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0勋章

2021-07-21

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Cryptocurrency-related stocks soar in morning trading<blockquote>加密货币相关股票早盘飙升</blockquote>

2021-03-27

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Zhihu Technology fall on its first day of trading<blockquote>知乎科技上市首日下跌</blockquote>

2021-03-15

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2021-07-04

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Suze Orman worries about a market crash — here's what you should do<blockquote>Suze Orman担心市场崩盘——以下是您应该做的</blockquote>

2021-06-18

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2021-06-15

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2021-03-31

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2021-03-31

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2021-07-04

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Second-Half 2021: Market Forecasts, Thoughts and Observations<blockquote>2021年下半年：市场预测、思考与观察</blockquote>

2021-07-02

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2021年截至12月3日，录得机构净流入最高的20只股票的净买入总计为28亿新元，过去48周内的平均总回报率为32%，其中，有17只股票超过海峡时报指数13%的总回报率，19只股票超过富时亚太指数3%的总回报率。 在这20只股票28亿新元的净买入中，超过4亿新元是自9月30日以来录得，其中，有11只股票在过去九周内录得机构净流入，大华银行、星展银行和永科领涨其他股票。12月3日，永科创下5.29新元的新高，这使得其2021年截至12月3日的总回报率达到55%。 这20只股票涵盖过去48周内全球股票行业中表现较为强劲的部分行业，如银行、工业类REIT、农业和半导体，此外，还包括报业控股、胜科工业和凯德投资公司等一年来持续进行战略重组的股票。 2020年底收于近2,850点后，海峡时报指数全年呈上升趋势，在11月26日出现的Omicron变异毒株给全球股票基准带来冲击之前，于11月9日创下超过3,250的高点，这使得海峡时报指数达到目前接近3,100点的水平。海指今年录得13%的总回报率，而富时亚太指数的总回报率则为3%。2021年截至12月3日，超过300只新加坡上市股票录得机构净流入。过去48周内录得机构净买入最高的20只股票占这300只股票机构净流入总额的75%，星展银行、大华银行和报业控股领涨这20只股票。上述20只股票在过去48周内的平均总回报率为32%，其中，有17只股票超过海峡时报指数13%的总回报率，19只股票超过富时亚太指数3%的总回报率。这20只股票及它们在2021年截至12月3日的机构净流入（自9月30日以来的机构净流入/流出除外）如下表所示。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/D05.SI\">$星展集团控股(D05.SI)$&lt;</a>","listText":"本文章是新加坡交易所官方文章关于机构投资新加坡蓝筹股[财迷]&nbsp; 2021年截至12月3日，录得机构净流入最高的20只股票的净买入总计为28亿新元，过去48周内的平均总回报率为32%，其中，有17只股票超过海峡时报指数13%的总回报率，19只股票超过富时亚太指数3%的总回报率。 在这20只股票28亿新元的净买入中，超过4亿新元是自9月30日以来录得，其中，有11只股票在过去九周内录得机构净流入，大华银行、星展银行和永科领涨其他股票。12月3日，永科创下5.29新元的新高，这使得其2021年截至12月3日的总回报率达到55%。 这20只股票涵盖过去48周内全球股票行业中表现较为强劲的部分行业，如银行、工业类REIT、农业和半导体，此外，还包括报业控股、胜科工业和凯德投资公司等一年来持续进行战略重组的股票。 2020年底收于近2,850点后，海峡时报指数全年呈上升趋势，在11月26日出现的Omicron变异毒株给全球股票基准带来冲击之前，于11月9日创下超过3,250的高点，这使得海峡时报指数达到目前接近3,100点的水平。海指今年录得13%的总回报率，而富时亚太指数的总回报率则为3%。2021年截至12月3日，超过300只新加坡上市股票录得机构净流入。过去48周内录得机构净买入最高的20只股票占这300只股票机构净流入总额的75%，星展银行、大华银行和报业控股领涨这20只股票。上述20只股票在过去48周内的平均总回报率为32%，其中，有17只股票超过海峡时报指数13%的总回报率，19只股票超过富时亚太指数3%的总回报率。这20只股票及它们在2021年截至12月3日的机构净流入（自9月30日以来的机构净流入/流出除外）如下表所示。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/D05.SI\">$星展集团控股(D05.SI)$&lt;</a>","text":"本文章是新加坡交易所官方文章关于机构投资新加坡蓝筹股[财迷] 2021年截至12月3日，录得机构净流入最高的20只股票的净买入总计为28亿新元，过去48周内的平均总回报率为32%，其中，有17只股票超过海峡时报指数13%的总回报率，19只股票超过富时亚太指数3%的总回报率。 在这20只股票28亿新元的净买入中，超过4亿新元是自9月30日以来录得，其中，有11只股票在过去九周内录得机构净流入，大华银行、星展银行和永科领涨其他股票。12月3日，永科创下5.29新元的新高，这使得其2021年截至12月3日的总回报率达到55%。 这20只股票涵盖过去48周内全球股票行业中表现较为强劲的部分行业，如银行、工业类REIT、农业和半导体，此外，还包括报业控股、胜科工业和凯德投资公司等一年来持续进行战略重组的股票。 2020年底收于近2,850点后，海峡时报指数全年呈上升趋势，在11月26日出现的Omicron变异毒株给全球股票基准带来冲击之前，于11月9日创下超过3,250的高点，这使得海峡时报指数达到目前接近3,100点的水平。海指今年录得13%的总回报率，而富时亚太指数的总回报率则为3%。2021年截至12月3日，超过300只新加坡上市股票录得机构净流入。过去48周内录得机构净买入最高的20只股票占这300只股票机构净流入总额的75%，星展银行、大华银行和报业控股领涨这20只股票。上述20只股票在过去48周内的平均总回报率为32%，其中，有17只股票超过海峡时报指数13%的总回报率，19只股票超过富时亚太指数3%的总回报率。这20只股票及它们在2021年截至12月3日的机构净流入（自9月30日以来的机构净流入/流出除外）如下表所示。$星展集团控股(D05.SI)$<","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a5aa837cdedb0dc52e1e45932e716e7","width":"688","height":"486"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9724155d0def0ecd2771be6d26cc595","width":"688","height":"605"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2a7b421a702a2d30d42bf04035cf1f9","width":"688","height":"405"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607301269","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1530,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":601243152,"gmtCreate":1638539047798,"gmtModify":1638539047894,"author":{"id":"3576390362043433","authorId":"3576390362043433","name":"chelvi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6a8a4bf7a99f1ceb457affa9db3e865","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576390362043433","idStr":"3576390362043433"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good 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Inc.(AAIRF)$like a.dfeply","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21af45b253675062ce51507e7e8b6663","width":"1080","height":"3075"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/848782953","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1711,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":176860363,"gmtCreate":1626876342152,"gmtModify":1631890738289,"author":{"id":"3576390362043433","authorId":"3576390362043433","name":"chelvi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6a8a4bf7a99f1ceb457affa9db3e865","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576390362043433","idStr":"3576390362043433"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and share&nbsp;","listText":"Like and share&nbsp;","text":"Like and share","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/176860363","repostId":"1182009211","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1182009211","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1626876025,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1182009211?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-21 22:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Cryptocurrency-related stocks soar in morning trading<blockquote>加密货币相关股票早盘飙升</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182009211","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(July 21) Cryptocurrency-related stocks soar in morning trading. \nOn day after sliding below $30,000","content":"<p>(July 21)&nbsp;Cryptocurrency-related stocks soar in morning trading.&nbsp;</p><p><blockquote>（7月21日）加密货币相关股票早盘飙升。</blockquote></p><p> On day after sliding below $30,000, a key support level which many said has to hold, it did just that with bitcoin storming higher and back over $31,000.</p><p><blockquote>在跌破30,000美元（许多人认为必须守住的关键支撑位）后的第二天，随着比特币飙升并回到31,000美元上方，它就做到了这一点。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96ba84b633e0ac3f409f8c463cd88beb\" tg-width=\"310\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1ff2661c20fa3335bbd359f86b5e594\" tg-width=\"687\" tg-height=\"733\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Cryptocurrency-related stocks soar in morning trading<blockquote>加密货币相关股票早盘飙升</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; 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left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCryptocurrency-related stocks soar in morning trading<blockquote>加密货币相关股票早盘飙升</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-21 22:00</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(July 21)&nbsp;Cryptocurrency-related stocks soar in morning trading.&nbsp;</p><p><blockquote>（7月21日）加密货币相关股票早盘飙升。</blockquote></p><p> On day after sliding below $30,000, a key support level which many said has to hold, it did just that with bitcoin storming higher and back over $31,000.</p><p><blockquote>在跌破30,000美元（许多人认为必须守住的关键支撑位）后的第二天，随着比特币飙升并回到31,000美元上方，它就做到了这一点。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96ba84b633e0ac3f409f8c463cd88beb\" tg-width=\"310\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1ff2661c20fa3335bbd359f86b5e594\" tg-width=\"687\" tg-height=\"733\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182009211","content_text":"(July 21) Cryptocurrency-related stocks soar in morning trading. \nOn day after sliding below $30,000, a key support level which many said has to hold, it did just that with bitcoin storming higher and back over $31,000.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1674,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":176884297,"gmtCreate":1626876301019,"gmtModify":1631890738292,"author":{"id":"3576390362043433","authorId":"3576390362043433","name":"chelvi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6a8a4bf7a99f1ceb457affa9db3e865","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576390362043433","idStr":"3576390362043433"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/176884297","repostId":"1151816705","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151816705","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1626875217,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1151816705?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-21 21:46","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Energy stocks gain in morning trading<blockquote>能源股早盘上涨</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151816705","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(July 21) Energy stocks gain in morning trading, Futures of Brent crude oil climbed over 2% to $68.9","content":"<p>(July 21)&nbsp;Energy stocks gain in morning trading,&nbsp;Futures of Brent crude oil climbed over 2% to $68.98 a barrel.</p><p><blockquote>（7月21日）能源股早盘上涨，布伦特原油期货攀升逾2%，至每桶68.98美元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34e146a311ad98f1b9fce2ecc76f97e9\" tg-width=\"303\" tg-height=\"205\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21b102daa173644cf1279b33fee9c41a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1868\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Energy stocks gain in morning trading<blockquote>能源股早盘上涨</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEnergy stocks gain in morning trading<blockquote>能源股早盘上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-21 21:46</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(July 21)&nbsp;Energy stocks gain in morning trading,&nbsp;Futures of Brent crude oil climbed over 2% to $68.98 a barrel.</p><p><blockquote>（7月21日）能源股早盘上涨，布伦特原油期货攀升逾2%，至每桶68.98美元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34e146a311ad98f1b9fce2ecc76f97e9\" tg-width=\"303\" tg-height=\"205\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21b102daa173644cf1279b33fee9c41a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1868\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80c13588f559343a96ce06d72d3cf4d5","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151816705","content_text":"(July 21) Energy stocks gain in morning trading, Futures of Brent crude oil climbed over 2% to $68.98 a barrel.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1527,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":155065934,"gmtCreate":1625364474028,"gmtModify":1631890738294,"author":{"id":"3576390362043433","authorId":"3576390362043433","name":"chelvi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6a8a4bf7a99f1ceb457affa9db3e865","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576390362043433","idStr":"3576390362043433"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/155065934","repostId":"2148282805","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2382,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":155062183,"gmtCreate":1625364447242,"gmtModify":1631890738296,"author":{"id":"3576390362043433","authorId":"3576390362043433","name":"chelvi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6a8a4bf7a99f1ceb457affa9db3e865","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576390362043433","idStr":"3576390362043433"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and share&nbsp;","listText":"Like and share&nbsp;","text":"Like and share","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/155062183","repostId":"1104835932","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104835932","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625276444,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1104835932?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-03 09:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Taiwan Semiconductor Is Ripe for Entry: Here's How I'm Playing It<blockquote>台积电进入的时机已经成熟：我是这样玩的</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104835932","media":"The Street","summary":"I've been hot for the semis for a good while now because of the widely covered shortages that are creating significant pricing power.Thinking about... Taiwan Semiconductor  . Taiwan Semiconductor reports Q2 financial performance in two weeks, on July 16th. Currently, Wall Street is looking for EPS of $0.93, without much divergence in opinion. This name is not as highly followed across the community of analysts. I can only find four analysts that have gone as far as to make quarterly projections,","content":"<p>  <i>I've been hot for the semis for a good while now because of the widely covered shortages that are creating significant pricing power.</i>  Thinking about... Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) . Taiwan Semiconductor reports Q2 financial performance in two weeks, on July 16th. Currently, Wall Street is looking for EPS of $0.93, without much divergence in opinion. This name is not as highly followed across the community of analysts. I can only find four analysts that have gone as far as to make quarterly projections, six that have made annual projections, and just two that have really stuck their necks out and stated a price target at any point in the past six months.</p><p><blockquote><i>我对半决赛很感兴趣已经有一段时间了，因为广泛覆盖的短缺创造了巨大的定价权。</i>思考...台积电(TSM)。台积电将于7月16日公布两周后的第二季度财务业绩。目前，华尔街预计每股收益为0.93美元，意见没有太大分歧。这个名字在整个分析师群体中并没有得到很高的关注。我只能找到四位分析师做出了季度预测，六位分析师做出了年度预测，只有两位分析师在过去六个月的任何时候真正竭尽全力并提出了价格目标。</blockquote></p><p> The range of EPS expectations for Q2 EPS for TSM, across those four analysts is just $0.91 to $0.95. Wall Street is looking for approximately $13.2 billion in revenue generation for the quarter, which would be year over year sales growth of about 27%. This would be an acceleration in sales growth for a second consecutive quarter.</p><p><blockquote>这四位分析师对TSM第二季度每股收益的预期范围仅为0.91美元至0.95美元。华尔街预计本季度收入约为132亿美元，销售额同比增长约27%。这将是销售额连续第二个季度加速增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>This Week</b></p><p><blockquote><b>本周</b></blockquote></p><p> It was Tuesday. DigiTimes reports that Taiwan Semiconductor is expected to record record revenues for June, due to shipments of iPhones showing up in the data. Apparently, reduced purchases by client Bitmain, as China bans Bitcoin mining had not taken the toll on TSM sales as some had expected. Demand for 5nm and 7nm processors had offset the loss of that mining business as the firm shipped chips for Apple's (AAPL) smartphones in time to appear in June's numbers. The expectation is that the firm stays on course for 20% sales growth for the fiscal year, and that June could be flat from May (which is a good thing).</p><p><blockquote>那天是星期二。DigiTimes报道称，由于数据中显示了iPhones的出货量，台积电预计将在6月份创下创纪录的收入。显然，由于中国禁止比特币矿业，客户比特大陆的购买量减少并没有像一些人预期的那样对TSM的销售造成影响。对5纳米和7纳米处理器的需求抵消了采矿业务的损失，因为该公司及时为苹果(AAPL)智能手机发货芯片，并出现在6月份的数据中。预计该公司本财年销售额将保持20%的增长，6月份可能与5月份持平（这是一件好事）。</blockquote></p><p> Early this (Friday) morning, news broke that Apple and Intel (INTC) will be the first customers to test TSM's 3nm production technology, which if all goes well, deploys toward the back half of 2022. Nikkei Asia reports that Intel is planning at least two projects to design CPUs for notebooks and data centers around the new 3nm chips.</p><p><blockquote>本周五凌晨，有消息称苹果和英特尔(INTC)将成为首批测试TSM 3nm生产技术的客户，如果一切顺利，该技术将于2022年下半年部署。《日经亚洲》报道称，英特尔正在计划至少两个项目，围绕新的3纳米芯片为笔记本电脑和数据中心设计CPU。</blockquote></p><p> Just a quick tutorial. TSM's 5nm chips are the most advanced chips available and if you have an iPhone 12, you have one of these chips. TSM is indicating that the new 3nm chips will offer a 10% to 15% boost to computing performance compared to the current 5nm product, while also reducing power consumption by 25% to 30%.</p><p><blockquote>只是一个快速教程。TSM的5纳米芯片是最先进的芯片，如果你有iPhone 12，你就有其中一个芯片。TSM表示，与当前的5纳米产品相比，新的3纳米芯片将使计算性能提高10%至15%，同时功耗还将降低25%至30%。</blockquote></p><p> As an aside, Intel announced the delay of the Sapphire Rapids data center processor earlier this week. While this is seen around Wall Street as yet another chance for Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) , and even Nvidia (NVDA) , to tackle even more market share away from the lumbering giant, but also makes at least this investor wonder just how Intel thinks they are going to get to a point anytime soon where they can compete with the likes of Taiwan Semiconductor as a global foundry to other chip designers.</p><p><blockquote>顺便说一句，英特尔本周早些时候宣布了Sapphire Rapids数据中心处理器的延迟。虽然这被华尔街视为Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)甚至英伟达(NVDA)从这家笨重的巨头手中夺取更多市场份额的又一次机会，但这也至少让这位投资者想知道英特尔如何认为他们很快就会达到可以与台积电等公司竞争的地步，成为其他芯片设计公司的全球代工厂。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wall Street</b></p><p><blockquote><b>华尔街</b></blockquote></p><p> Of those few analysts that I mentioned who actually cover the name, only one reacted to this news. Susquehanna's five star (rated at TipRanks) analyst Mehdi Hosseini upgraded the name from \"Negative\" to \"Neutral\", while upping his target price from $85 to $105. The only other analyst with a recent target price is Jim Kelleher of Argus Research (also five stars). Kelleher initiated the name a week earlier as a \"Buy\" with a $150 target.</p><p><blockquote>在我提到的几位实际报道该名字的分析师中，只有一位对此消息做出了反应。Susquehanna的五星级（TipRanks评级）分析师Mehdi Hosseini将该名称从“负面”上调至“中性”，同时将目标价从85美元上调至105美元。最近唯一有目标价的分析师是Argus Research的Jim Kelleher（也是五星）。凯莱赫(Kelleher)一周前首次将该名称定为“买入”，目标价为150美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Chart</b></p><p><blockquote><b>图表</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19c41db815e4b2cbbc0f31979123e544\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Readers will see that in late April, these shares managed to turn a descending triangle (which is a bearish pattern) into a flat basing pattern without ever allowing the triangle to close. Since bottoming, TSM has retaken both the 21 day EMA and the 50 day SMA, using the former as support on weakness just yesterday.</p><p><blockquote>读者会看到，在4月下旬，这些股票成功地将下降三角形（这是一种看跌模式）转变为平基模式，而没有让三角形闭合。自触底以来，TSM已重新夺回21日均线和50日均线，并将前者作为昨天疲软的支撑。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Plan</b></p><p><blockquote><b>计划</b></blockquote></p><p> Regular followers well know that I have been hot for the semis for a good while now, in spite of, or rather because of the widely covered shortages that are creating significant pricing power.</p><p><blockquote>经常关注的人都知道，我对半决赛的渴望已经有一段时间了，尽管，或者更确切地说，是因为广泛报道的短缺创造了巨大的定价权。</blockquote></p><p> I am already long AMD, and Marvell Technology (MRVL) , both of whom have been solid investments. I am long Micron (MU) , which looked good until this week. I am long Nvidia which has simply been epic.</p><p><blockquote>我已经做多AMD和Marvell Technology(MRVL)，这两家公司都是可靠的投资。我是长微米（MU），直到本周看起来还不错。我做多英伟达，这简直是史诗般的。</blockquote></p><p> I am also long semiconductor equipment names... Applied Materials (AMAT) , and Brooks Automation (BRKS) , two names that have been good, and meh, respectively. I probably have room for a large foundry that will probably make short work of Intel (my opinion) once Intel tries to move in on their business.</p><p><blockquote>我也是长半导体设备名……应用材料公司（AMAT）和布鲁克斯自动化公司（BRKS），这两个名字一直很好，分别是meh。我可能有一个大型代工厂的空间，一旦英特尔试图进入他们的业务，他们可能会很快与英特尔合作（我的观点）。</blockquote></p><p> I think TSM is ripe for entry, perhaps to the tune of 1/8 of intended position size. I would expect to add a second tranche of 1/8 at either a test of the 21 day EMA or a retaking of the $122 level, which is our pivot. Our target price upon taking that pivot will be $144, while for now (after purchasing these shares), I will go with a panic point of $110 (8% discount to initial entry).</p><p><blockquote>我认为TSM进入的时机已经成熟，也许是预期头寸规模的1/8。我预计在测试21日均线或夺回122美元水平时增加第二笔1/8，这是我们的支点。我们采取这一支点后的目标价将为144美元，而目前（购买这些股票后），我将选择110美元的恐慌点（初始入场折扣8%）。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610613172068","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Taiwan Semiconductor Is Ripe for Entry: Here's How I'm Playing It<blockquote>台积电进入的时机已经成熟：我是这样玩的</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTaiwan Semiconductor Is Ripe for Entry: Here's How I'm Playing It<blockquote>台积电进入的时机已经成熟：我是这样玩的</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Street</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-03 09:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <i>I've been hot for the semis for a good while now because of the widely covered shortages that are creating significant pricing power.</i>  Thinking about... Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) . Taiwan Semiconductor reports Q2 financial performance in two weeks, on July 16th. Currently, Wall Street is looking for EPS of $0.93, without much divergence in opinion. This name is not as highly followed across the community of analysts. I can only find four analysts that have gone as far as to make quarterly projections, six that have made annual projections, and just two that have really stuck their necks out and stated a price target at any point in the past six months.</p><p><blockquote><i>我对半决赛很感兴趣已经有一段时间了，因为广泛覆盖的短缺创造了巨大的定价权。</i>思考...台积电(TSM)。台积电将于7月16日公布两周后的第二季度财务业绩。目前，华尔街预计每股收益为0.93美元，意见没有太大分歧。这个名字在整个分析师群体中并没有得到很高的关注。我只能找到四位分析师做出了季度预测，六位分析师做出了年度预测，只有两位分析师在过去六个月的任何时候真正竭尽全力并提出了价格目标。</blockquote></p><p> The range of EPS expectations for Q2 EPS for TSM, across those four analysts is just $0.91 to $0.95. Wall Street is looking for approximately $13.2 billion in revenue generation for the quarter, which would be year over year sales growth of about 27%. This would be an acceleration in sales growth for a second consecutive quarter.</p><p><blockquote>这四位分析师对TSM第二季度每股收益的预期范围仅为0.91美元至0.95美元。华尔街预计本季度收入约为132亿美元，销售额同比增长约27%。这将是销售额连续第二个季度加速增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>This Week</b></p><p><blockquote><b>本周</b></blockquote></p><p> It was Tuesday. DigiTimes reports that Taiwan Semiconductor is expected to record record revenues for June, due to shipments of iPhones showing up in the data. Apparently, reduced purchases by client Bitmain, as China bans Bitcoin mining had not taken the toll on TSM sales as some had expected. Demand for 5nm and 7nm processors had offset the loss of that mining business as the firm shipped chips for Apple's (AAPL) smartphones in time to appear in June's numbers. The expectation is that the firm stays on course for 20% sales growth for the fiscal year, and that June could be flat from May (which is a good thing).</p><p><blockquote>那天是星期二。DigiTimes报道称，由于数据中显示了iPhones的出货量，台积电预计将在6月份创下创纪录的收入。显然，由于中国禁止比特币矿业，客户比特大陆的购买量减少并没有像一些人预期的那样对TSM的销售造成影响。对5纳米和7纳米处理器的需求抵消了采矿业务的损失，因为该公司及时为苹果(AAPL)智能手机发货芯片，并出现在6月份的数据中。预计该公司本财年销售额将保持20%的增长，6月份可能与5月份持平（这是一件好事）。</blockquote></p><p> Early this (Friday) morning, news broke that Apple and Intel (INTC) will be the first customers to test TSM's 3nm production technology, which if all goes well, deploys toward the back half of 2022. Nikkei Asia reports that Intel is planning at least two projects to design CPUs for notebooks and data centers around the new 3nm chips.</p><p><blockquote>本周五凌晨，有消息称苹果和英特尔(INTC)将成为首批测试TSM 3nm生产技术的客户，如果一切顺利，该技术将于2022年下半年部署。《日经亚洲》报道称，英特尔正在计划至少两个项目，围绕新的3纳米芯片为笔记本电脑和数据中心设计CPU。</blockquote></p><p> Just a quick tutorial. TSM's 5nm chips are the most advanced chips available and if you have an iPhone 12, you have one of these chips. TSM is indicating that the new 3nm chips will offer a 10% to 15% boost to computing performance compared to the current 5nm product, while also reducing power consumption by 25% to 30%.</p><p><blockquote>只是一个快速教程。TSM的5纳米芯片是最先进的芯片，如果你有iPhone 12，你就有其中一个芯片。TSM表示，与当前的5纳米产品相比，新的3纳米芯片将使计算性能提高10%至15%，同时功耗还将降低25%至30%。</blockquote></p><p> As an aside, Intel announced the delay of the Sapphire Rapids data center processor earlier this week. While this is seen around Wall Street as yet another chance for Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) , and even Nvidia (NVDA) , to tackle even more market share away from the lumbering giant, but also makes at least this investor wonder just how Intel thinks they are going to get to a point anytime soon where they can compete with the likes of Taiwan Semiconductor as a global foundry to other chip designers.</p><p><blockquote>顺便说一句，英特尔本周早些时候宣布了Sapphire Rapids数据中心处理器的延迟。虽然这被华尔街视为Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)甚至英伟达(NVDA)从这家笨重的巨头手中夺取更多市场份额的又一次机会，但这也至少让这位投资者想知道英特尔如何认为他们很快就会达到可以与台积电等公司竞争的地步，成为其他芯片设计公司的全球代工厂。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wall Street</b></p><p><blockquote><b>华尔街</b></blockquote></p><p> Of those few analysts that I mentioned who actually cover the name, only one reacted to this news. Susquehanna's five star (rated at TipRanks) analyst Mehdi Hosseini upgraded the name from \"Negative\" to \"Neutral\", while upping his target price from $85 to $105. The only other analyst with a recent target price is Jim Kelleher of Argus Research (also five stars). Kelleher initiated the name a week earlier as a \"Buy\" with a $150 target.</p><p><blockquote>在我提到的几位实际报道该名字的分析师中，只有一位对此消息做出了反应。Susquehanna的五星级（TipRanks评级）分析师Mehdi Hosseini将该名称从“负面”上调至“中性”，同时将目标价从85美元上调至105美元。最近唯一有目标价的分析师是Argus Research的Jim Kelleher（也是五星）。凯莱赫(Kelleher)一周前首次将该名称定为“买入”，目标价为150美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Chart</b></p><p><blockquote><b>图表</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19c41db815e4b2cbbc0f31979123e544\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Readers will see that in late April, these shares managed to turn a descending triangle (which is a bearish pattern) into a flat basing pattern without ever allowing the triangle to close. Since bottoming, TSM has retaken both the 21 day EMA and the 50 day SMA, using the former as support on weakness just yesterday.</p><p><blockquote>读者会看到，在4月下旬，这些股票成功地将下降三角形（这是一种看跌模式）转变为平基模式，而没有让三角形闭合。自触底以来，TSM已重新夺回21日均线和50日均线，并将前者作为昨天疲软的支撑。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Plan</b></p><p><blockquote><b>计划</b></blockquote></p><p> Regular followers well know that I have been hot for the semis for a good while now, in spite of, or rather because of the widely covered shortages that are creating significant pricing power.</p><p><blockquote>经常关注的人都知道，我对半决赛的渴望已经有一段时间了，尽管，或者更确切地说，是因为广泛报道的短缺创造了巨大的定价权。</blockquote></p><p> I am already long AMD, and Marvell Technology (MRVL) , both of whom have been solid investments. I am long Micron (MU) , which looked good until this week. I am long Nvidia which has simply been epic.</p><p><blockquote>我已经做多AMD和Marvell Technology(MRVL)，这两家公司都是可靠的投资。我是长微米（MU），直到本周看起来还不错。我做多英伟达，这简直是史诗般的。</blockquote></p><p> I am also long semiconductor equipment names... Applied Materials (AMAT) , and Brooks Automation (BRKS) , two names that have been good, and meh, respectively. I probably have room for a large foundry that will probably make short work of Intel (my opinion) once Intel tries to move in on their business.</p><p><blockquote>我也是长半导体设备名……应用材料公司（AMAT）和布鲁克斯自动化公司（BRKS），这两个名字一直很好，分别是meh。我可能有一个大型代工厂的空间，一旦英特尔试图进入他们的业务，他们可能会很快与英特尔合作（我的观点）。</blockquote></p><p> I think TSM is ripe for entry, perhaps to the tune of 1/8 of intended position size. I would expect to add a second tranche of 1/8 at either a test of the 21 day EMA or a retaking of the $122 level, which is our pivot. Our target price upon taking that pivot will be $144, while for now (after purchasing these shares), I will go with a panic point of $110 (8% discount to initial entry).</p><p><blockquote>我认为TSM进入的时机已经成熟，也许是预期头寸规模的1/8。我预计在测试21日均线或夺回122美元水平时增加第二笔1/8，这是我们的支点。我们采取这一支点后的目标价将为144美元，而目前（购买这些股票后），我将选择110美元的恐慌点（初始入场折扣8%）。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/taiwan-semiconductor-is-ripe-for-entry-here-s-how-i-m-playing-it-15702133?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO\">The Street</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MRVL":"迈威尔科技","INTC":"英特尔","TSM":"台积电","AMAT":"应用材料","AAPL":"苹果","MU":"美光科技","NVDA":"英伟达","AMD":"美国超微公司"},"source_url":"https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/taiwan-semiconductor-is-ripe-for-entry-here-s-how-i-m-playing-it-15702133?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1104835932","content_text":"I've been hot for the semis for a good while now because of the widely covered shortages that are creating significant pricing power.\n\nThinking about... Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) . Taiwan Semiconductor reports Q2 financial performance in two weeks, on July 16th. Currently, Wall Street is looking for EPS of $0.93, without much divergence in opinion. This name is not as highly followed across the community of analysts. I can only find four analysts that have gone as far as to make quarterly projections, six that have made annual projections, and just two that have really stuck their necks out and stated a price target at any point in the past six months.\nThe range of EPS expectations for Q2 EPS for TSM, across those four analysts is just $0.91 to $0.95. Wall Street is looking for approximately $13.2 billion in revenue generation for the quarter, which would be year over year sales growth of about 27%. This would be an acceleration in sales growth for a second consecutive quarter.\nThis Week\nIt was Tuesday. DigiTimes reports that Taiwan Semiconductor is expected to record record revenues for June, due to shipments of iPhones showing up in the data. Apparently, reduced purchases by client Bitmain, as China bans Bitcoin mining had not taken the toll on TSM sales as some had expected. Demand for 5nm and 7nm processors had offset the loss of that mining business as the firm shipped chips for Apple's (AAPL) smartphones in time to appear in June's numbers. The expectation is that the firm stays on course for 20% sales growth for the fiscal year, and that June could be flat from May (which is a good thing).\nEarly this (Friday) morning, news broke that Apple and Intel (INTC) will be the first customers to test TSM's 3nm production technology, which if all goes well, deploys toward the back half of 2022. Nikkei Asia reports that Intel is planning at least two projects to design CPUs for notebooks and data centers around the new 3nm chips.\nJust a quick tutorial. TSM's 5nm chips are the most advanced chips available and if you have an iPhone 12, you have one of these chips. TSM is indicating that the new 3nm chips will offer a 10% to 15% boost to computing performance compared to the current 5nm product, while also reducing power consumption by 25% to 30%.\nAs an aside, Intel announced the delay of the Sapphire Rapids data center processor earlier this week. While this is seen around Wall Street as yet another chance for Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) , and even Nvidia (NVDA) , to tackle even more market share away from the lumbering giant, but also makes at least this investor wonder just how Intel thinks they are going to get to a point anytime soon where they can compete with the likes of Taiwan Semiconductor as a global foundry to other chip designers.\nWall Street\nOf those few analysts that I mentioned who actually cover the name, only one reacted to this news. Susquehanna's five star (rated at TipRanks) analyst Mehdi Hosseini upgraded the name from \"Negative\" to \"Neutral\", while upping his target price from $85 to $105. The only other analyst with a recent target price is Jim Kelleher of Argus Research (also five stars). Kelleher initiated the name a week earlier as a \"Buy\" with a $150 target.\nThe Chart\n\nReaders will see that in late April, these shares managed to turn a descending triangle (which is a bearish pattern) into a flat basing pattern without ever allowing the triangle to close. Since bottoming, TSM has retaken both the 21 day EMA and the 50 day SMA, using the former as support on weakness just yesterday.\nThe Plan\nRegular followers well know that I have been hot for the semis for a good while now, in spite of, or rather because of the widely covered shortages that are creating significant pricing power.\nI am already long AMD, and Marvell Technology (MRVL) , both of whom have been solid investments. I am long Micron (MU) , which looked good until this week. I am long Nvidia which has simply been epic.\nI am also long semiconductor equipment names... Applied Materials (AMAT) , and Brooks Automation (BRKS) , two names that have been good, and meh, respectively. I probably have room for a large foundry that will probably make short work of Intel (my opinion) once Intel tries to move in on their business.\nI think TSM is ripe for entry, perhaps to the tune of 1/8 of intended position size. I would expect to add a second tranche of 1/8 at either a test of the 21 day EMA or a retaking of the $122 level, which is our pivot. Our target price upon taking that pivot will be $144, while for now (after purchasing these shares), I will go with a panic point of $110 (8% discount to initial entry).","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9,"BRKS":0.9,"MRVL":0.9,"MU":0.9,"TSM":0.9,"AMD":0.9,"INTC":0.9,"AMAT":0.9,"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1596,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":155068419,"gmtCreate":1625364410431,"gmtModify":1631890738301,"author":{"id":"3576390362043433","authorId":"3576390362043433","name":"chelvi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6a8a4bf7a99f1ceb457affa9db3e865","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576390362043433","idStr":"3576390362043433"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and share&nbsp;","listText":"Like and share&nbsp;","text":"Like and share","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/155068419","repostId":"1171891885","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1171891885","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625276733,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1171891885?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-03 09:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"5 wise money moves before the Fed starts raising interest rates again<blockquote>美联储再次开始加息前的5项明智资金举措</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171891885","media":"MoneyWise","summary":"Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell (pictured) and his colleagues have said the central bank will","content":"<p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell (pictured) and his colleagues have said the central bank will keep its benchmark interest rate near zero for the time being, despite gains made by the U.S. economy in recent months.</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（如图）及其同事表示，尽管美国经济近几个月有所增长，但美联储将暂时将基准利率维持在接近零的水平。</blockquote></p><p> But rates won’t stay low forever. As the economy recovers from the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation is rising and more people are getting back to work. This has led the Fed to indicate a rate hike could come as soon as 2023 — moved up from its previous plan to wait until 2024.</p><p><blockquote>但利率不会永远保持在低位。随着经济从COVID-19大流行最严重的时期中复苏，通货膨胀正在上升，更多的人正在重返工作岗位。这导致美联储表示最早可能在2023年加息——高于此前等到2024年的计划。</blockquote></p><p> For consumers, that means now may be the time tosplurge on a fun purchaseor take out a loan for something they need.</p><p><blockquote>对于消费者来说，这意味着现在可能是花钱购买有趣的买家或贷款购买他们需要的东西的时候了。</blockquote></p><p> Here are five money moves you should make before rates rise.</p><p><blockquote>以下是您在利率上升之前应该采取的五项资金举措。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Refinance your home loan</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为您的房屋贷款再融资</b></blockquote></p><p> Mortgage rates fell to record-breaking lows during the pandemic, but they’re slowly creeping up as the economy continues to recover from COVID-19.</p><p><blockquote>在疫情期间，抵押贷款利率跌至创纪录低点，但随着经济继续从COVID-19中复苏，抵押贷款利率正在缓慢上升。</blockquote></p><p> While rates are currently at historically low levels, experts predict they will rise to 4% this year — which means now's the time to act if you’ve been mulling a refinance.</p><p><blockquote>虽然利率目前处于历史低位，但专家预测今年将升至4%——这意味着如果您一直在考虑再融资，现在是采取行动的时候了。</blockquote></p><p> An estimated 14.1 million Americans have the opportunity to refi andsave an average $287 a month, according to recent research from mortgage technology and data provider Black Knight.</p><p><blockquote>根据抵押贷款技术和数据提供商Black Knight最近的研究，估计有1410万美国人有机会进行再融资，平均每月节省287美元。</blockquote></p><p> Alternatively, rising house prices offer homeowners an opportunity to leverage their home equity to fund home improvement projects, pay down debt or cover their children’s education funds.</p><p><blockquote>或者，房价上涨为房主提供了利用房屋净值为家居装修项目提供资金、偿还债务或支付孩子教育资金的机会。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Consolidate your debt</b></p><p><blockquote><b>合并您的债务</b></blockquote></p><p> The pandemic made it difficult for Americans to travel, eat in restaurants or spend on retail purchases, and many used the money they didn't spend on those activities to increase their savings and pay down debt.</p><p><blockquote>疫情使美国人难以旅行、在餐馆吃饭或进行零售购物，许多人用他们没有花在这些活动上的钱来增加储蓄和偿还债务。</blockquote></p><p> The number of consumers who paid off their credit card balances in full every month reached an all-time high of 35.1% late last year, according to a report from the American Bankers Association.</p><p><blockquote>根据美国银行家协会的一份报告，去年年底，每月全额还清信用卡余额的消费者数量达到了35.1%的历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> Still, many households are struggling to make ends meet. And, with unemployment benefits ending in many states across the country, those still out of work or living on reduced incomes may have had to give up their debt repayment plans to focus on immediate needs.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，许多家庭仍在努力维持生计。而且，随着全国许多州失业救济金的结束，那些仍然失业或收入减少的人可能不得不放弃债务偿还计划，专注于眼前的需求。</blockquote></p><p> If you’ve been relying on your credit cards to carry you through, the expensive interest is going to add up quickly.</p><p><blockquote>如果你一直依靠信用卡度过难关，昂贵的利息会很快增加。</blockquote></p><p> For those who can’t borrow from their home equity to pay off card balances, adebt consolidation loancould help you get rid of debt sooner and save you a ton on expensive interest.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些无法从房屋净值中借款来偿还卡余额的人来说，债务合并贷款可以帮助您更快摆脱债务，并为您节省大量昂贵的利息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Work on your credit score</b></p><p><blockquote><b>提高您的信用评分</b></blockquote></p><p> While today's low rates make it easier to take out loans, you'll find it more expensive to borrow when rates do go up.</p><p><blockquote>虽然今天的低利率使贷款变得更容易，但当利率上升时，你会发现借贷成本更高。</blockquote></p><p> Today, it's easy to take afree peek at your credit score. So now’s the time to work on improving that score to ensure you’ll continue to be able to borrow at the lowest-possible rates.</p><p><blockquote>今天，很容易免费查看您的信用评分。因此，现在是时候努力提高该分数，以确保您能够继续以尽可能低的利率借款。</blockquote></p><p> Boosting your credit scorea few hundred pointswill make you a more attractive borrower to all types of lenders – from credit-card issuers to those offering mortgages.</p><p><blockquote>将您的信用评分提高几百分将使您成为对所有类型贷方（从信用卡发卡机构到提供抵押贷款的机构）更具吸引力的借款人。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Refinance your student loans</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为您的学生贷款再融资</b></blockquote></p><p> Federal student loan payments are paused until October but some prominent Democratic lawmakers, including Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, are pushing the president to provide more relief for borrowers and forgive up to $50,000 per person.</p><p><blockquote>联邦学生贷款支付暂停至10月份，但包括参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦(Elizabeth Warren)和参议院多数党领袖查克·舒默(Chuck Schumer)在内的一些著名民主党议员正在敦促总统为借款人提供更多救济，并免除每人最多5万美元。</blockquote></p><p> But those with debt from private student loans are still on the hook for their regular monthly minimum payments.</p><p><blockquote>但那些背负私人学生贷款债务的人仍然需要支付每月最低还款额。</blockquote></p><p> If you're one of those borrowers, refinancing to a lower rate or shorter term could save you thousands in interest fees and shave years off your debt.</p><p><blockquote>如果您是这些借款人之一，以较低利率或较短期限进行再融资可以为您节省数千美元的利息费用，并减少数年的债务。</blockquote></p><p> According to online loan marketplace, Credible, refinancing could slash your interest rate by more than 2 full percentage points and add up to substantial interest savings over the life of the loan.</p><p><blockquote>根据在线贷款市场，可信，再融资可以削减你的利率超过2个百分点，并在贷款期限内节省大量利息。</blockquote></p><p> To maximize your savings,compare loan offers from multiple lendersto lock in the lowest refinance rate possible.</p><p><blockquote>为了最大限度地提高您的储蓄，请比较多个贷方的贷款报价，以锁定尽可能低的再融资利率。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ride the red-hot stock market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>驾驭火热的股市</b></blockquote></p><p> Current low interest rates mean you won't earn much if you put money in a savings account. If you’ve got the appetite to take on a bit more risk, you could consider putting your money in investments.</p><p><blockquote>目前的低利率意味着如果你把钱存入储蓄账户，你赚不了多少钱。如果您愿意承担更多风险，您可以考虑将资金投入投资。</blockquote></p><p> Even if you don’t have much to put aside, you can download a popular app that allows you toinvest with your “spare change”, and turn your pennies into a diversified portfolio.</p><p><blockquote>即使你没有太多钱可以存，你也可以下载一个流行的应用程序，让你用你的“零钱”进行投资，把你的便士变成一个多元化的投资组合。</blockquote></p><p> Or, if you’re still apprehensive about the stock market, you could look intoinvesting in farmland. This stable, profitable asset has been known to offer better returns than real estate and stocks, according to data from the investing platform FarmTogether.</p><p><blockquote>或者，如果您仍然对股市感到担忧，您可以考虑投资农田。根据投资平台FarmTogether的数据，众所周知，这种稳定、盈利的资产比房地产和股票提供更好的回报。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1621813427262","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5 wise money moves before the Fed starts raising interest rates again<blockquote>美联储再次开始加息前的5项明智资金举措</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5 wise money moves before the Fed starts raising interest rates again<blockquote>美联储再次开始加息前的5项明智资金举措</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MoneyWise</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-03 09:45</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell (pictured) and his colleagues have said the central bank will keep its benchmark interest rate near zero for the time being, despite gains made by the U.S. economy in recent months.</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（如图）及其同事表示，尽管美国经济近几个月有所增长，但美联储将暂时将基准利率维持在接近零的水平。</blockquote></p><p> But rates won’t stay low forever. As the economy recovers from the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation is rising and more people are getting back to work. This has led the Fed to indicate a rate hike could come as soon as 2023 — moved up from its previous plan to wait until 2024.</p><p><blockquote>但利率不会永远保持在低位。随着经济从COVID-19大流行最严重的时期中复苏，通货膨胀正在上升，更多的人正在重返工作岗位。这导致美联储表示最早可能在2023年加息——高于此前等到2024年的计划。</blockquote></p><p> For consumers, that means now may be the time tosplurge on a fun purchaseor take out a loan for something they need.</p><p><blockquote>对于消费者来说，这意味着现在可能是花钱购买有趣的买家或贷款购买他们需要的东西的时候了。</blockquote></p><p> Here are five money moves you should make before rates rise.</p><p><blockquote>以下是您在利率上升之前应该采取的五项资金举措。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Refinance your home loan</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为您的房屋贷款再融资</b></blockquote></p><p> Mortgage rates fell to record-breaking lows during the pandemic, but they’re slowly creeping up as the economy continues to recover from COVID-19.</p><p><blockquote>在疫情期间，抵押贷款利率跌至创纪录低点，但随着经济继续从COVID-19中复苏，抵押贷款利率正在缓慢上升。</blockquote></p><p> While rates are currently at historically low levels, experts predict they will rise to 4% this year — which means now's the time to act if you’ve been mulling a refinance.</p><p><blockquote>虽然利率目前处于历史低位，但专家预测今年将升至4%——这意味着如果您一直在考虑再融资，现在是采取行动的时候了。</blockquote></p><p> An estimated 14.1 million Americans have the opportunity to refi andsave an average $287 a month, according to recent research from mortgage technology and data provider Black Knight.</p><p><blockquote>根据抵押贷款技术和数据提供商Black Knight最近的研究，估计有1410万美国人有机会进行再融资，平均每月节省287美元。</blockquote></p><p> Alternatively, rising house prices offer homeowners an opportunity to leverage their home equity to fund home improvement projects, pay down debt or cover their children’s education funds.</p><p><blockquote>或者，房价上涨为房主提供了利用房屋净值为家居装修项目提供资金、偿还债务或支付孩子教育资金的机会。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Consolidate your debt</b></p><p><blockquote><b>合并您的债务</b></blockquote></p><p> The pandemic made it difficult for Americans to travel, eat in restaurants or spend on retail purchases, and many used the money they didn't spend on those activities to increase their savings and pay down debt.</p><p><blockquote>疫情使美国人难以旅行、在餐馆吃饭或进行零售购物，许多人用他们没有花在这些活动上的钱来增加储蓄和偿还债务。</blockquote></p><p> The number of consumers who paid off their credit card balances in full every month reached an all-time high of 35.1% late last year, according to a report from the American Bankers Association.</p><p><blockquote>根据美国银行家协会的一份报告，去年年底，每月全额还清信用卡余额的消费者数量达到了35.1%的历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> Still, many households are struggling to make ends meet. And, with unemployment benefits ending in many states across the country, those still out of work or living on reduced incomes may have had to give up their debt repayment plans to focus on immediate needs.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，许多家庭仍在努力维持生计。而且，随着全国许多州失业救济金的结束，那些仍然失业或收入减少的人可能不得不放弃债务偿还计划，专注于眼前的需求。</blockquote></p><p> If you’ve been relying on your credit cards to carry you through, the expensive interest is going to add up quickly.</p><p><blockquote>如果你一直依靠信用卡度过难关，昂贵的利息会很快增加。</blockquote></p><p> For those who can’t borrow from their home equity to pay off card balances, adebt consolidation loancould help you get rid of debt sooner and save you a ton on expensive interest.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些无法从房屋净值中借款来偿还卡余额的人来说，债务合并贷款可以帮助您更快摆脱债务，并为您节省大量昂贵的利息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Work on your credit score</b></p><p><blockquote><b>提高您的信用评分</b></blockquote></p><p> While today's low rates make it easier to take out loans, you'll find it more expensive to borrow when rates do go up.</p><p><blockquote>虽然今天的低利率使贷款变得更容易，但当利率上升时，你会发现借贷成本更高。</blockquote></p><p> Today, it's easy to take afree peek at your credit score. So now’s the time to work on improving that score to ensure you’ll continue to be able to borrow at the lowest-possible rates.</p><p><blockquote>今天，很容易免费查看您的信用评分。因此，现在是时候努力提高该分数，以确保您能够继续以尽可能低的利率借款。</blockquote></p><p> Boosting your credit scorea few hundred pointswill make you a more attractive borrower to all types of lenders – from credit-card issuers to those offering mortgages.</p><p><blockquote>将您的信用评分提高几百分将使您成为对所有类型贷方（从信用卡发卡机构到提供抵押贷款的机构）更具吸引力的借款人。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Refinance your student loans</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为您的学生贷款再融资</b></blockquote></p><p> Federal student loan payments are paused until October but some prominent Democratic lawmakers, including Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, are pushing the president to provide more relief for borrowers and forgive up to $50,000 per person.</p><p><blockquote>联邦学生贷款支付暂停至10月份，但包括参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦(Elizabeth Warren)和参议院多数党领袖查克·舒默(Chuck Schumer)在内的一些著名民主党议员正在敦促总统为借款人提供更多救济，并免除每人最多5万美元。</blockquote></p><p> But those with debt from private student loans are still on the hook for their regular monthly minimum payments.</p><p><blockquote>但那些背负私人学生贷款债务的人仍然需要支付每月最低还款额。</blockquote></p><p> If you're one of those borrowers, refinancing to a lower rate or shorter term could save you thousands in interest fees and shave years off your debt.</p><p><blockquote>如果您是这些借款人之一，以较低利率或较短期限进行再融资可以为您节省数千美元的利息费用，并减少数年的债务。</blockquote></p><p> According to online loan marketplace, Credible, refinancing could slash your interest rate by more than 2 full percentage points and add up to substantial interest savings over the life of the loan.</p><p><blockquote>根据在线贷款市场，可信，再融资可以削减你的利率超过2个百分点，并在贷款期限内节省大量利息。</blockquote></p><p> To maximize your savings,compare loan offers from multiple lendersto lock in the lowest refinance rate possible.</p><p><blockquote>为了最大限度地提高您的储蓄，请比较多个贷方的贷款报价，以锁定尽可能低的再融资利率。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ride the red-hot stock market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>驾驭火热的股市</b></blockquote></p><p> Current low interest rates mean you won't earn much if you put money in a savings account. If you’ve got the appetite to take on a bit more risk, you could consider putting your money in investments.</p><p><blockquote>目前的低利率意味着如果你把钱存入储蓄账户，你赚不了多少钱。如果您愿意承担更多风险，您可以考虑将资金投入投资。</blockquote></p><p> Even if you don’t have much to put aside, you can download a popular app that allows you toinvest with your “spare change”, and turn your pennies into a diversified portfolio.</p><p><blockquote>即使你没有太多钱可以存，你也可以下载一个流行的应用程序，让你用你的“零钱”进行投资，把你的便士变成一个多元化的投资组合。</blockquote></p><p> Or, if you’re still apprehensive about the stock market, you could look intoinvesting in farmland. This stable, profitable asset has been known to offer better returns than real estate and stocks, according to data from the investing platform FarmTogether.</p><p><blockquote>或者，如果您仍然对股市感到担忧，您可以考虑投资农田。根据投资平台FarmTogether的数据，众所周知，这种稳定、盈利的资产比房地产和股票提供更好的回报。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/5-wise-money-moves-fed-160000889.html\">MoneyWise</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/5-wise-money-moves-fed-160000889.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171891885","content_text":"Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell (pictured) and his colleagues have said the central bank will keep its benchmark interest rate near zero for the time being, despite gains made by the U.S. economy in recent months.\nBut rates won’t stay low forever. As the economy recovers from the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation is rising and more people are getting back to work. This has led the Fed to indicate a rate hike could come as soon as 2023 — moved up from its previous plan to wait until 2024.\nFor consumers, that means now may be the time tosplurge on a fun purchaseor take out a loan for something they need.\nHere are five money moves you should make before rates rise.\nRefinance your home loan\nMortgage rates fell to record-breaking lows during the pandemic, but they’re slowly creeping up as the economy continues to recover from COVID-19.\nWhile rates are currently at historically low levels, experts predict they will rise to 4% this year — which means now's the time to act if you’ve been mulling a refinance.\nAn estimated 14.1 million Americans have the opportunity to refi andsave an average $287 a month, according to recent research from mortgage technology and data provider Black Knight.\nAlternatively, rising house prices offer homeowners an opportunity to leverage their home equity to fund home improvement projects, pay down debt or cover their children’s education funds.\nConsolidate your debt\nThe pandemic made it difficult for Americans to travel, eat in restaurants or spend on retail purchases, and many used the money they didn't spend on those activities to increase their savings and pay down debt.\nThe number of consumers who paid off their credit card balances in full every month reached an all-time high of 35.1% late last year, according to a report from the American Bankers Association.\nStill, many households are struggling to make ends meet. And, with unemployment benefits ending in many states across the country, those still out of work or living on reduced incomes may have had to give up their debt repayment plans to focus on immediate needs.\nIf you’ve been relying on your credit cards to carry you through, the expensive interest is going to add up quickly.\nFor those who can’t borrow from their home equity to pay off card balances, adebt consolidation loancould help you get rid of debt sooner and save you a ton on expensive interest.\nWork on your credit score\nWhile today's low rates make it easier to take out loans, you'll find it more expensive to borrow when rates do go up.\nToday, it's easy to take afree peek at your credit score. So now’s the time to work on improving that score to ensure you’ll continue to be able to borrow at the lowest-possible rates.\nBoosting your credit scorea few hundred pointswill make you a more attractive borrower to all types of lenders – from credit-card issuers to those offering mortgages.\nRefinance your student loans\nFederal student loan payments are paused until October but some prominent Democratic lawmakers, including Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, are pushing the president to provide more relief for borrowers and forgive up to $50,000 per person.\nBut those with debt from private student loans are still on the hook for their regular monthly minimum payments.\nIf you're one of those borrowers, refinancing to a lower rate or shorter term could save you thousands in interest fees and shave years off your debt.\nAccording to online loan marketplace, Credible, refinancing could slash your interest rate by more than 2 full percentage points and add up to substantial interest savings over the life of the loan.\nTo maximize your savings,compare loan offers from multiple lendersto lock in the lowest refinance rate possible.\nRide the red-hot stock market\nCurrent low interest rates mean you won't earn much if you put money in a savings account. If you’ve got the appetite to take on a bit more risk, you could consider putting your money in investments.\nEven if you don’t have much to put aside, you can download a popular app that allows you toinvest with your “spare change”, and turn your pennies into a diversified portfolio.\nOr, if you’re still apprehensive about the stock market, you could look intoinvesting in farmland. This stable, profitable asset has been known to offer better returns than real estate and stocks, according to data from the investing platform FarmTogether.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":542,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":155061597,"gmtCreate":1625364379619,"gmtModify":1631890738302,"author":{"id":"3576390362043433","authorId":"3576390362043433","name":"chelvi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6a8a4bf7a99f1ceb457affa9db3e865","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576390362043433","idStr":"3576390362043433"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/155061597","repostId":"1146176335","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146176335","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625277627,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1146176335?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-03 10:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can Alibaba Turn Around Its Woes in the Second Half of 2021?<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW能否在2021年下半年扭转颓势？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146176335","media":"The Street","summary":"Alibaba has been a sore laggard compared with its large- and mega-cap peers. Can that change in the second half of 2021?Alibaba  -Get Report has been a total dog so far this year. Shares were trading well into the fourth quarter of 2020 but then a string of issues pummeled the stock.Regulators disrupted Ant's initial public offering, then dug deeper on Alibaba and dialed up the heat.Investors don’t like regulatory issues as it is but particularly when we’re dealing with Chinese regulators.Howeve","content":"<p>  Alibaba has been a sore laggard compared with its large- and mega-cap peers. Can that change in the second half of 2021?  Alibaba&nbsp;(<b>BABA</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;has been a total dog so far this year. Shares were trading well into the fourth quarter of 2020 but then a string of issues pummeled the stock.</p><p><blockquote>与大型股和超大型股同行相比，阿里巴巴-SW一直严重落后。这种情况会在2021年下半年改变吗？阿里巴巴-SW(<b>巴巴</b>）-今年到目前为止，Get报告一直是一只狗。该股在2020年第四季度一直交易良好，但随后一系列问题重创了该股。</blockquote></p><p> Regulators disrupted Ant's initial public offering, then dug deeper on Alibaba and dialed up the heat.</p><p><blockquote>监管机构扰乱了蚂蚁金服的首次公开募股，然后深入调查了阿里巴巴-SW并加大了力度。</blockquote></p><p> Investors don’t like regulatory issues as it is but particularly when we’re dealing with Chinese regulators.</p><p><blockquote>投资者不喜欢监管问题，尤其是当我们与中国监管机构打交道时。</blockquote></p><p> However, in April, Alibaba paid a smaller-than-expectedbut still record fine, hoping to puts its regulatory issues behind it. Still, the stock hasn’t responded the way bulls were hoping.</p><p><blockquote>然而，四月份，阿里巴巴-SW支付了低于预期但仍创纪录的罚款，希望将监管问题抛在脑后。尽管如此，该股的反应并没有像多头希望的那样。</blockquote></p><p> All of this comes as the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq continue to grind outnew all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>所有这一切都发生在标普500和纳斯达克继续超越历史新高之际。</blockquote></p><p> It also comes as FAANG stocks continue to trade incredibly well. Alphabet&nbsp;(<b>GOOGL</b>) -Get Reportis the top performerwith a near-40% gain in the first half of the year, while Netflix&nbsp;(<b>NFLX</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;is the worst, with a 2.3% drop.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，FAANG股票的交易继续非常好。Alphabet(<b>GOOGL</b>)-Get Reportis是表现最好的公司，上半年涨幅接近40%，而Netflix(<b>NFLX</b>）-Get报告最差，下降了2.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has a similar first-half performance, down 2.6%. However, it’s doing far worse from the highs, down more than 30%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW上半年表现类似，下跌2.6%。然而，它的表现比高点差得多，下跌了30%以上。</blockquote></p><p> Can it turn around its woes in the second half and start rallying higher?</p><p><blockquote>它能否在下半年扭转困境并开始反弹？</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9975f383919ff8cfc34fca49a32d8e8f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"494\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Call me a hopeless optimist, but I feel that Alibaba can have a solid second-half performance.</p><p><blockquote>看涨期权我是一个无可救药的乐观主义者，但我觉得阿里巴巴-SW下半场可以有稳定的表现。</blockquote></p><p> The overall market has done too well and so has large-cap tech. The fundamentals of the business are intact and growth is strong. It’s like Amazon&nbsp;(<b>AMZN</b>) -Get Report.Eventually, it will perform better&nbsp;- it’s a question of “when” and not “if.”</p><p><blockquote>整体市场表现太好了，大型科技股也是如此。业务基本面完好，增长强劲。就像亚马逊（<b>AMZN</b>)-获取报告。最终，它会表现得更好——这是一个“何时”而不是“如果”的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Shares continue to hold the $210 to $212 area and have recently cleared downtrend resistance (blue line). That said, there’s plenty of overhead hurdles.</p><p><blockquote>股价继续守住210美元至212美元区域，最近已清除下行阻力（蓝线）。也就是说，还有很多障碍。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, Alibaba stock is struggling with the 21-week moving average, as well as the 21-month and 10-month moving averages.</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，阿里巴巴-SW股票在21周移动平均线以及21个月和10个月移动平均线上苦苦挣扎。</blockquote></p><p> Let’s be clear: There are not a lot of bullish technical components here. If Alibaba stock could hold the 10-week moving average on this week’s dip, I’d feel better about it.</p><p><blockquote>让我们明确一点：这里没有很多看涨的技术成分。如果阿里巴巴-SW股票能够在本周下跌时守住10周移动平均线，我会感觉更好。</blockquote></p><p> However, as long as it can hold up over the $210 level and really, the 200-week moving average, I feel okay about Alibaba going into the next six months.</p><p><blockquote>然而，只要它能够保持在210美元水平和200周移动平均线以上，我对阿里巴巴-SW进入未来六个月感到满意。</blockquote></p><p> A push over $235 - thus putting it over all of the moving average hurdles mentioned above - could open up a run to $250, then $263. Above $275 and $300 is in play.</p><p><blockquote>突破235美元——从而突破上述所有移动平均线障碍——可能会上涨至250美元，然后是263美元。275美元以上和300美元正在发挥作用。</blockquote></p><p> Keep the risk in mind but this could be a solid second-half rebound play.</p><p><blockquote>请记住风险，但这可能是一场稳固的下半场反弹。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610613172068","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can Alibaba Turn Around Its Woes in the Second Half of 2021?<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW能否在2021年下半年扭转颓势？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan Alibaba Turn Around Its Woes in the Second Half of 2021?<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW能否在2021年下半年扭转颓势？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Street</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-03 10:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  Alibaba has been a sore laggard compared with its large- and mega-cap peers. Can that change in the second half of 2021?  Alibaba&nbsp;(<b>BABA</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;has been a total dog so far this year. Shares were trading well into the fourth quarter of 2020 but then a string of issues pummeled the stock.</p><p><blockquote>与大型股和超大型股同行相比，阿里巴巴-SW一直严重落后。这种情况会在2021年下半年改变吗？阿里巴巴-SW(<b>巴巴</b>）-今年到目前为止，Get报告一直是一只狗。该股在2020年第四季度一直交易良好，但随后一系列问题重创了该股。</blockquote></p><p> Regulators disrupted Ant's initial public offering, then dug deeper on Alibaba and dialed up the heat.</p><p><blockquote>监管机构扰乱了蚂蚁金服的首次公开募股，然后深入调查了阿里巴巴-SW并加大了力度。</blockquote></p><p> Investors don’t like regulatory issues as it is but particularly when we’re dealing with Chinese regulators.</p><p><blockquote>投资者不喜欢监管问题，尤其是当我们与中国监管机构打交道时。</blockquote></p><p> However, in April, Alibaba paid a smaller-than-expectedbut still record fine, hoping to puts its regulatory issues behind it. Still, the stock hasn’t responded the way bulls were hoping.</p><p><blockquote>然而，四月份，阿里巴巴-SW支付了低于预期但仍创纪录的罚款，希望将监管问题抛在脑后。尽管如此，该股的反应并没有像多头希望的那样。</blockquote></p><p> All of this comes as the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq continue to grind outnew all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>所有这一切都发生在标普500和纳斯达克继续超越历史新高之际。</blockquote></p><p> It also comes as FAANG stocks continue to trade incredibly well. Alphabet&nbsp;(<b>GOOGL</b>) -Get Reportis the top performerwith a near-40% gain in the first half of the year, while Netflix&nbsp;(<b>NFLX</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;is the worst, with a 2.3% drop.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，FAANG股票的交易继续非常好。Alphabet(<b>GOOGL</b>)-Get Reportis是表现最好的公司，上半年涨幅接近40%，而Netflix(<b>NFLX</b>）-Get报告最差，下降了2.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has a similar first-half performance, down 2.6%. However, it’s doing far worse from the highs, down more than 30%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW上半年表现类似，下跌2.6%。然而，它的表现比高点差得多，下跌了30%以上。</blockquote></p><p> Can it turn around its woes in the second half and start rallying higher?</p><p><blockquote>它能否在下半年扭转困境并开始反弹？</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9975f383919ff8cfc34fca49a32d8e8f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"494\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Call me a hopeless optimist, but I feel that Alibaba can have a solid second-half performance.</p><p><blockquote>看涨期权我是一个无可救药的乐观主义者，但我觉得阿里巴巴-SW下半场可以有稳定的表现。</blockquote></p><p> The overall market has done too well and so has large-cap tech. The fundamentals of the business are intact and growth is strong. It’s like Amazon&nbsp;(<b>AMZN</b>) -Get Report.Eventually, it will perform better&nbsp;- it’s a question of “when” and not “if.”</p><p><blockquote>整体市场表现太好了，大型科技股也是如此。业务基本面完好，增长强劲。就像亚马逊（<b>AMZN</b>)-获取报告。最终，它会表现得更好——这是一个“何时”而不是“如果”的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Shares continue to hold the $210 to $212 area and have recently cleared downtrend resistance (blue line). That said, there’s plenty of overhead hurdles.</p><p><blockquote>股价继续守住210美元至212美元区域，最近已清除下行阻力（蓝线）。也就是说，还有很多障碍。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, Alibaba stock is struggling with the 21-week moving average, as well as the 21-month and 10-month moving averages.</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，阿里巴巴-SW股票在21周移动平均线以及21个月和10个月移动平均线上苦苦挣扎。</blockquote></p><p> Let’s be clear: There are not a lot of bullish technical components here. If Alibaba stock could hold the 10-week moving average on this week’s dip, I’d feel better about it.</p><p><blockquote>让我们明确一点：这里没有很多看涨的技术成分。如果阿里巴巴-SW股票能够在本周下跌时守住10周移动平均线，我会感觉更好。</blockquote></p><p> However, as long as it can hold up over the $210 level and really, the 200-week moving average, I feel okay about Alibaba going into the next six months.</p><p><blockquote>然而，只要它能够保持在210美元水平和200周移动平均线以上，我对阿里巴巴-SW进入未来六个月感到满意。</blockquote></p><p> A push over $235 - thus putting it over all of the moving average hurdles mentioned above - could open up a run to $250, then $263. Above $275 and $300 is in play.</p><p><blockquote>突破235美元——从而突破上述所有移动平均线障碍——可能会上涨至250美元，然后是263美元。275美元以上和300美元正在发挥作用。</blockquote></p><p> Keep the risk in mind but this could be a solid second-half rebound play.</p><p><blockquote>请记住风险，但这可能是一场稳固的下半场反弹。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/alibaba-baba-stock-second-half-2021-trading?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO\">The Street</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09618":"京东集团-SW"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/alibaba-baba-stock-second-half-2021-trading?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146176335","content_text":"Alibaba has been a sore laggard compared with its large- and mega-cap peers. Can that change in the second half of 2021?\n\nAlibaba (BABA) -Get Report has been a total dog so far this year. Shares were trading well into the fourth quarter of 2020 but then a string of issues pummeled the stock.\nRegulators disrupted Ant's initial public offering, then dug deeper on Alibaba and dialed up the heat.\nInvestors don’t like regulatory issues as it is but particularly when we’re dealing with Chinese regulators.\nHowever, in April, Alibaba paid a smaller-than-expectedbut still record fine, hoping to puts its regulatory issues behind it. Still, the stock hasn’t responded the way bulls were hoping.\nAll of this comes as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq continue to grind outnew all-time highs.\nIt also comes as FAANG stocks continue to trade incredibly well. Alphabet (GOOGL) -Get Reportis the top performerwith a near-40% gain in the first half of the year, while Netflix (NFLX) -Get Report is the worst, with a 2.3% drop.\nAlibaba has a similar first-half performance, down 2.6%. However, it’s doing far worse from the highs, down more than 30%.\nCan it turn around its woes in the second half and start rallying higher?\n\nCall me a hopeless optimist, but I feel that Alibaba can have a solid second-half performance.\nThe overall market has done too well and so has large-cap tech. The fundamentals of the business are intact and growth is strong. It’s like Amazon (AMZN) -Get Report.Eventually, it will perform better - it’s a question of “when” and not “if.”\nShares continue to hold the $210 to $212 area and have recently cleared downtrend resistance (blue line). That said, there’s plenty of overhead hurdles.\nSpecifically, Alibaba stock is struggling with the 21-week moving average, as well as the 21-month and 10-month moving averages.\nLet’s be clear: There are not a lot of bullish technical components here. If Alibaba stock could hold the 10-week moving average on this week’s dip, I’d feel better about it.\nHowever, as long as it can hold up over the $210 level and really, the 200-week moving average, I feel okay about Alibaba going into the next six months.\nA push over $235 - thus putting it over all of the moving average hurdles mentioned above - could open up a run to $250, then $263. Above $275 and $300 is in play.\nKeep the risk in mind but this could be a solid second-half rebound play.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09618":0.9,"BABA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":636,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":155061130,"gmtCreate":1625364347320,"gmtModify":1631890738304,"author":{"id":"3576390362043433","authorId":"3576390362043433","name":"chelvi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6a8a4bf7a99f1ceb457affa9db3e865","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576390362043433","idStr":"3576390362043433"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and share&nbsp;","listText":"Like and share&nbsp;","text":"Like and share","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/155061130","repostId":"1114445293","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1114445293","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625277820,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1114445293?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-03 10:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Robinhood’s IPO Could Be a Sign the Stock Market Has Peaked<blockquote>Robinhood的IPO可能是股市已见顶的迹象</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114445293","media":"Barron's","summary":"Nothing succeeds like excess, as the old quip goes. Until it doesn’t, which has been the distinguish","content":"<p>Nothing succeeds like excess, as the old quip goes. Until it doesn’t, which has been the distinguishing aspect of market cycles forever and, most dramatically, in this century. Unlike last year’s pandemic-induced paroxysm, the 2000 bursting of the dot-com bubble and the 2008 financial crisis were marked by initial public offerings by companies eager to seize the moment—and investors’ money.</p><p><blockquote>正如一句老话所说，没有什么比过度更成功的了。直到它没有，这一直是市场周期的显著特征，最引人注目的是在本世纪。与去年大流行引发的爆发不同，2000年互联网泡沫破裂和2008年金融危机的标志是渴望抓住时机和投资者资金的公司进行首次公开募股。</blockquote></p><p> All of which is prologue to what could shape up as this cycle’s bell-ringing event, theinitial public offering of Robinhood, the online broker that pioneered zero commissions and hooked a new generation on investing and trading. Thepaperwork was filedwith the SEC this past week. Financial details about the upstart that purports to democratize investing (and, in the process, was hit with a record$70 million fine by Finra, the brokerage business’s self-regulatory body) are discussedhere, but a few salient points are buried deep in the S-1 filing.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都是可能成为本周期敲响钟声的事件的序幕，即Robinhood的首次公开募股，这家在线经纪商开创了零佣金的先河，吸引了新一代人进行投资和交易。该文件已于上周提交给SEC。这里讨论了这家声称投资民主化的新贵的财务细节（并在此过程中被经纪业务自律机构Finra处以创纪录的7000万美元罚款），但有几个要点深深地埋藏在S-1文件中。</blockquote></p><p> Customer assets more than quadrupled, to $80.9 billion, on March 31 from the total a year earlier, with the lion’s share—some $65.1 billion—accounted for by equities. Options comprised a relatively small $2 billion in assets, but generated nearly half ($197.9 million) of the March quarter’s $420.4 million in transactions revenue. Stocks produced $133.3 million in revenue, even though assets in equities were 40 times as large as those in options. Revenue from cryptocurrencies totaled $87.6 million, with customers’ crypto assets totaling $11.6 billion.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月31日，客户资产总额比去年同期增加了四倍多，达到809亿美元，其中股票占了最大份额（约651亿美元）。期权资产规模相对较小，为20亿美元，但占3月份季度4.204亿美元交易收入的近一半（1.979亿美元）。尽管股票资产是期权资产的40倍，但股票产生了1.333亿美元的收入。来自加密货币的收入总计8760万美元，客户的加密资产总计116亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> While Robinhood makes much of opening the market to neophyte investors with limited means by letting them buy fractional shares of their favorite stocks, that’s not its biggest business. Instead, it’s speculative options trading, which exploded early this year especially among the YOLO (You Only Live Once) crowd willing to stake a few bucks on cheap, about-to-expire calls of stocks talked up on Reddit.</p><p><blockquote>虽然Robinhood非常重视向手段有限的新手投资者开放市场，让他们购买自己喜欢的股票的部分股票，但这并不是其最大的业务。相反，投机性期权交易在今年早些时候爆发，尤其是在YOLO（你只能活一次）人群中，他们愿意在Reddit上谈论的廉价、即将到期的评级股票上押上几美元。</blockquote></p><p> There are signs that the frenzied trading, which peaked during the winter, has eased with the reopening of the economy and the return to the prepandemic normal (and with it an uptick in Covid cases after a steady decline). Trading crypto might be simpler on a brokerage platform like Robinhood, but wasn’t the advantage of DeFi (decentralized finance) supposed to be that intermediaries wouldn’t be needed at all?</p><p><blockquote>有迹象表明，随着经济重新开放和恢复到大流行前的正常状态（新冠病例在稳步下降后也随之上升），在冬季达到顶峰的疯狂交易已经有所缓解。在Robinhood这样的经纪平台上交易加密货币可能更简单，但DeFi（去中心化金融）的优势不应该是根本不需要中介吗？</blockquote></p><p> Bulls on Robinhood would be betting on continued growth of its independent trading model, rather than investors using passive funds through advisors, which the filing derides. The broker pledged to reserve up to 35% of its IPO for its customers, who are apt to be enthusiastic buyers and, more importantly, hold onto them with “diamond hands” through volatile times.</p><p><blockquote>Robinhood的多头将押注于其独立交易模式的持续增长，而不是投资者通过顾问使用被动基金，文件对此进行了嘲笑。该经纪商承诺为其客户保留高达35%的IPO资金，这些客户往往是热情的买家，更重要的是，在动荡时期用“钻石手”抓住他们。</blockquote></p><p> And, indeed, turbulence, or worse, could lie ahead,Michael Burry told our colleague Connor Smith. Burry, a key player in both the book and film versions of<i>The Big Short</i>, won a fortune by betting against the housing market before the subprime mortgage collapse. More recently, he was an early bull onGamestop(ticker: GME), but took his profits in 2020’s fourth quarter before the frenzy around the original meme stock took off. Now he’s warning that the craze will end in tears.</p><p><blockquote>迈克尔·伯里告诉我们的同事康纳·史密斯，事实上，未来可能会出现动荡，甚至更糟。伯里，书和电影版本中的关键人物<i>大空头</i>，在次贷崩溃之前，通过做空房地产市场而赚了一大笔钱。最近，他是GameStop（股票代码：GME）的早期看涨者，但在围绕原始meme股票的狂热开始之前，他在2020年第四季度获利了结。现在他警告说，这种狂热将以眼泪告终。</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t know when meme stocks such as this will crash, but we probably do not have to wait too long, as I believe the retail crowd is fully invested in this theme, and Wall Street has jumped on the coattails,” he told Connor in an email. “We’re running out of new money available to jump on the bandwagon.”</p><p><blockquote>“我不知道像这样的模因股票什么时候会崩溃，但我们可能不必等太久，因为我相信散户人群已经完全投资于这个主题，而华尔街也抓住了这一机会，”他在一封电子邮件中告诉康纳。“我们已经没有新的资金来跟上潮流了。”</blockquote></p><p> The Robinhood offering wouldn’t be the first stock sale that could be a top-of-the-market event. Back in mid-2007,<i>Barron’s</i>Andrew Bary calledthe IPO ofBlackstone Group(BX) precisely that, just weeks before concerns about excesses of subprime lending rumbled through the global money markets and months before theDow Jones Industrial Averagepeaked the following October.</p><p><blockquote>Robinhood的发行并不是第一次可能成为市场顶级事件的股票销售。早在2007年中期，<i>巴伦周刊</i>安德鲁·巴里(Andrew Bary)正是这样称呼黑石集团(BX)的IPO，就在对过度次级贷款的担忧席卷全球货币市场的几周前，以及道琼斯工业平均指数在次年10月见顶的几个月前。</blockquote></p><p> And who could forget the parade of wacky IPOs in the late 1990s that presaged the potential of the internet, but lacked earnings or revenue or even a viable business plan? By March 2000,<i>Barron’s</i>published itsseminal cover storyrevealing that these dot-com darlings were rapidly burning cash. That very month marked theNasdaq Composite’speak; the index would fall nearly 80% by October 2002.</p><p><blockquote>谁能忘记20世纪90年代末一系列古怪的IPO，这些IPO预示着互联网的潜力，但缺乏盈利或收入，甚至缺乏可行的商业计划？到2000年3月，<i>巴伦周刊</i>发表了开创性的封面故事，揭示了这些互联网宠儿正在迅速烧钱。就在那个月，纳斯达克综合指数发表了讲话；到2002年10月，该指数将下跌近80%。</blockquote></p><p> While Burry warns of a crash in meme stocks from their vastly elevated levels, which some of the companies have exploited by issuing richly valued shares, the overall market—now trading at about 21.5 times estimated earnings for the next 12 months—hasn’t approached the bubble levels of past cycles. But surveys of market strategists and institutional investors see little upside, with year-end targets averaging around 4200 on theS&amp;P 500—shy of Thursday’s close of 4319.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Burry警告称，模因股票将从大幅上涨的水平暴跌（一些公司通过发行估值丰厚的股票来利用这一点），但整体市场——目前的交易价格约为未来12个月预期市盈率的21.5倍——尚未接近过去周期的泡沫水平。但对市场策略师和机构投资者的调查认为上涨空间不大，标准普尔500指数的年终目标平均约为4200点，低于周四收盘价4319点。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> And while it’s always dangerous to say this, it<i>is</i>different this time around from 2000 and 2008. Ahead of crashes in those years, the Federal Reserve had been tightening policy for some time, resulting in a flat-to-negatively sloped yield curve. Shorter-term Treasury yields were pushed above longer-term ones, leading the bond market to predict that the economy was headed for the rocks.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这么说总是很危险，但<i>是</i>这一次与2000年和2008年不同。在那些年的崩盘之前，美联储已经收紧政策一段时间了，导致收益率曲线持平至负斜率。短期国债收益率被推高至长期国债收益率之上，导致债券市场预测经济将走向悬崖。</blockquote></p><p> Now, in contrast, the Fed has only begun talking about talking about reducing its massive purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities. That would be preparation for the initial liftoff of the Fed’s key federal-funds target rate, currently in a rock-bottom 0% to 0.25% range, in 2022 at the earliest and maybe not until 2023.</p><p><blockquote>现在，相比之下，美联储才刚刚开始谈论减少对美国国债和机构抵押贷款支持证券的大量购买。这将为美联储关键联邦基金目标利率的初步上调做准备，目前该利率处于0%至0.25%的最低范围，最早将于2022年，也可能要到2023年。</blockquote></p><p> The yield curve has flattened a bit in the past three months, with thespread between the two- and 10-year notenarrowing to 1.23 percentage points (still a sign of an accommodative policy), from 1.59 points on March 29, according to the St. Louis Fed.</p><p><blockquote>根据圣路易斯的数据，过去三个月收益率曲线略有平坦，2年期和10年期国债之间的利差从3月29日的1.59个百分点收窄至1.23个百分点（仍然是宽松政策的迹象）美联储。</blockquote></p><p> But there is also a psychological element at play in any market frenzy. “Most investors also seem to view the stock market as a force of nature itself. They do not fully realize that they themselves, as a group, determine the level of the market,” Nobel laureate Robert Shiller wrote in his now-classic book<i>Irrational Exuberance</i>.</p><p><blockquote>但任何市场狂热也有心理因素在起作用。诺贝尔奖得主罗伯特·席勒在他的经典著作中写道：“大多数投资者似乎也将股市本身视为一种自然力量。他们没有充分意识到，作为一个群体，他们自己决定了市场的水平。”<i>非理性繁荣</i>.</blockquote></p><p> “In short, the price level is driven to a certain extent by a self-fulfilling prophecy, based on similar hunches held by a vast cross-section of large and small investors and reinforced by news media that are often content to ratify this investor-induced conventional wisdom.”</p><p><blockquote>“简而言之，价格水平在一定程度上是由自我实现的预言驱动的，该预言基于广大大小投资者持有的类似预感，并得到新闻媒体的强化，这些媒体往往满足于认可这种投资者诱导的传统智慧。”</blockquote></p><p> Readers can weigh the relevance of the point about traders’ hunches to the Robinhood IPO. As for the latter statement regarding the media, we demur; contrary opinion rather than conventional wisdom has been<i>Barron’s</i>credo in the century since its founding.</p><p><blockquote>读者可以权衡交易者的预感与Robinhood IPO的相关性。至于后一种关于媒体的说法，我们表示反对；相反的意见而不是传统的智慧<i>巴伦周刊</i>自成立以来的一个世纪里的信条。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Robinhood’s IPO Could Be a Sign the Stock Market Has Peaked<blockquote>Robinhood的IPO可能是股市已见顶的迹象</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRobinhood’s IPO Could Be a Sign the Stock Market Has Peaked<blockquote>Robinhood的IPO可能是股市已见顶的迹象</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-03 10:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Nothing succeeds like excess, as the old quip goes. Until it doesn’t, which has been the distinguishing aspect of market cycles forever and, most dramatically, in this century. Unlike last year’s pandemic-induced paroxysm, the 2000 bursting of the dot-com bubble and the 2008 financial crisis were marked by initial public offerings by companies eager to seize the moment—and investors’ money.</p><p><blockquote>正如一句老话所说，没有什么比过度更成功的了。直到它没有，这一直是市场周期的显著特征，最引人注目的是在本世纪。与去年大流行引发的爆发不同，2000年互联网泡沫破裂和2008年金融危机的标志是渴望抓住时机和投资者资金的公司进行首次公开募股。</blockquote></p><p> All of which is prologue to what could shape up as this cycle’s bell-ringing event, theinitial public offering of Robinhood, the online broker that pioneered zero commissions and hooked a new generation on investing and trading. Thepaperwork was filedwith the SEC this past week. Financial details about the upstart that purports to democratize investing (and, in the process, was hit with a record$70 million fine by Finra, the brokerage business’s self-regulatory body) are discussedhere, but a few salient points are buried deep in the S-1 filing.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都是可能成为本周期敲响钟声的事件的序幕，即Robinhood的首次公开募股，这家在线经纪商开创了零佣金的先河，吸引了新一代人进行投资和交易。该文件已于上周提交给SEC。这里讨论了这家声称投资民主化的新贵的财务细节（并在此过程中被经纪业务自律机构Finra处以创纪录的7000万美元罚款），但有几个要点深深地埋藏在S-1文件中。</blockquote></p><p> Customer assets more than quadrupled, to $80.9 billion, on March 31 from the total a year earlier, with the lion’s share—some $65.1 billion—accounted for by equities. Options comprised a relatively small $2 billion in assets, but generated nearly half ($197.9 million) of the March quarter’s $420.4 million in transactions revenue. Stocks produced $133.3 million in revenue, even though assets in equities were 40 times as large as those in options. Revenue from cryptocurrencies totaled $87.6 million, with customers’ crypto assets totaling $11.6 billion.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月31日，客户资产总额比去年同期增加了四倍多，达到809亿美元，其中股票占了最大份额（约651亿美元）。期权资产规模相对较小，为20亿美元，但占3月份季度4.204亿美元交易收入的近一半（1.979亿美元）。尽管股票资产是期权资产的40倍，但股票产生了1.333亿美元的收入。来自加密货币的收入总计8760万美元，客户的加密资产总计116亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> While Robinhood makes much of opening the market to neophyte investors with limited means by letting them buy fractional shares of their favorite stocks, that’s not its biggest business. Instead, it’s speculative options trading, which exploded early this year especially among the YOLO (You Only Live Once) crowd willing to stake a few bucks on cheap, about-to-expire calls of stocks talked up on Reddit.</p><p><blockquote>虽然Robinhood非常重视向手段有限的新手投资者开放市场，让他们购买自己喜欢的股票的部分股票，但这并不是其最大的业务。相反，投机性期权交易在今年早些时候爆发，尤其是在YOLO（你只能活一次）人群中，他们愿意在Reddit上谈论的廉价、即将到期的评级股票上押上几美元。</blockquote></p><p> There are signs that the frenzied trading, which peaked during the winter, has eased with the reopening of the economy and the return to the prepandemic normal (and with it an uptick in Covid cases after a steady decline). Trading crypto might be simpler on a brokerage platform like Robinhood, but wasn’t the advantage of DeFi (decentralized finance) supposed to be that intermediaries wouldn’t be needed at all?</p><p><blockquote>有迹象表明，随着经济重新开放和恢复到大流行前的正常状态（新冠病例在稳步下降后也随之上升），在冬季达到顶峰的疯狂交易已经有所缓解。在Robinhood这样的经纪平台上交易加密货币可能更简单，但DeFi（去中心化金融）的优势不应该是根本不需要中介吗？</blockquote></p><p> Bulls on Robinhood would be betting on continued growth of its independent trading model, rather than investors using passive funds through advisors, which the filing derides. The broker pledged to reserve up to 35% of its IPO for its customers, who are apt to be enthusiastic buyers and, more importantly, hold onto them with “diamond hands” through volatile times.</p><p><blockquote>Robinhood的多头将押注于其独立交易模式的持续增长，而不是投资者通过顾问使用被动基金，文件对此进行了嘲笑。该经纪商承诺为其客户保留高达35%的IPO资金，这些客户往往是热情的买家，更重要的是，在动荡时期用“钻石手”抓住他们。</blockquote></p><p> And, indeed, turbulence, or worse, could lie ahead,Michael Burry told our colleague Connor Smith. Burry, a key player in both the book and film versions of<i>The Big Short</i>, won a fortune by betting against the housing market before the subprime mortgage collapse. More recently, he was an early bull onGamestop(ticker: GME), but took his profits in 2020’s fourth quarter before the frenzy around the original meme stock took off. Now he’s warning that the craze will end in tears.</p><p><blockquote>迈克尔·伯里告诉我们的同事康纳·史密斯，事实上，未来可能会出现动荡，甚至更糟。伯里，书和电影版本中的关键人物<i>大空头</i>，在次贷崩溃之前，通过做空房地产市场而赚了一大笔钱。最近，他是GameStop（股票代码：GME）的早期看涨者，但在围绕原始meme股票的狂热开始之前，他在2020年第四季度获利了结。现在他警告说，这种狂热将以眼泪告终。</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t know when meme stocks such as this will crash, but we probably do not have to wait too long, as I believe the retail crowd is fully invested in this theme, and Wall Street has jumped on the coattails,” he told Connor in an email. “We’re running out of new money available to jump on the bandwagon.”</p><p><blockquote>“我不知道像这样的模因股票什么时候会崩溃，但我们可能不必等太久，因为我相信散户人群已经完全投资于这个主题，而华尔街也抓住了这一机会，”他在一封电子邮件中告诉康纳。“我们已经没有新的资金来跟上潮流了。”</blockquote></p><p> The Robinhood offering wouldn’t be the first stock sale that could be a top-of-the-market event. Back in mid-2007,<i>Barron’s</i>Andrew Bary calledthe IPO ofBlackstone Group(BX) precisely that, just weeks before concerns about excesses of subprime lending rumbled through the global money markets and months before theDow Jones Industrial Averagepeaked the following October.</p><p><blockquote>Robinhood的发行并不是第一次可能成为市场顶级事件的股票销售。早在2007年中期，<i>巴伦周刊</i>安德鲁·巴里(Andrew Bary)正是这样称呼黑石集团(BX)的IPO，就在对过度次级贷款的担忧席卷全球货币市场的几周前，以及道琼斯工业平均指数在次年10月见顶的几个月前。</blockquote></p><p> And who could forget the parade of wacky IPOs in the late 1990s that presaged the potential of the internet, but lacked earnings or revenue or even a viable business plan? By March 2000,<i>Barron’s</i>published itsseminal cover storyrevealing that these dot-com darlings were rapidly burning cash. That very month marked theNasdaq Composite’speak; the index would fall nearly 80% by October 2002.</p><p><blockquote>谁能忘记20世纪90年代末一系列古怪的IPO，这些IPO预示着互联网的潜力，但缺乏盈利或收入，甚至缺乏可行的商业计划？到2000年3月，<i>巴伦周刊</i>发表了开创性的封面故事，揭示了这些互联网宠儿正在迅速烧钱。就在那个月，纳斯达克综合指数发表了讲话；到2002年10月，该指数将下跌近80%。</blockquote></p><p> While Burry warns of a crash in meme stocks from their vastly elevated levels, which some of the companies have exploited by issuing richly valued shares, the overall market—now trading at about 21.5 times estimated earnings for the next 12 months—hasn’t approached the bubble levels of past cycles. But surveys of market strategists and institutional investors see little upside, with year-end targets averaging around 4200 on theS&amp;P 500—shy of Thursday’s close of 4319.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Burry警告称，模因股票将从大幅上涨的水平暴跌（一些公司通过发行估值丰厚的股票来利用这一点），但整体市场——目前的交易价格约为未来12个月预期市盈率的21.5倍——尚未接近过去周期的泡沫水平。但对市场策略师和机构投资者的调查认为上涨空间不大，标准普尔500指数的年终目标平均约为4200点，低于周四收盘价4319点。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> And while it’s always dangerous to say this, it<i>is</i>different this time around from 2000 and 2008. Ahead of crashes in those years, the Federal Reserve had been tightening policy for some time, resulting in a flat-to-negatively sloped yield curve. Shorter-term Treasury yields were pushed above longer-term ones, leading the bond market to predict that the economy was headed for the rocks.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这么说总是很危险，但<i>是</i>这一次与2000年和2008年不同。在那些年的崩盘之前，美联储已经收紧政策一段时间了，导致收益率曲线持平至负斜率。短期国债收益率被推高至长期国债收益率之上，导致债券市场预测经济将走向悬崖。</blockquote></p><p> Now, in contrast, the Fed has only begun talking about talking about reducing its massive purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities. That would be preparation for the initial liftoff of the Fed’s key federal-funds target rate, currently in a rock-bottom 0% to 0.25% range, in 2022 at the earliest and maybe not until 2023.</p><p><blockquote>现在，相比之下，美联储才刚刚开始谈论减少对美国国债和机构抵押贷款支持证券的大量购买。这将为美联储关键联邦基金目标利率的初步上调做准备，目前该利率处于0%至0.25%的最低范围，最早将于2022年，也可能要到2023年。</blockquote></p><p> The yield curve has flattened a bit in the past three months, with thespread between the two- and 10-year notenarrowing to 1.23 percentage points (still a sign of an accommodative policy), from 1.59 points on March 29, according to the St. Louis Fed.</p><p><blockquote>根据圣路易斯的数据，过去三个月收益率曲线略有平坦，2年期和10年期国债之间的利差从3月29日的1.59个百分点收窄至1.23个百分点（仍然是宽松政策的迹象）美联储。</blockquote></p><p> But there is also a psychological element at play in any market frenzy. “Most investors also seem to view the stock market as a force of nature itself. They do not fully realize that they themselves, as a group, determine the level of the market,” Nobel laureate Robert Shiller wrote in his now-classic book<i>Irrational Exuberance</i>.</p><p><blockquote>但任何市场狂热也有心理因素在起作用。诺贝尔奖得主罗伯特·席勒在他的经典著作中写道：“大多数投资者似乎也将股市本身视为一种自然力量。他们没有充分意识到，作为一个群体，他们自己决定了市场的水平。”<i>非理性繁荣</i>.</blockquote></p><p> “In short, the price level is driven to a certain extent by a self-fulfilling prophecy, based on similar hunches held by a vast cross-section of large and small investors and reinforced by news media that are often content to ratify this investor-induced conventional wisdom.”</p><p><blockquote>“简而言之，价格水平在一定程度上是由自我实现的预言驱动的，该预言基于广大大小投资者持有的类似预感，并得到新闻媒体的强化，这些媒体往往满足于认可这种投资者诱导的传统智慧。”</blockquote></p><p> Readers can weigh the relevance of the point about traders’ hunches to the Robinhood IPO. As for the latter statement regarding the media, we demur; contrary opinion rather than conventional wisdom has been<i>Barron’s</i>credo in the century since its founding.</p><p><blockquote>读者可以权衡交易者的预感与Robinhood IPO的相关性。至于后一种关于媒体的说法，我们表示反对；相反的意见而不是传统的智慧<i>巴伦周刊</i>自成立以来的一个世纪里的信条。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/analyst-explains-why-netflix-should-sell-ads-51624987059\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/analyst-explains-why-netflix-should-sell-ads-51624987059","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114445293","content_text":"Nothing succeeds like excess, as the old quip goes. Until it doesn’t, which has been the distinguishing aspect of market cycles forever and, most dramatically, in this century. Unlike last year’s pandemic-induced paroxysm, the 2000 bursting of the dot-com bubble and the 2008 financial crisis were marked by initial public offerings by companies eager to seize the moment—and investors’ money.\nAll of which is prologue to what could shape up as this cycle’s bell-ringing event, theinitial public offering of Robinhood, the online broker that pioneered zero commissions and hooked a new generation on investing and trading. Thepaperwork was filedwith the SEC this past week. Financial details about the upstart that purports to democratize investing (and, in the process, was hit with a record$70 million fine by Finra, the brokerage business’s self-regulatory body) are discussedhere, but a few salient points are buried deep in the S-1 filing.\nCustomer assets more than quadrupled, to $80.9 billion, on March 31 from the total a year earlier, with the lion’s share—some $65.1 billion—accounted for by equities. Options comprised a relatively small $2 billion in assets, but generated nearly half ($197.9 million) of the March quarter’s $420.4 million in transactions revenue. Stocks produced $133.3 million in revenue, even though assets in equities were 40 times as large as those in options. Revenue from cryptocurrencies totaled $87.6 million, with customers’ crypto assets totaling $11.6 billion.\nWhile Robinhood makes much of opening the market to neophyte investors with limited means by letting them buy fractional shares of their favorite stocks, that’s not its biggest business. Instead, it’s speculative options trading, which exploded early this year especially among the YOLO (You Only Live Once) crowd willing to stake a few bucks on cheap, about-to-expire calls of stocks talked up on Reddit.\nThere are signs that the frenzied trading, which peaked during the winter, has eased with the reopening of the economy and the return to the prepandemic normal (and with it an uptick in Covid cases after a steady decline). Trading crypto might be simpler on a brokerage platform like Robinhood, but wasn’t the advantage of DeFi (decentralized finance) supposed to be that intermediaries wouldn’t be needed at all?\nBulls on Robinhood would be betting on continued growth of its independent trading model, rather than investors using passive funds through advisors, which the filing derides. The broker pledged to reserve up to 35% of its IPO for its customers, who are apt to be enthusiastic buyers and, more importantly, hold onto them with “diamond hands” through volatile times.\nAnd, indeed, turbulence, or worse, could lie ahead,Michael Burry told our colleague Connor Smith. Burry, a key player in both the book and film versions ofThe Big Short, won a fortune by betting against the housing market before the subprime mortgage collapse. More recently, he was an early bull onGamestop(ticker: GME), but took his profits in 2020’s fourth quarter before the frenzy around the original meme stock took off. Now he’s warning that the craze will end in tears.\n“I don’t know when meme stocks such as this will crash, but we probably do not have to wait too long, as I believe the retail crowd is fully invested in this theme, and Wall Street has jumped on the coattails,” he told Connor in an email. “We’re running out of new money available to jump on the bandwagon.”\nThe Robinhood offering wouldn’t be the first stock sale that could be a top-of-the-market event. Back in mid-2007,Barron’sAndrew Bary calledthe IPO ofBlackstone Group(BX) precisely that, just weeks before concerns about excesses of subprime lending rumbled through the global money markets and months before theDow Jones Industrial Averagepeaked the following October.\nAnd who could forget the parade of wacky IPOs in the late 1990s that presaged the potential of the internet, but lacked earnings or revenue or even a viable business plan? By March 2000,Barron’spublished itsseminal cover storyrevealing that these dot-com darlings were rapidly burning cash. That very month marked theNasdaq Composite’speak; the index would fall nearly 80% by October 2002.\nWhile Burry warns of a crash in meme stocks from their vastly elevated levels, which some of the companies have exploited by issuing richly valued shares, the overall market—now trading at about 21.5 times estimated earnings for the next 12 months—hasn’t approached the bubble levels of past cycles. But surveys of market strategists and institutional investors see little upside, with year-end targets averaging around 4200 on theS&P 500—shy of Thursday’s close of 4319.\nAnd while it’s always dangerous to say this, itisdifferent this time around from 2000 and 2008. Ahead of crashes in those years, the Federal Reserve had been tightening policy for some time, resulting in a flat-to-negatively sloped yield curve. Shorter-term Treasury yields were pushed above longer-term ones, leading the bond market to predict that the economy was headed for the rocks.\nNow, in contrast, the Fed has only begun talking about talking about reducing its massive purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities. That would be preparation for the initial liftoff of the Fed’s key federal-funds target rate, currently in a rock-bottom 0% to 0.25% range, in 2022 at the earliest and maybe not until 2023.\nThe yield curve has flattened a bit in the past three months, with thespread between the two- and 10-year notenarrowing to 1.23 percentage points (still a sign of an accommodative policy), from 1.59 points on March 29, according to the St. Louis Fed.\nBut there is also a psychological element at play in any market frenzy. “Most investors also seem to view the stock market as a force of nature itself. They do not fully realize that they themselves, as a group, determine the level of the market,” Nobel laureate Robert Shiller wrote in his now-classic bookIrrational Exuberance.\n“In short, the price level is driven to a certain extent by a self-fulfilling prophecy, based on similar hunches held by a vast cross-section of large and small investors and reinforced by news media that are often content to ratify this investor-induced conventional wisdom.”\nReaders can weigh the relevance of the point about traders’ hunches to the Robinhood IPO. As for the latter statement regarding the media, we demur; contrary opinion rather than conventional wisdom has beenBarron’scredo in the century since its founding.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":430,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":155063184,"gmtCreate":1625364318448,"gmtModify":1631890738312,"author":{"id":"3576390362043433","authorId":"3576390362043433","name":"chelvi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6a8a4bf7a99f1ceb457affa9db3e865","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576390362043433","idStr":"3576390362043433"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comments&nbsp;","listText":"Comments&nbsp;","text":"Comments","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/155063184","repostId":"1114445293","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1114445293","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625277820,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1114445293?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-03 10:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Robinhood’s IPO Could Be a Sign the Stock Market Has Peaked<blockquote>Robinhood的IPO可能是股市已见顶的迹象</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114445293","media":"Barron's","summary":"Nothing succeeds like excess, as the old quip goes. Until it doesn’t, which has been the distinguish","content":"<p>Nothing succeeds like excess, as the old quip goes. Until it doesn’t, which has been the distinguishing aspect of market cycles forever and, most dramatically, in this century. Unlike last year’s pandemic-induced paroxysm, the 2000 bursting of the dot-com bubble and the 2008 financial crisis were marked by initial public offerings by companies eager to seize the moment—and investors’ money.</p><p><blockquote>正如一句老话所说，没有什么比过度更成功的了。直到它没有，这一直是市场周期的显著特征，最引人注目的是在本世纪。与去年大流行引发的爆发不同，2000年互联网泡沫破裂和2008年金融危机的标志是渴望抓住时机和投资者资金的公司进行首次公开募股。</blockquote></p><p> All of which is prologue to what could shape up as this cycle’s bell-ringing event, theinitial public offering of Robinhood, the online broker that pioneered zero commissions and hooked a new generation on investing and trading. Thepaperwork was filedwith the SEC this past week. Financial details about the upstart that purports to democratize investing (and, in the process, was hit with a record$70 million fine by Finra, the brokerage business’s self-regulatory body) are discussedhere, but a few salient points are buried deep in the S-1 filing.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都是可能成为本周期敲响钟声的事件的序幕，即Robinhood的首次公开募股，这家在线经纪商开创了零佣金的先河，吸引了新一代人进行投资和交易。该文件已于上周提交给SEC。这里讨论了这家声称投资民主化的新贵的财务细节（并在此过程中被经纪业务自律机构Finra处以创纪录的7000万美元罚款），但有几个要点深深地埋藏在S-1文件中。</blockquote></p><p> Customer assets more than quadrupled, to $80.9 billion, on March 31 from the total a year earlier, with the lion’s share—some $65.1 billion—accounted for by equities. Options comprised a relatively small $2 billion in assets, but generated nearly half ($197.9 million) of the March quarter’s $420.4 million in transactions revenue. Stocks produced $133.3 million in revenue, even though assets in equities were 40 times as large as those in options. Revenue from cryptocurrencies totaled $87.6 million, with customers’ crypto assets totaling $11.6 billion.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月31日，客户资产总额比去年同期增加了四倍多，达到809亿美元，其中股票占了最大份额（约651亿美元）。期权资产规模相对较小，为20亿美元，但占3月份季度4.204亿美元交易收入的近一半（1.979亿美元）。尽管股票资产是期权资产的40倍，但股票产生了1.333亿美元的收入。来自加密货币的收入总计8760万美元，客户的加密资产总计116亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> While Robinhood makes much of opening the market to neophyte investors with limited means by letting them buy fractional shares of their favorite stocks, that’s not its biggest business. Instead, it’s speculative options trading, which exploded early this year especially among the YOLO (You Only Live Once) crowd willing to stake a few bucks on cheap, about-to-expire calls of stocks talked up on Reddit.</p><p><blockquote>虽然Robinhood非常重视向手段有限的新手投资者开放市场，让他们购买自己喜欢的股票的部分股票，但这并不是其最大的业务。相反，投机性期权交易在今年早些时候爆发，尤其是在YOLO（你只能活一次）人群中，他们愿意在Reddit上谈论的廉价、即将到期的评级股票上押上几美元。</blockquote></p><p> There are signs that the frenzied trading, which peaked during the winter, has eased with the reopening of the economy and the return to the prepandemic normal (and with it an uptick in Covid cases after a steady decline). Trading crypto might be simpler on a brokerage platform like Robinhood, but wasn’t the advantage of DeFi (decentralized finance) supposed to be that intermediaries wouldn’t be needed at all?</p><p><blockquote>有迹象表明，随着经济重新开放和恢复到大流行前的正常状态（新冠病例在稳步下降后也随之上升），在冬季达到顶峰的疯狂交易已经有所缓解。在Robinhood这样的经纪平台上交易加密货币可能更简单，但DeFi（去中心化金融）的优势不应该是根本不需要中介吗？</blockquote></p><p> Bulls on Robinhood would be betting on continued growth of its independent trading model, rather than investors using passive funds through advisors, which the filing derides. The broker pledged to reserve up to 35% of its IPO for its customers, who are apt to be enthusiastic buyers and, more importantly, hold onto them with “diamond hands” through volatile times.</p><p><blockquote>Robinhood的多头将押注于其独立交易模式的持续增长，而不是投资者通过顾问使用被动基金，文件对此进行了嘲笑。该经纪商承诺为其客户保留高达35%的IPO资金，这些客户往往是热情的买家，更重要的是，在动荡时期用“钻石手”抓住他们。</blockquote></p><p> And, indeed, turbulence, or worse, could lie ahead,Michael Burry told our colleague Connor Smith. Burry, a key player in both the book and film versions of<i>The Big Short</i>, won a fortune by betting against the housing market before the subprime mortgage collapse. More recently, he was an early bull onGamestop(ticker: GME), but took his profits in 2020’s fourth quarter before the frenzy around the original meme stock took off. Now he’s warning that the craze will end in tears.</p><p><blockquote>迈克尔·伯里告诉我们的同事康纳·史密斯，事实上，未来可能会出现动荡，甚至更糟。伯里，书和电影版本中的关键人物<i>大空头</i>，在次贷崩溃之前，通过做空房地产市场而赚了一大笔钱。最近，他是GameStop（股票代码：GME）的早期看涨者，但在围绕原始meme股票的狂热开始之前，他在2020年第四季度获利了结。现在他警告说，这种狂热将以眼泪告终。</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t know when meme stocks such as this will crash, but we probably do not have to wait too long, as I believe the retail crowd is fully invested in this theme, and Wall Street has jumped on the coattails,” he told Connor in an email. “We’re running out of new money available to jump on the bandwagon.”</p><p><blockquote>“我不知道像这样的模因股票什么时候会崩溃，但我们可能不必等太久，因为我相信散户人群已经完全投资于这个主题，而华尔街也抓住了这一机会，”他在一封电子邮件中告诉康纳。“我们已经没有新的资金来跟上潮流了。”</blockquote></p><p> The Robinhood offering wouldn’t be the first stock sale that could be a top-of-the-market event. Back in mid-2007,<i>Barron’s</i>Andrew Bary calledthe IPO ofBlackstone Group(BX) precisely that, just weeks before concerns about excesses of subprime lending rumbled through the global money markets and months before theDow Jones Industrial Averagepeaked the following October.</p><p><blockquote>Robinhood的发行并不是第一次可能成为市场顶级事件的股票销售。早在2007年中期，<i>巴伦周刊</i>安德鲁·巴里(Andrew Bary)正是这样称呼黑石集团(BX)的IPO，就在对过度次级贷款的担忧席卷全球货币市场的几周前，以及道琼斯工业平均指数在次年10月见顶的几个月前。</blockquote></p><p> And who could forget the parade of wacky IPOs in the late 1990s that presaged the potential of the internet, but lacked earnings or revenue or even a viable business plan? By March 2000,<i>Barron’s</i>published itsseminal cover storyrevealing that these dot-com darlings were rapidly burning cash. That very month marked theNasdaq Composite’speak; the index would fall nearly 80% by October 2002.</p><p><blockquote>谁能忘记20世纪90年代末一系列古怪的IPO，这些IPO预示着互联网的潜力，但缺乏盈利或收入，甚至缺乏可行的商业计划？到2000年3月，<i>巴伦周刊</i>发表了开创性的封面故事，揭示了这些互联网宠儿正在迅速烧钱。就在那个月，纳斯达克综合指数发表了讲话；到2002年10月，该指数将下跌近80%。</blockquote></p><p> While Burry warns of a crash in meme stocks from their vastly elevated levels, which some of the companies have exploited by issuing richly valued shares, the overall market—now trading at about 21.5 times estimated earnings for the next 12 months—hasn’t approached the bubble levels of past cycles. But surveys of market strategists and institutional investors see little upside, with year-end targets averaging around 4200 on theS&amp;P 500—shy of Thursday’s close of 4319.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Burry警告称，模因股票将从大幅上涨的水平暴跌（一些公司通过发行估值丰厚的股票来利用这一点），但整体市场——目前的交易价格约为未来12个月预期市盈率的21.5倍——尚未接近过去周期的泡沫水平。但对市场策略师和机构投资者的调查认为上涨空间不大，标准普尔500指数的年终目标平均约为4200点，低于周四收盘价4319点。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> And while it’s always dangerous to say this, it<i>is</i>different this time around from 2000 and 2008. Ahead of crashes in those years, the Federal Reserve had been tightening policy for some time, resulting in a flat-to-negatively sloped yield curve. Shorter-term Treasury yields were pushed above longer-term ones, leading the bond market to predict that the economy was headed for the rocks.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这么说总是很危险，但<i>是</i>这一次与2000年和2008年不同。在那些年的崩盘之前，美联储已经收紧政策一段时间了，导致收益率曲线持平至负斜率。短期国债收益率被推高至长期国债收益率之上，导致债券市场预测经济将走向悬崖。</blockquote></p><p> Now, in contrast, the Fed has only begun talking about talking about reducing its massive purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities. That would be preparation for the initial liftoff of the Fed’s key federal-funds target rate, currently in a rock-bottom 0% to 0.25% range, in 2022 at the earliest and maybe not until 2023.</p><p><blockquote>现在，相比之下，美联储才刚刚开始谈论减少对美国国债和机构抵押贷款支持证券的大量购买。这将为美联储关键联邦基金目标利率的初步上调做准备，目前该利率处于0%至0.25%的最低范围，最早将于2022年，也可能要到2023年。</blockquote></p><p> The yield curve has flattened a bit in the past three months, with thespread between the two- and 10-year notenarrowing to 1.23 percentage points (still a sign of an accommodative policy), from 1.59 points on March 29, according to the St. Louis Fed.</p><p><blockquote>根据圣路易斯的数据，过去三个月收益率曲线略有平坦，2年期和10年期国债之间的利差从3月29日的1.59个百分点收窄至1.23个百分点（仍然是宽松政策的迹象）美联储。</blockquote></p><p> But there is also a psychological element at play in any market frenzy. “Most investors also seem to view the stock market as a force of nature itself. They do not fully realize that they themselves, as a group, determine the level of the market,” Nobel laureate Robert Shiller wrote in his now-classic book<i>Irrational Exuberance</i>.</p><p><blockquote>但任何市场狂热也有心理因素在起作用。诺贝尔奖得主罗伯特·席勒在他的经典著作中写道：“大多数投资者似乎也将股市本身视为一种自然力量。他们没有充分意识到，作为一个群体，他们自己决定了市场的水平。”<i>非理性繁荣</i>.</blockquote></p><p> “In short, the price level is driven to a certain extent by a self-fulfilling prophecy, based on similar hunches held by a vast cross-section of large and small investors and reinforced by news media that are often content to ratify this investor-induced conventional wisdom.”</p><p><blockquote>“简而言之，价格水平在一定程度上是由自我实现的预言驱动的，该预言基于广大大小投资者持有的类似预感，并得到新闻媒体的强化，这些媒体往往满足于认可这种投资者诱导的传统智慧。”</blockquote></p><p> Readers can weigh the relevance of the point about traders’ hunches to the Robinhood IPO. As for the latter statement regarding the media, we demur; contrary opinion rather than conventional wisdom has been<i>Barron’s</i>credo in the century since its founding.</p><p><blockquote>读者可以权衡交易者的预感与Robinhood IPO的相关性。至于后一种关于媒体的说法，我们表示反对；相反的意见而不是传统的智慧<i>巴伦周刊</i>自成立以来的一个世纪里的信条。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Robinhood’s IPO Could Be a Sign the Stock Market Has Peaked<blockquote>Robinhood的IPO可能是股市已见顶的迹象</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRobinhood’s IPO Could Be a Sign the Stock Market Has Peaked<blockquote>Robinhood的IPO可能是股市已见顶的迹象</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-03 10:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Nothing succeeds like excess, as the old quip goes. Until it doesn’t, which has been the distinguishing aspect of market cycles forever and, most dramatically, in this century. Unlike last year’s pandemic-induced paroxysm, the 2000 bursting of the dot-com bubble and the 2008 financial crisis were marked by initial public offerings by companies eager to seize the moment—and investors’ money.</p><p><blockquote>正如一句老话所说，没有什么比过度更成功的了。直到它没有，这一直是市场周期的显著特征，最引人注目的是在本世纪。与去年大流行引发的爆发不同，2000年互联网泡沫破裂和2008年金融危机的标志是渴望抓住时机和投资者资金的公司进行首次公开募股。</blockquote></p><p> All of which is prologue to what could shape up as this cycle’s bell-ringing event, theinitial public offering of Robinhood, the online broker that pioneered zero commissions and hooked a new generation on investing and trading. Thepaperwork was filedwith the SEC this past week. Financial details about the upstart that purports to democratize investing (and, in the process, was hit with a record$70 million fine by Finra, the brokerage business’s self-regulatory body) are discussedhere, but a few salient points are buried deep in the S-1 filing.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都是可能成为本周期敲响钟声的事件的序幕，即Robinhood的首次公开募股，这家在线经纪商开创了零佣金的先河，吸引了新一代人进行投资和交易。该文件已于上周提交给SEC。这里讨论了这家声称投资民主化的新贵的财务细节（并在此过程中被经纪业务自律机构Finra处以创纪录的7000万美元罚款），但有几个要点深深地埋藏在S-1文件中。</blockquote></p><p> Customer assets more than quadrupled, to $80.9 billion, on March 31 from the total a year earlier, with the lion’s share—some $65.1 billion—accounted for by equities. Options comprised a relatively small $2 billion in assets, but generated nearly half ($197.9 million) of the March quarter’s $420.4 million in transactions revenue. Stocks produced $133.3 million in revenue, even though assets in equities were 40 times as large as those in options. Revenue from cryptocurrencies totaled $87.6 million, with customers’ crypto assets totaling $11.6 billion.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月31日，客户资产总额比去年同期增加了四倍多，达到809亿美元，其中股票占了最大份额（约651亿美元）。期权资产规模相对较小，为20亿美元，但占3月份季度4.204亿美元交易收入的近一半（1.979亿美元）。尽管股票资产是期权资产的40倍，但股票产生了1.333亿美元的收入。来自加密货币的收入总计8760万美元，客户的加密资产总计116亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> While Robinhood makes much of opening the market to neophyte investors with limited means by letting them buy fractional shares of their favorite stocks, that’s not its biggest business. Instead, it’s speculative options trading, which exploded early this year especially among the YOLO (You Only Live Once) crowd willing to stake a few bucks on cheap, about-to-expire calls of stocks talked up on Reddit.</p><p><blockquote>虽然Robinhood非常重视向手段有限的新手投资者开放市场，让他们购买自己喜欢的股票的部分股票，但这并不是其最大的业务。相反，投机性期权交易在今年早些时候爆发，尤其是在YOLO（你只能活一次）人群中，他们愿意在Reddit上谈论的廉价、即将到期的评级股票上押上几美元。</blockquote></p><p> There are signs that the frenzied trading, which peaked during the winter, has eased with the reopening of the economy and the return to the prepandemic normal (and with it an uptick in Covid cases after a steady decline). Trading crypto might be simpler on a brokerage platform like Robinhood, but wasn’t the advantage of DeFi (decentralized finance) supposed to be that intermediaries wouldn’t be needed at all?</p><p><blockquote>有迹象表明，随着经济重新开放和恢复到大流行前的正常状态（新冠病例在稳步下降后也随之上升），在冬季达到顶峰的疯狂交易已经有所缓解。在Robinhood这样的经纪平台上交易加密货币可能更简单，但DeFi（去中心化金融）的优势不应该是根本不需要中介吗？</blockquote></p><p> Bulls on Robinhood would be betting on continued growth of its independent trading model, rather than investors using passive funds through advisors, which the filing derides. The broker pledged to reserve up to 35% of its IPO for its customers, who are apt to be enthusiastic buyers and, more importantly, hold onto them with “diamond hands” through volatile times.</p><p><blockquote>Robinhood的多头将押注于其独立交易模式的持续增长，而不是投资者通过顾问使用被动基金，文件对此进行了嘲笑。该经纪商承诺为其客户保留高达35%的IPO资金，这些客户往往是热情的买家，更重要的是，在动荡时期用“钻石手”抓住他们。</blockquote></p><p> And, indeed, turbulence, or worse, could lie ahead,Michael Burry told our colleague Connor Smith. Burry, a key player in both the book and film versions of<i>The Big Short</i>, won a fortune by betting against the housing market before the subprime mortgage collapse. More recently, he was an early bull onGamestop(ticker: GME), but took his profits in 2020’s fourth quarter before the frenzy around the original meme stock took off. Now he’s warning that the craze will end in tears.</p><p><blockquote>迈克尔·伯里告诉我们的同事康纳·史密斯，事实上，未来可能会出现动荡，甚至更糟。伯里，书和电影版本中的关键人物<i>大空头</i>，在次贷崩溃之前，通过做空房地产市场而赚了一大笔钱。最近，他是GameStop（股票代码：GME）的早期看涨者，但在围绕原始meme股票的狂热开始之前，他在2020年第四季度获利了结。现在他警告说，这种狂热将以眼泪告终。</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t know when meme stocks such as this will crash, but we probably do not have to wait too long, as I believe the retail crowd is fully invested in this theme, and Wall Street has jumped on the coattails,” he told Connor in an email. “We’re running out of new money available to jump on the bandwagon.”</p><p><blockquote>“我不知道像这样的模因股票什么时候会崩溃，但我们可能不必等太久，因为我相信散户人群已经完全投资于这个主题，而华尔街也抓住了这一机会，”他在一封电子邮件中告诉康纳。“我们已经没有新的资金来跟上潮流了。”</blockquote></p><p> The Robinhood offering wouldn’t be the first stock sale that could be a top-of-the-market event. Back in mid-2007,<i>Barron’s</i>Andrew Bary calledthe IPO ofBlackstone Group(BX) precisely that, just weeks before concerns about excesses of subprime lending rumbled through the global money markets and months before theDow Jones Industrial Averagepeaked the following October.</p><p><blockquote>Robinhood的发行并不是第一次可能成为市场顶级事件的股票销售。早在2007年中期，<i>巴伦周刊</i>安德鲁·巴里(Andrew Bary)正是这样称呼黑石集团(BX)的IPO，就在对过度次级贷款的担忧席卷全球货币市场的几周前，以及道琼斯工业平均指数在次年10月见顶的几个月前。</blockquote></p><p> And who could forget the parade of wacky IPOs in the late 1990s that presaged the potential of the internet, but lacked earnings or revenue or even a viable business plan? By March 2000,<i>Barron’s</i>published itsseminal cover storyrevealing that these dot-com darlings were rapidly burning cash. That very month marked theNasdaq Composite’speak; the index would fall nearly 80% by October 2002.</p><p><blockquote>谁能忘记20世纪90年代末一系列古怪的IPO，这些IPO预示着互联网的潜力，但缺乏盈利或收入，甚至缺乏可行的商业计划？到2000年3月，<i>巴伦周刊</i>发表了开创性的封面故事，揭示了这些互联网宠儿正在迅速烧钱。就在那个月，纳斯达克综合指数发表了讲话；到2002年10月，该指数将下跌近80%。</blockquote></p><p> While Burry warns of a crash in meme stocks from their vastly elevated levels, which some of the companies have exploited by issuing richly valued shares, the overall market—now trading at about 21.5 times estimated earnings for the next 12 months—hasn’t approached the bubble levels of past cycles. But surveys of market strategists and institutional investors see little upside, with year-end targets averaging around 4200 on theS&amp;P 500—shy of Thursday’s close of 4319.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Burry警告称，模因股票将从大幅上涨的水平暴跌（一些公司通过发行估值丰厚的股票来利用这一点），但整体市场——目前的交易价格约为未来12个月预期市盈率的21.5倍——尚未接近过去周期的泡沫水平。但对市场策略师和机构投资者的调查认为上涨空间不大，标准普尔500指数的年终目标平均约为4200点，低于周四收盘价4319点。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> And while it’s always dangerous to say this, it<i>is</i>different this time around from 2000 and 2008. Ahead of crashes in those years, the Federal Reserve had been tightening policy for some time, resulting in a flat-to-negatively sloped yield curve. Shorter-term Treasury yields were pushed above longer-term ones, leading the bond market to predict that the economy was headed for the rocks.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这么说总是很危险，但<i>是</i>这一次与2000年和2008年不同。在那些年的崩盘之前，美联储已经收紧政策一段时间了，导致收益率曲线持平至负斜率。短期国债收益率被推高至长期国债收益率之上，导致债券市场预测经济将走向悬崖。</blockquote></p><p> Now, in contrast, the Fed has only begun talking about talking about reducing its massive purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities. That would be preparation for the initial liftoff of the Fed’s key federal-funds target rate, currently in a rock-bottom 0% to 0.25% range, in 2022 at the earliest and maybe not until 2023.</p><p><blockquote>现在，相比之下，美联储才刚刚开始谈论减少对美国国债和机构抵押贷款支持证券的大量购买。这将为美联储关键联邦基金目标利率的初步上调做准备，目前该利率处于0%至0.25%的最低范围，最早将于2022年，也可能要到2023年。</blockquote></p><p> The yield curve has flattened a bit in the past three months, with thespread between the two- and 10-year notenarrowing to 1.23 percentage points (still a sign of an accommodative policy), from 1.59 points on March 29, according to the St. Louis Fed.</p><p><blockquote>根据圣路易斯的数据，过去三个月收益率曲线略有平坦，2年期和10年期国债之间的利差从3月29日的1.59个百分点收窄至1.23个百分点（仍然是宽松政策的迹象）美联储。</blockquote></p><p> But there is also a psychological element at play in any market frenzy. “Most investors also seem to view the stock market as a force of nature itself. They do not fully realize that they themselves, as a group, determine the level of the market,” Nobel laureate Robert Shiller wrote in his now-classic book<i>Irrational Exuberance</i>.</p><p><blockquote>但任何市场狂热也有心理因素在起作用。诺贝尔奖得主罗伯特·席勒在他的经典著作中写道：“大多数投资者似乎也将股市本身视为一种自然力量。他们没有充分意识到，作为一个群体，他们自己决定了市场的水平。”<i>非理性繁荣</i>.</blockquote></p><p> “In short, the price level is driven to a certain extent by a self-fulfilling prophecy, based on similar hunches held by a vast cross-section of large and small investors and reinforced by news media that are often content to ratify this investor-induced conventional wisdom.”</p><p><blockquote>“简而言之，价格水平在一定程度上是由自我实现的预言驱动的，该预言基于广大大小投资者持有的类似预感，并得到新闻媒体的强化，这些媒体往往满足于认可这种投资者诱导的传统智慧。”</blockquote></p><p> Readers can weigh the relevance of the point about traders’ hunches to the Robinhood IPO. As for the latter statement regarding the media, we demur; contrary opinion rather than conventional wisdom has been<i>Barron’s</i>credo in the century since its founding.</p><p><blockquote>读者可以权衡交易者的预感与Robinhood IPO的相关性。至于后一种关于媒体的说法，我们表示反对；相反的意见而不是传统的智慧<i>巴伦周刊</i>自成立以来的一个世纪里的信条。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/analyst-explains-why-netflix-should-sell-ads-51624987059\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/analyst-explains-why-netflix-should-sell-ads-51624987059","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114445293","content_text":"Nothing succeeds like excess, as the old quip goes. Until it doesn’t, which has been the distinguishing aspect of market cycles forever and, most dramatically, in this century. Unlike last year’s pandemic-induced paroxysm, the 2000 bursting of the dot-com bubble and the 2008 financial crisis were marked by initial public offerings by companies eager to seize the moment—and investors’ money.\nAll of which is prologue to what could shape up as this cycle’s bell-ringing event, theinitial public offering of Robinhood, the online broker that pioneered zero commissions and hooked a new generation on investing and trading. Thepaperwork was filedwith the SEC this past week. Financial details about the upstart that purports to democratize investing (and, in the process, was hit with a record$70 million fine by Finra, the brokerage business’s self-regulatory body) are discussedhere, but a few salient points are buried deep in the S-1 filing.\nCustomer assets more than quadrupled, to $80.9 billion, on March 31 from the total a year earlier, with the lion’s share—some $65.1 billion—accounted for by equities. Options comprised a relatively small $2 billion in assets, but generated nearly half ($197.9 million) of the March quarter’s $420.4 million in transactions revenue. Stocks produced $133.3 million in revenue, even though assets in equities were 40 times as large as those in options. Revenue from cryptocurrencies totaled $87.6 million, with customers’ crypto assets totaling $11.6 billion.\nWhile Robinhood makes much of opening the market to neophyte investors with limited means by letting them buy fractional shares of their favorite stocks, that’s not its biggest business. Instead, it’s speculative options trading, which exploded early this year especially among the YOLO (You Only Live Once) crowd willing to stake a few bucks on cheap, about-to-expire calls of stocks talked up on Reddit.\nThere are signs that the frenzied trading, which peaked during the winter, has eased with the reopening of the economy and the return to the prepandemic normal (and with it an uptick in Covid cases after a steady decline). Trading crypto might be simpler on a brokerage platform like Robinhood, but wasn’t the advantage of DeFi (decentralized finance) supposed to be that intermediaries wouldn’t be needed at all?\nBulls on Robinhood would be betting on continued growth of its independent trading model, rather than investors using passive funds through advisors, which the filing derides. The broker pledged to reserve up to 35% of its IPO for its customers, who are apt to be enthusiastic buyers and, more importantly, hold onto them with “diamond hands” through volatile times.\nAnd, indeed, turbulence, or worse, could lie ahead,Michael Burry told our colleague Connor Smith. Burry, a key player in both the book and film versions ofThe Big Short, won a fortune by betting against the housing market before the subprime mortgage collapse. More recently, he was an early bull onGamestop(ticker: GME), but took his profits in 2020’s fourth quarter before the frenzy around the original meme stock took off. Now he’s warning that the craze will end in tears.\n“I don’t know when meme stocks such as this will crash, but we probably do not have to wait too long, as I believe the retail crowd is fully invested in this theme, and Wall Street has jumped on the coattails,” he told Connor in an email. “We’re running out of new money available to jump on the bandwagon.”\nThe Robinhood offering wouldn’t be the first stock sale that could be a top-of-the-market event. Back in mid-2007,Barron’sAndrew Bary calledthe IPO ofBlackstone Group(BX) precisely that, just weeks before concerns about excesses of subprime lending rumbled through the global money markets and months before theDow Jones Industrial Averagepeaked the following October.\nAnd who could forget the parade of wacky IPOs in the late 1990s that presaged the potential of the internet, but lacked earnings or revenue or even a viable business plan? By March 2000,Barron’spublished itsseminal cover storyrevealing that these dot-com darlings were rapidly burning cash. That very month marked theNasdaq Composite’speak; the index would fall nearly 80% by October 2002.\nWhile Burry warns of a crash in meme stocks from their vastly elevated levels, which some of the companies have exploited by issuing richly valued shares, the overall market—now trading at about 21.5 times estimated earnings for the next 12 months—hasn’t approached the bubble levels of past cycles. But surveys of market strategists and institutional investors see little upside, with year-end targets averaging around 4200 on theS&P 500—shy of Thursday’s close of 4319.\nAnd while it’s always dangerous to say this, itisdifferent this time around from 2000 and 2008. Ahead of crashes in those years, the Federal Reserve had been tightening policy for some time, resulting in a flat-to-negatively sloped yield curve. Shorter-term Treasury yields were pushed above longer-term ones, leading the bond market to predict that the economy was headed for the rocks.\nNow, in contrast, the Fed has only begun talking about talking about reducing its massive purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities. That would be preparation for the initial liftoff of the Fed’s key federal-funds target rate, currently in a rock-bottom 0% to 0.25% range, in 2022 at the earliest and maybe not until 2023.\nThe yield curve has flattened a bit in the past three months, with thespread between the two- and 10-year notenarrowing to 1.23 percentage points (still a sign of an accommodative policy), from 1.59 points on March 29, according to the St. Louis Fed.\nBut there is also a psychological element at play in any market frenzy. “Most investors also seem to view the stock market as a force of nature itself. They do not fully realize that they themselves, as a group, determine the level of the market,” Nobel laureate Robert Shiller wrote in his now-classic bookIrrational Exuberance.\n“In short, the price level is driven to a certain extent by a self-fulfilling prophecy, based on similar hunches held by a vast cross-section of large and small investors and reinforced by news media that are often content to ratify this investor-induced conventional wisdom.”\nReaders can weigh the relevance of the point about traders’ hunches to the Robinhood IPO. As for the latter statement regarding the media, we demur; contrary opinion rather than conventional wisdom has beenBarron’scredo in the century since its founding.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":555,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":155069615,"gmtCreate":1625364294337,"gmtModify":1631890738315,"author":{"id":"3576390362043433","authorId":"3576390362043433","name":"chelvi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6a8a4bf7a99f1ceb457affa9db3e865","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576390362043433","idStr":"3576390362043433"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/155069615","repostId":"1188153141","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188153141","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625276221,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1188153141?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-03 09:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Suze Orman worries about a market crash — here's what you should do<blockquote>Suze Orman担心市场崩盘——以下是您应该做的</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188153141","media":"MoneyWise","summary":"As stock markets continue setting records, fallout from COVID-19 continues to create problems for th","content":"<p>As stock markets continue setting records, fallout from COVID-19 continues to create problems for the economy.</p><p><blockquote>随着股市继续创下纪录，新冠肺炎的影响继续给经济带来问题。</blockquote></p><p> That clash has worried investing experts, including Suze Orman, who's gone so far as to say she’s now preparing for an inevitable market crash.</p><p><blockquote>这场冲突让投资专家感到担忧，其中包括苏茜·欧曼(Suze Orman)，她甚至表示，她现在正在为不可避免的市场崩盘做准备。</blockquote></p><p> And a famous measurement popularized by Warren Buffett — known as the Buffett Indicator — shows Orman might be onto something.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特推广的一项著名指标——巴菲特指标——表明奥曼可能有所发现。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s an explanation of where the concern is coming from and some techniques you can use tokeep your investment portfolio growingeven if the market goes south.</p><p><blockquote>以下解释了这种担忧的来源，以及即使市场下跌，您也可以使用一些技巧来保持投资组合的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What does Suze Orman think?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苏西·奥曼是怎么想的？</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be8dc3ad363faad96bc575a22235562d\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Mediapunch/Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>Mediapunch/Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> Suze Orman has avidly watched the market for decades. She knows ups and downs are to be expected, but what she’s seeing happen with investment fads like GameStop has her concerned.</p><p><blockquote>几十年来，Suze Orman一直热切关注市场。她知道起起落落是意料之中的，但她所看到的像游戏驿站这样的投资时尚所发生的事情让她感到担忧。</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t like what I see happening in the market right now,” Orman said in a video for CNBC. “The economy has been horrible, but the stock market has been going.”</p><p><blockquote>“我不喜欢现在市场上发生的事情，”奥曼在CNBC的视频中表示。“经济一直很糟糕，但股市一直在上涨。”</blockquote></p><p> While investing is as easy now asusing a smartphone app, Orman is concerned about where we can go from these record highs.</p><p><blockquote>虽然现在投资就像使用智能手机应用程序一样容易，但奥曼担心我们能从这些历史高点走向何方。</blockquote></p><p> And even with stimulus checks, which are still going out, and the real estate market breaking its own records last year, Orman worries about what will come with the coronavirus — especially as new variants continue to pop up.</p><p><blockquote>即使刺激支票仍在发放，房地产市场去年也打破了自己的记录，奥曼仍担心冠状病毒会带来什么——特别是在新变种不断出现的情况下。</blockquote></p><p> What's more, she feels it’s just been too long since the last crash to stay this high much longer.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，她觉得距离上次崩盘已经太久了，不能再保持这么高的高度了。</blockquote></p><p> “This reminds me of 2000 all over again,” Orman says.</p><p><blockquote>“这让我又想起了2000年，”奥曼说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Buffett Indicator</b></p><p><blockquote><b>巴菲特指标</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44ada32ecadcc4581fed208f4f4e4d53\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Larry W Smith/EPA/Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>拉里·W·史密斯/EPA/Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> One metric Warren Buffett uses to assess the market so regularly that it’s been named after him has been flashing red for long enough that market watchers are starting to wonder if it’s an outdated tool.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特经常用来评估市场的一项指标，以他的名字命名，已经亮起红灯足够长的时间，以至于市场观察人士开始怀疑这是否是一个过时的工具。</blockquote></p><p> But the Buffett Indicator, a measurement of the ratio of the stock market’s total value against U.S. economic output, continues to climb to previously unseen levels.</p><p><blockquote>但衡量股市总价值与美国经济产出比率的巴菲特指标继续攀升至前所未有的水平。</blockquote></p><p> And those in the know are wondering if it's a sign that we’re about to see a hard fall.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士想知道这是否是我们即将看到严重下跌的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> How to prepare for a crash<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ad912a6b4611d9e39b46d2851c78c9e\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Freedomz / Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>如何为崩溃做好准备Freedomz/Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> Orman has three recommendations for setting up a simple investment strategy to help you successfully navigate any sharp turns in the market.</p><p><blockquote>Orman提出了三个建立简单投资策略的建议，以帮助您成功应对市场的任何急转弯。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Buy low</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.低吸</b></blockquote></p><p> Part of what upsets Orman so much about the furor over meme stocks like GameStop is it goes completely against the average investor’s interests.</p><p><blockquote>奥曼对游戏驿站等模因股票的狂热感到如此不安的部分原因是，它完全违背了普通投资者的利益。</blockquote></p><p> “All of you have your heads screwed on backwards,” she says. “All you want is for these markets to go up and up and up. What good is that going to do you?”</p><p><blockquote>“你们所有人的头都被拧到了后面，”她说。“你想要的只是这些市场不断上涨。这对你有什么好处？”</blockquote></p><p> She points out the only extra money most people have goes towardinvesting for retirementin their 401(k) or IRA plans.</p><p><blockquote>她指出，大多数人唯一的额外资金用于投资401(k)或IRA计划的退休生活。</blockquote></p><p> Because you probably don’t plan to touch that money for decades, the best long-term strategy is to buy low. That way, your dollar will go much further now, leaving plenty of room for growth over the next 20, 30 or 40 years.</p><p><blockquote>因为你可能几十年内都不打算碰这笔钱，所以最好的长期策略是低吸。这样，你的美元现在将走得更远，为未来20年、30年或40年留下足够的增长空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Invest on a schedule</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.按计划投资</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4102f8a6d5002090743b1cbded32ef9\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">katjen / Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>卡珍/Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> While she prefers to buy low, Orman doesn’t recommend you stop investing completely when the market goes up.</p><p><blockquote>虽然她更喜欢低价买入，但奥曼不建议你在市场上涨时完全停止投资。</blockquote></p><p> She wants casual investors to not get caught up in the daily ups and downs of the market.</p><p><blockquote>她希望普通投资者不要陷入市场每天的涨跌之中。</blockquote></p><p> In fact, cheering for downturns now may be your best bet at getting a larger piece of very profitable investments — like some lucky investors were able to do back in 2007 and 2008.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，现在为经济低迷欢呼可能是您获得更大份额利润丰厚的投资的最佳选择——就像一些幸运的投资者在2007年和2008年所做的那样。</blockquote></p><p> “When the market went down, down, down you could buy things at nothing,” says Orman. “And now look at them 15 years later.”</p><p><blockquote>“当市场下跌、下跌、下跌时，你可以免费购买东西，”奥曼说。“现在看看15年后的它们。”</blockquote></p><p> She suggests you set up a dollar-cost averaging strategy, which means you invest your money in equal portions at regular intervals, regardless of the market’s fluctuations.</p><p><blockquote>她建议你建立一个平均成本策略，这意味着无论市场波动如何，你都要定期等量投资。</blockquote></p><p> This kind of approach is easy to implement with any of the many investing apps currently available to DIY investors.</p><p><blockquote>这种方法很容易用目前可供DIY投资者使用的许多投资应用程序中的任何一个来实施。</blockquote></p><p> There are even apps that willautomatically invest your spare changeby rounding up your debit and credit card purchases to the nearest dollar.</p><p><blockquote>甚至有些应用程序会通过将您的借记卡和信用卡购买的金额四舍五入到最接近的美元来自动投资您的零钱。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Diversify with fractional shares</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.通过零碎股份实现多元化</b></blockquote></p><p> To help weather dips in specific corners of the market, Orman suggests you diversify your investments — balance your portfolio with investments in many different types of assets and sectors of the economy.</p><p><blockquote>为了帮助应对市场特定角落的下跌，奥曼建议您分散投资——通过投资多种不同类型的资产和经济部门来平衡您的投资组合。</blockquote></p><p> Orman particularly recommends fractional-share investing. This approach allows you to buy a slice of a share for a big-name company that you otherwise wouldn’t be able to afford.</p><p><blockquote>奥曼特别推荐零股投资。这种方法允许你购买一家知名公司的一部分股份，否则你将买不起。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> With the help of apopular stock-trading tool, anyone at any budget can afford the fractional share strategy.</p><p><blockquote>在流行的股票交易工具的帮助下，任何预算的人都可以负担得起碎股策略。</blockquote></p><p> “The sooner you begin, the more money you will have,” says Orman. “Just don’t stop, and when these markets go down, you should be so happy because your dollars find more shares.”</p><p><blockquote>“你越早开始，你拥有的钱就越多，”奥曼说。“只是不要停下来，当这些市场下跌时，你应该很高兴，因为你的美元找到了更多的份额。”</blockquote></p><p> “And the more shares you have, the more money you’ll have 20, 40, 50 years from now.”</p><p><blockquote>“你拥有的股票越多，20年、40年、50年后你拥有的钱就越多。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>What else you can do</b></p><p><blockquote><b>你还能做什么</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e79c6fd1f8fa6e3a7c3a6c94f1e14b5\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">goodluz / Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>古德卢兹/Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> Whether or not a big crash is around the corner, investors who are still decades out from retirement can make that work for them, Orman said in theCNBC video.</p><p><blockquote>奥曼在CNBC视频中表示，无论大崩盘是否即将来临，距离退休还有几十年的投资者都可以利用这一点。</blockquote></p><p> First, prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Since the onset of the pandemic, Orman now recommends everyone have an emergency fund that can cover their expenses for a full year.</p><p><blockquote>第一，做最坏的打算，抱最好的希望。自从疫情爆发以来，奥曼现在建议每个人都有一个应急基金，可以支付他们一整年的费用。</blockquote></p><p> Then, to set yourself up fora comfortable retirement, she suggests you opt for a Roth account, whether that’s a 401(k) or IRA.</p><p><blockquote>然后，为了让自己过上舒适的退休生活，她建议您选择Roth账户，无论是401(k)还是IRA。</blockquote></p><p> That will help you avoid paying tax when you take money out of your retirement account because your contributions to a Roth account are made after tax. Traditional IRAs, on the other hand, aren’t taxed when you make contributions, so you’ll end up paying later.</p><p><blockquote>这将帮助您在从退休账户中提取资金时避免纳税，因为您对罗斯账户的供款是税后进行的。另一方面，传统IRA在您缴款时无需纳税，因此您最终会稍后付款。</blockquote></p><p> If you find you need a little more guidance, working with aprofessional financial adviser, can help point you in the right direction so you can confidently ride out any market volatility.</p><p><blockquote>如果您发现需要更多指导，与专业财务顾问合作可以帮助您指出正确的方向，以便您可以自信地度过任何市场波动。</blockquote></p><p> While everyone else is veering off course or overcorrecting, you’ll be firmly in the driver’s seat with your sunset years planned for.</p><p><blockquote>当其他人都在偏离路线或矫枉过正时，你将牢牢地坐在驾驶座上，计划好你的晚年。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1621813427262","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Suze Orman worries about a market crash — here's what you should do<blockquote>Suze Orman担心市场崩盘——以下是您应该做的</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSuze Orman worries about a market crash — here's what you should do<blockquote>Suze Orman担心市场崩盘——以下是您应该做的</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MoneyWise</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-03 09:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>As stock markets continue setting records, fallout from COVID-19 continues to create problems for the economy.</p><p><blockquote>随着股市继续创下纪录，新冠肺炎的影响继续给经济带来问题。</blockquote></p><p> That clash has worried investing experts, including Suze Orman, who's gone so far as to say she’s now preparing for an inevitable market crash.</p><p><blockquote>这场冲突让投资专家感到担忧，其中包括苏茜·欧曼(Suze Orman)，她甚至表示，她现在正在为不可避免的市场崩盘做准备。</blockquote></p><p> And a famous measurement popularized by Warren Buffett — known as the Buffett Indicator — shows Orman might be onto something.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特推广的一项著名指标——巴菲特指标——表明奥曼可能有所发现。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s an explanation of where the concern is coming from and some techniques you can use tokeep your investment portfolio growingeven if the market goes south.</p><p><blockquote>以下解释了这种担忧的来源，以及即使市场下跌，您也可以使用一些技巧来保持投资组合的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What does Suze Orman think?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苏西·奥曼是怎么想的？</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be8dc3ad363faad96bc575a22235562d\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Mediapunch/Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>Mediapunch/Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> Suze Orman has avidly watched the market for decades. She knows ups and downs are to be expected, but what she’s seeing happen with investment fads like GameStop has her concerned.</p><p><blockquote>几十年来，Suze Orman一直热切关注市场。她知道起起落落是意料之中的，但她所看到的像游戏驿站这样的投资时尚所发生的事情让她感到担忧。</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t like what I see happening in the market right now,” Orman said in a video for CNBC. “The economy has been horrible, but the stock market has been going.”</p><p><blockquote>“我不喜欢现在市场上发生的事情，”奥曼在CNBC的视频中表示。“经济一直很糟糕，但股市一直在上涨。”</blockquote></p><p> While investing is as easy now asusing a smartphone app, Orman is concerned about where we can go from these record highs.</p><p><blockquote>虽然现在投资就像使用智能手机应用程序一样容易，但奥曼担心我们能从这些历史高点走向何方。</blockquote></p><p> And even with stimulus checks, which are still going out, and the real estate market breaking its own records last year, Orman worries about what will come with the coronavirus — especially as new variants continue to pop up.</p><p><blockquote>即使刺激支票仍在发放，房地产市场去年也打破了自己的记录，奥曼仍担心冠状病毒会带来什么——特别是在新变种不断出现的情况下。</blockquote></p><p> What's more, she feels it’s just been too long since the last crash to stay this high much longer.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，她觉得距离上次崩盘已经太久了，不能再保持这么高的高度了。</blockquote></p><p> “This reminds me of 2000 all over again,” Orman says.</p><p><blockquote>“这让我又想起了2000年，”奥曼说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Buffett Indicator</b></p><p><blockquote><b>巴菲特指标</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44ada32ecadcc4581fed208f4f4e4d53\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Larry W Smith/EPA/Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>拉里·W·史密斯/EPA/Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> One metric Warren Buffett uses to assess the market so regularly that it’s been named after him has been flashing red for long enough that market watchers are starting to wonder if it’s an outdated tool.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特经常用来评估市场的一项指标，以他的名字命名，已经亮起红灯足够长的时间，以至于市场观察人士开始怀疑这是否是一个过时的工具。</blockquote></p><p> But the Buffett Indicator, a measurement of the ratio of the stock market’s total value against U.S. economic output, continues to climb to previously unseen levels.</p><p><blockquote>但衡量股市总价值与美国经济产出比率的巴菲特指标继续攀升至前所未有的水平。</blockquote></p><p> And those in the know are wondering if it's a sign that we’re about to see a hard fall.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士想知道这是否是我们即将看到严重下跌的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> How to prepare for a crash<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ad912a6b4611d9e39b46d2851c78c9e\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Freedomz / Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>如何为崩溃做好准备Freedomz/Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> Orman has three recommendations for setting up a simple investment strategy to help you successfully navigate any sharp turns in the market.</p><p><blockquote>Orman提出了三个建立简单投资策略的建议，以帮助您成功应对市场的任何急转弯。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Buy low</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.低吸</b></blockquote></p><p> Part of what upsets Orman so much about the furor over meme stocks like GameStop is it goes completely against the average investor’s interests.</p><p><blockquote>奥曼对游戏驿站等模因股票的狂热感到如此不安的部分原因是，它完全违背了普通投资者的利益。</blockquote></p><p> “All of you have your heads screwed on backwards,” she says. “All you want is for these markets to go up and up and up. What good is that going to do you?”</p><p><blockquote>“你们所有人的头都被拧到了后面，”她说。“你想要的只是这些市场不断上涨。这对你有什么好处？”</blockquote></p><p> She points out the only extra money most people have goes towardinvesting for retirementin their 401(k) or IRA plans.</p><p><blockquote>她指出，大多数人唯一的额外资金用于投资401(k)或IRA计划的退休生活。</blockquote></p><p> Because you probably don’t plan to touch that money for decades, the best long-term strategy is to buy low. That way, your dollar will go much further now, leaving plenty of room for growth over the next 20, 30 or 40 years.</p><p><blockquote>因为你可能几十年内都不打算碰这笔钱，所以最好的长期策略是低吸。这样，你的美元现在将走得更远，为未来20年、30年或40年留下足够的增长空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Invest on a schedule</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.按计划投资</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4102f8a6d5002090743b1cbded32ef9\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">katjen / Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>卡珍/Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> While she prefers to buy low, Orman doesn’t recommend you stop investing completely when the market goes up.</p><p><blockquote>虽然她更喜欢低价买入，但奥曼不建议你在市场上涨时完全停止投资。</blockquote></p><p> She wants casual investors to not get caught up in the daily ups and downs of the market.</p><p><blockquote>她希望普通投资者不要陷入市场每天的涨跌之中。</blockquote></p><p> In fact, cheering for downturns now may be your best bet at getting a larger piece of very profitable investments — like some lucky investors were able to do back in 2007 and 2008.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，现在为经济低迷欢呼可能是您获得更大份额利润丰厚的投资的最佳选择——就像一些幸运的投资者在2007年和2008年所做的那样。</blockquote></p><p> “When the market went down, down, down you could buy things at nothing,” says Orman. “And now look at them 15 years later.”</p><p><blockquote>“当市场下跌、下跌、下跌时，你可以免费购买东西，”奥曼说。“现在看看15年后的它们。”</blockquote></p><p> She suggests you set up a dollar-cost averaging strategy, which means you invest your money in equal portions at regular intervals, regardless of the market’s fluctuations.</p><p><blockquote>她建议你建立一个平均成本策略，这意味着无论市场波动如何，你都要定期等量投资。</blockquote></p><p> This kind of approach is easy to implement with any of the many investing apps currently available to DIY investors.</p><p><blockquote>这种方法很容易用目前可供DIY投资者使用的许多投资应用程序中的任何一个来实施。</blockquote></p><p> There are even apps that willautomatically invest your spare changeby rounding up your debit and credit card purchases to the nearest dollar.</p><p><blockquote>甚至有些应用程序会通过将您的借记卡和信用卡购买的金额四舍五入到最接近的美元来自动投资您的零钱。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Diversify with fractional shares</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.通过零碎股份实现多元化</b></blockquote></p><p> To help weather dips in specific corners of the market, Orman suggests you diversify your investments — balance your portfolio with investments in many different types of assets and sectors of the economy.</p><p><blockquote>为了帮助应对市场特定角落的下跌，奥曼建议您分散投资——通过投资多种不同类型的资产和经济部门来平衡您的投资组合。</blockquote></p><p> Orman particularly recommends fractional-share investing. This approach allows you to buy a slice of a share for a big-name company that you otherwise wouldn’t be able to afford.</p><p><blockquote>奥曼特别推荐零股投资。这种方法允许你购买一家知名公司的一部分股份，否则你将买不起。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> With the help of apopular stock-trading tool, anyone at any budget can afford the fractional share strategy.</p><p><blockquote>在流行的股票交易工具的帮助下，任何预算的人都可以负担得起碎股策略。</blockquote></p><p> “The sooner you begin, the more money you will have,” says Orman. “Just don’t stop, and when these markets go down, you should be so happy because your dollars find more shares.”</p><p><blockquote>“你越早开始，你拥有的钱就越多，”奥曼说。“只是不要停下来，当这些市场下跌时，你应该很高兴，因为你的美元找到了更多的份额。”</blockquote></p><p> “And the more shares you have, the more money you’ll have 20, 40, 50 years from now.”</p><p><blockquote>“你拥有的股票越多，20年、40年、50年后你拥有的钱就越多。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>What else you can do</b></p><p><blockquote><b>你还能做什么</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e79c6fd1f8fa6e3a7c3a6c94f1e14b5\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">goodluz / Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>古德卢兹/Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> Whether or not a big crash is around the corner, investors who are still decades out from retirement can make that work for them, Orman said in theCNBC video.</p><p><blockquote>奥曼在CNBC视频中表示，无论大崩盘是否即将来临，距离退休还有几十年的投资者都可以利用这一点。</blockquote></p><p> First, prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Since the onset of the pandemic, Orman now recommends everyone have an emergency fund that can cover their expenses for a full year.</p><p><blockquote>第一，做最坏的打算，抱最好的希望。自从疫情爆发以来，奥曼现在建议每个人都有一个应急基金，可以支付他们一整年的费用。</blockquote></p><p> Then, to set yourself up fora comfortable retirement, she suggests you opt for a Roth account, whether that’s a 401(k) or IRA.</p><p><blockquote>然后，为了让自己过上舒适的退休生活，她建议您选择Roth账户，无论是401(k)还是IRA。</blockquote></p><p> That will help you avoid paying tax when you take money out of your retirement account because your contributions to a Roth account are made after tax. Traditional IRAs, on the other hand, aren’t taxed when you make contributions, so you’ll end up paying later.</p><p><blockquote>这将帮助您在从退休账户中提取资金时避免纳税，因为您对罗斯账户的供款是税后进行的。另一方面，传统IRA在您缴款时无需纳税，因此您最终会稍后付款。</blockquote></p><p> If you find you need a little more guidance, working with aprofessional financial adviser, can help point you in the right direction so you can confidently ride out any market volatility.</p><p><blockquote>如果您发现需要更多指导，与专业财务顾问合作可以帮助您指出正确的方向，以便您可以自信地度过任何市场波动。</blockquote></p><p> While everyone else is veering off course or overcorrecting, you’ll be firmly in the driver’s seat with your sunset years planned for.</p><p><blockquote>当其他人都在偏离路线或矫枉过正时，你将牢牢地坐在驾驶座上，计划好你的晚年。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/suze-orman-worries-market-crash-220000108.html\">MoneyWise</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/suze-orman-worries-market-crash-220000108.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188153141","content_text":"As stock markets continue setting records, fallout from COVID-19 continues to create problems for the economy.\nThat clash has worried investing experts, including Suze Orman, who's gone so far as to say she’s now preparing for an inevitable market crash.\nAnd a famous measurement popularized by Warren Buffett — known as the Buffett Indicator — shows Orman might be onto something.\nHere’s an explanation of where the concern is coming from and some techniques you can use tokeep your investment portfolio growingeven if the market goes south.\nWhat does Suze Orman think?\nMediapunch/Shutterstock\nSuze Orman has avidly watched the market for decades. She knows ups and downs are to be expected, but what she’s seeing happen with investment fads like GameStop has her concerned.\n“I don’t like what I see happening in the market right now,” Orman said in a video for CNBC. “The economy has been horrible, but the stock market has been going.”\nWhile investing is as easy now asusing a smartphone app, Orman is concerned about where we can go from these record highs.\nAnd even with stimulus checks, which are still going out, and the real estate market breaking its own records last year, Orman worries about what will come with the coronavirus — especially as new variants continue to pop up.\nWhat's more, she feels it’s just been too long since the last crash to stay this high much longer.\n“This reminds me of 2000 all over again,” Orman says.\nThe Buffett Indicator\nLarry W Smith/EPA/Shutterstock\nOne metric Warren Buffett uses to assess the market so regularly that it’s been named after him has been flashing red for long enough that market watchers are starting to wonder if it’s an outdated tool.\nBut the Buffett Indicator, a measurement of the ratio of the stock market’s total value against U.S. economic output, continues to climb to previously unseen levels.\nAnd those in the know are wondering if it's a sign that we’re about to see a hard fall.\nHow to prepare for a crashFreedomz / Shutterstock\nOrman has three recommendations for setting up a simple investment strategy to help you successfully navigate any sharp turns in the market.\n1. Buy low\nPart of what upsets Orman so much about the furor over meme stocks like GameStop is it goes completely against the average investor’s interests.\n“All of you have your heads screwed on backwards,” she says. “All you want is for these markets to go up and up and up. What good is that going to do you?”\nShe points out the only extra money most people have goes towardinvesting for retirementin their 401(k) or IRA plans.\nBecause you probably don’t plan to touch that money for decades, the best long-term strategy is to buy low. That way, your dollar will go much further now, leaving plenty of room for growth over the next 20, 30 or 40 years.\n2. Invest on a schedule\nkatjen / Shutterstock\nWhile she prefers to buy low, Orman doesn’t recommend you stop investing completely when the market goes up.\nShe wants casual investors to not get caught up in the daily ups and downs of the market.\nIn fact, cheering for downturns now may be your best bet at getting a larger piece of very profitable investments — like some lucky investors were able to do back in 2007 and 2008.\n“When the market went down, down, down you could buy things at nothing,” says Orman. “And now look at them 15 years later.”\nShe suggests you set up a dollar-cost averaging strategy, which means you invest your money in equal portions at regular intervals, regardless of the market’s fluctuations.\nThis kind of approach is easy to implement with any of the many investing apps currently available to DIY investors.\nThere are even apps that willautomatically invest your spare changeby rounding up your debit and credit card purchases to the nearest dollar.\n3. Diversify with fractional shares\nTo help weather dips in specific corners of the market, Orman suggests you diversify your investments — balance your portfolio with investments in many different types of assets and sectors of the economy.\nOrman particularly recommends fractional-share investing. This approach allows you to buy a slice of a share for a big-name company that you otherwise wouldn’t be able to afford.\nWith the help of apopular stock-trading tool, anyone at any budget can afford the fractional share strategy.\n“The sooner you begin, the more money you will have,” says Orman. “Just don’t stop, and when these markets go down, you should be so happy because your dollars find more shares.”\n“And the more shares you have, the more money you’ll have 20, 40, 50 years from now.”\nWhat else you can do\ngoodluz / Shutterstock\nWhether or not a big crash is around the corner, investors who are still decades out from retirement can make that work for them, Orman said in theCNBC video.\nFirst, prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Since the onset of the pandemic, Orman now recommends everyone have an emergency fund that can cover their expenses for a full year.\nThen, to set yourself up fora comfortable retirement, she suggests you opt for a Roth account, whether that’s a 401(k) or IRA.\nThat will help you avoid paying tax when you take money out of your retirement account because your contributions to a Roth account are made after tax. Traditional IRAs, on the other hand, aren’t taxed when you make contributions, so you’ll end up paying later.\nIf you find you need a little more guidance, working with aprofessional financial adviser, can help point you in the right direction so you can confidently ride out any market volatility.\nWhile everyone else is veering off course or overcorrecting, you’ll be firmly in the driver’s seat with your sunset years planned for.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":460,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":155060160,"gmtCreate":1625364255550,"gmtModify":1631890738318,"author":{"id":"3576390362043433","authorId":"3576390362043433","name":"chelvi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6a8a4bf7a99f1ceb457affa9db3e865","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576390362043433","idStr":"3576390362043433"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/155060160","repostId":"1136694264","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1136694264","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1625293431,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1136694264?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-03 14:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC Options Traders Aren't Discouraged, Repeatedly Hammer Calls<blockquote>AMC期权交易员并不气馁，多次抨击评级</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136694264","media":"Benzinga","summary":"On Friday morning, Iceberg Researchannouncedit had taken a short position inAMC Entertainment Holdin","content":"<p>On Friday morning, Iceberg Researchannouncedit had taken a short position in<b>AMC Entertainment Holdings</b>AMC 4.08%. Iceberg said options traders have lost money due to the stock trading sideways for the month of June and that the pump around the stock looks shaky.</p><p><blockquote>周五上午，Iceberg Research宣布在<b>AMC院线控股</b>AMC 4.08%。Iceberg表示，由于该股6月份横盘整理，期权交易员已经亏损，而且该股周围的人气看起来不稳定。</blockquote></p><p> The news didn’t stop institutions from continuously hammering AMC call contracts and on Friday options traders had purchased over $2.59 million worth. The expiration dates for the contracts ranged from today up until Dec. 17 and a few traders chose a strike price of a whopping $145.</p><p><blockquote>这一消息并没有阻止机构不断抛售AMC看涨期权合约，周五期权交易员购买了价值超过259万美元的合约。这些合约的到期日从今天到12月17日不等，一些交易员选择了高达145美元的执行价。</blockquote></p><p> AMC’s stock broke bearishly from a symmetrical triangle it had formed through its sideways trading on Friday, but held a support level at $47.91 and bounced from it. Bulls would like to see the dip continue to be bought and for AMC to end the day by printing a hammer candlestick and closing above the 21-day exponential moving average.</p><p><blockquote>AMC的股价看跌突破了周五横盘交易形成的对称三角形，但守住了47.91美元的支撑位并从中反弹。多头希望看到继续逢低买入，并希望AMC通过打印锤子烛台并收于21日指数移动平均线上方来结束这一天。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why It’s Important:</b>When a sweep order occurs, it indicates the trader wanted to get into a position quickly and is anticipating an imminent large move in stock price. A sweeper pays market price for the call or put option instead of placing a bid, which sweeps the order book of multiple exchanges to fill the order immediately.</p><p><blockquote><b>为什么它很重要：</b>当出现扫单时，表明交易者希望快速建仓，并预计股价即将大幅波动。清扫者为看涨期权或看跌期权支付市场价格，而不是出价，清扫多个交易所的订单簿以立即执行订单。</blockquote></p><p> These types of call option orders are usually made by institutions, and retail investors can find watching for sweepers useful because it indicates “smart money” has entered into a position.</p><p><blockquote>这些类型的看涨期权期权订单通常由机构发出，散户投资者会发现观察清道夫很有用，因为这表明“聪明的资金”已经建仓。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The AMC Option Trades:</b>Below is a look at the notable options alerts, courtesy ofBenzinga Pro:</p><p><blockquote><b>AMC期权交易：</b>以下是由Benzinga Pro提供的值得注意的选项警报：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>At 9:42 a.m., Friday a trader executed a call sweep near the bid of 265 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $59 expiring on July 9. The trade represented a $52,205 bullish bet for which the trader paid $1.97 per option contract.</li>  <li>At 9:51 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the bid of 247 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $65 expiring on Aug. 20. The trade represented a $221,065 bullish bet for which the trader paid $8.95 per option contract.</li>  <li>At 9:52 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the bid of 248 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $120 expiring on Dec. 17. The trade represented a $260,400 bullish bet for which the trader paid $10.50 per option contract.</li>  <li>At 9:53 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the bid of 356 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $65 expiring on Aug. 20. The trade represented a $311,500 bullish bet for which the trader paid $8.75 per option contract.</li>  <li>At 9:53 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the bid of 310 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $65 expiring on Aug. 20. The trade represented a $266,600 bullish bet for which the trader paid $8.60 per option contract.</li>  <li>At 9:56 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the bid of 310 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $65 expiring on Aug. 20. The trade represented a $266,600 bullish bet for which the trader paid $8.60 per option contract.</li>  <li>At 9:57 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the bid of 300 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $28 expiring on July 2. The trade represented a $221,065 bullish bet for which the trader paid $23.40 per option contract.</li>  <li>At 9:58 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the bid of 289 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $120 expiring on Dec., 17. The trade represented a $303,450 bullish bet for which the trader paid $10.50 per option contract.</li>  <li>At 9:58 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the bid of 580 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $55 expiring on July 16. The trade represented a $278,400 bullish bet for which the trader paid $4.80 per option contract.</li>  <li>At 10:07 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the bid of 258 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $80 expiring on July 16. The trade represented a $39,216 bullish bet for which the trader paid $1.52 per option contract.</li>  <li>At 10:24 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the bid of 352 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $50 expiring on July 2. The trade represented a $54,560 bullish bet for which the trader paid $1.55 per option contract.</li>  <li>At 10:26 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the bid of 234 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $145 expiring on July 23. The trade represented a $39,216 bullish bet for which the trader paid $1.31 per option contract.</li>  <li>At 10:31 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the bid of 224 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $145 expiring on Sept. 17. The trade represented a $105,280 bullish bet for which the trader paid $4.70 per option contract.</li>  <li>At 10:38 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the bid of 500 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $47 expiring on July 2. The trade represented a $146,000 bullish bet for which the trader paid $2.92 per option contract.</li>  <li>At 12:02 p.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the bid of 500 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $45 expiring on July 9. The trade represented a $305,000 bullish bet for which the trader paid $6.10 per option contract.</li> </ul> <b>AMC Price Action:</b>Shares of AMC Entertainment were trading down 5.3% to $51.33 at publication time.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>周五上午9点42分，一名交易员在265份AMC院线期权的买入价附近执行了看涨期权清仓，执行价格为59美元，将于7月9日到期。该交易代表了52,205美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付了1.97美元。</li><li>上午9点51分，一名交易员在247份执行价为65美元、将于8月20日到期的AMC院线期权的买入价附近执行了看涨期权清仓。该交易代表了221,065美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付了8.95美元。</li><li>上午9点52分，一名交易员在248份执行价为120美元、将于12月17日到期的AMC院线期权的买入价附近执行了看涨期权清仓。该交易代表了260,400美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付了10.50美元。</li><li>上午9点53分，一名交易员在356份AMC院线期权的买入价附近执行了看涨期权清仓，执行价格为65美元，将于8月20日到期。该交易代表了311,500美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付了8.75美元。</li><li>上午9点53分，一名交易员在310份AMC院线期权的买入价附近执行了看涨期权清仓，执行价格为65美元，将于8月20日到期。该交易代表了266,600美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付了8.60美元。</li><li>上午9点56分，一名交易员在310份AMC院线期权的买入价附近执行了看涨期权清仓，执行价格为65美元，将于8月20日到期。该交易代表了266,600美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付了8.60美元。</li><li>上午9点57分，一名交易员在7月2日到期的300份执行价为28美元的AMC院线期权的买入价附近执行了看涨期权清仓。该交易代表了221,065美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付了23.40美元。</li><li>上午9点58分，一名交易员在289份AMC院线期权的买入价附近执行了看涨期权清仓，执行价格为120美元，将于12月17日到期。该交易代表了303,450美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付了10.50美元。</li><li>上午9点58分，一名交易员在7月16日到期的580份执行价为55美元的AMC院线期权的买入价附近执行了看涨期权清仓。该交易代表了278,400美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付了4.80美元。</li><li>上午10点07分，一名交易员在7月16日到期的258份执行价为80美元的AMC院线期权的买入价附近执行了看涨期权清仓。该交易代表39,216美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付1.52美元。</li><li>上午10点24分，一名交易员在7月2日到期的执行价为50美元的352份AMC院线期权的买入价附近执行了看涨期权清仓。该交易代表了54,560美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付了1.55美元。</li><li>上午10点26分，一名交易员在7月23日到期的234份执行价为145美元的AMC院线期权的买入价附近执行了看涨期权清仓。该交易代表39,216美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付1.31美元。</li><li>上午10点31分，一名交易员在224份AMC院线期权的买入价附近执行了看涨期权清仓，执行价为145美元，将于9月17日到期。该交易代表了105,280美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付了4.70美元。</li><li>上午10点38分，一名交易员在7月2日到期的500份执行价为47美元的AMC院线期权的买入价附近执行了看涨期权清仓。该交易代表了146,000美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付了2.92美元。</li><li>中午12点02分，一名交易员在7月9日到期的500份执行价为45美元的AMC院线期权的买入价附近执行了看涨期权清仓。该交易代表了305,000美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付了6.10美元。</li></ul><b>AMC价格走势：</b>截至发稿时，AMC院线股价下跌5.3%，至51.33美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC Options Traders Aren't Discouraged, Repeatedly Hammer Calls<blockquote>AMC期权交易员并不气馁，多次抨击评级</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC Options Traders Aren't Discouraged, Repeatedly Hammer Calls<blockquote>AMC期权交易员并不气馁，多次抨击评级</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-03 14:23</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On Friday morning, Iceberg Researchannouncedit had taken a short position in<b>AMC Entertainment Holdings</b>AMC 4.08%. Iceberg said options traders have lost money due to the stock trading sideways for the month of June and that the pump around the stock looks shaky.</p><p><blockquote>周五上午，Iceberg Research宣布在<b>AMC院线控股</b>AMC 4.08%。Iceberg表示，由于该股6月份横盘整理，期权交易员已经亏损，而且该股周围的人气看起来不稳定。</blockquote></p><p> The news didn’t stop institutions from continuously hammering AMC call contracts and on Friday options traders had purchased over $2.59 million worth. The expiration dates for the contracts ranged from today up until Dec. 17 and a few traders chose a strike price of a whopping $145.</p><p><blockquote>这一消息并没有阻止机构不断抛售AMC看涨期权合约，周五期权交易员购买了价值超过259万美元的合约。这些合约的到期日从今天到12月17日不等，一些交易员选择了高达145美元的执行价。</blockquote></p><p> AMC’s stock broke bearishly from a symmetrical triangle it had formed through its sideways trading on Friday, but held a support level at $47.91 and bounced from it. Bulls would like to see the dip continue to be bought and for AMC to end the day by printing a hammer candlestick and closing above the 21-day exponential moving average.</p><p><blockquote>AMC的股价看跌突破了周五横盘交易形成的对称三角形，但守住了47.91美元的支撑位并从中反弹。多头希望看到继续逢低买入，并希望AMC通过打印锤子烛台并收于21日指数移动平均线上方来结束这一天。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why It’s Important:</b>When a sweep order occurs, it indicates the trader wanted to get into a position quickly and is anticipating an imminent large move in stock price. A sweeper pays market price for the call or put option instead of placing a bid, which sweeps the order book of multiple exchanges to fill the order immediately.</p><p><blockquote><b>为什么它很重要：</b>当出现扫单时，表明交易者希望快速建仓，并预计股价即将大幅波动。清扫者为看涨期权或看跌期权支付市场价格，而不是出价，清扫多个交易所的订单簿以立即执行订单。</blockquote></p><p> These types of call option orders are usually made by institutions, and retail investors can find watching for sweepers useful because it indicates “smart money” has entered into a position.</p><p><blockquote>这些类型的看涨期权期权订单通常由机构发出，散户投资者会发现观察清道夫很有用，因为这表明“聪明的资金”已经建仓。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The AMC Option Trades:</b>Below is a look at the notable options alerts, courtesy ofBenzinga Pro:</p><p><blockquote><b>AMC期权交易：</b>以下是由Benzinga Pro提供的值得注意的选项警报：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>At 9:42 a.m., Friday a trader executed a call sweep near the bid of 265 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $59 expiring on July 9. The trade represented a $52,205 bullish bet for which the trader paid $1.97 per option contract.</li>  <li>At 9:51 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the bid of 247 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $65 expiring on Aug. 20. The trade represented a $221,065 bullish bet for which the trader paid $8.95 per option contract.</li>  <li>At 9:52 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the bid of 248 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $120 expiring on Dec. 17. The trade represented a $260,400 bullish bet for which the trader paid $10.50 per option contract.</li>  <li>At 9:53 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the bid of 356 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $65 expiring on Aug. 20. The trade represented a $311,500 bullish bet for which the trader paid $8.75 per option contract.</li>  <li>At 9:53 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the bid of 310 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $65 expiring on Aug. 20. The trade represented a $266,600 bullish bet for which the trader paid $8.60 per option contract.</li>  <li>At 9:56 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the bid of 310 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $65 expiring on Aug. 20. The trade represented a $266,600 bullish bet for which the trader paid $8.60 per option contract.</li>  <li>At 9:57 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the bid of 300 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $28 expiring on July 2. The trade represented a $221,065 bullish bet for which the trader paid $23.40 per option contract.</li>  <li>At 9:58 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the bid of 289 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $120 expiring on Dec., 17. The trade represented a $303,450 bullish bet for which the trader paid $10.50 per option contract.</li>  <li>At 9:58 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the bid of 580 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $55 expiring on July 16. The trade represented a $278,400 bullish bet for which the trader paid $4.80 per option contract.</li>  <li>At 10:07 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the bid of 258 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $80 expiring on July 16. The trade represented a $39,216 bullish bet for which the trader paid $1.52 per option contract.</li>  <li>At 10:24 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the bid of 352 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $50 expiring on July 2. The trade represented a $54,560 bullish bet for which the trader paid $1.55 per option contract.</li>  <li>At 10:26 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the bid of 234 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $145 expiring on July 23. The trade represented a $39,216 bullish bet for which the trader paid $1.31 per option contract.</li>  <li>At 10:31 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the bid of 224 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $145 expiring on Sept. 17. The trade represented a $105,280 bullish bet for which the trader paid $4.70 per option contract.</li>  <li>At 10:38 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the bid of 500 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $47 expiring on July 2. The trade represented a $146,000 bullish bet for which the trader paid $2.92 per option contract.</li>  <li>At 12:02 p.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the bid of 500 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $45 expiring on July 9. The trade represented a $305,000 bullish bet for which the trader paid $6.10 per option contract.</li> </ul> <b>AMC Price Action:</b>Shares of AMC Entertainment were trading down 5.3% to $51.33 at publication time.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>周五上午9点42分，一名交易员在265份AMC院线期权的买入价附近执行了看涨期权清仓，执行价格为59美元，将于7月9日到期。该交易代表了52,205美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付了1.97美元。</li><li>上午9点51分，一名交易员在247份执行价为65美元、将于8月20日到期的AMC院线期权的买入价附近执行了看涨期权清仓。该交易代表了221,065美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付了8.95美元。</li><li>上午9点52分，一名交易员在248份执行价为120美元、将于12月17日到期的AMC院线期权的买入价附近执行了看涨期权清仓。该交易代表了260,400美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付了10.50美元。</li><li>上午9点53分，一名交易员在356份AMC院线期权的买入价附近执行了看涨期权清仓，执行价格为65美元，将于8月20日到期。该交易代表了311,500美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付了8.75美元。</li><li>上午9点53分，一名交易员在310份AMC院线期权的买入价附近执行了看涨期权清仓，执行价格为65美元，将于8月20日到期。该交易代表了266,600美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付了8.60美元。</li><li>上午9点56分，一名交易员在310份AMC院线期权的买入价附近执行了看涨期权清仓，执行价格为65美元，将于8月20日到期。该交易代表了266,600美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付了8.60美元。</li><li>上午9点57分，一名交易员在7月2日到期的300份执行价为28美元的AMC院线期权的买入价附近执行了看涨期权清仓。该交易代表了221,065美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付了23.40美元。</li><li>上午9点58分，一名交易员在289份AMC院线期权的买入价附近执行了看涨期权清仓，执行价格为120美元，将于12月17日到期。该交易代表了303,450美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付了10.50美元。</li><li>上午9点58分，一名交易员在7月16日到期的580份执行价为55美元的AMC院线期权的买入价附近执行了看涨期权清仓。该交易代表了278,400美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付了4.80美元。</li><li>上午10点07分，一名交易员在7月16日到期的258份执行价为80美元的AMC院线期权的买入价附近执行了看涨期权清仓。该交易代表39,216美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付1.52美元。</li><li>上午10点24分，一名交易员在7月2日到期的执行价为50美元的352份AMC院线期权的买入价附近执行了看涨期权清仓。该交易代表了54,560美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付了1.55美元。</li><li>上午10点26分，一名交易员在7月23日到期的234份执行价为145美元的AMC院线期权的买入价附近执行了看涨期权清仓。该交易代表39,216美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付1.31美元。</li><li>上午10点31分，一名交易员在224份AMC院线期权的买入价附近执行了看涨期权清仓，执行价为145美元，将于9月17日到期。该交易代表了105,280美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付了4.70美元。</li><li>上午10点38分，一名交易员在7月2日到期的500份执行价为47美元的AMC院线期权的买入价附近执行了看涨期权清仓。该交易代表了146,000美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付了2.92美元。</li><li>中午12点02分，一名交易员在7月9日到期的500份执行价为45美元的AMC院线期权的买入价附近执行了看涨期权清仓。该交易代表了305,000美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付了6.10美元。</li></ul><b>AMC价格走势：</b>截至发稿时，AMC院线股价下跌5.3%，至51.33美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136694264","content_text":"On Friday morning, Iceberg Researchannouncedit had taken a short position inAMC Entertainment HoldingsAMC 4.08%. Iceberg said options traders have lost money due to the stock trading sideways for the month of June and that the pump around the stock looks shaky.\nThe news didn’t stop institutions from continuously hammering AMC call contracts and on Friday options traders had purchased over $2.59 million worth. The expiration dates for the contracts ranged from today up until Dec. 17 and a few traders chose a strike price of a whopping $145.\nAMC’s stock broke bearishly from a symmetrical triangle it had formed through its sideways trading on Friday, but held a support level at $47.91 and bounced from it. Bulls would like to see the dip continue to be bought and for AMC to end the day by printing a hammer candlestick and closing above the 21-day exponential moving average.\nWhy It’s Important:When a sweep order occurs, it indicates the trader wanted to get into a position quickly and is anticipating an imminent large move in stock price. A sweeper pays market price for the call or put option instead of placing a bid, which sweeps the order book of multiple exchanges to fill the order immediately.\nThese types of call option orders are usually made by institutions, and retail investors can find watching for sweepers useful because it indicates “smart money” has entered into a position.\nThe AMC Option Trades:Below is a look at the notable options alerts, courtesy ofBenzinga Pro:\n\nAt 9:42 a.m., Friday a trader executed a call sweep near the bid of 265 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $59 expiring on July 9. The trade represented a $52,205 bullish bet for which the trader paid $1.97 per option contract.\nAt 9:51 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the bid of 247 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $65 expiring on Aug. 20. The trade represented a $221,065 bullish bet for which the trader paid $8.95 per option contract.\nAt 9:52 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the bid of 248 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $120 expiring on Dec. 17. The trade represented a $260,400 bullish bet for which the trader paid $10.50 per option contract.\nAt 9:53 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the bid of 356 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $65 expiring on Aug. 20. The trade represented a $311,500 bullish bet for which the trader paid $8.75 per option contract.\nAt 9:53 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the bid of 310 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $65 expiring on Aug. 20. The trade represented a $266,600 bullish bet for which the trader paid $8.60 per option contract.\nAt 9:56 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the bid of 310 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $65 expiring on Aug. 20. The trade represented a $266,600 bullish bet for which the trader paid $8.60 per option contract.\nAt 9:57 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the bid of 300 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $28 expiring on July 2. The trade represented a $221,065 bullish bet for which the trader paid $23.40 per option contract.\nAt 9:58 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the bid of 289 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $120 expiring on Dec., 17. The trade represented a $303,450 bullish bet for which the trader paid $10.50 per option contract.\nAt 9:58 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the bid of 580 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $55 expiring on July 16. The trade represented a $278,400 bullish bet for which the trader paid $4.80 per option contract.\nAt 10:07 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the bid of 258 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $80 expiring on July 16. The trade represented a $39,216 bullish bet for which the trader paid $1.52 per option contract.\nAt 10:24 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the bid of 352 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $50 expiring on July 2. The trade represented a $54,560 bullish bet for which the trader paid $1.55 per option contract.\nAt 10:26 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the bid of 234 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $145 expiring on July 23. The trade represented a $39,216 bullish bet for which the trader paid $1.31 per option contract.\nAt 10:31 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the bid of 224 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $145 expiring on Sept. 17. The trade represented a $105,280 bullish bet for which the trader paid $4.70 per option contract.\nAt 10:38 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the bid of 500 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $47 expiring on July 2. The trade represented a $146,000 bullish bet for which the trader paid $2.92 per option contract.\nAt 12:02 p.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the bid of 500 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $45 expiring on July 9. The trade represented a $305,000 bullish bet for which the trader paid $6.10 per option contract.\n\nAMC Price Action:Shares of AMC Entertainment were trading down 5.3% to $51.33 at publication time.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":561,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":155087997,"gmtCreate":1625364217819,"gmtModify":1631892933282,"author":{"id":"3576390362043433","authorId":"3576390362043433","name":"chelvi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6a8a4bf7a99f1ceb457affa9db3e865","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576390362043433","idStr":"3576390362043433"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and share&nbsp;","listText":"Like and share&nbsp;","text":"Like and share","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/155087997","repostId":"1192425829","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1192425829","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625362308,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1192425829?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-04 09:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Second-Half 2021: Market Forecasts, Thoughts and Observations<blockquote>2021年下半年：市场预测、思考与观察</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1192425829","media":"The Street","summary":"The stock market has given us some incredible returns in the past year or two but there are some war","content":"<p>  The stock market has given us some incredible returns in the past year or two but there are some warning signs developing -- and one key date to keep an eye on.  The stock market, commodity markets and fixed-income markets have been on some wild rides the past 18 months. We penned 2021 forecast pieces back in January (read<b>here</b>and<b>here</b>), but a fresh look at things for the balance of the year seems like a good idea with commodity plays on the rise, oil prices coming on strong while other areas of the market are cooling.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的一两年里，股市给我们带来了一些令人难以置信的回报，但也出现了一些警告信号，还有一个需要关注的关键日期。过去18个月里，股市、大宗商品市场和固定收益市场经历了一些疯狂的波动。我们早在1月份就撰写了2021年预测文章（阅读<b>在这里</b>和<b>在这里</b>），但随着大宗商品市场的上涨，油价走强，而市场其他领域正在降温，重新审视今年剩余时间的情况似乎是个好主意。</blockquote></p><p> Let's start our analysis with some monthly candlestick charts.</p><p><blockquote>让我们从一些月度烛台图开始我们的分析。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Candlestick AnalysisDow Jones Industrials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>烛台分析道琼斯工业指数</b></blockquote></p><p> In this monthly Japanese candlestick chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), below, we can see that prices have made a huge rise over the past decade and a very sharp advance since March of 2020. Taking a little liberty in our methodology we can see an 8 to 10 record high advance since the 2020 pandemic low. Notice the slowing pace of the 12-month price momentum study in the lower panel.</p><p><blockquote>在下面道琼斯工业平均指数（道琼斯）的月度日本烛台图中，我们可以看到价格在过去十年中大幅上涨，自2020年3月以来涨幅非常大。在我们的方法上稍微自由一点，我们可以看到自2020年疫情低点以来，有8到10个历史新高的进展。请注意下图中12个月价格动量研究的步伐放缓。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c0c65a961cdf2a9b6bdba9757ca8c5d\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>S&amp;P 500</b></p><p><blockquote><b>标普500</b></blockquote></p><p> In this monthly Japanese candlestick chart of the S&amp;P 500 Index (SPX) below, we can see another big advance over the past 10 years. The index made a sideways consolidation pattern in 2015-2016 around 2,000 to 2,200 and we have for most part doubled from there. I would not be surprised to see some significant profit-taking as the SPX approached 4,400. Momentum has been slowing here too.</p><p><blockquote>在下面的标普500指数（SPX）月度日本烛台图中，我们可以看到过去10年的另一次大幅上涨。该指数在2015-2016年在2,000点至2,200点附近形成了横向盘整模式，我们在很大程度上从那里翻了一番。当SPX接近4,400点时，看到一些重大获利了结，我不会感到惊讶。这里的势头也在放缓。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72a594dc06dc6364a1f4432334018a95\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Nasdaq</b></p><p><blockquote><b>纳斯达克</b></blockquote></p><p> In this monthly Japanese candlestick chart of the Nasdaq, below, we can see that prices have doubled from their consolidation pattern in 2018 and 2019 in the 7,000 area. Prices have nearly tripled from their consolidation around 5,000 in 2015-2016. Yes, the momentum study is slowing.</p><p><blockquote>在下面的纳斯达克月度日本烛台图中，我们可以看到价格比2018年和2019年在7,000点区域的盘整模式翻了一番。价格较2015-2016年5,000点左右的盘整上涨了近两倍。是的，动量研究正在放缓。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a32c8a3b8cbd6d84dc3c316188d0714c\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Russell 2000</b></p><p><blockquote><b>罗素2000</b></blockquote></p><p> In this monthly candlestick chart of the Russell 2000 index (RUT) we can see that prices have more than doubled from their March 2020 low. This could take your breath away. With the string of white candles and weakening momentum we want to be more cautious as we move forward in the third quarter.</p><p><blockquote>在这张罗素2000指数(RUT)的月度烛台图中，我们可以看到价格较2020年3月的低点上涨了一倍多。这会让你大吃一惊。随着一串白色蜡烛和势头减弱，我们希望在第三季度前进时更加谨慎。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00e2eb68915aa7fe3a35df2b5cca4c7c\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">All these charts (above) show the 8 to 10 record high pattern so we should be on our guard for a top reversal pattern.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些图表（上图）都显示了8到10个创纪录的高点模式，因此我们应该警惕顶部反转模式。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Advance-Decline Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>进退分析</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, let's turn our attention to the Advance-Decline line.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们把注意力转向涨跌线。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Dow Jones Industrials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>道琼斯工业指数</b></blockquote></p><p> In this daily candlestick chart of the DJIA, below, we show the Advance-Decline line which has been moving sideways since early May. This difference between the price action is a bearish divergence but the DJIA is a narrow average with only 30 stocks.</p><p><blockquote>在下面的道琼斯日线烛台图中，我们显示了自五月初以来一直横向移动的上涨-下跌线。价格走势之间的差异是看跌背离，但道琼斯是一个狭窄的平均值，只有30只股票。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5af49f53b61d7234c47302a43ef8fc54\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"622\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>S&amp;P 500</b></p><p><blockquote><b>标普500</b></blockquote></p><p> In this chart of the S&amp;P 500 and its Advance-Decline line, below, we can see that prices and the Advance-Decline line are pointed up so a bearish divergence has not started.</p><p><blockquote>在下面这张标普500及其上涨-下跌线的图表中，我们可以看到价格和上涨-下跌线向上，因此看跌背离尚未开始。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f76b13060f5ac582155923264b7fb2f\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"622\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Nasdaq</b></p><p><blockquote><b>纳斯达克</b></blockquote></p><p> In this chart of the Nasdaq, below, we can see a significant bearish divergence. The Nasdaq has been making new highs but the Advance-Decline line has been moving sideways to lower from February.</p><p><blockquote>在下面的纳斯达克图表中，我们可以看到显着的看跌背离。纳斯达克一直在创出新高，但涨跌幅线自二月份以来一直横向走低。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c202ca833085d8ae21f804e01da1d20e\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"622\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Nasdaq 100</b></p><p><blockquote><b>纳斯达克100</b></blockquote></p><p> In this chart of Nasdaq 100 and its Advance-Decline line, below, we see prices and the indicator going up together. No bearish divergence here.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02f49df814666506de6bd3a8f8cff358\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"622\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Sectors</b></p><p><blockquote>在下面这张纳斯达克100指数及其涨跌幅线的图表中，我们看到价格和指标一起上涨。这里没有看跌背离。<b>部门</b></blockquote></p><p> The marketplace can be broken down into 11 sectors but I want to cover just part of the list today.<b>Energy</b>In this weekly candlestick chart of the (XLE) , the S&amp;P Energy sector ETF, below, we can see that prices have doubled from their pandemic low. Trading volume has been very heavy and the weekly On-Balance-Volume has been stalled the past four months. The 12-week price momentum study has been weakening for a bearish divergence.</p><p><blockquote>市场可以分为11个部分，但我今天只想介绍其中的一部分。<b>能源</b>在下面的标准普尔能源行业ETF(XLE)的周线烛台图中，我们可以看到价格较大流行低点翻了一番。过去四个月，交易量非常大，每周余额交易量停滞不前。12周价格动量研究因看跌背离而减弱。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6c7c0cb796bbdd57de9aba933c615ce\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Two energy names that could rally further in the third quarter are EOG Resources (EOG) and ConocoPhillips (COP) . Here are the charts.</p><p><blockquote>第三季度可能进一步上涨的两家能源公司是EOG Resources(EOG)和康菲石油公司(COP)。这是图表。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d2fc7721f85cac4b418a821156c714f\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/874820e1c1c54a567c399f5129e88676\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc072387bc975d38d92af5b6b3de16ac\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d2822d20c835ce4f4860d5eb45212cb\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Financials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务</b></blockquote></p><p> In this daily bar chart of the (XLF) ,&nbsp; the Financial sector ETF, below, we can see that prices have begun a topping phase. Prices have broken below the cresting 50-day moving average line. The On-Balance-Volume line has weakened from early June and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillator has fallen below the zero line for an outright sell signal.</p><p><blockquote>在下面金融板块ETF(XLF)的日线条形图中，我们可以看到价格已经开始见顶阶段。价格已跌破50日移动平均线。自6月初以来，平衡成交量线已走弱，移动平均线收敛背离(MACD)振荡器已跌破零线，发出直接卖出信号。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bddfbb55fad602b4a29ff4ef1ba47e0f\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Technology</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术</b></blockquote></p><p> In this weekly Japanese candlestick chart of the (XLK) , the Technology sector ETF, below, we can see that prices have more than doubled from their pandemic low. The trading volume has diminished since March 2020 and the weekly On-Balance-Volume line has been stuck in a sideways trend for the past 12 months. The 12-week price momentum study in the bottom panel shows lower highs being made the past year. This is a significant bearish divergence.</p><p><blockquote>在下面的科技行业ETF(XLK)的每周日本烛台图中，我们可以看到价格较大流行低点上涨了一倍多。自2020年3月以来，交易量一直在减少，每周平衡交易量线在过去12个月中一直处于横盘趋势。底部面板中的12周价格动量研究显示，过去一年的高点较低。这是一个显着的看跌背离。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9d9a652c4c72b421556bfbd90dd8d44\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Industrials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>工业</b></blockquote></p><p> In this daily bar chart of the (XLI) &nbsp;, the Industrial sector ETF, below, we can see a weakening picture. Prices have slipped below the cresting 50-day moving average line. The On-Balance-Volume line has weakened the past two months and the MACD oscillator is below the zero line in sell territory.</p><p><blockquote>在下面工业板块ETF(XLI)的日线条形图中，我们可以看到疲软的情况。价格已跌破50日移动平均线。在过去的两个月里，平衡成交量线已经走弱，MACD振荡指标低于卖出区域的零线。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47838029e80d6b87a83abb9f1352bdaf\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Bonds</b></p><p><blockquote><b>债券</b></blockquote></p><p> In this daily Point and Figure chart of the (TLT) , the iShares 20+ year Treasury Bond ETF, below, we can see a potential upside price target in the $165 area.</p><p><blockquote>在下面的iShares 20+年期国债ETF(TLT)的每日点数图中，我们可以看到165美元区域的潜在上行目标价。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/587f7bae63415985c849540d27b7ffaa\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"992\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>U.S. Dollar</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美元</b></blockquote></p><p> In this daily Japanese candlestick chart of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) we can see that prices have stopped short of a test of its late March/early April highs. DXY could make a slow drift downward to retest its May lows.</p><p><blockquote>在美元指数（DXY）的每日日本烛台图中，我们可以看到价格已经停止测试3月底/4月初的高点。DXY可能会缓慢向下漂移，重新测试5月份的低点。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c086d11fb1d31f2710dc3752d158a2e7\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Mark Your Calendars</b></p><p><blockquote><b>标记您的日历</b></blockquote></p><p> A technical service that I have been using since the mid-1990s (www.pfr.com) is anticipating a large-scale \"trend change\" on or about Aug. 2 and this bears watching. This could mark the start of perhaps a 10% correction in the major averages. The next trend change is anticipated for late October, which could be the start of a year-end rally. We want to pay closer attention to the advance-decline numbers and price action as we approach Aug. 2.</p><p><blockquote>我自20世纪90年代中期以来一直使用的一项技术服务(www.pfr.com)预计8月2日左右将出现大规模“趋势变化”，这值得关注。这可能标志着主要平均指数可能出现10%的回调。下一次趋势变化预计将在10月下旬，这可能是年底反弹的开始。随着8月2日的临近，我们希望密切关注涨跌数据和价格走势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sentiment</b></p><p><blockquote><b>情绪</b></blockquote></p><p> No discussion about the stock market would be complete without some discussion of sentiment. There are plenty of \"signs\" of the stock market being out over its skis.</p><p><blockquote>如果不讨论情绪，任何关于股市的讨论都是不完整的。有很多“迹象”表明股市正在下滑。</blockquote></p><p> I see a number of market letters and commentary from fellow technical analysts and they are all bullish. I get emails from Real Money subscribers asking about this stock or that stock and I have two observations:</p><p><blockquote>我看到了许多来自其他技术分析师的市场信件和评论，他们都是看涨的。我收到来自Real Money订阅者的电子邮件，询问这只股票或那只股票，我有两个观察结果：</blockquote></p><p> 1. The names they are asking about seem to be more speculative in nature. I cannot remember the last time someone emailed me about a boring utility stock.</p><p><blockquote>1.他们询问的名字似乎更具投机性质。我不记得上次有人给我发电子邮件询问无聊的公用事业股票是什么时候了。</blockquote></p><p> 2. The second thing that has struck me about the emails is the failure to recognize risk. Everyone wants to know the next highest price target but they never ask about where to move a stop up.</p><p><blockquote>2.电子邮件给我留下深刻印象的第二件事是没有认识到风险。每个人都想知道下一个最高价格目标，但他们从不问在哪里移动止损。</blockquote></p><p> Sentiment is not a precise indicator and much of it is anecdotal in nature and hard to quantify. The anticipated Robinhood IPO could mark a turning point.</p><p><blockquote>情绪不是一个精确的指标，其中大部分本质上是轶事，很难量化。预期的Robinhood IPO可能标志着一个转折点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bottom-Line Strategy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线策略</b></blockquote></p><p> The stock market has given us some incredible returns in the past year or two but there are some warning signs developing and traders need to start leaning in the other direction.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的一两年里，股市给了我们一些令人难以置信的回报，但也出现了一些警告信号，交易者需要开始向另一个方向倾斜。</blockquote></p><p> Consider adding to commodity plays as they could be the outperformers of the third quarter.</p><p><blockquote>考虑增加大宗商品投资，因为它们可能是第三季度表现出色的股票。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Consider becoming a scale-up profit taker. Continue to raise your stop protection to lock in more gains. Pay closer attention to where in the range prices are closing. Highs are typically made when prices close near the high of the day.Is the On-Balance-Volume line weakening as volume increases on days when the market or your favorite stock declines?</p><p><blockquote>考虑成为规模扩大的获利者。继续提高止损保护，锁定更多收益。密切关注价格收盘区间。高点通常是在价格接近当天高点时形成的。当市场或您最喜欢的股票下跌时，平衡成交量线是否会随着成交量增加而减弱？</blockquote></p><p> Pay closer attention to the news and watch for stocks and the market to decline on bullish news -- this tells us that the news has been discounted.</p><p><blockquote>密切关注新闻，观察股票和市场因看涨消息而下跌——这告诉我们消息已经打折。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610613172068","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Second-Half 2021: Market Forecasts, Thoughts and Observations<blockquote>2021年下半年：市场预测、思考与观察</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSecond-Half 2021: Market Forecasts, Thoughts and Observations<blockquote>2021年下半年：市场预测、思考与观察</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Street</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-04 09:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  The stock market has given us some incredible returns in the past year or two but there are some warning signs developing -- and one key date to keep an eye on.  The stock market, commodity markets and fixed-income markets have been on some wild rides the past 18 months. We penned 2021 forecast pieces back in January (read<b>here</b>and<b>here</b>), but a fresh look at things for the balance of the year seems like a good idea with commodity plays on the rise, oil prices coming on strong while other areas of the market are cooling.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的一两年里，股市给我们带来了一些令人难以置信的回报，但也出现了一些警告信号，还有一个需要关注的关键日期。过去18个月里，股市、大宗商品市场和固定收益市场经历了一些疯狂的波动。我们早在1月份就撰写了2021年预测文章（阅读<b>在这里</b>和<b>在这里</b>），但随着大宗商品市场的上涨，油价走强，而市场其他领域正在降温，重新审视今年剩余时间的情况似乎是个好主意。</blockquote></p><p> Let's start our analysis with some monthly candlestick charts.</p><p><blockquote>让我们从一些月度烛台图开始我们的分析。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Candlestick AnalysisDow Jones Industrials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>烛台分析道琼斯工业指数</b></blockquote></p><p> In this monthly Japanese candlestick chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), below, we can see that prices have made a huge rise over the past decade and a very sharp advance since March of 2020. Taking a little liberty in our methodology we can see an 8 to 10 record high advance since the 2020 pandemic low. Notice the slowing pace of the 12-month price momentum study in the lower panel.</p><p><blockquote>在下面道琼斯工业平均指数（道琼斯）的月度日本烛台图中，我们可以看到价格在过去十年中大幅上涨，自2020年3月以来涨幅非常大。在我们的方法上稍微自由一点，我们可以看到自2020年疫情低点以来，有8到10个历史新高的进展。请注意下图中12个月价格动量研究的步伐放缓。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c0c65a961cdf2a9b6bdba9757ca8c5d\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>S&amp;P 500</b></p><p><blockquote><b>标普500</b></blockquote></p><p> In this monthly Japanese candlestick chart of the S&amp;P 500 Index (SPX) below, we can see another big advance over the past 10 years. The index made a sideways consolidation pattern in 2015-2016 around 2,000 to 2,200 and we have for most part doubled from there. I would not be surprised to see some significant profit-taking as the SPX approached 4,400. Momentum has been slowing here too.</p><p><blockquote>在下面的标普500指数（SPX）月度日本烛台图中，我们可以看到过去10年的另一次大幅上涨。该指数在2015-2016年在2,000点至2,200点附近形成了横向盘整模式，我们在很大程度上从那里翻了一番。当SPX接近4,400点时，看到一些重大获利了结，我不会感到惊讶。这里的势头也在放缓。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72a594dc06dc6364a1f4432334018a95\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Nasdaq</b></p><p><blockquote><b>纳斯达克</b></blockquote></p><p> In this monthly Japanese candlestick chart of the Nasdaq, below, we can see that prices have doubled from their consolidation pattern in 2018 and 2019 in the 7,000 area. Prices have nearly tripled from their consolidation around 5,000 in 2015-2016. Yes, the momentum study is slowing.</p><p><blockquote>在下面的纳斯达克月度日本烛台图中，我们可以看到价格比2018年和2019年在7,000点区域的盘整模式翻了一番。价格较2015-2016年5,000点左右的盘整上涨了近两倍。是的，动量研究正在放缓。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a32c8a3b8cbd6d84dc3c316188d0714c\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Russell 2000</b></p><p><blockquote><b>罗素2000</b></blockquote></p><p> In this monthly candlestick chart of the Russell 2000 index (RUT) we can see that prices have more than doubled from their March 2020 low. This could take your breath away. With the string of white candles and weakening momentum we want to be more cautious as we move forward in the third quarter.</p><p><blockquote>在这张罗素2000指数(RUT)的月度烛台图中，我们可以看到价格较2020年3月的低点上涨了一倍多。这会让你大吃一惊。随着一串白色蜡烛和势头减弱，我们希望在第三季度前进时更加谨慎。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00e2eb68915aa7fe3a35df2b5cca4c7c\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">All these charts (above) show the 8 to 10 record high pattern so we should be on our guard for a top reversal pattern.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些图表（上图）都显示了8到10个创纪录的高点模式，因此我们应该警惕顶部反转模式。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Advance-Decline Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>进退分析</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, let's turn our attention to the Advance-Decline line.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们把注意力转向涨跌线。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Dow Jones Industrials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>道琼斯工业指数</b></blockquote></p><p> In this daily candlestick chart of the DJIA, below, we show the Advance-Decline line which has been moving sideways since early May. This difference between the price action is a bearish divergence but the DJIA is a narrow average with only 30 stocks.</p><p><blockquote>在下面的道琼斯日线烛台图中，我们显示了自五月初以来一直横向移动的上涨-下跌线。价格走势之间的差异是看跌背离，但道琼斯是一个狭窄的平均值，只有30只股票。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5af49f53b61d7234c47302a43ef8fc54\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"622\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>S&amp;P 500</b></p><p><blockquote><b>标普500</b></blockquote></p><p> In this chart of the S&amp;P 500 and its Advance-Decline line, below, we can see that prices and the Advance-Decline line are pointed up so a bearish divergence has not started.</p><p><blockquote>在下面这张标普500及其上涨-下跌线的图表中，我们可以看到价格和上涨-下跌线向上，因此看跌背离尚未开始。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f76b13060f5ac582155923264b7fb2f\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"622\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Nasdaq</b></p><p><blockquote><b>纳斯达克</b></blockquote></p><p> In this chart of the Nasdaq, below, we can see a significant bearish divergence. The Nasdaq has been making new highs but the Advance-Decline line has been moving sideways to lower from February.</p><p><blockquote>在下面的纳斯达克图表中，我们可以看到显着的看跌背离。纳斯达克一直在创出新高，但涨跌幅线自二月份以来一直横向走低。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c202ca833085d8ae21f804e01da1d20e\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"622\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Nasdaq 100</b></p><p><blockquote><b>纳斯达克100</b></blockquote></p><p> In this chart of Nasdaq 100 and its Advance-Decline line, below, we see prices and the indicator going up together. No bearish divergence here.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02f49df814666506de6bd3a8f8cff358\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"622\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Sectors</b></p><p><blockquote>在下面这张纳斯达克100指数及其涨跌幅线的图表中，我们看到价格和指标一起上涨。这里没有看跌背离。<b>部门</b></blockquote></p><p> The marketplace can be broken down into 11 sectors but I want to cover just part of the list today.<b>Energy</b>In this weekly candlestick chart of the (XLE) , the S&amp;P Energy sector ETF, below, we can see that prices have doubled from their pandemic low. Trading volume has been very heavy and the weekly On-Balance-Volume has been stalled the past four months. The 12-week price momentum study has been weakening for a bearish divergence.</p><p><blockquote>市场可以分为11个部分，但我今天只想介绍其中的一部分。<b>能源</b>在下面的标准普尔能源行业ETF(XLE)的周线烛台图中，我们可以看到价格较大流行低点翻了一番。过去四个月，交易量非常大，每周余额交易量停滞不前。12周价格动量研究因看跌背离而减弱。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6c7c0cb796bbdd57de9aba933c615ce\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Two energy names that could rally further in the third quarter are EOG Resources (EOG) and ConocoPhillips (COP) . Here are the charts.</p><p><blockquote>第三季度可能进一步上涨的两家能源公司是EOG Resources(EOG)和康菲石油公司(COP)。这是图表。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d2fc7721f85cac4b418a821156c714f\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/874820e1c1c54a567c399f5129e88676\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc072387bc975d38d92af5b6b3de16ac\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d2822d20c835ce4f4860d5eb45212cb\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Financials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务</b></blockquote></p><p> In this daily bar chart of the (XLF) ,&nbsp; the Financial sector ETF, below, we can see that prices have begun a topping phase. Prices have broken below the cresting 50-day moving average line. The On-Balance-Volume line has weakened from early June and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillator has fallen below the zero line for an outright sell signal.</p><p><blockquote>在下面金融板块ETF(XLF)的日线条形图中，我们可以看到价格已经开始见顶阶段。价格已跌破50日移动平均线。自6月初以来，平衡成交量线已走弱，移动平均线收敛背离(MACD)振荡器已跌破零线，发出直接卖出信号。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bddfbb55fad602b4a29ff4ef1ba47e0f\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Technology</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术</b></blockquote></p><p> In this weekly Japanese candlestick chart of the (XLK) , the Technology sector ETF, below, we can see that prices have more than doubled from their pandemic low. The trading volume has diminished since March 2020 and the weekly On-Balance-Volume line has been stuck in a sideways trend for the past 12 months. The 12-week price momentum study in the bottom panel shows lower highs being made the past year. This is a significant bearish divergence.</p><p><blockquote>在下面的科技行业ETF(XLK)的每周日本烛台图中，我们可以看到价格较大流行低点上涨了一倍多。自2020年3月以来，交易量一直在减少，每周平衡交易量线在过去12个月中一直处于横盘趋势。底部面板中的12周价格动量研究显示，过去一年的高点较低。这是一个显着的看跌背离。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9d9a652c4c72b421556bfbd90dd8d44\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Industrials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>工业</b></blockquote></p><p> In this daily bar chart of the (XLI) &nbsp;, the Industrial sector ETF, below, we can see a weakening picture. Prices have slipped below the cresting 50-day moving average line. The On-Balance-Volume line has weakened the past two months and the MACD oscillator is below the zero line in sell territory.</p><p><blockquote>在下面工业板块ETF(XLI)的日线条形图中，我们可以看到疲软的情况。价格已跌破50日移动平均线。在过去的两个月里，平衡成交量线已经走弱，MACD振荡指标低于卖出区域的零线。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47838029e80d6b87a83abb9f1352bdaf\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Bonds</b></p><p><blockquote><b>债券</b></blockquote></p><p> In this daily Point and Figure chart of the (TLT) , the iShares 20+ year Treasury Bond ETF, below, we can see a potential upside price target in the $165 area.</p><p><blockquote>在下面的iShares 20+年期国债ETF(TLT)的每日点数图中，我们可以看到165美元区域的潜在上行目标价。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/587f7bae63415985c849540d27b7ffaa\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"992\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>U.S. Dollar</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美元</b></blockquote></p><p> In this daily Japanese candlestick chart of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) we can see that prices have stopped short of a test of its late March/early April highs. DXY could make a slow drift downward to retest its May lows.</p><p><blockquote>在美元指数（DXY）的每日日本烛台图中，我们可以看到价格已经停止测试3月底/4月初的高点。DXY可能会缓慢向下漂移，重新测试5月份的低点。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c086d11fb1d31f2710dc3752d158a2e7\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Mark Your Calendars</b></p><p><blockquote><b>标记您的日历</b></blockquote></p><p> A technical service that I have been using since the mid-1990s (www.pfr.com) is anticipating a large-scale \"trend change\" on or about Aug. 2 and this bears watching. This could mark the start of perhaps a 10% correction in the major averages. The next trend change is anticipated for late October, which could be the start of a year-end rally. We want to pay closer attention to the advance-decline numbers and price action as we approach Aug. 2.</p><p><blockquote>我自20世纪90年代中期以来一直使用的一项技术服务(www.pfr.com)预计8月2日左右将出现大规模“趋势变化”，这值得关注。这可能标志着主要平均指数可能出现10%的回调。下一次趋势变化预计将在10月下旬，这可能是年底反弹的开始。随着8月2日的临近，我们希望密切关注涨跌数据和价格走势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sentiment</b></p><p><blockquote><b>情绪</b></blockquote></p><p> No discussion about the stock market would be complete without some discussion of sentiment. There are plenty of \"signs\" of the stock market being out over its skis.</p><p><blockquote>如果不讨论情绪，任何关于股市的讨论都是不完整的。有很多“迹象”表明股市正在下滑。</blockquote></p><p> I see a number of market letters and commentary from fellow technical analysts and they are all bullish. I get emails from Real Money subscribers asking about this stock or that stock and I have two observations:</p><p><blockquote>我看到了许多来自其他技术分析师的市场信件和评论，他们都是看涨的。我收到来自Real Money订阅者的电子邮件，询问这只股票或那只股票，我有两个观察结果：</blockquote></p><p> 1. The names they are asking about seem to be more speculative in nature. I cannot remember the last time someone emailed me about a boring utility stock.</p><p><blockquote>1.他们询问的名字似乎更具投机性质。我不记得上次有人给我发电子邮件询问无聊的公用事业股票是什么时候了。</blockquote></p><p> 2. The second thing that has struck me about the emails is the failure to recognize risk. Everyone wants to know the next highest price target but they never ask about where to move a stop up.</p><p><blockquote>2.电子邮件给我留下深刻印象的第二件事是没有认识到风险。每个人都想知道下一个最高价格目标，但他们从不问在哪里移动止损。</blockquote></p><p> Sentiment is not a precise indicator and much of it is anecdotal in nature and hard to quantify. The anticipated Robinhood IPO could mark a turning point.</p><p><blockquote>情绪不是一个精确的指标，其中大部分本质上是轶事，很难量化。预期的Robinhood IPO可能标志着一个转折点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bottom-Line Strategy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线策略</b></blockquote></p><p> The stock market has given us some incredible returns in the past year or two but there are some warning signs developing and traders need to start leaning in the other direction.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的一两年里，股市给了我们一些令人难以置信的回报，但也出现了一些警告信号，交易者需要开始向另一个方向倾斜。</blockquote></p><p> Consider adding to commodity plays as they could be the outperformers of the third quarter.</p><p><blockquote>考虑增加大宗商品投资，因为它们可能是第三季度表现出色的股票。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Consider becoming a scale-up profit taker. Continue to raise your stop protection to lock in more gains. Pay closer attention to where in the range prices are closing. Highs are typically made when prices close near the high of the day.Is the On-Balance-Volume line weakening as volume increases on days when the market or your favorite stock declines?</p><p><blockquote>考虑成为规模扩大的获利者。继续提高止损保护，锁定更多收益。密切关注价格收盘区间。高点通常是在价格接近当天高点时形成的。当市场或您最喜欢的股票下跌时，平衡成交量线是否会随着成交量增加而减弱？</blockquote></p><p> Pay closer attention to the news and watch for stocks and the market to decline on bullish news -- this tells us that the news has been discounted.</p><p><blockquote>密切关注新闻，观察股票和市场因看涨消息而下跌——这告诉我们消息已经打折。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/second-half-2021-market-forecasts-thoughts-and-observations-15702152?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO\">The Street</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/second-half-2021-market-forecasts-thoughts-and-observations-15702152?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1192425829","content_text":"The stock market has given us some incredible returns in the past year or two but there are some warning signs developing -- and one key date to keep an eye on.\n\nThe stock market, commodity markets and fixed-income markets have been on some wild rides the past 18 months. We penned 2021 forecast pieces back in January (readhereandhere), but a fresh look at things for the balance of the year seems like a good idea with commodity plays on the rise, oil prices coming on strong while other areas of the market are cooling.\nLet's start our analysis with some monthly candlestick charts.\nCandlestick AnalysisDow Jones Industrials\nIn this monthly Japanese candlestick chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), below, we can see that prices have made a huge rise over the past decade and a very sharp advance since March of 2020. Taking a little liberty in our methodology we can see an 8 to 10 record high advance since the 2020 pandemic low. Notice the slowing pace of the 12-month price momentum study in the lower panel.\nS&P 500\nIn this monthly Japanese candlestick chart of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) below, we can see another big advance over the past 10 years. The index made a sideways consolidation pattern in 2015-2016 around 2,000 to 2,200 and we have for most part doubled from there. I would not be surprised to see some significant profit-taking as the SPX approached 4,400. Momentum has been slowing here too.\nNasdaq\nIn this monthly Japanese candlestick chart of the Nasdaq, below, we can see that prices have doubled from their consolidation pattern in 2018 and 2019 in the 7,000 area. Prices have nearly tripled from their consolidation around 5,000 in 2015-2016. Yes, the momentum study is slowing.\nRussell 2000\nIn this monthly candlestick chart of the Russell 2000 index (RUT) we can see that prices have more than doubled from their March 2020 low. This could take your breath away. With the string of white candles and weakening momentum we want to be more cautious as we move forward in the third quarter.\nAll these charts (above) show the 8 to 10 record high pattern so we should be on our guard for a top reversal pattern.\nAdvance-Decline Analysis\nNow, let's turn our attention to the Advance-Decline line.\nDow Jones Industrials\nIn this daily candlestick chart of the DJIA, below, we show the Advance-Decline line which has been moving sideways since early May. This difference between the price action is a bearish divergence but the DJIA is a narrow average with only 30 stocks.\nS&P 500\nIn this chart of the S&P 500 and its Advance-Decline line, below, we can see that prices and the Advance-Decline line are pointed up so a bearish divergence has not started.\nNasdaq\nIn this chart of the Nasdaq, below, we can see a significant bearish divergence. The Nasdaq has been making new highs but the Advance-Decline line has been moving sideways to lower from February.\nNasdaq 100\nIn this chart of Nasdaq 100 and its Advance-Decline line, below, we see prices and the indicator going up together. No bearish divergence here.Sectors\nThe marketplace can be broken down into 11 sectors but I want to cover just part of the list today.EnergyIn this weekly candlestick chart of the (XLE) , the S&P Energy sector ETF, below, we can see that prices have doubled from their pandemic low. Trading volume has been very heavy and the weekly On-Balance-Volume has been stalled the past four months. The 12-week price momentum study has been weakening for a bearish divergence.\n\nTwo energy names that could rally further in the third quarter are EOG Resources (EOG) and ConocoPhillips (COP) . Here are the charts.\nFinancials\nIn this daily bar chart of the (XLF) ,  the Financial sector ETF, below, we can see that prices have begun a topping phase. Prices have broken below the cresting 50-day moving average line. The On-Balance-Volume line has weakened from early June and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillator has fallen below the zero line for an outright sell signal.\nTechnology\nIn this weekly Japanese candlestick chart of the (XLK) , the Technology sector ETF, below, we can see that prices have more than doubled from their pandemic low. The trading volume has diminished since March 2020 and the weekly On-Balance-Volume line has been stuck in a sideways trend for the past 12 months. The 12-week price momentum study in the bottom panel shows lower highs being made the past year. This is a significant bearish divergence.\nIndustrials\nIn this daily bar chart of the (XLI)  , the Industrial sector ETF, below, we can see a weakening picture. Prices have slipped below the cresting 50-day moving average line. The On-Balance-Volume line has weakened the past two months and the MACD oscillator is below the zero line in sell territory.\nBonds\nIn this daily Point and Figure chart of the (TLT) , the iShares 20+ year Treasury Bond ETF, below, we can see a potential upside price target in the $165 area.\nU.S. Dollar\nIn this daily Japanese candlestick chart of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) we can see that prices have stopped short of a test of its late March/early April highs. DXY could make a slow drift downward to retest its May lows.\nMark Your Calendars\nA technical service that I have been using since the mid-1990s (www.pfr.com) is anticipating a large-scale \"trend change\" on or about Aug. 2 and this bears watching. This could mark the start of perhaps a 10% correction in the major averages. The next trend change is anticipated for late October, which could be the start of a year-end rally. We want to pay closer attention to the advance-decline numbers and price action as we approach Aug. 2.\nSentiment\nNo discussion about the stock market would be complete without some discussion of sentiment. There are plenty of \"signs\" of the stock market being out over its skis.\nI see a number of market letters and commentary from fellow technical analysts and they are all bullish. I get emails from Real Money subscribers asking about this stock or that stock and I have two observations:\n1. The names they are asking about seem to be more speculative in nature. I cannot remember the last time someone emailed me about a boring utility stock.\n2. The second thing that has struck me about the emails is the failure to recognize risk. Everyone wants to know the next highest price target but they never ask about where to move a stop up.\nSentiment is not a precise indicator and much of it is anecdotal in nature and hard to quantify. The anticipated Robinhood IPO could mark a turning point.\nBottom-Line Strategy\nThe stock market has given us some incredible returns in the past year or two but there are some warning signs developing and traders need to start leaning in the other direction.\nConsider adding to commodity plays as they could be the outperformers of the third quarter.\nConsider becoming a scale-up profit taker. Continue to raise your stop protection to lock in more gains. Pay closer attention to where in the range prices are closing. Highs are typically made when prices close near the high of the day.Is the On-Balance-Volume line weakening as volume increases on days when the market or your favorite stock declines?\nPay closer attention to the news and watch for stocks and the market to decline on bullish news -- this tells us that the news has been discounted.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":603,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152668953,"gmtCreate":1625288539672,"gmtModify":1631892933298,"author":{"id":"3576390362043433","authorId":"3576390362043433","name":"chelvi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6a8a4bf7a99f1ceb457affa9db3e865","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576390362043433","idStr":"3576390362043433"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting","listText":"Interesting","text":"Interesting","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2c9dfd7587bd592a74a86e0f1de02d8","width":"1080","height":"3158"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/152668953","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":903,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152663351,"gmtCreate":1625288450973,"gmtModify":1631886910820,"author":{"id":"3576390362043433","authorId":"3576390362043433","name":"chelvi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6a8a4bf7a99f1ceb457affa9db3e865","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576390362043433","idStr":"3576390362043433"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">$American Airlines(AAL)$</a>need help","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">$American Airlines(AAL)$</a>need help","text":"$American Airlines(AAL)$need help","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ced8c434084ea637d6a48ae24422f3b4","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/152663351","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":830,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152660285,"gmtCreate":1625288366247,"gmtModify":1631892933311,"author":{"id":"3576390362043433","authorId":"3576390362043433","name":"chelvi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6a8a4bf7a99f1ceb457affa9db3e865","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576390362043433","idStr":"3576390362043433"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and reply","listText":"Like and reply","text":"Like and reply","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/152660285","repostId":"1197906560","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1197906560","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625285328,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1197906560?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-03 12:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Jobs Report Was Strong. Why Investors Should Be Skeptical.<blockquote>就业报告强劲。为什么投资者应该持怀疑态度。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197906560","media":"Barron's","summary":"On its face, the June jobs report looksalmost perfect. After months of disappointments, hiring beat ","content":"<p>On its face, the June jobs report looksalmost perfect. After months of disappointments, hiring beat Wall Street’s expectations—with wages rising, but at a cooler pace than the lofty levels of spring.</p><p><blockquote>从表面上看，六月份的就业报告看起来几乎完美。在经历了几个月的失望之后，招聘超出了华尔街的预期——工资上涨，但速度低于春季的高水平。</blockquote></p><p> One might be tempted to declare the labor shortage over and the inflation debate done. But investors shouldn’t take the bait just yet. While a nonfarm payroll increase of 850,000 is undeniably strong, it belies a labor market still plagued with supply problems.</p><p><blockquote>人们可能会想宣布劳动力短缺已经结束，通胀辩论已经结束。但投资者现在还不应该上钩。尽管非农就业人数增加85万人不可否认是强劲的，但它掩盖了劳动力市场仍然受到供应问题的困扰。</blockquote></p><p> First, consider that government hiring rose 193,000 last month. That accounts for the entire headline overshoot versus economists’ expectations. Company payrolls increased 662,000, which would be incredible for normal times. Yet it was still far off the one million mark that economists had anticipated by this point in the recovery, as the economy bursts open and vaccinated consumers spend the trillions of dollars in cash stashed during the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>首先，考虑一下上个月政府招聘人数增加了193,000人。这就是整个整体超出经济学家预期的原因。公司就业人数增加了66.2万人，这在正常情况下是不可思议的。然而，随着经济突然开放，接种疫苗的消费者花费了大流行期间储存的数万亿美元现金，这一数字仍远未达到经济学家在复苏阶段预期的100万美元大关。</blockquote></p><p> What’s more, private payrolls came in well short of the one million implied by closely watched data from employee-scheduling company Homebase, says Ian Shepherdson of Pantheon Macroeconomics.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，Pantheon Macroeconomics的伊恩·谢泼德森(Ian Shepherdson)表示，私人就业人数远低于员工调度公司Homebase备受关注的数据所暗示的100万。</blockquote></p><p> Second, labor-force participation was flat in June despite better hiring. That rate, 61.6%, is still down 1.7 percentage points from its prepandemic level. The employment-population ratio, which Federal Reserve officials have said they are watching, was also unchanged in June; at 58%, it remains 3.1 percentage points below its prepandemic level.</p><p><blockquote>其次，尽管招聘情况有所改善，但6月份劳动力参与率持平。这一比率为61.6%，仍比大流行前的水平下降1.7个百分点。美联储官员表示正在关注的就业人口比率在6月份也没有变化；为58%，仍比疫情前水平低3.1个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> Third, the slowdown in wage growth is deceiving. The 0.3% increase from May looks like a Goldilocks print—enough to drive continued spending without fueling inflation fears that have been building as shortages from labor to chips to food push prices broadly higher.</p><p><blockquote>三是工资增速放缓具有欺骗性。较5月份增长0.3%看起来像是金发姑娘，足以推动持续支出，而不会加剧通胀担忧，随着劳动力、薯片和食品的短缺推高价格，通胀担忧一直在加剧。</blockquote></p><p> “If anything, this understates the true rate of underlying wage inflation,” says Jefferies chief economist Aneta Markowska of the June wage increase. After adjusting for the return of low-wage leisure, hospitality, and retail workers, average hourly earnings rose by 0.5% in June from May, she says. By that measure, they are up 4.5% from a year earlier. Over the past three months, overall wages are up an annualized 6% as companies chase workers, says Gad Levanon of the Conference Board.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞首席经济学家阿内塔·马科夫斯卡(Aneta Markowska)在谈到6月份工资增长时表示：“如果说有什么不同的话，那就是这低估了基本工资通胀率的真实水平。”她表示，在调整低工资休闲、酒店和零售工人的回归后，6月份平均时薪较5月份增长了0.5%。按照这一标准，它们比去年同期增长了4.5%。世界大型企业联合会(Conference Board)的加德·莱瓦农(Gad Levanon)表示，过去三个月，随着公司追逐员工，总体工资年化上涨了6%。</blockquote></p><p> Further highlighting the fact that hiring is still being held back by supply, not demand: On an annualized basis this year, leisure and hospitality wages are up 12.3%, transportation and warehousing pay is up 8%, and retail wages are up 5.5%.</p><p><blockquote>这进一步凸显了一个事实，即招聘仍然受到供应而非需求的阻碍：今年按年计算，休闲和酒店工资上涨了12.3%，运输和仓储工资上涨了8%，零售工资上涨了5.5%。</blockquote></p><p> So, what’s an investor to make of the June jobs report? Nothing. Which is to say, the latest data do nothing to resolve the biggest questions facing the labor market.</p><p><blockquote>那么，投资者如何看待6月份的就业报告呢？没有。也就是说，最新数据无助于解决劳动力市场面临的最大问题。</blockquote></p><p> The degrees to which transitory factors—generous unemployment benefits, child-care issues, and Covid-19 concerns—are capping hiring and driving up wages won’t be clear for months. Schools need to reopen to resolve child-care issues holding back working parents, and enhanced unemployment pay needs to expire before it becomes clear the extent to which such benefits are keeping workers home.</p><p><blockquote>暂时性因素——慷慨的失业救济金、儿童保育问题和Covid-19担忧——在多大程度上限制了招聘并推高了工资，几个月内还不清楚。学校需要重新开放，以解决阻碍在职父母的儿童保育问题，而增加的失业救济金需要到期，然后才能清楚这些福利在多大程度上让工人留在家里。</blockquote></p><p> While about two dozen states either started cutting or are about to cut the extra $300 a week in unemployment insurance ahead of the federal program’s Sept. 6 expiration, Shepherdson notes that 70% of those unemployed won’t be affected by those early terminations. Because the June report does nothing to move the Fed’s needle, it shouldn’t stop the stock market from forging ahead.</p><p><blockquote>虽然在联邦计划9月6日到期之前，大约有24个州已经开始或即将削减每周额外300美元的失业保险，但谢泼德森指出，70%的失业者不会受到这些提前终止的影响。由于6月份的报告对美联储没有任何影响，因此不应阻止股市的前进。</blockquote></p><p> At least for now. “You can’t be unhappy to see an 850,000 payroll print, but it’s nowhere near fast enough,” Shepherdson says, especially given labor demand as evidenced by myriad indicators, help-wanted signs, and company commentary. “The labor-supply problem may fix itself, but it may not,” he says. “The issue really is that we could end up with sustained wage inflation.” Policy makers, however, will punt until they have definitive data—and that won’t be until November.</p><p><blockquote>至少现在是这样。谢泼德森表示：“看到85万份工资单打印出来，你不会不高兴，但这还不够快。”特别是考虑到无数指标、求助标志和公司评论所证明的劳动力需求。“劳动力供应问题可能会自行解决，但也可能不会，”他说。“真正的问题是，我们最终可能会面临持续的工资通胀。”然而，政策制定者将在获得明确数据之前犹豫不决——而这要到11月份。</blockquote></p><p> All of this means that data between now and the fall are noise. Many economists and investors are expecting the Fed to announce, at the annual Jackson Hole symposium next month, plans to taper its $120 billion in monthly asset purchases.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都意味着从现在到秋季的数据都是噪音。许多经济学家和投资者预计美联储将在下个月的杰克逊霍尔年度研讨会上宣布缩减每月1200亿美元资产购买规模的计划。</blockquote></p><p> Not so fast, Shepherdson says. “This isn’t as linear as markets would like, and it won’t be clear by Jackson Hole,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>谢泼德森说，没那么快。“这并不像市场希望的那样线性，杰克逊霍尔也不会清楚这一点，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> If that’s right—that the Fed won’t have the data they want in time to lay out taper plans until later in the fall—an even longer period of ultraloose monetary policy might be in store. That is assuming there’s time for officials to telegraph plans well ahead of actually starting to withdraw support.</p><p><blockquote>如果这是正确的——美联储要到秋季晚些时候才能及时获得制定缩减计划所需的数据——可能会出现更长时间的超宽松货币政策。这是假设官员们在实际开始撤回支持之前有时间电传计划。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Therein lies the risk of tuning out the noise, or the employment data, between now and the fall. If the resumption of school and the end to enhanced unemployment benefits don’t bring workers back, it will become clear that structural issues are at play and wage inflation is thus more persistent. As Shepherdson puts it, there is a strong likelihood that the Fed has to raise interest rates in 2022 because there is a good chance people won’t come back into the labor force.</p><p><blockquote>从现在到秋季，忽略噪音或就业数据的风险就在于此。如果学校复课和提高失业救济金的结束不能让工人回来，那么很明显，结构性问题正在发挥作用，工资通胀因此更加持久。正如谢泼德森所说，美联储很有可能不得不在2022年加息，因为人们很有可能不会重返劳动力市场。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should continue to enjoythe stock market gains. But they should also be careful. Waiting for definitive data to show whether the labor shortage is more than transitory means policy makers might have to act sooner and faster than it would seem—especially if deceivingly balanced reports like June’s dot the next few months.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该继续享受股市的涨幅。但他们也应该小心。等待明确的数据来显示劳动力短缺是否不仅仅是暂时的，这意味着政策制定者可能不得不比看起来更快更快地采取行动——特别是如果未来几个月出现像6月份dot这样具有欺骗性的平衡报告。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Jobs Report Was Strong. Why Investors Should Be Skeptical.<blockquote>就业报告强劲。为什么投资者应该持怀疑态度。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Jobs Report Was Strong. Why Investors Should Be Skeptical.<blockquote>就业报告强劲。为什么投资者应该持怀疑态度。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-03 12:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On its face, the June jobs report looksalmost perfect. After months of disappointments, hiring beat Wall Street’s expectations—with wages rising, but at a cooler pace than the lofty levels of spring.</p><p><blockquote>从表面上看，六月份的就业报告看起来几乎完美。在经历了几个月的失望之后，招聘超出了华尔街的预期——工资上涨，但速度低于春季的高水平。</blockquote></p><p> One might be tempted to declare the labor shortage over and the inflation debate done. But investors shouldn’t take the bait just yet. While a nonfarm payroll increase of 850,000 is undeniably strong, it belies a labor market still plagued with supply problems.</p><p><blockquote>人们可能会想宣布劳动力短缺已经结束，通胀辩论已经结束。但投资者现在还不应该上钩。尽管非农就业人数增加85万人不可否认是强劲的，但它掩盖了劳动力市场仍然受到供应问题的困扰。</blockquote></p><p> First, consider that government hiring rose 193,000 last month. That accounts for the entire headline overshoot versus economists’ expectations. Company payrolls increased 662,000, which would be incredible for normal times. Yet it was still far off the one million mark that economists had anticipated by this point in the recovery, as the economy bursts open and vaccinated consumers spend the trillions of dollars in cash stashed during the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>首先，考虑一下上个月政府招聘人数增加了193,000人。这就是整个整体超出经济学家预期的原因。公司就业人数增加了66.2万人，这在正常情况下是不可思议的。然而，随着经济突然开放，接种疫苗的消费者花费了大流行期间储存的数万亿美元现金，这一数字仍远未达到经济学家在复苏阶段预期的100万美元大关。</blockquote></p><p> What’s more, private payrolls came in well short of the one million implied by closely watched data from employee-scheduling company Homebase, says Ian Shepherdson of Pantheon Macroeconomics.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，Pantheon Macroeconomics的伊恩·谢泼德森(Ian Shepherdson)表示，私人就业人数远低于员工调度公司Homebase备受关注的数据所暗示的100万。</blockquote></p><p> Second, labor-force participation was flat in June despite better hiring. That rate, 61.6%, is still down 1.7 percentage points from its prepandemic level. The employment-population ratio, which Federal Reserve officials have said they are watching, was also unchanged in June; at 58%, it remains 3.1 percentage points below its prepandemic level.</p><p><blockquote>其次，尽管招聘情况有所改善，但6月份劳动力参与率持平。这一比率为61.6%，仍比大流行前的水平下降1.7个百分点。美联储官员表示正在关注的就业人口比率在6月份也没有变化；为58%，仍比疫情前水平低3.1个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> Third, the slowdown in wage growth is deceiving. The 0.3% increase from May looks like a Goldilocks print—enough to drive continued spending without fueling inflation fears that have been building as shortages from labor to chips to food push prices broadly higher.</p><p><blockquote>三是工资增速放缓具有欺骗性。较5月份增长0.3%看起来像是金发姑娘，足以推动持续支出，而不会加剧通胀担忧，随着劳动力、薯片和食品的短缺推高价格，通胀担忧一直在加剧。</blockquote></p><p> “If anything, this understates the true rate of underlying wage inflation,” says Jefferies chief economist Aneta Markowska of the June wage increase. After adjusting for the return of low-wage leisure, hospitality, and retail workers, average hourly earnings rose by 0.5% in June from May, she says. By that measure, they are up 4.5% from a year earlier. Over the past three months, overall wages are up an annualized 6% as companies chase workers, says Gad Levanon of the Conference Board.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞首席经济学家阿内塔·马科夫斯卡(Aneta Markowska)在谈到6月份工资增长时表示：“如果说有什么不同的话，那就是这低估了基本工资通胀率的真实水平。”她表示，在调整低工资休闲、酒店和零售工人的回归后，6月份平均时薪较5月份增长了0.5%。按照这一标准，它们比去年同期增长了4.5%。世界大型企业联合会(Conference Board)的加德·莱瓦农(Gad Levanon)表示，过去三个月，随着公司追逐员工，总体工资年化上涨了6%。</blockquote></p><p> Further highlighting the fact that hiring is still being held back by supply, not demand: On an annualized basis this year, leisure and hospitality wages are up 12.3%, transportation and warehousing pay is up 8%, and retail wages are up 5.5%.</p><p><blockquote>这进一步凸显了一个事实，即招聘仍然受到供应而非需求的阻碍：今年按年计算，休闲和酒店工资上涨了12.3%，运输和仓储工资上涨了8%，零售工资上涨了5.5%。</blockquote></p><p> So, what’s an investor to make of the June jobs report? Nothing. Which is to say, the latest data do nothing to resolve the biggest questions facing the labor market.</p><p><blockquote>那么，投资者如何看待6月份的就业报告呢？没有。也就是说，最新数据无助于解决劳动力市场面临的最大问题。</blockquote></p><p> The degrees to which transitory factors—generous unemployment benefits, child-care issues, and Covid-19 concerns—are capping hiring and driving up wages won’t be clear for months. Schools need to reopen to resolve child-care issues holding back working parents, and enhanced unemployment pay needs to expire before it becomes clear the extent to which such benefits are keeping workers home.</p><p><blockquote>暂时性因素——慷慨的失业救济金、儿童保育问题和Covid-19担忧——在多大程度上限制了招聘并推高了工资，几个月内还不清楚。学校需要重新开放，以解决阻碍在职父母的儿童保育问题，而增加的失业救济金需要到期，然后才能清楚这些福利在多大程度上让工人留在家里。</blockquote></p><p> While about two dozen states either started cutting or are about to cut the extra $300 a week in unemployment insurance ahead of the federal program’s Sept. 6 expiration, Shepherdson notes that 70% of those unemployed won’t be affected by those early terminations. Because the June report does nothing to move the Fed’s needle, it shouldn’t stop the stock market from forging ahead.</p><p><blockquote>虽然在联邦计划9月6日到期之前，大约有24个州已经开始或即将削减每周额外300美元的失业保险，但谢泼德森指出，70%的失业者不会受到这些提前终止的影响。由于6月份的报告对美联储没有任何影响，因此不应阻止股市的前进。</blockquote></p><p> At least for now. “You can’t be unhappy to see an 850,000 payroll print, but it’s nowhere near fast enough,” Shepherdson says, especially given labor demand as evidenced by myriad indicators, help-wanted signs, and company commentary. “The labor-supply problem may fix itself, but it may not,” he says. “The issue really is that we could end up with sustained wage inflation.” Policy makers, however, will punt until they have definitive data—and that won’t be until November.</p><p><blockquote>至少现在是这样。谢泼德森表示：“看到85万份工资单打印出来，你不会不高兴，但这还不够快。”特别是考虑到无数指标、求助标志和公司评论所证明的劳动力需求。“劳动力供应问题可能会自行解决，但也可能不会，”他说。“真正的问题是，我们最终可能会面临持续的工资通胀。”然而，政策制定者将在获得明确数据之前犹豫不决——而这要到11月份。</blockquote></p><p> All of this means that data between now and the fall are noise. Many economists and investors are expecting the Fed to announce, at the annual Jackson Hole symposium next month, plans to taper its $120 billion in monthly asset purchases.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都意味着从现在到秋季的数据都是噪音。许多经济学家和投资者预计美联储将在下个月的杰克逊霍尔年度研讨会上宣布缩减每月1200亿美元资产购买规模的计划。</blockquote></p><p> Not so fast, Shepherdson says. “This isn’t as linear as markets would like, and it won’t be clear by Jackson Hole,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>谢泼德森说，没那么快。“这并不像市场希望的那样线性，杰克逊霍尔也不会清楚这一点，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> If that’s right—that the Fed won’t have the data they want in time to lay out taper plans until later in the fall—an even longer period of ultraloose monetary policy might be in store. That is assuming there’s time for officials to telegraph plans well ahead of actually starting to withdraw support.</p><p><blockquote>如果这是正确的——美联储要到秋季晚些时候才能及时获得制定缩减计划所需的数据——可能会出现更长时间的超宽松货币政策。这是假设官员们在实际开始撤回支持之前有时间电传计划。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Therein lies the risk of tuning out the noise, or the employment data, between now and the fall. If the resumption of school and the end to enhanced unemployment benefits don’t bring workers back, it will become clear that structural issues are at play and wage inflation is thus more persistent. As Shepherdson puts it, there is a strong likelihood that the Fed has to raise interest rates in 2022 because there is a good chance people won’t come back into the labor force.</p><p><blockquote>从现在到秋季，忽略噪音或就业数据的风险就在于此。如果学校复课和提高失业救济金的结束不能让工人回来，那么很明显，结构性问题正在发挥作用，工资通胀因此更加持久。正如谢泼德森所说，美联储很有可能不得不在2022年加息，因为人们很有可能不会重返劳动力市场。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should continue to enjoythe stock market gains. But they should also be careful. Waiting for definitive data to show whether the labor shortage is more than transitory means policy makers might have to act sooner and faster than it would seem—especially if deceivingly balanced reports like June’s dot the next few months.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该继续享受股市的涨幅。但他们也应该小心。等待明确的数据来显示劳动力短缺是否不仅仅是暂时的，这意味着政策制定者可能不得不比看起来更快更快地采取行动——特别是如果未来几个月出现像6月份dot这样具有欺骗性的平衡报告。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/jobs-report-investors-should-be-skeptical-51625267210?mod=hp_LEAD_2\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/jobs-report-investors-should-be-skeptical-51625267210?mod=hp_LEAD_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1197906560","content_text":"On its face, the June jobs report looksalmost perfect. After months of disappointments, hiring beat Wall Street’s expectations—with wages rising, but at a cooler pace than the lofty levels of spring.\nOne might be tempted to declare the labor shortage over and the inflation debate done. But investors shouldn’t take the bait just yet. While a nonfarm payroll increase of 850,000 is undeniably strong, it belies a labor market still plagued with supply problems.\nFirst, consider that government hiring rose 193,000 last month. That accounts for the entire headline overshoot versus economists’ expectations. Company payrolls increased 662,000, which would be incredible for normal times. Yet it was still far off the one million mark that economists had anticipated by this point in the recovery, as the economy bursts open and vaccinated consumers spend the trillions of dollars in cash stashed during the pandemic.\nWhat’s more, private payrolls came in well short of the one million implied by closely watched data from employee-scheduling company Homebase, says Ian Shepherdson of Pantheon Macroeconomics.\nSecond, labor-force participation was flat in June despite better hiring. That rate, 61.6%, is still down 1.7 percentage points from its prepandemic level. The employment-population ratio, which Federal Reserve officials have said they are watching, was also unchanged in June; at 58%, it remains 3.1 percentage points below its prepandemic level.\nThird, the slowdown in wage growth is deceiving. The 0.3% increase from May looks like a Goldilocks print—enough to drive continued spending without fueling inflation fears that have been building as shortages from labor to chips to food push prices broadly higher.\n“If anything, this understates the true rate of underlying wage inflation,” says Jefferies chief economist Aneta Markowska of the June wage increase. After adjusting for the return of low-wage leisure, hospitality, and retail workers, average hourly earnings rose by 0.5% in June from May, she says. By that measure, they are up 4.5% from a year earlier. Over the past three months, overall wages are up an annualized 6% as companies chase workers, says Gad Levanon of the Conference Board.\nFurther highlighting the fact that hiring is still being held back by supply, not demand: On an annualized basis this year, leisure and hospitality wages are up 12.3%, transportation and warehousing pay is up 8%, and retail wages are up 5.5%.\nSo, what’s an investor to make of the June jobs report? Nothing. Which is to say, the latest data do nothing to resolve the biggest questions facing the labor market.\nThe degrees to which transitory factors—generous unemployment benefits, child-care issues, and Covid-19 concerns—are capping hiring and driving up wages won’t be clear for months. Schools need to reopen to resolve child-care issues holding back working parents, and enhanced unemployment pay needs to expire before it becomes clear the extent to which such benefits are keeping workers home.\nWhile about two dozen states either started cutting or are about to cut the extra $300 a week in unemployment insurance ahead of the federal program’s Sept. 6 expiration, Shepherdson notes that 70% of those unemployed won’t be affected by those early terminations. Because the June report does nothing to move the Fed’s needle, it shouldn’t stop the stock market from forging ahead.\nAt least for now. “You can’t be unhappy to see an 850,000 payroll print, but it’s nowhere near fast enough,” Shepherdson says, especially given labor demand as evidenced by myriad indicators, help-wanted signs, and company commentary. “The labor-supply problem may fix itself, but it may not,” he says. “The issue really is that we could end up with sustained wage inflation.” Policy makers, however, will punt until they have definitive data—and that won’t be until November.\nAll of this means that data between now and the fall are noise. Many economists and investors are expecting the Fed to announce, at the annual Jackson Hole symposium next month, plans to taper its $120 billion in monthly asset purchases.\nNot so fast, Shepherdson says. “This isn’t as linear as markets would like, and it won’t be clear by Jackson Hole,” he says.\nIf that’s right—that the Fed won’t have the data they want in time to lay out taper plans until later in the fall—an even longer period of ultraloose monetary policy might be in store. That is assuming there’s time for officials to telegraph plans well ahead of actually starting to withdraw support.\nTherein lies the risk of tuning out the noise, or the employment data, between now and the fall. If the resumption of school and the end to enhanced unemployment benefits don’t bring workers back, it will become clear that structural issues are at play and wage inflation is thus more persistent. As Shepherdson puts it, there is a strong likelihood that the Fed has to raise interest rates in 2022 because there is a good chance people won’t come back into the labor force.\nInvestors should continue to enjoythe stock market gains. But they should also be careful. Waiting for definitive data to show whether the labor shortage is more than transitory means policy makers might have to act sooner and faster than it would seem—especially if deceivingly balanced reports like June’s dot the next few months.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":645,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":176860363,"gmtCreate":1626876342152,"gmtModify":1631890738289,"author":{"id":"3576390362043433","authorId":"3576390362043433","name":"chelvi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6a8a4bf7a99f1ceb457affa9db3e865","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576390362043433","authorIdStr":"3576390362043433"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and share&nbsp;","listText":"Like and share&nbsp;","text":"Like and share","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/176860363","repostId":"1182009211","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1182009211","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1626876025,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1182009211?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-21 22:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Cryptocurrency-related stocks soar in morning trading<blockquote>加密货币相关股票早盘飙升</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182009211","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(July 21) Cryptocurrency-related stocks soar in morning trading. \nOn day after sliding below $30,000","content":"<p>(July 21)&nbsp;Cryptocurrency-related stocks soar in morning trading.&nbsp;</p><p><blockquote>（7月21日）加密货币相关股票早盘飙升。</blockquote></p><p> On day after sliding below $30,000, a key support level which many said has to hold, it did just that with bitcoin storming higher and back over $31,000.</p><p><blockquote>在跌破30,000美元（许多人认为必须守住的关键支撑位）后的第二天，随着比特币飙升并回到31,000美元上方，它就做到了这一点。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96ba84b633e0ac3f409f8c463cd88beb\" tg-width=\"310\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1ff2661c20fa3335bbd359f86b5e594\" tg-width=\"687\" tg-height=\"733\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Cryptocurrency-related stocks soar in morning trading<blockquote>加密货币相关股票早盘飙升</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCryptocurrency-related stocks soar in morning trading<blockquote>加密货币相关股票早盘飙升</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-21 22:00</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(July 21)&nbsp;Cryptocurrency-related stocks soar in morning trading.&nbsp;</p><p><blockquote>（7月21日）加密货币相关股票早盘飙升。</blockquote></p><p> On day after sliding below $30,000, a key support level which many said has to hold, it did just that with bitcoin storming higher and back over $31,000.</p><p><blockquote>在跌破30,000美元（许多人认为必须守住的关键支撑位）后的第二天，随着比特币飙升并回到31,000美元上方，它就做到了这一点。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96ba84b633e0ac3f409f8c463cd88beb\" tg-width=\"310\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1ff2661c20fa3335bbd359f86b5e594\" tg-width=\"687\" tg-height=\"733\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182009211","content_text":"(July 21) Cryptocurrency-related stocks soar in morning trading. \nOn day after sliding below $30,000, a key support level which many said has to hold, it did just that with bitcoin storming higher and back over $31,000.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1674,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":352008792,"gmtCreate":1616823176316,"gmtModify":1634523807182,"author":{"id":"3576390362043433","authorId":"3576390362043433","name":"chelvi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6a8a4bf7a99f1ceb457affa9db3e865","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576390362043433","authorIdStr":"3576390362043433"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and&nbsp; comment","listText":"Like and&nbsp; comment","text":"Like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/352008792","repostId":"1141686975","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1141686975","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1616780260,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1141686975?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-27 01:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Zhihu Technology fall on its first day of trading<blockquote>知乎科技上市首日下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141686975","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Zhihu Technology shares opened at $8.02 each on Friday, about 15.6% lower than the company’s IPO pri","content":"<p>Zhihu Technology shares opened at $8.02&nbsp;each on Friday, about 15.6% lower than the company’s IPO price&nbsp;$9.5.Zhihu IPO prices at low end of the range, valuing company at about $5.3 billion.</p><p><blockquote>知乎科技股价周五开盘价为每股8.02美元，比该公司9.5美元的IPO价格低约15.6%。知乎IPO价格处于区间低端，公司估值约为53亿美元。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4672a089b4ebb0a889cbfbeb32b48594\" tg-width=\"1920\" tg-height=\"959\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Zhihu Inc.&nbsp;announced Friday the pricing of its initial public offering, at $9.50 per American depositary share, which was at the low end of the expected range. The China-based online content company offered 55 million ADS in the IPO to raise $522.5 million, while the pricing valued the company at about $5.31 billion.</p><p><blockquote>知乎公司周五宣布其首次公开募股定价为每股美国存托股9.50美元，处于预期区间的低端。这家总部位于中国的在线内容公司在IPO中发行了5500万份ADS，筹集了5.225亿美元，而该公司的定价约为53.1亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Zhihu has a similar business model as Quora where millions of people ask questions and exchange their views and experiences. Zhihu has become the largest online question and answer community in China.</p><p><blockquote>知乎的商业模式与Quora相似，数百万人提问并交流他们的观点和经验。知乎已经成为国内最大的在线问答社区。</blockquote></p><p><b>Sales Breakdown</b></p><p><blockquote><b>销售明细</b></blockquote></p><p>Advertising and paid memberships account for the biggest portion of the company's revenues. Advertising accounted for 86.1% and 62.4% of total revenues in 2019 and 2020, respectively. We estimate advertising as a percentage of revenues to gradually decline in the next five years as it is offset by the faster growing Paid Memberships and Content Commerce Solutions. We estimate advertising as a percentage of sales to decline to 34.1% in 2021 and 22.3% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>广告和付费会员占公司收入的最大部分。2019年和2020年，广告分别占总收入的86.1%和62.4%。我们预计广告占收入的百分比将在未来五年内逐渐下降，因为它被更快增长的付费会员和内容商务解决方案所抵消。我们预计广告占销售额的百分比将在2021年下降至34.1%，在2025年下降至22.3%。</blockquote></p><p>Paid Memberships represented 13.1% of total revenues in 2019, which increased to 23.7% of total revenues in 2020. We have assumed Paid Membership revenues as a percentage of total revenues to increase to 31.5% in 2021 and 37.8% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>付费会员占2019年总收入的13.1%，2020年增至总收入的23.7%。我们假设付费会员收入占总收入的百分比将在2021年和2025年分别增至31.5%和37.8%。</blockquote></p><p>Content Commerce Solutions and Other sales also increased sharply in 2020. Content Commerce Solutions revenues jumped from 0.6 million RMB in 2019 to 135.8 million RMB in 2020. In early 2020, the company launched Content-Commerce solutions, which provide merchants and brands a one-stop shop for all of their sales and marketing needs, including marketing plans. We have assumed Content Commerce Solutions as a percentage of total revenue to jump from 10% in 2020 to 17.8% in 2021 and 32.3% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，内容商务解决方案和其他销售额也大幅增长。内容商务解决方案收入从2019年的60万元跃升至2020年的1.358亿元。2020年初，该公司推出了内容商务解决方案，为商家和品牌提供一站式服务，满足其所有销售和营销需求，包括营销计划。我们假设内容商务解决方案占总收入的百分比将从2020年的10%跃升至2021年的17.8%和2025年的32.3%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Gross Margins</b></p><p><blockquote><b>毛利率</b></blockquote></p><p>The company's gross margins improved from 46.6% in 2019 to 56.0% in 2020, driven by an overall improving business scalability. We have assumed further improvements in gross margins to 57.4% in 2021 and 62.3% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>在业务可扩展性整体提升的推动下，公司毛利率从2019年的46.6%提升至2020年的56.0%。我们假设毛利率在2021年和2025年进一步提高至57.4%和62.3%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Total Operating Expenses and Operating Margins</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总营业费用和营业利润率</b></blockquote></p><p>Total operating expenses as a percentage of revenues declined significantly from 204.4% in 2019 to 100.6% in 2020. We expect this ratio to improve further to 79% in 2021, 69.2% in 2022, and 57.2% in 2025. The bulk of the improvements in operating expenses is coming from lower SG&amp;A and R&amp;D expenses as a percentage of revenues in the next five years.</p><p><blockquote>总运营费用占收入的百分比由2019年的204.4%大幅下降至2020年的100.6%。我们预计这一比例将在2021年进一步提高至79%，2022年为69.2%，2025年为57.2%。运营费用的改善大部分来自未来五年SG&amp;A和R&amp;D费用占收入百分比的降低。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c019cc86f4d4c1d9ffe15d3b4a4bfa75\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef629be32d2c34d625cb287ad648206d\" tg-width=\"757\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9561a02993fbc88c2cad88e68c08730\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"485\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Company Background</b></p><p><blockquote><b>公司背景</b></blockquote></p><p>At the end of 2020, Zhihu had more than 43.1 million cumulative content creators that contributed 315 million questions and answers. In 4Q 2020, the company had 75.7 million average monthly active users, up 33% YoY. One of the key strengths of the company is that it is recognized as one of the most trustworthy online content communities and regarded as providing one of the highest quality content in China. Zhihu has tried to capitalize on its large user base to provide numerous multimedia functions including live streaming, e-commerce, online education, and other video content.</p><p><blockquote>2020年底，知乎累计有超过4310万内容创作者，贡献了3.15亿个问答。2020年第四季度，该公司平均月活跃用户为7570万，同比增长33%。该公司的关键优势之一是，它被公认为最值得信赖的在线内容社区之一，并被视为提供中国最优质的内容之一。知乎试图利用其庞大的用户群提供众多多媒体功能，包括直播、电子商务、在线教育和其他视频内容。</blockquote></p><p>In August 2019, Zhihu received $434 million in funding from leading investors including Baidu and Kuaishou Technology, valuing the company at $3.5 billion. Given that the company had $97 million in sales in 2019, this would suggest a P/S valuation multiple of 36x. If we take the same P/S multiple apply to the company's 2020 sales of $207 million, this would suggest an implied valuation of $7.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>2019年8月，知乎获得了包括百度和快手科技在内的领先投资者4.34亿美元的融资，公司估值为35亿美元。鉴于该公司2019年的销售额为9700万美元，这意味着市盈率估值倍数为36倍。如果我们将相同的市盈率倍数应用于该公司2020年2.07亿美元的销售额，这将表明隐含估值为75亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Zhihu was originally developed as a question and answer online community in 2010. At the end of 2020, there were a total of 315 million Q&amp;As spanning more than 1,000 verticals and 571,000 topics. Zhihu is one of the top five comprehensive online content communities in China, in terms of average mobile MAUs and revenue in 2020. The company uses artificial intelligence, cloud, and big data algorithms to improve the optimization of its content and services.</p><p><blockquote>知乎最初是在2010年作为一个问答在线社区开发的。截至2020年底，共有3.15亿次问答，跨越1000多个垂直领域和57.1万个主题。按2020年平均移动月活跃用户数及收入计，知乎是中国五大综合在线内容社区之一。该公司使用人工智能、云和大数据算法来提高其内容和服务的优化。</blockquote></p><p><b>Major Shareholders of Zhihu</b></p><p><blockquote><b>知乎主要股东</b></blockquote></p><p>The founder &amp; CEO&nbsp;Zhou Yuanowns an 8.2% stake in the company (but 46.6% voting rights). Sinovation Ventures owns a 13.1% stake and Tencent Holdings Ltd. owns a 12.3% stake of Zhihu.</p><p><blockquote>创始人兼首席执行官周元拥有该公司8.2%的股份（但拥有46.6%的投票权）。创新工场拥有知乎13.1%的股份，腾讯控股控股有限公司拥有知乎12.3%的股份。</blockquote></p><p><b>Key Demographics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关键人口统计</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>The diagram below provides some of the key demographics of Zhihu user base. Males accounted for 56.9% of total users. People under 30 years old accounted for 78.7% of its total user base. Tier I and new tier I cities represented 52.6% of total user base. Many of the users of Zhihu are students and white collar professionals.</p><p><blockquote>下图提供了知乎用户群的一些关键人口统计数据。男性用户占总用户的56.9%。30岁以下人群占其总用户群的78.7%。一线及新一线城市佔总用户群的52.6%。知乎的很多用户都是学生和白领专业人士。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/524d689472daad1c99491d74dfdbfe24\" tg-width=\"295\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Revenue Breakdown</b></p><p><blockquote><b>收入明细</b></blockquote></p><p>Advertising and paid memberships account for the biggest portion of the company's revenues. Advertising accounted for 86.1% and 62.4% of total revenues in 2019 and 2020, respectively. The company's advertising revenue is mainly driven by its MAUs and advertising revenue per MAU. The company's MAUs increased by 42.7% YoY to 68.5 million in 2020. The company started its online advertising business in 2016 and introduced paid content in 2018.</p><p><blockquote>广告和付费会员占公司收入的最大部分。2019年和2020年，广告分别占总收入的86.1%和62.4%。该公司的广告收入主要由其月活跃用户数和每个月活跃用户数的广告收入推动。2020年，公司月活跃用户数同比增长42.7%至6850万。该公司于2016年开始在线广告业务，并于2018年引入付费内容。</blockquote></p><p>Paid memberships represented 13.1% of total revenues in 2019, which increased to 23.7% of total revenues in 2020. Average monthly members jumped by 311.5% YoY to 2.36 million in 2020, which is a testament of an increasing number of customers that value the premium content available on Zhihu.</p><p><blockquote>付费会员占2019年总收入的13.1%，2020年增至总收入的23.7%。2020年，月均会员同比增长311.5%至236万，这证明越来越多的客户重视知乎上的优质内容。</blockquote></p><p>In March 2019, the company introduced the Yan Selection membership program, making it the first payment-based questions &amp; answers community. It provides its members with unlimited access to about 3.4 million paid content including online lectures, columns, audio books, and e-journals. This is one of the biggest strengths of the company as it shows how high quality data and content can generate serious amount of revenues and it also provides a more steady monthly revenue inflow.</p><p><blockquote>2019年3月，公司推出Yan Selection会员计划，使其成为第一个基于付费的问答社区。它为会员提供了对约340万个付费内容的无限制访问，包括在线讲座、专栏、有声读物和电子期刊。这是该公司最大的优势之一，因为它显示了高质量的数据和内容如何能够产生大量收入，并且还提供了更稳定的每月收入流入。</blockquote></p><p>Content Commerce Solutions and Other sales also increased sharply in 2020. Content Commerce Solutions revenues jumped from 0.6 million RMB in 2019 to 135.8 million RMB in 2020. In early 2020, the company launched Content-Commerce solutions, which provide merchants and brands a one-stop shop for all of their sales and marketing needs, including marketing plans, assigning the most relevant content creators to interested users, and facilitating content creation.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，内容商务解决方案和其他销售额也大幅增长。内容商务解决方案收入从2019年的60万元跃升至2020年的1.358亿元。2020年初，该公司推出了内容商务解决方案，为商家和品牌提供一站式服务，满足其所有销售和营销需求，包括营销计划、为感兴趣的用户分配最相关的内容创作者以及促进内容创作。</blockquote></p><p>China's content-commerce solution market is expected to be one of the fastest growing sectors in the next several years. According to CIC Consultancy, China's content-commerce solution market is expected to enjoy a strong CAGR growth of 46.4% from 2019 to 2025 (112.3 billion RMB).</p><p><blockquote>中国的内容商务解决方案市场预计将成为未来几年增长最快的行业之一。根据灼识谘询的资料，中国内容商务解决方案市场预期于2019年至2025年将享有46.4%的强劲复合年增长率（1,123亿元人民币）。</blockquote></p><p><b>Market Opportunities</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Online Content Communities Market Size</b></p><p><blockquote><b>中国在线内容社区市场规模</b></blockquote></p><p>Online content communities refer to UGC (user generated content)-focused (including PUGC (professional user generated content) focused online content market players where content creators are also users, who are actively engaged within the communities. The content communities generally can stimulate higher level of user engagement, more interactive user experience, and enjoy lower content cost, compared to PGC (professionally generated content) players. PGC is content created by the branded company or organization.</p><p><blockquote>在线内容社区是指专注于UGC（用户生成内容）（包括PUGC（专业用户生成内容））的在线内容市场参与者，其中内容创作者也是用户，他们积极参与社区。与PGC（专业生成内容）玩家相比，内容社区通常可以激发更高水平的用户参与度、更具互动性的用户体验，并享受更低的内容成本。PGC是由品牌公司或组织创建的内容。</blockquote></p><p>China's online content communities market size increased from 38.6 billion RMB in 2015 to 275.8 billion RMB in 2019 and is further expected to rise to 1.3 trillion RMB in 2025, representing a CAGR of 30.3% from 2019 to 2025, which is higher than the overall online content market growth.</p><p><blockquote>中国在线内容社区市场规模由2015年的386亿元人民币增至2019年的2758亿元人民币，预计将进一步增至2025年的1.3万亿元人民币，2019年至2025年的复合年增长率为30.3%，高于整体在线内容市场增长。</blockquote></p><p>China's online content community market has more diversified monetization channels including online advertising, paid membership, content e-commerce, content-commerce solutions, virtual gifting in live streaming, online games, and online education services. In comparison, the US online content community's monetization is mainly through advertising.</p><p><blockquote>中国在线内容社区市场拥有更多元化的变现渠道，包括在线广告、付费会员、内容电商、内容电商解决方案、直播虚拟礼品、在线游戏及在线教育服务。相比之下，美国在线内容社区的变现主要是通过广告。</blockquote></p><p>One of the major positives about the company is the growing trend of more Chinese consumers that are willing to pay money for higher quality content. The number of paying users in China’s online content communities is expected to increase at a CAGR of 17.1% between 2019 and 2025, which means an increase of 360.4 million extra paying users of online content communities to 588.2 million in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的一个主要积极因素是，越来越多的中国消费者愿意为更高质量的内容付费。预计2019年至2025年期间，中国在线内容社区的付费用户数量将以17.1%的复合年增长率增长，这意味着在线内容社区的额外付费用户将增加3.604亿至2025年的5.882亿。</blockquote></p><p><b>China's Online Content Market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>中国在线内容市场</b></blockquote></p><p>China's online content market tripled from 2015 to reach 1.2 trillion RMB in 2019. This market is expected to increase to 3.7 trillion RMB in 2025, representing a CAGR of 21.4% from 2019 to 2025.</p><p><blockquote>中国在线内容市场较2015年增长两倍，2019年达到1.2万亿人民币。预计该市场将于2025年增至3.7万亿元人民币，2019年至2025年的复合年增长率为21.4%。</blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Online Content Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2015年至2025年（估计）中国在线内容市场规模（按收入计）</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69a7db9cacf26245273702a255aabdb8\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Market Size of China’s Online Content Communities (in terms of revenue),2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>二零一五年至二零二五年（估计）中国在线内容社区的市场规模（以收益计）</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aee42792caf4aa2cbdcd17f757a75727\" tg-width=\"584\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Paid Membership Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>中国付费会员市场规模（以收入计），2015年至2025年（估计）</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77ff121d78cb1dd922d524a78570152e\" tg-width=\"520\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Content-commerce solutions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>内容商务解决方案</b></blockquote></p><p>To provide integrated marketing services, the online content communities provide content-commerce solutions for content creation, content distribution, and content conversion. The company provides integrated content-commerce solutions, providing merchants and brands one-stop services for all their sales and marketing needs, from making marketing plans, facilitating content creation, assigning the most relevant content creators, to distributing to the interested users. China's content commerce solution market is expected to grow from 11.4 billion RMB in 2019 to 112.3 billion RMB in 2025, at a CAGR of 46.4%.</p><p><blockquote>为了提供整合营销服务，在线内容社区为内容创建、内容分发和内容转换提供内容商务解决方案。该公司提供综合内容商务解决方案，为商家和品牌的所有销售和营销需求提供一站式服务，从制定营销计划、促进内容创作、分配最相关的内容创作者，到向感兴趣的用户分发。中国内容商务解决方案市场预期将由2019年的人民币114亿元增长至2025年的人民币1123亿元，复合年增长率为46.4%。</blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Content-Commerce Solution Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>二零一五年至二零二五年（估计）中国内容商务解决方案市场规模（以收入计）</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01a230d3fb2d4cf4aeeebfd5c3c691c3\" tg-width=\"520\" tg-height=\"269\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Zhihu Technology fall on its first day of trading<blockquote>知乎科技上市首日下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nZhihu Technology fall on its first day of trading<blockquote>知乎科技上市首日下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-27 01:37</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Zhihu Technology shares opened at $8.02&nbsp;each on Friday, about 15.6% lower than the company’s IPO price&nbsp;$9.5.Zhihu IPO prices at low end of the range, valuing company at about $5.3 billion.</p><p><blockquote>知乎科技股价周五开盘价为每股8.02美元，比该公司9.5美元的IPO价格低约15.6%。知乎IPO价格处于区间低端，公司估值约为53亿美元。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4672a089b4ebb0a889cbfbeb32b48594\" tg-width=\"1920\" tg-height=\"959\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Zhihu Inc.&nbsp;announced Friday the pricing of its initial public offering, at $9.50 per American depositary share, which was at the low end of the expected range. The China-based online content company offered 55 million ADS in the IPO to raise $522.5 million, while the pricing valued the company at about $5.31 billion.</p><p><blockquote>知乎公司周五宣布其首次公开募股定价为每股美国存托股9.50美元，处于预期区间的低端。这家总部位于中国的在线内容公司在IPO中发行了5500万份ADS，筹集了5.225亿美元，而该公司的定价约为53.1亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Zhihu has a similar business model as Quora where millions of people ask questions and exchange their views and experiences. Zhihu has become the largest online question and answer community in China.</p><p><blockquote>知乎的商业模式与Quora相似，数百万人提问并交流他们的观点和经验。知乎已经成为国内最大的在线问答社区。</blockquote></p><p><b>Sales Breakdown</b></p><p><blockquote><b>销售明细</b></blockquote></p><p>Advertising and paid memberships account for the biggest portion of the company's revenues. Advertising accounted for 86.1% and 62.4% of total revenues in 2019 and 2020, respectively. We estimate advertising as a percentage of revenues to gradually decline in the next five years as it is offset by the faster growing Paid Memberships and Content Commerce Solutions. We estimate advertising as a percentage of sales to decline to 34.1% in 2021 and 22.3% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>广告和付费会员占公司收入的最大部分。2019年和2020年，广告分别占总收入的86.1%和62.4%。我们预计广告占收入的百分比将在未来五年内逐渐下降，因为它被更快增长的付费会员和内容商务解决方案所抵消。我们预计广告占销售额的百分比将在2021年下降至34.1%，在2025年下降至22.3%。</blockquote></p><p>Paid Memberships represented 13.1% of total revenues in 2019, which increased to 23.7% of total revenues in 2020. We have assumed Paid Membership revenues as a percentage of total revenues to increase to 31.5% in 2021 and 37.8% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>付费会员占2019年总收入的13.1%，2020年增至总收入的23.7%。我们假设付费会员收入占总收入的百分比将在2021年和2025年分别增至31.5%和37.8%。</blockquote></p><p>Content Commerce Solutions and Other sales also increased sharply in 2020. Content Commerce Solutions revenues jumped from 0.6 million RMB in 2019 to 135.8 million RMB in 2020. In early 2020, the company launched Content-Commerce solutions, which provide merchants and brands a one-stop shop for all of their sales and marketing needs, including marketing plans. We have assumed Content Commerce Solutions as a percentage of total revenue to jump from 10% in 2020 to 17.8% in 2021 and 32.3% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，内容商务解决方案和其他销售额也大幅增长。内容商务解决方案收入从2019年的60万元跃升至2020年的1.358亿元。2020年初，该公司推出了内容商务解决方案，为商家和品牌提供一站式服务，满足其所有销售和营销需求，包括营销计划。我们假设内容商务解决方案占总收入的百分比将从2020年的10%跃升至2021年的17.8%和2025年的32.3%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Gross Margins</b></p><p><blockquote><b>毛利率</b></blockquote></p><p>The company's gross margins improved from 46.6% in 2019 to 56.0% in 2020, driven by an overall improving business scalability. We have assumed further improvements in gross margins to 57.4% in 2021 and 62.3% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>在业务可扩展性整体提升的推动下，公司毛利率从2019年的46.6%提升至2020年的56.0%。我们假设毛利率在2021年和2025年进一步提高至57.4%和62.3%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Total Operating Expenses and Operating Margins</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总营业费用和营业利润率</b></blockquote></p><p>Total operating expenses as a percentage of revenues declined significantly from 204.4% in 2019 to 100.6% in 2020. We expect this ratio to improve further to 79% in 2021, 69.2% in 2022, and 57.2% in 2025. The bulk of the improvements in operating expenses is coming from lower SG&amp;A and R&amp;D expenses as a percentage of revenues in the next five years.</p><p><blockquote>总运营费用占收入的百分比由2019年的204.4%大幅下降至2020年的100.6%。我们预计这一比例将在2021年进一步提高至79%，2022年为69.2%，2025年为57.2%。运营费用的改善大部分来自未来五年SG&amp;A和R&amp;D费用占收入百分比的降低。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c019cc86f4d4c1d9ffe15d3b4a4bfa75\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef629be32d2c34d625cb287ad648206d\" tg-width=\"757\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9561a02993fbc88c2cad88e68c08730\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"485\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Company Background</b></p><p><blockquote><b>公司背景</b></blockquote></p><p>At the end of 2020, Zhihu had more than 43.1 million cumulative content creators that contributed 315 million questions and answers. In 4Q 2020, the company had 75.7 million average monthly active users, up 33% YoY. One of the key strengths of the company is that it is recognized as one of the most trustworthy online content communities and regarded as providing one of the highest quality content in China. Zhihu has tried to capitalize on its large user base to provide numerous multimedia functions including live streaming, e-commerce, online education, and other video content.</p><p><blockquote>2020年底，知乎累计有超过4310万内容创作者，贡献了3.15亿个问答。2020年第四季度，该公司平均月活跃用户为7570万，同比增长33%。该公司的关键优势之一是，它被公认为最值得信赖的在线内容社区之一，并被视为提供中国最优质的内容之一。知乎试图利用其庞大的用户群提供众多多媒体功能，包括直播、电子商务、在线教育和其他视频内容。</blockquote></p><p>In August 2019, Zhihu received $434 million in funding from leading investors including Baidu and Kuaishou Technology, valuing the company at $3.5 billion. Given that the company had $97 million in sales in 2019, this would suggest a P/S valuation multiple of 36x. If we take the same P/S multiple apply to the company's 2020 sales of $207 million, this would suggest an implied valuation of $7.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>2019年8月，知乎获得了包括百度和快手科技在内的领先投资者4.34亿美元的融资，公司估值为35亿美元。鉴于该公司2019年的销售额为9700万美元，这意味着市盈率估值倍数为36倍。如果我们将相同的市盈率倍数应用于该公司2020年2.07亿美元的销售额，这将表明隐含估值为75亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Zhihu was originally developed as a question and answer online community in 2010. At the end of 2020, there were a total of 315 million Q&amp;As spanning more than 1,000 verticals and 571,000 topics. Zhihu is one of the top five comprehensive online content communities in China, in terms of average mobile MAUs and revenue in 2020. The company uses artificial intelligence, cloud, and big data algorithms to improve the optimization of its content and services.</p><p><blockquote>知乎最初是在2010年作为一个问答在线社区开发的。截至2020年底，共有3.15亿次问答，跨越1000多个垂直领域和57.1万个主题。按2020年平均移动月活跃用户数及收入计，知乎是中国五大综合在线内容社区之一。该公司使用人工智能、云和大数据算法来提高其内容和服务的优化。</blockquote></p><p><b>Major Shareholders of Zhihu</b></p><p><blockquote><b>知乎主要股东</b></blockquote></p><p>The founder &amp; CEO&nbsp;Zhou Yuanowns an 8.2% stake in the company (but 46.6% voting rights). Sinovation Ventures owns a 13.1% stake and Tencent Holdings Ltd. owns a 12.3% stake of Zhihu.</p><p><blockquote>创始人兼首席执行官周元拥有该公司8.2%的股份（但拥有46.6%的投票权）。创新工场拥有知乎13.1%的股份，腾讯控股控股有限公司拥有知乎12.3%的股份。</blockquote></p><p><b>Key Demographics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关键人口统计</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>The diagram below provides some of the key demographics of Zhihu user base. Males accounted for 56.9% of total users. People under 30 years old accounted for 78.7% of its total user base. Tier I and new tier I cities represented 52.6% of total user base. Many of the users of Zhihu are students and white collar professionals.</p><p><blockquote>下图提供了知乎用户群的一些关键人口统计数据。男性用户占总用户的56.9%。30岁以下人群占其总用户群的78.7%。一线及新一线城市佔总用户群的52.6%。知乎的很多用户都是学生和白领专业人士。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/524d689472daad1c99491d74dfdbfe24\" tg-width=\"295\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Revenue Breakdown</b></p><p><blockquote><b>收入明细</b></blockquote></p><p>Advertising and paid memberships account for the biggest portion of the company's revenues. Advertising accounted for 86.1% and 62.4% of total revenues in 2019 and 2020, respectively. The company's advertising revenue is mainly driven by its MAUs and advertising revenue per MAU. The company's MAUs increased by 42.7% YoY to 68.5 million in 2020. The company started its online advertising business in 2016 and introduced paid content in 2018.</p><p><blockquote>广告和付费会员占公司收入的最大部分。2019年和2020年，广告分别占总收入的86.1%和62.4%。该公司的广告收入主要由其月活跃用户数和每个月活跃用户数的广告收入推动。2020年，公司月活跃用户数同比增长42.7%至6850万。该公司于2016年开始在线广告业务，并于2018年引入付费内容。</blockquote></p><p>Paid memberships represented 13.1% of total revenues in 2019, which increased to 23.7% of total revenues in 2020. Average monthly members jumped by 311.5% YoY to 2.36 million in 2020, which is a testament of an increasing number of customers that value the premium content available on Zhihu.</p><p><blockquote>付费会员占2019年总收入的13.1%，2020年增至总收入的23.7%。2020年，月均会员同比增长311.5%至236万，这证明越来越多的客户重视知乎上的优质内容。</blockquote></p><p>In March 2019, the company introduced the Yan Selection membership program, making it the first payment-based questions &amp; answers community. It provides its members with unlimited access to about 3.4 million paid content including online lectures, columns, audio books, and e-journals. This is one of the biggest strengths of the company as it shows how high quality data and content can generate serious amount of revenues and it also provides a more steady monthly revenue inflow.</p><p><blockquote>2019年3月，公司推出Yan Selection会员计划，使其成为第一个基于付费的问答社区。它为会员提供了对约340万个付费内容的无限制访问，包括在线讲座、专栏、有声读物和电子期刊。这是该公司最大的优势之一，因为它显示了高质量的数据和内容如何能够产生大量收入，并且还提供了更稳定的每月收入流入。</blockquote></p><p>Content Commerce Solutions and Other sales also increased sharply in 2020. Content Commerce Solutions revenues jumped from 0.6 million RMB in 2019 to 135.8 million RMB in 2020. In early 2020, the company launched Content-Commerce solutions, which provide merchants and brands a one-stop shop for all of their sales and marketing needs, including marketing plans, assigning the most relevant content creators to interested users, and facilitating content creation.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，内容商务解决方案和其他销售额也大幅增长。内容商务解决方案收入从2019年的60万元跃升至2020年的1.358亿元。2020年初，该公司推出了内容商务解决方案，为商家和品牌提供一站式服务，满足其所有销售和营销需求，包括营销计划、为感兴趣的用户分配最相关的内容创作者以及促进内容创作。</blockquote></p><p>China's content-commerce solution market is expected to be one of the fastest growing sectors in the next several years. According to CIC Consultancy, China's content-commerce solution market is expected to enjoy a strong CAGR growth of 46.4% from 2019 to 2025 (112.3 billion RMB).</p><p><blockquote>中国的内容商务解决方案市场预计将成为未来几年增长最快的行业之一。根据灼识谘询的资料，中国内容商务解决方案市场预期于2019年至2025年将享有46.4%的强劲复合年增长率（1,123亿元人民币）。</blockquote></p><p><b>Market Opportunities</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Online Content Communities Market Size</b></p><p><blockquote><b>中国在线内容社区市场规模</b></blockquote></p><p>Online content communities refer to UGC (user generated content)-focused (including PUGC (professional user generated content) focused online content market players where content creators are also users, who are actively engaged within the communities. The content communities generally can stimulate higher level of user engagement, more interactive user experience, and enjoy lower content cost, compared to PGC (professionally generated content) players. PGC is content created by the branded company or organization.</p><p><blockquote>在线内容社区是指专注于UGC（用户生成内容）（包括PUGC（专业用户生成内容））的在线内容市场参与者，其中内容创作者也是用户，他们积极参与社区。与PGC（专业生成内容）玩家相比，内容社区通常可以激发更高水平的用户参与度、更具互动性的用户体验，并享受更低的内容成本。PGC是由品牌公司或组织创建的内容。</blockquote></p><p>China's online content communities market size increased from 38.6 billion RMB in 2015 to 275.8 billion RMB in 2019 and is further expected to rise to 1.3 trillion RMB in 2025, representing a CAGR of 30.3% from 2019 to 2025, which is higher than the overall online content market growth.</p><p><blockquote>中国在线内容社区市场规模由2015年的386亿元人民币增至2019年的2758亿元人民币，预计将进一步增至2025年的1.3万亿元人民币，2019年至2025年的复合年增长率为30.3%，高于整体在线内容市场增长。</blockquote></p><p>China's online content community market has more diversified monetization channels including online advertising, paid membership, content e-commerce, content-commerce solutions, virtual gifting in live streaming, online games, and online education services. In comparison, the US online content community's monetization is mainly through advertising.</p><p><blockquote>中国在线内容社区市场拥有更多元化的变现渠道，包括在线广告、付费会员、内容电商、内容电商解决方案、直播虚拟礼品、在线游戏及在线教育服务。相比之下，美国在线内容社区的变现主要是通过广告。</blockquote></p><p>One of the major positives about the company is the growing trend of more Chinese consumers that are willing to pay money for higher quality content. The number of paying users in China’s online content communities is expected to increase at a CAGR of 17.1% between 2019 and 2025, which means an increase of 360.4 million extra paying users of online content communities to 588.2 million in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的一个主要积极因素是，越来越多的中国消费者愿意为更高质量的内容付费。预计2019年至2025年期间，中国在线内容社区的付费用户数量将以17.1%的复合年增长率增长，这意味着在线内容社区的额外付费用户将增加3.604亿至2025年的5.882亿。</blockquote></p><p><b>China's Online Content Market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>中国在线内容市场</b></blockquote></p><p>China's online content market tripled from 2015 to reach 1.2 trillion RMB in 2019. This market is expected to increase to 3.7 trillion RMB in 2025, representing a CAGR of 21.4% from 2019 to 2025.</p><p><blockquote>中国在线内容市场较2015年增长两倍，2019年达到1.2万亿人民币。预计该市场将于2025年增至3.7万亿元人民币，2019年至2025年的复合年增长率为21.4%。</blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Online Content Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2015年至2025年（估计）中国在线内容市场规模（按收入计）</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69a7db9cacf26245273702a255aabdb8\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Market Size of China’s Online Content Communities (in terms of revenue),2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>二零一五年至二零二五年（估计）中国在线内容社区的市场规模（以收益计）</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aee42792caf4aa2cbdcd17f757a75727\" tg-width=\"584\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Paid Membership Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>中国付费会员市场规模（以收入计），2015年至2025年（估计）</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77ff121d78cb1dd922d524a78570152e\" tg-width=\"520\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Content-commerce solutions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>内容商务解决方案</b></blockquote></p><p>To provide integrated marketing services, the online content communities provide content-commerce solutions for content creation, content distribution, and content conversion. The company provides integrated content-commerce solutions, providing merchants and brands one-stop services for all their sales and marketing needs, from making marketing plans, facilitating content creation, assigning the most relevant content creators, to distributing to the interested users. China's content commerce solution market is expected to grow from 11.4 billion RMB in 2019 to 112.3 billion RMB in 2025, at a CAGR of 46.4%.</p><p><blockquote>为了提供整合营销服务，在线内容社区为内容创建、内容分发和内容转换提供内容商务解决方案。该公司提供综合内容商务解决方案，为商家和品牌的所有销售和营销需求提供一站式服务，从制定营销计划、促进内容创作、分配最相关的内容创作者，到向感兴趣的用户分发。中国内容商务解决方案市场预期将由2019年的人民币114亿元增长至2025年的人民币1123亿元，复合年增长率为46.4%。</blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Content-Commerce Solution Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>二零一五年至二零二五年（估计）中国内容商务解决方案市场规模（以收入计）</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01a230d3fb2d4cf4aeeebfd5c3c691c3\" tg-width=\"520\" tg-height=\"269\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ZH":"知乎"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141686975","content_text":"Zhihu Technology shares opened at $8.02 each on Friday, about 15.6% lower than the company’s IPO price $9.5.Zhihu IPO prices at low end of the range, valuing company at about $5.3 billion.Zhihu Inc. announced Friday the pricing of its initial public offering, at $9.50 per American depositary share, which was at the low end of the expected range. The China-based online content company offered 55 million ADS in the IPO to raise $522.5 million, while the pricing valued the company at about $5.31 billion.Zhihu has a similar business model as Quora where millions of people ask questions and exchange their views and experiences. Zhihu has become the largest online question and answer community in China.Sales BreakdownAdvertising and paid memberships account for the biggest portion of the company's revenues. Advertising accounted for 86.1% and 62.4% of total revenues in 2019 and 2020, respectively. We estimate advertising as a percentage of revenues to gradually decline in the next five years as it is offset by the faster growing Paid Memberships and Content Commerce Solutions. We estimate advertising as a percentage of sales to decline to 34.1% in 2021 and 22.3% in 2025.Paid Memberships represented 13.1% of total revenues in 2019, which increased to 23.7% of total revenues in 2020. We have assumed Paid Membership revenues as a percentage of total revenues to increase to 31.5% in 2021 and 37.8% in 2025.Content Commerce Solutions and Other sales also increased sharply in 2020. Content Commerce Solutions revenues jumped from 0.6 million RMB in 2019 to 135.8 million RMB in 2020. In early 2020, the company launched Content-Commerce solutions, which provide merchants and brands a one-stop shop for all of their sales and marketing needs, including marketing plans. We have assumed Content Commerce Solutions as a percentage of total revenue to jump from 10% in 2020 to 17.8% in 2021 and 32.3% in 2025.Gross MarginsThe company's gross margins improved from 46.6% in 2019 to 56.0% in 2020, driven by an overall improving business scalability. We have assumed further improvements in gross margins to 57.4% in 2021 and 62.3% in 2025.Total Operating Expenses and Operating MarginsTotal operating expenses as a percentage of revenues declined significantly from 204.4% in 2019 to 100.6% in 2020. We expect this ratio to improve further to 79% in 2021, 69.2% in 2022, and 57.2% in 2025. The bulk of the improvements in operating expenses is coming from lower SG&A and R&D expenses as a percentage of revenues in the next five years.Company BackgroundAt the end of 2020, Zhihu had more than 43.1 million cumulative content creators that contributed 315 million questions and answers. In 4Q 2020, the company had 75.7 million average monthly active users, up 33% YoY. One of the key strengths of the company is that it is recognized as one of the most trustworthy online content communities and regarded as providing one of the highest quality content in China. Zhihu has tried to capitalize on its large user base to provide numerous multimedia functions including live streaming, e-commerce, online education, and other video content.In August 2019, Zhihu received $434 million in funding from leading investors including Baidu and Kuaishou Technology, valuing the company at $3.5 billion. Given that the company had $97 million in sales in 2019, this would suggest a P/S valuation multiple of 36x. If we take the same P/S multiple apply to the company's 2020 sales of $207 million, this would suggest an implied valuation of $7.5 billion.Zhihu was originally developed as a question and answer online community in 2010. At the end of 2020, there were a total of 315 million Q&As spanning more than 1,000 verticals and 571,000 topics. Zhihu is one of the top five comprehensive online content communities in China, in terms of average mobile MAUs and revenue in 2020. The company uses artificial intelligence, cloud, and big data algorithms to improve the optimization of its content and services.Major Shareholders of ZhihuThe founder & CEO Zhou Yuanowns an 8.2% stake in the company (but 46.6% voting rights). Sinovation Ventures owns a 13.1% stake and Tencent Holdings Ltd. owns a 12.3% stake of Zhihu.Key DemographicsThe diagram below provides some of the key demographics of Zhihu user base. Males accounted for 56.9% of total users. People under 30 years old accounted for 78.7% of its total user base. Tier I and new tier I cities represented 52.6% of total user base. Many of the users of Zhihu are students and white collar professionals.Revenue BreakdownAdvertising and paid memberships account for the biggest portion of the company's revenues. Advertising accounted for 86.1% and 62.4% of total revenues in 2019 and 2020, respectively. The company's advertising revenue is mainly driven by its MAUs and advertising revenue per MAU. The company's MAUs increased by 42.7% YoY to 68.5 million in 2020. The company started its online advertising business in 2016 and introduced paid content in 2018.Paid memberships represented 13.1% of total revenues in 2019, which increased to 23.7% of total revenues in 2020. Average monthly members jumped by 311.5% YoY to 2.36 million in 2020, which is a testament of an increasing number of customers that value the premium content available on Zhihu.In March 2019, the company introduced the Yan Selection membership program, making it the first payment-based questions & answers community. It provides its members with unlimited access to about 3.4 million paid content including online lectures, columns, audio books, and e-journals. This is one of the biggest strengths of the company as it shows how high quality data and content can generate serious amount of revenues and it also provides a more steady monthly revenue inflow.Content Commerce Solutions and Other sales also increased sharply in 2020. Content Commerce Solutions revenues jumped from 0.6 million RMB in 2019 to 135.8 million RMB in 2020. In early 2020, the company launched Content-Commerce solutions, which provide merchants and brands a one-stop shop for all of their sales and marketing needs, including marketing plans, assigning the most relevant content creators to interested users, and facilitating content creation.China's content-commerce solution market is expected to be one of the fastest growing sectors in the next several years. According to CIC Consultancy, China's content-commerce solution market is expected to enjoy a strong CAGR growth of 46.4% from 2019 to 2025 (112.3 billion RMB).Market OpportunitiesChina’s Online Content Communities Market SizeOnline content communities refer to UGC (user generated content)-focused (including PUGC (professional user generated content) focused online content market players where content creators are also users, who are actively engaged within the communities. The content communities generally can stimulate higher level of user engagement, more interactive user experience, and enjoy lower content cost, compared to PGC (professionally generated content) players. PGC is content created by the branded company or organization.China's online content communities market size increased from 38.6 billion RMB in 2015 to 275.8 billion RMB in 2019 and is further expected to rise to 1.3 trillion RMB in 2025, representing a CAGR of 30.3% from 2019 to 2025, which is higher than the overall online content market growth.China's online content community market has more diversified monetization channels including online advertising, paid membership, content e-commerce, content-commerce solutions, virtual gifting in live streaming, online games, and online education services. In comparison, the US online content community's monetization is mainly through advertising.One of the major positives about the company is the growing trend of more Chinese consumers that are willing to pay money for higher quality content. The number of paying users in China’s online content communities is expected to increase at a CAGR of 17.1% between 2019 and 2025, which means an increase of 360.4 million extra paying users of online content communities to 588.2 million in 2025.China's Online Content MarketChina's online content market tripled from 2015 to reach 1.2 trillion RMB in 2019. This market is expected to increase to 3.7 trillion RMB in 2025, representing a CAGR of 21.4% from 2019 to 2025.China’s Online Content Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025EMarket Size of China’s Online Content Communities (in terms of revenue),2015-2025EChina’s Paid Membership Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025EContent-commerce solutionsTo provide integrated marketing services, the online content communities provide content-commerce solutions for content creation, content distribution, and content conversion. The company provides integrated content-commerce solutions, providing merchants and brands one-stop services for all their sales and marketing needs, from making marketing plans, facilitating content creation, assigning the most relevant content creators, to distributing to the interested users. China's content commerce solution market is expected to grow from 11.4 billion RMB in 2019 to 112.3 billion RMB in 2025, at a CAGR of 46.4%.China’s Content-Commerce Solution Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ZH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":460,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":322240172,"gmtCreate":1615813162596,"gmtModify":1703493378753,"author":{"id":"3576390362043433","authorId":"3576390362043433","name":"chelvi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6a8a4bf7a99f1ceb457affa9db3e865","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576390362043433","authorIdStr":"3576390362043433"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/322240172","repostId":"2119910806","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":647,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":155069615,"gmtCreate":1625364294337,"gmtModify":1631890738315,"author":{"id":"3576390362043433","authorId":"3576390362043433","name":"chelvi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6a8a4bf7a99f1ceb457affa9db3e865","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576390362043433","authorIdStr":"3576390362043433"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/155069615","repostId":"1188153141","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188153141","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625276221,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1188153141?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-03 09:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Suze Orman worries about a market crash — here's what you should do<blockquote>Suze Orman担心市场崩盘——以下是您应该做的</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188153141","media":"MoneyWise","summary":"As stock markets continue setting records, fallout from COVID-19 continues to create problems for th","content":"<p>As stock markets continue setting records, fallout from COVID-19 continues to create problems for the economy.</p><p><blockquote>随着股市继续创下纪录，新冠肺炎的影响继续给经济带来问题。</blockquote></p><p> That clash has worried investing experts, including Suze Orman, who's gone so far as to say she’s now preparing for an inevitable market crash.</p><p><blockquote>这场冲突让投资专家感到担忧，其中包括苏茜·欧曼(Suze Orman)，她甚至表示，她现在正在为不可避免的市场崩盘做准备。</blockquote></p><p> And a famous measurement popularized by Warren Buffett — known as the Buffett Indicator — shows Orman might be onto something.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特推广的一项著名指标——巴菲特指标——表明奥曼可能有所发现。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s an explanation of where the concern is coming from and some techniques you can use tokeep your investment portfolio growingeven if the market goes south.</p><p><blockquote>以下解释了这种担忧的来源，以及即使市场下跌，您也可以使用一些技巧来保持投资组合的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What does Suze Orman think?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苏西·奥曼是怎么想的？</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be8dc3ad363faad96bc575a22235562d\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Mediapunch/Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>Mediapunch/Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> Suze Orman has avidly watched the market for decades. She knows ups and downs are to be expected, but what she’s seeing happen with investment fads like GameStop has her concerned.</p><p><blockquote>几十年来，Suze Orman一直热切关注市场。她知道起起落落是意料之中的，但她所看到的像游戏驿站这样的投资时尚所发生的事情让她感到担忧。</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t like what I see happening in the market right now,” Orman said in a video for CNBC. “The economy has been horrible, but the stock market has been going.”</p><p><blockquote>“我不喜欢现在市场上发生的事情，”奥曼在CNBC的视频中表示。“经济一直很糟糕，但股市一直在上涨。”</blockquote></p><p> While investing is as easy now asusing a smartphone app, Orman is concerned about where we can go from these record highs.</p><p><blockquote>虽然现在投资就像使用智能手机应用程序一样容易，但奥曼担心我们能从这些历史高点走向何方。</blockquote></p><p> And even with stimulus checks, which are still going out, and the real estate market breaking its own records last year, Orman worries about what will come with the coronavirus — especially as new variants continue to pop up.</p><p><blockquote>即使刺激支票仍在发放，房地产市场去年也打破了自己的记录，奥曼仍担心冠状病毒会带来什么——特别是在新变种不断出现的情况下。</blockquote></p><p> What's more, she feels it’s just been too long since the last crash to stay this high much longer.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，她觉得距离上次崩盘已经太久了，不能再保持这么高的高度了。</blockquote></p><p> “This reminds me of 2000 all over again,” Orman says.</p><p><blockquote>“这让我又想起了2000年，”奥曼说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Buffett Indicator</b></p><p><blockquote><b>巴菲特指标</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44ada32ecadcc4581fed208f4f4e4d53\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Larry W Smith/EPA/Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>拉里·W·史密斯/EPA/Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> One metric Warren Buffett uses to assess the market so regularly that it’s been named after him has been flashing red for long enough that market watchers are starting to wonder if it’s an outdated tool.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特经常用来评估市场的一项指标，以他的名字命名，已经亮起红灯足够长的时间，以至于市场观察人士开始怀疑这是否是一个过时的工具。</blockquote></p><p> But the Buffett Indicator, a measurement of the ratio of the stock market’s total value against U.S. economic output, continues to climb to previously unseen levels.</p><p><blockquote>但衡量股市总价值与美国经济产出比率的巴菲特指标继续攀升至前所未有的水平。</blockquote></p><p> And those in the know are wondering if it's a sign that we’re about to see a hard fall.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士想知道这是否是我们即将看到严重下跌的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> How to prepare for a crash<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ad912a6b4611d9e39b46d2851c78c9e\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Freedomz / Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>如何为崩溃做好准备Freedomz/Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> Orman has three recommendations for setting up a simple investment strategy to help you successfully navigate any sharp turns in the market.</p><p><blockquote>Orman提出了三个建立简单投资策略的建议，以帮助您成功应对市场的任何急转弯。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Buy low</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.低吸</b></blockquote></p><p> Part of what upsets Orman so much about the furor over meme stocks like GameStop is it goes completely against the average investor’s interests.</p><p><blockquote>奥曼对游戏驿站等模因股票的狂热感到如此不安的部分原因是，它完全违背了普通投资者的利益。</blockquote></p><p> “All of you have your heads screwed on backwards,” she says. “All you want is for these markets to go up and up and up. What good is that going to do you?”</p><p><blockquote>“你们所有人的头都被拧到了后面，”她说。“你想要的只是这些市场不断上涨。这对你有什么好处？”</blockquote></p><p> She points out the only extra money most people have goes towardinvesting for retirementin their 401(k) or IRA plans.</p><p><blockquote>她指出，大多数人唯一的额外资金用于投资401(k)或IRA计划的退休生活。</blockquote></p><p> Because you probably don’t plan to touch that money for decades, the best long-term strategy is to buy low. That way, your dollar will go much further now, leaving plenty of room for growth over the next 20, 30 or 40 years.</p><p><blockquote>因为你可能几十年内都不打算碰这笔钱，所以最好的长期策略是低吸。这样，你的美元现在将走得更远，为未来20年、30年或40年留下足够的增长空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Invest on a schedule</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.按计划投资</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4102f8a6d5002090743b1cbded32ef9\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">katjen / Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>卡珍/Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> While she prefers to buy low, Orman doesn’t recommend you stop investing completely when the market goes up.</p><p><blockquote>虽然她更喜欢低价买入，但奥曼不建议你在市场上涨时完全停止投资。</blockquote></p><p> She wants casual investors to not get caught up in the daily ups and downs of the market.</p><p><blockquote>她希望普通投资者不要陷入市场每天的涨跌之中。</blockquote></p><p> In fact, cheering for downturns now may be your best bet at getting a larger piece of very profitable investments — like some lucky investors were able to do back in 2007 and 2008.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，现在为经济低迷欢呼可能是您获得更大份额利润丰厚的投资的最佳选择——就像一些幸运的投资者在2007年和2008年所做的那样。</blockquote></p><p> “When the market went down, down, down you could buy things at nothing,” says Orman. “And now look at them 15 years later.”</p><p><blockquote>“当市场下跌、下跌、下跌时，你可以免费购买东西，”奥曼说。“现在看看15年后的它们。”</blockquote></p><p> She suggests you set up a dollar-cost averaging strategy, which means you invest your money in equal portions at regular intervals, regardless of the market’s fluctuations.</p><p><blockquote>她建议你建立一个平均成本策略，这意味着无论市场波动如何，你都要定期等量投资。</blockquote></p><p> This kind of approach is easy to implement with any of the many investing apps currently available to DIY investors.</p><p><blockquote>这种方法很容易用目前可供DIY投资者使用的许多投资应用程序中的任何一个来实施。</blockquote></p><p> There are even apps that willautomatically invest your spare changeby rounding up your debit and credit card purchases to the nearest dollar.</p><p><blockquote>甚至有些应用程序会通过将您的借记卡和信用卡购买的金额四舍五入到最接近的美元来自动投资您的零钱。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Diversify with fractional shares</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.通过零碎股份实现多元化</b></blockquote></p><p> To help weather dips in specific corners of the market, Orman suggests you diversify your investments — balance your portfolio with investments in many different types of assets and sectors of the economy.</p><p><blockquote>为了帮助应对市场特定角落的下跌，奥曼建议您分散投资——通过投资多种不同类型的资产和经济部门来平衡您的投资组合。</blockquote></p><p> Orman particularly recommends fractional-share investing. This approach allows you to buy a slice of a share for a big-name company that you otherwise wouldn’t be able to afford.</p><p><blockquote>奥曼特别推荐零股投资。这种方法允许你购买一家知名公司的一部分股份，否则你将买不起。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> With the help of apopular stock-trading tool, anyone at any budget can afford the fractional share strategy.</p><p><blockquote>在流行的股票交易工具的帮助下，任何预算的人都可以负担得起碎股策略。</blockquote></p><p> “The sooner you begin, the more money you will have,” says Orman. “Just don’t stop, and when these markets go down, you should be so happy because your dollars find more shares.”</p><p><blockquote>“你越早开始，你拥有的钱就越多，”奥曼说。“只是不要停下来，当这些市场下跌时，你应该很高兴，因为你的美元找到了更多的份额。”</blockquote></p><p> “And the more shares you have, the more money you’ll have 20, 40, 50 years from now.”</p><p><blockquote>“你拥有的股票越多，20年、40年、50年后你拥有的钱就越多。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>What else you can do</b></p><p><blockquote><b>你还能做什么</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e79c6fd1f8fa6e3a7c3a6c94f1e14b5\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">goodluz / Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>古德卢兹/Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> Whether or not a big crash is around the corner, investors who are still decades out from retirement can make that work for them, Orman said in theCNBC video.</p><p><blockquote>奥曼在CNBC视频中表示，无论大崩盘是否即将来临，距离退休还有几十年的投资者都可以利用这一点。</blockquote></p><p> First, prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Since the onset of the pandemic, Orman now recommends everyone have an emergency fund that can cover their expenses for a full year.</p><p><blockquote>第一，做最坏的打算，抱最好的希望。自从疫情爆发以来，奥曼现在建议每个人都有一个应急基金，可以支付他们一整年的费用。</blockquote></p><p> Then, to set yourself up fora comfortable retirement, she suggests you opt for a Roth account, whether that’s a 401(k) or IRA.</p><p><blockquote>然后，为了让自己过上舒适的退休生活，她建议您选择Roth账户，无论是401(k)还是IRA。</blockquote></p><p> That will help you avoid paying tax when you take money out of your retirement account because your contributions to a Roth account are made after tax. Traditional IRAs, on the other hand, aren’t taxed when you make contributions, so you’ll end up paying later.</p><p><blockquote>这将帮助您在从退休账户中提取资金时避免纳税，因为您对罗斯账户的供款是税后进行的。另一方面，传统IRA在您缴款时无需纳税，因此您最终会稍后付款。</blockquote></p><p> If you find you need a little more guidance, working with aprofessional financial adviser, can help point you in the right direction so you can confidently ride out any market volatility.</p><p><blockquote>如果您发现需要更多指导，与专业财务顾问合作可以帮助您指出正确的方向，以便您可以自信地度过任何市场波动。</blockquote></p><p> While everyone else is veering off course or overcorrecting, you’ll be firmly in the driver’s seat with your sunset years planned for.</p><p><blockquote>当其他人都在偏离路线或矫枉过正时，你将牢牢地坐在驾驶座上，计划好你的晚年。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1621813427262","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Suze Orman worries about a market crash — here's what you should do<blockquote>Suze Orman担心市场崩盘——以下是您应该做的</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSuze Orman worries about a market crash — here's what you should do<blockquote>Suze Orman担心市场崩盘——以下是您应该做的</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MoneyWise</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-03 09:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>As stock markets continue setting records, fallout from COVID-19 continues to create problems for the economy.</p><p><blockquote>随着股市继续创下纪录，新冠肺炎的影响继续给经济带来问题。</blockquote></p><p> That clash has worried investing experts, including Suze Orman, who's gone so far as to say she’s now preparing for an inevitable market crash.</p><p><blockquote>这场冲突让投资专家感到担忧，其中包括苏茜·欧曼(Suze Orman)，她甚至表示，她现在正在为不可避免的市场崩盘做准备。</blockquote></p><p> And a famous measurement popularized by Warren Buffett — known as the Buffett Indicator — shows Orman might be onto something.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特推广的一项著名指标——巴菲特指标——表明奥曼可能有所发现。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s an explanation of where the concern is coming from and some techniques you can use tokeep your investment portfolio growingeven if the market goes south.</p><p><blockquote>以下解释了这种担忧的来源，以及即使市场下跌，您也可以使用一些技巧来保持投资组合的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What does Suze Orman think?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苏西·奥曼是怎么想的？</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be8dc3ad363faad96bc575a22235562d\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Mediapunch/Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>Mediapunch/Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> Suze Orman has avidly watched the market for decades. She knows ups and downs are to be expected, but what she’s seeing happen with investment fads like GameStop has her concerned.</p><p><blockquote>几十年来，Suze Orman一直热切关注市场。她知道起起落落是意料之中的，但她所看到的像游戏驿站这样的投资时尚所发生的事情让她感到担忧。</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t like what I see happening in the market right now,” Orman said in a video for CNBC. “The economy has been horrible, but the stock market has been going.”</p><p><blockquote>“我不喜欢现在市场上发生的事情，”奥曼在CNBC的视频中表示。“经济一直很糟糕，但股市一直在上涨。”</blockquote></p><p> While investing is as easy now asusing a smartphone app, Orman is concerned about where we can go from these record highs.</p><p><blockquote>虽然现在投资就像使用智能手机应用程序一样容易，但奥曼担心我们能从这些历史高点走向何方。</blockquote></p><p> And even with stimulus checks, which are still going out, and the real estate market breaking its own records last year, Orman worries about what will come with the coronavirus — especially as new variants continue to pop up.</p><p><blockquote>即使刺激支票仍在发放，房地产市场去年也打破了自己的记录，奥曼仍担心冠状病毒会带来什么——特别是在新变种不断出现的情况下。</blockquote></p><p> What's more, she feels it’s just been too long since the last crash to stay this high much longer.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，她觉得距离上次崩盘已经太久了，不能再保持这么高的高度了。</blockquote></p><p> “This reminds me of 2000 all over again,” Orman says.</p><p><blockquote>“这让我又想起了2000年，”奥曼说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Buffett Indicator</b></p><p><blockquote><b>巴菲特指标</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44ada32ecadcc4581fed208f4f4e4d53\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Larry W Smith/EPA/Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>拉里·W·史密斯/EPA/Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> One metric Warren Buffett uses to assess the market so regularly that it’s been named after him has been flashing red for long enough that market watchers are starting to wonder if it’s an outdated tool.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特经常用来评估市场的一项指标，以他的名字命名，已经亮起红灯足够长的时间，以至于市场观察人士开始怀疑这是否是一个过时的工具。</blockquote></p><p> But the Buffett Indicator, a measurement of the ratio of the stock market’s total value against U.S. economic output, continues to climb to previously unseen levels.</p><p><blockquote>但衡量股市总价值与美国经济产出比率的巴菲特指标继续攀升至前所未有的水平。</blockquote></p><p> And those in the know are wondering if it's a sign that we’re about to see a hard fall.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士想知道这是否是我们即将看到严重下跌的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> How to prepare for a crash<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ad912a6b4611d9e39b46d2851c78c9e\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Freedomz / Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>如何为崩溃做好准备Freedomz/Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> Orman has three recommendations for setting up a simple investment strategy to help you successfully navigate any sharp turns in the market.</p><p><blockquote>Orman提出了三个建立简单投资策略的建议，以帮助您成功应对市场的任何急转弯。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Buy low</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.低吸</b></blockquote></p><p> Part of what upsets Orman so much about the furor over meme stocks like GameStop is it goes completely against the average investor’s interests.</p><p><blockquote>奥曼对游戏驿站等模因股票的狂热感到如此不安的部分原因是，它完全违背了普通投资者的利益。</blockquote></p><p> “All of you have your heads screwed on backwards,” she says. “All you want is for these markets to go up and up and up. What good is that going to do you?”</p><p><blockquote>“你们所有人的头都被拧到了后面，”她说。“你想要的只是这些市场不断上涨。这对你有什么好处？”</blockquote></p><p> She points out the only extra money most people have goes towardinvesting for retirementin their 401(k) or IRA plans.</p><p><blockquote>她指出，大多数人唯一的额外资金用于投资401(k)或IRA计划的退休生活。</blockquote></p><p> Because you probably don’t plan to touch that money for decades, the best long-term strategy is to buy low. That way, your dollar will go much further now, leaving plenty of room for growth over the next 20, 30 or 40 years.</p><p><blockquote>因为你可能几十年内都不打算碰这笔钱，所以最好的长期策略是低吸。这样，你的美元现在将走得更远，为未来20年、30年或40年留下足够的增长空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Invest on a schedule</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.按计划投资</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4102f8a6d5002090743b1cbded32ef9\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">katjen / Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>卡珍/Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> While she prefers to buy low, Orman doesn’t recommend you stop investing completely when the market goes up.</p><p><blockquote>虽然她更喜欢低价买入，但奥曼不建议你在市场上涨时完全停止投资。</blockquote></p><p> She wants casual investors to not get caught up in the daily ups and downs of the market.</p><p><blockquote>她希望普通投资者不要陷入市场每天的涨跌之中。</blockquote></p><p> In fact, cheering for downturns now may be your best bet at getting a larger piece of very profitable investments — like some lucky investors were able to do back in 2007 and 2008.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，现在为经济低迷欢呼可能是您获得更大份额利润丰厚的投资的最佳选择——就像一些幸运的投资者在2007年和2008年所做的那样。</blockquote></p><p> “When the market went down, down, down you could buy things at nothing,” says Orman. “And now look at them 15 years later.”</p><p><blockquote>“当市场下跌、下跌、下跌时，你可以免费购买东西，”奥曼说。“现在看看15年后的它们。”</blockquote></p><p> She suggests you set up a dollar-cost averaging strategy, which means you invest your money in equal portions at regular intervals, regardless of the market’s fluctuations.</p><p><blockquote>她建议你建立一个平均成本策略，这意味着无论市场波动如何，你都要定期等量投资。</blockquote></p><p> This kind of approach is easy to implement with any of the many investing apps currently available to DIY investors.</p><p><blockquote>这种方法很容易用目前可供DIY投资者使用的许多投资应用程序中的任何一个来实施。</blockquote></p><p> There are even apps that willautomatically invest your spare changeby rounding up your debit and credit card purchases to the nearest dollar.</p><p><blockquote>甚至有些应用程序会通过将您的借记卡和信用卡购买的金额四舍五入到最接近的美元来自动投资您的零钱。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Diversify with fractional shares</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.通过零碎股份实现多元化</b></blockquote></p><p> To help weather dips in specific corners of the market, Orman suggests you diversify your investments — balance your portfolio with investments in many different types of assets and sectors of the economy.</p><p><blockquote>为了帮助应对市场特定角落的下跌，奥曼建议您分散投资——通过投资多种不同类型的资产和经济部门来平衡您的投资组合。</blockquote></p><p> Orman particularly recommends fractional-share investing. This approach allows you to buy a slice of a share for a big-name company that you otherwise wouldn’t be able to afford.</p><p><blockquote>奥曼特别推荐零股投资。这种方法允许你购买一家知名公司的一部分股份，否则你将买不起。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> With the help of apopular stock-trading tool, anyone at any budget can afford the fractional share strategy.</p><p><blockquote>在流行的股票交易工具的帮助下，任何预算的人都可以负担得起碎股策略。</blockquote></p><p> “The sooner you begin, the more money you will have,” says Orman. “Just don’t stop, and when these markets go down, you should be so happy because your dollars find more shares.”</p><p><blockquote>“你越早开始，你拥有的钱就越多，”奥曼说。“只是不要停下来，当这些市场下跌时，你应该很高兴，因为你的美元找到了更多的份额。”</blockquote></p><p> “And the more shares you have, the more money you’ll have 20, 40, 50 years from now.”</p><p><blockquote>“你拥有的股票越多，20年、40年、50年后你拥有的钱就越多。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>What else you can do</b></p><p><blockquote><b>你还能做什么</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e79c6fd1f8fa6e3a7c3a6c94f1e14b5\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">goodluz / Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>古德卢兹/Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> Whether or not a big crash is around the corner, investors who are still decades out from retirement can make that work for them, Orman said in theCNBC video.</p><p><blockquote>奥曼在CNBC视频中表示，无论大崩盘是否即将来临，距离退休还有几十年的投资者都可以利用这一点。</blockquote></p><p> First, prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Since the onset of the pandemic, Orman now recommends everyone have an emergency fund that can cover their expenses for a full year.</p><p><blockquote>第一，做最坏的打算，抱最好的希望。自从疫情爆发以来，奥曼现在建议每个人都有一个应急基金，可以支付他们一整年的费用。</blockquote></p><p> Then, to set yourself up fora comfortable retirement, she suggests you opt for a Roth account, whether that’s a 401(k) or IRA.</p><p><blockquote>然后，为了让自己过上舒适的退休生活，她建议您选择Roth账户，无论是401(k)还是IRA。</blockquote></p><p> That will help you avoid paying tax when you take money out of your retirement account because your contributions to a Roth account are made after tax. Traditional IRAs, on the other hand, aren’t taxed when you make contributions, so you’ll end up paying later.</p><p><blockquote>这将帮助您在从退休账户中提取资金时避免纳税，因为您对罗斯账户的供款是税后进行的。另一方面，传统IRA在您缴款时无需纳税，因此您最终会稍后付款。</blockquote></p><p> If you find you need a little more guidance, working with aprofessional financial adviser, can help point you in the right direction so you can confidently ride out any market volatility.</p><p><blockquote>如果您发现需要更多指导，与专业财务顾问合作可以帮助您指出正确的方向，以便您可以自信地度过任何市场波动。</blockquote></p><p> While everyone else is veering off course or overcorrecting, you’ll be firmly in the driver’s seat with your sunset years planned for.</p><p><blockquote>当其他人都在偏离路线或矫枉过正时，你将牢牢地坐在驾驶座上，计划好你的晚年。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/suze-orman-worries-market-crash-220000108.html\">MoneyWise</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/suze-orman-worries-market-crash-220000108.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188153141","content_text":"As stock markets continue setting records, fallout from COVID-19 continues to create problems for the economy.\nThat clash has worried investing experts, including Suze Orman, who's gone so far as to say she’s now preparing for an inevitable market crash.\nAnd a famous measurement popularized by Warren Buffett — known as the Buffett Indicator — shows Orman might be onto something.\nHere’s an explanation of where the concern is coming from and some techniques you can use tokeep your investment portfolio growingeven if the market goes south.\nWhat does Suze Orman think?\nMediapunch/Shutterstock\nSuze Orman has avidly watched the market for decades. She knows ups and downs are to be expected, but what she’s seeing happen with investment fads like GameStop has her concerned.\n“I don’t like what I see happening in the market right now,” Orman said in a video for CNBC. “The economy has been horrible, but the stock market has been going.”\nWhile investing is as easy now asusing a smartphone app, Orman is concerned about where we can go from these record highs.\nAnd even with stimulus checks, which are still going out, and the real estate market breaking its own records last year, Orman worries about what will come with the coronavirus — especially as new variants continue to pop up.\nWhat's more, she feels it’s just been too long since the last crash to stay this high much longer.\n“This reminds me of 2000 all over again,” Orman says.\nThe Buffett Indicator\nLarry W Smith/EPA/Shutterstock\nOne metric Warren Buffett uses to assess the market so regularly that it’s been named after him has been flashing red for long enough that market watchers are starting to wonder if it’s an outdated tool.\nBut the Buffett Indicator, a measurement of the ratio of the stock market’s total value against U.S. economic output, continues to climb to previously unseen levels.\nAnd those in the know are wondering if it's a sign that we’re about to see a hard fall.\nHow to prepare for a crashFreedomz / Shutterstock\nOrman has three recommendations for setting up a simple investment strategy to help you successfully navigate any sharp turns in the market.\n1. Buy low\nPart of what upsets Orman so much about the furor over meme stocks like GameStop is it goes completely against the average investor’s interests.\n“All of you have your heads screwed on backwards,” she says. “All you want is for these markets to go up and up and up. What good is that going to do you?”\nShe points out the only extra money most people have goes towardinvesting for retirementin their 401(k) or IRA plans.\nBecause you probably don’t plan to touch that money for decades, the best long-term strategy is to buy low. That way, your dollar will go much further now, leaving plenty of room for growth over the next 20, 30 or 40 years.\n2. Invest on a schedule\nkatjen / Shutterstock\nWhile she prefers to buy low, Orman doesn’t recommend you stop investing completely when the market goes up.\nShe wants casual investors to not get caught up in the daily ups and downs of the market.\nIn fact, cheering for downturns now may be your best bet at getting a larger piece of very profitable investments — like some lucky investors were able to do back in 2007 and 2008.\n“When the market went down, down, down you could buy things at nothing,” says Orman. “And now look at them 15 years later.”\nShe suggests you set up a dollar-cost averaging strategy, which means you invest your money in equal portions at regular intervals, regardless of the market’s fluctuations.\nThis kind of approach is easy to implement with any of the many investing apps currently available to DIY investors.\nThere are even apps that willautomatically invest your spare changeby rounding up your debit and credit card purchases to the nearest dollar.\n3. Diversify with fractional shares\nTo help weather dips in specific corners of the market, Orman suggests you diversify your investments — balance your portfolio with investments in many different types of assets and sectors of the economy.\nOrman particularly recommends fractional-share investing. This approach allows you to buy a slice of a share for a big-name company that you otherwise wouldn’t be able to afford.\nWith the help of apopular stock-trading tool, anyone at any budget can afford the fractional share strategy.\n“The sooner you begin, the more money you will have,” says Orman. “Just don’t stop, and when these markets go down, you should be so happy because your dollars find more shares.”\n“And the more shares you have, the more money you’ll have 20, 40, 50 years from now.”\nWhat else you can do\ngoodluz / Shutterstock\nWhether or not a big crash is around the corner, investors who are still decades out from retirement can make that work for them, Orman said in theCNBC video.\nFirst, prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Since the onset of the pandemic, Orman now recommends everyone have an emergency fund that can cover their expenses for a full year.\nThen, to set yourself up fora comfortable retirement, she suggests you opt for a Roth account, whether that’s a 401(k) or IRA.\nThat will help you avoid paying tax when you take money out of your retirement account because your contributions to a Roth account are made after tax. Traditional IRAs, on the other hand, aren’t taxed when you make contributions, so you’ll end up paying later.\nIf you find you need a little more guidance, working with aprofessional financial adviser, can help point you in the right direction so you can confidently ride out any market volatility.\nWhile everyone else is veering off course or overcorrecting, you’ll be firmly in the driver’s seat with your sunset years planned for.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":460,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168892166,"gmtCreate":1623970201055,"gmtModify":1634025178220,"author":{"id":"3576390362043433","authorId":"3576390362043433","name":"chelvi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6a8a4bf7a99f1ceb457affa9db3e865","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576390362043433","authorIdStr":"3576390362043433"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and share&nbsp;","listText":"Like and share&nbsp;","text":"Like and share","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168892166","repostId":"2144156742","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":452,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187883837,"gmtCreate":1623749217629,"gmtModify":1634029132691,"author":{"id":"3576390362043433","authorId":"3576390362043433","name":"chelvi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6a8a4bf7a99f1ceb457affa9db3e865","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576390362043433","authorIdStr":"3576390362043433"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187883837","repostId":"1163671123","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":526,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":354498508,"gmtCreate":1617194285204,"gmtModify":1634522158495,"author":{"id":"3576390362043433","authorId":"3576390362043433","name":"chelvi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6a8a4bf7a99f1ceb457affa9db3e865","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576390362043433","authorIdStr":"3576390362043433"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment&nbsp;","listText":"Like and comment&nbsp;","text":"Like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/354498508","repostId":"2123240433","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":314,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":354498863,"gmtCreate":1617194265952,"gmtModify":1634522158854,"author":{"id":"3576390362043433","authorId":"3576390362043433","name":"chelvi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6a8a4bf7a99f1ceb457affa9db3e865","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576390362043433","authorIdStr":"3576390362043433"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment&nbsp;","listText":"Like and comment&nbsp;","text":"Like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/354498863","repostId":"1196818239","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":367,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":155087997,"gmtCreate":1625364217819,"gmtModify":1631892933282,"author":{"id":"3576390362043433","authorId":"3576390362043433","name":"chelvi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6a8a4bf7a99f1ceb457affa9db3e865","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576390362043433","authorIdStr":"3576390362043433"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and share&nbsp;","listText":"Like and share&nbsp;","text":"Like and share","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/155087997","repostId":"1192425829","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1192425829","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625362308,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1192425829?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-04 09:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Second-Half 2021: Market Forecasts, Thoughts and Observations<blockquote>2021年下半年：市场预测、思考与观察</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1192425829","media":"The Street","summary":"The stock market has given us some incredible returns in the past year or two but there are some war","content":"<p>  The stock market has given us some incredible returns in the past year or two but there are some warning signs developing -- and one key date to keep an eye on.  The stock market, commodity markets and fixed-income markets have been on some wild rides the past 18 months. We penned 2021 forecast pieces back in January (read<b>here</b>and<b>here</b>), but a fresh look at things for the balance of the year seems like a good idea with commodity plays on the rise, oil prices coming on strong while other areas of the market are cooling.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的一两年里，股市给我们带来了一些令人难以置信的回报，但也出现了一些警告信号，还有一个需要关注的关键日期。过去18个月里，股市、大宗商品市场和固定收益市场经历了一些疯狂的波动。我们早在1月份就撰写了2021年预测文章（阅读<b>在这里</b>和<b>在这里</b>），但随着大宗商品市场的上涨，油价走强，而市场其他领域正在降温，重新审视今年剩余时间的情况似乎是个好主意。</blockquote></p><p> Let's start our analysis with some monthly candlestick charts.</p><p><blockquote>让我们从一些月度烛台图开始我们的分析。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Candlestick AnalysisDow Jones Industrials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>烛台分析道琼斯工业指数</b></blockquote></p><p> In this monthly Japanese candlestick chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), below, we can see that prices have made a huge rise over the past decade and a very sharp advance since March of 2020. Taking a little liberty in our methodology we can see an 8 to 10 record high advance since the 2020 pandemic low. Notice the slowing pace of the 12-month price momentum study in the lower panel.</p><p><blockquote>在下面道琼斯工业平均指数（道琼斯）的月度日本烛台图中，我们可以看到价格在过去十年中大幅上涨，自2020年3月以来涨幅非常大。在我们的方法上稍微自由一点，我们可以看到自2020年疫情低点以来，有8到10个历史新高的进展。请注意下图中12个月价格动量研究的步伐放缓。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c0c65a961cdf2a9b6bdba9757ca8c5d\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>S&amp;P 500</b></p><p><blockquote><b>标普500</b></blockquote></p><p> In this monthly Japanese candlestick chart of the S&amp;P 500 Index (SPX) below, we can see another big advance over the past 10 years. The index made a sideways consolidation pattern in 2015-2016 around 2,000 to 2,200 and we have for most part doubled from there. I would not be surprised to see some significant profit-taking as the SPX approached 4,400. Momentum has been slowing here too.</p><p><blockquote>在下面的标普500指数（SPX）月度日本烛台图中，我们可以看到过去10年的另一次大幅上涨。该指数在2015-2016年在2,000点至2,200点附近形成了横向盘整模式，我们在很大程度上从那里翻了一番。当SPX接近4,400点时，看到一些重大获利了结，我不会感到惊讶。这里的势头也在放缓。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72a594dc06dc6364a1f4432334018a95\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Nasdaq</b></p><p><blockquote><b>纳斯达克</b></blockquote></p><p> In this monthly Japanese candlestick chart of the Nasdaq, below, we can see that prices have doubled from their consolidation pattern in 2018 and 2019 in the 7,000 area. Prices have nearly tripled from their consolidation around 5,000 in 2015-2016. Yes, the momentum study is slowing.</p><p><blockquote>在下面的纳斯达克月度日本烛台图中，我们可以看到价格比2018年和2019年在7,000点区域的盘整模式翻了一番。价格较2015-2016年5,000点左右的盘整上涨了近两倍。是的，动量研究正在放缓。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a32c8a3b8cbd6d84dc3c316188d0714c\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Russell 2000</b></p><p><blockquote><b>罗素2000</b></blockquote></p><p> In this monthly candlestick chart of the Russell 2000 index (RUT) we can see that prices have more than doubled from their March 2020 low. This could take your breath away. With the string of white candles and weakening momentum we want to be more cautious as we move forward in the third quarter.</p><p><blockquote>在这张罗素2000指数(RUT)的月度烛台图中，我们可以看到价格较2020年3月的低点上涨了一倍多。这会让你大吃一惊。随着一串白色蜡烛和势头减弱，我们希望在第三季度前进时更加谨慎。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00e2eb68915aa7fe3a35df2b5cca4c7c\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">All these charts (above) show the 8 to 10 record high pattern so we should be on our guard for a top reversal pattern.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些图表（上图）都显示了8到10个创纪录的高点模式，因此我们应该警惕顶部反转模式。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Advance-Decline Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>进退分析</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, let's turn our attention to the Advance-Decline line.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们把注意力转向涨跌线。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Dow Jones Industrials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>道琼斯工业指数</b></blockquote></p><p> In this daily candlestick chart of the DJIA, below, we show the Advance-Decline line which has been moving sideways since early May. This difference between the price action is a bearish divergence but the DJIA is a narrow average with only 30 stocks.</p><p><blockquote>在下面的道琼斯日线烛台图中，我们显示了自五月初以来一直横向移动的上涨-下跌线。价格走势之间的差异是看跌背离，但道琼斯是一个狭窄的平均值，只有30只股票。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5af49f53b61d7234c47302a43ef8fc54\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"622\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>S&amp;P 500</b></p><p><blockquote><b>标普500</b></blockquote></p><p> In this chart of the S&amp;P 500 and its Advance-Decline line, below, we can see that prices and the Advance-Decline line are pointed up so a bearish divergence has not started.</p><p><blockquote>在下面这张标普500及其上涨-下跌线的图表中，我们可以看到价格和上涨-下跌线向上，因此看跌背离尚未开始。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f76b13060f5ac582155923264b7fb2f\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"622\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Nasdaq</b></p><p><blockquote><b>纳斯达克</b></blockquote></p><p> In this chart of the Nasdaq, below, we can see a significant bearish divergence. The Nasdaq has been making new highs but the Advance-Decline line has been moving sideways to lower from February.</p><p><blockquote>在下面的纳斯达克图表中，我们可以看到显着的看跌背离。纳斯达克一直在创出新高，但涨跌幅线自二月份以来一直横向走低。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c202ca833085d8ae21f804e01da1d20e\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"622\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Nasdaq 100</b></p><p><blockquote><b>纳斯达克100</b></blockquote></p><p> In this chart of Nasdaq 100 and its Advance-Decline line, below, we see prices and the indicator going up together. No bearish divergence here.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02f49df814666506de6bd3a8f8cff358\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"622\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Sectors</b></p><p><blockquote>在下面这张纳斯达克100指数及其涨跌幅线的图表中，我们看到价格和指标一起上涨。这里没有看跌背离。<b>部门</b></blockquote></p><p> The marketplace can be broken down into 11 sectors but I want to cover just part of the list today.<b>Energy</b>In this weekly candlestick chart of the (XLE) , the S&amp;P Energy sector ETF, below, we can see that prices have doubled from their pandemic low. Trading volume has been very heavy and the weekly On-Balance-Volume has been stalled the past four months. The 12-week price momentum study has been weakening for a bearish divergence.</p><p><blockquote>市场可以分为11个部分，但我今天只想介绍其中的一部分。<b>能源</b>在下面的标准普尔能源行业ETF(XLE)的周线烛台图中，我们可以看到价格较大流行低点翻了一番。过去四个月，交易量非常大，每周余额交易量停滞不前。12周价格动量研究因看跌背离而减弱。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6c7c0cb796bbdd57de9aba933c615ce\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Two energy names that could rally further in the third quarter are EOG Resources (EOG) and ConocoPhillips (COP) . Here are the charts.</p><p><blockquote>第三季度可能进一步上涨的两家能源公司是EOG Resources(EOG)和康菲石油公司(COP)。这是图表。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d2fc7721f85cac4b418a821156c714f\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/874820e1c1c54a567c399f5129e88676\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc072387bc975d38d92af5b6b3de16ac\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d2822d20c835ce4f4860d5eb45212cb\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Financials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务</b></blockquote></p><p> In this daily bar chart of the (XLF) ,&nbsp; the Financial sector ETF, below, we can see that prices have begun a topping phase. Prices have broken below the cresting 50-day moving average line. The On-Balance-Volume line has weakened from early June and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillator has fallen below the zero line for an outright sell signal.</p><p><blockquote>在下面金融板块ETF(XLF)的日线条形图中，我们可以看到价格已经开始见顶阶段。价格已跌破50日移动平均线。自6月初以来，平衡成交量线已走弱，移动平均线收敛背离(MACD)振荡器已跌破零线，发出直接卖出信号。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bddfbb55fad602b4a29ff4ef1ba47e0f\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Technology</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术</b></blockquote></p><p> In this weekly Japanese candlestick chart of the (XLK) , the Technology sector ETF, below, we can see that prices have more than doubled from their pandemic low. The trading volume has diminished since March 2020 and the weekly On-Balance-Volume line has been stuck in a sideways trend for the past 12 months. The 12-week price momentum study in the bottom panel shows lower highs being made the past year. This is a significant bearish divergence.</p><p><blockquote>在下面的科技行业ETF(XLK)的每周日本烛台图中，我们可以看到价格较大流行低点上涨了一倍多。自2020年3月以来，交易量一直在减少，每周平衡交易量线在过去12个月中一直处于横盘趋势。底部面板中的12周价格动量研究显示，过去一年的高点较低。这是一个显着的看跌背离。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9d9a652c4c72b421556bfbd90dd8d44\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Industrials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>工业</b></blockquote></p><p> In this daily bar chart of the (XLI) &nbsp;, the Industrial sector ETF, below, we can see a weakening picture. Prices have slipped below the cresting 50-day moving average line. The On-Balance-Volume line has weakened the past two months and the MACD oscillator is below the zero line in sell territory.</p><p><blockquote>在下面工业板块ETF(XLI)的日线条形图中，我们可以看到疲软的情况。价格已跌破50日移动平均线。在过去的两个月里，平衡成交量线已经走弱，MACD振荡指标低于卖出区域的零线。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47838029e80d6b87a83abb9f1352bdaf\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Bonds</b></p><p><blockquote><b>债券</b></blockquote></p><p> In this daily Point and Figure chart of the (TLT) , the iShares 20+ year Treasury Bond ETF, below, we can see a potential upside price target in the $165 area.</p><p><blockquote>在下面的iShares 20+年期国债ETF(TLT)的每日点数图中，我们可以看到165美元区域的潜在上行目标价。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/587f7bae63415985c849540d27b7ffaa\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"992\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>U.S. Dollar</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美元</b></blockquote></p><p> In this daily Japanese candlestick chart of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) we can see that prices have stopped short of a test of its late March/early April highs. DXY could make a slow drift downward to retest its May lows.</p><p><blockquote>在美元指数（DXY）的每日日本烛台图中，我们可以看到价格已经停止测试3月底/4月初的高点。DXY可能会缓慢向下漂移，重新测试5月份的低点。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c086d11fb1d31f2710dc3752d158a2e7\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Mark Your Calendars</b></p><p><blockquote><b>标记您的日历</b></blockquote></p><p> A technical service that I have been using since the mid-1990s (www.pfr.com) is anticipating a large-scale \"trend change\" on or about Aug. 2 and this bears watching. This could mark the start of perhaps a 10% correction in the major averages. The next trend change is anticipated for late October, which could be the start of a year-end rally. We want to pay closer attention to the advance-decline numbers and price action as we approach Aug. 2.</p><p><blockquote>我自20世纪90年代中期以来一直使用的一项技术服务(www.pfr.com)预计8月2日左右将出现大规模“趋势变化”，这值得关注。这可能标志着主要平均指数可能出现10%的回调。下一次趋势变化预计将在10月下旬，这可能是年底反弹的开始。随着8月2日的临近，我们希望密切关注涨跌数据和价格走势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sentiment</b></p><p><blockquote><b>情绪</b></blockquote></p><p> No discussion about the stock market would be complete without some discussion of sentiment. There are plenty of \"signs\" of the stock market being out over its skis.</p><p><blockquote>如果不讨论情绪，任何关于股市的讨论都是不完整的。有很多“迹象”表明股市正在下滑。</blockquote></p><p> I see a number of market letters and commentary from fellow technical analysts and they are all bullish. I get emails from Real Money subscribers asking about this stock or that stock and I have two observations:</p><p><blockquote>我看到了许多来自其他技术分析师的市场信件和评论，他们都是看涨的。我收到来自Real Money订阅者的电子邮件，询问这只股票或那只股票，我有两个观察结果：</blockquote></p><p> 1. The names they are asking about seem to be more speculative in nature. I cannot remember the last time someone emailed me about a boring utility stock.</p><p><blockquote>1.他们询问的名字似乎更具投机性质。我不记得上次有人给我发电子邮件询问无聊的公用事业股票是什么时候了。</blockquote></p><p> 2. The second thing that has struck me about the emails is the failure to recognize risk. Everyone wants to know the next highest price target but they never ask about where to move a stop up.</p><p><blockquote>2.电子邮件给我留下深刻印象的第二件事是没有认识到风险。每个人都想知道下一个最高价格目标，但他们从不问在哪里移动止损。</blockquote></p><p> Sentiment is not a precise indicator and much of it is anecdotal in nature and hard to quantify. The anticipated Robinhood IPO could mark a turning point.</p><p><blockquote>情绪不是一个精确的指标，其中大部分本质上是轶事，很难量化。预期的Robinhood IPO可能标志着一个转折点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bottom-Line Strategy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线策略</b></blockquote></p><p> The stock market has given us some incredible returns in the past year or two but there are some warning signs developing and traders need to start leaning in the other direction.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的一两年里，股市给了我们一些令人难以置信的回报，但也出现了一些警告信号，交易者需要开始向另一个方向倾斜。</blockquote></p><p> Consider adding to commodity plays as they could be the outperformers of the third quarter.</p><p><blockquote>考虑增加大宗商品投资，因为它们可能是第三季度表现出色的股票。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Consider becoming a scale-up profit taker. Continue to raise your stop protection to lock in more gains. Pay closer attention to where in the range prices are closing. Highs are typically made when prices close near the high of the day.Is the On-Balance-Volume line weakening as volume increases on days when the market or your favorite stock declines?</p><p><blockquote>考虑成为规模扩大的获利者。继续提高止损保护，锁定更多收益。密切关注价格收盘区间。高点通常是在价格接近当天高点时形成的。当市场或您最喜欢的股票下跌时，平衡成交量线是否会随着成交量增加而减弱？</blockquote></p><p> Pay closer attention to the news and watch for stocks and the market to decline on bullish news -- this tells us that the news has been discounted.</p><p><blockquote>密切关注新闻，观察股票和市场因看涨消息而下跌——这告诉我们消息已经打折。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610613172068","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Second-Half 2021: Market Forecasts, Thoughts and Observations<blockquote>2021年下半年：市场预测、思考与观察</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSecond-Half 2021: Market Forecasts, Thoughts and Observations<blockquote>2021年下半年：市场预测、思考与观察</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Street</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-04 09:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  The stock market has given us some incredible returns in the past year or two but there are some warning signs developing -- and one key date to keep an eye on.  The stock market, commodity markets and fixed-income markets have been on some wild rides the past 18 months. We penned 2021 forecast pieces back in January (read<b>here</b>and<b>here</b>), but a fresh look at things for the balance of the year seems like a good idea with commodity plays on the rise, oil prices coming on strong while other areas of the market are cooling.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的一两年里，股市给我们带来了一些令人难以置信的回报，但也出现了一些警告信号，还有一个需要关注的关键日期。过去18个月里，股市、大宗商品市场和固定收益市场经历了一些疯狂的波动。我们早在1月份就撰写了2021年预测文章（阅读<b>在这里</b>和<b>在这里</b>），但随着大宗商品市场的上涨，油价走强，而市场其他领域正在降温，重新审视今年剩余时间的情况似乎是个好主意。</blockquote></p><p> Let's start our analysis with some monthly candlestick charts.</p><p><blockquote>让我们从一些月度烛台图开始我们的分析。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Candlestick AnalysisDow Jones Industrials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>烛台分析道琼斯工业指数</b></blockquote></p><p> In this monthly Japanese candlestick chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), below, we can see that prices have made a huge rise over the past decade and a very sharp advance since March of 2020. Taking a little liberty in our methodology we can see an 8 to 10 record high advance since the 2020 pandemic low. Notice the slowing pace of the 12-month price momentum study in the lower panel.</p><p><blockquote>在下面道琼斯工业平均指数（道琼斯）的月度日本烛台图中，我们可以看到价格在过去十年中大幅上涨，自2020年3月以来涨幅非常大。在我们的方法上稍微自由一点，我们可以看到自2020年疫情低点以来，有8到10个历史新高的进展。请注意下图中12个月价格动量研究的步伐放缓。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c0c65a961cdf2a9b6bdba9757ca8c5d\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>S&amp;P 500</b></p><p><blockquote><b>标普500</b></blockquote></p><p> In this monthly Japanese candlestick chart of the S&amp;P 500 Index (SPX) below, we can see another big advance over the past 10 years. The index made a sideways consolidation pattern in 2015-2016 around 2,000 to 2,200 and we have for most part doubled from there. I would not be surprised to see some significant profit-taking as the SPX approached 4,400. Momentum has been slowing here too.</p><p><blockquote>在下面的标普500指数（SPX）月度日本烛台图中，我们可以看到过去10年的另一次大幅上涨。该指数在2015-2016年在2,000点至2,200点附近形成了横向盘整模式，我们在很大程度上从那里翻了一番。当SPX接近4,400点时，看到一些重大获利了结，我不会感到惊讶。这里的势头也在放缓。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72a594dc06dc6364a1f4432334018a95\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Nasdaq</b></p><p><blockquote><b>纳斯达克</b></blockquote></p><p> In this monthly Japanese candlestick chart of the Nasdaq, below, we can see that prices have doubled from their consolidation pattern in 2018 and 2019 in the 7,000 area. Prices have nearly tripled from their consolidation around 5,000 in 2015-2016. Yes, the momentum study is slowing.</p><p><blockquote>在下面的纳斯达克月度日本烛台图中，我们可以看到价格比2018年和2019年在7,000点区域的盘整模式翻了一番。价格较2015-2016年5,000点左右的盘整上涨了近两倍。是的，动量研究正在放缓。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a32c8a3b8cbd6d84dc3c316188d0714c\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Russell 2000</b></p><p><blockquote><b>罗素2000</b></blockquote></p><p> In this monthly candlestick chart of the Russell 2000 index (RUT) we can see that prices have more than doubled from their March 2020 low. This could take your breath away. With the string of white candles and weakening momentum we want to be more cautious as we move forward in the third quarter.</p><p><blockquote>在这张罗素2000指数(RUT)的月度烛台图中，我们可以看到价格较2020年3月的低点上涨了一倍多。这会让你大吃一惊。随着一串白色蜡烛和势头减弱，我们希望在第三季度前进时更加谨慎。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00e2eb68915aa7fe3a35df2b5cca4c7c\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">All these charts (above) show the 8 to 10 record high pattern so we should be on our guard for a top reversal pattern.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些图表（上图）都显示了8到10个创纪录的高点模式，因此我们应该警惕顶部反转模式。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Advance-Decline Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>进退分析</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, let's turn our attention to the Advance-Decline line.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们把注意力转向涨跌线。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Dow Jones Industrials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>道琼斯工业指数</b></blockquote></p><p> In this daily candlestick chart of the DJIA, below, we show the Advance-Decline line which has been moving sideways since early May. This difference between the price action is a bearish divergence but the DJIA is a narrow average with only 30 stocks.</p><p><blockquote>在下面的道琼斯日线烛台图中，我们显示了自五月初以来一直横向移动的上涨-下跌线。价格走势之间的差异是看跌背离，但道琼斯是一个狭窄的平均值，只有30只股票。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5af49f53b61d7234c47302a43ef8fc54\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"622\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>S&amp;P 500</b></p><p><blockquote><b>标普500</b></blockquote></p><p> In this chart of the S&amp;P 500 and its Advance-Decline line, below, we can see that prices and the Advance-Decline line are pointed up so a bearish divergence has not started.</p><p><blockquote>在下面这张标普500及其上涨-下跌线的图表中，我们可以看到价格和上涨-下跌线向上，因此看跌背离尚未开始。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f76b13060f5ac582155923264b7fb2f\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"622\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Nasdaq</b></p><p><blockquote><b>纳斯达克</b></blockquote></p><p> In this chart of the Nasdaq, below, we can see a significant bearish divergence. The Nasdaq has been making new highs but the Advance-Decline line has been moving sideways to lower from February.</p><p><blockquote>在下面的纳斯达克图表中，我们可以看到显着的看跌背离。纳斯达克一直在创出新高，但涨跌幅线自二月份以来一直横向走低。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c202ca833085d8ae21f804e01da1d20e\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"622\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Nasdaq 100</b></p><p><blockquote><b>纳斯达克100</b></blockquote></p><p> In this chart of Nasdaq 100 and its Advance-Decline line, below, we see prices and the indicator going up together. No bearish divergence here.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02f49df814666506de6bd3a8f8cff358\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"622\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Sectors</b></p><p><blockquote>在下面这张纳斯达克100指数及其涨跌幅线的图表中，我们看到价格和指标一起上涨。这里没有看跌背离。<b>部门</b></blockquote></p><p> The marketplace can be broken down into 11 sectors but I want to cover just part of the list today.<b>Energy</b>In this weekly candlestick chart of the (XLE) , the S&amp;P Energy sector ETF, below, we can see that prices have doubled from their pandemic low. Trading volume has been very heavy and the weekly On-Balance-Volume has been stalled the past four months. The 12-week price momentum study has been weakening for a bearish divergence.</p><p><blockquote>市场可以分为11个部分，但我今天只想介绍其中的一部分。<b>能源</b>在下面的标准普尔能源行业ETF(XLE)的周线烛台图中，我们可以看到价格较大流行低点翻了一番。过去四个月，交易量非常大，每周余额交易量停滞不前。12周价格动量研究因看跌背离而减弱。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6c7c0cb796bbdd57de9aba933c615ce\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Two energy names that could rally further in the third quarter are EOG Resources (EOG) and ConocoPhillips (COP) . Here are the charts.</p><p><blockquote>第三季度可能进一步上涨的两家能源公司是EOG Resources(EOG)和康菲石油公司(COP)。这是图表。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d2fc7721f85cac4b418a821156c714f\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/874820e1c1c54a567c399f5129e88676\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc072387bc975d38d92af5b6b3de16ac\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d2822d20c835ce4f4860d5eb45212cb\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Financials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务</b></blockquote></p><p> In this daily bar chart of the (XLF) ,&nbsp; the Financial sector ETF, below, we can see that prices have begun a topping phase. Prices have broken below the cresting 50-day moving average line. The On-Balance-Volume line has weakened from early June and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillator has fallen below the zero line for an outright sell signal.</p><p><blockquote>在下面金融板块ETF(XLF)的日线条形图中，我们可以看到价格已经开始见顶阶段。价格已跌破50日移动平均线。自6月初以来，平衡成交量线已走弱，移动平均线收敛背离(MACD)振荡器已跌破零线，发出直接卖出信号。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bddfbb55fad602b4a29ff4ef1ba47e0f\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Technology</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术</b></blockquote></p><p> In this weekly Japanese candlestick chart of the (XLK) , the Technology sector ETF, below, we can see that prices have more than doubled from their pandemic low. The trading volume has diminished since March 2020 and the weekly On-Balance-Volume line has been stuck in a sideways trend for the past 12 months. The 12-week price momentum study in the bottom panel shows lower highs being made the past year. This is a significant bearish divergence.</p><p><blockquote>在下面的科技行业ETF(XLK)的每周日本烛台图中，我们可以看到价格较大流行低点上涨了一倍多。自2020年3月以来，交易量一直在减少，每周平衡交易量线在过去12个月中一直处于横盘趋势。底部面板中的12周价格动量研究显示，过去一年的高点较低。这是一个显着的看跌背离。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9d9a652c4c72b421556bfbd90dd8d44\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Industrials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>工业</b></blockquote></p><p> In this daily bar chart of the (XLI) &nbsp;, the Industrial sector ETF, below, we can see a weakening picture. Prices have slipped below the cresting 50-day moving average line. The On-Balance-Volume line has weakened the past two months and the MACD oscillator is below the zero line in sell territory.</p><p><blockquote>在下面工业板块ETF(XLI)的日线条形图中，我们可以看到疲软的情况。价格已跌破50日移动平均线。在过去的两个月里，平衡成交量线已经走弱，MACD振荡指标低于卖出区域的零线。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47838029e80d6b87a83abb9f1352bdaf\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Bonds</b></p><p><blockquote><b>债券</b></blockquote></p><p> In this daily Point and Figure chart of the (TLT) , the iShares 20+ year Treasury Bond ETF, below, we can see a potential upside price target in the $165 area.</p><p><blockquote>在下面的iShares 20+年期国债ETF(TLT)的每日点数图中，我们可以看到165美元区域的潜在上行目标价。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/587f7bae63415985c849540d27b7ffaa\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"992\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>U.S. Dollar</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美元</b></blockquote></p><p> In this daily Japanese candlestick chart of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) we can see that prices have stopped short of a test of its late March/early April highs. DXY could make a slow drift downward to retest its May lows.</p><p><blockquote>在美元指数（DXY）的每日日本烛台图中，我们可以看到价格已经停止测试3月底/4月初的高点。DXY可能会缓慢向下漂移，重新测试5月份的低点。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c086d11fb1d31f2710dc3752d158a2e7\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Mark Your Calendars</b></p><p><blockquote><b>标记您的日历</b></blockquote></p><p> A technical service that I have been using since the mid-1990s (www.pfr.com) is anticipating a large-scale \"trend change\" on or about Aug. 2 and this bears watching. This could mark the start of perhaps a 10% correction in the major averages. The next trend change is anticipated for late October, which could be the start of a year-end rally. We want to pay closer attention to the advance-decline numbers and price action as we approach Aug. 2.</p><p><blockquote>我自20世纪90年代中期以来一直使用的一项技术服务(www.pfr.com)预计8月2日左右将出现大规模“趋势变化”，这值得关注。这可能标志着主要平均指数可能出现10%的回调。下一次趋势变化预计将在10月下旬，这可能是年底反弹的开始。随着8月2日的临近，我们希望密切关注涨跌数据和价格走势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sentiment</b></p><p><blockquote><b>情绪</b></blockquote></p><p> No discussion about the stock market would be complete without some discussion of sentiment. There are plenty of \"signs\" of the stock market being out over its skis.</p><p><blockquote>如果不讨论情绪，任何关于股市的讨论都是不完整的。有很多“迹象”表明股市正在下滑。</blockquote></p><p> I see a number of market letters and commentary from fellow technical analysts and they are all bullish. I get emails from Real Money subscribers asking about this stock or that stock and I have two observations:</p><p><blockquote>我看到了许多来自其他技术分析师的市场信件和评论，他们都是看涨的。我收到来自Real Money订阅者的电子邮件，询问这只股票或那只股票，我有两个观察结果：</blockquote></p><p> 1. The names they are asking about seem to be more speculative in nature. I cannot remember the last time someone emailed me about a boring utility stock.</p><p><blockquote>1.他们询问的名字似乎更具投机性质。我不记得上次有人给我发电子邮件询问无聊的公用事业股票是什么时候了。</blockquote></p><p> 2. The second thing that has struck me about the emails is the failure to recognize risk. Everyone wants to know the next highest price target but they never ask about where to move a stop up.</p><p><blockquote>2.电子邮件给我留下深刻印象的第二件事是没有认识到风险。每个人都想知道下一个最高价格目标，但他们从不问在哪里移动止损。</blockquote></p><p> Sentiment is not a precise indicator and much of it is anecdotal in nature and hard to quantify. The anticipated Robinhood IPO could mark a turning point.</p><p><blockquote>情绪不是一个精确的指标，其中大部分本质上是轶事，很难量化。预期的Robinhood IPO可能标志着一个转折点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bottom-Line Strategy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线策略</b></blockquote></p><p> The stock market has given us some incredible returns in the past year or two but there are some warning signs developing and traders need to start leaning in the other direction.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的一两年里，股市给了我们一些令人难以置信的回报，但也出现了一些警告信号，交易者需要开始向另一个方向倾斜。</blockquote></p><p> Consider adding to commodity plays as they could be the outperformers of the third quarter.</p><p><blockquote>考虑增加大宗商品投资，因为它们可能是第三季度表现出色的股票。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Consider becoming a scale-up profit taker. Continue to raise your stop protection to lock in more gains. Pay closer attention to where in the range prices are closing. Highs are typically made when prices close near the high of the day.Is the On-Balance-Volume line weakening as volume increases on days when the market or your favorite stock declines?</p><p><blockquote>考虑成为规模扩大的获利者。继续提高止损保护，锁定更多收益。密切关注价格收盘区间。高点通常是在价格接近当天高点时形成的。当市场或您最喜欢的股票下跌时，平衡成交量线是否会随着成交量增加而减弱？</blockquote></p><p> Pay closer attention to the news and watch for stocks and the market to decline on bullish news -- this tells us that the news has been discounted.</p><p><blockquote>密切关注新闻，观察股票和市场因看涨消息而下跌——这告诉我们消息已经打折。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/second-half-2021-market-forecasts-thoughts-and-observations-15702152?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO\">The Street</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/second-half-2021-market-forecasts-thoughts-and-observations-15702152?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1192425829","content_text":"The stock market has given us some incredible returns in the past year or two but there are some warning signs developing -- and one key date to keep an eye on.\n\nThe stock market, commodity markets and fixed-income markets have been on some wild rides the past 18 months. We penned 2021 forecast pieces back in January (readhereandhere), but a fresh look at things for the balance of the year seems like a good idea with commodity plays on the rise, oil prices coming on strong while other areas of the market are cooling.\nLet's start our analysis with some monthly candlestick charts.\nCandlestick AnalysisDow Jones Industrials\nIn this monthly Japanese candlestick chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), below, we can see that prices have made a huge rise over the past decade and a very sharp advance since March of 2020. Taking a little liberty in our methodology we can see an 8 to 10 record high advance since the 2020 pandemic low. Notice the slowing pace of the 12-month price momentum study in the lower panel.\nS&P 500\nIn this monthly Japanese candlestick chart of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) below, we can see another big advance over the past 10 years. The index made a sideways consolidation pattern in 2015-2016 around 2,000 to 2,200 and we have for most part doubled from there. I would not be surprised to see some significant profit-taking as the SPX approached 4,400. Momentum has been slowing here too.\nNasdaq\nIn this monthly Japanese candlestick chart of the Nasdaq, below, we can see that prices have doubled from their consolidation pattern in 2018 and 2019 in the 7,000 area. Prices have nearly tripled from their consolidation around 5,000 in 2015-2016. Yes, the momentum study is slowing.\nRussell 2000\nIn this monthly candlestick chart of the Russell 2000 index (RUT) we can see that prices have more than doubled from their March 2020 low. This could take your breath away. With the string of white candles and weakening momentum we want to be more cautious as we move forward in the third quarter.\nAll these charts (above) show the 8 to 10 record high pattern so we should be on our guard for a top reversal pattern.\nAdvance-Decline Analysis\nNow, let's turn our attention to the Advance-Decline line.\nDow Jones Industrials\nIn this daily candlestick chart of the DJIA, below, we show the Advance-Decline line which has been moving sideways since early May. This difference between the price action is a bearish divergence but the DJIA is a narrow average with only 30 stocks.\nS&P 500\nIn this chart of the S&P 500 and its Advance-Decline line, below, we can see that prices and the Advance-Decline line are pointed up so a bearish divergence has not started.\nNasdaq\nIn this chart of the Nasdaq, below, we can see a significant bearish divergence. The Nasdaq has been making new highs but the Advance-Decline line has been moving sideways to lower from February.\nNasdaq 100\nIn this chart of Nasdaq 100 and its Advance-Decline line, below, we see prices and the indicator going up together. No bearish divergence here.Sectors\nThe marketplace can be broken down into 11 sectors but I want to cover just part of the list today.EnergyIn this weekly candlestick chart of the (XLE) , the S&P Energy sector ETF, below, we can see that prices have doubled from their pandemic low. Trading volume has been very heavy and the weekly On-Balance-Volume has been stalled the past four months. The 12-week price momentum study has been weakening for a bearish divergence.\n\nTwo energy names that could rally further in the third quarter are EOG Resources (EOG) and ConocoPhillips (COP) . Here are the charts.\nFinancials\nIn this daily bar chart of the (XLF) ,  the Financial sector ETF, below, we can see that prices have begun a topping phase. Prices have broken below the cresting 50-day moving average line. The On-Balance-Volume line has weakened from early June and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillator has fallen below the zero line for an outright sell signal.\nTechnology\nIn this weekly Japanese candlestick chart of the (XLK) , the Technology sector ETF, below, we can see that prices have more than doubled from their pandemic low. The trading volume has diminished since March 2020 and the weekly On-Balance-Volume line has been stuck in a sideways trend for the past 12 months. The 12-week price momentum study in the bottom panel shows lower highs being made the past year. This is a significant bearish divergence.\nIndustrials\nIn this daily bar chart of the (XLI)  , the Industrial sector ETF, below, we can see a weakening picture. Prices have slipped below the cresting 50-day moving average line. The On-Balance-Volume line has weakened the past two months and the MACD oscillator is below the zero line in sell territory.\nBonds\nIn this daily Point and Figure chart of the (TLT) , the iShares 20+ year Treasury Bond ETF, below, we can see a potential upside price target in the $165 area.\nU.S. Dollar\nIn this daily Japanese candlestick chart of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) we can see that prices have stopped short of a test of its late March/early April highs. DXY could make a slow drift downward to retest its May lows.\nMark Your Calendars\nA technical service that I have been using since the mid-1990s (www.pfr.com) is anticipating a large-scale \"trend change\" on or about Aug. 2 and this bears watching. This could mark the start of perhaps a 10% correction in the major averages. The next trend change is anticipated for late October, which could be the start of a year-end rally. We want to pay closer attention to the advance-decline numbers and price action as we approach Aug. 2.\nSentiment\nNo discussion about the stock market would be complete without some discussion of sentiment. There are plenty of \"signs\" of the stock market being out over its skis.\nI see a number of market letters and commentary from fellow technical analysts and they are all bullish. I get emails from Real Money subscribers asking about this stock or that stock and I have two observations:\n1. The names they are asking about seem to be more speculative in nature. I cannot remember the last time someone emailed me about a boring utility stock.\n2. The second thing that has struck me about the emails is the failure to recognize risk. Everyone wants to know the next highest price target but they never ask about where to move a stop up.\nSentiment is not a precise indicator and much of it is anecdotal in nature and hard to quantify. The anticipated Robinhood IPO could mark a turning point.\nBottom-Line Strategy\nThe stock market has given us some incredible returns in the past year or two but there are some warning signs developing and traders need to start leaning in the other direction.\nConsider adding to commodity plays as they could be the outperformers of the third quarter.\nConsider becoming a scale-up profit taker. Continue to raise your stop protection to lock in more gains. Pay closer attention to where in the range prices are closing. Highs are typically made when prices close near the high of the day.Is the On-Balance-Volume line weakening as volume increases on days when the market or your favorite stock declines?\nPay closer attention to the news and watch for stocks and the market to decline on bullish news -- this tells us that the news has been discounted.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":603,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":158797440,"gmtCreate":1625181381080,"gmtModify":1631892933350,"author":{"id":"3576390362043433","authorId":"3576390362043433","name":"chelvi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6a8a4bf7a99f1ceb457affa9db3e865","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576390362043433","authorIdStr":"3576390362043433"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/158797440","repostId":"2148825910","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":372,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}