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2021-12-15

$AEM HOLDINGS LTD(AWX.SI)$Director James Toh sold some shares, worth 1.8mil SGD.

2021-10-30

Great ariticle, would you like to share it?

@小虎活动:[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!

2021-10-22

Overreacted

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-09

Nice

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-01

Bullish

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2021-07-01

Ok

Amazon: Undervalued With Potential Upside Of 25%<blockquote>亚马逊：被低估，潜在上涨空间为25%</blockquote>

2021-06-23

Oh?

@小虎综合资讯:美国6月Markit制造业PMI初值：62.6，超过预期

2021-06-22

Nice

@桃李春风益点财:成长已死价值回归！巴菲特跟索罗斯都看好它？

2021-06-21

Hmmm

@小虎周报:美股周策略：为什么9月可能是探讨QE减量的窗口期？

2021-06-20

Hmmm

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-20

No..

@美股投资网:3艘豪华游轮爆疫情! 打了疫苗也感染，千人海上隔离！

2021-06-19

Ok

@小虎综合资讯:开盘：美股三大指数集体低开，石油股普跌

2021-06-18

Nice

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-17

PLTR

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2021-06-17

Yes

@小虎综合资讯:有通胀，无“牛市”？华尔街分析师：通胀不会伤害股市

2021-06-17

Nice

@美股研究社:传京东抖音合作将延伸海外，准备携手开拓欧洲市场

2021-06-17

Wow

@小虎综合资讯:嘉楠科技宣布获得一万台比特币矿机订单

2021-06-16

Wow

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-15

Oil

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-13

Ok

@小虎综合资讯:真格基金戴雨森：投资更像购物而非赌博，要耐心等待双十一

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AWX.SI\">$AEM HOLDINGS LTD(AWX.SI)$</a>Director James Toh sold some shares, worth 1.8mil SGD.","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AWX.SI\">$AEM HOLDINGS LTD(AWX.SI)$</a>Director James Toh sold some shares, worth 1.8mil SGD.","text":"$AEM HOLDINGS LTD(AWX.SI)$Director James Toh sold some shares, worth 1.8mil SGD.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607611037","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2897,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":840389093,"gmtCreate":1635589345989,"gmtModify":1635589346048,"author":{"id":"3579141850161287","authorId":"3579141850161287","name":"GoaOn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c41bfb0b74d5d9d2f6a9ec08f3a8cb42","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579141850161287","idStr":"3579141850161287"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/840389093","repostId":"850756569","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":850756569,"gmtCreate":1634631211448,"gmtModify":1635853120757,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e396d03155923b283948d2dec9191f8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"36984908995200","idStr":"36984908995200"},"themes":[],"title":"[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!","htmlText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","listText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","text":"Hello, dear Tigers! Happy Halloween! 🎃🎃🎃 Tap here to play the Halloween game, and you stand a chance to win various rewards! Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1. How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'. 2. How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850756569","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3491,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":851022858,"gmtCreate":1634860513707,"gmtModify":1634860513877,"author":{"id":"3579141850161287","authorId":"3579141850161287","name":"GoaOn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c41bfb0b74d5d9d2f6a9ec08f3a8cb42","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579141850161287","idStr":"3579141850161287"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Overreacted","listText":"Overreacted","text":"Overreacted","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/851022858","repostId":"2177467336","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2322,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":898617283,"gmtCreate":1628492693242,"gmtModify":1633746708955,"author":{"id":"3579141850161287","authorId":"3579141850161287","name":"GoaOn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c41bfb0b74d5d9d2f6a9ec08f3a8cb42","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579141850161287","idStr":"3579141850161287"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/898617283","repostId":"2158412365","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3101,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":158131170,"gmtCreate":1625135002790,"gmtModify":1633944423005,"author":{"id":"3579141850161287","authorId":"3579141850161287","name":"GoaOn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c41bfb0b74d5d9d2f6a9ec08f3a8cb42","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579141850161287","idStr":"3579141850161287"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bullish","listText":"Bullish","text":"Bullish","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/158131170","repostId":"1117904279","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2799,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":158133748,"gmtCreate":1625134972184,"gmtModify":1633944423352,"author":{"id":"3579141850161287","authorId":"3579141850161287","name":"GoaOn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c41bfb0b74d5d9d2f6a9ec08f3a8cb42","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579141850161287","idStr":"3579141850161287"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/158133748","repostId":"1113357649","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1113357649","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625133776,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1113357649?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-01 18:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon: Undervalued With Potential Upside Of 25%<blockquote>亚马逊：被低估，潜在上涨空间为25%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113357649","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Amazon is a unique and growing company that uses its disruptive platform to disrupt any new business it enters.I initiate Amazon with a bullish rating and a fair value of $3576/share .The company's improving top line and bottom line performance  suggests that the stock is currently undervalued by 3.9%.Amazon, a $1.74 trillion company. This is the current market capitalization  of the company and this implies that it is currently 15.18% away from being a $2 trillion company, not bad no?I initiate","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Amazon is a unique and growing company that uses its disruptive platform to disrupt any new business it enters.</li>  <li>I initiate Amazon with a bullish rating and a fair value of $3576/share (vs. the current price of $3443/share).</li>  <li>The company's improving top line and bottom line performance (which is expected to continue) suggests that the stock is currently undervalued by 3.9%.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51ce52baed5afae04a384059297465d3\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Daria Nipot/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>亚马逊是一家独特且不断发展的公司，它利用其颠覆性平台来颠覆其进入的任何新业务。</li><li>我对亚马逊的评级为看涨，公允价值为3576美元/股（当前价格为3443美元/股）。</li><li>该公司营收和利润业绩的改善（预计将持续下去）表明该股目前被低估了3.9%。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Daria Nipot/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Company Overview</b></p><p><blockquote><b>公司概况</b></blockquote></p><p> Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), a $1.74 trillion company. This is the current market capitalization (as of 06/29/2021) of the company and this implies that it is currently 15.18% away from being a $2 trillion company, not bad no?</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊（纳斯达克股票代码：AMZN），一家市值1.74万亿美元的公司。这是该公司目前的市值（截至2021年6月29日），这意味着它目前距离成为2万亿美元的公司还有15.18%的距离，还不错吧？</blockquote></p><p> Amazon is a unique and growing company that uses its disruptive platform to disrupt any new business it enters. For example, when Amazon announced the acquisition of Whole Foods, Walmart(NYSE:WMT), Kroger(NYSE:KR), Target(NYSE:TGT)took a&nbsp;nice hit&nbsp;in market value. I believe that the company will be able to keep delivering strong top line growth and continued growth in margins, fueled not only by the company's current business expansion but also by entering into new markets and new businesses.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊是一家独特且不断发展的公司，它利用其颠覆性平台来颠覆其进入的任何新业务。例如，当亚马逊宣布收购全食超市时，沃尔玛（纽约证券交易所代码：WMT）、克罗格（纽约证券交易所代码：KR）、塔吉特（纽约证券交易所代码：TGT）的市值遭受了巨大打击。我相信，公司将能够继续实现强劲的营收增长和利润率的持续增长，这不仅得益于公司当前的业务扩张，还得益于进入新市场和新业务。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Company Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>公司分析</b></blockquote></p><p> I initiate Amazon with a bullish rating and a fair value of $3576/share (vs. the current price of $3443/share). The FV is an algorithm-adjusted fair value (the algorithm takes into account fundamental and technical factors, such as DCF FV, momentum, etc.) and it implies that the stock is undervalued by 3.9%.</p><p><blockquote>我对亚马逊的评级为看涨，公允价值为3576美元/股（当前价格为3443美元/股）。FV是算法调整后的公允价值（算法考虑了基本面和技术因素，如DCF FV、动量等。）它意味着股票被低估了3.9%。</blockquote></p><p> To compute the DCF FV, I used the trailing twelve-month numbers and I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&amp;D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. As&nbsp;with Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL), I don't believe that Amazon's R&amp;D is an operating expense, and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&amp;D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).</p><p><blockquote>为了计算DCF FV，我使用了过去12个月的数据，并且我还重述了财务数据，因为我将可摊销期限为3年的研发费用资本化。与苹果（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）一样，我不认为亚马逊的研发是一项运营费用，因此，我将其视为资本支出。考虑到研发，以下指标已被重述（所有数字均以百万美元为单位）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb427d462596db1e1cb1ffc99acc90e4\" tg-width=\"571\" tg-height=\"240\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Capitalizing on R&amp;D expenses, we have now a more clear picture of the company (i.e. the restated operating margin is now 9.03% TTM vs the non-restated operating margin is 6.63% TTM).</p><p><blockquote>利用研发费用，我们现在对公司有了更清晰的了解（即重述营业利润率现在为9.03%TTM，而非重述营业利润率为6.63%TTM）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Discounted Cash Flow Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>折现现金流量模型</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们转向贴现现金流估值部分。下面，你可以看到我所做的相对假设的结果。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e215b21ca0b3be5a5e0e7b62e36fb5f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"268\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In my DCF model, I assume a revenue growth for the Y1 of 21.2%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 15% and I assume a terminal year growth rate of 1.48% (or the current yield on 10Y Treasury). The decision of using the current and not expected yield is due to the willingness to remain market neutral (perhaps you can use&nbsp;Goldman Sachs expectations&nbsp;of 1.9%). The current assumptions lead to revenues of $1,253,844 million in Y10.</p><p><blockquote>在我的DCF模型中，我假设Y1的收入增长率为21.2%，Y2-Y5的复合年增长率为15%，并假设最终年增长率为1.48%（或10年期国债的当前收益率）。使用当前而非预期收益率的决定是出于保持市场中性的意愿（或许可以使用高盛1.9%的预期）。目前的假设导致Y10的收入为12,538.44亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Along the road, I also assume an improving outlook for operating margins with the target operating margin of 13.2% (vs current restated operating margin of 9.03%). If the company will be able to meet this target, it will result in operating margins in Y10 of $163,097 million.</p><p><blockquote>在此过程中，我还假设营业利润率前景有所改善，目标营业利润率为13.2%（当前重述营业利润率为9.03%）。如果公司能够实现这一目标，2010年的营业利润率将达到1630.97亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, in doing my estimates, I used a WACC of 5.75% and a sales to capital ratio (or how much the company is going to reinvest to keep its business growing) of 2.95.</p><p><blockquote>最后，在进行估计时，我使用了5.75%的WACC和2.95的销售资本比率（或公司将进行多少再投资以保持业务增长）。</blockquote></p><p> By putting it together, I obtain a DCF value of $3328/share.</p><p><blockquote>通过将它们放在一起，我获得了3328美元/股的DCF值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Monte Carlo Simulation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蒙特卡罗模拟</b></blockquote></p><p> Rather than showing you only my point estimates, which may be right but also may be wrong, let's use probability distributions for inputs. Simulations allow us to assess the impact of continuous risk (e.g., changes in operating margins). In particular, I would like to focus on what I consider the main inputs of interest to get a bigger picture of the risk in the company. Those inputs are:</p><p><blockquote>与其只向您展示我的点估计，这可能是正确的，也可能是错误的，让我们使用概率分布作为输入。模拟使我们能够评估持续风险的影响（例如，营业利润率的变化）。特别是，我想重点关注我认为感兴趣的主要输入，以更好地了解公司的风险。这些输入是：</blockquote></p><p> <i>1. Revenue Growth:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>1、营收增长：</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In my DCF analysis, I assumed an expected CAGR Y2-Y5 of 15% with lower rates going forward. This assumption lead to revenues in Y10 of $1,253,844 million. While it is a reasonable assumption, Amazon is full of surprises, and it may deliver a top line growth well above my expectations. In the latter, I see a possible scenario with a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 24%, resulting in Y10 revenues of $1,989,952 million. However, we all know that regulators represent a big risk for the company. According to&nbsp;WSJ sources, if the \"giant-tech bill\" will pass, the company may be forced to either split into two companies or spin off its private-label product businesses. This represents a big risk that may slow down Amazon's growth, which could translate into a growth rate of 6% (resulting in Y10 revenues of $764,723 million). To sum up, I will assume a uniform distribution with a maximum of 24% and a minimum of 6%. The results are displayed below (this simulation and the next one have been performed 10,000 times).</p><p><blockquote>在我的DCF分析中，我假设Y2-Y5的预期复合年增长率为15%，未来利率较低。这一假设导致2010年的收入为125,384.4亿美元。虽然这是一个合理的假设，但亚马逊充满了惊喜，它可能会实现远高于我预期的营收增长。在后者中，我认为CAGR Y2-Y5为24%，导致Y10收入为1,9899.52亿美元。然而，我们都知道监管机构对公司来说是一个很大的风险。据《华尔街日报》消息人士透露，如果“巨人科技法案”获得通过，该公司可能会被迫拆分为两家公司或剥离其自有品牌产品业务。这是一个很大的风险，可能会减缓亚马逊的增长，这可能会转化为6%的增长率（导致Y10收入为7647.23亿美元）。综上所述，我将假设最大24%，最小6%的均匀分布。结果如下所示（该模拟和下一个模拟已经执行了10,000次）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/893dff753c8ca210759feb31b3966a5c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"235\"><span>Source:Author's estimates</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <i>2. Operating Margin</i>:</p><p><blockquote><i>2.营业利润率</i>：</blockquote></p><p> Currently, Amazon has a restated operating margin of 9.03% TTM (vs not restated EBIT margin of 6.83%). In my DCF, I assumed a target operating margin of 13.2%. While this represents my most likely scenario for the company, I cannot close my eyes to the fact that, even if the company is improving its margins, it is following a very slow climb. Below, I display the non-restated EBIT margin for the last 5 years.</p><p><blockquote>目前，亚马逊的TTM重述营业利润率为9.03%（未重述息税前利润率为6.83%）。在我的DCF中，我假设目标营业利润率为13.2%。虽然这代表了我对该公司最有可能的情况，但我不能忽视这样一个事实：即使该公司的利润率正在提高，但它的攀升速度也非常缓慢。下面，我显示了过去5年未经重述的息税前利润率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d66fcb05f4254b15de278f016121ffa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"221\"><span>Source:SeekingAlpha.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SeekingAlpha.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, as I stated at the beginning, Amazon is a disruptive company with the ability to do extraordinary things. For instance, AWS presents a current operating margin of 30% TTM and a revenue growth rate of 29.53% in 2020. A trend which is expected to continue, driven by improving outlook and with new partners joining the party. The last to join the party are Ferrari(NYSE:RACE)and Swisscom(OTCPK:SWZCF)who have chosen AWS as their&nbsp;preferred cloud partner.</p><p><blockquote>不过，正如我开头所说，亚马逊是一家颠覆性的公司，有能力做非凡的事情。例如，AWS目前的营业利润率为30%TTM，2020年收入增长率为29.53%。由于前景改善以及有新伙伴加入党，这一趋势有望持续。最后一个加入派对的是法拉利（纽约证券交易所代码：RACE）和瑞士电信（OTCPK代码：SWZCF），他们选择AWS作为首选的云合作伙伴。</blockquote></p><p> In 2020,according to Gartner, AWS generated revenue 2 times bigger than Microsoft(NASDAQ:MSFT). As stated by Gartner:</p><p><blockquote>根据Gartner的数据，2020年AWS的收入是微软（纳斯达克：MSFT）的2倍。如Gartner所述：</blockquote></p><p>   <i>The worldwide</i>&nbsp;  <i>infrastructure as a service(IaaS) market grew 40.7% in 2020 to total $64.3 billion, up from $45.7 billion in 2019, according to Gartner, Inc. Amazon retained the No. 1 position in the IaaS market in 2020, followed by Microsoft, Alibaba, Google and Huawei... Amazon continued to lead the worldwide IaaS market with $26.2 billion of revenue in 2020 and 41% market share.</i>  <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac00a17cbbd930ad6464a63f6d4f98eb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\"><span>Source:Gartner.com</span></p><p><blockquote><i>世界范围</i> <i>根据Gartner，Inc.的数据，基础设施即服务（IaaS）市场在2020年增长了40.7%，达到643亿美元，高于2019年的457亿美元。亚马逊在2020年保持了IaaS市场的第一名，其次是微软、阿里巴巴-SW、谷歌和华为...亚马逊在2020年以262亿美元的收入和41%的市场份额继续引领全球IaaS市场。</i><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Gartner.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Finally, to account for my concerns and beliefs, I will assume a triangular distribution with the following limits: the likeliest target operating margin of 13.2%, a maximum of 18.4%, and a minimum of 8% (close to the current company's EBIT margin). The results are displayed below.</p><p><blockquote>最后，为了说明我的担忧和信念，我将假设一个三角形分布，并有以下限制：最可能的目标营业利润率为13.2%，最高为18.4%，最低为8%（接近当前公司的息税前利润率）。结果如下所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/054e2db392be500768de741516186013\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"237\"><span>Source:Author's estimates</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <i>3. Cost of Capital:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>3.资金成本：</i></blockquote></p><p> The last input of interest is the cost of capital. In doing my analysis, I estimated a cost of capital of 5.8% (with the current 10Y rate of 1.48 and an implied ERP of 4.54%). However, I may be wrong due to sector risk estimates or changes in the business mix (or both). To account for the possibility that I made some mistakes along the road, I will rely on a lognormal distribution with the most likely scenario of 5.8%. The results of the simulation are displayed below.</p><p><blockquote>利息的最后一个输入是资本成本。在进行分析时，我估计资本成本为5.8%（当前10年利率为1.48，隐含ERP为4.54%）。然而，由于行业风险估计或业务组合的变化（或两者兼而有之），我可能是错误的。为了说明我在这条路上犯了一些错误的可能性，我将依赖对数正态分布，最有可能的情况是5.8%。模拟结果如下所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7d51740fa35eb9aedbc58c4c49d96eb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"235\"><span>Source:Author's estimates</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By putting all of this together, the simulations return the following results.</p><p><blockquote>通过将所有这些放在一起，模拟返回以下结果。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/139c89300706eab1e37dd1c992286d31\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"222\"><span>Source:Author's estimates</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For completeness, I also display below the relative and cumulative frequency of the simulation.</p><p><blockquote>为了完整起见，我还在下面显示了模拟的相对频率和累积频率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af7a908e21b8678a775a3e1742161a7d\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"644\"><span>Source:Author's estimates</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By looking at the results, we can see that the 50th percentile or the median is equal to $3274, close to the expected DCF FV of $3328. While the algorithm-adjusted FV of $3576 is the 60th percentile in my simulations (note also the long right tail).</p><p><blockquote>通过查看结果，我们可以看到第50百分位或中位数等于3274美元，接近预期的DCF FV 3328美元。而算法调整后的FV为3576美元，是我模拟中的第60百分位（也请注意右尾长）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Finally, simulation results give us an interesting insight into a potential exit point. I believe that an interesting take profit point may be within the 80th percentile, which implies a potential upside of 24.89%. Why within the 80th percentile? I believe that, after reaching the $2.0 trillion company status, we will see the last climb of euphoria before investors start to take profits.</p><p><blockquote>最后，模拟结果让我们对潜在的退出点有了有趣的了解。我认为一个有趣的止盈点可能在第80百分位内，这意味着24.89%的潜在上涨空间。为什么在第80百分位以内？我相信，在达到2.0万亿美元的公司地位后，我们将看到投资者开始获利了结之前最后一次兴奋的攀升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> Both the algorithm-adjusted fair value and the Monte Carlo simulation suggest and support the bullish rating. The results found suggest that the stock is currently undervalued and that the company has still more room to go. What may drive the price to go higher? Well, there are different factors that may drive it. One of those is for sure corporate news. For instance, the company may introduce new products or announce a stock split (For the latter, I think this is unlikely, at least not now). However, don't forget also the other side, the risks. There are many risks associated with being invested in the company, one of those is represented by antitrust and regulators.</p><p><blockquote>算法调整后的公允价值和蒙特卡罗模拟都建议并支持看涨评级。结果表明，该股目前被低估，该公司仍有更大的发展空间。什么可能会推动价格走高？嗯，有不同的因素可能会驱动它。其中之一肯定是企业新闻。例如，公司可能会推出新产品或宣布股票分割（对于后者，我认为这不太可能，至少现在不太可能）。然而，也不要忘记另一面，风险。投资该公司存在许多风险，其中之一就是反垄断和监管机构。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: Undervalued With Potential Upside Of 25%<blockquote>亚马逊：被低估，潜在上涨空间为25%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: Undervalued With Potential Upside Of 25%<blockquote>亚马逊：被低估，潜在上涨空间为25%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-01 18:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Amazon is a unique and growing company that uses its disruptive platform to disrupt any new business it enters.</li>  <li>I initiate Amazon with a bullish rating and a fair value of $3576/share (vs. the current price of $3443/share).</li>  <li>The company's improving top line and bottom line performance (which is expected to continue) suggests that the stock is currently undervalued by 3.9%.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51ce52baed5afae04a384059297465d3\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Daria Nipot/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>亚马逊是一家独特且不断发展的公司，它利用其颠覆性平台来颠覆其进入的任何新业务。</li><li>我对亚马逊的评级为看涨，公允价值为3576美元/股（当前价格为3443美元/股）。</li><li>该公司营收和利润业绩的改善（预计将持续下去）表明该股目前被低估了3.9%。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Daria Nipot/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Company Overview</b></p><p><blockquote><b>公司概况</b></blockquote></p><p> Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), a $1.74 trillion company. This is the current market capitalization (as of 06/29/2021) of the company and this implies that it is currently 15.18% away from being a $2 trillion company, not bad no?</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊（纳斯达克股票代码：AMZN），一家市值1.74万亿美元的公司。这是该公司目前的市值（截至2021年6月29日），这意味着它目前距离成为2万亿美元的公司还有15.18%的距离，还不错吧？</blockquote></p><p> Amazon is a unique and growing company that uses its disruptive platform to disrupt any new business it enters. For example, when Amazon announced the acquisition of Whole Foods, Walmart(NYSE:WMT), Kroger(NYSE:KR), Target(NYSE:TGT)took a&nbsp;nice hit&nbsp;in market value. I believe that the company will be able to keep delivering strong top line growth and continued growth in margins, fueled not only by the company's current business expansion but also by entering into new markets and new businesses.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊是一家独特且不断发展的公司，它利用其颠覆性平台来颠覆其进入的任何新业务。例如，当亚马逊宣布收购全食超市时，沃尔玛（纽约证券交易所代码：WMT）、克罗格（纽约证券交易所代码：KR）、塔吉特（纽约证券交易所代码：TGT）的市值遭受了巨大打击。我相信，公司将能够继续实现强劲的营收增长和利润率的持续增长，这不仅得益于公司当前的业务扩张，还得益于进入新市场和新业务。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Company Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>公司分析</b></blockquote></p><p> I initiate Amazon with a bullish rating and a fair value of $3576/share (vs. the current price of $3443/share). The FV is an algorithm-adjusted fair value (the algorithm takes into account fundamental and technical factors, such as DCF FV, momentum, etc.) and it implies that the stock is undervalued by 3.9%.</p><p><blockquote>我对亚马逊的评级为看涨，公允价值为3576美元/股（当前价格为3443美元/股）。FV是算法调整后的公允价值（算法考虑了基本面和技术因素，如DCF FV、动量等。）它意味着股票被低估了3.9%。</blockquote></p><p> To compute the DCF FV, I used the trailing twelve-month numbers and I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&amp;D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. As&nbsp;with Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL), I don't believe that Amazon's R&amp;D is an operating expense, and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&amp;D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).</p><p><blockquote>为了计算DCF FV，我使用了过去12个月的数据，并且我还重述了财务数据，因为我将可摊销期限为3年的研发费用资本化。与苹果（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）一样，我不认为亚马逊的研发是一项运营费用，因此，我将其视为资本支出。考虑到研发，以下指标已被重述（所有数字均以百万美元为单位）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb427d462596db1e1cb1ffc99acc90e4\" tg-width=\"571\" tg-height=\"240\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Capitalizing on R&amp;D expenses, we have now a more clear picture of the company (i.e. the restated operating margin is now 9.03% TTM vs the non-restated operating margin is 6.63% TTM).</p><p><blockquote>利用研发费用，我们现在对公司有了更清晰的了解（即重述营业利润率现在为9.03%TTM，而非重述营业利润率为6.63%TTM）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Discounted Cash Flow Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>折现现金流量模型</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们转向贴现现金流估值部分。下面，你可以看到我所做的相对假设的结果。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e215b21ca0b3be5a5e0e7b62e36fb5f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"268\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In my DCF model, I assume a revenue growth for the Y1 of 21.2%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 15% and I assume a terminal year growth rate of 1.48% (or the current yield on 10Y Treasury). The decision of using the current and not expected yield is due to the willingness to remain market neutral (perhaps you can use&nbsp;Goldman Sachs expectations&nbsp;of 1.9%). The current assumptions lead to revenues of $1,253,844 million in Y10.</p><p><blockquote>在我的DCF模型中，我假设Y1的收入增长率为21.2%，Y2-Y5的复合年增长率为15%，并假设最终年增长率为1.48%（或10年期国债的当前收益率）。使用当前而非预期收益率的决定是出于保持市场中性的意愿（或许可以使用高盛1.9%的预期）。目前的假设导致Y10的收入为12,538.44亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Along the road, I also assume an improving outlook for operating margins with the target operating margin of 13.2% (vs current restated operating margin of 9.03%). If the company will be able to meet this target, it will result in operating margins in Y10 of $163,097 million.</p><p><blockquote>在此过程中，我还假设营业利润率前景有所改善，目标营业利润率为13.2%（当前重述营业利润率为9.03%）。如果公司能够实现这一目标，2010年的营业利润率将达到1630.97亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, in doing my estimates, I used a WACC of 5.75% and a sales to capital ratio (or how much the company is going to reinvest to keep its business growing) of 2.95.</p><p><blockquote>最后，在进行估计时，我使用了5.75%的WACC和2.95的销售资本比率（或公司将进行多少再投资以保持业务增长）。</blockquote></p><p> By putting it together, I obtain a DCF value of $3328/share.</p><p><blockquote>通过将它们放在一起，我获得了3328美元/股的DCF值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Monte Carlo Simulation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蒙特卡罗模拟</b></blockquote></p><p> Rather than showing you only my point estimates, which may be right but also may be wrong, let's use probability distributions for inputs. Simulations allow us to assess the impact of continuous risk (e.g., changes in operating margins). In particular, I would like to focus on what I consider the main inputs of interest to get a bigger picture of the risk in the company. Those inputs are:</p><p><blockquote>与其只向您展示我的点估计，这可能是正确的，也可能是错误的，让我们使用概率分布作为输入。模拟使我们能够评估持续风险的影响（例如，营业利润率的变化）。特别是，我想重点关注我认为感兴趣的主要输入，以更好地了解公司的风险。这些输入是：</blockquote></p><p> <i>1. Revenue Growth:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>1、营收增长：</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In my DCF analysis, I assumed an expected CAGR Y2-Y5 of 15% with lower rates going forward. This assumption lead to revenues in Y10 of $1,253,844 million. While it is a reasonable assumption, Amazon is full of surprises, and it may deliver a top line growth well above my expectations. In the latter, I see a possible scenario with a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 24%, resulting in Y10 revenues of $1,989,952 million. However, we all know that regulators represent a big risk for the company. According to&nbsp;WSJ sources, if the \"giant-tech bill\" will pass, the company may be forced to either split into two companies or spin off its private-label product businesses. This represents a big risk that may slow down Amazon's growth, which could translate into a growth rate of 6% (resulting in Y10 revenues of $764,723 million). To sum up, I will assume a uniform distribution with a maximum of 24% and a minimum of 6%. The results are displayed below (this simulation and the next one have been performed 10,000 times).</p><p><blockquote>在我的DCF分析中，我假设Y2-Y5的预期复合年增长率为15%，未来利率较低。这一假设导致2010年的收入为125,384.4亿美元。虽然这是一个合理的假设，但亚马逊充满了惊喜，它可能会实现远高于我预期的营收增长。在后者中，我认为CAGR Y2-Y5为24%，导致Y10收入为1,9899.52亿美元。然而，我们都知道监管机构对公司来说是一个很大的风险。据《华尔街日报》消息人士透露，如果“巨人科技法案”获得通过，该公司可能会被迫拆分为两家公司或剥离其自有品牌产品业务。这是一个很大的风险，可能会减缓亚马逊的增长，这可能会转化为6%的增长率（导致Y10收入为7647.23亿美元）。综上所述，我将假设最大24%，最小6%的均匀分布。结果如下所示（该模拟和下一个模拟已经执行了10,000次）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/893dff753c8ca210759feb31b3966a5c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"235\"><span>Source:Author's estimates</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <i>2. Operating Margin</i>:</p><p><blockquote><i>2.营业利润率</i>：</blockquote></p><p> Currently, Amazon has a restated operating margin of 9.03% TTM (vs not restated EBIT margin of 6.83%). In my DCF, I assumed a target operating margin of 13.2%. While this represents my most likely scenario for the company, I cannot close my eyes to the fact that, even if the company is improving its margins, it is following a very slow climb. Below, I display the non-restated EBIT margin for the last 5 years.</p><p><blockquote>目前，亚马逊的TTM重述营业利润率为9.03%（未重述息税前利润率为6.83%）。在我的DCF中，我假设目标营业利润率为13.2%。虽然这代表了我对该公司最有可能的情况，但我不能忽视这样一个事实：即使该公司的利润率正在提高，但它的攀升速度也非常缓慢。下面，我显示了过去5年未经重述的息税前利润率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d66fcb05f4254b15de278f016121ffa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"221\"><span>Source:SeekingAlpha.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SeekingAlpha.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, as I stated at the beginning, Amazon is a disruptive company with the ability to do extraordinary things. For instance, AWS presents a current operating margin of 30% TTM and a revenue growth rate of 29.53% in 2020. A trend which is expected to continue, driven by improving outlook and with new partners joining the party. The last to join the party are Ferrari(NYSE:RACE)and Swisscom(OTCPK:SWZCF)who have chosen AWS as their&nbsp;preferred cloud partner.</p><p><blockquote>不过，正如我开头所说，亚马逊是一家颠覆性的公司，有能力做非凡的事情。例如，AWS目前的营业利润率为30%TTM，2020年收入增长率为29.53%。由于前景改善以及有新伙伴加入党，这一趋势有望持续。最后一个加入派对的是法拉利（纽约证券交易所代码：RACE）和瑞士电信（OTCPK代码：SWZCF），他们选择AWS作为首选的云合作伙伴。</blockquote></p><p> In 2020,according to Gartner, AWS generated revenue 2 times bigger than Microsoft(NASDAQ:MSFT). As stated by Gartner:</p><p><blockquote>根据Gartner的数据，2020年AWS的收入是微软（纳斯达克：MSFT）的2倍。如Gartner所述：</blockquote></p><p>   <i>The worldwide</i>&nbsp;  <i>infrastructure as a service(IaaS) market grew 40.7% in 2020 to total $64.3 billion, up from $45.7 billion in 2019, according to Gartner, Inc. Amazon retained the No. 1 position in the IaaS market in 2020, followed by Microsoft, Alibaba, Google and Huawei... Amazon continued to lead the worldwide IaaS market with $26.2 billion of revenue in 2020 and 41% market share.</i>  <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac00a17cbbd930ad6464a63f6d4f98eb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\"><span>Source:Gartner.com</span></p><p><blockquote><i>世界范围</i> <i>根据Gartner，Inc.的数据，基础设施即服务（IaaS）市场在2020年增长了40.7%，达到643亿美元，高于2019年的457亿美元。亚马逊在2020年保持了IaaS市场的第一名，其次是微软、阿里巴巴-SW、谷歌和华为...亚马逊在2020年以262亿美元的收入和41%的市场份额继续引领全球IaaS市场。</i><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Gartner.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Finally, to account for my concerns and beliefs, I will assume a triangular distribution with the following limits: the likeliest target operating margin of 13.2%, a maximum of 18.4%, and a minimum of 8% (close to the current company's EBIT margin). The results are displayed below.</p><p><blockquote>最后，为了说明我的担忧和信念，我将假设一个三角形分布，并有以下限制：最可能的目标营业利润率为13.2%，最高为18.4%，最低为8%（接近当前公司的息税前利润率）。结果如下所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/054e2db392be500768de741516186013\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"237\"><span>Source:Author's estimates</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <i>3. Cost of Capital:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>3.资金成本：</i></blockquote></p><p> The last input of interest is the cost of capital. In doing my analysis, I estimated a cost of capital of 5.8% (with the current 10Y rate of 1.48 and an implied ERP of 4.54%). However, I may be wrong due to sector risk estimates or changes in the business mix (or both). To account for the possibility that I made some mistakes along the road, I will rely on a lognormal distribution with the most likely scenario of 5.8%. The results of the simulation are displayed below.</p><p><blockquote>利息的最后一个输入是资本成本。在进行分析时，我估计资本成本为5.8%（当前10年利率为1.48，隐含ERP为4.54%）。然而，由于行业风险估计或业务组合的变化（或两者兼而有之），我可能是错误的。为了说明我在这条路上犯了一些错误的可能性，我将依赖对数正态分布，最有可能的情况是5.8%。模拟结果如下所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7d51740fa35eb9aedbc58c4c49d96eb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"235\"><span>Source:Author's estimates</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By putting all of this together, the simulations return the following results.</p><p><blockquote>通过将所有这些放在一起，模拟返回以下结果。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/139c89300706eab1e37dd1c992286d31\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"222\"><span>Source:Author's estimates</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For completeness, I also display below the relative and cumulative frequency of the simulation.</p><p><blockquote>为了完整起见，我还在下面显示了模拟的相对频率和累积频率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af7a908e21b8678a775a3e1742161a7d\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"644\"><span>Source:Author's estimates</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By looking at the results, we can see that the 50th percentile or the median is equal to $3274, close to the expected DCF FV of $3328. While the algorithm-adjusted FV of $3576 is the 60th percentile in my simulations (note also the long right tail).</p><p><blockquote>通过查看结果，我们可以看到第50百分位或中位数等于3274美元，接近预期的DCF FV 3328美元。而算法调整后的FV为3576美元，是我模拟中的第60百分位（也请注意右尾长）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Finally, simulation results give us an interesting insight into a potential exit point. I believe that an interesting take profit point may be within the 80th percentile, which implies a potential upside of 24.89%. Why within the 80th percentile? I believe that, after reaching the $2.0 trillion company status, we will see the last climb of euphoria before investors start to take profits.</p><p><blockquote>最后，模拟结果让我们对潜在的退出点有了有趣的了解。我认为一个有趣的止盈点可能在第80百分位内，这意味着24.89%的潜在上涨空间。为什么在第80百分位以内？我相信，在达到2.0万亿美元的公司地位后，我们将看到投资者开始获利了结之前最后一次兴奋的攀升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> Both the algorithm-adjusted fair value and the Monte Carlo simulation suggest and support the bullish rating. The results found suggest that the stock is currently undervalued and that the company has still more room to go. What may drive the price to go higher? Well, there are different factors that may drive it. One of those is for sure corporate news. For instance, the company may introduce new products or announce a stock split (For the latter, I think this is unlikely, at least not now). However, don't forget also the other side, the risks. There are many risks associated with being invested in the company, one of those is represented by antitrust and regulators.</p><p><blockquote>算法调整后的公允价值和蒙特卡罗模拟都建议并支持看涨评级。结果表明，该股目前被低估，该公司仍有更大的发展空间。什么可能会推动价格走高？嗯，有不同的因素可能会驱动它。其中之一肯定是企业新闻。例如，公司可能会推出新产品或宣布股票分割（对于后者，我认为这不太可能，至少现在不太可能）。然而，也不要忘记另一面，风险。投资该公司存在许多风险，其中之一就是反垄断和监管机构。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437291-amazon-stock-amzn-undervalued-with-potential-upside-of-25-percent\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437291-amazon-stock-amzn-undervalued-with-potential-upside-of-25-percent","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1113357649","content_text":"Summary\n\nAmazon is a unique and growing company that uses its disruptive platform to disrupt any new business it enters.\nI initiate Amazon with a bullish rating and a fair value of $3576/share (vs. the current price of $3443/share).\nThe company's improving top line and bottom line performance (which is expected to continue) suggests that the stock is currently undervalued by 3.9%.\n\nDaria Nipot/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nCompany Overview\nAmazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), a $1.74 trillion company. This is the current market capitalization (as of 06/29/2021) of the company and this implies that it is currently 15.18% away from being a $2 trillion company, not bad no?\nAmazon is a unique and growing company that uses its disruptive platform to disrupt any new business it enters. For example, when Amazon announced the acquisition of Whole Foods, Walmart(NYSE:WMT), Kroger(NYSE:KR), Target(NYSE:TGT)took a nice hit in market value. I believe that the company will be able to keep delivering strong top line growth and continued growth in margins, fueled not only by the company's current business expansion but also by entering into new markets and new businesses.\nCompany Analysis\nI initiate Amazon with a bullish rating and a fair value of $3576/share (vs. the current price of $3443/share). The FV is an algorithm-adjusted fair value (the algorithm takes into account fundamental and technical factors, such as DCF FV, momentum, etc.) and it implies that the stock is undervalued by 3.9%.\nTo compute the DCF FV, I used the trailing twelve-month numbers and I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. As with Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL), I don't believe that Amazon's R&D is an operating expense, and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nCapitalizing on R&D expenses, we have now a more clear picture of the company (i.e. the restated operating margin is now 9.03% TTM vs the non-restated operating margin is 6.63% TTM).\nDiscounted Cash Flow Model\nNow, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nIn my DCF model, I assume a revenue growth for the Y1 of 21.2%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 15% and I assume a terminal year growth rate of 1.48% (or the current yield on 10Y Treasury). The decision of using the current and not expected yield is due to the willingness to remain market neutral (perhaps you can use Goldman Sachs expectations of 1.9%). The current assumptions lead to revenues of $1,253,844 million in Y10.\nAlong the road, I also assume an improving outlook for operating margins with the target operating margin of 13.2% (vs current restated operating margin of 9.03%). If the company will be able to meet this target, it will result in operating margins in Y10 of $163,097 million.\nFinally, in doing my estimates, I used a WACC of 5.75% and a sales to capital ratio (or how much the company is going to reinvest to keep its business growing) of 2.95.\nBy putting it together, I obtain a DCF value of $3328/share.\nMonte Carlo Simulation\nRather than showing you only my point estimates, which may be right but also may be wrong, let's use probability distributions for inputs. Simulations allow us to assess the impact of continuous risk (e.g., changes in operating margins). In particular, I would like to focus on what I consider the main inputs of interest to get a bigger picture of the risk in the company. Those inputs are:\n1. Revenue Growth:\nIn my DCF analysis, I assumed an expected CAGR Y2-Y5 of 15% with lower rates going forward. This assumption lead to revenues in Y10 of $1,253,844 million. While it is a reasonable assumption, Amazon is full of surprises, and it may deliver a top line growth well above my expectations. In the latter, I see a possible scenario with a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 24%, resulting in Y10 revenues of $1,989,952 million. However, we all know that regulators represent a big risk for the company. According to WSJ sources, if the \"giant-tech bill\" will pass, the company may be forced to either split into two companies or spin off its private-label product businesses. This represents a big risk that may slow down Amazon's growth, which could translate into a growth rate of 6% (resulting in Y10 revenues of $764,723 million). To sum up, I will assume a uniform distribution with a maximum of 24% and a minimum of 6%. The results are displayed below (this simulation and the next one have been performed 10,000 times).\nSource:Author's estimates\n2. Operating Margin:\nCurrently, Amazon has a restated operating margin of 9.03% TTM (vs not restated EBIT margin of 6.83%). In my DCF, I assumed a target operating margin of 13.2%. While this represents my most likely scenario for the company, I cannot close my eyes to the fact that, even if the company is improving its margins, it is following a very slow climb. Below, I display the non-restated EBIT margin for the last 5 years.\nSource:SeekingAlpha.com\nHowever, as I stated at the beginning, Amazon is a disruptive company with the ability to do extraordinary things. For instance, AWS presents a current operating margin of 30% TTM and a revenue growth rate of 29.53% in 2020. A trend which is expected to continue, driven by improving outlook and with new partners joining the party. The last to join the party are Ferrari(NYSE:RACE)and Swisscom(OTCPK:SWZCF)who have chosen AWS as their preferred cloud partner.\nIn 2020,according to Gartner, AWS generated revenue 2 times bigger than Microsoft(NASDAQ:MSFT). As stated by Gartner:\n\nThe worldwide \n infrastructure as a service(IaaS) market grew 40.7% in 2020 to total $64.3 billion, up from $45.7 billion in 2019, according to Gartner, Inc. Amazon retained the No. 1 position in the IaaS market in 2020, followed by Microsoft, Alibaba, Google and Huawei... Amazon continued to lead the worldwide IaaS market with $26.2 billion of revenue in 2020 and 41% market share.\n\nSource:Gartner.com\nFinally, to account for my concerns and beliefs, I will assume a triangular distribution with the following limits: the likeliest target operating margin of 13.2%, a maximum of 18.4%, and a minimum of 8% (close to the current company's EBIT margin). The results are displayed below.\nSource:Author's estimates\n3. Cost of Capital:\nThe last input of interest is the cost of capital. In doing my analysis, I estimated a cost of capital of 5.8% (with the current 10Y rate of 1.48 and an implied ERP of 4.54%). However, I may be wrong due to sector risk estimates or changes in the business mix (or both). To account for the possibility that I made some mistakes along the road, I will rely on a lognormal distribution with the most likely scenario of 5.8%. The results of the simulation are displayed below.\nSource:Author's estimates\nBy putting all of this together, the simulations return the following results.\nSource:Author's estimates\nFor completeness, I also display below the relative and cumulative frequency of the simulation.\nSource:Author's estimates\nBy looking at the results, we can see that the 50th percentile or the median is equal to $3274, close to the expected DCF FV of $3328. While the algorithm-adjusted FV of $3576 is the 60th percentile in my simulations (note also the long right tail).\nFinally, simulation results give us an interesting insight into a potential exit point. I believe that an interesting take profit point may be within the 80th percentile, which implies a potential upside of 24.89%. Why within the 80th percentile? I believe that, after reaching the $2.0 trillion company status, we will see the last climb of euphoria before investors start to take profits.\nFinal Thoughts\nBoth the algorithm-adjusted fair value and the Monte Carlo simulation suggest and support the bullish rating. The results found suggest that the stock is currently undervalued and that the company has still more room to go. What may drive the price to go higher? Well, there are different factors that may drive it. One of those is for sure corporate news. For instance, the company may introduce new products or announce a stock split (For the latter, I think this is unlikely, at least not now). However, don't forget also the other side, the risks. There are many risks associated with being invested in the company, one of those is represented by antitrust and regulators.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1593,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121159297,"gmtCreate":1624457239519,"gmtModify":1634005868060,"author":{"id":"3579141850161287","authorId":"3579141850161287","name":"GoaOn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c41bfb0b74d5d9d2f6a9ec08f3a8cb42","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579141850161287","idStr":"3579141850161287"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh?","listText":"Oh?","text":"Oh?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121159297","repostId":"121111798","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":121111798,"gmtCreate":1624456468908,"gmtModify":1624456468908,"author":{"id":"3527667586584720","authorId":"3527667586584720","name":"小虎综合资讯","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667586584720","idStr":"3527667586584720"},"themes":[],"title":"美国6月Markit制造业PMI初值：62.6，超过预期","htmlText":"美国6月Markit制造业PMI初值：62.6，预期：61.4，前值：62.1。 美国6月Markit服务业PMI初值：64.8，预期：70，前值：70.4。","listText":"美国6月Markit制造业PMI初值：62.6，预期：61.4，前值：62.1。 美国6月Markit服务业PMI初值：64.8，预期：70，前值：70.4。","text":"美国6月Markit制造业PMI初值：62.6，预期：61.4，前值：62.1。 美国6月Markit服务业PMI初值：64.8，预期：70，前值：70.4。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121111798","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1843,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129898008,"gmtCreate":1624368326904,"gmtModify":1634007201975,"author":{"id":"3579141850161287","authorId":"3579141850161287","name":"GoaOn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c41bfb0b74d5d9d2f6a9ec08f3a8cb42","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579141850161287","idStr":"3579141850161287"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/129898008","repostId":"129118261","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":129118261,"gmtCreate":1624364742153,"gmtModify":1744960697098,"author":{"id":"3497328009582754","authorId":"3497328009582754","name":"桃李春风益点财","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc8827e0d2ccb8087a4e15cbe447ad5c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3497328009582754","idStr":"3497328009582754"},"themes":[],"title":"成长已死 价值回归！巴菲特跟索罗斯都看好它？","htmlText":"摘要：无论你认可巴菲特，还是认同索罗斯，现在都可以把握这类股票的交易机会，因为它竟然同时符合这两位大佬的理念！本文聚焦PART1：巴菲特VS索罗斯，你会站队谁？PART2：价值股正成为趋势股，两位大佬殊途同归？贝瑞研究声明：文中观点基于公开市场信息和历史数据形成，不作为直接投资建议，仅供交流，欢迎留言探讨相关话题。图注：图片源自网络，侵权请联系删除PART1：巴菲特VS索罗斯，你会站队谁？在很多时候，投资者都得做该如何站队这道选择题，是站巴菲特还是索罗斯？投资家沃伦•巴菲特和乔治•索罗斯的成功颇具传奇性。无论是索罗斯在“干倒英格兰银行”期间赚了10亿美元，还是巴菲特从可口可乐这只股票中获得了1550%的回报，都战绩赫赫，是很多人难以复制的成功。但如果投资者有意模仿这些传奇人物的投资套路，通常只能选一个大佬来追随。因为，这两位投资大佬对波动性和风险的观点，是截然相反的。在大多数时候，投资者要么站队巴菲特阵营，要么站队索罗斯阵营。巴菲特以价值投资著称，他谨慎地专注于基本面强劲的公司。他是个长线投资者，不擅长做投机交易。长期来看，他也已经证明了自己的策略是有效的——他的投资回报率足以甩大多数投机者几条街。巴菲特有句名言:“只有当潮水退去，你才会知道谁在裸泳。”换句话说，就是牛市给过度风险的押注提供了掩护。但如果投资者一直在冒险，却没有尽职做好调研，并为下跌做好充足的准备，那么在泡沫破裂时，投资者将会首当其冲。与巴菲特相反，索罗斯则喜欢投身强势的市场趋势中（译者注：趋势投资者，即我们常说的追涨杀跌），正如他在2009年所说的:“当我看到泡沫形成后，我就会赶紧买入，火上浇油一把。”图注：图片源自网络，侵权请联系删除在索罗斯看来，投机狂潮并不是一个危险信号，反而是一个机会。市场在脱离基本面后，它们会以在前所未有的速度上涨，这在盈利增长固定的情况下根本无法想象。在这种时候，索罗斯的投资哲","listText":"摘要：无论你认可巴菲特，还是认同索罗斯，现在都可以把握这类股票的交易机会，因为它竟然同时符合这两位大佬的理念！本文聚焦PART1：巴菲特VS索罗斯，你会站队谁？PART2：价值股正成为趋势股，两位大佬殊途同归？贝瑞研究声明：文中观点基于公开市场信息和历史数据形成，不作为直接投资建议，仅供交流，欢迎留言探讨相关话题。图注：图片源自网络，侵权请联系删除PART1：巴菲特VS索罗斯，你会站队谁？在很多时候，投资者都得做该如何站队这道选择题，是站巴菲特还是索罗斯？投资家沃伦•巴菲特和乔治•索罗斯的成功颇具传奇性。无论是索罗斯在“干倒英格兰银行”期间赚了10亿美元，还是巴菲特从可口可乐这只股票中获得了1550%的回报，都战绩赫赫，是很多人难以复制的成功。但如果投资者有意模仿这些传奇人物的投资套路，通常只能选一个大佬来追随。因为，这两位投资大佬对波动性和风险的观点，是截然相反的。在大多数时候，投资者要么站队巴菲特阵营，要么站队索罗斯阵营。巴菲特以价值投资著称，他谨慎地专注于基本面强劲的公司。他是个长线投资者，不擅长做投机交易。长期来看，他也已经证明了自己的策略是有效的——他的投资回报率足以甩大多数投机者几条街。巴菲特有句名言:“只有当潮水退去，你才会知道谁在裸泳。”换句话说，就是牛市给过度风险的押注提供了掩护。但如果投资者一直在冒险，却没有尽职做好调研，并为下跌做好充足的准备，那么在泡沫破裂时，投资者将会首当其冲。与巴菲特相反，索罗斯则喜欢投身强势的市场趋势中（译者注：趋势投资者，即我们常说的追涨杀跌），正如他在2009年所说的:“当我看到泡沫形成后，我就会赶紧买入，火上浇油一把。”图注：图片源自网络，侵权请联系删除在索罗斯看来，投机狂潮并不是一个危险信号，反而是一个机会。市场在脱离基本面后，它们会以在前所未有的速度上涨，这在盈利增长固定的情况下根本无法想象。在这种时候，索罗斯的投资哲","text":"摘要：无论你认可巴菲特，还是认同索罗斯，现在都可以把握这类股票的交易机会，因为它竟然同时符合这两位大佬的理念！本文聚焦PART1：巴菲特VS索罗斯，你会站队谁？PART2：价值股正成为趋势股，两位大佬殊途同归？贝瑞研究声明：文中观点基于公开市场信息和历史数据形成，不作为直接投资建议，仅供交流，欢迎留言探讨相关话题。图注：图片源自网络，侵权请联系删除PART1：巴菲特VS索罗斯，你会站队谁？在很多时候，投资者都得做该如何站队这道选择题，是站巴菲特还是索罗斯？投资家沃伦•巴菲特和乔治•索罗斯的成功颇具传奇性。无论是索罗斯在“干倒英格兰银行”期间赚了10亿美元，还是巴菲特从可口可乐这只股票中获得了1550%的回报，都战绩赫赫，是很多人难以复制的成功。但如果投资者有意模仿这些传奇人物的投资套路，通常只能选一个大佬来追随。因为，这两位投资大佬对波动性和风险的观点，是截然相反的。在大多数时候，投资者要么站队巴菲特阵营，要么站队索罗斯阵营。巴菲特以价值投资著称，他谨慎地专注于基本面强劲的公司。他是个长线投资者，不擅长做投机交易。长期来看，他也已经证明了自己的策略是有效的——他的投资回报率足以甩大多数投机者几条街。巴菲特有句名言:“只有当潮水退去，你才会知道谁在裸泳。”换句话说，就是牛市给过度风险的押注提供了掩护。但如果投资者一直在冒险，却没有尽职做好调研，并为下跌做好充足的准备，那么在泡沫破裂时，投资者将会首当其冲。与巴菲特相反，索罗斯则喜欢投身强势的市场趋势中（译者注：趋势投资者，即我们常说的追涨杀跌），正如他在2009年所说的:“当我看到泡沫形成后，我就会赶紧买入，火上浇油一把。”图注：图片源自网络，侵权请联系删除在索罗斯看来，投机狂潮并不是一个危险信号，反而是一个机会。市场在脱离基本面后，它们会以在前所未有的速度上涨，这在盈利增长固定的情况下根本无法想象。在这种时候，索罗斯的投资哲","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c9c8f657e724dc114ffd08031358177","width":"480","height":"300"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eeefc8653f315e8ffe09fe68ef472de0","width":"605","height":"404"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a6652af46f151459b15f70959441798","width":"1020","height":"1350"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/129118261","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":1,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1975,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167667153,"gmtCreate":1624266151072,"gmtModify":1634008687377,"author":{"id":"3579141850161287","authorId":"3579141850161287","name":"GoaOn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c41bfb0b74d5d9d2f6a9ec08f3a8cb42","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579141850161287","idStr":"3579141850161287"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hmmm","listText":"Hmmm","text":"Hmmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167667153","repostId":"167823224","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":167823224,"gmtCreate":1624260366964,"gmtModify":1624267800189,"author":{"id":"36979109942400","authorId":"36979109942400","name":"小虎周报","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/f7b172cf773c77a3f0df67695c126b51","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"36979109942400","idStr":"36979109942400"},"themes":[],"title":"美股周策略：为什么9月可能是探讨QE减量的窗口期？","htmlText":"上周FOMC后美股市场出现回撤，或存在一定技术性因素。从政策上看，美联储如市场普遍预期一样，选择按兵不动，也未暗示减量。鲍威尔表示QE的退出，一定将是充分且会提前管理预期，同时强调目前距离真正减量还有一定时间。（就业市场长足复苏前谈及Tapering为时尚早）。 如果是从对资产价格的影响来看（例如图1，我们主要参考流动性）。对美股来讲，基本可以理解为市场还处在讨论是否要开始去探讨QE减量这件事情的阶段。此前市场预期的紧缩节点，仍然在四季度阶段。我们不妨进一步来观察这个微妙的时间窗口。就业市场情绪或在财政纾困告一段落后才会充分释放，缩减购债规模的探讨预计最快9月 在美联储的政策工具中，由于加息与否更注重对通胀的观测，QE更注重对于就业市场表现的观测。所以美联储在目前的通胀压力下，上调了加息预期，在就业连续4、5两月低于预期的情况下，并未谈及关于缩减购债规模的言论。 从就业市场的角度看，目前美国一系列财政纾困将在今夏逐步告一段落，例如6月开始，全美就已经有 25 个州宣布将在9月这一法定到期日前提前结束每周300美元的增强失业救助，这么看下来，对于就业情绪的激活可能会在8月公布的7月FOMC中体现。对应美联储缩减购债规模的讨论可能最快在九月FOMC时提上日程，最早在市场普遍预计的四季度开始收紧购债规模。（今年剩下的FOMC还有7月27-28日，9月21-22日、11月2-3日、12月14-15日）。 另一方面，由于通胀数据属于同比指标范畴，涉及到低基数问题，因此影响较大的本身就在年内。我们预计从中期来看，随着时间的推移，下半年开始到明年，通胀预期逐渐回落后，加息的预期可能会随之缓解。 当然三季度通胀和就业的变化，依旧牵动市场，往前看，两个比较重要的事情是，7月上旬开始的财报季盈利情绪调整（积极的话有望产生预跑行情），8月上旬非农后开启的另一个行情变化窗口期（通胀和就业的变化）&lt;","listText":"上周FOMC后美股市场出现回撤，或存在一定技术性因素。从政策上看，美联储如市场普遍预期一样，选择按兵不动，也未暗示减量。鲍威尔表示QE的退出，一定将是充分且会提前管理预期，同时强调目前距离真正减量还有一定时间。（就业市场长足复苏前谈及Tapering为时尚早）。 如果是从对资产价格的影响来看（例如图1，我们主要参考流动性）。对美股来讲，基本可以理解为市场还处在讨论是否要开始去探讨QE减量这件事情的阶段。此前市场预期的紧缩节点，仍然在四季度阶段。我们不妨进一步来观察这个微妙的时间窗口。就业市场情绪或在财政纾困告一段落后才会充分释放，缩减购债规模的探讨预计最快9月 在美联储的政策工具中，由于加息与否更注重对通胀的观测，QE更注重对于就业市场表现的观测。所以美联储在目前的通胀压力下，上调了加息预期，在就业连续4、5两月低于预期的情况下，并未谈及关于缩减购债规模的言论。 从就业市场的角度看，目前美国一系列财政纾困将在今夏逐步告一段落，例如6月开始，全美就已经有 25 个州宣布将在9月这一法定到期日前提前结束每周300美元的增强失业救助，这么看下来，对于就业情绪的激活可能会在8月公布的7月FOMC中体现。对应美联储缩减购债规模的讨论可能最快在九月FOMC时提上日程，最早在市场普遍预计的四季度开始收紧购债规模。（今年剩下的FOMC还有7月27-28日，9月21-22日、11月2-3日、12月14-15日）。 另一方面，由于通胀数据属于同比指标范畴，涉及到低基数问题，因此影响较大的本身就在年内。我们预计从中期来看，随着时间的推移，下半年开始到明年，通胀预期逐渐回落后，加息的预期可能会随之缓解。 当然三季度通胀和就业的变化，依旧牵动市场，往前看，两个比较重要的事情是，7月上旬开始的财报季盈利情绪调整（积极的话有望产生预跑行情），8月上旬非农后开启的另一个行情变化窗口期（通胀和就业的变化）&lt;","text":"上周FOMC后美股市场出现回撤，或存在一定技术性因素。从政策上看，美联储如市场普遍预期一样，选择按兵不动，也未暗示减量。鲍威尔表示QE的退出，一定将是充分且会提前管理预期，同时强调目前距离真正减量还有一定时间。（就业市场长足复苏前谈及Tapering为时尚早）。 如果是从对资产价格的影响来看（例如图1，我们主要参考流动性）。对美股来讲，基本可以理解为市场还处在讨论是否要开始去探讨QE减量这件事情的阶段。此前市场预期的紧缩节点，仍然在四季度阶段。我们不妨进一步来观察这个微妙的时间窗口。就业市场情绪或在财政纾困告一段落后才会充分释放，缩减购债规模的探讨预计最快9月 在美联储的政策工具中，由于加息与否更注重对通胀的观测，QE更注重对于就业市场表现的观测。所以美联储在目前的通胀压力下，上调了加息预期，在就业连续4、5两月低于预期的情况下，并未谈及关于缩减购债规模的言论。 从就业市场的角度看，目前美国一系列财政纾困将在今夏逐步告一段落，例如6月开始，全美就已经有 25 个州宣布将在9月这一法定到期日前提前结束每周300美元的增强失业救助，这么看下来，对于就业情绪的激活可能会在8月公布的7月FOMC中体现。对应美联储缩减购债规模的讨论可能最快在九月FOMC时提上日程，最早在市场普遍预计的四季度开始收紧购债规模。（今年剩下的FOMC还有7月27-28日，9月21-22日、11月2-3日、12月14-15日）。 另一方面，由于通胀数据属于同比指标范畴，涉及到低基数问题，因此影响较大的本身就在年内。我们预计从中期来看，随着时间的推移，下半年开始到明年，通胀预期逐渐回落后，加息的预期可能会随之缓解。 当然三季度通胀和就业的变化，依旧牵动市场，往前看，两个比较重要的事情是，7月上旬开始的财报季盈利情绪调整（积极的话有望产生预跑行情），8月上旬非农后开启的另一个行情变化窗口期（通胀和就业的变化）<","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c64fde2e1c9d806b3d025172d1228d4","width":"1437","height":"851"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167823224","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1972,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164931221,"gmtCreate":1624164677663,"gmtModify":1634009926026,"author":{"id":"3579141850161287","authorId":"3579141850161287","name":"GoaOn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c41bfb0b74d5d9d2f6a9ec08f3a8cb42","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579141850161287","idStr":"3579141850161287"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hmmm","listText":"Hmmm","text":"Hmmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164931221","repostId":"2144777837","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2047,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164992229,"gmtCreate":1624164329161,"gmtModify":1634009932107,"author":{"id":"3579141850161287","authorId":"3579141850161287","name":"GoaOn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c41bfb0b74d5d9d2f6a9ec08f3a8cb42","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579141850161287","idStr":"3579141850161287"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"No..","listText":"No..","text":"No..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164992229","repostId":"162741346","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":162741346,"gmtCreate":1624077544985,"gmtModify":1624131232023,"author":{"id":"3478213283465426","authorId":"3478213283465426","name":"美股投资网","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1bfd2cf1aa240d7058795c83d419510","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3478213283465426","idStr":"3478213283465426"},"themes":[],"title":"3艘豪华游轮爆疫情! 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上月批准了重新启动巡航的工作，这是一年多来的首次。根据目前CDC的指导方针，所有的客人——无论是接种过疫苗的还是未接种的——都将被要求“在室内佩戴口罩，除非坐下来进食或饮水。”在上周两艘游轮爆疫后，今天又一艘全员接种疫苗的豪华巨轮沦陷。有关官员表示，&nbsp; &nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RCL\">$皇家加勒比邮轮(RCL)$</a>&nbsp;）国际游轮“海洋奥德赛”号(Odyssey of the Seas)的8名船员被检测出Covid-19呈阳性，船上1400人立遭隔离，因此该游轮将推迟首航。“海洋奥德赛”号的首次航行原定于7月3日，现在定于7月31日。公司首席执行官迈克尔·贝利在一份声明中表示:“在常规检测中，8名船员收到了COVID-19阳性检测结果。” 在8例病例中，6人无症状，2人症状轻微。1400名已接种疫苗的船员，将全部在船上被隔离14天，接受监测。“虽然令人失望，但这是一个正确的决定，对我们的船员和客人的健康和幸福。”但在登船之前，所有客人都被要求在出发前72小时出示COVID-19检测阴性和疫苗接种证明，也就是双保险。该游轮6月4日抵达美国佛州，抵达当天，1400名船员就全体下船，接种了疫苗。不过，到今天为止，距离船员们接种疫苗还没有到14天——这被认为是新冠疫苗完全发挥作用所需的期限。根据CDC的说法，在完全接种疫苗或突破性感染后检测出阳性的人非常罕见。CDC上月表示，在已接种疫苗的1.3亿多人中，至少有10262人出现突破性感染。许多在完全接种疫苗后检测呈阳性的人没有症状。海洋奥德赛号又称“超级量子游轮”，是世界上最大的游轮之一，共有16层甲","text":"仅仅一周的时间， 3艘豪华游轮爆出疫情。尽管全员接种两针疫苗，全员核酸检测阴性，豪华游轮再爆疫情!美国疾病控制与预防中心(CDC) 上月批准了重新启动巡航的工作，这是一年多来的首次。根据目前CDC的指导方针，所有的客人——无论是接种过疫苗的还是未接种的——都将被要求“在室内佩戴口罩，除非坐下来进食或饮水。”在上周两艘游轮爆疫后，今天又一艘全员接种疫苗的豪华巨轮沦陷。有关官员表示， $皇家加勒比邮轮(RCL)$ ）国际游轮“海洋奥德赛”号(Odyssey of the Seas)的8名船员被检测出Covid-19呈阳性，船上1400人立遭隔离，因此该游轮将推迟首航。“海洋奥德赛”号的首次航行原定于7月3日，现在定于7月31日。公司首席执行官迈克尔·贝利在一份声明中表示:“在常规检测中，8名船员收到了COVID-19阳性检测结果。” 在8例病例中，6人无症状，2人症状轻微。1400名已接种疫苗的船员，将全部在船上被隔离14天，接受监测。“虽然令人失望，但这是一个正确的决定，对我们的船员和客人的健康和幸福。”但在登船之前，所有客人都被要求在出发前72小时出示COVID-19检测阴性和疫苗接种证明，也就是双保险。该游轮6月4日抵达美国佛州，抵达当天，1400名船员就全体下船，接种了疫苗。不过，到今天为止，距离船员们接种疫苗还没有到14天——这被认为是新冠疫苗完全发挥作用所需的期限。根据CDC的说法，在完全接种疫苗或突破性感染后检测出阳性的人非常罕见。CDC上月表示，在已接种疫苗的1.3亿多人中，至少有10262人出现突破性感染。许多在完全接种疫苗后检测呈阳性的人没有症状。海洋奥德赛号又称“超级量子游轮”，是世界上最大的游轮之一，共有16层甲","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9229d50290c95bf2f115e74eddcebdc5","width":"688","height":"386"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0aa0c1e5bb5e4c6d9806f719b3955d6c","width":"688","height":"459"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2779396adacc9b54dfda4bf3bcec0ad","width":"688","height":"387"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162741346","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":523,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":165323804,"gmtCreate":1624097987808,"gmtModify":1634010714893,"author":{"id":"3579141850161287","authorId":"3579141850161287","name":"GoaOn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c41bfb0b74d5d9d2f6a9ec08f3a8cb42","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579141850161287","idStr":"3579141850161287"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/165323804","repostId":"166468562","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":166468562,"gmtCreate":1624023102352,"gmtModify":1624169415314,"author":{"id":"3527667586584720","authorId":"3527667586584720","name":"小虎综合资讯","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667586584720","idStr":"3527667586584720"},"themes":[],"title":"开盘：美股三大指数集体低开，石油股普跌","htmlText":"6月18日，美股三大指数集体低开，道指跌1.09%，纳指跌0.45%，标普500指数跌0.78%。 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正如雅虎金融公司Brian Cheung上周指出的那样，在5月价格以几十年来最快的速度上涨后，长期美债收益率跌至数月以来的地点。上周五收盘时，10年期国债收益率接近1.46%，为3月初以来的最低水平。标准普尔500指数周五也创下历史新高。 在周五发布的客户报告中，凯投宏观的 Franziska Palmas认为，目前，美国通胀不会使股市脱轨，尽管凯投认为通胀压力比美联储的“暂时性”观点所暗示的要强一些。 目前，货币政策和经济周期都对股市有利。Palmas认为，未来几年，这些条件不会发生巨大变化。 Palmas指出，通胀上升的迹象并未引发对货币政策前景的重新评估，这主要是因为美联储一直在强调通胀上升只是暂时的，因此不会对此采取行动。投资者似乎相信这一点，因为他们并未将未来几年更激进的紧缩货币政策price in到当前价格中来。 周三，美联储将宣布最新政策决定，并发布一系列最新的经济预测。经济学家预计，美联储将重申，不考虑近期通胀数据，并在退出资产购买计划时保持谨慎态度。 Palmas还指出，“到目前为止，价格上涨和短缺并未引起投资者对经济复苏的重大担忧，将继续上调标准普尔 500指数未来几年的盈利预测。” 雅虎财经也表示，当前美国经济面临的主要挑战是需求超过供给——很多企业出现了工人短缺，另外很多消费者热衷旅行、买车买房。雅虎财经表示，美国经济仍处于不充分复苏阶段，尽管当前经济面临挑战，但问题更多指向经济向好的趋势。","listText":"6月16日消息，正如投资者所见，通胀正在升温，但华尔街策略师并未对通胀感到担忧，金融市场目前也认可这一观点。 正如雅虎金融公司Brian Cheung上周指出的那样，在5月价格以几十年来最快的速度上涨后，长期美债收益率跌至数月以来的地点。上周五收盘时，10年期国债收益率接近1.46%，为3月初以来的最低水平。标准普尔500指数周五也创下历史新高。 在周五发布的客户报告中，凯投宏观的 Franziska Palmas认为，目前，美国通胀不会使股市脱轨，尽管凯投认为通胀压力比美联储的“暂时性”观点所暗示的要强一些。 目前，货币政策和经济周期都对股市有利。Palmas认为，未来几年，这些条件不会发生巨大变化。 Palmas指出，通胀上升的迹象并未引发对货币政策前景的重新评估，这主要是因为美联储一直在强调通胀上升只是暂时的，因此不会对此采取行动。投资者似乎相信这一点，因为他们并未将未来几年更激进的紧缩货币政策price in到当前价格中来。 周三，美联储将宣布最新政策决定，并发布一系列最新的经济预测。经济学家预计，美联储将重申，不考虑近期通胀数据，并在退出资产购买计划时保持谨慎态度。 Palmas还指出，“到目前为止，价格上涨和短缺并未引起投资者对经济复苏的重大担忧，将继续上调标准普尔 500指数未来几年的盈利预测。” 雅虎财经也表示，当前美国经济面临的主要挑战是需求超过供给——很多企业出现了工人短缺，另外很多消费者热衷旅行、买车买房。雅虎财经表示，美国经济仍处于不充分复苏阶段，尽管当前经济面临挑战，但问题更多指向经济向好的趋势。","text":"6月16日消息，正如投资者所见，通胀正在升温，但华尔街策略师并未对通胀感到担忧，金融市场目前也认可这一观点。 正如雅虎金融公司Brian Cheung上周指出的那样，在5月价格以几十年来最快的速度上涨后，长期美债收益率跌至数月以来的地点。上周五收盘时，10年期国债收益率接近1.46%，为3月初以来的最低水平。标准普尔500指数周五也创下历史新高。 在周五发布的客户报告中，凯投宏观的 Franziska Palmas认为，目前，美国通胀不会使股市脱轨，尽管凯投认为通胀压力比美联储的“暂时性”观点所暗示的要强一些。 目前，货币政策和经济周期都对股市有利。Palmas认为，未来几年，这些条件不会发生巨大变化。 Palmas指出，通胀上升的迹象并未引发对货币政策前景的重新评估，这主要是因为美联储一直在强调通胀上升只是暂时的，因此不会对此采取行动。投资者似乎相信这一点，因为他们并未将未来几年更激进的紧缩货币政策price in到当前价格中来。 周三，美联储将宣布最新政策决定，并发布一系列最新的经济预测。经济学家预计，美联储将重申，不考虑近期通胀数据，并在退出资产购买计划时保持谨慎态度。 Palmas还指出，“到目前为止，价格上涨和短缺并未引起投资者对经济复苏的重大担忧，将继续上调标准普尔 500指数未来几年的盈利预测。” 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戴雨森认为，从一级市场到二级市场，是一个从”因为相信，所以看见“，到”因为看见，所以相信“的过程。但是二级市场要赚大钱，其实也要”因为相信，所以看见“。 在戴雨森看来，一级市场和二级市场各有利弊。“对于一级市场来讲，第一，可以看到更早更新的趋势和机会。第二，流动性其实大部分投资人的敌人。第三，长期持有强迫深度思考。第三，可以有和公司和创始人一起成长的参与感。这是一级市场的好处。二级市场方面，也有很多优势，第一，进出自由，没有入场和交易门槛。第二，不是最好的时机选择可以不做。第三，是市场足够有效。” 长期专注科技投资的戴雨森用VR和特斯拉的例子来诠释“跨越鸿沟”的投资理念。戴雨森认为，VR是掉进鸿沟的例子。因为VR一出来的时候很火，大家都或多或少地去尝试，而现在很多人的VR设备已经闲置，这个技术没有带来足够好的体验或者足够强的价值，但体验又还有诸多不便之处。当然，现在随着Oculus&nbsp;Quest&nbsp;2等产品易用性和体验都在不断提高，VR有爬出鸿沟的趋势。 而特斯拉是跨越鸿沟的典型案例，特斯拉通过电动⻋的高性能+革命**互体验+自动辅助驾驶能力，吸引Innovator和Early&nbsp;Adopter。又通过电池技术升级和超级充电站网络，解决了Early&nbsp;Majority最担心的续航问题。此外，GigaFactory和生产工艺创新带来的规模效应导致价格持续下降，增加对Early&nbsp;Majority的吸引力。“如果特斯拉以后的自动驾驶达到了L4的级别，人不需要自己开车了，这可能就是从early&nbsp;majority到late&nbsp;majority的转变时机。“戴雨","listText":"6月12日，知名互联网券商老虎证券举办七周年开放日。真格基金合伙人戴雨森受邀参会并发表题为《因为相信、所以看见&nbsp;VS&nbsp;因为看见、所以相信》的演讲。 戴雨森认为，从一级市场到二级市场，是一个从”因为相信，所以看见“，到”因为看见，所以相信“的过程。但是二级市场要赚大钱，其实也要”因为相信，所以看见“。 在戴雨森看来，一级市场和二级市场各有利弊。“对于一级市场来讲，第一，可以看到更早更新的趋势和机会。第二，流动性其实大部分投资人的敌人。第三，长期持有强迫深度思考。第三，可以有和公司和创始人一起成长的参与感。这是一级市场的好处。二级市场方面，也有很多优势，第一，进出自由，没有入场和交易门槛。第二，不是最好的时机选择可以不做。第三，是市场足够有效。” 长期专注科技投资的戴雨森用VR和特斯拉的例子来诠释“跨越鸿沟”的投资理念。戴雨森认为，VR是掉进鸿沟的例子。因为VR一出来的时候很火，大家都或多或少地去尝试，而现在很多人的VR设备已经闲置，这个技术没有带来足够好的体验或者足够强的价值，但体验又还有诸多不便之处。当然，现在随着Oculus&nbsp;Quest&nbsp;2等产品易用性和体验都在不断提高，VR有爬出鸿沟的趋势。 而特斯拉是跨越鸿沟的典型案例，特斯拉通过电动⻋的高性能+革命**互体验+自动辅助驾驶能力，吸引Innovator和Early&nbsp;Adopter。又通过电池技术升级和超级充电站网络，解决了Early&nbsp;Majority最担心的续航问题。此外，GigaFactory和生产工艺创新带来的规模效应导致价格持续下降，增加对Early&nbsp;Majority的吸引力。“如果特斯拉以后的自动驾驶达到了L4的级别，人不需要自己开车了，这可能就是从early&nbsp;majority到late&nbsp;majority的转变时机。“戴雨","text":"6月12日，知名互联网券商老虎证券举办七周年开放日。真格基金合伙人戴雨森受邀参会并发表题为《因为相信、所以看见 VS 因为看见、所以相信》的演讲。 戴雨森认为，从一级市场到二级市场，是一个从”因为相信，所以看见“，到”因为看见，所以相信“的过程。但是二级市场要赚大钱，其实也要”因为相信，所以看见“。 在戴雨森看来，一级市场和二级市场各有利弊。“对于一级市场来讲，第一，可以看到更早更新的趋势和机会。第二，流动性其实大部分投资人的敌人。第三，长期持有强迫深度思考。第三，可以有和公司和创始人一起成长的参与感。这是一级市场的好处。二级市场方面，也有很多优势，第一，进出自由，没有入场和交易门槛。第二，不是最好的时机选择可以不做。第三，是市场足够有效。” 长期专注科技投资的戴雨森用VR和特斯拉的例子来诠释“跨越鸿沟”的投资理念。戴雨森认为，VR是掉进鸿沟的例子。因为VR一出来的时候很火，大家都或多或少地去尝试，而现在很多人的VR设备已经闲置，这个技术没有带来足够好的体验或者足够强的价值，但体验又还有诸多不便之处。当然，现在随着Oculus Quest 2等产品易用性和体验都在不断提高，VR有爬出鸿沟的趋势。 而特斯拉是跨越鸿沟的典型案例，特斯拉通过电动⻋的高性能+革命**互体验+自动辅助驾驶能力，吸引Innovator和Early Adopter。又通过电池技术升级和超级充电站网络，解决了Early Majority最担心的续航问题。此外，GigaFactory和生产工艺创新带来的规模效应导致价格持续下降，增加对Early Majority的吸引力。“如果特斯拉以后的自动驾驶达到了L4的级别，人不需要自己开车了，这可能就是从early majority到late majority的转变时机。“戴雨","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ee63b1cc842229e7a27af47d0242872","width":"1370","height":"398"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186204860","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":712,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":607611037,"gmtCreate":1639532221838,"gmtModify":1639532221964,"author":{"id":"3579141850161287","authorId":"3579141850161287","name":"GoaOn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c41bfb0b74d5d9d2f6a9ec08f3a8cb42","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579141850161287","idStr":"3579141850161287"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AWX.SI\">$AEM HOLDINGS LTD(AWX.SI)$</a>Director James Toh sold some shares, worth 1.8mil SGD.","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AWX.SI\">$AEM HOLDINGS LTD(AWX.SI)$</a>Director James Toh sold some shares, worth 1.8mil SGD.","text":"$AEM HOLDINGS LTD(AWX.SI)$Director James Toh sold some shares, worth 1.8mil SGD.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607611037","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2897,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":371880480,"gmtCreate":1618926773240,"gmtModify":1634289851242,"author":{"id":"3579141850161287","authorId":"3579141850161287","name":"GoaOn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c41bfb0b74d5d9d2f6a9ec08f3a8cb42","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579141850161287","idStr":"3579141850161287"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bullish on&nbsp;AMD","listText":"Bullish on&nbsp;AMD","text":"Bullish on AMD","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/371880480","repostId":"2128849448","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":663,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":357545521,"gmtCreate":1617286981163,"gmtModify":1634521594806,"author":{"id":"3579141850161287","authorId":"3579141850161287","name":"GoaOn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c41bfb0b74d5d9d2f6a9ec08f3a8cb42","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579141850161287","idStr":"3579141850161287"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/357545521","repostId":"1154852748","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":308,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":158133748,"gmtCreate":1625134972184,"gmtModify":1633944423352,"author":{"id":"3579141850161287","authorId":"3579141850161287","name":"GoaOn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c41bfb0b74d5d9d2f6a9ec08f3a8cb42","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579141850161287","idStr":"3579141850161287"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/158133748","repostId":"1113357649","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1113357649","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625133776,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1113357649?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-01 18:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon: Undervalued With Potential Upside Of 25%<blockquote>亚马逊：被低估，潜在上涨空间为25%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113357649","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Amazon is a unique and growing company that uses its disruptive platform to disrupt any new business it enters.I initiate Amazon with a bullish rating and a fair value of $3576/share .The company's improving top line and bottom line performance  suggests that the stock is currently undervalued by 3.9%.Amazon, a $1.74 trillion company. This is the current market capitalization  of the company and this implies that it is currently 15.18% away from being a $2 trillion company, not bad no?I initiate","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Amazon is a unique and growing company that uses its disruptive platform to disrupt any new business it enters.</li>  <li>I initiate Amazon with a bullish rating and a fair value of $3576/share (vs. the current price of $3443/share).</li>  <li>The company's improving top line and bottom line performance (which is expected to continue) suggests that the stock is currently undervalued by 3.9%.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51ce52baed5afae04a384059297465d3\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Daria Nipot/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>亚马逊是一家独特且不断发展的公司，它利用其颠覆性平台来颠覆其进入的任何新业务。</li><li>我对亚马逊的评级为看涨，公允价值为3576美元/股（当前价格为3443美元/股）。</li><li>该公司营收和利润业绩的改善（预计将持续下去）表明该股目前被低估了3.9%。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Daria Nipot/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Company Overview</b></p><p><blockquote><b>公司概况</b></blockquote></p><p> Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), a $1.74 trillion company. This is the current market capitalization (as of 06/29/2021) of the company and this implies that it is currently 15.18% away from being a $2 trillion company, not bad no?</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊（纳斯达克股票代码：AMZN），一家市值1.74万亿美元的公司。这是该公司目前的市值（截至2021年6月29日），这意味着它目前距离成为2万亿美元的公司还有15.18%的距离，还不错吧？</blockquote></p><p> Amazon is a unique and growing company that uses its disruptive platform to disrupt any new business it enters. For example, when Amazon announced the acquisition of Whole Foods, Walmart(NYSE:WMT), Kroger(NYSE:KR), Target(NYSE:TGT)took a&nbsp;nice hit&nbsp;in market value. I believe that the company will be able to keep delivering strong top line growth and continued growth in margins, fueled not only by the company's current business expansion but also by entering into new markets and new businesses.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊是一家独特且不断发展的公司，它利用其颠覆性平台来颠覆其进入的任何新业务。例如，当亚马逊宣布收购全食超市时，沃尔玛（纽约证券交易所代码：WMT）、克罗格（纽约证券交易所代码：KR）、塔吉特（纽约证券交易所代码：TGT）的市值遭受了巨大打击。我相信，公司将能够继续实现强劲的营收增长和利润率的持续增长，这不仅得益于公司当前的业务扩张，还得益于进入新市场和新业务。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Company Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>公司分析</b></blockquote></p><p> I initiate Amazon with a bullish rating and a fair value of $3576/share (vs. the current price of $3443/share). The FV is an algorithm-adjusted fair value (the algorithm takes into account fundamental and technical factors, such as DCF FV, momentum, etc.) and it implies that the stock is undervalued by 3.9%.</p><p><blockquote>我对亚马逊的评级为看涨，公允价值为3576美元/股（当前价格为3443美元/股）。FV是算法调整后的公允价值（算法考虑了基本面和技术因素，如DCF FV、动量等。）它意味着股票被低估了3.9%。</blockquote></p><p> To compute the DCF FV, I used the trailing twelve-month numbers and I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&amp;D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. As&nbsp;with Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL), I don't believe that Amazon's R&amp;D is an operating expense, and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&amp;D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).</p><p><blockquote>为了计算DCF FV，我使用了过去12个月的数据，并且我还重述了财务数据，因为我将可摊销期限为3年的研发费用资本化。与苹果（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）一样，我不认为亚马逊的研发是一项运营费用，因此，我将其视为资本支出。考虑到研发，以下指标已被重述（所有数字均以百万美元为单位）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb427d462596db1e1cb1ffc99acc90e4\" tg-width=\"571\" tg-height=\"240\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Capitalizing on R&amp;D expenses, we have now a more clear picture of the company (i.e. the restated operating margin is now 9.03% TTM vs the non-restated operating margin is 6.63% TTM).</p><p><blockquote>利用研发费用，我们现在对公司有了更清晰的了解（即重述营业利润率现在为9.03%TTM，而非重述营业利润率为6.63%TTM）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Discounted Cash Flow Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>折现现金流量模型</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们转向贴现现金流估值部分。下面，你可以看到我所做的相对假设的结果。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e215b21ca0b3be5a5e0e7b62e36fb5f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"268\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In my DCF model, I assume a revenue growth for the Y1 of 21.2%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 15% and I assume a terminal year growth rate of 1.48% (or the current yield on 10Y Treasury). The decision of using the current and not expected yield is due to the willingness to remain market neutral (perhaps you can use&nbsp;Goldman Sachs expectations&nbsp;of 1.9%). The current assumptions lead to revenues of $1,253,844 million in Y10.</p><p><blockquote>在我的DCF模型中，我假设Y1的收入增长率为21.2%，Y2-Y5的复合年增长率为15%，并假设最终年增长率为1.48%（或10年期国债的当前收益率）。使用当前而非预期收益率的决定是出于保持市场中性的意愿（或许可以使用高盛1.9%的预期）。目前的假设导致Y10的收入为12,538.44亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Along the road, I also assume an improving outlook for operating margins with the target operating margin of 13.2% (vs current restated operating margin of 9.03%). If the company will be able to meet this target, it will result in operating margins in Y10 of $163,097 million.</p><p><blockquote>在此过程中，我还假设营业利润率前景有所改善，目标营业利润率为13.2%（当前重述营业利润率为9.03%）。如果公司能够实现这一目标，2010年的营业利润率将达到1630.97亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, in doing my estimates, I used a WACC of 5.75% and a sales to capital ratio (or how much the company is going to reinvest to keep its business growing) of 2.95.</p><p><blockquote>最后，在进行估计时，我使用了5.75%的WACC和2.95的销售资本比率（或公司将进行多少再投资以保持业务增长）。</blockquote></p><p> By putting it together, I obtain a DCF value of $3328/share.</p><p><blockquote>通过将它们放在一起，我获得了3328美元/股的DCF值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Monte Carlo Simulation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蒙特卡罗模拟</b></blockquote></p><p> Rather than showing you only my point estimates, which may be right but also may be wrong, let's use probability distributions for inputs. Simulations allow us to assess the impact of continuous risk (e.g., changes in operating margins). In particular, I would like to focus on what I consider the main inputs of interest to get a bigger picture of the risk in the company. Those inputs are:</p><p><blockquote>与其只向您展示我的点估计，这可能是正确的，也可能是错误的，让我们使用概率分布作为输入。模拟使我们能够评估持续风险的影响（例如，营业利润率的变化）。特别是，我想重点关注我认为感兴趣的主要输入，以更好地了解公司的风险。这些输入是：</blockquote></p><p> <i>1. Revenue Growth:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>1、营收增长：</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In my DCF analysis, I assumed an expected CAGR Y2-Y5 of 15% with lower rates going forward. This assumption lead to revenues in Y10 of $1,253,844 million. While it is a reasonable assumption, Amazon is full of surprises, and it may deliver a top line growth well above my expectations. In the latter, I see a possible scenario with a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 24%, resulting in Y10 revenues of $1,989,952 million. However, we all know that regulators represent a big risk for the company. According to&nbsp;WSJ sources, if the \"giant-tech bill\" will pass, the company may be forced to either split into two companies or spin off its private-label product businesses. This represents a big risk that may slow down Amazon's growth, which could translate into a growth rate of 6% (resulting in Y10 revenues of $764,723 million). To sum up, I will assume a uniform distribution with a maximum of 24% and a minimum of 6%. The results are displayed below (this simulation and the next one have been performed 10,000 times).</p><p><blockquote>在我的DCF分析中，我假设Y2-Y5的预期复合年增长率为15%，未来利率较低。这一假设导致2010年的收入为125,384.4亿美元。虽然这是一个合理的假设，但亚马逊充满了惊喜，它可能会实现远高于我预期的营收增长。在后者中，我认为CAGR Y2-Y5为24%，导致Y10收入为1,9899.52亿美元。然而，我们都知道监管机构对公司来说是一个很大的风险。据《华尔街日报》消息人士透露，如果“巨人科技法案”获得通过，该公司可能会被迫拆分为两家公司或剥离其自有品牌产品业务。这是一个很大的风险，可能会减缓亚马逊的增长，这可能会转化为6%的增长率（导致Y10收入为7647.23亿美元）。综上所述，我将假设最大24%，最小6%的均匀分布。结果如下所示（该模拟和下一个模拟已经执行了10,000次）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/893dff753c8ca210759feb31b3966a5c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"235\"><span>Source:Author's estimates</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <i>2. Operating Margin</i>:</p><p><blockquote><i>2.营业利润率</i>：</blockquote></p><p> Currently, Amazon has a restated operating margin of 9.03% TTM (vs not restated EBIT margin of 6.83%). In my DCF, I assumed a target operating margin of 13.2%. While this represents my most likely scenario for the company, I cannot close my eyes to the fact that, even if the company is improving its margins, it is following a very slow climb. Below, I display the non-restated EBIT margin for the last 5 years.</p><p><blockquote>目前，亚马逊的TTM重述营业利润率为9.03%（未重述息税前利润率为6.83%）。在我的DCF中，我假设目标营业利润率为13.2%。虽然这代表了我对该公司最有可能的情况，但我不能忽视这样一个事实：即使该公司的利润率正在提高，但它的攀升速度也非常缓慢。下面，我显示了过去5年未经重述的息税前利润率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d66fcb05f4254b15de278f016121ffa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"221\"><span>Source:SeekingAlpha.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SeekingAlpha.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, as I stated at the beginning, Amazon is a disruptive company with the ability to do extraordinary things. For instance, AWS presents a current operating margin of 30% TTM and a revenue growth rate of 29.53% in 2020. A trend which is expected to continue, driven by improving outlook and with new partners joining the party. The last to join the party are Ferrari(NYSE:RACE)and Swisscom(OTCPK:SWZCF)who have chosen AWS as their&nbsp;preferred cloud partner.</p><p><blockquote>不过，正如我开头所说，亚马逊是一家颠覆性的公司，有能力做非凡的事情。例如，AWS目前的营业利润率为30%TTM，2020年收入增长率为29.53%。由于前景改善以及有新伙伴加入党，这一趋势有望持续。最后一个加入派对的是法拉利（纽约证券交易所代码：RACE）和瑞士电信（OTCPK代码：SWZCF），他们选择AWS作为首选的云合作伙伴。</blockquote></p><p> In 2020,according to Gartner, AWS generated revenue 2 times bigger than Microsoft(NASDAQ:MSFT). As stated by Gartner:</p><p><blockquote>根据Gartner的数据，2020年AWS的收入是微软（纳斯达克：MSFT）的2倍。如Gartner所述：</blockquote></p><p>   <i>The worldwide</i>&nbsp;  <i>infrastructure as a service(IaaS) market grew 40.7% in 2020 to total $64.3 billion, up from $45.7 billion in 2019, according to Gartner, Inc. Amazon retained the No. 1 position in the IaaS market in 2020, followed by Microsoft, Alibaba, Google and Huawei... Amazon continued to lead the worldwide IaaS market with $26.2 billion of revenue in 2020 and 41% market share.</i>  <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac00a17cbbd930ad6464a63f6d4f98eb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\"><span>Source:Gartner.com</span></p><p><blockquote><i>世界范围</i> <i>根据Gartner，Inc.的数据，基础设施即服务（IaaS）市场在2020年增长了40.7%，达到643亿美元，高于2019年的457亿美元。亚马逊在2020年保持了IaaS市场的第一名，其次是微软、阿里巴巴-SW、谷歌和华为...亚马逊在2020年以262亿美元的收入和41%的市场份额继续引领全球IaaS市场。</i><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Gartner.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Finally, to account for my concerns and beliefs, I will assume a triangular distribution with the following limits: the likeliest target operating margin of 13.2%, a maximum of 18.4%, and a minimum of 8% (close to the current company's EBIT margin). The results are displayed below.</p><p><blockquote>最后，为了说明我的担忧和信念，我将假设一个三角形分布，并有以下限制：最可能的目标营业利润率为13.2%，最高为18.4%，最低为8%（接近当前公司的息税前利润率）。结果如下所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/054e2db392be500768de741516186013\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"237\"><span>Source:Author's estimates</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <i>3. Cost of Capital:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>3.资金成本：</i></blockquote></p><p> The last input of interest is the cost of capital. In doing my analysis, I estimated a cost of capital of 5.8% (with the current 10Y rate of 1.48 and an implied ERP of 4.54%). However, I may be wrong due to sector risk estimates or changes in the business mix (or both). To account for the possibility that I made some mistakes along the road, I will rely on a lognormal distribution with the most likely scenario of 5.8%. The results of the simulation are displayed below.</p><p><blockquote>利息的最后一个输入是资本成本。在进行分析时，我估计资本成本为5.8%（当前10年利率为1.48，隐含ERP为4.54%）。然而，由于行业风险估计或业务组合的变化（或两者兼而有之），我可能是错误的。为了说明我在这条路上犯了一些错误的可能性，我将依赖对数正态分布，最有可能的情况是5.8%。模拟结果如下所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7d51740fa35eb9aedbc58c4c49d96eb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"235\"><span>Source:Author's estimates</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By putting all of this together, the simulations return the following results.</p><p><blockquote>通过将所有这些放在一起，模拟返回以下结果。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/139c89300706eab1e37dd1c992286d31\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"222\"><span>Source:Author's estimates</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For completeness, I also display below the relative and cumulative frequency of the simulation.</p><p><blockquote>为了完整起见，我还在下面显示了模拟的相对频率和累积频率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af7a908e21b8678a775a3e1742161a7d\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"644\"><span>Source:Author's estimates</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By looking at the results, we can see that the 50th percentile or the median is equal to $3274, close to the expected DCF FV of $3328. While the algorithm-adjusted FV of $3576 is the 60th percentile in my simulations (note also the long right tail).</p><p><blockquote>通过查看结果，我们可以看到第50百分位或中位数等于3274美元，接近预期的DCF FV 3328美元。而算法调整后的FV为3576美元，是我模拟中的第60百分位（也请注意右尾长）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Finally, simulation results give us an interesting insight into a potential exit point. I believe that an interesting take profit point may be within the 80th percentile, which implies a potential upside of 24.89%. Why within the 80th percentile? I believe that, after reaching the $2.0 trillion company status, we will see the last climb of euphoria before investors start to take profits.</p><p><blockquote>最后，模拟结果让我们对潜在的退出点有了有趣的了解。我认为一个有趣的止盈点可能在第80百分位内，这意味着24.89%的潜在上涨空间。为什么在第80百分位以内？我相信，在达到2.0万亿美元的公司地位后，我们将看到投资者开始获利了结之前最后一次兴奋的攀升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> Both the algorithm-adjusted fair value and the Monte Carlo simulation suggest and support the bullish rating. The results found suggest that the stock is currently undervalued and that the company has still more room to go. What may drive the price to go higher? Well, there are different factors that may drive it. One of those is for sure corporate news. For instance, the company may introduce new products or announce a stock split (For the latter, I think this is unlikely, at least not now). However, don't forget also the other side, the risks. There are many risks associated with being invested in the company, one of those is represented by antitrust and regulators.</p><p><blockquote>算法调整后的公允价值和蒙特卡罗模拟都建议并支持看涨评级。结果表明，该股目前被低估，该公司仍有更大的发展空间。什么可能会推动价格走高？嗯，有不同的因素可能会驱动它。其中之一肯定是企业新闻。例如，公司可能会推出新产品或宣布股票分割（对于后者，我认为这不太可能，至少现在不太可能）。然而，也不要忘记另一面，风险。投资该公司存在许多风险，其中之一就是反垄断和监管机构。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: Undervalued With Potential Upside Of 25%<blockquote>亚马逊：被低估，潜在上涨空间为25%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: Undervalued With Potential Upside Of 25%<blockquote>亚马逊：被低估，潜在上涨空间为25%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-01 18:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Amazon is a unique and growing company that uses its disruptive platform to disrupt any new business it enters.</li>  <li>I initiate Amazon with a bullish rating and a fair value of $3576/share (vs. the current price of $3443/share).</li>  <li>The company's improving top line and bottom line performance (which is expected to continue) suggests that the stock is currently undervalued by 3.9%.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51ce52baed5afae04a384059297465d3\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Daria Nipot/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>亚马逊是一家独特且不断发展的公司，它利用其颠覆性平台来颠覆其进入的任何新业务。</li><li>我对亚马逊的评级为看涨，公允价值为3576美元/股（当前价格为3443美元/股）。</li><li>该公司营收和利润业绩的改善（预计将持续下去）表明该股目前被低估了3.9%。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Daria Nipot/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Company Overview</b></p><p><blockquote><b>公司概况</b></blockquote></p><p> Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), a $1.74 trillion company. This is the current market capitalization (as of 06/29/2021) of the company and this implies that it is currently 15.18% away from being a $2 trillion company, not bad no?</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊（纳斯达克股票代码：AMZN），一家市值1.74万亿美元的公司。这是该公司目前的市值（截至2021年6月29日），这意味着它目前距离成为2万亿美元的公司还有15.18%的距离，还不错吧？</blockquote></p><p> Amazon is a unique and growing company that uses its disruptive platform to disrupt any new business it enters. For example, when Amazon announced the acquisition of Whole Foods, Walmart(NYSE:WMT), Kroger(NYSE:KR), Target(NYSE:TGT)took a&nbsp;nice hit&nbsp;in market value. I believe that the company will be able to keep delivering strong top line growth and continued growth in margins, fueled not only by the company's current business expansion but also by entering into new markets and new businesses.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊是一家独特且不断发展的公司，它利用其颠覆性平台来颠覆其进入的任何新业务。例如，当亚马逊宣布收购全食超市时，沃尔玛（纽约证券交易所代码：WMT）、克罗格（纽约证券交易所代码：KR）、塔吉特（纽约证券交易所代码：TGT）的市值遭受了巨大打击。我相信，公司将能够继续实现强劲的营收增长和利润率的持续增长，这不仅得益于公司当前的业务扩张，还得益于进入新市场和新业务。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Company Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>公司分析</b></blockquote></p><p> I initiate Amazon with a bullish rating and a fair value of $3576/share (vs. the current price of $3443/share). The FV is an algorithm-adjusted fair value (the algorithm takes into account fundamental and technical factors, such as DCF FV, momentum, etc.) and it implies that the stock is undervalued by 3.9%.</p><p><blockquote>我对亚马逊的评级为看涨，公允价值为3576美元/股（当前价格为3443美元/股）。FV是算法调整后的公允价值（算法考虑了基本面和技术因素，如DCF FV、动量等。）它意味着股票被低估了3.9%。</blockquote></p><p> To compute the DCF FV, I used the trailing twelve-month numbers and I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&amp;D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. As&nbsp;with Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL), I don't believe that Amazon's R&amp;D is an operating expense, and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&amp;D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).</p><p><blockquote>为了计算DCF FV，我使用了过去12个月的数据，并且我还重述了财务数据，因为我将可摊销期限为3年的研发费用资本化。与苹果（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）一样，我不认为亚马逊的研发是一项运营费用，因此，我将其视为资本支出。考虑到研发，以下指标已被重述（所有数字均以百万美元为单位）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb427d462596db1e1cb1ffc99acc90e4\" tg-width=\"571\" tg-height=\"240\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Capitalizing on R&amp;D expenses, we have now a more clear picture of the company (i.e. the restated operating margin is now 9.03% TTM vs the non-restated operating margin is 6.63% TTM).</p><p><blockquote>利用研发费用，我们现在对公司有了更清晰的了解（即重述营业利润率现在为9.03%TTM，而非重述营业利润率为6.63%TTM）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Discounted Cash Flow Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>折现现金流量模型</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们转向贴现现金流估值部分。下面，你可以看到我所做的相对假设的结果。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e215b21ca0b3be5a5e0e7b62e36fb5f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"268\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In my DCF model, I assume a revenue growth for the Y1 of 21.2%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 15% and I assume a terminal year growth rate of 1.48% (or the current yield on 10Y Treasury). The decision of using the current and not expected yield is due to the willingness to remain market neutral (perhaps you can use&nbsp;Goldman Sachs expectations&nbsp;of 1.9%). The current assumptions lead to revenues of $1,253,844 million in Y10.</p><p><blockquote>在我的DCF模型中，我假设Y1的收入增长率为21.2%，Y2-Y5的复合年增长率为15%，并假设最终年增长率为1.48%（或10年期国债的当前收益率）。使用当前而非预期收益率的决定是出于保持市场中性的意愿（或许可以使用高盛1.9%的预期）。目前的假设导致Y10的收入为12,538.44亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Along the road, I also assume an improving outlook for operating margins with the target operating margin of 13.2% (vs current restated operating margin of 9.03%). If the company will be able to meet this target, it will result in operating margins in Y10 of $163,097 million.</p><p><blockquote>在此过程中，我还假设营业利润率前景有所改善，目标营业利润率为13.2%（当前重述营业利润率为9.03%）。如果公司能够实现这一目标，2010年的营业利润率将达到1630.97亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, in doing my estimates, I used a WACC of 5.75% and a sales to capital ratio (or how much the company is going to reinvest to keep its business growing) of 2.95.</p><p><blockquote>最后，在进行估计时，我使用了5.75%的WACC和2.95的销售资本比率（或公司将进行多少再投资以保持业务增长）。</blockquote></p><p> By putting it together, I obtain a DCF value of $3328/share.</p><p><blockquote>通过将它们放在一起，我获得了3328美元/股的DCF值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Monte Carlo Simulation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蒙特卡罗模拟</b></blockquote></p><p> Rather than showing you only my point estimates, which may be right but also may be wrong, let's use probability distributions for inputs. Simulations allow us to assess the impact of continuous risk (e.g., changes in operating margins). In particular, I would like to focus on what I consider the main inputs of interest to get a bigger picture of the risk in the company. Those inputs are:</p><p><blockquote>与其只向您展示我的点估计，这可能是正确的，也可能是错误的，让我们使用概率分布作为输入。模拟使我们能够评估持续风险的影响（例如，营业利润率的变化）。特别是，我想重点关注我认为感兴趣的主要输入，以更好地了解公司的风险。这些输入是：</blockquote></p><p> <i>1. Revenue Growth:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>1、营收增长：</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In my DCF analysis, I assumed an expected CAGR Y2-Y5 of 15% with lower rates going forward. This assumption lead to revenues in Y10 of $1,253,844 million. While it is a reasonable assumption, Amazon is full of surprises, and it may deliver a top line growth well above my expectations. In the latter, I see a possible scenario with a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 24%, resulting in Y10 revenues of $1,989,952 million. However, we all know that regulators represent a big risk for the company. According to&nbsp;WSJ sources, if the \"giant-tech bill\" will pass, the company may be forced to either split into two companies or spin off its private-label product businesses. This represents a big risk that may slow down Amazon's growth, which could translate into a growth rate of 6% (resulting in Y10 revenues of $764,723 million). To sum up, I will assume a uniform distribution with a maximum of 24% and a minimum of 6%. The results are displayed below (this simulation and the next one have been performed 10,000 times).</p><p><blockquote>在我的DCF分析中，我假设Y2-Y5的预期复合年增长率为15%，未来利率较低。这一假设导致2010年的收入为125,384.4亿美元。虽然这是一个合理的假设，但亚马逊充满了惊喜，它可能会实现远高于我预期的营收增长。在后者中，我认为CAGR Y2-Y5为24%，导致Y10收入为1,9899.52亿美元。然而，我们都知道监管机构对公司来说是一个很大的风险。据《华尔街日报》消息人士透露，如果“巨人科技法案”获得通过，该公司可能会被迫拆分为两家公司或剥离其自有品牌产品业务。这是一个很大的风险，可能会减缓亚马逊的增长，这可能会转化为6%的增长率（导致Y10收入为7647.23亿美元）。综上所述，我将假设最大24%，最小6%的均匀分布。结果如下所示（该模拟和下一个模拟已经执行了10,000次）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/893dff753c8ca210759feb31b3966a5c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"235\"><span>Source:Author's estimates</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <i>2. Operating Margin</i>:</p><p><blockquote><i>2.营业利润率</i>：</blockquote></p><p> Currently, Amazon has a restated operating margin of 9.03% TTM (vs not restated EBIT margin of 6.83%). In my DCF, I assumed a target operating margin of 13.2%. While this represents my most likely scenario for the company, I cannot close my eyes to the fact that, even if the company is improving its margins, it is following a very slow climb. Below, I display the non-restated EBIT margin for the last 5 years.</p><p><blockquote>目前，亚马逊的TTM重述营业利润率为9.03%（未重述息税前利润率为6.83%）。在我的DCF中，我假设目标营业利润率为13.2%。虽然这代表了我对该公司最有可能的情况，但我不能忽视这样一个事实：即使该公司的利润率正在提高，但它的攀升速度也非常缓慢。下面，我显示了过去5年未经重述的息税前利润率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d66fcb05f4254b15de278f016121ffa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"221\"><span>Source:SeekingAlpha.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SeekingAlpha.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, as I stated at the beginning, Amazon is a disruptive company with the ability to do extraordinary things. For instance, AWS presents a current operating margin of 30% TTM and a revenue growth rate of 29.53% in 2020. A trend which is expected to continue, driven by improving outlook and with new partners joining the party. The last to join the party are Ferrari(NYSE:RACE)and Swisscom(OTCPK:SWZCF)who have chosen AWS as their&nbsp;preferred cloud partner.</p><p><blockquote>不过，正如我开头所说，亚马逊是一家颠覆性的公司，有能力做非凡的事情。例如，AWS目前的营业利润率为30%TTM，2020年收入增长率为29.53%。由于前景改善以及有新伙伴加入党，这一趋势有望持续。最后一个加入派对的是法拉利（纽约证券交易所代码：RACE）和瑞士电信（OTCPK代码：SWZCF），他们选择AWS作为首选的云合作伙伴。</blockquote></p><p> In 2020,according to Gartner, AWS generated revenue 2 times bigger than Microsoft(NASDAQ:MSFT). As stated by Gartner:</p><p><blockquote>根据Gartner的数据，2020年AWS的收入是微软（纳斯达克：MSFT）的2倍。如Gartner所述：</blockquote></p><p>   <i>The worldwide</i>&nbsp;  <i>infrastructure as a service(IaaS) market grew 40.7% in 2020 to total $64.3 billion, up from $45.7 billion in 2019, according to Gartner, Inc. Amazon retained the No. 1 position in the IaaS market in 2020, followed by Microsoft, Alibaba, Google and Huawei... Amazon continued to lead the worldwide IaaS market with $26.2 billion of revenue in 2020 and 41% market share.</i>  <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac00a17cbbd930ad6464a63f6d4f98eb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\"><span>Source:Gartner.com</span></p><p><blockquote><i>世界范围</i> <i>根据Gartner，Inc.的数据，基础设施即服务（IaaS）市场在2020年增长了40.7%，达到643亿美元，高于2019年的457亿美元。亚马逊在2020年保持了IaaS市场的第一名，其次是微软、阿里巴巴-SW、谷歌和华为...亚马逊在2020年以262亿美元的收入和41%的市场份额继续引领全球IaaS市场。</i><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Gartner.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Finally, to account for my concerns and beliefs, I will assume a triangular distribution with the following limits: the likeliest target operating margin of 13.2%, a maximum of 18.4%, and a minimum of 8% (close to the current company's EBIT margin). The results are displayed below.</p><p><blockquote>最后，为了说明我的担忧和信念，我将假设一个三角形分布，并有以下限制：最可能的目标营业利润率为13.2%，最高为18.4%，最低为8%（接近当前公司的息税前利润率）。结果如下所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/054e2db392be500768de741516186013\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"237\"><span>Source:Author's estimates</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <i>3. Cost of Capital:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>3.资金成本：</i></blockquote></p><p> The last input of interest is the cost of capital. In doing my analysis, I estimated a cost of capital of 5.8% (with the current 10Y rate of 1.48 and an implied ERP of 4.54%). However, I may be wrong due to sector risk estimates or changes in the business mix (or both). To account for the possibility that I made some mistakes along the road, I will rely on a lognormal distribution with the most likely scenario of 5.8%. The results of the simulation are displayed below.</p><p><blockquote>利息的最后一个输入是资本成本。在进行分析时，我估计资本成本为5.8%（当前10年利率为1.48，隐含ERP为4.54%）。然而，由于行业风险估计或业务组合的变化（或两者兼而有之），我可能是错误的。为了说明我在这条路上犯了一些错误的可能性，我将依赖对数正态分布，最有可能的情况是5.8%。模拟结果如下所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7d51740fa35eb9aedbc58c4c49d96eb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"235\"><span>Source:Author's estimates</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By putting all of this together, the simulations return the following results.</p><p><blockquote>通过将所有这些放在一起，模拟返回以下结果。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/139c89300706eab1e37dd1c992286d31\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"222\"><span>Source:Author's estimates</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For completeness, I also display below the relative and cumulative frequency of the simulation.</p><p><blockquote>为了完整起见，我还在下面显示了模拟的相对频率和累积频率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af7a908e21b8678a775a3e1742161a7d\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"644\"><span>Source:Author's estimates</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By looking at the results, we can see that the 50th percentile or the median is equal to $3274, close to the expected DCF FV of $3328. While the algorithm-adjusted FV of $3576 is the 60th percentile in my simulations (note also the long right tail).</p><p><blockquote>通过查看结果，我们可以看到第50百分位或中位数等于3274美元，接近预期的DCF FV 3328美元。而算法调整后的FV为3576美元，是我模拟中的第60百分位（也请注意右尾长）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Finally, simulation results give us an interesting insight into a potential exit point. I believe that an interesting take profit point may be within the 80th percentile, which implies a potential upside of 24.89%. Why within the 80th percentile? I believe that, after reaching the $2.0 trillion company status, we will see the last climb of euphoria before investors start to take profits.</p><p><blockquote>最后，模拟结果让我们对潜在的退出点有了有趣的了解。我认为一个有趣的止盈点可能在第80百分位内，这意味着24.89%的潜在上涨空间。为什么在第80百分位以内？我相信，在达到2.0万亿美元的公司地位后，我们将看到投资者开始获利了结之前最后一次兴奋的攀升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> Both the algorithm-adjusted fair value and the Monte Carlo simulation suggest and support the bullish rating. The results found suggest that the stock is currently undervalued and that the company has still more room to go. What may drive the price to go higher? Well, there are different factors that may drive it. One of those is for sure corporate news. For instance, the company may introduce new products or announce a stock split (For the latter, I think this is unlikely, at least not now). However, don't forget also the other side, the risks. There are many risks associated with being invested in the company, one of those is represented by antitrust and regulators.</p><p><blockquote>算法调整后的公允价值和蒙特卡罗模拟都建议并支持看涨评级。结果表明，该股目前被低估，该公司仍有更大的发展空间。什么可能会推动价格走高？嗯，有不同的因素可能会驱动它。其中之一肯定是企业新闻。例如，公司可能会推出新产品或宣布股票分割（对于后者，我认为这不太可能，至少现在不太可能）。然而，也不要忘记另一面，风险。投资该公司存在许多风险，其中之一就是反垄断和监管机构。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437291-amazon-stock-amzn-undervalued-with-potential-upside-of-25-percent\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437291-amazon-stock-amzn-undervalued-with-potential-upside-of-25-percent","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1113357649","content_text":"Summary\n\nAmazon is a unique and growing company that uses its disruptive platform to disrupt any new business it enters.\nI initiate Amazon with a bullish rating and a fair value of $3576/share (vs. the current price of $3443/share).\nThe company's improving top line and bottom line performance (which is expected to continue) suggests that the stock is currently undervalued by 3.9%.\n\nDaria Nipot/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nCompany Overview\nAmazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), a $1.74 trillion company. This is the current market capitalization (as of 06/29/2021) of the company and this implies that it is currently 15.18% away from being a $2 trillion company, not bad no?\nAmazon is a unique and growing company that uses its disruptive platform to disrupt any new business it enters. For example, when Amazon announced the acquisition of Whole Foods, Walmart(NYSE:WMT), Kroger(NYSE:KR), Target(NYSE:TGT)took a nice hit in market value. I believe that the company will be able to keep delivering strong top line growth and continued growth in margins, fueled not only by the company's current business expansion but also by entering into new markets and new businesses.\nCompany Analysis\nI initiate Amazon with a bullish rating and a fair value of $3576/share (vs. the current price of $3443/share). The FV is an algorithm-adjusted fair value (the algorithm takes into account fundamental and technical factors, such as DCF FV, momentum, etc.) and it implies that the stock is undervalued by 3.9%.\nTo compute the DCF FV, I used the trailing twelve-month numbers and I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. As with Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL), I don't believe that Amazon's R&D is an operating expense, and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nCapitalizing on R&D expenses, we have now a more clear picture of the company (i.e. the restated operating margin is now 9.03% TTM vs the non-restated operating margin is 6.63% TTM).\nDiscounted Cash Flow Model\nNow, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nIn my DCF model, I assume a revenue growth for the Y1 of 21.2%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 15% and I assume a terminal year growth rate of 1.48% (or the current yield on 10Y Treasury). The decision of using the current and not expected yield is due to the willingness to remain market neutral (perhaps you can use Goldman Sachs expectations of 1.9%). The current assumptions lead to revenues of $1,253,844 million in Y10.\nAlong the road, I also assume an improving outlook for operating margins with the target operating margin of 13.2% (vs current restated operating margin of 9.03%). If the company will be able to meet this target, it will result in operating margins in Y10 of $163,097 million.\nFinally, in doing my estimates, I used a WACC of 5.75% and a sales to capital ratio (or how much the company is going to reinvest to keep its business growing) of 2.95.\nBy putting it together, I obtain a DCF value of $3328/share.\nMonte Carlo Simulation\nRather than showing you only my point estimates, which may be right but also may be wrong, let's use probability distributions for inputs. Simulations allow us to assess the impact of continuous risk (e.g., changes in operating margins). In particular, I would like to focus on what I consider the main inputs of interest to get a bigger picture of the risk in the company. Those inputs are:\n1. Revenue Growth:\nIn my DCF analysis, I assumed an expected CAGR Y2-Y5 of 15% with lower rates going forward. This assumption lead to revenues in Y10 of $1,253,844 million. While it is a reasonable assumption, Amazon is full of surprises, and it may deliver a top line growth well above my expectations. In the latter, I see a possible scenario with a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 24%, resulting in Y10 revenues of $1,989,952 million. However, we all know that regulators represent a big risk for the company. According to WSJ sources, if the \"giant-tech bill\" will pass, the company may be forced to either split into two companies or spin off its private-label product businesses. This represents a big risk that may slow down Amazon's growth, which could translate into a growth rate of 6% (resulting in Y10 revenues of $764,723 million). To sum up, I will assume a uniform distribution with a maximum of 24% and a minimum of 6%. The results are displayed below (this simulation and the next one have been performed 10,000 times).\nSource:Author's estimates\n2. Operating Margin:\nCurrently, Amazon has a restated operating margin of 9.03% TTM (vs not restated EBIT margin of 6.83%). In my DCF, I assumed a target operating margin of 13.2%. While this represents my most likely scenario for the company, I cannot close my eyes to the fact that, even if the company is improving its margins, it is following a very slow climb. Below, I display the non-restated EBIT margin for the last 5 years.\nSource:SeekingAlpha.com\nHowever, as I stated at the beginning, Amazon is a disruptive company with the ability to do extraordinary things. For instance, AWS presents a current operating margin of 30% TTM and a revenue growth rate of 29.53% in 2020. A trend which is expected to continue, driven by improving outlook and with new partners joining the party. The last to join the party are Ferrari(NYSE:RACE)and Swisscom(OTCPK:SWZCF)who have chosen AWS as their preferred cloud partner.\nIn 2020,according to Gartner, AWS generated revenue 2 times bigger than Microsoft(NASDAQ:MSFT). As stated by Gartner:\n\nThe worldwide \n infrastructure as a service(IaaS) market grew 40.7% in 2020 to total $64.3 billion, up from $45.7 billion in 2019, according to Gartner, Inc. Amazon retained the No. 1 position in the IaaS market in 2020, followed by Microsoft, Alibaba, Google and Huawei... Amazon continued to lead the worldwide IaaS market with $26.2 billion of revenue in 2020 and 41% market share.\n\nSource:Gartner.com\nFinally, to account for my concerns and beliefs, I will assume a triangular distribution with the following limits: the likeliest target operating margin of 13.2%, a maximum of 18.4%, and a minimum of 8% (close to the current company's EBIT margin). The results are displayed below.\nSource:Author's estimates\n3. Cost of Capital:\nThe last input of interest is the cost of capital. In doing my analysis, I estimated a cost of capital of 5.8% (with the current 10Y rate of 1.48 and an implied ERP of 4.54%). However, I may be wrong due to sector risk estimates or changes in the business mix (or both). To account for the possibility that I made some mistakes along the road, I will rely on a lognormal distribution with the most likely scenario of 5.8%. The results of the simulation are displayed below.\nSource:Author's estimates\nBy putting all of this together, the simulations return the following results.\nSource:Author's estimates\nFor completeness, I also display below the relative and cumulative frequency of the simulation.\nSource:Author's estimates\nBy looking at the results, we can see that the 50th percentile or the median is equal to $3274, close to the expected DCF FV of $3328. While the algorithm-adjusted FV of $3576 is the 60th percentile in my simulations (note also the long right tail).\nFinally, simulation results give us an interesting insight into a potential exit point. I believe that an interesting take profit point may be within the 80th percentile, which implies a potential upside of 24.89%. Why within the 80th percentile? I believe that, after reaching the $2.0 trillion company status, we will see the last climb of euphoria before investors start to take profits.\nFinal Thoughts\nBoth the algorithm-adjusted fair value and the Monte Carlo simulation suggest and support the bullish rating. The results found suggest that the stock is currently undervalued and that the company has still more room to go. What may drive the price to go higher? Well, there are different factors that may drive it. One of those is for sure corporate news. For instance, the company may introduce new products or announce a stock split (For the latter, I think this is unlikely, at least not now). However, don't forget also the other side, the risks. There are many risks associated with being invested in the company, one of those is represented by antitrust and regulators.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1593,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":163162784,"gmtCreate":1623863146848,"gmtModify":1634026786690,"author":{"id":"3579141850161287","authorId":"3579141850161287","name":"GoaOn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c41bfb0b74d5d9d2f6a9ec08f3a8cb42","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579141850161287","idStr":"3579141850161287"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/163162784","repostId":"169213146","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":169213146,"gmtCreate":1623837401485,"gmtModify":1623837401485,"author":{"id":"3503452965237041","authorId":"3503452965237041","name":"美股研究社","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a239c7906133df1f3817d0746a8a0ba1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3503452965237041","idStr":"3503452965237041"},"themes":[],"title":"传京东抖音合作将延伸海外，准备携手开拓欧洲市场","htmlText":"美股研究社消息，据美港电讯APP 报道，有媒体报道称，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">$京东(JD)$</a>&nbsp;与抖音的200亿元GMV年框协议已经落地，双方合作模式，或将延伸至海外市场。目前京东和抖音海外版TikTok正在秘密接洽，准备携手开拓欧洲市场。 本文来源：美股研究社，转载请注明版权","listText":"美股研究社消息，据美港电讯APP 报道，有媒体报道称，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">$京东(JD)$</a>&nbsp;与抖音的200亿元GMV年框协议已经落地，双方合作模式，或将延伸至海外市场。目前京东和抖音海外版TikTok正在秘密接洽，准备携手开拓欧洲市场。 本文来源：美股研究社，转载请注明版权","text":"美股研究社消息，据美港电讯APP 报道，有媒体报道称，$京东(JD)$ 与抖音的200亿元GMV年框协议已经落地，双方合作模式，或将延伸至海外市场。目前京东和抖音海外版TikTok正在秘密接洽，准备携手开拓欧洲市场。 本文来源：美股研究社，转载请注明版权","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0e27b1e7b085d49832a53355a51a9bb","width":"998","height":"666"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169213146","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":517,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":375009130,"gmtCreate":1619251256420,"gmtModify":1634287427262,"author":{"id":"3579141850161287","authorId":"3579141850161287","name":"GoaOn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c41bfb0b74d5d9d2f6a9ec08f3a8cb42","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579141850161287","idStr":"3579141850161287"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375009130","repostId":"1150672819","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1150672819","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619190781,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1150672819?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-23 23:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Car Stocks Aren’t Getting Crushed by the Chip Shortage<blockquote>为什么汽车股没有因芯片短缺而崩溃</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150672819","media":"Barrons","summary":"Dreamstime\nWith first quarter results coming in, car and semiconductor companies are commenting on t","content":"<p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd5e5d8436e3b6476fe344f5ede80cd9\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\"><span>Dreamstime</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>梦想时间</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With first quarter results coming in, car and semiconductor companies are commenting on the microchip shortage which is hampering global auto production. The comments, however, don’t appear to be matching up. While chip makers’ comments are setting off alarms, car makers—whose stocks are mostly off to a great start in 2021—are downplaying the problem.</p><p><blockquote>随着第一季度业绩的公布，汽车和半导体公司正在对阻碍全球汽车生产的微芯片短缺发表评论。然而，这些评论似乎并不匹配。虽然芯片制造商的言论引发了警报，但汽车制造商——其股票在2021年大多有一个良好的开端——正在淡化这个问题。</blockquote></p><p> A lack of microchips that make modern cars function has resulted in unplanned downtime for many auto makers. Ford Motor (ticker: F), for instance, said it was extending outages&nbsp;at three assembly plants Thursday.Terrence Curtin, CEO of electrical component supplier&nbsp;TE Connectivity&nbsp;(TEL) told<i>Barron’s</i> this week that roughly 1 million cars weren’t built in the first quarter because of the shortage. That is about 5% of global auto output. And General Motors (GM) called the shortage a billion dollar headwind to 2021 operating profits when the company reported fourth quarter numbers earlier this year.</p><p><blockquote>由于缺乏使现代汽车发挥作用的微芯片，许多汽车制造商出现了计划外停机。例如，福特汽车（股票代码：F）表示，周四将延长三家装配厂的停电时间。电气元件供应商TE Connectivity(TEL)首席执行官Terrence Curtin表示<i>巴伦周刊</i>本周，由于短缺，第一季度约有100万辆汽车没有生产。这约占全球汽车产量的5%。通用汽车(GM)在今年早些时候公布第四季度数据时称，短缺给2021年营业利润带来了10亿美元的阻力。</blockquote></p><p> Auto stocks, however, have been largely unaffected by the issue. GM and Ford shares, for instance, are both up 36% year to date. Parts suppliers TE and BorgWarner (BWA) are up 9% and 28%, respectively. Car dealer Auto Nation (AN) stock is also on fire as well, up about 38% so far in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>然而，汽车股基本上没有受到该问题的影响。例如，通用汽车和福特的股价今年迄今均上涨了36%。零部件供应商TE和博格华纳(BWA)分别上涨9%和28%。汽车经销商Auto Nation(AN)的股票也很火爆，2021年迄今已上涨约38%。</blockquote></p><p> Demand is strong, rebounding from the 2020 pandemic-induced recession. The optimism for higher sales in 2021 and 2022 is trumping any concern about near term disruption. But the disruption might get worse before it gets better and auto investors will have to square that reality with their outlooks as more company report first quarter numbers.</p><p><blockquote>需求强劲，从2020年大流行引发的衰退中反弹。对2021年和2022年销售额增长的乐观情绪压倒了对近期中断的任何担忧。但这种破坏在好转之前可能会变得更糟，随着更多公司公布第一季度数据，汽车投资者将不得不将这一现实与他们的前景相一致。</blockquote></p><p> Ford is set to report earnings April 28. GM follows on May 5. Daimler (DAI.Germany), for its part, reported&nbsp;first quarter numbers Friday. Things still look good. Car sales rose, product mix was favorable and profitability improved. Management doesn’t sound too worried about microchips. “The impact from semiconductor&nbsp;shortage&nbsp;was not very material in the first quarter,” said CFO Harald Wilhelm&nbsp;on an investor call. Second quarter impacts are possible, but “we anticipate to recover part of the lost volumes by the end of the year.”</p><p><blockquote>福特将于4月28日公布财报。通用汽车将于5月5日跟进。戴姆勒(DAI.Germany)周五公布了第一季度数据。事情看起来还是不错的。汽车销量上升，产品组合良好，盈利能力提高。管理层听起来并不太担心微芯片。首席财务官Harald Wilhelm在投资者看涨期权上表示：“第一季度半导体短缺的影响并不是很大。”第二季度可能会受到影响，但“我们预计到今年年底将恢复部分损失的销量。”</blockquote></p><p> Daimler stock is down 1.1% in overseas trading. Year to date, share are up about 28%.</p><p><blockquote>戴姆勒股价在海外交易中下跌1.1%。今年迄今为止，股价上涨了约28%。</blockquote></p><p> Stellantis (STLA) CEO Carlos Tavares sounded a little more cautious in an April 15 conference noting that production impacts would extend into the second half of 2021 and that “visibility on the speed at which this is going to be fixed is reasonably low right now.”</p><p><blockquote>Stellantis(STLA)首席执行官卡洛斯·塔瓦雷斯(Carlos Tavares)在4月15日的一次会议上显得更加谨慎，他指出，生产影响将延续到2021年下半年，并且“目前解决这一问题的速度相当低”。</blockquote></p><p> Along with some auto makers,&nbsp;Intel&nbsp;(INTC) and&nbsp;Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing&nbsp;(TSM) have also reported first quarter results. Taiwan Semi went first, saying the automotive shortage should be “greatly reduced” by the third quarter of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>除了一些汽车制造商外，英特尔（INTC）和台积电（TSM）也公布了第一季度业绩。台积电率先表示，到2021年第三季度，汽车短缺问题应该会“大幅减少”。</blockquote></p><p> Resolution is good news, but Q3 is a little later than auto companies expected at the beginning of the year. Intel management was a little more cautious on their&nbsp;earnings conference call. They said the shortage might stretch on for longer than investors currently expect. “The industry is now challenged by a&nbsp;shortage&nbsp;of foundry capacity, substrates and components,” commented CEO Patrick Gelsinger&nbsp;Thursday evening. “It will take a couple of years for the ecosystem to make the significant investments to address these&nbsp;shortages.”</p><p><blockquote>决议是个好消息，但Q3比车企年初预期的要晚一点。英特尔管理层对其盈利电话会议更加谨慎。他们表示，短缺可能会持续比投资者目前预期的更长时间。“该行业现在面临代工产能、基板和组件短缺的挑战，”首席执行官帕特里克·基辛格(Patrick Gelsinger)周四晚间评论道。“生态系统需要几年时间才能进行重大投资来解决这些短缺问题。”</blockquote></p><p> Investors should get ready to hear more about shortages extending deeper into 2021. The stocks won’t get a pass unless companies keep putting up good numbers like Diamler. Auto suppler Gentex (GNTX), for instance, missed&nbsp;first quarter sales estimates because of the shortage. The company reported $484 million in first quarter sales Friday. Wall Street was looking for $491 million. Gentex management estimated that $45 million in sales was lost due to the shortage.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该准备好听到更多关于短缺将持续到2021年的消息。除非像Diamler这样的公司继续取得良好的业绩，否则这些股票不会获得通过。例如，汽车供应商Gentex(GNTX)因短缺而未达到第一季度销售预期。该公司周五公布第一季度销售额为4.84亿美元。华尔街寻求4.91亿美元。Gentex管理层估计，由于短缺，销售额损失了4500万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Gentex shares are down about 1% in early trading. That isn’t a big move, but it is a wobble with the S&amp;P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.5% and 0.2%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>Gentex股价早盘下跌约1%。这并不是一个大的波动，但标普500和道琼斯工业平均指数分别上涨0.5%和0.2%。</blockquote></p><p> The chip issue isn’t going away. And it will remain a watch item for auto investors, who aren’t use to thinking about foundries and substrates, as Intel’s Gelsinger put it.</p><p><blockquote>芯片问题不会消失。正如英特尔的基辛格所说，对于汽车投资者来说，它仍将是一个值得关注的项目，他们不习惯考虑代工厂和基板。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Car Stocks Aren’t Getting Crushed by the Chip Shortage<blockquote>为什么汽车股没有因芯片短缺而崩溃</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Car Stocks Aren’t Getting Crushed by the Chip Shortage<blockquote>为什么汽车股没有因芯片短缺而崩溃</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-23 23:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd5e5d8436e3b6476fe344f5ede80cd9\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\"><span>Dreamstime</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>梦想时间</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With first quarter results coming in, car and semiconductor companies are commenting on the microchip shortage which is hampering global auto production. The comments, however, don’t appear to be matching up. While chip makers’ comments are setting off alarms, car makers—whose stocks are mostly off to a great start in 2021—are downplaying the problem.</p><p><blockquote>随着第一季度业绩的公布，汽车和半导体公司正在对阻碍全球汽车生产的微芯片短缺发表评论。然而，这些评论似乎并不匹配。虽然芯片制造商的言论引发了警报，但汽车制造商——其股票在2021年大多有一个良好的开端——正在淡化这个问题。</blockquote></p><p> A lack of microchips that make modern cars function has resulted in unplanned downtime for many auto makers. Ford Motor (ticker: F), for instance, said it was extending outages&nbsp;at three assembly plants Thursday.Terrence Curtin, CEO of electrical component supplier&nbsp;TE Connectivity&nbsp;(TEL) told<i>Barron’s</i> this week that roughly 1 million cars weren’t built in the first quarter because of the shortage. That is about 5% of global auto output. And General Motors (GM) called the shortage a billion dollar headwind to 2021 operating profits when the company reported fourth quarter numbers earlier this year.</p><p><blockquote>由于缺乏使现代汽车发挥作用的微芯片，许多汽车制造商出现了计划外停机。例如，福特汽车（股票代码：F）表示，周四将延长三家装配厂的停电时间。电气元件供应商TE Connectivity(TEL)首席执行官Terrence Curtin表示<i>巴伦周刊</i>本周，由于短缺，第一季度约有100万辆汽车没有生产。这约占全球汽车产量的5%。通用汽车(GM)在今年早些时候公布第四季度数据时称，短缺给2021年营业利润带来了10亿美元的阻力。</blockquote></p><p> Auto stocks, however, have been largely unaffected by the issue. GM and Ford shares, for instance, are both up 36% year to date. Parts suppliers TE and BorgWarner (BWA) are up 9% and 28%, respectively. Car dealer Auto Nation (AN) stock is also on fire as well, up about 38% so far in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>然而，汽车股基本上没有受到该问题的影响。例如，通用汽车和福特的股价今年迄今均上涨了36%。零部件供应商TE和博格华纳(BWA)分别上涨9%和28%。汽车经销商Auto Nation(AN)的股票也很火爆，2021年迄今已上涨约38%。</blockquote></p><p> Demand is strong, rebounding from the 2020 pandemic-induced recession. The optimism for higher sales in 2021 and 2022 is trumping any concern about near term disruption. But the disruption might get worse before it gets better and auto investors will have to square that reality with their outlooks as more company report first quarter numbers.</p><p><blockquote>需求强劲，从2020年大流行引发的衰退中反弹。对2021年和2022年销售额增长的乐观情绪压倒了对近期中断的任何担忧。但这种破坏在好转之前可能会变得更糟，随着更多公司公布第一季度数据，汽车投资者将不得不将这一现实与他们的前景相一致。</blockquote></p><p> Ford is set to report earnings April 28. GM follows on May 5. Daimler (DAI.Germany), for its part, reported&nbsp;first quarter numbers Friday. Things still look good. Car sales rose, product mix was favorable and profitability improved. Management doesn’t sound too worried about microchips. “The impact from semiconductor&nbsp;shortage&nbsp;was not very material in the first quarter,” said CFO Harald Wilhelm&nbsp;on an investor call. Second quarter impacts are possible, but “we anticipate to recover part of the lost volumes by the end of the year.”</p><p><blockquote>福特将于4月28日公布财报。通用汽车将于5月5日跟进。戴姆勒(DAI.Germany)周五公布了第一季度数据。事情看起来还是不错的。汽车销量上升，产品组合良好，盈利能力提高。管理层听起来并不太担心微芯片。首席财务官Harald Wilhelm在投资者看涨期权上表示：“第一季度半导体短缺的影响并不是很大。”第二季度可能会受到影响，但“我们预计到今年年底将恢复部分损失的销量。”</blockquote></p><p> Daimler stock is down 1.1% in overseas trading. Year to date, share are up about 28%.</p><p><blockquote>戴姆勒股价在海外交易中下跌1.1%。今年迄今为止，股价上涨了约28%。</blockquote></p><p> Stellantis (STLA) CEO Carlos Tavares sounded a little more cautious in an April 15 conference noting that production impacts would extend into the second half of 2021 and that “visibility on the speed at which this is going to be fixed is reasonably low right now.”</p><p><blockquote>Stellantis(STLA)首席执行官卡洛斯·塔瓦雷斯(Carlos Tavares)在4月15日的一次会议上显得更加谨慎，他指出，生产影响将延续到2021年下半年，并且“目前解决这一问题的速度相当低”。</blockquote></p><p> Along with some auto makers,&nbsp;Intel&nbsp;(INTC) and&nbsp;Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing&nbsp;(TSM) have also reported first quarter results. Taiwan Semi went first, saying the automotive shortage should be “greatly reduced” by the third quarter of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>除了一些汽车制造商外，英特尔（INTC）和台积电（TSM）也公布了第一季度业绩。台积电率先表示，到2021年第三季度，汽车短缺问题应该会“大幅减少”。</blockquote></p><p> Resolution is good news, but Q3 is a little later than auto companies expected at the beginning of the year. Intel management was a little more cautious on their&nbsp;earnings conference call. They said the shortage might stretch on for longer than investors currently expect. “The industry is now challenged by a&nbsp;shortage&nbsp;of foundry capacity, substrates and components,” commented CEO Patrick Gelsinger&nbsp;Thursday evening. “It will take a couple of years for the ecosystem to make the significant investments to address these&nbsp;shortages.”</p><p><blockquote>决议是个好消息，但Q3比车企年初预期的要晚一点。英特尔管理层对其盈利电话会议更加谨慎。他们表示，短缺可能会持续比投资者目前预期的更长时间。“该行业现在面临代工产能、基板和组件短缺的挑战，”首席执行官帕特里克·基辛格(Patrick Gelsinger)周四晚间评论道。“生态系统需要几年时间才能进行重大投资来解决这些短缺问题。”</blockquote></p><p> Investors should get ready to hear more about shortages extending deeper into 2021. The stocks won’t get a pass unless companies keep putting up good numbers like Diamler. Auto suppler Gentex (GNTX), for instance, missed&nbsp;first quarter sales estimates because of the shortage. The company reported $484 million in first quarter sales Friday. Wall Street was looking for $491 million. Gentex management estimated that $45 million in sales was lost due to the shortage.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该准备好听到更多关于短缺将持续到2021年的消息。除非像Diamler这样的公司继续取得良好的业绩，否则这些股票不会获得通过。例如，汽车供应商Gentex(GNTX)因短缺而未达到第一季度销售预期。该公司周五公布第一季度销售额为4.84亿美元。华尔街寻求4.91亿美元。Gentex管理层估计，由于短缺，销售额损失了4500万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Gentex shares are down about 1% in early trading. That isn’t a big move, but it is a wobble with the S&amp;P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.5% and 0.2%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>Gentex股价早盘下跌约1%。这并不是一个大的波动，但标普500和道琼斯工业平均指数分别上涨0.5%和0.2%。</blockquote></p><p> The chip issue isn’t going away. And it will remain a watch item for auto investors, who aren’t use to thinking about foundries and substrates, as Intel’s Gelsinger put it.</p><p><blockquote>芯片问题不会消失。正如英特尔的基辛格所说，对于汽车投资者来说，它仍将是一个值得关注的项目，他们不习惯考虑代工厂和基板。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/why-auto-stocks-arent-getting-crushed-by-the-chip-shortage-51619189064?mod=RTA\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","TSLA":"特斯拉",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","F":"福特汽车","GM":"通用汽车"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/why-auto-stocks-arent-getting-crushed-by-the-chip-shortage-51619189064?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150672819","content_text":"Dreamstime\nWith first quarter results coming in, car and semiconductor companies are commenting on the microchip shortage which is hampering global auto production. The comments, however, don’t appear to be matching up. While chip makers’ comments are setting off alarms, car makers—whose stocks are mostly off to a great start in 2021—are downplaying the problem.\nA lack of microchips that make modern cars function has resulted in unplanned downtime for many auto makers. Ford Motor (ticker: F), for instance, said it was extending outages at three assembly plants Thursday.Terrence Curtin, CEO of electrical component supplier TE Connectivity (TEL) toldBarron’s this week that roughly 1 million cars weren’t built in the first quarter because of the shortage. That is about 5% of global auto output. And General Motors (GM) called the shortage a billion dollar headwind to 2021 operating profits when the company reported fourth quarter numbers earlier this year.\nAuto stocks, however, have been largely unaffected by the issue. GM and Ford shares, for instance, are both up 36% year to date. Parts suppliers TE and BorgWarner (BWA) are up 9% and 28%, respectively. Car dealer Auto Nation (AN) stock is also on fire as well, up about 38% so far in 2021.\nDemand is strong, rebounding from the 2020 pandemic-induced recession. The optimism for higher sales in 2021 and 2022 is trumping any concern about near term disruption. But the disruption might get worse before it gets better and auto investors will have to square that reality with their outlooks as more company report first quarter numbers.\nFord is set to report earnings April 28. GM follows on May 5. Daimler (DAI.Germany), for its part, reported first quarter numbers Friday. Things still look good. Car sales rose, product mix was favorable and profitability improved. Management doesn’t sound too worried about microchips. “The impact from semiconductor shortage was not very material in the first quarter,” said CFO Harald Wilhelm on an investor call. Second quarter impacts are possible, but “we anticipate to recover part of the lost volumes by the end of the year.”\nDaimler stock is down 1.1% in overseas trading. Year to date, share are up about 28%.\nStellantis (STLA) CEO Carlos Tavares sounded a little more cautious in an April 15 conference noting that production impacts would extend into the second half of 2021 and that “visibility on the speed at which this is going to be fixed is reasonably low right now.”\nAlong with some auto makers, Intel (INTC) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) have also reported first quarter results. Taiwan Semi went first, saying the automotive shortage should be “greatly reduced” by the third quarter of 2021.\nResolution is good news, but Q3 is a little later than auto companies expected at the beginning of the year. Intel management was a little more cautious on their earnings conference call. They said the shortage might stretch on for longer than investors currently expect. “The industry is now challenged by a shortage of foundry capacity, substrates and components,” commented CEO Patrick Gelsinger Thursday evening. “It will take a couple of years for the ecosystem to make the significant investments to address these shortages.”\nInvestors should get ready to hear more about shortages extending deeper into 2021. The stocks won’t get a pass unless companies keep putting up good numbers like Diamler. Auto suppler Gentex (GNTX), for instance, missed first quarter sales estimates because of the shortage. The company reported $484 million in first quarter sales Friday. Wall Street was looking for $491 million. Gentex management estimated that $45 million in sales was lost due to the shortage.\nGentex shares are down about 1% in early trading. That isn’t a big move, but it is a wobble with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.5% and 0.2%, respectively.\nThe chip issue isn’t going away. And it will remain a watch item for auto investors, who aren’t use to thinking about foundries and substrates, as Intel’s Gelsinger put it.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"GM":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"F":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":320,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":373103791,"gmtCreate":1618827656413,"gmtModify":1634290593445,"author":{"id":"3579141850161287","authorId":"3579141850161287","name":"GoaOn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c41bfb0b74d5d9d2f6a9ec08f3a8cb42","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579141850161287","idStr":"3579141850161287"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good buy?","listText":"Good buy?","text":"Good buy?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/373103791","repostId":"1130788275","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":544,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":379892385,"gmtCreate":1618712910847,"gmtModify":1634291318958,"author":{"id":"3579141850161287","authorId":"3579141850161287","name":"GoaOn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c41bfb0b74d5d9d2f6a9ec08f3a8cb42","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579141850161287","idStr":"3579141850161287"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like &amp; Comment","listText":"Like &amp; Comment","text":"Like & Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/379892385","repostId":"2128527958","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":393,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":851022858,"gmtCreate":1634860513707,"gmtModify":1634860513877,"author":{"id":"3579141850161287","authorId":"3579141850161287","name":"GoaOn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c41bfb0b74d5d9d2f6a9ec08f3a8cb42","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579141850161287","idStr":"3579141850161287"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Overreacted","listText":"Overreacted","text":"Overreacted","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/851022858","repostId":"2177467336","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2322,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":163121984,"gmtCreate":1623863466948,"gmtModify":1634026781427,"author":{"id":"3579141850161287","authorId":"3579141850161287","name":"GoaOn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c41bfb0b74d5d9d2f6a9ec08f3a8cb42","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579141850161287","idStr":"3579141850161287"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/163121984","repostId":"169238282","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":169238282,"gmtCreate":1623836980043,"gmtModify":1623836980043,"author":{"id":"3527667586584720","authorId":"3527667586584720","name":"小虎综合资讯","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667586584720","idStr":"3527667586584720"},"themes":[],"title":"有通胀，无“牛市”？华尔街分析师：通胀不会伤害股市","htmlText":"6月16日消息，正如投资者所见，通胀正在升温，但华尔街策略师并未对通胀感到担忧，金融市场目前也认可这一观点。 正如雅虎金融公司Brian Cheung上周指出的那样，在5月价格以几十年来最快的速度上涨后，长期美债收益率跌至数月以来的地点。上周五收盘时，10年期国债收益率接近1.46%，为3月初以来的最低水平。标准普尔500指数周五也创下历史新高。 在周五发布的客户报告中，凯投宏观的 Franziska Palmas认为，目前，美国通胀不会使股市脱轨，尽管凯投认为通胀压力比美联储的“暂时性”观点所暗示的要强一些。 目前，货币政策和经济周期都对股市有利。Palmas认为，未来几年，这些条件不会发生巨大变化。 Palmas指出，通胀上升的迹象并未引发对货币政策前景的重新评估，这主要是因为美联储一直在强调通胀上升只是暂时的，因此不会对此采取行动。投资者似乎相信这一点，因为他们并未将未来几年更激进的紧缩货币政策price in到当前价格中来。 周三，美联储将宣布最新政策决定，并发布一系列最新的经济预测。经济学家预计，美联储将重申，不考虑近期通胀数据，并在退出资产购买计划时保持谨慎态度。 Palmas还指出，“到目前为止，价格上涨和短缺并未引起投资者对经济复苏的重大担忧，将继续上调标准普尔 500指数未来几年的盈利预测。” 雅虎财经也表示，当前美国经济面临的主要挑战是需求超过供给——很多企业出现了工人短缺，另外很多消费者热衷旅行、买车买房。雅虎财经表示，美国经济仍处于不充分复苏阶段，尽管当前经济面临挑战，但问题更多指向经济向好的趋势。","listText":"6月16日消息，正如投资者所见，通胀正在升温，但华尔街策略师并未对通胀感到担忧，金融市场目前也认可这一观点。 正如雅虎金融公司Brian Cheung上周指出的那样，在5月价格以几十年来最快的速度上涨后，长期美债收益率跌至数月以来的地点。上周五收盘时，10年期国债收益率接近1.46%，为3月初以来的最低水平。标准普尔500指数周五也创下历史新高。 在周五发布的客户报告中，凯投宏观的 Franziska Palmas认为，目前，美国通胀不会使股市脱轨，尽管凯投认为通胀压力比美联储的“暂时性”观点所暗示的要强一些。 目前，货币政策和经济周期都对股市有利。Palmas认为，未来几年，这些条件不会发生巨大变化。 Palmas指出，通胀上升的迹象并未引发对货币政策前景的重新评估，这主要是因为美联储一直在强调通胀上升只是暂时的，因此不会对此采取行动。投资者似乎相信这一点，因为他们并未将未来几年更激进的紧缩货币政策price in到当前价格中来。 周三，美联储将宣布最新政策决定，并发布一系列最新的经济预测。经济学家预计，美联储将重申，不考虑近期通胀数据，并在退出资产购买计划时保持谨慎态度。 Palmas还指出，“到目前为止，价格上涨和短缺并未引起投资者对经济复苏的重大担忧，将继续上调标准普尔 500指数未来几年的盈利预测。” 雅虎财经也表示，当前美国经济面临的主要挑战是需求超过供给——很多企业出现了工人短缺，另外很多消费者热衷旅行、买车买房。雅虎财经表示，美国经济仍处于不充分复苏阶段，尽管当前经济面临挑战，但问题更多指向经济向好的趋势。","text":"6月16日消息，正如投资者所见，通胀正在升温，但华尔街策略师并未对通胀感到担忧，金融市场目前也认可这一观点。 正如雅虎金融公司Brian Cheung上周指出的那样，在5月价格以几十年来最快的速度上涨后，长期美债收益率跌至数月以来的地点。上周五收盘时，10年期国债收益率接近1.46%，为3月初以来的最低水平。标准普尔500指数周五也创下历史新高。 在周五发布的客户报告中，凯投宏观的 Franziska Palmas认为，目前，美国通胀不会使股市脱轨，尽管凯投认为通胀压力比美联储的“暂时性”观点所暗示的要强一些。 目前，货币政策和经济周期都对股市有利。Palmas认为，未来几年，这些条件不会发生巨大变化。 Palmas指出，通胀上升的迹象并未引发对货币政策前景的重新评估，这主要是因为美联储一直在强调通胀上升只是暂时的，因此不会对此采取行动。投资者似乎相信这一点，因为他们并未将未来几年更激进的紧缩货币政策price in到当前价格中来。 周三，美联储将宣布最新政策决定，并发布一系列最新的经济预测。经济学家预计，美联储将重申，不考虑近期通胀数据，并在退出资产购买计划时保持谨慎态度。 Palmas还指出，“到目前为止，价格上涨和短缺并未引起投资者对经济复苏的重大担忧，将继续上调标准普尔 500指数未来几年的盈利预测。” 雅虎财经也表示，当前美国经济面临的主要挑战是需求超过供给——很多企业出现了工人短缺，另外很多消费者热衷旅行、买车买房。雅虎财经表示，美国经济仍处于不充分复苏阶段，尽管当前经济面临挑战，但问题更多指向经济向好的趋势。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbaa2b55a50e3a84db55b49dc43275b9","width":"645","height":"446"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169238282","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":584,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":370377215,"gmtCreate":1618558705537,"gmtModify":1634292090209,"author":{"id":"3579141850161287","authorId":"3579141850161287","name":"GoaOn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c41bfb0b74d5d9d2f6a9ec08f3a8cb42","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579141850161287","idStr":"3579141850161287"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Strong","listText":"Strong","text":"Strong","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/370377215","repostId":"2127283686","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":279,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":347409661,"gmtCreate":1618506650653,"gmtModify":1634292434268,"author":{"id":"3579141850161287","authorId":"3579141850161287","name":"GoaOn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c41bfb0b74d5d9d2f6a9ec08f3a8cb42","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579141850161287","idStr":"3579141850161287"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like &amp; comment","listText":"Like &amp; comment","text":"Like & comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/347409661","repostId":"1176797324","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176797324","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1618500878,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1176797324?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-15 23:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMD rose about 4% in morning  trading<blockquote>AMD早盘上涨约4%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176797324","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":" Seeing it unlikely that Intel will ever regain its transistor advantage, Raymond James initiates Advanced Micro Devices with an Outperformrating and $100 price target.Analyst Chris Caso attributes AMD's pullback this year to improving sentiment that Intel can improve its manufacturing situation. But Caso thinks Intel's commitment to in-house production will keep the company running behind AMD.Caso says the current roadmaps show an advantage for AMD and foundry partner TSMC through at least 2024","content":"<p>(April 15)&nbsp;Seeing it unlikely that Intel&nbsp;will ever regain its transistor advantage, Raymond James initiates Advanced Micro Devices(NASDAQ:AMD)&nbsp;with an Outperformrating and $100 price target.</p><p><blockquote>（4月15日）看到英特尔不太可能重新获得其晶体管优势，Raymond James启动了Advanced Micro Devices（纳斯达克：AMD），给予跑赢大盘评级和100美元的目标价。</blockquote></p><p>Analyst Chris Caso attributes AMD's pullback this year to improving sentiment that Intel can improve its manufacturing situation. But Caso thinks Intel's commitment to in-house production will keep the company running behind AMD.</p><p><blockquote>分析师Chris Caso将AMD今年的回调归因于人们对英特尔可以改善其制造状况的情绪改善。但卡索认为，英特尔对内部生产的承诺将使该公司继续落后于AMD。</blockquote></p><p>Caso says the current roadmaps show an advantage for AMD&nbsp;and foundry partner TSMC&nbsp;through at least 2024.</p><p><blockquote>Caso表示，目前的路线图显示AMD和代工合作伙伴台积电至少在2024年之前都具有优势。</blockquote></p><p>AMD&nbsp;shares are&nbsp;up 4.1%&nbsp;to $81.77.</p><p><blockquote>AMD股价上涨4.1%，至81.77美元。</blockquote></p><p>Raymond James downgraded Intel, bearish on thefoundry push.</p><p><blockquote>雷蒙德·詹姆斯(Raymond James)下调了英特尔的评级，看跌代工业务。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3306c7bcf6759c07b50e1e336e351292\" tg-width=\"708\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b5e1cc67b2dbef65f87d6acdee47b05\" tg-width=\"921\" tg-height=\"93\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD rose about 4% in morning  trading<blockquote>AMD早盘上涨约4%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD rose about 4% in morning  trading<blockquote>AMD早盘上涨约4%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-15 23:34</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(April 15)&nbsp;Seeing it unlikely that Intel&nbsp;will ever regain its transistor advantage, Raymond James initiates Advanced Micro Devices(NASDAQ:AMD)&nbsp;with an Outperformrating and $100 price target.</p><p><blockquote>（4月15日）看到英特尔不太可能重新获得其晶体管优势，Raymond James启动了Advanced Micro Devices（纳斯达克：AMD），给予跑赢大盘评级和100美元的目标价。</blockquote></p><p>Analyst Chris Caso attributes AMD's pullback this year to improving sentiment that Intel can improve its manufacturing situation. But Caso thinks Intel's commitment to in-house production will keep the company running behind AMD.</p><p><blockquote>分析师Chris Caso将AMD今年的回调归因于人们对英特尔可以改善其制造状况的情绪改善。但卡索认为，英特尔对内部生产的承诺将使该公司继续落后于AMD。</blockquote></p><p>Caso says the current roadmaps show an advantage for AMD&nbsp;and foundry partner TSMC&nbsp;through at least 2024.</p><p><blockquote>Caso表示，目前的路线图显示AMD和代工合作伙伴台积电至少在2024年之前都具有优势。</blockquote></p><p>AMD&nbsp;shares are&nbsp;up 4.1%&nbsp;to $81.77.</p><p><blockquote>AMD股价上涨4.1%，至81.77美元。</blockquote></p><p>Raymond James downgraded Intel, bearish on thefoundry push.</p><p><blockquote>雷蒙德·詹姆斯(Raymond James)下调了英特尔的评级，看跌代工业务。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3306c7bcf6759c07b50e1e336e351292\" tg-width=\"708\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b5e1cc67b2dbef65f87d6acdee47b05\" tg-width=\"921\" tg-height=\"93\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176797324","content_text":"(April 15) Seeing it unlikely that Intel will ever regain its transistor advantage, Raymond James initiates Advanced Micro Devices(NASDAQ:AMD) with an Outperformrating and $100 price target.Analyst Chris Caso attributes AMD's pullback this year to improving sentiment that Intel can improve its manufacturing situation. But Caso thinks Intel's commitment to in-house production will keep the company running behind AMD.Caso says the current roadmaps show an advantage for AMD and foundry partner TSMC through at least 2024.AMD shares are up 4.1% to $81.77.Raymond James downgraded Intel, bearish on thefoundry 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAN\">$嘉楠科技(CAN)$</a>宣布，在4月的订单基础上，Genesis Digital Assets Limited向公司额外采购了1万台A1246和A1166Pro比特币矿机。根据条款，嘉楠科技将在2021年6月30日之前交付订单内全部比特币矿机。","listText":"6月16日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAN\">$嘉楠科技(CAN)$</a>宣布，在4月的订单基础上，Genesis Digital Assets Limited向公司额外采购了1万台A1246和A1166Pro比特币矿机。根据条款，嘉楠科技将在2021年6月30日之前交付订单内全部比特币矿机。","text":"6月16日，$嘉楠科技(CAN)$宣布，在4月的订单基础上，Genesis Digital Assets Limited向公司额外采购了1万台A1246和A1166Pro比特币矿机。根据条款，嘉楠科技将在2021年6月30日之前交付订单内全部比特币矿机。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169551094","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":621,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":375299950,"gmtCreate":1619342278770,"gmtModify":1634274109850,"author":{"id":"3579141850161287","authorId":"3579141850161287","name":"GoaOn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c41bfb0b74d5d9d2f6a9ec08f3a8cb42","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579141850161287","idStr":"3579141850161287"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Intel (y)","listText":"Intel (y)","text":"Intel (y)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375299950","repostId":"2129645183","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":576,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":137264902,"gmtCreate":1622351915506,"gmtModify":1634102099832,"author":{"id":"3579141850161287","authorId":"3579141850161287","name":"GoaOn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c41bfb0b74d5d9d2f6a9ec08f3a8cb42","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579141850161287","idStr":"3579141850161287"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh..","listText":"Oh..","text":"Oh..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/137264902","repostId":"2138765488","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":419,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":133264247,"gmtCreate":1621755471889,"gmtModify":1634186748157,"author":{"id":"3579141850161287","authorId":"3579141850161287","name":"GoaOn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c41bfb0b74d5d9d2f6a9ec08f3a8cb42","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579141850161287","idStr":"3579141850161287"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/133264247","repostId":"139504437","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":139504437,"gmtCreate":1621642791825,"gmtModify":1744801362398,"author":{"id":"3527667586584720","authorId":"3527667586584720","name":"小虎综合资讯","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667586584720","idStr":"3527667586584720"},"themes":[],"title":"昨夜今晨：道指两连阳，加密货币再现集体大跌","htmlText":"美股周五收盘涨跌不一，比特币下挫拖累科技股及纳指收跌。标普指数录得连续第二周下滑。投资者正在权衡经济复苏、通胀上升及其对美联储政策的影响。此外，中国国务院常务会议部署下一步金融领域重点工作时特别提到坚决防控金融风险，包括打击比特币挖矿和交易行为；香港特区政府拟出台新规，要求加密货币交易所持牌经营并禁止向散户提供买卖服务。 周五经济数据面，美国5月IHS <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">$Markit(MRKT)$</a>预览版美国制造业采购经理人指数从4月份的60.5攀升至61.5，创历史新高，提振了市场信心。另一份数据显示美国4月二手房销量连续三个月下降。 Vital Knowledge创始人Adam Crisafulli表示：“5月份的第一个重要经济数据非常强劲。我们已经知道美联储正在考虑缩表，这份数据可能使他们的缩表意愿更加强烈。但只要美联储不在11月份之前发出缩表讯号，股市就应该没有问题。” 截至收盘，三大指数中仅道指收涨，纳指回吐周四的部分涨幅，和标普均未能实现两连阳。道指收涨123.69点，涨幅0.36%，报34207.84点，为最近四日最高收盘水平，连续两日收涨。标普收跌0.08%，报4155.86点。纳指收跌0.48%，报13470.99点，跌落周四所创的5月7日以来收盘高位。 焦点个股 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>跌1.01%。特斯拉CEO马斯克称，公司即将在俄罗斯开展业务，并考虑在当地建设工厂。马斯克表示特斯拉已经准备好进入俄罗斯市场，也不排除在哈萨克斯坦以及其他独联体国家开展业务。此外特斯拉宣布三款车型起售价上调500美元。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a>股价收高2.6","listText":"美股周五收盘涨跌不一，比特币下挫拖累科技股及纳指收跌。标普指数录得连续第二周下滑。投资者正在权衡经济复苏、通胀上升及其对美联储政策的影响。此外，中国国务院常务会议部署下一步金融领域重点工作时特别提到坚决防控金融风险，包括打击比特币挖矿和交易行为；香港特区政府拟出台新规，要求加密货币交易所持牌经营并禁止向散户提供买卖服务。 周五经济数据面，美国5月IHS <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">$Markit(MRKT)$</a>预览版美国制造业采购经理人指数从4月份的60.5攀升至61.5，创历史新高，提振了市场信心。另一份数据显示美国4月二手房销量连续三个月下降。 Vital Knowledge创始人Adam Crisafulli表示：“5月份的第一个重要经济数据非常强劲。我们已经知道美联储正在考虑缩表，这份数据可能使他们的缩表意愿更加强烈。但只要美联储不在11月份之前发出缩表讯号，股市就应该没有问题。” 截至收盘，三大指数中仅道指收涨，纳指回吐周四的部分涨幅，和标普均未能实现两连阳。道指收涨123.69点，涨幅0.36%，报34207.84点，为最近四日最高收盘水平，连续两日收涨。标普收跌0.08%，报4155.86点。纳指收跌0.48%，报13470.99点，跌落周四所创的5月7日以来收盘高位。 焦点个股 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>跌1.01%。特斯拉CEO马斯克称，公司即将在俄罗斯开展业务，并考虑在当地建设工厂。马斯克表示特斯拉已经准备好进入俄罗斯市场，也不排除在哈萨克斯坦以及其他独联体国家开展业务。此外特斯拉宣布三款车型起售价上调500美元。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a>股价收高2.6","text":"美股周五收盘涨跌不一，比特币下挫拖累科技股及纳指收跌。标普指数录得连续第二周下滑。投资者正在权衡经济复苏、通胀上升及其对美联储政策的影响。此外，中国国务院常务会议部署下一步金融领域重点工作时特别提到坚决防控金融风险，包括打击比特币挖矿和交易行为；香港特区政府拟出台新规，要求加密货币交易所持牌经营并禁止向散户提供买卖服务。 周五经济数据面，美国5月IHS $Markit(MRKT)$预览版美国制造业采购经理人指数从4月份的60.5攀升至61.5，创历史新高，提振了市场信心。另一份数据显示美国4月二手房销量连续三个月下降。 Vital Knowledge创始人Adam Crisafulli表示：“5月份的第一个重要经济数据非常强劲。我们已经知道美联储正在考虑缩表，这份数据可能使他们的缩表意愿更加强烈。但只要美联储不在11月份之前发出缩表讯号，股市就应该没有问题。” 截至收盘，三大指数中仅道指收涨，纳指回吐周四的部分涨幅，和标普均未能实现两连阳。道指收涨123.69点，涨幅0.36%，报34207.84点，为最近四日最高收盘水平，连续两日收涨。标普收跌0.08%，报4155.86点。纳指收跌0.48%，报13470.99点，跌落周四所创的5月7日以来收盘高位。 焦点个股 $特斯拉(TSLA)$跌1.01%。特斯拉CEO马斯克称，公司即将在俄罗斯开展业务，并考虑在当地建设工厂。马斯克表示特斯拉已经准备好进入俄罗斯市场，也不排除在哈萨克斯坦以及其他独联体国家开展业务。此外特斯拉宣布三款车型起售价上调500美元。 $英伟达(NVDA)$股价收高2.6","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d473a82183d7ac5de8b950c84d0c29a6","width":"840","height":"470"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5b4f830577bbc2465a5836aeb8149a7","width":"840","height":"470"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3aa2f57e96ba22a27cbc569f5934c9b","width":"840","height":"470"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/139504437","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":1,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":568,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":348576426,"gmtCreate":1617946816865,"gmtModify":1634295582283,"author":{"id":"3579141850161287","authorId":"3579141850161287","name":"GoaOn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c41bfb0b74d5d9d2f6a9ec08f3a8cb42","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579141850161287","idStr":"3579141850161287"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Very risky","listText":"Very risky","text":"Very risky","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/348576426","repostId":"1143257559","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143257559","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617945822,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1143257559?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-09 13:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How AstraZeneca's latest vaccine troubles could slow the global recovery<blockquote>阿斯利康最新的疫苗问题如何减缓全球复苏</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143257559","media":"cnn","summary":"London (CNN Business) AstraZeneca's vaccine is key to ending the global economic slump caused by the","content":"<p>London (CNN Business)&nbsp;AstraZeneca's vaccine is key to ending the global economic slump caused by the coronavirus. But a series of missteps by the drugmaker and new concerns over blood clots risk undermining public confidence in the shot and delaying the recovery.</p><p><blockquote>伦敦（CNN商业）阿斯利康的疫苗是结束冠状病毒引起的全球经济衰退的关键。但该制药商的一系列失误以及对血栓的新担忧可能会削弱公众对该疫苗的信心并推迟康复。</blockquote></p><p>European drug regulators said there was a possible link between the Oxford-AstraZeneca Covid-19 shot and rare blood clots on Wednesday, but stopped short of recommending its use be limited. UK authorities recommended that people under 30 take alternative vaccines.</p><p><blockquote>欧洲药品监管机构周三表示，牛津-阿斯利康Covid-19疫苗与罕见血栓之间可能存在联系，但没有建议限制其使用。英国当局建议30岁以下的人接种替代疫苗。</blockquote></p><p>It's the latest setback for AstraZeneca (AZN), which has faced criticism over its communication with the public and regulators, the design of its vaccine trials and severe production delays that have slowed the rollout of shots in Europe.</p><p><blockquote>这是阿斯利康（AZN）的最新挫折，该公司因其与公众和监管机构的沟通、疫苗试验的设计以及严重的生产延误而面临批评，这些延误减缓了疫苗在欧洲的推广。</blockquote></p><p>Authorities maintain that the benefits of the vaccine far outweigh the risks for most age groups. Yet shifting guidance and blood clot worries risk snarling distribution efforts in many countries. Germany suspended the use of the AstraZeneca vaccine last week in people under 60 years old, while Australia said Thursday it will not give it to people under the age of 50.</p><p><blockquote>当局坚持认为，对大多数年龄组来说，疫苗的好处远远超过风险。然而，指导方针的转变和对血栓的担忧可能会扰乱许多国家的分销工作。德国上周暂停在60岁以下人群中使用阿斯利康疫苗，而澳大利亚周四表示不会给50岁以下人群接种。</blockquote></p><p>The safety questions could have even bigger implications for developing and middle-income countries, many of which are relying on the shot to unlock their economic comebacks because it's cheaper than other vaccines and can be stored more easily. Many are accessing it through Covax, a global vaccine-sharing program, which has secured more than half its supply from AstraZeneca as of March.</p><p><blockquote>安全问题可能会对发展中国家和中等收入国家产生更大的影响，其中许多国家依靠疫苗来实现经济复苏，因为它比其他疫苗更便宜，而且更容易储存。许多人通过全球疫苗共享计划Covax获得疫苗，截至3月份，该计划已从阿斯利康获得一半以上的供应。</blockquote></p><p>Overall, orders for an estimated 2.4 billion doses of AstraZeneca's vaccine have been confirmed, according to the Duke Global Health Innovation Center. That's roughly 28% of the global total.</p><p><blockquote>根据杜克全球健康创新中心的数据，总体而言，估计有24亿剂阿斯利康疫苗的订单已得到确认。这大约占全球总数的28%。</blockquote></p><p>\"There's a lot of uncertainty here,\" said Ben May, director of macro research at Oxford Economics. He said the AstraZeneca developments weren't enough to revise near-term growth forecasts, but that he would keep monitoring the situation closely.</p><p><blockquote>牛津经济研究院宏观研究主管本·梅表示：“这里存在很多不确定性。”他表示，阿斯利康的进展不足以修改近期增长预测，但他将继续密切关注局势。</blockquote></p><p>The World Health Organization said in a statement Wednesday that \"based on current information, a causal relationship between the vaccine and the occurrence of blood clots with low platelets is considered plausible but is not confirmed.\"</p><p><blockquote>世界卫生组织周三在一份声明中表示，“根据目前的信息，疫苗与低血小板血栓的发生之间的因果关系被认为是合理的，但尚未得到证实。”</blockquote></p><p>AstraZeneca said that nearly 200 million people around the world have already received its vaccine, and that reviews by EU and UK regulators \"reaffirmed the vaccine offers a high-level of protection against all severities of Covid-19 and that these benefits continue to far outweigh the risks.\"</p><p><blockquote>阿斯利康表示，全球已有近2亿人接种了疫苗，欧盟和英国监管机构的审查“重申该疫苗可针对所有严重程度的Covid-19提供高水平的保护，并且这些益处继续远远超过风险。”</blockquote></p><p><b>A rough start</b></p><p><blockquote><b>艰难的开始</b></blockquote></p><p>AstraZeneca received emergency use authorization from the United Kingdom in late December and the European Union one month later. Because the vaccine was less expensive and could be stored at higher temperatures than ones developed by Pfizer (PFE) and Moderna (MRNA), it was heralded as a breakthrough, particularly for less affluent countries that lack sophisticated logistics networks.</p><p><blockquote>阿斯利康于12月下旬获得英国的紧急使用授权，一个月后获得欧盟的紧急使用授权。由于该疫苗比辉瑞(PFE)和Moderna(MRNA)开发的疫苗更便宜，并且可以在更高的温度下储存，因此被誉为一项突破，特别是对于缺乏复杂物流网络的不太富裕的国家。</blockquote></p><p>The company also generated lots of goodwill by pledging to supply its vaccine at no profit during the pandemic, and by partnering with the Serum Institute of India, which agreed to produce more than 1 billion doses for low and middle-income countries. AstraZeneca has already provided over 30 million doses to more than 58 countries through Covax.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还通过承诺在疫情期间无偿供应疫苗，以及与印度血清研究所合作，产生了大量善意，印度血清研究所同意为中低收入国家生产超过10亿剂疫苗。阿斯利康已通过Covax向超过58个国家提供了超过3000万剂疫苗。</blockquote></p><p>However, a series of missteps generated a string of bad headlines for the Anglo-Swedish drugmaker.</p><p><blockquote>然而，一系列失误给这家英瑞制药商带来了一系列糟糕的头条新闻。</blockquote></p><p>The first issue cropped up in November, when the company faced questions about data from large-scale trials. Volunteers received different doses due to a manufacturing error, creating confusion about its actual effectiveness.</p><p><blockquote>第一个问题出现在11月份，当时该公司面临有关大规模试验数据的质疑。由于制造错误，志愿者接受了不同的剂量，造成了对其实际有效性的混淆。</blockquote></p><p>AstraZeneca did not mention that a mistake caused the dosing discrepancy in its initial announcement, generating concerns about a lack of transparency.</p><p><blockquote>阿斯利康在最初的公告中没有提到错误导致了剂量差异，这引发了人们对缺乏透明度的担忧。</blockquote></p><p>\"I hate to criticize fellow academics, or anyone for that matter, but releasing information like this is like asking us to try and read the tea leaves,\" Dr. Saad Omer, a vaccine specialist at the Yale School of Medicine, said at the time.</p><p><blockquote>耶鲁大学医学院疫苗专家萨阿德·奥马尔博士当时表示：“我讨厌批评其他学者或任何人，但发布这样的信息就像要求我们尝试阅读茶叶一样。”。</blockquote></p><p>More stumbles followed. Germany's vaccine commission said in January that AstraZeneca's shots shouldn't be given to people older than 65, citing insufficient data for the age group. France also initially limited AstraZeneca vaccines to those under 65. Both countries changed course last month.</p><p><blockquote>更多的失误接踵而至。德国疫苗委员会一月份表示，阿斯利康疫苗不应给65岁以上的人注射，理由是该年龄组的数据不足。法国最初也将阿斯利康疫苗限制在65岁以下的人群。两国上个月都改变了方针。</blockquote></p><p>Jeffrey Lazarus, head of the health systems research group at the Barcelona Institute for Global Health, previously told CNN Business this was an \"easily avoidable\" issue tied to trial design.</p><p><blockquote>巴塞罗那全球健康研究所卫生系统研究小组负责人杰弗里·拉扎勒斯(Jeffrey Lazarus)此前告诉CNN Business，这是一个与试验设计相关的“容易避免”的问题。</blockquote></p><p>Had the vaccine rollout been smooth, such stumbles may have been forgotten. But continued shortfalls in supply of the AstraZeneca shots in Europe, which is now mired in a third wave of coronavirus infections, have triggered huge political blowback in the bloc. Leaders have imposed restrictions on vaccine exports.</p><p><blockquote>如果疫苗的推广顺利，这样的失误可能会被遗忘。但目前深陷第三波冠状病毒感染泥潭的欧洲阿斯利康疫苗供应持续短缺，在欧盟引发了巨大的政治反弹。领导人对疫苗出口实施了限制。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>\"If we had received the 100% of AstraZeneca's vaccines that were contracted to us, the European Union would be at the same level today as Great Britain in terms of vaccines,\" European Commissioner Thierry Breton said in a recent interview with Le Parisien newspaper. \"So I can say that the pocket of turbulence we have experienced is solely due to AstraZeneca's failure to deliver.\"</p><p><blockquote>欧盟专员蒂埃里·布雷顿(Thierry Breton)最近在接受《巴黎人报》采访时表示：“如果我们100%收到了阿斯利康合同给我们的疫苗，欧盟今天在疫苗方面将与英国处于同一水平。”“所以我可以说，我们所经历的动荡完全是由于阿斯利康未能交付。”</blockquote></p><p><b>AstraZeneca's future role</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿斯利康未来的角色</b></blockquote></p><p>The company also ran afoul of US regulators last month when it submitted trial data from the country. The US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases expressed concerns that the efficacy information submitted was \"outdated.\" AstraZeneca quickly sent in revised data, but Dr. Anthony Fauci, the agency's director, called it \"an unforced error.\"</p><p><blockquote>上个月，该公司在提交美国试验数据时也与美国监管机构发生了冲突。美国国家过敏症和传染病研究所对提交的疗效信息“过时”表示担忧。阿斯利康很快发送了修改后的数据，但该机构主任安东尼·福奇博士称其为“非受迫性错误”。</blockquote></p><p>Now, as fears about rare blood clots force governments around the world to reassess the risk-benefit analysis of providing shots to all age groups, the United States has indicated it does not need AstraZeneca's doses.</p><p><blockquote>现在，由于对罕见血栓的担忧迫使世界各国政府重新评估向所有年龄组提供疫苗的风险效益分析，美国已表示不需要阿斯利康的剂量。</blockquote></p><p>\"We have enough very good vaccines,\" Fauci, who also serves as chief medical adviser to President Joe Biden, told CNN on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>“我们有足够多的非常好的疫苗，”同时担任总统乔·拜登首席医疗顾问的福奇周三告诉美国有线电视新闻网。</blockquote></p><p>Not all countries will have that luxury, however. India, for example, is leaning heavily on AstraZeneca's shot as it tries to fight back against an alarming spike in cases.</p><p><blockquote>然而，并非所有国家都有这种奢侈。例如，印度在试图反击病例激增时严重依赖阿斯利康的疫苗。</blockquote></p><p>Lazarus said Thursday that if wealthier nations decide they want to reduce their reliance on AstraZeneca, he hopes shots can be sent to other nations in need, since the data still indicates it's safe and effective.</p><p><blockquote>拉扎勒斯周四表示，如果富裕国家决定减少对阿斯利康的依赖，他希望可以将疫苗发送到其他有需要的国家，因为数据仍然表明它是安全有效的。</blockquote></p><p>\"There are plenty of other countries that don't have other options because of the logistics ... and because of the cost,\" he said.</p><p><blockquote>“由于物流……以及成本，还有很多其他国家没有其他选择，”他说。</blockquote></p><p>He does worry, however, that all the bad publicity could affect people's willingness to accept an AstraZeneca vaccine when it becomes available.</p><p><blockquote>然而，他确实担心所有的负面宣传可能会影响人们在阿斯利康疫苗上市时接受它的意愿。</blockquote></p><p>\"This is definitely going to impact the reputation of the AstraZeneca vaccine,\" Lazarus said. \"[It] will lead to lower uptake.\"</p><p><blockquote>“这肯定会影响阿斯利康疫苗的声誉，”拉扎勒斯说。“[它]会导致吸收率降低。”</blockquote></p><p>That could be bad news for the global economic recovery. This week, the International Monetary Fund upgraded its forecast for global growth this year to 6%. But that estimate depends in part on the pace of the vaccine rollout.</p><p><blockquote>这对全球经济复苏来说可能是个坏消息。本周，国际货币基金组织将今年全球增长预期上调至6%。但这一估计部分取决于疫苗推出的速度。</blockquote></p><p>\"Anything that might effectively reduce vaccine availability is obviously not good news,\" said May of Oxford Economics.</p><p><blockquote>牛津经济研究院的梅表示：“任何可能有效减少疫苗供应的事情显然都不是好消息。”</blockquote></p><p>The vaccine \"is still usable for the most vulnerable sections of the population,\" he noted. But coupled with supply shortages, new restrictions could complicate the recovery in countries where AstraZeneca's vaccine is central to pandemic exit strategies, May said.</p><p><blockquote>他指出，该疫苗“仍然可用于最脆弱的人群”。但梅表示，再加上供应短缺，新的限制措施可能会使阿斯利康疫苗是大流行退出战略核心的国家的复苏复杂化。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How AstraZeneca's latest vaccine troubles could slow the global recovery<blockquote>阿斯利康最新的疫苗问题如何减缓全球复苏</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow AstraZeneca's latest vaccine troubles could slow the global recovery<blockquote>阿斯利康最新的疫苗问题如何减缓全球复苏</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">cnn</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-09 13:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>London (CNN Business)&nbsp;AstraZeneca's vaccine is key to ending the global economic slump caused by the coronavirus. But a series of missteps by the drugmaker and new concerns over blood clots risk undermining public confidence in the shot and delaying the recovery.</p><p><blockquote>伦敦（CNN商业）阿斯利康的疫苗是结束冠状病毒引起的全球经济衰退的关键。但该制药商的一系列失误以及对血栓的新担忧可能会削弱公众对该疫苗的信心并推迟康复。</blockquote></p><p>European drug regulators said there was a possible link between the Oxford-AstraZeneca Covid-19 shot and rare blood clots on Wednesday, but stopped short of recommending its use be limited. UK authorities recommended that people under 30 take alternative vaccines.</p><p><blockquote>欧洲药品监管机构周三表示，牛津-阿斯利康Covid-19疫苗与罕见血栓之间可能存在联系，但没有建议限制其使用。英国当局建议30岁以下的人接种替代疫苗。</blockquote></p><p>It's the latest setback for AstraZeneca (AZN), which has faced criticism over its communication with the public and regulators, the design of its vaccine trials and severe production delays that have slowed the rollout of shots in Europe.</p><p><blockquote>这是阿斯利康（AZN）的最新挫折，该公司因其与公众和监管机构的沟通、疫苗试验的设计以及严重的生产延误而面临批评，这些延误减缓了疫苗在欧洲的推广。</blockquote></p><p>Authorities maintain that the benefits of the vaccine far outweigh the risks for most age groups. Yet shifting guidance and blood clot worries risk snarling distribution efforts in many countries. Germany suspended the use of the AstraZeneca vaccine last week in people under 60 years old, while Australia said Thursday it will not give it to people under the age of 50.</p><p><blockquote>当局坚持认为，对大多数年龄组来说，疫苗的好处远远超过风险。然而，指导方针的转变和对血栓的担忧可能会扰乱许多国家的分销工作。德国上周暂停在60岁以下人群中使用阿斯利康疫苗，而澳大利亚周四表示不会给50岁以下人群接种。</blockquote></p><p>The safety questions could have even bigger implications for developing and middle-income countries, many of which are relying on the shot to unlock their economic comebacks because it's cheaper than other vaccines and can be stored more easily. Many are accessing it through Covax, a global vaccine-sharing program, which has secured more than half its supply from AstraZeneca as of March.</p><p><blockquote>安全问题可能会对发展中国家和中等收入国家产生更大的影响，其中许多国家依靠疫苗来实现经济复苏，因为它比其他疫苗更便宜，而且更容易储存。许多人通过全球疫苗共享计划Covax获得疫苗，截至3月份，该计划已从阿斯利康获得一半以上的供应。</blockquote></p><p>Overall, orders for an estimated 2.4 billion doses of AstraZeneca's vaccine have been confirmed, according to the Duke Global Health Innovation Center. That's roughly 28% of the global total.</p><p><blockquote>根据杜克全球健康创新中心的数据，总体而言，估计有24亿剂阿斯利康疫苗的订单已得到确认。这大约占全球总数的28%。</blockquote></p><p>\"There's a lot of uncertainty here,\" said Ben May, director of macro research at Oxford Economics. He said the AstraZeneca developments weren't enough to revise near-term growth forecasts, but that he would keep monitoring the situation closely.</p><p><blockquote>牛津经济研究院宏观研究主管本·梅表示：“这里存在很多不确定性。”他表示，阿斯利康的进展不足以修改近期增长预测，但他将继续密切关注局势。</blockquote></p><p>The World Health Organization said in a statement Wednesday that \"based on current information, a causal relationship between the vaccine and the occurrence of blood clots with low platelets is considered plausible but is not confirmed.\"</p><p><blockquote>世界卫生组织周三在一份声明中表示，“根据目前的信息，疫苗与低血小板血栓的发生之间的因果关系被认为是合理的，但尚未得到证实。”</blockquote></p><p>AstraZeneca said that nearly 200 million people around the world have already received its vaccine, and that reviews by EU and UK regulators \"reaffirmed the vaccine offers a high-level of protection against all severities of Covid-19 and that these benefits continue to far outweigh the risks.\"</p><p><blockquote>阿斯利康表示，全球已有近2亿人接种了疫苗，欧盟和英国监管机构的审查“重申该疫苗可针对所有严重程度的Covid-19提供高水平的保护，并且这些益处继续远远超过风险。”</blockquote></p><p><b>A rough start</b></p><p><blockquote><b>艰难的开始</b></blockquote></p><p>AstraZeneca received emergency use authorization from the United Kingdom in late December and the European Union one month later. Because the vaccine was less expensive and could be stored at higher temperatures than ones developed by Pfizer (PFE) and Moderna (MRNA), it was heralded as a breakthrough, particularly for less affluent countries that lack sophisticated logistics networks.</p><p><blockquote>阿斯利康于12月下旬获得英国的紧急使用授权，一个月后获得欧盟的紧急使用授权。由于该疫苗比辉瑞(PFE)和Moderna(MRNA)开发的疫苗更便宜，并且可以在更高的温度下储存，因此被誉为一项突破，特别是对于缺乏复杂物流网络的不太富裕的国家。</blockquote></p><p>The company also generated lots of goodwill by pledging to supply its vaccine at no profit during the pandemic, and by partnering with the Serum Institute of India, which agreed to produce more than 1 billion doses for low and middle-income countries. AstraZeneca has already provided over 30 million doses to more than 58 countries through Covax.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还通过承诺在疫情期间无偿供应疫苗，以及与印度血清研究所合作，产生了大量善意，印度血清研究所同意为中低收入国家生产超过10亿剂疫苗。阿斯利康已通过Covax向超过58个国家提供了超过3000万剂疫苗。</blockquote></p><p>However, a series of missteps generated a string of bad headlines for the Anglo-Swedish drugmaker.</p><p><blockquote>然而，一系列失误给这家英瑞制药商带来了一系列糟糕的头条新闻。</blockquote></p><p>The first issue cropped up in November, when the company faced questions about data from large-scale trials. Volunteers received different doses due to a manufacturing error, creating confusion about its actual effectiveness.</p><p><blockquote>第一个问题出现在11月份，当时该公司面临有关大规模试验数据的质疑。由于制造错误，志愿者接受了不同的剂量，造成了对其实际有效性的混淆。</blockquote></p><p>AstraZeneca did not mention that a mistake caused the dosing discrepancy in its initial announcement, generating concerns about a lack of transparency.</p><p><blockquote>阿斯利康在最初的公告中没有提到错误导致了剂量差异，这引发了人们对缺乏透明度的担忧。</blockquote></p><p>\"I hate to criticize fellow academics, or anyone for that matter, but releasing information like this is like asking us to try and read the tea leaves,\" Dr. Saad Omer, a vaccine specialist at the Yale School of Medicine, said at the time.</p><p><blockquote>耶鲁大学医学院疫苗专家萨阿德·奥马尔博士当时表示：“我讨厌批评其他学者或任何人，但发布这样的信息就像要求我们尝试阅读茶叶一样。”。</blockquote></p><p>More stumbles followed. Germany's vaccine commission said in January that AstraZeneca's shots shouldn't be given to people older than 65, citing insufficient data for the age group. France also initially limited AstraZeneca vaccines to those under 65. Both countries changed course last month.</p><p><blockquote>更多的失误接踵而至。德国疫苗委员会一月份表示，阿斯利康疫苗不应给65岁以上的人注射，理由是该年龄组的数据不足。法国最初也将阿斯利康疫苗限制在65岁以下的人群。两国上个月都改变了方针。</blockquote></p><p>Jeffrey Lazarus, head of the health systems research group at the Barcelona Institute for Global Health, previously told CNN Business this was an \"easily avoidable\" issue tied to trial design.</p><p><blockquote>巴塞罗那全球健康研究所卫生系统研究小组负责人杰弗里·拉扎勒斯(Jeffrey Lazarus)此前告诉CNN Business，这是一个与试验设计相关的“容易避免”的问题。</blockquote></p><p>Had the vaccine rollout been smooth, such stumbles may have been forgotten. But continued shortfalls in supply of the AstraZeneca shots in Europe, which is now mired in a third wave of coronavirus infections, have triggered huge political blowback in the bloc. Leaders have imposed restrictions on vaccine exports.</p><p><blockquote>如果疫苗的推广顺利，这样的失误可能会被遗忘。但目前深陷第三波冠状病毒感染泥潭的欧洲阿斯利康疫苗供应持续短缺，在欧盟引发了巨大的政治反弹。领导人对疫苗出口实施了限制。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>\"If we had received the 100% of AstraZeneca's vaccines that were contracted to us, the European Union would be at the same level today as Great Britain in terms of vaccines,\" European Commissioner Thierry Breton said in a recent interview with Le Parisien newspaper. \"So I can say that the pocket of turbulence we have experienced is solely due to AstraZeneca's failure to deliver.\"</p><p><blockquote>欧盟专员蒂埃里·布雷顿(Thierry Breton)最近在接受《巴黎人报》采访时表示：“如果我们100%收到了阿斯利康合同给我们的疫苗，欧盟今天在疫苗方面将与英国处于同一水平。”“所以我可以说，我们所经历的动荡完全是由于阿斯利康未能交付。”</blockquote></p><p><b>AstraZeneca's future role</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿斯利康未来的角色</b></blockquote></p><p>The company also ran afoul of US regulators last month when it submitted trial data from the country. The US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases expressed concerns that the efficacy information submitted was \"outdated.\" AstraZeneca quickly sent in revised data, but Dr. Anthony Fauci, the agency's director, called it \"an unforced error.\"</p><p><blockquote>上个月，该公司在提交美国试验数据时也与美国监管机构发生了冲突。美国国家过敏症和传染病研究所对提交的疗效信息“过时”表示担忧。阿斯利康很快发送了修改后的数据，但该机构主任安东尼·福奇博士称其为“非受迫性错误”。</blockquote></p><p>Now, as fears about rare blood clots force governments around the world to reassess the risk-benefit analysis of providing shots to all age groups, the United States has indicated it does not need AstraZeneca's doses.</p><p><blockquote>现在，由于对罕见血栓的担忧迫使世界各国政府重新评估向所有年龄组提供疫苗的风险效益分析，美国已表示不需要阿斯利康的剂量。</blockquote></p><p>\"We have enough very good vaccines,\" Fauci, who also serves as chief medical adviser to President Joe Biden, told CNN on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>“我们有足够多的非常好的疫苗，”同时担任总统乔·拜登首席医疗顾问的福奇周三告诉美国有线电视新闻网。</blockquote></p><p>Not all countries will have that luxury, however. India, for example, is leaning heavily on AstraZeneca's shot as it tries to fight back against an alarming spike in cases.</p><p><blockquote>然而，并非所有国家都有这种奢侈。例如，印度在试图反击病例激增时严重依赖阿斯利康的疫苗。</blockquote></p><p>Lazarus said Thursday that if wealthier nations decide they want to reduce their reliance on AstraZeneca, he hopes shots can be sent to other nations in need, since the data still indicates it's safe and effective.</p><p><blockquote>拉扎勒斯周四表示，如果富裕国家决定减少对阿斯利康的依赖，他希望可以将疫苗发送到其他有需要的国家，因为数据仍然表明它是安全有效的。</blockquote></p><p>\"There are plenty of other countries that don't have other options because of the logistics ... and because of the cost,\" he said.</p><p><blockquote>“由于物流……以及成本，还有很多其他国家没有其他选择，”他说。</blockquote></p><p>He does worry, however, that all the bad publicity could affect people's willingness to accept an AstraZeneca vaccine when it becomes available.</p><p><blockquote>然而，他确实担心所有的负面宣传可能会影响人们在阿斯利康疫苗上市时接受它的意愿。</blockquote></p><p>\"This is definitely going to impact the reputation of the AstraZeneca vaccine,\" Lazarus said. \"[It] will lead to lower uptake.\"</p><p><blockquote>“这肯定会影响阿斯利康疫苗的声誉，”拉扎勒斯说。“[它]会导致吸收率降低。”</blockquote></p><p>That could be bad news for the global economic recovery. This week, the International Monetary Fund upgraded its forecast for global growth this year to 6%. But that estimate depends in part on the pace of the vaccine rollout.</p><p><blockquote>这对全球经济复苏来说可能是个坏消息。本周，国际货币基金组织将今年全球增长预期上调至6%。但这一估计部分取决于疫苗推出的速度。</blockquote></p><p>\"Anything that might effectively reduce vaccine availability is obviously not good news,\" said May of Oxford Economics.</p><p><blockquote>牛津经济研究院的梅表示：“任何可能有效减少疫苗供应的事情显然都不是好消息。”</blockquote></p><p>The vaccine \"is still usable for the most vulnerable sections of the population,\" he noted. But coupled with supply shortages, new restrictions could complicate the recovery in countries where AstraZeneca's vaccine is central to pandemic exit strategies, May said.</p><p><blockquote>他指出，该疫苗“仍然可用于最脆弱的人群”。但梅表示，再加上供应短缺，新的限制措施可能会使阿斯利康疫苗是大流行退出战略核心的国家的复苏复杂化。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/04/08/business/astrazeneca-vaccine-corporate-problems/index.html\">cnn</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AZN":"阿斯利康","AZN.UK":"阿斯利康制药"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/04/08/business/astrazeneca-vaccine-corporate-problems/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143257559","content_text":"London (CNN Business) AstraZeneca's vaccine is key to ending the global economic slump caused by the coronavirus. But a series of missteps by the drugmaker and new concerns over blood clots risk undermining public confidence in the shot and delaying the recovery.European drug regulators said there was a possible link between the Oxford-AstraZeneca Covid-19 shot and rare blood clots on Wednesday, but stopped short of recommending its use be limited. UK authorities recommended that people under 30 take alternative vaccines.It's the latest setback for AstraZeneca (AZN), which has faced criticism over its communication with the public and regulators, the design of its vaccine trials and severe production delays that have slowed the rollout of shots in Europe.Authorities maintain that the benefits of the vaccine far outweigh the risks for most age groups. Yet shifting guidance and blood clot worries risk snarling distribution efforts in many countries. Germany suspended the use of the AstraZeneca vaccine last week in people under 60 years old, while Australia said Thursday it will not give it to people under the age of 50.The safety questions could have even bigger implications for developing and middle-income countries, many of which are relying on the shot to unlock their economic comebacks because it's cheaper than other vaccines and can be stored more easily. Many are accessing it through Covax, a global vaccine-sharing program, which has secured more than half its supply from AstraZeneca as of March.Overall, orders for an estimated 2.4 billion doses of AstraZeneca's vaccine have been confirmed, according to the Duke Global Health Innovation Center. That's roughly 28% of the global total.\"There's a lot of uncertainty here,\" said Ben May, director of macro research at Oxford Economics. He said the AstraZeneca developments weren't enough to revise near-term growth forecasts, but that he would keep monitoring the situation closely.The World Health Organization said in a statement Wednesday that \"based on current information, a causal relationship between the vaccine and the occurrence of blood clots with low platelets is considered plausible but is not confirmed.\"AstraZeneca said that nearly 200 million people around the world have already received its vaccine, and that reviews by EU and UK regulators \"reaffirmed the vaccine offers a high-level of protection against all severities of Covid-19 and that these benefits continue to far outweigh the risks.\"A rough startAstraZeneca received emergency use authorization from the United Kingdom in late December and the European Union one month later. Because the vaccine was less expensive and could be stored at higher temperatures than ones developed by Pfizer (PFE) and Moderna (MRNA), it was heralded as a breakthrough, particularly for less affluent countries that lack sophisticated logistics networks.The company also generated lots of goodwill by pledging to supply its vaccine at no profit during the pandemic, and by partnering with the Serum Institute of India, which agreed to produce more than 1 billion doses for low and middle-income countries. AstraZeneca has already provided over 30 million doses to more than 58 countries through Covax.However, a series of missteps generated a string of bad headlines for the Anglo-Swedish drugmaker.The first issue cropped up in November, when the company faced questions about data from large-scale trials. Volunteers received different doses due to a manufacturing error, creating confusion about its actual effectiveness.AstraZeneca did not mention that a mistake caused the dosing discrepancy in its initial announcement, generating concerns about a lack of transparency.\"I hate to criticize fellow academics, or anyone for that matter, but releasing information like this is like asking us to try and read the tea leaves,\" Dr. Saad Omer, a vaccine specialist at the Yale School of Medicine, said at the time.More stumbles followed. Germany's vaccine commission said in January that AstraZeneca's shots shouldn't be given to people older than 65, citing insufficient data for the age group. France also initially limited AstraZeneca vaccines to those under 65. Both countries changed course last month.Jeffrey Lazarus, head of the health systems research group at the Barcelona Institute for Global Health, previously told CNN Business this was an \"easily avoidable\" issue tied to trial design.Had the vaccine rollout been smooth, such stumbles may have been forgotten. But continued shortfalls in supply of the AstraZeneca shots in Europe, which is now mired in a third wave of coronavirus infections, have triggered huge political blowback in the bloc. Leaders have imposed restrictions on vaccine exports.\"If we had received the 100% of AstraZeneca's vaccines that were contracted to us, the European Union would be at the same level today as Great Britain in terms of vaccines,\" European Commissioner Thierry Breton said in a recent interview with Le Parisien newspaper. \"So I can say that the pocket of turbulence we have experienced is solely due to AstraZeneca's failure to deliver.\"AstraZeneca's future roleThe company also ran afoul of US regulators last month when it submitted trial data from the country. The US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases expressed concerns that the efficacy information submitted was \"outdated.\" AstraZeneca quickly sent in revised data, but Dr. Anthony Fauci, the agency's director, called it \"an unforced error.\"Now, as fears about rare blood clots force governments around the world to reassess the risk-benefit analysis of providing shots to all age groups, the United States has indicated it does not need AstraZeneca's doses.\"We have enough very good vaccines,\" Fauci, who also serves as chief medical adviser to President Joe Biden, told CNN on Wednesday.Not all countries will have that luxury, however. India, for example, is leaning heavily on AstraZeneca's shot as it tries to fight back against an alarming spike in cases.Lazarus said Thursday that if wealthier nations decide they want to reduce their reliance on AstraZeneca, he hopes shots can be sent to other nations in need, since the data still indicates it's safe and effective.\"There are plenty of other countries that don't have other options because of the logistics ... and because of the cost,\" he said.He does worry, however, that all the bad publicity could affect people's willingness to accept an AstraZeneca vaccine when it becomes available.\"This is definitely going to impact the reputation of the AstraZeneca vaccine,\" Lazarus said. \"[It] will lead to lower uptake.\"That could be bad news for the global economic recovery. This week, the International Monetary Fund upgraded its forecast for global growth this year to 6%. But that estimate depends in part on the pace of the vaccine rollout.\"Anything that might effectively reduce vaccine availability is obviously not good news,\" said May of Oxford Economics.The vaccine \"is still usable for the most vulnerable sections of the population,\" he noted. But coupled with supply shortages, new restrictions could complicate the recovery in countries where AstraZeneca's vaccine is central to pandemic exit strategies, May said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AZN.UK":0.9,"AZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":315,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":340509533,"gmtCreate":1617424826822,"gmtModify":1634521006248,"author":{"id":"3579141850161287","authorId":"3579141850161287","name":"GoaOn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c41bfb0b74d5d9d2f6a9ec08f3a8cb42","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579141850161287","idStr":"3579141850161287"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/340509533","repostId":"2124758025","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":368,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":840389093,"gmtCreate":1635589345989,"gmtModify":1635589346048,"author":{"id":"3579141850161287","authorId":"3579141850161287","name":"GoaOn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c41bfb0b74d5d9d2f6a9ec08f3a8cb42","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579141850161287","idStr":"3579141850161287"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/840389093","repostId":"850756569","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":850756569,"gmtCreate":1634631211448,"gmtModify":1635853120757,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e396d03155923b283948d2dec9191f8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"36984908995200","idStr":"36984908995200"},"themes":[],"title":"[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!","htmlText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","listText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","text":"Hello, dear Tigers! Happy Halloween! 🎃🎃🎃 Tap here to play the Halloween game, and you stand a chance to win various rewards! Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1. How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'. 2. How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850756569","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3491,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":898617283,"gmtCreate":1628492693242,"gmtModify":1633746708955,"author":{"id":"3579141850161287","authorId":"3579141850161287","name":"GoaOn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c41bfb0b74d5d9d2f6a9ec08f3a8cb42","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579141850161287","idStr":"3579141850161287"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/898617283","repostId":"2158412365","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3101,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}