valueTrader的个人主页 - 老虎社区

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valueTrader

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2021-06-10

Inflation may not be transitory and the fed is behind

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-03-19

Fed will have to raise rates soon

Fed Disappoints Market, Lets SLR Relief Expire: What Happens Next<blockquote>美联储令市场失望，让SLR救助到期：接下来会发生什么</blockquote>

2021-05-31

EV companies milking the market

Tesla Rival Rivian Selects Underwriters For IPO, Could Seek $70B Valuation<blockquote>特斯拉竞争对手Rivian选择IPO承销商，可能寻求70B美元估值</blockquote>

2021-05-13

This time, inflation is real.

Chocolate’s About to Get More Expensive<blockquote>巧克力即将变得更加昂贵</blockquote>

2021-06-11

Inflation is here. Many will regret

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-04

Obviously taking advantage of retail traders

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-28

Wow, meme stocks to the moon

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-15

Still a good target price

Tesla Bull Cuts Price Target Because of Batteries. Shares Rise Anyway.<blockquote>特斯拉牛市因电池而下调目标价。无论如何，股价都会上涨。</blockquote>

2021-06-08

Sentiment is too high

Have Stocks Already Priced In The "Economic Boom"?<blockquote>股票已经在“经济繁荣”中定价了吗？</blockquote>

2021-06-04

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$time to buy

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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Temasek should support local more","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/882327983","repostId":"2167558930","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2822,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":817276248,"gmtCreate":1630972642184,"gmtModify":1631890250150,"author":{"id":"3576118384681891","authorId":"3576118384681891","name":"valueTrader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b20c817213be1647e2dee23f5d62e0d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576118384681891","idStr":"3576118384681891"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I think it's a bad idea. Too volatile as a daily currency","listText":"I think it's a bad idea. Too volatile as a daily currency","text":"I think it's a bad idea. Too volatile as a daily currency","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/817276248","repostId":"2165333904","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3733,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":813597695,"gmtCreate":1630211303317,"gmtModify":1704957106981,"author":{"id":"3576118384681891","authorId":"3576118384681891","name":"valueTrader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b20c817213be1647e2dee23f5d62e0d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576118384681891","idStr":"3576118384681891"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pumping bitcoin","listText":"Pumping bitcoin","text":"Pumping bitcoin","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/813597695","repostId":"1199074003","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199074003","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1630077382,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1199074003?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-27 23:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Crypto stocks surged in morning trading<blockquote>加密货币股票早盘飙升</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199074003","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Crypto stocks surged in morning trading.Bit Digital,Marathon Digital,Riot Blockchain,SoS Ltd,Square,","content":"<p>Crypto stocks surged in morning trading.Bit Digital,Marathon Digital,Riot Blockchain,SoS Ltd,Square,Coinbase&nbsp;and&nbsp;Paypal&nbsp;climbed between 1% and 13%.</p><p><blockquote>加密货币股票在早盘交易中飙升。Bit Digital、Marathon Digital、Riot Blockchain、SoS Ltd、Square、Coinbase和Paypal股价上涨1%至13%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67735af69f95f6a88ee67ae3737e58c0\" tg-width=\"364\" tg-height=\"715\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Crypto stocks surged in morning trading<blockquote>加密货币股票早盘飙升</blockquote></title>\n<style 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stocks surged in morning trading.Bit Digital,Marathon Digital,Riot Blockchain,SoS Ltd,Square,Coinbase&nbsp;and&nbsp;Paypal&nbsp;climbed between 1% and 13%.</p><p><blockquote>加密货币股票在早盘交易中飙升。Bit Digital、Marathon Digital、Riot Blockchain、SoS Ltd、Square、Coinbase和Paypal股价上涨1%至13%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67735af69f95f6a88ee67ae3737e58c0\" tg-width=\"364\" tg-height=\"715\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"EBON":"亿邦国际","MARA":"MARA Holdings","BTBT":"Bit Digital, Inc.","CAN":"嘉楠科技","COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc.","RIOT":"Riot Platforms","NCTY":"第九城市","SOS":"SOS Limited"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199074003","content_text":"Crypto stocks surged in morning trading.Bit Digital,Marathon Digital,Riot Blockchain,SoS Ltd,Square,Coinbase and Paypal climbed between 1% and 13%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CAN":0.9,"SOS":0.9,"NCTY":0.9,"SQ":0.9,"MARA":0.9,"BTBT":0.9,"RIOT":0.9,"BTCM":0.9,"EBON":0.9,"COIN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2561,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":141183455,"gmtCreate":1625841960477,"gmtModify":1631887563266,"author":{"id":"3576118384681891","authorId":"3576118384681891","name":"valueTrader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b20c817213be1647e2dee23f5d62e0d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576118384681891","idStr":"3576118384681891"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOED\">$1847 Goedeker(GOED)$</a>go go go","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOED\">$1847 Goedeker(GOED)$</a>go go go","text":"$1847 Goedeker(GOED)$go go go","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5cc4f8d74abea0c21fe4e53b535efe33","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/141183455","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3240,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150857949,"gmtCreate":1624893874581,"gmtModify":1631886721329,"author":{"id":"3576118384681891","authorId":"3576118384681891","name":"valueTrader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b20c817213be1647e2dee23f5d62e0d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576118384681891","idStr":"3576118384681891"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOL\">$ReneSola(SOL)$</a>waiting to pop","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOL\">$ReneSola(SOL)$</a>waiting to pop","text":"$ReneSola(SOL)$waiting to 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moon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150965565","repostId":"1195560202","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2743,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124205557,"gmtCreate":1624765308679,"gmtModify":1631890250184,"author":{"id":"3576118384681891","authorId":"3576118384681891","name":"valueTrader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b20c817213be1647e2dee23f5d62e0d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576118384681891","idStr":"3576118384681891"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"This is not really a recall. Do computer manufacturers recall due to software issues?","listText":"This is not really a recall. Do computer manufacturers recall due to software issues?","text":"This is not really a recall. Do computer manufacturers recall due to software issues?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124205557","repostId":"1121141266","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121141266","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624760169,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1121141266?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-27 10:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla ‘Recall’ in China to Impact Nearly 300,000 Vehicles. What to Know.<blockquote>特斯拉在华“召回”近30万辆汽车。知道什么。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121141266","media":"Barrons","summary":"Tesla will have to “recall” nearly 300,000 vehicles made in China or imported there due to a problem with an assisted driving function, China’s State Administration for Market Regulation said late on Friday.Tesla  apologized on Weibo, a Chinese social media site. “We apologize for the inconvenience caused by this recall to all car owners,” the company said, according toThe Wall Street Journal. “Tesla will continue to improve safety in strict accordance with national requirements.”The notice from","content":"<p>Tesla&nbsp;will have to “recall” nearly 300,000 vehicles made in China or imported there due to a problem with an assisted driving function, China’s State Administration for Market Regulation said late on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>中国国家市场监督管理总局周五晚间表示，由于辅助驾驶功能存在问题，特斯拉将不得不“召回”近30万辆中国制造或进口的汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla (ticker: TSLA) apologized on Weibo, a Chinese social media site. “We apologize for the inconvenience caused by this recall to all car owners,” the company said, according toThe Wall Street Journal. “Tesla will continue to improve safety in strict accordance with national requirements.”</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）在中国社交媒体网站微博上道歉。据《华尔街日报》报道，该公司表示：“对于此次召回给所有车主带来的不便，我们深表歉意。”“特斯拉将严格按照国家要求，持续提升安全性。”</blockquote></p><p> The notice from the Chinese regulator said that the cruise control system could be activated by accident, which could cause a collision, according to newswire service&nbsp;AFP. Tesla will be able to update the software for impacted customers remotely, so they will not have to return their cars, the report said. The regulator did not immediately answer a question from<i>Barron’s</i>on whether the issue had already led to collisions in China.</p><p><blockquote>据法新社报道，中国监管机构的通知称，巡航控制系统可能会意外启动，从而导致碰撞。报道称，特斯拉将能够为受影响的客户远程更新软件，这样他们就不必归还汽车。监管机构没有立即回答来自<i>巴伦周刊</i>关于这个问题是否已经在中国导致了碰撞。</blockquote></p><p> China is a key market for Tesla, which sells about 30% of its vehicles there. Sales in China have been spotty lately, with a decline in April followed by&nbsp;more promising May numbers. Tesla has been making vehicles at a Shanghai plant since 2019.</p><p><blockquote>中国是特斯拉的一个重要市场，该公司约30%的汽车在中国销售。中国的销售额最近参差不齐，4月份有所下降，随后5月份的数据更加乐观。自2019年以来，特斯拉一直在上海工厂生产汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Lately, there have been complaints from some Chinese customers about Tesla’s quality and service, with&nbsp;a protest at the Shanghai Auto Show in April. Tesla apologized to customers in April for how it dealt with customer complaints.</p><p><blockquote>最近，一些中国客户抱怨特斯拉的质量和服务，并在四月份的上海车展上提出了抗议。特斯拉四月份就其处理客户投诉的方式向客户道歉。</blockquote></p><p> The issues are part of&nbsp;a larger public relations problem&nbsp;that may be weighing on Tesla stock, which is down 5% this year after rising eight-fold in 2020. That said, the stock was&nbsp;on an upswing over the past week, perhaps related to optimism about end-of-quarter vehicle deliveries. Tesla has not announced the date of its second-quarter earnings report yet.</p><p><blockquote>这些问题是更大的公关问题的一部分，该问题可能会给特斯拉股价带来压力，该股在2020年上涨八倍后，今年下跌了5%。尽管如此，该股在过去一周一直在上涨，这可能与对季末汽车交付的乐观情绪有关。特斯拉尚未公布第二季度财报发布日期。</blockquote></p><p> It’s not clear if the issue in China could also impact vehicles in the U.S. Tesla did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Saturday morning.</p><p><blockquote>目前尚不清楚中国的问题是否也会影响美国的车辆。周六上午，特斯拉没有立即回应置评请求。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla ‘Recall’ in China to Impact Nearly 300,000 Vehicles. What to Know.<blockquote>特斯拉在华“召回”近30万辆汽车。知道什么。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla ‘Recall’ in China to Impact Nearly 300,000 Vehicles. What to Know.<blockquote>特斯拉在华“召回”近30万辆汽车。知道什么。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-27 10:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tesla&nbsp;will have to “recall” nearly 300,000 vehicles made in China or imported there due to a problem with an assisted driving function, China’s State Administration for Market Regulation said late on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>中国国家市场监督管理总局周五晚间表示，由于辅助驾驶功能存在问题，特斯拉将不得不“召回”近30万辆中国制造或进口的汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla (ticker: TSLA) apologized on Weibo, a Chinese social media site. “We apologize for the inconvenience caused by this recall to all car owners,” the company said, according toThe Wall Street Journal. “Tesla will continue to improve safety in strict accordance with national requirements.”</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）在中国社交媒体网站微博上道歉。据《华尔街日报》报道，该公司表示：“对于此次召回给所有车主带来的不便，我们深表歉意。”“特斯拉将严格按照国家要求，持续提升安全性。”</blockquote></p><p> The notice from the Chinese regulator said that the cruise control system could be activated by accident, which could cause a collision, according to newswire service&nbsp;AFP. Tesla will be able to update the software for impacted customers remotely, so they will not have to return their cars, the report said. The regulator did not immediately answer a question from<i>Barron’s</i>on whether the issue had already led to collisions in China.</p><p><blockquote>据法新社报道，中国监管机构的通知称，巡航控制系统可能会意外启动，从而导致碰撞。报道称，特斯拉将能够为受影响的客户远程更新软件，这样他们就不必归还汽车。监管机构没有立即回答来自<i>巴伦周刊</i>关于这个问题是否已经在中国导致了碰撞。</blockquote></p><p> China is a key market for Tesla, which sells about 30% of its vehicles there. Sales in China have been spotty lately, with a decline in April followed by&nbsp;more promising May numbers. Tesla has been making vehicles at a Shanghai plant since 2019.</p><p><blockquote>中国是特斯拉的一个重要市场，该公司约30%的汽车在中国销售。中国的销售额最近参差不齐，4月份有所下降，随后5月份的数据更加乐观。自2019年以来，特斯拉一直在上海工厂生产汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Lately, there have been complaints from some Chinese customers about Tesla’s quality and service, with&nbsp;a protest at the Shanghai Auto Show in April. Tesla apologized to customers in April for how it dealt with customer complaints.</p><p><blockquote>最近，一些中国客户抱怨特斯拉的质量和服务，并在四月份的上海车展上提出了抗议。特斯拉四月份就其处理客户投诉的方式向客户道歉。</blockquote></p><p> The issues are part of&nbsp;a larger public relations problem&nbsp;that may be weighing on Tesla stock, which is down 5% this year after rising eight-fold in 2020. That said, the stock was&nbsp;on an upswing over the past week, perhaps related to optimism about end-of-quarter vehicle deliveries. Tesla has not announced the date of its second-quarter earnings report yet.</p><p><blockquote>这些问题是更大的公关问题的一部分，该问题可能会给特斯拉股价带来压力，该股在2020年上涨八倍后，今年下跌了5%。尽管如此，该股在过去一周一直在上涨，这可能与对季末汽车交付的乐观情绪有关。特斯拉尚未公布第二季度财报发布日期。</blockquote></p><p> It’s not clear if the issue in China could also impact vehicles in the U.S. Tesla did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Saturday morning.</p><p><blockquote>目前尚不清楚中国的问题是否也会影响美国的车辆。周六上午，特斯拉没有立即回应置评请求。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-recall-china-51624718932?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-recall-china-51624718932?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121141266","content_text":"Tesla will have to “recall” nearly 300,000 vehicles made in China or imported there due to a problem with an assisted driving function, China’s State Administration for Market Regulation said late on Friday.\nTesla (ticker: TSLA) apologized on Weibo, a Chinese social media site. “We apologize for the inconvenience caused by this recall to all car owners,” the company said, according toThe Wall Street Journal. “Tesla will continue to improve safety in strict accordance with national requirements.”\nThe notice from the Chinese regulator said that the cruise control system could be activated by accident, which could cause a collision, according to newswire service AFP. Tesla will be able to update the software for impacted customers remotely, so they will not have to return their cars, the report said. The regulator did not immediately answer a question fromBarron’son whether the issue had already led to collisions in China.\nChina is a key market for Tesla, which sells about 30% of its vehicles there. Sales in China have been spotty lately, with a decline in April followed by more promising May numbers. Tesla has been making vehicles at a Shanghai plant since 2019.\nLately, there have been complaints from some Chinese customers about Tesla’s quality and service, with a protest at the Shanghai Auto Show in April. Tesla apologized to customers in April for how it dealt with customer complaints.\nThe issues are part of a larger public relations problem that may be weighing on Tesla stock, which is down 5% this year after rising eight-fold in 2020. That said, the stock was on an upswing over the past week, perhaps related to optimism about end-of-quarter vehicle deliveries. Tesla has not announced the date of its second-quarter earnings report yet.\nIt’s not clear if the issue in China could also impact vehicles in the U.S. Tesla did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Saturday morning.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3524,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121727950,"gmtCreate":1624493309370,"gmtModify":1631890250196,"author":{"id":"3576118384681891","authorId":"3576118384681891","name":"valueTrader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b20c817213be1647e2dee23f5d62e0d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576118384681891","idStr":"3576118384681891"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great Investor!","listText":"Great Investor!","text":"Great Investor!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121727950","repostId":"1170004118","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3471,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129295807,"gmtCreate":1624373136109,"gmtModify":1631890250210,"author":{"id":"3576118384681891","authorId":"3576118384681891","name":"valueTrader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b20c817213be1647e2dee23f5d62e0d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576118384681891","idStr":"3576118384681891"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pump and dump","listText":"Pump and dump","text":"Pump and dump","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/129295807","repostId":"1164880576","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":859,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":165752466,"gmtCreate":1624158957955,"gmtModify":1631890250218,"author":{"id":"3576118384681891","authorId":"3576118384681891","name":"valueTrader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b20c817213be1647e2dee23f5d62e0d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576118384681891","idStr":"3576118384681891"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Doesn't make sense if inflation drops due to technology advancement and give the fed a reason to keep rates low. Easy money is creating an illusion","listText":"Doesn't make sense if inflation drops due to technology advancement and give the fed a reason to keep rates low. Easy money is creating an illusion","text":"Doesn't make sense if inflation drops due to technology advancement and give the fed a reason to keep rates low. Easy money is creating an illusion","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/165752466","repostId":"1133385197","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1083,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":165949927,"gmtCreate":1624089813969,"gmtModify":1631884338995,"author":{"id":"3576118384681891","authorId":"3576118384681891","name":"valueTrader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b20c817213be1647e2dee23f5d62e0d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576118384681891","idStr":"3576118384681891"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PATH\">$UiPath(PATH)$</a>path to the future","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PATH\">$UiPath(PATH)$</a>path to the future","text":"$UiPath(PATH)$path to the future","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a6dbaa76cc8d91b6776cb2e89c8d502","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/165949927","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1015,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":165954563,"gmtCreate":1624089605952,"gmtModify":1631890250231,"author":{"id":"3576118384681891","authorId":"3576118384681891","name":"valueTrader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b20c817213be1647e2dee23f5d62e0d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576118384681891","idStr":"3576118384681891"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Back to reality","listText":"Back to reality","text":"Back to reality","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/165954563","repostId":"1166679093","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166679093","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624065234,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1166679093?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-19 09:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Meme Stocks Wall Street Predicts Will Plunge More Than 20%<blockquote>华尔街预测3只模因股将暴跌20%以上</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166679093","media":"fool","summary":"Meme stocks have been all the rage so far this year. That's understandable, with several of them del","content":"<p>Meme stocks have been all the rage so far this year. That's understandable, with several of them delivering triple-digit and even four-digit percentage gains.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，模因股票风靡一时。这是可以理解的，其中一些公司实现了三位数甚至四位数的百分比增长。</blockquote></p><p> However, what goes up can come down. Analysts don't expect the online frenzy fueling the ginormous jumps for some of the most popular stocks will be sustainable. Here are three meme stocks that Wall Street thinks will plunge by more than 20% within the next 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>然而，上升的可以下降。分析师预计，推动一些最受欢迎股票大幅上涨的网络狂热不会持续下去。以下是华尔街认为未来12个月内将暴跌20%以上的三只模因股票。</blockquote></p><p> AMC Entertainment</p><p><blockquote>AMC院线</blockquote></p><p> <b>AMC Entertainment</b>(NYSE:AMC)ranks as the best-performing meme stock of all. Shares of the movie theater operator have skyrocketed close to 2,500% year to date.</p><p><blockquote><b>AMC院线</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）被评为所有模因股票中表现最好的。今年迄今为止，这家电影院运营商的股价已飙升近2,500%。</blockquote></p><p> The consensus among analysts, though, is that the stock could lose 90% of its current value. Even the most optimistic analyst surveyed by Refinitiv has a price target for AMC that's more than 70% below the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>不过，分析师的共识是，该股可能会损失当前价值的90%。即使是Refinitiv调查的最乐观的分析师对AMC的目标价也比当前股价低70%以上。</blockquote></p><p> But isn't AMC's business picking up? Yep. The easing of restrictions has enabled the company to reopen 99% of its U.S. theaters. AMC could benefit as seating capacity limitations imposed by state and local governments are raised. Thereleases of multiple movies this summerand later this year that are likely to be hits should also help.</p><p><blockquote>但AMC的业务不是在回暖吗？是的。限制的放松使该公司能够重新开放99%的美国影院。随着州和地方政府施加的座位容量限制的提高，AMC可能会受益。今年夏天和今年晚些时候上映的多部可能会大受欢迎的电影也应该会有所帮助。</blockquote></p><p> However, Wall Street clearly believes that AMC's share price has gotten way ahead of its business prospects. The stock is trading at nearly eight times higher than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>然而，华尔街显然认为AMC的股价已经远远超出了其业务前景。该股目前的交易价格比COVID-19大流行之前高出近八倍。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health Investments</p><p><blockquote>三叶草健康投资</blockquote></p><p> Only a few days ago, it looked like&nbsp;<b>Clover Health Investments</b>(NASDAQ:CLOV)might push AMC to the side as the hottest meme stock. Retail investors viewed Clover as a primeshort squeezecandidate.</p><p><blockquote>就在几天前，看起来<b>三叶草健康投资</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：CLOV）可能会将AMC推到最热门的模因股票旁边。散户投资者将Clover视为主要的空头挤压候选者。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of June, shares of Clover Health have jumped more than 65%. Analysts, however, don't expect those gains to last. The average price target for the stock is 25% below the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>自6月初以来，Clover Health的股价已上涨超过65%。然而，分析师预计这些涨幅不会持续下去。该股的平均目标价比当前股价低25%。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health's valuation does seem to have gotten out of hand. The healthcare stock currently trades at more than 170 times trailing-12-month sales. That's a nosebleed level, especially considering that the company is the subject of investigations by the U.S. Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission.</p><p><blockquote>Clover Health的估值似乎确实已经失控。该医疗保健股目前的交易价格是过去12个月销售额的170多倍。这是一个令人流鼻血的水平，特别是考虑到该公司是美国调查的对象。司法部和证券交易委员会。</blockquote></p><p> Still, Clover Health could deliver improving financial results this year. The company hopes to significantly increase its membership by targeting the original Medicare program. This represents a major new market opportunity in addition to its current Medicare Advantage business.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，Clover Health今年的财务业绩可能会有所改善。该公司希望通过瞄准原来的医疗保险计划来大幅增加其会员。除了当前的Medicare Advantage业务之外，这也是一个重大的新市场机会。</blockquote></p><p> Sundial Growers</p><p><blockquote>日晷种植者</blockquote></p><p> At one point earlier this year,&nbsp;<b>Sundial Growers</b>(NASDAQ:SNDL)appeared to be a legitimate contender to become the biggest winner among meme stocks. The Canadian marijuana stock vaulted more than 520% higher year to date before giving up much of its gains. However, Sundial's share price has still more than doubled in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，<b>日晷种植者</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：SNDL）似乎是成为模因股票最大赢家的合法竞争者。加拿大大麻股票今年迄今已上涨超过520%，随后回吐了大部分涨幅。不过，Sundial的股价在2021年仍上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts anticipate that the pot stock could fall even further. The consensus price target for Sundial reflects a 23% discount to its current share price. One analyst even thinks the stock could sink 55%.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计大麻库存可能会进一步下跌。Sundial的共识目标价较其当前股价有23%的折扣。一位分析师甚至认为该股可能下跌55%。</blockquote></p><p> There certainly are reasons to be pessimistic about Sundial's core cannabis business. The company's net cannabis revenue fell year over year in the first quarter of 2021. Although Sundial is taking steps that it hopes will turn things around, it remains to be seen if those efforts will succeed.</p><p><blockquote>当然有理由对Sundial的核心大麻业务持悲观态度。该公司2021年第一季度的大麻净收入同比下降。尽管日晷正在采取措施，希望能够扭转局面，但这些努力是否会成功还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Sundial's business deals could give investors reasons for optimism. After all, the company posted positive adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in Q1 due to its investments.</p><p><blockquote>Sundial的商业交易可能会给投资者带来乐观的理由。毕竟，由于其投资，该公司第一季度调整后息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)为正。</blockquote></p><p> However, the cash that Sundial is using to make these investments has come at the cost of increased dilution of its stock. The company can't afford any additional dilution without having to resort to desperate measures to keep its listing on the&nbsp;<b>Nasdaq</b>&nbsp;stock exchange.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Sundial用于进行这些投资的现金是以其股票进一步稀释为代价的。该公司无法承受任何额外的稀释，除非采取绝望的措施来维持其在<b>纳斯达克</b>证券交易所。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Meme Stocks Wall Street Predicts Will Plunge More Than 20%<blockquote>华尔街预测3只模因股将暴跌20%以上</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Meme Stocks Wall Street Predicts Will Plunge More Than 20%<blockquote>华尔街预测3只模因股将暴跌20%以上</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-19 09:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Meme stocks have been all the rage so far this year. That's understandable, with several of them delivering triple-digit and even four-digit percentage gains.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，模因股票风靡一时。这是可以理解的，其中一些公司实现了三位数甚至四位数的百分比增长。</blockquote></p><p> However, what goes up can come down. Analysts don't expect the online frenzy fueling the ginormous jumps for some of the most popular stocks will be sustainable. Here are three meme stocks that Wall Street thinks will plunge by more than 20% within the next 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>然而，上升的可以下降。分析师预计，推动一些最受欢迎股票大幅上涨的网络狂热不会持续下去。以下是华尔街认为未来12个月内将暴跌20%以上的三只模因股票。</blockquote></p><p> AMC Entertainment</p><p><blockquote>AMC院线</blockquote></p><p> <b>AMC Entertainment</b>(NYSE:AMC)ranks as the best-performing meme stock of all. Shares of the movie theater operator have skyrocketed close to 2,500% year to date.</p><p><blockquote><b>AMC院线</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）被评为所有模因股票中表现最好的。今年迄今为止，这家电影院运营商的股价已飙升近2,500%。</blockquote></p><p> The consensus among analysts, though, is that the stock could lose 90% of its current value. Even the most optimistic analyst surveyed by Refinitiv has a price target for AMC that's more than 70% below the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>不过，分析师的共识是，该股可能会损失当前价值的90%。即使是Refinitiv调查的最乐观的分析师对AMC的目标价也比当前股价低70%以上。</blockquote></p><p> But isn't AMC's business picking up? Yep. The easing of restrictions has enabled the company to reopen 99% of its U.S. theaters. AMC could benefit as seating capacity limitations imposed by state and local governments are raised. Thereleases of multiple movies this summerand later this year that are likely to be hits should also help.</p><p><blockquote>但AMC的业务不是在回暖吗？是的。限制的放松使该公司能够重新开放99%的美国影院。随着州和地方政府施加的座位容量限制的提高，AMC可能会受益。今年夏天和今年晚些时候上映的多部可能会大受欢迎的电影也应该会有所帮助。</blockquote></p><p> However, Wall Street clearly believes that AMC's share price has gotten way ahead of its business prospects. The stock is trading at nearly eight times higher than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>然而，华尔街显然认为AMC的股价已经远远超出了其业务前景。该股目前的交易价格比COVID-19大流行之前高出近八倍。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health Investments</p><p><blockquote>三叶草健康投资</blockquote></p><p> Only a few days ago, it looked like&nbsp;<b>Clover Health Investments</b>(NASDAQ:CLOV)might push AMC to the side as the hottest meme stock. Retail investors viewed Clover as a primeshort squeezecandidate.</p><p><blockquote>就在几天前，看起来<b>三叶草健康投资</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：CLOV）可能会将AMC推到最热门的模因股票旁边。散户投资者将Clover视为主要的空头挤压候选者。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of June, shares of Clover Health have jumped more than 65%. Analysts, however, don't expect those gains to last. The average price target for the stock is 25% below the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>自6月初以来，Clover Health的股价已上涨超过65%。然而，分析师预计这些涨幅不会持续下去。该股的平均目标价比当前股价低25%。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health's valuation does seem to have gotten out of hand. The healthcare stock currently trades at more than 170 times trailing-12-month sales. That's a nosebleed level, especially considering that the company is the subject of investigations by the U.S. Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission.</p><p><blockquote>Clover Health的估值似乎确实已经失控。该医疗保健股目前的交易价格是过去12个月销售额的170多倍。这是一个令人流鼻血的水平，特别是考虑到该公司是美国调查的对象。司法部和证券交易委员会。</blockquote></p><p> Still, Clover Health could deliver improving financial results this year. The company hopes to significantly increase its membership by targeting the original Medicare program. This represents a major new market opportunity in addition to its current Medicare Advantage business.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，Clover Health今年的财务业绩可能会有所改善。该公司希望通过瞄准原来的医疗保险计划来大幅增加其会员。除了当前的Medicare Advantage业务之外，这也是一个重大的新市场机会。</blockquote></p><p> Sundial Growers</p><p><blockquote>日晷种植者</blockquote></p><p> At one point earlier this year,&nbsp;<b>Sundial Growers</b>(NASDAQ:SNDL)appeared to be a legitimate contender to become the biggest winner among meme stocks. The Canadian marijuana stock vaulted more than 520% higher year to date before giving up much of its gains. However, Sundial's share price has still more than doubled in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，<b>日晷种植者</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：SNDL）似乎是成为模因股票最大赢家的合法竞争者。加拿大大麻股票今年迄今已上涨超过520%，随后回吐了大部分涨幅。不过，Sundial的股价在2021年仍上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts anticipate that the pot stock could fall even further. The consensus price target for Sundial reflects a 23% discount to its current share price. One analyst even thinks the stock could sink 55%.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计大麻库存可能会进一步下跌。Sundial的共识目标价较其当前股价有23%的折扣。一位分析师甚至认为该股可能下跌55%。</blockquote></p><p> There certainly are reasons to be pessimistic about Sundial's core cannabis business. The company's net cannabis revenue fell year over year in the first quarter of 2021. Although Sundial is taking steps that it hopes will turn things around, it remains to be seen if those efforts will succeed.</p><p><blockquote>当然有理由对Sundial的核心大麻业务持悲观态度。该公司2021年第一季度的大麻净收入同比下降。尽管日晷正在采取措施，希望能够扭转局面，但这些努力是否会成功还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Sundial's business deals could give investors reasons for optimism. After all, the company posted positive adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in Q1 due to its investments.</p><p><blockquote>Sundial的商业交易可能会给投资者带来乐观的理由。毕竟，由于其投资，该公司第一季度调整后息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)为正。</blockquote></p><p> However, the cash that Sundial is using to make these investments has come at the cost of increased dilution of its stock. The company can't afford any additional dilution without having to resort to desperate measures to keep its listing on the&nbsp;<b>Nasdaq</b>&nbsp;stock exchange.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Sundial用于进行这些投资的现金是以其股票进一步稀释为代价的。该公司无法承受任何额外的稀释，除非采取绝望的措施来维持其在<b>纳斯达克</b>证券交易所。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/18/3-meme-stocks-wall-street-predicts-will-plunge-mor/\">fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CLOV":"Clover Health Corp","AMC":"AMC院线","SNDL":"SNDL Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/18/3-meme-stocks-wall-street-predicts-will-plunge-mor/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166679093","content_text":"Meme stocks have been all the rage so far this year. That's understandable, with several of them delivering triple-digit and even four-digit percentage gains.\nHowever, what goes up can come down. Analysts don't expect the online frenzy fueling the ginormous jumps for some of the most popular stocks will be sustainable. Here are three meme stocks that Wall Street thinks will plunge by more than 20% within the next 12 months.\nAMC Entertainment\nAMC Entertainment(NYSE:AMC)ranks as the best-performing meme stock of all. Shares of the movie theater operator have skyrocketed close to 2,500% year to date.\nThe consensus among analysts, though, is that the stock could lose 90% of its current value. Even the most optimistic analyst surveyed by Refinitiv has a price target for AMC that's more than 70% below the current share price.\nBut isn't AMC's business picking up? Yep. The easing of restrictions has enabled the company to reopen 99% of its U.S. theaters. AMC could benefit as seating capacity limitations imposed by state and local governments are raised. Thereleases of multiple movies this summerand later this year that are likely to be hits should also help.\nHowever, Wall Street clearly believes that AMC's share price has gotten way ahead of its business prospects. The stock is trading at nearly eight times higher than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic.\nClover Health Investments\nOnly a few days ago, it looked like Clover Health Investments(NASDAQ:CLOV)might push AMC to the side as the hottest meme stock. Retail investors viewed Clover as a primeshort squeezecandidate.\nSince the beginning of June, shares of Clover Health have jumped more than 65%. Analysts, however, don't expect those gains to last. The average price target for the stock is 25% below the current share price.\nClover Health's valuation does seem to have gotten out of hand. The healthcare stock currently trades at more than 170 times trailing-12-month sales. That's a nosebleed level, especially considering that the company is the subject of investigations by the U.S. Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission.\nStill, Clover Health could deliver improving financial results this year. The company hopes to significantly increase its membership by targeting the original Medicare program. This represents a major new market opportunity in addition to its current Medicare Advantage business.\nSundial Growers\nAt one point earlier this year, Sundial Growers(NASDAQ:SNDL)appeared to be a legitimate contender to become the biggest winner among meme stocks. The Canadian marijuana stock vaulted more than 520% higher year to date before giving up much of its gains. However, Sundial's share price has still more than doubled in 2021.\nAnalysts anticipate that the pot stock could fall even further. The consensus price target for Sundial reflects a 23% discount to its current share price. One analyst even thinks the stock could sink 55%.\nThere certainly are reasons to be pessimistic about Sundial's core cannabis business. The company's net cannabis revenue fell year over year in the first quarter of 2021. Although Sundial is taking steps that it hopes will turn things around, it remains to be seen if those efforts will succeed.\nSundial's business deals could give investors reasons for optimism. After all, the company posted positive adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in Q1 due to its investments.\nHowever, the cash that Sundial is using to make these investments has come at the cost of increased dilution of its stock. The company can't afford any additional dilution without having to resort to desperate measures to keep its listing on the Nasdaq stock exchange.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLOV":0.9,"SNDL":0.9,"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":860,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166592055,"gmtCreate":1624016056577,"gmtModify":1631886721384,"author":{"id":"3576118384681891","authorId":"3576118384681891","name":"valueTrader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b20c817213be1647e2dee23f5d62e0d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576118384681891","idStr":"3576118384681891"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOL\">$ReneSola(SOL)$</a>is the future bright like the sun?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOL\">$ReneSola(SOL)$</a>is the future bright like the sun?","text":"$ReneSola(SOL)$is the future bright like the sun?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/208f7175581f23ebe284fd6d81b8f509","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166592055","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":692,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":163636047,"gmtCreate":1623881805889,"gmtModify":1631890250248,"author":{"id":"3576118384681891","authorId":"3576118384681891","name":"valueTrader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b20c817213be1647e2dee23f5d62e0d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576118384681891","idStr":"3576118384681891"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Fed is now waking up to inflation","listText":"Fed is now waking up to inflation","text":"Fed is now waking up to inflation","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/163636047","repostId":"1170150919","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170150919","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623866564,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1170150919?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-17 02:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fed holds rates steady, but raises inflation expectations sharply and makes no mention of taper.<blockquote>美联储维持利率稳定，但大幅上调通胀预期，且未提及taper。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170150919","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"U.S. stocks dropped to their session lows on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve raised its inflation expectations and moved up the time frame on when it will hike interest rates next.The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 320 points. The S&P 500 traded 0.7% lower after hitting an all-time high in the previous session. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite erased earlier gains and traded 0.5% lower.Nine out of 11 S&P 500 sectors traded in the red, led to the downside by communication services and finan","content":"<p>Fed holds rates steady, but raises inflation expectations sharply and makes no mention of taper.</p><p><blockquote>美联储维持利率稳定，但大幅上调通胀预期，且未提及taper。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. stocks dropped to their session lows on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve raised its inflation expectations and moved up the time frame on when it will hike interest rates next.</p><p><blockquote>美国股市周三跌至盘中低点，此前美联储上调了通胀预期，并提前了下次加息的时间框架。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 320 points. The S&amp;P 500 traded 0.7% lower after hitting an all-time high in the previous session. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite erased earlier gains and traded 0.5% lower.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数下跌320点。标普500在前一交易日创下历史新高后下跌0.7%。以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数抹去了早些时候的涨幅，下跌0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Nine out of 11 S&amp;P 500 sectors traded in the red, led to the downside by communication services and financials.</p><p><blockquote>11个标普500板块中有9个出现亏损，其中通信服务和金融板块领跌。</blockquote></p><p> Economic reopening plays provided the broader market with some support. Major airline stocks American Airlines, United and Delta all traded higher. Royal Caribbean and Carnival both climbed 2% afteran upgrade from Wolfe Research.</p><p><blockquote>经济重新开放为大盘提供了一些支撑。主要航空股美国航空、联合航空和达美航空均走高。在Wolfe Research上调评级后，皇家加勒比和嘉年华股价均上涨2%。</blockquote></p><p> The policymaking Federal Open Market Committee indicated that rate hikes could come as soon as 2023, after indicating in March that it saw no increases until at least 2024.</p><p><blockquote>制定政策的联邦公开市场委员会表示，最早可能在2023年加息，此前该委员会在3月份表示至少在2024年之前不会加息。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed also raised its headline inflation expectation to 3.4%, a full percentage point higher than the March projection, the post-meeting statement continued to say that inflation pressures are \"transitory.\"</p><p><blockquote>美联储还将总体通胀预期上调至3.4%，比3月份的预测高出整整一个百分点，会后声明继续称通胀压力是“暂时的”。</blockquote></p><p> Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.</p><p><blockquote>主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔将于下午2:30举行新闻发布会。等。</blockquote></p><p> The meeting came as inflation heats up, with producer prices rising at their fastest annual rate in nearly 11 years duringMay, a report on Tuesday showed. This has prompted some, including Paul Tudor Jones, to call for the central bank to re-think its easy monetary policy.</p><p><blockquote>周二的一份报告显示，此次会议召开之际，通胀加剧，5月份生产者价格以近11年来最快的年增长率上涨。这促使包括保罗·都铎·琼斯在内的一些人呼吁央行重新考虑其宽松的货币政策。</blockquote></p><p> The central bank has been buying $120 billion worth of bonds each month as the economy continues to recover from the coronavirus pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>随着经济继续从冠状病毒大流行中复苏，央行每月购买价值1200亿美元的债券。</blockquote></p><p> \"The drama this week will be whether the Fed sits tight or admits that inflation is rising and that the Fed needs to tighten,\" said Brad McMillan, CIO at Commonwealth Financial Network. \"Since the Fed has a dual mandate—unemployment and inflation—that suggests it should indeed keep its focus on unemployment, rather than inflation.\"</p><p><blockquote>联邦金融网络首席信息官布拉德·麦克米兰表示：“本周的戏剧性事件将是美联储是按兵不动，还是承认通胀正在上升，美联储需要收紧政策。”“由于美联储有双重使命——失业和通胀——这表明它确实应该将重点放在失业上，而不是通胀上。”</blockquote></p><p> Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who is testifying before the Senate Finance Committee Wednesday, said higher price pressures shouldn't last over the long run.</p><p><blockquote>周三在参议院财政委员会作证的财政部长珍妮特·耶伦表示，从长远来看，更高的价格压力不应持续下去。</blockquote></p><p> \"I previously said that I see important transitory influences at work and I don't anticipate that it will be permanent,\" Yellen said. \"But we continue to monitor inflation data very carefully, and importantly for the long run inflation outlook we see inflation expectations by most measures … as being well-anchored.\"</p><p><blockquote>耶伦表示：“我之前说过，我看到了重要的暂时影响，但我预计这种影响不会是永久性的。”“但我们将继续非常仔细地监测通胀数据，对于长期通胀前景来说，重要的是，我们认为从大多数指标来看，通胀预期……都是稳固的。”</blockquote></p><p> On Wednesday,China said it will release industrial metalsincluding copper, aluminum and zinc from its national reserves to curb commodity prices. Copper price has fallen more than 10% from its record high, dipping into correction territory on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>周三，中国表示将从国家储备中释放铜、铝和锌等工业金属，以抑制大宗商品价格。铜价较历史高点下跌逾10%，周二跌入回调区间。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed holds rates steady, but raises inflation expectations sharply and makes no mention of taper.<blockquote>美联储维持利率稳定，但大幅上调通胀预期，且未提及taper。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed holds rates steady, but raises inflation expectations sharply and makes no mention of taper.<blockquote>美联储维持利率稳定，但大幅上调通胀预期，且未提及taper。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-17 02:02</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Fed holds rates steady, but raises inflation expectations sharply and makes no mention of taper.</p><p><blockquote>美联储维持利率稳定，但大幅上调通胀预期，且未提及taper。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. stocks dropped to their session lows on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve raised its inflation expectations and moved up the time frame on when it will hike interest rates next.</p><p><blockquote>美国股市周三跌至盘中低点，此前美联储上调了通胀预期，并提前了下次加息的时间框架。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 320 points. The S&amp;P 500 traded 0.7% lower after hitting an all-time high in the previous session. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite erased earlier gains and traded 0.5% lower.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数下跌320点。标普500在前一交易日创下历史新高后下跌0.7%。以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数抹去了早些时候的涨幅，下跌0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Nine out of 11 S&amp;P 500 sectors traded in the red, led to the downside by communication services and financials.</p><p><blockquote>11个标普500板块中有9个出现亏损，其中通信服务和金融板块领跌。</blockquote></p><p> Economic reopening plays provided the broader market with some support. Major airline stocks American Airlines, United and Delta all traded higher. Royal Caribbean and Carnival both climbed 2% afteran upgrade from Wolfe Research.</p><p><blockquote>经济重新开放为大盘提供了一些支撑。主要航空股美国航空、联合航空和达美航空均走高。在Wolfe Research上调评级后，皇家加勒比和嘉年华股价均上涨2%。</blockquote></p><p> The policymaking Federal Open Market Committee indicated that rate hikes could come as soon as 2023, after indicating in March that it saw no increases until at least 2024.</p><p><blockquote>制定政策的联邦公开市场委员会表示，最早可能在2023年加息，此前该委员会在3月份表示至少在2024年之前不会加息。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed also raised its headline inflation expectation to 3.4%, a full percentage point higher than the March projection, the post-meeting statement continued to say that inflation pressures are \"transitory.\"</p><p><blockquote>美联储还将总体通胀预期上调至3.4%，比3月份的预测高出整整一个百分点，会后声明继续称通胀压力是“暂时的”。</blockquote></p><p> Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.</p><p><blockquote>主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔将于下午2:30举行新闻发布会。等。</blockquote></p><p> The meeting came as inflation heats up, with producer prices rising at their fastest annual rate in nearly 11 years duringMay, a report on Tuesday showed. This has prompted some, including Paul Tudor Jones, to call for the central bank to re-think its easy monetary policy.</p><p><blockquote>周二的一份报告显示，此次会议召开之际，通胀加剧，5月份生产者价格以近11年来最快的年增长率上涨。这促使包括保罗·都铎·琼斯在内的一些人呼吁央行重新考虑其宽松的货币政策。</blockquote></p><p> The central bank has been buying $120 billion worth of bonds each month as the economy continues to recover from the coronavirus pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>随着经济继续从冠状病毒大流行中复苏，央行每月购买价值1200亿美元的债券。</blockquote></p><p> \"The drama this week will be whether the Fed sits tight or admits that inflation is rising and that the Fed needs to tighten,\" said Brad McMillan, CIO at Commonwealth Financial Network. \"Since the Fed has a dual mandate—unemployment and inflation—that suggests it should indeed keep its focus on unemployment, rather than inflation.\"</p><p><blockquote>联邦金融网络首席信息官布拉德·麦克米兰表示：“本周的戏剧性事件将是美联储是按兵不动，还是承认通胀正在上升，美联储需要收紧政策。”“由于美联储有双重使命——失业和通胀——这表明它确实应该将重点放在失业上，而不是通胀上。”</blockquote></p><p> Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who is testifying before the Senate Finance Committee Wednesday, said higher price pressures shouldn't last over the long run.</p><p><blockquote>周三在参议院财政委员会作证的财政部长珍妮特·耶伦表示，从长远来看，更高的价格压力不应持续下去。</blockquote></p><p> \"I previously said that I see important transitory influences at work and I don't anticipate that it will be permanent,\" Yellen said. \"But we continue to monitor inflation data very carefully, and importantly for the long run inflation outlook we see inflation expectations by most measures … as being well-anchored.\"</p><p><blockquote>耶伦表示：“我之前说过，我看到了重要的暂时影响，但我预计这种影响不会是永久性的。”“但我们将继续非常仔细地监测通胀数据，对于长期通胀前景来说，重要的是，我们认为从大多数指标来看，通胀预期……都是稳固的。”</blockquote></p><p> On Wednesday,China said it will release industrial metalsincluding copper, aluminum and zinc from its national reserves to curb commodity prices. Copper price has fallen more than 10% from its record high, dipping into correction territory on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>周三，中国表示将从国家储备中释放铜、铝和锌等工业金属，以抑制大宗商品价格。铜价较历史高点下跌逾10%，周二跌入回调区间。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170150919","content_text":"Fed holds rates steady, but raises inflation expectations sharply and makes no mention of taper.\nU.S. stocks dropped to their session lows on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve raised its inflation expectations and moved up the time frame on when it will hike interest rates next.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 320 points. The S&P 500 traded 0.7% lower after hitting an all-time high in the previous session. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite erased earlier gains and traded 0.5% lower.\nNine out of 11 S&P 500 sectors traded in the red, led to the downside by communication services and financials.\nEconomic reopening plays provided the broader market with some support. Major airline stocks American Airlines, United and Delta all traded higher. Royal Caribbean and Carnival both climbed 2% afteran upgrade from Wolfe Research.\nThe policymaking Federal Open Market Committee indicated that rate hikes could come as soon as 2023, after indicating in March that it saw no increases until at least 2024.\nThe Fed also raised its headline inflation expectation to 3.4%, a full percentage point higher than the March projection, the post-meeting statement continued to say that inflation pressures are \"transitory.\"\nChairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.\nThe meeting came as inflation heats up, with producer prices rising at their fastest annual rate in nearly 11 years duringMay, a report on Tuesday showed. This has prompted some, including Paul Tudor Jones, to call for the central bank to re-think its easy monetary policy.\nThe central bank has been buying $120 billion worth of bonds each month as the economy continues to recover from the coronavirus pandemic.\n\"The drama this week will be whether the Fed sits tight or admits that inflation is rising and that the Fed needs to tighten,\" said Brad McMillan, CIO at Commonwealth Financial Network. \"Since the Fed has a dual mandate—unemployment and inflation—that suggests it should indeed keep its focus on unemployment, rather than inflation.\"\nTreasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who is testifying before the Senate Finance Committee Wednesday, said higher price pressures shouldn't last over the long run.\n\"I previously said that I see important transitory influences at work and I don't anticipate that it will be permanent,\" Yellen said. \"But we continue to monitor inflation data very carefully, and importantly for the long run inflation outlook we see inflation expectations by most measures … as being well-anchored.\"\nOn Wednesday,China said it will release industrial metalsincluding copper, aluminum and zinc from its national reserves to curb commodity prices. Copper price has fallen more than 10% from its record high, dipping into correction territory on Tuesday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1117,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169790570,"gmtCreate":1623850215190,"gmtModify":1631892122164,"author":{"id":"3576118384681891","authorId":"3576118384681891","name":"valueTrader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b20c817213be1647e2dee23f5d62e0d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576118384681891","idStr":"3576118384681891"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Come on<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>","listText":"Come on<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>","text":"Come on$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f899f3948b54d79d2a3a4895ca8728f","width":"1080","height":"2866"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169790570","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1069,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169373515,"gmtCreate":1623819101437,"gmtModify":1631892122168,"author":{"id":"3576118384681891","authorId":"3576118384681891","name":"valueTrader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b20c817213be1647e2dee23f5d62e0d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576118384681891","idStr":"3576118384681891"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good stocks","listText":"Good stocks","text":"Good stocks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169373515","repostId":"2143975182","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1232,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160368420,"gmtCreate":1623772929860,"gmtModify":1631886721393,"author":{"id":"3576118384681891","authorId":"3576118384681891","name":"valueTrader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b20c817213be1647e2dee23f5d62e0d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576118384681891","idStr":"3576118384681891"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOL\">$ReneSola(SOL)$</a>why dropping?!?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOL\">$ReneSola(SOL)$</a>why dropping?!?","text":"$ReneSola(SOL)$why dropping?!?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/620873ee95806edea355d574429a146d","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160368420","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":796,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":184559663,"gmtCreate":1623719532452,"gmtModify":1631892122167,"author":{"id":"3576118384681891","authorId":"3576118384681891","name":"valueTrader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b20c817213be1647e2dee23f5d62e0d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576118384681891","idStr":"3576118384681891"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Still a good target price","listText":"Still a good target price","text":"Still a good target price","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/184559663","repostId":"1131396369","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131396369","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623718501,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1131396369?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 08:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Bull Cuts Price Target Because of Batteries. Shares Rise Anyway.<blockquote>特斯拉牛市因电池而下调目标价。无论如何，股价都会上涨。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131396369","media":"Barrons","summary":"A Tesla bull is a little less bullish Monday. Battery technology is the main reason.\nCanaccord analy","content":"<p>A Tesla bull is a little less bullish Monday. Battery technology is the main reason.</p><p><blockquote>周一，特斯拉牛市的牛市不那么乐观。电池技术是主要原因。</blockquote></p><p> Canaccord analyst Jonathan Dorsheimer threw his Tesla (ticker: TSLA) target price into reverse Monday, cutting it to $812, down $162, or 17% from $974. He maintained his Buy rating though.</p><p><blockquote>Canaccord分析师Jonathan Dorsheimer周一将特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）目标价下调至812美元，较974美元下跌162美元，即17%。不过，他维持买入评级。</blockquote></p><p> The cut isn’t having much impact on shares in Monday trading. Tesla stock is up about 1.3% to $618 a share. </p><p><blockquote>此次降息对周一交易的股价没有太大影响。特斯拉股价上涨约1.3%，至每股618美元。</blockquote></p><p> Even though he is still bullish on the company, Dorsheimer is wary about Tesla’s new batteries. In particular the larger&nbsp;4680 cell design&nbsp;which promises better charge time, longer per-charge range and lower cost.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Dorsheimer仍然看好该公司，但他对特斯拉的新电池持谨慎态度。特别是更大的4680电池设计，保证了更好的充电时间、更长的每次充电范围和更低的成本。</blockquote></p><p> The 4680 refers to a cylindrical battery with a diameter of 46 millimeters and a length of 80 millimeters. Today’s Tesla’s have 2170 batteries. That’s 21 millimeter diameter and 70 millimeter length.</p><p><blockquote>4680是指直径46毫米、长度80毫米的圆柱形电池。今天的特斯拉有2170电池。直径21毫米，长度70毫米。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla recently started delivering its&nbsp;Model S Plaid&nbsp;vehicle, billed as the fastest production car ever built. It can go zero to 60 miles per hour in under 2 seconds. But it also canceled the&nbsp;Plaid+&nbsp;which was going to have longer per-charge range partly because of the new battery design.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉最近开始交付Model S Plaid汽车，被宣传为有史以来最快的量产车。它可以在2秒内从零加速到60英里/小时。但它也取消了Plaid+，该产品每次充电的续航里程将更长，部分原因是新的电池设计。</blockquote></p><p> Dorsheimer wrote that the Plaid+ “was reportedly going to be the first to feature the new 4680 cell design.” The cancellation “signals to us the new cell format isn’t ready for production just yet, and cell production capacity constraints for energy storage products like Powerwall remain.”</p><p><blockquote>Dorsheimer写道，Plaid+“据报道将是第一款采用新4680电池设计的产品。”此次取消“向我们表明，新的电池格式尚未准备好投入生产，Powerwall等储能产品的电池产能限制仍然存在。”</blockquote></p><p> If the batteries aren’t ready yet, that’s a problem. Better batteries are a competitive advantage for electric-vehicle makers. Lower costs also allow Tesla to either charge less or make more money per car. Lower prices can expand the pool of Tesla buyers. Better profits, of course, are cheered by investors. And any battery-supply constraints could impact Tesla vehicle deliveries down the road. Wall Street expects Tesla to deliver 800,000 to 900,000 cars in 2021, up from about 500,000 cars in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>如果电池还没准备好，那就有问题了。更好的电池是电动汽车制造商的竞争优势。较低的成本也使特斯拉每辆车的收费更低或赚更多的钱。较低的价格可以扩大特斯拉买家的数量。更好的利润当然会受到投资者的欢呼。任何电池供应限制都可能影响特斯拉汽车未来的交付。华尔街预计，特斯拉2021年将交付80万至90万辆汽车，高于2020年的约50万辆。</blockquote></p><p> Dorsheimer’s target-price cut lowered the&nbsp;analyst average&nbsp;for Tesla stock to $618 a share from $623.</p><p><blockquote>多斯海默下调的目标价将分析师对特斯拉股票的平均预期从每股623美元下调至618美元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d33672c951c9eacd352a94e2f02112b\" tg-width=\"977\" tg-height=\"642\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Drops aren’t the norm recently. Tesla stock’s average analyst target price is up more than 830% from the start of 2018. The average analyst target price, however, has stopped rising since early February.</p><p><blockquote>最近跌倒并不常见。特斯拉股票的分析师平均目标价较2018年初上涨了830%以上。然而，分析师平均目标价自二月初以来已停止上涨。</blockquote></p><p> That’s also when bond yields started rising because of inflation fears. Higher bond yields hurt richly valued technology companies&nbsp;more than others&nbsp;for two reasons. Higher yields make it more costly to finance growth. It also reduces the present value of future cash flow. And growth companies generate most of their cash flow far in the future.</p><p><blockquote>这也是债券收益率因通胀担忧而开始上升的时候。债券收益率上升对估值高的科技公司的伤害比其他公司更大，原因有二。较高的收益率使得增长融资成本更高。它还减少了未来现金流的现值。成长型公司的大部分现金流是在遥远的未来产生的。</blockquote></p><p> Investors are looking&nbsp;for a catalyst&nbsp;to snap Tesla stock out of its recent range. First quarter earnings didn’t do it. Neither has the launch of the Plaid. Production from new facilities in Texas and Germany, due to start around year end 2021, as well as the new batteries, could be what investors need.</p><p><blockquote>投资者正在寻找snap·特斯拉股票走出近期区间的催化剂。第一季度的收益没有做到这一点。格子的推出也没有。德克萨斯州和德国的新工厂将于2021年底左右开始生产，以及新电池可能正是投资者所需要的。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, they also need EV demand to stay strong and for interest rates to stay in a low, stable range.</p><p><blockquote>当然，他们还需要电动汽车需求保持强劲，利率保持在较低、稳定的范围内。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Bull Cuts Price Target Because of Batteries. Shares Rise Anyway.<blockquote>特斯拉牛市因电池而下调目标价。无论如何，股价都会上涨。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Bull Cuts Price Target Because of Batteries. Shares Rise Anyway.<blockquote>特斯拉牛市因电池而下调目标价。无论如何，股价都会上涨。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-15 08:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>A Tesla bull is a little less bullish Monday. Battery technology is the main reason.</p><p><blockquote>周一，特斯拉牛市的牛市不那么乐观。电池技术是主要原因。</blockquote></p><p> Canaccord analyst Jonathan Dorsheimer threw his Tesla (ticker: TSLA) target price into reverse Monday, cutting it to $812, down $162, or 17% from $974. He maintained his Buy rating though.</p><p><blockquote>Canaccord分析师Jonathan Dorsheimer周一将特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）目标价下调至812美元，较974美元下跌162美元，即17%。不过，他维持买入评级。</blockquote></p><p> The cut isn’t having much impact on shares in Monday trading. Tesla stock is up about 1.3% to $618 a share. </p><p><blockquote>此次降息对周一交易的股价没有太大影响。特斯拉股价上涨约1.3%，至每股618美元。</blockquote></p><p> Even though he is still bullish on the company, Dorsheimer is wary about Tesla’s new batteries. In particular the larger&nbsp;4680 cell design&nbsp;which promises better charge time, longer per-charge range and lower cost.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Dorsheimer仍然看好该公司，但他对特斯拉的新电池持谨慎态度。特别是更大的4680电池设计，保证了更好的充电时间、更长的每次充电范围和更低的成本。</blockquote></p><p> The 4680 refers to a cylindrical battery with a diameter of 46 millimeters and a length of 80 millimeters. Today’s Tesla’s have 2170 batteries. That’s 21 millimeter diameter and 70 millimeter length.</p><p><blockquote>4680是指直径46毫米、长度80毫米的圆柱形电池。今天的特斯拉有2170电池。直径21毫米，长度70毫米。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla recently started delivering its&nbsp;Model S Plaid&nbsp;vehicle, billed as the fastest production car ever built. It can go zero to 60 miles per hour in under 2 seconds. But it also canceled the&nbsp;Plaid+&nbsp;which was going to have longer per-charge range partly because of the new battery design.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉最近开始交付Model S Plaid汽车，被宣传为有史以来最快的量产车。它可以在2秒内从零加速到60英里/小时。但它也取消了Plaid+，该产品每次充电的续航里程将更长，部分原因是新的电池设计。</blockquote></p><p> Dorsheimer wrote that the Plaid+ “was reportedly going to be the first to feature the new 4680 cell design.” The cancellation “signals to us the new cell format isn’t ready for production just yet, and cell production capacity constraints for energy storage products like Powerwall remain.”</p><p><blockquote>Dorsheimer写道，Plaid+“据报道将是第一款采用新4680电池设计的产品。”此次取消“向我们表明，新的电池格式尚未准备好投入生产，Powerwall等储能产品的电池产能限制仍然存在。”</blockquote></p><p> If the batteries aren’t ready yet, that’s a problem. Better batteries are a competitive advantage for electric-vehicle makers. Lower costs also allow Tesla to either charge less or make more money per car. Lower prices can expand the pool of Tesla buyers. Better profits, of course, are cheered by investors. And any battery-supply constraints could impact Tesla vehicle deliveries down the road. Wall Street expects Tesla to deliver 800,000 to 900,000 cars in 2021, up from about 500,000 cars in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>如果电池还没准备好，那就有问题了。更好的电池是电动汽车制造商的竞争优势。较低的成本也使特斯拉每辆车的收费更低或赚更多的钱。较低的价格可以扩大特斯拉买家的数量。更好的利润当然会受到投资者的欢呼。任何电池供应限制都可能影响特斯拉汽车未来的交付。华尔街预计，特斯拉2021年将交付80万至90万辆汽车，高于2020年的约50万辆。</blockquote></p><p> Dorsheimer’s target-price cut lowered the&nbsp;analyst average&nbsp;for Tesla stock to $618 a share from $623.</p><p><blockquote>多斯海默下调的目标价将分析师对特斯拉股票的平均预期从每股623美元下调至618美元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d33672c951c9eacd352a94e2f02112b\" tg-width=\"977\" tg-height=\"642\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Drops aren’t the norm recently. Tesla stock’s average analyst target price is up more than 830% from the start of 2018. The average analyst target price, however, has stopped rising since early February.</p><p><blockquote>最近跌倒并不常见。特斯拉股票的分析师平均目标价较2018年初上涨了830%以上。然而，分析师平均目标价自二月初以来已停止上涨。</blockquote></p><p> That’s also when bond yields started rising because of inflation fears. Higher bond yields hurt richly valued technology companies&nbsp;more than others&nbsp;for two reasons. Higher yields make it more costly to finance growth. It also reduces the present value of future cash flow. And growth companies generate most of their cash flow far in the future.</p><p><blockquote>这也是债券收益率因通胀担忧而开始上升的时候。债券收益率上升对估值高的科技公司的伤害比其他公司更大，原因有二。较高的收益率使得增长融资成本更高。它还减少了未来现金流的现值。成长型公司的大部分现金流是在遥远的未来产生的。</blockquote></p><p> Investors are looking&nbsp;for a catalyst&nbsp;to snap Tesla stock out of its recent range. First quarter earnings didn’t do it. Neither has the launch of the Plaid. Production from new facilities in Texas and Germany, due to start around year end 2021, as well as the new batteries, could be what investors need.</p><p><blockquote>投资者正在寻找snap·特斯拉股票走出近期区间的催化剂。第一季度的收益没有做到这一点。格子的推出也没有。德克萨斯州和德国的新工厂将于2021年底左右开始生产，以及新电池可能正是投资者所需要的。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, they also need EV demand to stay strong and for interest rates to stay in a low, stable range.</p><p><blockquote>当然，他们还需要电动汽车需求保持强劲，利率保持在较低、稳定的范围内。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-bull-cuts-price-target-batteries-51623686363?mod=RTA\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-bull-cuts-price-target-batteries-51623686363?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131396369","content_text":"A Tesla bull is a little less bullish Monday. Battery technology is the main reason.\nCanaccord analyst Jonathan Dorsheimer threw his Tesla (ticker: TSLA) target price into reverse Monday, cutting it to $812, down $162, or 17% from $974. He maintained his Buy rating though.\nThe cut isn’t having much impact on shares in Monday trading. Tesla stock is up about 1.3% to $618 a share. \nEven though he is still bullish on the company, Dorsheimer is wary about Tesla’s new batteries. In particular the larger 4680 cell design which promises better charge time, longer per-charge range and lower cost.\nThe 4680 refers to a cylindrical battery with a diameter of 46 millimeters and a length of 80 millimeters. Today’s Tesla’s have 2170 batteries. That’s 21 millimeter diameter and 70 millimeter length.\nTesla recently started delivering its Model S Plaid vehicle, billed as the fastest production car ever built. It can go zero to 60 miles per hour in under 2 seconds. But it also canceled the Plaid+ which was going to have longer per-charge range partly because of the new battery design.\nDorsheimer wrote that the Plaid+ “was reportedly going to be the first to feature the new 4680 cell design.” The cancellation “signals to us the new cell format isn’t ready for production just yet, and cell production capacity constraints for energy storage products like Powerwall remain.”\nIf the batteries aren’t ready yet, that’s a problem. Better batteries are a competitive advantage for electric-vehicle makers. Lower costs also allow Tesla to either charge less or make more money per car. Lower prices can expand the pool of Tesla buyers. Better profits, of course, are cheered by investors. And any battery-supply constraints could impact Tesla vehicle deliveries down the road. Wall Street expects Tesla to deliver 800,000 to 900,000 cars in 2021, up from about 500,000 cars in 2020.\nDorsheimer’s target-price cut lowered the analyst average for Tesla stock to $618 a share from $623.\n\nDrops aren’t the norm recently. Tesla stock’s average analyst target price is up more than 830% from the start of 2018. The average analyst target price, however, has stopped rising since early February.\nThat’s also when bond yields started rising because of inflation fears. Higher bond yields hurt richly valued technology companies more than others for two reasons. Higher yields make it more costly to finance growth. It also reduces the present value of future cash flow. And growth companies generate most of their cash flow far in the future.\nInvestors are looking for a catalyst to snap Tesla stock out of its recent range. First quarter earnings didn’t do it. Neither has the launch of the Plaid. Production from new facilities in Texas and Germany, due to start around year end 2021, as well as the new batteries, could be what investors need.\nOf course, they also need EV demand to stay strong and for interest rates to stay in a low, stable range.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":864,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":189547456,"gmtCreate":1623283407675,"gmtModify":1631892122176,"author":{"id":"3576118384681891","authorId":"3576118384681891","name":"valueTrader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b20c817213be1647e2dee23f5d62e0d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576118384681891","idStr":"3576118384681891"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Inflation may not be transitory and the fed is behind","listText":"Inflation may not be transitory and the fed is behind","text":"Inflation may not be transitory and the fed is behind","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/189547456","repostId":"1193607718","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":950,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":350115724,"gmtCreate":1616165831968,"gmtModify":1634526900327,"author":{"id":"3576118384681891","authorId":"3576118384681891","name":"valueTrader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b20c817213be1647e2dee23f5d62e0d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576118384681891","idStr":"3576118384681891"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Fed will have to raise rates soon","listText":"Fed will have to raise rates soon","text":"Fed will have to raise rates soon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/350115724","repostId":"1199154789","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199154789","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616164372,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1199154789?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-19 22:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fed Disappoints Market, Lets SLR Relief Expire: What Happens Next<blockquote>美联储令市场失望，让SLR救助到期：接下来会发生什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199154789","media":"zerohedge","summary":"As washinted at, and discussed in depth here,the Fed decided - under political pressure from progressive Democrats such asElizabeth Warren and Sherrod Brown- to let the temporary Supplementary Leverage Ratio  exemption expire as scheduled on March 31, the one year anniversary of the rule change.The federal bank regulatory agencies today announced that the temporary change to the supplementary leverage ratio, or SLR, for depository institutions issued on May 15, 2020, will expire as scheduled on ","content":"<p>As washinted at, and discussed in depth here,the Fed decided - under political pressure from progressive Democrats such asElizabeth Warren and Sherrod Brown- to let the temporary Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) exemption expire as scheduled on March 31, the one year anniversary of the rule change.</p><p><blockquote>正如本文所暗示和深入讨论的那样，在伊丽莎白·沃伦(Elizabeth Warren)和谢罗德·布朗(Sherrod Brown)等进步民主党人的政治压力下，美联储决定让临时补充杠杆率(SLR)豁免如期于3月31日（规则变更一周年）到期。</blockquote></p><p>The federal bank regulatory agencies today announced that the temporary change to the supplementary leverage ratio, or SLR, for depository institutions issued on May 15, 2020, will expire as scheduled on March 31, 2021.The temporary change was made to provide flexibility for depository institutions to provide credit to households and businesses in light of the COVID-19 event.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b822960da59d651f093b5113cd0c3fd0\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"319\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">This outcome is theone (again) correctly predictedby former NY Fed guru Zoltan Pozsar who following the FOMC said that \"the fact that the Fed made this adjustment practically preemptively – the o/n RRP facility is not being used at the moment, so there are no capacity constraints yet, while repo and bill yields aren’t trading negative yet –<b>suggests that the Fed is “foaming the runway” for the end of SLR exemption</b>.\"</p><p><blockquote>联邦银行监管机构今天宣布，2020年5月15日发布的存款机构补充杠杆率（SLR）的临时变更将于2021年3月31日如期到期。鉴于新冠肺炎事件，这一临时变化是为了为存款机构向家庭和企业提供信贷提供灵活性。这一结果是前纽约联储大师Zoltan Pozsar（再次）正确预测的结果，他跟随FOMC表示，“事实上，美联储实际上是先发制人地做出了这一调整——目前没有使用o/n RRP工具，因此没有能力限制，而回购和票据收益率尚未为负——<b>暗示美联储正在为SLR豁免的结束“铺路”</b>.\"</blockquote></p><p>Knowing well this would be a very hot button issue for the market, the Fed published thefollowing statementto ease trader nerves, noting that while the SLR special treatment will expire on March 31, the Fed is \"inviting public comment on several potential SLR modifications\" and furthermore, \"<b>Board may need to address the current design and calibration of the SLR over time to prevent strains from developing that could both constrain economic growth and undermine financial stability</b>\" - in short, if yields spike, the Fed will re-introduce the SLR without delay:</p><p><blockquote>美联储深知这将是市场的一个非常热门的问题，因此发表了以下声明以缓解交易员的紧张情绪，并指出，虽然SLR特殊待遇将于3月31日到期，但美联储正在“邀请公众就几项潜在的SLR修改发表评论”。此外，”<b>随着时间的推移，董事会可能需要解决SLR当前的设计和校准问题，以防止出现既限制经济增长又破坏金融稳定的压力</b>”——简而言之，如果收益率飙升，美联储将立即重新引入SLR：</blockquote></p><p>The Federal Reserve Board on Friday announced that the temporary change to its supplementary leverage ratio, or SLR, for bank holding companies will expire as scheduled on March 31. <b>Additionally, the Board will shortly seek comment on measures to adjust the SLR. The Board will take appropriate actions to assure that any changes to the SLR do not erode the overall strength of bank capital requirements.</b>To ease strains in the Treasury market resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic and to promote lending to households and businesses, the Board temporarily modified the SLR last year to exclude U.S. Treasury securities and central bank reserves. Since that time, the Treasury market has stabilized. <b>However, because of recent growth in the supply of central bank reserves and the issuance of Treasury securities, the Board may need to address the current design and calibration of the SLR over time to prevent strains from developing that could both constrain economic growth and undermine financial stability.To ensure that the SLR—which was established in 2014 as an additional capital requirement—remains effective in an environment of higher reserves, the Board will soon be inviting public comment on several potential SLR modifications.</b>The proposal and comments will contribute to ongoing discussions with the Department of the Treasury and other regulators on future work to ensure the resiliency of the Treasury market.The Fed's soothing wods notwithstanding,<b>having been primed for a favorable outcome, the Fed's disappointing announcement was hardly the news traders were hoping for and stocks tumbled...</b></p><p><blockquote>美联储周五宣布，银行控股公司补充杠杆率（SLR）的临时变化将于3月31日如期到期。<b>此外，董事会将很快就调整SLR的措施征求意见。董事会将采取适当行动，确保SLR的任何变化不会削弱银行资本要求的整体实力。</b>为了缓解COVID-19大流行造成的国债市场压力并促进对家庭和企业的贷款，董事会去年暂时修改了SLR，将美国国债和央行储备排除在外。从那时起，国债市场已经稳定下来。<b>然而，由于最近中央银行储备供应和国债发行的增长，理事会可能需要随着时间的推移解决SLR的当前设计和校准问题，以防止出现既限制经济增长又破坏金融稳定的压力。为了确保SLR（2014年作为额外资本要求而设立）在准备金较高的环境下保持有效，董事会将很快就几项潜在的SLR修改征求公众意见。</b>该提案和评论将有助于与财政部和其他监管机构就未来工作进行持续讨论，以确保国债市场的弹性。尽管美联储的WOD令人宽慰，<b>在为有利的结果做好准备后，美联储令人失望的声明几乎不是交易员所希望的消息，股市暴跌...</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c341c3843a5031cd1599c2c89e198050\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"305\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Bond yields spiked...</p><p><blockquote>债券收益率飙升...</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14173c1ce587fb45efe4c30ecc1dfbab\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"284\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... while the stock of JPM, which is the most exposed bank to SLR relief (as noted yesterday in \"Facing Up To JP Morgan's Leverage Relief Threats\")...</p><p><blockquote>...而摩根大通的股票是受SLR救济影响最大的银行（正如昨天在“面对摩根大通的杠杆救济威胁”中所指出的）...</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32811183fba3dbddf1c440836298c7f3\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">.... slumped.</p><p><blockquote>....萎靡不振。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fba41463f15e79d2b8436cdd6a526fc\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"306\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In case you've been living under a rock, here's why you should care about the SLR decision: First, for those whomissed our primer on the issue, some background from JPM (ironically the one bank that has the most to lose from the Fed's decision) the bottom line is that without SLR relief,<b>banks may have to delever, raise new capital, halt buybacks, sell preferred stock, turn down deposits and generally push back on reserves (not necessarily all of these, and not in that order) just as the Fed is injecting hundreds of billions of reserves into the market as the Treasury depletes its TGA account.</b></p><p><blockquote>如果您一直生活在岩石下，以下是您应该关心SLR决定的原因：首先，对于那些错过了我们关于这个问题的入门知识的人来说，摩根大通的一些背景（具有讽刺意味的是，这是一家从美联储损失最大的银行）的决定）底线是，如果没有SLR救济，<b>银行可能不得不去杠杆化、筹集新资本、停止回购、出售优先股、拒绝存款并普遍减少准备金（不一定是所有这些，也不是按这个顺序），就像美联储向市场注入数千亿美元一样随着财政部耗尽其TGA账户。</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>The massive expansion of the Fed’s balance that has occurred implied an equally massive growth in bank reserves held at Federal Reserve banks. <b>The expiration of the regulatory relief would add ~$2.1tn of leverage exposure across the 8 GSIBs. As well, TGA reduction and continued QE could add another ~$2.35tn of deposits to the system during 2021.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/392342c2f3e1dd008b2276172a9b3ecf\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"253\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">While the expiry of the carve-out on March 31 would not have an immediate impact on GSIBs, the continued increase in leverage assets throughout the course of the year would increase long-term debt (LTD) and preferred requirements. Here, JPM takes an optimistic view and writes that<b>\"even the “worst” case issuance scenario as very manageable, with LTD needs of $35bn for TLAC requirements and preferred needs of $15-$20bn to maintain the industry-wide SLR at 5.6%.</b></p><p><blockquote>美联储资产负债表的大幅扩张意味着美联储银行持有的银行准备金也同样大幅增长。<b>监管救济到期将使8个GSIB的杠杆敞口增加约2.1万亿美元。此外，TGA的减少和持续的量化宽松可能会在2021年为系统再增加约2.35万亿美元的存款。</b>虽然3月31日豁免到期不会对GSIB产生直接影响，但全年杠杆资产的持续增加将增加长期债务(LTD)和优先要求。在这里，摩根大通持乐观观点，并写道<b>“即使是‘最坏’的发行情况也是非常可控的，LTD需要350亿美元来满足TLAC要求，优先需求为150-200亿美元，以将全行业SLR维持在5.6%。</b></blockquote></p><p>The constraint is greater at the bank entity, where the capacity to grow leverage exposure to be ~$765bn at 6.2% SLR.\"Goldman's take was more troubling: the bank estimated that under the continued QE regime, there would be a shortfall of some $2 trillion in reserve capacity, mainly in the form of deposits which the banks would be unable to accept as part of ongoing QE (much more in Goldman'sfull take of the SLR quandary).</p><p><blockquote>银行实体的限制更大，其杠杆敞口增加的能力约为7,650亿美元，SLR为6.2%。”高盛的观点更令人不安：该行估计，在持续的量化宽松制度下，储备能力将出现约2万亿美元的缺口，主要是银行无法接受的存款形式，作为正在进行的量化宽松的一部分（高盛对SLR困境的全面理解更是如此）。</blockquote></p><p><b>So what happens next?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那么接下来会发生什么呢？</b></blockquote></p><p>Addressing this topic, yesterday Curvature's Scott Skyrm wrote that \"<i>the largest banks are enjoying much larger balance sheets, but there are political factors in Washington that are against an extension of the exemption.... Here are a couple of scenarios and their implications on the Repo market</i>:</p><p><blockquote>针对这个话题，昨天Curvature的Scott Skyrm写道“<i>最大的银行享有更大的资产负债表，但华盛顿有政治因素反对延长豁免....以下是几种情况及其对回购市场的影响</i>：</blockquote></p><p>The exemption is extended 3 months or 6 months - No impact on the Repo market. It's already fully priced-in.The exemption is continued for reserves, but ended for Treasurys. <b>Since large banks are the largest cash providers in the Repo market, less cash is intermediated into the market and Repo rates rise. Volatility increases as Repo assets move from the largest banks to the other Repo market participants.The exemption is ended for both reserves and Treasurys. Same as above.</b>In other words, Skyrm has a relatively downbeat view, warning that \"since large banks are the largest cash providers in the Repo market, less cash is intermediated into the market and Repo rates rise.\" Additionally, volatility is likely to increase as repo assets move from the largest banks to the other Repo market participants...</p><p><blockquote>豁免延长3个月或6个月——对回购市场没有影响。它已经完全定价了。准备金的豁免继续，但国债的豁免结束。<b>由于大型银行是回购市场上最大的现金提供者，因此进入市场的现金减少，回购利率上升。随着回购资产从最大的银行转移到其他回购市场参与者，波动性会增加。储备和国库的豁免均终止。同上。</b>换句话说，Skyrm持相对悲观的观点，警告称“由于大型银行是回购市场上最大的现金提供者，因此进入市场的现金减少，回购利率上升。”此外，随着回购资产从最大的银行转移到其他回购市场参与者，波动性可能会增加...</blockquote></p><p>Perhaps a bit too draconian? Well, last week, JPMorgan laid out 5 scenarios for SLR, of which two predicted the end of SLR relief on March 31, as follow:</p><p><blockquote>也许有点太严厉了？上周，摩根大通为SLR制定了5种情景，其中两种预测SLR救济将于3月31日结束，具体如下：</blockquote></p><p><u><b>3. Relief ends March 31, banks fully raise capital</b></u> <b>Impact on BanksRatesFront-End Rates</b> <u><b>4. Relief ends March 31, banks raise capital &amp; de-lever</b></u> <b>Impact on BanksRatesFront-End Rates</b>Going back to Zoltan, let's recallthat the repo gurualso cautioned that \"ending the exemption of reserves and Treasuries from the calculation of the SLR may mean that U.S. banks will turn away deposits and reserves on the margin (not Treasuries) to leave more room for market-making activities,<b>and these flows will swell further money funds’ inflows coming from TGA drawdowns.</b>\"</p><p><blockquote><u><b>3.纾困3月31日结束银行全面融资</b></u><b>对银行利率的影响前端利率</b><u><b>4.纾困3月31日结束，银行增资去杠杆</b></u><b>对银行利率的影响前端利率</b>回到Zoltan，让我们回想一下，这位回购大师还警告说，“结束准备金和国债在SLR计算中的豁免可能意味着美国银行将拒绝保证金（而不是国债）的存款和准备金，为市场留出更多空间。做市活动，<b>这些资金流动将进一步增加来自TGA提款的货币基金流入。</b>\"</blockquote></p><p>More importantly, Zoltan does not expect broad chaos in repo or broader markets, and instead provides a more benign view on the negligible impact the SLR has had (and will be if it is eliminated), as he explained in a note from Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，Zoltan预计回购或更广泛的市场不会出现广泛的混乱，相反，正如他在周二的一份报告中解释的那样，他对SLR已经产生的微不足道的影响（如果它被消除，将会产生）提供了更良性的看法。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/caeeb2b1290e084832f29d61cea6a90b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"534\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">How to determine if Zoltan's benign view is correct? He concluded his note by writing that \"given that our call for a zero-to-negative FRA-OIS spread by the end of June was predicated on the end of SLR extension and an assumption that the Fed will try to fix a quantity problem with prices, not quantities, today’s adjustments mean that FRA-OIS won’t trade all the way down to zero or negative territory.\"</p><p><blockquote>如何确定Zoltan的良性观点是否正确？他在报告的最后写道，“鉴于我们到6月底FRA-OIS利差为零至负的看涨期权是基于SLR延期的结束以及美联储将尝试解决数量问题的假设价格而不是数量，今天的调整意味着FRA-OIS不会一直跌至零或负值。”</blockquote></p><p>FRA-OIS from here will be a function of how tight FX swaps will trade relative to OIS, but Treasury bills trading at deeply sub-zero rates is no longer a risk...While Bills have occasionally dipped into the negative territory on occasion, so far they have avoided a fullblown plunge into NIRP, which may be just the positive sign the market is waiting for to ease the nerves associated with the sudden and largely unexpected end of the SLR exemption.</p><p><blockquote>这里的FRA-OIS将取决于外汇掉期相对于OIS的交易紧张程度，但以远低于零利率交易的国库券不再是一种风险...虽然账单偶尔会跌入负值，但到目前为止，它们避免了全面陷入NIRP，这可能只是市场正在等待的积极信号，以缓解与SLR豁免突然且基本上出乎意料的结束相关的紧张情绪。</blockquote></p><p>* *&nbsp; *</p><p><blockquote>** *</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Finally, for those curious what the immediate market impact will be, NatWest strategist Blake Gwinn writes that the Fed announcement that they’re letting regulatory exemptions for banks expire at the end of the month \"really threads the needle and \"assuages concerns about the potential long-term impact on the markets\" as<b>the SLR \"ends it but defuses a lot of the knee-jerk market reaction” by pledging to address the current design and calibration of the supplementary leverage ratio to prevent strains from developing</b>.</p><p><blockquote>最后，对于那些好奇对市场的直接影响会是什么的人来说，国民西敏寺银行策略师布莱克·格温(Blake Gwinn)写道，美联储宣布银行监管豁免将于本月底到期，“确实是穿针引线”，缓解了人们对银行监管豁免的担忧。对市场的潜在长期影响<b>SLR承诺解决补充杠杆率的当前设计和校准问题，以防止紧张局势的发展，从而“结束了它，但化解了许多下意识的市场反应”</b>.</blockquote></p><p>“I was never worried about a day-one bank puke of Treasuries or drawdown in repo or anything like that on no renewal,” Gwinn said. “My concern was the longer run,” like as reserves continue to rise, would the SLR “become a nuisance and drag on Treasuries and spreads” Gwinn concludes that with the statement, the Fed is<b>\"really speaking to those fears and basically saying, ‘don’t worry, we are on it’.”</b></p><p><blockquote>格温说：“我从来不担心银行第一天就会吐出国债或回购提款或类似的情况。”“我担心的是，从长远来看”，随着准备金继续上升，SLR是否会“成为一个麻烦并拖累国债和利差”格温总结道，通过这份声明，美联储<b>“真正解决这些恐惧，基本上是说，‘别担心，我们正在努力’。”</b></blockquote></p><p>Well, with yields spiking to HOD in early quad-witch trading, the market sure seems quite skeptical that the Fed is on anything.</p><p><blockquote>好吧，随着收益率在早期四女巫交易中飙升至HOD，市场似乎确实对美联储的行动持怀疑态度。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed Disappoints Market, Lets SLR Relief Expire: What Happens Next<blockquote>美联储令市场失望，让SLR救助到期：接下来会发生什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-19 22:32</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>As washinted at, and discussed in depth here,the Fed decided - under political pressure from progressive Democrats such asElizabeth Warren and Sherrod Brown- to let the temporary Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) exemption expire as scheduled on March 31, the one year anniversary of the rule change.</p><p><blockquote>正如本文所暗示和深入讨论的那样，在伊丽莎白·沃伦(Elizabeth Warren)和谢罗德·布朗(Sherrod Brown)等进步民主党人的政治压力下，美联储决定让临时补充杠杆率(SLR)豁免如期于3月31日（规则变更一周年）到期。</blockquote></p><p>The federal bank regulatory agencies today announced that the temporary change to the supplementary leverage ratio, or SLR, for depository institutions issued on May 15, 2020, will expire as scheduled on March 31, 2021.The temporary change was made to provide flexibility for depository institutions to provide credit to households and businesses in light of the COVID-19 event.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b822960da59d651f093b5113cd0c3fd0\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"319\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">This outcome is theone (again) correctly predictedby former NY Fed guru Zoltan Pozsar who following the FOMC said that \"the fact that the Fed made this adjustment practically preemptively – the o/n RRP facility is not being used at the moment, so there are no capacity constraints yet, while repo and bill yields aren’t trading negative yet –<b>suggests that the Fed is “foaming the runway” for the end of SLR exemption</b>.\"</p><p><blockquote>联邦银行监管机构今天宣布，2020年5月15日发布的存款机构补充杠杆率（SLR）的临时变更将于2021年3月31日如期到期。鉴于新冠肺炎事件，这一临时变化是为了为存款机构向家庭和企业提供信贷提供灵活性。这一结果是前纽约联储大师Zoltan Pozsar（再次）正确预测的结果，他跟随FOMC表示，“事实上，美联储实际上是先发制人地做出了这一调整——目前没有使用o/n RRP工具，因此没有能力限制，而回购和票据收益率尚未为负——<b>暗示美联储正在为SLR豁免的结束“铺路”</b>.\"</blockquote></p><p>Knowing well this would be a very hot button issue for the market, the Fed published thefollowing statementto ease trader nerves, noting that while the SLR special treatment will expire on March 31, the Fed is \"inviting public comment on several potential SLR modifications\" and furthermore, \"<b>Board may need to address the current design and calibration of the SLR over time to prevent strains from developing that could both constrain economic growth and undermine financial stability</b>\" - in short, if yields spike, the Fed will re-introduce the SLR without delay:</p><p><blockquote>美联储深知这将是市场的一个非常热门的问题，因此发表了以下声明以缓解交易员的紧张情绪，并指出，虽然SLR特殊待遇将于3月31日到期，但美联储正在“邀请公众就几项潜在的SLR修改发表评论”。此外，”<b>随着时间的推移，董事会可能需要解决SLR当前的设计和校准问题，以防止出现既限制经济增长又破坏金融稳定的压力</b>”——简而言之，如果收益率飙升，美联储将立即重新引入SLR：</blockquote></p><p>The Federal Reserve Board on Friday announced that the temporary change to its supplementary leverage ratio, or SLR, for bank holding companies will expire as scheduled on March 31. <b>Additionally, the Board will shortly seek comment on measures to adjust the SLR. The Board will take appropriate actions to assure that any changes to the SLR do not erode the overall strength of bank capital requirements.</b>To ease strains in the Treasury market resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic and to promote lending to households and businesses, the Board temporarily modified the SLR last year to exclude U.S. Treasury securities and central bank reserves. Since that time, the Treasury market has stabilized. <b>However, because of recent growth in the supply of central bank reserves and the issuance of Treasury securities, the Board may need to address the current design and calibration of the SLR over time to prevent strains from developing that could both constrain economic growth and undermine financial stability.To ensure that the SLR—which was established in 2014 as an additional capital requirement—remains effective in an environment of higher reserves, the Board will soon be inviting public comment on several potential SLR modifications.</b>The proposal and comments will contribute to ongoing discussions with the Department of the Treasury and other regulators on future work to ensure the resiliency of the Treasury market.The Fed's soothing wods notwithstanding,<b>having been primed for a favorable outcome, the Fed's disappointing announcement was hardly the news traders were hoping for and stocks tumbled...</b></p><p><blockquote>美联储周五宣布，银行控股公司补充杠杆率（SLR）的临时变化将于3月31日如期到期。<b>此外，董事会将很快就调整SLR的措施征求意见。董事会将采取适当行动，确保SLR的任何变化不会削弱银行资本要求的整体实力。</b>为了缓解COVID-19大流行造成的国债市场压力并促进对家庭和企业的贷款，董事会去年暂时修改了SLR，将美国国债和央行储备排除在外。从那时起，国债市场已经稳定下来。<b>然而，由于最近中央银行储备供应和国债发行的增长，理事会可能需要随着时间的推移解决SLR的当前设计和校准问题，以防止出现既限制经济增长又破坏金融稳定的压力。为了确保SLR（2014年作为额外资本要求而设立）在准备金较高的环境下保持有效，董事会将很快就几项潜在的SLR修改征求公众意见。</b>该提案和评论将有助于与财政部和其他监管机构就未来工作进行持续讨论，以确保国债市场的弹性。尽管美联储的WOD令人宽慰，<b>在为有利的结果做好准备后，美联储令人失望的声明几乎不是交易员所希望的消息，股市暴跌...</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c341c3843a5031cd1599c2c89e198050\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"305\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Bond yields spiked...</p><p><blockquote>债券收益率飙升...</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14173c1ce587fb45efe4c30ecc1dfbab\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"284\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... while the stock of JPM, which is the most exposed bank to SLR relief (as noted yesterday in \"Facing Up To JP Morgan's Leverage Relief Threats\")...</p><p><blockquote>...而摩根大通的股票是受SLR救济影响最大的银行（正如昨天在“面对摩根大通的杠杆救济威胁”中所指出的）...</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32811183fba3dbddf1c440836298c7f3\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">.... slumped.</p><p><blockquote>....萎靡不振。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fba41463f15e79d2b8436cdd6a526fc\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"306\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In case you've been living under a rock, here's why you should care about the SLR decision: First, for those whomissed our primer on the issue, some background from JPM (ironically the one bank that has the most to lose from the Fed's decision) the bottom line is that without SLR relief,<b>banks may have to delever, raise new capital, halt buybacks, sell preferred stock, turn down deposits and generally push back on reserves (not necessarily all of these, and not in that order) just as the Fed is injecting hundreds of billions of reserves into the market as the Treasury depletes its TGA account.</b></p><p><blockquote>如果您一直生活在岩石下，以下是您应该关心SLR决定的原因：首先，对于那些错过了我们关于这个问题的入门知识的人来说，摩根大通的一些背景（具有讽刺意味的是，这是一家从美联储损失最大的银行）的决定）底线是，如果没有SLR救济，<b>银行可能不得不去杠杆化、筹集新资本、停止回购、出售优先股、拒绝存款并普遍减少准备金（不一定是所有这些，也不是按这个顺序），就像美联储向市场注入数千亿美元一样随着财政部耗尽其TGA账户。</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>The massive expansion of the Fed’s balance that has occurred implied an equally massive growth in bank reserves held at Federal Reserve banks. <b>The expiration of the regulatory relief would add ~$2.1tn of leverage exposure across the 8 GSIBs. As well, TGA reduction and continued QE could add another ~$2.35tn of deposits to the system during 2021.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/392342c2f3e1dd008b2276172a9b3ecf\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"253\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">While the expiry of the carve-out on March 31 would not have an immediate impact on GSIBs, the continued increase in leverage assets throughout the course of the year would increase long-term debt (LTD) and preferred requirements. Here, JPM takes an optimistic view and writes that<b>\"even the “worst” case issuance scenario as very manageable, with LTD needs of $35bn for TLAC requirements and preferred needs of $15-$20bn to maintain the industry-wide SLR at 5.6%.</b></p><p><blockquote>美联储资产负债表的大幅扩张意味着美联储银行持有的银行准备金也同样大幅增长。<b>监管救济到期将使8个GSIB的杠杆敞口增加约2.1万亿美元。此外，TGA的减少和持续的量化宽松可能会在2021年为系统再增加约2.35万亿美元的存款。</b>虽然3月31日豁免到期不会对GSIB产生直接影响，但全年杠杆资产的持续增加将增加长期债务(LTD)和优先要求。在这里，摩根大通持乐观观点，并写道<b>“即使是‘最坏’的发行情况也是非常可控的，LTD需要350亿美元来满足TLAC要求，优先需求为150-200亿美元，以将全行业SLR维持在5.6%。</b></blockquote></p><p>The constraint is greater at the bank entity, where the capacity to grow leverage exposure to be ~$765bn at 6.2% SLR.\"Goldman's take was more troubling: the bank estimated that under the continued QE regime, there would be a shortfall of some $2 trillion in reserve capacity, mainly in the form of deposits which the banks would be unable to accept as part of ongoing QE (much more in Goldman'sfull take of the SLR quandary).</p><p><blockquote>银行实体的限制更大，其杠杆敞口增加的能力约为7,650亿美元，SLR为6.2%。”高盛的观点更令人不安：该行估计，在持续的量化宽松制度下，储备能力将出现约2万亿美元的缺口，主要是银行无法接受的存款形式，作为正在进行的量化宽松的一部分（高盛对SLR困境的全面理解更是如此）。</blockquote></p><p><b>So what happens next?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那么接下来会发生什么呢？</b></blockquote></p><p>Addressing this topic, yesterday Curvature's Scott Skyrm wrote that \"<i>the largest banks are enjoying much larger balance sheets, but there are political factors in Washington that are against an extension of the exemption.... Here are a couple of scenarios and their implications on the Repo market</i>:</p><p><blockquote>针对这个话题，昨天Curvature的Scott Skyrm写道“<i>最大的银行享有更大的资产负债表，但华盛顿有政治因素反对延长豁免....以下是几种情况及其对回购市场的影响</i>：</blockquote></p><p>The exemption is extended 3 months or 6 months - No impact on the Repo market. It's already fully priced-in.The exemption is continued for reserves, but ended for Treasurys. <b>Since large banks are the largest cash providers in the Repo market, less cash is intermediated into the market and Repo rates rise. Volatility increases as Repo assets move from the largest banks to the other Repo market participants.The exemption is ended for both reserves and Treasurys. Same as above.</b>In other words, Skyrm has a relatively downbeat view, warning that \"since large banks are the largest cash providers in the Repo market, less cash is intermediated into the market and Repo rates rise.\" Additionally, volatility is likely to increase as repo assets move from the largest banks to the other Repo market participants...</p><p><blockquote>豁免延长3个月或6个月——对回购市场没有影响。它已经完全定价了。准备金的豁免继续，但国债的豁免结束。<b>由于大型银行是回购市场上最大的现金提供者，因此进入市场的现金减少，回购利率上升。随着回购资产从最大的银行转移到其他回购市场参与者，波动性会增加。储备和国库的豁免均终止。同上。</b>换句话说，Skyrm持相对悲观的观点，警告称“由于大型银行是回购市场上最大的现金提供者，因此进入市场的现金减少，回购利率上升。”此外，随着回购资产从最大的银行转移到其他回购市场参与者，波动性可能会增加...</blockquote></p><p>Perhaps a bit too draconian? Well, last week, JPMorgan laid out 5 scenarios for SLR, of which two predicted the end of SLR relief on March 31, as follow:</p><p><blockquote>也许有点太严厉了？上周，摩根大通为SLR制定了5种情景，其中两种预测SLR救济将于3月31日结束，具体如下：</blockquote></p><p><u><b>3. Relief ends March 31, banks fully raise capital</b></u> <b>Impact on BanksRatesFront-End Rates</b> <u><b>4. Relief ends March 31, banks raise capital &amp; de-lever</b></u> <b>Impact on BanksRatesFront-End Rates</b>Going back to Zoltan, let's recallthat the repo gurualso cautioned that \"ending the exemption of reserves and Treasuries from the calculation of the SLR may mean that U.S. banks will turn away deposits and reserves on the margin (not Treasuries) to leave more room for market-making activities,<b>and these flows will swell further money funds’ inflows coming from TGA drawdowns.</b>\"</p><p><blockquote><u><b>3.纾困3月31日结束银行全面融资</b></u><b>对银行利率的影响前端利率</b><u><b>4.纾困3月31日结束，银行增资去杠杆</b></u><b>对银行利率的影响前端利率</b>回到Zoltan，让我们回想一下，这位回购大师还警告说，“结束准备金和国债在SLR计算中的豁免可能意味着美国银行将拒绝保证金（而不是国债）的存款和准备金，为市场留出更多空间。做市活动，<b>这些资金流动将进一步增加来自TGA提款的货币基金流入。</b>\"</blockquote></p><p>More importantly, Zoltan does not expect broad chaos in repo or broader markets, and instead provides a more benign view on the negligible impact the SLR has had (and will be if it is eliminated), as he explained in a note from Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，Zoltan预计回购或更广泛的市场不会出现广泛的混乱，相反，正如他在周二的一份报告中解释的那样，他对SLR已经产生的微不足道的影响（如果它被消除，将会产生）提供了更良性的看法。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/caeeb2b1290e084832f29d61cea6a90b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"534\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">How to determine if Zoltan's benign view is correct? He concluded his note by writing that \"given that our call for a zero-to-negative FRA-OIS spread by the end of June was predicated on the end of SLR extension and an assumption that the Fed will try to fix a quantity problem with prices, not quantities, today’s adjustments mean that FRA-OIS won’t trade all the way down to zero or negative territory.\"</p><p><blockquote>如何确定Zoltan的良性观点是否正确？他在报告的最后写道，“鉴于我们到6月底FRA-OIS利差为零至负的看涨期权是基于SLR延期的结束以及美联储将尝试解决数量问题的假设价格而不是数量，今天的调整意味着FRA-OIS不会一直跌至零或负值。”</blockquote></p><p>FRA-OIS from here will be a function of how tight FX swaps will trade relative to OIS, but Treasury bills trading at deeply sub-zero rates is no longer a risk...While Bills have occasionally dipped into the negative territory on occasion, so far they have avoided a fullblown plunge into NIRP, which may be just the positive sign the market is waiting for to ease the nerves associated with the sudden and largely unexpected end of the SLR exemption.</p><p><blockquote>这里的FRA-OIS将取决于外汇掉期相对于OIS的交易紧张程度，但以远低于零利率交易的国库券不再是一种风险...虽然账单偶尔会跌入负值，但到目前为止，它们避免了全面陷入NIRP，这可能只是市场正在等待的积极信号，以缓解与SLR豁免突然且基本上出乎意料的结束相关的紧张情绪。</blockquote></p><p>* *&nbsp; *</p><p><blockquote>** *</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Finally, for those curious what the immediate market impact will be, NatWest strategist Blake Gwinn writes that the Fed announcement that they’re letting regulatory exemptions for banks expire at the end of the month \"really threads the needle and \"assuages concerns about the potential long-term impact on the markets\" as<b>the SLR \"ends it but defuses a lot of the knee-jerk market reaction” by pledging to address the current design and calibration of the supplementary leverage ratio to prevent strains from developing</b>.</p><p><blockquote>最后，对于那些好奇对市场的直接影响会是什么的人来说，国民西敏寺银行策略师布莱克·格温(Blake Gwinn)写道，美联储宣布银行监管豁免将于本月底到期，“确实是穿针引线”，缓解了人们对银行监管豁免的担忧。对市场的潜在长期影响<b>SLR承诺解决补充杠杆率的当前设计和校准问题，以防止紧张局势的发展，从而“结束了它，但化解了许多下意识的市场反应”</b>.</blockquote></p><p>“I was never worried about a day-one bank puke of Treasuries or drawdown in repo or anything like that on no renewal,” Gwinn said. “My concern was the longer run,” like as reserves continue to rise, would the SLR “become a nuisance and drag on Treasuries and spreads” Gwinn concludes that with the statement, the Fed is<b>\"really speaking to those fears and basically saying, ‘don’t worry, we are on it’.”</b></p><p><blockquote>格温说：“我从来不担心银行第一天就会吐出国债或回购提款或类似的情况。”“我担心的是，从长远来看”，随着准备金继续上升，SLR是否会“成为一个麻烦并拖累国债和利差”格温总结道，通过这份声明，美联储<b>“真正解决这些恐惧，基本上是说，‘别担心，我们正在努力’。”</b></blockquote></p><p>Well, with yields spiking to HOD in early quad-witch trading, the market sure seems quite skeptical that the Fed is on anything.</p><p><blockquote>好吧，随着收益率在早期四女巫交易中飙升至HOD，市场似乎确实对美联储的行动持怀疑态度。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bopnds-tank-after-fed-lets-slr-relief-expire\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bopnds-tank-after-fed-lets-slr-relief-expire","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199154789","content_text":"As washinted at, and discussed in depth here,the Fed decided - under political pressure from progressive Democrats such asElizabeth Warren and Sherrod Brown- to let the temporary Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) exemption expire as scheduled on March 31, the one year anniversary of the rule change.The federal bank regulatory agencies today announced that the temporary change to the supplementary leverage ratio, or SLR, for depository institutions issued on May 15, 2020, will expire as scheduled on March 31, 2021.The temporary change was made to provide flexibility for depository institutions to provide credit to households and businesses in light of the COVID-19 event.This outcome is theone (again) correctly predictedby former NY Fed guru Zoltan Pozsar who following the FOMC said that \"the fact that the Fed made this adjustment practically preemptively – the o/n RRP facility is not being used at the moment, so there are no capacity constraints yet, while repo and bill yields aren’t trading negative yet –suggests that the Fed is “foaming the runway” for the end of SLR exemption.\"Knowing well this would be a very hot button issue for the market, the Fed published thefollowing statementto ease trader nerves, noting that while the SLR special treatment will expire on March 31, the Fed is \"inviting public comment on several potential SLR modifications\" and furthermore, \"Board may need to address the current design and calibration of the SLR over time to prevent strains from developing that could both constrain economic growth and undermine financial stability\" - in short, if yields spike, the Fed will re-introduce the SLR without delay:The Federal Reserve Board on Friday announced that the temporary change to its supplementary leverage ratio, or SLR, for bank holding companies will expire as scheduled on March 31. Additionally, the Board will shortly seek comment on measures to adjust the SLR. The Board will take appropriate actions to assure that any changes to the SLR do not erode the overall strength of bank capital requirements.To ease strains in the Treasury market resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic and to promote lending to households and businesses, the Board temporarily modified the SLR last year to exclude U.S. Treasury securities and central bank reserves. Since that time, the Treasury market has stabilized. However, because of recent growth in the supply of central bank reserves and the issuance of Treasury securities, the Board may need to address the current design and calibration of the SLR over time to prevent strains from developing that could both constrain economic growth and undermine financial stability.To ensure that the SLR—which was established in 2014 as an additional capital requirement—remains effective in an environment of higher reserves, the Board will soon be inviting public comment on several potential SLR modifications.The proposal and comments will contribute to ongoing discussions with the Department of the Treasury and other regulators on future work to ensure the resiliency of the Treasury market.The Fed's soothing wods notwithstanding,having been primed for a favorable outcome, the Fed's disappointing announcement was hardly the news traders were hoping for and stocks tumbled...Bond yields spiked...... while the stock of JPM, which is the most exposed bank to SLR relief (as noted yesterday in \"Facing Up To JP Morgan's Leverage Relief Threats\")....... slumped.In case you've been living under a rock, here's why you should care about the SLR decision: First, for those whomissed our primer on the issue, some background from JPM (ironically the one bank that has the most to lose from the Fed's decision) the bottom line is that without SLR relief,banks may have to delever, raise new capital, halt buybacks, sell preferred stock, turn down deposits and generally push back on reserves (not necessarily all of these, and not in that order) just as the Fed is injecting hundreds of billions of reserves into the market as the Treasury depletes its TGA account.The massive expansion of the Fed’s balance that has occurred implied an equally massive growth in bank reserves held at Federal Reserve banks. The expiration of the regulatory relief would add ~$2.1tn of leverage exposure across the 8 GSIBs. As well, TGA reduction and continued QE could add another ~$2.35tn of deposits to the system during 2021.While the expiry of the carve-out on March 31 would not have an immediate impact on GSIBs, the continued increase in leverage assets throughout the course of the year would increase long-term debt (LTD) and preferred requirements. Here, JPM takes an optimistic view and writes that\"even the “worst” case issuance scenario as very manageable, with LTD needs of $35bn for TLAC requirements and preferred needs of $15-$20bn to maintain the industry-wide SLR at 5.6%.The constraint is greater at the bank entity, where the capacity to grow leverage exposure to be ~$765bn at 6.2% SLR.\"Goldman's take was more troubling: the bank estimated that under the continued QE regime, there would be a shortfall of some $2 trillion in reserve capacity, mainly in the form of deposits which the banks would be unable to accept as part of ongoing QE (much more in Goldman'sfull take of the SLR quandary).So what happens next?Addressing this topic, yesterday Curvature's Scott Skyrm wrote that \"the largest banks are enjoying much larger balance sheets, but there are political factors in Washington that are against an extension of the exemption.... Here are a couple of scenarios and their implications on the Repo market:The exemption is extended 3 months or 6 months - No impact on the Repo market. It's already fully priced-in.The exemption is continued for reserves, but ended for Treasurys. Since large banks are the largest cash providers in the Repo market, less cash is intermediated into the market and Repo rates rise. Volatility increases as Repo assets move from the largest banks to the other Repo market participants.The exemption is ended for both reserves and Treasurys. Same as above.In other words, Skyrm has a relatively downbeat view, warning that \"since large banks are the largest cash providers in the Repo market, less cash is intermediated into the market and Repo rates rise.\" Additionally, volatility is likely to increase as repo assets move from the largest banks to the other Repo market participants...Perhaps a bit too draconian? Well, last week, JPMorgan laid out 5 scenarios for SLR, of which two predicted the end of SLR relief on March 31, as follow:3. Relief ends March 31, banks fully raise capital Impact on BanksRatesFront-End Rates 4. Relief ends March 31, banks raise capital & de-lever Impact on BanksRatesFront-End RatesGoing back to Zoltan, let's recallthat the repo gurualso cautioned that \"ending the exemption of reserves and Treasuries from the calculation of the SLR may mean that U.S. banks will turn away deposits and reserves on the margin (not Treasuries) to leave more room for market-making activities,and these flows will swell further money funds’ inflows coming from TGA drawdowns.\"More importantly, Zoltan does not expect broad chaos in repo or broader markets, and instead provides a more benign view on the negligible impact the SLR has had (and will be if it is eliminated), as he explained in a note from Tuesday.How to determine if Zoltan's benign view is correct? He concluded his note by writing that \"given that our call for a zero-to-negative FRA-OIS spread by the end of June was predicated on the end of SLR extension and an assumption that the Fed will try to fix a quantity problem with prices, not quantities, today’s adjustments mean that FRA-OIS won’t trade all the way down to zero or negative territory.\"FRA-OIS from here will be a function of how tight FX swaps will trade relative to OIS, but Treasury bills trading at deeply sub-zero rates is no longer a risk...While Bills have occasionally dipped into the negative territory on occasion, so far they have avoided a fullblown plunge into NIRP, which may be just the positive sign the market is waiting for to ease the nerves associated with the sudden and largely unexpected end of the SLR exemption.* *  *Finally, for those curious what the immediate market impact will be, NatWest strategist Blake Gwinn writes that the Fed announcement that they’re letting regulatory exemptions for banks expire at the end of the month \"really threads the needle and \"assuages concerns about the potential long-term impact on the markets\" asthe SLR \"ends it but defuses a lot of the knee-jerk market reaction” by pledging to address the current design and calibration of the supplementary leverage ratio to prevent strains from developing.“I was never worried about a day-one bank puke of Treasuries or drawdown in repo or anything like that on no renewal,” Gwinn said. “My concern was the longer run,” like as reserves continue to rise, would the SLR “become a nuisance and drag on Treasuries and spreads” Gwinn concludes that with the statement, the Fed is\"really speaking to those fears and basically saying, ‘don’t worry, we are on it’.”Well, with yields spiking to HOD in early quad-witch trading, the market sure seems quite skeptical that the Fed is on anything.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":606,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":110803616,"gmtCreate":1622435155035,"gmtModify":1634101488039,"author":{"id":"3576118384681891","authorId":"3576118384681891","name":"valueTrader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b20c817213be1647e2dee23f5d62e0d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576118384681891","idStr":"3576118384681891"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"EV companies milking the market","listText":"EV companies milking the market","text":"EV companies milking the market","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/110803616","repostId":"1134530181","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1134530181","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622432149,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1134530181?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-31 11:35","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Tesla Rival Rivian Selects Underwriters For IPO, Could Seek $70B Valuation<blockquote>特斯拉竞争对手Rivian选择IPO承销商，可能寻求70B美元估值</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134530181","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Amazon.com, Inc AMZN 0.22%-backed Rivian Automotive Inc has selected underwriters for an initial pub","content":"<p><div> Amazon.com, Inc AMZN 0.22%-backed Rivian Automotive Inc has selected underwriters for an initial public offering, Bloomberg reports. What Happened:The California-based automaker Rivian Automotive Inc,...</p><p><blockquote><div>据彭博社报道，亚马逊公司AMZN 0.22%支持的Rivian汽车公司已选择首次公开募股的承销商。发生了什么：总部位于加州的汽车制造商Rivian汽车公司，...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/05/21351615/tesla-rival-rivian-selects-underwriters-for-ipo-could-seek-70b-valuation\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/05/21351615/tesla-rival-rivian-selects-underwriters-for-ipo-could-seek-70b-valuation\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Rival Rivian Selects Underwriters For IPO, Could Seek $70B Valuation<blockquote>特斯拉竞争对手Rivian选择IPO承销商，可能寻求70B美元估值</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Rival Rivian Selects Underwriters For IPO, Could Seek $70B Valuation<blockquote>特斯拉竞争对手Rivian选择IPO承销商，可能寻求70B美元估值</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Benzinga</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-31 11:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Amazon.com, Inc AMZN 0.22%-backed Rivian Automotive Inc has selected underwriters for an initial public offering, Bloomberg reports. What Happened:The California-based automaker Rivian Automotive Inc,...</p><p><blockquote><div>据彭博社报道，亚马逊公司AMZN 0.22%支持的Rivian汽车公司已选择首次公开募股的承销商。发生了什么：总部位于加州的汽车制造商Rivian汽车公司，...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/05/21351615/tesla-rival-rivian-selects-underwriters-for-ipo-could-seek-70b-valuation\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/05/21351615/tesla-rival-rivian-selects-underwriters-for-ipo-could-seek-70b-valuation\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/05/21351615/tesla-rival-rivian-selects-underwriters-for-ipo-could-seek-70b-valuation\">Benzinga</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/05/21351615/tesla-rival-rivian-selects-underwriters-for-ipo-could-seek-70b-valuation","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1134530181","content_text":"Amazon.com, Inc AMZN 0.22%-backed Rivian Automotive Inc has selected underwriters for an initial public offering, Bloomberg reports.\nWhat Happened:The California-based automaker Rivian Automotive Inc, which is also backed by Ford Motor CompanyF 2.42%, could seek a valuation of about $70 billion when it goes public, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg.\nRivian is reportedly working with advisers including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. GS 0.15%, JPMorgan Chase & Co. JPM 0.01%and Morgan Stanley MS 0.62%.\nAccording to Bloomberg's sources, no final decision has been made, and the details of its potential listing could change.\nWhy It Matters: Tesla IncTSLA 0.89%rival Rivian was worth $27.6 billion in January when it raised $2.65 billion from T Rowe Price Group Inc.TROW 0.6%, Amazon and Fidelity Investments.\nThe company aims to produce tens of thousands of vehicles at its Illinois plant over the next year.\nIn the recent past, the company has reportedly experienced delays in receiving parts due to backlogs at U.S. ports.\nMultiple EV companies have gone public of late through mergers with special purpose acquisition companies.\nIn February, the fuel cell truck startup Hyzon Motors announced a merger with Decarbonization Plus Acquisition CorporationDCRB 0.1%.\nLast year, Nikola Corporation NKLA 3.42%merged with VectoIQ in a SPAC deal that raised more than $700 million.\nCalifornia-based Lucid Motors is rumored to be exploring a merger with Churchill Capital Corp IV CCIV 0.8%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":542,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":191609728,"gmtCreate":1620872484664,"gmtModify":1634195700133,"author":{"id":"3576118384681891","authorId":"3576118384681891","name":"valueTrader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b20c817213be1647e2dee23f5d62e0d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576118384681891","idStr":"3576118384681891"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"This time, inflation is real.","listText":"This time, inflation is real.","text":"This time, inflation is real.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/191609728","repostId":"1107276813","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107276813","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620870566,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1107276813?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-13 09:49","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Chocolate’s About to Get More Expensive<blockquote>巧克力即将变得更加昂贵</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107276813","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- The meteoric rise in palm oil prices is poised to inflate costs for everyone from res","content":"<p>(Bloomberg) -- The meteoric rise in palm oil prices is poised to inflate costs for everyone from restaurants to confectionery and cosmetic manufacturers, and could potentially change consumption patterns.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）-棕榈油价格的迅速上涨将增加从餐馆到糖果和化妆品制造商的每个人的成本，并可能改变消费模式。</blockquote></p><p> The world’s most consumed edible oil has surged more than 120% in the past year and burst through 4,500 ringgit ($1,091) a ton to a record on Wednesday. The tropical oil, which is found in products as diverse as chocolate, pastries, soaps, lipstick and biofuel, and is widely used in Asian restaurants, has been swept up in the global commodity rally as farm crops soar on weather worries and China’s crop-buying spree.</p><p><blockquote>这种全球消费量最大的食用油在过去一年中飙升了120%以上，周三突破了每吨4,500林吉特（1,091美元），创下历史新高。这种热带油存在于巧克力、糕点、肥皂、口红和生物燃料等多种产品中，并广泛用于亚洲餐馆。随着天气担忧和中国农作物收购热潮导致农作物飙升，这种热带油在全球大宗商品涨势中被席卷。</blockquote></p><p> Palm oil, which is mainly produced in Indonesia and Malaysia, is so popular that one study estimates about half of all packaged products found in supermarkets contain it. While there are alternatives -- like soybean oil and sunflower oil -- prices for those have been rising too, increasing concern over global food inflation, which is already at the highest in seven years.</p><p><blockquote>棕榈油主要产于印度尼西亚和马来西亚，非常受欢迎，一项研究估计超市中发现的所有包装产品中约有一半含有棕榈油。虽然有豆油和葵花籽油等替代品，但这些替代品的价格也在上涨，引发了人们对全球食品通胀的担忧，全球食品通胀已经达到七年来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re in uncharted waters at these levels,” said Marcello Cultrera, an institutional sales manager and broker at Phillip Futures in Kuala Lumpur. “The high prices will mainly affect costs of fast-moving consumer goods’ manufacturers in the short term.”</p><p><blockquote>吉隆坡辉立期货(Phillip Futures)机构销售经理兼经纪人马塞洛·库特雷拉(Marcello Cultrera)表示：“在这些水平上，我们处于未知水域。”“短期内，高价格将主要影响快速消费品制造商的成本。”</blockquote></p><p> The biggest importer is India, followed by China. While the oil faces headwinds in Europe and the U.S. over concerns its cultivation causes deforestation, the rally in edible oil prices could add to costs at companies such as Unilever, which purchases about 1 million tons of palm oil, palm kernel oil and derivatives annually for use in products such as ice cream, cosmetics and soaps, making it one of the world’s largest buyers.</p><p><blockquote>最大的进口国是印度，其次是中国。尽管由于担心其种植会导致森林砍伐，这种油在欧洲和美国面临阻力，但食用油价格的上涨可能会增加联合利华等公司的成本，联合利华每年购买约100万吨棕榈油、棕榈仁油和衍生物用于冰淇淋、化妆品和肥皂等产品，使其成为全球最大的买家之一。</blockquote></p><p> Consumption in India is especially at risk because of a drop in demand outside the home and the impact of the world’s worst Covid-19 outbreak, according to Atul Chaturvedi, president of Solvent Extractors’ Association. The country is a very price-sensitive market and high prices are hurting demand, he said.</p><p><blockquote>溶剂提取器协会主席阿图尔·查图维迪(Atul Chaturvedi)表示，由于家庭以外的需求下降以及世界上最严重的Covid-19疫情的影响，印度的消费尤其面临风险。他说，该国是一个对价格非常敏感的市场，高价格正在损害需求。</blockquote></p><p> Companies wanting to shift out of palm to other oils may find opportunities limited due to higher costs whichever option they choose. Soybean oil, the second-most consumed oil, is up 150% in the past year, and sunflower oil prices from Ukraine have more than doubled.</p><p><blockquote>想要从棕榈油转向其他油的公司可能会发现，无论他们选择哪种方式，由于成本较高，机会都有限。消费第二多的大豆油在过去一年中上涨了150%，来自乌克兰的葵花籽油价格上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> “The rise in prices to all-time highs is bound to affect consumer habits,” said Gnanasekar Thiagarajan, head of trading and hedging strategies at Kaleesuwari Intercontinental. “Consumption is expected to go down, and if this uptrend in prices is maintained, there could be a shift in food habits that could altogether change food preferences.”</p><p><blockquote>Kaleesuwari Intercontinental交易和对冲策略主管Gnanasekar Thiagarajan表示：“价格上涨至历史新高势必会影响消费者的习惯。”“预计消费将会下降，如果价格上涨趋势持续下去，饮食习惯可能会发生转变，从而彻底改变食物偏好。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Chocolate’s About to Get More Expensive<blockquote>巧克力即将变得更加昂贵</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChocolate’s About to Get More Expensive<blockquote>巧克力即将变得更加昂贵</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Bloomberg</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-13 09:49</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Bloomberg) -- The meteoric rise in palm oil prices is poised to inflate costs for everyone from restaurants to confectionery and cosmetic manufacturers, and could potentially change consumption patterns.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）-棕榈油价格的迅速上涨将增加从餐馆到糖果和化妆品制造商的每个人的成本，并可能改变消费模式。</blockquote></p><p> The world’s most consumed edible oil has surged more than 120% in the past year and burst through 4,500 ringgit ($1,091) a ton to a record on Wednesday. The tropical oil, which is found in products as diverse as chocolate, pastries, soaps, lipstick and biofuel, and is widely used in Asian restaurants, has been swept up in the global commodity rally as farm crops soar on weather worries and China’s crop-buying spree.</p><p><blockquote>这种全球消费量最大的食用油在过去一年中飙升了120%以上，周三突破了每吨4,500林吉特（1,091美元），创下历史新高。这种热带油存在于巧克力、糕点、肥皂、口红和生物燃料等多种产品中，并广泛用于亚洲餐馆。随着天气担忧和中国农作物收购热潮导致农作物飙升，这种热带油在全球大宗商品涨势中被席卷。</blockquote></p><p> Palm oil, which is mainly produced in Indonesia and Malaysia, is so popular that one study estimates about half of all packaged products found in supermarkets contain it. While there are alternatives -- like soybean oil and sunflower oil -- prices for those have been rising too, increasing concern over global food inflation, which is already at the highest in seven years.</p><p><blockquote>棕榈油主要产于印度尼西亚和马来西亚，非常受欢迎，一项研究估计超市中发现的所有包装产品中约有一半含有棕榈油。虽然有豆油和葵花籽油等替代品，但这些替代品的价格也在上涨，引发了人们对全球食品通胀的担忧，全球食品通胀已经达到七年来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re in uncharted waters at these levels,” said Marcello Cultrera, an institutional sales manager and broker at Phillip Futures in Kuala Lumpur. “The high prices will mainly affect costs of fast-moving consumer goods’ manufacturers in the short term.”</p><p><blockquote>吉隆坡辉立期货(Phillip Futures)机构销售经理兼经纪人马塞洛·库特雷拉(Marcello Cultrera)表示：“在这些水平上，我们处于未知水域。”“短期内，高价格将主要影响快速消费品制造商的成本。”</blockquote></p><p> The biggest importer is India, followed by China. While the oil faces headwinds in Europe and the U.S. over concerns its cultivation causes deforestation, the rally in edible oil prices could add to costs at companies such as Unilever, which purchases about 1 million tons of palm oil, palm kernel oil and derivatives annually for use in products such as ice cream, cosmetics and soaps, making it one of the world’s largest buyers.</p><p><blockquote>最大的进口国是印度，其次是中国。尽管由于担心其种植会导致森林砍伐，这种油在欧洲和美国面临阻力，但食用油价格的上涨可能会增加联合利华等公司的成本，联合利华每年购买约100万吨棕榈油、棕榈仁油和衍生物用于冰淇淋、化妆品和肥皂等产品，使其成为全球最大的买家之一。</blockquote></p><p> Consumption in India is especially at risk because of a drop in demand outside the home and the impact of the world’s worst Covid-19 outbreak, according to Atul Chaturvedi, president of Solvent Extractors’ Association. The country is a very price-sensitive market and high prices are hurting demand, he said.</p><p><blockquote>溶剂提取器协会主席阿图尔·查图维迪(Atul Chaturvedi)表示，由于家庭以外的需求下降以及世界上最严重的Covid-19疫情的影响，印度的消费尤其面临风险。他说，该国是一个对价格非常敏感的市场，高价格正在损害需求。</blockquote></p><p> Companies wanting to shift out of palm to other oils may find opportunities limited due to higher costs whichever option they choose. Soybean oil, the second-most consumed oil, is up 150% in the past year, and sunflower oil prices from Ukraine have more than doubled.</p><p><blockquote>想要从棕榈油转向其他油的公司可能会发现，无论他们选择哪种方式，由于成本较高，机会都有限。消费第二多的大豆油在过去一年中上涨了150%，来自乌克兰的葵花籽油价格上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> “The rise in prices to all-time highs is bound to affect consumer habits,” said Gnanasekar Thiagarajan, head of trading and hedging strategies at Kaleesuwari Intercontinental. “Consumption is expected to go down, and if this uptrend in prices is maintained, there could be a shift in food habits that could altogether change food preferences.”</p><p><blockquote>Kaleesuwari Intercontinental交易和对冲策略主管Gnanasekar Thiagarajan表示：“价格上涨至历史新高势必会影响消费者的习惯。”“预计消费将会下降，如果价格上涨趋势持续下去，饮食习惯可能会发生转变，从而彻底改变食物偏好。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chocolate-more-expensive-094229964.html\">Bloomberg</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chocolate-more-expensive-094229964.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107276813","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- The meteoric rise in palm oil prices is poised to inflate costs for everyone from restaurants to confectionery and cosmetic manufacturers, and could potentially change consumption patterns.\nThe world’s most consumed edible oil has surged more than 120% in the past year and burst through 4,500 ringgit ($1,091) a ton to a record on Wednesday. The tropical oil, which is found in products as diverse as chocolate, pastries, soaps, lipstick and biofuel, and is widely used in Asian restaurants, has been swept up in the global commodity rally as farm crops soar on weather worries and China’s crop-buying spree.\nPalm oil, which is mainly produced in Indonesia and Malaysia, is so popular that one study estimates about half of all packaged products found in supermarkets contain it. While there are alternatives -- like soybean oil and sunflower oil -- prices for those have been rising too, increasing concern over global food inflation, which is already at the highest in seven years.\n“We’re in uncharted waters at these levels,” said Marcello Cultrera, an institutional sales manager and broker at Phillip Futures in Kuala Lumpur. “The high prices will mainly affect costs of fast-moving consumer goods’ manufacturers in the short term.”\nThe biggest importer is India, followed by China. While the oil faces headwinds in Europe and the U.S. over concerns its cultivation causes deforestation, the rally in edible oil prices could add to costs at companies such as Unilever, which purchases about 1 million tons of palm oil, palm kernel oil and derivatives annually for use in products such as ice cream, cosmetics and soaps, making it one of the world’s largest buyers.\nConsumption in India is especially at risk because of a drop in demand outside the home and the impact of the world’s worst Covid-19 outbreak, according to Atul Chaturvedi, president of Solvent Extractors’ Association. The country is a very price-sensitive market and high prices are hurting demand, he said.\nCompanies wanting to shift out of palm to other oils may find opportunities limited due to higher costs whichever option they choose. Soybean oil, the second-most consumed oil, is up 150% in the past year, and sunflower oil prices from Ukraine have more than doubled.\n“The rise in prices to all-time highs is bound to affect consumer habits,” said Gnanasekar Thiagarajan, head of trading and hedging strategies at Kaleesuwari Intercontinental. “Consumption is expected to go down, and if this uptrend in prices is maintained, there could be a shift in food habits that could altogether change food preferences.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":431,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181066393,"gmtCreate":1623367756512,"gmtModify":1631892122173,"author":{"id":"3576118384681891","authorId":"3576118384681891","name":"valueTrader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b20c817213be1647e2dee23f5d62e0d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576118384681891","idStr":"3576118384681891"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Inflation is here. Many will regret","listText":"Inflation is here. Many will regret","text":"Inflation is here. Many will regret","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181066393","repostId":"1184070773","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":533,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":116550094,"gmtCreate":1622813245318,"gmtModify":1634097770335,"author":{"id":"3576118384681891","authorId":"3576118384681891","name":"valueTrader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b20c817213be1647e2dee23f5d62e0d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576118384681891","idStr":"3576118384681891"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Obviously taking advantage of retail traders","listText":"Obviously taking advantage of retail traders","text":"Obviously taking advantage of retail traders","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/116550094","repostId":"1157381932","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":443,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150965565,"gmtCreate":1624883371357,"gmtModify":1631890250174,"author":{"id":"3576118384681891","authorId":"3576118384681891","name":"valueTrader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b20c817213be1647e2dee23f5d62e0d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576118384681891","idStr":"3576118384681891"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow, meme stocks to the moon","listText":"Wow, meme stocks to the moon","text":"Wow, meme stocks to the moon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150965565","repostId":"1195560202","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2743,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":184559663,"gmtCreate":1623719532452,"gmtModify":1631892122167,"author":{"id":"3576118384681891","authorId":"3576118384681891","name":"valueTrader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b20c817213be1647e2dee23f5d62e0d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576118384681891","idStr":"3576118384681891"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Still a good target price","listText":"Still a good target price","text":"Still a good target price","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/184559663","repostId":"1131396369","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131396369","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623718501,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1131396369?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 08:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Bull Cuts Price Target Because of Batteries. Shares Rise Anyway.<blockquote>特斯拉牛市因电池而下调目标价。无论如何，股价都会上涨。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131396369","media":"Barrons","summary":"A Tesla bull is a little less bullish Monday. Battery technology is the main reason.\nCanaccord analy","content":"<p>A Tesla bull is a little less bullish Monday. Battery technology is the main reason.</p><p><blockquote>周一，特斯拉牛市的牛市不那么乐观。电池技术是主要原因。</blockquote></p><p> Canaccord analyst Jonathan Dorsheimer threw his Tesla (ticker: TSLA) target price into reverse Monday, cutting it to $812, down $162, or 17% from $974. He maintained his Buy rating though.</p><p><blockquote>Canaccord分析师Jonathan Dorsheimer周一将特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）目标价下调至812美元，较974美元下跌162美元，即17%。不过，他维持买入评级。</blockquote></p><p> The cut isn’t having much impact on shares in Monday trading. Tesla stock is up about 1.3% to $618 a share. </p><p><blockquote>此次降息对周一交易的股价没有太大影响。特斯拉股价上涨约1.3%，至每股618美元。</blockquote></p><p> Even though he is still bullish on the company, Dorsheimer is wary about Tesla’s new batteries. In particular the larger&nbsp;4680 cell design&nbsp;which promises better charge time, longer per-charge range and lower cost.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Dorsheimer仍然看好该公司，但他对特斯拉的新电池持谨慎态度。特别是更大的4680电池设计，保证了更好的充电时间、更长的每次充电范围和更低的成本。</blockquote></p><p> The 4680 refers to a cylindrical battery with a diameter of 46 millimeters and a length of 80 millimeters. Today’s Tesla’s have 2170 batteries. That’s 21 millimeter diameter and 70 millimeter length.</p><p><blockquote>4680是指直径46毫米、长度80毫米的圆柱形电池。今天的特斯拉有2170电池。直径21毫米，长度70毫米。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla recently started delivering its&nbsp;Model S Plaid&nbsp;vehicle, billed as the fastest production car ever built. It can go zero to 60 miles per hour in under 2 seconds. But it also canceled the&nbsp;Plaid+&nbsp;which was going to have longer per-charge range partly because of the new battery design.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉最近开始交付Model S Plaid汽车，被宣传为有史以来最快的量产车。它可以在2秒内从零加速到60英里/小时。但它也取消了Plaid+，该产品每次充电的续航里程将更长，部分原因是新的电池设计。</blockquote></p><p> Dorsheimer wrote that the Plaid+ “was reportedly going to be the first to feature the new 4680 cell design.” The cancellation “signals to us the new cell format isn’t ready for production just yet, and cell production capacity constraints for energy storage products like Powerwall remain.”</p><p><blockquote>Dorsheimer写道，Plaid+“据报道将是第一款采用新4680电池设计的产品。”此次取消“向我们表明，新的电池格式尚未准备好投入生产，Powerwall等储能产品的电池产能限制仍然存在。”</blockquote></p><p> If the batteries aren’t ready yet, that’s a problem. Better batteries are a competitive advantage for electric-vehicle makers. Lower costs also allow Tesla to either charge less or make more money per car. Lower prices can expand the pool of Tesla buyers. Better profits, of course, are cheered by investors. And any battery-supply constraints could impact Tesla vehicle deliveries down the road. Wall Street expects Tesla to deliver 800,000 to 900,000 cars in 2021, up from about 500,000 cars in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>如果电池还没准备好，那就有问题了。更好的电池是电动汽车制造商的竞争优势。较低的成本也使特斯拉每辆车的收费更低或赚更多的钱。较低的价格可以扩大特斯拉买家的数量。更好的利润当然会受到投资者的欢呼。任何电池供应限制都可能影响特斯拉汽车未来的交付。华尔街预计，特斯拉2021年将交付80万至90万辆汽车，高于2020年的约50万辆。</blockquote></p><p> Dorsheimer’s target-price cut lowered the&nbsp;analyst average&nbsp;for Tesla stock to $618 a share from $623.</p><p><blockquote>多斯海默下调的目标价将分析师对特斯拉股票的平均预期从每股623美元下调至618美元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d33672c951c9eacd352a94e2f02112b\" tg-width=\"977\" tg-height=\"642\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Drops aren’t the norm recently. Tesla stock’s average analyst target price is up more than 830% from the start of 2018. The average analyst target price, however, has stopped rising since early February.</p><p><blockquote>最近跌倒并不常见。特斯拉股票的分析师平均目标价较2018年初上涨了830%以上。然而，分析师平均目标价自二月初以来已停止上涨。</blockquote></p><p> That’s also when bond yields started rising because of inflation fears. Higher bond yields hurt richly valued technology companies&nbsp;more than others&nbsp;for two reasons. Higher yields make it more costly to finance growth. It also reduces the present value of future cash flow. And growth companies generate most of their cash flow far in the future.</p><p><blockquote>这也是债券收益率因通胀担忧而开始上升的时候。债券收益率上升对估值高的科技公司的伤害比其他公司更大，原因有二。较高的收益率使得增长融资成本更高。它还减少了未来现金流的现值。成长型公司的大部分现金流是在遥远的未来产生的。</blockquote></p><p> Investors are looking&nbsp;for a catalyst&nbsp;to snap Tesla stock out of its recent range. First quarter earnings didn’t do it. Neither has the launch of the Plaid. Production from new facilities in Texas and Germany, due to start around year end 2021, as well as the new batteries, could be what investors need.</p><p><blockquote>投资者正在寻找snap·特斯拉股票走出近期区间的催化剂。第一季度的收益没有做到这一点。格子的推出也没有。德克萨斯州和德国的新工厂将于2021年底左右开始生产，以及新电池可能正是投资者所需要的。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, they also need EV demand to stay strong and for interest rates to stay in a low, stable range.</p><p><blockquote>当然，他们还需要电动汽车需求保持强劲，利率保持在较低、稳定的范围内。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Bull Cuts Price Target Because of Batteries. Shares Rise Anyway.<blockquote>特斯拉牛市因电池而下调目标价。无论如何，股价都会上涨。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Bull Cuts Price Target Because of Batteries. Shares Rise Anyway.<blockquote>特斯拉牛市因电池而下调目标价。无论如何，股价都会上涨。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-15 08:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>A Tesla bull is a little less bullish Monday. Battery technology is the main reason.</p><p><blockquote>周一，特斯拉牛市的牛市不那么乐观。电池技术是主要原因。</blockquote></p><p> Canaccord analyst Jonathan Dorsheimer threw his Tesla (ticker: TSLA) target price into reverse Monday, cutting it to $812, down $162, or 17% from $974. He maintained his Buy rating though.</p><p><blockquote>Canaccord分析师Jonathan Dorsheimer周一将特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）目标价下调至812美元，较974美元下跌162美元，即17%。不过，他维持买入评级。</blockquote></p><p> The cut isn’t having much impact on shares in Monday trading. Tesla stock is up about 1.3% to $618 a share. </p><p><blockquote>此次降息对周一交易的股价没有太大影响。特斯拉股价上涨约1.3%，至每股618美元。</blockquote></p><p> Even though he is still bullish on the company, Dorsheimer is wary about Tesla’s new batteries. In particular the larger&nbsp;4680 cell design&nbsp;which promises better charge time, longer per-charge range and lower cost.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Dorsheimer仍然看好该公司，但他对特斯拉的新电池持谨慎态度。特别是更大的4680电池设计，保证了更好的充电时间、更长的每次充电范围和更低的成本。</blockquote></p><p> The 4680 refers to a cylindrical battery with a diameter of 46 millimeters and a length of 80 millimeters. Today’s Tesla’s have 2170 batteries. That’s 21 millimeter diameter and 70 millimeter length.</p><p><blockquote>4680是指直径46毫米、长度80毫米的圆柱形电池。今天的特斯拉有2170电池。直径21毫米，长度70毫米。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla recently started delivering its&nbsp;Model S Plaid&nbsp;vehicle, billed as the fastest production car ever built. It can go zero to 60 miles per hour in under 2 seconds. But it also canceled the&nbsp;Plaid+&nbsp;which was going to have longer per-charge range partly because of the new battery design.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉最近开始交付Model S Plaid汽车，被宣传为有史以来最快的量产车。它可以在2秒内从零加速到60英里/小时。但它也取消了Plaid+，该产品每次充电的续航里程将更长，部分原因是新的电池设计。</blockquote></p><p> Dorsheimer wrote that the Plaid+ “was reportedly going to be the first to feature the new 4680 cell design.” The cancellation “signals to us the new cell format isn’t ready for production just yet, and cell production capacity constraints for energy storage products like Powerwall remain.”</p><p><blockquote>Dorsheimer写道，Plaid+“据报道将是第一款采用新4680电池设计的产品。”此次取消“向我们表明，新的电池格式尚未准备好投入生产，Powerwall等储能产品的电池产能限制仍然存在。”</blockquote></p><p> If the batteries aren’t ready yet, that’s a problem. Better batteries are a competitive advantage for electric-vehicle makers. Lower costs also allow Tesla to either charge less or make more money per car. Lower prices can expand the pool of Tesla buyers. Better profits, of course, are cheered by investors. And any battery-supply constraints could impact Tesla vehicle deliveries down the road. Wall Street expects Tesla to deliver 800,000 to 900,000 cars in 2021, up from about 500,000 cars in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>如果电池还没准备好，那就有问题了。更好的电池是电动汽车制造商的竞争优势。较低的成本也使特斯拉每辆车的收费更低或赚更多的钱。较低的价格可以扩大特斯拉买家的数量。更好的利润当然会受到投资者的欢呼。任何电池供应限制都可能影响特斯拉汽车未来的交付。华尔街预计，特斯拉2021年将交付80万至90万辆汽车，高于2020年的约50万辆。</blockquote></p><p> Dorsheimer’s target-price cut lowered the&nbsp;analyst average&nbsp;for Tesla stock to $618 a share from $623.</p><p><blockquote>多斯海默下调的目标价将分析师对特斯拉股票的平均预期从每股623美元下调至618美元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d33672c951c9eacd352a94e2f02112b\" tg-width=\"977\" tg-height=\"642\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Drops aren’t the norm recently. Tesla stock’s average analyst target price is up more than 830% from the start of 2018. The average analyst target price, however, has stopped rising since early February.</p><p><blockquote>最近跌倒并不常见。特斯拉股票的分析师平均目标价较2018年初上涨了830%以上。然而，分析师平均目标价自二月初以来已停止上涨。</blockquote></p><p> That’s also when bond yields started rising because of inflation fears. Higher bond yields hurt richly valued technology companies&nbsp;more than others&nbsp;for two reasons. Higher yields make it more costly to finance growth. It also reduces the present value of future cash flow. And growth companies generate most of their cash flow far in the future.</p><p><blockquote>这也是债券收益率因通胀担忧而开始上升的时候。债券收益率上升对估值高的科技公司的伤害比其他公司更大，原因有二。较高的收益率使得增长融资成本更高。它还减少了未来现金流的现值。成长型公司的大部分现金流是在遥远的未来产生的。</blockquote></p><p> Investors are looking&nbsp;for a catalyst&nbsp;to snap Tesla stock out of its recent range. First quarter earnings didn’t do it. Neither has the launch of the Plaid. Production from new facilities in Texas and Germany, due to start around year end 2021, as well as the new batteries, could be what investors need.</p><p><blockquote>投资者正在寻找snap·特斯拉股票走出近期区间的催化剂。第一季度的收益没有做到这一点。格子的推出也没有。德克萨斯州和德国的新工厂将于2021年底左右开始生产，以及新电池可能正是投资者所需要的。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, they also need EV demand to stay strong and for interest rates to stay in a low, stable range.</p><p><blockquote>当然，他们还需要电动汽车需求保持强劲，利率保持在较低、稳定的范围内。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-bull-cuts-price-target-batteries-51623686363?mod=RTA\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-bull-cuts-price-target-batteries-51623686363?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131396369","content_text":"A Tesla bull is a little less bullish Monday. Battery technology is the main reason.\nCanaccord analyst Jonathan Dorsheimer threw his Tesla (ticker: TSLA) target price into reverse Monday, cutting it to $812, down $162, or 17% from $974. He maintained his Buy rating though.\nThe cut isn’t having much impact on shares in Monday trading. Tesla stock is up about 1.3% to $618 a share. \nEven though he is still bullish on the company, Dorsheimer is wary about Tesla’s new batteries. In particular the larger 4680 cell design which promises better charge time, longer per-charge range and lower cost.\nThe 4680 refers to a cylindrical battery with a diameter of 46 millimeters and a length of 80 millimeters. Today’s Tesla’s have 2170 batteries. That’s 21 millimeter diameter and 70 millimeter length.\nTesla recently started delivering its Model S Plaid vehicle, billed as the fastest production car ever built. It can go zero to 60 miles per hour in under 2 seconds. But it also canceled the Plaid+ which was going to have longer per-charge range partly because of the new battery design.\nDorsheimer wrote that the Plaid+ “was reportedly going to be the first to feature the new 4680 cell design.” The cancellation “signals to us the new cell format isn’t ready for production just yet, and cell production capacity constraints for energy storage products like Powerwall remain.”\nIf the batteries aren’t ready yet, that’s a problem. Better batteries are a competitive advantage for electric-vehicle makers. Lower costs also allow Tesla to either charge less or make more money per car. Lower prices can expand the pool of Tesla buyers. Better profits, of course, are cheered by investors. And any battery-supply constraints could impact Tesla vehicle deliveries down the road. Wall Street expects Tesla to deliver 800,000 to 900,000 cars in 2021, up from about 500,000 cars in 2020.\nDorsheimer’s target-price cut lowered the analyst average for Tesla stock to $618 a share from $623.\n\nDrops aren’t the norm recently. Tesla stock’s average analyst target price is up more than 830% from the start of 2018. The average analyst target price, however, has stopped rising since early February.\nThat’s also when bond yields started rising because of inflation fears. Higher bond yields hurt richly valued technology companies more than others for two reasons. Higher yields make it more costly to finance growth. It also reduces the present value of future cash flow. And growth companies generate most of their cash flow far in the future.\nInvestors are looking for a catalyst to snap Tesla stock out of its recent range. First quarter earnings didn’t do it. Neither has the launch of the Plaid. Production from new facilities in Texas and Germany, due to start around year end 2021, as well as the new batteries, could be what investors need.\nOf course, they also need EV demand to stay strong and for interest rates to stay in a low, stable range.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":864,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":114760639,"gmtCreate":1623106665721,"gmtModify":1631892122182,"author":{"id":"3576118384681891","authorId":"3576118384681891","name":"valueTrader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b20c817213be1647e2dee23f5d62e0d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576118384681891","idStr":"3576118384681891"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sentiment is too high","listText":"Sentiment is too high","text":"Sentiment is too high","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/114760639","repostId":"1134242022","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1134242022","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623086430,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1134242022?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-08 01:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Have Stocks Already Priced In The \"Economic Boom\"?<blockquote>股票已经在“经济繁荣”中定价了吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134242022","media":"zerohedge","summary":"The media is buzzing with claims of an “Economic Boom” in 2021. While the economy will most certainl","content":"<p>The media is buzzing with claims of an&nbsp;<i>“Economic Boom”</i>&nbsp;in 2021. While the economy will most certainly grow in 2021, the question is how much is already&nbsp;<i>“baked in?”</i></p><p><blockquote>媒体上充斥着关于<i>“经济繁荣”</i>2021年。虽然2021年经济肯定会增长，但问题是已经增长了多少<i>“烤好了？”</i></blockquote></p><p>   <i><b>“The economy has entered a period of supercharged growth. Instead of fizzling, it could potentially remain stronger than it was during the pre-pandemic era into 2023.</b></i>  <i>Economists now expect the second quarter to grow at a pace of 10%, and they expect growth for 2021 to be north of 6.5%.</i>  <i><b>In the past decade, only a few quarters gross domestic product growing at even 3%.”</b></i>  The premise is that strong<i>&nbsp;“pent up”</i>&nbsp;demand will sustain the economic recovery over the next few years.</p><p><blockquote><i><b>“经济已经进入高速增长时期。到2023年，它非但不会失败，反而可能保持比大流行前时期更强劲的势头。</b></i><i>经济学家现在预计第二季度将以10%的速度增长，他们预计2021年的增长率将超过6.5%。</i><i><b>在过去的十年里，只有几个季度的国内生产总值增长了3%。”</b></i>前提是强<i>“被压抑了”</i>需求将在未来几年维持经济复苏。</blockquote></p><p> However, since market lows in 2020, the market surge has not only recouped all of those losses but has rocketed to all-time highs on expectations of surging earnings growth.</p><p><blockquote>然而，自2020年市场低点以来，市场飙升不仅弥补了所有这些损失，而且由于盈利增长飙升的预期，市场飙升至历史高点。</blockquote></p><p> The question: How much has gotten priced in?</p><p><blockquote>问题是：定价了多少？</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Return To Normalcy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>恢复正常</b></blockquote></p><p> Just recently, Liz Ann Sonders wrote a piece for&nbsp;Advisor Perspectives.&nbsp;To wit:</p><p><blockquote>就在最近，Liz Ann Sonders为Advisor Perspectives写了一篇文章。也就是说：</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“Vaccines and herd immunity continue to bring COVID cases down, and</i>  <i><b>&nbsp;the economic reopening continues to kick into a higher gear. Such is whatthe data is starting to show.</b></i>  <i>&nbsp;Across economic metrics, from the gross domestic product (GDP) to retail sales and job growth,</i>  <i><b>boom conditions are evident</b></i>  <i>.”</i>  She is correct in her statement.<b>&nbsp;However, there is a difference between an</b><b><i>“economic boom”</i></b><b>&nbsp;and a</b><b><i>“recovery.”</i></b>&nbsp;As shown in the chart of GDP growth below, the U.S. has already experienced a very sharp<i>&nbsp;“economic recovery”</i>&nbsp;from the recessionary lows.&nbsp;<i>(I have included estimates for the rest of 2020, which shows a return to trend growth.)</i></p><p><blockquote><i>“疫苗和群体免疫继续减少新冠病例，并且</i><i><b>经济重新开放继续加速。这就是数据开始显示的情况。</b></i><i>从国内生产总值（GDP）到零售额和就业增长，</i><i><b>景气状况明显</b></i><i>.”</i>她的陈述是正确的。<b>但是，</b><b><i>“经济繁荣”</i></b><b>和一个</b><b><i>“恢复。”</i></b>正如下面的GDP增长图表所示，美国已经经历了非常急剧的<i>“经济复苏”</i>从衰退的低点。<i>（我纳入了对2020年剩余时间的估计，这表明将恢复趋势增长。）</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fdad10528414b4274fcd428501380f7\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"280\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The following chart shows the economic recovery against the massive dumps of liquidity pumped into the economy.&nbsp;<i>(Estimates run through the end of 2021 using economist’s assumptions.)</i></p><p><blockquote>下图显示了在大量流动性注入经济的情况下，经济复苏的情况。<i>（使用《经济学人》的假设进行的估计持续到2021年底。）</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dba515f0c9d2b1e6b69cd03edccc9bec\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"280\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Can’t Recoup Losses</b></p><p><blockquote><b>无法挽回损失</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Certain areas of the economy, like airlines, hotels, and cruise ships, have yet to recover to pre-pandemic levels.</b>However, those industries only make up a relatively small amount of overall economic activity. Furthermore, these industries will continue to struggle for some time as individuals will not take&nbsp;<i>“two vacations”</i>&nbsp;this year since they missed last year.&nbsp;<b>That activity is now forever lost.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>某些经济领域，如航空公司、酒店和游轮，尚未恢复到大流行前的水平。</b>然而，这些行业在整体经济活动中只占相对较小的一部分。此外，这些行业将继续挣扎一段时间，因为个人不会采取<i>“两个假期”</i>自从他们去年错过了。<b>这项活动现在已经永远消失了。</b></blockquote></p><p> Yes, the economy will recover most likely to pre-pandemic levels this year due to stimulus injections,<b><i>&nbsp;but as discussed previously</i></b>, what then?</p><p><blockquote>是的，由于刺激注入，今年经济最有可能恢复到大流行前的水平，<b><i>但如前所述</i></b>，然后呢？</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“The biggest problem with more stimulus is the increase in the debt required to fund it.</i>  <i><b>&nbsp;There is no historical precedent, anywhere globally, that shows increased debt levels lead to more robust economic growth rates or prosperity.</b></i>  <i>&nbsp;Since 1980, the overall increase in debt has surged to levels that currently usurp the entirety of economic growth.</i>  <i><b>With economic growth rates now at the lowest levels on record, the change in debt continues to divert more tax dollars away from productive investments into the service of debt and social welfare.”</b></i>  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2a13ef8b21cb5f0f15b7d3bc37642a0\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"279\"></p><p><blockquote><i>“更多刺激措施的最大问题是为其提供资金所需的债务增加。</i><i><b>全球任何地方都没有历史先例表明债务水平的增加会导致更强劲的经济增长率或繁荣。</b></i><i>自1980年以来，债务的总体增长已飙升至目前取代全部经济增长的水平。</i><i><b>由于经济增长率目前处于有记录以来的最低水平，债务的变化继续将更多的税收从生产性投资转移到偿还债务和社会福利上。”</b></i></blockquote></p><p> Just as it is with investing, getting&nbsp;<i>“back to even”</i>&nbsp;is not the same thing as&nbsp;<i>“organic growth.”</i></p><p><blockquote>就像投资一样，获得<i>“回到偶数”</i>不是一回事<i>“有机增长。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Second Derivative</b></p><p><blockquote><b>二阶导数</b></blockquote></p><p> What is shown above is the&nbsp;<b><i>“second derivative”</i></b>&nbsp;effect of growth.</p><p><blockquote>上面显示的是<b><i>二阶导数</i></b>增长的影响。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“In&nbsp;calculus, the</i>  <i><b>second derivative</b></i>  <i>, or the</i>  <i><b>second-order derivative</b></i>  <i>, of a&nbsp;function&nbsp;f&nbsp;is the&nbsp;derivative&nbsp;of the derivative of&nbsp;f.” – Wikipedia.</i>  In English, the<i>&nbsp;“second derivative”</i>&nbsp;measures how the rate of change of a quantity is itself changing. Since we measure GDP growth on an annual rate of change basis, the larger the economy grows, the lower the rate of change will be. Here is a simplistic example go GDP growth:</p><p><blockquote><i>“在微积分中，</i><i><b>二阶导数</b></i><i>，或</i><i><b>二阶导数</b></i><i>函数f的导数是f的导数。”-维基百科。</i>在英语中，<i>二阶导数</i>测量一个量本身的变化率如何变化。由于我们以年变化率衡量GDP增长，经济增长越大，变化率就越低。这里有一个简单的GDP增长例子：</blockquote></p><p>   <i>In year 1,&nbsp;GDP = $1. In the second year, GDP grows to $2. The annual rate of change is 100%. However, in year 3, even though the economy grows to $3, the annual rate of change falls to just 50%.</i>  Given the long-term historical correlation between economic growth, corporate earnings, and annualized returns, the reversion to trend growth has implications for investors. As Liz notes:</p><p><blockquote><i>第一年，国内生产总值=1美元。第二年，GDP增长到2美元。年变化率为100%。然而，在第三年，即使经济增长到3美元，年变化率也下降到只有50%。</i>鉴于经济增长、企业盈利和年化回报之间的长期历史相关性，趋势增长的回归对投资者具有影响。正如Liz指出的：</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   <i>“Using three broad ranges for GDP growth historically, the lowest range (when the economy is barely growing or in recession) is accompanied by the highest annualized stock market performance.</i>  <i><b>GDP is only slightly back into positive territory on an annualized basis. However, the strong growth expected in the second quarter will push GDP into the highest zone. At that level, stocks have historically posted a negative annualized return.”</b></i>  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fefede26dacdf96c2afd65040c979eb5\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"289\"></p><p><blockquote><i>“从历史上看，GDP增长使用三个广泛的范围，最低范围（当经济几乎没有增长或陷入衰退时）伴随着最高的年化股市表现。</i><i><b>按年计算，GDP仅略微回到正值区域。然而，预计第二季度的强劲增长将推动GDP进入最高区域。在这个水平上，股票的年化回报率历来为负。”</b></i></blockquote></p><p> The reason is that once economic growth reaches higher levels, stocks have climbed to levels incorporating those expectations. In other words, when things are as&nbsp;<i>“good as they can get,”</i>&nbsp;stocks begin to reprice for slower future growth rates.</p><p><blockquote>原因是，一旦经济增长达到更高水平，股市就会攀升至包含这些预期的水平。换句话说，当事物如<i>“他们能得到的最好的。”</i>股票开始为未来增长率放缓重新定价。</blockquote></p><p> That is the phase we are at currently.</p><p><blockquote>这就是我们目前所处的阶段。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How Much Pent Up Demand Is There Anyway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>到底有多少被压抑的需求</b></blockquote></p><p> The main driver of the expected recovery from a&nbsp;<i>“recessionary”</i>&nbsp;low stems from the question of how much&nbsp;<i>“pent up”</i>&nbsp;demand currently exists?</p><p><blockquote>预期复苏的主要驱动因素<i>“衰退”</i>低源于多少的问题<i>“被压抑了”</i>需求目前存在吗？</blockquote></p><p> If we look at durable goods as an example, such would suggest that much of the demand for long-lasting products got pulled forward by consumers over the last 12-months.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们以耐用品为例，这表明在过去12个月里，消费者对耐用品的大部分需求都被拉动了。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a089734aaefc5afe0333a7ee63606fbe\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"184\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Of course,&nbsp;<b>if we broaden that measure to retails sales which make up ~40% of the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index</b>, we see much the same.</p><p><blockquote>当然，<b>如果我们把衡量标准扩大到占个人消费支出（PCE）指数40%左右零售销售</b>，我们看到的差不多。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e92c968f205973f191c55c538d189e2e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"185\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Given PCE,&nbsp;<b>which comprises nearly 70% of GDP,</b>&nbsp;has already recovered much of pandemic-related decline, how much&nbsp;<i>“pent up”</i>&nbsp;demand remains.</p><p><blockquote>给定PCE，<b>占国内生产总值近70%，</b>已经恢复了与大流行相关的大部分下降，有多少<i>“被压抑了”</i>需求依然存在。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f718e21229399dc7e5997f4375c2541\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"185\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> However, wage growth outside of personal transfer payments&nbsp;<i>(i.e., stimulus)</i>&nbsp;hasn’t recovered. It is impossible to sustain higher rates of economic growth without wage growth.</p><p><blockquote>然而，个人转移支付之外的工资增长<i>（即刺激）</i>还没恢复。没有工资增长，就不可能维持更高的经济增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7caa93f603a20c9413aaf28b0ccbf2b5\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"368\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Importantly, as we saw in January and February following the $900 billion stimulus bill passage, there was a short-lived surge of activity. However, once individuals spent the money, activity quickly faded.</b>&nbsp;We saw the same with retail sales in April following the American Rescue Plan, which sent out $1400 checks.</p><p><blockquote><b>重要的是，正如我们在9000亿美元刺激法案通过后的1月和2月所看到的那样，活动出现了短暂的激增。然而，一旦个人花了钱，活动很快就消失了。</b>在美国救援计划发出1400美元支票后，我们在4月份的零售销售中看到了同样的情况。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c31449e02d4ba266c905203a16de1ad5\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"312\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> After the $1400 checks get spent, what will be the driver for continued consumption at previous rates? Further, given the impact of a larger economy (as it recovers), the rate of change will decline markedly in the months to come.</p><p><blockquote>1400美元支票花完后，以以前的价格继续消费的驱动力是什么？此外，鉴于更大经济体的影响（随着其复苏），变化率将在未来几个月显著下降。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Earnings Growth Inflection</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盈利增长拐点</b></blockquote></p><p>   <i>“Earnings growth has a high correlation to stock market performance, but with time lags that are less well-understood. We are about halfway through the first quarter S&amp;P 500 earnings season and so far, the results are exceptionally strong.” – Liz Ann Sonders</i>  That is correct, and given the high correlation between earnings and market returns, we come back to the same question. Has the advance in the market accounted for the rebound in earnings? More importantly, what happens when that growth reverses?</p><p><blockquote><i>“盈利增长与股市表现有很高的相关性，但其时滞不太为人所知。标普500第一季度财报季已过半，到目前为止，业绩异常强劲。”——莉兹·安·桑德斯</i>这是正确的，鉴于收益和市场回报之间的高度相关性，我们回到同一个问题。市场的上涨是否解释了盈利的反弹？更重要的是，当这种增长逆转时会发生什么？</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“Relative to last year’s second-quarter plunge of nearly -31% year-over-year, expectations are that S&amp;P 500 earnings will be up more than 46% in this year’s first quarter. The second quarter will boast a whopping 60% increase. Such should be the inflection point in terms of the year-over-year growth rate.” – Liz Ann Sonders</i>  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90ee4fca36856fe8fa3e5938aa46c656\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"141\"></p><p><blockquote><i>“相对于去年第二季度同比暴跌近-31%，预计标普500今年第一季度盈利将增长46%以上。第二季度将增长60%。这应该是同比增长率的拐点。”——莉兹·安·桑德斯</i></blockquote></p><p> The problem is the S&amp;P rose to levels that earnings growth will have difficulty supporting, particularly as the stimulus fades from the system. As with economic growth, the 2nd derivative of earnings growth is now a headwind for the markets.</p><p><blockquote>问题是，标准普尔指数升至盈利增长难以支撑的水平，特别是在刺激措施从系统中消退的情况下。与经济增长一样，盈利增长的二阶导数现在对市场来说是一个阻力。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98ea62bdd7be88d7a4a281250f2b9f54\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"272\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Such is also the problem of&nbsp;<i><b>“pulling forward sales.”</b></i></p><p><blockquote>这也是<i><b>“拉动销售。”</b></i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> Notably, the outsized growth of the market reflects repetitive interventions into the financial markets by the Fed. Those interventions detached financial asset growth from their long-term correlation to GDP growth, where corporate revenue comes from. Historically, when the<i><b>&nbsp;S&amp;P 500 becomes separated from economic growth,</b></i>&nbsp;a reversion occurred.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，市场的大幅增长反映了美联储对金融市场的反复干预。这些干预措施将金融资产增长与其与GDP增长的长期相关性分开，而GDP增长是企业收入的来源。从历史上看，当<i><b>标普500指数与经济增长脱钩，</b></i>发生了逆转。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/517d8bbd7819339ad187c2d899d0e321\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"270\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Currently, analysts are expecting earnings to surge well above economic growth rates. However, the flaw in the analysis is the assumption earnings growth will continue its current trend.</p><p><blockquote>目前，分析师预计盈利飙升将远高于经济增长率。然而，该分析的缺陷在于假设盈利增长将延续目前的趋势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>While there will be an economic recovery to pre-pandemic levels, a recovery is very different from an expansion.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>虽然经济将恢复到大流行前的水平，但复苏与扩张有很大不同。</b></blockquote></p><p> As Liz concludes:</p><p><blockquote>正如Liz总结的那样：</blockquote></p><p>   <i><b>“Optimism is extremely elevated.</b></i>  <i>Such is certainly justified by stock market behavior over the past year and recent economic releases.</i>  <i><b>But some curbing of enthusiasm may be warranted given the history of the stock market as an uncanny ‘sniffer-outer’ of economic inflection points.”</b></i>  <b>As she goes on to point out, this is not a time for FOMO-driven investment decision-making.</b>&nbsp;The reality is that the supports that drove the economic recovery will not support an ongoing economic expansion. One is self-sustaining organic growth from productive activity, and the other is not.</p><p><blockquote><i><b>“乐观情绪非常高涨。</b></i><i>过去一年的股市行为和最近的经济数据无疑证明了这一点。</i><i><b>但考虑到股市作为经济拐点的不可思议的‘嗅探者’的历史，可能有必要对热情进行一些抑制。”</b></i><b>正如她继续指出的那样，现在不是FOMO驱动的投资决策的时候。</b>现实情况是，推动经济复苏的支持不会支持持续的经济扩张。一种是来自生产活动的自我维持的有机增长，另一种不是。</blockquote></p><p> The risk of disappointment is high. And so are the costs of being<i>&nbsp;“wilfully blind”</i>&nbsp;to the dangers.</p><p><blockquote>失望的风险很高。存在的成本也是如此<i>“故意视而不见”</i>面对危险。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Have Stocks Already Priced In The \"Economic Boom\"?<blockquote>股票已经在“经济繁荣”中定价了吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHave Stocks Already Priced In The \"Economic Boom\"?<blockquote>股票已经在“经济繁荣”中定价了吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-08 01:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The media is buzzing with claims of an&nbsp;<i>“Economic Boom”</i>&nbsp;in 2021. While the economy will most certainly grow in 2021, the question is how much is already&nbsp;<i>“baked in?”</i></p><p><blockquote>媒体上充斥着关于<i>“经济繁荣”</i>2021年。虽然2021年经济肯定会增长，但问题是已经增长了多少<i>“烤好了？”</i></blockquote></p><p>   <i><b>“The economy has entered a period of supercharged growth. Instead of fizzling, it could potentially remain stronger than it was during the pre-pandemic era into 2023.</b></i>  <i>Economists now expect the second quarter to grow at a pace of 10%, and they expect growth for 2021 to be north of 6.5%.</i>  <i><b>In the past decade, only a few quarters gross domestic product growing at even 3%.”</b></i>  The premise is that strong<i>&nbsp;“pent up”</i>&nbsp;demand will sustain the economic recovery over the next few years.</p><p><blockquote><i><b>“经济已经进入高速增长时期。到2023年，它非但不会失败，反而可能保持比大流行前时期更强劲的势头。</b></i><i>经济学家现在预计第二季度将以10%的速度增长，他们预计2021年的增长率将超过6.5%。</i><i><b>在过去的十年里，只有几个季度的国内生产总值增长了3%。”</b></i>前提是强<i>“被压抑了”</i>需求将在未来几年维持经济复苏。</blockquote></p><p> However, since market lows in 2020, the market surge has not only recouped all of those losses but has rocketed to all-time highs on expectations of surging earnings growth.</p><p><blockquote>然而，自2020年市场低点以来，市场飙升不仅弥补了所有这些损失，而且由于盈利增长飙升的预期，市场飙升至历史高点。</blockquote></p><p> The question: How much has gotten priced in?</p><p><blockquote>问题是：定价了多少？</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Return To Normalcy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>恢复正常</b></blockquote></p><p> Just recently, Liz Ann Sonders wrote a piece for&nbsp;Advisor Perspectives.&nbsp;To wit:</p><p><blockquote>就在最近，Liz Ann Sonders为Advisor Perspectives写了一篇文章。也就是说：</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“Vaccines and herd immunity continue to bring COVID cases down, and</i>  <i><b>&nbsp;the economic reopening continues to kick into a higher gear. Such is whatthe data is starting to show.</b></i>  <i>&nbsp;Across economic metrics, from the gross domestic product (GDP) to retail sales and job growth,</i>  <i><b>boom conditions are evident</b></i>  <i>.”</i>  She is correct in her statement.<b>&nbsp;However, there is a difference between an</b><b><i>“economic boom”</i></b><b>&nbsp;and a</b><b><i>“recovery.”</i></b>&nbsp;As shown in the chart of GDP growth below, the U.S. has already experienced a very sharp<i>&nbsp;“economic recovery”</i>&nbsp;from the recessionary lows.&nbsp;<i>(I have included estimates for the rest of 2020, which shows a return to trend growth.)</i></p><p><blockquote><i>“疫苗和群体免疫继续减少新冠病例，并且</i><i><b>经济重新开放继续加速。这就是数据开始显示的情况。</b></i><i>从国内生产总值（GDP）到零售额和就业增长，</i><i><b>景气状况明显</b></i><i>.”</i>她的陈述是正确的。<b>但是，</b><b><i>“经济繁荣”</i></b><b>和一个</b><b><i>“恢复。”</i></b>正如下面的GDP增长图表所示，美国已经经历了非常急剧的<i>“经济复苏”</i>从衰退的低点。<i>（我纳入了对2020年剩余时间的估计，这表明将恢复趋势增长。）</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fdad10528414b4274fcd428501380f7\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"280\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The following chart shows the economic recovery against the massive dumps of liquidity pumped into the economy.&nbsp;<i>(Estimates run through the end of 2021 using economist’s assumptions.)</i></p><p><blockquote>下图显示了在大量流动性注入经济的情况下，经济复苏的情况。<i>（使用《经济学人》的假设进行的估计持续到2021年底。）</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dba515f0c9d2b1e6b69cd03edccc9bec\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"280\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Can’t Recoup Losses</b></p><p><blockquote><b>无法挽回损失</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Certain areas of the economy, like airlines, hotels, and cruise ships, have yet to recover to pre-pandemic levels.</b>However, those industries only make up a relatively small amount of overall economic activity. Furthermore, these industries will continue to struggle for some time as individuals will not take&nbsp;<i>“two vacations”</i>&nbsp;this year since they missed last year.&nbsp;<b>That activity is now forever lost.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>某些经济领域，如航空公司、酒店和游轮，尚未恢复到大流行前的水平。</b>然而，这些行业在整体经济活动中只占相对较小的一部分。此外，这些行业将继续挣扎一段时间，因为个人不会采取<i>“两个假期”</i>自从他们去年错过了。<b>这项活动现在已经永远消失了。</b></blockquote></p><p> Yes, the economy will recover most likely to pre-pandemic levels this year due to stimulus injections,<b><i>&nbsp;but as discussed previously</i></b>, what then?</p><p><blockquote>是的，由于刺激注入，今年经济最有可能恢复到大流行前的水平，<b><i>但如前所述</i></b>，然后呢？</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“The biggest problem with more stimulus is the increase in the debt required to fund it.</i>  <i><b>&nbsp;There is no historical precedent, anywhere globally, that shows increased debt levels lead to more robust economic growth rates or prosperity.</b></i>  <i>&nbsp;Since 1980, the overall increase in debt has surged to levels that currently usurp the entirety of economic growth.</i>  <i><b>With economic growth rates now at the lowest levels on record, the change in debt continues to divert more tax dollars away from productive investments into the service of debt and social welfare.”</b></i>  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2a13ef8b21cb5f0f15b7d3bc37642a0\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"279\"></p><p><blockquote><i>“更多刺激措施的最大问题是为其提供资金所需的债务增加。</i><i><b>全球任何地方都没有历史先例表明债务水平的增加会导致更强劲的经济增长率或繁荣。</b></i><i>自1980年以来，债务的总体增长已飙升至目前取代全部经济增长的水平。</i><i><b>由于经济增长率目前处于有记录以来的最低水平，债务的变化继续将更多的税收从生产性投资转移到偿还债务和社会福利上。”</b></i></blockquote></p><p> Just as it is with investing, getting&nbsp;<i>“back to even”</i>&nbsp;is not the same thing as&nbsp;<i>“organic growth.”</i></p><p><blockquote>就像投资一样，获得<i>“回到偶数”</i>不是一回事<i>“有机增长。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Second Derivative</b></p><p><blockquote><b>二阶导数</b></blockquote></p><p> What is shown above is the&nbsp;<b><i>“second derivative”</i></b>&nbsp;effect of growth.</p><p><blockquote>上面显示的是<b><i>二阶导数</i></b>增长的影响。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“In&nbsp;calculus, the</i>  <i><b>second derivative</b></i>  <i>, or the</i>  <i><b>second-order derivative</b></i>  <i>, of a&nbsp;function&nbsp;f&nbsp;is the&nbsp;derivative&nbsp;of the derivative of&nbsp;f.” – Wikipedia.</i>  In English, the<i>&nbsp;“second derivative”</i>&nbsp;measures how the rate of change of a quantity is itself changing. Since we measure GDP growth on an annual rate of change basis, the larger the economy grows, the lower the rate of change will be. Here is a simplistic example go GDP growth:</p><p><blockquote><i>“在微积分中，</i><i><b>二阶导数</b></i><i>，或</i><i><b>二阶导数</b></i><i>函数f的导数是f的导数。”-维基百科。</i>在英语中，<i>二阶导数</i>测量一个量本身的变化率如何变化。由于我们以年变化率衡量GDP增长，经济增长越大，变化率就越低。这里有一个简单的GDP增长例子：</blockquote></p><p>   <i>In year 1,&nbsp;GDP = $1. In the second year, GDP grows to $2. The annual rate of change is 100%. However, in year 3, even though the economy grows to $3, the annual rate of change falls to just 50%.</i>  Given the long-term historical correlation between economic growth, corporate earnings, and annualized returns, the reversion to trend growth has implications for investors. As Liz notes:</p><p><blockquote><i>第一年，国内生产总值=1美元。第二年，GDP增长到2美元。年变化率为100%。然而，在第三年，即使经济增长到3美元，年变化率也下降到只有50%。</i>鉴于经济增长、企业盈利和年化回报之间的长期历史相关性，趋势增长的回归对投资者具有影响。正如Liz指出的：</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   <i>“Using three broad ranges for GDP growth historically, the lowest range (when the economy is barely growing or in recession) is accompanied by the highest annualized stock market performance.</i>  <i><b>GDP is only slightly back into positive territory on an annualized basis. However, the strong growth expected in the second quarter will push GDP into the highest zone. At that level, stocks have historically posted a negative annualized return.”</b></i>  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fefede26dacdf96c2afd65040c979eb5\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"289\"></p><p><blockquote><i>“从历史上看，GDP增长使用三个广泛的范围，最低范围（当经济几乎没有增长或陷入衰退时）伴随着最高的年化股市表现。</i><i><b>按年计算，GDP仅略微回到正值区域。然而，预计第二季度的强劲增长将推动GDP进入最高区域。在这个水平上，股票的年化回报率历来为负。”</b></i></blockquote></p><p> The reason is that once economic growth reaches higher levels, stocks have climbed to levels incorporating those expectations. In other words, when things are as&nbsp;<i>“good as they can get,”</i>&nbsp;stocks begin to reprice for slower future growth rates.</p><p><blockquote>原因是，一旦经济增长达到更高水平，股市就会攀升至包含这些预期的水平。换句话说，当事物如<i>“他们能得到的最好的。”</i>股票开始为未来增长率放缓重新定价。</blockquote></p><p> That is the phase we are at currently.</p><p><blockquote>这就是我们目前所处的阶段。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How Much Pent Up Demand Is There Anyway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>到底有多少被压抑的需求</b></blockquote></p><p> The main driver of the expected recovery from a&nbsp;<i>“recessionary”</i>&nbsp;low stems from the question of how much&nbsp;<i>“pent up”</i>&nbsp;demand currently exists?</p><p><blockquote>预期复苏的主要驱动因素<i>“衰退”</i>低源于多少的问题<i>“被压抑了”</i>需求目前存在吗？</blockquote></p><p> If we look at durable goods as an example, such would suggest that much of the demand for long-lasting products got pulled forward by consumers over the last 12-months.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们以耐用品为例，这表明在过去12个月里，消费者对耐用品的大部分需求都被拉动了。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a089734aaefc5afe0333a7ee63606fbe\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"184\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Of course,&nbsp;<b>if we broaden that measure to retails sales which make up ~40% of the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index</b>, we see much the same.</p><p><blockquote>当然，<b>如果我们把衡量标准扩大到占个人消费支出（PCE）指数40%左右零售销售</b>，我们看到的差不多。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e92c968f205973f191c55c538d189e2e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"185\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Given PCE,&nbsp;<b>which comprises nearly 70% of GDP,</b>&nbsp;has already recovered much of pandemic-related decline, how much&nbsp;<i>“pent up”</i>&nbsp;demand remains.</p><p><blockquote>给定PCE，<b>占国内生产总值近70%，</b>已经恢复了与大流行相关的大部分下降，有多少<i>“被压抑了”</i>需求依然存在。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f718e21229399dc7e5997f4375c2541\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"185\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> However, wage growth outside of personal transfer payments&nbsp;<i>(i.e., stimulus)</i>&nbsp;hasn’t recovered. It is impossible to sustain higher rates of economic growth without wage growth.</p><p><blockquote>然而，个人转移支付之外的工资增长<i>（即刺激）</i>还没恢复。没有工资增长，就不可能维持更高的经济增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7caa93f603a20c9413aaf28b0ccbf2b5\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"368\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Importantly, as we saw in January and February following the $900 billion stimulus bill passage, there was a short-lived surge of activity. However, once individuals spent the money, activity quickly faded.</b>&nbsp;We saw the same with retail sales in April following the American Rescue Plan, which sent out $1400 checks.</p><p><blockquote><b>重要的是，正如我们在9000亿美元刺激法案通过后的1月和2月所看到的那样，活动出现了短暂的激增。然而，一旦个人花了钱，活动很快就消失了。</b>在美国救援计划发出1400美元支票后，我们在4月份的零售销售中看到了同样的情况。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c31449e02d4ba266c905203a16de1ad5\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"312\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> After the $1400 checks get spent, what will be the driver for continued consumption at previous rates? Further, given the impact of a larger economy (as it recovers), the rate of change will decline markedly in the months to come.</p><p><blockquote>1400美元支票花完后，以以前的价格继续消费的驱动力是什么？此外，鉴于更大经济体的影响（随着其复苏），变化率将在未来几个月显著下降。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Earnings Growth Inflection</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盈利增长拐点</b></blockquote></p><p>   <i>“Earnings growth has a high correlation to stock market performance, but with time lags that are less well-understood. We are about halfway through the first quarter S&amp;P 500 earnings season and so far, the results are exceptionally strong.” – Liz Ann Sonders</i>  That is correct, and given the high correlation between earnings and market returns, we come back to the same question. Has the advance in the market accounted for the rebound in earnings? More importantly, what happens when that growth reverses?</p><p><blockquote><i>“盈利增长与股市表现有很高的相关性，但其时滞不太为人所知。标普500第一季度财报季已过半，到目前为止，业绩异常强劲。”——莉兹·安·桑德斯</i>这是正确的，鉴于收益和市场回报之间的高度相关性，我们回到同一个问题。市场的上涨是否解释了盈利的反弹？更重要的是，当这种增长逆转时会发生什么？</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“Relative to last year’s second-quarter plunge of nearly -31% year-over-year, expectations are that S&amp;P 500 earnings will be up more than 46% in this year’s first quarter. The second quarter will boast a whopping 60% increase. Such should be the inflection point in terms of the year-over-year growth rate.” – Liz Ann Sonders</i>  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90ee4fca36856fe8fa3e5938aa46c656\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"141\"></p><p><blockquote><i>“相对于去年第二季度同比暴跌近-31%，预计标普500今年第一季度盈利将增长46%以上。第二季度将增长60%。这应该是同比增长率的拐点。”——莉兹·安·桑德斯</i></blockquote></p><p> The problem is the S&amp;P rose to levels that earnings growth will have difficulty supporting, particularly as the stimulus fades from the system. As with economic growth, the 2nd derivative of earnings growth is now a headwind for the markets.</p><p><blockquote>问题是，标准普尔指数升至盈利增长难以支撑的水平，特别是在刺激措施从系统中消退的情况下。与经济增长一样，盈利增长的二阶导数现在对市场来说是一个阻力。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98ea62bdd7be88d7a4a281250f2b9f54\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"272\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Such is also the problem of&nbsp;<i><b>“pulling forward sales.”</b></i></p><p><blockquote>这也是<i><b>“拉动销售。”</b></i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> Notably, the outsized growth of the market reflects repetitive interventions into the financial markets by the Fed. Those interventions detached financial asset growth from their long-term correlation to GDP growth, where corporate revenue comes from. Historically, when the<i><b>&nbsp;S&amp;P 500 becomes separated from economic growth,</b></i>&nbsp;a reversion occurred.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，市场的大幅增长反映了美联储对金融市场的反复干预。这些干预措施将金融资产增长与其与GDP增长的长期相关性分开，而GDP增长是企业收入的来源。从历史上看，当<i><b>标普500指数与经济增长脱钩，</b></i>发生了逆转。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/517d8bbd7819339ad187c2d899d0e321\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"270\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Currently, analysts are expecting earnings to surge well above economic growth rates. However, the flaw in the analysis is the assumption earnings growth will continue its current trend.</p><p><blockquote>目前，分析师预计盈利飙升将远高于经济增长率。然而，该分析的缺陷在于假设盈利增长将延续目前的趋势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>While there will be an economic recovery to pre-pandemic levels, a recovery is very different from an expansion.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>虽然经济将恢复到大流行前的水平，但复苏与扩张有很大不同。</b></blockquote></p><p> As Liz concludes:</p><p><blockquote>正如Liz总结的那样：</blockquote></p><p>   <i><b>“Optimism is extremely elevated.</b></i>  <i>Such is certainly justified by stock market behavior over the past year and recent economic releases.</i>  <i><b>But some curbing of enthusiasm may be warranted given the history of the stock market as an uncanny ‘sniffer-outer’ of economic inflection points.”</b></i>  <b>As she goes on to point out, this is not a time for FOMO-driven investment decision-making.</b>&nbsp;The reality is that the supports that drove the economic recovery will not support an ongoing economic expansion. One is self-sustaining organic growth from productive activity, and the other is not.</p><p><blockquote><i><b>“乐观情绪非常高涨。</b></i><i>过去一年的股市行为和最近的经济数据无疑证明了这一点。</i><i><b>但考虑到股市作为经济拐点的不可思议的‘嗅探者’的历史，可能有必要对热情进行一些抑制。”</b></i><b>正如她继续指出的那样，现在不是FOMO驱动的投资决策的时候。</b>现实情况是，推动经济复苏的支持不会支持持续的经济扩张。一种是来自生产活动的自我维持的有机增长，另一种不是。</blockquote></p><p> The risk of disappointment is high. And so are the costs of being<i>&nbsp;“wilfully blind”</i>&nbsp;to the dangers.</p><p><blockquote>失望的风险很高。存在的成本也是如此<i>“故意视而不见”</i>面对危险。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/have-stocks-already-priced-economic-boom?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/have-stocks-already-priced-economic-boom?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1134242022","content_text":"The media is buzzing with claims of an “Economic Boom” in 2021. While the economy will most certainly grow in 2021, the question is how much is already “baked in?”\n\n“The economy has entered a period of supercharged growth. Instead of fizzling, it could potentially remain stronger than it was during the pre-pandemic era into 2023.\nEconomists now expect the second quarter to grow at a pace of 10%, and they expect growth for 2021 to be north of 6.5%.\nIn the past decade, only a few quarters gross domestic product growing at even 3%.”\n\nThe premise is that strong “pent up” demand will sustain the economic recovery over the next few years.\nHowever, since market lows in 2020, the market surge has not only recouped all of those losses but has rocketed to all-time highs on expectations of surging earnings growth.\nThe question: How much has gotten priced in?\nA Return To Normalcy\nJust recently, Liz Ann Sonders wrote a piece for Advisor Perspectives. To wit:\n\n“Vaccines and herd immunity continue to bring COVID cases down, and\n the economic reopening continues to kick into a higher gear. Such is whatthe data is starting to show.\n Across economic metrics, from the gross domestic product (GDP) to retail sales and job growth,\nboom conditions are evident\n.”\n\nShe is correct in her statement. However, there is a difference between an“economic boom” and a“recovery.” As shown in the chart of GDP growth below, the U.S. has already experienced a very sharp “economic recovery” from the recessionary lows. (I have included estimates for the rest of 2020, which shows a return to trend growth.)\n\nThe following chart shows the economic recovery against the massive dumps of liquidity pumped into the economy. (Estimates run through the end of 2021 using economist’s assumptions.)\n\nCan’t Recoup Losses\nCertain areas of the economy, like airlines, hotels, and cruise ships, have yet to recover to pre-pandemic levels.However, those industries only make up a relatively small amount of overall economic activity. Furthermore, these industries will continue to struggle for some time as individuals will not take “two vacations” this year since they missed last year. That activity is now forever lost.\nYes, the economy will recover most likely to pre-pandemic levels this year due to stimulus injections, but as discussed previously, what then?\n\n“The biggest problem with more stimulus is the increase in the debt required to fund it.\n There is no historical precedent, anywhere globally, that shows increased debt levels lead to more robust economic growth rates or prosperity.\n Since 1980, the overall increase in debt has surged to levels that currently usurp the entirety of economic growth.\nWith economic growth rates now at the lowest levels on record, the change in debt continues to divert more tax dollars away from productive investments into the service of debt and social welfare.”\n\n\nJust as it is with investing, getting “back to even” is not the same thing as “organic growth.”\nThe Second Derivative\nWhat is shown above is the “second derivative” effect of growth.\n\n“In calculus, the\nsecond derivative\n, or the\nsecond-order derivative\n, of a function f is the derivative of the derivative of f.” – Wikipedia.\n\nIn English, the “second derivative” measures how the rate of change of a quantity is itself changing. Since we measure GDP growth on an annual rate of change basis, the larger the economy grows, the lower the rate of change will be. Here is a simplistic example go GDP growth:\n\nIn year 1, GDP = $1. In the second year, GDP grows to $2. The annual rate of change is 100%. However, in year 3, even though the economy grows to $3, the annual rate of change falls to just 50%.\n\nGiven the long-term historical correlation between economic growth, corporate earnings, and annualized returns, the reversion to trend growth has implications for investors. As Liz notes:\n\n“Using three broad ranges for GDP growth historically, the lowest range (when the economy is barely growing or in recession) is accompanied by the highest annualized stock market performance.\nGDP is only slightly back into positive territory on an annualized basis. However, the strong growth expected in the second quarter will push GDP into the highest zone. At that level, stocks have historically posted a negative annualized return.”\n\n\nThe reason is that once economic growth reaches higher levels, stocks have climbed to levels incorporating those expectations. In other words, when things are as “good as they can get,” stocks begin to reprice for slower future growth rates.\nThat is the phase we are at currently.\nHow Much Pent Up Demand Is There Anyway\nThe main driver of the expected recovery from a “recessionary” low stems from the question of how much “pent up” demand currently exists?\nIf we look at durable goods as an example, such would suggest that much of the demand for long-lasting products got pulled forward by consumers over the last 12-months.\n\nOf course, if we broaden that measure to retails sales which make up ~40% of the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, we see much the same.\n\nGiven PCE, which comprises nearly 70% of GDP, has already recovered much of pandemic-related decline, how much “pent up” demand remains.\n\nHowever, wage growth outside of personal transfer payments (i.e., stimulus) hasn’t recovered. It is impossible to sustain higher rates of economic growth without wage growth.\n\nImportantly, as we saw in January and February following the $900 billion stimulus bill passage, there was a short-lived surge of activity. However, once individuals spent the money, activity quickly faded. We saw the same with retail sales in April following the American Rescue Plan, which sent out $1400 checks.\n\nAfter the $1400 checks get spent, what will be the driver for continued consumption at previous rates? Further, given the impact of a larger economy (as it recovers), the rate of change will decline markedly in the months to come.\nEarnings Growth Inflection\n\n“Earnings growth has a high correlation to stock market performance, but with time lags that are less well-understood. We are about halfway through the first quarter S&P 500 earnings season and so far, the results are exceptionally strong.” – Liz Ann Sonders\n\nThat is correct, and given the high correlation between earnings and market returns, we come back to the same question. Has the advance in the market accounted for the rebound in earnings? More importantly, what happens when that growth reverses?\n\n“Relative to last year’s second-quarter plunge of nearly -31% year-over-year, expectations are that S&P 500 earnings will be up more than 46% in this year’s first quarter. The second quarter will boast a whopping 60% increase. Such should be the inflection point in terms of the year-over-year growth rate.” – Liz Ann Sonders\n\n\nThe problem is the S&P rose to levels that earnings growth will have difficulty supporting, particularly as the stimulus fades from the system. As with economic growth, the 2nd derivative of earnings growth is now a headwind for the markets.\n\nSuch is also the problem of “pulling forward sales.”\nConclusion\nNotably, the outsized growth of the market reflects repetitive interventions into the financial markets by the Fed. Those interventions detached financial asset growth from their long-term correlation to GDP growth, where corporate revenue comes from. Historically, when the S&P 500 becomes separated from economic growth, a reversion occurred.\n\nCurrently, analysts are expecting earnings to surge well above economic growth rates. However, the flaw in the analysis is the assumption earnings growth will continue its current trend.\nWhile there will be an economic recovery to pre-pandemic levels, a recovery is very different from an expansion.\nAs Liz concludes:\n\n“Optimism is extremely elevated.\nSuch is certainly justified by stock market behavior over the past year and recent economic releases.\nBut some curbing of enthusiasm may be warranted given the history of the stock market as an uncanny ‘sniffer-outer’ of economic inflection points.”\n\nAs she goes on to point out, this is not a time for FOMO-driven investment decision-making. The reality is that the supports that drove the economic recovery will not support an ongoing economic expansion. One is self-sustaining organic growth from productive activity, and the other is not.\nThe risk of disappointment is high. And so are the costs of being “wilfully blind” to the dangers.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":487,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":116525210,"gmtCreate":1622813165930,"gmtModify":1634097772010,"author":{"id":"3576118384681891","authorId":"3576118384681891","name":"valueTrader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b20c817213be1647e2dee23f5d62e0d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576118384681891","idStr":"3576118384681891"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>time to buy","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>time to buy","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$time to buy","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5315f8d609cd4dba21eaadb5526d8306","width":"1080","height":"2866"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/116525210","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":469,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}