建华003的个人主页 - 老虎社区

建华003

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IP属地：北京

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2025-07-10

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ [呆住]

2025-07-10

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ [得意]

2025-07-10

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ [得意]

2025-06-24

$Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ 波动太大，不再持仓

2025-02-24

有用

抱歉，原内容已删除

2025-02-21

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/FI1ONBJlZ5-AQkg4BSPcmg 太有意思了来看

2024-11-29

$特朗普媒体科技集团(DJT)$ $特朗普媒体科技集团(DJT)$

2024-07-01

我感觉会赢来反[得意] [呆住]

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08:30","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"恒生科技单日上涨6%+后的表现规律：未来1-2周下跌概率更高，1个月维度表现无明显规律","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2513769151","media":"晨明的策略深度...","summary":"广发证券认为，历史上，加速阶段6%+以上大涨之后，未来1-2周的下跌概率更高，而1个月维度的表现无明显规律。对短期市场，纯粹的主题躁动阶段可能已在尾声，市场交易逻辑将逐步切换至实质的基本面兑现，前期涨幅较大的科技成长板块波动或加剧。","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_2166152093\">摘要</h2><p><strong>1.恒生科技历史上单日上涨6%+以后港股表现规律：</strong></p><p>2月21日港股市场高开高走，最终恒生指数、恒生科技分别收涨3.99%、6.53%。在此之前，历史上共26次出现恒生科技单日上涨6%以上，其中20次为下跌市中的反弹或行情底部启动初期（2022年之后更加频繁），6次出现在上行行情中的加速阶段。从历史经验来看，加速阶段6%+以上大涨之后，未来1-2周的下跌概率更高，而1个月维度的表现无明显规律。</p><p><strong>2.26个交易日后港股估值水平：</strong></p><p>截止2月21日收盘，本轮行情已持续26个交易</p><p>日，恒生指数和恒生科技涨幅分别达24.4%、38.8%，全面超过2024年4月-5月行情，但仍低于2024年9-10月行情。</p><p>以恒生指数EPR衡量当前估值合理性，截止2月21收盘，恒生指数ERP回落至6.2%，小幅突破过去三年ERP均值-1.5X标准差。静态测算，ERP【回到-1.5X标准差位置】、【回到去年5月20日绝对水平】、【回到去年10月7日绝对水平】三种水平下分别对应涨跌幅-1.0%、+1.5%、+6.8%。</p><p>全球横向比较来看，恒生指数和H股50指数在本轮上涨之后，市盈率分位数均来到过去10年的中高位置；尤其H股50指数在互联网行情推动下，市盈率分位数升至90%以上。</p><p>但从估值合理性来看，全球比较下港股估值水平仍相对合理；同时也要看到，限制中国资产估值中枢上移的主要因素仍是盈利水平。</p><p><strong>3.关注3月之后交易逻辑的转变：</strong></p><p>从政策、财报、开工、流动性的日历规律出发，3月之后全年政策分工落地、港股年报初步公告披露、春季开工启动，市场逐步切换至景气度交易。对短期市场，我们认为纯粹的主题躁动阶段可能已在尾声，市场交易逻辑将逐步切换至实质的基本面兑现，前期涨幅较大的科技成长板块波动或加剧。港股盈利结构中顺周期（地产链）占比高，持续性的牛市有赖于基本面修复确认。</p><p>风险提示：产业层面技术进步不及预期；海外经济形势恶化、美股调整带来的负面影响；国际政治环境变化（中美摩擦、地缘政治等）带来额外冲击等；国内经济增长及稳增长政策不及预期（出口超预期受海外需求拖累、地产消费信心难恢复等）。</p><h2 id=\"id_4261439729\">报告正文</h2><p><strong>一、恒生科技历史上单日上涨6%+以后港股表现规律</strong></p><p>2月21日在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>财报【业绩+资本开支】超预期、国资委部署央企“AI+”等消息的刺激下，港股市场高开高走，最终恒生指数、恒生科技分别收涨3.99%、6.53%；周涨幅分别为3.79%、6.03%；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">阿里巴巴-W</a>周五及当周涨幅分别达14.56%、11.60%。与此同时，市场的波动和分歧也有所加大。</p><p>在此之前，历史上共26次出现恒生科技单日上涨6%以上，其中20次为下跌市中的反弹或行情底部启动初期（2022年之后更加频繁），6次出现在上行行情中的加速阶段。从历史经验来看，加速阶段6%+以上大涨之后，未来1-2周的下跌概率更高，而1个月维度的表现无明显规律。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/166599fc8851261e7ca5726fcaa2d13b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"631\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8dd61c694872ead7cab7efc798260c13\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"517\"/></p><p><strong>二、26个交易日后港股估值水平</strong></p><p>1月中以来启动的港股行情，是2024年以来出现的第三次快速上涨。截至2月21日收盘，本轮行情已持续26个交易日，恒生指数和恒生科技涨幅分别达24.4%、38.8%，全面超过2024年4月-5月行情。2024年9-10月涨幅更大，速度更快，但类似行情要复制可能较难。我们统计中国、美国、日本、中国香港、中国台湾、法国、英国、德国、韩国、印度共10个股票市场1990年以来的行情，单周出现20%+涨幅案例仅出现过12次，且其中10次来自于系统性金融风险后的报复性上涨。</p><p>以恒生指数ERP（1/PE-中美十年期国债加权利率）衡量当前的估值位置。截至2月21日收盘，恒生指数ERP回落至6.2%，小幅突破三年ERP均值-1.5X标准差。与24年两轮行情比较来看：</p><p>2024年5月20日股价高点对应恒生指数ERP跌至6.1%，正处于-1.5X标准差位置，随后市场开启调整；2024年10月7日股价高点对应恒生指数ERP跌至5.6%，跌破-1.5X标准差位置，但也仅在下方停留4个交易日，随后市场开启调整。</p><p><strong>静态测算：</strong></p><p>（1）如果ERP回到-1.5X标准差位置，对应涨幅-1.0%；</p><p>（2）如果ERP回到去年5月20日绝对水平，对应涨幅+1.5%；</p><p>（3）如果ERP回到去年10月7日绝对水平，对应涨幅+6.8%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4b68f9fc51eb511eeed6919bb7ba3c6c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"642\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1c8c45f4a80c67cc42b9efb8ce2838bb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"717\"/></p><p>全球横向比较来看，恒生指数和H股50指数在本轮上涨之后，PE分位数均来到过去10年的中高位置（图3）；尤其H股50指数在互联网行情推动下，PE分位数升至90%以上。</p><p>但从估值合理性来看，全球比较下港股估值水平仍相对合理（图4）；同时也要看到，限制中国资产估值中枢上移的主要因素仍是盈利水平。制造业为主体的东亚经济体+德国市场都有类似问题，即低盈利匹配低估值。</p><p>行业及重点估值水平详见图5-6。其中图5展示了A股、港股、美股GICS分类下的【当前PB&amp;普通股本回报率2025E】;图6按照分析师评级家数筛选机构关注度最高的重点个股。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5f042fc480ceed96eb458742e0ad3c26\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"668\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a7f67c2c3a937769986b5463affb23ed\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"707\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9547a264dcbb180ea268d3c1d029c409\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"749\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5612e1be673c0a3f3335a7ffc7afb670\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"663\"/></p><p><strong>三、关注3月之后交易逻辑的转变</strong></p><p>从政策、财报、开工、流动性的日历规律出发，每年四季度→一季度的交易逻辑大致为：9-10月交易三季报高增长+秋季开工成色；11月之后开工转淡+财报空窗，交易12月政策预期及由此带来的估值切换行情；12月政策定调，围绕预期与现实、对政策定调的理解分歧博弈；年末年初政策无增量信息、基本面相对模糊，行情主要由政策预期、流动性、科技主题驱动；3月之后全年政策分工落地、港股年报初步公告披露、春季开工启动，市场逐步切换至景气度交易。</p><p>过去2个月港股行情对基本面和估值都有脱敏现象。一方面是对美联储降息预期和美债利率脱敏。去年11月特朗普交易2.0启动以来，至今年1月中之前，恒生指数与联储降息1次概率有明显的镜像特征（过去3个月，美联储全年降息预期在1-2次——即25bp-50bp之间反复），而在过去1个月中，港股走势未再受联储政策预期波动影响。</p><p>另一方面是对基本面脱敏，由于港股市值结构中金融周期占比较高（互联网板块也有一定的顺周期属性），历史长区间里，港股估值与反映实体景气度的中长期贷款增速具有高度正相关性（图8，2005-2023年二者相关系数高达0.66）。这层关系自去年以来有一定松绑，今年前两个月背离更大——24H1港股资讯科技业净利润增速接近翻倍，是支撑港股科技核心资产企稳的关键因素；今年恒生互联网业绩基数抬高的情况下，宏观基本面的作用可能边际加大。</p><p>因此对短期市场，我们认为纯粹的主题躁动阶段可能已在尾声，市场交易逻辑将逐步切换至实质的基本面兑现，前期涨幅较大的科技成长板块波动或加剧。港股盈利结构中顺周期（地产链）占比高，持续性的牛市有赖于基本面修复确认。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/244805fb3212091f53f5f75aa5dba047\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"472\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7af80227133450a4fcd05ca79a7b9180\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"673\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fd1232b8b8cad67a6ef4589600df387b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"679\"/></p><p>本文作者：刘晨明：SAC 执证号：S0260524020001、许向真：SAC 执证号：S0260524030005，来源：晨明的策略深度思考，原文标题：《晨明的策略深度思考》</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1677483298056","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>恒生科技单日上涨6%+后的表现规律：未来1-2周下跌概率更高，1个月维度表现无明显规律</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n恒生科技单日上涨6%+后的表现规律：未来1-2周下跌概率更高，1个月维度表现无明显规律\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-02-24 08:30 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxNjAwNTMwNQ==&mid=2652380585&idx=1&sn=bae648fbda62cda60c0f2a4f37ec87b7&chksm=8140e8eaacaed8bd83a866c6406a1aa5d66b23acd74abf7a6ef140c879679b9c31dacd7da6b4&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=02249PbNfj696VMPaFFThEAS&sharer_shareinfo=2f93c4982801051e916cd10c4105735f&sharer_shareinfo_first=2f93c4982801051e916cd10c4105735f#rd><strong>晨明的策略深度...</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>摘要1.恒生科技历史上单日上涨6%+以后港股表现规律：2月21日港股市场高开高走，最终恒生指数、恒生科技分别收涨3.99%、6.53%。在此之前，历史上共26次出现恒生科技单日上涨6%以上，其中20次为下跌市中的反弹或行情底部启动初期（2022年之后更加频繁），6次出现在上行行情中的加速阶段。从历史经验来看，加速阶段6%+以上大涨之后，未来1-2周的下跌概率更高，而1个月维度的表现无明显规律。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxNjAwNTMwNQ==&mid=2652380585&idx=1&sn=bae648fbda62cda60c0f2a4f37ec87b7&chksm=8140e8eaacaed8bd83a866c6406a1aa5d66b23acd74abf7a6ef140c879679b9c31dacd7da6b4&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=02249PbNfj696VMPaFFThEAS&sharer_shareinfo=2f93c4982801051e916cd10c4105735f&sharer_shareinfo_first=2f93c4982801051e916cd10c4105735f#rd\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e75a490c64a311ec7caec9c5c95c2a5","relate_stocks":{"HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","03033":"南方恒生科技","BK1610":"ETF&股票定投概念"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxNjAwNTMwNQ==&mid=2652380585&idx=1&sn=bae648fbda62cda60c0f2a4f37ec87b7&chksm=8140e8eaacaed8bd83a866c6406a1aa5d66b23acd74abf7a6ef140c879679b9c31dacd7da6b4&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=02249PbNfj696VMPaFFThEAS&sharer_shareinfo=2f93c4982801051e916cd10c4105735f&sharer_shareinfo_first=2f93c4982801051e916cd10c4105735f#rd","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2513769151","content_text":"摘要1.恒生科技历史上单日上涨6%+以后港股表现规律：2月21日港股市场高开高走，最终恒生指数、恒生科技分别收涨3.99%、6.53%。在此之前，历史上共26次出现恒生科技单日上涨6%以上，其中20次为下跌市中的反弹或行情底部启动初期（2022年之后更加频繁），6次出现在上行行情中的加速阶段。从历史经验来看，加速阶段6%+以上大涨之后，未来1-2周的下跌概率更高，而1个月维度的表现无明显规律。2.26个交易日后港股估值水平：截止2月21日收盘，本轮行情已持续26个交易日，恒生指数和恒生科技涨幅分别达24.4%、38.8%，全面超过2024年4月-5月行情，但仍低于2024年9-10月行情。以恒生指数EPR衡量当前估值合理性，截止2月21收盘，恒生指数ERP回落至6.2%，小幅突破过去三年ERP均值-1.5X标准差。静态测算，ERP【回到-1.5X标准差位置】、【回到去年5月20日绝对水平】、【回到去年10月7日绝对水平】三种水平下分别对应涨跌幅-1.0%、+1.5%、+6.8%。全球横向比较来看，恒生指数和H股50指数在本轮上涨之后，市盈率分位数均来到过去10年的中高位置；尤其H股50指数在互联网行情推动下，市盈率分位数升至90%以上。但从估值合理性来看，全球比较下港股估值水平仍相对合理；同时也要看到，限制中国资产估值中枢上移的主要因素仍是盈利水平。3.关注3月之后交易逻辑的转变：从政策、财报、开工、流动性的日历规律出发，3月之后全年政策分工落地、港股年报初步公告披露、春季开工启动，市场逐步切换至景气度交易。对短期市场，我们认为纯粹的主题躁动阶段可能已在尾声，市场交易逻辑将逐步切换至实质的基本面兑现，前期涨幅较大的科技成长板块波动或加剧。港股盈利结构中顺周期（地产链）占比高，持续性的牛市有赖于基本面修复确认。风险提示：产业层面技术进步不及预期；海外经济形势恶化、美股调整带来的负面影响；国际政治环境变化（中美摩擦、地缘政治等）带来额外冲击等；国内经济增长及稳增长政策不及预期（出口超预期受海外需求拖累、地产消费信心难恢复等）。报告正文一、恒生科技历史上单日上涨6%+以后港股表现规律2月21日在阿里巴巴财报【业绩+资本开支】超预期、国资委部署央企“AI+”等消息的刺激下，港股市场高开高走，最终恒生指数、恒生科技分别收涨3.99%、6.53%；周涨幅分别为3.79%、6.03%；阿里巴巴-W周五及当周涨幅分别达14.56%、11.60%。与此同时，市场的波动和分歧也有所加大。在此之前，历史上共26次出现恒生科技单日上涨6%以上，其中20次为下跌市中的反弹或行情底部启动初期（2022年之后更加频繁），6次出现在上行行情中的加速阶段。从历史经验来看，加速阶段6%+以上大涨之后，未来1-2周的下跌概率更高，而1个月维度的表现无明显规律。二、26个交易日后港股估值水平1月中以来启动的港股行情，是2024年以来出现的第三次快速上涨。截至2月21日收盘，本轮行情已持续26个交易日，恒生指数和恒生科技涨幅分别达24.4%、38.8%，全面超过2024年4月-5月行情。2024年9-10月涨幅更大，速度更快，但类似行情要复制可能较难。我们统计中国、美国、日本、中国香港、中国台湾、法国、英国、德国、韩国、印度共10个股票市场1990年以来的行情，单周出现20%+涨幅案例仅出现过12次，且其中10次来自于系统性金融风险后的报复性上涨。以恒生指数ERP（1/PE-中美十年期国债加权利率）衡量当前的估值位置。截至2月21日收盘，恒生指数ERP回落至6.2%，小幅突破三年ERP均值-1.5X标准差。与24年两轮行情比较来看：2024年5月20日股价高点对应恒生指数ERP跌至6.1%，正处于-1.5X标准差位置，随后市场开启调整；2024年10月7日股价高点对应恒生指数ERP跌至5.6%，跌破-1.5X标准差位置，但也仅在下方停留4个交易日，随后市场开启调整。静态测算：（1）如果ERP回到-1.5X标准差位置，对应涨幅-1.0%；（2）如果ERP回到去年5月20日绝对水平，对应涨幅+1.5%；（3）如果ERP回到去年10月7日绝对水平，对应涨幅+6.8%。全球横向比较来看，恒生指数和H股50指数在本轮上涨之后，PE分位数均来到过去10年的中高位置（图3）；尤其H股50指数在互联网行情推动下，PE分位数升至90%以上。但从估值合理性来看，全球比较下港股估值水平仍相对合理（图4）；同时也要看到，限制中国资产估值中枢上移的主要因素仍是盈利水平。制造业为主体的东亚经济体+德国市场都有类似问题，即低盈利匹配低估值。行业及重点估值水平详见图5-6。其中图5展示了A股、港股、美股GICS分类下的【当前PB&普通股本回报率2025E】;图6按照分析师评级家数筛选机构关注度最高的重点个股。三、关注3月之后交易逻辑的转变从政策、财报、开工、流动性的日历规律出发，每年四季度→一季度的交易逻辑大致为：9-10月交易三季报高增长+秋季开工成色；11月之后开工转淡+财报空窗，交易12月政策预期及由此带来的估值切换行情；12月政策定调，围绕预期与现实、对政策定调的理解分歧博弈；年末年初政策无增量信息、基本面相对模糊，行情主要由政策预期、流动性、科技主题驱动；3月之后全年政策分工落地、港股年报初步公告披露、春季开工启动，市场逐步切换至景气度交易。过去2个月港股行情对基本面和估值都有脱敏现象。一方面是对美联储降息预期和美债利率脱敏。去年11月特朗普交易2.0启动以来，至今年1月中之前，恒生指数与联储降息1次概率有明显的镜像特征（过去3个月，美联储全年降息预期在1-2次——即25bp-50bp之间反复），而在过去1个月中，港股走势未再受联储政策预期波动影响。另一方面是对基本面脱敏，由于港股市值结构中金融周期占比较高（互联网板块也有一定的顺周期属性），历史长区间里，港股估值与反映实体景气度的中长期贷款增速具有高度正相关性（图8，2005-2023年二者相关系数高达0.66）。这层关系自去年以来有一定松绑，今年前两个月背离更大——24H1港股资讯科技业净利润增速接近翻倍，是支撑港股科技核心资产企稳的关键因素；今年恒生互联网业绩基数抬高的情况下，宏观基本面的作用可能边际加大。因此对短期市场，我们认为纯粹的主题躁动阶段可能已在尾声，市场交易逻辑将逐步切换至实质的基本面兑现，前期涨幅较大的科技成长板块波动或加剧。港股盈利结构中顺周期（地产链）占比高，持续性的牛市有赖于基本面修复确认。本文作者：刘晨明：SAC 执证号：S0260524020001、许向真：SAC 执证号：S0260524030005，来源：晨明的策略深度思考，原文标题：《晨明的策略深度思考》","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSTECH":1.1,"03033":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3734,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":405979117654256,"gmtCreate":1740142367539,"gmtModify":1740143518891,"author":{"id":"3577074479133155","authorId":"3577074479133155","name":"建华003","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577074479133155","idStr":"3577074479133155"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/FI1ONBJlZ5-AQkg4BSPcmg 太有意思了 来看","listText":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/FI1ONBJlZ5-AQkg4BSPcmg 太有意思了 来看","text":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/FI1ONBJlZ5-AQkg4BSPcmg 太有意思了 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