37df2d81的个人主页 - 老虎社区

37df2d81

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2021-06-30

ooo

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2021-06-23

agree!

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2021-06-21

ooo

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2021-06-21

ooo

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2021-06-16

[Cry]

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2021-06-15

[Thinking] hmmm

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2021-06-14

nice!

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2021-06-14

ooo

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2021-06-13

[Great]

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2021-06-13

ooo

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2021-06-11

yas

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2021-06-11

[Cool] [Miser]

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2021-06-10

perhaps

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2021-06-09

[Cool]

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2021-06-07

oo

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2021-06-05

to the moon!!

Can NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股票能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是一个“何时”而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote>

2021-06-03

yessss

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2021-06-02

[Sly]

Where Will NIO Stock Be In 5 Years?<blockquote>5年后蔚来股票会在哪里？</blockquote>

2021-06-02

beware

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2021-05-31

oh snap

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the moon!!","listText":"to the moon!!","text":"to the moon!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/112497011","repostId":"1148130971","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148130971","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622866524,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1148130971?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-05 12:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股票能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是一个“何时”而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148130971","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fas","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.</li>  <li>The company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.</li>  <li>We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b31b2f189fa181e941126674e0b4c0b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>蔚来汽车的股价在过去一年中飙升了 816% 以上，在 3 月初成长型股票抛售之前，于 2 月初达到近 62 美元的峰值。</li><li>公司的创新方法和海外扩张战略，加上全球电气化和自动化市场情绪不断增长，预计将提升公司估值。</li><li>我们相信，随着自动驾驶成为现实，全球电动汽车销量持续增长，蔚来汽车的股价到 2025 年将飙升至 160 美元以上。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Drew Angerer/Getty Images 新闻来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Despite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a&nbsp;price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).</p><p><blockquote>尽管蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：NIO）是一个中国本土电动汽车（“EV”）品牌，最近才开始向欧洲进行海外扩张，但近年来，它已经在电动汽车领域的狂热投资者中获得了极大的国际关注。自蔚来在 2018 年年中首次交付以来，只有短短三年时间，但许多人已经在猜测其股价能否达到与行业领导者特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）类似的高度。尽管考虑到特斯拉目前的交易价格超过每股 600 美元，市值超过 6000 亿美元，这有点牵强，但我们确实相信蔚来在 2025 年之前有潜力突破每股 100 美元。就连华尔街分析师也对该公司的未来保持乐观，他们将目标价定为接近 60 美元，根据最新交易股价 42.34 美元（6 月 1 日）计算，该公司的上涨潜力超过 35%。</blockquote></p><p> Founded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来成立于2014年，迄今已在华销售和交付超过10万辆汽车。该公司拥有五款零排放、全电池供电的车型，从跑车到豪华轿车和全尺寸 SUV。除了汽车之外，蔚来还因其在创新技术方面取得的重大进展而闻名，包括最先进的电池解决方案、人工智能和自动驾驶。该公司最近还将其全球扩张计划变为现实，第一家海外蔚来商店将于2021年第三季度在挪威奥斯陆开业。我们认为，股价达到 100 美元不再是 “是否 ”的问题，而是 “何时 ”的问题。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Trailblazer in Innovative Technology</b></p><p><blockquote><b>创新技术的开拓者</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16d9fd877602d5604bc3a69593badfdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\"><span>Source:ir.nio.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ir.nio.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the&nbsp;181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles&nbsp;currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are&nbsp;more than 226 battery swapping stations&nbsp;across China, with more on the way following a recent&nbsp;strategic partnership agreement&nbsp;between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来一直表现出令人不安的创新者的特征。该品牌因其在电池更换技术 “Power Swap ”方面的突破而广为人知，该技术为蔚来车主提供了一种快速便捷的解决方案，以解决电动汽车通常行驶里程有限的问题。类似于加油站，Power Swap是一种电池交换站，可以在三分钟内将没电的电池换成充满电的电池；充满电的电池可使蔚来汽车行驶435英里，是目前市场上电动汽车181英里平均行驶里程的两倍多。蔚来车主可选择订阅「电池即服务」（「BaaS」）套餐，这是一项按月订阅服务，可根据个人需求为蔚来车主提供灵活的电池升级选择。该公司目前提供标准的 75 kWh 电池，充满电后可行驶 310 英里；以及增强型 100 kWh 电池，充满电后可行驶 435 英里；在BaaS下，两者都可供蔚来所有者按月选择。迄今为止，全国已有超过226个换电站，随着蔚来和中石化最近签署战略合作伙伴协议，更多的换电站正在建设中。蔚来的汽车还兼容本地竞争对手小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）在中国 164 个城市的 1140 个汽车充电站，这进一步增强了其为蔚来车主提供的现有充电基础设施网络。</blockquote></p><p> In addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of&nbsp;EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s&nbsp;NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.</p><p><blockquote>除了长期维持蔚来电动汽车所需的发达基础设施网络外，该公司还一直在努力完善其自动驾驶和人工智能技术，以便在更广泛的电动汽车和科技领域保持竞争力。蔚来自2016年以来一直在对其自动驾驶系统进行测试，2018年在北京公共道路上进行了首次测试。该公司对客运未来的承诺也体现在他们开发的 EVE 上，这是该品牌的自动驾驶概念车，由蔚来的 NOMI AI（全球首个车载人工智能）提供豪华、舒适和安全的体验。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> To further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently&nbsp;partnered with Mobileye&nbsp;– an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.</p><p><blockquote>为了进一步推进其在自动驾驶技术方面的进展，蔚来最近与英特尔旗下（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）公司 Mobileye 合作，开发不需要人工交互的驾驶自动化（即 “4 级 ”自动驾驶）并将其商业化。他们的合作有望加速蔚来推出 “自动驾驶即服务 ”（ADaaS）套餐，该套餐是其自动驾驶技术 “蔚来自动驾驶 ”（NAD）的月度订阅。然而，与特斯拉的 “全自动驾驶 ”套件类似，预计将于 2022 年推出的 NAD 技术尚未使蔚来汽车能够在没有人工干预的情况下驾驶，但它确实将蔚来推向了与行业领导者特斯拉不相上下的位置。蔚来用户可以选择订阅ADaaS，每月订阅费为人民币680元。目前上路的蔚来汽车超过 102,000 辆，新的订阅套餐预计将带来 8.4 亿元人民币（1.32 亿美元）的增量年销售额；假设大多数现有蔚来车主都注册了这项服务，那么在这项服务推出时，额外的收入来源估计约为 100 亿元人民币（16 亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> NIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an&nbsp;estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).</p><p><blockquote>蔚来在自动驾驶技术方面的持续发展有望在不久的将来使公司及其股东受益匪浅。到2025年，全球自动驾驶汽车市场将成为增长最快、需求量最大的细分市场之一，估计价值达1.6万亿美元。如果占据该市场 6% 的份额，蔚来现有 670 亿美元的市值将至少增加 1000 亿美元，使其每股价值超过 100 美元。考虑到蔚来是目前极少数在自动驾驶领域取得切实成果的纯电动汽车制造商之一，并且正在积极增长海外销量，我们有信心该公司有能力占领上述6%以上的市场份额，并轻松实现到2025年每股价格超过100美元。结合全球消费者偏好向电气化和自动化的转变，我们预计到 2025 财年汽车销量将达到约 300,000 辆，总收入将达到约 1,400 亿元人民币（220 亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6c800a04e6df92802f6893d214eecdd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"213\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部预测（NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Global Expansion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>全球扩张</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537449f8f7ee9c736b48c1776cbb7259\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\"><span>Source: ir.nio.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ir.nio.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Another catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first&nbsp;overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway&nbsp;in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the&nbsp;ES8, which currently retails at a&nbsp;starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the&nbsp;ET7, to follow in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>推动蔚来股价突破 100 美元的另一个催化剂是他们正在进行的海外扩张努力。蔚来一直透露其全球扩张的意图，尤其是在美国和欧洲，作为其成为行业领导者计划的一部分。蔚来将于9月在挪威奥斯陆开设其首个海外销售和服务中心。2022 年，该品牌在挪威的足迹将进一步扩大，蔚来将在卑尔根、斯塔万格、特隆赫姆和克里斯蒂安桑开设四家门店。除了直销和服务中心外，蔚来还将为欧洲推出完整的充电地图，首先是挪威的四个蔚来换电站，为蔚来的新车主提供该品牌赖以取得成功的便利和续航里程。蔚来的旗舰 SUV ES8 目前的起售价约为 6.7 万美元，将是首款引入欧洲市场的车型，随后该品牌最新的全尺寸轿车 ET7 将于 2022 年推出。</blockquote></p><p> With a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来在中国豪华电动汽车市场拥有良好的销售记录，其规格可与全球知名的特斯拉相媲美，因此没有理由不在海外取得成功。如前所述，蔚来车辆充满电后的续航里程可达 435 英里，对于那些正在寻找可靠伴侣陪伴他们进行日常通勤和长途旅行的欧美潜在车主来说，这是一个理想的选择。蔚来的外观和内饰设计也是现代、豪华的，可与欧洲和北美人口的偏好相媲美。结合多样化的产品线和价格范围，蔚来有能力满足全球范围内对电动汽车日益增长的需求。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO’s Historical Performance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来的历史表现</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Just a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a&nbsp;capital injection of RMB 7 billion&nbsp;(approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its&nbsp;IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.</p><p><blockquote>就在一年多前，尽管汽车销售仍在继续，但由于流动性问题，蔚来的股价还是创下了不到 2 美元的历史新低。2020 年年中，中国合肥市政府出手相救，注资 70 亿元人民币（约合 10 亿美元）。该安排导致“蔚来中国”成立，作为持有蔚来所有核心业务和资产的运营实体；蔚来目前持有蔚来中国 90.36% 的股权，“合肥战略投资者”财团持有剩余 9.64% 的股权。这种合作关系成为公司的生命线；额外的资本为公司的运营和汽车销售带来了显著改善，这反映在公司强劲的财务业绩和 2020 年夏季股价的上升趋势上。到 2020 年第二季度末，蔚来的股价平均反弹了近 20%，总收入环比增长了 171%。该公司股价在 2020 年第三季度上涨了两倍多，平均达到 15.40 美元，并继续攀升至第四季度的平均水平 38.70 美元。截至 2021 年 3 月 31 日的最新季度末，蔚来的平均股价为 50.97 美元，2 月份达到近 62 美元的峰值，是其 2018 年 IPO 价格的 10 倍多。如今，该公司的市值超过 670 亿美元，超过了在纽约证券交易所首次亮相时的 10 亿美元市值。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75a1d7edb18c1762028ba54f617e1982\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\"><span>Source: Author, with data from ir.nio.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自ir.nio.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> NIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the&nbsp;growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the&nbsp;recently renewed manufacturing agreement&nbsp;with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.</p><p><blockquote>自今年早些时候股价在 2 月底成长型股票抛售之前达到顶峰以来，蔚来的基本面也一直在稳步改善。2021年的交付量继续呈指数级加速，第一季度交付量超过20,000辆，占2020年总交付量的近50%。该公司继续展现出光明的前景，4 月份交付了超过 7,100 辆汽车，同比增长超过 125%。蔚来在2021年第一季度还保持了经营活动的正现金流，这得益于更高的交付量和有效的成本管理措施，使其毛利率提高到19.5%，与特斯拉等行业领导者相当第一季度毛利率为21%。如上所述，我们预计到 2025 财年汽车销量将接近 300,000 辆，相当于总收入约为 1,400 亿元人民币（220 亿美元）（每股 18.60 美元）。近期与合营企业「江淮汽车集团」（「江淮汽车集团」）重续的制造协议进一步证实了我们对2025财年的整车销售预测，该协议将目前的年产能由100,000辆增加至240,000辆；目前正在合肥兴建的「NeoPark」预计年产能将增加100万台，进一步支持我们对蔚来继续致力于发展业务的积极前景。考虑到行业同行特斯拉目前的市盈率为 16.43 倍，年收入约为 420 亿美元（第一季度收入年化为 103.89 亿美元），同样的比例应用于蔚来预测的 2025 财年总收入，预计市盈率将达到 8.7 倍，股价将超过 160 美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO vs. LI and XPEV</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来与李和 XPEV</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af8fa939f92be448d1f427a6ac4bfb25\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\"><span>Source: Finviz</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Finviz</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>我们还将蔚来目前的市盈率与国内同行进行了比较，以确定蔚来股价超过 100 美元的时间表。蔚来目前的市盈率约为14.88倍，而国内行业同行理想汽车（纳斯达克股票代码：LI）和XPEV目前的市盈率分别为14.46倍和21.31倍。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Considering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到蔚来的技术、收入、全球足迹和现金流都强于李和XPEV，前者的交易倍数应该远高于后两者。即使蔚来的市盈率达到 18.1 倍（XPEV 的中点），也将推动该公司目前的股价升至 51.50 美元，根据最新交易股价 42.34 美元（6 月 1 日）计算，这意味着 22% 的上涨潜力。根据我们对蔚来 2025 财年收入的预测为 1400 亿元人民币（220 亿美元），即每股 18.60 美元，即使是 18.1 倍的一半也足以让蔚来的股价在 2025 年突破 160 美元；我们相信，蔚来的交易倍数是可以实现的，因为运营现金和届时实现的技术进步将使他们在电动汽车行业走上持续长期增长的轨道，预计这种增长将持续到 2030 年及以后品牌的 4 级自动驾驶技术开发完成并商业化。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Risks and Challenges</b></p><p><blockquote><b>业务风险与挑战</b></blockquote></p><p> As mentioned in one of my&nbsp;previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s&nbsp;denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.</p><p><blockquote>正如我在之前一篇关于蔚来的文章中提到的，《外国公司问责法》（“Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act”）仍然是公司股价面临的最重大威胁之一。目前，中国的公共会计师事务所不符合SEC要求的PCAOB检查规则，2020年12月HFCA法案的颁布要求这些公共会计师事务所在颁布之日起三年内遵守PCAOB检查要求；否则，上述公司审计的所有上市公司都将面临退市风险。蔚来目前正在接受普华永道中天会计师事务所（PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP）的审计，该事务所已被列入 PCAOB 的拒绝准入名单。如果中国当局和 PCAOB 不能尽快就进行检查达成协议，从纽约证券交易所退市的潜在威胁可能会对投资者起到威慑作用，并最终导致蔚来股价长期下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Another imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来业务面临的另一个迫在眉睫的挑战是全球芯片供应持续短缺。随着汽车行业越来越依赖芯片来管理车辆的各项功能，汽车制造商的需求和芯片制造商的供应之间的差距正在扩大。蔚来也不例外，受到持续芯片供应危机的影响——2021年3月，蔚来停止了江淮蔚来制造工厂的生产活动五个工作日，以调整生产水平。然而，该公司继续有效地应对这种情况，正如他们逐月增加的交付数量所证明的那样；在蔚来最新发布的 4 月份交付更新新闻稿中，该公司继续满足市场需求，交付了 7100 多辆汽车，同比增长 125%。</blockquote></p><p> Competition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.</p><p><blockquote>近年来，电动汽车领域的竞争也愈演愈烈。由于对气候变化的担忧日益加剧，加上传统汽油动力汽车和电动汽车之间的价格平价，消费者对电动汽车的态度在过去十年中发生了巨大变化。随着第三方原始设备制造商更容易获得汽车电池解决方案，新兴电动汽车制造商的准入门槛也显着降低；新进入者现在更热衷于参与不断增长的电动汽车行业的盈利机会，因为初始投资变得比 2003 年特斯拉更加合理，当时电动汽车对许多人来说仍然只是一个概念。除了新进入者之外，福特（纽约证券交易所股票代码：F）等传统汽油燃料汽车制造商也开始将全电池驱动汽车纳入其车队，以满足不断变化的消费者需求并在汽车行业保持竞争力。然而，我们相信蔚来拥有在新的竞争格局中长期取得成功所需的品牌、客户体验、生产战略、人才和商业模式（在此进一步分析）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来已经在中国国内市场建立了强大的品牌形象，中国国内市场是目前增长最快的电动汽车市场之一，2020年占全球电动汽车销量的40%以上。结合他们在生产优质电动汽车、建设创新充电基础设施、在自动驾驶技术开发方面取得突破性进展以及执行海外扩张战略方面的成熟能力，蔚来正在有效地缩小他们与特斯拉在全球范围内电动汽车领域的差距。我们相信，由于汽车行业对电气化和自动化的需求不断增长，未来五年将是这家电动汽车和科技公司的转型时代，而蔚来已经证明在这方面表现出色。其持续成就的价值将很快反映在其股价上，对于那些希望从即将到来的绿色转型和自动化时代中获利的人来说，它们是一个值得选择的股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股票能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是一个“何时”而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股票能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是一个“何时”而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-05 12:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.</li>  <li>The company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.</li>  <li>We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b31b2f189fa181e941126674e0b4c0b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>蔚来汽车的股价在过去一年中飙升了 816% 以上，在 3 月初成长型股票抛售之前，于 2 月初达到近 62 美元的峰值。</li><li>公司的创新方法和海外扩张战略，加上全球电气化和自动化市场情绪不断增长，预计将提升公司估值。</li><li>我们相信，随着自动驾驶成为现实，全球电动汽车销量持续增长，蔚来汽车的股价到 2025 年将飙升至 160 美元以上。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Drew Angerer/Getty Images 新闻来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Despite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a&nbsp;price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).</p><p><blockquote>尽管蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：NIO）是一个中国本土电动汽车（“EV”）品牌，最近才开始向欧洲进行海外扩张，但近年来，它已经在电动汽车领域的狂热投资者中获得了极大的国际关注。自蔚来在 2018 年年中首次交付以来，只有短短三年时间，但许多人已经在猜测其股价能否达到与行业领导者特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）类似的高度。尽管考虑到特斯拉目前的交易价格超过每股 600 美元，市值超过 6000 亿美元，这有点牵强，但我们确实相信蔚来在 2025 年之前有潜力突破每股 100 美元。就连华尔街分析师也对该公司的未来保持乐观，他们将目标价定为接近 60 美元，根据最新交易股价 42.34 美元（6 月 1 日）计算，该公司的上涨潜力超过 35%。</blockquote></p><p> Founded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来成立于2014年，迄今已在华销售和交付超过10万辆汽车。该公司拥有五款零排放、全电池供电的车型，从跑车到豪华轿车和全尺寸 SUV。除了汽车之外，蔚来还因其在创新技术方面取得的重大进展而闻名，包括最先进的电池解决方案、人工智能和自动驾驶。该公司最近还将其全球扩张计划变为现实，第一家海外蔚来商店将于2021年第三季度在挪威奥斯陆开业。我们认为，股价达到 100 美元不再是 “是否 ”的问题，而是 “何时 ”的问题。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Trailblazer in Innovative Technology</b></p><p><blockquote><b>创新技术的开拓者</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16d9fd877602d5604bc3a69593badfdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\"><span>Source:ir.nio.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ir.nio.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the&nbsp;181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles&nbsp;currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are&nbsp;more than 226 battery swapping stations&nbsp;across China, with more on the way following a recent&nbsp;strategic partnership agreement&nbsp;between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来一直表现出令人不安的创新者的特征。该品牌因其在电池更换技术 “Power Swap ”方面的突破而广为人知，该技术为蔚来车主提供了一种快速便捷的解决方案，以解决电动汽车通常行驶里程有限的问题。类似于加油站，Power Swap是一种电池交换站，可以在三分钟内将没电的电池换成充满电的电池；充满电的电池可使蔚来汽车行驶435英里，是目前市场上电动汽车181英里平均行驶里程的两倍多。蔚来车主可选择订阅「电池即服务」（「BaaS」）套餐，这是一项按月订阅服务，可根据个人需求为蔚来车主提供灵活的电池升级选择。该公司目前提供标准的 75 kWh 电池，充满电后可行驶 310 英里；以及增强型 100 kWh 电池，充满电后可行驶 435 英里；在BaaS下，两者都可供蔚来所有者按月选择。迄今为止，全国已有超过226个换电站，随着蔚来和中石化最近签署战略合作伙伴协议，更多的换电站正在建设中。蔚来的汽车还兼容本地竞争对手小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）在中国 164 个城市的 1140 个汽车充电站，这进一步增强了其为蔚来车主提供的现有充电基础设施网络。</blockquote></p><p> In addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of&nbsp;EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s&nbsp;NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.</p><p><blockquote>除了长期维持蔚来电动汽车所需的发达基础设施网络外，该公司还一直在努力完善其自动驾驶和人工智能技术，以便在更广泛的电动汽车和科技领域保持竞争力。蔚来自2016年以来一直在对其自动驾驶系统进行测试，2018年在北京公共道路上进行了首次测试。该公司对客运未来的承诺也体现在他们开发的 EVE 上，这是该品牌的自动驾驶概念车，由蔚来的 NOMI AI（全球首个车载人工智能）提供豪华、舒适和安全的体验。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> To further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently&nbsp;partnered with Mobileye&nbsp;– an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.</p><p><blockquote>为了进一步推进其在自动驾驶技术方面的进展，蔚来最近与英特尔旗下（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）公司 Mobileye 合作，开发不需要人工交互的驾驶自动化（即 “4 级 ”自动驾驶）并将其商业化。他们的合作有望加速蔚来推出 “自动驾驶即服务 ”（ADaaS）套餐，该套餐是其自动驾驶技术 “蔚来自动驾驶 ”（NAD）的月度订阅。然而，与特斯拉的 “全自动驾驶 ”套件类似，预计将于 2022 年推出的 NAD 技术尚未使蔚来汽车能够在没有人工干预的情况下驾驶，但它确实将蔚来推向了与行业领导者特斯拉不相上下的位置。蔚来用户可以选择订阅ADaaS，每月订阅费为人民币680元。目前上路的蔚来汽车超过 102,000 辆，新的订阅套餐预计将带来 8.4 亿元人民币（1.32 亿美元）的增量年销售额；假设大多数现有蔚来车主都注册了这项服务，那么在这项服务推出时，额外的收入来源估计约为 100 亿元人民币（16 亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> NIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an&nbsp;estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).</p><p><blockquote>蔚来在自动驾驶技术方面的持续发展有望在不久的将来使公司及其股东受益匪浅。到2025年，全球自动驾驶汽车市场将成为增长最快、需求量最大的细分市场之一，估计价值达1.6万亿美元。如果占据该市场 6% 的份额，蔚来现有 670 亿美元的市值将至少增加 1000 亿美元，使其每股价值超过 100 美元。考虑到蔚来是目前极少数在自动驾驶领域取得切实成果的纯电动汽车制造商之一，并且正在积极增长海外销量，我们有信心该公司有能力占领上述6%以上的市场份额，并轻松实现到2025年每股价格超过100美元。结合全球消费者偏好向电气化和自动化的转变，我们预计到 2025 财年汽车销量将达到约 300,000 辆，总收入将达到约 1,400 亿元人民币（220 亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6c800a04e6df92802f6893d214eecdd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"213\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部预测（NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Global Expansion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>全球扩张</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537449f8f7ee9c736b48c1776cbb7259\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\"><span>Source: ir.nio.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ir.nio.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Another catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first&nbsp;overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway&nbsp;in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the&nbsp;ES8, which currently retails at a&nbsp;starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the&nbsp;ET7, to follow in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>推动蔚来股价突破 100 美元的另一个催化剂是他们正在进行的海外扩张努力。蔚来一直透露其全球扩张的意图，尤其是在美国和欧洲，作为其成为行业领导者计划的一部分。蔚来将于9月在挪威奥斯陆开设其首个海外销售和服务中心。2022 年，该品牌在挪威的足迹将进一步扩大，蔚来将在卑尔根、斯塔万格、特隆赫姆和克里斯蒂安桑开设四家门店。除了直销和服务中心外，蔚来还将为欧洲推出完整的充电地图，首先是挪威的四个蔚来换电站，为蔚来的新车主提供该品牌赖以取得成功的便利和续航里程。蔚来的旗舰 SUV ES8 目前的起售价约为 6.7 万美元，将是首款引入欧洲市场的车型，随后该品牌最新的全尺寸轿车 ET7 将于 2022 年推出。</blockquote></p><p> With a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来在中国豪华电动汽车市场拥有良好的销售记录，其规格可与全球知名的特斯拉相媲美，因此没有理由不在海外取得成功。如前所述，蔚来车辆充满电后的续航里程可达 435 英里，对于那些正在寻找可靠伴侣陪伴他们进行日常通勤和长途旅行的欧美潜在车主来说，这是一个理想的选择。蔚来的外观和内饰设计也是现代、豪华的，可与欧洲和北美人口的偏好相媲美。结合多样化的产品线和价格范围，蔚来有能力满足全球范围内对电动汽车日益增长的需求。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO’s Historical Performance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来的历史表现</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Just a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a&nbsp;capital injection of RMB 7 billion&nbsp;(approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its&nbsp;IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.</p><p><blockquote>就在一年多前，尽管汽车销售仍在继续，但由于流动性问题，蔚来的股价还是创下了不到 2 美元的历史新低。2020 年年中，中国合肥市政府出手相救，注资 70 亿元人民币（约合 10 亿美元）。该安排导致“蔚来中国”成立，作为持有蔚来所有核心业务和资产的运营实体；蔚来目前持有蔚来中国 90.36% 的股权，“合肥战略投资者”财团持有剩余 9.64% 的股权。这种合作关系成为公司的生命线；额外的资本为公司的运营和汽车销售带来了显著改善，这反映在公司强劲的财务业绩和 2020 年夏季股价的上升趋势上。到 2020 年第二季度末，蔚来的股价平均反弹了近 20%，总收入环比增长了 171%。该公司股价在 2020 年第三季度上涨了两倍多，平均达到 15.40 美元，并继续攀升至第四季度的平均水平 38.70 美元。截至 2021 年 3 月 31 日的最新季度末，蔚来的平均股价为 50.97 美元，2 月份达到近 62 美元的峰值，是其 2018 年 IPO 价格的 10 倍多。如今，该公司的市值超过 670 亿美元，超过了在纽约证券交易所首次亮相时的 10 亿美元市值。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75a1d7edb18c1762028ba54f617e1982\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\"><span>Source: Author, with data from ir.nio.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自ir.nio.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> NIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the&nbsp;growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the&nbsp;recently renewed manufacturing agreement&nbsp;with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.</p><p><blockquote>自今年早些时候股价在 2 月底成长型股票抛售之前达到顶峰以来，蔚来的基本面也一直在稳步改善。2021年的交付量继续呈指数级加速，第一季度交付量超过20,000辆，占2020年总交付量的近50%。该公司继续展现出光明的前景，4 月份交付了超过 7,100 辆汽车，同比增长超过 125%。蔚来在2021年第一季度还保持了经营活动的正现金流，这得益于更高的交付量和有效的成本管理措施，使其毛利率提高到19.5%，与特斯拉等行业领导者相当第一季度毛利率为21%。如上所述，我们预计到 2025 财年汽车销量将接近 300,000 辆，相当于总收入约为 1,400 亿元人民币（220 亿美元）（每股 18.60 美元）。近期与合营企业「江淮汽车集团」（「江淮汽车集团」）重续的制造协议进一步证实了我们对2025财年的整车销售预测，该协议将目前的年产能由100,000辆增加至240,000辆；目前正在合肥兴建的「NeoPark」预计年产能将增加100万台，进一步支持我们对蔚来继续致力于发展业务的积极前景。考虑到行业同行特斯拉目前的市盈率为 16.43 倍，年收入约为 420 亿美元（第一季度收入年化为 103.89 亿美元），同样的比例应用于蔚来预测的 2025 财年总收入，预计市盈率将达到 8.7 倍，股价将超过 160 美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO vs. LI and XPEV</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来与李和 XPEV</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af8fa939f92be448d1f427a6ac4bfb25\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\"><span>Source: Finviz</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Finviz</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>我们还将蔚来目前的市盈率与国内同行进行了比较，以确定蔚来股价超过 100 美元的时间表。蔚来目前的市盈率约为14.88倍，而国内行业同行理想汽车（纳斯达克股票代码：LI）和XPEV目前的市盈率分别为14.46倍和21.31倍。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Considering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到蔚来的技术、收入、全球足迹和现金流都强于李和XPEV，前者的交易倍数应该远高于后两者。即使蔚来的市盈率达到 18.1 倍（XPEV 的中点），也将推动该公司目前的股价升至 51.50 美元，根据最新交易股价 42.34 美元（6 月 1 日）计算，这意味着 22% 的上涨潜力。根据我们对蔚来 2025 财年收入的预测为 1400 亿元人民币（220 亿美元），即每股 18.60 美元，即使是 18.1 倍的一半也足以让蔚来的股价在 2025 年突破 160 美元；我们相信，蔚来的交易倍数是可以实现的，因为运营现金和届时实现的技术进步将使他们在电动汽车行业走上持续长期增长的轨道，预计这种增长将持续到 2030 年及以后品牌的 4 级自动驾驶技术开发完成并商业化。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Risks and Challenges</b></p><p><blockquote><b>业务风险与挑战</b></blockquote></p><p> As mentioned in one of my&nbsp;previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s&nbsp;denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.</p><p><blockquote>正如我在之前一篇关于蔚来的文章中提到的，《外国公司问责法》（“Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act”）仍然是公司股价面临的最重大威胁之一。目前，中国的公共会计师事务所不符合SEC要求的PCAOB检查规则，2020年12月HFCA法案的颁布要求这些公共会计师事务所在颁布之日起三年内遵守PCAOB检查要求；否则，上述公司审计的所有上市公司都将面临退市风险。蔚来目前正在接受普华永道中天会计师事务所（PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP）的审计，该事务所已被列入 PCAOB 的拒绝准入名单。如果中国当局和 PCAOB 不能尽快就进行检查达成协议，从纽约证券交易所退市的潜在威胁可能会对投资者起到威慑作用，并最终导致蔚来股价长期下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Another imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来业务面临的另一个迫在眉睫的挑战是全球芯片供应持续短缺。随着汽车行业越来越依赖芯片来管理车辆的各项功能，汽车制造商的需求和芯片制造商的供应之间的差距正在扩大。蔚来也不例外，受到持续芯片供应危机的影响——2021年3月，蔚来停止了江淮蔚来制造工厂的生产活动五个工作日，以调整生产水平。然而，该公司继续有效地应对这种情况，正如他们逐月增加的交付数量所证明的那样；在蔚来最新发布的 4 月份交付更新新闻稿中，该公司继续满足市场需求，交付了 7100 多辆汽车，同比增长 125%。</blockquote></p><p> Competition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.</p><p><blockquote>近年来，电动汽车领域的竞争也愈演愈烈。由于对气候变化的担忧日益加剧，加上传统汽油动力汽车和电动汽车之间的价格平价，消费者对电动汽车的态度在过去十年中发生了巨大变化。随着第三方原始设备制造商更容易获得汽车电池解决方案，新兴电动汽车制造商的准入门槛也显着降低；新进入者现在更热衷于参与不断增长的电动汽车行业的盈利机会，因为初始投资变得比 2003 年特斯拉更加合理，当时电动汽车对许多人来说仍然只是一个概念。除了新进入者之外，福特（纽约证券交易所股票代码：F）等传统汽油燃料汽车制造商也开始将全电池驱动汽车纳入其车队，以满足不断变化的消费者需求并在汽车行业保持竞争力。然而，我们相信蔚来拥有在新的竞争格局中长期取得成功所需的品牌、客户体验、生产战略、人才和商业模式（在此进一步分析）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来已经在中国国内市场建立了强大的品牌形象，中国国内市场是目前增长最快的电动汽车市场之一，2020年占全球电动汽车销量的40%以上。结合他们在生产优质电动汽车、建设创新充电基础设施、在自动驾驶技术开发方面取得突破性进展以及执行海外扩张战略方面的成熟能力，蔚来正在有效地缩小他们与特斯拉在全球范围内电动汽车领域的差距。我们相信，由于汽车行业对电气化和自动化的需求不断增长，未来五年将是这家电动汽车和科技公司的转型时代，而蔚来已经证明在这方面表现出色。其持续成就的价值将很快反映在其股价上，对于那些希望从即将到来的绿色转型和自动化时代中获利的人来说，它们是一个值得选择的股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432901-nio-stock-reach-100\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432901-nio-stock-reach-100","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148130971","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.\nThe company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.\nWe believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.\n\nPhoto by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nDespite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).\nFounded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.\nA Trailblazer in Innovative Technology\nSource:ir.nio.com\nNIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the 181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are more than 226 battery swapping stations across China, with more on the way following a recent strategic partnership agreement between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.\nIn addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.\nTo further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently partnered with Mobileye – an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.\nNIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).\nSource: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).\nGlobal Expansion\nSource: ir.nio.com\nAnother catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the ES8, which currently retails at a starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the ET7, to follow in 2022.\nWith a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.\nNIO’s Historical Performance\nJust a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a capital injection of RMB 7 billion (approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.\nSource: Author, with data from ir.nio.com\nNIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the recently renewed manufacturing agreement with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.\nNIO vs. LI and XPEV\nSource: Finviz\nWe have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.\nConsidering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.\nBusiness Risks and Challenges\nAs mentioned in one of my previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.\nAnother imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.\nCompetition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.\nConclusion\nNIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":916,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118118603,"gmtCreate":1622723055802,"gmtModify":1631892207644,"author":{"id":"3576989268942137","authorId":"3576989268942137","name":"37df2d81","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576989268942137","authorIdStr":"3576989268942137"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"yessss","listText":"yessss","text":"yessss","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/118118603","repostId":"1139859065","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1466,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":111068784,"gmtCreate":1622644803048,"gmtModify":1631892207648,"author":{"id":"3576989268942137","authorId":"3576989268942137","name":"37df2d81","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576989268942137","authorIdStr":"3576989268942137"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[Sly]&nbsp;","listText":"[Sly]&nbsp;","text":"[Sly]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/111068784","repostId":"1128017388","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1128017388","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622618011,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1128017388?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-02 15:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Where Will NIO Stock Be In 5 Years?<blockquote>5年后蔚来股票会在哪里？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1128017388","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nNIO is a high-growth Chinese EV player with attractive products.\nIts BaaS technology provid","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>NIO is a high-growth Chinese EV player with attractive products.</li>  <li>Its BaaS technology provides a USP that should help NIO gain market share in the coming years.</li>  <li>NIO is trading at a high valuation, and a lot of future growth is priced in already. Investors may have to be patient to see the growth story play out.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/215963a081072a260aa40bbb8991be26\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1152\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by Andy Feng/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>蔚来是一家高增长的中国电动汽车制造商，拥有极具吸引力的产品。</li><li>其BaaS技术提供了一个USP，应该有助于蔚来在未来几年获得市场份额。</li><li>蔚来的估值很高，未来的增长已经被消化了。投资者可能必须耐心等待增长故事的展开。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Andy Feng/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO (NIO) is a high-growth EV pure-play with unique offerings such as battery-as-a-service. The company enjoys growth tailwinds in its home market China and will increase its presence in overseas markets dramatically in the coming years. NIO is not as expensive as some other EV stocks, but shares are, on the other hand, still trading at a steep premium compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. Overall, NIO could return significant amounts of money in the coming years, but that is not a certainty, and investors should keep an eye on NIO's risk factors.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（蔚来）是一家高增长的纯电动汽车公司，提供电池即服务等独特产品。该公司在其国内市场中国享有增长顺风，并将在未来几年大幅增加其在海外市场的份额。蔚来的股价不像其他一些电动汽车股票那么贵，但另一方面，与传统汽车公司的估值相比，其股价仍然大幅溢价。总体而言，蔚来可能会在未来几年返还大量资金，但这并不确定，投资者应密切关注蔚来的风险因素。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来股价</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO, Inc. is one of China's leading EV pure-plays, and that is reflected in its current valuation:</p><p><blockquote>蔚来是中国领先的纯电动汽车公司之一，这反映在其当前的估值中：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/335372a846d2b847c5006c47a65abf2d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At slightly below $40, NIO is valued at more than $60 billion right now. This is about 40% less than the valuation shares have traded at when they peaked in early 2021, which reflects the declining enthusiasm for EV stocks, as most of NIO's peers, including Tesla (TSLA), have seen their shares come back as well. Still, for reference, NIO is valued around the same level as Ford (F) - which is a way larger company for now, in terms of revenue and vehicle sales.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的估值略低于 40 美元，目前已超过 600 亿美元。这比该股在 2021 年初达到峰值时的估值低约 40%，这反映出人们对电动汽车股票的热情正在下降，因为包括特斯拉 (TSLA) 在内的大多数蔚来同行的股价也出现了回升。不过，作为参考，蔚来的估值与福特 (F) 大致相同——就收入和汽车销量而言，福特目前是一家规模更大的公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO A Good Long-Term Stock?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来是一只好的长期股票吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is active in the high-growth EV market and thus benefits a lot from market growth tailwinds. On top of that, NIO also has an attractive product portfolio that includes well-received models such as the ES6 and ES8 SUVs. What differentiates NIO from most other EV companies is its battery-swapping technology that allows consumers to get a fully-charged battery in a couple of minutes when visiting one of NIO's battery-swapping stations.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来活跃于高增长的电动汽车市场，因此从市场增长的顺风中受益匪浅。最重要的是，蔚来还拥有极具吸引力的产品组合，其中包括 ES6 和 ES8 SUV 等广受好评的车型。蔚来与大多数其他电动汽车公司的不同之处在于其电池更换技术，该技术允许消费者在参观蔚来汽车的换电站时在几分钟内获得充满电的电池。</blockquote></p><p> This means that the downtime when doing longer trips via an EV is reduced dramatically, as a battery-swap takes roughly as much time as refueling an ICE-powered car, whereas recharging most EVs takes well more than a couple of minutes. NIO's battery-swapping stations are being built out around China right now, although there is no meaningful footprint outside of NIO's home market yet.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着通过电动汽车进行长途旅行时的停机时间会大大减少，因为更换电池所需的时间大约与为内燃机驱动的汽车加油一样多，而为大多数电动汽车充电所需的时间远远超过几分钟。蔚来的换电站目前正在中国各地建设，尽管在蔚来本土市场之外还没有有意义的足迹。</blockquote></p><p> Still, NIO plans to roll out that service in international markets over the years, and once there is a large enough footprint of them to make a difference, this should be a unique selling point for NIO that will help differentiate its offerings from those of most peers. This could, I believe, result in further market share gains, which is why I wouldn't be surprised to see NIO grow at a rapid pace for the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，蔚来计划在未来几年内在国际市场推出这项服务，一旦有足够大的足迹来发挥作用，这应该是蔚来的一个独特卖点，有助于将其产品与大多数同行区分开来。我相信，这可能会导致市场份额进一步增长，这就是为什么我不会对蔚来在未来几年快速增长感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p> For 2021, NIO will likely deliver revenue growth of more than 100% on the back of strong deliveries growth, as the analyst community is currently forecasting a 130% revenue increase this year. For Q2, NIO is expecting a growth rate of&nbsp;around 110%&nbsp;for its deliveries, following a massive 480% revenue increase during the first quarter. NIO thus is growing quicker than the EV market as a whole, and also quicker than peers such as Tesla, which will grow by around 50%-60% this year, according to the analyst community, which is about half the growth rate that is expected for NIO this year.</p><p><blockquote>2021 年，由于交付量强劲增长，蔚来的收入可能会增长 100% 以上，因为分析师界目前预测今年的收入将增长 130%。继第一季度收入大幅增长 480% 之后，蔚来预计第二季度的交付量增长率将达到 110% 左右。因此，蔚来的增长速度快于整个电动汽车市场，也快于特斯拉等同行，据分析师界称，特斯拉今年的增长速度将达到50%-60%左右，约为蔚来今年预期增长率的一半。</blockquote></p><p> Maintaining 100%+ growth forever is, of course, not possible, and NIO's growth will decline from that level in the coming years. But due to the fact that its products are well-liked in its home market, while the company is also ambitiously planning a major entry into the&nbsp;large European EV market, NIO should still deliver very considerable growth in the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>当然，永远保持100%+的增长是不可能的，未来几年蔚来的增长将从这个水平下降。但由于其产品在国内市场广受欢迎，同时该公司还雄心勃勃地计划大举进军欧洲大型电动汽车市场，蔚来在未来几年仍将实现非常可观的增长。</blockquote></p><p> Obvious growth tailwinds for a company, or even an industry, do not necessarily equate to massive share price upside, however. Investors should consider that NIO will, like all auto companies, be active in a cyclical, capital-intense industry where margins, on average, are not very high. This doesn't mean that NIO does not have long-term upside, but investors should keep in mind that a home run is not guaranteed when investing in NIO or other EV stocks - despite the fact that EV sales are growing quickly.</p><p><blockquote>然而，对于一家公司甚至一个行业来说，明显的增长顺风并不一定等同于股价的巨大上涨空间。投资者应该考虑到，蔚来将像所有汽车公司一样，活跃在一个周期性、资本密集型的行业，平均利润率不是很高。这并不意味着蔚来没有长期上涨空间，但投资者应该记住，在投资蔚来或其他电动汽车股票时，并不能保证全垒打——尽管电动汽车销量正在快速增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO Stock Forecast In 5 Years</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5年后蔚来股票预测</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> NIO will grow its revenues by more than 100% this year, according to most estimates, but growth projections beyond that point are varying a lot more. Looking at 2022, for example, the analyst consensus for NIO's revenues is $8.7 billion, which would reflect a 78% increase versus the consensus for 2021. Estimates are in a wide range, however, as analyst estimates range from $7.3 billion to $11.9 billion in revenue in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>根据大多数人的估计，蔚来今年的收入将增长 100% 以上，但除此之外的增长预测差异更大。以 2022 年为例，分析师对蔚来汽车收入的共识为 87 亿美元，比 2021 年的共识增长了 78%。然而，估计范围很广，分析师估计 2022 年收入在 73 亿美元至 119 亿美元之间。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, the most bullish estimates see NIO deliver 60% higher revenues than the most bearish estimates. Since these estimates are being made for 2022 - just one year from now - this wide discrepancy shows how hard it is to forecast exact revenue or earnings numbers for a company like NIO.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，最乐观的估计是蔚来的收入比最悲观的估计高出 60%。由于这些估计是针对 2022 年（距离现在只有一年时间）做出的，这种巨大的差异表明，对于像蔚来这样的公司来说，预测准确的收入或盈利数字是多么困难。</blockquote></p><p> For my estimate for 2025's revenues, I'll go with the analyst consensus for 2022, i.e. $8.7 billion, and then assume that revenues will grow at 1.5x the forecasted overall&nbsp;market growth rate of 27%&nbsp;in 2023, 2024, 2025, and 2026. This would get us to $34 billion in revenue in 2026, i.e. five years from now. Since analysts are currently forecasting that revenue will grow by 110% this year, and by around 80% next year, some readers may argue that a 40% growth rate estimate for 2023-2026 is too conservative. But the major unknowns and uncertainties around competitive pressures, government policies, etc., mean that I think that projecting a higher growth rate for many years in advance might be too optimistic.</p><p><blockquote>对于我对 2025 年收入的估计，我将遵循分析师对 2022 年的共识，即 87 亿美元，然后假设收入将增长 2023 年、2024 年、2025 年和 2026 年预测整体市场增长率 27% 的 1.5 倍。这将使我们在 2026 年（即五年后）的收入达到 340 亿美元。由于分析师目前预测今年收入将增长 110%，明年将增长 80% 左右，一些读者可能会认为 2023-2026 年 40% 的增长率预测过于保守。但围绕竞争压力、政府政策等的主要未知和不确定性。，意味着我认为提前多年预测更高的增长率可能过于乐观。</blockquote></p><p> What might a $34 billion top line mean for NIO's stock price? Right now, shares are valued at 11.6x this year's expected sales, which is almost perfectly in line with the valuation of XPeng (XPEV), and slightly lower than that of Tesla:</p><p><blockquote>340亿美元的营收对蔚来的股价意味着什么？目前，该股估值为今年预期销售额的11.6倍，几乎与小鹏汽车（XPEV）的估值完全一致，略低于特斯拉：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae661b708eec89bcb50b06a1b6947280\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"501\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Looking at 2022, we see that shares are valued at around 7x expected revenues right now, whereas XPeng and Tesla trade at 6x and 9x their expected revenues right now. I highly doubt that the average EV company will be trading at high single-digit or even double-digit sales multiples in 2026, as this is just too much of a difference versus the 0.5-2x revenue multiples that legacy auto companies usually trade at. But when we assume that NIO, as an EV pure-play, will still trade at a premium to legacy auto in the middle of the 2020s, a 3x or 4x sales multiple might be a realistic estimate.</p><p><blockquote>展望 2022 年，我们看到目前的股价估值约为预期收入的 7 倍，而小鹏汽车和特斯拉目前的交易价格分别是预期收入的 6 倍和 9 倍。我非常怀疑到 2026 年，普通电动汽车公司的销售倍数能否达到个位数甚至两位数，因为这与传统汽车公司通常的 0.5-2 倍收入倍数相比差异太大了。但当我们假设蔚来作为纯电动汽车，在 2020 年代中期仍将以高于传统汽车的价格进行交易时，3 倍或 4 倍的销售倍数可能是一个现实的估计。</blockquote></p><p> When we go with 3.5x our revenue forecast for 2026, that would equate to a market capitalization of 119 billion - about 90% more than NIO's current market capitalization. NIO's share count has not been constant, however, and has, in fact, been rising considerably in the past. When we assume that the share count will rise by another 20% through 2026, to 1.9 billion, then shares would trade at $61 in 2026. This would mean that shares have an upside potential of around 55% over the next five years, or about 9% annually.</p><p><blockquote>当我们将 2026 年收入预测提高 3.5 倍时，这相当于 1190 亿美元的市值，比蔚来目前的市值高出约 90%。然而，蔚来的股票数量并不是一成不变的，事实上，过去一直在大幅上升。如果我们假设到 2026 年股票数量将再增加 20%，达到 19 亿股，那么 2026 年股票的交易价格将为 61 美元。这意味着未来五年该股的上涨潜力约为 55%，即每年约 9%。</blockquote></p><p> That is not at all unattractive, but it also isn't an absolutely outstanding return. On top of that, NIO, like many other EV startups, is a company with above-average volatility, above-average risks, and above-average uncertainties. I thus would not call NIO overly attractive at current prices, as the forecasted return is solid, but goes hand in hand with considerable risks/uncertainties. One can, of course, argue that the forecasted growth is too high, or too low, or that the target sales multiple should be different in 2026. As a base case scenario, I feel like this is reasonable, however.</p><p><blockquote>这并非完全没有吸引力，但也不是绝对出色的回报。最重要的是，蔚来与许多其他电动汽车初创公司一样，是一家波动性高于平均水平、风险高于平均水平和不确定性高于平均水平的公司。因此，我不会认为看涨期权·蔚来在当前价格下过于有吸引力，因为预测回报是可靠的，但伴随着相当大的风险/不确定性。当然，有人可能会说预测的增长太高或太低，或者 2026 年的目标销售倍数应该有所不同。然而，作为一个基本情况，我觉得这是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO Stock A Buy Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来股票现在值得买入吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> In retrospect, it is pretty clear that NIO at $10 about a year ago was a great opportunity, and that buying NIO at $67 at the peak earlier this year was a pretty bad decision. NIO today, in the high $30s, is somewhere in between these two extremes. I believe that, for long-term investors, NIO has a good chance of delivering solid returns over the years. At the same time, however, a lot of growth is priced into the stock right now, and it is not possible to forecast what competitors will do over the coming years, how accommodating governments will be to EVs, how well the rollout in Europe and other international markets will go, etc.</p><p><blockquote>回想起来，很明显，大约一年前 10 美元的蔚来是一个很好的机会，而今年早些时候在峰值时以 67 美元的价格购买蔚来是一个非常糟糕的决定。如今，蔚来的价格高达 30 美元，介于这两个极端之间。我相信，对于长期投资者来说，蔚来很有可能在未来几年内带来丰厚的回报。然而，与此同时，该股目前已被视为大幅增长，无法预测竞争对手在未来几年会做什么、政府对电动汽车的容忍度如何、在欧洲和其他国际市场的推广情况如何等等。</blockquote></p><p> I think NIO is more attractive than many other EV companies today, including many of the EV startups that don't have any viable products yet, and also versus Tesla (which is growing slower and still trades at a higher valuation). I would not be surprised to see NIO's stock deliver solid returns during the 2020s. I don't think that NIO is an absolute no-brainer buy today, however, as NIO still trades at a quite high valuation, for now, even factoring in its strong growth.</p><p><blockquote>我认为蔚来比当今许多其他电动汽车公司更具吸引力，包括许多尚未拥有任何可行产品的电动汽车初创公司，也比特斯拉（增长速度较慢，估值仍然较高）更具吸引力。如果蔚来汽车的股票在 2020 年代取得稳健的回报，我不会感到惊讶。然而，我认为今天购买蔚来并不是绝对显而易见的，因为蔚来目前的估值仍然很高，即使考虑到其强劲的增长。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For those that are enterprising and do not mind the risks and uncertainties around future product launches and international expansion, the stock's volatility, and so on, NIO could be a buy today. But it is not a good choice for everyone, and some may want to watch the EV race from the sidelines instead of putting money at risk at current valuations.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些有进取心、不介意未来产品推出和国际扩张的风险和不确定性、股票波动性等的人来说，蔚来今天可能值得买入。但这并不是每个人的好选择，有些人可能想在场外观看电动汽车竞赛，而不是以当前的估值将资金置于风险之中。</blockquote></p><p> The current analyst consensus share price target is $59, but I personally do not think this is realistic in the very near term. Based on expected revenues for 2021, this would put NIO at an 18x sales multiple, which is, I believe, not justified. Over the next five years, however, a share price in that region seems achievable, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>目前分析师一致的股价目标是59美元，但我个人认为这在短期内是不现实的。根据 2021 年的预期收入，这将使蔚来的销售倍数达到 18 倍，我认为这是不合理的。然而，我相信，在未来五年内，该地区的股价似乎是可以实现的。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where Will NIO Stock Be In 5 Years?<blockquote>5年后蔚来股票会在哪里？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere Will NIO Stock Be In 5 Years?<blockquote>5年后蔚来股票会在哪里？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-02 15:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>NIO is a high-growth Chinese EV player with attractive products.</li>  <li>Its BaaS technology provides a USP that should help NIO gain market share in the coming years.</li>  <li>NIO is trading at a high valuation, and a lot of future growth is priced in already. Investors may have to be patient to see the growth story play out.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/215963a081072a260aa40bbb8991be26\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1152\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by Andy Feng/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>蔚来是一家高增长的中国电动汽车制造商，拥有极具吸引力的产品。</li><li>其BaaS技术提供了一个USP，应该有助于蔚来在未来几年获得市场份额。</li><li>蔚来的估值很高，未来的增长已经被消化了。投资者可能必须耐心等待增长故事的展开。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Andy Feng/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO (NIO) is a high-growth EV pure-play with unique offerings such as battery-as-a-service. The company enjoys growth tailwinds in its home market China and will increase its presence in overseas markets dramatically in the coming years. NIO is not as expensive as some other EV stocks, but shares are, on the other hand, still trading at a steep premium compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. Overall, NIO could return significant amounts of money in the coming years, but that is not a certainty, and investors should keep an eye on NIO's risk factors.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（蔚来）是一家高增长的纯电动汽车公司，提供电池即服务等独特产品。该公司在其国内市场中国享有增长顺风，并将在未来几年大幅增加其在海外市场的份额。蔚来的股价不像其他一些电动汽车股票那么贵，但另一方面，与传统汽车公司的估值相比，其股价仍然大幅溢价。总体而言，蔚来可能会在未来几年返还大量资金，但这并不确定，投资者应密切关注蔚来的风险因素。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来股价</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO, Inc. is one of China's leading EV pure-plays, and that is reflected in its current valuation:</p><p><blockquote>蔚来是中国领先的纯电动汽车公司之一，这反映在其当前的估值中：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/335372a846d2b847c5006c47a65abf2d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At slightly below $40, NIO is valued at more than $60 billion right now. This is about 40% less than the valuation shares have traded at when they peaked in early 2021, which reflects the declining enthusiasm for EV stocks, as most of NIO's peers, including Tesla (TSLA), have seen their shares come back as well. Still, for reference, NIO is valued around the same level as Ford (F) - which is a way larger company for now, in terms of revenue and vehicle sales.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的估值略低于 40 美元，目前已超过 600 亿美元。这比该股在 2021 年初达到峰值时的估值低约 40%，这反映出人们对电动汽车股票的热情正在下降，因为包括特斯拉 (TSLA) 在内的大多数蔚来同行的股价也出现了回升。不过，作为参考，蔚来的估值与福特 (F) 大致相同——就收入和汽车销量而言，福特目前是一家规模更大的公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO A Good Long-Term Stock?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来是一只好的长期股票吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is active in the high-growth EV market and thus benefits a lot from market growth tailwinds. On top of that, NIO also has an attractive product portfolio that includes well-received models such as the ES6 and ES8 SUVs. What differentiates NIO from most other EV companies is its battery-swapping technology that allows consumers to get a fully-charged battery in a couple of minutes when visiting one of NIO's battery-swapping stations.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来活跃于高增长的电动汽车市场，因此从市场增长的顺风中受益匪浅。最重要的是，蔚来还拥有极具吸引力的产品组合，其中包括 ES6 和 ES8 SUV 等广受好评的车型。蔚来与大多数其他电动汽车公司的不同之处在于其电池更换技术，该技术允许消费者在参观蔚来汽车的换电站时在几分钟内获得充满电的电池。</blockquote></p><p> This means that the downtime when doing longer trips via an EV is reduced dramatically, as a battery-swap takes roughly as much time as refueling an ICE-powered car, whereas recharging most EVs takes well more than a couple of minutes. NIO's battery-swapping stations are being built out around China right now, although there is no meaningful footprint outside of NIO's home market yet.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着通过电动汽车进行长途旅行时的停机时间会大大减少，因为更换电池所需的时间大约与为内燃机驱动的汽车加油一样多，而为大多数电动汽车充电所需的时间远远超过几分钟。蔚来的换电站目前正在中国各地建设，尽管在蔚来本土市场之外还没有有意义的足迹。</blockquote></p><p> Still, NIO plans to roll out that service in international markets over the years, and once there is a large enough footprint of them to make a difference, this should be a unique selling point for NIO that will help differentiate its offerings from those of most peers. This could, I believe, result in further market share gains, which is why I wouldn't be surprised to see NIO grow at a rapid pace for the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，蔚来计划在未来几年内在国际市场推出这项服务，一旦有足够大的足迹来发挥作用，这应该是蔚来的一个独特卖点，有助于将其产品与大多数同行区分开来。我相信，这可能会导致市场份额进一步增长，这就是为什么我不会对蔚来在未来几年快速增长感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p> For 2021, NIO will likely deliver revenue growth of more than 100% on the back of strong deliveries growth, as the analyst community is currently forecasting a 130% revenue increase this year. For Q2, NIO is expecting a growth rate of&nbsp;around 110%&nbsp;for its deliveries, following a massive 480% revenue increase during the first quarter. NIO thus is growing quicker than the EV market as a whole, and also quicker than peers such as Tesla, which will grow by around 50%-60% this year, according to the analyst community, which is about half the growth rate that is expected for NIO this year.</p><p><blockquote>2021 年，由于交付量强劲增长，蔚来的收入可能会增长 100% 以上，因为分析师界目前预测今年的收入将增长 130%。继第一季度收入大幅增长 480% 之后，蔚来预计第二季度的交付量增长率将达到 110% 左右。因此，蔚来的增长速度快于整个电动汽车市场，也快于特斯拉等同行，据分析师界称，特斯拉今年的增长速度将达到50%-60%左右，约为蔚来今年预期增长率的一半。</blockquote></p><p> Maintaining 100%+ growth forever is, of course, not possible, and NIO's growth will decline from that level in the coming years. But due to the fact that its products are well-liked in its home market, while the company is also ambitiously planning a major entry into the&nbsp;large European EV market, NIO should still deliver very considerable growth in the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>当然，永远保持100%+的增长是不可能的，未来几年蔚来的增长将从这个水平下降。但由于其产品在国内市场广受欢迎，同时该公司还雄心勃勃地计划大举进军欧洲大型电动汽车市场，蔚来在未来几年仍将实现非常可观的增长。</blockquote></p><p> Obvious growth tailwinds for a company, or even an industry, do not necessarily equate to massive share price upside, however. Investors should consider that NIO will, like all auto companies, be active in a cyclical, capital-intense industry where margins, on average, are not very high. This doesn't mean that NIO does not have long-term upside, but investors should keep in mind that a home run is not guaranteed when investing in NIO or other EV stocks - despite the fact that EV sales are growing quickly.</p><p><blockquote>然而，对于一家公司甚至一个行业来说，明显的增长顺风并不一定等同于股价的巨大上涨空间。投资者应该考虑到，蔚来将像所有汽车公司一样，活跃在一个周期性、资本密集型的行业，平均利润率不是很高。这并不意味着蔚来没有长期上涨空间，但投资者应该记住，在投资蔚来或其他电动汽车股票时，并不能保证全垒打——尽管电动汽车销量正在快速增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO Stock Forecast In 5 Years</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5年后蔚来股票预测</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> NIO will grow its revenues by more than 100% this year, according to most estimates, but growth projections beyond that point are varying a lot more. Looking at 2022, for example, the analyst consensus for NIO's revenues is $8.7 billion, which would reflect a 78% increase versus the consensus for 2021. Estimates are in a wide range, however, as analyst estimates range from $7.3 billion to $11.9 billion in revenue in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>根据大多数人的估计，蔚来今年的收入将增长 100% 以上，但除此之外的增长预测差异更大。以 2022 年为例，分析师对蔚来汽车收入的共识为 87 亿美元，比 2021 年的共识增长了 78%。然而，估计范围很广，分析师估计 2022 年收入在 73 亿美元至 119 亿美元之间。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, the most bullish estimates see NIO deliver 60% higher revenues than the most bearish estimates. Since these estimates are being made for 2022 - just one year from now - this wide discrepancy shows how hard it is to forecast exact revenue or earnings numbers for a company like NIO.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，最乐观的估计是蔚来的收入比最悲观的估计高出 60%。由于这些估计是针对 2022 年（距离现在只有一年时间）做出的，这种巨大的差异表明，对于像蔚来这样的公司来说，预测准确的收入或盈利数字是多么困难。</blockquote></p><p> For my estimate for 2025's revenues, I'll go with the analyst consensus for 2022, i.e. $8.7 billion, and then assume that revenues will grow at 1.5x the forecasted overall&nbsp;market growth rate of 27%&nbsp;in 2023, 2024, 2025, and 2026. This would get us to $34 billion in revenue in 2026, i.e. five years from now. Since analysts are currently forecasting that revenue will grow by 110% this year, and by around 80% next year, some readers may argue that a 40% growth rate estimate for 2023-2026 is too conservative. But the major unknowns and uncertainties around competitive pressures, government policies, etc., mean that I think that projecting a higher growth rate for many years in advance might be too optimistic.</p><p><blockquote>对于我对 2025 年收入的估计，我将遵循分析师对 2022 年的共识，即 87 亿美元，然后假设收入将增长 2023 年、2024 年、2025 年和 2026 年预测整体市场增长率 27% 的 1.5 倍。这将使我们在 2026 年（即五年后）的收入达到 340 亿美元。由于分析师目前预测今年收入将增长 110%，明年将增长 80% 左右，一些读者可能会认为 2023-2026 年 40% 的增长率预测过于保守。但围绕竞争压力、政府政策等的主要未知和不确定性。，意味着我认为提前多年预测更高的增长率可能过于乐观。</blockquote></p><p> What might a $34 billion top line mean for NIO's stock price? Right now, shares are valued at 11.6x this year's expected sales, which is almost perfectly in line with the valuation of XPeng (XPEV), and slightly lower than that of Tesla:</p><p><blockquote>340亿美元的营收对蔚来的股价意味着什么？目前，该股估值为今年预期销售额的11.6倍，几乎与小鹏汽车（XPEV）的估值完全一致，略低于特斯拉：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae661b708eec89bcb50b06a1b6947280\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"501\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Looking at 2022, we see that shares are valued at around 7x expected revenues right now, whereas XPeng and Tesla trade at 6x and 9x their expected revenues right now. I highly doubt that the average EV company will be trading at high single-digit or even double-digit sales multiples in 2026, as this is just too much of a difference versus the 0.5-2x revenue multiples that legacy auto companies usually trade at. But when we assume that NIO, as an EV pure-play, will still trade at a premium to legacy auto in the middle of the 2020s, a 3x or 4x sales multiple might be a realistic estimate.</p><p><blockquote>展望 2022 年，我们看到目前的股价估值约为预期收入的 7 倍，而小鹏汽车和特斯拉目前的交易价格分别是预期收入的 6 倍和 9 倍。我非常怀疑到 2026 年，普通电动汽车公司的销售倍数能否达到个位数甚至两位数，因为这与传统汽车公司通常的 0.5-2 倍收入倍数相比差异太大了。但当我们假设蔚来作为纯电动汽车，在 2020 年代中期仍将以高于传统汽车的价格进行交易时，3 倍或 4 倍的销售倍数可能是一个现实的估计。</blockquote></p><p> When we go with 3.5x our revenue forecast for 2026, that would equate to a market capitalization of 119 billion - about 90% more than NIO's current market capitalization. NIO's share count has not been constant, however, and has, in fact, been rising considerably in the past. When we assume that the share count will rise by another 20% through 2026, to 1.9 billion, then shares would trade at $61 in 2026. This would mean that shares have an upside potential of around 55% over the next five years, or about 9% annually.</p><p><blockquote>当我们将 2026 年收入预测提高 3.5 倍时，这相当于 1190 亿美元的市值，比蔚来目前的市值高出约 90%。然而，蔚来的股票数量并不是一成不变的，事实上，过去一直在大幅上升。如果我们假设到 2026 年股票数量将再增加 20%，达到 19 亿股，那么 2026 年股票的交易价格将为 61 美元。这意味着未来五年该股的上涨潜力约为 55%，即每年约 9%。</blockquote></p><p> That is not at all unattractive, but it also isn't an absolutely outstanding return. On top of that, NIO, like many other EV startups, is a company with above-average volatility, above-average risks, and above-average uncertainties. I thus would not call NIO overly attractive at current prices, as the forecasted return is solid, but goes hand in hand with considerable risks/uncertainties. One can, of course, argue that the forecasted growth is too high, or too low, or that the target sales multiple should be different in 2026. As a base case scenario, I feel like this is reasonable, however.</p><p><blockquote>这并非完全没有吸引力，但也不是绝对出色的回报。最重要的是，蔚来与许多其他电动汽车初创公司一样，是一家波动性高于平均水平、风险高于平均水平和不确定性高于平均水平的公司。因此，我不会认为看涨期权·蔚来在当前价格下过于有吸引力，因为预测回报是可靠的，但伴随着相当大的风险/不确定性。当然，有人可能会说预测的增长太高或太低，或者 2026 年的目标销售倍数应该有所不同。然而，作为一个基本情况，我觉得这是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO Stock A Buy Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来股票现在值得买入吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> In retrospect, it is pretty clear that NIO at $10 about a year ago was a great opportunity, and that buying NIO at $67 at the peak earlier this year was a pretty bad decision. NIO today, in the high $30s, is somewhere in between these two extremes. I believe that, for long-term investors, NIO has a good chance of delivering solid returns over the years. At the same time, however, a lot of growth is priced into the stock right now, and it is not possible to forecast what competitors will do over the coming years, how accommodating governments will be to EVs, how well the rollout in Europe and other international markets will go, etc.</p><p><blockquote>回想起来，很明显，大约一年前 10 美元的蔚来是一个很好的机会，而今年早些时候在峰值时以 67 美元的价格购买蔚来是一个非常糟糕的决定。如今，蔚来的价格高达 30 美元，介于这两个极端之间。我相信，对于长期投资者来说，蔚来很有可能在未来几年内带来丰厚的回报。然而，与此同时，该股目前已被视为大幅增长，无法预测竞争对手在未来几年会做什么、政府对电动汽车的容忍度如何、在欧洲和其他国际市场的推广情况如何等等。</blockquote></p><p> I think NIO is more attractive than many other EV companies today, including many of the EV startups that don't have any viable products yet, and also versus Tesla (which is growing slower and still trades at a higher valuation). I would not be surprised to see NIO's stock deliver solid returns during the 2020s. I don't think that NIO is an absolute no-brainer buy today, however, as NIO still trades at a quite high valuation, for now, even factoring in its strong growth.</p><p><blockquote>我认为蔚来比当今许多其他电动汽车公司更具吸引力，包括许多尚未拥有任何可行产品的电动汽车初创公司，也比特斯拉（增长速度较慢，估值仍然较高）更具吸引力。如果蔚来汽车的股票在 2020 年代取得稳健的回报，我不会感到惊讶。然而，我认为今天购买蔚来并不是绝对显而易见的，因为蔚来目前的估值仍然很高，即使考虑到其强劲的增长。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For those that are enterprising and do not mind the risks and uncertainties around future product launches and international expansion, the stock's volatility, and so on, NIO could be a buy today. But it is not a good choice for everyone, and some may want to watch the EV race from the sidelines instead of putting money at risk at current valuations.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些有进取心、不介意未来产品推出和国际扩张的风险和不确定性、股票波动性等的人来说，蔚来今天可能值得买入。但这并不是每个人的好选择，有些人可能想在场外观看电动汽车竞赛，而不是以当前的估值将资金置于风险之中。</blockquote></p><p> The current analyst consensus share price target is $59, but I personally do not think this is realistic in the very near term. Based on expected revenues for 2021, this would put NIO at an 18x sales multiple, which is, I believe, not justified. Over the next five years, however, a share price in that region seems achievable, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>目前分析师一致的股价目标是59美元，但我个人认为这在短期内是不现实的。根据 2021 年的预期收入，这将使蔚来的销售倍数达到 18 倍，我认为这是不合理的。然而，我相信，在未来五年内，该地区的股价似乎是可以实现的。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432423-nio-stock-in-5-years\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432423-nio-stock-in-5-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1128017388","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO is a high-growth Chinese EV player with attractive products.\nIts BaaS technology provides a USP that should help NIO gain market share in the coming years.\nNIO is trading at a high valuation, and a lot of future growth is priced in already. Investors may have to be patient to see the growth story play out.\n\nPhoto by Andy Feng/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nNIO (NIO) is a high-growth EV pure-play with unique offerings such as battery-as-a-service. The company enjoys growth tailwinds in its home market China and will increase its presence in overseas markets dramatically in the coming years. NIO is not as expensive as some other EV stocks, but shares are, on the other hand, still trading at a steep premium compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. Overall, NIO could return significant amounts of money in the coming years, but that is not a certainty, and investors should keep an eye on NIO's risk factors.\nNIO Stock Price\nNIO, Inc. is one of China's leading EV pure-plays, and that is reflected in its current valuation:\nData by YCharts\nAt slightly below $40, NIO is valued at more than $60 billion right now. This is about 40% less than the valuation shares have traded at when they peaked in early 2021, which reflects the declining enthusiasm for EV stocks, as most of NIO's peers, including Tesla (TSLA), have seen their shares come back as well. Still, for reference, NIO is valued around the same level as Ford (F) - which is a way larger company for now, in terms of revenue and vehicle sales.\nIs NIO A Good Long-Term Stock?\nNIO is active in the high-growth EV market and thus benefits a lot from market growth tailwinds. On top of that, NIO also has an attractive product portfolio that includes well-received models such as the ES6 and ES8 SUVs. What differentiates NIO from most other EV companies is its battery-swapping technology that allows consumers to get a fully-charged battery in a couple of minutes when visiting one of NIO's battery-swapping stations.\nThis means that the downtime when doing longer trips via an EV is reduced dramatically, as a battery-swap takes roughly as much time as refueling an ICE-powered car, whereas recharging most EVs takes well more than a couple of minutes. NIO's battery-swapping stations are being built out around China right now, although there is no meaningful footprint outside of NIO's home market yet.\nStill, NIO plans to roll out that service in international markets over the years, and once there is a large enough footprint of them to make a difference, this should be a unique selling point for NIO that will help differentiate its offerings from those of most peers. This could, I believe, result in further market share gains, which is why I wouldn't be surprised to see NIO grow at a rapid pace for the coming years.\nFor 2021, NIO will likely deliver revenue growth of more than 100% on the back of strong deliveries growth, as the analyst community is currently forecasting a 130% revenue increase this year. For Q2, NIO is expecting a growth rate of around 110% for its deliveries, following a massive 480% revenue increase during the first quarter. NIO thus is growing quicker than the EV market as a whole, and also quicker than peers such as Tesla, which will grow by around 50%-60% this year, according to the analyst community, which is about half the growth rate that is expected for NIO this year.\nMaintaining 100%+ growth forever is, of course, not possible, and NIO's growth will decline from that level in the coming years. But due to the fact that its products are well-liked in its home market, while the company is also ambitiously planning a major entry into the large European EV market, NIO should still deliver very considerable growth in the coming years.\nObvious growth tailwinds for a company, or even an industry, do not necessarily equate to massive share price upside, however. Investors should consider that NIO will, like all auto companies, be active in a cyclical, capital-intense industry where margins, on average, are not very high. This doesn't mean that NIO does not have long-term upside, but investors should keep in mind that a home run is not guaranteed when investing in NIO or other EV stocks - despite the fact that EV sales are growing quickly.\nNIO Stock Forecast In 5 Years\nNIO will grow its revenues by more than 100% this year, according to most estimates, but growth projections beyond that point are varying a lot more. Looking at 2022, for example, the analyst consensus for NIO's revenues is $8.7 billion, which would reflect a 78% increase versus the consensus for 2021. Estimates are in a wide range, however, as analyst estimates range from $7.3 billion to $11.9 billion in revenue in 2022.\nIn other words, the most bullish estimates see NIO deliver 60% higher revenues than the most bearish estimates. Since these estimates are being made for 2022 - just one year from now - this wide discrepancy shows how hard it is to forecast exact revenue or earnings numbers for a company like NIO.\nFor my estimate for 2025's revenues, I'll go with the analyst consensus for 2022, i.e. $8.7 billion, and then assume that revenues will grow at 1.5x the forecasted overall market growth rate of 27% in 2023, 2024, 2025, and 2026. This would get us to $34 billion in revenue in 2026, i.e. five years from now. Since analysts are currently forecasting that revenue will grow by 110% this year, and by around 80% next year, some readers may argue that a 40% growth rate estimate for 2023-2026 is too conservative. But the major unknowns and uncertainties around competitive pressures, government policies, etc., mean that I think that projecting a higher growth rate for many years in advance might be too optimistic.\nWhat might a $34 billion top line mean for NIO's stock price? Right now, shares are valued at 11.6x this year's expected sales, which is almost perfectly in line with the valuation of XPeng (XPEV), and slightly lower than that of Tesla:\nData by YCharts\nLooking at 2022, we see that shares are valued at around 7x expected revenues right now, whereas XPeng and Tesla trade at 6x and 9x their expected revenues right now. I highly doubt that the average EV company will be trading at high single-digit or even double-digit sales multiples in 2026, as this is just too much of a difference versus the 0.5-2x revenue multiples that legacy auto companies usually trade at. But when we assume that NIO, as an EV pure-play, will still trade at a premium to legacy auto in the middle of the 2020s, a 3x or 4x sales multiple might be a realistic estimate.\nWhen we go with 3.5x our revenue forecast for 2026, that would equate to a market capitalization of 119 billion - about 90% more than NIO's current market capitalization. NIO's share count has not been constant, however, and has, in fact, been rising considerably in the past. When we assume that the share count will rise by another 20% through 2026, to 1.9 billion, then shares would trade at $61 in 2026. This would mean that shares have an upside potential of around 55% over the next five years, or about 9% annually.\nThat is not at all unattractive, but it also isn't an absolutely outstanding return. On top of that, NIO, like many other EV startups, is a company with above-average volatility, above-average risks, and above-average uncertainties. I thus would not call NIO overly attractive at current prices, as the forecasted return is solid, but goes hand in hand with considerable risks/uncertainties. One can, of course, argue that the forecasted growth is too high, or too low, or that the target sales multiple should be different in 2026. As a base case scenario, I feel like this is reasonable, however.\nIs NIO Stock A Buy Now?\nIn retrospect, it is pretty clear that NIO at $10 about a year ago was a great opportunity, and that buying NIO at $67 at the peak earlier this year was a pretty bad decision. NIO today, in the high $30s, is somewhere in between these two extremes. I believe that, for long-term investors, NIO has a good chance of delivering solid returns over the years. At the same time, however, a lot of growth is priced into the stock right now, and it is not possible to forecast what competitors will do over the coming years, how accommodating governments will be to EVs, how well the rollout in Europe and other international markets will go, etc.\nI think NIO is more attractive than many other EV companies today, including many of the EV startups that don't have any viable products yet, and also versus Tesla (which is growing slower and still trades at a higher valuation). I would not be surprised to see NIO's stock deliver solid returns during the 2020s. I don't think that NIO is an absolute no-brainer buy today, however, as NIO still trades at a quite high valuation, for now, even factoring in its strong growth.\nFor those that are enterprising and do not mind the risks and uncertainties around future product launches and international expansion, the stock's volatility, and so on, NIO could be a buy today. But it is not a good choice for everyone, and some may want to watch the EV race from the sidelines instead of putting money at risk at current valuations.\nThe current analyst consensus share price target is $59, but I personally do not think this is realistic in the very near term. Based on expected revenues for 2021, this would put NIO at an 18x sales multiple, which is, I believe, not justified. Over the next five years, however, a share price in that region seems achievable, I believe.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1169,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":119754749,"gmtCreate":1622568930981,"gmtModify":1631892207651,"author":{"id":"3576989268942137","authorId":"3576989268942137","name":"37df2d81","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576989268942137","authorIdStr":"3576989268942137"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"beware","listText":"beware","text":"beware","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/119754749","repostId":"2139589924","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":771,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":110111030,"gmtCreate":1622429915020,"gmtModify":1631892207657,"author":{"id":"3576989268942137","authorId":"3576989268942137","name":"37df2d81","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576989268942137","authorIdStr":"3576989268942137"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"oh snap","listText":"oh snap","text":"oh snap","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/110111030","repostId":"2139438981","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":979,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":344012069,"gmtCreate":1618359798251,"gmtModify":1634293511077,"author":{"id":"3576989268942137","authorId":"3576989268942137","name":"37df2d81","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576989268942137","authorIdStr":"3576989268942137"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"yay Tesla! But hard to gauge when to use my 10% referral code now 😂","listText":"yay Tesla! But hard to gauge when to use my 10% referral code now 😂","text":"yay Tesla! But hard to gauge when to use my 10% referral code now 😂","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":19,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/344012069","repostId":"1130111087","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130111087","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618323084,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1130111087?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-13 22:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will Tesla Be the Next Apple? Here’s How Investors Can Play It<blockquote>特斯拉会成为下一个苹果吗？投资者可以这样玩</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130111087","media":"Barron's","summary":"Tesla’s stock may still have some juice left in it after all.Tesla stock (ticker: TSLA) has understa","content":"<p>Tesla’s&nbsp;stock may still have some juice left in it after all.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的股票毕竟可能还有一些活力。</blockquote></p><p>Tesla stock (ticker: TSLA) has understandably struggled in 2021 after a meteoric 410% rise over the past year, but the shares jumped higher on Monday afteran analyst assertedthat Tesla could be the nextApple(AAPL).</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股票（股票代码：TSLA）在过去一年飙升 410% 后，在 2021 年陷入困境，这是可以理解的，但在分析师断言特斯拉可能成为下一个苹果 (AAPL) 后，该股周一跳高。</blockquote></p><p>When it comes to attracting attention from investors, it’s hard to beat an assertion that likens one of the market’s hottest, most controversial stocks to one of the world’s most admired, innovative companies.</p><p><blockquote>说到吸引投资者的注意力，很难打败这样一种说法：将市场上最热门、最具争议的股票之一比作世界上最受钦佩的创新型公司之一。</blockquote></p><p>But rather than dismissing the Cannacord note as the Wall Street-equivalent of clickbait, investors should instead focus on how the stock behaved in reaction to the assertion: Tesla rose 3.7%, to $701.98, on heavy volume, on Monday, while the broad market was moribund, with theS&amp;P 500 indexfalling slightly.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者不应将 Cannacord 的报告视为华尔街的点击诱饵，而应关注该股对这一说法的反应：特斯拉周一成交量巨大，上涨 3.7%，至 701.98 美元，而大盘则奄奄一息，标准普尔 500 指数小幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p>That reinforces the notion that Tesla’s legions of passionate investors are just looking for a reason to love the stock even more. The Cannacord analyst,Jonathan Dorsheimer, backed up his bold assertion by noting that Tesla is involved in more than just cars, just like Apple does more than just make iPhones.</p><p><blockquote>这强化了这样一种观念，即特斯拉大批热情的投资者只是在寻找一个更加热爱这只股票的理由。Cannacord 分析师 Jonathan Dorsheimer 支持了他的大胆断言，他指出特斯拉涉足的不仅仅是汽车，就像苹果不仅仅是生产 iPhone 一样。</blockquote></p><p>The Apple-like spin is admittedly aggressive, and maybe even a bit aspirational, but such is the nature of Tesla. Investors either believe in the vision of Tesla’s chief executive, Elon Musk, or they don’t. So far, it has paid to be a believer, and the stock’s Monday rally suggests that Tesla’s investors are looking for new reasons to be evangelical.</p><p><blockquote>诚然，苹果式的旋转是咄咄逼人的，甚至可能有点雄心勃勃，但这就是特斯拉的本质。投资者要么相信特斯拉首席执行官埃隆-马斯克的愿景，要么不相信。到目前为止，作为一名信徒已经得到了回报，该股周一的反弹表明，特斯拉的投资者正在寻找新的理由成为福音派。</blockquote></p><p>The reason to believe could come as early as April 26, when Tesla is scheduled to reports first-quarter earnings after the market closes. Should the stock surge, investors can shout hallelujah. Should the stock stumble, look for a baptism by fire.</p><p><blockquote>人们有理由相信，最早可能在 4 月 26 日，届时特斯拉将在收盘后公布第一季度收益。如果股市飙升，投资者可以大喊哈利路亚。如果股票下跌，请寻求火的洗礼。</blockquote></p><p>With Tesla’s stock around $725, aggressive investors could consider buying Tesla’s April $735call optionsthat expire April 30 for $37.50.</p><p><blockquote>由于特斯拉的股价在 725 美元左右，激进的投资者可以考虑以 37.50 美元的价格购买特斯拉 4 月份到期的 735 美元看涨期权，该期权将于 4 月 30 日到期。</blockquote></p><p>If the stock is at $800, the call is worth $65. Should the stock be below the strike price at expiration, the trade fails, though the call could be adjusted within the options market to keep it alive.</p><p><blockquote>如果股票价格为 800 美元，则看涨期权价值 65 美元。如果股票到期时低于执行价格，交易就会失败，尽管可以在期权市场内调整看涨期权以保持其活力。</blockquote></p><p>During the past 52 weeks, Tesla stock has ranged from $134.76 to $900.40. So far this year, the stock is up about 3%, compared with a gain of 10% for the S&amp;P 500.</p><p><blockquote>过去 52 周内，特斯拉股价在 134.76 美元至 900.40 美元之间波动。今年到目前为止，该股上涨了约 3%，而标普500上涨了 10%。</blockquote></p><p>The last time we mentioned Tesla was in early April, just before the company reported first-quarter vehicle deliveries.</p><p><blockquote>我们上次提到特斯拉是在 4 月初，就在该公司报告第一季度汽车交付量之前。</blockquote></p><p>We then suggested that investors sell Tesla’s May $500 or May $550 put options to trade delivery data when the stock was around $661.75. So far, the trade has worked well. The May $500 puts are trading at $3.50, down from $11, and the May $550 puts are trading at $6.85, down from $20.</p><p><blockquote>然后，我们建议投资者在特斯拉股价约为 661.75 美元时卖出 5 月份 500 美元或 5 月份 550 美元的看跌期权，以交易交割数据。到目前为止，交易进展顺利。5 月份 500 美元看跌期权的交易价格为 3.50 美元，低于 11 美元；5 月份 550 美元看跌期权的交易价格为 6.85 美元，低于 20 美元。</blockquote></p><p>Securing profits is largely a matter of discipline. Some investors will secure profits with gains of 70% on the puts, others will go for 90%. Still others will hold the puts until expiration because they are content acquiring the stock at the put strike price.</p><p><blockquote>确保利润在很大程度上是一个纪律问题。一些投资者将获得70%的看跌期权收益，其他人将获得90%的收益。还有一些人会持有看跌期权直到到期，因为他们满足于以看跌期权执行价格购买股票。</blockquote></p><p>Regardless of which side of the options market appeals to you, Tesla’s earnings should be a key event, and the sell-side analysts are likely to have more salacious comments to make.</p><p><blockquote>无论你对期权市场的哪一方有吸引力，特斯拉的财报都应该是一个关键事件，卖方分析师可能会发表更多淫秽言论。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b504372ddc29af9073294012532cc819\" tg-width=\"659\" tg-height=\"564\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will Tesla Be the Next Apple? Here’s How Investors Can Play It<blockquote>特斯拉会成为下一个苹果吗？投资者可以这样玩</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill Tesla Be the Next Apple? Here’s How Investors Can Play It<blockquote>特斯拉会成为下一个苹果吗？投资者可以这样玩</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-13 22:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tesla’s&nbsp;stock may still have some juice left in it after all.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的股票毕竟可能还有一些活力。</blockquote></p><p>Tesla stock (ticker: TSLA) has understandably struggled in 2021 after a meteoric 410% rise over the past year, but the shares jumped higher on Monday afteran analyst assertedthat Tesla could be the nextApple(AAPL).</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股票（股票代码：TSLA）在过去一年飙升 410% 后，在 2021 年陷入困境，这是可以理解的，但在分析师断言特斯拉可能成为下一个苹果 (AAPL) 后，该股周一跳高。</blockquote></p><p>When it comes to attracting attention from investors, it’s hard to beat an assertion that likens one of the market’s hottest, most controversial stocks to one of the world’s most admired, innovative companies.</p><p><blockquote>说到吸引投资者的注意力，很难打败这样一种说法：将市场上最热门、最具争议的股票之一比作世界上最受钦佩的创新型公司之一。</blockquote></p><p>But rather than dismissing the Cannacord note as the Wall Street-equivalent of clickbait, investors should instead focus on how the stock behaved in reaction to the assertion: Tesla rose 3.7%, to $701.98, on heavy volume, on Monday, while the broad market was moribund, with theS&amp;P 500 indexfalling slightly.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者不应将 Cannacord 的报告视为华尔街的点击诱饵，而应关注该股对这一说法的反应：特斯拉周一成交量巨大，上涨 3.7%，至 701.98 美元，而大盘则奄奄一息，标准普尔 500 指数小幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p>That reinforces the notion that Tesla’s legions of passionate investors are just looking for a reason to love the stock even more. The Cannacord analyst,Jonathan Dorsheimer, backed up his bold assertion by noting that Tesla is involved in more than just cars, just like Apple does more than just make iPhones.</p><p><blockquote>这强化了这样一种观念，即特斯拉大批热情的投资者只是在寻找一个更加热爱这只股票的理由。Cannacord 分析师 Jonathan Dorsheimer 支持了他的大胆断言，他指出特斯拉涉足的不仅仅是汽车，就像苹果不仅仅是生产 iPhone 一样。</blockquote></p><p>The Apple-like spin is admittedly aggressive, and maybe even a bit aspirational, but such is the nature of Tesla. Investors either believe in the vision of Tesla’s chief executive, Elon Musk, or they don’t. So far, it has paid to be a believer, and the stock’s Monday rally suggests that Tesla’s investors are looking for new reasons to be evangelical.</p><p><blockquote>诚然，苹果式的旋转是咄咄逼人的，甚至可能有点雄心勃勃，但这就是特斯拉的本质。投资者要么相信特斯拉首席执行官埃隆-马斯克的愿景，要么不相信。到目前为止，作为一名信徒已经得到了回报，该股周一的反弹表明，特斯拉的投资者正在寻找新的理由成为福音派。</blockquote></p><p>The reason to believe could come as early as April 26, when Tesla is scheduled to reports first-quarter earnings after the market closes. Should the stock surge, investors can shout hallelujah. Should the stock stumble, look for a baptism by fire.</p><p><blockquote>人们有理由相信，最早可能在 4 月 26 日，届时特斯拉将在收盘后公布第一季度收益。如果股市飙升，投资者可以大喊哈利路亚。如果股票下跌，请寻求火的洗礼。</blockquote></p><p>With Tesla’s stock around $725, aggressive investors could consider buying Tesla’s April $735call optionsthat expire April 30 for $37.50.</p><p><blockquote>由于特斯拉的股价在 725 美元左右，激进的投资者可以考虑以 37.50 美元的价格购买特斯拉 4 月份到期的 735 美元看涨期权，该期权将于 4 月 30 日到期。</blockquote></p><p>If the stock is at $800, the call is worth $65. Should the stock be below the strike price at expiration, the trade fails, though the call could be adjusted within the options market to keep it alive.</p><p><blockquote>如果股票价格为 800 美元，则看涨期权价值 65 美元。如果股票到期时低于执行价格，交易就会失败，尽管可以在期权市场内调整看涨期权以保持其活力。</blockquote></p><p>During the past 52 weeks, Tesla stock has ranged from $134.76 to $900.40. So far this year, the stock is up about 3%, compared with a gain of 10% for the S&amp;P 500.</p><p><blockquote>过去 52 周内，特斯拉股价在 134.76 美元至 900.40 美元之间波动。今年到目前为止，该股上涨了约 3%，而标普500上涨了 10%。</blockquote></p><p>The last time we mentioned Tesla was in early April, just before the company reported first-quarter vehicle deliveries.</p><p><blockquote>我们上次提到特斯拉是在 4 月初，就在该公司报告第一季度汽车交付量之前。</blockquote></p><p>We then suggested that investors sell Tesla’s May $500 or May $550 put options to trade delivery data when the stock was around $661.75. So far, the trade has worked well. The May $500 puts are trading at $3.50, down from $11, and the May $550 puts are trading at $6.85, down from $20.</p><p><blockquote>然后，我们建议投资者在特斯拉股价约为 661.75 美元时卖出 5 月份 500 美元或 5 月份 550 美元的看跌期权，以交易交割数据。到目前为止，交易进展顺利。5 月份 500 美元看跌期权的交易价格为 3.50 美元，低于 11 美元；5 月份 550 美元看跌期权的交易价格为 6.85 美元，低于 20 美元。</blockquote></p><p>Securing profits is largely a matter of discipline. Some investors will secure profits with gains of 70% on the puts, others will go for 90%. Still others will hold the puts until expiration because they are content acquiring the stock at the put strike price.</p><p><blockquote>确保利润在很大程度上是一个纪律问题。一些投资者将获得70%的看跌期权收益，其他人将获得90%的收益。还有一些人会持有看跌期权直到到期，因为他们满足于以看跌期权执行价格购买股票。</blockquote></p><p>Regardless of which side of the options market appeals to you, Tesla’s earnings should be a key event, and the sell-side analysts are likely to have more salacious comments to make.</p><p><blockquote>无论你对期权市场的哪一方有吸引力，特斯拉的财报都应该是一个关键事件，卖方分析师可能会发表更多淫秽言论。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b504372ddc29af9073294012532cc819\" tg-width=\"659\" tg-height=\"564\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/will-tesla-be-the-next-apple-heres-how-investors-can-play-it-51618322770?mod=mw_latestnews\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/will-tesla-be-the-next-apple-heres-how-investors-can-play-it-51618322770?mod=mw_latestnews","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130111087","content_text":"Tesla’s stock may still have some juice left in it after all.Tesla stock (ticker: TSLA) has understandably struggled in 2021 after a meteoric 410% rise over the past year, but the shares jumped higher on Monday afteran analyst assertedthat Tesla could be the nextApple(AAPL).When it comes to attracting attention from investors, it’s hard to beat an assertion that likens one of the market’s hottest, most controversial stocks to one of the world’s most admired, innovative companies.But rather than dismissing the Cannacord note as the Wall Street-equivalent of clickbait, investors should instead focus on how the stock behaved in reaction to the assertion: Tesla rose 3.7%, to $701.98, on heavy volume, on Monday, while the broad market was moribund, with theS&P 500 indexfalling slightly.That reinforces the notion that Tesla’s legions of passionate investors are just looking for a reason to love the stock even more. The Cannacord analyst,Jonathan Dorsheimer, backed up his bold assertion by noting that Tesla is involved in more than just cars, just like Apple does more than just make iPhones.The Apple-like spin is admittedly aggressive, and maybe even a bit aspirational, but such is the nature of Tesla. Investors either believe in the vision of Tesla’s chief executive, Elon Musk, or they don’t. So far, it has paid to be a believer, and the stock’s Monday rally suggests that Tesla’s investors are looking for new reasons to be evangelical.The reason to believe could come as early as April 26, when Tesla is scheduled to reports first-quarter earnings after the market closes. Should the stock surge, investors can shout hallelujah. Should the stock stumble, look for a baptism by fire.With Tesla’s stock around $725, aggressive investors could consider buying Tesla’s April $735call optionsthat expire April 30 for $37.50.If the stock is at $800, the call is worth $65. Should the stock be below the strike price at expiration, the trade fails, though the call could be adjusted within the options market to keep it alive.During the past 52 weeks, Tesla stock has ranged from $134.76 to $900.40. So far this year, the stock is up about 3%, compared with a gain of 10% for the S&P 500.The last time we mentioned Tesla was in early April, just before the company reported first-quarter vehicle deliveries.We then suggested that investors sell Tesla’s May $500 or May $550 put options to trade delivery data when the stock was around $661.75. So far, the trade has worked well. The May $500 puts are trading at $3.50, down from $11, and the May $550 puts are trading at $6.85, down from $20.Securing profits is largely a matter of discipline. Some investors will secure profits with gains of 70% on the puts, others will go for 90%. Still others will hold the puts until expiration because they are content acquiring the stock at the put strike price.Regardless of which side of the options market appeals to you, Tesla’s earnings should be a key event, and the sell-side analysts are likely to have more salacious comments to make.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":859,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":375513576,"gmtCreate":1619360505995,"gmtModify":1634274021213,"author":{"id":"3576989268942137","authorId":"3576989268942137","name":"37df2d81","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576989268942137","authorIdStr":"3576989268942137"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"add to watchlist&nbsp;","listText":"add to watchlist&nbsp;","text":"add to watchlist","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":10,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375513576","repostId":"2129359566","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":778,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":114649492,"gmtCreate":1623073765616,"gmtModify":1631892207636,"author":{"id":"3576989268942137","authorId":"3576989268942137","name":"37df2d81","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576989268942137","authorIdStr":"3576989268942137"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"oo","listText":"oo","text":"oo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/114649492","repostId":"1122556332","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1568,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":110111030,"gmtCreate":1622429915020,"gmtModify":1631892207657,"author":{"id":"3576989268942137","authorId":"3576989268942137","name":"37df2d81","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576989268942137","authorIdStr":"3576989268942137"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"oh snap","listText":"oh snap","text":"oh snap","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/110111030","repostId":"2139438981","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":979,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":347594734,"gmtCreate":1618500139928,"gmtModify":1634292476410,"author":{"id":"3576989268942137","authorId":"3576989268942137","name":"37df2d81","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576989268942137","authorIdStr":"3576989268942137"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"dum dum dummmmmm","listText":"dum dum dummmmmm","text":"dum dum dummmmmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/347594734","repostId":"1153108819","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":616,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":192892464,"gmtCreate":1621173287758,"gmtModify":1634193597823,"author":{"id":"3576989268942137","authorId":"3576989268942137","name":"37df2d81","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576989268942137","authorIdStr":"3576989268942137"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[Serious]&nbsp;","listText":"[Serious]&nbsp;","text":"[Serious]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/192892464","repostId":"1185220705","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":693,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":355094484,"gmtCreate":1617011304948,"gmtModify":1634523153867,"author":{"id":"3576989268942137","authorId":"3576989268942137","name":"37df2d81","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576989268942137","authorIdStr":"3576989268942137"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Time to buy more Tesla 🧐","listText":"Time to buy more Tesla 🧐","text":"Time to buy more Tesla 🧐","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/355094484","repostId":"1111192234","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111192234","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616772179,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1111192234?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-26 23:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Deliveries Are Coming. They Matter More Than Ever. Here’s What to Expect.<blockquote>特斯拉快递来了。它们比以往任何时候都更重要。以下是可以期待的。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111192234","media":"Barrons","summary":"The first quarter ends in just a few days. That means more delivery data from auto makers is due. For investors, the figures will be higher stakes than usual. The reason is simple: The global automotive microchip shortage is roiling the entire car business.Numbers will matter even more for richly valued, high-growth companies such as Tesla. Tesla investors want growth, and the chip situation is squeezing growth. Both General Motors and Ford Motor have taken unexpected plant downtime recently and","content":"<p>The first quarter ends in just a few days. That means more delivery data from auto makers is due. For investors, the figures will be higher stakes than usual. The reason is simple: The global automotive microchip shortage is roiling the entire car business.</p><p><blockquote>第一季度还有几天就结束了。这意味着汽车制造商将提供更多交付数据。对于投资者来说，这些数字将比平时更高。原因很简单：全球汽车微芯片短缺正在扰乱整个汽车行业。</blockquote></p><p> Numbers will matter even more for richly valued, high-growth companies such as&nbsp;Tesla(ticker: TSLA). Tesla investors want growth, and the chip situation is squeezing growth. Both&nbsp;General Motors(GM) and&nbsp;Ford Motor(F) have taken unexpected plant downtime recently and have called the chip issue a billion-dollar profit headwind for 2021. That’s not what investors want to hear.</p><p><blockquote>对于特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）等高估值、高增长的公司来说，数字将更加重要。特斯拉投资者想要增长，而芯片形势正在挤压增长。通用汽车 (GM) 和福特汽车 (F) 最近都意外停工，并称芯片问题是 2021 年数十亿美元的利润阻力。这不是投资者想听到的。</blockquote></p><p> Everyone is aware of the issue. Still, when first-quarter data is released, investors have to decide whether or not to give Tesla, or any other fast-growing EV maker, a pass if results are weaker than expected.</p><p><blockquote>每个人都意识到这个问题。尽管如此，当第一季度数据公布时，如果业绩弱于预期，投资者必须决定是否给予特斯拉或任何其他快速增长的电动汽车制造商通行证。</blockquote></p><p> So far the market isn’t feeling charitable. But the sample size is only one stock.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，市场并不乐观。但样本量只有一只股票。</blockquote></p><p> NIO&nbsp;shares (NIO) are down more than 6% in Friday trading after the EV maker&nbsp;reduced guidance&nbsp;for first-quarter deliveries from about 20,250 cars to about 19,500. NIO management cited the chip shortage and is shutting a manufacturing plant for five days starting March 29.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（蔚来）股价在周五交易中下跌超过 6%，此前这家电动汽车制造商将第一季度交付量指引从约 20,250 辆下调至约 19,500 辆。蔚来管理层以芯片短缺为由，将从 3 月 29 日开始关闭一家制造工厂五天。</blockquote></p><p> For Tesla, Wall Street is looking for about 162,000 vehicles delivered in March. That’s down from a peak estimate of about 183,000 vehicles. Analysts seem to be reducing numbers, possibly because of the shortage.</p><p><blockquote>对于特斯拉来说，华尔街正在寻找 3 月份交付的约 162,000 辆汽车。这低于最高估计的约 18.3 万辆汽车。分析师似乎正在减少数字，可能是因为短缺。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla delivered about 181,000 vehicles in the&nbsp;fourth quarter. For the full year 2021, analysts are looking for almost 800,000 vehicle deliveries, up about 60% year over year.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉第四季度交付了约 181,000 辆汽车。对于 2021 年全年，分析师预计将交付近 80 万辆汽车，同比增长约 60%。</blockquote></p><p> RBC analyst&nbsp;Joe Spak&nbsp;is forecasting 170,000 first-quarter deliveries, up more than 90% year over year. He also forecasts Tesla will make 96,000 cars in California and 74,000 cars in China during the quarter. “Consensus [estimate] looks mostly reasonable,” wrote Spak in a Thursday report. “We do look for updates to see how the semi shortage is impacting&nbsp;Tesla—as it has the rest of the industry.” He sees some additional downside risk to estimates, especially for second-quarter numbers, because of chips.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大皇家银行分析师乔·斯帕克 (Joe Spak) 预测第一季度交付量为 170,000 辆，同比增长 90% 以上。他还预测，特斯拉本季度将在加州生产 96,000 辆汽车，在华生产 74,000 辆汽车。“Spak在周四的一份报告中写道：”共识[估计]看起来大多是合理的。“我们确实在寻找最新消息，看看半短缺对特斯拉的影响--就像对整个行业的影响一样。”他认为，由于芯片的影响，预测存在一些额外的下行风险，尤其是第二季度的数据。</blockquote></p><p> Spak rates Tesla stock Hold and has a $725 price target for shares.</p><p><blockquote>Spak 将特斯拉股票评级为持有，目标股价为 725 美元。</blockquote></p><p> In the case of Tesla stock, the chip shortage has taken a back seat to rising interest rates. Rising rateshit growth stocksin two main ways. For starters, it makes growth more expensive to finance. NIO isn’t profitable yet. High-growth companies generate most of their cash flow far in the future. That cash flow is worth a little less, relatively speaking, when investors can earn higher interest rates on their cash today.</p><p><blockquote>就特斯拉股票而言，芯片短缺已经让位于利率上升。增长率上升主要有两种方式。首先，这使得增长的融资成本更高。蔚来尚未盈利。高增长公司的大部分现金流是在未来很长一段时间内产生的。相对而言，当投资者今天可以从现金中获得更高的利率时，这种现金流的价值就会降低一些。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla stock is down roughly 10% year to date after rising more than 740% in 2020. Shares are down 0.9% in early Friday trading, at $634.40. The&nbsp;S&amp;P 500is up about 0.7%.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价在 2020 年上涨超过 740% 后，今年迄今已下跌约 10%。周五早盘交易中，股价下跌 0.9%，至 634.40 美元。标准普尔500指数上涨约0.7%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Deliveries Are Coming. They Matter More Than Ever. Here’s What to Expect.<blockquote>特斯拉快递来了。它们比以往任何时候都更重要。以下是可以期待的。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Deliveries Are Coming. They Matter More Than Ever. Here’s What to Expect.<blockquote>特斯拉快递来了。它们比以往任何时候都更重要。以下是可以期待的。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-26 23:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The first quarter ends in just a few days. That means more delivery data from auto makers is due. For investors, the figures will be higher stakes than usual. The reason is simple: The global automotive microchip shortage is roiling the entire car business.</p><p><blockquote>第一季度还有几天就结束了。这意味着汽车制造商将提供更多交付数据。对于投资者来说，这些数字将比平时更高。原因很简单：全球汽车微芯片短缺正在扰乱整个汽车行业。</blockquote></p><p> Numbers will matter even more for richly valued, high-growth companies such as&nbsp;Tesla(ticker: TSLA). Tesla investors want growth, and the chip situation is squeezing growth. Both&nbsp;General Motors(GM) and&nbsp;Ford Motor(F) have taken unexpected plant downtime recently and have called the chip issue a billion-dollar profit headwind for 2021. That’s not what investors want to hear.</p><p><blockquote>对于特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）等高估值、高增长的公司来说，数字将更加重要。特斯拉投资者想要增长，而芯片形势正在挤压增长。通用汽车 (GM) 和福特汽车 (F) 最近都意外停工，并称芯片问题是 2021 年数十亿美元的利润阻力。这不是投资者想听到的。</blockquote></p><p> Everyone is aware of the issue. Still, when first-quarter data is released, investors have to decide whether or not to give Tesla, or any other fast-growing EV maker, a pass if results are weaker than expected.</p><p><blockquote>每个人都意识到这个问题。尽管如此，当第一季度数据公布时，如果业绩弱于预期，投资者必须决定是否给予特斯拉或任何其他快速增长的电动汽车制造商通行证。</blockquote></p><p> So far the market isn’t feeling charitable. But the sample size is only one stock.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，市场并不乐观。但样本量只有一只股票。</blockquote></p><p> NIO&nbsp;shares (NIO) are down more than 6% in Friday trading after the EV maker&nbsp;reduced guidance&nbsp;for first-quarter deliveries from about 20,250 cars to about 19,500. NIO management cited the chip shortage and is shutting a manufacturing plant for five days starting March 29.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（蔚来）股价在周五交易中下跌超过 6%，此前这家电动汽车制造商将第一季度交付量指引从约 20,250 辆下调至约 19,500 辆。蔚来管理层以芯片短缺为由，将从 3 月 29 日开始关闭一家制造工厂五天。</blockquote></p><p> For Tesla, Wall Street is looking for about 162,000 vehicles delivered in March. That’s down from a peak estimate of about 183,000 vehicles. Analysts seem to be reducing numbers, possibly because of the shortage.</p><p><blockquote>对于特斯拉来说，华尔街正在寻找 3 月份交付的约 162,000 辆汽车。这低于最高估计的约 18.3 万辆汽车。分析师似乎正在减少数字，可能是因为短缺。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla delivered about 181,000 vehicles in the&nbsp;fourth quarter. For the full year 2021, analysts are looking for almost 800,000 vehicle deliveries, up about 60% year over year.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉第四季度交付了约 181,000 辆汽车。对于 2021 年全年，分析师预计将交付近 80 万辆汽车，同比增长约 60%。</blockquote></p><p> RBC analyst&nbsp;Joe Spak&nbsp;is forecasting 170,000 first-quarter deliveries, up more than 90% year over year. He also forecasts Tesla will make 96,000 cars in California and 74,000 cars in China during the quarter. “Consensus [estimate] looks mostly reasonable,” wrote Spak in a Thursday report. “We do look for updates to see how the semi shortage is impacting&nbsp;Tesla—as it has the rest of the industry.” He sees some additional downside risk to estimates, especially for second-quarter numbers, because of chips.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大皇家银行分析师乔·斯帕克 (Joe Spak) 预测第一季度交付量为 170,000 辆，同比增长 90% 以上。他还预测，特斯拉本季度将在加州生产 96,000 辆汽车，在华生产 74,000 辆汽车。“Spak在周四的一份报告中写道：”共识[估计]看起来大多是合理的。“我们确实在寻找最新消息，看看半短缺对特斯拉的影响--就像对整个行业的影响一样。”他认为，由于芯片的影响，预测存在一些额外的下行风险，尤其是第二季度的数据。</blockquote></p><p> Spak rates Tesla stock Hold and has a $725 price target for shares.</p><p><blockquote>Spak 将特斯拉股票评级为持有，目标股价为 725 美元。</blockquote></p><p> In the case of Tesla stock, the chip shortage has taken a back seat to rising interest rates. Rising rateshit growth stocksin two main ways. For starters, it makes growth more expensive to finance. NIO isn’t profitable yet. High-growth companies generate most of their cash flow far in the future. That cash flow is worth a little less, relatively speaking, when investors can earn higher interest rates on their cash today.</p><p><blockquote>就特斯拉股票而言，芯片短缺已经让位于利率上升。增长率上升主要有两种方式。首先，这使得增长的融资成本更高。蔚来尚未盈利。高增长公司的大部分现金流是在未来很长一段时间内产生的。相对而言，当投资者今天可以从现金中获得更高的利率时，这种现金流的价值就会降低一些。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla stock is down roughly 10% year to date after rising more than 740% in 2020. Shares are down 0.9% in early Friday trading, at $634.40. The&nbsp;S&amp;P 500is up about 0.7%.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价在 2020 年上涨超过 740% 后，今年迄今已下跌约 10%。周五早盘交易中，股价下跌 0.9%，至 634.40 美元。标准普尔500指数上涨约0.7%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-deliveries-are-coming-they-matter-more-than-ever-heres-what-to-expect-51616769819?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_1_3\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-deliveries-are-coming-they-matter-more-than-ever-heres-what-to-expect-51616769819?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_1_3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111192234","content_text":"The first quarter ends in just a few days. That means more delivery data from auto makers is due. For investors, the figures will be higher stakes than usual. The reason is simple: The global automotive microchip shortage is roiling the entire car business.\nNumbers will matter even more for richly valued, high-growth companies such as Tesla(ticker: TSLA). Tesla investors want growth, and the chip situation is squeezing growth. Both General Motors(GM) and Ford Motor(F) have taken unexpected plant downtime recently and have called the chip issue a billion-dollar profit headwind for 2021. That’s not what investors want to hear.\nEveryone is aware of the issue. Still, when first-quarter data is released, investors have to decide whether or not to give Tesla, or any other fast-growing EV maker, a pass if results are weaker than expected.\nSo far the market isn’t feeling charitable. But the sample size is only one stock.\nNIO shares (NIO) are down more than 6% in Friday trading after the EV maker reduced guidance for first-quarter deliveries from about 20,250 cars to about 19,500. NIO management cited the chip shortage and is shutting a manufacturing plant for five days starting March 29.\nFor Tesla, Wall Street is looking for about 162,000 vehicles delivered in March. That’s down from a peak estimate of about 183,000 vehicles. Analysts seem to be reducing numbers, possibly because of the shortage.\nTesla delivered about 181,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter. For the full year 2021, analysts are looking for almost 800,000 vehicle deliveries, up about 60% year over year.\nRBC analyst Joe Spak is forecasting 170,000 first-quarter deliveries, up more than 90% year over year. He also forecasts Tesla will make 96,000 cars in California and 74,000 cars in China during the quarter. “Consensus [estimate] looks mostly reasonable,” wrote Spak in a Thursday report. “We do look for updates to see how the semi shortage is impacting Tesla—as it has the rest of the industry.” He sees some additional downside risk to estimates, especially for second-quarter numbers, because of chips.\nSpak rates Tesla stock Hold and has a $725 price target for shares.\nIn the case of Tesla stock, the chip shortage has taken a back seat to rising interest rates. Rising rateshit growth stocksin two main ways. For starters, it makes growth more expensive to finance. NIO isn’t profitable yet. High-growth companies generate most of their cash flow far in the future. That cash flow is worth a little less, relatively speaking, when investors can earn higher interest rates on their cash today.\nTesla stock is down roughly 10% year to date after rising more than 740% in 2020. Shares are down 0.9% in early Friday trading, at $634.40. The S&P 500is up about 0.7%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1168,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":343112556,"gmtCreate":1617688709975,"gmtModify":1634297092483,"author":{"id":"3576989268942137","authorId":"3576989268942137","name":"37df2d81","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576989268942137","authorIdStr":"3576989268942137"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ooo","listText":"Ooo","text":"Ooo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/343112556","repostId":"1188128799","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":565,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186480295,"gmtCreate":1623521496617,"gmtModify":1631889894948,"author":{"id":"3576989268942137","authorId":"3576989268942137","name":"37df2d81","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576989268942137","authorIdStr":"3576989268942137"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ooo","listText":"ooo","text":"ooo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186480295","repostId":"2142204074","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2305,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":189195945,"gmtCreate":1623247307787,"gmtModify":1631892207633,"author":{"id":"3576989268942137","authorId":"3576989268942137","name":"37df2d81","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576989268942137","authorIdStr":"3576989268942137"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[Cool]&nbsp;","listText":"[Cool]&nbsp;","text":"[Cool]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/189195945","repostId":"1108979879","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":953,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}