Mr Charles的个人主页 - 老虎社区

Mr Charles

Mr Charles

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2021-11-23

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$Dropped like grapes

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Huat

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2021-08-09

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2021-08-24

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Palantir Is an Enigma. The Opportunity in Its Stock Is Far More Clear.<blockquote>Palantir是一个谜。其股票的机会要明显得多。</blockquote>

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$Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$Up more !

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2021-10-09

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Morgan Stanley Doubles Down On Doom: Calls For "Fire And Ice" Correction<blockquote>摩根士丹利加倍押注《毁灭战士：评级》进行“火与冰”修正</blockquote>

2021-10-05

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2021-09-24

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Sovos Brands opens for trading at $14.7, up about 22% from IPO price<blockquote>Sovos Brands 开盘价为 14.7 美元，较 IPO 价格上涨约 22%</blockquote>

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grapes","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$Dropped like grapes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/875970965","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4589,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":808600953,"gmtCreate":1627571249072,"gmtModify":1633758164714,"author":{"id":"3579001256990264","authorId":"3579001256990264","name":"Mr Charles","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d164cdc2990dfc0f20ee4ab34dd84b7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579001256990264","idStr":"3579001256990264"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Huat","listText":"Huat","text":"Huat","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/808600953","repostId":"1165497040","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":802,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":898030782,"gmtCreate":1628443204246,"gmtModify":1633747126763,"author":{"id":"3579001256990264","authorId":"3579001256990264","name":"Mr Charles","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d164cdc2990dfc0f20ee4ab34dd84b7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579001256990264","idStr":"3579001256990264"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please like","listText":"Please like","text":"Please like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":12,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/898030782","repostId":"2157901414","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":572,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":835447180,"gmtCreate":1629735800140,"gmtModify":1633682813350,"author":{"id":"3579001256990264","authorId":"3579001256990264","name":"Mr Charles","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d164cdc2990dfc0f20ee4ab34dd84b7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579001256990264","idStr":"3579001256990264"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"More good news. Yay","listText":"More good news. Yay","text":"More good news. Yay","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/835447180","repostId":"1179203616","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1179203616","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629732335,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1179203616?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-23 23:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir Is an Enigma. The Opportunity in Its Stock Is Far More Clear.<blockquote>Palantir是一个谜。其股票的机会要明显得多。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179203616","media":"Barrons","summary":"Palantir Technologies is one of the world’s quirkiest tech companies, and last week the story got we","content":"<p>Palantir Technologies is one of the world’s quirkiest tech companies, and last week the story got weirder than ever. But beneath the surface, there’s an oddly compelling case for the business and the stock.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir Technologies 是世界上最古怪的科技公司之一，上周的故事变得比以往任何时候都更加离奇。但在表面之下，企业和股票都有一个奇怪而令人信服的理由。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir (ticker: PLTR) provides data analytics software to both commercial and government clients. The 18-year-old company has two primary platforms—Gotham, for government applications, and Foundry, for commercial customers. Palantir has a long history of serving U.S. military and intelligence agencies, but lately it’s&nbsp;been building out its sales team to bulk up its commercial business. That plan seems to be getting traction.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir（股票代码：PLTR）为商业和政府客户提供数据分析软件。这家拥有 18 年历史的公司有两个主要平台——面向政府应用的 Gotham 和面向商业客户的 Foundry。Palantir 长期以来一直为美国军方和情报机构服务，但最近它一直在组建销售团队，以扩大其商业业务。这个计划似乎越来越受欢迎。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir went public in a direct listing last September, with the stock&nbsp;opening at $10. It’s since taken shareholders on a wild ride, trading as high as $45 earlier this year. It’s now around $25, still up 150% from listing day.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir 去年 9 月直接上市，股价开盘价为 10 美元。此后，股东们一路狂奔，今年早些时候的交易价格一度高达 45 美元。现在的价格约为 25 美元，比上市当天仍上涨了 150%。</blockquote></p><p> In its&nbsp;recently reported June quarter, Palantir posted revenue of $376 million, up 49% from the year-earlier level. The company got a big boost from its U.S. commercial business, which grew 90%. Palantir sees September quarter revenue inching up to $385 million, and it continues to forecast annual top-line growth of 30%-plus through 2025.</p><p><blockquote>在最近公布的 6 月份季度中，Palantir 的收入为 3.76 亿美元，比去年同期增长 49%。该公司的美国商业业务增长了 90%，极大地推动了该公司的发展。Palantir 预计 9 月份季度收入将小幅升至 3.85 亿美元，并继续预测到 2025 年年营收增长将达到 30% 以上。</blockquote></p><p> But the core story gets lost in the noise—Palantir seems to thrive on controversy. Almost everything it does is outside the box. Before last year’s stock listing, Palantir quietly moved its headquarters to Denver from Palo Alto. The reasoning boils down to politics.</p><p><blockquote>但核心故事在噪音中消失了——Palantir 似乎在争议中茁壮成长。它做的几乎一切都是打破常规的。在去年上市之前，Palantir 悄然将总部从帕洛阿尔托迁至丹佛。原因可以归结为政治。</blockquote></p><p> “When we started the company in 2004, the idea was to bring world-class software to our intelligence and military communities,” Palantir CEO Alex Karp&nbsp;told me in a June interview. “Numerous companies in Silicon Valley have refused either overtly, tacitly, or by dragging their feet, to work with the U.S. government. … I believe in general there’s a choice to be made in the world, and America has serious, rigorous, intelligent, and sometimes ruthless adversaries.”</p><p><blockquote>“Palantir 首席执行官亚历克斯-卡普（Alex Karp）在 6 月份的一次采访中告诉我：”我们在 2004 年创办公司时，我们的想法是为我们的情报和军事界带来世界一流的软件。“硅谷的许多公司要么公开、要么心照不宣，要么拖拖拉拉地拒绝与美国政府合作。.我相信，世界上总的来说是有选择的，美国有严肃、严谨、聪明，有时甚至是无情的对手”。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir has also been doing unusual things with the $2.4 billion in cash on its balance sheet. The company is&nbsp;aggressively investing in PIPEs, or private investments in public equities, which are used in almost every SPAC merger to increase the capital raised. Palantir has&nbsp;committed $310 million across more than a dozen SPACs, or special purpose acquisition companies, according to its latest SEC filing. It’s completed $33 million of equity investments across three other companies.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir 还利用其资产负债表上的 24 亿美元现金做了一些不寻常的事情。该公司正在积极投资管道，即公共股权的私人投资，几乎每一次特殊目的收购公司合并都使用管道来增加筹集的资本。根据最新提交给 SEC 的文件，Palantir 已承诺向十几家 SPAC（特殊目的收购公司）投资 3.1 亿美元。该公司已完成对其他三家公司 3300 万美元的股权投资。</blockquote></p><p> The most recent tranche includes $20 million for Fast Radius, which offers a “cloud manufacturing platform;” $15 million for Tritium, a developer of electric vehicle chargers; $15 million for AdTheorent, which sells advertising software driven by machine learning; and $10 million for FinAccel, an Asian financial-services company.</p><p><blockquote>最近一笔款项包括向 Fast Radius 提供 2000 万美元，该公司提供 “云制造平台”；1500万美元收购电动汽车充电器开发商Tritium；1500万美元收购AdTheorent，该公司销售由机器学习驱动的广告软件；以及亚洲金融服务公司 FinAccel 的 1000 万美元。</blockquote></p><p> All the targets have signed up to be Palantir customers. As of June 30, Palantir said it had commercial contracts with its SPAC portfolio companies with a potential value of $428 million; the revenue contribution in the latest quarter was just $3 million, or less than 1% of the total.</p><p><blockquote>所有目标都已注册成为Palantir客户。截至 6 月 30 日，Palantir 表示，其与其 SPAC 投资组合公司签订了潜在价值 4.28 亿美元的商业合同；最近一个季度的收入贡献仅为300万美元，不到总额的1%。</blockquote></p><p> SPACs are a highly speculative place for a public company to be parking its cash. But I’d argue that Palantir’s decision to provide capital to new customers isn’t so different from offering vendor debt financing for hardware purchases—as&nbsp;IBM(IBM) and HP Enterprise (HPE) do—or from running robust venture capital programs, as do&nbsp;Intel(INTC) and&nbsp;Salesforce.com(CRM).</p><p><blockquote>SPAC 是上市公司存放现金的高度投机性的地方。但我认为，Palantir 向新客户提供资本的决定与为硬件采购提供供应商债务融资（如 IBM（IBM）和惠普企业（HPE）所做的那样）或运行稳健的风险投资计划（如英特尔（INTC）和 Salesforce.com（CRM）所做的那样）并没有太大区别。</blockquote></p><p> Even so, it makes some analysts squeamish. “While we don’t oppose thinking outside the box, we think the strategy may have been taken too far, particularly with software contracts that appear to be negotiated alongside an investment by Palantir in the same customer,” Citi’s Tyler Radke wrote in a recent research note.</p><p><blockquote>即便如此，这也让一些分析师感到不安。“花旗银行的泰勒-拉德克（Tyler Radke）在最近的一份研究报告中写道：”虽然我们不反对跳出框框思考，但我们认为这种策略可能走得太远了，尤其是软件合同似乎是在 Palantir 对同一客户的投资同时谈判的。</blockquote></p><p> The outside-the-box strategy goes beyond SPACs. This past week, Palantir disclosed that it had purchased $50.7 million worth of 100-ounce gold bars—a pretty strange move, even for Palantir. I ran a text search in the SEC’s database looking for references to gold bars, and found only references to other gold companies. The move makes&nbsp;Tesla’s(TSLA) Bitcoin purchases seem mundane.</p><p><blockquote>开箱即用的策略超越了 SPAC。上周，Palantir 披露其购买了价值 5070 万美元的 100 盎司金条——即使对 Palantir 来说，这也是一个相当奇怪的举动。我在美国证券交易委员会的数据库中进行了文本搜索，寻找金条的参考资料，结果只找到了其他黄金公司的参考资料。此举让特斯拉（TSLA）在比特币的收购显得平淡无奇。</blockquote></p><p> The fact that Palantir decided to buy physical gold, rather than, say, the&nbsp;SPDR Gold Shares&nbsp;ETF (GLD), makes it odder still. Palatnir ends up looking like the corporate equivalent of a doomsday prepper. I tried to follow-up with Karp to ask about the sudden interest in gold, but Palantir declined to make him available.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir 决定购买实物黄金，而不是 SPDR 黄金股票 ETF (GLD)，这一事实让事情变得更加奇怪。帕拉特尼尔最终看起来就像一个世界末日准备者的公司。我试图跟进卡普，询问他对黄金的突然兴趣，但帕兰蒂尔拒绝让他有空。</blockquote></p><p> One analyst who follows the company told me that the SPAC program and the foray into gold make Palantir a hard sell for institutional investors. You can see that in the shareholder base. Institutions hold only 25% of Palantir shares—compared with&nbsp;Oracle’s(ORCL) 46%,Snowflake’s(SNOW) 58%, and&nbsp;Microsoft’s(MSFT) 71%.</p><p><blockquote>一位关注该公司的分析师告诉我，SPAC 计划和进军黄金市场使得 Palantir 成为机构投资者难以出售的对象。你可以在股东基础中看到这一点。机构仅持有 Palantir 25% 的股份，而甲骨文 (ORCL) 持有 46%，雪花 (SNOW) 持有 58%，微软 (MSFT) 持有 71%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But the same analyst is still bullish on Palantir and says it offers “a very interesting set of solutions to buyers that require scale and sophistication.”</p><p><blockquote>但这位分析师仍然看好 Palantir，并称它为 “需要规模和成熟度的买家提供了一套非常有趣的解决方案”。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir has a fanatical following among individual investors, and the company is playing to its fans. During its June-quarter earnings call, Palantir took nine questions from retail investors and just four from analysts.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir 在个人投资者中拥有狂热的追随者，该公司正在迎合其粉丝。在 6 月份季度收益看涨期权上，Palantir 回答了散户投资者的 9 个问题，而分析师只回答了 4 个问题。</blockquote></p><p> On traditional metrics, Palantir isn’t cheap. The stock trades for 25 times estimated 2022 sales. But strip away the craziness, and Palantir looks like the single best bet on the future of complex data analytics. There aren’t many other ways for investors to play the opportunity—and the world isn’t getting any simpler or less dangerous.</p><p><blockquote>按照传统标准，Palantir 并不便宜。该股交易价格是 2022 年预计销售额的 25 倍。但抛开疯狂，Palantir 看起来像是复杂数据分析未来的最佳选择。对于投资者来说，没有太多其他方法可以利用这个机会--这个世界并没有变得更简单或更不危险。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir Is an Enigma. The Opportunity in Its Stock Is Far More Clear.<blockquote>Palantir是一个谜。其股票的机会要明显得多。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir Is an Enigma. The Opportunity in Its Stock Is Far More Clear.<blockquote>Palantir是一个谜。其股票的机会要明显得多。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-23 23:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Palantir Technologies is one of the world’s quirkiest tech companies, and last week the story got weirder than ever. But beneath the surface, there’s an oddly compelling case for the business and the stock.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir Technologies 是世界上最古怪的科技公司之一，上周的故事变得比以往任何时候都更加离奇。但在表面之下，企业和股票都有一个奇怪而令人信服的理由。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir (ticker: PLTR) provides data analytics software to both commercial and government clients. The 18-year-old company has two primary platforms—Gotham, for government applications, and Foundry, for commercial customers. Palantir has a long history of serving U.S. military and intelligence agencies, but lately it’s&nbsp;been building out its sales team to bulk up its commercial business. That plan seems to be getting traction.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir（股票代码：PLTR）为商业和政府客户提供数据分析软件。这家拥有 18 年历史的公司有两个主要平台——面向政府应用的 Gotham 和面向商业客户的 Foundry。Palantir 长期以来一直为美国军方和情报机构服务，但最近它一直在组建销售团队，以扩大其商业业务。这个计划似乎越来越受欢迎。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir went public in a direct listing last September, with the stock&nbsp;opening at $10. It’s since taken shareholders on a wild ride, trading as high as $45 earlier this year. It’s now around $25, still up 150% from listing day.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir 去年 9 月直接上市，股价开盘价为 10 美元。此后，股东们一路狂奔，今年早些时候的交易价格一度高达 45 美元。现在的价格约为 25 美元，比上市当天仍上涨了 150%。</blockquote></p><p> In its&nbsp;recently reported June quarter, Palantir posted revenue of $376 million, up 49% from the year-earlier level. The company got a big boost from its U.S. commercial business, which grew 90%. Palantir sees September quarter revenue inching up to $385 million, and it continues to forecast annual top-line growth of 30%-plus through 2025.</p><p><blockquote>在最近公布的 6 月份季度中，Palantir 的收入为 3.76 亿美元，比去年同期增长 49%。该公司的美国商业业务增长了 90%，极大地推动了该公司的发展。Palantir 预计 9 月份季度收入将小幅升至 3.85 亿美元，并继续预测到 2025 年年营收增长将达到 30% 以上。</blockquote></p><p> But the core story gets lost in the noise—Palantir seems to thrive on controversy. Almost everything it does is outside the box. Before last year’s stock listing, Palantir quietly moved its headquarters to Denver from Palo Alto. The reasoning boils down to politics.</p><p><blockquote>但核心故事在噪音中消失了——Palantir 似乎在争议中茁壮成长。它做的几乎一切都是打破常规的。在去年上市之前，Palantir 悄然将总部从帕洛阿尔托迁至丹佛。原因可以归结为政治。</blockquote></p><p> “When we started the company in 2004, the idea was to bring world-class software to our intelligence and military communities,” Palantir CEO Alex Karp&nbsp;told me in a June interview. “Numerous companies in Silicon Valley have refused either overtly, tacitly, or by dragging their feet, to work with the U.S. government. … I believe in general there’s a choice to be made in the world, and America has serious, rigorous, intelligent, and sometimes ruthless adversaries.”</p><p><blockquote>“Palantir 首席执行官亚历克斯-卡普（Alex Karp）在 6 月份的一次采访中告诉我：”我们在 2004 年创办公司时，我们的想法是为我们的情报和军事界带来世界一流的软件。“硅谷的许多公司要么公开、要么心照不宣，要么拖拖拉拉地拒绝与美国政府合作。.我相信，世界上总的来说是有选择的，美国有严肃、严谨、聪明，有时甚至是无情的对手”。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir has also been doing unusual things with the $2.4 billion in cash on its balance sheet. The company is&nbsp;aggressively investing in PIPEs, or private investments in public equities, which are used in almost every SPAC merger to increase the capital raised. Palantir has&nbsp;committed $310 million across more than a dozen SPACs, or special purpose acquisition companies, according to its latest SEC filing. It’s completed $33 million of equity investments across three other companies.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir 还利用其资产负债表上的 24 亿美元现金做了一些不寻常的事情。该公司正在积极投资管道，即公共股权的私人投资，几乎每一次特殊目的收购公司合并都使用管道来增加筹集的资本。根据最新提交给 SEC 的文件，Palantir 已承诺向十几家 SPAC（特殊目的收购公司）投资 3.1 亿美元。该公司已完成对其他三家公司 3300 万美元的股权投资。</blockquote></p><p> The most recent tranche includes $20 million for Fast Radius, which offers a “cloud manufacturing platform;” $15 million for Tritium, a developer of electric vehicle chargers; $15 million for AdTheorent, which sells advertising software driven by machine learning; and $10 million for FinAccel, an Asian financial-services company.</p><p><blockquote>最近一笔款项包括向 Fast Radius 提供 2000 万美元，该公司提供 “云制造平台”；1500万美元收购电动汽车充电器开发商Tritium；1500万美元收购AdTheorent，该公司销售由机器学习驱动的广告软件；以及亚洲金融服务公司 FinAccel 的 1000 万美元。</blockquote></p><p> All the targets have signed up to be Palantir customers. As of June 30, Palantir said it had commercial contracts with its SPAC portfolio companies with a potential value of $428 million; the revenue contribution in the latest quarter was just $3 million, or less than 1% of the total.</p><p><blockquote>所有目标都已注册成为Palantir客户。截至 6 月 30 日，Palantir 表示，其与其 SPAC 投资组合公司签订了潜在价值 4.28 亿美元的商业合同；最近一个季度的收入贡献仅为300万美元，不到总额的1%。</blockquote></p><p> SPACs are a highly speculative place for a public company to be parking its cash. But I’d argue that Palantir’s decision to provide capital to new customers isn’t so different from offering vendor debt financing for hardware purchases—as&nbsp;IBM(IBM) and HP Enterprise (HPE) do—or from running robust venture capital programs, as do&nbsp;Intel(INTC) and&nbsp;Salesforce.com(CRM).</p><p><blockquote>SPAC 是上市公司存放现金的高度投机性的地方。但我认为，Palantir 向新客户提供资本的决定与为硬件采购提供供应商债务融资（如 IBM（IBM）和惠普企业（HPE）所做的那样）或运行稳健的风险投资计划（如英特尔（INTC）和 Salesforce.com（CRM）所做的那样）并没有太大区别。</blockquote></p><p> Even so, it makes some analysts squeamish. “While we don’t oppose thinking outside the box, we think the strategy may have been taken too far, particularly with software contracts that appear to be negotiated alongside an investment by Palantir in the same customer,” Citi’s Tyler Radke wrote in a recent research note.</p><p><blockquote>即便如此，这也让一些分析师感到不安。“花旗银行的泰勒-拉德克（Tyler Radke）在最近的一份研究报告中写道：”虽然我们不反对跳出框框思考，但我们认为这种策略可能走得太远了，尤其是软件合同似乎是在 Palantir 对同一客户的投资同时谈判的。</blockquote></p><p> The outside-the-box strategy goes beyond SPACs. This past week, Palantir disclosed that it had purchased $50.7 million worth of 100-ounce gold bars—a pretty strange move, even for Palantir. I ran a text search in the SEC’s database looking for references to gold bars, and found only references to other gold companies. The move makes&nbsp;Tesla’s(TSLA) Bitcoin purchases seem mundane.</p><p><blockquote>开箱即用的策略超越了 SPAC。上周，Palantir 披露其购买了价值 5070 万美元的 100 盎司金条——即使对 Palantir 来说，这也是一个相当奇怪的举动。我在美国证券交易委员会的数据库中进行了文本搜索，寻找金条的参考资料，结果只找到了其他黄金公司的参考资料。此举让特斯拉（TSLA）在比特币的收购显得平淡无奇。</blockquote></p><p> The fact that Palantir decided to buy physical gold, rather than, say, the&nbsp;SPDR Gold Shares&nbsp;ETF (GLD), makes it odder still. Palatnir ends up looking like the corporate equivalent of a doomsday prepper. I tried to follow-up with Karp to ask about the sudden interest in gold, but Palantir declined to make him available.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir 决定购买实物黄金，而不是 SPDR 黄金股票 ETF (GLD)，这一事实让事情变得更加奇怪。帕拉特尼尔最终看起来就像一个世界末日准备者的公司。我试图跟进卡普，询问他对黄金的突然兴趣，但帕兰蒂尔拒绝让他有空。</blockquote></p><p> One analyst who follows the company told me that the SPAC program and the foray into gold make Palantir a hard sell for institutional investors. You can see that in the shareholder base. Institutions hold only 25% of Palantir shares—compared with&nbsp;Oracle’s(ORCL) 46%,Snowflake’s(SNOW) 58%, and&nbsp;Microsoft’s(MSFT) 71%.</p><p><blockquote>一位关注该公司的分析师告诉我，SPAC 计划和进军黄金市场使得 Palantir 成为机构投资者难以出售的对象。你可以在股东基础中看到这一点。机构仅持有 Palantir 25% 的股份，而甲骨文 (ORCL) 持有 46%，雪花 (SNOW) 持有 58%，微软 (MSFT) 持有 71%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But the same analyst is still bullish on Palantir and says it offers “a very interesting set of solutions to buyers that require scale and sophistication.”</p><p><blockquote>但这位分析师仍然看好 Palantir，并称它为 “需要规模和成熟度的买家提供了一套非常有趣的解决方案”。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir has a fanatical following among individual investors, and the company is playing to its fans. During its June-quarter earnings call, Palantir took nine questions from retail investors and just four from analysts.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir 在个人投资者中拥有狂热的追随者，该公司正在迎合其粉丝。在 6 月份季度收益看涨期权上，Palantir 回答了散户投资者的 9 个问题，而分析师只回答了 4 个问题。</blockquote></p><p> On traditional metrics, Palantir isn’t cheap. The stock trades for 25 times estimated 2022 sales. But strip away the craziness, and Palantir looks like the single best bet on the future of complex data analytics. There aren’t many other ways for investors to play the opportunity—and the world isn’t getting any simpler or less dangerous.</p><p><blockquote>按照传统标准，Palantir 并不便宜。该股交易价格是 2022 年预计销售额的 25 倍。但抛开疯狂，Palantir 看起来像是复杂数据分析未来的最佳选择。对于投资者来说，没有太多其他方法可以利用这个机会--这个世界并没有变得更简单或更不危险。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/palantir-stock-spacs-gold-51629497963?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_3\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/palantir-stock-spacs-gold-51629497963?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179203616","content_text":"Palantir Technologies is one of the world’s quirkiest tech companies, and last week the story got weirder than ever. But beneath the surface, there’s an oddly compelling case for the business and the stock.\nPalantir (ticker: PLTR) provides data analytics software to both commercial and government clients. The 18-year-old company has two primary platforms—Gotham, for government applications, and Foundry, for commercial customers. Palantir has a long history of serving U.S. military and intelligence agencies, but lately it’s been building out its sales team to bulk up its commercial business. That plan seems to be getting traction.\nPalantir went public in a direct listing last September, with the stock opening at $10. It’s since taken shareholders on a wild ride, trading as high as $45 earlier this year. It’s now around $25, still up 150% from listing day.\nIn its recently reported June quarter, Palantir posted revenue of $376 million, up 49% from the year-earlier level. The company got a big boost from its U.S. commercial business, which grew 90%. Palantir sees September quarter revenue inching up to $385 million, and it continues to forecast annual top-line growth of 30%-plus through 2025.\nBut the core story gets lost in the noise—Palantir seems to thrive on controversy. Almost everything it does is outside the box. Before last year’s stock listing, Palantir quietly moved its headquarters to Denver from Palo Alto. The reasoning boils down to politics.\n“When we started the company in 2004, the idea was to bring world-class software to our intelligence and military communities,” Palantir CEO Alex Karp told me in a June interview. “Numerous companies in Silicon Valley have refused either overtly, tacitly, or by dragging their feet, to work with the U.S. government. … I believe in general there’s a choice to be made in the world, and America has serious, rigorous, intelligent, and sometimes ruthless adversaries.”\nPalantir has also been doing unusual things with the $2.4 billion in cash on its balance sheet. The company is aggressively investing in PIPEs, or private investments in public equities, which are used in almost every SPAC merger to increase the capital raised. Palantir has committed $310 million across more than a dozen SPACs, or special purpose acquisition companies, according to its latest SEC filing. It’s completed $33 million of equity investments across three other companies.\n\nThe most recent tranche includes $20 million for Fast Radius, which offers a “cloud manufacturing platform;” $15 million for Tritium, a developer of electric vehicle chargers; $15 million for AdTheorent, which sells advertising software driven by machine learning; and $10 million for FinAccel, an Asian financial-services company.\nAll the targets have signed up to be Palantir customers. As of June 30, Palantir said it had commercial contracts with its SPAC portfolio companies with a potential value of $428 million; the revenue contribution in the latest quarter was just $3 million, or less than 1% of the total.\nSPACs are a highly speculative place for a public company to be parking its cash. But I’d argue that Palantir’s decision to provide capital to new customers isn’t so different from offering vendor debt financing for hardware purchases—as IBM(IBM) and HP Enterprise (HPE) do—or from running robust venture capital programs, as do Intel(INTC) and Salesforce.com(CRM).\nEven so, it makes some analysts squeamish. “While we don’t oppose thinking outside the box, we think the strategy may have been taken too far, particularly with software contracts that appear to be negotiated alongside an investment by Palantir in the same customer,” Citi’s Tyler Radke wrote in a recent research note.\nThe outside-the-box strategy goes beyond SPACs. This past week, Palantir disclosed that it had purchased $50.7 million worth of 100-ounce gold bars—a pretty strange move, even for Palantir. I ran a text search in the SEC’s database looking for references to gold bars, and found only references to other gold companies. The move makes Tesla’s(TSLA) Bitcoin purchases seem mundane.\nThe fact that Palantir decided to buy physical gold, rather than, say, the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD), makes it odder still. Palatnir ends up looking like the corporate equivalent of a doomsday prepper. I tried to follow-up with Karp to ask about the sudden interest in gold, but Palantir declined to make him available.\nOne analyst who follows the company told me that the SPAC program and the foray into gold make Palantir a hard sell for institutional investors. You can see that in the shareholder base. Institutions hold only 25% of Palantir shares—compared with Oracle’s(ORCL) 46%,Snowflake’s(SNOW) 58%, and Microsoft’s(MSFT) 71%.\nBut the same analyst is still bullish on Palantir and says it offers “a very interesting set of solutions to buyers that require scale and sophistication.”\nPalantir has a fanatical following among individual investors, and the company is playing to its fans. During its June-quarter earnings call, Palantir took nine questions from retail investors and just four from analysts.\nOn traditional metrics, Palantir isn’t cheap. The stock trades for 25 times estimated 2022 sales. But strip away the craziness, and Palantir looks like the single best bet on the future of complex data analytics. There aren’t many other ways for investors to play the opportunity—and the world isn’t getting any simpler or less dangerous.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":494,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":892029094,"gmtCreate":1628612714418,"gmtModify":1633745709558,"author":{"id":"3579001256990264","authorId":"3579001256990264","name":"Mr Charles","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d164cdc2990dfc0f20ee4ab34dd84b7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579001256990264","idStr":"3579001256990264"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRNA\">$Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$</a>Up more !","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRNA\">$Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$</a>Up more !","text":"$Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$Up more !","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38668ee0284c21dc5708e64eb3e92674","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/892029094","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":983,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":895933495,"gmtCreate":1628700921217,"gmtModify":1633744994668,"author":{"id":"3579001256990264","authorId":"3579001256990264","name":"Mr Charles","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d164cdc2990dfc0f20ee4ab34dd84b7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579001256990264","idStr":"3579001256990264"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRNA\">$Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$</a>upup please","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRNA\">$Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$</a>upup please","text":"$Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$upup please","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da5715be4cc941125c4277c48d3aef61","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/895933495","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":495,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":811701882,"gmtCreate":1630341419946,"gmtModify":1704958851772,"author":{"id":"3579001256990264","authorId":"3579001256990264","name":"Mr Charles","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d164cdc2990dfc0f20ee4ab34dd84b7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579001256990264","idStr":"3579001256990264"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please like","listText":"Please like","text":"Please like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/811701882","repostId":"1117774965","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":654,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":821141128,"gmtCreate":1633709061626,"gmtModify":1633709061882,"author":{"id":"3579001256990264","authorId":"3579001256990264","name":"Mr Charles","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d164cdc2990dfc0f20ee4ab34dd84b7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579001256990264","idStr":"3579001256990264"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please like","listText":"Please like","text":"Please like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821141128","repostId":"1195699682","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195699682","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633706084,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1195699682?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-08 23:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley Doubles Down On Doom: Calls For \"Fire And Ice\" Correction<blockquote>摩根士丹利加倍押注《毁灭战士：评级》进行“火与冰”修正</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195699682","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande","content":"<p>Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande default contagtion (which certainly remains on the table), Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilsontook the opportunityto pour some fuel on the fire, or rather \"ice\", and warned that odds of a \"destructive\" 20% correction are rising.</p><p><blockquote>三周前，由于对恒大违约蔓延的担忧（这当然仍然存在），市场陷入了短暂但急剧的抛售，摩根士丹利的迈克·威尔逊借此机会火上浇油，或者更确切地说是“冰”，并警告说，“破坏性”20% 修正的可能性正在上升。</blockquote></p><p> As a reminder, for much of the summer, Wilson had been predicting that the current market meltup would end either in \"fire\", i.e. a sharp market correction...</p><p><blockquote>提醒一下，在今年夏天的大部分时间里，威尔逊一直预测当前的市场融化要么会以“火”告终，即市场大幅调整……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7ed4becb4b4add1c291379068668ca7\" tg-width=\"1123\" tg-height=\"660\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> or or \"Ice\", with consumer spending grinding to a halt...</p><p><blockquote>或者“冰”，消费者支出陷入停滞……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83d20b93fac562ec12c5371ce0cec674\" tg-width=\"1130\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Pointing to his two gloomy predictions during the \"Evergrande Monday\" plunge, Wilson wrote that \"the ice scenario would be worse for markets<b>and we are leaning in that direction</b>given the fall in consumer confidence and reset lower in PMIs we expect.\" This is what he said, in the context of his longer running thesis that the \"mid-cycle\" is about to have a painful correction as we gradually transition into late cycle:</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊指出了他在“恒大星期一”暴跌期间的两个悲观预测，他写道，“ice的情况对市场来说会更糟<b>我们正朝着那个方向发展</b>鉴于消费者信心下降以及我们预计采购经理人指数将再次走低。”这是他在长期论点的背景下所说的话，即随着我们逐渐过渡到周期后期，“周期中期”即将进行痛苦的修正：</blockquote></p><p>   The typical mid-cycle \"fire\" outcome would lead to a modest and healthy 10% correction in the S&amp;P 500. However, the \"ice\" scenario is starting to look more likely, and could result in a more destructive outcome – i.e. a 20%+ correction. As a result,   <b>we continue to recommend a barbell of more defensively oriented quality (Healthcare and Staples) to protect from the \"ice\" scenario while keeping a leg in Financials to participate in the \"fire\" outcome as higher rates materialize.</b>  And just so it was clear that Wilson stubbornly refused to join the bullish bandwagon, he said that \"with our year end target 10% below current levels, our view is clear: the mid-cycle transition will end with the rolling correction finally hitting the S&amp;P 500.\"</p><p><blockquote>典型的周期中期“火灾”结果将导致标普500出现适度而健康的 10% 修正。然而，“冰”情景开始看起来更有可能，并可能导致更具破坏性的结果——即20%以上的修正。结果，<b>我们继续推荐更具防御性的杠铃（医疗保健和主食），以防范“冰”情景，同时在金融领域保持优势，以在利率上升时参与“火”结果。</b>就在威尔逊显然顽固地拒绝加入看涨行列之际，他表示，“由于我们的年终目标比当前水平低 10%，我们的观点很明确：周期中期转型将随着滚动调整最终触及标普500而结束。”</blockquote></p><p> Fast forward to today when with stocks once again barreling higher, Wilson doubled down on his bearish view and in the latest Morgan Stanley strategy data pack, writes that \"<b>we are now calling for Fire AND Ice.\"</b>Here, he again recaps the two possible mid-cycle correction outcomes he had been envisioning:</p><p><blockquote>快进到今天，随着股市再次飙升，威尔逊加倍强调了他的看跌观点，并在最新的摩根士丹利策略数据包中写道，“<b>我们现在呼唤火与冰。”</b>在这里，他再次概述了他一直设想的两种可能的周期中期修正结果：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Fire:</b>tightening financial conditions as the Fed signals tapering is coming</li>  <li><b>Ice:</b>growth disappointment particularly on the earnings side</li> </ul> And so, in a reversal from what he said last month, Wilson now thinks<b>\"it’s increasingly likely these scenarios happen together and we get a &gt;10% correction.</b>The Fed will likely announce its taper plans at its next FOMC meeting just as we expect a disappointment in earnings to materialize.\"</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>火：</b>随着美联储发出缩减规模的信号，金融状况收紧</li><li><b>冰：</b>增长令人失望，尤其是在盈利方面</li></ul>因此，与他上个月所说的相反，威尔逊现在认为<b>“这些情况同时发生的可能性越来越大，我们会得到超过 10% 的修正。</b>美联储可能会在下一次联邦公开市场委员会会议上宣布缩减规模计划，而我们预计盈利将令人失望。”</blockquote></p><p> And since much digital ink has been spilled discussing the impact of the coming taper, we will focus on his second warning, namely the coming trouble for corporate earnings, which echoes what we said more than a month ago...</p><p><blockquote>由于在讨论即将到来的缩减的影响时已经有很多数字墨水泄露，我们将重点关注他的第二个警告，即即将到来的企业盈利麻烦，这与我们一个多月前所说的相呼应……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35ca94354b7552e106b3d35a4245e356\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> ... and which Wilson distills simply as \"Earnings Trouble Ahead.\"</p><p><blockquote>...威尔逊将其简单地概括为“未来的盈利问题”。</blockquote></p><p> Here, the strategist points to the large number of companies flagging serious supply chain issues in off-cycle earnings reports over the past month and notes that \"<b>both forward earnings estimates and price de-rated after many of these reports.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>在这里，这位策略师指出，大量公司在过去一个月的非周期收益报告中标记了严重的供应链问题，并指出“<b>在许多此类报告发布后，远期盈利预期和价格均被下调。”</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be884d8276f2170f18ee79f621c647a1\" tg-width=\"1085\" tg-height=\"729\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Jumping to the punchline, Wilson thinks this will be a pervasive dynamic during 3Q reporting season and it will \"<b>trigger downside in earnings revisions at the index level - a headwind for price.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>跳到笑点，威尔逊认为这将是第三季度报告季节普遍存在的动态，并且将“<b>在指数水平上引发盈利修正的下行空间——对价格构成阻力。”</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c39e1bbced9475fd293f9d4ed624a7e\" tg-width=\"1104\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Finally, looking beyond 3Q, he sees the earnings risk coming more from<b>(1) the inability of companies to pass on pricing (2) margin risk related more to higher wages and (3) a reversion (lower) in goods consumption.</b></p><p><blockquote>最后，展望第三季度之后，他认为盈利风险更多地来自<b>（1）公司无法转嫁定价（2）利润风险更多地与更高的工资和（3）商品消费的回归（降低）有关。</b></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley Doubles Down On Doom: Calls For \"Fire And Ice\" Correction<blockquote>摩根士丹利加倍押注《毁灭战士：评级》进行“火与冰”修正</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-08 23:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande default contagtion (which certainly remains on the table), Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilsontook the opportunityto pour some fuel on the fire, or rather \"ice\", and warned that odds of a \"destructive\" 20% correction are rising.</p><p><blockquote>三周前，由于对恒大违约蔓延的担忧（这当然仍然存在），市场陷入了短暂但急剧的抛售，摩根士丹利的迈克·威尔逊借此机会火上浇油，或者更确切地说是“冰”，并警告说，“破坏性”20% 修正的可能性正在上升。</blockquote></p><p> As a reminder, for much of the summer, Wilson had been predicting that the current market meltup would end either in \"fire\", i.e. a sharp market correction...</p><p><blockquote>提醒一下，在今年夏天的大部分时间里，威尔逊一直预测当前的市场融化要么会以“火”告终，即市场大幅调整……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7ed4becb4b4add1c291379068668ca7\" tg-width=\"1123\" tg-height=\"660\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> or or \"Ice\", with consumer spending grinding to a halt...</p><p><blockquote>或者“冰”，消费者支出陷入停滞……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83d20b93fac562ec12c5371ce0cec674\" tg-width=\"1130\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Pointing to his two gloomy predictions during the \"Evergrande Monday\" plunge, Wilson wrote that \"the ice scenario would be worse for markets<b>and we are leaning in that direction</b>given the fall in consumer confidence and reset lower in PMIs we expect.\" This is what he said, in the context of his longer running thesis that the \"mid-cycle\" is about to have a painful correction as we gradually transition into late cycle:</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊指出了他在“恒大星期一”暴跌期间的两个悲观预测，他写道，“ice的情况对市场来说会更糟<b>我们正朝着那个方向发展</b>鉴于消费者信心下降以及我们预计采购经理人指数将再次走低。”这是他在长期论点的背景下所说的话，即随着我们逐渐过渡到周期后期，“周期中期”即将进行痛苦的修正：</blockquote></p><p>   The typical mid-cycle \"fire\" outcome would lead to a modest and healthy 10% correction in the S&amp;P 500. However, the \"ice\" scenario is starting to look more likely, and could result in a more destructive outcome – i.e. a 20%+ correction. As a result,   <b>we continue to recommend a barbell of more defensively oriented quality (Healthcare and Staples) to protect from the \"ice\" scenario while keeping a leg in Financials to participate in the \"fire\" outcome as higher rates materialize.</b>  And just so it was clear that Wilson stubbornly refused to join the bullish bandwagon, he said that \"with our year end target 10% below current levels, our view is clear: the mid-cycle transition will end with the rolling correction finally hitting the S&amp;P 500.\"</p><p><blockquote>典型的周期中期“火灾”结果将导致标普500出现适度而健康的 10% 修正。然而，“冰”情景开始看起来更有可能，并可能导致更具破坏性的结果——即20%以上的修正。结果，<b>我们继续推荐更具防御性的杠铃（医疗保健和主食），以防范“冰”情景，同时在金融领域保持优势，以在利率上升时参与“火”结果。</b>就在威尔逊显然顽固地拒绝加入看涨行列之际，他表示，“由于我们的年终目标比当前水平低 10%，我们的观点很明确：周期中期转型将随着滚动调整最终触及标普500而结束。”</blockquote></p><p> Fast forward to today when with stocks once again barreling higher, Wilson doubled down on his bearish view and in the latest Morgan Stanley strategy data pack, writes that \"<b>we are now calling for Fire AND Ice.\"</b>Here, he again recaps the two possible mid-cycle correction outcomes he had been envisioning:</p><p><blockquote>快进到今天，随着股市再次飙升，威尔逊加倍强调了他的看跌观点，并在最新的摩根士丹利策略数据包中写道，“<b>我们现在呼唤火与冰。”</b>在这里，他再次概述了他一直设想的两种可能的周期中期修正结果：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Fire:</b>tightening financial conditions as the Fed signals tapering is coming</li>  <li><b>Ice:</b>growth disappointment particularly on the earnings side</li> </ul> And so, in a reversal from what he said last month, Wilson now thinks<b>\"it’s increasingly likely these scenarios happen together and we get a &gt;10% correction.</b>The Fed will likely announce its taper plans at its next FOMC meeting just as we expect a disappointment in earnings to materialize.\"</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>火：</b>随着美联储发出缩减规模的信号，金融状况收紧</li><li><b>冰：</b>增长令人失望，尤其是在盈利方面</li></ul>因此，与他上个月所说的相反，威尔逊现在认为<b>“这些情况同时发生的可能性越来越大，我们会得到超过 10% 的修正。</b>美联储可能会在下一次联邦公开市场委员会会议上宣布缩减规模计划，而我们预计盈利将令人失望。”</blockquote></p><p> And since much digital ink has been spilled discussing the impact of the coming taper, we will focus on his second warning, namely the coming trouble for corporate earnings, which echoes what we said more than a month ago...</p><p><blockquote>由于在讨论即将到来的缩减的影响时已经有很多数字墨水泄露，我们将重点关注他的第二个警告，即即将到来的企业盈利麻烦，这与我们一个多月前所说的相呼应……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35ca94354b7552e106b3d35a4245e356\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> ... and which Wilson distills simply as \"Earnings Trouble Ahead.\"</p><p><blockquote>...威尔逊将其简单地概括为“未来的盈利问题”。</blockquote></p><p> Here, the strategist points to the large number of companies flagging serious supply chain issues in off-cycle earnings reports over the past month and notes that \"<b>both forward earnings estimates and price de-rated after many of these reports.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>在这里，这位策略师指出，大量公司在过去一个月的非周期收益报告中标记了严重的供应链问题，并指出“<b>在许多此类报告发布后，远期盈利预期和价格均被下调。”</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be884d8276f2170f18ee79f621c647a1\" tg-width=\"1085\" tg-height=\"729\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Jumping to the punchline, Wilson thinks this will be a pervasive dynamic during 3Q reporting season and it will \"<b>trigger downside in earnings revisions at the index level - a headwind for price.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>跳到笑点，威尔逊认为这将是第三季度报告季节普遍存在的动态，并且将“<b>在指数水平上引发盈利修正的下行空间——对价格构成阻力。”</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c39e1bbced9475fd293f9d4ed624a7e\" tg-width=\"1104\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Finally, looking beyond 3Q, he sees the earnings risk coming more from<b>(1) the inability of companies to pass on pricing (2) margin risk related more to higher wages and (3) a reversion (lower) in goods consumption.</b></p><p><blockquote>最后，展望第三季度之后，他认为盈利风险更多地来自<b>（1）公司无法转嫁定价（2）利润风险更多地与更高的工资和（3）商品消费的回归（降低）有关。</b></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-doubles-down-doom-calls-fire-and-ice-correction?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-doubles-down-doom-calls-fire-and-ice-correction?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195699682","content_text":"Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande default contagtion (which certainly remains on the table), Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilsontook the opportunityto pour some fuel on the fire, or rather \"ice\", and warned that odds of a \"destructive\" 20% correction are rising.\nAs a reminder, for much of the summer, Wilson had been predicting that the current market meltup would end either in \"fire\", i.e. a sharp market correction...\n\nor or \"Ice\", with consumer spending grinding to a halt...\n\nPointing to his two gloomy predictions during the \"Evergrande Monday\" plunge, Wilson wrote that \"the ice scenario would be worse for marketsand we are leaning in that directiongiven the fall in consumer confidence and reset lower in PMIs we expect.\" This is what he said, in the context of his longer running thesis that the \"mid-cycle\" is about to have a painful correction as we gradually transition into late cycle:\n\n The typical mid-cycle \"fire\" outcome would lead to a modest and healthy 10% correction in the S&P 500. However, the \"ice\" scenario is starting to look more likely, and could result in a more destructive outcome – i.e. a 20%+ correction. As a result, \n we continue to recommend a barbell of more defensively oriented quality (Healthcare and Staples) to protect from the \"ice\" scenario while keeping a leg in Financials to participate in the \"fire\" outcome as higher rates materialize.\n\nAnd just so it was clear that Wilson stubbornly refused to join the bullish bandwagon, he said that \"with our year end target 10% below current levels, our view is clear: the mid-cycle transition will end with the rolling correction finally hitting the S&P 500.\"\nFast forward to today when with stocks once again barreling higher, Wilson doubled down on his bearish view and in the latest Morgan Stanley strategy data pack, writes that \"we are now calling for Fire AND Ice.\"Here, he again recaps the two possible mid-cycle correction outcomes he had been envisioning:\n\nFire:tightening financial conditions as the Fed signals tapering is coming\nIce:growth disappointment particularly on the earnings side\n\nAnd so, in a reversal from what he said last month, Wilson now thinks\"it’s increasingly likely these scenarios happen together and we get a >10% correction.The Fed will likely announce its taper plans at its next FOMC meeting just as we expect a disappointment in earnings to materialize.\"\nAnd since much digital ink has been spilled discussing the impact of the coming taper, we will focus on his second warning, namely the coming trouble for corporate earnings, which echoes what we said more than a month ago...\n\n... and which Wilson distills simply as \"Earnings Trouble Ahead.\"\nHere, the strategist points to the large number of companies flagging serious supply chain issues in off-cycle earnings reports over the past month and notes that \"both forward earnings estimates and price de-rated after many of these reports.\"\n\nJumping to the punchline, Wilson thinks this will be a pervasive dynamic during 3Q reporting season and it will \"trigger downside in earnings revisions at the index level - a headwind for price.\"\n\nFinally, looking beyond 3Q, he sees the earnings risk coming more from(1) the inability of companies to pass on pricing (2) margin risk related more to higher wages and (3) a reversion (lower) in goods consumption.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":338,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":820899565,"gmtCreate":1633363977763,"gmtModify":1633363978048,"author":{"id":"3579001256990264","authorId":"3579001256990264","name":"Mr Charles","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d164cdc2990dfc0f20ee4ab34dd84b7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579001256990264","idStr":"3579001256990264"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Facebook down","listText":"Facebook down","text":"Facebook down","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/820899565","repostId":"1192356894","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":415,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":863429351,"gmtCreate":1632413784973,"gmtModify":1632729528978,"author":{"id":"3579001256990264","authorId":"3579001256990264","name":"Mr Charles","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d164cdc2990dfc0f20ee4ab34dd84b7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579001256990264","idStr":"3579001256990264"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please like","listText":"Please like","text":"Please like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/863429351","repostId":"1150145468","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1150145468","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1632413106,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1150145468?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-24 00:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Sovos Brands opens for trading at $14.7, up about 22% from IPO price<blockquote>Sovos Brands 开盘价为 14.7 美元，较 IPO 价格上涨约 22%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150145468","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(Sept 23) Sovos Brands, Inc. opens for trading at $14.7, up about 22% from IPO price.","content":"<p>(Sept 23)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOVO\">Sovos Brands, Inc.</a> opens for trading at $14.7, up about 22% from IPO price.</p><p><blockquote>（9月23日）<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOVO\">索沃斯品牌公司。</a>开盘价为 14.7 美元，较 IPO 价格上涨约 22%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4cf35300eb72dc44987635c428fb00b\" tg-width=\"905\" tg-height=\"545\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sovos Brands opens for trading at $14.7, up about 22% from IPO price<blockquote>Sovos Brands 开盘价为 14.7 美元，较 IPO 价格上涨约 22%</blockquote></title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSovos Brands opens for trading at $14.7, up about 22% from IPO price<blockquote>Sovos Brands 开盘价为 14.7 美元，较 IPO 价格上涨约 22%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-24 00:05</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Sept 23)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOVO\">Sovos Brands, Inc.</a> opens for trading at $14.7, up about 22% from IPO price.</p><p><blockquote>（9月23日）<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOVO\">索沃斯品牌公司。</a>开盘价为 14.7 美元，较 IPO 价格上涨约 22%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4cf35300eb72dc44987635c428fb00b\" tg-width=\"905\" tg-height=\"545\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SOVO":"Sovos Brands, Inc."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150145468","content_text":"(Sept 23) Sovos Brands, Inc. opens for trading at $14.7, up about 22% from IPO price.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SOVO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":372,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}