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0勋章

2021-04-12

like and comment thank you!!

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2021-06-09

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Why Micron Technology Stock Fell on Tuesday<blockquote>为什么美光科技股价周二下跌</blockquote>

2021-03-28

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Tesla Deliveries Are Coming. They Matter More Than Ever. Here’s What to Expect.<blockquote>特斯拉交付即将到来。它们比以往任何时候都重要。这是可以期待的。</blockquote>

2021-03-27

like and comment pls! TESLA!!!

Tesla Deliveries Are Coming. They Matter More Than Ever. Here’s What to Expect.<blockquote>特斯拉交付即将到来。它们比以往任何时候都重要。这是可以期待的。</blockquote>

2021-03-24

crazy

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2021-07-29

like please

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2021-06-11

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2021-06-04

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Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider<blockquote>10年后苹果股票会在哪里？要考虑什么</blockquote>

2021-05-29

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2021-04-14

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(CSE: AAWH) (OTCQX: AAWH) revealed a 236.2% year-over-year and 28.5% sequential pop in gross revenue on Tuesday, which totaled $97.5 million in the second quarter of fiscal 2021, beating estimates by $4.5 million&lt;/","content":"<p>Vertically integrated cannabis company<b> Ascend Wellness Holdings, Inc.</b> (CSE:AAWH) (OTCQX:AAWH) revealed a <b>236.2% year-over-year and 28.5% sequential pop in gross revenue</b> on Tuesday, which totaled <b>$97.5 million in the second quarter of fiscal 2021, beating estimates by $4.5 million</b>.</p><p><blockquote>垂直整合的大麻公司<b>奥升德健康控股公司。</b>(CSE：AAWH)(OTCQX：AAWH)透露<b>总收入同比增长236.2%，环比增长28.5%</b>周二，总计<b>2021财年第二季度为9750万美元，超出预期450万美元</b>.</blockquote></p><p> According to its latest earnings report,<b> net revenue improved 26.1% sequentially to $83.4 million</b>. For the <b>six months ended June 30, net revenue was $149.5 million</b>, a 4% increase from the same quarter of 2020. <b>GAAP earnings per share were negative $0.30</b>.</p><p><blockquote>据其最新财报显示，<b>净收入环比增长26.1%至8,340万美元</b>.为了<b>截至6月30日的六个月，净收入为1.495亿美元</b>，较2020年同季度增长4%。<b>GAAP每股收益为负0.30美元</b>.</blockquote></p><p> \"Our business continues to produce impressive quarter-over-quarter revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth as we scale our wholesale and retail operations across the high-quality markets where we operate,\"<b> Abner Kurtin, founder and CEO</b> of the New York-based company, said.</p><p><blockquote>“随着我们在优质市场扩大批发和零售业务，我们的业务继续产生令人印象深刻的季度收入和调整后EBITDA增长。”<b>Abner Kurtin，创始人兼首席执行官</b>这家总部位于纽约的公司说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Here's a breakdown of what the second-quarter earnings report showed:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>以下是第二季度收益报告显示的明细：</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Gross profit amounted to $34.5 million</b>, accounting for 41.4% of revenue, versus $29.7 million, or 44.9% of revenue in the prior period.</li>  <li><b>Adjusted gross profit</b>, a non-GAAP financial measure, was <b>$39.6 million</b>, or 47.5% of revenue.</li>  <li>Adjusted Gross Profit margin,&nbsp; a non-GAAP financial measure, declined 174 basis points quarter-over-quarter to 47.5%.</li>  <li><b>Total general and administrative expenses totaled $30.6 million</b>, or 36.7% of revenue, compared to $25.1 million in the first quarter of 2021. <b>The total for other expenses was $36.8 million</b>.</li>  <li><b>Net loss amounted to $44.9 million</b>, or a loss of $0.30 per basic and diluted common share.</li>  <li><b>Adjusted EBITDA</b>, a non-GAAP financial measure, <b>came in positive at $20.3 million</b>, representing a 28.3% increase quarter-over-quarter.</li>  <li>As of June 30, AWH had <b>$104.2 million in cash and cash equivalents</b> and <b>total debt of $131.6 million</b>.</li> </ul> <h3>Operational Milestones And 2021 Revenue Guidance</h3> Over the quarter, the company kicked off cannabis sales in <b>three new stores</b>&nbsp;in Boston, Massachusetts, Rochelle Park, New Jersey&nbsp;and Chicago Ridge, Illinois, bringing its <b>retail footprint to 18 shops nationwide</b>.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>毛利润达3450万美元</b>，占营收的41.4%，而上一期为2970万美元，占营收的44.9%。</li><li><b>调整后毛利</b>一项非公认会计准则财务指标<b>3960万美元</b>，或收入的47.5%。</li><li>非公认会计准则财务指标调整后毛利率环比下降174个基点至47.5%。</li><li><b>一般和行政费用共计3060万美元</b>，占收入的36.7%，而2021年第一季度为2510万美元。<b>其他费用共计3680万美元</b>.</li><li><b>净亏损达4490万美元</b>，或每股基本和稀释普通股亏损0.30美元。</li><li><b>调整后EBITDA</b>，一项非公认会计准则财务指标，<b>收入为2,030万美元</b>，环比增长28.3%。</li><li>截至6月30日，AWH已<b>现金及现金等价物1.042亿美元</b>和<b>债务总额为1.316亿美元</b>.</li></ul><h3>运营里程碑和2021年收入指引</h3>本季度，该公司开始销售大麻<b>三家新店</b>马萨诸塞州波士顿、新泽西州罗谢尔公园和伊利诺伊州芝加哥岭<b>零售足迹遍布全国18家商店</b>.</blockquote></p><p> In addition, the company's management increased the<b> 2021 full-year annual revenue guidance from a range of $320 million to $340 million to a range of $330 million to $350 million</b>.</p><p><blockquote>此外，公司管理层增<b>2021年全年年收入指引为3.2亿美元至3.4亿美元至3.3亿美元至3.5亿美元</b>.</blockquote></p><p> \"We remain focused on executing, disciplined in our approach to allocating capital, and excited about the trajectory of the company,\" Kurtin added.</p><p><blockquote>“我们仍然专注于执行，严格遵守资本配置方法，并对公司的发展轨迹感到兴奋，”库尔廷补充道。</blockquote></p><p> In July, AWH announced its <b>debut on the OTCQX Best Market</b>.</p><p><blockquote>7月，AWH宣布其<b>首次亮相OTCQX最佳市场</b>.</blockquote></p><p> <h3>Price Action</h3> AWH's shares were <b>trading 0.07% lower at $11.0 per share </b>at market close Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote><h3>价格行为</h3>AWH的股票为<b>交易价格下跌0.07%，至每股11.0美元</b>周二收盘时。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Photo: Courtesy of Jeff W on Unsplash</i></p><p><blockquote><i>照片：由Unsplash上的Jeff W提供</i></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAscend Wellness Holdings Beats on Q2 2021 Revenue, Increases Full-Year Net Revenue Guidance To $330-$350M<blockquote>Ascend Wellness Holdings 2021年第二季度收入超出预期，将全年净收入指引提高至3.30-3.5亿美元</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-11 21:47</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Vertically integrated cannabis company<b> Ascend Wellness Holdings, Inc.</b> (CSE:AAWH) (OTCQX:AAWH) revealed a <b>236.2% year-over-year and 28.5% sequential pop in gross revenue</b> on Tuesday, which totaled <b>$97.5 million in the second quarter of fiscal 2021, beating estimates by $4.5 million</b>.</p><p><blockquote>垂直整合的大麻公司<b>奥升德健康控股公司。</b>(CSE：AAWH)(OTCQX：AAWH)透露<b>总收入同比增长236.2%，环比增长28.5%</b>周二，总计<b>2021财年第二季度为9750万美元，超出预期450万美元</b>.</blockquote></p><p> According to its latest earnings report,<b> net revenue improved 26.1% sequentially to $83.4 million</b>. For the <b>six months ended June 30, net revenue was $149.5 million</b>, a 4% increase from the same quarter of 2020. <b>GAAP earnings per share were negative $0.30</b>.</p><p><blockquote>据其最新财报显示，<b>净收入环比增长26.1%至8,340万美元</b>.为了<b>截至6月30日的六个月，净收入为1.495亿美元</b>，较2020年同季度增长4%。<b>GAAP每股收益为负0.30美元</b>.</blockquote></p><p> \"Our business continues to produce impressive quarter-over-quarter revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth as we scale our wholesale and retail operations across the high-quality markets where we operate,\"<b> Abner Kurtin, founder and CEO</b> of the New York-based company, said.</p><p><blockquote>“随着我们在优质市场扩大批发和零售业务，我们的业务继续产生令人印象深刻的季度收入和调整后EBITDA增长。”<b>Abner Kurtin，创始人兼首席执行官</b>这家总部位于纽约的公司说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Here's a breakdown of what the second-quarter earnings report showed:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>以下是第二季度收益报告显示的明细：</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Gross profit amounted to $34.5 million</b>, accounting for 41.4% of revenue, versus $29.7 million, or 44.9% of revenue in the prior period.</li>  <li><b>Adjusted gross profit</b>, a non-GAAP financial measure, was <b>$39.6 million</b>, or 47.5% of revenue.</li>  <li>Adjusted Gross Profit margin,&nbsp; a non-GAAP financial measure, declined 174 basis points quarter-over-quarter to 47.5%.</li>  <li><b>Total general and administrative expenses totaled $30.6 million</b>, or 36.7% of revenue, compared to $25.1 million in the first quarter of 2021. <b>The total for other expenses was $36.8 million</b>.</li>  <li><b>Net loss amounted to $44.9 million</b>, or a loss of $0.30 per basic and diluted common share.</li>  <li><b>Adjusted EBITDA</b>, a non-GAAP financial measure, <b>came in positive at $20.3 million</b>, representing a 28.3% increase quarter-over-quarter.</li>  <li>As of June 30, AWH had <b>$104.2 million in cash and cash equivalents</b> and <b>total debt of $131.6 million</b>.</li> </ul> <h3>Operational Milestones And 2021 Revenue Guidance</h3> Over the quarter, the company kicked off cannabis sales in <b>three new stores</b>&nbsp;in Boston, Massachusetts, Rochelle Park, New Jersey&nbsp;and Chicago Ridge, Illinois, bringing its <b>retail footprint to 18 shops nationwide</b>.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>毛利润达3450万美元</b>，占营收的41.4%，而上一期为2970万美元，占营收的44.9%。</li><li><b>调整后毛利</b>一项非公认会计准则财务指标<b>3960万美元</b>，或收入的47.5%。</li><li>非公认会计准则财务指标调整后毛利率环比下降174个基点至47.5%。</li><li><b>一般和行政费用共计3060万美元</b>，占收入的36.7%，而2021年第一季度为2510万美元。<b>其他费用共计3680万美元</b>.</li><li><b>净亏损达4490万美元</b>，或每股基本和稀释普通股亏损0.30美元。</li><li><b>调整后EBITDA</b>，一项非公认会计准则财务指标，<b>收入为2,030万美元</b>，环比增长28.3%。</li><li>截至6月30日，AWH已<b>现金及现金等价物1.042亿美元</b>和<b>债务总额为1.316亿美元</b>.</li></ul><h3>运营里程碑和2021年收入指引</h3>本季度，该公司开始销售大麻<b>三家新店</b>马萨诸塞州波士顿、新泽西州罗谢尔公园和伊利诺伊州芝加哥岭<b>零售足迹遍布全国18家商店</b>.</blockquote></p><p> In addition, the company's management increased the<b> 2021 full-year annual revenue guidance from a range of $320 million to $340 million to a range of $330 million to $350 million</b>.</p><p><blockquote>此外，公司管理层增<b>2021年全年年收入指引为3.2亿美元至3.4亿美元至3.3亿美元至3.5亿美元</b>.</blockquote></p><p> \"We remain focused on executing, disciplined in our approach to allocating capital, and excited about the trajectory of the company,\" Kurtin added.</p><p><blockquote>“我们仍然专注于执行，严格遵守资本配置方法，并对公司的发展轨迹感到兴奋，”库尔廷补充道。</blockquote></p><p> In July, AWH announced its <b>debut on the OTCQX Best Market</b>.</p><p><blockquote>7月，AWH宣布其<b>首次亮相OTCQX最佳市场</b>.</blockquote></p><p> <h3>Price Action</h3> AWH's shares were <b>trading 0.07% lower at $11.0 per share </b>at market close Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote><h3>价格行为</h3>AWH的股票为<b>交易价格下跌0.07%，至每股11.0美元</b>周二收盘时。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Photo: Courtesy of Jeff W on Unsplash</i></p><p><blockquote><i>照片：由Unsplash上的Jeff W提供</i></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GUID":"Guident","QTWO":"Q2 Holdings Inc","AAWH":"Ascend Wellness Holdings, Inc."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2158282119","content_text":"Vertically integrated cannabis company Ascend Wellness Holdings, Inc. (CSE:AAWH) (OTCQX:AAWH) revealed a 236.2% year-over-year and 28.5% sequential pop in gross revenue on Tuesday, which totaled $97.5 million in the second quarter of fiscal 2021, beating estimates by $4.5 million.\nAccording to its latest earnings report, net revenue improved 26.1% sequentially to $83.4 million. For the six months ended June 30, net revenue was $149.5 million, a 4% increase from the same quarter of 2020. GAAP earnings per share were negative $0.30.\n\"Our business continues to produce impressive quarter-over-quarter revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth as we scale our wholesale and retail operations across the high-quality markets where we operate,\" Abner Kurtin, founder and CEO of the New York-based company, said.\nHere's a breakdown of what the second-quarter earnings report showed:\n\nGross profit amounted to $34.5 million, accounting for 41.4% of revenue, versus $29.7 million, or 44.9% of revenue in the prior period.\nAdjusted gross profit, a non-GAAP financial measure, was $39.6 million, or 47.5% of revenue.\nAdjusted Gross Profit margin,  a non-GAAP financial measure, declined 174 basis points quarter-over-quarter to 47.5%.\nTotal general and administrative expenses totaled $30.6 million, or 36.7% of revenue, compared to $25.1 million in the first quarter of 2021. The total for other expenses was $36.8 million.\nNet loss amounted to $44.9 million, or a loss of $0.30 per basic and diluted common share.\nAdjusted EBITDA, a non-GAAP financial measure, came in positive at $20.3 million, representing a 28.3% increase quarter-over-quarter.\nAs of June 30, AWH had $104.2 million in cash and cash equivalents and total debt of $131.6 million.\n\nOperational Milestones And 2021 Revenue Guidance\nOver the quarter, the company kicked off cannabis sales in three new stores in Boston, Massachusetts, Rochelle Park, New Jersey and Chicago Ridge, Illinois, bringing its retail footprint to 18 shops nationwide.\nIn addition, the company's management increased the 2021 full-year annual revenue guidance from a range of $320 million to $340 million to a range of $330 million to $350 million.\n\"We remain focused on executing, disciplined in our approach to allocating capital, and excited about the trajectory of the company,\" Kurtin added.\nIn July, AWH announced its debut on the OTCQX Best Market.\nPrice Action\nAWH's shares were trading 0.07% lower at $11.0 per share at market close Tuesday.\nPhoto: Courtesy of Jeff W on Unsplash","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAWH":0.9,"GUID":0.9,"QTWO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3303,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":896283962,"gmtCreate":1628584728856,"gmtModify":1631890602198,"author":{"id":"3577335802381292","authorId":"3577335802381292","name":"joeyong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/966871dcabda9a3a4a0d39efe600dd1c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577335802381292","authorIdStr":"3577335802381292"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"like please&nbsp;","listText":"like please&nbsp;","text":"like 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please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/172575249","repostId":"1154266565","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154266565","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626955588,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1154266565?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-22 20:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How to invest as the Delta variant takes hold<blockquote>随着德尔塔变异毒株的到来如何投资</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154266565","media":"cnn","summary":"New York When the market is plunging like it did last Friday and on Monday, it's tempting to throw in the towel and sell. Big drops can be scary.But dumping stocks on days when the Dow is getting whacked is usually the wrong thing to do. Stocks roared back Tuesday and were up again Wednesday.If you're investing for the long haul, the best thing you can do is ride out this wave of volatility.\"Stay invested,\" said Seema Shah, chief strategist at Principal Global Investors. Shah told CNN Business t","content":"<p>New York (CNN Business)When the market is plunging like it did last Friday and on Monday, it's tempting to throw in the towel and sell. Big drops can be scary.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（CNN商业）当市场像上周五和周一那样暴跌时，人们很容易认输并卖出。大跌可能会很可怕。</blockquote></p><p> But dumping stocks on days when the Dow is getting whacked is usually the wrong thing to do. Stocks roared back Tuesday and were up again Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>但在道琼斯指数遭受重创的日子抛售股票通常是错误的做法。周二股市大幅反弹，周三再次上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Yes, the Delta variant of Covid-19 has led to an alarming uptick in coronavirus cases in the United States and around the globe. But many experts think the massive number of vaccinations that have already taken place will prevent the economy and markets from going into another tailspin.</p><p><blockquote>是的，新冠肺炎的德尔塔变异毒株导致美国和全球冠状病毒病例惊人地上升。但许多专家认为，已经进行的大量疫苗接种将防止经济和市场陷入另一场混乱。</blockquote></p><p> If you're investing for the long haul, the best thing you can do is ride out this wave of volatility.</p><p><blockquote>如果你是长期投资，你能做的最好的事情就是安然度过这波波动。</blockquote></p><p> \"Stay invested,\" said Seema Shah, chief strategist at Principal Global Investors. Shah told CNN Business that the Delta variant is highly unlikely to stop the economic recovery in the US and other parts of the developed world where vaccination rates are high.</p><p><blockquote>信安全球投资者首席策略师Seema Shah表示：“保持投资。”沙阿告诉美国有线电视新闻网商业频道，德尔塔变异毒株不太可能阻止美国和其他疫苗接种率较高的发达国家的经济复苏。</blockquote></p><p> \"The vaccine is effective,\" she said. \"If cases are rising but hospitalization rates remain low, then the reopening measures from governments will continue.\"</p><p><blockquote>“疫苗是有效的，”她说。“如果病例在上升，但住院率仍然很低，那么政府的重新开放措施将继续下去。”</blockquote></p><p> Still, Shah conceded, investors should be more selective. After all, the S&amp;P 500 has nearly doubled from its pandemic lows in March 2020, and not all stocks and sectors will maintain their momentum.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，沙阿承认，投资者应该更加挑剔。毕竟，标普500较2020年3月的大流行低点上涨了近一倍，并非所有股票和板块都将保持其势头。</blockquote></p><p> She thinks defensive sectors might start to pull back a bit. Those include utilities, health care and others companies that pay big dividends and are considered good bond proxies.</p><p><blockquote>她认为防御性板块可能会开始小幅回调。其中包括公用事业、医疗保健和其他支付高额股息并被认为是良好债券代理的公司。</blockquote></p><p> The FAANGs and other big tech stocks, many of which have strong earnings momentum and tons of cash, should continue to rally, she said.</p><p><blockquote>她表示，FAANG和其他大型科技股应该会继续上涨，其中许多股拥有强劲的盈利势头和大量现金。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Not the time to bail on the market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在不是退出市场的时候</b></blockquote></p><p> So should economic recovery plays in the travel and retail sectors that have pulled back lately on Covid concerns. United (UAL), for example, issued an upbeat outlook after the closing bell Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>旅游和零售行业的经济复苏也应该如此，这些行业最近因新冠疫情担忧而回落。例如，美联航(UAL)在周二收盘后发布了乐观的前景。</blockquote></p><p> \"Airlines have been beaten up,\" Shah said. \"But if you assume the reopening will continue, they should enjoy a significant bounceback.\"</p><p><blockquote>“航空公司受到了打击，”沙阿说。“但如果你假设重新开放将继续，他们应该会享受显着的反弹。”</blockquote></p><p> Stocks may remain bumpy for the foreseeable future, but that shouldn't dissuade investors from sticking with their longer-term investments.</p><p><blockquote>在可预见的未来，股市可能仍然坎坷，但这不应阻止投资者坚持长期投资。</blockquote></p><p> \"The uncertainty of the past couple of days is warranted for the short term,\" said Peter van der Welle, multi-asset strategist at Robeco. \"But there should be a second leg to the reflation trade.\"</p><p><blockquote>荷宝多资产策略师Peter van der Welle表示：“过去几天的不确定性在短期内是合理的。”“但通货再膨胀交易应该有第二条腿。”</blockquote></p><p> Van der Welle noted that there are many reasons to be optimistic about continued gains in consumer spending and retail sales, despite a recent drop in consumer confidence.</p><p><blockquote>范德韦勒指出，尽管近期消费者信心有所下降，但仍有许多理由对消费者支出和零售额的持续增长持乐观态度。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Buy the dips</b></p><p><blockquote><b>逢低买入</b></blockquote></p><p> Any wariness on the part of consumers — and investors, for that matter — could turn out to be fleeting.</p><p><blockquote>消费者——以及投资者——的任何谨慎都可能转瞬即逝。</blockquote></p><p> \"If you are a long-term investor, take advantage of this volatility and add to positions in companies and sectors you really like,\" said Phil Orlando, chief equity market strategist at Federated Hermes.</p><p><blockquote>Federated Hermes首席股票市场策略师菲尔·奥兰多(Phil Orlando)表示：“如果你是长期投资者，请利用这种波动性，增持你真正喜欢的公司和行业。”</blockquote></p><p> He he belives stocks in cyclical industries that have gotten hit because of Delta variant fears could enjoy the biggest rebounds.</p><p><blockquote>他认为，因德尔塔变异毒株担忧而受到打击的周期性行业股票可能会出现最大的反弹。</blockquote></p><p> \"There are stocks that have hit an air pocket that could be very attractive. We love the economically sensitive sectors,\" Orlando added, saying that banks and other financials, industrial firms, retailers and energy stocks may come roaring back.</p><p><blockquote>奥兰多补充道：“有些股票已经陷入困境，可能非常有吸引力。我们喜欢对经济敏感的行业。”他表示，银行和其他金融股、工业公司、零售商和能源股可能会大幅反弹。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How to invest as the Delta variant takes hold<blockquote>随着德尔塔变异毒株的到来如何投资</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow to invest as the Delta variant takes hold<blockquote>随着德尔塔变异毒株的到来如何投资</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">cnn</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-22 20:06</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>New York (CNN Business)When the market is plunging like it did last Friday and on Monday, it's tempting to throw in the towel and sell. Big drops can be scary.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（CNN商业）当市场像上周五和周一那样暴跌时，人们很容易认输并卖出。大跌可能会很可怕。</blockquote></p><p> But dumping stocks on days when the Dow is getting whacked is usually the wrong thing to do. Stocks roared back Tuesday and were up again Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>但在道琼斯指数遭受重创的日子抛售股票通常是错误的做法。周二股市大幅反弹，周三再次上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Yes, the Delta variant of Covid-19 has led to an alarming uptick in coronavirus cases in the United States and around the globe. But many experts think the massive number of vaccinations that have already taken place will prevent the economy and markets from going into another tailspin.</p><p><blockquote>是的，新冠肺炎的德尔塔变异毒株导致美国和全球冠状病毒病例惊人地上升。但许多专家认为，已经进行的大量疫苗接种将防止经济和市场陷入另一场混乱。</blockquote></p><p> If you're investing for the long haul, the best thing you can do is ride out this wave of volatility.</p><p><blockquote>如果你是长期投资，你能做的最好的事情就是安然度过这波波动。</blockquote></p><p> \"Stay invested,\" said Seema Shah, chief strategist at Principal Global Investors. Shah told CNN Business that the Delta variant is highly unlikely to stop the economic recovery in the US and other parts of the developed world where vaccination rates are high.</p><p><blockquote>信安全球投资者首席策略师Seema Shah表示：“保持投资。”沙阿告诉美国有线电视新闻网商业频道，德尔塔变异毒株不太可能阻止美国和其他疫苗接种率较高的发达国家的经济复苏。</blockquote></p><p> \"The vaccine is effective,\" she said. \"If cases are rising but hospitalization rates remain low, then the reopening measures from governments will continue.\"</p><p><blockquote>“疫苗是有效的，”她说。“如果病例在上升，但住院率仍然很低，那么政府的重新开放措施将继续下去。”</blockquote></p><p> Still, Shah conceded, investors should be more selective. After all, the S&amp;P 500 has nearly doubled from its pandemic lows in March 2020, and not all stocks and sectors will maintain their momentum.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，沙阿承认，投资者应该更加挑剔。毕竟，标普500较2020年3月的大流行低点上涨了近一倍，并非所有股票和板块都将保持其势头。</blockquote></p><p> She thinks defensive sectors might start to pull back a bit. Those include utilities, health care and others companies that pay big dividends and are considered good bond proxies.</p><p><blockquote>她认为防御性板块可能会开始小幅回调。其中包括公用事业、医疗保健和其他支付高额股息并被认为是良好债券代理的公司。</blockquote></p><p> The FAANGs and other big tech stocks, many of which have strong earnings momentum and tons of cash, should continue to rally, she said.</p><p><blockquote>她表示，FAANG和其他大型科技股应该会继续上涨，其中许多股拥有强劲的盈利势头和大量现金。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Not the time to bail on the market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在不是退出市场的时候</b></blockquote></p><p> So should economic recovery plays in the travel and retail sectors that have pulled back lately on Covid concerns. United (UAL), for example, issued an upbeat outlook after the closing bell Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>旅游和零售行业的经济复苏也应该如此，这些行业最近因新冠疫情担忧而回落。例如，美联航(UAL)在周二收盘后发布了乐观的前景。</blockquote></p><p> \"Airlines have been beaten up,\" Shah said. \"But if you assume the reopening will continue, they should enjoy a significant bounceback.\"</p><p><blockquote>“航空公司受到了打击，”沙阿说。“但如果你假设重新开放将继续，他们应该会享受显着的反弹。”</blockquote></p><p> Stocks may remain bumpy for the foreseeable future, but that shouldn't dissuade investors from sticking with their longer-term investments.</p><p><blockquote>在可预见的未来，股市可能仍然坎坷，但这不应阻止投资者坚持长期投资。</blockquote></p><p> \"The uncertainty of the past couple of days is warranted for the short term,\" said Peter van der Welle, multi-asset strategist at Robeco. \"But there should be a second leg to the reflation trade.\"</p><p><blockquote>荷宝多资产策略师Peter van der Welle表示：“过去几天的不确定性在短期内是合理的。”“但通货再膨胀交易应该有第二条腿。”</blockquote></p><p> Van der Welle noted that there are many reasons to be optimistic about continued gains in consumer spending and retail sales, despite a recent drop in consumer confidence.</p><p><blockquote>范德韦勒指出，尽管近期消费者信心有所下降，但仍有许多理由对消费者支出和零售额的持续增长持乐观态度。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Buy the dips</b></p><p><blockquote><b>逢低买入</b></blockquote></p><p> Any wariness on the part of consumers — and investors, for that matter — could turn out to be fleeting.</p><p><blockquote>消费者——以及投资者——的任何谨慎都可能转瞬即逝。</blockquote></p><p> \"If you are a long-term investor, take advantage of this volatility and add to positions in companies and sectors you really like,\" said Phil Orlando, chief equity market strategist at Federated Hermes.</p><p><blockquote>Federated Hermes首席股票市场策略师菲尔·奥兰多(Phil Orlando)表示：“如果你是长期投资者，请利用这种波动性，增持你真正喜欢的公司和行业。”</blockquote></p><p> He he belives stocks in cyclical industries that have gotten hit because of Delta variant fears could enjoy the biggest rebounds.</p><p><blockquote>他认为，因德尔塔变异毒株担忧而受到打击的周期性行业股票可能会出现最大的反弹。</blockquote></p><p> \"There are stocks that have hit an air pocket that could be very attractive. We love the economically sensitive sectors,\" Orlando added, saying that banks and other financials, industrial firms, retailers and energy stocks may come roaring back.</p><p><blockquote>奥兰多补充道：“有些股票已经陷入困境，可能非常有吸引力。我们喜欢对经济敏感的行业。”他表示，银行和其他金融股、工业公司、零售商和能源股可能会大幅反弹。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/07/21/investing/investing-stock-market-volatility/index.html\">cnn</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/07/21/investing/investing-stock-market-volatility/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154266565","content_text":"New York (CNN Business)When the market is plunging like it did last Friday and on Monday, it's tempting to throw in the towel and sell. Big drops can be scary.\nBut dumping stocks on days when the Dow is getting whacked is usually the wrong thing to do. Stocks roared back Tuesday and were up again Wednesday.\nYes, the Delta variant of Covid-19 has led to an alarming uptick in coronavirus cases in the United States and around the globe. But many experts think the massive number of vaccinations that have already taken place will prevent the economy and markets from going into another tailspin.\nIf you're investing for the long haul, the best thing you can do is ride out this wave of volatility.\n\"Stay invested,\" said Seema Shah, chief strategist at Principal Global Investors. Shah told CNN Business that the Delta variant is highly unlikely to stop the economic recovery in the US and other parts of the developed world where vaccination rates are high.\n\"The vaccine is effective,\" she said. \"If cases are rising but hospitalization rates remain low, then the reopening measures from governments will continue.\"\nStill, Shah conceded, investors should be more selective. After all, the S&P 500 has nearly doubled from its pandemic lows in March 2020, and not all stocks and sectors will maintain their momentum.\nShe thinks defensive sectors might start to pull back a bit. Those include utilities, health care and others companies that pay big dividends and are considered good bond proxies.\nThe FAANGs and other big tech stocks, many of which have strong earnings momentum and tons of cash, should continue to rally, she said.\nNot the time to bail on the market\nSo should economic recovery plays in the travel and retail sectors that have pulled back lately on Covid concerns. United (UAL), for example, issued an upbeat outlook after the closing bell Tuesday.\n\"Airlines have been beaten up,\" Shah said. \"But if you assume the reopening will continue, they should enjoy a significant bounceback.\"\nStocks may remain bumpy for the foreseeable future, but that shouldn't dissuade investors from sticking with their longer-term investments.\n\"The uncertainty of the past couple of days is warranted for the short term,\" said Peter van der Welle, multi-asset strategist at Robeco. \"But there should be a second leg to the reflation trade.\"\nVan der Welle noted that there are many reasons to be optimistic about continued gains in consumer spending and retail sales, despite a recent drop in consumer confidence.\nBuy the dips\nAny wariness on the part of consumers — and investors, for that matter — could turn out to be fleeting.\n\"If you are a long-term investor, take advantage of this volatility and add to positions in companies and sectors you really like,\" said Phil Orlando, chief equity market strategist at Federated Hermes.\nHe he belives stocks in cyclical industries that have gotten hit because of Delta variant fears could enjoy the biggest rebounds.\n\"There are stocks that have hit an air pocket that could be very attractive. We love the economically sensitive sectors,\" Orlando added, saying that banks and other financials, industrial firms, retailers and energy stocks may come roaring back.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2589,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":176318860,"gmtCreate":1626861182450,"gmtModify":1631890602271,"author":{"id":"3577335802381292","authorId":"3577335802381292","name":"joeyong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/966871dcabda9a3a4a0d39efe600dd1c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577335802381292","authorIdStr":"3577335802381292"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"like please&nbsp;","listText":"like please&nbsp;","text":"like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/176318860","repostId":"1105660235","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1994,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171014314,"gmtCreate":1626695745238,"gmtModify":1631890602280,"author":{"id":"3577335802381292","authorId":"3577335802381292","name":"joeyong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/966871dcabda9a3a4a0d39efe600dd1c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577335802381292","authorIdStr":"3577335802381292"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"liek please&nbsp;","listText":"liek please&nbsp;","text":"liek please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171014314","repostId":"1146536243","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146536243","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626683272,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1146536243?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-19 16:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：本轮周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146536243","media":"zerohedge","summary":"This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","content":"<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为这个经济周期将是正常的、强劲的、短暂的。这些假设中的每一个都受到市场的激烈争论。每一项都是我们投资策略的关键。</blockquote></p><p> The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p><p><blockquote>关于周期“常态”的争论是不言自明的。毫不夸张地说，疫情造成了有记录以来最大幅度的产出下降。随后，在政策支持的帮助下，经济活动迅速回升。将这种情况视为独特的，不同于其他周期性经历的理由是，这种暴力的下跌和上涨从未允许传统的“重置”。</blockquote></p><p> But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p><p><blockquote>但市场中的“正常”是一个有趣的概念，记忆的粗糙边缘往往会随着时间的推移而变得光滑和抛光。2003-07年的周期以大萧条以来最大的银行和房地产危机结束。1992-2000年的周期以巨大的股票泡沫破裂、广泛的会计欺诈和难以言喻的悲剧而告终。“正常”周期在理论上很好，但在实践中更难。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p><p><blockquote>相反，让我们考虑一下为什么我们使用术语“周期”。经济和市场往往遵循周期性模式，这些模式往往会在市场表现中显现出来。我们关心的是那些模式，如果它们仍然适用，它们可以在不确定的地形中提供有用的指导。</blockquote></p><p> Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p><p><blockquote>去年的衰退之前是否存在收益率曲线倒挂、低波动性、低失业率、高消费者信心和股市广度收窄等周期后期条件？是的。由此产生的股票、信贷、收益率和收益率曲线的低谷是否符合市场和经济低点之间的通常节奏？他们做到了。随后反弹的领头羊是否是通常的早期周期赢家，如小型股和周期性股票、高收益信贷和工业金属？他们是。</blockquote></p><p> If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are.&nbsp;If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should&nbsp;<i>continue</i>&nbsp;to do so.</p><p><blockquote>如果它像鸭子一样走路，像鸭子一样嘎嘎叫，我们认为这是一个正常的循环。或者这些事情实际上是正常的。如果到目前为止已经发生了很多“正常”的循环行为，那么它应该<i>继续</i>这样做。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see&nbsp;The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，这与市场复苏时的表现模式有关。随着复苏的推进，这些模式应该会发生变化。正如我的同事迈克尔·威尔逊所指出的，我们认为我们正在进入周期中期市场，尽管距离经济活动低点仅16个月。我们看到当前状况与2004年上半年有许多相似之处，2004年上半年是大幅通货再膨胀反弹之后的周期中期。重要的是，尽管最近对增长感到担忧，但我们认为全球复苏将继续推进（见增长恐慌周年纪念，2021年7月11日）。</blockquote></p><p> Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p><p><blockquote>因为人们总能找到适合他们特定周期观点的指标，所以我们长期以来一直是综合指数的粉丝。这就是我们的“周期模型”，它结合了美国宏观、信贷周期和企业侵略性的十个指标，以衡量我们在市场周期中的位置。在2019年6月进入周期后期“低迷”和2020年4月进入周期早期“修复”后，该指数飙升。<b>它上升得如此之快，以至于已经过了下一个阶段（“复苏”），直接进入了“扩张”。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility:&nbsp;this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p><p><blockquote>这很不寻常。“扩张”意味着捕捉“比正常情况更好且正在改善”的条件，<b>自1980年以来，“低迷”结束后平均需要35个月才能实现这一目标</b>它的迅速到来表明，在巨大的政策支持下，经济正在迅速复苏。<b>这也暗示了另一种可能性：这个更热的周期可能会更短。</b>这是我们的论点，它体现在我们的定量测量中。</blockquote></p><p> All this has a number of implications:</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都有许多含义：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li>  <li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li>  <li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li>  <li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li> </ul> This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>周期越短，信贷相对于其他风险资产越差；信贷从“繁荣”中获得的收益较少，如果下一次衰退提前到来，信贷就会面临风险，并且随着企业信心的增强，信贷将面临更多的供应</b>在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国IG和HY Credit N1200万超额回报分别比平均水平差29个基点和161个基点。</li><li><b>在其中许多时期，尽管违约率仍然很低，但信贷表现却参差不齐</b>投资者应该尝试承担违约风险而不是利差风险：我们的信用策略师喜欢持有CDX HY 0-15%，并用CDX IG付款人利差进行对冲。</li><li><b>在股票方面，我们认为我们的模型支持投资组合更加平衡</b>我们看好美国和欧洲的医疗保健行业，因为该行业具有几个良好的因素：质量、低估值、高利差和低波动性。从全球来看，欧洲和日本的股市往往跑赢“中期周期”，我们认为它们可以再次这样做。</li><li><b>利率对复苏过于悲观。在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国10年期国债1200万奈拉回报率比平均水平低97个基点</b>.Guneet Dhingra和我们的美国利率策略团队在全球资产配置中转移了跑输大盘美国10年期国债，而我们反过来又转移了跑输大盘政府债券。</li></ul>这种循环是不寻常的。大多数“正常”周期都是。我们认为复苏是可持续的，而且更有可能“更热、更短”。出售国债并相信扩张。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：本轮周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：本轮周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-19 16:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为这个经济周期将是正常的、强劲的、短暂的。这些假设中的每一个都受到市场的激烈争论。每一项都是我们投资策略的关键。</blockquote></p><p> The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p><p><blockquote>关于周期“常态”的争论是不言自明的。毫不夸张地说，疫情造成了有记录以来最大幅度的产出下降。随后，在政策支持的帮助下，经济活动迅速回升。将这种情况视为独特的，不同于其他周期性经历的理由是，这种暴力的下跌和上涨从未允许传统的“重置”。</blockquote></p><p> But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p><p><blockquote>但市场中的“正常”是一个有趣的概念，记忆的粗糙边缘往往会随着时间的推移而变得光滑和抛光。2003-07年的周期以大萧条以来最大的银行和房地产危机结束。1992-2000年的周期以巨大的股票泡沫破裂、广泛的会计欺诈和难以言喻的悲剧而告终。“正常”周期在理论上很好，但在实践中更难。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p><p><blockquote>相反，让我们考虑一下为什么我们使用术语“周期”。经济和市场往往遵循周期性模式，这些模式往往会在市场表现中显现出来。我们关心的是那些模式，如果它们仍然适用，它们可以在不确定的地形中提供有用的指导。</blockquote></p><p> Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p><p><blockquote>去年的衰退之前是否存在收益率曲线倒挂、低波动性、低失业率、高消费者信心和股市广度收窄等周期后期条件？是的。由此产生的股票、信贷、收益率和收益率曲线的低谷是否符合市场和经济低点之间的通常节奏？他们做到了。随后反弹的领头羊是否是通常的早期周期赢家，如小型股和周期性股票、高收益信贷和工业金属？他们是。</blockquote></p><p> If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are.&nbsp;If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should&nbsp;<i>continue</i>&nbsp;to do so.</p><p><blockquote>如果它像鸭子一样走路，像鸭子一样嘎嘎叫，我们认为这是一个正常的循环。或者这些事情实际上是正常的。如果到目前为止已经发生了很多“正常”的循环行为，那么它应该<i>继续</i>这样做。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see&nbsp;The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，这与市场复苏时的表现模式有关。随着复苏的推进，这些模式应该会发生变化。正如我的同事迈克尔·威尔逊所指出的，我们认为我们正在进入周期中期市场，尽管距离经济活动低点仅16个月。我们看到当前状况与2004年上半年有许多相似之处，2004年上半年是大幅通货再膨胀反弹之后的周期中期。重要的是，尽管最近对增长感到担忧，但我们认为全球复苏将继续推进（见增长恐慌周年纪念，2021年7月11日）。</blockquote></p><p> Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p><p><blockquote>因为人们总能找到适合他们特定周期观点的指标，所以我们长期以来一直是综合指数的粉丝。这就是我们的“周期模型”，它结合了美国宏观、信贷周期和企业侵略性的十个指标，以衡量我们在市场周期中的位置。在2019年6月进入周期后期“低迷”和2020年4月进入周期早期“修复”后，该指数飙升。<b>它上升得如此之快，以至于已经过了下一个阶段（“复苏”），直接进入了“扩张”。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility:&nbsp;this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p><p><blockquote>这很不寻常。“扩张”意味着捕捉“比正常情况更好且正在改善”的条件，<b>自1980年以来，“低迷”结束后平均需要35个月才能实现这一目标</b>它的迅速到来表明，在巨大的政策支持下，经济正在迅速复苏。<b>这也暗示了另一种可能性：这个更热的周期可能会更短。</b>这是我们的论点，它体现在我们的定量测量中。</blockquote></p><p> All this has a number of implications:</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都有许多含义：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li>  <li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li>  <li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li>  <li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li> </ul> This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>周期越短，信贷相对于其他风险资产越差；信贷从“繁荣”中获得的收益较少，如果下一次衰退提前到来，信贷就会面临风险，并且随着企业信心的增强，信贷将面临更多的供应</b>在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国IG和HY Credit N1200万超额回报分别比平均水平差29个基点和161个基点。</li><li><b>在其中许多时期，尽管违约率仍然很低，但信贷表现却参差不齐</b>投资者应该尝试承担违约风险而不是利差风险：我们的信用策略师喜欢持有CDX HY 0-15%，并用CDX IG付款人利差进行对冲。</li><li><b>在股票方面，我们认为我们的模型支持投资组合更加平衡</b>我们看好美国和欧洲的医疗保健行业，因为该行业具有几个良好的因素：质量、低估值、高利差和低波动性。从全球来看，欧洲和日本的股市往往跑赢“中期周期”，我们认为它们可以再次这样做。</li><li><b>利率对复苏过于悲观。在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国10年期国债1200万奈拉回报率比平均水平低97个基点</b>.Guneet Dhingra和我们的美国利率策略团队在全球资产配置中转移了跑输大盘美国10年期国债，而我们反过来又转移了跑输大盘政府债券。</li></ul>这种循环是不寻常的。大多数“正常”周期都是。我们认为复苏是可持续的，而且更有可能“更热、更短”。出售国债并相信扩张。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146536243","content_text":"We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.\nThe debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.\nBut 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.\nInstead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.\nWas last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.\nIf it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are. If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should continue to do so.\nSpecifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).\nBecause one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.\nThisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.It also hints at another possibility: this hotter cycle could be shorter.This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.\nAll this has a number of implications:\n\nThe shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.\nIn many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.\nIn equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.\nInterest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.\n\nThis cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. 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you!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/342434179","repostId":"1194635432","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":706,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":180455028,"gmtCreate":1623222593664,"gmtModify":1634035641514,"author":{"id":"3577335802381292","authorId":"3577335802381292","name":"joeyong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/966871dcabda9a3a4a0d39efe600dd1c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577335802381292","authorIdStr":"3577335802381292"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"like and comment pls&nbsp;","listText":"like and comment pls&nbsp;","text":"like and comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/180455028","repostId":"1106409298","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1106409298","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623222037,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1106409298?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-09 15:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Micron Technology Stock Fell on Tuesday<blockquote>为什么美光科技股价周二下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106409298","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"A pair of dueling analysts disagree on Micron's prospects.\n\nWhat happened\nShares of memory and digit","content":"<p>  <b>A pair of dueling analysts disagree on Micron's prospects.</b>  <b>What happened</b></p><p><blockquote><b>两位对立的分析师对美光科技的前景存在分歧。</b><b>发生了什么</b></blockquote></p><p> Shares of memory and digital storage specialist<b>Micron Technology</b>(NASDAQ:MU)fell sharply on Tuesday. As of 2:45 p.m. EDT today, the stock was down almost 5%.</p><p><blockquote>内存和数字存储专家的股票<b>美光科技</b>（纳斯达克：MU）周二大幅下跌。截至下午2:45美国东部时间今天，该股下跌了近5%。</blockquote></p><p> The stock's pullback comes as one research firm expressed concern over the outlook for dynamic random access memory (DRAM) pricing.</p><p><blockquote>该股回调之际，一家研究公司对动态随机存取存储器（DRAM）定价前景表示担忧。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那又怎样</b></blockquote></p><p> Thetech stockfell on news that Edgewater Research analysts predicted softer demand and improved inventory leading to lower DRAM prices in the second half of the year.</p><p><blockquote>有消息称，Edgewater Research分析师预测需求疲软和库存改善将导致下半年DRAM价格下跌，科技股下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Rosenblatt analyst Hans Mosesmann responded to the forecast by noting that Rosenblatt's checks indicate strong price momentum for DRAM. Indeed, Mosesmann predicts pricing growth throughout the year. The analyst even reiterated a $165 12-month price target for the stock, which represents more than 100% upside from where it is trading today.</p><p><blockquote>Rosenblatt分析师Hans Mosesmann对这一预测做出了回应，指出Rosenblatt的检查表明DRAM的价格势头强劲。事实上，摩西曼预测全年价格将会增长。该分析师甚至重申了该股165美元的12个月目标价，较今天的交易价格上涨了100%以上。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Now what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在怎么办</b></blockquote></p><p> Investors will get more insight into Micron's recent business performance and management's view for the rest of the year when the company reports earnings later this month. It is slated to announce its fiscal third-quarter results on Wednesday, June 30.</p><p><blockquote>当美光科技本月晚些时候公布财报时，投资者将更多地了解该公司近期的业务表现以及管理层对今年剩余时间的看法。该公司定于6月30日星期三公布第三财季业绩。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Micron Technology Stock Fell on Tuesday<blockquote>为什么美光科技股价周二下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Micron Technology Stock Fell on Tuesday<blockquote>为什么美光科技股价周二下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-09 15:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>A pair of dueling analysts disagree on Micron's prospects.</b>  <b>What happened</b></p><p><blockquote><b>两位对立的分析师对美光科技的前景存在分歧。</b><b>发生了什么</b></blockquote></p><p> Shares of memory and digital storage specialist<b>Micron Technology</b>(NASDAQ:MU)fell sharply on Tuesday. As of 2:45 p.m. EDT today, the stock was down almost 5%.</p><p><blockquote>内存和数字存储专家的股票<b>美光科技</b>（纳斯达克：MU）周二大幅下跌。截至下午2:45美国东部时间今天，该股下跌了近5%。</blockquote></p><p> The stock's pullback comes as one research firm expressed concern over the outlook for dynamic random access memory (DRAM) pricing.</p><p><blockquote>该股回调之际，一家研究公司对动态随机存取存储器（DRAM）定价前景表示担忧。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那又怎样</b></blockquote></p><p> Thetech stockfell on news that Edgewater Research analysts predicted softer demand and improved inventory leading to lower DRAM prices in the second half of the year.</p><p><blockquote>有消息称，Edgewater Research分析师预测需求疲软和库存改善将导致下半年DRAM价格下跌，科技股下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Rosenblatt analyst Hans Mosesmann responded to the forecast by noting that Rosenblatt's checks indicate strong price momentum for DRAM. Indeed, Mosesmann predicts pricing growth throughout the year. The analyst even reiterated a $165 12-month price target for the stock, which represents more than 100% upside from where it is trading today.</p><p><blockquote>Rosenblatt分析师Hans Mosesmann对这一预测做出了回应，指出Rosenblatt的检查表明DRAM的价格势头强劲。事实上，摩西曼预测全年价格将会增长。该分析师甚至重申了该股165美元的12个月目标价，较今天的交易价格上涨了100%以上。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Now what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在怎么办</b></blockquote></p><p> Investors will get more insight into Micron's recent business performance and management's view for the rest of the year when the company reports earnings later this month. It is slated to announce its fiscal third-quarter results on Wednesday, June 30.</p><p><blockquote>当美光科技本月晚些时候公布财报时，投资者将更多地了解该公司近期的业务表现以及管理层对今年剩余时间的看法。该公司定于6月30日星期三公布第三财季业绩。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/08/why-micron-technology-stock-fell-on-tuesday/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MU":"美光科技"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/08/why-micron-technology-stock-fell-on-tuesday/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106409298","content_text":"A pair of dueling analysts disagree on Micron's prospects.\n\nWhat happened\nShares of memory and digital storage specialistMicron Technology(NASDAQ:MU)fell sharply on Tuesday. As of 2:45 p.m. EDT today, the stock was down almost 5%.\nThe stock's pullback comes as one research firm expressed concern over the outlook for dynamic random access memory (DRAM) pricing.\nSo what\nThetech stockfell on news that Edgewater Research analysts predicted softer demand and improved inventory leading to lower DRAM prices in the second half of the year.\nRosenblatt analyst Hans Mosesmann responded to the forecast by noting that Rosenblatt's checks indicate strong price momentum for DRAM. Indeed, Mosesmann predicts pricing growth throughout the year. The analyst even reiterated a $165 12-month price target for the stock, which represents more than 100% upside from where it is trading today.\nNow what\nInvestors will get more insight into Micron's recent business performance and management's view for the rest of the year when the company reports earnings later this month. It is slated to announce its fiscal third-quarter results on Wednesday, June 30.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":207,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":352834789,"gmtCreate":1616924669441,"gmtModify":1634523514780,"author":{"id":"3577335802381292","authorId":"3577335802381292","name":"joeyong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/966871dcabda9a3a4a0d39efe600dd1c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577335802381292","authorIdStr":"3577335802381292"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"like and reply pls!&nbsp;","listText":"like and reply pls!&nbsp;","text":"like and reply pls!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/352834789","repostId":"1111192234","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111192234","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616772179,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1111192234?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-26 23:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Deliveries Are Coming. They Matter More Than Ever. Here’s What to Expect.<blockquote>特斯拉交付即将到来。它们比以往任何时候都重要。这是可以期待的。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111192234","media":"Barrons","summary":"The first quarter ends in just a few days. That means more delivery data from auto makers is due. For investors, the figures will be higher stakes than usual. The reason is simple: The global automotive microchip shortage is roiling the entire car business.Numbers will matter even more for richly valued, high-growth companies such as Tesla. Tesla investors want growth, and the chip situation is squeezing growth. Both General Motors and Ford Motor have taken unexpected plant downtime recently and","content":"<p>The first quarter ends in just a few days. That means more delivery data from auto makers is due. For investors, the figures will be higher stakes than usual. The reason is simple: The global automotive microchip shortage is roiling the entire car business.</p><p><blockquote>第一季度再过几天就结束了。这意味着汽车制造商的更多交付数据即将发布。对于投资者来说，这些数字将比平时更重要。原因很简单：全球汽车微芯片短缺正在扰乱整个汽车行业。</blockquote></p><p> Numbers will matter even more for richly valued, high-growth companies such as&nbsp;Tesla(ticker: TSLA). Tesla investors want growth, and the chip situation is squeezing growth. Both&nbsp;General Motors(GM) and&nbsp;Ford Motor(F) have taken unexpected plant downtime recently and have called the chip issue a billion-dollar profit headwind for 2021. That’s not what investors want to hear.</p><p><blockquote>对于特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）等估值高、高增长的公司来说，数字将更加重要。特斯拉投资者想要增长，而芯片形势正在挤压增长。通用汽车(GM)和福特汽车(F)最近都意外停工，并称芯片问题是2021年10亿美元利润的阻力。这不是投资者想听到的。</blockquote></p><p> Everyone is aware of the issue. Still, when first-quarter data is released, investors have to decide whether or not to give Tesla, or any other fast-growing EV maker, a pass if results are weaker than expected.</p><p><blockquote>每个人都意识到了这个问题。尽管如此，当第一季度数据公布时，如果业绩弱于预期，投资者必须决定是否给特斯拉或任何其他快速增长的电动汽车制造商一个通行证。</blockquote></p><p> So far the market isn’t feeling charitable. But the sample size is only one stock.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，市场并不仁慈。但样本量只有一只股票。</blockquote></p><p> NIO&nbsp;shares (NIO) are down more than 6% in Friday trading after the EV maker&nbsp;reduced guidance&nbsp;for first-quarter deliveries from about 20,250 cars to about 19,500. NIO management cited the chip shortage and is shutting a manufacturing plant for five days starting March 29.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车制造商蔚来（蔚来）将第一季度交付量指引从约20,250辆下调至约19,500辆，该公司股价在周五交易中下跌超过6%。蔚来管理层以芯片短缺为由，将从3月29日开始关闭一家制造工厂五天。</blockquote></p><p> For Tesla, Wall Street is looking for about 162,000 vehicles delivered in March. That’s down from a peak estimate of about 183,000 vehicles. Analysts seem to be reducing numbers, possibly because of the shortage.</p><p><blockquote>对于特斯拉，华尔街正在寻找3月份交付的约16.2万辆汽车。这低于峰值估计的约183,000辆。分析师似乎正在减少数量，可能是因为短缺。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla delivered about 181,000 vehicles in the&nbsp;fourth quarter. For the full year 2021, analysts are looking for almost 800,000 vehicle deliveries, up about 60% year over year.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉第四季度交付了约18.1万辆汽车。分析师预计2021年全年汽车交付量将接近80万辆，同比增长约60%。</blockquote></p><p> RBC analyst&nbsp;Joe Spak&nbsp;is forecasting 170,000 first-quarter deliveries, up more than 90% year over year. He also forecasts Tesla will make 96,000 cars in California and 74,000 cars in China during the quarter. “Consensus [estimate] looks mostly reasonable,” wrote Spak in a Thursday report. “We do look for updates to see how the semi shortage is impacting&nbsp;Tesla—as it has the rest of the industry.” He sees some additional downside risk to estimates, especially for second-quarter numbers, because of chips.</p><p><blockquote>RBC分析师Joe Spak预测第一季度交付量为17万辆，同比增长90%以上。他还预测，本季度特斯拉将在加州生产96,000辆汽车，在中国生产74,000辆汽车。斯帕克在周四的一份报告中写道：“共识[估计]看起来基本合理。”“我们确实在寻找最新消息，以了解semi短缺如何影响特斯拉——就像它对行业其他部门一样。”他认为，由于芯片的原因，预期存在一些额外的下行风险，尤其是第二季度的数据。</blockquote></p><p> Spak rates Tesla stock Hold and has a $725 price target for shares.</p><p><blockquote>Spak将特斯拉股票评级为持有，目标价为725美元。</blockquote></p><p> In the case of Tesla stock, the chip shortage has taken a back seat to rising interest rates. Rising rateshit growth stocksin two main ways. For starters, it makes growth more expensive to finance. NIO isn’t profitable yet. High-growth companies generate most of their cash flow far in the future. That cash flow is worth a little less, relatively speaking, when investors can earn higher interest rates on their cash today.</p><p><blockquote>就特斯拉股票而言，芯片短缺已经让位于利率上升。利率上升主要以两种方式影响成长型股票。首先，这使得增长的融资成本更高。蔚来尚未盈利。高增长公司的大部分现金流是在遥远的未来产生的。相对而言，当投资者今天可以用现金赚取更高的利率时，现金流的价值就会低一些。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla stock is down roughly 10% year to date after rising more than 740% in 2020. Shares are down 0.9% in early Friday trading, at $634.40. The&nbsp;S&amp;P 500is up about 0.7%.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价在2020年上涨超过740%后，今年迄今已下跌约10%。周五早盘交易中，股价下跌0.9%，至634.40美元。标准普尔500指数上涨约0.7%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Deliveries Are Coming. They Matter More Than Ever. Here’s What to Expect.<blockquote>特斯拉交付即将到来。它们比以往任何时候都重要。这是可以期待的。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Deliveries Are Coming. They Matter More Than Ever. Here’s What to Expect.<blockquote>特斯拉交付即将到来。它们比以往任何时候都重要。这是可以期待的。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-26 23:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The first quarter ends in just a few days. That means more delivery data from auto makers is due. For investors, the figures will be higher stakes than usual. The reason is simple: The global automotive microchip shortage is roiling the entire car business.</p><p><blockquote>第一季度再过几天就结束了。这意味着汽车制造商的更多交付数据即将发布。对于投资者来说，这些数字将比平时更重要。原因很简单：全球汽车微芯片短缺正在扰乱整个汽车行业。</blockquote></p><p> Numbers will matter even more for richly valued, high-growth companies such as&nbsp;Tesla(ticker: TSLA). Tesla investors want growth, and the chip situation is squeezing growth. Both&nbsp;General Motors(GM) and&nbsp;Ford Motor(F) have taken unexpected plant downtime recently and have called the chip issue a billion-dollar profit headwind for 2021. That’s not what investors want to hear.</p><p><blockquote>对于特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）等估值高、高增长的公司来说，数字将更加重要。特斯拉投资者想要增长，而芯片形势正在挤压增长。通用汽车(GM)和福特汽车(F)最近都意外停工，并称芯片问题是2021年10亿美元利润的阻力。这不是投资者想听到的。</blockquote></p><p> Everyone is aware of the issue. Still, when first-quarter data is released, investors have to decide whether or not to give Tesla, or any other fast-growing EV maker, a pass if results are weaker than expected.</p><p><blockquote>每个人都意识到了这个问题。尽管如此，当第一季度数据公布时，如果业绩弱于预期，投资者必须决定是否给特斯拉或任何其他快速增长的电动汽车制造商一个通行证。</blockquote></p><p> So far the market isn’t feeling charitable. But the sample size is only one stock.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，市场并不仁慈。但样本量只有一只股票。</blockquote></p><p> NIO&nbsp;shares (NIO) are down more than 6% in Friday trading after the EV maker&nbsp;reduced guidance&nbsp;for first-quarter deliveries from about 20,250 cars to about 19,500. NIO management cited the chip shortage and is shutting a manufacturing plant for five days starting March 29.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车制造商蔚来（蔚来）将第一季度交付量指引从约20,250辆下调至约19,500辆，该公司股价在周五交易中下跌超过6%。蔚来管理层以芯片短缺为由，将从3月29日开始关闭一家制造工厂五天。</blockquote></p><p> For Tesla, Wall Street is looking for about 162,000 vehicles delivered in March. That’s down from a peak estimate of about 183,000 vehicles. Analysts seem to be reducing numbers, possibly because of the shortage.</p><p><blockquote>对于特斯拉，华尔街正在寻找3月份交付的约16.2万辆汽车。这低于峰值估计的约183,000辆。分析师似乎正在减少数量，可能是因为短缺。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla delivered about 181,000 vehicles in the&nbsp;fourth quarter. For the full year 2021, analysts are looking for almost 800,000 vehicle deliveries, up about 60% year over year.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉第四季度交付了约18.1万辆汽车。分析师预计2021年全年汽车交付量将接近80万辆，同比增长约60%。</blockquote></p><p> RBC analyst&nbsp;Joe Spak&nbsp;is forecasting 170,000 first-quarter deliveries, up more than 90% year over year. He also forecasts Tesla will make 96,000 cars in California and 74,000 cars in China during the quarter. “Consensus [estimate] looks mostly reasonable,” wrote Spak in a Thursday report. “We do look for updates to see how the semi shortage is impacting&nbsp;Tesla—as it has the rest of the industry.” He sees some additional downside risk to estimates, especially for second-quarter numbers, because of chips.</p><p><blockquote>RBC分析师Joe Spak预测第一季度交付量为17万辆，同比增长90%以上。他还预测，本季度特斯拉将在加州生产96,000辆汽车，在中国生产74,000辆汽车。斯帕克在周四的一份报告中写道：“共识[估计]看起来基本合理。”“我们确实在寻找最新消息，以了解semi短缺如何影响特斯拉——就像它对行业其他部门一样。”他认为，由于芯片的原因，预期存在一些额外的下行风险，尤其是第二季度的数据。</blockquote></p><p> Spak rates Tesla stock Hold and has a $725 price target for shares.</p><p><blockquote>Spak将特斯拉股票评级为持有，目标价为725美元。</blockquote></p><p> In the case of Tesla stock, the chip shortage has taken a back seat to rising interest rates. Rising rateshit growth stocksin two main ways. For starters, it makes growth more expensive to finance. NIO isn’t profitable yet. High-growth companies generate most of their cash flow far in the future. That cash flow is worth a little less, relatively speaking, when investors can earn higher interest rates on their cash today.</p><p><blockquote>就特斯拉股票而言，芯片短缺已经让位于利率上升。利率上升主要以两种方式影响成长型股票。首先，这使得增长的融资成本更高。蔚来尚未盈利。高增长公司的大部分现金流是在遥远的未来产生的。相对而言，当投资者今天可以用现金赚取更高的利率时，现金流的价值就会低一些。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla stock is down roughly 10% year to date after rising more than 740% in 2020. Shares are down 0.9% in early Friday trading, at $634.40. The&nbsp;S&amp;P 500is up about 0.7%.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价在2020年上涨超过740%后，今年迄今已下跌约10%。周五早盘交易中，股价下跌0.9%，至634.40美元。标准普尔500指数上涨约0.7%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-deliveries-are-coming-they-matter-more-than-ever-heres-what-to-expect-51616769819?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_1_3\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-deliveries-are-coming-they-matter-more-than-ever-heres-what-to-expect-51616769819?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_1_3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111192234","content_text":"The first quarter ends in just a few days. That means more delivery data from auto makers is due. For investors, the figures will be higher stakes than usual. The reason is simple: The global automotive microchip shortage is roiling the entire car business.\nNumbers will matter even more for richly valued, high-growth companies such as Tesla(ticker: TSLA). Tesla investors want growth, and the chip situation is squeezing growth. Both General Motors(GM) and Ford Motor(F) have taken unexpected plant downtime recently and have called the chip issue a billion-dollar profit headwind for 2021. That’s not what investors want to hear.\nEveryone is aware of the issue. Still, when first-quarter data is released, investors have to decide whether or not to give Tesla, or any other fast-growing EV maker, a pass if results are weaker than expected.\nSo far the market isn’t feeling charitable. But the sample size is only one stock.\nNIO shares (NIO) are down more than 6% in Friday trading after the EV maker reduced guidance for first-quarter deliveries from about 20,250 cars to about 19,500. NIO management cited the chip shortage and is shutting a manufacturing plant for five days starting March 29.\nFor Tesla, Wall Street is looking for about 162,000 vehicles delivered in March. That’s down from a peak estimate of about 183,000 vehicles. Analysts seem to be reducing numbers, possibly because of the shortage.\nTesla delivered about 181,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter. For the full year 2021, analysts are looking for almost 800,000 vehicle deliveries, up about 60% year over year.\nRBC analyst Joe Spak is forecasting 170,000 first-quarter deliveries, up more than 90% year over year. He also forecasts Tesla will make 96,000 cars in California and 74,000 cars in China during the quarter. “Consensus [estimate] looks mostly reasonable,” wrote Spak in a Thursday report. “We do look for updates to see how the semi shortage is impacting Tesla—as it has the rest of the industry.” He sees some additional downside risk to estimates, especially for second-quarter numbers, because of chips.\nSpak rates Tesla stock Hold and has a $725 price target for shares.\nIn the case of Tesla stock, the chip shortage has taken a back seat to rising interest rates. Rising rateshit growth stocksin two main ways. For starters, it makes growth more expensive to finance. NIO isn’t profitable yet. High-growth companies generate most of their cash flow far in the future. That cash flow is worth a little less, relatively speaking, when investors can earn higher interest rates on their cash today.\nTesla stock is down roughly 10% year to date after rising more than 740% in 2020. Shares are down 0.9% in early Friday trading, at $634.40. The S&P 500is up about 0.7%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":363,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":352097410,"gmtCreate":1616826303630,"gmtModify":1634523796258,"author":{"id":"3577335802381292","authorId":"3577335802381292","name":"joeyong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/966871dcabda9a3a4a0d39efe600dd1c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577335802381292","authorIdStr":"3577335802381292"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"like and comment pls! TESLA!!!&nbsp;","listText":"like and comment pls! TESLA!!!&nbsp;","text":"like and comment pls! TESLA!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/352097410","repostId":"1111192234","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111192234","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616772179,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1111192234?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-26 23:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Deliveries Are Coming. They Matter More Than Ever. Here’s What to Expect.<blockquote>特斯拉交付即将到来。它们比以往任何时候都重要。这是可以期待的。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111192234","media":"Barrons","summary":"The first quarter ends in just a few days. That means more delivery data from auto makers is due. For investors, the figures will be higher stakes than usual. The reason is simple: The global automotive microchip shortage is roiling the entire car business.Numbers will matter even more for richly valued, high-growth companies such as Tesla. Tesla investors want growth, and the chip situation is squeezing growth. Both General Motors and Ford Motor have taken unexpected plant downtime recently and","content":"<p>The first quarter ends in just a few days. That means more delivery data from auto makers is due. For investors, the figures will be higher stakes than usual. The reason is simple: The global automotive microchip shortage is roiling the entire car business.</p><p><blockquote>第一季度再过几天就结束了。这意味着汽车制造商的更多交付数据即将发布。对于投资者来说，这些数字将比平时更重要。原因很简单：全球汽车微芯片短缺正在扰乱整个汽车行业。</blockquote></p><p> Numbers will matter even more for richly valued, high-growth companies such as&nbsp;Tesla(ticker: TSLA). Tesla investors want growth, and the chip situation is squeezing growth. Both&nbsp;General Motors(GM) and&nbsp;Ford Motor(F) have taken unexpected plant downtime recently and have called the chip issue a billion-dollar profit headwind for 2021. That’s not what investors want to hear.</p><p><blockquote>对于特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）等估值高、高增长的公司来说，数字将更加重要。特斯拉投资者想要增长，而芯片形势正在挤压增长。通用汽车(GM)和福特汽车(F)最近都意外停工，并称芯片问题是2021年10亿美元利润的阻力。这不是投资者想听到的。</blockquote></p><p> Everyone is aware of the issue. Still, when first-quarter data is released, investors have to decide whether or not to give Tesla, or any other fast-growing EV maker, a pass if results are weaker than expected.</p><p><blockquote>每个人都意识到了这个问题。尽管如此，当第一季度数据公布时，如果业绩弱于预期，投资者必须决定是否给特斯拉或任何其他快速增长的电动汽车制造商一个通行证。</blockquote></p><p> So far the market isn’t feeling charitable. But the sample size is only one stock.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，市场并不仁慈。但样本量只有一只股票。</blockquote></p><p> NIO&nbsp;shares (NIO) are down more than 6% in Friday trading after the EV maker&nbsp;reduced guidance&nbsp;for first-quarter deliveries from about 20,250 cars to about 19,500. NIO management cited the chip shortage and is shutting a manufacturing plant for five days starting March 29.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车制造商蔚来（蔚来）将第一季度交付量指引从约20,250辆下调至约19,500辆，该公司股价在周五交易中下跌超过6%。蔚来管理层以芯片短缺为由，将从3月29日开始关闭一家制造工厂五天。</blockquote></p><p> For Tesla, Wall Street is looking for about 162,000 vehicles delivered in March. That’s down from a peak estimate of about 183,000 vehicles. Analysts seem to be reducing numbers, possibly because of the shortage.</p><p><blockquote>对于特斯拉，华尔街正在寻找3月份交付的约16.2万辆汽车。这低于峰值估计的约183,000辆。分析师似乎正在减少数量，可能是因为短缺。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla delivered about 181,000 vehicles in the&nbsp;fourth quarter. For the full year 2021, analysts are looking for almost 800,000 vehicle deliveries, up about 60% year over year.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉第四季度交付了约18.1万辆汽车。分析师预计2021年全年汽车交付量将接近80万辆，同比增长约60%。</blockquote></p><p> RBC analyst&nbsp;Joe Spak&nbsp;is forecasting 170,000 first-quarter deliveries, up more than 90% year over year. He also forecasts Tesla will make 96,000 cars in California and 74,000 cars in China during the quarter. “Consensus [estimate] looks mostly reasonable,” wrote Spak in a Thursday report. “We do look for updates to see how the semi shortage is impacting&nbsp;Tesla—as it has the rest of the industry.” He sees some additional downside risk to estimates, especially for second-quarter numbers, because of chips.</p><p><blockquote>RBC分析师Joe Spak预测第一季度交付量为17万辆，同比增长90%以上。他还预测，本季度特斯拉将在加州生产96,000辆汽车，在中国生产74,000辆汽车。斯帕克在周四的一份报告中写道：“共识[估计]看起来基本合理。”“我们确实在寻找最新消息，以了解semi短缺如何影响特斯拉——就像它对行业其他部门一样。”他认为，由于芯片的原因，预期存在一些额外的下行风险，尤其是第二季度的数据。</blockquote></p><p> Spak rates Tesla stock Hold and has a $725 price target for shares.</p><p><blockquote>Spak将特斯拉股票评级为持有，目标价为725美元。</blockquote></p><p> In the case of Tesla stock, the chip shortage has taken a back seat to rising interest rates. Rising rateshit growth stocksin two main ways. For starters, it makes growth more expensive to finance. NIO isn’t profitable yet. High-growth companies generate most of their cash flow far in the future. That cash flow is worth a little less, relatively speaking, when investors can earn higher interest rates on their cash today.</p><p><blockquote>就特斯拉股票而言，芯片短缺已经让位于利率上升。利率上升主要以两种方式影响成长型股票。首先，这使得增长的融资成本更高。蔚来尚未盈利。高增长公司的大部分现金流是在遥远的未来产生的。相对而言，当投资者今天可以用现金赚取更高的利率时，现金流的价值就会低一些。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla stock is down roughly 10% year to date after rising more than 740% in 2020. Shares are down 0.9% in early Friday trading, at $634.40. The&nbsp;S&amp;P 500is up about 0.7%.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价在2020年上涨超过740%后，今年迄今已下跌约10%。周五早盘交易中，股价下跌0.9%，至634.40美元。标准普尔500指数上涨约0.7%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Deliveries Are Coming. They Matter More Than Ever. Here’s What to Expect.<blockquote>特斯拉交付即将到来。它们比以往任何时候都重要。这是可以期待的。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Deliveries Are Coming. They Matter More Than Ever. Here’s What to Expect.<blockquote>特斯拉交付即将到来。它们比以往任何时候都重要。这是可以期待的。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-26 23:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The first quarter ends in just a few days. That means more delivery data from auto makers is due. For investors, the figures will be higher stakes than usual. The reason is simple: The global automotive microchip shortage is roiling the entire car business.</p><p><blockquote>第一季度再过几天就结束了。这意味着汽车制造商的更多交付数据即将发布。对于投资者来说，这些数字将比平时更重要。原因很简单：全球汽车微芯片短缺正在扰乱整个汽车行业。</blockquote></p><p> Numbers will matter even more for richly valued, high-growth companies such as&nbsp;Tesla(ticker: TSLA). Tesla investors want growth, and the chip situation is squeezing growth. Both&nbsp;General Motors(GM) and&nbsp;Ford Motor(F) have taken unexpected plant downtime recently and have called the chip issue a billion-dollar profit headwind for 2021. That’s not what investors want to hear.</p><p><blockquote>对于特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）等估值高、高增长的公司来说，数字将更加重要。特斯拉投资者想要增长，而芯片形势正在挤压增长。通用汽车(GM)和福特汽车(F)最近都意外停工，并称芯片问题是2021年10亿美元利润的阻力。这不是投资者想听到的。</blockquote></p><p> Everyone is aware of the issue. Still, when first-quarter data is released, investors have to decide whether or not to give Tesla, or any other fast-growing EV maker, a pass if results are weaker than expected.</p><p><blockquote>每个人都意识到了这个问题。尽管如此，当第一季度数据公布时，如果业绩弱于预期，投资者必须决定是否给特斯拉或任何其他快速增长的电动汽车制造商一个通行证。</blockquote></p><p> So far the market isn’t feeling charitable. But the sample size is only one stock.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，市场并不仁慈。但样本量只有一只股票。</blockquote></p><p> NIO&nbsp;shares (NIO) are down more than 6% in Friday trading after the EV maker&nbsp;reduced guidance&nbsp;for first-quarter deliveries from about 20,250 cars to about 19,500. NIO management cited the chip shortage and is shutting a manufacturing plant for five days starting March 29.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车制造商蔚来（蔚来）将第一季度交付量指引从约20,250辆下调至约19,500辆，该公司股价在周五交易中下跌超过6%。蔚来管理层以芯片短缺为由，将从3月29日开始关闭一家制造工厂五天。</blockquote></p><p> For Tesla, Wall Street is looking for about 162,000 vehicles delivered in March. That’s down from a peak estimate of about 183,000 vehicles. Analysts seem to be reducing numbers, possibly because of the shortage.</p><p><blockquote>对于特斯拉，华尔街正在寻找3月份交付的约16.2万辆汽车。这低于峰值估计的约183,000辆。分析师似乎正在减少数量，可能是因为短缺。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla delivered about 181,000 vehicles in the&nbsp;fourth quarter. For the full year 2021, analysts are looking for almost 800,000 vehicle deliveries, up about 60% year over year.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉第四季度交付了约18.1万辆汽车。分析师预计2021年全年汽车交付量将接近80万辆，同比增长约60%。</blockquote></p><p> RBC analyst&nbsp;Joe Spak&nbsp;is forecasting 170,000 first-quarter deliveries, up more than 90% year over year. He also forecasts Tesla will make 96,000 cars in California and 74,000 cars in China during the quarter. “Consensus [estimate] looks mostly reasonable,” wrote Spak in a Thursday report. “We do look for updates to see how the semi shortage is impacting&nbsp;Tesla—as it has the rest of the industry.” He sees some additional downside risk to estimates, especially for second-quarter numbers, because of chips.</p><p><blockquote>RBC分析师Joe Spak预测第一季度交付量为17万辆，同比增长90%以上。他还预测，本季度特斯拉将在加州生产96,000辆汽车，在中国生产74,000辆汽车。斯帕克在周四的一份报告中写道：“共识[估计]看起来基本合理。”“我们确实在寻找最新消息，以了解semi短缺如何影响特斯拉——就像它对行业其他部门一样。”他认为，由于芯片的原因，预期存在一些额外的下行风险，尤其是第二季度的数据。</blockquote></p><p> Spak rates Tesla stock Hold and has a $725 price target for shares.</p><p><blockquote>Spak将特斯拉股票评级为持有，目标价为725美元。</blockquote></p><p> In the case of Tesla stock, the chip shortage has taken a back seat to rising interest rates. Rising rateshit growth stocksin two main ways. For starters, it makes growth more expensive to finance. NIO isn’t profitable yet. High-growth companies generate most of their cash flow far in the future. That cash flow is worth a little less, relatively speaking, when investors can earn higher interest rates on their cash today.</p><p><blockquote>就特斯拉股票而言，芯片短缺已经让位于利率上升。利率上升主要以两种方式影响成长型股票。首先，这使得增长的融资成本更高。蔚来尚未盈利。高增长公司的大部分现金流是在遥远的未来产生的。相对而言，当投资者今天可以用现金赚取更高的利率时，现金流的价值就会低一些。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla stock is down roughly 10% year to date after rising more than 740% in 2020. Shares are down 0.9% in early Friday trading, at $634.40. The&nbsp;S&amp;P 500is up about 0.7%.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价在2020年上涨超过740%后，今年迄今已下跌约10%。周五早盘交易中，股价下跌0.9%，至634.40美元。标准普尔500指数上涨约0.7%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-deliveries-are-coming-they-matter-more-than-ever-heres-what-to-expect-51616769819?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_1_3\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-deliveries-are-coming-they-matter-more-than-ever-heres-what-to-expect-51616769819?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_1_3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111192234","content_text":"The first quarter ends in just a few days. That means more delivery data from auto makers is due. For investors, the figures will be higher stakes than usual. The reason is simple: The global automotive microchip shortage is roiling the entire car business.\nNumbers will matter even more for richly valued, high-growth companies such as Tesla(ticker: TSLA). Tesla investors want growth, and the chip situation is squeezing growth. Both General Motors(GM) and Ford Motor(F) have taken unexpected plant downtime recently and have called the chip issue a billion-dollar profit headwind for 2021. That’s not what investors want to hear.\nEveryone is aware of the issue. Still, when first-quarter data is released, investors have to decide whether or not to give Tesla, or any other fast-growing EV maker, a pass if results are weaker than expected.\nSo far the market isn’t feeling charitable. But the sample size is only one stock.\nNIO shares (NIO) are down more than 6% in Friday trading after the EV maker reduced guidance for first-quarter deliveries from about 20,250 cars to about 19,500. NIO management cited the chip shortage and is shutting a manufacturing plant for five days starting March 29.\nFor Tesla, Wall Street is looking for about 162,000 vehicles delivered in March. That’s down from a peak estimate of about 183,000 vehicles. Analysts seem to be reducing numbers, possibly because of the shortage.\nTesla delivered about 181,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter. For the full year 2021, analysts are looking for almost 800,000 vehicle deliveries, up about 60% year over year.\nRBC analyst Joe Spak is forecasting 170,000 first-quarter deliveries, up more than 90% year over year. He also forecasts Tesla will make 96,000 cars in California and 74,000 cars in China during the quarter. “Consensus [estimate] looks mostly reasonable,” wrote Spak in a Thursday report. “We do look for updates to see how the semi shortage is impacting Tesla—as it has the rest of the industry.” He sees some additional downside risk to estimates, especially for second-quarter numbers, because of chips.\nSpak rates Tesla stock Hold and has a $725 price target for shares.\nIn the case of Tesla stock, the chip shortage has taken a back seat to rising interest rates. Rising rateshit growth stocksin two main ways. For starters, it makes growth more expensive to finance. NIO isn’t profitable yet. High-growth companies generate most of their cash flow far in the future. That cash flow is worth a little less, relatively speaking, when investors can earn higher interest rates on their cash today.\nTesla stock is down roughly 10% year to date after rising more than 740% in 2020. Shares are down 0.9% in early Friday trading, at $634.40. The S&P 500is up about 0.7%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":407,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":351924569,"gmtCreate":1616555754951,"gmtModify":1634525219733,"author":{"id":"3577335802381292","authorId":"3577335802381292","name":"joeyong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/966871dcabda9a3a4a0d39efe600dd1c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577335802381292","authorIdStr":"3577335802381292"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"crazy&nbsp;","listText":"crazy&nbsp;","text":"crazy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/351924569","repostId":"2121430530","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":203,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":801177069,"gmtCreate":1627493313751,"gmtModify":1631890602220,"author":{"id":"3577335802381292","authorId":"3577335802381292","name":"joeyong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/966871dcabda9a3a4a0d39efe600dd1c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577335802381292","authorIdStr":"3577335802381292"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"like please&nbsp;","listText":"like please&nbsp;","text":"like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":12,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/801177069","repostId":"1179923360","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3025,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181294352,"gmtCreate":1623395022576,"gmtModify":1634033797529,"author":{"id":"3577335802381292","authorId":"3577335802381292","name":"joeyong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/966871dcabda9a3a4a0d39efe600dd1c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577335802381292","authorIdStr":"3577335802381292"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"like and comment pls&nbsp;","listText":"like and comment pls&nbsp;","text":"like and comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181294352","repostId":"1153926665","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":256,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":116203380,"gmtCreate":1622800288240,"gmtModify":1634097889171,"author":{"id":"3577335802381292","authorId":"3577335802381292","name":"joeyong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/966871dcabda9a3a4a0d39efe600dd1c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577335802381292","authorIdStr":"3577335802381292"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"like and comment pls&nbsp;","listText":"like and comment pls&nbsp;","text":"like and comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/116203380","repostId":"1122373606","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122373606","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622793373,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122373606?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-04 15:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider<blockquote>10年后苹果股票会在哪里？要考虑什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122373606","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nApple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite different.</li>  <li>Apple has seen its growth slow down over the last decade, and it will likely not be a growth monster in the coming years, either.</li>  <li>Shares have ample long-term upside, but investors should consider the current valuation before jumping to decisions.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f2ea192ed76d9772c2c6a820098faf5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by Paopano/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果在过去十年中是一项伟大的投资，但下一个十年可能会大不相同。</li><li>苹果的增长在过去十年中有所放缓，未来几年也可能不会成为增长怪物。</li><li>股价具有充足的长期上涨空间，但投资者在做出决定之前应考虑当前的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Paopano/iStock社论，来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple (AAPL) has been one of the best investments one could have made over the last decade. Over the next decade, its growth may not be the same, however. Yet, thanks to massive shareholder return programs and a move towards services, Apple's stock will likely still be significantly higher a decade from now - even though the current valuation is rather high.</p><p><blockquote>苹果（AAPL）是过去十年中最好的投资之一。然而，在接下来的十年里，它的增长可能会有所不同。然而，由于大规模的股东回报计划和向服务业的转变，苹果的股价在十年后仍可能大幅上涨——尽管目前的估值相当高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Over the last decade, Apple Inc. has been a great investment:</p><p><blockquote>在过去十年中，苹果公司一直是一项伟大的投资：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d29aa34bdbc5bab7d0730a4095954e6\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares have returned 900% in those ten years, before dividends, for a compounded annual return of approximately 26%, easily trouncing the returns of the broad market during that time frame. Importantly, shares have risen a lot more than the company's market capitalization, which grew by only 550% over the last decade. The difference can be explained by the company's large share repurchase programs, which have lowered the share count drastically over the last decade. The last decade, of course, was a highly successful period for Apple on a business basis, as the company benefited from the rise of smartphones while also having success with new products such as its Watch and tablets, which Apple more or less introduced as a new product category. Right now, shares trade for $125, up 57% over the last twelve months, but down 6% in 2021 to date. Following strong gains during 2020, shares seem to be in a consolidation pattern for now, which is not too much of a surprise, as Apple's valuation had expanded a lot in the recent past, and it seems that the company's business growth has to catch up to the recent share price increases now. The current consensus price target is $156, which implies an upside potential of 25%. Since there are no signs of shares leaving their current trading range right now, I personally do not think that Apple will breach $150 in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>在这十年中，扣除股息前，股票回报率为900%，复合年回报率约为26%，轻松击败了同期大盘的回报率。重要的是，该公司股价的涨幅远远超过了该公司的市值，而该公司的市值在过去十年中仅增长了550%。这种差异可以用该公司的大规模股票回购计划来解释，该计划在过去十年中大幅减少了股票数量。当然，过去十年对苹果来说是一个商业上非常成功的时期，因为该公司受益于智能手机的兴起，同时也在手表和平板电脑等新产品上取得了成功，苹果或多或少地将其作为一个新产品类别推出。目前，股价为125美元，过去12个月上涨57%，但2021年迄今下跌6%。继2020年强劲上涨之后，股价目前似乎处于盘整格局，这并不令人意外，因为苹果的估值最近已经扩大了很多，而且该公司的业务增长似乎必须赶上最近的股价上涨。目前的一致目标价为156美元，这意味着25%的上涨潜力。由于目前没有迹象表明股价会离开当前的交易区间，我个人认为苹果短期内不会突破150美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years</b></p><p><blockquote><b>10年后苹果股票会在哪里</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple's stock price in 2031 is, of course, nothing that can be forecasted with any precision. As history has shown, again and again, it is not even possible to forecast share prices precisely over a much shorter period of time. It is, however, possible to craft scenarios to see where share prices could be in the future under certain conditions, to get a feel for what might be a reasonable expectation for the future.</p><p><blockquote>当然，苹果2031年的股价是无法准确预测的。正如历史一次又一次地表明的那样，甚至不可能在更短的时间内准确预测股价。然而，可以设计情景来了解在某些条件下未来股价的走势，从而了解对未来的合理预期。</blockquote></p><p> To craft one such scenario, we have to consider Apple's business growth, Apple's shareholder return program, and the valuation multiple that shares might trade at in the future.</p><p><blockquote>为了构建这样的场景，我们必须考虑苹果的业务增长、苹果的股东回报计划以及股票未来可能交易的估值倍数。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's business growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的业务增长</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple Inc. has seen years of stronger growth and years of weaker growth in the past. This mostly can be explained by factors such as new product introductions, e.g. Watch or iPad, and by the strength of the respective current iPhone models, which see varying demand depending on the year. Other factors, such as economic growth or trade issues, play a role as well.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司过去曾经历过多年的强劲增长和多年的疲软增长。这主要可以用新产品推出等因素来解释，例如。手表或iPad，以及各自当前iPhone型号的强度，这些型号的需求因年份而异。其他因素，如经济增长或贸易问题，也发挥了作用。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5b8bd8ef6cdaa13850c1380e870554c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Overall, revenues have grown by 154% over the last decade, but as we see in the above chart, revenue growth has been relatively uneven. During the early 2010s, Apple generated massive growth on the back of the iPhones \"road to victory\", whereas revenue growth declined to a much slower pace in the following years. There were even some years during which revenues declined on a year-over-year basis, such as 2016. The average annual revenue growth pace was 10% over the last decade, but when we factor in that this was lifted up by the very strong growth in 2011 and 2012, it may not be too reasonable to assume that Apple will grow by 10% a year in the future, too. Investors should also consider that maintaining a high growth rate becomes ever more difficult the larger a company gets. This does, however, not mean that Apple's revenue growth will slow down to zero.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，过去十年收入增长了154%，但正如我们在上图中看到的，收入增长相对不均衡。2010年代初，苹果凭借iPhone的“胜利之路”实现了巨大增长，而在接下来的几年里，收入增长速度放缓。甚至有一些年份的收入同比下降，例如2016年。过去十年的平均年收入增长率为10%，但当我们考虑到2011年和2012年的强劲增长推动了这一增长率时，假设苹果将增长10%可能不太合理。未来一年也是如此。投资者还应该考虑到，公司规模越大，保持高增长率就变得越困难。然而，这并不意味着苹果的收入增长将放缓至零。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> On the back of price increases for its products and the potential for market share gains in&nbsp;high-growth countries such as China, where more and more people will be able to buy Apple's higher-priced products, it seems reasonable to assume that Apple will generate at least some growth from its core businesses. Add in growth in the services segment - people use their phones more and more, which should lead to higher app spending - and consider the potential for new product launches (although I assume none will be as massive as the iPhone), and Apple should be able to grow its business at a solid pace. I personally assume that a 5%-7% revenue growth rate could be a realistic estimate for the coming years, although some readers will of course have different opinions.</p><p><blockquote>在其产品价格上涨以及中国等高增长国家市场份额增长的潜力（越来越多的人将能够购买苹果价格较高的产品）的背景下，似乎有理由假设苹果将至少从其核心业务中产生一些增长。再加上服务领域的增长——人们越来越多地使用手机，这应该会导致更高的应用支出——并考虑新产品发布的潜力（尽管我认为没有一款产品会像iPhone那样庞大），苹果应该能够以稳健的速度发展其业务。我个人认为5%-7%的收入增长率可能是未来几年的现实估计，尽管一些读者当然会有不同的意见。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's shareholder returns</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的股东回报</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple has lowered its share count massively in the past, as shown above, and it is, I believe, reasonable to assume that the same will happen going forward. Over the last decade, Apple bought back 36% of its shares. If the same were to happen over the next decade, each remaining share's portion of the company's value would rise by 56%, or 4.6% annualized. Due to the fact that Apple's current valuation is significantly higher than its historic valuation, buybacks could be less impactful in the future, though. Apple has, for example, only reduced its share count by 2.6% over the last year.</p><p><blockquote>如上所示，苹果过去曾大幅减少其股票数量，我相信，有理由假设未来也会发生同样的情况。过去十年，苹果回购了36%的股份。如果未来十年发生同样的情况，每股剩余股票在公司价值中的份额将上涨56%，即年化4.6%。不过，由于苹果目前的估值明显高于其历史估值，回购在未来的影响可能会较小。例如，苹果去年的股票数量仅减少了2.6%。</blockquote></p><p> This is why I believe that the share count will not decline by another 36% over the coming decade. When we adjust that downward to 25%, this would result in a ~3% annual tailwind for Apple's growth when we look at per-share metrics, which are the deciding factor for Apple's share price growth. Combined with my 5%-7% business growth estimate, I thus assume that Apple will grow by 8%-10% on a per-share basis in the long term.</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么我相信未来十年股票数量不会再下降36%。当我们将其向下调整至25%时，当我们考虑每股指标时，这将为苹果的增长带来约3%的年度推动力，而每股指标是苹果股价增长的决定性因素。结合我5%-7%的业务增长预测，我因此假设苹果的每股长期增长将达到8%-10%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's future valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的未来估值</b></blockquote></p><p> AAPL has been valued in a very wide range in the past, seeing its shares trade for very low multiples at some points, whereas investors were willing to pay significantly more at other times:</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司过去的估值范围很广，其股票在某些时候的市盈率非常低，而投资者在其他时候愿意支付更高的价格：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be5cb8bbc04ff0e0a13ee64f6f2bd90a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"470\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares could, five years ago, be bought for a very low 10x net earnings, which naturally was a great time to enter or expand positions. In late 2020, however, shares were trading for as much as 40x the company's net earnings, which seems like a quite high valuation. Right now, AAPL trades at 28x trailing earnings, and at around 24x forward profits. In the above chart, we also see the median earnings multiples over the last 3, 5, 7, and 10 years. It is pretty clear that Apple's valuation has expanded over the years, which is why the median values are higher for the shorter \"lookback\" periods. I do not believe that AAPL will trade at the 15.5x net earnings that it has traded at, on average, over the last decade, as this seems like a rather low valuation for a quality company like Apple with a strong brand, massive scale, great margins, and a fortress balance sheet. On the other hand, I also don't believe that Apple will trade at a 24-28x earnings multiple forever - for a company that generates solid but unspectacular business growth in the mid-single-digits, that seems quite expensive. This is especially true when we consider that interest rates will likely be higher a decade from now, which should pressure valuations for all equities, all else equal. I thus believe that a valuation of around 20x net earnings could be a reasonable estimate for 2031, which would be more or less in line with the 3-year median earnings multiple.</p><p><blockquote>五年前，可以以非常低的10倍净利润购买股票，这自然是进入或扩大头寸的好时机。然而，2020年底，该公司的股价高达该公司净利润的40倍，这似乎是一个相当高的估值。目前，AAPL的往绩市盈率为28倍，远期利润约为24倍。在上图中，我们还看到了过去3年、5年、7年和10年的市盈率中位数。很明显，苹果的估值多年来一直在扩大，这就是为什么在较短的“回顾”期内中值较高。我不认为AAPL的市盈率会达到过去十年平均市盈率的15.5倍，因为对于像苹果这样拥有强大品牌、庞大规模的优质公司来说，这似乎是一个相当低的估值。、巨大的利润和堡垒般的资产负债表。另一方面，我也不相信苹果的市盈率会永远保持在24-28倍——对于一家业务增长稳健但不引人注目的中个位数的公司来说，这似乎相当昂贵。当我们考虑到十年后利率可能会更高时，尤其如此，在其他条件相同的情况下，这应该会给所有股票的估值带来压力。因此，我认为2031年净利润20倍左右的估值可能是合理的估计，这或多或少与3年市盈率中位数一致。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is AAPL A Buy Or Sell Now</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AAPL现在是买入还是卖出</b></blockquote></p><p> Starting our calculation with an EPS estimate of $5.15 for 2021 and assuming that this will grow by 7%-10% a year through 2031, we reach an EPS range of $10.10 to $13.40. Putting a 20x earnings multiple on that leads to a target price of around $200-$270/share. At the midpoint of around $235, shares would thus see gains of around 90% from the current level, or around 6.5% annualized. That surely is not a bad return, and when we add in the dividend, we would get to an annualized return of roughly 7%. This is, on the other hand, also not an outrageously great return, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>从2021年每股收益估计为5.15美元开始计算，并假设到2031年每年增长7%-10%，我们的每股收益范围为10.10美元至13.40美元。将市盈率定为20倍，目标价约为每股200-270美元。因此，在235美元左右的中点，股价将较当前水平上涨约90%，年化涨幅约为6.5%。这肯定是一个不错的回报，当我们加上股息时，我们将获得大约7%的年化回报率。另一方面，我相信这也不是一个惊人的回报。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> AAPL has, I believe, significant upside potential over the next decade, but that should not be a large surprise - many companies will see significant growth over a time span this long. I personally am not too excited about a 7% expected long-term return. When we consider that shares do have considerable downside risk in the next 1-3 years if Apple's valuation declines, e.g. due to rising interest rates, it may be a better choice to stay on the sidelines for now. Long-term investors will likely not do badly when they buy shares at current levels, but they will likely also not do great. For now, I'd rate Apple a hold, and a potential buy if its valuation comes closer to the longer-term average. Those that are more optimistic about new product launches may disagree and favor buying here, but it could turn out that waiting for a better opportunity is the best choice here.</p><p><blockquote>我相信，苹果公司在未来十年具有巨大的上涨潜力，但这并不令人意外——许多公司将在这么长的时间内实现显着增长。我个人对7%的预期长期回报率不太兴奋。当我们考虑到，如果苹果的估值下降，例如由于利率上升，股价在未来1-3年内确实存在相当大的下行风险，目前保持观望可能是更好的选择。长期投资者在当前水平购买股票时可能不会表现不佳，但也可能不会表现出色。目前，我对苹果的评级为持有，如果其估值接近长期平均水平，则可能买入。那些对新产品发布更乐观的人可能不同意并倾向于在这里购买，但事实证明，等待更好的机会是这里的最佳选择。</blockquote></p><p> Summing it up, I'd say shares do have significant upside potential over the next decade, but the upside potential is not large enough to make me buy shares at current, elevated, valuations.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，我想说，该股在未来十年确实有巨大的上涨潜力，但上涨潜力还不足以让我以当前较高的估值购买股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider<blockquote>10年后苹果股票会在哪里？要考虑什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider<blockquote>10年后苹果股票会在哪里？要考虑什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-04 15:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite different.</li>  <li>Apple has seen its growth slow down over the last decade, and it will likely not be a growth monster in the coming years, either.</li>  <li>Shares have ample long-term upside, but investors should consider the current valuation before jumping to decisions.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f2ea192ed76d9772c2c6a820098faf5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by Paopano/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果在过去十年中是一项伟大的投资，但下一个十年可能会大不相同。</li><li>苹果的增长在过去十年中有所放缓，未来几年也可能不会成为增长怪物。</li><li>股价具有充足的长期上涨空间，但投资者在做出决定之前应考虑当前的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Paopano/iStock社论，来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple (AAPL) has been one of the best investments one could have made over the last decade. Over the next decade, its growth may not be the same, however. Yet, thanks to massive shareholder return programs and a move towards services, Apple's stock will likely still be significantly higher a decade from now - even though the current valuation is rather high.</p><p><blockquote>苹果（AAPL）是过去十年中最好的投资之一。然而，在接下来的十年里，它的增长可能会有所不同。然而，由于大规模的股东回报计划和向服务业的转变，苹果的股价在十年后仍可能大幅上涨——尽管目前的估值相当高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Over the last decade, Apple Inc. has been a great investment:</p><p><blockquote>在过去十年中，苹果公司一直是一项伟大的投资：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d29aa34bdbc5bab7d0730a4095954e6\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares have returned 900% in those ten years, before dividends, for a compounded annual return of approximately 26%, easily trouncing the returns of the broad market during that time frame. Importantly, shares have risen a lot more than the company's market capitalization, which grew by only 550% over the last decade. The difference can be explained by the company's large share repurchase programs, which have lowered the share count drastically over the last decade. The last decade, of course, was a highly successful period for Apple on a business basis, as the company benefited from the rise of smartphones while also having success with new products such as its Watch and tablets, which Apple more or less introduced as a new product category. Right now, shares trade for $125, up 57% over the last twelve months, but down 6% in 2021 to date. Following strong gains during 2020, shares seem to be in a consolidation pattern for now, which is not too much of a surprise, as Apple's valuation had expanded a lot in the recent past, and it seems that the company's business growth has to catch up to the recent share price increases now. The current consensus price target is $156, which implies an upside potential of 25%. Since there are no signs of shares leaving their current trading range right now, I personally do not think that Apple will breach $150 in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>在这十年中，扣除股息前，股票回报率为900%，复合年回报率约为26%，轻松击败了同期大盘的回报率。重要的是，该公司股价的涨幅远远超过了该公司的市值，而该公司的市值在过去十年中仅增长了550%。这种差异可以用该公司的大规模股票回购计划来解释，该计划在过去十年中大幅减少了股票数量。当然，过去十年对苹果来说是一个商业上非常成功的时期，因为该公司受益于智能手机的兴起，同时也在手表和平板电脑等新产品上取得了成功，苹果或多或少地将其作为一个新产品类别推出。目前，股价为125美元，过去12个月上涨57%，但2021年迄今下跌6%。继2020年强劲上涨之后，股价目前似乎处于盘整格局，这并不令人意外，因为苹果的估值最近已经扩大了很多，而且该公司的业务增长似乎必须赶上最近的股价上涨。目前的一致目标价为156美元，这意味着25%的上涨潜力。由于目前没有迹象表明股价会离开当前的交易区间，我个人认为苹果短期内不会突破150美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years</b></p><p><blockquote><b>10年后苹果股票会在哪里</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple's stock price in 2031 is, of course, nothing that can be forecasted with any precision. As history has shown, again and again, it is not even possible to forecast share prices precisely over a much shorter period of time. It is, however, possible to craft scenarios to see where share prices could be in the future under certain conditions, to get a feel for what might be a reasonable expectation for the future.</p><p><blockquote>当然，苹果2031年的股价是无法准确预测的。正如历史一次又一次地表明的那样，甚至不可能在更短的时间内准确预测股价。然而，可以设计情景来了解在某些条件下未来股价的走势，从而了解对未来的合理预期。</blockquote></p><p> To craft one such scenario, we have to consider Apple's business growth, Apple's shareholder return program, and the valuation multiple that shares might trade at in the future.</p><p><blockquote>为了构建这样的场景，我们必须考虑苹果的业务增长、苹果的股东回报计划以及股票未来可能交易的估值倍数。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's business growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的业务增长</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple Inc. has seen years of stronger growth and years of weaker growth in the past. This mostly can be explained by factors such as new product introductions, e.g. Watch or iPad, and by the strength of the respective current iPhone models, which see varying demand depending on the year. Other factors, such as economic growth or trade issues, play a role as well.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司过去曾经历过多年的强劲增长和多年的疲软增长。这主要可以用新产品推出等因素来解释，例如。手表或iPad，以及各自当前iPhone型号的强度，这些型号的需求因年份而异。其他因素，如经济增长或贸易问题，也发挥了作用。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5b8bd8ef6cdaa13850c1380e870554c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Overall, revenues have grown by 154% over the last decade, but as we see in the above chart, revenue growth has been relatively uneven. During the early 2010s, Apple generated massive growth on the back of the iPhones \"road to victory\", whereas revenue growth declined to a much slower pace in the following years. There were even some years during which revenues declined on a year-over-year basis, such as 2016. The average annual revenue growth pace was 10% over the last decade, but when we factor in that this was lifted up by the very strong growth in 2011 and 2012, it may not be too reasonable to assume that Apple will grow by 10% a year in the future, too. Investors should also consider that maintaining a high growth rate becomes ever more difficult the larger a company gets. This does, however, not mean that Apple's revenue growth will slow down to zero.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，过去十年收入增长了154%，但正如我们在上图中看到的，收入增长相对不均衡。2010年代初，苹果凭借iPhone的“胜利之路”实现了巨大增长，而在接下来的几年里，收入增长速度放缓。甚至有一些年份的收入同比下降，例如2016年。过去十年的平均年收入增长率为10%，但当我们考虑到2011年和2012年的强劲增长推动了这一增长率时，假设苹果将增长10%可能不太合理。未来一年也是如此。投资者还应该考虑到，公司规模越大，保持高增长率就变得越困难。然而，这并不意味着苹果的收入增长将放缓至零。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> On the back of price increases for its products and the potential for market share gains in&nbsp;high-growth countries such as China, where more and more people will be able to buy Apple's higher-priced products, it seems reasonable to assume that Apple will generate at least some growth from its core businesses. Add in growth in the services segment - people use their phones more and more, which should lead to higher app spending - and consider the potential for new product launches (although I assume none will be as massive as the iPhone), and Apple should be able to grow its business at a solid pace. I personally assume that a 5%-7% revenue growth rate could be a realistic estimate for the coming years, although some readers will of course have different opinions.</p><p><blockquote>在其产品价格上涨以及中国等高增长国家市场份额增长的潜力（越来越多的人将能够购买苹果价格较高的产品）的背景下，似乎有理由假设苹果将至少从其核心业务中产生一些增长。再加上服务领域的增长——人们越来越多地使用手机，这应该会导致更高的应用支出——并考虑新产品发布的潜力（尽管我认为没有一款产品会像iPhone那样庞大），苹果应该能够以稳健的速度发展其业务。我个人认为5%-7%的收入增长率可能是未来几年的现实估计，尽管一些读者当然会有不同的意见。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's shareholder returns</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的股东回报</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple has lowered its share count massively in the past, as shown above, and it is, I believe, reasonable to assume that the same will happen going forward. Over the last decade, Apple bought back 36% of its shares. If the same were to happen over the next decade, each remaining share's portion of the company's value would rise by 56%, or 4.6% annualized. Due to the fact that Apple's current valuation is significantly higher than its historic valuation, buybacks could be less impactful in the future, though. Apple has, for example, only reduced its share count by 2.6% over the last year.</p><p><blockquote>如上所示，苹果过去曾大幅减少其股票数量，我相信，有理由假设未来也会发生同样的情况。过去十年，苹果回购了36%的股份。如果未来十年发生同样的情况，每股剩余股票在公司价值中的份额将上涨56%，即年化4.6%。不过，由于苹果目前的估值明显高于其历史估值，回购在未来的影响可能会较小。例如，苹果去年的股票数量仅减少了2.6%。</blockquote></p><p> This is why I believe that the share count will not decline by another 36% over the coming decade. When we adjust that downward to 25%, this would result in a ~3% annual tailwind for Apple's growth when we look at per-share metrics, which are the deciding factor for Apple's share price growth. Combined with my 5%-7% business growth estimate, I thus assume that Apple will grow by 8%-10% on a per-share basis in the long term.</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么我相信未来十年股票数量不会再下降36%。当我们将其向下调整至25%时，当我们考虑每股指标时，这将为苹果的增长带来约3%的年度推动力，而每股指标是苹果股价增长的决定性因素。结合我5%-7%的业务增长预测，我因此假设苹果的每股长期增长将达到8%-10%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's future valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的未来估值</b></blockquote></p><p> AAPL has been valued in a very wide range in the past, seeing its shares trade for very low multiples at some points, whereas investors were willing to pay significantly more at other times:</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司过去的估值范围很广，其股票在某些时候的市盈率非常低，而投资者在其他时候愿意支付更高的价格：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be5cb8bbc04ff0e0a13ee64f6f2bd90a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"470\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares could, five years ago, be bought for a very low 10x net earnings, which naturally was a great time to enter or expand positions. In late 2020, however, shares were trading for as much as 40x the company's net earnings, which seems like a quite high valuation. Right now, AAPL trades at 28x trailing earnings, and at around 24x forward profits. In the above chart, we also see the median earnings multiples over the last 3, 5, 7, and 10 years. It is pretty clear that Apple's valuation has expanded over the years, which is why the median values are higher for the shorter \"lookback\" periods. I do not believe that AAPL will trade at the 15.5x net earnings that it has traded at, on average, over the last decade, as this seems like a rather low valuation for a quality company like Apple with a strong brand, massive scale, great margins, and a fortress balance sheet. On the other hand, I also don't believe that Apple will trade at a 24-28x earnings multiple forever - for a company that generates solid but unspectacular business growth in the mid-single-digits, that seems quite expensive. This is especially true when we consider that interest rates will likely be higher a decade from now, which should pressure valuations for all equities, all else equal. I thus believe that a valuation of around 20x net earnings could be a reasonable estimate for 2031, which would be more or less in line with the 3-year median earnings multiple.</p><p><blockquote>五年前，可以以非常低的10倍净利润购买股票，这自然是进入或扩大头寸的好时机。然而，2020年底，该公司的股价高达该公司净利润的40倍，这似乎是一个相当高的估值。目前，AAPL的往绩市盈率为28倍，远期利润约为24倍。在上图中，我们还看到了过去3年、5年、7年和10年的市盈率中位数。很明显，苹果的估值多年来一直在扩大，这就是为什么在较短的“回顾”期内中值较高。我不认为AAPL的市盈率会达到过去十年平均市盈率的15.5倍，因为对于像苹果这样拥有强大品牌、庞大规模的优质公司来说，这似乎是一个相当低的估值。、巨大的利润和堡垒般的资产负债表。另一方面，我也不相信苹果的市盈率会永远保持在24-28倍——对于一家业务增长稳健但不引人注目的中个位数的公司来说，这似乎相当昂贵。当我们考虑到十年后利率可能会更高时，尤其如此，在其他条件相同的情况下，这应该会给所有股票的估值带来压力。因此，我认为2031年净利润20倍左右的估值可能是合理的估计，这或多或少与3年市盈率中位数一致。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is AAPL A Buy Or Sell Now</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AAPL现在是买入还是卖出</b></blockquote></p><p> Starting our calculation with an EPS estimate of $5.15 for 2021 and assuming that this will grow by 7%-10% a year through 2031, we reach an EPS range of $10.10 to $13.40. Putting a 20x earnings multiple on that leads to a target price of around $200-$270/share. At the midpoint of around $235, shares would thus see gains of around 90% from the current level, or around 6.5% annualized. That surely is not a bad return, and when we add in the dividend, we would get to an annualized return of roughly 7%. This is, on the other hand, also not an outrageously great return, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>从2021年每股收益估计为5.15美元开始计算，并假设到2031年每年增长7%-10%，我们的每股收益范围为10.10美元至13.40美元。将市盈率定为20倍，目标价约为每股200-270美元。因此，在235美元左右的中点，股价将较当前水平上涨约90%，年化涨幅约为6.5%。这肯定是一个不错的回报，当我们加上股息时，我们将获得大约7%的年化回报率。另一方面，我相信这也不是一个惊人的回报。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> AAPL has, I believe, significant upside potential over the next decade, but that should not be a large surprise - many companies will see significant growth over a time span this long. I personally am not too excited about a 7% expected long-term return. When we consider that shares do have considerable downside risk in the next 1-3 years if Apple's valuation declines, e.g. due to rising interest rates, it may be a better choice to stay on the sidelines for now. Long-term investors will likely not do badly when they buy shares at current levels, but they will likely also not do great. For now, I'd rate Apple a hold, and a potential buy if its valuation comes closer to the longer-term average. Those that are more optimistic about new product launches may disagree and favor buying here, but it could turn out that waiting for a better opportunity is the best choice here.</p><p><blockquote>我相信，苹果公司在未来十年具有巨大的上涨潜力，但这并不令人意外——许多公司将在这么长的时间内实现显着增长。我个人对7%的预期长期回报率不太兴奋。当我们考虑到，如果苹果的估值下降，例如由于利率上升，股价在未来1-3年内确实存在相当大的下行风险，目前保持观望可能是更好的选择。长期投资者在当前水平购买股票时可能不会表现不佳，但也可能不会表现出色。目前，我对苹果的评级为持有，如果其估值接近长期平均水平，则可能买入。那些对新产品发布更乐观的人可能不同意并倾向于在这里购买，但事实证明，等待更好的机会是这里的最佳选择。</blockquote></p><p> Summing it up, I'd say shares do have significant upside potential over the next decade, but the upside potential is not large enough to make me buy shares at current, elevated, valuations.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，我想说，该股在未来十年确实有巨大的上涨潜力，但上涨潜力还不足以让我以当前较高的估值购买股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432703-apple-stock-in-10-years\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432703-apple-stock-in-10-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122373606","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite different.\nApple has seen its growth slow down over the last decade, and it will likely not be a growth monster in the coming years, either.\nShares have ample long-term upside, but investors should consider the current valuation before jumping to decisions.\n\nPhoto by Paopano/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nApple (AAPL) has been one of the best investments one could have made over the last decade. Over the next decade, its growth may not be the same, however. Yet, thanks to massive shareholder return programs and a move towards services, Apple's stock will likely still be significantly higher a decade from now - even though the current valuation is rather high.\nApple Stock Price\nOver the last decade, Apple Inc. has been a great investment:\nData by YCharts\nShares have returned 900% in those ten years, before dividends, for a compounded annual return of approximately 26%, easily trouncing the returns of the broad market during that time frame. Importantly, shares have risen a lot more than the company's market capitalization, which grew by only 550% over the last decade. The difference can be explained by the company's large share repurchase programs, which have lowered the share count drastically over the last decade. The last decade, of course, was a highly successful period for Apple on a business basis, as the company benefited from the rise of smartphones while also having success with new products such as its Watch and tablets, which Apple more or less introduced as a new product category. Right now, shares trade for $125, up 57% over the last twelve months, but down 6% in 2021 to date. Following strong gains during 2020, shares seem to be in a consolidation pattern for now, which is not too much of a surprise, as Apple's valuation had expanded a lot in the recent past, and it seems that the company's business growth has to catch up to the recent share price increases now. The current consensus price target is $156, which implies an upside potential of 25%. Since there are no signs of shares leaving their current trading range right now, I personally do not think that Apple will breach $150 in the near term.\nWhere Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years\nApple's stock price in 2031 is, of course, nothing that can be forecasted with any precision. As history has shown, again and again, it is not even possible to forecast share prices precisely over a much shorter period of time. It is, however, possible to craft scenarios to see where share prices could be in the future under certain conditions, to get a feel for what might be a reasonable expectation for the future.\nTo craft one such scenario, we have to consider Apple's business growth, Apple's shareholder return program, and the valuation multiple that shares might trade at in the future.\nApple's business growth\nApple Inc. has seen years of stronger growth and years of weaker growth in the past. This mostly can be explained by factors such as new product introductions, e.g. Watch or iPad, and by the strength of the respective current iPhone models, which see varying demand depending on the year. Other factors, such as economic growth or trade issues, play a role as well.\nData by YCharts\nOverall, revenues have grown by 154% over the last decade, but as we see in the above chart, revenue growth has been relatively uneven. During the early 2010s, Apple generated massive growth on the back of the iPhones \"road to victory\", whereas revenue growth declined to a much slower pace in the following years. There were even some years during which revenues declined on a year-over-year basis, such as 2016. The average annual revenue growth pace was 10% over the last decade, but when we factor in that this was lifted up by the very strong growth in 2011 and 2012, it may not be too reasonable to assume that Apple will grow by 10% a year in the future, too. Investors should also consider that maintaining a high growth rate becomes ever more difficult the larger a company gets. This does, however, not mean that Apple's revenue growth will slow down to zero.\nOn the back of price increases for its products and the potential for market share gains in high-growth countries such as China, where more and more people will be able to buy Apple's higher-priced products, it seems reasonable to assume that Apple will generate at least some growth from its core businesses. Add in growth in the services segment - people use their phones more and more, which should lead to higher app spending - and consider the potential for new product launches (although I assume none will be as massive as the iPhone), and Apple should be able to grow its business at a solid pace. I personally assume that a 5%-7% revenue growth rate could be a realistic estimate for the coming years, although some readers will of course have different opinions.\nApple's shareholder returns\nApple has lowered its share count massively in the past, as shown above, and it is, I believe, reasonable to assume that the same will happen going forward. Over the last decade, Apple bought back 36% of its shares. If the same were to happen over the next decade, each remaining share's portion of the company's value would rise by 56%, or 4.6% annualized. Due to the fact that Apple's current valuation is significantly higher than its historic valuation, buybacks could be less impactful in the future, though. Apple has, for example, only reduced its share count by 2.6% over the last year.\nThis is why I believe that the share count will not decline by another 36% over the coming decade. When we adjust that downward to 25%, this would result in a ~3% annual tailwind for Apple's growth when we look at per-share metrics, which are the deciding factor for Apple's share price growth. Combined with my 5%-7% business growth estimate, I thus assume that Apple will grow by 8%-10% on a per-share basis in the long term.\nApple's future valuation\nAAPL has been valued in a very wide range in the past, seeing its shares trade for very low multiples at some points, whereas investors were willing to pay significantly more at other times:\nData by YCharts\nShares could, five years ago, be bought for a very low 10x net earnings, which naturally was a great time to enter or expand positions. In late 2020, however, shares were trading for as much as 40x the company's net earnings, which seems like a quite high valuation. Right now, AAPL trades at 28x trailing earnings, and at around 24x forward profits. In the above chart, we also see the median earnings multiples over the last 3, 5, 7, and 10 years. It is pretty clear that Apple's valuation has expanded over the years, which is why the median values are higher for the shorter \"lookback\" periods. I do not believe that AAPL will trade at the 15.5x net earnings that it has traded at, on average, over the last decade, as this seems like a rather low valuation for a quality company like Apple with a strong brand, massive scale, great margins, and a fortress balance sheet. On the other hand, I also don't believe that Apple will trade at a 24-28x earnings multiple forever - for a company that generates solid but unspectacular business growth in the mid-single-digits, that seems quite expensive. This is especially true when we consider that interest rates will likely be higher a decade from now, which should pressure valuations for all equities, all else equal. I thus believe that a valuation of around 20x net earnings could be a reasonable estimate for 2031, which would be more or less in line with the 3-year median earnings multiple.\nIs AAPL A Buy Or Sell Now\nStarting our calculation with an EPS estimate of $5.15 for 2021 and assuming that this will grow by 7%-10% a year through 2031, we reach an EPS range of $10.10 to $13.40. Putting a 20x earnings multiple on that leads to a target price of around $200-$270/share. At the midpoint of around $235, shares would thus see gains of around 90% from the current level, or around 6.5% annualized. That surely is not a bad return, and when we add in the dividend, we would get to an annualized return of roughly 7%. This is, on the other hand, also not an outrageously great return, I believe.\nAAPL has, I believe, significant upside potential over the next decade, but that should not be a large surprise - many companies will see significant growth over a time span this long. I personally am not too excited about a 7% expected long-term return. When we consider that shares do have considerable downside risk in the next 1-3 years if Apple's valuation declines, e.g. due to rising interest rates, it may be a better choice to stay on the sidelines for now. Long-term investors will likely not do badly when they buy shares at current levels, but they will likely also not do great. For now, I'd rate Apple a hold, and a potential buy if its valuation comes closer to the longer-term average. Those that are more optimistic about new product launches may disagree and favor buying here, but it could turn out that waiting for a better opportunity is the best choice here.\nSumming it up, I'd say shares do have significant upside potential over the next decade, but the upside potential is not large enough to make me buy shares at current, elevated, valuations.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":341,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":137990476,"gmtCreate":1622278713595,"gmtModify":1634102544546,"author":{"id":"3577335802381292","authorId":"3577335802381292","name":"joeyong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/966871dcabda9a3a4a0d39efe600dd1c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577335802381292","authorIdStr":"3577335802381292"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"like and comment pls&nbsp;","listText":"like and comment pls&nbsp;","text":"like and comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/137990476","repostId":"2138948877","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":359,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":344880541,"gmtCreate":1618396492683,"gmtModify":1634293248124,"author":{"id":"3577335802381292","authorId":"3577335802381292","name":"joeyong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/966871dcabda9a3a4a0d39efe600dd1c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577335802381292","authorIdStr":"3577335802381292"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"like and comment please!&nbsp;","listText":"like and comment please!&nbsp;","text":"like and comment please!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/344880541","repostId":"2127454000","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":387,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}