车和花旗集团上涨。伯恩斯坦将米高梅股价上调至跑赢大盘后上涨。</blockquote></p><p> \"Vaccinations plus immunity should mean cases eventually fall. Full reopening and related spending has been pushed out,\" wrote UBS strategist Keith Parker, who sees the S&amp;P 500 gaining another 4% through year-end.</p><p><blockquote>瑞银策略师基思·帕克(Keith Parker)写道：“疫苗接种加上免疫力应该意味着病例最终会下降。全面重新开放和相关支出已被推迟。”他预计标普500到年底将再上涨4%。</blockquote></p><p> Traditional cyclical plays GM and Citigroup rose Monday. MGM shares rose after an&nbsp;upgrade by Bernstein to outperform.</p><p><blockquote>传统周期性股票通用汽车和花旗集团周一上涨。伯恩斯坦将米高梅股价上调至跑赢大盘后上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Tech shares gained as well. Apple moved higher ahead of a&nbsp;launch event Tuesday&nbsp;where the company is expected to introduce new iPhones.</p><p><blockquote>科技股也上涨。苹果在周二的发布会之前股价走高，预计该公司将在会上推出新款iPhone。</blockquote></p><p> Nike shares ticked lower after&nbsp;BTIG downgraded the stock&nbsp;citing supply chain challenges caused by the pandemic. Production issues could significantly impact Nike’s holiday sales, BTIG said.</p><p><blockquote>BTIG以疫情造成的供应链挑战为由下调耐克股票评级后，耐克股价小幅走低。BTIG表示，生产问题可能会严重影响耐克的假日销售。</blockquote></p><p> “Supply bottlenecks, inventory shortages, higher commodity prices, and higher shipping rates have all contributed to higher input costs,” noted Charlie Ripley, senior investment strategist for Allianz Investment Management.</p><p><blockquote>安联投资管理公司高级投资策略师查理·里普利指出：“供应瓶颈、库存短缺、大宗商品价格上涨和运费上涨都导致了投入成本上升。”</blockquote></p><p> Inflation fears have contributed to the market’s recent losses. Data released Friday showed that&nbsp;producer prices rose&nbsp;0.7% in August and 8.3% year over year, which was the biggest annual increase since records were first kept in November 2010.</p><p><blockquote>通胀担忧导致了市场近期的下跌。周五公布的数据显示，8月份生产者价格上涨0.7%，同比上涨8.3%，这是自2010年11月有记录以来的最大年度涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> ″[Friday’s] data on wholesale prices should be eye-opening for the Fed, as inflation pressures still don’t appear to be easing and will likely continue to be felt by the consumer in the coming months,” Ripley said.</p><p><blockquote>里普利表示：“[周五的]批发价格数据应该会让美联储大开眼界，因为通胀压力似乎仍未缓解，并且消费者可能会在未来几个月继续感受到通胀压力。”</blockquote></p><p> The closely watched consumer price index will be released on Tuesday, at which point the Street will see how much of the heightened costs are being passed along to consumers. Economists surveyed by FactSet are expecting the reading to show that consumer prices jumped&nbsp;5.3% on an annual pacein August. Retail sales data will be released later in the week.</p><p><blockquote>备受关注的消费者价格指数将于周二发布，届时华尔街将看到有多少上涨的成本被转嫁给了消费者。FactSet调查的经济学家预计，8月份消费者价格同比上涨5.零售销售数据将于本周晚些时候公布。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks have been under pressure since&nbsp;August’s jobs report, released by the Labor Department on September 3, missed expectations. Worries are rippling through the market that the pandemic will continue to hamper economic growth while hot inflation will prompt the Federal Reserve to take action.</p><p><blockquote>自美国劳工部9月3日发布的8月份就业报告未达预期以来，股市一直承压。市场普遍担心疫情将继续阻碍经济增长，而高通胀将促使美联储采取行动。</blockquote></p><p> “The negative impact of the delta variant on the cyclical trade is clear,” noted strategists at Jefferies. “It is increasingly evident that the impact of delta has delayed any Federal Reserve attempt at tapering, just as it has given fresh momentum to the Big Tech stocks with growth outperforming value so far this quarter.”</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞策略师指出：“德尔塔变异毒株对周期性交易的负面影响是显而易见的。”“越来越明显的是，达美航空的影响推迟了美联储缩减规模的任何尝试，正如它为本季度迄今为止增长跑赢价值的大型科技股提供了新的动力一样。”</blockquote></p><p> The Fed will begin its two-day policy meeting on September 21, where investors will be looking for clues about the central bank’s bond-buying program.</p><p><blockquote>美联储将于9月21日开始为期两天的政策会议，届时投资者将寻找有关央行债券购买计划的线索。</blockquote></p><p> Despite last week’s losses, the major averages are still relatively close to their record levels. the Dow is about 2% from its all-time high, while the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are under 2% below their high-water marks.</p><p><blockquote>尽管上周有所下跌，但主要股指仍相对接近创纪录水平。道琼斯指数较历史高点下跌约2%，而标普500和纳斯达克综合指数较高点下跌不到2%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112189353","content_text":"The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained Monday as U.S. stock indexes rebounded from a losing streak.\nThe Dow jumped about 240 points, or 0.7%. The S&P 500 gained 0.7% and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.6%.\n\nThe bounce comes after the Dow and S&P posting a fifth straight day of losses, while the Nasdaq Composite registered its third consecutive negative session. For the S&P 500, that was its worst losing streak since February 22.\n\"With supply chain disruptions, COVID-19 variant risk, stickier than expected inflation along with other uncertainties that challenge the present recovery's path toward a sustainable economic expansion the age old adage 'progress not perfection' among current developments appears best suited for investors to focus on for now,\" Oppenheimer's John Stoltzfus said in a note Monday.\nCovid cases appear to be trending lower in the U.S. with a 7-day average through Friday of about 136,000, down from 157,000 average new cases at the end of August, according to the CDC. Pfizer's Covid vaccine could be authorized for children by the end of next month, sources familiar told Reuters.\nNames linked to the reopening led the gains in premarket trading. Delta Air Lines and United Airlines shares gained. Carnival Corp edged higher. Traditional cyclical plays GM and Citigroup rose. MGM shares rose after an upgrade by Bernstein to outperform.\n\"Vaccinations plus immunity should mean cases eventually fall. Full reopening and related spending has been pushed out,\" wrote UBS strategist Keith Parker, who sees the S&P 500 gaining another 4% through year-end.\nTraditional cyclical plays GM and Citigroup rose Monday. MGM shares rose after an upgrade by Bernstein to outperform.\nTech shares gained as well. Apple moved higher ahead of a launch event Tuesday where the company is expected to introduce new iPhones.\nNike shares ticked lower after BTIG downgraded the stock citing supply chain challenges caused by the pandemic. Production issues could significantly impact Nike’s holiday sales, BTIG said.\n“Supply bottlenecks, inventory shortages, higher commodity prices, and higher shipping rates have all contributed to higher input costs,” noted Charlie Ripley, senior investment strategist for Allianz Investment Management.\nInflation fears have contributed to the market’s recent losses. Data released Friday showed that producer prices rose 0.7% in August and 8.3% year over year, which was the biggest annual increase since records were first kept in November 2010.\n″[Friday’s] data on wholesale prices should be eye-opening for the Fed, as inflation pressures still don’t appear to be easing and will likely continue to be felt by the consumer in the coming months,” Ripley said.\nThe closely watched consumer price index will be released on Tuesday, at which point the Street will see how much of the heightened costs are being passed along to consumers. Economists surveyed by FactSet are expecting the reading to show that consumer prices jumped 5.3% on an annual pacein August. Retail sales data will be released later in the week.\nStocks have been under pressure since August’s jobs report, released by the Labor Department on September 3, missed expectations. Worries are rippling through the market that the pandemic will continue to hamper economic growth while hot inflation will prompt the Federal Reserve to take action.\n“The negative impact of the delta variant on the cyclical trade is clear,” noted strategists at Jefferies. “It is increasingly evident that the impact of delta has delayed any Federal Reserve attempt at tapering, just as it has given fresh momentum to the Big Tech stocks with growth outperforming value so far this quarter.”\nThe Fed will begin its two-day policy meeting on September 21, where investors will be looking for clues about the central bank’s bond-buying program.\nDespite last week’s losses, the major averages are still relatively close to their record levels. the Dow is about 2% from its all-time high, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are under 2% below their high-water marks.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1389,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":869988360,"gmtCreate":1632235194050,"gmtModify":1632801868246,"author":{"id":"3579326417741698","authorId":"3579326417741698","name":"小霖妹子","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579326417741698","idStr":"3579326417741698"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/869988360","repostId":"1103252137","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1477,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":881213907,"gmtCreate":1631342460209,"gmtModify":1631890287370,"author":{"id":"3579326417741698","authorId":"3579326417741698","name":"小霖妹子","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579326417741698","idStr":"3579326417741698"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like","listText":"Pls like","text":"Pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/881213907","repostId":"1147045390","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147045390","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631321547,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1147045390?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-11 08:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Apple’s Risk Is Limited<blockquote>为什么苹果的风险有限</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147045390","media":"Barrons","summary":"Apple faces real, but limited, risk to its revenue and profits from Friday’s ruling that requires it to allow developers to offer alternative payment methods for purchases made in apps downloaded through the Apple app store.In a case filed by Fortnite publisher Epic Games, U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers issued a permanent injunction that requires Apple  to allow developers the option to include links to alternative payment methods in their apps. Apple’s own payment system takes a 30%","content":"<p>Apple faces real, but limited, risk to its revenue and profits from Friday’s ruling that requires it to allow developers to offer alternative payment methods for purchases made in apps downloaded through the Apple app store.</p><p><blockquote>周五的裁决要求苹果允许开发者为通过苹果应用商店下载的应用程序中的购买提供替代支付方式，这给其收入和利润带来了真实但有限的风险。</blockquote></p><p> In a case filed by Fortnite publisher Epic Games, U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers issued a permanent injunction that requires Apple (ticker: AAPL) to allow developers the option to include links to alternative payment methods in their apps. Apple’s own payment system takes a 30% cut from large developers.</p><p><blockquote>在堡垒之夜发行商Epic Games提起的案件中，美国地区法官Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers发布了一项永久禁令，要求苹果（股票代码：AAPL）允许开发者选择在其应用程序中包含替代支付方式的链接。苹果自己的支付系统从大型开发商那里收取30%的提成。</blockquote></p><p> Data from the app tracker SensorTower shows that in calendar 2020, Apple had overall revenue from the App Store of $72.3 billion, generating an estimated $21.7 billion in fees, or about 7% of Apple’s overall revenues. That includes $21 billion in spending in the U.S., generating about $6.3 billion in fees, or about 2% of annualized revenues.</p><p><blockquote>应用追踪器SensorTower的数据显示，2020年，苹果从App Store获得的总收入为723亿美元，产生的费用估计为217亿美元，约占苹果总收入的7%。其中包括在美国的210亿美元支出，产生约63亿美元的费用，约占年收入的2%。</blockquote></p><p> SensorTower estimates that mobile-game spending in the App Store in calendar 2020 was $47.6 billion, generating $14.3 billion in fees, or a little under 5% of Apple’s total revenues.</p><p><blockquote>SensorTower估计，2020年App Store中的手机游戏支出为476亿美元，产生143亿美元的费用，略低于苹果总收入的5%。</blockquote></p><p> Gene Munster, managing director of the venture firm Loup Capital and a former sell-side analyst with a long history of tracking Apple, estimated that the App Store accounts for about 14% of the company’s profits. But he sees limited risk from Friday’s ruling.</p><p><blockquote>风险投资公司Loup Capital董事总经理、长期跟踪苹果的前卖方分析师吉恩·蒙斯特(Gene Munster)估计，App Store约占该公司利润的14%。但他认为周五裁决的风险有限。</blockquote></p><p> Munster thinks most app developers will stay inside of the Apple system. He sees “at most” a 2% headwind to overall revenue, and a potential 4% hit to profits.</p><p><blockquote>蒙斯特认为大多数应用程序开发人员将留在苹果系统内。他认为整体收入“最多”会受到2%的阻力，利润可能会受到4%的打击。</blockquote></p><p> “After the first year of these changes, app store growth rates will return to normal,” he said. “Bottom line, it’s at most a one-year headwind and does not change the big picture of where Apple is going over the next 5 years.”</p><p><blockquote>“在这些变化的第一年之后，app store的增长率将恢复正常，”他说。“最重要的是，这最多是一年的逆风，不会改变苹果未来5年的发展方向。”</blockquote></p><p> Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani said in a research note that the ruling is a setback for Apple, but that the eventual impact is likely to be manageable, given Apple has alternative ways to generate revenue from the store, including its growing in-store ad business. And he noted that Apple actually got a win on a bigger issue in the case: The judge rejected Epic’s assertion that the App Store is an illegal monopoly. Daryanani estimated the risk to Apple’s per-share earnings at 2% to 4%.</p><p><blockquote>Evercore ISI分析师Amit Daryanani在一份研究报告中表示，这一裁决对苹果来说是一次挫折，但鉴于苹果有其他方式从商店创收，包括其不断增长的店内广告业务，最终的影响可能是可控的。他指出，苹果实际上在该案中的一个更大问题上取得了胜利：法官驳回了Epic关于App Store是非法垄断的主张。Daryanani估计苹果每股收益面临的风险为2%至4%。</blockquote></p><p> Wedbush analyst Dan Ives told&nbsp;<i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;he thinks the worst-case scenario is a 3% to 4% hit to revenues, describing the risk as a “rounding error.” While Ives said the Street had expected an across-the-board win for Apple, the mixed decision removes an overhang on the stock and that investors are likely relieved to put the issue to rest.</p><p><blockquote>Wedbush分析师Dan Ives告诉<i>巴伦周刊</i>他认为最坏的情况是收入受到3%至4%的打击，并将这种风险描述为“舍入误差”。虽然Ives表示，华尔街原本预计苹果会全面获胜，但这一喜忧参半的决定消除了该股的悬念，投资者可能会因为解决这个问题而松一口气。</blockquote></p><p> The ruling is more a positive for companies like&nbsp;Spotify Technology&nbsp;and&nbsp;Match Group&nbsp;than it is a negative for Apple, he said. Apple stock fell 3.3% to $148.97&nbsp;on&nbsp;Friday, while Spotify and March gained 0.7% and&nbsp;4.2%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，这一裁决对Spotify Technology和Match Group等公司来说更多的是积极的，而不是对苹果的负面影响。苹果股价周五下跌3.3%，至148.97美元，Spotify和March分别上涨0.7%和4.</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Apple’s Risk Is Limited<blockquote>为什么苹果的风险有限</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Apple’s Risk Is Limited<blockquote>为什么苹果的风险有限</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-11 08:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple faces real, but limited, risk to its revenue and profits from Friday’s ruling that requires it to allow developers to offer alternative payment methods for purchases made in apps downloaded through the Apple app store.</p><p><blockquote>周五的裁决要求苹果允许开发者为通过苹果应用商店下载的应用程序中的购买提供替代支付方式，这给其收入和利润带来了真实但有限的风险。</blockquote></p><p> In a case filed by Fortnite publisher Epic Games, U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers issued a permanent injunction that requires Apple (ticker: AAPL) to allow developers the option to include links to alternative payment methods in their apps. Apple’s own payment system takes a 30% cut from large developers.</p><p><blockquote>在堡垒之夜发行商Epic Games提起的案件中，美国地区法官Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers发布了一项永久禁令，要求苹果（股票代码：AAPL）允许开发者选择在其应用程序中包含替代支付方式的链接。苹果自己的支付系统从大型开发商那里收取30%的提成。</blockquote></p><p> Data from the app tracker SensorTower shows that in calendar 2020, Apple had overall revenue from the App Store of $72.3 billion, generating an estimated $21.7 billion in fees, or about 7% of Apple’s overall revenues. That includes $21 billion in spending in the U.S., generating about $6.3 billion in fees, or about 2% of annualized revenues.</p><p><blockquote>应用追踪器SensorTower的数据显示，2020年，苹果从App Store获得的总收入为723亿美元，产生的费用估计为217亿美元，约占苹果总收入的7%。其中包括在美国的210亿美元支出，产生约63亿美元的费用，约占年收入的2%。</blockquote></p><p> SensorTower estimates that mobile-game spending in the App Store in calendar 2020 was $47.6 billion, generating $14.3 billion in fees, or a little under 5% of Apple’s total revenues.</p><p><blockquote>SensorTower估计，2020年App Store中的手机游戏支出为476亿美元，产生143亿美元的费用，略低于苹果总收入的5%。</blockquote></p><p> Gene Munster, managing director of the venture firm Loup Capital and a former sell-side analyst with a long history of tracking Apple, estimated that the App Store accounts for about 14% of the company’s profits. But he sees limited risk from Friday’s ruling.</p><p><blockquote>风险投资公司Loup Capital董事总经理、长期跟踪苹果的前卖方分析师吉恩·蒙斯特(Gene Munster)估计，App Store约占该公司利润的14%。但他认为周五裁决的风险有限。</blockquote></p><p> Munster thinks most app developers will stay inside of the Apple system. He sees “at most” a 2% headwind to overall revenue, and a potential 4% hit to profits.</p><p><blockquote>蒙斯特认为大多数应用程序开发人员将留在苹果系统内。他认为整体收入“最多”会受到2%的阻力，利润可能会受到4%的打击。</blockquote></p><p> “After the first year of these changes, app store growth rates will return to normal,” he said. “Bottom line, it’s at most a one-year headwind and does not change the big picture of where Apple is going over the next 5 years.”</p><p><blockquote>“在这些变化的第一年之后，app store的增长率将恢复正常，”他说。“最重要的是，这最多是一年的逆风，不会改变苹果未来5年的发展方向。”</blockquote></p><p> Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani said in a research note that the ruling is a setback for Apple, but that the eventual impact is likely to be manageable, given Apple has alternative ways to generate revenue from the store, including its growing in-store ad business. And he noted that Apple actually got a win on a bigger issue in the case: The judge rejected Epic’s assertion that the App Store is an illegal monopoly. Daryanani estimated the risk to Apple’s per-share earnings at 2% to 4%.</p><p><blockquote>Evercore ISI分析师Amit Daryanani在一份研究报告中表示，这一裁决对苹果来说是一次挫折，但鉴于苹果有其他方式从商店创收，包括其不断增长的店内广告业务，最终的影响可能是可控的。他指出，苹果实际上在该案中的一个更大问题上取得了胜利：法官驳回了Epic关于App Store是非法垄断的主张。Daryanani估计苹果每股收益面临的风险为2%至4%。</blockquote></p><p> Wedbush analyst Dan Ives told&nbsp;<i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;he thinks the worst-case scenario is a 3% to 4% hit to revenues, describing the risk as a “rounding error.” While Ives said the Street had expected an across-the-board win for Apple, the mixed decision removes an overhang on the stock and that investors are likely relieved to put the issue to rest.</p><p><blockquote>Wedbush分析师Dan Ives告诉<i>巴伦周刊</i>他认为最坏的情况是收入受到3%至4%的打击，并将这种风险描述为“舍入误差”。虽然Ives表示，华尔街原本预计苹果会全面获胜，但这一喜忧参半的决定消除了该股的悬念，投资者可能会因为解决这个问题而松一口气。</blockquote></p><p> The ruling is more a positive for companies like&nbsp;Spotify Technology&nbsp;and&nbsp;Match Group&nbsp;than it is a negative for Apple, he said. Apple stock fell 3.3% to $148.97&nbsp;on&nbsp;Friday, while Spotify and March gained 0.7% and&nbsp;4.2%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，这一裁决对Spotify Technology和Match Group等公司来说更多的是积极的，而不是对苹果的负面影响。苹果股价周五下跌3.3%，至148.97美元，Spotify和March分别上涨0.7%和4.</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-app-store-epic-51631304007?mod=hp_LEAD_1_B_2\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-app-store-epic-51631304007?mod=hp_LEAD_1_B_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147045390","content_text":"Apple faces real, but limited, risk to its revenue and profits from Friday’s ruling that requires it to allow developers to offer alternative payment methods for purchases made in apps downloaded through the Apple app store.\nIn a case filed by Fortnite publisher Epic Games, U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers issued a permanent injunction that requires Apple (ticker: AAPL) to allow developers the option to include links to alternative payment methods in their apps. Apple’s own payment system takes a 30% cut from large developers.\nData from the app tracker SensorTower shows that in calendar 2020, Apple had overall revenue from the App Store of $72.3 billion, generating an estimated $21.7 billion in fees, or about 7% of Apple’s overall revenues. That includes $21 billion in spending in the U.S., generating about $6.3 billion in fees, or about 2% of annualized revenues.\nSensorTower estimates that mobile-game spending in the App Store in calendar 2020 was $47.6 billion, generating $14.3 billion in fees, or a little under 5% of Apple’s total revenues.\nGene Munster, managing director of the venture firm Loup Capital and a former sell-side analyst with a long history of tracking Apple, estimated that the App Store accounts for about 14% of the company’s profits. But he sees limited risk from Friday’s ruling.\nMunster thinks most app developers will stay inside of the Apple system. He sees “at most” a 2% headwind to overall revenue, and a potential 4% hit to profits.\n“After the first year of these changes, app store growth rates will return to normal,” he said. “Bottom line, it’s at most a one-year headwind and does not change the big picture of where Apple is going over the next 5 years.”\nEvercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani said in a research note that the ruling is a setback for Apple, but that the eventual impact is likely to be manageable, given Apple has alternative ways to generate revenue from the store, including its growing in-store ad business. And he noted that Apple actually got a win on a bigger issue in the case: The judge rejected Epic’s assertion that the App Store is an illegal monopoly. Daryanani estimated the risk to Apple’s per-share earnings at 2% to 4%.\nWedbush analyst Dan Ives told Barron’s he thinks the worst-case scenario is a 3% to 4% hit to revenues, describing the risk as a “rounding error.” While Ives said the Street had expected an across-the-board win for Apple, the mixed decision removes an overhang on the stock and that investors are likely relieved to put the issue to rest.\nThe ruling is more a positive for companies like Spotify Technology and Match Group than it is a negative for Apple, he said. Apple stock fell 3.3% to $148.97 on Friday, while Spotify and March gained 0.7% and 4.2%, respectively.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1376,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":812283827,"gmtCreate":1630590378269,"gmtModify":1632471458192,"author":{"id":"3579326417741698","authorId":"3579326417741698","name":"小霖妹子","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579326417741698","idStr":"3579326417741698"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like","listText":"Pls like","text":"Pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/812283827","repostId":"1108690074","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":659,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124491476,"gmtCreate":1624777209295,"gmtModify":1633948690313,"author":{"id":"3579326417741698","authorId":"3579326417741698","name":"小霖妹子","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579326417741698","idStr":"3579326417741698"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Too volatile","listText":"Too volatile","text":"Too volatile","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124491476","repostId":"1184001921","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184001921","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624763737,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1184001921?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-27 11:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon: Good Stock, Not Good Price<blockquote>亚马逊：好库存，不好价格</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184001921","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAmazon is one of the most innovative companies in the world today, leading the E-commerce i","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Amazon is one of the most innovative companies in the world today, leading the E-commerce industry and cloud computing services.</li>  <li>Unfortunately, it's a little overpriced. This is consistent with some of the other mega-cap stocks I've analyzed.</li>  <li>This article looks at what Amazon stock is most likely worth for us investors.</li>  <li>I hope you enjoy.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/451bc93115fb453c0fcb76434c40f7f4\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>亚马逊是当今世界最具创新力的公司之一，在电子商务行业和云计算服务领域处于领先地位。</li><li>不幸的是，它的价格有点过高。这与我分析过的其他一些大型股是一致的。</li><li>本文探讨了亚马逊股票对美国投资者来说最有可能的价值。</li><li>我希望你喜欢。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>杂项摄影/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Today, Amazon (AMZN) seems to be a little overpriced based on my intrinsic value model.</p><p><blockquote>今天，根据我的内在价值模型，亚马逊（AMZN）的定价似乎有点过高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82d937a2de3f0709088e1ab4548267b\" tg-width=\"371\" tg-height=\"260\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> You might have seen some of my other articles where I've bashed other popular stocks like Apple (AAPL) or Microsoft (MSFT). Well, I guess today it's Amazon's turn. I just try to share what I think companies are worth, and I've found that a lot of companies seem to be overpriced.</p><p><blockquote>您可能已经看过我的其他一些文章，其中我抨击了苹果(AAPL)或微软(MSFT)等其他热门股票。嗯，我想今天轮到亚马逊了。我只是试图分享我认为公司的价值，我发现很多公司似乎定价过高。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, I'll break down how I came up with Amazon's valuation. I know that there's tons of different opinions out there about Amazon, so I'll try to share the reasoning behind my valuation to help you make better investments in the future.</p><p><blockquote>在本文中，我将详细介绍我是如何得出亚马逊估值的。我知道关于亚马逊有很多不同的观点，所以我会尝试分享我的估值背后的理由，以帮助您在未来进行更好的投资。</blockquote></p><p> Something important you should know - I'm not an expert on Amazon, and I have a really difficult time valuing growth stocks. I really doubt that I have the ability to estimate a company's future growth. I made future growth estimates by looking at past growth and making conservative estimates of the future.</p><p><blockquote>你应该知道一些重要的事情——我不是亚马逊专家，我很难评估成长型股票。我真的很怀疑我有能力估计一家公司未来的增长。我通过查看过去的增长并对未来做出保守的估计来做出未来的增长估计。</blockquote></p><p> This method borders on \"data extrapolation\", which is making assumptions based on past data. Data extrapolation isn't great because the future is different from the past - so making future projections based on past data isn't ideal.</p><p><blockquote>这种方法近乎“数据外推”，即根据过去的数据做出假设。数据外推并不好，因为未来与过去不同——所以根据过去的数据进行未来预测并不理想。</blockquote></p><p> But after valuing hundreds of companies, I've found that this kind of style does a good job of getting the valuation approximately right. I always try to set my valuations low, because it's better to buy low and make a killing than buy high and lose money.</p><p><blockquote>但在对数百家公司进行估值后，我发现这种风格可以很好地获得大致正确的估值。我总是尽量把我的估值定低，因为低买大赚总比高买亏好。</blockquote></p><p>   Warren Buffett said, “The three most important words in investing are  <b>margin of safety</b>.” That means to buy stuff on sale... That's the whole secret to great investing.    Rule 1 Investing  This model is built on getting the valuation \"approximately right,\" and looking to buy with a large margin of safety. I hope you enjoy, and as always, I'll try to keep it clean and common sense.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特说：“投资中最重要的三个词是<b>安全边际</b>意思是买打折的东西....这就是伟大投资的全部秘密。规则1投资该模型的基础是获得“大致正确”的估值，并寻求以较大的安全边际进行购买。我希望你喜欢，一如既往，我会尽量保持它的干净和常识。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Where does Amazon get its money? Amazon is split into 3 segments: North America, International, and AWS.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊的钱从哪里来？亚马逊分为3个部分：北美、国际和AWS。</blockquote></p><p> As a market leader in 2 high growth industries (E-commerce and cloud computing), Amazon will probably continue to see high growth in the future. In this section, I looked at the past revenue growth and operating margins for each of Amazon's segments, and I used this to make conservative future projections.</p><p><blockquote>作为两个高增长行业（电子商务和云计算）的市场领导者，亚马逊未来可能会继续实现高增长。在本节中，我研究了亚马逊每个部门过去的收入增长和营业利润率，并以此做出保守的未来预测。</blockquote></p><p> And later, I added up the numbers from each segment to make projections for the whole company. Here's a look at AMZN's North America segment. This segment's revenue comes from retail sales and subscription service revenues.</p><p><blockquote>后来，我把每个部门的数字加起来，对整个公司进行预测。以下是亚马逊北美业务的概况。该部门的收入来自零售销售和订阅服务收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce022c0ecacc3829cf83378211bbfd9d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"192\"><span>Source: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用2018年10-K、2019年10-K和2020年10-K的数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I projected declining revenue growth and strong operating margins for this segment. I projected slower revenue growth, because I figure there has to be a cap on how much money Amazon can make in North America.</p><p><blockquote>我预计该部门的收入增长将下降，营业利润率将强劲。我预计收入增长会放缓，因为我认为亚马逊在北美的收入必须有一个上限。</blockquote></p><p> Hopefully, Amazon will exceed this revenue growth. But, I do think it would be a pretty incredible feat for Amazon to grow from $200B in revenue to $400B in 5 years.</p><p><blockquote>希望亚马逊能够超过这一收入增长。但是，我确实认为亚马逊在5年内将收入从2000亿美元增长到4000亿美元将是一个非常令人难以置信的壮举。</blockquote></p><p> Here's a look at Amazon's International segment:</p><p><blockquote>以下是亚马逊国际部门的概况：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3d7a5bde370f55e863f58c888abc496\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"219\"><span>Source: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用2018年10-K、2019年10-K和2020年10-K的数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For Amazon's international segment, I projected 20% annual revenue growth, and improving operating margins. I figured that operating margins would gradually improve until the margins reached a similar point to what Amazon sees in its US segment.</p><p><blockquote>对于亚马逊的国际部门，我预计年收入将增长20%，营业利润率也将提高。我认为营业利润率将逐渐提高，直到利润率达到与亚马逊在美国市场类似的水平。</blockquote></p><p> And for Amazon's last and most exciting segment, here's AWS:</p><p><blockquote>对于亚马逊最后也是最令人兴奋的部分，AWS是：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/769700013871f2cd09e8ce47cfb10966\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"203\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AWS is undoubtedly going to bring high growth for Amazon, and high profits. I projected that the AWS segment will probably continue to grow at a high rate. I projected a 25-30% annual revenue growth rate because cloud computing has a lot of room to grow, and according to Research and Markets, the cloud computing industry should grow at about&nbsp;17.5% CAGR&nbsp;until 2025.</p><p><blockquote>AWS无疑将为亚马逊带来高增长和高利润。我预计AWS细分市场可能会继续高速增长。我预测25-30%的年收入增长率，因为云计算有很大的增长空间，根据研究和市场，云计算行业应该以17.5%的CAGR增长，直到2025年。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Additionally, I projected 28% operating margins, because the AWS business benefits from operating leverage. As more people use the software, the company is able to make higher margins as it spreads costs over more people. It's possible that Amazon could exceed 28% operating margins, so there might be upside to Amazon's fair value.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我预计营业利润率为28%，因为AWS业务受益于运营杠杆。随着越来越多的人使用该软件，该公司能够通过将成本分摊给更多的人来获得更高的利润。亚马逊的营业利润率可能会超过28%，因此亚马逊的公允价值可能会有上升空间。</blockquote></p><p> These projections were added together to help us figure out what the entire company should be worth.</p><p><blockquote>这些预测加在一起有助于我们计算出整个公司的价值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Capital Allocation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>资本配置</b></blockquote></p><p> How does Amazon spend its money? You might find it interesting to analyze Amazon's capital allocation, so you can see what Amazon does with its money, and where it might be investing for the future.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊是怎么花钱的？你可能会发现分析亚马逊的资本配置很有趣，这样你就可以看到亚马逊用它的钱做了什么，以及它未来可能投资到哪里。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45f5afa0f641ee1aae39aa69cc150165\" tg-width=\"619\" tg-height=\"499\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The biggest portion of Amazon's operating cash flows goes towards capital expenditures. From what I can tell, Amazon has not had any share activity over the past 5 years. The company has issued shares - but from the looks of the cash flow statement, it looks like they haven't raised any money from selling shares, and they haven't spent any money buying back shares.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊运营现金流的最大部分用于资本支出。据我所知，亚马逊在过去5年里没有任何分享活动。该公司已经发行了股票——但从现金流量表来看，他们似乎没有通过出售股票筹集到任何资金，也没有花任何钱回购股票。</blockquote></p><p>   In February 2016, the Board of Directors authorized a program to repurchase up to $5.0 billion of our common stock, with no fixed expiration.  <i>There were no repurchases of common stock in 2018, 2019, or 2020.</i>    Source:2020 10-K&nbsp;page 60,  <i>emphasis added</i>  But for our purposes, this quote shows that Amazon hasn't bought back any stock over the past 3 years. They also haven't spent any money on dividends, which is good because they're a high growth company.</p><p><blockquote>2016年2月，董事会批准了一项回购最多50亿美元普通股的计划，没有固定到期日。<i>2018年、2019年或2020年没有回购普通股。</i>资料来源：2020 10-K第60页，<i>增加了强调</i>但就我们而言，这段报价表明亚马逊在过去3年中没有回购任何股票。他们也没有在股息上花任何钱，这很好，因为他们是一家高增长公司。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon has consistently spent money on acquisitions and paying down debt. What's really interesting is that Amazon has built up a lot of spare cash over the past 5 years. Their cash position has risen about $58B since 2016, going from about $26B at the end of 2016 to about $84B at the end of 2020.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊一直在收购和偿还债务上花钱。真正有趣的是，亚马逊在过去5年里积累了大量闲钱。自2016年以来，他们的现金头寸增加了约580亿美元，从2016年底的约260亿美元增加到2020年底的约840亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon has a lot more cash than they used to, so we could see future spending go towards a dividend, share buybacks, new acquisitions, or maybe more business investments that will lead to growth.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊拥有比以前多得多的现金，因此我们可以看到未来的支出将用于股息、股票回购、新收购，或者更多将带来增长的商业投资。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> First, I used a discount rate of 7.7% for Amazon because that's what I found the company's weighted average cost of capital, or WACC, to be. I assumed an 8% cost of equity, and Amazon has averaged somewhere around a 20-30% tax rate over the past 10 years.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我对亚马逊使用了7.7%的贴现率，因为这是我发现该公司的加权平均资本成本(WACC)。我假设股权成本为8%，而亚马逊在过去10年中的平均税率约为20-30%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c036264f19bb10fdad477a629b40f803\" tg-width=\"361\" tg-height=\"288\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I used a DCF model to find Amazon's value today. In the model down below, you can see in the top 2 red boxes that I projected that the company would have lower revenue growth and strong operating margins.</p><p><blockquote>我今天用DCF模型找到了亚马逊的价值。在下面的模型中，您可以在顶部2个红框中看到，我预计该公司的收入增长将较低，营业利润率将强劲。</blockquote></p><p> This model projects that Amazon will have over $850B in revenue by 2025. That's absolutely nuts if you think about it, but based on estimated revenue growth, it seems feasible.</p><p><blockquote>该模型预计，到2025年，亚马逊的收入将超过8500亿美元。仔细想想，这绝对是疯狂的，但根据估计的收入增长，这似乎是可行的。</blockquote></p><p> Right now, Walmart(NYSE:WMT)leads the world in revenue with about $550B. Amazon sits in third place for annual revenue, with about $390B. In 5 years, Amazon could easily have the largest revenue of any company in the world.</p><p><blockquote>目前，沃尔玛（纽约证券交易所股票代码：WMT）以约550B美元的收入领先全球。亚马逊的年收入排名第三，约为3900亿美元。5年后，亚马逊很可能成为世界上收入最高的公司。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95c459abcbda43e35b40379a1083ecae\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"510\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Down at the bottom of this model, you can see there's a red box that projects unlevered FCF margins. This basically measures how much of the company's revenue will become business profits, without including interest or debt payments. In the turquoise box, I applied the discount rate to see what the future cash flows are worth today.</p><p><blockquote>在该模型的底部，您可以看到有一个红色框，显示无杠杆自由现金流利润率。这基本上衡量了公司收入中有多少将成为业务利润，不包括利息或债务支付。在绿松石盒子中，我应用了贴现率来查看未来现金流今天的价值。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3fa0846616fdc847a3fe1fdf7a09bed\" tg-width=\"267\" tg-height=\"404\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Today, it looks like Amazon is slightly overvalued. The model projects that the stock might be about 15% overvalued, and we could expect to make about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years if we invested today.</p><p><blockquote>如今，亚马逊的估值似乎略有高估。该模型预测该股票可能被高估约15%，如果我们今天投资，我们预计未来5年的年回报率约为5%。</blockquote></p><p> These estimations are based on the future cash flows that the business should generate. I don't hate Amazon or anything, I just don't think that Amazon stock would make a great investment at current prices.</p><p><blockquote>该等估计乃基于业务应产生的未来现金流量。我并不讨厌亚马逊或任何东西，我只是不认为亚马逊股票在当前价格下会是一项伟大的投资。</blockquote></p><p> Down at the bottom, I threw in 2 \"Buy Prices\" where Amazon stock might be more appealing. The idea behind this is that the cheaper AMZN stock gets, the higher returns we can expect.</p><p><blockquote>在底部，我提出了两个亚马逊股票可能更有吸引力的“买入价格”。这背后的想法是，AMZN股票越便宜，我们可以预期的回报就越高。</blockquote></p><p> The model projects that you'd make around 15% annual returns at $2,200 per share, and you might make around 22% annual returns at $1,700 per share.</p><p><blockquote>该模型预计，每股2,200美元的年回报率约为15%，每股1,700美元的年回报率约为22%。</blockquote></p><p> \"But doesn't it seem unreasonable to set the buy price in the $2,000s when the stock's trading near $3,500?\" It does a little bit. It seems pretty unlikely that Amazon's share price will nose dive right down past $2,000.</p><p><blockquote>“但当股票交易价格接近3,500美元时，将买入价格定为2,000美元似乎不合理吗？”有一点。亚马逊的股价似乎不太可能暴跌至2,000美元以上。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But the idea is, if we're patient, we might get an opportunity to buy these shares underpriced. Last February, Amazon traded lower than $1,900 (I wish I bought some back then). We'll probably have opportunities in the future to buy Amazon at a discount.</p><p><blockquote>但我们的想法是，如果我们有耐心，我们可能有机会以低价购买这些股票。去年2月，亚马逊的交易价格低于1,900美元（我希望当时买了一些）。我们将来可能有机会以折扣价购买亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recap</b></p><p><blockquote><b>回顾</b></blockquote></p><p> Today, it seems like Amazon is slightly overvalued, because it seems to offer about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years. That doesn't mean you should sell Amazon if you're a long time holder, because Amazon should continue to do well as a leader in E-commerce and cloud computing.</p><p><blockquote>如今，亚马逊的估值似乎略有高估，因为它似乎在未来5年内提供约5%的年回报率。这并不意味着如果您是长期持有者，您应该出售亚马逊，因为亚马逊应该继续作为电子商务和云计算领域的领导者表现出色。</blockquote></p><p> But if you're looking for your next stock to invest in, Amazon seems to be too expensive right now. And if you've been eyeing Amazon for a while and you're looking to get in, now's not the best time to get into Amazon.</p><p><blockquote>但如果你正在寻找下一只投资股票，亚马逊现在似乎太贵了。如果您关注亚马逊已经有一段时间了，并且正在寻求进入，那么现在不是进入亚马逊的最佳时机。</blockquote></p><p> Even if we don't invest in the stock, we can still watch Amazon as they become the company with the most revenue in the world. And there's a lot we can learn from studying Amazon and Jeff Bezos. He's a smart dude.</p><p><blockquote>即使我们不投资该股票，我们仍然可以看到亚马逊成为世界上收入最多的公司。我们可以从研究亚马逊和杰夫·贝索斯中学到很多东西。他是个聪明人。</blockquote></p><p> Thank you very much for reading, and I hope that you have a great rest of your day.</p><p><blockquote>非常感谢您的阅读，我希望您今天休息得愉快。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: Good Stock, Not Good Price<blockquote>亚马逊：好库存，不好价格</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: Good Stock, Not Good Price<blockquote>亚马逊：好库存，不好价格</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-27 11:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Amazon is one of the most innovative companies in the world today, leading the E-commerce industry and cloud computing services.</li>  <li>Unfortunately, it's a little overpriced. This is consistent with some of the other mega-cap stocks I've analyzed.</li>  <li>This article looks at what Amazon stock is most likely worth for us investors.</li>  <li>I hope you enjoy.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/451bc93115fb453c0fcb76434c40f7f4\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>亚马逊是当今世界最具创新力的公司之一，在电子商务行业和云计算服务领域处于领先地位。</li><li>不幸的是，它的价格有点过高。这与我分析过的其他一些大型股是一致的。</li><li>本文探讨了亚马逊股票对美国投资者来说最有可能的价值。</li><li>我希望你喜欢。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>杂项摄影/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Today, Amazon (AMZN) seems to be a little overpriced based on my intrinsic value model.</p><p><blockquote>今天，根据我的内在价值模型，亚马逊（AMZN）的定价似乎有点过高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82d937a2de3f0709088e1ab4548267b\" tg-width=\"371\" tg-height=\"260\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> You might have seen some of my other articles where I've bashed other popular stocks like Apple (AAPL) or Microsoft (MSFT). Well, I guess today it's Amazon's turn. I just try to share what I think companies are worth, and I've found that a lot of companies seem to be overpriced.</p><p><blockquote>您可能已经看过我的其他一些文章，其中我抨击了苹果(AAPL)或微软(MSFT)等其他热门股票。嗯，我想今天轮到亚马逊了。我只是试图分享我认为公司的价值，我发现很多公司似乎定价过高。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, I'll break down how I came up with Amazon's valuation. I know that there's tons of different opinions out there about Amazon, so I'll try to share the reasoning behind my valuation to help you make better investments in the future.</p><p><blockquote>在本文中，我将详细介绍我是如何得出亚马逊估值的。我知道关于亚马逊有很多不同的观点，所以我会尝试分享我的估值背后的理由，以帮助您在未来进行更好的投资。</blockquote></p><p> Something important you should know - I'm not an expert on Amazon, and I have a really difficult time valuing growth stocks. I really doubt that I have the ability to estimate a company's future growth. I made future growth estimates by looking at past growth and making conservative estimates of the future.</p><p><blockquote>你应该知道一些重要的事情——我不是亚马逊专家，我很难评估成长型股票。我真的很怀疑我有能力估计一家公司未来的增长。我通过查看过去的增长并对未来做出保守的估计来做出未来的增长估计。</blockquote></p><p> This method borders on \"data extrapolation\", which is making assumptions based on past data. Data extrapolation isn't great because the future is different from the past - so making future projections based on past data isn't ideal.</p><p><blockquote>这种方法近乎“数据外推”，即根据过去的数据做出假设。数据外推并不好，因为未来与过去不同——所以根据过去的数据进行未来预测并不理想。</blockquote></p><p> But after valuing hundreds of companies, I've found that this kind of style does a good job of getting the valuation approximately right. I always try to set my valuations low, because it's better to buy low and make a killing than buy high and lose money.</p><p><blockquote>但在对数百家公司进行估值后，我发现这种风格可以很好地获得大致正确的估值。我总是尽量把我的估值定低，因为低买大赚总比高买亏好。</blockquote></p><p>   Warren Buffett said, “The three most important words in investing are  <b>margin of safety</b>.” That means to buy stuff on sale... That's the whole secret to great investing.    Rule 1 Investing  This model is built on getting the valuation \"approximately right,\" and looking to buy with a large margin of safety. I hope you enjoy, and as always, I'll try to keep it clean and common sense.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特说：“投资中最重要的三个词是<b>安全边际</b>意思是买打折的东西....这就是伟大投资的全部秘密。规则1投资该模型的基础是获得“大致正确”的估值，并寻求以较大的安全边际进行购买。我希望你喜欢，一如既往，我会尽量保持它的干净和常识。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Where does Amazon get its money? Amazon is split into 3 segments: North America, International, and AWS.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊的钱从哪里来？亚马逊分为3个部分：北美、国际和AWS。</blockquote></p><p> As a market leader in 2 high growth industries (E-commerce and cloud computing), Amazon will probably continue to see high growth in the future. In this section, I looked at the past revenue growth and operating margins for each of Amazon's segments, and I used this to make conservative future projections.</p><p><blockquote>作为两个高增长行业（电子商务和云计算）的市场领导者，亚马逊未来可能会继续实现高增长。在本节中，我研究了亚马逊每个部门过去的收入增长和营业利润率，并以此做出保守的未来预测。</blockquote></p><p> And later, I added up the numbers from each segment to make projections for the whole company. Here's a look at AMZN's North America segment. This segment's revenue comes from retail sales and subscription service revenues.</p><p><blockquote>后来，我把每个部门的数字加起来，对整个公司进行预测。以下是亚马逊北美业务的概况。该部门的收入来自零售销售和订阅服务收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce022c0ecacc3829cf83378211bbfd9d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"192\"><span>Source: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用2018年10-K、2019年10-K和2020年10-K的数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I projected declining revenue growth and strong operating margins for this segment. I projected slower revenue growth, because I figure there has to be a cap on how much money Amazon can make in North America.</p><p><blockquote>我预计该部门的收入增长将下降，营业利润率将强劲。我预计收入增长会放缓，因为我认为亚马逊在北美的收入必须有一个上限。</blockquote></p><p> Hopefully, Amazon will exceed this revenue growth. But, I do think it would be a pretty incredible feat for Amazon to grow from $200B in revenue to $400B in 5 years.</p><p><blockquote>希望亚马逊能够超过这一收入增长。但是，我确实认为亚马逊在5年内将收入从2000亿美元增长到4000亿美元将是一个非常令人难以置信的壮举。</blockquote></p><p> Here's a look at Amazon's International segment:</p><p><blockquote>以下是亚马逊国际部门的概况：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3d7a5bde370f55e863f58c888abc496\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"219\"><span>Source: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用2018年10-K、2019年10-K和2020年10-K的数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For Amazon's international segment, I projected 20% annual revenue growth, and improving operating margins. I figured that operating margins would gradually improve until the margins reached a similar point to what Amazon sees in its US segment.</p><p><blockquote>对于亚马逊的国际部门，我预计年收入将增长20%，营业利润率也将提高。我认为营业利润率将逐渐提高，直到利润率达到与亚马逊在美国市场类似的水平。</blockquote></p><p> And for Amazon's last and most exciting segment, here's AWS:</p><p><blockquote>对于亚马逊最后也是最令人兴奋的部分，AWS是：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/769700013871f2cd09e8ce47cfb10966\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"203\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AWS is undoubtedly going to bring high growth for Amazon, and high profits. I projected that the AWS segment will probably continue to grow at a high rate. I projected a 25-30% annual revenue growth rate because cloud computing has a lot of room to grow, and according to Research and Markets, the cloud computing industry should grow at about&nbsp;17.5% CAGR&nbsp;until 2025.</p><p><blockquote>AWS无疑将为亚马逊带来高增长和高利润。我预计AWS细分市场可能会继续高速增长。我预测25-30%的年收入增长率，因为云计算有很大的增长空间，根据研究和市场，云计算行业应该以17.5%的CAGR增长，直到2025年。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Additionally, I projected 28% operating margins, because the AWS business benefits from operating leverage. As more people use the software, the company is able to make higher margins as it spreads costs over more people. It's possible that Amazon could exceed 28% operating margins, so there might be upside to Amazon's fair value.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我预计营业利润率为28%，因为AWS业务受益于运营杠杆。随着越来越多的人使用该软件，该公司能够通过将成本分摊给更多的人来获得更高的利润。亚马逊的营业利润率可能会超过28%，因此亚马逊的公允价值可能会有上升空间。</blockquote></p><p> These projections were added together to help us figure out what the entire company should be worth.</p><p><blockquote>这些预测加在一起有助于我们计算出整个公司的价值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Capital Allocation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>资本配置</b></blockquote></p><p> How does Amazon spend its money? You might find it interesting to analyze Amazon's capital allocation, so you can see what Amazon does with its money, and where it might be investing for the future.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊是怎么花钱的？你可能会发现分析亚马逊的资本配置很有趣，这样你就可以看到亚马逊用它的钱做了什么，以及它未来可能投资到哪里。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45f5afa0f641ee1aae39aa69cc150165\" tg-width=\"619\" tg-height=\"499\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The biggest portion of Amazon's operating cash flows goes towards capital expenditures. From what I can tell, Amazon has not had any share activity over the past 5 years. The company has issued shares - but from the looks of the cash flow statement, it looks like they haven't raised any money from selling shares, and they haven't spent any money buying back shares.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊运营现金流的最大部分用于资本支出。据我所知，亚马逊在过去5年里没有任何分享活动。该公司已经发行了股票——但从现金流量表来看，他们似乎没有通过出售股票筹集到任何资金，也没有花任何钱回购股票。</blockquote></p><p>   In February 2016, the Board of Directors authorized a program to repurchase up to $5.0 billion of our common stock, with no fixed expiration.  <i>There were no repurchases of common stock in 2018, 2019, or 2020.</i>    Source:2020 10-K&nbsp;page 60,  <i>emphasis added</i>  But for our purposes, this quote shows that Amazon hasn't bought back any stock over the past 3 years. They also haven't spent any money on dividends, which is good because they're a high growth company.</p><p><blockquote>2016年2月，董事会批准了一项回购最多50亿美元普通股的计划，没有固定到期日。<i>2018年、2019年或2020年没有回购普通股。</i>资料来源：2020 10-K第60页，<i>增加了强调</i>但就我们而言，这段报价表明亚马逊在过去3年中没有回购任何股票。他们也没有在股息上花任何钱，这很好，因为他们是一家高增长公司。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon has consistently spent money on acquisitions and paying down debt. What's really interesting is that Amazon has built up a lot of spare cash over the past 5 years. Their cash position has risen about $58B since 2016, going from about $26B at the end of 2016 to about $84B at the end of 2020.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊一直在收购和偿还债务上花钱。真正有趣的是，亚马逊在过去5年里积累了大量闲钱。自2016年以来，他们的现金头寸增加了约580亿美元，从2016年底的约260亿美元增加到2020年底的约840亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon has a lot more cash than they used to, so we could see future spending go towards a dividend, share buybacks, new acquisitions, or maybe more business investments that will lead to growth.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊拥有比以前多得多的现金，因此我们可以看到未来的支出将用于股息、股票回购、新收购，或者更多将带来增长的商业投资。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> First, I used a discount rate of 7.7% for Amazon because that's what I found the company's weighted average cost of capital, or WACC, to be. I assumed an 8% cost of equity, and Amazon has averaged somewhere around a 20-30% tax rate over the past 10 years.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我对亚马逊使用了7.7%的贴现率，因为这是我发现该公司的加权平均资本成本(WACC)。我假设股权成本为8%，而亚马逊在过去10年中的平均税率约为20-30%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c036264f19bb10fdad477a629b40f803\" tg-width=\"361\" tg-height=\"288\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I used a DCF model to find Amazon's value today. In the model down below, you can see in the top 2 red boxes that I projected that the company would have lower revenue growth and strong operating margins.</p><p><blockquote>我今天用DCF模型找到了亚马逊的价值。在下面的模型中，您可以在顶部2个红框中看到，我预计该公司的收入增长将较低，营业利润率将强劲。</blockquote></p><p> This model projects that Amazon will have over $850B in revenue by 2025. That's absolutely nuts if you think about it, but based on estimated revenue growth, it seems feasible.</p><p><blockquote>该模型预计，到2025年，亚马逊的收入将超过8500亿美元。仔细想想，这绝对是疯狂的，但根据估计的收入增长，这似乎是可行的。</blockquote></p><p> Right now, Walmart(NYSE:WMT)leads the world in revenue with about $550B. Amazon sits in third place for annual revenue, with about $390B. In 5 years, Amazon could easily have the largest revenue of any company in the world.</p><p><blockquote>目前，沃尔玛（纽约证券交易所股票代码：WMT）以约550B美元的收入领先全球。亚马逊的年收入排名第三，约为3900亿美元。5年后，亚马逊很可能成为世界上收入最高的公司。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95c459abcbda43e35b40379a1083ecae\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"510\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Down at the bottom of this model, you can see there's a red box that projects unlevered FCF margins. This basically measures how much of the company's revenue will become business profits, without including interest or debt payments. In the turquoise box, I applied the discount rate to see what the future cash flows are worth today.</p><p><blockquote>在该模型的底部，您可以看到有一个红色框，显示无杠杆自由现金流利润率。这基本上衡量了公司收入中有多少将成为业务利润，不包括利息或债务支付。在绿松石盒子中，我应用了贴现率来查看未来现金流今天的价值。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3fa0846616fdc847a3fe1fdf7a09bed\" tg-width=\"267\" tg-height=\"404\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Today, it looks like Amazon is slightly overvalued. The model projects that the stock might be about 15% overvalued, and we could expect to make about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years if we invested today.</p><p><blockquote>如今，亚马逊的估值似乎略有高估。该模型预测该股票可能被高估约15%，如果我们今天投资，我们预计未来5年的年回报率约为5%。</blockquote></p><p> These estimations are based on the future cash flows that the business should generate. I don't hate Amazon or anything, I just don't think that Amazon stock would make a great investment at current prices.</p><p><blockquote>该等估计乃基于业务应产生的未来现金流量。我并不讨厌亚马逊或任何东西，我只是不认为亚马逊股票在当前价格下会是一项伟大的投资。</blockquote></p><p> Down at the bottom, I threw in 2 \"Buy Prices\" where Amazon stock might be more appealing. The idea behind this is that the cheaper AMZN stock gets, the higher returns we can expect.</p><p><blockquote>在底部，我提出了两个亚马逊股票可能更有吸引力的“买入价格”。这背后的想法是，AMZN股票越便宜，我们可以预期的回报就越高。</blockquote></p><p> The model projects that you'd make around 15% annual returns at $2,200 per share, and you might make around 22% annual returns at $1,700 per share.</p><p><blockquote>该模型预计，每股2,200美元的年回报率约为15%，每股1,700美元的年回报率约为22%。</blockquote></p><p> \"But doesn't it seem unreasonable to set the buy price in the $2,000s when the stock's trading near $3,500?\" It does a little bit. It seems pretty unlikely that Amazon's share price will nose dive right down past $2,000.</p><p><blockquote>“但当股票交易价格接近3,500美元时，将买入价格定为2,000美元似乎不合理吗？”有一点。亚马逊的股价似乎不太可能暴跌至2,000美元以上。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But the idea is, if we're patient, we might get an opportunity to buy these shares underpriced. Last February, Amazon traded lower than $1,900 (I wish I bought some back then). We'll probably have opportunities in the future to buy Amazon at a discount.</p><p><blockquote>但我们的想法是，如果我们有耐心，我们可能有机会以低价购买这些股票。去年2月，亚马逊的交易价格低于1,900美元（我希望当时买了一些）。我们将来可能有机会以折扣价购买亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recap</b></p><p><blockquote><b>回顾</b></blockquote></p><p> Today, it seems like Amazon is slightly overvalued, because it seems to offer about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years. That doesn't mean you should sell Amazon if you're a long time holder, because Amazon should continue to do well as a leader in E-commerce and cloud computing.</p><p><blockquote>如今，亚马逊的估值似乎略有高估，因为它似乎在未来5年内提供约5%的年回报率。这并不意味着如果您是长期持有者，您应该出售亚马逊，因为亚马逊应该继续作为电子商务和云计算领域的领导者表现出色。</blockquote></p><p> But if you're looking for your next stock to invest in, Amazon seems to be too expensive right now. And if you've been eyeing Amazon for a while and you're looking to get in, now's not the best time to get into Amazon.</p><p><blockquote>但如果你正在寻找下一只投资股票，亚马逊现在似乎太贵了。如果您关注亚马逊已经有一段时间了，并且正在寻求进入，那么现在不是进入亚马逊的最佳时机。</blockquote></p><p> Even if we don't invest in the stock, we can still watch Amazon as they become the company with the most revenue in the world. And there's a lot we can learn from studying Amazon and Jeff Bezos. He's a smart dude.</p><p><blockquote>即使我们不投资该股票，我们仍然可以看到亚马逊成为世界上收入最多的公司。我们可以从研究亚马逊和杰夫·贝索斯中学到很多东西。他是个聪明人。</blockquote></p><p> Thank you very much for reading, and I hope that you have a great rest of your day.</p><p><blockquote>非常感谢您的阅读，我希望您今天休息得愉快。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436641-amazon-good-stock-not-good-price\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436641-amazon-good-stock-not-good-price","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184001921","content_text":"Summary\n\nAmazon is one of the most innovative companies in the world today, leading the E-commerce industry and cloud computing services.\nUnfortunately, it's a little overpriced. This is consistent with some of the other mega-cap stocks I've analyzed.\nThis article looks at what Amazon stock is most likely worth for us investors.\nI hope you enjoy.\n\nSundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nToday, Amazon (AMZN) seems to be a little overpriced based on my intrinsic value model.\nSource: Author\nYou might have seen some of my other articles where I've bashed other popular stocks like Apple (AAPL) or Microsoft (MSFT). Well, I guess today it's Amazon's turn. I just try to share what I think companies are worth, and I've found that a lot of companies seem to be overpriced.\nIn this article, I'll break down how I came up with Amazon's valuation. I know that there's tons of different opinions out there about Amazon, so I'll try to share the reasoning behind my valuation to help you make better investments in the future.\nSomething important you should know - I'm not an expert on Amazon, and I have a really difficult time valuing growth stocks. I really doubt that I have the ability to estimate a company's future growth. I made future growth estimates by looking at past growth and making conservative estimates of the future.\nThis method borders on \"data extrapolation\", which is making assumptions based on past data. Data extrapolation isn't great because the future is different from the past - so making future projections based on past data isn't ideal.\nBut after valuing hundreds of companies, I've found that this kind of style does a good job of getting the valuation approximately right. I always try to set my valuations low, because it's better to buy low and make a killing than buy high and lose money.\n\n Warren Buffett said, “The three most important words in investing are\n margin of safety.” That means to buy stuff on sale... That's the whole secret to great investing.\n\n\n Rule 1 Investing\n\nThis model is built on getting the valuation \"approximately right,\" and looking to buy with a large margin of safety. I hope you enjoy, and as always, I'll try to keep it clean and common sense.\nBusiness Model\nWhere does Amazon get its money? Amazon is split into 3 segments: North America, International, and AWS.\nAs a market leader in 2 high growth industries (E-commerce and cloud computing), Amazon will probably continue to see high growth in the future. In this section, I looked at the past revenue growth and operating margins for each of Amazon's segments, and I used this to make conservative future projections.\nAnd later, I added up the numbers from each segment to make projections for the whole company. Here's a look at AMZN's North America segment. This segment's revenue comes from retail sales and subscription service revenues.\nSource: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K\nI projected declining revenue growth and strong operating margins for this segment. I projected slower revenue growth, because I figure there has to be a cap on how much money Amazon can make in North America.\nHopefully, Amazon will exceed this revenue growth. But, I do think it would be a pretty incredible feat for Amazon to grow from $200B in revenue to $400B in 5 years.\nHere's a look at Amazon's International segment:\nSource: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K\nFor Amazon's international segment, I projected 20% annual revenue growth, and improving operating margins. I figured that operating margins would gradually improve until the margins reached a similar point to what Amazon sees in its US segment.\nAnd for Amazon's last and most exciting segment, here's AWS:\nSource: Author\nAWS is undoubtedly going to bring high growth for Amazon, and high profits. I projected that the AWS segment will probably continue to grow at a high rate. I projected a 25-30% annual revenue growth rate because cloud computing has a lot of room to grow, and according to Research and Markets, the cloud computing industry should grow at about 17.5% CAGR until 2025.\nAdditionally, I projected 28% operating margins, because the AWS business benefits from operating leverage. As more people use the software, the company is able to make higher margins as it spreads costs over more people. It's possible that Amazon could exceed 28% operating margins, so there might be upside to Amazon's fair value.\nThese projections were added together to help us figure out what the entire company should be worth.\nCapital Allocation\nHow does Amazon spend its money? You might find it interesting to analyze Amazon's capital allocation, so you can see what Amazon does with its money, and where it might be investing for the future.\nSource: Author\nThe biggest portion of Amazon's operating cash flows goes towards capital expenditures. From what I can tell, Amazon has not had any share activity over the past 5 years. The company has issued shares - but from the looks of the cash flow statement, it looks like they haven't raised any money from selling shares, and they haven't spent any money buying back shares.\n\n In February 2016, the Board of Directors authorized a program to repurchase up to $5.0 billion of our common stock, with no fixed expiration.\n There were no repurchases of common stock in 2018, 2019, or 2020.\n\n\n Source:2020 10-K page 60,\n emphasis added\n\nBut for our purposes, this quote shows that Amazon hasn't bought back any stock over the past 3 years. They also haven't spent any money on dividends, which is good because they're a high growth company.\nAmazon has consistently spent money on acquisitions and paying down debt. What's really interesting is that Amazon has built up a lot of spare cash over the past 5 years. Their cash position has risen about $58B since 2016, going from about $26B at the end of 2016 to about $84B at the end of 2020.\nAmazon has a lot more cash than they used to, so we could see future spending go towards a dividend, share buybacks, new acquisitions, or maybe more business investments that will lead to growth.\nValuation\nFirst, I used a discount rate of 7.7% for Amazon because that's what I found the company's weighted average cost of capital, or WACC, to be. I assumed an 8% cost of equity, and Amazon has averaged somewhere around a 20-30% tax rate over the past 10 years.\nSource: Author\nI used a DCF model to find Amazon's value today. In the model down below, you can see in the top 2 red boxes that I projected that the company would have lower revenue growth and strong operating margins.\nThis model projects that Amazon will have over $850B in revenue by 2025. That's absolutely nuts if you think about it, but based on estimated revenue growth, it seems feasible.\nRight now, Walmart(NYSE:WMT)leads the world in revenue with about $550B. Amazon sits in third place for annual revenue, with about $390B. In 5 years, Amazon could easily have the largest revenue of any company in the world.\nSource: Author\nDown at the bottom of this model, you can see there's a red box that projects unlevered FCF margins. This basically measures how much of the company's revenue will become business profits, without including interest or debt payments. In the turquoise box, I applied the discount rate to see what the future cash flows are worth today.\nSource: Author\nToday, it looks like Amazon is slightly overvalued. The model projects that the stock might be about 15% overvalued, and we could expect to make about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years if we invested today.\nThese estimations are based on the future cash flows that the business should generate. I don't hate Amazon or anything, I just don't think that Amazon stock would make a great investment at current prices.\nDown at the bottom, I threw in 2 \"Buy Prices\" where Amazon stock might be more appealing. The idea behind this is that the cheaper AMZN stock gets, the higher returns we can expect.\nThe model projects that you'd make around 15% annual returns at $2,200 per share, and you might make around 22% annual returns at $1,700 per share.\n\"But doesn't it seem unreasonable to set the buy price in the $2,000s when the stock's trading near $3,500?\" It does a little bit. It seems pretty unlikely that Amazon's share price will nose dive right down past $2,000.\nBut the idea is, if we're patient, we might get an opportunity to buy these shares underpriced. Last February, Amazon traded lower than $1,900 (I wish I bought some back then). We'll probably have opportunities in the future to buy Amazon at a discount.\nRecap\nToday, it seems like Amazon is slightly overvalued, because it seems to offer about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years. That doesn't mean you should sell Amazon if you're a long time holder, because Amazon should continue to do well as a leader in E-commerce and cloud computing.\nBut if you're looking for your next stock to invest in, Amazon seems to be too expensive right now. And if you've been eyeing Amazon for a while and you're looking to get in, now's not the best time to get into Amazon.\nEven if we don't invest in the stock, we can still watch Amazon as they become the company with the most revenue in the world. And there's a lot we can learn from studying Amazon and Jeff Bezos. He's a smart dude.\nThank you very much for reading, and I hope that you have a great rest of your day.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":392,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120450565,"gmtCreate":1624333747357,"gmtModify":1634007623270,"author":{"id":"3579326417741698","authorId":"3579326417741698","name":"小霖妹子","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579326417741698","idStr":"3579326417741698"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like and comment (:","listText":"Pls like and comment (:","text":"Pls like and comment 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like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/812283761","repostId":"1185257193","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":481,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":892489663,"gmtCreate":1628683663652,"gmtModify":1633745171894,"author":{"id":"3579326417741698","authorId":"3579326417741698","name":"小霖妹子","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579326417741698","idStr":"3579326417741698"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/892489663","repostId":"1186755271","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":403,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127588402,"gmtCreate":1624856693206,"gmtModify":1633947874705,"author":{"id":"3579326417741698","authorId":"3579326417741698","name":"小霖妹子","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579326417741698","idStr":"3579326417741698"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment pls","listText":"Like and comment pls","text":"Like and comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127588402","repostId":"1161283536","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161283536","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624850034,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1161283536?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-28 11:13","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"The Hong Kong Stock Exchange will resume trading at 1:30 p.m., as the rainstorm signal changes.<blockquote>港交所将于下午1时30分恢复交易，因暴雨信号改变。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161283536","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Hong Kong stocks will resume trading Monday afternoon, after the city’s weather observatory lowered ","content":"<p>Hong Kong stocks will resume trading Monday afternoon, after the city’s weather observatory lowered its rainstorm warning that had earlier prompted the cancellation of the morning session.</p><p><blockquote>香港股市将于周一下午恢复交易，此前该市气象台降低了早些时候导致上午交易取消的暴雨警告。</blockquote></p><p> The Hong Kong Observatory lowered the rainstorm warning to red from black shortly after 11 a.m. local time, meaning stock trading will begin at 1:30 p.m. in accordance with Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Ltd.’s rules. The bourse operator had earlier canceled morning trading of bothsecuritiesand derivatives markets, including Stock Connect due to the black rain warning.</p><p><blockquote>当地时间上午11点过后不久，香港天文台将暴雨警告从黑色下调至红色，这意味着股票交易将于下午1点30分开始。根据香港交易及结算所有限公司的规则。由于黑雨警告，该交易所运营商早些时候取消了证券和衍生品市场的早盘交易，包括沪港通。</blockquote></p><p> Earlier the city’s education bureau suspended classes across Hong Kong due to the severe weather conditions. The government will resume vaccination after lowering the rainstorm warning.</p><p><blockquote>早些时候，由于恶劣的天气条件，该市教育局暂停了全港的课程。政府将在降低暴雨警告后恢复接种疫苗。</blockquote></p><p> Morning trading in the city was lastcanceledin October last year, when tropical storm Nangka prompted authorities to shutter businesses and close schools. Average dailyturnoverin Hong Kong this year stands at around HK$188 billion ($24.2 billion), according to data compiled by Bloomberg.</p><p><blockquote>该市上次取消早盘交易是在去年10月，当时热带风暴南卡促使当局关闭企业和学校。根据彭博社汇编的数据，今年香港的日均营业额约为1,880亿港元（合242亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> When the market reopens in the afternoon, “there will still be plenty of time to digest weekend news and A-share movements,” said Steven Leung, executive director of UoB Kay Hian (Hong Kong) Ltd. “Markets have been relatively stable in both Hong Kong and A shares lately.”</p><p><blockquote>大华继显（香港）有限公司执行董事Steven Leung表示，当市场下午重新开市时，“仍有充足的时间消化周末消息和A股走势。”“最近香港和A股的市场都相对稳定。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Hong Kong Stock Exchange will resume trading at 1:30 p.m., as the rainstorm signal changes.<blockquote>港交所将于下午1时30分恢复交易，因暴雨信号改变。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Hong Kong Stock Exchange will resume trading at 1:30 p.m., as the rainstorm signal changes.<blockquote>港交所将于下午1时30分恢复交易，因暴雨信号改变。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-28 11:13</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Hong Kong stocks will resume trading Monday afternoon, after the city’s weather observatory lowered its rainstorm warning that had earlier prompted the cancellation of the morning session.</p><p><blockquote>香港股市将于周一下午恢复交易，此前该市气象台降低了早些时候导致上午交易取消的暴雨警告。</blockquote></p><p> The Hong Kong Observatory lowered the rainstorm warning to red from black shortly after 11 a.m. local time, meaning stock trading will begin at 1:30 p.m. in accordance with Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Ltd.’s rules. The bourse operator had earlier canceled morning trading of bothsecuritiesand derivatives markets, including Stock Connect due to the black rain warning.</p><p><blockquote>当地时间上午11点过后不久，香港天文台将暴雨警告从黑色下调至红色，这意味着股票交易将于下午1点30分开始。根据香港交易及结算所有限公司的规则。由于黑雨警告，该交易所运营商早些时候取消了证券和衍生品市场的早盘交易，包括沪港通。</blockquote></p><p> Earlier the city’s education bureau suspended classes across Hong Kong due to the severe weather conditions. The government will resume vaccination after lowering the rainstorm warning.</p><p><blockquote>早些时候，由于恶劣的天气条件，该市教育局暂停了全港的课程。政府将在降低暴雨警告后恢复接种疫苗。</blockquote></p><p> Morning trading in the city was lastcanceledin October last year, when tropical storm Nangka prompted authorities to shutter businesses and close schools. Average dailyturnoverin Hong Kong this year stands at around HK$188 billion ($24.2 billion), according to data compiled by Bloomberg.</p><p><blockquote>该市上次取消早盘交易是在去年10月，当时热带风暴南卡促使当局关闭企业和学校。根据彭博社汇编的数据，今年香港的日均营业额约为1,880亿港元（合242亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> When the market reopens in the afternoon, “there will still be plenty of time to digest weekend news and A-share movements,” said Steven Leung, executive director of UoB Kay Hian (Hong Kong) Ltd. “Markets have been relatively stable in both Hong Kong and A shares lately.”</p><p><blockquote>大华继显（香港）有限公司执行董事Steven Leung表示，当市场下午重新开市时，“仍有充足的时间消化周末消息和A股走势。”“最近香港和A股的市场都相对稳定。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"HSI":"恒生指数"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161283536","content_text":"Hong Kong stocks will resume trading Monday afternoon, after the city’s weather observatory lowered its rainstorm warning that had earlier prompted the cancellation of the morning session.\nThe Hong Kong Observatory lowered the rainstorm warning to red from black shortly after 11 a.m. local time, meaning stock trading will begin at 1:30 p.m. in accordance with Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Ltd.’s rules. The bourse operator had earlier canceled morning trading of bothsecuritiesand derivatives markets, including Stock Connect due to the black rain warning.\nEarlier the city’s education bureau suspended classes across Hong Kong due to the severe weather conditions. The government will resume vaccination after lowering the rainstorm warning.\nMorning trading in the city was lastcanceledin October last year, when tropical storm Nangka prompted authorities to shutter businesses and close schools. Average dailyturnoverin Hong Kong this year stands at around HK$188 billion ($24.2 billion), according to data compiled by Bloomberg.\nWhen the market reopens in the afternoon, “there will still be plenty of time to digest weekend news and A-share movements,” said Steven Leung, executive director of UoB Kay Hian (Hong Kong) Ltd. “Markets have been relatively stable in both Hong Kong and A shares lately.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":348,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":881213312,"gmtCreate":1631342472536,"gmtModify":1631890287357,"author":{"id":"3579326417741698","authorId":"3579326417741698","name":"小霖妹子","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579326417741698","idStr":"3579326417741698"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like","listText":"Pls like","text":"Pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/881213312","repostId":"2166372458","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1500,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":814284011,"gmtCreate":1630825294033,"gmtModify":1632905670391,"author":{"id":"3579326417741698","authorId":"3579326417741698","name":"小霖妹子","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579326417741698","idStr":"3579326417741698"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like","listText":"Pls like","text":"Pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/814284011","repostId":"1157895022","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157895022","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630810619,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1157895022?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-05 10:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Beat the market with this quant system that’s very bullish on stocks at record highs<blockquote>利用这个非常看好历史新高股票的量化系统击败市场</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157895022","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Vance Howard’s HCM Tactical Growth Fund moves you in and out of the stock market when prudent to do ","content":"<p>  <b>Vance Howard’s HCM Tactical Growth Fund moves you in and out of the stock market when prudent to do so. So far his team of computer scientists’ strategy has paid off.</b>  Imagine you had a money-making machine to harvest gains in the stock market while you sat back to enjoy life.</p><p><blockquote><b>万斯·霍华德(Vance Howard)的HCM战术增长基金在谨慎的情况下让您进出股市。到目前为止，他的计算机科学家团队的策略已经得到了回报。</b>想象一下，当你坐下来享受生活时，你有一台赚钱机器在股市中收获收益。</blockquote></p><p> That’s everyone’s dream, right? Investor Vance Howard thinks he’s found it.</p><p><blockquote>那是每个人的梦想，对吧？投资者万斯·霍华德认为他已经找到了。</blockquote></p><p> Howard and his small army of computer programmers atHoward Capital Managementin Roswell, Ga., have a quantitative system that posts great returns.</p><p><blockquote>霍华德和他的一小队计算机程序员在佐治亚州罗斯威尔的资本管理公司工作。，有一个量化系统，张贴巨大的回报。</blockquote></p><p> His HCM Tactical Growth Fund&nbsp;HCMGX,+0.35%beats its Russell 1000&nbsp;benchmark index and large-blend fund category by 8.5-10.4 percentage points annualized over the past five years, according to Morningstar. That is no small feat, and not only because it has to overcome a 2.22% fee. Beating the market is simply not easy. His HCM Dividend Sector PlusHCMQX,-0.05%) and HCM Income PlusHCMLX,+0.30%funds post similar outperformance.</p><p><blockquote>根据晨星公司的数据，他的HCM战术增长基金HCMGX,+0.35%在过去五年中的年化增长率比罗素1000基准指数和大型混合基金类别高出8.5-10.4个百分点。这不是一个小壮举，不仅因为它必须克服2.22%的费用。战胜市场并不容易。他的HCM Dividend Sector PlusHCMQX,-0.05%)和HCM Income PlusHCMLX,+0.30%基金也表现类似。</blockquote></p><p> There are drawbacks, which I detail below. (Among them: Potentially long stretches of underperformance and regular tax bills.) But first, what can we learn from this winner?</p><p><blockquote>有缺点，我在下面详述。（其中包括：潜在的长期表现不佳和定期的税单。）但首先，我们能从这位赢家身上学到什么？</blockquote></p><p> So-called quants never share all the details of their proprietary systems, but Howard shares a lot, as you’ll see. And this Texas rancher has a lot of good advice based on “horse sense” — not surprising, given his infectious passion for the markets, and his three decades of experience as a pro.</p><p><blockquote>所谓的量化分析师从不分享他们专有系统的所有细节，但正如你将看到的，霍华德分享了很多。这位德克萨斯州牧场主有很多基于“马的感觉”的好建议——考虑到他对市场富有感染力的热情，以及他三十年的职业经验，这并不奇怪。</blockquote></p><p> Here are five lessons, 12 exchange traded funds (ETFs) and four stocks to consider, from a recent interview with him.</p><p><blockquote>以下是最近对他的采访中的五个教训、12只交易所交易基金(ETF)和四只值得考虑的股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #1: Don’t be emotional</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第一课：不要情绪化</b></blockquote></p><p> It’s no surprise so many people do poorly in the market. Evolution has programmed us to fail. For survival, we’ve learned to run from things that frightens us. And crave more of things that are pleasurable — like sweets or fats to store calories ahead of what might be a long stretch without food. But in the market, acting on the emotions of fear and greed invariably make us do the wrong thing at the wrong time. Sell at the bottom, buy at the top.</p><p><blockquote>难怪这么多人在市场上表现不佳。进化让我们注定要失败。为了生存，我们学会了逃避让我们害怕的事情。渴望更多令人愉快的东西——比如甜食或脂肪，以便在长时间没有食物之前储存卡路里。但在市场中，对恐惧和贪婪的情绪采取行动总是会让我们在错误的时间做错误的事情。底部卖出，顶部买入。</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, we’re programmed to believe being with the crowd brings safety. If you’re a zebra on the Savanna, you are more likely to get picked off by a predator if you go it alone. The problem here is being part of a crowd — and crowd psychology — dumb us down to a purely emotional level. This is why people in crowds do terrible things they would never do on their own. It doesn’t matter how smart you are. When you join a crowd, you lose a lot of IQ points. Base emotions take over.</p><p><blockquote>同样，我们被设定为相信和人群在一起会带来安全。如果你是稀树草原上的斑马，如果你单干，你更有可能被捕食者吃掉。这里的问题是，成为人群的一部分——以及人群心理——让我们变得愚蠢到纯粹的情感层面。这就是为什么人群中的人会做他们自己永远不会做的可怕的事情。你有多聪明并不重要。当你加入一个人群时，你会失去很多智商点。基本情绪占了上风。</blockquote></p><p> To do well in the market, you have to counteract these tendencies. “One of the biggest mistakes individual investors and money managers make is getting emotional,” says Howard. “Let your emotions go.”</p><p><blockquote>要想在市场上做得好，你必须抵制这些倾向。“个人投资者和基金经理犯的最大错误之一就是变得情绪化，”霍华德说。“放下你的情绪。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #2: Have a system and stick to it</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第二课：有一个系统并坚持下去</b></blockquote></p><p> To exorcise emotion, have a system. “And don’t second guess it,” says Howard. “This keeps you from letting the pandemic or Afghanistan scare you out of the market.” He calls his system the HCM-BuyLine. It is basically a momentum and trend-following system — which often works well in the markets.</p><p><blockquote>驱除情绪，要有一个系统。“不要怀疑它，”霍华德说。“这可以防止你被大流行或阿富汗吓出市场。”他评级了他的系统HCM-购买线。它基本上是一个动量和趋势跟踪系统——通常在市场上运行良好。</blockquote></p><p> The HCM-BuyLine basically works like this. First, rather than use the S&amp;P 500SPX,-0.03%or the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.21%,Howard blends several stock indices to create his own index. Then he uses a moving average that tells him whether the market is in an uptrend or downtrend.</p><p><blockquote>HCM-BuyLine基本上是这样工作的。首先，霍华德没有使用标准普尔500SPX（-0.03%）或道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA（-0.21%），而是混合了几个股票指数来创建自己的指数。然后他使用移动平均线来告诉他市场是处于上升趋势还是下降趋势。</blockquote></p><p> When the moving average drops 3.5%, he sells 35%. If it drops 6.5%, he sells another 35%. He rarely goes to 100% cash.</p><p><blockquote>当移动平均线下跌3.5%时，他卖出35%。如果下跌6.5%，他就再卖出35%。他很少100%现金。</blockquote></p><p> “If the BuyLine is positive, we will stay long no matter what,” he says. “We take all the emotion out of the equation by letting the math decide.”</p><p><blockquote>“如果买入线为正，无论如何我们都会长期持有，”他说。“我们通过让数学来决定，将所有情感从等式中剔除。”</blockquote></p><p> Right now, it’s bullish. (More on this below.)</p><p><blockquote>目前，情况看涨。（更多信息见下文。）</blockquote></p><p> Your system also has to tell you when to get back in.</p><p><blockquote>你的系统还必须告诉你什么时候回去。</blockquote></p><p> “That’s where most people screw up,” he says. “They get out of the market, and they don’t know when to get back in.” The HCM-BuyLine gives a buy signal when his custom index trades above its moving average for six consecutive sessions, and then goes on to trade above the high hit during those six days.</p><p><blockquote>“这就是大多数人搞砸的地方，”他说。“他们退出市场，不知道什么时候才能重新进入。”当他的定制指数连续六个交易日高于其移动平均线时，HCM-买入线会发出买入信号，然后继续高于这六天触及的高点。</blockquote></p><p> You don’t need a system that calls exact market tops or bottoms. Instead, the BuyLine keeps Howard out of down markets 85% of the time, and in for 85% of the good times.</p><p><blockquote>你不需要一个评级精确市场顶部或底部的系统。相反，买入线让霍华德在85%的时间里远离低迷的市场，在85%的好时光里远离。</blockquote></p><p> “If we can do that consistently, we have superior returns and a less stressful life,” he says. “Being all in during a bad tape is no fun.”</p><p><blockquote>“如果我们能够始终如一地做到这一点，我们就会获得更高的回报和更少的生活压力，”他说。“在一盘糟糕的磁带中全力以赴一点也不好玩。”</blockquote></p><p> His system is slow to get him out of the market, but quick to get him back in. Not even a 10% correction will necessarily move him out. He’s often buying those pullbacks. Getting back in fast makes sense, because recoveries off bottoms tend to happen fast.</p><p><blockquote>他的系统让他退出市场很慢，但让他回来很快。即使是10%的修正也不一定能让他出局。他经常买入那些回调。快速反弹是有意义的，因为从底部恢复往往会很快。</blockquote></p><p> “The HCM-BuyLine takes all the emotion out of the process,” says Howard.</p><p><blockquote>“HCM-BuyLine消除了整个过程中的所有情绪，”霍华德说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #3: Don’t fight the tape</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第三课：不要和磁带作对</b></blockquote></p><p> This concept is one of the core pieces of wisdom from Marty Zweig’s classic book, “Winning on Wall Street.”</p><p><blockquote>这一概念是马蒂·茨威格经典著作《在华尔街获胜》中的核心智慧之一。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “You have to stay on the right side of market,” agrees Howard. “If you try to trade long in a bad market, it is painful.”</p><p><blockquote>“你必须站在市场的正确一边，”霍华德表示同意。“如果你试图在糟糕的市场中做多，那是很痛苦的。”</blockquote></p><p> In other words, don’t try to be a hero.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，不要试图成为英雄。</blockquote></p><p> “Sometimes, not losing money is where you want to be,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>“有时候，不赔钱才是你想要的，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, don’t turn cautious just because the market hits new highs — like now. You should love new highs, because it is a sign of market strength that may likely endure.</p><p><blockquote>同样，不要仅仅因为市场创下新高就变得谨慎——就像现在这样。你应该喜欢新高，因为这是市场力量的标志，可能会持续下去。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #4: Keep it simple</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第四课：保持简单</b></blockquote></p><p> As you’ll see below, Howard doesn’t use esoteric instruments such as derivatives, swaps or index options. He doesn’t even trade foreign stocks or currencies. This is refreshing for individual investors, because we have a harder time accessing those tools.</p><p><blockquote>正如您将在下面看到的，霍华德不使用衍生品、掉期或指数期权等深奥工具。他甚至不交易外国股票或货币。这对个人投资者来说令人耳目一新，因为我们更难获得这些工具。</blockquote></p><p> “You don’t have to trade crazy stuff,” he says. “You can trade plain-vanilla ETFs and beat everybody out there.”</p><p><blockquote>“你不必交易疯狂的东西，”他说。“你可以交易普通的ETF并击败所有人。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #5: How to trade the current market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第5课：如何交易当前市场</b></blockquote></p><p> First, be long.</p><p><blockquote>首先，做长。</blockquote></p><p> “The HCM-BuyLine is very positive. We are 100% in,” says Howard. “The market is broadening out. It is getting pretty exciting. We do not see it turn around any time soon. We are buying pullbacks.”</p><p><blockquote>“HCM-购买线非常积极。我们100%参与，”霍华德说。“市场正在扩大。它变得相当令人兴奋。我们认为它不会很快好转。我们正在买入回调。”</blockquote></p><p> One bullish signal is all the cash on the sidelines. “If there is any relief in Covid, we may see a big rally. We may end up with a great fall [season].”</p><p><blockquote>一个看涨信号是所有现金都在观望。“如果新冠疫情有所缓解，我们可能会看到大幅反弹。我们可能会以一个伟大的秋季[季节]结束。”</blockquote></p><p> Howard uses momentum indicators to select stocks and ETFs, too. For sectors he favors the following.</p><p><blockquote>霍华德也使用动量指标来选择股票和ETF。对于行业，他倾向于以下几点。</blockquote></p><p> He likes health care, tradable through the iShares US HealthcareIYH,-0.04%and ProShares Ultra Health CareRXL,+0.12%ETFs. He’s turning more bullish on biotech, which he plays via the iShares Biotechnology ETFIBB,-0.11%.</p><p><blockquote>他喜欢医疗保健，可通过iShares US HealthcareIYH(-0.04%)和ProShares Ultra Health CareRXL(+0.12%)ETF进行交易。他变得更加看好生物技术，他通过iShares Biotechnology ETFIBB进行投资，-0.11%。</blockquote></p><p> He likes consumer discretionary tradable through the iShares US Consumer ServicesIYC,-0.30%,and airlines via US Global JetsJETS,-1.17%.He also likes tech exposure via the Invesco QQQ TrustQQQ,+0.31%,iShares US TechnologyIYW,+0.50%and&nbsp;iShares SemiconductorSOXX,+0.75%.</p><p><blockquote>他喜欢通过iShares US Consumer ServicesIYC(-0.30%)进行交易的非必需消费品，以及通过US Global JetsJETS(-1.17%)进行交易的航空公司。他还喜欢通过Invesco QQQ TrustQQQ(+0.31%)、iShares US TechnologyIYW(+0.50%)进行科技投资和iShares半导体SOXX，+0.75%。</blockquote></p><p> He likes small-caps via the Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index FundVBK,+0.07%.And convertible bonds via SPDR Bloomberg Barclays Convertible SecuritiesCWB,+0.64%and iShares Convertible BondICVT,+0.37%.</p><p><blockquote>他喜欢Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index FundVBK，+0.07%的小盘股。以及SPDR Bloomberg Barclays可转换证券CWB，+0.64%和iShares可转换债券ICVT，+0.37%的可转换债券。</blockquote></p><p> As for individual names, he singles out MicrosoftMSFT,-0.00%and AppleAAPL,+0.42%in tech, as well as Amazon.comAMZN,+0.43%and TeslaTSLA,+0.16%.</p><p><blockquote>至于个人名称，他特别提到了科技股中的微软MSFT(-0.00%)和苹果AAPL(+0.42%)，以及亚马逊MAMZN(+0.43%)和特斯拉TSLA(+0.16%)。</blockquote></p><p> Also consider Howard’s two ETFs: The HCM Defender 100 IndexQQH,+0.62%and HCM Defender 500 IndexLGH,+1.32%.</p><p><blockquote>另请考虑Howard的两只ETF：HCM Defender 100 IndexQQH，+0.62%和HCM Defender 500 IndexLGH，+1.32%。</blockquote></p><p> He prefers to add to holdings on 1%-3% dips.</p><p><blockquote>他更喜欢在下跌1%-3%时增持。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A few drawbacks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一些缺点</b></blockquote></p><p> His HCM Tactical Growth fund has a history of posting two-year stretches of underperformance of 1.5% to 8.8%, since it was launched in 2015. The fund then came roaring back to net the very positive five-year outperformance cited above. Investing in his system can require patience.</p><p><blockquote>他的HCM战术增长基金自2015年推出以来，曾连续两年表现不佳，涨幅为1.5%至8.8%。随后，该基金卷土重来，实现了上述非常积极的五年优异表现。投资他的系统需要耐心。</blockquote></p><p> Every manager, including Warren Buffett, can have a stretch of underperformance, says Howard.</p><p><blockquote>霍华德说，每个经理人，包括沃伦·巴菲特，都可能有一段时间表现不佳。</blockquote></p><p> “We are in the odds game,” he says. “Even in the odds game, you can have a bad hand or two thrown at you.”</p><p><blockquote>“我们正处于赔率游戏中，”他说。“即使在赔率游戏中，你也可能会遇到一两手糟糕的牌。”</blockquote></p><p> Another challenge is the high turnover, which is 140% a year for Tactical Growth. This means Uncle Sam takes a big cut in the good years. So if you buy Howard’s funds, you may want to do so in a tax-protected account.</p><p><blockquote>另一个挑战是高流动率，战术增长每年140%。这意味着山姆大叔在好年景中会得到很大的提成。因此，如果您购买霍华德的基金，您可能希望在避税账户中购买。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Beat the market with this quant system that’s very bullish on stocks at record highs<blockquote>利用这个非常看好历史新高股票的量化系统击败市场</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBeat the market with this quant system that’s very bullish on stocks at record highs<blockquote>利用这个非常看好历史新高股票的量化系统击败市场</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-05 10:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>Vance Howard’s HCM Tactical Growth Fund moves you in and out of the stock market when prudent to do so. So far his team of computer scientists’ strategy has paid off.</b>  Imagine you had a money-making machine to harvest gains in the stock market while you sat back to enjoy life.</p><p><blockquote><b>万斯·霍华德(Vance Howard)的HCM战术增长基金在谨慎的情况下让您进出股市。到目前为止，他的计算机科学家团队的策略已经得到了回报。</b>想象一下，当你坐下来享受生活时，你有一台赚钱机器在股市中收获收益。</blockquote></p><p> That’s everyone’s dream, right? Investor Vance Howard thinks he’s found it.</p><p><blockquote>那是每个人的梦想，对吧？投资者万斯·霍华德认为他已经找到了。</blockquote></p><p> Howard and his small army of computer programmers atHoward Capital Managementin Roswell, Ga., have a quantitative system that posts great returns.</p><p><blockquote>霍华德和他的一小队计算机程序员在佐治亚州罗斯威尔的资本管理公司工作。，有一个量化系统，张贴巨大的回报。</blockquote></p><p> His HCM Tactical Growth Fund&nbsp;HCMGX,+0.35%beats its Russell 1000&nbsp;benchmark index and large-blend fund category by 8.5-10.4 percentage points annualized over the past five years, according to Morningstar. That is no small feat, and not only because it has to overcome a 2.22% fee. Beating the market is simply not easy. His HCM Dividend Sector PlusHCMQX,-0.05%) and HCM Income PlusHCMLX,+0.30%funds post similar outperformance.</p><p><blockquote>根据晨星公司的数据，他的HCM战术增长基金HCMGX,+0.35%在过去五年中的年化增长率比罗素1000基准指数和大型混合基金类别高出8.5-10.4个百分点。这不是一个小壮举，不仅因为它必须克服2.22%的费用。战胜市场并不容易。他的HCM Dividend Sector PlusHCMQX,-0.05%)和HCM Income PlusHCMLX,+0.30%基金也表现类似。</blockquote></p><p> There are drawbacks, which I detail below. (Among them: Potentially long stretches of underperformance and regular tax bills.) But first, what can we learn from this winner?</p><p><blockquote>有缺点，我在下面详述。（其中包括：潜在的长期表现不佳和定期的税单。）但首先，我们能从这位赢家身上学到什么？</blockquote></p><p> So-called quants never share all the details of their proprietary systems, but Howard shares a lot, as you’ll see. And this Texas rancher has a lot of good advice based on “horse sense” — not surprising, given his infectious passion for the markets, and his three decades of experience as a pro.</p><p><blockquote>所谓的量化分析师从不分享他们专有系统的所有细节，但正如你将看到的，霍华德分享了很多。这位德克萨斯州牧场主有很多基于“马的感觉”的好建议——考虑到他对市场富有感染力的热情，以及他三十年的职业经验，这并不奇怪。</blockquote></p><p> Here are five lessons, 12 exchange traded funds (ETFs) and four stocks to consider, from a recent interview with him.</p><p><blockquote>以下是最近对他的采访中的五个教训、12只交易所交易基金(ETF)和四只值得考虑的股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #1: Don’t be emotional</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第一课：不要情绪化</b></blockquote></p><p> It’s no surprise so many people do poorly in the market. Evolution has programmed us to fail. For survival, we’ve learned to run from things that frightens us. And crave more of things that are pleasurable — like sweets or fats to store calories ahead of what might be a long stretch without food. But in the market, acting on the emotions of fear and greed invariably make us do the wrong thing at the wrong time. Sell at the bottom, buy at the top.</p><p><blockquote>难怪这么多人在市场上表现不佳。进化让我们注定要失败。为了生存，我们学会了逃避让我们害怕的事情。渴望更多令人愉快的东西——比如甜食或脂肪，以便在长时间没有食物之前储存卡路里。但在市场中，对恐惧和贪婪的情绪采取行动总是会让我们在错误的时间做错误的事情。底部卖出，顶部买入。</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, we’re programmed to believe being with the crowd brings safety. If you’re a zebra on the Savanna, you are more likely to get picked off by a predator if you go it alone. The problem here is being part of a crowd — and crowd psychology — dumb us down to a purely emotional level. This is why people in crowds do terrible things they would never do on their own. It doesn’t matter how smart you are. When you join a crowd, you lose a lot of IQ points. Base emotions take over.</p><p><blockquote>同样，我们被设定为相信和人群在一起会带来安全。如果你是稀树草原上的斑马，如果你单干，你更有可能被捕食者吃掉。这里的问题是，成为人群的一部分——以及人群心理——让我们变得愚蠢到纯粹的情感层面。这就是为什么人群中的人会做他们自己永远不会做的可怕的事情。你有多聪明并不重要。当你加入一个人群时，你会失去很多智商点。基本情绪占了上风。</blockquote></p><p> To do well in the market, you have to counteract these tendencies. “One of the biggest mistakes individual investors and money managers make is getting emotional,” says Howard. “Let your emotions go.”</p><p><blockquote>要想在市场上做得好，你必须抵制这些倾向。“个人投资者和基金经理犯的最大错误之一就是变得情绪化，”霍华德说。“放下你的情绪。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #2: Have a system and stick to it</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第二课：有一个系统并坚持下去</b></blockquote></p><p> To exorcise emotion, have a system. “And don’t second guess it,” says Howard. “This keeps you from letting the pandemic or Afghanistan scare you out of the market.” He calls his system the HCM-BuyLine. It is basically a momentum and trend-following system — which often works well in the markets.</p><p><blockquote>驱除情绪，要有一个系统。“不要怀疑它，”霍华德说。“这可以防止你被大流行或阿富汗吓出市场。”他评级了他的系统HCM-购买线。它基本上是一个动量和趋势跟踪系统——通常在市场上运行良好。</blockquote></p><p> The HCM-BuyLine basically works like this. First, rather than use the S&amp;P 500SPX,-0.03%or the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.21%,Howard blends several stock indices to create his own index. Then he uses a moving average that tells him whether the market is in an uptrend or downtrend.</p><p><blockquote>HCM-BuyLine基本上是这样工作的。首先，霍华德没有使用标准普尔500SPX（-0.03%）或道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA（-0.21%），而是混合了几个股票指数来创建自己的指数。然后他使用移动平均线来告诉他市场是处于上升趋势还是下降趋势。</blockquote></p><p> When the moving average drops 3.5%, he sells 35%. If it drops 6.5%, he sells another 35%. He rarely goes to 100% cash.</p><p><blockquote>当移动平均线下跌3.5%时，他卖出35%。如果下跌6.5%，他就再卖出35%。他很少100%现金。</blockquote></p><p> “If the BuyLine is positive, we will stay long no matter what,” he says. “We take all the emotion out of the equation by letting the math decide.”</p><p><blockquote>“如果买入线为正，无论如何我们都会长期持有，”他说。“我们通过让数学来决定，将所有情感从等式中剔除。”</blockquote></p><p> Right now, it’s bullish. (More on this below.)</p><p><blockquote>目前，情况看涨。（更多信息见下文。）</blockquote></p><p> Your system also has to tell you when to get back in.</p><p><blockquote>你的系统还必须告诉你什么时候回去。</blockquote></p><p> “That’s where most people screw up,” he says. “They get out of the market, and they don’t know when to get back in.” The HCM-BuyLine gives a buy signal when his custom index trades above its moving average for six consecutive sessions, and then goes on to trade above the high hit during those six days.</p><p><blockquote>“这就是大多数人搞砸的地方，”他说。“他们退出市场，不知道什么时候才能重新进入。”当他的定制指数连续六个交易日高于其移动平均线时，HCM-买入线会发出买入信号，然后继续高于这六天触及的高点。</blockquote></p><p> You don’t need a system that calls exact market tops or bottoms. Instead, the BuyLine keeps Howard out of down markets 85% of the time, and in for 85% of the good times.</p><p><blockquote>你不需要一个评级精确市场顶部或底部的系统。相反，买入线让霍华德在85%的时间里远离低迷的市场，在85%的好时光里远离。</blockquote></p><p> “If we can do that consistently, we have superior returns and a less stressful life,” he says. “Being all in during a bad tape is no fun.”</p><p><blockquote>“如果我们能够始终如一地做到这一点，我们就会获得更高的回报和更少的生活压力，”他说。“在一盘糟糕的磁带中全力以赴一点也不好玩。”</blockquote></p><p> His system is slow to get him out of the market, but quick to get him back in. Not even a 10% correction will necessarily move him out. He’s often buying those pullbacks. Getting back in fast makes sense, because recoveries off bottoms tend to happen fast.</p><p><blockquote>他的系统让他退出市场很慢，但让他回来很快。即使是10%的修正也不一定能让他出局。他经常买入那些回调。快速反弹是有意义的，因为从底部恢复往往会很快。</blockquote></p><p> “The HCM-BuyLine takes all the emotion out of the process,” says Howard.</p><p><blockquote>“HCM-BuyLine消除了整个过程中的所有情绪，”霍华德说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #3: Don’t fight the tape</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第三课：不要和磁带作对</b></blockquote></p><p> This concept is one of the core pieces of wisdom from Marty Zweig’s classic book, “Winning on Wall Street.”</p><p><blockquote>这一概念是马蒂·茨威格经典著作《在华尔街获胜》中的核心智慧之一。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “You have to stay on the right side of market,” agrees Howard. “If you try to trade long in a bad market, it is painful.”</p><p><blockquote>“你必须站在市场的正确一边，”霍华德表示同意。“如果你试图在糟糕的市场中做多，那是很痛苦的。”</blockquote></p><p> In other words, don’t try to be a hero.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，不要试图成为英雄。</blockquote></p><p> “Sometimes, not losing money is where you want to be,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>“有时候，不赔钱才是你想要的，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, don’t turn cautious just because the market hits new highs — like now. You should love new highs, because it is a sign of market strength that may likely endure.</p><p><blockquote>同样，不要仅仅因为市场创下新高就变得谨慎——就像现在这样。你应该喜欢新高，因为这是市场力量的标志，可能会持续下去。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #4: Keep it simple</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第四课：保持简单</b></blockquote></p><p> As you’ll see below, Howard doesn’t use esoteric instruments such as derivatives, swaps or index options. He doesn’t even trade foreign stocks or currencies. This is refreshing for individual investors, because we have a harder time accessing those tools.</p><p><blockquote>正如您将在下面看到的，霍华德不使用衍生品、掉期或指数期权等深奥工具。他甚至不交易外国股票或货币。这对个人投资者来说令人耳目一新，因为我们更难获得这些工具。</blockquote></p><p> “You don’t have to trade crazy stuff,” he says. “You can trade plain-vanilla ETFs and beat everybody out there.”</p><p><blockquote>“你不必交易疯狂的东西，”他说。“你可以交易普通的ETF并击败所有人。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #5: How to trade the current market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第5课：如何交易当前市场</b></blockquote></p><p> First, be long.</p><p><blockquote>首先，做长。</blockquote></p><p> “The HCM-BuyLine is very positive. We are 100% in,” says Howard. “The market is broadening out. It is getting pretty exciting. We do not see it turn around any time soon. We are buying pullbacks.”</p><p><blockquote>“HCM-购买线非常积极。我们100%参与，”霍华德说。“市场正在扩大。它变得相当令人兴奋。我们认为它不会很快好转。我们正在买入回调。”</blockquote></p><p> One bullish signal is all the cash on the sidelines. “If there is any relief in Covid, we may see a big rally. We may end up with a great fall [season].”</p><p><blockquote>一个看涨信号是所有现金都在观望。“如果新冠疫情有所缓解，我们可能会看到大幅反弹。我们可能会以一个伟大的秋季[季节]结束。”</blockquote></p><p> Howard uses momentum indicators to select stocks and ETFs, too. For sectors he favors the following.</p><p><blockquote>霍华德也使用动量指标来选择股票和ETF。对于行业，他倾向于以下几点。</blockquote></p><p> He likes health care, tradable through the iShares US HealthcareIYH,-0.04%and ProShares Ultra Health CareRXL,+0.12%ETFs. He’s turning more bullish on biotech, which he plays via the iShares Biotechnology ETFIBB,-0.11%.</p><p><blockquote>他喜欢医疗保健，可通过iShares US HealthcareIYH(-0.04%)和ProShares Ultra Health CareRXL(+0.12%)ETF进行交易。他变得更加看好生物技术，他通过iShares Biotechnology ETFIBB进行投资，-0.11%。</blockquote></p><p> He likes consumer discretionary tradable through the iShares US Consumer ServicesIYC,-0.30%,and airlines via US Global JetsJETS,-1.17%.He also likes tech exposure via the Invesco QQQ TrustQQQ,+0.31%,iShares US TechnologyIYW,+0.50%and&nbsp;iShares SemiconductorSOXX,+0.75%.</p><p><blockquote>他喜欢通过iShares US Consumer ServicesIYC(-0.30%)进行交易的非必需消费品，以及通过US Global JetsJETS(-1.17%)进行交易的航空公司。他还喜欢通过Invesco QQQ TrustQQQ(+0.31%)、iShares US TechnologyIYW(+0.50%)进行科技投资和iShares半导体SOXX，+0.75%。</blockquote></p><p> He likes small-caps via the Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index FundVBK,+0.07%.And convertible bonds via SPDR Bloomberg Barclays Convertible SecuritiesCWB,+0.64%and iShares Convertible BondICVT,+0.37%.</p><p><blockquote>他喜欢Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index FundVBK，+0.07%的小盘股。以及SPDR Bloomberg Barclays可转换证券CWB，+0.64%和iShares可转换债券ICVT，+0.37%的可转换债券。</blockquote></p><p> As for individual names, he singles out MicrosoftMSFT,-0.00%and AppleAAPL,+0.42%in tech, as well as Amazon.comAMZN,+0.43%and TeslaTSLA,+0.16%.</p><p><blockquote>至于个人名称，他特别提到了科技股中的微软MSFT(-0.00%)和苹果AAPL(+0.42%)，以及亚马逊MAMZN(+0.43%)和特斯拉TSLA(+0.16%)。</blockquote></p><p> Also consider Howard’s two ETFs: The HCM Defender 100 IndexQQH,+0.62%and HCM Defender 500 IndexLGH,+1.32%.</p><p><blockquote>另请考虑Howard的两只ETF：HCM Defender 100 IndexQQH，+0.62%和HCM Defender 500 IndexLGH，+1.32%。</blockquote></p><p> He prefers to add to holdings on 1%-3% dips.</p><p><blockquote>他更喜欢在下跌1%-3%时增持。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A few drawbacks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一些缺点</b></blockquote></p><p> His HCM Tactical Growth fund has a history of posting two-year stretches of underperformance of 1.5% to 8.8%, since it was launched in 2015. The fund then came roaring back to net the very positive five-year outperformance cited above. Investing in his system can require patience.</p><p><blockquote>他的HCM战术增长基金自2015年推出以来，曾连续两年表现不佳，涨幅为1.5%至8.8%。随后，该基金卷土重来，实现了上述非常积极的五年优异表现。投资他的系统需要耐心。</blockquote></p><p> Every manager, including Warren Buffett, can have a stretch of underperformance, says Howard.</p><p><blockquote>霍华德说，每个经理人，包括沃伦·巴菲特，都可能有一段时间表现不佳。</blockquote></p><p> “We are in the odds game,” he says. “Even in the odds game, you can have a bad hand or two thrown at you.”</p><p><blockquote>“我们正处于赔率游戏中，”他说。“即使在赔率游戏中，你也可能会遇到一两手糟糕的牌。”</blockquote></p><p> Another challenge is the high turnover, which is 140% a year for Tactical Growth. This means Uncle Sam takes a big cut in the good years. So if you buy Howard’s funds, you may want to do so in a tax-protected account.</p><p><blockquote>另一个挑战是高流动率，战术增长每年140%。这意味着山姆大叔在好年景中会得到很大的提成。因此，如果您购买霍华德的基金，您可能希望在避税账户中购买。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/beat-the-market-with-this-quant-system-thats-very-bullish-on-stocks-at-record-highs-11630761531?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/beat-the-market-with-this-quant-system-thats-very-bullish-on-stocks-at-record-highs-11630761531?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157895022","content_text":"Vance Howard’s HCM Tactical Growth Fund moves you in and out of the stock market when prudent to do so. So far his team of computer scientists’ strategy has paid off.\n\nImagine you had a money-making machine to harvest gains in the stock market while you sat back to enjoy life.\nThat’s everyone’s dream, right? Investor Vance Howard thinks he’s found it.\nHoward and his small army of computer programmers atHoward Capital Managementin Roswell, Ga., have a quantitative system that posts great returns.\nHis HCM Tactical Growth Fund HCMGX,+0.35%beats its Russell 1000 benchmark index and large-blend fund category by 8.5-10.4 percentage points annualized over the past five years, according to Morningstar. That is no small feat, and not only because it has to overcome a 2.22% fee. Beating the market is simply not easy. His HCM Dividend Sector PlusHCMQX,-0.05%) and HCM Income PlusHCMLX,+0.30%funds post similar outperformance.\nThere are drawbacks, which I detail below. (Among them: Potentially long stretches of underperformance and regular tax bills.) But first, what can we learn from this winner?\nSo-called quants never share all the details of their proprietary systems, but Howard shares a lot, as you’ll see. And this Texas rancher has a lot of good advice based on “horse sense” — not surprising, given his infectious passion for the markets, and his three decades of experience as a pro.\nHere are five lessons, 12 exchange traded funds (ETFs) and four stocks to consider, from a recent interview with him.\nLesson #1: Don’t be emotional\nIt’s no surprise so many people do poorly in the market. Evolution has programmed us to fail. For survival, we’ve learned to run from things that frightens us. And crave more of things that are pleasurable — like sweets or fats to store calories ahead of what might be a long stretch without food. But in the market, acting on the emotions of fear and greed invariably make us do the wrong thing at the wrong time. Sell at the bottom, buy at the top.\nLikewise, we’re programmed to believe being with the crowd brings safety. If you’re a zebra on the Savanna, you are more likely to get picked off by a predator if you go it alone. The problem here is being part of a crowd — and crowd psychology — dumb us down to a purely emotional level. This is why people in crowds do terrible things they would never do on their own. It doesn’t matter how smart you are. When you join a crowd, you lose a lot of IQ points. Base emotions take over.\nTo do well in the market, you have to counteract these tendencies. “One of the biggest mistakes individual investors and money managers make is getting emotional,” says Howard. “Let your emotions go.”\nLesson #2: Have a system and stick to it\nTo exorcise emotion, have a system. “And don’t second guess it,” says Howard. “This keeps you from letting the pandemic or Afghanistan scare you out of the market.” He calls his system the HCM-BuyLine. It is basically a momentum and trend-following system — which often works well in the markets.\nThe HCM-BuyLine basically works like this. First, rather than use the S&P 500SPX,-0.03%or the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.21%,Howard blends several stock indices to create his own index. Then he uses a moving average that tells him whether the market is in an uptrend or downtrend.\nWhen the moving average drops 3.5%, he sells 35%. If it drops 6.5%, he sells another 35%. He rarely goes to 100% cash.\n“If the BuyLine is positive, we will stay long no matter what,” he says. “We take all the emotion out of the equation by letting the math decide.”\nRight now, it’s bullish. (More on this below.)\nYour system also has to tell you when to get back in.\n“That’s where most people screw up,” he says. “They get out of the market, and they don’t know when to get back in.” The HCM-BuyLine gives a buy signal when his custom index trades above its moving average for six consecutive sessions, and then goes on to trade above the high hit during those six days.\nYou don’t need a system that calls exact market tops or bottoms. Instead, the BuyLine keeps Howard out of down markets 85% of the time, and in for 85% of the good times.\n“If we can do that consistently, we have superior returns and a less stressful life,” he says. “Being all in during a bad tape is no fun.”\nHis system is slow to get him out of the market, but quick to get him back in. Not even a 10% correction will necessarily move him out. He’s often buying those pullbacks. Getting back in fast makes sense, because recoveries off bottoms tend to happen fast.\n“The HCM-BuyLine takes all the emotion out of the process,” says Howard.\nLesson #3: Don’t fight the tape\nThis concept is one of the core pieces of wisdom from Marty Zweig’s classic book, “Winning on Wall Street.”\n“You have to stay on the right side of market,” agrees Howard. “If you try to trade long in a bad market, it is painful.”\nIn other words, don’t try to be a hero.\n“Sometimes, not losing money is where you want to be,” he says.\nLikewise, don’t turn cautious just because the market hits new highs — like now. You should love new highs, because it is a sign of market strength that may likely endure.\nLesson #4: Keep it simple\nAs you’ll see below, Howard doesn’t use esoteric instruments such as derivatives, swaps or index options. He doesn’t even trade foreign stocks or currencies. This is refreshing for individual investors, because we have a harder time accessing those tools.\n“You don’t have to trade crazy stuff,” he says. “You can trade plain-vanilla ETFs and beat everybody out there.”\nLesson #5: How to trade the current market\nFirst, be long.\n“The HCM-BuyLine is very positive. We are 100% in,” says Howard. “The market is broadening out. It is getting pretty exciting. We do not see it turn around any time soon. We are buying pullbacks.”\nOne bullish signal is all the cash on the sidelines. “If there is any relief in Covid, we may see a big rally. We may end up with a great fall [season].”\nHoward uses momentum indicators to select stocks and ETFs, too. For sectors he favors the following.\nHe likes health care, tradable through the iShares US HealthcareIYH,-0.04%and ProShares Ultra Health CareRXL,+0.12%ETFs. He’s turning more bullish on biotech, which he plays via the iShares Biotechnology ETFIBB,-0.11%.\nHe likes consumer discretionary tradable through the iShares US Consumer ServicesIYC,-0.30%,and airlines via US Global JetsJETS,-1.17%.He also likes tech exposure via the Invesco QQQ TrustQQQ,+0.31%,iShares US TechnologyIYW,+0.50%and iShares SemiconductorSOXX,+0.75%.\nHe likes small-caps via the Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index FundVBK,+0.07%.And convertible bonds via SPDR Bloomberg Barclays Convertible SecuritiesCWB,+0.64%and iShares Convertible BondICVT,+0.37%.\nAs for individual names, he singles out MicrosoftMSFT,-0.00%and AppleAAPL,+0.42%in tech, as well as Amazon.comAMZN,+0.43%and TeslaTSLA,+0.16%.\nAlso consider Howard’s two ETFs: The HCM Defender 100 IndexQQH,+0.62%and HCM Defender 500 IndexLGH,+1.32%.\nHe prefers to add to holdings on 1%-3% dips.\nA few drawbacks\nHis HCM Tactical Growth fund has a history of posting two-year stretches of underperformance of 1.5% to 8.8%, since it was launched in 2015. The fund then came roaring back to net the very positive five-year outperformance cited above. Investing in his system can require patience.\nEvery manager, including Warren Buffett, can have a stretch of underperformance, says Howard.\n“We are in the odds game,” he says. “Even in the odds game, you can have a bad hand or two thrown at you.”\nAnother challenge is the high turnover, which is 140% a year for Tactical Growth. This means Uncle Sam takes a big cut in the good years. So if you buy Howard’s funds, you may want to do so in a tax-protected account.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":337,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":896553493,"gmtCreate":1628595970012,"gmtModify":1633745884765,"author":{"id":"3579326417741698","authorId":"3579326417741698","name":"小霖妹子","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579326417741698","idStr":"3579326417741698"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like thank you","listText":"Pls like thank you","text":"Pls like thank you","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/896553493","repostId":"2158447932","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":446,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124491098,"gmtCreate":1624777158014,"gmtModify":1633948691024,"author":{"id":"3579326417741698","authorId":"3579326417741698","name":"小霖妹子","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579326417741698","idStr":"3579326417741698"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like and comment","listText":"Pls like and comment","text":"Pls like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124491098","repostId":"1172710941","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":266,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126612431,"gmtCreate":1624559044723,"gmtModify":1634004373276,"author":{"id":"3579326417741698","authorId":"3579326417741698","name":"小霖妹子","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579326417741698","idStr":"3579326417741698"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment pls","listText":"Like and comment pls","text":"Like and comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126612431","repostId":"1159660883","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":421,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":886020170,"gmtCreate":1631540096090,"gmtModify":1631890287336,"author":{"id":"3579326417741698","authorId":"3579326417741698","name":"小霖妹子","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579326417741698","idStr":"3579326417741698"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like&nbsp;","listText":"Pls like&nbsp;","text":"Pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/886020170","repostId":"2166303094","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2280,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}