T0000024574的个人主页 - 老虎社区

T0000024574

T0000024574

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IP属地：福建

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3主题

0勋章

2021-11-19

$AXT Inc(AXTI)$[财迷]

2022-06-15

持仓这么久又一季度财报出来了，不知道业绩如何，内心里有千万种的不甘心和割舍，还是认清现实把持仓半年的票清仓吧

2022-08-26

$老虎证券(TIGR)$盘前大涨16%

2022-06-06

$老虎证券(TIGR)$一季度的财报又要出炉了，不知下半年的趋势如何

2022-06-05

$吉宝基础设施信托(A7RU.SI)$[爱你]

2023-10-27

现在的A股和港股巿场，多少都会受美国政策，利率及俄乌和巴以冲突等各种因素所带来的影响。巿场受到这些不确定因素，大部分个股的趋势都在下行的轨道上，很难让投资者们大踏步进场，都在观望中艰难的原地踏步[捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸]

2022-03-24

$老虎证券(TIGR)$两百多天的等待不容易啊

2021-11-21

$老虎证券(TIGR)$[心碎]

2022-06-23

$水滴(WDH)$这个水滴半死不活的把我这么吊得就是没机会出逃，一天涨一天跌就这样吊得半空中

2021-06-28

$小米集团-W(01810)$决定卖了打新股

2021-07-16

$小米集团-W(01810)$终于看到点盈利

2022-06-14

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看

@小虎活动:小虎8岁啦！我们准备了时光机和大家一起去冒险，快来在小虎探险中寻找惊喜礼物吧！精彩的小故事都在小虎的时光奇旅中，你能找到其中的奥秘吗？在时光奇旅里尽可能多的收集金币吧，它们将是你的基础游戏积分。此外，每周将会开放一个新的支线关卡，这里有无尽的宝藏等你探索。想要获得更多游戏积分就来3个支线关卡多试试吧，积分可以兑换多重奖励，奖品总价值高达20万美元!记得要在旅程中收集点亮“T.I.G.E.R”，才可以有机会获得8周年限量礼盒和高额股票代金券哦。在哪里能找到它们呢？快来游戏里找找看吧～～快来搭乘小虎时光机与我们一起发掘属于自己的大事记～悄悄话：要坚持每日来签到呦！多点点“分享”按钮试试看，说不定有惊喜～快来领取你的游戏秘籍活动时间：2022年6月14日 16:00:00 -- 2022年7月10日 23:59:59戳我立即参与活动戳我了解活动规则

2022-06-07

$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$丫霸

2022-05-31

$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$五月份的最后几天中概股有止跌企稳的现象，但对各种因素还是不能麻目乐观

2022-05-20

$老虎证券(TIGR)$想要盈利还有很长的时间

2021-11-24

把AXT和水滴清打仓掉，把老虎🐯给我拿下[美金] [美金] [美金] [美金]

2022-12-22

$水滴(WDH)$ 坚持这么久的死杠，终于这次出手了，虽然只赚了一点点小利，但离亏损的部分又少了一点，值得给自己一个点赞

2022-06-28

$水滴(WDH)$不省心的水滴，到底哪里出错了半死不活的[流泪] [流泪] [流泪]

2022-06-02

$吉宝基础设施信托(A7RU.SI)$这个新加坡股票要持有多长才可以卖

2021-11-24

$奈雪的茶(02150)$开始上涨了就是没资金

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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[得意] [得意]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/598b87ae0983fb14433328ee486d36bc","width":"720","height":"1458"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/259865891373352","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":207,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":234990877790416,"gmtCreate":1698392750155,"gmtModify":1698392752177,"author":{"id":"3579228928115385","authorId":"3579228928115385","name":"T0000024574","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a194ceed49c6a5c399d3e4f33fd1cf7f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"现在的A股和港股巿场，多少都会受美国政策，利率及俄乌和巴以冲突等各种因素所带来的影响。巿场受到这些不确定因素，大部分个股的趋势都在下行的轨道上，很难让投资者们大踏步进场，都在观望中艰难的原地踏步[捂脸]&nbsp;&nbsp;[捂脸]&nbsp;&nbsp;[捂脸]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"现在的A股和港股巿场，多少都会受美国政策，利率及俄乌和巴以冲突等各种因素所带来的影响。巿场受到这些不确定因素，大部分个股的趋势都在下行的轨道上，很难让投资者们大踏步进场，都在观望中艰难的原地踏步[捂脸]&nbsp;&nbsp;[捂脸]&nbsp;&nbsp;[捂脸]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"现在的A股和港股巿场，多少都会受美国政策，利率及俄乌和巴以冲突等各种因素所带来的影响。巿场受到这些不确定因素，大部分个股的趋势都在下行的轨道上，很难让投资者们大踏步进场，都在观望中艰难的原地踏步[捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/234990877790416","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":558,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3579228928115385","authorId":"3579228928115385","name":"T0000024574","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a194ceed49c6a5c399d3e4f33fd1cf7f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"content":"A股，港股大部分个股趋势都是在下行之中，看不到有多少个股可操作","text":"A股，港股大部分个股趋势都是在下行之中，看不到有多少个股可操作","html":"A股，港股大部分个股趋势都是在下行之中，看不到有多少个股可操作"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":623707843,"gmtCreate":1671643334582,"gmtModify":1671643338529,"author":{"id":"3579228928115385","authorId":"3579228928115385","name":"T0000024574","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a194ceed49c6a5c399d3e4f33fd1cf7f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDH\">$水滴(WDH)$ &nbsp;</a>坚持这么久的死杠，终于这次出手了，虽然只赚了一点点小利，但离亏损的部分又少了一点，值得给自己一个点赞","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDH\">$水滴(WDH)$ &nbsp;</a>坚持这么久的死杠，终于这次出手了，虽然只赚了一点点小利，但离亏损的部分又少了一点，值得给自己一个点赞","text":"$水滴(WDH)$ 坚持这么久的死杠，终于这次出手了，虽然只赚了一点点小利，但离亏损的部分又少了一点，值得给自己一个点赞","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a92274e1f26a0d4dc90590bd21bae50c","width":"720","height":"1280"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/623707843","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1124,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":629940671,"gmtCreate":1670230358693,"gmtModify":1670230360395,"author":{"id":"3579228928115385","authorId":"3579228928115385","name":"T0000024574","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a194ceed49c6a5c399d3e4f33fd1cf7f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"今天中概股大部分行情大涨","listText":"今天中概股大部分行情大涨","text":"今天中概股大部分行情大涨","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/629940671","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":789,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":629929466,"gmtCreate":1670221975355,"gmtModify":1670221976286,"author":{"id":"3579228928115385","authorId":"3579228928115385","name":"T0000024574","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a194ceed49c6a5c399d3e4f33fd1cf7f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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20:01","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"中国证监会、财政部与美国监管机构签署审计监管合作协议","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1164160353","media":"证监会","summary":"8月26日，中国证券监督管理委员会、中华人民共和国财政部于2022年8月26日与美国公众公司会计监督委员会（PCAOB）签署审计监管合作协议，将于近期启动相关合作。合作协议依据两国法律法规，尊重国际通","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>8月26日，中国证券监督管理委员会、中华人民共和国财政部于2022年8月26日与美国公众公司会计监督委员会（PCAOB）签署审计监管合作协议，将于近期启动相关合作。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aca380ee94984e987b8175a04eb2d0e1\" tg-width=\"1558\" tg-height=\"687\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>合作协议依据两国法律法规，尊重国际通行做法，按照对等互利原则，就双方对相关会计师事务所合作开展监管检查和调查活动作出了明确约定，形成了符合双方法规和监管要求的合作框架。</p><p>合作协议的签署，是中美双方监管机构在解决审计监管合作这一共同关切问题上迈出的重要一步，为下一阶段双方积极、专业、务实推进合作奠定了基础。依法推进跨境审计监管合作，将有利于进一步提高会计师事务所执业质量，保护投资者合法权益，也有利于为企业依法合规开展跨境上市活动营造良好的国际监管环境。</p><blockquote><b>中国证监会有关负责人就签署中美审计监管合作协议答记者问</b></blockquote><p><b>1.问：签署中美审计监管合作协议的意义是什么？</b></p><p>答：签署中美审计监管合作协议，是双方在解决中美审计监管合作问题上迈出的重要一步，为双方依法对共同监管范围内的会计师事务所开展日常检查和执法合作建立了监管合作机制，为下一步双方在符合各自法律规定和监管要求的前提下对等、高效开展合作奠定了基础，符合资本市场监管合作的国际通行做法。中美双方开展审计监管合作，对于提高会计师事务所执业质量、保护投资者合法权益具有积极意义，也有助于为企业依法依规开展跨境上市活动营造良好的监管环境。</p><p><b>2.问：中美审计监管合作协议的主要内容是什么？</b></p><p>答：此次签署的中美审计监管合作协议，是在双方2013年执法合作谅解备忘录及2016年试点检查合作备忘录的基础上，根据双方国内法律法规和监管要求，参照相关国际通行做法，总结以往双方合作经验，经过反复磋商达成的。合作协议主要就双方对相关会计师事务所合作开展日常检查与执法调查作出了具体安排，约定了合作目的、合作范围、合作形式、信息使用、特定数据保护等重要事项。</p><p>合作协议包括以下重点内容：一是确立对等原则。协议条款对双方具有同等约束力。中美双方均可依据法定职责，对另一方辖区内相关事务所开展检查和调查，被请求方应在法律允许范围内尽力提供充分协助。二是明确合作范围。合作协议范围包括协助对方开展对相关事务所的检查和调查。其中，中方提供协助的范围也涉及部分为中概股提供审计服务、且审计底稿存放在内地的香港事务所。三是明确协作方式。双方将提前就检查和调查活动计划进行沟通协调，美方须通过中方监管部门获取审计底稿等文件，在中方参与和协助下对会计师事务所相关人员开展访谈和问询。</p><p><b>3.问：开展跨境审计监管合作的目的是什么？</b></p><p>答：企业在资本市场发行证券和上市，应定期公开发布财务报告，为投资者知情决策提供信息。各国法律法规均要求会计师事务所对相关财务报告进行审计，并要求监管机构对相关会计师事务所进行监管，以确保其依法依规履行好「守门人」职责，提高资本市场信息披露质量，维护投资者合法权益。</p><p>在企业跨境上市的情形下，为这些企业提供审计服务的本地会计师事务所一般需要在上市地注册，并接受上市地监管部门的监管。由于这些事务所可能遍布全球各地，上市地监管部门为对它们实施监管，必须通过与相关事务所本地的监管机构建立合作机制，开展跨境监管合作，这是全球资本市场的通行做法。如不能有效开展跨境审计监管合作，就难以确信相关事务所审计工作是否符合监管要求，相关上市公司财报质量就缺少一层保障，会引发投资者质疑，甚至根据上市地法律法规，相关公司证券无法继续在该地上市交易。</p><p>随着中国资本市场双向开放逐步深化，企业跨境上市和会计师事务所跨境展业日益频繁，目前，有超过200家中国公司在美国资本市场上市，有30余家中国境内会计师事务所在PCAOB注册，能够为在美上市的中国公司提供审计服务。PCAOB为履行对上述事务所的审计监管职责，需要与中国监管部门建立合作关系，实施跨境监管合作。同样，中国监管机构有需要对自身监管范围内的美国会计师事务所实施审计监管的，也要通过监管合作机制进行。这是国际惯例，双方都需要这个机制。保留中概股在美上市，对投资者有利，对上市公司有利，对中美双方都有利，是一种多赢的制度安排。这是双方能够坐下来谈判并达成协议的一个重要基础。</p><p><b>4.问：审计工作底稿在跨境审计监管合作中的作用是什么？</b></p><p>答：对会计师事务所开展监管，必然涉及到审计工作底稿。以日常检查为例，监管机构除检查会计师事务所内部控制体系外，还需要抽查部分上市公司的审计工作底稿，以检验事务所的工作质量。审计工作底稿是事务所开展审计过程中，对其制定的审计计划、实施的审计程序、获取的相关审计证据，以及得出的审计结论等所作的「工作记录」。审计工作底稿的主要功能是记载审计师是否依照审计准则尽职尽责地验证企业收入支出等财务信息准确性，因此一般并不包括国家秘密、个人隐私或企业底层数据等敏感信息。</p><p>需要说明的是，审计监管的直接对象是会计师事务所，而非其审计的上市公司。从跨境审计监管合作的国际实践看，上市地监管机构一般每年抽选部分会计师事务所进行检查，并在受检事务所审计的上市公司中抽查有代表性或有潜在审计质量风险的审计项目加以验证，以评估事务所的审计工作质量。对于中美审计监管合作而言，也是如此，无须每年检查全部在美上市公司审计项目。</p><p><b>5.问：在合作协议框架下，审计工作底稿如含有一些敏感信息，能否得到必要的保护？</b></p><p>答：近年来，我国数据安全法、个人信息保护法等信息安全相关法律法规陆续施行，相关市场主体的信息安全责任更加明确，操作上更加有章可循。企业无论上市与否，都有义务严格遵守本国法律法规。</p><p>近期中国证监会等部门完善了境外上市相关保密和档案管理规定，对规范审计工作底稿信息安全管理提出明确要求，进一步落实了上市公司信息安全的主体责任，同时为上市企业和会计师事务所依法依规保管和处理涉密敏感信息提供了更加细化和可执行的指引，有助于在满足会计审计要求的前提下做好底稿编制工作，并依法保护相关信息安全。</p><p>中美审计监管合作协议将双方对相关会计师事务所的检查和调查活动纳入合作框架下开展，双方将充分做好事前沟通协调，美方须查看的审计工作底稿等文件通过中方监管机构协助调取并提供。同时，合作协议对于审计监管合作中可能涉及敏感信息的处理和使用作出了明确约定，针对个人信息等特定数据设置了专门的处理程序，为双方履行法定监管职责的同时保护相关信息安全提供了可行路径。</p><p><b>6.问：中美审计监管合作协议的达成是否意味着中概股自美退市的风险已经解除？</b></p><p>答：中美审计监管合作协议的签署标志着双方通过加强合作解决中概股审计监管问题迈出了关键一步，符合市场的期盼和预期。下一步双方将根据合作协议对相关会计师事务所合作开展日常检查与调查活动，并对合作效果作出客观评估。如果后续合作可以满足各自监管需求，则有望解决中概股审计监管问题，从而避免自美被动退市。我们期待与美方监管部门以专业务实的态度积极推进合作，共同努力实现积极的成果。</p><p>受此消息影响，中概股盘前拉升，满帮涨超7%，拼多多涨近7%，蔚来涨约4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>涨超3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>涨超3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>涨近3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">贝壳</a>涨近2%。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1573813229493","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>中国证监会、财政部与美国监管机构签署审计监管合作协议</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n中国证监会、财政部与美国监管机构签署审计监管合作协议\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-26 20:01 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.csrc.gov.cn/csrc/c100028/c5572328/content.shtml><strong>证监会</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>8月26日，中国证券监督管理委员会、中华人民共和国财政部于2022年8月26日与美国公众公司会计监督委员会（PCAOB）签署审计监管合作协议，将于近期启动相关合作。合作协议依据两国法律法规，尊重国际通行做法，按照对等互利原则，就双方对相关会计师事务所合作开展监管检查和调查活动作出了明确约定，形成了符合双方法规和监管要求的合作框架。合作协议的签署，是中美双方监管机构在解决审计监管合作这一共同关切问题...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.csrc.gov.cn/csrc/c100028/c5572328/content.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae6b3ec4ed112f437b0da43e3b4c0339","relate_stocks":{"QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","TIGR":"老虎证券","BK4531":"中概回港概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4558":"双十一","BEKE":"贝壳","JD":"京东","09988":"阿里巴巴-SW","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4502":"阿里概念","BK4079":"房地产服务","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","PDD":"拼多多","BIDU":"百度","000001.SH":"上证指数","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"http://www.csrc.gov.cn/csrc/c100028/c5572328/content.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1164160353","content_text":"8月26日，中国证券监督管理委员会、中华人民共和国财政部于2022年8月26日与美国公众公司会计监督委员会（PCAOB）签署审计监管合作协议，将于近期启动相关合作。合作协议依据两国法律法规，尊重国际通行做法，按照对等互利原则，就双方对相关会计师事务所合作开展监管检查和调查活动作出了明确约定，形成了符合双方法规和监管要求的合作框架。合作协议的签署，是中美双方监管机构在解决审计监管合作这一共同关切问题上迈出的重要一步，为下一阶段双方积极、专业、务实推进合作奠定了基础。依法推进跨境审计监管合作，将有利于进一步提高会计师事务所执业质量，保护投资者合法权益，也有利于为企业依法合规开展跨境上市活动营造良好的国际监管环境。中国证监会有关负责人就签署中美审计监管合作协议答记者问1.问：签署中美审计监管合作协议的意义是什么？答：签署中美审计监管合作协议，是双方在解决中美审计监管合作问题上迈出的重要一步，为双方依法对共同监管范围内的会计师事务所开展日常检查和执法合作建立了监管合作机制，为下一步双方在符合各自法律规定和监管要求的前提下对等、高效开展合作奠定了基础，符合资本市场监管合作的国际通行做法。中美双方开展审计监管合作，对于提高会计师事务所执业质量、保护投资者合法权益具有积极意义，也有助于为企业依法依规开展跨境上市活动营造良好的监管环境。2.问：中美审计监管合作协议的主要内容是什么？答：此次签署的中美审计监管合作协议，是在双方2013年执法合作谅解备忘录及2016年试点检查合作备忘录的基础上，根据双方国内法律法规和监管要求，参照相关国际通行做法，总结以往双方合作经验，经过反复磋商达成的。合作协议主要就双方对相关会计师事务所合作开展日常检查与执法调查作出了具体安排，约定了合作目的、合作范围、合作形式、信息使用、特定数据保护等重要事项。合作协议包括以下重点内容：一是确立对等原则。协议条款对双方具有同等约束力。中美双方均可依据法定职责，对另一方辖区内相关事务所开展检查和调查，被请求方应在法律允许范围内尽力提供充分协助。二是明确合作范围。合作协议范围包括协助对方开展对相关事务所的检查和调查。其中，中方提供协助的范围也涉及部分为中概股提供审计服务、且审计底稿存放在内地的香港事务所。三是明确协作方式。双方将提前就检查和调查活动计划进行沟通协调，美方须通过中方监管部门获取审计底稿等文件，在中方参与和协助下对会计师事务所相关人员开展访谈和问询。3.问：开展跨境审计监管合作的目的是什么？答：企业在资本市场发行证券和上市，应定期公开发布财务报告，为投资者知情决策提供信息。各国法律法规均要求会计师事务所对相关财务报告进行审计，并要求监管机构对相关会计师事务所进行监管，以确保其依法依规履行好「守门人」职责，提高资本市场信息披露质量，维护投资者合法权益。在企业跨境上市的情形下，为这些企业提供审计服务的本地会计师事务所一般需要在上市地注册，并接受上市地监管部门的监管。由于这些事务所可能遍布全球各地，上市地监管部门为对它们实施监管，必须通过与相关事务所本地的监管机构建立合作机制，开展跨境监管合作，这是全球资本市场的通行做法。如不能有效开展跨境审计监管合作，就难以确信相关事务所审计工作是否符合监管要求，相关上市公司财报质量就缺少一层保障，会引发投资者质疑，甚至根据上市地法律法规，相关公司证券无法继续在该地上市交易。随着中国资本市场双向开放逐步深化，企业跨境上市和会计师事务所跨境展业日益频繁，目前，有超过200家中国公司在美国资本市场上市，有30余家中国境内会计师事务所在PCAOB注册，能够为在美上市的中国公司提供审计服务。PCAOB为履行对上述事务所的审计监管职责，需要与中国监管部门建立合作关系，实施跨境监管合作。同样，中国监管机构有需要对自身监管范围内的美国会计师事务所实施审计监管的，也要通过监管合作机制进行。这是国际惯例，双方都需要这个机制。保留中概股在美上市，对投资者有利，对上市公司有利，对中美双方都有利，是一种多赢的制度安排。这是双方能够坐下来谈判并达成协议的一个重要基础。4.问：审计工作底稿在跨境审计监管合作中的作用是什么？答：对会计师事务所开展监管，必然涉及到审计工作底稿。以日常检查为例，监管机构除检查会计师事务所内部控制体系外，还需要抽查部分上市公司的审计工作底稿，以检验事务所的工作质量。审计工作底稿是事务所开展审计过程中，对其制定的审计计划、实施的审计程序、获取的相关审计证据，以及得出的审计结论等所作的「工作记录」。审计工作底稿的主要功能是记载审计师是否依照审计准则尽职尽责地验证企业收入支出等财务信息准确性，因此一般并不包括国家秘密、个人隐私或企业底层数据等敏感信息。需要说明的是，审计监管的直接对象是会计师事务所，而非其审计的上市公司。从跨境审计监管合作的国际实践看，上市地监管机构一般每年抽选部分会计师事务所进行检查，并在受检事务所审计的上市公司中抽查有代表性或有潜在审计质量风险的审计项目加以验证，以评估事务所的审计工作质量。对于中美审计监管合作而言，也是如此，无须每年检查全部在美上市公司审计项目。5.问：在合作协议框架下，审计工作底稿如含有一些敏感信息，能否得到必要的保护？答：近年来，我国数据安全法、个人信息保护法等信息安全相关法律法规陆续施行，相关市场主体的信息安全责任更加明确，操作上更加有章可循。企业无论上市与否，都有义务严格遵守本国法律法规。近期中国证监会等部门完善了境外上市相关保密和档案管理规定，对规范审计工作底稿信息安全管理提出明确要求，进一步落实了上市公司信息安全的主体责任，同时为上市企业和会计师事务所依法依规保管和处理涉密敏感信息提供了更加细化和可执行的指引，有助于在满足会计审计要求的前提下做好底稿编制工作，并依法保护相关信息安全。中美审计监管合作协议将双方对相关会计师事务所的检查和调查活动纳入合作框架下开展，双方将充分做好事前沟通协调，美方须查看的审计工作底稿等文件通过中方监管机构协助调取并提供。同时，合作协议对于审计监管合作中可能涉及敏感信息的处理和使用作出了明确约定，针对个人信息等特定数据设置了专门的处理程序，为双方履行法定监管职责的同时保护相关信息安全提供了可行路径。6.问：中美审计监管合作协议的达成是否意味着中概股自美退市的风险已经解除？答：中美审计监管合作协议的签署标志着双方通过加强合作解决中概股审计监管问题迈出了关键一步，符合市场的期盼和预期。下一步双方将根据合作协议对相关会计师事务所合作开展日常检查与调查活动，并对合作效果作出客观评估。如果后续合作可以满足各自监管需求，则有望解决中概股审计监管问题，从而避免自美被动退市。我们期待与美方监管部门以专业务实的态度积极推进合作，共同努力实现积极的成果。受此消息影响，中概股盘前拉升，满帮涨超7%，拼多多涨近7%，蔚来涨约4%，阿里巴巴涨超3%，拼多多涨超3%，百度涨近3%，贝壳涨近2%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":941,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":660398060,"gmtCreate":1661413363651,"gmtModify":1661413363651,"author":{"id":"3579228928115385","authorId":"3579228928115385","name":"T0000024574","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a194ceed49c6a5c399d3e4f33fd1cf7f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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[得意]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/372fe98334561951afac8e592fcc23ff","width":"720","height":"1135"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/685575757","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":760,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":686852837,"gmtCreate":1658249607033,"gmtModify":1704869394773,"author":{"id":"3579228928115385","authorId":"3579228928115385","name":"T0000024574","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a194ceed49c6a5c399d3e4f33fd1cf7f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/686852837","repostId":"1149496724","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":694,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":686852153,"gmtCreate":1658249587873,"gmtModify":1704869394598,"author":{"id":"3579228928115385","authorId":"3579228928115385","name":"T0000024574","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a194ceed49c6a5c399d3e4f33fd1cf7f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/686852153","repostId":"1149496724","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149496724","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1658223309,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1149496724?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-07-19 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n俄罗斯联邦反垄断局裁定苹果公司违反了反垄断法\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-07-19 17:35</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>声明显示，俄罗斯联邦反垄断局（fas）裁定苹果公司违反了反垄断法。</p><p>俄罗斯联邦反垄断局将在调查过程中决定对美国科技巨头苹果公司处以基于营业额的罚款数额。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/052d0d3a6389985cf72883e9c3047ae4","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果","FNGU":"MicroSectors FANG+ 指数每日三倍做多 ETN"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149496724","content_text":"声明显示，俄罗斯联邦反垄断局（fas）裁定苹果公司违反了反垄断法。俄罗斯联邦反垄断局将在调查过程中决定对美国科技巨头苹果公司处以基于营业额的罚款数额。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":819,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":683548298,"gmtCreate":1656427950818,"gmtModify":1704864779739,"author":{"id":"3579228928115385","authorId":"3579228928115385","name":"T0000024574","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a194ceed49c6a5c399d3e4f33fd1cf7f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDH\">$水滴(WDH)$</a>不省心的水滴，到底哪里出错了半死不活的[流泪]&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDH\">$水滴(WDH)$</a>不省心的水滴，到底哪里出错了半死不活的[流泪]&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;","text":"$水滴(WDH)$不省心的水滴，到底哪里出错了半死不活的[流泪] [流泪] [流泪]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/683548298","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":705,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":683807081,"gmtCreate":1656114427245,"gmtModify":1704864132927,"author":{"id":"3579228928115385","authorId":"3579228928115385","name":"T0000024574","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a194ceed49c6a5c399d3e4f33fd1cf7f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"最近市场慢慢回暖中，但㚈部因素不能忽略，相信中国的股巿会勇往直前","listText":"最近市场慢慢回暖中，但㚈部因素不能忽略，相信中国的股巿会勇往直前","text":"最近市场慢慢回暖中，但㚈部因素不能忽略，相信中国的股巿会勇往直前","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/683807081","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":621,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":683118762,"gmtCreate":1656057240959,"gmtModify":1704864005006,"author":{"id":"3579228928115385","authorId":"3579228928115385","name":"T0000024574","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a194ceed49c6a5c399d3e4f33fd1cf7f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/683118762","repostId":"1179548878","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1179548878","pubTimestamp":1656029867,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1179548878?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-06-24 08:17","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"观点 | 新能源车还有多少上涨空间？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179548878","media":"格隆汇","summary":"行情未来究竟会朝着什么方向演绎？","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>最近的新能源汽车，可谓好事连连。</p><p>昨天的国常会，又一次释放支持新能源汽车消费的政策利好。从5月份开始的汽车产业链复苏，到后来的新能源汽车购置补贴延续、新能源汽车下乡，再到昨天的政策支持，新能源汽车俨然成了最大的政策“收割者”。</p><p>有政策扶持，股价就有了底气。CS新能源车指数已经反弹得非常大，走出一波深V形态。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a158fc59abdf6c7ce4eba172cfe4b196\" tg-width=\"780\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>个股更是迎来狂欢，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">比亚迪</a>、造车新势力，还有一些传统车企，整条新能源汽车产业链都在轮番上演暴涨行情。</p><p>然而，上涨太快，回调的风险也在积聚，尤其是在外围情况较为恶劣的情况下，不少声音都在质疑股市后颈不足。其实，从行情走势上看，不但新能源车，港A整个成长板块似乎都缺乏继续上攻的动力，股价也高位磨了一段时间，久攻不下，常常就会掉头向下，但往往是大家都认为会回调的时候，行情又常常反其道而行，似乎在用实际行动去打脸那些看空者。</p><p>现在确实很难有一致看法，回调和继续上攻的概率，似乎都是五五开，你很难预测明天会发生什么，这个时候往往也是大家很犯难的时候，进不是，走也不是。</p><p>那么，行情未来究竟会朝着什么方向演绎？</p><p>01上涨最强逻辑：政策</p><p>我们不妨再简单回顾一下近期独立的港A行情。</p><p><b>其实，原因只有两个，第一是疫情解封，第二则是政策，后者对股市上升的助推力还要更强一些，最明显的就是汽车股。</b></p><p>实际上，如果没有政策支持，汽车销售下滑速度会很快，数据也会惨不忍睹，这在4月份的时候已经领教过。当时，很多人将其解读为疫情导致的供应链中断，但我更倾向于整体消费力的下滑，因为疫情最终一定会解封，供应链恢复是迟早的事，而消费力下滑，可不是一时半会能恢复的。</p><p>正当市场仍在犹豫的时候，政策的支持改变了一切，因为是直接支持汽车终端消费，车厂销量有着落，业绩就有着落，股价也跟着有着落。复盘过去一个月新能源汽车的上涨，基本都是跟着政策走，每出一个政策利好，涨一大波。</p><p>如果仍然聚焦于这个上涨逻辑，后面还能不能涨的问题，就变成利好政策能不能延续的问题。</p><p>我们一直强调，今年最大的经济任务就是稳增长，5.5%的GDP增速是死任务。从GDP的构成来看，出口基本不能指望太多，因为疫情带来的红利已经消退，当然最近传出拜登考虑取消部分对华商品关税问题，如果真的能够成事，那出口就能够“喝上一壶”，但这个事现在还存在很多不确定性，所以投资和消费才是真正自己能够掌控的，也是最值得发力的地方。</p><p>从最近的一系列稳经济政策来看，有两条主线，<b>一个是新能源基础设施，</b>光伏、风电等基建投资是重头戏，<b>第二个就是新能源汽车消费，</b>即上文所提及的那些。</p><p>在这一轮的新能源政策刺激过程中，电池板块或将成为受益最大的一环：首先是因为动力电池在新能源车中成本占比最高，整车销量的增加必然带来电池装机容量的增长；其次，锂电池还广泛应用于储能领域，用于保证供电的稳定与可靠；还有，我国的新能源电池龙头企业在全球具有比较优势，占据50%以上的市场份额。</p><p>而今天<b>电池ETF(159755)大涨接近4%</b>，也证明了“买新能源车不如买电池”的逻辑。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49af3f3623911d28c0a82f3d144789fe\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>后面如果继续出政策，大概率还是会沿着这两条主线走，而如果继续有政策利好，那这两条线所涉及的产业链个股、还有相关ETF的上涨趋势，就会继续。</p><p>至于究竟会不会出，那就要看看Q2的经济数据了，上头5月份下过死命令，Q2的经济一定要有增长，就业也一定要完成既定任务，所以6月份的经济数据就异常重要。现在6月还没有结束，结果究竟如何要等相关部门公布后才见分晓。</p><p>但这不妨碍我们从5月份的数据去做一个参照，5月份不少核心经济指标都较4月份有反弹，加上6月份至今的复苏形势不错，预计6月份的经济数据，继续向好的概率要更大一些。</p><p>当然，这个也是市场观点出现分化的原因，如果经济向好符合政策预期，那政策的刺激很可能转弱，没有了政策利好的刺激，炒作的逻辑就会改变。</p><p>即使后面还会有政策利好，但前面已经出了这么多，空间肯定也会变小，所以从中长线上看，新能源汽车的炒作逻辑，最终还是要回归到公司的基本面，回归到业绩上。</p><p>02后续炒作逻辑：基本面、业绩</p><p>从行业基本面上看，新能源汽车底气还是非常充足的。</p><p>中国是销售渗透率比较高的国家，也未足30%，换言之，渗透率再翻一倍，都仍然有上涨空间。同时，全球范围上看，碳中和是大势所趋，不少西方发达国家也有明确的燃油车禁售时间表，至少在增长空间上，不用担心。虽然现在已经被炒得很火热，但是从行业的发展阶段上看，电动车仍处于早期，远未说得上成熟。</p><p>不过，行业好，不代表所有公司都能收获同样的涨幅，到现在这个时间点，分化已经在所难免。</p><p>除了政策直接支持汽车终端消费外，业绩的预期也是很大的因素。不管现在新能源车企是赚钱还是亏损，在未来相当长的时间，整车销售都是单边的上涨态势，价格上则相对稳定，换言之，营收是不断上升的，加上上游价格高位回落、自身产能的扩大，成本端缓解也是迟早的事，所以利润持续向好是确定的。</p><p>有的产业链环节在过去一年价格上涨太高，目前基本处于峰值水平，未来向下的概率远高于向上，所以资金不太愿意去追高，反弹过后就一直在多空拉锯。</p><p>而且，用长线视角去看，整车是最接近消费者的，议价能力相对要强。去年，整车厂深受上游产业链的制约，但这也是特殊时期造成的特殊现象，零配件环节是无法长期制约整车厂的，而且零配件的供应也不可能长期短缺，一旦产能上来，供应释放，价格回落就是自然的事。</p><p><b>现在，整条产业链正逐步恢复正常。</b></p><p>汽车产业本身是一个头部聚拢型的行业，也就是说，不管此前多少公司逐鹿中原，最后能够成功杀出重围的，必定是少数。实际上，这种趋势已经相当明显，头部的企业雏形也已经清晰可见。</p><p>比如全球范围内，最炙手可热的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>，中国区的比亚迪、蔚小理，传统汽车的长城、吉利，还有国企中的广汽，等等。排名越靠后，跑出来的概率就会越低，这一幕从汽车业过往的历史就有过验证，也是行业内的共识。</p><p>所以，若不想太麻烦做研究，基本面优质的头部企业仍然是最值得布局的标的。</p><p>03新能源汽车还能炒多久？</p><p>回到开篇的问题，新能源汽车股还有多少上涨空间？</p><p>这里要分两分方面看，如果是看销量、业绩增长，那毫无疑问是有很大的上升空间，即使是头号的特斯拉，去年的销量也就93万辆，它自己设定的2030年过千万的销量，增长空间不言而喻。</p><p>但如果具体到股价的上涨空间，近期确实有点过热了，套用我们自己的投资模型去计算，现在新能源汽车的估值上，基本反映了政策利好以及中期业绩，甚至全年业绩都已经透支。另外，外围的风险也不得不防，现在市场上有一派观点为很多人所接受，那就是外围的经济，特别是西方国家的经济风险非常高，高通胀需要强力加息去缓解，而俄乌战争导致的能源价格、粮食价格上升，很难在短期内扭转，最终的结果很可能是经济硬着陆。硬着陆在某程度上，是可以和经济危机挂上等号的，作为已经融入全球经济的中国，也很难不被波及。作为高估值板块，新能源汽车受冲击的可能性较高。</p><p><b>所以，保守起见，如果接下来的中报，以及下半年的销量没有惊喜，这个位置基本可以落袋为安了。</b></p><p>不过，从另外一个角度--<b>资金面</b>，倒可以继续进取一点。现在资金基本都是一头扎进新能源板块，即使估值过高，仍然前赴后继，主要原因在于其他板块着实没有太多吸引力，就连我们一直给予厚望的消费板块，走势也未及预期，和新能源相比，这些传统的消费板块缺乏实际的政策刺激，加之宏观经济仍然受压，虽然疫情解封，但要恢复起来，估计还得耗上相当长的一段时间。</p><p><b>所以，对于是否炒作新能源板块，主要还是取决于你的炒作成本和风险承受能力。</b></p><p>对于低位布局，而且风险承担能力强的投资者，现在是享受泡沫的好时光；而另外一些人，则未必是好时机。</p></body></html>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>观点 | 新能源车还有多少上涨空间？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n观点 | 新能源车还有多少上涨空间？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-24 08:17 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/534964><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>最近的新能源汽车，可谓好事连连。昨天的国常会，又一次释放支持新能源汽车消费的政策利好。从5月份开始的汽车产业链复苏，到后来的新能源汽车购置补贴延续、新能源汽车下乡，再到昨天的政策支持，新能源汽车俨然成了最大的政策“收割者”。有政策扶持，股价就有了底气。CS新能源车指数已经反弹得非常大，走出一波深V形态。个股更是迎来狂欢，比亚迪、造车新势力，还有一些传统车企，整条新能源汽车产业链都在轮番上演暴涨行情...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/534964\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edb5904d62b10798f760277be625646d","relate_stocks":{"161028":"新能源车","399417":"新能源车"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/534964","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"1179548878","content_text":"最近的新能源汽车，可谓好事连连。昨天的国常会，又一次释放支持新能源汽车消费的政策利好。从5月份开始的汽车产业链复苏，到后来的新能源汽车购置补贴延续、新能源汽车下乡，再到昨天的政策支持，新能源汽车俨然成了最大的政策“收割者”。有政策扶持，股价就有了底气。CS新能源车指数已经反弹得非常大，走出一波深V形态。个股更是迎来狂欢，比亚迪、造车新势力，还有一些传统车企，整条新能源汽车产业链都在轮番上演暴涨行情。然而，上涨太快，回调的风险也在积聚，尤其是在外围情况较为恶劣的情况下，不少声音都在质疑股市后颈不足。其实，从行情走势上看，不但新能源车，港A整个成长板块似乎都缺乏继续上攻的动力，股价也高位磨了一段时间，久攻不下，常常就会掉头向下，但往往是大家都认为会回调的时候，行情又常常反其道而行，似乎在用实际行动去打脸那些看空者。现在确实很难有一致看法，回调和继续上攻的概率，似乎都是五五开，你很难预测明天会发生什么，这个时候往往也是大家很犯难的时候，进不是，走也不是。那么，行情未来究竟会朝着什么方向演绎？01上涨最强逻辑：政策我们不妨再简单回顾一下近期独立的港A行情。其实，原因只有两个，第一是疫情解封，第二则是政策，后者对股市上升的助推力还要更强一些，最明显的就是汽车股。实际上，如果没有政策支持，汽车销售下滑速度会很快，数据也会惨不忍睹，这在4月份的时候已经领教过。当时，很多人将其解读为疫情导致的供应链中断，但我更倾向于整体消费力的下滑，因为疫情最终一定会解封，供应链恢复是迟早的事，而消费力下滑，可不是一时半会能恢复的。正当市场仍在犹豫的时候，政策的支持改变了一切，因为是直接支持汽车终端消费，车厂销量有着落，业绩就有着落，股价也跟着有着落。复盘过去一个月新能源汽车的上涨，基本都是跟着政策走，每出一个政策利好，涨一大波。如果仍然聚焦于这个上涨逻辑，后面还能不能涨的问题，就变成利好政策能不能延续的问题。我们一直强调，今年最大的经济任务就是稳增长，5.5%的GDP增速是死任务。从GDP的构成来看，出口基本不能指望太多，因为疫情带来的红利已经消退，当然最近传出拜登考虑取消部分对华商品关税问题，如果真的能够成事，那出口就能够“喝上一壶”，但这个事现在还存在很多不确定性，所以投资和消费才是真正自己能够掌控的，也是最值得发力的地方。从最近的一系列稳经济政策来看，有两条主线，一个是新能源基础设施，光伏、风电等基建投资是重头戏，第二个就是新能源汽车消费，即上文所提及的那些。在这一轮的新能源政策刺激过程中，电池板块或将成为受益最大的一环：首先是因为动力电池在新能源车中成本占比最高，整车销量的增加必然带来电池装机容量的增长；其次，锂电池还广泛应用于储能领域，用于保证供电的稳定与可靠；还有，我国的新能源电池龙头企业在全球具有比较优势，占据50%以上的市场份额。而今天电池ETF(159755)大涨接近4%，也证明了“买新能源车不如买电池”的逻辑。后面如果继续出政策，大概率还是会沿着这两条主线走，而如果继续有政策利好，那这两条线所涉及的产业链个股、还有相关ETF的上涨趋势，就会继续。至于究竟会不会出，那就要看看Q2的经济数据了，上头5月份下过死命令，Q2的经济一定要有增长，就业也一定要完成既定任务，所以6月份的经济数据就异常重要。现在6月还没有结束，结果究竟如何要等相关部门公布后才见分晓。但这不妨碍我们从5月份的数据去做一个参照，5月份不少核心经济指标都较4月份有反弹，加上6月份至今的复苏形势不错，预计6月份的经济数据，继续向好的概率要更大一些。当然，这个也是市场观点出现分化的原因，如果经济向好符合政策预期，那政策的刺激很可能转弱，没有了政策利好的刺激，炒作的逻辑就会改变。即使后面还会有政策利好，但前面已经出了这么多，空间肯定也会变小，所以从中长线上看，新能源汽车的炒作逻辑，最终还是要回归到公司的基本面，回归到业绩上。02后续炒作逻辑：基本面、业绩从行业基本面上看，新能源汽车底气还是非常充足的。中国是销售渗透率比较高的国家，也未足30%，换言之，渗透率再翻一倍，都仍然有上涨空间。同时，全球范围上看，碳中和是大势所趋，不少西方发达国家也有明确的燃油车禁售时间表，至少在增长空间上，不用担心。虽然现在已经被炒得很火热，但是从行业的发展阶段上看，电动车仍处于早期，远未说得上成熟。不过，行业好，不代表所有公司都能收获同样的涨幅，到现在这个时间点，分化已经在所难免。除了政策直接支持汽车终端消费外，业绩的预期也是很大的因素。不管现在新能源车企是赚钱还是亏损，在未来相当长的时间，整车销售都是单边的上涨态势，价格上则相对稳定，换言之，营收是不断上升的，加上上游价格高位回落、自身产能的扩大，成本端缓解也是迟早的事，所以利润持续向好是确定的。有的产业链环节在过去一年价格上涨太高，目前基本处于峰值水平，未来向下的概率远高于向上，所以资金不太愿意去追高，反弹过后就一直在多空拉锯。而且，用长线视角去看，整车是最接近消费者的，议价能力相对要强。去年，整车厂深受上游产业链的制约，但这也是特殊时期造成的特殊现象，零配件环节是无法长期制约整车厂的，而且零配件的供应也不可能长期短缺，一旦产能上来，供应释放，价格回落就是自然的事。现在，整条产业链正逐步恢复正常。汽车产业本身是一个头部聚拢型的行业，也就是说，不管此前多少公司逐鹿中原，最后能够成功杀出重围的，必定是少数。实际上，这种趋势已经相当明显，头部的企业雏形也已经清晰可见。比如全球范围内，最炙手可热的特斯拉，中国区的比亚迪、蔚小理，传统汽车的长城、吉利，还有国企中的广汽，等等。排名越靠后，跑出来的概率就会越低，这一幕从汽车业过往的历史就有过验证，也是行业内的共识。所以，若不想太麻烦做研究，基本面优质的头部企业仍然是最值得布局的标的。03新能源汽车还能炒多久？回到开篇的问题，新能源汽车股还有多少上涨空间？这里要分两分方面看，如果是看销量、业绩增长，那毫无疑问是有很大的上升空间，即使是头号的特斯拉，去年的销量也就93万辆，它自己设定的2030年过千万的销量，增长空间不言而喻。但如果具体到股价的上涨空间，近期确实有点过热了，套用我们自己的投资模型去计算，现在新能源汽车的估值上，基本反映了政策利好以及中期业绩，甚至全年业绩都已经透支。另外，外围的风险也不得不防，现在市场上有一派观点为很多人所接受，那就是外围的经济，特别是西方国家的经济风险非常高，高通胀需要强力加息去缓解，而俄乌战争导致的能源价格、粮食价格上升，很难在短期内扭转，最终的结果很可能是经济硬着陆。硬着陆在某程度上，是可以和经济危机挂上等号的，作为已经融入全球经济的中国，也很难不被波及。作为高估值板块，新能源汽车受冲击的可能性较高。所以，保守起见，如果接下来的中报，以及下半年的销量没有惊喜，这个位置基本可以落袋为安了。不过，从另外一个角度--资金面，倒可以继续进取一点。现在资金基本都是一头扎进新能源板块，即使估值过高，仍然前赴后继，主要原因在于其他板块着实没有太多吸引力，就连我们一直给予厚望的消费板块，走势也未及预期，和新能源相比，这些传统的消费板块缺乏实际的政策刺激，加之宏观经济仍然受压，虽然疫情解封，但要恢复起来，估计还得耗上相当长的一段时间。所以，对于是否炒作新能源板块，主要还是取决于你的炒作成本和风险承受能力。对于低位布局，而且风险承担能力强的投资者，现在是享受泡沫的好时光；而另外一些人，则未必是好时机。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":941,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":683315108,"gmtCreate":1655996585606,"gmtModify":1704863839261,"author":{"id":"3579228928115385","authorId":"3579228928115385","name":"T0000024574","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a194ceed49c6a5c399d3e4f33fd1cf7f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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