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Johnjohnn

Johnjohnn

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2021-12-24

2021-11-30

Still a bit high

Apple Stock: What to Expect During the Holiday Season<blockquote>苹果股票：假期期间的预期</blockquote>

2021-11-01

$Meta Platforms, Inc.(FB)$Up or down?

2021-10-19

$ASML Holding NV(ASML)$Hmm, sell?

2021-09-14

$MP Materials Corp.(MP)$nice

2021-09-09

Keep?

2021-09-06

$SOFI 20210917 13.5 PUT(SOFI)$🤔

2021-08-24

How true is this?

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-18

Intel

2021-08-12

What?

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-10

$ChargePoint Holdings Inc.(CHPT)$Looking great

2021-07-30

Great!

AMD: Still Growing, Still Undervalued<blockquote>AMD：仍在增长，仍被低估</blockquote>

2021-07-28

Anyone own this? Hold or sell?

2021-07-23

$SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$Drop more pls!

2021-07-21

$American Resources Corporation(AREC)$Come on

2021-07-19

$MP Materials Corp.(MP)$Hope it improves!

2021-07-19

$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$Sad

2021-07-15

Shag

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-15

Good for JD?

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-14

$American Resources Corporation(AREC)$How

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htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$AMD(AMD)$</a>Nice&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$AMD(AMD)$</a>Nice&nbsp;","text":"$AMD(AMD)$Nice","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cde822d1ed3fbd1caebdeccdbc56ff70","width":"1170","height":"2292"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698154705","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2325,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":609282610,"gmtCreate":1638286082931,"gmtModify":1638286082931,"author":{"id":"3576491127300046","authorId":"3576491127300046","name":"Johnjohnn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4915eff6e74b30b32df99de166e08340","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576491127300046","authorIdStr":"3576491127300046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Still a bit high","listText":"Still a bit high","text":"Still a bit high","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/609282610","repostId":"1158390889","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158390889","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638285505,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1158390889?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-30 23:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock: What to Expect During the Holiday Season<blockquote>苹果股票：假期期间的预期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158390889","media":"TheStreet","summary":"The 2021 holiday shopping season has officially started. Here is what Apple investors should expect of the Cupertino company and its stock in the next few weeks.Black Friday and Cyber Monday are behind us. With that, the 2021 holiday season in the US and parts of the world has officially begun. Consumer product and service companies like Apple are staring into the busiest weeks of sales in the year.Figure 1: Apple's iPhone, Apple Watch and Air Pods boxes.Today, the Apple Maven talks about what A","content":"<p>The 2021 holiday shopping season has officially started. Here is what Apple investors should expect of the Cupertino company and its stock in the next few weeks.</p><p><blockquote>2021年假日购物季正式开启。以下是苹果投资者在未来几周内对库比蒂诺公司及其股票的预期。</blockquote></p><p> Black Friday and Cyber Monday are behind us. With that, the 2021 holiday season in the US and parts of the world has officially begun. Consumer product and service companies like Apple are staring into the busiest weeks of sales in the year.</p><p><blockquote>黑色星期五和网络星期一已经过去了。至此，美国和世界部分地区的2021年假期正式开始。像苹果这样的消费品和服务公司正面临一年中销售最繁忙的几周。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84c9d46c1a03b350ba81dcd1e6e39c83\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1: Apple's iPhone, Apple Watch and Air Pods boxes.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：苹果的iPhone、苹果手表和Air Pods盒子。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Today, the Apple Maven talks about what Apple stock&nbsp;investors should think about as the shopping season kicks into gear.</p><p><blockquote>今天，这位苹果专家谈论了随着购物季的到来，苹果股票投资者应该思考什么。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple to benefit from strong consumer</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果将受益于强劲的消费者</b></blockquote></p><p> At the highest level possible, Apple is likely to benefit from a rising tide that lifts all boats in 2021. The chart below clearly shows that consumer spending in the US has not only recovered from the 2020 flash recession, but it has been “making up for lost time”. Spending trends have even accelerated slightly compared to the pre-pandemic period.</p><p><blockquote>在可能的最高水平上，苹果可能会受益于2021年的涨潮。下图清楚地表明，美国的消费者支出不仅从2020年的快速衰退中恢复过来，而且一直在“弥补失去的时间”。与疫情之前相比，支出趋势甚至略有加速。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edfb88f466fa1cfe1c35bddbd1cf1bb7\" tg-width=\"756\" tg-height=\"357\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 2: Consumer spending in US.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：美国消费者支出。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Regarding the holiday period, however, consumer product and service sales may look a bit atypical. Adobe has recently&nbsp;reported&nbsp;that Black Friday activity online dropped year-over-year for the first time ever. Online sales reached $8.9 billion, lower than 2020’s $9 billion.</p><p><blockquote>然而，就假期而言，消费品和服务销售可能看起来有点不寻常。Adobe最近报告称，黑色星期五在线活动首次同比下降。在线销售额达到89亿美元，低于2020年的90亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Without context, these numbers may look concerning. But once again, there is nothing typical about this COVID-19 crisis. Black Friday likely suffered from (1) consumers buying earlier than usual, to avoid delayed deliveries in late November and December, and (2) supply chain constraints causing shortages and missed sales opportunities.</p><p><blockquote>如果没有背景，这些数字可能看起来令人担忧。但同样，这场新冠肺炎危机没有任何典型之处。黑色星期五可能受到以下影响：(1)消费者比平时更早购买，以避免11月底和12月的延迟交货，以及(2)供应链限制导致短缺和错失销售机会。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple could do better than average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果可以做得比平均水平更好</b></blockquote></p><p> The demand scenario described above is at least modestly optimistic, in my view, even if not without challenges on the supply side. Even so, I think that Apple has a good chance of performing better than average in the next few weeks.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，上述需求情景至少是适度乐观的，即使供应方面并非没有挑战。即便如此，我认为苹果在未来几周的表现很有可能好于平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> For starters, the Cupertino company is&nbsp;one of the best in the world at managing inventory&nbsp;and supply chain. Consider, however, that CEO Tim Cook&nbsp;has already warned of an impact&nbsp;of $6 billion to revenues in the holiday quarter caused by the production and logistics bottlenecks.</p><p><blockquote>首先，库比蒂诺公司是世界上管理库存和供应链最好的公司之一。然而，首席执行官蒂姆·库克已经警告称，生产和物流瓶颈将对假日季度的收入造成60亿美元的影响。</blockquote></p><p> Second, the demand for Apple’s products and services seems unshaken.I have discussed a few times that the iPhone, for example, is likely to have its best years of sales ever in fiscal 2021 and 2022. Not even the tough comps introduced by the first 5G-capable model will likely be enough to steal the thunder of a well-received iPhone 13.</p><p><blockquote>其次，对苹果产品和服务的需求似乎没有动摇。例如，我曾多次讨论过iPhone可能会在2021财年和2022财年迎来有史以来销量最好的年份。即使是第一款支持5G的机型推出的强硬竞争也可能不足以抢走广受好评的iPhone 13的风头。</blockquote></p><p> <b>But how about AAPL stock?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>但苹果公司的股票怎么样？</b></blockquote></p><p> Keep in mind that financial performance, especially in the short term, does not always correlate with share price movements. In fact, any impact that the holiday P&amp;L results may have on Apple stock would likely not happen until late January 2022, when the company reports fiscal Q1 earnings.</p><p><blockquote>请记住，财务业绩，尤其是短期业绩，并不总是与股价变动相关。事实上，假日损益结果可能对苹果股票产生的任何影响可能要到2022年1月下旬该公司报告第一财季收益时才会发生。</blockquote></p><p> For the immediate term, Apple investors should keep in mind that the stock’s&nbsp;seasonal patterns have been historically unfavorable&nbsp;around this time of the year. The chart below shows that AAPL has clearly underperformed in November through January. Will this time be any different? Only time will tell.</p><p><blockquote>就近期而言，苹果投资者应记住，该股的季节性模式在每年的这个时候历来都是不利的。下图显示，AAPL从11月到1月的表现明显不佳。这次会有什么不同吗？只有时间能证明一切。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4c72a2f9720f472ceba32b24f4a2a78\" tg-width=\"682\" tg-height=\"357\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 3: AAPL average monthly return since iPhone launch.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图3：自iPhone推出以来AAPL的平均月回报率。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock: What to Expect During the Holiday Season<blockquote>苹果股票：假期期间的预期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock: What to Expect During the Holiday Season<blockquote>苹果股票：假期期间的预期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-30 23:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The 2021 holiday shopping season has officially started. Here is what Apple investors should expect of the Cupertino company and its stock in the next few weeks.</p><p><blockquote>2021年假日购物季正式开启。以下是苹果投资者在未来几周内对库比蒂诺公司及其股票的预期。</blockquote></p><p> Black Friday and Cyber Monday are behind us. With that, the 2021 holiday season in the US and parts of the world has officially begun. Consumer product and service companies like Apple are staring into the busiest weeks of sales in the year.</p><p><blockquote>黑色星期五和网络星期一已经过去了。至此，美国和世界部分地区的2021年假期正式开始。像苹果这样的消费品和服务公司正面临一年中销售最繁忙的几周。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84c9d46c1a03b350ba81dcd1e6e39c83\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1: Apple's iPhone, Apple Watch and Air Pods boxes.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：苹果的iPhone、苹果手表和Air Pods盒子。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Today, the Apple Maven talks about what Apple stock&nbsp;investors should think about as the shopping season kicks into gear.</p><p><blockquote>今天，这位苹果专家谈论了随着购物季的到来，苹果股票投资者应该思考什么。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple to benefit from strong consumer</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果将受益于强劲的消费者</b></blockquote></p><p> At the highest level possible, Apple is likely to benefit from a rising tide that lifts all boats in 2021. The chart below clearly shows that consumer spending in the US has not only recovered from the 2020 flash recession, but it has been “making up for lost time”. Spending trends have even accelerated slightly compared to the pre-pandemic period.</p><p><blockquote>在可能的最高水平上，苹果可能会受益于2021年的涨潮。下图清楚地表明，美国的消费者支出不仅从2020年的快速衰退中恢复过来，而且一直在“弥补失去的时间”。与疫情之前相比，支出趋势甚至略有加速。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edfb88f466fa1cfe1c35bddbd1cf1bb7\" tg-width=\"756\" tg-height=\"357\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 2: Consumer spending in US.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：美国消费者支出。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Regarding the holiday period, however, consumer product and service sales may look a bit atypical. Adobe has recently&nbsp;reported&nbsp;that Black Friday activity online dropped year-over-year for the first time ever. Online sales reached $8.9 billion, lower than 2020’s $9 billion.</p><p><blockquote>然而，就假期而言，消费品和服务销售可能看起来有点不寻常。Adobe最近报告称，黑色星期五在线活动首次同比下降。在线销售额达到89亿美元，低于2020年的90亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Without context, these numbers may look concerning. But once again, there is nothing typical about this COVID-19 crisis. Black Friday likely suffered from (1) consumers buying earlier than usual, to avoid delayed deliveries in late November and December, and (2) supply chain constraints causing shortages and missed sales opportunities.</p><p><blockquote>如果没有背景，这些数字可能看起来令人担忧。但同样，这场新冠肺炎危机没有任何典型之处。黑色星期五可能受到以下影响：(1)消费者比平时更早购买，以避免11月底和12月的延迟交货，以及(2)供应链限制导致短缺和错失销售机会。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple could do better than average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果可以做得比平均水平更好</b></blockquote></p><p> The demand scenario described above is at least modestly optimistic, in my view, even if not without challenges on the supply side. Even so, I think that Apple has a good chance of performing better than average in the next few weeks.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，上述需求情景至少是适度乐观的，即使供应方面并非没有挑战。即便如此，我认为苹果在未来几周的表现很有可能好于平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> For starters, the Cupertino company is&nbsp;one of the best in the world at managing inventory&nbsp;and supply chain. Consider, however, that CEO Tim Cook&nbsp;has already warned of an impact&nbsp;of $6 billion to revenues in the holiday quarter caused by the production and logistics bottlenecks.</p><p><blockquote>首先，库比蒂诺公司是世界上管理库存和供应链最好的公司之一。然而，首席执行官蒂姆·库克已经警告称，生产和物流瓶颈将对假日季度的收入造成60亿美元的影响。</blockquote></p><p> Second, the demand for Apple’s products and services seems unshaken.I have discussed a few times that the iPhone, for example, is likely to have its best years of sales ever in fiscal 2021 and 2022. Not even the tough comps introduced by the first 5G-capable model will likely be enough to steal the thunder of a well-received iPhone 13.</p><p><blockquote>其次，对苹果产品和服务的需求似乎没有动摇。例如，我曾多次讨论过iPhone可能会在2021财年和2022财年迎来有史以来销量最好的年份。即使是第一款支持5G的机型推出的强硬竞争也可能不足以抢走广受好评的iPhone 13的风头。</blockquote></p><p> <b>But how about AAPL stock?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>但苹果公司的股票怎么样？</b></blockquote></p><p> Keep in mind that financial performance, especially in the short term, does not always correlate with share price movements. In fact, any impact that the holiday P&amp;L results may have on Apple stock would likely not happen until late January 2022, when the company reports fiscal Q1 earnings.</p><p><blockquote>请记住，财务业绩，尤其是短期业绩，并不总是与股价变动相关。事实上，假日损益结果可能对苹果股票产生的任何影响可能要到2022年1月下旬该公司报告第一财季收益时才会发生。</blockquote></p><p> For the immediate term, Apple investors should keep in mind that the stock’s&nbsp;seasonal patterns have been historically unfavorable&nbsp;around this time of the year. The chart below shows that AAPL has clearly underperformed in November through January. Will this time be any different? Only time will tell.</p><p><blockquote>就近期而言，苹果投资者应记住，该股的季节性模式在每年的这个时候历来都是不利的。下图显示，AAPL从11月到1月的表现明显不佳。这次会有什么不同吗？只有时间能证明一切。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4c72a2f9720f472ceba32b24f4a2a78\" tg-width=\"682\" tg-height=\"357\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 3: AAPL average monthly return since iPhone launch.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图3：自iPhone推出以来AAPL的平均月回报率。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-holiday-season-starts-what-next\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-holiday-season-starts-what-next","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158390889","content_text":"The 2021 holiday shopping season has officially started. Here is what Apple investors should expect of the Cupertino company and its stock in the next few weeks.\nBlack Friday and Cyber Monday are behind us. With that, the 2021 holiday season in the US and parts of the world has officially begun. Consumer product and service companies like Apple are staring into the busiest weeks of sales in the year.\nFigure 1: Apple's iPhone, Apple Watch and Air Pods boxes.\nToday, the Apple Maven talks about what Apple stock investors should think about as the shopping season kicks into gear.\nApple to benefit from strong consumer\nAt the highest level possible, Apple is likely to benefit from a rising tide that lifts all boats in 2021. The chart below clearly shows that consumer spending in the US has not only recovered from the 2020 flash recession, but it has been “making up for lost time”. Spending trends have even accelerated slightly compared to the pre-pandemic period.\nFigure 2: Consumer spending in US.\nRegarding the holiday period, however, consumer product and service sales may look a bit atypical. Adobe has recently reported that Black Friday activity online dropped year-over-year for the first time ever. Online sales reached $8.9 billion, lower than 2020’s $9 billion.\nWithout context, these numbers may look concerning. But once again, there is nothing typical about this COVID-19 crisis. Black Friday likely suffered from (1) consumers buying earlier than usual, to avoid delayed deliveries in late November and December, and (2) supply chain constraints causing shortages and missed sales opportunities.\nApple could do better than average\nThe demand scenario described above is at least modestly optimistic, in my view, even if not without challenges on the supply side. Even so, I think that Apple has a good chance of performing better than average in the next few weeks.\nFor starters, the Cupertino company is one of the best in the world at managing inventory and supply chain. Consider, however, that CEO Tim Cook has already warned of an impact of $6 billion to revenues in the holiday quarter caused by the production and logistics bottlenecks.\nSecond, the demand for Apple’s products and services seems unshaken.I have discussed a few times that the iPhone, for example, is likely to have its best years of sales ever in fiscal 2021 and 2022. Not even the tough comps introduced by the first 5G-capable model will likely be enough to steal the thunder of a well-received iPhone 13.\nBut how about AAPL stock?\nKeep in mind that financial performance, especially in the short term, does not always correlate with share price movements. In fact, any impact that the holiday P&L results may have on Apple stock would likely not happen until late January 2022, when the company reports fiscal Q1 earnings.\nFor the immediate term, Apple investors should keep in mind that the stock’s seasonal patterns have been historically unfavorable around this time of the year. The chart below shows that AAPL has clearly underperformed in November through January. Will this time be any different? Only time will tell.\nFigure 3: AAPL average monthly return since iPhone launch.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2575,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":849878432,"gmtCreate":1635746596203,"gmtModify":1635746596203,"author":{"id":"3576491127300046","authorId":"3576491127300046","name":"Johnjohnn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4915eff6e74b30b32df99de166e08340","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576491127300046","authorIdStr":"3576491127300046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">$Meta Platforms, Inc.(FB)$</a>Up or down?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">$Meta Platforms, Inc.(FB)$</a>Up or down?","text":"$Meta Platforms, Inc.(FB)$Up or 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sell?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89536e05224414a875b7e5342f2a1b62","width":"1170","height":"2292"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850764647","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3185,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":886758528,"gmtCreate":1631627620864,"gmtModify":1631885825437,"author":{"id":"3576491127300046","authorId":"3576491127300046","name":"Johnjohnn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4915eff6e74b30b32df99de166e08340","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576491127300046","authorIdStr":"3576491127300046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MP\">$MP Materials Corp.(MP)$</a>nice&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MP\">$MP Materials Corp.(MP)$</a>nice&nbsp;","text":"$MP Materials Corp.(MP)$nice","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f1ab368e2d1dd18847629c63a428146","width":"1170","height":"2026"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/886758528","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1559,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":883955498,"gmtCreate":1631197958114,"gmtModify":1631890206884,"author":{"id":"3576491127300046","authorId":"3576491127300046","name":"Johnjohnn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4915eff6e74b30b32df99de166e08340","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576491127300046","authorIdStr":"3576491127300046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Keep?","listText":"Keep?","text":"Keep?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a724657062eef1db5f744a4db57c5d","width":"1125","height":"3526"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/883955498","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1572,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":817080003,"gmtCreate":1630890767302,"gmtModify":1631884410588,"author":{"id":"3576491127300046","authorId":"3576491127300046","name":"Johnjohnn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4915eff6e74b30b32df99de166e08340","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576491127300046","authorIdStr":"3576491127300046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOFI\">$SOFI 20210917 13.5 PUT(SOFI)$</a>🤔","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOFI\">$SOFI 20210917 13.5 PUT(SOFI)$</a>🤔","text":"$SOFI 20210917 13.5 PUT(SOFI)$🤔","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbb2302853a5299b542e9e5556571980","width":"1170","height":"2026"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/817080003","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1563,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":834611536,"gmtCreate":1629796191725,"gmtModify":1631890206890,"author":{"id":"3576491127300046","authorId":"3576491127300046","name":"Johnjohnn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4915eff6e74b30b32df99de166e08340","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576491127300046","authorIdStr":"3576491127300046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"How true is this?","listText":"How true is this?","text":"How true is this?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/834611536","repostId":"1170452539","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1886,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":833771744,"gmtCreate":1629268749188,"gmtModify":1631885478905,"author":{"id":"3576491127300046","authorId":"3576491127300046","name":"Johnjohnn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4915eff6e74b30b32df99de166e08340","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576491127300046","authorIdStr":"3576491127300046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Intel","listText":"Intel","text":"Intel","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e00e3f42544929729e8f8d3deec77b97","width":"1125","height":"3439"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/833771744","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1389,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":895792265,"gmtCreate":1628771766757,"gmtModify":1631890206915,"author":{"id":"3576491127300046","authorId":"3576491127300046","name":"Johnjohnn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4915eff6e74b30b32df99de166e08340","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576491127300046","authorIdStr":"3576491127300046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"What?","listText":"What?","text":"What?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/895792265","repostId":"1124285877","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1517,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":896183692,"gmtCreate":1628561572916,"gmtModify":1631885747746,"author":{"id":"3576491127300046","authorId":"3576491127300046","name":"Johnjohnn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4915eff6e74b30b32df99de166e08340","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576491127300046","authorIdStr":"3576491127300046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHPT\">$ChargePoint Holdings Inc.(CHPT)$</a>Looking great","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHPT\">$ChargePoint Holdings Inc.(CHPT)$</a>Looking great","text":"$ChargePoint Holdings Inc.(CHPT)$Looking great","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c904692dd1c12d43748fa065c464ce4","width":"1170","height":"2026"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/896183692","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":535,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":806866844,"gmtCreate":1627649847688,"gmtModify":1631890206900,"author":{"id":"3576491127300046","authorId":"3576491127300046","name":"Johnjohnn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4915eff6e74b30b32df99de166e08340","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576491127300046","authorIdStr":"3576491127300046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great!","listText":"Great!","text":"Great!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/806866844","repostId":"1135561812","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135561812","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627637430,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1135561812?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-30 17:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMD: Still Growing, Still Undervalued<blockquote>AMD：仍在增长，仍被低估</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135561812","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"AMD's margin gains are driven by growing strength in end markets.AMD raised its revenue guidance by $1.0B for FY 2021 and gross margins are edging closer to 50%.AMD's dollar sales growth is cheaper than Nvidia's and AMD might even grow faster.The most interesting revelation of AMD’s Q2’21 earnings, however, was the trend in gross margins. AMD's gross margin jumped 4 PP to 48%, 1 PP above guidance because of a better mix of higher-priced Ryzen processors  and Radeon graphic cards. The uptick in g","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>AMD's margin gains are driven by growing strength in end markets.</li>  <li>AMD raised its revenue guidance by $1.0B for FY 2021 and gross margins are edging closer to 50%.</li>  <li>The semiconductor firm could be a $6.0B free cash flow business next year, even if growth slows down.</li>  <li>AMD's dollar sales growth is cheaper than Nvidia's and AMD might even grow faster.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e6e179318de667e33987f1b4a2afb27\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Jay_Zynism/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>AMD的利润率增长是由终端市场实力的增强推动的。</li><li>AMD将2021财年的收入指引上调了$1.0 B，毛利率接近50%。</li><li>即使增长放缓，这家半导体公司明年的自由现金流也可能达到$6.0 B。</li><li>AMD的美元销售额增长比Nvidia便宜，而且AMD的增长速度甚至可能更快。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Jay_Zynism/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AMD (AMD) made a splash yesterday after the semiconductor company reported growth and margins that were even better than what was expected. AMD’s revenue acceleration and strong gross margin expansion make a strong case for upside in the stock.</p><p><blockquote>AMD(AMD)昨天引起了轰动，此前这家半导体公司公布的增长和利润率甚至好于预期。AMD的收入加速和毛利率强劲扩张为该股的上涨提供了强有力的理由。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why AMD is worth $120</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么AMD值120美元</b></blockquote></p><p> Before I dive into AMD’s latestresults, let’s quickly recap what the firm’s guidance was for the last quarter. For Q2’21, AMD expected a minimum of $3.5B in revenues with “high case” guidance implying 7% revenue growth Q/Q and a gross margin of 47%.</p><p><blockquote>在我深入了解AMD的最新业绩之前，让我们快速回顾一下该公司上季度的指引。对于21年第二季度，AMD预计收入至少为$3.5 B，“高案例”指导意味着收入环比增长7%，毛利率为47%。</blockquote></p><p> I expected AMD’s revenues to hit the high end of guidance ($3.7B), to have a minimum free cash flow of $895M (8% Q/Q growth) and a free cash flow margin of 24%. Given the acceleration of sales in higher-priced Ryzen desktop and notebook processors and GPUs as well as higher average selling prices/ASPs driven by broad-based strength in end markets, I expected AMD to beat its own margin guidance and report a gross margin of 48% for Q2’21. I also predicted a refreshment of AMD’s gross margin guidance due to strength in CPU and GPU ASPs. I laid out my forecast for AMD’s Q2’21 earnings in detail inAMD: On The Road To $5 Billion In Annual Free Cash Flow.</p><p><blockquote>我预计AMD的收入将达到指导上限（$3.7 B），最低自由现金流为8.95亿美元（环比增长8%），自由现金流利润率为24%。鉴于价格较高的锐龙台式机和笔记本处理器和GPU的销售加速，以及终端市场广泛实力推动的平均售价/ASP上升，我预计AMD将超出自己的利润率指导，并报告毛利率21年第二季度为48%。我还预测，由于CPU和GPU平均售价的强劲，AMD的毛利率指引将会更新。我在《AMD：迈向50亿美元的年度自由现金流》中详细阐述了对AMD 21年第二季度收益的预测。</blockquote></p><p> Turning to AMD’s actual results, the semiconductor firm proved once more that it is firing on all cylinders. AMD’s Q2’21 revenues were $3,850M, $150M above the high-end of guidance and up 12% Q/Q, with revenue momentum continuing in both Graphics/Computing and Enterprise markets. Graphics/Computing revenues increased 7% Q/Q to $2,250M because of higher client and graphic processor sales as well as strengthening ASPs. Enterprise, which has become the driver of AMD’s sales growth in recent quarters, saw Q2'21 revenues of $1.6B, up 19% Q/Q. Enterprise revenues continued to accelerate in Q2'21, after AMD recorded 5% Q/Q revenue growth in Q1'21.</p><p><blockquote>谈到AMD的实际业绩，这家半导体公司再次证明了它正在全力以赴。AMD 21年第二季度的收入为38.5亿美元，比指导上限高出1.5亿美元，环比增长12%，图形/计算和企业市场的收入势头仍在继续。由于客户端和图形处理器销售额的增加以及平均售价的提高，图形/计算收入环比增长7%，达到22.5亿美元。企业业务已成为AMD近几个季度销售增长的驱动力，21年第二季度收入为$1.6 B，环比增长19%。继AMD在21年第一季度录得5%的季度收入增长后，企业收入在21年第二季度继续加速。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ec3e9d1f0b7d59915f9db8790725803\" tg-width=\"1039\" tg-height=\"587\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source:AMD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：AMD）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The most interesting revelation of AMD’s Q2’21 earnings, however, was the trend in gross margins. AMD's gross margin jumped 4 PP to 48%, 1 PP above guidance because of a better mix of higher-priced Ryzen processors (both mobile and desktop) and Radeon graphic cards. The uptick in gross margins in Q2’21 marked the third straight quarter of margin expansion for AMD and I don’t believe AMD has seen the end of this trend yet.</p><p><blockquote>然而，AMD 21年第二季度收益中最有趣的启示是毛利率的趋势。AMD的毛利率跃升4个百分点至48%，比指导值高出1个百分点，原因是价格较高的锐龙处理器（移动和桌面）和镭龙显卡的更好组合。21年第二季度毛利率的上升标志着AMD利润率连续第三个季度扩张，我认为AMD还没有看到这一趋势的结束。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dca6426ffa1332827a6774554d499c36\" tg-width=\"1048\" tg-height=\"566\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source:AMD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：AMD）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Turning to cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>转向现金流。</blockquote></p><p> AMD reported cash flow from operating activities of $952M and free cash flow of $888M, $7M short of my expectation, but still almost six times more than a year ago. As AMD continues to see strong revenue growth tailwinds in both Computing/Graphics and Enterprise end markets, I believe AMD could grow its free cash flow margin to 30% by the end of next year. AMD raised its revenue guidance for FY 2021 (discussed later) by $1.0B which means I am also refreshing my free cash flow expectations for this year and next year.</p><p><blockquote>AMD报告的经营活动现金流为9.52亿美元，自由现金流为8.88亿美元，比我的预期低700万美元，但仍是一年前的近六倍。随着AMD在计算/图形和企业终端市场继续看到强劲的收入增长，我相信AMD可以在明年年底前将其自由现金流利润率提高到30%。AMD将2021财年的收入指引（稍后讨论）提高了$1.0 B，这意味着我也刷新了今年和明年的自由现金流预期。</blockquote></p><p> AMD expects to have revenues of $15.6B this year. Assuming a stable free cash flow margin of 23-24%, AMD is looking at free cash flow of $3.6B to $3.7B. Revenue estimates for next year are not refreshed yet, but AMD should have revenues of at least $20B in FY 2022 (assuming 25% Y/Y growth), implying free cash flow of $4.6B to $4.8B next year… and these estimates do not account for the possibility that AMD’s 3rd-gen EPYC Milan-powered server processors and higher-priced GPUs improve AMD’s free cash flow margin. A 30% free cash flow margin next year implies a free cash flow of $6.0B.</p><p><blockquote>AMD预计今年的收入为$15.6 B。假设稳定的自由现金流利润率为23-24%，AMD预计自由现金流为$3.6 B至$3.7 B。明年的收入预期尚未更新，但AMD在2022财年的收入应至少为$20B（假设同比增长25%），这意味着明年的自由现金流为$4.6 B至$4.8 B……而这些预期并未考虑AMD第三代EPYC Milan驱动的服务器处理器和价格更高的GPU提高AMD自由现金流利润率的可能性。明年30%的自由现金流利润率意味着自由现金流为$6.0 B。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ea23b7429f2edd8ce6dda945a88daa7\" tg-width=\"819\" tg-height=\"593\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr></tr>  </tbody> </table> AMD is guiding for $4.1B in revenues +/- $100 million and the firm refreshed its FY 2021 revenue and gross margin guidance (as predicted). AMD now expects 60% revenue growth for FY 2021 (before 50%) and a gross margin of 48% (before 47%). Assuming 60% revenue growth, AMD is now looking at full year revenues of $15.6B (before $14.6B), so AMD's new guidance calls for $1.0B in additional revenues that were so far not priced into AMD’s market value.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table>AMD预计收入为41亿美元+/-1亿美元，该公司更新了2021财年收入和毛利率指引（如预期）。AMD目前预计2021财年收入增长60%（之前为50%），毛利率为48%（之前为47%）。假设收入增长60%，AMD目前预计全年收入为$15.6 B（之前为$14.6 B），因此AMD的新指导评级为$1.0 B的额外收入，这些收入迄今为止尚未计入AMD的市值。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e5c3c579e4a6472ae2c495a325b9a2b\" tg-width=\"1038\" tg-height=\"572\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source:AMD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：AMD）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AMD’s higher gross margins and sales guidance create a potent force for the firm’s stock to revalue higher. Because of the recent dip in AMD’s shares and the addition of $1.0B in revenues, AMD’s dollar sales growth has become even cheaper after earnings. AMD’s dollar sales growth is valued lower than Nvidia’s and AMD is growing potentially at a faster rate: AMD's revenue guidance calls for 60% Y/Y growth and estimates for Nvidia imply \"only\" 49% Y/Y revenue growth for FY 2021. AMD has a market-capitalization-to-earnings ratio of 42.5 which is low for a firm that grows revenues 60% and that has a gross margin closing in on 50%.</p><p><blockquote>AMD较高的毛利率和销售指引为该公司股票升值创造了强大的力量。由于AMD股价最近下跌以及收入增加了$1.0 B，AMD的美元销售额增长在盈利后变得更加便宜。AMD的美元销售额增长低于Nvidia，而且AMD的增长速度可能更快：AMD的收入指导评级为同比增长60%，对Nvidia的预测意味着2021财年“仅”同比增长49%。AMD的市值与市盈率为42.5，对于一家收入增长60%、毛利率接近50%的公司来说，这是很低的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/653c9dd9d37a4abd742703bd87dd3534\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"312\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr></tr>  </tbody> </table> Nvidia’s P-E ratio based on an FY 2022 EPS of $17.29 is 44.5. If AMD earnings growth (FY 2022 EPS of $2.71) was valued the same as Nvidia’s, AMD’s fair price would be $120 ($2.71 x 44.5 earnings multiplier factor), indicating 17% upside.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table>基于2022财年每股收益17.29美元，Nvidia的市盈率为44.5。如果AMD的盈利增长（2022财年每股收益为2.71美元）与Nvidia的估值相同，AMD的公平价格将为120美元（2.71美元x 44.5盈利乘数系数），表明上涨空间为17%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Challenges to my price target</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我的价格目标面临的挑战</b></blockquote></p><p> The biggest opportunities and the biggest risks for AMD are tied to gross margins. AMD is having a year of strong revenue acceleration and margin growth, which is the chief reason why I believe AMD can revalue higher. But gross margins can't grow 3-4 PP every quarter. If AMD's gross margin expansion slows, or worse, gross margins drop back to 40%, decreasing stock returns for AMD are likely. A reversal in the gross margin trend would change my opinion on AMD and put my $120 stock price target in jeopardy.</p><p><blockquote>AMD最大的机遇和最大的风险都与毛利率有关。AMD今年的收入加速和利润率增长强劲，这是我相信AMD可以重估更高的主要原因。但毛利率不可能每个季度增长3-4个PP。如果AMD的毛利率扩张放缓，或者更糟的是，毛利率回落至40%，AMD的股票回报可能会下降。毛利率趋势的逆转将改变我对AMD的看法，并使我120美元的股价目标面临危险。</blockquote></p><p> Softening ASPs for CPUs and graphic chips are likely going to be the canary in the coal mine and could indicate weakening end markets for AMD ahead of time. Softer end markets imply AMD's revenue growth will slow which could result in a lower earnings multiplier factor by which AMD's profits are valued. I don't believe AMD is overvalued based on earnings, but the market may disagree with my assessment at any time.</p><p><blockquote>CPU和图形芯片的平均售价疲软可能会成为煤矿中的金丝雀，并可能预示着AMD终端市场的提前疲软。终端市场疲软意味着AMD的收入增长将放缓，这可能会导致AMD利润估值的盈利乘数降低。我不认为AMD基于盈利被高估，但市场随时可能不同意我的评估。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> AMD reported impressive revenue growth and gross margins for Q2. AMD's raised guidance and Q/Q revenue acceleration indicate that end markets for CPUs and GPUs are a lot stronger than expected. This could lead to another year of revenue acceleration and a continual expansion of AMD’s gross margin to 50%, supported by rising ASPs. AMD's risk profile is still heavily skewed to the upside.</p><p><blockquote>AMD报告第二季度收入增长和毛利率令人印象深刻。AMD上调指引和环比收入加速表明CPU和GPU的终端市场远强于预期。在平均售价上升的支持下，这可能会导致又一年的收入加速增长，AMD的毛利率持续扩大至50%。AMD的风险状况仍然严重偏向上行。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD: Still Growing, Still Undervalued<blockquote>AMD：仍在增长，仍被低估</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD: Still Growing, Still Undervalued<blockquote>AMD：仍在增长，仍被低估</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-30 17:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>AMD's margin gains are driven by growing strength in end markets.</li>  <li>AMD raised its revenue guidance by $1.0B for FY 2021 and gross margins are edging closer to 50%.</li>  <li>The semiconductor firm could be a $6.0B free cash flow business next year, even if growth slows down.</li>  <li>AMD's dollar sales growth is cheaper than Nvidia's and AMD might even grow faster.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e6e179318de667e33987f1b4a2afb27\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Jay_Zynism/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>AMD的利润率增长是由终端市场实力的增强推动的。</li><li>AMD将2021财年的收入指引上调了$1.0 B，毛利率接近50%。</li><li>即使增长放缓，这家半导体公司明年的自由现金流也可能达到$6.0 B。</li><li>AMD的美元销售额增长比Nvidia便宜，而且AMD的增长速度甚至可能更快。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Jay_Zynism/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AMD (AMD) made a splash yesterday after the semiconductor company reported growth and margins that were even better than what was expected. AMD’s revenue acceleration and strong gross margin expansion make a strong case for upside in the stock.</p><p><blockquote>AMD(AMD)昨天引起了轰动，此前这家半导体公司公布的增长和利润率甚至好于预期。AMD的收入加速和毛利率强劲扩张为该股的上涨提供了强有力的理由。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why AMD is worth $120</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么AMD值120美元</b></blockquote></p><p> Before I dive into AMD’s latestresults, let’s quickly recap what the firm’s guidance was for the last quarter. For Q2’21, AMD expected a minimum of $3.5B in revenues with “high case” guidance implying 7% revenue growth Q/Q and a gross margin of 47%.</p><p><blockquote>在我深入了解AMD的最新业绩之前，让我们快速回顾一下该公司上季度的指引。对于21年第二季度，AMD预计收入至少为$3.5 B，“高案例”指导意味着收入环比增长7%，毛利率为47%。</blockquote></p><p> I expected AMD’s revenues to hit the high end of guidance ($3.7B), to have a minimum free cash flow of $895M (8% Q/Q growth) and a free cash flow margin of 24%. Given the acceleration of sales in higher-priced Ryzen desktop and notebook processors and GPUs as well as higher average selling prices/ASPs driven by broad-based strength in end markets, I expected AMD to beat its own margin guidance and report a gross margin of 48% for Q2’21. I also predicted a refreshment of AMD’s gross margin guidance due to strength in CPU and GPU ASPs. I laid out my forecast for AMD’s Q2’21 earnings in detail inAMD: On The Road To $5 Billion In Annual Free Cash Flow.</p><p><blockquote>我预计AMD的收入将达到指导上限（$3.7 B），最低自由现金流为8.95亿美元（环比增长8%），自由现金流利润率为24%。鉴于价格较高的锐龙台式机和笔记本处理器和GPU的销售加速，以及终端市场广泛实力推动的平均售价/ASP上升，我预计AMD将超出自己的利润率指导，并报告毛利率21年第二季度为48%。我还预测，由于CPU和GPU平均售价的强劲，AMD的毛利率指引将会更新。我在《AMD：迈向50亿美元的年度自由现金流》中详细阐述了对AMD 21年第二季度收益的预测。</blockquote></p><p> Turning to AMD’s actual results, the semiconductor firm proved once more that it is firing on all cylinders. AMD’s Q2’21 revenues were $3,850M, $150M above the high-end of guidance and up 12% Q/Q, with revenue momentum continuing in both Graphics/Computing and Enterprise markets. Graphics/Computing revenues increased 7% Q/Q to $2,250M because of higher client and graphic processor sales as well as strengthening ASPs. Enterprise, which has become the driver of AMD’s sales growth in recent quarters, saw Q2'21 revenues of $1.6B, up 19% Q/Q. Enterprise revenues continued to accelerate in Q2'21, after AMD recorded 5% Q/Q revenue growth in Q1'21.</p><p><blockquote>谈到AMD的实际业绩，这家半导体公司再次证明了它正在全力以赴。AMD 21年第二季度的收入为38.5亿美元，比指导上限高出1.5亿美元，环比增长12%，图形/计算和企业市场的收入势头仍在继续。由于客户端和图形处理器销售额的增加以及平均售价的提高，图形/计算收入环比增长7%，达到22.5亿美元。企业业务已成为AMD近几个季度销售增长的驱动力，21年第二季度收入为$1.6 B，环比增长19%。继AMD在21年第一季度录得5%的季度收入增长后，企业收入在21年第二季度继续加速。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ec3e9d1f0b7d59915f9db8790725803\" tg-width=\"1039\" tg-height=\"587\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source:AMD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：AMD）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The most interesting revelation of AMD’s Q2’21 earnings, however, was the trend in gross margins. AMD's gross margin jumped 4 PP to 48%, 1 PP above guidance because of a better mix of higher-priced Ryzen processors (both mobile and desktop) and Radeon graphic cards. The uptick in gross margins in Q2’21 marked the third straight quarter of margin expansion for AMD and I don’t believe AMD has seen the end of this trend yet.</p><p><blockquote>然而，AMD 21年第二季度收益中最有趣的启示是毛利率的趋势。AMD的毛利率跃升4个百分点至48%，比指导值高出1个百分点，原因是价格较高的锐龙处理器（移动和桌面）和镭龙显卡的更好组合。21年第二季度毛利率的上升标志着AMD利润率连续第三个季度扩张，我认为AMD还没有看到这一趋势的结束。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dca6426ffa1332827a6774554d499c36\" tg-width=\"1048\" tg-height=\"566\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source:AMD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：AMD）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Turning to cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>转向现金流。</blockquote></p><p> AMD reported cash flow from operating activities of $952M and free cash flow of $888M, $7M short of my expectation, but still almost six times more than a year ago. As AMD continues to see strong revenue growth tailwinds in both Computing/Graphics and Enterprise end markets, I believe AMD could grow its free cash flow margin to 30% by the end of next year. AMD raised its revenue guidance for FY 2021 (discussed later) by $1.0B which means I am also refreshing my free cash flow expectations for this year and next year.</p><p><blockquote>AMD报告的经营活动现金流为9.52亿美元，自由现金流为8.88亿美元，比我的预期低700万美元，但仍是一年前的近六倍。随着AMD在计算/图形和企业终端市场继续看到强劲的收入增长，我相信AMD可以在明年年底前将其自由现金流利润率提高到30%。AMD将2021财年的收入指引（稍后讨论）提高了$1.0 B，这意味着我也刷新了今年和明年的自由现金流预期。</blockquote></p><p> AMD expects to have revenues of $15.6B this year. Assuming a stable free cash flow margin of 23-24%, AMD is looking at free cash flow of $3.6B to $3.7B. Revenue estimates for next year are not refreshed yet, but AMD should have revenues of at least $20B in FY 2022 (assuming 25% Y/Y growth), implying free cash flow of $4.6B to $4.8B next year… and these estimates do not account for the possibility that AMD’s 3rd-gen EPYC Milan-powered server processors and higher-priced GPUs improve AMD’s free cash flow margin. A 30% free cash flow margin next year implies a free cash flow of $6.0B.</p><p><blockquote>AMD预计今年的收入为$15.6 B。假设稳定的自由现金流利润率为23-24%，AMD预计自由现金流为$3.6 B至$3.7 B。明年的收入预期尚未更新，但AMD在2022财年的收入应至少为$20B（假设同比增长25%），这意味着明年的自由现金流为$4.6 B至$4.8 B……而这些预期并未考虑AMD第三代EPYC Milan驱动的服务器处理器和价格更高的GPU提高AMD自由现金流利润率的可能性。明年30%的自由现金流利润率意味着自由现金流为$6.0 B。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ea23b7429f2edd8ce6dda945a88daa7\" tg-width=\"819\" tg-height=\"593\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr></tr>  </tbody> </table> AMD is guiding for $4.1B in revenues +/- $100 million and the firm refreshed its FY 2021 revenue and gross margin guidance (as predicted). AMD now expects 60% revenue growth for FY 2021 (before 50%) and a gross margin of 48% (before 47%). Assuming 60% revenue growth, AMD is now looking at full year revenues of $15.6B (before $14.6B), so AMD's new guidance calls for $1.0B in additional revenues that were so far not priced into AMD’s market value.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table>AMD预计收入为41亿美元+/-1亿美元，该公司更新了2021财年收入和毛利率指引（如预期）。AMD目前预计2021财年收入增长60%（之前为50%），毛利率为48%（之前为47%）。假设收入增长60%，AMD目前预计全年收入为$15.6 B（之前为$14.6 B），因此AMD的新指导评级为$1.0 B的额外收入，这些收入迄今为止尚未计入AMD的市值。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e5c3c579e4a6472ae2c495a325b9a2b\" tg-width=\"1038\" tg-height=\"572\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source:AMD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：AMD）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AMD’s higher gross margins and sales guidance create a potent force for the firm’s stock to revalue higher. Because of the recent dip in AMD’s shares and the addition of $1.0B in revenues, AMD’s dollar sales growth has become even cheaper after earnings. AMD’s dollar sales growth is valued lower than Nvidia’s and AMD is growing potentially at a faster rate: AMD's revenue guidance calls for 60% Y/Y growth and estimates for Nvidia imply \"only\" 49% Y/Y revenue growth for FY 2021. AMD has a market-capitalization-to-earnings ratio of 42.5 which is low for a firm that grows revenues 60% and that has a gross margin closing in on 50%.</p><p><blockquote>AMD较高的毛利率和销售指引为该公司股票升值创造了强大的力量。由于AMD股价最近下跌以及收入增加了$1.0 B，AMD的美元销售额增长在盈利后变得更加便宜。AMD的美元销售额增长低于Nvidia，而且AMD的增长速度可能更快：AMD的收入指导评级为同比增长60%，对Nvidia的预测意味着2021财年“仅”同比增长49%。AMD的市值与市盈率为42.5，对于一家收入增长60%、毛利率接近50%的公司来说，这是很低的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/653c9dd9d37a4abd742703bd87dd3534\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"312\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr></tr>  </tbody> </table> Nvidia’s P-E ratio based on an FY 2022 EPS of $17.29 is 44.5. If AMD earnings growth (FY 2022 EPS of $2.71) was valued the same as Nvidia’s, AMD’s fair price would be $120 ($2.71 x 44.5 earnings multiplier factor), indicating 17% upside.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table>基于2022财年每股收益17.29美元，Nvidia的市盈率为44.5。如果AMD的盈利增长（2022财年每股收益为2.71美元）与Nvidia的估值相同，AMD的公平价格将为120美元（2.71美元x 44.5盈利乘数系数），表明上涨空间为17%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Challenges to my price target</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我的价格目标面临的挑战</b></blockquote></p><p> The biggest opportunities and the biggest risks for AMD are tied to gross margins. AMD is having a year of strong revenue acceleration and margin growth, which is the chief reason why I believe AMD can revalue higher. But gross margins can't grow 3-4 PP every quarter. If AMD's gross margin expansion slows, or worse, gross margins drop back to 40%, decreasing stock returns for AMD are likely. A reversal in the gross margin trend would change my opinion on AMD and put my $120 stock price target in jeopardy.</p><p><blockquote>AMD最大的机遇和最大的风险都与毛利率有关。AMD今年的收入加速和利润率增长强劲，这是我相信AMD可以重估更高的主要原因。但毛利率不可能每个季度增长3-4个PP。如果AMD的毛利率扩张放缓，或者更糟的是，毛利率回落至40%，AMD的股票回报可能会下降。毛利率趋势的逆转将改变我对AMD的看法，并使我120美元的股价目标面临危险。</blockquote></p><p> Softening ASPs for CPUs and graphic chips are likely going to be the canary in the coal mine and could indicate weakening end markets for AMD ahead of time. Softer end markets imply AMD's revenue growth will slow which could result in a lower earnings multiplier factor by which AMD's profits are valued. I don't believe AMD is overvalued based on earnings, but the market may disagree with my assessment at any time.</p><p><blockquote>CPU和图形芯片的平均售价疲软可能会成为煤矿中的金丝雀，并可能预示着AMD终端市场的提前疲软。终端市场疲软意味着AMD的收入增长将放缓，这可能会导致AMD利润估值的盈利乘数降低。我不认为AMD基于盈利被高估，但市场随时可能不同意我的评估。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> AMD reported impressive revenue growth and gross margins for Q2. AMD's raised guidance and Q/Q revenue acceleration indicate that end markets for CPUs and GPUs are a lot stronger than expected. This could lead to another year of revenue acceleration and a continual expansion of AMD’s gross margin to 50%, supported by rising ASPs. AMD's risk profile is still heavily skewed to the upside.</p><p><blockquote>AMD报告第二季度收入增长和毛利率令人印象深刻。AMD上调指引和环比收入加速表明CPU和GPU的终端市场远强于预期。在平均售价上升的支持下，这可能会导致又一年的收入加速增长，AMD的毛利率持续扩大至50%。AMD的风险状况仍然严重偏向上行。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442955-amd-still-growing-still-undervalued\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442955-amd-still-growing-still-undervalued","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135561812","content_text":"Summary\n\nAMD's margin gains are driven by growing strength in end markets.\nAMD raised its revenue guidance by $1.0B for FY 2021 and gross margins are edging closer to 50%.\nThe semiconductor firm could be a $6.0B free cash flow business next year, even if growth slows down.\nAMD's dollar sales growth is cheaper than Nvidia's and AMD might even grow faster.\n\nJay_Zynism/iStock via Getty Images\nAMD (AMD) made a splash yesterday after the semiconductor company reported growth and margins that were even better than what was expected. AMD’s revenue acceleration and strong gross margin expansion make a strong case for upside in the stock.\nWhy AMD is worth $120\nBefore I dive into AMD’s latestresults, let’s quickly recap what the firm’s guidance was for the last quarter. For Q2’21, AMD expected a minimum of $3.5B in revenues with “high case” guidance implying 7% revenue growth Q/Q and a gross margin of 47%.\nI expected AMD’s revenues to hit the high end of guidance ($3.7B), to have a minimum free cash flow of $895M (8% Q/Q growth) and a free cash flow margin of 24%. Given the acceleration of sales in higher-priced Ryzen desktop and notebook processors and GPUs as well as higher average selling prices/ASPs driven by broad-based strength in end markets, I expected AMD to beat its own margin guidance and report a gross margin of 48% for Q2’21. I also predicted a refreshment of AMD’s gross margin guidance due to strength in CPU and GPU ASPs. I laid out my forecast for AMD’s Q2’21 earnings in detail inAMD: On The Road To $5 Billion In Annual Free Cash Flow.\nTurning to AMD’s actual results, the semiconductor firm proved once more that it is firing on all cylinders. AMD’s Q2’21 revenues were $3,850M, $150M above the high-end of guidance and up 12% Q/Q, with revenue momentum continuing in both Graphics/Computing and Enterprise markets. Graphics/Computing revenues increased 7% Q/Q to $2,250M because of higher client and graphic processor sales as well as strengthening ASPs. Enterprise, which has become the driver of AMD’s sales growth in recent quarters, saw Q2'21 revenues of $1.6B, up 19% Q/Q. Enterprise revenues continued to accelerate in Q2'21, after AMD recorded 5% Q/Q revenue growth in Q1'21.\n(Source:AMD)\nThe most interesting revelation of AMD’s Q2’21 earnings, however, was the trend in gross margins. AMD's gross margin jumped 4 PP to 48%, 1 PP above guidance because of a better mix of higher-priced Ryzen processors (both mobile and desktop) and Radeon graphic cards. The uptick in gross margins in Q2’21 marked the third straight quarter of margin expansion for AMD and I don’t believe AMD has seen the end of this trend yet.\n(Source:AMD)\nTurning to cash flow.\nAMD reported cash flow from operating activities of $952M and free cash flow of $888M, $7M short of my expectation, but still almost six times more than a year ago. As AMD continues to see strong revenue growth tailwinds in both Computing/Graphics and Enterprise end markets, I believe AMD could grow its free cash flow margin to 30% by the end of next year. AMD raised its revenue guidance for FY 2021 (discussed later) by $1.0B which means I am also refreshing my free cash flow expectations for this year and next year.\nAMD expects to have revenues of $15.6B this year. Assuming a stable free cash flow margin of 23-24%, AMD is looking at free cash flow of $3.6B to $3.7B. Revenue estimates for next year are not refreshed yet, but AMD should have revenues of at least $20B in FY 2022 (assuming 25% Y/Y growth), implying free cash flow of $4.6B to $4.8B next year… and these estimates do not account for the possibility that AMD’s 3rd-gen EPYC Milan-powered server processors and higher-priced GPUs improve AMD’s free cash flow margin. A 30% free cash flow margin next year implies a free cash flow of $6.0B.\n(Source: Author)\n\n\n\n\n\nAMD is guiding for $4.1B in revenues +/- $100 million and the firm refreshed its FY 2021 revenue and gross margin guidance (as predicted). AMD now expects 60% revenue growth for FY 2021 (before 50%) and a gross margin of 48% (before 47%). Assuming 60% revenue growth, AMD is now looking at full year revenues of $15.6B (before $14.6B), so AMD's new guidance calls for $1.0B in additional revenues that were so far not priced into AMD’s market value.\n(Source:AMD)\nAMD’s higher gross margins and sales guidance create a potent force for the firm’s stock to revalue higher. Because of the recent dip in AMD’s shares and the addition of $1.0B in revenues, AMD’s dollar sales growth has become even cheaper after earnings. AMD’s dollar sales growth is valued lower than Nvidia’s and AMD is growing potentially at a faster rate: AMD's revenue guidance calls for 60% Y/Y growth and estimates for Nvidia imply \"only\" 49% Y/Y revenue growth for FY 2021. AMD has a market-capitalization-to-earnings ratio of 42.5 which is low for a firm that grows revenues 60% and that has a gross margin closing in on 50%.\n(Source: Author)\n\n\n\n\n\nNvidia’s P-E ratio based on an FY 2022 EPS of $17.29 is 44.5. If AMD earnings growth (FY 2022 EPS of $2.71) was valued the same as Nvidia’s, AMD’s fair price would be $120 ($2.71 x 44.5 earnings multiplier factor), indicating 17% upside.\nChallenges to my price target\nThe biggest opportunities and the biggest risks for AMD are tied to gross margins. AMD is having a year of strong revenue acceleration and margin growth, which is the chief reason why I believe AMD can revalue higher. But gross margins can't grow 3-4 PP every quarter. If AMD's gross margin expansion slows, or worse, gross margins drop back to 40%, decreasing stock returns for AMD are likely. A reversal in the gross margin trend would change my opinion on AMD and put my $120 stock price target in jeopardy.\nSoftening ASPs for CPUs and graphic chips are likely going to be the canary in the coal mine and could indicate weakening end markets for AMD ahead of time. Softer end markets imply AMD's revenue growth will slow which could result in a lower earnings multiplier factor by which AMD's profits are valued. I don't believe AMD is overvalued based on earnings, but the market may disagree with my assessment at any time.\nFinal thoughts\nAMD reported impressive revenue growth and gross margins for Q2. AMD's raised guidance and Q/Q revenue acceleration indicate that end markets for CPUs and GPUs are a lot stronger than expected. This could lead to another year of revenue acceleration and a continual expansion of AMD’s gross margin to 50%, supported by rising ASPs. AMD's risk profile is still heavily skewed to the upside.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":620,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":803730223,"gmtCreate":1627462360062,"gmtModify":1631890206902,"author":{"id":"3576491127300046","authorId":"3576491127300046","name":"Johnjohnn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4915eff6e74b30b32df99de166e08340","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576491127300046","authorIdStr":"3576491127300046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Anyone own this? Hold or sell?","listText":"Anyone own this? Hold or sell?","text":"Anyone own this? Hold or sell?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d406aea6bae94a0d2cb4b67dc0145d1","width":"1125","height":"2670"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/803730223","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":429,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":175254591,"gmtCreate":1627037361113,"gmtModify":1631884833837,"author":{"id":"3576491127300046","authorId":"3576491127300046","name":"Johnjohnn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4915eff6e74b30b32df99de166e08340","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576491127300046","authorIdStr":"3576491127300046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOFI\">$SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$</a>Drop more pls!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOFI\">$SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$</a>Drop more pls!","text":"$SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$Drop more pls!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf2a701593d6da6cd95a41a1535cb898","width":"1170","height":"2026"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/175254591","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":635,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":178758399,"gmtCreate":1626840165811,"gmtModify":1631888511839,"author":{"id":"3576491127300046","authorId":"3576491127300046","name":"Johnjohnn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4915eff6e74b30b32df99de166e08340","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576491127300046","authorIdStr":"3576491127300046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AREC\">$American Resources Corporation(AREC)$</a>Come on","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AREC\">$American Resources Corporation(AREC)$</a>Come on","text":"$American Resources Corporation(AREC)$Come on","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3bcd2e8bd034270ed1a41f3f37ff718","width":"1170","height":"2026"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/178758399","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":422,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173221850,"gmtCreate":1626663588770,"gmtModify":1631886286981,"author":{"id":"3576491127300046","authorId":"3576491127300046","name":"Johnjohnn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4915eff6e74b30b32df99de166e08340","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576491127300046","authorIdStr":"3576491127300046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MP\">$MP Materials Corp.(MP)$</a>Hope it improves!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MP\">$MP Materials Corp.(MP)$</a>Hope it improves!","text":"$MP Materials Corp.(MP)$Hope it improves!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07870c203b33d11b866265d8419848b8","width":"1170","height":"2026"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/173221850","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":406,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173223156,"gmtCreate":1626663507675,"gmtModify":1631885593619,"author":{"id":"3576491127300046","authorId":"3576491127300046","name":"Johnjohnn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4915eff6e74b30b32df99de166e08340","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576491127300046","authorIdStr":"3576491127300046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C6L.SI\">$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$</a>Sad","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C6L.SI\">$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$</a>Sad","text":"$SINGAPORE AIRLINES 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for JD?","listText":"Good for JD?","text":"Good for JD?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/147039417","repostId":"2151546663","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":345,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":145240996,"gmtCreate":1626227082615,"gmtModify":1631888511845,"author":{"id":"3576491127300046","authorId":"3576491127300046","name":"Johnjohnn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4915eff6e74b30b32df99de166e08340","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576491127300046","authorIdStr":"3576491127300046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AREC\">$American Resources Corporation(AREC)$</a>How","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AREC\">$American Resources Corporation(AREC)$</a>How","text":"$American Resources Corporation(AREC)$How","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53640fd7bec01ace9934e643260dc493","width":"1170","height":"2026"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/145240996","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":358,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":147122938,"gmtCreate":1626343344324,"gmtModify":1631890206899,"author":{"id":"3576491127300046","authorId":"3576491127300046","name":"Johnjohnn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4915eff6e74b30b32df99de166e08340","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576491127300046","idStr":"3576491127300046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Shag","listText":"Shag","text":"Shag","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/147122938","repostId":"2151523188","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":566,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":806866844,"gmtCreate":1627649847688,"gmtModify":1631890206900,"author":{"id":"3576491127300046","authorId":"3576491127300046","name":"Johnjohnn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4915eff6e74b30b32df99de166e08340","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576491127300046","idStr":"3576491127300046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great!","listText":"Great!","text":"Great!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/806866844","repostId":"1135561812","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135561812","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627637430,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1135561812?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-30 17:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMD: Still Growing, Still Undervalued<blockquote>AMD：仍在增长，仍被低估</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135561812","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"AMD's margin gains are driven by growing strength in end markets.AMD raised its revenue guidance by $1.0B for FY 2021 and gross margins are edging closer to 50%.AMD's dollar sales growth is cheaper than Nvidia's and AMD might even grow faster.The most interesting revelation of AMD’s Q2’21 earnings, however, was the trend in gross margins. AMD's gross margin jumped 4 PP to 48%, 1 PP above guidance because of a better mix of higher-priced Ryzen processors  and Radeon graphic cards. The uptick in g","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>AMD's margin gains are driven by growing strength in end markets.</li>  <li>AMD raised its revenue guidance by $1.0B for FY 2021 and gross margins are edging closer to 50%.</li>  <li>The semiconductor firm could be a $6.0B free cash flow business next year, even if growth slows down.</li>  <li>AMD's dollar sales growth is cheaper than Nvidia's and AMD might even grow faster.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e6e179318de667e33987f1b4a2afb27\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Jay_Zynism/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>AMD的利润率增长是由终端市场实力的增强推动的。</li><li>AMD将2021财年的收入指引上调了$1.0 B，毛利率接近50%。</li><li>即使增长放缓，这家半导体公司明年的自由现金流也可能达到$6.0 B。</li><li>AMD的美元销售额增长比Nvidia便宜，而且AMD的增长速度甚至可能更快。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Jay_Zynism/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AMD (AMD) made a splash yesterday after the semiconductor company reported growth and margins that were even better than what was expected. AMD’s revenue acceleration and strong gross margin expansion make a strong case for upside in the stock.</p><p><blockquote>AMD(AMD)昨天引起了轰动，此前这家半导体公司公布的增长和利润率甚至好于预期。AMD的收入加速和毛利率强劲扩张为该股的上涨提供了强有力的理由。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why AMD is worth $120</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么AMD值120美元</b></blockquote></p><p> Before I dive into AMD’s latestresults, let’s quickly recap what the firm’s guidance was for the last quarter. For Q2’21, AMD expected a minimum of $3.5B in revenues with “high case” guidance implying 7% revenue growth Q/Q and a gross margin of 47%.</p><p><blockquote>在我深入了解AMD的最新业绩之前，让我们快速回顾一下该公司上季度的指引。对于21年第二季度，AMD预计收入至少为$3.5 B，“高案例”指导意味着收入环比增长7%，毛利率为47%。</blockquote></p><p> I expected AMD’s revenues to hit the high end of guidance ($3.7B), to have a minimum free cash flow of $895M (8% Q/Q growth) and a free cash flow margin of 24%. Given the acceleration of sales in higher-priced Ryzen desktop and notebook processors and GPUs as well as higher average selling prices/ASPs driven by broad-based strength in end markets, I expected AMD to beat its own margin guidance and report a gross margin of 48% for Q2’21. I also predicted a refreshment of AMD’s gross margin guidance due to strength in CPU and GPU ASPs. I laid out my forecast for AMD’s Q2’21 earnings in detail inAMD: On The Road To $5 Billion In Annual Free Cash Flow.</p><p><blockquote>我预计AMD的收入将达到指导上限（$3.7 B），最低自由现金流为8.95亿美元（环比增长8%），自由现金流利润率为24%。鉴于价格较高的锐龙台式机和笔记本处理器和GPU的销售加速，以及终端市场广泛实力推动的平均售价/ASP上升，我预计AMD将超出自己的利润率指导，并报告毛利率21年第二季度为48%。我还预测，由于CPU和GPU平均售价的强劲，AMD的毛利率指引将会更新。我在《AMD：迈向50亿美元的年度自由现金流》中详细阐述了对AMD 21年第二季度收益的预测。</blockquote></p><p> Turning to AMD’s actual results, the semiconductor firm proved once more that it is firing on all cylinders. AMD’s Q2’21 revenues were $3,850M, $150M above the high-end of guidance and up 12% Q/Q, with revenue momentum continuing in both Graphics/Computing and Enterprise markets. Graphics/Computing revenues increased 7% Q/Q to $2,250M because of higher client and graphic processor sales as well as strengthening ASPs. Enterprise, which has become the driver of AMD’s sales growth in recent quarters, saw Q2'21 revenues of $1.6B, up 19% Q/Q. Enterprise revenues continued to accelerate in Q2'21, after AMD recorded 5% Q/Q revenue growth in Q1'21.</p><p><blockquote>谈到AMD的实际业绩，这家半导体公司再次证明了它正在全力以赴。AMD 21年第二季度的收入为38.5亿美元，比指导上限高出1.5亿美元，环比增长12%，图形/计算和企业市场的收入势头仍在继续。由于客户端和图形处理器销售额的增加以及平均售价的提高，图形/计算收入环比增长7%，达到22.5亿美元。企业业务已成为AMD近几个季度销售增长的驱动力，21年第二季度收入为$1.6 B，环比增长19%。继AMD在21年第一季度录得5%的季度收入增长后，企业收入在21年第二季度继续加速。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ec3e9d1f0b7d59915f9db8790725803\" tg-width=\"1039\" tg-height=\"587\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source:AMD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：AMD）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The most interesting revelation of AMD’s Q2’21 earnings, however, was the trend in gross margins. AMD's gross margin jumped 4 PP to 48%, 1 PP above guidance because of a better mix of higher-priced Ryzen processors (both mobile and desktop) and Radeon graphic cards. The uptick in gross margins in Q2’21 marked the third straight quarter of margin expansion for AMD and I don’t believe AMD has seen the end of this trend yet.</p><p><blockquote>然而，AMD 21年第二季度收益中最有趣的启示是毛利率的趋势。AMD的毛利率跃升4个百分点至48%，比指导值高出1个百分点，原因是价格较高的锐龙处理器（移动和桌面）和镭龙显卡的更好组合。21年第二季度毛利率的上升标志着AMD利润率连续第三个季度扩张，我认为AMD还没有看到这一趋势的结束。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dca6426ffa1332827a6774554d499c36\" tg-width=\"1048\" tg-height=\"566\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source:AMD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：AMD）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Turning to cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>转向现金流。</blockquote></p><p> AMD reported cash flow from operating activities of $952M and free cash flow of $888M, $7M short of my expectation, but still almost six times more than a year ago. As AMD continues to see strong revenue growth tailwinds in both Computing/Graphics and Enterprise end markets, I believe AMD could grow its free cash flow margin to 30% by the end of next year. AMD raised its revenue guidance for FY 2021 (discussed later) by $1.0B which means I am also refreshing my free cash flow expectations for this year and next year.</p><p><blockquote>AMD报告的经营活动现金流为9.52亿美元，自由现金流为8.88亿美元，比我的预期低700万美元，但仍是一年前的近六倍。随着AMD在计算/图形和企业终端市场继续看到强劲的收入增长，我相信AMD可以在明年年底前将其自由现金流利润率提高到30%。AMD将2021财年的收入指引（稍后讨论）提高了$1.0 B，这意味着我也刷新了今年和明年的自由现金流预期。</blockquote></p><p> AMD expects to have revenues of $15.6B this year. Assuming a stable free cash flow margin of 23-24%, AMD is looking at free cash flow of $3.6B to $3.7B. Revenue estimates for next year are not refreshed yet, but AMD should have revenues of at least $20B in FY 2022 (assuming 25% Y/Y growth), implying free cash flow of $4.6B to $4.8B next year… and these estimates do not account for the possibility that AMD’s 3rd-gen EPYC Milan-powered server processors and higher-priced GPUs improve AMD’s free cash flow margin. A 30% free cash flow margin next year implies a free cash flow of $6.0B.</p><p><blockquote>AMD预计今年的收入为$15.6 B。假设稳定的自由现金流利润率为23-24%，AMD预计自由现金流为$3.6 B至$3.7 B。明年的收入预期尚未更新，但AMD在2022财年的收入应至少为$20B（假设同比增长25%），这意味着明年的自由现金流为$4.6 B至$4.8 B……而这些预期并未考虑AMD第三代EPYC Milan驱动的服务器处理器和价格更高的GPU提高AMD自由现金流利润率的可能性。明年30%的自由现金流利润率意味着自由现金流为$6.0 B。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ea23b7429f2edd8ce6dda945a88daa7\" tg-width=\"819\" tg-height=\"593\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr></tr>  </tbody> </table> AMD is guiding for $4.1B in revenues +/- $100 million and the firm refreshed its FY 2021 revenue and gross margin guidance (as predicted). AMD now expects 60% revenue growth for FY 2021 (before 50%) and a gross margin of 48% (before 47%). Assuming 60% revenue growth, AMD is now looking at full year revenues of $15.6B (before $14.6B), so AMD's new guidance calls for $1.0B in additional revenues that were so far not priced into AMD’s market value.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table>AMD预计收入为41亿美元+/-1亿美元，该公司更新了2021财年收入和毛利率指引（如预期）。AMD目前预计2021财年收入增长60%（之前为50%），毛利率为48%（之前为47%）。假设收入增长60%，AMD目前预计全年收入为$15.6 B（之前为$14.6 B），因此AMD的新指导评级为$1.0 B的额外收入，这些收入迄今为止尚未计入AMD的市值。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e5c3c579e4a6472ae2c495a325b9a2b\" tg-width=\"1038\" tg-height=\"572\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source:AMD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：AMD）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AMD’s higher gross margins and sales guidance create a potent force for the firm’s stock to revalue higher. Because of the recent dip in AMD’s shares and the addition of $1.0B in revenues, AMD’s dollar sales growth has become even cheaper after earnings. AMD’s dollar sales growth is valued lower than Nvidia’s and AMD is growing potentially at a faster rate: AMD's revenue guidance calls for 60% Y/Y growth and estimates for Nvidia imply \"only\" 49% Y/Y revenue growth for FY 2021. AMD has a market-capitalization-to-earnings ratio of 42.5 which is low for a firm that grows revenues 60% and that has a gross margin closing in on 50%.</p><p><blockquote>AMD较高的毛利率和销售指引为该公司股票升值创造了强大的力量。由于AMD股价最近下跌以及收入增加了$1.0 B，AMD的美元销售额增长在盈利后变得更加便宜。AMD的美元销售额增长低于Nvidia，而且AMD的增长速度可能更快：AMD的收入指导评级为同比增长60%，对Nvidia的预测意味着2021财年“仅”同比增长49%。AMD的市值与市盈率为42.5，对于一家收入增长60%、毛利率接近50%的公司来说，这是很低的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/653c9dd9d37a4abd742703bd87dd3534\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"312\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr></tr>  </tbody> </table> Nvidia’s P-E ratio based on an FY 2022 EPS of $17.29 is 44.5. If AMD earnings growth (FY 2022 EPS of $2.71) was valued the same as Nvidia’s, AMD’s fair price would be $120 ($2.71 x 44.5 earnings multiplier factor), indicating 17% upside.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table>基于2022财年每股收益17.29美元，Nvidia的市盈率为44.5。如果AMD的盈利增长（2022财年每股收益为2.71美元）与Nvidia的估值相同，AMD的公平价格将为120美元（2.71美元x 44.5盈利乘数系数），表明上涨空间为17%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Challenges to my price target</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我的价格目标面临的挑战</b></blockquote></p><p> The biggest opportunities and the biggest risks for AMD are tied to gross margins. AMD is having a year of strong revenue acceleration and margin growth, which is the chief reason why I believe AMD can revalue higher. But gross margins can't grow 3-4 PP every quarter. If AMD's gross margin expansion slows, or worse, gross margins drop back to 40%, decreasing stock returns for AMD are likely. A reversal in the gross margin trend would change my opinion on AMD and put my $120 stock price target in jeopardy.</p><p><blockquote>AMD最大的机遇和最大的风险都与毛利率有关。AMD今年的收入加速和利润率增长强劲，这是我相信AMD可以重估更高的主要原因。但毛利率不可能每个季度增长3-4个PP。如果AMD的毛利率扩张放缓，或者更糟的是，毛利率回落至40%，AMD的股票回报可能会下降。毛利率趋势的逆转将改变我对AMD的看法，并使我120美元的股价目标面临危险。</blockquote></p><p> Softening ASPs for CPUs and graphic chips are likely going to be the canary in the coal mine and could indicate weakening end markets for AMD ahead of time. Softer end markets imply AMD's revenue growth will slow which could result in a lower earnings multiplier factor by which AMD's profits are valued. I don't believe AMD is overvalued based on earnings, but the market may disagree with my assessment at any time.</p><p><blockquote>CPU和图形芯片的平均售价疲软可能会成为煤矿中的金丝雀，并可能预示着AMD终端市场的提前疲软。终端市场疲软意味着AMD的收入增长将放缓，这可能会导致AMD利润估值的盈利乘数降低。我不认为AMD基于盈利被高估，但市场随时可能不同意我的评估。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> AMD reported impressive revenue growth and gross margins for Q2. AMD's raised guidance and Q/Q revenue acceleration indicate that end markets for CPUs and GPUs are a lot stronger than expected. This could lead to another year of revenue acceleration and a continual expansion of AMD’s gross margin to 50%, supported by rising ASPs. AMD's risk profile is still heavily skewed to the upside.</p><p><blockquote>AMD报告第二季度收入增长和毛利率令人印象深刻。AMD上调指引和环比收入加速表明CPU和GPU的终端市场远强于预期。在平均售价上升的支持下，这可能会导致又一年的收入加速增长，AMD的毛利率持续扩大至50%。AMD的风险状况仍然严重偏向上行。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD: Still Growing, Still Undervalued<blockquote>AMD：仍在增长，仍被低估</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD: Still Growing, Still Undervalued<blockquote>AMD：仍在增长，仍被低估</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-30 17:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>AMD's margin gains are driven by growing strength in end markets.</li>  <li>AMD raised its revenue guidance by $1.0B for FY 2021 and gross margins are edging closer to 50%.</li>  <li>The semiconductor firm could be a $6.0B free cash flow business next year, even if growth slows down.</li>  <li>AMD's dollar sales growth is cheaper than Nvidia's and AMD might even grow faster.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e6e179318de667e33987f1b4a2afb27\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Jay_Zynism/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>AMD的利润率增长是由终端市场实力的增强推动的。</li><li>AMD将2021财年的收入指引上调了$1.0 B，毛利率接近50%。</li><li>即使增长放缓，这家半导体公司明年的自由现金流也可能达到$6.0 B。</li><li>AMD的美元销售额增长比Nvidia便宜，而且AMD的增长速度甚至可能更快。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Jay_Zynism/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AMD (AMD) made a splash yesterday after the semiconductor company reported growth and margins that were even better than what was expected. AMD’s revenue acceleration and strong gross margin expansion make a strong case for upside in the stock.</p><p><blockquote>AMD(AMD)昨天引起了轰动，此前这家半导体公司公布的增长和利润率甚至好于预期。AMD的收入加速和毛利率强劲扩张为该股的上涨提供了强有力的理由。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why AMD is worth $120</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么AMD值120美元</b></blockquote></p><p> Before I dive into AMD’s latestresults, let’s quickly recap what the firm’s guidance was for the last quarter. For Q2’21, AMD expected a minimum of $3.5B in revenues with “high case” guidance implying 7% revenue growth Q/Q and a gross margin of 47%.</p><p><blockquote>在我深入了解AMD的最新业绩之前，让我们快速回顾一下该公司上季度的指引。对于21年第二季度，AMD预计收入至少为$3.5 B，“高案例”指导意味着收入环比增长7%，毛利率为47%。</blockquote></p><p> I expected AMD’s revenues to hit the high end of guidance ($3.7B), to have a minimum free cash flow of $895M (8% Q/Q growth) and a free cash flow margin of 24%. Given the acceleration of sales in higher-priced Ryzen desktop and notebook processors and GPUs as well as higher average selling prices/ASPs driven by broad-based strength in end markets, I expected AMD to beat its own margin guidance and report a gross margin of 48% for Q2’21. I also predicted a refreshment of AMD’s gross margin guidance due to strength in CPU and GPU ASPs. I laid out my forecast for AMD’s Q2’21 earnings in detail inAMD: On The Road To $5 Billion In Annual Free Cash Flow.</p><p><blockquote>我预计AMD的收入将达到指导上限（$3.7 B），最低自由现金流为8.95亿美元（环比增长8%），自由现金流利润率为24%。鉴于价格较高的锐龙台式机和笔记本处理器和GPU的销售加速，以及终端市场广泛实力推动的平均售价/ASP上升，我预计AMD将超出自己的利润率指导，并报告毛利率21年第二季度为48%。我还预测，由于CPU和GPU平均售价的强劲，AMD的毛利率指引将会更新。我在《AMD：迈向50亿美元的年度自由现金流》中详细阐述了对AMD 21年第二季度收益的预测。</blockquote></p><p> Turning to AMD’s actual results, the semiconductor firm proved once more that it is firing on all cylinders. AMD’s Q2’21 revenues were $3,850M, $150M above the high-end of guidance and up 12% Q/Q, with revenue momentum continuing in both Graphics/Computing and Enterprise markets. Graphics/Computing revenues increased 7% Q/Q to $2,250M because of higher client and graphic processor sales as well as strengthening ASPs. Enterprise, which has become the driver of AMD’s sales growth in recent quarters, saw Q2'21 revenues of $1.6B, up 19% Q/Q. Enterprise revenues continued to accelerate in Q2'21, after AMD recorded 5% Q/Q revenue growth in Q1'21.</p><p><blockquote>谈到AMD的实际业绩，这家半导体公司再次证明了它正在全力以赴。AMD 21年第二季度的收入为38.5亿美元，比指导上限高出1.5亿美元，环比增长12%，图形/计算和企业市场的收入势头仍在继续。由于客户端和图形处理器销售额的增加以及平均售价的提高，图形/计算收入环比增长7%，达到22.5亿美元。企业业务已成为AMD近几个季度销售增长的驱动力，21年第二季度收入为$1.6 B，环比增长19%。继AMD在21年第一季度录得5%的季度收入增长后，企业收入在21年第二季度继续加速。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ec3e9d1f0b7d59915f9db8790725803\" tg-width=\"1039\" tg-height=\"587\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source:AMD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：AMD）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The most interesting revelation of AMD’s Q2’21 earnings, however, was the trend in gross margins. AMD's gross margin jumped 4 PP to 48%, 1 PP above guidance because of a better mix of higher-priced Ryzen processors (both mobile and desktop) and Radeon graphic cards. The uptick in gross margins in Q2’21 marked the third straight quarter of margin expansion for AMD and I don’t believe AMD has seen the end of this trend yet.</p><p><blockquote>然而，AMD 21年第二季度收益中最有趣的启示是毛利率的趋势。AMD的毛利率跃升4个百分点至48%，比指导值高出1个百分点，原因是价格较高的锐龙处理器（移动和桌面）和镭龙显卡的更好组合。21年第二季度毛利率的上升标志着AMD利润率连续第三个季度扩张，我认为AMD还没有看到这一趋势的结束。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dca6426ffa1332827a6774554d499c36\" tg-width=\"1048\" tg-height=\"566\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source:AMD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：AMD）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Turning to cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>转向现金流。</blockquote></p><p> AMD reported cash flow from operating activities of $952M and free cash flow of $888M, $7M short of my expectation, but still almost six times more than a year ago. As AMD continues to see strong revenue growth tailwinds in both Computing/Graphics and Enterprise end markets, I believe AMD could grow its free cash flow margin to 30% by the end of next year. AMD raised its revenue guidance for FY 2021 (discussed later) by $1.0B which means I am also refreshing my free cash flow expectations for this year and next year.</p><p><blockquote>AMD报告的经营活动现金流为9.52亿美元，自由现金流为8.88亿美元，比我的预期低700万美元，但仍是一年前的近六倍。随着AMD在计算/图形和企业终端市场继续看到强劲的收入增长，我相信AMD可以在明年年底前将其自由现金流利润率提高到30%。AMD将2021财年的收入指引（稍后讨论）提高了$1.0 B，这意味着我也刷新了今年和明年的自由现金流预期。</blockquote></p><p> AMD expects to have revenues of $15.6B this year. Assuming a stable free cash flow margin of 23-24%, AMD is looking at free cash flow of $3.6B to $3.7B. Revenue estimates for next year are not refreshed yet, but AMD should have revenues of at least $20B in FY 2022 (assuming 25% Y/Y growth), implying free cash flow of $4.6B to $4.8B next year… and these estimates do not account for the possibility that AMD’s 3rd-gen EPYC Milan-powered server processors and higher-priced GPUs improve AMD’s free cash flow margin. A 30% free cash flow margin next year implies a free cash flow of $6.0B.</p><p><blockquote>AMD预计今年的收入为$15.6 B。假设稳定的自由现金流利润率为23-24%，AMD预计自由现金流为$3.6 B至$3.7 B。明年的收入预期尚未更新，但AMD在2022财年的收入应至少为$20B（假设同比增长25%），这意味着明年的自由现金流为$4.6 B至$4.8 B……而这些预期并未考虑AMD第三代EPYC Milan驱动的服务器处理器和价格更高的GPU提高AMD自由现金流利润率的可能性。明年30%的自由现金流利润率意味着自由现金流为$6.0 B。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ea23b7429f2edd8ce6dda945a88daa7\" tg-width=\"819\" tg-height=\"593\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr></tr>  </tbody> </table> AMD is guiding for $4.1B in revenues +/- $100 million and the firm refreshed its FY 2021 revenue and gross margin guidance (as predicted). AMD now expects 60% revenue growth for FY 2021 (before 50%) and a gross margin of 48% (before 47%). Assuming 60% revenue growth, AMD is now looking at full year revenues of $15.6B (before $14.6B), so AMD's new guidance calls for $1.0B in additional revenues that were so far not priced into AMD’s market value.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table>AMD预计收入为41亿美元+/-1亿美元，该公司更新了2021财年收入和毛利率指引（如预期）。AMD目前预计2021财年收入增长60%（之前为50%），毛利率为48%（之前为47%）。假设收入增长60%，AMD目前预计全年收入为$15.6 B（之前为$14.6 B），因此AMD的新指导评级为$1.0 B的额外收入，这些收入迄今为止尚未计入AMD的市值。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e5c3c579e4a6472ae2c495a325b9a2b\" tg-width=\"1038\" tg-height=\"572\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source:AMD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：AMD）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AMD’s higher gross margins and sales guidance create a potent force for the firm’s stock to revalue higher. Because of the recent dip in AMD’s shares and the addition of $1.0B in revenues, AMD’s dollar sales growth has become even cheaper after earnings. AMD’s dollar sales growth is valued lower than Nvidia’s and AMD is growing potentially at a faster rate: AMD's revenue guidance calls for 60% Y/Y growth and estimates for Nvidia imply \"only\" 49% Y/Y revenue growth for FY 2021. AMD has a market-capitalization-to-earnings ratio of 42.5 which is low for a firm that grows revenues 60% and that has a gross margin closing in on 50%.</p><p><blockquote>AMD较高的毛利率和销售指引为该公司股票升值创造了强大的力量。由于AMD股价最近下跌以及收入增加了$1.0 B，AMD的美元销售额增长在盈利后变得更加便宜。AMD的美元销售额增长低于Nvidia，而且AMD的增长速度可能更快：AMD的收入指导评级为同比增长60%，对Nvidia的预测意味着2021财年“仅”同比增长49%。AMD的市值与市盈率为42.5，对于一家收入增长60%、毛利率接近50%的公司来说，这是很低的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/653c9dd9d37a4abd742703bd87dd3534\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"312\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr></tr>  </tbody> </table> Nvidia’s P-E ratio based on an FY 2022 EPS of $17.29 is 44.5. If AMD earnings growth (FY 2022 EPS of $2.71) was valued the same as Nvidia’s, AMD’s fair price would be $120 ($2.71 x 44.5 earnings multiplier factor), indicating 17% upside.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table>基于2022财年每股收益17.29美元，Nvidia的市盈率为44.5。如果AMD的盈利增长（2022财年每股收益为2.71美元）与Nvidia的估值相同，AMD的公平价格将为120美元（2.71美元x 44.5盈利乘数系数），表明上涨空间为17%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Challenges to my price target</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我的价格目标面临的挑战</b></blockquote></p><p> The biggest opportunities and the biggest risks for AMD are tied to gross margins. AMD is having a year of strong revenue acceleration and margin growth, which is the chief reason why I believe AMD can revalue higher. But gross margins can't grow 3-4 PP every quarter. If AMD's gross margin expansion slows, or worse, gross margins drop back to 40%, decreasing stock returns for AMD are likely. A reversal in the gross margin trend would change my opinion on AMD and put my $120 stock price target in jeopardy.</p><p><blockquote>AMD最大的机遇和最大的风险都与毛利率有关。AMD今年的收入加速和利润率增长强劲，这是我相信AMD可以重估更高的主要原因。但毛利率不可能每个季度增长3-4个PP。如果AMD的毛利率扩张放缓，或者更糟的是，毛利率回落至40%，AMD的股票回报可能会下降。毛利率趋势的逆转将改变我对AMD的看法，并使我120美元的股价目标面临危险。</blockquote></p><p> Softening ASPs for CPUs and graphic chips are likely going to be the canary in the coal mine and could indicate weakening end markets for AMD ahead of time. Softer end markets imply AMD's revenue growth will slow which could result in a lower earnings multiplier factor by which AMD's profits are valued. I don't believe AMD is overvalued based on earnings, but the market may disagree with my assessment at any time.</p><p><blockquote>CPU和图形芯片的平均售价疲软可能会成为煤矿中的金丝雀，并可能预示着AMD终端市场的提前疲软。终端市场疲软意味着AMD的收入增长将放缓，这可能会导致AMD利润估值的盈利乘数降低。我不认为AMD基于盈利被高估，但市场随时可能不同意我的评估。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> AMD reported impressive revenue growth and gross margins for Q2. AMD's raised guidance and Q/Q revenue acceleration indicate that end markets for CPUs and GPUs are a lot stronger than expected. This could lead to another year of revenue acceleration and a continual expansion of AMD’s gross margin to 50%, supported by rising ASPs. AMD's risk profile is still heavily skewed to the upside.</p><p><blockquote>AMD报告第二季度收入增长和毛利率令人印象深刻。AMD上调指引和环比收入加速表明CPU和GPU的终端市场远强于预期。在平均售价上升的支持下，这可能会导致又一年的收入加速增长，AMD的毛利率持续扩大至50%。AMD的风险状况仍然严重偏向上行。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442955-amd-still-growing-still-undervalued\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442955-amd-still-growing-still-undervalued","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135561812","content_text":"Summary\n\nAMD's margin gains are driven by growing strength in end markets.\nAMD raised its revenue guidance by $1.0B for FY 2021 and gross margins are edging closer to 50%.\nThe semiconductor firm could be a $6.0B free cash flow business next year, even if growth slows down.\nAMD's dollar sales growth is cheaper than Nvidia's and AMD might even grow faster.\n\nJay_Zynism/iStock via Getty Images\nAMD (AMD) made a splash yesterday after the semiconductor company reported growth and margins that were even better than what was expected. AMD’s revenue acceleration and strong gross margin expansion make a strong case for upside in the stock.\nWhy AMD is worth $120\nBefore I dive into AMD’s latestresults, let’s quickly recap what the firm’s guidance was for the last quarter. For Q2’21, AMD expected a minimum of $3.5B in revenues with “high case” guidance implying 7% revenue growth Q/Q and a gross margin of 47%.\nI expected AMD’s revenues to hit the high end of guidance ($3.7B), to have a minimum free cash flow of $895M (8% Q/Q growth) and a free cash flow margin of 24%. Given the acceleration of sales in higher-priced Ryzen desktop and notebook processors and GPUs as well as higher average selling prices/ASPs driven by broad-based strength in end markets, I expected AMD to beat its own margin guidance and report a gross margin of 48% for Q2’21. I also predicted a refreshment of AMD’s gross margin guidance due to strength in CPU and GPU ASPs. I laid out my forecast for AMD’s Q2’21 earnings in detail inAMD: On The Road To $5 Billion In Annual Free Cash Flow.\nTurning to AMD’s actual results, the semiconductor firm proved once more that it is firing on all cylinders. AMD’s Q2’21 revenues were $3,850M, $150M above the high-end of guidance and up 12% Q/Q, with revenue momentum continuing in both Graphics/Computing and Enterprise markets. Graphics/Computing revenues increased 7% Q/Q to $2,250M because of higher client and graphic processor sales as well as strengthening ASPs. Enterprise, which has become the driver of AMD’s sales growth in recent quarters, saw Q2'21 revenues of $1.6B, up 19% Q/Q. Enterprise revenues continued to accelerate in Q2'21, after AMD recorded 5% Q/Q revenue growth in Q1'21.\n(Source:AMD)\nThe most interesting revelation of AMD’s Q2’21 earnings, however, was the trend in gross margins. AMD's gross margin jumped 4 PP to 48%, 1 PP above guidance because of a better mix of higher-priced Ryzen processors (both mobile and desktop) and Radeon graphic cards. The uptick in gross margins in Q2’21 marked the third straight quarter of margin expansion for AMD and I don’t believe AMD has seen the end of this trend yet.\n(Source:AMD)\nTurning to cash flow.\nAMD reported cash flow from operating activities of $952M and free cash flow of $888M, $7M short of my expectation, but still almost six times more than a year ago. As AMD continues to see strong revenue growth tailwinds in both Computing/Graphics and Enterprise end markets, I believe AMD could grow its free cash flow margin to 30% by the end of next year. AMD raised its revenue guidance for FY 2021 (discussed later) by $1.0B which means I am also refreshing my free cash flow expectations for this year and next year.\nAMD expects to have revenues of $15.6B this year. Assuming a stable free cash flow margin of 23-24%, AMD is looking at free cash flow of $3.6B to $3.7B. Revenue estimates for next year are not refreshed yet, but AMD should have revenues of at least $20B in FY 2022 (assuming 25% Y/Y growth), implying free cash flow of $4.6B to $4.8B next year… and these estimates do not account for the possibility that AMD’s 3rd-gen EPYC Milan-powered server processors and higher-priced GPUs improve AMD’s free cash flow margin. A 30% free cash flow margin next year implies a free cash flow of $6.0B.\n(Source: Author)\n\n\n\n\n\nAMD is guiding for $4.1B in revenues +/- $100 million and the firm refreshed its FY 2021 revenue and gross margin guidance (as predicted). AMD now expects 60% revenue growth for FY 2021 (before 50%) and a gross margin of 48% (before 47%). Assuming 60% revenue growth, AMD is now looking at full year revenues of $15.6B (before $14.6B), so AMD's new guidance calls for $1.0B in additional revenues that were so far not priced into AMD’s market value.\n(Source:AMD)\nAMD’s higher gross margins and sales guidance create a potent force for the firm’s stock to revalue higher. Because of the recent dip in AMD’s shares and the addition of $1.0B in revenues, AMD’s dollar sales growth has become even cheaper after earnings. AMD’s dollar sales growth is valued lower than Nvidia’s and AMD is growing potentially at a faster rate: AMD's revenue guidance calls for 60% Y/Y growth and estimates for Nvidia imply \"only\" 49% Y/Y revenue growth for FY 2021. AMD has a market-capitalization-to-earnings ratio of 42.5 which is low for a firm that grows revenues 60% and that has a gross margin closing in on 50%.\n(Source: Author)\n\n\n\n\n\nNvidia’s P-E ratio based on an FY 2022 EPS of $17.29 is 44.5. If AMD earnings growth (FY 2022 EPS of $2.71) was valued the same as Nvidia’s, AMD’s fair price would be $120 ($2.71 x 44.5 earnings multiplier factor), indicating 17% upside.\nChallenges to my price target\nThe biggest opportunities and the biggest risks for AMD are tied to gross margins. AMD is having a year of strong revenue acceleration and margin growth, which is the chief reason why I believe AMD can revalue higher. But gross margins can't grow 3-4 PP every quarter. If AMD's gross margin expansion slows, or worse, gross margins drop back to 40%, decreasing stock returns for AMD are likely. A reversal in the gross margin trend would change my opinion on AMD and put my $120 stock price target in jeopardy.\nSoftening ASPs for CPUs and graphic chips are likely going to be the canary in the coal mine and could indicate weakening end markets for AMD ahead of time. Softer end markets imply AMD's revenue growth will slow which could result in a lower earnings multiplier factor by which AMD's profits are valued. I don't believe AMD is overvalued based on earnings, but the market may disagree with my assessment at any time.\nFinal thoughts\nAMD reported impressive revenue growth and gross margins for Q2. AMD's raised guidance and Q/Q revenue acceleration indicate that end markets for CPUs and GPUs are a lot stronger than expected. This could lead to another year of revenue acceleration and a continual expansion of AMD’s gross margin to 50%, supported by rising ASPs. AMD's risk profile is still heavily skewed to the upside.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":620,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":149867952,"gmtCreate":1625715541876,"gmtModify":1631890206912,"author":{"id":"3576491127300046","authorId":"3576491127300046","name":"Johnjohnn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4915eff6e74b30b32df99de166e08340","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576491127300046","idStr":"3576491127300046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good?","listText":"Good?","text":"Good?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/149867952","repostId":"2149318561","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":437,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":157612265,"gmtCreate":1625580174357,"gmtModify":1631892700892,"author":{"id":"3576491127300046","authorId":"3576491127300046","name":"Johnjohnn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4915eff6e74b30b32df99de166e08340","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576491127300046","idStr":"3576491127300046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh my","listText":"Oh my","text":"Oh my","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/157612265","repostId":"1189769697","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1189769697","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625579734,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1189769697?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-06 21:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia Gains on Another Analyst Price-Target Boost<blockquote>英伟达因分析师再次上调目标价而上涨</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189769697","media":"Thestreet","summary":"Nvidia  shares gained on Tuesday after another Wall Street analyst lifted his price target to near $1,000 amid expectations of continued strong demand for video graphics cards and related semiconductors that are used for both gaming and mining cryptocurrencies.Keybanc analyst John Vinh lifted his one-year price target on Nvidia to $950 from $775, following in the footsteps of BMO Capital Markets analyst Ambrish Srivastava, who just last Thursdaylifted his own price target on the chip titanto a W","content":"<p>Nvidia&nbsp;(<b>NVDA</b>)&nbsp;shares gained on Tuesday after another Wall Street analyst lifted his price target to near $1,000 amid expectations of continued strong demand for video graphics cards and related semiconductors that are used for both gaming and mining cryptocurrencies.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达(<b>NVDA</b>）周二，另一位华尔街分析师将目标价上调至近1,000美元，原因是预计对用于游戏和挖掘加密货币的视频显卡和相关半导体的需求将持续强劲，股价上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Keybanc analyst John Vinh lifted his one-year price target on Nvidia to $950 from $775, following in the footsteps of BMO Capital Markets analyst Ambrish Srivastava, who just last Thursdaylifted his own price target on the chip titanto a Wall Street high of $1,000 from $975 and affirmed an outperform rating.</p><p><blockquote>Keybanc分析师John Vinh将Nvidia的一年目标价从775美元上调至950美元，紧随BMO资本市场分析师Ambrish Srivastava的脚步，后者上周四将芯片titanto的目标价从华尔街高点1,000美元上调至975美元，并确认跑赢大盘评级。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts have piled on the praise for Nvidia since the company’s first-quarter results,which came in better than expected&nbsp;amid strength in so-called hyperscale data center demand, which includes demand for its graphics cards and chips using for both gaming and crypto mining.</p><p><blockquote>自英伟达公布第一季度业绩以来，分析师对该公司赞不绝口，由于所谓的超大规模数据中心需求强劲，该公司的业绩好于预期，其中包括对用于游戏和加密货币挖矿的显卡和芯片的需求。</blockquote></p><p> Even before then, analysts were&nbsp;touting Nvidia’s performance&nbsp;amid strong demand for its gaming graphics cards, which surged through the pandemic and stay-at-home orders that boosted demand for at-home entertainment like video games, compounded by the ongoing chip shortage that has boosted demand - and prices -for the chips and the cards themselves.</p><p><blockquote>甚至在此之前，分析师就在对英伟达游戏显卡的强劲需求中吹捧英伟达的业绩，该显卡在大流行期间激增，而居家订单提振了对视频游戏等家庭娱乐的需求，而持续的芯片短缺又加剧了这种情况。增加了芯片和卡本身的需求和价格。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, surging prices for Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies this year also have fueled demand. Crypto miners use graphics processing units, or GPUs, to mine currencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. Nvidia’slatest RTX 30 series, launched last year, has proven particularly popular with miners.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，今年比特币、以太币和其他加密货币的价格飙升也刺激了需求。加密货币矿工使用图形处理单元（GPU）来挖掘比特币和以太币等货币。事实证明，英伟达去年推出的最新RTX 30系列特别受矿工欢迎。</blockquote></p><p> TheStreet's&nbsp;Jim Cramerin his&nbsp;Real Money&nbsp;column on Tuesdaynoted another reason to be bullish on Nvidia: a potential acquisition that will beef up its business even more.</p><p><blockquote>《华尔街日报》的吉姆·克莱默(Jim Cramerer)在周二的《真钱》专栏中指出了看好英伟达的另一个原因：一项潜在的收购将进一步增强其业务。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, Jim pointed to the increasing likelihood that regulators will allow the company to buy Arm Holdings, a British company that excels in cellphones and personal computers, which will add to its already strong sales pipeline that has been driven by far more than just demand from Ethereum miners.</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，吉姆指出，监管机构允许该公司收购Arm Holdings的可能性越来越大，Arm Holdings是一家擅长手机和个人电脑的英国公司，这将增加其本已强劲的销售渠道，而该渠道的推动因素不仅仅是来自以太币矿工的需求。</blockquote></p><p> \"I'm sure some of you might think that Nvidia is more of an Ethereum play, because its cards are used to mine the cryptocurrency,\" Cramer wrote. \"In reality, that's a tiny portion of their business and is made up of cards that aren't up to specification for gaming, scrap if you will.\"</p><p><blockquote>克莱默写道：“我相信你们中的一些人可能会认为英伟达更像是一家以太币公司，因为它的卡是用来挖掘加密货币的。”“事实上，这只是他们业务的一小部分，而且由不符合游戏规格的卡组成，如果你愿意的话，可以报废。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia Gains on Another Analyst Price-Target Boost<blockquote>英伟达因分析师再次上调目标价而上涨</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia Gains on Another Analyst Price-Target Boost<blockquote>英伟达因分析师再次上调目标价而上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Thestreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-06 21:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Nvidia&nbsp;(<b>NVDA</b>)&nbsp;shares gained on Tuesday after another Wall Street analyst lifted his price target to near $1,000 amid expectations of continued strong demand for video graphics cards and related semiconductors that are used for both gaming and mining cryptocurrencies.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达(<b>NVDA</b>）周二，另一位华尔街分析师将目标价上调至近1,000美元，原因是预计对用于游戏和挖掘加密货币的视频显卡和相关半导体的需求将持续强劲，股价上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Keybanc analyst John Vinh lifted his one-year price target on Nvidia to $950 from $775, following in the footsteps of BMO Capital Markets analyst Ambrish Srivastava, who just last Thursdaylifted his own price target on the chip titanto a Wall Street high of $1,000 from $975 and affirmed an outperform rating.</p><p><blockquote>Keybanc分析师John Vinh将Nvidia的一年目标价从775美元上调至950美元，紧随BMO资本市场分析师Ambrish Srivastava的脚步，后者上周四将芯片titanto的目标价从华尔街高点1,000美元上调至975美元，并确认跑赢大盘评级。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts have piled on the praise for Nvidia since the company’s first-quarter results,which came in better than expected&nbsp;amid strength in so-called hyperscale data center demand, which includes demand for its graphics cards and chips using for both gaming and crypto mining.</p><p><blockquote>自英伟达公布第一季度业绩以来，分析师对该公司赞不绝口，由于所谓的超大规模数据中心需求强劲，该公司的业绩好于预期，其中包括对用于游戏和加密货币挖矿的显卡和芯片的需求。</blockquote></p><p> Even before then, analysts were&nbsp;touting Nvidia’s performance&nbsp;amid strong demand for its gaming graphics cards, which surged through the pandemic and stay-at-home orders that boosted demand for at-home entertainment like video games, compounded by the ongoing chip shortage that has boosted demand - and prices -for the chips and the cards themselves.</p><p><blockquote>甚至在此之前，分析师就在对英伟达游戏显卡的强劲需求中吹捧英伟达的业绩，该显卡在大流行期间激增，而居家订单提振了对视频游戏等家庭娱乐的需求，而持续的芯片短缺又加剧了这种情况。增加了芯片和卡本身的需求和价格。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, surging prices for Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies this year also have fueled demand. Crypto miners use graphics processing units, or GPUs, to mine currencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. Nvidia’slatest RTX 30 series, launched last year, has proven particularly popular with miners.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，今年比特币、以太币和其他加密货币的价格飙升也刺激了需求。加密货币矿工使用图形处理单元（GPU）来挖掘比特币和以太币等货币。事实证明，英伟达去年推出的最新RTX 30系列特别受矿工欢迎。</blockquote></p><p> TheStreet's&nbsp;Jim Cramerin his&nbsp;Real Money&nbsp;column on Tuesdaynoted another reason to be bullish on Nvidia: a potential acquisition that will beef up its business even more.</p><p><blockquote>《华尔街日报》的吉姆·克莱默(Jim Cramerer)在周二的《真钱》专栏中指出了看好英伟达的另一个原因：一项潜在的收购将进一步增强其业务。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, Jim pointed to the increasing likelihood that regulators will allow the company to buy Arm Holdings, a British company that excels in cellphones and personal computers, which will add to its already strong sales pipeline that has been driven by far more than just demand from Ethereum miners.</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，吉姆指出，监管机构允许该公司收购Arm Holdings的可能性越来越大，Arm Holdings是一家擅长手机和个人电脑的英国公司，这将增加其本已强劲的销售渠道，而该渠道的推动因素不仅仅是来自以太币矿工的需求。</blockquote></p><p> \"I'm sure some of you might think that Nvidia is more of an Ethereum play, because its cards are used to mine the cryptocurrency,\" Cramer wrote. \"In reality, that's a tiny portion of their business and is made up of cards that aren't up to specification for gaming, scrap if you will.\"</p><p><blockquote>克莱默写道：“我相信你们中的一些人可能会认为英伟达更像是一家以太币公司，因为它的卡是用来挖掘加密货币的。”“事实上，这只是他们业务的一小部分，而且由不符合游戏规格的卡组成，如果你愿意的话，可以报废。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/nvidia-nvda-keybanc-price-target-boost-070621\">Thestreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/nvidia-nvda-keybanc-price-target-boost-070621","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189769697","content_text":"Nvidia (NVDA) shares gained on Tuesday after another Wall Street analyst lifted his price target to near $1,000 amid expectations of continued strong demand for video graphics cards and related semiconductors that are used for both gaming and mining cryptocurrencies.\nKeybanc analyst John Vinh lifted his one-year price target on Nvidia to $950 from $775, following in the footsteps of BMO Capital Markets analyst Ambrish Srivastava, who just last Thursdaylifted his own price target on the chip titanto a Wall Street high of $1,000 from $975 and affirmed an outperform rating.\nAnalysts have piled on the praise for Nvidia since the company’s first-quarter results,which came in better than expected amid strength in so-called hyperscale data center demand, which includes demand for its graphics cards and chips using for both gaming and crypto mining.\nEven before then, analysts were touting Nvidia’s performance amid strong demand for its gaming graphics cards, which surged through the pandemic and stay-at-home orders that boosted demand for at-home entertainment like video games, compounded by the ongoing chip shortage that has boosted demand - and prices -for the chips and the cards themselves.\nAt the same time, surging prices for Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies this year also have fueled demand. Crypto miners use graphics processing units, or GPUs, to mine currencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. Nvidia’slatest RTX 30 series, launched last year, has proven particularly popular with miners.\nTheStreet's Jim Cramerin his Real Money column on Tuesdaynoted another reason to be bullish on Nvidia: a potential acquisition that will beef up its business even more.\nSpecifically, Jim pointed to the increasing likelihood that regulators will allow the company to buy Arm Holdings, a British company that excels in cellphones and personal computers, which will add to its already strong sales pipeline that has been driven by far more than just demand from Ethereum miners.\n\"I'm sure some of you might think that Nvidia is more of an Ethereum play, because its cards are used to mine the cryptocurrency,\" Cramer wrote. \"In reality, that's a tiny portion of their business and is made up of cards that aren't up to specification for gaming, scrap if you will.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":245,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":609282610,"gmtCreate":1638286082931,"gmtModify":1638286082931,"author":{"id":"3576491127300046","authorId":"3576491127300046","name":"Johnjohnn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4915eff6e74b30b32df99de166e08340","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576491127300046","idStr":"3576491127300046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Still a bit high","listText":"Still a bit high","text":"Still a bit high","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/609282610","repostId":"1158390889","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158390889","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638285505,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1158390889?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-30 23:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock: What to Expect During the Holiday Season<blockquote>苹果股票：假期期间的预期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158390889","media":"TheStreet","summary":"The 2021 holiday shopping season has officially started. Here is what Apple investors should expect of the Cupertino company and its stock in the next few weeks.Black Friday and Cyber Monday are behind us. With that, the 2021 holiday season in the US and parts of the world has officially begun. Consumer product and service companies like Apple are staring into the busiest weeks of sales in the year.Figure 1: Apple's iPhone, Apple Watch and Air Pods boxes.Today, the Apple Maven talks about what A","content":"<p>The 2021 holiday shopping season has officially started. Here is what Apple investors should expect of the Cupertino company and its stock in the next few weeks.</p><p><blockquote>2021年假日购物季正式开启。以下是苹果投资者在未来几周内对库比蒂诺公司及其股票的预期。</blockquote></p><p> Black Friday and Cyber Monday are behind us. With that, the 2021 holiday season in the US and parts of the world has officially begun. Consumer product and service companies like Apple are staring into the busiest weeks of sales in the year.</p><p><blockquote>黑色星期五和网络星期一已经过去了。至此，美国和世界部分地区的2021年假期正式开始。像苹果这样的消费品和服务公司正面临一年中销售最繁忙的几周。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84c9d46c1a03b350ba81dcd1e6e39c83\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1: Apple's iPhone, Apple Watch and Air Pods boxes.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：苹果的iPhone、苹果手表和Air Pods盒子。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Today, the Apple Maven talks about what Apple stock&nbsp;investors should think about as the shopping season kicks into gear.</p><p><blockquote>今天，这位苹果专家谈论了随着购物季的到来，苹果股票投资者应该思考什么。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple to benefit from strong consumer</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果将受益于强劲的消费者</b></blockquote></p><p> At the highest level possible, Apple is likely to benefit from a rising tide that lifts all boats in 2021. The chart below clearly shows that consumer spending in the US has not only recovered from the 2020 flash recession, but it has been “making up for lost time”. Spending trends have even accelerated slightly compared to the pre-pandemic period.</p><p><blockquote>在可能的最高水平上，苹果可能会受益于2021年的涨潮。下图清楚地表明，美国的消费者支出不仅从2020年的快速衰退中恢复过来，而且一直在“弥补失去的时间”。与疫情之前相比，支出趋势甚至略有加速。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edfb88f466fa1cfe1c35bddbd1cf1bb7\" tg-width=\"756\" tg-height=\"357\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 2: Consumer spending in US.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：美国消费者支出。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Regarding the holiday period, however, consumer product and service sales may look a bit atypical. Adobe has recently&nbsp;reported&nbsp;that Black Friday activity online dropped year-over-year for the first time ever. Online sales reached $8.9 billion, lower than 2020’s $9 billion.</p><p><blockquote>然而，就假期而言，消费品和服务销售可能看起来有点不寻常。Adobe最近报告称，黑色星期五在线活动首次同比下降。在线销售额达到89亿美元，低于2020年的90亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Without context, these numbers may look concerning. But once again, there is nothing typical about this COVID-19 crisis. Black Friday likely suffered from (1) consumers buying earlier than usual, to avoid delayed deliveries in late November and December, and (2) supply chain constraints causing shortages and missed sales opportunities.</p><p><blockquote>如果没有背景，这些数字可能看起来令人担忧。但同样，这场新冠肺炎危机没有任何典型之处。黑色星期五可能受到以下影响：(1)消费者比平时更早购买，以避免11月底和12月的延迟交货，以及(2)供应链限制导致短缺和错失销售机会。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple could do better than average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果可以做得比平均水平更好</b></blockquote></p><p> The demand scenario described above is at least modestly optimistic, in my view, even if not without challenges on the supply side. Even so, I think that Apple has a good chance of performing better than average in the next few weeks.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，上述需求情景至少是适度乐观的，即使供应方面并非没有挑战。即便如此，我认为苹果在未来几周的表现很有可能好于平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> For starters, the Cupertino company is&nbsp;one of the best in the world at managing inventory&nbsp;and supply chain. Consider, however, that CEO Tim Cook&nbsp;has already warned of an impact&nbsp;of $6 billion to revenues in the holiday quarter caused by the production and logistics bottlenecks.</p><p><blockquote>首先，库比蒂诺公司是世界上管理库存和供应链最好的公司之一。然而，首席执行官蒂姆·库克已经警告称，生产和物流瓶颈将对假日季度的收入造成60亿美元的影响。</blockquote></p><p> Second, the demand for Apple’s products and services seems unshaken.I have discussed a few times that the iPhone, for example, is likely to have its best years of sales ever in fiscal 2021 and 2022. Not even the tough comps introduced by the first 5G-capable model will likely be enough to steal the thunder of a well-received iPhone 13.</p><p><blockquote>其次，对苹果产品和服务的需求似乎没有动摇。例如，我曾多次讨论过iPhone可能会在2021财年和2022财年迎来有史以来销量最好的年份。即使是第一款支持5G的机型推出的强硬竞争也可能不足以抢走广受好评的iPhone 13的风头。</blockquote></p><p> <b>But how about AAPL stock?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>但苹果公司的股票怎么样？</b></blockquote></p><p> Keep in mind that financial performance, especially in the short term, does not always correlate with share price movements. In fact, any impact that the holiday P&amp;L results may have on Apple stock would likely not happen until late January 2022, when the company reports fiscal Q1 earnings.</p><p><blockquote>请记住，财务业绩，尤其是短期业绩，并不总是与股价变动相关。事实上，假日损益结果可能对苹果股票产生的任何影响可能要到2022年1月下旬该公司报告第一财季收益时才会发生。</blockquote></p><p> For the immediate term, Apple investors should keep in mind that the stock’s&nbsp;seasonal patterns have been historically unfavorable&nbsp;around this time of the year. The chart below shows that AAPL has clearly underperformed in November through January. Will this time be any different? Only time will tell.</p><p><blockquote>就近期而言，苹果投资者应记住，该股的季节性模式在每年的这个时候历来都是不利的。下图显示，AAPL从11月到1月的表现明显不佳。这次会有什么不同吗？只有时间能证明一切。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4c72a2f9720f472ceba32b24f4a2a78\" tg-width=\"682\" tg-height=\"357\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 3: AAPL average monthly return since iPhone launch.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图3：自iPhone推出以来AAPL的平均月回报率。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock: What to Expect During the Holiday Season<blockquote>苹果股票：假期期间的预期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock: What to Expect During the Holiday Season<blockquote>苹果股票：假期期间的预期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-30 23:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The 2021 holiday shopping season has officially started. Here is what Apple investors should expect of the Cupertino company and its stock in the next few weeks.</p><p><blockquote>2021年假日购物季正式开启。以下是苹果投资者在未来几周内对库比蒂诺公司及其股票的预期。</blockquote></p><p> Black Friday and Cyber Monday are behind us. With that, the 2021 holiday season in the US and parts of the world has officially begun. Consumer product and service companies like Apple are staring into the busiest weeks of sales in the year.</p><p><blockquote>黑色星期五和网络星期一已经过去了。至此，美国和世界部分地区的2021年假期正式开始。像苹果这样的消费品和服务公司正面临一年中销售最繁忙的几周。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84c9d46c1a03b350ba81dcd1e6e39c83\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1: Apple's iPhone, Apple Watch and Air Pods boxes.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：苹果的iPhone、苹果手表和Air Pods盒子。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Today, the Apple Maven talks about what Apple stock&nbsp;investors should think about as the shopping season kicks into gear.</p><p><blockquote>今天，这位苹果专家谈论了随着购物季的到来，苹果股票投资者应该思考什么。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple to benefit from strong consumer</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果将受益于强劲的消费者</b></blockquote></p><p> At the highest level possible, Apple is likely to benefit from a rising tide that lifts all boats in 2021. The chart below clearly shows that consumer spending in the US has not only recovered from the 2020 flash recession, but it has been “making up for lost time”. Spending trends have even accelerated slightly compared to the pre-pandemic period.</p><p><blockquote>在可能的最高水平上，苹果可能会受益于2021年的涨潮。下图清楚地表明，美国的消费者支出不仅从2020年的快速衰退中恢复过来，而且一直在“弥补失去的时间”。与疫情之前相比，支出趋势甚至略有加速。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edfb88f466fa1cfe1c35bddbd1cf1bb7\" tg-width=\"756\" tg-height=\"357\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 2: Consumer spending in US.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：美国消费者支出。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Regarding the holiday period, however, consumer product and service sales may look a bit atypical. Adobe has recently&nbsp;reported&nbsp;that Black Friday activity online dropped year-over-year for the first time ever. Online sales reached $8.9 billion, lower than 2020’s $9 billion.</p><p><blockquote>然而，就假期而言，消费品和服务销售可能看起来有点不寻常。Adobe最近报告称，黑色星期五在线活动首次同比下降。在线销售额达到89亿美元，低于2020年的90亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Without context, these numbers may look concerning. But once again, there is nothing typical about this COVID-19 crisis. Black Friday likely suffered from (1) consumers buying earlier than usual, to avoid delayed deliveries in late November and December, and (2) supply chain constraints causing shortages and missed sales opportunities.</p><p><blockquote>如果没有背景，这些数字可能看起来令人担忧。但同样，这场新冠肺炎危机没有任何典型之处。黑色星期五可能受到以下影响：(1)消费者比平时更早购买，以避免11月底和12月的延迟交货，以及(2)供应链限制导致短缺和错失销售机会。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple could do better than average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果可以做得比平均水平更好</b></blockquote></p><p> The demand scenario described above is at least modestly optimistic, in my view, even if not without challenges on the supply side. Even so, I think that Apple has a good chance of performing better than average in the next few weeks.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，上述需求情景至少是适度乐观的，即使供应方面并非没有挑战。即便如此，我认为苹果在未来几周的表现很有可能好于平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> For starters, the Cupertino company is&nbsp;one of the best in the world at managing inventory&nbsp;and supply chain. Consider, however, that CEO Tim Cook&nbsp;has already warned of an impact&nbsp;of $6 billion to revenues in the holiday quarter caused by the production and logistics bottlenecks.</p><p><blockquote>首先，库比蒂诺公司是世界上管理库存和供应链最好的公司之一。然而，首席执行官蒂姆·库克已经警告称，生产和物流瓶颈将对假日季度的收入造成60亿美元的影响。</blockquote></p><p> Second, the demand for Apple’s products and services seems unshaken.I have discussed a few times that the iPhone, for example, is likely to have its best years of sales ever in fiscal 2021 and 2022. Not even the tough comps introduced by the first 5G-capable model will likely be enough to steal the thunder of a well-received iPhone 13.</p><p><blockquote>其次，对苹果产品和服务的需求似乎没有动摇。例如，我曾多次讨论过iPhone可能会在2021财年和2022财年迎来有史以来销量最好的年份。即使是第一款支持5G的机型推出的强硬竞争也可能不足以抢走广受好评的iPhone 13的风头。</blockquote></p><p> <b>But how about AAPL stock?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>但苹果公司的股票怎么样？</b></blockquote></p><p> Keep in mind that financial performance, especially in the short term, does not always correlate with share price movements. In fact, any impact that the holiday P&amp;L results may have on Apple stock would likely not happen until late January 2022, when the company reports fiscal Q1 earnings.</p><p><blockquote>请记住，财务业绩，尤其是短期业绩，并不总是与股价变动相关。事实上，假日损益结果可能对苹果股票产生的任何影响可能要到2022年1月下旬该公司报告第一财季收益时才会发生。</blockquote></p><p> For the immediate term, Apple investors should keep in mind that the stock’s&nbsp;seasonal patterns have been historically unfavorable&nbsp;around this time of the year. The chart below shows that AAPL has clearly underperformed in November through January. Will this time be any different? Only time will tell.</p><p><blockquote>就近期而言，苹果投资者应记住，该股的季节性模式在每年的这个时候历来都是不利的。下图显示，AAPL从11月到1月的表现明显不佳。这次会有什么不同吗？只有时间能证明一切。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4c72a2f9720f472ceba32b24f4a2a78\" tg-width=\"682\" tg-height=\"357\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 3: AAPL average monthly return since iPhone launch.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图3：自iPhone推出以来AAPL的平均月回报率。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-holiday-season-starts-what-next\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-holiday-season-starts-what-next","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158390889","content_text":"The 2021 holiday shopping season has officially started. Here is what Apple investors should expect of the Cupertino company and its stock in the next few weeks.\nBlack Friday and Cyber Monday are behind us. With that, the 2021 holiday season in the US and parts of the world has officially begun. Consumer product and service companies like Apple are staring into the busiest weeks of sales in the year.\nFigure 1: Apple's iPhone, Apple Watch and Air Pods boxes.\nToday, the Apple Maven talks about what Apple stock investors should think about as the shopping season kicks into gear.\nApple to benefit from strong consumer\nAt the highest level possible, Apple is likely to benefit from a rising tide that lifts all boats in 2021. The chart below clearly shows that consumer spending in the US has not only recovered from the 2020 flash recession, but it has been “making up for lost time”. Spending trends have even accelerated slightly compared to the pre-pandemic period.\nFigure 2: Consumer spending in US.\nRegarding the holiday period, however, consumer product and service sales may look a bit atypical. Adobe has recently reported that Black Friday activity online dropped year-over-year for the first time ever. Online sales reached $8.9 billion, lower than 2020’s $9 billion.\nWithout context, these numbers may look concerning. But once again, there is nothing typical about this COVID-19 crisis. Black Friday likely suffered from (1) consumers buying earlier than usual, to avoid delayed deliveries in late November and December, and (2) supply chain constraints causing shortages and missed sales opportunities.\nApple could do better than average\nThe demand scenario described above is at least modestly optimistic, in my view, even if not without challenges on the supply side. Even so, I think that Apple has a good chance of performing better than average in the next few weeks.\nFor starters, the Cupertino company is one of the best in the world at managing inventory and supply chain. Consider, however, that CEO Tim Cook has already warned of an impact of $6 billion to revenues in the holiday quarter caused by the production and logistics bottlenecks.\nSecond, the demand for Apple’s products and services seems unshaken.I have discussed a few times that the iPhone, for example, is likely to have its best years of sales ever in fiscal 2021 and 2022. Not even the tough comps introduced by the first 5G-capable model will likely be enough to steal the thunder of a well-received iPhone 13.\nBut how about AAPL stock?\nKeep in mind that financial performance, especially in the short term, does not always correlate with share price movements. In fact, any impact that the holiday P&L results may have on Apple stock would likely not happen until late January 2022, when the company reports fiscal Q1 earnings.\nFor the immediate term, Apple investors should keep in mind that the stock’s seasonal patterns have been historically unfavorable around this time of the year. The chart below shows that AAPL has clearly underperformed in November through January. Will this time be any different? Only time will tell.\nFigure 3: AAPL average monthly return since iPhone launch.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2575,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":173223156,"gmtCreate":1626663507675,"gmtModify":1631885593619,"author":{"id":"3576491127300046","authorId":"3576491127300046","name":"Johnjohnn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4915eff6e74b30b32df99de166e08340","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576491127300046","idStr":"3576491127300046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C6L.SI\">$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$</a>Sad","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C6L.SI\">$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$</a>Sad","text":"$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$Sad","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3d534e9ca14b7314a7a4472a1614984","width":"1170","height":"2026"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/173223156","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":569,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148944029,"gmtCreate":1625922968561,"gmtModify":1631890206910,"author":{"id":"3576491127300046","authorId":"3576491127300046","name":"Johnjohnn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4915eff6e74b30b32df99de166e08340","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576491127300046","idStr":"3576491127300046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Better not lie","listText":"Better not lie","text":"Better not lie","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148944029","repostId":"1185154176","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185154176","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625886925,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1185154176?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-10 11:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The bull market in stocks may last up to five years — here are six reasons why<blockquote>股市牛市可能持续长达五年——以下是六个原因</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185154176","media":"marketwatch","summary":"The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support. When the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday, the right move was to buy your favorite stocks. Friday’s market action proved that.We are still only in the early stages of what is going to be a three- to five-year bull market in stocks, for these six reasons.Behind the scenes, consumers have massive unspent savings because they hunkered down for the pandemic. The personal savings rate hit n","content":"<p>The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support</p><p><blockquote>经济蓬勃发展，盈利上升，美联储给予前所未有的支持</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16f57eb7b0f75afb2f46b6d61281db87\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"839\"><span>(Photo by Jorge Guerrero/AFP via Getty Images)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（豪尔赫·格雷罗/法新社，盖蒂图片社摄）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday, the right move was to buy your favorite stocks. Friday’s market action proved that.</p><p><blockquote>当股市抛售时，就像周四一样，正确的做法是购买你最喜欢的股票。周五的市场走势证明了这一点。</blockquote></p><p> It’s true that there could be a correction, given the already sizable 17% gain in the S&amp;P 500 Index&nbsp;this year. But you should buy then, too.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于标普500指数今年已经大幅上涨17%，确实可能会出现回调。但你也应该买。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s why.</p><p><blockquote>原因如下。</blockquote></p><p> We are still only in the early stages of what is going to be a three- to five-year bull market in stocks, for these six reasons.</p><p><blockquote>由于这六个原因，我们仍处于股市三到五年牛市的早期阶段。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. There’s tremendous pent-up demand</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.有巨大的被压抑的需求</b></blockquote></p><p> Everyone is looking to the Federal Reserve for cues about stimulus. They are overlooking private-sector forces that will push stocks higher. To sum up, there’s huge pent-up private-sector demand that will help propel U.S. GDP growth to 8% this year and 3.5%-4.5% for years after that. The pent-up demand comes from the following sources, points out Jim Paulsen, chief strategist and economist at the Leuthold Group.</p><p><blockquote>每个人都在向美联储寻求有关刺激的线索。他们忽视了将推高股市的私营部门力量。总而言之，巨大的被压抑的私营部门需求将有助于推动美国今年的GDP增长达到8%，并在此后几年达到3.5%-4.5%。Leuthold Group首席策略师兼经济学家吉姆·保尔森指出，被压抑的需求来自以下来源。</blockquote></p><p> First, there’s been a surge in household formation, as millennials hit the family years. This helps explain the big uptick in home demand. Once you buy a house, you have to fill it up with stuff. More consumer demand on the way.</p><p><blockquote>首先，随着千禧一代进入家庭年，家庭组建激增。这有助于解释家庭需求的大幅上升。一旦你买了房子，你就得把它装满东西。更多的消费者需求即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> Behind the scenes, consumers have massive unspent savings because they hunkered down for the pandemic. The personal savings rate hit nearly 16% of GDP, compared to a post war average of 6.5%. The prior high was 10% in 1970s.</p><p><blockquote>在幕后，消费者有大量未用完的储蓄，因为他们为疫情做好了准备。个人储蓄率接近GDP的16%，而战后的平均水平为6.5%。之前的高点是20世纪70年代的10%。</blockquote></p><p> Relatedly, household balance sheets improved remarkably. Debt-to-income ratios are the lowest since the 1990s. Consumers will continue to tap more bank loans and credit card capacity, as their confidence increases because employment and the economy remain strong.</p><p><blockquote>与此相关的是，家庭资产负债表显著改善。债务收入比是20世纪90年代以来的最低水平。消费者将继续利用更多的银行贷款和信用卡容量，因为就业和经济保持强劲，他们的信心增强。</blockquote></p><p> Next, there will be plenty more newly employed people once the extra unemployment benefits expire in September. This means consumer confidence will improve, which invariably boosts economic growth. The labor participation rate has room to improve, leaving spare employment capacity before we hit the full employment that can cap economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，一旦额外的失业救济金在9月份到期，将会有更多的新就业人口。这意味着消费者信心将会提高，这必然会促进经济增长。劳动参与率还有提高的空间，在我们达到可能限制经济增长的充分就业之前，留下了闲置的就业能力。</blockquote></p><p> Now let’s look at the pent-up demand in businesses.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们看看企业被压抑的需求。</blockquote></p><p> You know all the shortages of stuff you keep running into or hearing about? Here’s why this is happening. To prepare for a prolonged epidemic, businesses cut inventories to the bone. It was the biggest inventory liquidation ever. But now, companies have to build back inventories. The ongoing inventory rebuild will be huge.</p><p><blockquote>你知道你经常遇到或听说的所有短缺的东西吗？这就是为什么会发生这种情况。为了应对长期的疫情，企业大幅削减库存。这是有史以来最大的库存清理。但现在，企业不得不重建库存。正在进行的库存重建将是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> Companies also cut capacity, which they are building out again. Capital goods spending surged to record highs in the past year, advancing almost 23%, after being essentially flat for most of the prior two decades. This creates sustained growth, and it tells us a lot about business confidence.</p><p><blockquote>公司也削减了产能，并再次扩大产能。资本货物支出在过去二十年的大部分时间里基本持平，去年飙升至历史新高，增长了近23%。这创造了持续的增长，它告诉我们很多关于商业信心的信息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The bottom line</b>: We will see 7%-8% GDP growth this year, followed by 4%-4.5% next year and above average growth after that, supporting a sustained bull market in stocks. Expect the normal corrections along the way.</p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b>：我们今年将看到7%-8%的GDP增长，明年将达到4%-4.5%，之后将高于平均水平的增长，支持股市持续牛市。期待一路上的正常修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. An under-appreciated earnings boom lies ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.被低估的盈利繁荣即将到来</b></blockquote></p><p> The economic rebound has happened so quickly, analysts can’t keep up. Wall Street analysts project $190 a share in S&amp;P 500 earnings this year. But that is woefully low given the expected 7%-8% GDP growth and massive stimulus that has yet to kick in. Stimulus normally takes six to eight months to take effect, and a lot of the recent dollops happened inside that window.</p><p><blockquote>经济反弹发生得如此之快，分析师们跟不上。分析师预计标普500今年的每股收益为190美元。但考虑到预期的7%-8%的GDP增长和尚未生效的大规模刺激措施，这一数字低得可怜。刺激通常需要六到八个月才能生效，最近的很多刺激都发生在这个窗口内。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen expects 2021 S&amp;P 500 earnings will be more like $220 instead of the consensus estimate of $190.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预计，2021年标普500的盈利将更接近220美元，而不是普遍预期的190美元。</blockquote></p><p> “Analysts are still under-appreciating how much profits have improved and how much they will improve,” says Paulsen. “We had dramatic overreaction from policy officials. They addressed the collapse, but created a massive improvement in fundamentals. This is still playing out in terms of the recovery in profits.”</p><p><blockquote>保尔森表示：“分析师仍然低估了利润的改善程度以及将会改善多少。”“我们从政策官员那里得到了戏剧性的过度反应。他们解决了崩溃的问题，但在基本面上创造了巨大的改善。这在利润复苏方面仍在发挥作用。”</blockquote></p><p> Plus, more fiscal stimulus is probably on the way, in the form of infrastructure spending.</p><p><blockquote>此外，更多的财政刺激可能即将以基础设施支出的形式出现。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. There’s a new Fed in town</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.城里有一个新的美联储</b></blockquote></p><p> For much of the past three decades, the Fed has been quick to tighten its policy to ward off inflation. The central bank killed off growth in the process. That’s one reason why the past 20 years posted the slowest growth in the post-war era. Now, though, the Fed is much more accommodative and this may likely persist because inflation will remain sluggish (more on this, below).</p><p><blockquote>在过去三十年的大部分时间里，美联储一直在迅速收紧政策以抵御通胀。在此过程中，央行扼杀了经济增长。这就是过去20年是战后经济增长最慢的原因之一。然而现在，美联储更加宽松，这种情况可能会持续下去，因为通胀将保持低迷（更多内容见下文）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Here’s a simple gauge to measure this. Take GDP growth and subtract the yield on 10-year TreasuriesTMUBMUSD10Y,1.359%.This gauge was negative for much of 1980-2010, when the Fed kept growth cool to contain inflation. Now, though, Fed policy is helping to keep 10-year yields well below GDP growth, which allows the economy to run hot. This was the state of affairs during 1950-1965, which some analysts call “the golden age of capitalism” because of the glide path in growth.</p><p><blockquote>这里有一个简单的衡量标准来衡量这一点。以GDP增长减去10年期国债收益率MUBMUSD10Y，1.359%。该指标在1980年至2010年的大部分时间里都为负值，当时美联储保持增长降温以遏制通胀。但现在，美联储的政策正在帮助将10年期国债收益率保持在远低于GDP增长的水平，从而使经济过热。这就是1950-1965年的情况，一些分析家将其看涨期权为“资本主义的黄金时代”，因为增长的下滑路径。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Inflation won’t kill the bull</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.通货膨胀不会杀死公牛</b></blockquote></p><p> Inflation may rise near term because the economy is so hot. But medium term, the inflation slayers will win out. Here’s a roundup. The population is aging, and older people spend less. The boom in business capital spending will continue to boost productivity at companies. This allows them to avoid passing along rising costs to customers. Global trade and competition have not gone away. This puts downward pressure on prices since goods can be made more cheaply in many foreign countries. Ongoing technological advances continually put downward pressure on tech products.</p><p><blockquote>由于经济如此火爆，通胀短期内可能会上升。但从中期来看，通胀杀手将获胜。这是一个综述。人口老龄化，老年人消费减少。企业资本支出的繁荣将继续提高企业的生产率。这使他们能够避免将上升的成本转嫁给客户。全球贸易和竞争并没有消失。这给价格带来了下行压力，因为在许多外国可以更便宜地制造商品。持续的技术进步不断给科技产品带来下行压力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Valuations will improve</b></p><p><blockquote><b>五、估值将改善</b></blockquote></p><p> We’re now at the phase in the economic rebound where the following dynamic typically plays out. Stocks trade sideways for months, mostly because of worries about inflation and rising bond yields. All the while, the economy and earnings continue to grow, bringing down stock valuations. This dynamic played out at about this point in prior economic rebounds during 1983-84, 1993-94, 2004-05 and 2009-10. In short, we will see a big surge in earnings while the stock market marks time, or even corrects.</p><p><blockquote>我们现在正处于经济反弹的阶段，通常会出现以下动态。股市连续几个月横盘整理，主要是因为对通胀和债券收益率上升的担忧。与此同时，经济和盈利持续增长，压低了股票估值。在1983-84年、1993-94年、2004-05年和2009-10年的经济反弹中，这种动态大约在这一点上发挥了作用。简而言之，我们将看到盈利大幅飙升，而股市则标志着时间的到来，甚至是回调。</blockquote></p><p> This will reset stock valuations lower, removing one of the chief concerns among investors — high valuations. If S&amp;P 500 earnings hit $220 by the end of the year and the index is at 4,000 to 4,100 points because of a correction, stocks will be at an 18-19 price earnings ratio — below the average since 1990.</p><p><blockquote>这将降低股票估值，消除投资者的主要担忧之一——高估值。如果标普500的盈利在年底达到220美元，并且该指数因回调而达到4,000至4,100点，那么股票的市盈率将达到18-19倍，低于1990年以来的平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> True to form, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+1.30%and the Russell 2000&nbsp;small-cap index have traded sideways for two to four months. The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq&nbsp;recently broke out of trading ranges, but a bigger pullback would send them back into sideways action mode.</p><p><blockquote>与往常一样，道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA+1.30%和罗素2000小盘股指数已经横盘整理了两到四个月。标普500和纳斯达克最近突破了交易区间，但更大的回调将使它们重新进入横盘整理模式。</blockquote></p><p> <b>6. Sentiment isn’t extreme</b></p><p><blockquote><b>6.情绪并不极端</b></blockquote></p><p> As a contrarian, I look for excessive sentiment as a sign that it’s time to raise some cash. We don’t see that yet. A simple gauge to follow is the Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear ratio. It recently came in at 3.92. That’s near the warning path, which for me starts at 4. On the other hand, mutual fund cash was recently at $4.6 trillion, near historical highs. This represents caution among investors.</p><p><blockquote>作为一名逆向投资者，我将过度情绪视为是时候筹集一些现金的迹象。我们还没有看到这一点。一个简单的衡量标准是投资者情报牛熊比率。最近的价格是3.92。那是在警告路径附近，对我来说从4点开始。另一方面，共同基金现金最近为4.6万亿美元，接近历史高位。这代表了投资者的谨慎态度。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Three themes to follow</b></p><p><blockquote><b>遵循三个主题</b></blockquote></p><p> If we are in store for a sustained economic recovery and a multi-year bull market in stocks, it will pay to follow these three themes.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们即将迎来持续的经济复苏和股市多年牛市，那么遵循这三个主题是值得的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Favor cyclicals.</b>Stay with economically sensitive businesses and add to your holdings in them on pullbacks. This means cyclical companies in areas like financials, materials, industrials and consumer discretionary businesses.</p><p><blockquote><b>青睐周期性股票。</b>继续投资对经济敏感的企业，并在回调时增持这些企业。这意味着金融、材料、工业和非必需消费品业务等领域的周期性公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Avoid defensives.</b>If you want yield, go with stocks that pay a dividend but also have capital appreciation potential — not steady growth companies selling stuff like consumer staples. On this theme, in my stock letter Brush Up on Stocks (the link is in bio, below) I’ve recently suggested or reiterated Home Depot&nbsp;in retail, B. Riley Financial,a markets and investment banking name, and Regional Management&nbsp;in consumer finance.</p><p><blockquote><b>避免防御。</b>如果您想要收益，请选择支付股息但具有资本增值潜力的股票，而不是销售消费品等稳定增长的公司。关于这个主题，在我的股票信Brush Up on Stocks（链接在下面的简介中）中，我最近建议或重申了零售业的家得宝、市场和投资银行名称B.Riley Financial以及消费者金融领域的区域管理。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Favor emerging markets.</b>Their growth tends to be higher during expansions. Just be careful with China. It has an aging population. Limited workforce growth may constrain economic growth. Another challenge is that ongoing U.S.-China tensions and the related threat of persistent tariffs and trade barriers have global companies relocating supply chains elsewhere.</p><p><blockquote><b>青睐新兴市场。</b>在扩张期间，它们的增长率往往更高。小心中国。它的人口正在老龄化。劳动力增长有限可能会限制经济增长。另一个挑战是，持续的美中紧张局势以及持续关税和贸易壁垒的相关威胁导致全球公司将供应链转移到其他地方。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The bull market in stocks may last up to five years — here are six reasons why<blockquote>股市牛市可能持续长达五年——以下是六个原因</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe bull market in stocks may last up to five years — here are six reasons why<blockquote>股市牛市可能持续长达五年——以下是六个原因</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">marketwatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-10 11:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support</p><p><blockquote>经济蓬勃发展，盈利上升，美联储给予前所未有的支持</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16f57eb7b0f75afb2f46b6d61281db87\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"839\"><span>(Photo by Jorge Guerrero/AFP via Getty Images)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（豪尔赫·格雷罗/法新社，盖蒂图片社摄）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday, the right move was to buy your favorite stocks. Friday’s market action proved that.</p><p><blockquote>当股市抛售时，就像周四一样，正确的做法是购买你最喜欢的股票。周五的市场走势证明了这一点。</blockquote></p><p> It’s true that there could be a correction, given the already sizable 17% gain in the S&amp;P 500 Index&nbsp;this year. But you should buy then, too.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于标普500指数今年已经大幅上涨17%，确实可能会出现回调。但你也应该买。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s why.</p><p><blockquote>原因如下。</blockquote></p><p> We are still only in the early stages of what is going to be a three- to five-year bull market in stocks, for these six reasons.</p><p><blockquote>由于这六个原因，我们仍处于股市三到五年牛市的早期阶段。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. There’s tremendous pent-up demand</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.有巨大的被压抑的需求</b></blockquote></p><p> Everyone is looking to the Federal Reserve for cues about stimulus. They are overlooking private-sector forces that will push stocks higher. To sum up, there’s huge pent-up private-sector demand that will help propel U.S. GDP growth to 8% this year and 3.5%-4.5% for years after that. The pent-up demand comes from the following sources, points out Jim Paulsen, chief strategist and economist at the Leuthold Group.</p><p><blockquote>每个人都在向美联储寻求有关刺激的线索。他们忽视了将推高股市的私营部门力量。总而言之，巨大的被压抑的私营部门需求将有助于推动美国今年的GDP增长达到8%，并在此后几年达到3.5%-4.5%。Leuthold Group首席策略师兼经济学家吉姆·保尔森指出，被压抑的需求来自以下来源。</blockquote></p><p> First, there’s been a surge in household formation, as millennials hit the family years. This helps explain the big uptick in home demand. Once you buy a house, you have to fill it up with stuff. More consumer demand on the way.</p><p><blockquote>首先，随着千禧一代进入家庭年，家庭组建激增。这有助于解释家庭需求的大幅上升。一旦你买了房子，你就得把它装满东西。更多的消费者需求即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> Behind the scenes, consumers have massive unspent savings because they hunkered down for the pandemic. The personal savings rate hit nearly 16% of GDP, compared to a post war average of 6.5%. The prior high was 10% in 1970s.</p><p><blockquote>在幕后，消费者有大量未用完的储蓄，因为他们为疫情做好了准备。个人储蓄率接近GDP的16%，而战后的平均水平为6.5%。之前的高点是20世纪70年代的10%。</blockquote></p><p> Relatedly, household balance sheets improved remarkably. Debt-to-income ratios are the lowest since the 1990s. Consumers will continue to tap more bank loans and credit card capacity, as their confidence increases because employment and the economy remain strong.</p><p><blockquote>与此相关的是，家庭资产负债表显著改善。债务收入比是20世纪90年代以来的最低水平。消费者将继续利用更多的银行贷款和信用卡容量，因为就业和经济保持强劲，他们的信心增强。</blockquote></p><p> Next, there will be plenty more newly employed people once the extra unemployment benefits expire in September. This means consumer confidence will improve, which invariably boosts economic growth. The labor participation rate has room to improve, leaving spare employment capacity before we hit the full employment that can cap economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，一旦额外的失业救济金在9月份到期，将会有更多的新就业人口。这意味着消费者信心将会提高，这必然会促进经济增长。劳动参与率还有提高的空间，在我们达到可能限制经济增长的充分就业之前，留下了闲置的就业能力。</blockquote></p><p> Now let’s look at the pent-up demand in businesses.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们看看企业被压抑的需求。</blockquote></p><p> You know all the shortages of stuff you keep running into or hearing about? Here’s why this is happening. To prepare for a prolonged epidemic, businesses cut inventories to the bone. It was the biggest inventory liquidation ever. But now, companies have to build back inventories. The ongoing inventory rebuild will be huge.</p><p><blockquote>你知道你经常遇到或听说的所有短缺的东西吗？这就是为什么会发生这种情况。为了应对长期的疫情，企业大幅削减库存。这是有史以来最大的库存清理。但现在，企业不得不重建库存。正在进行的库存重建将是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> Companies also cut capacity, which they are building out again. Capital goods spending surged to record highs in the past year, advancing almost 23%, after being essentially flat for most of the prior two decades. This creates sustained growth, and it tells us a lot about business confidence.</p><p><blockquote>公司也削减了产能，并再次扩大产能。资本货物支出在过去二十年的大部分时间里基本持平，去年飙升至历史新高，增长了近23%。这创造了持续的增长，它告诉我们很多关于商业信心的信息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The bottom line</b>: We will see 7%-8% GDP growth this year, followed by 4%-4.5% next year and above average growth after that, supporting a sustained bull market in stocks. Expect the normal corrections along the way.</p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b>：我们今年将看到7%-8%的GDP增长，明年将达到4%-4.5%，之后将高于平均水平的增长，支持股市持续牛市。期待一路上的正常修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. An under-appreciated earnings boom lies ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.被低估的盈利繁荣即将到来</b></blockquote></p><p> The economic rebound has happened so quickly, analysts can’t keep up. Wall Street analysts project $190 a share in S&amp;P 500 earnings this year. But that is woefully low given the expected 7%-8% GDP growth and massive stimulus that has yet to kick in. Stimulus normally takes six to eight months to take effect, and a lot of the recent dollops happened inside that window.</p><p><blockquote>经济反弹发生得如此之快，分析师们跟不上。分析师预计标普500今年的每股收益为190美元。但考虑到预期的7%-8%的GDP增长和尚未生效的大规模刺激措施，这一数字低得可怜。刺激通常需要六到八个月才能生效，最近的很多刺激都发生在这个窗口内。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen expects 2021 S&amp;P 500 earnings will be more like $220 instead of the consensus estimate of $190.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预计，2021年标普500的盈利将更接近220美元，而不是普遍预期的190美元。</blockquote></p><p> “Analysts are still under-appreciating how much profits have improved and how much they will improve,” says Paulsen. “We had dramatic overreaction from policy officials. They addressed the collapse, but created a massive improvement in fundamentals. This is still playing out in terms of the recovery in profits.”</p><p><blockquote>保尔森表示：“分析师仍然低估了利润的改善程度以及将会改善多少。”“我们从政策官员那里得到了戏剧性的过度反应。他们解决了崩溃的问题，但在基本面上创造了巨大的改善。这在利润复苏方面仍在发挥作用。”</blockquote></p><p> Plus, more fiscal stimulus is probably on the way, in the form of infrastructure spending.</p><p><blockquote>此外，更多的财政刺激可能即将以基础设施支出的形式出现。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. There’s a new Fed in town</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.城里有一个新的美联储</b></blockquote></p><p> For much of the past three decades, the Fed has been quick to tighten its policy to ward off inflation. The central bank killed off growth in the process. That’s one reason why the past 20 years posted the slowest growth in the post-war era. Now, though, the Fed is much more accommodative and this may likely persist because inflation will remain sluggish (more on this, below).</p><p><blockquote>在过去三十年的大部分时间里，美联储一直在迅速收紧政策以抵御通胀。在此过程中，央行扼杀了经济增长。这就是过去20年是战后经济增长最慢的原因之一。然而现在，美联储更加宽松，这种情况可能会持续下去，因为通胀将保持低迷（更多内容见下文）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Here’s a simple gauge to measure this. Take GDP growth and subtract the yield on 10-year TreasuriesTMUBMUSD10Y,1.359%.This gauge was negative for much of 1980-2010, when the Fed kept growth cool to contain inflation. Now, though, Fed policy is helping to keep 10-year yields well below GDP growth, which allows the economy to run hot. This was the state of affairs during 1950-1965, which some analysts call “the golden age of capitalism” because of the glide path in growth.</p><p><blockquote>这里有一个简单的衡量标准来衡量这一点。以GDP增长减去10年期国债收益率MUBMUSD10Y，1.359%。该指标在1980年至2010年的大部分时间里都为负值，当时美联储保持增长降温以遏制通胀。但现在，美联储的政策正在帮助将10年期国债收益率保持在远低于GDP增长的水平，从而使经济过热。这就是1950-1965年的情况，一些分析家将其看涨期权为“资本主义的黄金时代”，因为增长的下滑路径。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Inflation won’t kill the bull</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.通货膨胀不会杀死公牛</b></blockquote></p><p> Inflation may rise near term because the economy is so hot. But medium term, the inflation slayers will win out. Here’s a roundup. The population is aging, and older people spend less. The boom in business capital spending will continue to boost productivity at companies. This allows them to avoid passing along rising costs to customers. Global trade and competition have not gone away. This puts downward pressure on prices since goods can be made more cheaply in many foreign countries. Ongoing technological advances continually put downward pressure on tech products.</p><p><blockquote>由于经济如此火爆，通胀短期内可能会上升。但从中期来看，通胀杀手将获胜。这是一个综述。人口老龄化，老年人消费减少。企业资本支出的繁荣将继续提高企业的生产率。这使他们能够避免将上升的成本转嫁给客户。全球贸易和竞争并没有消失。这给价格带来了下行压力，因为在许多外国可以更便宜地制造商品。持续的技术进步不断给科技产品带来下行压力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Valuations will improve</b></p><p><blockquote><b>五、估值将改善</b></blockquote></p><p> We’re now at the phase in the economic rebound where the following dynamic typically plays out. Stocks trade sideways for months, mostly because of worries about inflation and rising bond yields. All the while, the economy and earnings continue to grow, bringing down stock valuations. This dynamic played out at about this point in prior economic rebounds during 1983-84, 1993-94, 2004-05 and 2009-10. In short, we will see a big surge in earnings while the stock market marks time, or even corrects.</p><p><blockquote>我们现在正处于经济反弹的阶段，通常会出现以下动态。股市连续几个月横盘整理，主要是因为对通胀和债券收益率上升的担忧。与此同时，经济和盈利持续增长，压低了股票估值。在1983-84年、1993-94年、2004-05年和2009-10年的经济反弹中，这种动态大约在这一点上发挥了作用。简而言之，我们将看到盈利大幅飙升，而股市则标志着时间的到来，甚至是回调。</blockquote></p><p> This will reset stock valuations lower, removing one of the chief concerns among investors — high valuations. If S&amp;P 500 earnings hit $220 by the end of the year and the index is at 4,000 to 4,100 points because of a correction, stocks will be at an 18-19 price earnings ratio — below the average since 1990.</p><p><blockquote>这将降低股票估值，消除投资者的主要担忧之一——高估值。如果标普500的盈利在年底达到220美元，并且该指数因回调而达到4,000至4,100点，那么股票的市盈率将达到18-19倍，低于1990年以来的平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> True to form, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+1.30%and the Russell 2000&nbsp;small-cap index have traded sideways for two to four months. The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq&nbsp;recently broke out of trading ranges, but a bigger pullback would send them back into sideways action mode.</p><p><blockquote>与往常一样，道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA+1.30%和罗素2000小盘股指数已经横盘整理了两到四个月。标普500和纳斯达克最近突破了交易区间，但更大的回调将使它们重新进入横盘整理模式。</blockquote></p><p> <b>6. Sentiment isn’t extreme</b></p><p><blockquote><b>6.情绪并不极端</b></blockquote></p><p> As a contrarian, I look for excessive sentiment as a sign that it’s time to raise some cash. We don’t see that yet. A simple gauge to follow is the Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear ratio. It recently came in at 3.92. That’s near the warning path, which for me starts at 4. On the other hand, mutual fund cash was recently at $4.6 trillion, near historical highs. This represents caution among investors.</p><p><blockquote>作为一名逆向投资者，我将过度情绪视为是时候筹集一些现金的迹象。我们还没有看到这一点。一个简单的衡量标准是投资者情报牛熊比率。最近的价格是3.92。那是在警告路径附近，对我来说从4点开始。另一方面，共同基金现金最近为4.6万亿美元，接近历史高位。这代表了投资者的谨慎态度。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Three themes to follow</b></p><p><blockquote><b>遵循三个主题</b></blockquote></p><p> If we are in store for a sustained economic recovery and a multi-year bull market in stocks, it will pay to follow these three themes.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们即将迎来持续的经济复苏和股市多年牛市，那么遵循这三个主题是值得的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Favor cyclicals.</b>Stay with economically sensitive businesses and add to your holdings in them on pullbacks. This means cyclical companies in areas like financials, materials, industrials and consumer discretionary businesses.</p><p><blockquote><b>青睐周期性股票。</b>继续投资对经济敏感的企业，并在回调时增持这些企业。这意味着金融、材料、工业和非必需消费品业务等领域的周期性公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Avoid defensives.</b>If you want yield, go with stocks that pay a dividend but also have capital appreciation potential — not steady growth companies selling stuff like consumer staples. On this theme, in my stock letter Brush Up on Stocks (the link is in bio, below) I’ve recently suggested or reiterated Home Depot&nbsp;in retail, B. Riley Financial,a markets and investment banking name, and Regional Management&nbsp;in consumer finance.</p><p><blockquote><b>避免防御。</b>如果您想要收益，请选择支付股息但具有资本增值潜力的股票，而不是销售消费品等稳定增长的公司。关于这个主题，在我的股票信Brush Up on Stocks（链接在下面的简介中）中，我最近建议或重申了零售业的家得宝、市场和投资银行名称B.Riley Financial以及消费者金融领域的区域管理。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Favor emerging markets.</b>Their growth tends to be higher during expansions. Just be careful with China. It has an aging population. Limited workforce growth may constrain economic growth. Another challenge is that ongoing U.S.-China tensions and the related threat of persistent tariffs and trade barriers have global companies relocating supply chains elsewhere.</p><p><blockquote><b>青睐新兴市场。</b>在扩张期间，它们的增长率往往更高。小心中国。它的人口正在老龄化。劳动力增长有限可能会限制经济增长。另一个挑战是，持续的美中紧张局势以及持续关税和贸易壁垒的相关威胁导致全球公司将供应链转移到其他地方。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bull-market-in-stocks-may-last-up-to-five-years-here-are-six-reasons-why-11625842781?mod=home-page\">marketwatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bull-market-in-stocks-may-last-up-to-five-years-here-are-six-reasons-why-11625842781?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185154176","content_text":"The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support\n(Photo by Jorge Guerrero/AFP via Getty Images)\nWhen the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday, the right move was to buy your favorite stocks. Friday’s market action proved that.\nIt’s true that there could be a correction, given the already sizable 17% gain in the S&P 500 Index this year. But you should buy then, too.\nHere’s why.\nWe are still only in the early stages of what is going to be a three- to five-year bull market in stocks, for these six reasons.\n1. There’s tremendous pent-up demand\nEveryone is looking to the Federal Reserve for cues about stimulus. They are overlooking private-sector forces that will push stocks higher. To sum up, there’s huge pent-up private-sector demand that will help propel U.S. GDP growth to 8% this year and 3.5%-4.5% for years after that. The pent-up demand comes from the following sources, points out Jim Paulsen, chief strategist and economist at the Leuthold Group.\nFirst, there’s been a surge in household formation, as millennials hit the family years. This helps explain the big uptick in home demand. Once you buy a house, you have to fill it up with stuff. More consumer demand on the way.\nBehind the scenes, consumers have massive unspent savings because they hunkered down for the pandemic. The personal savings rate hit nearly 16% of GDP, compared to a post war average of 6.5%. The prior high was 10% in 1970s.\nRelatedly, household balance sheets improved remarkably. Debt-to-income ratios are the lowest since the 1990s. Consumers will continue to tap more bank loans and credit card capacity, as their confidence increases because employment and the economy remain strong.\nNext, there will be plenty more newly employed people once the extra unemployment benefits expire in September. This means consumer confidence will improve, which invariably boosts economic growth. The labor participation rate has room to improve, leaving spare employment capacity before we hit the full employment that can cap economic growth.\nNow let’s look at the pent-up demand in businesses.\nYou know all the shortages of stuff you keep running into or hearing about? Here’s why this is happening. To prepare for a prolonged epidemic, businesses cut inventories to the bone. It was the biggest inventory liquidation ever. But now, companies have to build back inventories. The ongoing inventory rebuild will be huge.\nCompanies also cut capacity, which they are building out again. Capital goods spending surged to record highs in the past year, advancing almost 23%, after being essentially flat for most of the prior two decades. This creates sustained growth, and it tells us a lot about business confidence.\nThe bottom line: We will see 7%-8% GDP growth this year, followed by 4%-4.5% next year and above average growth after that, supporting a sustained bull market in stocks. Expect the normal corrections along the way.\n2. An under-appreciated earnings boom lies ahead\nThe economic rebound has happened so quickly, analysts can’t keep up. Wall Street analysts project $190 a share in S&P 500 earnings this year. But that is woefully low given the expected 7%-8% GDP growth and massive stimulus that has yet to kick in. Stimulus normally takes six to eight months to take effect, and a lot of the recent dollops happened inside that window.\nPaulsen expects 2021 S&P 500 earnings will be more like $220 instead of the consensus estimate of $190.\n“Analysts are still under-appreciating how much profits have improved and how much they will improve,” says Paulsen. “We had dramatic overreaction from policy officials. They addressed the collapse, but created a massive improvement in fundamentals. This is still playing out in terms of the recovery in profits.”\nPlus, more fiscal stimulus is probably on the way, in the form of infrastructure spending.\n3. There’s a new Fed in town\nFor much of the past three decades, the Fed has been quick to tighten its policy to ward off inflation. The central bank killed off growth in the process. That’s one reason why the past 20 years posted the slowest growth in the post-war era. Now, though, the Fed is much more accommodative and this may likely persist because inflation will remain sluggish (more on this, below).\nHere’s a simple gauge to measure this. Take GDP growth and subtract the yield on 10-year TreasuriesTMUBMUSD10Y,1.359%.This gauge was negative for much of 1980-2010, when the Fed kept growth cool to contain inflation. Now, though, Fed policy is helping to keep 10-year yields well below GDP growth, which allows the economy to run hot. This was the state of affairs during 1950-1965, which some analysts call “the golden age of capitalism” because of the glide path in growth.\n4. Inflation won’t kill the bull\nInflation may rise near term because the economy is so hot. But medium term, the inflation slayers will win out. Here’s a roundup. The population is aging, and older people spend less. The boom in business capital spending will continue to boost productivity at companies. This allows them to avoid passing along rising costs to customers. Global trade and competition have not gone away. This puts downward pressure on prices since goods can be made more cheaply in many foreign countries. Ongoing technological advances continually put downward pressure on tech products.\n5. Valuations will improve\nWe’re now at the phase in the economic rebound where the following dynamic typically plays out. Stocks trade sideways for months, mostly because of worries about inflation and rising bond yields. All the while, the economy and earnings continue to grow, bringing down stock valuations. This dynamic played out at about this point in prior economic rebounds during 1983-84, 1993-94, 2004-05 and 2009-10. In short, we will see a big surge in earnings while the stock market marks time, or even corrects.\nThis will reset stock valuations lower, removing one of the chief concerns among investors — high valuations. If S&P 500 earnings hit $220 by the end of the year and the index is at 4,000 to 4,100 points because of a correction, stocks will be at an 18-19 price earnings ratio — below the average since 1990.\nTrue to form, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+1.30%and the Russell 2000 small-cap index have traded sideways for two to four months. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq recently broke out of trading ranges, but a bigger pullback would send them back into sideways action mode.\n6. Sentiment isn’t extreme\nAs a contrarian, I look for excessive sentiment as a sign that it’s time to raise some cash. We don’t see that yet. A simple gauge to follow is the Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear ratio. It recently came in at 3.92. That’s near the warning path, which for me starts at 4. On the other hand, mutual fund cash was recently at $4.6 trillion, near historical highs. This represents caution among investors.\nThree themes to follow\nIf we are in store for a sustained economic recovery and a multi-year bull market in stocks, it will pay to follow these three themes.\nFavor cyclicals.Stay with economically sensitive businesses and add to your holdings in them on pullbacks. This means cyclical companies in areas like financials, materials, industrials and consumer discretionary businesses.\nAvoid defensives.If you want yield, go with stocks that pay a dividend but also have capital appreciation potential — not steady growth companies selling stuff like consumer staples. On this theme, in my stock letter Brush Up on Stocks (the link is in bio, below) I’ve recently suggested or reiterated Home Depot in retail, B. Riley Financial,a markets and investment banking name, and Regional Management in consumer finance.\nFavor emerging markets.Their growth tends to be higher during expansions. Just be careful with China. It has an aging population. Limited workforce growth may constrain economic growth. Another challenge is that ongoing U.S.-China tensions and the related threat of persistent tariffs and trade barriers have global companies relocating supply chains elsewhere.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":188,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":143290626,"gmtCreate":1625794784565,"gmtModify":1631885865137,"author":{"id":"3576491127300046","authorId":"3576491127300046","name":"Johnjohnn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4915eff6e74b30b32df99de166e08340","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576491127300046","idStr":"3576491127300046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">$Intel(INTC)$</a>To sell?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">$Intel(INTC)$</a>To sell?","text":"$Intel(INTC)$To sell?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e43d8597da0ab77d941493038dc42a77","width":"1170","height":"2026"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/143290626","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":407,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":157611753,"gmtCreate":1625580120172,"gmtModify":1631892700903,"author":{"id":"3576491127300046","authorId":"3576491127300046","name":"Johnjohnn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4915eff6e74b30b32df99de166e08340","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576491127300046","idStr":"3576491127300046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh my","listText":"Oh my","text":"Oh my","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/157611753","repostId":"1189769697","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1189769697","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625579734,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1189769697?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-06 21:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia Gains on Another Analyst Price-Target Boost<blockquote>英伟达因分析师再次上调目标价而上涨</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189769697","media":"Thestreet","summary":"Nvidia  shares gained on Tuesday after another Wall Street analyst lifted his price target to near $1,000 amid expectations of continued strong demand for video graphics cards and related semiconductors that are used for both gaming and mining cryptocurrencies.Keybanc analyst John Vinh lifted his one-year price target on Nvidia to $950 from $775, following in the footsteps of BMO Capital Markets analyst Ambrish Srivastava, who just last Thursdaylifted his own price target on the chip titanto a W","content":"<p>Nvidia&nbsp;(<b>NVDA</b>)&nbsp;shares gained on Tuesday after another Wall Street analyst lifted his price target to near $1,000 amid expectations of continued strong demand for video graphics cards and related semiconductors that are used for both gaming and mining cryptocurrencies.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达(<b>NVDA</b>）周二，另一位华尔街分析师将目标价上调至近1,000美元，原因是预计对用于游戏和挖掘加密货币的视频显卡和相关半导体的需求将持续强劲，股价上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Keybanc analyst John Vinh lifted his one-year price target on Nvidia to $950 from $775, following in the footsteps of BMO Capital Markets analyst Ambrish Srivastava, who just last Thursdaylifted his own price target on the chip titanto a Wall Street high of $1,000 from $975 and affirmed an outperform rating.</p><p><blockquote>Keybanc分析师John Vinh将Nvidia的一年目标价从775美元上调至950美元，紧随BMO资本市场分析师Ambrish Srivastava的脚步，后者上周四将芯片titanto的目标价从华尔街高点1,000美元上调至975美元，并确认跑赢大盘评级。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts have piled on the praise for Nvidia since the company’s first-quarter results,which came in better than expected&nbsp;amid strength in so-called hyperscale data center demand, which includes demand for its graphics cards and chips using for both gaming and crypto mining.</p><p><blockquote>自英伟达公布第一季度业绩以来，分析师对该公司赞不绝口，由于所谓的超大规模数据中心需求强劲，该公司的业绩好于预期，其中包括对用于游戏和加密货币挖矿的显卡和芯片的需求。</blockquote></p><p> Even before then, analysts were&nbsp;touting Nvidia’s performance&nbsp;amid strong demand for its gaming graphics cards, which surged through the pandemic and stay-at-home orders that boosted demand for at-home entertainment like video games, compounded by the ongoing chip shortage that has boosted demand - and prices -for the chips and the cards themselves.</p><p><blockquote>甚至在此之前，分析师就在对英伟达游戏显卡的强劲需求中吹捧英伟达的业绩，该显卡在大流行期间激增，而居家订单提振了对视频游戏等家庭娱乐的需求，而持续的芯片短缺又加剧了这种情况。增加了芯片和卡本身的需求和价格。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, surging prices for Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies this year also have fueled demand. Crypto miners use graphics processing units, or GPUs, to mine currencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. Nvidia’slatest RTX 30 series, launched last year, has proven particularly popular with miners.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，今年比特币、以太币和其他加密货币的价格飙升也刺激了需求。加密货币矿工使用图形处理单元（GPU）来挖掘比特币和以太币等货币。事实证明，英伟达去年推出的最新RTX 30系列特别受矿工欢迎。</blockquote></p><p> TheStreet's&nbsp;Jim Cramerin his&nbsp;Real Money&nbsp;column on Tuesdaynoted another reason to be bullish on Nvidia: a potential acquisition that will beef up its business even more.</p><p><blockquote>《华尔街日报》的吉姆·克莱默(Jim Cramerer)在周二的《真钱》专栏中指出了看好英伟达的另一个原因：一项潜在的收购将进一步增强其业务。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, Jim pointed to the increasing likelihood that regulators will allow the company to buy Arm Holdings, a British company that excels in cellphones and personal computers, which will add to its already strong sales pipeline that has been driven by far more than just demand from Ethereum miners.</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，吉姆指出，监管机构允许该公司收购Arm Holdings的可能性越来越大，Arm Holdings是一家擅长手机和个人电脑的英国公司，这将增加其本已强劲的销售渠道，而该渠道的推动因素不仅仅是来自以太币矿工的需求。</blockquote></p><p> \"I'm sure some of you might think that Nvidia is more of an Ethereum play, because its cards are used to mine the cryptocurrency,\" Cramer wrote. \"In reality, that's a tiny portion of their business and is made up of cards that aren't up to specification for gaming, scrap if you will.\"</p><p><blockquote>克莱默写道：“我相信你们中的一些人可能会认为英伟达更像是一家以太币公司，因为它的卡是用来挖掘加密货币的。”“事实上，这只是他们业务的一小部分，而且由不符合游戏规格的卡组成，如果你愿意的话，可以报废。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia Gains on Another Analyst Price-Target Boost<blockquote>英伟达因分析师再次上调目标价而上涨</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia Gains on Another Analyst Price-Target Boost<blockquote>英伟达因分析师再次上调目标价而上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Thestreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-06 21:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Nvidia&nbsp;(<b>NVDA</b>)&nbsp;shares gained on Tuesday after another Wall Street analyst lifted his price target to near $1,000 amid expectations of continued strong demand for video graphics cards and related semiconductors that are used for both gaming and mining cryptocurrencies.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达(<b>NVDA</b>）周二，另一位华尔街分析师将目标价上调至近1,000美元，原因是预计对用于游戏和挖掘加密货币的视频显卡和相关半导体的需求将持续强劲，股价上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Keybanc analyst John Vinh lifted his one-year price target on Nvidia to $950 from $775, following in the footsteps of BMO Capital Markets analyst Ambrish Srivastava, who just last Thursdaylifted his own price target on the chip titanto a Wall Street high of $1,000 from $975 and affirmed an outperform rating.</p><p><blockquote>Keybanc分析师John Vinh将Nvidia的一年目标价从775美元上调至950美元，紧随BMO资本市场分析师Ambrish Srivastava的脚步，后者上周四将芯片titanto的目标价从华尔街高点1,000美元上调至975美元，并确认跑赢大盘评级。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts have piled on the praise for Nvidia since the company’s first-quarter results,which came in better than expected&nbsp;amid strength in so-called hyperscale data center demand, which includes demand for its graphics cards and chips using for both gaming and crypto mining.</p><p><blockquote>自英伟达公布第一季度业绩以来，分析师对该公司赞不绝口，由于所谓的超大规模数据中心需求强劲，该公司的业绩好于预期，其中包括对用于游戏和加密货币挖矿的显卡和芯片的需求。</blockquote></p><p> Even before then, analysts were&nbsp;touting Nvidia’s performance&nbsp;amid strong demand for its gaming graphics cards, which surged through the pandemic and stay-at-home orders that boosted demand for at-home entertainment like video games, compounded by the ongoing chip shortage that has boosted demand - and prices -for the chips and the cards themselves.</p><p><blockquote>甚至在此之前，分析师就在对英伟达游戏显卡的强劲需求中吹捧英伟达的业绩，该显卡在大流行期间激增，而居家订单提振了对视频游戏等家庭娱乐的需求，而持续的芯片短缺又加剧了这种情况。增加了芯片和卡本身的需求和价格。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, surging prices for Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies this year also have fueled demand. Crypto miners use graphics processing units, or GPUs, to mine currencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. Nvidia’slatest RTX 30 series, launched last year, has proven particularly popular with miners.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，今年比特币、以太币和其他加密货币的价格飙升也刺激了需求。加密货币矿工使用图形处理单元（GPU）来挖掘比特币和以太币等货币。事实证明，英伟达去年推出的最新RTX 30系列特别受矿工欢迎。</blockquote></p><p> TheStreet's&nbsp;Jim Cramerin his&nbsp;Real Money&nbsp;column on Tuesdaynoted another reason to be bullish on Nvidia: a potential acquisition that will beef up its business even more.</p><p><blockquote>《华尔街日报》的吉姆·克莱默(Jim Cramerer)在周二的《真钱》专栏中指出了看好英伟达的另一个原因：一项潜在的收购将进一步增强其业务。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, Jim pointed to the increasing likelihood that regulators will allow the company to buy Arm Holdings, a British company that excels in cellphones and personal computers, which will add to its already strong sales pipeline that has been driven by far more than just demand from Ethereum miners.</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，吉姆指出，监管机构允许该公司收购Arm Holdings的可能性越来越大，Arm Holdings是一家擅长手机和个人电脑的英国公司，这将增加其本已强劲的销售渠道，而该渠道的推动因素不仅仅是来自以太币矿工的需求。</blockquote></p><p> \"I'm sure some of you might think that Nvidia is more of an Ethereum play, because its cards are used to mine the cryptocurrency,\" Cramer wrote. \"In reality, that's a tiny portion of their business and is made up of cards that aren't up to specification for gaming, scrap if you will.\"</p><p><blockquote>克莱默写道：“我相信你们中的一些人可能会认为英伟达更像是一家以太币公司，因为它的卡是用来挖掘加密货币的。”“事实上，这只是他们业务的一小部分，而且由不符合游戏规格的卡组成，如果你愿意的话，可以报废。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/nvidia-nvda-keybanc-price-target-boost-070621\">Thestreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/nvidia-nvda-keybanc-price-target-boost-070621","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189769697","content_text":"Nvidia (NVDA) shares gained on Tuesday after another Wall Street analyst lifted his price target to near $1,000 amid expectations of continued strong demand for video graphics cards and related semiconductors that are used for both gaming and mining cryptocurrencies.\nKeybanc analyst John Vinh lifted his one-year price target on Nvidia to $950 from $775, following in the footsteps of BMO Capital Markets analyst Ambrish Srivastava, who just last Thursdaylifted his own price target on the chip titanto a Wall Street high of $1,000 from $975 and affirmed an outperform rating.\nAnalysts have piled on the praise for Nvidia since the company’s first-quarter results,which came in better than expected amid strength in so-called hyperscale data center demand, which includes demand for its graphics cards and chips using for both gaming and crypto mining.\nEven before then, analysts were touting Nvidia’s performance amid strong demand for its gaming graphics cards, which surged through the pandemic and stay-at-home orders that boosted demand for at-home entertainment like video games, compounded by the ongoing chip shortage that has boosted demand - and prices -for the chips and the cards themselves.\nAt the same time, surging prices for Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies this year also have fueled demand. 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