乐_0966的个人主页 - 老虎社区

乐_0966

乐_0966

个人简介：shi yai

IP属地：未知

132关注

20粉丝

2主题

0勋章

2021-07-06

$国美零售(00493)$ what??? Super drama

2021-06-03

写的不错，涨的不够啊

中芯国际(00981)先进及成熟制程皆超预期，全年业绩或超指引

2021-05-27

不怎么那么看好这间公司，股价太泡沫了

美团盘中跳水跌5%，将于明日放榜一季度业绩

2021-05-23

伟大的人

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-05-21

阿弥托佛，施主醒个好吧，善哉善哉

2021-05-19

什么是做空啊

特斯拉要凉凉了？08年大空头大举做空特斯拉

2021-05-19

$新加坡航空公司(C6L.SI)$come on

2021-05-19

看好

腾讯音乐：反攻的号角还不够响亮

2021-05-18

$新加坡航空公司(C6L.SI)$ get it up

2021-05-16

$新加坡航空公司(C6L.SI)$ siai liao

2021-05-15

$中环球船务(SINO)$ 持续跌啊

2021-05-13

$国美零售(00493)$黄总都在干嘛呢

2021-05-13

中国必胜！中芯必将赢头赶上！

突破瓶颈，中国芯开启超车道速度，增加核心竞争优势

2021-05-08

$中环球船务(SINO)$would thid will surge next wek

2021-05-07

$中环球船务(SINO)$ when can surge haa

2021-05-07

$未来金融科技(FTFT)$amitofo

2021-05-03

$国美零售(00493)$ 还让人活吗

2021-04-30

$未来金融科技(FTFT)$ surge today

2021-04-28

$国美零售(00493)$ 真瞎

2021-04-23

$新加坡航空公司(C6L.SI)$ hope today up up up

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{color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n中芯国际(00981)先进及成熟制程皆超预期，全年业绩或超指引\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-31 16:18 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202105311630277c0e35b7&s=b><strong>兴业证券</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>营收与毛利率均超指引，利用率及ASP提升助推公司业绩强劲增长。21Q1业绩：收入11.0亿美元，环比+12.5%(指引+7%-9%)，同比+22.0%，主要由于晶圆付运量增加及平均售价上升所致。月产能达54万片/月(8寸当量)，环比+3.8%。产能利用率达98.7%，环比+3.2ppts。毛利率22.7%(指引17%-19%)，环比+4.7ppts，同比-3.1ppts。经营开支环比-21.3%，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202105311630277c0e35b7&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95a52bac654e212de5e6a737e01fc5ff","relate_stocks":{"688981":"中芯国际","SMI":"VanEck HIP Sustainable Muni ETF","00981":"中芯国际"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202105311630277c0e35b7&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2139432634","content_text":"营收与毛利率均超指引，利用率及ASP提升助推公司业绩强劲增长。21Q1业绩：收入11.0亿美元，环比+12.5%(指引+7%-9%)，同比+22.0%，主要由于晶圆付运量增加及平均售价上升所致。月产能达54万片/月(8寸当量)，环比+3.8%。产能利用率达98.7%，环比+3.2ppts。毛利率22.7%(指引17%-19%)，环比+4.7ppts，同比-3.1ppts。经营开支环比-21.3%，主要因研发活动、政府税金和计提雇员奖金减少。先进制程经过波谷后环比增长，成熟制程供不应求将持续到年底。14/28nm先进制程本季营收占比6.9%(同比-0.9ppts，环比+1.9ppts)，NTO稳步导入，但先进制程对盈利压力仍长期存在。成熟制程需求旺盛，本季摄像头、特殊存储、电源管理芯片合计营收环比+20%，150nm/180nm的高压驱动芯片营收环比翻倍。本季北美及欧亚地区营收同比+24%/+47.7%，反映出行业产能紧俏下公司仍持续收到海外大客户投片。公司预计成熟制程到年底持续满载，维持今年1万片12寸扩产及不低于4.5万片的8寸扩产目标。此外公司3月在深圳签署合作协议，4万片12寸产线可能受实体清单影响设备就位延迟，预计22年量产。二季度指引积极，全年业绩或好于预期。2Q21指引：收入环比增长17%-19%，指引中值为13亿美元；毛利率25%-27%，中值环比+3.3ppts。2021年指引：公司预计全年收入和毛利率将超过2月的预期，但谨慎起见并不修正指引，预计21H1收入24亿美元，全年收入中到高个位数增长，全年毛利率目标10%-20%的中部。资本开支预计为43亿，其中大部分用于成熟制程的扩产，小部分用于先进工艺、北京合资项目土建及其他，预计全年折旧20亿美元，EBITDA23亿美元。投资建议：本季度公司先进与成熟制程表现皆超指引，同时公司21年资本开支规划维持高位反映行业景气度延续以及公司获得成熟制程设备许可的确定提升，我们判断公司全年业绩有望超指引。我们预测公司21/22年的净资产将达到每股2.02/2.06美元。我们根据2021年预测每股净资产给予2倍PB，维持目标价31.37港元，维持“审慎增持”评级。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":694,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":132273096,"gmtCreate":1622095307815,"gmtModify":1631885394394,"author":{"id":"3576788794749777","authorId":"3576788794749777","name":"乐_0966","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb3170d3f962d89ccf7eaf81f69dce1b","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"不怎么那么看好这间公司，股价太泡沫了","listText":"不怎么那么看好这间公司，股价太泡沫了","text":"不怎么那么看好这间公司，股价太泡沫了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/132273096","repostId":"1188434377","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188434377","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1622083378,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1188434377?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-27 10:42","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"美团盘中跳水跌5%，将于明日放榜一季度业绩","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188434377","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"5月27日讯，美团盘中跳水，现跌超5%，报265.4港元。美团将于明日公布一季度业绩。中信证券发表报告表示，预测美团(3690.HK)今年首季核心指标为外卖日均订单量按年增长112%、变现率14.4%","content":"<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f5455ae1d461b7af843d57961ae7c0\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">5月27日讯，美团盘中跳水，现跌超5%，报265.4港元。美团将于明日公布一季度业绩。</p><p>中信证券发表报告表示，预测美团(3690.HK)今年首季核心指标为外卖日均订单量按年增长112%、变现率14.4%，相关业务经调整营运毛利率为4.5%，按年上升5.2个百分点；料美团首季到店、酒旅业务收入按年增长104%、相关业务经调整毛利率为38%，按年上升16个百分点；该行预计美团今年首季新业务经调整营运亏损为85.9亿元人民币，按季亏损加大主因社区团购业务投入期亏损随单量规模提升而扩大。</p><p>该行估预计美团今年首季总体经调整营运亏损56.3亿元人民币，预计公司财报呈现核心业务延续强劲表现+社区团购亏损阶段性加大的总体表现，该行认为内地反垄断审查、社保推进等问题影响可控，维持持续看好观点及“买入”评级，及目标价414.4港元。</p><p>中信证券指，根据草根调研汇总，今年首季重点跟踪的内地7家头部社区团购平台的交易规模约为430亿人民币，整体日均件单量已超过5,600万；其中预计首季美团优选平台GMV约120亿人民币，日均件数超1,850万单，交易规模和市占率方面继续领跑行业；同一梯队的拼多多(PDD.US)旗下多多买菜紧随其後，竞争层面并未拉开太大差距，区域格局继续分化。该行指是竞争虽造成短期资本重投入，但平台积累的规模优势和经营杠杆正在逐步兑现，未来几个季度平台整体履约成本的边际改善值得期待。该行预计美团优选首季业务营运毛利率为负30%，料相关亏损额约60亿元人民币。</p><p>该行指，近期美团和阿里巴巴(9988.HK)旗下饿了么均将原本针对商户的一揽子收费模式进行了佣金和配送费分离，即将原本约20%的商户抽佣率拆分成为技术服务费+履约服务费，技术服务费的佣金比例为5.8%至6%，保底金额1.04元人民币(20元人民币以下订单)。履约服务费按照不同距离、价格和时段进行阶梯式计费。平台费率更趋透明化，长看利好配送效率提升。直观来看，根据该行对单均20至150元人民币不等的订单按照精细化计费方式进行比较，该行认为新佣金模式对外卖整体变现率影响并不大。</p><p>中信证券认为，推行新政策对原本商家的计费方式进行更透明化的处理，一方面明确了美团作为技术驱动的互联网公司，在平台上交易按比率向商户收取固定的技术服务费；同时履约服务费更加清晰地呈现了骑手成本，将配送的选择权交给商家，并帮助骑手多劳多得。从订单趋势上判断，新的佣金政策或鼓励外卖商户缩小配送半径，3公里内的外卖变得更加集中将有助平台整体的配送效率更加优化。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美团盘中跳水跌5%，将于明日放榜一季度业绩\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-05-27 10:42</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f5455ae1d461b7af843d57961ae7c0\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">5月27日讯，美团盘中跳水，现跌超5%，报265.4港元。美团将于明日公布一季度业绩。</p><p>中信证券发表报告表示，预测美团(3690.HK)今年首季核心指标为外卖日均订单量按年增长112%、变现率14.4%，相关业务经调整营运毛利率为4.5%，按年上升5.2个百分点；料美团首季到店、酒旅业务收入按年增长104%、相关业务经调整毛利率为38%，按年上升16个百分点；该行预计美团今年首季新业务经调整营运亏损为85.9亿元人民币，按季亏损加大主因社区团购业务投入期亏损随单量规模提升而扩大。</p><p>该行估预计美团今年首季总体经调整营运亏损56.3亿元人民币，预计公司财报呈现核心业务延续强劲表现+社区团购亏损阶段性加大的总体表现，该行认为内地反垄断审查、社保推进等问题影响可控，维持持续看好观点及“买入”评级，及目标价414.4港元。</p><p>中信证券指，根据草根调研汇总，今年首季重点跟踪的内地7家头部社区团购平台的交易规模约为430亿人民币，整体日均件单量已超过5,600万；其中预计首季美团优选平台GMV约120亿人民币，日均件数超1,850万单，交易规模和市占率方面继续领跑行业；同一梯队的拼多多(PDD.US)旗下多多买菜紧随其後，竞争层面并未拉开太大差距，区域格局继续分化。该行指是竞争虽造成短期资本重投入，但平台积累的规模优势和经营杠杆正在逐步兑现，未来几个季度平台整体履约成本的边际改善值得期待。该行预计美团优选首季业务营运毛利率为负30%，料相关亏损额约60亿元人民币。</p><p>该行指，近期美团和阿里巴巴(9988.HK)旗下饿了么均将原本针对商户的一揽子收费模式进行了佣金和配送费分离，即将原本约20%的商户抽佣率拆分成为技术服务费+履约服务费，技术服务费的佣金比例为5.8%至6%，保底金额1.04元人民币(20元人民币以下订单)。履约服务费按照不同距离、价格和时段进行阶梯式计费。平台费率更趋透明化，长看利好配送效率提升。直观来看，根据该行对单均20至150元人民币不等的订单按照精细化计费方式进行比较，该行认为新佣金模式对外卖整体变现率影响并不大。</p><p>中信证券认为，推行新政策对原本商家的计费方式进行更透明化的处理，一方面明确了美团作为技术驱动的互联网公司，在平台上交易按比率向商户收取固定的技术服务费；同时履约服务费更加清晰地呈现了骑手成本，将配送的选择权交给商家，并帮助骑手多劳多得。从订单趋势上判断，新的佣金政策或鼓励外卖商户缩小配送半径，3公里内的外卖变得更加集中将有助平台整体的配送效率更加优化。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c972a78fbe34096796ada872b683e450","relate_stocks":{"QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","03690":"美团-W"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188434377","content_text":"5月27日讯，美团盘中跳水，现跌超5%，报265.4港元。美团将于明日公布一季度业绩。中信证券发表报告表示，预测美团(3690.HK)今年首季核心指标为外卖日均订单量按年增长112%、变现率14.4%，相关业务经调整营运毛利率为4.5%，按年上升5.2个百分点；料美团首季到店、酒旅业务收入按年增长104%、相关业务经调整毛利率为38%，按年上升16个百分点；该行预计美团今年首季新业务经调整营运亏损为85.9亿元人民币，按季亏损加大主因社区团购业务投入期亏损随单量规模提升而扩大。该行估预计美团今年首季总体经调整营运亏损56.3亿元人民币，预计公司财报呈现核心业务延续强劲表现+社区团购亏损阶段性加大的总体表现，该行认为内地反垄断审查、社保推进等问题影响可控，维持持续看好观点及“买入”评级，及目标价414.4港元。中信证券指，根据草根调研汇总，今年首季重点跟踪的内地7家头部社区团购平台的交易规模约为430亿人民币，整体日均件单量已超过5,600万；其中预计首季美团优选平台GMV约120亿人民币，日均件数超1,850万单，交易规模和市占率方面继续领跑行业；同一梯队的拼多多(PDD.US)旗下多多买菜紧随其後，竞争层面并未拉开太大差距，区域格局继续分化。该行指是竞争虽造成短期资本重投入，但平台积累的规模优势和经营杠杆正在逐步兑现，未来几个季度平台整体履约成本的边际改善值得期待。该行预计美团优选首季业务营运毛利率为负30%，料相关亏损额约60亿元人民币。该行指，近期美团和阿里巴巴(9988.HK)旗下饿了么均将原本针对商户的一揽子收费模式进行了佣金和配送费分离，即将原本约20%的商户抽佣率拆分成为技术服务费+履约服务费，技术服务费的佣金比例为5.8%至6%，保底金额1.04元人民币(20元人民币以下订单)。履约服务费按照不同距离、价格和时段进行阶梯式计费。平台费率更趋透明化，长看利好配送效率提升。直观来看，根据该行对单均20至150元人民币不等的订单按照精细化计费方式进行比较，该行认为新佣金模式对外卖整体变现率影响并不大。中信证券认为，推行新政策对原本商家的计费方式进行更透明化的处理，一方面明确了美团作为技术驱动的互联网公司，在平台上交易按比率向商户收取固定的技术服务费；同时履约服务费更加清晰地呈现了骑手成本，将配送的选择权交给商家，并帮助骑手多劳多得。从订单趋势上判断，新的佣金政策或鼓励外卖商户缩小配送半径，3公里内的外卖变得更加集中将有助平台整体的配送效率更加优化。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":637,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":133490838,"gmtCreate":1621778683124,"gmtModify":1631885394406,"author":{"id":"3576788794749777","authorId":"3576788794749777","name":"乐_0966","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb3170d3f962d89ccf7eaf81f69dce1b","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"伟大的人","listText":"伟大的人","text":"伟大的人","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/133490838","repostId":"1128955452","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":789,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":139092207,"gmtCreate":1621572019509,"gmtModify":1631885394418,"author":{"id":"3576788794749777","authorId":"3576788794749777","name":"乐_0966","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb3170d3f962d89ccf7eaf81f69dce1b","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"阿弥托佛，施主醒个好吧，善哉善哉<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00981\"></a>","listText":"阿弥托佛，施主醒个好吧，善哉善哉<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00981\"></a>","text":"阿弥托佛，施主醒个好吧，善哉善哉","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2570f6db9a3db6160ba8cfe365a210cb","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/139092207","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":617,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":194475232,"gmtCreate":1621397527426,"gmtModify":1631885394430,"author":{"id":"3576788794749777","authorId":"3576788794749777","name":"乐_0966","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb3170d3f962d89ccf7eaf81f69dce1b","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"什么是做空啊","listText":"什么是做空啊","text":"什么是做空啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/194475232","repostId":"1129099395","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129099395","pubTimestamp":1621309498,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1129099395?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-18 11:44","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉要凉凉了？08年大空头大举做空特斯拉","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129099395","media":" 灰岩国际咨询  ","summary":"相信很多读者都看过著名的好莱坞电影，“Big Short\"，大空头这部电影描述了两批人马提前预知到金融危机的爆发，因此决心做空次级贷款。而其中大赚一笔的就是这个Dr Burry,他创建的Scion C","content":"<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fedbe23fcacb34a2128a7f2bf745ac5c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"699\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">相信很多读者都看过著名的好莱坞电影，“Big Short\"，大空头这部电影描述了两批人马提前预知到金融危机的爆发，因此决心做空次级贷款。</p><p>而其中大赚一笔的就是这个Dr Burry,他创建的Scion Capital大举做空次级贷款（subprime mortgages) 同时 Michael Burry也通过这次战役一战封神，经过了痛苦的三年亏损（这期间由于基金要不断的支付CDS的premium蒙受了更大规模的亏损,因此他的投资者不断威胁他要求赎回基金份额),最终他为投资者取得了近500%的回报（扣去所有的基金开支以及成本）</p><p>期间Michael Burry个人也收获了1亿美金的财富，因此决定将Scion Capital的所有投资者资金连同利润返还，最终以管理个人财富的方式解散他一手创办的基金，成为了一间为Burry本人服务的家族办公室。</p><p>Burry作为著名的价值投资者，他不光擅长做多，也非常善于做空股票标的。</p><p><b>是罕见的多空交易都能够获利的投资者。而先前他在Gamestop游戏驿站的获利颇丰，现在他决定继续加大对于TSLA特斯拉的做空仓位。</b></p><p><b>Scion Capital 在TSLA这只股票上有近800000张的认沽期权（puts)</b></p><p><b>从2021年1月26日开始，TSLA股价近期大暴跌，跌至35%，</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d66367af4dfd34e575d86d836c4f2390\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"714\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>投资者迈克尔·伯瑞（Michael Burry）因在金融危机期间对抵押证券进行数十亿美元的押注而声名，起，对埃隆·马斯克（ElonMusk）的特斯拉公司（Tesla Inc.）投入了相当大的空头赌注。</b></p><p>从周一提交给监管机构的文件显示，截至3月31日，巴里的Scion资产管理公司持有认沽权大量的认沽期权（合800000股的空头，这也使Scion有权在未来的不明日期或之前出售特斯拉股票。</p><p>特斯拉股价在一年的涨势推动该股上涨近700％之后，于1月26日收于883.09美元的历史新高。到三月底，它的价值缩水了四分之一，比周一收盘时的高点下跌了35％。</p><p><b>大家都知道特斯拉之所以能够续命，谷底反弹的非常重要的原因是上海特斯拉厂以及巨大的中国消费力的支持。从一月的特斯拉股票价格来看，更多是像类似GME游戏驿站的案例一样，由于空头仓位过于拥挤而导致的更大规模的逼空（short squeeze)而这个情况下特斯拉的股价非但没有跌下来甚至创了新高。</b></p><p>对特斯拉的押注不是Burry的第一次做空尝试，他之前在做空TSLA的交易中也亏损不少。而另一个看空TLSA的大空头James Chanos的做空TSLA的股票敞口也不得不在1月底打止损，来停止基金的亏损。</p><p>Burry在12月初的一条被删除的推文中说，他持有大量电动车制造商的空头敞口。其中最大的空头敞口自然是特斯拉。Burry 甚至建议马斯克出售股票以筹集资金来救特斯拉，而当时TSLA股票的股价处于疯狂的泡沫中，亦处于当时处于Burry所说的“荒谬”的泡沫水平。</p><p>特斯拉在四月下旬的财报显示，其第一季度获利创纪录，避免了行业芯片短缺，提高了汽车厂的制造水平，其中从特斯拉的财报中我们可以看到，TSLA的财报中，有四分之一的利润来自于销售比特币。另外四分之一来自于出售碳Credit，从侧面我们可以看到特斯拉本身的利润构成。</p><p><b>然而，股价下跌标志着该公司现在所抗衡的崇高期望。在分析师的质疑中：特斯拉没有提供2021年车辆交付的具体估计。也就是核心的交付产能问题如何解决。</b></p><p><b>我们无法知道Burry的Scion何时对特斯拉下了赌注，或是Scion Capital所持有的看跌期权的价格以及成本是多少以及公司为其付了多少钱。</b>从13F文件来看，其空头头寸价值5.34亿美元，这可能是特斯拉在3月31日的股价乘以Scion所押注的股票数量而得出的。</p><p>近期特斯拉仍然面对危机以及挑战。随着中国市场特斯拉车辆的质量堪忧以及产能问题逐渐爆发，而这关乎于特斯拉的最终命运。因为和其他的车商不同，特斯拉的业绩以及市场太过于依赖中国市场以及营收，在上海GIGA厂这张牌以及虚拟货币打完之后，TSLA究竟何去何从，从现在公司的运营策略来讲，我个人是偏悲观的。</p><p>从特斯拉现在的营收结构来看，我很难对TSLA过度乐观。虽然短期特斯拉的确会进入一个巨大的股价调整期，但是毕竟特斯拉仍然拥有大量的粉丝以及消费者，这意味着超跌之后仍然会出现短期的买入套利机会。</p><p>而这将很大程度上取决于Musk本人对于中国市场消费者的态度。如果产能这个老大难问题都迟迟拖着无法解决，那么900美金很可能将成为特斯拉的最高点。<b>而疯狂执着与狗狗币的马斯克也最终成为狗头军师？</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dbabf6f4375df87b9326fad3042e641\" tg-width=\"922\" tg-height=\"596\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>随着加密货币的狂热，如果你经常登Twitter看Elon Musk的动态，你会发现他越来越不务正业了。这并不是件好事，与其天天去给什么狗狗币doge coin坐庄成为一个所谓币圈的“心灵导师”，倒不如扎实好好把特斯拉车主的权益保障了，把产能扎实地做好，才能把公司运作好，你们说呢？</b></p>","source":"lsy1613474250850","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉要凉凉了？08年大空头大举做空特斯拉</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉要凉凉了？08年大空头大举做空特斯拉\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-18 11:44 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/p5UwsZjRKUNJdvvSE1PCaA><strong> 灰岩国际咨询  </strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>相信很多读者都看过著名的好莱坞电影，“Big Short\"，大空头这部电影描述了两批人马提前预知到金融危机的爆发，因此决心做空次级贷款。而其中大赚一笔的就是这个Dr Burry,他创建的Scion Capital大举做空次级贷款（subprime mortgages) 同时 Michael Burry也通过这次战役一战封神，经过了痛苦的三年亏损（这期间由于基金要不断的支付CDS的premium蒙受...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/p5UwsZjRKUNJdvvSE1PCaA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fedbe23fcacb34a2128a7f2bf745ac5c","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/p5UwsZjRKUNJdvvSE1PCaA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129099395","content_text":"相信很多读者都看过著名的好莱坞电影，“Big Short\"，大空头这部电影描述了两批人马提前预知到金融危机的爆发，因此决心做空次级贷款。而其中大赚一笔的就是这个Dr Burry,他创建的Scion Capital大举做空次级贷款（subprime mortgages) 同时 Michael Burry也通过这次战役一战封神，经过了痛苦的三年亏损（这期间由于基金要不断的支付CDS的premium蒙受了更大规模的亏损,因此他的投资者不断威胁他要求赎回基金份额),最终他为投资者取得了近500%的回报（扣去所有的基金开支以及成本）期间Michael Burry个人也收获了1亿美金的财富，因此决定将Scion Capital的所有投资者资金连同利润返还，最终以管理个人财富的方式解散他一手创办的基金，成为了一间为Burry本人服务的家族办公室。Burry作为著名的价值投资者，他不光擅长做多，也非常善于做空股票标的。是罕见的多空交易都能够获利的投资者。而先前他在Gamestop游戏驿站的获利颇丰，现在他决定继续加大对于TSLA特斯拉的做空仓位。Scion Capital 在TSLA这只股票上有近800000张的认沽期权（puts)从2021年1月26日开始，TSLA股价近期大暴跌，跌至35%，投资者迈克尔·伯瑞（Michael Burry）因在金融危机期间对抵押证券进行数十亿美元的押注而声名，起，对埃隆·马斯克（ElonMusk）的特斯拉公司（Tesla Inc.）投入了相当大的空头赌注。从周一提交给监管机构的文件显示，截至3月31日，巴里的Scion资产管理公司持有认沽权大量的认沽期权（合800000股的空头，这也使Scion有权在未来的不明日期或之前出售特斯拉股票。特斯拉股价在一年的涨势推动该股上涨近700％之后，于1月26日收于883.09美元的历史新高。到三月底，它的价值缩水了四分之一，比周一收盘时的高点下跌了35％。大家都知道特斯拉之所以能够续命，谷底反弹的非常重要的原因是上海特斯拉厂以及巨大的中国消费力的支持。从一月的特斯拉股票价格来看，更多是像类似GME游戏驿站的案例一样，由于空头仓位过于拥挤而导致的更大规模的逼空（short squeeze)而这个情况下特斯拉的股价非但没有跌下来甚至创了新高。对特斯拉的押注不是Burry的第一次做空尝试，他之前在做空TSLA的交易中也亏损不少。而另一个看空TLSA的大空头James Chanos的做空TSLA的股票敞口也不得不在1月底打止损，来停止基金的亏损。Burry在12月初的一条被删除的推文中说，他持有大量电动车制造商的空头敞口。其中最大的空头敞口自然是特斯拉。Burry 甚至建议马斯克出售股票以筹集资金来救特斯拉，而当时TSLA股票的股价处于疯狂的泡沫中，亦处于当时处于Burry所说的“荒谬”的泡沫水平。特斯拉在四月下旬的财报显示，其第一季度获利创纪录，避免了行业芯片短缺，提高了汽车厂的制造水平，其中从特斯拉的财报中我们可以看到，TSLA的财报中，有四分之一的利润来自于销售比特币。另外四分之一来自于出售碳Credit，从侧面我们可以看到特斯拉本身的利润构成。然而，股价下跌标志着该公司现在所抗衡的崇高期望。在分析师的质疑中：特斯拉没有提供2021年车辆交付的具体估计。也就是核心的交付产能问题如何解决。我们无法知道Burry的Scion何时对特斯拉下了赌注，或是Scion Capital所持有的看跌期权的价格以及成本是多少以及公司为其付了多少钱。从13F文件来看，其空头头寸价值5.34亿美元，这可能是特斯拉在3月31日的股价乘以Scion所押注的股票数量而得出的。近期特斯拉仍然面对危机以及挑战。随着中国市场特斯拉车辆的质量堪忧以及产能问题逐渐爆发，而这关乎于特斯拉的最终命运。因为和其他的车商不同，特斯拉的业绩以及市场太过于依赖中国市场以及营收，在上海GIGA厂这张牌以及虚拟货币打完之后，TSLA究竟何去何从，从现在公司的运营策略来讲，我个人是偏悲观的。从特斯拉现在的营收结构来看，我很难对TSLA过度乐观。虽然短期特斯拉的确会进入一个巨大的股价调整期，但是毕竟特斯拉仍然拥有大量的粉丝以及消费者，这意味着超跌之后仍然会出现短期的买入套利机会。而这将很大程度上取决于Musk本人对于中国市场消费者的态度。如果产能这个老大难问题都迟迟拖着无法解决，那么900美金很可能将成为特斯拉的最高点。而疯狂执着与狗狗币的马斯克也最终成为狗头军师？随着加密货币的狂热，如果你经常登Twitter看Elon Musk的动态，你会发现他越来越不务正业了。这并不是件好事，与其天天去给什么狗狗币doge coin坐庄成为一个所谓币圈的“心灵导师”，倒不如扎实好好把特斯拉车主的权益保障了，把产能扎实地做好，才能把公司运作好，你们说呢？","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":821,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":194472410,"gmtCreate":1621397418730,"gmtModify":1631885394444,"author":{"id":"3576788794749777","authorId":"3576788794749777","name":"乐_0966","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb3170d3f962d89ccf7eaf81f69dce1b","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C6L.SI\">$新加坡航空公司(C6L.SI)$</a>come on","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C6L.SI\">$新加坡航空公司(C6L.SI)$</a>come on","text":"$新加坡航空公司(C6L.SI)$come on","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e04b1565061a238fd5d19a8582305fce","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/194472410","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":967,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":194472654,"gmtCreate":1621397352478,"gmtModify":1634189475684,"author":{"id":"3576788794749777","authorId":"3576788794749777","name":"乐_0966","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb3170d3f962d89ccf7eaf81f69dce1b","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"看好","listText":"看好","text":"看好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/194472654","repostId":"2136944992","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2136944992","pubTimestamp":1621397041,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2136944992?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-19 12:04","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"腾讯音乐：反攻的号角还不够响亮","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2136944992","media":"海豚投研","summary":"整体来看，一季度延续去年的发展态势：用户大盘流失趋势不减，核心用户再一次被动“提纯”。在付费内容增多的情况下，付费率快速走高。\n从整体收入利润表现来看：\n(1)一季度腾讯音乐(TME.US)总营收同比","content":"<p>整体来看，一季度延续去年的发展态势：用户大盘流失趋势不减，核心用户再一次被动“提纯”。在付费内容增多的情况下，付费率快速走高。</p>\n<p><b>从整体收入利润表现来看：</b></p>\n<p>(1)一季度<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">腾讯音乐</a>(TME.US)总营收同比增长24%至78.2亿元人民币。主要得益于社交娱乐业务的修复以及广告收入的高景气增长。其中，广告收入再一次触达三位数增长。</p>\n<p>(2)一季度实现经营利润11.6亿元人民币，同比增长11.2%，略低于市场预期的11.87亿元。主要原因在于因TMEA音乐盛典的营销支出抬升，和用于产品优化和技术创新的研发新增支出带来。</p>\n<p><b>除此之外，市场对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>音乐比较关注的重要经营指标表现喜忧参半：</b></p>\n<p><b>1、非核心用户规模继续流失</b></p>\n<p>尽管自去年三季度开始，面对行业竞争腾讯音乐努力追赶，在QQ音乐上单劈出视频、社区两个板块，推出MV短视频、TME live(直播)、扑通社区组合拳，希望以此带来用户回流。</p>\n<p>然而本季度用户MAU指标未能实现明显改善，仅体现在核心用户的渗透率及时长情况有所向好。</p>\n<p><b>2、社交娱乐改版效果在ARPU端显现</b></p>\n<p>一季度两大业务的ARPU出现分化。社交娱乐ARPU明显修复，同比增长近36%。而在线音乐业务ARPU受转授权、数字专辑等其他音乐业务拖累，本季度继续下滑。</p>\n<p>好在订阅会员ARPU保持稳定，未来随着付费内容、功能的增多和完善，长远看仍然存在提价空间。</p>\n<p><b>3、广告继续发力成为新增长曲线</b></p>\n<p>一季度广告业务如上季度指引和市场预期，继续保持100%的同比高增长态势。海豚君通过拆分测算，预计一季度广告收入贡献占比已达8%。未来有望继续成长为腾讯音乐新的增长曲线。</p>\n<p><b>4、长音频用户飞速渗透</b></p>\n<p>去年末，管理层透露长音频用户渗透率已接近15%，MAU大约为0.9亿人。并且给出增长指引：2021年末用户规模将翻番。本季度管理层再次披露长音频用户渗透率已达20%，按照当期在线音乐MAU测算，用户规模达1.23亿人，是国内第一长音频平台“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XIMA\">喜马拉雅</a>”的一半。</p>\n<p>海豚君认为，合并后的“懒人畅听”新品牌，有望背靠腾讯泛娱乐流量大树，赶超头部同行。</p>\n<p><b>海豚君在前两季财报点评中明确指出，腾讯音乐战略打法正从佛系保守转向激进狼性。</b></p>\n<p>相较于同门兄弟腾讯视频在影视行业的艰难求生、奋力直追，腾讯音乐以往的日子过的都很轻松。然而2020年开始，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DYIN\">抖音</a>、快手等短视频平台坐拥持续攀升的流量大盘，除了对有限的用户时长进行抢夺侵蚀之外，也开始对音乐内容发起正式冲击，逐渐威胁到腾讯音乐四大平台的市场地位。</p>\n<p><b>这也是腾讯高层看到的问题和危机：4月末至5月初，腾讯音乐是腾讯集团新一轮组织架构调整的主要关注对象之一。</b></p>\n<p>对于腾讯音乐，腾讯总办委派原SNG(社交网络事业群)总经理梁柱来出任腾讯音乐集团CEO，他曾经在930变革之后帮助QQ重新梳理战略和价值观，也曾长期管理过QQ音乐。</p>\n<p>除此之外，腾讯音乐内部管理体系也迎来了一波洗牌，体现了总办层对于腾讯音乐现状的不满和整改的决心。旨在通过加强腾讯音乐的长远战略布局，打通与PCG平台各业务之间的合作，共同助力腾讯在长短音视频领域打开向上想象空间。</p>\n<p><b>海豚君此前研究提到，对于经营风格切换后的腾讯音乐，</b><b>市场投资逻辑也发生了切换——由稳定现金牛向成长股转变。</b></p>\n<p>但切换的代价就是，市场对于成长性指标的关注度开始大于总营收表现。首当其冲的就是用户类指标，包括活跃用户规模、用户时长、付费率、ARPU等等，若这类指标增长一般，未出现超预期表现，则市场也会吝于在短期内就给予高估值。</p>\n<p><b>展望二季度及下半年，海豚君认为：</b></p>\n<p>(1)腾讯将音视频业务统一战线之后，有助于减少外部平台对用户流量的侵蚀，更多在腾讯泛娱乐内部各平台之间来回流转，即后续腾讯音乐用户规模下滑速度将有所缓解。但仍需关注短视频平台借流量优势，快速进军数字音乐领域的竞争风险。</p>\n<p>(2)除了社交娱乐业务可能继续走修复之外，4月“酷我畅听”与“懒人听书”的合并升级，也将助力腾讯音乐在长音频、播客等领域深入挖掘流量价值和IP价值。</p>\n<p>(3)扑通社区的高粘性则有利于广告业务在今年保持高增长，继续打开商业化空间。</p>\n<p><b>另外，海豚君需要提醒：腾讯音乐对于酷我、酷狗及版权收购或还涉及反垄断监管风险。</b></p>\n<p>若真如市场传闻，腾讯音乐需要对酷我、酷狗等当前主要现金牛资产进行拆分，将会对腾讯音乐估值带来非常大的影响，届时则需要对腾讯音乐进行价值重估。不过海豚君认为，拆分的可能性不大，但或许对业务经营上施加一定的限制。</p>\n<p>后续海豚君将密切关注此事件进展。</p>\n<p><b>本季财报的具体解读</b></p>\n<p>对于腾讯音乐的业务框架及投资逻辑，海豚君在此前的深度研究报告中已经详细讨论过。感兴趣的小伙伴可以回溯以下文章链接：</p>\n<p>《腾讯音乐(上)：业务模式及风险机遇》</p>\n<p>《腾讯音乐(下)：业绩测算及估值》</p>\n<p>这里，海豚君简单贴一张业务框架图，方便大家更好的解读财报：</p>\n<p>腾讯音乐基本覆盖了数字音乐产业链的中下游——分发+渠道+衍生业务(直播、K歌)，并且在近几年来，通过股权投资上游音乐厂牌，逐步完成全产业链的覆盖。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59b1907f299a4a3fdb858eec1fcff9cf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>1、整体业绩基本符合市场预期</b></p>\n<p><b>(1)收入端</b></p>\n<p>腾讯音乐一季度共实现营收78.24亿元人民币，同比增加24%。主要得益于稳健增长的订阅业务、社交娱乐业务的修复以及广告收入的高景气增长。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/461d53a573a58677a57fd64a11bdcb78\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e2a9ce5e141c23eef7872368642ef2d\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"502\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>尽管社交娱乐业务在收入贡献中仍然占比最大，但随着音乐曲目纳入付费墙不断增多，而核心用户的粘性较高，对优质音乐的付费意愿未随之大幅递减。订阅业务对总营收的贡献有望在未来得到持续攀升。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7129129bf02bbc9c1fc6b3ba32aa768\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>(2)利润端</b></p>\n<p>一季度公司实现经营利润11.64亿元人民币，同比增长11.2%，经营利润率有所下滑。与去年同期相比，主要原因在于因TMEA音乐盛典而抬升的营销支出，以及用于产品优化和技术创新的研发新增支出带来。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c1254e8794cae06530cf35fd7a95aa9\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>2、非核心用户规模继续流失</b></p>\n<p>在2020年以前，腾讯音乐背靠版权垄断优势，用户规模一直稳步渗透。腾讯音乐的流量大盘与网易云音乐、虾米音乐等同行竞争对手相比，一直具备绝对性优势。</p>\n<p>而抖音等短视频平台快速崛起，不仅使腾讯音乐的直播、K歌等社交娱乐业务面临直接竞争，在线音乐业务也因为用户时长被短视频大量侵蚀，而受到显著影响，MAU持续下滑。<b>市场对于腾讯音乐的用户指标关注度也因此而迅速升高。</b></p>\n<p>尽管自去年三季度开始，腾讯音乐努力追赶，在QQ音乐上单劈出视频、社区两个板块，推出MV短视频、TME live(直播)、扑通社区组合拳，希望以此带来用户回流。</p>\n<p>然而，本季度用户MAU指标未能实现明显改善，仅体现在核心用户的渗透率及时长情况继续向好。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95a681dd0cf179fb8d36a5de05ff1c99\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>与前几个季度情况相似，流量在走失之时，核心用户的付费意愿未出现明显的下滑。随着付费内容的增多，两大业务的付费率均在稳步走高。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0364ba896932bdf4392bc7057d465f9d\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8ccdd43f753f1e26f35dab8fd8db1ed\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>3、社交娱乐改版效果在ARPU端显现</b></p>\n<p>从单用户付费情况来看，社交娱乐ARPU一季度同比有了明显提升，增长近36%。</p>\n<p>海豚君分析认为，这主要是由<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">全民</a>K歌的信息流排布改版后拉动广告增收，以及“QQ音乐直播”、“全民k歌-好友歌房”等新功能促进了用户消费意愿提升。</p>\n<p>除此之外，去年同期因疫情影响基数较低，本季度社交娱乐业务自身也存在修复预期。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed09d60fd22bae3df4f19bf07918129f\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>而对于在线音乐业务，除了订阅服务的ARPU保持稳定，未来随长音频等内容增多，仍然具备一定的提价空间之外，以转授权、数字专辑等为主的其他音乐服务，单用户付费值继续走低。</p>\n<p>在上季财报中，海豚君提到版权4.0时代，独家代理授权的模式将逐渐淡出。这对于腾讯音乐来说，将显著影响其版权转授权的收入。</p>\n<p>但由于其他音乐服务中还包括投放在QQ音乐、酷狗/酷我音乐的广告收入，因此在后续转授权、数字专辑售卖需求销退过程中，广告能够抵消部分收入的下滑。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54da247bb558f26d6b895049d088c86d\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"492\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>4、广告继续发力成为新增长曲线</b></p>\n<p>自去年年中以来，腾讯音乐开始对流量的广告价值积极挖掘。截至一季度，广告收入已经连续三个季度实现100%增长。海豚君预计，未来广告业务对总营收的增长支撑作用也将愈加明显。因此有必要对广告增长情况单独做分析。</p>\n<p>由于腾讯音乐财报暂时未拆分单列广告收入情况，海豚君通过过往几个季度电话会中披露的信息，对广告收入做了单独测算。从一季度来看，腾讯音乐的广告收入占比已达到7.9%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43434014934037fcc43156160deaed57\" tg-width=\"826\" tg-height=\"494\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>5、“懒人”、“畅听”合并后，长音频飞速渗透</b></p>\n<p>今年3月，腾讯音乐完成了对长音频平台——“懒人听书”的全资收购。长音频用户规模飞速扩张，截至本次财报季度末，从2020年一季度的5%、2020年四季度14%的渗透率水平，上升至20%，即约为1.23亿的用户规模。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07f75f3cbaa2824f2fffb98b97366938\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>5月，腾讯音乐宣布将旗下自有长音频平台“酷我畅听”与“懒人听书”两个品牌，合并成“懒人畅听”新品牌，从而实现资源的整合和统一管理运营。“懒人畅听”有望背靠腾讯音乐乃至整个腾讯泛娱乐版图的流量、内容版权大树，在长音频领域重拳出击。</p>\n<p>在长音频领域，公司将继续通过“内容付费(会员)+广告”双模式，挖掘音频内容价值。</p>","source":"lsy1607051923659","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta 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href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/477757.html><strong>海豚投研</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>整体来看，一季度延续去年的发展态势：用户大盘流失趋势不减，核心用户再一次被动“提纯”。在付费内容增多的情况下，付费率快速走高。\n从整体收入利润表现来看：\n(1)一季度腾讯音乐(TME.US)总营收同比增长24%至78.2亿元人民币。主要得益于社交娱乐业务的修复以及广告收入的高景气增长。其中，广告收入再一次触达三位数增长。\n(2)一季度实现经营利润11.6亿元人民币，同比增长11.2%，略低于市场...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/477757.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc041d2ef722a0eaffa4a870c58717ed","relate_stocks":{"TME":"腾讯音乐"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/477757.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2136944992","content_text":"整体来看，一季度延续去年的发展态势：用户大盘流失趋势不减，核心用户再一次被动“提纯”。在付费内容增多的情况下，付费率快速走高。\n从整体收入利润表现来看：\n(1)一季度腾讯音乐(TME.US)总营收同比增长24%至78.2亿元人民币。主要得益于社交娱乐业务的修复以及广告收入的高景气增长。其中，广告收入再一次触达三位数增长。\n(2)一季度实现经营利润11.6亿元人民币，同比增长11.2%，略低于市场预期的11.87亿元。主要原因在于因TMEA音乐盛典的营销支出抬升，和用于产品优化和技术创新的研发新增支出带来。\n除此之外，市场对腾讯音乐比较关注的重要经营指标表现喜忧参半：\n1、非核心用户规模继续流失\n尽管自去年三季度开始，面对行业竞争腾讯音乐努力追赶，在QQ音乐上单劈出视频、社区两个板块，推出MV短视频、TME live(直播)、扑通社区组合拳，希望以此带来用户回流。\n然而本季度用户MAU指标未能实现明显改善，仅体现在核心用户的渗透率及时长情况有所向好。\n2、社交娱乐改版效果在ARPU端显现\n一季度两大业务的ARPU出现分化。社交娱乐ARPU明显修复，同比增长近36%。而在线音乐业务ARPU受转授权、数字专辑等其他音乐业务拖累，本季度继续下滑。\n好在订阅会员ARPU保持稳定，未来随着付费内容、功能的增多和完善，长远看仍然存在提价空间。\n3、广告继续发力成为新增长曲线\n一季度广告业务如上季度指引和市场预期，继续保持100%的同比高增长态势。海豚君通过拆分测算，预计一季度广告收入贡献占比已达8%。未来有望继续成长为腾讯音乐新的增长曲线。\n4、长音频用户飞速渗透\n去年末，管理层透露长音频用户渗透率已接近15%，MAU大约为0.9亿人。并且给出增长指引：2021年末用户规模将翻番。本季度管理层再次披露长音频用户渗透率已达20%，按照当期在线音乐MAU测算，用户规模达1.23亿人，是国内第一长音频平台“喜马拉雅”的一半。\n海豚君认为，合并后的“懒人畅听”新品牌，有望背靠腾讯泛娱乐流量大树，赶超头部同行。\n海豚君在前两季财报点评中明确指出，腾讯音乐战略打法正从佛系保守转向激进狼性。\n相较于同门兄弟腾讯视频在影视行业的艰难求生、奋力直追，腾讯音乐以往的日子过的都很轻松。然而2020年开始，抖音、快手等短视频平台坐拥持续攀升的流量大盘，除了对有限的用户时长进行抢夺侵蚀之外，也开始对音乐内容发起正式冲击，逐渐威胁到腾讯音乐四大平台的市场地位。\n这也是腾讯高层看到的问题和危机：4月末至5月初，腾讯音乐是腾讯集团新一轮组织架构调整的主要关注对象之一。\n对于腾讯音乐，腾讯总办委派原SNG(社交网络事业群)总经理梁柱来出任腾讯音乐集团CEO，他曾经在930变革之后帮助QQ重新梳理战略和价值观，也曾长期管理过QQ音乐。\n除此之外，腾讯音乐内部管理体系也迎来了一波洗牌，体现了总办层对于腾讯音乐现状的不满和整改的决心。旨在通过加强腾讯音乐的长远战略布局，打通与PCG平台各业务之间的合作，共同助力腾讯在长短音视频领域打开向上想象空间。\n海豚君此前研究提到，对于经营风格切换后的腾讯音乐，市场投资逻辑也发生了切换——由稳定现金牛向成长股转变。\n但切换的代价就是，市场对于成长性指标的关注度开始大于总营收表现。首当其冲的就是用户类指标，包括活跃用户规模、用户时长、付费率、ARPU等等，若这类指标增长一般，未出现超预期表现，则市场也会吝于在短期内就给予高估值。\n展望二季度及下半年，海豚君认为：\n(1)腾讯将音视频业务统一战线之后，有助于减少外部平台对用户流量的侵蚀，更多在腾讯泛娱乐内部各平台之间来回流转，即后续腾讯音乐用户规模下滑速度将有所缓解。但仍需关注短视频平台借流量优势，快速进军数字音乐领域的竞争风险。\n(2)除了社交娱乐业务可能继续走修复之外，4月“酷我畅听”与“懒人听书”的合并升级，也将助力腾讯音乐在长音频、播客等领域深入挖掘流量价值和IP价值。\n(3)扑通社区的高粘性则有利于广告业务在今年保持高增长，继续打开商业化空间。\n另外，海豚君需要提醒：腾讯音乐对于酷我、酷狗及版权收购或还涉及反垄断监管风险。\n若真如市场传闻，腾讯音乐需要对酷我、酷狗等当前主要现金牛资产进行拆分，将会对腾讯音乐估值带来非常大的影响，届时则需要对腾讯音乐进行价值重估。不过海豚君认为，拆分的可能性不大，但或许对业务经营上施加一定的限制。\n后续海豚君将密切关注此事件进展。\n本季财报的具体解读\n对于腾讯音乐的业务框架及投资逻辑，海豚君在此前的深度研究报告中已经详细讨论过。感兴趣的小伙伴可以回溯以下文章链接：\n《腾讯音乐(上)：业务模式及风险机遇》\n《腾讯音乐(下)：业绩测算及估值》\n这里，海豚君简单贴一张业务框架图，方便大家更好的解读财报：\n腾讯音乐基本覆盖了数字音乐产业链的中下游——分发+渠道+衍生业务(直播、K歌)，并且在近几年来，通过股权投资上游音乐厂牌，逐步完成全产业链的覆盖。\n\n1、整体业绩基本符合市场预期\n(1)收入端\n腾讯音乐一季度共实现营收78.24亿元人民币，同比增加24%。主要得益于稳健增长的订阅业务、社交娱乐业务的修复以及广告收入的高景气增长。\n\n尽管社交娱乐业务在收入贡献中仍然占比最大，但随着音乐曲目纳入付费墙不断增多，而核心用户的粘性较高，对优质音乐的付费意愿未随之大幅递减。订阅业务对总营收的贡献有望在未来得到持续攀升。\n\n(2)利润端\n一季度公司实现经营利润11.64亿元人民币，同比增长11.2%，经营利润率有所下滑。与去年同期相比，主要原因在于因TMEA音乐盛典而抬升的营销支出，以及用于产品优化和技术创新的研发新增支出带来。\n\n2、非核心用户规模继续流失\n在2020年以前，腾讯音乐背靠版权垄断优势，用户规模一直稳步渗透。腾讯音乐的流量大盘与网易云音乐、虾米音乐等同行竞争对手相比，一直具备绝对性优势。\n而抖音等短视频平台快速崛起，不仅使腾讯音乐的直播、K歌等社交娱乐业务面临直接竞争，在线音乐业务也因为用户时长被短视频大量侵蚀，而受到显著影响，MAU持续下滑。市场对于腾讯音乐的用户指标关注度也因此而迅速升高。\n尽管自去年三季度开始，腾讯音乐努力追赶，在QQ音乐上单劈出视频、社区两个板块，推出MV短视频、TME live(直播)、扑通社区组合拳，希望以此带来用户回流。\n然而，本季度用户MAU指标未能实现明显改善，仅体现在核心用户的渗透率及时长情况继续向好。\n\n与前几个季度情况相似，流量在走失之时，核心用户的付费意愿未出现明显的下滑。随着付费内容的增多，两大业务的付费率均在稳步走高。\n\n3、社交娱乐改版效果在ARPU端显现\n从单用户付费情况来看，社交娱乐ARPU一季度同比有了明显提升，增长近36%。\n海豚君分析认为，这主要是由全民K歌的信息流排布改版后拉动广告增收，以及“QQ音乐直播”、“全民k歌-好友歌房”等新功能促进了用户消费意愿提升。\n除此之外，去年同期因疫情影响基数较低，本季度社交娱乐业务自身也存在修复预期。\n\n而对于在线音乐业务，除了订阅服务的ARPU保持稳定，未来随长音频等内容增多，仍然具备一定的提价空间之外，以转授权、数字专辑等为主的其他音乐服务，单用户付费值继续走低。\n在上季财报中，海豚君提到版权4.0时代，独家代理授权的模式将逐渐淡出。这对于腾讯音乐来说，将显著影响其版权转授权的收入。\n但由于其他音乐服务中还包括投放在QQ音乐、酷狗/酷我音乐的广告收入，因此在后续转授权、数字专辑售卖需求销退过程中，广告能够抵消部分收入的下滑。\n\n4、广告继续发力成为新增长曲线\n自去年年中以来，腾讯音乐开始对流量的广告价值积极挖掘。截至一季度，广告收入已经连续三个季度实现100%增长。海豚君预计，未来广告业务对总营收的增长支撑作用也将愈加明显。因此有必要对广告增长情况单独做分析。\n由于腾讯音乐财报暂时未拆分单列广告收入情况，海豚君通过过往几个季度电话会中披露的信息，对广告收入做了单独测算。从一季度来看，腾讯音乐的广告收入占比已达到7.9%。\n\n5、“懒人”、“畅听”合并后，长音频飞速渗透\n今年3月，腾讯音乐完成了对长音频平台——“懒人听书”的全资收购。长音频用户规模飞速扩张，截至本次财报季度末，从2020年一季度的5%、2020年四季度14%的渗透率水平，上升至20%，即约为1.23亿的用户规模。\n\n5月，腾讯音乐宣布将旗下自有长音频平台“酷我畅听”与“懒人听书”两个品牌，合并成“懒人畅听”新品牌，从而实现资源的整合和统一管理运营。“懒人畅听”有望背靠腾讯音乐乃至整个腾讯泛娱乐版图的流量、内容版权大树，在长音频领域重拳出击。\n在长音频领域，公司将继续通过“内容付费(会员)+广告”双模式，挖掘音频内容价值。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":410,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":195420459,"gmtCreate":1621309257471,"gmtModify":1631885597920,"author":{"id":"3576788794749777","authorId":"3576788794749777","name":"乐_0966","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb3170d3f962d89ccf7eaf81f69dce1b","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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13:08","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"突破瓶颈，中国芯开启超车道速度，增加核心竞争优势","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2134696320","media":"腾讯新闻","summary":"随着对芯片制裁的升级，中芯已经受到了一段时间的关注。我们的大部分芯片仍然依赖进口。根据过去两年的数据，中国进口的芯片超过了3000亿美元。所以如果芯片禁令全面实施，将对我们产生严重影响。不过，目前台积","content":"<p>随着对芯片制裁的升级，中芯已经受到了一段时间的关注。我们的大部分芯片仍然依赖进口。根据过去两年的数据，中国进口的芯片超过了3000亿美元。所以如果芯片禁令全面实施，将对我们产生严重影响。不过，目前<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>和联发科还在和我的芯片合作。然而，中国核心自主研发仍然是关键，只有做到完全自主生产，才能不受他人控制。</p>\n<p>目前，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMI\">中芯国际</a>已经实现了14nm芯片的量产，通过N+1技术，已经能够自主生产7nm芯片。此外，最近，北京源银碳基集成电路研究所发布了碳基半导体的最新研究成果，我们已经突破了碳基半导体的生产瓶颈。随着碳基芯片研究的不断深入，或许中国芯片公司将会迎头赶上。</p>\n<p>众所周知，目前的芯片都是硅芯片。但是碳基芯片是由碳基半导体，而不是硅基半导体制成的，所以它们消耗的能源更少，运行效率比硅基芯片高30%。同时，碳基芯片要便宜得多。碳基芯片允许更大的计算能力，更快的计算速度和更少的能源消耗。可以说是相当强大的!然而，碳基芯片批量生产还有很长的路要走，但这为我们在芯片领域实现跨越式发展提供了新的途径，奠定了良好的基础。凭借我们目前在硅半导体领域的领先地位，我们在未来的硅芯片领域必将拥有核心竞争优势。</p>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" 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display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n突破瓶颈，中国芯开启超车道速度，增加核心竞争优势\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-12 13:08 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202105121248557a52b2a7&s=b><strong>腾讯新闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>随着对芯片制裁的升级，中芯已经受到了一段时间的关注。我们的大部分芯片仍然依赖进口。根据过去两年的数据，中国进口的芯片超过了3000亿美元。所以如果芯片禁令全面实施，将对我们产生严重影响。不过，目前台积电和联发科还在和我的芯片合作。然而，中国核心自主研发仍然是关键，只有做到完全自主生产，才能不受他人控制。\n目前，中芯国际已经实现了14nm芯片的量产，通过N+1技术，已经能够自主生产7nm芯片。此外，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202105121248557a52b2a7&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03e38a3a3c63bd5a9d8d8ca2d384d1c5","relate_stocks":{"TSM":"台积电","00981":"中芯国际"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202105121248557a52b2a7&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2134696320","content_text":"随着对芯片制裁的升级，中芯已经受到了一段时间的关注。我们的大部分芯片仍然依赖进口。根据过去两年的数据，中国进口的芯片超过了3000亿美元。所以如果芯片禁令全面实施，将对我们产生严重影响。不过，目前台积电和联发科还在和我的芯片合作。然而，中国核心自主研发仍然是关键，只有做到完全自主生产，才能不受他人控制。\n目前，中芯国际已经实现了14nm芯片的量产，通过N+1技术，已经能够自主生产7nm芯片。此外，最近，北京源银碳基集成电路研究所发布了碳基半导体的最新研究成果，我们已经突破了碳基半导体的生产瓶颈。随着碳基芯片研究的不断深入，或许中国芯片公司将会迎头赶上。\n众所周知，目前的芯片都是硅芯片。但是碳基芯片是由碳基半导体，而不是硅基半导体制成的，所以它们消耗的能源更少，运行效率比硅基芯片高30%。同时，碳基芯片要便宜得多。碳基芯片允许更大的计算能力，更快的计算速度和更少的能源消耗。可以说是相当强大的!然而，碳基芯片批量生产还有很长的路要走，但这为我们在芯片领域实现跨越式发展提供了新的途径，奠定了良好的基础。凭借我们目前在硅半导体领域的领先地位，我们在未来的硅芯片领域必将拥有核心竞争优势。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":462,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":107652830,"gmtCreate":1620485577420,"gmtModify":1631888637919,"author":{"id":"3576788794749777","authorId":"3576788794749777","name":"乐_0966","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb3170d3f962d89ccf7eaf81f69dce1b","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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