Stockdapper的个人主页 - 老虎社区

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2021-08-24

Super $GEVO

2021-08-24

Come on!!!

2021-06-27

Prefer Ford

Ford Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote>

2021-06-27

Any chance to go higher? $BLCI, $GEVO

2021-06-26

My fav GEVO

2021-06-24

$Gevo(GEVO)$lets go again.

2021-06-22

$Gevo(GEVO)$love GEVO

2021-06-19

Yeah$Orbital Energy Group(OEG)$

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-19

$Gevo(GEVO)$next is GEVO week

2021-06-19

Hmm. It's it time to cash out?

Adobe Getting Lift From Economic Reopening Post-Pandemic<blockquote>Adobe 从疫情后经济重新开放中获得提振</blockquote>

2021-06-19

Let's go WISH.

2021-06-19

Sure cool down abit and up next week.

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-18

Great stock

2021-06-17

Let's go Gevo

2021-06-16

??? No want wants Dividend?

2021-06-08

Dangerous

Warning Signs A Correction Is Ahead<blockquote>调整即将到来的警告信号</blockquote>

2021-06-08

Gevo Strong

2021-06-07

GEVO is coming

2021-05-17

Up up

2021-04-08

Tesla go down[龇牙] [龇牙] [龇牙] [龇牙] [龇牙] [龇牙]

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$GEVO","listText":"Super $GEVO","text":"Super $GEVO","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b05cca57c15e4e77978e262c5de39e20","width":"1080","height":"2172"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/834428896","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1365,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":834428310,"gmtCreate":1629820491030,"gmtModify":1631889569756,"author":{"id":"3577057278686923","authorId":"3577057278686923","name":"Stockdapper","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f8b006637b4ffc3dd4d813922d34a8e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577057278686923","idStr":"3577057278686923"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Come on!!!","listText":"Come on!!!","text":"Come on!!!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/857e2892eda128975e40e636c567e9f6","width":"1080","height":"2172"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/834428310","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3555,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124793437,"gmtCreate":1624788976429,"gmtModify":1631884993716,"author":{"id":"3577057278686923","authorId":"3577057278686923","name":"Stockdapper","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f8b006637b4ffc3dd4d813922d34a8e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577057278686923","idStr":"3577057278686923"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Prefer Ford","listText":"Prefer Ford","text":"Prefer Ford","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124793437","repostId":"1137119316","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137119316","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624754401,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1137119316?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-27 08:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Ford Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137119316","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.With Ford  launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO  will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.</li>  <li>The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.</li>  <li>NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5033fa117d7852799244b8275bc1000f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"886\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我在不同的类别中比较福特和蔚来。</li><li>此次比较旨在增进对福特和蔚来增长潜力的了解，同时突出市场地位和机遇的差异。</li><li>蔚来的增长速度比福特快得多，高估值可能是合理的。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.</p><p><blockquote>随着福特公司（F）在电动汽车市场发起重大攻势，中国电动汽车制造商蔚来（蔚来）未来将面临另一个竞争对手争夺销量。根据市场机会、规模、收入模式、增长前景和估值，哪家汽车制造商提供了最好的交易？我将在每个类别中比较福特和蔚来，并在最后给出最终结论。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ford vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>福特与蔚来：全球电动汽车市场之争正在升温</b></blockquote></p><p> Although there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing&nbsp;$30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.</p><p><blockquote>尽管福特和蔚来之间存在天壤之别，但两家公司都将在快速增长的全球电动汽车市场展开较量。福特的车队还没有以电动汽车为重点，但这种情况将会改变： 福特感觉到电动汽车竞赛正在升温，因此表示将加快其电气化计划，在 2025 年前投资 300 亿美元用于电动汽车制造能力。福特之前的资本计划要求投资 220 亿美元用于零排放汽车。福特还设定了一个雄心勃勃的销售目标：未来十年，其全球销量的 40% 将是电动汽车，皮卡车销量的 33% 将是电动汽车。目前，电动汽车销量仅占福特销量的 1%。随着福特逐步淘汰内燃机，它将在 2040 年发展成为一家全电动汽车制造商。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market opportunity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p> In 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，全球电动汽车销量为320万辆，市场份额仅为4.2%。然而，2020 年，中国购买了全球 41% 的电动汽车。去年，中国买家购买了 130 万辆电动汽车，随着北京寻求促进电动汽车的普及，销量将快速增长。电动汽车的第二大市场是欧洲，占全球电动汽车销量的42%。美国只是全球第三大插电式电动汽车市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b48c23b32134542f51227d9b1b612887\" tg-width=\"1083\" tg-height=\"863\"><span>(Source: Wikipedia)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：维基百科）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> China, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is&nbsp;on the cusp of entering the European market&nbsp;in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，中国是世界上增长最快的电动汽车市场，尽管欧洲正在迅速迎头赶上，部分原因是立法努力增加零排放乘用车的采用，以及对欧洲范围内充电站网络的大量投资。蔚来正处于进军欧洲市场的风口浪尖，希望在竞争准备就绪之前扩大其在世界第二大电动汽车市场的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> Beijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a&nbsp;twenty percent share&nbsp;of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.</p><p><blockquote>中国政府是蔚来汽车工业电气化的推动者： 中国政府希望到 2025 年，电动汽车在新车销售中所占份额达到 20%，这将推动电动汽车在中国本土市场的普及。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9871e44eaf69adb27151425887870ace\" tg-width=\"739\" tg-height=\"454\"><span>(Source:Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Turning to growth projections.</p><p><blockquote>转向增长预测。</blockquote></p><p> With more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.</p><p><blockquote>随着中国和欧洲等地政府对电动汽车制造商采取更有利的政策，这些市场将迎来世界上最快的销售增长和最高的电动汽车采用率。由于人口规模，中国不仅是最大的市场，而且预计到2030年，电动汽车销量将超过全球所有其他市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61d19dff2f34e2d8828aca854e85d84a\" tg-width=\"825\" tg-height=\"565\"><span>(Source:McKinsey)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：麦肯锡）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>由于中国拥有更大的总市场规模、更高的电动汽车采用率、更强劲的预期销售增长和更有利的监管框架，这里的赢家将是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Scale and manufacturing competence</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模和制造能力</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.</p><p><blockquote>福特拥有百年的制造经验。但到目前为止，福特的产品阵容中只有一款与蔚来相比的全电动汽车：野马 Mach-E SUV。2022 年，福特将开始销售全电动 F-150 Lightening，该车建立在福特最畅销皮卡车的成功基础上。蔚来已经拥有更强大的产品目录，包括5座ES6 SUV、5座轿跑车SUV EC6以及6座和7座全尺寸SUV ES8。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Since NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.</p><p><blockquote>由于蔚来只专注于生产电动汽车，并且占据了一个非常小且明确的利基市场，这家中国公司在电动汽车制造专业知识方面具有优势。问题是这种优势能持续多久。福特在制造汽车方面拥有丰富的经验，可以利用全球制造基地以比任何利基电动汽车制造商希望实现的速度更快地提高电动汽车产量。这使得福特不仅在美国是特斯拉（TSLA）的有力竞争对手，而且在国外也是蔚来的有力竞争对手。福特正在加速其电气化计划，它有资源和雄心在未来十年内成为电动汽车的领导者。福特提议斥资 300 亿美元用于车队电气化，这将加速其转型，并使福特成为其他电动汽车制造商的长期威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Winner here: Ford.</p><p><blockquote>这里的赢家：福特。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Differentiation and BaaS revenue model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>差异化与BaaS收入模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来都知道差异化在这个市场中的重要性，随着时间的推移，这个市场只会变得更加竞争，这就是为什么两家公司都在一个相关领域大力投资，这个领域可以打破或巩固电动汽车市场的主导地位：电池技术。</blockquote></p><p> Ford is&nbsp;forming a joint venture&nbsp;with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has&nbsp;formed its own joint venture&nbsp;to secure battery supply.</p><p><blockquote>福特正在与韩国电池技术公司 SK Innovation 成立一家合资企业，以确保牵引电池芯和阵列模块的供应。该合资企业旨在加快电池交付速度，年产量约为 60 GWh，足以满足福特到 2030 年预计年能源需求的 25%。蔚来也在投资电池技术，并组建了自己的合资企业来确保电池供应。</blockquote></p><p> The difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.</p><p><blockquote>与福特不同的是，蔚来的电池投资战略围绕着电池订阅模式，也称为 “电池即服务 ”，这为这家中国汽车制造商创造了一个强大的长期收入机会。在这种 “BaaS” 模式下，用户购买蔚来电动汽车可获得 7 万元人民币的初始折扣，折合 1.08 万美元，并可签约包月租赁 70 千瓦时的可充电电池。然后可以在蔚来的换电站更换电池，这些换电站在中国大多数大城市都有。电池订阅费用为每月980元人民币，相当于150美元。</blockquote></p><p> The BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.</p><p><blockquote>BaaS模式对汽车制造商和用户都有几个好处：由于前期折扣，从蔚来购买电动汽车变得更加实惠，订阅模式确保用户受益于电池技术的进步和随着时间的推移更好的性能。将电池成本与汽车价格脱钩，为蔚来创造了一个全新的订阅收入流。“BaaS ”订阅的收入可用于增加蔚来充电/换电站网络的密度。电池订阅模式还将客户绑定到蔚来，从而潜在地增加客户的终身价值。</blockquote></p><p> Ford and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>随着福特和蔚来增加资本配置，它们有望从电动汽车电池成本下降中受益。随着越来越多的投资流入开发更高效的电池，性能将会提高，成本将会下降，这应该会推动电动汽车的采用并使所有电动汽车制造商受益。这是因为较低的电池价格使电动汽车比内燃机乘用车更具竞争力。但由于蔚来明确围绕电池订阅构建部分商业模式，蔚来可能会比福特受益更多。</blockquote></p><p> Battery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.</p><p><blockquote>根据投资公司施罗德提供的信息，自 2014 年以来，电动汽车的电池成本已下降 70%，并且本十年还将进一步下降。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c42acb75905affe7570a2f399ea3192f\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"449\"><span>(Source: Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>“BaaS ”模式是天才之作，从长远来看，它可能会发展成为蔚来每年 5 亿美元的收入机会。尽管福特正在加大对电池技术的投资，但这一类别的赢家是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sales growth and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>销售增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.</p><p><blockquote>福特 5 月份的销量同比增长 4.1%，但电动汽车销量（包括混合动力汽车）同比激增 184%，福特 5 月份售出了创纪录的 10,364 辆电动汽车/混合动力汽车。Escape electrified 和 Explorer Hybrid 的销量分别同比增长 125% 和 132%，显示出强劲的客户吸引力。蔚来上个月交付了 6,711 辆汽车，其中包括 3,017 辆 ES6、1,412 辆 ES8 和 2,282 辆 EC6。5 月份总交付量同比增长 95.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Ford's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.</p><p><blockquote>福特的销量是蔚来汽车的54倍，这为蔚来创造了更多的销售增长和重估潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df5a0a393e44ed74241c5effcdd92350\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来之间的估值差异就像黑夜和白天之间的差异。这是因为尽管电动汽车类别实现了爆炸式增长，但福特仍被视为一家成熟的汽车制造商，预计企业销量增长将达到中低位数。福特预计到 2025 财年（基准年：2020 财年）收入将增长 33%，蔚来将增长 808%!</blockquote></p><p> Due to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>由于销售增长的这些差异，蔚来与福特完全相反，至少就估值而言是这样。这家中国电动汽车制造商预计今年的销量和交付量将增长接近 100%，由于蔚来只销售电动汽车，蔚来的市值与销量之比远高于福特。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/817605c6b1e82c03d0473ea570d32b8f\" tg-width=\"506\" tg-height=\"406\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO has larger risks...</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来有更大的风险……</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来是风险更大的企业，但也是最有希望的企业。政府政策有利于蔚来等电动汽车制造商。与福特相比，蔚来的全球总销售额增长潜力更大，因为它的营收基础较小。但也有一些事情对蔚来不利。例如，与可以依赖全球服务和分销网络的福特相比，由于生产缺陷导致的召回对于蔚来来说将是一个更大的挑战。蔚来的估值也并非没有风险，因为生产受挫导致销售增长意外放缓，将对财务状况造成更大影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final verdict</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最终判决</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来绝对是更 “性感 ”的汽车制造商。在中国和欧洲的强劲采用率和销售增长支持了蔚来。其超级智能BaaS模型将车辆购买价格与电池成本脱钩，堪称天才。你为这种增长付出了高昂的代价，但蔚来的市场机会是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> Ford’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.</p><p><blockquote>福特的电动汽车销量正在蓬勃发展，随着该汽车制造商车队电气化，电动汽车销量的比例也将不断增加。福特在电动汽车市场潜力巨大，但由于电动汽车销量占总销量的比例仍然相对较低，福特需要很长时间才能完成转型。</blockquote></p><p> If you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.</p><p><blockquote>如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力，请购买蔚来。如果你相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力，又不喜欢太大的风险，那就买福特吧。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ford Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFord Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-27 08:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.</li>  <li>The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.</li>  <li>NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5033fa117d7852799244b8275bc1000f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"886\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我在不同的类别中比较福特和蔚来。</li><li>此次比较旨在增进对福特和蔚来增长潜力的了解，同时突出市场地位和机遇的差异。</li><li>蔚来的增长速度比福特快得多，高估值可能是合理的。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.</p><p><blockquote>随着福特公司（F）在电动汽车市场发起重大攻势，中国电动汽车制造商蔚来（蔚来）未来将面临另一个竞争对手争夺销量。根据市场机会、规模、收入模式、增长前景和估值，哪家汽车制造商提供了最好的交易？我将在每个类别中比较福特和蔚来，并在最后给出最终结论。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ford vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>福特与蔚来：全球电动汽车市场之争正在升温</b></blockquote></p><p> Although there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing&nbsp;$30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.</p><p><blockquote>尽管福特和蔚来之间存在天壤之别，但两家公司都将在快速增长的全球电动汽车市场展开较量。福特的车队还没有以电动汽车为重点，但这种情况将会改变： 福特感觉到电动汽车竞赛正在升温，因此表示将加快其电气化计划，在 2025 年前投资 300 亿美元用于电动汽车制造能力。福特之前的资本计划要求投资 220 亿美元用于零排放汽车。福特还设定了一个雄心勃勃的销售目标：未来十年，其全球销量的 40% 将是电动汽车，皮卡车销量的 33% 将是电动汽车。目前，电动汽车销量仅占福特销量的 1%。随着福特逐步淘汰内燃机，它将在 2040 年发展成为一家全电动汽车制造商。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market opportunity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p> In 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，全球电动汽车销量为320万辆，市场份额仅为4.2%。然而，2020 年，中国购买了全球 41% 的电动汽车。去年，中国买家购买了 130 万辆电动汽车，随着北京寻求促进电动汽车的普及，销量将快速增长。电动汽车的第二大市场是欧洲，占全球电动汽车销量的42%。美国只是全球第三大插电式电动汽车市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b48c23b32134542f51227d9b1b612887\" tg-width=\"1083\" tg-height=\"863\"><span>(Source: Wikipedia)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：维基百科）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> China, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is&nbsp;on the cusp of entering the European market&nbsp;in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，中国是世界上增长最快的电动汽车市场，尽管欧洲正在迅速迎头赶上，部分原因是立法努力增加零排放乘用车的采用，以及对欧洲范围内充电站网络的大量投资。蔚来正处于进军欧洲市场的风口浪尖，希望在竞争准备就绪之前扩大其在世界第二大电动汽车市场的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> Beijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a&nbsp;twenty percent share&nbsp;of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.</p><p><blockquote>中国政府是蔚来汽车工业电气化的推动者： 中国政府希望到 2025 年，电动汽车在新车销售中所占份额达到 20%，这将推动电动汽车在中国本土市场的普及。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9871e44eaf69adb27151425887870ace\" tg-width=\"739\" tg-height=\"454\"><span>(Source:Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Turning to growth projections.</p><p><blockquote>转向增长预测。</blockquote></p><p> With more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.</p><p><blockquote>随着中国和欧洲等地政府对电动汽车制造商采取更有利的政策，这些市场将迎来世界上最快的销售增长和最高的电动汽车采用率。由于人口规模，中国不仅是最大的市场，而且预计到2030年，电动汽车销量将超过全球所有其他市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61d19dff2f34e2d8828aca854e85d84a\" tg-width=\"825\" tg-height=\"565\"><span>(Source:McKinsey)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：麦肯锡）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>由于中国拥有更大的总市场规模、更高的电动汽车采用率、更强劲的预期销售增长和更有利的监管框架，这里的赢家将是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Scale and manufacturing competence</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模和制造能力</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.</p><p><blockquote>福特拥有百年的制造经验。但到目前为止，福特的产品阵容中只有一款与蔚来相比的全电动汽车：野马 Mach-E SUV。2022 年，福特将开始销售全电动 F-150 Lightening，该车建立在福特最畅销皮卡车的成功基础上。蔚来已经拥有更强大的产品目录，包括5座ES6 SUV、5座轿跑车SUV EC6以及6座和7座全尺寸SUV ES8。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Since NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.</p><p><blockquote>由于蔚来只专注于生产电动汽车，并且占据了一个非常小且明确的利基市场，这家中国公司在电动汽车制造专业知识方面具有优势。问题是这种优势能持续多久。福特在制造汽车方面拥有丰富的经验，可以利用全球制造基地以比任何利基电动汽车制造商希望实现的速度更快地提高电动汽车产量。这使得福特不仅在美国是特斯拉（TSLA）的有力竞争对手，而且在国外也是蔚来的有力竞争对手。福特正在加速其电气化计划，它有资源和雄心在未来十年内成为电动汽车的领导者。福特提议斥资 300 亿美元用于车队电气化，这将加速其转型，并使福特成为其他电动汽车制造商的长期威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Winner here: Ford.</p><p><blockquote>这里的赢家：福特。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Differentiation and BaaS revenue model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>差异化与BaaS收入模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来都知道差异化在这个市场中的重要性，随着时间的推移，这个市场只会变得更加竞争，这就是为什么两家公司都在一个相关领域大力投资，这个领域可以打破或巩固电动汽车市场的主导地位：电池技术。</blockquote></p><p> Ford is&nbsp;forming a joint venture&nbsp;with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has&nbsp;formed its own joint venture&nbsp;to secure battery supply.</p><p><blockquote>福特正在与韩国电池技术公司 SK Innovation 成立一家合资企业，以确保牵引电池芯和阵列模块的供应。该合资企业旨在加快电池交付速度，年产量约为 60 GWh，足以满足福特到 2030 年预计年能源需求的 25%。蔚来也在投资电池技术，并组建了自己的合资企业来确保电池供应。</blockquote></p><p> The difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.</p><p><blockquote>与福特不同的是，蔚来的电池投资战略围绕着电池订阅模式，也称为 “电池即服务 ”，这为这家中国汽车制造商创造了一个强大的长期收入机会。在这种 “BaaS” 模式下，用户购买蔚来电动汽车可获得 7 万元人民币的初始折扣，折合 1.08 万美元，并可签约包月租赁 70 千瓦时的可充电电池。然后可以在蔚来的换电站更换电池，这些换电站在中国大多数大城市都有。电池订阅费用为每月980元人民币，相当于150美元。</blockquote></p><p> The BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.</p><p><blockquote>BaaS模式对汽车制造商和用户都有几个好处：由于前期折扣，从蔚来购买电动汽车变得更加实惠，订阅模式确保用户受益于电池技术的进步和随着时间的推移更好的性能。将电池成本与汽车价格脱钩，为蔚来创造了一个全新的订阅收入流。“BaaS ”订阅的收入可用于增加蔚来充电/换电站网络的密度。电池订阅模式还将客户绑定到蔚来，从而潜在地增加客户的终身价值。</blockquote></p><p> Ford and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>随着福特和蔚来增加资本配置，它们有望从电动汽车电池成本下降中受益。随着越来越多的投资流入开发更高效的电池，性能将会提高，成本将会下降，这应该会推动电动汽车的采用并使所有电动汽车制造商受益。这是因为较低的电池价格使电动汽车比内燃机乘用车更具竞争力。但由于蔚来明确围绕电池订阅构建部分商业模式，蔚来可能会比福特受益更多。</blockquote></p><p> Battery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.</p><p><blockquote>根据投资公司施罗德提供的信息，自 2014 年以来，电动汽车的电池成本已下降 70%，并且本十年还将进一步下降。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c42acb75905affe7570a2f399ea3192f\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"449\"><span>(Source: Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>“BaaS ”模式是天才之作，从长远来看，它可能会发展成为蔚来每年 5 亿美元的收入机会。尽管福特正在加大对电池技术的投资，但这一类别的赢家是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sales growth and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>销售增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.</p><p><blockquote>福特 5 月份的销量同比增长 4.1%，但电动汽车销量（包括混合动力汽车）同比激增 184%，福特 5 月份售出了创纪录的 10,364 辆电动汽车/混合动力汽车。Escape electrified 和 Explorer Hybrid 的销量分别同比增长 125% 和 132%，显示出强劲的客户吸引力。蔚来上个月交付了 6,711 辆汽车，其中包括 3,017 辆 ES6、1,412 辆 ES8 和 2,282 辆 EC6。5 月份总交付量同比增长 95.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Ford's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.</p><p><blockquote>福特的销量是蔚来汽车的54倍，这为蔚来创造了更多的销售增长和重估潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df5a0a393e44ed74241c5effcdd92350\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来之间的估值差异就像黑夜和白天之间的差异。这是因为尽管电动汽车类别实现了爆炸式增长，但福特仍被视为一家成熟的汽车制造商，预计企业销量增长将达到中低位数。福特预计到 2025 财年（基准年：2020 财年）收入将增长 33%，蔚来将增长 808%!</blockquote></p><p> Due to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>由于销售增长的这些差异，蔚来与福特完全相反，至少就估值而言是这样。这家中国电动汽车制造商预计今年的销量和交付量将增长接近 100%，由于蔚来只销售电动汽车，蔚来的市值与销量之比远高于福特。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/817605c6b1e82c03d0473ea570d32b8f\" tg-width=\"506\" tg-height=\"406\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO has larger risks...</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来有更大的风险……</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来是风险更大的企业，但也是最有希望的企业。政府政策有利于蔚来等电动汽车制造商。与福特相比，蔚来的全球总销售额增长潜力更大，因为它的营收基础较小。但也有一些事情对蔚来不利。例如，与可以依赖全球服务和分销网络的福特相比，由于生产缺陷导致的召回对于蔚来来说将是一个更大的挑战。蔚来的估值也并非没有风险，因为生产受挫导致销售增长意外放缓，将对财务状况造成更大影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final verdict</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最终判决</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来绝对是更 “性感 ”的汽车制造商。在中国和欧洲的强劲采用率和销售增长支持了蔚来。其超级智能BaaS模型将车辆购买价格与电池成本脱钩，堪称天才。你为这种增长付出了高昂的代价，但蔚来的市场机会是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> Ford’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.</p><p><blockquote>福特的电动汽车销量正在蓬勃发展，随着该汽车制造商车队电气化，电动汽车销量的比例也将不断增加。福特在电动汽车市场潜力巨大，但由于电动汽车销量占总销量的比例仍然相对较低，福特需要很长时间才能完成转型。</blockquote></p><p> If you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.</p><p><blockquote>如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力，请购买蔚来。如果你相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力，又不喜欢太大的风险，那就买福特吧。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436600-ford-or-nio-the-final-verdict\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"F":"福特汽车","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436600-ford-or-nio-the-final-verdict","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137119316","content_text":"Summary\n\nI am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.\nThe comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.\nNIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.\n\npeterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images\nWith Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.\nFord vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up\nAlthough there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing $30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.\nMarket opportunity\nIn 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.\n(Source: Wikipedia)\nChina, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is on the cusp of entering the European market in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.\nBeijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a twenty percent share of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.\n(Source:Schroders)\nTurning to growth projections.\nWith more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.\n(Source:McKinsey)\nSince China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.\nScale and manufacturing competence\nFord has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.\nSince NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.\nWinner here: Ford.\nDifferentiation and BaaS revenue model\nBoth Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.\nFord is forming a joint venture with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has formed its own joint venture to secure battery supply.\nThe difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.\nThe BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.\nFord and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.\nBattery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.\n(Source: Schroders)\nThe “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.\nSales growth and valuation\nFord’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.\nFord's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.\nData by YCharts\nThe difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!\nDue to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.\n(Source: Author)\nNIO has larger risks...\nNIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.\nFinal verdict\nNIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.\nFord’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.\nIf you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"F":0.9,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1904,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124793623,"gmtCreate":1624788943062,"gmtModify":1631889569762,"author":{"id":"3577057278686923","authorId":"3577057278686923","name":"Stockdapper","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f8b006637b4ffc3dd4d813922d34a8e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577057278686923","idStr":"3577057278686923"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Any chance to go higher? $BLCI, $GEVO","listText":"Any chance to go higher? $BLCI, $GEVO","text":"Any chance to go higher? $BLCI, $GEVO","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b208f6e2d47f348865565206cf4ed7d","width":"1080","height":"3158"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124793623","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1085,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125744278,"gmtCreate":1624699736694,"gmtModify":1631884126606,"author":{"id":"3577057278686923","authorId":"3577057278686923","name":"Stockdapper","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f8b006637b4ffc3dd4d813922d34a8e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577057278686923","idStr":"3577057278686923"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"My fav GEVO","listText":"My fav GEVO","text":"My fav GEVO","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fe5fc28c20ca30178b617b0cb8b6127","width":"1080","height":"3158"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/125744278","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1949,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121701016,"gmtCreate":1624491429835,"gmtModify":1631884126613,"author":{"id":"3577057278686923","authorId":"3577057278686923","name":"Stockdapper","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f8b006637b4ffc3dd4d813922d34a8e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577057278686923","idStr":"3577057278686923"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GEVO\">$Gevo(GEVO)$</a>lets go again.","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GEVO\">$Gevo(GEVO)$</a>lets go again.","text":"$Gevo(GEVO)$lets go again.","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c1c260974ece14944ae31d74b42448","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121701016","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1664,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120608586,"gmtCreate":1624320433845,"gmtModify":1631884126629,"author":{"id":"3577057278686923","authorId":"3577057278686923","name":"Stockdapper","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f8b006637b4ffc3dd4d813922d34a8e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577057278686923","idStr":"3577057278686923"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GEVO\">$Gevo(GEVO)$</a>love&nbsp; GEVO","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GEVO\">$Gevo(GEVO)$</a>love&nbsp; GEVO","text":"$Gevo(GEVO)$love GEVO","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6c19fe8047eaf175031d60c6aad8392","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120608586","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1200,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162159514,"gmtCreate":1624047186938,"gmtModify":1631888335778,"author":{"id":"3577057278686923","authorId":"3577057278686923","name":"Stockdapper","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f8b006637b4ffc3dd4d813922d34a8e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577057278686923","idStr":"3577057278686923"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Yeah<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OEG\">$Orbital Energy Group(OEG)$</a>","listText":"Yeah<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OEG\">$Orbital Energy Group(OEG)$</a>","text":"Yeah$Orbital Energy Group(OEG)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162159514","repostId":"1103331073","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2800,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162159185,"gmtCreate":1624047135947,"gmtModify":1631884126642,"author":{"id":"3577057278686923","authorId":"3577057278686923","name":"Stockdapper","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f8b006637b4ffc3dd4d813922d34a8e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577057278686923","idStr":"3577057278686923"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GEVO\">$Gevo(GEVO)$</a>next is GEVO week","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GEVO\">$Gevo(GEVO)$</a>next is GEVO week","text":"$Gevo(GEVO)$next is GEVO week","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98baad54388938d238f21bb8d5d1240a","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162159185","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1857,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162150495,"gmtCreate":1624047008817,"gmtModify":1631889569791,"author":{"id":"3577057278686923","authorId":"3577057278686923","name":"Stockdapper","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f8b006637b4ffc3dd4d813922d34a8e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577057278686923","idStr":"3577057278686923"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hmm. It's it time to cash out?","listText":"Hmm. It's it time to cash out?","text":"Hmm. It's it time to cash out?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162150495","repostId":"2144774740","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2144774740","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"The leading daily newsletter for the latest financial and business news. 33Yrs Helping Stock Investors with Investing Insights, Tools, News & More.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Investors","id":"1085713068","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/608dd68a89ed486e18f64efe3136266c"},"pubTimestamp":1624030096,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2144774740?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 23:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Adobe Getting Lift From Economic Reopening Post-Pandemic<blockquote>Adobe 从疫情后经济重新开放中获得提振</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144774740","media":"Investors","summary":"Software giant Adobe is benefiting as the economy reopens following the Covid-19 pandemic, a senior executive says.","content":"<p>Software giant <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a></b> is benefiting as the economy reopens as the Covid-19 pandemic wanes, a senior executive says. The company's beat-and-raise quarterly report provided proof of that. ADBE stock jumped on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>软件巨头<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">土坯</a></b>一位高级管理人员表示，随着 Covid-19 大流行的减弱，经济重新开放将受益。该公司的击败加薪季度报告提供了证据。ADBE 股价周五上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The maker of digital media and marketing software late Thursday reported fiscal second-quarter earnings that easily topped expectations. Adobe also guided above views for the current quarter.</p><p><blockquote>这家数字媒体和营销软件制造商周四晚间公布的第二财季收益轻松超出预期。Adobe 还指导了本季度的上述观点。</blockquote></p><p> The San Jose, Calif.-based company earned an adjusted $3.03 a share on sales of $3.84 billion in the quarter ended June 4. On a year-over-year basis, Adobe earnings rose 24% while sales climbed 23%.</p><p><blockquote>这家总部位于加利福尼亚州圣何塞的公司调整后每股收益为 3.03 美元，截至 6 月 4 日的季度销售额为 38.4 亿美元。与去年同期相比，Adobe 盈利增长 24%，销售额增长 23%。</blockquote></p><p> For the current quarter, Adobe expects to earn an adjusted $3 a share, up 17%, on sales of $3.88 billion, up 20%.</p><p><blockquote>本季度，Adobe 预计调整后每股收益为 3 美元，增长 17%，销售额为 38.8 亿美元，增长 20%。</blockquote></p><p> <h2>ADBE Stock Rises After Earnings Report</h2> In morning trading on the stock market today, ADBE stock advanced 2.2%, near 563.35. Earlier in the session, ADBE stock notched a record high 570.</p><p><blockquote><h2>收益报告发布后 ADBE 股价上涨</h2>今天股市早盘交易中，ADBE 股价上涨 2.2%，接近 563.35。盘中早些时候，ADBE 股价创下 570 点的历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> \"All three of our businesses — Creative Cloud, Document Cloud and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EXP.AU\">Experience</a> Cloud — just killed it this quarter with excellent performance,\" Chief Financial Officer John Murphy told Investor's Business Daily. \"Content creation and customer experience engagement in personalized ways are resonating across all of our businesses. And it's really driving the momentum and acceleration in the business.\"</p><p><blockquote>“我们的所有三个业务——创意云、文档云和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EXP.AU\">经验</a>云——本季度以出色的表现杀死了它，”首席财务官约翰·墨菲告诉《投资者商业日报》。“以个性化的方式创建内容和客户体验参与正在我们所有的业务中引起共鸣。它确实推动了业务的势头和加速。”</blockquote></p><p> That momentum will continue in the company's seasonally weaker fiscal third quarter, Murphy said. The current quarter includes the summer months of June, July and August.</p><p><blockquote>墨菲表示，这种势头将在公司季节性疲软的第三财季继续下去。本季度包括夏季的六月、七月和八月。</blockquote></p><p> \"The macroeconomic stability is giving a lot of enterprises confidence to invest again,\" Murphy said. \"Companies are prioritizing digital transformation.\"</p><p><blockquote>“宏观经济的稳定给了许多企业再次投资的信心，”墨菲说。“企业正在优先考虑数字化转型。”</blockquote></p><p> The reopening of the economy and return to offices after the pandemic should provide a tailwind for Adobe's business, he said.</p><p><blockquote>他说，疫情后经济的重新开放和办公室的重返应该会为 Adobe 的业务提供推动力。</blockquote></p><p> <h2>Analysts Raise Price Targets On Adobe Stock</h2> At least 15 Wall Street analysts raised their price targets on ADBE stock after the earnings report.</p><p><blockquote><h2>分析师上调 Adobe 股票目标价</h2>财报发布后，至少 15 名华尔街分析师上调了 ADBE 股票的目标价。</blockquote></p><p> Mizuho Securities analyst Gregg Moskowitz reiterated his buy rating on ADBE stock and upped his price target to 640 from 600.</p><p><blockquote>瑞穗证券分析师 Gregg Moskowitz 重申了对 ADBE 股票的买入评级，并将目标价从 600 点上调至 640 点。</blockquote></p><p> \"Adobe's expansive portfolio of software solutions has made it the gold standard in content creation, consumption, and collaboration,\" Moskowitz said in a note to clients. \"Adobe is very well positioned to benefit from digital transformation with its comprehensive end-to-end offering that differentiates it from competitors.\"</p><p><blockquote>莫斯科维茨在给客户的一份报告中表示：“Adobe 广泛的软件解决方案组合使其成为内容创建、消费和协作的黄金标准。”“Adobe 完全有能力从数字化转型中受益，其全面的端到端产品使其与竞争对手区分开来。”</blockquote></p><p> On June 11, ADBE stock broke out of a 40-week&nbsp;consolidation period&nbsp;at a&nbsp;buy point&nbsp;of 536.98, according to&nbsp;IBD MarketSmith charts.</p><p><blockquote>根据 IBD MarketSmith 图表，6 月 11 日，ADBE 股票以 536.98 的买入点突破了 40 周盘整期。</blockquote></p><p> However, IBD Leaderboard analysis offered investors an earlier buy point of 525.54 from a cup base within the larger consolidation pattern.</p><p><blockquote>然而，IBD 排行榜分析为投资者提供了 525.54 的早期买入点，该买入点来自较大的盘整模式中的杯子基数。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Adobe Getting Lift From Economic Reopening Post-Pandemic<blockquote>Adobe 从疫情后经济重新开放中获得提振</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAdobe Getting Lift From Economic Reopening Post-Pandemic<blockquote>Adobe 从疫情后经济重新开放中获得提振</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/608dd68a89ed486e18f64efe3136266c);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Investors </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-18 23:28</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Software giant <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a></b> is benefiting as the economy reopens as the Covid-19 pandemic wanes, a senior executive says. The company's beat-and-raise quarterly report provided proof of that. ADBE stock jumped on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>软件巨头<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">土坯</a></b>一位高级管理人员表示，随着 Covid-19 大流行的减弱，经济重新开放将受益。该公司的击败加薪季度报告提供了证据。ADBE 股价周五上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The maker of digital media and marketing software late Thursday reported fiscal second-quarter earnings that easily topped expectations. Adobe also guided above views for the current quarter.</p><p><blockquote>这家数字媒体和营销软件制造商周四晚间公布的第二财季收益轻松超出预期。Adobe 还指导了本季度的上述观点。</blockquote></p><p> The San Jose, Calif.-based company earned an adjusted $3.03 a share on sales of $3.84 billion in the quarter ended June 4. On a year-over-year basis, Adobe earnings rose 24% while sales climbed 23%.</p><p><blockquote>这家总部位于加利福尼亚州圣何塞的公司调整后每股收益为 3.03 美元，截至 6 月 4 日的季度销售额为 38.4 亿美元。与去年同期相比，Adobe 盈利增长 24%，销售额增长 23%。</blockquote></p><p> For the current quarter, Adobe expects to earn an adjusted $3 a share, up 17%, on sales of $3.88 billion, up 20%.</p><p><blockquote>本季度，Adobe 预计调整后每股收益为 3 美元，增长 17%，销售额为 38.8 亿美元，增长 20%。</blockquote></p><p> <h2>ADBE Stock Rises After Earnings Report</h2> In morning trading on the stock market today, ADBE stock advanced 2.2%, near 563.35. Earlier in the session, ADBE stock notched a record high 570.</p><p><blockquote><h2>收益报告发布后 ADBE 股价上涨</h2>今天股市早盘交易中，ADBE 股价上涨 2.2%，接近 563.35。盘中早些时候，ADBE 股价创下 570 点的历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> \"All three of our businesses — Creative Cloud, Document Cloud and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EXP.AU\">Experience</a> Cloud — just killed it this quarter with excellent performance,\" Chief Financial Officer John Murphy told Investor's Business Daily. \"Content creation and customer experience engagement in personalized ways are resonating across all of our businesses. And it's really driving the momentum and acceleration in the business.\"</p><p><blockquote>“我们的所有三个业务——创意云、文档云和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EXP.AU\">经验</a>云——本季度以出色的表现杀死了它，”首席财务官约翰·墨菲告诉《投资者商业日报》。“以个性化的方式创建内容和客户体验参与正在我们所有的业务中引起共鸣。它确实推动了业务的势头和加速。”</blockquote></p><p> That momentum will continue in the company's seasonally weaker fiscal third quarter, Murphy said. The current quarter includes the summer months of June, July and August.</p><p><blockquote>墨菲表示，这种势头将在公司季节性疲软的第三财季继续下去。本季度包括夏季的六月、七月和八月。</blockquote></p><p> \"The macroeconomic stability is giving a lot of enterprises confidence to invest again,\" Murphy said. \"Companies are prioritizing digital transformation.\"</p><p><blockquote>“宏观经济的稳定给了许多企业再次投资的信心，”墨菲说。“企业正在优先考虑数字化转型。”</blockquote></p><p> The reopening of the economy and return to offices after the pandemic should provide a tailwind for Adobe's business, he said.</p><p><blockquote>他说，疫情后经济的重新开放和办公室的重返应该会为 Adobe 的业务提供推动力。</blockquote></p><p> <h2>Analysts Raise Price Targets On Adobe Stock</h2> At least 15 Wall Street analysts raised their price targets on ADBE stock after the earnings report.</p><p><blockquote><h2>分析师上调 Adobe 股票目标价</h2>财报发布后，至少 15 名华尔街分析师上调了 ADBE 股票的目标价。</blockquote></p><p> Mizuho Securities analyst Gregg Moskowitz reiterated his buy rating on ADBE stock and upped his price target to 640 from 600.</p><p><blockquote>瑞穗证券分析师 Gregg Moskowitz 重申了对 ADBE 股票的买入评级，并将目标价从 600 点上调至 640 点。</blockquote></p><p> \"Adobe's expansive portfolio of software solutions has made it the gold standard in content creation, consumption, and collaboration,\" Moskowitz said in a note to clients. \"Adobe is very well positioned to benefit from digital transformation with its comprehensive end-to-end offering that differentiates it from competitors.\"</p><p><blockquote>莫斯科维茨在给客户的一份报告中表示：“Adobe 广泛的软件解决方案组合使其成为内容创建、消费和协作的黄金标准。”“Adobe 完全有能力从数字化转型中受益，其全面的端到端产品使其与竞争对手区分开来。”</blockquote></p><p> On June 11, ADBE stock broke out of a 40-week&nbsp;consolidation period&nbsp;at a&nbsp;buy point&nbsp;of 536.98, according to&nbsp;IBD MarketSmith charts.</p><p><blockquote>根据 IBD MarketSmith 图表，6 月 11 日，ADBE 股票以 536.98 的买入点突破了 40 周盘整期。</blockquote></p><p> However, IBD Leaderboard analysis offered investors an earlier buy point of 525.54 from a cup base within the larger consolidation pattern.</p><p><blockquote>然而，IBD 排行榜分析为投资者提供了 525.54 的早期买入点，该买入点来自较大的盘整模式中的杯子基数。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ADBE":"Adobe"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2144774740","content_text":"Software giant Adobe is benefiting as the economy reopens as the Covid-19 pandemic wanes, a senior executive says. The company's beat-and-raise quarterly report provided proof of that. ADBE stock jumped on Friday.\nThe maker of digital media and marketing software late Thursday reported fiscal second-quarter earnings that easily topped expectations. Adobe also guided above views for the current quarter.\nThe San Jose, Calif.-based company earned an adjusted $3.03 a share on sales of $3.84 billion in the quarter ended June 4. On a year-over-year basis, Adobe earnings rose 24% while sales climbed 23%.\nFor the current quarter, Adobe expects to earn an adjusted $3 a share, up 17%, on sales of $3.88 billion, up 20%.\nADBE Stock Rises After Earnings Report\nIn morning trading on the stock market today, ADBE stock advanced 2.2%, near 563.35. Earlier in the session, ADBE stock notched a record high 570.\n\"All three of our businesses — Creative Cloud, Document Cloud and Experience Cloud — just killed it this quarter with excellent performance,\" Chief Financial Officer John Murphy told Investor's Business Daily. \"Content creation and customer experience engagement in personalized ways are resonating across all of our businesses. And it's really driving the momentum and acceleration in the business.\"\nThat momentum will continue in the company's seasonally weaker fiscal third quarter, Murphy said. The current quarter includes the summer months of June, July and August.\n\"The macroeconomic stability is giving a lot of enterprises confidence to invest again,\" Murphy said. \"Companies are prioritizing digital transformation.\"\nThe reopening of the economy and return to offices after the pandemic should provide a tailwind for Adobe's business, he said.\nAnalysts Raise Price Targets On Adobe Stock\nAt least 15 Wall Street analysts raised their price targets on ADBE stock after the earnings report.\nMizuho Securities analyst Gregg Moskowitz reiterated his buy rating on ADBE stock and upped his price target to 640 from 600.\n\"Adobe's expansive portfolio of software solutions has made it the gold standard in content creation, consumption, and collaboration,\" Moskowitz said in a note to clients. \"Adobe is very well positioned to benefit from digital transformation with its comprehensive end-to-end offering that differentiates it from competitors.\"\nOn June 11, ADBE stock broke out of a 40-week consolidation period at a buy point of 536.98, according to IBD MarketSmith charts.\nHowever, IBD Leaderboard analysis offered investors an earlier buy point of 525.54 from a cup base within the larger consolidation pattern.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ADBE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1351,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162150509,"gmtCreate":1624046971401,"gmtModify":1631889569766,"author":{"id":"3577057278686923","authorId":"3577057278686923","name":"Stockdapper","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f8b006637b4ffc3dd4d813922d34a8e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577057278686923","idStr":"3577057278686923"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Let's go WISH.","listText":"Let's go WISH.","text":"Let's go WISH.","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f835f5f2d918f31a98b04ce8109c6da","width":"1080","height":"2766"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162150509","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":341,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162150154,"gmtCreate":1624046920178,"gmtModify":1631889569798,"author":{"id":"3577057278686923","authorId":"3577057278686923","name":"Stockdapper","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f8b006637b4ffc3dd4d813922d34a8e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577057278686923","idStr":"3577057278686923"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Sure cool down abit and up next week.","listText":"Sure cool down abit and up next week.","text":"Sure cool down abit and up next week.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162150154","repostId":"1175119628","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":514,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168047165,"gmtCreate":1623945670158,"gmtModify":1631889569799,"author":{"id":"3577057278686923","authorId":"3577057278686923","name":"Stockdapper","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f8b006637b4ffc3dd4d813922d34a8e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577057278686923","idStr":"3577057278686923"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great stock","listText":"Great stock","text":"Great stock","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43a027474bf0cce4261e9d1485aae13d","width":"1080","height":"2679"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168047165","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":319,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":163233905,"gmtCreate":1623885700707,"gmtModify":1631884126655,"author":{"id":"3577057278686923","authorId":"3577057278686923","name":"Stockdapper","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f8b006637b4ffc3dd4d813922d34a8e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577057278686923","idStr":"3577057278686923"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Let's go Gevo","listText":"Let's go Gevo","text":"Let's go Gevo","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75b7a71df1d4ec1238da96d7080b07f7","width":"1080","height":"2766"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/163233905","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":458,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169240460,"gmtCreate":1623839913750,"gmtModify":1631889569799,"author":{"id":"3577057278686923","authorId":"3577057278686923","name":"Stockdapper","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f8b006637b4ffc3dd4d813922d34a8e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577057278686923","idStr":"3577057278686923"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"??? No want wants Dividend?","listText":"??? No want wants Dividend?","text":"??? No want wants Dividend?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43c2b4e7c349d595b1512078d359402e","width":"1080","height":"2679"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169240460","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":297,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":180025888,"gmtCreate":1623165346544,"gmtModify":1631889569804,"author":{"id":"3577057278686923","authorId":"3577057278686923","name":"Stockdapper","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f8b006637b4ffc3dd4d813922d34a8e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577057278686923","idStr":"3577057278686923"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Dangerous","listText":"Dangerous","text":"Dangerous","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/180025888","repostId":"1108456666","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1108456666","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623161829,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1108456666?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-08 22:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Warning Signs A Correction Is Ahead<blockquote>调整即将到来的警告信号</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108456666","media":"zerohedge","summary":"After a decent rally from the recent lows, there are multiple warning signs a correction approaches.","content":"<p>After a decent rally from the recent lows, there are multiple warning signs a correction approaches.</p><p><blockquote>在从近期低点大幅反弹后，有多个警告信号表明调整即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> Over the last few weeks, we&nbsp;<b><i>discussed the rising risk</i></b>&nbsp;of a correction between 5-10%, most likely this summer. Such drawdowns are historically very common within any given year of an ongoing bull market. As&nbsp;<i>Sentiment Trader</i>&nbsp;recently noted, we are now in one of the more extended periods without such an occurrence.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的几周里，我们<b><i>讨论了上升的风险</i></b>调整幅度在 5-10% 之间，很可能是在今年夏天。从历史上看，在持续牛市的任何一年，这种回撤都非常常见。作为<i>情绪交易者</i>最近注意到，我们现在正处于一个较长的时期，没有这种情况发生。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eced82eef65e87252e40ed177a747be9\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Of course, as is always the case, amid a bullish advance, it is easy to become complacent as prices rise.</p><p><blockquote>当然，一如既往，在看涨的情况下，随着价格上涨，人们很容易变得自满。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Before we go any further, it is essential to clarify we are discussing only the potential for a short-term correction.</b>&nbsp;As is often the case, some tend to extrapolate such to mean I am saying a&nbsp;<i>“crash”</i>&nbsp;is coming, and you should be all in cash. Such an extreme move is ill-advised without a significant weight of evidence.</p><p><blockquote><b>在我们进一步讨论之前，有必要澄清我们只讨论短期调整的可能性。</b>正如经常发生的情况一样，有些人倾向于推断这意味着我在说一个<i>“崩溃”</i>要来了，你应该都是现金。在没有大量证据的情况下，这种极端举动是不明智的。</blockquote></p><p> However, there is reason to be cautious in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>然而，短期内有理由保持谨慎。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Suppressed Volatility</b></p><p><blockquote><b>波动性抑制</b></blockquote></p><p> As I stated, during a&nbsp;<i>“bullish advance,”</i>investors become incredibly complacent.&nbsp;<b>That</b><b><i>“complacency”</i></b><b>&nbsp;leads to excessive speculative risk-taking.We see clear evidence of that activity in various</b><b><i>“risk-on”</i></b><b>&nbsp;asset classes from Cryptocurrencies, to SPAC’s, to</b><b><i>“Meme Stocks.”</i></b></p><p><blockquote>正如我所说，在一个<i>“看涨上涨”</i>投资者变得无比自满。<b>那个</b><b><i>“自满”</i></b><b>导致过度投机冒险。我们在各种情况下看到这种活动明显证据</b><b><i>“冒险”</i></b><b>资产类别从加密货币到特殊目的收购公司，再到</b><b><i>“模因股票。”</i></b></blockquote></p><p> A measure of speculative excess is the Volatility Index (VIX). The chart below is from my colleague Jim Colquitt of&nbsp;<i>Armor ETF’s.</i></p><p><blockquote>投机过度的衡量标准是波动性指数（VIX）。下图来自我的同事吉姆·科尔奎特<i>装甲ETF。</i></blockquote></p><p> The top pane is the&nbsp;15-day moving average of VIX, which is on an inverted scale. The bottom pane is the S&amp;P 500 index.</p><p><blockquote>顶部窗格是 VIX 的 15 天移动平均线，该平均线呈倒排比例。底部窗格是标普500指数。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/245e68edb15dbfa4f8f146a789b89809\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"712\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>   <i>“The market may have one last push higher over the next several weeks. Such will take the VIX even lower and complete the VIX wedge pattern.</i>  <i><b>That pattern has been evident in the last three 10% or greater corrections.</b></i>  <i>&nbsp;By this measure, the correction should begin somewhere around July 21st&nbsp;– August 10th.” – Jim Colquitt</i>  As they say,&nbsp;<i>“timing is everything.”</i>While a July-August time frame is entirely possible, a June-July correction is just as likely. What is essential, as we will discuss momentarily, is understanding that risk is prevalent.</p><p><blockquote><i>“未来几周，市场可能会出现最后一次上涨。这将使 VIX 指数进一步走低，并完成 VIX 楔形形态。</i><i><b>这种模式在过去三次10%或更多的调整中已经很明显了。</b></i><i>按照这个标准，调整应该在7月21日至8月10日左右开始。”吉姆·科尔奎特</i>正如他们所说，<i>“时机就是一切。”</i>虽然 7 月至 8 月的时间框架完全有可能，但 6 月至 7 月的调整也同样有可能。正如我们稍后将要讨论的，重要的是要理解风险是普遍存在的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market Exuberance Stretched Again</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场繁荣再次延长</b></blockquote></p><p> It isn’t just complacency that is suggestive of a short-term market correction. There are numerous others as well.</p><p><blockquote>预示着短期市场调整的不仅仅是自满情绪。还有许多其他的。</blockquote></p><p> As my friend Daniel Lacalle recently posted,&nbsp;Morgan Stanley‘s market timing indicator is at levels that have typically coincided with market downturns. Just for reference, the current reading is the most&nbsp;<i>“bearish”</i>&nbsp;on record.</p><p><blockquote>正如我的朋友丹尼尔·拉卡勒（Daniel Lacalle）最近发布的那样，摩根士丹利的市场时机指标处于通常与市场低迷同时出现的水平。仅供参考，目前的读数是最<i>“看跌”</i>有记录。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c918064930caffdab80b05f255085f9\" tg-width=\"1085\" tg-height=\"459\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, a host of other indicators posted by&nbsp;<b><i>@Not_Jim_Cramer</i></b>also suggests there are reasons for concern about a correction.</p><p><blockquote>此外，公布的许多其他指标<b><i>@不是吉姆·克莱默</i></b>也表明有理由担心修正。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12bad2caf91007cd9b37c0ef04e90e29\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"547\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Inflationary Warning</b></p><p><blockquote><b>通货膨胀警告</b></blockquote></p><p> Lastly, this note from Tom Bowley caught my eye on Saturday.</p><p><blockquote>最后，汤姆·鲍利的这张纸条在周六引起了我的注意。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“The S&amp;P 500 reached a high on Friday of 4233.45, narrowly eclipsing the all-time high close of 4232.60 from May 7th.</i>  <i><b>Unfortunately for the bulls, selling in the final few minutes ruined the breakout attempt. This false breakout, ever so slight, could be quite ominous for next week and there’s one MAJOR reason why. Inflation data.</b></i>  <i>That May 7th all-time high came just days before the shocking April CPI data was released on May 12th. Now here we are back at the high again.</i>  <i><b>As the late Yogi Berra might say, “it’s deja vu all over again!” I don’t believe inflation to be a problem, but just the possibility of it could trigger scary headlines and encourage selling in the week ahead.”</b></i>  <i>&nbsp;–&nbsp;Tom Bowley, Stockcharts</i>  The chart below shows the differential between the annual rates of change of the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI.)&nbsp;<b>It should not be surprising that when PPI surges well ahead of CPI, equity markets tend to run into problems.Such is because this shows producers are unable to pass the inflation along to their customers.</b>&nbsp;Consequently, this leads to reduced earnings and a repricing of risk assets.</p><p><blockquote><i>“标普500周五触及4233.45的高点，以微弱优势超过了5月7日4232.60的历史收盘高点。</i><i><b>对多头来说不幸的是，最后几分钟的抛售破坏了突破的尝试。这种虚假的突破虽然非常轻微，但对下周来说可能是相当不祥的，其中有一个主要原因。通货膨胀数据。</b></i><i>5 月 7 日的历史新高就在 5 月 12 日令人震惊的 4 月份 CPI 数据公布的前几天。现在我们又回到了高潮。</i><i><b>正如已故的瑜伽士贝拉所说：“又是似曾相识!”我不认为通货膨胀是个问题，但通货膨胀的可能性就可能引发可怕的头条新闻，并鼓励未来一周的抛售。”</b></i><i>– 汤姆·鲍利，股票图表</i>下图显示了生产者价格指数（PPI）和消费者价格指数（CPI）的年变化率之间的差异。<b>当PPI远远领先于CPI时，股市往往会遇到问题，这并不奇怪。这是因为这表明制片人无法将通货膨胀转嫁给他们的客户。</b>因此，这导致收益减少和风险资产重新定价。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bf24f2c1d3200f6fdb7a14a83d419b5\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"519\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Tom goes on to state inflation will not be a problem longer-term correctly. However, in the near term, the surge in inflation will weigh on outlooks, creating corrective actions.</p><p><blockquote>汤姆继续正确地指出，从长远来看，通货膨胀不会是一个问题。然而，在短期内，通胀飙升将给前景带来压力，从而引发纠正措施。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Problem With Technicals</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术人员的问题</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> I want to reiterate a point from the most recent&nbsp;<b><i>newsletter:</i></b></p><p><blockquote>我想重申最近的一点<b><i>通讯：</i></b></blockquote></p><p>   <i><b>The biggest problem is that technical indicators do not distinguish between a consolidation, a correction, or an outright bear market.</b></i>  <i>&nbsp;As such, if you ignore the signals as they occur, by the time you realize it’s a deep correction, it is too late to do much about it.</i>  <i><b>Therefore, we must treat each signal with the same respect and adjust risk accordingly. The opportunity costs of doing so are minimal.</b></i>  If we reduce risk and the market continues to rise, we can increase risk exposures. Yes, we sacrifice some short-term performance. However, if we reduce risk and the market declines sharply, we not only protect capital during the decline but have the liquidity to deploy at lower price levels.</p><p><blockquote><i><b>最大的问题是技术指标无法区分盘整、回调或彻底的熊市。</b></i><i>因此，如果你忽略了这些信号，当你意识到这是一次深度修正时，就为时已晚了。</i><i><b>因此，我们必须以同样的尊重对待每个信号，并相应地调整风险。这样做的机会成本很小。</b></i>如果我们降低风险，而市场继续上涨，我们可以增加风险敞口。是的，我们牺牲了一些短期业绩。然而，如果我们降低风险，市场大幅下跌，我们不仅可以在下跌期间保护资本，还可以在较低的价格水平部署流动性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Such is the problem with</b><b><i>“buy and hold”</i></b><b>&nbsp;strategies.</b>&nbsp;Yes, you will perform in line with the market, but given that you didn’t&nbsp;<i>“sell high,”</i>&nbsp;there is no cash available with which to&nbsp;<i>“buy low”</i>&nbsp;in the future.</p><p><blockquote><b>这就是问题</b><b><i>“买入并持有”</i></b><b>策略。</b>是的，你的表现会与市场保持一致，但鉴于你没有<i>“高抛，”</i>没有可用的现金<i>“低价买入”</i>在未来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>With that stated, here is the most significant problem of technical analysis.</b>All of the warnings noted above suggest there is a risk of a correction in the near term.&nbsp;<b>However, technical analysis does not differentiate between a 5% pullback, a 10% correction, or a</b><b><i>“bear market.”</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b>综上所述，这就是技术分析最重要的问题。</b>上述所有警告都表明短期内存在调整的风险。<b>然而，技术分析并不区分 5% 的回调、10% 的修正或</b><b><i>“熊市。”</i></b></blockquote></p><p> <b>You will only find that out once it begins, and such is why risk management is essential.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一旦开始，你才会发现这一点，这就是为什么风险管理是必不可少的。</b></blockquote></p><p>   <i>“Risk management is much like driving a car. If there is a blind spot ahead, and you don’t tap on the brakes to control your speed, you are unlikely to avoid the hazard ahead.</i>  <b><i>Yes, tapping on the brakes to provide more control over the car will slow your arrival time to your destination. However, being late is a much better option than not getting there at all.”</i></b>  <b>Just A Warning</b></p><p><blockquote><i>“风险管理就像驾驶汽车。如果前方有一个盲点，而你不踩刹车来控制速度，你就不可能避免前方的危险。</i><b><i>是的，踩刹车来更好地控制汽车会减慢你到达目的地的时间。不过，迟到总比没到要好得多。”</i></b><b>只是一个警告</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Again, I am not implying, suggesting, or stating that such signals mean going 100% to cash.</b>&nbsp;What I am suggesting is that when&nbsp;<i>“sell signals”</i>&nbsp;are given, that is the time when individuals should perform some essential portfolio risk management such as:</p><p><blockquote><b>再次强调，我并不是暗示、暗示或声明此类信号意味着 100% 兑现。</b>我的意思是当<i>卖出信号</i>给定，这是个人应该执行一些基本的投资组合风险管理的时间，例如：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Trim back winning positions to original portfolio weights:</i><i><b>Investment Rule: Let Winners Run</b></i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>将获胜头寸削减至原始投资组合权重：</i><i><b>投资规则：让赢家跑</b></i></li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><i>Sell positions that simply are not working (if the position was not working in a rising market, it likely won’t in a declining market.)</i><i><b>Investment Rule: Cut Losers Short</b></i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>卖出根本不起作用的头寸（如果头寸在上涨市场不起作用，那么在下跌市场很可能也不起作用）。</i><i><b>投资规则：做空输家</b></i></li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><i>Hold the cash raised from these activities until the next buying opportunity occurs.</i><i><b>Investment Rule: Buy Low</b></i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>持有从这些活动中筹集的现金，直到下一个购买机会出现。</i><i><b>投资规则：低买入</b></i></li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> As stated, there is minimal risk in&nbsp;<i>“risk management.”</i>&nbsp;In the long term, the results of avoiding periods of severe capital loss will outweigh missed short-term gains.</p><p><blockquote>如前所述，风险极小<i>风险管理。</i>从长远来看，避免严重资本损失的结果将超过错失的短期收益。</blockquote></p><p> <b>While I agree you can not</b><b><i>“time the markets,”you can “manage risk” to improve your long-term outcomes.</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b>虽然我同意你不能</b><b><i>“把握市场时机”，您就可以 “管理风险 ”以改善长期业绩。</i></b></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Warning Signs A Correction Is Ahead<blockquote>调整即将到来的警告信号</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWarning Signs A Correction Is Ahead<blockquote>调整即将到来的警告信号</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-08 22:17</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>After a decent rally from the recent lows, there are multiple warning signs a correction approaches.</p><p><blockquote>在从近期低点大幅反弹后，有多个警告信号表明调整即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> Over the last few weeks, we&nbsp;<b><i>discussed the rising risk</i></b>&nbsp;of a correction between 5-10%, most likely this summer. Such drawdowns are historically very common within any given year of an ongoing bull market. As&nbsp;<i>Sentiment Trader</i>&nbsp;recently noted, we are now in one of the more extended periods without such an occurrence.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的几周里，我们<b><i>讨论了上升的风险</i></b>调整幅度在 5-10% 之间，很可能是在今年夏天。从历史上看，在持续牛市的任何一年，这种回撤都非常常见。作为<i>情绪交易者</i>最近注意到，我们现在正处于一个较长的时期，没有这种情况发生。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eced82eef65e87252e40ed177a747be9\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Of course, as is always the case, amid a bullish advance, it is easy to become complacent as prices rise.</p><p><blockquote>当然，一如既往，在看涨的情况下，随着价格上涨，人们很容易变得自满。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Before we go any further, it is essential to clarify we are discussing only the potential for a short-term correction.</b>&nbsp;As is often the case, some tend to extrapolate such to mean I am saying a&nbsp;<i>“crash”</i>&nbsp;is coming, and you should be all in cash. Such an extreme move is ill-advised without a significant weight of evidence.</p><p><blockquote><b>在我们进一步讨论之前，有必要澄清我们只讨论短期调整的可能性。</b>正如经常发生的情况一样，有些人倾向于推断这意味着我在说一个<i>“崩溃”</i>要来了，你应该都是现金。在没有大量证据的情况下，这种极端举动是不明智的。</blockquote></p><p> However, there is reason to be cautious in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>然而，短期内有理由保持谨慎。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Suppressed Volatility</b></p><p><blockquote><b>波动性抑制</b></blockquote></p><p> As I stated, during a&nbsp;<i>“bullish advance,”</i>investors become incredibly complacent.&nbsp;<b>That</b><b><i>“complacency”</i></b><b>&nbsp;leads to excessive speculative risk-taking.We see clear evidence of that activity in various</b><b><i>“risk-on”</i></b><b>&nbsp;asset classes from Cryptocurrencies, to SPAC’s, to</b><b><i>“Meme Stocks.”</i></b></p><p><blockquote>正如我所说，在一个<i>“看涨上涨”</i>投资者变得无比自满。<b>那个</b><b><i>“自满”</i></b><b>导致过度投机冒险。我们在各种情况下看到这种活动明显证据</b><b><i>“冒险”</i></b><b>资产类别从加密货币到特殊目的收购公司，再到</b><b><i>“模因股票。”</i></b></blockquote></p><p> A measure of speculative excess is the Volatility Index (VIX). The chart below is from my colleague Jim Colquitt of&nbsp;<i>Armor ETF’s.</i></p><p><blockquote>投机过度的衡量标准是波动性指数（VIX）。下图来自我的同事吉姆·科尔奎特<i>装甲ETF。</i></blockquote></p><p> The top pane is the&nbsp;15-day moving average of VIX, which is on an inverted scale. The bottom pane is the S&amp;P 500 index.</p><p><blockquote>顶部窗格是 VIX 的 15 天移动平均线，该平均线呈倒排比例。底部窗格是标普500指数。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/245e68edb15dbfa4f8f146a789b89809\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"712\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>   <i>“The market may have one last push higher over the next several weeks. Such will take the VIX even lower and complete the VIX wedge pattern.</i>  <i><b>That pattern has been evident in the last three 10% or greater corrections.</b></i>  <i>&nbsp;By this measure, the correction should begin somewhere around July 21st&nbsp;– August 10th.” – Jim Colquitt</i>  As they say,&nbsp;<i>“timing is everything.”</i>While a July-August time frame is entirely possible, a June-July correction is just as likely. What is essential, as we will discuss momentarily, is understanding that risk is prevalent.</p><p><blockquote><i>“未来几周，市场可能会出现最后一次上涨。这将使 VIX 指数进一步走低，并完成 VIX 楔形形态。</i><i><b>这种模式在过去三次10%或更多的调整中已经很明显了。</b></i><i>按照这个标准，调整应该在7月21日至8月10日左右开始。”吉姆·科尔奎特</i>正如他们所说，<i>“时机就是一切。”</i>虽然 7 月至 8 月的时间框架完全有可能，但 6 月至 7 月的调整也同样有可能。正如我们稍后将要讨论的，重要的是要理解风险是普遍存在的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market Exuberance Stretched Again</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场繁荣再次延长</b></blockquote></p><p> It isn’t just complacency that is suggestive of a short-term market correction. There are numerous others as well.</p><p><blockquote>预示着短期市场调整的不仅仅是自满情绪。还有许多其他的。</blockquote></p><p> As my friend Daniel Lacalle recently posted,&nbsp;Morgan Stanley‘s market timing indicator is at levels that have typically coincided with market downturns. Just for reference, the current reading is the most&nbsp;<i>“bearish”</i>&nbsp;on record.</p><p><blockquote>正如我的朋友丹尼尔·拉卡勒（Daniel Lacalle）最近发布的那样，摩根士丹利的市场时机指标处于通常与市场低迷同时出现的水平。仅供参考，目前的读数是最<i>“看跌”</i>有记录。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c918064930caffdab80b05f255085f9\" tg-width=\"1085\" tg-height=\"459\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, a host of other indicators posted by&nbsp;<b><i>@Not_Jim_Cramer</i></b>also suggests there are reasons for concern about a correction.</p><p><blockquote>此外，公布的许多其他指标<b><i>@不是吉姆·克莱默</i></b>也表明有理由担心修正。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12bad2caf91007cd9b37c0ef04e90e29\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"547\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Inflationary Warning</b></p><p><blockquote><b>通货膨胀警告</b></blockquote></p><p> Lastly, this note from Tom Bowley caught my eye on Saturday.</p><p><blockquote>最后，汤姆·鲍利的这张纸条在周六引起了我的注意。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“The S&amp;P 500 reached a high on Friday of 4233.45, narrowly eclipsing the all-time high close of 4232.60 from May 7th.</i>  <i><b>Unfortunately for the bulls, selling in the final few minutes ruined the breakout attempt. This false breakout, ever so slight, could be quite ominous for next week and there’s one MAJOR reason why. Inflation data.</b></i>  <i>That May 7th all-time high came just days before the shocking April CPI data was released on May 12th. Now here we are back at the high again.</i>  <i><b>As the late Yogi Berra might say, “it’s deja vu all over again!” I don’t believe inflation to be a problem, but just the possibility of it could trigger scary headlines and encourage selling in the week ahead.”</b></i>  <i>&nbsp;–&nbsp;Tom Bowley, Stockcharts</i>  The chart below shows the differential between the annual rates of change of the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI.)&nbsp;<b>It should not be surprising that when PPI surges well ahead of CPI, equity markets tend to run into problems.Such is because this shows producers are unable to pass the inflation along to their customers.</b>&nbsp;Consequently, this leads to reduced earnings and a repricing of risk assets.</p><p><blockquote><i>“标普500周五触及4233.45的高点，以微弱优势超过了5月7日4232.60的历史收盘高点。</i><i><b>对多头来说不幸的是，最后几分钟的抛售破坏了突破的尝试。这种虚假的突破虽然非常轻微，但对下周来说可能是相当不祥的，其中有一个主要原因。通货膨胀数据。</b></i><i>5 月 7 日的历史新高就在 5 月 12 日令人震惊的 4 月份 CPI 数据公布的前几天。现在我们又回到了高潮。</i><i><b>正如已故的瑜伽士贝拉所说：“又是似曾相识!”我不认为通货膨胀是个问题，但通货膨胀的可能性就可能引发可怕的头条新闻，并鼓励未来一周的抛售。”</b></i><i>– 汤姆·鲍利，股票图表</i>下图显示了生产者价格指数（PPI）和消费者价格指数（CPI）的年变化率之间的差异。<b>当PPI远远领先于CPI时，股市往往会遇到问题，这并不奇怪。这是因为这表明制片人无法将通货膨胀转嫁给他们的客户。</b>因此，这导致收益减少和风险资产重新定价。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bf24f2c1d3200f6fdb7a14a83d419b5\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"519\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Tom goes on to state inflation will not be a problem longer-term correctly. However, in the near term, the surge in inflation will weigh on outlooks, creating corrective actions.</p><p><blockquote>汤姆继续正确地指出，从长远来看，通货膨胀不会是一个问题。然而，在短期内，通胀飙升将给前景带来压力，从而引发纠正措施。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Problem With Technicals</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术人员的问题</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> I want to reiterate a point from the most recent&nbsp;<b><i>newsletter:</i></b></p><p><blockquote>我想重申最近的一点<b><i>通讯：</i></b></blockquote></p><p>   <i><b>The biggest problem is that technical indicators do not distinguish between a consolidation, a correction, or an outright bear market.</b></i>  <i>&nbsp;As such, if you ignore the signals as they occur, by the time you realize it’s a deep correction, it is too late to do much about it.</i>  <i><b>Therefore, we must treat each signal with the same respect and adjust risk accordingly. The opportunity costs of doing so are minimal.</b></i>  If we reduce risk and the market continues to rise, we can increase risk exposures. Yes, we sacrifice some short-term performance. However, if we reduce risk and the market declines sharply, we not only protect capital during the decline but have the liquidity to deploy at lower price levels.</p><p><blockquote><i><b>最大的问题是技术指标无法区分盘整、回调或彻底的熊市。</b></i><i>因此，如果你忽略了这些信号，当你意识到这是一次深度修正时，就为时已晚了。</i><i><b>因此，我们必须以同样的尊重对待每个信号，并相应地调整风险。这样做的机会成本很小。</b></i>如果我们降低风险，而市场继续上涨，我们可以增加风险敞口。是的，我们牺牲了一些短期业绩。然而，如果我们降低风险，市场大幅下跌，我们不仅可以在下跌期间保护资本，还可以在较低的价格水平部署流动性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Such is the problem with</b><b><i>“buy and hold”</i></b><b>&nbsp;strategies.</b>&nbsp;Yes, you will perform in line with the market, but given that you didn’t&nbsp;<i>“sell high,”</i>&nbsp;there is no cash available with which to&nbsp;<i>“buy low”</i>&nbsp;in the future.</p><p><blockquote><b>这就是问题</b><b><i>“买入并持有”</i></b><b>策略。</b>是的，你的表现会与市场保持一致，但鉴于你没有<i>“高抛，”</i>没有可用的现金<i>“低价买入”</i>在未来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>With that stated, here is the most significant problem of technical analysis.</b>All of the warnings noted above suggest there is a risk of a correction in the near term.&nbsp;<b>However, technical analysis does not differentiate between a 5% pullback, a 10% correction, or a</b><b><i>“bear market.”</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b>综上所述，这就是技术分析最重要的问题。</b>上述所有警告都表明短期内存在调整的风险。<b>然而，技术分析并不区分 5% 的回调、10% 的修正或</b><b><i>“熊市。”</i></b></blockquote></p><p> <b>You will only find that out once it begins, and such is why risk management is essential.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一旦开始，你才会发现这一点，这就是为什么风险管理是必不可少的。</b></blockquote></p><p>   <i>“Risk management is much like driving a car. If there is a blind spot ahead, and you don’t tap on the brakes to control your speed, you are unlikely to avoid the hazard ahead.</i>  <b><i>Yes, tapping on the brakes to provide more control over the car will slow your arrival time to your destination. However, being late is a much better option than not getting there at all.”</i></b>  <b>Just A Warning</b></p><p><blockquote><i>“风险管理就像驾驶汽车。如果前方有一个盲点，而你不踩刹车来控制速度，你就不可能避免前方的危险。</i><b><i>是的，踩刹车来更好地控制汽车会减慢你到达目的地的时间。不过，迟到总比没到要好得多。”</i></b><b>只是一个警告</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Again, I am not implying, suggesting, or stating that such signals mean going 100% to cash.</b>&nbsp;What I am suggesting is that when&nbsp;<i>“sell signals”</i>&nbsp;are given, that is the time when individuals should perform some essential portfolio risk management such as:</p><p><blockquote><b>再次强调，我并不是暗示、暗示或声明此类信号意味着 100% 兑现。</b>我的意思是当<i>卖出信号</i>给定，这是个人应该执行一些基本的投资组合风险管理的时间，例如：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Trim back winning positions to original portfolio weights:</i><i><b>Investment Rule: Let Winners Run</b></i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>将获胜头寸削减至原始投资组合权重：</i><i><b>投资规则：让赢家跑</b></i></li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><i>Sell positions that simply are not working (if the position was not working in a rising market, it likely won’t in a declining market.)</i><i><b>Investment Rule: Cut Losers Short</b></i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>卖出根本不起作用的头寸（如果头寸在上涨市场不起作用，那么在下跌市场很可能也不起作用）。</i><i><b>投资规则：做空输家</b></i></li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><i>Hold the cash raised from these activities until the next buying opportunity occurs.</i><i><b>Investment Rule: Buy Low</b></i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>持有从这些活动中筹集的现金，直到下一个购买机会出现。</i><i><b>投资规则：低买入</b></i></li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> As stated, there is minimal risk in&nbsp;<i>“risk management.”</i>&nbsp;In the long term, the results of avoiding periods of severe capital loss will outweigh missed short-term gains.</p><p><blockquote>如前所述，风险极小<i>风险管理。</i>从长远来看，避免严重资本损失的结果将超过错失的短期收益。</blockquote></p><p> <b>While I agree you can not</b><b><i>“time the markets,”you can “manage risk” to improve your long-term outcomes.</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b>虽然我同意你不能</b><b><i>“把握市场时机”，您就可以 “管理风险 ”以改善长期业绩。</i></b></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/warning-signs-correction-ahead?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/warning-signs-correction-ahead?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108456666","content_text":"After a decent rally from the recent lows, there are multiple warning signs a correction approaches.\nOver the last few weeks, we discussed the rising risk of a correction between 5-10%, most likely this summer. Such drawdowns are historically very common within any given year of an ongoing bull market. As Sentiment Trader recently noted, we are now in one of the more extended periods without such an occurrence.\nOf course, as is always the case, amid a bullish advance, it is easy to become complacent as prices rise.\nBefore we go any further, it is essential to clarify we are discussing only the potential for a short-term correction. As is often the case, some tend to extrapolate such to mean I am saying a “crash” is coming, and you should be all in cash. Such an extreme move is ill-advised without a significant weight of evidence.\nHowever, there is reason to be cautious in the near term.\nSuppressed Volatility\nAs I stated, during a “bullish advance,”investors become incredibly complacent. That“complacency” leads to excessive speculative risk-taking.We see clear evidence of that activity in various“risk-on” asset classes from Cryptocurrencies, to SPAC’s, to“Meme Stocks.”\nA measure of speculative excess is the Volatility Index (VIX). The chart below is from my colleague Jim Colquitt of Armor ETF’s.\nThe top pane is the 15-day moving average of VIX, which is on an inverted scale. The bottom pane is the S&P 500 index.\n\n\n“The market may have one last push higher over the next several weeks. Such will take the VIX even lower and complete the VIX wedge pattern.\nThat pattern has been evident in the last three 10% or greater corrections.\n By this measure, the correction should begin somewhere around July 21st – August 10th.” – Jim Colquitt\n\nAs they say, “timing is everything.”While a July-August time frame is entirely possible, a June-July correction is just as likely. What is essential, as we will discuss momentarily, is understanding that risk is prevalent.\nMarket Exuberance Stretched Again\nIt isn’t just complacency that is suggestive of a short-term market correction. There are numerous others as well.\nAs my friend Daniel Lacalle recently posted, Morgan Stanley‘s market timing indicator is at levels that have typically coincided with market downturns. Just for reference, the current reading is the most “bearish” on record.\n\nFurthermore, a host of other indicators posted by @Not_Jim_Crameralso suggests there are reasons for concern about a correction.\n\nInflationary Warning\nLastly, this note from Tom Bowley caught my eye on Saturday.\n\n“The S&P 500 reached a high on Friday of 4233.45, narrowly eclipsing the all-time high close of 4232.60 from May 7th.\nUnfortunately for the bulls, selling in the final few minutes ruined the breakout attempt. This false breakout, ever so slight, could be quite ominous for next week and there’s one MAJOR reason why. Inflation data.\nThat May 7th all-time high came just days before the shocking April CPI data was released on May 12th. Now here we are back at the high again.\nAs the late Yogi Berra might say, “it’s deja vu all over again!” I don’t believe inflation to be a problem, but just the possibility of it could trigger scary headlines and encourage selling in the week ahead.”\n – Tom Bowley, Stockcharts\n\nThe chart below shows the differential between the annual rates of change of the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI.) It should not be surprising that when PPI surges well ahead of CPI, equity markets tend to run into problems.Such is because this shows producers are unable to pass the inflation along to their customers. Consequently, this leads to reduced earnings and a repricing of risk assets.\n\nTom goes on to state inflation will not be a problem longer-term correctly. However, in the near term, the surge in inflation will weigh on outlooks, creating corrective actions.\nThe Problem With Technicals\nI want to reiterate a point from the most recent newsletter:\n\nThe biggest problem is that technical indicators do not distinguish between a consolidation, a correction, or an outright bear market.\n As such, if you ignore the signals as they occur, by the time you realize it’s a deep correction, it is too late to do much about it.\nTherefore, we must treat each signal with the same respect and adjust risk accordingly. The opportunity costs of doing so are minimal.\n\nIf we reduce risk and the market continues to rise, we can increase risk exposures. Yes, we sacrifice some short-term performance. However, if we reduce risk and the market declines sharply, we not only protect capital during the decline but have the liquidity to deploy at lower price levels.\nSuch is the problem with“buy and hold” strategies. Yes, you will perform in line with the market, but given that you didn’t “sell high,” there is no cash available with which to “buy low” in the future.\nWith that stated, here is the most significant problem of technical analysis.All of the warnings noted above suggest there is a risk of a correction in the near term. However, technical analysis does not differentiate between a 5% pullback, a 10% correction, or a“bear market.”\nYou will only find that out once it begins, and such is why risk management is essential.\n\n“Risk management is much like driving a car. If there is a blind spot ahead, and you don’t tap on the brakes to control your speed, you are unlikely to avoid the hazard ahead.\nYes, tapping on the brakes to provide more control over the car will slow your arrival time to your destination. However, being late is a much better option than not getting there at all.”\n\nJust A Warning\nAgain, I am not implying, suggesting, or stating that such signals mean going 100% to cash. What I am suggesting is that when “sell signals” are given, that is the time when individuals should perform some essential portfolio risk management such as:\n\nTrim back winning positions to original portfolio weights:Investment Rule: Let Winners Run\nSell positions that simply are not working (if the position was not working in a rising market, it likely won’t in a declining market.)Investment Rule: Cut Losers Short\nHold the cash raised from these activities until the next buying opportunity occurs.Investment Rule: Buy Low\n\nAs stated, there is minimal risk in “risk management.” In the long term, the results of avoiding periods of severe capital loss will outweigh missed short-term gains.\nWhile I agree you can not“time the markets,”you can “manage risk” to improve your long-term outcomes.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":455,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":180064560,"gmtCreate":1623164984150,"gmtModify":1631884126700,"author":{"id":"3577057278686923","authorId":"3577057278686923","name":"Stockdapper","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f8b006637b4ffc3dd4d813922d34a8e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577057278686923","idStr":"3577057278686923"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Gevo Strong","listText":"Gevo Strong","text":"Gevo 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coming","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6549edb6e8ced772a5aa5c7e1cf1c8c6","width":"1080","height":"2679"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/114527921","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":442,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":195178667,"gmtCreate":1621266056159,"gmtModify":1631889569804,"author":{"id":"3577057278686923","authorId":"3577057278686923","name":"Stockdapper","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f8b006637b4ffc3dd4d813922d34a8e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577057278686923","idStr":"3577057278686923"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Up up","listText":"Up up","text":"Up up","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3202dd928d045d3a80a643ce3db1428","width":"1080","height":"2679"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/195178667","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":427,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":341678298,"gmtCreate":1617812758214,"gmtModify":1634296348443,"author":{"id":"3577057278686923","authorId":"3577057278686923","name":"Stockdapper","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f8b006637b4ffc3dd4d813922d34a8e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577057278686923","idStr":"3577057278686923"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Tesla go down[龇牙]&nbsp;[龇牙]&nbsp;[龇牙]&nbsp;[龇牙]&nbsp;[龇牙]&nbsp;[龇牙]&nbsp;","listText":"Tesla go down[龇牙]&nbsp;[龇牙]&nbsp;[龇牙]&nbsp;[龇牙]&nbsp;[龇牙]&nbsp;[龇牙]&nbsp;","text":"Tesla go down[龇牙] [龇牙] [龇牙] [龇牙] [龇牙] [龇牙]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b6bc3581ebf2508ab35f34b4b5b4f7d","width":"1080","height":"1950"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/341678298","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":554,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":355145426,"gmtCreate":1617048941965,"gmtModify":1634522958110,"author":{"id":"3577057278686923","authorId":"3577057278686923","name":"Stockdapper","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f8b006637b4ffc3dd4d813922d34a8e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577057278686923","authorIdStr":"3577057278686923"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Down to all stocks[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"Down to all stocks[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;","text":"Down to all stocks[开心] [开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/355145426","repostId":"1119928689","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":537,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":355145791,"gmtCreate":1617048975213,"gmtModify":1634522957989,"author":{"id":"3577057278686923","authorId":"3577057278686923","name":"Stockdapper","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f8b006637b4ffc3dd4d813922d34a8e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577057278686923","authorIdStr":"3577057278686923"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Down to all stocks[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"Down to all stocks[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;","text":"Down to all stocks[开心] [开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/355145791","repostId":"2123590172","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2123590172","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga Earnings","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1617030981,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2123590172?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-29 23:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"A Look Into Credit Suisse Group's Price Over Earnings<blockquote>看看瑞士信贷集团的市盈率</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2123590172","media":"Benzinga Earnings","summary":" ","content":"<p>Looking into the current session, <b>Credit Suisse Group Inc. </b>(NYSE:CS) is trading at $11.20, after a 12.91% decrease. Over the past month, the stock fell by 21.29%, but over the past year, it actually increased by 38.45%. With questionable short-term performance like this, and great long-term performance, long-term shareholders might want to start looking into the company's price-to-earnings ratio.</p><p><blockquote>纵观本届会议，<b>瑞士信贷集团公司。</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：CS）下跌 12.91%，交易价格为 11.20 美元。在过去的一个月里，该股下跌了21.29%，但在过去的一年里，它实际上上涨了38.45%。由于短期业绩如此可疑，而长期业绩却十分出色，长期股东可能需要开始研究公司的市盈率。</blockquote></p><p> Assuming that all other factors are held constant, this could present itself as an opportunity for shareholders trying to capitalize on the higher share price. The stock is currently below from its 52 week high by 25<b>.08%</b>.</p><p><blockquote>假设所有其他因素保持不变，这可能会成为试图利用股价上涨的股东的机会。该股目前较 52 周高点低 25<b>.08%</b>.</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c3d015235257ee54e197b7a11999931\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"600\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The P/E ratio measures the current share price to the company's EPS. It is used by long-term investors to analyze the company's current performance against its past earnings, historical data and aggregate market data for the industry or the indices, such as S&amp;P 500. A higher P/E indicates that investors expect the company to perform better in the future, and the stock is probably overvalued, but not necessarily. It also shows that investors are willing to pay a higher share price currently, because they expect the company to perform better in the upcoming quarters. This leads investors to also remain optimistic about rising dividends in the future.</p><p><blockquote>市盈率衡量当前股价与公司每股收益的比率。长期投资者使用它来分析公司当前的业绩，与其过去的收益、历史数据以及行业或指数（例如标普500）的汇总市场数据。较高的市盈率表明投资者预计该公司未来会有更好的表现，该股可能被高估，但不一定。这也表明投资者目前愿意支付更高的股价，因为他们预计该公司在未来几个季度的表现会更好。这也导致投资者对未来股息上升保持乐观。</blockquote></p><p> Most often, an industry will prevail in a particular phase of a business cycle, than other industries.</p><p><blockquote>通常情况下，一个行业会在商业周期的特定阶段比其他行业占据主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> Credit Suisse Group Inc. has a lower P/E than the aggregate P/E of <b>36.98</b> of the Capital Markets industry. Ideally, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> might believe that the stock might perform worse than its peers, but it's also probable that the stock is undervalued.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷集团公司的市盈率低于<b>36.98</b>资本市场行业。理想情况下，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">一</a>可能认为该股的表现可能比同行差，但该股也可能被低估。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://www.benzinga.com/files/images/story/2021/1617030835_1.png\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> P/E ratio is not always a great indicator of the company's performance. Depending on the earnings makeup of a company, investors can become unable to attain key insights from trailing earnings.</p><p><blockquote>市盈率并不总是公司业绩的一个很好的指标。根据公司的盈利构成，投资者可能无法从过往盈利中获得关键见解。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A Look Into Credit Suisse Group's Price Over Earnings<blockquote>看看瑞士信贷集团的市盈率</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA Look Into Credit Suisse Group's Price Over Earnings<blockquote>看看瑞士信贷集团的市盈率</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga Earnings </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-29 23:16</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Looking into the current session, <b>Credit Suisse Group Inc. </b>(NYSE:CS) is trading at $11.20, after a 12.91% decrease. Over the past month, the stock fell by 21.29%, but over the past year, it actually increased by 38.45%. With questionable short-term performance like this, and great long-term performance, long-term shareholders might want to start looking into the company's price-to-earnings ratio.</p><p><blockquote>纵观本届会议，<b>瑞士信贷集团公司。</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：CS）下跌 12.91%，交易价格为 11.20 美元。在过去的一个月里，该股下跌了21.29%，但在过去的一年里，它实际上上涨了38.45%。由于短期业绩如此可疑，而长期业绩却十分出色，长期股东可能需要开始研究公司的市盈率。</blockquote></p><p> Assuming that all other factors are held constant, this could present itself as an opportunity for shareholders trying to capitalize on the higher share price. The stock is currently below from its 52 week high by 25<b>.08%</b>.</p><p><blockquote>假设所有其他因素保持不变，这可能会成为试图利用股价上涨的股东的机会。该股目前较 52 周高点低 25<b>.08%</b>.</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c3d015235257ee54e197b7a11999931\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"600\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The P/E ratio measures the current share price to the company's EPS. It is used by long-term investors to analyze the company's current performance against its past earnings, historical data and aggregate market data for the industry or the indices, such as S&amp;P 500. A higher P/E indicates that investors expect the company to perform better in the future, and the stock is probably overvalued, but not necessarily. It also shows that investors are willing to pay a higher share price currently, because they expect the company to perform better in the upcoming quarters. This leads investors to also remain optimistic about rising dividends in the future.</p><p><blockquote>市盈率衡量当前股价与公司每股收益的比率。长期投资者使用它来分析公司当前的业绩，与其过去的收益、历史数据以及行业或指数（例如标普500）的汇总市场数据。较高的市盈率表明投资者预计该公司未来会有更好的表现，该股可能被高估，但不一定。这也表明投资者目前愿意支付更高的股价，因为他们预计该公司在未来几个季度的表现会更好。这也导致投资者对未来股息上升保持乐观。</blockquote></p><p> Most often, an industry will prevail in a particular phase of a business cycle, than other industries.</p><p><blockquote>通常情况下，一个行业会在商业周期的特定阶段比其他行业占据主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> Credit Suisse Group Inc. has a lower P/E than the aggregate P/E of <b>36.98</b> of the Capital Markets industry. Ideally, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> might believe that the stock might perform worse than its peers, but it's also probable that the stock is undervalued.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷集团公司的市盈率低于<b>36.98</b>资本市场行业。理想情况下，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">一</a>可能认为该股的表现可能比同行差，但该股也可能被低估。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://www.benzinga.com/files/images/story/2021/1617030835_1.png\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> P/E ratio is not always a great indicator of the company's performance. Depending on the earnings makeup of a company, investors can become unable to attain key insights from trailing earnings.</p><p><blockquote>市盈率并不总是公司业绩的一个很好的指标。根据公司的盈利构成，投资者可能无法从过往盈利中获得关键见解。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69af882c29a3ff047224139fe1096d17","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2123590172","content_text":"Looking into the current session, Credit Suisse Group Inc. (NYSE:CS) is trading at $11.20, after a 12.91% decrease. Over the past month, the stock fell by 21.29%, but over the past year, it actually increased by 38.45%. With questionable short-term performance like this, and great long-term performance, long-term shareholders might want to start looking into the company's price-to-earnings ratio.\nAssuming that all other factors are held constant, this could present itself as an opportunity for shareholders trying to capitalize on the higher share price. The stock is currently below from its 52 week high by 25.08%.\n\nThe P/E ratio measures the current share price to the company's EPS. It is used by long-term investors to analyze the company's current performance against its past earnings, historical data and aggregate market data for the industry or the indices, such as S&P 500. A higher P/E indicates that investors expect the company to perform better in the future, and the stock is probably overvalued, but not necessarily. It also shows that investors are willing to pay a higher share price currently, because they expect the company to perform better in the upcoming quarters. This leads investors to also remain optimistic about rising dividends in the future.\nMost often, an industry will prevail in a particular phase of a business cycle, than other industries.\nCredit Suisse Group Inc. has a lower P/E than the aggregate P/E of 36.98 of the Capital Markets industry. Ideally, one might believe that the stock might perform worse than its peers, but it's also probable that the stock is undervalued.\n\nP/E ratio is not always a great indicator of the company's performance. Depending on the earnings makeup of a company, investors can become unable to attain key insights from trailing earnings.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":651,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":180025888,"gmtCreate":1623165346544,"gmtModify":1631889569804,"author":{"id":"3577057278686923","authorId":"3577057278686923","name":"Stockdapper","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f8b006637b4ffc3dd4d813922d34a8e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577057278686923","authorIdStr":"3577057278686923"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Dangerous","listText":"Dangerous","text":"Dangerous","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/180025888","repostId":"1108456666","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1108456666","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623161829,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1108456666?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-08 22:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Warning Signs A Correction Is Ahead<blockquote>调整即将到来的警告信号</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108456666","media":"zerohedge","summary":"After a decent rally from the recent lows, there are multiple warning signs a correction approaches.","content":"<p>After a decent rally from the recent lows, there are multiple warning signs a correction approaches.</p><p><blockquote>在从近期低点大幅反弹后，有多个警告信号表明调整即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> Over the last few weeks, we&nbsp;<b><i>discussed the rising risk</i></b>&nbsp;of a correction between 5-10%, most likely this summer. Such drawdowns are historically very common within any given year of an ongoing bull market. As&nbsp;<i>Sentiment Trader</i>&nbsp;recently noted, we are now in one of the more extended periods without such an occurrence.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的几周里，我们<b><i>讨论了上升的风险</i></b>调整幅度在 5-10% 之间，很可能是在今年夏天。从历史上看，在持续牛市的任何一年，这种回撤都非常常见。作为<i>情绪交易者</i>最近注意到，我们现在正处于一个较长的时期，没有这种情况发生。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eced82eef65e87252e40ed177a747be9\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Of course, as is always the case, amid a bullish advance, it is easy to become complacent as prices rise.</p><p><blockquote>当然，一如既往，在看涨的情况下，随着价格上涨，人们很容易变得自满。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Before we go any further, it is essential to clarify we are discussing only the potential for a short-term correction.</b>&nbsp;As is often the case, some tend to extrapolate such to mean I am saying a&nbsp;<i>“crash”</i>&nbsp;is coming, and you should be all in cash. Such an extreme move is ill-advised without a significant weight of evidence.</p><p><blockquote><b>在我们进一步讨论之前，有必要澄清我们只讨论短期调整的可能性。</b>正如经常发生的情况一样，有些人倾向于推断这意味着我在说一个<i>“崩溃”</i>要来了，你应该都是现金。在没有大量证据的情况下，这种极端举动是不明智的。</blockquote></p><p> However, there is reason to be cautious in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>然而，短期内有理由保持谨慎。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Suppressed Volatility</b></p><p><blockquote><b>波动性抑制</b></blockquote></p><p> As I stated, during a&nbsp;<i>“bullish advance,”</i>investors become incredibly complacent.&nbsp;<b>That</b><b><i>“complacency”</i></b><b>&nbsp;leads to excessive speculative risk-taking.We see clear evidence of that activity in various</b><b><i>“risk-on”</i></b><b>&nbsp;asset classes from Cryptocurrencies, to SPAC’s, to</b><b><i>“Meme Stocks.”</i></b></p><p><blockquote>正如我所说，在一个<i>“看涨上涨”</i>投资者变得无比自满。<b>那个</b><b><i>“自满”</i></b><b>导致过度投机冒险。我们在各种情况下看到这种活动明显证据</b><b><i>“冒险”</i></b><b>资产类别从加密货币到特殊目的收购公司，再到</b><b><i>“模因股票。”</i></b></blockquote></p><p> A measure of speculative excess is the Volatility Index (VIX). The chart below is from my colleague Jim Colquitt of&nbsp;<i>Armor ETF’s.</i></p><p><blockquote>投机过度的衡量标准是波动性指数（VIX）。下图来自我的同事吉姆·科尔奎特<i>装甲ETF。</i></blockquote></p><p> The top pane is the&nbsp;15-day moving average of VIX, which is on an inverted scale. The bottom pane is the S&amp;P 500 index.</p><p><blockquote>顶部窗格是 VIX 的 15 天移动平均线，该平均线呈倒排比例。底部窗格是标普500指数。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/245e68edb15dbfa4f8f146a789b89809\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"712\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>   <i>“The market may have one last push higher over the next several weeks. Such will take the VIX even lower and complete the VIX wedge pattern.</i>  <i><b>That pattern has been evident in the last three 10% or greater corrections.</b></i>  <i>&nbsp;By this measure, the correction should begin somewhere around July 21st&nbsp;– August 10th.” – Jim Colquitt</i>  As they say,&nbsp;<i>“timing is everything.”</i>While a July-August time frame is entirely possible, a June-July correction is just as likely. What is essential, as we will discuss momentarily, is understanding that risk is prevalent.</p><p><blockquote><i>“未来几周，市场可能会出现最后一次上涨。这将使 VIX 指数进一步走低，并完成 VIX 楔形形态。</i><i><b>这种模式在过去三次10%或更多的调整中已经很明显了。</b></i><i>按照这个标准，调整应该在7月21日至8月10日左右开始。”吉姆·科尔奎特</i>正如他们所说，<i>“时机就是一切。”</i>虽然 7 月至 8 月的时间框架完全有可能，但 6 月至 7 月的调整也同样有可能。正如我们稍后将要讨论的，重要的是要理解风险是普遍存在的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market Exuberance Stretched Again</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场繁荣再次延长</b></blockquote></p><p> It isn’t just complacency that is suggestive of a short-term market correction. There are numerous others as well.</p><p><blockquote>预示着短期市场调整的不仅仅是自满情绪。还有许多其他的。</blockquote></p><p> As my friend Daniel Lacalle recently posted,&nbsp;Morgan Stanley‘s market timing indicator is at levels that have typically coincided with market downturns. Just for reference, the current reading is the most&nbsp;<i>“bearish”</i>&nbsp;on record.</p><p><blockquote>正如我的朋友丹尼尔·拉卡勒（Daniel Lacalle）最近发布的那样，摩根士丹利的市场时机指标处于通常与市场低迷同时出现的水平。仅供参考，目前的读数是最<i>“看跌”</i>有记录。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c918064930caffdab80b05f255085f9\" tg-width=\"1085\" tg-height=\"459\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, a host of other indicators posted by&nbsp;<b><i>@Not_Jim_Cramer</i></b>also suggests there are reasons for concern about a correction.</p><p><blockquote>此外，公布的许多其他指标<b><i>@不是吉姆·克莱默</i></b>也表明有理由担心修正。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12bad2caf91007cd9b37c0ef04e90e29\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"547\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Inflationary Warning</b></p><p><blockquote><b>通货膨胀警告</b></blockquote></p><p> Lastly, this note from Tom Bowley caught my eye on Saturday.</p><p><blockquote>最后，汤姆·鲍利的这张纸条在周六引起了我的注意。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“The S&amp;P 500 reached a high on Friday of 4233.45, narrowly eclipsing the all-time high close of 4232.60 from May 7th.</i>  <i><b>Unfortunately for the bulls, selling in the final few minutes ruined the breakout attempt. This false breakout, ever so slight, could be quite ominous for next week and there’s one MAJOR reason why. Inflation data.</b></i>  <i>That May 7th all-time high came just days before the shocking April CPI data was released on May 12th. Now here we are back at the high again.</i>  <i><b>As the late Yogi Berra might say, “it’s deja vu all over again!” I don’t believe inflation to be a problem, but just the possibility of it could trigger scary headlines and encourage selling in the week ahead.”</b></i>  <i>&nbsp;–&nbsp;Tom Bowley, Stockcharts</i>  The chart below shows the differential between the annual rates of change of the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI.)&nbsp;<b>It should not be surprising that when PPI surges well ahead of CPI, equity markets tend to run into problems.Such is because this shows producers are unable to pass the inflation along to their customers.</b>&nbsp;Consequently, this leads to reduced earnings and a repricing of risk assets.</p><p><blockquote><i>“标普500周五触及4233.45的高点，以微弱优势超过了5月7日4232.60的历史收盘高点。</i><i><b>对多头来说不幸的是，最后几分钟的抛售破坏了突破的尝试。这种虚假的突破虽然非常轻微，但对下周来说可能是相当不祥的，其中有一个主要原因。通货膨胀数据。</b></i><i>5 月 7 日的历史新高就在 5 月 12 日令人震惊的 4 月份 CPI 数据公布的前几天。现在我们又回到了高潮。</i><i><b>正如已故的瑜伽士贝拉所说：“又是似曾相识!”我不认为通货膨胀是个问题，但通货膨胀的可能性就可能引发可怕的头条新闻，并鼓励未来一周的抛售。”</b></i><i>– 汤姆·鲍利，股票图表</i>下图显示了生产者价格指数（PPI）和消费者价格指数（CPI）的年变化率之间的差异。<b>当PPI远远领先于CPI时，股市往往会遇到问题，这并不奇怪。这是因为这表明制片人无法将通货膨胀转嫁给他们的客户。</b>因此，这导致收益减少和风险资产重新定价。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bf24f2c1d3200f6fdb7a14a83d419b5\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"519\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Tom goes on to state inflation will not be a problem longer-term correctly. However, in the near term, the surge in inflation will weigh on outlooks, creating corrective actions.</p><p><blockquote>汤姆继续正确地指出，从长远来看，通货膨胀不会是一个问题。然而，在短期内，通胀飙升将给前景带来压力，从而引发纠正措施。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Problem With Technicals</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术人员的问题</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> I want to reiterate a point from the most recent&nbsp;<b><i>newsletter:</i></b></p><p><blockquote>我想重申最近的一点<b><i>通讯：</i></b></blockquote></p><p>   <i><b>The biggest problem is that technical indicators do not distinguish between a consolidation, a correction, or an outright bear market.</b></i>  <i>&nbsp;As such, if you ignore the signals as they occur, by the time you realize it’s a deep correction, it is too late to do much about it.</i>  <i><b>Therefore, we must treat each signal with the same respect and adjust risk accordingly. The opportunity costs of doing so are minimal.</b></i>  If we reduce risk and the market continues to rise, we can increase risk exposures. Yes, we sacrifice some short-term performance. However, if we reduce risk and the market declines sharply, we not only protect capital during the decline but have the liquidity to deploy at lower price levels.</p><p><blockquote><i><b>最大的问题是技术指标无法区分盘整、回调或彻底的熊市。</b></i><i>因此，如果你忽略了这些信号，当你意识到这是一次深度修正时，就为时已晚了。</i><i><b>因此，我们必须以同样的尊重对待每个信号，并相应地调整风险。这样做的机会成本很小。</b></i>如果我们降低风险，而市场继续上涨，我们可以增加风险敞口。是的，我们牺牲了一些短期业绩。然而，如果我们降低风险，市场大幅下跌，我们不仅可以在下跌期间保护资本，还可以在较低的价格水平部署流动性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Such is the problem with</b><b><i>“buy and hold”</i></b><b>&nbsp;strategies.</b>&nbsp;Yes, you will perform in line with the market, but given that you didn’t&nbsp;<i>“sell high,”</i>&nbsp;there is no cash available with which to&nbsp;<i>“buy low”</i>&nbsp;in the future.</p><p><blockquote><b>这就是问题</b><b><i>“买入并持有”</i></b><b>策略。</b>是的，你的表现会与市场保持一致，但鉴于你没有<i>“高抛，”</i>没有可用的现金<i>“低价买入”</i>在未来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>With that stated, here is the most significant problem of technical analysis.</b>All of the warnings noted above suggest there is a risk of a correction in the near term.&nbsp;<b>However, technical analysis does not differentiate between a 5% pullback, a 10% correction, or a</b><b><i>“bear market.”</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b>综上所述，这就是技术分析最重要的问题。</b>上述所有警告都表明短期内存在调整的风险。<b>然而，技术分析并不区分 5% 的回调、10% 的修正或</b><b><i>“熊市。”</i></b></blockquote></p><p> <b>You will only find that out once it begins, and such is why risk management is essential.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一旦开始，你才会发现这一点，这就是为什么风险管理是必不可少的。</b></blockquote></p><p>   <i>“Risk management is much like driving a car. If there is a blind spot ahead, and you don’t tap on the brakes to control your speed, you are unlikely to avoid the hazard ahead.</i>  <b><i>Yes, tapping on the brakes to provide more control over the car will slow your arrival time to your destination. However, being late is a much better option than not getting there at all.”</i></b>  <b>Just A Warning</b></p><p><blockquote><i>“风险管理就像驾驶汽车。如果前方有一个盲点，而你不踩刹车来控制速度，你就不可能避免前方的危险。</i><b><i>是的，踩刹车来更好地控制汽车会减慢你到达目的地的时间。不过，迟到总比没到要好得多。”</i></b><b>只是一个警告</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Again, I am not implying, suggesting, or stating that such signals mean going 100% to cash.</b>&nbsp;What I am suggesting is that when&nbsp;<i>“sell signals”</i>&nbsp;are given, that is the time when individuals should perform some essential portfolio risk management such as:</p><p><blockquote><b>再次强调，我并不是暗示、暗示或声明此类信号意味着 100% 兑现。</b>我的意思是当<i>卖出信号</i>给定，这是个人应该执行一些基本的投资组合风险管理的时间，例如：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Trim back winning positions to original portfolio weights:</i><i><b>Investment Rule: Let Winners Run</b></i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>将获胜头寸削减至原始投资组合权重：</i><i><b>投资规则：让赢家跑</b></i></li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><i>Sell positions that simply are not working (if the position was not working in a rising market, it likely won’t in a declining market.)</i><i><b>Investment Rule: Cut Losers Short</b></i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>卖出根本不起作用的头寸（如果头寸在上涨市场不起作用，那么在下跌市场很可能也不起作用）。</i><i><b>投资规则：做空输家</b></i></li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><i>Hold the cash raised from these activities until the next buying opportunity occurs.</i><i><b>Investment Rule: Buy Low</b></i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>持有从这些活动中筹集的现金，直到下一个购买机会出现。</i><i><b>投资规则：低买入</b></i></li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> As stated, there is minimal risk in&nbsp;<i>“risk management.”</i>&nbsp;In the long term, the results of avoiding periods of severe capital loss will outweigh missed short-term gains.</p><p><blockquote>如前所述，风险极小<i>风险管理。</i>从长远来看，避免严重资本损失的结果将超过错失的短期收益。</blockquote></p><p> <b>While I agree you can not</b><b><i>“time the markets,”you can “manage risk” to improve your long-term outcomes.</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b>虽然我同意你不能</b><b><i>“把握市场时机”，您就可以 “管理风险 ”以改善长期业绩。</i></b></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Warning Signs A Correction Is Ahead<blockquote>调整即将到来的警告信号</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWarning Signs A Correction Is Ahead<blockquote>调整即将到来的警告信号</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-08 22:17</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>After a decent rally from the recent lows, there are multiple warning signs a correction approaches.</p><p><blockquote>在从近期低点大幅反弹后，有多个警告信号表明调整即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> Over the last few weeks, we&nbsp;<b><i>discussed the rising risk</i></b>&nbsp;of a correction between 5-10%, most likely this summer. Such drawdowns are historically very common within any given year of an ongoing bull market. As&nbsp;<i>Sentiment Trader</i>&nbsp;recently noted, we are now in one of the more extended periods without such an occurrence.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的几周里，我们<b><i>讨论了上升的风险</i></b>调整幅度在 5-10% 之间，很可能是在今年夏天。从历史上看，在持续牛市的任何一年，这种回撤都非常常见。作为<i>情绪交易者</i>最近注意到，我们现在正处于一个较长的时期，没有这种情况发生。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eced82eef65e87252e40ed177a747be9\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Of course, as is always the case, amid a bullish advance, it is easy to become complacent as prices rise.</p><p><blockquote>当然，一如既往，在看涨的情况下，随着价格上涨，人们很容易变得自满。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Before we go any further, it is essential to clarify we are discussing only the potential for a short-term correction.</b>&nbsp;As is often the case, some tend to extrapolate such to mean I am saying a&nbsp;<i>“crash”</i>&nbsp;is coming, and you should be all in cash. Such an extreme move is ill-advised without a significant weight of evidence.</p><p><blockquote><b>在我们进一步讨论之前，有必要澄清我们只讨论短期调整的可能性。</b>正如经常发生的情况一样，有些人倾向于推断这意味着我在说一个<i>“崩溃”</i>要来了，你应该都是现金。在没有大量证据的情况下，这种极端举动是不明智的。</blockquote></p><p> However, there is reason to be cautious in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>然而，短期内有理由保持谨慎。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Suppressed Volatility</b></p><p><blockquote><b>波动性抑制</b></blockquote></p><p> As I stated, during a&nbsp;<i>“bullish advance,”</i>investors become incredibly complacent.&nbsp;<b>That</b><b><i>“complacency”</i></b><b>&nbsp;leads to excessive speculative risk-taking.We see clear evidence of that activity in various</b><b><i>“risk-on”</i></b><b>&nbsp;asset classes from Cryptocurrencies, to SPAC’s, to</b><b><i>“Meme Stocks.”</i></b></p><p><blockquote>正如我所说，在一个<i>“看涨上涨”</i>投资者变得无比自满。<b>那个</b><b><i>“自满”</i></b><b>导致过度投机冒险。我们在各种情况下看到这种活动明显证据</b><b><i>“冒险”</i></b><b>资产类别从加密货币到特殊目的收购公司，再到</b><b><i>“模因股票。”</i></b></blockquote></p><p> A measure of speculative excess is the Volatility Index (VIX). The chart below is from my colleague Jim Colquitt of&nbsp;<i>Armor ETF’s.</i></p><p><blockquote>投机过度的衡量标准是波动性指数（VIX）。下图来自我的同事吉姆·科尔奎特<i>装甲ETF。</i></blockquote></p><p> The top pane is the&nbsp;15-day moving average of VIX, which is on an inverted scale. The bottom pane is the S&amp;P 500 index.</p><p><blockquote>顶部窗格是 VIX 的 15 天移动平均线，该平均线呈倒排比例。底部窗格是标普500指数。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/245e68edb15dbfa4f8f146a789b89809\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"712\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>   <i>“The market may have one last push higher over the next several weeks. Such will take the VIX even lower and complete the VIX wedge pattern.</i>  <i><b>That pattern has been evident in the last three 10% or greater corrections.</b></i>  <i>&nbsp;By this measure, the correction should begin somewhere around July 21st&nbsp;– August 10th.” – Jim Colquitt</i>  As they say,&nbsp;<i>“timing is everything.”</i>While a July-August time frame is entirely possible, a June-July correction is just as likely. What is essential, as we will discuss momentarily, is understanding that risk is prevalent.</p><p><blockquote><i>“未来几周，市场可能会出现最后一次上涨。这将使 VIX 指数进一步走低，并完成 VIX 楔形形态。</i><i><b>这种模式在过去三次10%或更多的调整中已经很明显了。</b></i><i>按照这个标准，调整应该在7月21日至8月10日左右开始。”吉姆·科尔奎特</i>正如他们所说，<i>“时机就是一切。”</i>虽然 7 月至 8 月的时间框架完全有可能，但 6 月至 7 月的调整也同样有可能。正如我们稍后将要讨论的，重要的是要理解风险是普遍存在的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market Exuberance Stretched Again</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场繁荣再次延长</b></blockquote></p><p> It isn’t just complacency that is suggestive of a short-term market correction. There are numerous others as well.</p><p><blockquote>预示着短期市场调整的不仅仅是自满情绪。还有许多其他的。</blockquote></p><p> As my friend Daniel Lacalle recently posted,&nbsp;Morgan Stanley‘s market timing indicator is at levels that have typically coincided with market downturns. Just for reference, the current reading is the most&nbsp;<i>“bearish”</i>&nbsp;on record.</p><p><blockquote>正如我的朋友丹尼尔·拉卡勒（Daniel Lacalle）最近发布的那样，摩根士丹利的市场时机指标处于通常与市场低迷同时出现的水平。仅供参考，目前的读数是最<i>“看跌”</i>有记录。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c918064930caffdab80b05f255085f9\" tg-width=\"1085\" tg-height=\"459\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, a host of other indicators posted by&nbsp;<b><i>@Not_Jim_Cramer</i></b>also suggests there are reasons for concern about a correction.</p><p><blockquote>此外，公布的许多其他指标<b><i>@不是吉姆·克莱默</i></b>也表明有理由担心修正。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12bad2caf91007cd9b37c0ef04e90e29\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"547\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Inflationary Warning</b></p><p><blockquote><b>通货膨胀警告</b></blockquote></p><p> Lastly, this note from Tom Bowley caught my eye on Saturday.</p><p><blockquote>最后，汤姆·鲍利的这张纸条在周六引起了我的注意。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“The S&amp;P 500 reached a high on Friday of 4233.45, narrowly eclipsing the all-time high close of 4232.60 from May 7th.</i>  <i><b>Unfortunately for the bulls, selling in the final few minutes ruined the breakout attempt. This false breakout, ever so slight, could be quite ominous for next week and there’s one MAJOR reason why. Inflation data.</b></i>  <i>That May 7th all-time high came just days before the shocking April CPI data was released on May 12th. Now here we are back at the high again.</i>  <i><b>As the late Yogi Berra might say, “it’s deja vu all over again!” I don’t believe inflation to be a problem, but just the possibility of it could trigger scary headlines and encourage selling in the week ahead.”</b></i>  <i>&nbsp;–&nbsp;Tom Bowley, Stockcharts</i>  The chart below shows the differential between the annual rates of change of the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI.)&nbsp;<b>It should not be surprising that when PPI surges well ahead of CPI, equity markets tend to run into problems.Such is because this shows producers are unable to pass the inflation along to their customers.</b>&nbsp;Consequently, this leads to reduced earnings and a repricing of risk assets.</p><p><blockquote><i>“标普500周五触及4233.45的高点，以微弱优势超过了5月7日4232.60的历史收盘高点。</i><i><b>对多头来说不幸的是，最后几分钟的抛售破坏了突破的尝试。这种虚假的突破虽然非常轻微，但对下周来说可能是相当不祥的，其中有一个主要原因。通货膨胀数据。</b></i><i>5 月 7 日的历史新高就在 5 月 12 日令人震惊的 4 月份 CPI 数据公布的前几天。现在我们又回到了高潮。</i><i><b>正如已故的瑜伽士贝拉所说：“又是似曾相识!”我不认为通货膨胀是个问题，但通货膨胀的可能性就可能引发可怕的头条新闻，并鼓励未来一周的抛售。”</b></i><i>– 汤姆·鲍利，股票图表</i>下图显示了生产者价格指数（PPI）和消费者价格指数（CPI）的年变化率之间的差异。<b>当PPI远远领先于CPI时，股市往往会遇到问题，这并不奇怪。这是因为这表明制片人无法将通货膨胀转嫁给他们的客户。</b>因此，这导致收益减少和风险资产重新定价。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bf24f2c1d3200f6fdb7a14a83d419b5\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"519\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Tom goes on to state inflation will not be a problem longer-term correctly. However, in the near term, the surge in inflation will weigh on outlooks, creating corrective actions.</p><p><blockquote>汤姆继续正确地指出，从长远来看，通货膨胀不会是一个问题。然而，在短期内，通胀飙升将给前景带来压力，从而引发纠正措施。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Problem With Technicals</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术人员的问题</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> I want to reiterate a point from the most recent&nbsp;<b><i>newsletter:</i></b></p><p><blockquote>我想重申最近的一点<b><i>通讯：</i></b></blockquote></p><p>   <i><b>The biggest problem is that technical indicators do not distinguish between a consolidation, a correction, or an outright bear market.</b></i>  <i>&nbsp;As such, if you ignore the signals as they occur, by the time you realize it’s a deep correction, it is too late to do much about it.</i>  <i><b>Therefore, we must treat each signal with the same respect and adjust risk accordingly. The opportunity costs of doing so are minimal.</b></i>  If we reduce risk and the market continues to rise, we can increase risk exposures. Yes, we sacrifice some short-term performance. However, if we reduce risk and the market declines sharply, we not only protect capital during the decline but have the liquidity to deploy at lower price levels.</p><p><blockquote><i><b>最大的问题是技术指标无法区分盘整、回调或彻底的熊市。</b></i><i>因此，如果你忽略了这些信号，当你意识到这是一次深度修正时，就为时已晚了。</i><i><b>因此，我们必须以同样的尊重对待每个信号，并相应地调整风险。这样做的机会成本很小。</b></i>如果我们降低风险，而市场继续上涨，我们可以增加风险敞口。是的，我们牺牲了一些短期业绩。然而，如果我们降低风险，市场大幅下跌，我们不仅可以在下跌期间保护资本，还可以在较低的价格水平部署流动性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Such is the problem with</b><b><i>“buy and hold”</i></b><b>&nbsp;strategies.</b>&nbsp;Yes, you will perform in line with the market, but given that you didn’t&nbsp;<i>“sell high,”</i>&nbsp;there is no cash available with which to&nbsp;<i>“buy low”</i>&nbsp;in the future.</p><p><blockquote><b>这就是问题</b><b><i>“买入并持有”</i></b><b>策略。</b>是的，你的表现会与市场保持一致，但鉴于你没有<i>“高抛，”</i>没有可用的现金<i>“低价买入”</i>在未来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>With that stated, here is the most significant problem of technical analysis.</b>All of the warnings noted above suggest there is a risk of a correction in the near term.&nbsp;<b>However, technical analysis does not differentiate between a 5% pullback, a 10% correction, or a</b><b><i>“bear market.”</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b>综上所述，这就是技术分析最重要的问题。</b>上述所有警告都表明短期内存在调整的风险。<b>然而，技术分析并不区分 5% 的回调、10% 的修正或</b><b><i>“熊市。”</i></b></blockquote></p><p> <b>You will only find that out once it begins, and such is why risk management is essential.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一旦开始，你才会发现这一点，这就是为什么风险管理是必不可少的。</b></blockquote></p><p>   <i>“Risk management is much like driving a car. If there is a blind spot ahead, and you don’t tap on the brakes to control your speed, you are unlikely to avoid the hazard ahead.</i>  <b><i>Yes, tapping on the brakes to provide more control over the car will slow your arrival time to your destination. However, being late is a much better option than not getting there at all.”</i></b>  <b>Just A Warning</b></p><p><blockquote><i>“风险管理就像驾驶汽车。如果前方有一个盲点，而你不踩刹车来控制速度，你就不可能避免前方的危险。</i><b><i>是的，踩刹车来更好地控制汽车会减慢你到达目的地的时间。不过，迟到总比没到要好得多。”</i></b><b>只是一个警告</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Again, I am not implying, suggesting, or stating that such signals mean going 100% to cash.</b>&nbsp;What I am suggesting is that when&nbsp;<i>“sell signals”</i>&nbsp;are given, that is the time when individuals should perform some essential portfolio risk management such as:</p><p><blockquote><b>再次强调，我并不是暗示、暗示或声明此类信号意味着 100% 兑现。</b>我的意思是当<i>卖出信号</i>给定，这是个人应该执行一些基本的投资组合风险管理的时间，例如：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Trim back winning positions to original portfolio weights:</i><i><b>Investment Rule: Let Winners Run</b></i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>将获胜头寸削减至原始投资组合权重：</i><i><b>投资规则：让赢家跑</b></i></li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><i>Sell positions that simply are not working (if the position was not working in a rising market, it likely won’t in a declining market.)</i><i><b>Investment Rule: Cut Losers Short</b></i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>卖出根本不起作用的头寸（如果头寸在上涨市场不起作用，那么在下跌市场很可能也不起作用）。</i><i><b>投资规则：做空输家</b></i></li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><i>Hold the cash raised from these activities until the next buying opportunity occurs.</i><i><b>Investment Rule: Buy Low</b></i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>持有从这些活动中筹集的现金，直到下一个购买机会出现。</i><i><b>投资规则：低买入</b></i></li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> As stated, there is minimal risk in&nbsp;<i>“risk management.”</i>&nbsp;In the long term, the results of avoiding periods of severe capital loss will outweigh missed short-term gains.</p><p><blockquote>如前所述，风险极小<i>风险管理。</i>从长远来看，避免严重资本损失的结果将超过错失的短期收益。</blockquote></p><p> <b>While I agree you can not</b><b><i>“time the markets,”you can “manage risk” to improve your long-term outcomes.</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b>虽然我同意你不能</b><b><i>“把握市场时机”，您就可以 “管理风险 ”以改善长期业绩。</i></b></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/warning-signs-correction-ahead?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/warning-signs-correction-ahead?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108456666","content_text":"After a decent rally from the recent lows, there are multiple warning signs a correction approaches.\nOver the last few weeks, we discussed the rising risk of a correction between 5-10%, most likely this summer. Such drawdowns are historically very common within any given year of an ongoing bull market. As Sentiment Trader recently noted, we are now in one of the more extended periods without such an occurrence.\nOf course, as is always the case, amid a bullish advance, it is easy to become complacent as prices rise.\nBefore we go any further, it is essential to clarify we are discussing only the potential for a short-term correction. As is often the case, some tend to extrapolate such to mean I am saying a “crash” is coming, and you should be all in cash. Such an extreme move is ill-advised without a significant weight of evidence.\nHowever, there is reason to be cautious in the near term.\nSuppressed Volatility\nAs I stated, during a “bullish advance,”investors become incredibly complacent. That“complacency” leads to excessive speculative risk-taking.We see clear evidence of that activity in various“risk-on” asset classes from Cryptocurrencies, to SPAC’s, to“Meme Stocks.”\nA measure of speculative excess is the Volatility Index (VIX). The chart below is from my colleague Jim Colquitt of Armor ETF’s.\nThe top pane is the 15-day moving average of VIX, which is on an inverted scale. The bottom pane is the S&P 500 index.\n\n\n“The market may have one last push higher over the next several weeks. Such will take the VIX even lower and complete the VIX wedge pattern.\nThat pattern has been evident in the last three 10% or greater corrections.\n By this measure, the correction should begin somewhere around July 21st – August 10th.” – Jim Colquitt\n\nAs they say, “timing is everything.”While a July-August time frame is entirely possible, a June-July correction is just as likely. What is essential, as we will discuss momentarily, is understanding that risk is prevalent.\nMarket Exuberance Stretched Again\nIt isn’t just complacency that is suggestive of a short-term market correction. There are numerous others as well.\nAs my friend Daniel Lacalle recently posted, Morgan Stanley‘s market timing indicator is at levels that have typically coincided with market downturns. Just for reference, the current reading is the most “bearish” on record.\n\nFurthermore, a host of other indicators posted by @Not_Jim_Crameralso suggests there are reasons for concern about a correction.\n\nInflationary Warning\nLastly, this note from Tom Bowley caught my eye on Saturday.\n\n“The S&P 500 reached a high on Friday of 4233.45, narrowly eclipsing the all-time high close of 4232.60 from May 7th.\nUnfortunately for the bulls, selling in the final few minutes ruined the breakout attempt. This false breakout, ever so slight, could be quite ominous for next week and there’s one MAJOR reason why. Inflation data.\nThat May 7th all-time high came just days before the shocking April CPI data was released on May 12th. Now here we are back at the high again.\nAs the late Yogi Berra might say, “it’s deja vu all over again!” I don’t believe inflation to be a problem, but just the possibility of it could trigger scary headlines and encourage selling in the week ahead.”\n – Tom Bowley, Stockcharts\n\nThe chart below shows the differential between the annual rates of change of the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI.) It should not be surprising that when PPI surges well ahead of CPI, equity markets tend to run into problems.Such is because this shows producers are unable to pass the inflation along to their customers. Consequently, this leads to reduced earnings and a repricing of risk assets.\n\nTom goes on to state inflation will not be a problem longer-term correctly. However, in the near term, the surge in inflation will weigh on outlooks, creating corrective actions.\nThe Problem With Technicals\nI want to reiterate a point from the most recent newsletter:\n\nThe biggest problem is that technical indicators do not distinguish between a consolidation, a correction, or an outright bear market.\n As such, if you ignore the signals as they occur, by the time you realize it’s a deep correction, it is too late to do much about it.\nTherefore, we must treat each signal with the same respect and adjust risk accordingly. The opportunity costs of doing so are minimal.\n\nIf we reduce risk and the market continues to rise, we can increase risk exposures. Yes, we sacrifice some short-term performance. However, if we reduce risk and the market declines sharply, we not only protect capital during the decline but have the liquidity to deploy at lower price levels.\nSuch is the problem with“buy and hold” strategies. Yes, you will perform in line with the market, but given that you didn’t “sell high,” there is no cash available with which to “buy low” in the future.\nWith that stated, here is the most significant problem of technical analysis.All of the warnings noted above suggest there is a risk of a correction in the near term. However, technical analysis does not differentiate between a 5% pullback, a 10% correction, or a“bear market.”\nYou will only find that out once it begins, and such is why risk management is essential.\n\n“Risk management is much like driving a car. If there is a blind spot ahead, and you don’t tap on the brakes to control your speed, you are unlikely to avoid the hazard ahead.\nYes, tapping on the brakes to provide more control over the car will slow your arrival time to your destination. However, being late is a much better option than not getting there at all.”\n\nJust A Warning\nAgain, I am not implying, suggesting, or stating that such signals mean going 100% to cash. What I am suggesting is that when “sell signals” are given, that is the time when individuals should perform some essential portfolio risk management such as:\n\nTrim back winning positions to original portfolio weights:Investment Rule: Let Winners Run\nSell positions that simply are not working (if the position was not working in a rising market, it likely won’t in a declining market.)Investment Rule: Cut Losers Short\nHold the cash raised from these activities until the next buying opportunity occurs.Investment Rule: Buy Low\n\nAs stated, there is minimal risk in “risk management.” In the long term, the results of avoiding periods of severe capital loss will outweigh missed short-term gains.\nWhile I agree you can not“time the markets,”you can “manage risk” to improve your long-term outcomes.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":455,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":114527921,"gmtCreate":1623081311463,"gmtModify":1631884126713,"author":{"id":"3577057278686923","authorId":"3577057278686923","name":"Stockdapper","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f8b006637b4ffc3dd4d813922d34a8e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577057278686923","authorIdStr":"3577057278686923"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"GEVO is coming","listText":"GEVO is coming","text":"GEVO is coming","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6549edb6e8ced772a5aa5c7e1cf1c8c6","width":"1080","height":"2679"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/114527921","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":442,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":350172119,"gmtCreate":1616170576131,"gmtModify":1634526869185,"author":{"id":"3577057278686923","authorId":"3577057278686923","name":"Stockdapper","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f8b006637b4ffc3dd4d813922d34a8e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577057278686923","authorIdStr":"3577057278686923"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Down","listText":"Down","text":"Down","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/350172119","repostId":"1199154789","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199154789","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616164372,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1199154789?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-19 22:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fed Disappoints Market, Lets SLR Relief Expire: What Happens Next<blockquote>美联储令市场失望，让 SLR 救济到期：接下来会发生什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199154789","media":"zerohedge","summary":"As washinted at, and discussed in depth here,the Fed decided - under political pressure from progressive Democrats such asElizabeth Warren and Sherrod Brown- to let the temporary Supplementary Leverage Ratio  exemption expire as scheduled on March 31, the one year anniversary of the rule change.The federal bank regulatory agencies today announced that the temporary change to the supplementary leverage ratio, or SLR, for depository institutions issued on May 15, 2020, will expire as scheduled on ","content":"<p>As washinted at, and discussed in depth here,the Fed decided - under political pressure from progressive Democrats such asElizabeth Warren and Sherrod Brown- to let the temporary Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) exemption expire as scheduled on March 31, the one year anniversary of the rule change.</p><p><blockquote>正如这里所讨论和深入讨论的那样，在伊丽莎白·沃伦和谢罗德·布朗等进步民主党人的政治压力下，美联储决定让临时补充杠杆率（SLR）豁免如期于3月31日到期，即规则变更一周年纪念日。</blockquote></p><p>The federal bank regulatory agencies today announced that the temporary change to the supplementary leverage ratio, or SLR, for depository institutions issued on May 15, 2020, will expire as scheduled on March 31, 2021.The temporary change was made to provide flexibility for depository institutions to provide credit to households and businesses in light of the COVID-19 event.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b822960da59d651f093b5113cd0c3fd0\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"319\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">This outcome is theone (again) correctly predictedby former NY Fed guru Zoltan Pozsar who following the FOMC said that \"the fact that the Fed made this adjustment practically preemptively – the o/n RRP facility is not being used at the moment, so there are no capacity constraints yet, while repo and bill yields aren’t trading negative yet –<b>suggests that the Fed is “foaming the runway” for the end of SLR exemption</b>.\"</p><p><blockquote>美联储银行监管机构今天宣布，2020年5月15日发布的存款机构补充杠杆率（SLR）临时变更将于2021年3月31日如期到期。鉴于 COVID-19 事件，做出临时改变是为了让存款机构能够灵活地向家庭和企业提供信贷。纽约联储前大师佐尔坦-波萨尔（Zoltan Pozsar）（再次）正确预测了这一结果，他在联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）之后表示，“事实上，美联储做出这一调整实际上是先发制人的--o/n RRP工具目前没有被使用，因此还没有能力限制，而回购和票据收益率还没有出现负值交易--<b>这表明美联储正在为终止 SLR 豁免“铺平道路”</b>.\"</blockquote></p><p>Knowing well this would be a very hot button issue for the market, the Fed published thefollowing statementto ease trader nerves, noting that while the SLR special treatment will expire on March 31, the Fed is \"inviting public comment on several potential SLR modifications\" and furthermore, \"<b>Board may need to address the current design and calibration of the SLR over time to prevent strains from developing that could both constrain economic growth and undermine financial stability</b>\" - in short, if yields spike, the Fed will re-introduce the SLR without delay:</p><p><blockquote>美联储深知这对市场来说将是一个非常热门的问题，因此发表了以下声明以缓解交易员的紧张情绪，指出虽然 SLR 特殊待遇将于 3 月 31 日到期，但美联储正在“邀请公众对几项潜在的 SLR 修改发表评论”，此外，“<b>随着时间的推移，董事会可能需要解决 SLR 的当前设计和校准问题，以防止出现可能制约经济增长和破坏金融稳定的压力</b>“——简而言之，如果收益率飙升，美联储将立即重新推出 SLR：</blockquote></p><p>The Federal Reserve Board on Friday announced that the temporary change to its supplementary leverage ratio, or SLR, for bank holding companies will expire as scheduled on March 31. <b>Additionally, the Board will shortly seek comment on measures to adjust the SLR. The Board will take appropriate actions to assure that any changes to the SLR do not erode the overall strength of bank capital requirements.</b>To ease strains in the Treasury market resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic and to promote lending to households and businesses, the Board temporarily modified the SLR last year to exclude U.S. Treasury securities and central bank reserves. Since that time, the Treasury market has stabilized. <b>However, because of recent growth in the supply of central bank reserves and the issuance of Treasury securities, the Board may need to address the current design and calibration of the SLR over time to prevent strains from developing that could both constrain economic growth and undermine financial stability.To ensure that the SLR—which was established in 2014 as an additional capital requirement—remains effective in an environment of higher reserves, the Board will soon be inviting public comment on several potential SLR modifications.</b>The proposal and comments will contribute to ongoing discussions with the Department of the Treasury and other regulators on future work to ensure the resiliency of the Treasury market.The Fed's soothing wods notwithstanding,<b>having been primed for a favorable outcome, the Fed's disappointing announcement was hardly the news traders were hoping for and stocks tumbled...</b></p><p><blockquote>美联储周五宣布，银行控股公司补充杠杆率（SLR）的临时变化将于3月31日如期到期。<b>此外，董事会将很快就调整SLR的措施征求意见。董事会将采取适当行动，确保SLR的任何变更不会削弱银行资本要求的整体实力。</b>为了缓解新冠肺炎疫情造成的国债市场压力，并促进对家庭和企业的贷款，董事会去年暂时修改了SLR，将美国国债和央行储备排除在外。此后，国债市场趋于稳定。<b>然而，由于最近央行储备供应和国债发行的增加，董事会可能需要随着时间的推移解决SLR的当前设计和校准问题，以防止出现可能制约经济增长和破坏金融稳定的压力。为了确保 SLR（作为额外资本要求于 2014 年设立）在储备较高的环境下仍然有效，董事会将很快就几项潜在的 SLR 修改征求公众意见。</b>该提案和意见将有助于与财政部和其他监管机构就未来确保国债市场弹性的工作进行持续讨论。尽管美联储提出了宽慰的要求，<b>在为有利的结果做好准备后，美联储令人失望的声明几乎不是交易员所希望的消息，股市暴跌……</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c341c3843a5031cd1599c2c89e198050\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"305\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Bond yields spiked...</p><p><blockquote>债券收益率飙升……</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14173c1ce587fb45efe4c30ecc1dfbab\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"284\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... while the stock of JPM, which is the most exposed bank to SLR relief (as noted yesterday in \"Facing Up To JP Morgan's Leverage Relief Threats\")...</p><p><blockquote>...而摩根大通的股票是最容易受到SLR减免的银行（正如昨天在“面临摩根大通杠杆减免威胁”中所指出的）...</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32811183fba3dbddf1c440836298c7f3\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">.... slumped.</p><p><blockquote>....崩溃了。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fba41463f15e79d2b8436cdd6a526fc\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"306\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In case you've been living under a rock, here's why you should care about the SLR decision: First, for those whomissed our primer on the issue, some background from JPM (ironically the one bank that has the most to lose from the Fed's decision) the bottom line is that without SLR relief,<b>banks may have to delever, raise new capital, halt buybacks, sell preferred stock, turn down deposits and generally push back on reserves (not necessarily all of these, and not in that order) just as the Fed is injecting hundreds of billions of reserves into the market as the Treasury depletes its TGA account.</b></p><p><blockquote>如果您一直生活在岩石下，以下是您应该关心 SLR 决定的原因：首先，对于那些阅读我们有关该问题的入门读物的人来说，摩根大通的一些背景（具有讽刺意味的是，摩根大通是一家因美联储的决定而损失最大的银行）底线是，如果没有 SLR 救济，<b>银行可能不得不去杠杆化、筹集新资本、停止回购、出售优先股、拒绝存款并普遍减少准备金（不一定是所有这些，也不是按顺序），就像美联储正在向市场注入数千亿美元的储备随着财政部耗尽其 TGA 账户。</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>The massive expansion of the Fed’s balance that has occurred implied an equally massive growth in bank reserves held at Federal Reserve banks. <b>The expiration of the regulatory relief would add ~$2.1tn of leverage exposure across the 8 GSIBs. As well, TGA reduction and continued QE could add another ~$2.35tn of deposits to the system during 2021.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/392342c2f3e1dd008b2276172a9b3ecf\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"253\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">While the expiry of the carve-out on March 31 would not have an immediate impact on GSIBs, the continued increase in leverage assets throughout the course of the year would increase long-term debt (LTD) and preferred requirements. Here, JPM takes an optimistic view and writes that<b>\"even the “worst” case issuance scenario as very manageable, with LTD needs of $35bn for TLAC requirements and preferred needs of $15-$20bn to maintain the industry-wide SLR at 5.6%.</b></p><p><blockquote>美联储资产负债表的大幅扩张意味着联邦储备银行持有的银行存款也将大幅增长。<b>监管救济的到期将使 8 个 GSIB 增加约 2.1 万亿美元的杠杆风险。此外，TGA 的减少和持续的量化宽松可能会在 2021 年为系统增加约 2.35 万亿美元的存款。</b>虽然 3 月 31 日豁免到期不会对 GSIB 产生直接影响，但全年杠杆资产的持续增长将增加长期债务 (LTD) 和优先要求。在此，摩根大通持乐观态度并写道<b>“即使是‘最坏’的案例发行情况也是非常可控的，LTD 需要 350 亿美元来满足 TLAC 要求，而优先需要 150 亿至 200 亿美元才能将全行业 SLR 的比例维持在 5.6%。</b></blockquote></p><p>The constraint is greater at the bank entity, where the capacity to grow leverage exposure to be ~$765bn at 6.2% SLR.\"Goldman's take was more troubling: the bank estimated that under the continued QE regime, there would be a shortfall of some $2 trillion in reserve capacity, mainly in the form of deposits which the banks would be unable to accept as part of ongoing QE (much more in Goldman'sfull take of the SLR quandary).</p><p><blockquote>银行实体的限制更大，以 6.2% 的 SLR 计算，增加杠杆风险的能力约为 7,650 亿美元。”高盛的做法更令人不安：该银行估计，在持续的量化宽松制度下，将出现约 2 万亿美元的储备能力缺口，主要以银行无法接受的存款形式作为正在进行的量化宽松的一部分（高盛对 SLR 困境的全面理解要多得多）。</blockquote></p><p><b>So what happens next?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那么接下来会发生什么呢？</b></blockquote></p><p>Addressing this topic, yesterday Curvature's Scott Skyrm wrote that \"<i>the largest banks are enjoying much larger balance sheets, but there are political factors in Washington that are against an extension of the exemption.... Here are a couple of scenarios and their implications on the Repo market</i>:</p><p><blockquote>昨天Curvature的Scott Skyrm在谈到这个话题时写道：<i>最大的银行享有更大的资产负债表，但华盛顿有政治因素反对延长豁免…….以下是几个场景及其对回购市场的影响</i>:</blockquote></p><p>The exemption is extended 3 months or 6 months - No impact on the Repo market. It's already fully priced-in.The exemption is continued for reserves, but ended for Treasurys. <b>Since large banks are the largest cash providers in the Repo market, less cash is intermediated into the market and Repo rates rise. Volatility increases as Repo assets move from the largest banks to the other Repo market participants.The exemption is ended for both reserves and Treasurys. Same as above.</b>In other words, Skyrm has a relatively downbeat view, warning that \"since large banks are the largest cash providers in the Repo market, less cash is intermediated into the market and Repo rates rise.\" Additionally, volatility is likely to increase as repo assets move from the largest banks to the other Repo market participants...</p><p><blockquote>豁免延长3个月或6个月——对回购市场没有影响。它已经全价了。准备金的豁免继续，但国债的豁免结束。<b>由于大型银行是回购市场上最大的现金提供者，因此进入市场的现金减少，回购利率上升。随着回购资产从最大的银行转移到其他回购市场参与者，波动性增加。准备金和国库的豁免都结束了。同上。</b>换句话说，Skyrm持相对悲观的观点，警告称“由于大型银行是回购市场上最大的现金提供者，因此进入市场的现金减少，回购利率上升。”此外，随着回购资产从最大的银行转移到其他回购市场参与者，波动性可能会增加……</blockquote></p><p>Perhaps a bit too draconian? Well, last week, JPMorgan laid out 5 scenarios for SLR, of which two predicted the end of SLR relief on March 31, as follow:</p><p><blockquote>也许有点太严厉了？那么，上周摩根大通为SLR布局了5种情景，其中两种情景预测SLR救济将在3月31日结束，具体如下：</blockquote></p><p><u><b>3. Relief ends March 31, banks fully raise capital</b></u> <b>Impact on BanksRatesFront-End Rates</b> <u><b>4. Relief ends March 31, banks raise capital &amp; de-lever</b></u> <b>Impact on BanksRatesFront-End Rates</b>Going back to Zoltan, let's recallthat the repo gurualso cautioned that \"ending the exemption of reserves and Treasuries from the calculation of the SLR may mean that U.S. banks will turn away deposits and reserves on the margin (not Treasuries) to leave more room for market-making activities,<b>and these flows will swell further money funds’ inflows coming from TGA drawdowns.</b>\"</p><p><blockquote><u><b>3.救助3月31日结束，银行全面募资</b></u><b>对银行利率的影响前端利率</b><u><b>4.救助3月31日结束，银行增资去杠杆</b></u><b>对银行利率的影响前端利率</b>回到佐尔坦，让我们回顾一下，回购大师还警告说，“结束准备金和国债在 SLR 计算中的豁免可能意味着美国银行将拒绝保证金存款和准备金（而不是国债），以留出更多空间进行做市活动，<b>这些资金流动将进一步扩大 TGA 提款带来的货币资金流入。</b>\"</blockquote></p><p>More importantly, Zoltan does not expect broad chaos in repo or broader markets, and instead provides a more benign view on the negligible impact the SLR has had (and will be if it is eliminated), as he explained in a note from Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，佐尔坦预计回购或更广泛的市场不会出现大范围的混乱，而是对单反相机已经产生的微不足道的影响（如果被淘汰，将会产生）提供了更温和的观点，正如他在周二的一份报告中所解释的那样。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/caeeb2b1290e084832f29d61cea6a90b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"534\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">How to determine if Zoltan's benign view is correct? He concluded his note by writing that \"given that our call for a zero-to-negative FRA-OIS spread by the end of June was predicated on the end of SLR extension and an assumption that the Fed will try to fix a quantity problem with prices, not quantities, today’s adjustments mean that FRA-OIS won’t trade all the way down to zero or negative territory.\"</p><p><blockquote>如何确定佐尔坦的良性观点是否正确？他在笔记的最后写道：“鉴于我们在 6 月底之前将 FRA-OIS 利差从零变为负的看涨期权是基于 SLR 延期结束，以及美联储将试图用价格而非数量来解决数量问题的假设，今天的调整意味着 FRA-OIS 不会一路跌至零或负区域”。</blockquote></p><p>FRA-OIS from here will be a function of how tight FX swaps will trade relative to OIS, but Treasury bills trading at deeply sub-zero rates is no longer a risk...While Bills have occasionally dipped into the negative territory on occasion, so far they have avoided a fullblown plunge into NIRP, which may be just the positive sign the market is waiting for to ease the nerves associated with the sudden and largely unexpected end of the SLR exemption.</p><p><blockquote>从这里开始，FRA-OIS将取决于外汇掉期相对于OIS的交易强度，但以远低于零的利率交易的国库券不再是一种风险……虽然法案偶尔会陷入负值区域，但到目前为止，它们已经避免了NIRP的全面暴跌，这可能只是市场正在等待的积极迹象，以缓解与SLR豁免突然且基本上出乎意料的结束相关的紧张情绪。</blockquote></p><p>* *&nbsp; *</p><p><blockquote>** *</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Finally, for those curious what the immediate market impact will be, NatWest strategist Blake Gwinn writes that the Fed announcement that they’re letting regulatory exemptions for banks expire at the end of the month \"really threads the needle and \"assuages concerns about the potential long-term impact on the markets\" as<b>the SLR \"ends it but defuses a lot of the knee-jerk market reaction” by pledging to address the current design and calibration of the supplementary leverage ratio to prevent strains from developing</b>.</p><p><blockquote>最后，对于那些好奇会对市场产生什么直接影响的人来说，NatWest 策略师布莱克-格温（Blake Gwinn）写道，美联储宣布将让银行的监管豁免在本月底到期，“确实穿针引线，并 “缓解了对市场潜在长期影响的担忧”。<b>SLR“结束了它，但化解了许多下意识的市场反应”，承诺解决补充杠杆率的当前设计和校准问题，以防止应变发展</b>.</blockquote></p><p>“I was never worried about a day-one bank puke of Treasuries or drawdown in repo or anything like that on no renewal,” Gwinn said. “My concern was the longer run,” like as reserves continue to rise, would the SLR “become a nuisance and drag on Treasuries and spreads” Gwinn concludes that with the statement, the Fed is<b>\"really speaking to those fears and basically saying, ‘don’t worry, we are on it’.”</b></p><p><blockquote>“格温说：”我从来没有担心过银行会在一天之内抛售国债，或者在不续签的情况下提取回购或类似的事情。格温总结说，“我担心的是，从长远来看，”随着外汇储备的继续上升，SLR 是否会 “成为一种麻烦，拖累国债和利差”。<b>“真正面对这些恐惧，基本上是在说，‘别担心，我们会做到的’。”</b></blockquote></p><p>Well, with yields spiking to HOD in early quad-witch trading, the market sure seems quite skeptical that the Fed is on anything.</p><p><blockquote>好吧，随着收益率在早期四巫交易中飙升至 HOD，市场似乎对美联储的任何行动都相当怀疑。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed Disappoints Market, Lets SLR Relief Expire: What Happens Next<blockquote>美联储令市场失望，让 SLR 救济到期：接下来会发生什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-19 22:32</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>As washinted at, and discussed in depth here,the Fed decided - under political pressure from progressive Democrats such asElizabeth Warren and Sherrod Brown- to let the temporary Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) exemption expire as scheduled on March 31, the one year anniversary of the rule change.</p><p><blockquote>正如这里所讨论和深入讨论的那样，在伊丽莎白·沃伦和谢罗德·布朗等进步民主党人的政治压力下，美联储决定让临时补充杠杆率（SLR）豁免如期于3月31日到期，即规则变更一周年纪念日。</blockquote></p><p>The federal bank regulatory agencies today announced that the temporary change to the supplementary leverage ratio, or SLR, for depository institutions issued on May 15, 2020, will expire as scheduled on March 31, 2021.The temporary change was made to provide flexibility for depository institutions to provide credit to households and businesses in light of the COVID-19 event.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b822960da59d651f093b5113cd0c3fd0\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"319\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">This outcome is theone (again) correctly predictedby former NY Fed guru Zoltan Pozsar who following the FOMC said that \"the fact that the Fed made this adjustment practically preemptively – the o/n RRP facility is not being used at the moment, so there are no capacity constraints yet, while repo and bill yields aren’t trading negative yet –<b>suggests that the Fed is “foaming the runway” for the end of SLR exemption</b>.\"</p><p><blockquote>美联储银行监管机构今天宣布，2020年5月15日发布的存款机构补充杠杆率（SLR）临时变更将于2021年3月31日如期到期。鉴于 COVID-19 事件，做出临时改变是为了让存款机构能够灵活地向家庭和企业提供信贷。纽约联储前大师佐尔坦-波萨尔（Zoltan Pozsar）（再次）正确预测了这一结果，他在联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）之后表示，“事实上，美联储做出这一调整实际上是先发制人的--o/n RRP工具目前没有被使用，因此还没有能力限制，而回购和票据收益率还没有出现负值交易--<b>这表明美联储正在为终止 SLR 豁免“铺平道路”</b>.\"</blockquote></p><p>Knowing well this would be a very hot button issue for the market, the Fed published thefollowing statementto ease trader nerves, noting that while the SLR special treatment will expire on March 31, the Fed is \"inviting public comment on several potential SLR modifications\" and furthermore, \"<b>Board may need to address the current design and calibration of the SLR over time to prevent strains from developing that could both constrain economic growth and undermine financial stability</b>\" - in short, if yields spike, the Fed will re-introduce the SLR without delay:</p><p><blockquote>美联储深知这对市场来说将是一个非常热门的问题，因此发表了以下声明以缓解交易员的紧张情绪，指出虽然 SLR 特殊待遇将于 3 月 31 日到期，但美联储正在“邀请公众对几项潜在的 SLR 修改发表评论”，此外，“<b>随着时间的推移，董事会可能需要解决 SLR 的当前设计和校准问题，以防止出现可能制约经济增长和破坏金融稳定的压力</b>“——简而言之，如果收益率飙升，美联储将立即重新推出 SLR：</blockquote></p><p>The Federal Reserve Board on Friday announced that the temporary change to its supplementary leverage ratio, or SLR, for bank holding companies will expire as scheduled on March 31. <b>Additionally, the Board will shortly seek comment on measures to adjust the SLR. The Board will take appropriate actions to assure that any changes to the SLR do not erode the overall strength of bank capital requirements.</b>To ease strains in the Treasury market resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic and to promote lending to households and businesses, the Board temporarily modified the SLR last year to exclude U.S. Treasury securities and central bank reserves. Since that time, the Treasury market has stabilized. <b>However, because of recent growth in the supply of central bank reserves and the issuance of Treasury securities, the Board may need to address the current design and calibration of the SLR over time to prevent strains from developing that could both constrain economic growth and undermine financial stability.To ensure that the SLR—which was established in 2014 as an additional capital requirement—remains effective in an environment of higher reserves, the Board will soon be inviting public comment on several potential SLR modifications.</b>The proposal and comments will contribute to ongoing discussions with the Department of the Treasury and other regulators on future work to ensure the resiliency of the Treasury market.The Fed's soothing wods notwithstanding,<b>having been primed for a favorable outcome, the Fed's disappointing announcement was hardly the news traders were hoping for and stocks tumbled...</b></p><p><blockquote>美联储周五宣布，银行控股公司补充杠杆率（SLR）的临时变化将于3月31日如期到期。<b>此外，董事会将很快就调整SLR的措施征求意见。董事会将采取适当行动，确保SLR的任何变更不会削弱银行资本要求的整体实力。</b>为了缓解新冠肺炎疫情造成的国债市场压力，并促进对家庭和企业的贷款，董事会去年暂时修改了SLR，将美国国债和央行储备排除在外。此后，国债市场趋于稳定。<b>然而，由于最近央行储备供应和国债发行的增加，董事会可能需要随着时间的推移解决SLR的当前设计和校准问题，以防止出现可能制约经济增长和破坏金融稳定的压力。为了确保 SLR（作为额外资本要求于 2014 年设立）在储备较高的环境下仍然有效，董事会将很快就几项潜在的 SLR 修改征求公众意见。</b>该提案和意见将有助于与财政部和其他监管机构就未来确保国债市场弹性的工作进行持续讨论。尽管美联储提出了宽慰的要求，<b>在为有利的结果做好准备后，美联储令人失望的声明几乎不是交易员所希望的消息，股市暴跌……</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c341c3843a5031cd1599c2c89e198050\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"305\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Bond yields spiked...</p><p><blockquote>债券收益率飙升……</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14173c1ce587fb45efe4c30ecc1dfbab\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"284\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... while the stock of JPM, which is the most exposed bank to SLR relief (as noted yesterday in \"Facing Up To JP Morgan's Leverage Relief Threats\")...</p><p><blockquote>...而摩根大通的股票是最容易受到SLR减免的银行（正如昨天在“面临摩根大通杠杆减免威胁”中所指出的）...</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32811183fba3dbddf1c440836298c7f3\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">.... slumped.</p><p><blockquote>....崩溃了。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fba41463f15e79d2b8436cdd6a526fc\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"306\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In case you've been living under a rock, here's why you should care about the SLR decision: First, for those whomissed our primer on the issue, some background from JPM (ironically the one bank that has the most to lose from the Fed's decision) the bottom line is that without SLR relief,<b>banks may have to delever, raise new capital, halt buybacks, sell preferred stock, turn down deposits and generally push back on reserves (not necessarily all of these, and not in that order) just as the Fed is injecting hundreds of billions of reserves into the market as the Treasury depletes its TGA account.</b></p><p><blockquote>如果您一直生活在岩石下，以下是您应该关心 SLR 决定的原因：首先，对于那些阅读我们有关该问题的入门读物的人来说，摩根大通的一些背景（具有讽刺意味的是，摩根大通是一家因美联储的决定而损失最大的银行）底线是，如果没有 SLR 救济，<b>银行可能不得不去杠杆化、筹集新资本、停止回购、出售优先股、拒绝存款并普遍减少准备金（不一定是所有这些，也不是按顺序），就像美联储正在向市场注入数千亿美元的储备随着财政部耗尽其 TGA 账户。</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>The massive expansion of the Fed’s balance that has occurred implied an equally massive growth in bank reserves held at Federal Reserve banks. <b>The expiration of the regulatory relief would add ~$2.1tn of leverage exposure across the 8 GSIBs. As well, TGA reduction and continued QE could add another ~$2.35tn of deposits to the system during 2021.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/392342c2f3e1dd008b2276172a9b3ecf\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"253\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">While the expiry of the carve-out on March 31 would not have an immediate impact on GSIBs, the continued increase in leverage assets throughout the course of the year would increase long-term debt (LTD) and preferred requirements. Here, JPM takes an optimistic view and writes that<b>\"even the “worst” case issuance scenario as very manageable, with LTD needs of $35bn for TLAC requirements and preferred needs of $15-$20bn to maintain the industry-wide SLR at 5.6%.</b></p><p><blockquote>美联储资产负债表的大幅扩张意味着联邦储备银行持有的银行存款也将大幅增长。<b>监管救济的到期将使 8 个 GSIB 增加约 2.1 万亿美元的杠杆风险。此外，TGA 的减少和持续的量化宽松可能会在 2021 年为系统增加约 2.35 万亿美元的存款。</b>虽然 3 月 31 日豁免到期不会对 GSIB 产生直接影响，但全年杠杆资产的持续增长将增加长期债务 (LTD) 和优先要求。在此，摩根大通持乐观态度并写道<b>“即使是‘最坏’的案例发行情况也是非常可控的，LTD 需要 350 亿美元来满足 TLAC 要求，而优先需要 150 亿至 200 亿美元才能将全行业 SLR 的比例维持在 5.6%。</b></blockquote></p><p>The constraint is greater at the bank entity, where the capacity to grow leverage exposure to be ~$765bn at 6.2% SLR.\"Goldman's take was more troubling: the bank estimated that under the continued QE regime, there would be a shortfall of some $2 trillion in reserve capacity, mainly in the form of deposits which the banks would be unable to accept as part of ongoing QE (much more in Goldman'sfull take of the SLR quandary).</p><p><blockquote>银行实体的限制更大，以 6.2% 的 SLR 计算，增加杠杆风险的能力约为 7,650 亿美元。”高盛的做法更令人不安：该银行估计，在持续的量化宽松制度下，将出现约 2 万亿美元的储备能力缺口，主要以银行无法接受的存款形式作为正在进行的量化宽松的一部分（高盛对 SLR 困境的全面理解要多得多）。</blockquote></p><p><b>So what happens next?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那么接下来会发生什么呢？</b></blockquote></p><p>Addressing this topic, yesterday Curvature's Scott Skyrm wrote that \"<i>the largest banks are enjoying much larger balance sheets, but there are political factors in Washington that are against an extension of the exemption.... Here are a couple of scenarios and their implications on the Repo market</i>:</p><p><blockquote>昨天Curvature的Scott Skyrm在谈到这个话题时写道：<i>最大的银行享有更大的资产负债表，但华盛顿有政治因素反对延长豁免…….以下是几个场景及其对回购市场的影响</i>:</blockquote></p><p>The exemption is extended 3 months or 6 months - No impact on the Repo market. It's already fully priced-in.The exemption is continued for reserves, but ended for Treasurys. <b>Since large banks are the largest cash providers in the Repo market, less cash is intermediated into the market and Repo rates rise. Volatility increases as Repo assets move from the largest banks to the other Repo market participants.The exemption is ended for both reserves and Treasurys. Same as above.</b>In other words, Skyrm has a relatively downbeat view, warning that \"since large banks are the largest cash providers in the Repo market, less cash is intermediated into the market and Repo rates rise.\" Additionally, volatility is likely to increase as repo assets move from the largest banks to the other Repo market participants...</p><p><blockquote>豁免延长3个月或6个月——对回购市场没有影响。它已经全价了。准备金的豁免继续，但国债的豁免结束。<b>由于大型银行是回购市场上最大的现金提供者，因此进入市场的现金减少，回购利率上升。随着回购资产从最大的银行转移到其他回购市场参与者，波动性增加。准备金和国库的豁免都结束了。同上。</b>换句话说，Skyrm持相对悲观的观点，警告称“由于大型银行是回购市场上最大的现金提供者，因此进入市场的现金减少，回购利率上升。”此外，随着回购资产从最大的银行转移到其他回购市场参与者，波动性可能会增加……</blockquote></p><p>Perhaps a bit too draconian? Well, last week, JPMorgan laid out 5 scenarios for SLR, of which two predicted the end of SLR relief on March 31, as follow:</p><p><blockquote>也许有点太严厉了？那么，上周摩根大通为SLR布局了5种情景，其中两种情景预测SLR救济将在3月31日结束，具体如下：</blockquote></p><p><u><b>3. Relief ends March 31, banks fully raise capital</b></u> <b>Impact on BanksRatesFront-End Rates</b> <u><b>4. Relief ends March 31, banks raise capital &amp; de-lever</b></u> <b>Impact on BanksRatesFront-End Rates</b>Going back to Zoltan, let's recallthat the repo gurualso cautioned that \"ending the exemption of reserves and Treasuries from the calculation of the SLR may mean that U.S. banks will turn away deposits and reserves on the margin (not Treasuries) to leave more room for market-making activities,<b>and these flows will swell further money funds’ inflows coming from TGA drawdowns.</b>\"</p><p><blockquote><u><b>3.救助3月31日结束，银行全面募资</b></u><b>对银行利率的影响前端利率</b><u><b>4.救助3月31日结束，银行增资去杠杆</b></u><b>对银行利率的影响前端利率</b>回到佐尔坦，让我们回顾一下，回购大师还警告说，“结束准备金和国债在 SLR 计算中的豁免可能意味着美国银行将拒绝保证金存款和准备金（而不是国债），以留出更多空间进行做市活动，<b>这些资金流动将进一步扩大 TGA 提款带来的货币资金流入。</b>\"</blockquote></p><p>More importantly, Zoltan does not expect broad chaos in repo or broader markets, and instead provides a more benign view on the negligible impact the SLR has had (and will be if it is eliminated), as he explained in a note from Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，佐尔坦预计回购或更广泛的市场不会出现大范围的混乱，而是对单反相机已经产生的微不足道的影响（如果被淘汰，将会产生）提供了更温和的观点，正如他在周二的一份报告中所解释的那样。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/caeeb2b1290e084832f29d61cea6a90b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"534\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">How to determine if Zoltan's benign view is correct? He concluded his note by writing that \"given that our call for a zero-to-negative FRA-OIS spread by the end of June was predicated on the end of SLR extension and an assumption that the Fed will try to fix a quantity problem with prices, not quantities, today’s adjustments mean that FRA-OIS won’t trade all the way down to zero or negative territory.\"</p><p><blockquote>如何确定佐尔坦的良性观点是否正确？他在笔记的最后写道：“鉴于我们在 6 月底之前将 FRA-OIS 利差从零变为负的看涨期权是基于 SLR 延期结束，以及美联储将试图用价格而非数量来解决数量问题的假设，今天的调整意味着 FRA-OIS 不会一路跌至零或负区域”。</blockquote></p><p>FRA-OIS from here will be a function of how tight FX swaps will trade relative to OIS, but Treasury bills trading at deeply sub-zero rates is no longer a risk...While Bills have occasionally dipped into the negative territory on occasion, so far they have avoided a fullblown plunge into NIRP, which may be just the positive sign the market is waiting for to ease the nerves associated with the sudden and largely unexpected end of the SLR exemption.</p><p><blockquote>从这里开始，FRA-OIS将取决于外汇掉期相对于OIS的交易强度，但以远低于零的利率交易的国库券不再是一种风险……虽然法案偶尔会陷入负值区域，但到目前为止，它们已经避免了NIRP的全面暴跌，这可能只是市场正在等待的积极迹象，以缓解与SLR豁免突然且基本上出乎意料的结束相关的紧张情绪。</blockquote></p><p>* *&nbsp; *</p><p><blockquote>** *</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Finally, for those curious what the immediate market impact will be, NatWest strategist Blake Gwinn writes that the Fed announcement that they’re letting regulatory exemptions for banks expire at the end of the month \"really threads the needle and \"assuages concerns about the potential long-term impact on the markets\" as<b>the SLR \"ends it but defuses a lot of the knee-jerk market reaction” by pledging to address the current design and calibration of the supplementary leverage ratio to prevent strains from developing</b>.</p><p><blockquote>最后，对于那些好奇会对市场产生什么直接影响的人来说，NatWest 策略师布莱克-格温（Blake Gwinn）写道，美联储宣布将让银行的监管豁免在本月底到期，“确实穿针引线，并 “缓解了对市场潜在长期影响的担忧”。<b>SLR“结束了它，但化解了许多下意识的市场反应”，承诺解决补充杠杆率的当前设计和校准问题，以防止应变发展</b>.</blockquote></p><p>“I was never worried about a day-one bank puke of Treasuries or drawdown in repo or anything like that on no renewal,” Gwinn said. “My concern was the longer run,” like as reserves continue to rise, would the SLR “become a nuisance and drag on Treasuries and spreads” Gwinn concludes that with the statement, the Fed is<b>\"really speaking to those fears and basically saying, ‘don’t worry, we are on it’.”</b></p><p><blockquote>“格温说：”我从来没有担心过银行会在一天之内抛售国债，或者在不续签的情况下提取回购或类似的事情。格温总结说，“我担心的是，从长远来看，”随着外汇储备的继续上升，SLR 是否会 “成为一种麻烦，拖累国债和利差”。<b>“真正面对这些恐惧，基本上是在说，‘别担心，我们会做到的’。”</b></blockquote></p><p>Well, with yields spiking to HOD in early quad-witch trading, the market sure seems quite skeptical that the Fed is on anything.</p><p><blockquote>好吧，随着收益率在早期四巫交易中飙升至 HOD，市场似乎对美联储的任何行动都相当怀疑。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bopnds-tank-after-fed-lets-slr-relief-expire\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bopnds-tank-after-fed-lets-slr-relief-expire","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199154789","content_text":"As washinted at, and discussed in depth here,the Fed decided - under political pressure from progressive Democrats such asElizabeth Warren and Sherrod Brown- to let the temporary Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) exemption expire as scheduled on March 31, the one year anniversary of the rule change.The federal bank regulatory agencies today announced that the temporary change to the supplementary leverage ratio, or SLR, for depository institutions issued on May 15, 2020, will expire as scheduled on March 31, 2021.The temporary change was made to provide flexibility for depository institutions to provide credit to households and businesses in light of the COVID-19 event.This outcome is theone (again) correctly predictedby former NY Fed guru Zoltan Pozsar who following the FOMC said that \"the fact that the Fed made this adjustment practically preemptively – the o/n RRP facility is not being used at the moment, so there are no capacity constraints yet, while repo and bill yields aren’t trading negative yet –suggests that the Fed is “foaming the runway” for the end of SLR exemption.\"Knowing well this would be a very hot button issue for the market, the Fed published thefollowing statementto ease trader nerves, noting that while the SLR special treatment will expire on March 31, the Fed is \"inviting public comment on several potential SLR modifications\" and furthermore, \"Board may need to address the current design and calibration of the SLR over time to prevent strains from developing that could both constrain economic growth and undermine financial stability\" - in short, if yields spike, the Fed will re-introduce the SLR without delay:The Federal Reserve Board on Friday announced that the temporary change to its supplementary leverage ratio, or SLR, for bank holding companies will expire as scheduled on March 31. Additionally, the Board will shortly seek comment on measures to adjust the SLR. The Board will take appropriate actions to assure that any changes to the SLR do not erode the overall strength of bank capital requirements.To ease strains in the Treasury market resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic and to promote lending to households and businesses, the Board temporarily modified the SLR last year to exclude U.S. Treasury securities and central bank reserves. Since that time, the Treasury market has stabilized. However, because of recent growth in the supply of central bank reserves and the issuance of Treasury securities, the Board may need to address the current design and calibration of the SLR over time to prevent strains from developing that could both constrain economic growth and undermine financial stability.To ensure that the SLR—which was established in 2014 as an additional capital requirement—remains effective in an environment of higher reserves, the Board will soon be inviting public comment on several potential SLR modifications.The proposal and comments will contribute to ongoing discussions with the Department of the Treasury and other regulators on future work to ensure the resiliency of the Treasury market.The Fed's soothing wods notwithstanding,having been primed for a favorable outcome, the Fed's disappointing announcement was hardly the news traders were hoping for and stocks tumbled...Bond yields spiked...... while the stock of JPM, which is the most exposed bank to SLR relief (as noted yesterday in \"Facing Up To JP Morgan's Leverage Relief Threats\")....... slumped.In case you've been living under a rock, here's why you should care about the SLR decision: First, for those whomissed our primer on the issue, some background from JPM (ironically the one bank that has the most to lose from the Fed's decision) the bottom line is that without SLR relief,banks may have to delever, raise new capital, halt buybacks, sell preferred stock, turn down deposits and generally push back on reserves (not necessarily all of these, and not in that order) just as the Fed is injecting hundreds of billions of reserves into the market as the Treasury depletes its TGA account.The massive expansion of the Fed’s balance that has occurred implied an equally massive growth in bank reserves held at Federal Reserve banks. The expiration of the regulatory relief would add ~$2.1tn of leverage exposure across the 8 GSIBs. As well, TGA reduction and continued QE could add another ~$2.35tn of deposits to the system during 2021.While the expiry of the carve-out on March 31 would not have an immediate impact on GSIBs, the continued increase in leverage assets throughout the course of the year would increase long-term debt (LTD) and preferred requirements. Here, JPM takes an optimistic view and writes that\"even the “worst” case issuance scenario as very manageable, with LTD needs of $35bn for TLAC requirements and preferred needs of $15-$20bn to maintain the industry-wide SLR at 5.6%.The constraint is greater at the bank entity, where the capacity to grow leverage exposure to be ~$765bn at 6.2% SLR.\"Goldman's take was more troubling: the bank estimated that under the continued QE regime, there would be a shortfall of some $2 trillion in reserve capacity, mainly in the form of deposits which the banks would be unable to accept as part of ongoing QE (much more in Goldman'sfull take of the SLR quandary).So what happens next?Addressing this topic, yesterday Curvature's Scott Skyrm wrote that \"the largest banks are enjoying much larger balance sheets, but there are political factors in Washington that are against an extension of the exemption.... Here are a couple of scenarios and their implications on the Repo market:The exemption is extended 3 months or 6 months - No impact on the Repo market. It's already fully priced-in.The exemption is continued for reserves, but ended for Treasurys. Since large banks are the largest cash providers in the Repo market, less cash is intermediated into the market and Repo rates rise. Volatility increases as Repo assets move from the largest banks to the other Repo market participants.The exemption is ended for both reserves and Treasurys. Same as above.In other words, Skyrm has a relatively downbeat view, warning that \"since large banks are the largest cash providers in the Repo market, less cash is intermediated into the market and Repo rates rise.\" Additionally, volatility is likely to increase as repo assets move from the largest banks to the other Repo market participants...Perhaps a bit too draconian? Well, last week, JPMorgan laid out 5 scenarios for SLR, of which two predicted the end of SLR relief on March 31, as follow:3. Relief ends March 31, banks fully raise capital Impact on BanksRatesFront-End Rates 4. Relief ends March 31, banks raise capital & de-lever Impact on BanksRatesFront-End RatesGoing back to Zoltan, let's recallthat the repo gurualso cautioned that \"ending the exemption of reserves and Treasuries from the calculation of the SLR may mean that U.S. banks will turn away deposits and reserves on the margin (not Treasuries) to leave more room for market-making activities,and these flows will swell further money funds’ inflows coming from TGA drawdowns.\"More importantly, Zoltan does not expect broad chaos in repo or broader markets, and instead provides a more benign view on the negligible impact the SLR has had (and will be if it is eliminated), as he explained in a note from Tuesday.How to determine if Zoltan's benign view is correct? He concluded his note by writing that \"given that our call for a zero-to-negative FRA-OIS spread by the end of June was predicated on the end of SLR extension and an assumption that the Fed will try to fix a quantity problem with prices, not quantities, today’s adjustments mean that FRA-OIS won’t trade all the way down to zero or negative territory.\"FRA-OIS from here will be a function of how tight FX swaps will trade relative to OIS, but Treasury bills trading at deeply sub-zero rates is no longer a risk...While Bills have occasionally dipped into the negative territory on occasion, so far they have avoided a fullblown plunge into NIRP, which may be just the positive sign the market is waiting for to ease the nerves associated with the sudden and largely unexpected end of the SLR exemption.* *  *Finally, for those curious what the immediate market impact will be, NatWest strategist Blake Gwinn writes that the Fed announcement that they’re letting regulatory exemptions for banks expire at the end of the month \"really threads the needle and \"assuages concerns about the potential long-term impact on the markets\" asthe SLR \"ends it but defuses a lot of the knee-jerk market reaction” by pledging to address the current design and calibration of the supplementary leverage ratio to prevent strains from developing.“I was never worried about a day-one bank puke of Treasuries or drawdown in repo or anything like that on no renewal,” Gwinn said. “My concern was the longer run,” like as reserves continue to rise, would the SLR “become a nuisance and drag on Treasuries and spreads” Gwinn concludes that with the statement, the Fed is\"really speaking to those fears and basically saying, ‘don’t worry, we are on it’.”Well, with yields spiking to HOD in early quad-witch trading, the market sure seems quite skeptical that the Fed is on anything.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":459,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124793437,"gmtCreate":1624788976429,"gmtModify":1631884993716,"author":{"id":"3577057278686923","authorId":"3577057278686923","name":"Stockdapper","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f8b006637b4ffc3dd4d813922d34a8e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577057278686923","authorIdStr":"3577057278686923"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Prefer Ford","listText":"Prefer Ford","text":"Prefer Ford","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124793437","repostId":"1137119316","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137119316","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624754401,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1137119316?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-27 08:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Ford Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137119316","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.With Ford  launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO  will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.</li>  <li>The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.</li>  <li>NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5033fa117d7852799244b8275bc1000f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"886\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我在不同的类别中比较福特和蔚来。</li><li>此次比较旨在增进对福特和蔚来增长潜力的了解，同时突出市场地位和机遇的差异。</li><li>蔚来的增长速度比福特快得多，高估值可能是合理的。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.</p><p><blockquote>随着福特公司（F）在电动汽车市场发起重大攻势，中国电动汽车制造商蔚来（蔚来）未来将面临另一个竞争对手争夺销量。根据市场机会、规模、收入模式、增长前景和估值，哪家汽车制造商提供了最好的交易？我将在每个类别中比较福特和蔚来，并在最后给出最终结论。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ford vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>福特与蔚来：全球电动汽车市场之争正在升温</b></blockquote></p><p> Although there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing&nbsp;$30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.</p><p><blockquote>尽管福特和蔚来之间存在天壤之别，但两家公司都将在快速增长的全球电动汽车市场展开较量。福特的车队还没有以电动汽车为重点，但这种情况将会改变： 福特感觉到电动汽车竞赛正在升温，因此表示将加快其电气化计划，在 2025 年前投资 300 亿美元用于电动汽车制造能力。福特之前的资本计划要求投资 220 亿美元用于零排放汽车。福特还设定了一个雄心勃勃的销售目标：未来十年，其全球销量的 40% 将是电动汽车，皮卡车销量的 33% 将是电动汽车。目前，电动汽车销量仅占福特销量的 1%。随着福特逐步淘汰内燃机，它将在 2040 年发展成为一家全电动汽车制造商。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market opportunity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p> In 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，全球电动汽车销量为320万辆，市场份额仅为4.2%。然而，2020 年，中国购买了全球 41% 的电动汽车。去年，中国买家购买了 130 万辆电动汽车，随着北京寻求促进电动汽车的普及，销量将快速增长。电动汽车的第二大市场是欧洲，占全球电动汽车销量的42%。美国只是全球第三大插电式电动汽车市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b48c23b32134542f51227d9b1b612887\" tg-width=\"1083\" tg-height=\"863\"><span>(Source: Wikipedia)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：维基百科）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> China, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is&nbsp;on the cusp of entering the European market&nbsp;in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，中国是世界上增长最快的电动汽车市场，尽管欧洲正在迅速迎头赶上，部分原因是立法努力增加零排放乘用车的采用，以及对欧洲范围内充电站网络的大量投资。蔚来正处于进军欧洲市场的风口浪尖，希望在竞争准备就绪之前扩大其在世界第二大电动汽车市场的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> Beijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a&nbsp;twenty percent share&nbsp;of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.</p><p><blockquote>中国政府是蔚来汽车工业电气化的推动者： 中国政府希望到 2025 年，电动汽车在新车销售中所占份额达到 20%，这将推动电动汽车在中国本土市场的普及。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9871e44eaf69adb27151425887870ace\" tg-width=\"739\" tg-height=\"454\"><span>(Source:Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Turning to growth projections.</p><p><blockquote>转向增长预测。</blockquote></p><p> With more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.</p><p><blockquote>随着中国和欧洲等地政府对电动汽车制造商采取更有利的政策，这些市场将迎来世界上最快的销售增长和最高的电动汽车采用率。由于人口规模，中国不仅是最大的市场，而且预计到2030年，电动汽车销量将超过全球所有其他市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61d19dff2f34e2d8828aca854e85d84a\" tg-width=\"825\" tg-height=\"565\"><span>(Source:McKinsey)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：麦肯锡）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>由于中国拥有更大的总市场规模、更高的电动汽车采用率、更强劲的预期销售增长和更有利的监管框架，这里的赢家将是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Scale and manufacturing competence</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模和制造能力</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.</p><p><blockquote>福特拥有百年的制造经验。但到目前为止，福特的产品阵容中只有一款与蔚来相比的全电动汽车：野马 Mach-E SUV。2022 年，福特将开始销售全电动 F-150 Lightening，该车建立在福特最畅销皮卡车的成功基础上。蔚来已经拥有更强大的产品目录，包括5座ES6 SUV、5座轿跑车SUV EC6以及6座和7座全尺寸SUV ES8。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Since NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.</p><p><blockquote>由于蔚来只专注于生产电动汽车，并且占据了一个非常小且明确的利基市场，这家中国公司在电动汽车制造专业知识方面具有优势。问题是这种优势能持续多久。福特在制造汽车方面拥有丰富的经验，可以利用全球制造基地以比任何利基电动汽车制造商希望实现的速度更快地提高电动汽车产量。这使得福特不仅在美国是特斯拉（TSLA）的有力竞争对手，而且在国外也是蔚来的有力竞争对手。福特正在加速其电气化计划，它有资源和雄心在未来十年内成为电动汽车的领导者。福特提议斥资 300 亿美元用于车队电气化，这将加速其转型，并使福特成为其他电动汽车制造商的长期威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Winner here: Ford.</p><p><blockquote>这里的赢家：福特。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Differentiation and BaaS revenue model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>差异化与BaaS收入模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来都知道差异化在这个市场中的重要性，随着时间的推移，这个市场只会变得更加竞争，这就是为什么两家公司都在一个相关领域大力投资，这个领域可以打破或巩固电动汽车市场的主导地位：电池技术。</blockquote></p><p> Ford is&nbsp;forming a joint venture&nbsp;with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has&nbsp;formed its own joint venture&nbsp;to secure battery supply.</p><p><blockquote>福特正在与韩国电池技术公司 SK Innovation 成立一家合资企业，以确保牵引电池芯和阵列模块的供应。该合资企业旨在加快电池交付速度，年产量约为 60 GWh，足以满足福特到 2030 年预计年能源需求的 25%。蔚来也在投资电池技术，并组建了自己的合资企业来确保电池供应。</blockquote></p><p> The difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.</p><p><blockquote>与福特不同的是，蔚来的电池投资战略围绕着电池订阅模式，也称为 “电池即服务 ”，这为这家中国汽车制造商创造了一个强大的长期收入机会。在这种 “BaaS” 模式下，用户购买蔚来电动汽车可获得 7 万元人民币的初始折扣，折合 1.08 万美元，并可签约包月租赁 70 千瓦时的可充电电池。然后可以在蔚来的换电站更换电池，这些换电站在中国大多数大城市都有。电池订阅费用为每月980元人民币，相当于150美元。</blockquote></p><p> The BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.</p><p><blockquote>BaaS模式对汽车制造商和用户都有几个好处：由于前期折扣，从蔚来购买电动汽车变得更加实惠，订阅模式确保用户受益于电池技术的进步和随着时间的推移更好的性能。将电池成本与汽车价格脱钩，为蔚来创造了一个全新的订阅收入流。“BaaS ”订阅的收入可用于增加蔚来充电/换电站网络的密度。电池订阅模式还将客户绑定到蔚来，从而潜在地增加客户的终身价值。</blockquote></p><p> Ford and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>随着福特和蔚来增加资本配置，它们有望从电动汽车电池成本下降中受益。随着越来越多的投资流入开发更高效的电池，性能将会提高，成本将会下降，这应该会推动电动汽车的采用并使所有电动汽车制造商受益。这是因为较低的电池价格使电动汽车比内燃机乘用车更具竞争力。但由于蔚来明确围绕电池订阅构建部分商业模式，蔚来可能会比福特受益更多。</blockquote></p><p> Battery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.</p><p><blockquote>根据投资公司施罗德提供的信息，自 2014 年以来，电动汽车的电池成本已下降 70%，并且本十年还将进一步下降。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c42acb75905affe7570a2f399ea3192f\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"449\"><span>(Source: Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>“BaaS ”模式是天才之作，从长远来看，它可能会发展成为蔚来每年 5 亿美元的收入机会。尽管福特正在加大对电池技术的投资，但这一类别的赢家是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sales growth and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>销售增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.</p><p><blockquote>福特 5 月份的销量同比增长 4.1%，但电动汽车销量（包括混合动力汽车）同比激增 184%，福特 5 月份售出了创纪录的 10,364 辆电动汽车/混合动力汽车。Escape electrified 和 Explorer Hybrid 的销量分别同比增长 125% 和 132%，显示出强劲的客户吸引力。蔚来上个月交付了 6,711 辆汽车，其中包括 3,017 辆 ES6、1,412 辆 ES8 和 2,282 辆 EC6。5 月份总交付量同比增长 95.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Ford's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.</p><p><blockquote>福特的销量是蔚来汽车的54倍，这为蔚来创造了更多的销售增长和重估潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df5a0a393e44ed74241c5effcdd92350\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来之间的估值差异就像黑夜和白天之间的差异。这是因为尽管电动汽车类别实现了爆炸式增长，但福特仍被视为一家成熟的汽车制造商，预计企业销量增长将达到中低位数。福特预计到 2025 财年（基准年：2020 财年）收入将增长 33%，蔚来将增长 808%!</blockquote></p><p> Due to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>由于销售增长的这些差异，蔚来与福特完全相反，至少就估值而言是这样。这家中国电动汽车制造商预计今年的销量和交付量将增长接近 100%，由于蔚来只销售电动汽车，蔚来的市值与销量之比远高于福特。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/817605c6b1e82c03d0473ea570d32b8f\" tg-width=\"506\" tg-height=\"406\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO has larger risks...</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来有更大的风险……</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来是风险更大的企业，但也是最有希望的企业。政府政策有利于蔚来等电动汽车制造商。与福特相比，蔚来的全球总销售额增长潜力更大，因为它的营收基础较小。但也有一些事情对蔚来不利。例如，与可以依赖全球服务和分销网络的福特相比，由于生产缺陷导致的召回对于蔚来来说将是一个更大的挑战。蔚来的估值也并非没有风险，因为生产受挫导致销售增长意外放缓，将对财务状况造成更大影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final verdict</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最终判决</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来绝对是更 “性感 ”的汽车制造商。在中国和欧洲的强劲采用率和销售增长支持了蔚来。其超级智能BaaS模型将车辆购买价格与电池成本脱钩，堪称天才。你为这种增长付出了高昂的代价，但蔚来的市场机会是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> Ford’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.</p><p><blockquote>福特的电动汽车销量正在蓬勃发展，随着该汽车制造商车队电气化，电动汽车销量的比例也将不断增加。福特在电动汽车市场潜力巨大，但由于电动汽车销量占总销量的比例仍然相对较低，福特需要很长时间才能完成转型。</blockquote></p><p> If you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.</p><p><blockquote>如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力，请购买蔚来。如果你相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力，又不喜欢太大的风险，那就买福特吧。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ford Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFord Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-27 08:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.</li>  <li>The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.</li>  <li>NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5033fa117d7852799244b8275bc1000f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"886\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我在不同的类别中比较福特和蔚来。</li><li>此次比较旨在增进对福特和蔚来增长潜力的了解，同时突出市场地位和机遇的差异。</li><li>蔚来的增长速度比福特快得多，高估值可能是合理的。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.</p><p><blockquote>随着福特公司（F）在电动汽车市场发起重大攻势，中国电动汽车制造商蔚来（蔚来）未来将面临另一个竞争对手争夺销量。根据市场机会、规模、收入模式、增长前景和估值，哪家汽车制造商提供了最好的交易？我将在每个类别中比较福特和蔚来，并在最后给出最终结论。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ford vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>福特与蔚来：全球电动汽车市场之争正在升温</b></blockquote></p><p> Although there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing&nbsp;$30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.</p><p><blockquote>尽管福特和蔚来之间存在天壤之别，但两家公司都将在快速增长的全球电动汽车市场展开较量。福特的车队还没有以电动汽车为重点，但这种情况将会改变： 福特感觉到电动汽车竞赛正在升温，因此表示将加快其电气化计划，在 2025 年前投资 300 亿美元用于电动汽车制造能力。福特之前的资本计划要求投资 220 亿美元用于零排放汽车。福特还设定了一个雄心勃勃的销售目标：未来十年，其全球销量的 40% 将是电动汽车，皮卡车销量的 33% 将是电动汽车。目前，电动汽车销量仅占福特销量的 1%。随着福特逐步淘汰内燃机，它将在 2040 年发展成为一家全电动汽车制造商。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market opportunity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p> In 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，全球电动汽车销量为320万辆，市场份额仅为4.2%。然而，2020 年，中国购买了全球 41% 的电动汽车。去年，中国买家购买了 130 万辆电动汽车，随着北京寻求促进电动汽车的普及，销量将快速增长。电动汽车的第二大市场是欧洲，占全球电动汽车销量的42%。美国只是全球第三大插电式电动汽车市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b48c23b32134542f51227d9b1b612887\" tg-width=\"1083\" tg-height=\"863\"><span>(Source: Wikipedia)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：维基百科）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> China, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is&nbsp;on the cusp of entering the European market&nbsp;in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，中国是世界上增长最快的电动汽车市场，尽管欧洲正在迅速迎头赶上，部分原因是立法努力增加零排放乘用车的采用，以及对欧洲范围内充电站网络的大量投资。蔚来正处于进军欧洲市场的风口浪尖，希望在竞争准备就绪之前扩大其在世界第二大电动汽车市场的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> Beijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a&nbsp;twenty percent share&nbsp;of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.</p><p><blockquote>中国政府是蔚来汽车工业电气化的推动者： 中国政府希望到 2025 年，电动汽车在新车销售中所占份额达到 20%，这将推动电动汽车在中国本土市场的普及。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9871e44eaf69adb27151425887870ace\" tg-width=\"739\" tg-height=\"454\"><span>(Source:Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Turning to growth projections.</p><p><blockquote>转向增长预测。</blockquote></p><p> With more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.</p><p><blockquote>随着中国和欧洲等地政府对电动汽车制造商采取更有利的政策，这些市场将迎来世界上最快的销售增长和最高的电动汽车采用率。由于人口规模，中国不仅是最大的市场，而且预计到2030年，电动汽车销量将超过全球所有其他市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61d19dff2f34e2d8828aca854e85d84a\" tg-width=\"825\" tg-height=\"565\"><span>(Source:McKinsey)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：麦肯锡）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>由于中国拥有更大的总市场规模、更高的电动汽车采用率、更强劲的预期销售增长和更有利的监管框架，这里的赢家将是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Scale and manufacturing competence</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模和制造能力</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.</p><p><blockquote>福特拥有百年的制造经验。但到目前为止，福特的产品阵容中只有一款与蔚来相比的全电动汽车：野马 Mach-E SUV。2022 年，福特将开始销售全电动 F-150 Lightening，该车建立在福特最畅销皮卡车的成功基础上。蔚来已经拥有更强大的产品目录，包括5座ES6 SUV、5座轿跑车SUV EC6以及6座和7座全尺寸SUV ES8。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Since NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.</p><p><blockquote>由于蔚来只专注于生产电动汽车，并且占据了一个非常小且明确的利基市场，这家中国公司在电动汽车制造专业知识方面具有优势。问题是这种优势能持续多久。福特在制造汽车方面拥有丰富的经验，可以利用全球制造基地以比任何利基电动汽车制造商希望实现的速度更快地提高电动汽车产量。这使得福特不仅在美国是特斯拉（TSLA）的有力竞争对手，而且在国外也是蔚来的有力竞争对手。福特正在加速其电气化计划，它有资源和雄心在未来十年内成为电动汽车的领导者。福特提议斥资 300 亿美元用于车队电气化，这将加速其转型，并使福特成为其他电动汽车制造商的长期威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Winner here: Ford.</p><p><blockquote>这里的赢家：福特。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Differentiation and BaaS revenue model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>差异化与BaaS收入模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来都知道差异化在这个市场中的重要性，随着时间的推移，这个市场只会变得更加竞争，这就是为什么两家公司都在一个相关领域大力投资，这个领域可以打破或巩固电动汽车市场的主导地位：电池技术。</blockquote></p><p> Ford is&nbsp;forming a joint venture&nbsp;with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has&nbsp;formed its own joint venture&nbsp;to secure battery supply.</p><p><blockquote>福特正在与韩国电池技术公司 SK Innovation 成立一家合资企业，以确保牵引电池芯和阵列模块的供应。该合资企业旨在加快电池交付速度，年产量约为 60 GWh，足以满足福特到 2030 年预计年能源需求的 25%。蔚来也在投资电池技术，并组建了自己的合资企业来确保电池供应。</blockquote></p><p> The difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.</p><p><blockquote>与福特不同的是，蔚来的电池投资战略围绕着电池订阅模式，也称为 “电池即服务 ”，这为这家中国汽车制造商创造了一个强大的长期收入机会。在这种 “BaaS” 模式下，用户购买蔚来电动汽车可获得 7 万元人民币的初始折扣，折合 1.08 万美元，并可签约包月租赁 70 千瓦时的可充电电池。然后可以在蔚来的换电站更换电池，这些换电站在中国大多数大城市都有。电池订阅费用为每月980元人民币，相当于150美元。</blockquote></p><p> The BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.</p><p><blockquote>BaaS模式对汽车制造商和用户都有几个好处：由于前期折扣，从蔚来购买电动汽车变得更加实惠，订阅模式确保用户受益于电池技术的进步和随着时间的推移更好的性能。将电池成本与汽车价格脱钩，为蔚来创造了一个全新的订阅收入流。“BaaS ”订阅的收入可用于增加蔚来充电/换电站网络的密度。电池订阅模式还将客户绑定到蔚来，从而潜在地增加客户的终身价值。</blockquote></p><p> Ford and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>随着福特和蔚来增加资本配置，它们有望从电动汽车电池成本下降中受益。随着越来越多的投资流入开发更高效的电池，性能将会提高，成本将会下降，这应该会推动电动汽车的采用并使所有电动汽车制造商受益。这是因为较低的电池价格使电动汽车比内燃机乘用车更具竞争力。但由于蔚来明确围绕电池订阅构建部分商业模式，蔚来可能会比福特受益更多。</blockquote></p><p> Battery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.</p><p><blockquote>根据投资公司施罗德提供的信息，自 2014 年以来，电动汽车的电池成本已下降 70%，并且本十年还将进一步下降。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c42acb75905affe7570a2f399ea3192f\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"449\"><span>(Source: Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>“BaaS ”模式是天才之作，从长远来看，它可能会发展成为蔚来每年 5 亿美元的收入机会。尽管福特正在加大对电池技术的投资，但这一类别的赢家是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sales growth and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>销售增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.</p><p><blockquote>福特 5 月份的销量同比增长 4.1%，但电动汽车销量（包括混合动力汽车）同比激增 184%，福特 5 月份售出了创纪录的 10,364 辆电动汽车/混合动力汽车。Escape electrified 和 Explorer Hybrid 的销量分别同比增长 125% 和 132%，显示出强劲的客户吸引力。蔚来上个月交付了 6,711 辆汽车，其中包括 3,017 辆 ES6、1,412 辆 ES8 和 2,282 辆 EC6。5 月份总交付量同比增长 95.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Ford's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.</p><p><blockquote>福特的销量是蔚来汽车的54倍，这为蔚来创造了更多的销售增长和重估潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df5a0a393e44ed74241c5effcdd92350\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来之间的估值差异就像黑夜和白天之间的差异。这是因为尽管电动汽车类别实现了爆炸式增长，但福特仍被视为一家成熟的汽车制造商，预计企业销量增长将达到中低位数。福特预计到 2025 财年（基准年：2020 财年）收入将增长 33%，蔚来将增长 808%!</blockquote></p><p> Due to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>由于销售增长的这些差异，蔚来与福特完全相反，至少就估值而言是这样。这家中国电动汽车制造商预计今年的销量和交付量将增长接近 100%，由于蔚来只销售电动汽车，蔚来的市值与销量之比远高于福特。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/817605c6b1e82c03d0473ea570d32b8f\" tg-width=\"506\" tg-height=\"406\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO has larger risks...</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来有更大的风险……</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来是风险更大的企业，但也是最有希望的企业。政府政策有利于蔚来等电动汽车制造商。与福特相比，蔚来的全球总销售额增长潜力更大，因为它的营收基础较小。但也有一些事情对蔚来不利。例如，与可以依赖全球服务和分销网络的福特相比，由于生产缺陷导致的召回对于蔚来来说将是一个更大的挑战。蔚来的估值也并非没有风险，因为生产受挫导致销售增长意外放缓，将对财务状况造成更大影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final verdict</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最终判决</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来绝对是更 “性感 ”的汽车制造商。在中国和欧洲的强劲采用率和销售增长支持了蔚来。其超级智能BaaS模型将车辆购买价格与电池成本脱钩，堪称天才。你为这种增长付出了高昂的代价，但蔚来的市场机会是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> Ford’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.</p><p><blockquote>福特的电动汽车销量正在蓬勃发展，随着该汽车制造商车队电气化，电动汽车销量的比例也将不断增加。福特在电动汽车市场潜力巨大，但由于电动汽车销量占总销量的比例仍然相对较低，福特需要很长时间才能完成转型。</blockquote></p><p> If you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.</p><p><blockquote>如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力，请购买蔚来。如果你相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力，又不喜欢太大的风险，那就买福特吧。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436600-ford-or-nio-the-final-verdict\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"F":"福特汽车","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436600-ford-or-nio-the-final-verdict","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137119316","content_text":"Summary\n\nI am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.\nThe comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.\nNIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.\n\npeterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images\nWith Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.\nFord vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up\nAlthough there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing $30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.\nMarket opportunity\nIn 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.\n(Source: Wikipedia)\nChina, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is on the cusp of entering the European market in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.\nBeijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a twenty percent share of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.\n(Source:Schroders)\nTurning to growth projections.\nWith more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.\n(Source:McKinsey)\nSince China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.\nScale and manufacturing competence\nFord has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.\nSince NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.\nWinner here: Ford.\nDifferentiation and BaaS revenue model\nBoth Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.\nFord is forming a joint venture with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has formed its own joint venture to secure battery supply.\nThe difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.\nThe BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.\nFord and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.\nBattery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.\n(Source: Schroders)\nThe “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.\nSales growth and valuation\nFord’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.\nFord's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.\nData by YCharts\nThe difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!\nDue to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.\n(Source: Author)\nNIO has larger risks...\nNIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.\nFinal verdict\nNIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.\nFord’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.\nIf you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. 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