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aaaloljkjoke
2021-11-15
Let's goo
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aaaloljkjoke
2021-11-11
Dam the 11.11 sale over liao.
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aaaloljkjoke
2021-11-08
Time to buy discounted Tesla stocks
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","listText":"Dam the 11.11 sale over liao. ","text":"Dam the 11.11 sale over liao.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/870228004","repostId":"1107880037","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":819,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":873285639,"gmtCreate":1636948103233,"gmtModify":1636948103233,"author":{"id":"3579172936162235","authorId":"3579172936162235","name":"aaaloljkjoke","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a784e71727d270513ebe98fddf9adbf5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579172936162235","idStr":"3579172936162235"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Let's goo","listText":"Let's goo","text":"Let's goo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873285639","repostId":"1164000315","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1164000315","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1636947346,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1164000315?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-15 11:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stocks Hover Near Their Highs. Main Street Doesn’t Care.<blockquote>股票徘徊在高点附近。大街不在乎。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1164000315","media":"Barrons","summary":"So this is what happens when you turn it up to 11. Even those who aren’t fans of the classic rock mo","content":"<p>So this is what happens when you turn it up to 11. Even those who aren’t fans of the classic rock mockumentary This Is Spinal Tap are familiar with the insistence of the dimwitted guitar player that his amplifier played louder than others because the volume control number went to 11, rather than the usual 10. That, of course, didn’t produce more decibels, especially since he scrawled the numeral on the amp.</p><p><blockquote>这就是当你把它调到11时会发生的情况。即使那些不是经典摇滚纪录片《这是脊椎敲击》粉丝的人也熟悉这位愚蠢的吉他手坚持认为他的放大器比其他人播放得更响，因为音量控制数字变成了11，而不是通常的10。当然，这并没有产生更多的分贝，尤其是因为他在放大器上潦草地写下了数字。</blockquote></p><p> Similarly, based on the numbers, all Americans never had it so good. And especially in the stock market, where investors’ wealth increased by $9.7 trillion—some 23.5%—in the year through Friday, according to the FT Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index. Yet that hasn’t trickled down to average folks, who tell the University of Michigan that their confidence in the economic outlook is the lowest in a decade.</p><p><blockquote>同样，根据这些数字，所有美国人都没有过得这么好。尤其是在股票市场，根据FT Wilshire 5000总市场指数，截至周五的一年中，投资者的财富增加了9.7万亿美元，约23.5%。然而，这并没有影响到普通人，他们告诉密歇根大学，他们对经济前景的信心是十年来最低的。</blockquote></p><p> That’s because they know, regardless of what the numbers say, that their incomes are declining in real terms. Employment is up, wages are up, but not as much as prices. That was driven home this past week with news that the consumer price index had jumped 0.9% in October, bringing the year-over-year increase to 6.2%, the most in more than three decades.</p><p><blockquote>这是因为他们知道，不管数字如何，他们的实际收入正在下降。就业在上升，工资在上升，但没有物价那么高。上周有消息称，10月份消费者价格指数上涨0.9%，同比涨幅达到6.2%，为三十多年来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> Policy makers continue to put a brave face on inflation. Conceding that inflation is painful, President Joe Biden says his $1.85 trillion Build Back Better program, which is being held up in the Senate, and the $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill, which he plans to sign on Monday, will help ease price pressures. Similarly, Federal Reserve officials are sticking to their mantra that inflation is “transitory” and should ease once Covid-related supply-chain and other disruptions are worked out.</p><p><blockquote>政策制定者继续勇敢地面对通货膨胀。总统乔·拜登承认通货膨胀是痛苦的，他表示，他的1.85万亿美元重建更好计划（该计划在参议院被搁置）和他计划于周一签署的1.2万亿美元基础设施法案将有助于缓解价格压力。同样，美联储官员也坚持他们的口号，即通胀是“暂时的”，一旦与新冠病毒相关的供应链和其他中断得到解决，通胀就应该会缓解。</blockquote></p><p> To more disinterested observers, the policy makers are the source of the inflation problem, rather than the solution.</p><p><blockquote>对于更公正的观察者来说，政策制定者是通胀问题的根源，而不是解决方案。</blockquote></p><p> Julian Brigden, who heads Macro Intelligence 2 Partners, traces the inflation problem to the “utterly disproportionate” monetary and fiscal responses to the pandemic, especially given the fiscal stimulus that had been applied before the coronavirus hit in early 2020. As a result, the “output gap”—the difference between the U.S. economy’s potential and actual gross domestic product—has closed in short order. In contrast, he notes, the output gap was never closed in the decade-plus following the recession resulting from the 2008-09 financial crisis.</p><p><blockquote>Macro Intelligence 2 Partners负责人朱利安·布里格登(Julian Brigden)将通胀问题追溯到对疫情“完全不成比例”的货币和财政反应，特别是考虑到2020年初冠状病毒爆发之前实施的财政刺激措施。结果，“产出缺口”——美国经济潜在和实际国内生产总值之间的差异——在短时间内缩小了。他指出，相比之下，在2008-09年金融危机导致经济衰退后的十多年里，产出缺口从未缩小。</blockquote></p><p> This also means that the U.S. practically is at full employment, even though the official jobless rate is 4.6%. But some five million people have left the labor force since the pandemic started, with most of them over the age of 55, according to Goldman Sachs economists, resulting from early (1.5 million) or regular (one million) retirements.</p><p><blockquote>这也意味着美国实际上处于充分就业状态，尽管官方失业率为4.6%。但据高盛经济学家称，自疫情爆发以来，约有500万人离开了劳动力市场，其中大多数年龄超过55岁，这是由于提前（150万）或定期（100万）退休造成的。</blockquote></p><p> The economists think that most of the 1.7 million “prime age” labor-force dropouts are apt to return. Still, they contend that labor-force participation will remain below trend, which will result in the Fed adjusting its maximum employment goal accordingly.</p><p><blockquote>经济学家认为，170万“黄金年龄”的劳动力辍学者中的大多数很可能会返回。尽管如此，他们认为劳动力参与率仍将低于趋势水平，这将导致美联储相应调整其最大就业目标。</blockquote></p><p> The strength of the labor market can be seen in the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, which showed 10.44 million openings at the end of September and a record 3% quit rate.</p><p><blockquote>劳动力市场的强劲可以从最新的职位空缺和劳动力流动调查中看出，该调查显示9月底有1044万个职位空缺，辞职率达到创纪录的3%。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, the National Federation of Independent Business cited a lack of workers for unfilled positions, along with supply shortages, as the biggest problems in its October survey. This is forcing small businesses to boost compensation to the highest level since 1984.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，全国独立企业联合会在10月份的调查中指出，空缺职位缺乏工人以及供应短缺是最大的问题。这迫使小企业将薪酬提高到1984年以来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> Brigden reckons that the U.S. central bank will view a 3.8% jobless rate as full employment, even though that’s above the 3.5% trough reached in February 2020, before Covid hit. That level might not be far off, given the indicators. The bad news, he adds, is that the current supereasy financial conditions are “utterly inappropriate,” given surging inflation and a strong labor market. </p><p><blockquote>布里格登认为，美联储将把3.8%的失业率视为充分就业，尽管这高于2020年2月新冠疫情爆发前达到的3.5%的低谷。考虑到指标，这一水平可能不会太远。他补充说，坏消息是，鉴于通胀飙升和劳动力市场强劲，当前超宽松的金融状况“完全不合适”。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed is only about to start reducing its $120 billion in monthly securities purchases by just $15 billion a month; at that rate, it will add over $400 billion to its $8.5 trillion balance sheet, which has more than doubled since February 2020, before the pandemic. And the central bank’s federal-funds rate target remains at a rock-bottom 0% to 0.25%.</p><p><blockquote>美联储刚刚开始将每月1200亿美元的证券购买量减少150亿美元；按照这个速度，它将为其8.5万亿美元的资产负债表增加超过4000亿美元，自疫情爆发前的2020年2月以来增加了一倍多。央行的联邦基金利率目标仍维持在0%至0.25%的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p> So far, Brigden notes, financial conditions have tightened mainly at the short end of the Treasury market, where the two-year note’s yield has tripled since early August, to 0.52%, while the five-year yield in the “belly” of the curve has jumped to 1.23% from 0.65%, anticipating Fed rate hikes starting in mid-2022. But other measures, notably longer-term Treasury yields, credit spreads, and equity prices, remain supereasy.</p><p><blockquote>布里格登指出，到目前为止，金融状况主要在国债市场的空头端收紧，自8月初以来，两年期国债收益率已上涨两倍，至0.52%，而处于“腹部”的五年期国债收益率曲线已从0.65%跃升至1.23%，预计美联储将从2022年中期开始加息。但其他指标，特别是长期国债收益率、信用利差和股票价格，仍然非常容易。</blockquote></p><p> Containing surging inflation requires tighter financial conditions, Brigden concludes. That’s not priced into the markets, and definitely not into stock prices, with the major averages ending the week less than 1% from their respective records, with monetary and fiscal policies still set at 11.</p><p><blockquote>布里格登总结道，遏制通胀飙升需要收紧金融环境。这没有反映在市场中，当然也没有反映在股价中，主要平均指数本周结束时较各自的记录不到1%，货币和财政政策仍定为11。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks Hover Near Their Highs. Main Street Doesn’t Care.<blockquote>股票徘徊在高点附近。大街不在乎。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks Hover Near Their Highs. Main Street Doesn’t Care.<blockquote>股票徘徊在高点附近。大街不在乎。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-15 11:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>So this is what happens when you turn it up to 11. Even those who aren’t fans of the classic rock mockumentary This Is Spinal Tap are familiar with the insistence of the dimwitted guitar player that his amplifier played louder than others because the volume control number went to 11, rather than the usual 10. That, of course, didn’t produce more decibels, especially since he scrawled the numeral on the amp.</p><p><blockquote>这就是当你把它调到11时会发生的情况。即使那些不是经典摇滚纪录片《这是脊椎敲击》粉丝的人也熟悉这位愚蠢的吉他手坚持认为他的放大器比其他人播放得更响，因为音量控制数字变成了11，而不是通常的10。当然，这并没有产生更多的分贝，尤其是因为他在放大器上潦草地写下了数字。</blockquote></p><p> Similarly, based on the numbers, all Americans never had it so good. And especially in the stock market, where investors’ wealth increased by $9.7 trillion—some 23.5%—in the year through Friday, according to the FT Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index. Yet that hasn’t trickled down to average folks, who tell the University of Michigan that their confidence in the economic outlook is the lowest in a decade.</p><p><blockquote>同样，根据这些数字，所有美国人都没有过得这么好。尤其是在股票市场，根据FT Wilshire 5000总市场指数，截至周五的一年中，投资者的财富增加了9.7万亿美元，约23.5%。然而，这并没有影响到普通人，他们告诉密歇根大学，他们对经济前景的信心是十年来最低的。</blockquote></p><p> That’s because they know, regardless of what the numbers say, that their incomes are declining in real terms. Employment is up, wages are up, but not as much as prices. That was driven home this past week with news that the consumer price index had jumped 0.9% in October, bringing the year-over-year increase to 6.2%, the most in more than three decades.</p><p><blockquote>这是因为他们知道，不管数字如何，他们的实际收入正在下降。就业在上升，工资在上升，但没有物价那么高。上周有消息称，10月份消费者价格指数上涨0.9%，同比涨幅达到6.2%，为三十多年来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> Policy makers continue to put a brave face on inflation. Conceding that inflation is painful, President Joe Biden says his $1.85 trillion Build Back Better program, which is being held up in the Senate, and the $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill, which he plans to sign on Monday, will help ease price pressures. Similarly, Federal Reserve officials are sticking to their mantra that inflation is “transitory” and should ease once Covid-related supply-chain and other disruptions are worked out.</p><p><blockquote>政策制定者继续勇敢地面对通货膨胀。总统乔·拜登承认通货膨胀是痛苦的，他表示，他的1.85万亿美元重建更好计划（该计划在参议院被搁置）和他计划于周一签署的1.2万亿美元基础设施法案将有助于缓解价格压力。同样，美联储官员也坚持他们的口号，即通胀是“暂时的”，一旦与新冠病毒相关的供应链和其他中断得到解决，通胀就应该会缓解。</blockquote></p><p> To more disinterested observers, the policy makers are the source of the inflation problem, rather than the solution.</p><p><blockquote>对于更公正的观察者来说，政策制定者是通胀问题的根源，而不是解决方案。</blockquote></p><p> Julian Brigden, who heads Macro Intelligence 2 Partners, traces the inflation problem to the “utterly disproportionate” monetary and fiscal responses to the pandemic, especially given the fiscal stimulus that had been applied before the coronavirus hit in early 2020. As a result, the “output gap”—the difference between the U.S. economy’s potential and actual gross domestic product—has closed in short order. In contrast, he notes, the output gap was never closed in the decade-plus following the recession resulting from the 2008-09 financial crisis.</p><p><blockquote>Macro Intelligence 2 Partners负责人朱利安·布里格登(Julian Brigden)将通胀问题追溯到对疫情“完全不成比例”的货币和财政反应，特别是考虑到2020年初冠状病毒爆发之前实施的财政刺激措施。结果，“产出缺口”——美国经济潜在和实际国内生产总值之间的差异——在短时间内缩小了。他指出，相比之下，在2008-09年金融危机导致经济衰退后的十多年里，产出缺口从未缩小。</blockquote></p><p> This also means that the U.S. practically is at full employment, even though the official jobless rate is 4.6%. But some five million people have left the labor force since the pandemic started, with most of them over the age of 55, according to Goldman Sachs economists, resulting from early (1.5 million) or regular (one million) retirements.</p><p><blockquote>这也意味着美国实际上处于充分就业状态，尽管官方失业率为4.6%。但据高盛经济学家称，自疫情爆发以来，约有500万人离开了劳动力市场，其中大多数年龄超过55岁，这是由于提前（150万）或定期（100万）退休造成的。</blockquote></p><p> The economists think that most of the 1.7 million “prime age” labor-force dropouts are apt to return. Still, they contend that labor-force participation will remain below trend, which will result in the Fed adjusting its maximum employment goal accordingly.</p><p><blockquote>经济学家认为，170万“黄金年龄”的劳动力辍学者中的大多数很可能会返回。尽管如此，他们认为劳动力参与率仍将低于趋势水平，这将导致美联储相应调整其最大就业目标。</blockquote></p><p> The strength of the labor market can be seen in the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, which showed 10.44 million openings at the end of September and a record 3% quit rate.</p><p><blockquote>劳动力市场的强劲可以从最新的职位空缺和劳动力流动调查中看出，该调查显示9月底有1044万个职位空缺，辞职率达到创纪录的3%。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, the National Federation of Independent Business cited a lack of workers for unfilled positions, along with supply shortages, as the biggest problems in its October survey. This is forcing small businesses to boost compensation to the highest level since 1984.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，全国独立企业联合会在10月份的调查中指出，空缺职位缺乏工人以及供应短缺是最大的问题。这迫使小企业将薪酬提高到1984年以来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> Brigden reckons that the U.S. central bank will view a 3.8% jobless rate as full employment, even though that’s above the 3.5% trough reached in February 2020, before Covid hit. That level might not be far off, given the indicators. The bad news, he adds, is that the current supereasy financial conditions are “utterly inappropriate,” given surging inflation and a strong labor market. </p><p><blockquote>布里格登认为，美联储将把3.8%的失业率视为充分就业，尽管这高于2020年2月新冠疫情爆发前达到的3.5%的低谷。考虑到指标，这一水平可能不会太远。他补充说，坏消息是，鉴于通胀飙升和劳动力市场强劲，当前超宽松的金融状况“完全不合适”。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed is only about to start reducing its $120 billion in monthly securities purchases by just $15 billion a month; at that rate, it will add over $400 billion to its $8.5 trillion balance sheet, which has more than doubled since February 2020, before the pandemic. And the central bank’s federal-funds rate target remains at a rock-bottom 0% to 0.25%.</p><p><blockquote>美联储刚刚开始将每月1200亿美元的证券购买量减少150亿美元；按照这个速度，它将为其8.5万亿美元的资产负债表增加超过4000亿美元，自疫情爆发前的2020年2月以来增加了一倍多。央行的联邦基金利率目标仍维持在0%至0.25%的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p> So far, Brigden notes, financial conditions have tightened mainly at the short end of the Treasury market, where the two-year note’s yield has tripled since early August, to 0.52%, while the five-year yield in the “belly” of the curve has jumped to 1.23% from 0.65%, anticipating Fed rate hikes starting in mid-2022. But other measures, notably longer-term Treasury yields, credit spreads, and equity prices, remain supereasy.</p><p><blockquote>布里格登指出，到目前为止，金融状况主要在国债市场的空头端收紧，自8月初以来，两年期国债收益率已上涨两倍，至0.52%，而处于“腹部”的五年期国债收益率曲线已从0.65%跃升至1.23%，预计美联储将从2022年中期开始加息。但其他指标，特别是长期国债收益率、信用利差和股票价格，仍然非常容易。</blockquote></p><p> Containing surging inflation requires tighter financial conditions, Brigden concludes. That’s not priced into the markets, and definitely not into stock prices, with the major averages ending the week less than 1% from their respective records, with monetary and fiscal policies still set at 11.</p><p><blockquote>布里格登总结道，遏制通胀飙升需要收紧金融环境。这没有反映在市场中，当然也没有反映在股价中，主要平均指数本周结束时较各自的记录不到1%，货币和财政政策仍定为11。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/stock-market-economy-inflation-51636765999?mod=newsviewer_click\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/stock-market-economy-inflation-51636765999?mod=newsviewer_click","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1164000315","content_text":"So this is what happens when you turn it up to 11. Even those who aren’t fans of the classic rock mockumentary This Is Spinal Tap are familiar with the insistence of the dimwitted guitar player that his amplifier played louder than others because the volume control number went to 11, rather than the usual 10. That, of course, didn’t produce more decibels, especially since he scrawled the numeral on the amp.\nSimilarly, based on the numbers, all Americans never had it so good. And especially in the stock market, where investors’ wealth increased by $9.7 trillion—some 23.5%—in the year through Friday, according to the FT Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index. Yet that hasn’t trickled down to average folks, who tell the University of Michigan that their confidence in the economic outlook is the lowest in a decade.\nThat’s because they know, regardless of what the numbers say, that their incomes are declining in real terms. Employment is up, wages are up, but not as much as prices. That was driven home this past week with news that the consumer price index had jumped 0.9% in October, bringing the year-over-year increase to 6.2%, the most in more than three decades.\nPolicy makers continue to put a brave face on inflation. Conceding that inflation is painful, President Joe Biden says his $1.85 trillion Build Back Better program, which is being held up in the Senate, and the $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill, which he plans to sign on Monday, will help ease price pressures. Similarly, Federal Reserve officials are sticking to their mantra that inflation is “transitory” and should ease once Covid-related supply-chain and other disruptions are worked out.\nTo more disinterested observers, the policy makers are the source of the inflation problem, rather than the solution.\nJulian Brigden, who heads Macro Intelligence 2 Partners, traces the inflation problem to the “utterly disproportionate” monetary and fiscal responses to the pandemic, especially given the fiscal stimulus that had been applied before the coronavirus hit in early 2020. As a result, the “output gap”—the difference between the U.S. economy’s potential and actual gross domestic product—has closed in short order. In contrast, he notes, the output gap was never closed in the decade-plus following the recession resulting from the 2008-09 financial crisis.\nThis also means that the U.S. practically is at full employment, even though the official jobless rate is 4.6%. But some five million people have left the labor force since the pandemic started, with most of them over the age of 55, according to Goldman Sachs economists, resulting from early (1.5 million) or regular (one million) retirements.\nThe economists think that most of the 1.7 million “prime age” labor-force dropouts are apt to return. Still, they contend that labor-force participation will remain below trend, which will result in the Fed adjusting its maximum employment goal accordingly.\nThe strength of the labor market can be seen in the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, which showed 10.44 million openings at the end of September and a record 3% quit rate.\nMeanwhile, the National Federation of Independent Business cited a lack of workers for unfilled positions, along with supply shortages, as the biggest problems in its October survey. This is forcing small businesses to boost compensation to the highest level since 1984.\nBrigden reckons that the U.S. central bank will view a 3.8% jobless rate as full employment, even though that’s above the 3.5% trough reached in February 2020, before Covid hit. That level might not be far off, given the indicators. The bad news, he adds, is that the current supereasy financial conditions are “utterly inappropriate,” given surging inflation and a strong labor market. \nThe Fed is only about to start reducing its $120 billion in monthly securities purchases by just $15 billion a month; at that rate, it will add over $400 billion to its $8.5 trillion balance sheet, which has more than doubled since February 2020, before the pandemic. And the central bank’s federal-funds rate target remains at a rock-bottom 0% to 0.25%.\nSo far, Brigden notes, financial conditions have tightened mainly at the short end of the Treasury market, where the two-year note’s yield has tripled since early August, to 0.52%, while the five-year yield in the “belly” of the curve has jumped to 1.23% from 0.65%, anticipating Fed rate hikes starting in mid-2022. But other measures, notably longer-term Treasury yields, credit spreads, and equity prices, remain supereasy.\nContaining surging inflation requires tighter financial conditions, Brigden concludes. That’s not priced into the markets, and definitely not into stock prices, with the major averages ending the week less than 1% from their respective records, with monetary and fiscal policies still set at 11.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1327,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
