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2021-03-22

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Headed For A Collapsing Debt Bubble<blockquote>走向崩溃的债务泡沫</blockquote>

2021-04-15

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2021-04-15

$GameStop(GME)$To the moon

2021-04-09

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2021-03-27

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Zhihu Technology fall on its first day of trading<blockquote>知乎科技上市首日下跌</blockquote>

2021-03-29

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2021-06-02

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S&P 500 dips, as healthcare weighs; Dow ends higher<blockquote>随着医疗保健的压力，标普500下跌；道指收高</blockquote>

2021-04-16

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Intel faces a costly and uncertain road back to glory, analyst warns of 'pain' ahead<blockquote>分析师警告称，英特尔重返荣耀面临代价高昂且不确定的道路，未来将面临“痛苦”</blockquote>

2021-03-19

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How to Hedge Your Portfolio Against a Stock Market Plunge<blockquote>如何对冲您的投资组合免受股市暴跌的影响</blockquote>

2021-04-27

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to my comment&nbsp;","listText":"Reply to my comment&nbsp;","text":"Reply to my comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/113898437","repostId":"1106176005","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1106176005","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622588821,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1106176005?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-02 07:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"S&P 500 dips, as healthcare weighs; Dow ends higher<blockquote>随着医疗保健的压力，标普500下跌；道指收高</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106176005","media":"Reuters","summary":"The S&P 500dipped on Tuesday, with declines in healthcare and tech shares countered by energy and financial gains, as investors weighed the latest U.S. economic data for signs of a rebound and rising inflation.The S&P 500 financial sectorhit a record high, while expected growth in fuel demand boosted oil prices and helped lift the energy sector3.9%, its biggest $one$-day gain in nearly four months. The heavyweight tech sectorfell while the healthcare sectorwas dragged down by a weak profit forec","content":"<p>The S&amp;P 500(.SPX)dipped on Tuesday, with declines in healthcare and tech shares countered by energy and financial gains, as investors weighed the latest U.S. economic data for signs of a rebound and rising inflation.</p><p><blockquote>标普500(.SPX)周二下跌，医疗保健和科技股的下跌被能源和金融股的上涨所抵消，投资者权衡最新的美国经济数据是否有反弹和通胀上升的迹象。</blockquote></p><p>The S&amp;P 500 financial sector(.SPSY)hit a record high, while expected growth in fuel demand boosted oil prices and helped lift the energy sector(.SPNY)3.9%, its biggest <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a>-day gain in nearly four months. The heavyweight tech sector(.SPLRCT)fell while the healthcare sector(.SPXHC)was dragged down by a weak profit forecast from <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABT\">Abbott Laboratories</a>(ABT.N).</p><p><blockquote>标普500金融板块(.SPSY)创历史新高，而燃料需求预期增长提振油价，并帮助提振能源板块(.SPNY)上涨3.9%，为最大<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">一</a>-近四个月来的日涨幅。重量级科技板块(.SPLRCT)下跌，而医疗保健板块(.SPXHC)则受到来自<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABT\">雅培实验室</a>（N部）。</blockquote></p><p>Data showed U.S.manufacturing activity pickedup in May as pent-up demand in a reopening economy boosted orders. But unfinished work piled up because of shortages of raw materials and labor.</p><p><blockquote>数据显示，由于经济重新开放中被压抑的需求提振了订单，美国5月份制造业活动有所回升。但由于原材料和劳动力短缺，未完成的工作堆积起来。</blockquote></p><p>\"People came back from a holiday weekend convinced that the economy is recovering nicely and that any inflation that we might be seeing in labor and other costs is temporary,\" Peter Tuz, president of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCF\">Chase</a> Investment Counsel in Charlottesville, Virginia.</p><p><blockquote>“人们从假期周末回来后确信经济正在良好复苏，我们可能在劳动力和其他成本方面看到的任何通胀都是暂时的，”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCF\">追逐</a>弗吉尼亚州夏洛茨维尔的投资顾问。</blockquote></p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI)rose 45.86 points, or 0.13%, to 34,575.31; the S&amp;P 500(.SPX)lost 2.07 points, or 0.05%, at 4,202.04; and the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a> Composite(.IXIC)dropped 12.26 points, or 0.09%, to 13,736.48.</p><p><blockquote>道琼工业指数(.DJI)涨45.86点，或0.13%，报34,575.31；标普500(.SPX)下跌2.07点，或0.05%，报4,202.04点；和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">纳斯达克</a>综合指数(.IXIC)下跌12.26点，或0.09%，至13,736.48点。</blockquote></p><p>Along with sharp gains for financials and energy, the small-cap Russell 2000(.RUT)rose 1.1% on Tuesday, underscoring strength for segments of the stock market expected to do particularly well in an expanding economy.</p><p><blockquote>随着金融和能源股的大幅上涨，小盘股罗素2000指数(.RUT)周二上涨1.1%，突显了预计在经济扩张中表现尤其出色的股市板块的强势。</blockquote></p><p>While the S&amp;P 500 remains less than 1% of its record high after four straight months of gains, investors are worried about whether rising inflation could hit equity prices.</p><p><blockquote>尽管标普500在连续四个月上涨后仍不到历史高点的1%，但投资者担心通胀上升是否会打击股价。</blockquote></p><p>\"We have supply chain issues, delays, price increases, pricing pressures in general, we have got employers saying they have got difficulty sourcing labor,\" said Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IVZ\">Invesco</a> in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NWY\">New York</a>.</p><p><blockquote>首席全球市场策略师克里斯蒂娜·胡珀(Kristina Hooper)表示：“我们面临供应链问题、延误、价格上涨、总体定价压力，雇主表示他们很难找到劳动力。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IVZ\">景顺</a>在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NWY\">纽约</a>.</blockquote></p><p>\"So this is a microcosm of what we are already hearing about and seeing in the overall economy and it's just a reminder that inflation remains a concern.\"</p><p><blockquote>“因此，这是我们在整体经济中已经听到和看到的情况的一个缩影，它只是提醒人们通货膨胀仍然是一个问题。”</blockquote></p><p>A Wall St. sign is seen near the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYRT\">New York</a> Stock Exchange (NYSE) in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NGD\">New</a> York <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHCO\">City</a>, U.S., May 4, 2021. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo</p><p><blockquote>附近可以看到华尔街的标志<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYRT\">纽约</a>纽约证券交易所<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NGD\">新的</a>约克<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHCO\">城市</a>，美国，2021年5月4日。路透社/Brendan McDermid/资料照片</blockquote></p><p>Stock markets on Friday brushed off a surge inkey inflation readingsfor April following reassurances from Federal Reserve officials that the central bank’s ultra-loose monetary policy would remain in place.</p><p><blockquote>在美联储官员保证央行超宽松货币政策将继续实施后，周五股市没有出现四月份关键通胀数据的飙升。</blockquote></p><p>Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari and Fed Vice Chair for supervision Randal Quarles on Tuesday reiterated the view that higher prices would be transitory.</p><p><blockquote>明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行行长尼尔·卡什卡利和美联储负责监管的副主席兰德尔·夸尔斯周二重申了价格上涨将是暂时的观点。</blockquote></p><p>This week's focus will be on a raft of economic data, culminating with U.S. payrolls due on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>本周的焦点将是大量经济数据，最终将于周五公布的美国就业数据。</blockquote></p><p>Abbott Labs shares fell 9.3% after the company cut itsfull-year 2021 profit forecast, citing expectations for a sharp decline in revenue from its COVID-19 tests as more Americans get vaccinated. Shares of other test makers also fell.</p><p><blockquote>雅培实验室(Abbott Labs)下调2021年全年利润预期，理由是随着越来越多的美国人接种疫苗，预计其COVID-19检测收入将大幅下降，该公司股价下跌9.3%。其他测试制造商的股价也下跌。</blockquote></p><p>Cloudera Inc(CLDR.N)shares jumped 23.9% after private equity firms KKR &amp; Co(KKR.N)and Clayton Dubilier &amp; Rice LLCagreed to take the data analytics firm private.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudera Inc(CLDR.N)在私募股权公司KKR&amp;Co(KKR)之后，股价上涨23.9%。N)和Clayton Dubilier&amp;Rice LLCA同意将这家数据分析公司私有化。</blockquote></p><p>A group of“meme stocks” extended gainsfrom the previous week, with shares of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Entertainment</a> Holdings Inc(AMC.N)up 22.7% after the movie theater chain said it sold $230 million of its stock.</p><p><blockquote>一批“模因股”延续了前一周的涨幅，其中<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC院线</a>控股公司(AMC.N)上涨22.7%，此前这家连锁电影院表示出售了价值2.3亿美元的股票。</blockquote></p><p>Advancing issues outnumbered decliners on the NYSE by a 2.54-to-1 ratio; on <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a>, a 1.79-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所上涨股与下跌股的比例为2.54比1；在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">纳斯达克</a>1.79比1的比率有利于上涨者。</blockquote></p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 73 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 168 new highs and 25 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下73个52周新高，无新低；纳斯达克综合指数录得168个新高和25个新低。</blockquote></p><p>About 10.7 billion shares changed hands in U.S. exchanges, compared with the 10.5 billion daily average over the last 20 sessions.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所约有107亿股易手，而过去20个交易日的日均交易量为105亿股。</blockquote></p><p><b>Here are company's financial statements：</b></p><p><blockquote><b>以下是公司的财务报表：</b></blockquote></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1184181912\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Zoom reports blowout earnings but warns of a coming slowdown</b></a></p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1184181912\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Zoom报告盈利井喷，但警告即将放缓</b></a></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>S&P 500 dips, as healthcare weighs; Dow ends higher<blockquote>随着医疗保健的压力，标普500下跌；道指收高</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS&P 500 dips, as healthcare weighs; Dow ends higher<blockquote>随着医疗保健的压力，标普500下跌；道指收高</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-02 07:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500(.SPX)dipped on Tuesday, with declines in healthcare and tech shares countered by energy and financial gains, as investors weighed the latest U.S. economic data for signs of a rebound and rising inflation.</p><p><blockquote>标普500(.SPX)周二下跌，医疗保健和科技股的下跌被能源和金融股的上涨所抵消，投资者权衡最新的美国经济数据是否有反弹和通胀上升的迹象。</blockquote></p><p>The S&amp;P 500 financial sector(.SPSY)hit a record high, while expected growth in fuel demand boosted oil prices and helped lift the energy sector(.SPNY)3.9%, its biggest <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a>-day gain in nearly four months. The heavyweight tech sector(.SPLRCT)fell while the healthcare sector(.SPXHC)was dragged down by a weak profit forecast from <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABT\">Abbott Laboratories</a>(ABT.N).</p><p><blockquote>标普500金融板块(.SPSY)创历史新高，而燃料需求预期增长提振油价，并帮助提振能源板块(.SPNY)上涨3.9%，为最大<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">一</a>-近四个月来的日涨幅。重量级科技板块(.SPLRCT)下跌，而医疗保健板块(.SPXHC)则受到来自<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABT\">雅培实验室</a>（N部）。</blockquote></p><p>Data showed U.S.manufacturing activity pickedup in May as pent-up demand in a reopening economy boosted orders. But unfinished work piled up because of shortages of raw materials and labor.</p><p><blockquote>数据显示，由于经济重新开放中被压抑的需求提振了订单，美国5月份制造业活动有所回升。但由于原材料和劳动力短缺，未完成的工作堆积起来。</blockquote></p><p>\"People came back from a holiday weekend convinced that the economy is recovering nicely and that any inflation that we might be seeing in labor and other costs is temporary,\" Peter Tuz, president of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCF\">Chase</a> Investment Counsel in Charlottesville, Virginia.</p><p><blockquote>“人们从假期周末回来后确信经济正在良好复苏，我们可能在劳动力和其他成本方面看到的任何通胀都是暂时的，”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCF\">追逐</a>弗吉尼亚州夏洛茨维尔的投资顾问。</blockquote></p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI)rose 45.86 points, or 0.13%, to 34,575.31; the S&amp;P 500(.SPX)lost 2.07 points, or 0.05%, at 4,202.04; and the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a> Composite(.IXIC)dropped 12.26 points, or 0.09%, to 13,736.48.</p><p><blockquote>道琼工业指数(.DJI)涨45.86点，或0.13%，报34,575.31；标普500(.SPX)下跌2.07点，或0.05%，报4,202.04点；和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">纳斯达克</a>综合指数(.IXIC)下跌12.26点，或0.09%，至13,736.48点。</blockquote></p><p>Along with sharp gains for financials and energy, the small-cap Russell 2000(.RUT)rose 1.1% on Tuesday, underscoring strength for segments of the stock market expected to do particularly well in an expanding economy.</p><p><blockquote>随着金融和能源股的大幅上涨，小盘股罗素2000指数(.RUT)周二上涨1.1%，突显了预计在经济扩张中表现尤其出色的股市板块的强势。</blockquote></p><p>While the S&amp;P 500 remains less than 1% of its record high after four straight months of gains, investors are worried about whether rising inflation could hit equity prices.</p><p><blockquote>尽管标普500在连续四个月上涨后仍不到历史高点的1%，但投资者担心通胀上升是否会打击股价。</blockquote></p><p>\"We have supply chain issues, delays, price increases, pricing pressures in general, we have got employers saying they have got difficulty sourcing labor,\" said Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IVZ\">Invesco</a> in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NWY\">New York</a>.</p><p><blockquote>首席全球市场策略师克里斯蒂娜·胡珀(Kristina Hooper)表示：“我们面临供应链问题、延误、价格上涨、总体定价压力，雇主表示他们很难找到劳动力。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IVZ\">景顺</a>在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NWY\">纽约</a>.</blockquote></p><p>\"So this is a microcosm of what we are already hearing about and seeing in the overall economy and it's just a reminder that inflation remains a concern.\"</p><p><blockquote>“因此，这是我们在整体经济中已经听到和看到的情况的一个缩影，它只是提醒人们通货膨胀仍然是一个问题。”</blockquote></p><p>A Wall St. sign is seen near the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYRT\">New York</a> Stock Exchange (NYSE) in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NGD\">New</a> York <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHCO\">City</a>, U.S., May 4, 2021. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo</p><p><blockquote>附近可以看到华尔街的标志<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYRT\">纽约</a>纽约证券交易所<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NGD\">新的</a>约克<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHCO\">城市</a>，美国，2021年5月4日。路透社/Brendan McDermid/资料照片</blockquote></p><p>Stock markets on Friday brushed off a surge inkey inflation readingsfor April following reassurances from Federal Reserve officials that the central bank’s ultra-loose monetary policy would remain in place.</p><p><blockquote>在美联储官员保证央行超宽松货币政策将继续实施后，周五股市没有出现四月份关键通胀数据的飙升。</blockquote></p><p>Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari and Fed Vice Chair for supervision Randal Quarles on Tuesday reiterated the view that higher prices would be transitory.</p><p><blockquote>明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行行长尼尔·卡什卡利和美联储负责监管的副主席兰德尔·夸尔斯周二重申了价格上涨将是暂时的观点。</blockquote></p><p>This week's focus will be on a raft of economic data, culminating with U.S. payrolls due on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>本周的焦点将是大量经济数据，最终将于周五公布的美国就业数据。</blockquote></p><p>Abbott Labs shares fell 9.3% after the company cut itsfull-year 2021 profit forecast, citing expectations for a sharp decline in revenue from its COVID-19 tests as more Americans get vaccinated. Shares of other test makers also fell.</p><p><blockquote>雅培实验室(Abbott Labs)下调2021年全年利润预期，理由是随着越来越多的美国人接种疫苗，预计其COVID-19检测收入将大幅下降，该公司股价下跌9.3%。其他测试制造商的股价也下跌。</blockquote></p><p>Cloudera Inc(CLDR.N)shares jumped 23.9% after private equity firms KKR &amp; Co(KKR.N)and Clayton Dubilier &amp; Rice LLCagreed to take the data analytics firm private.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudera Inc(CLDR.N)在私募股权公司KKR&amp;Co(KKR)之后，股价上涨23.9%。N)和Clayton Dubilier&amp;Rice LLCA同意将这家数据分析公司私有化。</blockquote></p><p>A group of“meme stocks” extended gainsfrom the previous week, with shares of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Entertainment</a> Holdings Inc(AMC.N)up 22.7% after the movie theater chain said it sold $230 million of its stock.</p><p><blockquote>一批“模因股”延续了前一周的涨幅，其中<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC院线</a>控股公司(AMC.N)上涨22.7%，此前这家连锁电影院表示出售了价值2.3亿美元的股票。</blockquote></p><p>Advancing issues outnumbered decliners on the NYSE by a 2.54-to-1 ratio; on <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a>, a 1.79-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所上涨股与下跌股的比例为2.54比1；在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">纳斯达克</a>1.79比1的比率有利于上涨者。</blockquote></p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 73 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 168 new highs and 25 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下73个52周新高，无新低；纳斯达克综合指数录得168个新高和25个新低。</blockquote></p><p>About 10.7 billion shares changed hands in U.S. exchanges, compared with the 10.5 billion daily average over the last 20 sessions.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所约有107亿股易手，而过去20个交易日的日均交易量为105亿股。</blockquote></p><p><b>Here are company's financial statements：</b></p><p><blockquote><b>以下是公司的财务报表：</b></blockquote></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1184181912\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Zoom reports blowout earnings but warns of a coming slowdown</b></a></p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1184181912\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Zoom报告盈利井喷，但警告即将放缓</b></a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/business/sp-500-dips-healthcare-weighs-dow-ends-higher-2021-06-01/\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","OEX":"标普100","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/business/sp-500-dips-healthcare-weighs-dow-ends-higher-2021-06-01/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106176005","content_text":"The S&P 500(.SPX)dipped on Tuesday, with declines in healthcare and tech shares countered by energy and financial gains, as investors weighed the latest U.S. economic data for signs of a rebound and rising inflation.The S&P 500 financial sector(.SPSY)hit a record high, while expected growth in fuel demand boosted oil prices and helped lift the energy sector(.SPNY)3.9%, its biggest one-day gain in nearly four months. The heavyweight tech sector(.SPLRCT)fell while the healthcare sector(.SPXHC)was dragged down by a weak profit forecast from Abbott Laboratories(ABT.N).Data showed U.S.manufacturing activity pickedup in May as pent-up demand in a reopening economy boosted orders. But unfinished work piled up because of shortages of raw materials and labor.\"People came back from a holiday weekend convinced that the economy is recovering nicely and that any inflation that we might be seeing in labor and other costs is temporary,\" Peter Tuz, president of Chase Investment Counsel in Charlottesville, Virginia.The Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI)rose 45.86 points, or 0.13%, to 34,575.31; the S&P 500(.SPX)lost 2.07 points, or 0.05%, at 4,202.04; and the Nasdaq Composite(.IXIC)dropped 12.26 points, or 0.09%, to 13,736.48.Along with sharp gains for financials and energy, the small-cap Russell 2000(.RUT)rose 1.1% on Tuesday, underscoring strength for segments of the stock market expected to do particularly well in an expanding economy.While the S&P 500 remains less than 1% of its record high after four straight months of gains, investors are worried about whether rising inflation could hit equity prices.\"We have supply chain issues, delays, price increases, pricing pressures in general, we have got employers saying they have got difficulty sourcing labor,\" said Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco in New York.\"So this is a microcosm of what we are already hearing about and seeing in the overall economy and it's just a reminder that inflation remains a concern.\"A Wall St. sign is seen near the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., May 4, 2021. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File PhotoStock markets on Friday brushed off a surge inkey inflation readingsfor April following reassurances from Federal Reserve officials that the central bank’s ultra-loose monetary policy would remain in place.Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari and Fed Vice Chair for supervision Randal Quarles on Tuesday reiterated the view that higher prices would be transitory.This week's focus will be on a raft of economic data, culminating with U.S. payrolls due on Friday.Abbott Labs shares fell 9.3% after the company cut itsfull-year 2021 profit forecast, citing expectations for a sharp decline in revenue from its COVID-19 tests as more Americans get vaccinated. Shares of other test makers also fell.Cloudera Inc(CLDR.N)shares jumped 23.9% after private equity firms KKR & Co(KKR.N)and Clayton Dubilier & Rice LLCagreed to take the data analytics firm private.A group of“meme stocks” extended gainsfrom the previous week, with shares of AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc(AMC.N)up 22.7% after the movie theater chain said it sold $230 million of its stock.Advancing issues outnumbered decliners on the NYSE by a 2.54-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.79-to-1 ratio favored advancers.The S&P 500 posted 73 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 168 new highs and 25 new lows.About 10.7 billion shares changed hands in U.S. exchanges, compared with the 10.5 billion daily average over the last 20 sessions.Here are company's financial statements：Zoom reports blowout earnings but warns of a coming 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ty","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/100335157","repostId":"1124091974","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":711,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":359819861,"gmtCreate":1616380739753,"gmtModify":1634526152484,"author":{"id":"3577186651876260","authorId":"3577186651876260","name":"KenKai","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577186651876260","idStr":"3577186651876260"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment on my post thanks!","listText":"Like and comment on my post thanks!","text":"Like and comment on my post thanks!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/359819861","repostId":"1158879714","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158879714","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616380355,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1158879714?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-22 10:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Headed For A Collapsing Debt Bubble<blockquote>走向崩溃的债务泡沫</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158879714","media":"zerohedge","summary":"A $1.9 trillion stimulus package was recently signed into law in the United States. Can such a stimu","content":"<p>A $1.9 trillion stimulus package was recently signed into law in the United States. Can such a stimulus bill, plus packages passed in other countries, really pull the world economy out of the downturn it has been in 2020? I don’t think so.</p><p><blockquote>一项1.9万亿美元的刺激计划最近在美国签署成为法律。这样的刺激法案，加上其他国家通过的一揽子计划，真的能让世界经济走出2020年的低迷吗？我不这么认为。</blockquote></p><p> The economy runs on energy, far more than it operates on growing debt. Our energy problems don’t appear to be fixable in the near term, such as six months or a year. Instead, the economy seems to be headed for a collapse of its debt bubble. Eventually, we may see a reset of the world financial system leading to fewer interchangeable currencies, far less international trade and falling production of goods and services. Some governments may collapse.</p><p><blockquote>经济依靠能源运转，远远超过依靠不断增长的债务运转。我们的能源问题似乎无法在短期内解决，比如六个月或一年。相反，经济似乎正走向债务泡沫的崩溃。最终，我们可能会看到世界金融体系的重置，导致可互换货币减少，国际贸易大幅减少，商品和服务生产下降。一些政府可能会崩溃。</blockquote></p><p> <b>[1] What Is Debt?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>[1]什么是债务？</b></blockquote></p><p> I understand debt to be an&nbsp;<i>indirect promise for future goods and services</i>. These future goods and services can only be created if there are adequate supplies of the right kinds of energy and other materials, in the right places, to make these future goods and services.</p><p><blockquote>我认为债务是一种<i>对未来商品和服务的间接承诺</i>这些未来的商品和服务只有在正确的地方有足够的正确种类的能源和其他材料来制造这些未来的商品和服务才能被创造出来。</blockquote></p><p> I think of debt as being a&nbsp;<i>time-shifting device.</i>&nbsp;Indirectly, it is a promise that the economy will be able to provide as many, or more, goods and services in the future compared to what it does at the time the loan is taken out.</p><p><blockquote>我认为债务是<i>时移装置。</i>间接地，这是一种承诺，即与贷款时相比，经济在未来将能够提供同样多或更多的商品和服务。</blockquote></p><p> Common sense suggests that it is much easier to repay debt with interest in a growing economy than in a shrinking economy. Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff unexpectedly ran across this phenomenon in their 2008 working paper,&nbsp;This Time Is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises. They reported (p. 15), “It is notable that the non-defaulters, by and large, are all hugely successful growth stories.” In other words, their analysis of 800 years of governmental debt showed that default was almost inevitable if a country stopped growing or started shrinking.</p><p><blockquote>常识表明，在一个增长的经济体中，连本带利偿还债务要比在一个萎缩的经济体中容易得多。卡门·莱因哈特（Carmen Reinhart）和肯·罗格夫（Ken Rogoff）在他们2008年的工作论文《这次不同：八个世纪金融危机全景》中意外地遇到了这一现象。他们报告（第15页），“值得注意的是，总的来说，非违约者都是非常成功的增长故事。”换句话说，他们对800年政府债务的分析表明，如果一个国家停止增长或开始萎缩，违约几乎是不可避免的。</blockquote></p><p> The IMF estimates that the world economy&nbsp;shrank by 3.5%&nbsp;in 2020. There are many areas with even worse indications: Euro Area, -7.2%; United Kingdom, -10.0%; India, -8.0%; Mexico, -8.5%; and South Africa, -7.5%. If these situations cannot be turned around quickly, we should expect to see collapsing debt bubbles. Even the US, which shrank by 3.4%, needs a rapid return to growth if it is to keep its debt bubble inflated.</p><p><blockquote>IMF估计，2020年世界经济萎缩3.5%。有许多地区的迹象甚至更糟：欧元区，-7.2%；英国，-10.0%；印度，-8.0%；墨西哥，-8.5%；南非为-7.5%。如果这些情况不能迅速扭转，我们应该期待看到债务泡沫的崩溃。即使是萎缩了3.4%的美国，如果要保持债务泡沫膨胀，也需要快速恢复增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>[2] The Inter-Relationship Among (a) Growing Debt, (b) Growing Energy Consumption and a (c) Growing Economy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>[2](a)债务增长、(b)能源消耗增长和(c)经济增长之间的相互关系</b></blockquote></p><p> When we are far from energy limits, growing debt seems to pull the economy along. This is a graphic I put together in 2018, explaining the situation. A small amount of debt is helpful to the system. But, if there gets to be too much debt, both oil prices and interest rates rise, bringing the braking system into action. The bicycle/economy rapidly slows.</p><p><blockquote>当我们远离能源极限时，不断增长的债务似乎会拉动经济。这是我在2018年整理的一张图，说明了情况。少量的债务对系统有帮助。但是，如果债务过多，油价和利率都会上涨，从而启动制动系统。自行车/经济迅速放缓。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/988ae9ff86e02ba9f0e17f7c656fa38a\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"345\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Figure 1. The author’s view of the analogy of a speeding upright bicycle and a speeding economy.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>图1。作者对飞驰的直立自行车和飞驰的经济的类比的看法。</i></blockquote></p><p> Just as a two-wheeled bicycle needs to be going fast enough to stay upright, the economy needs to be growing rapidly enough for debt to do what it is intended to do. It takes energy supply to create the goods and services that the economy depends on.</p><p><blockquote>正如两轮自行车需要足够快才能保持直立一样，经济也需要足够快的增长才能让债务发挥其预期作用。需要能源供应来创造经济所依赖的商品和服务。</blockquote></p><p> If oil and other energy products are cheap to produce, their benefit will be widely available. Employers will be able to add more efficient machines, such as bigger tractors. These more efficient machines will act to leverage the human labor of the workers. The economy can grow rapidly, without the use of much debt. Figure 2 shows that the world oil price was $20 per barrel in 2020$, or even less, prior to 1974.</p><p><blockquote>如果石油和其他能源产品的生产成本低廉，它们的好处将会广泛存在。雇主将能够增加更高效的机器，如更大的拖拉机。这些更高效的机器将利用工人的人力。经济可以快速增长，而不需要大量的债务。图2显示，2020年世界油价为每桶20美元，1974年之前甚至更低。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0713c7ad2aa2952ae70ab31f031409a6\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"301\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Figure 2. Oil price in 2020 dollars, based on amounts through 2019 in 2019$ from&nbsp;BP’s 2020 Statistical Review of World Energy, the inflationary adjustment from 2019 to 2020 based on CPI Urban prices from the US Department of Labor and the average spot Brent oil price for 2020 based on EIA information.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>图2。以2020年美元计算的油价，基于BP《2020年世界能源统计评论》中截至2019年的2019年美元金额、基于美国劳工部CPI城市价格的2019年至2020年通胀调整以及基于EIA信息的2020年布伦特原油平均现货价格。</i></blockquote></p><p> Figure 3 below shows the historical relationship between the growth in&nbsp;<i>US energy consumption</i>&nbsp;(red line) and&nbsp;<i>the dollar increase in US debt growth required to add a dollar increase in GDP</i>&nbsp;(blue line). This chart calculates ratios for five-year periods because ratios for individual years are unstable.</p><p><blockquote>下图3显示了<i>美国能源消耗</i>（红线）及<i>美国债务增长的美元增长需要GDP的美元增长</i>（蓝线）。此图表计算五年期的比率，因为个别年份的比率不稳定。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/657120d86e4004601bc5a5909fa1cc55\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"303\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Figure 3. Comparison of five-year average growth in US energy consumption based on EIA data with five-year average amount of added debt required to add $1 of GDP.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>图3.基于EIA数据的美国能源消耗五年平均增长与GDP增加1美元所需的五年平均新增债务金额的比较。</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Based on Figure 3, the US average annual growth in energy consumption (red line) generally fell between 1951 and 2020. The quantity of debt that needed to be added to create an additional $1 dollar of GDP (blue line) has generally been rising.</p><p><blockquote>根据图3，1951年至2020年间，美国能源消费年均增长（红线）总体下降。创造额外1美元GDP（蓝线）所需增加的债务数量总体上一直在上升。</blockquote></p><p> According to&nbsp;Investopedia,&nbsp;<i>Gross domestic product</i>&nbsp;(<i>GDP</i>) is the total monetary or market value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a specific time period.&nbsp;Notice that there is no mention of debt in this definition. If businesses or governments can find a way to make large amounts of credit available to borrowers who are not very credit worthy, it becomes easy to sell cars, motorcycles or homes to buyers who may never repay that debt. If the economy hits turbulence, these marginal buyers are likely to default, causing a collapse in a debt bubble.</p><p><blockquote>据Investopedia报道，<i>国内生产总值</i> (<i>国内生产总值</i>）是在特定时间段内一国境内生产的所有制成品和服务的货币或市场总价值。请注意，该定义中没有提到债务。如果企业或政府能够找到一种方法，向信用不佳的借款人提供大量信贷，那么向可能永远无法偿还债务的买家出售汽车、摩托车或房屋就变得很容易。如果经济出现动荡，这些边际买家很可能会违约，导致债务泡沫破裂。</blockquote></p><p> <b>[3] Analyzing Energy Consumption Growth, Debt Growth and Economic Growth for Broader Groupings of Years</b></p><p><blockquote><b>[3]分析更广泛年份的能源消费增长、债务增长和经济增长</b></blockquote></p><p> To get a better idea what is happening with respect to energy growth, debt growth, and GDP growth, I created some broader groupings of years, based primarily on patterns in Figure 2, showing inflation-adjusted oil prices. The following groupings of years were chosen:</p><p><blockquote>为了更好地了解能源增长、债务增长和GDP增长方面的情况，我主要基于图2中显示通胀调整后油价的模式，创建了一些更广泛的年份分组。选择了以下年份分组：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>1950-1973</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>1950-1973</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>1974-1980</p><p><blockquote><li>1974-1980</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>1981-2000</p><p><blockquote><li>1981-2000</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>2001-2014</p><p><blockquote><li>2001-2014</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>2015-2020</p><p><blockquote><li>2015-2020</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Using these groupings of years, I put together charts in which it is easier to see trends.</p><p><blockquote>利用这些年份分组，我把更容易看到趋势的图表放在一起。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/602cfb962c02189ea5825a1f4f7d790d\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"302\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Figure 4. Average annual increase in energy consumption for period shown based on EIA data versus average increase in real (inflation-adjusted) GDP for the period shown based on data of the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>图4.根据EIA数据显示的该期间能源消耗的平均年增幅与根据美国经济分析局数据显示的该期间实际（通胀调整后）GDP的平均增幅。</i></blockquote></p><p> Figure 4 shows that for the US, there has been a general downward trend in the annual growth of energy consumption. At same time, real (that is, inflation-adjusted) GDP has been trending downward, but not quite as quickly.</p><p><blockquote>图4显示，美国能源消费年增长率总体呈下降趋势。与此同时，实际（即经通胀调整的）GDP一直呈下降趋势，但速度没有那么快。</blockquote></p><p> We would expect that lower energy consumption would lead to lower growth in real GDP because it takes energy of the appropriate kinds to make goods and services. For example, it takes oil to ship most goods. It takes electricity to operate computers and keep the lights on. According to the&nbsp;World Coal Association, large quantities of coal are used in producing cement and steel. These are important for construction, such as is planned in stimulus projects around the world.</p><p><blockquote>我们预计，较低的能源消耗将导致实际GDP的较低增长，因为制造商品和服务需要适当种类的能源。例如，运输大多数货物需要石油。操作电脑和保持灯亮着都需要电。据世界煤炭协会称，大量煤炭用于生产水泥和钢铁。这些对于建设很重要，就像世界各地的刺激项目中计划的那样。</blockquote></p><p> Also, on Figure 4, the period 1981 to 2000 shows an uptick in both energy consumption growth and real GDP growth. This period corresponds to a period of relatively low oil prices (Figure 2). With lower oil prices, businesses found it affordable to add new devices to leverage human labor, making workers more productive. The growing productivity of workers is at least part of what led to the increased growth in real GDP.</p><p><blockquote>此外，在图4中，1981年至2000年期间能源消耗增长和实际GDP增长都有所上升。这一时期对应的是油价相对较低的时期（图2）。随着油价下跌，企业发现增加新设备来利用人力是负担得起的，从而提高工人的生产力。工人生产率的提高至少是导致实际GDP增长的部分原因。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dfc9c699891a0b02f9e46e6f3f53bda\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"301\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Figure 5. Dollars of additional debt required to add $1 dollar of GDP growth (including inflation), based on data of the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>图5.根据美国经济分析局的数据，增加1美元GDP增长（包括通货膨胀）所需的额外债务。</i></blockquote></p><p> Figure 5, above, is disturbing. It strongly suggests that the US economy (and probably a lot of other economies) has needed to add an increasing amount of debt to add $1 of GDP in recent years. This pattern started long before President Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus package in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>上图5令人不安。这强烈表明，近年来，美国经济（可能还有许多其他经济体）需要增加越来越多的债务才能使GDP增加1美元。这种模式早在拜登总统2021年推出1.9万亿美元刺激计划之前就开始了。</blockquote></p><p> To make matters worse, GDP growth in Figure 5 has not been reduced to remove the impact of inflation. On average, removing the impact of inflation reduces the above GDP growth by about half. In the period 2015 to 2020, it took about $4.35 of additional debt to add one dollar of GDP growth, including inflation. It would take about double that amount, or $8.70 worth of debt, to create $1.00 worth of inflation-adjusted growth. With such a low return on added debt, it seems unlikely that the $1.9 trillion stimulus package will increase the growth of the economy very much.</p><p><blockquote>更糟糕的是，图5中的GDP增长并没有被降低以消除通货膨胀的影响。平均而言，剔除通货膨胀的影响使上述GDP增长减少了一半左右。在2015年至2020年期间，包括通货膨胀在内，GDP增长1美元需要大约4.35美元的额外债务。需要大约两倍的金额，即价值8.70美元的债务，才能创造价值1.00美元的通胀调整后增长。在新增债务回报率如此之低的情况下，1.9万亿美元的刺激方案似乎不太可能大幅提高经济的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>[4] Falling interest rates (Figure 6) are a major part of what allowed the rapid growth in debt after 1981 shown in Figure 5.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>[4]利率下降（图6）是1981年后债务快速增长的主要原因，如图5所示。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74f347d946ebcebc62fe4fdee1dfffd3\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"193\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Figure 6. 10-Year and 3-Month US Treasury Rates through February 2021, in a chart prepared by the Federal Reserve of St. Louis.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>图6。截至2021年2月的10年期和3个月期美国国债利率，由圣路易斯美联储准备。</i></blockquote></p><p> Clearly, debt is more affordable if the interest rate is lower. For example, auto loans and home mortgages have lower monthly payments if the interest rate is lower. It is also clear that governments need to spend less of their tax revenue on interest rate payments if interest rates are lower. Changes made by US President Ronald Reagan when he took office 1981 also encouraged the use of more debt.</p><p><blockquote>显然，如果利率较低，债务就更容易承受。例如，如果利率较低，汽车贷款和住房抵押贷款的月供也较低。同样清楚的是，如果利率较低，政府需要将更少的税收收入用于利率支付。美国总统罗纳德·里根1981年上任时做出的改变也鼓励了更多债务的使用。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> A major concern with respect to today’s debt bubble is the fact that interest rates are about as low as they can go without going negative. In fact, the interest rate on 10-year Treasury bonds is now 1.72%, which is higher than the February 2021 average rate shown on the chart. As interest rates rise, it becomes more costly to add more debt. As interest rates rise, businesses will be less likely to take on debt in order to expand and hire more workers.</p><p><blockquote>关于当今债务泡沫的一个主要担忧是，利率在不为负的情况下已经尽可能低了。事实上，10年期国债利率现在为1.72%，高于图表所示的2021年2月平均利率。随着利率上升，增加更多债务的成本变得更高。随着利率上升，企业将不太可能为了扩张和雇用更多工人而承担债务。</blockquote></p><p> <b>[5] Interest expense is a major expense of governments, businesses, and homeowners everywhere. Energy costs are another major expense of governments, businesses, and homeowners. It makes sense that falling interest rates can partly hide rising energy prices.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>[5]利息支出是世界各地政府、企业和房主的主要支出。能源成本是政府、企业和房主的另一项主要开支。利率下降可以部分掩盖能源价格上涨，这是有道理的。</b></blockquote></p><p> A trend toward lower interest rates was needed starting in 1981 because the US could no longer produce large amounts of crude oil that were profitable to sell at less than $20 per barrel, in inflation-adjusted prices. Lower interest rates made adding debt more feasible. This added debt could smooth the transition to an economy that was less dependent on oil, now that it was high-priced. The lower interest rates helped all segments of the economy adjust to the new higher cost of oil and other fuels.</p><p><blockquote>从1981年开始，利率下降的趋势是必要的，因为美国不再能够生产大量以低于每桶20美元的价格出售的原油，以通胀调整后的价格出售。较低的利率使得增加债务变得更加可行。这种增加的债务可以平稳地过渡到一个不太依赖石油的经济，因为石油价格很高。较低的利率帮助所有经济部门适应新的更高的石油和其他燃料成本。</blockquote></p><p> <b>[6] The US experience shows precisely how helpful having a rapidly growing supply of inexpensive to produce oil could be to an economy.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>[6]美国的经验恰恰表明，快速增长的廉价石油供应对经济有多大帮助。</b></blockquote></p><p> US oil production, excluding Alaska (blue “remainder” in Figure 7), rose rapidly after 1945 but began to decline not long after hitting a peak in 1970. This growing oil production had temporarily provided a huge boost to the US economy.</p><p><blockquote>美国的石油产量，不包括阿拉斯加（图7中的蓝色“剩余部分”），在1945年后迅速上升，但在1970年达到峰值后不久就开始下降。这种不断增长的石油产量暂时为美国经济提供了巨大的推动力。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4038b2f211130347e8f49562c4fcac0\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"303\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Figure 7. US crude oil production, based on data of the US Energy Information Administration.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>图7.美国原油产量，基于美国能源信息署的数据。</i></blockquote></p><p> Up until almost 1970, US oil production was rising rapidly. Figure 8 shows that during this period, incomes of both the bottom 90% of workers and the top 10% of workers increased rapidly. Over a period of about 20 years, incomes for both groups grew by about 80%, after adjusting for inflation. On average, workers were about 4% better off each year, with the rapid growth in very inexpensive-to-produce oil, all of which stayed in the US (rather than being exported). US imports of inexpensive-to-produce oil also&nbsp;grew during this period.</p><p><blockquote>直到1970年左右，美国石油产量一直在迅速上升。图8显示，在此期间，底层90%的工人和顶层10%的工人的收入都快速增长。在大约20年的时间里，经通货膨胀调整后，这两个群体的收入增长了约80%。平均而言，随着生产成本非常低的石油的快速增长，工人的收入每年增加约4%，所有这些石油都留在了美国（而不是出口）。在此期间，美国生产成本低廉的石油进口也有所增长。</blockquote></p><p> Once oil prices were higher, income growth for both the lower 90% and the top 10% slowed. With the changes made starting in 1981, wage disparities quickly started to grow. There suddenly became a need for new, high-tech approaches that used less oil. But these changes were more helpful to the managers and highly educated workers than the bottom 90% of workers.</p><p><blockquote>一旦油价上涨，底层90%和顶层10%的收入增长都会放缓。随着1981年开始的变化，工资差距迅速开始扩大。突然间，人们需要使用更少石油的新的高科技方法。但这些变化对经理和受过高等教育的工人比底层90%的工人更有帮助。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/863a8245e4a663113ef507527988a806\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Figure 8. Chart comparing income gains by the top 10% to income gains by the bottom 90% by economist Emmanuel Saez. Based on an analysis of IRS data,&nbsp;published in Forbes.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>图8.经济学家Emmanuel Saez绘制的图表比较了收入最高10%的人和收入最低90%的人的收入增长。基于对国税局数据的分析，发表在《福布斯》上。</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>[7] Most of the world’s cheap-to-extract oil sources have now been exhausted. Our problem is that the world market cannot get prices to rise high enough for producers to cover all of their expenses, including taxes.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>[7]世界上大部分开采成本低廉的石油资源现已枯竭。我们的问题是，世界市场无法让价格上涨到足以让生产者支付包括税收在内的所有费用。</b></blockquote></p><p> Based on my analysis, the world price of oil would need to be at least $120 per barrel to cover all of the costs it needs to cover. The costs that need to be covered include more items than an oil company would normally include in its costs estimates. The company needs to develop new fields to compensate for the ones that are being exhausted. It needs to pay interest on its debt. It also needs to pay dividends to its shareholders. In the case of shale producers, the price needs to be high enough that production outside of “sweet spots” can be carried on profitably.</p><p><blockquote>根据我的分析，世界石油价格至少需要达到每桶120美元才能支付所有需要支付的成本。需要支付的成本包括的项目比石油公司通常在成本估算中包含的项目还要多。该公司需要开发新的油田来弥补那些正在枯竭的油田。它需要支付债务利息。它还需要向股东支付股息。就页岩生产商而言，价格需要足够高，以便“最佳点”之外的生产能够盈利。</blockquote></p><p> For oil exporters, it is especially important that the sales price be high enough so that the government of the oil exporting country can collect adequate tax revenue. Otherwise, the exporting country will not be able to maintain food subsidy programs that the population depends on and public works programs that provide jobs.</p><p><blockquote>对于石油出口国来说，尤其重要的是销售价格要足够高，以便石油出口国政府能够收取足够的税收收入。否则，出口国将无法维持人口赖以生存的粮食补贴方案和提供就业机会的公共工程方案。</blockquote></p><p> <b>[8] The world can add more debt, but it is difficult to see how the debt bubble that is created will really pull the world economy forward rapidly enough to keep the debt bubble from collapsing in the next year or two.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>[8]世界可以增加更多的债务，但很难看出所制造的债务泡沫将如何真正快速地拉动世界经济向前发展，足以使债务泡沫在未来一两年内不至于崩溃。</b></blockquote></p><p> Many models are based on the assumption that the economy can easily go back to the growth rate it had, prior to COVID-19. There are several reasons why this seems unlikely:</p><p><blockquote>许多模型都基于这样一种假设，即经济可以很容易地回到新冠肺炎之前的增长率。这似乎不太可能，原因有几个：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Many parts of the world economy weren’t really growing very rapidly prior to the pandemic. For example, shopping malls were doing poorly. Many airlines were in financial difficulty. Private passenger auto sales in China reached a peak in 2017 and have declined every year since.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>在疫情之前，世界经济的许多领域并没有真正快速增长。例如，购物中心表现不佳。许多航空公司陷入财务困境。中国私人乘用车销量在2017年达到顶峰，此后逐年下降。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p><p></li>  <li>At the low oil prices prior to the pandemic, many oil producers (including the US) would need to reduce their production. The 2019 peak in shale production (shown in Figure 7) may prove to be the peak in US oil production because of low prices.</p><p><blockquote><li>在疫情之前的低油价下，许多石油生产国（包括美国）将需要减产。由于价格低廉，2019年页岩油产量的峰值（如图7所示）可能会被证明是美国石油产量的峰值。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Once people became accustomed to working from home, many of them really do not want to go back to a long commute.</p><p><blockquote><li>一旦人们习惯了在家工作，他们中的许多人真的不想回到长途通勤的路上。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>It is not clear that the pandemic is really going away, now that we have kept it around this long. New mutations keep appearing. Vaccines aren’t 100% effective.</p><p><blockquote><li>目前还不清楚疫情是否真的会消失，因为我们已经让它存在了这么久。新的突变不断出现。疫苗不是100%有效。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>As I showed in Figure 5, adding more debt seems to be a very inefficient way of digging the economy out of a hole. What is really needed is a growing supply of oil that can be produced and sold profitably for less than $20 per barrel. Other types of energy need to be similarly inexpensive.</p><p><blockquote><li>正如我在图5中所示，增加更多债务似乎是一种非常低效的将经济从困境中挖出来的方式。真正需要的是越来越多的石油供应，可以以低于每桶20美元的价格生产和销售并获利。其他类型的能源需要同样便宜。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> I should note that intermittent wind and solar energy is not an adequate substitute for oil. It is not even an adequate substitute for “dispatchable” electricity production. It is simply an energy product that has been sufficiently subsidized that it can often make money for its producers. It also sounds good, if it is referred to as “clean energy.” Unfortunately, its true value is lower than its cost of production.</p><p><blockquote>我应该指出，间歇性的风能和太阳能并不能充分替代石油。它甚至不能充分替代“可调度”电力生产。它只是一种能源产品，得到了足够的补贴，经常可以为其生产者赚钱。如果被称为“清洁能源”，听起来也不错。不幸的是，它的真正价值低于它的生产成本。</blockquote></p><p> <b>[9] What’s Ahead?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>[9]前方是什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> I expect that oil prices will rise a bit, but not enough to raise prices to the level producers require. Interest rates will continue to rise as governments around the world attempt more stimulus. With these higher interest rates and higher oil prices, businesses will do less and less well. This will slow the economy enough that debt defaults become a major problem. Within a few months to a year, the worldwide debt bubble will start to collapse, bringing oil prices down by more than 50%. Stock market prices and prices of buildings of all kinds will fall in inflation-adjusted dollars. Many bonds will prove to be worthless. There will be problems with empty shelves in stores and gasoline stations with no products to sell.</p><p><blockquote>我预计油价会上涨一点，但不足以将价格提高到生产商要求的水平。随着世界各国政府尝试更多刺激措施，利率将继续上升。随着利率上升和油价上涨，企业的表现将越来越差。这将使经济放缓，债务违约成为一个主要问题。在几个月到一年内，世界范围内的债务泡沫将开始崩溃，使油价下跌50%以上。以通货膨胀调整后的美元计算，股票市场价格和各种建筑的价格将会下跌。许多债券将被证明一文不值。商店和加油站会出现货架空空、没有产品可卖的问题。</blockquote></p><p> People will start to see that while debt is a promise for the equivalent of future goods and services, it is not necessarily the case that those who make the promises will be able to stand behind these promises. Paper wealth generally can be expected to lose its value.</p><p><blockquote>人们将开始看到，虽然债务是对未来商品和服务等价物的承诺，但做出承诺的人不一定能够支持这些承诺。账面财富通常会贬值。</blockquote></p><p> I can imagine a situation, not too many years from now, when<b>countries everywhere will establish new currencies that are not as easily interchangeable</b>with other currencies as today’s currencies are. International trade will dramatically fall. The standard of living of most people will fall precipitously.</p><p><blockquote>我可以想象一种情况，不是太多年后，当<b>世界各地的国家都将建立不那么容易互换的新货币</b>与今天的货币一样。国际贸易将大幅下降。大多数人的生活水平将急剧下降。</blockquote></p><p> I doubt that the new currencies will be electronic currencies. Keeping the electricity on is a difficult task in economies that increasingly need to rely solely on local resources. Electricity may be out for months at a time after an equipment failure or a storm. Having a currency that depends on electricity alone would be a poor idea.</p><p><blockquote>我怀疑新货币会是电子货币。在越来越需要完全依赖当地资源的经济体中，保持电力供应是一项艰巨的任务。设备故障或暴风雨后，电力可能会一次停电数月。拥有一种仅依赖电力的货币将是一个糟糕的主意。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Headed For A Collapsing Debt Bubble<blockquote>走向崩溃的债务泡沫</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHeaded For A Collapsing Debt Bubble<blockquote>走向崩溃的债务泡沫</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-22 10:32</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>A $1.9 trillion stimulus package was recently signed into law in the United States. Can such a stimulus bill, plus packages passed in other countries, really pull the world economy out of the downturn it has been in 2020? I don’t think so.</p><p><blockquote>一项1.9万亿美元的刺激计划最近在美国签署成为法律。这样的刺激法案，加上其他国家通过的一揽子计划，真的能让世界经济走出2020年的低迷吗？我不这么认为。</blockquote></p><p> The economy runs on energy, far more than it operates on growing debt. Our energy problems don’t appear to be fixable in the near term, such as six months or a year. Instead, the economy seems to be headed for a collapse of its debt bubble. Eventually, we may see a reset of the world financial system leading to fewer interchangeable currencies, far less international trade and falling production of goods and services. Some governments may collapse.</p><p><blockquote>经济依靠能源运转，远远超过依靠不断增长的债务运转。我们的能源问题似乎无法在短期内解决，比如六个月或一年。相反，经济似乎正走向债务泡沫的崩溃。最终，我们可能会看到世界金融体系的重置，导致可互换货币减少，国际贸易大幅减少，商品和服务生产下降。一些政府可能会崩溃。</blockquote></p><p> <b>[1] What Is Debt?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>[1]什么是债务？</b></blockquote></p><p> I understand debt to be an&nbsp;<i>indirect promise for future goods and services</i>. These future goods and services can only be created if there are adequate supplies of the right kinds of energy and other materials, in the right places, to make these future goods and services.</p><p><blockquote>我认为债务是一种<i>对未来商品和服务的间接承诺</i>这些未来的商品和服务只有在正确的地方有足够的正确种类的能源和其他材料来制造这些未来的商品和服务才能被创造出来。</blockquote></p><p> I think of debt as being a&nbsp;<i>time-shifting device.</i>&nbsp;Indirectly, it is a promise that the economy will be able to provide as many, or more, goods and services in the future compared to what it does at the time the loan is taken out.</p><p><blockquote>我认为债务是<i>时移装置。</i>间接地，这是一种承诺，即与贷款时相比，经济在未来将能够提供同样多或更多的商品和服务。</blockquote></p><p> Common sense suggests that it is much easier to repay debt with interest in a growing economy than in a shrinking economy. Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff unexpectedly ran across this phenomenon in their 2008 working paper,&nbsp;This Time Is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises. They reported (p. 15), “It is notable that the non-defaulters, by and large, are all hugely successful growth stories.” In other words, their analysis of 800 years of governmental debt showed that default was almost inevitable if a country stopped growing or started shrinking.</p><p><blockquote>常识表明，在一个增长的经济体中，连本带利偿还债务要比在一个萎缩的经济体中容易得多。卡门·莱因哈特（Carmen Reinhart）和肯·罗格夫（Ken Rogoff）在他们2008年的工作论文《这次不同：八个世纪金融危机全景》中意外地遇到了这一现象。他们报告（第15页），“值得注意的是，总的来说，非违约者都是非常成功的增长故事。”换句话说，他们对800年政府债务的分析表明，如果一个国家停止增长或开始萎缩，违约几乎是不可避免的。</blockquote></p><p> The IMF estimates that the world economy&nbsp;shrank by 3.5%&nbsp;in 2020. There are many areas with even worse indications: Euro Area, -7.2%; United Kingdom, -10.0%; India, -8.0%; Mexico, -8.5%; and South Africa, -7.5%. If these situations cannot be turned around quickly, we should expect to see collapsing debt bubbles. Even the US, which shrank by 3.4%, needs a rapid return to growth if it is to keep its debt bubble inflated.</p><p><blockquote>IMF估计，2020年世界经济萎缩3.5%。有许多地区的迹象甚至更糟：欧元区，-7.2%；英国，-10.0%；印度，-8.0%；墨西哥，-8.5%；南非为-7.5%。如果这些情况不能迅速扭转，我们应该期待看到债务泡沫的崩溃。即使是萎缩了3.4%的美国，如果要保持债务泡沫膨胀，也需要快速恢复增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>[2] The Inter-Relationship Among (a) Growing Debt, (b) Growing Energy Consumption and a (c) Growing Economy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>[2](a)债务增长、(b)能源消耗增长和(c)经济增长之间的相互关系</b></blockquote></p><p> When we are far from energy limits, growing debt seems to pull the economy along. This is a graphic I put together in 2018, explaining the situation. A small amount of debt is helpful to the system. But, if there gets to be too much debt, both oil prices and interest rates rise, bringing the braking system into action. The bicycle/economy rapidly slows.</p><p><blockquote>当我们远离能源极限时，不断增长的债务似乎会拉动经济。这是我在2018年整理的一张图，说明了情况。少量的债务对系统有帮助。但是，如果债务过多，油价和利率都会上涨，从而启动制动系统。自行车/经济迅速放缓。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/988ae9ff86e02ba9f0e17f7c656fa38a\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"345\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Figure 1. The author’s view of the analogy of a speeding upright bicycle and a speeding economy.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>图1。作者对飞驰的直立自行车和飞驰的经济的类比的看法。</i></blockquote></p><p> Just as a two-wheeled bicycle needs to be going fast enough to stay upright, the economy needs to be growing rapidly enough for debt to do what it is intended to do. It takes energy supply to create the goods and services that the economy depends on.</p><p><blockquote>正如两轮自行车需要足够快才能保持直立一样，经济也需要足够快的增长才能让债务发挥其预期作用。需要能源供应来创造经济所依赖的商品和服务。</blockquote></p><p> If oil and other energy products are cheap to produce, their benefit will be widely available. Employers will be able to add more efficient machines, such as bigger tractors. These more efficient machines will act to leverage the human labor of the workers. The economy can grow rapidly, without the use of much debt. Figure 2 shows that the world oil price was $20 per barrel in 2020$, or even less, prior to 1974.</p><p><blockquote>如果石油和其他能源产品的生产成本低廉，它们的好处将会广泛存在。雇主将能够增加更高效的机器，如更大的拖拉机。这些更高效的机器将利用工人的人力。经济可以快速增长，而不需要大量的债务。图2显示，2020年世界油价为每桶20美元，1974年之前甚至更低。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0713c7ad2aa2952ae70ab31f031409a6\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"301\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Figure 2. Oil price in 2020 dollars, based on amounts through 2019 in 2019$ from&nbsp;BP’s 2020 Statistical Review of World Energy, the inflationary adjustment from 2019 to 2020 based on CPI Urban prices from the US Department of Labor and the average spot Brent oil price for 2020 based on EIA information.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>图2。以2020年美元计算的油价，基于BP《2020年世界能源统计评论》中截至2019年的2019年美元金额、基于美国劳工部CPI城市价格的2019年至2020年通胀调整以及基于EIA信息的2020年布伦特原油平均现货价格。</i></blockquote></p><p> Figure 3 below shows the historical relationship between the growth in&nbsp;<i>US energy consumption</i>&nbsp;(red line) and&nbsp;<i>the dollar increase in US debt growth required to add a dollar increase in GDP</i>&nbsp;(blue line). This chart calculates ratios for five-year periods because ratios for individual years are unstable.</p><p><blockquote>下图3显示了<i>美国能源消耗</i>（红线）及<i>美国债务增长的美元增长需要GDP的美元增长</i>（蓝线）。此图表计算五年期的比率，因为个别年份的比率不稳定。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/657120d86e4004601bc5a5909fa1cc55\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"303\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Figure 3. Comparison of five-year average growth in US energy consumption based on EIA data with five-year average amount of added debt required to add $1 of GDP.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>图3.基于EIA数据的美国能源消耗五年平均增长与GDP增加1美元所需的五年平均新增债务金额的比较。</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Based on Figure 3, the US average annual growth in energy consumption (red line) generally fell between 1951 and 2020. The quantity of debt that needed to be added to create an additional $1 dollar of GDP (blue line) has generally been rising.</p><p><blockquote>根据图3，1951年至2020年间，美国能源消费年均增长（红线）总体下降。创造额外1美元GDP（蓝线）所需增加的债务数量总体上一直在上升。</blockquote></p><p> According to&nbsp;Investopedia,&nbsp;<i>Gross domestic product</i>&nbsp;(<i>GDP</i>) is the total monetary or market value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a specific time period.&nbsp;Notice that there is no mention of debt in this definition. If businesses or governments can find a way to make large amounts of credit available to borrowers who are not very credit worthy, it becomes easy to sell cars, motorcycles or homes to buyers who may never repay that debt. If the economy hits turbulence, these marginal buyers are likely to default, causing a collapse in a debt bubble.</p><p><blockquote>据Investopedia报道，<i>国内生产总值</i> (<i>国内生产总值</i>）是在特定时间段内一国境内生产的所有制成品和服务的货币或市场总价值。请注意，该定义中没有提到债务。如果企业或政府能够找到一种方法，向信用不佳的借款人提供大量信贷，那么向可能永远无法偿还债务的买家出售汽车、摩托车或房屋就变得很容易。如果经济出现动荡，这些边际买家很可能会违约，导致债务泡沫破裂。</blockquote></p><p> <b>[3] Analyzing Energy Consumption Growth, Debt Growth and Economic Growth for Broader Groupings of Years</b></p><p><blockquote><b>[3]分析更广泛年份的能源消费增长、债务增长和经济增长</b></blockquote></p><p> To get a better idea what is happening with respect to energy growth, debt growth, and GDP growth, I created some broader groupings of years, based primarily on patterns in Figure 2, showing inflation-adjusted oil prices. The following groupings of years were chosen:</p><p><blockquote>为了更好地了解能源增长、债务增长和GDP增长方面的情况，我主要基于图2中显示通胀调整后油价的模式，创建了一些更广泛的年份分组。选择了以下年份分组：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>1950-1973</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>1950-1973</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>1974-1980</p><p><blockquote><li>1974-1980</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>1981-2000</p><p><blockquote><li>1981-2000</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>2001-2014</p><p><blockquote><li>2001-2014</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>2015-2020</p><p><blockquote><li>2015-2020</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Using these groupings of years, I put together charts in which it is easier to see trends.</p><p><blockquote>利用这些年份分组，我把更容易看到趋势的图表放在一起。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/602cfb962c02189ea5825a1f4f7d790d\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"302\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Figure 4. Average annual increase in energy consumption for period shown based on EIA data versus average increase in real (inflation-adjusted) GDP for the period shown based on data of the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>图4.根据EIA数据显示的该期间能源消耗的平均年增幅与根据美国经济分析局数据显示的该期间实际（通胀调整后）GDP的平均增幅。</i></blockquote></p><p> Figure 4 shows that for the US, there has been a general downward trend in the annual growth of energy consumption. At same time, real (that is, inflation-adjusted) GDP has been trending downward, but not quite as quickly.</p><p><blockquote>图4显示，美国能源消费年增长率总体呈下降趋势。与此同时，实际（即经通胀调整的）GDP一直呈下降趋势，但速度没有那么快。</blockquote></p><p> We would expect that lower energy consumption would lead to lower growth in real GDP because it takes energy of the appropriate kinds to make goods and services. For example, it takes oil to ship most goods. It takes electricity to operate computers and keep the lights on. According to the&nbsp;World Coal Association, large quantities of coal are used in producing cement and steel. These are important for construction, such as is planned in stimulus projects around the world.</p><p><blockquote>我们预计，较低的能源消耗将导致实际GDP的较低增长，因为制造商品和服务需要适当种类的能源。例如，运输大多数货物需要石油。操作电脑和保持灯亮着都需要电。据世界煤炭协会称，大量煤炭用于生产水泥和钢铁。这些对于建设很重要，就像世界各地的刺激项目中计划的那样。</blockquote></p><p> Also, on Figure 4, the period 1981 to 2000 shows an uptick in both energy consumption growth and real GDP growth. This period corresponds to a period of relatively low oil prices (Figure 2). With lower oil prices, businesses found it affordable to add new devices to leverage human labor, making workers more productive. The growing productivity of workers is at least part of what led to the increased growth in real GDP.</p><p><blockquote>此外，在图4中，1981年至2000年期间能源消耗增长和实际GDP增长都有所上升。这一时期对应的是油价相对较低的时期（图2）。随着油价下跌，企业发现增加新设备来利用人力是负担得起的，从而提高工人的生产力。工人生产率的提高至少是导致实际GDP增长的部分原因。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dfc9c699891a0b02f9e46e6f3f53bda\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"301\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Figure 5. Dollars of additional debt required to add $1 dollar of GDP growth (including inflation), based on data of the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>图5.根据美国经济分析局的数据，增加1美元GDP增长（包括通货膨胀）所需的额外债务。</i></blockquote></p><p> Figure 5, above, is disturbing. It strongly suggests that the US economy (and probably a lot of other economies) has needed to add an increasing amount of debt to add $1 of GDP in recent years. This pattern started long before President Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus package in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>上图5令人不安。这强烈表明，近年来，美国经济（可能还有许多其他经济体）需要增加越来越多的债务才能使GDP增加1美元。这种模式早在拜登总统2021年推出1.9万亿美元刺激计划之前就开始了。</blockquote></p><p> To make matters worse, GDP growth in Figure 5 has not been reduced to remove the impact of inflation. On average, removing the impact of inflation reduces the above GDP growth by about half. In the period 2015 to 2020, it took about $4.35 of additional debt to add one dollar of GDP growth, including inflation. It would take about double that amount, or $8.70 worth of debt, to create $1.00 worth of inflation-adjusted growth. With such a low return on added debt, it seems unlikely that the $1.9 trillion stimulus package will increase the growth of the economy very much.</p><p><blockquote>更糟糕的是，图5中的GDP增长并没有被降低以消除通货膨胀的影响。平均而言，剔除通货膨胀的影响使上述GDP增长减少了一半左右。在2015年至2020年期间，包括通货膨胀在内，GDP增长1美元需要大约4.35美元的额外债务。需要大约两倍的金额，即价值8.70美元的债务，才能创造价值1.00美元的通胀调整后增长。在新增债务回报率如此之低的情况下，1.9万亿美元的刺激方案似乎不太可能大幅提高经济的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>[4] Falling interest rates (Figure 6) are a major part of what allowed the rapid growth in debt after 1981 shown in Figure 5.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>[4]利率下降（图6）是1981年后债务快速增长的主要原因，如图5所示。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74f347d946ebcebc62fe4fdee1dfffd3\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"193\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Figure 6. 10-Year and 3-Month US Treasury Rates through February 2021, in a chart prepared by the Federal Reserve of St. Louis.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>图6。截至2021年2月的10年期和3个月期美国国债利率，由圣路易斯美联储准备。</i></blockquote></p><p> Clearly, debt is more affordable if the interest rate is lower. For example, auto loans and home mortgages have lower monthly payments if the interest rate is lower. It is also clear that governments need to spend less of their tax revenue on interest rate payments if interest rates are lower. Changes made by US President Ronald Reagan when he took office 1981 also encouraged the use of more debt.</p><p><blockquote>显然，如果利率较低，债务就更容易承受。例如，如果利率较低，汽车贷款和住房抵押贷款的月供也较低。同样清楚的是，如果利率较低，政府需要将更少的税收收入用于利率支付。美国总统罗纳德·里根1981年上任时做出的改变也鼓励了更多债务的使用。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> A major concern with respect to today’s debt bubble is the fact that interest rates are about as low as they can go without going negative. In fact, the interest rate on 10-year Treasury bonds is now 1.72%, which is higher than the February 2021 average rate shown on the chart. As interest rates rise, it becomes more costly to add more debt. As interest rates rise, businesses will be less likely to take on debt in order to expand and hire more workers.</p><p><blockquote>关于当今债务泡沫的一个主要担忧是，利率在不为负的情况下已经尽可能低了。事实上，10年期国债利率现在为1.72%，高于图表所示的2021年2月平均利率。随着利率上升，增加更多债务的成本变得更高。随着利率上升，企业将不太可能为了扩张和雇用更多工人而承担债务。</blockquote></p><p> <b>[5] Interest expense is a major expense of governments, businesses, and homeowners everywhere. Energy costs are another major expense of governments, businesses, and homeowners. It makes sense that falling interest rates can partly hide rising energy prices.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>[5]利息支出是世界各地政府、企业和房主的主要支出。能源成本是政府、企业和房主的另一项主要开支。利率下降可以部分掩盖能源价格上涨，这是有道理的。</b></blockquote></p><p> A trend toward lower interest rates was needed starting in 1981 because the US could no longer produce large amounts of crude oil that were profitable to sell at less than $20 per barrel, in inflation-adjusted prices. Lower interest rates made adding debt more feasible. This added debt could smooth the transition to an economy that was less dependent on oil, now that it was high-priced. The lower interest rates helped all segments of the economy adjust to the new higher cost of oil and other fuels.</p><p><blockquote>从1981年开始，利率下降的趋势是必要的，因为美国不再能够生产大量以低于每桶20美元的价格出售的原油，以通胀调整后的价格出售。较低的利率使得增加债务变得更加可行。这种增加的债务可以平稳地过渡到一个不太依赖石油的经济，因为石油价格很高。较低的利率帮助所有经济部门适应新的更高的石油和其他燃料成本。</blockquote></p><p> <b>[6] The US experience shows precisely how helpful having a rapidly growing supply of inexpensive to produce oil could be to an economy.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>[6]美国的经验恰恰表明，快速增长的廉价石油供应对经济有多大帮助。</b></blockquote></p><p> US oil production, excluding Alaska (blue “remainder” in Figure 7), rose rapidly after 1945 but began to decline not long after hitting a peak in 1970. This growing oil production had temporarily provided a huge boost to the US economy.</p><p><blockquote>美国的石油产量，不包括阿拉斯加（图7中的蓝色“剩余部分”），在1945年后迅速上升，但在1970年达到峰值后不久就开始下降。这种不断增长的石油产量暂时为美国经济提供了巨大的推动力。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4038b2f211130347e8f49562c4fcac0\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"303\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Figure 7. US crude oil production, based on data of the US Energy Information Administration.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>图7.美国原油产量，基于美国能源信息署的数据。</i></blockquote></p><p> Up until almost 1970, US oil production was rising rapidly. Figure 8 shows that during this period, incomes of both the bottom 90% of workers and the top 10% of workers increased rapidly. Over a period of about 20 years, incomes for both groups grew by about 80%, after adjusting for inflation. On average, workers were about 4% better off each year, with the rapid growth in very inexpensive-to-produce oil, all of which stayed in the US (rather than being exported). US imports of inexpensive-to-produce oil also&nbsp;grew during this period.</p><p><blockquote>直到1970年左右，美国石油产量一直在迅速上升。图8显示，在此期间，底层90%的工人和顶层10%的工人的收入都快速增长。在大约20年的时间里，经通货膨胀调整后，这两个群体的收入增长了约80%。平均而言，随着生产成本非常低的石油的快速增长，工人的收入每年增加约4%，所有这些石油都留在了美国（而不是出口）。在此期间，美国生产成本低廉的石油进口也有所增长。</blockquote></p><p> Once oil prices were higher, income growth for both the lower 90% and the top 10% slowed. With the changes made starting in 1981, wage disparities quickly started to grow. There suddenly became a need for new, high-tech approaches that used less oil. But these changes were more helpful to the managers and highly educated workers than the bottom 90% of workers.</p><p><blockquote>一旦油价上涨，底层90%和顶层10%的收入增长都会放缓。随着1981年开始的变化，工资差距迅速开始扩大。突然间，人们需要使用更少石油的新的高科技方法。但这些变化对经理和受过高等教育的工人比底层90%的工人更有帮助。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/863a8245e4a663113ef507527988a806\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Figure 8. Chart comparing income gains by the top 10% to income gains by the bottom 90% by economist Emmanuel Saez. Based on an analysis of IRS data,&nbsp;published in Forbes.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>图8.经济学家Emmanuel Saez绘制的图表比较了收入最高10%的人和收入最低90%的人的收入增长。基于对国税局数据的分析，发表在《福布斯》上。</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>[7] Most of the world’s cheap-to-extract oil sources have now been exhausted. Our problem is that the world market cannot get prices to rise high enough for producers to cover all of their expenses, including taxes.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>[7]世界上大部分开采成本低廉的石油资源现已枯竭。我们的问题是，世界市场无法让价格上涨到足以让生产者支付包括税收在内的所有费用。</b></blockquote></p><p> Based on my analysis, the world price of oil would need to be at least $120 per barrel to cover all of the costs it needs to cover. The costs that need to be covered include more items than an oil company would normally include in its costs estimates. The company needs to develop new fields to compensate for the ones that are being exhausted. It needs to pay interest on its debt. It also needs to pay dividends to its shareholders. In the case of shale producers, the price needs to be high enough that production outside of “sweet spots” can be carried on profitably.</p><p><blockquote>根据我的分析，世界石油价格至少需要达到每桶120美元才能支付所有需要支付的成本。需要支付的成本包括的项目比石油公司通常在成本估算中包含的项目还要多。该公司需要开发新的油田来弥补那些正在枯竭的油田。它需要支付债务利息。它还需要向股东支付股息。就页岩生产商而言，价格需要足够高，以便“最佳点”之外的生产能够盈利。</blockquote></p><p> For oil exporters, it is especially important that the sales price be high enough so that the government of the oil exporting country can collect adequate tax revenue. Otherwise, the exporting country will not be able to maintain food subsidy programs that the population depends on and public works programs that provide jobs.</p><p><blockquote>对于石油出口国来说，尤其重要的是销售价格要足够高，以便石油出口国政府能够收取足够的税收收入。否则，出口国将无法维持人口赖以生存的粮食补贴方案和提供就业机会的公共工程方案。</blockquote></p><p> <b>[8] The world can add more debt, but it is difficult to see how the debt bubble that is created will really pull the world economy forward rapidly enough to keep the debt bubble from collapsing in the next year or two.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>[8]世界可以增加更多的债务，但很难看出所制造的债务泡沫将如何真正快速地拉动世界经济向前发展，足以使债务泡沫在未来一两年内不至于崩溃。</b></blockquote></p><p> Many models are based on the assumption that the economy can easily go back to the growth rate it had, prior to COVID-19. There are several reasons why this seems unlikely:</p><p><blockquote>许多模型都基于这样一种假设，即经济可以很容易地回到新冠肺炎之前的增长率。这似乎不太可能，原因有几个：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Many parts of the world economy weren’t really growing very rapidly prior to the pandemic. For example, shopping malls were doing poorly. Many airlines were in financial difficulty. Private passenger auto sales in China reached a peak in 2017 and have declined every year since.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>在疫情之前，世界经济的许多领域并没有真正快速增长。例如，购物中心表现不佳。许多航空公司陷入财务困境。中国私人乘用车销量在2017年达到顶峰，此后逐年下降。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p><p></li>  <li>At the low oil prices prior to the pandemic, many oil producers (including the US) would need to reduce their production. The 2019 peak in shale production (shown in Figure 7) may prove to be the peak in US oil production because of low prices.</p><p><blockquote><li>在疫情之前的低油价下，许多石油生产国（包括美国）将需要减产。由于价格低廉，2019年页岩油产量的峰值（如图7所示）可能会被证明是美国石油产量的峰值。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Once people became accustomed to working from home, many of them really do not want to go back to a long commute.</p><p><blockquote><li>一旦人们习惯了在家工作，他们中的许多人真的不想回到长途通勤的路上。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>It is not clear that the pandemic is really going away, now that we have kept it around this long. New mutations keep appearing. Vaccines aren’t 100% effective.</p><p><blockquote><li>目前还不清楚疫情是否真的会消失，因为我们已经让它存在了这么久。新的突变不断出现。疫苗不是100%有效。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>As I showed in Figure 5, adding more debt seems to be a very inefficient way of digging the economy out of a hole. What is really needed is a growing supply of oil that can be produced and sold profitably for less than $20 per barrel. Other types of energy need to be similarly inexpensive.</p><p><blockquote><li>正如我在图5中所示，增加更多债务似乎是一种非常低效的将经济从困境中挖出来的方式。真正需要的是越来越多的石油供应，可以以低于每桶20美元的价格生产和销售并获利。其他类型的能源需要同样便宜。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> I should note that intermittent wind and solar energy is not an adequate substitute for oil. It is not even an adequate substitute for “dispatchable” electricity production. It is simply an energy product that has been sufficiently subsidized that it can often make money for its producers. It also sounds good, if it is referred to as “clean energy.” Unfortunately, its true value is lower than its cost of production.</p><p><blockquote>我应该指出，间歇性的风能和太阳能并不能充分替代石油。它甚至不能充分替代“可调度”电力生产。它只是一种能源产品，得到了足够的补贴，经常可以为其生产者赚钱。如果被称为“清洁能源”，听起来也不错。不幸的是，它的真正价值低于它的生产成本。</blockquote></p><p> <b>[9] What’s Ahead?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>[9]前方是什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> I expect that oil prices will rise a bit, but not enough to raise prices to the level producers require. Interest rates will continue to rise as governments around the world attempt more stimulus. With these higher interest rates and higher oil prices, businesses will do less and less well. This will slow the economy enough that debt defaults become a major problem. Within a few months to a year, the worldwide debt bubble will start to collapse, bringing oil prices down by more than 50%. Stock market prices and prices of buildings of all kinds will fall in inflation-adjusted dollars. Many bonds will prove to be worthless. There will be problems with empty shelves in stores and gasoline stations with no products to sell.</p><p><blockquote>我预计油价会上涨一点，但不足以将价格提高到生产商要求的水平。随着世界各国政府尝试更多刺激措施，利率将继续上升。随着利率上升和油价上涨，企业的表现将越来越差。这将使经济放缓，债务违约成为一个主要问题。在几个月到一年内，世界范围内的债务泡沫将开始崩溃，使油价下跌50%以上。以通货膨胀调整后的美元计算，股票市场价格和各种建筑的价格将会下跌。许多债券将被证明一文不值。商店和加油站会出现货架空空、没有产品可卖的问题。</blockquote></p><p> People will start to see that while debt is a promise for the equivalent of future goods and services, it is not necessarily the case that those who make the promises will be able to stand behind these promises. Paper wealth generally can be expected to lose its value.</p><p><blockquote>人们将开始看到，虽然债务是对未来商品和服务等价物的承诺，但做出承诺的人不一定能够支持这些承诺。账面财富通常会贬值。</blockquote></p><p> I can imagine a situation, not too many years from now, when<b>countries everywhere will establish new currencies that are not as easily interchangeable</b>with other currencies as today’s currencies are. International trade will dramatically fall. The standard of living of most people will fall precipitously.</p><p><blockquote>我可以想象一种情况，不是太多年后，当<b>世界各地的国家都将建立不那么容易互换的新货币</b>与今天的货币一样。国际贸易将大幅下降。大多数人的生活水平将急剧下降。</blockquote></p><p> I doubt that the new currencies will be electronic currencies. Keeping the electricity on is a difficult task in economies that increasingly need to rely solely on local resources. Electricity may be out for months at a time after an equipment failure or a storm. Having a currency that depends on electricity alone would be a poor idea.</p><p><blockquote>我怀疑新货币会是电子货币。在越来越需要完全依赖当地资源的经济体中，保持电力供应是一项艰巨的任务。设备故障或暴风雨后，电力可能会一次停电数月。拥有一种仅依赖电力的货币将是一个糟糕的主意。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/headed-collapsing-debt-bubble\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/headed-collapsing-debt-bubble","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158879714","content_text":"A $1.9 trillion stimulus package was recently signed into law in the United States. Can such a stimulus bill, plus packages passed in other countries, really pull the world economy out of the downturn it has been in 2020? I don’t think so.\nThe economy runs on energy, far more than it operates on growing debt. Our energy problems don’t appear to be fixable in the near term, such as six months or a year. Instead, the economy seems to be headed for a collapse of its debt bubble. Eventually, we may see a reset of the world financial system leading to fewer interchangeable currencies, far less international trade and falling production of goods and services. Some governments may collapse.\n[1] What Is Debt?\nI understand debt to be an indirect promise for future goods and services. These future goods and services can only be created if there are adequate supplies of the right kinds of energy and other materials, in the right places, to make these future goods and services.\nI think of debt as being a time-shifting device. Indirectly, it is a promise that the economy will be able to provide as many, or more, goods and services in the future compared to what it does at the time the loan is taken out.\nCommon sense suggests that it is much easier to repay debt with interest in a growing economy than in a shrinking economy. Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff unexpectedly ran across this phenomenon in their 2008 working paper, This Time Is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises. They reported (p. 15), “It is notable that the non-defaulters, by and large, are all hugely successful growth stories.” In other words, their analysis of 800 years of governmental debt showed that default was almost inevitable if a country stopped growing or started shrinking.\nThe IMF estimates that the world economy shrank by 3.5% in 2020. There are many areas with even worse indications: Euro Area, -7.2%; United Kingdom, -10.0%; India, -8.0%; Mexico, -8.5%; and South Africa, -7.5%. If these situations cannot be turned around quickly, we should expect to see collapsing debt bubbles. Even the US, which shrank by 3.4%, needs a rapid return to growth if it is to keep its debt bubble inflated.\n[2] The Inter-Relationship Among (a) Growing Debt, (b) Growing Energy Consumption and a (c) Growing Economy\nWhen we are far from energy limits, growing debt seems to pull the economy along. This is a graphic I put together in 2018, explaining the situation. A small amount of debt is helpful to the system. But, if there gets to be too much debt, both oil prices and interest rates rise, bringing the braking system into action. The bicycle/economy rapidly slows.\n\nFigure 1. The author’s view of the analogy of a speeding upright bicycle and a speeding economy.\nJust as a two-wheeled bicycle needs to be going fast enough to stay upright, the economy needs to be growing rapidly enough for debt to do what it is intended to do. It takes energy supply to create the goods and services that the economy depends on.\nIf oil and other energy products are cheap to produce, their benefit will be widely available. Employers will be able to add more efficient machines, such as bigger tractors. These more efficient machines will act to leverage the human labor of the workers. The economy can grow rapidly, without the use of much debt. Figure 2 shows that the world oil price was $20 per barrel in 2020$, or even less, prior to 1974.\n\nFigure 2. Oil price in 2020 dollars, based on amounts through 2019 in 2019$ from BP’s 2020 Statistical Review of World Energy, the inflationary adjustment from 2019 to 2020 based on CPI Urban prices from the US Department of Labor and the average spot Brent oil price for 2020 based on EIA information.\nFigure 3 below shows the historical relationship between the growth in US energy consumption (red line) and the dollar increase in US debt growth required to add a dollar increase in GDP (blue line). This chart calculates ratios for five-year periods because ratios for individual years are unstable.\n\nFigure 3. Comparison of five-year average growth in US energy consumption based on EIA data with five-year average amount of added debt required to add $1 of GDP.\nBased on Figure 3, the US average annual growth in energy consumption (red line) generally fell between 1951 and 2020. The quantity of debt that needed to be added to create an additional $1 dollar of GDP (blue line) has generally been rising.\nAccording to Investopedia, Gross domestic product (GDP) is the total monetary or market value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a specific time period. Notice that there is no mention of debt in this definition. If businesses or governments can find a way to make large amounts of credit available to borrowers who are not very credit worthy, it becomes easy to sell cars, motorcycles or homes to buyers who may never repay that debt. If the economy hits turbulence, these marginal buyers are likely to default, causing a collapse in a debt bubble.\n[3] Analyzing Energy Consumption Growth, Debt Growth and Economic Growth for Broader Groupings of Years\nTo get a better idea what is happening with respect to energy growth, debt growth, and GDP growth, I created some broader groupings of years, based primarily on patterns in Figure 2, showing inflation-adjusted oil prices. The following groupings of years were chosen:\n\n1950-1973\n1974-1980\n1981-2000\n2001-2014\n2015-2020\n\nUsing these groupings of years, I put together charts in which it is easier to see trends.\n\nFigure 4. Average annual increase in energy consumption for period shown based on EIA data versus average increase in real (inflation-adjusted) GDP for the period shown based on data of the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.\nFigure 4 shows that for the US, there has been a general downward trend in the annual growth of energy consumption. At same time, real (that is, inflation-adjusted) GDP has been trending downward, but not quite as quickly.\nWe would expect that lower energy consumption would lead to lower growth in real GDP because it takes energy of the appropriate kinds to make goods and services. For example, it takes oil to ship most goods. It takes electricity to operate computers and keep the lights on. According to the World Coal Association, large quantities of coal are used in producing cement and steel. These are important for construction, such as is planned in stimulus projects around the world.\nAlso, on Figure 4, the period 1981 to 2000 shows an uptick in both energy consumption growth and real GDP growth. This period corresponds to a period of relatively low oil prices (Figure 2). With lower oil prices, businesses found it affordable to add new devices to leverage human labor, making workers more productive. The growing productivity of workers is at least part of what led to the increased growth in real GDP.\n\nFigure 5. Dollars of additional debt required to add $1 dollar of GDP growth (including inflation), based on data of the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.\nFigure 5, above, is disturbing. It strongly suggests that the US economy (and probably a lot of other economies) has needed to add an increasing amount of debt to add $1 of GDP in recent years. This pattern started long before President Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus package in 2021.\nTo make matters worse, GDP growth in Figure 5 has not been reduced to remove the impact of inflation. On average, removing the impact of inflation reduces the above GDP growth by about half. In the period 2015 to 2020, it took about $4.35 of additional debt to add one dollar of GDP growth, including inflation. It would take about double that amount, or $8.70 worth of debt, to create $1.00 worth of inflation-adjusted growth. With such a low return on added debt, it seems unlikely that the $1.9 trillion stimulus package will increase the growth of the economy very much.\n[4] Falling interest rates (Figure 6) are a major part of what allowed the rapid growth in debt after 1981 shown in Figure 5.\n\nFigure 6. 10-Year and 3-Month US Treasury Rates through February 2021, in a chart prepared by the Federal Reserve of St. Louis.\nClearly, debt is more affordable if the interest rate is lower. For example, auto loans and home mortgages have lower monthly payments if the interest rate is lower. It is also clear that governments need to spend less of their tax revenue on interest rate payments if interest rates are lower. Changes made by US President Ronald Reagan when he took office 1981 also encouraged the use of more debt.\nA major concern with respect to today’s debt bubble is the fact that interest rates are about as low as they can go without going negative. In fact, the interest rate on 10-year Treasury bonds is now 1.72%, which is higher than the February 2021 average rate shown on the chart. As interest rates rise, it becomes more costly to add more debt. As interest rates rise, businesses will be less likely to take on debt in order to expand and hire more workers.\n[5] Interest expense is a major expense of governments, businesses, and homeowners everywhere. Energy costs are another major expense of governments, businesses, and homeowners. It makes sense that falling interest rates can partly hide rising energy prices.\nA trend toward lower interest rates was needed starting in 1981 because the US could no longer produce large amounts of crude oil that were profitable to sell at less than $20 per barrel, in inflation-adjusted prices. Lower interest rates made adding debt more feasible. This added debt could smooth the transition to an economy that was less dependent on oil, now that it was high-priced. The lower interest rates helped all segments of the economy adjust to the new higher cost of oil and other fuels.\n[6] The US experience shows precisely how helpful having a rapidly growing supply of inexpensive to produce oil could be to an economy.\nUS oil production, excluding Alaska (blue “remainder” in Figure 7), rose rapidly after 1945 but began to decline not long after hitting a peak in 1970. This growing oil production had temporarily provided a huge boost to the US economy.\n\nFigure 7. US crude oil production, based on data of the US Energy Information Administration.\nUp until almost 1970, US oil production was rising rapidly. Figure 8 shows that during this period, incomes of both the bottom 90% of workers and the top 10% of workers increased rapidly. Over a period of about 20 years, incomes for both groups grew by about 80%, after adjusting for inflation. On average, workers were about 4% better off each year, with the rapid growth in very inexpensive-to-produce oil, all of which stayed in the US (rather than being exported). US imports of inexpensive-to-produce oil also grew during this period.\nOnce oil prices were higher, income growth for both the lower 90% and the top 10% slowed. With the changes made starting in 1981, wage disparities quickly started to grow. There suddenly became a need for new, high-tech approaches that used less oil. But these changes were more helpful to the managers and highly educated workers than the bottom 90% of workers.\n\nFigure 8. Chart comparing income gains by the top 10% to income gains by the bottom 90% by economist Emmanuel Saez. Based on an analysis of IRS data, published in Forbes.\n[7] Most of the world’s cheap-to-extract oil sources have now been exhausted. Our problem is that the world market cannot get prices to rise high enough for producers to cover all of their expenses, including taxes.\nBased on my analysis, the world price of oil would need to be at least $120 per barrel to cover all of the costs it needs to cover. The costs that need to be covered include more items than an oil company would normally include in its costs estimates. The company needs to develop new fields to compensate for the ones that are being exhausted. It needs to pay interest on its debt. It also needs to pay dividends to its shareholders. In the case of shale producers, the price needs to be high enough that production outside of “sweet spots” can be carried on profitably.\nFor oil exporters, it is especially important that the sales price be high enough so that the government of the oil exporting country can collect adequate tax revenue. Otherwise, the exporting country will not be able to maintain food subsidy programs that the population depends on and public works programs that provide jobs.\n[8] The world can add more debt, but it is difficult to see how the debt bubble that is created will really pull the world economy forward rapidly enough to keep the debt bubble from collapsing in the next year or two.\nMany models are based on the assumption that the economy can easily go back to the growth rate it had, prior to COVID-19. There are several reasons why this seems unlikely:\n\nMany parts of the world economy weren’t really growing very rapidly prior to the pandemic. For example, shopping malls were doing poorly. Many airlines were in financial difficulty. Private passenger auto sales in China reached a peak in 2017 and have declined every year since.\nAt the low oil prices prior to the pandemic, many oil producers (including the US) would need to reduce their production. The 2019 peak in shale production (shown in Figure 7) may prove to be the peak in US oil production because of low prices.\nOnce people became accustomed to working from home, many of them really do not want to go back to a long commute.\nIt is not clear that the pandemic is really going away, now that we have kept it around this long. New mutations keep appearing. Vaccines aren’t 100% effective.\nAs I showed in Figure 5, adding more debt seems to be a very inefficient way of digging the economy out of a hole. What is really needed is a growing supply of oil that can be produced and sold profitably for less than $20 per barrel. Other types of energy need to be similarly inexpensive.\n\nI should note that intermittent wind and solar energy is not an adequate substitute for oil. It is not even an adequate substitute for “dispatchable” electricity production. It is simply an energy product that has been sufficiently subsidized that it can often make money for its producers. It also sounds good, if it is referred to as “clean energy.” Unfortunately, its true value is lower than its cost of production.\n[9] What’s Ahead?\nI expect that oil prices will rise a bit, but not enough to raise prices to the level producers require. Interest rates will continue to rise as governments around the world attempt more stimulus. With these higher interest rates and higher oil prices, businesses will do less and less well. This will slow the economy enough that debt defaults become a major problem. Within a few months to a year, the worldwide debt bubble will start to collapse, bringing oil prices down by more than 50%. Stock market prices and prices of buildings of all kinds will fall in inflation-adjusted dollars. Many bonds will prove to be worthless. There will be problems with empty shelves in stores and gasoline stations with no products to sell.\nPeople will start to see that while debt is a promise for the equivalent of future goods and services, it is not necessarily the case that those who make the promises will be able to stand behind these promises. Paper wealth generally can be expected to lose its value.\nI can imagine a situation, not too many years from now, whencountries everywhere will establish new currencies that are not as easily interchangeablewith other currencies as today’s currencies are. International trade will dramatically fall. The standard of living of most people will fall precipitously.\nI doubt that the new currencies will be electronic currencies. Keeping the electricity on is a difficult task in economies that increasingly need to rely solely on local resources. Electricity may be out for months at a time after an equipment failure or a storm. Having a currency that depends on electricity alone would be a poor idea.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":527,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":347988078,"gmtCreate":1618456353094,"gmtModify":1634292814268,"author":{"id":"3577186651876260","authorId":"3577186651876260","name":"KenKai","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577186651876260","idStr":"3577186651876260"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment my post ty!","listText":"Like and comment my post ty!","text":"Like and comment my post ty!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/347988078","repostId":"1150469902","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":472,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":347988776,"gmtCreate":1618456425395,"gmtModify":1634292813450,"author":{"id":"3577186651876260","authorId":"3577186651876260","name":"KenKai","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577186651876260","idStr":"3577186651876260"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$GameStop(GME)$</a>To the moon","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$GameStop(GME)$</a>To the moon","text":"$GameStop(GME)$To the moon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/347988776","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":605,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":348588532,"gmtCreate":1617941512026,"gmtModify":1634295617039,"author":{"id":"3577186651876260","authorId":"3577186651876260","name":"KenKai","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577186651876260","idStr":"3577186651876260"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment ty&nbsp;","listText":"Like and comment ty&nbsp;","text":"Like and comment ty","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/348588532","repostId":"1197846121","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":382,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":352930859,"gmtCreate":1616851165071,"gmtModify":1634523730563,"author":{"id":"3577186651876260","authorId":"3577186651876260","name":"KenKai","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577186651876260","idStr":"3577186651876260"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment&nbsp;my post ty!","listText":"Like and comment&nbsp;my post ty!","text":"Like and comment my post ty!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/352930859","repostId":"1141686975","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1141686975","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1616780260,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1141686975?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-27 01:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Zhihu Technology fall on its first day of trading<blockquote>知乎科技上市首日下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141686975","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Zhihu Technology shares opened at $8.02 each on Friday, about 15.6% lower than the company’s IPO pri","content":"<p>Zhihu Technology shares opened at $8.02&nbsp;each on Friday, about 15.6% lower than the company’s IPO price&nbsp;$9.5.Zhihu IPO prices at low end of the range, valuing company at about $5.3 billion.</p><p><blockquote>知乎科技股价周五开盘价为每股8.02美元，比该公司9.5美元的IPO价格低约15.6%。知乎IPO价格处于区间低端，公司估值约为53亿美元。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4672a089b4ebb0a889cbfbeb32b48594\" tg-width=\"1920\" tg-height=\"959\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Zhihu Inc.&nbsp;announced Friday the pricing of its initial public offering, at $9.50 per American depositary share, which was at the low end of the expected range. The China-based online content company offered 55 million ADS in the IPO to raise $522.5 million, while the pricing valued the company at about $5.31 billion.</p><p><blockquote>知乎公司周五宣布其首次公开募股定价为每股美国存托股9.50美元，处于预期区间的低端。这家总部位于中国的在线内容公司在IPO中发行了5500万份ADS，筹集了5.225亿美元，而该公司的定价约为53.1亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Zhihu has a similar business model as Quora where millions of people ask questions and exchange their views and experiences. Zhihu has become the largest online question and answer community in China.</p><p><blockquote>知乎的商业模式与Quora相似，数百万人提问并交流他们的观点和经验。知乎已经成为国内最大的在线问答社区。</blockquote></p><p><b>Sales Breakdown</b></p><p><blockquote><b>销售明细</b></blockquote></p><p>Advertising and paid memberships account for the biggest portion of the company's revenues. Advertising accounted for 86.1% and 62.4% of total revenues in 2019 and 2020, respectively. We estimate advertising as a percentage of revenues to gradually decline in the next five years as it is offset by the faster growing Paid Memberships and Content Commerce Solutions. We estimate advertising as a percentage of sales to decline to 34.1% in 2021 and 22.3% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>广告和付费会员占公司收入的最大部分。2019年和2020年，广告分别占总收入的86.1%和62.4%。我们预计广告占收入的百分比将在未来五年内逐渐下降，因为它被更快增长的付费会员和内容商务解决方案所抵消。我们预计广告占销售额的百分比将在2021年下降至34.1%，在2025年下降至22.3%。</blockquote></p><p>Paid Memberships represented 13.1% of total revenues in 2019, which increased to 23.7% of total revenues in 2020. We have assumed Paid Membership revenues as a percentage of total revenues to increase to 31.5% in 2021 and 37.8% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>付费会员占2019年总收入的13.1%，2020年增至总收入的23.7%。我们假设付费会员收入占总收入的百分比将在2021年和2025年分别增至31.5%和37.8%。</blockquote></p><p>Content Commerce Solutions and Other sales also increased sharply in 2020. Content Commerce Solutions revenues jumped from 0.6 million RMB in 2019 to 135.8 million RMB in 2020. In early 2020, the company launched Content-Commerce solutions, which provide merchants and brands a one-stop shop for all of their sales and marketing needs, including marketing plans. We have assumed Content Commerce Solutions as a percentage of total revenue to jump from 10% in 2020 to 17.8% in 2021 and 32.3% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，内容商务解决方案和其他销售额也大幅增长。内容商务解决方案收入从2019年的60万元跃升至2020年的1.358亿元。2020年初，该公司推出了内容商务解决方案，为商家和品牌提供一站式服务，满足其所有销售和营销需求，包括营销计划。我们假设内容商务解决方案占总收入的百分比将从2020年的10%跃升至2021年的17.8%和2025年的32.3%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Gross Margins</b></p><p><blockquote><b>毛利率</b></blockquote></p><p>The company's gross margins improved from 46.6% in 2019 to 56.0% in 2020, driven by an overall improving business scalability. We have assumed further improvements in gross margins to 57.4% in 2021 and 62.3% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>在业务可扩展性整体提升的推动下，公司毛利率从2019年的46.6%提升至2020年的56.0%。我们假设毛利率在2021年和2025年进一步提高至57.4%和62.3%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Total Operating Expenses and Operating Margins</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总营业费用和营业利润率</b></blockquote></p><p>Total operating expenses as a percentage of revenues declined significantly from 204.4% in 2019 to 100.6% in 2020. We expect this ratio to improve further to 79% in 2021, 69.2% in 2022, and 57.2% in 2025. The bulk of the improvements in operating expenses is coming from lower SG&amp;A and R&amp;D expenses as a percentage of revenues in the next five years.</p><p><blockquote>总运营费用占收入的百分比由2019年的204.4%大幅下降至2020年的100.6%。我们预计这一比例将在2021年进一步提高至79%，2022年为69.2%，2025年为57.2%。运营费用的改善大部分来自未来五年SG&amp;A和R&amp;D费用占收入百分比的降低。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c019cc86f4d4c1d9ffe15d3b4a4bfa75\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef629be32d2c34d625cb287ad648206d\" tg-width=\"757\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9561a02993fbc88c2cad88e68c08730\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"485\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Company Background</b></p><p><blockquote><b>公司背景</b></blockquote></p><p>At the end of 2020, Zhihu had more than 43.1 million cumulative content creators that contributed 315 million questions and answers. In 4Q 2020, the company had 75.7 million average monthly active users, up 33% YoY. One of the key strengths of the company is that it is recognized as one of the most trustworthy online content communities and regarded as providing one of the highest quality content in China. Zhihu has tried to capitalize on its large user base to provide numerous multimedia functions including live streaming, e-commerce, online education, and other video content.</p><p><blockquote>2020年底，知乎累计有超过4310万内容创作者，贡献了3.15亿个问答。2020年第四季度，该公司平均月活跃用户为7570万，同比增长33%。该公司的关键优势之一是，它被公认为最值得信赖的在线内容社区之一，并被视为提供中国最优质的内容之一。知乎试图利用其庞大的用户群提供众多多媒体功能，包括直播、电子商务、在线教育和其他视频内容。</blockquote></p><p>In August 2019, Zhihu received $434 million in funding from leading investors including Baidu and Kuaishou Technology, valuing the company at $3.5 billion. Given that the company had $97 million in sales in 2019, this would suggest a P/S valuation multiple of 36x. If we take the same P/S multiple apply to the company's 2020 sales of $207 million, this would suggest an implied valuation of $7.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>2019年8月，知乎获得了包括百度和快手科技在内的领先投资者4.34亿美元的融资，公司估值为35亿美元。鉴于该公司2019年的销售额为9700万美元，这意味着市盈率估值倍数为36倍。如果我们将相同的市盈率倍数应用于该公司2020年2.07亿美元的销售额，这将表明隐含估值为75亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Zhihu was originally developed as a question and answer online community in 2010. At the end of 2020, there were a total of 315 million Q&amp;As spanning more than 1,000 verticals and 571,000 topics. Zhihu is one of the top five comprehensive online content communities in China, in terms of average mobile MAUs and revenue in 2020. The company uses artificial intelligence, cloud, and big data algorithms to improve the optimization of its content and services.</p><p><blockquote>知乎最初是在2010年作为一个问答在线社区开发的。截至2020年底，共有3.15亿次问答，跨越1000多个垂直领域和57.1万个主题。按2020年平均移动月活跃用户数及收入计，知乎是中国五大综合在线内容社区之一。该公司使用人工智能、云和大数据算法来提高其内容和服务的优化。</blockquote></p><p><b>Major Shareholders of Zhihu</b></p><p><blockquote><b>知乎主要股东</b></blockquote></p><p>The founder &amp; CEO&nbsp;Zhou Yuanowns an 8.2% stake in the company (but 46.6% voting rights). Sinovation Ventures owns a 13.1% stake and Tencent Holdings Ltd. owns a 12.3% stake of Zhihu.</p><p><blockquote>创始人兼首席执行官周元拥有该公司8.2%的股份（但拥有46.6%的投票权）。创新工场拥有知乎13.1%的股份，腾讯控股控股有限公司拥有知乎12.3%的股份。</blockquote></p><p><b>Key Demographics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关键人口统计</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>The diagram below provides some of the key demographics of Zhihu user base. Males accounted for 56.9% of total users. People under 30 years old accounted for 78.7% of its total user base. Tier I and new tier I cities represented 52.6% of total user base. Many of the users of Zhihu are students and white collar professionals.</p><p><blockquote>下图提供了知乎用户群的一些关键人口统计数据。男性用户占总用户的56.9%。30岁以下人群占其总用户群的78.7%。一线及新一线城市佔总用户群的52.6%。知乎的很多用户都是学生和白领专业人士。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/524d689472daad1c99491d74dfdbfe24\" tg-width=\"295\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Revenue Breakdown</b></p><p><blockquote><b>收入明细</b></blockquote></p><p>Advertising and paid memberships account for the biggest portion of the company's revenues. Advertising accounted for 86.1% and 62.4% of total revenues in 2019 and 2020, respectively. The company's advertising revenue is mainly driven by its MAUs and advertising revenue per MAU. The company's MAUs increased by 42.7% YoY to 68.5 million in 2020. The company started its online advertising business in 2016 and introduced paid content in 2018.</p><p><blockquote>广告和付费会员占公司收入的最大部分。2019年和2020年，广告分别占总收入的86.1%和62.4%。该公司的广告收入主要由其月活跃用户数和每个月活跃用户数的广告收入推动。2020年，公司月活跃用户数同比增长42.7%至6850万。该公司于2016年开始在线广告业务，并于2018年引入付费内容。</blockquote></p><p>Paid memberships represented 13.1% of total revenues in 2019, which increased to 23.7% of total revenues in 2020. Average monthly members jumped by 311.5% YoY to 2.36 million in 2020, which is a testament of an increasing number of customers that value the premium content available on Zhihu.</p><p><blockquote>付费会员占2019年总收入的13.1%，2020年增至总收入的23.7%。2020年，月均会员同比增长311.5%至236万，这证明越来越多的客户重视知乎上的优质内容。</blockquote></p><p>In March 2019, the company introduced the Yan Selection membership program, making it the first payment-based questions &amp; answers community. It provides its members with unlimited access to about 3.4 million paid content including online lectures, columns, audio books, and e-journals. This is one of the biggest strengths of the company as it shows how high quality data and content can generate serious amount of revenues and it also provides a more steady monthly revenue inflow.</p><p><blockquote>2019年3月，公司推出Yan Selection会员计划，使其成为第一个基于付费的问答社区。它为会员提供了对约340万个付费内容的无限制访问，包括在线讲座、专栏、有声读物和电子期刊。这是该公司最大的优势之一，因为它显示了高质量的数据和内容如何能够产生大量收入，并且还提供了更稳定的每月收入流入。</blockquote></p><p>Content Commerce Solutions and Other sales also increased sharply in 2020. Content Commerce Solutions revenues jumped from 0.6 million RMB in 2019 to 135.8 million RMB in 2020. In early 2020, the company launched Content-Commerce solutions, which provide merchants and brands a one-stop shop for all of their sales and marketing needs, including marketing plans, assigning the most relevant content creators to interested users, and facilitating content creation.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，内容商务解决方案和其他销售额也大幅增长。内容商务解决方案收入从2019年的60万元跃升至2020年的1.358亿元。2020年初，该公司推出了内容商务解决方案，为商家和品牌提供一站式服务，满足其所有销售和营销需求，包括营销计划、为感兴趣的用户分配最相关的内容创作者以及促进内容创作。</blockquote></p><p>China's content-commerce solution market is expected to be one of the fastest growing sectors in the next several years. According to CIC Consultancy, China's content-commerce solution market is expected to enjoy a strong CAGR growth of 46.4% from 2019 to 2025 (112.3 billion RMB).</p><p><blockquote>中国的内容商务解决方案市场预计将成为未来几年增长最快的行业之一。根据灼识谘询的资料，中国内容商务解决方案市场预期于2019年至2025年将享有46.4%的强劲复合年增长率（1,123亿元人民币）。</blockquote></p><p><b>Market Opportunities</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Online Content Communities Market Size</b></p><p><blockquote><b>中国在线内容社区市场规模</b></blockquote></p><p>Online content communities refer to UGC (user generated content)-focused (including PUGC (professional user generated content) focused online content market players where content creators are also users, who are actively engaged within the communities. The content communities generally can stimulate higher level of user engagement, more interactive user experience, and enjoy lower content cost, compared to PGC (professionally generated content) players. PGC is content created by the branded company or organization.</p><p><blockquote>在线内容社区是指专注于UGC（用户生成内容）（包括PUGC（专业用户生成内容））的在线内容市场参与者，其中内容创作者也是用户，他们积极参与社区。与PGC（专业生成内容）玩家相比，内容社区通常可以激发更高水平的用户参与度、更具互动性的用户体验，并享受更低的内容成本。PGC是由品牌公司或组织创建的内容。</blockquote></p><p>China's online content communities market size increased from 38.6 billion RMB in 2015 to 275.8 billion RMB in 2019 and is further expected to rise to 1.3 trillion RMB in 2025, representing a CAGR of 30.3% from 2019 to 2025, which is higher than the overall online content market growth.</p><p><blockquote>中国在线内容社区市场规模由2015年的386亿元人民币增至2019年的2758亿元人民币，预计将进一步增至2025年的1.3万亿元人民币，2019年至2025年的复合年增长率为30.3%，高于整体在线内容市场增长。</blockquote></p><p>China's online content community market has more diversified monetization channels including online advertising, paid membership, content e-commerce, content-commerce solutions, virtual gifting in live streaming, online games, and online education services. In comparison, the US online content community's monetization is mainly through advertising.</p><p><blockquote>中国在线内容社区市场拥有更多元化的变现渠道，包括在线广告、付费会员、内容电商、内容电商解决方案、直播虚拟礼品、在线游戏及在线教育服务。相比之下，美国在线内容社区的变现主要是通过广告。</blockquote></p><p>One of the major positives about the company is the growing trend of more Chinese consumers that are willing to pay money for higher quality content. The number of paying users in China’s online content communities is expected to increase at a CAGR of 17.1% between 2019 and 2025, which means an increase of 360.4 million extra paying users of online content communities to 588.2 million in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的一个主要积极因素是，越来越多的中国消费者愿意为更高质量的内容付费。预计2019年至2025年期间，中国在线内容社区的付费用户数量将以17.1%的复合年增长率增长，这意味着在线内容社区的额外付费用户将增加3.604亿至2025年的5.882亿。</blockquote></p><p><b>China's Online Content Market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>中国在线内容市场</b></blockquote></p><p>China's online content market tripled from 2015 to reach 1.2 trillion RMB in 2019. This market is expected to increase to 3.7 trillion RMB in 2025, representing a CAGR of 21.4% from 2019 to 2025.</p><p><blockquote>中国在线内容市场较2015年增长两倍，2019年达到1.2万亿人民币。预计该市场将于2025年增至3.7万亿元人民币，2019年至2025年的复合年增长率为21.4%。</blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Online Content Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2015年至2025年（估计）中国在线内容市场规模（按收入计）</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69a7db9cacf26245273702a255aabdb8\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Market Size of China’s Online Content Communities (in terms of revenue),2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>二零一五年至二零二五年（估计）中国在线内容社区的市场规模（以收益计）</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aee42792caf4aa2cbdcd17f757a75727\" tg-width=\"584\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Paid Membership Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>中国付费会员市场规模（以收入计），2015年至2025年（估计）</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77ff121d78cb1dd922d524a78570152e\" tg-width=\"520\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Content-commerce solutions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>内容商务解决方案</b></blockquote></p><p>To provide integrated marketing services, the online content communities provide content-commerce solutions for content creation, content distribution, and content conversion. The company provides integrated content-commerce solutions, providing merchants and brands one-stop services for all their sales and marketing needs, from making marketing plans, facilitating content creation, assigning the most relevant content creators, to distributing to the interested users. China's content commerce solution market is expected to grow from 11.4 billion RMB in 2019 to 112.3 billion RMB in 2025, at a CAGR of 46.4%.</p><p><blockquote>为了提供整合营销服务，在线内容社区为内容创建、内容分发和内容转换提供内容商务解决方案。该公司提供综合内容商务解决方案，为商家和品牌的所有销售和营销需求提供一站式服务，从制定营销计划、促进内容创作、分配最相关的内容创作者，到向感兴趣的用户分发。中国内容商务解决方案市场预期将由2019年的人民币114亿元增长至2025年的人民币1123亿元，复合年增长率为46.4%。</blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Content-Commerce Solution Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>二零一五年至二零二五年（估计）中国内容商务解决方案市场规模（以收入计）</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01a230d3fb2d4cf4aeeebfd5c3c691c3\" tg-width=\"520\" tg-height=\"269\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Zhihu Technology fall on its first day of trading<blockquote>知乎科技上市首日下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nZhihu Technology fall on its first day of trading<blockquote>知乎科技上市首日下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-27 01:37</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Zhihu Technology shares opened at $8.02&nbsp;each on Friday, about 15.6% lower than the company’s IPO price&nbsp;$9.5.Zhihu IPO prices at low end of the range, valuing company at about $5.3 billion.</p><p><blockquote>知乎科技股价周五开盘价为每股8.02美元，比该公司9.5美元的IPO价格低约15.6%。知乎IPO价格处于区间低端，公司估值约为53亿美元。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4672a089b4ebb0a889cbfbeb32b48594\" tg-width=\"1920\" tg-height=\"959\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Zhihu Inc.&nbsp;announced Friday the pricing of its initial public offering, at $9.50 per American depositary share, which was at the low end of the expected range. The China-based online content company offered 55 million ADS in the IPO to raise $522.5 million, while the pricing valued the company at about $5.31 billion.</p><p><blockquote>知乎公司周五宣布其首次公开募股定价为每股美国存托股9.50美元，处于预期区间的低端。这家总部位于中国的在线内容公司在IPO中发行了5500万份ADS，筹集了5.225亿美元，而该公司的定价约为53.1亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Zhihu has a similar business model as Quora where millions of people ask questions and exchange their views and experiences. Zhihu has become the largest online question and answer community in China.</p><p><blockquote>知乎的商业模式与Quora相似，数百万人提问并交流他们的观点和经验。知乎已经成为国内最大的在线问答社区。</blockquote></p><p><b>Sales Breakdown</b></p><p><blockquote><b>销售明细</b></blockquote></p><p>Advertising and paid memberships account for the biggest portion of the company's revenues. Advertising accounted for 86.1% and 62.4% of total revenues in 2019 and 2020, respectively. We estimate advertising as a percentage of revenues to gradually decline in the next five years as it is offset by the faster growing Paid Memberships and Content Commerce Solutions. We estimate advertising as a percentage of sales to decline to 34.1% in 2021 and 22.3% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>广告和付费会员占公司收入的最大部分。2019年和2020年，广告分别占总收入的86.1%和62.4%。我们预计广告占收入的百分比将在未来五年内逐渐下降，因为它被更快增长的付费会员和内容商务解决方案所抵消。我们预计广告占销售额的百分比将在2021年下降至34.1%，在2025年下降至22.3%。</blockquote></p><p>Paid Memberships represented 13.1% of total revenues in 2019, which increased to 23.7% of total revenues in 2020. We have assumed Paid Membership revenues as a percentage of total revenues to increase to 31.5% in 2021 and 37.8% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>付费会员占2019年总收入的13.1%，2020年增至总收入的23.7%。我们假设付费会员收入占总收入的百分比将在2021年和2025年分别增至31.5%和37.8%。</blockquote></p><p>Content Commerce Solutions and Other sales also increased sharply in 2020. Content Commerce Solutions revenues jumped from 0.6 million RMB in 2019 to 135.8 million RMB in 2020. In early 2020, the company launched Content-Commerce solutions, which provide merchants and brands a one-stop shop for all of their sales and marketing needs, including marketing plans. We have assumed Content Commerce Solutions as a percentage of total revenue to jump from 10% in 2020 to 17.8% in 2021 and 32.3% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，内容商务解决方案和其他销售额也大幅增长。内容商务解决方案收入从2019年的60万元跃升至2020年的1.358亿元。2020年初，该公司推出了内容商务解决方案，为商家和品牌提供一站式服务，满足其所有销售和营销需求，包括营销计划。我们假设内容商务解决方案占总收入的百分比将从2020年的10%跃升至2021年的17.8%和2025年的32.3%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Gross Margins</b></p><p><blockquote><b>毛利率</b></blockquote></p><p>The company's gross margins improved from 46.6% in 2019 to 56.0% in 2020, driven by an overall improving business scalability. We have assumed further improvements in gross margins to 57.4% in 2021 and 62.3% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>在业务可扩展性整体提升的推动下，公司毛利率从2019年的46.6%提升至2020年的56.0%。我们假设毛利率在2021年和2025年进一步提高至57.4%和62.3%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Total Operating Expenses and Operating Margins</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总营业费用和营业利润率</b></blockquote></p><p>Total operating expenses as a percentage of revenues declined significantly from 204.4% in 2019 to 100.6% in 2020. We expect this ratio to improve further to 79% in 2021, 69.2% in 2022, and 57.2% in 2025. The bulk of the improvements in operating expenses is coming from lower SG&amp;A and R&amp;D expenses as a percentage of revenues in the next five years.</p><p><blockquote>总运营费用占收入的百分比由2019年的204.4%大幅下降至2020年的100.6%。我们预计这一比例将在2021年进一步提高至79%，2022年为69.2%，2025年为57.2%。运营费用的改善大部分来自未来五年SG&amp;A和R&amp;D费用占收入百分比的降低。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c019cc86f4d4c1d9ffe15d3b4a4bfa75\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef629be32d2c34d625cb287ad648206d\" tg-width=\"757\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9561a02993fbc88c2cad88e68c08730\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"485\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Company Background</b></p><p><blockquote><b>公司背景</b></blockquote></p><p>At the end of 2020, Zhihu had more than 43.1 million cumulative content creators that contributed 315 million questions and answers. In 4Q 2020, the company had 75.7 million average monthly active users, up 33% YoY. One of the key strengths of the company is that it is recognized as one of the most trustworthy online content communities and regarded as providing one of the highest quality content in China. Zhihu has tried to capitalize on its large user base to provide numerous multimedia functions including live streaming, e-commerce, online education, and other video content.</p><p><blockquote>2020年底，知乎累计有超过4310万内容创作者，贡献了3.15亿个问答。2020年第四季度，该公司平均月活跃用户为7570万，同比增长33%。该公司的关键优势之一是，它被公认为最值得信赖的在线内容社区之一，并被视为提供中国最优质的内容之一。知乎试图利用其庞大的用户群提供众多多媒体功能，包括直播、电子商务、在线教育和其他视频内容。</blockquote></p><p>In August 2019, Zhihu received $434 million in funding from leading investors including Baidu and Kuaishou Technology, valuing the company at $3.5 billion. Given that the company had $97 million in sales in 2019, this would suggest a P/S valuation multiple of 36x. If we take the same P/S multiple apply to the company's 2020 sales of $207 million, this would suggest an implied valuation of $7.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>2019年8月，知乎获得了包括百度和快手科技在内的领先投资者4.34亿美元的融资，公司估值为35亿美元。鉴于该公司2019年的销售额为9700万美元，这意味着市盈率估值倍数为36倍。如果我们将相同的市盈率倍数应用于该公司2020年2.07亿美元的销售额，这将表明隐含估值为75亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Zhihu was originally developed as a question and answer online community in 2010. At the end of 2020, there were a total of 315 million Q&amp;As spanning more than 1,000 verticals and 571,000 topics. Zhihu is one of the top five comprehensive online content communities in China, in terms of average mobile MAUs and revenue in 2020. The company uses artificial intelligence, cloud, and big data algorithms to improve the optimization of its content and services.</p><p><blockquote>知乎最初是在2010年作为一个问答在线社区开发的。截至2020年底，共有3.15亿次问答，跨越1000多个垂直领域和57.1万个主题。按2020年平均移动月活跃用户数及收入计，知乎是中国五大综合在线内容社区之一。该公司使用人工智能、云和大数据算法来提高其内容和服务的优化。</blockquote></p><p><b>Major Shareholders of Zhihu</b></p><p><blockquote><b>知乎主要股东</b></blockquote></p><p>The founder &amp; CEO&nbsp;Zhou Yuanowns an 8.2% stake in the company (but 46.6% voting rights). Sinovation Ventures owns a 13.1% stake and Tencent Holdings Ltd. owns a 12.3% stake of Zhihu.</p><p><blockquote>创始人兼首席执行官周元拥有该公司8.2%的股份（但拥有46.6%的投票权）。创新工场拥有知乎13.1%的股份，腾讯控股控股有限公司拥有知乎12.3%的股份。</blockquote></p><p><b>Key Demographics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关键人口统计</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>The diagram below provides some of the key demographics of Zhihu user base. Males accounted for 56.9% of total users. People under 30 years old accounted for 78.7% of its total user base. Tier I and new tier I cities represented 52.6% of total user base. Many of the users of Zhihu are students and white collar professionals.</p><p><blockquote>下图提供了知乎用户群的一些关键人口统计数据。男性用户占总用户的56.9%。30岁以下人群占其总用户群的78.7%。一线及新一线城市佔总用户群的52.6%。知乎的很多用户都是学生和白领专业人士。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/524d689472daad1c99491d74dfdbfe24\" tg-width=\"295\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Revenue Breakdown</b></p><p><blockquote><b>收入明细</b></blockquote></p><p>Advertising and paid memberships account for the biggest portion of the company's revenues. Advertising accounted for 86.1% and 62.4% of total revenues in 2019 and 2020, respectively. The company's advertising revenue is mainly driven by its MAUs and advertising revenue per MAU. The company's MAUs increased by 42.7% YoY to 68.5 million in 2020. The company started its online advertising business in 2016 and introduced paid content in 2018.</p><p><blockquote>广告和付费会员占公司收入的最大部分。2019年和2020年，广告分别占总收入的86.1%和62.4%。该公司的广告收入主要由其月活跃用户数和每个月活跃用户数的广告收入推动。2020年，公司月活跃用户数同比增长42.7%至6850万。该公司于2016年开始在线广告业务，并于2018年引入付费内容。</blockquote></p><p>Paid memberships represented 13.1% of total revenues in 2019, which increased to 23.7% of total revenues in 2020. Average monthly members jumped by 311.5% YoY to 2.36 million in 2020, which is a testament of an increasing number of customers that value the premium content available on Zhihu.</p><p><blockquote>付费会员占2019年总收入的13.1%，2020年增至总收入的23.7%。2020年，月均会员同比增长311.5%至236万，这证明越来越多的客户重视知乎上的优质内容。</blockquote></p><p>In March 2019, the company introduced the Yan Selection membership program, making it the first payment-based questions &amp; answers community. It provides its members with unlimited access to about 3.4 million paid content including online lectures, columns, audio books, and e-journals. This is one of the biggest strengths of the company as it shows how high quality data and content can generate serious amount of revenues and it also provides a more steady monthly revenue inflow.</p><p><blockquote>2019年3月，公司推出Yan Selection会员计划，使其成为第一个基于付费的问答社区。它为会员提供了对约340万个付费内容的无限制访问，包括在线讲座、专栏、有声读物和电子期刊。这是该公司最大的优势之一，因为它显示了高质量的数据和内容如何能够产生大量收入，并且还提供了更稳定的每月收入流入。</blockquote></p><p>Content Commerce Solutions and Other sales also increased sharply in 2020. Content Commerce Solutions revenues jumped from 0.6 million RMB in 2019 to 135.8 million RMB in 2020. In early 2020, the company launched Content-Commerce solutions, which provide merchants and brands a one-stop shop for all of their sales and marketing needs, including marketing plans, assigning the most relevant content creators to interested users, and facilitating content creation.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，内容商务解决方案和其他销售额也大幅增长。内容商务解决方案收入从2019年的60万元跃升至2020年的1.358亿元。2020年初，该公司推出了内容商务解决方案，为商家和品牌提供一站式服务，满足其所有销售和营销需求，包括营销计划、为感兴趣的用户分配最相关的内容创作者以及促进内容创作。</blockquote></p><p>China's content-commerce solution market is expected to be one of the fastest growing sectors in the next several years. According to CIC Consultancy, China's content-commerce solution market is expected to enjoy a strong CAGR growth of 46.4% from 2019 to 2025 (112.3 billion RMB).</p><p><blockquote>中国的内容商务解决方案市场预计将成为未来几年增长最快的行业之一。根据灼识谘询的资料，中国内容商务解决方案市场预期于2019年至2025年将享有46.4%的强劲复合年增长率（1,123亿元人民币）。</blockquote></p><p><b>Market Opportunities</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Online Content Communities Market Size</b></p><p><blockquote><b>中国在线内容社区市场规模</b></blockquote></p><p>Online content communities refer to UGC (user generated content)-focused (including PUGC (professional user generated content) focused online content market players where content creators are also users, who are actively engaged within the communities. The content communities generally can stimulate higher level of user engagement, more interactive user experience, and enjoy lower content cost, compared to PGC (professionally generated content) players. PGC is content created by the branded company or organization.</p><p><blockquote>在线内容社区是指专注于UGC（用户生成内容）（包括PUGC（专业用户生成内容））的在线内容市场参与者，其中内容创作者也是用户，他们积极参与社区。与PGC（专业生成内容）玩家相比，内容社区通常可以激发更高水平的用户参与度、更具互动性的用户体验，并享受更低的内容成本。PGC是由品牌公司或组织创建的内容。</blockquote></p><p>China's online content communities market size increased from 38.6 billion RMB in 2015 to 275.8 billion RMB in 2019 and is further expected to rise to 1.3 trillion RMB in 2025, representing a CAGR of 30.3% from 2019 to 2025, which is higher than the overall online content market growth.</p><p><blockquote>中国在线内容社区市场规模由2015年的386亿元人民币增至2019年的2758亿元人民币，预计将进一步增至2025年的1.3万亿元人民币，2019年至2025年的复合年增长率为30.3%，高于整体在线内容市场增长。</blockquote></p><p>China's online content community market has more diversified monetization channels including online advertising, paid membership, content e-commerce, content-commerce solutions, virtual gifting in live streaming, online games, and online education services. In comparison, the US online content community's monetization is mainly through advertising.</p><p><blockquote>中国在线内容社区市场拥有更多元化的变现渠道，包括在线广告、付费会员、内容电商、内容电商解决方案、直播虚拟礼品、在线游戏及在线教育服务。相比之下，美国在线内容社区的变现主要是通过广告。</blockquote></p><p>One of the major positives about the company is the growing trend of more Chinese consumers that are willing to pay money for higher quality content. The number of paying users in China’s online content communities is expected to increase at a CAGR of 17.1% between 2019 and 2025, which means an increase of 360.4 million extra paying users of online content communities to 588.2 million in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的一个主要积极因素是，越来越多的中国消费者愿意为更高质量的内容付费。预计2019年至2025年期间，中国在线内容社区的付费用户数量将以17.1%的复合年增长率增长，这意味着在线内容社区的额外付费用户将增加3.604亿至2025年的5.882亿。</blockquote></p><p><b>China's Online Content Market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>中国在线内容市场</b></blockquote></p><p>China's online content market tripled from 2015 to reach 1.2 trillion RMB in 2019. This market is expected to increase to 3.7 trillion RMB in 2025, representing a CAGR of 21.4% from 2019 to 2025.</p><p><blockquote>中国在线内容市场较2015年增长两倍，2019年达到1.2万亿人民币。预计该市场将于2025年增至3.7万亿元人民币，2019年至2025年的复合年增长率为21.4%。</blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Online Content Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2015年至2025年（估计）中国在线内容市场规模（按收入计）</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69a7db9cacf26245273702a255aabdb8\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Market Size of China’s Online Content Communities (in terms of revenue),2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>二零一五年至二零二五年（估计）中国在线内容社区的市场规模（以收益计）</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aee42792caf4aa2cbdcd17f757a75727\" tg-width=\"584\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Paid Membership Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>中国付费会员市场规模（以收入计），2015年至2025年（估计）</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77ff121d78cb1dd922d524a78570152e\" tg-width=\"520\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Content-commerce solutions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>内容商务解决方案</b></blockquote></p><p>To provide integrated marketing services, the online content communities provide content-commerce solutions for content creation, content distribution, and content conversion. The company provides integrated content-commerce solutions, providing merchants and brands one-stop services for all their sales and marketing needs, from making marketing plans, facilitating content creation, assigning the most relevant content creators, to distributing to the interested users. China's content commerce solution market is expected to grow from 11.4 billion RMB in 2019 to 112.3 billion RMB in 2025, at a CAGR of 46.4%.</p><p><blockquote>为了提供整合营销服务，在线内容社区为内容创建、内容分发和内容转换提供内容商务解决方案。该公司提供综合内容商务解决方案，为商家和品牌的所有销售和营销需求提供一站式服务，从制定营销计划、促进内容创作、分配最相关的内容创作者，到向感兴趣的用户分发。中国内容商务解决方案市场预期将由2019年的人民币114亿元增长至2025年的人民币1123亿元，复合年增长率为46.4%。</blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Content-Commerce Solution Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>二零一五年至二零二五年（估计）中国内容商务解决方案市场规模（以收入计）</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01a230d3fb2d4cf4aeeebfd5c3c691c3\" tg-width=\"520\" tg-height=\"269\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ZH":"知乎"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141686975","content_text":"Zhihu Technology shares opened at $8.02 each on Friday, about 15.6% lower than the company’s IPO price $9.5.Zhihu IPO prices at low end of the range, valuing company at about $5.3 billion.Zhihu Inc. announced Friday the pricing of its initial public offering, at $9.50 per American depositary share, which was at the low end of the expected range. The China-based online content company offered 55 million ADS in the IPO to raise $522.5 million, while the pricing valued the company at about $5.31 billion.Zhihu has a similar business model as Quora where millions of people ask questions and exchange their views and experiences. Zhihu has become the largest online question and answer community in China.Sales BreakdownAdvertising and paid memberships account for the biggest portion of the company's revenues. Advertising accounted for 86.1% and 62.4% of total revenues in 2019 and 2020, respectively. We estimate advertising as a percentage of revenues to gradually decline in the next five years as it is offset by the faster growing Paid Memberships and Content Commerce Solutions. We estimate advertising as a percentage of sales to decline to 34.1% in 2021 and 22.3% in 2025.Paid Memberships represented 13.1% of total revenues in 2019, which increased to 23.7% of total revenues in 2020. We have assumed Paid Membership revenues as a percentage of total revenues to increase to 31.5% in 2021 and 37.8% in 2025.Content Commerce Solutions and Other sales also increased sharply in 2020. Content Commerce Solutions revenues jumped from 0.6 million RMB in 2019 to 135.8 million RMB in 2020. In early 2020, the company launched Content-Commerce solutions, which provide merchants and brands a one-stop shop for all of their sales and marketing needs, including marketing plans. We have assumed Content Commerce Solutions as a percentage of total revenue to jump from 10% in 2020 to 17.8% in 2021 and 32.3% in 2025.Gross MarginsThe company's gross margins improved from 46.6% in 2019 to 56.0% in 2020, driven by an overall improving business scalability. We have assumed further improvements in gross margins to 57.4% in 2021 and 62.3% in 2025.Total Operating Expenses and Operating MarginsTotal operating expenses as a percentage of revenues declined significantly from 204.4% in 2019 to 100.6% in 2020. We expect this ratio to improve further to 79% in 2021, 69.2% in 2022, and 57.2% in 2025. The bulk of the improvements in operating expenses is coming from lower SG&A and R&D expenses as a percentage of revenues in the next five years.Company BackgroundAt the end of 2020, Zhihu had more than 43.1 million cumulative content creators that contributed 315 million questions and answers. In 4Q 2020, the company had 75.7 million average monthly active users, up 33% YoY. One of the key strengths of the company is that it is recognized as one of the most trustworthy online content communities and regarded as providing one of the highest quality content in China. Zhihu has tried to capitalize on its large user base to provide numerous multimedia functions including live streaming, e-commerce, online education, and other video content.In August 2019, Zhihu received $434 million in funding from leading investors including Baidu and Kuaishou Technology, valuing the company at $3.5 billion. Given that the company had $97 million in sales in 2019, this would suggest a P/S valuation multiple of 36x. If we take the same P/S multiple apply to the company's 2020 sales of $207 million, this would suggest an implied valuation of $7.5 billion.Zhihu was originally developed as a question and answer online community in 2010. At the end of 2020, there were a total of 315 million Q&As spanning more than 1,000 verticals and 571,000 topics. Zhihu is one of the top five comprehensive online content communities in China, in terms of average mobile MAUs and revenue in 2020. The company uses artificial intelligence, cloud, and big data algorithms to improve the optimization of its content and services.Major Shareholders of ZhihuThe founder & CEO Zhou Yuanowns an 8.2% stake in the company (but 46.6% voting rights). Sinovation Ventures owns a 13.1% stake and Tencent Holdings Ltd. owns a 12.3% stake of Zhihu.Key DemographicsThe diagram below provides some of the key demographics of Zhihu user base. Males accounted for 56.9% of total users. People under 30 years old accounted for 78.7% of its total user base. Tier I and new tier I cities represented 52.6% of total user base. Many of the users of Zhihu are students and white collar professionals.Revenue BreakdownAdvertising and paid memberships account for the biggest portion of the company's revenues. Advertising accounted for 86.1% and 62.4% of total revenues in 2019 and 2020, respectively. The company's advertising revenue is mainly driven by its MAUs and advertising revenue per MAU. The company's MAUs increased by 42.7% YoY to 68.5 million in 2020. The company started its online advertising business in 2016 and introduced paid content in 2018.Paid memberships represented 13.1% of total revenues in 2019, which increased to 23.7% of total revenues in 2020. Average monthly members jumped by 311.5% YoY to 2.36 million in 2020, which is a testament of an increasing number of customers that value the premium content available on Zhihu.In March 2019, the company introduced the Yan Selection membership program, making it the first payment-based questions & answers community. It provides its members with unlimited access to about 3.4 million paid content including online lectures, columns, audio books, and e-journals. This is one of the biggest strengths of the company as it shows how high quality data and content can generate serious amount of revenues and it also provides a more steady monthly revenue inflow.Content Commerce Solutions and Other sales also increased sharply in 2020. Content Commerce Solutions revenues jumped from 0.6 million RMB in 2019 to 135.8 million RMB in 2020. In early 2020, the company launched Content-Commerce solutions, which provide merchants and brands a one-stop shop for all of their sales and marketing needs, including marketing plans, assigning the most relevant content creators to interested users, and facilitating content creation.China's content-commerce solution market is expected to be one of the fastest growing sectors in the next several years. According to CIC Consultancy, China's content-commerce solution market is expected to enjoy a strong CAGR growth of 46.4% from 2019 to 2025 (112.3 billion RMB).Market OpportunitiesChina’s Online Content Communities Market SizeOnline content communities refer to UGC (user generated content)-focused (including PUGC (professional user generated content) focused online content market players where content creators are also users, who are actively engaged within the communities. The content communities generally can stimulate higher level of user engagement, more interactive user experience, and enjoy lower content cost, compared to PGC (professionally generated content) players. PGC is content created by the branded company or organization.China's online content communities market size increased from 38.6 billion RMB in 2015 to 275.8 billion RMB in 2019 and is further expected to rise to 1.3 trillion RMB in 2025, representing a CAGR of 30.3% from 2019 to 2025, which is higher than the overall online content market growth.China's online content community market has more diversified monetization channels including online advertising, paid membership, content e-commerce, content-commerce solutions, virtual gifting in live streaming, online games, and online education services. In comparison, the US online content community's monetization is mainly through advertising.One of the major positives about the company is the growing trend of more Chinese consumers that are willing to pay money for higher quality content. The number of paying users in China’s online content communities is expected to increase at a CAGR of 17.1% between 2019 and 2025, which means an increase of 360.4 million extra paying users of online content communities to 588.2 million in 2025.China's Online Content MarketChina's online content market tripled from 2015 to reach 1.2 trillion RMB in 2019. This market is expected to increase to 3.7 trillion RMB in 2025, representing a CAGR of 21.4% from 2019 to 2025.China’s Online Content Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025EMarket Size of China’s Online Content Communities (in terms of revenue),2015-2025EChina’s Paid Membership Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025EContent-commerce solutionsTo provide integrated marketing services, the online content communities provide content-commerce solutions for content creation, content distribution, and content conversion. The company provides integrated content-commerce solutions, providing merchants and brands one-stop services for all their sales and marketing needs, from making marketing plans, facilitating content creation, assigning the most relevant content creators, to distributing to the interested users. China's content commerce solution market is expected to grow from 11.4 billion RMB in 2019 to 112.3 billion RMB in 2025, at a CAGR of 46.4%.China’s Content-Commerce Solution Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ZH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":735,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":352268142,"gmtCreate":1616979075786,"gmtModify":1634523355610,"author":{"id":"3577186651876260","authorId":"3577186651876260","name":"KenKai","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577186651876260","idStr":"3577186651876260"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like my comment ty","listText":"Like my comment ty","text":"Like my comment ty","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/352268142","repostId":"2123428147","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":447,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":113898437,"gmtCreate":1622601371729,"gmtModify":1634100033732,"author":{"id":"3577186651876260","authorId":"3577186651876260","name":"KenKai","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577186651876260","idStr":"3577186651876260"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Reply to my comment&nbsp;","listText":"Reply to my comment&nbsp;","text":"Reply to my comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/113898437","repostId":"1106176005","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1106176005","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622588821,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1106176005?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-02 07:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"S&P 500 dips, as healthcare weighs; Dow ends higher<blockquote>随着医疗保健的压力，标普500下跌；道指收高</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106176005","media":"Reuters","summary":"The S&P 500dipped on Tuesday, with declines in healthcare and tech shares countered by energy and financial gains, as investors weighed the latest U.S. economic data for signs of a rebound and rising inflation.The S&P 500 financial sectorhit a record high, while expected growth in fuel demand boosted oil prices and helped lift the energy sector3.9%, its biggest $one$-day gain in nearly four months. The heavyweight tech sectorfell while the healthcare sectorwas dragged down by a weak profit forec","content":"<p>The S&amp;P 500(.SPX)dipped on Tuesday, with declines in healthcare and tech shares countered by energy and financial gains, as investors weighed the latest U.S. economic data for signs of a rebound and rising inflation.</p><p><blockquote>标普500(.SPX)周二下跌，医疗保健和科技股的下跌被能源和金融股的上涨所抵消，投资者权衡最新的美国经济数据是否有反弹和通胀上升的迹象。</blockquote></p><p>The S&amp;P 500 financial sector(.SPSY)hit a record high, while expected growth in fuel demand boosted oil prices and helped lift the energy sector(.SPNY)3.9%, its biggest <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a>-day gain in nearly four months. The heavyweight tech sector(.SPLRCT)fell while the healthcare sector(.SPXHC)was dragged down by a weak profit forecast from <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABT\">Abbott Laboratories</a>(ABT.N).</p><p><blockquote>标普500金融板块(.SPSY)创历史新高，而燃料需求预期增长提振油价，并帮助提振能源板块(.SPNY)上涨3.9%，为最大<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">一</a>-近四个月来的日涨幅。重量级科技板块(.SPLRCT)下跌，而医疗保健板块(.SPXHC)则受到来自<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABT\">雅培实验室</a>（N部）。</blockquote></p><p>Data showed U.S.manufacturing activity pickedup in May as pent-up demand in a reopening economy boosted orders. But unfinished work piled up because of shortages of raw materials and labor.</p><p><blockquote>数据显示，由于经济重新开放中被压抑的需求提振了订单，美国5月份制造业活动有所回升。但由于原材料和劳动力短缺，未完成的工作堆积起来。</blockquote></p><p>\"People came back from a holiday weekend convinced that the economy is recovering nicely and that any inflation that we might be seeing in labor and other costs is temporary,\" Peter Tuz, president of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCF\">Chase</a> Investment Counsel in Charlottesville, Virginia.</p><p><blockquote>“人们从假期周末回来后确信经济正在良好复苏，我们可能在劳动力和其他成本方面看到的任何通胀都是暂时的，”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCF\">追逐</a>弗吉尼亚州夏洛茨维尔的投资顾问。</blockquote></p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI)rose 45.86 points, or 0.13%, to 34,575.31; the S&amp;P 500(.SPX)lost 2.07 points, or 0.05%, at 4,202.04; and the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a> Composite(.IXIC)dropped 12.26 points, or 0.09%, to 13,736.48.</p><p><blockquote>道琼工业指数(.DJI)涨45.86点，或0.13%，报34,575.31；标普500(.SPX)下跌2.07点，或0.05%，报4,202.04点；和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">纳斯达克</a>综合指数(.IXIC)下跌12.26点，或0.09%，至13,736.48点。</blockquote></p><p>Along with sharp gains for financials and energy, the small-cap Russell 2000(.RUT)rose 1.1% on Tuesday, underscoring strength for segments of the stock market expected to do particularly well in an expanding economy.</p><p><blockquote>随着金融和能源股的大幅上涨，小盘股罗素2000指数(.RUT)周二上涨1.1%，突显了预计在经济扩张中表现尤其出色的股市板块的强势。</blockquote></p><p>While the S&amp;P 500 remains less than 1% of its record high after four straight months of gains, investors are worried about whether rising inflation could hit equity prices.</p><p><blockquote>尽管标普500在连续四个月上涨后仍不到历史高点的1%，但投资者担心通胀上升是否会打击股价。</blockquote></p><p>\"We have supply chain issues, delays, price increases, pricing pressures in general, we have got employers saying they have got difficulty sourcing labor,\" said Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IVZ\">Invesco</a> in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NWY\">New York</a>.</p><p><blockquote>首席全球市场策略师克里斯蒂娜·胡珀(Kristina Hooper)表示：“我们面临供应链问题、延误、价格上涨、总体定价压力，雇主表示他们很难找到劳动力。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IVZ\">景顺</a>在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NWY\">纽约</a>.</blockquote></p><p>\"So this is a microcosm of what we are already hearing about and seeing in the overall economy and it's just a reminder that inflation remains a concern.\"</p><p><blockquote>“因此，这是我们在整体经济中已经听到和看到的情况的一个缩影，它只是提醒人们通货膨胀仍然是一个问题。”</blockquote></p><p>A Wall St. sign is seen near the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYRT\">New York</a> Stock Exchange (NYSE) in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NGD\">New</a> York <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHCO\">City</a>, U.S., May 4, 2021. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo</p><p><blockquote>附近可以看到华尔街的标志<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYRT\">纽约</a>纽约证券交易所<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NGD\">新的</a>约克<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHCO\">城市</a>，美国，2021年5月4日。路透社/Brendan McDermid/资料照片</blockquote></p><p>Stock markets on Friday brushed off a surge inkey inflation readingsfor April following reassurances from Federal Reserve officials that the central bank’s ultra-loose monetary policy would remain in place.</p><p><blockquote>在美联储官员保证央行超宽松货币政策将继续实施后，周五股市没有出现四月份关键通胀数据的飙升。</blockquote></p><p>Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari and Fed Vice Chair for supervision Randal Quarles on Tuesday reiterated the view that higher prices would be transitory.</p><p><blockquote>明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行行长尼尔·卡什卡利和美联储负责监管的副主席兰德尔·夸尔斯周二重申了价格上涨将是暂时的观点。</blockquote></p><p>This week's focus will be on a raft of economic data, culminating with U.S. payrolls due on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>本周的焦点将是大量经济数据，最终将于周五公布的美国就业数据。</blockquote></p><p>Abbott Labs shares fell 9.3% after the company cut itsfull-year 2021 profit forecast, citing expectations for a sharp decline in revenue from its COVID-19 tests as more Americans get vaccinated. Shares of other test makers also fell.</p><p><blockquote>雅培实验室(Abbott Labs)下调2021年全年利润预期，理由是随着越来越多的美国人接种疫苗，预计其COVID-19检测收入将大幅下降，该公司股价下跌9.3%。其他测试制造商的股价也下跌。</blockquote></p><p>Cloudera Inc(CLDR.N)shares jumped 23.9% after private equity firms KKR &amp; Co(KKR.N)and Clayton Dubilier &amp; Rice LLCagreed to take the data analytics firm private.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudera Inc(CLDR.N)在私募股权公司KKR&amp;Co(KKR)之后，股价上涨23.9%。N)和Clayton Dubilier&amp;Rice LLCA同意将这家数据分析公司私有化。</blockquote></p><p>A group of“meme stocks” extended gainsfrom the previous week, with shares of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Entertainment</a> Holdings Inc(AMC.N)up 22.7% after the movie theater chain said it sold $230 million of its stock.</p><p><blockquote>一批“模因股”延续了前一周的涨幅，其中<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC院线</a>控股公司(AMC.N)上涨22.7%，此前这家连锁电影院表示出售了价值2.3亿美元的股票。</blockquote></p><p>Advancing issues outnumbered decliners on the NYSE by a 2.54-to-1 ratio; on <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a>, a 1.79-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所上涨股与下跌股的比例为2.54比1；在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">纳斯达克</a>1.79比1的比率有利于上涨者。</blockquote></p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 73 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 168 new highs and 25 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下73个52周新高，无新低；纳斯达克综合指数录得168个新高和25个新低。</blockquote></p><p>About 10.7 billion shares changed hands in U.S. exchanges, compared with the 10.5 billion daily average over the last 20 sessions.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所约有107亿股易手，而过去20个交易日的日均交易量为105亿股。</blockquote></p><p><b>Here are company's financial statements：</b></p><p><blockquote><b>以下是公司的财务报表：</b></blockquote></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1184181912\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Zoom reports blowout earnings but warns of a coming slowdown</b></a></p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1184181912\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Zoom报告盈利井喷，但警告即将放缓</b></a></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>S&P 500 dips, as healthcare weighs; Dow ends higher<blockquote>随着医疗保健的压力，标普500下跌；道指收高</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS&P 500 dips, as healthcare weighs; Dow ends higher<blockquote>随着医疗保健的压力，标普500下跌；道指收高</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-02 07:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500(.SPX)dipped on Tuesday, with declines in healthcare and tech shares countered by energy and financial gains, as investors weighed the latest U.S. economic data for signs of a rebound and rising inflation.</p><p><blockquote>标普500(.SPX)周二下跌，医疗保健和科技股的下跌被能源和金融股的上涨所抵消，投资者权衡最新的美国经济数据是否有反弹和通胀上升的迹象。</blockquote></p><p>The S&amp;P 500 financial sector(.SPSY)hit a record high, while expected growth in fuel demand boosted oil prices and helped lift the energy sector(.SPNY)3.9%, its biggest <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a>-day gain in nearly four months. The heavyweight tech sector(.SPLRCT)fell while the healthcare sector(.SPXHC)was dragged down by a weak profit forecast from <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABT\">Abbott Laboratories</a>(ABT.N).</p><p><blockquote>标普500金融板块(.SPSY)创历史新高，而燃料需求预期增长提振油价，并帮助提振能源板块(.SPNY)上涨3.9%，为最大<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">一</a>-近四个月来的日涨幅。重量级科技板块(.SPLRCT)下跌，而医疗保健板块(.SPXHC)则受到来自<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABT\">雅培实验室</a>（N部）。</blockquote></p><p>Data showed U.S.manufacturing activity pickedup in May as pent-up demand in a reopening economy boosted orders. But unfinished work piled up because of shortages of raw materials and labor.</p><p><blockquote>数据显示，由于经济重新开放中被压抑的需求提振了订单，美国5月份制造业活动有所回升。但由于原材料和劳动力短缺，未完成的工作堆积起来。</blockquote></p><p>\"People came back from a holiday weekend convinced that the economy is recovering nicely and that any inflation that we might be seeing in labor and other costs is temporary,\" Peter Tuz, president of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCF\">Chase</a> Investment Counsel in Charlottesville, Virginia.</p><p><blockquote>“人们从假期周末回来后确信经济正在良好复苏，我们可能在劳动力和其他成本方面看到的任何通胀都是暂时的，”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCF\">追逐</a>弗吉尼亚州夏洛茨维尔的投资顾问。</blockquote></p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI)rose 45.86 points, or 0.13%, to 34,575.31; the S&amp;P 500(.SPX)lost 2.07 points, or 0.05%, at 4,202.04; and the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a> Composite(.IXIC)dropped 12.26 points, or 0.09%, to 13,736.48.</p><p><blockquote>道琼工业指数(.DJI)涨45.86点，或0.13%，报34,575.31；标普500(.SPX)下跌2.07点，或0.05%，报4,202.04点；和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">纳斯达克</a>综合指数(.IXIC)下跌12.26点，或0.09%，至13,736.48点。</blockquote></p><p>Along with sharp gains for financials and energy, the small-cap Russell 2000(.RUT)rose 1.1% on Tuesday, underscoring strength for segments of the stock market expected to do particularly well in an expanding economy.</p><p><blockquote>随着金融和能源股的大幅上涨，小盘股罗素2000指数(.RUT)周二上涨1.1%，突显了预计在经济扩张中表现尤其出色的股市板块的强势。</blockquote></p><p>While the S&amp;P 500 remains less than 1% of its record high after four straight months of gains, investors are worried about whether rising inflation could hit equity prices.</p><p><blockquote>尽管标普500在连续四个月上涨后仍不到历史高点的1%，但投资者担心通胀上升是否会打击股价。</blockquote></p><p>\"We have supply chain issues, delays, price increases, pricing pressures in general, we have got employers saying they have got difficulty sourcing labor,\" said Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IVZ\">Invesco</a> in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NWY\">New York</a>.</p><p><blockquote>首席全球市场策略师克里斯蒂娜·胡珀(Kristina Hooper)表示：“我们面临供应链问题、延误、价格上涨、总体定价压力，雇主表示他们很难找到劳动力。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IVZ\">景顺</a>在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NWY\">纽约</a>.</blockquote></p><p>\"So this is a microcosm of what we are already hearing about and seeing in the overall economy and it's just a reminder that inflation remains a concern.\"</p><p><blockquote>“因此，这是我们在整体经济中已经听到和看到的情况的一个缩影，它只是提醒人们通货膨胀仍然是一个问题。”</blockquote></p><p>A Wall St. sign is seen near the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYRT\">New York</a> Stock Exchange (NYSE) in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NGD\">New</a> York <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHCO\">City</a>, U.S., May 4, 2021. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo</p><p><blockquote>附近可以看到华尔街的标志<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYRT\">纽约</a>纽约证券交易所<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NGD\">新的</a>约克<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHCO\">城市</a>，美国，2021年5月4日。路透社/Brendan McDermid/资料照片</blockquote></p><p>Stock markets on Friday brushed off a surge inkey inflation readingsfor April following reassurances from Federal Reserve officials that the central bank’s ultra-loose monetary policy would remain in place.</p><p><blockquote>在美联储官员保证央行超宽松货币政策将继续实施后，周五股市没有出现四月份关键通胀数据的飙升。</blockquote></p><p>Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari and Fed Vice Chair for supervision Randal Quarles on Tuesday reiterated the view that higher prices would be transitory.</p><p><blockquote>明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行行长尼尔·卡什卡利和美联储负责监管的副主席兰德尔·夸尔斯周二重申了价格上涨将是暂时的观点。</blockquote></p><p>This week's focus will be on a raft of economic data, culminating with U.S. payrolls due on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>本周的焦点将是大量经济数据，最终将于周五公布的美国就业数据。</blockquote></p><p>Abbott Labs shares fell 9.3% after the company cut itsfull-year 2021 profit forecast, citing expectations for a sharp decline in revenue from its COVID-19 tests as more Americans get vaccinated. Shares of other test makers also fell.</p><p><blockquote>雅培实验室(Abbott Labs)下调2021年全年利润预期，理由是随着越来越多的美国人接种疫苗，预计其COVID-19检测收入将大幅下降，该公司股价下跌9.3%。其他测试制造商的股价也下跌。</blockquote></p><p>Cloudera Inc(CLDR.N)shares jumped 23.9% after private equity firms KKR &amp; Co(KKR.N)and Clayton Dubilier &amp; Rice LLCagreed to take the data analytics firm private.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudera Inc(CLDR.N)在私募股权公司KKR&amp;Co(KKR)之后，股价上涨23.9%。N)和Clayton Dubilier&amp;Rice LLCA同意将这家数据分析公司私有化。</blockquote></p><p>A group of“meme stocks” extended gainsfrom the previous week, with shares of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Entertainment</a> Holdings Inc(AMC.N)up 22.7% after the movie theater chain said it sold $230 million of its stock.</p><p><blockquote>一批“模因股”延续了前一周的涨幅，其中<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC院线</a>控股公司(AMC.N)上涨22.7%，此前这家连锁电影院表示出售了价值2.3亿美元的股票。</blockquote></p><p>Advancing issues outnumbered decliners on the NYSE by a 2.54-to-1 ratio; on <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a>, a 1.79-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所上涨股与下跌股的比例为2.54比1；在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">纳斯达克</a>1.79比1的比率有利于上涨者。</blockquote></p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 73 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 168 new highs and 25 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下73个52周新高，无新低；纳斯达克综合指数录得168个新高和25个新低。</blockquote></p><p>About 10.7 billion shares changed hands in U.S. exchanges, compared with the 10.5 billion daily average over the last 20 sessions.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所约有107亿股易手，而过去20个交易日的日均交易量为105亿股。</blockquote></p><p><b>Here are company's financial statements：</b></p><p><blockquote><b>以下是公司的财务报表：</b></blockquote></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1184181912\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Zoom reports blowout earnings but warns of a coming slowdown</b></a></p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1184181912\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Zoom报告盈利井喷，但警告即将放缓</b></a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/business/sp-500-dips-healthcare-weighs-dow-ends-higher-2021-06-01/\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","OEX":"标普100","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/business/sp-500-dips-healthcare-weighs-dow-ends-higher-2021-06-01/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106176005","content_text":"The S&P 500(.SPX)dipped on Tuesday, with declines in healthcare and tech shares countered by energy and financial gains, as investors weighed the latest U.S. economic data for signs of a rebound and rising inflation.The S&P 500 financial sector(.SPSY)hit a record high, while expected growth in fuel demand boosted oil prices and helped lift the energy sector(.SPNY)3.9%, its biggest one-day gain in nearly four months. The heavyweight tech sector(.SPLRCT)fell while the healthcare sector(.SPXHC)was dragged down by a weak profit forecast from Abbott Laboratories(ABT.N).Data showed U.S.manufacturing activity pickedup in May as pent-up demand in a reopening economy boosted orders. But unfinished work piled up because of shortages of raw materials and labor.\"People came back from a holiday weekend convinced that the economy is recovering nicely and that any inflation that we might be seeing in labor and other costs is temporary,\" Peter Tuz, president of Chase Investment Counsel in Charlottesville, Virginia.The Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI)rose 45.86 points, or 0.13%, to 34,575.31; the S&P 500(.SPX)lost 2.07 points, or 0.05%, at 4,202.04; and the Nasdaq Composite(.IXIC)dropped 12.26 points, or 0.09%, to 13,736.48.Along with sharp gains for financials and energy, the small-cap Russell 2000(.RUT)rose 1.1% on Tuesday, underscoring strength for segments of the stock market expected to do particularly well in an expanding economy.While the S&P 500 remains less than 1% of its record high after four straight months of gains, investors are worried about whether rising inflation could hit equity prices.\"We have supply chain issues, delays, price increases, pricing pressures in general, we have got employers saying they have got difficulty sourcing labor,\" said Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco in New York.\"So this is a microcosm of what we are already hearing about and seeing in the overall economy and it's just a reminder that inflation remains a concern.\"A Wall St. sign is seen near the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., May 4, 2021. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File PhotoStock markets on Friday brushed off a surge inkey inflation readingsfor April following reassurances from Federal Reserve officials that the central bank’s ultra-loose monetary policy would remain in place.Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari and Fed Vice Chair for supervision Randal Quarles on Tuesday reiterated the view that higher prices would be transitory.This week's focus will be on a raft of economic data, culminating with U.S. payrolls due on Friday.Abbott Labs shares fell 9.3% after the company cut itsfull-year 2021 profit forecast, citing expectations for a sharp decline in revenue from its COVID-19 tests as more Americans get vaccinated. Shares of other test makers also fell.Cloudera Inc(CLDR.N)shares jumped 23.9% after private equity firms KKR & Co(KKR.N)and Clayton Dubilier & Rice LLCagreed to take the data analytics firm private.A group of“meme stocks” extended gainsfrom the previous week, with shares of AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc(AMC.N)up 22.7% after the movie theater chain said it sold $230 million of its stock.Advancing issues outnumbered decliners on the NYSE by a 2.54-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.79-to-1 ratio favored advancers.The S&P 500 posted 73 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 168 new highs and 25 new lows.About 10.7 billion shares changed hands in U.S. exchanges, compared with the 10.5 billion daily average over the last 20 sessions.Here are company's financial statements：Zoom reports blowout earnings but warns of a coming slowdown","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"SH":0.9,"OEX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":810,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":370966554,"gmtCreate":1618544595678,"gmtModify":1634292183283,"author":{"id":"3577186651876260","authorId":"3577186651876260","name":"KenKai","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577186651876260","idStr":"3577186651876260"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment my post ty!","listText":"Like and comment my post ty!","text":"Like and comment my post ty!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/370966554","repostId":"2127865888","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2127865888","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1618543026,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2127865888?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-16 11:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Intel faces a costly and uncertain road back to glory, analyst warns of 'pain' ahead<blockquote>分析师警告称，英特尔重返荣耀面临代价高昂且不确定的道路，未来将面临“痛苦”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2127865888","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Raymond James turns bearish on Intel shares, but calls rival chip maker Nvidia a 'strong buy'\nRecent","content":"<p>Raymond James turns bearish on Intel shares, but calls rival chip maker Nvidia a 'strong buy'</p><p><blockquote>Raymond James转而看跌英特尔股价，但评级竞争对手芯片制造商英伟达“强力买入”</blockquote></p><p> Recent enthusiasm for Intel Corp.'s new chief executive and his ambitious plans to transform the company overlooks the risks and costs associated with the chipmaker's strategy, an analyst argued Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>一位分析师周四表示，最近人们对英特尔公司新任首席执行官及其雄心勃勃的公司转型计划的热情忽视了与这家芯片制造商战略相关的风险和成本。</blockquote></p><p> Chris Caso of Raymond James downgraded Intel's stock to underperform from market perform, writing that Intel <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">$(INTC)$</a> faces an expensive and uncertain journey as it tries to recover from a series of missteps and reassert its dominance in the chip landscape.</p><p><blockquote>Raymond James的Chris Caso将英特尔股票评级从市场表现下调至表现不佳，他写道，英特尔<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">$(INTC)$</a>在试图从一系列失误中恢复过来并重新确立其在芯片领域的主导地位时，它面临着一段昂贵且不确定的旅程。</blockquote></p><p> Intel shares are up 21% since the company announced that Pat Gelsinger, who had been serving as chief executive of VMware Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VMW\">$(VMW)$</a>, would be taking over the top spot at Intel. Gelsinger recently laid out plans for Intel to expand its manufacturing capacity and launch a foundry business that would make chips for other companies, but Caso has concerns about the prospects for and cost of success.</p><p><blockquote>自英特尔宣布一直担任VMware Inc.首席执行官的帕特·基辛格(Pat Gelsinger)上任以来，英特尔股价已上涨21%。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VMW\">$(VMW)$</a>，将取代英特尔的头把交椅。基辛格最近为英特尔制定了扩大制造能力并推出代工业务的计划，为其他公司生产芯片，但卡索对成功的前景和成本感到担忧。</blockquote></p><p> \"Our underperform rating reflects not just the risk that Intel won't reach that goal, but also the pain they will likely endure in pursuit of that goal in terms of capex, lost market share, and a shifting landscape in datacenter that will make the industry less dependent on Intel,\" he wrote in a note to clients.</p><p><blockquote>“我们的表现不佳评级不仅反映了英特尔无法实现这一目标的风险，还反映了他们在追求这一目标的过程中可能会在资本支出、市场份额损失以及数据中心格局的变化方面忍受的痛苦，这将使该行业减少对英特尔的依赖，”他在给客户的一份报告中写道。</blockquote></p><p> Caso worries that demand for personal computers has been \"significantly pulled forward\" due to the pandemic, which could eventually lead to a reversion to the mean. The problem for Intel is that the mean reversion \"may unfortunately occur just as Intel needs to ramp investment.\"</p><p><blockquote>卡索担心，由于疫情，对个人电脑的需求已经“显着提前”，这最终可能导致回归均值。英特尔面临的问题是，均值回归“可能会在英特尔需要增加投资时不幸发生”。</blockquote></p><p> Even though Intel could receive some government assistance, Caso expects that the company's plans to open a foundry business will be expensive. \"We therefore believe the fall analyst day could be a negative catalyst, as investors get the bill for that investment,\" he wrote. In addition, he's skeptical that the company has the technology to effectively compete in this business.</p><p><blockquote>尽管英特尔可能会获得一些政府援助，但Caso预计该公司开设代工业务的计划将耗资巨大。他写道：“因此，我们认为秋季分析师日可能会成为负面催化剂，因为投资者会为该投资买单。”此外，他怀疑该公司是否拥有在这项业务中有效竞争的技术。</blockquote></p><p> \"For investors who have a higher confidence in a turnaround than we do, we simply don't see a reason to make that bet now since any turnaround would be several years away, with many cyclical and Intel-specific issues that could weigh on estimates in the meantime,\" Caso wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“对于比我们对扭亏为盈更有信心的投资者来说，我们根本看不出现在有理由下这样的赌注，因为任何扭亏为盈都需要几年的时间，许多周期性和英特尔特有的问题可能会影响估值与此同时，”卡索写道。</blockquote></p><p> He's partial to other chip names, including Nvidia Corp. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$(NVDA)$</a>, which he upgraded to strong buy from outperform Thursday in a sign of his \"conviction in both the short and long term.\" Caso also initiated coverage of Advanced Micro Devices Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$(AMD)$</a> with an outperform rating and $100 price target, arguing that the company has \"a durable technical advantage versus Intel.\"</p><p><blockquote>他偏爱其他芯片公司，包括英伟达公司。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$(NVDA)$</a>周四，他将其评级从跑赢大盘上调至强力买入，这表明他“对短期和长期的信念”。Caso还开始报道Advanced Micro Devices Inc.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$(AMD)$</a>给予跑赢大盘评级和100美元的目标价，认为该公司“相对于英特尔拥有持久的技术优势”。</blockquote></p><p> AMD shares have lost 7% over the past three months, as Nvidia shares have risen 24% and as Intel shares have increased 14%. The S&amp;P 500 is up 10% in that span, while the PHLX Semiconductor Index has gained 9%.</p><p><blockquote>过去三个月，AMD股价下跌7%，英伟达股价上涨24%，英特尔股价上涨14%。标普500在此期间上涨了10%，而PHLX半导体指数则上涨了9%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Intel faces a costly and uncertain road back to glory, analyst warns of 'pain' ahead<blockquote>分析师警告称，英特尔重返荣耀面临代价高昂且不确定的道路，未来将面临“痛苦”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIntel faces a costly and uncertain road back to glory, analyst warns of 'pain' ahead<blockquote>分析师警告称，英特尔重返荣耀面临代价高昂且不确定的道路，未来将面临“痛苦”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-16 11:17</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Raymond James turns bearish on Intel shares, but calls rival chip maker Nvidia a 'strong buy'</p><p><blockquote>Raymond James转而看跌英特尔股价，但评级竞争对手芯片制造商英伟达“强力买入”</blockquote></p><p> Recent enthusiasm for Intel Corp.'s new chief executive and his ambitious plans to transform the company overlooks the risks and costs associated with the chipmaker's strategy, an analyst argued Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>一位分析师周四表示，最近人们对英特尔公司新任首席执行官及其雄心勃勃的公司转型计划的热情忽视了与这家芯片制造商战略相关的风险和成本。</blockquote></p><p> Chris Caso of Raymond James downgraded Intel's stock to underperform from market perform, writing that Intel <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">$(INTC)$</a> faces an expensive and uncertain journey as it tries to recover from a series of missteps and reassert its dominance in the chip landscape.</p><p><blockquote>Raymond James的Chris Caso将英特尔股票评级从市场表现下调至表现不佳，他写道，英特尔<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">$(INTC)$</a>在试图从一系列失误中恢复过来并重新确立其在芯片领域的主导地位时，它面临着一段昂贵且不确定的旅程。</blockquote></p><p> Intel shares are up 21% since the company announced that Pat Gelsinger, who had been serving as chief executive of VMware Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VMW\">$(VMW)$</a>, would be taking over the top spot at Intel. Gelsinger recently laid out plans for Intel to expand its manufacturing capacity and launch a foundry business that would make chips for other companies, but Caso has concerns about the prospects for and cost of success.</p><p><blockquote>自英特尔宣布一直担任VMware Inc.首席执行官的帕特·基辛格(Pat Gelsinger)上任以来，英特尔股价已上涨21%。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VMW\">$(VMW)$</a>，将取代英特尔的头把交椅。基辛格最近为英特尔制定了扩大制造能力并推出代工业务的计划，为其他公司生产芯片，但卡索对成功的前景和成本感到担忧。</blockquote></p><p> \"Our underperform rating reflects not just the risk that Intel won't reach that goal, but also the pain they will likely endure in pursuit of that goal in terms of capex, lost market share, and a shifting landscape in datacenter that will make the industry less dependent on Intel,\" he wrote in a note to clients.</p><p><blockquote>“我们的表现不佳评级不仅反映了英特尔无法实现这一目标的风险，还反映了他们在追求这一目标的过程中可能会在资本支出、市场份额损失以及数据中心格局的变化方面忍受的痛苦，这将使该行业减少对英特尔的依赖，”他在给客户的一份报告中写道。</blockquote></p><p> Caso worries that demand for personal computers has been \"significantly pulled forward\" due to the pandemic, which could eventually lead to a reversion to the mean. The problem for Intel is that the mean reversion \"may unfortunately occur just as Intel needs to ramp investment.\"</p><p><blockquote>卡索担心，由于疫情，对个人电脑的需求已经“显着提前”，这最终可能导致回归均值。英特尔面临的问题是，均值回归“可能会在英特尔需要增加投资时不幸发生”。</blockquote></p><p> Even though Intel could receive some government assistance, Caso expects that the company's plans to open a foundry business will be expensive. \"We therefore believe the fall analyst day could be a negative catalyst, as investors get the bill for that investment,\" he wrote. In addition, he's skeptical that the company has the technology to effectively compete in this business.</p><p><blockquote>尽管英特尔可能会获得一些政府援助，但Caso预计该公司开设代工业务的计划将耗资巨大。他写道：“因此，我们认为秋季分析师日可能会成为负面催化剂，因为投资者会为该投资买单。”此外，他怀疑该公司是否拥有在这项业务中有效竞争的技术。</blockquote></p><p> \"For investors who have a higher confidence in a turnaround than we do, we simply don't see a reason to make that bet now since any turnaround would be several years away, with many cyclical and Intel-specific issues that could weigh on estimates in the meantime,\" Caso wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“对于比我们对扭亏为盈更有信心的投资者来说，我们根本看不出现在有理由下这样的赌注，因为任何扭亏为盈都需要几年的时间，许多周期性和英特尔特有的问题可能会影响估值与此同时，”卡索写道。</blockquote></p><p> He's partial to other chip names, including Nvidia Corp. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$(NVDA)$</a>, which he upgraded to strong buy from outperform Thursday in a sign of his \"conviction in both the short and long term.\" Caso also initiated coverage of Advanced Micro Devices Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$(AMD)$</a> with an outperform rating and $100 price target, arguing that the company has \"a durable technical advantage versus Intel.\"</p><p><blockquote>他偏爱其他芯片公司，包括英伟达公司。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$(NVDA)$</a>周四，他将其评级从跑赢大盘上调至强力买入，这表明他“对短期和长期的信念”。Caso还开始报道Advanced Micro Devices Inc.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$(AMD)$</a>给予跑赢大盘评级和100美元的目标价，认为该公司“相对于英特尔拥有持久的技术优势”。</blockquote></p><p> AMD shares have lost 7% over the past three months, as Nvidia shares have risen 24% and as Intel shares have increased 14%. The S&amp;P 500 is up 10% in that span, while the PHLX Semiconductor Index has gained 9%.</p><p><blockquote>过去三个月，AMD股价下跌7%，英伟达股价上涨24%，英特尔股价上涨14%。标普500在此期间上涨了10%，而PHLX半导体指数则上涨了9%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/intel-faces-a-costly-and-uncertain-road-back-to-glory-analyst-warns-of-pain-ahead-11618502833?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司","NVDA":"英伟达","INTC":"英特尔"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/intel-faces-a-costly-and-uncertain-road-back-to-glory-analyst-warns-of-pain-ahead-11618502833?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2127865888","content_text":"Raymond James turns bearish on Intel shares, but calls rival chip maker Nvidia a 'strong buy'\nRecent enthusiasm for Intel Corp.'s new chief executive and his ambitious plans to transform the company overlooks the risks and costs associated with the chipmaker's strategy, an analyst argued Thursday.\nChris Caso of Raymond James downgraded Intel's stock to underperform from market perform, writing that Intel $(INTC)$ faces an expensive and uncertain journey as it tries to recover from a series of missteps and reassert its dominance in the chip landscape.\nIntel shares are up 21% since the company announced that Pat Gelsinger, who had been serving as chief executive of VMware Inc. $(VMW)$, would be taking over the top spot at Intel. Gelsinger recently laid out plans for Intel to expand its manufacturing capacity and launch a foundry business that would make chips for other companies, but Caso has concerns about the prospects for and cost of success.\n\"Our underperform rating reflects not just the risk that Intel won't reach that goal, but also the pain they will likely endure in pursuit of that goal in terms of capex, lost market share, and a shifting landscape in datacenter that will make the industry less dependent on Intel,\" he wrote in a note to clients.\nCaso worries that demand for personal computers has been \"significantly pulled forward\" due to the pandemic, which could eventually lead to a reversion to the mean. The problem for Intel is that the mean reversion \"may unfortunately occur just as Intel needs to ramp investment.\"\nEven though Intel could receive some government assistance, Caso expects that the company's plans to open a foundry business will be expensive. \"We therefore believe the fall analyst day could be a negative catalyst, as investors get the bill for that investment,\" he wrote. In addition, he's skeptical that the company has the technology to effectively compete in this business.\n\"For investors who have a higher confidence in a turnaround than we do, we simply don't see a reason to make that bet now since any turnaround would be several years away, with many cyclical and Intel-specific issues that could weigh on estimates in the meantime,\" Caso wrote.\nHe's partial to other chip names, including Nvidia Corp. $(NVDA)$, which he upgraded to strong buy from outperform Thursday in a sign of his \"conviction in both the short and long term.\" Caso also initiated coverage of Advanced Micro Devices Inc. $(AMD)$ with an outperform rating and $100 price target, arguing that the company has \"a durable technical advantage versus Intel.\"\nAMD shares have lost 7% over the past three months, as Nvidia shares have risen 24% and as Intel shares have increased 14%. The S&P 500 is up 10% in that span, while the PHLX Semiconductor Index has gained 9%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"INTC":0.9,"AMD":0.9,"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":501,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":350018328,"gmtCreate":1616137094964,"gmtModify":1634527050459,"author":{"id":"3577186651876260","authorId":"3577186651876260","name":"KenKai","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577186651876260","idStr":"3577186651876260"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment my post thanks!","listText":"Like and comment my post thanks!","text":"Like and comment my post thanks!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/350018328","repostId":"1120004991","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120004991","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616136343,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1120004991?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-19 14:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How to Hedge Your Portfolio Against a Stock Market Plunge<blockquote>如何对冲您的投资组合免受股市暴跌的影响</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120004991","media":"Barrons","summary":"Record highs. Record angst.Such is the predicament of many investors as the stock market keeps risin","content":"<p>Record highs. Record angst.</p><p><blockquote>创历史新高。记录焦虑。</blockquote></p><p>Such is the predicament of many investors as the stock market keeps rising higher and higher. The historic advance has left many investment accounts plump with unrealized gains, and that is starting to make some investors fret about what comes next.</p><p><blockquote>随着股市不断上涨，这就是许多投资者的困境。历史性的上涨让许多投资账户充满了未实现的收益，这开始让一些投资者担心接下来会发生什么。</blockquote></p><p>“Does a good thing go on forever? Human nature, and experience, suggest otherwise,”Michael Schwartz, Oppenheimer &amp; Co.’s chief options strategist, told&nbsp;Barron’s.</p><p><blockquote>奥本海默公司首席期权策略师迈克尔·施瓦茨(Michael Schwartz)告诉《巴伦周刊》：“好事会永远持续下去吗？人性和经验表明并非如此。”</blockquote></p><p>Though it has been hard to be bearish about stocks for a long time, some investors are beginning to fixate on the unrealized gains in their portfolios. Rather than selling securities to lock in those gains—which is a profoundly difficult decision for all but the most disciplined—investors are looking at protecting them with options.</p><p><blockquote>尽管长期以来很难看空股票，但一些投资者开始关注其投资组合中未实现的收益。投资者没有出售证券来锁定这些收益——这对于除了最有纪律的人之外的所有人来说都是一个极其困难的决定——而是寻求用期权来保护它们。</blockquote></p><p>It’s impossible to quantify hedging activity, but defensive trading patterns are starting to emerge in the market. For the first time in ages, says Schwartz, the dean of the Street’s options strategists, clients have begun asking how to hedge stock portfolios in case something upsets the historic rally.</p><p><blockquote>无法量化对冲活动，但防御性交易模式开始在市场上出现。华尔街期权策略师院长施瓦茨表示，多年来第一次，客户开始询问如何对冲股票投资组合，以防出现什么事情扰乱历史性反弹。</blockquote></p><p>His clients aren’t citing any specific reason for a stock market decline. He says they just seem to have concerns that making money through investing won’t be as easy as it has been for so long.</p><p><blockquote>他的客户没有给出股市下跌的任何具体原因。他说，他们似乎只是担心通过投资赚钱不会像长期以来那样容易。</blockquote></p><p>The&nbsp;S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;is up about 80% since its March 2020 lows, and many stocks have surged even more.</p><p><blockquote>标准普尔500指数自2020年3月低点以来上涨了约80%，许多股票的涨幅甚至更大。</blockquote></p><p>To hedge, Schwartz has advised some clientsto buy put options&nbsp;directly on the S&amp;P 500. A $1 million portfolio can be partially hedged against a 10% stock market decline by buying three S&amp;P 500 April $3,925 puts. Each contract cost about $6,530 when the benchmark index was at 3974. The total cost to hedge is about $19,590.</p><p><blockquote>为了对冲，Schwartz建议一些客户直接在标普500上购买看跌期权。100万美元的投资组合可以通过购买三份标普500 4月份3,925美元的看跌期权来部分对冲10%的股市下跌。当基准指数为3974点时，每份合约的成本约为6,530美元。对冲的总成本约为19,590美元。</blockquote></p><p>If the index declines by 10%, the portfolio will decline by about 0.8%, Schwartz says. If the index declines 10%, to 3553, the puts would be worth about $92,009. If the index is above the put strike price at expiration, the hedge fails, and the money spent on the puts is probably lost or seriously diminished. During the past 52 weeks, the S&amp;P 500 has ranged from 2191.86 to 3981.04. The index is up about 6% so far this year.</p><p><blockquote>施瓦茨表示，如果指数下跌10%，投资组合将下跌约0.8%。如果指数下跌10%，至3553点，看跌期权的价值约为92,009美元。如果到期时指数高于看跌期权执行价格，则对冲失败，花在看跌期权上的钱可能会损失或严重减少。过去52周，标普500范围为2191.86至3981.04。今年迄今为止，该指数上涨了约6%。</blockquote></p><p>Over the years, we have rarely discussedhedging strategies. Our preferred approach since the 2007-09 financial crisis has generally been to sell puts and buy call options. The existence ofa massive “Fed put”minted by low interest rates has generally supported such a bullish posture. Ironically, this has helped to make hedging more reasonably priced for the first time in a long while.</p><p><blockquote>多年来，我们很少讨论对冲策略。自2007-09年金融危机以来，我们的首选方法通常是卖出看跌期权并买入看涨期权期权。低利率造就的大规模“美联储看跌期权”的存在总体上支持了这种看涨姿态。具有讽刺意味的是，这有助于长期以来首次使对冲定价更加合理。</blockquote></p><p>In the past, the stock market needed to experience a massive correction for hedges even to be worth the expense. Now, hedging expenses have moderated for reasons that reflect deep changes in the options market.</p><p><blockquote>过去，股市需要经历大规模调整才能进行对冲，甚至值得付出代价。现在，对冲费用有所放缓，原因反映了期权市场的深刻变化。</blockquote></p><p>Rather than just buying stocks, a new breed of investors is also buying loads of upside calls to further cash in on the rising stock market. This incredible bullishness among investors means that calls are often more expensive than puts. In other words, the market mob is arguably more greedy than fearful at this current moment.</p><p><blockquote>新一代投资者不仅购买股票，还购买大量上涨的评级，以进一步从上涨的股市中获利。投资者这种令人难以置信的看涨情绪意味着评级往往比看跌期权更贵。换句话说，目前市场暴民可以说是贪婪多于恐惧。</blockquote></p><p>Still, anyone who considers hedging must understand that hedges must be managed. They are not “set and forget” positions.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，任何考虑对冲的人都必须明白，对冲必须得到管理。它们不是“一劳永逸”的立场。</blockquote></p><p>Many investors fail to realize profits on hedges because they get greedy, and hedges expire with little profit when the market rebounds. Determine in advance at what point you would monetize the hedge. Some investors will take profits at a 100% gain; others at 50%.</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者因贪婪而未能在对冲中实现利润，而当市场反弹时，对冲到期时几乎没有利润。提前确定您将在什么时候将对冲货币化。有些投资者会在100%的涨幅时获利了结；其他50%。</blockquote></p><p>The key is just to take the profits, which can be as difficult to do on the downside as it is on the upside.</p><p><blockquote>关键是获利了结，这在下跌时和上涨时一样困难。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How to Hedge Your Portfolio Against a Stock Market Plunge<blockquote>如何对冲您的投资组合免受股市暴跌的影响</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow to Hedge Your Portfolio Against a Stock Market Plunge<blockquote>如何对冲您的投资组合免受股市暴跌的影响</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-19 14:45</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Record highs. Record angst.</p><p><blockquote>创历史新高。记录焦虑。</blockquote></p><p>Such is the predicament of many investors as the stock market keeps rising higher and higher. The historic advance has left many investment accounts plump with unrealized gains, and that is starting to make some investors fret about what comes next.</p><p><blockquote>随着股市不断上涨，这就是许多投资者的困境。历史性的上涨让许多投资账户充满了未实现的收益，这开始让一些投资者担心接下来会发生什么。</blockquote></p><p>“Does a good thing go on forever? Human nature, and experience, suggest otherwise,”Michael Schwartz, Oppenheimer &amp; Co.’s chief options strategist, told&nbsp;Barron’s.</p><p><blockquote>奥本海默公司首席期权策略师迈克尔·施瓦茨(Michael Schwartz)告诉《巴伦周刊》：“好事会永远持续下去吗？人性和经验表明并非如此。”</blockquote></p><p>Though it has been hard to be bearish about stocks for a long time, some investors are beginning to fixate on the unrealized gains in their portfolios. Rather than selling securities to lock in those gains—which is a profoundly difficult decision for all but the most disciplined—investors are looking at protecting them with options.</p><p><blockquote>尽管长期以来很难看空股票，但一些投资者开始关注其投资组合中未实现的收益。投资者没有出售证券来锁定这些收益——这对于除了最有纪律的人之外的所有人来说都是一个极其困难的决定——而是寻求用期权来保护它们。</blockquote></p><p>It’s impossible to quantify hedging activity, but defensive trading patterns are starting to emerge in the market. For the first time in ages, says Schwartz, the dean of the Street’s options strategists, clients have begun asking how to hedge stock portfolios in case something upsets the historic rally.</p><p><blockquote>无法量化对冲活动，但防御性交易模式开始在市场上出现。华尔街期权策略师院长施瓦茨表示，多年来第一次，客户开始询问如何对冲股票投资组合，以防出现什么事情扰乱历史性反弹。</blockquote></p><p>His clients aren’t citing any specific reason for a stock market decline. He says they just seem to have concerns that making money through investing won’t be as easy as it has been for so long.</p><p><blockquote>他的客户没有给出股市下跌的任何具体原因。他说，他们似乎只是担心通过投资赚钱不会像长期以来那样容易。</blockquote></p><p>The&nbsp;S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;is up about 80% since its March 2020 lows, and many stocks have surged even more.</p><p><blockquote>标准普尔500指数自2020年3月低点以来上涨了约80%，许多股票的涨幅甚至更大。</blockquote></p><p>To hedge, Schwartz has advised some clientsto buy put options&nbsp;directly on the S&amp;P 500. A $1 million portfolio can be partially hedged against a 10% stock market decline by buying three S&amp;P 500 April $3,925 puts. Each contract cost about $6,530 when the benchmark index was at 3974. The total cost to hedge is about $19,590.</p><p><blockquote>为了对冲，Schwartz建议一些客户直接在标普500上购买看跌期权。100万美元的投资组合可以通过购买三份标普500 4月份3,925美元的看跌期权来部分对冲10%的股市下跌。当基准指数为3974点时，每份合约的成本约为6,530美元。对冲的总成本约为19,590美元。</blockquote></p><p>If the index declines by 10%, the portfolio will decline by about 0.8%, Schwartz says. If the index declines 10%, to 3553, the puts would be worth about $92,009. If the index is above the put strike price at expiration, the hedge fails, and the money spent on the puts is probably lost or seriously diminished. During the past 52 weeks, the S&amp;P 500 has ranged from 2191.86 to 3981.04. The index is up about 6% so far this year.</p><p><blockquote>施瓦茨表示，如果指数下跌10%，投资组合将下跌约0.8%。如果指数下跌10%，至3553点，看跌期权的价值约为92,009美元。如果到期时指数高于看跌期权执行价格，则对冲失败，花在看跌期权上的钱可能会损失或严重减少。过去52周，标普500范围为2191.86至3981.04。今年迄今为止，该指数上涨了约6%。</blockquote></p><p>Over the years, we have rarely discussedhedging strategies. Our preferred approach since the 2007-09 financial crisis has generally been to sell puts and buy call options. The existence ofa massive “Fed put”minted by low interest rates has generally supported such a bullish posture. Ironically, this has helped to make hedging more reasonably priced for the first time in a long while.</p><p><blockquote>多年来，我们很少讨论对冲策略。自2007-09年金融危机以来，我们的首选方法通常是卖出看跌期权并买入看涨期权期权。低利率造就的大规模“美联储看跌期权”的存在总体上支持了这种看涨姿态。具有讽刺意味的是，这有助于长期以来首次使对冲定价更加合理。</blockquote></p><p>In the past, the stock market needed to experience a massive correction for hedges even to be worth the expense. Now, hedging expenses have moderated for reasons that reflect deep changes in the options market.</p><p><blockquote>过去，股市需要经历大规模调整才能进行对冲，甚至值得付出代价。现在，对冲费用有所放缓，原因反映了期权市场的深刻变化。</blockquote></p><p>Rather than just buying stocks, a new breed of investors is also buying loads of upside calls to further cash in on the rising stock market. This incredible bullishness among investors means that calls are often more expensive than puts. In other words, the market mob is arguably more greedy than fearful at this current moment.</p><p><blockquote>新一代投资者不仅购买股票，还购买大量上涨的评级，以进一步从上涨的股市中获利。投资者这种令人难以置信的看涨情绪意味着评级往往比看跌期权更贵。换句话说，目前市场暴民可以说是贪婪多于恐惧。</blockquote></p><p>Still, anyone who considers hedging must understand that hedges must be managed. They are not “set and forget” positions.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，任何考虑对冲的人都必须明白，对冲必须得到管理。它们不是“一劳永逸”的立场。</blockquote></p><p>Many investors fail to realize profits on hedges because they get greedy, and hedges expire with little profit when the market rebounds. Determine in advance at what point you would monetize the hedge. Some investors will take profits at a 100% gain; others at 50%.</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者因贪婪而未能在对冲中实现利润，而当市场反弹时，对冲到期时几乎没有利润。提前确定您将在什么时候将对冲货币化。有些投资者会在100%的涨幅时获利了结；其他50%。</blockquote></p><p>The key is just to take the profits, which can be as difficult to do on the downside as it is on the upside.</p><p><blockquote>关键是获利了结，这在下跌时和上涨时一样困难。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/how-to-hedge-your-portfolio-against-a-stock-market-plunge-51616065221?mod=RTA\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/how-to-hedge-your-portfolio-against-a-stock-market-plunge-51616065221?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120004991","content_text":"Record highs. Record angst.Such is the predicament of many investors as the stock market keeps rising higher and higher. The historic advance has left many investment accounts plump with unrealized gains, and that is starting to make some investors fret about what comes next.“Does a good thing go on forever? Human nature, and experience, suggest otherwise,”Michael Schwartz, Oppenheimer & Co.’s chief options strategist, told Barron’s.Though it has been hard to be bearish about stocks for a long time, some investors are beginning to fixate on the unrealized gains in their portfolios. Rather than selling securities to lock in those gains—which is a profoundly difficult decision for all but the most disciplined—investors are looking at protecting them with options.It’s impossible to quantify hedging activity, but defensive trading patterns are starting to emerge in the market. For the first time in ages, says Schwartz, the dean of the Street’s options strategists, clients have begun asking how to hedge stock portfolios in case something upsets the historic rally.His clients aren’t citing any specific reason for a stock market decline. He says they just seem to have concerns that making money through investing won’t be as easy as it has been for so long.The S&P 500 index is up about 80% since its March 2020 lows, and many stocks have surged even more.To hedge, Schwartz has advised some clientsto buy put options directly on the S&P 500. A $1 million portfolio can be partially hedged against a 10% stock market decline by buying three S&P 500 April $3,925 puts. Each contract cost about $6,530 when the benchmark index was at 3974. The total cost to hedge is about $19,590.If the index declines by 10%, the portfolio will decline by about 0.8%, Schwartz says. If the index declines 10%, to 3553, the puts would be worth about $92,009. If the index is above the put strike price at expiration, the hedge fails, and the money spent on the puts is probably lost or seriously diminished. During the past 52 weeks, the S&P 500 has ranged from 2191.86 to 3981.04. The index is up about 6% so far this year.Over the years, we have rarely discussedhedging strategies. Our preferred approach since the 2007-09 financial crisis has generally been to sell puts and buy call options. The existence ofa massive “Fed put”minted by low interest rates has generally supported such a bullish posture. Ironically, this has helped to make hedging more reasonably priced for the first time in a long while.In the past, the stock market needed to experience a massive correction for hedges even to be worth the expense. Now, hedging expenses have moderated for reasons that reflect deep changes in the options market.Rather than just buying stocks, a new breed of investors is also buying loads of upside calls to further cash in on the rising stock market. This incredible bullishness among investors means that calls are often more expensive than puts. In other words, the market mob is arguably more greedy than fearful at this current moment.Still, anyone who considers hedging must understand that hedges must be managed. They are not “set and forget” positions.Many investors fail to realize profits on hedges because they get greedy, and hedges expire with little profit when the market rebounds. Determine in advance at what point you would monetize the hedge. Some investors will take profits at a 100% gain; others at 50%.The key is just to take the profits, which can be as difficult to do on the downside as it is on the upside.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":390,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":377927348,"gmtCreate":1619491113684,"gmtModify":1634212322013,"author":{"id":"3577186651876260","authorId":"3577186651876260","name":"KenKai","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577186651876260","idStr":"3577186651876260"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment ty","listText":"Like and comment ty","text":"Like and comment ty","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/377927348","repostId":"1161701941","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":548,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}