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zeeling

zeeling

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2021-10-11

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2021-08-20

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Toplines Before US Market Opens Friday<blockquote>周五美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote>

2021-07-26

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2021-11-15

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2021-11-02

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2021-10-24

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US IPO Week Ahead: Semiconductors, energy storage, designer apparel, and more in a 12 IPO week<blockquote>美国IPO周：12周IPO中的半导体、储能、设计师服装等</blockquote>

2021-10-08

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September Payrolls Preview: It Will Be A Beat, The Question Is How Big<blockquote>9月就业预览：这将是一个节拍，问题是有多大</blockquote>

2021-08-29

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2021-06-28

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2021-11-13

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2021-10-03

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2021-04-02

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Lion? Lamb? March's best stocks, strategies into April<blockquote>狮子？羊羔？三月最佳股票、四月策略</blockquote>

2021-12-07

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2021-08-26

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2021-08-03

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2021-12-12

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2021-12-11

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2021-11-06

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2021-10-30

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2021-09-08

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Strategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?<blockquote>策略师表示，今年秋天股市可能会陷入困境。现在买什么？</blockquote>

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07:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Santa Claus Rally watch: What to know this week<blockquote>圣诞老人集会观察：本周需要了解什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2194177239","media":"Yahoo Finance","summary":"As traders return from the holiday-shortened week, the price action heading into the new year will be closely monitored — especially given the relatively light economic data and earnings calendar for the coming days.The S&P 500  is entering the period known for ushering in the so-called Santa Claus Rally, or seasonally strong timeframe for stocks at the end of each year.According to data from LPL Financial, the Santa Claus Rally period encapsulates the seven days most likely to be higher in any ","content":"<p><div> As traders return from the holiday-shortened week, the price action heading into the new year will be closely monitored — especially given the relatively light economic data and earnings calendar for ...</p><p><blockquote><div>随着交易员从假期缩短的一周中回归，进入新的一年的价格走势将受到密切关注——特别是考虑到相对清淡的经济数据和收益日历...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/santa-claus-rally-watch-what-to-know-this-week-142909627.html\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/santa-claus-rally-watch-what-to-know-this-week-142909627.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"yahoofinance_au","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Santa Claus Rally watch: What to know this week<blockquote>圣诞老人集会观察：本周需要了解什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSanta Claus Rally watch: What to know this week<blockquote>圣诞老人集会观察：本周需要了解什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Yahoo Finance</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-27 07:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> As traders return from the holiday-shortened week, the price action heading into the new year will be closely monitored — especially given the relatively light economic data and earnings calendar for ...</p><p><blockquote><div>随着交易员从假期缩短的一周中回归，进入新的一年的价格走势将受到密切关注——特别是考虑到相对清淡的经济数据和收益日历...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/santa-claus-rally-watch-what-to-know-this-week-142909627.html\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/santa-claus-rally-watch-what-to-know-this-week-142909627.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/santa-claus-rally-watch-what-to-know-this-week-142909627.html\">Yahoo Finance</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4541":"氢能源","BK4096":"电气部件与设备","SPY.AU":"SPDR® S&P 500® ETF Trust","FCEL":"燃料电池能源"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/santa-claus-rally-watch-what-to-know-this-week-142909627.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2194177239","content_text":"As traders return from the holiday-shortened week, the price action heading into the new year will be closely monitored — especially given the relatively light economic data and earnings calendar for the coming days.\nThe S&P 500 (^GSPC) is entering the period known for ushering in the so-called Santa Claus Rally, or seasonally strong timeframe for stocks at the end of each year.\nThe term, coined by Stock Trader's Almanac in the 1970s, encompasses the final five trading days of the year and first two sessions of the new year. This year, that Santa Claus Rally window is set to start on Monday, Dec. 27 — or the latest a Santa Claus rally has started in 11 years, due to the timing of the holidays this year.\nAccording to data from LPL Financial, the Santa Claus Rally period encapsulates the seven days most likely to be higher in any given year. Since 1950, the Santa Claus Rally period has produced a positive return for the S&P 500 78.9% of the time, with an average return of 1.33%.\n“Why are these seven days so strong?” wrote Ryan Detrick, LPL Financial chief market strategist, in a note. “Whether optimism over a coming new year, holiday spending, traders on vacation, institutions squaring up their books — or the holiday spirit — the bottom line is that bulls tend to believe in Santa.”\nAnd if history is any indication, the absence of a Santa Claus Rally has also typically served as a harbinger of lower near-term returns.\n\"Going back to the mid-1990s, there have been only six times Santa failed to show in December. January was lower five of those six times, and the full year had a solid gain only once (in 2016, but a mini-bear market early in the year),\" Detrick added.\n“Considering the bear markets of 2000 and 2008 both took place after one of the rare instances that Santa failed to show makes believers out of us,\" he said. A bear market typically refers to when stocks drop at least 20% from recent record highs. \"Should this seasonally strong period miss the mark, it could be a warning sign.\"\nAnd this year, investors do have considerable additional concerns to mull heading into the new year. Though stocks closed out Thursday's session at fresh record highs before the long holiday weekend, December still marked a volatile month to start, with renewed concerns over the Omicron variant and the potential for tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve weighing on risk assets. Plus, prospects for more near-term fiscal support via the Biden administration's Build Back Better bill have dwindled, and inflation concerns spiked further. Last week, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — rose at a 4.7% year-over-year clip, or the fastest since 1983.\n\"If the U.S. was not battling the Omicron variant, U.S. stocks would be dancing higher as the Santa Claus Rally would have kept the climb going into uncharted territory,\" Edward Moya, chief market strategist at OANDA, wrote in a note last week. \"It is too early to say for sure if we will get a Santa Claus Rally, but given all the short-term risks of Fed tightening, Chinese weakness, fiscal support uncertainty and COVID, Wall Street is not complaining.\"\nA man in a Santa Claus costume gestures on the floor at the closing bell of the Dow Industrial Average at the New York Stock Exchange on December 5, 2019 in New York. (Photo by Bryan R. Smith / AFP) (Photo by BRYAN R. SMITH/AFP via Getty Images)BRYAN R. SMITH via Getty Images\nEconomic calendar\n\nMonday: Dallas Federal Reserve Manufacturing Activity Index, Dec. (13.0 expected, 11.8 in November)\nTuesday: FHFA House Price Index, month-over-month, October (0.9% in September); S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20 City Composite Index, month-over-month, October (0.9% expected, 0.96% in September); S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20 City Composite Index, year-over-year, October (18.6%. expected, 19.05% in September); S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index, year-over-year, November (19.51% in October); Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, December (11 expected,11 in November)\nWednesday: Wholesale Inventories, month-over-month, November preliminary (1.7% expected, 2.3% in October); Advance Goods Trade Balance, November (-$89.0 billion expected, -$82.9 billion in October); Retail Inventories, month-over-month, November (0.5% expected, 0.1% in October); Pending Home Sales, month-over-month, November (0.5% expected, 7.5% in October)\nThursday: Initial jobless claims, week ended Dec. 25. (205,000 during prior week); Continuing claims, week ended Dec. 18 (1.859 million during prior week); MNI Chicago PMI, December (62.2 expected, 61.8 in November)\nFriday: No notable reports scheduled for release\n\nEarnings calendar\n\nMonday: No notable reports scheduled for release\nTuesday: No notable reports scheduled for release\nWednesday: FuelCell Energy Inc. (FCEL) before market open\nThursday: No notable reports scheduled for release\nFriday: No notable reports scheduled for release","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"FCEL":0.9,"SPY.AU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2384,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":698408785,"gmtCreate":1640483927248,"gmtModify":1640484118089,"author":{"id":"3578196134540225","authorId":"3578196134540225","name":"zeeling","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/901d745faf2cd5225a6dbed44ad6236a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578196134540225","idStr":"3578196134540225"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698408785","repostId":"1189584434","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1189584434","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640481521,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1189584434?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-26 09:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Roche at-home COVID test granted FDA Emergency Use Authorization<blockquote>罗氏家庭新冠检测获得FDA紧急使用授权</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189584434","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"The FDA has grantedEmergency Use Authorization to Roche's(OTCQX:RHHBY) COVID-19 at-home test.\nThe te","content":"<p><ul>  <li>The FDA has grantedEmergency Use Authorization to Roche's(OTCQX:RHHBY) COVID-19 at-home test.</li>  <li>The test uses a nasal swab and&nbsp;provides results in as little as 20 minutes.</li>  <li>The test will become available next month. Roche says that it will be able to produce \"tens of millions\" of tests per month.</li>  <li>In a study, the Roche test had a relative sensitivity of 95.3% and a relative specificity of 100%.</li>  <li>Earlier this week, President Biden said the federal government would&nbsp;start distributing 500M at-home tests in January.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>FDA已向罗氏(OTCQX：RHHBY)的COVID-19家庭测试授予紧急使用授权。</li><li>该测试使用鼻拭子，并在短短20分钟内提供结果。</li><li>该测试将于下个月推出。罗氏表示，它每月将能够生产“数千万”份测试。</li><li>在一项研究中，罗氏试验的相对敏感性为95.3%，相对特异性为100%。</li><li>本周早些时候，拜登总统表示，联邦政府将在1月份开始分发5亿份家庭测试。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1638401102509","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Roche at-home COVID test granted FDA Emergency Use Authorization<blockquote>罗氏家庭新冠检测获得FDA紧急使用授权</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRoche at-home COVID test granted FDA Emergency Use Authorization<blockquote>罗氏家庭新冠检测获得FDA紧急使用授权</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-26 09:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><ul>  <li>The FDA has grantedEmergency Use Authorization to Roche's(OTCQX:RHHBY) COVID-19 at-home test.</li>  <li>The test uses a nasal swab and&nbsp;provides results in as little as 20 minutes.</li>  <li>The test will become available next month. Roche says that it will be able to produce \"tens of millions\" of tests per month.</li>  <li>In a study, the Roche test had a relative sensitivity of 95.3% and a relative specificity of 100%.</li>  <li>Earlier this week, President Biden said the federal government would&nbsp;start distributing 500M at-home tests in January.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>FDA已向罗氏(OTCQX：RHHBY)的COVID-19家庭测试授予紧急使用授权。</li><li>该测试使用鼻拭子，并在短短20分钟内提供结果。</li><li>该测试将于下个月推出。罗氏表示，它每月将能够生产“数千万”份测试。</li><li>在一项研究中，罗氏试验的相对敏感性为95.3%，相对特异性为100%。</li><li>本周早些时候，拜登总统表示，联邦政府将在1月份开始分发5亿份家庭测试。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3783328-roche-at-home-covid-test-granted-fda-emergency-use-authorization\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"RHHBY":"罗氏控股"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3783328-roche-at-home-covid-test-granted-fda-emergency-use-authorization","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189584434","content_text":"The FDA has grantedEmergency Use Authorization to Roche's(OTCQX:RHHBY) COVID-19 at-home test.\nThe test uses a nasal swab and provides results in as little as 20 minutes.\nThe test will become available next month. Roche says that it will be able to produce \"tens of millions\" of tests per month.\nIn a study, the Roche test had a relative sensitivity of 95.3% and a relative specificity of 100%.\nEarlier this week, President Biden said the federal government would start distributing 500M at-home tests in January.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"RHHBY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2311,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":698408674,"gmtCreate":1640483890762,"gmtModify":1640484116953,"author":{"id":"3578196134540225","authorId":"3578196134540225","name":"zeeling","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/901d745faf2cd5225a6dbed44ad6236a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578196134540225","idStr":"3578196134540225"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I see","listText":"I see","text":"I see","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698408674","repostId":"1123414772","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123414772","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640483546,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1123414772?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-26 09:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why It’s Not the Time to Buy the Dip on Upstart<blockquote>为什么现在不是逢低买入Upstart的时候</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123414772","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"Upstart (UPST)as a concept is extraordinary in my eyes because it assigns credit ratings with a much","content":"<p><div> Upstart (UPST)as a concept is extraordinary in my eyes because it assigns credit ratings with a much more forward-looking approach than traditional loan facilitators do. Furthermore, the AI used by ...</p><p><blockquote><div>在我看来，新贵（UPST）是一个非常非凡的概念，因为它赋予信用评级的方法比传统贷款促进者更为前瞻性。此外，使用的人工智能...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/upst-stock-upstart-why-its-not-the-time-to-buy-the-dip/\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/upst-stock-upstart-why-its-not-the-time-to-buy-the-dip/\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why It’s Not the Time to Buy the Dip on Upstart<blockquote>为什么现在不是逢低买入Upstart的时候</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy It’s Not the Time to Buy the Dip on Upstart<blockquote>为什么现在不是逢低买入Upstart的时候</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">InvestorPlace</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-26 09:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Upstart (UPST)as a concept is extraordinary in my eyes because it assigns credit ratings with a much more forward-looking approach than traditional loan facilitators do. Furthermore, the AI used by ...</p><p><blockquote><div>在我看来，新贵（UPST）是一个非常非凡的概念，因为它赋予信用评级的方法比传统贷款促进者更为前瞻性。此外，使用的人工智能...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/upst-stock-upstart-why-its-not-the-time-to-buy-the-dip/\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/upst-stock-upstart-why-its-not-the-time-to-buy-the-dip/\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/upst-stock-upstart-why-its-not-the-time-to-buy-the-dip/\">InvestorPlace</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"UPST":"Upstart Holdings, Inc."},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/upst-stock-upstart-why-its-not-the-time-to-buy-the-dip/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123414772","content_text":"Upstart (UPST)as a concept is extraordinary in my eyes because it assigns credit ratings with a much more forward-looking approach than traditional loan facilitators do. Furthermore, the AI used by the firm is flawless, with speed and accuracy being the name of the game.\nHowever, as an investor, it’s critical to remind yourself that you’re investing in a stock and not only the company’s concept, which means that we need to determine whether its potential is priced-in or not.\nNext year’s market climate will be much different than it’s been the past 2-years. I, for one, expect a more price-efficient market, which means that investors will need to start distinguishing good companies from undervalued stock prices if they’re to realize gains.\nUPST stock could be a prime example of how a good company doesn’t always translate into a good stock.\nUPST stock Won’t Benefit From the Cyclical Trade\nMost of you would’ve heard about the rate hike buzz by now and how that will stimulate banking stocks. The theory behind this is that if the U.S. Federal Reserve raises interest rates, the debt market will be more lucrative to originators as the spreads they’d be able to charge on loans will increase.\nUpstart won’t necessarily benefit from this climate as it’s considered a hybrid between an advertising platform and a brokerage rather than a lender. This means that its revenue will actually decrease with higher rates because the transactional volume will likely taper off slightly as soon as rates rise.\nFurther to the above, Upstart is a growth stock rather than a value play. Rising interest rates in 2022 could be detrimental to growth stocks as it tends to flatline their exponential earnings growth curve.\nUpstart’s revenue and EBITDA surged over the past year, coming in at187.56% and 447.28%respectively; these figures will likely diminish over the coming year, and I can’t help but think that the stock’s recent drawdown has been the market’s way of pricing in the expected decline in growth for next year.\nA final matter to mention regarding cyclicality isJ.P. Morgan’s recent neutral rating on the stock, with analyst James Faucette using a similar argument to mine in claiming that the stock’s growth has been priced in for now. Faucette thinks that Upstart’s relationship with its investors has enabled it to perform well in 2021, but the current market climate won’t allow that to sustain itself.\nValuation & Momentum\nLet’s start with the latter to provide context to the valuation argument. Upstart’s relative strength index (RSI) is below30, indicating that the stock has been oversold, but this doesn’t necessarily mean that it’s a “buy the dip opportunity.”\nFor this to really be a buy low, sell high opportunity, we’d need to see an uptick in volume and a sign that the stock’s going to breach its moving averages; as of now UPST stock possesses neither of these attributes, and I believe that it’s due to a valuation issue.\nHere’s the big valuation problem; by comparing Upstart stock to its sector peers, it can be observed through price-sales and price-cash flow premiums of3.47x and 4.46xthat investors have gotten ahead of themselves. Adding to this is the argument that the stock could be the victim of a cyclical downturn, meaning that these ratios could play a key role in investor sell-offs moving forward.\nWhat now for UPST stock?\nA few investors are likely to buy into the recent dip, but I don’t think it will prevent a further downward trajectory. UPST stock has a massive valuation issue induced by over-optimism from investors during a pent-up broader market.\nFurthermore, the market’s set for a cyclical swing as monetary policy changes are en route, and Upstart stock’s characteristics mean that it could be a victim of such policies instead of being a beneficiary.\nThe bottom line is that the stock isn’t worth the risk right 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06:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nike, Micron, BlackBerry, CarMax, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>Nike、Micron、黑莓、CarMax等本周值得投资者关注的股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130704419","media":"Barrons","summary":"Stock and bond markets around the world will be closed Friday in observance of Christmas. Before the holiday break,Nike and Micron Technology report on Monday,BlackBerry and General Mills on Tuesday, and CarMax,Cintas,and Paychex on Wednesday.It will be a busy week of economic data releases. On Monday, the Conference Board publishes its Leading Economic Index for November, followed by its Consumer Confidence Index for December on Wednesday.On Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reports per","content":"<p>Stock and bond markets around the world will be closed Friday in observance of Christmas. Before the holiday&nbsp;break,Nike&nbsp;and&nbsp;Micron Technology&nbsp;report on Monday,BlackBerry&nbsp;and&nbsp;General Mills&nbsp;on Tuesday, and&nbsp;CarMax,Cintas,and&nbsp;Paychex&nbsp;on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>世界各地的股票和债券市场将于周五休市以庆祝圣诞节。假期前，Nike和Micron Technology将于周一发布报告，黑莓和通用磨坊将于周二发布报告，CarMax、Cintas和Paychex将于周三发布报告。</blockquote></p><p> It will be a busy week of economic data releases. On Monday, the&nbsp;Conference Board publishes its Leading Economic Index for November, followed&nbsp;by its Consumer Confidence Index for December on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>这将是经济数据发布繁忙的一周。周一，世界大型企业联合会将公布11月份领先经济指数，随后将于周三公布12月份消费者信心指数。</blockquote></p><p> On Thursday, the&nbsp;Bureau of Economic Analysis reports personal income and consumption expenditures for November. Consumer earnings are forecast to have risen 0.6% while spending is seen climbing 0.5%. The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, the core&nbsp;PCE price index, is expected to have spiked 4.5% in November.</p><p><blockquote>周四，经济分析局将公布11月份个人收入和消费支出。消费者收入预计将增长0.6%，而支出预计将增长0.5%。美联储首选的通胀指标核心PCE物价指数预计11月份将飙升4.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Also Thursday, the Census Bureau releases the durable goods report for November, which will provide a window into investment spending in the economy. New orders are forecast to have risen 2.1%. Housing-market indicators out this week include existing-home sales for November on Wednesday and new-home sales for November on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>同样在周四，人口普查局发布了11月份耐用品报告，这将为了解经济中的投资支出提供一个窗口。新订单预计将增长2.1%。本周公布的房地产市场指标包括周三公布的11月份现房销售和周四公布的11月份新房销售。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Monday 12/20</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期一12/20</b></blockquote></p><p> Micron Technology and Nike report quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>美光科技和耐克公布季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Conference Board</b> releases its Leading Economic Index for November. Consensus estimate is for a 119 reading, which would be 0.6% more than October’s level. The Conference Board currently projects a 5% growth rate for fourth-quarter gross domestic product and a slower but still robust 2.6% for 2022.</p><p><blockquote><b>世界大型企业联合会</b>发布11月份领先经济指数。普遍估计读数为119，比10月份的水平高出0.6%。世界大型企业联合会目前预计第四季度国内生产总值增长率为5%，2022年增长率较慢但仍强劲的2.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tuesday 12/21</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二12/21</b></blockquote></p><p> BlackBerry,FactSet Research Systems,and General Mills announce earnings.</p><p><blockquote>黑莓、FactSet Research Systems和通用磨坊公布财报。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wednesday 12/22</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三12/22</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The NAR reports</b> existing-home sales for November. Economists forecast a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.4 million homes sold, slightly more than in October and the highest since the beginning of the year.</p><p><blockquote><b>NAR报告</b>11月份现房销售。经济学家预测，经季节调整后的房屋销售量年率为640万套，略高于10月份，为年初以来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> CarMax, Cintas, and Paychex hold conference calls to discuss quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>CarMax、Cintas和Paychex评级召开会议讨论季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bureau of Economic</b> Analysis reports its third and final estimate for third-quarter GDP. Economists forecast a 2.1% seasonally adjusted annual growth rate, unchanged from November’s second estimate.</p><p><blockquote><b>经济局</b>分析报告了对第三季度GDP的第三次也是最终估计。经济学家预测，经季节调整后的年增长率为2.1%，与11月的第二次估计持平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Conference Board</b> releases its Consumer Confidence Index for December. Expectations are for a 110 reading, roughly even with the November data. The index is 15% lower than the postpandemic peak reached in June of this year, due to concerns about rising prices and, to a lesser degree, Covid-19 variants.</p><p><blockquote><b>世界大型企业联合会</b>发布12月份消费者信心指数。预期读数为110，与11月数据大致持平。该指数比今年6月达到的大流行后峰值低15%，原因是对价格上涨以及较小程度上对Covid-19变种的担忧。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Thursday 12/23</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四12/23</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Department of Labor</b> reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on Dec. 18. Jobless claims have averaged 225,667 a week in November and December, and have finally reached prepandemic levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工部</b>报告截至12月18日当周首次申请失业救济人数。11月和12月平均每周申请失业救济人数为225,667人，最终达到了大流行前的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau</b> reports new-home sales for November. Consensus estimate is for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 770,000 new single-family houses sold, 25,000 more than in October. The median sales price of new houses sold in October was $407,700, while the average sales price was $477,800—both record highs.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>报告11月份新房销售。市场普遍估计，经季节调整后的新单户住宅年增长率为77万套，比10月份增加2.5万套。10月份售出的新房销售价格中位数为40.77万美元，而平均销售价格为47.78万美元——均创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The BEA reports</b> personal income and consumption expenditures for November. Economists forecast a 0.6% monthly increase for income and 0.5% for consumption. This compares with gains for 0.5% and 1.3%, respectively, in October. The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE price index, jumped 4.1% year over year in October, the fastest rate since 1991. Predictions are for it to spike 4.6% in November.</p><p><blockquote><b>东亚银行报告</b>11月份个人收入和消费支出。经济学家预测收入每月增长0.6%，消费每月增长0.5%。相比之下，10月份的涨幅分别为0.5%和1.3%。美联储首选的通胀指标核心PCE价格指数10月份同比上涨4.1%，为1991年以来最快增速。预计11月份将飙升4.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau</b> releases the durable goods report for November. New orders for durable manufactured goods are expected to increase 2.1%, to $265.6 billion. Excluding transportation, new orders are seen gaining 0.6%, compared with a 0.5% rise in October.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>发布11月份耐用品报告。耐用品新订单预计将增长2.1%，达到2656亿美元。不包括运输，新订单预计将增长0.6%，而10月份为增长0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Friday 12/24</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期五12/24</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>U.S. equity</b>&nbsp;and fixed-income markets are closed in observance of Christmas.</p><p><blockquote><b>美国股票</b>固定收益市场因圣诞节而休市。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nike, Micron, BlackBerry, CarMax, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>Nike、Micron、黑莓、CarMax等本周值得投资者关注的股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNike, Micron, BlackBerry, CarMax, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>Nike、Micron、黑莓、CarMax等本周值得投资者关注的股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-20 06:39</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Stock and bond markets around the world will be closed Friday in observance of Christmas. Before the holiday&nbsp;break,Nike&nbsp;and&nbsp;Micron Technology&nbsp;report on Monday,BlackBerry&nbsp;and&nbsp;General Mills&nbsp;on Tuesday, and&nbsp;CarMax,Cintas,and&nbsp;Paychex&nbsp;on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>世界各地的股票和债券市场将于周五休市以庆祝圣诞节。假期前，Nike和Micron Technology将于周一发布报告，黑莓和通用磨坊将于周二发布报告，CarMax、Cintas和Paychex将于周三发布报告。</blockquote></p><p> It will be a busy week of economic data releases. On Monday, the&nbsp;Conference Board publishes its Leading Economic Index for November, followed&nbsp;by its Consumer Confidence Index for December on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>这将是经济数据发布繁忙的一周。周一，世界大型企业联合会将公布11月份领先经济指数，随后将于周三公布12月份消费者信心指数。</blockquote></p><p> On Thursday, the&nbsp;Bureau of Economic Analysis reports personal income and consumption expenditures for November. Consumer earnings are forecast to have risen 0.6% while spending is seen climbing 0.5%. The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, the core&nbsp;PCE price index, is expected to have spiked 4.5% in November.</p><p><blockquote>周四，经济分析局将公布11月份个人收入和消费支出。消费者收入预计将增长0.6%，而支出预计将增长0.5%。美联储首选的通胀指标核心PCE物价指数预计11月份将飙升4.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Also Thursday, the Census Bureau releases the durable goods report for November, which will provide a window into investment spending in the economy. New orders are forecast to have risen 2.1%. Housing-market indicators out this week include existing-home sales for November on Wednesday and new-home sales for November on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>同样在周四，人口普查局发布了11月份耐用品报告，这将为了解经济中的投资支出提供一个窗口。新订单预计将增长2.1%。本周公布的房地产市场指标包括周三公布的11月份现房销售和周四公布的11月份新房销售。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Monday 12/20</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期一12/20</b></blockquote></p><p> Micron Technology and Nike report quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>美光科技和耐克公布季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Conference Board</b> releases its Leading Economic Index for November. Consensus estimate is for a 119 reading, which would be 0.6% more than October’s level. The Conference Board currently projects a 5% growth rate for fourth-quarter gross domestic product and a slower but still robust 2.6% for 2022.</p><p><blockquote><b>世界大型企业联合会</b>发布11月份领先经济指数。普遍估计读数为119，比10月份的水平高出0.6%。世界大型企业联合会目前预计第四季度国内生产总值增长率为5%，2022年增长率较慢但仍强劲的2.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tuesday 12/21</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二12/21</b></blockquote></p><p> BlackBerry,FactSet Research Systems,and General Mills announce earnings.</p><p><blockquote>黑莓、FactSet Research Systems和通用磨坊公布财报。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wednesday 12/22</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三12/22</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The NAR reports</b> existing-home sales for November. Economists forecast a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.4 million homes sold, slightly more than in October and the highest since the beginning of the year.</p><p><blockquote><b>NAR报告</b>11月份现房销售。经济学家预测，经季节调整后的房屋销售量年率为640万套，略高于10月份，为年初以来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> CarMax, Cintas, and Paychex hold conference calls to discuss quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>CarMax、Cintas和Paychex评级召开会议讨论季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bureau of Economic</b> Analysis reports its third and final estimate for third-quarter GDP. Economists forecast a 2.1% seasonally adjusted annual growth rate, unchanged from November’s second estimate.</p><p><blockquote><b>经济局</b>分析报告了对第三季度GDP的第三次也是最终估计。经济学家预测，经季节调整后的年增长率为2.1%，与11月的第二次估计持平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Conference Board</b> releases its Consumer Confidence Index for December. Expectations are for a 110 reading, roughly even with the November data. The index is 15% lower than the postpandemic peak reached in June of this year, due to concerns about rising prices and, to a lesser degree, Covid-19 variants.</p><p><blockquote><b>世界大型企业联合会</b>发布12月份消费者信心指数。预期读数为110，与11月数据大致持平。该指数比今年6月达到的大流行后峰值低15%，原因是对价格上涨以及较小程度上对Covid-19变种的担忧。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Thursday 12/23</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四12/23</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Department of Labor</b> reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on Dec. 18. Jobless claims have averaged 225,667 a week in November and December, and have finally reached prepandemic levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工部</b>报告截至12月18日当周首次申请失业救济人数。11月和12月平均每周申请失业救济人数为225,667人，最终达到了大流行前的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau</b> reports new-home sales for November. Consensus estimate is for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 770,000 new single-family houses sold, 25,000 more than in October. The median sales price of new houses sold in October was $407,700, while the average sales price was $477,800—both record highs.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>报告11月份新房销售。市场普遍估计，经季节调整后的新单户住宅年增长率为77万套，比10月份增加2.5万套。10月份售出的新房销售价格中位数为40.77万美元，而平均销售价格为47.78万美元——均创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The BEA reports</b> personal income and consumption expenditures for November. Economists forecast a 0.6% monthly increase for income and 0.5% for consumption. This compares with gains for 0.5% and 1.3%, respectively, in October. The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE price index, jumped 4.1% year over year in October, the fastest rate since 1991. Predictions are for it to spike 4.6% in November.</p><p><blockquote><b>东亚银行报告</b>11月份个人收入和消费支出。经济学家预测收入每月增长0.6%，消费每月增长0.5%。相比之下，10月份的涨幅分别为0.5%和1.3%。美联储首选的通胀指标核心PCE价格指数10月份同比上涨4.1%，为1991年以来最快增速。预计11月份将飙升4.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau</b> releases the durable goods report for November. New orders for durable manufactured goods are expected to increase 2.1%, to $265.6 billion. Excluding transportation, new orders are seen gaining 0.6%, compared with a 0.5% rise in October.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>发布11月份耐用品报告。耐用品新订单预计将增长2.1%，达到2656亿美元。不包括运输，新订单预计将增长0.6%，而10月份为增长0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Friday 12/24</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期五12/24</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>U.S. equity</b>&nbsp;and fixed-income markets are closed in observance of Christmas.</p><p><blockquote><b>美国股票</b>固定收益市场因圣诞节而休市。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/nike-micron-blackberry-carmax-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51639944183?mod=hp_LEAD_5\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"KMX":"车美仕","GIS":"通用磨坊",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","CTAS":"信达思","PAYX":"沛齐",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","MU":"美光科技"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/nike-micron-blackberry-carmax-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51639944183?mod=hp_LEAD_5","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130704419","content_text":"Stock and bond markets around the world will be closed Friday in observance of Christmas. Before the holiday break,Nike and Micron Technology report on Monday,BlackBerry and General Mills on Tuesday, and CarMax,Cintas,and Paychex on Wednesday.\nIt will be a busy week of economic data releases. On Monday, the Conference Board publishes its Leading Economic Index for November, followed by its Consumer Confidence Index for December on Wednesday.\nOn Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reports personal income and consumption expenditures for November. Consumer earnings are forecast to have risen 0.6% while spending is seen climbing 0.5%. The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, the core PCE price index, is expected to have spiked 4.5% in November.\nAlso Thursday, the Census Bureau releases the durable goods report for November, which will provide a window into investment spending in the economy. New orders are forecast to have risen 2.1%. Housing-market indicators out this week include existing-home sales for November on Wednesday and new-home sales for November on Thursday.\nMonday 12/20\nMicron Technology and Nike report quarterly results.\nThe Conference Board releases its Leading Economic Index for November. Consensus estimate is for a 119 reading, which would be 0.6% more than October’s level. The Conference Board currently projects a 5% growth rate for fourth-quarter gross domestic product and a slower but still robust 2.6% for 2022.\nTuesday 12/21\nBlackBerry,FactSet Research Systems,and General Mills announce earnings.\nWednesday 12/22\nThe NAR reports existing-home sales for November. Economists forecast a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.4 million homes sold, slightly more than in October and the highest since the beginning of the year.\nCarMax, Cintas, and Paychex hold conference calls to discuss quarterly results.\nThe Bureau of Economic Analysis reports its third and final estimate for third-quarter GDP. Economists forecast a 2.1% seasonally adjusted annual growth rate, unchanged from November’s second estimate.\nThe Conference Board releases its Consumer Confidence Index for December. Expectations are for a 110 reading, roughly even with the November data. The index is 15% lower than the postpandemic peak reached in June of this year, due to concerns about rising prices and, to a lesser degree, Covid-19 variants.\nThursday 12/23\nThe Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on Dec. 18. Jobless claims have averaged 225,667 a week in November and December, and have finally reached prepandemic levels.\nThe Census Bureau reports new-home sales for November. Consensus estimate is for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 770,000 new single-family houses sold, 25,000 more than in October. The median sales price of new houses sold in October was $407,700, while the average sales price was $477,800—both record highs.\nThe BEA reports personal income and consumption expenditures for November. Economists forecast a 0.6% monthly increase for income and 0.5% for consumption. This compares with gains for 0.5% and 1.3%, respectively, in October. The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE price index, jumped 4.1% year over year in October, the fastest rate since 1991. Predictions are for it to spike 4.6% in November.\nThe Census Bureau releases the durable goods report for November. New orders for durable manufactured goods are expected to increase 2.1%, to $265.6 billion. Excluding transportation, new orders are seen gaining 0.6%, compared with a 0.5% rise in October.\nFriday 12/24\nU.S. equity and fixed-income markets are closed in observance of Christmas.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"GIS":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"MU":0.9,"KMX":0.9,"CTAS":0.9,"PAYX":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1249,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":699458001,"gmtCreate":1639880905700,"gmtModify":1639880906297,"author":{"id":"3578196134540225","authorId":"3578196134540225","name":"zeeling","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/901d745faf2cd5225a6dbed44ad6236a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578196134540225","idStr":"3578196134540225"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699458001","repostId":"2192903795","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1050,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":699667070,"gmtCreate":1639793741774,"gmtModify":1639793742393,"author":{"id":"3578196134540225","authorId":"3578196134540225","name":"zeeling","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/901d745faf2cd5225a6dbed44ad6236a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578196134540225","idStr":"3578196134540225"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699667070","repostId":"1116106959","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1116106959","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639785552,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1116106959?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-18 07:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wall Street ends down after mostly negative week<blockquote>华尔街在经历了大部分负面的一周后收盘下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116106959","media":"Reuters","summary":" - Wall Street finished lower on Friday, weighed down by Big Tech as investors worried about the Omicron coronavirus variant and digested the Federal Reserve's decision to end its pandemic-era stimulus faster.All three main U.S. stock indexes ended with a decline for the week after the Fed on Wednesday signaled three quarter-percentage-point interest rate hikes by the end of 2022 to combat surging inflation.Nvidia dropped 2.1% and Alphabet lost 1.9%, both weighing on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.The S","content":"<p>(Reuters) - Wall Street finished lower on Friday, weighed down by Big Tech as investors worried about the Omicron coronavirus variant and digested the Federal Reserve's decision to end its pandemic-era stimulus faster.</p><p><blockquote>（路透社）-华尔街周五收低，受大型科技股拖累，投资者担心奥密克戎冠状病毒变种，并更快消化美联储结束大流行时期刺激措施的决定。</blockquote></p><p> All three main U.S. stock indexes ended with a decline for the week after the Fed on Wednesday signaled three quarter-percentage-point interest rate hikes by the end of 2022 to combat surging inflation.</p><p><blockquote>在美联储周三暗示在2022年底前加息三次0.25个百分点以应对通胀飙升后，美国三大主要股指本周均收跌。</blockquote></p><p> Nvidia dropped 2.1% and Alphabet lost 1.9%, both weighing on the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达下跌2.1%，Alphabet下跌1.9%，均令标普500和纳斯达克承压。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 growth index lost 0.7% and the value index declined 1.4%.</p><p><blockquote>标普500增长指数下跌0.7%，价值指数下跌1.4%。</blockquote></p><p> All of the 11 major S&amp;P 500 sector indexes fell, with financials leading the way down with a 2.3% drop. Energy lost 2.2%.</p><p><blockquote>标普500 11大板块指数悉数下跌，金融股跌幅2.3%领跌。能源下跌2.2%。</blockquote></p><p> Adding to uncertainty, Pfizer said on Friday the pandemic could extend through next year. European countries geared up for further travel and social restrictions and a study warned that the rapidly spreading Omicron coronavirus variant was five times more likely to reinfect people than its predecessor, Delta.</p><p><blockquote>辉瑞周五表示，疫情可能会持续到明年，这增加了不确定性。欧洲国家为进一步的旅行和社会限制做好了准备，一项研究警告说，迅速传播的奥密克戎冠状病毒变种重新感染人类的可能性是其前身达美航空的五倍。</blockquote></p><p> Traders also pointed to year-end tax selling and the simultaneous expiration of stock options, stock index futures and index options contracts - known as triple witching - as potential causes for volatility.</p><p><blockquote>交易员还指出，年终税收抛售以及股票期权、股指期货和指数期权合约同时到期——被称为三重巫术——是波动的潜在原因。</blockquote></p><p> \"It's a big options expiration day,\" said Joe Saluzzi, co-manager of trading at Themis Trading in Chatham, New Jersey. \"And now you draw on top of that some Omicron, and you've got volatility, and I think it creates a lot of uncertainty amongst investors. Where are you going to position for the end of the year?\"</p><p><blockquote>新泽西州查塔姆Themis Trading交易联席经理Joe Saluzzi表示：“这是一个重要的期权到期日。”“现在你在此基础上利用一些奥密克戎，就会出现波动，我认为这给投资者带来了很多不确定性。今年年底你打算在哪里定位？”</blockquote></p><p> Heavyweight growth stocks including Nvidia and Microsoft have outperformed the broader market in 2021, while the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index has surged about 35%. The benchmark S&amp;P 500 index gained around 23% in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>包括英伟达和微软在内的权重成长股在2021年的表现优于大盘，而费城SE半导体指数则飙升了约35%。基准标普500指数同期上涨约23%。</blockquote></p><p> In Friday's session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.48% to end at 35,365.44 points, while the S&amp;P 500 lost 1.03% to 4,620.64.</p><p><blockquote>周五交易中，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌1.48%，收于35,365.44点，标普500下跌1.03%，收于4,620.64点。</blockquote></p><p> The Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.07% to 15,169.68.</p><p><blockquote>纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.07%，至15,169.68点。</blockquote></p><p> On a positive note, the small-cap Russell 2000 index rallied 1% after having fallen more than 10% from a record high in early November.</p><p><blockquote>积极的一面是，小盘股罗素2000指数在从11月初的历史高点下跌超过10%后，上涨了1%。</blockquote></p><p> With options expiring, volume on U.S. exchanges jumped to 16.6 billion shares, far above the 11.9 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>随着期权到期，美国交易所的成交量跃升至166亿股，远高于过去20个交易日119亿股的平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> For the week, the S&amp;P 500 fell 1.9%, the Dow lost 1.7% and the Nasdaq declined 2.9%.</p><p><blockquote>本周，标普500下跌1.9%，道琼斯指数下跌1.7%，纳斯达克下跌2.9%。</blockquote></p><p> In Friday's session, Oracle tumbled 6.4% after the Wall Street Journal reported the enterprise software maker is in talks to buy electronic medical records company Cerner in a deal that could be valued at $30 billion. Shares of Cerner surged 12.9%.</p><p><blockquote>周五交易中，甲骨文股价下跌6.4%，此前《华尔街日报》报道称，这家企业软件制造商正在就收购电子医疗记录公司Cerner进行谈判，交易价值可能达到300亿美元。Cerner股价飙升12.9%。</blockquote></p><p> FedEx Corp rose almost 5% after the delivery firm reinstated its original fiscal 2022 forecast on Thursday, even as persistent labor woes chipped away profits.</p><p><blockquote>尽管持续的劳工困境削弱了利润，但联邦快递公司周四恢复了最初的2022财年预测，该公司股价上涨近5%。</blockquote></p><p> Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.50-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.16-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所下跌股与上涨股的比例为1.50比1；在纳斯达克，1.16比1的比率有利于上涨者。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 posted 22 new 52-week highs and seven new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 28 new highs and 341 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下22个52周新高和7个新低；纳斯达克综合指数录得28个新高和341个新低。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street ends down after mostly negative week<blockquote>华尔街在经历了大部分负面的一周后收盘下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street ends down after mostly negative week<blockquote>华尔街在经历了大部分负面的一周后收盘下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-18 07:59</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Reuters) - Wall Street finished lower on Friday, weighed down by Big Tech as investors worried about the Omicron coronavirus variant and digested the Federal Reserve's decision to end its pandemic-era stimulus faster.</p><p><blockquote>（路透社）-华尔街周五收低，受大型科技股拖累，投资者担心奥密克戎冠状病毒变种，并更快消化美联储结束大流行时期刺激措施的决定。</blockquote></p><p> All three main U.S. stock indexes ended with a decline for the week after the Fed on Wednesday signaled three quarter-percentage-point interest rate hikes by the end of 2022 to combat surging inflation.</p><p><blockquote>在美联储周三暗示在2022年底前加息三次0.25个百分点以应对通胀飙升后，美国三大主要股指本周均收跌。</blockquote></p><p> Nvidia dropped 2.1% and Alphabet lost 1.9%, both weighing on the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达下跌2.1%，Alphabet下跌1.9%，均令标普500和纳斯达克承压。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 growth index lost 0.7% and the value index declined 1.4%.</p><p><blockquote>标普500增长指数下跌0.7%，价值指数下跌1.4%。</blockquote></p><p> All of the 11 major S&amp;P 500 sector indexes fell, with financials leading the way down with a 2.3% drop. Energy lost 2.2%.</p><p><blockquote>标普500 11大板块指数悉数下跌，金融股跌幅2.3%领跌。能源下跌2.2%。</blockquote></p><p> Adding to uncertainty, Pfizer said on Friday the pandemic could extend through next year. European countries geared up for further travel and social restrictions and a study warned that the rapidly spreading Omicron coronavirus variant was five times more likely to reinfect people than its predecessor, Delta.</p><p><blockquote>辉瑞周五表示，疫情可能会持续到明年，这增加了不确定性。欧洲国家为进一步的旅行和社会限制做好了准备，一项研究警告说，迅速传播的奥密克戎冠状病毒变种重新感染人类的可能性是其前身达美航空的五倍。</blockquote></p><p> Traders also pointed to year-end tax selling and the simultaneous expiration of stock options, stock index futures and index options contracts - known as triple witching - as potential causes for volatility.</p><p><blockquote>交易员还指出，年终税收抛售以及股票期权、股指期货和指数期权合约同时到期——被称为三重巫术——是波动的潜在原因。</blockquote></p><p> \"It's a big options expiration day,\" said Joe Saluzzi, co-manager of trading at Themis Trading in Chatham, New Jersey. \"And now you draw on top of that some Omicron, and you've got volatility, and I think it creates a lot of uncertainty amongst investors. Where are you going to position for the end of the year?\"</p><p><blockquote>新泽西州查塔姆Themis Trading交易联席经理Joe Saluzzi表示：“这是一个重要的期权到期日。”“现在你在此基础上利用一些奥密克戎，就会出现波动，我认为这给投资者带来了很多不确定性。今年年底你打算在哪里定位？”</blockquote></p><p> Heavyweight growth stocks including Nvidia and Microsoft have outperformed the broader market in 2021, while the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index has surged about 35%. The benchmark S&amp;P 500 index gained around 23% in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>包括英伟达和微软在内的权重成长股在2021年的表现优于大盘，而费城SE半导体指数则飙升了约35%。基准标普500指数同期上涨约23%。</blockquote></p><p> In Friday's session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.48% to end at 35,365.44 points, while the S&amp;P 500 lost 1.03% to 4,620.64.</p><p><blockquote>周五交易中，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌1.48%，收于35,365.44点，标普500下跌1.03%，收于4,620.64点。</blockquote></p><p> The Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.07% to 15,169.68.</p><p><blockquote>纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.07%，至15,169.68点。</blockquote></p><p> On a positive note, the small-cap Russell 2000 index rallied 1% after having fallen more than 10% from a record high in early November.</p><p><blockquote>积极的一面是，小盘股罗素2000指数在从11月初的历史高点下跌超过10%后，上涨了1%。</blockquote></p><p> With options expiring, volume on U.S. exchanges jumped to 16.6 billion shares, far above the 11.9 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>随着期权到期，美国交易所的成交量跃升至166亿股，远高于过去20个交易日119亿股的平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> For the week, the S&amp;P 500 fell 1.9%, the Dow lost 1.7% and the Nasdaq declined 2.9%.</p><p><blockquote>本周，标普500下跌1.9%，道琼斯指数下跌1.7%，纳斯达克下跌2.9%。</blockquote></p><p> In Friday's session, Oracle tumbled 6.4% after the Wall Street Journal reported the enterprise software maker is in talks to buy electronic medical records company Cerner in a deal that could be valued at $30 billion. Shares of Cerner surged 12.9%.</p><p><blockquote>周五交易中，甲骨文股价下跌6.4%，此前《华尔街日报》报道称，这家企业软件制造商正在就收购电子医疗记录公司Cerner进行谈判，交易价值可能达到300亿美元。Cerner股价飙升12.9%。</blockquote></p><p> FedEx Corp rose almost 5% after the delivery firm reinstated its original fiscal 2022 forecast on Thursday, even as persistent labor woes chipped away profits.</p><p><blockquote>尽管持续的劳工困境削弱了利润，但联邦快递公司周四恢复了最初的2022财年预测，该公司股价上涨近5%。</blockquote></p><p> Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.50-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.16-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所下跌股与上涨股的比例为1.50比1；在纳斯达克，1.16比1的比率有利于上涨者。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 posted 22 new 52-week highs and seven new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 28 new highs and 341 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下22个52周新高和7个新低；纳斯达克综合指数录得28个新高和341个新低。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-stocks-wall-street-ends-212015460.html\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-stocks-wall-street-ends-212015460.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116106959","content_text":"(Reuters) - Wall Street finished lower on Friday, weighed down by Big Tech as investors worried about the Omicron coronavirus variant and digested the Federal Reserve's decision to end its pandemic-era stimulus faster.\nAll three main U.S. stock indexes ended with a decline for the week after the Fed on Wednesday signaled three quarter-percentage-point interest rate hikes by the end of 2022 to combat surging inflation.\nNvidia dropped 2.1% and Alphabet lost 1.9%, both weighing on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.\nThe S&P 500 growth index lost 0.7% and the value index declined 1.4%.\nAll of the 11 major S&P 500 sector indexes fell, with financials leading the way down with a 2.3% drop. Energy lost 2.2%.\nAdding to uncertainty, Pfizer said on Friday the pandemic could extend through next year. European countries geared up for further travel and social restrictions and a study warned that the rapidly spreading Omicron coronavirus variant was five times more likely to reinfect people than its predecessor, Delta.\nTraders also pointed to year-end tax selling and the simultaneous expiration of stock options, stock index futures and index options contracts - known as triple witching - as potential causes for volatility.\n\"It's a big options expiration day,\" said Joe Saluzzi, co-manager of trading at Themis Trading in Chatham, New Jersey. \"And now you draw on top of that some Omicron, and you've got volatility, and I think it creates a lot of uncertainty amongst investors. Where are you going to position for the end of the year?\"\nHeavyweight growth stocks including Nvidia and Microsoft have outperformed the broader market in 2021, while the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index has surged about 35%. The benchmark S&P 500 index gained around 23% in the same period.\nIn Friday's session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.48% to end at 35,365.44 points, while the S&P 500 lost 1.03% to 4,620.64.\nThe Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.07% to 15,169.68.\nOn a positive note, the small-cap Russell 2000 index rallied 1% after having fallen more than 10% from a record high in early November.\nWith options expiring, volume on U.S. exchanges jumped to 16.6 billion shares, far above the 11.9 billion average over the last 20 trading days.\nFor the week, the S&P 500 fell 1.9%, the Dow lost 1.7% and the Nasdaq declined 2.9%.\nIn Friday's session, Oracle tumbled 6.4% after the Wall Street Journal reported the enterprise software maker is in talks to buy electronic medical records company Cerner in a deal that could be valued at $30 billion. Shares of Cerner surged 12.9%.\nFedEx Corp rose almost 5% after the delivery firm reinstated its original fiscal 2022 forecast on Thursday, even as persistent labor woes chipped away profits.\nDeclining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.50-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.16-to-1 ratio favored advancers.\nThe S&P 500 posted 22 new 52-week highs and seven new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 28 new highs and 341 new lows.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":806,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":690482556,"gmtCreate":1639701778490,"gmtModify":1639701779055,"author":{"id":"3578196134540225","authorId":"3578196134540225","name":"zeeling","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/901d745faf2cd5225a6dbed44ad6236a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578196134540225","idStr":"3578196134540225"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690482556","repostId":"2192942001","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1094,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":690251336,"gmtCreate":1639671757536,"gmtModify":1639671758109,"author":{"id":"3578196134540225","authorId":"3578196134540225","name":"zeeling","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/901d745faf2cd5225a6dbed44ad6236a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578196134540225","idStr":"3578196134540225"},"themes":[],"title":"great job for all","htmlText":"Great work everyone. Hope this will be a great day for all. Stay safe and really take care. There is always a better and brighter tomorrow for those who had tried. All the best to all","listText":"Great work everyone. Hope this will be a great day for all. Stay safe and really take care. There is always a better and brighter tomorrow for those who had tried. All the best to all","text":"Great work everyone. Hope this will be a great day for all. Stay safe and really take care. There is always a better and brighter tomorrow for those who had tried. All the best to 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stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1629460028,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1180862486?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-20 19:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Toplines Before US Market Opens Friday<blockquote>周五美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180862486","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(Aug 20) U.S. stock index futures fell on Friday, as concerns over a slowing economic recovery and t","content":"<p>(Aug 20)&nbsp;U.S. stock index futures fell on Friday, as concerns over a slowing economic recovery and the possible tapering of monetary stimulus hurt economy-linked sectors and put the Dow and the S&amp;P 500 on course for their worst week since mid-June.</p><p><blockquote>（8月20日）美国。股指期货周五下跌，因对经济复苏放缓和可能缩减货币刺激的担忧损害了与经济相关的板块，并使道指和标普500走上了自6月中旬以来最糟糕的一周。</blockquote></p><p> At 07:52 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were down 139 points, or 0.40%, S&amp;P 500 E-minis were down&nbsp;16.5 points, or 0.37% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were&nbsp;down&nbsp;24 points, or 0.16%.</p><p><blockquote>截至美国东部时间上午07:52，道琼斯指数下跌139点，跌幅0.40%，标普500指数下跌16.5点，跌幅0.37%，纳斯达克100指数下跌24点，跌幅0.16%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1746670a754aa5714712ad089963b51\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"492\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves premarket:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：</b></blockquote></p><p> 1)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DE\">John Deere</a> – The heavy equipment maker reported quarterly earnings of $5.32 per share, compared with a consensus estimate of $4.58, and its revenue beat forecasts as well. Deere was up 1.1% in premarket trading as it also raised its full-year earnings forecast on solid demand for farm equipment.</p><p><blockquote>1) <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DE\">约翰·Deere</a>-这家重型设备制造商公布的季度收益为每股5.32美元，而市场普遍预期为4.58美元，其收入也超出了预期。Deere在盘前交易中上涨1.1%，由于农业设备需求强劲，该公司还上调了全年盈利预期。</blockquote></p><p> 2)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FL\">Foot Locker</a>&nbsp;– Foot Locker shares surged 6.2% in the premarket after the athletic footwear and apparel maker reported better-than-expected second-quarter results. Foot Locker earned an adjusted $2.21 per share, compared with a $1.01 consensus estimate, and comparable stores sales rose 6.9%. Analysts had expected a slight decline in comp sales.</p><p><blockquote>2) <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FL\">脚锁</a>-运动鞋和服装制造商Foot Locker公布好于预期的第二季度业绩后，该公司股价在盘前飙升6.2%。Foot Locker调整后每股收益为2.21美元，市场普遍预期为1.01美元，可比商店销售额增长6.9%。分析师此前预计公司销售额将略有下降。</blockquote></p><p> 3)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BKE\">Buckle</a> – The fashion accessories retailer beat estimates by 18 cents with quarterly earnings of $1.04 per share, and revenue above estimates as the company benefited from more in-person shopping. The stock jumped 4.6% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>3) <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BKE\">扣</a>–这家时尚配饰零售商超出预期18美分，季度收益为每股1.04美元，收入高于预期，因为该公司受益于更多的面对面购物。该股在盘前交易中上涨4.6%。</blockquote></p><p> 4)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPOT\">Spotify Technology S.A.</a> – The music streaming service announced that its board approved a $1 billion stock buyback. Chief Financial Officer Paul Vogel said the move demonstrates the company’s confidence in its business and long-term growth opportunities. Spotify added 1.1% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote>4) <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPOT\">Spotify技术有限公司。</a>–这家音乐流媒体服务公司宣布其董事会批准了10亿美元的股票回购。首席财务官Paul Vogel表示，此举表明了公司对其业务和长期增长机会的信心。Spotify盘前上涨1.1%。</blockquote></p><p> 5)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMAT\">Applied Materials</a> – The maker of semiconductor manufacturing equipment beat estimates by 13 cents with an adjusted quarterly profit of $1.90 per share and revenue also topping analyst predictions. It also gave a better-than-expected outlook, but Applied Materials shares fell 1.3% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>5) <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMAT\">应用材料</a>-这家半导体制造设备制造商超出预期13美分，调整后季度利润为每股1.90美元，收入也超出分析师预测。它还给出了好于预期的前景，但应用材料公司股价在盘前交易中下跌1.3%。</blockquote></p><p> 6)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ROST\">Ross</a> – The discount retailer reported a quarterly profit of $1.39 per share, beating the 98 cent consensus estimate, and also reported better-than-expected revenue. However, its current-quarter and full-year earnings outlook fell short of analyst forecasts, and the stock slid 4% in premarket action.</p><p><blockquote>6) <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ROST\">罗斯</a>-这家折扣零售商报告季度利润为每股1.39美元，超出市场普遍预期的98美分，收入也好于预期。然而，其本季度和全年盈利前景低于分析师预测，该股在盘前下跌4%。</blockquote></p><p> 7)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JNJ\">Johnson &amp; Johnson</a> – Chief Executive Officer Alex Gorsky announced plans to step aside on Jan. 3, with company veteran Joaquin Duato taking over and Gorsky assuming the role of executive chairman.</p><p><blockquote>7) <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JNJ\">强生公司</a>–首席执行官Alex Gorsky于1月3日宣布计划辞职，由公司资深人士Joaquin Duato接任，Gorsky担任执行董事长。</blockquote></p><p> 8)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIDE\">Lordstown Motors Corp.</a> – The electric vehicle maker’s shares rose 2.1% in the premarket, recovering a small part of the 9.5% Thursday drop that had sent the stock to its lowest since going public. That took place after the annual shareholder meeting that lasted only 10 minutes.</p><p><blockquote>8) <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIDE\">洛兹敦汽车公司。</a>–这家电动汽车制造商的股价在盘前上涨2.1%，收复了周四9.5%跌幅的一小部分，该跌幅导致该股跌至上市以来的最低水平。这发生在仅持续10分钟的年度股东大会之后。</blockquote></p><p> 9)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a> – The software maker announced a deal to buy cloud-based video collaboration platform Frame.io for $1.275 billion in cash. The acquisition will be used to expand the capabilities of Adobe’s Create Cloud software suite.</p><p><blockquote>9) <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">土坯</a>–该软件制造商宣布以12.75亿美元现金收购基于云的视频协作平台Frame.io的交易。此次收购将用于扩展Adobe Create Cloud软件套件的功能。</blockquote></p><p> 10)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WOOF\">Petco Health and Wellness Company, Inc.</a> – Petco added 2.1% in the premarket to Thursday’s 3.6% gain, with Credit Suisse upgrading the pet products retailer’s stock to “outperform” from “neutral”. Credit Suisse said it is more positive on the outlook for Petco’s business following the company’s upbeat earnings report.</p><p><blockquote>10) <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WOOF\">Petco健康和保健公司。</a>–Petco盘前上涨2.1%，周四上涨3.6%，瑞士信贷将这家宠物产品零售商的股票评级从“中性”上调至“跑赢大盘”。瑞士信贷表示，在Petco发布乐观的财报后，该公司对该公司的业务前景更加乐观。</blockquote></p><p> 11)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MOS\">Mosaic</a> – The fertilizer producer was upgraded to “buy” from “hold” at HSBC, based on expected benefits from higher fertilizer prices.</p><p><blockquote>11) <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MOS\">马赛克</a>-基于化肥价格上涨的预期收益，汇丰银行将该化肥生产商的评级从“持有”上调至“买入”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>In FX,</b>the index continues to extend on the upside seen post-FOMC as the risk tone remains tilted towards caution/risk aversion. Overnight, the DXY found a floor at 93.500 before rising to 93.684 at best as sentiment in Europe is tainted in early trade. From a technical standpoint, the index eyes resistance around the 93.900 mark - which acted as a ceiling on several occasions during Q3 and Q4 2020. Above that, a breach of the psychological 94.000 mark could open the door to resistance around 94.300 (4th Nov 2020 high), 94.500 and thereafter the 100 and 200 WMAs at 94.650 and 94.807 - although these are still some way off. To the downside, yesterday’s low was at 93.214, the psychological 93.000, whilst the 21 DMA (92.674) and the 50 DMA (92.377) reside just below. Ahead, an empty state-side calendar but price action will likely be dictated by the risk tone. As a side note Fed Chair Powell is to speak on the economic outlook at the Jackson Hole Symposium on August 27th at 15:00BST/10:00EDT.</p><p><blockquote><b>在FX中，</b>由于风险基调仍然倾向于谨慎/避险，该指数在FOMC会议后继续上涨。隔夜，由于欧洲情绪在早盘交易中受到影响，DXY在93.500点触底，然后最多升至93.684点。从技术角度来看，该指数关注93.900关口附近的阻力位——该关口在2020年第三季度和第四季度多次充当上限。在此之上，突破94.000心理关口可能会为94.300（2020年11月4日高点）、94.500附近的阻力打开大门，随后是94.650和94.807的100和200 WMA——尽管这些还有一段路要走。下行方面，昨日低点为93.214，心理低点为93.000，而21日均线(92.674)和50日均线(92.377)位于下方。未来，国家日历将是空的，但价格走势可能会由风险基调决定。顺便说一句，美联储主席鲍威尔将于8月27日英国夏令时15:00/美国东部时间10:00在杰克逊霍尔研讨会上就经济前景发表讲话。</blockquote></p><p> <b>In commodities,</b>WTI and Brent front-month futures are once again on a softer footing amid the continuing COVID concerns coupled with the cautious tone around the market. On the former, the overnight session saw an extension of the Kiwi nationwide lockdown alongside Australia's Sydney's curbs extended until the end of September. Aside from that news flow has been quiet for the complex and the market in general - with sentiment and Delta woes likely to take precedence in the absence of catalysts. WTI makes its way back towards UD 63/bbl (vs high 64.04/bbl) and Brent towards USD 66/bbl (vs 66.93 high). Elsewhere, spot gold and silver vary but remain flat in the grander scheme above USD 1,775/oz and north of USD 23/oz respectively. Base metals meanwhile see a mild rebound from yesterday's violent selloff, but benchmark LME copper remains sub-9,000/t after finding a ceiling at the mark.</p><p><blockquote><b>在大宗商品中，</b>由于对COVID的持续担忧以及市场的谨慎基调，WTI和布伦特原油近月期货再次走软。在前者方面，隔夜交易中，新西兰全国范围内的封锁延长，澳大利亚悉尼的限制延长至9月底。除此之外，该综合体和整个市场的消息一直很平静——在缺乏催化剂的情况下，情绪和达美航空的困境可能会优先。WTI原油价格回到63美元/桶（相对于64.04美元/桶的高点），布伦特原油价格回到66美元/桶（相对于66.93美元/桶的高点）。在其他地方，现货黄金和白银各不相同，但在更大的范围内分别保持在1775美元/盎司以上和23美元/盎司以上。与此同时，基本金属从昨日的剧烈抛售中温和反弹，但基准LME铜在找到上限后仍低于9000/吨。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Toplines Before US Market Opens Friday<blockquote>周五美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nToplines Before US Market Opens Friday<blockquote>周五美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-20 19:47</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Aug 20)&nbsp;U.S. stock index futures fell on Friday, as concerns over a slowing economic recovery and the possible tapering of monetary stimulus hurt economy-linked sectors and put the Dow and the S&amp;P 500 on course for their worst week since mid-June.</p><p><blockquote>（8月20日）美国。股指期货周五下跌，因对经济复苏放缓和可能缩减货币刺激的担忧损害了与经济相关的板块，并使道指和标普500走上了自6月中旬以来最糟糕的一周。</blockquote></p><p> At 07:52 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were down 139 points, or 0.40%, S&amp;P 500 E-minis were down&nbsp;16.5 points, or 0.37% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were&nbsp;down&nbsp;24 points, or 0.16%.</p><p><blockquote>截至美国东部时间上午07:52，道琼斯指数下跌139点，跌幅0.40%，标普500指数下跌16.5点，跌幅0.37%，纳斯达克100指数下跌24点，跌幅0.16%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1746670a754aa5714712ad089963b51\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"492\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves premarket:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：</b></blockquote></p><p> 1)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DE\">John Deere</a> – The heavy equipment maker reported quarterly earnings of $5.32 per share, compared with a consensus estimate of $4.58, and its revenue beat forecasts as well. Deere was up 1.1% in premarket trading as it also raised its full-year earnings forecast on solid demand for farm equipment.</p><p><blockquote>1) <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DE\">约翰·Deere</a>-这家重型设备制造商公布的季度收益为每股5.32美元，而市场普遍预期为4.58美元，其收入也超出了预期。Deere在盘前交易中上涨1.1%，由于农业设备需求强劲，该公司还上调了全年盈利预期。</blockquote></p><p> 2)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FL\">Foot Locker</a>&nbsp;– Foot Locker shares surged 6.2% in the premarket after the athletic footwear and apparel maker reported better-than-expected second-quarter results. Foot Locker earned an adjusted $2.21 per share, compared with a $1.01 consensus estimate, and comparable stores sales rose 6.9%. Analysts had expected a slight decline in comp sales.</p><p><blockquote>2) <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FL\">脚锁</a>-运动鞋和服装制造商Foot Locker公布好于预期的第二季度业绩后，该公司股价在盘前飙升6.2%。Foot Locker调整后每股收益为2.21美元，市场普遍预期为1.01美元，可比商店销售额增长6.9%。分析师此前预计公司销售额将略有下降。</blockquote></p><p> 3)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BKE\">Buckle</a> – The fashion accessories retailer beat estimates by 18 cents with quarterly earnings of $1.04 per share, and revenue above estimates as the company benefited from more in-person shopping. The stock jumped 4.6% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>3) <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BKE\">扣</a>–这家时尚配饰零售商超出预期18美分，季度收益为每股1.04美元，收入高于预期，因为该公司受益于更多的面对面购物。该股在盘前交易中上涨4.6%。</blockquote></p><p> 4)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPOT\">Spotify Technology S.A.</a> – The music streaming service announced that its board approved a $1 billion stock buyback. Chief Financial Officer Paul Vogel said the move demonstrates the company’s confidence in its business and long-term growth opportunities. Spotify added 1.1% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote>4) <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPOT\">Spotify技术有限公司。</a>–这家音乐流媒体服务公司宣布其董事会批准了10亿美元的股票回购。首席财务官Paul Vogel表示，此举表明了公司对其业务和长期增长机会的信心。Spotify盘前上涨1.1%。</blockquote></p><p> 5)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMAT\">Applied Materials</a> – The maker of semiconductor manufacturing equipment beat estimates by 13 cents with an adjusted quarterly profit of $1.90 per share and revenue also topping analyst predictions. It also gave a better-than-expected outlook, but Applied Materials shares fell 1.3% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>5) <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMAT\">应用材料</a>-这家半导体制造设备制造商超出预期13美分，调整后季度利润为每股1.90美元，收入也超出分析师预测。它还给出了好于预期的前景，但应用材料公司股价在盘前交易中下跌1.3%。</blockquote></p><p> 6)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ROST\">Ross</a> – The discount retailer reported a quarterly profit of $1.39 per share, beating the 98 cent consensus estimate, and also reported better-than-expected revenue. However, its current-quarter and full-year earnings outlook fell short of analyst forecasts, and the stock slid 4% in premarket action.</p><p><blockquote>6) <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ROST\">罗斯</a>-这家折扣零售商报告季度利润为每股1.39美元，超出市场普遍预期的98美分，收入也好于预期。然而，其本季度和全年盈利前景低于分析师预测，该股在盘前下跌4%。</blockquote></p><p> 7)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JNJ\">Johnson &amp; Johnson</a> – Chief Executive Officer Alex Gorsky announced plans to step aside on Jan. 3, with company veteran Joaquin Duato taking over and Gorsky assuming the role of executive chairman.</p><p><blockquote>7) <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JNJ\">强生公司</a>–首席执行官Alex Gorsky于1月3日宣布计划辞职，由公司资深人士Joaquin Duato接任，Gorsky担任执行董事长。</blockquote></p><p> 8)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIDE\">Lordstown Motors Corp.</a> – The electric vehicle maker’s shares rose 2.1% in the premarket, recovering a small part of the 9.5% Thursday drop that had sent the stock to its lowest since going public. That took place after the annual shareholder meeting that lasted only 10 minutes.</p><p><blockquote>8) <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIDE\">洛兹敦汽车公司。</a>–这家电动汽车制造商的股价在盘前上涨2.1%，收复了周四9.5%跌幅的一小部分，该跌幅导致该股跌至上市以来的最低水平。这发生在仅持续10分钟的年度股东大会之后。</blockquote></p><p> 9)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a> – The software maker announced a deal to buy cloud-based video collaboration platform Frame.io for $1.275 billion in cash. The acquisition will be used to expand the capabilities of Adobe’s Create Cloud software suite.</p><p><blockquote>9) <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">土坯</a>–该软件制造商宣布以12.75亿美元现金收购基于云的视频协作平台Frame.io的交易。此次收购将用于扩展Adobe Create Cloud软件套件的功能。</blockquote></p><p> 10)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WOOF\">Petco Health and Wellness Company, Inc.</a> – Petco added 2.1% in the premarket to Thursday’s 3.6% gain, with Credit Suisse upgrading the pet products retailer’s stock to “outperform” from “neutral”. Credit Suisse said it is more positive on the outlook for Petco’s business following the company’s upbeat earnings report.</p><p><blockquote>10) <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WOOF\">Petco健康和保健公司。</a>–Petco盘前上涨2.1%，周四上涨3.6%，瑞士信贷将这家宠物产品零售商的股票评级从“中性”上调至“跑赢大盘”。瑞士信贷表示，在Petco发布乐观的财报后，该公司对该公司的业务前景更加乐观。</blockquote></p><p> 11)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MOS\">Mosaic</a> – The fertilizer producer was upgraded to “buy” from “hold” at HSBC, based on expected benefits from higher fertilizer prices.</p><p><blockquote>11) <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MOS\">马赛克</a>-基于化肥价格上涨的预期收益，汇丰银行将该化肥生产商的评级从“持有”上调至“买入”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>In FX,</b>the index continues to extend on the upside seen post-FOMC as the risk tone remains tilted towards caution/risk aversion. Overnight, the DXY found a floor at 93.500 before rising to 93.684 at best as sentiment in Europe is tainted in early trade. From a technical standpoint, the index eyes resistance around the 93.900 mark - which acted as a ceiling on several occasions during Q3 and Q4 2020. Above that, a breach of the psychological 94.000 mark could open the door to resistance around 94.300 (4th Nov 2020 high), 94.500 and thereafter the 100 and 200 WMAs at 94.650 and 94.807 - although these are still some way off. To the downside, yesterday’s low was at 93.214, the psychological 93.000, whilst the 21 DMA (92.674) and the 50 DMA (92.377) reside just below. Ahead, an empty state-side calendar but price action will likely be dictated by the risk tone. As a side note Fed Chair Powell is to speak on the economic outlook at the Jackson Hole Symposium on August 27th at 15:00BST/10:00EDT.</p><p><blockquote><b>在FX中，</b>由于风险基调仍然倾向于谨慎/避险，该指数在FOMC会议后继续上涨。隔夜，由于欧洲情绪在早盘交易中受到影响，DXY在93.500点触底，然后最多升至93.684点。从技术角度来看，该指数关注93.900关口附近的阻力位——该关口在2020年第三季度和第四季度多次充当上限。在此之上，突破94.000心理关口可能会为94.300（2020年11月4日高点）、94.500附近的阻力打开大门，随后是94.650和94.807的100和200 WMA——尽管这些还有一段路要走。下行方面，昨日低点为93.214，心理低点为93.000，而21日均线(92.674)和50日均线(92.377)位于下方。未来，国家日历将是空的，但价格走势可能会由风险基调决定。顺便说一句，美联储主席鲍威尔将于8月27日英国夏令时15:00/美国东部时间10:00在杰克逊霍尔研讨会上就经济前景发表讲话。</blockquote></p><p> <b>In commodities,</b>WTI and Brent front-month futures are once again on a softer footing amid the continuing COVID concerns coupled with the cautious tone around the market. On the former, the overnight session saw an extension of the Kiwi nationwide lockdown alongside Australia's Sydney's curbs extended until the end of September. Aside from that news flow has been quiet for the complex and the market in general - with sentiment and Delta woes likely to take precedence in the absence of catalysts. WTI makes its way back towards UD 63/bbl (vs high 64.04/bbl) and Brent towards USD 66/bbl (vs 66.93 high). Elsewhere, spot gold and silver vary but remain flat in the grander scheme above USD 1,775/oz and north of USD 23/oz respectively. Base metals meanwhile see a mild rebound from yesterday's violent selloff, but benchmark LME copper remains sub-9,000/t after finding a ceiling at the mark.</p><p><blockquote><b>在大宗商品中，</b>由于对COVID的持续担忧以及市场的谨慎基调，WTI和布伦特原油近月期货再次走软。在前者方面，隔夜交易中，新西兰全国范围内的封锁延长，澳大利亚悉尼的限制延长至9月底。除此之外，该综合体和整个市场的消息一直很平静——在缺乏催化剂的情况下，情绪和达美航空的困境可能会优先。WTI原油价格回到63美元/桶（相对于64.04美元/桶的高点），布伦特原油价格回到66美元/桶（相对于66.93美元/桶的高点）。在其他地方，现货黄金和白银各不相同，但在更大的范围内分别保持在1775美元/盎司以上和23美元/盎司以上。与此同时，基本金属从昨日的剧烈抛售中温和反弹，但基准LME铜在找到上限后仍低于9000/吨。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180862486","content_text":"(Aug 20) U.S. stock index futures fell on Friday, as concerns over a slowing economic recovery and the possible tapering of monetary stimulus hurt economy-linked sectors and put the Dow and the S&P 500 on course for their worst week since mid-June.\nAt 07:52 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were down 139 points, or 0.40%, S&P 500 E-minis were down 16.5 points, or 0.37% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were down 24 points, or 0.16%.\n\nStocks making the biggest moves premarket:\n1) John Deere – The heavy equipment maker reported quarterly earnings of $5.32 per share, compared with a consensus estimate of $4.58, and its revenue beat forecasts as well. Deere was up 1.1% in premarket trading as it also raised its full-year earnings forecast on solid demand for farm equipment.\n2) Foot Locker – Foot Locker shares surged 6.2% in the premarket after the athletic footwear and apparel maker reported better-than-expected second-quarter results. Foot Locker earned an adjusted $2.21 per share, compared with a $1.01 consensus estimate, and comparable stores sales rose 6.9%. Analysts had expected a slight decline in comp sales.\n3) Buckle – The fashion accessories retailer beat estimates by 18 cents with quarterly earnings of $1.04 per share, and revenue above estimates as the company benefited from more in-person shopping. The stock jumped 4.6% in premarket trading.\n4) Spotify Technology S.A. – The music streaming service announced that its board approved a $1 billion stock buyback. Chief Financial Officer Paul Vogel said the move demonstrates the company’s confidence in its business and long-term growth opportunities. Spotify added 1.1% in the premarket.\n5) Applied Materials – The maker of semiconductor manufacturing equipment beat estimates by 13 cents with an adjusted quarterly profit of $1.90 per share and revenue also topping analyst predictions. It also gave a better-than-expected outlook, but Applied Materials shares fell 1.3% in premarket trading.\n6) Ross – The discount retailer reported a quarterly profit of $1.39 per share, beating the 98 cent consensus estimate, and also reported better-than-expected revenue. However, its current-quarter and full-year earnings outlook fell short of analyst forecasts, and the stock slid 4% in premarket action.\n7) Johnson & Johnson – Chief Executive Officer Alex Gorsky announced plans to step aside on Jan. 3, with company veteran Joaquin Duato taking over and Gorsky assuming the role of executive chairman.\n8) Lordstown Motors Corp. – The electric vehicle maker’s shares rose 2.1% in the premarket, recovering a small part of the 9.5% Thursday drop that had sent the stock to its lowest since going public. That took place after the annual shareholder meeting that lasted only 10 minutes.\n9) Adobe – The software maker announced a deal to buy cloud-based video collaboration platform Frame.io for $1.275 billion in cash. The acquisition will be used to expand the capabilities of Adobe’s Create Cloud software suite.\n10) Petco Health and Wellness Company, Inc. – Petco added 2.1% in the premarket to Thursday’s 3.6% gain, with Credit Suisse upgrading the pet products retailer’s stock to “outperform” from “neutral”. Credit Suisse said it is more positive on the outlook for Petco’s business following the company’s upbeat earnings report.\n11) Mosaic – The fertilizer producer was upgraded to “buy” from “hold” at HSBC, based on expected benefits from higher fertilizer prices.\nIn FX,the index continues to extend on the upside seen post-FOMC as the risk tone remains tilted towards caution/risk aversion. Overnight, the DXY found a floor at 93.500 before rising to 93.684 at best as sentiment in Europe is tainted in early trade. From a technical standpoint, the index eyes resistance around the 93.900 mark - which acted as a ceiling on several occasions during Q3 and Q4 2020. Above that, a breach of the psychological 94.000 mark could open the door to resistance around 94.300 (4th Nov 2020 high), 94.500 and thereafter the 100 and 200 WMAs at 94.650 and 94.807 - although these are still some way off. To the downside, yesterday’s low was at 93.214, the psychological 93.000, whilst the 21 DMA (92.674) and the 50 DMA (92.377) reside just below. Ahead, an empty state-side calendar but price action will likely be dictated by the risk tone. As a side note Fed Chair Powell is to speak on the economic outlook at the Jackson Hole Symposium on August 27th at 15:00BST/10:00EDT.\nIn commodities,WTI and Brent front-month futures are once again on a softer footing amid the continuing COVID concerns coupled with the cautious tone around the market. On the former, the overnight session saw an extension of the Kiwi nationwide lockdown alongside Australia's Sydney's curbs extended until the end of September. Aside from that news flow has been quiet for the complex and the market in general - with sentiment and Delta woes likely to take precedence in the absence of catalysts. WTI makes its way back towards UD 63/bbl (vs high 64.04/bbl) and Brent towards USD 66/bbl (vs 66.93 high). Elsewhere, spot gold and silver vary but remain flat in the grander scheme above USD 1,775/oz and north of USD 23/oz respectively. Base metals meanwhile see a mild rebound from yesterday's violent selloff, but benchmark LME copper remains sub-9,000/t after finding a ceiling at the mark.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":288,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":800047987,"gmtCreate":1627268345949,"gmtModify":1633766679327,"author":{"id":"3578196134540225","authorId":"3578196134540225","name":"zeeling","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/901d745faf2cd5225a6dbed44ad6236a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578196134540225","idStr":"3578196134540225"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool","listText":"Cool","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/800047987","repostId":"1100772026","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":453,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":873823650,"gmtCreate":1636930818438,"gmtModify":1636930818630,"author":{"id":"3578196134540225","authorId":"3578196134540225","name":"zeeling","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/901d745faf2cd5225a6dbed44ad6236a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578196134540225","idStr":"3578196134540225"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"GGreat","listText":"GGreat","text":"GGreat","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873823650","repostId":"1103944030","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":509,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":843368754,"gmtCreate":1635809144560,"gmtModify":1635809144787,"author":{"id":"3578196134540225","authorId":"3578196134540225","name":"zeeling","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/901d745faf2cd5225a6dbed44ad6236a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578196134540225","idStr":"3578196134540225"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/843368754","repostId":"2180209403","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":441,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":858847103,"gmtCreate":1635040093399,"gmtModify":1635040482498,"author":{"id":"3578196134540225","authorId":"3578196134540225","name":"zeeling","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/901d745faf2cd5225a6dbed44ad6236a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578196134540225","idStr":"3578196134540225"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/858847103","repostId":"1174514229","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1174514229","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1635035471,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1174514229?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-24 08:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US IPO Week Ahead: Semiconductors, energy storage, designer apparel, and more in a 12 IPO week<blockquote>美国IPO周：12周IPO中的半导体、储能、设计师服装等</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174514229","media":"Renaissance Capital","summary":"The IPO market continues to stay busy with 12 IPOs schedule to raise $6.8 billion in the week ahead.","content":"<p>The IPO market continues to stay busy with 12 IPOs schedule to raise $6.8 billion in the week ahead.</p><p><blockquote>IPO市场继续保持繁忙，未来一周将有12起IPO计划筹集68亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Semiconductor foundry&nbsp;<b>GlobalFoundries</b>(GFS) plans to raise $2.4 billion at a $24.6 billion market cap. Backed by Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala, US-based GlobalFoundries is one of the world’s leading specialty semiconductor foundries. Unprofitable with lumpy growth, the company states that it is the only scaled pure-play foundry with a global footprint that is not based in China.</p><p><blockquote>半导体代工<b>GlobalFoundries</b>(GFS)计划以246亿美元的市值筹集24亿美元。总部位于美国的GlobalFoundries得到阿布扎比穆巴达拉的支持，是全球领先的特种半导体代工厂之一。由于增长不稳定，该公司表示，它是唯一一家业务遍及全球但总部不在中国的规模化纯代工厂。</blockquote></p><p> Enterprise cloud data management platform&nbsp;<b>Informatica</b>(INFA) plans to raise $885 million at an $8.7 billion market cap. This company provides data integration services on its AI-powered platform to over 5,700 customers through both licenses and subscriptions. Although it will be highly leveraged post-IPO, Informatica is a recognized leader in the global data management market and saw strong subscription ARR growth in the 1H21.</p><p><blockquote>企业云数据管理平台<b>计算机科学</b>(INFA)计划以87亿美元的市值筹集8.85亿美元。该公司通过许可证和订阅在其人工智能平台上向5,700多家客户提供数据集成服务。尽管IPO后的杠杆率很高，但Informatica是全球数据管理市场公认的领导者，并在2021年上半年实现了强劲的订阅ARR增长。</blockquote></p><p> Energy storage provider&nbsp;<b>Fluence Energy</b>(FLNC) plans to raise $698 million at a $3.8 billion market cap. Formed by Siemens and AES, this company sells energy storage products and services to utilities, independent power producers, project developers, and commercial and industrial customers. Fast growing but unprofitable, Fluence Energy deployed 942 MW of storage products as of 6/30/21.</p><p><blockquote>储能提供商<b>注量能</b>(FLNC)计划以38亿美元的市值筹集6.98亿美元。该公司由西门子和AES组成，向公用事业公司、独立电力生产商、项目开发商以及商业和工业客户销售储能产品和服务。快速增长但无利可图，截至2011年6月30日，Fluence Energy部署了942 MW的存储产品。</blockquote></p><p> Revenue cycle management platform&nbsp;<b>Ensemble Health Partners</b>(ENSB) plans to raise $605 million at a $3.6 billion market cap. This platform provides revenue cycle management solutions to the healthcare industry. Profitable with accelerating growth in the 1H21, Ensemble Health has over $20 billion in annual client net patient revenue under management.</p><p><blockquote>收益周期管理平台<b>合奏健康合作伙伴</b>(ENSB)计划以36亿美元的市值筹集6.05亿美元。该平台为医疗保健行业提供收入周期管理解决方案。随着2021年上半年的加速增长，Ensemble Health管理的年度客户净患者收入超过200亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Hiring solutions provider&nbsp;<b>HireRight Holdings</b>(HRT) plans to raise $500 million at a $1.8 billion market cap. This company provides background checks, verification, identification, monitoring, and drug and health screening services to over 40,000 customers. HireRight was profitable on an EBIT basis in the 1H21, though cash flow swung negative.</p><p><blockquote>招聘解决方案提供商<b>雇佣权控股公司</b>(HRT)计划以18亿美元的市值筹集5亿美元。该公司为40,000多名客户提供背景调查、验证、识别、监控以及药物和健康筛查服务。尽管现金流转为负值，但HireRight在2021年上半年的息税前利润仍实现盈利。</blockquote></p><p> Online education marketplace&nbsp;<b>Udemy</b>(UDMY) plans to raise $406 million at a $4.3 billion market cap. This education platform provides over 183,000 courses in 75 languages to over 44 million customers in over 180 countries. Growing but unprofitable, Udemy has registered more than 73 million users since its inception.</p><p><blockquote>在线教育市场<b>Udemy</b>(UDMY)计划以43亿美元的市值筹集4.06亿美元。该教育平台为180多个国家的4400万多名客户提供75种语言的183,000多门课程。Udemy不断增长但尚未盈利，自成立以来已注册用户超过7300万。</blockquote></p><p> Chinese drug in-licensor&nbsp;<b>LianBio</b>(LIAN) plans to raise $325 million at a $1.8 billion market cap. Focused on China and other Asian markets, this biopharmaceutical company develops and commercializes drugs for a variety of indications. LianBio’s pipeline currently consists of nine product candidates across five different therapeutics areas.</p><p><blockquote>中国药品许可人<b>联比奥</b>(LIAN)计划以18亿美元的市值筹集3.25亿美元。这家生物制药公司专注于中国和其他亚洲市场，开发和商业化多种适应症的药物。联生物的产品线目前包括五个不同治疗领域的九种候选产品。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Rent the Runway</b>(RENT) plans to raise $293 million at a $1.4 billion market cap. This apparel rental company originally focused on a-la-carte rentals of dresses for events, but has gradually transitioned to mostly generating revenue from monthly subscription boxes. While the company has seen active subscribers and revenue rebound in the last two quarters, it is unprofitable and leveraged post-IPO.</p><p><blockquote><b>租用跑道</b>(RENT)计划以14亿美元的市值筹集2.93亿美元。这家服装租赁公司最初专注于活动服装的点菜租赁，但已逐渐过渡到主要从每月订阅箱中创收。尽管该公司在过去两个季度的活跃订户和收入有所反弹，但IPO后仍未盈利且存在杠杆作用。</blockquote></p><p> Aesthetic medical device maker&nbsp;<b>Candela Medical</b>(CDLA) plans to raise $250 million at a $1.7 billion market cap. Selling products directly in 18 countries and indirectly in 66 countries, this company develops medical devices for elective aesthetic procedures. Despite being hard hit by the pandemic, Candela Medical saw strong growth and turned profitable in the 1H21.</p><p><blockquote>美容医疗器械制造商<b>坎德拉医疗</b>(CDLA)计划以17亿美元的市值筹集2.5亿美元。该公司直接在18个国家销售产品，间接在66个国家销售产品，开发用于选择性美容手术的医疗设备。尽管受到疫情的严重打击，坎德拉医疗仍实现了强劲增长，并在2021年上半年扭亏为盈。</blockquote></p><p> Fire pit brand&nbsp;<b>Solo Brands</b>(DTC) plans to raise $200 million at a $1.5 billion market cap. Solo Brands sells fire pits, camp stoves, and other outdoor gear through its DTC platform. Fast growing and profitable, this outdoor e-commerce has an installed base of more than 2.3 million customers.</p><p><blockquote>火坑品牌<b>索罗品牌</b>(DTC)计划以15亿美元的市值筹集2亿美元。Solo Brands通过其DTC平台销售火坑、野营炉和其他户外装备。这家户外电子商务发展迅速，利润丰厚，拥有超过230万客户。</blockquote></p><p> Body contouring provider&nbsp;<b>AirSculpt Technologies</b>(AIRS) plans to raise $160 million at an $886 million market cap. This company provides minimally-invasive body contouring procedures through 16 centers across 13 states in the US. AirSculpt Technologies is profitable with solid growth, and has seen an increase in same-center case volume as a result of lessening effects of COVID-19.</p><p><blockquote>塑身师<b>空气雕刻技术</b>(AIRS)计划以8.86亿美元的市值筹集1.6亿美元。该公司通过美国13个州的16个中心提供微创塑身手术。AirSculpt Technologies实现盈利并稳健增长，并且由于COVID-19影响的减轻，同中心案例数量有所增加。</blockquote></p><p> Technology firm&nbsp;<b>Arteris</b>(AIP) plans to raise $75 million at a $555 million market cap. This technology company develops and licenses interconnect intellectual property that manages the on-chip communications in System-on-Chip semiconductor devices. Arteris is unprofitable but saw growth accelerate in the 1H21.</p><p><blockquote>科技公司<b>动脉</b>(AIP)计划以5.55亿美元的市值筹集7500万美元。这家技术公司开发并许可互连知识产权，管理片上系统半导体器件中的片上通信。Arteris尚未盈利，但在2021年上半年增长加速。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99c3b0173e59f4e69ff484c12bd137e7\" tg-width=\"1270\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64e34b3c49a856e99ba64a2d57410844\" tg-width=\"1272\" tg-height=\"582\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Street research is expected for six companies, and lock-up periods will be expiring for up to 12 companies.</p><p><blockquote>预计将有6家公司接受街头调查，多达12家公司的禁售期将到期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>IPO Market Snapshot</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IPO市场快照</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The Renaissance IPO Indices are market cap weighted baskets of newly public companies. As of 10/22/21, the Renaissance IPO Index was up 8.2% year-to-date, while the S&amp;P 500 was up 21.1%. Renaissance Capital's IPO ETF (NYSE: IPO) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Uber Technologies (UBER) and Moderna (MRNA). The Renaissance International IPO Index was down 15.8% year-to-date, while the ACWX was up 9.1%. Renaissance Capital’s International IPO ETF (NYSE: IPOS) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Meituan-Dianping and SoftBank.</p><p><blockquote>文艺复兴IPO指数是新上市公司的市值加权篮子。截至10/22/21，文艺复兴IPO指数今年迄今上涨了8.2%，而标普500上涨了21.1%。Renaissance Capital的IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPO）跟踪该指数，持有的顶级ETF包括Uber Technologies（UBER）和Moderna（MRNA）。Renaissance International IPO指数今年迄今下跌15.8%，而ACWX指数上涨9.1%。Renaissance Capital的国际IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPOS）跟踪该指数，持有最多的ETF包括美团-W大众点评和软银。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603787993745","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US IPO Week Ahead: Semiconductors, energy storage, designer apparel, and more in a 12 IPO week<blockquote>美国IPO周：12周IPO中的半导体、储能、设计师服装等</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS IPO Week Ahead: Semiconductors, energy storage, designer apparel, and more in a 12 IPO week<blockquote>美国IPO周：12周IPO中的半导体、储能、设计师服装等</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Renaissance Capital</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-24 08:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The IPO market continues to stay busy with 12 IPOs schedule to raise $6.8 billion in the week ahead.</p><p><blockquote>IPO市场继续保持繁忙，未来一周将有12起IPO计划筹集68亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Semiconductor foundry&nbsp;<b>GlobalFoundries</b>(GFS) plans to raise $2.4 billion at a $24.6 billion market cap. Backed by Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala, US-based GlobalFoundries is one of the world’s leading specialty semiconductor foundries. Unprofitable with lumpy growth, the company states that it is the only scaled pure-play foundry with a global footprint that is not based in China.</p><p><blockquote>半导体代工<b>GlobalFoundries</b>(GFS)计划以246亿美元的市值筹集24亿美元。总部位于美国的GlobalFoundries得到阿布扎比穆巴达拉的支持，是全球领先的特种半导体代工厂之一。由于增长不稳定，该公司表示，它是唯一一家业务遍及全球但总部不在中国的规模化纯代工厂。</blockquote></p><p> Enterprise cloud data management platform&nbsp;<b>Informatica</b>(INFA) plans to raise $885 million at an $8.7 billion market cap. This company provides data integration services on its AI-powered platform to over 5,700 customers through both licenses and subscriptions. Although it will be highly leveraged post-IPO, Informatica is a recognized leader in the global data management market and saw strong subscription ARR growth in the 1H21.</p><p><blockquote>企业云数据管理平台<b>计算机科学</b>(INFA)计划以87亿美元的市值筹集8.85亿美元。该公司通过许可证和订阅在其人工智能平台上向5,700多家客户提供数据集成服务。尽管IPO后的杠杆率很高，但Informatica是全球数据管理市场公认的领导者，并在2021年上半年实现了强劲的订阅ARR增长。</blockquote></p><p> Energy storage provider&nbsp;<b>Fluence Energy</b>(FLNC) plans to raise $698 million at a $3.8 billion market cap. Formed by Siemens and AES, this company sells energy storage products and services to utilities, independent power producers, project developers, and commercial and industrial customers. Fast growing but unprofitable, Fluence Energy deployed 942 MW of storage products as of 6/30/21.</p><p><blockquote>储能提供商<b>注量能</b>(FLNC)计划以38亿美元的市值筹集6.98亿美元。该公司由西门子和AES组成，向公用事业公司、独立电力生产商、项目开发商以及商业和工业客户销售储能产品和服务。快速增长但无利可图，截至2011年6月30日，Fluence Energy部署了942 MW的存储产品。</blockquote></p><p> Revenue cycle management platform&nbsp;<b>Ensemble Health Partners</b>(ENSB) plans to raise $605 million at a $3.6 billion market cap. This platform provides revenue cycle management solutions to the healthcare industry. Profitable with accelerating growth in the 1H21, Ensemble Health has over $20 billion in annual client net patient revenue under management.</p><p><blockquote>收益周期管理平台<b>合奏健康合作伙伴</b>(ENSB)计划以36亿美元的市值筹集6.05亿美元。该平台为医疗保健行业提供收入周期管理解决方案。随着2021年上半年的加速增长，Ensemble Health管理的年度客户净患者收入超过200亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Hiring solutions provider&nbsp;<b>HireRight Holdings</b>(HRT) plans to raise $500 million at a $1.8 billion market cap. This company provides background checks, verification, identification, monitoring, and drug and health screening services to over 40,000 customers. HireRight was profitable on an EBIT basis in the 1H21, though cash flow swung negative.</p><p><blockquote>招聘解决方案提供商<b>雇佣权控股公司</b>(HRT)计划以18亿美元的市值筹集5亿美元。该公司为40,000多名客户提供背景调查、验证、识别、监控以及药物和健康筛查服务。尽管现金流转为负值，但HireRight在2021年上半年的息税前利润仍实现盈利。</blockquote></p><p> Online education marketplace&nbsp;<b>Udemy</b>(UDMY) plans to raise $406 million at a $4.3 billion market cap. This education platform provides over 183,000 courses in 75 languages to over 44 million customers in over 180 countries. Growing but unprofitable, Udemy has registered more than 73 million users since its inception.</p><p><blockquote>在线教育市场<b>Udemy</b>(UDMY)计划以43亿美元的市值筹集4.06亿美元。该教育平台为180多个国家的4400万多名客户提供75种语言的183,000多门课程。Udemy不断增长但尚未盈利，自成立以来已注册用户超过7300万。</blockquote></p><p> Chinese drug in-licensor&nbsp;<b>LianBio</b>(LIAN) plans to raise $325 million at a $1.8 billion market cap. Focused on China and other Asian markets, this biopharmaceutical company develops and commercializes drugs for a variety of indications. LianBio’s pipeline currently consists of nine product candidates across five different therapeutics areas.</p><p><blockquote>中国药品许可人<b>联比奥</b>(LIAN)计划以18亿美元的市值筹集3.25亿美元。这家生物制药公司专注于中国和其他亚洲市场，开发和商业化多种适应症的药物。联生物的产品线目前包括五个不同治疗领域的九种候选产品。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Rent the Runway</b>(RENT) plans to raise $293 million at a $1.4 billion market cap. This apparel rental company originally focused on a-la-carte rentals of dresses for events, but has gradually transitioned to mostly generating revenue from monthly subscription boxes. While the company has seen active subscribers and revenue rebound in the last two quarters, it is unprofitable and leveraged post-IPO.</p><p><blockquote><b>租用跑道</b>(RENT)计划以14亿美元的市值筹集2.93亿美元。这家服装租赁公司最初专注于活动服装的点菜租赁，但已逐渐过渡到主要从每月订阅箱中创收。尽管该公司在过去两个季度的活跃订户和收入有所反弹，但IPO后仍未盈利且存在杠杆作用。</blockquote></p><p> Aesthetic medical device maker&nbsp;<b>Candela Medical</b>(CDLA) plans to raise $250 million at a $1.7 billion market cap. Selling products directly in 18 countries and indirectly in 66 countries, this company develops medical devices for elective aesthetic procedures. Despite being hard hit by the pandemic, Candela Medical saw strong growth and turned profitable in the 1H21.</p><p><blockquote>美容医疗器械制造商<b>坎德拉医疗</b>(CDLA)计划以17亿美元的市值筹集2.5亿美元。该公司直接在18个国家销售产品，间接在66个国家销售产品，开发用于选择性美容手术的医疗设备。尽管受到疫情的严重打击，坎德拉医疗仍实现了强劲增长，并在2021年上半年扭亏为盈。</blockquote></p><p> Fire pit brand&nbsp;<b>Solo Brands</b>(DTC) plans to raise $200 million at a $1.5 billion market cap. Solo Brands sells fire pits, camp stoves, and other outdoor gear through its DTC platform. Fast growing and profitable, this outdoor e-commerce has an installed base of more than 2.3 million customers.</p><p><blockquote>火坑品牌<b>索罗品牌</b>(DTC)计划以15亿美元的市值筹集2亿美元。Solo Brands通过其DTC平台销售火坑、野营炉和其他户外装备。这家户外电子商务发展迅速，利润丰厚，拥有超过230万客户。</blockquote></p><p> Body contouring provider&nbsp;<b>AirSculpt Technologies</b>(AIRS) plans to raise $160 million at an $886 million market cap. This company provides minimally-invasive body contouring procedures through 16 centers across 13 states in the US. AirSculpt Technologies is profitable with solid growth, and has seen an increase in same-center case volume as a result of lessening effects of COVID-19.</p><p><blockquote>塑身师<b>空气雕刻技术</b>(AIRS)计划以8.86亿美元的市值筹集1.6亿美元。该公司通过美国13个州的16个中心提供微创塑身手术。AirSculpt Technologies实现盈利并稳健增长，并且由于COVID-19影响的减轻，同中心案例数量有所增加。</blockquote></p><p> Technology firm&nbsp;<b>Arteris</b>(AIP) plans to raise $75 million at a $555 million market cap. This technology company develops and licenses interconnect intellectual property that manages the on-chip communications in System-on-Chip semiconductor devices. Arteris is unprofitable but saw growth accelerate in the 1H21.</p><p><blockquote>科技公司<b>动脉</b>(AIP)计划以5.55亿美元的市值筹集7500万美元。这家技术公司开发并许可互连知识产权，管理片上系统半导体器件中的片上通信。Arteris尚未盈利，但在2021年上半年增长加速。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99c3b0173e59f4e69ff484c12bd137e7\" tg-width=\"1270\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64e34b3c49a856e99ba64a2d57410844\" tg-width=\"1272\" tg-height=\"582\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Street research is expected for six companies, and lock-up periods will be expiring for up to 12 companies.</p><p><blockquote>预计将有6家公司接受街头调查，多达12家公司的禁售期将到期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>IPO Market Snapshot</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IPO市场快照</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The Renaissance IPO Indices are market cap weighted baskets of newly public companies. As of 10/22/21, the Renaissance IPO Index was up 8.2% year-to-date, while the S&amp;P 500 was up 21.1%. Renaissance Capital's IPO ETF (NYSE: IPO) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Uber Technologies (UBER) and Moderna (MRNA). The Renaissance International IPO Index was down 15.8% year-to-date, while the ACWX was up 9.1%. Renaissance Capital’s International IPO ETF (NYSE: IPOS) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Meituan-Dianping and SoftBank.</p><p><blockquote>文艺复兴IPO指数是新上市公司的市值加权篮子。截至10/22/21，文艺复兴IPO指数今年迄今上涨了8.2%，而标普500上涨了21.1%。Renaissance Capital的IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPO）跟踪该指数，持有的顶级ETF包括Uber Technologies（UBER）和Moderna（MRNA）。Renaissance International IPO指数今年迄今下跌15.8%，而ACWX指数上涨9.1%。Renaissance Capital的国际IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPOS）跟踪该指数，持有最多的ETF包括美团-W大众点评和软银。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/87676/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-Semiconductors-energy-storage-designer-apparel-and-more-i\">Renaissance Capital</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AIP":"Arteris, Inc.","FLNC":"Fluence Energy, Inc.","HRT":"HireRight Holdings Corp.",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","GFS":"GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.","UDMY":"Udemy, Inc.",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","RENT":"Rent the Runway, Inc.","AIRS":"Airsculpt Technologies","INFA":"Informatica Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/87676/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-Semiconductors-energy-storage-designer-apparel-and-more-i","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174514229","content_text":"The IPO market continues to stay busy with 12 IPOs schedule to raise $6.8 billion in the week ahead.\nSemiconductor foundry GlobalFoundries(GFS) plans to raise $2.4 billion at a $24.6 billion market cap. Backed by Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala, US-based GlobalFoundries is one of the world’s leading specialty semiconductor foundries. Unprofitable with lumpy growth, the company states that it is the only scaled pure-play foundry with a global footprint that is not based in China.\nEnterprise cloud data management platform Informatica(INFA) plans to raise $885 million at an $8.7 billion market cap. This company provides data integration services on its AI-powered platform to over 5,700 customers through both licenses and subscriptions. Although it will be highly leveraged post-IPO, Informatica is a recognized leader in the global data management market and saw strong subscription ARR growth in the 1H21.\nEnergy storage provider Fluence Energy(FLNC) plans to raise $698 million at a $3.8 billion market cap. Formed by Siemens and AES, this company sells energy storage products and services to utilities, independent power producers, project developers, and commercial and industrial customers. Fast growing but unprofitable, Fluence Energy deployed 942 MW of storage products as of 6/30/21.\nRevenue cycle management platform Ensemble Health Partners(ENSB) plans to raise $605 million at a $3.6 billion market cap. This platform provides revenue cycle management solutions to the healthcare industry. Profitable with accelerating growth in the 1H21, Ensemble Health has over $20 billion in annual client net patient revenue under management.\nHiring solutions provider HireRight Holdings(HRT) plans to raise $500 million at a $1.8 billion market cap. This company provides background checks, verification, identification, monitoring, and drug and health screening services to over 40,000 customers. HireRight was profitable on an EBIT basis in the 1H21, though cash flow swung negative.\nOnline education marketplace Udemy(UDMY) plans to raise $406 million at a $4.3 billion market cap. This education platform provides over 183,000 courses in 75 languages to over 44 million customers in over 180 countries. Growing but unprofitable, Udemy has registered more than 73 million users since its inception.\nChinese drug in-licensor LianBio(LIAN) plans to raise $325 million at a $1.8 billion market cap. Focused on China and other Asian markets, this biopharmaceutical company develops and commercializes drugs for a variety of indications. LianBio’s pipeline currently consists of nine product candidates across five different therapeutics areas.\nRent the Runway(RENT) plans to raise $293 million at a $1.4 billion market cap. This apparel rental company originally focused on a-la-carte rentals of dresses for events, but has gradually transitioned to mostly generating revenue from monthly subscription boxes. While the company has seen active subscribers and revenue rebound in the last two quarters, it is unprofitable and leveraged post-IPO.\nAesthetic medical device maker Candela Medical(CDLA) plans to raise $250 million at a $1.7 billion market cap. Selling products directly in 18 countries and indirectly in 66 countries, this company develops medical devices for elective aesthetic procedures. Despite being hard hit by the pandemic, Candela Medical saw strong growth and turned profitable in the 1H21.\nFire pit brand Solo Brands(DTC) plans to raise $200 million at a $1.5 billion market cap. Solo Brands sells fire pits, camp stoves, and other outdoor gear through its DTC platform. Fast growing and profitable, this outdoor e-commerce has an installed base of more than 2.3 million customers.\nBody contouring provider AirSculpt Technologies(AIRS) plans to raise $160 million at an $886 million market cap. This company provides minimally-invasive body contouring procedures through 16 centers across 13 states in the US. AirSculpt Technologies is profitable with solid growth, and has seen an increase in same-center case volume as a result of lessening effects of COVID-19.\nTechnology firm Arteris(AIP) plans to raise $75 million at a $555 million market cap. This technology company develops and licenses interconnect intellectual property that manages the on-chip communications in System-on-Chip semiconductor devices. Arteris is unprofitable but saw growth accelerate in the 1H21.\n\nStreet research is expected for six companies, and lock-up periods will be expiring for up to 12 companies.\nIPO Market Snapshot\nThe Renaissance IPO Indices are market cap weighted baskets of newly public companies. As of 10/22/21, the Renaissance IPO Index was up 8.2% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 was up 21.1%. Renaissance Capital's IPO ETF (NYSE: IPO) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Uber Technologies (UBER) and Moderna (MRNA). The Renaissance International IPO Index was down 15.8% year-to-date, while the ACWX was up 9.1%. Renaissance Capital’s International IPO ETF (NYSE: IPOS) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Meituan-Dianping and SoftBank.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"RENT":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"AIP":0.9,"DTC":0.9,"ENSB":0.9,"INFA":0.9,"GFS":0.9,"FLNC":0.9,"HRT":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"AIRS":0.9,"CDLA":0.9,"LIAN":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"UDMY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":285,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":821972530,"gmtCreate":1633693579929,"gmtModify":1633693580528,"author":{"id":"3578196134540225","authorId":"3578196134540225","name":"zeeling","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/901d745faf2cd5225a6dbed44ad6236a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578196134540225","idStr":"3578196134540225"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821972530","repostId":"1135993400","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135993400","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633675137,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1135993400?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-08 14:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"September Payrolls Preview: It Will Be A Beat, The Question Is How Big<blockquote>9月就业预览：这将是一个节拍，问题是有多大</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135993400","media":"zerohedge","summary":"After a strong initial claims report and a solid ADP private payrolls print, all eyes turn to the mo","content":"<p>After a strong initial claims report and a solid ADP private payrolls print, all eyes turn to the most important economic data point of the week, and the month, Friday's nonfarm payrolls report due at 830am ET on Friday, where consensus expects a 500K print- more than double last month's disappointing 235K print - as well as a drop in the unemployment rate to 5.1% and an increase in average hourly earnings to 4.6%. And unlike last month, when wecorrectly predicted the big miss in August payrolls, this time we agree that tomorrow's report will be a beat, the only question is how big.</p><p><blockquote>在强劲的首次申请失业救济报告和稳健的ADP私人就业数据之后，所有人的目光都转向了本周和本月最重要的经济数据点，即美国东部时间周五上午830点发布的周五非农就业报告，市场普遍预计非农就业报告将达到50万份——是上个月令人失望的23.5万份的两倍多——失业率降至5.1%，平均时薪增加至4.6%。与上个月不同的是，当我们正确预测8月份就业人数将大幅下降时，这次我们同意明天的报告将是一个节拍，唯一的问题是幅度有多大。</blockquote></p><p> Here is a snapshot of what to expect tomorrow:</p><p><blockquote>以下是明天的快照：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Total Payrolls: 500K, Last 235K</li>  <li>Private Payrolls: 450K, Last 243K</li>  <li>Unemployment Rate: 5.1%, Last 5.2%</li>  <li>Labor force participation rate: 61.8%, Last 61.7%</li>  <li>Average Hourly Earnings Y/Y: 4.6%, Last 4.3%</li>  <li>Average Weekly Hours: 34.7, Last 34.7</li> </ul> As&nbsp;Newsquawk&nbsp;writes in its NFP preview, September’s jobs data, the last before the Fed’s November 3rd policy meeting, will be framed in the context of the central bank’s expected taper announcement, where a merely satisfactory report would likely to be enough for the FOMC to greenlight a November announcement to scale-back its USD 120BN/month asset purchases.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>总就业人数：50万，最后23.5万</li><li>私人就业人数：45万，最新24.3万</li><li>失业率：5.1%，去年5.2%</li><li>劳动参与率：61.8%，上次61.7%</li><li>平均时薪同比：4.6%，过去4.3%</li><li>平均每周工作时间：34.7，最后34.7</li></ul>正如Newsquawk在其NFP预览中所写，9月份的就业数据是美联储11月3日政策会议之前的最后一份数据，将在美联储预期宣布缩减规模的背景下进行，在这种背景下，一份令人满意的报告可能足以让FOMC批准11月份宣布缩减每月1200亿美元的资产购买规模。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman economists are more bullish than normal, and estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 600k in September, above consensus of +500k, and they note that \"labor demand remains very strong,&nbsp;<b>and we believe the nationwide expiration of enhanced unemployment beneﬁts on September 5 boosted effective labor supply and job growth—as it did in July and August in states that ended federal beneﬁts early.\"</b>As a result, Goldman is assuming a 200k boost in tomorrow’s numbers and a larger boost in October. The bank also believes the reopening of schools contributed to September job growth, by around 150k. Despite these tailwinds, Big Data employment signals were mixed, and dining activity rebounded only marginally.</p><p><blockquote>高盛经济学家比正常情况更加乐观，预计9月份非农就业人数增加60万，高于市场普遍预期的+50万，他们指出“劳动力需求仍然非常强劲，<b>我们相信，9月5日全国范围内强化失业救济金到期，提振了有效劳动力供应和就业增长——就像7月和8月提前结束联邦救济金的州所做的那样。”</b>因此，高盛预计明天的人数将增加20万，10月份的增幅更大。该银行还认为，学校的重新开放促进了9月份就业增长约15万人。尽管有这些有利因素，但大数据就业信号好坏参半，餐饮活动仅小幅反弹。</blockquote></p><p> Labor market proxies have been constructive for the month: ADP’s gauge of payrolls surprised to the upside, although analysts continue to note that the direct relationship between the official data and the ADP’s gauge is tenuous, despite the gap being under 100k over the last three reports. The number of initial jobless claims and continuing claims has eased back between the survey periods of the August and September jobs data, although analysts note that more recent releases have shown an uptick in claims potentially clouding the outlook. The ISM business surveys have signaled employment growth in the month, with manufacturing employment rising into growth territory again, but services sector hiring cooled a little in the month, but remains expansionary; survey commentary continues to allude to a tight labour market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September employment situation report at 13:30BST/08:30EDT on October 8th.</p><p><blockquote>本月劳动力市场指标一直具有建设性：ADP的就业数据出人意料地上升，尽管分析师继续指出，官方数据与ADP数据之间的直接关系很脆弱，尽管过去三份报告的差距低于10万。在8月和9月就业数据调查期间，首次申请失业救济人数和持续申请失业救济人数有所回落，尽管分析师指出，最近发布的数据显示申请失业救济人数上升可能会给前景蒙上阴影。ISM商业调查显示本月就业增长，制造业就业再次升至增长区域，但服务业招聘本月略有降温，但仍保持扩张；调查评论继续暗示劳动力市场紧张。美国劳工统计局将于10月8日13:30 BST/08：30EDT发布9月就业形势报告。</blockquote></p><p> <b>POLICY</b>: The September jobs report might have reduced relevance on trading conditions given that Fed officials have effectively confirmed that, barring a collapse in the jobs data, it is on course to announce a tapering of its asset purchases at the November 3rd meeting. Accordingly, trading risks may be skewed to the downside, rather than to the upside, where a significant payrolls miss may present obstacles to the Fed announcing its taper. Additionally, it is worth being cognizant of how efforts in Washington to raise the debt ceiling are progressing; as yet, officials have not struck a deal, and are in the process of enacting stop gap legislation to allow funding into December; some analysts suggest that the Fed may be reticent to tighten policy in the face of potential default risks.</p><p><blockquote><b>政策</b>：鉴于美联储官员实际上已经确认，除非就业数据崩溃，否则美联储将在11月3日的会议上宣布缩减资产购买规模，9月份就业报告可能会降低对交易状况的相关性。因此，交易风险可能偏向下行，而不是上行，就业人数大幅下降可能会给美联储宣布缩减规模带来障碍。此外，值得认识到华盛顿提高债务上限的努力进展如何；到目前为止，官员们尚未达成协议，正在制定权宜之计立法，以允许资金进入12月；一些分析师暗示，面对潜在的违约风险，美联储可能不愿收紧政策。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PAYROLLS:</b>The consensus looks for 500k nonfarm payrolls to be added to the US economy in September (prev. 235k), which would be a cooler rate of growth than the three- and six-month average rate, though in line with the 12-month average (3-month average is 750k/month, the six-month average is 653k/month, and the 12-month average is 503k/month – that technically at least suggests an improving rate of payrolls growth in recent months).<b>Aggregating the nonfarm payrolls data since March 2020, around 5.33mln Americans remain out of work relative to pre-pandemic levels.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>工资单：</b>市场普遍预计9月份美国经济将增加50万非农就业人数（上一篇。23.5万），这将低于三个月和六个月的平均增长率，尽管与12个月的平均增长率一致（3个月的平均增长率为75万/月，6个月的平均增长率为65.3万/月，12个月的平均增长率为50.3万/月——这至少在技术上表明最近几个月的就业增长率有所改善）。<b>汇总2020年3月以来的非农就业数据，相对于大流行前的水平，约有533万美国人仍处于失业状态。</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>MEASURES OF SLACK:</b>The Unemployment Rate is expected at 5.1% (prev. 5.2%); Labour Force Participation previously at 61.7% vs 63.2% pre-pandemic; U6 measure of underemployment was previously at 8.8% vs 7.0% prepandemic; Employment-population ratio was previously 58.5% vs 61.1% pre-pandemic. These measures of slack are likely to provide more insight into how Fed officials are judging labour market progress, with many in recent months noting that they are closely watching the Underemployment Rate, Participation Rate, and the Employment-Population Ratio for a better handle on the level of slack that remains in the economy. Analysts would be encouraged the closer these get to pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>松弛措施：</b>失业率预计为5.1%（此前为5.2%）；劳动力参与率此前为61.7%，而疫情前为63.2%；U6衡量就业不足的指标此前为8.8%，而疫情前为7.0%；就业与人口比率之前为58.5%，而疫情之前为61.1%。这些宽松指标可能会让人们更深入地了解美联储官员如何判断劳动力市场的进展，许多人最近几个月指出，他们正在密切关注就业不足率、参与率和就业人口比率，以便更好地应对经济中仍然存在的宽松程度。这些数据越接近大流行前的水平，分析师就会受到鼓舞。</blockquote></p><p> <b>EARNINGS:</b>Average Hourly Earnings expected at +0.4% M/M (prev. +0.6%); Average Hourly Earnings expected at +4. 6% Y/Y (prev. +4.3%); Average Workweek Hours expected at 34.7hrs (prev. 34.7hrs). Aggregating the nonfarm payrolls data since March 2020, around 5.33mln Americans still remain out of work relative to pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>收益：</b>平均时薪预计为+0.4%M/M（前值为+0.6%）；平均时薪预计同比+4.6%（前值+4.3%）；平均每周工作时间预计为34.7小时（之前为34.7小时）。汇总2020年3月以来的非农就业数据，相对于大流行前的水平，仍有约533万美国人失业。</blockquote></p><p> <b>ADP:</b>The ADP National Employment Report showed 568k jobs added to the US economy in September, topping expectations for 428k, and a better pace than the prior 340k (revised down from 374k initially reported). ADP itself said that the labor market recovery continued to make progress despite the marked slowdown in the rate of job additions from the 748k pace seen in Q2. It also noted that Leisure &amp; Hospitality remained one of the biggest beneficiaries to the recovery, though said that hiring was still heavily impacted by the trajectory of the pandemic, especially for small firms. ADP thinks that the current bottlenecks in hiring will likely fade as the pandemic situation continues to improve, and that could set the stage for solid job gains in the months ahead. On the data methodology, analysts continue to note that ADP's model incorporates much of the prior official payrolls data, other macroeconomic variables, as well as data from its own payrolls platform; \"Payrolls were soft in August, thanks to the hit to the services sector from the Delta variant, and that weakness likely constrained ADP data,\" Pantheon Macroeconomics said. \"The overshoot to consensus, therefore, suggests that the other inputs to ADP’s model were stronger than we expected, but none of the details are published, so we don’t know if the overshoot was model-driven or due to stronger employment data at ADP’s clients.\"</p><p><blockquote><b>ADP：</b>ADP全国就业报告显示，9月份美国经济新增就业岗位56.8万个，高于预期的42.8万个，好于之前的34万个（从最初报告的37.4万个下调）。ADP本身表示，尽管就业岗位新增速度较第二季度的74.8万个明显放缓，但劳动力市场复苏仍在继续取得进展。报告还指出，休闲和酒店业仍然是经济复苏的最大受益者之一，但表示招聘仍受到疫情轨迹的严重影响，尤其是对小企业而言。ADP认为，随着疫情形势的持续改善，当前的招聘瓶颈可能会消失，这可能为未来几个月的就业增长奠定基础。在数据方法方面，分析师继续指出，ADP的模型包含了许多之前的官方就业数据、其他宏观经济变量以及来自其自己的就业平台的数据；Pantheon Macroeconomics表示：“由于德尔塔变异毒株对服务业的打击，8月份就业人数疲软，这种疲软可能会限制ADP数据。”“因此，超出共识表明ADP模型的其他输入比我们预期的要强，但没有公布任何细节，因此我们不知道超出是模型驱动的还是由于就业数据更强劲在ADP的客户。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS:</b>Initial jobless claims data for the week that coincides with the BLS jobs report survey window saw claims at around 351k – little changed from the 349k for the August jobs data survey window – where analysts said seasonal factors played a role in boosting the weekly data, while there may have been some lingering Hurricane Ida effects; the corresponding continuing claims data has fallen to 2.802mln in the September survey period vs 2.908mln in the August survey period. In aggregate, the data continues to point to declining trend, although in recent weeks the level of jobless claims has been picking up again.</p><p><blockquote><b>首次申请失业救济人数：</b>与BLS就业报告调查窗口一致的当周首次申请失业救济人数约为35.1万人，与8月份就业数据调查窗口的34.9万人相比变化不大，分析师表示，季节性因素在提振每周数据方面发挥了作用，而飓风艾达可能会产生一些挥之不去的影响；9月份调查期间相应的持续申领数据已降至280.2万人，而8月份调查期间为290.8万人。总体而言，数据继续显示下降趋势，尽管最近几周初请失业金人数再次回升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BUSINESS SURVEYS</b>: The Services and Manufacturing ISM reports showed divergent trends in September, with the service sector employment sub-index easing a little to 53.0 from 53.7, signalling growth but at a slower rate, while the manufacturing employment sub-index rose back into expansionary territory, printing 50.2 from 49.0 prior. On the manufacturing sector, ISM said companies were still struggling to meet labour-management plans, but noted some modest signs of progress compared to previous months: \"Less than 5% of comments noted improvements regarding employment, compared to none in August,\" it said, \"an overwhelming majority of panelists indicate their companies are hiring or attempting to hire,\" where around 85% of responses were about seeking additional staffing, while nearly half of the respondents expressed difficulty in filling positions, an increase from August. \"The increasing frequency of comments on turnover rates and retirements continued a trend that began in August,\" ISM said. Meanwhile, in the services sector, employment activity rose for a third straight month; respondents noted that employees were flocking to better-paying jobs and there was a lack of pipeline to replace these staff, while other respondents talked of labor shortages being experienced at all levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>商业调查</b>：9月份服务业和制造业ISM报告显示出不同的趋势，服务业就业分项指数从53.7小幅放缓至53.0，表明增长但速度放缓，而制造业就业分项指数则回升至扩张区域，从之前的49.0升至50.2。在制造业方面，ISM表示，企业仍在努力实现劳资计划，但指出与前几个月相比出现了一些适度的进展迹象：“不到5%的评论指出就业方面有所改善，而8月份没有任何评论”它表示，“绝大多数小组成员表示他们的公司正在招聘或试图招聘”，其中约85%的回复是关于寻求额外人员，而近一半的受访者表示难以填补职位，比8月份有所增加。ISM表示：“有关离职率和退休的评论频率不断增加，延续了8月份开始的趋势。”与此同时，服务业就业活动连续第三个月上升；受访者指出，员工纷纷涌向薪酬更高的工作，并且缺乏替代这些员工的渠道，而其他受访者则谈到各个层面都存在劳动力短缺。</blockquote></p><p> <b>ARGUING FOR A BETTER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT</b>:</p><p><blockquote><b>主张一份好于预期的报告</b>：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>End of federal enhanced unemployment beneﬁts</b>. The expiration of federal beneﬁts in some states boosted labor supply and job-ﬁnding rates over the summer, and all remaining such programs expired on September 5. The July and August indicated a cumulative 6pp boost to job-ﬁnding probabilities from June to August for workers losing $300 top-up payments and a 12pp boost for workers losing all beneﬁts.<b>Some of the 6mn workers who lost some or all beneﬁts on September 5 got a job by September 18—in time to be counted in tomorrow’s data.</b>Goldman assumes a +200k boost to job growth from this channel, with a larger increase in subsequent reports (+1.3mn cumulatively by year end).</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa8e5900cf66c76d4b64055f84e58048\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>联邦强化失业救济金结束</b>一些州联邦福利的到期提振了夏季的劳动力供应和就业率，所有剩余的此类计划都于9月5日到期。7月和8月的数据显示，从6月到8月，失去300美元补充付款的工人的找工作概率累计增加了6个百分点，失去所有福利的工人的找工作概率增加了12个百分点。<b>9月5日失去部分或全部福利的600万工人中，一些人在9月18日之前找到了工作——及时计入明天的数据。</b>高盛假设这一渠道将促进就业增长+20万，在随后的报告中会有更大的增长（到年底累计+130万）。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>School reopening</b>. The largest 100 school districts are all open for in-person learning, catalyzing the return of many previously furloughed teachers and support staff. While full normalization of employment levels would contribute 600k jobs (mom sa, see left panel of the chart below), some janitors and support staff did not return due to hybrid teaching models, and job openings in the sector are only 200k above the pre-crisis level (see right panel). Relatedly, the BLS’s seasonal factors already embed the usual rehiring of education workers on summer layoff, so if fewer janitors returned to work than in a typical September, this would reduce seasonally adjusted job growth, other things equal. Taken together, assume a roughly 150k boost from the reopening of schools in tomorrow’s report.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff3e69723b40e0d372ec2bebecb38b1f\" tg-width=\"799\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>学校重新开学</b>.最大的100个学区都开放了面对面学习，促进了许多以前休假的教师和辅助人员的回归。虽然就业水平完全正常化将创造60万个工作岗位（mom sa，见下图左图），但由于混合教学模式，一些看门人和辅助人员没有返回，该部门的职位空缺仅比危机前水平高出20万个（见右图）。与此相关的是，BLS的季节性因素已经嵌入了夏季裁员中通常重新雇用教育工作者的情况，因此，如果返回工作岗位的看门人比典型的9月份少，在其他条件相同的情况下，这将减少经季节性调整的就业增长。总而言之，假设明天的报告中学校重新开放将增加大约15万人。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Job availability</b>. The Conference Board labor differential—the difference between the percent of respondents saying jobs are plentiful and those saying jobs are hardto get - edged down to 42.5 from 44.4, still an elevated level. Additionally, JOLTS job openings increased by 749k in July to a new record high of 10.9mn.</li>  <li><b>ADP.</b>Private sector employment in the ADP report increased by 568k in September, above consensus expectations for a 430k gain, implying strong growth in the underlying ADP sample. Additionally, schools generally do not use ADP payroll software, arguing for a larger gain from school reopening in the official payroll measure.</li> </ul> <b>ARGUING FOR A WEAKER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT:</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>工作可用性</b>世界大型企业联合会（Conference Board）的劳动力差异——表示工作岗位充足的受访者与表示工作岗位难以获得的受访者之间的差异——从44.4%小幅降至42.5%，仍处于较高水平。此外，7月份JOLTS职位空缺增加了74.9万个，创下1090万个的新高。</li><li><b>ADP.</b>ADP报告中的私营部门就业人数在9月份增加了56.8万人，高于普遍预期的43万人，这意味着基础ADP样本的强劲增长。此外，学校通常不使用ADP工资软件，认为在官方工资措施中，学校重新开放会带来更大的收益。</li></ul><b>主张报告弱于预期：</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Delta variant.</b>Rebounding covid infection rates weighed on services consumption and the labor market in August. And while US case counts began to decline in early September, restaurant seatings on Open Table rebounded only marginally. leisure and hospitality employment rose in September, but probably not at the ~400k monthly pace of June and July.</li>  <li><b>Employer surveys</b>. The employment components of our business surveys were flat to down, whereas we and consensus forecast a pickup in job growth. Goldman's services survey employment tracker remained unchanged at 54.5 and the manufacturing survey employment tracker declined 0.4pt to 57.8. And while the Goldman Sachs Analyst Index (GSAI) decreased 0.8% to 68.5, the employment component rose1.9% to 71.9.</li> </ul> <b>NEUTRAL FACTORS:</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>德尔塔变异毒株.</b>8月份，covid感染率反弹给服务消费和劳动力市场带来压力。尽管美国病例数在9月初开始下降，但开放式餐桌上的餐厅座位仅小幅反弹。休闲和酒店业就业人数在9月份有所增加，但可能不会像6月和7月那样以每月约40万的速度增长。</li><li><b>雇主调查</b>我们的商业调查的就业部分持平或下降，而我们和共识预测就业增长将会回升。高盛服务业调查就业跟踪指数维持在54.5不变，制造业调查就业跟踪指数下降0.4个百分点至57.8。高盛分析师指数(GSAI)下降0.8%至68.5，但就业指数上涨1.9%至71.9。</li></ul><b>中性因素：</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Big Data.</b>High-frequency data on the labor market were mixed between the August and September survey weeks, on net providing little guidance about the underlying pace of job growth. Three of the five measures tracked indicate an at-or-above-consensus gain (Census Small Business Pulse +0.5mn, ADP +0.6mn,Google mobility +2mn), but the Homebase data was an outlier to the downside. At face value, it would indicate a large outright decline in payrolls. The Census Household Pulse (-0.6mn) was also quite weak, though encouragingly, it also indicated a large drop in childcare-related labor supply headwinds as schools reopened.</li>  <li><b>Seasonality.</b>The September seasonal hurdle is relatively low: the BLS adjustment factors generally assume a 600-700k decline in private payrolls (which exclude public schools), compared to around -100k on average in July and August. Continued labor shortages encouraged firms to lay off fewer workers at the end of summer. Partially offsetting this tailwind, the September seasonal factors may have evolved unfavorably due to the crisis—specifically by fitting to last September’s reopening-driven job surge (private payrolls +932k mom sa).</li>  <li><b>Jobless claims.</b>Initial jobless claims fell during the September payroll month, averaging 339k per week vs. 378k in August despite a boost from individuals transitioning or attempting to transition to state programs. Across all employee programs including emergency benefits, continuing claims fell dramatically (-3.3mn)–but again for non-economic reasons (federal enhanced programs expired). Continuing claims in regular state programs decreased 106k from survey week to survey week.</li>  <li><b>Job cuts.</b>Announced layoffs reported by Challenger, Gray &amp; Christmas rebounded 11% month-over-month in September after decreasing by 14% over the prior two months (SA by GS). Nonetheless, layoffs remain near the three-decade low on this measure (in 1993).</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>大数据。</b>在8月和9月的调查周期间，劳动力市场的高频数据好坏参半，对就业增长的基本速度几乎没有提供指导。跟踪的五项指标中有三项表明涨幅等于或高于共识（Census Small Business Pulse+0.5百万，ADP+0.6百万，Google mobility+200百万），但Homebase数据是下行的异常值。从表面上看，这将表明就业人数大幅下降。人口普查家庭脉搏（-60万）也相当弱，尽管令人鼓舞，但它也表明，随着学校重新开放，与儿童保育相关的劳动力供应阻力大幅下降。</li><li><b>季节性。</b>9月的季节门槛比较低：BLS调整系数一般假定私人收入（不包括公立学校）下降60-700K，而7月和8月平均下降10万左右。持续的劳动力短缺鼓励企业在夏末减少裁员。部分抵消了这一顺风，9月份的季节性因素可能因危机而发生了不利的演变——特别是通过适应去年9月重新开放驱动的就业激增（私人就业人数+93.2万环比sa）。</li><li><b>申请失业救济。</b>尽管个人过渡或试图过渡到州计划，但9月份首次申请失业救济人数有所下降，平均每周为33.9万人，而8月份为37.8万人。在包括紧急福利在内的所有员工计划中，持续索赔大幅下降（-330万），但也是出于非经济原因（联邦增强计划到期）。从一个调查周到另一个调查周，常规州项目的持续申请减少了10.6万。</li><li><b>裁员。</b>Challenger、Gray&amp;Christmas报告的宣布裁员人数在前两个月下降14%后，9月份环比反弹11%（SA by GS）。尽管如此，根据这一指标，裁员仍接近30年来的最低点（1993年）。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>September Payrolls Preview: It Will Be A Beat, The Question Is How Big<blockquote>9月就业预览：这将是一个节拍，问题是有多大</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSeptember Payrolls Preview: It Will Be A Beat, The Question Is How Big<blockquote>9月就业预览：这将是一个节拍，问题是有多大</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-08 14:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>After a strong initial claims report and a solid ADP private payrolls print, all eyes turn to the most important economic data point of the week, and the month, Friday's nonfarm payrolls report due at 830am ET on Friday, where consensus expects a 500K print- more than double last month's disappointing 235K print - as well as a drop in the unemployment rate to 5.1% and an increase in average hourly earnings to 4.6%. And unlike last month, when wecorrectly predicted the big miss in August payrolls, this time we agree that tomorrow's report will be a beat, the only question is how big.</p><p><blockquote>在强劲的首次申请失业救济报告和稳健的ADP私人就业数据之后，所有人的目光都转向了本周和本月最重要的经济数据点，即美国东部时间周五上午830点发布的周五非农就业报告，市场普遍预计非农就业报告将达到50万份——是上个月令人失望的23.5万份的两倍多——失业率降至5.1%，平均时薪增加至4.6%。与上个月不同的是，当我们正确预测8月份就业人数将大幅下降时，这次我们同意明天的报告将是一个节拍，唯一的问题是幅度有多大。</blockquote></p><p> Here is a snapshot of what to expect tomorrow:</p><p><blockquote>以下是明天的快照：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Total Payrolls: 500K, Last 235K</li>  <li>Private Payrolls: 450K, Last 243K</li>  <li>Unemployment Rate: 5.1%, Last 5.2%</li>  <li>Labor force participation rate: 61.8%, Last 61.7%</li>  <li>Average Hourly Earnings Y/Y: 4.6%, Last 4.3%</li>  <li>Average Weekly Hours: 34.7, Last 34.7</li> </ul> As&nbsp;Newsquawk&nbsp;writes in its NFP preview, September’s jobs data, the last before the Fed’s November 3rd policy meeting, will be framed in the context of the central bank’s expected taper announcement, where a merely satisfactory report would likely to be enough for the FOMC to greenlight a November announcement to scale-back its USD 120BN/month asset purchases.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>总就业人数：50万，最后23.5万</li><li>私人就业人数：45万，最新24.3万</li><li>失业率：5.1%，去年5.2%</li><li>劳动参与率：61.8%，上次61.7%</li><li>平均时薪同比：4.6%，过去4.3%</li><li>平均每周工作时间：34.7，最后34.7</li></ul>正如Newsquawk在其NFP预览中所写，9月份的就业数据是美联储11月3日政策会议之前的最后一份数据，将在美联储预期宣布缩减规模的背景下进行，在这种背景下，一份令人满意的报告可能足以让FOMC批准11月份宣布缩减每月1200亿美元的资产购买规模。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman economists are more bullish than normal, and estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 600k in September, above consensus of +500k, and they note that \"labor demand remains very strong,&nbsp;<b>and we believe the nationwide expiration of enhanced unemployment beneﬁts on September 5 boosted effective labor supply and job growth—as it did in July and August in states that ended federal beneﬁts early.\"</b>As a result, Goldman is assuming a 200k boost in tomorrow’s numbers and a larger boost in October. The bank also believes the reopening of schools contributed to September job growth, by around 150k. Despite these tailwinds, Big Data employment signals were mixed, and dining activity rebounded only marginally.</p><p><blockquote>高盛经济学家比正常情况更加乐观，预计9月份非农就业人数增加60万，高于市场普遍预期的+50万，他们指出“劳动力需求仍然非常强劲，<b>我们相信，9月5日全国范围内强化失业救济金到期，提振了有效劳动力供应和就业增长——就像7月和8月提前结束联邦救济金的州所做的那样。”</b>因此，高盛预计明天的人数将增加20万，10月份的增幅更大。该银行还认为，学校的重新开放促进了9月份就业增长约15万人。尽管有这些有利因素，但大数据就业信号好坏参半，餐饮活动仅小幅反弹。</blockquote></p><p> Labor market proxies have been constructive for the month: ADP’s gauge of payrolls surprised to the upside, although analysts continue to note that the direct relationship between the official data and the ADP’s gauge is tenuous, despite the gap being under 100k over the last three reports. The number of initial jobless claims and continuing claims has eased back between the survey periods of the August and September jobs data, although analysts note that more recent releases have shown an uptick in claims potentially clouding the outlook. The ISM business surveys have signaled employment growth in the month, with manufacturing employment rising into growth territory again, but services sector hiring cooled a little in the month, but remains expansionary; survey commentary continues to allude to a tight labour market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September employment situation report at 13:30BST/08:30EDT on October 8th.</p><p><blockquote>本月劳动力市场指标一直具有建设性：ADP的就业数据出人意料地上升，尽管分析师继续指出，官方数据与ADP数据之间的直接关系很脆弱，尽管过去三份报告的差距低于10万。在8月和9月就业数据调查期间，首次申请失业救济人数和持续申请失业救济人数有所回落，尽管分析师指出，最近发布的数据显示申请失业救济人数上升可能会给前景蒙上阴影。ISM商业调查显示本月就业增长，制造业就业再次升至增长区域，但服务业招聘本月略有降温，但仍保持扩张；调查评论继续暗示劳动力市场紧张。美国劳工统计局将于10月8日13:30 BST/08：30EDT发布9月就业形势报告。</blockquote></p><p> <b>POLICY</b>: The September jobs report might have reduced relevance on trading conditions given that Fed officials have effectively confirmed that, barring a collapse in the jobs data, it is on course to announce a tapering of its asset purchases at the November 3rd meeting. Accordingly, trading risks may be skewed to the downside, rather than to the upside, where a significant payrolls miss may present obstacles to the Fed announcing its taper. Additionally, it is worth being cognizant of how efforts in Washington to raise the debt ceiling are progressing; as yet, officials have not struck a deal, and are in the process of enacting stop gap legislation to allow funding into December; some analysts suggest that the Fed may be reticent to tighten policy in the face of potential default risks.</p><p><blockquote><b>政策</b>：鉴于美联储官员实际上已经确认，除非就业数据崩溃，否则美联储将在11月3日的会议上宣布缩减资产购买规模，9月份就业报告可能会降低对交易状况的相关性。因此，交易风险可能偏向下行，而不是上行，就业人数大幅下降可能会给美联储宣布缩减规模带来障碍。此外，值得认识到华盛顿提高债务上限的努力进展如何；到目前为止，官员们尚未达成协议，正在制定权宜之计立法，以允许资金进入12月；一些分析师暗示，面对潜在的违约风险，美联储可能不愿收紧政策。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PAYROLLS:</b>The consensus looks for 500k nonfarm payrolls to be added to the US economy in September (prev. 235k), which would be a cooler rate of growth than the three- and six-month average rate, though in line with the 12-month average (3-month average is 750k/month, the six-month average is 653k/month, and the 12-month average is 503k/month – that technically at least suggests an improving rate of payrolls growth in recent months).<b>Aggregating the nonfarm payrolls data since March 2020, around 5.33mln Americans remain out of work relative to pre-pandemic levels.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>工资单：</b>市场普遍预计9月份美国经济将增加50万非农就业人数（上一篇。23.5万），这将低于三个月和六个月的平均增长率，尽管与12个月的平均增长率一致（3个月的平均增长率为75万/月，6个月的平均增长率为65.3万/月，12个月的平均增长率为50.3万/月——这至少在技术上表明最近几个月的就业增长率有所改善）。<b>汇总2020年3月以来的非农就业数据，相对于大流行前的水平，约有533万美国人仍处于失业状态。</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>MEASURES OF SLACK:</b>The Unemployment Rate is expected at 5.1% (prev. 5.2%); Labour Force Participation previously at 61.7% vs 63.2% pre-pandemic; U6 measure of underemployment was previously at 8.8% vs 7.0% prepandemic; Employment-population ratio was previously 58.5% vs 61.1% pre-pandemic. These measures of slack are likely to provide more insight into how Fed officials are judging labour market progress, with many in recent months noting that they are closely watching the Underemployment Rate, Participation Rate, and the Employment-Population Ratio for a better handle on the level of slack that remains in the economy. Analysts would be encouraged the closer these get to pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>松弛措施：</b>失业率预计为5.1%（此前为5.2%）；劳动力参与率此前为61.7%，而疫情前为63.2%；U6衡量就业不足的指标此前为8.8%，而疫情前为7.0%；就业与人口比率之前为58.5%，而疫情之前为61.1%。这些宽松指标可能会让人们更深入地了解美联储官员如何判断劳动力市场的进展，许多人最近几个月指出，他们正在密切关注就业不足率、参与率和就业人口比率，以便更好地应对经济中仍然存在的宽松程度。这些数据越接近大流行前的水平，分析师就会受到鼓舞。</blockquote></p><p> <b>EARNINGS:</b>Average Hourly Earnings expected at +0.4% M/M (prev. +0.6%); Average Hourly Earnings expected at +4. 6% Y/Y (prev. +4.3%); Average Workweek Hours expected at 34.7hrs (prev. 34.7hrs). Aggregating the nonfarm payrolls data since March 2020, around 5.33mln Americans still remain out of work relative to pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>收益：</b>平均时薪预计为+0.4%M/M（前值为+0.6%）；平均时薪预计同比+4.6%（前值+4.3%）；平均每周工作时间预计为34.7小时（之前为34.7小时）。汇总2020年3月以来的非农就业数据，相对于大流行前的水平，仍有约533万美国人失业。</blockquote></p><p> <b>ADP:</b>The ADP National Employment Report showed 568k jobs added to the US economy in September, topping expectations for 428k, and a better pace than the prior 340k (revised down from 374k initially reported). ADP itself said that the labor market recovery continued to make progress despite the marked slowdown in the rate of job additions from the 748k pace seen in Q2. It also noted that Leisure &amp; Hospitality remained one of the biggest beneficiaries to the recovery, though said that hiring was still heavily impacted by the trajectory of the pandemic, especially for small firms. ADP thinks that the current bottlenecks in hiring will likely fade as the pandemic situation continues to improve, and that could set the stage for solid job gains in the months ahead. On the data methodology, analysts continue to note that ADP's model incorporates much of the prior official payrolls data, other macroeconomic variables, as well as data from its own payrolls platform; \"Payrolls were soft in August, thanks to the hit to the services sector from the Delta variant, and that weakness likely constrained ADP data,\" Pantheon Macroeconomics said. \"The overshoot to consensus, therefore, suggests that the other inputs to ADP’s model were stronger than we expected, but none of the details are published, so we don’t know if the overshoot was model-driven or due to stronger employment data at ADP’s clients.\"</p><p><blockquote><b>ADP：</b>ADP全国就业报告显示，9月份美国经济新增就业岗位56.8万个，高于预期的42.8万个，好于之前的34万个（从最初报告的37.4万个下调）。ADP本身表示，尽管就业岗位新增速度较第二季度的74.8万个明显放缓，但劳动力市场复苏仍在继续取得进展。报告还指出，休闲和酒店业仍然是经济复苏的最大受益者之一，但表示招聘仍受到疫情轨迹的严重影响，尤其是对小企业而言。ADP认为，随着疫情形势的持续改善，当前的招聘瓶颈可能会消失，这可能为未来几个月的就业增长奠定基础。在数据方法方面，分析师继续指出，ADP的模型包含了许多之前的官方就业数据、其他宏观经济变量以及来自其自己的就业平台的数据；Pantheon Macroeconomics表示：“由于德尔塔变异毒株对服务业的打击，8月份就业人数疲软，这种疲软可能会限制ADP数据。”“因此，超出共识表明ADP模型的其他输入比我们预期的要强，但没有公布任何细节，因此我们不知道超出是模型驱动的还是由于就业数据更强劲在ADP的客户。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS:</b>Initial jobless claims data for the week that coincides with the BLS jobs report survey window saw claims at around 351k – little changed from the 349k for the August jobs data survey window – where analysts said seasonal factors played a role in boosting the weekly data, while there may have been some lingering Hurricane Ida effects; the corresponding continuing claims data has fallen to 2.802mln in the September survey period vs 2.908mln in the August survey period. In aggregate, the data continues to point to declining trend, although in recent weeks the level of jobless claims has been picking up again.</p><p><blockquote><b>首次申请失业救济人数：</b>与BLS就业报告调查窗口一致的当周首次申请失业救济人数约为35.1万人，与8月份就业数据调查窗口的34.9万人相比变化不大，分析师表示，季节性因素在提振每周数据方面发挥了作用，而飓风艾达可能会产生一些挥之不去的影响；9月份调查期间相应的持续申领数据已降至280.2万人，而8月份调查期间为290.8万人。总体而言，数据继续显示下降趋势，尽管最近几周初请失业金人数再次回升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BUSINESS SURVEYS</b>: The Services and Manufacturing ISM reports showed divergent trends in September, with the service sector employment sub-index easing a little to 53.0 from 53.7, signalling growth but at a slower rate, while the manufacturing employment sub-index rose back into expansionary territory, printing 50.2 from 49.0 prior. On the manufacturing sector, ISM said companies were still struggling to meet labour-management plans, but noted some modest signs of progress compared to previous months: \"Less than 5% of comments noted improvements regarding employment, compared to none in August,\" it said, \"an overwhelming majority of panelists indicate their companies are hiring or attempting to hire,\" where around 85% of responses were about seeking additional staffing, while nearly half of the respondents expressed difficulty in filling positions, an increase from August. \"The increasing frequency of comments on turnover rates and retirements continued a trend that began in August,\" ISM said. Meanwhile, in the services sector, employment activity rose for a third straight month; respondents noted that employees were flocking to better-paying jobs and there was a lack of pipeline to replace these staff, while other respondents talked of labor shortages being experienced at all levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>商业调查</b>：9月份服务业和制造业ISM报告显示出不同的趋势，服务业就业分项指数从53.7小幅放缓至53.0，表明增长但速度放缓，而制造业就业分项指数则回升至扩张区域，从之前的49.0升至50.2。在制造业方面，ISM表示，企业仍在努力实现劳资计划，但指出与前几个月相比出现了一些适度的进展迹象：“不到5%的评论指出就业方面有所改善，而8月份没有任何评论”它表示，“绝大多数小组成员表示他们的公司正在招聘或试图招聘”，其中约85%的回复是关于寻求额外人员，而近一半的受访者表示难以填补职位，比8月份有所增加。ISM表示：“有关离职率和退休的评论频率不断增加，延续了8月份开始的趋势。”与此同时，服务业就业活动连续第三个月上升；受访者指出，员工纷纷涌向薪酬更高的工作，并且缺乏替代这些员工的渠道，而其他受访者则谈到各个层面都存在劳动力短缺。</blockquote></p><p> <b>ARGUING FOR A BETTER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT</b>:</p><p><blockquote><b>主张一份好于预期的报告</b>：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>End of federal enhanced unemployment beneﬁts</b>. The expiration of federal beneﬁts in some states boosted labor supply and job-ﬁnding rates over the summer, and all remaining such programs expired on September 5. The July and August indicated a cumulative 6pp boost to job-ﬁnding probabilities from June to August for workers losing $300 top-up payments and a 12pp boost for workers losing all beneﬁts.<b>Some of the 6mn workers who lost some or all beneﬁts on September 5 got a job by September 18—in time to be counted in tomorrow’s data.</b>Goldman assumes a +200k boost to job growth from this channel, with a larger increase in subsequent reports (+1.3mn cumulatively by year end).</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa8e5900cf66c76d4b64055f84e58048\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>联邦强化失业救济金结束</b>一些州联邦福利的到期提振了夏季的劳动力供应和就业率，所有剩余的此类计划都于9月5日到期。7月和8月的数据显示，从6月到8月，失去300美元补充付款的工人的找工作概率累计增加了6个百分点，失去所有福利的工人的找工作概率增加了12个百分点。<b>9月5日失去部分或全部福利的600万工人中，一些人在9月18日之前找到了工作——及时计入明天的数据。</b>高盛假设这一渠道将促进就业增长+20万，在随后的报告中会有更大的增长（到年底累计+130万）。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>School reopening</b>. The largest 100 school districts are all open for in-person learning, catalyzing the return of many previously furloughed teachers and support staff. While full normalization of employment levels would contribute 600k jobs (mom sa, see left panel of the chart below), some janitors and support staff did not return due to hybrid teaching models, and job openings in the sector are only 200k above the pre-crisis level (see right panel). Relatedly, the BLS’s seasonal factors already embed the usual rehiring of education workers on summer layoff, so if fewer janitors returned to work than in a typical September, this would reduce seasonally adjusted job growth, other things equal. Taken together, assume a roughly 150k boost from the reopening of schools in tomorrow’s report.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff3e69723b40e0d372ec2bebecb38b1f\" tg-width=\"799\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>学校重新开学</b>.最大的100个学区都开放了面对面学习，促进了许多以前休假的教师和辅助人员的回归。虽然就业水平完全正常化将创造60万个工作岗位（mom sa，见下图左图），但由于混合教学模式，一些看门人和辅助人员没有返回，该部门的职位空缺仅比危机前水平高出20万个（见右图）。与此相关的是，BLS的季节性因素已经嵌入了夏季裁员中通常重新雇用教育工作者的情况，因此，如果返回工作岗位的看门人比典型的9月份少，在其他条件相同的情况下，这将减少经季节性调整的就业增长。总而言之，假设明天的报告中学校重新开放将增加大约15万人。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Job availability</b>. The Conference Board labor differential—the difference between the percent of respondents saying jobs are plentiful and those saying jobs are hardto get - edged down to 42.5 from 44.4, still an elevated level. Additionally, JOLTS job openings increased by 749k in July to a new record high of 10.9mn.</li>  <li><b>ADP.</b>Private sector employment in the ADP report increased by 568k in September, above consensus expectations for a 430k gain, implying strong growth in the underlying ADP sample. Additionally, schools generally do not use ADP payroll software, arguing for a larger gain from school reopening in the official payroll measure.</li> </ul> <b>ARGUING FOR A WEAKER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT:</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>工作可用性</b>世界大型企业联合会（Conference Board）的劳动力差异——表示工作岗位充足的受访者与表示工作岗位难以获得的受访者之间的差异——从44.4%小幅降至42.5%，仍处于较高水平。此外，7月份JOLTS职位空缺增加了74.9万个，创下1090万个的新高。</li><li><b>ADP.</b>ADP报告中的私营部门就业人数在9月份增加了56.8万人，高于普遍预期的43万人，这意味着基础ADP样本的强劲增长。此外，学校通常不使用ADP工资软件，认为在官方工资措施中，学校重新开放会带来更大的收益。</li></ul><b>主张报告弱于预期：</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Delta variant.</b>Rebounding covid infection rates weighed on services consumption and the labor market in August. And while US case counts began to decline in early September, restaurant seatings on Open Table rebounded only marginally. leisure and hospitality employment rose in September, but probably not at the ~400k monthly pace of June and July.</li>  <li><b>Employer surveys</b>. The employment components of our business surveys were flat to down, whereas we and consensus forecast a pickup in job growth. Goldman's services survey employment tracker remained unchanged at 54.5 and the manufacturing survey employment tracker declined 0.4pt to 57.8. And while the Goldman Sachs Analyst Index (GSAI) decreased 0.8% to 68.5, the employment component rose1.9% to 71.9.</li> </ul> <b>NEUTRAL FACTORS:</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>德尔塔变异毒株.</b>8月份，covid感染率反弹给服务消费和劳动力市场带来压力。尽管美国病例数在9月初开始下降，但开放式餐桌上的餐厅座位仅小幅反弹。休闲和酒店业就业人数在9月份有所增加，但可能不会像6月和7月那样以每月约40万的速度增长。</li><li><b>雇主调查</b>我们的商业调查的就业部分持平或下降，而我们和共识预测就业增长将会回升。高盛服务业调查就业跟踪指数维持在54.5不变，制造业调查就业跟踪指数下降0.4个百分点至57.8。高盛分析师指数(GSAI)下降0.8%至68.5，但就业指数上涨1.9%至71.9。</li></ul><b>中性因素：</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Big Data.</b>High-frequency data on the labor market were mixed between the August and September survey weeks, on net providing little guidance about the underlying pace of job growth. Three of the five measures tracked indicate an at-or-above-consensus gain (Census Small Business Pulse +0.5mn, ADP +0.6mn,Google mobility +2mn), but the Homebase data was an outlier to the downside. At face value, it would indicate a large outright decline in payrolls. The Census Household Pulse (-0.6mn) was also quite weak, though encouragingly, it also indicated a large drop in childcare-related labor supply headwinds as schools reopened.</li>  <li><b>Seasonality.</b>The September seasonal hurdle is relatively low: the BLS adjustment factors generally assume a 600-700k decline in private payrolls (which exclude public schools), compared to around -100k on average in July and August. Continued labor shortages encouraged firms to lay off fewer workers at the end of summer. Partially offsetting this tailwind, the September seasonal factors may have evolved unfavorably due to the crisis—specifically by fitting to last September’s reopening-driven job surge (private payrolls +932k mom sa).</li>  <li><b>Jobless claims.</b>Initial jobless claims fell during the September payroll month, averaging 339k per week vs. 378k in August despite a boost from individuals transitioning or attempting to transition to state programs. Across all employee programs including emergency benefits, continuing claims fell dramatically (-3.3mn)–but again for non-economic reasons (federal enhanced programs expired). Continuing claims in regular state programs decreased 106k from survey week to survey week.</li>  <li><b>Job cuts.</b>Announced layoffs reported by Challenger, Gray &amp; Christmas rebounded 11% month-over-month in September after decreasing by 14% over the prior two months (SA by GS). Nonetheless, layoffs remain near the three-decade low on this measure (in 1993).</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>大数据。</b>在8月和9月的调查周期间，劳动力市场的高频数据好坏参半，对就业增长的基本速度几乎没有提供指导。跟踪的五项指标中有三项表明涨幅等于或高于共识（Census Small Business Pulse+0.5百万，ADP+0.6百万，Google mobility+200百万），但Homebase数据是下行的异常值。从表面上看，这将表明就业人数大幅下降。人口普查家庭脉搏（-60万）也相当弱，尽管令人鼓舞，但它也表明，随着学校重新开放，与儿童保育相关的劳动力供应阻力大幅下降。</li><li><b>季节性。</b>9月的季节门槛比较低：BLS调整系数一般假定私人收入（不包括公立学校）下降60-700K，而7月和8月平均下降10万左右。持续的劳动力短缺鼓励企业在夏末减少裁员。部分抵消了这一顺风，9月份的季节性因素可能因危机而发生了不利的演变——特别是通过适应去年9月重新开放驱动的就业激增（私人就业人数+93.2万环比sa）。</li><li><b>申请失业救济。</b>尽管个人过渡或试图过渡到州计划，但9月份首次申请失业救济人数有所下降，平均每周为33.9万人，而8月份为37.8万人。在包括紧急福利在内的所有员工计划中，持续索赔大幅下降（-330万），但也是出于非经济原因（联邦增强计划到期）。从一个调查周到另一个调查周，常规州项目的持续申请减少了10.6万。</li><li><b>裁员。</b>Challenger、Gray&amp;Christmas报告的宣布裁员人数在前两个月下降14%后，9月份环比反弹11%（SA by GS）。尽管如此，根据这一指标，裁员仍接近30年来的最低点（1993年）。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/september-payrolls-preview-it-will-be-beat-question-how-big\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/september-payrolls-preview-it-will-be-beat-question-how-big","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135993400","content_text":"After a strong initial claims report and a solid ADP private payrolls print, all eyes turn to the most important economic data point of the week, and the month, Friday's nonfarm payrolls report due at 830am ET on Friday, where consensus expects a 500K print- more than double last month's disappointing 235K print - as well as a drop in the unemployment rate to 5.1% and an increase in average hourly earnings to 4.6%. And unlike last month, when wecorrectly predicted the big miss in August payrolls, this time we agree that tomorrow's report will be a beat, the only question is how big.\nHere is a snapshot of what to expect tomorrow:\n\nTotal Payrolls: 500K, Last 235K\nPrivate Payrolls: 450K, Last 243K\nUnemployment Rate: 5.1%, Last 5.2%\nLabor force participation rate: 61.8%, Last 61.7%\nAverage Hourly Earnings Y/Y: 4.6%, Last 4.3%\nAverage Weekly Hours: 34.7, Last 34.7\n\nAs Newsquawk writes in its NFP preview, September’s jobs data, the last before the Fed’s November 3rd policy meeting, will be framed in the context of the central bank’s expected taper announcement, where a merely satisfactory report would likely to be enough for the FOMC to greenlight a November announcement to scale-back its USD 120BN/month asset purchases.\nGoldman economists are more bullish than normal, and estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 600k in September, above consensus of +500k, and they note that \"labor demand remains very strong, and we believe the nationwide expiration of enhanced unemployment beneﬁts on September 5 boosted effective labor supply and job growth—as it did in July and August in states that ended federal beneﬁts early.\"As a result, Goldman is assuming a 200k boost in tomorrow’s numbers and a larger boost in October. The bank also believes the reopening of schools contributed to September job growth, by around 150k. Despite these tailwinds, Big Data employment signals were mixed, and dining activity rebounded only marginally.\nLabor market proxies have been constructive for the month: ADP’s gauge of payrolls surprised to the upside, although analysts continue to note that the direct relationship between the official data and the ADP’s gauge is tenuous, despite the gap being under 100k over the last three reports. The number of initial jobless claims and continuing claims has eased back between the survey periods of the August and September jobs data, although analysts note that more recent releases have shown an uptick in claims potentially clouding the outlook. The ISM business surveys have signaled employment growth in the month, with manufacturing employment rising into growth territory again, but services sector hiring cooled a little in the month, but remains expansionary; survey commentary continues to allude to a tight labour market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September employment situation report at 13:30BST/08:30EDT on October 8th.\nPOLICY: The September jobs report might have reduced relevance on trading conditions given that Fed officials have effectively confirmed that, barring a collapse in the jobs data, it is on course to announce a tapering of its asset purchases at the November 3rd meeting. Accordingly, trading risks may be skewed to the downside, rather than to the upside, where a significant payrolls miss may present obstacles to the Fed announcing its taper. Additionally, it is worth being cognizant of how efforts in Washington to raise the debt ceiling are progressing; as yet, officials have not struck a deal, and are in the process of enacting stop gap legislation to allow funding into December; some analysts suggest that the Fed may be reticent to tighten policy in the face of potential default risks.\nPAYROLLS:The consensus looks for 500k nonfarm payrolls to be added to the US economy in September (prev. 235k), which would be a cooler rate of growth than the three- and six-month average rate, though in line with the 12-month average (3-month average is 750k/month, the six-month average is 653k/month, and the 12-month average is 503k/month – that technically at least suggests an improving rate of payrolls growth in recent months).Aggregating the nonfarm payrolls data since March 2020, around 5.33mln Americans remain out of work relative to pre-pandemic levels.\nMEASURES OF SLACK:The Unemployment Rate is expected at 5.1% (prev. 5.2%); Labour Force Participation previously at 61.7% vs 63.2% pre-pandemic; U6 measure of underemployment was previously at 8.8% vs 7.0% prepandemic; Employment-population ratio was previously 58.5% vs 61.1% pre-pandemic. These measures of slack are likely to provide more insight into how Fed officials are judging labour market progress, with many in recent months noting that they are closely watching the Underemployment Rate, Participation Rate, and the Employment-Population Ratio for a better handle on the level of slack that remains in the economy. Analysts would be encouraged the closer these get to pre-pandemic levels.\nEARNINGS:Average Hourly Earnings expected at +0.4% M/M (prev. +0.6%); Average Hourly Earnings expected at +4. 6% Y/Y (prev. +4.3%); Average Workweek Hours expected at 34.7hrs (prev. 34.7hrs). Aggregating the nonfarm payrolls data since March 2020, around 5.33mln Americans still remain out of work relative to pre-pandemic levels.\nADP:The ADP National Employment Report showed 568k jobs added to the US economy in September, topping expectations for 428k, and a better pace than the prior 340k (revised down from 374k initially reported). ADP itself said that the labor market recovery continued to make progress despite the marked slowdown in the rate of job additions from the 748k pace seen in Q2. It also noted that Leisure & Hospitality remained one of the biggest beneficiaries to the recovery, though said that hiring was still heavily impacted by the trajectory of the pandemic, especially for small firms. ADP thinks that the current bottlenecks in hiring will likely fade as the pandemic situation continues to improve, and that could set the stage for solid job gains in the months ahead. On the data methodology, analysts continue to note that ADP's model incorporates much of the prior official payrolls data, other macroeconomic variables, as well as data from its own payrolls platform; \"Payrolls were soft in August, thanks to the hit to the services sector from the Delta variant, and that weakness likely constrained ADP data,\" Pantheon Macroeconomics said. \"The overshoot to consensus, therefore, suggests that the other inputs to ADP’s model were stronger than we expected, but none of the details are published, so we don’t know if the overshoot was model-driven or due to stronger employment data at ADP’s clients.\"\nINITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS:Initial jobless claims data for the week that coincides with the BLS jobs report survey window saw claims at around 351k – little changed from the 349k for the August jobs data survey window – where analysts said seasonal factors played a role in boosting the weekly data, while there may have been some lingering Hurricane Ida effects; the corresponding continuing claims data has fallen to 2.802mln in the September survey period vs 2.908mln in the August survey period. In aggregate, the data continues to point to declining trend, although in recent weeks the level of jobless claims has been picking up again.\nBUSINESS SURVEYS: The Services and Manufacturing ISM reports showed divergent trends in September, with the service sector employment sub-index easing a little to 53.0 from 53.7, signalling growth but at a slower rate, while the manufacturing employment sub-index rose back into expansionary territory, printing 50.2 from 49.0 prior. On the manufacturing sector, ISM said companies were still struggling to meet labour-management plans, but noted some modest signs of progress compared to previous months: \"Less than 5% of comments noted improvements regarding employment, compared to none in August,\" it said, \"an overwhelming majority of panelists indicate their companies are hiring or attempting to hire,\" where around 85% of responses were about seeking additional staffing, while nearly half of the respondents expressed difficulty in filling positions, an increase from August. \"The increasing frequency of comments on turnover rates and retirements continued a trend that began in August,\" ISM said. Meanwhile, in the services sector, employment activity rose for a third straight month; respondents noted that employees were flocking to better-paying jobs and there was a lack of pipeline to replace these staff, while other respondents talked of labor shortages being experienced at all levels.\nARGUING FOR A BETTER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT:\n\nEnd of federal enhanced unemployment beneﬁts. The expiration of federal beneﬁts in some states boosted labor supply and job-ﬁnding rates over the summer, and all remaining such programs expired on September 5. The July and August indicated a cumulative 6pp boost to job-ﬁnding probabilities from June to August for workers losing $300 top-up payments and a 12pp boost for workers losing all beneﬁts.Some of the 6mn workers who lost some or all beneﬁts on September 5 got a job by September 18—in time to be counted in tomorrow’s data.Goldman assumes a +200k boost to job growth from this channel, with a larger increase in subsequent reports (+1.3mn cumulatively by year end).\n\n\n\nSchool reopening. The largest 100 school districts are all open for in-person learning, catalyzing the return of many previously furloughed teachers and support staff. While full normalization of employment levels would contribute 600k jobs (mom sa, see left panel of the chart below), some janitors and support staff did not return due to hybrid teaching models, and job openings in the sector are only 200k above the pre-crisis level (see right panel). Relatedly, the BLS’s seasonal factors already embed the usual rehiring of education workers on summer layoff, so if fewer janitors returned to work than in a typical September, this would reduce seasonally adjusted job growth, other things equal. Taken together, assume a roughly 150k boost from the reopening of schools in tomorrow’s report.\n\n\n\nJob availability. The Conference Board labor differential—the difference between the percent of respondents saying jobs are plentiful and those saying jobs are hardto get - edged down to 42.5 from 44.4, still an elevated level. Additionally, JOLTS job openings increased by 749k in July to a new record high of 10.9mn.\nADP.Private sector employment in the ADP report increased by 568k in September, above consensus expectations for a 430k gain, implying strong growth in the underlying ADP sample. Additionally, schools generally do not use ADP payroll software, arguing for a larger gain from school reopening in the official payroll measure.\n\nARGUING FOR A WEAKER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT:\n\nDelta variant.Rebounding covid infection rates weighed on services consumption and the labor market in August. And while US case counts began to decline in early September, restaurant seatings on Open Table rebounded only marginally. leisure and hospitality employment rose in September, but probably not at the ~400k monthly pace of June and July.\nEmployer surveys. The employment components of our business surveys were flat to down, whereas we and consensus forecast a pickup in job growth. Goldman's services survey employment tracker remained unchanged at 54.5 and the manufacturing survey employment tracker declined 0.4pt to 57.8. And while the Goldman Sachs Analyst Index (GSAI) decreased 0.8% to 68.5, the employment component rose1.9% to 71.9.\n\nNEUTRAL FACTORS:\n\nBig Data.High-frequency data on the labor market were mixed between the August and September survey weeks, on net providing little guidance about the underlying pace of job growth. Three of the five measures tracked indicate an at-or-above-consensus gain (Census Small Business Pulse +0.5mn, ADP +0.6mn,Google mobility +2mn), but the Homebase data was an outlier to the downside. At face value, it would indicate a large outright decline in payrolls. The Census Household Pulse (-0.6mn) was also quite weak, though encouragingly, it also indicated a large drop in childcare-related labor supply headwinds as schools reopened.\nSeasonality.The September seasonal hurdle is relatively low: the BLS adjustment factors generally assume a 600-700k decline in private payrolls (which exclude public schools), compared to around -100k on average in July and August. Continued labor shortages encouraged firms to lay off fewer workers at the end of summer. Partially offsetting this tailwind, the September seasonal factors may have evolved unfavorably due to the crisis—specifically by fitting to last September’s reopening-driven job surge (private payrolls +932k mom sa).\nJobless claims.Initial jobless claims fell during the September payroll month, averaging 339k per week vs. 378k in August despite a boost from individuals transitioning or attempting to transition to state programs. Across all employee programs including emergency benefits, continuing claims fell dramatically (-3.3mn)–but again for non-economic reasons (federal enhanced programs expired). Continuing claims in regular state programs decreased 106k from survey week to survey week.\nJob cuts.Announced layoffs reported by Challenger, Gray & Christmas rebounded 11% month-over-month in September after decreasing by 14% over the prior two months (SA by GS). Nonetheless, layoffs remain near the three-decade low on this measure (in 1993).","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":517,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":813664707,"gmtCreate":1630199401509,"gmtModify":1704956877921,"author":{"id":"3578196134540225","authorId":"3578196134540225","name":"zeeling","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/901d745faf2cd5225a6dbed44ad6236a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578196134540225","idStr":"3578196134540225"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/813664707","repostId":"2162733980","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":359,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127104298,"gmtCreate":1624838388214,"gmtModify":1633948258513,"author":{"id":"3578196134540225","authorId":"3578196134540225","name":"zeeling","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/901d745faf2cd5225a6dbed44ad6236a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578196134540225","idStr":"3578196134540225"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool","listText":"Cool","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127104298","repostId":"2146007118","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":268,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":879428995,"gmtCreate":1636765455066,"gmtModify":1636765455258,"author":{"id":"3578196134540225","authorId":"3578196134540225","name":"zeeling","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/901d745faf2cd5225a6dbed44ad6236a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578196134540225","idStr":"3578196134540225"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/879428995","repostId":"2183501235","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":426,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":867107013,"gmtCreate":1633223341273,"gmtModify":1633223341782,"author":{"id":"3578196134540225","authorId":"3578196134540225","name":"zeeling","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/901d745faf2cd5225a6dbed44ad6236a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578196134540225","idStr":"3578196134540225"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/867107013","repostId":"2172643049","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":326,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":340056841,"gmtCreate":1617325024783,"gmtModify":1634521435276,"author":{"id":"3578196134540225","authorId":"3578196134540225","name":"zeeling","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/901d745faf2cd5225a6dbed44ad6236a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578196134540225","idStr":"3578196134540225"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"great","listText":"great","text":"great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/340056841","repostId":"1126549174","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1126549174","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617324814,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1126549174?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-02 08:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Lion? Lamb? March's best stocks, strategies into April<blockquote>狮子？羊羔？三月最佳股票、四月策略</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126549174","media":"seeking alpha","summary":"Not your typical March as the month came 'in like a lamb, and out like a lion.' No, we aren’tdiscuss","content":"<p><ul>  <li>Not your typical March as the month came 'in like a lamb, and out like a lion.' No, we aren’tdiscussing precipitation in March, but the precipitous equity market behavior for the U.S stock market on the precipice of all-time highs and what that means for the top stocks moving into April.</li>  <li>The inverse of the ancient meteorological proverb aptly describes this past month’shedge fund blowup, a once-in-a generationcanal blockageof worldwide trade, aFed pivot, a treasurymarket selloff, historicelectric vehicleandmarijuana legislation, SPAC-mania, the 1-year anniversary of the pandemic-fueled market selloff and a 6% monthly trough to peak move in the S&amp;P 500(NYSEARCA:SPY). That led high beta names to lag in the latter half. But what strategy or selection of stocks would have served you best for the month?</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e8fb5e2cc1f94dd1e56cfa3805a032c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>这不是典型的三月，因为这个月“像羔羊一样进来，像狮子一样出去”。不，我们不是在讨论三月份的降水，而是美国股市处于历史高点边缘的急剧股市行为，以及这对进入四月份的顶级股票意味着什么。</li><li>古老的气象谚语的反义词恰如其分地描述了过去一个月的对冲基金爆炸、全球贸易一代人一次的运河堵塞、美联储转向、国债市场抛售、历史电动汽车和大麻立法、特殊目的收购公司狂热、一周年大流行引发的市场抛售以及标普500（NYSEARCA：SPDR标普500指数ETF）每月从低谷到峰值6%的波动。这导致高贝塔值股票在下半年表现落后。但本月什么策略或股票选择最适合您呢？</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <i>High beta stocks lagged more stable names toward month-end</i></p><p><blockquote><i>接近月底，高贝塔值股票落后于更稳定的股票</i></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The exogenous events described above can throw a wrench into any defined strategy, whether you’re a value or growth investor, play momentum, sentiment, technicals or earnings revisions, or just buy what you know. What explicit strategy would have told you to be long Hartford Financial(NYSE:HIG), Nucor(NYSE:NUE)or Kansas City Southern(NYSE:KSU), and either short or unexposed to Penn National, Discovery Inc.(NASDAQ:DISCA)and Viacom(NASDAQ:VIAC), the respective winners and losers in the S&amp;P 500 in March?</li>  <li>The answer for the above six is insider trading, which we do not condone for obvious reasons.M&amp;A(twice), aboveconsensus earnings,political uncertaintyandhedge fund implosionsdictated the above fortunes and misfortunes.</li>  <li>But to outperform the broader market, the answer this month was value investing. So much so, thatone fascinating aspect of Marchwas how the standard “value stocks” started to screen as “momentum” – those stocks that have registered the strongest performance over the past 12 months. Value, in fact, has been so strong, that the last time they screened as momentum was more than 5 years ago.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b8f03b27e94be3c947993777fe46d91\" tg-width=\"537\" tg-height=\"192\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>上述外生事件可能会影响任何明确的策略，无论您是价值投资者还是成长型投资者，关注动量、情绪、技术面或盈利修正，或者只是购买您知道的东西。什么样的明确策略会告诉您做多Hartford Financial(NYSE：HIG)、Nucor(NYSE：NUE)或Kansas City Southern(NYSE：KSU)，并做空或不投资Penn National、Discovery Inc.（纳斯达克：DISCA）和维亚康姆（纳斯达克：VIAC），分别是3月份标普500的赢家和输家？</li><li>上述六个问题的答案是内幕交易，出于显而易见的原因，我们不会宽恕内幕交易。并购（两次）、高于共识的盈利、政治不确定性和对冲基金内爆决定了上述命运和不幸。</li><li>但要跑赢大盘，本月的答案是价值投资。因此，3月份的一个有趣的方面是标准的“价值股”如何开始被筛选为“动量股”——那些在过去12个月中表现最强劲的股票。事实上，价值如此强劲，以至于他们上一次筛选为momentum是在5年多前。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>And it’s not just March. Value is the best performing factor strategy this year, up nearly 20%. It narrowly beat the performance of the highest levered stocks – those with the highest ratio of debt/total assets – curious bedfellows.</li>  <li>Value itself is not a monolith. It comes in varying forms. For March, a strategy whereby you long stocks in the highest quartile for Ebitda/Enterprise ratios and short those in the lowest quartile returned more than 9%.&nbsp; However, that same strategy in March of last year was the 3rd-worst performing among the 30 factors covered by S&amp;P Global, which could mean some old-fashion mean reversion could have been at play after years of underperformance in the value category.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a753605a6759d9162a39c2c29cbb5763\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"424\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>而且不仅仅是三月。价值是今年表现最好的因子策略，上涨近20%。它以微弱优势击败了杠杆率最高的股票——债务/总资产比率最高的股票——好奇的伙伴。</li><li>价值本身不是铁板一块。它有不同的形式。3月份，做多Ebitda/企业比率最高四分位数的股票并做空最低四分位数的股票的策略回报率超过9%。然而，去年3月的同一策略在S&amp;P Global涵盖的30个因素中表现第三差，这可能意味着在价值类别多年表现不佳后，一些老式的均值回归可能正在发挥作用。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: S&amp;P Global</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：标准普尔全球</i></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>We looked at some specific stocks that performed well, just using the Seeking Alphascreener paired with our proprietary Quant ratings, which happen to have atrack record of outperformancesince inception in 2010. We screened for stocks in the U.S., with more than $500 million market cap, a value rating of A or greater that screened with a bullish or very bullish quant rating.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92f4e08c81e69bcc72ab4bbe4b6d3386\" tg-width=\"1084\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我们研究了一些表现良好的特定股票，仅使用Seeking Alphascreener与我们专有的量化评级相结合，这些股票自2010年成立以来恰好拥有优异表现的记录。我们筛选了市值超过5亿美元、价值评级为A或更高、量化评级为看涨或非常看涨的美国股票。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The top 5 performing names in March that screened in the above criteria at the beginning of March registered more than 15% returns in the month, led by TimkenSteel(NYSE:TMST)at 40%, Amneal Pharma(NYSE:AMRX), Resideo Technologies(NYSE:REZI), Super Micro Computer(NASDAQ:SMCI)and Jabil(NYSE:JBL). That compares to the S&amp;P ‘s 4.26% return.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b1888173c43e95e5960c33d68bbb0fc\" tg-width=\"578\" tg-height=\"660\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>3月初按照上述标准筛选的3月份表现最好的5家公司当月回报率超过15%，其中铁姆肯钢铁公司（纽约证券交易所代码：TMST）为40%，Amneal Pharma（纽约证券交易所代码：AMRX）、Resideo Technologies（纽约证券交易所代码：REZI）、超微计算机（纳斯达克证券交易所代码：SMCI）和捷普（纽约证券交易所代码：JBL）。相比之下，标准普尔指数的回报率为4.26%。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>Of note, 3 of the 12 highest performing names were homebuilders, though their ratings weren’t lifted to a bullish rating until a third of the month had passed. One, Green Brick(NASDAQ:GRBK), was featured among the best value picks by Seeking Alpha's&nbsp;head of quantitative strategies, Steven Cress, in his September discussionabout how many value names screened better than mega-cap tech, like Microsoft(NASDAQ:MSFT)and Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL).</li>  <li>Beyond picking individual stocks, allocating to ETFs that focused on this strategy would have yielded an approximate 6.3% return, outperforming the S&amp;P 500(SP500)by 200bps. The largest value ETFs, found viaSA’s ETF screener,include Vanguard Value ETF(NYSEARCA:VTV), iShares S&amp;P 500 value ETF(NYSEARCA:IVE)&nbsp; and SPDR Portfolio S&amp;P 500 value ETF(NYSEARCA:SPYV), with performance across the instruments of 6.3% during March. That compared with the Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF&nbsp;(NYSEARCA:VOO)up 2.75% on the month.</li> </ul> <ul>  <li>Another value ETF, the iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF(NYSEARCA:IWD), lagged at 4.9%. Hamstringing its performance was likely the higher concentration in tech, which was impacted by the aforementioned treasury selloff this month. Higher interest rates hit growth names particularly hard. Compared to VTV, which boasts 3x more of a concentration in financials than in tech, IWD is nearer to 2x. The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite rose just 0.4% in March. The Invesco QQQ ETF(NASDAQ:QQQ), which tracks large cap tech, was down 1.6% on the month.</li> </ul> The Future</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>值得注意的是，12家表现最好的公司中有3家是房屋建筑商，尽管他们的评级直到本月三分之一后才被提升至看涨评级。其中之一是Green Brick（纳斯达克股票代码：GRBK），Seeking Alpha量化策略主管Steven Cress在9月份的讨论中被评为最佳价值精选之一，该讨论涉及有多少价值股比微软（纳斯达克股票代码：MSFT）和苹果（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）。</li><li>除了挑选个股之外，配置专注于此策略的ETF将产生约6.3%的回报率，比标普500(SP500)高出200个基点。viaSA的ETF筛选机构发现，最大的价值ETF包括Vanguard价值ETF(NYSEARCA：VTV)、iShares标普500价值ETF(NYSEARCA：IVE)和SPDR Portfolio标普500价值ETF(NYSEARCA：SPYV)，各工具的表现为6.3%三月。相比之下，先锋标普500 ETF(NYSEARCA：VOO)本月上涨2.75%。</li></ul><ul><li>另一只价值ETF iShares Russell 1000价值ETF(NYSEARCA：IWD)落后4.9%。削弱其业绩的可能是科技股的集中度较高，而科技股受到了本月上述国债抛售的影响。利率上升对成长型公司的打击尤其严重。与VTV相比，VTV在金融领域的集中度是科技领域的3倍，而IWD则接近2倍。以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数3月份仅上涨0.4%。追踪大盘科技股的景顺QQQ ETF（纳斯达克股票代码：QQQ）本月下跌1.6%。</li></ul>未来</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>And how does that set up for April? Something to consider is seasonality --not surprising given the beginning of earnings season in just two weeks, which may set the tone. It is also bullish: Since 1928, April is the second-best month of average returns of the year, BofA analysts wrote this week.</li>  <li>And on a shorter-term horizon, there is seasonality intra-month. The analysts also surfaced research that the first 10 days of each month typically outperform the last 10. That pattern for January-March has already held. But for April more broadly, LPL Financial’s Ryan Detrick highlighted that in the last 15 years, the S&amp;P 500 has closed higher in 14 of those 15 Aprils.</li>  <li>That isn’t to say that value specifically will outperform, but it speaks broadly to market and portfolio performance. Morgan Stanley in a late March note remarked that “violent rotations” left many portfolios “gored” this year despite the fact that the rotations themselves were “fundamentally triggered.” They upgraded Consumer Staples names as part of that note to account for their expectations that inflation, personal income and GDP rates of growth will slow in the quarter/quarter and year/year comparisons to come.</li>  <li>If you believe, like JP Morgan analysts, that the trends for value will remain intact and that the risks for a pullback are low, it may be worth screening some stocks to determine the best opportunity for your portfolio.</li>  <li>When we conducted an analysis with the highest quant rating using the above screen criteria (expanded to include names outside the U.S.) the stocks appear to your humble author to be bets on a global recovery. Shipowner Danaos Corp.(NYSE:DAC), Resolute Forest Products(NYSE:RFP), TimkenSteel (TMST), publisher Gannett Co.(NYSE:GCI)and Barclays PLC(NYSE:BCS). Danaos just so happens to be relevant to therecent Suez Canal blockage.</li>  <li>For those who fancy stocks with a heftier market cap (i.e. &gt;$5B), BNP Paribas(OTCQX:BNPQY), Impala Platinum(OTCQX:IMPUY), ING Groep(NYSE:ING)and Vale S.A.(NYSE:VALE)are among those on the list; cyclical names if you had to name any.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93d46ccc40c50c865d9caa7e49cbfe9e\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"352\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>四月的情况如何？需要考虑的是季节性——考虑到财报季将在短短两周内开始，这并不奇怪，这可能会定下基调。这也是看涨的：美国银行分析师本周写道，自1928年以来，4月是一年中平均回报率第二好的月份。</li><li>从短期来看，月内存在季节性。分析师还浮出水面的研究表明，每个月的前10天通常优于后10天。1月至3月的这种模式已经存在。但从更广泛的4月份来看，LPL Financial的Ryan Detrick强调，在过去15年中，标普500在这15个4月中有14个收高。</li><li>这并不是说价值会跑赢大盘，但它广泛地说明了市场和投资组合的表现。摩根士丹利在3月底的一份报告中表示，尽管轮换本身是“从根本上触发的”，但今年“暴力轮换”导致许多投资组合“陷入困境”。作为该报告的一部分，他们升级了必需消费品名称，以考虑到他们对未来季度和年度比较中通胀、个人收入和GDP增长率将放缓的预期。</li><li>如果您像摩根大通分析师一样相信价值趋势将保持不变并且回调风险较低，那么可能值得筛选一些股票以确定您投资组合的最佳机会。</li><li>当我们使用上述筛选标准（扩展到包括美国以外的名称）进行具有最高量化评级的分析时，在您谦逊的作者看来，这些股票似乎是对全球复苏的押注。船东Danaos Corp.（纽约证券交易所代码：DAC）、Resolute Forest Products（纽约证券交易所代码：RFP）、铁姆肯钢铁公司（TMST）、出版商Gannett Co.（纽约证券交易所代码：GCI）和巴克莱银行（纽约证券交易所代码：BCS）。达瑙斯恰好与最近的苏伊士运河堵塞有关。</li><li>对于那些喜欢市值较大（即&gt;50亿美元）股票的人来说，法国巴黎银行(OTCQX：BNPQY)、Impala Platinum(OTCQX：IMPUY)、ING Groep(NYSE：ING)和Vale S.A.(NYSE：VALE)都在名单上；循环名称，如果你必须说出任何名称。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Stocks screened in a vacuum may not make sense without looking more broadly. BNP Paribas in its latest outlook piece is &nbsp;“more optimistic” about global growth than they were 3 months ago, with U.S. forecasts “up sharply.” And just this past week, U.S. President Bidenput forth an ambitious infrastructure plan, which calls for additional stimulus to be added to the economy. Naturally, it is subject to political will and there are risks it dies on the vine or passes the Senate in some slimmed down version. But BofA, in discussing the prospects for further stimulus, advised owning GDP-sensitive cyclical stocks, that are strong on value, and benefit from higher capital expenditures.</li>  <li>Stay tuned next month for another look at the best stocks and strategies. There’s also something to be gleaned by how at year-end, thesame companies keep making appearances&nbsp; on the winners and losers lists.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>如果不从更广泛的角度来看，在真空中筛选的股票可能没有意义。法国巴黎银行在其最新的展望文章中对全球经济增长比三个月前“更加乐观”，其中美国的预测“大幅上调”。就在上周，美国总统拜登提出了一项雄心勃勃的基础设施计划，评级为经济提供额外刺激。自然，它受制于政治意愿，存在着它夭折或以某种精简版本在参议院通过的风险。但美国银行在讨论进一步刺激的前景时，建议持有对GDP敏感的周期性股票，这些股票价值强劲，并受益于更高的资本支出。</li><li>下个月请继续关注，再次了解最佳股票和策略。同样的公司在年底如何不断出现在赢家和输家名单上，也可以收集到一些东西。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Lion? Lamb? March's best stocks, strategies into April<blockquote>狮子？羊羔？三月最佳股票、四月策略</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLion? Lamb? March's best stocks, strategies into April<blockquote>狮子？羊羔？三月最佳股票、四月策略</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seeking alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-02 08:53</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><ul>  <li>Not your typical March as the month came 'in like a lamb, and out like a lion.' No, we aren’tdiscussing precipitation in March, but the precipitous equity market behavior for the U.S stock market on the precipice of all-time highs and what that means for the top stocks moving into April.</li>  <li>The inverse of the ancient meteorological proverb aptly describes this past month’shedge fund blowup, a once-in-a generationcanal blockageof worldwide trade, aFed pivot, a treasurymarket selloff, historicelectric vehicleandmarijuana legislation, SPAC-mania, the 1-year anniversary of the pandemic-fueled market selloff and a 6% monthly trough to peak move in the S&amp;P 500(NYSEARCA:SPY). That led high beta names to lag in the latter half. But what strategy or selection of stocks would have served you best for the month?</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e8fb5e2cc1f94dd1e56cfa3805a032c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>这不是典型的三月，因为这个月“像羔羊一样进来，像狮子一样出去”。不，我们不是在讨论三月份的降水，而是美国股市处于历史高点边缘的急剧股市行为，以及这对进入四月份的顶级股票意味着什么。</li><li>古老的气象谚语的反义词恰如其分地描述了过去一个月的对冲基金爆炸、全球贸易一代人一次的运河堵塞、美联储转向、国债市场抛售、历史电动汽车和大麻立法、特殊目的收购公司狂热、一周年大流行引发的市场抛售以及标普500（NYSEARCA：SPDR标普500指数ETF）每月从低谷到峰值6%的波动。这导致高贝塔值股票在下半年表现落后。但本月什么策略或股票选择最适合您呢？</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <i>High beta stocks lagged more stable names toward month-end</i></p><p><blockquote><i>接近月底，高贝塔值股票落后于更稳定的股票</i></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The exogenous events described above can throw a wrench into any defined strategy, whether you’re a value or growth investor, play momentum, sentiment, technicals or earnings revisions, or just buy what you know. What explicit strategy would have told you to be long Hartford Financial(NYSE:HIG), Nucor(NYSE:NUE)or Kansas City Southern(NYSE:KSU), and either short or unexposed to Penn National, Discovery Inc.(NASDAQ:DISCA)and Viacom(NASDAQ:VIAC), the respective winners and losers in the S&amp;P 500 in March?</li>  <li>The answer for the above six is insider trading, which we do not condone for obvious reasons.M&amp;A(twice), aboveconsensus earnings,political uncertaintyandhedge fund implosionsdictated the above fortunes and misfortunes.</li>  <li>But to outperform the broader market, the answer this month was value investing. So much so, thatone fascinating aspect of Marchwas how the standard “value stocks” started to screen as “momentum” – those stocks that have registered the strongest performance over the past 12 months. Value, in fact, has been so strong, that the last time they screened as momentum was more than 5 years ago.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b8f03b27e94be3c947993777fe46d91\" tg-width=\"537\" tg-height=\"192\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>上述外生事件可能会影响任何明确的策略，无论您是价值投资者还是成长型投资者，关注动量、情绪、技术面或盈利修正，或者只是购买您知道的东西。什么样的明确策略会告诉您做多Hartford Financial(NYSE：HIG)、Nucor(NYSE：NUE)或Kansas City Southern(NYSE：KSU)，并做空或不投资Penn National、Discovery Inc.（纳斯达克：DISCA）和维亚康姆（纳斯达克：VIAC），分别是3月份标普500的赢家和输家？</li><li>上述六个问题的答案是内幕交易，出于显而易见的原因，我们不会宽恕内幕交易。并购（两次）、高于共识的盈利、政治不确定性和对冲基金内爆决定了上述命运和不幸。</li><li>但要跑赢大盘，本月的答案是价值投资。因此，3月份的一个有趣的方面是标准的“价值股”如何开始被筛选为“动量股”——那些在过去12个月中表现最强劲的股票。事实上，价值如此强劲，以至于他们上一次筛选为momentum是在5年多前。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>And it’s not just March. Value is the best performing factor strategy this year, up nearly 20%. It narrowly beat the performance of the highest levered stocks – those with the highest ratio of debt/total assets – curious bedfellows.</li>  <li>Value itself is not a monolith. It comes in varying forms. For March, a strategy whereby you long stocks in the highest quartile for Ebitda/Enterprise ratios and short those in the lowest quartile returned more than 9%.&nbsp; However, that same strategy in March of last year was the 3rd-worst performing among the 30 factors covered by S&amp;P Global, which could mean some old-fashion mean reversion could have been at play after years of underperformance in the value category.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a753605a6759d9162a39c2c29cbb5763\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"424\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>而且不仅仅是三月。价值是今年表现最好的因子策略，上涨近20%。它以微弱优势击败了杠杆率最高的股票——债务/总资产比率最高的股票——好奇的伙伴。</li><li>价值本身不是铁板一块。它有不同的形式。3月份，做多Ebitda/企业比率最高四分位数的股票并做空最低四分位数的股票的策略回报率超过9%。然而，去年3月的同一策略在S&amp;P Global涵盖的30个因素中表现第三差，这可能意味着在价值类别多年表现不佳后，一些老式的均值回归可能正在发挥作用。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: S&amp;P Global</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：标准普尔全球</i></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>We looked at some specific stocks that performed well, just using the Seeking Alphascreener paired with our proprietary Quant ratings, which happen to have atrack record of outperformancesince inception in 2010. We screened for stocks in the U.S., with more than $500 million market cap, a value rating of A or greater that screened with a bullish or very bullish quant rating.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92f4e08c81e69bcc72ab4bbe4b6d3386\" tg-width=\"1084\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我们研究了一些表现良好的特定股票，仅使用Seeking Alphascreener与我们专有的量化评级相结合，这些股票自2010年成立以来恰好拥有优异表现的记录。我们筛选了市值超过5亿美元、价值评级为A或更高、量化评级为看涨或非常看涨的美国股票。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The top 5 performing names in March that screened in the above criteria at the beginning of March registered more than 15% returns in the month, led by TimkenSteel(NYSE:TMST)at 40%, Amneal Pharma(NYSE:AMRX), Resideo Technologies(NYSE:REZI), Super Micro Computer(NASDAQ:SMCI)and Jabil(NYSE:JBL). That compares to the S&amp;P ‘s 4.26% return.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b1888173c43e95e5960c33d68bbb0fc\" tg-width=\"578\" tg-height=\"660\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>3月初按照上述标准筛选的3月份表现最好的5家公司当月回报率超过15%，其中铁姆肯钢铁公司（纽约证券交易所代码：TMST）为40%，Amneal Pharma（纽约证券交易所代码：AMRX）、Resideo Technologies（纽约证券交易所代码：REZI）、超微计算机（纳斯达克证券交易所代码：SMCI）和捷普（纽约证券交易所代码：JBL）。相比之下，标准普尔指数的回报率为4.26%。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>Of note, 3 of the 12 highest performing names were homebuilders, though their ratings weren’t lifted to a bullish rating until a third of the month had passed. One, Green Brick(NASDAQ:GRBK), was featured among the best value picks by Seeking Alpha's&nbsp;head of quantitative strategies, Steven Cress, in his September discussionabout how many value names screened better than mega-cap tech, like Microsoft(NASDAQ:MSFT)and Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL).</li>  <li>Beyond picking individual stocks, allocating to ETFs that focused on this strategy would have yielded an approximate 6.3% return, outperforming the S&amp;P 500(SP500)by 200bps. The largest value ETFs, found viaSA’s ETF screener,include Vanguard Value ETF(NYSEARCA:VTV), iShares S&amp;P 500 value ETF(NYSEARCA:IVE)&nbsp; and SPDR Portfolio S&amp;P 500 value ETF(NYSEARCA:SPYV), with performance across the instruments of 6.3% during March. That compared with the Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF&nbsp;(NYSEARCA:VOO)up 2.75% on the month.</li> </ul> <ul>  <li>Another value ETF, the iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF(NYSEARCA:IWD), lagged at 4.9%. Hamstringing its performance was likely the higher concentration in tech, which was impacted by the aforementioned treasury selloff this month. Higher interest rates hit growth names particularly hard. Compared to VTV, which boasts 3x more of a concentration in financials than in tech, IWD is nearer to 2x. The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite rose just 0.4% in March. The Invesco QQQ ETF(NASDAQ:QQQ), which tracks large cap tech, was down 1.6% on the month.</li> </ul> The Future</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>值得注意的是，12家表现最好的公司中有3家是房屋建筑商，尽管他们的评级直到本月三分之一后才被提升至看涨评级。其中之一是Green Brick（纳斯达克股票代码：GRBK），Seeking Alpha量化策略主管Steven Cress在9月份的讨论中被评为最佳价值精选之一，该讨论涉及有多少价值股比微软（纳斯达克股票代码：MSFT）和苹果（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）。</li><li>除了挑选个股之外，配置专注于此策略的ETF将产生约6.3%的回报率，比标普500(SP500)高出200个基点。viaSA的ETF筛选机构发现，最大的价值ETF包括Vanguard价值ETF(NYSEARCA：VTV)、iShares标普500价值ETF(NYSEARCA：IVE)和SPDR Portfolio标普500价值ETF(NYSEARCA：SPYV)，各工具的表现为6.3%三月。相比之下，先锋标普500 ETF(NYSEARCA：VOO)本月上涨2.75%。</li></ul><ul><li>另一只价值ETF iShares Russell 1000价值ETF(NYSEARCA：IWD)落后4.9%。削弱其业绩的可能是科技股的集中度较高，而科技股受到了本月上述国债抛售的影响。利率上升对成长型公司的打击尤其严重。与VTV相比，VTV在金融领域的集中度是科技领域的3倍，而IWD则接近2倍。以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数3月份仅上涨0.4%。追踪大盘科技股的景顺QQQ ETF（纳斯达克股票代码：QQQ）本月下跌1.6%。</li></ul>未来</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>And how does that set up for April? Something to consider is seasonality --not surprising given the beginning of earnings season in just two weeks, which may set the tone. It is also bullish: Since 1928, April is the second-best month of average returns of the year, BofA analysts wrote this week.</li>  <li>And on a shorter-term horizon, there is seasonality intra-month. The analysts also surfaced research that the first 10 days of each month typically outperform the last 10. That pattern for January-March has already held. But for April more broadly, LPL Financial’s Ryan Detrick highlighted that in the last 15 years, the S&amp;P 500 has closed higher in 14 of those 15 Aprils.</li>  <li>That isn’t to say that value specifically will outperform, but it speaks broadly to market and portfolio performance. Morgan Stanley in a late March note remarked that “violent rotations” left many portfolios “gored” this year despite the fact that the rotations themselves were “fundamentally triggered.” They upgraded Consumer Staples names as part of that note to account for their expectations that inflation, personal income and GDP rates of growth will slow in the quarter/quarter and year/year comparisons to come.</li>  <li>If you believe, like JP Morgan analysts, that the trends for value will remain intact and that the risks for a pullback are low, it may be worth screening some stocks to determine the best opportunity for your portfolio.</li>  <li>When we conducted an analysis with the highest quant rating using the above screen criteria (expanded to include names outside the U.S.) the stocks appear to your humble author to be bets on a global recovery. Shipowner Danaos Corp.(NYSE:DAC), Resolute Forest Products(NYSE:RFP), TimkenSteel (TMST), publisher Gannett Co.(NYSE:GCI)and Barclays PLC(NYSE:BCS). Danaos just so happens to be relevant to therecent Suez Canal blockage.</li>  <li>For those who fancy stocks with a heftier market cap (i.e. &gt;$5B), BNP Paribas(OTCQX:BNPQY), Impala Platinum(OTCQX:IMPUY), ING Groep(NYSE:ING)and Vale S.A.(NYSE:VALE)are among those on the list; cyclical names if you had to name any.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93d46ccc40c50c865d9caa7e49cbfe9e\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"352\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>四月的情况如何？需要考虑的是季节性——考虑到财报季将在短短两周内开始，这并不奇怪，这可能会定下基调。这也是看涨的：美国银行分析师本周写道，自1928年以来，4月是一年中平均回报率第二好的月份。</li><li>从短期来看，月内存在季节性。分析师还浮出水面的研究表明，每个月的前10天通常优于后10天。1月至3月的这种模式已经存在。但从更广泛的4月份来看，LPL Financial的Ryan Detrick强调，在过去15年中，标普500在这15个4月中有14个收高。</li><li>这并不是说价值会跑赢大盘，但它广泛地说明了市场和投资组合的表现。摩根士丹利在3月底的一份报告中表示，尽管轮换本身是“从根本上触发的”，但今年“暴力轮换”导致许多投资组合“陷入困境”。作为该报告的一部分，他们升级了必需消费品名称，以考虑到他们对未来季度和年度比较中通胀、个人收入和GDP增长率将放缓的预期。</li><li>如果您像摩根大通分析师一样相信价值趋势将保持不变并且回调风险较低，那么可能值得筛选一些股票以确定您投资组合的最佳机会。</li><li>当我们使用上述筛选标准（扩展到包括美国以外的名称）进行具有最高量化评级的分析时，在您谦逊的作者看来，这些股票似乎是对全球复苏的押注。船东Danaos Corp.（纽约证券交易所代码：DAC）、Resolute Forest Products（纽约证券交易所代码：RFP）、铁姆肯钢铁公司（TMST）、出版商Gannett Co.（纽约证券交易所代码：GCI）和巴克莱银行（纽约证券交易所代码：BCS）。达瑙斯恰好与最近的苏伊士运河堵塞有关。</li><li>对于那些喜欢市值较大（即&gt;50亿美元）股票的人来说，法国巴黎银行(OTCQX：BNPQY)、Impala Platinum(OTCQX：IMPUY)、ING Groep(NYSE：ING)和Vale S.A.(NYSE：VALE)都在名单上；循环名称，如果你必须说出任何名称。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Stocks screened in a vacuum may not make sense without looking more broadly. BNP Paribas in its latest outlook piece is &nbsp;“more optimistic” about global growth than they were 3 months ago, with U.S. forecasts “up sharply.” And just this past week, U.S. President Bidenput forth an ambitious infrastructure plan, which calls for additional stimulus to be added to the economy. Naturally, it is subject to political will and there are risks it dies on the vine or passes the Senate in some slimmed down version. But BofA, in discussing the prospects for further stimulus, advised owning GDP-sensitive cyclical stocks, that are strong on value, and benefit from higher capital expenditures.</li>  <li>Stay tuned next month for another look at the best stocks and strategies. There’s also something to be gleaned by how at year-end, thesame companies keep making appearances&nbsp; on the winners and losers lists.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>如果不从更广泛的角度来看，在真空中筛选的股票可能没有意义。法国巴黎银行在其最新的展望文章中对全球经济增长比三个月前“更加乐观”，其中美国的预测“大幅上调”。就在上周，美国总统拜登提出了一项雄心勃勃的基础设施计划，评级为经济提供额外刺激。自然，它受制于政治意愿，存在着它夭折或以某种精简版本在参议院通过的风险。但美国银行在讨论进一步刺激的前景时，建议持有对GDP敏感的周期性股票，这些股票价值强劲，并受益于更高的资本支出。</li><li>下个月请继续关注，再次了解最佳股票和策略。同样的公司在年底如何不断出现在赢家和输家名单上，也可以收集到一些东西。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3678351-march-best-stocks-strategies-april\">seeking alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3678351-march-best-stocks-strategies-april","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126549174","content_text":"Not your typical March as the month came 'in like a lamb, and out like a lion.' No, we aren’tdiscussing precipitation in March, but the precipitous equity market behavior for the U.S stock market on the precipice of all-time highs and what that means for the top stocks moving into April.\nThe inverse of the ancient meteorological proverb aptly describes this past month’shedge fund blowup, a once-in-a generationcanal blockageof worldwide trade, aFed pivot, a treasurymarket selloff, historicelectric vehicleandmarijuana legislation, SPAC-mania, the 1-year anniversary of the pandemic-fueled market selloff and a 6% monthly trough to peak move in the S&P 500(NYSEARCA:SPY). That led high beta names to lag in the latter half. But what strategy or selection of stocks would have served you best for the month?\n\n\nHigh beta stocks lagged more stable names toward month-end\n\nThe exogenous events described above can throw a wrench into any defined strategy, whether you’re a value or growth investor, play momentum, sentiment, technicals or earnings revisions, or just buy what you know. What explicit strategy would have told you to be long Hartford Financial(NYSE:HIG), Nucor(NYSE:NUE)or Kansas City Southern(NYSE:KSU), and either short or unexposed to Penn National, Discovery Inc.(NASDAQ:DISCA)and Viacom(NASDAQ:VIAC), the respective winners and losers in the S&P 500 in March?\nThe answer for the above six is insider trading, which we do not condone for obvious reasons.M&A(twice), aboveconsensus earnings,political uncertaintyandhedge fund implosionsdictated the above fortunes and misfortunes.\nBut to outperform the broader market, the answer this month was value investing. So much so, thatone fascinating aspect of Marchwas how the standard “value stocks” started to screen as “momentum” – those stocks that have registered the strongest performance over the past 12 months. Value, in fact, has been so strong, that the last time they screened as momentum was more than 5 years ago.\n\n\n\nAnd it’s not just March. Value is the best performing factor strategy this year, up nearly 20%. It narrowly beat the performance of the highest levered stocks – those with the highest ratio of debt/total assets – curious bedfellows.\nValue itself is not a monolith. It comes in varying forms. For March, a strategy whereby you long stocks in the highest quartile for Ebitda/Enterprise ratios and short those in the lowest quartile returned more than 9%.  However, that same strategy in March of last year was the 3rd-worst performing among the 30 factors covered by S&P Global, which could mean some old-fashion mean reversion could have been at play after years of underperformance in the value category.\n\n\nSource: S&P Global\n\nWe looked at some specific stocks that performed well, just using the Seeking Alphascreener paired with our proprietary Quant ratings, which happen to have atrack record of outperformancesince inception in 2010. We screened for stocks in the U.S., with more than $500 million market cap, a value rating of A or greater that screened with a bullish or very bullish quant rating.\n\n\n\nThe top 5 performing names in March that screened in the above criteria at the beginning of March registered more than 15% returns in the month, led by TimkenSteel(NYSE:TMST)at 40%, Amneal Pharma(NYSE:AMRX), Resideo Technologies(NYSE:REZI), Super Micro Computer(NASDAQ:SMCI)and Jabil(NYSE:JBL). That compares to the S&P ‘s 4.26% return.\n\n\n\nOf note, 3 of the 12 highest performing names were homebuilders, though their ratings weren’t lifted to a bullish rating until a third of the month had passed. One, Green Brick(NASDAQ:GRBK), was featured among the best value picks by Seeking Alpha's head of quantitative strategies, Steven Cress, in his September discussionabout how many value names screened better than mega-cap tech, like Microsoft(NASDAQ:MSFT)and Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL).\nBeyond picking individual stocks, allocating to ETFs that focused on this strategy would have yielded an approximate 6.3% return, outperforming the S&P 500(SP500)by 200bps. The largest value ETFs, found viaSA’s ETF screener,include Vanguard Value ETF(NYSEARCA:VTV), iShares S&P 500 value ETF(NYSEARCA:IVE)  and SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 value ETF(NYSEARCA:SPYV), with performance across the instruments of 6.3% during March. That compared with the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:VOO)up 2.75% on the month.\n\n\nAnother value ETF, the iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF(NYSEARCA:IWD), lagged at 4.9%. Hamstringing its performance was likely the higher concentration in tech, which was impacted by the aforementioned treasury selloff this month. Higher interest rates hit growth names particularly hard. Compared to VTV, which boasts 3x more of a concentration in financials than in tech, IWD is nearer to 2x. The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite rose just 0.4% in March. The Invesco QQQ ETF(NASDAQ:QQQ), which tracks large cap tech, was down 1.6% on the month.\n\nThe Future\n\nAnd how does that set up for April? Something to consider is seasonality --not surprising given the beginning of earnings season in just two weeks, which may set the tone. It is also bullish: Since 1928, April is the second-best month of average returns of the year, BofA analysts wrote this week.\nAnd on a shorter-term horizon, there is seasonality intra-month. The analysts also surfaced research that the first 10 days of each month typically outperform the last 10. That pattern for January-March has already held. But for April more broadly, LPL Financial’s Ryan Detrick highlighted that in the last 15 years, the S&P 500 has closed higher in 14 of those 15 Aprils.\nThat isn’t to say that value specifically will outperform, but it speaks broadly to market and portfolio performance. Morgan Stanley in a late March note remarked that “violent rotations” left many portfolios “gored” this year despite the fact that the rotations themselves were “fundamentally triggered.” They upgraded Consumer Staples names as part of that note to account for their expectations that inflation, personal income and GDP rates of growth will slow in the quarter/quarter and year/year comparisons to come.\nIf you believe, like JP Morgan analysts, that the trends for value will remain intact and that the risks for a pullback are low, it may be worth screening some stocks to determine the best opportunity for your portfolio.\nWhen we conducted an analysis with the highest quant rating using the above screen criteria (expanded to include names outside the U.S.) the stocks appear to your humble author to be bets on a global recovery. Shipowner Danaos Corp.(NYSE:DAC), Resolute Forest Products(NYSE:RFP), TimkenSteel (TMST), publisher Gannett Co.(NYSE:GCI)and Barclays PLC(NYSE:BCS). Danaos just so happens to be relevant to therecent Suez Canal blockage.\nFor those who fancy stocks with a heftier market cap (i.e. >$5B), BNP Paribas(OTCQX:BNPQY), Impala Platinum(OTCQX:IMPUY), ING Groep(NYSE:ING)and Vale S.A.(NYSE:VALE)are among those on the list; cyclical names if you had to name any.\n\n\n\nStocks screened in a vacuum may not make sense without looking more broadly. BNP Paribas in its latest outlook piece is  “more optimistic” about global growth than they were 3 months ago, with U.S. forecasts “up sharply.” And just this past week, U.S. President Bidenput forth an ambitious infrastructure plan, which calls for additional stimulus to be added to the economy. Naturally, it is subject to political will and there are risks it dies on the vine or passes the Senate in some slimmed down version. But BofA, in discussing the prospects for further stimulus, advised owning GDP-sensitive cyclical stocks, that are strong on value, and benefit from higher capital expenditures.\nStay tuned next month for another look at the best stocks and strategies. There’s also something to be gleaned by how at year-end, thesame companies keep making appearances  on the winners and losers lists.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":470,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":606362779,"gmtCreate":1638836128698,"gmtModify":1638836129260,"author":{"id":"3578196134540225","authorId":"3578196134540225","name":"zeeling","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/901d745faf2cd5225a6dbed44ad6236a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578196134540225","idStr":"3578196134540225"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/606362779","repostId":"2189686612","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":521,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":810322744,"gmtCreate":1629945989288,"gmtModify":1633681249283,"author":{"id":"3578196134540225","authorId":"3578196134540225","name":"zeeling","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/901d745faf2cd5225a6dbed44ad6236a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578196134540225","idStr":"3578196134540225"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/810322744","repostId":"1197778368","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":482,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":804611633,"gmtCreate":1627953550922,"gmtModify":1633754955481,"author":{"id":"3578196134540225","authorId":"3578196134540225","name":"zeeling","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/901d745faf2cd5225a6dbed44ad6236a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578196134540225","idStr":"3578196134540225"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool","listText":"Cool","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/804611633","repostId":"2156114224","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":222,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":604094063,"gmtCreate":1639277033250,"gmtModify":1639277033860,"author":{"id":"3578196134540225","authorId":"3578196134540225","name":"zeeling","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/901d745faf2cd5225a6dbed44ad6236a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578196134540225","idStr":"3578196134540225"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604094063","repostId":"2190719536","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":646,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":605508587,"gmtCreate":1639186527025,"gmtModify":1639186527615,"author":{"id":"3578196134540225","authorId":"3578196134540225","name":"zeeling","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/901d745faf2cd5225a6dbed44ad6236a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578196134540225","idStr":"3578196134540225"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/605508587","repostId":"2190767366","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":715,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":842258142,"gmtCreate":1636186338234,"gmtModify":1636186338978,"author":{"id":"3578196134540225","authorId":"3578196134540225","name":"zeeling","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/901d745faf2cd5225a6dbed44ad6236a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578196134540225","idStr":"3578196134540225"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/842258142","repostId":"1173813098","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":505,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":840382285,"gmtCreate":1635589964496,"gmtModify":1635589964716,"author":{"id":"3578196134540225","authorId":"3578196134540225","name":"zeeling","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/901d745faf2cd5225a6dbed44ad6236a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578196134540225","idStr":"3578196134540225"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/840382285","repostId":"2179223688","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":510,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":880882711,"gmtCreate":1631031765833,"gmtModify":1632904440667,"author":{"id":"3578196134540225","authorId":"3578196134540225","name":"zeeling","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/901d745faf2cd5225a6dbed44ad6236a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578196134540225","idStr":"3578196134540225"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880882711","repostId":"1130130857","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130130857","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631007146,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1130130857?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-07 17:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Strategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?<blockquote>策略师表示，今年秋天股市可能会陷入困境。现在买什么？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130130857","media":"Barron's","summary":"What a year this has been for the markets!Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and  a mostly receding pandemic, theS&P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.Tailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnin","content":"<p>What a year this has been for the markets! Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and (until recently) a mostly receding pandemic, theS&amp;P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.</p><p><blockquote>对于市场来说，这是多么美好的一年啊！在货币和财政刺激、经济和盈利增长以及（直到最近）疫情基本消退的推动下，标准普尔500股票指数已上涨20%，连续七个月上涨，并创下50多个高点。除此之外，去年市场从2020年3月的低点反弹了68%。</blockquote></p><p> Tailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnings growth are likely to decelerate through the end of the year. What’s more, theFederal Reserve has all but promised to start tapering its bond buyingin coming months, and the Biden administration has proposed hiking corporate and personal tax rates. None of this is apt to sit well with holders of increasingly pricey shares.</p><p><blockquote>顺风依然存在，但逆风现在迫在眉睫，可能会减缓股市的上涨。刺激支出已经见顶，经济和企业盈利增长可能会在今年年底放缓。此外，美联储几乎承诺在未来几个月开始缩减债券购买规模，拜登政府也提议提高企业和个人税率。这些都不会让股价越来越贵的持有者满意。</blockquote></p><p> In other words,brace for a volatile fallin which conflicting forces buffet stocks, bonds, and investors. “The everything rally is behind us,” says Saira Malik, chief investment officer of global equities at Nuveen. “It’s not going to be a sharply rising economic tide that lifts all boats from here.”</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，要做好迎接波动性下跌的准备，这种冲突迫使巴菲特股票、债券和投资者。Nuveen全球股票首席投资官Saira Malik表示：“一切反弹都已经过去。”“这不会是一场急剧上升的经济浪潮，将所有船只从这里抬起。”</blockquote></p><p> That’s the general consensus among the six market strategists and chief investment officers whom<i>Barron’s</i>recently consulted. All see the S&amp;P 500 ending the year near Thursday’s close of 4536. Their average target: 4585.</p><p><blockquote>这是六位市场策略师和首席投资官的普遍共识<i>巴伦周刊</i>最近咨询过。所有人都认为标普500将在周四收盘价4536点附近结束今年。他们的平均目标是：4585。</blockquote></p><p> Next year’s gains look muted, as well, relative to recent trends. The group expects the S&amp;P 500 to tack on another 6% in 2022, rising to about 4800.</p><p><blockquote>相对于最近的趋势，明年的涨幅看起来也很微弱。该集团预计2022年标普500将再增加6%，升至约4800。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb61c7b74b9b0f18a019afb4ac44ad59\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With stocks trading for about 21 times the coming year’s expected earnings,bonds yielding little, and cash yielding less than nothing after accounting for inflation, investors face tough asset-allocation decisions. In place of the “everything rally,” which lifted fast-growing tech stocks, no-growth meme stocks, and the Dogecoins of the digital world, our market watchers recommend focusing on “quality” investments. In equities, that means shares of businesses with solid balance sheets, expanding profit margins, and ample and recurring free cash flow. Even if the averages do little in coming months, these stocks are likely to shine.</p><p><blockquote>由于股票交易价格约为来年预期收益的21倍，债券收益率很低，考虑通货膨胀后现金收益率低于零，投资者面临着艰难的资产配置决策。我们的市场观察人士建议关注“优质”投资，而不是提振快速增长的科技股、无增长的模因股和数字世界的狗狗币的“一切反弹”。在股票方面，这意味着拥有稳健的资产负债表、不断扩大的利润率以及充足且经常性的自由现金流的企业的股票。即使未来几个月平均指数表现不大，这些股票也可能会大放异彩。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market’s massive rally in the past year was a gift of sorts from the Federal Reserve, which flooded the financial system with money to stave off theeconomic damage wrought by the Covid pandemic. Since March 2020, the U.S. central bank has been buying a combined $120 billion a month of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, while keeping its benchmark federal-funds rate target at 0% to 0.25%. These moves have depressed bond yields and pushed investors into riskier assets, including stocks.</p><p><blockquote>过去一年股市的大幅上涨是美联储的一份礼物，美联储向金融体系注入了大量资金，以避免新冠疫情造成的经济损失。自2020年3月以来，美联储每月购买总计1200亿美元的美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券，同时将基准联邦基金利率目标维持在0%至0.25%。这些举措压低了债券收益率，并推动投资者进入包括股票在内的风险较高的资产。</blockquote></p><p> Fed Chairman Jerome <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">Powell</a> has said that the central bank might begin to wind down, or taper, its emergency asset purchases sometime in the coming quarters, a move that could roil risk assets of all sorts. “For us, it’s very simple: Tapering is tightening,” says Mike Wilson, chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist atMorgan Stanley.“It’s the first step away from maximum accommodation [by the Fed]. They’re being very calculated about it this time, but the bottom line is that it should have a negative effect on equity valuations.”</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">鲍威尔</a>曾表示，央行可能会在未来几个季度的某个时候开始逐步减少或缩减紧急资产购买，此举可能会扰乱各类风险资产。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)首席投资官兼首席美国股票策略师威尔逊(Mike Wilson)表示：“对我们来说，缩减规模很简单：缩减规模就是紧缩。这是（美联储）距离最大限度宽松政策迈出的第一步。他们这次对此非常谨慎，但底线是，这应该会对股票估值产生负面影响。”</blockquote></p><p> The government’s stimulus spending, too, has peaked, the strategists note. Supplemental federal unemployment benefits of $300 a week expire as of Sept. 6. Although Congress seems likely to pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill this fall, the near-term economic impact will pale in comparison to the multiple rounds of stimulus introduced since March 2020.</p><p><blockquote>策略师指出，政府的刺激支出也已见顶。每周300美元的补充联邦失业救济金将于9月6日到期。尽管国会似乎有可能在今年秋天通过一项两党基础设施法案，但与2020年3月以来推出的多轮刺激措施相比，近期的经济影响将相形见绌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2cb76c498c1c4c980139e3d0514c261\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The bill includes about $550 billion in new spending—a fraction of the trillions authorized by previous laws—and it will be spread out over many years. The short-term boost that infrastructure stimulus will give to consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70% of U.S. growth domestic product, won’t come close to what the economy saw after millions of Americans received checks from the government this past year.</p><p><blockquote>该法案包括约5500亿美元的新支出——只是之前法律授权的数万亿美元的一小部分——并且将分散在许多年内。基础设施刺激措施将给消费者支出带来的短期提振，占美国国内生产总值增长的近70%，但不会接近去年数百万美国人收到政府支票后的经济增长。</blockquote></p><p> A budget bill approved by Democrats only should follow the infrastructure bill, and include spending to support Medicare expansion, child-care funding, free community-college tuition, public housing, and climate-related measures, among other party priorities. Congress could vote to lift taxes on corporations and high-earning individuals to offset that spending—another near-term risk to the market.</p><p><blockquote>仅由民主党批准的预算法案应该遵循基础设施法案，并包括支持医疗保险扩张、儿童保育资金、免费社区大学学费、公共住房和气候相关措施以及其他政党优先事项的支出。国会可能会投票提高企业和高收入个人的税收，以抵消这些支出——这是市场面临的另一个近期风险。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6693da658db16059fc99e08a7531675f\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Other politically charged issues likewise could derail equities this fall. Congress needs to pass a debt-ceiling increase to fund the government, and a stop-gap spending bill later this month to avoid a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">Washington</a> shutdown in October.</p><p><blockquote>今年秋天，其他带有政治色彩的问题同样可能会让股市脱轨。国会需要通过提高债务上限来为政府提供资金，并在本月晚些时候通过一项权宜之计的支出法案来避免<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">华盛顿</a>10月停工。</blockquote></p><p> For now, our market experts are relatively sanguine about the economic impact of the Delta variant of Covid-19. As long as vaccines remain effective in minimizing severe infections that lead to hospitalizations and deaths, the negative effects of the current Covid wave will be limited largely to the travel industry and movie theaters, they say. Wall Street’s base case for the market doesn’t include a renewed wave of lockdowns that would undermine economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>目前，我们的市场专家对Covid-19德尔塔变异毒株的经济影响相对乐观。他们说，只要疫苗在最大限度地减少导致住院和死亡的严重感染方面仍然有效，当前Covid浪潮的负面影响将主要限于旅游业和电影院。华尔街对市场的基本假设不包括会破坏经济增长的新一波封锁。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation has been a hot topic at the Fed and among investors, partly because it has been running so hot of late. The U.S. consumer price index rose at an annualized 5.4% in both June and July—a spike the Fed calls transitory, although others aren’t so sure. The strategists are taking Powell’s side of the argument; they expect inflation to fall significantly next year. Their forecasts fall between 2.5% and 3.5%, which they consider manageable for consumers and companies, and an acceptable side effect of rapid economic growth. An inflation rate above 2.5%, however, combined with Fed tapering, would mean that now ultralow bond yields should rise.</p><p><blockquote>通胀一直是美联储和投资者的热门话题，部分原因是通胀最近非常火爆。6月和7月，美国消费者价格指数年化涨幅为5.4%，这是美联储评级暂时性的飙升，尽管其他人不太确定。策略师们站在鲍威尔一边。他们预计明年通胀将大幅下降。他们的预测在2.5%至3.5%之间，他们认为这对消费者和公司来说是可控的，也是经济快速增长的可接受的副作用。然而，通胀率高于2.5%，加上美联储缩减规模，意味着目前超低的债券收益率应该会上升。</blockquote></p><p> “We think inflation will continue to run hotter than it has since the financial crisis, but it’s hard for us to see inflation much over 2.5% once many of the reopening-related pressures start to dissipate,” says Michael Fredericks, head of income investing for theBlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group. “So bond yields do need to move up, but that will happen gradually.”</p><p><blockquote>收益投资主管迈克尔·弗雷德里克斯(Michael Fredericks)表示：“我们认为通胀将继续比金融危机以来更高，但一旦许多与重新开放相关的压力开始消散，我们很难看到通胀率远高于2.5%。”贝莱德多资产策略集团。“因此债券收益率确实需要上升，但这将逐渐发生。”</blockquote></p><p> The strategists see the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbing to around 1.65% by year end. That’s about 35 basis points—or hundredths of a percentage point—above current levels, but below the 1.75% that the yield reached at its March 2021 highs. By next year, the 10-year Treasury could yield 2%, the group says. Those aren’t big moves in absolute terms, but they’re meaningful for&nbsp;the bond market—and could be even more so for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>策略师预计，到年底，10年期美国国债收益率将攀升至1.65%左右。这比当前水平高出约35个基点（即百分之几个百分点），但低于2021年3月收益率高点时达到的1.75%。该组织表示，到明年，10年期国债收益率可能达到2%。从绝对值来看，这些举措并不是很大，但对债券市场来说意义重大，对股票来说可能更是如此。</blockquote></p><p> Rising yields tend to weigh on stock valuations for two reasons. Higher-yielding bonds offer competition to stocks, and companies’ future earnings are worthless in the present when discounting them at a higher rate. Still, a 10-year yield around 2% won’t be enough to knock stock valuations down to pre-Covid levels. Even if yields climb, market strategists see the price/earnings multiple of the S&amp;P 500 holding well above its 30-year average of 16 times forward earnings. The index’s forward P/E topped 23 last fall.</p><p><blockquote>收益率上升往往会打压股票估值，原因有二。高收益债券提供了与股票的竞争，当以更高的利率贴现时，公司的未来收益在目前毫无价值。尽管如此，2%左右的10年期国债收益率仍不足以将股票估值降至新冠疫情爆发前的水平。即使收益率攀升，市场策略师认为标普500的市盈率仍远高于预期市盈率16倍的30年平均水平。去年秋天，该指数的远期市盈率突破23。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e08d24cb421d7cc13debd76a9c6fea01\" tg-width=\"660\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As long as 10-year Treasury yields stay in the 2% range, the S&amp;P 500 should be able to command a forward P/E in the high teens, strategists say. A return to the 16-times long-term average isn’t in the cards until there is more pressure from much higher yields—or something else that causes stocks to fall.</p><p><blockquote>策略师表示，只要10年期国债收益率保持在2%的范围内，标普500的远期市盈率就应该能够在十几岁左右。除非收益率高得多或其他导致股市下跌的因素带来更大压力，否则不可能回到16倍的长期平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> If yields surge past 2% or 2.25%, investors could start to question equity valuations more seriously, says&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">State</a> Street’schief portfolio strategist, Gaurav Mallik: “We haven’t seen [the 10-year yield] above 2% for some time now, so that’s an important sentiment level for investors.”</p><p><blockquote>表示，如果收益率飙升超过2%或2.25%，投资者可能会开始更严重地质疑股票估值<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">国家</a>Street首席投资组合策略师Gaurav Mallik：“我们已经有一段时间没有看到（10年期国债收益率）超过2%了，因此这对投资者来说是一个重要的情绪水平。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93ff6490069ab5dc1b4057f1ff7966f3\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Wilson is more concerned, noting that the stock market’s valuation risk is asymmetric: “It’s very unlikely that multiples are going to go up, and there’s a good chance that they go down more than 10% given the deceleration in growth and where we are in the cycle,” he says</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊更担心，他指出，股市的估值风险是不对称的：“市盈率不太可能上升，考虑到增长放缓和我们所处的位置，市盈率很有可能下降10%以上。在周期中，”他说</blockquote></p><p> If 16 to 23 times forward earnings is the range, he adds, “you’re already at the very high end of that. There’s more potential risk than reward.”</p><p><blockquote>他补充道，如果预期市盈率为16至23倍，“你已经处于这个范围的很高端。潜在风险大于回报。”</blockquote></p><p> Some P/E-multiple compression is baked into all six strategists’ forecasts, heaping greater importance on the path of profit growth. On average, the strategists expect S&amp;P 500 earnings to jump 46% this year, to about $204, after last year’s earnings depression. That could be followed by a more normalized gain of 9% in 2022, to about $222.50.</p><p><blockquote>所有六位策略师的预测都包含了一些市盈率倍数的压缩，这对利润增长路径变得更加重要。平均而言，策略师预计，继去年的盈利低迷之后，标普500今年的盈利将增长46%，至204美元左右。随后，2022年可能会上涨9%，达到约222.50美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> A potential headwind would be a higher federal corporate-tax rate in 2022. The details of Democrats’ spending and taxation plans will be worked out in the coming weeks, and investors can expect to hear a lot more about potential tax increases. Several strategists see a 25% federal rate on corporate profits as a likely compromise figure, above the 21% in place since 2018, but below the 28% sought by the Biden administration.</p><p><blockquote>一个潜在的阻力是2022年联邦企业税率上升。民主党支出和税收计划的细节将在未来几周内制定出来，投资者可以期待听到更多有关潜在增税的消息。几位策略师认为，25%的联邦企业利润税率可能是一个妥协数字，高于2018年以来实施的21%，但低于拜登政府寻求的28%。</blockquote></p><p> An increase of that magnitude would shave about 5% off S&amp;P 500 earnings next year. The index could drop by a similar amount as the passage of the Democrats’ reconciliation bill nears this fall, but the impact should be limited to that initial correction. As with the tax cuts in December 2017, the change should be a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-time event for the market, some strategists predict.</p><p><blockquote>如此幅度的增长将使标普500明年的盈利减少约5%。随着今年秋天民主党和解法案的通过，该指数可能会下跌类似的幅度，但影响应该仅限于最初的调整。与2017年12月的减税一样，这一变化应该是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>——一些策略师预测，市场的时间事件。</blockquote></p><p> These concerns aside, investors shouldn’t miss the bigger picture: The U.S. economy is in good shape and growing robustly. The strategists expect gross domestic product to rise 6.3% this year and about 4% in 2022. “The cyclical uplift and above-trend growth will continue at least through 2022, and we want to be biased toward assets that have that exposure,” says Mallik.</p><p><blockquote>抛开这些担忧不谈，投资者不应错过更大的图景：美国经济状况良好，增长强劲。策略师预计今年国内生产总值将增长6.3%，2022年将增长约4%。Mallik表示：“周期性上涨和高于趋势的增长将至少持续到2022年，我们希望偏向于具有这种风险的资产。”</blockquote></p><p>   “We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next. When GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”— Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets  The State Street strategist recommends overweighting materials, financials, and technology in investment portfolios. That approach includes both economically sensitive companies, such as banks and miners, and steady growers in the tech sector.</p><p><blockquote>“今明两年我们的经济将会火爆。当GDP增长高于平均水平时，价值会超过增长，周期性会超过防御性。”—Lori Calvasina，加拿大皇家银行资本市场道富策略师建议在投资组合中增持材料、金融和科技股。这种方法既包括银行和矿业公司等对经济敏感的公司，也包括科技行业的稳定增长者。</blockquote></p><p> RBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, likewise takes a barbell approach, with both cyclical and growth exposure. Her preferred sectors are energy, financials, and technology.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)美国股票策略主管洛里·卡尔瓦西纳(Lori Calvasina)同样采取杠铃法，同时投资周期性和成长性。她最喜欢的行业是能源、金融和技术。</blockquote></p><p> “Valuations are still a lot more attractive in financials and energy than growth [sectors such as technology or consumer discretionary,]” Calvasina says. “The catalyst in the near term is getting out of the current Covid wave... We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next, and traditionally when GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳表示：“金融和能源行业的估值仍然比增长行业（科技或非必需消费品等行业）更具吸引力。”“近期的催化剂是摆脱当前的新冠疫情浪潮……今年和明年我们将迎来经济火爆，传统上，当GDP增长高于平均水平时，价值会跑赢增长，周期性会跑赢防御性。”</blockquote></p><p> But the focus on quality will be pivotal, especially moving into the second half of 2022. That’s when the Fed is likely to hike interest rates for the first time in this cycle. By 2023, the economy could return to pre-Covid growth on the order of 2%.</p><p><blockquote>但对质量的关注将是关键，尤其是进入2022年下半年。届时美联储可能会在本周期内首次加息。到2023年，经济可能会恢复到新冠疫情前2%左右的增长。</blockquote></p><p> “The historical playbook is that coming out of a recession, you tend to see low-quality outperformance that lasts about a year, then leadership flips back to high quality,” Calvasina says. “But that transition from low quality back to high quality tends to be very bumpy.”</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳表示：“历史上的剧本是，走出衰退后，你往往会看到持续一年左右的低质量优异表现，然后领导力又会恢复到高质量。”“但从低质量回到高质量的转变往往非常坎坷。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Shopping List for Fall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>秋季购物清单</b></blockquote></p><p> Most strategists favor a combination of economically sensitive stocks and steady growers, including tech shares. Financials should do well, particularly if bond yields rise.</p><p><blockquote>大多数策略师青睐对经济敏感的股票和稳定增长的股票（包括科技股）的组合。金融股应该会表现良好，特别是如果债券收益率上升的话。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a54c4bd114c1a5f7f700d1fc14d30d8e\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Although stocks with quality attributes have outperformed the market this summer, according to a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a> analysis, the quality factor has lagged since positive vaccine news was first reported last November.</p><p><blockquote>尽管今年夏天具有质量属性的股票表现优于大盘，但根据一家<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">贝莱德</a>分析，自去年11月首次报道疫苗正面消息以来，质量因素一直滞后。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re moving into a mid-cycle environment, when underlying economic growth remains strong but momentum begins to decelerate,” BlackRock’s Fredericks says. “Our research shows that quality stocks perform particularly well in such a period.”</p><p><blockquote>贝莱德的弗雷德里克斯表示：“我们正在进入周期中期环境，基本经济增长仍然强劲，但势头开始减速。”“我们的研究表明，优质股票在这样的时期表现尤其出色。”</blockquote></p><p> He recommends overweighting profitable technology companies; financials, including banks, and consumer staples and industrials with those quality characteristics.</p><p><blockquote>他建议增持盈利的科技公司；金融，包括银行，以及具有这些质量特征的消费品和工业。</blockquote></p><p> For <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>’s head of equity strategy, Christopher Harvey, a mix of post-pandemic beneficiaries and defensive exposure is the way to go. He constructed a basket of stocks with lower-than-average volatility—which should outperform during periods of market uncertainty or stress this fall—and high “Covid beta,” or sensitivity to good or bad news about the pandemic. One requirement; The stocks had to be rated the equivalent of Buy by Wells Fargo’s equity analysts.</p><p><blockquote>为了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>股票策略主管克里斯托弗·哈维(Christopher Harvey)表示，大流行后受益者和防御性敞口的结合才是正确的选择。他构建了一篮子波动性低于平均水平的股票——在今年秋季市场不确定性或压力时期，这些股票应该会跑赢大盘——并且“新冠贝塔值”较高，即对有关大流行的好消息或坏消息的敏感性。一个要求；富国银行的股票分析师必须将这些股票评级为“买入”。</blockquote></p><p> “There’s near-term economic uncertainty, interest-rate uncertainty, and Covid risk, and generally we’re in a seasonally weaker part of the year around September,” says Harvey. “If we can balance low vol and high Covid beta, we can mitigate a lot of the upcoming uncertainty and volatility around timing of several of those catalysts. Longer-term, though, we still want to have that [reopening exposure.]”</p><p><blockquote>哈维表示：“近期经济存在不确定性、利率不确定性和新冠病毒风险，一般来说，我们正处于9月份左右的季节性疲软时期。”“如果我们能够平衡低波动性和高Covid贝塔值，我们就可以减轻其中几种催化剂时机即将到来的不确定性和波动性。不过，从长远来看，我们仍然希望[重新开放风险。]”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Harvey’s list of low-volatility stocks with high Covid beta includesApple(AAPL),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>(BAC),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">Northern</a> Trust(NTRS),Lowe’s(LOW),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a> Holdings(IQV), andMasco(MAS).</p><p><blockquote>哈维列出的具有高新贝塔值的低波动性股票名单包括苹果(AAPL)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>（BAC），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">北方的</a>信托(NTRS)、劳氏(LOW)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a>控股公司（IQV）和马斯科公司（MAS）。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, banks are the most frequently recommended group for the months ahead. TheInvesco KBW Bankexchange-traded fund (KBWB) provides broad exposure to the sector in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，银行是未来几个月最常被推荐的群体。Invesco KBW银行交易所交易基金(KBWB)提供对美国该行业的广泛投资。</blockquote></p><p> “We like the valuations [and] credit quality; they are now allowed to buy back shares and increase dividends, and there’s higher Covid beta,” says Harvey.</p><p><blockquote>“我们喜欢估值和信用质量；他们现在被允许回购股票并增加股息，而且新冠贝塔值更高，”哈维说。</blockquote></p><p> Cheaper valuations mean less potential downside in a market correction. And, contrary to much of the rest of the stock market, higher interest rates would be a tailwind for the banks, which could then charge more for loans.</p><p><blockquote>较低的估值意味着市场调整中潜在的下行空间较小。而且，与股市的其他大部分地区相反，更高的利率将成为银行的顺风车，银行可能会收取更高的贷款费用。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">Healthcare</a> stocks also have some fans. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">Healthcare</a> has both defensive and growth attributes to it,” Wilson says. “You’re paying a lot less per unit of growth in healthcare today than you are in other sectors. So we think it provides good balance in this market when we’re worried about valuation.” Health insurerHumana(HUM) makes Wilson’s “Fresh Money Buy List” of stocks Buy-rated by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a> analysts and fitting his macro views.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">医疗保健</a>股票也有一些粉丝。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">医疗保健</a>具有防御性和成长性，”威尔逊说。“如今，医疗保健行业每单位增长支付的费用比其他行业低得多。因此，我们认为，当我们担心估值时，它为这个市场提供了良好的平衡。”健康保险公司Humana(HUM)跻身威尔逊“新鲜资金买入名单”股票买入评级<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师并符合他的宏观观点。</blockquote></p><p> Nuveen’s Malik is also looking toward health care for relatively underpriced growth exposure, namely in the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology groups. She points toSeagen(SGEN), which is focused on oncology drugs and could be an attractive acquisition target for a pharma giant.</p><p><blockquote>Nuveen的Malik还将目光投向医疗保健领域，以获得相对低估的增长机会，即制药和生物技术领域。她指出了Seagen(SGEN)，该公司专注于肿瘤药物，可能成为制药巨头有吸引力的收购目标。</blockquote></p><p> Malik also likesAbbVie(ABBV) which trades at an undemanding eight times forward earnings and sports a 4.7% dividend yield. The coming expiration of patents on its blockbuster anti-inflammatory drug Humira has kept some investors away, but Malik is confident that management can limit the damage and sees promising drugs in development at the $200 billion company.</p><p><blockquote>马利克还喜欢艾伯维(ABBV)，该公司的预期市盈率为8倍，股息收益率为4.7%。其重磅抗炎药修美乐(Humira)的专利即将到期，这让一些投资者望而却步，但马利克相信管理层能够限制损失，并看到这家价值2000亿美元的公司正在开发有前途的药物。</blockquote></p><p> Both stocks have had a tough time in recent days. Seagen fell more than 8% last week, to around $152, on news that its co-founder and CEO sold a large number of shares recently. AndAbbVietanked 7% Wednesday, to $112.27, after the Food and Drug Administration required new warning labels for JAK inhibitors, a type of anti-rheumatoid drug that includes one of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">AbbVie</a>’s most promising post-Humira products.</p><p><blockquote>这两只股票最近几天都过得很艰难。Seagen上周跌超8%，报152美元左右，因有消息称其联合创始人兼首席执行官近期大量抛售股票。在美国食品和药物管理局要求为JAK抑制剂贴上新的警告标签后，ABBVIE周三上涨7%，至112.27美元。JAK抑制剂是一种抗类风湿药物，其中包括一种<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">艾伯维</a>最有前途的后修美乐产品。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>(PFE),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>(AXP),Johnson &amp; Johnson(JNJ), andCisco Systems(CSCO) are other S&amp;P 500 members that pass a<i>Barron’s</i>screen for quality attributes.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a>（PFE），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">美国运通</a>(AXP)、强生(JNJ)和思科系统(CSCO)是其他通过A的标普500成员<i>巴伦周刊</i>筛选质量属性。</blockquote></p><p> After a year of steady gains, investors might be reminded this fall that stocks can also decline, as growth momentum and policy support begin to fade. But underlying economic strength supports buying the dip, should the market drop from its highs. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> be more selective. And go with quality.</p><p><blockquote>经过一年的稳定上涨后，今年秋天投资者可能会被提醒，随着增长势头和政策支持开始消退，股市也可能下跌。但如果市场从高点下跌，潜在的经济实力支持逢低买入。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>更有选择性。追求质量。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Strategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?<blockquote>策略师表示，今年秋天股市可能会陷入困境。现在买什么？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStrategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?<blockquote>策略师表示，今年秋天股市可能会陷入困境。现在买什么？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-07 17:32</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>What a year this has been for the markets! Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and (until recently) a mostly receding pandemic, theS&amp;P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.</p><p><blockquote>对于市场来说，这是多么美好的一年啊！在货币和财政刺激、经济和盈利增长以及（直到最近）疫情基本消退的推动下，标准普尔500股票指数已上涨20%，连续七个月上涨，并创下50多个高点。除此之外，去年市场从2020年3月的低点反弹了68%。</blockquote></p><p> Tailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnings growth are likely to decelerate through the end of the year. What’s more, theFederal Reserve has all but promised to start tapering its bond buyingin coming months, and the Biden administration has proposed hiking corporate and personal tax rates. None of this is apt to sit well with holders of increasingly pricey shares.</p><p><blockquote>顺风依然存在，但逆风现在迫在眉睫，可能会减缓股市的上涨。刺激支出已经见顶，经济和企业盈利增长可能会在今年年底放缓。此外，美联储几乎承诺在未来几个月开始缩减债券购买规模，拜登政府也提议提高企业和个人税率。这些都不会让股价越来越贵的持有者满意。</blockquote></p><p> In other words,brace for a volatile fallin which conflicting forces buffet stocks, bonds, and investors. “The everything rally is behind us,” says Saira Malik, chief investment officer of global equities at Nuveen. “It’s not going to be a sharply rising economic tide that lifts all boats from here.”</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，要做好迎接波动性下跌的准备，这种冲突迫使巴菲特股票、债券和投资者。Nuveen全球股票首席投资官Saira Malik表示：“一切反弹都已经过去。”“这不会是一场急剧上升的经济浪潮，将所有船只从这里抬起。”</blockquote></p><p> That’s the general consensus among the six market strategists and chief investment officers whom<i>Barron’s</i>recently consulted. All see the S&amp;P 500 ending the year near Thursday’s close of 4536. Their average target: 4585.</p><p><blockquote>这是六位市场策略师和首席投资官的普遍共识<i>巴伦周刊</i>最近咨询过。所有人都认为标普500将在周四收盘价4536点附近结束今年。他们的平均目标是：4585。</blockquote></p><p> Next year’s gains look muted, as well, relative to recent trends. The group expects the S&amp;P 500 to tack on another 6% in 2022, rising to about 4800.</p><p><blockquote>相对于最近的趋势，明年的涨幅看起来也很微弱。该集团预计2022年标普500将再增加6%，升至约4800。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb61c7b74b9b0f18a019afb4ac44ad59\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With stocks trading for about 21 times the coming year’s expected earnings,bonds yielding little, and cash yielding less than nothing after accounting for inflation, investors face tough asset-allocation decisions. In place of the “everything rally,” which lifted fast-growing tech stocks, no-growth meme stocks, and the Dogecoins of the digital world, our market watchers recommend focusing on “quality” investments. In equities, that means shares of businesses with solid balance sheets, expanding profit margins, and ample and recurring free cash flow. Even if the averages do little in coming months, these stocks are likely to shine.</p><p><blockquote>由于股票交易价格约为来年预期收益的21倍，债券收益率很低，考虑通货膨胀后现金收益率低于零，投资者面临着艰难的资产配置决策。我们的市场观察人士建议关注“优质”投资，而不是提振快速增长的科技股、无增长的模因股和数字世界的狗狗币的“一切反弹”。在股票方面，这意味着拥有稳健的资产负债表、不断扩大的利润率以及充足且经常性的自由现金流的企业的股票。即使未来几个月平均指数表现不大，这些股票也可能会大放异彩。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market’s massive rally in the past year was a gift of sorts from the Federal Reserve, which flooded the financial system with money to stave off theeconomic damage wrought by the Covid pandemic. Since March 2020, the U.S. central bank has been buying a combined $120 billion a month of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, while keeping its benchmark federal-funds rate target at 0% to 0.25%. These moves have depressed bond yields and pushed investors into riskier assets, including stocks.</p><p><blockquote>过去一年股市的大幅上涨是美联储的一份礼物，美联储向金融体系注入了大量资金，以避免新冠疫情造成的经济损失。自2020年3月以来，美联储每月购买总计1200亿美元的美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券，同时将基准联邦基金利率目标维持在0%至0.25%。这些举措压低了债券收益率，并推动投资者进入包括股票在内的风险较高的资产。</blockquote></p><p> Fed Chairman Jerome <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">Powell</a> has said that the central bank might begin to wind down, or taper, its emergency asset purchases sometime in the coming quarters, a move that could roil risk assets of all sorts. “For us, it’s very simple: Tapering is tightening,” says Mike Wilson, chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist atMorgan Stanley.“It’s the first step away from maximum accommodation [by the Fed]. They’re being very calculated about it this time, but the bottom line is that it should have a negative effect on equity valuations.”</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">鲍威尔</a>曾表示，央行可能会在未来几个季度的某个时候开始逐步减少或缩减紧急资产购买，此举可能会扰乱各类风险资产。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)首席投资官兼首席美国股票策略师威尔逊(Mike Wilson)表示：“对我们来说，缩减规模很简单：缩减规模就是紧缩。这是（美联储）距离最大限度宽松政策迈出的第一步。他们这次对此非常谨慎，但底线是，这应该会对股票估值产生负面影响。”</blockquote></p><p> The government’s stimulus spending, too, has peaked, the strategists note. Supplemental federal unemployment benefits of $300 a week expire as of Sept. 6. Although Congress seems likely to pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill this fall, the near-term economic impact will pale in comparison to the multiple rounds of stimulus introduced since March 2020.</p><p><blockquote>策略师指出，政府的刺激支出也已见顶。每周300美元的补充联邦失业救济金将于9月6日到期。尽管国会似乎有可能在今年秋天通过一项两党基础设施法案，但与2020年3月以来推出的多轮刺激措施相比，近期的经济影响将相形见绌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2cb76c498c1c4c980139e3d0514c261\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The bill includes about $550 billion in new spending—a fraction of the trillions authorized by previous laws—and it will be spread out over many years. The short-term boost that infrastructure stimulus will give to consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70% of U.S. growth domestic product, won’t come close to what the economy saw after millions of Americans received checks from the government this past year.</p><p><blockquote>该法案包括约5500亿美元的新支出——只是之前法律授权的数万亿美元的一小部分——并且将分散在许多年内。基础设施刺激措施将给消费者支出带来的短期提振，占美国国内生产总值增长的近70%，但不会接近去年数百万美国人收到政府支票后的经济增长。</blockquote></p><p> A budget bill approved by Democrats only should follow the infrastructure bill, and include spending to support Medicare expansion, child-care funding, free community-college tuition, public housing, and climate-related measures, among other party priorities. Congress could vote to lift taxes on corporations and high-earning individuals to offset that spending—another near-term risk to the market.</p><p><blockquote>仅由民主党批准的预算法案应该遵循基础设施法案，并包括支持医疗保险扩张、儿童保育资金、免费社区大学学费、公共住房和气候相关措施以及其他政党优先事项的支出。国会可能会投票提高企业和高收入个人的税收，以抵消这些支出——这是市场面临的另一个近期风险。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6693da658db16059fc99e08a7531675f\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Other politically charged issues likewise could derail equities this fall. Congress needs to pass a debt-ceiling increase to fund the government, and a stop-gap spending bill later this month to avoid a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">Washington</a> shutdown in October.</p><p><blockquote>今年秋天，其他带有政治色彩的问题同样可能会让股市脱轨。国会需要通过提高债务上限来为政府提供资金，并在本月晚些时候通过一项权宜之计的支出法案来避免<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">华盛顿</a>10月停工。</blockquote></p><p> For now, our market experts are relatively sanguine about the economic impact of the Delta variant of Covid-19. As long as vaccines remain effective in minimizing severe infections that lead to hospitalizations and deaths, the negative effects of the current Covid wave will be limited largely to the travel industry and movie theaters, they say. Wall Street’s base case for the market doesn’t include a renewed wave of lockdowns that would undermine economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>目前，我们的市场专家对Covid-19德尔塔变异毒株的经济影响相对乐观。他们说，只要疫苗在最大限度地减少导致住院和死亡的严重感染方面仍然有效，当前Covid浪潮的负面影响将主要限于旅游业和电影院。华尔街对市场的基本假设不包括会破坏经济增长的新一波封锁。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation has been a hot topic at the Fed and among investors, partly because it has been running so hot of late. The U.S. consumer price index rose at an annualized 5.4% in both June and July—a spike the Fed calls transitory, although others aren’t so sure. The strategists are taking Powell’s side of the argument; they expect inflation to fall significantly next year. Their forecasts fall between 2.5% and 3.5%, which they consider manageable for consumers and companies, and an acceptable side effect of rapid economic growth. An inflation rate above 2.5%, however, combined with Fed tapering, would mean that now ultralow bond yields should rise.</p><p><blockquote>通胀一直是美联储和投资者的热门话题，部分原因是通胀最近非常火爆。6月和7月，美国消费者价格指数年化涨幅为5.4%，这是美联储评级暂时性的飙升，尽管其他人不太确定。策略师们站在鲍威尔一边。他们预计明年通胀将大幅下降。他们的预测在2.5%至3.5%之间，他们认为这对消费者和公司来说是可控的，也是经济快速增长的可接受的副作用。然而，通胀率高于2.5%，加上美联储缩减规模，意味着目前超低的债券收益率应该会上升。</blockquote></p><p> “We think inflation will continue to run hotter than it has since the financial crisis, but it’s hard for us to see inflation much over 2.5% once many of the reopening-related pressures start to dissipate,” says Michael Fredericks, head of income investing for theBlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group. “So bond yields do need to move up, but that will happen gradually.”</p><p><blockquote>收益投资主管迈克尔·弗雷德里克斯(Michael Fredericks)表示：“我们认为通胀将继续比金融危机以来更高，但一旦许多与重新开放相关的压力开始消散，我们很难看到通胀率远高于2.5%。”贝莱德多资产策略集团。“因此债券收益率确实需要上升，但这将逐渐发生。”</blockquote></p><p> The strategists see the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbing to around 1.65% by year end. That’s about 35 basis points—or hundredths of a percentage point—above current levels, but below the 1.75% that the yield reached at its March 2021 highs. By next year, the 10-year Treasury could yield 2%, the group says. Those aren’t big moves in absolute terms, but they’re meaningful for&nbsp;the bond market—and could be even more so for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>策略师预计，到年底，10年期美国国债收益率将攀升至1.65%左右。这比当前水平高出约35个基点（即百分之几个百分点），但低于2021年3月收益率高点时达到的1.75%。该组织表示，到明年，10年期国债收益率可能达到2%。从绝对值来看，这些举措并不是很大，但对债券市场来说意义重大，对股票来说可能更是如此。</blockquote></p><p> Rising yields tend to weigh on stock valuations for two reasons. Higher-yielding bonds offer competition to stocks, and companies’ future earnings are worthless in the present when discounting them at a higher rate. Still, a 10-year yield around 2% won’t be enough to knock stock valuations down to pre-Covid levels. Even if yields climb, market strategists see the price/earnings multiple of the S&amp;P 500 holding well above its 30-year average of 16 times forward earnings. The index’s forward P/E topped 23 last fall.</p><p><blockquote>收益率上升往往会打压股票估值，原因有二。高收益债券提供了与股票的竞争，当以更高的利率贴现时，公司的未来收益在目前毫无价值。尽管如此，2%左右的10年期国债收益率仍不足以将股票估值降至新冠疫情爆发前的水平。即使收益率攀升，市场策略师认为标普500的市盈率仍远高于预期市盈率16倍的30年平均水平。去年秋天，该指数的远期市盈率突破23。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e08d24cb421d7cc13debd76a9c6fea01\" tg-width=\"660\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As long as 10-year Treasury yields stay in the 2% range, the S&amp;P 500 should be able to command a forward P/E in the high teens, strategists say. A return to the 16-times long-term average isn’t in the cards until there is more pressure from much higher yields—or something else that causes stocks to fall.</p><p><blockquote>策略师表示，只要10年期国债收益率保持在2%的范围内，标普500的远期市盈率就应该能够在十几岁左右。除非收益率高得多或其他导致股市下跌的因素带来更大压力，否则不可能回到16倍的长期平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> If yields surge past 2% or 2.25%, investors could start to question equity valuations more seriously, says&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">State</a> Street’schief portfolio strategist, Gaurav Mallik: “We haven’t seen [the 10-year yield] above 2% for some time now, so that’s an important sentiment level for investors.”</p><p><blockquote>表示，如果收益率飙升超过2%或2.25%，投资者可能会开始更严重地质疑股票估值<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">国家</a>Street首席投资组合策略师Gaurav Mallik：“我们已经有一段时间没有看到（10年期国债收益率）超过2%了，因此这对投资者来说是一个重要的情绪水平。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93ff6490069ab5dc1b4057f1ff7966f3\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Wilson is more concerned, noting that the stock market’s valuation risk is asymmetric: “It’s very unlikely that multiples are going to go up, and there’s a good chance that they go down more than 10% given the deceleration in growth and where we are in the cycle,” he says</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊更担心，他指出，股市的估值风险是不对称的：“市盈率不太可能上升，考虑到增长放缓和我们所处的位置，市盈率很有可能下降10%以上。在周期中，”他说</blockquote></p><p> If 16 to 23 times forward earnings is the range, he adds, “you’re already at the very high end of that. There’s more potential risk than reward.”</p><p><blockquote>他补充道，如果预期市盈率为16至23倍，“你已经处于这个范围的很高端。潜在风险大于回报。”</blockquote></p><p> Some P/E-multiple compression is baked into all six strategists’ forecasts, heaping greater importance on the path of profit growth. On average, the strategists expect S&amp;P 500 earnings to jump 46% this year, to about $204, after last year’s earnings depression. That could be followed by a more normalized gain of 9% in 2022, to about $222.50.</p><p><blockquote>所有六位策略师的预测都包含了一些市盈率倍数的压缩，这对利润增长路径变得更加重要。平均而言，策略师预计，继去年的盈利低迷之后，标普500今年的盈利将增长46%，至204美元左右。随后，2022年可能会上涨9%，达到约222.50美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> A potential headwind would be a higher federal corporate-tax rate in 2022. The details of Democrats’ spending and taxation plans will be worked out in the coming weeks, and investors can expect to hear a lot more about potential tax increases. Several strategists see a 25% federal rate on corporate profits as a likely compromise figure, above the 21% in place since 2018, but below the 28% sought by the Biden administration.</p><p><blockquote>一个潜在的阻力是2022年联邦企业税率上升。民主党支出和税收计划的细节将在未来几周内制定出来，投资者可以期待听到更多有关潜在增税的消息。几位策略师认为，25%的联邦企业利润税率可能是一个妥协数字，高于2018年以来实施的21%，但低于拜登政府寻求的28%。</blockquote></p><p> An increase of that magnitude would shave about 5% off S&amp;P 500 earnings next year. The index could drop by a similar amount as the passage of the Democrats’ reconciliation bill nears this fall, but the impact should be limited to that initial correction. As with the tax cuts in December 2017, the change should be a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-time event for the market, some strategists predict.</p><p><blockquote>如此幅度的增长将使标普500明年的盈利减少约5%。随着今年秋天民主党和解法案的通过，该指数可能会下跌类似的幅度，但影响应该仅限于最初的调整。与2017年12月的减税一样，这一变化应该是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>——一些策略师预测，市场的时间事件。</blockquote></p><p> These concerns aside, investors shouldn’t miss the bigger picture: The U.S. economy is in good shape and growing robustly. The strategists expect gross domestic product to rise 6.3% this year and about 4% in 2022. “The cyclical uplift and above-trend growth will continue at least through 2022, and we want to be biased toward assets that have that exposure,” says Mallik.</p><p><blockquote>抛开这些担忧不谈，投资者不应错过更大的图景：美国经济状况良好，增长强劲。策略师预计今年国内生产总值将增长6.3%，2022年将增长约4%。Mallik表示：“周期性上涨和高于趋势的增长将至少持续到2022年，我们希望偏向于具有这种风险的资产。”</blockquote></p><p>   “We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next. When GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”— Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets  The State Street strategist recommends overweighting materials, financials, and technology in investment portfolios. That approach includes both economically sensitive companies, such as banks and miners, and steady growers in the tech sector.</p><p><blockquote>“今明两年我们的经济将会火爆。当GDP增长高于平均水平时，价值会超过增长，周期性会超过防御性。”—Lori Calvasina，加拿大皇家银行资本市场道富策略师建议在投资组合中增持材料、金融和科技股。这种方法既包括银行和矿业公司等对经济敏感的公司，也包括科技行业的稳定增长者。</blockquote></p><p> RBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, likewise takes a barbell approach, with both cyclical and growth exposure. Her preferred sectors are energy, financials, and technology.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)美国股票策略主管洛里·卡尔瓦西纳(Lori Calvasina)同样采取杠铃法，同时投资周期性和成长性。她最喜欢的行业是能源、金融和技术。</blockquote></p><p> “Valuations are still a lot more attractive in financials and energy than growth [sectors such as technology or consumer discretionary,]” Calvasina says. “The catalyst in the near term is getting out of the current Covid wave... We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next, and traditionally when GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳表示：“金融和能源行业的估值仍然比增长行业（科技或非必需消费品等行业）更具吸引力。”“近期的催化剂是摆脱当前的新冠疫情浪潮……今年和明年我们将迎来经济火爆，传统上，当GDP增长高于平均水平时，价值会跑赢增长，周期性会跑赢防御性。”</blockquote></p><p> But the focus on quality will be pivotal, especially moving into the second half of 2022. That’s when the Fed is likely to hike interest rates for the first time in this cycle. By 2023, the economy could return to pre-Covid growth on the order of 2%.</p><p><blockquote>但对质量的关注将是关键，尤其是进入2022年下半年。届时美联储可能会在本周期内首次加息。到2023年，经济可能会恢复到新冠疫情前2%左右的增长。</blockquote></p><p> “The historical playbook is that coming out of a recession, you tend to see low-quality outperformance that lasts about a year, then leadership flips back to high quality,” Calvasina says. “But that transition from low quality back to high quality tends to be very bumpy.”</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳表示：“历史上的剧本是，走出衰退后，你往往会看到持续一年左右的低质量优异表现，然后领导力又会恢复到高质量。”“但从低质量回到高质量的转变往往非常坎坷。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Shopping List for Fall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>秋季购物清单</b></blockquote></p><p> Most strategists favor a combination of economically sensitive stocks and steady growers, including tech shares. Financials should do well, particularly if bond yields rise.</p><p><blockquote>大多数策略师青睐对经济敏感的股票和稳定增长的股票（包括科技股）的组合。金融股应该会表现良好，特别是如果债券收益率上升的话。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a54c4bd114c1a5f7f700d1fc14d30d8e\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Although stocks with quality attributes have outperformed the market this summer, according to a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a> analysis, the quality factor has lagged since positive vaccine news was first reported last November.</p><p><blockquote>尽管今年夏天具有质量属性的股票表现优于大盘，但根据一家<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">贝莱德</a>分析，自去年11月首次报道疫苗正面消息以来，质量因素一直滞后。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re moving into a mid-cycle environment, when underlying economic growth remains strong but momentum begins to decelerate,” BlackRock’s Fredericks says. “Our research shows that quality stocks perform particularly well in such a period.”</p><p><blockquote>贝莱德的弗雷德里克斯表示：“我们正在进入周期中期环境，基本经济增长仍然强劲，但势头开始减速。”“我们的研究表明，优质股票在这样的时期表现尤其出色。”</blockquote></p><p> He recommends overweighting profitable technology companies; financials, including banks, and consumer staples and industrials with those quality characteristics.</p><p><blockquote>他建议增持盈利的科技公司；金融，包括银行，以及具有这些质量特征的消费品和工业。</blockquote></p><p> For <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>’s head of equity strategy, Christopher Harvey, a mix of post-pandemic beneficiaries and defensive exposure is the way to go. He constructed a basket of stocks with lower-than-average volatility—which should outperform during periods of market uncertainty or stress this fall—and high “Covid beta,” or sensitivity to good or bad news about the pandemic. One requirement; The stocks had to be rated the equivalent of Buy by Wells Fargo’s equity analysts.</p><p><blockquote>为了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>股票策略主管克里斯托弗·哈维(Christopher Harvey)表示，大流行后受益者和防御性敞口的结合才是正确的选择。他构建了一篮子波动性低于平均水平的股票——在今年秋季市场不确定性或压力时期，这些股票应该会跑赢大盘——并且“新冠贝塔值”较高，即对有关大流行的好消息或坏消息的敏感性。一个要求；富国银行的股票分析师必须将这些股票评级为“买入”。</blockquote></p><p> “There’s near-term economic uncertainty, interest-rate uncertainty, and Covid risk, and generally we’re in a seasonally weaker part of the year around September,” says Harvey. “If we can balance low vol and high Covid beta, we can mitigate a lot of the upcoming uncertainty and volatility around timing of several of those catalysts. Longer-term, though, we still want to have that [reopening exposure.]”</p><p><blockquote>哈维表示：“近期经济存在不确定性、利率不确定性和新冠病毒风险，一般来说，我们正处于9月份左右的季节性疲软时期。”“如果我们能够平衡低波动性和高Covid贝塔值，我们就可以减轻其中几种催化剂时机即将到来的不确定性和波动性。不过，从长远来看，我们仍然希望[重新开放风险。]”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Harvey’s list of low-volatility stocks with high Covid beta includesApple(AAPL),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>(BAC),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">Northern</a> Trust(NTRS),Lowe’s(LOW),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a> Holdings(IQV), andMasco(MAS).</p><p><blockquote>哈维列出的具有高新贝塔值的低波动性股票名单包括苹果(AAPL)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>（BAC），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">北方的</a>信托(NTRS)、劳氏(LOW)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a>控股公司（IQV）和马斯科公司（MAS）。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, banks are the most frequently recommended group for the months ahead. TheInvesco KBW Bankexchange-traded fund (KBWB) provides broad exposure to the sector in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，银行是未来几个月最常被推荐的群体。Invesco KBW银行交易所交易基金(KBWB)提供对美国该行业的广泛投资。</blockquote></p><p> “We like the valuations [and] credit quality; they are now allowed to buy back shares and increase dividends, and there’s higher Covid beta,” says Harvey.</p><p><blockquote>“我们喜欢估值和信用质量；他们现在被允许回购股票并增加股息，而且新冠贝塔值更高，”哈维说。</blockquote></p><p> Cheaper valuations mean less potential downside in a market correction. And, contrary to much of the rest of the stock market, higher interest rates would be a tailwind for the banks, which could then charge more for loans.</p><p><blockquote>较低的估值意味着市场调整中潜在的下行空间较小。而且，与股市的其他大部分地区相反，更高的利率将成为银行的顺风车，银行可能会收取更高的贷款费用。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">Healthcare</a> stocks also have some fans. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">Healthcare</a> has both defensive and growth attributes to it,” Wilson says. “You’re paying a lot less per unit of growth in healthcare today than you are in other sectors. So we think it provides good balance in this market when we’re worried about valuation.” Health insurerHumana(HUM) makes Wilson’s “Fresh Money Buy List” of stocks Buy-rated by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a> analysts and fitting his macro views.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">医疗保健</a>股票也有一些粉丝。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">医疗保健</a>具有防御性和成长性，”威尔逊说。“如今，医疗保健行业每单位增长支付的费用比其他行业低得多。因此，我们认为，当我们担心估值时，它为这个市场提供了良好的平衡。”健康保险公司Humana(HUM)跻身威尔逊“新鲜资金买入名单”股票买入评级<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师并符合他的宏观观点。</blockquote></p><p> Nuveen’s Malik is also looking toward health care for relatively underpriced growth exposure, namely in the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology groups. She points toSeagen(SGEN), which is focused on oncology drugs and could be an attractive acquisition target for a pharma giant.</p><p><blockquote>Nuveen的Malik还将目光投向医疗保健领域，以获得相对低估的增长机会，即制药和生物技术领域。她指出了Seagen(SGEN)，该公司专注于肿瘤药物，可能成为制药巨头有吸引力的收购目标。</blockquote></p><p> Malik also likesAbbVie(ABBV) which trades at an undemanding eight times forward earnings and sports a 4.7% dividend yield. The coming expiration of patents on its blockbuster anti-inflammatory drug Humira has kept some investors away, but Malik is confident that management can limit the damage and sees promising drugs in development at the $200 billion company.</p><p><blockquote>马利克还喜欢艾伯维(ABBV)，该公司的预期市盈率为8倍，股息收益率为4.7%。其重磅抗炎药修美乐(Humira)的专利即将到期，这让一些投资者望而却步，但马利克相信管理层能够限制损失，并看到这家价值2000亿美元的公司正在开发有前途的药物。</blockquote></p><p> Both stocks have had a tough time in recent days. Seagen fell more than 8% last week, to around $152, on news that its co-founder and CEO sold a large number of shares recently. AndAbbVietanked 7% Wednesday, to $112.27, after the Food and Drug Administration required new warning labels for JAK inhibitors, a type of anti-rheumatoid drug that includes one of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">AbbVie</a>’s most promising post-Humira products.</p><p><blockquote>这两只股票最近几天都过得很艰难。Seagen上周跌超8%，报152美元左右，因有消息称其联合创始人兼首席执行官近期大量抛售股票。在美国食品和药物管理局要求为JAK抑制剂贴上新的警告标签后，ABBVIE周三上涨7%，至112.27美元。JAK抑制剂是一种抗类风湿药物，其中包括一种<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">艾伯维</a>最有前途的后修美乐产品。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>(PFE),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>(AXP),Johnson &amp; Johnson(JNJ), andCisco Systems(CSCO) are other S&amp;P 500 members that pass a<i>Barron’s</i>screen for quality attributes.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a>（PFE），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">美国运通</a>(AXP)、强生(JNJ)和思科系统(CSCO)是其他通过A的标普500成员<i>巴伦周刊</i>筛选质量属性。</blockquote></p><p> After a year of steady gains, investors might be reminded this fall that stocks can also decline, as growth momentum and policy support begin to fade. But underlying economic strength supports buying the dip, should the market drop from its highs. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> be more selective. And go with quality.</p><p><blockquote>经过一年的稳定上涨后，今年秋天投资者可能会被提醒，随着增长势头和政策支持开始消退，股市也可能下跌。但如果市场从高点下跌，潜在的经济实力支持逢低买入。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>更有选择性。追求质量。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-could-struggle-this-fall-market-strategists-say-stick-with-quality-companies-51630699840?siteid=yhoof2\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-could-struggle-this-fall-market-strategists-say-stick-with-quality-companies-51630699840?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130130857","content_text":"What a year this has been for the markets! Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and (until recently) a mostly receding pandemic, theS&P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.\nTailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnings growth are likely to decelerate through the end of the year. What’s more, theFederal Reserve has all but promised to start tapering its bond buyingin coming months, and the Biden administration has proposed hiking corporate and personal tax rates. None of this is apt to sit well with holders of increasingly pricey shares.\nIn other words,brace for a volatile fallin which conflicting forces buffet stocks, bonds, and investors. “The everything rally is behind us,” says Saira Malik, chief investment officer of global equities at Nuveen. “It’s not going to be a sharply rising economic tide that lifts all boats from here.”\nThat’s the general consensus among the six market strategists and chief investment officers whomBarron’srecently consulted. All see the S&P 500 ending the year near Thursday’s close of 4536. Their average target: 4585.\nNext year’s gains look muted, as well, relative to recent trends. The group expects the S&P 500 to tack on another 6% in 2022, rising to about 4800.\nWith stocks trading for about 21 times the coming year’s expected earnings,bonds yielding little, and cash yielding less than nothing after accounting for inflation, investors face tough asset-allocation decisions. In place of the “everything rally,” which lifted fast-growing tech stocks, no-growth meme stocks, and the Dogecoins of the digital world, our market watchers recommend focusing on “quality” investments. In equities, that means shares of businesses with solid balance sheets, expanding profit margins, and ample and recurring free cash flow. Even if the averages do little in coming months, these stocks are likely to shine.\nThe stock market’s massive rally in the past year was a gift of sorts from the Federal Reserve, which flooded the financial system with money to stave off theeconomic damage wrought by the Covid pandemic. Since March 2020, the U.S. central bank has been buying a combined $120 billion a month of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, while keeping its benchmark federal-funds rate target at 0% to 0.25%. These moves have depressed bond yields and pushed investors into riskier assets, including stocks.\nFed Chairman Jerome Powell has said that the central bank might begin to wind down, or taper, its emergency asset purchases sometime in the coming quarters, a move that could roil risk assets of all sorts. “For us, it’s very simple: Tapering is tightening,” says Mike Wilson, chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist atMorgan Stanley.“It’s the first step away from maximum accommodation [by the Fed]. They’re being very calculated about it this time, but the bottom line is that it should have a negative effect on equity valuations.”\nThe government’s stimulus spending, too, has peaked, the strategists note. Supplemental federal unemployment benefits of $300 a week expire as of Sept. 6. Although Congress seems likely to pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill this fall, the near-term economic impact will pale in comparison to the multiple rounds of stimulus introduced since March 2020.\nThe bill includes about $550 billion in new spending—a fraction of the trillions authorized by previous laws—and it will be spread out over many years. The short-term boost that infrastructure stimulus will give to consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70% of U.S. growth domestic product, won’t come close to what the economy saw after millions of Americans received checks from the government this past year.\nA budget bill approved by Democrats only should follow the infrastructure bill, and include spending to support Medicare expansion, child-care funding, free community-college tuition, public housing, and climate-related measures, among other party priorities. Congress could vote to lift taxes on corporations and high-earning individuals to offset that spending—another near-term risk to the market.\nOther politically charged issues likewise could derail equities this fall. Congress needs to pass a debt-ceiling increase to fund the government, and a stop-gap spending bill later this month to avoid a Washington shutdown in October.\nFor now, our market experts are relatively sanguine about the economic impact of the Delta variant of Covid-19. As long as vaccines remain effective in minimizing severe infections that lead to hospitalizations and deaths, the negative effects of the current Covid wave will be limited largely to the travel industry and movie theaters, they say. Wall Street’s base case for the market doesn’t include a renewed wave of lockdowns that would undermine economic growth.\nInflation has been a hot topic at the Fed and among investors, partly because it has been running so hot of late. The U.S. consumer price index rose at an annualized 5.4% in both June and July—a spike the Fed calls transitory, although others aren’t so sure. The strategists are taking Powell’s side of the argument; they expect inflation to fall significantly next year. Their forecasts fall between 2.5% and 3.5%, which they consider manageable for consumers and companies, and an acceptable side effect of rapid economic growth. An inflation rate above 2.5%, however, combined with Fed tapering, would mean that now ultralow bond yields should rise.\n“We think inflation will continue to run hotter than it has since the financial crisis, but it’s hard for us to see inflation much over 2.5% once many of the reopening-related pressures start to dissipate,” says Michael Fredericks, head of income investing for theBlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group. “So bond yields do need to move up, but that will happen gradually.”\nThe strategists see the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbing to around 1.65% by year end. That’s about 35 basis points—or hundredths of a percentage point—above current levels, but below the 1.75% that the yield reached at its March 2021 highs. By next year, the 10-year Treasury could yield 2%, the group says. Those aren’t big moves in absolute terms, but they’re meaningful for the bond market—and could be even more so for stocks.\nRising yields tend to weigh on stock valuations for two reasons. Higher-yielding bonds offer competition to stocks, and companies’ future earnings are worthless in the present when discounting them at a higher rate. Still, a 10-year yield around 2% won’t be enough to knock stock valuations down to pre-Covid levels. Even if yields climb, market strategists see the price/earnings multiple of the S&P 500 holding well above its 30-year average of 16 times forward earnings. The index’s forward P/E topped 23 last fall.\n\nAs long as 10-year Treasury yields stay in the 2% range, the S&P 500 should be able to command a forward P/E in the high teens, strategists say. A return to the 16-times long-term average isn’t in the cards until there is more pressure from much higher yields—or something else that causes stocks to fall.\nIf yields surge past 2% or 2.25%, investors could start to question equity valuations more seriously, says State Street’schief portfolio strategist, Gaurav Mallik: “We haven’t seen [the 10-year yield] above 2% for some time now, so that’s an important sentiment level for investors.”\n\nWilson is more concerned, noting that the stock market’s valuation risk is asymmetric: “It’s very unlikely that multiples are going to go up, and there’s a good chance that they go down more than 10% given the deceleration in growth and where we are in the cycle,” he says\nIf 16 to 23 times forward earnings is the range, he adds, “you’re already at the very high end of that. There’s more potential risk than reward.”\nSome P/E-multiple compression is baked into all six strategists’ forecasts, heaping greater importance on the path of profit growth. On average, the strategists expect S&P 500 earnings to jump 46% this year, to about $204, after last year’s earnings depression. That could be followed by a more normalized gain of 9% in 2022, to about $222.50.\nA potential headwind would be a higher federal corporate-tax rate in 2022. The details of Democrats’ spending and taxation plans will be worked out in the coming weeks, and investors can expect to hear a lot more about potential tax increases. Several strategists see a 25% federal rate on corporate profits as a likely compromise figure, above the 21% in place since 2018, but below the 28% sought by the Biden administration.\nAn increase of that magnitude would shave about 5% off S&P 500 earnings next year. The index could drop by a similar amount as the passage of the Democrats’ reconciliation bill nears this fall, but the impact should be limited to that initial correction. As with the tax cuts in December 2017, the change should be a one-time event for the market, some strategists predict.\nThese concerns aside, investors shouldn’t miss the bigger picture: The U.S. economy is in good shape and growing robustly. The strategists expect gross domestic product to rise 6.3% this year and about 4% in 2022. “The cyclical uplift and above-trend growth will continue at least through 2022, and we want to be biased toward assets that have that exposure,” says Mallik.\n\n “We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next. When GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”— Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets\n\nThe State Street strategist recommends overweighting materials, financials, and technology in investment portfolios. That approach includes both economically sensitive companies, such as banks and miners, and steady growers in the tech sector.\nRBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, likewise takes a barbell approach, with both cyclical and growth exposure. Her preferred sectors are energy, financials, and technology.\n“Valuations are still a lot more attractive in financials and energy than growth [sectors such as technology or consumer discretionary,]” Calvasina says. “The catalyst in the near term is getting out of the current Covid wave... We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next, and traditionally when GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”\nBut the focus on quality will be pivotal, especially moving into the second half of 2022. That’s when the Fed is likely to hike interest rates for the first time in this cycle. By 2023, the economy could return to pre-Covid growth on the order of 2%.\n“The historical playbook is that coming out of a recession, you tend to see low-quality outperformance that lasts about a year, then leadership flips back to high quality,” Calvasina says. “But that transition from low quality back to high quality tends to be very bumpy.”\nA Shopping List for Fall\nMost strategists favor a combination of economically sensitive stocks and steady growers, including tech shares. Financials should do well, particularly if bond yields rise.\n\nAlthough stocks with quality attributes have outperformed the market this summer, according to a BlackRock analysis, the quality factor has lagged since positive vaccine news was first reported last November.\n“We’re moving into a mid-cycle environment, when underlying economic growth remains strong but momentum begins to decelerate,” BlackRock’s Fredericks says. “Our research shows that quality stocks perform particularly well in such a period.”\nHe recommends overweighting profitable technology companies; financials, including banks, and consumer staples and industrials with those quality characteristics.\nFor Wells Fargo’s head of equity strategy, Christopher Harvey, a mix of post-pandemic beneficiaries and defensive exposure is the way to go. He constructed a basket of stocks with lower-than-average volatility—which should outperform during periods of market uncertainty or stress this fall—and high “Covid beta,” or sensitivity to good or bad news about the pandemic. One requirement; The stocks had to be rated the equivalent of Buy by Wells Fargo’s equity analysts.\n“There’s near-term economic uncertainty, interest-rate uncertainty, and Covid risk, and generally we’re in a seasonally weaker part of the year around September,” says Harvey. “If we can balance low vol and high Covid beta, we can mitigate a lot of the upcoming uncertainty and volatility around timing of several of those catalysts. Longer-term, though, we still want to have that [reopening exposure.]”\nHarvey’s list of low-volatility stocks with high Covid beta includesApple(AAPL),Bank of America(BAC),Northern Trust(NTRS),Lowe’s(LOW),IQVIA Holdings(IQV), andMasco(MAS).\nOverall, banks are the most frequently recommended group for the months ahead. TheInvesco KBW Bankexchange-traded fund (KBWB) provides broad exposure to the sector in the U.S.\n“We like the valuations [and] credit quality; they are now allowed to buy back shares and increase dividends, and there’s higher Covid beta,” says Harvey.\nCheaper valuations mean less potential downside in a market correction. And, contrary to much of the rest of the stock market, higher interest rates would be a tailwind for the banks, which could then charge more for loans.\nHealthcare stocks also have some fans. “Healthcare has both defensive and growth attributes to it,” Wilson says. “You’re paying a lot less per unit of growth in healthcare today than you are in other sectors. So we think it provides good balance in this market when we’re worried about valuation.” Health insurerHumana(HUM) makes Wilson’s “Fresh Money Buy List” of stocks Buy-rated by Morgan Stanley analysts and fitting his macro views.\nNuveen’s Malik is also looking toward health care for relatively underpriced growth exposure, namely in the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology groups. She points toSeagen(SGEN), which is focused on oncology drugs and could be an attractive acquisition target for a pharma giant.\nMalik also likesAbbVie(ABBV) which trades at an undemanding eight times forward earnings and sports a 4.7% dividend yield. The coming expiration of patents on its blockbuster anti-inflammatory drug Humira has kept some investors away, but Malik is confident that management can limit the damage and sees promising drugs in development at the $200 billion company.\nBoth stocks have had a tough time in recent days. Seagen fell more than 8% last week, to around $152, on news that its co-founder and CEO sold a large number of shares recently. AndAbbVietanked 7% Wednesday, to $112.27, after the Food and Drug Administration required new warning labels for JAK inhibitors, a type of anti-rheumatoid drug that includes one of AbbVie’s most promising post-Humira products.\nPfizer(PFE),American Express(AXP),Johnson & Johnson(JNJ), andCisco Systems(CSCO) are other S&P 500 members that pass aBarron’sscreen for quality attributes.\nAfter a year of steady gains, investors might be reminded this fall that stocks can also decline, as growth momentum and policy support begin to fade. But underlying economic strength supports buying the dip, should the market drop from its highs. Just be more selective. And go with quality.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":373,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}