MrHappy的个人主页 - 老虎社区

MrHappy

MrHappy

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0勋章

2021-12-12

Lol

US IPO Week Ahead: IoT solutions, wine, and satellites in a 3 IPO week<blockquote>美国 IPO 周即将到来：物联网解决方案、葡萄酒和卫星在 IPO 第三周</blockquote>

2021-08-21

Just buy!

Ignore Elon Musk’s dancing distraction and face the dangers ahead for Tesla<blockquote>忽略埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）跳舞的干扰，直面特斯拉未来的危险</blockquote>

2021-05-18

Still buy!

Elon Musk On Tesla Giga Berlin Delay Says 'Less Bureaucracy, That Would Be Better'<blockquote>埃隆·马斯克就特斯拉 Giga Berlin 延期表示“少一些官僚主义，那会更好”</blockquote>

2021-09-03

Bad news for Singapore

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-05

$1000!

Can NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股票能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是一个“何时”而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote>

2022-02-14

$Lemonade, Inc.(LMND)$cry la

2021-11-11

$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$damn

2021-08-08

Yes !

Tesla Stock: Headed to $1,200?<blockquote>特斯拉股票：走向 1,200 美元？</blockquote>

2021-05-04

Out of the mind

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-09-11

$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$why

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和历史对比，它至少在过去3年内都是最便宜的。阿里2022年1月底的PE TTM（滚动市盈率）在16倍左右，2020年底、2019年底分别是31和43。 和同业对比，亚马逊的PE是60倍左右。 但PE只是相对估值，只能说明阿里相对过去便宜，相对同业便宜。但它无法说明：阿里的业务，是否现在也就值这么多钱。目前的市场情绪，对阿里的未来盈利前景预期极度悲观。反映在股价上，阿里股价从2021年初的约227美元，下跌到2022年2月初的120美元左右。支撑这种悲观情绪的，主要是以下4个观点。 阿里的市场优势地位正在被拼多多、直播电商持续蚕食。 阿里未来缺乏新的业务增长点。 持续的监管压力（如反垄断等）将压制阿里盈利能力。 阿里作为“基础设施”，理应参照“公用事业”来估值。而公用事业的估值水平，理应偏低。 这些观点在多大程度上是对的？如果是对的，影响几何？基于事实、数据，我们逐个讨论。优势地位会被颠覆吗？老对手拼多多，以及以抖音、快手为代表","listText":"雪豹财经社·特约撰稿&nbsp;| 巴 安封面来源 | 摄图网16个月前，2020年10月，阿里巴巴创下319美元/股的历史最高，折合成人民币，市值超5万亿。2022年情人节前的最后一个交易日（2月11日），阿里收盘价为122.25美元，市值约2.1万亿人民币。与最高价相比，已经跌去约62%。抄底阿里的时机到了吗？一个人的投资方式，取决于对投资这件事的认知。到目前为止，我始终相信3个基本假设： 短期而言，股价的涨跌无法预测。 长期而言，股票价格会回归公司价值。 公司价值，是由其持续创造强劲的正向现金流的能力决定的。 由于“股价的短期涨跌无法预测”，“能否抄底”这个问题，不可能有一个可靠的短期答案。但长期而言，“股票价格会回归公司价值”。因此，比抄底更值得思考的问题是：目前价格下，阿里的价值被低估了吗？简单看PE（市盈率），阿里股价处于相对便宜的区间。 和历史对比，它至少在过去3年内都是最便宜的。阿里2022年1月底的PE TTM（滚动市盈率）在16倍左右，2020年底、2019年底分别是31和43。 和同业对比，亚马逊的PE是60倍左右。 但PE只是相对估值，只能说明阿里相对过去便宜，相对同业便宜。但它无法说明：阿里的业务，是否现在也就值这么多钱。目前的市场情绪，对阿里的未来盈利前景预期极度悲观。反映在股价上，阿里股价从2021年初的约227美元，下跌到2022年2月初的120美元左右。支撑这种悲观情绪的，主要是以下4个观点。 阿里的市场优势地位正在被拼多多、直播电商持续蚕食。 阿里未来缺乏新的业务增长点。 持续的监管压力（如反垄断等）将压制阿里盈利能力。 阿里作为“基础设施”，理应参照“公用事业”来估值。而公用事业的估值水平，理应偏低。 这些观点在多大程度上是对的？如果是对的，影响几何？基于事实、数据，我们逐个讨论。优势地位会被颠覆吗？老对手拼多多，以及以抖音、快手为代表","text":"雪豹财经社·特约撰稿 | 巴 安封面来源 | 摄图网16个月前，2020年10月，阿里巴巴创下319美元/股的历史最高，折合成人民币，市值超5万亿。2022年情人节前的最后一个交易日（2月11日），阿里收盘价为122.25美元，市值约2.1万亿人民币。与最高价相比，已经跌去约62%。抄底阿里的时机到了吗？一个人的投资方式，取决于对投资这件事的认知。到目前为止，我始终相信3个基本假设： 短期而言，股价的涨跌无法预测。 长期而言，股票价格会回归公司价值。 公司价值，是由其持续创造强劲的正向现金流的能力决定的。 由于“股价的短期涨跌无法预测”，“能否抄底”这个问题，不可能有一个可靠的短期答案。但长期而言，“股票价格会回归公司价值”。因此，比抄底更值得思考的问题是：目前价格下，阿里的价值被低估了吗？简单看PE（市盈率），阿里股价处于相对便宜的区间。 和历史对比，它至少在过去3年内都是最便宜的。阿里2022年1月底的PE TTM（滚动市盈率）在16倍左右，2020年底、2019年底分别是31和43。 和同业对比，亚马逊的PE是60倍左右。 但PE只是相对估值，只能说明阿里相对过去便宜，相对同业便宜。但它无法说明：阿里的业务，是否现在也就值这么多钱。目前的市场情绪，对阿里的未来盈利前景预期极度悲观。反映在股价上，阿里股价从2021年初的约227美元，下跌到2022年2月初的120美元左右。支撑这种悲观情绪的，主要是以下4个观点。 阿里的市场优势地位正在被拼多多、直播电商持续蚕食。 阿里未来缺乏新的业务增长点。 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这些观点在多大程度上是对的？如果是对的，影响几何？基于事实、数据，我们逐个讨论。优势地位会被颠覆吗？老对手拼多多，以及以抖音、快手为代表","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79765dbb3a231576a0e3af001d2eb78d","width":"1080","height":"606"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/631254927","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":1,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3411,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":638432311,"gmtCreate":1645490815161,"gmtModify":1645490815334,"author":{"id":"3576627310629871","authorId":"3576627310629871","name":"MrHappy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db25aeb48bc88043744fb93a4c4c3be2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576627310629871","authorIdStr":"3576627310629871"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/638432311","repostId":"638886435","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":638886435,"gmtCreate":1645175026495,"gmtModify":1645180736938,"author":{"id":"3519157433193136","authorId":"3519157433193136","name":"美港股观察社","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfcc85fddcd77379cda6138d51be4c17","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3519157433193136","authorIdStr":"3519157433193136"},"themes":[],"title":"美团暴跌究竟怎么回事？","htmlText":"今天过了下午2点半，美团突然跳水，仅仅一个小时下跌超过17%，最后收跌14.86%。美团作为港股超万亿港币市值的互联网公司，直接带崩其他互联网公司。阿里巴巴、快手、B站悉数下跌，腾讯是里面算稳的了。导致美团下跌的原因来自一份由国家发改委等14部门印发《关于促进服务业领域困难行业恢复发展的若干政策》文件，这份文件的第二大部分的第12条提到了“引导外卖等互联网平台企业进一步下调餐饮业商户服务费标准”。尽管文件中没有进一步细化“商户服务费”，不过大部分人一看就明白说的是美团向餐饮店收的“佣金”。“佣金”一直以来都是美团的主要收入来源，根据2021年三季报，来自餐饮的佣金占总收入47.6%。如果这部分收入下调，确实严重影响美团的收入规模。来源：美团2021年Q3财报回到这份文件本身，这份文件并不是针对美团的，这份文件分成了8部分，分别讨论了服务业、餐饮业、零售业、旅游业、运输业、民航业、防疫措施以及保障措施，关于互联网平台对商家的收费只是其中一点，并不是监管文件。并且用词是“引导”，看起来比较平和，也没有说下调的幅度。再看最后半句，说的是“阶段性”服务优惠，即使实施也不是永久下调服务费标准。当然，文件实施将增加未来美团增长的不确定性，在2020年一季度因为新冠疫情爆发，美团单季度收入就大幅下降，投资者担心收入再度大幅缩水，影响美团增长，并且不知道会持续多久。来源：理杏仁从估值方面来看，其实投资者一直不知道如何给美团估值，尽管美团体量做得很大，并且使用频率极高，大部分人每天都要打开好几次，无论是点外卖还是骑共享单车。在2020年二季度到2021年一季度，美团快速从疫情中恢复过来，收入规模新高，APP也成为本地生活的巨无霸。来源：理杏仁尽管盈利能力并不稳定，但美团被看作中国互联网的核心资产之一，既然是核心资产还需要知道怎么估值吗？买就完了，市销率从4倍拉到22倍。今天暴跌之后，估值依然","listText":"今天过了下午2点半，美团突然跳水，仅仅一个小时下跌超过17%，最后收跌14.86%。美团作为港股超万亿港币市值的互联网公司，直接带崩其他互联网公司。阿里巴巴、快手、B站悉数下跌，腾讯是里面算稳的了。导致美团下跌的原因来自一份由国家发改委等14部门印发《关于促进服务业领域困难行业恢复发展的若干政策》文件，这份文件的第二大部分的第12条提到了“引导外卖等互联网平台企业进一步下调餐饮业商户服务费标准”。尽管文件中没有进一步细化“商户服务费”，不过大部分人一看就明白说的是美团向餐饮店收的“佣金”。“佣金”一直以来都是美团的主要收入来源，根据2021年三季报，来自餐饮的佣金占总收入47.6%。如果这部分收入下调，确实严重影响美团的收入规模。来源：美团2021年Q3财报回到这份文件本身，这份文件并不是针对美团的，这份文件分成了8部分，分别讨论了服务业、餐饮业、零售业、旅游业、运输业、民航业、防疫措施以及保障措施，关于互联网平台对商家的收费只是其中一点，并不是监管文件。并且用词是“引导”，看起来比较平和，也没有说下调的幅度。再看最后半句，说的是“阶段性”服务优惠，即使实施也不是永久下调服务费标准。当然，文件实施将增加未来美团增长的不确定性，在2020年一季度因为新冠疫情爆发，美团单季度收入就大幅下降，投资者担心收入再度大幅缩水，影响美团增长，并且不知道会持续多久。来源：理杏仁从估值方面来看，其实投资者一直不知道如何给美团估值，尽管美团体量做得很大，并且使用频率极高，大部分人每天都要打开好几次，无论是点外卖还是骑共享单车。在2020年二季度到2021年一季度，美团快速从疫情中恢复过来，收入规模新高，APP也成为本地生活的巨无霸。来源：理杏仁尽管盈利能力并不稳定，但美团被看作中国互联网的核心资产之一，既然是核心资产还需要知道怎么估值吗？买就完了，市销率从4倍拉到22倍。今天暴跌之后，估值依然","text":"今天过了下午2点半，美团突然跳水，仅仅一个小时下跌超过17%，最后收跌14.86%。美团作为港股超万亿港币市值的互联网公司，直接带崩其他互联网公司。阿里巴巴、快手、B站悉数下跌，腾讯是里面算稳的了。导致美团下跌的原因来自一份由国家发改委等14部门印发《关于促进服务业领域困难行业恢复发展的若干政策》文件，这份文件的第二大部分的第12条提到了“引导外卖等互联网平台企业进一步下调餐饮业商户服务费标准”。尽管文件中没有进一步细化“商户服务费”，不过大部分人一看就明白说的是美团向餐饮店收的“佣金”。“佣金”一直以来都是美团的主要收入来源，根据2021年三季报，来自餐饮的佣金占总收入47.6%。如果这部分收入下调，确实严重影响美团的收入规模。来源：美团2021年Q3财报回到这份文件本身，这份文件并不是针对美团的，这份文件分成了8部分，分别讨论了服务业、餐饮业、零售业、旅游业、运输业、民航业、防疫措施以及保障措施，关于互联网平台对商家的收费只是其中一点，并不是监管文件。并且用词是“引导”，看起来比较平和，也没有说下调的幅度。再看最后半句，说的是“阶段性”服务优惠，即使实施也不是永久下调服务费标准。当然，文件实施将增加未来美团增长的不确定性，在2020年一季度因为新冠疫情爆发，美团单季度收入就大幅下降，投资者担心收入再度大幅缩水，影响美团增长，并且不知道会持续多久。来源：理杏仁从估值方面来看，其实投资者一直不知道如何给美团估值，尽管美团体量做得很大，并且使用频率极高，大部分人每天都要打开好几次，无论是点外卖还是骑共享单车。在2020年二季度到2021年一季度，美团快速从疫情中恢复过来，收入规模新高，APP也成为本地生活的巨无霸。来源：理杏仁尽管盈利能力并不稳定，但美团被看作中国互联网的核心资产之一，既然是核心资产还需要知道怎么估值吗？买就完了，市销率从4倍拉到22倍。今天暴跌之后，估值依然","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d714575f15cf90da11453a3f000aaf2"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44d13093455b37131f14dacc679e642a"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b52b3e91885e0c0566fb1d7c30ec3e7"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/638886435","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3415,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":638508573,"gmtCreate":1645414877768,"gmtModify":1645414877959,"author":{"id":"3576627310629871","authorId":"3576627310629871","name":"MrHappy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db25aeb48bc88043744fb93a4c4c3be2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576627310629871","authorIdStr":"3576627310629871"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>sell??","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>sell??","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$sell??","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9403ee231ae7e22bb5229f9fcfddde54","width":"1080","height":"2370"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/638508573","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3495,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":638508251,"gmtCreate":1645414860192,"gmtModify":1645414860402,"author":{"id":"3576627310629871","authorId":"3576627310629871","name":"MrHappy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db25aeb48bc88043744fb93a4c4c3be2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576627310629871","authorIdStr":"3576627310629871"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>sian","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>sian","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$sian","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a95cf47dba195eedfe69d0f23ff9cda","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/638508251","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3124,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":638508671,"gmtCreate":1645414813724,"gmtModify":1645414813937,"author":{"id":"3576627310629871","authorId":"3576627310629871","name":"MrHappy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db25aeb48bc88043744fb93a4c4c3be2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576627310629871","authorIdStr":"3576627310629871"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/638508671","repostId":"638079629","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":638079629,"gmtCreate":1645005301607,"gmtModify":1645052960492,"author":{"id":"3573593808442035","authorId":"3573593808442035","name":"zhuzhu518","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/272cc270b288063fa925b5f2c1a0bb76","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573593808442035","authorIdStr":"3573593808442035"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$</a>有没有可能跟特斯拉一样，财报凶猛但是结局惨淡?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$</a>有没有可能跟特斯拉一样，财报凶猛但是结局惨淡?","text":"$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$有没有可能跟特斯拉一样，财报凶猛但是结局惨淡?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/638079629","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2753,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":638508841,"gmtCreate":1645414800355,"gmtModify":1645414804183,"author":{"id":"3576627310629871","authorId":"3576627310629871","name":"MrHappy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db25aeb48bc88043744fb93a4c4c3be2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576627310629871","authorIdStr":"3576627310629871"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Lol","listText":"Lol","text":"Lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/638508841","repostId":"631254927","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":631254927,"gmtCreate":1644806073048,"gmtModify":1744960788336,"author":{"id":"4094088458050290","authorId":"4094088458050290","name":"雪豹财经社","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a45ac8eeb061d38f10388a40dc43d23","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094088458050290","authorIdStr":"4094088458050290"},"themes":[],"title":"从5万亿到2万亿：抄底阿里的时机到了吗？","htmlText":"雪豹财经社·特约撰稿&nbsp;| 巴 安封面来源 | 摄图网16个月前，2020年10月，阿里巴巴创下319美元/股的历史最高，折合成人民币，市值超5万亿。2022年情人节前的最后一个交易日（2月11日），阿里收盘价为122.25美元，市值约2.1万亿人民币。与最高价相比，已经跌去约62%。抄底阿里的时机到了吗？一个人的投资方式，取决于对投资这件事的认知。到目前为止，我始终相信3个基本假设： 短期而言，股价的涨跌无法预测。 长期而言，股票价格会回归公司价值。 公司价值，是由其持续创造强劲的正向现金流的能力决定的。 由于“股价的短期涨跌无法预测”，“能否抄底”这个问题，不可能有一个可靠的短期答案。但长期而言，“股票价格会回归公司价值”。因此，比抄底更值得思考的问题是：目前价格下，阿里的价值被低估了吗？简单看PE（市盈率），阿里股价处于相对便宜的区间。 和历史对比，它至少在过去3年内都是最便宜的。阿里2022年1月底的PE TTM（滚动市盈率）在16倍左右，2020年底、2019年底分别是31和43。 和同业对比，亚马逊的PE是60倍左右。 但PE只是相对估值，只能说明阿里相对过去便宜，相对同业便宜。但它无法说明：阿里的业务，是否现在也就值这么多钱。目前的市场情绪，对阿里的未来盈利前景预期极度悲观。反映在股价上，阿里股价从2021年初的约227美元，下跌到2022年2月初的120美元左右。支撑这种悲观情绪的，主要是以下4个观点。 阿里的市场优势地位正在被拼多多、直播电商持续蚕食。 阿里未来缺乏新的业务增长点。 持续的监管压力（如反垄断等）将压制阿里盈利能力。 阿里作为“基础设施”，理应参照“公用事业”来估值。而公用事业的估值水平，理应偏低。 这些观点在多大程度上是对的？如果是对的，影响几何？基于事实、数据，我们逐个讨论。优势地位会被颠覆吗？老对手拼多多，以及以抖音、快手为代表","listText":"雪豹财经社·特约撰稿&nbsp;| 巴 安封面来源 | 摄图网16个月前，2020年10月，阿里巴巴创下319美元/股的历史最高，折合成人民币，市值超5万亿。2022年情人节前的最后一个交易日（2月11日），阿里收盘价为122.25美元，市值约2.1万亿人民币。与最高价相比，已经跌去约62%。抄底阿里的时机到了吗？一个人的投资方式，取决于对投资这件事的认知。到目前为止，我始终相信3个基本假设： 短期而言，股价的涨跌无法预测。 长期而言，股票价格会回归公司价值。 公司价值，是由其持续创造强劲的正向现金流的能力决定的。 由于“股价的短期涨跌无法预测”，“能否抄底”这个问题，不可能有一个可靠的短期答案。但长期而言，“股票价格会回归公司价值”。因此，比抄底更值得思考的问题是：目前价格下，阿里的价值被低估了吗？简单看PE（市盈率），阿里股价处于相对便宜的区间。 和历史对比，它至少在过去3年内都是最便宜的。阿里2022年1月底的PE TTM（滚动市盈率）在16倍左右，2020年底、2019年底分别是31和43。 和同业对比，亚马逊的PE是60倍左右。 但PE只是相对估值，只能说明阿里相对过去便宜，相对同业便宜。但它无法说明：阿里的业务，是否现在也就值这么多钱。目前的市场情绪，对阿里的未来盈利前景预期极度悲观。反映在股价上，阿里股价从2021年初的约227美元，下跌到2022年2月初的120美元左右。支撑这种悲观情绪的，主要是以下4个观点。 阿里的市场优势地位正在被拼多多、直播电商持续蚕食。 阿里未来缺乏新的业务增长点。 持续的监管压力（如反垄断等）将压制阿里盈利能力。 阿里作为“基础设施”，理应参照“公用事业”来估值。而公用事业的估值水平，理应偏低。 这些观点在多大程度上是对的？如果是对的，影响几何？基于事实、数据，我们逐个讨论。优势地位会被颠覆吗？老对手拼多多，以及以抖音、快手为代表","text":"雪豹财经社·特约撰稿 | 巴 安封面来源 | 摄图网16个月前，2020年10月，阿里巴巴创下319美元/股的历史最高，折合成人民币，市值超5万亿。2022年情人节前的最后一个交易日（2月11日），阿里收盘价为122.25美元，市值约2.1万亿人民币。与最高价相比，已经跌去约62%。抄底阿里的时机到了吗？一个人的投资方式，取决于对投资这件事的认知。到目前为止，我始终相信3个基本假设： 短期而言，股价的涨跌无法预测。 长期而言，股票价格会回归公司价值。 公司价值，是由其持续创造强劲的正向现金流的能力决定的。 由于“股价的短期涨跌无法预测”，“能否抄底”这个问题，不可能有一个可靠的短期答案。但长期而言，“股票价格会回归公司价值”。因此，比抄底更值得思考的问题是：目前价格下，阿里的价值被低估了吗？简单看PE（市盈率），阿里股价处于相对便宜的区间。 和历史对比，它至少在过去3年内都是最便宜的。阿里2022年1月底的PE TTM（滚动市盈率）在16倍左右，2020年底、2019年底分别是31和43。 和同业对比，亚马逊的PE是60倍左右。 但PE只是相对估值，只能说明阿里相对过去便宜，相对同业便宜。但它无法说明：阿里的业务，是否现在也就值这么多钱。目前的市场情绪，对阿里的未来盈利前景预期极度悲观。反映在股价上，阿里股价从2021年初的约227美元，下跌到2022年2月初的120美元左右。支撑这种悲观情绪的，主要是以下4个观点。 阿里的市场优势地位正在被拼多多、直播电商持续蚕食。 阿里未来缺乏新的业务增长点。 持续的监管压力（如反垄断等）将压制阿里盈利能力。 阿里作为“基础设施”，理应参照“公用事业”来估值。而公用事业的估值水平，理应偏低。 这些观点在多大程度上是对的？如果是对的，影响几何？基于事实、数据，我们逐个讨论。优势地位会被颠覆吗？老对手拼多多，以及以抖音、快手为代表","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79765dbb3a231576a0e3af001d2eb78d","width":"1080","height":"606"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/631254927","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":1,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3186,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":638508158,"gmtCreate":1645414786869,"gmtModify":1645414803849,"author":{"id":"3576627310629871","authorId":"3576627310629871","name":"MrHappy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db25aeb48bc88043744fb93a4c4c3be2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576627310629871","authorIdStr":"3576627310629871"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Meh","listText":"Meh","text":"Meh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/638508158","repostId":"638886435","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":638886435,"gmtCreate":1645175026495,"gmtModify":1645180736938,"author":{"id":"3519157433193136","authorId":"3519157433193136","name":"美港股观察社","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfcc85fddcd77379cda6138d51be4c17","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3519157433193136","authorIdStr":"3519157433193136"},"themes":[],"title":"美团暴跌究竟怎么回事？","htmlText":"今天过了下午2点半，美团突然跳水，仅仅一个小时下跌超过17%，最后收跌14.86%。美团作为港股超万亿港币市值的互联网公司，直接带崩其他互联网公司。阿里巴巴、快手、B站悉数下跌，腾讯是里面算稳的了。导致美团下跌的原因来自一份由国家发改委等14部门印发《关于促进服务业领域困难行业恢复发展的若干政策》文件，这份文件的第二大部分的第12条提到了“引导外卖等互联网平台企业进一步下调餐饮业商户服务费标准”。尽管文件中没有进一步细化“商户服务费”，不过大部分人一看就明白说的是美团向餐饮店收的“佣金”。“佣金”一直以来都是美团的主要收入来源，根据2021年三季报，来自餐饮的佣金占总收入47.6%。如果这部分收入下调，确实严重影响美团的收入规模。来源：美团2021年Q3财报回到这份文件本身，这份文件并不是针对美团的，这份文件分成了8部分，分别讨论了服务业、餐饮业、零售业、旅游业、运输业、民航业、防疫措施以及保障措施，关于互联网平台对商家的收费只是其中一点，并不是监管文件。并且用词是“引导”，看起来比较平和，也没有说下调的幅度。再看最后半句，说的是“阶段性”服务优惠，即使实施也不是永久下调服务费标准。当然，文件实施将增加未来美团增长的不确定性，在2020年一季度因为新冠疫情爆发，美团单季度收入就大幅下降，投资者担心收入再度大幅缩水，影响美团增长，并且不知道会持续多久。来源：理杏仁从估值方面来看，其实投资者一直不知道如何给美团估值，尽管美团体量做得很大，并且使用频率极高，大部分人每天都要打开好几次，无论是点外卖还是骑共享单车。在2020年二季度到2021年一季度，美团快速从疫情中恢复过来，收入规模新高，APP也成为本地生活的巨无霸。来源：理杏仁尽管盈利能力并不稳定，但美团被看作中国互联网的核心资产之一，既然是核心资产还需要知道怎么估值吗？买就完了，市销率从4倍拉到22倍。今天暴跌之后，估值依然","listText":"今天过了下午2点半，美团突然跳水，仅仅一个小时下跌超过17%，最后收跌14.86%。美团作为港股超万亿港币市值的互联网公司，直接带崩其他互联网公司。阿里巴巴、快手、B站悉数下跌，腾讯是里面算稳的了。导致美团下跌的原因来自一份由国家发改委等14部门印发《关于促进服务业领域困难行业恢复发展的若干政策》文件，这份文件的第二大部分的第12条提到了“引导外卖等互联网平台企业进一步下调餐饮业商户服务费标准”。尽管文件中没有进一步细化“商户服务费”，不过大部分人一看就明白说的是美团向餐饮店收的“佣金”。“佣金”一直以来都是美团的主要收入来源，根据2021年三季报，来自餐饮的佣金占总收入47.6%。如果这部分收入下调，确实严重影响美团的收入规模。来源：美团2021年Q3财报回到这份文件本身，这份文件并不是针对美团的，这份文件分成了8部分，分别讨论了服务业、餐饮业、零售业、旅游业、运输业、民航业、防疫措施以及保障措施，关于互联网平台对商家的收费只是其中一点，并不是监管文件。并且用词是“引导”，看起来比较平和，也没有说下调的幅度。再看最后半句，说的是“阶段性”服务优惠，即使实施也不是永久下调服务费标准。当然，文件实施将增加未来美团增长的不确定性，在2020年一季度因为新冠疫情爆发，美团单季度收入就大幅下降，投资者担心收入再度大幅缩水，影响美团增长，并且不知道会持续多久。来源：理杏仁从估值方面来看，其实投资者一直不知道如何给美团估值，尽管美团体量做得很大，并且使用频率极高，大部分人每天都要打开好几次，无论是点外卖还是骑共享单车。在2020年二季度到2021年一季度，美团快速从疫情中恢复过来，收入规模新高，APP也成为本地生活的巨无霸。来源：理杏仁尽管盈利能力并不稳定，但美团被看作中国互联网的核心资产之一，既然是核心资产还需要知道怎么估值吗？买就完了，市销率从4倍拉到22倍。今天暴跌之后，估值依然","text":"今天过了下午2点半，美团突然跳水，仅仅一个小时下跌超过17%，最后收跌14.86%。美团作为港股超万亿港币市值的互联网公司，直接带崩其他互联网公司。阿里巴巴、快手、B站悉数下跌，腾讯是里面算稳的了。导致美团下跌的原因来自一份由国家发改委等14部门印发《关于促进服务业领域困难行业恢复发展的若干政策》文件，这份文件的第二大部分的第12条提到了“引导外卖等互联网平台企业进一步下调餐饮业商户服务费标准”。尽管文件中没有进一步细化“商户服务费”，不过大部分人一看就明白说的是美团向餐饮店收的“佣金”。“佣金”一直以来都是美团的主要收入来源，根据2021年三季报，来自餐饮的佣金占总收入47.6%。如果这部分收入下调，确实严重影响美团的收入规模。来源：美团2021年Q3财报回到这份文件本身，这份文件并不是针对美团的，这份文件分成了8部分，分别讨论了服务业、餐饮业、零售业、旅游业、运输业、民航业、防疫措施以及保障措施，关于互联网平台对商家的收费只是其中一点，并不是监管文件。并且用词是“引导”，看起来比较平和，也没有说下调的幅度。再看最后半句，说的是“阶段性”服务优惠，即使实施也不是永久下调服务费标准。当然，文件实施将增加未来美团增长的不确定性，在2020年一季度因为新冠疫情爆发，美团单季度收入就大幅下降，投资者担心收入再度大幅缩水，影响美团增长，并且不知道会持续多久。来源：理杏仁从估值方面来看，其实投资者一直不知道如何给美团估值，尽管美团体量做得很大，并且使用频率极高，大部分人每天都要打开好几次，无论是点外卖还是骑共享单车。在2020年二季度到2021年一季度，美团快速从疫情中恢复过来，收入规模新高，APP也成为本地生活的巨无霸。来源：理杏仁尽管盈利能力并不稳定，但美团被看作中国互联网的核心资产之一，既然是核心资产还需要知道怎么估值吗？买就完了，市销率从4倍拉到22倍。今天暴跌之后，估值依然","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d714575f15cf90da11453a3f000aaf2"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44d13093455b37131f14dacc679e642a"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b52b3e91885e0c0566fb1d7c30ec3e7"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/638886435","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1472,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":638298550,"gmtCreate":1645323391367,"gmtModify":1645323391529,"author":{"id":"3576627310629871","authorId":"3576627310629871","name":"MrHappy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db25aeb48bc88043744fb93a4c4c3be2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576627310629871","authorIdStr":"3576627310629871"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>die","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>die","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$die","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/875185db4de3fcbc1318762c5642da25","width":"1080","height":"2370"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/638298550","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1041,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":638298298,"gmtCreate":1645323372445,"gmtModify":1645323372636,"author":{"id":"3576627310629871","authorId":"3576627310629871","name":"MrHappy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db25aeb48bc88043744fb93a4c4c3be2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576627310629871","authorIdStr":"3576627310629871"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/638298298","repostId":"633739070","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":633739070,"gmtCreate":1644314423724,"gmtModify":1644807756405,"author":{"id":"3455059019369891","authorId":"3455059019369891","name":"Iverson","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fa68ce61d88742ab3622a5f7f8d6ff9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3455059019369891","authorIdStr":"3455059019369891"},"themes":[],"title":"越南股指竟跑赢美股，原来我们输的不只有足球","htmlText":"关键的世界杯12强赛，世界排名第74的中国遭遇到世界排名第98的越南，原本是一场非赢不可的比赛，很难相信最终比分会定格在1：3，中国队完败。 中越一役又一次揭露了20多年来中国足球的现状：瘫痪的青训，薄弱的青少年基础，全国不到一万的注册运动员，以及身边屈指可数的足球场。 赛后，知名足球解说刘建宏的一段话被热传，暗讽不仅足球输了，股指在这几年也跑输越南。那一天，中国足球与暴跌的A股“交相辉映”。 回看过去五年（2017-2021），能跑赢美指的并不多见，越南胡志明指数就是其中一个。期间，美股标普500指数上涨112%，越南胡志明指数VNINDEX上涨129%，而上证指数5年间只涨了可怜的17.2%。 越南是东南亚最有发展前景的国家之一。过去几年，人口红利、政策红利吸引中国等其他国家在越南设厂，带动该国经济持续高增长（GDP增速在6%-7%之间），企业盈利逐步释放。宽松政策周期搭配上强劲的经济增长，吸引了大量增量资金进入，使得越南胡志明指数领涨全球的新兴市场。 那么作为散户，如何享受越南高增长红利，更好的投资越南呢？最好的办法就是直接购买指数ETF。 虽然还有一些其他新兴市场ETF也持有少量越南股票，但目前表现最好的越南ETF是VanEck Vectors越南ETF(VNM)，VNM是投资者在美股市场可能找到的唯一纯越南ETF。该基金跟踪MVIS越南指数MSCI Vietname Index，该指数反映了在越南运营的最大、流动性最强的公司的业绩。 VNM是一种多头ETF，投资于各种市值的股票。该指数包括了在越南和其他地方注册的公司，但这些公司至少有50%的收入来自越南。其中，大约超过三分之二公司注册在越南，另外20%的注册在韩国。房地产行业在该基金中所占比重最大，接近净资产的28%。该基金遵循混合策略，投资于成长和价值股。 值得注意的是，这里的MVIS越南指数是由摩根士丹利编制","listText":"关键的世界杯12强赛，世界排名第74的中国遭遇到世界排名第98的越南，原本是一场非赢不可的比赛，很难相信最终比分会定格在1：3，中国队完败。 中越一役又一次揭露了20多年来中国足球的现状：瘫痪的青训，薄弱的青少年基础，全国不到一万的注册运动员，以及身边屈指可数的足球场。 赛后，知名足球解说刘建宏的一段话被热传，暗讽不仅足球输了，股指在这几年也跑输越南。那一天，中国足球与暴跌的A股“交相辉映”。 回看过去五年（2017-2021），能跑赢美指的并不多见，越南胡志明指数就是其中一个。期间，美股标普500指数上涨112%，越南胡志明指数VNINDEX上涨129%，而上证指数5年间只涨了可怜的17.2%。 越南是东南亚最有发展前景的国家之一。过去几年，人口红利、政策红利吸引中国等其他国家在越南设厂，带动该国经济持续高增长（GDP增速在6%-7%之间），企业盈利逐步释放。宽松政策周期搭配上强劲的经济增长，吸引了大量增量资金进入，使得越南胡志明指数领涨全球的新兴市场。 那么作为散户，如何享受越南高增长红利，更好的投资越南呢？最好的办法就是直接购买指数ETF。 虽然还有一些其他新兴市场ETF也持有少量越南股票，但目前表现最好的越南ETF是VanEck Vectors越南ETF(VNM)，VNM是投资者在美股市场可能找到的唯一纯越南ETF。该基金跟踪MVIS越南指数MSCI Vietname Index，该指数反映了在越南运营的最大、流动性最强的公司的业绩。 VNM是一种多头ETF，投资于各种市值的股票。该指数包括了在越南和其他地方注册的公司，但这些公司至少有50%的收入来自越南。其中，大约超过三分之二公司注册在越南，另外20%的注册在韩国。房地产行业在该基金中所占比重最大，接近净资产的28%。该基金遵循混合策略，投资于成长和价值股。 值得注意的是，这里的MVIS越南指数是由摩根士丹利编制","text":"关键的世界杯12强赛，世界排名第74的中国遭遇到世界排名第98的越南，原本是一场非赢不可的比赛，很难相信最终比分会定格在1：3，中国队完败。 中越一役又一次揭露了20多年来中国足球的现状：瘫痪的青训，薄弱的青少年基础，全国不到一万的注册运动员，以及身边屈指可数的足球场。 赛后，知名足球解说刘建宏的一段话被热传，暗讽不仅足球输了，股指在这几年也跑输越南。那一天，中国足球与暴跌的A股“交相辉映”。 回看过去五年（2017-2021），能跑赢美指的并不多见，越南胡志明指数就是其中一个。期间，美股标普500指数上涨112%，越南胡志明指数VNINDEX上涨129%，而上证指数5年间只涨了可怜的17.2%。 越南是东南亚最有发展前景的国家之一。过去几年，人口红利、政策红利吸引中国等其他国家在越南设厂，带动该国经济持续高增长（GDP增速在6%-7%之间），企业盈利逐步释放。宽松政策周期搭配上强劲的经济增长，吸引了大量增量资金进入，使得越南胡志明指数领涨全球的新兴市场。 那么作为散户，如何享受越南高增长红利，更好的投资越南呢？最好的办法就是直接购买指数ETF。 虽然还有一些其他新兴市场ETF也持有少量越南股票，但目前表现最好的越南ETF是VanEck Vectors越南ETF(VNM)，VNM是投资者在美股市场可能找到的唯一纯越南ETF。该基金跟踪MVIS越南指数MSCI Vietname Index，该指数反映了在越南运营的最大、流动性最强的公司的业绩。 VNM是一种多头ETF，投资于各种市值的股票。该指数包括了在越南和其他地方注册的公司，但这些公司至少有50%的收入来自越南。其中，大约超过三分之二公司注册在越南，另外20%的注册在韩国。房地产行业在该基金中所占比重最大，接近净资产的28%。该基金遵循混合策略，投资于成长和价值股。 值得注意的是，这里的MVIS越南指数是由摩根士丹利编制","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ecf442343528d35f57db9d5ea884c67","width":"828","height":"615"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa3b17eaf48f8494613c71f2893ac330","width":"562","height":"375"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/152c4a23493bc50d3fb1803091c37c66","width":"669","height":"457"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/633739070","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1198,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":638298675,"gmtCreate":1645323365707,"gmtModify":1645323365987,"author":{"id":"3576627310629871","authorId":"3576627310629871","name":"MrHappy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db25aeb48bc88043744fb93a4c4c3be2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576627310629871","authorIdStr":"3576627310629871"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/638298675","repostId":"633536939","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":633536939,"gmtCreate":1644213704969,"gmtModify":1644239700327,"author":{"id":"3527667591235607","authorId":"3527667591235607","name":"OptionPlus","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8009c23927adcf8b5e1e1d101178392","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667591235607","authorIdStr":"3527667591235607"},"themes":[],"title":"如何用期权玩转财报季（6）：连高盛都推荐跨式期权了！","htmlText":"从过去两周的财报表现可以很清晰的看到这个财报季个股产生剧烈的单日波动，这种时候，跨式期权成为最适合的策略，无论财报后方向是涨是跌，交易者可以从暴涨暴跌中获益。跨式期权非常普遍被运用于赌财报，因为这是一个无方向性策略，同时买call和put，无论股价涨跌，只幅度足够大，就可以用一边的收益覆盖两边的成本并赚额外的收益，本次财报季的极端波动就特别适合做跨式期权。 我在 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/694622763\" target=\"_blank\">如何用期权玩转财报季（5）：跨式期权还可以这么做？</a> 中介绍过跨式的两种Straddle 和 Strangle： Straddle通常被称为马鞍式，指的是买行权价和到期日都相同的call 和 put的组合，行权价通常取接近现价（ATM）。这种策略最大优势是不判断方向只赌波动大，也就是需要正股波动足够大使得一边的收益大于两边的成本，风险是正股价格波动不大，无法抵消购买两份期权的成本。 Strangle是异价跨式期权，也是宽跨式。跟Straddle的区别是，它是买行权价不同，但到期日一样的的call和put的组合，行权价通常是价外（OTM)。在价格突破（不管涨破还是跌破）某一区间时可以获利，也是赌波动率，适用于正股价格波动非常大的股票，典型的是成长股、科技股。 小型成长股财报后的大波动往往是意料之中的事，但上周大型科技股如亚马逊FB谷歌的波动冲击非常让人意外，这使得很多人开始押注跨式，我看高盛的衍生品研究员Vishal Vivek上周的报告称： \"The higher-than-normal moves have driven up the profitability of buying straddles around earnings. Buying the closest to at","listText":"从过去两周的财报表现可以很清晰的看到这个财报季个股产生剧烈的单日波动，这种时候，跨式期权成为最适合的策略，无论财报后方向是涨是跌，交易者可以从暴涨暴跌中获益。跨式期权非常普遍被运用于赌财报，因为这是一个无方向性策略，同时买call和put，无论股价涨跌，只幅度足够大，就可以用一边的收益覆盖两边的成本并赚额外的收益，本次财报季的极端波动就特别适合做跨式期权。 我在 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/694622763\" target=\"_blank\">如何用期权玩转财报季（5）：跨式期权还可以这么做？</a> 中介绍过跨式的两种Straddle 和 Strangle： Straddle通常被称为马鞍式，指的是买行权价和到期日都相同的call 和 put的组合，行权价通常取接近现价（ATM）。这种策略最大优势是不判断方向只赌波动大，也就是需要正股波动足够大使得一边的收益大于两边的成本，风险是正股价格波动不大，无法抵消购买两份期权的成本。 Strangle是异价跨式期权，也是宽跨式。跟Straddle的区别是，它是买行权价不同，但到期日一样的的call和put的组合，行权价通常是价外（OTM)。在价格突破（不管涨破还是跌破）某一区间时可以获利，也是赌波动率，适用于正股价格波动非常大的股票，典型的是成长股、科技股。 小型成长股财报后的大波动往往是意料之中的事，但上周大型科技股如亚马逊FB谷歌的波动冲击非常让人意外，这使得很多人开始押注跨式，我看高盛的衍生品研究员Vishal Vivek上周的报告称： \"The higher-than-normal moves have driven up the profitability of buying straddles around earnings. Buying the closest to at","text":"从过去两周的财报表现可以很清晰的看到这个财报季个股产生剧烈的单日波动，这种时候，跨式期权成为最适合的策略，无论财报后方向是涨是跌，交易者可以从暴涨暴跌中获益。跨式期权非常普遍被运用于赌财报，因为这是一个无方向性策略，同时买call和put，无论股价涨跌，只幅度足够大，就可以用一边的收益覆盖两边的成本并赚额外的收益，本次财报季的极端波动就特别适合做跨式期权。 我在 如何用期权玩转财报季（5）：跨式期权还可以这么做？ 中介绍过跨式的两种Straddle 和 Strangle： Straddle通常被称为马鞍式，指的是买行权价和到期日都相同的call 和 put的组合，行权价通常取接近现价（ATM）。这种策略最大优势是不判断方向只赌波动大，也就是需要正股波动足够大使得一边的收益大于两边的成本，风险是正股价格波动不大，无法抵消购买两份期权的成本。 Strangle是异价跨式期权，也是宽跨式。跟Straddle的区别是，它是买行权价不同，但到期日一样的的call和put的组合，行权价通常是价外（OTM)。在价格突破（不管涨破还是跌破）某一区间时可以获利，也是赌波动率，适用于正股价格波动非常大的股票，典型的是成长股、科技股。 小型成长股财报后的大波动往往是意料之中的事，但上周大型科技股如亚马逊FB谷歌的波动冲击非常让人意外，这使得很多人开始押注跨式，我看高盛的衍生品研究员Vishal Vivek上周的报告称： \"The higher-than-normal moves have driven up the profitability of buying straddles around earnings. Buying the closest to at","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07515ab57889a70fa36fc947b1292195","width":"2136","height":"1314"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf257ffd2638636e773ed8fb6b93f41e","width":"2154","height":"1330"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a951a9a5cead9cc55f5a753128a349e4","width":"1392","height":"550"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/633536939","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1483,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":638298845,"gmtCreate":1645323358000,"gmtModify":1645323358231,"author":{"id":"3576627310629871","authorId":"3576627310629871","name":"MrHappy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db25aeb48bc88043744fb93a4c4c3be2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576627310629871","authorIdStr":"3576627310629871"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/638298845","repostId":"631012977","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":631012977,"gmtCreate":1644383580239,"gmtModify":1644393140665,"author":{"id":"3527667591235607","authorId":"3527667591235607","name":"OptionPlus","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8009c23927adcf8b5e1e1d101178392","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667591235607","authorIdStr":"3527667591235607"},"themes":[],"title":"盘整半年，中概股的机会在哪里？","htmlText":"昨晚中概股迎来了久违的反弹，不知道是不是中国的基金经理终于上班了。 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a> 虽然还没有走出盘整区间，但周线的关键支撑守得严严实实，用长达半年的时候完成周线级别双底，几乎确定不会跌破下方420-430一线，只是上面的空间在哪里还不确定，先看区间的上沿500-510一线再看会不会突破，这时候比较好的机会是卖下方420的put，我卖的是400，是过年期间相对保守了。当然不卖put，直接做波段也是可以，腾讯的宽幅震荡带来的波段收益也很可观。需要注意的是公司将于3月发布Q4财报，但我直觉认为这次财报跟上次一样会平淡无奇，波澜不惊。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">$美团-W(03690)$</a> 同样有一个双底，但如果做卖put，卖美团不如卖腾讯稳妥，美团最大的雷是不知道腾讯什么时候减持，这个风险还没释放都还不能算高枕无忧。如果买正股，目前价格离200的底部仅10%，还可以，上面压制着年线，前两次反弹都是年线冲关未遂，波段就是到250-260左右。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a> 趋势太差，弃。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">$快手-W(01024)$</a> 底部打磨太完美，从400多跌下来，一个好的反弹没有到150也要到120。我已经买入，是买的call，在上一波反弹中我做了80-100的波段。 说一说为什么快手我不做sell put？主要是价外的put太便宜权利金不香。行权价太近的，万一黑","listText":"昨晚中概股迎来了久违的反弹，不知道是不是中国的基金经理终于上班了。 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a> 虽然还没有走出盘整区间，但周线的关键支撑守得严严实实，用长达半年的时候完成周线级别双底，几乎确定不会跌破下方420-430一线，只是上面的空间在哪里还不确定，先看区间的上沿500-510一线再看会不会突破，这时候比较好的机会是卖下方420的put，我卖的是400，是过年期间相对保守了。当然不卖put，直接做波段也是可以，腾讯的宽幅震荡带来的波段收益也很可观。需要注意的是公司将于3月发布Q4财报，但我直觉认为这次财报跟上次一样会平淡无奇，波澜不惊。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">$美团-W(03690)$</a> 同样有一个双底，但如果做卖put，卖美团不如卖腾讯稳妥，美团最大的雷是不知道腾讯什么时候减持，这个风险还没释放都还不能算高枕无忧。如果买正股，目前价格离200的底部仅10%，还可以，上面压制着年线，前两次反弹都是年线冲关未遂，波段就是到250-260左右。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a> 趋势太差，弃。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">$快手-W(01024)$</a> 底部打磨太完美，从400多跌下来，一个好的反弹没有到150也要到120。我已经买入，是买的call，在上一波反弹中我做了80-100的波段。 说一说为什么快手我不做sell put？主要是价外的put太便宜权利金不香。行权价太近的，万一黑","text":"昨晚中概股迎来了久违的反弹，不知道是不是中国的基金经理终于上班了。 $腾讯控股(00700)$ 虽然还没有走出盘整区间，但周线的关键支撑守得严严实实，用长达半年的时候完成周线级别双底，几乎确定不会跌破下方420-430一线，只是上面的空间在哪里还不确定，先看区间的上沿500-510一线再看会不会突破，这时候比较好的机会是卖下方420的put，我卖的是400，是过年期间相对保守了。当然不卖put，直接做波段也是可以，腾讯的宽幅震荡带来的波段收益也很可观。需要注意的是公司将于3月发布Q4财报，但我直觉认为这次财报跟上次一样会平淡无奇，波澜不惊。$美团-W(03690)$ 同样有一个双底，但如果做卖put，卖美团不如卖腾讯稳妥，美团最大的雷是不知道腾讯什么时候减持，这个风险还没释放都还不能算高枕无忧。如果买正股，目前价格离200的底部仅10%，还可以，上面压制着年线，前两次反弹都是年线冲关未遂，波段就是到250-260左右。$小米集团-W(01810)$ 趋势太差，弃。$快手-W(01024)$ 底部打磨太完美，从400多跌下来，一个好的反弹没有到150也要到120。我已经买入，是买的call，在上一波反弹中我做了80-100的波段。 说一说为什么快手我不做sell put？主要是价外的put太便宜权利金不香。行权价太近的，万一黑","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b630304dc04a6f7aa7cbf66a4f6d3891","width":"2188","height":"1312"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53f6bf94ebd3e0262227fee2b646fdb3","width":"2130","height":"1348"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1543e50b1d64636abaf7ad1a08985d6b","width":"2202","height":"1552"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/631012977","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":10,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1028,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":638646308,"gmtCreate":1645271734955,"gmtModify":1645271735129,"author":{"id":"3576627310629871","authorId":"3576627310629871","name":"MrHappy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db25aeb48bc88043744fb93a4c4c3be2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576627310629871","authorIdStr":"3576627310629871"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LMND\">$Lemonade, Inc.(LMND)$</a>hais","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LMND\">$Lemonade, Inc.(LMND)$</a>hais","text":"$Lemonade, Inc.(LMND)$hais","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/727cc921af02970ec1c66865b6f525b0","width":"1080","height":"2370"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/638646308","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1490,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":638646068,"gmtCreate":1645271726271,"gmtModify":1645271726483,"author":{"id":"3576627310629871","authorId":"3576627310629871","name":"MrHappy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db25aeb48bc88043744fb93a4c4c3be2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576627310629871","authorIdStr":"3576627310629871"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>cry","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>cry","text":"$NIO Inc.(NIO)$cry","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60971ad1a92caac69a5550eefe4bbf81","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/638646068","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":926,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":638154759,"gmtCreate":1645151060269,"gmtModify":1645151060429,"author":{"id":"3576627310629871","authorId":"3576627310629871","name":"MrHappy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db25aeb48bc88043744fb93a4c4c3be2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576627310629871","authorIdStr":"3576627310629871"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>what","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>what","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$what","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77111cda5fd9ab8fcd4d05c111d33031","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/638154759","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1118,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":638154566,"gmtCreate":1645151046362,"gmtModify":1645151046520,"author":{"id":"3576627310629871","authorId":"3576627310629871","name":"MrHappy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db25aeb48bc88043744fb93a4c4c3be2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576627310629871","authorIdStr":"3576627310629871"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/638154566","repostId":"633739070","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":633739070,"gmtCreate":1644314423724,"gmtModify":1644807756405,"author":{"id":"3455059019369891","authorId":"3455059019369891","name":"Iverson","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fa68ce61d88742ab3622a5f7f8d6ff9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3455059019369891","authorIdStr":"3455059019369891"},"themes":[],"title":"越南股指竟跑赢美股，原来我们输的不只有足球","htmlText":"关键的世界杯12强赛，世界排名第74的中国遭遇到世界排名第98的越南，原本是一场非赢不可的比赛，很难相信最终比分会定格在1：3，中国队完败。 中越一役又一次揭露了20多年来中国足球的现状：瘫痪的青训，薄弱的青少年基础，全国不到一万的注册运动员，以及身边屈指可数的足球场。 赛后，知名足球解说刘建宏的一段话被热传，暗讽不仅足球输了，股指在这几年也跑输越南。那一天，中国足球与暴跌的A股“交相辉映”。 回看过去五年（2017-2021），能跑赢美指的并不多见，越南胡志明指数就是其中一个。期间，美股标普500指数上涨112%，越南胡志明指数VNINDEX上涨129%，而上证指数5年间只涨了可怜的17.2%。 越南是东南亚最有发展前景的国家之一。过去几年，人口红利、政策红利吸引中国等其他国家在越南设厂，带动该国经济持续高增长（GDP增速在6%-7%之间），企业盈利逐步释放。宽松政策周期搭配上强劲的经济增长，吸引了大量增量资金进入，使得越南胡志明指数领涨全球的新兴市场。 那么作为散户，如何享受越南高增长红利，更好的投资越南呢？最好的办法就是直接购买指数ETF。 虽然还有一些其他新兴市场ETF也持有少量越南股票，但目前表现最好的越南ETF是VanEck Vectors越南ETF(VNM)，VNM是投资者在美股市场可能找到的唯一纯越南ETF。该基金跟踪MVIS越南指数MSCI Vietname Index，该指数反映了在越南运营的最大、流动性最强的公司的业绩。 VNM是一种多头ETF，投资于各种市值的股票。该指数包括了在越南和其他地方注册的公司，但这些公司至少有50%的收入来自越南。其中，大约超过三分之二公司注册在越南，另外20%的注册在韩国。房地产行业在该基金中所占比重最大，接近净资产的28%。该基金遵循混合策略，投资于成长和价值股。 值得注意的是，这里的MVIS越南指数是由摩根士丹利编制","listText":"关键的世界杯12强赛，世界排名第74的中国遭遇到世界排名第98的越南，原本是一场非赢不可的比赛，很难相信最终比分会定格在1：3，中国队完败。 中越一役又一次揭露了20多年来中国足球的现状：瘫痪的青训，薄弱的青少年基础，全国不到一万的注册运动员，以及身边屈指可数的足球场。 赛后，知名足球解说刘建宏的一段话被热传，暗讽不仅足球输了，股指在这几年也跑输越南。那一天，中国足球与暴跌的A股“交相辉映”。 回看过去五年（2017-2021），能跑赢美指的并不多见，越南胡志明指数就是其中一个。期间，美股标普500指数上涨112%，越南胡志明指数VNINDEX上涨129%，而上证指数5年间只涨了可怜的17.2%。 越南是东南亚最有发展前景的国家之一。过去几年，人口红利、政策红利吸引中国等其他国家在越南设厂，带动该国经济持续高增长（GDP增速在6%-7%之间），企业盈利逐步释放。宽松政策周期搭配上强劲的经济增长，吸引了大量增量资金进入，使得越南胡志明指数领涨全球的新兴市场。 那么作为散户，如何享受越南高增长红利，更好的投资越南呢？最好的办法就是直接购买指数ETF。 虽然还有一些其他新兴市场ETF也持有少量越南股票，但目前表现最好的越南ETF是VanEck Vectors越南ETF(VNM)，VNM是投资者在美股市场可能找到的唯一纯越南ETF。该基金跟踪MVIS越南指数MSCI Vietname Index，该指数反映了在越南运营的最大、流动性最强的公司的业绩。 VNM是一种多头ETF，投资于各种市值的股票。该指数包括了在越南和其他地方注册的公司，但这些公司至少有50%的收入来自越南。其中，大约超过三分之二公司注册在越南，另外20%的注册在韩国。房地产行业在该基金中所占比重最大，接近净资产的28%。该基金遵循混合策略，投资于成长和价值股。 值得注意的是，这里的MVIS越南指数是由摩根士丹利编制","text":"关键的世界杯12强赛，世界排名第74的中国遭遇到世界排名第98的越南，原本是一场非赢不可的比赛，很难相信最终比分会定格在1：3，中国队完败。 中越一役又一次揭露了20多年来中国足球的现状：瘫痪的青训，薄弱的青少年基础，全国不到一万的注册运动员，以及身边屈指可数的足球场。 赛后，知名足球解说刘建宏的一段话被热传，暗讽不仅足球输了，股指在这几年也跑输越南。那一天，中国足球与暴跌的A股“交相辉映”。 回看过去五年（2017-2021），能跑赢美指的并不多见，越南胡志明指数就是其中一个。期间，美股标普500指数上涨112%，越南胡志明指数VNINDEX上涨129%，而上证指数5年间只涨了可怜的17.2%。 越南是东南亚最有发展前景的国家之一。过去几年，人口红利、政策红利吸引中国等其他国家在越南设厂，带动该国经济持续高增长（GDP增速在6%-7%之间），企业盈利逐步释放。宽松政策周期搭配上强劲的经济增长，吸引了大量增量资金进入，使得越南胡志明指数领涨全球的新兴市场。 那么作为散户，如何享受越南高增长红利，更好的投资越南呢？最好的办法就是直接购买指数ETF。 虽然还有一些其他新兴市场ETF也持有少量越南股票，但目前表现最好的越南ETF是VanEck Vectors越南ETF(VNM)，VNM是投资者在美股市场可能找到的唯一纯越南ETF。该基金跟踪MVIS越南指数MSCI Vietname Index，该指数反映了在越南运营的最大、流动性最强的公司的业绩。 VNM是一种多头ETF，投资于各种市值的股票。该指数包括了在越南和其他地方注册的公司，但这些公司至少有50%的收入来自越南。其中，大约超过三分之二公司注册在越南，另外20%的注册在韩国。房地产行业在该基金中所占比重最大，接近净资产的28%。该基金遵循混合策略，投资于成长和价值股。 值得注意的是，这里的MVIS越南指数是由摩根士丹利编制","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ecf442343528d35f57db9d5ea884c67","width":"828","height":"615"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa3b17eaf48f8494613c71f2893ac330","width":"562","height":"375"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/152c4a23493bc50d3fb1803091c37c66","width":"669","height":"457"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/633739070","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1392,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":638154237,"gmtCreate":1645151039321,"gmtModify":1645151039516,"author":{"id":"3576627310629871","authorId":"3576627310629871","name":"MrHappy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db25aeb48bc88043744fb93a4c4c3be2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576627310629871","authorIdStr":"3576627310629871"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/638154237","repostId":"633536939","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":633536939,"gmtCreate":1644213704969,"gmtModify":1644239700327,"author":{"id":"3527667591235607","authorId":"3527667591235607","name":"OptionPlus","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8009c23927adcf8b5e1e1d101178392","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667591235607","authorIdStr":"3527667591235607"},"themes":[],"title":"如何用期权玩转财报季（6）：连高盛都推荐跨式期权了！","htmlText":"从过去两周的财报表现可以很清晰的看到这个财报季个股产生剧烈的单日波动，这种时候，跨式期权成为最适合的策略，无论财报后方向是涨是跌，交易者可以从暴涨暴跌中获益。跨式期权非常普遍被运用于赌财报，因为这是一个无方向性策略，同时买call和put，无论股价涨跌，只幅度足够大，就可以用一边的收益覆盖两边的成本并赚额外的收益，本次财报季的极端波动就特别适合做跨式期权。 我在 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/694622763\" target=\"_blank\">如何用期权玩转财报季（5）：跨式期权还可以这么做？</a> 中介绍过跨式的两种Straddle 和 Strangle： Straddle通常被称为马鞍式，指的是买行权价和到期日都相同的call 和 put的组合，行权价通常取接近现价（ATM）。这种策略最大优势是不判断方向只赌波动大，也就是需要正股波动足够大使得一边的收益大于两边的成本，风险是正股价格波动不大，无法抵消购买两份期权的成本。 Strangle是异价跨式期权，也是宽跨式。跟Straddle的区别是，它是买行权价不同，但到期日一样的的call和put的组合，行权价通常是价外（OTM)。在价格突破（不管涨破还是跌破）某一区间时可以获利，也是赌波动率，适用于正股价格波动非常大的股票，典型的是成长股、科技股。 小型成长股财报后的大波动往往是意料之中的事，但上周大型科技股如亚马逊FB谷歌的波动冲击非常让人意外，这使得很多人开始押注跨式，我看高盛的衍生品研究员Vishal Vivek上周的报告称： \"The higher-than-normal moves have driven up the profitability of buying straddles around earnings. Buying the closest to at","listText":"从过去两周的财报表现可以很清晰的看到这个财报季个股产生剧烈的单日波动，这种时候，跨式期权成为最适合的策略，无论财报后方向是涨是跌，交易者可以从暴涨暴跌中获益。跨式期权非常普遍被运用于赌财报，因为这是一个无方向性策略，同时买call和put，无论股价涨跌，只幅度足够大，就可以用一边的收益覆盖两边的成本并赚额外的收益，本次财报季的极端波动就特别适合做跨式期权。 我在 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/694622763\" target=\"_blank\">如何用期权玩转财报季（5）：跨式期权还可以这么做？</a> 中介绍过跨式的两种Straddle 和 Strangle： Straddle通常被称为马鞍式，指的是买行权价和到期日都相同的call 和 put的组合，行权价通常取接近现价（ATM）。这种策略最大优势是不判断方向只赌波动大，也就是需要正股波动足够大使得一边的收益大于两边的成本，风险是正股价格波动不大，无法抵消购买两份期权的成本。 Strangle是异价跨式期权，也是宽跨式。跟Straddle的区别是，它是买行权价不同，但到期日一样的的call和put的组合，行权价通常是价外（OTM)。在价格突破（不管涨破还是跌破）某一区间时可以获利，也是赌波动率，适用于正股价格波动非常大的股票，典型的是成长股、科技股。 小型成长股财报后的大波动往往是意料之中的事，但上周大型科技股如亚马逊FB谷歌的波动冲击非常让人意外，这使得很多人开始押注跨式，我看高盛的衍生品研究员Vishal Vivek上周的报告称： \"The higher-than-normal moves have driven up the profitability of buying straddles around earnings. Buying the closest to at","text":"从过去两周的财报表现可以很清晰的看到这个财报季个股产生剧烈的单日波动，这种时候，跨式期权成为最适合的策略，无论财报后方向是涨是跌，交易者可以从暴涨暴跌中获益。跨式期权非常普遍被运用于赌财报，因为这是一个无方向性策略，同时买call和put，无论股价涨跌，只幅度足够大，就可以用一边的收益覆盖两边的成本并赚额外的收益，本次财报季的极端波动就特别适合做跨式期权。 我在 如何用期权玩转财报季（5）：跨式期权还可以这么做？ 中介绍过跨式的两种Straddle 和 Strangle： Straddle通常被称为马鞍式，指的是买行权价和到期日都相同的call 和 put的组合，行权价通常取接近现价（ATM）。这种策略最大优势是不判断方向只赌波动大，也就是需要正股波动足够大使得一边的收益大于两边的成本，风险是正股价格波动不大，无法抵消购买两份期权的成本。 Strangle是异价跨式期权，也是宽跨式。跟Straddle的区别是，它是买行权价不同，但到期日一样的的call和put的组合，行权价通常是价外（OTM)。在价格突破（不管涨破还是跌破）某一区间时可以获利，也是赌波动率，适用于正股价格波动非常大的股票，典型的是成长股、科技股。 小型成长股财报后的大波动往往是意料之中的事，但上周大型科技股如亚马逊FB谷歌的波动冲击非常让人意外，这使得很多人开始押注跨式，我看高盛的衍生品研究员Vishal Vivek上周的报告称： \"The higher-than-normal moves have driven up the profitability of buying straddles around earnings. Buying the closest to at","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07515ab57889a70fa36fc947b1292195","width":"2136","height":"1314"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf257ffd2638636e773ed8fb6b93f41e","width":"2154","height":"1330"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a951a9a5cead9cc55f5a753128a349e4","width":"1392","height":"550"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/633536939","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":964,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":604977546,"gmtCreate":1639324270217,"gmtModify":1639324270485,"author":{"id":"3576627310629871","authorId":"3576627310629871","name":"MrHappy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db25aeb48bc88043744fb93a4c4c3be2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576627310629871","idStr":"3576627310629871"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Lol","listText":"Lol","text":"Lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604977546","repostId":"1103250344","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1103250344","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639280672,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1103250344?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-12 11:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US IPO Week Ahead: IoT solutions, wine, and satellites in a 3 IPO week<blockquote>美国 IPO 周即将到来：物联网解决方案、葡萄酒和卫星在 IPO 第三周</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103250344","media":"renaissancecap...","summary":"The IPO market is expected to stay relatively quiet in the week ahead with three IPOs scheduled to r","content":"<p>The IPO market is expected to stay relatively quiet in the week ahead with three IPOs scheduled to raise $789 million.</p><p><blockquote>预计未来一周IPO市场将保持相对平静，三次IPO计划筹集7.89亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> IoT solutions developer<b>Samsara</b>(IOT) plans to raise $753 million at an $11.6 billion market cap. This \"internet-of-things\" company provides a cloud-based platform that connects the assets of businesses with physical operations, enhancing operational efficiency and asset and employee productivity. Fast growing but highly unprofitable, Samsara saw double-digit growth for customers with $100k+ ARR in the 9mo FY22.</p><p><blockquote>物联网解决方案开发商<b>轮回</b>（物联网）计划以116亿美元的市值筹集7.53亿美元。这家“物联网”公司提供了一个基于云的平台，将企业的资产与物理运营连接起来，提高了运营效率以及资产和员工的生产力。快速增长但高度无利可图，Samsara 在 2022 财年的 9 个月中，ARR 超过 10 万美元的客户实现了两位数的增长。</blockquote></p><p> Wine brand<b>Fresh Vine Wine</b>(VINE) plans to raise $21 million at a $116 million market cap. This celebrity-founded company produces low carb, low calorie premium wines. Growing but highly unprofitable, Fresh Vine sells its wines through wholesale, retail, and DTC channels, and is able to conduct wholesale distribution in all 50 states and Puerto Rico.</p><p><blockquote>葡萄酒品牌<b>新鲜葡萄酒</b>(VINE) 计划以 1.16 亿美元的市值筹集 2100 万美元。这家名人创办的公司生产低碳水化合物、低热量的优质葡萄酒。Fresh Vine正在增长，但非常无利可图，它通过批发、零售和DTC渠道销售葡萄酒，并能够在所有50个州和波多黎各进行批发分销。</blockquote></p><p> Micro-cap satellite developer<b>Sidus Space</b>(SIDU) plans to raise $15 million at an $81 million market cap. This company provides commercial satellite services such as design, manufacture, launch, and data collection. &nbsp;Sidus Space has generated space-related manufacturing revenues to date, but is highly unprofitable with negative gross margin in the 9mo21.</p><p><blockquote>微帽卫星显影剂<b>Sidus空间</b>（SIDU）计划以8100万美元的市值筹集1500万美元。该公司提供商业卫星服务，如设计、制造、发射和数据收集。Sidus Space 迄今为止已产生与航天相关的制造收入，但在 2021 年 9 月毛利率为负，高度无利可图。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ead80e54642569e2b7b368c8d50dc265\" tg-width=\"1409\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1619493174116","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US IPO Week Ahead: IoT solutions, wine, and satellites in a 3 IPO week<blockquote>美国 IPO 周即将到来：物联网解决方案、葡萄酒和卫星在 IPO 第三周</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS IPO Week Ahead: IoT solutions, wine, and satellites in a 3 IPO week<blockquote>美国 IPO 周即将到来：物联网解决方案、葡萄酒和卫星在 IPO 第三周</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">renaissancecap...</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-12 11:44</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The IPO market is expected to stay relatively quiet in the week ahead with three IPOs scheduled to raise $789 million.</p><p><blockquote>预计未来一周IPO市场将保持相对平静，三次IPO计划筹集7.89亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> IoT solutions developer<b>Samsara</b>(IOT) plans to raise $753 million at an $11.6 billion market cap. This \"internet-of-things\" company provides a cloud-based platform that connects the assets of businesses with physical operations, enhancing operational efficiency and asset and employee productivity. Fast growing but highly unprofitable, Samsara saw double-digit growth for customers with $100k+ ARR in the 9mo FY22.</p><p><blockquote>物联网解决方案开发商<b>轮回</b>（物联网）计划以116亿美元的市值筹集7.53亿美元。这家“物联网”公司提供了一个基于云的平台，将企业的资产与物理运营连接起来，提高了运营效率以及资产和员工的生产力。快速增长但高度无利可图，Samsara 在 2022 财年的 9 个月中，ARR 超过 10 万美元的客户实现了两位数的增长。</blockquote></p><p> Wine brand<b>Fresh Vine Wine</b>(VINE) plans to raise $21 million at a $116 million market cap. This celebrity-founded company produces low carb, low calorie premium wines. Growing but highly unprofitable, Fresh Vine sells its wines through wholesale, retail, and DTC channels, and is able to conduct wholesale distribution in all 50 states and Puerto Rico.</p><p><blockquote>葡萄酒品牌<b>新鲜葡萄酒</b>(VINE) 计划以 1.16 亿美元的市值筹集 2100 万美元。这家名人创办的公司生产低碳水化合物、低热量的优质葡萄酒。Fresh Vine正在增长，但非常无利可图，它通过批发、零售和DTC渠道销售葡萄酒，并能够在所有50个州和波多黎各进行批发分销。</blockquote></p><p> Micro-cap satellite developer<b>Sidus Space</b>(SIDU) plans to raise $15 million at an $81 million market cap. This company provides commercial satellite services such as design, manufacture, launch, and data collection. &nbsp;Sidus Space has generated space-related manufacturing revenues to date, but is highly unprofitable with negative gross margin in the 9mo21.</p><p><blockquote>微帽卫星显影剂<b>Sidus空间</b>（SIDU）计划以8100万美元的市值筹集1500万美元。该公司提供商业卫星服务，如设计、制造、发射和数据收集。Sidus Space 迄今为止已产生与航天相关的制造收入，但在 2021 年 9 月毛利率为负，高度无利可图。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ead80e54642569e2b7b368c8d50dc265\" tg-width=\"1409\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/89474/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-IoT-solutions-wine-and-satellites-in-a-3-IPO-week\">renaissancecap...</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SIDU":"Sidus Space Inc.",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","IOT":"Samsara, Inc.",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/89474/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-IoT-solutions-wine-and-satellites-in-a-3-IPO-week","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103250344","content_text":"The IPO market is expected to stay relatively quiet in the week ahead with three IPOs scheduled to raise $789 million.\nIoT solutions developerSamsara(IOT) plans to raise $753 million at an $11.6 billion market cap. This \"internet-of-things\" company provides a cloud-based platform that connects the assets of businesses with physical operations, enhancing operational efficiency and asset and employee productivity. Fast growing but highly unprofitable, Samsara saw double-digit growth for customers with $100k+ ARR in the 9mo FY22.\nWine brandFresh Vine Wine(VINE) plans to raise $21 million at a $116 million market cap. This celebrity-founded company produces low carb, low calorie premium wines. Growing but highly unprofitable, Fresh Vine sells its wines through wholesale, retail, and DTC channels, and is able to conduct wholesale distribution in all 50 states and Puerto Rico.\nMicro-cap satellite developerSidus Space(SIDU) plans to raise $15 million at an $81 million market cap. This company provides commercial satellite services such as design, manufacture, launch, and data collection.  Sidus Space has generated space-related manufacturing revenues to date, but is highly unprofitable with negative gross margin in the 9mo21.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0,"VINE":0,"SIDU":0,".DJI":0,".SPX":0,"IOT":0}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":511,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":836472042,"gmtCreate":1629518885286,"gmtModify":1631883982622,"author":{"id":"3576627310629871","authorId":"3576627310629871","name":"MrHappy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db25aeb48bc88043744fb93a4c4c3be2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576627310629871","idStr":"3576627310629871"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Just buy!","listText":"Just buy!","text":"Just buy!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/836472042","repostId":"1107075259","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107075259","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629509852,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1107075259?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-21 09:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Ignore Elon Musk’s dancing distraction and face the dangers ahead for Tesla<blockquote>忽略埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）跳舞的干扰，直面特斯拉未来的危险</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107075259","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Investigations into automated-driving systems and the statements made about it by the electric-car company and its chief executive deserve more attention than their latest fanciful technology aspirations and timelines.$Investors$ should ignore Elon Musk’s latest dance and focus instead on the growing issues Tesla is facing because of its chief executive’s exaggerated claims about his company’s technological capabilities.At $Tesla Motors$’s AI Day late Thursday, self-named Technoking Musk said th","content":"<p>  <b>Investigations into automated-driving systems and the statements made about it by the electric-car company and its chief executive deserve more attention than their latest fanciful technology aspirations and timelines.</b>  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">Investors</a> should ignore Elon Musk’s latest dance and focus instead on the growing issues Tesla is facing because of its chief executive’s exaggerated claims about his company’s technological capabilities.</p><p><blockquote><b>对自动驾驶系统的调查以及这家电动汽车公司及其首席执行官就此发表的声明比他们最新的异想天开的技术抱负和时间表更值得关注。</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">投资者</a>应该忽略埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）的最新舞蹈，转而关注特斯拉因首席执行官夸大公司技术能力而面临的日益严重的问题。</blockquote></p><p> At <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a>’s&nbsp;AI Day late Thursday, self-named Technoking Musk said that the company is working on a humanoid robot as “Tesla is arguably the world’s biggest robotics company because our cars are like semi-sentient robots on wheels.”</p><p><blockquote>在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>在周四晚些时候的人工智能日，自称 Technoking 的马斯克表示，该公司正在研发人形机器人，因为 “特斯拉可以说是世界上最大的机器人公司，因为我们的汽车就像带轮子的半感知机器人”。</blockquote></p><p> After a white-suited human did a brief dance for the believers in the audience and on a livestream, Musk came on the stage and showed only computer-generated images of a 5’8″ humanoid robot thathe claimed Tesla will produce a prototype of sometime next year. He inferred it could be used for manufacturing or boring repetitive tasks, like grocery shopping and will have a full self-driving computer.</p><p><blockquote>在一名身穿白色西装的男子为观众和直播中的信徒们跳了一段简短的舞蹈后，马斯克走上舞台，只展示了一个 5 英尺 8 英寸的人形机器人的计算机生成的图像，特斯拉声称该机器人将在明年某个时候生产原型。他推断它可以用于制造或无聊的重复性任务，如杂货店购物，并将拥有一台全自动驾驶计算机。</blockquote></p><p> As always with Musk and Tesla, the timeline is highly doubtful to anyone with basic knowledge of the technology in question. Fortunately, the antics did not fool everyone on Wall Street, some of whom may be getting tired of his shenanigans.</p><p><blockquote>与马斯克和特斯拉一样，对于任何对相关技术有基本知识的人来说，时间表都是高度可疑的。幸运的是，这些滑稽动作并没有愚弄华尔街的每个人，他们中的一些人可能已经厌倦了他的恶作剧。</blockquote></p><p> “Unfortunately, as we have seen with robotaxis and other future sci-fi projects for Musk, we view this&nbsp;Tesla&nbsp;Bot as an absolute head scratcher that will further agitate investors at a time the Street is showing growing concern around rising EV competition and safety issues for&nbsp;Tesla,” said Dan Ives, a Wedbush Securities analyst, in a note to clients early Friday.</p><p><blockquote>“韦德布什证券公司（Wedbush Securities）分析师丹-艾夫斯（Dan Ives）在周五早些时候给客户的一份报告中说：”不幸的是，正如我们在机器人出租车和马斯克未来的其他科幻项目中看到的那样，我们认为这个特斯拉机器人绝对是一个令人头疼的问题，在华尔街对特斯拉电动汽车竞争和安全问题日益担忧之际，它将进一步激怒投资者。</blockquote></p><p> The safety issues Ives mentions are what investors should be attuned to right now, because it appears the government is finally stepping up and taking note of a problem this column has long pointed out: Musk repeatedly oversells the current and near-term potential for his automotive autonomy advanced technology.</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯提到的安全问题是投资者现在应该关注的问题，因为政府似乎终于站出来，并注意到了本专栏长期以来指出的一个问题：马斯克一再夸大当前和近期的潜力他的汽车自主先进技术。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> a day before Thursday’s “AI Day” spectacle,two U.S. senators asked the Federal Trade Commission to investigate both Tesla’s and Musk’s “repeated overstatements of their vehicles’ capabilities”in regards to the marketing of Tesla’s “Full Self Driving” product. Tesla charges thousands of dollars at purchase (or as little as $100 a month) for software that is nowhere near full self-driving, a practice that has already led toa recent review by California Department of Motor Vehiclesanda German ruling that Tesla could not market the product as such.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>在周四 “人工智能日 ”盛事的前一天，两位美国参议员要求联邦贸易委员会调查特斯拉和马斯克在特斯拉 “全自动驾驶 ”产品营销方面 “一再夸大其汽车的性能”。特斯拉对远未完全自动驾驶的软件收取数千美元的购买费用（或每月低至 100 美元），这种做法已经导致加州机动车辆管理局最近进行审查。德国裁定特斯拉不能这样销售该产品。</blockquote></p><p> “Language matters,” said Selika Talbott, a professorial lecturer in the department of public administration and policy at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFG\">American</a> University in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">Washington</a> DC. “The use of this terminology is false and misleading and unsafe for the general public. The notions of assisted driving and autonomous vehicles and their differences are not fully understood by the general public.”</p><p><blockquote>“语言很重要，”大学公共行政与政策系教授讲师塞利卡-塔尔博特（Selika Talbott）说。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFG\">美国的</a>大学<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">华盛顿</a>直流电。“使用这些术语是错误的、误导性的，对公众来说也是不安全的。公众并不完全理解辅助驾驶和自动驾驶汽车的概念及其区别。”</blockquote></p><p> “Tesla has highly assisted technology in their vehicle, but at no point should anyone behind the wheel think that vehicle can drive itself, because it can’t,” Talbott said.</p><p><blockquote>“塔尔博特说：”特斯拉在他们的车辆上采用了高度辅助技术，但任何时候驾驶员都不应该认为车辆可以自动驾驶，因为它不能。</blockquote></p><p> The week began with news of a federal investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot system after cars using the feature crashed into stopped emergency vehicles.The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NHLD\">National</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HIHO\">Highway</a> Traffic Safety Administration is looking into a series of crashesby Tesla cars that had the advanced driver-assistance system enabled. NHTSA said that itopened an inquiry into 11 Tesla crashesthat involved emergency vehicles, while still investigating a series of collisions involving cars enabled with <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AEIS\">Advanced</a> Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) and tractor-trailers.</p><p><blockquote>本周伊始，有消息称联邦政府将对特斯拉的自动驾驶系统进行调查，此前使用该功能的汽车撞上了停下的紧急车辆。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NHLD\">国家的</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HIHO\">公路</a>交通安全管理局正在调查一系列启用了高级驾驶员辅助系统的crashesby特斯拉汽车。美国国家公路交通安全管理局 (NHTSA) 表示，已对特斯拉 11 起涉及紧急车辆的事故展开调查，同时仍在调查一系列涉及配备紧急车辆的碰撞事故。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AEIS\">先进的</a>驾驶员辅助系统（ADAS）和牵引车。</blockquote></p><p> The latest outcry on Capitol <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HIL\">Hill</a> follows a stream of news reports and/or social media posts and YouTube videos of drivers engaging in extremely risky behavior while testing the so-called self-driving features of their Tesla. In May, Steven Michael Hendrickson,a 35-year-old father of two in Fontana, Calif., died when his Tesla hit an overturned semitruck. Earlier he had posted videos of driving without his hands on the wheel of his car on the freeway, but the NHTSA was still investigating the role of Autopilot in the crash.</p><p><blockquote>国会大厦的最新抗议<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HIL\">山丘</a>接下来是一系列新闻报道和/或社交媒体帖子以及YouTube视频，内容是司机在测试特斯拉所谓的自动驾驶功能时从事极其危险的行为。今年 5 月，加利福尼亚州丰塔纳市 35 岁的 Steven Michael Hendrickson 是两个孩子的父亲，他的特斯拉撞上了一辆翻倒的半挂卡车，不幸身亡。早些时候，他发布了在高速公路上没有手放在汽车方向盘上驾驶的视频，但NHTSA仍在调查自动驾驶仪在事故中的作用。</blockquote></p><p> “The vehicles that Tesla is producing are driver-assisted systems,” said Bryan Reimer, a research scientist at the MIT Center for Transportation and Logistics. “They are assisting the driver, and the driver needs to maintain vigilance.”</p><p><blockquote>“麻省理工学院运输与物流中心的研究科学家布莱恩-雷默（Bryan Reimer）说：”特斯拉正在生产的车辆是驾驶员辅助系统。“他们正在协助司机，司机需要保持警惕”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> It is important to note the difference between Tesla’s dual products with misleading names. “Autopilot” is an ADAS system, a highly advanced version of cruise control meant for highway driving that enables “your car to steer, accelerate and brake automatically within its lane under your active supervision, assisting with the most burdensome parts of driving,” according to Tesla’s website. Tesla also offers the “FSD” package, now available by a subscription of $99 to $199 a month, which it describes as “access to a suite of more advanced driver assistance features, designed to provide more active guidance and assisted driving under your active supervision.”</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，特斯拉的双产品名称具有误导性。据特斯拉网站介绍，“Autopilot ”是一种 ADAS 系统，是一种专为高速公路驾驶设计的高级巡航控制系统，可 “让您的汽车在您的主动监督下在车道内自动转向、加速和制动，协助完成驾驶中最繁重的部分”。特斯拉还提供 “FSD ”套餐，目前订阅价格为每月 99 美元至 199 美元，该套餐将其描述为 “使用一套更先进的驾驶辅助功能，旨在在您的主动监督下提供更主动的指导和辅助驾驶”。</blockquote></p><p> If only Musk described these systems in a similar manner to the official website. In analyst conference calls and in Tesla’s multi-hour long presentations to its fan base, Musk has been proclaiming that with this software, full autonomy is around the corner.</p><p><blockquote>要是马斯克以与官网类似的方式描述这些系统就好了。在评级分析师大会和特斯拉长达数小时的粉丝演讲中，马斯克一直宣称，有了这款软件，完全自主指日可待。</blockquote></p><p> “We&nbsp;basically&nbsp;have&nbsp;to&nbsp;solve&nbsp;real-world vision AI and we are,” he said in an earnings call in April. “And the key to solving this is also having some massive data set. So just having well over <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> million cars on the road that are collecting data… But I am highly confident that we&nbsp;will&nbsp;get&nbsp;this&nbsp;done.”</p><p><blockquote>“他在 4 月份的财报看涨期权上说：”我们基本上必须解决现实世界的视觉人工智能问题，而且我们做到了。“解决这个问题的关键还在于拥有大量的数据集。因此，只要拥有大量的数据集，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>路上有上百万辆车在收集数据……但我非常有信心我们会完成这项工作。”</blockquote></p><p> But for all of Musk’s bluster and huge fan base, investors are starting to note that the company’s tactics involving full self-driving technology are dangerous, as opposed to the other companies that are testing autonomous vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>不过，尽管马斯克声势浩大，拥有庞大的粉丝群，但投资者开始注意到，与其他测试自动驾驶汽车的公司不同，该公司涉及全自动驾驶技术的策略是危险的。</blockquote></p><p> For example, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a> Inc.’sGOOGGOOGLWaymo, the company with the most hours of autonomous vehicle driving, is currently operating a small scale robotaxi service in parts of Arizona around Phoenix that are not densely populated, without human drivers. It is the only one of its kind in the U.S. In California, Waymo has permits from the DMV to conduct AV testing with a human driver behind the wheel.</p><p><blockquote>例如，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a>公司的sGOOGGOOGLWaymo是自动驾驶汽车时间最长的公司，目前正在亚利桑那州凤凰城周围人口密集的地区运营小规模机器人出租车服务，没有人类司机。这是美国唯一一家此类公司。在加利福尼亚州，Waymo 获得了 DMV 的许可，可以在驾驶员驾驶的情况下进行 AV 测试。</blockquote></p><p> “Waymo cannot just start selling their AVs to anyone, and they can’t just drive them on the roadway, our regulatory system does not allow for that,” Talbott of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMSWA\">American</a> University said. “You can test them but no publicly available self-driving car is on the market for purchase because it doesn’t exist.”</p><p><blockquote>“Waymo 不能就这么开始向任何人出售他们的 AV，他们也不能就这么在路上行驶，我们的监管体系不允许这样做。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMSWA\">美国的</a>大学说。“你可以测试它们，但市场上没有公开的自动驾驶汽车可供购买，因为它并不存在”。</blockquote></p><p> With FSD testing being done in the real world with untrained drivers, Tesla is conducting the equivalent of clinical trials of a new drug without any professional hourly or daily monitoring of the patient.</p><p><blockquote>随着 FSD 测试在现实世界中由未经培训的司机进行，特斯拉正在进行相当于一种新药的临床试验，而没有对患者进行任何专业的每小时或每天监测。</blockquote></p><p> “They are calling it beta, it is a beta system, they are exposing people to substantive risk,” Reimer said.</p><p><blockquote>“雷默说：”他们称之为测试版，这是一个测试版系统，他们让人们面临实质性风险。</blockquote></p><p> Musk’s latest bot is yet another distraction, much like the flame thrower in 2018 sold by his Boring Company, his unwanted assistance to try and help the boys stuck in a cave in Thailand, and other projects. Investors should not let these distractions get in the way of the real issues that Musk seems to be refusing to acknowledge as he continues to oversell his company’s technological abilities.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克的最新机器人是另一个令人分心的事情，就像他的无聊公司在 2018 年出售的火焰喷射器、他试图帮助被困在泰国山洞里的男孩的意外帮助以及其他项目一样。投资者不应让这些干扰妨碍马斯克似乎拒绝承认的真正问题，因为他继续过度推销公司的技术能力。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ignore Elon Musk’s dancing distraction and face the dangers ahead for Tesla<blockquote>忽略埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）跳舞的干扰，直面特斯拉未来的危险</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIgnore Elon Musk’s dancing distraction and face the dangers ahead for Tesla<blockquote>忽略埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）跳舞的干扰，直面特斯拉未来的危险</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-21 09:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>Investigations into automated-driving systems and the statements made about it by the electric-car company and its chief executive deserve more attention than their latest fanciful technology aspirations and timelines.</b>  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">Investors</a> should ignore Elon Musk’s latest dance and focus instead on the growing issues Tesla is facing because of its chief executive’s exaggerated claims about his company’s technological capabilities.</p><p><blockquote><b>对自动驾驶系统的调查以及这家电动汽车公司及其首席执行官就此发表的声明比他们最新的异想天开的技术抱负和时间表更值得关注。</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">投资者</a>应该忽略埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）的最新舞蹈，转而关注特斯拉因首席执行官夸大公司技术能力而面临的日益严重的问题。</blockquote></p><p> At <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a>’s&nbsp;AI Day late Thursday, self-named Technoking Musk said that the company is working on a humanoid robot as “Tesla is arguably the world’s biggest robotics company because our cars are like semi-sentient robots on wheels.”</p><p><blockquote>在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>在周四晚些时候的人工智能日，自称 Technoking 的马斯克表示，该公司正在研发人形机器人，因为 “特斯拉可以说是世界上最大的机器人公司，因为我们的汽车就像带轮子的半感知机器人”。</blockquote></p><p> After a white-suited human did a brief dance for the believers in the audience and on a livestream, Musk came on the stage and showed only computer-generated images of a 5’8″ humanoid robot thathe claimed Tesla will produce a prototype of sometime next year. He inferred it could be used for manufacturing or boring repetitive tasks, like grocery shopping and will have a full self-driving computer.</p><p><blockquote>在一名身穿白色西装的男子为观众和直播中的信徒们跳了一段简短的舞蹈后，马斯克走上舞台，只展示了一个 5 英尺 8 英寸的人形机器人的计算机生成的图像，特斯拉声称该机器人将在明年某个时候生产原型。他推断它可以用于制造或无聊的重复性任务，如杂货店购物，并将拥有一台全自动驾驶计算机。</blockquote></p><p> As always with Musk and Tesla, the timeline is highly doubtful to anyone with basic knowledge of the technology in question. Fortunately, the antics did not fool everyone on Wall Street, some of whom may be getting tired of his shenanigans.</p><p><blockquote>与马斯克和特斯拉一样，对于任何对相关技术有基本知识的人来说，时间表都是高度可疑的。幸运的是，这些滑稽动作并没有愚弄华尔街的每个人，他们中的一些人可能已经厌倦了他的恶作剧。</blockquote></p><p> “Unfortunately, as we have seen with robotaxis and other future sci-fi projects for Musk, we view this&nbsp;Tesla&nbsp;Bot as an absolute head scratcher that will further agitate investors at a time the Street is showing growing concern around rising EV competition and safety issues for&nbsp;Tesla,” said Dan Ives, a Wedbush Securities analyst, in a note to clients early Friday.</p><p><blockquote>“韦德布什证券公司（Wedbush Securities）分析师丹-艾夫斯（Dan Ives）在周五早些时候给客户的一份报告中说：”不幸的是，正如我们在机器人出租车和马斯克未来的其他科幻项目中看到的那样，我们认为这个特斯拉机器人绝对是一个令人头疼的问题，在华尔街对特斯拉电动汽车竞争和安全问题日益担忧之际，它将进一步激怒投资者。</blockquote></p><p> The safety issues Ives mentions are what investors should be attuned to right now, because it appears the government is finally stepping up and taking note of a problem this column has long pointed out: Musk repeatedly oversells the current and near-term potential for his automotive autonomy advanced technology.</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯提到的安全问题是投资者现在应该关注的问题，因为政府似乎终于站出来，并注意到了本专栏长期以来指出的一个问题：马斯克一再夸大当前和近期的潜力他的汽车自主先进技术。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> a day before Thursday’s “AI Day” spectacle,two U.S. senators asked the Federal Trade Commission to investigate both Tesla’s and Musk’s “repeated overstatements of their vehicles’ capabilities”in regards to the marketing of Tesla’s “Full Self Driving” product. Tesla charges thousands of dollars at purchase (or as little as $100 a month) for software that is nowhere near full self-driving, a practice that has already led toa recent review by California Department of Motor Vehiclesanda German ruling that Tesla could not market the product as such.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>在周四 “人工智能日 ”盛事的前一天，两位美国参议员要求联邦贸易委员会调查特斯拉和马斯克在特斯拉 “全自动驾驶 ”产品营销方面 “一再夸大其汽车的性能”。特斯拉对远未完全自动驾驶的软件收取数千美元的购买费用（或每月低至 100 美元），这种做法已经导致加州机动车辆管理局最近进行审查。德国裁定特斯拉不能这样销售该产品。</blockquote></p><p> “Language matters,” said Selika Talbott, a professorial lecturer in the department of public administration and policy at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFG\">American</a> University in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">Washington</a> DC. “The use of this terminology is false and misleading and unsafe for the general public. The notions of assisted driving and autonomous vehicles and their differences are not fully understood by the general public.”</p><p><blockquote>“语言很重要，”大学公共行政与政策系教授讲师塞利卡-塔尔博特（Selika Talbott）说。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFG\">美国的</a>大学<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">华盛顿</a>直流电。“使用这些术语是错误的、误导性的，对公众来说也是不安全的。公众并不完全理解辅助驾驶和自动驾驶汽车的概念及其区别。”</blockquote></p><p> “Tesla has highly assisted technology in their vehicle, but at no point should anyone behind the wheel think that vehicle can drive itself, because it can’t,” Talbott said.</p><p><blockquote>“塔尔博特说：”特斯拉在他们的车辆上采用了高度辅助技术，但任何时候驾驶员都不应该认为车辆可以自动驾驶，因为它不能。</blockquote></p><p> The week began with news of a federal investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot system after cars using the feature crashed into stopped emergency vehicles.The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NHLD\">National</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HIHO\">Highway</a> Traffic Safety Administration is looking into a series of crashesby Tesla cars that had the advanced driver-assistance system enabled. NHTSA said that itopened an inquiry into 11 Tesla crashesthat involved emergency vehicles, while still investigating a series of collisions involving cars enabled with <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AEIS\">Advanced</a> Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) and tractor-trailers.</p><p><blockquote>本周伊始，有消息称联邦政府将对特斯拉的自动驾驶系统进行调查，此前使用该功能的汽车撞上了停下的紧急车辆。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NHLD\">国家的</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HIHO\">公路</a>交通安全管理局正在调查一系列启用了高级驾驶员辅助系统的crashesby特斯拉汽车。美国国家公路交通安全管理局 (NHTSA) 表示，已对特斯拉 11 起涉及紧急车辆的事故展开调查，同时仍在调查一系列涉及配备紧急车辆的碰撞事故。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AEIS\">先进的</a>驾驶员辅助系统（ADAS）和牵引车。</blockquote></p><p> The latest outcry on Capitol <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HIL\">Hill</a> follows a stream of news reports and/or social media posts and YouTube videos of drivers engaging in extremely risky behavior while testing the so-called self-driving features of their Tesla. In May, Steven Michael Hendrickson,a 35-year-old father of two in Fontana, Calif., died when his Tesla hit an overturned semitruck. Earlier he had posted videos of driving without his hands on the wheel of his car on the freeway, but the NHTSA was still investigating the role of Autopilot in the crash.</p><p><blockquote>国会大厦的最新抗议<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HIL\">山丘</a>接下来是一系列新闻报道和/或社交媒体帖子以及YouTube视频，内容是司机在测试特斯拉所谓的自动驾驶功能时从事极其危险的行为。今年 5 月，加利福尼亚州丰塔纳市 35 岁的 Steven Michael Hendrickson 是两个孩子的父亲，他的特斯拉撞上了一辆翻倒的半挂卡车，不幸身亡。早些时候，他发布了在高速公路上没有手放在汽车方向盘上驾驶的视频，但NHTSA仍在调查自动驾驶仪在事故中的作用。</blockquote></p><p> “The vehicles that Tesla is producing are driver-assisted systems,” said Bryan Reimer, a research scientist at the MIT Center for Transportation and Logistics. “They are assisting the driver, and the driver needs to maintain vigilance.”</p><p><blockquote>“麻省理工学院运输与物流中心的研究科学家布莱恩-雷默（Bryan Reimer）说：”特斯拉正在生产的车辆是驾驶员辅助系统。“他们正在协助司机，司机需要保持警惕”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> It is important to note the difference between Tesla’s dual products with misleading names. “Autopilot” is an ADAS system, a highly advanced version of cruise control meant for highway driving that enables “your car to steer, accelerate and brake automatically within its lane under your active supervision, assisting with the most burdensome parts of driving,” according to Tesla’s website. Tesla also offers the “FSD” package, now available by a subscription of $99 to $199 a month, which it describes as “access to a suite of more advanced driver assistance features, designed to provide more active guidance and assisted driving under your active supervision.”</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，特斯拉的双产品名称具有误导性。据特斯拉网站介绍，“Autopilot ”是一种 ADAS 系统，是一种专为高速公路驾驶设计的高级巡航控制系统，可 “让您的汽车在您的主动监督下在车道内自动转向、加速和制动，协助完成驾驶中最繁重的部分”。特斯拉还提供 “FSD ”套餐，目前订阅价格为每月 99 美元至 199 美元，该套餐将其描述为 “使用一套更先进的驾驶辅助功能，旨在在您的主动监督下提供更主动的指导和辅助驾驶”。</blockquote></p><p> If only Musk described these systems in a similar manner to the official website. In analyst conference calls and in Tesla’s multi-hour long presentations to its fan base, Musk has been proclaiming that with this software, full autonomy is around the corner.</p><p><blockquote>要是马斯克以与官网类似的方式描述这些系统就好了。在评级分析师大会和特斯拉长达数小时的粉丝演讲中，马斯克一直宣称，有了这款软件，完全自主指日可待。</blockquote></p><p> “We&nbsp;basically&nbsp;have&nbsp;to&nbsp;solve&nbsp;real-world vision AI and we are,” he said in an earnings call in April. “And the key to solving this is also having some massive data set. So just having well over <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> million cars on the road that are collecting data… But I am highly confident that we&nbsp;will&nbsp;get&nbsp;this&nbsp;done.”</p><p><blockquote>“他在 4 月份的财报看涨期权上说：”我们基本上必须解决现实世界的视觉人工智能问题，而且我们做到了。“解决这个问题的关键还在于拥有大量的数据集。因此，只要拥有大量的数据集，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>路上有上百万辆车在收集数据……但我非常有信心我们会完成这项工作。”</blockquote></p><p> But for all of Musk’s bluster and huge fan base, investors are starting to note that the company’s tactics involving full self-driving technology are dangerous, as opposed to the other companies that are testing autonomous vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>不过，尽管马斯克声势浩大，拥有庞大的粉丝群，但投资者开始注意到，与其他测试自动驾驶汽车的公司不同，该公司涉及全自动驾驶技术的策略是危险的。</blockquote></p><p> For example, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a> Inc.’sGOOGGOOGLWaymo, the company with the most hours of autonomous vehicle driving, is currently operating a small scale robotaxi service in parts of Arizona around Phoenix that are not densely populated, without human drivers. It is the only one of its kind in the U.S. In California, Waymo has permits from the DMV to conduct AV testing with a human driver behind the wheel.</p><p><blockquote>例如，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a>公司的sGOOGGOOGLWaymo是自动驾驶汽车时间最长的公司，目前正在亚利桑那州凤凰城周围人口密集的地区运营小规模机器人出租车服务，没有人类司机。这是美国唯一一家此类公司。在加利福尼亚州，Waymo 获得了 DMV 的许可，可以在驾驶员驾驶的情况下进行 AV 测试。</blockquote></p><p> “Waymo cannot just start selling their AVs to anyone, and they can’t just drive them on the roadway, our regulatory system does not allow for that,” Talbott of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMSWA\">American</a> University said. “You can test them but no publicly available self-driving car is on the market for purchase because it doesn’t exist.”</p><p><blockquote>“Waymo 不能就这么开始向任何人出售他们的 AV，他们也不能就这么在路上行驶，我们的监管体系不允许这样做。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMSWA\">美国的</a>大学说。“你可以测试它们，但市场上没有公开的自动驾驶汽车可供购买，因为它并不存在”。</blockquote></p><p> With FSD testing being done in the real world with untrained drivers, Tesla is conducting the equivalent of clinical trials of a new drug without any professional hourly or daily monitoring of the patient.</p><p><blockquote>随着 FSD 测试在现实世界中由未经培训的司机进行，特斯拉正在进行相当于一种新药的临床试验，而没有对患者进行任何专业的每小时或每天监测。</blockquote></p><p> “They are calling it beta, it is a beta system, they are exposing people to substantive risk,” Reimer said.</p><p><blockquote>“雷默说：”他们称之为测试版，这是一个测试版系统，他们让人们面临实质性风险。</blockquote></p><p> Musk’s latest bot is yet another distraction, much like the flame thrower in 2018 sold by his Boring Company, his unwanted assistance to try and help the boys stuck in a cave in Thailand, and other projects. Investors should not let these distractions get in the way of the real issues that Musk seems to be refusing to acknowledge as he continues to oversell his company’s technological abilities.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克的最新机器人是另一个令人分心的事情，就像他的无聊公司在 2018 年出售的火焰喷射器、他试图帮助被困在泰国山洞里的男孩的意外帮助以及其他项目一样。投资者不应让这些干扰妨碍马斯克似乎拒绝承认的真正问题，因为他继续过度推销公司的技术能力。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ignore-elon-musks-dancing-distraction-and-face-the-dangers-ahead-for-tesla-11629488276?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ignore-elon-musks-dancing-distraction-and-face-the-dangers-ahead-for-tesla-11629488276?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1107075259","content_text":"Investigations into automated-driving systems and the statements made about it by the electric-car company and its chief executive deserve more attention than their latest fanciful technology aspirations and timelines.\n\nInvestors should ignore Elon Musk’s latest dance and focus instead on the growing issues Tesla is facing because of its chief executive’s exaggerated claims about his company’s technological capabilities.\nAt Tesla Motors’s AI Day late Thursday, self-named Technoking Musk said that the company is working on a humanoid robot as “Tesla is arguably the world’s biggest robotics company because our cars are like semi-sentient robots on wheels.”\nAfter a white-suited human did a brief dance for the believers in the audience and on a livestream, Musk came on the stage and showed only computer-generated images of a 5’8″ humanoid robot thathe claimed Tesla will produce a prototype of sometime next year. He inferred it could be used for manufacturing or boring repetitive tasks, like grocery shopping and will have a full self-driving computer.\nAs always with Musk and Tesla, the timeline is highly doubtful to anyone with basic knowledge of the technology in question. Fortunately, the antics did not fool everyone on Wall Street, some of whom may be getting tired of his shenanigans.\n“Unfortunately, as we have seen with robotaxis and other future sci-fi projects for Musk, we view this Tesla Bot as an absolute head scratcher that will further agitate investors at a time the Street is showing growing concern around rising EV competition and safety issues for Tesla,” said Dan Ives, a Wedbush Securities analyst, in a note to clients early Friday.\nThe safety issues Ives mentions are what investors should be attuned to right now, because it appears the government is finally stepping up and taking note of a problem this column has long pointed out: Musk repeatedly oversells the current and near-term potential for his automotive autonomy advanced technology.\nJust a day before Thursday’s “AI Day” spectacle,two U.S. senators asked the Federal Trade Commission to investigate both Tesla’s and Musk’s “repeated overstatements of their vehicles’ capabilities”in regards to the marketing of Tesla’s “Full Self Driving” product. Tesla charges thousands of dollars at purchase (or as little as $100 a month) for software that is nowhere near full self-driving, a practice that has already led toa recent review by California Department of Motor Vehiclesanda German ruling that Tesla could not market the product as such.\n“Language matters,” said Selika Talbott, a professorial lecturer in the department of public administration and policy at American University in Washington DC. “The use of this terminology is false and misleading and unsafe for the general public. The notions of assisted driving and autonomous vehicles and their differences are not fully understood by the general public.”\n“Tesla has highly assisted technology in their vehicle, but at no point should anyone behind the wheel think that vehicle can drive itself, because it can’t,” Talbott said.\nThe week began with news of a federal investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot system after cars using the feature crashed into stopped emergency vehicles.The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration is looking into a series of crashesby Tesla cars that had the advanced driver-assistance system enabled. NHTSA said that itopened an inquiry into 11 Tesla crashesthat involved emergency vehicles, while still investigating a series of collisions involving cars enabled with Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) and tractor-trailers.\nThe latest outcry on Capitol Hill follows a stream of news reports and/or social media posts and YouTube videos of drivers engaging in extremely risky behavior while testing the so-called self-driving features of their Tesla. In May, Steven Michael Hendrickson,a 35-year-old father of two in Fontana, Calif., died when his Tesla hit an overturned semitruck. Earlier he had posted videos of driving without his hands on the wheel of his car on the freeway, but the NHTSA was still investigating the role of Autopilot in the crash.\n“The vehicles that Tesla is producing are driver-assisted systems,” said Bryan Reimer, a research scientist at the MIT Center for Transportation and Logistics. “They are assisting the driver, and the driver needs to maintain vigilance.”\nIt is important to note the difference between Tesla’s dual products with misleading names. “Autopilot” is an ADAS system, a highly advanced version of cruise control meant for highway driving that enables “your car to steer, accelerate and brake automatically within its lane under your active supervision, assisting with the most burdensome parts of driving,” according to Tesla’s website. Tesla also offers the “FSD” package, now available by a subscription of $99 to $199 a month, which it describes as “access to a suite of more advanced driver assistance features, designed to provide more active guidance and assisted driving under your active supervision.”\nIf only Musk described these systems in a similar manner to the official website. In analyst conference calls and in Tesla’s multi-hour long presentations to its fan base, Musk has been proclaiming that with this software, full autonomy is around the corner.\n“We basically have to solve real-world vision AI and we are,” he said in an earnings call in April. “And the key to solving this is also having some massive data set. So just having well over one million cars on the road that are collecting data… But I am highly confident that we will get this done.”\nBut for all of Musk’s bluster and huge fan base, investors are starting to note that the company’s tactics involving full self-driving technology are dangerous, as opposed to the other companies that are testing autonomous vehicles.\nFor example, Alphabet Inc.’sGOOGGOOGLWaymo, the company with the most hours of autonomous vehicle driving, is currently operating a small scale robotaxi service in parts of Arizona around Phoenix that are not densely populated, without human drivers. It is the only one of its kind in the U.S. In California, Waymo has permits from the DMV to conduct AV testing with a human driver behind the wheel.\n“Waymo cannot just start selling their AVs to anyone, and they can’t just drive them on the roadway, our regulatory system does not allow for that,” Talbott of American University said. “You can test them but no publicly available self-driving car is on the market for purchase because it doesn’t exist.”\nWith FSD testing being done in the real world with untrained drivers, Tesla is conducting the equivalent of clinical trials of a new drug without any professional hourly or daily monitoring of the patient.\n“They are calling it beta, it is a beta system, they are exposing people to substantive risk,” Reimer said.\nMusk’s latest bot is yet another distraction, much like the flame thrower in 2018 sold by his Boring Company, his unwanted assistance to try and help the boys stuck in a cave in Thailand, and other projects. Investors should not let these distractions get in the way of the real issues that Musk seems to be refusing to acknowledge as he continues to oversell his company’s technological abilities.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":998,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":195407619,"gmtCreate":1621305400031,"gmtModify":1634192591969,"author":{"id":"3576627310629871","authorId":"3576627310629871","name":"MrHappy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db25aeb48bc88043744fb93a4c4c3be2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576627310629871","idStr":"3576627310629871"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Still buy!","listText":"Still buy!","text":"Still buy!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/195407619","repostId":"1172555671","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1172555671","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621304134,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1172555671?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-18 10:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Elon Musk On Tesla Giga Berlin Delay Says 'Less Bureaucracy, That Would Be Better'<blockquote>埃隆·马斯克就特斯拉 Giga Berlin 延期表示“少一些官僚主义，那会更好”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172555671","media":"benzinga","summary":"Tesla Inc. CEO Elon Musk has blamed German bureaucracy for the delay in starting production at the B","content":"<p><div> Tesla Inc. CEO Elon Musk has blamed German bureaucracy for the delay in starting production at the Berlin Gigafactory, Reutersreported.What Happened:“I think there could be less bureaucracy, that ...</p><p><blockquote><div>据路透社报道，特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克将柏林超级工厂推迟投产归咎于德国官僚机构。事情经过：“我认为官僚主义可以减少，那个……”</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/05/21167609/elon-musk-on-tesla-giga-berlin-delay-says-less-bureaucracy-that-would-be-better\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/05/21167609/elon-musk-on-tesla-giga-berlin-delay-says-less-bureaucracy-that-would-be-better\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Elon Musk On Tesla Giga Berlin Delay Says 'Less Bureaucracy, That Would Be Better'<blockquote>埃隆·马斯克就特斯拉 Giga Berlin 延期表示“少一些官僚主义，那会更好”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nElon Musk On Tesla Giga Berlin Delay Says 'Less Bureaucracy, That Would Be Better'<blockquote>埃隆·马斯克就特斯拉 Giga Berlin 延期表示“少一些官僚主义，那会更好”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">benzinga</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-18 10:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Tesla Inc. CEO Elon Musk has blamed German bureaucracy for the delay in starting production at the Berlin Gigafactory, Reutersreported.What Happened:“I think there could be less bureaucracy, that ...</p><p><blockquote><div>据路透社报道，特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克将柏林超级工厂推迟投产归咎于德国官僚机构。事情经过：“我认为官僚主义可以减少，那个……”</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/05/21167609/elon-musk-on-tesla-giga-berlin-delay-says-less-bureaucracy-that-would-be-better\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/05/21167609/elon-musk-on-tesla-giga-berlin-delay-says-less-bureaucracy-that-would-be-better\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/05/21167609/elon-musk-on-tesla-giga-berlin-delay-says-less-bureaucracy-that-would-be-better\">benzinga</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/05/21167609/elon-musk-on-tesla-giga-berlin-delay-says-less-bureaucracy-that-would-be-better","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172555671","content_text":"Tesla Inc. CEO Elon Musk has blamed German bureaucracy for the delay in starting production at the Berlin Gigafactory, Reutersreported.What Happened:“I think there could be less bureaucracy, that would be better,” Musk was quoted by Reuters as saying during a visit on Monday to the factory construction site in the German state of Brandenburg.Musk reportedly added that while it was unclear when production would start at the plant, he expects production to commence by the end of 2021.Brandenburg's Economy Minister Joerg Steinbach said no meetings were planned with Musk as the Tesla CEO’s visit to the state was “technical in character,” as per the report.Why It Matters: Tesla has previously criticized the lengthy regulatory processes in Germany andcomplainedthat German bureaucracy may delay the construction of Gigafactory Berlin.The electric vehicle maker had earlier planned to commence operations at the Berlin factory by July 1 this year. In its most recent quarterly earnings report, the Palo Alto-based company said the buildout of the factory is continuing to move forward, with production and deliveries remaining on track for late 2021.It wasreportedearlier this month that the start of production at the Berlin factory has been delayed until at least January of next year due to issues over battery pack production and changes to the application submitted to local authorities regarding the plant.Gigafactory Berlin is expected to first produce the Tesla Model Y. This factory, which will be thefirst to useTesla’s self-developed new 4680 battery cells, will serve most of Europe and may also export vehicles to other parts of the globe.Price Action:Tesla shares closed almost 2.2% lower in Monday’s regular trading session at $576.83 and further declined 0.8% in the after-hours session to $571.94.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":919,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":815960895,"gmtCreate":1630636021817,"gmtModify":1631891627274,"author":{"id":"3576627310629871","authorId":"3576627310629871","name":"MrHappy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db25aeb48bc88043744fb93a4c4c3be2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576627310629871","idStr":"3576627310629871"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Bad news for Singapore","listText":"Bad news for Singapore","text":"Bad news for Singapore","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/815960895","repostId":"1165273257","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":869,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112257904,"gmtCreate":1622877692808,"gmtModify":1634097108252,"author":{"id":"3576627310629871","authorId":"3576627310629871","name":"MrHappy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db25aeb48bc88043744fb93a4c4c3be2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576627310629871","idStr":"3576627310629871"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"$1000!","listText":"$1000!","text":"$1000!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/112257904","repostId":"1148130971","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148130971","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622866524,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1148130971?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-05 12:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股票能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是一个“何时”而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148130971","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fas","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.</li>  <li>The company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.</li>  <li>We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b31b2f189fa181e941126674e0b4c0b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>蔚来汽车的股价在过去一年中飙升了 816% 以上，在 3 月初成长型股票抛售之前，于 2 月初达到近 62 美元的峰值。</li><li>公司的创新方法和海外扩张战略，加上全球电气化和自动化市场情绪不断增长，预计将提升公司估值。</li><li>我们相信，随着自动驾驶成为现实，全球电动汽车销量持续增长，蔚来汽车的股价到 2025 年将飙升至 160 美元以上。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Drew Angerer/Getty Images 新闻来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Despite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a&nbsp;price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).</p><p><blockquote>尽管蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：NIO）是一个中国本土电动汽车（“EV”）品牌，最近才开始向欧洲进行海外扩张，但近年来，它已经在电动汽车领域的狂热投资者中获得了极大的国际关注。自蔚来在 2018 年年中首次交付以来，只有短短三年时间，但许多人已经在猜测其股价能否达到与行业领导者特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）类似的高度。尽管考虑到特斯拉目前的交易价格超过每股 600 美元，市值超过 6000 亿美元，这有点牵强，但我们确实相信蔚来在 2025 年之前有潜力突破每股 100 美元。就连华尔街分析师也对该公司的未来保持乐观，他们将目标价定为接近 60 美元，根据最新交易股价 42.34 美元（6 月 1 日）计算，该公司的上涨潜力超过 35%。</blockquote></p><p> Founded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来成立于2014年，迄今已在华销售和交付超过10万辆汽车。该公司拥有五款零排放、全电池供电的车型，从跑车到豪华轿车和全尺寸 SUV。除了汽车之外，蔚来还因其在创新技术方面取得的重大进展而闻名，包括最先进的电池解决方案、人工智能和自动驾驶。该公司最近还将其全球扩张计划变为现实，第一家海外蔚来商店将于2021年第三季度在挪威奥斯陆开业。我们认为，股价达到 100 美元不再是 “是否 ”的问题，而是 “何时 ”的问题。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Trailblazer in Innovative Technology</b></p><p><blockquote><b>创新技术的开拓者</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16d9fd877602d5604bc3a69593badfdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\"><span>Source:ir.nio.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ir.nio.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the&nbsp;181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles&nbsp;currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are&nbsp;more than 226 battery swapping stations&nbsp;across China, with more on the way following a recent&nbsp;strategic partnership agreement&nbsp;between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来一直表现出令人不安的创新者的特征。该品牌因其在电池更换技术 “Power Swap ”方面的突破而广为人知，该技术为蔚来车主提供了一种快速便捷的解决方案，以解决电动汽车通常行驶里程有限的问题。类似于加油站，Power Swap是一种电池交换站，可以在三分钟内将没电的电池换成充满电的电池；充满电的电池可使蔚来汽车行驶435英里，是目前市场上电动汽车181英里平均行驶里程的两倍多。蔚来车主可选择订阅「电池即服务」（「BaaS」）套餐，这是一项按月订阅服务，可根据个人需求为蔚来车主提供灵活的电池升级选择。该公司目前提供标准的 75 kWh 电池，充满电后可行驶 310 英里；以及增强型 100 kWh 电池，充满电后可行驶 435 英里；在BaaS下，两者都可供蔚来所有者按月选择。迄今为止，全国已有超过226个换电站，随着蔚来和中石化最近签署战略合作伙伴协议，更多的换电站正在建设中。蔚来的汽车还兼容本地竞争对手小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）在中国 164 个城市的 1140 个汽车充电站，这进一步增强了其为蔚来车主提供的现有充电基础设施网络。</blockquote></p><p> In addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of&nbsp;EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s&nbsp;NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.</p><p><blockquote>除了长期维持蔚来电动汽车所需的发达基础设施网络外，该公司还一直在努力完善其自动驾驶和人工智能技术，以便在更广泛的电动汽车和科技领域保持竞争力。蔚来自2016年以来一直在对其自动驾驶系统进行测试，2018年在北京公共道路上进行了首次测试。该公司对客运未来的承诺也体现在他们开发的 EVE 上，这是该品牌的自动驾驶概念车，由蔚来的 NOMI AI（全球首个车载人工智能）提供豪华、舒适和安全的体验。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> To further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently&nbsp;partnered with Mobileye&nbsp;– an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.</p><p><blockquote>为了进一步推进其在自动驾驶技术方面的进展，蔚来最近与英特尔旗下（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）公司 Mobileye 合作，开发不需要人工交互的驾驶自动化（即 “4 级 ”自动驾驶）并将其商业化。他们的合作有望加速蔚来推出 “自动驾驶即服务 ”（ADaaS）套餐，该套餐是其自动驾驶技术 “蔚来自动驾驶 ”（NAD）的月度订阅。然而，与特斯拉的 “全自动驾驶 ”套件类似，预计将于 2022 年推出的 NAD 技术尚未使蔚来汽车能够在没有人工干预的情况下驾驶，但它确实将蔚来推向了与行业领导者特斯拉不相上下的位置。蔚来用户可以选择订阅ADaaS，每月订阅费为人民币680元。目前上路的蔚来汽车超过 102,000 辆，新的订阅套餐预计将带来 8.4 亿元人民币（1.32 亿美元）的增量年销售额；假设大多数现有蔚来车主都注册了这项服务，那么在这项服务推出时，额外的收入来源估计约为 100 亿元人民币（16 亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> NIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an&nbsp;estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).</p><p><blockquote>蔚来在自动驾驶技术方面的持续发展有望在不久的将来使公司及其股东受益匪浅。到2025年，全球自动驾驶汽车市场将成为增长最快、需求量最大的细分市场之一，估计价值达1.6万亿美元。如果占据该市场 6% 的份额，蔚来现有 670 亿美元的市值将至少增加 1000 亿美元，使其每股价值超过 100 美元。考虑到蔚来是目前极少数在自动驾驶领域取得切实成果的纯电动汽车制造商之一，并且正在积极增长海外销量，我们有信心该公司有能力占领上述6%以上的市场份额，并轻松实现到2025年每股价格超过100美元。结合全球消费者偏好向电气化和自动化的转变，我们预计到 2025 财年汽车销量将达到约 300,000 辆，总收入将达到约 1,400 亿元人民币（220 亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6c800a04e6df92802f6893d214eecdd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"213\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部预测（NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Global Expansion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>全球扩张</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537449f8f7ee9c736b48c1776cbb7259\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\"><span>Source: ir.nio.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ir.nio.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Another catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first&nbsp;overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway&nbsp;in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the&nbsp;ES8, which currently retails at a&nbsp;starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the&nbsp;ET7, to follow in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>推动蔚来股价突破 100 美元的另一个催化剂是他们正在进行的海外扩张努力。蔚来一直透露其全球扩张的意图，尤其是在美国和欧洲，作为其成为行业领导者计划的一部分。蔚来将于9月在挪威奥斯陆开设其首个海外销售和服务中心。2022 年，该品牌在挪威的足迹将进一步扩大，蔚来将在卑尔根、斯塔万格、特隆赫姆和克里斯蒂安桑开设四家门店。除了直销和服务中心外，蔚来还将为欧洲推出完整的充电地图，首先是挪威的四个蔚来换电站，为蔚来的新车主提供该品牌赖以取得成功的便利和续航里程。蔚来的旗舰 SUV ES8 目前的起售价约为 6.7 万美元，将是首款引入欧洲市场的车型，随后该品牌最新的全尺寸轿车 ET7 将于 2022 年推出。</blockquote></p><p> With a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来在中国豪华电动汽车市场拥有良好的销售记录，其规格可与全球知名的特斯拉相媲美，因此没有理由不在海外取得成功。如前所述，蔚来车辆充满电后的续航里程可达 435 英里，对于那些正在寻找可靠伴侣陪伴他们进行日常通勤和长途旅行的欧美潜在车主来说，这是一个理想的选择。蔚来的外观和内饰设计也是现代、豪华的，可与欧洲和北美人口的偏好相媲美。结合多样化的产品线和价格范围，蔚来有能力满足全球范围内对电动汽车日益增长的需求。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO’s Historical Performance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来的历史表现</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Just a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a&nbsp;capital injection of RMB 7 billion&nbsp;(approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its&nbsp;IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.</p><p><blockquote>就在一年多前，尽管汽车销售仍在继续，但由于流动性问题，蔚来的股价还是创下了不到 2 美元的历史新低。2020 年年中，中国合肥市政府出手相救，注资 70 亿元人民币（约合 10 亿美元）。该安排导致“蔚来中国”成立，作为持有蔚来所有核心业务和资产的运营实体；蔚来目前持有蔚来中国 90.36% 的股权，“合肥战略投资者”财团持有剩余 9.64% 的股权。这种合作关系成为公司的生命线；额外的资本为公司的运营和汽车销售带来了显著改善，这反映在公司强劲的财务业绩和 2020 年夏季股价的上升趋势上。到 2020 年第二季度末，蔚来的股价平均反弹了近 20%，总收入环比增长了 171%。该公司股价在 2020 年第三季度上涨了两倍多，平均达到 15.40 美元，并继续攀升至第四季度的平均水平 38.70 美元。截至 2021 年 3 月 31 日的最新季度末，蔚来的平均股价为 50.97 美元，2 月份达到近 62 美元的峰值，是其 2018 年 IPO 价格的 10 倍多。如今，该公司的市值超过 670 亿美元，超过了在纽约证券交易所首次亮相时的 10 亿美元市值。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75a1d7edb18c1762028ba54f617e1982\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\"><span>Source: Author, with data from ir.nio.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自ir.nio.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> NIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the&nbsp;growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the&nbsp;recently renewed manufacturing agreement&nbsp;with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.</p><p><blockquote>自今年早些时候股价在 2 月底成长型股票抛售之前达到顶峰以来，蔚来的基本面也一直在稳步改善。2021年的交付量继续呈指数级加速，第一季度交付量超过20,000辆，占2020年总交付量的近50%。该公司继续展现出光明的前景，4 月份交付了超过 7,100 辆汽车，同比增长超过 125%。蔚来在2021年第一季度还保持了经营活动的正现金流，这得益于更高的交付量和有效的成本管理措施，使其毛利率提高到19.5%，与特斯拉等行业领导者相当第一季度毛利率为21%。如上所述，我们预计到 2025 财年汽车销量将接近 300,000 辆，相当于总收入约为 1,400 亿元人民币（220 亿美元）（每股 18.60 美元）。近期与合营企业「江淮汽车集团」（「江淮汽车集团」）重续的制造协议进一步证实了我们对2025财年的整车销售预测，该协议将目前的年产能由100,000辆增加至240,000辆；目前正在合肥兴建的「NeoPark」预计年产能将增加100万台，进一步支持我们对蔚来继续致力于发展业务的积极前景。考虑到行业同行特斯拉目前的市盈率为 16.43 倍，年收入约为 420 亿美元（第一季度收入年化为 103.89 亿美元），同样的比例应用于蔚来预测的 2025 财年总收入，预计市盈率将达到 8.7 倍，股价将超过 160 美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO vs. LI and XPEV</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来与李和 XPEV</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af8fa939f92be448d1f427a6ac4bfb25\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\"><span>Source: Finviz</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Finviz</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>我们还将蔚来目前的市盈率与国内同行进行了比较，以确定蔚来股价超过 100 美元的时间表。蔚来目前的市盈率约为14.88倍，而国内行业同行理想汽车（纳斯达克股票代码：LI）和XPEV目前的市盈率分别为14.46倍和21.31倍。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Considering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到蔚来的技术、收入、全球足迹和现金流都强于李和XPEV，前者的交易倍数应该远高于后两者。即使蔚来的市盈率达到 18.1 倍（XPEV 的中点），也将推动该公司目前的股价升至 51.50 美元，根据最新交易股价 42.34 美元（6 月 1 日）计算，这意味着 22% 的上涨潜力。根据我们对蔚来 2025 财年收入的预测为 1400 亿元人民币（220 亿美元），即每股 18.60 美元，即使是 18.1 倍的一半也足以让蔚来的股价在 2025 年突破 160 美元；我们相信，蔚来的交易倍数是可以实现的，因为运营现金和届时实现的技术进步将使他们在电动汽车行业走上持续长期增长的轨道，预计这种增长将持续到 2030 年及以后品牌的 4 级自动驾驶技术开发完成并商业化。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Risks and Challenges</b></p><p><blockquote><b>业务风险与挑战</b></blockquote></p><p> As mentioned in one of my&nbsp;previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s&nbsp;denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.</p><p><blockquote>正如我在之前一篇关于蔚来的文章中提到的，《外国公司问责法》（“Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act”）仍然是公司股价面临的最重大威胁之一。目前，中国的公共会计师事务所不符合SEC要求的PCAOB检查规则，2020年12月HFCA法案的颁布要求这些公共会计师事务所在颁布之日起三年内遵守PCAOB检查要求；否则，上述公司审计的所有上市公司都将面临退市风险。蔚来目前正在接受普华永道中天会计师事务所（PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP）的审计，该事务所已被列入 PCAOB 的拒绝准入名单。如果中国当局和 PCAOB 不能尽快就进行检查达成协议，从纽约证券交易所退市的潜在威胁可能会对投资者起到威慑作用，并最终导致蔚来股价长期下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Another imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来业务面临的另一个迫在眉睫的挑战是全球芯片供应持续短缺。随着汽车行业越来越依赖芯片来管理车辆的各项功能，汽车制造商的需求和芯片制造商的供应之间的差距正在扩大。蔚来也不例外，受到持续芯片供应危机的影响——2021年3月，蔚来停止了江淮蔚来制造工厂的生产活动五个工作日，以调整生产水平。然而，该公司继续有效地应对这种情况，正如他们逐月增加的交付数量所证明的那样；在蔚来最新发布的 4 月份交付更新新闻稿中，该公司继续满足市场需求，交付了 7100 多辆汽车，同比增长 125%。</blockquote></p><p> Competition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.</p><p><blockquote>近年来，电动汽车领域的竞争也愈演愈烈。由于对气候变化的担忧日益加剧，加上传统汽油动力汽车和电动汽车之间的价格平价，消费者对电动汽车的态度在过去十年中发生了巨大变化。随着第三方原始设备制造商更容易获得汽车电池解决方案，新兴电动汽车制造商的准入门槛也显着降低；新进入者现在更热衷于参与不断增长的电动汽车行业的盈利机会，因为初始投资变得比 2003 年特斯拉更加合理，当时电动汽车对许多人来说仍然只是一个概念。除了新进入者之外，福特（纽约证券交易所股票代码：F）等传统汽油燃料汽车制造商也开始将全电池驱动汽车纳入其车队，以满足不断变化的消费者需求并在汽车行业保持竞争力。然而，我们相信蔚来拥有在新的竞争格局中长期取得成功所需的品牌、客户体验、生产战略、人才和商业模式（在此进一步分析）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来已经在中国国内市场建立了强大的品牌形象，中国国内市场是目前增长最快的电动汽车市场之一，2020年占全球电动汽车销量的40%以上。结合他们在生产优质电动汽车、建设创新充电基础设施、在自动驾驶技术开发方面取得突破性进展以及执行海外扩张战略方面的成熟能力，蔚来正在有效地缩小他们与特斯拉在全球范围内电动汽车领域的差距。我们相信，由于汽车行业对电气化和自动化的需求不断增长，未来五年将是这家电动汽车和科技公司的转型时代，而蔚来已经证明在这方面表现出色。其持续成就的价值将很快反映在其股价上，对于那些希望从即将到来的绿色转型和自动化时代中获利的人来说，它们是一个值得选择的股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股票能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是一个“何时”而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股票能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是一个“何时”而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-05 12:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.</li>  <li>The company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.</li>  <li>We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b31b2f189fa181e941126674e0b4c0b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>蔚来汽车的股价在过去一年中飙升了 816% 以上，在 3 月初成长型股票抛售之前，于 2 月初达到近 62 美元的峰值。</li><li>公司的创新方法和海外扩张战略，加上全球电气化和自动化市场情绪不断增长，预计将提升公司估值。</li><li>我们相信，随着自动驾驶成为现实，全球电动汽车销量持续增长，蔚来汽车的股价到 2025 年将飙升至 160 美元以上。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Drew Angerer/Getty Images 新闻来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Despite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a&nbsp;price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).</p><p><blockquote>尽管蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：NIO）是一个中国本土电动汽车（“EV”）品牌，最近才开始向欧洲进行海外扩张，但近年来，它已经在电动汽车领域的狂热投资者中获得了极大的国际关注。自蔚来在 2018 年年中首次交付以来，只有短短三年时间，但许多人已经在猜测其股价能否达到与行业领导者特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）类似的高度。尽管考虑到特斯拉目前的交易价格超过每股 600 美元，市值超过 6000 亿美元，这有点牵强，但我们确实相信蔚来在 2025 年之前有潜力突破每股 100 美元。就连华尔街分析师也对该公司的未来保持乐观，他们将目标价定为接近 60 美元，根据最新交易股价 42.34 美元（6 月 1 日）计算，该公司的上涨潜力超过 35%。</blockquote></p><p> Founded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来成立于2014年，迄今已在华销售和交付超过10万辆汽车。该公司拥有五款零排放、全电池供电的车型，从跑车到豪华轿车和全尺寸 SUV。除了汽车之外，蔚来还因其在创新技术方面取得的重大进展而闻名，包括最先进的电池解决方案、人工智能和自动驾驶。该公司最近还将其全球扩张计划变为现实，第一家海外蔚来商店将于2021年第三季度在挪威奥斯陆开业。我们认为，股价达到 100 美元不再是 “是否 ”的问题，而是 “何时 ”的问题。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Trailblazer in Innovative Technology</b></p><p><blockquote><b>创新技术的开拓者</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16d9fd877602d5604bc3a69593badfdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\"><span>Source:ir.nio.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ir.nio.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the&nbsp;181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles&nbsp;currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are&nbsp;more than 226 battery swapping stations&nbsp;across China, with more on the way following a recent&nbsp;strategic partnership agreement&nbsp;between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来一直表现出令人不安的创新者的特征。该品牌因其在电池更换技术 “Power Swap ”方面的突破而广为人知，该技术为蔚来车主提供了一种快速便捷的解决方案，以解决电动汽车通常行驶里程有限的问题。类似于加油站，Power Swap是一种电池交换站，可以在三分钟内将没电的电池换成充满电的电池；充满电的电池可使蔚来汽车行驶435英里，是目前市场上电动汽车181英里平均行驶里程的两倍多。蔚来车主可选择订阅「电池即服务」（「BaaS」）套餐，这是一项按月订阅服务，可根据个人需求为蔚来车主提供灵活的电池升级选择。该公司目前提供标准的 75 kWh 电池，充满电后可行驶 310 英里；以及增强型 100 kWh 电池，充满电后可行驶 435 英里；在BaaS下，两者都可供蔚来所有者按月选择。迄今为止，全国已有超过226个换电站，随着蔚来和中石化最近签署战略合作伙伴协议，更多的换电站正在建设中。蔚来的汽车还兼容本地竞争对手小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）在中国 164 个城市的 1140 个汽车充电站，这进一步增强了其为蔚来车主提供的现有充电基础设施网络。</blockquote></p><p> In addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of&nbsp;EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s&nbsp;NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.</p><p><blockquote>除了长期维持蔚来电动汽车所需的发达基础设施网络外，该公司还一直在努力完善其自动驾驶和人工智能技术，以便在更广泛的电动汽车和科技领域保持竞争力。蔚来自2016年以来一直在对其自动驾驶系统进行测试，2018年在北京公共道路上进行了首次测试。该公司对客运未来的承诺也体现在他们开发的 EVE 上，这是该品牌的自动驾驶概念车，由蔚来的 NOMI AI（全球首个车载人工智能）提供豪华、舒适和安全的体验。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> To further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently&nbsp;partnered with Mobileye&nbsp;– an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.</p><p><blockquote>为了进一步推进其在自动驾驶技术方面的进展，蔚来最近与英特尔旗下（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）公司 Mobileye 合作，开发不需要人工交互的驾驶自动化（即 “4 级 ”自动驾驶）并将其商业化。他们的合作有望加速蔚来推出 “自动驾驶即服务 ”（ADaaS）套餐，该套餐是其自动驾驶技术 “蔚来自动驾驶 ”（NAD）的月度订阅。然而，与特斯拉的 “全自动驾驶 ”套件类似，预计将于 2022 年推出的 NAD 技术尚未使蔚来汽车能够在没有人工干预的情况下驾驶，但它确实将蔚来推向了与行业领导者特斯拉不相上下的位置。蔚来用户可以选择订阅ADaaS，每月订阅费为人民币680元。目前上路的蔚来汽车超过 102,000 辆，新的订阅套餐预计将带来 8.4 亿元人民币（1.32 亿美元）的增量年销售额；假设大多数现有蔚来车主都注册了这项服务，那么在这项服务推出时，额外的收入来源估计约为 100 亿元人民币（16 亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> NIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an&nbsp;estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).</p><p><blockquote>蔚来在自动驾驶技术方面的持续发展有望在不久的将来使公司及其股东受益匪浅。到2025年，全球自动驾驶汽车市场将成为增长最快、需求量最大的细分市场之一，估计价值达1.6万亿美元。如果占据该市场 6% 的份额，蔚来现有 670 亿美元的市值将至少增加 1000 亿美元，使其每股价值超过 100 美元。考虑到蔚来是目前极少数在自动驾驶领域取得切实成果的纯电动汽车制造商之一，并且正在积极增长海外销量，我们有信心该公司有能力占领上述6%以上的市场份额，并轻松实现到2025年每股价格超过100美元。结合全球消费者偏好向电气化和自动化的转变，我们预计到 2025 财年汽车销量将达到约 300,000 辆，总收入将达到约 1,400 亿元人民币（220 亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6c800a04e6df92802f6893d214eecdd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"213\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部预测（NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Global Expansion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>全球扩张</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537449f8f7ee9c736b48c1776cbb7259\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\"><span>Source: ir.nio.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ir.nio.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Another catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first&nbsp;overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway&nbsp;in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the&nbsp;ES8, which currently retails at a&nbsp;starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the&nbsp;ET7, to follow in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>推动蔚来股价突破 100 美元的另一个催化剂是他们正在进行的海外扩张努力。蔚来一直透露其全球扩张的意图，尤其是在美国和欧洲，作为其成为行业领导者计划的一部分。蔚来将于9月在挪威奥斯陆开设其首个海外销售和服务中心。2022 年，该品牌在挪威的足迹将进一步扩大，蔚来将在卑尔根、斯塔万格、特隆赫姆和克里斯蒂安桑开设四家门店。除了直销和服务中心外，蔚来还将为欧洲推出完整的充电地图，首先是挪威的四个蔚来换电站，为蔚来的新车主提供该品牌赖以取得成功的便利和续航里程。蔚来的旗舰 SUV ES8 目前的起售价约为 6.7 万美元，将是首款引入欧洲市场的车型，随后该品牌最新的全尺寸轿车 ET7 将于 2022 年推出。</blockquote></p><p> With a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来在中国豪华电动汽车市场拥有良好的销售记录，其规格可与全球知名的特斯拉相媲美，因此没有理由不在海外取得成功。如前所述，蔚来车辆充满电后的续航里程可达 435 英里，对于那些正在寻找可靠伴侣陪伴他们进行日常通勤和长途旅行的欧美潜在车主来说，这是一个理想的选择。蔚来的外观和内饰设计也是现代、豪华的，可与欧洲和北美人口的偏好相媲美。结合多样化的产品线和价格范围，蔚来有能力满足全球范围内对电动汽车日益增长的需求。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO’s Historical Performance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来的历史表现</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Just a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a&nbsp;capital injection of RMB 7 billion&nbsp;(approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its&nbsp;IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.</p><p><blockquote>就在一年多前，尽管汽车销售仍在继续，但由于流动性问题，蔚来的股价还是创下了不到 2 美元的历史新低。2020 年年中，中国合肥市政府出手相救，注资 70 亿元人民币（约合 10 亿美元）。该安排导致“蔚来中国”成立，作为持有蔚来所有核心业务和资产的运营实体；蔚来目前持有蔚来中国 90.36% 的股权，“合肥战略投资者”财团持有剩余 9.64% 的股权。这种合作关系成为公司的生命线；额外的资本为公司的运营和汽车销售带来了显著改善，这反映在公司强劲的财务业绩和 2020 年夏季股价的上升趋势上。到 2020 年第二季度末，蔚来的股价平均反弹了近 20%，总收入环比增长了 171%。该公司股价在 2020 年第三季度上涨了两倍多，平均达到 15.40 美元，并继续攀升至第四季度的平均水平 38.70 美元。截至 2021 年 3 月 31 日的最新季度末，蔚来的平均股价为 50.97 美元，2 月份达到近 62 美元的峰值，是其 2018 年 IPO 价格的 10 倍多。如今，该公司的市值超过 670 亿美元，超过了在纽约证券交易所首次亮相时的 10 亿美元市值。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75a1d7edb18c1762028ba54f617e1982\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\"><span>Source: Author, with data from ir.nio.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自ir.nio.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> NIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the&nbsp;growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the&nbsp;recently renewed manufacturing agreement&nbsp;with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.</p><p><blockquote>自今年早些时候股价在 2 月底成长型股票抛售之前达到顶峰以来，蔚来的基本面也一直在稳步改善。2021年的交付量继续呈指数级加速，第一季度交付量超过20,000辆，占2020年总交付量的近50%。该公司继续展现出光明的前景，4 月份交付了超过 7,100 辆汽车，同比增长超过 125%。蔚来在2021年第一季度还保持了经营活动的正现金流，这得益于更高的交付量和有效的成本管理措施，使其毛利率提高到19.5%，与特斯拉等行业领导者相当第一季度毛利率为21%。如上所述，我们预计到 2025 财年汽车销量将接近 300,000 辆，相当于总收入约为 1,400 亿元人民币（220 亿美元）（每股 18.60 美元）。近期与合营企业「江淮汽车集团」（「江淮汽车集团」）重续的制造协议进一步证实了我们对2025财年的整车销售预测，该协议将目前的年产能由100,000辆增加至240,000辆；目前正在合肥兴建的「NeoPark」预计年产能将增加100万台，进一步支持我们对蔚来继续致力于发展业务的积极前景。考虑到行业同行特斯拉目前的市盈率为 16.43 倍，年收入约为 420 亿美元（第一季度收入年化为 103.89 亿美元），同样的比例应用于蔚来预测的 2025 财年总收入，预计市盈率将达到 8.7 倍，股价将超过 160 美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO vs. LI and XPEV</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来与李和 XPEV</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af8fa939f92be448d1f427a6ac4bfb25\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\"><span>Source: Finviz</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Finviz</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>我们还将蔚来目前的市盈率与国内同行进行了比较，以确定蔚来股价超过 100 美元的时间表。蔚来目前的市盈率约为14.88倍，而国内行业同行理想汽车（纳斯达克股票代码：LI）和XPEV目前的市盈率分别为14.46倍和21.31倍。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Considering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到蔚来的技术、收入、全球足迹和现金流都强于李和XPEV，前者的交易倍数应该远高于后两者。即使蔚来的市盈率达到 18.1 倍（XPEV 的中点），也将推动该公司目前的股价升至 51.50 美元，根据最新交易股价 42.34 美元（6 月 1 日）计算，这意味着 22% 的上涨潜力。根据我们对蔚来 2025 财年收入的预测为 1400 亿元人民币（220 亿美元），即每股 18.60 美元，即使是 18.1 倍的一半也足以让蔚来的股价在 2025 年突破 160 美元；我们相信，蔚来的交易倍数是可以实现的，因为运营现金和届时实现的技术进步将使他们在电动汽车行业走上持续长期增长的轨道，预计这种增长将持续到 2030 年及以后品牌的 4 级自动驾驶技术开发完成并商业化。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Risks and Challenges</b></p><p><blockquote><b>业务风险与挑战</b></blockquote></p><p> As mentioned in one of my&nbsp;previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s&nbsp;denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.</p><p><blockquote>正如我在之前一篇关于蔚来的文章中提到的，《外国公司问责法》（“Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act”）仍然是公司股价面临的最重大威胁之一。目前，中国的公共会计师事务所不符合SEC要求的PCAOB检查规则，2020年12月HFCA法案的颁布要求这些公共会计师事务所在颁布之日起三年内遵守PCAOB检查要求；否则，上述公司审计的所有上市公司都将面临退市风险。蔚来目前正在接受普华永道中天会计师事务所（PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP）的审计，该事务所已被列入 PCAOB 的拒绝准入名单。如果中国当局和 PCAOB 不能尽快就进行检查达成协议，从纽约证券交易所退市的潜在威胁可能会对投资者起到威慑作用，并最终导致蔚来股价长期下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Another imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来业务面临的另一个迫在眉睫的挑战是全球芯片供应持续短缺。随着汽车行业越来越依赖芯片来管理车辆的各项功能，汽车制造商的需求和芯片制造商的供应之间的差距正在扩大。蔚来也不例外，受到持续芯片供应危机的影响——2021年3月，蔚来停止了江淮蔚来制造工厂的生产活动五个工作日，以调整生产水平。然而，该公司继续有效地应对这种情况，正如他们逐月增加的交付数量所证明的那样；在蔚来最新发布的 4 月份交付更新新闻稿中，该公司继续满足市场需求，交付了 7100 多辆汽车，同比增长 125%。</blockquote></p><p> Competition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.</p><p><blockquote>近年来，电动汽车领域的竞争也愈演愈烈。由于对气候变化的担忧日益加剧，加上传统汽油动力汽车和电动汽车之间的价格平价，消费者对电动汽车的态度在过去十年中发生了巨大变化。随着第三方原始设备制造商更容易获得汽车电池解决方案，新兴电动汽车制造商的准入门槛也显着降低；新进入者现在更热衷于参与不断增长的电动汽车行业的盈利机会，因为初始投资变得比 2003 年特斯拉更加合理，当时电动汽车对许多人来说仍然只是一个概念。除了新进入者之外，福特（纽约证券交易所股票代码：F）等传统汽油燃料汽车制造商也开始将全电池驱动汽车纳入其车队，以满足不断变化的消费者需求并在汽车行业保持竞争力。然而，我们相信蔚来拥有在新的竞争格局中长期取得成功所需的品牌、客户体验、生产战略、人才和商业模式（在此进一步分析）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来已经在中国国内市场建立了强大的品牌形象，中国国内市场是目前增长最快的电动汽车市场之一，2020年占全球电动汽车销量的40%以上。结合他们在生产优质电动汽车、建设创新充电基础设施、在自动驾驶技术开发方面取得突破性进展以及执行海外扩张战略方面的成熟能力，蔚来正在有效地缩小他们与特斯拉在全球范围内电动汽车领域的差距。我们相信，由于汽车行业对电气化和自动化的需求不断增长，未来五年将是这家电动汽车和科技公司的转型时代，而蔚来已经证明在这方面表现出色。其持续成就的价值将很快反映在其股价上，对于那些希望从即将到来的绿色转型和自动化时代中获利的人来说，它们是一个值得选择的股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432901-nio-stock-reach-100\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432901-nio-stock-reach-100","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148130971","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.\nThe company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.\nWe believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.\n\nPhoto by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nDespite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).\nFounded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.\nA Trailblazer in Innovative Technology\nSource:ir.nio.com\nNIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the 181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are more than 226 battery swapping stations across China, with more on the way following a recent strategic partnership agreement between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.\nIn addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.\nTo further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently partnered with Mobileye – an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.\nNIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).\nSource: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).\nGlobal Expansion\nSource: ir.nio.com\nAnother catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the ES8, which currently retails at a starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the ET7, to follow in 2022.\nWith a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.\nNIO’s Historical Performance\nJust a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a capital injection of RMB 7 billion (approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.\nSource: Author, with data from ir.nio.com\nNIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the recently renewed manufacturing agreement with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.\nNIO vs. LI and XPEV\nSource: Finviz\nWe have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.\nConsidering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.\nBusiness Risks and Challenges\nAs mentioned in one of my previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.\nAnother imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.\nCompetition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.\nConclusion\nNIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":655,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":631255793,"gmtCreate":1644805974355,"gmtModify":1644805974525,"author":{"id":"3576627310629871","authorId":"3576627310629871","name":"MrHappy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db25aeb48bc88043744fb93a4c4c3be2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576627310629871","idStr":"3576627310629871"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LMND\">$Lemonade, Inc.(LMND)$</a>cry la","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LMND\">$Lemonade, Inc.(LMND)$</a>cry la","text":"$Lemonade, Inc.(LMND)$cry la","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61c9501a0476e44d66b51d03cd904410","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/631255793","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":796,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":870373471,"gmtCreate":1636590571972,"gmtModify":1636595481808,"author":{"id":"3576627310629871","authorId":"3576627310629871","name":"MrHappy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db25aeb48bc88043744fb93a4c4c3be2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576627310629871","idStr":"3576627310629871"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>damn","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>damn","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$damn","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8cc6a202b91e679a87a32383234583e","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/870373471","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":502,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":891414133,"gmtCreate":1628410581122,"gmtModify":1631891627343,"author":{"id":"3576627310629871","authorId":"3576627310629871","name":"MrHappy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db25aeb48bc88043744fb93a4c4c3be2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576627310629871","idStr":"3576627310629871"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Yes !","listText":"Yes !","text":"Yes !","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/891414133","repostId":"1159872041","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1159872041","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628385224,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1159872041?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-08 09:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Stock: Headed to $1,200?<blockquote>特斯拉股票：走向 1,200 美元？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159872041","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Tesla deliveries more than doubled year over year in Q2.Rising demand for electric vehicles could benefit Tesla.Investors should exercise caution when it comes to analysts' price targets.It's been a wild year for Teslastock. When the year started, shares initially surged more than 20%. But the stock has now given up all of those gains, with a year-to-date return of negative 1%. This means the stock has significantly underperformed the S&P 500's 18% gain this year.In February,Piper Sandler analys","content":"<p><b>Key Points</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Tesla deliveries more than doubled year over year in Q2.</li>  <li>Rising demand for electric vehicles could benefit Tesla.</li>  <li>Investors should exercise caution when it comes to analysts' price targets.</li> </ul> It's been a wild year for&nbsp;<b>Tesla</b>(NASDAQ:TSLA)stock. When the year started, shares initially surged more than 20%. But the stock has now given up all of those gains, with a year-to-date return of negative 1%. This means the stock has significantly underperformed the&nbsp;<b>S&amp;P 500</b>'s 18% gain this year.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>特斯拉第二季度交付量同比增长一倍多。</li><li>对电动汽车不断增长的需求可能会使特斯拉受益。</li><li>投资者在谈到分析师的目标价时应谨慎。</li></ul>这是疯狂的一年<b>特斯拉</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）股票。今年年初，股价最初飙升超过 20%。但该股现在已经回吐了所有这些涨幅，今年迄今为止的回报率为负 1%。这意味着该股的表现明显逊于<b>标普500</b>今年增长了 18%。</blockquote></p><p> But one analyst thinks the stock could take off.</p><p><blockquote>但一位分析师认为该股可能会上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <b>\"We still really like this stock.\"</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“我们仍然非常喜欢这只股票。”</b></blockquote></p><p> In February,<b>Piper Sandler</b>&nbsp;analyst Alexander Pottermade a bold call, boosting his 12-month price target for thegrowth stockfrom $515 to $1,200. He said Tesla deliveries could increase from 500,000 vehicles in 2020 to nearly 900,000 this year. Of course, this projection was made before global supply shortages worsened. Nevertheless, Tesla is growing extremely rapidly. The company's second-quarter deliveries more than doubled compared to the year-ago quarter, rising to 201,304.</p><p><blockquote>二月份，<b>派珀·桑德勒</b>分析师 Alexander Potter 做出了大胆的看涨期权，将 The Growth 股票的 12 个月目标价从 515 美元上调至 1,200 美元。他表示，特斯拉的交付量可能会从 2020 年的 50 万辆增加到今年的近 90 万辆。当然，这一预测是在全球供应短缺恶化之前做出的。然而，特斯拉发展极其迅速。该公司第二季度的交付量比去年同期增加了一倍多，达到 201,304 辆。</blockquote></p><p> Following Tesla's second-quarter earnings release late last month, the analyst reiterated this target, noting that the company looks poised to benefit from market share gains, the monetization of the company's Autopilot software, and \"underappreciated opportunities\" in Tesla's energy business, which includes revenue from battery energy storage and solar energy generation products.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉上月底发布第二季度财报后，该分析师重申了这一目标，并指出该公司似乎有望从市场份额增长、公司自动驾驶软件的货币化以及特斯拉能源业务中“被低估的机会”中受益。业务，其中包括电池储能和太阳能发电产品的收入。</blockquote></p><p> Further, Potter pointed to Tesla's strong second-quarter operating margin of 11%, which he expects will see incremental improvement from Tesla's recently launched Autopilot subscription.</p><p><blockquote>此外，波特指出，特斯拉第二季度营业利润率强劲，高达 11%，他预计特斯拉最近推出的 Autopilot 订阅服务将逐步改善这一利润率。</blockquote></p><p> On Aug. 3, Potter once again reiterated an overweight rating on the stock and a $1,200 price target, saying \"We still really like this stock.\" He pointed to growing demand for battery electric vehicles overall.</p><p><blockquote>8 月 3 日，波特再次重申了该股的跑赢大盘评级和 1,200 美元的目标价，并表示“我们仍然非常喜欢这只股票”。他指出，总体而言，对电池电动汽车的需求不断增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So what gives?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那么什么给出了呢？</b></blockquote></p><p> If shares could truly rise to $1,200, why do so many investors seem to think the stock is worth so much less (based on the stock's price of just under $700 at the time of this writing). After all, if $1,200 was generally viewed by investors as a likely outcome for Tesla stock within the next 12 months, shares would be trading significantly higher today.</p><p><blockquote>如果股价真的可以上涨到 1,200 美元，为什么这么多投资者似乎认为该股票的价值如此之低（基于撰写本文时该股票的价格略低于 700 美元）。毕竟，如果投资者普遍认为特斯拉股票在未来 12 个月内可能达到 1,200 美元，那么今天的股价将大幅走高。</blockquote></p><p> The issue boils down to the stock's forward-looking valuation. With a price-to-earnings ratio of about 370 at the time of this writing, Tesla shares are largely priced for strong growth for years to come. Since the company's valuation is based largely on profits far into the future, slight variances in views for Tesla's future growth trajectory yield dramatically different assumptions about the stock's intrinsic value today.</p><p><blockquote>问题归结为该股的前瞻性估值。截至撰写本文时，特斯拉股票的市盈率约为 370，预计未来几年将实现强劲增长。由于该公司的估值主要基于遥远未来的利润，因此对特斯拉未来增长轨迹的看法略有不同，就会对当今该股的内在价值产生截然不同的假设。</blockquote></p><p> Investors, therefore, shouldn't be quick to buy Tesla stock just because one analyst has a high price target for shares. Still, Potter does notably have some good points about Tesla's strong business momentum. Even Tesla itself reiterated guidance for vehicle deliveries to grow more than 50% this year -- and that guidance was provided during a time that many companies around the world (including Tesla) are negatively impacted by supply chain shortages. Further, Tesla management noted in its second-quarter update that demand for its vehicles was at an all-time high going into Q3.</p><p><blockquote>因此，投资者不应仅仅因为一位分析师对股票设定了较高的目标价就迅速购买特斯拉股票。尽管如此，波特对特斯拉强劲的业务势头确实有一些优点。就连特斯拉本身也重申了今年汽车交付量增长 50% 以上的指导，而这一指导是在世界各地许多公司（包括特斯拉）受到供应链短缺负面影响之际提供的。此外，特斯拉管理层在第二季度更新中指出，第三季度对其汽车的需求创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> While a $1,200 price target for Tesla stock would be difficult to justify, shares may be trading low enough for investors to start a small position in the stock.</p><p><blockquote>虽然特斯拉股票 1,200 美元的目标价很难证明其合理性，但股价可能足够低，投资者可以开始少量持有该股。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Stock: Headed to $1,200?<blockquote>特斯拉股票：走向 1,200 美元？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Stock: Headed to $1,200?<blockquote>特斯拉股票：走向 1,200 美元？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-08 09:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Key Points</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Tesla deliveries more than doubled year over year in Q2.</li>  <li>Rising demand for electric vehicles could benefit Tesla.</li>  <li>Investors should exercise caution when it comes to analysts' price targets.</li> </ul> It's been a wild year for&nbsp;<b>Tesla</b>(NASDAQ:TSLA)stock. When the year started, shares initially surged more than 20%. But the stock has now given up all of those gains, with a year-to-date return of negative 1%. This means the stock has significantly underperformed the&nbsp;<b>S&amp;P 500</b>'s 18% gain this year.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>特斯拉第二季度交付量同比增长一倍多。</li><li>对电动汽车不断增长的需求可能会使特斯拉受益。</li><li>投资者在谈到分析师的目标价时应谨慎。</li></ul>这是疯狂的一年<b>特斯拉</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）股票。今年年初，股价最初飙升超过 20%。但该股现在已经回吐了所有这些涨幅，今年迄今为止的回报率为负 1%。这意味着该股的表现明显逊于<b>标普500</b>今年增长了 18%。</blockquote></p><p> But one analyst thinks the stock could take off.</p><p><blockquote>但一位分析师认为该股可能会上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <b>\"We still really like this stock.\"</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“我们仍然非常喜欢这只股票。”</b></blockquote></p><p> In February,<b>Piper Sandler</b>&nbsp;analyst Alexander Pottermade a bold call, boosting his 12-month price target for thegrowth stockfrom $515 to $1,200. He said Tesla deliveries could increase from 500,000 vehicles in 2020 to nearly 900,000 this year. Of course, this projection was made before global supply shortages worsened. Nevertheless, Tesla is growing extremely rapidly. The company's second-quarter deliveries more than doubled compared to the year-ago quarter, rising to 201,304.</p><p><blockquote>二月份，<b>派珀·桑德勒</b>分析师 Alexander Potter 做出了大胆的看涨期权，将 The Growth 股票的 12 个月目标价从 515 美元上调至 1,200 美元。他表示，特斯拉的交付量可能会从 2020 年的 50 万辆增加到今年的近 90 万辆。当然，这一预测是在全球供应短缺恶化之前做出的。然而，特斯拉发展极其迅速。该公司第二季度的交付量比去年同期增加了一倍多，达到 201,304 辆。</blockquote></p><p> Following Tesla's second-quarter earnings release late last month, the analyst reiterated this target, noting that the company looks poised to benefit from market share gains, the monetization of the company's Autopilot software, and \"underappreciated opportunities\" in Tesla's energy business, which includes revenue from battery energy storage and solar energy generation products.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉上月底发布第二季度财报后，该分析师重申了这一目标，并指出该公司似乎有望从市场份额增长、公司自动驾驶软件的货币化以及特斯拉能源业务中“被低估的机会”中受益。业务，其中包括电池储能和太阳能发电产品的收入。</blockquote></p><p> Further, Potter pointed to Tesla's strong second-quarter operating margin of 11%, which he expects will see incremental improvement from Tesla's recently launched Autopilot subscription.</p><p><blockquote>此外，波特指出，特斯拉第二季度营业利润率强劲，高达 11%，他预计特斯拉最近推出的 Autopilot 订阅服务将逐步改善这一利润率。</blockquote></p><p> On Aug. 3, Potter once again reiterated an overweight rating on the stock and a $1,200 price target, saying \"We still really like this stock.\" He pointed to growing demand for battery electric vehicles overall.</p><p><blockquote>8 月 3 日，波特再次重申了该股的跑赢大盘评级和 1,200 美元的目标价，并表示“我们仍然非常喜欢这只股票”。他指出，总体而言，对电池电动汽车的需求不断增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So what gives?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那么什么给出了呢？</b></blockquote></p><p> If shares could truly rise to $1,200, why do so many investors seem to think the stock is worth so much less (based on the stock's price of just under $700 at the time of this writing). After all, if $1,200 was generally viewed by investors as a likely outcome for Tesla stock within the next 12 months, shares would be trading significantly higher today.</p><p><blockquote>如果股价真的可以上涨到 1,200 美元，为什么这么多投资者似乎认为该股票的价值如此之低（基于撰写本文时该股票的价格略低于 700 美元）。毕竟，如果投资者普遍认为特斯拉股票在未来 12 个月内可能达到 1,200 美元，那么今天的股价将大幅走高。</blockquote></p><p> The issue boils down to the stock's forward-looking valuation. With a price-to-earnings ratio of about 370 at the time of this writing, Tesla shares are largely priced for strong growth for years to come. Since the company's valuation is based largely on profits far into the future, slight variances in views for Tesla's future growth trajectory yield dramatically different assumptions about the stock's intrinsic value today.</p><p><blockquote>问题归结为该股的前瞻性估值。截至撰写本文时，特斯拉股票的市盈率约为 370，预计未来几年将实现强劲增长。由于该公司的估值主要基于遥远未来的利润，因此对特斯拉未来增长轨迹的看法略有不同，就会对当今该股的内在价值产生截然不同的假设。</blockquote></p><p> Investors, therefore, shouldn't be quick to buy Tesla stock just because one analyst has a high price target for shares. Still, Potter does notably have some good points about Tesla's strong business momentum. Even Tesla itself reiterated guidance for vehicle deliveries to grow more than 50% this year -- and that guidance was provided during a time that many companies around the world (including Tesla) are negatively impacted by supply chain shortages. Further, Tesla management noted in its second-quarter update that demand for its vehicles was at an all-time high going into Q3.</p><p><blockquote>因此，投资者不应仅仅因为一位分析师对股票设定了较高的目标价就迅速购买特斯拉股票。尽管如此，波特对特斯拉强劲的业务势头确实有一些优点。就连特斯拉本身也重申了今年汽车交付量增长 50% 以上的指导，而这一指导是在世界各地许多公司（包括特斯拉）受到供应链短缺负面影响之际提供的。此外，特斯拉管理层在第二季度更新中指出，第三季度对其汽车的需求创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> While a $1,200 price target for Tesla stock would be difficult to justify, shares may be trading low enough for investors to start a small position in the stock.</p><p><blockquote>虽然特斯拉股票 1,200 美元的目标价很难证明其合理性，但股价可能足够低，投资者可以开始少量持有该股。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/07/tesla-stock-headed-to-1200/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/07/tesla-stock-headed-to-1200/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159872041","content_text":"Key Points\n\nTesla deliveries more than doubled year over year in Q2.\nRising demand for electric vehicles could benefit Tesla.\nInvestors should exercise caution when it comes to analysts' price targets.\n\nIt's been a wild year for Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA)stock. When the year started, shares initially surged more than 20%. But the stock has now given up all of those gains, with a year-to-date return of negative 1%. This means the stock has significantly underperformed the S&P 500's 18% gain this year.\nBut one analyst thinks the stock could take off.\n\"We still really like this stock.\"\nIn February,Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Pottermade a bold call, boosting his 12-month price target for thegrowth stockfrom $515 to $1,200. He said Tesla deliveries could increase from 500,000 vehicles in 2020 to nearly 900,000 this year. Of course, this projection was made before global supply shortages worsened. Nevertheless, Tesla is growing extremely rapidly. The company's second-quarter deliveries more than doubled compared to the year-ago quarter, rising to 201,304.\nFollowing Tesla's second-quarter earnings release late last month, the analyst reiterated this target, noting that the company looks poised to benefit from market share gains, the monetization of the company's Autopilot software, and \"underappreciated opportunities\" in Tesla's energy business, which includes revenue from battery energy storage and solar energy generation products.\nFurther, Potter pointed to Tesla's strong second-quarter operating margin of 11%, which he expects will see incremental improvement from Tesla's recently launched Autopilot subscription.\nOn Aug. 3, Potter once again reiterated an overweight rating on the stock and a $1,200 price target, saying \"We still really like this stock.\" He pointed to growing demand for battery electric vehicles overall.\nSo what gives?\nIf shares could truly rise to $1,200, why do so many investors seem to think the stock is worth so much less (based on the stock's price of just under $700 at the time of this writing). After all, if $1,200 was generally viewed by investors as a likely outcome for Tesla stock within the next 12 months, shares would be trading significantly higher today.\nThe issue boils down to the stock's forward-looking valuation. With a price-to-earnings ratio of about 370 at the time of this writing, Tesla shares are largely priced for strong growth for years to come. Since the company's valuation is based largely on profits far into the future, slight variances in views for Tesla's future growth trajectory yield dramatically different assumptions about the stock's intrinsic value today.\nInvestors, therefore, shouldn't be quick to buy Tesla stock just because one analyst has a high price target for shares. Still, Potter does notably have some good points about Tesla's strong business momentum. Even Tesla itself reiterated guidance for vehicle deliveries to grow more than 50% this year -- and that guidance was provided during a time that many companies around the world (including Tesla) are negatively impacted by supply chain shortages. Further, Tesla management noted in its second-quarter update that demand for its vehicles was at an all-time high going into Q3.\nWhile a $1,200 price target for Tesla stock would be difficult to justify, shares may be trading low enough for investors to start a small position in the stock.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1037,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":106385380,"gmtCreate":1620088555540,"gmtModify":1634207949157,"author":{"id":"3576627310629871","authorId":"3576627310629871","name":"MrHappy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db25aeb48bc88043744fb93a4c4c3be2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576627310629871","idStr":"3576627310629871"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Out of the mind","listText":"Out of the mind","text":"Out of the mind","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/106385380","repostId":"1147234999","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":773,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":881483837,"gmtCreate":1631375975229,"gmtModify":1631883627311,"author":{"id":"3576627310629871","authorId":"3576627310629871","name":"MrHappy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db25aeb48bc88043744fb93a4c4c3be2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576627310629871","idStr":"3576627310629871"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>why","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>why","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$why","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa83ee056de7003c85ec01266e417fd8","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/881483837","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":689,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}